WorldWideScience

Sample records for based time trends

  1. Instructional Time Trends. Education Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, Julie Rowland

    2015-01-01

    For more than 30 years, Education Commission of the States has tracked instructional time and frequently receives requests for information about policies and trends. In this Education Trends report, Education Commission of the States addresses some of the more frequent questions, including the impact of instructional time on achievement, variation…

  2. Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

    OpenAIRE

    Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.

    2014-01-01

    In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods ...

  3. Reducing preoperative fasting time: A trend based on evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Aguilar-Nascimento, José Eduardo; Dock-Nascimento, Diana Borges

    2010-03-27

    Preoperative fasting is mandatory before anesthesia to reduce the risk of aspiration. However, the prescribed 6-8 h of fasting is usually prolonged to 12-16 h for various reasons. Prolonged fasting triggers a metabolic response that precipitates gluconeogenesis and increases the organic response to trauma. Various randomized trials and meta-analyses have consistently shown that is safe to reduce the preoperative fasting time with a carbohydrate-rich drink up to 2 h before surgery. Benefits related to this shorter preoperative fasting include the reduction of postoperative gastrointestinal discomfort and insulin resistance. New formulas containing amino acids such as glutamine and other peptides are being studied and are promising candidates to be used to reduce preoperative fasting time.

  4. Reducing preoperative fasting time: A trend based on evidence

    OpenAIRE

    de Aguilar-Nascimento, José Eduardo; Dock-Nascimento, Diana Borges

    2010-01-01

    Preoperative fasting is mandatory before anesthesia to reduce the risk of aspiration. However, the prescribed 6-8 h of fasting is usually prolonged to 12-16 h for various reasons. Prolonged fasting triggers a metabolic response that precipitates gluconeogenesis and increases the organic response to trauma. Various randomized trials and meta-analyses have consistently shown that is safe to reduce the preoperative fasting time with a carbohydrate-rich drink up to 2 h before surgery. Benefits re...

  5. Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.

    2014-05-01

    In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods that can analyze multidimensional time series. One important attribute of this method is that it is not dependent on any statistical assumption and does not need local stationarity in the time series. In this paper, it is shown how the FEM-clustering method can be used to locate change points in the trend of temperature time series from in situ observations. This method is applied to the temperature time series of North Carolina (NC) and the results represent region-specific climate variability despite higher frequency harmonics in climatic time series. Next, we investigated the relationship between the climatic indices with the clusters/trends detected based on this clustering method. It appears that the natural variability of climate change in NC during 1950-2009 can be explained mostly by AMO and solar activity.

  6. Google trends: a web-based tool for real-time surveillance of disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carneiro, Herman Anthony; Mylonakis, Eleftherios

    2009-11-15

    Google Flu Trends can detect regional outbreaks of influenza 7-10 days before conventional Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveillance systems. We describe the Google Trends tool, explain how the data are processed, present examples, and discuss its strengths and limitations. Google Trends shows great promise as a timely, robust, and sensitive surveillance system. It is best used for surveillance of epidemics and diseases with high prevalences and is currently better suited to track disease activity in developed countries, because to be most effective, it requires large populations of Web search users. Spikes in search volume are currently hard to interpret but have the benefit of increasing vigilance. Google should work with public health care practitioners to develop specialized tools, using Google Flu Trends as a blueprint, to track infectious diseases. Suitable Web search query proxies for diseases need to be established for specialized tools or syndromic surveillance. This unique and innovative technology takes us one step closer to true real-time outbreak surveillance.

  7. Springtime Peaks and Christmas Troughs: A National Longitudinal Population-Based Study into Suicide Incidence Time Trends in the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofstra, Emma; Elfeddali, Iman; Bakker, Marjan; de Jong, Jacobus J; van Nieuwenhuizen, Chijs; van der Feltz-Cornelis, Christina M

    2018-01-01

    Time trends are one of the most studied phenomena in suicide research; however, evidence for time trends in the Dutch population remains understudied. Insight into time trends can contribute to the development of effective suicide prevention strategies. Time trends in national daily and monthly data of 33,224 suicide events that occurred in the Netherlands from 1995 to 2015 were examined, as well as the influence of age, gender, and province, in a longitudinal population-based design with Poisson regression analyses and Bayesian change point analyses. Suicide incidence among Dutch residents increased from 2007 until 2015 by 38%. Suicide rates peak in spring, up to 8% higher than in summer ( p  trends had differential effects in the Dutch provinces in terms of suicide incidence. Evidence was found for time trends in suicide incidence in the Netherlands. It is recommended to plan (mental) health care services to be available especially at high-risk moments, at spring time, and in the beginning of January. Further research is needed to explore the protective effect of Christmas in suicide incidence.

  8. Incidence and time trends of Herpes zoster in rheumatoid arthritis: a population-based cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veetil, Bharath Manu Akkara; Myasoedova, Elena; Matteson, Eric L.; Gabriel, Sherine E.; Green, Abigail B.; Crowson, Cynthia S.

    2012-01-01

    Objective To determine the incidence, time trends, risk factors and severity of herpes zoster (HZ) in a population-based incidence cohort of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) compared to a group of individuals without RA from the same population. Methods All residents of Olmsted County, MN who first fulfilled 1987 American College of Rheumatology criteria for RA between 1/1/1980 and 12/31/2007 and a cohort of similar residents without RA were assembled and followed by retrospective chart review until death, migration, or 12/31/2008. Results There was no difference in the presence of HZ prior to RA incidence/index date between the cohorts (p=0.85). During follow-up 84 patients with RA (rate: 12.1 per 1000 person-years) and 44 subjects without RA (rate: 5.4 per 1000 person-years) developed HZ. Patients with RA were more likely to develop HZ than those without RA (hazard ratio: 2.4; 95% confidence interval: 1.7, 3.5). Patients diagnosed with RA in 1995–2007 had a higher likelihood of developing HZ than those diagnosed in 1980–1994. Erosive disease, previous joint surgery, use of hydroxychloroquine and corticosteroids were significantly associated with the development of HZ in RA, while the use of methotrexate or biologic agents was not. Complications of HZ occurred at a similar rate in both cohorts. Conclusion The incidence of HZ is increased in RA and has risen in recent years. The increasing incidence of HZ in more recent years is also noted in the general population. RA disease severity is associated with development of HZ. PMID:23281295

  9. Trends in Time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andries van den Broek; Koen Breedveld; Jos de Haan; Joep de Hart; Frank Huysmans

    2004-01-01

    How do the Dutch spend their time? How much time for example do they devote to remunerated work, care, reading or voluntary work? And: how is time structured in Dutch society? To what extent is Sunday still a special day? The Social and Cultural Planning Office has been participating in a

  10. Springtime Peaks and Christmas Troughs: A National Longitudinal Population-Based Study into Suicide Incidence Time Trends in the Netherlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma Hofstra

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundTime trends are one of the most studied phenomena in suicide research; however, evidence for time trends in the Dutch population remains understudied. Insight into time trends can contribute to the development of effective suicide prevention strategies.MethodsTime trends in national daily and monthly data of 33,224 suicide events that occurred in the Netherlands from 1995 to 2015 were examined, as well as the influence of age, gender, and province, in a longitudinal population-based design with Poisson regression analyses and Bayesian change point analyses.ResultsSuicide incidence among Dutch residents increased from 2007 until 2015 by 38%. Suicide rates peak in spring, up to 8% higher than in summer (p < 0.001. Suicide incidence was 42% lower at Christmas, compared to the December-average (IRR = 0.580, p < 0.001. After Christmas, a substantial increase occurred on January 1, which remained high during the first weeks of the new year. Suicide occurred more than twice as often in men than in women. For both genders, the results indicated a spring time peak in suicide incidence and a trough at Christmas. Suicide rates were highest in the elderly (age group, 80+, and no evidence was found of a differential effect by season in the age groups with regard to suicide incidence. No interaction effect was found with regard to province of residence for both season and Christmas, indicating that no evidence was found that these time trends had differential effects in the Dutch provinces in terms of suicide incidence.ConclusionEvidence was found for time trends in suicide incidence in the Netherlands. It is recommended to plan (mental health care services to be available especially at high-risk moments, at spring time, and in the beginning of January. Further research is needed to explore the protective effect of Christmas in suicide incidence.

  11. Doctors' enjoyment of their work and satisfaction with time available for leisure: UK time trend questionnaire-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surman, Geraldine; Lambert, Trevor W; Goldacre, Michael

    2016-04-01

    Doctors' job satisfaction is important to the health service to ensure commitment, effective training, service provision and retention. Job satisfaction matters to doctors for their personal happiness, fulfilment, service to patients and duty to employers. Monitoring job satisfaction trends informs workforce planning. We surveyed UK-trained doctors up to 5 years after graduation for six graduation year cohorts: 1996, 1999, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2012. Doctors scored their job enjoyment (Enjoyment) and satisfaction with time outside work (Leisure) on a scale from 1 (lowest enjoyment/satisfaction) to 10 (highest). Overall, 47% had a high level of Enjoyment (scores 8-10) 1 year after graduation and 56% after 5 years. For Leisure, the corresponding figures were 19% and 37% at 1 and 5 years, respectively. For Leisure at 1 year, high scores were given by about 10% in the 1990s, rising to about 25% in the mid-2000s. Low scores (1-3) for Enjoyment were given by 15% of qualifiers of 1996, falling to 5% by 2008; corresponding figures for Leisure were 42% and 19%. At 5 years, the corresponding figures were 6% and 4%, and 23% and 17%. Enjoyment and Leisure were scored higher by general practitioners than doctors in other specialties. Both measures varied little by sex, ethnicity or medical school attended. Scores for Enjoyment were generally high; those for Leisure were lower. Policy initiatives should address why this aspect of satisfaction is low, particularly in the first year after graduation but also among hospital doctors 5 years after graduation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  12. Contrasting trends in light pollution across Europe based on satellite observed night time lights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennie, Jonathan; Davies, Thomas W; Duffy, James P; Inger, Richard; Gaston, Kevin J

    2014-01-21

    Since the 1970s nighttime satellite images of the Earth from space have provided a striking illustration of the extent of artificial light. Meanwhile, growing awareness of adverse impacts of artificial light at night on scientific astronomy, human health, ecological processes and aesthetic enjoyment of the night sky has led to recognition of light pollution as a significant global environmental issue. Links between economic activity, population growth and artificial light are well documented in rapidly developing regions. Applying a novel method to analysis of satellite images of European nighttime lights over 15 years, we show that while the continental trend is towards increasing brightness, some economically developed regions show more complex patterns with large areas decreasing in observed brightness over this period. This highlights that opportunities exist to constrain and even reduce the environmental impact of artificial light pollution while delivering cost and energy-saving benefits.

  13. Time trends and risk factors for diabetes mellitus in dogs: analysis of veterinary medical data base records (1970-1999).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guptill, L; Glickman, L; Glickman, N

    2003-05-01

    The objectives of the study were to identify recent trends in the prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) in dogs and to identify host risk factors. Veterinary Medical Data Base (VMDB) electronic records of 6860 dogs with a diagnosis of DM (VMDB code 870178500) between 1970 and 1999 were evaluated to determine time trends. Records of 6707 dogs with DM and 6707 frequency matched dogs with any diagnosis other than DM from the same teaching hospitals in the same year, selected as controls, were evaluated for risk factor analysis. The prevalence of DM in dogs presented to veterinary teaching hospitals increased from 19 cases per 10,000 admissions per year in 1970 to 64 cases per 10,000 in 1999, while the case-fatality rate decreased from 37% to 5%. The hospital prevalence of DM was consistently greater over time in older compared with younger dogs with the highest prevalence occurring in dogs 10-15 years of age. Dogs weighing risk of DM compared with heavier dogs. Female dogs had an increased risk of DM compared with males (P<0.001).

  14. Potentially avoidable hospitalizations in five European countries in 2009 and time trends from 2002 to 2009 based on administrative data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thygesen, Lau C; Christiansen, Terkel; Garcia-Armesto, Sandra

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Potentially avoidable hospitalizations in chronic conditions are used to evaluate health-care performance. However, evidence comparing different countries at small geographical areas is still scarce. The aim of the present study is to describe and discuss differences in rates and time......-trends across health-care areas from five European countries. METHODS: Observational, ecological study, on virtually all discharges produced in five European countries between 2002 and 2009. Potentially avoidable hospitalizations were operationally defined as a joint indicator composed of six chronic conditions......). Income and educational level, hospital utilization propensity, and region of residence were found to be associated with avoidable admissions. CONCLUSION: The dramatic variation across countries, beyond age and sex differences, and its consistency over time, implies systemic, although differential...

  15. Markov Trends in Macroeconomic Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    Paap, Richard

    1997-01-01

    textabstractMany macroeconomic time series are characterised by long periods of positive growth, expansion periods, and short periods of negative growth, recessions. A popular model to describe this phenomenon is the Markov trend, which is a stochastic segmented trend where the slope depends on the value of an unobserved two-state first-order Markov process. The two slopes of the Markov trend describe the growth rates in the two phases of the business cycle. This thesis deals with a Bayesian ...

  16. Markov Trends in Macroeconomic Time Series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Paap (Richard)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractMany macroeconomic time series are characterised by long periods of positive growth, expansion periods, and short periods of negative growth, recessions. A popular model to describe this phenomenon is the Markov trend, which is a stochastic segmented trend where the slope depends on the

  17. Bullying and victimization among 8-year-old children: a 16-year population-based time-trend study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilola, Anna-Marja; Sourander, Andre

    2013-06-01

    Bullying has been recognized as a major social and health problem among children. There are only few studies about changes in the prevalence of bullying behaviour, especially among younger children. To examine changes in the prevalence of bullying behaviour at three time-points, 1989, 1999 and 2005, among 8-year-old children living in south-western Finland. Three representative cross-sectional samples of 8-year-old children from south-western Finland were compared. All children born in 1981 (n = 1038), 1991 (n = 1035) and 1997 (n = 1030) and living in selected school districts were included in the study samples. The sampling, procedure and methods were similar at all three time-points. The participation rate varied from 84% to 96%. Children, parents and teachers filled in questionnaires asking about bullying and victimization. In 2005, statistically significantly fewer boys were victimized than in 1989. Among girls, there was a decreasing trend of victimization but this was statistically significant only in parental reports. More girls were frequent victims in 2005 than in 1989. Among boys, the number of bullies also decreased. However, teachers found more bullies among girls in 2005 than in 1989. There was a slight decrease in bullying behaviour among boys from 1989 to 2005. The main finding among girls was an almost twofold increase in teacher-reported bullies (from 5% to 9%). Bullying and its prevention are major challenges for educational and school health services. Peer relationships and a non-violent school environment are major challenges of children's lives; therefore, continuous monitoring of bullying behaviour is important.

  18. Factors influencing junior doctors' choices of future specialty: trends over time and demographics based on results from UK national surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Fay; Lambert, Trevor W; Goldacre, Michael J

    2015-10-01

    To study trends in factors influencing junior doctors' choice of future specialty. Respondents were asked whether each of 15 factors had a great deal of influence on their career choice, a little influence or no influence on it. Percentages are reported of those who specified that a factor had a great deal of influence on their career choice. UK. A total of 15,765 UK-trained doctors who graduated between 1999 and 2012. Questions about career choices and factors which may have influenced those choices, in particular comparing doctors who qualified in 2008-2012 with those who qualified in 1999-2002. Enthusiasm for and commitment to the specialty was a greater influence on career choice in the 2008-2012 qualifiers (81%) than those of 1999-2002 (64%), as was consideration of their domestic circumstances (43% compared with 20%). Prospects for promotion were less important to recent cohorts (16%) than older cohorts (21%), as were financial prospects (respectively, 10% and 14%). Domestic circumstances and working hours were considered more important, and financial prospects less important, by women than men. Inclination before medical school was rated as important by 41% of doctors who were over 30 years old, compared with 13% of doctors who were under 21, at the time of starting medical school. The increasing importance of both domestic circumstances and enthusiasm for their specialty choice in recent cohorts suggest that today's young doctors prize both work-life balance and personal fulfilment at work more highly than did their predecessors. The differences in motivations of older and younger generations of doctors, men and women, and doctors who start medical school relatively late are worthy of note. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

  19. Trend Filtering Techniques for Time Series Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    López Arias, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Time series can be found almost everywhere in our lives and because of this being capable of analysing them is an important task. Most of the time series we can think of are quite noisy, being this one of the main problems to extract information from them. In this work we use Trend Filtering techniques to try to remove this noise from a series and understand the underlying trend of the series, that gives us information about the behaviour of the series aside from the particular...

  20. Time trends in social class mortality: differentials in the Netherlands, 1820-1920: an assessment based on indirect estimation techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Poppel, F.W.A.; Jennissen, R.; Mandemakers, K.

    2009-01-01

    The question whether socioeconomic status gradients in adult mortality have changed over a broad historical period has become an important political and theoretical issue but is hard to test. In this article we study long-term trends in social inequality in adult mortality by using data for 2 (of

  1. Time trends in human fecundability in Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Rylander, Lars; Carstensen, Lisbeth

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Trends in biologic fertility are elusive. Possible negative trends in male reproductive health are still debated, and their effect on human fertility might be negligible. Time-to-pregnancy (TTP) is a functional measure of couple fecundability. METHODS: We analyzed data on TTP among 832......,000 primiparous women 20 years of age and older in the nationwide Swedish Medical Birth Registry from 1983 through 2002. This age restriction led to an exclusion of 10% of primiparous pregnancies. Subfertility (TTP > or =1 year) was analyzed as a function of maternal age, calendar time at initiation of attempt...... diseases, to changes in sexual behavior induced by socioeconomic conditions, or to broader biologic or educational trends....

  2. Quantitative assessment of time trends: influence of time window selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prosek, A.; Mavko, B.

    2004-01-01

    Quantitative assessment of thermalhydraulic system code predictions is today indispensable for code verification and validation. It is also needed for standard nuclear power plant nodalization development and qualification. Initially the Fast Fourier Transform Based Method (FFTBM) was proposed for accuracy quantification. Later a few new methods were proposed like Automated Code Assessment Program (ACAP) and Stochastic Approximation Ratio Based Method (SARBM). Recently, the review of FFTBM applications was done and reference FFTBM database was proposed consisting of most accurate international standard problems, standard problem exercises or organization calculations as judged by FFTBM. The calculations were presented by primary pressure average amplitude and total accuracy for the whole transient duration. The objective of this study was to investigate how the time window selection influences on the results. For the quantitative assessment various BETHSY experiments and Mochovce plant transient were selected and calculations obtained by RELAP5/MOD3.2 and RELAP5/MOD3.2.2 code, respectively. In the accuracy analysis each transient is subdivided into phases that define the time window and time interval. The time window is time duration of phase. The time interval is time window from the start time of first phase to the end time of selected phase. The analysis was performed for moving time window (sequence of narrow time windows) and increasing time interval (sequence of time intervals). The results for moving time window showed that accuracy measures were very time dependent and they efficiently showed the instantaneous discrepancies occurring in the calculated signal. They also give picture how complex is the transient. The average amplitude (AA) was compared with relative error function (the difference between calculated and measured signal divided by measured signal) and SARBM results. The trends for accuracy measures were similar. These results suggest that for

  3. In search of functional association from time-series microarray data based on the change trend and level of gene expression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeng An-Ping

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The increasing availability of time-series expression data opens up new possibilities to study functional linkages of genes. Present methods used to infer functional linkages between genes from expression data are mainly based on a point-to-point comparison. Change trends between consecutive time points in time-series data have been so far not well explored. Results In this work we present a new method based on extracting main features of the change trend and level of gene expression between consecutive time points. The method, termed as trend correlation (TC, includes two major steps: 1, calculating a maximal local alignment of change trend score by dynamic programming and a change trend correlation coefficient between the maximal matched change levels of each gene pair; 2, inferring relationships of gene pairs based on two statistical extraction procedures. The new method considers time shifts and inverted relationships in a similar way as the local clustering (LC method but the latter is merely based on a point-to-point comparison. The TC method is demonstrated with data from yeast cell cycle and compared with the LC method and the widely used Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC based clustering method. The biological significance of the gene pairs is examined with several large-scale yeast databases. Although the TC method predicts an overall lower number of gene pairs than the other two methods at a same p-value threshold, the additional number of gene pairs inferred by the TC method is considerable: e.g. 20.5% compared with the LC method and 49.6% with the PCC method for a p-value threshold of 2.7E-3. Moreover, the percentage of the inferred gene pairs consistent with databases by our method is generally higher than the LC method and similar to the PCC method. A significant number of the gene pairs only inferred by the TC method are process-identity or function-similarity pairs or have well-documented biological

  4. Longitudinal evaluation of a World Wide Web-based antimicrobial stewardship program: assessing factors associated with approval patterns and trends over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venugopal, Vidya; Lehmann, Christoph U; Diener-West, Marie; Agwu, Allison L

    2014-02-01

    The Johns Hopkins Children's Medical and Surgery Center developed a Web-based Antimicrobial Stewardship Program (ASP) in 2005. The present study aimed to assess longitudinal antimicrobial request and approval patterns for this ASP. We analyzed a total of 16,229 antimicrobial requests for 3,542 patients between June 1, 2005, and June 30, 2009. Antimicrobial approval was the outcome of interest. We assessed gaming by studying trends in automatically approved requests. Nonparametric tests for trend were performed to detect changes in approval patterns. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with approval. The vast majority (91.3%) of antimicrobial requests were approved, with an increase of 6.1% over time (P Web-based ASP allows management of a large number of antimicrobial requests, without apparent gaming. Observed differences in approval patterns based on patient, requestor, and antimicrobial factors may inform the development of ASPs and evaluation of provider education and training. Copyright © 2014 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. A practical procedure for the selection of time-to-failure models based on the assessment of trends in maintenance data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Louit, D.M. [Komatsu Chile, Av. Americo Vespucio 0631, Quilicura, Santiago (Chile)], E-mail: rpascual@ing.puc.cl; Pascual, R. [Centro de Mineria, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Av. Vicuna Mackenna 4860, Santiago (Chile); Jardine, A.K.S. [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto, 5 King' s College Road, Toronto, Ont., M5S 3G8 (Canada)

    2009-10-15

    Many times, reliability studies rely on false premises such as independent and identically distributed time between failures assumption (renewal process). This can lead to erroneous model selection for the time to failure of a particular component or system, which can in turn lead to wrong conclusions and decisions. A strong statistical focus, a lack of a systematic approach and sometimes inadequate theoretical background seem to have made it difficult for maintenance analysts to adopt the necessary stage of data testing before the selection of a suitable model. In this paper, a framework for model selection to represent the failure process for a component or system is presented, based on a review of available trend tests. The paper focuses only on single-time-variable models and is primarily directed to analysts responsible for reliability analyses in an industrial maintenance environment. The model selection framework is directed towards the discrimination between the use of statistical distributions to represent the time to failure ('renewal approach'); and the use of stochastic point processes ('repairable systems approach'), when there may be the presence of system ageing or reliability growth. An illustrative example based on failure data from a fleet of backhoes is included.

  6. Time Trends over 16 Years in Incidence-Rates of Autism Spectrum Disorders across the Lifespan Based on Nationwide Danish Register Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Christina Mohr; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Lauritsen, Marlene Briciet

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated time trends and associated factors of incidence rates of diagnosed autism spectrum disorders (ASD) across the lifespan from 1995 to 2010, using data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry. First time diagnosis of childhood autism, atypical autism, Asperger's syndrome, or pervasive developmental…

  7. Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

    2013-01-01

    Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

  8. Seasonal adjustment methods and real time trend-cycle estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Bee Dagum, Estela

    2016-01-01

    This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportat...

  9. Time trends in axilla management among early breast cancer patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gondos, Adam; Jansen, Lina; Heil, Joerg

    2016-01-01

    for a comparative study of axillary management trends among patients with first non-metastatic breast cancer who were not selected for neoadjuvant therapy during the last decade. We used an additional short questionnaire to compare clinical care patterns in 2014. Results Patients treated in cancer centers were......Background We examined time trends in axilla management among patients with early breast cancer in European clinical settings. Material and methods EUROCANPlatform partners, including population-based and cancer center-specific registries, provided routinely available clinical cancer registry data...

  10. Time Trends in Bullying Behavior in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieno, Alessio; Lenzi, Michela; Gini, Gianluca; Pozzoli, Tiziana; Cavallo, Franco; Santinello, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    Background: Given the severity of outcomes associated with involvement in bullying and the resources spent in an effort to reduce its prevalence, it is important to investigate trends in the bullying's occurrence. The main aim of this study was to identify trends from 2002 to 2010 in prevalence of bullying and victimization among Italian…

  11. Investment innovation trends: Factor-based investing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanja Centineo

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This article shows that it can take a long period of time until research knowledge finds its application in practice and get disseminated as innovation trend. Factor-based investing is such an example. Having its developing roots in the nineties, it took more than two decades until this approach was detected by the by investment community. The goal of this article is to recall the definition of factor investing, present its historical evolvement and motivate its recent break-through and current trend among investment practitioners (known also under the notion smart beta. It aims at familiarizing with this investment approach from a practical perspective and highlighting its diversifying benefits in a portfolio context with the potential to outperform the market on risk-adjusted basis.

  12. Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Chaolong

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM (1,1 is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changing trend of track irregularity at a fixed measuring point; the stochastic linear AR, Kalman filtering model, and artificial neural network model are applied to predict the short-term changing trend of track irregularity at unit section. Both long-term and short-term changes prove that the model is effective and can achieve the expected accuracy.

  13. Time trends in physical activity in leisure time in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Christina Bjørk; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Helge, Jørn Wulff

    2010-01-01

    To examine time trends in leisure-time physical activity in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005.......To examine time trends in leisure-time physical activity in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005....

  14. Trend Over Time for Cholecystectomy following the Introduction of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2018-03-05

    Mar 5, 2018 ... Trend Over Time for Cholecystectomy following the Introduction of. Laparoscopy in a Nigerian Tertiary ... How to cite this article: Adisa AO, Lawal OO, Adejuyigbe O. Trend over time for cholecystectomy following .... The challenges with record keeping in the era of open cholecystectomy in our center made it ...

  15. THE VEGETATION TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN BEIJING-TIANJING-HEIBEI REGION FROM 1982 TO 2013 BASED ON TIME SERIES GIMMS NDVI3g

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Liu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Vegetation plays a leading role in ecosystems. Plant communities are the main components of ecosystems. Green plants in ecosystems are the primary producers, and they provide the living organic matter for the survival of other organisms. The dynamics of most landscapes are driven by both natural processes and human activities. In this study, the growing season GIMMS NDVI3g and climatic data were used to analyse the vegetation trends and drivers in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1982 to 2013. Result shows that, the vegetation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows overall restoration and partial degradation trend. The significant restoration region accounts for 61.5 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, while the significant degradation region accounts for 2.1 %. The dominant climatic factor for time series NDVI were analyzed using the multi-linear regression model. Vegetation growth in 17.9 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is dominated by temperature, 35.5 % is dominated by precipitation, and 11.68 % is dominated by solar radiance. Human activities play important role for vegetation restoration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, where the large scale forest restoration programs are the main human activities, such as the three-north shelterbelt construction project, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei sandstorm source control project and grain for green projects.

  16. Time trends in the natural dizygotic twinning rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derom, Catherine; Gielen, Marij; Peeters, Hilde; Frijns, Jean-Pierre; Zeegers, Maurice P A

    2011-08-01

    The natural dizygotic (DZ) twinning rate has been proposed as a reliable and useful measure of human fecundity, if adjusted for maternal age at twin birth. The aim of this study was to analyze age-adjusted trends in natural DZ twinning rates over the past 40 years using data from the 'East Flanders Prospective Twin Survey (EFPTS)'. This study involved 4835 naturally conceived twin pregnancies between 1969 and 2009 from the population-based Belgian 'EFPTS'. Age-adjusted trends in the incidence of natural DZ twin pregnancies were calculated using a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution. Both the natural DZ twinning rates and maternal age at twin birth increased in a linear fashion from 1969 to 2009. When age-adjusted, we found that the trend in the natural DZ twinning rate was stable during the whole time period. According to our population-based data and after age-adjustment, a stable natural DZ twinning rate could be observed over the last four decades. Under the assumption that the spontaneous DZ twinning rate is a sensor of fecundity, this indicates a stable 'high' fecundity for this population.

  17. Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi

    2017-04-01

    Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological

  18. Survival after Abdominoperineal and Sphincter-Preserving Resection in Nonmetastatic Rectal Cancer: A Population-Based Time-Trend and Propensity Score-Matched SEER Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rene Warschkow

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Abdominoperineal resection (APR has been associated with impaired survival in nonmetastatic rectal cancer patients. It is unclear whether this adverse outcome is due to the surgical procedure itself or is a consequence of tumor-related characteristics. Study Design. Patients were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The impact of APR compared to coloanal anastomosis (CAA on survival was assessed by Cox regression and propensity-score matching. Results. In 36,488 patients with rectal cancer resection, the APR rate declined from 31.8% in 1998 to 19.2% in 2011, with a significant trend change in 2004 at 21.6% (P<0.001. To minimize a potential time-trend bias, survival analysis was limited to patients diagnosed after 2004. APR was associated with an increased risk of cancer-specific mortality after unadjusted analysis (HR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.28–2.03, P<0.01 and multivariable adjustment (HR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.10–1.76, P<0.01. After optimal adjustment of highly biased patient characteristics by propensity-score matching, APR was not identified as a risk factor for cancer-specific mortality (HR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.56–1.29, P=0.456. Conclusions. The current propensity score-adjusted analysis provides evidence that worse oncological outcomes in patients undergoing APR compared to CAA are caused by different patient characteristics and not by the surgical procedure itself.

  19. Time trends & mechanism of soil acidification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wesselink, L.G.

    1994-01-01

    The effects of acid atmospheric deposition on forest ecosystems have been studied intensively in the past two decades. Measurements of element budgets in forested ecosystems throughout the world have shown that acid deposition may deplete stores of exchangeable base cations in the soil,

  20. Time trend in diagnosing dementia in secondary care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Phung, Thien Kieu Thi; Waltoft, Berit Lindum; Kessing, Lars Vedel

    2010-01-01

    To study the trend of diagnosing dementia in the secondary health care sector over time, we conducted a nationwide longitudinal study of the incidence and prevalence of registered dementia diagnoses in the Danish national hospital registers.......To study the trend of diagnosing dementia in the secondary health care sector over time, we conducted a nationwide longitudinal study of the incidence and prevalence of registered dementia diagnoses in the Danish national hospital registers....

  1. Parkinson's disease incidence: magnitude, comparability, time trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Pedro-Cuesta, J; Stawiarz, L

    1991-11-01

    In this study, we reviewed incidence surveys of Parkinson's Disease (PD) from all over the world, published during the period 1945-1989, using reported quality criteria. In addition, we compared age-specific PD incidences from selected observations by stratified analysis. Crude incidences were described for 11 populations, and age-specific incidences for three of them: Iceland, Rochester (Minn, USA), and Turku (Finland). Effect modification by age was detected: a) by comparing incidences by age at diagnosis with incidence by age at clinical disease onset; and b) when only data on onset of disease was computed. For disease onsets, the incidences in Rochester for the period 1955-1966, and in Turku (Finland) during the interval 1968-1970, were lower than that in Iceland for the period 1958-1960: RR = 0.58 95% CI (0.41, 0.83), and RR = 0.67 95% CI (0.51, 0.87), respectively. For the Rochester population aged 40-69 years, a statistically significant 56% decrease in the incidences of Parkinsonism onsets during the period 1945-1966 was found. Validity problems in comparing PD incidences and the role of PD underdiagnosis were emphasized. We concluded that: a) stratified analysis is more suitable than standardization when comparing incidences for etiological purposes; b) the incidence of PD was highest in Iceland; and c) in Rochester, PD incidence under the age of 70 decreased with time.

  2. Time-varying trends of global vegetation activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, N.; Feng, X.; Fu, B.

    2016-12-01

    Vegetation plays an important role in regulating the energy change, water cycle and biochemical cycle in terrestrial ecosystems. Monitoring the dynamics of vegetation activity and understanding their driving factors have been an important issue in global change research. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), an indicator of vegetation activity, has been widely used in investigating vegetation changes at regional and global scales. Most studies utilized linear regression or piecewise linear regression approaches to obtain an averaged changing rate over a certain time span, with an implicit assumption that the trend didn't change over time during that period. However, no evidence shows that this assumption is right for the non-linear and non-stationary NDVI time series. In this study, we adopted the multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD) method to extract the time-varying trends of NDVI from original signals without any a priori assumption of their functional form. Our results show that vegetation trends are spatially and temporally non-uniform during 1982-2013. Most vegetated area exhibited greening trends in the 1980s. Nevertheless, the area with greening trends decreased over time since the early 1990s, and the greening trends have stalled or even reversed in many places. Regions with browning trends were mainly located in southern low latitudes in the 1980s, whose area decreased before the middle 1990s and then increased at an accelerated rate. The greening-to-browning reversals were widespread across all continents except Oceania (43% of the vegetated areas), most of which happened after the middle 1990s. In contrast, the browning-to-greening reversals occurred in smaller area and earlier time. The area with monotonic greening and browning trends accounted for 33% and 5% of the vegetated area, respectively. By performing partial correlation analyses between NDVI and climatic elements (temperature, precipitation and cloud cover

  3. An Innovative Fuzzy-Logic-Based Methodology for Trend Identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xin; Tsoukalas, Lefteri H.; Wei, Thomas Y.C.; Reifman, Jaques

    2001-01-01

    A new fuzzy-logic-based methodology for on-line signal trend identification is introduced. The methodology may be used for detecting the onset of nuclear power plant (NPP) transients at the earliest possible time and could be of great benefit to diagnostic, maintenance, and performance-monitoring programs. Although signal trend identification is complicated by the presence of noise, fuzzy methods can help capture important features of on-line signals, integrate the information included in these features, and classify incoming NPP signals into increasing, decreasing, and steady-state trend categories. A computer program named PROTREN is developed and tested for the purpose of verifying this methodology using NPP and simulation data. The results indicate that the new fuzzy-logic-based methodology is capable of detecting transients accurately, it identifies trends reliably and does not misinterpret a steady-state signal as a transient one

  4. Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai

    2017-01-01

    We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; pZika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R 2 =0.345; ppandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.

  5. Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus...... as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...... of endocrine disrupters....

  6. Time trends in biological fertility in Western Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joffe, Michael; Holmes, Jane; Jensen, Tina Kold

    2013-01-01

    analyses demonstrated that this rise was visible as a male cohort effect for both TTP and contraceptive failure. On the other hand, the female birth cohort effect showed a slight fall in the first half of the study period for both TTP and contraceptive failure. As a period effect, fertility remained...... generally stable, the slight trends in TTP and contraceptive failure being in opposite directions, likely indicating an artifact. The rising trend accords with most previous evidence. The increasing trend in male fertility does not contradict the previously reported semen quality deterioration, the effects......We investigated trends in biological fertility in a comprehensive analysis of 5 major European data sets with data on time to pregnancy (TTP) and proportion of contraceptive failures. In particular, we distinguished a period effect from a birth cohort effect (lifelong tendency) in both sexes...

  7. United States Forest Disturbance Trends Observed Using Landsat Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masek, Jeffrey G.; Goward, Samuel N.; Kennedy, Robert E.; Cohen, Warren B.; Moisen, Gretchen G.; Schleeweis, Karen; Huang, Chengquan

    2013-01-01

    Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing U.S. land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest disturbance across the conterminous United States for 1985-2005. The geographic sample design used a probability-based scheme to encompass major forest types and maximize geographic dispersion. For each sample location disturbance was identified in the Landsat series using the Vegetation Change Tracker (VCT) algorithm. The NAFD analysis indicates that, on average, 2.77 Mha/yr of forests were disturbed annually, representing 1.09%/yr of US forestland. These satellite-based national disturbance rates estimates tend to be lower than those derived from land management inventories, reflecting both methodological and definitional differences. In particular the VCT approach used with a biennial time step has limited sensitivity to low-intensity disturbances. Unlike prior satellite studies, our biennial forest disturbance rates vary by nearly a factor of two between high and low years. High western US disturbance rates were associated with active fire years and insect activity, while variability in the east is more strongly related to harvest rates in managed forests. We note that generating a geographic sample based on representing forest type and variability may be problematic since the spatial pattern of disturbance does not necessarily correlate with forest type. We also find that the prevalence of diffuse, non-stand clearing disturbance in US forests makes the application of a biennial geographic sample problematic. Future satellite-based studies of disturbance at regional and national scales should focus on wall-to-wall analyses with annual time step for improved accuracy.

  8. Detecting cognizable trends of gene expression in a time series ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Genetics; Volume 95; Issue 3. Detecting cognizable trends of gene expression in a time series RNA-sequencing experiment: a bootstrap approach. SHATAKSHEE CHATTERJEE PARTHA P. MAJUMDER PRIYANKA PANDEY. RESEARCH ARTICLE Volume 95 Issue 3 September 2016 pp 587- ...

  9. Vesicular stomatitis forecasting based on Google Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, JianYing; Zhang, Tong; Lu, Yi; Zhou, GuangYa; Chen, Qin; Niu, Bing

    2018-01-01

    Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is an important viral disease of livestock. The main feature of VS is irregular blisters that occur on the lips, tongue, oral mucosa, hoof crown and nipple. Humans can also be infected with vesicular stomatitis and develop meningitis. This study analyses 2014 American VS outbreaks in order to accurately predict vesicular stomatitis outbreak trends. American VS outbreaks data were collected from OIE. The data for VS keywords were obtained by inputting 24 disease-related keywords into Google Trends. After calculating the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, it was found that there was a relationship between outbreaks and keywords derived from Google Trends. Finally, the predicted model was constructed based on qualitative classification and quantitative regression. For the regression model, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the predicted outbreaks and actual outbreaks are 0.953 and 0.948, respectively. For the qualitative classification model, we constructed five classification predictive models and chose the best classification predictive model as the result. The results showed, SN (sensitivity), SP (specificity) and ACC (prediction accuracy) values of the best classification predictive model are 78.52%,72.5% and 77.14%, respectively. This study applied Google search data to construct a qualitative classification model and a quantitative regression model. The results show that the method is effective and that these two models obtain more accurate forecast.

  10. Vesicular stomatitis forecasting based on Google Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yi; Zhou, GuangYa; Chen, Qin

    2018-01-01

    Background Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is an important viral disease of livestock. The main feature of VS is irregular blisters that occur on the lips, tongue, oral mucosa, hoof crown and nipple. Humans can also be infected with vesicular stomatitis and develop meningitis. This study analyses 2014 American VS outbreaks in order to accurately predict vesicular stomatitis outbreak trends. Methods American VS outbreaks data were collected from OIE. The data for VS keywords were obtained by inputting 24 disease-related keywords into Google Trends. After calculating the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, it was found that there was a relationship between outbreaks and keywords derived from Google Trends. Finally, the predicted model was constructed based on qualitative classification and quantitative regression. Results For the regression model, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the predicted outbreaks and actual outbreaks are 0.953 and 0.948, respectively. For the qualitative classification model, we constructed five classification predictive models and chose the best classification predictive model as the result. The results showed, SN (sensitivity), SP (specificity) and ACC (prediction accuracy) values of the best classification predictive model are 78.52%,72.5% and 77.14%, respectively. Conclusion This study applied Google search data to construct a qualitative classification model and a quantitative regression model. The results show that the method is effective and that these two models obtain more accurate forecast. PMID:29385198

  11. Vesicular stomatitis forecasting based on Google Trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JianYing Wang

    Full Text Available Vesicular stomatitis (VS is an important viral disease of livestock. The main feature of VS is irregular blisters that occur on the lips, tongue, oral mucosa, hoof crown and nipple. Humans can also be infected with vesicular stomatitis and develop meningitis. This study analyses 2014 American VS outbreaks in order to accurately predict vesicular stomatitis outbreak trends.American VS outbreaks data were collected from OIE. The data for VS keywords were obtained by inputting 24 disease-related keywords into Google Trends. After calculating the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, it was found that there was a relationship between outbreaks and keywords derived from Google Trends. Finally, the predicted model was constructed based on qualitative classification and quantitative regression.For the regression model, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the predicted outbreaks and actual outbreaks are 0.953 and 0.948, respectively. For the qualitative classification model, we constructed five classification predictive models and chose the best classification predictive model as the result. The results showed, SN (sensitivity, SP (specificity and ACC (prediction accuracy values of the best classification predictive model are 78.52%,72.5% and 77.14%, respectively.This study applied Google search data to construct a qualitative classification model and a quantitative regression model. The results show that the method is effective and that these two models obtain more accurate forecast.

  12. Three measures of longevity: time trends and record values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Canudas-Romo, V

    2010-01-01

    This article examines the trend over time in the measures of “typical” longevity experienced by members of a population: life expectancy at birth, and the median and modal ages at death. The article also analyzes trends in record values observed for all three measures. The record life expectancy...... at birth increased from a level of 44 years in Sweden in 1840 to 82 years in Japan in 2005. The record median age at death shows increasing patterns similar to those observed in life expectancy at birth. However, the record modal age at death changes very little until the second half of the twentieth...

  13. Computer based training: Technology and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neal, A.F.

    1986-01-01

    Computer Based Training (CBT) offers great potential for revolutionizing the training environment. Tremendous advances in computer cost performance, instructional design science, and authoring systems have combined to put CBT within the reach of all. The ability of today's CBT systems to implement powerful training strategies, simulate complex processes and systems, and individualize and control the training process make it certain that CBT will now, at long last, live up to its potential. This paper reviews the major technologies and trends involved and offers some suggestions for getting started in CBT

  14. A school based study of time trends in food habits and their relation to socio-economic status among Norwegian adolescents, 2001-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fismen, Anne-Siri; Smith, Otto Robert Frans; Torsheim, Torbjørn; Samdal, Oddrun

    2014-09-25

    In recent years, adolescents' food habits have become a major source of concern, and substantial policy and intervention efforts have been made to influence adolescents to consume more fruit and vegetables and less sweets and soft drink. Particular attention has been devoted to the social gradient in food habits, aiming to reduce dietary inequality. However, few internationally published studies have evaluated trends in teenagers' food habits, or investigated how dietary inequalities develop. We used Norwegian cross-sectional data from the international Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children (HBSC) study, collected via three nationally representative and comparable questionnaire surveys in 2001, 2005 and 2009. Food habits were identified by students' consumption of fruit, vegetables, sweets and sugar rich soft drink. Socio-economic status (SES) was measured with the Family Affluence Scale (FAS). Multilevel logistic regression was used to analyze the data. The analyses indicated an overall positive trend in food habits among adolescents in Norway. Students were more likely to consume fruit (OR 1.76, CI 1.61-1.92) and vegetables (OR 1.51, CI 1.37-1.66) daily in 2005 as compared to 2001, and were less likely to consume sweets (OR 0.58, CI 0.51-0.66 resp. OR 0.77, CI 0.67-0.90) and soft drink (OR 0.55, CI 0.49-0.62 resp. OR 0.84, CI 0.73-0.96) daily when comparing, respectively, 2005 with 2001 and 2009 with 2005. Across all survey years, students with higher SES were more likely to eat fruit (OR 1.47, CI 1.32-1.65) and vegetables (OR 1.40, CI 1.24-1.58) daily than did students with lower SES. Our analyses indicated that the socio-economic differences were stable in the period 2002 - 2010, with uniform improvement in fruit and vegetable consumption across all SES levels. No significant associations between SES and intake of sweets and sugar-added soft drink were found. The study identifies an overall improvement in diet among adolescents over a period characterized by

  15. Large scale variability, long-term trends and extreme events in total ozone over the northern mid-latitudes based on satellite time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieder, H. E.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Ribatet, M.; Davison, A. C.

    2009-04-01

    Various generations of satellites (e.g. TOMS, GOME, OMI) made spatial datasets of column ozone available to the scientific community. This study has a special focus on column ozone over the northern mid-latitudes. Tools from geostatistics and extreme value theory are applied to analyze variability, long-term trends and frequency distributions of extreme events in total ozone. In a recent case study (Rieder et al., 2009) new tools from extreme value theory (Coles, 2001; Ribatet, 2007) have been applied to the world's longest total ozone record from Arosa, Switzerland (e.g. Staehelin 1998a,b), in order to describe extreme events in low and high total ozone. Within the current study this analysis is extended to satellite datasets for the northern mid-latitudes. Further special emphasis is given on patterns and spatial correlations and the influence of changes in atmospheric dynamics (e.g. tropospheric and lower stratospheric pressure systems) on column ozone. References: Coles, S.: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer Series in Statistics, ISBN:1852334592, Springer, Berlin, 2001. Ribatet, M.: POT: Modelling peaks over a threshold, R News, 7, 34-36, 2007. Rieder, H.E., Staehelin, J., Maeder, J.A., Ribatet, M., Stübi, R., Weihs, P., Holawe, F., Peter, T., and Davison, A.C.: From ozone mini holes and mini highs towards extreme value theory: New insights from extreme events and non stationarity, submitted to J. Geophys. Res., 2009. Staehelin, J., Kegel, R., and Harris, N. R.: Trend analysis of the homogenized total ozone series of Arosa (Switzerland), 1929-1996, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D7), 8389-8400, doi:10.1029/97JD03650, 1998a. Staehelin, J., Renaud, A., Bader, J., McPeters, R., Viatte, P., Hoegger, B., Bugnion, V., Giroud, M., and Schill, H.: Total ozone series at Arosa (Switzerland): Homogenization and data comparison, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D5), 5827-5842, doi:10.1029/97JD02402, 1998b.

  16. Extending the trend vector: The trend matrix and sample-based partial least squares

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheridan, Robert P.; Nachbar, Robert B.; Bush, Bruce L.

    1994-06-01

    Trend vector analysis [Carhart, R.E. et al., J. Chem. Inf. Comput. Sci., 25 (1985) 64], in combination with topological descriptors such as atom pairs, has proved useful in drug discovery for ranking large collections of chemical compounds in order of predicted biological activity. The compounds with the highest predicted activities, upon being tested, often show a several-fold increase in the fraction of active compounds relative to a randomly selected set. A trend vector is simply the one-dimensional array of correlations between the biological activity of interest and a set of properties or `descriptors' of compounds in a training set. This paper examines two methods for generalizing the trend vector to improve the predicted rank order. The trend matrix method finds the correlations between the residuals and the simultaneous occurrence of descriptors, which are stored in a two-dimensional analog of the trend vector. The SAMPLS method derives a linear model by partial least squares (PLS), using the `sample-based' formulation of PLS [Bush, B.L. and Nachbar, R.B., J. Comput.-Aided Mol. Design, 7 (1993) 587] for efficiency in treating the large number of descriptors. PLS accumulates a predictive model as a sum of linear components. Expressed as a vector of prediction coefficients on properties, the first PLS component is proportional to the trend vector. Subsequent components adjust the model toward full least squares. For both methods the residuals decrease, while the risk of overfitting the training set increases. We therefore also describe statistical checks to prevent overfitting. These methods are applied to two data sets, a small homologous series of disubstituted piperidines, tested on the dopamine receptor, and a large set of diverse chemical structures, some of which are active at the muscarinic receptor. Each data set is split into a training set and a test set, and the activities in the test set are predicted from a fit on the training set. Both the trend

  17. Time Trends in Antipsychotic Drug Use in Patients with Dementia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Ane; Jensen-Dahm, Christina; Gasse, Christiane

    2015-01-01

    : To investigate time trends in use of antipsychotics and other psychotropic drugs in dementia care. METHODS: The study included longitudinal data on all Danish residents ≥65 years. The study population was defined on January 1 of each year from 2000-2012. Data included prescriptions, discharge diagnoses......, and somatic and psychiatric comorbidities. Multivariate time trend analyses of psychotropic drug use in patients with dementia within 4-year age bands were performed. RESULTS: Overall, among patients with dementia the prevalence of antipsychotic drug use decreased from 31.3% in 2000 to 20.4% in 2012...... increased as the annual median number of defined daily doses (DDD) increased from 33.3 to 42.0 DDD. CONCLUSIONS: The changing patterns of psychotropic drug use may be caused by warnings against use of antipsychotics. Further research is needed to explore the implications for patient safety....

  18. Time trends of perfluorinated compounds from the sediment core of Tokyo Bay, Japan (1950s-2004)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zushi, Yasuyuki; Tamada, Masafumi [Graduate School of Environment and Information Sciences, Yokohama National University, 79-7 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya, Yokohama 240-8501 (Japan); Kanai, Yutaka [Geological Survey of Japan, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, 1-1-1 Higashi, Tsukuba 305-8567 (Japan); Masunaga, Shigeki, E-mail: masunaga@ynu.ac.j [Graduate School of Environment and Information Sciences, Yokohama National University, 79-7 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya, Yokohama 240-8501 (Japan)

    2010-03-15

    Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) were detected in sediment core samples collected in Tokyo Bay to reveal their time trends. The core sample deposited during 1950s-2004 was divided into two- to three-year intervals and the concentrations of 24 types of PFCs were determined. Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) decreased gradually from the early 1990s and its precursor decreased rapidly in the late 1990s, whereas perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) increased rapidly. The observed trends were regarded as a reflection of the shift from perfluorooctyl sulfonyl fluoride (PFOSF)-based products to telomer-based products after the phaseout of PFOSF-based products in 2001. The branched isomers of perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA) and perfluorotridecanoic acid (PFTrDA) were detected in the sample with its ratio of linear-isomer/branched-isomer concentrations decreasing. In this study, we revealed that the sediment core can serve as a tool for reconstructing the past pollution trend of PFCs and can provide interesting evidence concerning their environmental dynamics and time trend. - This study reports the time trends of the concentrations of 24 species of PFCs, including FTCA, FTUCA and FOSAA, in a sediment core of Tokyo Bay, Japan.

  19. Adaptive trend estimation in financial time series via multiscale change-point-induced basis recovery

    OpenAIRE

    Schröder, Anna Louise; Fryzlewicz, Piotr

    2013-01-01

    Low-frequency financial returns can be modelled as centered around piecewise-constant trend functions which change at certain points in time. We propose a new stochastic time series framework which captures this feature. The main ingredient of our model is a hierarchically-ordered oscillatory basis of simple piecewise-constant functions. It differs from the Fourier-like bases traditionally used in time series analysis in that it is determined by change-points, and hence needs to be estimated ...

  20. Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

    2008-01-01

    Whether children, especially girls, are entering and progressing through puberty earlier today than in the mid-1900s has been debated. Secular trend analysis, based on available data, is limited by data comparability among studies in different populations, in different periods of time, and using...

  1. Detecting Land Cover Change by Trend and Seasonality of Remote Sensing Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, J. C.; Epiphanio, J. N.; Mello, M. P.

    2013-05-01

    Natural resource managers demand knowledge of information on the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and land cover change, and detection and characteristics change over time is an initial step for the understanding of the mechanism of change. The propose of this research is the use the approach BFAST (Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend) for detects trend and seasonal changes within Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series. BFAST integrates the decomposition of time series into trend, seasonal, and noise components with methods for detecting change within time series without the need to select a reference period, set a threshold, or define a change trajectory. BFAST iteratively estimates the time and number of changes, and characterizes change by its magnitude and direction. The general model is of the form Yt = Tt + St + et (t= 1,2,3,…, n) where Yt is the observed data at time t, Tt is the trend component, St is the seasonal component, and et is the remainder component. In this study was used MODIS NDVI time series datasets (MOD13Q1) over 11 years (2000 - 2010) on an intensive agricultural area in Mato Grosso - Brazil. At first it was applied a filter for noise reduction (4253H twice) over spectral curve of each MODIS pixel, and subsequently each time series was decomposed into seasonal, trend, and remainder components by BFAST. Were detected one abrupt change from a single pixel of forest and two abrupt changes on trend component to a pixel of the agricultural area. Figure 1 shows the number of phonological change with base in seasonal component for study area. This paper demonstrated the ability of the BFAST to detect long-term phenological change by analyzing time series while accounting for abrupt and gradual changes. The algorithm iteratively estimates the dates and number of changes occurring within seasonal and trend components, and characterizes changes by extracting the magnitude and direction of change. Changes occurring in the

  2. Time Trends in Lifestyle, Risk Factor Control, and Use of Evidence-Based Medications in Patients With Coronary Heart Disease in Europe: Results From 3 EUROASPIRE Surveys, 1999-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotseva, Kornelia; De Bacquer, Dirk; Jennings, Catriona; Gyberg, Viveca; De Backer, Guy; Rydén, Lars; Amouyel, Philippe; Bruthans, Jan; Cifkova, Renata; Deckers, Jaap W; De Sutter, Johan; Fraz, Zlatko; Graham, Ian; Keber, Irena; Lehto, Seppo; Moore, David; Pajak, Andrzej; Wood, David

    2017-12-01

    The EUROASPIRE (European Action on Secondary and Primary Prevention by Intervention to Reduce Events) cross-sectional surveys describe time trends in lifestyle and risk factor control among coronary patients between 1999 and 2013 in Belgium, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Ireland, the Netherlands, Poland, Slovenia, and the United Kingdom as part of the EuroObservational Research Programme under the auspices of European Society of Cardiology. This study sought to describe time trends in lifestyle, risk factor control, and the use of evidence-based medication in coronary patients across Europe. The EUROASPIRE II (1999 to 2000), III (2006 to 2007), and IV (2012 to 13) surveys were conducted in the same geographical areas and selected hospitals in each country. Consecutive patients (≤70 years) after coronary artery bypass graft, percutaneous coronary intervention, or an acute coronary syndrome identified from hospital records were interviewed and examined ≥6 months later with standardized methods. Of 12,775 identified coronary patients, 8,456 (66.2%) were interviewed. Proportion of current smokers was similar across the 3 surveys. Prevalence of obesity increased by 7%. The prevalence of raised blood pressure (≥140/90 mm Hg or ≥140/80 mm Hg with diabetes) dropped by 8% from EUROASPIRE III to IV, and therapeutic control of blood pressure improved with 55% of patients below target in IV. The prevalence of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥2.5 mmol/l decreased by 44%. In EUROASPIRE IV, 75% were above the target low-density lipoprotein cholesterol III surveys, but did not change between the III and IV surveys. Lifestyle habits have deteriorated over time with increases in obesity, central obesity, and diabetes and stagnating rates of persistent smoking. Although blood pressure and lipid management improved, they are still not optimally controlled and the use of evidence-based medications appears to have stalled apart from the increased use of high

  3. Econophysics — complex correlations and trend switchings in financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preis, T.

    2011-03-01

    This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.

  4. Trends in Timing of Pregnancy Awareness Among US Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branum, Amy M; Ahrens, Katherine A

    2017-04-01

    Objectives Early pregnancy detection is important for improving pregnancy outcomes as the first trimester is a critical window of fetal development; however, there has been no description of trends in timing of pregnancy awareness among US women. Methods We examined data from the 1995, 2002, 2006-2010 and 2011-2013 National Survey of Family Growth on self-reported timing of pregnancy awareness among women aged 15-44 years who reported at least one pregnancy in the 4 or 5 years prior to interview that did not result in induced abortion or adoption (n = 17, 406). We examined the associations between maternal characteristics and late pregnancy awareness (≥7 weeks' gestation) using adjusted prevalence ratios from logistic regression models. Gestational age at time of pregnancy awareness (continuous) was regressed over year of pregnancy conception (1990-2012) in a linear model. Results Among all pregnancies reported, gestational age at time of pregnancy awareness was 5.5 weeks (standard error = 0.04) and the prevalence of late pregnancy awareness was 23 % (standard error = 1 %). Late pregnancy awareness decreased with maternal age, was more prevalent among non-Hispanic black and Hispanic women compared to non-Hispanic white women, and for unintended pregnancies versus those that were intended (p pregnancy awareness did not change linearly over a 23-year time period after adjustment for maternal age at the time of conception (p pregnancy awareness did not change linearly during 1990-2012 among US women and occurs later among certain groups of women who are at higher risk of adverse birth outcomes.

  5. Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Jia Chaolong; Xu Weixiang; Wang Futian; Wang Hanning

    2012-01-01

    The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM (1,1) is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changin...

  6. Population-Based Ectopic Pregnancy Trends, 1993–2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trabert, Britton; Holt, Victoria L; Yu, Onchee; Van Den Eeden, Stephen K; Scholes, Delia

    2011-01-01

    Background The accuracy of ectopic pregnancy rates based on nationally representative data has been compromised for many years, impairing surveillance and evaluation of the continued public health importance of this condition. Purpose To estimate long-term population-based ectopic pregnancy rates and trends within a defined population over a largely unevaluated time period, including the evaluation of trends in outpatient versus inpatient management and medical versus surgical treatment modalities. Methods Using computerized Group Health Cooperative inpatient and outpatient data, age-adjusted and age-specific ectopic pregnancy rates were calculated from 1993 to 2007 among enrollees aged 15–44 years. Overall trends and trends for care setting (inpatient versus outpatient) and treatment modality (medical versus surgical) were also evaluated. Analyses were conducted in 2009. Results Between 1993 and 2007, 2114 ectopic pregnancy cases (726 inpatient; 1388 outpatient) were identified among 1 180 070 woman-years, an annual age-adjusted ectopic pregnancy rate of 17.9 per 10 000 woman-years. Rates were stable from 1993 to 2004 and increased in the most recent 3 years (2005–2007, rate = 21.1 per 10 000 woman-years). Rates per 1000 pregnancies increased over the 15-year period from 19.2 to 26.2 per 1000 pregnancies (p-value = 0.001). Inpatient-diagnosed cases decreased from 45.4% in 1993–1995 to 26.9% in 2005–2007 (p-value ectopic pregnancy rates over a recent 15-year period. Rates are similar to the last available national estimate suggesting that the significance of ectopic pregnancy as a public health problem has not diminished in these intervening years. PMID:21496755

  7. Time trends and latitudinal differences in melanoma thickness distribution in Australia, 1990-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baade, Peter; Meng, Xingqiong; Youlden, Danny; Aitken, Joanne; Youl, Philippa

    2012-01-01

    This study investigated time trends and latitude differentials in the thickness distributions of invasive melanomas diagnosed in Australia between 1990 and 2006 using data from population-based cancer registries. Trends in incidence rates were calculated by sex, age group, thickness, year at diagnosis and latitude. For thin (4.00 mm) melanomas continued to increase over the entire period (males +2.6(+1.9,+3.4); females +1.6(+0.6,+2.6)). Recent reductions in the incidence of thin melanomas were observed among young (Australia. The observed trends in thin melanomas can most likely be attributed to the impact of early detection and skin awareness campaigns. However, these efforts have not impacted on the continued increase in the incidence of thick melanomas, although some increase may be due to earlier detection of metastasising melanomas. This highlights the need for continued vigilance in early detection processes. Copyright © 2011 UICC.

  8. Nutrient trends through time in Sweden's Baltic Drainage Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, I.; Destouni, G.; Prieto, C.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in climate and land-use have and will continue to modify regional hydrology, in turn impacting environmental health, agricultural productivity and water resource quality and availability. The Baltic region is an area of interest as the coast spans nine countries- serving over 100 million people. The Baltic Sea contains one of the largest human caused hypoxic dead zones due to eutrophication driven by anthropogenic excess loading of nutrients. Policies to reduce these loads include also international directives and agreements, such as the EU Water Framework Directive, adopted in 2000 to protect and improve water quality throughout the European Union, and the Baltic Sea Action Plan under the Helsinki Commission aimed specifically at reducing the nutrient loading to and mitigating the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. In light of these policies and amidst the number of studies on the Baltic Sea we ask, using the accessible nutrient and discharge data what does nutrient loading look like today? Are the most excessive loads going down? Observed nutrient and flow time series across Sweden allow for answering these questions, by spatial and temporal trend analysis of loads from various parts of Sweden to the Baltic Sea. Analyzing these observed time series in conjunction with the ecological health status classifications of the EU Water Framework Directive, allows in particular for answering the question if the loads into the water bodies with the poorest water quality, and from those to the Baltic Sea, are improving, being maintained or deteriorating. Such insight is required to contribute to relevant and efficient water and nutrient load management. Furthermore, empirically calculating nutrient loads, rather than only modeling, reveals that the water body health classification may not reflect what water bodies actually contribute the heaviest loads to the Baltic Sea. This work also underscores the importance of comprehensive analysis of all available data from

  9. Visualizing trends and clusters in ranked time-series data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gousie, Michael B.; Grady, John; Branagan, Melissa

    2013-12-01

    There are many systems that provide visualizations for time-oriented data. Of those, few provide the means of finding patterns in time-series data in which rankings are also important. Fewer still have the fine granularity necessary to visually follow individual data points through time. We propose the Ranking Timeline, a novel visualization method for modestly-sized multivariate data sets that include the top ten rankings over time. The system includes two main visualization components: a ranking over time and a cluster analysis. The ranking visualization, loosely based on line plots, allows the user to track individual data points so as to facilitate comparisons within a given time frame. Glyphs represent additional attributes within the framework of the overall system. The user has control over many aspects of the visualization, including viewing a subset of the data and/or focusing on a desired time frame. The cluster analysis tool shows the relative importance of individual items in conjunction with a visualization showing the connection(s) to other, similar items, while maintaining the aforementioned glyphs and user interaction. The user controls the clustering according to a similarity threshold. The system has been implemented as a Web application, and has been tested with data showing the top ten actors/actresses from 1929-2010. The experiments have revealed patterns in the data heretofore not explored.

  10. Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

    2008-01-01

    Whether children, especially girls, are entering and progressing through puberty earlier today than in the mid-1900s has been debated. Secular trend analysis, based on available data, is limited by data comparability among studies in different populations, in different periods of time, and using ...... to discriminate fat versus breast tissue, and (3) establishment of cohorts to examine pubertal markers longitudinally within the same individuals....

  11. Radioactive contamination in Norwegian fish and seafood 1960-2013: time trends and geographical trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heldal, Hilde Elise; Svaeren, Ingrid; Liebig, Penny Lee [Institute of Marine Research, P. O. Box 1870 Nordnes, N-5817 Bergen (Norway); Brungot, Anne Lene; Gaefvert, Torbjoern; Rudjord, Anne Liv [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, P.O. Box 55, N-1332 Oesteraas (Norway); Gwynn, Justin [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, The Fram Centre, N-9296 Tromsoe (Norway)

    2014-07-01

    Barents Sea in 2012). However, time trends and geographical trends are clearly evident in the datasets. For example, the impact of fallout from the Chernobyl accident could be observed, particularly in samples collected in coastal areas and the Kattegat/Skagerrak and the North Sea. In recent decades there has been a slow decrease in the activity concentrations of most anthropogenic radionuclides in fish and seafood as a result of decreasing discharges from European reprocessing plants for spent nuclear fuel and the reduced impact of fallout from the Chernobyl accident. In the case of {sup 99}Tc however, activity concentrations in seawater and certain biota increased to peak values around 2000 as a result of increased discharges from Sellafield (UK) in the 1990's. In open sea areas, the activity concentrations of {sup 137}Cs in fish and seafood have been highest in the Skagerrak and the North Sea due to the proximity to the reprocessing plants at Sellafield and Cap la Hague (France) and outflowing Chernobyl-contaminated seawater from the Baltic Sea. Activity concentrations of {sup 137}Cs in fish and seafood collected in fjords in mid-Norway are up to an order of magnitude higher than in the open sea areas due to terrestrial run-off from Chernobyl fallout in Norway. (authors)

  12. HESS Opinions "More efforts and scientific rigour are needed to attribute trends in flood time series"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hundecha

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The question whether the magnitude and frequency of floods have changed due to climate change or other drivers of change is of high interest. The number of flood trend studies is rapidly rising. When changes are detected, many studies link the identified change to the underlying causes, i.e. they attribute the changes in flood behaviour to certain drivers of change. We propose a hypothesis testing framework for trend attribution which consists of essential ingredients for a sound attribution: evidence of consistency, evidence of inconsistency, and provision of confidence statement. Further, we evaluate the current state-of-the-art of flood trend attribution. We assess how selected recent studies approach the attribution problem, and to which extent their attribution statements seem defendable. In our opinion, the current state of flood trend attribution is poor. Attribution statements are mostly based on qualitative reasoning or even speculation. Typically, the focus of flood trend studies is the detection of change, i.e. the statistical analysis of time series, and attribution is regarded as an appendix: (1 flood time series are analysed by means of trend tests, (2 if a significant change is detected, a hypothesis on the cause of change is given, and (3 explanations or published studies are sought which support the hypothesis. We believe that we need a change in perspective and more scientific rigour: detection should be seen as an integral part of the more challenging attribution problem, and detection and attribution should be placed in a sound hypothesis testing framework.

  13. Detecting trends in forest disturbance and recovery using yearly Landsat time series: 1. LandTrendr — Temporal segmentation algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Kennedy; Zhiqiang Yang; Warren B. Cohen

    2010-01-01

    We introduce and test LandTrendr (Landsat-based detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery), a new approach to extract spectral trajectories of land surface change from yearly Landsat time-series stacks (LTS). The method brings together two themes in time-series analysis of LTS: capture of short-duration events and smoothing of long-term trends. Our strategy is...

  14. Space-time trends in U.S. meteorological droughts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poulomi Ganguli

    2016-12-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The paper finds spatial coverage of extreme meteorological drought in the recent years (post-2010 exceeds that of the iconic droughts of the 1930s (the Dust Bowl era, and the 1950s. These results are in contrast with trends in spatial variance that does not exhibit any statistically significant trend. In addition, we find drought persistence remains relatively stationary over the last half century. The findings can inform drought monitoring and planning, and improve future drought resilience.

  15. First Ground-Based Infrared Solar Absorption Measurements of Free Tropospheric Methanol (CH3OH): Multidecade Infrared Time Series from Kitt Peak (31.9 deg N 111.6 deg W): Trend, Seasonal Cycle, and Comparison with Previous Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinsland, Curtis P.; Mahieu, Emmanuel; Chiou, Linda; Herbin, Herve

    2009-01-01

    Atmospheric CH3OH (methanol) free tropospheric (2.09-14-km altitude) time series spanning 22 years has been analyzed on the basis of high-spectral resolution infrared solar absorption spectra of the strong vs band recorded from the U.S. National Solar Observatory on Kitt Peak (latitude 31.9degN, 111.6degW, 2.09-km altitude) with a 1-m Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS). The measurements span October 1981 to December 2003 and are the first long time series of CH3OH measurements obtained from the ground. The results were analyzed with SFIT2 version 3.93 and show a factor of three variations with season, a maximum at the beginning of July, a winter minimum, and no statistically significant long-term trend over the measurement time span.

  16. Lithography trends based on projections of the ITRS (Invited Paper)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arden, Wolfgang

    2005-06-01

    The microelectronic industry has gone through an enormous technical evolution in the last four decades. Both the tech-nological and economic challenges of microelectronics were increasing consistently in the past few years. This paper discusses the future trends in micro- and nano-technologies with special emphasis on lithography. The trends of minia-turization will be sketched with reference to the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS). After a description of general trends in technology node timing, an overview will be given on the future lithography require-ments and the technical solutions including options for post-optical lithography as, for example, Extreme UV.

  17. Current trends on knowledge-based systems

    CERN Document Server

    Valencia-García, Rafael

    2017-01-01

    This book presents innovative and high-quality research on the implementation of conceptual frameworks, strategies, techniques, methodologies, informatics platforms and models for developing advanced knowledge-based systems and their application in different fields, including Agriculture, Education, Automotive, Electrical Industry, Business Services, Food Manufacturing, Energy Services, Medicine and others. Knowledge-based technologies employ artificial intelligence methods to heuristically address problems that cannot be solved by means of formal techniques. These technologies draw on standard and novel approaches from various disciplines within Computer Science, including Knowledge Engineering, Natural Language Processing, Decision Support Systems, Artificial Intelligence, Databases, Software Engineering, etc. As a combination of different fields of Artificial Intelligence, the area of Knowledge-Based Systems applies knowledge representation, case-based reasoning, neural networks, Semantic Web and TICs used...

  18. Recent Trends in the Philosophy of Time: an Introduction to Time and Reality I

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emiliano Boccardi

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This essay is an introduction to Time and Reality I, the first part of a special issue dedicated to the philosophy of time. Here I outline a number of new trends in philosophical theorizing about time, detailing how the various contributions fit into the picture. I argue that there has been a potentially misleading tendency to separate the debate over the passage of time from the debate over the reality of tense. This has obscured a number of interesting philosophical questions. One of the aims of this volume is to bring these two issues together, where they belong. I argue that many contributions to it go in the right direction. The contributions to this volume also establish uncharted philosophical junctures between Metaphysics, Aesthetics, Morality, and the Philosophy of Mind.

  19. Impact of 2008 global economic crisis on suicide: time trend study in 54 countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Shu-Sen; Stuckler, David; Yip, Paul; Gunnell, David

    2013-09-17

    To investigate the impact of the 2008 global economic crisis on international trends in suicide and to identify sex/age groups and countries most affected. Time trend analysis comparing the actual number of suicides in 2009 with the number that would be expected based on trends before the crisis (2000-07). Suicide data from 54 countries; for 53 data were available in the World Health Organization mortality database and for one (the United States) data came the CDC online database. People aged 15 or above. Suicide rate and number of excess suicides in 2009. There were an estimated 4884 (95% confidence interval 3907 to 5860) excess suicides in 2009 compared with the number expected based on previous trends (2000-07). The increases in suicide mainly occurred in men in the 27 European and 18 American countries; the suicide rates were 4.2% (3.4% to 5.1%) and 6.4% (5.4% to 7.5%) higher, respectively, in 2009 than expected if earlier trends had continued. For women, there was no change in European countries and the increase in the Americas was smaller than in men (2.3%). Rises in European men were highest in those aged 15-24 (11.7%), while in American countries men aged 45-64 showed the largest increase (5.2%). Rises in national suicide rates in men seemed to be associated with the magnitude of increases in unemployment, particularly in countries with low levels of unemployment before the crisis (Spearman's rs=0.48). After the 2008 economic crisis, rates of suicide increased in the European and American countries studied, particularly in men and in countries with higher levels of job loss.

  20. Fall prevalence, time trend and its related risk factors among elderly people in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Hong; Ouyang, Peng

    2017-11-01

    To study the fall prevalence, time trends and related risk factors among elderly people in the Chinese mainland from 2011 to 2013. Our data were from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2011 and 2013. The population sample included people aged 60 years and over. Whether the person had experienced fall accident in the last two years was used to measure fall incidence. The time trend and age groups were investigated through the chi-square test. The related risk factors were examined based on the binary logistic regression model. In 2011, 19.64% (95% CI, 18.66%, 20.67%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents and in 2013, 19.28% (95% CI, 18.46%, 20.13%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents. However, no significant difference was seen in the fall prevalence between 2011 and 2013. The fall prevalence among elderly people aged 66-70 declined significantly while that among people aged over 80 showed an increasing time trend. The fall prevalence was affected significantly by factors including age (66-70), gender, marital status, self-rated health, quantity of chronic diseases, quantity of disability items, activities of daily living and physical functioning. It is revealed the fall prevalence showed no increment from 2011 to 2013 but at a high level. More efforts should be made to reduce the fall prevalence, and special attention should be paid to the elderly people aged over 80 and older. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

    2014-02-01

    The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the

  2. Osteoporosis-Related Mortality: Time-Trends and Predictive Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelly Ziadé

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Osteoporosis is one of the leading causes of handicap worldwide and a major contributor to the global burden of diseases. In particular, osteoporosis is associated with excess mortality. We reviewed the impact of osteoporosis on mortality in a population by defining three categories: mortality following hip fractures, mortality following other sites of fractures, and mortality associated with low bone mineral density (BMD. Hip fractures, as well as other fractures at major sites are all associated with excess mortality, except at the forearm site. This excess mortality is higher during the first 3-6 months after the fracture and then declines over time, but remains higher than the mortality of the normal population up to 22 years after the fracture. Low BMD is also associated with high mortality, with hazard ratios of around 1.3 for every decrease in 1 standard deviation of bone density at 5 years, independently of fractures, reflecting a more fragile population. Finally predictors of mortality were identified and categorised in demographic known factors (age and male gender and in factors reflecting a poor general health status such as the number of comorbidities, low mental status, or level of social dependence. Our results indicate that the management of a patient with osteoporosis should include a multivariate approach that could be based on predictive models in the future.

  3. Geographic Variations and Time Trends in Cancer Treatments in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Jason C; Chang, Sheng-Mao; Lu, Christine Y

    2017-08-02

    Targeted therapies have become important treatment options for cancer care in many countries. This study aimed to examine recent trends in utilization of antineoplastic drugs, particularly the use of targeted therapies for treatment of cancer, by geographic region in Taiwan (northern, midwestern, southern, and eastern regions and the outer islands). This was a retrospective observational study of antineoplastic agents using 2009-2012 quarterly claims data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. Yearly market shares by prescription volume and costs for targeted therapies among total antineoplastic agents by region were estimated. We used multivariate regression model and ANOVA to examine variations in utilization of targeted therapies between geographic regions and used ARIMA models to estimate longitudinal trends. Population-adjusted use and costs of antineoplastic drugs (including targeted therapies) were highest in the southern region of Taiwan and lowest in the outer islands. We found a 4-fold difference in use of antineoplastic drugs and a 49-fold difference in use of targeted therapies between regions if the outer islands were included. There were minimal differences in use of antineoplastic drugs between other regions with about a 2-fold difference in use of targeted therapies. Without considering the outer islands, the market share by prescription volume and costs of targeted therapies increased almost 2-fold (1.84-1.90) and 1.5-fold (1.26-1.61) respectively between 2009 and 2012. Furthermore, region was not significantly associated with use of antineoplastic agents or use of targeted therapies after adjusting for confounders. Region was associated with costs of antineoplastic agents but it was not associated with costs of targeted therapies after confounding adjustments. Use of antineoplastic drugs overall and use of targeted therapies for treatment of cancer varied somewhat between regions in Taiwan; use was notably low in the outer

  4. Google It Up! A Google Trends-based Uncertainty Index for the United States and Australia

    OpenAIRE

    Castelnuovo, Efrem; Duc Tran, Trung

    2017-01-01

    We develop uncertainty indices for the United States and Australia based on freely accessible, real time Google Trends data. Our Google Trends Uncertainty (GTU) indices are found to be positively correlated to a variety of alternative proxies for uncertainty available for these two countries. VAR investigations document an economically and statistically significant contribution to unemployment dynamics by GTU shocks in the United States. Differently, the contribution of GTU shocks to unemploy...

  5. FBG-Based Monitoring of Geohazards: Current Status and Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Hu Zhu

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, natural and anthropogenic geohazards have occured frequently all over the world, and field monitoring is becoming an increasingly important task to mitigate these risks. However, conventional geotechnical instrumentations for monitoring geohazards have a number of weaknesses, such as low accuracy, poor durability, and high sensitivity to environmental interferences. In this aspect, fiber Bragg grating (FBG, as a popular fiber optic sensing technology, has gained an explosive amount of attention. Based on this technology, quasi-distributed sensing systems have been established to perform real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides, debris flows, land subsidence, earth fissures and so on. In this paper, the recent research and development activities of applying FBG systems to monitor different types of geohazards, especially those triggered by human activities, are critically reviewed. The working principles of newly developed FBG sensors are briefly introduced, and their features are summarized. This is followed by a discussion of recent case studies and lessons learned, and some critical problems associated with field implementation of FBG-based monitoring systems. Finally the challenges and future trends in this research area are presented.

  6. Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

    2010-01-01

    as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...

  7. SDG and qualitative trend based model multiple scale validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Dong; Xu, Xin; Yin, Jianjin; Zhang, Hongyu; Zhang, Beike

    2017-09-01

    Verification, Validation and Accreditation (VV&A) is key technology of simulation and modelling. For the traditional model validation methods, the completeness is weak; it is carried out in one scale; it depends on human experience. The SDG (Signed Directed Graph) and qualitative trend based multiple scale validation is proposed. First the SDG model is built and qualitative trends are added to the model. And then complete testing scenarios are produced by positive inference. The multiple scale validation is carried out by comparing the testing scenarios with outputs of simulation model in different scales. Finally, the effectiveness is proved by carrying out validation for a reactor model.

  8. Time Series Analysis of Insar Data: Methods and Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osmanoglu, Batuhan; Sunar, Filiz; Wdowinski, Shimon; Cano-Cabral, Enrique

    2015-01-01

    Time series analysis of InSAR data has emerged as an important tool for monitoring and measuring the displacement of the Earth's surface. Changes in the Earth's surface can result from a wide range of phenomena such as earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, variations in ground water levels, and changes in wetland water levels. Time series analysis is applied to interferometric phase measurements, which wrap around when the observed motion is larger than one-half of the radar wavelength. Thus, the spatio-temporal ''unwrapping" of phase observations is necessary to obtain physically meaningful results. Several different algorithms have been developed for time series analysis of InSAR data to solve for this ambiguity. These algorithms may employ different models for time series analysis, but they all generate a first-order deformation rate, which can be compared to each other. However, there is no single algorithm that can provide optimal results in all cases. Since time series analyses of InSAR data are used in a variety of applications with different characteristics, each algorithm possesses inherently unique strengths and weaknesses. In this review article, following a brief overview of InSAR technology, we discuss several algorithms developed for time series analysis of InSAR data using an example set of results for measuring subsidence rates in Mexico City.

  9. Current and Future Trends in Game-Based Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Vaz de Carvalho

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The first number of the second volume of the EAI Transactions on Serious Games focuses on the results presented on the European Conference on Game-Based Learning. This event, already on the 8th edition, has set standards in terms of presentation of research and practice and in the pointing out of new and future trends in the development of Game-Based Learning. As such, we are quite thrilled to be able to report them here.

  10. The latest trends in nature-based outdoor recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Ken Cordell

    2008-01-01

    Considerable interest in better understanding current trends in nature-based outdoor recreation followed publication of Richard Louv’s book, Last Child in the Woods, and a recent paper by Oliver R.W. Pergams and Patricia A. Zaradic titled “Evidence for a Fundamental and Pervasive Shift away from Nature-Based Recreation.”

  11. Determinants and Time Trends for Ischaemic and Haemorrhagic Stroke in a Large Chinese Population

    OpenAIRE

    Guo, Yutao; Wang, Hao; Tao, Tao; Tian, Yingchun; Wang, Yutang; Chen, Yundai; Lip, Gregory Y. H.

    2016-01-01

    Background The clinical epidemiology of stroke has been widely investigated in Caucasian populations, but the changes over time in the proportion of ischaemic to haemorrhagic strokes is less clear, especially in the Chinese population. Aims Our objective was to study the determinants and time trends for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke, in relation to age, in a large Chinese population cohort. Methods Using a medical insurance database in the southwest of China from 2001 to 2012, time trends...

  12. Detecting cognizable trends of gene expression in a time series ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ular for genome-scale transcriptome profiling (Wang et al. 2009). Unlike microarrays, RNA-seq is probe-independent ... E-mail: pp1@nibmg.ac.in. Starmans et al. 2012; Zhang et al. 2013; Aijo et al. 2014; .... RNA-seq dataset derived from a gene expression profil- ing study carried out at three time points. This dataset has.

  13. Detecting cognizable trends of gene expression in a time series ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. Study of temporal trajectory of gene expression is important. RNA sequencing is popular in genome-scale studies of tran- scription. Because of high expenses involved, many time-course RNA sequencing studies are challenged by inadequacy of sample sizes. This poses difficulties in conducting formal statistical ...

  14. Economic resources and remaining single: trends over time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dykstra, P.A.; Poortman, A.

    2010-01-01

    An influential hypothesis in family research is that having many economic resources decreases women’s and increases men’s rate of entering a union. A more recent hypothesis is that the strength of the association between economic resources and union formation has weakened over time, given decreasing

  15. Economic resources and remaining single : trends over time.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dykstra, Pearl A.; Poortman, Anne-Rigt

    2010-01-01

    An influential hypothesis in family research is that having many economic resources decreases women’s and increases men’s rate of entering a union. A more recent hypothesis is that the strength of the association between economic resources and union formation has weakened over time, given decreasing

  16. Behavior-over-time graphs: assessing perceived trends in healthy eating and active living environments and behaviors across 49 communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoehner, Christine M; Sabounchi, Nasim S; Brennan, Laura K; Hovmand, Peter; Kemner, Allison

    2015-01-01

    In the evaluation of the Healthy Kids, Healthy Communities initiative, investigators implemented Group Model Building (GMB) to promote systems thinking at the community level. As part of the GMB sessions held in each community partnership, participants created behavior-over-time graphs (BOTGs) to characterize their perceptions of changes over time related to policies, environments, collaborations, and social determinants in their community related to healthy eating, active living, and childhood obesity. To describe the process of coding BOTGs and their trends. Descriptive study of trends among BOTGs from 11 domains (eg, active living environments, social determinants of health, funding) and relevant categories and subcategories based on the graphed variables. In addition, BOTGs were distinguished by whether the variables were positively (eg, access to healthy foods) or negatively (eg, screen time) associated with health. The GMB sessions were held in 49 community partnerships across the United States. Participants in the GMB sessions (n = 590; n = 5-21 per session) included key individuals engaged in or impacted by the policy, system, or environmental changes occurring in the community. Thirty codes were developed to describe the direction (increasing, decreasing, stable) and shape (linear, reinforcing, balancing, or oscillating) of trends from 1660 graphs. The patterns of trends varied by domain. For example, among variables positively associated with health, the prevalence of reinforcing increasing trends was highest for active living and healthy eating environments (37.4% and 29.3%, respectively), partnership and community capacity (38.8%), and policies (30.2%). Examination of trends of specific variables suggested both convergence (eg, for cost of healthy foods) and divergence (eg, for farmers' markets) of trends across partnerships. Behavior-over-time graphs provide a unique data source for understanding community-level trends and, when combined with causal

  17. Long-term and recent time trends in the prevalence of obesity among Dutch men and women

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visscher, T L S; Kromhout, D.; Seidell, J C

    OBJECTIVE: To describe long-term and recent time trends in the prevalence of obesity by age and educational level. DESIGN: :Repeated cross-sectional population based monitoring studies. SETTING: Consultation Bureau Heart Project 1976-1980, Monitoring Project on Cardiovascular Diseases 1987-1991 and

  18. Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

    2016-01-01

    Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective.

  19. Methodological issues in analyzing time trends in biologic fertility: protection bias

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Key, Jane; Best, Nicky; Joffe, Michael

    2009-01-01

    One method of assessing biologic fertility is to measure time to pregnancy (TTP). Accidental pregnancies do not generate a valid TTP value and lead to nonrandom missing data if couples experiencing accidental pregnancies are more fertile than the general population. If factors affecting the rate...... of accidental pregnancies, such as availability of effective contraception and induced abortion, vary over time, then the result may be protection bias in the estimates of fertility time trends. Six European data sets were analyzed to investigate whether evidence of protection bias exists in TTP studies...... of fertility trends in Europe over the past 50 years. Couples experiencing accidental pregnancies tended to be more fertile than the general population. However, trends in accidental pregnancy rates were inconsistent across countries and were insufficient to produce substantial bias in fertility trends...

  20. FURTHER CONSIDERATIONS ON SPREADSHEET-BASED AUTOMATIC TREND LINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DANIEL HOMOCIANU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Most of the nowadays business applications working with data sets allow exports to the spreadsheet format. This fact is related to the experience of common business users with such products and to the possibility to couple what they have with something containing many models, functions and possibilities to process and represent data, by that getting something in dynamics and much more than a simple static less useful report. The purpose of Business Intelligence is to identify clusters, profiles, association rules, decision trees and many other patterns or even behaviours, but also to generate alerts for exceptions, determine trends and make predictions about the future based on historical data. In this context, the paper shows some practical results obtained after testing both the automatic creation of scatter charts and trend lines corresponding to the user’s preferences and the automatic suggesting of the most appropriate trend for the tested data mostly based on the statistical measure of how close they are to the regression function.

  1. Gender-based violence in India: long-term trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simister, John; Mehta, Parnika S

    2010-09-01

    This article examines long-term trends in Indian society regarding domestic violence between husband and wife, and attitudes to such violence. This article analyzes crime data and uses data from several Indian household surveys: "Work Attitudes and Spending" surveys (1992 to 2007); "World Values Survey" (1990, 1995, 2001, and 2006); and "Demographic and Health Surveys" (1992-1993, 1998-2000, and 2005). Several trends are apparent- some changes suggest that Indian women are becoming more liberated, but others imply worsening conditions for Indian women, such as more violence against women. This increase in violence may be temporary, as India is in transition to a more modern society: There is evidence that some gender-based violence is a male response to increasingly "modern" attitudes among Indian women.

  2. A Google Trends-based approach for monitoring NSSI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi

    2013-01-01

    Non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) is an intentional, direct, and socially unacceptable behavior resulting in the destruction of one's own body tissues with no intention of dying or committing suicide, even though it is associated with a higher risk of attempted, planned, or just considered suicide. In this preliminary report, we introduce the concept of "NSSI 2.0"; that is to say, the study of the Internet usage by subjects with NSSI, and we introduce a Google Trends-based approach for monitoring NSSI, called NSSI infodemiology and infoveillance. Despite some limitations, Google Trends has already proven to be reliable for infectious diseases monitoring, and here we extend its application and potentiality in the field of suicidology. Ad hoc web portals and surveys could be designed in light of the reported results for helping people with NSSI.

  3. Geographical variations in sex ratio trends over time in multiple sclerosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Trojano

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A female/male (F/M ratio increase over time in multiple sclerosis (MS patients was demonstrated in many countries around the world. So far, a direct comparison of sex ratio time-trends among MS populations from different geographical areas was not carried out. OBJECTIVE: In this paper we assessed and compared sex ratio trends, over a 60-year span, in MS populations belonging to different latitudinal areas. METHODS: Data of a cohort of 15,996 (F = 11,290; M = 4,706 definite MS with birth years ranging from 1930 to 1989 were extracted from the international MSBase registry and the New Zealand MS database. Gender ratios were calculated by six decades based on year of birth and were adjusted for the F/M born-alive ratio derived from the respective national registries of births. RESULTS: Adjusted sex ratios showed a significant increase from the first to the last decade in the whole MS sample (from 2.35 to 2.73; p = 0.03 and in the subgroups belonging to the areas between 83° N and 45° N (from 1.93 to 4.55; p<0.0001 and between 45° N to 35° N (from 1.46 to 2.30; p<0.05 latitude, while a sex ratio stability over time was found in the subgroup from areas between 12° S and 55° S latitude. The sex ratio increase mainly affected relapsing-remitting (RR MS. CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm a general sex ratio increase over time in RRMS and also demonstrate a latitudinal gradient of this increase. These findings add useful information for planning case-control studies aimed to explore sex-related factors responsible for MS development.

  4. Time series analysis of onchocerciasis data from Mexico: a trend towards elimination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lara-Ramírez, Edgar E; Rodríguez-Pérez, Mario A; Pérez-Rodríguez, Miguel A; Adeleke, Monsuru A; Orozco-Algarra, María E; Arrendondo-Jiménez, Juan I; Guo, Xianwu

    2013-01-01

    In Latin America, there are 13 geographically isolated endemic foci distributed among Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil and Ecuador. The communities of the three endemic foci found within Mexico have been receiving ivermectin treatment since 1989. In this study, we predicted the trend of occurrence of cases in Mexico by applying time series analysis to monthly onchocerciasis data reported by the Mexican Secretariat of Health between 1988 and 2011 using the software R. A total of 15,584 cases were reported in Mexico from 1988 to 2011. The data of onchocerciasis cases are mainly from the main endemic foci of Chiapas and Oaxaca. The last case in Oaxaca was reported in 1998, but new cases were reported in the Chiapas foci up to 2011. Time series analysis performed for the foci in Mexico showed a decreasing trend of the disease over time. The best-fitted models with the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) were Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, which were used to predict the tendency of onchocerciasis cases for two years ahead. According to the ARIMA models predictions, the cases in very low number (below 1) are expected for the disease between 2012 and 2013 in Chiapas, the last endemic region in Mexico. The endemic regions of Mexico evolved from high onchocerciasis-endemic states to the interruption of transmission due to the strategies followed by the MSH, based on treatment with ivermectin. The extremely low level of expected cases as predicted by ARIMA models for the next two years suggest that the onchocerciasis is being eliminated in Mexico. To our knowledge, it is the first study utilizing time series for predicting case dynamics of onchocerciasis, which could be used as a benchmark during monitoring and post-treatment surveillance.

  5. Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in the southern Tianshan Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yan-Jun; Shen, Yanjun; Fink, Manfred; Kralisch, Sven; Chen, Yaning; Brenning, Alexander

    2018-02-01

    Streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing of mountain rivers are susceptible to climate change. Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in four mountain basins in the southern Tianshan were analyzed in this study. Streamflow trends were detected by Mann-Kendall tests and changes in snowmelt runoff timing were analyzed based on the winter/spring snowmelt runoff center time (WSCT). Pearson's correlation coefficient was further calculated to analyze the relationships between climate variables, streamflow and WSCT. Annual streamflow increased significantly in past decades in the southern Tianshan, especially in spring and winter months. However, the relations between streamflow and temperature/precipitation depend on the different streamflow generation processes. Annual precipitation plays a vital role in controlling recharge in the Toxkon basin, while the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are governed by both precipitation and temperature. Seasonally, temperature has a strong effect on streamflow in autumn and winter, while summer streamflow appears more sensitive to changes in precipitation. However, temperature is the dominant factor for streamflow in the glacierized Kunmalik basin at annual and seasonal scales. An uptrend in streamflow begins in the 1990s at both annual and seasonal scales, which is generally consistent with temperature and precipitation fluctuations. Average WSCT dates in the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are earlier than in the Toxkon and Kunmalik basins, and shifted towards earlier dates since the mid-1980s in all the basins. It is plausible that WSCT dates are more sensitive to warmer temperature in spring period compared to precipitation, except for the Huangshuigou basin. Taken together, these findings are useful for applications in flood risk regulation, future hydropower projects and integrated water resources management.

  6. Time trends, improvements and national auditing of rectal cancer management over an 18-year period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodeda, K; Johansson, R; Zar, N; Birgisson, H; Dahlberg, M; Skullman, S; Lindmark, G; Glimelius, B; Påhlman, L; Martling, A

    2015-09-01

    The main aims were to explore time trends in the management and outcome of patients with rectal cancer in a national cohort and to evaluate the possible impact of national auditing on overall outcomes. A secondary aim was to provide population-based data for appraisal of external validity in selected patient series. Data from the Swedish ColoRectal Cancer Registry with virtually complete national coverage were utilized in this cohort study on 29 925 patients with rectal cancer diagnosed between 1995 and 2012. Of eligible patients, nine were excluded. During the study period, overall, relative and disease-free survival increased. Postoperative mortality after 30 and 90 days decreased to 1.7% and 2.9%. The 5-year local recurrence rate dropped to 5.0%. Resection margins improved, as did peri-operative blood loss despite more multivisceral resections being performed. Fewer patients underwent palliative resection and the proportion of non-operated patients increased. The proportions of temporary and permanent stoma formation increased. Preoperative radiotherapy and chemoradiotherapy became more common as did multidisciplinary team conferences. Variability in rectal cancer management between healthcare regions diminished over time when new aspects of patient care were audited. There have been substantial changes over time in the management of patients with rectal cancer, reflected in improved outcome. Much indirect evidence indicates that auditing matters, but without a control group it is not possible to draw firm conclusions regarding the possible impact of a quality control registry on faster shifts in time trends, decreased variability and improvements. Registry data were made available for reference. Colorectal Disease © 2015 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

  7. Detection and attribution of trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mediero, Luis; Santillán, David; Garrote, Luis; Granados, Alfredo

    2014-09-01

    An analysis to detect trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods was conducted in Spain through nine flood indicators. A data set of gauging stations where the effect of dam regulation on flow series is negligible was obtained. Annual maximum and peaks-over-threshold series were extracted in three periods: 1942-2009, 1949-2009 and 1959-2009. A pre-whitening procedure was applied to remove serial correlation and the Mann-Kendall test selected to detect trends. A general decreasing trend in magnitude and frequency of floods was detected in the three periods, with more notable evidence in 1959-2009. An increasing trend in the timing (i.e. towards later floods) was also found in the northwest of Spain. In addition, a study to relate detected flood trends to a set of potential drivers was also conducted. Most such trends in flood series could be explained by corresponding and increasing trends in evapotranspiration that increase water losses in soils and decrease soil moisture content before the occurrence of floods.

  8. Length of Growing Period over Africa: Variability and Trends from 30 Years of NDVI Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Y. Said

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The spatial distribution of crops and farming systems in Africa is determined by the duration of the period during which crop and livestock water requirements are met. The length of growing period (LGP is normally assessed from weather station data—scarce in large parts of Africa—or coarse-resolution rainfall estimates derived from weather satellites. In this study, we analyzed LGP and its variability based on the 1981–2011 GIMMS NDVI3g dataset. We applied a variable threshold method in combination with a searching algorithm to determine start- and end-of-season. We obtained reliable LGP estimates for arid, semi-arid and sub-humid climates that are consistent in space and time. This approach effectively mapped bimodality for clearly separated wet seasons in the Horn of Africa. Due to cloud contamination, the identified bimodality along the Guinea coast was judged to be less certain. High LGP variability is dominant in arid and semi-arid areas, and is indicative of crop failure risk. Significant negative trends in LGP were found for the northern part of the Sahel, for parts of Tanzania and northern Mozambique, and for the short rains of eastern Kenya. Positive trends occurred across western Africa, in southern Africa, and in eastern Kenya for the long rains. Our LGP analysis provides useful information for the mapping of farming systems, and to study the effects of climate variability and other drivers of change on vegetation and crop suitability.

  9. Time trends in mental well-being: the polarisation of young people's psychological distress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Andy; Kelly, Yvonne; Sacker, Amanda

    2017-09-01

    Previous research on time trends of young people's mental health in Britain has produced conflicting findings: evidence for deterioration in mental health during the late 20th century followed by stability and slight improvement during the early 21st century is contrasted with evidence showing continued deterioration. The present study adds to the evidence base by assessing time trends in means, variances, and both low and high psychological distress scores covering a similar period. GHQ-12 (Likert scale) was regressed on time (adjusting for age) using a sample of young people aged 16-24 between 1991 and 2008 from the British Household Panel Study. Change in variance was assessed using Levene's homogeneity of variance test across 9-year intervals. Polarisation was assessed by a comparison of the prevalence of scores ≥1 standard deviation and ≥1.5 standard deviations above and below the pooled mean. There was a small but significant increase in mean GHQ-12 among young women (b 0.048; 95% CI 0.016, 0.080) only. Variance increased significantly (p < 0.05) across 9-year intervals in seven out of nine comparisons for women and in six out of nine comparisons for men. There were significant increases in low (OR: 1.19; 95% CI 1.05, 1.35), high (OR: 1.27; 95% CI 1.13, 1.42), and very high scores (OR: 1.42; 95% CI 1.23, 1.64) for young women, and increases in low (OR: 1.39; 95% CI 1.21, 1.59) and very low (OR: 1.53; 95% CI 1.21, 1.92) scores for young men. The evidence suggests a polarisation of the psychological distress of young women in Britain between 1991 and 2008.

  10. Cycling in São Paulo, Brazil (1997-2012): Correlates, time trends and health consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sá, Thiago Hérick; Duran, Ana Clara; Tainio, Marko; Monteiro, Carlos Augusto; Woodcock, James

    2016-12-01

    The purpose of the study was to describe cyclists and cycling trips, and to explore correlates, time trends and health consequences of cycling in São Paulo, Brazil from 1997 to 2012. Cross-sectional analysis using repeated São Paulo Household Travel Surveys (HTS). At all time periods cycling was a minority travel mode in São Paulo (1174 people with cycling trips out of 214,719 people). Poisson regressions for individual correlates were estimated using the entire 2012 HTS sample. Men were six times more likely to cycle than women. We found rates of bicycle use rising over time among the richest quartile but total cycling rates dropped from 1997 to 2012 due to decreasing rates among the poor. Harms from air pollution would negate benefits from physical activity through cycling only at 1997 air pollution levels and at very high cycling levels (≥ 9 h of cycling per day). Exposure-based road injury risk decreased between 2007 and 2012, from 0.76 to 0.56 cyclist deaths per 1000 person-hours travelled. Policies to reduce spatial segregation, measures to tackle air pollution, improvements in dedicated cycling infrastructure, and integrating the bicycle with the public transport system in neighborhoods of all income levels could make cycling safer and prevent more individuals from abandoning the cycling mode in São Paulo.

  11. Cycling in São Paulo, Brazil (1997–2012: Correlates, time trends and health consequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thiago Hérick Sá

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the study was to describe cyclists and cycling trips, and to explore correlates, time trends and health consequences of cycling in São Paulo, Brazil from 1997 to 2012. Cross-sectional analysis using repeated São Paulo Household Travel Surveys (HTS. At all time periods cycling was a minority travel mode in São Paulo (1174 people with cycling trips out of 214,719 people. Poisson regressions for individual correlates were estimated using the entire 2012 HTS sample. Men were six times more likely to cycle than women. We found rates of bicycle use rising over time among the richest quartile but total cycling rates dropped from 1997 to 2012 due to decreasing rates among the poor. Harms from air pollution would negate benefits from physical activity through cycling only at 1997 air pollution levels and at very high cycling levels (≥9 h of cycling per day. Exposure-based road injury risk decreased between 2007 and 2012, from 0.76 to 0.56 cyclist deaths per 1000 person-hours travelled. Policies to reduce spatial segregation, measures to tackle air pollution, improvements in dedicated cycling infrastructure, and integrating the bicycle with the public transport system in neighborhoods of all income levels could make cycling safer and prevent more individuals from abandoning the cycling mode in São Paulo.

  12. Time-space trends in cancer incidence in The Netherlands in 1989–2003

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siesling, Sabine; van der Aa, Maaike A.; Coebergh, Jan W.W.; Pukkala, Eero

    2008-01-01

    Incidence of cancer may vary within a country and over time because of previous differences in exposure to risk factors or interventions for early detection (screening). This study describes time-space trends of incidence of common cancer sites across the Netherlands during the period 1989–2003 and

  13. Trend analysis of time-series data: A novel method for untargeted metabolite discovery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, S.; Janssen, H.-G.; Vivó-Truyols, G.

    2010-01-01

    A new strategy for biomarker discovery is presented that uses time-series metabolomics data. Data sets from samples analysed at different time points after an intervention are searched for compounds that show a meaningful trend following the intervention. Obviously, this requires new data-analytical

  14. LYSO based precision timing calorimeters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bornheim, A.; Apresyan, A.; Ronzhin, A.; Xie, S.; Duarte, J.; Spiropulu, M.; Trevor, J.; Anderson, D.; Pena, C.; Hassanshahi, M. H.

    2017-11-01

    In this report we outline the study of the development of calorimeter detectors using bright scintillating crystals. We discuss how timing information with a precision of a few tens of pico seconds and below can significantly improve the reconstruction of the physics events under challenging high pileup conditions to be faced at the High-Luminosity LHC or a future hadron collider. The particular challenge in measuring the time of arrival of a high energy photon lies in the stochastic component of the distance of initial conversion and the size of the electromagnetic shower. We present studies and measurements from test beams for calorimeter based timing measurements to explore the ultimate timing precision achievable for high energy photons of 10 GeV and above. We focus on techniques to measure the timing with a high precision in association with the energy of the photon. We present test-beam studies and results on the timing performance and characterization of the time resolution of LYSO-based calorimeters. We demonstrate time resolution of 30 ps is achievable for a particular design.

  15. Extreme Drought-induced Trend Changes in MODIS EVI Time Series in Yunnan, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Kaicheng; Zhou, Tao; Zhao, Xiang

    2014-01-01

    Extreme climatic events triggered by global climate change are expected to increase significantly hence research into vegetation response is crucial to evaluate environmental risk. Yunnan province, locating in southwest China, experienced an extreme drought event (from autumn of 2009 to spring of 2010), with the lowest percentage rainfall anomaly and the longest non-rain days in the past 50 years. This study aimed to explore the characteristics and differences in the response to drought of four land cover types in Yunnan province, including forest, grassland, shrub, and cropland during the period 2001-2011. We used remote sensing data, MODIS-derived EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) to study the vegetation responses to this extreme drought event. The EVI time series were decomposed into trend, seasonal and remainder components using BFAST (Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend) which accounts for seasonality and enables the detection of trend changes within the time series. The preliminary results showed that: (1) BFAST proved to be capable of detecting drought-induced trend changes in EVI time series. (2) Changes in the trend component over time consisted of both gradual and abrupt changes. (3) Different spatial patterns were found for abrupt and gradual changes. (4) Cropland exhibited an abrupt change, due to its sensitivity to severe drought, while the forest seemed least affected by the extreme drought

  16. Time trends in burdens of cadmium, lead, and mercury in the population of northern Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wennberg, Maria; Lundh, Thomas; Bergdahl, Ingvar A.; Hallmans, Goeran; Jansson, Jan-Hakan; Stegmayr, Birgitta; Custodio, Hipolito M.; Skerfving, Staffan

    2006-01-01

    The time trends of exposure to heavy metals are not adequately known. This is a worldwide problem with regard to the basis for preventive actions and evaluation of their effects. This study addresses time trends for the three toxic elements cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), and lead (Pb). Concentrations in erythrocytes (Ery) were determined in a subsample of the population-based MONICA surveys from 1990, 1994, and 1999 in a total of 600 men and women aged 25-74 years. The study took place in the two northernmost counties in Sweden. To assess the effect of changes in the environment, adjustments were made for life-style factors that are determinants of exposure. Annual decreases of 5-6% were seen for Ery-Pb levels (adjusted for age and changes in alcohol intake) and Ery-Hg levels (adjusted for age and changes in fish intake). Ery-Cd levels (adjusted for age) showed a similar significant decrease in smoking men. It is concluded that for Pb and maybe also Hg the actions against pollution during recent decades have caused a rapid decrease of exposure; for Hg the decreased use of dental amalgam may also have had an influence. For Cd, the decline in Ery-Cd was seen only in smokers, indicating that Cd exposure from tobacco has decreased, while other environmental sources of Cd have not changed significantly. To further improve the health status in Sweden, it is important to decrease the pollution of Cd, and actions against smoking in the community are important

  17. Analysis of hydrological trend for radioactivity content in bore-hole water samples using wavelet based denoising

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paul, Sabyasachi; Suman, V.; Sarkar, P.K.; Ranade, A.K.; Pulhani, V.; Dafauti, S.; Datta, D.

    2013-01-01

    A wavelet transform based denoising methodology has been applied to detect the presence of any discernable trend in 137 Cs and 90 Sr activity levels in bore-hole water samples collected four times a year over a period of eight years, from 2002 to 2009, in the vicinity of typical nuclear facilities inside the restricted access zones. The conventional non-parametric methods viz., Mann–Kendall and Spearman rho, along with linear regression when applied for detecting the linear trend in the time series data do not yield results conclusive for trend detection with a confidence of 95% for most of the samples. The stationary wavelet based hard thresholding data pruning method with Haar as the analyzing wavelet was applied to remove the noise present in the same data. Results indicate that confidence interval of the established trend has significantly improved after pre-processing to more than 98% compared to the conventional non-parametric methods when applied to direct measurements. -- Highlights: ► Environmental trend analysis with wavelet pre-processing was carried out. ► Removal of local fluctuations to obtain the trend in a time series with various mother wavelets. ► Theoretical validation of the methodology with model outputs. ► Efficient detection of trend for 137 Cs, 90 Sr in bore-hole water samples improves the associated confidence interval to more than 98%. ► Wavelet based pre-processing reduces the indecisive nature of the detected trend

  18. Worldwide incidence of malaria in 2009: estimates, time trends, and a critique of methods.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard E Cibulskis

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Measuring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 6, including estimates of, and time trends in, the number of malaria cases, has relied on risk maps constructed from surveys of parasite prevalence, and on routine case reports compiled by health ministries. Here we present a critique of both methods, illustrated with national incidence estimates for 2009. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We compiled information on the number of cases reported by National Malaria Control Programs in 99 countries with ongoing malaria transmission. For 71 countries we estimated the total incidence of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax by adjusting the number of reported cases using data on reporting completeness, the proportion of suspects that are parasite-positive, the proportion of confirmed cases due to each Plasmodium species, and the extent to which patients use public sector health facilities. All four factors varied markedly among countries and regions. For 28 African countries with less reliable routine surveillance data, we estimated the number of cases from model-based methods that link measures of malaria transmission with case incidence. In 2009, 98% of cases were due to P. falciparum in Africa and 65% in other regions. There were an estimated 225 million malaria cases (5th-95th centiles, 146-316 million worldwide, 176 (110-248 million in the African region, and 49 (36-68 million elsewhere. Our estimates are lower than other published figures, especially survey-based estimates for non-African countries. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of malaria incidence derived from routine surveillance data were typically lower than those derived from surveys of parasite prevalence. Carefully interpreted surveillance data can be used to monitor malaria trends in response to control efforts, and to highlight areas where malaria programs and health information systems need to be strengthened. As malaria incidence declines around the world, evaluation of control efforts

  19. Empirical mode decomposition and k-nearest embedding vectors for timely analyses of antibiotic resistance trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas Teodoro

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Antibiotic resistance is a major worldwide public health concern. In clinical settings, timely antibiotic resistance information is key for care providers as it allows appropriate targeted treatment or improved empirical treatment when the specific results of the patient are not yet available. OBJECTIVE: To improve antibiotic resistance trend analysis algorithms by building a novel, fully data-driven forecasting method from the combination of trend extraction and machine learning models for enhanced biosurveillance systems. METHODS: We investigate a robust model for extraction and forecasting of antibiotic resistance trends using a decade of microbiology data. Our method consists of breaking down the resistance time series into independent oscillatory components via the empirical mode decomposition technique. The resulting waveforms describing intrinsic resistance trends serve as the input for the forecasting algorithm. The algorithm applies the delay coordinate embedding theorem together with the k-nearest neighbor framework to project mappings from past events into the future dimension and estimate the resistance levels. RESULTS: The algorithms that decompose the resistance time series and filter out high frequency components showed statistically significant performance improvements in comparison with a benchmark random walk model. We present further qualitative use-cases of antibiotic resistance trend extraction, where empirical mode decomposition was applied to highlight the specificities of the resistance trends. CONCLUSION: The decomposition of the raw signal was found not only to yield valuable insight into the resistance evolution, but also to produce novel models of resistance forecasters with boosted prediction performance, which could be utilized as a complementary method in the analysis of antibiotic resistance trends.

  20. Shifting trends: detecting environmentally mediated regulation in long-lived marine vertebrates using time-series data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, Clive R; Bester, Marthán N; Hindell, Mark A; Brook, Barry W; Bradshaw, Corey J A

    2009-02-01

    Assessing the status and trends in animal populations is essential for effective species conservation and management practices. However, unless time-series abundance data demonstrate rapid and reliable fluctuations, objective appraisal of directionality of trends is problematic. We adopted a multiple-working hypotheses approach based on information-theoretic and Bayesian multi-model inference to examine the population trends and form of intrinsic regulation demonstrated by a long-lived species, the southern elephant seal. We also determined the evidence for density dependence in 11 other well-studied marine mammal species. (1) We tested the type of population regulation for elephant seals from Marion Island (1986-2004) and from 11 other marine mammal species, and (2) we described the trends and behavior of the 19-year population time series at Marion Island to identify changes in population trends. We contrasted five plausible trend models using information-theoretic and Bayesian-inference estimates of model parsimony. Our analyses identified two distinct phases of population growth for this population with the inflexion occurring in 1998. Thus, the population decreased between 1986 and 1997 (-3.7% per annum) and increased between 1997 and 2004 (1.9% per annum). An index of environmental stochasticity, the Southern Oscillation Index, explained some of the variance in r and N. We determined analytically that there was good evidence for density dependence in the Marion Island population and that density dependence was widespread among marine mammal species (67% of species showed evidence for population regulation). This approach demonstrates the potential functionality of a relatively simple technique that can be applied to short time series to identify the type of regulation, and the uncertainty associated with the phenomenon, operating in populations of large mammals.

  1. Arresting Strategy Based on Dynamic Criminal Networks Changing over Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junqing Yuan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate a sequence of dynamic criminal networks on a time series based on the dynamic network analysis (DNA. According to the change of networks’ structure, networks’ variation trend is analyzed to forecast its future structure. Finally, an optimal arresting time and priority list are designed based on our analysis. Better results can be expected than that based on social network analysis (SNA.

  2. Deep Temporal-Recurrent-Replicated-Softmax for Topical Trends over Time

    OpenAIRE

    Gupta, Pankaj; Rajaram, Subburam; Schütze, Hinrich; Andrassy, Bernt

    2017-01-01

    Dynamic topic modeling facilitates the identification of topical trends over time in temporal collections of unstructured documents. We introduce a novel unsupervised neural dynamic topic model known as Recurrent Neural Network-Replicated Softmax Model (RNNRSM), where the discovered topics at each time influence the topic discovery in the subsequent time steps. We account for the temporal ordering of documents by explicitly modeling a joint distribution of latent topical dependencies over tim...

  3. Spatio-temporal trend analysis of precipitation in Guizhou province based on GIS technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jianfeng; Zhang, Fengtai; Pan, Yuanfen; Li, Wei; Cao, Guangjie; An, Youzhi

    2018-02-01

    Precipitation changes are closely related to human production and life. Based on the data of Guizhou Province from 1998 to 2012, the temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation in Guizhou Province were analyzed from the annual, seasonal and monthly scales by linear trend analysis and ArcGIS kriging spatial interpolation. The results show that the annual precipitation is mainly concentrated in the summer, accounting for 47.6% of the year, followed by spring accounted for 26.9%, autumn accounted for 18.6% in winter accounted for 6.9%. In the time, the precipitation in the study area shows a decreasing trend in the annual scale, seasonal scale and July. The overall spatial precipitation distribution shows a decreasing trend from the east to the west. The precipitation also in the south is higher than the northern region.

  4. Hydrologic Response to Climate Change: Missing Precipitation Data Matters for Computed Timing Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, B.

    2016-12-01

    This work demonstrates the derivation of climate timing statistics and applying them to determine resulting hydroclimate impacts. Long-term daily precipitation observations from 50 California stations were used to compute climate trends of precipitation event Intensity, event Duration and Pause between events. Each precipitation event trend was then applied as input to a PRMS hydrology model which showed hydrology changes to recharge, baseflow, streamflow, etc. An important concern was precipitation uncertainty induced by missing observation values and causing errors in quantification of precipitation trends. Many standard statistical techniques such as ARIMA and simple endogenous or even exogenous imputation were applied but failed to help resolve these uncertainties. What helped resolve these uncertainties was use of multiple imputation techniques. This involved fitting of Weibull probability distributions to multiple imputed values for the three precipitation trends.Permutation resampling techniques using Monte Carlo processing were then applied to the multiple imputation values to derive significance p-values for each trend. Significance at the 95% level for Intensity was found for 11 of the 50 stations, Duration from 16 of the 50, and Pause from 19, of which 12 were 99% significant. The significance weighted trends for California are Intensity -4.61% per decade, Duration +3.49% per decade, and Pause +3.58% per decade. Two California basins with PRMS hydrologic models were studied: Feather River in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains and the central coast Soquel-Aptos. Each local trend was changed without changing the other trends or the total precipitation. Feather River Basin's critical supply to Lake Oroville and the State Water Project benefited from a total streamflow increase of 1.5%. The Soquel-Aptos Basin water supply was impacted by a total groundwater recharge decrease of -7.5% and streamflow decrease of -3.2%.

  5. 45-Year trends in women's use of time and household management energy expenditure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Archer

    Full Text Available CONTEXT: Relationships between socio-environmental factors and obesity are poorly understood due to a dearth of longitudinal population-level research. The objective of this analysis was to examine 45-year trends in time-use, household management (HM and energy expenditure in women. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: Using national time-use data from women 19-64 years of age, we quantified time allocation and household management energy expenditure (HMEE from 1965 to 2010. HM was defined as the sum of time spent in food preparation, post-meal cleaning activities (e.g., dish-washing, clothing maintenance (e.g., laundry, and general housework. HMEE was calculated using body weights from national surveys and metabolic equivalents. RESULTS: The time allocated to HM by women (19-64 yrs decreased from 25.7 hr/week in 1965 to 13.3 hr/week in 2010 (P<0.001, with non-employed women decreasing by 16.6 hr/week and employed women by 6.7 hr/week (P<0.001. HMEE for non-employed women decreased 42% from 25.1 Mj/week (6004 kilocalories per week in 1965 to 14.6 Mj/week (3486 kcal/week in 2010, a decrement of 10.5 Mj/week or 1.5 Mj/day (2518 kcal/week; 360 kcal/day (P<0.001, whereas employed women demonstrated a 30% decrement of 3.9 Mj/week, 0.55 Mj/day (923 kcal/week, 132 kcal/day (P<0.001. The time women spent in screen-based media use increased from 8.3 hr/week in 1965 to 16.5 hr/week in 2010 (P<0.001, with non-employed women increasing 9.6 hr/week and employed women 7.5 hr/week (P<0.001. CONCLUSIONS: From 1965 to 2010, there was a large and significant decrease in the time allocated to HM. By 2010, women allocated 25% more time to screen-based media use than HM (i.e., cooking, cleaning, and laundry combined. The reallocation of time from active pursuits (i.e., housework to sedentary pastimes (e.g., watching TV has important health consequences. These results suggest that the decrement in HMEE may have contributed to the increasing prevalence of obesity in women during

  6. Trend analysis of the 20 years time series of stratospheric ozone profiles observed by the GROMOS microwave radiometer at Bern

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, L.; Hocke, K.; Eckert, E.; von Clarmann, T.; Kämpfer, N.

    2015-06-01

    The ozone radiometer GROMOS (GROund-based Millimeterwave Ozone Spectrometer) performs continuous observations of stratospheric ozone profiles since 1994 above Bern, Switzerland. GROMOS is part of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). From November 1994 to October 2011, the ozone line spectra were measured by a filter bench (FB). In July 2009, a Fast-Fourier-Transform spectrometer (FFTS) has been added as backend to GROMOS. The new FFTS and the original FB measured in parallel for over two years. The ozone profiles retrieved separately from the ozone line spectra of FB and FFTS agree within 5 % at pressure levels from 30 to 0.5 hPa, from October 2009 to August 2011. A careful harmonisation of both time series has been carried out by taking the FFTS as the reference instrument for the FB. This enables us to assess the long-term trend derived from more than 20 years of stratospheric ozone observations at Bern. The trend analysis has been performed by using a robust multilinear parametric trend model which includes a linear term, the solar variability, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), the annual and semi-annual oscillation and several harmonics with period lengths between 3 and 24 months. Over the last years, some experimental and modelling trend studies have shown that the stratospheric ozone trend is levelling off or even turning positive. With our observed ozone profiles, we are able to support this statement by reporting a statistically significant trend of +3.14 % decade-1 at 4.36 hPa, covering the period from January 1997 to January 2015, above Bern. Additionally, we have estimated a negative trend over this period of -3.94 % decade-1 at 0.2 hPa.

  7. Trend analysis of the 20-year time series of stratospheric ozone profiles observed by the GROMOS microwave radiometer at Bern

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, L.; Hocke, K.; Eckert, E.; von Clarmann, T.; Kämpfer, N.

    2015-10-01

    The ozone radiometer GROMOS (GROund-based Millimeter-wave Ozone Spectrometer) has been performing continuous observations of stratospheric ozone profiles since 1994 above Bern, Switzerland (46.95° N, 7.44° E, 577 m). GROMOS is part of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). From November 1994 to October 2011, the ozone line spectra were measured by a filter bench (FB). In July 2009, a fast Fourier transform spectrometer (FFTS) was added as a back end to GROMOS. The new FFTS and the original FB measured in parallel for over 2 years. The ozone profiles retrieved separately from the ozone line spectra of FB and FFTS agree within 5 % at pressure levels from 30 to 0.5 hPa, from October 2009 to August 2011. A careful harmonisation of both time series has been carried out by taking the FFTS as the reference instrument for the FB. This enables us to assess the long-term trend derived from stratospheric ozone observations at Bern. The trend analysis was performed by using a robust multilinear parametric trend model which includes a linear term, the solar variability, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), the annual and semi-annual oscillation and several harmonics with period lengths between 3 and 24 months. Over the last years, some experimental and modelling trend studies have shown that the stratospheric ozone trend is levelling off or even turning positive. With our observed ozone profiles, we are able to support this statement by reporting a statistically significant trend of +3.14 % decade-1 at 4.36 hPa (37.76 km), covering the period from January 1997 to January 2015, above Bern. Additionally, we have estimated a negative trend over this period of -3.94 % decade-1 at 0.2 hPa (59 km).

  8. A Google Trends-based approach for monitoring NSSI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bragazzi NL

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Nicola Luigi Bragazzi DINOGMI, Department of Neuroscience, Rehabilitation, Ophthalmology, Genetics, Maternal and Child Health, Section of Psychiatry, University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy Abstract: Non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI is an intentional, direct, and socially unacceptable behavior resulting in the destruction of one's own body tissues with no intention of dying or committing suicide, even though it is associated with a higher risk of attempted, planned, or just considered suicide. In this preliminary report, we introduce the concept of “NSSI 2.0”; that is to say, the study of the Internet usage by subjects with NSSI, and we introduce a Google Trends-based approach for monitoring NSSI, called NSSI infodemiology and infoveillance. Despite some limitations, Google Trends has already proven to be reliable for infectious diseases monitoring, and here we extend its application and potentiality in the field of suicidology. Ad hoc web portals and surveys could be designed in light of the reported results for helping people with NSSI. Keywords: infodemiology, infoveillance, Internet, non-suicidal self-injury

  9. Time-trends in assisted and unassisted suicides completed with different methods: Swiss National Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steck, Nicole; Zwahlen, Marcel; Egger, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    The number of suicides assisted by right-to-die associations has increased in recent years in Switzerland. The aim of our study was to compare time trends in rates of assisted and unassisted suicide from 1991-2008. The Swiss National Cohort is a longitudinal study of mortality in the Swiss population; based on linkage of census data with mortality records up to 2008. The Federal Statistical Office coded suspected assisted suicides from 1998 onwards; and from 2003 onwards right-to-die associations reported the suicides they assisted. We used Poisson regression to analyse trends in rates of suicide per 100'000 person-years, by gender and age groups (15-34, 35-64, 65-94 years). A total of 7'940'297 individuals and 24'842 suicides were included. In women, rates changed little in the younger age groups but increased in 65-94-year-olds, due to an increase in suicide by poisoning (from 5.1 to 17.2 per 100'000; p suicides by poisoning was also observed in older men (from 8.6 to 18.2; psuicides by poisoning were assisted. In men, suicide rates declined in all age groups, driven by declines in suicide with firearms. Research is needed to gain a better understanding of the reasons for the tripling of assisted suicide rates in older women, and the doubling of rates in older men, of attitudes and vulnerabilities of those choosing assisted suicide, and of access to palliative care. Rates of assisted suicide should be monitored; including data on patient characteristics and underlying comorbidities.

  10. Preterm birth time trends in Europe: A study of 19 countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeitlin, J.; Szamotulska, K.; Drewniak, N.; Mohangoo, A.D.; Chalmers, J.; Sakkeus, L.; Irgens, L.; Gatt, M.; Gissler, M.; Blondel, B.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To investigate time trends in preterm birth in Europe by multiplicity, gestational age, and onset of delivery. Design Analysis of aggregate data from routine sources. Setting Nineteen European countries. Population Live births in 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008. Methods Annual risk ratios of

  11. Time trends of perfluorinated alkyl acids in serum from Danish pregnant women 2008-2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard-Olesen, Christian; Bach, Cathrine C; Long, Manhai

    2016-01-01

    for sixteen PFAAs using solid phase extraction and liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). We investigated the time trends for seven PFAAs, which were detected in more than 50% of the samples: perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), perfluoroheptane sulfonate (PFHpS), perfluorooctane sulfonate...

  12. Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

    2008-01-01

    different methods. As a result, conclusions from data comparisons have not been consistent. An expert panel was asked to evaluate the weight of evidence for whether the data, collected from 1940 to 1994, are sufficient to suggest or establish a secular trend in the timing of puberty markers in US boys...

  13. Reference population for international comparisons and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery proportions in three countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morken, N.H.; Vogel, I.; Kallen, K.

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: International comparison and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery rates is complex. New techniques that could facilitate interpretation of such rates are needed. METHODS: We studied all live births and stillbirths (>or= 28 weeks gestation) registered in the medical birth...

  14. Prediction of time trends in recovery of cognitive function after mild head injury

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Kay; Ingebrigtsen, Tor; Wilsgaard, Tom

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate relations between predictors and outcomes, and especially to identify predictors influencing the time trend in recovery after mild traumatic brain injury. METHODS: We included 59 patients with mild head injury in a prospective study. They underwent comprehensive assessme...

  15. Socioeconomic differentials in mortality among men within Great Britain: time trends and contributory causes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marang-van de Mheen, P. J.; Davey Smith, G.; Hart, C. L.; Gunning-Schepers, L. J.

    1998-01-01

    To assess the size of mortality differentials in men by social class in Scotland as compared with England and Wales, and to analyse the time trends in these differentials. Men from England and Wales and Scotland around each census from 1951 to 1981. Poisson regression analysis was used to calculate

  16. Time series analysis of malaria in Afghanistan: using ARIMA models to predict future trends in incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwar, Mohammad Y; Lewnard, Joseph A; Parikh, Sunil; Pitzer, Virginia E

    2016-11-22

    Malaria remains endemic in Afghanistan. National control and prevention strategies would be greatly enhanced through a better ability to forecast future trends in disease incidence. It is, therefore, of interest to develop a predictive tool for malaria patterns based on the current passive and affordable surveillance system in this resource-limited region. This study employs data from Ministry of Public Health monthly reports from January 2005 to September 2015. Malaria incidence in Afghanistan was forecasted using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in order to build a predictive tool for malaria surveillance. Environmental and climate data were incorporated to assess whether they improve predictive power of models. Two models were identified, each appropriate for different time horizons. For near-term forecasts, malaria incidence can be predicted based on the number of cases in the four previous months and 12 months prior (Model 1); for longer-term prediction, malaria incidence can be predicted using the rates 1 and 12 months prior (Model 2). Next, climate and environmental variables were incorporated to assess whether the predictive power of proposed models could be improved. Enhanced vegetation index was found to have increased the predictive accuracy of longer-term forecasts. Results indicate ARIMA models can be applied to forecast malaria patterns in Afghanistan, complementing current surveillance systems. The models provide a means to better understand malaria dynamics in a resource-limited context with minimal data input, yielding forecasts that can be used for public health planning at the national level.

  17. Chronological bias in randomized clinical trials arising from different types of unobserved time trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamm, M; Hilgers, R-D

    2014-01-01

    In clinical trials patients are commonly recruited sequentially over time incurring the risk of chronological bias due to (unobserved) time trends. To minimize the risk of chronological bias, a suitable randomization procedure should be chosen. Considering different time trend scenarios, we aim at a detailed evaluation of the extent of chronological bias under permuted block randomization in order to provide recommendations regarding the choice of randomization at the design stage of a clinical trial and to assess the maximum extent of bias for a realized sequence in the analysis stage. For the assessment of chronological bias we consider linear, logarithmic and stepwise trends illustrating typical changes during recruitment in clinical practice. Bias and variance of the treatment effect estimator as well as the empirical type I error rate when applying the t-test are investigated. Different sample sizes, block sizes and strengths of time trends are considered. Using large block sizes, a notable bias exists in the estimate of the treatment effect for specific sequences. This results in a heavily inflated type I error for realized worst-case sequences and an enlarged mean squared error of the treatment effect estimator. Decreasing the block size restricts these effects of time trends. Already applying permuted block randomization with two blocks instead of the random allocation rule achieves a good reduction of the mean squared error and of the inflated type I error. Averaged over all sequences, the type I error of the t-test is far below the nominal significance level due to an overestimated variance. Unobserved time trends can induce a strong bias in the treatment effect estimate and in the test decision. Therefore, already in the design stage of a clinical trial a suitable randomization procedure should be chosen. According to our results, small block sizes should be preferred, but also medium block sizes are sufficient to restrict chronological bias to an

  18. Adding trend data to Depletion-Based Stock Reduction Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Bayesian model of Depletion-Based Stock Reduction Analysis (DB-SRA), informed by a time series of abundance indexes, was developed, using the Sampling Importance...

  19. A Global Perspective on Trends in Nature-Based Tourism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balmford, Andrew; Beresford, James; Green, Jonathan; Naidoo, Robin; Walpole, Matt; Manica, Andrea

    2009-01-01

    Reports of rapid growth in nature-based tourism and recreation add significant weight to the economic case for biodiversity conservation but seem to contradict widely voiced concerns that people are becoming increasingly isolated from nature. This apparent paradox has been highlighted by a recent study showing that on a per capita basis, visits to natural areas in the United States and Japan have declined over the last two decades. These results have been cited as evidence of “a fundamental and pervasive shift away from nature-based recreation”—but how widespread is this phenomenon? We address this question by looking at temporal trends in visitor numbers at 280 protected areas (PAs) from 20 countries. This more geographically representative dataset shows that while PA visitation (whether measured as total or per capita visit numbers) is indeed declining in the United States and Japan, it is generally increasing elsewhere. Total visit numbers are growing in 15 of the 20 countries for which we could get data, with the median national rate of change unrelated to the national rate of population growth but negatively associated with wealth. Reasons for this reversal of growth in the richest countries are difficult to pin down with existing data, but the pattern is mirrored by trends in international tourist arrivals as a whole and so may not necessarily be caused by disaffection with nature. Irrespective of the explanation, it is clear that despite important downturns in some countries, nature-related tourism is far from declining everywhere, and may still have considerable potential both to generate funds for conservation and to shape people's attitudes to the environment. PMID:19564896

  20. Time and age trends in morning and evening protein intakes of German children and adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roßbach, Sarah; Diederichs, Tanja; Herder, Christian; Buyken, Anette E; Alexy, Ute

    2018-01-01

    The present study describes time and age trends in morning and evening protein intakes and sources among German children and adolescents from 1985 to 2014. A total of 9757 three-day weighed dietary records of 1246 3- to 18-year-old participants of the Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed (DONALD) study were analysed using polynomial mixed-effects regression models. Morning protein intake increased over the study period by approximately 1 % of morning energy intake (linear trend P morning and evening protein intakes increased modestly between 1985 and 2014; these increases were, however, not accompanied by increases in traditional protein sources (i.e. meat or dairy products).

  1. NOAA Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry Sea Level Rise Products: Global and regional sea level time series and trend maps for the major ocean basins and marginal seas, based on measurements from satellite radar altimeters, from 1992-12-17 to 2017-08-11 (NCEI Accession 0125535)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This archival package contains global and regional mean sea level time series and trend maps calculated on a continual basis since December 1992 by Laboratory for...

  2. Spatiotemporal Trends in the Timing and Volume of Snowfall in High Mountain Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Taylor; Bookhagen, Bodo

    2017-04-01

    High Mountain Asia, which encompasses the Himalaya, Karakoram, Pamir, Tien Shan, and the Tibetan Plateau, is the primary 'water tower' for much of Asia, serving more than a billion downstream users. Many catchments receive the majority of their yearly water budget in the form of snow - the vast majority of which is not monitored by sparse weather networks in the region. We leverage passive microwave data, flown on five sensors (SSMI, AMSR-E, SSMIS, AMSR2, and GPM, 1987-2016), to examine trends in the timing, volume, and spatial distribution of snowfall. While the total volume of water stored in snowpack has decreased over the study period, this large-scale water-storage loss hides small-scale and seasonal complexities. Some regions, such as the high Tien Shan and Kunlun Shan, have seen increased snow-water storage. Other regions, such as the Pamir and Karakorum, have seen increases in winter snow-water storage, coupled with decreases in summer snow-water storage, implying an intensification of winter storms alongside more rapid spring and summer snowmelt. We also note a non-linear elevation trend, where the mid-elevation zones show the largest negative snow-water storage trends, implying that these areas are the most strongly impacted by increasing temperatures in the region. Our study provides a first-order examination of snow-water trends in High Mountain Asia, and highlights that both small and large-scale snow trends must be considered for effective water planning.

  3. Gender Differences Time Trends for Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components among Tehranian Children and Adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Barzin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims. To investigate the trend of metabolic syndrome and its components in Tehran children and adolescents during a median followup of 6.6 years. Methods. Data from 1999–2001 (phase I, 2002–2005 (phase II, and 2006–2008 (phase III of the Tehran, Lipid and Glucose Study were analyzed (=5439; age 6–18 years for the trend of metabolic syndrome (MetS and its components. General estimation equation (GEE models were used to analyze this correlated data. Results. The crude prevalence of MetS for boys at baseline was 13.2%, which increased to 16.4% in the third phase. In girls, the prevalence of Mets decreased from 11.8% at baseline to 6% during followup. The odd ratios (OR of obesity over the whole study period were raised in both sexes. The OR of abdominal obesity increased significantly in boys, but no change was observed in girls. No significant OR was observed in boys, while OR for MetS was shown to have a decreasing trend in girls during the followup. In the three time points, the ORs of MetS decreased significantly in girls but no significant difference was observed in boys. Conclusion. Inspite of increasing trend for obesity in both sexes, the trend of MetS decreased in girls and was relatively stable in boys, in Tehranian children, and adolescents.

  4. Trends in Flow-based Biosensing Systems for Pesticide Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Louis Marty

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available This review gives a survey on the state of the art of pesticide detection usingflow-based biosensing systems for sample screening. Although immunosensor systems havebeen proposed as powerful pesticide monitoring tools, this review is mainly focused onenzyme-based biosensors, as they are the most commonly employed when using a flowsystem. Among the different detection methods able to be integrated into flow-injectionanalysis (FIA systems, the electrochemical ones will be treated in more detail, due to theirhigh sensitivity, simple sample pretreatment, easy operational procedures and real-timedetection. During the last decade, new trends have been emerging in order to increase theenzyme stability, the sensitivity and selectivity of the measurements, and to lower thedetection limits. These approaches are based on (i the design of novel matrices for enzymeimmobilisation, (ii new manifold configurations of the FIA system, sometimes includingminiaturisation or lab-on-chip protocols thanks to micromachining technology, (iii the useof cholinesterase enzymes either from various commercial sources or genetically modifiedwith the aim of being more sensitive, (iv the incorporation of other highly specificenzymes, such as organophosphate hydrolase (OPH or parathion hydrolase (PH and (v thecombination of different electrochemical methods of detection. This article discusses thesenovel strategies and their advantages and limitations.

  5. Frequency, distribution and time trends of types of leisure-time physical activity in Brazil, 2006-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Sa, Thiago Herick; Garcia, Leandro Martin Totaro; Claro, Rafael Moreira

    2014-12-01

    To describe the frequency and the distribution of the main types of leisure time physical activity (LTPA) practiced by Brazilian adults in 2012 and to observe their time trends from 2006 to 2012. Cross-sectional data from the Brazilian surveillance system of risk and protective factors for non-transmissible chronic diseases from 2006 to 2012 (around 54,000 adults aged 18 years or older in all Brazilian State capitals interviewed yearly). Participants were asked whether they had practiced any type of exercise or sport in the last 3 months, and if so which type. Linear regression was used to identify trends of the five most cited LTPA. In 2012, walking was reported as the main LTPA (18.1 %), followed by strength training/gymnastics (11.2 %) and football (7.2 %). Time-trend analysis showed reduction in football (9.1-7.2 %; p = 0.004, β = -0.25, R(2) = 0.79) and increase in strength training/gymnastics (7.9-11.2 %; p = 0.02, β = 0.50, R(2) = 0.62) and running (1.7-3.1 %; p < 0.001, β = 0.22, R(2) = 0.93). Walking was the main type of LTPA. Patterns of LTPA types remained relatively stable over the last 7 years.

  6. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis

    2016-01-01

    Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions. PMID:26987606

  7. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jae-Won; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Honda, Yasushi; Ha, Mina; Kim, Ho; Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis; Mueller, Ivo

    2016-01-01

    This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

  8. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Won Park

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021, and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

  9. Trends in U.S. adult chronic disability rates over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kurtz, Stephen G; Rao, Sowmya R

    2014-10-01

    Trends in the patterns and prevalence of chronic disability among U.S. residents carry important implications for public health and public policies across multiple societal sectors. To examine trends in U.S. adult population rates of chronic disability from 1998 to 2011 using 7 different disability measures and examining the implications of trends in population age, race and ethnicity, and body mass index (BMI). We used National Health Interview Survey data on civilian, non-institutionalized U.S. residents ages ≥ 18 from selected years between 1998 and 2011. We used self-reported information on functional impairments, activity/participation limitations, and expected duration to create 7 chronic disability measures. We used direct standardization to account for changes in age, race/ethnicity, and BMI distributions over time. Multivariable logistic regression models identified associations of disability with sociodemographic characteristics. Without adjustment, population rates of all 7 disabilities increased significantly (p disability types continued to show increased rates over time (p disability. If these trends continue, the numbers and proportions of U.S. residents with various disabilities will continue rising in coming years. In particular, the prevalence of movement difficulties and work limitations will increase. Furthermore, disability will remain strongly associated with low levels of education, employment, and income. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Mapping Mountain Pine Beetle Mortality through Growth Trend Analysis of Time-Series Landsat Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Liang

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Disturbances are key processes in the carbon cycle of forests and other ecosystems. In recent decades, mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae outbreaks have become more frequent and extensive in western North America. Remote sensing has the ability to fill the data gaps of long-term infestation monitoring, but the elimination of observational noise and attributing changes quantitatively are two main challenges in its effective application. Here, we present a forest growth trend analysis method that integrates Landsat temporal trajectories and decision tree techniques to derive annual forest disturbance maps over an 11-year period. The temporal trajectory component successfully captures the disturbance events as represented by spectral segments, whereas decision tree modeling efficiently recognizes and attributes events based upon the characteristics of the segments. Validated against a point set sampled across a gradient of MPB mortality, 86.74% to 94.00% overall accuracy was achieved with small variability in accuracy among years. In contrast, the overall accuracies of single-date classifications ranged from 37.20% to 75.20% and only become comparable with our approach when the training sample size was increased at least four-fold. This demonstrates that the advantages of this time series work flow exist in its small training sample size requirement. The easily understandable, interpretable and modifiable characteristics of our approach suggest that it could be applicable to other ecoregions.

  11. Hybrid model for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and salendar variation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhartono; Rahayu, S. P.; Prastyo, D. D.; Wijayanti, D. G. P.; Juliyanto

    2017-09-01

    Most of the monthly time series data in economics and business in Indonesia and other Moslem countries not only contain trend and seasonal, but also affected by two types of calendar variation effects, i.e. the effect of the number of working days or trading and holiday effects. The purpose of this research is to develop a hybrid model or a combination of several forecasting models to predict time series that contain trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. This hybrid model is a combination of classical models (namely time series regression and ARIMA model) and/or modern methods (artificial intelligence method, i.e. Artificial Neural Networks). A simulation study was used to show that the proposed procedure for building the hybrid model could work well for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. Furthermore, the proposed hybrid model is applied for forecasting real data, i.e. monthly data about inflow and outflow of currency at Bank Indonesia. The results show that the hybrid model tend to provide more accurate forecasts than individual forecasting models. Moreover, this result is also in line with the third results of the M3 competition, i.e. the hybrid model on average provides a more accurate forecast than the individual model.

  12. Evaluation of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone trends over Western Europe from ground-based FTIR network observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Vigouroux

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Within the European project UFTIR (Time series of Upper Free Troposphere observations from an European ground-based FTIR network, six ground-based stations in Western Europe, from 79° N to 28° N, all equipped with Fourier Transform infrared (FTIR instruments and part of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC, have joined their efforts to evaluate the trends of several direct and indirect greenhouse gases over the period 1995–2004. The retrievals of CO, CH4, C2H6, N2O, CHClF2, and O3 have been optimized. Using the optimal estimation method, some vertical information can be obtained in addition to total column amounts. A bootstrap resampling method has been implemented to determine annual partial and total column trends for the target gases. The present work focuses on the ozone results. The retrieved time series of partial and total ozone columns are validated with ground-based correlative data (Brewer, Dobson, UV-Vis, ozonesondes, and Lidar. The observed total column ozone trends are in agreement with previous studies: 1 no total column ozone trend is seen at the lowest latitude station Izaña (28° N; 2 slightly positive total column trends are seen at the two mid-latitude stations Zugspitze and Jungfraujoch (47° N, only one of them being significant; 3 the highest latitude stations Harestua (60° N, Kiruna (68° N and Ny-Ålesund (79° N show significant positive total column trends. Following the vertical information contained in the ozone FTIR retrievals, we provide partial columns trends for the layers: ground-10 km, 10–18 km, 18–27 km, and 27–42 km, which helps to distinguish the contributions from dynamical and chemical changes on the total column ozone trends. We obtain no statistically significant trends in the ground-10 km layer for five out of the six ground-based stations. We find significant positive trends for the lowermost

  13. Monitoring Trends in Light Pollution in China Based on Nighttime Satellite Imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengpeng Han

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available China is the largest developing country worldwide, with rapid economic growth and the highest population. Light pollution is an environmental factor that significantly influences the quality and health of wildlife, as well as the people of any country. The objective of this study is to model the light pollution spatial pattern, and monitor changes in trends of spatial distribution from 1992 to 2012 in China using nighttime light imagery from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Linescan System. Based on the intercalibration of nighttime light imageries of the study area from 1992 to 2012, this study obtained the change trends map. This result shows an increase in light pollution of the study area; light pollution in the spatial scale increased from 2.08% in the period from 1992–1996 to 2000–2004, to 5.64% in the period from 2000–2004 to 2008–2012. However, light pollution change trends presented varying styles in different regions and times. In the 1990s, the increasing trend in light pollution regions mostly occurred in larger urban cities, which are mainly located in eastern and coastal areas, whereas the decreasing trend areas were chiefly industrial and mining cities rich in mineral resources, in addition to the central parts of large cities. Similarly, the increasing trend regions dominated urban cities of the study area, and the expanded direction changed from larger cities to small and middle-sized cities and towns in the 2000s. The percentages of regions where light pollution transformed to severe and slight were 5.64% and 0.39%, respectively. The results can inform and help identify how local economic and environmental decisions influence our global nighttime environment, and assist government agencies in creating environmental protection measures.

  14. Time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among Greenland Inuit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, Peter; Larsen, Christina Viskum Lytken

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Suicides remain a major public health problem in Greenland. Their increase coincides with the modernization since 1950. Serious suicidal thoughts are reported by a significant proportion of participants in countrywide surveys. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the time trend by region of suicides...... and suicidal thoughts among the Inuit in Greenland. DESIGN: Data included the Greenland registry of causes of death for 1970-2011 and 2 cross-sectional health surveys carried out in 1993-1994 and 2005-2010 with 1,580 and 3,102 Inuit participants, respectively. RESULTS: Suicide rates were higher among men than...... women while the prevalence of suicidal thoughts was higher among women. Suicide rates for men and women together increased from 1960 to 1980 and have remained around 100 per 100,000 person-years since then. The regional pattern of time trend for suicide rates varied with an early peak in the capital...

  15. The statistics of the time segments of low-frequency microseisms: Trends and synchronization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyubushin, A. A.

    2010-06-01

    The problem of identifying the effects of synchronization in the parameters of low-frequency microseismic noise from the data of 77 stations belonging to the F-net broadband seismograph network in Japan for the period from the beginning of 1997 through August, 2009 is considered. The vertical components measured initially with a sampling rate of one second and subsequently converted into the signals sampled at 1 minute intervals by means of averaging and decimation are used in the analysis. Six statistics are taken as the parameters: the support width of the multifractal singularity spectrum; the generalized Hurst exponent; the asymmetry coefficient of the spectrum of singularity; the logarithmic variance; the spectral exponent; and the linear predictability index. These parameters are calculated from the realizations contained within consecutive daily time intervals. When using the moving time window with a width of one year for evaluating the multiple correlation, the daily variations in the median values of the statistics of the noise measured at five spatial clusters of stations exhibit a stable increase in the synchronization not long before the Hokkaido earthquake (September 25, 2003; M = 8.3), subsequently passing to the new level of high synchronization. Based on the analysis of the trends in the index of linear predictability it turned out possible to estimate the beginning of the enhancement in the synchronization with rather high accuracy as the middle of 2002. The effect revealed for the variations in the different parameters of microseisms is an independent argument for the earlier conclusion about the synchronization in the field of the microseismic noise on the Japan Islands.

  16. Rate and Time Trend of Perinatal, Infant, Maternal Mortality, Natality and Natural Population Growth in Kosovo

    OpenAIRE

    Azemi, Mehmedali; Gashi, Sanije; Berisha, Majlinda; Kolgeci, Selim; Ismaili-Jaha, Vlora

    2012-01-01

    Aim: The aim of work has been the presentation of the rate and time trends of some indicators of the heath condition of mothers and children in Kosovo: fetal mortality, early neonatal mortality, perinatal mortality, infant mortality, natality, natural growth of population etc. The treated patients were the newborn and infants in the post neonatal period, women during their pregnancy and those 42 days before and after the delivery. Methods: The data were taken from: register of the patients tr...

  17. Time trends of mercury in feathers of West Greenland birds of prey during 1851-2003.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietz, Rune; Riget, Frank F; Boertmann, David; Sonne, Christian; Olsen, Morten T; Fjeldså, Jon; Falk, Knud; Kirkegaard, Maja; Egevang, Carsten; Asmund, Gert; Wille, Frank; Møller, Søren

    2006-10-01

    Temporal trends of mercury (Hg) in West Greenland gyrfalcons, peregrine falcons, and white-tailed eagles were determined over 150 years from 1851 to 2003. Hg was measured in the fifth primary feather. Results showed that Hg increased in the order gyrfalcon (lowest) < peregrine falcon (intermediate) < white-tailed eagle (highest). All species showed significant age accumulations, which were taken into account in the temporal trend analysis. Of eight time trend analyses (three species and three age groups of which one was missing), seven showed an increase in primary feather concentrations. Of these, four were significant at the 5% level, two were close to being significant, and one was not significant. The linear regressions of which three out of four showed significant increases were for juvenile and immature gyrfalcon and juvenile peregrine falcon, which covered only periods prior to 1960, owing to limited data from the last half-century. The two sample comparisons of Hg 10-year medians for adult peregrine falcons and juvenile and adult white-tailed eagles indicated a continued increase during recent decades. However, low levels of Hg in a few recent collections among gyrfalcons and peregrines could indicate a change in the increasing trend.

  18. Childhood cancer survival in Switzerland (1976-2013): Time-trends and predictors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schindler, Matthias; Belle, Fabiën N; Grotzer, Michael A; von der Weid, Nicolas X; Kuehni, Claudia E

    2017-01-01

    Population-based studies on childhood cancer survival are key to monitor progress against cancer and to detect potential differences between regions and other subgroups in the population. We investigated time trends and factors associated with childhood cancer survival on a national level in Switzerland, from 1976 to 2013. We extracted data from the population-based Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry of 5,776 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer from 1985 to 2014 in Switzerland. We calculated age-adjusted 5-year survival, defined the annual reduction in risk of death (ARR), and explored associations of survival with clinical and demographic factors. Overall, 5-year survival improved significantly, from 64% in 1976-1983 to 88% in 2004-2013. ARR over the whole period was 4% for all diagnostic groups, greatest for Hodgkin lymphomas (8%), ependymomas (6%), Burkitt's lymphomas (6%) and germ cell tumours (6%). Children treated in hospitals without specialised paediatric cancer centre for leukaemia (HR 12.9), lymphoma (HR 5.0) and neuroblastoma (HR 3.7) were at higher risk of death. In French-speaking Switzerland, risk of death was lower for lymphoma (HR 0.6), CNS tumours (HR 0.7) and neuroblastoma (HR 0.5). Children with migration background had a higher risk of death from all tumours except bone tumours. Childhood cancer survival significantly improved from 1976 to 2013, but there is room for further improvement. Survival rates varied by type of clinical treatment, language region and nationality. All paediatric cancer patients should be referred to a specialised paediatric cancer centre. Further research is needed to intervene and completely eliminate inequalities in survival. © 2016 UICC.

  19. Fault trend prediction of device based on support vector regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song Meicun; Cai Qi

    2011-01-01

    The research condition of fault trend prediction and the basic theory of support vector regression (SVR) were introduced. SVR was applied to the fault trend prediction of roller bearing, and compared with other methods (BP neural network, gray model, and gray-AR model). The results show that BP network tends to overlearn and gets into local minimum so that the predictive result is unstable. It also shows that the predictive result of SVR is stabilization, and SVR is superior to BP neural network, gray model and gray-AR model in predictive precision. SVR is a kind of effective method of fault trend prediction. (authors)

  20. Design-based Generalized Least Squares estimation of status and trend of soil properties from monitoring data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brus, D.J.; Gruijter, de J.J.

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces and demonstrates design-based Generalized Least Squares (GLS) estimation of spatial means at selected time points from data collected in repeated soil surveys with partial overlap, such as a rotating and a supplemented panel. The linear time trend of the spatial means can then

  1. Time-trend and variations in the proportion of second-eye cataract surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernal-Delgado Enrique

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite recommendations for greater use of second-eye cataract surgery and the bilateral progression of the disease, there is a substantial proportion of unmet need for this treatment. Few studies have explored the factors associated with second-eye cataract surgery utilisation. The objective of our study was to estimate the proportion of second-eye cataract surgery, evaluate its time-trend, and explore differences in utilisation by patients' gender, age, and region of residence. Methods All senile cataract surgeries performed between 1999 and 2002 in the public health system of Catalonia (Spain were obtained from the Minimum Data Set. The proportion of second-eye surgery from November 2000 to December 2002 was calculated. The time-trend of this proportion was characterised through linear regression models with the logarithmic transformation of time. Results The proportion of second-eye surgery was 30.0% and showed an increasing trend from 24.8% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 21.6; 26.1 in November 2000 to 31.8% (95% CI 31.4; 33.6 in December 2002. This proportion was 1.9% (95% CI 0.9; 2.9 higher in women (p Conclusion We predict greater utilization of second-eye surgery in patients aged 70 to 79 years and in women. A greater increase in the utilisation rates of second-eye surgery is expected in the regions with lower proportions and in older patients. The observed trend suggests that there will be a substantial proportion of unmet need for bilateral surgery.

  2. Understanding NOx emission trends in China based on OMI observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Ga, D.; Smeltzer, C. D.; Yi, R.; Liu, Z.

    2012-12-01

    We analyze OMI observations of NO2 columns over China from 2005 to 2010. Simulations using a regional 3-D chemical transport model (REAM) are used to derive the top-down anthropogenic NOx emissions. The Kendall method is then applied to derive the emission trend. The emission trend is affected by the economic slowdown in 2009. After removing the effect of one year abnormal data, the overall emission trend is 4.35±1.42% per year, which is slower than the linear-regression trend of 5.8-10.8% per year reported for previous years. We find large regional, seasonal, and urban-rural variations in emission trend. The annual emission trends of Northeast China, Central China Plain, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are 44.98±1.39%, 5.24±1.63%, 3.31±1.02% and -4.02±1.87%, respectively. The annual emission trends of four megacities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are 0.7±0.27%, -0.75±0.31%, -4.08±1.21% and -6.22±2.85%,, considerably lower than the regional averages. These results appear to suggest that a number of factors, including migration of high-emission industries, vehicle emission regulations, emission control measures of thermal power plants, increased hydro-power usage, have reduced or reversed the increasing trend of NOx emissions in more economically developed megacities and southern coastal regions.

  3. On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Zhaohua [Florida State University, Department of Meteorology and Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Huang, Norden E. [National Central University, Research Center for Adaptive Data Analysis Center, Chungli (China); Wallace, John M.; Smoliak, Brian V. [University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA (United States); Chen, Xianyao [State Oceanic Administration, The First Institute of Oceanography, Qingdao (China)

    2011-08-15

    The Earth has warmed at an unprecedented pace in the decades of the 1980s and 1990s (IPCC in Climate change 2007: the scientific basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007). In Wu et al. (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:14889-14894, 2007) we showed that the rapidity of the warming in the late twentieth century was a result of concurrence of a secular warming trend and the warming phase of a multidecadal ({proportional_to}65-year period) oscillatory variation and we estimated the contribution of the former to be about 0.08 C per decade since {proportional_to}1980. Here we demonstrate the robustness of those results and discuss their physical links, considering in particular the shape of the secular trend and the spatial patterns associated with the secular trend and the multidecadal variability. The shape of the secular trend and rather globally-uniform spatial pattern associated with it are both suggestive of a response to the buildup of well-mixed greenhouse gases. In contrast, the multidecadal variability tends to be concentrated over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and particularly over the North Atlantic, suggestive of a possible link to low frequency variations in the strength of the thermohaline circulation. Depending upon the assumed importance of the contributions of ocean dynamics and the time-varying aerosol emissions to the observed trends in global-mean surface temperature, we estimate that up to one third of the late twentieth century warming could have been a consequence of natural variability. (orig.)

  4. Time-Trend in Epidemiological and Pathological Features of Schistosoma-Associated Bladder Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ZAGHLOUL, M.S.; EL-BARADIE, M.; NAZMY, M.; NOUH, A.; MONEER, M.; YOUNIS, A.

    2008-01-01

    To investigate the different emerging trends in the features of bladder cancer along 17 years. Patients and Methods: During a 17-year period (1988- 2004), 5071 epithelial bladder cancer patients underwent radical cystectomy at the National Cancer Institute (NCI), Cairo University, Egypt. The time was divided into 3 time periods to detect changes of the clinico pathologic features of patients in these periods. Results: There was a significant progressive increase in the patients' age with time and decrease in squamous/ transitional ratio, with transient increase in male predominance during the 2nd time period. Moreover, there was a decrease in the well differentiated (grade 1) tumor (p<0.001) and an increase in the frequency of pelvic nodal involvement (p<0.001). Transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) patients were significantly older than those with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) (p<0.001). Progressive increase of age with time was evident in TCC, SCC and adenocarcinoma patients. Male to female ratio changed significantly in TCC and SCC. Conclusion: Time trend was confirmed with relative decrease in frequency of SCC and increase of TCC with changes in their pathological details. The differences between their characteristics and that of the Western countries are decreasing.

  5. Time Trends in the Incidence of Parkinson’s Disease: a 30-year Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savica, Rodolfo; Grossardt, Brandon R.; Bower, James H.; Ahlskog, J. Eric; Rocca, Walter A.

    2016-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Changes over time in the incidence of parkinsonism and Parkinson’s disease (PD) remain uncertain. OBJECTIVE To investigate secular trends (period effects) and birth cohort trends in the incidence of parkinsonism and PD over 30 years in a geographically defined American population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We used the medical records-linkage system of the Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP) to identify incidence cases of PD and other types of parkinsonism in Olmsted County, MN, from 1976 to 2005. All cases were classified by a movement disorder specialist using defined criteria through the review of the complete medical records within the system. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Incidence rates of parkinsonism and PD over 30 years. We tested for secular trends (period effects) using negative binomial regression models and for birth cohort effects using age-period-cohort models. RESULTS The overall incidence rates increased significantly over 30 years in men for both parkinsonism (RR 1.17 per decade, 95% CI 1.03-1.33) and PD (RR 1.24 per decade, 95% CI 1.08-1.43). These trends were driven primarily by the older age groups. In particular, for men ≥ 70 years, incidence rates increased for both parkinsonism (RR 1.24 per decade, 95% CI 1.07-1.44) and PD (RR 1.35 per decade, 95% CI 1.10-1.65). The secular trends were not significant for women overall or in age strata. We observed an increased risk for both men and women born in the 1920 cohort (1915-1924). However, this birth cohort effect was significant only for PD and only in men. CONCLUSIONS AND REVELANCE Our study suggests that the incidence of parkinsonism and PD may have increased in recent decades particularly in men 70 years old and older. These trends may be related to the dramatic changes in smoking behavior that took place in the second half of the 20th century. However, the trends could be spurious, and need to be confirmed in other populations. PMID:27323276

  6. Time trends of antidepressant drug prescriptions in men versus women in a geographically defined US population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Wenjun; Kremers, Hilal Maradit; Yawn, Barbara P.; Bobo, William V.; St Sauver, Jennifer L.; Ebbert, Jon O.; Rutten, Lila J.; Jacobson, Debra J.; Brue, Scott M.; Rocca, Walter A.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose To study time trends of antidepressant drug (AD) prescriptions in a geographically defined US population between 2005 and 2011 for men and women separately. Methods Using the Rochester Epidemiology Project medical records-linkage system, we identified all Olmsted County, MN residents who received AD outpatient prescriptions between 2005 and 2011 (seven years). We calculated the annual age-and sex-specific prevalence over seven years, and used generalized estimating equation models to test for time trends. Results The prevalence of subjects receiving at least one AD prescription was approximately two times higher in women than men consistently across the seven years of the study. The standardized annual prevalence increased from 10.8% in 2005 to 14.4% in 2011 overall, from 7.0% in 2005 to 9.9% in 2011 for men, and from 14.4% in 2005 to 18.6% in 2011 for women. The absolute percent increase was greater in women (4.2% vs. 2.9%; standardized); however, the relative percent increase was greater in men (41.4% vs. 29.2%; standardized). The relative percent increase was greater in the age group 65+ years for both men and women. Conclusions AD prescriptions are increasing over time, especially in the elderly. Women receive more AD prescriptions than men. However, the relative increase in AD prescriptions over time is greater in men than women. PMID:25113318

  7. Recent Trends in Field-Effect Transistors-Based Immunosensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Carolina Mazarin de Moraes

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Immunosensors are analytical platforms that detect specific antigen-antibody interactions and play an important role in a wide range of applications in biomedical clinical diagnosis, food safety, and monitoring contaminants in the environment. Field-effect transistors (FET immunosensors have been developed as promising alternatives to conventional immunoassays, which require complicated processes and long-time data acquisition. The electrical signal of FET-based immunosensors is generated as a result of the antigen-antibody conjugation. FET biosensors present real-time and rapid response, require small sample volume, and exhibit higher sensitivity and selectivity. This review brings an overview on the recent literature of FET-based immunosensors, highlighting a diversity of nanomaterials modified with specific receptors as immunosensing platforms for the ultrasensitive detection of various biomolecules.

  8. Time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among Greenland Inuit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerregaard, Peter; Larsen, Christina Viskum Lytken

    2015-01-01

    Suicides remain a major public health problem in Greenland. Their increase coincides with the modernization since 1950. Serious suicidal thoughts are reported by a significant proportion of participants in countrywide surveys. To analyze the time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among the Inuit in Greenland. Data included the Greenland registry of causes of death for 1970-2011 and 2 cross-sectional health surveys carried out in 1993-1994 and 2005-2010 with 1,580 and 3,102 Inuit participants, respectively. Suicide rates were higher among men than women while the prevalence of suicidal thoughts was higher among women. Suicide rates for men and women together increased from 1960 to 1980 and have remained around 100 per 100,000 person-years since then. The regional pattern of time trend for suicide rates varied with an early peak in the capital, a continued increase to very high rates in remote East and North Greenland and a slow increase in villages relative to towns on the West Coast. Suicidal thoughts followed the regional pattern for completed suicides. Especially for women there was a noticeable increasing trend in the villages. The relative risk for suicide was highest among those who reported suicidal thoughts, but most suicides happened outside this high-risk group. Suicide rates and the prevalence of suicidal thoughts remain high in Greenland but different regional trends point towards an increased marginalization between towns on the central West Coast, villages and East and North Greenland. Different temporal patterns call for different regional strategies of prevention.

  9. Time trends in lifetime incidence rates of first-time diagnosed anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa across 16 years in a Danish nationwide psychiatric registry study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Jensen, Christina Mohr

    2015-11-01

    To study recent time trends in the incidence of diagnosed anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN) based on nationwide psychiatric register data. The Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry was used to identify the incidence of diagnosed cases with AN and BN at the ages of 4-65 years from 1995 to 2010. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated and were adjusted for time trends in the total number of people diagnosed in psychiatry. Time trends were analyzed using JoinPoint regression analysis. A total of N = 5,902 persons had a first-time incidence of AN, and a total of N = 5,113 had first-time incidence of BN. Incidence rates increased for AN from 6.4 to 12.6 per 100,000 person-years, and for BN from 6.3 to 7.2 per 100,000 person-years. In 2010, the male-to-female ratio was 1:8 for AN, and 1:20 for BN. There was an earlier onset for AN than for BN, and age at incidence decreased during the observation period for AN but not for BN. A sizeable part of the increasing incidence rates for AN and in particular, the younger AN age groups, could be attributed to an increase in the total number of N = 249,607 persons with first-time diagnoses in psychiatry. Incidence rates had increased slightly for AN, but were stable for BN across 16 years in this nationwide study and to a large extent were reflective of a general increase in diagnosed mental disorders. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. An improved method for Multipath Hemispherical Map (MHM) based on Trend Surface Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhiren; Chen, Wen; Dong, Danan; Yu, Chao

    2017-04-01

    Among various approaches developed for detecting the multipath effect in high-accuracy GNSS positioning, Only MHM (Multipath Hemispherical Map) and SF (Sidereal Filtering) can be implemented to real-time GNSS data processing. SF is based on the time repeatability of satellites which just suitable for static environment, while the spatiotemporal repeatability-based MHM is applicable not only for static environment but also for dynamic carriers with static multipath environment such as ships and airplanes, and utilizes much smaller number of parameters than ASF. However, the MHM method also has certain defects. Since the MHM take the mean of residuals from the grid as the filter value, it is more suitable when the multipath regime is medium to low frequency. Now existing research data indicate that the newly advanced Sidereal Filtering (ASF) method perform better with high frequency multipath reduction than MHM by contrast. To solve the above problem and improve MHM's performance on high frequency multipath, we combined binary trend surface analysis method with original MHM model to effectively analyze particular spatial distribution and variation trends of multipath effect. We computed trend surfaces of the residuals within a grid by least-square procedures, and chose the best results through the moderate successive test. The enhanced MHM grid was constructed from a set of coefficients of the fitted equation instead of mean value. According to the analysis of the actual observation, the improved MHM model shows positive effect on high frequency multipath reduction, and significantly reduced the root mean square (RMS) value of the carrier residuals. Keywords: Trend Surface Analysis; Multipath Hemispherical Map; high frequency multipath effect

  11. Variability and trends of carbon parameters at a time series in the eastern tropical Atlantic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathalie Lefèvre

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Hourly fCO2 is recorded at a time series at the PIRATA buoy located at 6°S 10°W in the eastern tropical Atlantic since June 2006. This site is located south and west of the seasonal Atlantic cold tongue and is affected by its propagation from June to September. Using an alkalinity–salinity relationship determined for the eastern tropical Atlantic and the observed fCO2, pH and the inorganic carbon concentration are calculated. The time series is investigated to explore the intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual timescales for these parameters, and to detect any long-term trends. At intraseasonal timescales, fCO2 and pH are strongly correlated. On seasonal timescales, the correlation still holds between fCO2 and pH and their variations are in agreement with those of sea surface salinity. At interannual timescales, some important differences appear in 2011–2012: lower fCO2 and fluxes are observed from September to December 2011 and are explained by higher advection of salty waters at the mooring, in agreement with the wind. In early 2012, the anomaly is still present and associated with lower sea surface temperatures. No significant long-term trend is detected over the period 2006–2013 on CO2 and any other physical parameter. However, as atmospheric fCO2 is increasing over time, the outgassing of CO2 is reduced over the period 2006–2013 as the flux is mainly controlled by the difference of fCO2 between the ocean and the atmosphere. A longer time series is required to determine if any significant trend exists in this region.

  12. Twenty four year time trends in fats and cholesterol intake by adolescents. Warsaw Adolescents Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charzewska Jadwiga

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to determine time trends (1982–2006 in total fat intake and changes in fatty acid structure intake in adolescents from Warsaw in view of increasing prevalence of obesity. Data come from four successive surveys randomly selected samples of adolescents (aged 11–15 years old, from Warsaw region. In total 9747 pupils have been examined, with response rate varying from 55% to 87% depending on year. Surveys were done always in the spring season of the year. Food intake was assessed by using 24 hours recall method of consumption by the pupils all products, including enriched, dishes and beverages as well as diet supplements, in the last 24 hours preceding the examination. The content of energy and nutrients was calculated by means of own computer softwares (DIET 2 and 4, taking into account successive revisions of the tables of food composition and nutritional values, as well as current Polish DRI. A significant decreasing trend was found in intake of total fat, of saturated fatty acids (SFA and cholesterol. The percentage of energy from total fat, also decreased both in boys (to 35,1% and girls (to 33,7%, what failed to reach the desired level below 30% of energy from fat which is recommended. Also significant decrease of SFA consumption was not satisfactory enough to approach the values <10% of energy recommended as was from 13% to 15%. Decreasing trends in fat intake was not in accordance with the trend in obesity prevalence in the adolescents as average BMI is going up. To stabilize the health-oriented changes especially in the diets of adolescents, further activity is desired from professionals working with prevention of adolescents obesity.

  13. Determinants and Time Trends for Ischaemic and Haemorrhagic Stroke in a Large Chinese Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yutao; Wang, Hao; Tao, Tao; Tian, Yingchun; Wang, Yutang; Chen, Yundai; Lip, Gregory Y. H.

    2016-01-01

    Background The clinical epidemiology of stroke has been widely investigated in Caucasian populations, but the changes over time in the proportion of ischaemic to haemorrhagic strokes is less clear, especially in the Chinese population. Aims Our objective was to study the determinants and time trends for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke, in relation to age, in a large Chinese population cohort. Methods Using a medical insurance database in the southwest of China from 2001 to 2012, time trends in age-adjusted ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke incidence and the contributing risk factors associated with age were investigated. Results Among 425,901 individuals without prior stroke (52.4% male, median age 54), the rate of ischaemic stroke (per 1000 patient-years) decreased between 2002–2007, then remained broadly similar between 2008–2012. The rate of haemorrhagic stroke showed a similar trend, being approximately 1.3–1.9 from 2008–2012. Compared to patients ageischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke incidences (rate, 95% confidential interval, CI) were higher in the elderly population (age ischaemic: 3.64, 3.33–4.00, vs 14.33, 14.01–14.60; haemorrhagic: 1.09, 1.00–1.10 vs 2.52,2.40–2.70, respectively, both pstroke rates between the elderly and the very elderly population. Ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke shared similar risk factors (age, hypertension, coronary artery disease (CAD), vascular disease, and diabetes mellitus) (all pstroke (all pdisease (2.24, 1.49–3.37) was an additional major risk factor for haemorrhagic stroke, together with CAD and diabetes mellitus (all pischaemic stroke compared to haemorrhagic stroke with ageing. CAD, vascular disease, diabetes mellitus, and hypertension were major contributors to the development of hemorrhagic stroke in the very elderly Chinese population. PMID:27685332

  14. Trends in hydrodesulfurization catalysis based on realistic surface models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moses, P.G.; Grabow, L.C.; Fernandez Sanchez, Eva

    2014-01-01

    Trends in hydrodesulfurization (HDS) activity are investigated on the basis of surface properties calculated by density functional theory for a series of HDS catalysts. It is shown that approximately linear correlations exist between HS group binding energies and activation barriers of key elemen...

  15. Contemporary Trends in Farmer-Based Tree Management and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper examines the contemporary trends in tree growing and management in the context of changing farmer livelihood systems in southeastern Nigeria. Data were collected in 1998-99 through a field survey involving interviews with 160 households drawn from 8 rural communities across the different agroecological ...

  16. Gender-Based Violence in India: Long-Term Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simister, John; Mehta, Parnika S.

    2010-01-01

    This article examines long-term trends in Indian society regarding domestic violence between husband and wife, and attitudes to such violence. This article analyzes crime data and uses data from several Indian household surveys: "Work Attitudes and Spending" surveys (1992 to 2007); "World Values Survey" (1990, 1995, 2001, and…

  17. Resistance patterns among multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients in greater metropolitan Mumbai: trends over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalal, Alpa; Pawaskar, Akshay; Das, Mrinalini; Desai, Ranjan; Prabhudesai, Pralhad; Chhajed, Prashant; Rajan, Sujeet; Reddy, Deepesh; Babu, Sajit; Jayalakshmi, T K; Saranchuk, Peter; Rodrigues, Camilla; Isaakidis, Petros

    2015-01-01

    While the high burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) itself is a matter of great concern, the emergence and rise of advanced forms of drug-resistance such as extensively drug-resistant TB (XDR-TB) and extremely drug-resistant TB (XXDR-TB) is more troubling. The aim of this study was to investigate the trends over time of patterns of drug resistance in a sample of MDR-TB patients in greater metropolitan Mumbai, India. This was a retrospective, observational study of drug susceptibility testing (DST) results among MDR-TB patients from eight health care facilities in greater Mumbai between 2005 and 2013. We classified resistance patterns into four categories: MDR-TB, pre-XDR-TB, XDR-TB and XXDR-TB. A total of 340 MDR-TB patients were included in the study. Pre-XDR-TB was the most common form of drug-resistant TB observed overall in this Mumbai population at 56.8% compared to 29.4% for MDR-TB. The proportion of patients with MDR-TB was 39.4% in the period 2005-2007 and 27.8% in 2011-2013, while the proportion of those with XDR-TB and XXDR-TB was changed from 6.1% and 0% respectively to 10.6% and 5.6% during the same time period. During the same periods, the proportions of patients with ofloxacin, moxifloxacin and ethionamide resistance significantly increased from 57.6% to 75.3%, from 60.0% to 69.5% and from 24.2% to 52.5% respectively (pMumbai highlight the need for individualized drug regimens, designed on the basis of DST results involving first- and second-line anti-TB drugs and treatment history of the patient. A drug-resistant TB case-finding strategy based on molecular techniques that identify only rifampicin resistance will lead to initiation of suboptimal treatment regimens for a significant number of patients, which may in turn contribute to amplification of resistance and transmission of strains with increasingly advanced resistance within the community.

  18. Morbidity pattern and time trends of filaria cases at a PHC in Dakshina Kannada District.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravikiran, E; Sajjan, B S; Vijaya, K; Kumar, S; Ramkrishna, V A; Dev, A V; Jegan, D P

    2005-01-01

    A study on morbity pattern and time trends of filaria cases was carried out in a PHC of Dakshin Kannada District during November 2000 to January 2001. The age and sex distribution of all 416 filaria cases recorded revealed that 235 (56.49%) were females and maximum concentration of 263 (63.21%) was in the age group of 16-45 years. The seasonal distribution revealed that rainy season accounted the highest number of cases 197 (47.35%). The prevalence was highest, 1.96/1000 population in the year 1993 and lowest, 0.71/1000 population in the year 1995.

  19. Night-time lights: A global, long term look at links to socio-economic trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy Proville

    Full Text Available We use a parallelized spatial analytics platform to process the twenty-one year totality of the longest-running time series of night-time lights data-the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP dataset-surpassing the narrower scope of prior studies to assess changes in area lit of countries globally. Doing so allows a retrospective look at the global, long-term relationships between night-time lights and a series of socio-economic indicators. We find the strongest correlations with electricity consumption, CO2 emissions, and GDP, followed by population, CH4 emissions, N2O emissions, poverty (inverse and F-gas emissions. Relating area lit to electricity consumption shows that while a basic linear model provides a good statistical fit, regional and temporal trends are found to have a significant impact.

  20. Leveraging machine learning-based approaches to assess human papillomavirus vaccination sentiment trends with Twitter data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Jingcheng; Xu, Jun; Song, Hsing-Yi; Tao, Cui

    2017-07-05

    As one of the serious public health issues, vaccination refusal has been attracting more and more attention, especially for newly approved human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines. Understanding public opinion towards HPV vaccines, especially concerns on social media, is of significant importance for HPV vaccination promotion. In this study, we leveraged a hierarchical machine learning based sentiment analysis system to extract public opinions towards HPV vaccines from Twitter. English tweets containing HPV vaccines-related keywords were collected from November 2, 2015 to March 28, 2016. Manual annotation was done to evaluate the performance of the system on the unannotated tweets corpus. Followed time series analysis was applied to this corpus to track the trends of machine-deduced sentiments and their associations with different days of the week. The evaluation of the unannotated tweets corpus showed that the micro-averaging F scores have reached 0.786. The learning system deduced the sentiment labels for 184,214 tweets in the collected unannotated tweets corpus. Time series analysis identified a coincidence between mainstream outcome and Twitter contents. A weak trend was found for "Negative" tweets that decreased firstly and began to increase later; an opposite trend was identified for "Positive" tweets. Tweets that contain the worries on efficacy for HPV vaccines showed a relative significant decreasing trend. Strong associations were found between some sentiments ("Positive", "Negative", "Negative-Safety" and "Negative-Others") with different days of the week. Our efforts on sentiment analysis for newly approved HPV vaccines provide us an automatic and instant way to extract public opinion and understand the concerns on Twitter. Our approaches can provide a feedback to public health professionals to monitor online public response, examine the effectiveness of their HPV vaccination promotion strategies and adjust their promotion plans.

  1. Time trends and risk factors for diabetes mellitus in cats presented to veterinary teaching hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prahl, Annalisa; Guptill, Lynn; Glickman, Nita W; Tetrick, Mark; Glickman, Larry T

    2007-10-01

    Veterinary Medical Data Base records of cats with diabetes mellitus (DM) from 1970 through 1999 were reviewed to identify trends in hospital prevalence of DM and potential host risk factors. Hospital prevalence increased from eight cases per 10,000 in 1970 to 124 per 10,000 in 1999 (P risk factors included male gender, increasing age for both genders (P < 0.001), increasing weight for males (P < 0.001), and mixed vs pure breed for females (P = 0.006).

  2. Fast or slow food? Explaining trends in food-related time in the Netherlands, 1975–2005

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandemakers, Jornt; Roeters, Anne|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304837865

    2015-01-01

    The current study analysed trends in the time spent preparing and consuming food and the frequency of outsourcing (going out for dinner and take-out) in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2005. We investigated differences between trends on week and weekend days and for different socio-demographic groups.

  3. Decabromodiphenylether and hexabromocyclododecane in wild birds from the United Kingdom, Sweden and The Netherlands: Screening and time trends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leslie, H.A.; Leonards, P.E.G.; Shore, J.F.; Walker, L.A.; Bersuder, P.R.C.; Morris, S.; Allchin, C.R.; de Boer, J.

    2011-01-01

    The brominated flame retardant decabromodiphenylether (DBDE) was analysed in wild birds to identify the most suitable species for monitoring time trends in DBDE contamination. This information was later used for the design of a 10-year trend study on DBDE in the European Union. DBDE was measured in

  4. Demonstrating trend reversal of groundwater quality in relation to time of recharge determined by 3H/3He

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, A.; Broers, H.P.; Grift, B. van der; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2007-01-01

    Recent EU legislation is directed to reverse the upward trends in the concentrations of agricultural pollutants in groundwater. However, uncertainty of the groundwater travel time towards the screens of the groundwater quality monitoring networks complicates the demonstration of trend reversal. We

  5. Fast or slow food? Explaining trends in food-related time in the Netherlands, 1975-2005

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandemakers, J.J.; Roeters, A.

    2015-01-01

    The current study analysed trends in the time spent preparing and consuming food and the frequency of outsourcing (going out for dinner and take-out) in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2005. We investigated differences between trends on week and weekend days and for different socio-demographic groups.

  6. Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mudelsee

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A fundamental problem in paleoclimatology is to take fully into account the various error sources when examining proxy records with quantitative methods of statistical time series analysis. Records from dated climate archives such as speleothems add extra uncertainty from the age determination to the other sources that consist in measurement and proxy errors. This paper examines three stalagmite time series of oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O from two caves in western Germany, the series AH-1 from the Atta Cave and the series Bu1 and Bu4 from the Bunker Cave. These records carry regional information about past changes in winter precipitation and temperature. U/Th and radiocarbon dating reveals that they cover the later part of the Holocene, the past 8.6 thousand years (ka. We analyse centennial- to millennial-scale climate trends by means of nonparametric Gasser–Müller kernel regression. Error bands around fitted trend curves are determined by combining (1 block bootstrap resampling to preserve noise properties (shape, autocorrelation of the δ18O residuals and (2 timescale simulations (models StalAge and iscam. The timescale error influences on centennial- to millennial-scale trend estimation are not excessively large. We find a "mid-Holocene climate double-swing", from warm to cold to warm winter conditions (6.5 ka to 6.0 ka to 5.1 ka, with warm–cold amplitudes of around 0.5‰ δ18O; this finding is documented by all three records with high confidence. We also quantify the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, the Little Ice Age (LIA and the current warmth. Our analyses cannot unequivocally support the conclusion that current regional winter climate is warmer than that during the MWP.

  7. Time trends in leisure time physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption and body mass index in Danish adults with and without COPD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henrik; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Molsted, Stig

    2016-01-01

    Background: Promotion of a healthy lifestyle and non-pharmacological interventions in the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has received great attention in recent decades. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in leisure time physical activity (PA), smoking...... to 2010, Danish individuals aged 25 years with and without COPD, increased their leisure time PA level and reduced smoking. Lower socioeconomic status was associated with a reduced level of PA, smoking and an increased alcohol intake. Future national health campaigns and treatment strategies need......, alcohol consumption and body mass index (BMI) from 2000 to 2010 in Danish individuals with and without COPD. Methods: Analyses were based on data provided by The Danish Health and Morbidity's three cross-sectional surveys from 2000, 2005 and 2010. Data compromised level of leisure time PA, smoking...

  8. Time trends in breast cancer and menopause hormone therapy use in New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, R; Fenton, A

    2016-01-01

    The publication of preliminary findings from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) Study in 2002 suggested an increased risk of breast cancer among users of menopause hormone therapy (MHT). This resulted world-wide in a rapid and significant decline in the use of hormone therapy. It was later claimed that breast cancer incidence rates had fallen as a result of lower rates of hormone therapy use. Our aim was to investigate whether there was an association between changes in the use of hormone therapy and rates of breast cancer diagnosis in New Zealand subsequent to the publication of the WHI. Validated prescription usage data along with breast cancer screening and cancer registration data were accessed. Time trends extending for 8 years after the publication of the WHI were assessed. The use of hormone therapy for managing menopausal symptoms fell by about 70% following the controversy about its safety. Breast cancer registration rates among women aged 50-59 years had started to fall in advance of this change in prescribing. Changes in other age groups appear to coincide with changes in the screening eligibility for the national breast screening program rather than use of hormone therapy. The time trend analysis does not support an association between changes in hormone therapy use and the incidence rate of breast cancer.

  9. Time trends of chest pain symptoms and health related quality of life in coronary artery disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henriksson Peter

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is at present a lack of knowledge of time trends in health related quality of life (HRQL in common patients with coronary artery disease (CAD treated in ordinary care. The objective of this study is to assess and compare time trends of health related quality of life (HRQL and chest pain in patients with coronary artery disease. Methods 253 consecutive CAD patients in Stockholm County, Sweden – 197 males/56 females; 60 ± 8 years – were followed during two years. Perceived chest pain symptoms and three global assessments of HRQL were assessed at baseline, after one and after two years. EuroQol-5 dimension (EQ-5D with a predefined focus on function and symptoms; the broader tapping global estimates of HRQL; EuroQol VAS (EQ-VAS and Cardiac Health Profile (CHP were used. Chest pain was ranked according to Canadian Cardiovascular Society (CCS. Change in HRQL was analysed by a repeated measurements ANOVA and chest pain symptoms were analysed by Friedman non-parametric ANOVA. Results Perceived chest pain decreased during the two years (p Conclusion HRQL did not increase despite a reduction in the severity of chest pain during two years. This implies that the major part of HRQL in these consecutive ordinary patients with CAD is unresponsive to change in chest pain symptoms.

  10. Characterization and adequacy of the use of radiotherapy and its trend in time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palacios Eito, Amalia; Cabezas, Sonia García; Font Ugalde, Pilar; Rivin del Campo, Eleonor; Otero Romero, Ana; Mar Pérez Martín, María del; Roldán Arjona, Juan Manuel; Martínez Paredes, María

    2013-01-01

    Background and purpose: Characterization of radiotherapy activity and its trend over time. Gathering of parameters for future planning of our resources, applicable to similar population areas. Performing a clinical audit of appropriate use of radiotherapy. Material and methods: Analysis of 9782 patients treated between 1998 and 2008. Descriptive statistics of pathologies and social/demographic characteristics. Intention of treatment. The rate of radiotherapy utilization was estimated and compared with those considered optimal. Rate of reirradiation. Results: The average global rate of radiotherapy utilization for the period was 32.7%. It increased by 23% between 1998 and 2008, while the population of the area rose by 1.04%, equaling an average 1.13 irradiations/1000 inhabitants/year. Radiation treatment has increased by 13.6, 2.3, 1.6 and 1.06 times in patients with prostate, breast, rectal and lung cancer, respectively. Eight percent of radiotherapy treatments involve concurrent chemotherapy. The proportion of treatments with palliative intent was 18.2%. The overall underutilization of radiation therapy in our environment was an estimated 13.4%. Conclusions: The grade of adequacy of radiation rates in relation with scientific evidence was globally considered suboptimal, especially in lung cancer. There was an upward trend of irradiation in breast and prostate cancer, tending toward rates considered optimal

  11. Time Trends in Food Allergy Diagnoses, Epinephrine Orders, and Epinephrine Administrations in New York City Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feuille, Elizabeth; Lawrence, Cheryl; Volel, Caroline; Sicherer, Scott H; Wang, Julie

    2017-11-01

    To assess time trends in food allergy diagnoses, epinephrine autoinjector (EAI) prescriptions, and EAI administrations in the school setting. In this retrospective study, deidentified student data from the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, which oversees >1 million students in 1800 schools, were provided to investigators. Data from school years 2007-2008 to 2012-2013 pertaining to diagnoses of food allergy, student-specific EAI orders, and EAI administrations among students in New York City were analyzed for trends over time, via the use of ORs and χ 2 calculation. The prevalences of providing physician documentation of food allergy and EAI orders, and the incidence of EAI administrations, all increased approximately 3-fold over the years of the study. Of 337 EAI administrations, more than one-half used stock EAI, and three-quarters were for students without a student-specific order preceding the incident. The rise in food allergy diagnoses, EAI prescriptions, and EAI administrations suggest either a true increase in allergic disease, increased reporting, and/or, in the case of EAI administrations, increased appropriate use. As the majority of EAI administrations used stock supply, availability of nonstudent-specific stock EAI appears vital to management of anaphylaxis in schools. Collaboration between physicians, families, and schools is needed to identify students at risk for severe allergic reactions and to ensure preparedness and availability of EAI in the event of anaphylaxis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Time-trend of melanoma screening practice by primary care physicians: a meta-regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valachis, Antonis; Mauri, Davide; Karampoiki, Vassiliki; Polyzos, Nikolaos P; Cortinovis, Ivan; Koukourakis, Georgios; Zacharias, Georgios; Xilomenos, Apostolos; Tsappi, Maria; Casazza, Giovanni

    2009-01-01

    To assess whether the proportion of primary care physicians implementing full body skin examination (FBSE) to screen for melanoma changed over time. Meta-regression analyses of available data. MEDLINE, ISI, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Fifteen studies surveying 10,336 physicians were included in the analyses. Overall, 15%-82% of them reported to perform FBSE to screen for melanoma. The proportion of physicians using FBSE screening tended to decrease by 1.72% per year (P =0.086). Corresponding annual changes in European, North American, and Australian settings were -0.68% (P =0.494), -2.02% (P =0.044), and +2.59% (P =0.010), respectively. Changes were not influenced by national guide-lines. Considering the increasing incidence of melanoma and other skin malignancies, as well as their relative potential consequences, the FBSE implementation time-trend we retrieved should be considered a worrisome phenomenon.

  13. Time series models of decadal trends in the harmful algal species Karlodinium veneficum in Chesapeake Bay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chih-Hsien Michelle; Lyubchich, Vyacheslav; Glibert, Patricia M

    2018-03-01

    The harmful dinoflagellate, Karlodnium veneficum, has been implicated in fish-kill and other toxic, harmful algal bloom (HAB) events in waters worldwide. Blooms of K. veneficum are known to be related to coastal nutrient enrichment but the relationship is complex because this HAB taxon relies not only on dissolved nutrients but also particulate prey, both of which have also changed over time. Here, applying cross-correlations of climate-related physical factors, nutrients and prey, with abundance of K. veneficum over a 10-year (2002-2011) period, a synthesis of the interactive effects of multiple factors on this species was developed for Chesapeake Bay, where blooms of the HAB have been increasing. Significant upward trends in the time series of K. veneficum were observed in the mesohaline stations of the Bay, but not in oligohaline tributary stations. For the mesohaline regions, riverine sources of nutrients with seasonal lags, together with particulate prey with zero lag, explained 15%-46% of the variation in the K. veneficum time series. For the oligohaline regions, nutrients and particulate prey generally showed significant decreasing trends with time, likely a reflection of nutrient reduction efforts. A conceptual model of mid-Bay blooms is presented, in which K. veneficum, derived from the oceanic end member of the Bay, may experience enhanced growth if it encounters prey originating from the tributaries with different patterns of nutrient loading and which are enriched in nitrogen. For all correlation models developed herein, prey abundance was a primary factor in predicting K. veneficum abundance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Time trends in births and cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horner-Johnson, Willi; Biel, Frances M; Darney, Blair G; Caughey, Aaron B

    2017-07-01

    Although it is likely that childbearing among women with disabilities is increasing, no empirical data have been published on changes over time in the numbers of women with disabilities giving birth. Further, while it is known that women with disabilities are at increased risk of cesarean delivery, temporal trends in cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities have not been examined. To assess time trends in births by any mode and in primary cesarean deliveries among women with physical, sensory, or intellectual/developmental disabilities. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using linked vital records and hospital discharge data from all deliveries in California, 2000-2010 (n = 4,605,061). We identified women with potential disabilities using ICD-9 codes. We used descriptive statistics and visualizations to examine time patterns. Logistic regression analyses assessed the association between disability and primary cesarean delivery, stratified by year. Among all women giving birth, the proportion with a disability increased from 0.27% in 2000 to 0.80% in 2010. Women with disabilities had significantly elevated odds of primary cesarean delivery in each year, but the magnitude of the odds ratio decreased over time from 2.60 (95% CI = 2.25 = 2.99) in 2000 to 1.66 (95% CI = 1.51-1.81) in 2010. Adequate clinician training is needed to address the perinatal care needs of the increasing numbers of women with disabilities giving birth. Continued efforts to understand cesarean delivery patterns and reasons for cesarean deliveries may help guide further reductions in proportions of cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities relative to women without disabilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Employment-based retirement plan participation: geographic differences and trends, 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copeland, Craig

    2011-10-01

    LATEST DATA: This Issue Brief examines the level of participation by workers in public- and private-sector employment-based pension or retirement plans, based on the U.S. Census Bureau's March 2011 Current Population Survey (CPS), the most recent data currently available (for year-end 2010). SPONSORSHIP RATE: Among all working-age (21-64) wage and salary employees, 54.2 percent worked for an employer or union that sponsored a retirement plan in 2010. Among full-time, full-year wage and salary workers ages 21-64 (those with the strongest connection to the work force), 61.6 percent worked for an employer or union that sponsors a plan. PARTICIPATION LEVEL: Among full-time, full-year wage and salary workers ages 21-64, 54.5 percent participated in a retirement plan. TREND: This is virtually unchanged from 54.4 percent in 2009. Participation trends increased significantly in the late 1990s, and decreased in 2001 and 2002. In 2003 and 2004, the participation trend flattened out. The retirement plan participation level subsequently declined in 2005 and 2006, before a significant increase in 2007. Slight declines occurred in 2008 and 2009, followed by a flattening out of the trend in 2010. AGE: Participation increased with age (61.4 percent for wage and salary workers ages 55-64, compared with 29.2 percent for those ages 21-24). GENDER: Among wage and salary workers ages 21-64, men had a higher participation level than women, but among full-time, full-year workers, women had a higher percentage participating than men (55.5 percent for women, compared with 53.8 percent for men). Female workers' lower probability of participation among wage and salary workers results from their overall lower earnings and lower rates of full-time work in comparison with males. RACE: Hispanic wage and salary workers were significantly less likely than both white and black workers to participate in a retirement plan. The gap between the percentages of black and white plan participants that

  16. Recent trends in the timing of first sex and marriage among young women in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reda, A Alex; Lindstrom, David

    2014-07-01

    Ethiopia has been characterized by high population growth. Recent social and economic developments have the potential to alter reproductive patterns in the country. Some of these developments include sustained economic growth, urbanization, rapid growth in school enrollments, expansion of primary health care, and a rise in contraceptive access and use. In other national contexts, these developments have been associated with a gradual decoupling of the transition into sexual activity and marriage among young women. We investigate recent trends in the transition into first sex and marriage among three cohorts of Ethiopian women. Using data from the 2000, 2005, and 2011 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) we estimate survival curves and discrete-time hazards models to examine recent trends in age at first sex and first marriage among women ages 20-29. Across the three survey years the median age at first sex has remained relatively stable at 17 years, although the median age at marriage has increased from 17 to 18 years between the 2005 and 2011 surveys. Net of the effects of education and place of residence, there is evidence of a slight trend away from premarital first sex to sexual initiation in the context of marriage. However, among the most educated women and women living in urban areas (who are a small minority of women), there is a much greater tendency to initiate sexual activity outside of marriage compared to women with little schooling and women living in rural areas, and once they have begun sexual activity they tend to wait longer before they get married. We also find evidence in the most recent survey that women who have first sexual intercourse before marriage are delaying marriage more than was the case among earlier cohorts.

  17. Breast cancer screening in Italy: evaluating key performance indicators for time trends and activity volumes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giordano, Livia; Castagno, Roberta; Giorgi, Daniela; Piccinelli, Cristiano; Ventura, Leonardo; Segnan, Nereo; Zappa, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Together with the National centre for screening monitoring (ONS), GISMa supports annual collection of data on national breast screening activities. Aggregated data on implementation and performance are gathered through a standardized form to calculate process and impact indicators. Analyzed data belong to 153 local programmes in the period 2006-2011 (2006-2012 for participation rate only). During the whole period, Italian crude participation rate exceeded GISMa's acceptable standard (50%), even though a higher participation in northern and central Italy compared to southern Italy and Islands was observed. Time trend analysis of diagnostic indicators confirmed in 2011 an adequate quality of breast screening performance, especially at subsequent screening. Recall rate at initial screening did not reach the acceptable standard (performance was achieved at subsequent screening. The same trend was followed by the overall detection rate and positive predictive value. They both showed a progressive reduction (from 6.2‰ in 2006 to 4.5‰ in 2011 for DR and from 8.0% in 2006 to 5.2% in 2011 for PPV, respectively) at initial screening and a good, stable trend at subsequent screening. Activity volume analysis shows that in programmes with greater activity (test/year ≥10,000) RR at both initial and subsequent screening has a better performance. This is also true for DR and PPV where programmes with high volumes of activity do better, especially when compared with those that interpret fewer than 5,000 mammograms per year. In spite of a few limits, these results are reassuring, and they reward the efforts made by screening professionals. It is therefore important to continue to monitor screening indicators and suggest, test, and evaluate new strategies for continuous improvement.

  18. Trends in interfacial design for surface plasmon resonance based immunoassays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shankaran, Dhesingh Ravi [Art, Science and Technology Center for Cooperative Research, Kyushu University, Kasuga-shi, Fukuoka, 816-8580 (Japan); Miura, Norio [Art, Science and Technology Center for Cooperative Research, Kyushu University, Kasuga-shi, Fukuoka, 816-8580 (Japan)

    2007-12-07

    Immunosensors based on surface plasmon resonance (SPR) have become a promising tool in sensor technology for biomedical, food, environmental, industrial and homeland security applications. SPR is a surface sensitive optical technique, suitable for real-time and label-free analysis of biorecognition events at functional transducer surfaces. Fabrication of highly active and robust sensing surfaces is an important part in immunoassays because the quality, quantity, chemistry and topography of the interfacial biomembranes play a major role in immunosensor performance. Eventually, a variety of immobilization methods such as physical adsorption, covalent coupling, Langmuir-Blodgett film, polymer thin film, self-assembly, sol-gel, etc, have been introduced over the years for the immobilization of biomolecules (antibody or antigen) on the transducer surfaces. The selection of an immobilization method for an immunoassay is governed by several factors such as nature and stability of the biomolecules, target analyte, application, detection principle, mode of signal transduction, matrix complexity, etc. This paper provides an overview of the various surface modification methods for SPR based immunosensor fabrication. The preparation, structure and application of different functional interfacial surfaces have been discussed along with a brief introduction to the SPR technology, biomolecules and detection principles. (review article)

  19. Trends in interfacial design for surface plasmon resonance based immunoassays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shankaran, Dhesingh Ravi; Miura, Norio

    2007-01-01

    Immunosensors based on surface plasmon resonance (SPR) have become a promising tool in sensor technology for biomedical, food, environmental, industrial and homeland security applications. SPR is a surface sensitive optical technique, suitable for real-time and label-free analysis of biorecognition events at functional transducer surfaces. Fabrication of highly active and robust sensing surfaces is an important part in immunoassays because the quality, quantity, chemistry and topography of the interfacial biomembranes play a major role in immunosensor performance. Eventually, a variety of immobilization methods such as physical adsorption, covalent coupling, Langmuir-Blodgett film, polymer thin film, self-assembly, sol-gel, etc, have been introduced over the years for the immobilization of biomolecules (antibody or antigen) on the transducer surfaces. The selection of an immobilization method for an immunoassay is governed by several factors such as nature and stability of the biomolecules, target analyte, application, detection principle, mode of signal transduction, matrix complexity, etc. This paper provides an overview of the various surface modification methods for SPR based immunosensor fabrication. The preparation, structure and application of different functional interfacial surfaces have been discussed along with a brief introduction to the SPR technology, biomolecules and detection principles. (review article)

  20. Interfractional trend analysis of dose differences based on 2D transit portal dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Persoon, L C G G; Nijsten, S M J J G; Wilbrink, F J; Podesta, M; Snaith, J A D; Lustberg, T; Van Elmpt, W J C; Van Gils, F; Verhaegen, F

    2012-01-01

    Dose delivery of a radiotherapy treatment can be influenced by a number of factors. It has been demonstrated that the electronic portal imaging device (EPID) is valuable for transit portal dosimetry verification. Patient related dose differences can emerge at any time during treatment and can be categorized in two types: (1) systematic—appearing repeatedly, (2) random—appearing sporadically during treatment. The aim of this study is to investigate how systematic and random information appears in 2D transit dose distributions measured in the EPID plane over the entire course of a treatment and how this information can be used to examine interfractional trends, building toward a methodology to support adaptive radiotherapy. To create a trend overview of the interfractional changes in transit dose, the predicted portal dose for the different beams is compared to a measured portal dose using a γ evaluation. For each beam of the delivered fraction, information is extracted from the γ images to differentiate systematic from random dose delivery errors. From the systematic differences of a fraction for a projected anatomical structures, several metrics are extracted like percentage pixels with |γ| > 1. We demonstrate for four example cases the trends and dose difference causes which can be detected with this method. Two sample prostate cases show the occurrence of a random and systematic difference and identify the organ that causes the difference. In a lung cancer case a trend is shown of a rapidly diminishing atelectasis (lung fluid) during the course of treatment, which was detected with this trend analysis method. The final example is a breast cancer case where we show the influence of set-up differences on the 2D transit dose. A method is presented based on 2D portal transit dosimetry to record dose changes throughout the course of treatment, and to allow trend analysis of dose discrepancies. We show in example cases that this method can identify the causes of

  1. Time trend and clinical pattern of extrapulmonary tuberculosis in Serbia, 1993-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pešut Dragica P.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. Increased incidence of extrapulmonary tuberculosis (XPTB is reported worldwide. Serbia is a country in socio-economic transition period with lowmiddle HIV prevalence and intermediate-to-low tuberculosis (TB incidence rate, 100% directly observed treatment (DOT coverage, and mandatory BCG vaccination at birth. The aim of the study was to examine the incidence trend and clinical features of XPTB in Serbia during a 15-year period. Methods. This retrospective observational study included XPTB cases diagnosed in the period between 1st January 1993 and 31st Decembre 2007, according to the reports of the National Referral Institute of Lung Diseases and Tuberculosis in Belgrade and Central Tuberculosis Register. Population estimates with extrapolations were based on 1991 and 2002 census data. Results. While the overall TB incidence rate showed a slight, not significant decreasing trend (p = 0.535, a significant increase was found for XPTB (y = 1.7996 + 0.089x; R2 = 0.4141; p = 0.01. A total of 2,858 XPTB cases (newly diagnosed and 10% relapses gave an average age specific incidence rate of 2.51/100,000 population (95% confidence interval, SD = 0.6182 with 8.9% annual increase. The male-to-female ratio was 0.54. Lymph nodes were most frequently affected site (48.5% followed by genitourinary (20.5%, pleural (12%, and osseo-arthicular (10.3% TB. Treatment outcome was successful in 88.29% of patients (cured and completed, 3.64% died, 5.18% interrupted, 0.57% displaced, and 2.3% unknown. Conclusion. Increasing trend of XPTB incidence rate may be a result of increased morbidity due to still present risk factors, possible higher detection rate in Serbia and better notification. A high coverage of newborns with BCG vaccination at birth might contribute to a decreased number and rare XPTB cases in children.

  2. Ozone trends over the United States at different times of day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Yingying; Lin, Jintai; He, Cenlin

    2018-01-01

    In the United States, the decline of summertime daytime peak ozone in the last 20 years has been clearly connected to reductions in anthropogenic emissions. However, questions remain about how and through what mechanisms ozone at other times of day have changed over recent decades. Here we analyze the interannual variability and trends of ozone at different hours of day, using observations from about 1000 US sites during 1990-2014. We find a clear diurnal cycle both in the magnitude of ozone trends and in the relative importance of climate variability versus anthropogenic emissions to ozone changes. Interannual climate variability has mainly been associated with the detrended fluctuation in the US annual daytime ozone over 1990-2014, with a much smaller effect on the nighttime ozone. Reductions in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides have led to substantial growth in the US annual average nighttime ozone due to reduced ozone titration, while the summertime daytime ozone has declined. Environmental policymaking might consider further improvements to reduce ozone levels at night and other non-peak hours.

  3. Hormonal contraception and postmenopausal hormone therapy in Spain: time trends and patterns of use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costas, Laura; Sequera, Víctor-Guillermo; Quesada, Paloma; Altzibar, Jone M; Lope, Virginia; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz; Benavente, Yolanda; Martín, Vicente; Casabonne, Delphine; Robles, Claudia; Llorca, Javier; Moreno-Iribas, Conchi; Fernandez-Tardón, Guillermo; Moreno, Victor; Caballero-Granado, Francisco Javier; Salas, Dolores; Jiménez-Moleón, José Juan; Marcos-Gragera, Rafael; Chirlaque, María-Dolores; Amiano, Pilar; Molina, Antonio Jose; Castaño-Vinyals, Gemma; Aragonés, Nuria; Kogevinas, Manolis; Pollán, Marina; de Sanjosé, Silvia

    2015-10-01

    This study aims to describe time trends in and patterns of use of hormonal contraception and postmenopausal hormone therapy and to identify factors associated with their use among Spanish women. We performed a cross-sectional analysis using data from 1,954 population controls (aged 24-85 y) in 12 provinces of Spain who were enrolled in the Multi Case-Control Spain study (2007-2013). Data were collected from a questionnaire conducted face-to-face by trained personnel. We collected information on sociodemographic factors, lifestyle, sleep patterns, reproductive history, and occupational history. Overall, 48.5% of Spanish women reported ever use of hormonal contraception, and 9.8% of women in the postmenopausal group reported use of postmenopausal hormone therapy. Younger cohorts used hormonal contraception for a longer period, whereas postmenopausal hormone therapy use dramatically dropped in the 2000s. Women with higher education levels (including education of partners) and smoking history were the most probable users of hormonal contraception, whereas inverse associations were observed among housewives, obese women, and nulliparous women. Postmenopausal hormone therapy use was associated with a surgical or therapeutic cause of menopause and with occupational history of rotating shifts. In this Spanish population, several demographic, lifestyle, occupational, and reproductive factors are associated with use of hormonal compounds. Characterizing hormonal users and monitoring trends in the use of these hormonal compounds are essential from a public health perspective.

  4. Time trend of lack of access to health services in Brazil, 1998-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, Bruno Pereira; Flores, Thaynã Ramos; Garcia, Leila Posenato; Chiavegatto, Alexandre Dias Porto; Thumé, Elaine; Facchini, Luiz Augusto

    2016-01-01

    to analyze the time trend on the demand and lack of access to public health services in Brazil. this is a panel of cross-sectional studies with data of the National Household Sample Survey (1998, 2003, 2008) and the National Health Survey (2013); the prevalence of demand and lack of access within the fifteen days prior to the survey was estimated; Poisson regression was used for trend analysis. the demand for health services increased from 13.0% (95%CI 12.3;13.7), in 1998, to 15.0% (95%CI 14.5;15.4), in 2013; the lack of access remained stable, being of 3.7% (95%CI 3.2;4.2) in 1998 and 4.5% (95%CI 4.0;5.0) in 2013. the increase in demand for health services and the stability in the lack of access indicate improvements in the Brazilian public health system performance; additional efforts are required to ensure universal access to public health services in Brazil.

  5. Time trend in hospitalised chronic lower respiratory diseases among Danish building and construction workers, 1981-2009

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tüchsen, Finn; Hannerz, Harald; Mølgaard, Ellen Fisher

    2012-01-01

    To show trends in age-standardised hospital admission ratios (SHR) for chronic lower respiratory diseases, estimated for Danish construction workers over three time periods (1981-1990, 1991-2000, 2001-2009).......To show trends in age-standardised hospital admission ratios (SHR) for chronic lower respiratory diseases, estimated for Danish construction workers over three time periods (1981-1990, 1991-2000, 2001-2009)....

  6. Investigating the impact of the English health inequalities strategy: time trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barr, Ben; Higgerson, James; Whitehead, Margaret

    2017-07-26

    Objective  To investigate whether the English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical health inequalities, compared with trends before and after the strategy. Design  Time trend analysis. Setting  Two groups of lower tier local authorities in England. The most deprived, bottom fifth and the rest of England. Intervention  The English health inequalities strategy-a cross government strategy implemented between 1997 and 2010 to reduce health inequalities in England. Trends in geographical health inequalities were assessed before (1983-2003), during (2004-12), and after (2013-15) the strategy using segmented linear regression. Main outcome measure  Geographical health inequalities measured as the relative and absolute differences in male and female life expectancy at birth between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country. Results  Before the strategy the gap in male and female life expectancy between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country increased at a rate of 0.57 months each year (95% confidence interval 0.40 to 0.74 months) and 0.30 months each year (0.12 to 0.48 months). During the strategy period this trend reversed and the gap in life expectancy for men reduced by 0.91 months each year (0.54 to 1.27 months) and for women by 0.50 months each year (0.15 to 0.86 months). Since the end of the strategy period the inequality gap has increased again at a rate of 0.68 months each year (-0.20 to 1.56 months) for men and 0.31 months each year (-0.26 to 0.88) for women. By 2012 the gap in male life expectancy was 1.2 years smaller (95% confidence interval 0.8 to 1.5 years smaller) and the gap in female life expectancy was 0.6 years smaller (0.3 to 1.0 years smaller) than it would have been if the trends in inequalities before the strategy had continued. Conclusion  The English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical inequalities

  7. Time trends and determinants of acute odontogenic maxillofacial infections in Lithuania: a retrospective national 2009-2013 treatment data audit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasteniene, R; Aleksejūniene, J; Pūriene, A

    2015-12-01

    To examine the distribution of treatment facilities accepting patients with acute odontogenic maxillofacial infections (AOMIs), time trends in incidence and relate these infections with a number of determinants. A national Lithuanian retrospective study gathered data on all patients treated in outpatient/inpatient treatment facilities. Adjusted Incidence Ratios (AIRs) of AOMIs were calculated separately for each type of infection and for each year. Administrative districts (ADs) were grouped into low, medium, and high thirds based on the regional determinants: socio-economic index (R-SEI), access to basic (R-BDCI) or specialized dental care (R-SDCI) and index of systemic diseases (R-ISD). There were no statistically significant geographical differences in the distribution of TFs providing care for patients with AOMIs. Numbers of treatment facilities consistently increased from 2009 to 2013, but there was no consistent increase/decrease in the incidence of AOMIs (-1%). Regions with the highest R-SEI tended to have a higher incidence of AOMIs as compared to regions with medium or low R-SEI. When controlled for other determinants, lower R-BDCI/R-SDCI scores were associated with a higher incidence of AOMIs. High annual incidences (-1% of a total population) were diagnosed and treated for AOMIs, but there was no consistent time trend for these infections.

  8. Was everything bigger in Texas? Characterization and trends of a land-based recreational shark fishery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajemian, Matthew J.; Jose, Philip D.; Froeschke, John T.; Wildhaber, Mark L.; Stunz, Gregory W.

    2016-01-01

    Although current assessments of shark population trends involve both fishery-independent and fishery-dependent data, the latter are generally limited to commercial landings that may neglect nearshore coastal habitats. Texas has supported the longest organized land-based recreational shark fishery in the United States, yet no studies have used this “non-traditional” data source to characterize the catch composition or trends in this multidecadal fishery. We analyzed catch records from two distinct periods straddling heavy commercial exploitation of sharks in the Gulf of Mexico (historical period = 1973–1986; modern period = 2008–2015) to highlight and make available the current status and historical trends in Texas’ land-based shark fishery. Catch records describing large coastal species (>1,800 mm stretched total length [STL]) were examined using multivariate techniques to assess catch seasonality and potential temporal shifts in species composition. These fishery-dependent data revealed consistent seasonality that was independent of the data set examined, although distinct shark assemblages were evident between the two periods. Similarity percentage analysis suggested decreased contributions of Lemon Shark Negaprion brevirostris over time and a general shift toward the dominance of Bull Shark Carcharhinus leucas and Blacktip Shark C. limbatus. Comparisons of mean STL for species captured in historical and modern periods further identified significant decreases for both Bull Sharks and Lemon Sharks. Size structure analysis showed a distinct paucity of landed individuals over 2,000 mm STL in recent years. Although inherent biases in reporting and potential gear-related inconsistencies undoubtedly influenced this fishery-dependent data set, the patterns in our findings documented potential declines in the size and occurrence of select large coastal shark species off Texas, consistent with declines reported in the Gulf of Mexico. Future management efforts

  9. Assessing satellite-based start-of-season trends in the US High Plains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, X; Sassenrath, G F; Hubbard, K G; Mahmood, R

    2014-01-01

    To adequately assess the effects of global warming it is necessary to address trends and impacts at the local level. This study examines phenological changes in the start-of-season (SOS) derived from satellite observations from 1982–2008 in the US High Plains region. The surface climate-based SOS was also evaluated. The averaged profiles of SOS from 37° to 49°N latitude by satellite- and climate-based methods were in reasonable agreement, especially for areas where croplands were masked out and an additional frost date threshold was adopted. The statistically significant trends of satellite-based SOS show a later spring arrival ranging from 0.1 to 4.9 days decade −1 over nine Level III ecoregions. We found the croplands generally exhibited larger trends (later arrival) than the non-croplands. The area-averaged satellite-based SOS for non-croplands (i.e. mostly grasslands) showed no significant trends. We examined the trends of temperatures, precipitation, and standardized precipitation index (SPI), as well as the strength of correlation between the satellite-based SOS and these climatic drivers. Our results indicate that satellite-based SOS trends are spatially and primarily related to annual maximum normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, mostly in summertime) and/or annual minimum NDVI (mostly in wintertime) and these trends showed the best correlation with six-month SPI over the period 1982–2008 in the US High Plains region. (letter)

  10. Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Strode

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We find that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI, reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias in CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. These results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.

  11. Time-frequency representation based on time-varying ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A parametric time-frequency representation is presented based on timevarying autoregressive model (TVAR), followed by applications to non-stationary vibration signal processing. The identification of time-varying model coefficients and the determination of model order, are addressed by means of neural networks and ...

  12. How abnormal is binge eating? 18-Year time trends in population prevalence and burden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchison, D; Touyz, S; González-Chica, D A; Stocks, N; Hay, P

    2017-08-01

    Although findings suggest that binge eating is becoming increasingly normative, the 'clinical significance' of this behaviour at a population level remains uncertain. We aimed to assess the time trends in binge-eating prevalence and burden over 18 years. Six cross-sectional face-to-face surveys of the Australian adult population were conducted in 1998, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2014, and 2015 (N total = 15 126). Data were collected on demographics, 3-month prevalence of objective binge eating (OBE), health-related quality of life, days out of role, and distress related to OBE. The prevalence of OBE increased six-fold from 1998 (2.7%) to 2015 (13.0%). Health-related quality of life associated with OBE improved from 1998 to 2015, where it more closely approximated population norms. Days out of role remained higher among participants who reported OBE, although decreased over time. Half of participants who reported weekly (56.6%) and twice-weekly (47.1%) OBE reported that they were not distressed by this behaviour. However, the presence of distress related to OBE in 2015 was associated with greater health-related quality-of-life impairment. As the prevalence of binge eating increases over time, associated disability has been decreasing. Implications for the diagnosis of disorders associated with binge eating are discussed. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Time-Series Trends of Trace Elements in AN Ice Core from Antarctica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keskin, Siddik Sinan

    Trace element measurements were made by instrumental neutron activation analysis on stratigraphically dated ice core samples from Byrd Station, Antarctica, to determine the concentration levels of natural and anthropogenic substances. Sampling was continuous between 1926 A.D. and 1989 A.D. and selective between 1711 A.D. and 1926 A.D. Twenty-one elements with concentrations above the detection limits were determined. The time period between 1969 A.D. and 1989 A.D. showed an enhanced impact on the Antarctic ice sheets from natural sources in the form of marine and crustal aerosols. A disturbed ocean-atmosphere interface due to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events seems to be a candidate especially for the enhanced marine aerosol deposition in Antarctica. Time-series trend of the concentration of deposited aluminum, which is mainly a crustal aerosol related element, shows a strong negative correlation with the time-series trend of annual average total column ozone concentrations homogenized between the 60^circS and 90^circS latitudes from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) ozone data set. Although the time period is not long enough to draw a strong conclusion (1979-1989), tbe special role of crustal origin clay minerals on cloud nucleation dynamics might be a factor in the heterogeneous stratospheric ozone depletion chemistry through polar stratospheric cloud dynamics, assuming some troposphere-stratosphere mixing of these aerosols. The correlation of antimony and arsenic enrichments with known or suspected volcanic events was established. These marker elements was shown to be useful especially for the identification of specific historical volcanic events with low sulfur emissions. Although a cleat anthropogenic impact was not observed, concentrations of arsenic, chromium. and zinc, which might come from both natural and anthropogenic sources, indicated an increase after 1960's. Principal component factor analysis indicated a possible transition

  14. Observation-based trends in ambient ozone in the Czech Republic over the past two decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hůnová, Iva; Bäumelt, Vít

    2018-01-01

    We present the trends in ambient ozone concentrations based on high quality data measured continuously at 26 long-term monitoring sites (9 urban, 17 rural including 10 mountain stations) in the Czech Republic in 1994-2015. We considered annual and summer medians, the 10th and 98th percentiles, maximum daily 8-h running mean concentrations and exposure index AOT40F. For all indicators taken into account except for the 10th percentile, our results showed a similar pattern with significant decreasing trends for about one half of the examined sites. We obtained similar results for all types of sites. The most pronounced decrease in O3 concentrations was recorded at mountain sites. Namely, at the Šerlich mountain site, with an overall decrease per year in annual median by 0.43 ppb, summer median by 1.17 ppb, maximal daily 8-h average by 0.45 ppb, the 10th percentile by 0.62 ppb. The peak concentrations indicated by the 98th percentile and AOT40F decreased most at urban site České Budějovice by 0.75 ppb and 0.84 ppb h per year, respectively. For sites exhibiting significant decreasing trends, an overall decrease per year in annual median was 0.22 ppb, in summer median 0.41 ppb, in the 10th percentile 0.23 ppb, in the 98th percentile 0.53 ppb, and in AOT40F 0.51 ppb h. A significant increasing trend was detected only in the 10th percentile at just three sites, with the highest increase of 0.19 ppb per year recorded at the rural site Sněžník. Moreover, a consistent decrease in limit value exceedances was detected, with by far the highest violation recorded in the meteorologically exceptional year of 2003. Out of the 26 sites under review, seven have not recorded a significant decreasing trend in O3 in any of the considered statistics. The lack of trends in O3 at these seven sites is likely associated with changing time patterns in local NO and NO2 emissions: in particular, with the increasing ratio in NO2/NOx. There is an obvious geographical pattern in recorded O3

  15. Identifying asset-based trends in sustainable programmes which ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We indicate the similarities between the asset-based approach and current discourses focusing on the notion of schools as nodes of support and care.1 We conclude by suggesting that knowledge of asset-based good practices could be shared with families in school-based sessions, thereby developing schools', families' ...

  16. Historical time trends in red blood cell usage in the Netherlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Hoeven LR

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Loan R van Hoeven,1,2 Maria MW Koopman,3 Hendrik Koffijberg,4 Kit CB Roes,1 Mart P Janssen1,2 1Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, 2Transfusion Technology Assessment Department, Sanquin Research, 3Department of Transfusion Medicine, Sanquin Blood Bank, Amsterdam, 4Department of Health Technology and Services Research, MIRA Institute for Biomedical Technology and Technical Medicine, University of Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands Background: While the number of hospitalized patients in Dutch hospitals has increased since 1997, the demand for red blood cell units (RBCs has simultaneously decreased. This implies a dramatic change in transfusion practice toward fewer blood transfusions on average per patient.Objectives: In order to explain the RBC reduction, different patient groups (surgical, medical, obstetrical, and specific age groups were studied retrospectively in relation to RBC use. In addition, the use of combinations of RBCs, fresh frozen plasma, and platelets during a transfusion episode was examined for trends over time.Materials and methods: Data from the PROTON database, containing information on all transfusions in twelve Dutch hospitals in the period 1996–2005, including corresponding patient data (age, diagnosis, treatment, and hospitalizations and blood unit data (type, amount, and date were analyzed.Results: The proportion of RBCs used for surgical patients declined from 50% in 1996 to 40% in 2005, whereas medical use increased from 47% to 58% (the remaining 2%–3% went to obstetrical patients. Changes were more marked in the higher age groups. Also, a trend was observed toward the use of only one or two RBCs during a transfusion episode rather than three or more. Among surgical patients who received blood, the use of combinations of blood units, as compared to RBCs only, increased from 32% to 39%.Conclusion: The results suggest a more restrictive transfusion policy

  17. Railway suicide in England and Wales 2000-2013: a time-trends analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Anna K; Knipe, Duleeka W; Thomas, Kyla H

    2016-03-15

    In 2010, the "Tackling Suicide on the Railways" programme was launched as a joint initiative among Network Rail, the Samaritans and other key organisations such as the British Transport Police and train operators to achieve a 20% reduction in railway suicides from 2010 to 2015 in Great Britain. We report the most recent age and sex specific trends in railway suicide in England and Wales from 2000 to 2013 and examine whether the initiative's target reduction in railway suicides is likely to be achieved. Population data and suicide mortality data (all methods combined and railway) for England and Wales were obtained from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and used to calculate age and gender specific rates for deaths registered from 2000 to 2013. Data on railway suicides were also obtained from the Rail Safety and Standards Board (RSSB) and compared with ONS data. We used joinpoint regression to identify changes in suicide trends across the study period. The railway was used in 4.1% of all suicides in England and Wales (RSSB data were similar to ONS data for most years). Suicides in all persons from all causes decreased from 2000 to 2007, with small increases from 2008 until 2013; this rise was entirely due to an increase in male suicides. Railway suicide rates increased over the entire study period; the proportion of railway suicides in all persons increased from 3.5 to 4.9% during the study period. This trend was also mainly driven by increases in male suicides as female railway suicide rates remained steady over time. The highest age specific railway suicide rates were observed in middle aged men and women. Although there was no conclusive evidence of an increase in ONS railway suicides, RSSB data showed a statistically significant increase in railway suicides in males from 2009 onwards. The continued rise in male railway suicide in England and Wales is concerning, particularly due to the high economic costs and psychological trauma associated with these

  18. Time-trends and causes of infant, neonatal and postneonatal mortality in Mexico, 1980-1990

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUSAN VANDALE

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. This article analyzes the time-trends and causes of infant, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality in Mexico during the 1980’s. Material and methods. Data on infant deaths came from yearly tabulations (1980 to 1990 published by the Mexican government. Time-trends of mortality rates were determined by simple linear regression models. The parallelism test was performed for evaluating similarities in trends in neonatal and postneonatal mortality rates by causes. Results. During the 1980’s, infant mortality rates in Mexico declined from 40.4 to 31.1/1 000 (ß= -0.791. Postneonatal mortality rates showed a strong decrease (ß= -0.892, while neonatal mortality rates were almost stationary (ß= 0.089. Significant rate decreases were observed for Intestinal infections, Pneumonia and influenza and all other causes while Certain perinatal problems, Congenital defects and Nutritional deficiencies increased. No changes were observed in Acute respiratory infections. The neonatal proportional mortality showed an incremental trend accounting for 37.6% in 1980 and ascending to 48.8% in 1990 of the mortality in the first year of life. Conclusions.This analysis indicates that the reduction in infant mortality in Mexico during the 1980’s was due to declining postneonatal mortality while neonatal mortality rates remain almost unchanged.Objetivo. Analizar las tendencias seculares de las tasas de mortalidad infantil (TMI neonatal (TMN y posneonatal (TMP en México de 1980-1990. Material y métodos. La información estudiada fue proporcionada por el Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática. Las tendencias de los indicadores fueron determinadas mediante modelos de regresión lineal y se efectuaron pruebas de paralelismo para evaluar la semejanza en pendientes de TMN y TMP por causas. Resultados. Las TMI se redujeron de 40.4 a 31.1/1 000, (ß= -0.791. Las TMP mostraron un decremento significativo (ß= -0.892, mientras que las TMN

  19. Underwater Time Service and Synchronization Based on Time Reversal Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Hao; Wang, Hai-bin; Aissa-El-Bey, Abdeldjalil; Pyndiah, Ramesh

    2010-09-01

    Real time service and synchronization are very important to many underwater systems. But the time service and synchronization in existence cannot work well due to the multi-path propagation and random phase fluctuation of signals in the ocean channel. The time reversal mirror technique can realize energy concentration through self-matching of the ocean channel and has very good spatial and temporal focusing properties. Based on the TRM technique, we present the Time Reversal Mirror Real Time service and synchronization (TRMRT) method which can bypass the processing of multi-path on the server side and reduce multi-path contamination on the client side. So TRMRT can improve the accuracy of time service. Furthermore, as an efficient and precise method of time service, TRMRT could be widely used in underwater exploration activities and underwater navigation and positioning systems.

  20. Temporal trends in non-occupational sedentary behaviours from Australian Time Use Surveys 1992, 1997 and 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chau Josephine Y

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Current epidemiological data highlight the potential detrimental associations between sedentary behaviours and health outcomes, yet little is known about temporal trends in adult sedentary time. This study used time use data to examine population trends in sedentary behaviours in non-occupational domains and more specifically during leisure time. Methods We conducted secondary analysis of population representative data from the Australian Time Use Surveys 1992, 1997 and 2006 involving respondents aged 20 years and over with completed time use diaries for two days. Weighted samples for each survey year were: n = 5851 (1992, n = 6419 (1997 and n = 5505 (2006. We recoded all primary activities by domain (sleep, occupational, transport, leisure, household, education and intensity (sedentary, light, moderate. Adjusted multiple linear regressions tested for differences in time spent in non-occupational sedentary behaviours in 1992 and 1997 with 2006 as the reference year. Results Total non-occupational sedentary time was slightly lower in 1997 than in 2006 (mean = 894 min/2d and 906 min/2d, respectively; B = −11.2; 95%CI: -21.5, -0.9. Compared with 2006, less time was spent in 1997 in sedentary transport (B-6.7; 95%CI: -10.4, -3.0 and sedentary education (B = −6.3; 95%CI: -10.5, -2.2 while household and leisure sedentary time remained stable. Time engaged in different types of leisure-time sedentary activities changed between 1997 and 2006: leisure-time computer use increased (B = −26.7; 95%CI: -29.5, -23.8, while other leisure-time sedentary behaviours (e.g., reading, listening to music, hobbies and crafts showed small concurrent reductions. In 1992, leisure screen time was lower than in 2006: TV-viewing (B = −24.2; 95%CI: -31.2, -17.2, computer use (B = −35.3; 95%CI: -37.7, -32.8. In 2006, 90 % of leisure time was spent sedentary, of which 53 % was screen time. Conclusions Non

  1. Examining time trends in the Oldowan technology at Beds I and II, Olduvai Gorge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimura, Yuki

    2002-09-01

    The lithic analysis of the Bed I and II assemblages from Olduvai Gorge reveals both static and dynamic time trends in early hominids' technology from 1.8 to 1.2 m.y.a. The Bed I Oldowan (1.87-1.75 m.y.a.) is characterized by the least effort strategy in terms of raw material exploitation and tool production. The inclusion of new raw material, chert, for toolmaking in the following Developed Oldowan A (DOA, 1.65-1.53 m.y.a.) facilitated more distinctive and variable flaking strategies depending on the kind of raw materials. The unique characters of DOA are explainable by this raw material factor, rather than technological development of hominids. The disappearance of chert in the subsequent Developed Oldowan B and Acheulian (1.53-1.2 m.y.a.) necessitated a shift in tool production strategy more similar to that of Bed I Oldowan than DOA. However, the evidence suggests that Bed II hominids might have been more skillful toolmakers, intensive tool-users, and engaged in more active transport of stone tools than the Bed I predecessors. Koobi Fora hominids maintained a more static tool-using behavior than their Olduvai counterparts due mainly to a stable supply of raw materials. They differed from Olduvai hominids in terms of less battering of cores, consistent transport behavior, and few productions of side-struck flakes, indicating a regional variation of toolmaking and using practice. However, they shared with Olduvai hominids a temporal trend toward the production of larger flakes from larger cores after 1.6 m.y.a. Increased intake of animal resources and the expansion of ranging area of Homo ergaster would have led to the development of technological organization. Technological changes in the Oldowan industry are attested at Olduvai Gorge, Koobi Fora, and Sterkfontein, suggesting that it was a pan-African synchronous phenomenon, beginning at 1.5 m.y.a.

  2. Global cardiovascular research output, citations, and collaborations: a time-trend, bibliometric analysis (1999-2008).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huffman, Mark D; Baldridge, Abigail; Bloomfield, Gerald S; Colantonio, Lisandro D; Prabhakaran, Poornima; Ajay, Vamadevan S; Suh, Sarah; Lewison, Grant; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj

    2013-01-01

    Health research is one mechanism to improve population-level health and should generally match the health needs of populations. However, there have been limited data to assess the trends in national-level cardiovascular research output, even as cardiovascular disease [CVD] has become the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. We performed a time trends analysis of cardiovascular research publications (1999-2008) downloaded from Web of Knowledge using a iteratively-tested cardiovascular bibliometric filter with >90% precision and recall. We evaluated cardiovascular research publications, five-year running actual citation indices [ACIs], and degree of international collaboration measured through the ratio of the fractional count of addresses from one country against all addresses for each publication. Global cardiovascular publication volume increased from 40 661 publications in 1999 to 55 284 publications in 2008, which represents a 36% increase. The proportion of cardiovascular publications from high-income, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [OECD] countries declined from 93% to 84% of the total share over the study period. High-income, OECD countries generally had higher fractional counts, which suggest less international collaboration, than lower income countries from 1999-2008. There was an inverse relationship between cardiovascular publications and age-standardized CVD morbidity and mortality rates, but a direct, curvilinear relationship between cardiovascular publications and Human Development Index from 1999-2008. Cardiovascular health research output has increased substantially in the past decade, with a greater share of citations being published from low- and middle-income countries. However, low- and middle-income countries with the higher burdens of cardiovascular disease continue to have lower research output than high-income countries, and thus require targeted research investments to improve cardiovascular health.

  3. Through the sands of time: Beach litter trends from nine cleaned north cornish beaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, Andrew J R; Porter, Adam; Hembrow, Neil; Sharpe, Jolyon; Galloway, Tamara S; Lewis, Ceri

    2017-09-01

    Marine litter and its accumulation on beaches is an issue of major current concern due to its significant environmental and economic impacts. Yet our understanding of spatio-temporal trends in beach litter and the drivers of these trends are currently limited by the availability of robust long term data sets. Here we present a unique data set collected systematically once a month, every month over a six year period for nine beaches along the North Coast of Cornwall, U.K. to investigate the key drivers of beach litter in the Bude, Padstow and Porthcothan areas. Overall, an average of 0.02 litter items m -2 per month were collected during the six year study, with Bude beaches (Summerleaze, Crooklets and Widemouth) the most impacted (0.03 ± 0.004 litter items m -2 per month). The amount of litter collected each month decreased by 18% and 71% respectively for Padstow (Polzeath, Trevone and Harlyn) and Bude areas over the 6 years, possibly related to the regular cleaning, however litter increased by 120% despite this monthly cleaning effort on the Padstow area beaches. Importantly, at all nine beaches the litter was dominated by small, fragmented plastic pieces and rope fibres, which account for 32% and 17% of all litter items collected, respectively. The weathered nature of these plastics indicates they have been in the marine environment for an extended period of time. So, whilst classifying the original source of these plastics is not possible, it can be concluded they are not the result of recent public littering. This data highlights both the extent of the marine litter problem and that current efforts to reduce littering by beach users will only tackle a fraction of this litter. Such information is vital for developing effective management strategies for beach and marine litter at both regional and global levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Global cardiovascular research output, citations, and collaborations: a time-trend, bibliometric analysis (1999-2008.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark D Huffman

    Full Text Available Health research is one mechanism to improve population-level health and should generally match the health needs of populations. However, there have been limited data to assess the trends in national-level cardiovascular research output, even as cardiovascular disease [CVD] has become the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide.We performed a time trends analysis of cardiovascular research publications (1999-2008 downloaded from Web of Knowledge using a iteratively-tested cardiovascular bibliometric filter with >90% precision and recall. We evaluated cardiovascular research publications, five-year running actual citation indices [ACIs], and degree of international collaboration measured through the ratio of the fractional count of addresses from one country against all addresses for each publication.Global cardiovascular publication volume increased from 40 661 publications in 1999 to 55 284 publications in 2008, which represents a 36% increase. The proportion of cardiovascular publications from high-income, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [OECD] countries declined from 93% to 84% of the total share over the study period. High-income, OECD countries generally had higher fractional counts, which suggest less international collaboration, than lower income countries from 1999-2008. There was an inverse relationship between cardiovascular publications and age-standardized CVD morbidity and mortality rates, but a direct, curvilinear relationship between cardiovascular publications and Human Development Index from 1999-2008.Cardiovascular health research output has increased substantially in the past decade, with a greater share of citations being published from low- and middle-income countries. However, low- and middle-income countries with the higher burdens of cardiovascular disease continue to have lower research output than high-income countries, and thus require targeted research investments to improve

  5. Quaternary disappearance of tree taxa from Southern Europe: Timing and trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magri, Donatella; Di Rita, Federico; Aranbarri, Josu; Fletcher, William; González-Sampériz, Penélope

    2017-05-01

    A hundred pollen and plant macrofossil records from the Iberian Peninsula, Southern France, the Italian Peninsula, Greece and the Aegean, and the southwestern Black Sea area formed the basis for a review of the Quaternary distribution and extirpation of tree populations from Southern Europe. Following a discussion of the caveats/challenges about using pollen data, the Quaternary history of tree taxa has been reconstructed with attention to Taxodium/Glyptostrobus, Sciadopitys, Cathaya, Cedrus, Tsuga, Eucommia, Engelhardia, Carya, Pterocarya, Parrotia, Liquidambar, and Zelkova. The timing of extinction, distributed over the whole Quaternary, appears very diverse from one region to the other, in agreement with current biodiversity in Southern Europe. The geographical patterns of persistence/disappearance of taxa show unexpected trends and rule out a simple North to South and/or West to East trend in extirpations. In particular, it is possible to detect disjunct populations (Engelhardia), long-term persistence of taxa in restricted regions (Sciadopitys), distinct populations/species/genera in different geographical areas (Taxodium type). Some taxa that are still widespread in Europe have undergone extirpation in Mediterranean areas in the lateglacial period and Holocene (Buxus, Carpinus betulus, Picea); they provide an indication of the modes of disappearance of tree populations that may be useful to evaluate correctly the vulnerability of modern fragmented plant populations. The demographic histories of tree taxa obtained by combined palaeobotanical and genetic studies is a most challenging field of research needed not only to assess species/population differentiation, but also to reach a better understanding of extinction processes, an essential task in the current global change scenario.

  6. Google Trends: Ready for real-time suicide prevention or just a Zeta-Jones effect? An exploratory study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fond, Guillaume; Gaman, Alexandru; Brunel, Lore; Haffen, Emmanuel; Llorca, Pierre-Michel

    2015-08-30

    Two studies have shown that increasing the consultation of the word "suicide" in the Google search engine was associated with a subsequent increase in the prevalence of suicide attempts. The main goal of this article was to explore the trends generated by a key-word search associated with suicide, depression and bipolarity in an attempt to identify general trends (disorders epidemics in the population/"real events" vs newsworthy advertisement/"media event"). Based on previous studies, the frequency of the search words "how to suicide" and "commit suicide" were analyzed for suicide, as well as "depression" (for depressive disorders) and "bipolar disorder". Together, these analyses suggest that the search for the words "how to suicide" or "commit suicide" on the Google search engine may be a good indicator for suicide prevention policies. However, the tool is not developed enough to date to be used as a real time dynamic indicator of suicide epidemics. The frequency of the search for the word "suicide" was associated with those for "depression" but not for "bipolar disorder", but searches for psychiatric conditions seem to be influenced by media events more than by real events in the general population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Time trends and changes in the distribution of malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon Region, 2004-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isac da SF Lima

    Full Text Available Recent efforts to reduce malaria incidence have had some successes. Nevertheless, malaria persists as a significant public health problem in the Brazilian Amazon. The objective of this study was to describe changes in malaria case characteristics and to identify trends in malaria incidence in the Brazilian Amazon. This study used data from the Malaria Epidemiological Surveillance and Case Notification Information System from 2004 to 2013. The annual parasite incidence (API was calculated and joinpoint regression was used to assess the trends in API over time. There was a sharp increase in API in the state of Acre, followed by two periods of decrease. Pará also presented inconsistent decreases over the study period. Amapá, Amazonas, Rondônia, and Roraima showed statistically significant decreases over the period. The sharpest decrease occurred in Rondônia, with a reduction of 21.7% in the average annual percent change (AAPC (AAPC: -21.7%; 95% confidence interval: -25.4%, -17.8%; p < 0.05. This panorama of malaria incidence highlights the importance of integrating evidence-based malaria surveillance and control. Malaria is highly preventable, and eliminating its transmission should be a goal in coming decades.

  8. Coronary heart disease mortality among young adults in Scotland in relation to social inequalities:time trend study

    OpenAIRE

    O'Flaherty, Martin; Bishop, Jennifer; Redpath, Adam; McLaughlin, Terry; Murphy, David; Chalmers, James; Capewell, Simon

    2009-01-01

    Objective To examine recent trends and social inequalities in age specific coronary heart disease mortality.Design Time trend analysis using joinpoint regression.Setting Scotland, 1986-2006.Participants Men and women aged 35 years and over.Main outcome measures Age adjusted and age, sex, and deprivation specific coronary heart disease mortality.Results Persistent sixfold social differentials in coronary heart disease mortality were seen between the most deprived and the most affluent groups a...

  9. Stochastic and deterministic trend models

    OpenAIRE

    Estela Bee Dagum; Camilo Dagum

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we provide an overview of some trend models formulated for global and local estimation. Global trend models are based on the assumption that the trend or nonstationary mean of a time series can be approximated closely by simple functions of time over the entire span of the series. The most common representation of deterministic and stochastic trend are introduced. In particular, for the former we analyze polynomial and transcendental functions, whereas for the latter we assume t...

  10. Blinded sample size re-estimation for recurrent event data with time trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, S; Schmidli, H; Friede, T

    2013-12-30

    The use of an internal pilot study for blinded sample size re-estimation (BSSR) allows to reduce uncertainty on the appropriate sample size compared with conventional fixed sample size designs. Recently BSSR procedures for recurrent event data were proposed and investigated. These approaches assume treatment-specific constant event rates that might not always be appropriate as found in relapsing multiple sclerosis. On the basis of a proportional intensity frailty model, we propose methods for BSSR in situations where a time trend of the event rates is present. For the sample size planning and the final analysis standard negative binomial methods can be used, as long as the patient follow-up time is approximately equal in the treatment groups. To re-estimate the sample size at interim, however, a full likelihood analysis is necessary. Operating characteristics such as rejection probabilities and sample size distribution are evaluated in a simulation study motivated by a systematic review in relapsing multiple sclerosis. The key factors affecting the operating characteristics are the study duration and the length of the recruitment period. The proposed procedure for BSSR controls the type I error rate and maintains the desired power against misspecifications of the nuisance parameters. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Time Trends in the Incidence and Mortality of Ovarian Cancer in Ireland, Northern Ireland, and Israel, 1994-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keinan-Boker, Lital; Silverman, Barbara G; Walsh, Paul M; Gavin, Anna T; Hayes, Catherine

    2017-10-01

    The aims of this study were to compare time trends in ovarian cancer incidence and mortality in populations with (1) similar genetics but different health care systems (Ireland and Northern Ireland [NI]) and (2)different genetics but similar health care system (Israeli Jews and Arabs) and to interpret the results. Age-standardized rates of ovarian cancer incidence and mortality for 1994-2013 in the 3 countries were obtained from national cancer registries and national statistics. Time trends in incidence, mortality, and incidence-to-mortality ratio were assessed by linear regression models applied to each country and between populations (Ireland-NI, Ireland-Israeli Jews, Israeli Jews-Arabs). Joinpoint analysis was used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC). Ovarian cancer incidence and mortality rates in 1994 were similar in the countries studied. Thereafter a reduction in incidence and mortality was observed in Ireland (incidence APC1994-2013 = -0.75%, P Trends in Israeli Arabs remained stable. Significant incidence trend differences between Ireland and Israeli Jews (P = 0.009) and between Israeli Jews and Arabs (P = 0.004) were observed. The only significant trend difference for mortality was between Israeli Jews and Arabs (P = 0.038). Incidence-to-mortality ratios showed stable trends in all groups except for Israeli Jews (APC1994-2013 = -1.0%, P trends in ovarian cancer incidence (decreasing) and mortality (decreasing) were similar in Ireland, NI, and Israeli Jews, following global trends, with a more prominent incidence decline in Israeli Jews. Decreasing mortality trends are driven by falling incidence in the countries studied rather than improved survival.

  12. Contrasting time trends of organic contaminants in Antarctic pelagic and benthic food webs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brink, van den N.W.; Riddle, M.J.; Heuvel-Greve, van den M.J.; Franeker, van J.A.

    2011-01-01

    We demonstrate that pelagic Antarctic seabirds show significant decreases in concentrations of some persistent organic pollutants. Trends in Adélie penguins and Southern fulmars fit in a general pattern revealed by a broad literature review. Downward trends are also visible in pelagic fish,

  13. Time trends in health inequalities due to care in the context of the Spanish Dependency Law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Salvador-Piedrafita

    2017-01-01

    Conclusions: Between 2006 and 2012, trends in health inequalities attributable to informal care show different trends according to gender and share of responsibility. It is necessary to redesign and implement policies to reduce inequalities that take into account the most affected groups, such as women lone carers. Policies that strengthen the fair social distribution of care should also be adopted.

  14. Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Keith; H. Resit Akcakaya; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Ben Collen; Nicholas K. Dulvy; Elizabeth E. Holmes; Jeffrey A. Hutchings; Doug Keinath; Michael K. Schwartz; Andrew O. Shelton; Robin S. Waples

    2015-01-01

    Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-...

  15. An Improved Generalized-Trend-Diffusion-Based Data Imputation for Steel Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Integrality and validity of industrial data are the fundamental factors in the domain of data-driven modeling. Aiming at the data missing problem of gas flow in steel industry, an improved Generalized-Trend-Diffusion (iGTD algorithm is proposed in this study, where in particular it considers the sort of problem with data properties of consecutively missing and small samples. And, the imputation accuracy can be greatly increased by the proposed Gaussian membership-based GTD which expands the useful knowledge of data samples. In addition, the imputation order is further discussed to enhance the sequential forecasting accuracy of gas flow. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, a series of experiments that consists of three categories of data features in the gas system is presented, and the results indicate that this method is comprehensively better for the imputation of the periodical-like data and the time-series-like data.

  16. Current trends in microbial diagnostics based on mass spectrometry

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Havlíček, Vladimír; Lemr, Karel; Schug, K. A.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 85, č. 2 (2013), s. 790-797 ISSN 0003-2700 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP206/12/1150; GA MŠk(CZ) ME10013 Institutional support: RVO:61388971 Keywords : DESORPTION IONIZATION-TIME * MALDI-TOF-MS * CLINICAL MICROBIOLOGY Subject RIV: EE - Microbiology, Virology Impact factor: 5.825, year: 2013

  17. Climate assessment and trend analysis in air temperature and precipitation time series in Taubaté (SP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Theophilo Folhes

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The main objectives of this paper are to present the temporal climatic characteristics of precipitation and air temperature in Taubaté (SP, in addition to the characterization of the rainy season. The time trend of the climatic elements were studied using the non parametric seasonal Mann-Kendall test. Statistically, no significant average changes in precipitation were detected although a relatively large natural year-to-year variability there exits. A short-term increasing trend from 1983 to 2005 have been observed in November precipitation, a decreasing trend in the amount of the April precipitation and a decreasing trend in the number of dry days per year. This study suggests that the onset of the Taubaté's rainy season occurs in mid-September and the end is in April.

  18. Pediatric vancomycin dosing: Trends over time and the impact of therapeutic drug monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balch, Alfred H; Constance, Jonathan E; Thorell, Emily A; Stockmann, Chris; Korgenski, Ernest K; Campbell, Sarah C; Spigarelli, Michael G; Sherwin, Catherine M T

    2015-02-01

    Monitoring of vancomycin trough concentrations is recommended for pediatric patients in the product label and by several professional societies. However, among a network of freestanding children's hospitals vancomycin therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) practices were reported to be highly variable. In this study, we sought to evaluate whether trends in vancomycin use and TDM changed across a large healthcare delivery system in Utah and Idaho from 2006 to 2012. Children ≤18 years who received ≥2 vancomycin doses were included. Overall, vancomycin TDM was performed during 5,035 (80%) of 6,259 hospital encounters, in which 85,442 doses were administered and 7,935 concentrations were obtained. Across this time period, the median trough concentration increased from 10.9 to 13.7 µg/mL (P vancomycin TDM is commonly performed among children and the majority of abnormal trough concentrations were associated with an appropriate modification to the dosing regimen. © 2014, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

  19. The Knowledge Base for State Policy: Status, Needs, and Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tushnet, Naida C.

    A task of regional educational laboratories is to provide information to state and local education policy makers. The new focus on policy reflects a change in the labs' knowledge base and audience. The subsequent move into the political arena has created risks for the labs, which have responded to the new task in different ways. The nature of the…

  20. Global Trends and School-Based Social Work

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen-Meares, Paula; Montgomery, Katherine L.

    2014-01-01

    In the 21st century, substantial advancements have been made across the globe that positively affect the ability for school-based social workers in the fields of practice, policy, and research to meet the needs of the world's youths. Nonetheless, children continue to suffer from poverty-stricken environments, absence of basic needs, poor or…

  1. State and trends of woody vegetation cover inthe cotton based ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study was carried out in Bala, a village located in the cotton-based farming system zone of Western Burkina Faso. The objective was to assess the effect of increased cotton cultivation on the spatial dynamics and structural characteristics of the woody vegetation. Using aerial photos, an analysis of the land use for the ...

  2. Trends in performance of the National Measles Case-Based ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: Since adoption of the measles case-based surveillance system in Zimbabwe in 1998, data has been routinely collected at all levels of the health delivery system and sent to national level with little or no documented evidence of use to identify risky populations, monitor impact of interventions and measure ...

  3. Future Trends in Reliability-Based Bridge Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    Future bridge management systems will be based on simple stochastic models predicting the residual strength of structural elements. The current deterministic management systems are not effective in optimizing e.g. the life cycle cost of a bridge or a system of bridges. A number of important factors...

  4. Road Traffic Injury Trends in the City of Valledupar, Colombia. A Time Series Study from 2008 to 2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Martín Rodríguez

    Full Text Available To analyze the behavior temporal of road-traffic injuries (RTI in Valledupar, Colombia from January 2008 to December 2012.An observational study was conducted based on records from the Colombian National Legal Medicine and Forensic Sciences Institute regional office in Valledupar. Different variables were analyzed, such as the injured person's sex, age, education level, and type of road user; the timeframe, place and circumstances of crashes and the vehicles associated with the occurrence. Furthermore, a time series analysis was conducted using an auto-regressive integrated moving average.There were 105 events per month on an average, 64.9% of RTI involved men; 82.3% of the persons injured were from 18 to 59 years of age; the average age was 35.4 years of age; the road users most involved in RTI were motorcyclists (69%, followed by pedestrians (12%. 70% had up to upper-secondary education. Sunday was the day with the most RTI occurrences; 93% of the RTI occurred in the urban area. The time series showed a seasonal pattern and a significant trend effect. The modeling process verified the existence of both memory and extrinsic variables related.An RTI occurrence pattern was identified, which showed an upward trend during the period analyzed. Motorcyclists were the main road users involved in RTI, which suggests the need to design and implement specific measures for that type of road user, from regulations for graduated licensing for young drivers to monitoring road user behavior for the promotion of road safety.

  5. Time trends in adult chronic disease inequalities by education in Brazil: 1998-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beltrán-Sánchez, Hiram; Andrade, Flavia C D

    2016-11-17

    Socioeconomic differences in health in Brazil are largely driven by differences in educational attainment. In this paper, we assess whether educational gradients in chronic disease prevalence have narrowed in Brazil from 1998 to 2013, a period of a booming economy accompanied by major investments in public health in the country. Individual-level data came from the 1998, 2003 and 2008 Brazilian National Household Survey and the 2013 National Health Survey. We first evaluate age-standardized prevalence rates of chronic disease by education and second, we predict the estimated prevalence rate between those in low vs. high education to assess if relative changes in chronic disease have narrowed over time. Third, we estimate the slope index of inequality (SII) that evaluates the absolute change in the predicted prevalence of a disease between those in low vs. high education. Finally, we tested for statistically significant time trends in adult chronic disease inequalities by education. Prevalence of diabetes and hypertension have increased over the period, whereas the prevalence of heart disease decreased. Brazilian adults with no education had higher levels of diabetes, hypertension and heart disease than those with some college or more. Adjusted prevalence for hypertension and heart disease indicate some progress in reducing educational disparities over time. However, for diabetes, adjusted results show a continuously increasing educational disparity from 1998 to 2013. By 2013, individuals with no education had about two times higher diabetes prevalence than those with higher education with larger disparity among women. Results confirm findings from previous work that educational inequalities in health are large in Brazil but also provide evidence suggesting some improvement in narrowing these differentials in recent times. Recent policies aiming at reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking and alcohol consumption, and increasing physical activity and consumption of

  6. Time trend and risk factors of avascular bone necrosis in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tse, Sau Mei; Mok, Chi Chiu

    2017-06-01

    Objectives The objective of this paper is to study the time trend and risk factors of avascular bone necrosis (AVN) in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Methods Between 1999 and 2014, patients who fulfilled the ACR criteria for SLE and developed symptomatic AVN were identified from our cohort database and compared with those without AVN, matched for age, sex and SLE duration. The standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) of AVN in different SLE age groups were calculated from data derived from our hospital registry and population census. Risk factors for AVN were studied by logistic regression, adjusted by a propensity score for ever use of high-dose glucocorticoids (GCs). Results Fifty-five SLE patients with AVN and 220 SLE patients without AVN were studied. There were 104 AVN sites involved, with the hips being most commonly affected (82%). The point prevalence of AVN in our SLE cohort was 7.4%. The SIRs of AVN in our SLE patients were 131 (86.6-199; p < 0.001) and 56.0 (34.3-91.4; p < 0.001), respectively, in the periods 1995-2004 and 2005-2014. In both decades, the age-stratified SIR was highest in the youngest age group (<19 years). AVN patients were more likely to be treated with GCs and had received a significantly higher cumulative dose of prednisolone since SLE diagnosis (16.5 vs 10.7 grams; p = 0.001). The SLE damage score (excluding AVN) was also significantly higher in AVN than non-AVN patients (2.5 vs 0.4; p < 0.001). Logistic regression revealed that preceding septic arthritis of the involved joint (odds ratio (OR) 17.7 (1.5-205); p = 0.02), cushingoid body habitus (OR 2.4 (1.1-5.2); p = 0.04), LDL cholesterol level (OR 1.4 (1.0-1.9); p = 0.04), maximum daily dose of prednisolone (OR 6.4 (1.2-33.3); p = 0.03) and cumulative dose of prednisolone received in the first six months of the first lupus flare (OR 1.3 (1.0-1.8); p = 0.046) were independently associated with AVN. Conclusions AVN is prevalent in SLE

  7. Time trends of cancer mortality among elderly in Italy, 1970–2008: an observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bidoli Ettore

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aging of the Italian population will unavoidably lead to a growing number of persons diagnosed and living with cancer. A comprehensive description of the burden of cancer mortality among Italian elderly (65-84 years of age in the last four decades has not been carried out yet. Cancer mortality rates were used to describe time trends between 1970-2008. Methods Mortality counts, provided by the Italian National Institute of Statistics, were grouped according to data availability: in quinquennia from 1970-74 through 1995-99, and in 2000-03 and 2006-08 groups. Age-standardized rates (world population were computed by calendar periods while annual percent changes (APCs were computed for elderly and middle aged (35-64 years people for the period 1995-2008. Results The number of cancer deaths in elderly nearly doubled between 1970-74 (31,400 deaths/year in men, and 24,000 in women and 2006-08 (63,000 deaths/year in men, and 42,000 in women. Overall cancer mortality rates peaked during the quinquennia 1985-89 and 1990-94 (about 1,500/100,000 in men and 680 in women and declined thereafter. Throughout 1995-2008 cancer mortality rates decreased by -1.6%/year in men and -0.9%/year in women. These decreases were mainly driven by cancers of the stomach, bladder, prostate, and lung (APC = -3.3%, -2.7%, -2.5%, -2.2%, respectively in men, and by cancers of the stomach, bladder, and breast (APC = -3.5%, -1.9%, -1.1%, respectively in women. Conversely, increases in mortality rates between 1995 and 2008 were recorded for lung cancer (APC = +0.6% in women, cutaneous melanoma (APC = +1.7% in men, and pancreatic cancer (APC = +0.6% in men and +0.9% in women. Conclusions Overall favorable trends in cancer mortality were observed among Italian elderly between 1995 and 2008. Early diagnosis, improved efficacy of anti-cancer treatments and management of comorbidities are the most likely explanations of these positive

  8. Comparison of two regression-based approaches for determining nutrient and sediment fluxes and trends in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyer, Douglas; Hirsch, Robert M.; Hyer, Kenneth

    2012-01-01

    Nutrient and sediment fluxes and changes in fluxes over time are key indicators that water resource managers can use to assess the progress being made in improving the structure and function of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. The U.S. Geological Survey collects annual nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) and sediment flux data and computes trends that describe the extent to which water-quality conditions are changing within the major Chesapeake Bay tributaries. Two regression-based approaches were compared for estimating annual nutrient and sediment fluxes and for characterizing how these annual fluxes are changing over time. The two regression models compared are the traditionally used ESTIMATOR and the newly developed Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS). The model comparison focused on answering three questions: (1) What are the differences between the functional form and construction of each model? (2) Which model produces estimates of flux with the greatest accuracy and least amount of bias? (3) How different would the historical estimates of annual flux be if WRTDS had been used instead of ESTIMATOR? One additional point of comparison between the two models is how each model determines trends in annual flux once the year-to-year variations in discharge have been determined. All comparisons were made using total nitrogen, nitrate, total phosphorus, orthophosphorus, and suspended-sediment concentration data collected at the nine U.S. Geological Survey River Input Monitoring stations located on the Susquehanna, Potomac, James, Rappahannock, Appomattox, Pamunkey, Mattaponi, Patuxent, and Choptank Rivers in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Two model characteristics that uniquely distinguish ESTIMATOR and WRTDS are the fundamental model form and the determination of model coefficients. ESTIMATOR and WRTDS both predict water-quality constituent concentration by developing a linear relation between the natural logarithm of observed constituent

  9. Trends and Patterns in a New Time Series of Natural and Anthropogenic Methane Emissions, 1980-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, E.; Bruhwiler, L.; Themelis, N. J.

    2007-12-01

    We report on a new time series of methane (CH4) emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources developed for a multi-decadal methane modeling study (see following presentation by Bruhwiler et al.). The emission series extends from 1980 through the early 2000s with annual emissions for all countries has several features distinct from the source histories based on IPCC methods typically employed in modeling the global methane cycle. Fossil fuel emissions rely on 7 fuel-process emission combinations and minimize reliance on highly-uncertain emission factors. Emissions from ruminant animals employ regional profiles of bovine populations that account for the influence of variable age- and size-demographics on emissions and are ~15% lower than other estimates. Waste-related emissions are developed using an approach that avoids using of data-poor emission factors and accounts for impacts of recycling and thermal treatment of waste on diverting material from landfills and CH4 capture at landfill facilities. Emissions from irrigated rice use rice-harvest areas under 3 water-management systems and a new historical data set that analyzes multiple sources for trends in water management since 1980. A time series of emissions from natural wetlands was developed by applying a multiple-regression model derived from full process-based model of Walter with analyzed meteorology from the ERA-40 reanalysis.

  10. A method to assess seasonality of urinary tract infections based on medication sales and google trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossignol, Louise; Pelat, Camille; Lambert, Bruno; Flahault, Antoine; Chartier-Kastler, Emmanuel; Hanslik, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Despite the fact that urinary tract infection (UTI) is a very frequent disease, little is known about its seasonality in the community. To estimate seasonality of UTI using multiple time series constructed with available proxies of UTI. Eight time series based on two databases were used: sales of urinary antibacterial medications reported by a panel of pharmacy stores in France between 2000 and 2012, and search trends on the Google search engine for UTI-related terms between 2004 and 2012 in France, Germany, Italy, the USA, China, Australia and Brazil. Differences between summers and winters were statistically assessed with the Mann-Whitney test. We evaluated seasonality by applying the Harmonics Product Spectrum on Fast Fourier Transform. Seven time series out of eight displayed a significant increase in medication sales or web searches in the summer compared to the winter, ranging from 8% to 20%. The eight time series displayed a periodicity of one year. Annual increases were seen in the summer for UTI drug sales in France and Google searches in France, the USA, Germany, Italy, and China. Increases occurred in the austral summer for Google searches in Brazil and Australia. An annual seasonality of UTIs was evidenced in seven different countries, with peaks during the summer.

  11. A method to assess seasonality of urinary tract infections based on medication sales and google trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louise Rossignol

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Despite the fact that urinary tract infection (UTI is a very frequent disease, little is known about its seasonality in the community. METHODS AND FINDINGS: To estimate seasonality of UTI using multiple time series constructed with available proxies of UTI. Eight time series based on two databases were used: sales of urinary antibacterial medications reported by a panel of pharmacy stores in France between 2000 and 2012, and search trends on the Google search engine for UTI-related terms between 2004 and 2012 in France, Germany, Italy, the USA, China, Australia and Brazil. Differences between summers and winters were statistically assessed with the Mann-Whitney test. We evaluated seasonality by applying the Harmonics Product Spectrum on Fast Fourier Transform. Seven time series out of eight displayed a significant increase in medication sales or web searches in the summer compared to the winter, ranging from 8% to 20%. The eight time series displayed a periodicity of one year. Annual increases were seen in the summer for UTI drug sales in France and Google searches in France, the USA, Germany, Italy, and China. Increases occurred in the austral summer for Google searches in Brazil and Australia. CONCLUSIONS: An annual seasonality of UTIs was evidenced in seven different countries, with peaks during the summer.

  12. Time trends in organ donation after neurologic determination of death: a cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Andreas H.; Baht, Ryan; Doig, Christopher J.

    2017-01-01

    Background: The cause of brain injury may influence the number of organs that can be procured and transplanted with donation following neurologic determination of death. We investigated whether the distribution of causes responsible for neurologic death has changed over time and, if so, whether this has had an impact on organ quality, transplantation rates and recipient outcomes. Methods: We performed a cohort study involving consecutive brain-dead organ donors in southern Alberta between 2003 and 2014. For each donor, we determined last available measures of organ injury and number of organs transplanted, and compared these variables for various causes of neurologic death. We compared trends to national Canadian data for 2000-2013 (2000-2011 for Quebec). Results: There were 226 brain-dead organ donors over the study period, of whom 100 (44.2%) had anoxic brain injury, 63 (27.9%) had stroke, and 51 (22.6%) had traumatic brain injury. The relative proportion of donors with traumatic brain injury decreased over time (> 30% in 2003-2005 v. 6%-23% in 2012-2014) (p = 0.004), whereas that with anoxic brain injury increased (14%-37% v. 46%-80%, respectively) (p organs transplanted per donor was 3.6 with anoxic brain injury versus 4.5 with traumatic brain injury or stroke (p = 0.002). Interpretation: Anoxic brain injury has become a leading cause of organ donation after neurologic determination of death in Canada. Organs from donors with anoxic brain injury have a greater degree of injury, and fewer are transplanted. These findings have implications for availability of organs for transplantation in patients with end-stage organ failure. PMID:28401114

  13. Time trends in organ donation after neurologic determination of death: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Andreas H; Baht, Ryan; Doig, Christopher J

    2017-01-01

    The cause of brain injury may influence the number of organs that can be procured and transplanted with donation following neurologic determination of death. We investigated whether the distribution of causes responsible for neurologic death has changed over time and, if so, whether this has had an impact on organ quality, transplantation rates and recipient outcomes. We performed a cohort study involving consecutive brain-dead organ donors in southern Alberta between 2003 and 2014. For each donor, we determined last available measures of organ injury and number of organs transplanted, and compared these variables for various causes of neurologic death. We compared trends to national Canadian data for 2000-2013 (2000-2011 for Quebec). There were 226 brain-dead organ donors over the study period, of whom 100 (44.2%) had anoxic brain injury, 63 (27.9%) had stroke, and 51 (22.6%) had traumatic brain injury. The relative proportion of donors with traumatic brain injury decreased over time (> 30% in 2003-2005 v. 6%-23% in 2012-2014) ( p = 0.004), whereas that with anoxic brain injury increased (14%-37% v. 46%-80%, respectively) ( p organs transplanted per donor was 3.6 with anoxic brain injury versus 4.5 with traumatic brain injury or stroke ( p = 0.002). Anoxic brain injury has become a leading cause of organ donation after neurologic determination of death in Canada. Organs from donors with anoxic brain injury have a greater degree of injury, and fewer are transplanted. These findings have implications for availability of organs for transplantation in patients with end-stage organ failure.

  14. New trends in aptamer-based electrochemical biosensors

    OpenAIRE

    Velasco-Garcia, Maria; Missailidis, Sotiris

    2009-01-01

    The analytical characteristics of aptamers are comparable with those of antibodies for the development of biosensor technology. However, aptamers offer some crucial advantages over antibodies such as selection capability for a variety of targets, easy synthesis, improved reproducibility and stability, simple modification for immobilization to solid supports and enhanced selectivity. This article reviews aptamer technology as well as aptamer-based assay configurations and goes on to explore re...

  15. Is there a time trend in medical practice variations?: a review of the literature and an critical analysis of theoretical approaches.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenewegen, P.P.; Westert, G.P.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this study was to review the research evidence for a decreasing time trend in medical practice variation and to contribute to our theoretical understanding of trends in medical practice variations. We searched Pubmed for articles reporting on time trends in medical practice variations.

  16. Time Trends and Educational Inequalities in Out-of-Hospital Coronary Deaths in Norway 1995-2009

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sulo, Enxhela; Nygård, Ottar; Vollset, Stein Emil

    2017-01-01

    ), or tertiary (college/university). Educational gradients in OHCD were explored using Poisson regression, stratified by sex and age (...BACKGROUND: Recent time trends and educational gradients characterizing out-of-hospital coronary deaths (OHCD) are poorly described. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified all deaths from coronary heart disease occurring outside the hospital in Norway during 1995 to 2009. Time trends were explored...... using Poisson regression analysis with year as the independent, continuous variable. Information on the highest achieved education was obtained from The National Education Database and classified as primary (up to 10 years of compulsory education), secondary (high school or vocational school...

  17. The demise of multidrug-resistant HIV-1: the national time trend in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vercauteren, Jurgen; Theys, Kristof; Carvalho, Ana Patricia; Valadas, Emília; Duque, Luis Miguel; Teófilo, Eugénio; Faria, Telo; Faria, Domitília; Vera, José; Águas, Maria João; Peres, Susana; Mansinho, Kamal; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Camacho, Ricardo Jorge; Mansinho, Kamal; Cláudia Miranda, Ana; Aldir, Isabel; Ventura, Fernando; Nina, Jaime; Borges, Fernando; Valadas, Emília; Doroana, Manuela; Antunes, Francisco; João Aleixo, Maria; João Águas, Maria; Botas, Júlio; Branco, Teresa; Vera, José; Vaz Pinto, Inês; Poças, José; Sá, Joana; Duque, Luis; Diniz, António; Mineiro, Ana; Gomes, Flora; Santos, Carlos; Faria, Domitília; Fonseca, Paula; Proença, Paula; Tavares, Luís; Guerreiro, Cristina; Narciso, Jorge; Faria, Telo; Teófilo, Eugénio; Pinheiro, Sofia; Germano, Isabel; Caixas, Umbelina; Faria, Nancy; Paula Reis, Ana; Bentes Jesus, Margarida; Amaro, Graça; Roxo, Fausto; Abreu, Ricardo; Neves, Isabel

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Despite a decreasing mortality and morbidity in treated HIV-1 patients, highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) can still fail due to the development of drug resistance. Especially, multidrug-resistant viruses pose a threat to efficient therapy. We studied the changing prevalence of multidrug resistance (MDR) over time in a cohort of HIV-1-infected patients in Portugal. Patients and methods We used data of 8065 HIV-1-infected patients followed from July 2001 up to April 2012 in 22 hospitals located in Portugal. MDR at a specific date of sampling was defined as no more than one fully active drug (excluding integrase and entry inhibitors) at that time authorized by the Portuguese National Authority of Medicines and Health Products (INFARMED), as interpreted with the Rega algorithm version 8.0.2. A generalized linear mixed model was used to study the time trend of the prevalence of MDR. Results We observed a statistically significant decrease in the prevalence of MDR over the last decade, from 6.9% (95% CI: 5.7–8.4) in 2001–03, 6.0% (95% CI: 4.9–7.2) in 2003–05, 3.7% (95% CI: 2.8–4.8) in 2005–07 and 1.6% (95% CI: 1.1–2.2) in 2007–09 down to 0.6% (95% CI: 0.3–0.9) in 2009–12 [OR = 0.80 (95% CI: 0.75–0.86); P < 0.001]. In July 2011 the last new case of MDR was seen. Conclusions The prevalence of multidrug-resistant HIV-1 is decreasing over time in Portugal, reflecting the increasing efficiency of HAART and the availability of new drugs. Therefore, in designing a new drug, safety and practical aspects, e.g. less toxicity and ease of use, may need more attention than focusing mainly on efficacy against resistant strains. PMID:23228933

  18. Recent Trends on Electrochemical Sensors Based on Ordered Mesoporous Carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walcarius, Alain

    2017-01-01

    The past decade has seen an increasing number of extensive studies devoted to the exploitation of ordered mesoporous carbon (OMC) materials in electrochemistry, notably in the fields of energy and sensing. The present review summarizes the recent achievements made in field of electroanalysis using electrodes modified with such nanomaterials. On the basis of comprehensive tables, the interest in OMC for designing electrochemical sensors is illustrated through the various applications developed to date. They include voltammetric detection after preconcentration, electrocatalysis (intrinsically due to OMC or based on suitable catalysts deposited onto OMC), electrochemical biosensors, as well as electrochemiluminescence and potentiometric sensors. PMID:28800106

  19. Time trends in incidence rates of diagnosed attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder across 16 years in a nationwide Danish registry study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohr Jensen, Christina; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph

    2015-03-01

    To investigate time trends in incidence rates of first-time diagnosed attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in a nationwide sample aged 4-65 years across 16 years and identify potential contributing factors to these time trends. Incidence rates of first-time diagnosed ADHD based on ICD-10 criteria in Danish psychiatric hospitals per 100,000 person years (PY) were calculated for the total population, the 2 sexes, and 4 age groups using data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry and annual census data. Time trends and the role of contributing factors were analyzed and identified using joinpoint regression procedures by calculating annual percent changes for the time period 1995-2010. A total of 20,281 patients were diagnosed with ADHD and incidence rates increased from 7.3 to 91.2 per 100,000 PY during the study period. Joinpoint analysis suggested that incidence rates for diagnosed ADHD rapidly increased from 1998 to 2002, peaked from 2002 to 2008, and slowed down from 2008 to 2010. Contributing factors to the observed time trends were a general increase in patients seen in psychiatry for any mental disorder and an increased awareness and recognition of ADHD in females, adolescents, and adults. These results provide empirical data needed in the public and professional debate often based on theoretical rather than empirical arguments. Results support the notion of increasing incidence rates of diagnosed ADHD and identify that contributing factors are a general increase in the number of patients assessed in psychiatry and an increased recognition of females, adolescents, and adults with ADHD. © Copyright 2015 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

  20. New Trends in Agent-Based Complex Automated Negotiations

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Minjie; Robu, Valentin; Fatima, Shaheen; Matsuo, Tokuro

    2012-01-01

    Complex Automated Negotiations represent an important, emerging area in the field of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems. Automated negotiations can be complex, since there are a lot of factors that characterize such negotiations. These factors include the number of issues, dependencies between these issues,  representation of utilities, the negotiation protocol, the number of parties in the negotiation (bilateral or multi-party), time constraints, etc. Software agents can support automation or simulation of such complex negotiations on the behalf of their owners, and can provide them with efficient bargaining strategies. To realize such a complex automated negotiation, we have to incorporate advanced Artificial Intelligence technologies includes search, CSP, graphical utility models, Bayes nets, auctions, utility graphs, predicting and learning methods. Applications could include e-commerce tools, decision-making support tools, negotiation support tools, collaboration tools, etc. This book aims to pro...

  1. Body-size trends of the extinct giant shark Carcharocles megalodon: a deep-time perspective on marine apex predators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimiento, Catalina; Balk, Meghan A

    2015-06-01

    The extinct shark Carcharocles megalodon is one of the largest marine apex predators ever to exist. Nonetheless, little is known about its body-size variations through time and space. Here, we studied the body-size trends of C. megalodon through its temporal and geographic range to better understand its ecology and evolution. Given that this species was the last of the megatooth lineage, a group of species that shows a purported size increase through time, we hypothesized that C. megalodon also displayed this trend, increasing in size over time and reaching its largest size prior to extinction. We found that C. megalodon body-size distribution was left-skewed (suggesting a long-term selective pressure favoring larger individuals), and presented significant geographic variation (possibly as a result of the heterogeneous ecological constraints of this cosmopolitan species) over geologic time. Finally, we found that stasis was the general mode of size evolution of C. megalodon (i.e., no net changes over time), contrasting with the trends of the megatooth lineage and our hypothesis. Given that C. megalodon is a relatively long-lived species with a widely distributed fossil record, we further used this study system to provide a deep-time perspective to the understanding of the body-size trends of marine apex predators. For instance, our results suggest that (1) a selective pressure in predatory sharks for consuming a broader range of prey may favor larger individuals and produce left-skewed distributions on a geologic time scale; (2) body-size variations in cosmopolitan apex marine predators may depend on their interactions with geographically discrete communities; and (3) the inherent characteristics of shark species can produce stable sizes over geologic time, regardless of the size trends of their lineages.

  2. Power to detect trend in short-term time series of bird abundance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thogmartin, W.E.; Gray, B.R.; Gallagher, M.; Young, N.; Rohweder, J.J.; Knutson, M.G.

    2007-01-01

    Avian point counts for population monitoring are often collected over a short timespan (e.g., 3-5 years). We examined whether power was adequate (power ???0.80) in short-duration studies to warrant the calculation of trend estimates. We modeled power to detect trends in abundance indices of eight bird species occurring across three floodplain habitats (wet prairie, early successional forest, and mature forest) as a function of trend magnitude, sample size, and species-specific sampling and among-year variance components. Point counts (5 min) were collected from 365 locations distributed among 10 study sites along the lower Missouri River; counts were collected over the period 2002 to 2004. For all study species, power appeared adequate to detect trends in studies of short duration (three years) at a single site when exponential declines were relatively large in magnitude (more than -5% year-1) and the sample of point counts per year was ???30. Efforts to monitor avian trends with point counts in small managed lands (i.e., refuges and parks) should recognize this sample size restriction by including point counts from offsite locations as a means of obtaining sufficient numbers of samples per strata. Trends of less than -5% year-1 are not likely to be consistently detected for most species over the short term, but short-term monitoring may still be useful as the basis for comparisons with future surveys. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2007.

  3. Current Trends in Nanomaterial-Based Amperometric Biosensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akhtar Hayat

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The last decade has witnessed an intensive research effort in the field of electrochemical sensors, with a particular focus on the design of amperometric biosensors for diverse analytical applications. In this context, nanomaterial integration in the construction of amperometric biosensors may constitute one of the most exciting approaches. The attractive properties of nanomaterials have paved the way for the design of a wide variety of biosensors based on various electrochemical detection methods to enhance the analytical characteristics. However, most of these nanostructured materials are not explored in the design of amperometric biosensors. This review aims to provide insight into the diverse properties of nanomaterials that can be possibly explored in the construction of amperometric biosensors.

  4. NASA trend analysis procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-01-01

    This publication is primarily intended for use by NASA personnel engaged in managing or implementing trend analysis programs. 'Trend analysis' refers to the observation of current activity in the context of the past in order to infer the expected level of future activity. NASA trend analysis was divided into 5 categories: problem, performance, supportability, programmatic, and reliability. Problem trend analysis uncovers multiple occurrences of historical hardware or software problems or failures in order to focus future corrective action. Performance trend analysis observes changing levels of real-time or historical flight vehicle performance parameters such as temperatures, pressures, and flow rates as compared to specification or 'safe' limits. Supportability trend analysis assesses the adequacy of the spaceflight logistics system; example indicators are repair-turn-around time and parts stockage levels. Programmatic trend analysis uses quantitative indicators to evaluate the 'health' of NASA programs of all types. Finally, reliability trend analysis attempts to evaluate the growth of system reliability based on a decreasing rate of occurrence of hardware problems over time. Procedures for conducting all five types of trend analysis are provided in this publication, prepared through the joint efforts of the NASA Trend Analysis Working Group.

  5. Weekly Trends in Preschoolers’ Physical Activity and Sedentary Time in Childcare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leigh M. Vanderloo

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This study sought to examine how the physical activity levels and sedentary time of preschoolers attending center-based childcare varied across the week. Sex differences were also explored. Participants (n = 101 wore Actical™ accelerometers (15 s epoch for five consecutive days during childcare hours only. A multivariate repeated measures analysis of variance was used to evaluate levels of sedentary, light, and moderate-to-vigorous (MVPA physical activity across the five weekdays. Total physical activity (TPA was analyzed separately in a univariate repeated measures ANOVA. Sex was entered as an additional between-subjects factor. Levels of sedentary time, LPA, and TPA across the week were found to be statistically significant, and can best be described by quadratic effects. Participants’ activity levels and sedentary time typically peaked mid-week. Levels of physical activity and sedentary time were not found to significantly differ based on sex. Childcare centers may benefit from the introduction and/or modification of active play-based programming and curricula, particularly at the start and end of the week where preschoolers’ activity levels tend to be lower. Additional investigations are required to confirm these findings.

  6. Trends in web-based HIV behavioural surveillance among gay and bisexual men in New Zealand: complementing location-based surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxton, Peter J W; Dickson, Nigel P; Hughes, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Most HIV behavioural surveillance programmes for gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (MSM) sample from location-based (offline) or web-based (online) populations, but few combine these two streams. MSM sampled online have been found to differ demographically and behaviourally from those sampled offline, meaning trends identified in one system may not hold for the other. The aim was to examine trends among MSM responding to supplementary repeat online behavioural surveillance surveys who had not participated in offline surveillance earlier that year in the same city, to see whether trends were parallel, converged or diverged. We recruited a total of 1613 MSM from an Internet dating site in Auckland, New Zealand in 2006, 2008 and 2011 using identical questionnaires and eligibility criteria to offline surveillance. Condom use was stable over time, HIV testing rates rose, the proportion reporting over 20 recent male partners declined, and anal intercourse rates increased, consistent with trends in offline surveillance conducted concomitantly and reported elsewhere. Variant trends included greater stability in condom use with casual partners among online-recruited MSM, and a rise in regular fuckbuddy partnering not identified among offline-recruited MSM. Among MSM recruited online, the frequency of checking Internet dating profiles increased between 2008 and 2011. In conclusion, supplementary web-based behavioural surveillance among MSM generally corroborates trends identified in offline surveillance. There are however some divergent trends, that would have been overlooked if only one form of surveillance had been conducted. As MSM populations increasingly shift their socialising patterns online and diversify, multiple forms of HIV behavioural monitoring may be required.

  7. Out-of-pocket expenditures for primary health care in Tajikistan: a time-trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, Joëlle; Wyss, Kaspar; Gulyamova, Zulfiya M; Sharipov, Soleh

    2013-03-18

    Aligned with the international call for universal coverage of affordable and quality health care, the government of Tajikistan is undertaking reforms of its health system aiming amongst others at reducing the out-of-pocket expenditures (OPE) of patients seeking care. Household surveys were conducted in 2005, 2007, 2008 and 2011 to explore the scale and determinants of OPE of users in four district of Tajikistan, where health care is legally free of charge at the primary level. Using the data from four cross-sectional household surveys conducted between 2005 and 2011, time trends in OPE for consultation fees, drugs and transport costs of adult users of family medicine services were analysed. To investigate differences along the economic status, an asset index was constructed using principal component analysis. Adjusted for inflation, OPE for primary care have substantially increased in the period 2005 to 2011. While the proportion of patients reporting the payment of informal consultation fees to providers and their amount were constant over time, the proportion of patients reporting expenditures for drugs has increased, and the median amounts have doubled from 5.3 US$ to 10.7 US$. Thus, the expenditures on medicine represent the biggest financial burden for patients accessing a primary care facility. Regression models showed that in 2011 patients from the most remote district with spread-out villages reported significant higher expenditures on medicine. Besides the steady increase in the median amount for OPE, the proportion of patients reporting making an informal payment to their care provider showed great variations across district of residence (between 20% and 73%) and economic status (between 33% among the 'worst-off' group and 68% among the 'better-off' group). In a context of limited governmental funds allocated to health and financing reforms aiming to improve financial access to primary care, the present paper indicates that in Tajikistan OPE - especially

  8. Rate and time trend of perinatal, infant, maternal mortality, natality and natural population growth in kosovo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azemi, Mehmedali; Gashi, Sanije; Berisha, Majlinda; Kolgeci, Selim; Ismaili-Jaha, Vlora

    2012-01-01

    THE AIM OF WORK HAS BEEN THE PRESENTATION OF THE RATE AND TIME TRENDS OF SOME INDICATORS OF THE HEATH CONDITION OF MOTHERS AND CHILDREN IN KOSOVO: fetal mortality, early neonatal mortality, perinatal mortality, infant mortality, natality, natural growth of population etc. The treated patients were the newborn and infants in the post neonatal period, women during their pregnancy and those 42 days before and after the delivery. THE DATA WERE TAKEN FROM: register of the patients treated in the Pediatric Clinic of Prishtina, World Health Organization, Mother and Child Health Care, Reproductive Health Care, Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kosovo, Statistical Department of Kosovo, the National Institute of Public Health and several academic texts in the field of pediatrics. Some indicators were analyzed in a period between year 1945-2010 and 1950-2010, whereas some others were analyzed in a time period between year 2000 and 2011. The perinatal mortality rate in 2000 was 29.1‰, whereas in 2011 it was 18.7‰. The fetal mortality rate was 14.5‰ during the year 2000, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰, in 2000 the early neonatal mortality was 14.8‰, in 2011 it was 7.5‰. The infant mortality in Kosovo was 164‰ in 1950, whereas in 2010 it was 20.5‰. The most frequent causes of infant mortality have been: lower respiratory tract infections, acute infective diarrhea, perinatal causes, congenital malformations and unclassified conditions. Maternal death rate varied during this time period. Maternal death in 2000 was 23 whereas in 2010 only two cases were reported. Regarding the natality, in 1950 it reached 46.1 ‰, whereas in 2010 it reached 14‰, natural growth of population rate in Kosovo was 29.1‰ in 1950, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰. Perinatal mortality rate in Kosovo is still high in comparison with other European countries (Turkey and Kyrgyzstan have the highest perinatal mortality rate), even though it is in a continuous decrease. Infant mortality

  9. Rate and Time Trend of Perinatal, Infant, Maternal Mortality, Natality and Natural Population Growth in Kosovo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azemi, Mehmedali; Gashi, Sanije; Berisha, Majlinda; Kolgeci, Selim; Ismaili-Jaha, Vlora

    2012-01-01

    Aim: The aim of work has been the presentation of the rate and time trends of some indicators of the heath condition of mothers and children in Kosovo: fetal mortality, early neonatal mortality, perinatal mortality, infant mortality, natality, natural growth of population etc. The treated patients were the newborn and infants in the post neonatal period, women during their pregnancy and those 42 days before and after the delivery. Methods: The data were taken from: register of the patients treated in the Pediatric Clinic of Prishtina, World Health Organization, Mother and Child Health Care, Reproductive Health Care, Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kosovo, Statistical Department of Kosovo, the National Institute of Public Health and several academic texts in the field of pediatrics. Some indicators were analyzed in a period between year 1945-2010 and 1950-2010, whereas some others were analyzed in a time period between year 2000 and 2011. Results: The perinatal mortality rate in 2000 was 29.1‰, whereas in 2011 it was 18.7‰. The fetal mortality rate was 14.5‰ during the year 2000, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰, in 2000 the early neonatal mortality was 14.8‰, in 2011 it was 7.5‰. The infant mortality in Kosovo was 164‰ in 1950, whereas in 2010 it was 20.5‰. The most frequent causes of infant mortality have been: lower respiratory tract infections, acute infective diarrhea, perinatal causes, congenital malformations and unclassified conditions. Maternal death rate varied during this time period. Maternal death in 2000 was 23 whereas in 2010 only two cases were reported. Regarding the natality, in 1950 it reached 46.1 ‰, whereas in 2010 it reached 14‰, natural growth of population rate in Kosovo was 29.1‰ in 1950, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰. Conclusion: Perinatal mortality rate in Kosovo is still high in comparison with other European countries (Turkey and Kyrgyzstan have the highest perinatal mortality rate), even though it is in a

  10. Trend of computer-based console for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wajima, Tsunetaka; Serizawa, Michiya

    1975-01-01

    The amount of informations to be watched by the operators in the central operation room increased with the increase of the capacity of nuclear power generation plants, and the necessity of computer-based consoles, in which the informations are compiled and the rationalization of the interface between the operators and the plants is intended by introducing CRT displays and process computers, became to be recognized. The integrated monitoring and controlling system is explained briefly by taking Dungeness B Nuclear Power Station in Britain as a typical example. This power station comprises two AGRs, and these two plants can be controlled in one central control room, each by one man. Three computers including stand-by one are installed. Each computer has the core memory of 16 K words (24 bits/word), and 4 magnetic drums of 256 K words are installed as the external memory. The peripheral equipments are 12 CRT displays, 6 typewriters, high speed tape reader and tape punch for each plant. The display and record of plant data, the analysis, display and record of alarms, the control of plants including reactors, and post incident record are assigned to the computers. In Hitachi Ltd. in Japan, the introduction of color CRTs, the developments of operating consoles, new data-accessing method, and the consoles for maintenance management are in progress. (Kako, I.)

  11. Assessment of land degradation using time series trend analysis of vegetation indictors in Otindag Sandy land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, H Y; Li, Z Y; Gao, Z H; Wu, J J; Sun, B; Li, C L

    2014-01-01

    Land condition assessment is a basic prerequisite for finding the degradation of a territory, which might lead to desertification under climatic and human pressures. The temporal change in vegetation productivity is a key indicator of land degradation. In this paper, taking the Otindag Sandy Land as a case, the mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI a ), net primary production (NPP) and vegetation rain use efficiency (RUE) dynamic trends during 2001–2010 were analysed. The Mann-Kendall test and the Correlation Analysis method were used and their sensitivities to land degradation were evaluated. The results showed that the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE) showed a downward trend with the two methods in the past 10 years and the land was degraded. For the analysis of the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE), it indicated a decreasing trend in 62.57%, 74.16% and 88.56% of the study area according to the Mann-Kendall test and in 57.85%, 68.38% and 85.29% according to the correlation analysis method. However, the change trends were not significant, the significant trends at the 95% confidence level only accounted for a small proportion. Analysis of NDVI a , NPP and RUE series showed a significant decreasing trend in 9.21%, 4.81% and 6.51% with the Mann-Kendall test. The NPP change trends showed obvious positive link with the precipitation in the study area. While the effect of the inter-annual variation of the precipitation for RUE was small, the vegetation RUE can provide valuable insights into the status of land condition and had best sensitivity to land degradation

  12. Development of a Charpy master curve-based embrittlement trend curve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erikson, M.

    2011-01-01

    Under the current U.S. surveillance programs, the Charpy V-notch energy (CVE), yield strength, and tensile strength are measured (all as a function of test temperature) at various times during the operational life of the reactor vessel. Conventionally, the CVE vs. temperature data are fit using a hyperbolic tangent (tanh) function to determine the temperature at which the mean CVE is equal to 30 ft-lbs (41J). This index temperature, which is designated T30 or T41J, is used to track irradiation damage. Recently an alternative strategy for fitting the CVE vs. temperature data was proposed in which a single CVE vs. temperature relationship appears to well represent the behavior of a very wide variety of ferritic steels for temperatures at and below fracture mode transition. It was demonstrated that when upper shelf data are excluded from a fit of Charpy V-notch energy (CVE) vs. temperature a single exponential function is found that well represents the transition temperature behavior of ferritic steels. The findings suggest that a reanalysis of already tested Charpy surveillance specimens can provide the basis for development of an embrittlement trend curve that is less influenced by the biases that arise from the tanh curve fitting method. Recently, a program was initiated with a goal of using the Charpy MC transition data fit to define a reference temperature, to use instead of the traditionally defined tanh-based T30/T41J reference temperature, in development of an embrittlement trend curve. The existing USLWR database was mined for datasets with sufficient data points within the transition temperature region for use in defining a TCVE reference temperature. These values were then used to define ΔTCVE data with irradiation. This data, along with chemistry, temperature, flux and fluence information, was used to develop the embrittlement trend curve presented herein. Predictions of embrittlement behavior made using this ETC were then compared to predictions made

  13. Population trends for North American winter birds based on hierarchical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soykan, Candan U.; Sauer, John; Schuetz, Justin G.; LeBaron, Geoffrey S.; Dale, Kathy; Langham, Gary M.

    2016-01-01

    Managing widespread and persistent threats to birds requires knowledge of population dynamics at large spatial and temporal scales. For over 100 yrs, the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) has enlisted volunteers in bird monitoring efforts that span the Americas, especially southern Canada and the United States. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical model to control for variation in survey effort among CBC circles and, using CBC data from 1966 to 2013, generated early-winter population trend estimates for 551 species of birds. Selecting a subset of species that do not frequent bird feeders and have ≥25% range overlap with the distribution of CBC circles (228 species) we further estimated aggregate (i.e., across species) trends for the entire study region and at the level of states/provinces, Bird Conservation Regions, and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Moreover, we examined the relationship between ten biological traits—range size, population size, migratory strategy, habitat affiliation, body size, diet, number of eggs per clutch, age at sexual maturity, lifespan, and tolerance of urban/suburban settings—and CBC trend estimates. Our results indicate that 68% of the 551 species had increasing trends within the study area over the interval 1966–2013. When trends were examined across the subset of 228 species, the median population trend for the group was 0.9% per year at the continental level. At the regional level, aggregate trends were positive in all but a few areas. Negative population trends were evident in lower latitudes, whereas the largest increases were at higher latitudes, a pattern consistent with range shifts due to climate change. Nine of 10 biological traits were significantly associated with median population trend; however, none of the traits explained >34% of the deviance in the data, reflecting the indirect relationships between population trend estimates and species traits. Trend estimates based on the CBC are broadly congruent with

  14. Increasing Short-Stay Unplanned Hospital Admissions among Children in England; Time Trends Analysis ’97–‘06

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxena, Sonia; Bottle, Alex; Gilbert, Ruth; Sharland, Mike

    2009-01-01

    Background Timely care by general practitioners in the community keeps children out of hospital and provides better continuity of care. Yet in the UK, access to primary care has diminished since 2004 when changes in general practitioners' contracts enabled them to ‘opt out’ of providing out-of-hours care and since then unplanned pediatric hospital admission rates have escalated, particularly through emergency departments. We hypothesised that any increase in isolated short stay admissions for childhood illness might reflect failure to manage these cases in the community over a 10 year period spanning these changes. Methods and Findings We conducted a population based time trends study of major causes of hospital admission in children 2 days. By 2006, 67.3% of all unplanned admissions were isolated short stays <2 days. The increases in admission rates were greater for common non-infectious than infectious causes of admissions. Conclusions Short stay unplanned hospital admission rates in young children in England have increased substantially in recent years and are not accounted for by reductions in length of in-hospital stay. The majority are isolated short stay admissions for minor illness episodes that could be better managed by primary care in the community and may be evidence of a failure of primary care services. PMID:19829695

  15. Nationwide trends in development of heart failure and mortality after first-time myocardial infarction 1997-2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjesing, Anne; Gislason, Gunnar H; Køber, Lars

    2014-01-01

    AIMS: Pharmacological and revascularization strategies following myocardial infarction (MI) have changed substantially during the last two decades. We investigated the temporal trends in heart failure (HF) incidence and mortality during the first 90 days following first-time MI between 1997...

  16. Determination of the nature of growth of the main trends of time series in small quantity of observations

    OpenAIRE

    Poutko, Boris

    2011-01-01

    The problem of determining the nature of growth in the short time series (an alternative choice between linear and exponential trend). We propose a simple criterion for selection. The result can be used, including in medicine, in particular, the interpretation of dynamics in the tumor marker

  17. Time trends (1993-1997) and seasonal variation in body mass index and waist circumference in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visscher, T L S; Seidell, J C

    2004-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To compare the time trend and seasonal variation in body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference. DESIGN: Continuous monitoring health survey carried out between 1 June 1993 and 31 May 1997. SUBJECTS: A total of 8,186 men and 9,638 women aged 20-59 y from three towns in the Netherlands.

  18. Impact analysis of the time trend of TBR and irradiation damage assessment of HCSB blanket for CFETR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeng, Qin, E-mail: zengqin@ustc.edu.cn; Chen, Hongli; Lv, Zhongliang; Pan, Lei; Zhang, Haoran; Shi, Wei

    2017-01-15

    Chinese Fusion Engineering Testing Reactor (CFETR) is a test tokamak reactor to bridge the gap between ITER and future fusion power plants and to demonstrate generation of fusion power in China. In fusion power plants, tritium is generated from the reaction of neutron and Lithium. One of the missions of CFETR is the full cycle of tritium self-sufficiency. For the mission, a Helium Cooled Solid Breeder blanket (HCSB) was proposed for CFETR and its conceptual design has been carried out. In order to assess the capacity of the tritium breeding and irradiation damage of first wall of the HCSB blanket during the 8 years’ engineering test stage, this paper presents the time trend of TBR analysis and irradiation damage assessment of HCSB blanket based on the three-dimensional (3D) neutronics model which is created by McCad. In the 3D neutronics model, the outboard blanket on equatorial plane is described based on the detailed 3D engineering model. The calculations were performed by MCNP and FISPACT with FENDL/2.1 data library. The impact analysis of the thickness of coolant plates (CP) and the structural material content in CPs to the TBR is assessment.

  19. Assessment of trends in inundation extent in the Barotse Floodplain, upper Zambezi River Basin: A remote sensing-based approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry Zimba

    2018-02-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The results revealed that there is observable inter-annual variability in inundation extent in the Barotse Floodplain with prominent differences demonstrated in both the flood ascending/peak and receding period. For the period 2003–2013 the results indicated a rising trend in inundation extent with a Mann–Kendall Z statistic of 1.71 and increase in magnitude of 33.1 km2 at significance level alpha of 0.05. Strong correlations between inundation extent and water level and between inundation extent and discharge with correlation coefficients of determination of 0.86 and 0.89 respectively were observed. For the period 2000–2011 water level time series showed a rising trend with the Mann–Kendall Z statistic of 2.97 and increase in magnitude of 0.1 m at significance level alpha of 0.05. Overall, during the period 1952–2004 discharge in the floodplain showed a declining trend with Mann–Kendall Z statistics of −2.88 and −3.38 at the inlet and outlet of the floodplain respectively. By correlation inference, the overall inundation extent trend in the floodplain was in a downward movement. Rainfall and discharge variability, high evapotranspiration and the changes in the land cover-use in the catchment of the floodplain are largely the factors affecting the observed variability and trends in inundation extent in the floodplain. The presented remote sensing based approach significantly reduces the need for the expensive and time limiting traditional physical field based wetland inundation mapping methods that form a limitation for achieving progress in wetland monitoring especially in open and sparsely gauged floodplains such as the Barotse.

  20. Modeling the Trend of Credit Card Usage Behavior for Different Age Groups Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Nai

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Credit card holders from different age groups have different usage behaviors, so deeply investigating the credit card usage condition and properly modeling the usage trend of all customers in different age groups from time series data is meaningful for financial institutions as well as banks. Until now, related research in trend analysis of credit card usage has mostly been focused on specific group of people, such as the behavioral tendencies of the elderly or college students, or certain behaviors, such as the increasing number of cards owned and the rise in personal card debt or bankruptcy, in which the only analysis methods employed are simply enumerating or classifying raw data; thus, there is a lack of support in specific mathematical models based on usage behavioral time series data. Considering that few systematic modeling methods have been introduced, in this paper, a novel usage trend analysis method for credit card holders in different age groups based on singular spectrum analysis (SSA has been proposed, using the time series data from the Survey of Consumer Payment Choice (SCPC. The decomposition and reconstruction process in the method is proposed. The results show that the credit card usage frequency falls down from the age of 26 to the lowest point at around the age of 58 and then begins to increase again. At last, future work is discussed.

  1. Forty years trends in timing of pubertal growth spurt in 157,000 Danish school children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aksglæde, Lise; Olsen, Lina Wøhlk; Sørensen, Thorkild I.A.

    2008-01-01

    study was to determine if the age at onset of pubertal growth spurt (OGS) and at peak height velocity (PHV) during puberty show secular trends during four decades in a large cohort of school children. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Annual measurements of height were available in all children born from 1930...... to 1969 who attended primary school in the Copenhagen Municipality. 135,223 girls and 21,612 boys fulfilled the criteria for determining age at OGS and age at PHV. These physiological events were used as markers of pubertal development in our computerized method in order to evaluate any secular trends...... a secular trend towards earlier sexual maturation of Danish children born between 1930 and 1969. Only minor changes were observed in duration of puberty assessed by the difference in ages at OGS and PHV Udgivelsesdato: 2008...

  2. Aircraft emission inventories for scheduled air traffic for the 1976-92 time period. Historical trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baughcum, S.L.; Henderson, S.C.; Tritz, T.G. [Boeing Co., Seattle, WA (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Emission inventories of fuel burned, NO{sub x}, CO, and hydrocarbons have been calculated for scheduled air traffic in 1976, 1984, 1990 and 1992 on a 1 deg latitude x 1 deg longitude x 1 km pressure altitude grid. Using this database, the seasonal variation and historical trends in aircraft emissions have been calculated for selected geographical regions (e.g., North Atlantic, Europe, North America, North Pacific). The trend in emissions is a combination of the effects of passenger demand growth, improved aircraft efficiency, changes in combustor characteristics, and aircraft size. (author) 8 refs.

  3. Historical Trends in Ground-Based Optical Space Surveillance System Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoemaker, M.; Shroyer, L.

    In the spirit of the 50th anniversary of the launch of the first man-made satellite, an historical overview of ground-based optical space surveillance systems is provided. Specific emphasis is given on gathering metrics to analyze design trends. The subject of space surveillance spans the history of spaceflight: from the early tracking cameras at missile ranges, the first observations of Sputnik, to the evolution towards highly capable commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) systems, and much in between. Whereas previous reviews in the literature have been limited in scope to specific time periods, operational programs, countries, etc., a broad overview of a wide range of sources is presented. This review is focused on systems whose primary design purpose can be classified as Space Object Identification (SOI) or Orbit Determination (OD). SOI systems are those that capture images or data to determine information about the satellite itself, such as attitude, features, and material composition. OD systems are those that produce estimates of the satellite position, usually in the form of orbital elements or a time history of tracking angles. Systems are also categorized based on the orbital regime in which their targets reside, which has been simplified in this study to either Low Earth Orbit (LEO) or Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO). The systems are further classified depending on the industry segment (government/commercial or academic), and whether the program is foreign or domestic. In addition to gathering metrics on systems designed solely for man-made satellite observations, it is interesting to find examples of other systems being similarly used. Examples include large astronomical telescopes being used for GEO debris surveys and anomaly resolution for deep-space probes. Another interesting development is the increase in number and capability of COTS systems, some of which are specifically marketed to consumers as satellite trackers. After describing the results of the

  4. Time Trends in Self-Rated Health and Disability in Older Spanish People: Differences by Gender and Age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giron, Pedro

    2016-03-01

    To analyse time trends in self-rated health in older people by gender and age and examine disability in the time trends of self-rated health. The data used come from the Spanish National Health Surveys conducted in 2001, 2003, 2006 and 2011-12. Samples of adults aged 16 yr and older were selected. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess the association between age, gender, socio-economic status, marital status, disability and self-rated health across period study. Women exhibited lower (higher) prevalence of good self-rated health (disability) compared to men. The multivariate analysis for time trends found that good self-rated health increased from 2001 to 2012. Overall, variables associated with a lower likelihood of good self-rated health were: being married or living with a partner, lower educational level, and disability. Trends of good self-rated health differ by gender according to socio-demographic factors and the prevalence of disability.

  5. Nonparametric trend estimation in the presence of fractal noise: application to fMRI time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afshinpour, Babak; Hossein-Zadeh, Gholam-Ali; Soltanian-Zadeh, Hamid

    2008-06-30

    Unknown low frequency fluctuations called "trend" are observed in noisy time-series measured for different applications. In some disciplines, they carry primary information while in other fields such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) they carry nuisance effects. In all cases, however, it is necessary to estimate them accurately. In this paper, a method for estimating trend in the presence of fractal noise is proposed and applied to fMRI time-series. To this end, a partly linear model (PLM) is fitted to each time-series. The parametric and nonparametric parts of PLM are considered as contributions of hemodynamic response and trend, respectively. Using the whitening property of wavelet transform, the unknown components of the model are estimated in the wavelet domain. The results of the proposed method are compared to those of other parametric trend-removal approaches such as spline and polynomial models. It is shown that the proposed method improves activation detection and decreases variance of the estimated parameters relative to the other methods.

  6. The road to success. Long-term prognosis for persons living with HIV in Denmark - time trends and risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lohse, Nicolai

    2016-01-01

    compared temporal trends in quality and quantity of ART introduction in Den-mark and Greenland. Despite similar levels of health worker education and economic resources, ART implementation and mortality decline in Greenland lacked several years behind Denmark. The study reminded us that although economy...... may be a prerequisite for implementing an effective HIV care system, it is certainly not all it takes. The nationwide nature of the Danish HIV Cohort Study also allowed us to study a number of time trends at the population level. Despite what was feared, we found that the prevalence of triple...... positive trends in virological failure and drug-resistance development at the population level, our findings underline the crucial importance of always having an effective treatment option available for the individual patient with drug-resistant virus. As mortality was declining for persons with access...

  7. Infodemiology of status epilepticus: A systematic validation of the Google Trends-based search queries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi; Bacigaluppi, Susanna; Robba, Chiara; Nardone, Raffaele; Trinka, Eugen; Brigo, Francesco

    2016-02-01

    People increasingly use Google looking for health-related information. We previously demonstrated that in English-speaking countries most people use this search engine to obtain information on status epilepticus (SE) definition, types/subtypes, and treatment. Now, we aimed at providing a quantitative analysis of SE-related web queries. This analysis represents an advancement, with respect to what was already previously discussed, in that the Google Trends (GT) algorithm has been further refined and correlational analyses have been carried out to validate the GT-based query volumes. Google Trends-based SE-related query volumes were well correlated with information concerning causes and pharmacological and nonpharmacological treatments. Google Trends can provide both researchers and clinicians with data on realities and contexts that are generally overlooked and underexplored by classic epidemiology. In this way, GT can foster new epidemiological studies in the field and can complement traditional epidemiological tools. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Potential Impact of Time Trend of Life-Style Factors on Cardiovascular Disease Burden in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yanping; Wang, Dong D; Ley, Sylvia H; Howard, Annie Green; He, Yuna; Lu, Yuan; Danaei, Goodarz; Hu, Frank B

    2016-08-23

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death in China. Evaluation of risk factors and their impacts on disease burden is important for future public health initiatives and policy making. The study used data from a cohort of the China Health and Nutrition Survey to estimate time trends in cardiovascular risk factors from 1991 to 2011. We applied the comparative risk assessment method to estimate the number of CVD events attributable to all nonoptimal levels (e.g., theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution [TMRED]) of each risk factor. In 2011, high blood pressure, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high blood glucose were associated with 3.1, 1.4, and 0.9 million CVD events in China, respectively. Increase in body mass index was associated with an increase in attributable CVD events, from 0.5 to 1.1 million between 1991 and 2011, whereas decreased physical activity was associated with a 0.7-million increase in attributable CVD events. In 2011, 53.4% of men used tobacco, estimated to be responsible for 30.1% of CVD burden in men. Dietary quality improved, but remained suboptimal; mean intakes were 5.4 (TMRED: 2.0) g/day for sodium, 67.7 (TMRED: 300.0) g/day for fruits, 6.2 (TMRED: 114.0) g/day for nuts, and 25.0 (TMRED: 250.0) mg/day for marine omega-3 fatty acids in 2011. High blood pressure remains the most important individual risk factor related to CVD burden in China. Increased body mass index and decreased physical activity were also associated with the increase in CVD burden from 1991 to 2011. High rates of tobacco use in men and unhealthy dietary factors continue to contribute to the burden of CVD in China. Copyright © 2016 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Trends into rainfall time series of two andes basins of Valle del Cauca (Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisury Cardona-Guerrero

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the goal of detecting changes or trends in registered data of daily rainfall in the basins of rivers Dagua and Cali, located in the south-west of Colombia, in the Valle del Cauca, nine climate extremes indices were calculated using the RClimDex software. For this, precipitation trends were analyzed in 18 rain gauges located in the study area with historical series ranging between 21 and 56 years. Homogeneity tests were made to data to ensure consistency in the information. The results show changes in rainfall, dominated by the increasing trends for almost all indices; however most of the trends do not show high statistical significance. Also, a significant increase in the average annual total rainfall of 15.2 mm (Dagua river basin and 9.1 mm (Cali river basin in the stations located below 1500 msnm was obtained. Moreover, in the stations located at higher elevations, decreases were observed. There is a homogeneous spatial distribution for the most of the indices and similar patterns were found located in defined areas of the study zone, which may affect the runoff production in watersheds in the coming years.

  10. Contrasting time trends of organic contaminants in Antarctic pelagic and benthic food webs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Brink, Nico W; Riddle, Martin J; van den Heuvel-Greve, Martine; van Franeker, Jan Andries

    2011-01-01

    We demonstrate that pelagic Antarctic seabirds show significant decreases in concentrations of some persistent organic pollutants. Trends in Adélie penguins and Southern fulmars fit in a general pattern revealed by a broad literature review. Downward trends are also visible in pelagic fish, contrasting sharply with steady or increasing concentrations in Antarctic benthic organisms. Transfer of contaminants between Antarctic pelagic and benthic food webs is associated with seasonal sea-ice dynamics which may influence the balance between the final receptors of contaminants under different climatic conditions. This complicates the predictability of future trends of emerging compounds in the Antarctic ecosystem, such as of the brominated compounds that we detected in Antarctic petrels. The discrepancy in trends between pelagic and benthic organisms shows that Antarctic biota are still final receptors of globally released organic contaminants and it remains questionable whether the total environmental burden of contaminants in the Antarctic ecosystem is declining. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Sunshine duration variability and trends in Italy from homogenized instrumental time series (1936-2013)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manara, Veronica; Beltrano, Maria Carmen; Brunetti, Michele; Maugeri, Maurizio; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; Simolo, Claudia; Sorrenti, Simona

    2015-05-01

    A data set of quality checked daily sunshine duration measurements was collected from 104 Italian sites over the 1936 to 2013 period. Monthly mean values were homogenized, projected onto a grid, and subjected to principle component analysis, which identified two significantly different regions: North and South. Sunshine duration temporal evolution is presented, and possible reasons for differences between the two regions are discussed in the light of a comparison with the trends found in observations of total cloud cover and with results from two neighboring regions: the Alps and Spain. In addition, trends for irradiance records, estimated from sunshine duration records using the Ångström-Prescott formula, are presented too. The major feature of the trends, an increase in sunshine duration from the mid-1980s, was common to both northern and southern Italy; the decrease in the preceding 30 year period was not, as northern Italy had a lower rate of decrease than southern Italy. The few records available during the earliest period of the data set indicate that sunshine duration in Italy increased from the mid-1930s to the mid-1950s. The further steps needed to identify and quantify the mechanisms giving rise to the observed trends and to the reported regional differences in dimming and brightening are outlined.

  12. A window-based time series feature extraction method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katircioglu-Öztürk, Deniz; Güvenir, H Altay; Ravens, Ursula; Baykal, Nazife

    2017-10-01

    This study proposes a robust similarity score-based time series feature extraction method that is termed as Window-based Time series Feature ExtraCtion (WTC). Specifically, WTC generates domain-interpretable results and involves significantly low computational complexity thereby rendering itself useful for densely sampled and populated time series datasets. In this study, WTC is applied to a proprietary action potential (AP) time series dataset on human cardiomyocytes and three precordial leads from a publicly available electrocardiogram (ECG) dataset. This is followed by comparing WTC in terms of predictive accuracy and computational complexity with shapelet transform and fast shapelet transform (which constitutes an accelerated variant of the shapelet transform). The results indicate that WTC achieves a slightly higher classification performance with significantly lower execution time when compared to its shapelet-based alternatives. With respect to its interpretable features, WTC has a potential to enable medical experts to explore definitive common trends in novel datasets. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Modeling and Forecasting of Water Demand in Isfahan Using Underlying Trend Concept and Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Sadeghi

    2016-02-01

    costs of water subscribers between 1388 and 1390. In structural time series model, the model was generated by entering the invisibility part of the process and development of a state-space model, as well as using maximum likelihood method and the Kalman-Filter algorithm. Results and Discussion: Given the value of the test statistic ADF, with the exception of changing water use variables with a time difference of the steady rest. Superpopulation different modes of behavior were assessed based on the demand for water. Due to the likelihood ratio statistic is most suitable for the parameters, was diagnosed the steady-state level of randomness and the slope. Price and income elasticities of demand for water, respectively -0.81 and 0.85 shows that water demand is inelastic with respect to price and income and a lot of water is essential. Identify the nature of the request of one of the most important results in estimated water demand in the urban part of the state space time series structure and patterning methods, as an Alternative for variable is Technology preferences use. The model is estimated for the city's water demand time series model, respectively ARMA (3,1. Model performance metrics to compare the structural time series and time series ARMA, the result represents a structural time series model based on the fact that all the performance criteria in this study outperformed the ARMA model to forecast water city demand in the Isfahan. Conclusion: Of a time series model structure to model ARMA in this research is to estimate the model and predict the number the less time is required, and also can be used for modeling of other variables (such as income and price to this is helping to improve the models. Also, in ARMA time series the best model for data was selected according to the Schwarz Bayesian and Akaike criterion. Results indicate that the estimation of water demand using structural time series method is more efficient than when ARMA time series model is applied

  14. Linear time relational prototype based learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gisbrecht, Andrej; Mokbel, Bassam; Schleif, Frank-Michael; Zhu, Xibin; Hammer, Barbara

    2012-10-01

    Prototype based learning offers an intuitive interface to inspect large quantities of electronic data in supervised or unsupervised settings. Recently, many techniques have been extended to data described by general dissimilarities rather than Euclidean vectors, so-called relational data settings. Unlike the Euclidean counterparts, the techniques have quadratic time complexity due to the underlying quadratic dissimilarity matrix. Thus, they are infeasible already for medium sized data sets. The contribution of this article is twofold: On the one hand we propose a novel supervised prototype based classification technique for dissimilarity data based on popular learning vector quantization (LVQ), on the other hand we transfer a linear time approximation technique, the Nyström approximation, to this algorithm and an unsupervised counterpart, the relational generative topographic mapping (GTM). This way, linear time and space methods result. We evaluate the techniques on three examples from the biomedical domain.

  15. Trends of phytoplankton characteristics and their communities in pre- and post-liming time in Lake Orta (1984-1998

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierisa PANZANI

    2001-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper is an assessment of the changing properties of Lake Orta phytoplankton in the period 1984-1998, which includes the large-scale liming carried out in the lake in 1989 and 1990. The phytoplankton is analysed first in its general properties (abundance, biovolume, chlorophyll-a concentration, average cell size, diversity by means of time courses of the mentioned variables based on monthly data through the entire period, and by correlations between the same variables. Moreover, through clustering techniques, the evolution of the species composition has been studied, showing the gradual decrease of chlorophytes after the liming and the noticeable increase of the diatom population, both as biovolume and diversity. Although the assemblage of the dominant species still mirrors the presence of some residual toxic compounds into the lake water, in the most recent period the evolution of the algal populations showed a clear trend towards a species assemblage more similar to those observed in the other deep italian subalpine lakes. After the improving of the chemical environment, the main abiotic factor that in the next years could play a major role in modifying the species assemblage is probably the phosphorus supply, whose in-lake concentration is low, despite the high annual load from the basin. A better understanding of the mechanisms underlying the phosphorus dynamics represent the basis to make reliable hypotheses about the future evolution of the phytoplankton assemblage.

  16. Global Times once Again: Representative Democracy and Countervailing Trends in Iberoamerica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Roniger

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In the late 1990s and early 2000s democratic expectations were replaced by the discredit of democracy. Analyzing this trend, this study looks at the interplay of politics and the economic realm. It discusses the fragility and persistence of democracy and identifies the effect of recent macro-economic policies, the weakening of public goods, processes of dualization in forms of participation in the public domain. It also analyzes contrasting political trends, which involve some innovative projects institutionalizing democratic controls, but also new forms of populism and clientelism buttressed by poverty, unemployment and violence which reinforce the logic of exclusion. Finally, it suggests rethinking the public realm as a focus for the re-creation of sociability and a shared sense of future by improving public performance and efficacy, safeguarding public goods and thus promoting democratic sustainability in Iberoamerica.

  17. Educational inequalities in obesity among Mexican women: time-trends from 1988 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez Ferrer, Carolina; McMunn, Anne; Rivera Dommarco, Juan A; Brunner, Eric J

    2014-01-01

    Obesity is one of the leading causes of global morbidity and mortality. Trends in educational inequalities in obesity prevalence among Mexican women have not been analysed systematically to date. Data came from four nationally representative surveys (1988, 1999, 2006, and 2012) of a total of 51 220 non-pregnant women aged 20 to 49. Weight and height were measured during home visits. Education level (higher education, high school, secondary, primary or less) was self-reported. We analysed trends in relative and absolute educational inequalities in obesity prevalence separately for urban and rural areas. Nationally, age-standardised obesity prevalence increased from 9.3% to 33.7% over 25 years to 2012. Obesity prevalence was inversely associated with education level in urban areas at all survey waves. In rural areas, obesity prevalence increased markedly but there was no gradient with education level at any survey. The relative index of inequality in urban areas declined over the period (2.87 (95%CI: 1.94, 4.25) in 1988, 1.55 (95%CI: 1.33, 1.80) in 2012, trend pwomen with higher education in the period 1988-2012 compared to 3.23 fold (95%CI: 2.88, 3.63) for urban women with primary or no education. The slope index of inequality increased in urban areas from 1988 to 2012. Over 0.5 M cases would be avoided if the obesity prevalence of women with primary or less education was the same as for women with higher education. The expected inverse association between education and obesity was observed in urban areas of Mexico. The declining trend in relative educational inequalities in obesity was due to a greater increase in obesity prevalence among higher educated women. In rural areas there was no social gradient in the association between education level and obesity across the four surveys.

  18. Time dependent policy-based access control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vasilikos, Panagiotis; Nielson, Flemming; Nielson, Hanne Riis

    2017-01-01

    Access control policies are essential to determine who is allowed to access data in a system without compromising the data's security. However, applications inside a distributed environment may require those policies to be dependent on the actual content of the data, the flow of information, while...... also on other attributes of the environment such as the time. In this paper, we use systems of Timed Automata to model distributed systems and we present a logic in which one can express time-dependent policies for access control. We show how a fragment of our logic can be reduced to a logic...... that current model checkers for Timed Automata such as UPPAAL can handle and we present a translator that performs this reduction. We then use our translator and UPPAAL to enforce time-dependent policy-based access control on an example application from the aerospace industry....

  19. National Time Trends in Bullying among Adolescents in the Czech Republic from 1994 to 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarková, Mária; Sigmundová, Dagmar; Kalman, Michal

    2017-07-01

    Bullying in school is a public health concern which continues to be a serious threat to physical and emotional health of children and adolescents. The purpose of this study is to examine trends in bullying behaviour among school-aged children in the Czech Republic. Data were obtained from cross-sectional self-report surveys in the years 1994-2014 as a part of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children study (HBSC) from a representative sample of 11-, 13-, and 15-year olds. The highest proportion of children who bullied others (20-47%) occurred during the years 1994 and 1998. The logistic regression models showed significant decreasing trends in bullying others and also in being bullied, regardless of age and gender. The decreasing trend in bullying may be the consequence of a preventive policy in the Czech Republic, but also a change in the understanding of the concept of bullying in society. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

  20. THE EFFECT OF DECOMPOSITION METHOD AS DATA PREPROCESSING ON NEURAL NETWORKS MODEL FOR FORECASTING TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subanar Subanar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, one of the central topics for the neural networks (NN community is the issue of data preprocessing on the use of NN. In this paper, we will investigate this topic particularly on the effect of Decomposition method as data processing and the use of NN for modeling effectively time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. Limited empirical studies on seasonal time series forecasting with neural networks show that some find neural networks are able to model seasonality directly and prior deseasonalization is not necessary, and others conclude just the opposite. In this research, we study particularly on the effectiveness of data preprocessing, including detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method on NN modeling and forecasting performance. We use two kinds of data, simulation and real data. Simulation data are examined on multiplicative of trend and seasonality patterns. The results are compared to those obtained from the classical time series model. Our result shows that a combination of detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method is the effective data preprocessing on the use of NN for forecasting trend and seasonal time series.

  1. Characterization of Land Transitions Patterns from Multivariate Time Series Using Seasonal Trend Analysis and Principal Component Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benoit Parmentier

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Characterizing biophysical changes in land change areas over large regions with short and noisy multivariate time series and multiple temporal parameters remains a challenging task. Most studies focus on detection rather than the characterization, i.e., the manner by which surface state variables are altered by the process of changes. In this study, a procedure is presented to extract and characterize simultaneous temporal changes in MODIS multivariate times series from three surface state variables the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, land surface temperature (LST and albedo (ALB. The analysis involves conducting a seasonal trend analysis (STA to extract three seasonal shape parameters (Amplitude 0, Amplitude 1 and Amplitude 2 and using principal component analysis (PCA to contrast trends in change and no-change areas. We illustrate the method by characterizing trends in burned and unburned pixels in Alaska over the 2001–2009 time period. Findings show consistent and meaningful extraction of temporal patterns related to fire disturbances. The first principal component (PC1 is characterized by a decrease in mean NDVI (Amplitude 0 with a concurrent increase in albedo (the mean and the annual amplitude and an increase in LST annual variability (Amplitude 1. These results provide systematic empirical evidence of surface changes associated with one type of land change, fire disturbances, and suggest that STA with PCA may be used to characterize many other types of land transitions over large landscape areas using multivariate Earth observation time series.

  2. Prediction Model of Machining Failure Trend Based on Large Data Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jirong

    2017-12-01

    The mechanical processing has high complexity, strong coupling, a lot of control factors in the machining process, it is prone to failure, in order to improve the accuracy of fault detection of large mechanical equipment, research on fault trend prediction requires machining, machining fault trend prediction model based on fault data. The characteristics of data processing using genetic algorithm K mean clustering for machining, machining feature extraction which reflects the correlation dimension of fault, spectrum characteristics analysis of abnormal vibration of complex mechanical parts processing process, the extraction method of the abnormal vibration of complex mechanical parts processing process of multi-component spectral decomposition and empirical mode decomposition Hilbert based on feature extraction and the decomposition results, in order to establish the intelligent expert system for the data base, combined with large data analysis method to realize the machining of the Fault trend prediction. The simulation results show that this method of fault trend prediction of mechanical machining accuracy is better, the fault in the mechanical process accurate judgment ability, it has good application value analysis and fault diagnosis in the machining process.

  3. Complementary feeding patterns in the first year of life in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: time trends from 1998 to 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Alves de Oliveira

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to analyze time trends in complementary feeding practices among children under one year of age in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from 1998 to 2008. Based on comparable questions on food consumption in five surveys conducted in representative randomized samples of children in 1998 (n = 3,762, 2000 (n = 3,670, 2003 (n = 4,305, 2006 (n = 3,686, and 2008 (n = 2,621, 16 complementary feeding indicators were constructed. The percentage frequency of all indicators was estimated for each year of the study. Linear trend analyses were also conducted by means of multivariate regression models. All indicators of early complementary feeding decreased from 1998 to 2008. In the 6-11.9 month age group, there was a significant downward trend in the proportion of children receiving food with adequate consistency for their age, consumption of iron-rich foods, and overall adequacy of the diet. A significant upward trend in fruit consumption was observed. There was a decrease in the early complementary feeding, and generally a worsening of complementary feeding practices in children aged 6-11.9 months in Rio de Janeiro during the period studied.

  4. Trends in consumption-based poverty and inequality in the European Union during the 1980s

    OpenAIRE

    Klaas de Vos; M. Asghar Zaidi

    2001-01-01

    Most recent studies on poverty and inequality in developed countries focus on income. In contrast, this paper presents trends in consumption-based poverty and inequality in nine member countries of the European Union. During the 1980s, both poverty and inequality increased in Italy, France, the United Kingdom, Germany and Belgium, while decreases in both poverty and inequality are observed for Spain and Portugal. In Greece only inequality increased. For most countries for which income-based r...

  5. Satellite Image Time Series Decomposition Based on EEMD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun-long Kong

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Satellite Image Time Series (SITS have recently been of great interest due to the emerging remote sensing capabilities for Earth observation. Trend and seasonal components are two crucial elements of SITS. In this paper, a novel framework of SITS decomposition based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD is proposed. EEMD is achieved by sifting an ensemble of adaptive orthogonal components called Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs. EEMD is noise-assisted and overcomes the drawback of mode mixing in conventional Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD. Inspired by these advantages, the aim of this work is to employ EEMD to decompose SITS into IMFs and to choose relevant IMFs for the separation of seasonal and trend components. In a series of simulations, IMFs extracted by EEMD achieved a clear representation with physical meaning. The experimental results of 16-day compositions of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, and Global Environment Monitoring Index (GEMI time series with disturbance illustrated the effectiveness and stability of the proposed approach to monitoring tasks, such as applications for the detection of abrupt changes.

  6. Geo-mapping of time trends in childhood caries risk a method for assessment of preventive care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Strömberg Ulf

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dental caries is unevenly distributed within populations with a higher burden in low socio-economy groups. Several attempts have been made to allocate resources to those that need them the most; there is a need for convenient approaches to population-based monitoring of caries risk over time. The aim of this study was to develop the geo-map concept, addressing time trends in caries risk, and demonstrate the novel approach by analyzing epidemiological data from preschool residents in the region of Halland, Sweden. Methods The study population consisted of 9,973 (2006 and 10,927 (2010 children between 3 to 6years of age (~77% of the eligible population from whom caries data were obtained. Reported dmfs>0 for a child was considered as the primary caries outcome. Each study individual was geo-coded with respect to his/her residence parish (66 parishes in the region. Smoothed caries risk geo-maps, along with corresponding statistical certainty geo-maps, were produced by using the free software Rapid Inquiry Facility and the ESRI ArcGIS system. Parish-level socioeconomic data were available. Results The overall proportion of caries-free (dmfs=0 children improved from 84.0% in 2006 to 88.6% in 2010. The ratio of maximum and minimum (parish-level smoothed relative risks (SmRRs increased from 1.76/0.44=4.0 in 2006 to 2.37/0.33=7.2 in 2010, which indicated an increased geographical polarization of early childhood caries in the population. Eight parishes showed evidential, positional changes in caries risk between 2006 and 2010; their corresponding SmRRs and statistical certainty ranks changed markedly. No considerable parallel changes in parish-level socioeconomic characteristics were seen during the same time period. Conclusion Geo-maps based on caries risk can be used to monitor changes in caries risk over time. Thus, geo-mapping offers a convenient tool for evaluating the effectiveness of tailored health promotion and preventive

  7. Geo-mapping of time trends in childhood caries risk--a method for assessment of preventive care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strömberg, Ulf; Holmn, Anders; Magnusson, Kerstin; Twetman, Svante

    2012-06-11

    Dental caries is unevenly distributed within populations with a higher burden in low socio-economy groups. Several attempts have been made to allocate resources to those that need them the most; there is a need for convenient approaches to population-based monitoring of caries risk over time. The aim of this study was to develop the geo-map concept, addressing time trends in caries risk, and demonstrate the novel approach by analyzing epidemiological data from preschool residents in the region of Halland, Sweden. The study population consisted of 9,973 (2006) and 10,927 (2010) children between 3 to 6 years of age (~77% of the eligible population) from whom caries data were obtained. Reported dmfs>0 for a child was considered as the primary caries outcome. Each study individual was geo-coded with respect to his/her residence parish (66 parishes in the region). Smoothed caries risk geo-maps, along with corresponding statistical certainty geo-maps, were produced by using the free software Rapid Inquiry Facility and the ESRI® ArcGIS system. Parish-level socioeconomic data were available. The overall proportion of caries-free (dmfs=0) children improved from 84.0% in 2006 to 88.6% in 2010. The ratio of maximum and minimum (parish-level) smoothed relative risks (SmRRs) increased from 1.76/0.44=4.0 in 2006 to 2.37/0.33=7.2 in 2010, which indicated an increased geographical polarization of early childhood caries in the population. Eight parishes showed evidential, positional changes in caries risk between 2006 and 2010; their corresponding SmRRs and statistical certainty ranks changed markedly. No considerable parallel changes in parish-level socioeconomic characteristics were seen during the same time period. Geo-maps based on caries risk can be used to monitor changes in caries risk over time. Thus, geo-mapping offers a convenient tool for evaluating the effectiveness of tailored health promotion and preventive care in child populations.

  8. Autism Prevalence Trends Over Time in Denmark: Changes in Prevalence and Age at Diagnosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parner, Erik; Schendel, Diana; Thorsen, Poul

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of changing age at diagnosis on the diagnosed prevalence of autism among different birth cohorts. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Children were identified in the Danish Medical Birth Registry and psychiatric outcomes were obtained via linkage...... with the Danish National Psychiatric Register. PARTICIPANTS: All children born in Denmark from January 1, 1994, through December 31, 1999 (N = 407 458). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The age-specific prevalence, hazard ratio, and relative risk by age. RESULTS: Statistically significant shifts in age at diagnosis were...... prevalence of autism in young children in the more recent cohorts compared with the oldest cohort. This study supports the argument that the apparent increase in autism in recent years is at least in part attributable to decreases in the age at diagnosis over time....

  9. Time trends in pediatric hospitalizations for varicella infection are associated with climatic changes: a 22-year retrospective study in a tertiary Greek referral center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critselis, Elena; Nastos, Panagiotis T; Theodoridou, Kalliopi; Theodoridou, Maria; Tsolia, Maria N; Hadjichristodoulou, Christos; Papaevangelou, Vassiliki

    2012-01-01

    The transmission rate of air-borne infectious diseases may vary secondary to climate conditions. The study assessed time trends in the seasonality of hospitalized varicella cases in a temperate region in relation to climatic parameters prior to the implementation of universal varicella immunization. A retrospective descriptive study was conducted among all pediatric and adolescent varicella patients (n = 2366) hospitalized at the "Aghia Sophia" Children's Hospital during 1982-2003 in Athens, Greece. Date of infection was computed based on hospital admission date. Seasonal and monthly trends in the epidemiology of varicella infection were assessed with time series analysis (ARIMA modeling procedure). The correlation between the frequency of varicella patients and the meteorological parameters was examined by the application of Generalized Linear Models with Gamma distribution. During 1982-2003, the occurrence of hospitalized varicella cases increased during summer (p = 0.025) and decreased during autumn (p = 0.021), and particularly in September (p = 0.003). The frequency of hospitalized varicella cases was inversely associated with air temperature (p<0.001). In contrast, the occurrence of hospitalized varicella cases was positively associated with wind speed (p = 0.009). Pediatric hospitalizations for varicella infection rates have increased during summer and decreased during autumn in the examined temperate region. Time trends in hospitalized varicella cases are associated with climatic variables.

  10. Trends in use and outcome of postoperative radiotherapy following mastectomy: A population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corradini, Stefanie; Bauerfeind, Ingo; Belka, Claus; Braun, Michael; Combs, Stephanie E; Eckel, Renate; Harbeck, Nadia; Hölzel, Dieter; Kiechle, Marion; Niyazi, Maximilian; Engel, Jutta

    2017-01-01

    The objective of the present population-based study was to evaluate the role and effectiveness of postmastectomy radiation therapy (PMRT) in clinical practice. The study included 16,675 patients diagnosed with invasive breast cancer from 1988 to 2012 and resident within the catchment area of the Munich Cancer Registry. Use of PMRT, local recurrence-free survival (LRFS), cumulative incidence of time to local recurrence, relative survival and conditional overall survival (cOS), were analysed for different time periods (1988-1997 and 1998-2012). Variables favouring the use of PMRT on multivariate logistic regression analysis included young age, large tumour size, positive resection margin and positive nodal status. Over time, a significant increase of PMRT was registered for patients with ⩾4 positive lymph nodes. Moreover, the present findings track a less frequent use of PMRT in elderly patients. After adjusting for age, tumour characteristics and therapies, the Cox regression analysis for LRFS identified PMRT as an independent predictor for improved local control (HR: 2.145; 95% CI: 1.787-2.574, pfollowing mastectomy, compared to 6.5% following PMRT (p=0.0001). Comparable findings were obtained for patients presenting with ⩾4 positive lymph nodes. All effects were smaller or extinct in elderly patients aged ⩾70years. On multivariate analysis for cOS, no significant advantage for PMRT could be detected (HR: 1.084; 95% CI: 0.986-1.191, p=0.095). The present study was useful in providing an overview on trends in the adoption of PMRT over a 25-year period. An increase in the use of PMRT from 1988 to 2012 was observed, especially in high-risk patients with ⩾4 positive lymph nodes. Patients selected for PMRT had an improved local control and an equivalent relative survival compared to patients who had no indication for PMRT. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Visibility Graph Based Time Series Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen, Mutua; Gu, Changgui; Yang, Huijie

    2015-01-01

    Network based time series analysis has made considerable achievements in the recent years. By mapping mono/multivariate time series into networks, one can investigate both it's microscopic and macroscopic behaviors. However, most proposed approaches lead to the construction of static networks consequently providing limited information on evolutionary behaviors. In the present paper we propose a method called visibility graph based time series analysis, in which series segments are mapped to visibility graphs as being descriptions of the corresponding states and the successively occurring states are linked. This procedure converts a time series to a temporal network and at the same time a network of networks. Findings from empirical records for stock markets in USA (S&P500 and Nasdaq) and artificial series generated by means of fractional Gaussian motions show that the method can provide us rich information benefiting short-term and long-term predictions. Theoretically, we propose a method to investigate time series from the viewpoint of network of networks.

  12. Temporal Trends in the Incidence and Natural History of Diverticulitis: A Population-Based Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bharucha, Adil E.; Parthasarathy, Gopanandan; Ditah, Ivo; Fletcher, J. G.; Ewelukwa, Ofor; Pendlimari, Rajesh; Yawn, Barbara P.; Melton, L. Joseph; Schleck, Cathy; Zinsmeister, Alan R.

    2015-01-01

    Background & Aims Data on the incidence and natural history of diverticulitis are largely hospital-based and exclude the majority of diverticulitis patients, who are treated in an outpatient setting for uncomplicated diverticulitis. We assessed temporal trends in the epidemiology of diverticulitis in the general population. Methods Through the Rochester Epidemiology Project we reviewed the records of all individuals with a diagnosis of diverticulitis from 1980–2007 in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Results In 1980–1989 the incidence of diverticulitis was 115/100,000 person-years, which increased to 188/100,000 in 2000–2007 (Pdiverticulitis episodes, 22% and 55% had a recurrence, respectively. This recurrence rate was greater in younger people (hazard ratio [HR] per decade 0.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59–0.66) and women (HR 0.68; 95% CI, 0.58–0.80). Complications were seen in 12%; this rate did not change over time. Recurrent diverticulitis was associated with a decreased risk of complications (Pdiverticulitis was lower in older people (Pdiverticulitis did not change from 1980–2007. Conclusions The incidence of diverticulitis has increased by 50% in 2000–2007 compared to 1990–1999, and more so in younger people. Complications are relatively uncommon. Recurrent diverticulitis is frequent but typically uncomplicated. Younger people with diverticulitis had less severe disease, more recurrence, and better survival. PMID:26416187

  13. Trend Estimation of Blood Glucose Level Fluctuations Based on Data Mining

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masaki Yamaguchi

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available We have fabricated calorie-calculating software that calculates and records the total calorific food intake by choosing a meal menu selected using a computer mouse. The purpose of this software was to simplify data collection throughout a person's normal life, even if they were inexperienced computer operators. Three portable commercial devices have also been prepared a blood glucose monitor, a metabolic rate monitor and a mobile-computer, and linked into the calorie-calculating software. Time-course changes of the blood glucose level, metabolic rate and food intake were measured using these devices during a 3 month period. Based on the data collected in this study we could predict blood glucose levels of the next morning (FBG by modeling using data mining. Although a large error rate was found for predicting the absolute value, conditions could be found that improved the accuracy of the predicting trends in blood glucose level fluctuations by up to 90 %. However, in order to further improve the accuracy of estimation it was necessary to obtain further details about the patients' life style or to optimise the input variables that were dependent on each patient rather than collecting data over longer periods.

  14. Temporal Trends in the Incidence and Natural History of Diverticulitis: A Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bharucha, Adil E; Parthasarathy, Gopanandan; Ditah, Ivo; Fletcher, J G; Ewelukwa, Ofor; Pendlimari, Rajesh; Yawn, Barbara P; Melton, L Joseph; Schleck, Cathy; Zinsmeister, Alan R

    2015-11-01

    Data on the incidence and natural history of diverticulitis are largely hospital-based and exclude the majority of diverticulitis patients, who are treated in an outpatient setting for uncomplicated diverticulitis. We assessed temporal trends in the epidemiology of diverticulitis in the general population. Through the Rochester Epidemiology Project we reviewed the records of all individuals with a diagnosis of diverticulitis from 1980 to 2007 in Olmsted County, Minnesota, USA. In 1980-1989, the incidence of diverticulitis was 115/100,000 person-years, which increased to 188/100,000 in 2000-2007 (Pdiverticulitis episodes, 22% and 55% had a recurrence, respectively. This recurrence rate was greater in younger people (hazard ratio (HR) per decade 0.63; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.59-0.66) and women (HR 0.68; 95% CI, 0.58-0.80). Complications were seen in 12%; this rate did not change over time. Recurrent diverticulitis was associated with a decreased risk of complications (Pdiverticulitis was lower in older people (Pdiverticulitis did not change from 1980 to 2007. The incidence of diverticulitis has increased by 50% in 2000-2007 compared with 1990-1999, and more so in younger people. Complications are relatively uncommon. Recurrent diverticulitis is frequent but typically uncomplicated. Younger people with diverticulitis have less severe disease, more recurrence, and better survival.

  15. Refining the cheatgrass-fire cycle in the Great Basin: Precipitation timing and fine fuel composition predict wildfire trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilliod, David S; Welty, Justin L; Arkle, Robert S

    2017-10-01

    Larger, more frequent wildfires in arid and semi-arid ecosystems have been associated with invasion by non-native annual grasses, yet a complete understanding of fine fuel development and subsequent wildfire trends is lacking. We investigated the complex relationships among weather, fine fuels, and fire in the Great Basin, USA. We first modeled the annual and time-lagged effects of precipitation and temperature on herbaceous vegetation cover and litter accumulation over a 26-year period in the northern Great Basin. We then modeled how these fine fuels and weather patterns influence subsequent wildfires. We found that cheatgrass cover increased in years with higher precipitation and especially when one of the previous 3 years also was particularly wet. Cover of non-native forbs and native herbs also increased in wet years, but only after several dry years. The area burned by wildfire in a given year was mostly associated with native herb and non-native forb cover, whereas cheatgrass mainly influenced area burned in the form of litter derived from previous years' growth. Consequently, multiyear weather patterns, including precipitation in the previous 1-3 years, was a strong predictor of wildfire in a given year because of the time needed to develop these fine fuel loads. The strong relationship between precipitation and wildfire allowed us to expand our inference to 10,162 wildfires across the entire Great Basin over a 35-year period from 1980 to 2014. Our results suggest that the region's precipitation pattern of consecutive wet years followed by consecutive dry years results in a cycle of fuel accumulation followed by weather conditions that increase the probability of wildfire events in the year when the cycle transitions from wet to dry. These patterns varied regionally but were strong enough to allow us to model annual wildfire risk across the Great Basin based on precipitation alone.

  16. Trends in disability of instrumental activities of daily living among older Chinese adults, 1997-2006: population based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yajun; Welmer, Anna-Karin; Möller, Jette; Qiu, Chengxuan

    2017-08-28

    Data on trends for disability in instrumental activity of daily living (IADL) are sparse in older Chinese adults. To assess trends in prevalence and incidence of IADL disability among older Chinese adults and to explore contributing factors. Population based study. 15 provinces and municipalities in China. Participants (age ≥60) were from four waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey, conducted in 1997 (n=1533), 2000 (n=1581), 2004 (n=2028) and 2006 (n=2256), and from two cohorts constructed within the national survey: cohort 1997-2004 (n=712) and cohort 2000-2006 (n=823). IADL disability was defined as inability to perform one or more of the following: shopping, cooking, using transportation, financing and telephoning. Data were analysed with logistic regression and generalised estimating equation models. The prevalence of IADL disability significantly decreased from 1997 to 2006 in the total sample and in all of the subgroups by age, sex, living region and IADL items (all p trend 0.10). The recovery rate from IADL disability significantly increased over time in those aged 60-69 years (p=0.03). Living in a rural area or access to local clinics for healthcare was less disabling over time (p trend <0.02). The prevalence of IADL disability decreased among older Chinese adults during 1997-2006, whereas the incidence remained stable. The declining prevalence of IADL disability might be partly due to the decreased duration of IADL disability, and to improvements in living conditions and healthcare facilities over time. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  17. Seroprevalence of infectious markers & their trends in blood donors in a hospital based blood bank in north india

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makroo, R.N.; Hegde, Vikas; Chowdhry, Mohit; Bhatia, Aakanksha; Rosamma, N.L.

    2015-01-01

    Background & objectives: Hepatitis B virus (HBV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis C virus (HCV) and syphilis infections pose a great threat to blood safety. This study was undertaken to investigate the seroprevalence of serologic markers for transfusion transmitted infections (TTIs) among blood donors at a hospital based blood centre in north India over a period of nine years. Methods: The results of serologic markers for TTIs (HBsAg, anti-HCV, anti-HIV and syphilis) of all blood donations (both voluntary and replacement) at our hospital from January 2005 to December 2013 were screened. Additional analysis was conducted to examine the prevalence trends associated with each of the positive marker. Results: The data of 180,477 donors [173,019 (95.86%) males and 7,458 (4.13%) females] were analyzed. Replacement donations [174,939 (96.93%)] represented the majority whereas, only 5,538 (3.06%) donations were from the voluntary donors. The risk of blood being reactive was three times higher in male donors when compared with the female donors. The risk of blood being reactive for one or more infectious markers was 2.1 times higher in replacement donors when compared with the voluntary donors. Seropositivity of HIV, HBsAg, HBcAb, syphilis showed a significant decreasing trend (P<0.05) while there was an increasing trend in HCV infection which was insignificant. Interpretation & conclusions: This study reflects that the risk of TTIs has been decreased over time with respect to HIV, HBV and syphilis, but the trends for HCV remains almost the same in blood donors. Blood transfusion remains a risk factor for the spread of blood-borne infections. Therefore, improvements are needed to strengthen both safety and availability of blood. PMID:26458348

  18. Seroprevalence of infectious markers & their trends in blood donors in a hospital based blood bank in north India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R N Makroo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background & objectives: Hepatitis B virus (HBV, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV, hepatitis C virus (HCV and syphilis infections pose a great threat to blood safety. This study was undertaken to investigate the seroprevalence of serologic markers for transfusion transmitted infections (TTIs among blood donors at a hospital based blood centre in north India over a period of nine years. Methods: The results of serologic markers for TTIs (HBsAg, anti-HCV, anti-HIV and syphilis of all blood donations (both voluntary and replacement at our hospital from January 2005 to December 2013 were screened. Additional analysis was conducted to examine the prevalence trends associated with each of the positive marker. Results: The data of 180,477 donors [173,019 (95.86% males and 7,458 (4.13% females] were analyzed. Replacement donations [174,939 (96.93%] represented the majority whereas, only 5,538 (3.06% donations were from the voluntary donors. The risk of blood being reactive was three times higher in male donors when compared with the female donors. The risk of blood being reactive for one or more infectious markers was 2.1 times higher in replacement donors when compared with the voluntary donors. Seropositivity of HIV, HBsAg, HBcAb, syphilis showed a significant decreasing trend (P<0.05 while there was an increasing trend in HCV infection which was insignificant. Interpretation & conclusions: This study reflects that the risk of TTIs has been decreased over time with respect to HIV, HBV and syphilis, but the trends for HCV remains almost the same in blood donors. Blood transfusion remains a risk factor for the spread of blood-borne infections. Therefore, improvements are needed to strengthen both safety and availability of blood.

  19. PREVALENCE OF CHILD MARRIAGE AMONG BANGLADESHI WOMEN AND TREND OF CHANGE OVER TIME.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Md Golam; Mahumud, Rashidul Alam; Saw, Aik

    2016-08-01

    Many Bangladeshi women marry early, and many marry before the legal age of 18 years. This practice has been associated with a higher risk of health and medical morbidities, and also early pregnancy with higher pre- and postnatal complications. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence, and factors associated with, child marriage among Bangladeshi women using multiple binary logistic regression analysis of data from the BDHS-2011. Further analysis on the trend of age at first marriage was performed with additional data sets from previous surveys. The mean and median of ages at first marriage of Bangladeshi women in 2011 were 15.69±2.97 and 15.00 years, respectively. A remarkably high percentage (78.2%) married before the age of 18; of these, 5.5% married at a very early age (before 13 years of age). Binary logistic regression analysis demonstrated that uneducated women were more likely to be married early (pChild marriage was especially pronounced among women with uneducated husbands, Muslims, those with poor economic backgrounds and those living in rural areas. Further analysis including data from previous BDHS surveys showed that child marriage among Bangladeshi women had a decreasing trend from 1993-94 to 2011. These results show that child marriage was very common in Bangladesh, and closely associated with low level of education and low economic status. The decreasing trend in child marriage indicates an improvement over the past two decades but more effort is needed to further reduce and eventually eliminate the practice.

  20. Using Bayesian networks and rule-based trending to predict patient status in the intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crump, Cindy; Saxena, Sunil; Wilson, Bruce; Farrell, Patrick; Rafiq, Azhar; Silvers, Christine Tsien

    2009-11-14

    Multivariate Bayesian models trained with machine learning, in conjunction with rule-based time-series statistical techniques, are explored for the purpose of improving patient monitoring. Three vital sign data streams and known outcomes for 36 intensive care unit (ICU) patients were captured retrospectively and used to train a set of Bayesian net models and to construct time-series models. Models were validated on a reserved dataset from 16 additional patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated. Area under the curve (AUC) was 91% for predicting improving outcome. The model's AUC for predicting declining outcome increased from 70% to 85% when the model was indexed to personalized baselines for each patient. The rule-based trending and alerting system was accurate 100% of the time in alerting a subsequent decline in condition. These techniques promise to improve the monitoring of ICU patients with high-sensitivity alerts, fewer false alarms, and earlier intervention.

  1. A fast estimation of shock wave pressure based on trend identification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Zhenjian; Wang, Zhongyu; Wang, Chenchen; Lv, Jing

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, a fast method based on trend identification is proposed to accurately estimate the shock wave pressure in a dynamic measurement. Firstly, the collected output signal of the pressure sensor is reconstructed by discrete cosine transform (DCT) to reduce the computational complexity for the subsequent steps. Secondly, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is applied to decompose the reconstructed signal into several components with different frequency-bands, and the last few low-frequency components are chosen to recover the trend of the reconstructed signal. In the meantime, the optimal component number is determined based on the correlation coefficient and the normalized Euclidean distance between the trend and the reconstructed signal. Thirdly, with the areas under the gradient curve of the trend signal, the stable interval that produces the minimum can be easily identified. As a result, the stable value of the output signal is achieved in this interval. Finally, the shock wave pressure can be estimated according to the stable value of the output signal and the sensitivity of the sensor in the dynamic measurement. A series of shock wave pressure measurements are carried out with a shock tube system to validate the performance of this method. The experimental results show that the proposed method works well in shock wave pressure estimation. Furthermore, comparative experiments also demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method over the existing approaches in both estimation accuracy and computational efficiency.

  2. Current trends in virtual high throughput screening using ligand-based and structure-based methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukumar, Nagamani; Das, Sourav

    2011-12-01

    High throughput in silico methods have offered the tantalizing potential to drastically accelerate the drug discovery process. Yet despite significant efforts expended by academia, national labs and industry over the years, many of these methods have not lived up to their initial promise of reducing the time and costs associated with the drug discovery enterprise, a process that can typically take over a decade and cost hundreds of millions of dollars from conception to final approval and marketing of a drug. Nevertheless structure-based modeling has become a mainstay of computational biology and medicinal chemistry, helping to leverage our knowledge of the biological target and the chemistry of protein-ligand interactions. While ligand-based methods utilize the chemistry of molecules that are known to bind to the biological target, structure-based drug design methods rely on knowledge of the three-dimensional structure of the target, as obtained through crystallographic, spectroscopic or bioinformatics techniques. Here we review recent developments in the methodology and applications of structure-based and ligand-based methods and target-based chemogenomics in Virtual High Throughput Screening (VHTS), highlighting some case studies of recent applications, as well as current research in further development of these methods. The limitations of these approaches will also be discussed, to give the reader an indication of what might be expected in years to come.

  3. The impact of area-based initiatives on physical activity trends in deprived areas; a quasi-experimental evaluation of the Dutch District Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Daniëlle; Droomers, Mariël; Jongeneel-Grimen, Birthe; Wingen, Marleen; Stronks, Karien; Kunst, Anton E

    2014-03-11

    Numerous area-based initiatives (ABIs) have been implemented in deprived neighbourhoods across Europe. These large-scale initiatives aim to tackle the socio-economic and environmental problems in these areas that might influence physical activity (PA). There is little robust evidence of their impact on PA. This study aimed to assess the impact of a Dutch ABI called the District Approach on trends in leisure-time PA in deprived districts. Repeated cross-sectional data on 48401 adults across the Netherlands were obtained from the Integrated Survey on Household Living Conditions (POLS) 2004-2011. 1517 of these adults resided in deprived target districts and 46884 adults resided elsewhere in the Netherlands. In a quasi-experimental interrupted time-series design, multilevel logistic regression analyses were performed to assess trends in leisure-time walking, cycling, and sports before and during the intervention. Trends in deprived target districts were compared with trends in various control groups. The role of the intensity of environmental interventions was also assessed. Deprived target districts showed a significantly positive change in walking trend between the pre-intervention and intervention period. The trend change in the deprived target districts was significantly larger compared to the rest of the Netherlands, but not compared to other deprived districts. For cycling and sports, neither deprived districts nor control districts showed a significant trend change. For all leisure-time PA outcomes, trend changes were not related to the intensity of environmental interventions in the deprived target districts. Some evidence was found to suggest that ABIs like the District Approach have a positive impact on leisure-time PA in deprived districts, regardless of the intensity of environmental interventions.

  4. Time trends in avoidable cancer mortality in Switzerland and neighbouring European countries 1996-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feller, Anita; Mark, Michael Thomas; Steiner, Annik; Clough-Gorr, Kerri M

    2015-01-01

    What are the trends in avoidable cancer mortality in Switzerland and neighbouring countries? Mortality data and population estimates 1996-2010 were obtained from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office for Switzerland and the World Health Organization Mortality Database (http://www.who.int/healthinfo/mortality_data/en/) for Austria, Germany, France and Italy. Age standardised mortality rates (ASMRs, European standard) per 100 000 person-years were calculated for the population Switzerland and neighbouring countries cancer mortality in persons Switzerland from 16.2 to 20.3 per 100 000 person years, EAPC 2.0 [95% CI 1.4 to 2.6]). Compared with its neighbouring countries, Switzerland showed the lowest rates for all groups of avoidable cancer mortality in males 2008-2010. Overall avoidable cancer mortality decreased, indicating achievements in cancer care and related health policies. However, increasing trends in avoidable cancer mortality through primary prevention for females suggest there is a need in Switzerland and its European neighbouring countries to improve primary prevention.

  5. Time-driven activity-based costing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Robert S; Anderson, Steven R

    2004-11-01

    In the classroom, activity-based costing (ABC) looks like a great way to manage a company's limited resources. But executives who have tried to implement ABC in their organizations on any significant scale have often abandoned the attempt in the face of rising costs and employee irritation. They should try again, because a new approach sidesteps the difficulties associated with large-scale ABC implementation. In the revised model, managers estimate the resource demands imposed by each transaction, product, or customer, rather than relying on time-consuming and costly employee surveys. This method is simpler since it requires, for each group of resources, estimates of only two parameters: how much it costs per time unit to supply resources to the business's activities (the total overhead expenditure of a department divided by the total number of minutes of employee time available) and how much time it takes to carry out one unit of each kind of activity (as estimated or observed by the manager). This approach also overcomes a serious technical problem associated with employee surveys: the fact that, when asked to estimate time spent on activities, employees invariably report percentages that add up to 100. Under the new system, managers take into account time that is idle or unused. Armed with the data, managers then construct time equations, a new feature that enables the model to reflect the complexity of real-world operations by showing how specific order, customer, and activity characteristics cause processing times to vary. This Tool Kit uses concrete examples to demonstrate how managers can obtain meaningful cost and profitability information, quickly and inexpensively. Rather than endlessly updating and maintaining ABC data,they can now spend their time addressing the deficiencies the model reveals: inefficient processes, unprofitable products and customers, and excess capacity.

  6. Trends over time in tree and seedling phylogenetic diversity indicate regional differences in forest biodiversity change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Kevin M; Woodall, Christopher W

    2012-03-01

    Changing climate conditions may impact the short-term ability of forest tree species to regenerate in many locations. In the longer term, tree species may be unable to persist in some locations while they become established in new places. Over both time frames, forest tree biodiversity may change in unexpected ways. Using repeated inventory measurements five years apart from more than 7000 forested plots in the eastern United States, we tested three hypotheses: phylogenetic diversity is substantially different from species richness as a measure of biodiversity; forest communities have undergone recent changes in phylogenetic diversity that differ by size class, region, and seed dispersal strategy; and these patterns are consistent with expected early effects of climate change. Specifically, the magnitude of diversity change across broad regions should be greater among seedlings than in trees, should be associated with latitude and elevation, and should be greater among species with high dispersal capacity. Our analyses demonstrated that phylogenetic diversity and species richness are decoupled at small and medium scales and are imperfectly associated at large scales. This suggests that it is appropriate to apply indicators of biodiversity change based on phylogenetic diversity, which account for evolutionary relationships among species and may better represent community functional diversity. Our results also detected broadscale patterns of forest biodiversity change that are consistent with expected early effects of climate change. First, the statistically significant increase over time in seedling diversity in the South suggests that conditions there have become more favorable for the reproduction and dispersal of a wider variety of species, whereas the significant decrease in northern seedling diversity indicates that northern conditions have become less favorable. Second, we found weak correlations between seedling diversity change and latitude in both zones

  7. Using a time-series statistical framework to quantify trends and abrupt change in US corn, soybean, and wheat yields from 1970-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J.; Ives, A. R.; Turner, M. G.; Kucharik, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    Previous studies have identified global agricultural regions where "stagnation" of long-term crop yield increases has occurred. These studies have used a variety of simple statistical methods that often ignore important aspects of time series regression modeling. These methods can lead to differing and contradictory results, which creates uncertainty regarding food security given rapid global population growth. Here, we present a new statistical framework incorporating time series-based algorithms into standard regression models to quantify spatiotemporal yield trends of US maize, soybean, and winter wheat from 1970-2016. Our primary goal was to quantify spatial differences in yield trends for these three crops using USDA county level data. This information was used to identify regions experiencing the largest changes in the rate of yield increases over time, and to determine whether abrupt shifts in the rate of yield increases have occurred. Although crop yields continue to increase in most maize-, soybean-, and winter wheat-growing areas, yield increases have stagnated in some key agricultural regions during the most recent 15 to 16 years: some maize-growing areas, except for the northern Great Plains, have shown a significant trend towards smaller annual yield increases for maize; soybean has maintained an consistent long-term yield gains in the Northern Great Plains, the Midwest, and southeast US, but has experienced a shift to smaller annual increases in other regions; winter wheat maintained a moderate annual increase in eastern South Dakota and eastern US locations, but showed a decline in the magnitude of annual increases across the central Great Plains and western US regions. Our results suggest that there were abrupt shifts in the rate of annual yield increases in a variety of US regions among the three crops. The framework presented here can be broadly applied to additional yield trend analyses for different crops and regions of the Earth.

  8. Radiosonde-based trends in precipitable water over the Northern Hemisphere: An update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durre, Imke; Williams, Claude N.; Yin, Xungang; Vose, Russell S.

    2009-03-01

    In an effort to update previous analyses of long-term changes in column-integrated water vapor, we have analyzed trends in surface-to-500-hPa precipitable water (PW) calculated from radiosonde measurements of dew point depression, temperature, and pressure at approximately 300 stations in the Northern Hemisphere for the period 1973-2006. Inhomogeneities were addressed by applying a homogenization algorithm that adjusts for both documented and undocumented change points. The trends of the adjusted PW time series are predominantly upward, with a statistically significant trend of 0.45 mm decade-1 for the Northern Hemisphere land areas included in the analysis. Particularly significant increases are found in all seasons over the islands of the western tropical Pacific, and trends are also positive and statistically significant for the year as a whole and in at least one season in Japan and the United States. These results indicate that the widespread increases in tropospheric water vapor, which earlier studies had reported and shown to be physically consistent with concurrent increases in temperature and changes in moisture transport, have continued in recent years.

  9. Energy contribution to Latin American INDCs: Analyzing sub-regional trends with a TIMES model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Postic, Sebastien; Selosse, Sandrine; Maïzi, Nadia

    2017-01-01

    Central and South America and the Caribbean countries share energy and climate features that are quite different from the rest of the world, including a highly renewable energy mix and very high renewable energy potentials, along with high deforestation and degradation rates which call for regional answers to regional issues. This paper assesses the impact of national contributions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change using an energy prospective model from the MarkAl/TIMES family. This approach enables a bottom-up comparison between past pledges (Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions) and the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) agreed on at COP21. Long-term economic optimization leads to decarbonizing the power sector even in the absence of climate constraints. Stringent climate policies as modeled here achieve emission reductions of 40% below the current baseline by 2050. NDCs produce stronger emission reductions than NAMAs at regional scale; however, the first contributor to emission reductions in absolute terms in Latin America is the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-Use (AFOLU) sector, not energy. - Highlights: • We analyze energy-bound climate mitigation in Latin America with a bottom-up model. • We derive five policy scenarios based on past and current pledges to the UNFCCC. • Despite a clean BAU power mix, the region can cut emissions by up to 40% by 2050. • INDCs lead to stronger emission reductions than former NAMAs. • Energy-only measures would overlook significant abatement potential in AFOLU.

  10. Evaluation of Internet-based dengue query data: Google Dengue Trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Tave Gluskin

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Dengue is a common and growing problem worldwide, with an estimated 70-140 million cases per year. Traditional, healthcare-based, government-implemented dengue surveillance is resource intensive and slow. As global Internet use has increased, novel, Internet-based disease monitoring tools have emerged. Google Dengue Trends (GDT uses near real-time search query data to create an index of dengue incidence that is a linear proxy for traditional surveillance. Studies have shown that GDT correlates highly with dengue incidence in multiple countries on a large spatial scale. This study addresses the heterogeneity of GDT at smaller spatial scales, assessing its accuracy at the state-level in Mexico and identifying factors that are associated with its accuracy. We used Pearson correlation to estimate the association between GDT and traditional dengue surveillance data for Mexico at the national level and for 17 Mexican states. Nationally, GDT captured approximately 83% of the variability in reported cases over the 9 study years. The correlation between GDT and reported cases varied from state to state, capturing anywhere from 1% of the variability in Baja California to 88% in Chiapas, with higher accuracy in states with higher dengue average annual incidence. A model including annual average maximum temperature, precipitation, and their interaction accounted for 81% of the variability in GDT accuracy between states. This climate model was the best indicator of GDT accuracy, suggesting that GDT works best in areas with intense transmission, particularly where local climate is well suited for transmission. Internet accessibility (average ∼ 36% did not appear to affect GDT accuracy. While GDT seems to be a less robust indicator of local transmission in areas of low incidence and unfavorable climate, it may indicate cases among travelers in those areas. Identifying the strengths and limitations of novel surveillance is critical for these types of data to

  11. Evaluation of Internet-based dengue query data: Google Dengue Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gluskin, Rebecca Tave; Johansson, Michael A; Santillana, Mauricio; Brownstein, John S

    2014-02-01

    Dengue is a common and growing problem worldwide, with an estimated 70-140 million cases per year. Traditional, healthcare-based, government-implemented dengue surveillance is resource intensive and slow. As global Internet use has increased, novel, Internet-based disease monitoring tools have emerged. Google Dengue Trends (GDT) uses near real-time search query data to create an index of dengue incidence that is a linear proxy for traditional surveillance. Studies have shown that GDT correlates highly with dengue incidence in multiple countries on a large spatial scale. This study addresses the heterogeneity of GDT at smaller spatial scales, assessing its accuracy at the state-level in Mexico and identifying factors that are associated with its accuracy. We used Pearson correlation to estimate the association between GDT and traditional dengue surveillance data for Mexico at the national level and for 17 Mexican states. Nationally, GDT captured approximately 83% of the variability in reported cases over the 9 study years. The correlation between GDT and reported cases varied from state to state, capturing anywhere from 1% of the variability in Baja California to 88% in Chiapas, with higher accuracy in states with higher dengue average annual incidence. A model including annual average maximum temperature, precipitation, and their interaction accounted for 81% of the variability in GDT accuracy between states. This climate model was the best indicator of GDT accuracy, suggesting that GDT works best in areas with intense transmission, particularly where local climate is well suited for transmission. Internet accessibility (average ∼ 36%) did not appear to affect GDT accuracy. While GDT seems to be a less robust indicator of local transmission in areas of low incidence and unfavorable climate, it may indicate cases among travelers in those areas. Identifying the strengths and limitations of novel surveillance is critical for these types of data to be used to make

  12. Contemporary Trends of Reported Sepsis Among Maternal Decedents in Texas: A Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oud, Lavi

    2015-09-01

    Recent studies indicate that death certificate-based single-cause-of-death diagnoses can substantially underestimate the contribution of sepsis to mortality in the general population and among maternal decedents. There are no population-based data in the United States on the patterns of the contribution of sepsis to pregnancy-associated deaths. We studied the Texas Inpatient Public Use Data File to identify pregnancy-associated hospitalizations with reported hospital death during 2001-2010. We then examined the annual reporting of sepsis, and that of other reported most common causes of maternal death, including hemorrhage, embolism, preeclampsia/eclampsia, cardiovascular conditions, cardiomyopathy, cerebrovascular accidents, and anesthesia complications. The annual rate of sepsis among decedents, its trend over time, and changes of its annual rank among other examined potential causes of maternal death were assessed. There were 557 pregnancy-associated hospital deaths during study period. Sepsis was reported in 131 (23.5%) decedents. Sepsis has been increasingly reported among decedents, rising by 9.1%/year (P = 0.0025). The rank of sepsis, as compared to the other examined potential causes of maternal death rose from the 5th in 2001 to 1st since 2008. At the end of the last decade, sepsis has been reported in 28.1% of pregnancy-associated deaths. More than one potential cause of maternal death was reported in 39% of decedents. Sepsis has become the most commonly reported potential cause of death among maternal decedents in the present cohort, noted in over 1 in 4 fatal hospitalizations by the end of the last decade. Although causality cannot be inferred from administrative data, given its known contribution to maternal death, it is likely that sepsis plays an increasing role in fatal maternal hospital outcomes. The prevalent co-reporting of multiple potential causes of maternal death in the present cohort underscores the complexity of determining the sources of

  13. Time-frequency representation based on time-varying ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    defined in a time-frequency space and represents the evolution of signal power as a function of both time and ... the physical meaning of the intrinsic mode function (IMF) resulting from the EMD sifting process and the ... In the case of the basis function approach, each of its time-varying coefficients is expressed as a weighted ...

  14. Time Trends in Fast Food Consumption and Its Association with Obesity among Children in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Xue

    Full Text Available Study the trends in Western fast food consumption (FFC among Chinese school-age children and the association between FFC and obesity using nationwide survey data.Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted to study the trends in FFC and the associations between FFC and weight status (overweight, obesity and body mass index (BMI z-score.Longitudinal data from families were collected in the 2004 and 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (covering nine provinces throughout China.The analysis included 2656 Chinese children aged 6 to 18 years (1542 and 1114 children in the 2004 and 2009 survey, respectively.FFC (reported having consumed Western fast food in the past three months has increased between 2004 and 2009, from 18.5% to 23.9% in those aged 6-18, and increased more rapidly among those aged 13-17, from 17.9% to 26.3%. The increase was significant in almost all groups by age, sex, family income, and residence. Our cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses did not detect a significant association between FFC and obesity/overweight or BMI z-score (e.g., for BMI z-score, boys: β = 0.02, 95% CI: -0.71, 0.75; girls: β = -0.14, 95% CI: -1.03, 0.75.FFC has increased in Chinese school-age children, especially in older children, boys, and those from low- and medium-income families, rural areas, and East China, but decreased among those from high-income families during 2004-2009. The data did not show a significant association between FFC and obesity.

  15. Time Trends in Fast Food Consumption and Its Association with Obesity among Children in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Hong; Wu, Yang; Wang, Xiaoyu; Wang, Youfa

    2016-01-01

    Study the trends in Western fast food consumption (FFC) among Chinese school-age children and the association between FFC and obesity using nationwide survey data. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted to study the trends in FFC and the associations between FFC and weight status (overweight, obesity and body mass index (BMI) z-score). Longitudinal data from families were collected in the 2004 and 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (covering nine provinces throughout China). The analysis included 2656 Chinese children aged 6 to 18 years (1542 and 1114 children in the 2004 and 2009 survey, respectively). FFC (reported having consumed Western fast food in the past three months) has increased between 2004 and 2009, from 18.5% to 23.9% in those aged 6-18, and increased more rapidly among those aged 13-17, from 17.9% to 26.3%. The increase was significant in almost all groups by age, sex, family income, and residence. Our cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses did not detect a significant association between FFC and obesity/overweight or BMI z-score (e.g., for BMI z-score, boys: β = 0.02, 95% CI: -0.71, 0.75; girls: β = -0.14, 95% CI: -1.03, 0.75). FFC has increased in Chinese school-age children, especially in older children, boys, and those from low- and medium-income families, rural areas, and East China, but decreased among those from high-income families during 2004-2009. The data did not show a significant association between FFC and obesity.

  16. Time Trends in Fast Food Consumption and Its Association with Obesity among Children in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaoyu; Wang, Youfa

    2016-01-01

    Objective Study the trends in Western fast food consumption (FFC) among Chinese school-age children and the association between FFC and obesity using nationwide survey data. Design Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted to study the trends in FFC and the associations between FFC and weight status (overweight, obesity and body mass index (BMI) z-score). Setting Longitudinal data from families were collected in the 2004 and 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (covering nine provinces throughout China). Subjects The analysis included 2656 Chinese children aged 6 to 18 years (1542 and 1114 children in the 2004 and 2009 survey, respectively). Results FFC (reported having consumed Western fast food in the past three months) has increased between 2004 and 2009, from 18.5% to 23.9% in those aged 6–18, and increased more rapidly among those aged 13–17, from 17.9% to 26.3%. The increase was significant in almost all groups by age, sex, family income, and residence. Our cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses did not detect a significant association between FFC and obesity/overweight or BMI z-score (e.g., for BMI z-score, boys: β = 0.02, 95% CI: -0.71, 0.75; girls: β = -0.14, 95% CI: -1.03, 0.75). Conclusions FFC has increased in Chinese school-age children, especially in older children, boys, and those from low- and medium-income families, rural areas, and East China, but decreased among those from high-income families during 2004–2009. The data did not show a significant association between FFC and obesity. PMID:26974536

  17. A comparison of heat wave climatologies and trends in China based on multiple definitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Qinglong; Jiang, Zhihong; Kong, Lei; Wu, Zhiwei; Bao, Yutao; Kang, Shichang; Pepin, Nick

    2017-06-01

    Heat waves (HWs) can have disastrous impacts on human activities and natural systems, and are one of the current foci of scientific research, particularly in the context of global warming. However, there is no standard definition of a HW, which makes assessment of temporal trends a challenge. In this study, based on daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature, and relative humidity datasets from China Meteorological Administration, the patterns, trends and variations of HW in China during 1961-2014 are investigated. Sixteen previously published HW indices (HIs) are calculated, which are divided into two types using relative and absolute threshold temperatures, respectively. During 1961-2014, both relative and absolute threshold HIs show the highest number of HW in Jianghua and South China, geographically consistent with the climate characteristics of China. The majority of HIs shows negative/positive trends of HW days before/after 1990 over the whole of China, but especially in Jianghua and South China, which reflects rapid warming since 1990. There are significant correlations among different HIs in the same type (both absolute and relative), but correlations are weak between relative and absolute threshold HIs. Because relative and absolute HIs show contrasting trends, the choice of HI is therefore critical for future analysis

  18. Emerging medical informatics research trends detection based on MeSH terms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyu, Peng-Hui; Yao, Qiang; Mao, Jin; Zhang, Shi-Jing

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study is to analyze the research trends of medical informatics over the last 12 years. A new method based on MeSH terms was proposed to identify emerging topics and trends of medical informatics research. Informetric methods and visualization technologies were applied to investigate research trends of medical informatics. The metric of perspective factor (PF) embedding MeSH terms was appropriately employed to assess the perspective quality for journals. The emerging MeSH terms have changed dramatically over the last 12 years, identifying two stages of medical informatics: the "medical imaging stage" and the "medical informatics stage". The focus of medical informatics has shifted from acquisition and storage of healthcare data by integrating computational, informational, cognitive and organizational sciences to semantic analysis for problem solving and clinical decision-making. About 30 core journals were determined by Bradford's Law in the last 3 years in this area. These journals, with high PF values, have relative high perspective quality and lead the trend of medical informatics.

  19. Report on RecSys 2016 Workshop on New Trends in Content-Based Recommender Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bogers, Toine; Koolen, Marijn; Musto, Cataldo

    2017-01-01

    This article reports on the CBRecSys 2016 workshop, the third edition of the workshop on New Trends in Content-based Recommender Systems, co-located with RecSys 2016 in Boston, MA. Content-based recommendation has been applied successfully in many different domains, but it has not seen the same...... for work dedicated to all aspects of content-based recommender systems....... level of attention as collaborative filtering techniques have. Nevertheless, there are many recommendation domains and applications where content and metadata play a key role, either in addition to or instead of ratings and implicit usage data. The CBRecSys workshop series provides a dedicated venue...

  20. Trend analysis of GIMMS and MODIS NDVI time series for establishing a land degradation neutrality national baseline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gichenje, Helene; Godinho, Sergio

    2017-04-01

    Land degradation is a key global environment and development problem that is recognized as a priority by the international development community. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted by the global community in 2015, and include a goal related to land degradation and the accompanying target to achieve a land degradation-neutral (LDN) world by 2030. The LDN concept encompasses two joint actions of reducing the rate of degradation and increasing the rate of restoration. Using Kenya as the study area, this study aims to develop and test a spatially explicit methodology for assessing and monitoring the operationalization of a land degradation neutrality scheme at the national level. Time series analysis is applied to Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) satellite data records, based on the hypothesis that the resulting NDVI residual trend would enable successful detection of changes in vegetation photosynthetic capacity and thus serve as a proxy for land degradation and regeneration processes. Two NDVI data sets are used to identify the spatial and temporal distribution of degraded and regenerated areas: the long term coarse resolution (8km, 1982-2015) third generation Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) NDVI3g data record; and the shorter-term finer resolution (250m, 2001-2015) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived NDVI data record. Climate data (rainfall, temperature and soil moisture) are used to separate areas of human-induced vegetation productivity decline from those driven by climate dynamics. Further, weekly vegetation health (VH) indexes (4km, 1982-2015) developed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), are assessed as indicators for early detection and monitoring of land degradation by estimating vegetation stress (moisture, thermal and combined conditions).

  1. Oral health among 35-year-olds in Oslo, Norway. A summary of time trends 1973-2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasa Skudutyte-Rysstad

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Oral health conditions have been investigated in 35-year-old Oslo citizens in four cross-sectional, age-specific epidemiological studies performed in 1973, 1984, 1993 and 2003. The main aim of the series of investigations was to monitor changes in oral health, including dental caries and endodontic and periodontal conditions. Data will give clues to what extent the documented improvements in oral health among children and adolescents also have been maintained into adulthood.Methods: Random samples of 200-250 35-year-olds were selected from The Norwegian Bureau of Statistics database and invited to participate. They completed a self administered questionnaire and were examined clinically and radiographically. The attendance rate varied between 64% and 80%.Findings: The results presented are based on time-trend analyses. Caries prevalence, measured as the mean DMFS scores, was high and stable from 1973 (DMFS=68.2 to 1984 (DMFS=66.5, but decreased from 1984 (DMFS=40.9 to 2003 (DMFS=26.1, indicating a 62% reduction in caries and treatment experience. During the whole period, the prevalence of root filled teeth and prevalence of apical periodontitis decreased, but no improvement from 1993 to 2003 could be demonstrated. Assessment of periodontal status showed that the proportion of persons with one or more periodontal pockets ≥6mm decreased from 22% in 1984 to 8% in 2003. The proportion of persons without recorded bone loss increased from 46% in 1973 to 76% in 2003. The oral hygiene improved from 1973 to 1993 with no further improvement during the last decennium.Conclusion: There has been a positive development in oral health among young, urban adults in Norway during the last 30 years.In the present paper, information from the first author’s PhD-thesis (1 is extensively used

  2. Gender-related difference, geographical variation and time trend in dietary cadmium intake in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, T.; Shimbo, S.; Nakatsuka, H.; Koizumi, A.; Higashikawa, K.; Matsuda-Inoguchi, N.; Ikeda, M.

    2004-01-01

    -related differences, and time-dependent decrease in dietary Cd intake in Japan were detected through analyses of food duplicate-based databases. The leading role of rice as dietary Cd source was also observed

  3. Health Information System Role-Based Access Control Current Security Trends and Challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Carvalho Junior, Marcelo Antonio; Bandiera-Paiva, Paulo

    2018-01-01

    This article objective is to highlight implementation characteristics, concerns, or limitations over role-based access control (RBAC) use on health information system (HIS) using industry-focused literature review of current publishing for that purpose. Based on the findings, assessment for indication of RBAC is obsolete considering HIS authorization control needs. We have selected articles related to our investigation theme "RBAC trends and limitations" in 4 different sources related to health informatics or to the engineering technical field. To do so, we have applied the following search query string: "Role-Based Access Control" OR "RBAC" AND "Health information System" OR "EHR" AND "Trends" OR "Challenges" OR "Security" OR "Authorization" OR "Attacks" OR "Permission Assignment" OR "Permission Relation" OR "Permission Mapping" OR "Constraint". We followed PRISMA applicable flow and general methodology used on software engineering for systematic review. 20 articles were selected after applying inclusion and exclusion criteria resulting contributions from 10 different countries. 17 articles advocate RBAC adaptations. The main security trends and limitations mapped were related to emergency access, grant delegation, and interdomain access control. Several publishing proposed RBAC adaptations and enhancements in order to cope current HIS use characteristics. Most of the existent RBAC studies are not related to health informatics industry though. There is no clear indication of RBAC obsolescence for HIS use.

  4. Time trends in the incidence of hysterectomy-corrected overall, type 1 and type 2 endometrial cancer in Denmark 1978-2014

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Mette Tuxen; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Jensen, Allan

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate time trends in the incidence of overall, type 1 and type 2 endometrial cancer in Denmark 1978-2014, correcting for hysterectomy. METHODS: Based on the Danish Cancer Registry and the Danish National Patient Registry we calculated hysterectomy-corrected incidence rates...... of overall, type 1 and type 2 endometrial cancer. Separate analyses for women ...-linear Poisson models were used to estimate annual percentage change (APC) in incidence with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: The overall incidence of endometrial cancer decreased slightly from 1978 to 1995, but in the last two decades of the study period the incidence has been stable (APC=0.16; 95% CI...

  5. Ethnic differences in the time trend of female breast cancer incidence: Singapore, 1968 – 2002

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tan Chuen-Seng

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background From 1968 to 2002, Singapore experienced an almost three-fold increase in breast cancer incidence. This increase appeared to be different across the three main ethnic groups: Chinese, Malays and Indians. This paper used age-period-cohort (APC modelling, to determine the effects of age at diagnosis, calendar period, and birth cohort on breast cancer incidence for each ethnic group. Methods This study included all breast cancer cases (n = 15,269 in the three ethnic groups, reported to the Singapore Cancer Registry from 1968 to 2002 between the ages 25 to 79. Age-specific fertility rates from the Department of Statistics were used to explore the role of fertility. Results In the 1970s, Indian women had the highest age-standardized breast cancer but by the mid-1980s the highest rates were seen among the Chinese. Remarkable differences were seen in the age-specific incidence rates by ethnic groups. After age 49, the incidence rates for the Chinese and Malays leveled off whereas it continued to rise in the Indians. While our analyses provided some evidence that an age-drift model described the trend seen in the Indians, age-period-cohort model and age-cohort model had the best fit for the Chinese and Malays aged 25 to 79 respectively. Overall, Chinese and Malay women born in later cohorts were at increased risk of developing breast cancer relative to their counterparts in the earlier cohorts. The three ethnic groups experienced similar changes in their fertility in the 1970s, which likely explained much of the increase in their breast cancer incidence but not the ethnic differences. There was a stronger inverse association between total fertility rate and pre-menopausal breast cancer incidence in the Chinese and Malays than the Indians. Conclusion The observed dissimilarity among ethnic groups suggests ethnic differences in exposure or response to certain risk factors. It is likely that longer and subtler differences in

  6. Secular Trends on Birth Parameters, Growth, and Pubertal Timing in Girls with Turner Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joachim Woelfle

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundWhether children with chromosomal disorders of growth and puberty are affected by secular trends (STs as observed in the general population remains unanswered, but this question has relevance for expectations of spontaneous development and treatment responses.ObjectivesThe aim of the study was to evaluate STs in birth parameters, growth, and pubertal development in girls with Turner syndrome (TS.Study designRetrospective analysis of KIGS data (Pfizer International Growth Database. We included all TS patients who entered KIGS between 1987 and 2012 and were born from 1975 to 2004, who were prepubertal and growth treatment naïve at first entry (total number: 7,219. Pretreatment height and ages at the start of treatment were compared across 5-year birth year groups, with subgroup analyses stratified by induced or spontaneous puberty start.ResultsWe observed significant STs across the birth year groups for birth weight [+0.18 SD score (SDS, p < 0.001], pretreatment height at mean age 8 years (+0.73 SDS, p < 0.001, height at the start of growth hormone (GH therapy (+0.38 SDS, p < 0.001 and start of puberty (+0.42 SDS, p < 0.001. Spontaneous puberty onset increased from 15 to 30% (p < 0.001. Mean age at the start of GH treatment decreased from 10.8 to 7.4 years (−3.4 years; p < 0.001, and substantial declines were seen in ages at onset of spontaneous and induced puberty (−2.0 years; p < 0.001 and menarche (−2.1 years; p < 0.001.ConclusionEnvironmental changes leading to increased height and earlier and also more common, spontaneous puberty are applicable in TS as in normal girls. In addition, greater awareness for TS may underlie trends to earlier start of GH therapy and induction of puberty at a more physiological age.

  7. Research collaboration and topic trends in Computer Science based on top active authors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Wu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Academic publication metadata can be used to analyze the collaboration, productivity and hot topic trends of a research community. In this paper, we study a specific group of authors, namely the top active authors. They are defined as the top 1% authors with uninterrupted and continuous presence in scientific publications over a time window. We take the top active authors in the Computer Science (CS community over different time windows in the past 50 years, and use them to analyze collaboration, productivity and topic trends. We show that (a the top active authors are representative of the overall population; (b the community is increasingly moving in the direction of Team Research, with increased level and degree of collaboration; and (c the research topics are increasingly inter-related. By focusing on the top active authors, it helps visualize these trends better. Besides, the observations from top active authors also shed light on design of better evaluation framework and resource management for policy makers in academia.

  8. Time Series Based for Online Signature Verification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I Ketut Gede Darma Putra

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Signature verification system is to match the tested signature with a claimed signature. This paper proposes time series based for feature extraction method and dynamic time warping for match method. The system made by process of testing 900 signatures belong to 50 participants, 3 signatures for reference and 5 signatures from original user, simple imposters and trained imposters for signatures test. The final result system was tested with 50 participants with 3 references. This test obtained that system accuracy without imposters is 90,44897959% at threshold 44 with rejection errors (FNMR is 5,2% and acceptance errors (FMR is 4,35102%, when with imposters system accuracy is 80,1361% at threshold 27 with error rejection (FNMR is 15,6% and acceptance errors (average FMR is 4,263946%, with details as follows: acceptance errors is 0,391837%, acceptance errors simple imposters is 3,2% and acceptance errors trained imposters is 9,2%.

  9. Time trends (1986-2003) of radiocesium transfer to roe deer and wild boar in two Austrian forest regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strebl, F. [Austrian Research Centers GmbH - ARC, Radiation Safety and Applications, A-2444 Seibersdorf (Austria)], E-mail: friederike.strebl@arcs.ac.at; Tataruch, F. [Research Institute of Wildlife Ecology, University of Veterinary Medicine, Savoyenstr.1, A 1160 Vienna (Austria)

    2007-11-15

    Starting shortly after the Chernobyl accident, samples of roe deer and wild boar from two comparatively highly contaminated Austrian forest stands have been regularly analysed for {sup 137}Cs. Until 1995 average {sup 137}Cs concentrations exceeded 1000 Bq kg{sup -1} in both roe deer and wild boar. Long-term and seasonal trends are similar in both investigation sites. While {sup 137}Cs aggregated transfer factor (T{sub ag}) values show a significant decreasing trend in roe deer (ecological half-time 8.6 and 7.2 years, respectively), T{sub ag}-values in wild boar are highly variable, but rather increasing values are observed over the last years. T{sub ag}-values for roe deer are between 0.04 and 0.008 m{sup 2} kg{sup -1} fresh weight (1987-2003); values for wild boar are between 0.008 m{sup 2} kg{sup -1} (1988) and 0.046 m{sup 2} kg{sup -1} (1996) fresh weight. Seasonal trends for both species are in good agreement with observations from German forests: increased mushroom ingestion leads to higher {sup 137}Cs T{sub ag}-values for roe deer in the second half of the year (August-December) compared to the first half (January-July). T{sub ag}-values for wild boar are highest in the first half of the year.

  10. Patterns of glucose lowering drugs utilization in Portugal and in the Netherlands. Trends over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torre, Carla; Guerreiro, José; de Oliveira Martins, Sofia; Raposo, João Filipe; Martins, Ana Paula; Leufkens, Hubert

    2015-12-01

    To compare the temporal trends in the consumption patterns of glucose lowering drugs (GLD) between Portugal and the Netherlands from 2004 to 2013 and to examine possible reasons behind the cross-national variation found. All GLD (ATC pharmacological subgroup A10B) were selected for analysis. Consumption data were obtained for the 10-year period. Portuguese and Dutch drug estimates were obtained from nationwide databases. The consumption of GLD increased in Portugal from 52.9 defined daily dose per 1000 inhabitants per day (DHD) in 2004 to 70.0 DHD in 2013 and in the Netherlands from 44.9 DHD in 2004 to 50.7 DHD in 2013. In Portugal, the use of fixed-dose combinations, especially with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4) increased remarkably and in 2013 represented almost a quarter of total GLD consumption. In the Netherlands, the use of combinations was residual. The consumption of GLD rose over the 10-year period in both countries. However, Portuguese overall consumption and costs of GLD were higher. The differentially rapid uptake of DPP-4 inhibitors in Portugal was the main driver of the cost difference. Copyright © 2015 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Gender influence in influenza vaccine uptake in Spain: time trends analysis (1995-2006).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiménez-García, Rodrigo; Hernández-Barrera, Valentín; de Andres, Ana Lopez; Jimenez-Trujillo, Isabel; Esteban-Hernández, Jesus; Carrasco-Garrido, Pilar

    2010-08-31

    This study aims to analyze gender differences in influenza vaccine coverage and predictors of vaccine uptake in Spain from year 1995 to 2006. We used data obtained from the Spanish National Health Surveys (NHSS) conducted in 1995, 1997, 2001, 2003 and 2006. Only subjects for whom the vaccine was recommended in Spain (age >or=65 years and trends 1995/1997-2006 showed that the coverage has improved for women (OR 1.12 CI 95% 1.09-1.16) and men (OR 1.11 CI 95% 1.06-1.15). Over the whole study period men had 12% greater probability of having received the vaccine. We conclude that in Spain there are significant gender differences in influenza vaccine uptake with lower coverage among women. These differences have remained throughout all years studied. We suggest that possible explanations for the lower uptake among women could include less social support, differences in the health status and provider bias. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Linear Regression Based Real-Time Filtering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Misel Batmend

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces real time filtering method based on linear least squares fitted line. Method can be used in case that a filtered signal is linear. This constraint narrows a band of potential applications. Advantage over Kalman filter is that it is computationally less expensive. The paper further deals with application of introduced method on filtering data used to evaluate a position of engraved material with respect to engraving machine. The filter was implemented to the CNC engraving machine control system. Experiments showing its performance are included.

  13. De-trending of turbulence measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

    2007-01-01

    this requires access to the basic time-series. However, including a suitable modelling of the mean wind speed time variation, it is possible to estimate an approximate (linear) trend correction based on statistical data only. This paper presents such an algorithm for de-trending of turbulence standard deviation...... in mean wind speed appears as a trend in the wind speed time series, and often a linear trend is assumed. Wind resource measurements typically include statistics of ten-minute mean and standard deviation, and for such data it is not possible to calculate the trend contribution directly, because...... based on time series statistics only. The performance of the proposed de-trending algorithm is assessed using huge number of time series recorded at different types of terrain and orography. The strategy is the following: Based on the available time series information a conventional (linear) time series...

  14. Trend Analysis of Soil Salinity in Different Land Cover Types Using Landsat Time Series Data (case Study Bakhtegan Salt Lake)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghadosi, M. M.; Hasanlou, M.

    2017-09-01

    Soil salinity is one of the main causes of desertification and land degradation which has negative impacts on soil fertility and crop productivity. Monitoring salt affected areas and assessing land cover changes, which caused by salinization, can be an effective approach to rehabilitate saline soils and prevent further salinization of agricultural fields. Using potential of satellite imagery taken over time along with remote sensing techniques, makes it possible to determine salinity changes at regional scales. This study deals with monitoring salinity changes and trend of the expansion in different land cover types of Bakhtegan Salt Lake district during the last two decades using multi-temporal Landsat images. For this purpose, per-pixel trend analysis of soil salinity during years 2000 to 2016 was performed and slope index maps of the best salinity indicators were generated for each pixel in the scene. The results of this study revealed that vegetation indices (GDVI and EVI) and also salinity indices (SI-1 and SI-3) have great potential to assess soil salinity trends in vegetation and bare soil lands respectively due to more sensitivity to salt features over years of study. In addition, images of May had the best performance to highlight changes in pixels among different months of the year. A comparative analysis of different slope index maps shows that more than 76% of vegetated areas have experienced negative trends during 17 years, of which about 34% are moderately and highly saline. This percent is increased to 92% for bare soil lands and 29% of salt affected soils had severe salinization. It can be concluded that the areas, which are close to the lake, are more affected by salinity and salts from the lake were brought into the soil which will lead to loss of soil productivity ultimately.

  15. Nosocomial infection surveillance in a surgical intensive care unit in Spain, 1996-2000: a time-trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lizan-Garcia, Maxima; Peyro, Ramon; Cortina, Manuel; Crespo, Maria Dolores; Tobias, Aurelio

    2006-01-01

    To establish the occurrence, distribution, and secular time trend of nosocomial infections (NIs) in a surgical intensive care unit (ICU). Follow-up study in a teaching hospital in Spain. In May 1995 we established an nosocomial infection surveillance system in our surgical ICU. We collected information daily for all patients who were in the ICU for at least 48 hours (546 patients from 1996 through 2000). We used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention definitions and criteria for infections. Monthly, we determined the site-specific incidence densities of NIs, the rates of medical device use, and the Poisson probability distribution, which determined whether the case count equalled the number of expected cases (the mean number of cases during the previous year, with extreme values excluded). We compared yearly and monthly infection rates by Poisson regression, using site-specific NIs as a dependent variable and year and month as dummy variables. We tested annual trends with an alternative Poisson regression model fitting a single linear trend. The average rate of catheter-associated urinary tract infections was 8.4 per 1000 catheter-days; that of ventilator-associated pneumonia, 21 per 1000 ventilator-days; and that of central line-associated bloodstream infections, 30 per 1000 central line-days. The rate of urinary tract infections did not change over the study period, but there was a trend toward decreases in the rates of central line-associated bloodstream infections and ventilator-associated pneumonia. An NI surveillance and control program contributed to a progressive decrease in NI rates.

  16. Coronary heart disease mortality among young adults in Scotland in relation to social inequalities: time trend study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Flaherty, Martin; Bishop, Jennifer; Redpath, Adam; McLaughlin, Terry; Murphy, David; Chalmers, James; Capewell, Simon

    2009-07-14

    To examine recent trends and social inequalities in age specific coronary heart disease mortality. Time trend analysis using joinpoint regression. Scotland, 1986-2006. Men and women aged 35 years and over. Age adjusted and age, sex, and deprivation specific coronary heart disease mortality. Persistent sixfold social differentials in coronary heart disease mortality were seen between the most deprived and the most affluent groups aged 35-44 years. These differentials diminished with increasing age but equalised only above 85 years. Between 1986 and 2006, overall, age adjusted coronary heart disease mortality decreased by 61% in men and by 56% in women. Among middle aged and older adults, mortality continued to decrease fairly steadily throughout the period. However, coronary heart disease mortality levelled from 1994 onwards among young men and women aged 35-44 years. Rates in men and women aged 45-54 showed similar flattening from about 2003. Rates in women aged 55-64 may also now be flattening. The flattening of coronary heart disease mortality in younger men and women was confined to the two most deprived fifths. Premature death from coronary heart disease remains a major contributor to social inequalities. Furthermore, the flattening of the decline in mortality for coronary heart disease among younger adults may represent an early warning sign. The observed trends were confined to the most deprived groups. Marked deterioration in medical management of coronary heart disease seems implausible. Unfavourable trends in the major risk factors for coronary heart disease (smoking and poor diet) thus provide the most likely explanation for these inequalities.

  17. Real time estimation in local polynomial regression, with application to trend-cycle analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Proietti, Tommaso; Luati, Alessandra

    2008-01-01

    The paper focuses on the adaptation of local polynomial filters at the end of the sample period. We show that for real time estimation of signals (i.e., exactly at the boundary of the time support) we cannot rely on the automatic adaptation of the local polynomial smoothers, since the direct real time filter turns out to be strongly localized, and thereby yields extremely volatile estimates. As an alternative, we evaluate a general family of asymmetric filters that minimizes the mean square r...

  18. EPQ model for imperfect production processes with rework and random preventive machine time for deteriorating items and trended demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shah Nita H.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Economic production quantity (EPQ model has been analyzed for trended demand, and units in inventory are subject to constant rate. The system allows rework of imperfect units, and preventive maintenance time is random. A search method is used to study the model. The proposed methodology is validated by a numerical example. The sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the critical model parameters. It is observed that the rate of change of demand, and the deterioration rate have a significant impact on the decision variables and the total cost of an inventory system. The model is highly sensitive to the production and demand rate.

  19. Time Trends in the Family Physician Management of Insomnia: The Australian Experience (2000-2015).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Christopher B; Valenti, Lisa; Harrison, Christopher M; Bartlett, Delwyn J; Glozier, Nick; Cross, Nathan E; Grunstein, Ronald R; Britt, Helena C; Marshall, Nathaniel S

    2017-06-15

    To evaluate changes in rates of family physician (FP) management of insomnia in Australia from 2000-2015. The Bettering the Evaluation And Care of Health (BEACH) program is a nationally representative cross-sectional survey of 1,000 newly randomly sampled family physicians' activity in Australia per year, who each record details of 100 consecutive patient encounters. This provided records of approximately 100,000 encounters each year. We identified all encounters with patients older than 15 years where insomnia or difficulty sleeping was managed and assessed trends in these encounters from 2000-2015. There was no change in the management rate of insomnia from 2000-2007 (1.54 per 100 encounters [95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.49-1.58]). This rate was lower from 2008-2015 (1.31 per 100 encounters [95% CI: 1.27-1.35]). There was no change in FP management: pharmacotherapy was used in approximately 90% of encounters; nonpharmacological advice was given at approximately 20%; and onward referral at approximately 1% of encounters. Prescription of temazepam changed from 54.6 [95% CI: 51.4-57.9] per 100 insomnia problems in 2000-2001 to 43.6 [95% CI: 40.1-47.0] in 2014-2015, whereas zolpidem increased steadily from introduction in 2000 to 14.6 [95% CI: 12.2-17.1] per 100 insomnia problems in 2006-2007, and then decreased to 7.3 [95% CI: 5.4-9.2] by 2014-2015. Insomnia management frequency decreased after 2007 in conjunction with ecologically associated Australian media reporting of adverse effects linked to zolpidem use. Australian FPs remain reliant on pharmacotherapy for the management of insomnia. © 2017 American Academy of Sleep Medicine

  20. Time trends in population prevalence of eating disorder behaviors and their relationship to quality of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchison, Deborah; Hay, Phillipa; Slewa-Younan, Shameran; Mond, Jonathan

    2012-01-01

    To examine temporal trends in the burden of eating disorder (ED) features, as estimated by the composite of their prevalence and impact upon quality of life (QoL) over a period of 10 years. Representative samples of 3010 participants in 1998 and 3034 participants in 2008 from the South Australian adult population were assessed for endorsement of ED features (objective binge eating, extreme dieting, and purging were assessed in both years; subjective binge eating and extreme weight/shape concerns were also assessed in 2008) and QoL using the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form (SF-36). From 1998 to 2008 significant increases in the prevalence of objective binge eating (2.7% to 4.9%, peffect of the endorsement of these ED behaviors on QoL between 1998 and 2008 (all p>0.05). Multiple linear regressions found that in 1998 only objective binge eating significantly predicted scores on the mental health summary scale of the SF-36; however, in 2008 extreme weight/shape concerns, extreme dieting, and subjective binge eating were also significant predictors. Objective binge eating and extreme dieting were significant predictors of scores on the physical health summary scale of the SF-36 in both 1998 and 2008. The prevalence of ED behaviors increased between 1998 and 2008, while their impact on QoL remained stable. This suggests an overall increase in the burden of disordered eating from 1998 to 2008. Given that binge eating and extreme dieting predict impairment in QoL, the necessity of interventions to prevent both under- and over-eating is reinforced.

  1. Time trends in population prevalence of eating disorder behaviors and their relationship to quality of life.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deborah Mitchison

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To examine temporal trends in the burden of eating disorder (ED features, as estimated by the composite of their prevalence and impact upon quality of life (QoL over a period of 10 years. METHODOLOGY: Representative samples of 3010 participants in 1998 and 3034 participants in 2008 from the South Australian adult population were assessed for endorsement of ED features (objective binge eating, extreme dieting, and purging were assessed in both years; subjective binge eating and extreme weight/shape concerns were also assessed in 2008 and QoL using the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form (SF-36. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From 1998 to 2008 significant increases in the prevalence of objective binge eating (2.7% to 4.9%, p0.05. Multiple linear regressions found that in 1998 only objective binge eating significantly predicted scores on the mental health summary scale of the SF-36; however, in 2008 extreme weight/shape concerns, extreme dieting, and subjective binge eating were also significant predictors. Objective binge eating and extreme dieting were significant predictors of scores on the physical health summary scale of the SF-36 in both 1998 and 2008. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: The prevalence of ED behaviors increased between 1998 and 2008, while their impact on QoL remained stable. This suggests an overall increase in the burden of disordered eating from 1998 to 2008. Given that binge eating and extreme dieting predict impairment in QoL, the necessity of interventions to prevent both under- and over-eating is reinforced.

  2. Persistent environmental contaminants in human milk: concentrations and time trends in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abballe, Annalisa; Ballard, Terri J; Dellatte, Elena; di Domenico, Alessandro; Ferri, Fabiola; Fulgenzi, Anna Rita; Grisanti, Giulio; Iacovella, Nicola; Ingelido, Anna Maria; Malisch, Rainer; Miniero, Roberto; Porpora, Maria Grazia; Risica, Serena; Ziemacki, Gianni; De Felip, Elena

    2008-08-01

    Breast milk monitoring studies of persistent and toxic environmental contaminants are of primary importance for carrying out an adequate risk assessment at the actual levels of human exposure and represent a major source of information on infant perinatal exposure. Milk specimens from mothers of the general population of the Venice and Rome areas were collected over the 1998-2001 period, pooled, and analyzed for selected persistent organic pollutants such as polychlorodibenzodioxins (PCDDs), polychlorodibenzofurans (PCDFs), polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs), organochlorinated pesticides (p,p'-DDE, p,p'-DDT, hexachlorobenzene), and polybromodiphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and the heavy metals Cd, Co, Cu, Hg, Mn, Pb, Sn, and Zn. The goal was to verify whether mother milk from the Venice area, whose lagoon is partly under direct industrial impact, had a contaminant load greater than that from the Rome area, primarily urban. For mothers from the Venice area, the correlation between fish and fishery product consumption and contaminant concentrations in milk was also explored, with however inconclusive results. The concentrations of PCDDs, PCDFs, dioxin-like PCBs, and organochlorinated pesticides determined in this study were compared with those available from a previous analytical work carried out on 1987 human milk pools of domestic origin: the declining trend of the aforesaid contaminants in milk is confirmed to be in agreement with what was observed in other European countries. The breast milk content of (137)Cs and (40)K radionuclides was also determined and compared with data obtained in other research programmes carried out in Italy: the health risk for breastfed infants was deemed to be not significant.

  3. Real-time on-line space research laboratory environment monitoring with off-line trend and prediction analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

    2007-06-01

    With the International Space Station currently operational, a significant amount of acceleration data is being down-linked, processed and analyzed daily on the ground on a continuous basis for the space station reduced gravity environment characterization, the vehicle design requirements verification and science data collection. To help understand the impact of the unique spacecraft environment on the science data, an artificial intelligence monitoring system was developed, which detects in near real time any change in the reduced gravity environment susceptible to affect the on-going experiments. Using a dynamic graphical display, the monitoring system allows science teams, at any time and any location, to see the active vibration disturbances, such as pumps, fans, compressor, crew exercise, re-boost and extra-vehicular activities that might impact the reduced gravity environment the experiments are exposed to. The monitoring system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many increments (an increment usually lasts 6 months) collected onboard the station for selected disturbances. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential systems failures. The monitoring system has two operating modes: online and offline. Both near real-time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line detection and trend analysis are discussed in this paper.

  4. Documenting and determining distributions, trends, and relations in truck times at international border crossing facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-20

    Documenting the times trucks incur when crossing an international border facility is valuable both to the private freight industry and to gateway facility operators and planners. : Members of the project team previously developed and implemented an a...

  5. Trends in leisure time physical activity, smoking, body mass index and alcohol consumption in Danish adults with and without diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molsted, Stig; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Snorgaard, Ole

    2014-01-01

    AIMS: In recent decades there has been an increased focus on non-pharmacological treatment of diabetes. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in leisure time physical activity (PA), smoking, body mass index (BMI), and alcohol consumption reported in 2000, 2005 and 2010 by Danish subjects......-sectional analyses from 2000, 2005 and 2010. RESULTS: In participants with diabetes, leisure time PA levels increased from 2000 to 2010: The percentage of those that were physically active increased from 53.5% to 78.2% (pprevalence of daily smokers...... with diabetes. METHODS: Data comprised level of leisure time PA (inactive; moderate active; medium active; high active); smoking; BMI; and alcohol consumption, provided by The Danish Health and Morbidity Surveys. Participants older than 45 years with or without diabetes were included from cross...

  6. The main trends of dynamics of incomes of Russians in times of economic crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. L. Petryakova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A research objective which result was this article is the analysis of dynamics of the income of families during the last economic crisis in Russia and influence of change of the standard of living on performance by a family of the main functions, first of all reproductive, zhizneokhranitelny and educational. Now quite steady growth of birth rate, improvement of the indicators characterizing family trouble (refusals of the born children, deprivation of the parental rights, deviant behavior of children and teenagers and health of children and teenagers is observed, however, as a result of decrease in the standard of living, increase in employment of parents, violation of this favorable tendency is possible. The research is based on the analysis of statistical and sociological information, including results of polls of the population, in him the research of ranks of dynamics, graphic and tabular methods is applied. In article sources of the income of the population, first of all – the salary and social payments exerting the greatest impact on the level of the income in general are considered. On the basis of the carried-out analysis the main tendencies characterizing extent of fall of the income of families with children proceeding from this research are formulated, it is possible to speak about increase of needs of families in measures of economic support. However, at the same time becomes the negative moment on the one hand, extremely low knowledge of families of already available measures of such help, and with another – their low assessment and unwillingness to participate in these or those programs offered by the state. In turn it is the factor worsening financial position of families too. High prosperity, material security still (as well as the 90th years, as well as at the beginning of this century are on an equal basis with a family and children the leading value of Russians. It is connected, first of all

  7. The Use of Categorized Time-Trend Reporting of Radiation Oncology Incidents: A Proactive Analytical Approach to Improving Quality and Safety Over Time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, Anthony; Delaney, Geoff P.; Cassapi, Lynette; Barton, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: Radiotherapy is a common treatment for cancer patients. Although incidence of error is low, errors can be severe or affect significant numbers of patients. In addition, errors will often not manifest until long periods after treatment. This study describes the development of an incident reporting tool that allows categorical analysis and time trend reporting, covering first 3 years of use. Methods and Materials: A radiotherapy-specific incident analysis system was established. Staff members were encouraged to report actual errors and near-miss events detected at prescription, simulation, planning, or treatment phases of radiotherapy delivery. Trend reporting was reviewed monthly. Results: Reports were analyzed for the first 3 years of operation (May 2004-2007). A total of 688 reports was received during the study period. The actual error rate was 0.2% per treatment episode. During the study period, the actual error rates reduced significantly from 1% per year to 0.3% per year (p < 0.001), as did the total event report rates (p < 0.0001). There were 3.5 times as many near misses reported compared with actual errors. Conclusions: This system has allowed real-time analysis of events within a radiation oncology department to a reduced error rate through focus on learning and prevention from the near-miss reports. Plans are underway to develop this reporting tool for Australia and New Zealand.

  8. Time trends in social differences in nutrition habits of a Lithuanian population: 1994-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kriaucioniene Vilma

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During the post-communist transition period, political, economic, and social changes affected the lifestyles of the Lithuanian population, including their nutritional habits. However, people of lower socio-economic position were more vulnerable to these changes. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the trends in selected food habits of the Lithuanian adult population by their level of education and place of residence from 1994 to 2010. Methods The data were obtained from nine biannual cross-sectional postal surveys of Lithuanian health behaviours, beginning in 1994. Each survey used a randomly selected nationally representative sample of 3000 inhabitants aged 20-64 drawn from the population register. In total, 7358 men and 9796 women participated in these surveys. Questions about food consumption were included within all health behaviour questionnaires. Results During the transition period, use of vegetable oil in cooking and the frequency of consumption of fresh vegetables increased, use of butter on bread decreased, and the proportion of women drinking high-fat milk declined. Lithuanians with higher education reported more frequent use of vegetable oil in cooking as well as daily consumption of fresh vegetables than those with a lower level of education. Consumption of high-fat milk was inversely associated with educational background. In addition, the proportion of persons spreading butter on bread increased with higher education level. The greatest urban-rural difference was observed in high-fat milk consumption. The increase in the use of vegetable oil in cooking, and the reduction of spreading butter on bread was more evident among less educated and rural inhabitants. Meanwhile, a greater proportion of the rural population, compared to urban, reduced their use of butter on bread. Daily consumption of fresh vegetables increased most among highly educated Lithuanians. Conclusions The data from our study indicate

  9. Phthalates and perfluorooctanesulfonic acid in human amniotic fluid: temporal trends and timing of amniocentesis in pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Morten Søndergaard; Nørgaard-Pedersen, Bent; Toft, Gunnar; Hougaard, David M; Bonde, Jens Peter; Cohen, Arieh; Thulstrup, Ane Marie; Ivell, Richard; Anand-Ivell, Ravinder; Lindh, Christian H; Jönsson, Bo A G

    2012-06-01

    Measures of prenatal environmental exposures are important, and amniotic fluid levels may directly reflect fetal exposures during hypothesized windows of vulnerability. We aimed to detect various phthalate metabolites and perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) in human amniotic fluid, to study temporal exposure trends, and to estimate potential associations with gestational week of amniocentesis and maternal age and parity at amniocentesis. We studied 300 randomly selected second-trimester amniotic fluid samples from a Danish pregnancy-screening biobank covering 1980 through 1996. We used only samples from male offspring pregnancies. We assayed the environmental pollutants by liquid chromatography/triple quadrupole mass spectrometry and analyzed data using generalized linear regression models. We detected the di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) metabolite mono(2-ethyl-5-carboxypentyl) phthalate (5cx-MEPP) at a median concentration of 0.27 ng/mL [interquartile range (IQR): 0.20-0.37 ng/mL], the diisononyl phthalate (DiNP) metabolite mono(4-methyl-7-carboxyheptyl) phthalate (7cx-MMeHP) at 0.07 ng/mL (IQR: 0.05-0.11 ng/mL), and PFOS at 1.1 ng/mL (IQR: 0.66-1.60 ng/mL). An increase of 1 calendar year was associated with 3.5% lower [95% confidence interval (CI): -4.8%, -2.1%] 5cx-MEPP levels and with 7.1% higher (95% CI: 5.3%, 9.0%) 7cx-MMeHP levels. For each later gestational week of amniocentesis, 5cx-MEPP was 9.9% higher (95% CI: 4.8%, 15.2%), 7cx-MMeHP was 8.6% higher (95: CI: 2.7%, 14.9%), and PFOS was 9.4% higher (95: CI: 3.3%, 15.9%). We observed no associations with maternal age or parity. Measured metabolite levels appeared to parallel decreasing DEHP exposure and increasing DiNP exposure during the study period. The environmental pollutant levels were positively associated with later gestational age at amniocentesis during pregnancy weeks 12-22.

  10. Seasonal trend analysis and ARIMA modeling of relative humidity and wind speed time series around Yamula Dam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eymen, Abdurrahman; Köylü, Ümran

    2018-02-01

    Local climate change is determined by analysis of long-term recorded meteorological data. In the statistical analysis of the meteorological data, the Mann-Kendall rank test, which is one of the non-parametrical tests, has been used; on the other hand, for determining the power of the trend, Theil-Sen method has been used on the data obtained from 16 meteorological stations. The stations cover the provinces of Kayseri, Sivas, Yozgat, and Nevşehir in the Central Anatolia region of Turkey. Changes in land-use affect local climate. Dams are structures that cause major changes on the land. Yamula Dam is located 25 km northwest of Kayseri. The dam has huge water body which is approximately 85 km2. The mentioned tests have been used for detecting the presence of any positive or negative trend in meteorological data. The meteorological data in relation to the seasonal average, maximum, and minimum values of the relative humidity and seasonal average wind speed have been organized as time series and the tests have been conducted accordingly. As a result of these tests, the following have been identified: increase was observed in minimum relative humidity values in the spring, summer, and autumn seasons. As for the seasonal average wind speed, decrease was detected for nine stations in all seasons, whereas increase was observed in four stations. After the trend analysis, pre-dam mean relative humidity time series were modeled with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) model which is statistical modeling tool. Post-dam relative humidity values were predicted by ARIMA models.

  11. Time trends and correlates of late presentation for HIV care in Northern Greece during the decade 2000 to 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metallidis, Simeon; Pilalas, Dimitrios; Skoura, Lemonia; Haidich, Anna-Bettina; Tsachouridou, Olga; Papaioannou, Maria; Chrysanthidis, Theofilos; Bakaimi, Isidora; Antoniadou, Zoe A; Margariti, Apostolia; Malisiovas, Nicolaos; Nikolaidis, Pavlos

    2012-01-01

    Background The aim of our study was to assess the extent of late presentation for HIV care in Northern Greece during the period 2000 to 2010 and to explore correlations aiming to provide guidance for future interventions. Methods HIV-positive patients with no prior history of HIV care at presentation and with a CD4 T cell count within three months from the first confirmatory Western blot result were eligible for this study. Late presentation and advanced HIV disease were defined in concordance with the recommendations of the European Late Presenter Consensus working group. Time trends in presentation status and risk factors linked to late presentation and advanced HIV disease were identified in multivariable logistic regression models. Additional analyses after multiple imputation of missing values were performed to assess the robustness of our findings. Results The status at presentation was evaluated for 631 eligible HIV-positive individuals. Overall, 52.5% (95% CI: 48.6% to 56.4%) of patients presented late for HIV care and 31.2% (95% CI: 27.6% to 34.8%) presented with advanced HIV disease. Time trends were consistent with an improvement in the presentation status of our study population (p<0.001). Risk factors associated with late presentation in multivariable logistic regression were intravenous drug use, heterosexual HIV transmission, immigrant status and age at diagnosis. Conclusions Despite the trend for improvement, a significant proportion of newly diagnosed HIV-positive patients present late for care. Targeted interventions with focus on social groups such as the elderly, persons who inject drugs, immigrants and individuals at risk for heterosexual HIV transmission are mandated. PMID:23305650

  12. Trends over time in congenital malformations in live-born children conceived after assisted reproductive technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsen, Anna-Karina Aaris; Bergh, Christina; Skjaerven, Rolv

    2018-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Children born after assisted reproductive technology (ART), particularly singletons, have been shown to have an increased risk of congenital malformations compared with children born after spontaneous conception. We wished to study if there has been a change in the risk of major...... spontaneous conception during the study period. The relative risk of being born with a major congenital malformation between all ART children and spontaneous conception children remained similar through all four time periods, p=0.39. However, we found that over time the number of children diagnosed...

  13. New insights into survival trend analyses in cancer population-based studies: the SUDCAN methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uhry, Zoé; Bossard, Nadine; Remontet, Laurent; Iwaz, Jean; Roche, Laurent

    2017-01-01

    The main objective of the SUDCAN study was to compare, for 15 cancer sites, the trends in net survival and excess mortality rates from cancer 5 years after diagnosis between six European Latin countries (Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland). The data were extracted from the EUROCARE-5 database. The study period ranged from 6 (Portugal, 2000-2005) to 18 years (Switzerland, 1989-2007). Trend analyses were carried out separately for each country and cancer site; the number of cases ranged from 1500 to 104 000 cases. We developed an original flexible excess rate modelling strategy that accounts for the continuous effects of age, year of diagnosis, time since diagnosis and their interactions. Nineteen models were constructed; they differed in the modelling of the effect of the year of diagnosis in terms of linearity, proportionality and interaction with age. The final model was chosen according to the Akaike Information Criterion. The fit was assessed graphically by comparing model estimates versus nonparametric (Pohar-Perme) net survival estimates. Out of the 90 analyses carried out, the effect of the year of diagnosis on the excess mortality rate depended on age in 61 and was nonproportional in 64; it was nonlinear in 27 out of the 75 analyses where this effect was considered. The model fit was overall satisfactory. We analysed successfully 15 cancer sites in six countries. The refined methodology proved necessary for detailed trend analyses. It is hoped that three-dimensional parametric modelling will be used more widely in net survival trend studies as it has major advantages over stratified analyses.

  14. A reducing trend of fasciolosis in slaughtered animals based on abattoir data in South of Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kordshooli, Manoochehr Shabani; Solhjoo, Kavous; Armand, Belal; Dowlatkhah, Hamidreza; Jahromi, Masoud Esmi

    2017-04-01

    Fascioliasis is a zoonosis infection caused by the liver trematodes ( Fasciola spp.) which have been considered to be an important disease in livestock. After several large outbreaks, fascioliasis remains one of the serious health concerns of Iran. This study was conducted to evaluate the prevalence and possible trends of fascioliasis in slaughtered animals in South of Iran based on abattoir data during a period of 5 years. The daily records for cattle, sheep, and goats slaughtered in the abattoir were extracted from the archived documents of the recent 5 years (2011-2015) and used as the source of data. The collected data were statistically analyzed for finding any probable correlation between the various factors associated with fasciolosis. Our results showed that 3.44% of all slaughtered animals during 2011-2015 were infected with Fasciola spp. The mean prevalence of fasciolosis for cattle, sheep, and goat was 11.15%, 5.22%, and 2.15%, respectively. In addition, the highest infection rate was in winter (4.02%), and the lowest were entered in summer (2.86%). Our findings showed a reducing trend during the 5 years. Improving the animal husbandry and increasing the awareness through fasciolosis may be a logical explanation for this trend. Since there have been suggested numerous factors associated with the epidemiology of fasciolosis, further studies seem essential for better clarifying the various aspects of fasciolosis in areas.

  15. A reducing trend of fasciolosis in slaughtered animals based on abattoir data in South of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manoochehr Shabani Kordshooli

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim: Fascioliasis is a zoonosis infection caused by the liver trematodes (Fasciola spp. which have been considered to be an important disease in livestock. After several large outbreaks, fascioliasis remains one of the serious health concerns of Iran. This study was conducted to evaluate the prevalence and possible trends of fascioliasis in slaughtered animals in South of Iran based on abattoir data during a period of 5 years. Materials and Methods: The daily records for cattle, sheep, and goats slaughtered in the abattoir were extracted from the archived documents of the recent 5 years (2011-2015 and used as the source of data. The collected data were statistically analyzed for finding any probable correlation between the various factors associated with fasciolosis. Results: Our results showed that 3.44% of all slaughtered animals during 2011-2015 were infected with Fasciola spp. The mean prevalence of fasciolosis for cattle, sheep, and goat was 11.15%, 5.22%, and 2.15%, respectively. In addition, the highest infection rate was in winter (4.02%, and the lowest were entered in summer (2.86%. Conclusion: Our findings showed a reducing trend during the 5 years. Improving the animal husbandry and increasing the awareness through fasciolosis may be a logical explanation for this trend. Since there have been suggested numerous factors associated with the epidemiology of fasciolosis, further studies seem essential for better clarifying the various aspects of fasciolosis in areas.

  16. Climate trends and behaviour of drought indices based on precipitation and evapotranspiration in Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Paulo

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Distinction between drought and aridity is crucial to understand water scarcity processes. Drought indices are used for drought identification and drought severity characterisation. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI are the most known drought indices. In this study, they are compared with the modified PDSI for Mediterranean conditions (MedPDSI and the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI. MedPDSI results from the soil water balance of an olive crop, thus real evapotranspiration is considered, while SPEI uses potential (climatic evapotranspiration. Similarly to the SPI, SPEI can be computed at various time scales. Aiming at understanding possible impacts of climate change, prior to compare the drought indices, a trend analysis relative to precipitation and temperature in 27 weather stations of Portugal was performed for the period 1941 to 2006. A trend for temperature increase was observed for some weather stations and trends for decreasing precipitation in March and increasing in October were also observed for some locations. Comparisons of the SPI and SPEI at 9- and 12-month time scales, the PDSI and MedPDSI were performed for the same stations and period. SPI and SPEI produce similar results for the same time scales concerning drought occurrence and severity. PDSI and MedPDSI correlate well between them and the same happened for SPI and SPEI. PDSI and MedPDSI identify more severe droughts than SPI or SPEI and identify drought occurrence earlier than these indices. This behaviour is likely to be related with the fact that a water balance is performed with PDSI and MedPDSI, which better approaches the supply-demand balance.

  17. Climate trends and behaviour of drought indices based on precipitation and evapotranspiration in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulo, A. A.; Rosa, R. D.; Pereira, L. S.

    2012-05-01

    Distinction between drought and aridity is crucial to understand water scarcity processes. Drought indices are used for drought identification and drought severity characterisation. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) are the most known drought indices. In this study, they are compared with the modified PDSI for Mediterranean conditions (MedPDSI) and the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). MedPDSI results from the soil water balance of an olive crop, thus real evapotranspiration is considered, while SPEI uses potential (climatic) evapotranspiration. Similarly to the SPI, SPEI can be computed at various time scales. Aiming at understanding possible impacts of climate change, prior to compare the drought indices, a trend analysis relative to precipitation and temperature in 27 weather stations of Portugal was performed for the period 1941 to 2006. A trend for temperature increase was observed for some weather stations and trends for decreasing precipitation in March and increasing in October were also observed for some locations. Comparisons of the SPI and SPEI at 9- and 12-month time scales, the PDSI and MedPDSI were performed for the same stations and period. SPI and SPEI produce similar results for the same time scales concerning drought occurrence and severity. PDSI and MedPDSI correlate well between them and the same happened for SPI and SPEI. PDSI and MedPDSI identify more severe droughts than SPI or SPEI and identify drought occurrence earlier than these indices. This behaviour is likely to be related with the fact that a water balance is performed with PDSI and MedPDSI, which better approaches the supply-demand balance.

  18. Trends over time in tree and seedling phylogenetic diversity indicate regional differences in forest biodiversity change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin M. Potter; Christopher W. Woodall

    2012-01-01

    Changing climate conditions may impact the short-term ability of forest tree species to regenerate in many locations. In the longer term, tree species may be unable to persist in some locations while they become established in new places. Over both time frames, forest tree biodiversity may change in unexpected ways. Using repeated inventory measurements five years...

  19. Incidence of subarachnoid haemorrhage : a systematic review with emphasis on region, age, gender and time trends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Rooij, N. K.; Linn, F. H. H.; van der Plas, J. A.; Algra, A.; Rinkel, G. J. E.

    2007-01-01

    Background and aim: To update our 1996 review on the incidence of subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) and assess the relation of incidence with region, age, gender and time period. Methods: We searched for studies on the incidence of SAH published until October 2005. The overall incidences with

  20. Trends in mammography over time for women with and without chronic disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kurtz, Stephen G; Rao, Sowmya R

    2015-07-01

    Women with disabilities often receive mammograms at lower rates than do nondisabled women, although this disparity varies by disability type and severity. Given the implementation of disability civil rights laws in the early 1990s, we examined whether disability disparities in mammogram use have diminished over time. We analyzed National Health Interview Survey responses of civilian, noninstitutionalized United States female residents 50 to 74 years old from selected years between 1998 and 2010. We identified seven chronic disability types using self-reported functional impairments, activity/participation limitations, and expected duration. We conducted bivariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses examining associations of self-reported mammogram use within the previous two years with sociodemographic factors and disability. Most chronic disability rates rose over time. The most common disability was movement difficulties, with rates increasing from 35.6% (1998) to 39.8% (2010). Mammogram rates for all women remained relatively stable over time, ranging from 72% to 75%. Bivariable analyses generally found statistically significantly lower mammogram rates for women with disability versus nondisabled women. Over time, disparities grew significantly between women with any basic action difficulty or complex activity limitation and nondisabled women (pdisability. Little has changed since 1998 in mammogram rates for women with versus without disabilities. Women with certain disabilities continue to experience disparities in mammography testing.

  1. Incidence and Trends in Psychopathology Symptoms over Time in Adults with Severe to Profound Intellectual Disability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horovitz, Max; Matson, Johnny L.; Sipes, Megan; Shoemaker, Mary; Belva, Brian; Bamburg, Jay W.

    2011-01-01

    Individuals with intellectual disability (ID) have a high risk for developing comorbid psychopathology. While researchers have shown that symptoms of psychopathology remain relatively stable in children with ID over time, little research has been conducted to demonstrate symptom stability for adults with ID. Incidence of psychopathology symptoms…

  2. Spatial and temporal trends in alcohol consumption in Belgian cities: A wastewater-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boogaerts, Tim; Covaci, Adrian; Kinyua, Juliet; Neels, Hugo; van Nuijs, Alexander L N

    2016-03-01

    In recent years, scientific evidence has emerged that wastewater-based epidemiology can deliver complementary information concerning the use of different substances of abuse. In this study, the potential of wastewater-based epidemiology in monitoring spatial and temporal trends in alcohol consumption in different populations in Belgium has been examined. Concentrations of ethyl sulphate, a minor Phase-II metabolite of ethanol, in 163 influent wastewater samples from eight wastewater treatment plants in Belgium in the period 2013-2015 were measured with liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry and used to estimate alcohol consumption. The highest levels of alcohol consumption were detected in the metropoles Antwerp and Brussels compared to smaller villages. Annual variations were detected, with a higher alcohol consumption measured in 2013 compared with 2014. The weekly pattern showed a clear week and weekend difference in alcohol use, with intermediate levels on Monday and Friday. The results were extrapolated and a use of 5.6L pure alcohol per year per inhabitant aged 15+ has been estimated in Belgium. The comparison with available information on drinking habits of the Belgian population further demonstrated the usefulness of the wastewater-based epidemiology approach. This is the largest wastewater-based epidemiology study monitoring alcohol consumption to date, demonstrating that objective and quick information on spatio-temporal trends in alcohol consumption on a local and (inter)national scale can be obtained. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Trends in Pap Testing Over Time for Women With and Without Chronic Disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kurtz, Stephen G; Rao, Sowmya R

    2016-02-01

    Data from 20 years ago--shortly after passage of the Americans with Disabilities Act--showed that women with significant mobility disability had 40% lower Pap test rates than other women. To examine whether disability disparities in Pap test rates have diminished over time, this study analyzed National Health Interview Survey responses from selected years between 1998 and 2010 from women aged 21-65 years without histories of cervical cancer or hysterectomy. Seven chronic disability types were identified using self-reported functional impairments or participation limitations. Self-reported Pap testing within the previous 3 years was studied. Bivariable analyses and multivariable logistic regression analyses controlling for sociodemographic variables were conducted in 2014. Rates of all chronic disability types increased over time. Pap test rates remained relatively constant over time for all women, holding around 84%-87%. Bivariable analyses found statistically significantly lower rates of Pap testing for women with disability compared with nondisabled women. Multivariable analyses failed to find consistent evidence of lower Pap test rates among women across disability types compared with nondisabled women. In 2010, the AOR for reporting Pap testing for women noting the most severe movement difficulty compared with nondisabled women was 0.35 (95% CI=0.15, 0.79). However, the AOR for this disability type varied over time. Little has changed over time in Pap test rates for all women. Women with certain disabilities continue to experience disparities compared with nondisabled women in receipt of this important screening test. Copyright © 2016 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Trend extraction of rail corrugation measured dynamically based on the relevant low-frequency principal components reconstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yanfu; Liu, Hongli; Ma, Ziji

    2016-01-01

    Rail corrugation dynamic measurement techniques are critical to guarantee transport security and guide rail maintenance. During the inspection process, low-frequency trends caused by rail fluctuation are usually superimposed on rail corrugation and seriously affect the assessment of rail maintenance quality. In order to extract and remove the nonlinear and non-stationary trends from original mixed signals, a hybrid model based ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and modified principal component analysis (MPCA) is proposed in this paper. Compared with the existing de-trending methods based on EMD, this method first considers low-frequency intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) thought to be underlying trend components that maybe contain some unrelated components, such as white noise and low-frequency signal itself, and proposes to use PCA to accurately extract the pure trends from the IMFs containing multiple components. On the other hand, due to the energy contribution ratio between trends and mixed signals is prior unknown, and the principal components (PCs) decomposed by PCA are arranged in order of energy reduction without considering frequency distribution, the proposed method modifies traditional PCA and just selects relevant low-frequency PCs to reconstruct the trends based on the zero-crossing numbers (ZCN) of each PC. Extensive tests are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show the proposed EEMD-PCA-ZCN is an effective tool for trend extraction of rail corrugation measured dynamically. (paper)

  5. Workforce Cross Training: A Re-Emerging Trend in Tough Times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrams, Carmen; Berge, Zane

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims to explore advantages, disadvantages, advice and concerns regarding workforce cross training practices, as well as examples of businesses and organizations that have successfully implemented cross training programs. Design/methodology/approach: This article is a general review, based on the literature available and the…

  6. Helicobacter pylori antibiotic resistance in a Dutch region: trends over time.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, M.J.R.; Hendrikse, L.; Boer, S.Y. de; Bosboom, R.; Boer, W.A. de; Laheij, R.J.F.; Jansen, J.B.M.J.

    2006-01-01

    AIM: Most patients treated for H. pylori infection receive empirical therapy based on epidemiological data of antibiotic resistance. However, previous European studies indicate that resistance patterns may be changing. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of primary

  7. Time trends in primary-care morbidity, hospitalization and mortality due to pneumonia.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gageldonk-Lafeber, A.B. van; Bogaerts, M.A.H.; Verheij, R.; Sande, M.A.B. van der

    2009-01-01

    Most studies reporting pneumonia morbidity are restricted to hospitalized patients, although only a minority of pneumonia patients are admitted to hospital. To get a better understanding of the burden of disease in the general population, we conducted a population-based retrospective study to

  8. Time trends in the incidence of eating disorders : A primary care study in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Son, Gabrielle E.; van Hoeken, Daphne; Bartelds, Aad I. M.; van Furth, Eric F.; Hoek, Hans W.

    2006-01-01

    Objective: This Dutch epidemiological study used primary care-based data to examine changes in the incidence of eating disorders in the 1990s compared to the 1980s. Method: A nationwide network of general practitioners, serving a representative sample of the total Dutch population, recorded newly

  9. Selection bias due to parity-conditioning in studies of time trends in fertility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sallmén, Markku; Bonde, Jens Peter; Lindbohm, Marja-Liisa

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Studies of couple fertility over time have often examined study populations with broad age ranges at a cross-section of time. An increase in fertility has been observed in studies that followed episodes of fertility events either prospectively among nulliparous women or retrospectively....... METHODS: A study with prospective follow-up was taken as the model to assess the validity of fertility studies. We demonstrate the potential for selection bias using causal graphs and nationwide birth statistics and other demographic data. We tested the existence of parity-conditioning bias in data......-conditioning varies by sampling frame. A prospective multidecade study with representative sampling of birth cohorts and follow-up from menarche to menopause would bypass the described bias....

  10. Time-trend of melanoma screening practice by primary care physicians: A meta-regression analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Valachis, Antonis; Mauri, Davide; Karampoiki, Vassiliki; Polyzos, Nikolaos P; Cortinovis, Ivan; Koukourakis, Georgios; Zacharias, Georgios; Xilomenos, Apostolos; Tsappi, Maria; Casazza, Giovanni

    2009-01-01

    Objective To assess whether the proportion of primary care physicians implementing full body skin examination (FBSE) to screen for melanoma changed over time. Methods Meta-regression analyses of available data. Data Sources: MEDLINE, ISI, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Results Fifteen studies surveying 10,336 physicians were included in the analyses. Overall, 15%?82% of them reported to perform FBSE to screen for melanoma. The proportion of physicians using FBSE screening ten...

  11. Future Scenarios of Land Change Based on Empirical Data and Demographic Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason T.

    2017-11-01

    Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001-2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr-1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

  12. Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason

    2017-01-01

    Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr−1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

  13. Time-Trends and Congener Profiles of PBDEs and PCBs in California Peregrine Falcons (Falco peregrinus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, June-Soo; Holden, Arthur; Chu, Vivian; Kim, Michele; Rhee, Alexandra; Patel, Puja; Shi, Yating; Linthicum, Janet; Walton, Brian J.; Mckeown, Karen; Jewell, Nicholas P.; Hooper, Kim

    2010-01-01

    High levels (µg/g lw) of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were measured in peregrine falcon eggs from California (n = 90 eggs from 52 birds, 38 nest sites, collected 1986–2007, ΣPBDEs median = 4.53, range = 0.08–53.1). Over the past 22 years, PBDE levels more than tripled each decade in the eggs, whereas PCB levels had no significant changes. PBDE levels were highest in eggs from major California cities (“Big Cities”), whereas PCBs showed no difference across the regions. For PBDEs, Big City eggs had markedly different patterns from Coastal eggs:BDE-209 and the higher brominated PBDEs (hexa–nona) were dominant congeners in Big City eggs, while BDE-47 and -99 were dominant in Coastal eggs. In many of the birds that gave multiple eggs over time (“time series”), PBDE patterns changed over time: the high proportions of BDE-209 and higher brominated PBDEs (short half-lives) in young birds contrasted with increasingly higher proportions of BDE-153 (long half-life) and other lower brominated PBDEs as the birds aged. These data are consistent with metabolic debromination of BDE-209 (t1/2 = 1–2 weeks) to the lower brominated PBDEs, with accumulation over time of BDE-153 (t1/2 = 3–4 years). In contrast, PCB patterns showed no differences by locations, and did not change over time. Diet (prey birds) may explain the urban PBDE pattern, as the patterns in urban pigeons and peregrines were similar, with high proportions of BDE-209 and the higher-brominated PBDEs. Also, our prey data (feathers from peregrine nests) showed urban peregrines having a higher proportion (>2 fold) of granivorous/opportunistic birds (e.g., “introduced feral” pigeons, mourning doves, starlings) in their diet than coastal peregrines. In summary, these data indicate that BDE-209 exits consumer products as an environmental contaminant to be taken up by wildlife (particularly in urban locations), and undergoes metabolic debromination to the

  14. Time trends and sex differences in associations between socioeconomic status indicators and overweight-obesity in Mexico (2006-2012).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quezada, Amado D; Lozada-Tequeanes, Ana L

    2015-12-16

    Although the associations between specific socioeconomic status (SES) indicators and overweight or obesity (OWOB) have been studied in different countries, fewer evidence exists for these associations when multiple SES indicators are considered simultaneously. Furthermore, there are few studies investigating time trends in OWOB and their relation with SES in upper-middle income countries, especially for men. The present study contributes to a better understanding of the nature and evolution of the associations between SES indicators and OWOB in the Mexican adult population. We pooled data from the 2006 and 2012 National Health and Nutrition Surveys in Mexico and obtained covariate-adjusted prevalence from a design-based logistic multiple regression model. Covariates included a wealth index, education, occupational status, marital status, and all interactions for each covariate with sex (male/female) and survey year. For men, the association between wealth and OWOB remained positive in general but curvature was more evident in 2012. The wealth-OWOB association in women showed an inverted-U pattern at both years with a positive slope that turned into a negative one as wealth increased. Among women, OWOB prevalence at the college/university education level was approximately 12.0 ± 2.4 (percentage points ± standard error) lower compared with the elementary education level. We did not find differences between educational categories for men in 2006, but in 2012 OWOB tended to be higher among the more educated. The prevalence of obesity in women increased at wealth levels from the middle and upper-middle section of the wealth distributions. Overall OWOB prevalence was near 70 % in 2012 for both sexes. Among Mexican women, the associations between SES indicators and excess body weight were consistent to those found in developed countries. Among Mexican men, higher education was not associated with a lower prevalence of OWOB but the positive association between

  15. Trends in Average Living Children at the Time of Terminal Contraception: A Time Series Analysis Over 27 Years Using ARIMA (p, d, q) Nonseasonal Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumbare, Sachin S; Gosavi, Shriram; Almale, Balaji; Patil, Aruna; Dhakane, Supriya; Kadu, Aniruddha

    2014-10-01

    India's National Family Welfare Programme is dominated by sterilization, particularly tubectomy. Sterilization, being a terminal method of contraception, decides the final number of children for that couple. Many studies have shown the declining trend in the average number of living children at the time of sterilization over a short period of time. So this study was planned to do time series analysis of the average children at the time of terminal contraception, to do forecasting till 2020 for the same and to compare the rates of change in various subgroups of the population. Data was preprocessed in MS Access 2007 by creating and running SQL queries. After testing stationarity of every series with augmented Dickey-Fuller test, time series analysis and forecasting was done using best-fit Box-Jenkins ARIMA (p, d, q) nonseasonal model. To compare the rates of change of average children in various subgroups, at sterilization, analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was applied. Forecasting showed that the replacement level of 2.1 total fertility rate (TFR) will be achieved in 2018 for couples opting for sterilization. The same will be achieved in 2020, 2016, 2018, and 2019 for rural area, urban area, Hindu couples, and Buddhist couples, respectively. It will not be achieved till 2020 in Muslim couples. Every stratum of population showed the declining trend. The decline for male children and in rural area was significantly faster than the decline for female children and in urban area, respectively. The decline was not significantly different in Hindu, Muslim, and Buddhist couples.

  16. Trends in average living children at the time of terminal contraception: A time series analysis over 27 years using ARIMA (p, d, q nonseasonal model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sachin S Mumbare

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: India′s National Family Welfare Programme is dominated by sterilization, particularly tubectomy. Sterilization, being a terminal method of contraception, decides the final number of children for that couple. Many studies have shown the declining trend in the average number of living children at the time of sterilization over a short period of time. So this study was planned to do time series analysis of the average children at the time of terminal contraception, to do forecasting till 2020 for the same and to compare the rates of change in various subgroups of the population. Materials and Methods: Data was preprocessed in MS Access 2007 by creating and running SQL queries. After testing stationarity of every series with augmented Dickey-Fuller test, time series analysis and forecasting was done using best-fit Box-Jenkins ARIMA (p, d, q nonseasonal model. To compare the rates of change of average children in various subgroups, at sterilization, analysis of covariance (ANCOVA was applied. Results: Forecasting showed that the replacement level of 2.1 total fertility rate (TFR will be achieved in 2018 for couples opting for sterilization. The same will be achieved in 2020, 2016, 2018, and 2019 for rural area, urban area, Hindu couples, and Buddhist couples, respectively. It will not be achieved till 2020 in Muslim couples. Conclusion: Every stratum of population showed the declining trend. The decline for male children and in rural area was significantly faster than the decline for female children and in urban area, respectively. The decline was not significantly different in Hindu, Muslim, and Buddhist couples.

  17. Seven-year time trends in energy balance-related behaviours according to educational level and ethnic background among 14-year-old adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meijerink, Frederika J; van Vuuren, C Leontine; Wijnhoven, Hanneke A H; van Eijsden, Manon

    2016-04-01

    To assess seven-year time trends in energy balance-related behaviours in 14-year-old adolescents living in an urban area and to examine the influence of educational level and ethnicity on these time trends. Second grade students (mean age 13·6 years) filled in questionnaires about the energy balance-related behaviours of breakfast consumption, fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity and screen-time behaviour from school years 2006-2007 to 2012-2013. Energy balance-related behaviours were dichotomized and logistic regression analyses were used to examine time trends in healthy energy balance-related behaviours, including interaction terms for educational level and ethnicity. Secondary schools in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Per school year, 2185-3331 children participated. The total sample included 19 244 students of Dutch, Surinamese, Turkish and Moroccan ethnic background. A significant linear increase was found for positive screen-time behaviour (Time trends in screen time were significantly different across educational levels (P-interaction=0·002) and ethnic backgrounds (Ptime trends in daily fruit consumption (P=0·017 and P=0·018, respectively) and, for ethnicity, trends in daily vegetable consumption (Ptime behaviour is a positive finding. However, discouraging screen time and promoting other healthy behaviours, more specifically daily fruit and vegetable consumption, remain important particularly among adolescents enrolled in pre-vocational education and of non-Dutch ethnic background.

  18. Model-based auralizations of violin sound trends accompanying plate-bridge tuning or holding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bissinger, George; Mores, Robert

    2015-04-01

    To expose systematic trends in violin sound accompanying "tuning" only the plates or only the bridge, the first structural acoustics-based model auralizations of violin sound were created by passing a bowed-string driving force measured at the bridge of a solid body violin through the dynamic filter (DF) model radiativity profile "filter" RDF(f) (frequency-dependent pressure per unit driving force, free-free suspension, anechoic chamber). DF model auralizations for the more realistic case of a violin held/played in a reverberant auditorium reveal that holding the violin greatly diminishes its low frequency response, an effect only weakly compensated for by auditorium reverberation.

  19. Study on homogenization of synthetic GNSS-retrieved IWV time series and its impact on trend estimates with autoregressive noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klos, Anna; Pottiaux, Eric; Van Malderen, Roeland; Bock, Olivier; Bogusz, Janusz

    2017-04-01

    A synthetic benchmark dataset of Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) was created within the activity of "Data homogenisation" of sub-working group WG3 of COST ES1206 Action. The benchmark dataset was created basing on the analysis of IWV differences retrieved by Global Positioning System (GPS) International GNSS Service (IGS) stations using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecats (ECMWF) reanalysis data (ERA-Interim). Having analysed a set of 120 series of IWV differences (ERAI-GPS) derived for IGS stations, we delivered parameters of a number of gaps and breaks for every certain station. Moreover, we estimated values of trends, significant seasonalities and character of residuals when deterministic model was removed. We tested five different noise models and found that a combination of white and autoregressive processes of first order describes the stochastic part with a good accuracy. Basing on this analysis, we performed Monte Carlo simulations of 25 years long data with two different types of noise: white as well as combination of white and autoregressive processes. We also added few strictly defined offsets, creating three variants of synthetic dataset: easy, less-complicated and fully-complicated. The 'Easy' dataset included seasonal signals (annual, semi-annual, 3 and 4 months if present for a particular station), offsets and white noise. The 'Less-complicated' dataset included above-mentioned, as well as the combination of white and first order autoregressive processes (AR(1)+WH). The 'Fully-complicated' dataset included, beyond above, a trend and gaps. In this research, we show the impact of manual homogenisation on the estimates of trend and its error. We also cross-compare the results for three above-mentioned datasets, as the synthetized noise type might have a significant influence on manual homogenisation. Therefore, it might mostly affect the values of trend and their uncertainties when inappropriately handled. In a future, the synthetic dataset

  20. Long-term time trends in human intake of POPs in the Czech Republic indicate a need for continuous monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bányiová, Katarína; Černá, Milena; Mikeš, Ondřej; Komprdová, Klára; Sharma, Anežka; Gyalpo, Tenzing; Čupr, Pavel; Scheringer, Martin

    2017-11-01

    Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) from the group of persistent organic pollutants are detected in human tissues years or even decades after their ban. Exposure to PCBs and OCPs can pose risks to human health. In the present study, we calculated the daily intakes of PCBs and OCPs in the Czech population and investigated the long-term trends of human exposure to POPs. Data on POP concentrations from a 16-year period of breast-milk monitoring were used. A toxicokinetic model with consideration of compound-specific elimination half-lives was used to calculate the mothers' daily intake of PCBs and OCPs representing the intake of POPs by all exposure routes. The calculated intakes were compared with dietary intakes calculated by the Czech National Institute of Public Health. The comparison shows good agreement of both intake estimates with decreasing intake trends of POPs in the Czech population in the time period studied. However, several fluctuations with peaks of higher levels were observed in both datasets which are not typical for the period after the ban of use and production of POPs. The available evidence suggests that the increases in chemical concentrations might be caused by food contamination. The calculated intakes of compounds with longer elimination half-lives, such as higher-chlorinated PCBs, were higher in older mothers. This "memory effect" was already observed in other studies and indicates higher exposure in earlier life periods of the mother. Our results suggest that exposure to POPs is still relevant for the Czech population in the period after the ban of the use and production of POPs (post-ban period), especially via food ingestion, though the intake trends are decreasing. Possible food contamination by POPs in the post-ban period requires further assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Time trends for prostate cancer mortality in Brazil and its geographic regions: An age-period-cohort analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braga, Sonia Faria Mendes; de Souza, Mirian Carvalho; Cherchiglia, Mariangela Leal

    2017-10-01

    In the 1980s, an increase in mortality rates for prostate cancer was observed in North America and developed European countries. In the 1990s, however, mortality rates decreased for these countries, an outcome related to early detection of the disease. Conversely, an upward trend in mortality rates was observed in Brazil. This study describe the trends in mortality for prostate cancer in Brazil and geographic regions (North, Northeast, South, Southeast, and Central-West) between 1980 until 2014 and analyze the influence of age, period, and cohort effects on mortality rates. This time-series study used data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and population data from Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The effects on mortality rates were examined using age-period-cohort (APC) models. Crude and standardized mortality rates showed an upward trend for Brazil and its regions more than 2-fold the last 30 years. Age effects showed an increased risk of death in all regions. Period effects showed a higher risk of death in the finals periods for the North and Northeast. Cohort effects showed risk of death was higher for younger than older generations in Brazil and regions, mainly Northeast (RR Adjusted =3.12, 95% CI 1.29-1.41; RR Adjusted =0.28, 95% CI 0.26-0.30, respectively). The increase in prostate cancer mortality rates in Brazil and its regions was mainly due to population aging. The differences in mortality rates and APC effects between regions are related to demographic differences and access of health services across the country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Annoyance and Worry in a Petrochemical Industrial Area—Prevalence, Time Trends and Risk Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lars Barregard

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available In 1992, 1998, and 2006, questionnaires were sent to stratified samples of residents aged 18–75 years living near petrochemical industries (n = 600–800 people on each occasion and in a control area (n = 200–1,000. The aims were to estimate the long-term prevalence and change over time of annoyance caused by industrial odour, industrial noise, and worries about possible health effects, and to identify risk indicators. In 2006, 20% were annoyed by industrial odour, 27% by industrial noise (1–4% in the control area, and 40–50% were worried about health effects or industrial accidents (10–20% in the control area. Multiple logistic regression analyses revealed significantly lower prevalence of odour annoyance in 1998 and 2006 than in 1992, while industrial noise annoyance increased significantly over time. The prevalence of worry remained constant. Risk of odour annoyance increased with female sex, worry of health effects, annoyance by motor vehicle exhausts and industrial noise. Industrial noise annoyance was associated with traffic noise annoyance and worry of health effects of traffic. Health-risk worry due to industrial air pollution was associated with female sex, having children, annoyance due to dust/soot in the air, and worry of traffic air pollution.

  3. Trends and advances in food analysis by real-time polymerase chain reaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salihah, Nur Thaqifah; Hossain, Mohammad Mosharraf; Lubis, Hamadah; Ahmed, Minhaz Uddin

    2016-05-01

    Analyses to ensure food safety and quality are more relevant now because of rapid changes in the quantity, diversity and mobility of food. Food-contamination must be determined to maintain health and up-hold laws, as well as for ethical and cultural concerns. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), a rapid and inexpensive quantitative method to detect the presence of targeted DNA-segments in samples, helps in determining both accidental and intentional adulterations of foods by biological contaminants. This review presents recent developments in theory, techniques, and applications of RT-PCR in food analyses, RT-PCR addresses the limitations of traditional food analyses in terms of sensitivity, range of analytes, multiplexing ability, cost, time, and point-of-care applications. A range of targets, including species of plants or animals which are used as food ingredients, food-borne bacteria or viruses, genetically modified organisms, and allergens, even in highly processed foods can be identified by RT-PCR, even at very low concentrations. Microfluidic RT-PCR eliminates the separate sample-processing step to create opportunities for point-of-care analyses. We also cover the challenges related to using RT-PCR for food analyses, such as the need to further improve sample handling.

  4. Assessment of systemic inflammation by time-trends of blood granulocyte count and plasma myeloperoxidase and elastase concentrations following colic surgery in horses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salciccia, Alexandra; Grulke, Sigrid; de la Rebière de Pouyade, Geoffroy; Franck, Thierry; Detilleux, Johann; Serteyn, Didier; Sandersen, Charlotte

    2016-07-01

    To determine changes in blood granulocyte counts and in plasma myeloperoxidase (MPO) and elastase (ELT) concentrations in surgical colic cases, and to determine the relationship between these changes and the surgical procedure performed, occurrence of postoperative ileus, and final outcome. Prospective clinical study conducted over a 12-month period. University teaching hospital. Fifty-three horses undergoing emergency laparotomy and surviving at least 12 hours postoperatively. Blood samples were taken before surgery, during surgery, at the recovery from anesthesia, and then serially until the 150th hour after the first blood sampling. Granulocyte counts were performed by an automated cell hematology analyzer. Specific ELISAs were performed for the MPO and ELT measurements. Mixed models were used to compare the time-trends of the 3 parameters. Taking all horses together, the time-trends of MPO and ELT were not significantly different from each other, but they were significantly different from the granulocyte time-trend. The type of surgical procedure did not influence the time-trends of the 3 parameters. Significant changes in the granulocyte time-trends were associated with postoperative ileus and outcome. Significant changes in the MPO time-trends were associated with outcome. The ELT time-trends were not influenced by ileus or outcome. Granulocyte counts and MPO change over time and are related to the severity of the inflammatory reaction in surgical colic cases. These time-trends may allow evaluation of treatment efficacy in an effort to modulate excessive granulocyte activation and degranulation. © Veterinary Emergency and Critical Care Society 2016.

  5. Identification of Trend in Spatial and Temporal Dry and Wet Periods in Northwest of Iran Based on SPI and RAI Indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Majid Montaseri

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Droughts are natural extreme phenomena, which frequently occur around the world. This phenomenon can occur in any region, but its effects will be more severe in arid and semi-arid regions. Several studies have highlighted the increasing of droughts trend around the world. The majority of studies in assessing the trend of time series are based on basic Mann-Kendall or Spearman's methods and no serious attention has been paid to the impact of autocorrelation coefficient on time series. However, limited numbers of studies have included the lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient and its impacts on the time series trend. The aim of this study was to investigate the trend of dry and wet periods in northwest of Iran using Mann-Kendall trend test with removing all significant autocorrelations coefficients based on SPI and RAI drought indices. Materials and Methods: Study area has a region of 334,000 square kilometers, with wet, arid and semiarid climate, located in the northwest of Iran. The rainfall data were collected from 39 synoptic stations with average rainfall of 146 mm as the minimum of Gom station, and the highest annual rainfall of 1687 mm, in the Bandaranzali station. In this study, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI and Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI were used for trend analysis of dry and wet periods. SPI was developed by McKee et al. in 1993 to determine and monitor droughts. This index is able to determine the wet and dry situations for a specific time scale for each location using rainfall data. RAI index was developed by Van Rooy in 1965 to calculate the deviation of rainfall from the normal amount of rainfall and it evaluates monthly or annual rainfall on a linear scale resulting from a data series. Then, correlation coefficients of time series of these drought indices with different lags were determined for check the dependence or independence of the SPI and RAI values. Finally, based on dependence or independence of the time

  6. Real-time GPS Satellite Clock Error Prediction Based On No-stationary Time Series Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Q.; Xu, G.; Wang, F.

    2009-04-01

    Analysis Centers of the IGS provide precise satellite ephemeris for GPS data post-processing. The accuracy of orbit products is better than 5cm, and that of the satellite clock errors (SCE) approaches 0.1ns (igscb.jpl.nasa.gov), which can meet with the requirements of precise point positioning (PPP). Due to the 13 day-latency of the IGS final products, only the broadcast ephemeris and IGS ultra rapid products (predicted) are applicable for real time PPP (RT-PPP). Therefore, development of an approach to estimate high precise GPS SCE in real time is of particular importance for RT-PPP. Many studies have been carried out for forecasting the corrections using models, such as Linear Model (LM), Quadratic Polynomial Model (QPM), Quadratic Polynomial Model with Cyclic corrected Terms (QPM+CT), Grey Model (GM) and Kalman Filter Model (KFM), etc. However, the precisions of these models are generally in nanosecond level. The purpose of this study is to develop a method using which SCE forecasting for RT-PPP can be reached with a precision of sub-nanosecond. Analysis of the last 8 years IGS SCE data shown that predicted precision depend on the stability of the individual satellite clock. The clocks of the most recent GPS satellites (BLOCK IIR and BLOCK IIR-M) are more stable than that of the former GPS satellites (BLOCK IIA). For the stable satellite clock, the next 6 hours SCE can be easily predict with LM. The residuals of unstable satellite clocks are periodic ones with noise components. Dominant periods of residuals are found by using Fourier Transform and Spectrum Analysis. For the rest part of the residuals, an auto-regression model is used to determine their systematic trends. Summarized from this study, a no-stationary time series model can be proposed to predict GPS SCE in real time. This prediction model includes: linear term, cyclic corrected terms and auto-regression term, which are used to represent SCE trend, cyclic parts and rest of the errors, respectively

  7. Persistent organic pollutants in human milk from central Italy: levels and time trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerranti, Cristiana; Palmieri, Michela; Mariottini, Michela; Focardi, Silvano Ettore

    2011-01-01

    Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) such as HCB, p,p'-DDE, and PCBs were measured in Italian breast milk. This work is part of a study on human milk, adipose tissues, and food carried out in the same area over the last 20 years. The results showed the prevalence of p,p'-DDE and PCBs over HCB. Comparison of our results with those of previous studies carried out in the same area showed that concentrations are decreasing. No statistically significant differences in organochlorine levels were found when the samples were divided into maternal age classes and into the categories "primiparae" and "multiparae". In order to quantify the amount of the molecules of interest transmitted by mother to child during breast feeding, we estimated the daily intake of each class of compounds: our results indicated that HCB and p,p'-DDE were several times lower than the safety thresholds.

  8. Time-space trends in Swedish divorce behaviour, 1911-1974.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandström, Glenn

    2011-01-01

    This study examines how the divorce rates in Sweden have varied over time and across different geographical areas during the period 1911-1974, and how these variations can be connected to the political, socio-economic and cultural development in Sweden. The analysis provides empirical support for the hypothesis that increased divorce rates have been the result of changes in the structural conditions that determine the degree of economic interdependence between spouses. There is a strong connection between the degree of urbanization and the divorce rate on a regional level for the entire research period. The statistical analysis of the regional data indicates that these patterns are connected to the more diversified economy that has developed in urban settings, in the form of a more qualified labour market and higher wages for females. These characteristics resulted in a faster and more pronounced reduction of economic interdependence between spouses, which made divorce more attainable in these areas as compared with rural settings.

  9. Time trends in peptic ulcer, erosive reflux oesophagitis, gastric and oesophageal cancers in a multiracial Asian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goh, K-L; Wong, H-T; Lim, C-H; Rosaida, M S

    2009-04-01

    Dramatic changes in the prevalence and pattern of gastrointestinal disease has taken place in Asia in recent years. To compare the prevalence of duodenal (DU) and gastric ulcers (GU), erosive oesophagitis (EO), gastric cancer (GCA) and oesophageal cancer (OCA) and Helicobacter pylori infection over a 10-year interval of time in a multiracial South-East Asian population. Endoscopy records of first time gastroscopy in the University of Malaya Medical Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia were reviewed for 1989/1990 and 1999/2000. In the period of 1989-1990, 3252 records and in 1999-2000, 4615 records were analysed. Both DU (21.1-9.5%) and GU (11.9-9.4%) had decreased significantly (P < 0.001). EO had increased significantly from 2.0% to 8.4% (P < 0.001). Both GCA and OCA had declined in the 10-year interval. Helicobacter pylori prevalence had decreased from 51.7% to 30.3% (P < 0.001).The decrease in DU and GU was seen in all racial groups. The increase in EO was most marked in Indians and the decrease in GCA in Chinese. The proportion of H. pylori-associated DU and GU had also decreased with time. Peptic ulcers and H. pylori infection had declined over a 10-year period of time and showed an opposing time trend with EO, which had increased dramatically. Both GCA and OCA had declined in prevalence.

  10. Interpreting time trends and biomagnification of PCBs in the Baltic region using the equilibrium lipid partitioning approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nfon, Erick; Cousins, Ian T.

    2006-01-01

    Multi-year monitoring data for PCBs in abiotic media and biota collected from the Baltic region were compiled into a database and analyzed using the equilibrium lipid partitioning (ELP) approach to study temporal trends as well as to investigate food web biomagnification. Statistically significant reductions in ELP concentrations between 1987 and 2001 were observed in guillemots, air, and some fish species and a general, but not always statistically significant decline in concentrations was observed throughout the Baltic ecosystem. Estimated clearance half-lives ranged from 2.7-10.7 years. The database contained concentrations for a range of different Baltic species, which comprise a well-known Baltic food web. It was possible to derive the trophic position of the species in this food web and relate them to ELP concentrations. A significant positive correlation between ELP concentrations and trophic position was obtained. Estimated food web magnification factors ranged between 1.9 and 5.1 for selected congeners. - The equilibrium lipid partitioning approach is applied to a large Baltic database of PCB concentrations in abiotic and biota media to investigate time trends and biomagnification

  11. Time trends in hospital admissions and mortality due to abdominal aortic aneurysms in France, 2002-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert, M; Juillière, Y; Gabet, A; Kownator, S; Olié, V

    2017-05-01

    Abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) are serious disease with a high fatality rate but recent epidemiologic data showed a decrease of AAA mortality. Our objective was to estimate, in France, the hospitalization, inhospital mortality and mortality rates due to AAA and to analyze their trends over time. Hospitalization data were extracted from the hospital discharge summaries in the national database between 2002 and 2013. The analysis covered all patients hospitalized for AAA as a principal diagnosis. During the same period, all death certificates mentioning AAA as an initial cause of death were included in the study. Crude and standardized rates were calculated according to age and sex. Poisson regression was used to analyze the average annual percent change. In 2013, there were 8853 patients hospitalized for AAA in France (7986 unruptured and 867 ruptured). Between 2002 and 2013, the rate of patients hospitalized for unruptured AAA decreased slightly in men (-5.0%) but increased in women (+5.2%). By contrast, the rate of patients hospitalized for ruptured AAA has decreased by >20% in men and women. The proportion of endovascular treatment of unruptured AAA rose from <10% in 2005 to 35% in women and 40% in men in 2013. In 2013, 939 deaths from AAA were recorded. Mortality for this disease declined significantly from 2002 to 2013 in men and women. The unfavorable epidemiological trends in women and important evolution of the management of AAA call for an epidemiological surveillance of this disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Estimated and forecasted trends in domain specific time-use and energy expenditure among adults in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Examination of historical trends and projections in estimated energy expenditure in Russia is important given the country’s economic downturns and growth. Methods Nationally representative data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) from 1995–2011 was used to determine the metabolic equivalents of task (MET)-hours per week from occupational, domestic, travel, and active leisure physical activity (PA) domains, as well as sedentary leisure time (hours per week) among adults 18–60 years. Additionally, we projected what these values would be like in 2020 and 2030 if observed trends continue. Results Among male adults, the largest contributor to total PA was occupational PA followed by travel PA. In contrast, domestic PA followed by occupational PA contributed most to total PA among female adults. Total PA was 282.9 MET-hours per week in 1995 and declined to 231.7 in 2011. Total PA is projected to decrease to 216.5 MET-hours per week in 2020 and to 193.0 MET-hours per week in 2030. The greatest relative declines are occurring in travel PA. Female adults are also exhibiting significant declines in domestic PA. Changes in occupational and active leisure PA are less distinct. Conclusions Policies and initiatives are needed to counteract the long-term decline of overall physical activity linked with a modernizing lifestyle and economy among Russian adults. PMID:24475868

  13. Estimated and forecasted trends in domain specific time-use and energy expenditure among adults in Russia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dearth-Wesley, Tracy; Popkin, Barry M; Ng, Shu Wen

    2014-01-30

    Examination of historical trends and projections in estimated energy expenditure in Russia is important given the country's economic downturns and growth. Nationally representative data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) from 1995-2011 was used to determine the metabolic equivalents of task (MET)-hours per week from occupational, domestic, travel, and active leisure physical activity (PA) domains, as well as sedentary leisure time (hours per week) among adults 18-60 years. Additionally, we projected what these values would be like in 2020 and 2030 if observed trends continue. Among male adults, the largest contributor to total PA was occupational PA followed by travel PA. In contrast, domestic PA followed by occupational PA contributed most to total PA among female adults. Total PA was 282.9 MET-hours per week in 1995 and declined to 231.7 in 2011. Total PA is projected to decrease to 216.5 MET-hours per week in 2020 and to 193.0 MET-hours per week in 2030. The greatest relative declines are occurring in travel PA. Female adults are also exhibiting significant declines in domestic PA. Changes in occupational and active leisure PA are less distinct. Policies and initiatives are needed to counteract the long-term decline of overall physical activity linked with a modernizing lifestyle and economy among Russian adults.

  14. Assessment and prediction of road accident injuries trend using time-series models in Kurdistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parvareh, Maryam; Karimi, Asrin; Rezaei, Satar; Woldemichael, Abraha; Nili, Sairan; Nouri, Bijan; Nasab, Nader Esmail

    2018-01-01

    Road traffic accidents are commonly encountered incidents that can cause high-intensity injuries to the victims and have direct impacts on the members of the society. Iran has one of the highest incident rates of road traffic accidents. The objective of this study was to model the patterns of road traffic accidents leading to injury in Kurdistan province, Iran. A time-series analysis was conducted to characterize and predict the frequency of road traffic accidents that lead to injury in Kurdistan province. The injuries were categorized into three separate groups which were related to the car occupants, motorcyclists and pedestrian road traffic accident injuries. The Box-Jenkins time-series analysis was used to model the injury observations applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) from March 2009 to February 2015 and to predict the accidents up to 24 months later (February 2017). The analysis was carried out using R-3.4.2 statistical software package. A total of 5199 pedestrians, 9015 motorcyclists, and 28,906 car occupants' accidents were observed. The mean (SD) number of car occupant, motorcyclist and pedestrian accident injuries observed were 401.01 (SD 32.78), 123.70 (SD 30.18) and 71.19 (SD 17.92) per year, respectively. The best models for the pattern of car occupant, motorcyclist, and pedestrian injuries were the ARIMA (1, 0, 0), SARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 0, 0) 12 , and SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1) 12 , respectively. The motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries showed a seasonal pattern and the peak was during summer (August). The minimum frequency for the motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries were observed during the late autumn and early winter (December and January). Our findings revealed that the observed motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries had a seasonal pattern that was explained by air temperature changes overtime. These findings call the need for close monitoring of the

  15. Chaos Time Series Prediction Based on Membrane Optimization Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper puts forward a prediction model based on membrane computing optimization algorithm for chaos time series; the model optimizes simultaneously the parameters of phase space reconstruction (τ,m and least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM (γ,σ by using membrane computing optimization algorithm. It is an important basis for spectrum management to predict accurately the change trend of parameters in the electromagnetic environment, which can help decision makers to adopt an optimal action. Then, the model presented in this paper is used to forecast band occupancy rate of frequency modulation (FM broadcasting band and interphone band. To show the applicability and superiority of the proposed model, this paper will compare the forecast model presented in it with conventional similar models. The experimental results show that whether single-step prediction or multistep prediction, the proposed model performs best based on three error measures, namely, normalized mean square error (NMSE, root mean square error (RMSE, and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE.

  16. Who is using snus? - Time trends, socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of snus users in the ageing Swedish population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norberg Margareta

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The prevalence of smoking in Sweden has decreased in recent decades, and is now among the lowest in the world. During the same period, the use of Swedish moist oral snuff, a smokeless tobacco called snus, has increased. Few studies have evaluated time trends of the socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of snus users in Sweden. This paper contributes to filling that gap. Methods This study utilized the Linnaeus Database, which links national registers with comprehensive individual data on socioeconomic status (SES to health data from a large ongoing health survey, the Västerbotten Intervention Programme (VIP. The VIP targets the entire middle-aged population of Västerbotten county at ages 40, 50 and 60 years with yearly cross-sectional surveys including self-reported data on tobacco habits. Time trends of snus use among 92,563 VIP-participants across different areas of residence and smoking groups were investigated graphically. Logistic regression was performed to estimate the associations between SES and geographical variables and current use versus non-use of snus. Results Overall, in parallel to decreasing smoking, the increasing trend of snus use in this middle-aged population continues, particularly in 40-year-olds. In both genders, the highest prevalence of snus use was observed among previous smokers. The prevalence of snus use also increased over time among smokers, and was consistently higher compared to those who had never smoked. Among males - both those who had never smoked and previous smokers - low education (OR 1.21, 95%CI 1.06-1.40 and OR 1.28, 95%CI 1.14-1.43, living alone (OR 1.16, 95%CI 1.07-1.27 and OR 1.13, 95%ci 1.04-1.23, low income and living in rural areas was associated with using snus, while this was not seen among male current smokers. Among women, living alone was associated with using snus irrespective of smoking habits. Among female smokers, the OR for snus use increased with higher

  17. Time series analysis of trends in malaria cases and deaths at hospitals and the effect of antimalarial interventions, 2001-2011, Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aregawi, Maru; Lynch, Michael; Bekele, Worku; Kebede, Henok; Jima, Daddi; Taffese, Hiwot Solomon; Yenehun, Meseret Aseffa; Lilay, Abraham; Williams, Ryan; Thomson, Madeleine; Nafo-Traore, Fatoumata; Admasu, Kesetebirhan; Gebreyesus, Tedros Adhanom; Coosemans, Marc

    2014-01-01

    The Government of Ethiopia and its partners have deployed artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACT) since 2004 and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) since 2005. Malaria interventions and trends in malaria cases and deaths were assessed at hospitals in malaria transmission areas during 2001-2011. Regional LLINs distribution records were used to estimate the proportion of the population-at-risk protected by LLINs. Hospital records were reviewed to estimate ACT availability. Time-series analysis was applied to data from 41 hospitals in malaria risk areas to assess trends of malaria cases and deaths during pre-intervention (2001-2005) and post-interventions (2006-2011) periods. The proportion of the population-at-risk potentially protected by LLINs increased to 51% in 2011. The proportion of facilities with ACTs in stock exceeded 87% during 2006-2011. Among all ages, confirmed malaria cases in 2011 declined by 66% (95% confidence interval [CI], 44-79%) and SPR by 37% (CI, 20%-51%) compared to the level predicted by pre-intervention trends. In children under 5 years of age, malaria admissions and deaths fell by 81% (CI, 47%-94%) and 73% (CI, 48%-86%) respectively. Optimal breakpoint of the trendlines occurred between January and June 2006, consistent with the timing of malaria interventions. Over the same period, non-malaria cases and deaths either increased or remained unchanged, the number of malaria diagnostic tests performed reflected the decline in malaria cases, and rainfall remained at levels supportive of malaria transmission. Malaria cases and deaths in Ethiopian hospitals decreased substantially during 2006-2011 in conjunction with scale-up of malaria interventions. The decrease could not be accounted for by changes in hospital visits, malaria diagnostic testing or rainfall. However, given the history of variable malaria transmission in Ethiopia, more data would be required to exclude the possibility that the decrease is due to other factors.

  18. Active travel to work in NSW: trends over time and the effect of social advantage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zander, Alexis; Rissel, Chris; Rogers, Kris; Bauman, Adrian

    2014-12-01

    Active travel can increase population levels of physical activity, but should be promoted equitably. Socio-economic advantage, housing location and/or car ownership influence walking and cycling (active travel) for transport. We examined active commuting over time in the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Region, and associations between active commuting and socioeconomic advantage, urban/rural location and car ownership at a Local Government Area (LGA) level across New South Wales (NSW). Journey to work data from the 2001, 2006 and 2011 Australian Census were examined. Associations between levels of active commuting in each LGA in NSW and the Socio-Economic Index for Areas (SEIFA), Accessibility/Remoteness Index of Australia (ARIA) and car ownership were examined using negative binomial regression modelling. Between 2001 and 2011, active commuting increased in inner Sydney (relative increase of 24%), decreased slightly in outer Sydney (declined 5.1%) and declined in the Greater Metropolitan Region (down 15%). Overall, active commuting increased slightly (6.8% relative increase). After adjusting for the LGA age and sex profile and all other LGA variables, people living in NSW LGAs with high socioeconomic status, more rural areas and low car ownership were more likely to cycle or walk to work. More needs to be done in NSW to increase levels of active commuting consistently across regions and socio-demographic groups. SO WHAT?: Despite small increases in active travel in the Sydney region, active travel patterns are not evenly distributed across locations or populations.

  19. Recommended next care following hospital-treated self-harm: Patterns and trends over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arensman, Ella; Griffin, Eve; Daly, Caroline; Corcoran, Paul; Cassidy, Eugene; Perry, Ivan J

    2018-01-01

    The specific objectives of this study were to examine variation in the care of self-harm patients in hospital settings and to identify the factors that predict recommended next care following self-harm. Data on consecutive presentations to Irish emergency departments (EDs) involving self-harm from the National Self-Harm Registry Ireland from 2004 to 2012 were utilised. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were performed to assess the associations between patients' clinical and demographic characteristics, and recommended next care received. Across the study period a total 101,904 self-harm presentations were made to hospital EDs, involving 63,457 individuals. Over the course of the study there was a declining number of presentations resulting in patient admission following attendance with self-harm. Recommended next care varied according to hospital location, with general admission rates ranging from 11% to 61% across administrative health regions. Multinomial logistic regression identified that the factor which most strongly affected next care was the presenting hospital. Being male, older age, method, repeat self-harm, time of attendance and residence of the patient were all identified as influencing care received. Psychiatric admission was most common when highly lethal methods of self-harm were used (OR = 4.00, 95% CI, 3.63-4.41). A relatively large proportion of patients left the ED without being seen (15%) and the risk of doing so was highest for self-harm repeaters (1.64, 1.55-1.74 for those with 5+ presentations). The extensive hospital variation in recommended next care indicates that management of self-harm patients may be determined more by where they present than by the needs of the patient. The study outcomes underline the need to standardise the clinical management of self-harm patients in general hospital settings.

  20. New trends in InSAR time series analysis for wide area deformation mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanssen, R. F.; Caro Cuenca, M.; Hooper, A.; Mahapatra, P.; Arikan, M.; Bekaert, D.

    2012-04-01

    Synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) is a remote sensing technique that is extensively used to measure deformation at the Earth's surface. Although it has proven very successful to estimate small-scale (up to tens of km) deformation phenomena, InSAR still has limitations when applied to study wide areas (hundreds of km). First, radar observations are affected by atmospheric delay and errors in sensor position (also referred to as orbital errors). Both of these translate into large scale signals in InSAR estimations that can be interpreted as a non-existing deformation phenomenon. Second, since InSAR produces deformation maps relative to an area (or pixel) that is part of the observed track, combination of adjacent tracks requires the connection of these relative measurements to a common area or reference point. This operation is, however, non-trivial and is preferably performed in combination with in situ data. In this contribution, we explore different case studies where we address the aforementioned limitations to measure deformation in wide areas. They include the whole country of the Netherlands, the area of El Guerrero in Mexico and the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey. Our initial strategy is to filter out atmospheric and orbital errors assuming they are uncorrelated in time. However, this assumption does not always hold. Therefore, ancillary data, such as GPS and leveling, is also used for a precise estimation of the large scale deformation signal. Furthermore, datum connection is performed with ancillary data as well where different radar tracks and other geodetic data are combined to obtain the final deformation map in a common reference system. We also explore how compact radar transponders can help to tackle the datum connection problem.

  1. Trend analysis of cancer incidence in Japan using data from selected population-based cancer registries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katanoda, Kota; Ajiki, Wakiko; Matsuda, Tomohiro; Nishino, Yoshikazu; Shibata, Akiko; Fujita, Manabu; Tsukuma, Hideaki; Ioka, Akiko; Soda, Midori; Sobue, Tomotaka

    2012-02-01

    Population-based cancer registries are operated by over 80% of prefectures in Japan. However, only a limited proportion of the registries can provide long-term incidence data. Here, we aimed to establish a method for monitoring cancer incidence trends in Japan using data from selected prefectures. Based on the availability of long-term (≥ 20 years) high-quality data, we collected incidence data from five prefectures (Miyagi, Yamagata, Fukui, Osaka, and Nagasaki), which included an annual average of 54,539 primary cancer cases diagnosed between 1985 and 2004. Cancer mortality data for 1995-2004 were obtained from the vital statistics. Representativeness and homogeneity of the trends were examined by funnel plot analysis of log-linear regression coefficients calculated for the most recent 10 years of data (1995-2004) of age-standardized rates (ASR). The ASR of incidence for five prefectures in total (5-pref total) showed a significant decrease, with an annual percent change (APC) of -1.0 (95% confidence interval [CI] -1.4: -0.6) for males and -0.4 (95% CI -0.8: -0.1) for females. Excluding data from Osaka (4-pref total) reversed the decreasing trend; the corresponding APC was +0.4 (95% CI -0.2: +1.0) for males and +0.7 (95% CI +0.5: +0.9) for females. The APCs for the ASR of mortality for the 4-pref total (males, -1.5; females, -1.3) were more representative of nationwide data (males, -1.4 [95% CI -1.7: -1.2]; females, -1.1 [95% CI -1.4: -0.9]) than those for the 5-pref total (males, -1.7; females, -1.4). We conclude that using data from Miyagi, Yamagata, Fukui, and Nagasaki prefectures, with continuous monitoring of the representativeness of the data, is a provisionally relevant way to evaluate cancer incidence trends in Japan. © 2011 Japanese Cancer Association.

  2. An evaluation of prescribing trends and patterns of claims within the Preferred Drugs Initiative in Ireland (2011-2016): an interrupted time-series study.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    McDowell, Ronald

    2018-04-20

    To examine the impact of the Preferred Drugs Initiative (PDI), an Irish health policy aimed at enhancing evidence-based cost-effective prescribing, on prescribing trends and the cost of prescription medicines across seven medication classes.

  3. From 'Compliance-based' to 'Performance-based' Quality - A trend in and evolution of U. S. quality standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Douglas A.; Taylor, H. Stephen; Johnson, Robert B.; Erler, Bryan A.; Daley, Thomas J.

    1995-01-01

    efficient utilization of nuclear energy are outlined. These controls are reflected in a draft addenda to NQA-1. While recognizing that there are specific regulatory requirements that NQA-1 must continue to reflect, the draft addenda shifts its focus to the achievement of results, i. e., 'performance-based' quality. It emphasizes the roles of the individual worker and line management in the achievement of quality. The draft addenda to NQA-1 also encourages the application of requirements in a manner relative to the importance of the item or activity. This is consistent with a trend in the industry to go to a 'graded' approach to quality based on the safety significance of structures, systems, and components. At present, equal priority and levels of requirements are often applied to items, activities, and issues irrespective of their safety significance. A 'graded' approach to quality, with multiple levels of breadth and/or depth of requirements, provides potential material cost and labor savings. It also allows for categorization of issues so that they can be resolved in a time-frame commensurate with their safety significance

  4. Time trends in socioeconomic inequalities in oral health among 15-year-old Danish adolescents during 1995–2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sengupta, Kaushik; Christensen, Lisa Bøge; Mortensen, Laust Hvas

    Background: Scandinavian welfare states, despite having better population oral health when compared to less egalitarian societies, are characterized by ubiquitous social gradients and large relative socioeconomic inequalities in oral health. However, time trends in these inequalities among...... at Statistics Denmark. SEP measures included previous year’s parental education (highest attained educational level between the parents), income (equivalized household disposable income), and occupational social class (highest recorded occupational class between the parents). Covariates were immigration status......, country of origin, number of children and persons in the family, and household type. The outcome was dental caries experience, determined by the decayed, missing, and filled surfaces (DMFS) index. Negative binomial regression models were used to examine the association between DMFS count and each...

  5. Thyroid Cancer Incidence in New Jersey: Time Trend, Birth Cohort and Socioeconomic Status Analysis (1979-2006)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roche, L.M.; Niu, X.; Pawlish, K.S.; Henry, K.A.

    2011-01-01

    The study's purpose was to investigate thyroid cancer incidence time trends, birth cohort effects, and association with socioeconomic status (SES) in New Jersey (NJ), a high incidence state, using NJ State Cancer Registry data. Thyroid cancer incidence rates in each sex, nearly all age groups, two major histologists and all stages significantly increased between 1979 and 2006. For each sex, age-specific incidence rates began greatly increasing in the 1924 birth cohort and, generally, the highest thyroid cancer incidence rate for each five-year age group occurred in the latest birth cohort and diagnosis period. Thyroid cancer incidence rates were significantly higher in NJ Census tracts with higher SES and in counties with a higher percentage of insured residents. These results support further investigation into the relationship between rising thyroid cancer incidence and increasing population exposure to medical (including diagnostic) radiation, as well as widespread use of more sensitive diagnostic techniques

  6. Thyroid Cancer Incidence in New Jersey: Time Trend, Birth Cohort and Socioeconomic Status Analysis (1979–2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa M. Roche

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The study's purpose was to investigate thyroid cancer incidence time trends, birth cohort effects, and association with socioeconomic status (SES in New Jersey (NJ, a high incidence state, using NJ State Cancer Registry data. Thyroid cancer incidence rates in each sex, nearly all age groups, two major histologies and all stages significantly increased between 1979 and 2006. For each sex, age-specific incidence rates began greatly increasing in the 1924 birth cohort and, generally, the highest thyroid cancer incidence rate for each five-year age group occurred in the latest birth cohort and diagnosis period. Thyroid cancer incidence rates were significantly higher in NJ Census tracts with higher SES and in counties with a higher percentage of insured residents. These results support further investigation into the relationship between rising thyroid cancer incidence and increasing population exposure to medical (including diagnostic radiation, as well as widespread use of more sensitive diagnostic techniques.

  7. Septic Arthritis in Emergency Departments in the US: A National Study of Health Care Utilization and Time Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Jasvinder A; Yu, Shaohua

    2018-02-01

    To assess the health care utilization and emergency department (ED) charges for septic arthritis. We performed a retrospective cohort study of ED visits with septic arthritis as the primary diagnosis using the US Nationwide Emergency Department Sample data from 2009-2012. We examined ED charges, hospitalization, and associated time trends. Multivariable models were adjusted for demographics (age, sex, insurance status, residence, and household income), comorbidity, and hospital characteristics to assess factors associated with ED charges and hospitalization. Septic arthritis was responsible for 16,382 ED visits in 2012 in the US, which constituted 0.01% of all ED visits. The number of ED visits was stable from 2009-2012. Total ED charges were $34.6, $30.6, and $36.9 million in 2009, 2010, and 2012, respectively, and mean ED charges were $2,149, $1,866, and $2,257, respectively. The majority of the patients with an ED visit for septic arthritis were hospitalized: 82%, 83%, and 84% in 2009, 2010, and 2012, respectively. Metropolitan residence and western US location were associated with higher ED charges, and the highest income quartile, renal failure, or osteoarthritis were associated with lower ED charges. Female sex, metropolitan residence, metropolitan teaching hospital status, and medical comorbidity (diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, coronary heart disease, gout, osteoarthritis, renal failure, and heart failure) were associated with a higher risk of hospitalization. Comorbidities were associated with a higher risk of hospitalization after an ED visit for septic arthritis, but not higher ED charges. No time trends in ED visit incidence, ED charges, or hospitalization rate for septic arthritis from 2009-2012 were noted. © 2017, American College of Rheumatology.

  8. Footprint and imprint: an ecologic time-trend analysis of cardiovascular publications in general and specialty journals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldridge, Abigail S; Huffman, Mark D; Bloomfield, Gerald S; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj

    2014-06-01

    Studies have demonstrated strong associations between publication source and citations, as well as investigatory analysis of collaboration effects, in general and medical literature, but are limited to specific journals or short duration of time. This study sought to analyze time trends in cardiovascular research publications in leading general and specialty journals and to determine the association between collaboration and citation index. Cardiovascular publications were retrieved from Web of Knowledge by a cardiovascular bibliometric filter, and annual publication volumes in 8 general and specialty journals were compared. Univariable linear regression models were used to determine global and journal-specific trends for overall publication, cardiovascular publication, proportion of cardiovascular publication, collaboration, and citations. Cardiovascular publications increased (1999 to 2008) by 36% and number of sources by 74%. Volume increased in European Heart Journal (beta: 18.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 10.6 to 26.3) and decreased in Circulation (beta: -42.9, 95% CI: -79.3 to -6.5), Annals of Internal Medicine (beta: -1.9, 95% CI: -3.5 to -0.3), and Lancet (beta: -11.2, 95% CI: -14.7 to -7.8). Number of contributing countries increased in 3 journals: BMJ (beta: 0.8, 95% CI: 0.2 to 1.5), European Heart Journal (beta: -1.2, 95% CI: 0.8 to 1.7), and New England Journal of Medicine (beta: 1.6, 95% CI: 0.6 to 2.7). Fraction of collaborative publications increased (beta: 1.1 to 2.9) in all but Annals of Internal Medicine. Collaboration was associated with a higher median actual citation index (p journals. Contribution by country in selected journals was disproportionate and under-represents total cardiovascular research in low- and middle-income countries. Copyright © 2014 World Heart Federation (Geneva). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Landsat-based trend analysis of lake dynamics across northern permafrost regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nitze, Ingmar; Grosse, Guido; Jones, Benjamin M.; Arp, Christopher D.; Ulrich, Mathias; Federov, Alexander; Veremeeva, Alexandra

    2017-01-01

    Lakes are a ubiquitous landscape feature in northern permafrost regions. They have a strong impact on carbon, energy and water fluxes and can be quite responsive to climate change. The monitoring of lake change in northern high latitudes, at a sufficiently accurate spatial and temporal resolution, is crucial for understanding the underlying processes driving lake change. To date, lake change studies in permafrost regions were based on a variety of different sources, image acquisition periods and single snapshots, and localized analysis, which hinders the comparison of different regions. Here we present, a methodology based on machine-learning based classification of robust trends of multi-spectral indices of Landsat data (TM,ETM+, OLI) and object-based lake detection, to analyze and compare the individual, local and regional lake dynamics of four different study sites (Alaska North Slope, Western Alaska, Central Yakutia, Kolyma Lowland) in the northern permafrost zone from 1999 to 2014. Regional patterns of lake area change on the Alaska North Slope (-0.69%), Western Alaska (-2.82%), and Kolyma Lowland (-0.51%) largely include increases due to thermokarst lake expansion, but more dominant lake area losses due to catastrophic lake drainage events. In contrast, Central Yakutia showed a remarkable increase in lake area of 48.48%, likely resulting from warmer and wetter climate conditions over the latter half of the study period. Within all study regions, variability in lake dynamics was associated with differences in permafrost characteristics, landscape position (i.e. upland vs. lowland), and surface geology. With the global availability of Landsat data and a consistent methodology for processing the input data derived from robust trends of multi-spectral indices, we demonstrate a transferability, scalability and consistency of lake change analysis within the northern permafrost region.

  10. Trend analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.; Jones, D.R.

    1991-01-01

    The goal of exploration is to find reserves that will earn an adequate rate of return on the capital invested. Neither exploration nor economics is an exact science. The authors must therefore explore in those trends (plays) that have the highest probability of achieving this goal. Trend analysis is a technique for organizing the available data to make these strategic exploration decisions objectively and is in conformance with their goals and risk attitudes. Trend analysis differs from resource estimation in its purpose. It seeks to determine the probability of economic success for an exploration program, not the ultimate results of the total industry effort. Thus the recent past is assumed to be the best estimate of the exploration probabilities for the near future. This information is combined with economic forecasts. The computer software tools necessary for trend analysis are (1) Information data base - requirements and sources. (2) Data conditioning program - assignment to trends, correction of errors, and conversion into usable form. (3) Statistical processing program - calculation of probability of success and discovery size probability distribution. (4) Analytical processing - Monte Carlo simulation to develop the probability distribution of the economic return/investment ratio for a trend. Limited capital (short-run) effects are analyzed using the Gambler's Ruin concept in the Monte Carlo simulation and by a short-cut method. Multiple trend analysis is concerned with comparing and ranking trends, allocating funds among acceptable trends, and characterizing program risk by using risk profiles. In summary, trend analysis is a reality check for long-range exploration planning

  11. Trends of psychology-related research on euthanasia: a qualitative software-based thematic analysis of journal abstracts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caputo, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    Euthanasia has received increasing attention in both academic and public debates as one of the most controversial issues. However, the contribution of psychology-related themes to the topic has had little role on these ongoing debates. The aim of the present study is twofold: (1) to explore the main themes relating to euthanasia as provided by psychology-related research; (2) to analyze the temporal trends of psychology-related research on euthanasia over the last decades. A comprehensive search of academic literature was conducted on PsychINFO database. A qualitative software-based thematic analysis was carried out on 602 journal abstracts published from 1935 to 2014. This study highlighted four different thematic areas which characterized the scientific discourse on euthanasia: (1) moral values, in terms of religious, philosophical, and social implications concerning the individual's decision to die; (2) professional ethics, in terms of health and social workers' legal responsibility in death assistance; (3) end-of-life care, with regard to medical options provided to support individuals nearing death; and (4) patient's right to healthcare, in terms of access to palliative care and better quality of dying. Euthanasia discourse over the last decades seems to be overall characterized by two main dimensions: (1) the increasing trend of social legitimacy and acceptability of euthanasia over time, which moved from ethical to healthcare issues; and (2) the curvilinear temporal trend about the request/provision process in euthanasia, which moved from patient's decision for ending life (mainly characterizing the most past and recent research) to the role of health professionals (with a peak in the 1990s). The results suggest palliative care as a potential future research area which can provide healthcare providers with skills to 'connect' with patients, understand patients' hidden agendas, and grant a good quality of life and dying process.

  12. Antipsychotic Prescriptions Among Adults With Major Depressive Disorder in Office-Based Outpatient Settings: National Trends From 2006 to 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhee, Taeho Greg; Mohamed, Somaia; Rosenheck, Robert A

    2018-02-13

    A recent moderately long-term study found an antipsychotic to be more effective than an antidepressant as the next-step treatment of unresponsive major depressive disorder (MDD). It is thus timely to examine recent trends in the pharmacoepidemiology of antipsychotic treatment of MDD. Data from the 2006-2015 National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey, nationally representative samples of office-based outpatient visits in adults with MDD (ICD-9-CM codes 296.20-296.26 and 296.30-296.36) (n = 4,044 unweighted), were used to estimate rates of antipsychotic prescribing over these 10 years. Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified demographic and clinical factors independently associated with antipsychotic use in MDD. Antipsychotic prescribing for MDD increased from 18.5% in 2006-2007 to 24.9% in 2008-2009 and then declined to 18.9% in 2014-2015. Visits with adults 75 years or older showed the greatest decline from 27.0% in 2006-2007 to 10.7% in 2014-2015 (OR for overall trend = 0.73; 95% CI, 0.56-0.95). The most commonly prescribed antipsychotic agents were aripiprazole, olanzapine, quetiapine, and risperidone. Antipsychotic prescription was associated with being black or Hispanic, having Medicare among adults under 65 years or Medicaid as a primary source of payment, and receiving mental health counseling, 3 or more concomitant medications, and diagnosis of cannabis use disorder (P < .01). Antipsychotics, prescribed for about one-fifth of adults with MDD, increased and then declined from 2006 to 2015, reflecting, first, FDA approval and then concern about adverse effects in the elderly. Future research should track evolving trends following the publication of evidence of greater long-term effectiveness of antipsychotic than antidepressant next-step therapy in adults with MDD. © Copyright 2018 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

  13. State-space based analysis and forecasting of macroscopic road safety trends in Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

    2013-11-01

    In this paper, macroscopic road safety trends in Greece are analyzed using state-space models and data for 52 years (1960-2011). Seemingly unrelated time series equations (SUTSE) models are developed first, followed by richer latent risk time-series (LRT) models. As reliable estimates of vehicle-kilometers are not available for Greece, the number of vehicles in circulation is used as a proxy to the exposure. Alternative considered models are presented and discussed, including diagnostics for the assessment of their model quality and recommendations for further enrichment of this model. Important interventions were incorporated in the models developed (1986 financial crisis, 1991 old-car exchange scheme, 1996 new road fatality definition) and found statistically significant. Furthermore, the forecasting results using data up to 2008 were compared with final actual data (2009-2011) indicating that the models perform properly, even in unusual situations, like the current strong financial crisis in Greece. Forecasting results up to 2020 are also presented and compared with the forecasts of a model that explicitly considers the currently on-going recession. Modeling the recession, and assuming that it will end by 2013, results in more reasonable estimates of risk and vehicle-kilometers for the 2020 horizon. This research demonstrates the benefits of using advanced state-space modeling techniques for modeling macroscopic road safety trends, such as allowing the explicit modeling of interventions. The challenges associated with the application of such state-of-the-art models for macroscopic phenomena, such as traffic fatalities in a region or country, are also highlighted. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that it is possible to apply such complex models using the relatively short time-series that are available in macroscopic road safety analysis. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Time trends in leisure time physical activity and physical fitness in elderly people: 20 year follow-up of the Spanish population national health survey (1987-2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carrasco-Garrido Pilar

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To estimate trends in leisure time physical activity and physical fitness between 1987-2006 in older Spanish people. Methods We analyzed data collected from the Spanish National Health Surveys conducted in 1987 (n = 29,647, 1993 (n = 20,707, 1995-1997 (n = 12,800, 2001 (n = 21,058, 2003 (n = 21,650, and 2006 (n = 29,478. The number of subjects aged ≥ 65 years included in the current study was 29,263 (1987: n = 4,958-16.7%; 1993: n = 3,751-17.8%; 1995-97: n = 2,229-17.4%; 2001: n = 4,356-20.7%; 2003: 6,134-28.3%; 2006: 7,835-26.5%. Main variables included leisure-time physical activity and physical fitness. We analyzed socio-demographic characteristics, self-rated health status, lifestyle habit and co-morbid conditions using multivariate logistic regression models. Results Women exhibited lower prevalence of leisure time physical activity and physical fitness compared to men (P Conclusions We found an increase in leisure time physical activity in the older Spanish population. Older age, married status, co-morbid conditions, obesity, and worse self-perceived health status were associated with lower activity. Identification of these factors can help to identify individuals at risk for physical inactivity.

  15. Time Trends in Sputum Mycobacterial Load and Two-Day Bactericidal Activity of Isoniazid-Containing Antituberculosis Therapies

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Jager, Veronique; van der Merwe, Lize; Venter, Amour; Donald, Peter R.

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT Recent early bactericidal activity (EBA) studies of isoniazid-based antituberculosis therapies have shown a lower EBA over the first two treatment days than in earlier years. To quantify this trend and evaluate factors contributing to it, we extracted individual data from 18 studies with a total of 182 participants using isoniazid-containing therapies between 1992 and 2015 at a single site and laboratory in Cape Town, South Africa. We recalculated EBA as the daily fall in CFU per milliliter sputum up to day 2 of therapy (EBA0–2) for individual patients and treatment groups and used mixed-effects linear models to investigate the correlation between pretreatment CFU, EBA0–2, and year of study. We found that mean pretreatment CFU and year of study accounted for 46% and 47%, respectively, of the variation in mean EBA0–2. Mean pretreatment CFU differed between the periods 1992 to 2001 and 2007 to 2015 by 0.92 log10 CFU (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57 to 1.28; P < 0.0001). On average, pretreatment CFU dropped by 0.053 log10 CFU (95% CI, 0.029 to 0.076; P = 0.0004) and EBA0–2 by 0.012 log10 CFU (95% CI, 0.006 to 0.018; P = 0.001) per year. The EBA0–2 of isoniazid-based antituberculosis therapy is strongly correlated with baseline mycobacterial load and shows a declining trend over the past 2 decades. PMID:28137798

  16. Trends in the prevalence of Chagas' disease among first-time blood donors in São Paulo, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabino, Ester C; Gonçalez, Thelma T; Salles, Nanci A; Silva, Guilherme R; Chamone, Dalton F

    2003-07-01

    Screening of blood donors for Chagas' disease is mandatory in Brazil. Data about the prevalence of Chagas' disease among first-time blood donors has not been previously reported. The objective of this study was to report the trends in the prevalence of Chagas' disease among first-time blood donors in São Paulo, Brazil according to gender, age, and type of donation. The data was obtained at Fundação Pró-Sangue/Hemocentro de São Paulo during the period of 1996 to 2001. Samples were considered positive if they were reactive to the three serologic tests used at screening (indirect immunofluorescence, indirect hemagglutination, and EIA). The prevalence of Chagas' disease was two times higher among replacement blood donors than among altruistic donors (52 vs. 25 cases/10,000). The overall prevalence among blood donors decreased at a rate of 1.86 cases per 10,000 per year. An increase in the proportion of altruistic donors and a decrease in the prevalence primarily among younger donors were observed. The prevalence of Chagas' disease is decreasing in the São Paulo population. Differences in the socioeconomic level between altruistic and replacement donors may be the reason for the differences in the prevalence among these groups. It will be important to target for study the population of young seroreactive blood donors to better understand how new infections are occurring.

  17. Adaptive extraction method for trend term of machinery signal based on extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Yong; Jiang, Wan-lu; Kong, Xiang-dong [Yanshan University, Hebei (China)

    2017-02-15

    In mechanical fault diagnosis and condition monitoring, extracting and eliminating the trend term of machinery signal are necessary. In this paper, an adaptive extraction method for trend term of machinery signal based on Extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) was proposed. This method fully utilized ESMD, including the self-adaptive decomposition feature and optimal fitting strategy. The effectiveness and practicability of this method are tested through simulation analysis and measured data validation. Results indicate that this method can adaptively extract various trend terms hidden in machinery signal, and has commendable self-adaptability. Moreover, the extraction results are better than those of empirical mode decomposition.

  18. Prevalence and time trends of spina bifida in fourteen cities located in the Liaoning province of northeast China, 2006-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ba, Gen; Wu, Qi-Jun; Chen, Yan-Ling; Huang, Yan-Hong; Gong, Ting-Ting

    2017-03-21

    The present study sought to assess the time trends of spina bifida on the basis of cases identified by the Liaoning Birth Defects Registry in 14 cities from 2006 to 2015. We calculated the prevalence of spina bifida, percent and average change of time trends, and contribution rates of each city. Poisson regression model was used to find the line of best fit for spina bifida prevalence by year, with year as a continuous independent variable. From 2006 to 2015, a total of 2,029 spina bifida cases were identified from 3,248,954 live births (6.25/10,000 live births). We observed statistically significant decreasing trend of overall time trend (11.57% each year). Chaoyang, Fuxin, and Huludao were the top three leading cities, with 14.30/10,000 live births, 9.70/10,000 live births, and 9.20/10,000 live births, respectively. Inversely, the bottom three cities with lowest prevalence were Anshan (2.64/10,000 live births), Dandong (3.43/10,000 live births), and Dalian (3.45/10,000 live births). Of note, we observed significant decreasing trends in over half of these cities (n = 8). In addition, the decreasing trend of overall time trend could be mainly attributed to cities of Shenyang, Fushun, and Jinzhou which accounted for nearly one third. In summary, our study suggested a decreasing time trend of spina bifida during the past decade in the Liaoning province. The findings of this study provide evidence that the nationwide folic acid supplement program has been an effective strategy to prevent spina bifida.

  19. Mortality Trends After a Voluntary Checklist-based Surgical Safety Collaborative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haynes, Alex B; Edmondson, Lizabeth; Lipsitz, Stuart R; Molina, George; Neville, Bridget A; Singer, Sara J; Moonan, Aunyika T; Childers, Ashley Kay; Foster, Richard; Gibbons, Lorri R; Gawande, Atul A; Berry, William R

    2017-12-01

    To determine whether completion of a voluntary, checklist-based surgical quality improvement program is associated with reduced 30-day postoperative mortality. Despite evidence of efficacy of team-based surgical safety checklists in improving perioperative outcomes in research trials, effective methods of population-based implementation have been lacking. The Safe Surgery 2015 South Carolina program was designed to foster state-wide engagement of hospitals in a voluntary, collaborative implementation of a checklist program. We compared postoperative mortality rates after inpatient surgery in South Carolina utilizing state-wide all-payer discharge claims from 2008 to 2013, linked with state vital statistics, stratifying hospitals on the basis of completion of the checklist program. Changes in risk-adjusted 30-day mortality were compared between hospitals, using propensity score-adjusted difference-in-differences analysis. Fourteen hospitals completed the program by December 2013. Before program launch, there was no difference in mortality trends between the completion cohort and all others (P = 0.33), but postoperative mortality diverged thereafter (P = 0.021). Risk-adjusted 30-day mortality among completers was 3.38% in 2010 and 2.84% in 2013 (P checklist-based surgical quality improvement program had a reduction in deaths after inpatient surgery over the first 3 years of the collaborative compared with other hospitals in the state. This may indicate that effective large-scale implementation of a team-based surgical safety checklist is feasible.

  20. Time Trends in Incidence and Mortality of Acute Myocardial Infarction, and All-Cause Mortality following a Cardiovascular Prevention Program in Sweden.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gunilla Journath

    Full Text Available In 1988, a cardiovascular prevention program which combined an individual and a population-based strategy was launched within primary health-care in Sollentuna, a municipality in Stockholm County. The aim of this study was to investigate time trends in the incidence of and mortality from acute myocardial infarction and all-cause mortality in Sollentuna compared with the rest of Stockholm County during a period of two decades following the implementation of a cardiovascular prevention program.The average population in Sollentuna was 56,589 (49% men and in Stockholm County (Sollentuna included 1,795,504 (49% men during the study period of 1987-2010. Cases of hospitalized acute myocardial infarction and death were obtained for the population of Sollentuna and the rest of Stockholm County using national registries of hospital discharges and deaths. Acute myocardial infarction incidence and mortality were estimated using the average population of Sollentuna and Stockholm in 1987-2010.During the observation period, the incidence of acute myocardial infarction decreased more in Sollentuna compared with the rest of Stockholm County in women (-22% vs. -7%; for difference in slope <0.05. There was a trend towards a greater decline in Sollentuna compared to the rest of Stockholm County in the incidence of acute myocardial infarction (in men, acute myocardial mortality, and all-cause mortality but the differences were not significant.During a period of steep decline in acute myocardial infarction incidence and mortality in Stockholm County the municipality of Sollentuna showed a stronger trend in women possibly compatible with favorable influence of a cardiovascular prevention program.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02212145.

  1. Time trends in the association of ESRD incidence with area-level poverty in the US population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrity, Bridget H; Kramer, Holly; Vellanki, Kavitha; Leehey, David; Brown, Julia; Shoham, David A

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the temporal trends of the association between area-level poverty status and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) incidence. We hypothesized that the association between area-level poverty status and ESRD incidence has increased significantly over time. Patient data from the United States Renal Data System were linked with data from the 2000 and 2010 US census. Area-level poverty was defined as living in a zip code-defined area with ≥20% of households living below the federal poverty line. Negative binomial regression models were created to examine the association between area-level poverty status and ESRD incidence by time period in the US adult population while simultaneously adjusting for the distribution of age, sex, and race/ethnicity within a zip code. Time was categorized as January 1, 1995 through December 31, 2004 (Period 1) and January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2010 (Period 2). The percentage of adults initiating dialysis with area-level poverty increased from 27.4% during Period 1 to 34.0% in Period 2. After accounting for the distribution of age, sex, and race/ethnicity within a zip code, area-level poverty status was associated with a 1.24 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22, 1.25)-fold higher ESRD incidence. However, this association differed by time period with 1.04-fold (95% CI 1.02, 1.05) higher ESRD incidence associated with poverty status for Period 2 compared with the association between ESRD and poverty status in Period 1. Area-level poverty and its association with ESRD incidence is not static over time. © 2015 International Society for Hemodialysis.

  2. Temporal Trends in Overweight and Obesity, Physical Activity and Screen Time among Czech Adolescents from 2002 to 2014: A National Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigmund, Erik; Sigmundová, Dagmar; Badura, Petr; Kalman, Michal; Hamrik, Zdenek; Pavelka, Jan

    2015-01-01

    This study examines trends in overweight and obesity, physical activity (PA) and screen time (ST) among Czech adolescents over a recent 12-year study period. Nationally representative samples consisted of 19,940 adolescents (9760 boys and 10,180 girls) aged 10.5–16.5 years from the Czech Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) questionnaire-based surveys conducted in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014. Trends in the prevalence of overweight/obesity, meeting the recommendations for moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) (≥60 min per day of MVPA) and excessive ST (>2 h per day) were estimated using logistic regression. Significant increases (p overweight/obesity between the years 2002 and 2014 were evident for both adolescent boys (18.3%2002–24.8%2014) and girls (8.3%2002–11.9%2014). Compared to 2002, in 2014 significant decreases (p overweight/obesity with concomitant decreases in PA provide evidence in support of the current and upcoming efforts of government and commercial organizations in implementing interventions aimed at reducing excessive body weight among Czech adolescents. PMID:26393638

  3. Temporal Trends in Overweight and Obesity, Physical Activity and Screen Time among Czech Adolescents from 2002 to 2014: A National Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigmund, Erik; Sigmundová, Dagmar; Badura, Petr; Kalman, Michal; Hamrik, Zdenek; Pavelka, Jan

    2015-09-18

    This study examines trends in overweight and obesity, physical activity (PA) and screen time (ST) among Czech adolescents over a recent 12-year study period. Nationally representative samples consisted of 19,940 adolescents (9760 boys and 10,180 girls) aged 10.5-16.5 years from the Czech Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) questionnaire-based surveys conducted in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014. Trends in the prevalence of overweight/obesity, meeting the recommendations for moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) (≥60 min per day of MVPA) and excessive ST (>2 h per day) were estimated using logistic regression. Significant increases (p overweight/obesity between the years 2002 and 2014 were evident for both adolescent boys (18.3%(2002)-24.8%(2014)) and girls (8.3%(2002)-11.9%(2014)). Compared to 2002, in 2014 significant decreases (p overweight/obesity with concomitant decreases in PA provide evidence in support of the current and upcoming efforts of government and commercial organizations in implementing interventions aimed at reducing excessive body weight among Czech adolescents.

  4. Research trends on Big Data in Marketing: A text mining and topic modeling based literature analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra Amado

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Given the research interest on Big Data in Marketing, we present a research literature analysis based on a text mining semi-automated approach with the goal of identifying the main trends in this domain. In particular, the analysis focuses on relevant terms and topics related with five dimensions: Big Data, Marketing, Geographic location of authors’ affiliation (countries and continents, Products, and Sectors. A total of 1560 articles published from 2010 to 2015 were scrutinized. The findings revealed that research is bipartite between technological and research domains, with Big Data publications not clearly aligning cutting edge techniques toward Marketing benefits. Also, few inter-continental co-authored publications were found. Moreover, findings show that research in Big Data applications to Marketing is still in an embryonic stage, thus making it essential to develop more direct efforts toward business for Big Data to thrive in the Marketing arena.

  5. New Trends in the Design of Enzyme-based Biosensors for Medical Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palchetti, Ilaria

    2016-01-01

    A biosensor is a self-contained integrated device, which is capable of providing specific quantitative or semiquantitative analytical information using a biological (or biomimetic) recognition element, which is retained in direct spatial contact with an electrochemical transduction element. One of the main features of biosensors is the remarkable selectivity that their biological components confer on them. Enzymes are the most common and well-developed recognition system of the family known as catalytic biosensors. This mini-review is focused on enzyme-based biosensors for medical applications. In particular, the new trends for the technology are described. A special emphasis is devoted to the non-invasive and painless monitoring of body metabolites, such as glucose.

  6. Time trends of polybrominated diphenyl ethers in East China Seas: Response to the booming of PBDE pollution industry in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuanyuan; Lin, Tian; Hu, Limin; Feng, Jialiang; Guo, Zhigang

    2016-01-01

    The East China Seas (ECSs) are the receptors of the land-based persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) mainly from China through atmospheric deposition driven by the East Asian winter monsoon and fluvial discharge (e.g., Yangtze River and Yellow River), making the offshore sediments to be a good proxy to reconstruct history of those pollutants in China. In this work, four well-placed sediment cores were extracted from the mud areas in the ECSs, and the (210)Pb-dated cores were analyzed to yield historical concentration profiles of PBDEs in the area. The results showed that there was a persistent increase from 1970s and almost no clear sign in the decline of PBDEs until recently in China. More importantly, there was a faster increase of PBDEs from 1990s in China; while this period was just shown as gradually leveling off or even declining trends in developed countries. The persistently increasing trend of PBDEs in China since 1990s could be largely due to the booming of the manufacturing industry and unexpectedly transfer of PBDE pollution from developed countries to China. Besides, the relative high concentrations and fluxes of PBDEs in the core from coastal ECS located near a well-known electrical/electronic waste (e-waste) recycling area suggests an important contribution of PBDE emissions from recycling centers of e-waste in China. Although efforts in environmental monitoring of PBDE contamination have been substantially increased over the last decade, China is still lagging behind in terms of nationwide regulation of PBDE usage and treatment of disposal PBDE-containing products. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. The air-sea equilibrium and time trend of hexachlorocyclohexanes in the Atlantic Ocean between the Arctic and Antarctica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakaschus, Sonke; Weber, Kurt; Wania, Frank; Bruhn, Regina; Schrems, Otto

    2002-01-15

    Hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) were determined simultaneously in air and seawater during two cruises across the Atlantic Ocean between the Arctic Ocean (Ny-Alesund/ Svalbard, 79 degrees N; 12 degrees E) and the Antarctic Continent (Neumayer Station/ Ekstroem Ice Shelf, 70 degrees S; 8.2 degrees W) in 1999/ 2000. The concentrations of alpha-HCH and gamma-HCH in air and surface waters of the Arctic exceeded those in Antarctica by 1-2 orders of magnitude. The gaseous concentrations of gamma-HCH were highest above the North Sea and between 20 degrees N and 30 degrees S. Fugacity fractions were used to estimate the direction of the air-sea gas exchange. These showed for alpha-HCH thatthe measured concentrations in both phases were close to equilibrium in the North Atlantic (78 degrees N-40 degrees N), slightly undersaturated between 30 degrees N and 10 degrees S and again close to equilibrium between 20 degrees S and 50 degrees S. Y-HCH has reached phase equilibrium in the North Atlantic as alpha-HCH, but the surface waters of the tropical and southern Atlantic were strongly undersaturated with y-HCH, especially between 30 degrees N and 20 degrees S. These findings are significantly different from two earlier estimates around 1990 as a result of global emission changes within the past decade. Therefore, we investigated the time trend of the HCHs in the surface waters of the Atlantic between 50 degrees N and 60 degrees S on the basis of archived samples taken in 1987-1997 and those from 1999. A decrease of alpha-HCH by a factor of approximately 4 is observed at all sampling locations. No decrease of gamma-HCH occurred between 30 degrees N and 30 degrees S, but there was a decrease in the North Atlantic, North Sea, and in the South Atlantic south of 40 degrees S. The constant level of gamma-HCH in the tropical Atlantic confirms the conclusion that the tropical Atlantic acts as a sink for y-HCH at present time. The measured alpha-HCH seawater concentrations were compared

  8. Benchmarking of hospital information systems: Monitoring of discharge letters and scheduling can reveal heterogeneities and time trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eckholt Markus

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Monitoring of hospital information system (HIS usage can provide insights into best practices within a hospital and help to assess time trends. In terms of effort and cost of benchmarking, figures derived automatically from the routine HIS system are preferable to manual methods like surveys, in particular for repeated analysis. Methods Due to relevance for quality management and efficient resource utilization we focused on time-to-completion of discharge letters (assessed by CT-plots and usage of patient scheduling. We analyzed these parameters monthly during one year at a major university hospital in Germany. Results We found several distinct patterns of discharge letter documentation indicating a large heterogeneity of HIS usage between different specialties (completeness 51 – 99%, delays 0 – 90 days. Overall usage of scheduling increased during the observation period by 62%, but again showed a considerable variation between departments. Conclusion Regular monitoring of HIS key figures can contribute to a continuous HIS improvement process.

  9. Trends in screen time on week and weekend days in a representative sample of Southern Brazil students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, Adair S; Silva, Kelly S; Barbosa Filho, Valter C; Bezerra, Jorge; de Oliveira, Elusa S A; Nahas, Markus V

    2014-12-01

    Economic and technological improvements can help increase screen time use among adolescents, but evidence in developing countries is scarce. The aim of this study was to examine changes in TV watching and computer/video game use patterns on week and weekend days after a decade (2001 and 2011), among students in Santa Catarina, southern Brazil. A comparative analysis of two cross-sectional surveys that included 5 028 and 6 529 students in 2001 and 2011, respectively, aged 15-19 years. The screen time use indicators were self-reported. 95% Confidence intervals were used to compare the prevalence rates. All analyses were separated by gender. After a decade, there was a significant increase in computer/video game use. Inversely, a significant reduction in TV watching was observed, with a similar magnitude to the change in computer/video game use. The worst trends were identified on weekend days. The decrease in TV watching after a decade appears to be compensated by the increase in computer/video game use, both in boys and girls. Interventions are needed to reduce the negative impact of technological improvements in the lifestyles of young people, especially on weekend days. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Efficient constraint-based Sequential Pattern Mining (SPM) algorithm to understand customers’ buying behaviour from time stamp-based sequence dataset

    OpenAIRE

    Niti Ashish Kumar Desai; Amit Ganatra

    2015-01-01

    Business Strategies are formulated based on an understanding of customer needs. This requires development of a strategy to understand customer behaviour and buying patterns, both current and future. This involves understanding, first how an organization currently understands customer needs and second predicting future trends to drive growth. This article focuses on purchase trend of customer, where timing of purchase is more important than association of item to be purchased, and which can be...

  11. Using earth observation-based dry season NDVI trends for assessment of changes in tree cover in the Sahel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Horion, Stéphanie Marie Anne F; Fensholt, Rasmus; Tagesson, Håkan Torbern

    2014-01-01

    )-based studies reported positive changes in biological productivity in the Sahelian region in relation to increased precipitation, triggering an increased amount of herbaceous vegetation during the rainy season. However, this ‘greening of the Sahel’ may mask changes in the tree – grass composition......-based trends were generally not confirmed at the local scale based on selected study cases, partly caused by a temporal mismatch between data sets (i.e. different periods of analysis). Analysis of desert area NDVImin trends indicates less stable values for VGT and GIMMS data as compared with MODIS...

  12. Publication Trends in Acupuncture Research: A 20-Year Bibliometric Analysis Based on PubMed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Yan; Dong, Ming; Zhou, Kehua; Mita, Carol; Liu, Jianping; Wayne, Peter M

    2016-01-01

    Acupuncture has become popular and widely practiced in many countries around the world. Despite the large amount of acupuncture-related literature that has been published, broader trends in the prevalence and scope of acupuncture research remain underexplored. The current study quantitatively analyzes trends in acupuncture research publications in the past 20 years. A bibliometric approach was used to search PubMed for all acupuncture-related research articles including clinical and animal studies. Inclusion criteria were articles published between 1995 and 2014 with sufficient information for bibliometric analyses. Rates and patterns of acupuncture publication within the 20 year observational period were estimated, and compared with broader publication rates in biomedicine. Identified eligible publications were further analyzed with respect to study type/design, clinical condition addressed, country of origin, and journal impact factor. A total of 13,320 acupuncture-related publications were identified using our search strategy and eligibility criteria. Regression analyses indicated an exponential growth in publications over the past two decades, with a mean annual growth rate of 10.7%. This compares to a mean annual growth rate of 4.5% in biomedicine. A striking trend was an observed increase in the proportion of randomized clinical trials (RCTs), from 7.4% in 1995 to 20.3% in 2014, exceeding the 4.5% proportional growth of RCTs in biomedicine. Over the 20 year period, pain was consistently the most common focus of acupuncture research (37.9% of publications). Other top rankings with respect to medical focus were arthritis, neoplasms/cancer, pregnancy or labor, mood disorders, stroke, nausea/vomiting, sleep, and paralysis/palsy. Acupuncture research was conducted in 60 countries, with the top 3 contributors being China (47.4%), United States (17.5%), and United Kingdom (8.2%). Retrieved articles were published mostly in complementary and alternative medicine (CAM

  13. Health promotion in primary and secondary schools in Denmark: time trends and associations with schools' and students' characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Kirsten; Krølner, Rikke; Mortensen, Laust Hvas; Jørgensen, Marie Birk; Diderichsen, Finn

    2015-02-07

    Schools are important arenas for interventions among children as health promoting initiatives in childhood is expected to have substantial influence on health and well-being in adulthood. In countries with compulsory school attention, all children could potentially benefit from health promotion at the school level regardless of socioeconomic status or other background factors. The first aim was to elucidate time trends in the number and types of school health promoting activities by describing the number and type of health promoting activities in primary and secondary schools in Denmark. The second aim was to investigate which characteristics of schools and students that are associated with participation in many (≥3) versus few (0-2) health promoting activities during the preceding 2-3 years. We used cross-sectional data from the 2006- and 2010-survey of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children study. The headmasters answered questions about the school's participation in health promoting activities and about school size, proportion of ethnic minorities, school facilities available for health promoting activities, competing problems and resources at the school and in the neighborhood. Students provided information about their health-related behavior and exposure to bullying which was aggregated to the school level. A total of 74 schools were available for analyses in 2006 and 69 in 2010. We used chi-square test, t-test, and binary logistic regression to analyze time trends and differences between schools engaging in many versus few health promoting activities. The percentage of schools participating in ≥3 health promoting activities was 63% in 2006 and 61% in 2010. Also the mean number of health promoting activities was similar (3.14 vs. 3.07). The activities most frequently targeted physical activity (73% and 85%) and bullying (78% and 67%). Schools' participation in anti-smoking activities was significantly higher in 2006 compared with 2010 (46% vs. 29

  14. Trends in size classified particle number concentration in subtropical Brisbane, Australia, based on a 5 year study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mejía, J. F.; Wraith, D.; Mengersen, K.; Morawska, L.

    Particle number size distribution data in the range from 0.015 to 0.630 μm were collected over a 5-year period in the central business district (CBD) of Brisbane, Australia. Particle size distribution was summarised by total number concentration and number median diameter (NMD) as well as the number concentration of the 0.015-0.030 ( N15-30), 0.030-0.050 ( N30-50), 0.050-0.100 ( N50-100), 0.100-0.300 ( N100-300) and 0.300-0.630 ( N300-630) μm size classes. Morning (6:00-10:00) and afternoon (16:00-19:00) measurements, the former representing fresh traffic emissions (based on the local meteorological conditions) and the latter well-mixed emissions from the CBD, during weekdays were extracted and the respective monthly mean values were estimated for time series analysis. For all size fractions, average morning concentrations were about 1.5 higher than in the afternoon whereas NMD did not vary between the morning and afternoon. The trend and seasonal components were extracted through weighted linear regression models, using the monthly variance as weights. Only the morning measurements exhibited significant trends. During this time of the day, total particle number increased by 105.7% and the increase was greater for larger particles, resulting in a shift in NMD by 7.9%. Although no seasonal component was detected the evidence against it remained weak due to the limitations of the database.

  15. Trends in standardized mortality among individuals with schizophrenia, 1993-2012: a population-based, repeated cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatov, Evgenia; Rosella, Laura; Chiu, Maria; Kurdyak, Paul A

    2017-09-18

    We examined mortality time trends and premature mortality among individuals with and without schizophrenia over a 20-year period. In this population-based, repeated cross-sectional study, we identified all individual deaths that occurred in Ontario between 1993 and 2012 in persons aged 15 and over. We plotted overall and cause-specific age- and sex-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), stratified all-cause ASMR trends by sociodemographic characteristics, and analyzed premature mortality using years of potential life lost. Additionally, we calculated mortality rate ratios (MRRs) using negative binomial regression with adjustment for age, sex, income, rurality and year of death. We identified 31 349 deaths among persons with schizophrenia, and 1 589 902 deaths among those without schizophrenia. Mortality rates among people with schizophrenia were 3 times higher than among those without schizophrenia (adjusted MRR 3.12, 95% confidence interval 3.06-3.17). All-cause ASMRs in both groups declined in parallel over the study period, by about 35%, and were higher for men, for those with low income and for rural dwellers. The absolute ASMR difference also declined throughout the study period (from 16.15 to 10.49 deaths per 1000 persons). Cause-specific ASMRs were greater among those with schizophrenia, with circulatory conditions accounting for most deaths between 1993 and 2012, whereas neoplasms became the leading cause of death for those without schizophrenia after 2005. Individuals with schizophrenia also died, on average, 8 years younger than those without schizophrenia, losing more potential years of life. Although mortality rates among people with schizophrenia have declined over the past 2 decades, specialized approaches may be required to close the persistent 3-fold relative mortality gap with the general population. © 2017 Canadian Medical Association or its licensors.

  16. National Trends in the Epidemiology of Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma: A National Cancer Data Base Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saddoughi, Sahar A; Abdelsattar, Zaid M; Blackmon, Shanda H

    2018-02-01

    Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) remains an aggressive malignancy that is difficult to cure. However, the treatment paradigm of MPM has evolved, and the national practice patterns are unknown. This study examined the national trends in the epidemiology, national treatment patterns, and survival of patients with this disease. We identified all patients (n = 19,134) with MPM from the National Cancer Data Base from 2004 to 2013. We analyzed patient, tumor characteristics, and treatment patterns using descriptive statistics and used Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models to estimate survival stratified by the type of therapy administered. Four histologic subtypes were represented in the National Cancer Data Base, these included sarcomatoid (n = 2,355 [12.3%]), epithelioid (n = 6,858 [35.8%]), biphasic (n = 13,617 [11%]), and not otherwise specified (n = 8,560 [44.7%]). Across all subtypes, the prevalence of mesothelioma was highest among white men. Sarcomatoid had the worst survival (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.2; p Data Base. Although survival remains poor, multimodality therapy with surgical resection is associated with the best survival for MPM. Further research is needed to improve survival and overall patient outcomes. Copyright © 2018 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. A Fast Density-Based Clustering Algorithm for Real-Time Internet of Things Stream

    OpenAIRE

    Amini, Amineh; Saboohi, Hadi; Ying Wah, Teh; Herawan, Tutut

    2014-01-01

    Data streams are continuously generated over time from Internet of Things (IoT) devices. The faster all of this data is analyzed, its hidden trends and patterns discovered, and new strategies created, the faster action can be taken, creating greater value for organizations. Density-based method is a prominent class in clustering data streams. It has the ability to detect arbitrary shape clusters, to handle outlier, and it does not need the number of clusters in advance. Therefore, density-bas...

  18. Dental anxiety and dental attendance among 25-year-olds in Norway: time trends from 1997 to 2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Skaret Erik

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background So far, there are few studies considering the development of dental anxiety and dental attendance patterns across time in the general population of Norwegian adults. This study aimed to 1 determine the frequency of dental anxiety and regular dental attendance among 25-year-olds in Norway in 1997 and 2007, 2 to study the development (time trend of dental anxiety and the socio-behavioral distribution of dental anxiety from 1997 to 2007. Method Random samples of 1,190 and 8,000 25-yr-olds were drawn from the populations of three counties in Western Norway in 1997 and 2007, respectively. The eligible participants received questionnaires by mail including questions on socio-demographics, dental anxiety (DAS and dental attendance. Results In 1997, 11.5% males versus 23% females reported high dental anxiety (DAS ≥ 13. Corresponding figures in 2007 were 11.3% and 19.8%. The proportions who had attended yearly for a dental check-up during the past 5 years fell from 62% in 1997 (men 56.9% and women 66.4% to 44.6% (men 38.1% and women 48.6% in 2007. After controlling for potential confounding factors, the 25-year-olds were 1.4 times more likely to report dental anxiety in 1997 compared to 2007. The decrease was largely attributable to a lower mean DAS score among higher educated females in 2007 than in 1997. The discrepancy in dental anxiety between regular and non-regular dental attendees had decreased, largely attributable to a decline in dental anxiety among irregular dental attendees. Conclusion The study showed reduced dental anxiety and dental attendance among 25 year-olds in Norway from 1997 to 2007. This study points to the importance of controlling for possible changes in socio-demographic distributions when different cohorts are compared.

  19. Trends of reporting of ‘serious’vs. ‘non-serious’ adverse drug reactions over time: a study in the French PharmacoVigilance Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moulis, Guillaume; Sommet, Agnès; Durrieu, Geneviève; Bagheri, Haleh; Lapeyre-Mestre, Maryse; Montastruc, Jean-Louis

    2012-01-01

    AIM To investigate trends in spontaneous reporting to the French Pharmacovigilance system of ‘serious’ (SADRs) and ‘non-serious’ (NSADRs) adverse drug reactions over time. METHODS Annual SADR : NSADR ratios were calculated for each drug and their evolution tested with linear trend tests. RESULTS Among the 39 new active substances commercialized in France in 2000, 16 had sufficient data to perform linear trend tests. An increasing linear relation was found for five widely prescribed drugs, a non-significant increasing trend for eight others, i.e. drugs mostly used in hospitals. CONCLUSION ADR reports mainly concern NSADRs during first years of marketing. Reports of SADRs are proportionally more frequent later. PMID:22257367

  20. Constraining spatial patterns and secular trends of springtime phenology with contrasting models based on plant phenology gardens and carbon dioxide flux networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, M. A.; Baldocchi, D. D.; Schwartz, M. D.

    2007-12-01

    Shifts in the timing and distribution of spring phenological events are a central feature of global change research. Most evidence, especially for multi-decade records, indicates a shift towards earlier spring but with frequent differences in the magnitude and location of trends. Here, using two phenology models, one based on first bloom dates of clonal honeysuckle and lilac and one based on initiation of net carbon uptake at eddy covariance flux towers, we upscaled observations of spring arrival to the conterminous US at 1km resolution. The models shared similar and coherent spatial and temporal patterns at large regional scales but differed at smaller scales, likely attributable to: use of cloned versus extant species; chilling requirements; model complexity; and biome characteristics. Our results constrain climatically driven shifts in 1981 to 2003 spring arrival for the conterminous US to between -2.7 and 0.1 day/23 years. Estimated trend differences were minor in the biome of model development (deciduous broad leaf forest) but diverged strongly in woody evergreen and grassland areas. Based on comparisons with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and a limited independent ground dataset, predictions from both models were consistent with observations of satellite-based greenness and measured leaf expansion. First bloom trends, which were mostly statistically insignificant, were also consistent with NDVI trends while the net carbon uptake model predicted extensive trends towards earlier spring in the western US that were not observed in the NDVI data, showing the implication of model application outside the biome range of initial development.

  1. Driving under the influence among frequent ecstasy consumers in Australia: trends over time and the role of risk perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Allison Jane; Bruno, Raimondo; Dietze, Paul; Butler, Kerryn; Burns, Lucy

    2014-11-01

    Driving under the influence (DUI) of alcohol and illicit drugs is a serious road safety concern. This research aimed to examine trends in DUI across time and changes in attitudes towards the risks (crash and legal) associated with DUI among regular ecstasy users (REU) interviewed in Australia. Participants were regular (at least monthly) ecstasy users surveyed in 2007 (n=573) or 2011 (n=429) who had driven a car in the last six months. Face to face interviews comprised questions about recent engagement of DUI and roadside breath (alcohol) and saliva (drug) testing. Participants also reported the risk of crash and of being apprehended by police if DUI of alcohol, cannabis, ecstasy, and methamphetamine. There were significant reductions in DUI of psychostimulants (ecstasy, methamphetamine, cocaine, LSD) but not alcohol or cannabis between 2007 and 2011. This was accompanied by increased experience of roadside saliva testing and increases in crash and legal risk perceptions for ecstasy and methamphetamine, but not alcohol or cannabis. When the relationship between DUI and risk variables was examined, low crash risk perceptions were associated with DUI of all substances and low legal risk perceptions were associated with DUI of ecstasy. The observed reduction in DUI of psychostimulants among frequent ecstasy consumers may be related to increased risk awareness stemming from educational campaigns and the introduction of saliva testing on Australian roads. Such countermeasures may be less effective in relation to deterring or changing attitudes towards DUI of cannabis and alcohol among this group. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Child Mortality In The US And 19 OECD Comparator Nations: A 50-Year Time-Trend Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakrar, Ashish P; Forrest, Alexandra D; Maltenfort, Mitchell G; Forrest, Christopher B

    2018-01-01

    The United States has poorer child health outcomes than other wealthy nations despite greater per capita spending on health care for children. To better understand this phenomenon, we examined mortality trends for the US and nineteen comparator nations in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development for children ages 0-19 from 1961 to 2010 using publicly available data. While child mortality progressively declined across all countries, mortality in the US has been higher than in peer nations since the 1980s. From 2001 to 2010 the risk of death in the US was 76 percent greater for infants and 57 percent greater for children ages 1-19. During this decade, children ages 15-19 were eighty-two times more likely to die from gun homicide in the US. Over the fifty-year study period, the lagging US performance amounted to over 600,000 excess deaths. Policy interventions should focus on infants and on children ages 15-19, the two age groups with the greatest disparities, by addressing perinatal causes of death, automobile accidents, and assaults by firearm.

  3. Acute hepatitis A, B and C but not D is still prevalent in Mongolia: a time trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baatarkhuu, Oidov; Lee, Hye Won; George, Jacob; Munkh-Orshikh, Dashchirev; Enkhtuvshin, Baasankhuu; Ariunaa, Sosorbaram; Eslam, Mohammed; Ahn, Sang Hoon; Han, Kwang-Hyub; Kim, Do Young

    2017-06-01

    Mongolia has one of the highest hepatitis A, C, B and D infection incidences worldwide. We sought to investigate changes in the proportion of acute viral hepatitis types in Mongolia over the last decade. The cohort comprised 546 consecutive patients clinically diagnosed with acute viral hepatitis from January 2012 to December 2014 in Ulaanbaatar Hospital, Mongolia. A time trend analysis investigating the change in proportion of acute hepatitis A virus, hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis delta virus (HDV) infection among the cohort with respect to a previous published study was undertaken. Acute hepatitis A, B and C was diagnosed in 50.9%, 26.2% and 6.0% of the cohort. Notably, 16.8% of the cohort had a dual infection. The etiologies of acute viral hepatitis were varied by age groups. The most common cause of acute viral hepatitis among 2-19 year olds was hepatitis A, HBV and superinfection with HDV among 20-40 year olds, and HCV among 40-49 year olds. Patients with more than one hepatitis virus infection were significantly older, more likely to be male and had a higher prevalence of all risk factors for disease acquisition. These patients also had more severe liver disease at presentation compared to those with mono-infection. Acute viral hepatitis is still prevalent in Mongolia. Thus, the need for proper infection control is increasing in this country.

  4. Assessment of Humidity Conditions and Trends Based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SEPI Over Different Climatic Regions of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ghabaei S

    2017-01-01

    temperature, mean relative humidity, sunshine hours and wind speed at 2 m height. A probability-based overall water deficit assessment was achieved from multiple drought-related indices (i.e. SPEI, SPI and RDI. The humidity conditions were monitored for given stations based on each index during annual, short term (1, 3 and 6 months and long term (9 , 12, 18 and 24 months periods. This research further examine the Locally Weighted Scatter plot Smoothing (LOWESS graphical method and nonparametric Man- Kendal test to evaluate the trends associated with humidity deficiency in annual and monthly time scales during 51 years period (i.e. 1960-2010. Results and Discussion: Our results revealed that the maximum correlation between SPEI index with indices of SPI and RDI was achieved in the coastal wet region and with a declining trend in relative humidity condition in the rest of the regions, this correlation is down over both short- and long-term periods. A comparison between SPI and SPEI also performed that the SPI index was able to reflect prolonged drought over the costal wet region where it showed significant inconstancy in desert and semi desert regions. SPEI result suggested substantial deficiencies in relative humidity at the beginning of 1997 during long term period which indicated an increasing trend of drought statues during last decades. Overall, according to the results of SPEI index in 1month periods monthly drought assessment showed a declining trend in drought magnitude during autumn, winter and spring season months (October to June at investigated stations excepts Tehran and Shiraz stations and with a potential deficiency in relative humidity conditions. Unlikely, annual trend showed increasing trends in drought frequency and persistent over last decade. Conclusion: Our results can be summarized as below: Focusing on various types of deficits, the result of humidity based deficiencies indicated that for semi-mountains, mountains, semi-arid, arid and costal desert

  5. Time resolved excitation dynamics in emeraldine base

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Menšík, Miroslav; Rais, David; Pfleger, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 456, 29 July (2015), s. 79-84 ISSN 0301-0104. [International Conference Electronic and Related Properties of Organic Solids /13./ - ERPOS 2014. Świeradów Zdrój, 06.07.2014-10.07.2014] R&D Projects: GA MŠk LH12186; GA MŠk(CZ) LD14011; GA ČR GAP108/12/1143 Grant - others:European Commission(XE) COST Action MP1202 HINT Institutional support: RVO:61389013 Keywords : polyaniline * emeraldine base * transient absorption spectroscopy Subject RIV: BM - Solid Matter Physics ; Magnetism Impact factor: 1.758, year: 2015

  6. Impact of the global financial crisis on low birth weight in Portugal: a time-trend analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kana, Musa Abubakar; Correia, Sofia; Peleteiro, Barbara; Severo, Milton; Barros, Henrique

    2017-01-01

    Background The 2007–2008 global financial crisis had adverse consequences on population health of affected European countries. Few contemporary studies have studied its effect on perinatal indicators with long-lasting influence on adult health. Therefore, in this study, we investigated the impact of the 2007–2008 global financial crisis on low birth weight (LBW) in Portugal. Methods Data on 2 045 155 singleton births of 1995–2014 were obtained from Statistics Portugal. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to identify the years in which changes in LBW trends occurred, and to estimate the annual per cent changes (APC). LBW risk by time period expressed as prevalence ratios were computed using the Poisson regression. Contextual changes in sociodemographic and economic factors were provided by their trends. Results The joinpoint analysis identified 3 distinct periods (2 jointpoints) with different APC in LBW, corresponding to 1995–1999 (APC=4.4; 95% CI 3.2 to 5.6), 2000–2006 (APC=0.1; 95% CI −050 to 0.7) and 2007–2014 (APC=1.6; 95% CI 1.2 to 2.0). For non-Portuguese, it was, respectively, 1995–1999 (APC=1.4; 95% CI −3.9 to 7.0%), 2000–2007 (APC=−4.2; 95% CI −6.4 to −2.0) and 2008–2014 (APC=3.1; 95% CI 0.8 to 5.5). Compared with 1995–1999, all specific maternal characteristics had a 10–15% increase in LBW risk in 2000–2006 and a 20–25% increase in 2007–2014, except among migrants, for which LBW risk remained lower than in 1995–1999 but increased after the crisis. The increasing LBW risk coincides with a deceleration in gross domestic product growth rate, reduction in health expenditure, social protection allocation on family/children support and sickness. Conclusions The 2007–2008 global financial crisis was associated with a significant increase in LBW, particularly among infants of non-Portuguese mothers. We recommend strengthening social policies aimed at maternity protection for vulnerable mothers and health

  7. Food Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwenk, Nancy E.

    1991-01-01

    An overall perspective on trends in food consumption is presented. Nutrition awareness is at an all-time high; consumption is influenced by changes in disposable income, availability of convenience foods, smaller household size, and an increasing proportion of ethnic minorities in the population. (18 references) (LB)

  8. Geo-mapping of time trends in childhood caries risk--a method for assessment of preventive care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strömberg, Ulf; Holmn, Anders; Magnusson, Kerstin

    2012-01-01

    Dental caries is unevenly distributed within populations with a higher burden in low socio-economy groups. Several attempts have been made to allocate resources to those that need them the most; there is a need for convenient approaches to population-based monitoring of caries risk over time...

  9. Regression analyses of time trends of perinatal mortality and stillbirth proportions in Germany and Europe 1980-1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scherb, H.; Weigelt, E. [GSF-Forschungszentrum fuer Umwelt und Gesundheit, Inst. fuer Biomathematik und Biometrie, Oberschleissheim (Germany)

    2001-07-01

    In contrast to the western European trend, the eastern European trend exhibits an absolute increase of the stillbirth proportion in 1986 as compared with 1985 and an apparent upward shift of the whole trend line from 1986 on. The present result adds to the evidence of noticeable effects of the Chernobyl accident on public health such as the increases in the incidence of infant leukemia in Greece and Germany in 1986/1987 and an excess perinatal death proportion in Germany in 1987. (orig.)

  10. Mesoamerican nephropathy: geographical distribution and time trends of chronic kidney disease mortality between 1970 and 2012 in Costa Rica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesseling, Catharina; van Wendel de Joode, Berna; Crowe, Jennifer; Rittner, Ralf; Sanati, Negin A; Hogstedt, Christer; Jakobsson, Kristina

    2015-10-01

    Mesoamerican nephropathy is an epidemic of chronic kidney disease (CKD) unrelated to traditional causes, mostly observed in sugarcane workers. We analysed CKD mortality in Costa Rica to explore when and where the epidemic emerged, sex and age patterns, and relationship with altitude, climate and sugarcane production. SMRs for CKD deaths (1970-2012) among population aged ≥20 were computed for 7 provinces and 81 counties over 4 time periods. Time trends were assessed with age-standardised mortality rates. We qualitatively examined relations between mortality and data on altitude, climate and sugarcane production. During 1970-2012, age-adjusted mortality rates in the Guanacaste province increased among men from 4.4 to 38.5 per 100,000 vs. 3.6-8.4 in the rest of Costa Rica, and among women from 2.3 to 10.7 per 100,000 vs. 2.6-5.0 in the rest of Costa Rica. A significant moderate excess mortality was observed among men in Guanacaste already in the mid-1970s, steeply increasing thereafter; a similar female excess mortality appeared a decade later, remaining stable. Male age-specific rates were high in Guanacaste for age categories ≥30, and since the late 1990s also for age range 20-29. The male spatiotemporal patterns roughly followed sugarcane expansion in hot, dry lowlands with manual harvesting. Excess CKD mortality occurs primarily in Guanacaste lowlands and was already present 4 decades ago. The increasing rates among Guanacaste men in hot, dry lowland counties with sugarcane are consistent with an occupational component. Stable moderate increases among women, and among men in counties without sugarcane, suggest coexisting environmental risk factors. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  11. Recent Trends in Nanotechnology-Based Drugs and Formulations for Targeted Therapeutic Delivery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iqbal, Hafiz M N; Rodriguez, Angel M V; Khandia, Rekha; Munjal, Ashok; Dhama, Kuldeep

    2017-01-01

    In the recent past, a wider spectrum of nanotechnologybased drugs or drug-loaded devices and systems has been engineered and investigated with high interests. The key objective is to help for an enhanced/better quality of patient life in a secure way by avoiding/limiting drug abuse, or severe adverse effects of some in practice traditional therapies. Various methodological approaches including in vitro, in vivo, and ex vivo techniques have been exploited, so far. Among them, nanoparticles-based therapeutic agents are of supreme interests for an enhanced and efficient delivery in the current biomedical sector of the modern world. The development of new types of novel, effective and highly reliable therapeutic drug delivery system (DDS) for multipurpose applications is essential and a core demand to tackle many human health related diseases. In this context, nanotechnology-based several advanced DDS have been engineered with novel characteristics for biomedical, pharmaceutical and cosmeceutical applications that include but not limited to the enhanced/improved bioactivity, bioavailability, drug efficacy, targeted delivery, and therapeutically safer with an extra advantage of overcoming demerits of traditional drug formulations/designs. This review work is focused on recent trends/advances in nanotechnology-based drugs and formulations designed for targeted therapeutic delivery. Moreover, information is also reviewed and given from recent patents and summarized or illustrated diagrammatically to depict a better understanding. Recent patents covering various nanotechnology-based approaches for several applications have also been reviewed. The drug-loaded nanoparticles are among versatile candidates with multifunctional characteristics for potential applications in biomedical, and tissue engineering sector. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

  12. An Adaptive Density-Based Time Series Clustering Algorithm: A Case Study on Rainfall Patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaomi Wang

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Current time series clustering algorithms fail to effectively mine clustering distribution characteristics of time series data without sufficient prior knowledge. Furthermore, these algorithms fail to simultaneously consider the spatial attributes, non-spatial time series attribute values, and non-spatial time series attribute trends. This paper proposes an adaptive density-based time series clustering (DTSC algorithm that simultaneously considers the three above-mentioned attributes to relieve these limitations. In this algorithm, the Delaunay triangulation is first utilized in combination with particle swarm optimization (PSO to adaptively obtain objects with similar spatial attributes. An improved density-based clustering strategy is then adopted to detect clusters with similar non-spatial time series attribute values and time series attribute trends. The effectiveness and efficiency of the DTSC algorithm are validated by experiments on simulated datasets and real applications. The results indicate that the proposed DTSC algorithm effectively detects time series clusters with arbitrary shapes and similar attributes and densities while considering noises.

  13. Time trends in blood pressure, body mass index and smoking in the Vietnamese population: a meta-analysis from multiple cross-sectional surveys.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quang Ngoc Nguyen

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Data for trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors are needed to set priorities and evaluate intervention programmes in the community. We estimated time trends in blood pressure (BP, anthropometric variables and smoking in the Vietnamese population and highlighted the differences between men and women or between rural and urban areas. METHODS: A dataset of 23,563 adults aged 25-74 from 5 cross-sectional surveys undertaken within Vietnam from 2001 to 2009 by the Vietnam National Heart Institute was used to estimate mean BP, weight, waist circumference (WC, body mass index (BMI, the prevalence of hypertension, adiposity or smoking, which were standardised to the national age structure of 2009. Multilevel mixed linear models were used to estimate annual changes in the variables of interest, adjusted by age, sex, residential area, with random variations for age and surveyed provinces. FINDINGS: Among the adult population, the age-standardised mean systolic and diastolic BP increased by 0.8 and 0.3 mmHg in women, 1.1 and 0.4 mmHg in men, while the mean BMI increased by 0.1 kgm(-2 in women, 0.2 kgm(-2 in men per year. Consequently, the prevalence of hypertension and adiposity increased by 0.9 and 0.3% in women, 1.1 and 0.9% in men with similar time trends in both rural and urban areas, while smoking prevalence only increased in women by 0.3% per year. A U-shaped association was found between age-adjusted BP and BMI in both sexes and in both areas. CONCLUSIONS: From 2001 to 2009, mean BP, weight and WC significantly increased in the Vietnamese population, leading to an increased prevalence of hypertension and adiposity, suggesting the need for the development of multi-sectoral cost-effective population-based interventions to improve CVD management and prevention. The U-shaped relationship between BP and BMI highlighted the hypertension burden in the underweight population, which is usually neglected in CVD interventions.

  14. The Austrian breast implant register: recent trends in implant-based breast surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurzer, Paul; Rappl, Thomas; Friedl, Herwig; Kamolz, Lars-Peter; Spendel, Stephan; Hoflehner, Helmut; Parvizi, Daryousch

    2014-12-01

    Due to the fact that the number of breast implant surgeries for cosmetic and medical purposes is rising yearly, a discussion about the quality of service for both patients and physicians is more important than ever. To this end, we reviewed the Austrian Breast Implant Register with one specific question in mind: What are the trends? In the statistical analysis of the Austrian Breast Implant Register, we were able to identify 13,112 registered breast implants between 2004 and 2012. The whole dataset was then divided into medical and cosmetic groups. We focused on device size, surface characteristics, filling material, device placement and incision site. All factors were considered for all examined years. In summary, the most used device had a textured surface (97 %) and silicone gel as the filling material (93 %). The mean size of implants for the cosmetic group was 240 cc, placement was submuscular (58 %) and the incision site was inframammary (67 %). In the medical group, the mean size was 250 cc. Yearly registrations had their peak in 2008 (1,898 registered devices); from this year on, registrations decreased annually. A slight trend away from subglandular placement in the cosmetic group was noted. Also, the usage of implants with polyurethane surface characteristics has increased since 2008. The smooth surface implants had a peak usage in 2006 and their usage decreased steadily from then on whereas the textured surface was steady over the years. Keeping the problems related to the quality of breast implants in mind, we could recommend an obligatory national register. Organisations of surgeons and governments should develop and establish these registers. Furthermore, an all-encompassing international register should be established by the European Union and the American FDA (Food and Drug Administration); this might be useful in comparing the individual country registers and also would help in delivering "evidence based" medicine in cosmetic and medical procedures

  15. Time trends in socio-economic inequalities for women and men with disabilities in Australia: evidence of persisting inequalities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavanagh, Anne M; Krnjacki, Lauren; Beer, Andrew; Lamontagne, Anthony D; Bentley, Rebecca

    2013-08-29

    The socio-economic circumstances and health of people with disabilities has been relatively ignored in public health research, policy and practice in Australia and internationally. This is despite emerging evidence that the socio-economic circumstances that people with disabilities live in contributes to their poorer health. Compared to other developed countries, Australians with disabilities are more likely to live in disadvantaged circumstances, despite being an economically prosperous country; it is therefore likely that the socio-economic disadvantage experienced by Australians with disabilities makes a significant contribution to their health. Despite the importance of this issue Australia does not routinely monitor the socio-economic inequalities for people with disabilities. This paper addresses this gap by describing time trends in socio-economic conditions for Australians with and without disabilities according to the severity of the disability and sex. Cross-sectional analyses of the Australian Bureau of Statistics Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers were carried out at three time points (1998, 2003 and 2009) to estimate the proportions of women and men (aged between 25 and 64 years) who were living on low incomes, had not completed year 12, were not in paid work, living in private rental and experiencing multiple disadvantage (three or more of the indicators). People with disabilities are less likely to have completed year 12, be in paid work and are more likely to be living on low incomes and experiencing multiple disadvantage. These conditions worsened with increasing severity of disability and increased or persisted over time, with most of the increase between 1998 and 2003. While women with milder disabilities tended to fare worse than men, the proportions were similar for those with moderate and severe/profound disabilities. People with disabilities experience high levels of socio-economic disadvantage which has increased or persisted over time

  16. The Decoupling of Marriage and Parenthood? Trends in the Timing of Marital First Births, 1945–2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayford, Sarah R.; Guzzo, Karen Benjamin; Smock, Pamela J.

    2014-01-01

    Family formation changed dramatically over the twentieth century in the United States. The impact of these changes on childbearing has primarily been studied in terms of nonmarital fertility. However, changes in family formation behavior also have implications for fertility within marriage. We use data from ten fertility surveys to describe changes in the timing of marital childbearing from the 1940s through the 21st century for non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black women. Based on harmonized data from the Integrated Fertility Survey Series, our results suggest increasing divergence in fertility timing for white women. A growing proportion of marriages begin with a premarital conception; at the same time, an increasing proportion of white women are postponing fertility within marriage. For black women, marital fertility is increasingly postponed beyond the early years of marriage. Evaluating the sequencing of marriage and parenthood over time is critical to understanding the changing meaning of marriage. PMID:24791019

  17. Billing Trends

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Billing Trends. Internet access: Bandwidth becoming analogous to electric power. Only maximum capacity (load) is fixed; Charges based on usage (units). Leased line bandwidth: Billing analogous to phone calls. But bandwidth is variable.

  18. Trends in the prevalence of periodontitis in Taiwan from 1997 to 2013: A nationwide population-based retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hui-Chieh; Su, Ni-Yu; Huang, Jing-Yang; Lee, Shiuan-Shinn; Chang, Yu-Chao

    2017-11-01

    Periodontitis is one of the most prevalent oral diseases. In this study, we probed the nationwide registered database to assess the time trends of prevalence of periodontitis in Taiwan.A retrospective study was conducted to analyze the registered database compiled by the National Health Insurance provided by the Department of Health, Taiwan, from 1997 to December 2013.We found that the prevalence of periodontitis significantly increased from 11.5% in 1997 to 19.59% in 2013 (P for trend periodontitis from 1997 to 2013 was 54.46 ± 14.47 and 45.51 ± 16.58 years old, respectively. The proportion of individuals with periodontitis in age group >65 years old decreased markedly. The proportion of individuals with periodontitis in age groups periodontitis (male: RR, 67.42, 95% confidence interval [CI], 17.04-2