WorldWideScience

Sample records for based time trends

  1. Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.

    2014-05-01

    In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods that can analyze multidimensional time series. One important attribute of this method is that it is not dependent on any statistical assumption and does not need local stationarity in the time series. In this paper, it is shown how the FEM-clustering method can be used to locate change points in the trend of temperature time series from in situ observations. This method is applied to the temperature time series of North Carolina (NC) and the results represent region-specific climate variability despite higher frequency harmonics in climatic time series. Next, we investigated the relationship between the climatic indices with the clusters/trends detected based on this clustering method. It appears that the natural variability of climate change in NC during 1950-2009 can be explained mostly by AMO and solar activity.

  2. Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

    OpenAIRE

    Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.

    2014-01-01

    In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods ...

  3. Stratospheric Temperature Trends Observed by TIMED/SABER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, T.; Tan, R.

    2017-12-01

    Trends in the stratospheric temperature are studied based on the temperature profile observation from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). The spatially trends are evaluated in different time scales ranging from decadal to monthly resolved. The results indicate a signature of BDC acceleration. There are strong warming trends (up to 9 K/decade) in the middle to upper stratosphere in the high latitude spring, summer, and autumn seasons, accompanied by strong cooling trends in the lower stratosphere. Besides, strong warming trends occurs through the whole stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere, which confirms Antarctic ozone layer healing since 2000. In addition, the results demonstrate a significant warming trends in the middle of tropical stratosphere, which becomes strongest during June-July-August.

  4. Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

    2013-01-01

    Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

  5. Econophysics — complex correlations and trend switchings in financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preis, T.

    2011-03-01

    This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.

  6. Time trends in prostate cancer surgery: data from an Internet-based multicentre database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schostak, Martin; Baumunk, Daniel; Jagota, Anita; Klopf, Christian; Winter, Alexander; Schäfers, Sebastian; Kössler, Robert; Brennecke, Volker; Fischer, Tom; Hagel, Susanne; Höchel, Steffen; Jäkel, Dierk; Lehsnau, Mike; Krege, Susanne; Rüffert, Bernd; Pretzer, Jana; Becht, Eduard; Zegenhagen, Thomas; Miller, Kurt; Weikert, Steffen

    2012-02-01

    To report our experience with an Internet-based multicentre database that enables tumour documentation, as well as the collection of quality-related parameters and follow-up data, in surgically treated patients with prostate cancer. The system was used to assess the quality of prostate cancer surgery and to analyze possible time-dependent trends in the quality of care. An Internet-based database system enabled a standardized collection of treatment data and clinical findings from the participating urological centres for the years 2005-2009. An analysis was performed aiming to evaluate relevant patient characteristics (age, pathological tumour stage, preoperative International Index of Erectile Function-5 score), intra-operative parameters (operating time, percentage of nerve-sparing operations, complication rate, transfusion rate, number of resected lymph nodes) and postoperative parameters (hospitalization time, re-operation rate, catheter indwelling time). Mean values were calculated and compared for each annual cohort from 2005 to 2008. The overall survival rate was also calculated for a subgroup of the Berlin patients. A total of 914, 1120, 1434 and 1750 patients submitted to radical prostatectomy in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 were documented in the database. The mean age at the time of surgery remained constant (66 years) during the study period. More than half the patients already had erectile dysfunction before surgery (median International Index of Erectile Function-5 score of 19-20). During the observation period, there was a decrease in the percentage of pT2 tumours (1% in 2005; 64% in 2008) and a slight increase in the percentage of patients with lymph node metastases (8% in 2005; 10% in 2008). No time trend was found for the operating time (142-155 min) or the percentage of nerve-sparing operations (72-78% in patients without erectile dysfunction). A decreasing frequency was observed for the parameters: blood transfusions (1.9% in 2005; 0.5% in 2008

  7. Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Chaolong

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM (1,1 is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changing trend of track irregularity at a fixed measuring point; the stochastic linear AR, Kalman filtering model, and artificial neural network model are applied to predict the short-term changing trend of track irregularity at unit section. Both long-term and short-term changes prove that the model is effective and can achieve the expected accuracy.

  8. Seasonal adjustment methods and real time trend-cycle estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Bee Dagum, Estela

    2016-01-01

    This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportat...

  9. Markov Trends in Macroeconomic Time Series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Paap (Richard)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractMany macroeconomic time series are characterised by long periods of positive growth, expansion periods, and short periods of negative growth, recessions. A popular model to describe this phenomenon is the Markov trend, which is a stochastic segmented trend where the slope depends on the

  10. Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai

    2017-01-01

    We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; ponline trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R 2 =0.345; ponline trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.

  11. Time trends in the natural dizygotic twinning rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derom, Catherine; Gielen, Marij; Peeters, Hilde; Frijns, Jean-Pierre; Zeegers, Maurice P A

    2011-08-01

    The natural dizygotic (DZ) twinning rate has been proposed as a reliable and useful measure of human fecundity, if adjusted for maternal age at twin birth. The aim of this study was to analyze age-adjusted trends in natural DZ twinning rates over the past 40 years using data from the 'East Flanders Prospective Twin Survey (EFPTS)'. This study involved 4835 naturally conceived twin pregnancies between 1969 and 2009 from the population-based Belgian 'EFPTS'. Age-adjusted trends in the incidence of natural DZ twin pregnancies were calculated using a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution. Both the natural DZ twinning rates and maternal age at twin birth increased in a linear fashion from 1969 to 2009. When age-adjusted, we found that the trend in the natural DZ twinning rate was stable during the whole time period. According to our population-based data and after age-adjustment, a stable natural DZ twinning rate could be observed over the last four decades. Under the assumption that the spontaneous DZ twinning rate is a sensor of fecundity, this indicates a stable 'high' fecundity for this population.

  12. Time trends in axilla management among early breast cancer patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gondos, Adam; Jansen, Lina; Heil, Joerg

    2016-01-01

    Background We examined time trends in axilla management among patients with early breast cancer in European clinical settings. Material and methods EUROCANPlatform partners, including population-based and cancer center-specific registries, provided routinely available clinical cancer registry data...... for a comparative study of axillary management trends among patients with first non-metastatic breast cancer who were not selected for neoadjuvant therapy during the last decade. We used an additional short questionnaire to compare clinical care patterns in 2014. Results Patients treated in cancer centers were...... younger than population-based registry populations. Tumor size and lymph node status distributions varied little between settings or over time. In 2003, sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) use varied between 26% and 81% for pT1 tumors, and between 2% and 68% for pT2 tumors. By 2010, SLNB use increased to 79...

  13. In search of functional association from time-series microarray data based on the change trend and level of gene expression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeng An-Ping

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The increasing availability of time-series expression data opens up new possibilities to study functional linkages of genes. Present methods used to infer functional linkages between genes from expression data are mainly based on a point-to-point comparison. Change trends between consecutive time points in time-series data have been so far not well explored. Results In this work we present a new method based on extracting main features of the change trend and level of gene expression between consecutive time points. The method, termed as trend correlation (TC, includes two major steps: 1, calculating a maximal local alignment of change trend score by dynamic programming and a change trend correlation coefficient between the maximal matched change levels of each gene pair; 2, inferring relationships of gene pairs based on two statistical extraction procedures. The new method considers time shifts and inverted relationships in a similar way as the local clustering (LC method but the latter is merely based on a point-to-point comparison. The TC method is demonstrated with data from yeast cell cycle and compared with the LC method and the widely used Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC based clustering method. The biological significance of the gene pairs is examined with several large-scale yeast databases. Although the TC method predicts an overall lower number of gene pairs than the other two methods at a same p-value threshold, the additional number of gene pairs inferred by the TC method is considerable: e.g. 20.5% compared with the LC method and 49.6% with the PCC method for a p-value threshold of 2.7E-3. Moreover, the percentage of the inferred gene pairs consistent with databases by our method is generally higher than the LC method and similar to the PCC method. A significant number of the gene pairs only inferred by the TC method are process-identity or function-similarity pairs or have well-documented biological

  14. Temporal trend of carpal tunnel release surgery: a population-based time series analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naif Fnais

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Carpal tunnel release (CTR is among the most common hand surgeries, although little is known about its pattern. In this study, we aimed to investigate temporal trends, age and gender variation and current practice patterns in CTR surgeries. METHODS: We conducted a population-based time series analysis among over 13 million residents of Ontario, who underwent operative management for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS from April 1, 1992 to March 31, 2010 using administrative claims data. RESULTS: The primary analysis revealed a fairly stable procedure rate of approximately 10 patients per 10,000 population per year receiving CTRs without any significant, consistent temporal trend (p = 0.94. Secondary analyses revealed different trends in procedure rates according to age. The annual procedure rate among those age >75 years increased from 22 per 10,000 population at the beginning of the study period to over 26 patients per 10,000 population (p<0.01 by the end of the study period. CTR surgical procedures were approximately two-fold more common among females relative to males (64.9% vs. 35.1 respectively; p<0.01. Lastly, CTR procedures are increasingly being conducted in the outpatient setting while procedures in the inpatient setting have been declining steadily - the proportion of procedures performed in the outpatient setting increased from 13% to over 30% by 2010 (p<0.01. CONCLUSION: Overall, CTR surgical-procedures are conducted at a rate of approximately 10 patients per 10,000 population annually with significant variation with respect to age and gender. CTR surgical procedures in ambulatory-care facilities may soon outpace procedure rates in the in-hospital setting.

  15. Statistical analysis of strait time index and a simple model for trend and trend reversal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Kan; Jayaprakash, C.

    2003-06-01

    We analyze the daily closing prices of the Strait Time Index (STI) as well as the individual stocks traded in Singapore's stock market from 1988 to 2001. We find that the Hurst exponent is approximately 0.6 for both the STI and individual stocks, while the normal correlation functions show the random walk exponent of 0.5. We also investigate the conditional average of the price change in an interval of length T given the price change in the previous interval. We find strong correlations for price changes larger than a threshold value proportional to T; this indicates that there is no uniform crossover to Gaussian behavior. A simple model based on short-time trend and trend reversal is constructed. We show that the model exhibits statistical properties and market swings similar to those of the real market.

  16. Time Trends in Breast Cancer Among Indian Women Population: An Analysis of Population Based Cancer Registry Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaturvedi, Meesha; Vaitheeswaran, K; Satishkumar, K; Das, Priyanka; Stephen, S; Nandakumar, A

    2015-12-01

    The trends observed in cancer breast among Indian women are an indication of effect of changing lifestyle in population. To draw an appropriate inference regarding the trends of a particular type of cancer in a country, it is imperative to glance at the reliable data collected by Population Based Cancer Registries over a period of time. To give an insight of changing trends of breast cancer which have taken place over a period of time among women in Cancer Registries of India. Breast Cancer trends for invasive breast cancer in women in Indian Registries have varied during the selected period. Occurrence of breast cancers has also shown geographical variation in India. This data was collected by means of a 'Standard Core Proforma' designed by NCRP conforming to the data fields as suggested by International norms. The Proforma was filled by trained Registry workers based on interview/ hospital medical records/ supplementing data by inputs from treating surgeons/radiation oncologists/involved physicians/pathologists. The contents of the Proforma are entered into specifically created software and transmitted electronically to the coordinating center at Bangalore. The registries contributing to more number of years of data are called as older registries, while other recently established registries are called newer registries. While there has been an increase recorded in breast cancer in most of the registries, some of them have recorded an insignificant increase. Comparison of Age Adjusted Rates (AARs) among Indian Registries has been carried out after which trends observed in populations covered by Indian Registries are depicted. A variation in broad age groups of females and the proneness of females developing breast cancer over the period 1982 to 2010 has been shown. Comparisons of Indian registries with International counterparts have also been carried out. There are marked changes in incidence rates of cancer breast which have occurred in respective registries in a

  17. Trend time-series modeling and forecasting with neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Min; Zhang, G Peter

    2008-05-01

    Despite its great importance, there has been no general consensus on how to model the trends in time-series data. Compared to traditional approaches, neural networks (NNs) have shown some promise in time-series forecasting. This paper investigates how to best model trend time series using NNs. Four different strategies (raw data, raw data with time index, detrending, and differencing) are used to model various trend patterns (linear, nonlinear, deterministic, stochastic, and breaking trend). We find that with NNs differencing often gives meritorious results regardless of the underlying data generating processes (DGPs). This finding is also confirmed by the real gross national product (GNP) series.

  18. An Innovative Fuzzy-Logic-Based Methodology for Trend Identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xin; Tsoukalas, Lefteri H.; Wei, Thomas Y.C.; Reifman, Jaques

    2001-01-01

    A new fuzzy-logic-based methodology for on-line signal trend identification is introduced. The methodology may be used for detecting the onset of nuclear power plant (NPP) transients at the earliest possible time and could be of great benefit to diagnostic, maintenance, and performance-monitoring programs. Although signal trend identification is complicated by the presence of noise, fuzzy methods can help capture important features of on-line signals, integrate the information included in these features, and classify incoming NPP signals into increasing, decreasing, and steady-state trend categories. A computer program named PROTREN is developed and tested for the purpose of verifying this methodology using NPP and simulation data. The results indicate that the new fuzzy-logic-based methodology is capable of detecting transients accurately, it identifies trends reliably and does not misinterpret a steady-state signal as a transient one

  19. Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi

    2017-04-01

    Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological

  20. Time trends of perfluorinated compounds from the sediment core of Tokyo Bay, Japan (1950s-2004)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zushi, Yasuyuki; Tamada, Masafumi; Kanai, Yutaka; Masunaga, Shigeki

    2010-01-01

    Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) were detected in sediment core samples collected in Tokyo Bay to reveal their time trends. The core sample deposited during 1950s-2004 was divided into two- to three-year intervals and the concentrations of 24 types of PFCs were determined. Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) decreased gradually from the early 1990s and its precursor decreased rapidly in the late 1990s, whereas perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) increased rapidly. The observed trends were regarded as a reflection of the shift from perfluorooctyl sulfonyl fluoride (PFOSF)-based products to telomer-based products after the phaseout of PFOSF-based products in 2001. The branched isomers of perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA) and perfluorotridecanoic acid (PFTrDA) were detected in the sample with its ratio of linear-isomer/branched-isomer concentrations decreasing. In this study, we revealed that the sediment core can serve as a tool for reconstructing the past pollution trend of PFCs and can provide interesting evidence concerning their environmental dynamics and time trend. - This study reports the time trends of the concentrations of 24 species of PFCs, including FTCA, FTUCA and FOSAA, in a sediment core of Tokyo Bay, Japan.

  1. Time trends in physical activity in leisure time in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Christina Bjørk; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Helge, Jørn Wulff

    2010-01-01

    AIMS: To examine time trends in leisure-time physical activity in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005. METHODS: Analyses were based on four national representative population surveys of 4752 respondents in 1987, 4667 in 1994, 16,688 in 2000, and 14,566 in 2005. Associations between leisure......-time physical activity (dichotomised into high versus low) and temporal changes according to year of birth, age, and calendar-year were estimated in an age-period-cohort logistic regression model. Time trends in socioeconomic differences in physical activity were analysed by testing interaction terms. RESULTS......: The odds ratio (OR) of being highly physically active in leisure time in 2005 compared to 1987 was 1.6 (95% CI: 1.3-1.9) among men and 1.8 (95% CI: 1.5-2.2) among women. The age- and calendar-year-adjusted probability of being highly physically active increased with year of birth. The OR of being highly...

  2. Investment innovation trends: Factor-based investing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanja Centineo

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This article shows that it can take a long period of time until research knowledge finds its application in practice and get disseminated as innovation trend. Factor-based investing is such an example. Having its developing roots in the nineties, it took more than two decades until this approach was detected by the by investment community. The goal of this article is to recall the definition of factor investing, present its historical evolvement and motivate its recent break-through and current trend among investment practitioners (known also under the notion smart beta. It aims at familiarizing with this investment approach from a practical perspective and highlighting its diversifying benefits in a portfolio context with the potential to outperform the market on risk-adjusted basis.

  3. Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

    2008-01-01

    or girls. A majority of the panelists agreed that data are sufficient to suggest a trend toward an earlier breast development onset and menarche in girls but not for other female pubertal markers. A minority of panelists concluded that the current data on girls' puberty timing for any marker...... are insufficient. Almost all panelists concluded, on the basis of few studies and reliability issues of some male puberty markers, that current data for boys are insufficient to evaluate secular trends in male pubertal development. The panel agreed that altered puberty timing should be considered an adverse effect......Whether children, especially girls, are entering and progressing through puberty earlier today than in the mid-1900s has been debated. Secular trend analysis, based on available data, is limited by data comparability among studies in different populations, in different periods of time, and using...

  4. Trend Over Time for Cholecystectomy following the Introduction of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2018-03-05

    Mar 5, 2018 ... Trend Over Time for Cholecystectomy following the Introduction of. Laparoscopy in a Nigerian Tertiary ... How to cite this article: Adisa AO, Lawal OO, Adejuyigbe O. Trend over time for cholecystectomy following .... The challenges with record keeping in the era of open cholecystectomy in our center made it ...

  5. Time Trends in School Well-Being Among Adolescents in Oslo: Can Trends be Explained by Social Relationships?

    OpenAIRE

    Wilhelmsen, Tiril

    2017-01-01

    Even though well-being in the domain of school is important for mental health, time trend research of this topic is limited. In particular, there is a lack of research investigating differences between ethnic minority and majority students, and there is a lack of literature empirically exploring possible explanations for the time trends in school well-being. The aims of this study were to investigate time trends in school well-being among adolescents in Oslo, explore moderations by gender and...

  6. Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus...... as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...... are rather modest when individual exposures are assessed. Despite that, some exposures have been reported to be associated to early (e.g., polybrominated biphenyls) or delayed (e.g., lead) puberty. Here we shortly review the available data on recent trends in timing of puberty and the possible role...

  7. Analysis of the development trend of China’s business administration based on time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang Rui

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available On the general direction of the economic system, China is in a crucial period of the establishment of the modern enterprise system and reform of the macroeconomic system, and a lot of high-quality business administration talents are required to make China’s economy be stably developed. This paper carries out time series analysis of the development situation of China’s business administration major: on the whole, the society currently presents an upward trend on the demand for the business administration talents. With the gradually increasing demand for the business administration talents, various colleges and universities also set up the business administration major to train a large number of administration talents, thus leading to an upward trend for the academic focus on business administration.

  8. Time trends in absolute and relative socioeconomic inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in northern Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szilcz, Máté; Mosquera, Paola A; Sebastián, Miguel San; Gustafsson, Per E

    2018-02-01

    The aim was to investigate the time trends in educational, occupational, and income-related inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in 2006, 2010, and 2014 in northern Swedish women and men. This study was based on data obtained from the repeated cross-sectional Health on Equal Terms survey of 2006, 2010, and 2014. The analytical sample consisted of 20,667 (2006), 31,787 (2010), and 21,613 (2014) individuals, aged 16-84. Logistic regressions were used to model the probability of physical inactivity given a set of explanatory variables. Slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII) were used as summary measures of the social gradient in physical inactivity. The linear trend in inequalities and difference between gender and years were estimated by interaction analyses. The year 2010 displayed the highest physical inactivity inequalities for all socioeconomic position indicators, but educational and occupational inequalities decreased in 2014. However, significant positive linear trends were found in absolute and relative income inequalities. Moreover, women had significantly higher RII of education in physical inactivity in 2014 and significantly higher SII and RII of income in physical inactivity in 2010, than did men in the same years. The recent reduction in educational and occupational inequalities following the high inequalities around the time of the great recession in 2010 suggests that the current policies might be fairly effective. However, to eventually alleviate inequities in physical inactivity, the focus of the researchers and policymakers should be directed toward the widening trends of income inequalities in physical inactivity.

  9. On the Use of Running Trends as Summary Statistics for Univariate Time Series and Time Series Association

    OpenAIRE

    Trottini, Mario; Vigo, Isabel; Belda, Santiago

    2015-01-01

    Given a time series, running trends analysis (RTA) involves evaluating least squares trends over overlapping time windows of L consecutive time points, with overlap by all but one observation. This produces a new series called the “running trends series,” which is used as summary statistics of the original series for further analysis. In recent years, RTA has been widely used in climate applied research as summary statistics for time series and time series association. There is no doubt that ...

  10. De-trending of turbulence measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

    2007-01-01

    based on time series statistics only. The performance of the proposed de-trending algorithm is assessed using huge number of time series recorded at different types of terrain and orography. The strategy is the following: Based on the available time series information a conventional (linear) time series...... de-trending is performed and subsequently compared with the prediction from the proposed algorithm. The de-trended turbulence intensities are reduced in the range of 3 – 15 % compared to the raw turbulence intensity. The performed analysis shows that the proposed model, based on statistical...... this requires access to the basic time-series. However, including a suitable modelling of the mean wind speed time variation, it is possible to estimate an approximate (linear) trend correction based on statistical data only. This paper presents such an algorithm for de-trending of turbulence standard deviation...

  11. Real-time trend monitoring of gas compressor stations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Hardeveld, T. (Nova, an Alberta Corp., AB (Canada))

    1991-02-01

    The authors' company has developed a machinery health monitoring system (MHealth) for short-term and long-term historical trending and analysis of data from its 40 gas compressor stations. The author discusses the benefits of real-time trending in troubleshooting operations, in preventative maintenance scheduling and cites specific applications in the startup operations of several new gas compressor/centrifugal compressor units.

  12. Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus...... as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...

  13. Time trends of physical activity and television viewing time in Brazil: 2006-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mielke, Grégore I; Hallal, Pedro C; Malta, Deborah C; Lee, I-Min

    2014-08-15

    Despite recent advances in surveillance of physical activity, data on time trends of physical activity in low and middle-income countries are lacking. This study describes time trends in physical activity and television viewing between 2006 and 2012 among Brazilian adults. Data from 371,271 adult participants (18 + years) in the Surveillance System for Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Illnesses using Telephone Survey (VIGITEL) were analysed. Time trends in leisure-time physical activity (≥ 5 days/wk; ≥ 30 min/day), transportation physical activity (using bicycle or walking for ≥ 30 minutes per day as a means of transportation to/from work) and proportion of participants spending more than three hours per day watching television were analysed. Annual changes according to sex, age and years of schooling were calculated. There was an increase in leisure-time physical activity from 12.8% in 2006 to 14.9% in 2012 (annual increase of 1.9%; p physical activity decreased 12.9% per year (p physical activity appears to be increasing, while television viewing time appears to be decreasing in recent years. However, transportation physical activity has been declining. These data are important for informing national public health policies.

  14. Longitudinal evaluation of a World Wide Web-based antimicrobial stewardship program: assessing factors associated with approval patterns and trends over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venugopal, Vidya; Lehmann, Christoph U; Diener-West, Marie; Agwu, Allison L

    2014-02-01

    The Johns Hopkins Children's Medical and Surgery Center developed a Web-based Antimicrobial Stewardship Program (ASP) in 2005. The present study aimed to assess longitudinal antimicrobial request and approval patterns for this ASP. We analyzed a total of 16,229 antimicrobial requests for 3,542 patients between June 1, 2005, and June 30, 2009. Antimicrobial approval was the outcome of interest. We assessed gaming by studying trends in automatically approved requests. Nonparametric tests for trend were performed to detect changes in approval patterns. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with approval. The vast majority (91.3%) of antimicrobial requests were approved, with an increase of 6.1% over time (P Web-based ASP allows management of a large number of antimicrobial requests, without apparent gaming. Observed differences in approval patterns based on patient, requestor, and antimicrobial factors may inform the development of ASPs and evaluation of provider education and training. Copyright © 2014 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Three measures of longevity: time trends and record values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Canudas-Romo, V

    2010-01-01

    at birth increased from a level of 44 years in Sweden in 1840 to 82 years in Japan in 2005. The record median age at death shows increasing patterns similar to those observed in life expectancy at birth. However, the record modal age at death changes very little until the second half of the twentieth......This article examines the trend over time in the measures of “typical” longevity experienced by members of a population: life expectancy at birth, and the median and modal ages at death. The article also analyzes trends in record values observed for all three measures. The record life expectancy...... time from a dominance of child mortality reductions to a dominance of adult mortality reductions, which became evident by studying trends in the record modal age at death....

  16. Methodological issues in analyzing time trends in biologic fertility: protection bias

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Key, Jane; Best, Nicky; Joffe, Michael

    2009-01-01

    One method of assessing biologic fertility is to measure time to pregnancy (TTP). Accidental pregnancies do not generate a valid TTP value and lead to nonrandom missing data if couples experiencing accidental pregnancies are more fertile than the general population. If factors affecting the rate...... of fertility trends in Europe over the past 50 years. Couples experiencing accidental pregnancies tended to be more fertile than the general population. However, trends in accidental pregnancy rates were inconsistent across countries and were insufficient to produce substantial bias in fertility trends...... of accidental pregnancies, such as availability of effective contraception and induced abortion, vary over time, then the result may be protection bias in the estimates of fertility time trends. Six European data sets were analyzed to investigate whether evidence of protection bias exists in TTP studies...

  17. Time Delay Systems Methods, Applications and New Trends

    CERN Document Server

    Vyhlídal, Tomáš; Niculescu, Silviu-Iulian; Pepe, Pierdomenico

    2012-01-01

    This volume is concerned with the control and dynamics of time delay systems; a research field with at least six-decade long history that has been very active especially in the past two decades. In parallel to the new challenges emerging from engineering, physics, mathematics, and economics, the volume covers several new directions including topology induced stability, large-scale interconnected systems, roles of networks in stability, and new trends in predictor-based control and consensus dynamics. The associated applications/problems are described by highly complex models, and require solving inverse problems as well as the development of new theories, mathematical tools, numerically-tractable algorithms for real-time control. The volume, which is targeted to present these developments in this rapidly evolving field, captures a careful selection of the most recent papers contributed by experts and collected under five parts: (i) Methodology: From Retarded to Neutral Continuous Delay Models, (ii) Systems, S...

  18. Modeling pollen time series using seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOESS smoothing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojo, Jesús; Rivero, Rosario; Romero-Morte, Jorge; Fernández-González, Federico; Pérez-Badia, Rosa

    2017-02-01

    Analysis of airborne pollen concentrations provides valuable information on plant phenology and is thus a useful tool in agriculture-for predicting harvests in crops such as the olive and for deciding when to apply phytosanitary treatments-as well as in medicine and the environmental sciences. Variations in airborne pollen concentrations, moreover, are indicators of changing plant life cycles. By modeling pollen time series, we can not only identify the variables influencing pollen levels but also predict future pollen concentrations. In this study, airborne pollen time series were modeled using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOcally wEighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS) smoothing (STL). The data series-daily Poaceae pollen concentrations over the period 2006-2014-was broken up into seasonal and residual (stochastic) components. The seasonal component was compared with data on Poaceae flowering phenology obtained by field sampling. Residuals were fitted to a model generated from daily temperature and rainfall values, and daily pollen concentrations, using partial least squares regression (PLSR). This method was then applied to predict daily pollen concentrations for 2014 (independent validation data) using results for the seasonal component of the time series and estimates of the residual component for the period 2006-2013. Correlation between predicted and observed values was r = 0.79 (correlation coefficient) for the pre-peak period (i.e., the period prior to the peak pollen concentration) and r = 0.63 for the post-peak period. Separate analysis of each of the components of the pollen data series enables the sources of variability to be identified more accurately than by analysis of the original non-decomposed data series, and for this reason, this procedure has proved to be a suitable technique for analyzing the main environmental factors influencing airborne pollen concentrations.

  19. Time-trends in gastroprotection with NSAIDs

    OpenAIRE

    Valkhoff , Vera E.; Van Soest , Eva Marianne; Sturkenboom , Miriam C; Kuipers , Ernst J

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background: Preventive strategies are advocated in patients at risk of upper gastrointestinal (UGI) complications associated with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). Aim: We examined time trends in preventive strategies. Methods: In a study population comprising of 50,126 NSAID users ? 50 yrs from the Integrated Primary Care Information database, we considered two preventive strategies: co-prescription of gastroprotective agents and prescription of a cyc...

  20. Analysis of the Main Factors Influencing Food Production in China Based on Time Series Trend Chart

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shuangjin; WANG; Jianying; LI

    2014-01-01

    Based on the annual sample data on food production in China since the reform and opening up,we select 8 main factors influencing the total food production( growing area,application rate of chemical fertilizer,effective irrigation area,the affected area,total machinery power,food production cost index,food production price index,financial funds for supporting agriculture,farmers and countryside),and put them into categories of material input,resources and environment,and policy factors. Using the factor analysis,we carry out the multi-angle analysis of these typical influencing factors one by one through the time series trend chart. It is found that application rate of chemical fertilizer,the growing area of food crops and drought-affected area become the key factors affecting food production. On this basis,we set forth the corresponding recommendations for improving the comprehensive food production capacity.

  1. Detecting trends in forest disturbance and recovery using yearly Landsat time series: 1. LandTrendr — Temporal segmentation algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Kennedy; Zhiqiang Yang; Warren B. Cohen

    2010-01-01

    We introduce and test LandTrendr (Landsat-based detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery), a new approach to extract spectral trajectories of land surface change from yearly Landsat time-series stacks (LTS). The method brings together two themes in time-series analysis of LTS: capture of short-duration events and smoothing of long-term trends. Our strategy is...

  2. Analysis of the development trend of China’s business administration based on time series

    OpenAIRE

    Jiang Rui

    2016-01-01

    On the general direction of the economic system, China is in a crucial period of the establishment of the modern enterprise system and reform of the macroeconomic system, and a lot of high-quality business administration talents are required to make China’s economy be stably developed. This paper carries out time series analysis of the development situation of China’s business administration major: on the whole, the society currently presents an upward trend on the demand for the business adm...

  3. A practical procedure for the selection of time-to-failure models based on the assessment of trends in maintenance data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Louit, D.M.; Pascual, R.; Jardine, A.K.S.

    2009-01-01

    Many times, reliability studies rely on false premises such as independent and identically distributed time between failures assumption (renewal process). This can lead to erroneous model selection for the time to failure of a particular component or system, which can in turn lead to wrong conclusions and decisions. A strong statistical focus, a lack of a systematic approach and sometimes inadequate theoretical background seem to have made it difficult for maintenance analysts to adopt the necessary stage of data testing before the selection of a suitable model. In this paper, a framework for model selection to represent the failure process for a component or system is presented, based on a review of available trend tests. The paper focuses only on single-time-variable models and is primarily directed to analysts responsible for reliability analyses in an industrial maintenance environment. The model selection framework is directed towards the discrimination between the use of statistical distributions to represent the time to failure ('renewal approach'); and the use of stochastic point processes ('repairable systems approach'), when there may be the presence of system ageing or reliability growth. An illustrative example based on failure data from a fleet of backhoes is included.

  4. Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

    1999-02-01

    The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

  5. Time series trends of the safety effects of pavement resurfacing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Juneyoung; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Jung-Han

    2017-04-01

    This study evaluated the safety performance of pavement resurfacing projects on urban arterials in Florida using the observational before and after approaches. The safety effects of pavement resurfacing were quantified in the crash modification factors (CMFs) and estimated based on different ranges of heavy vehicle traffic volume and time changes for different severity levels. In order to evaluate the variation of CMFs over time, crash modification functions (CMFunctions) were developed using nonlinear regression and time series models. The results showed that pavement resurfacing projects decrease crash frequency and are found to be more safety effective to reduce severe crashes in general. Moreover, the results of the general relationship between the safety effects and time changes indicated that the CMFs increase over time after the resurfacing treatment. It was also found that pavement resurfacing projects for the urban roadways with higher heavy vehicle volume rate are more safety effective than the roadways with lower heavy vehicle volume rate. Based on the exploration and comparison of the developed CMFucntions, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential functional form of the nonlinear regression models can be utilized to identify the trend of CMFs over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Statistical significance approximation in local trend analysis of high-throughput time-series data using the theory of Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Li C; Ai, Dongmei; Cram, Jacob A; Liang, Xiaoyi; Fuhrman, Jed A; Sun, Fengzhu

    2015-09-21

    Local trend (i.e. shape) analysis of time series data reveals co-changing patterns in dynamics of biological systems. However, slow permutation procedures to evaluate the statistical significance of local trend scores have limited its applications to high-throughput time series data analysis, e.g., data from the next generation sequencing technology based studies. By extending the theories for the tail probability of the range of sum of Markovian random variables, we propose formulae for approximating the statistical significance of local trend scores. Using simulations and real data, we show that the approximate p-value is close to that obtained using a large number of permutations (starting at time points >20 with no delay and >30 with delay of at most three time steps) in that the non-zero decimals of the p-values obtained by the approximation and the permutations are mostly the same when the approximate p-value is less than 0.05. In addition, the approximate p-value is slightly larger than that based on permutations making hypothesis testing based on the approximate p-value conservative. The approximation enables efficient calculation of p-values for pairwise local trend analysis, making large scale all-versus-all comparisons possible. We also propose a hybrid approach by integrating the approximation and permutations to obtain accurate p-values for significantly associated pairs. We further demonstrate its use with the analysis of the Polymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) microbial community time series from high-throughput sequencing data and found interesting organism co-occurrence dynamic patterns. The software tool is integrated into the eLSA software package that now provides accelerated local trend and similarity analysis pipelines for time series data. The package is freely available from the eLSA website: http://bitbucket.org/charade/elsa.

  7. Time Trends in Antipsychotic Drug Use in Patients with Dementia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Ane; Jensen-Dahm, Christina; Gasse, Christiane

    2015-01-01

    : To investigate time trends in use of antipsychotics and other psychotropic drugs in dementia care. METHODS: The study included longitudinal data on all Danish residents ≥65 years. The study population was defined on January 1 of each year from 2000-2012. Data included prescriptions, discharge diagnoses......, and somatic and psychiatric comorbidities. Multivariate time trend analyses of psychotropic drug use in patients with dementia within 4-year age bands were performed. RESULTS: Overall, among patients with dementia the prevalence of antipsychotic drug use decreased from 31.3% in 2000 to 20.4% in 2012...

  8. A practical procedure for the selection of time-to-failure models based on the assessment of trends in maintenance data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Louit, D.M. [Komatsu Chile, Av. Americo Vespucio 0631, Quilicura, Santiago (Chile)], E-mail: rpascual@ing.puc.cl; Pascual, R. [Centro de Mineria, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Av. Vicuna Mackenna 4860, Santiago (Chile); Jardine, A.K.S. [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto, 5 King' s College Road, Toronto, Ont., M5S 3G8 (Canada)

    2009-10-15

    Many times, reliability studies rely on false premises such as independent and identically distributed time between failures assumption (renewal process). This can lead to erroneous model selection for the time to failure of a particular component or system, which can in turn lead to wrong conclusions and decisions. A strong statistical focus, a lack of a systematic approach and sometimes inadequate theoretical background seem to have made it difficult for maintenance analysts to adopt the necessary stage of data testing before the selection of a suitable model. In this paper, a framework for model selection to represent the failure process for a component or system is presented, based on a review of available trend tests. The paper focuses only on single-time-variable models and is primarily directed to analysts responsible for reliability analyses in an industrial maintenance environment. The model selection framework is directed towards the discrimination between the use of statistical distributions to represent the time to failure ('renewal approach'); and the use of stochastic point processes ('repairable systems approach'), when there may be the presence of system ageing or reliability growth. An illustrative example based on failure data from a fleet of backhoes is included.

  9. Time trends of physical activity in Brazil (2006-2009).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallal, Pedro C; Knuth, Alan G; Reis, Rodrigo S; Rombaldi, Airton J; Malta, Deborah C; Iser, Betine P M; Bernal, Regina T I; Florindo, Alex A

    2011-09-01

    To examine time trends in physical activity (PA) in Brazilian state capitals from 2006 to 2009. This analysis is based on data from the Telephone-based Surveillance of Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases (VIGITEL) accounting for an annual sample of approximately 54,000 individuals. PA indicators were analyzed in free time (leisure), work, home and transportation, time spent in front of the television and inactivity considering all PA domains. Poisson regression models were used to measure the variation of indicators over time. We considered the changes corresponding to a regression coefficient different from zero as being statistically significant (p<0.05). The percentage of active commuters increased from 11.7 to 14.4% (p<0.001) whereas the proportion of physically inactive individuals in the four domains decreased from 11.7 to 8.7% (p<0.001). There were no significant changes in the other indicators. Women were less active than men in all indicators, except for household chores. However, in this indicator the percentage of active women decreased from 71.4 to 67.1% (p<0.001). Between 2006 and 2009, PA levels in the Brazilian population were stable during free time and household chores, but increased in transportation, resulting in a decrease in the percentage of inactive individuals. The continued monitoring and strengthening of VIGITEL are public health priorities, and PA is a key part of it. In the long run, PA evolution may be re-evaluated.

  10. Variation Trend Analysis of Runoff and Sediment Time Series Based on the R/S Analysis of Simulated Loess Tilled Slopes in the Loess Plateau, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ju Zhang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to illustrate the temporal variation of runoff and sediment of loess tilled slopes under successive rainfall conditions. Loess tilled slopes with four microtopography types (straight cultivated slope, artificial backhoe, artificial digging, and contour tillage under five slope gradients (5°, 10°, 15°, 20°, 25° were simulated and a rainfall intensity of 60 mm/h was adopted. The temporal trends of runoff and sediment yield were predicted based on the Rescaled Range (R/S analysis method. The results indicate that the Hurst indices of runoff time series and sediment time series are higher than 0.5, and a long-term positive correlation exists between the future and the past. This means that runoff and sediment of loess tilled slopes in the future will have the same trends as in the past. The results obtained by the classical R/S analysis method were the same as those of the modified R/S analysis method. The rationality and reliability of the R/S analysis method were further identified and the method can be used for predicting the trend of runoff and sediment yield. The correlation between the microtopography and the Hurst indices of the runoff and sediment yield time series, as well as between the slopes and the Hurst indices, were tested, and the result was that there was no significant correlation between them. The microtopography and slopes cannot affect the correlation and continuity of runoff and sediment yield time series. This study provides an effective method for predicting variations in the trends of runoff and sediment yield on loess tilled slopes.

  11. Interrupted time-series analysis: studying trends in neurosurgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Ricky H; Smieliauskas, Fabrice; Pan, I-Wen; Lam, Sandi K

    2015-12-01

    OBJECT Neurosurgery studies traditionally have evaluated the effects of interventions on health care outcomes by studying overall changes in measured outcomes over time. Yet, this type of linear analysis is limited due to lack of consideration of the trend's effects both pre- and postintervention and the potential for confounding influences. The aim of this study was to illustrate interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) as applied to an example in the neurosurgical literature and highlight ITSA's potential for future applications. METHODS The methods used in previous neurosurgical studies were analyzed and then compared with the methodology of ITSA. RESULTS The ITSA method was identified in the neurosurgical literature as an important technique for isolating the effect of an intervention (such as a policy change or a quality and safety initiative) on a health outcome independent of other factors driving trends in the outcome. The authors determined that ITSA allows for analysis of the intervention's immediate impact on outcome level and on subsequent trends and enables a more careful measure of the causal effects of interventions on health care outcomes. CONCLUSIONS ITSA represents a significant improvement over traditional observational study designs in quantifying the impact of an intervention. ITSA is a useful statistical procedure to understand, consider, and implement as the field of neurosurgery evolves in sophistication in big-data analytics, economics, and health services research.

  12. Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yingbin; Jiao, Yan

    2015-05-01

    The instantaneous total mortality rate ( Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis, abundance and catch forecast, and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort (CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method, the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time, but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant, and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z, and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates (the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore, the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them, but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997, and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.

  13. Time trends in human fecundability in Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H; Rylander, Lars; Carstensen, Lisbeth

    2008-01-01

    ,000 primiparous women 20 years of age and older in the nationwide Swedish Medical Birth Registry from 1983 through 2002. This age restriction led to an exclusion of 10% of primiparous pregnancies. Subfertility (TTP > or =1 year) was analyzed as a function of maternal age, calendar time at initiation of attempt...... increased with age, except that for women in their late 1930s, an apparent decrease was observed, particularly among the early cohorts. CONCLUSION: We found decreasing subfertility over time. We speculate that these patterns might be related to a Sweden-specific decrease over time in sexually transmitted...... diseases, to changes in sexual behavior induced by socioeconomic conditions, or to broader biologic or educational trends....

  14. Using exogenous variables in testing for monotonic trends in hydrologic time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alley, William M.

    1988-01-01

    One approach that has been used in performing a nonparametric test for monotonic trend in a hydrologic time series consists of a two-stage analysis. First, a regression equation is estimated for the variable being tested as a function of an exogenous variable. A nonparametric trend test such as the Kendall test is then performed on the residuals from the equation. By analogy to stagewise regression and through Monte Carlo experiments, it is demonstrated that this approach will tend to underestimate the magnitude of the trend and to result in some loss in power as a result of ignoring the interaction between the exogenous variable and time. An alternative approach, referred to as the adjusted variable Kendall test, is demonstrated to generally have increased statistical power and to provide more reliable estimates of the trend slope. In addition, the utility of including an exogenous variable in a trend test is examined under selected conditions.

  15. HYPE: a WFD tool for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends in groundwater time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Benjamin; Croiset, Nolwenn; Laurence, Gourcy

    2014-05-01

    The Water Framework Directive 2006/11/CE (WFD) on the protection of groundwater against pollution and deterioration asks Member States to identify significant and sustained upward trends in all bodies or groups of bodies of groundwater that are characterised as being at risk in accordance with Annex II to Directive 2000/60/EC. The Directive indicates that the procedure for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends must be based on a statistical method. Moreover, for significant increases of concentrations of pollutants, trend reversals are identified as being necessary. This means to be able to identify significant trend reversals. A specific tool, named HYPE, has been developed in order to help stakeholders working on groundwater trend assessment. The R encoded tool HYPE provides statistical analysis of groundwater time series. It follows several studies on the relevancy of the use of statistical tests on groundwater data series (Lopez et al., 2011) and other case studies on the thematic (Bourgine et al., 2012). It integrates the most powerful and robust statistical tests for hydrogeological applications. HYPE is linked to the French national database on groundwater data (ADES). So monitoring data gathered by the Water Agencies can be directly processed. HYPE has two main modules: - a characterisation module, which allows to visualize time series. HYPE calculates the main statistical characteristics and provides graphical representations; - a trend module, which identifies significant breaks, trends and trend reversals in time series, providing result table and graphical representation (cf figure). Additional modules are also implemented to identify regional and seasonal trends and to sample time series in a relevant way. HYPE has been used successfully in 2012 by the French Water Agencies to satisfy requirements of the WFD, concerning characterization of groundwater bodies' qualitative status and evaluation of the risk of non-achievement of

  16. Trends in U.S. adult chronic disability rates over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kurtz, Stephen G; Rao, Sowmya R

    2014-10-01

    Trends in the patterns and prevalence of chronic disability among U.S. residents carry important implications for public health and public policies across multiple societal sectors. To examine trends in U.S. adult population rates of chronic disability from 1998 to 2011 using 7 different disability measures and examining the implications of trends in population age, race and ethnicity, and body mass index (BMI). We used National Health Interview Survey data on civilian, non-institutionalized U.S. residents ages ≥ 18 from selected years between 1998 and 2011. We used self-reported information on functional impairments, activity/participation limitations, and expected duration to create 7 chronic disability measures. We used direct standardization to account for changes in age, race/ethnicity, and BMI distributions over time. Multivariable logistic regression models identified associations of disability with sociodemographic characteristics. Without adjustment, population rates of all 7 disabilities increased significantly (p disability types continued to show increased rates over time (p disability. If these trends continue, the numbers and proportions of U.S. residents with various disabilities will continue rising in coming years. In particular, the prevalence of movement difficulties and work limitations will increase. Furthermore, disability will remain strongly associated with low levels of education, employment, and income. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

    2014-02-01

    The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the

  18. Time trends of chronic HBV infection over prior decades - A global analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, Jördis J; Horn, Johannes; Krause, Gérard; Mikolajczyk, Rafael T

    2017-01-01

    Information on trends in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevalence across countries is lacking. We studied changes in chronic HBV infection over previous decades by country, and assessed patterns of change between and within WHO-defined regions. Based on data from a published systematic review on chronic HBV, we applied a linear model on the logit scale to assess time trends in country-specific prevalence. Estimated HBsAg prevalence in 2000 and relative changes in prevalence over time were evaluated by country and region. Sufficient data were available for 50 countries, mostly showing reductions in prevalence over time. Various degrees of heterogeneity were observed within regions, with a relatively homogenous pattern in the Eastern Mediterranean region with strong decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Europe showed a mixed pattern: higher and stable chronic HBsAg prevalence in Eastern, and constantly low prevalence in Western Europe. In Africa, some countries demonstrated no change in prevalence; increases were seen in Uganda (odds ratio 1.05 per year; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.06), Nigeria (1.02; 1.02-1.02), Senegal (1.01; 1.01-1.02), and South Africa (1.02; 1.01-1.02). With some exceptions, country-patterns overlapped among countries of South East Asian and Western Pacific regions, characterized by low-medium HBsAg decreases, most prominent in China and Malaysia. Most countries experienced decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Dynamics varied, even within regions; decreases occurred mostly before the direct effects of childhood vaccination may have manifested. These findings together with stable and increasing HBsAg prevalence in some countries of Africa and Eastern Europe indicate the need for further tailored country-specific prevention. This study investigated time trends in prevalence of chronic HBV infection in 50 countries worldwide over the last decade, by estimating relative changes in prevalence. Results show decreases in chronic HBV infection in most countries

  19. Employment-based retirement plan participation: geographic differences and trends, 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copeland, Craig

    2011-10-01

    LATEST DATA: This Issue Brief examines the level of participation by workers in public- and private-sector employment-based pension or retirement plans, based on the U.S. Census Bureau's March 2011 Current Population Survey (CPS), the most recent data currently available (for year-end 2010). SPONSORSHIP RATE: Among all working-age (21-64) wage and salary employees, 54.2 percent worked for an employer or union that sponsored a retirement plan in 2010. Among full-time, full-year wage and salary workers ages 21-64 (those with the strongest connection to the work force), 61.6 percent worked for an employer or union that sponsors a plan. PARTICIPATION LEVEL: Among full-time, full-year wage and salary workers ages 21-64, 54.5 percent participated in a retirement plan. TREND: This is virtually unchanged from 54.4 percent in 2009. Participation trends increased significantly in the late 1990s, and decreased in 2001 and 2002. In 2003 and 2004, the participation trend flattened out. The retirement plan participation level subsequently declined in 2005 and 2006, before a significant increase in 2007. Slight declines occurred in 2008 and 2009, followed by a flattening out of the trend in 2010. AGE: Participation increased with age (61.4 percent for wage and salary workers ages 55-64, compared with 29.2 percent for those ages 21-24). GENDER: Among wage and salary workers ages 21-64, men had a higher participation level than women, but among full-time, full-year workers, women had a higher percentage participating than men (55.5 percent for women, compared with 53.8 percent for men). Female workers' lower probability of participation among wage and salary workers results from their overall lower earnings and lower rates of full-time work in comparison with males. RACE: Hispanic wage and salary workers were significantly less likely than both white and black workers to participate in a retirement plan. The gap between the percentages of black and white plan participants that

  20. Extreme Drought-induced Trend Changes in MODIS EVI Time Series in Yunnan, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Kaicheng; Zhou, Tao; Zhao, Xiang

    2014-01-01

    Extreme climatic events triggered by global climate change are expected to increase significantly hence research into vegetation response is crucial to evaluate environmental risk. Yunnan province, locating in southwest China, experienced an extreme drought event (from autumn of 2009 to spring of 2010), with the lowest percentage rainfall anomaly and the longest non-rain days in the past 50 years. This study aimed to explore the characteristics and differences in the response to drought of four land cover types in Yunnan province, including forest, grassland, shrub, and cropland during the period 2001-2011. We used remote sensing data, MODIS-derived EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) to study the vegetation responses to this extreme drought event. The EVI time series were decomposed into trend, seasonal and remainder components using BFAST (Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend) which accounts for seasonality and enables the detection of trend changes within the time series. The preliminary results showed that: (1) BFAST proved to be capable of detecting drought-induced trend changes in EVI time series. (2) Changes in the trend component over time consisted of both gradual and abrupt changes. (3) Different spatial patterns were found for abrupt and gradual changes. (4) Cropland exhibited an abrupt change, due to its sensitivity to severe drought, while the forest seemed least affected by the extreme drought

  1. Evaluation of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone trends over Western Europe from ground-based FTIR network observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Vigouroux

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Within the European project UFTIR (Time series of Upper Free Troposphere observations from an European ground-based FTIR network, six ground-based stations in Western Europe, from 79° N to 28° N, all equipped with Fourier Transform infrared (FTIR instruments and part of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC, have joined their efforts to evaluate the trends of several direct and indirect greenhouse gases over the period 1995–2004. The retrievals of CO, CH4, C2H6, N2O, CHClF2, and O3 have been optimized. Using the optimal estimation method, some vertical information can be obtained in addition to total column amounts. A bootstrap resampling method has been implemented to determine annual partial and total column trends for the target gases. The present work focuses on the ozone results. The retrieved time series of partial and total ozone columns are validated with ground-based correlative data (Brewer, Dobson, UV-Vis, ozonesondes, and Lidar. The observed total column ozone trends are in agreement with previous studies: 1 no total column ozone trend is seen at the lowest latitude station Izaña (28° N; 2 slightly positive total column trends are seen at the two mid-latitude stations Zugspitze and Jungfraujoch (47° N, only one of them being significant; 3 the highest latitude stations Harestua (60° N, Kiruna (68° N and Ny-Ålesund (79° N show significant positive total column trends. Following the vertical information contained in the ozone FTIR retrievals, we provide partial columns trends for the layers: ground-10 km, 10–18 km, 18–27 km, and 27–42 km, which helps to distinguish the contributions from dynamical and chemical changes on the total column ozone trends. We obtain no statistically significant trends in the ground-10 km layer for five out of the six ground-based stations. We find significant positive trends for the lowermost

  2. HESS Opinions "More efforts and scientific rigour are needed to attribute trends in flood time series"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hundecha

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The question whether the magnitude and frequency of floods have changed due to climate change or other drivers of change is of high interest. The number of flood trend studies is rapidly rising. When changes are detected, many studies link the identified change to the underlying causes, i.e. they attribute the changes in flood behaviour to certain drivers of change. We propose a hypothesis testing framework for trend attribution which consists of essential ingredients for a sound attribution: evidence of consistency, evidence of inconsistency, and provision of confidence statement. Further, we evaluate the current state-of-the-art of flood trend attribution. We assess how selected recent studies approach the attribution problem, and to which extent their attribution statements seem defendable. In our opinion, the current state of flood trend attribution is poor. Attribution statements are mostly based on qualitative reasoning or even speculation. Typically, the focus of flood trend studies is the detection of change, i.e. the statistical analysis of time series, and attribution is regarded as an appendix: (1 flood time series are analysed by means of trend tests, (2 if a significant change is detected, a hypothesis on the cause of change is given, and (3 explanations or published studies are sought which support the hypothesis. We believe that we need a change in perspective and more scientific rigour: detection should be seen as an integral part of the more challenging attribution problem, and detection and attribution should be placed in a sound hypothesis testing framework.

  3. Fall prevalence, time trend and its related risk factors among elderly people in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Hong; Ouyang, Peng

    2017-11-01

    To study the fall prevalence, time trends and related risk factors among elderly people in the Chinese mainland from 2011 to 2013. Our data were from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2011 and 2013. The population sample included people aged 60 years and over. Whether the person had experienced fall accident in the last two years was used to measure fall incidence. The time trend and age groups were investigated through the chi-square test. The related risk factors were examined based on the binary logistic regression model. In 2011, 19.64% (95% CI, 18.66%, 20.67%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents and in 2013, 19.28% (95% CI, 18.46%, 20.13%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents. However, no significant difference was seen in the fall prevalence between 2011 and 2013. The fall prevalence among elderly people aged 66-70 declined significantly while that among people aged over 80 showed an increasing time trend. The fall prevalence was affected significantly by factors including age (66-70), gender, marital status, self-rated health, quantity of chronic diseases, quantity of disability items, activities of daily living and physical functioning. It is revealed the fall prevalence showed no increment from 2011 to 2013 but at a high level. More efforts should be made to reduce the fall prevalence, and special attention should be paid to the elderly people aged over 80 and older. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Arresting Strategy Based on Dynamic Criminal Networks Changing over Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junqing Yuan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate a sequence of dynamic criminal networks on a time series based on the dynamic network analysis (DNA. According to the change of networks’ structure, networks’ variation trend is analyzed to forecast its future structure. Finally, an optimal arresting time and priority list are designed based on our analysis. Better results can be expected than that based on social network analysis (SNA.

  5. Gender, Time and Inequality: Trends in Women's and Men's Paid Work, Unpaid Work and Free Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayer, Liana C.

    2005-01-01

    This analysis uses nationally representative time diary data from 1965, 1975 and 1998 to examine trends and gender differences in time use. Women continue to do more household labor than men; however, men have substantially increased time in core household activities such as cooking, cleaning and daily child care. Nonetheless, a 30-minute-per-day…

  6. Time trends of US hospitalization for esophageal disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonnenberg, Amnon

    2014-09-01

    The occurrence of reflux disease seems to be rising in the United States. The aim of the present study was to follow the time trends of hospitalization for gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and other esophageal disease during the past 4 decades. US hospital utilization data were available for individual years from 1970 to 2010 through the National Hospital Discharge Survey. Esophageal diagnoses were stratified by their ninth revision of the International Classification of Diseases codes. Annual hospitalizations were expressed as rates per 100,000 living US population. GERD was by far the most common esophageal disorder resulting in hospitalization. However, in only 5% of instances did GERD-related diagnoses constitute the primary cause of hospitalization. Between 1970 and 2010 the rates of GERD-related hospitalizations increased in an exponential manner almost 10-fold. This rise affected both sex and all age groups alike. A 3-fold rise was noted in hospitalizations for esophageal adenocarcinoma. Other esophageal diagnoses, such as achalasia, dyskinesia, or stricture were characterized by falling or stable trends. US hospitalization data show a continued exponential rise in the occurrence of GERD without any signs of leveling off. These trends are likely to represent ongoing changes in the underlying incidence and prevalence of the disease.

  7. Canadian population trends in leisure-time physical activity levels, 1981-1998.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce, Marny J; Katzmarzyk, Peter T

    2002-12-01

    Age, sex, geographic and temporal trends in leisure-time physical activity levels were examined using data from five national surveys conducted between 1981 and 1998. Physical activity energy expenditure (AEE) was higher among men compared to women, and in younger versus older adults. AEE increased from Eastern to Western Canada, with a significant temporal trend of increasing AEE. The prevalence of physical inactivity (expending importance of population-level physical activity surveillance and interventions.

  8. Detecting cognizable trends of gene expression in a time series ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This poses difficulties in conducting formal statistical tests of significance of ... The proposed algorithm captured known 'time-trends' in the simulated data with a high probability ... to draw valid inferences even when the sample size is small.

  9. Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

    2016-01-01

    Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective.

  10. Application of the Trend Filtering Algorithm for Photometric Time Series Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalan, Giri; Plavchan, Peter; van Eyken, Julian; Ciardi, David; von Braun, Kaspar; Kane, Stephen R.

    2016-08-01

    Detecting transient light curves (e.g., transiting planets) requires high-precision data, and thus it is important to effectively filter systematic trends affecting ground-based wide-field surveys. We apply an implementation of the Trend Filtering Algorithm (TFA) to the 2MASS calibration catalog and select Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) photometric time series data. TFA is successful at reducing the overall dispersion of light curves, however, it may over-filter intrinsic variables and increase “instantaneous” dispersion when a template set is not judiciously chosen. In an attempt to rectify these issues we modify the original TFA from the literature by including measurement uncertainties in its computation, including ancillary data correlated with noise, and algorithmically selecting a template set using clustering algorithms as suggested by various authors. This approach may be particularly useful for appropriately accounting for variable photometric precision surveys and/or combined data sets. In summary, our contributions are to provide a MATLAB software implementation of TFA and a number of modifications tested on synthetics and real data, summarize the performance of TFA and various modifications on real ground-based data sets (2MASS and PTF), and assess the efficacy of TFA and modifications using synthetic light curve tests consisting of transiting and sinusoidal variables. While the transiting variables test indicates that these modifications confer no advantage to transit detection, the sinusoidal variables test indicates potential improvements in detection accuracy.

  11. United States Forest Disturbance Trends Observed Using Landsat Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masek, Jeffrey G.; Goward, Samuel N.; Kennedy, Robert E.; Cohen, Warren B.; Moisen, Gretchen G.; Schleeweis, Karen; Huang, Chengquan

    2013-01-01

    Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing U.S. land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest disturbance across the conterminous United States for 1985-2005. The geographic sample design used a probability-based scheme to encompass major forest types and maximize geographic dispersion. For each sample location disturbance was identified in the Landsat series using the Vegetation Change Tracker (VCT) algorithm. The NAFD analysis indicates that, on average, 2.77 Mha/yr of forests were disturbed annually, representing 1.09%/yr of US forestland. These satellite-based national disturbance rates estimates tend to be lower than those derived from land management inventories, reflecting both methodological and definitional differences. In particular the VCT approach used with a biennial time step has limited sensitivity to low-intensity disturbances. Unlike prior satellite studies, our biennial forest disturbance rates vary by nearly a factor of two between high and low years. High western US disturbance rates were associated with active fire years and insect activity, while variability in the east is more strongly related to harvest rates in managed forests. We note that generating a geographic sample based on representing forest type and variability may be problematic since the spatial pattern of disturbance does not necessarily correlate with forest type. We also find that the prevalence of diffuse, non-stand clearing disturbance in US forests makes the application of a biennial geographic sample problematic. Future satellite-based studies of disturbance at regional and national scales should focus on wall-to-wall analyses with annual time step for improved accuracy.

  12. FURTHER CONSIDERATIONS ON SPREADSHEET-BASED AUTOMATIC TREND LINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DANIEL HOMOCIANU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Most of the nowadays business applications working with data sets allow exports to the spreadsheet format. This fact is related to the experience of common business users with such products and to the possibility to couple what they have with something containing many models, functions and possibilities to process and represent data, by that getting something in dynamics and much more than a simple static less useful report. The purpose of Business Intelligence is to identify clusters, profiles, association rules, decision trees and many other patterns or even behaviours, but also to generate alerts for exceptions, determine trends and make predictions about the future based on historical data. In this context, the paper shows some practical results obtained after testing both the automatic creation of scatter charts and trend lines corresponding to the user’s preferences and the automatic suggesting of the most appropriate trend for the tested data mostly based on the statistical measure of how close they are to the regression function.

  13. Assessing satellite-based start-of-season trends in the US High Plains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, X; Sassenrath, G F; Hubbard, K G; Mahmood, R

    2014-01-01

    To adequately assess the effects of global warming it is necessary to address trends and impacts at the local level. This study examines phenological changes in the start-of-season (SOS) derived from satellite observations from 1982–2008 in the US High Plains region. The surface climate-based SOS was also evaluated. The averaged profiles of SOS from 37° to 49°N latitude by satellite- and climate-based methods were in reasonable agreement, especially for areas where croplands were masked out and an additional frost date threshold was adopted. The statistically significant trends of satellite-based SOS show a later spring arrival ranging from 0.1 to 4.9 days decade −1 over nine Level III ecoregions. We found the croplands generally exhibited larger trends (later arrival) than the non-croplands. The area-averaged satellite-based SOS for non-croplands (i.e. mostly grasslands) showed no significant trends. We examined the trends of temperatures, precipitation, and standardized precipitation index (SPI), as well as the strength of correlation between the satellite-based SOS and these climatic drivers. Our results indicate that satellite-based SOS trends are spatially and primarily related to annual maximum normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, mostly in summertime) and/or annual minimum NDVI (mostly in wintertime) and these trends showed the best correlation with six-month SPI over the period 1982–2008 in the US High Plains region. (letter)

  14. An improved method for Multipath Hemispherical Map (MHM) based on Trend Surface Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhiren; Chen, Wen; Dong, Danan; Yu, Chao

    2017-04-01

    Among various approaches developed for detecting the multipath effect in high-accuracy GNSS positioning, Only MHM (Multipath Hemispherical Map) and SF (Sidereal Filtering) can be implemented to real-time GNSS data processing. SF is based on the time repeatability of satellites which just suitable for static environment, while the spatiotemporal repeatability-based MHM is applicable not only for static environment but also for dynamic carriers with static multipath environment such as ships and airplanes, and utilizes much smaller number of parameters than ASF. However, the MHM method also has certain defects. Since the MHM take the mean of residuals from the grid as the filter value, it is more suitable when the multipath regime is medium to low frequency. Now existing research data indicate that the newly advanced Sidereal Filtering (ASF) method perform better with high frequency multipath reduction than MHM by contrast. To solve the above problem and improve MHM's performance on high frequency multipath, we combined binary trend surface analysis method with original MHM model to effectively analyze particular spatial distribution and variation trends of multipath effect. We computed trend surfaces of the residuals within a grid by least-square procedures, and chose the best results through the moderate successive test. The enhanced MHM grid was constructed from a set of coefficients of the fitted equation instead of mean value. According to the analysis of the actual observation, the improved MHM model shows positive effect on high frequency multipath reduction, and significantly reduced the root mean square (RMS) value of the carrier residuals. Keywords: Trend Surface Analysis; Multipath Hemispherical Map; high frequency multipath effect

  15. Spatio-temporal trend analysis of precipitation in Guizhou province based on GIS technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jianfeng; Zhang, Fengtai; Pan, Yuanfen; Li, Wei; Cao, Guangjie; An, Youzhi

    2018-02-01

    Precipitation changes are closely related to human production and life. Based on the data of Guizhou Province from 1998 to 2012, the temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation in Guizhou Province were analyzed from the annual, seasonal and monthly scales by linear trend analysis and ArcGIS kriging spatial interpolation. The results show that the annual precipitation is mainly concentrated in the summer, accounting for 47.6% of the year, followed by spring accounted for 26.9%, autumn accounted for 18.6% in winter accounted for 6.9%. In the time, the precipitation in the study area shows a decreasing trend in the annual scale, seasonal scale and July. The overall spatial precipitation distribution shows a decreasing trend from the east to the west. The precipitation also in the south is higher than the northern region.

  16. Time Trends over 16 Years in Incidence-Rates of Autism Spectrum Disorders across the Lifespan Based on Nationwide Danish Register Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Christina Mohr; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Lauritsen, Marlene Briciet

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated time trends and associated factors of incidence rates of diagnosed autism spectrum disorders (ASD) across the lifespan from 1995 to 2010, using data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry. First time diagnosis of childhood autism, atypical autism, Asperger's syndrome, or pervasive developmental…

  17. Time trend tendency (1988-2014 years) of organochlorine pesticide levels in the adipose tissue of Veracruz inhabitants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calderón-Garcidueñas, Ana Laura; Waliszewski, Stefan M; Ruiz-Ramos, Rubén; Del Carmen Martinez-Valenzuela, María

    2018-03-10

    The population that lives in areas where organochlorine pesticides were spread in the past is still exposed to them through contaminated food, particulate matter, and vapors. Due to their lipophilic properties and resistance to metabolic reactions, they accumulate in tissues and fluids rich in lipids. The aim of the study was to monitor the concentrations of organochlorine pesticides in forensic adipose tissue samples of adult inhabitants of Veracruz City, Mexico, and compare their time trend levels from 1988 to 2014. During the study, hexachlorobenzene (HCB); lindane; β-hexachorocyclohexane; p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (pp'DDE); p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (p,p'-DDT); and o,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (o,p'-DDT) were determined. Our survey was divided into two periods: first, from the years 1988 to 1999, during which DDT was allowed to fight malaria and dengue vectors and the second from the years 2001 to 2014, after the DDT ban. A total of 1435 samples were analyzed. There were substantial differences in the forecasted time trend values of p,p'-DDE and p,p'-DDT in human adipose tissue samples in the two different periods. During the first period, p,p'-DDE decrease time trend was 1.198 mg/kg on lipid base per year; for the second one, decrease was 0.128 mg/kg on lipid base per year. p,p'-DDT decreased 0.507 mg/kg on lipid base during the first period and 0.039 mg/kg on lipid base for the second. The different concentrations may be explained by the cessation of fresh exposure after the first period and a more equilibrated decontamination tendency during the second period. This model was useful to show the decrease in the concentration of pesticides in human adipose tissue samples.

  18. Diagnoses of Autism Spectrum Disorders in Germany: Time Trends in Administrative Prevalence and Diagnostic Stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann, Christian J.; Gerste, Bettina; Hoffmann, Falk

    2018-01-01

    For Germany, no data on trends in autism spectrum disorder diagnoses are available. The primary aim of this study was to establish the time trends in the administrative prevalence of autism spectrum disorder diagnoses. The second aim was to assess the stability of autism spectrum disorder diagnoses over time. We analysed administrative outpatient…

  19. Assessment of vegetation trends in drylands from time series of earth observation data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fensholt, R.; Horion, S.; Tagesson, T.; Ehammer, A.; Grogan, K.; Tian, F.; Huber, S.; Verbesselt, J.; Prince, S.D.; Tucker, C.J.; Rasmussen, K.

    2015-01-01

    This chapter summarizes approaches to the detection of dryland vegetation change and methods for observing spatio-temporal trends from space. An overview of suitable long-term Earth Observation (EO) based datasets for assessment of global dryland vegetation trends is provided and a status map of

  20. Fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and the probabilities of trends of fuzzy logical relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shyi-Ming; Chen, Shen-Wen

    2015-03-01

    In this paper, we present a new method for fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and the probabilities of trends of fuzzy-trend logical relationships. Firstly, the proposed method fuzzifies the historical training data of the main factor and the secondary factor into fuzzy sets, respectively, to form two-factors second-order fuzzy logical relationships. Then, it groups the obtained two-factors second-order fuzzy logical relationships into two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups. Then, it calculates the probability of the "down-trend," the probability of the "equal-trend" and the probability of the "up-trend" of the two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationships in each two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship group, respectively. Finally, it performs the forecasting based on the probabilities of the down-trend, the equal-trend, and the up-trend of the two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationships in each two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship group. We also apply the proposed method to forecast the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) and the NTD/USD exchange rates. The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the existing methods.

  1. Time trends in heavy drinking among middle-aged and older adults in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørk, Christina; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Vinther-Larsen, Mathilde

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Studies have indicated an increasing proportion of heavy drinking among middle-aged and older Danes. Trends in consumption are often extremely sensitive to influence from various components of the time trends but only few have explored the age, period and cohort-related influences...... that the proportion of heavy drinking women increases in younger birth cohorts. This trend is not observed for men as their drinking pattern mainly increase slightly by calendar year. CONCLUSIONS: Our Danish observations for older aged individuals correspond to the social and cultural changes in the 1960s and 1970s...

  2. Satellite-based trends of solar radiation and cloud parameters in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeifroth, Uwe; Bojanowski, Jedrzej S.; Clerbaux, Nicolas; Manara, Veronica; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; Trentmann, Jörg; Walawender, Jakub P.; Hollmann, Rainer

    2018-04-01

    Solar radiation is the main driver of the Earth's climate. Measuring solar radiation and analysing its interaction with clouds are essential for the understanding of the climate system. The EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) generates satellite-based, high-quality climate data records, with a focus on the energy balance and water cycle. Here, multiple of these data records are analyzed in a common framework to assess the consistency in trends and spatio-temporal variability of surface solar radiation, top-of-atmosphere reflected solar radiation and cloud fraction. This multi-parameter analysis focuses on Europe and covers the time period from 1992 to 2015. A high correlation between these three variables has been found over Europe. An overall consistency of the climate data records reveals an increase of surface solar radiation and a decrease in top-of-atmosphere reflected radiation. In addition, those trends are confirmed by negative trends in cloud cover. This consistency documents the high quality and stability of the CM SAF climate data records, which are mostly derived independently from each other. The results of this study indicate that one of the main reasons for the positive trend in surface solar radiation since the 1990's is a decrease in cloud coverage even if an aerosol contribution cannot be completely ruled out.

  3. Time Series Analysis of Onchocerciasis Data from Mexico: A Trend towards Elimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Rodríguez, Miguel A.; Adeleke, Monsuru A.; Orozco-Algarra, María E.; Arrendondo-Jiménez, Juan I.; Guo, Xianwu

    2013-01-01

    Background In Latin America, there are 13 geographically isolated endemic foci distributed among Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil and Ecuador. The communities of the three endemic foci found within Mexico have been receiving ivermectin treatment since 1989. In this study, we predicted the trend of occurrence of cases in Mexico by applying time series analysis to monthly onchocerciasis data reported by the Mexican Secretariat of Health between 1988 and 2011 using the software R. Results A total of 15,584 cases were reported in Mexico from 1988 to 2011. The data of onchocerciasis cases are mainly from the main endemic foci of Chiapas and Oaxaca. The last case in Oaxaca was reported in 1998, but new cases were reported in the Chiapas foci up to 2011. Time series analysis performed for the foci in Mexico showed a decreasing trend of the disease over time. The best-fitted models with the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) were Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, which were used to predict the tendency of onchocerciasis cases for two years ahead. According to the ARIMA models predictions, the cases in very low number (below 1) are expected for the disease between 2012 and 2013 in Chiapas, the last endemic region in Mexico. Conclusion The endemic regions of Mexico evolved from high onchocerciasis-endemic states to the interruption of transmission due to the strategies followed by the MSH, based on treatment with ivermectin. The extremely low level of expected cases as predicted by ARIMA models for the next two years suggest that the onchocerciasis is being eliminated in Mexico. To our knowledge, it is the first study utilizing time series for predicting case dynamics of onchocerciasis, which could be used as a benchmark during monitoring and post-treatment surveillance. PMID:23459370

  4. Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Strode

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We find that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI, reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias in CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. These results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.

  5. United States forest disturbance trends observed with landsat time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey G. Masek; Samuel N. Goward; Robert E. Kennedy; Warren B. Cohen; Gretchen G. Moisen; Karen Schleweiss; Chengquan. Huang

    2013-01-01

    Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing US land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest...

  6. De-trending of wind speed variance based on first-order and second-order statistical moments only

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose

    2014-01-01

    The lack of efficient methods for de-trending of wind speed resource data may lead to erroneous wind turbine fatigue and ultimate load predictions. The present paper presents two models, which quantify the effect of an assumed linear trend on wind speed standard deviations as based on available...... statistical data only. The first model is a pure time series analysis approach, which quantifies the effect of non-stationary characteristics of ensemble mean wind speeds on the estimated wind speed standard deviations as based on mean wind speed statistics only. This model is applicable to statistics...... of arbitrary types of time series. The second model uses the full set of information and includes thus additionally observed wind speed standard deviations to estimate the effect of ensemble mean non-stationarities on wind speed standard deviations. This model takes advantage of a simple physical relationship...

  7. Empirical mode decomposition and k-nearest embedding vectors for timely analyses of antibiotic resistance trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teodoro, Douglas; Lovis, Christian

    2013-01-01

    Antibiotic resistance is a major worldwide public health concern. In clinical settings, timely antibiotic resistance information is key for care providers as it allows appropriate targeted treatment or improved empirical treatment when the specific results of the patient are not yet available. To improve antibiotic resistance trend analysis algorithms by building a novel, fully data-driven forecasting method from the combination of trend extraction and machine learning models for enhanced biosurveillance systems. We investigate a robust model for extraction and forecasting of antibiotic resistance trends using a decade of microbiology data. Our method consists of breaking down the resistance time series into independent oscillatory components via the empirical mode decomposition technique. The resulting waveforms describing intrinsic resistance trends serve as the input for the forecasting algorithm. The algorithm applies the delay coordinate embedding theorem together with the k-nearest neighbor framework to project mappings from past events into the future dimension and estimate the resistance levels. The algorithms that decompose the resistance time series and filter out high frequency components showed statistically significant performance improvements in comparison with a benchmark random walk model. We present further qualitative use-cases of antibiotic resistance trend extraction, where empirical mode decomposition was applied to highlight the specificities of the resistance trends. The decomposition of the raw signal was found not only to yield valuable insight into the resistance evolution, but also to produce novel models of resistance forecasters with boosted prediction performance, which could be utilized as a complementary method in the analysis of antibiotic resistance trends.

  8. A window-based time series feature extraction method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katircioglu-Öztürk, Deniz; Güvenir, H Altay; Ravens, Ursula; Baykal, Nazife

    2017-10-01

    This study proposes a robust similarity score-based time series feature extraction method that is termed as Window-based Time series Feature ExtraCtion (WTC). Specifically, WTC generates domain-interpretable results and involves significantly low computational complexity thereby rendering itself useful for densely sampled and populated time series datasets. In this study, WTC is applied to a proprietary action potential (AP) time series dataset on human cardiomyocytes and three precordial leads from a publicly available electrocardiogram (ECG) dataset. This is followed by comparing WTC in terms of predictive accuracy and computational complexity with shapelet transform and fast shapelet transform (which constitutes an accelerated variant of the shapelet transform). The results indicate that WTC achieves a slightly higher classification performance with significantly lower execution time when compared to its shapelet-based alternatives. With respect to its interpretable features, WTC has a potential to enable medical experts to explore definitive common trends in novel datasets. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Hybrid model for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and salendar variation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhartono; Rahayu, S. P.; Prastyo, D. D.; Wijayanti, D. G. P.; Juliyanto

    2017-09-01

    Most of the monthly time series data in economics and business in Indonesia and other Moslem countries not only contain trend and seasonal, but also affected by two types of calendar variation effects, i.e. the effect of the number of working days or trading and holiday effects. The purpose of this research is to develop a hybrid model or a combination of several forecasting models to predict time series that contain trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. This hybrid model is a combination of classical models (namely time series regression and ARIMA model) and/or modern methods (artificial intelligence method, i.e. Artificial Neural Networks). A simulation study was used to show that the proposed procedure for building the hybrid model could work well for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. Furthermore, the proposed hybrid model is applied for forecasting real data, i.e. monthly data about inflow and outflow of currency at Bank Indonesia. The results show that the hybrid model tend to provide more accurate forecasts than individual forecasting models. Moreover, this result is also in line with the third results of the M3 competition, i.e. the hybrid model on average provides a more accurate forecast than the individual model.

  10. Time-Trend in Epidemiological and Pathological Features of Schistosoma-Associated Bladder Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ZAGHLOUL, M.S.; EL-BARADIE, M.; NAZMY, M.; NOUH, A.; MONEER, M.; YOUNIS, A.

    2008-01-01

    To investigate the different emerging trends in the features of bladder cancer along 17 years. Patients and Methods: During a 17-year period (1988- 2004), 5071 epithelial bladder cancer patients underwent radical cystectomy at the National Cancer Institute (NCI), Cairo University, Egypt. The time was divided into 3 time periods to detect changes of the clinico pathologic features of patients in these periods. Results: There was a significant progressive increase in the patients' age with time and decrease in squamous/ transitional ratio, with transient increase in male predominance during the 2nd time period. Moreover, there was a decrease in the well differentiated (grade 1) tumor (p<0.001) and an increase in the frequency of pelvic nodal involvement (p<0.001). Transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) patients were significantly older than those with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) (p<0.001). Progressive increase of age with time was evident in TCC, SCC and adenocarcinoma patients. Male to female ratio changed significantly in TCC and SCC. Conclusion: Time trend was confirmed with relative decrease in frequency of SCC and increase of TCC with changes in their pathological details. The differences between their characteristics and that of the Western countries are decreasing.

  11. Time trends in lifetime incidence rates of first-time diagnosed anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa across 16 years in a Danish nationwide psychiatric registry study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Jensen, Christina Mohr

    2015-11-01

    To study recent time trends in the incidence of diagnosed anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN) based on nationwide psychiatric register data. The Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry was used to identify the incidence of diagnosed cases with AN and BN at the ages of 4-65 years from 1995 to 2010. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated and were adjusted for time trends in the total number of people diagnosed in psychiatry. Time trends were analyzed using JoinPoint regression analysis. A total of N = 5,902 persons had a first-time incidence of AN, and a total of N = 5,113 had first-time incidence of BN. Incidence rates increased for AN from 6.4 to 12.6 per 100,000 person-years, and for BN from 6.3 to 7.2 per 100,000 person-years. In 2010, the male-to-female ratio was 1:8 for AN, and 1:20 for BN. There was an earlier onset for AN than for BN, and age at incidence decreased during the observation period for AN but not for BN. A sizeable part of the increasing incidence rates for AN and in particular, the younger AN age groups, could be attributed to an increase in the total number of N = 249,607 persons with first-time diagnoses in psychiatry. Incidence rates had increased slightly for AN, but were stable for BN across 16 years in this nationwide study and to a large extent were reflective of a general increase in diagnosed mental disorders. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Preterm birth time trends in Europe: A study of 19 countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeitlin, J.; Szamotulska, K.; Drewniak, N.; Mohangoo, A.D.; Chalmers, J.; Sakkeus, L.; Irgens, L.; Gatt, M.; Gissler, M.; Blondel, B.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To investigate time trends in preterm birth in Europe by multiplicity, gestational age, and onset of delivery. Design Analysis of aggregate data from routine sources. Setting Nineteen European countries. Population Live births in 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008. Methods Annual risk ratios of

  13. The latest trends in nature-based outdoor recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Ken Cordell

    2008-01-01

    Considerable interest in better understanding current trends in nature-based outdoor recreation followed publication of Richard Louv’s book, Last Child in the Woods, and a recent paper by Oliver R.W. Pergams and Patricia A. Zaradic titled “Evidence for a Fundamental and Pervasive Shift away from Nature-Based Recreation.”

  14. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis

    2016-01-01

    Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions. PMID:26987606

  15. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jae-Won; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Honda, Yasushi; Ha, Mina; Kim, Ho; Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis; Mueller, Ivo

    2016-01-01

    This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

  16. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Won Park

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021, and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

  17. Prediction Model of Machining Failure Trend Based on Large Data Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jirong

    2017-12-01

    The mechanical processing has high complexity, strong coupling, a lot of control factors in the machining process, it is prone to failure, in order to improve the accuracy of fault detection of large mechanical equipment, research on fault trend prediction requires machining, machining fault trend prediction model based on fault data. The characteristics of data processing using genetic algorithm K mean clustering for machining, machining feature extraction which reflects the correlation dimension of fault, spectrum characteristics analysis of abnormal vibration of complex mechanical parts processing process, the extraction method of the abnormal vibration of complex mechanical parts processing process of multi-component spectral decomposition and empirical mode decomposition Hilbert based on feature extraction and the decomposition results, in order to establish the intelligent expert system for the data base, combined with large data analysis method to realize the machining of the Fault trend prediction. The simulation results show that this method of fault trend prediction of mechanical machining accuracy is better, the fault in the mechanical process accurate judgment ability, it has good application value analysis and fault diagnosis in the machining process.

  18. Nonparametric trend estimation in the presence of fractal noise: application to fMRI time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afshinpour, Babak; Hossein-Zadeh, Gholam-Ali; Soltanian-Zadeh, Hamid

    2008-06-30

    Unknown low frequency fluctuations called "trend" are observed in noisy time-series measured for different applications. In some disciplines, they carry primary information while in other fields such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) they carry nuisance effects. In all cases, however, it is necessary to estimate them accurately. In this paper, a method for estimating trend in the presence of fractal noise is proposed and applied to fMRI time-series. To this end, a partly linear model (PLM) is fitted to each time-series. The parametric and nonparametric parts of PLM are considered as contributions of hemodynamic response and trend, respectively. Using the whitening property of wavelet transform, the unknown components of the model are estimated in the wavelet domain. The results of the proposed method are compared to those of other parametric trend-removal approaches such as spline and polynomial models. It is shown that the proposed method improves activation detection and decreases variance of the estimated parameters relative to the other methods.

  19. Tuberculosis in Mexico and the USA, Comparison of Trends Over Time 1990-2010

    OpenAIRE

    Hern?ndez-Gardu?o, Eduardo; Mendoza-Dami?n, Fabiola; Gardu?o-Alan?s, Adriana; Ay?n-Garibaldo, Salvador

    2015-01-01

    Background The aim was to compare tuberculosis trends in Mexico and United States and to evaluate Mexican diagnostic methods and contact investigation. Methods Retrospective comparative study of tuberculosis cases and incidence rates between both countries (1990-2010). Diagnostic methods and contact investigations were also evaluated for Mexico. Estimates were obtained from official websites. Results In Mexico, no clear trend was found over time for cases. Pulmonary (PTB) and all forms of tub...

  20. Incidence and time trends of Herpes zoster in rheumatoid arthritis: a population-based cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veetil, Bharath Manu Akkara; Myasoedova, Elena; Matteson, Eric L.; Gabriel, Sherine E.; Green, Abigail B.; Crowson, Cynthia S.

    2012-01-01

    Objective To determine the incidence, time trends, risk factors and severity of herpes zoster (HZ) in a population-based incidence cohort of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) compared to a group of individuals without RA from the same population. Methods All residents of Olmsted County, MN who first fulfilled 1987 American College of Rheumatology criteria for RA between 1/1/1980 and 12/31/2007 and a cohort of similar residents without RA were assembled and followed by retrospective chart review until death, migration, or 12/31/2008. Results There was no difference in the presence of HZ prior to RA incidence/index date between the cohorts (p=0.85). During follow-up 84 patients with RA (rate: 12.1 per 1000 person-years) and 44 subjects without RA (rate: 5.4 per 1000 person-years) developed HZ. Patients with RA were more likely to develop HZ than those without RA (hazard ratio: 2.4; 95% confidence interval: 1.7, 3.5). Patients diagnosed with RA in 1995–2007 had a higher likelihood of developing HZ than those diagnosed in 1980–1994. Erosive disease, previous joint surgery, use of hydroxychloroquine and corticosteroids were significantly associated with the development of HZ in RA, while the use of methotrexate or biologic agents was not. Complications of HZ occurred at a similar rate in both cohorts. Conclusion The incidence of HZ is increased in RA and has risen in recent years. The increasing incidence of HZ in more recent years is also noted in the general population. RA disease severity is associated with development of HZ. PMID:23281295

  1. Trend Estimation and Regression Analysis in Climatological Time Series: An Application of Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visser, H.; Molenaar, J.

    1995-05-01

    The detection of trends in climatological data has become central to the discussion on climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. To prove detection, a method is needed (i) to make inferences on significant rises or declines in trends, (ii) to take into account natural variability in climate series, and (iii) to compare output from GCMs with the trends in observed climate data. To meet these requirements, flexible mathematical tools are needed. A structural time series model is proposed with which a stochastic trend, a deterministic trend, and regression coefficients can be estimated simultaneously. The stochastic trend component is described using the class of ARIMA models. The regression component is assumed to be linear. However, the regression coefficients corresponding with the explanatory variables may be time dependent to validate this assumption. The mathematical technique used to estimate this trend-regression model is the Kaiman filter. The main features of the filter are discussed.Examples of trend estimation are given using annual mean temperatures at a single station in the Netherlands (1706-1990) and annual mean temperatures at Northern Hemisphere land stations (1851-1990). The inclusion of explanatory variables is shown by regressing the latter temperature series on four variables: Southern Oscillation index (SOI), volcanic dust index (VDI), sunspot numbers (SSN), and a simulated temperature signal, induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHG). In all analyses, the influence of SSN on global temperatures is found to be negligible. The correlations between temperatures and SOI and VDI appear to be negative. For SOI, this correlation is significant, but for VDI it is not, probably because of a lack of volcanic eruptions during the sample period. The relation between temperatures and GHG is positive, which is in agreement with the hypothesis of a warming climate because of increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The prediction performance of

  2. Trend analysis of time-series data: A novel method for untargeted metabolite discovery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, S.; Janssen, H.-G.; Vivó-Truyols, G.

    2010-01-01

    A new strategy for biomarker discovery is presented that uses time-series metabolomics data. Data sets from samples analysed at different time points after an intervention are searched for compounds that show a meaningful trend following the intervention. Obviously, this requires new data-analytical

  3. Time trends in leisure time physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption and body mass index in Danish adults with and without COPD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henrik; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Molsted, Stig

    2016-01-01

    Background: Promotion of a healthy lifestyle and non-pharmacological interventions in the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has received great attention in recent decades. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in leisure time physical activity (PA), smoking......, alcohol consumption and body mass index (BMI) from 2000 to 2010 in Danish individuals with and without COPD. Methods: Analyses were based on data provided by The Danish Health and Morbidity's three cross-sectional surveys from 2000, 2005 and 2010. Data compromised level of leisure time PA, smoking......, alcohol consumption, BMI and sociodemographic characteristics. Participants aged 25 years or older with and without COPD were included in the analyses. Results: In multiple logistic regression analyses, odds ratio (OR) of being physically active in the leisure time in 2010 compared to 2000 was 1.70 (95...

  4. Onabotulinum toxin A dosage trends over time for adductor spasmodic dysphonia: A 15-year experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Christopher G; Novakovic, Daniel; Mor, Niv; Blitzer, Andrew

    2016-03-01

    Although onabotulinum neurotoxin A (BoNTA) has been used for over three decades for the treatment of adductor spasmodic dysphonia, no study has been performed to look at the trend of BoNTA dosages across time. The goal of this study is to evaluate the dosage trends to determine if the dosage necessary for voice improvement in patients increases over time. Charts were reviewed for patients with 15 years or more of experience. Linear regression analysis was performed to determine correlation coefficients and trends. Fifty-five patients receiving BoNTA injections by the senior author (a.b.) for over 15 years were evaluated. Thirty-nine patients (82% female) met inclusion criteria. Patients received injections over an average of 18.6 years ± 1.36 years, with the longest follow-up of 21.5 years. Of 39 patients, 16 (41%) had a negative correlation coefficient (Pearson's r) suggesting a decrease over time, whereas 23 (59%) had a positive correlation coefficient suggesting an increase over time. The mean correlation coefficient was 0.139 ± 0.534 and P  0.05 in 20 patients. R(2) for all patients were less than 0.75. Onabotulinum neurotoxin A injection dosage trends vary depending on the individual over time. Overall, the dose range appears to be stable in the majority of patients, suggesting that tolerance does not play a significant part in dose variation over time. 4. Laryngoscope, 126:678-681, 2016. © 2015 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  5. Fast or slow food? Explaining trends in food-related time in the Netherlands, 1975-2005

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandemakers, J.J.; Roeters, A.

    2015-01-01

    The current study analysed trends in the time spent preparing and consuming food and the frequency of outsourcing (going out for dinner and take-out) in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2005. We investigated differences between trends on week and weekend days and for different socio-demographic groups.

  6. Fuzzy forecasting based on fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shyi-Ming; Wang, Nai-Yi

    2010-10-01

    In this paper, we present a new method to predict the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) based on fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups (FTLRGs). The proposed method divides fuzzy logical relationships into FTLRGs based on the trend of adjacent fuzzy sets appearing in the antecedents of fuzzy logical relationships. First, we apply an automatic clustering algorithm to cluster the historical data into intervals of different lengths. Then, we define fuzzy sets based on these intervals of different lengths. Then, the historical data are fuzzified into fuzzy sets to derive fuzzy logical relationships. Then, we divide the fuzzy logical relationships into FTLRGs for forecasting the TAIEX. Moreover, we also apply the proposed method to forecast the enrollments and the inventory demand, respectively. The experimental results show that the proposed method gets higher average forecasting accuracy rates than the existing methods.

  7. Automatic trend estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Vamos¸, C˘alin

    2013-01-01

    Our book introduces a method to evaluate the accuracy of trend estimation algorithms under conditions similar to those encountered in real time series processing. This method is based on Monte Carlo experiments with artificial time series numerically generated by an original algorithm. The second part of the book contains several automatic algorithms for trend estimation and time series partitioning. The source codes of the computer programs implementing these original automatic algorithms are given in the appendix and will be freely available on the web. The book contains clear statement of the conditions and the approximations under which the algorithms work, as well as the proper interpretation of their results. We illustrate the functioning of the analyzed algorithms by processing time series from astrophysics, finance, biophysics, and paleoclimatology. The numerical experiment method extensively used in our book is already in common use in computational and statistical physics.

  8. [Comparison of application of Cochran-Armitage trend test and linear regression analysis for rate trend analysis in epidemiology study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, D Z; Wang, C; Shen, C F; Zhang, Y; Zhang, H; Song, G D; Xue, X D; Xu, Z L; Zhang, S; Jiang, G H

    2017-05-10

    We described the time trend of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) from 1999 to 2013 in Tianjin incidence rate with Cochran-Armitage trend (CAT) test and linear regression analysis, and the results were compared. Based on actual population, CAT test had much stronger statistical power than linear regression analysis for both overall incidence trend and age specific incidence trend (Cochran-Armitage trend P valuelinear regression P value). The statistical power of CAT test decreased, while the result of linear regression analysis remained the same when population size was reduced by 100 times and AMI incidence rate remained unchanged. The two statistical methods have their advantages and disadvantages. It is necessary to choose statistical method according the fitting degree of data, or comprehensively analyze the results of two methods.

  9. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-09-01

    Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

  10. Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in the southern Tianshan Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yan-Jun; Shen, Yanjun; Fink, Manfred; Kralisch, Sven; Chen, Yaning; Brenning, Alexander

    2018-02-01

    Streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing of mountain rivers are susceptible to climate change. Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in four mountain basins in the southern Tianshan were analyzed in this study. Streamflow trends were detected by Mann-Kendall tests and changes in snowmelt runoff timing were analyzed based on the winter/spring snowmelt runoff center time (WSCT). Pearson's correlation coefficient was further calculated to analyze the relationships between climate variables, streamflow and WSCT. Annual streamflow increased significantly in past decades in the southern Tianshan, especially in spring and winter months. However, the relations between streamflow and temperature/precipitation depend on the different streamflow generation processes. Annual precipitation plays a vital role in controlling recharge in the Toxkon basin, while the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are governed by both precipitation and temperature. Seasonally, temperature has a strong effect on streamflow in autumn and winter, while summer streamflow appears more sensitive to changes in precipitation. However, temperature is the dominant factor for streamflow in the glacierized Kunmalik basin at annual and seasonal scales. An uptrend in streamflow begins in the 1990s at both annual and seasonal scales, which is generally consistent with temperature and precipitation fluctuations. Average WSCT dates in the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are earlier than in the Toxkon and Kunmalik basins, and shifted towards earlier dates since the mid-1980s in all the basins. It is plausible that WSCT dates are more sensitive to warmer temperature in spring period compared to precipitation, except for the Huangshuigou basin. Taken together, these findings are useful for applications in flood risk regulation, future hydropower projects and integrated water resources management.

  11. Trends in Correlation-Based Pattern Recognition and Tracking in Forward-Looking Infrared Imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alam, Mohammad S.; Bhuiyan, Sharif M. A.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we review the recent trends and advancements on correlation-based pattern recognition and tracking in forward-looking infrared (FLIR) imagery. In particular, we discuss matched filter-based correlation techniques for target detection and tracking which are widely used for various real time applications. We analyze and present test results involving recently reported matched filters such as the maximum average correlation height (MACH) filter and its variants, and distance classifier correlation filter (DCCF) and its variants. Test results are presented for both single/multiple target detection and tracking using various real-life FLIR image sequences. PMID:25061840

  12. Analysis of monotonic greening and browning trends from global NDVI time-series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, de R.; Bruin, de S.; Wit, de A.J.W.; Schaepman, M.E.; Dent, D.L.

    2011-01-01

    Remotely sensed vegetation indices are widely used to detect greening and browning trends; especially the global coverage of time-series normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data which are available from 1981. Seasonality and serial auto-correlation in the data have previously been dealt

  13. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

  14. Time trends in physical activity from 1982 to 2012 in Finland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borodulin, K; Harald, K; Jousilahti, P; Laatikainen, T; Männistö, S; Vartiainen, E

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine population trends from 1982 to 2012 in Finland for leisure time physical activity (LTPA), commuting physical activity (CPA), occupational physical activity (OPA), and total physical activity. Furthermore, time trends in physical activity by educational levels and body mass index (BMI) categories were explored. Data were collected in independent cross-sectional population surveys, implemented every 5 years from 1982 to 2012. The data comprised 21,903 men and 24,311 women. Participants underwent a health examination and filled in questionnaires. Information on LTPA, CPA, and OPA was used both separately and combined to create an index of total physical activity. Between 1982 and 2012, high LTPA has increased in men (from 21% to 33%) and women (from 12% to 27%). High CPA and high OPA have decreased in men (from 17% to 12% and from 48% to 36%, respectively) and women (from 30% to 20% and from 26% to 21%, respectively). Total physical activity has remained fairly stable. Differences by education and BMI have increased, particularly for LTPA. Marked changes in physical activity have taken place over time. Differences in LTPA and OPA have grown wider across educational groups and BMI categories. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among Greenland Inuit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, Peter; Larsen, Christina Viskum Lytken

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Suicides remain a major public health problem in Greenland. Their increase coincides with the modernization since 1950. Serious suicidal thoughts are reported by a significant proportion of participants in countrywide surveys. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the time trend by region of suicides...... and suicidal thoughts among the Inuit in Greenland. DESIGN: Data included the Greenland registry of causes of death for 1970-2011 and 2 cross-sectional health surveys carried out in 1993-1994 and 2005-2010 with 1,580 and 3,102 Inuit participants, respectively. RESULTS: Suicide rates were higher among men than...... women while the prevalence of suicidal thoughts was higher among women. Suicide rates for men and women together increased from 1960 to 1980 and have remained around 100 per 100,000 person-years since then. The regional pattern of time trend for suicide rates varied with an early peak in the capital...

  16. Validation of risk-based performance indicators: Safety system function trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boccio, J.L.; Vesely, W.E.; Azarm, M.A.; Carbonaro, J.F.; Usher, J.L.; Oden, N.

    1989-10-01

    This report describes and applies a process for validating a model for a risk-based performance indicator. The purpose of the risk-based indicator evaluated, Safety System Function Trend (SSFT), is to monitor the unavailability of selected safety systems. Interim validation of this indicator is based on three aspects: a theoretical basis, an empirical basis relying on statistical correlations, and case studies employing 25 plant years of historical data collected from five plants for a number of safety systems. Results using the SSFT model are encouraging. Application of the model through case studies dealing with the performance of important safety systems shows that statistically significant trends in, and levels of, system performance can be discerned which thereby can provide leading indications of degrading and/or improving performances. Methods for developing system performance tolerance bounds are discussed and applied to aid in the interpretation of the trends in this risk-based indicator. Some additional characteristics of the SSFT indicator, learned through the data-collection efforts and subsequent data analyses performed, are also discussed. The usefulness and practicality of other data sources for validation purposes are explored. Further validation of this indicator is noted. Also, additional research is underway in developing a more detailed estimator of system unavailability. 9 refs., 18 figs., 5 tabs

  17. Time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among Greenland Inuit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Bjerregaard

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Suicides remain a major public health problem in Greenland. Their increase coincides with the modernization since 1950. Serious suicidal thoughts are reported by a significant proportion of participants in countrywide surveys. Objective: To analyze the time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among the Inuit in Greenland. Design: Data included the Greenland registry of causes of death for 1970–2011 and 2 cross-sectional health surveys carried out in 1993–1994 and 2005–2010 with 1,580 and 3,102 Inuit participants, respectively. Results: Suicide rates were higher among men than women while the prevalence of suicidal thoughts was higher among women. Suicide rates for men and women together increased from 1960 to 1980 and have remained around 100 per 100,000 person-years since then. The regional pattern of time trend for suicide rates varied with an early peak in the capital, a continued increase to very high rates in remote East and North Greenland and a slow increase in villages relative to towns on the West Coast. Suicidal thoughts followed the regional pattern for completed suicides. Especially for women there was a noticeable increasing trend in the villages. The relative risk for suicide was highest among those who reported suicidal thoughts, but most suicides happened outside this high-risk group. Conclusion: Suicide rates and the prevalence of suicidal thoughts remain high in Greenland but different regional trends point towards an increased marginalization between towns on the central West Coast, villages and East and North Greenland. Different temporal patterns call for different regional strategies of prevention.

  18. Prestudy - Development of trend analysis of component failure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poern, K.

    1995-04-01

    The Bayesian trend analysis model that has been used for the computation of initiating event intensities (I-book) is based on the number of events that have occurred during consecutive time intervals. The model itself is a Poisson process with time-dependent intensity. For the analysis of aging it is often more relevant to use times between failures for a given component as input, where by 'time' is meant a quantity that best characterizes the age of the component (calendar time, operating time, number of activations etc). Therefore, it has been considered necessary to extend the model and the computer code to allow trend analysis of times between events, and also of several sequences of times between events. This report describes this model extension as well as an application on an introductory ageing analysis of centrifugal pumps defined in Table 5 of the T-book. The application in turn directs the attention to the need for further development of both the trend model and the data base. Figs

  19. Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

    2013-01-01

    We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by

  20. Time trends in biological fertility in Western Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joffe, Michael; Holmes, Jane; Jensen, Tina Kold

    2013-01-01

    analyses demonstrated that this rise was visible as a male cohort effect for both TTP and contraceptive failure. On the other hand, the female birth cohort effect showed a slight fall in the first half of the study period for both TTP and contraceptive failure. As a period effect, fertility remained...... of which are calculated to be small. The declining female fertility accords with a falling dizygotic twinning rate during the same period.......We investigated trends in biological fertility in a comprehensive analysis of 5 major European data sets with data on time to pregnancy (TTP) and proportion of contraceptive failures. In particular, we distinguished a period effect from a birth cohort effect (lifelong tendency) in both sexes...

  1. Development of a time-trend model for analyzing and predicting case-pattern of Lassa fever epidemics in Liberia, 2013-2017.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olugasa, Babasola O; Odigie, Eugene A; Lawani, Mike; Ojo, Johnson F

    2015-01-01

    The objective was to develop a case-pattern model for Lassa fever (LF) among humans and derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of LF cases in Liberia in view of the prevailing under-reporting and public health challenge posed by the disease in the country. A retrospective 5 years data of LF distribution countrywide among humans were used to train a time-trend model of the disease in Liberia. A time-trend quadratic model was selected due to its goodness-of-fit (R2 = 0.89, and P Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. We proposed a computationally feasible two-stage space-time permutation approach to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on LF in Liberia.

  2. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

  3. Decreasing pH trend estimated from 25-yr time series of carbonate parameters in the western North Pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Midorikawa, Takashi; Ishii, Masao; Sasano, Daisuke; Kosugi, Naohiro (Geochemical Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba (Japan)), e-mail: midorika@mri-jma.go.jp; Saito, Shu (Geochemical Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); Institute of Observational Research for Global Change (IORGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka (Japan)); Motoi, Tatsuo (Oceanographic Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan)); Kamiya, Hitomi; Nakadate, Akira; Nemoto, Kazuhiro (Global Environment and Marine Dept., Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo (Japan)); Inoue, Hisayuki Y. (Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido Univ., Sapporo (Japan))

    2010-11-15

    We estimated long-term trends of ocean acidification in surface waters in latitudinal zones from 3 deg N to 33 deg N along the repeat hydrographic line at 137 deg E in the western North Pacific Ocean. Estimates were based on the observational records of oceanic CO{sub 2} partial pressure and related surface properties over the last two decades. The computed pH time series both for 25 yr in winter (late January to early February) and for 21 yr in summer (June-July) exhibited significant decreasing trends in the extensive subtropical to equatorial zones, with interannual variations that were larger in summer. The calculated rates of pH decrease ranged from 0.0015 to 0.0021 yr-1 (average, 0.0018 +- 0.0002 yr-1) in winter and from 0.0008 to 0.0019 yr-1 (average, 0.0013 +- 0.0005 yr-1 ) in summer. The thermodynamic effects of rising sea surface temperature (SST) accounted for up to 44% (average, 15%) of the trend of pH decrease in the subtropical region in winter, whereas a trend of decreasing SST slowed the pH decrease in the northern subtropical region (around 25 deg N) in summer. We used the results from recent trends to evaluate future possible thermodynamic changes in the upper ocean carbonate system

  4. The contribution of a non-governmental organisation's Community Based Tuberculosis Care Programme to case finding in Myanmar: trend over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maung, Htet Myet Win; Saw, Saw; Isaakidis, Petros; Khogali, Mohammed; Reid, Anthony; Hoa, Nguyen Binh; Zaw, Ko Ko; Thein, Saw; Aung, Si Thu

    2017-04-03

    It is estimated that the standard, passive case finding (PCF) strategy for detecting cases of tuberculosis (TB) in Myanmar has not been successful: 26% of cases are missing. Therefore, alternative strategies, such as active case finding (ACF) by community volunteers, have been initiated since 2011. This study aimed to assess the contribution of a Community Based TB Care Programme (CBTC) by local non-government organizations (NGOs) to TB case finding in Myanmar over 4 years. This was a descriptive study using routine, monitoring data. Original data from the NGOs were sent to a central registry within the National TB Programme and data for this study were extracted from that database. Data from all 84 project townships in five regions and three states in Myanmar were used. The project was launched in 2011. Over time, the number of presumptive TB cases that were referred decreased, except in the Yangon Region, although in some areas, the numbers fluctuated. At the same time, there was a trend for the proportion of cases treated, compared to those referred, that decreased over time (P = 0.051). Overall, among 84 townships, the contribution of CBTC to total case detection deceased from 6% to 4% over time (P < 0.001). Contrary to expectations and evidence from previous studies in other countries, a concerning reduction in TB case finding by local NGO volunteer networks in several areas in Myanmar was recorded over 4 years. This suggests that measures to support the volunteer network and improve its performance are needed. They may include discussion with local NGOs human resources personnel, incentives for the volunteers, closer supervision of volunteers and improved monitoring and evaluation tools.

  5. Satellite Image Time Series Decomposition Based on EEMD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun-long Kong

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Satellite Image Time Series (SITS have recently been of great interest due to the emerging remote sensing capabilities for Earth observation. Trend and seasonal components are two crucial elements of SITS. In this paper, a novel framework of SITS decomposition based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD is proposed. EEMD is achieved by sifting an ensemble of adaptive orthogonal components called Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs. EEMD is noise-assisted and overcomes the drawback of mode mixing in conventional Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD. Inspired by these advantages, the aim of this work is to employ EEMD to decompose SITS into IMFs and to choose relevant IMFs for the separation of seasonal and trend components. In a series of simulations, IMFs extracted by EEMD achieved a clear representation with physical meaning. The experimental results of 16-day compositions of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, and Global Environment Monitoring Index (GEMI time series with disturbance illustrated the effectiveness and stability of the proposed approach to monitoring tasks, such as applications for the detection of abrupt changes.

  6. An In Depth Look at Lightning Trends in Hurricane Harvey using Satellite and Ground-Based Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringhausen, J.

    2017-12-01

    This research combines satellite measurements of lightning in Hurricane Harvey with ground-based lightning measurements to get a better sense of the total lightning occurring in the hurricane, both intra-cloud (IC) and cloud-to-ground (CG), and how it relates to the intensification and weakening of the tropical system. Past studies have looked at lightning trends in hurricanes using the space based Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) or ground-based lightning detection networks. However, both of these methods have drawbacks. For instance, LIS was in low earth orbit, which limited lightning observations to 90 seconds for a particular point on the ground; hence, continuous lightning coverage of a hurricane was not possible. Ground-based networks can have a decreased detection efficiency, particularly for ICs, over oceans where hurricanes generally intensify. With the launch of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) on the GOES-16 satellite, researchers can study total lightning continuously over the lifetime of a tropical cyclone. This study utilizes GLM to investigate total lightning activity in Hurricane Harvey temporally; this is augmented with spatial analysis relative to hurricane structure, similar to previous studies. Further, GLM and ground-based network data are combined using Bayesian techniques in a new manner to leverage the strengths of each detection method. This methodology 1) provides a more complete estimate of lightning activity and 2) enables the derivation of the IC:CG ratio (Z-ratio) throughout the time period of the study. In particular, details of the evolution of the Z-ratio in time and space are presented. In addition, lightning stroke spatiotemporal trends are compared to lightning flash trends. This research represents a new application of lightning data that can be used in future study of tropical cyclone intensification and weakening.

  7. Performance Trends During Sleep Deprivation on a Tilt-Based Control Task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolkhovsky, Jeffrey B; Ritter, Frank E; Chon, Ki H; Qin, Michael

    2018-07-01

    Understanding human behavior under the effects of sleep deprivation allows for the mitigation of risk due to reduced performance. To further this goal, this study investigated the effects of short-term sleep deprivation using a tilt-based control device and examined whether existing user models accurately predict targeting performance. A task in which the user tilts a surface to roll a ball into a target was developed to examine motor performance. A model was built to predict human performance for this task under various levels of sleep deprivation. Every 2 h, 10 subjects completed the task until they reached 24 h of wakefulness. Performance measurements of this task, which were based on Fitts' law, included movement time, task throughput, and time intercept. The model predicted significant performance decrements over the 24-h period with an increase in movement time (R2 = 0.61), a decrease in throughput (R2 = 0.57), and an increase in time intercept (R2 = 0.60). However, it was found that in experimental trials there was no significant change in movement time (R2 = 0.11), throughput (R2 = 0.15), or time intercept (R2 = 0.27). The results found were unexpected as performance decrement is frequently reported during sleep deprivation. These findings suggest a reexamination of the initial thought of sleep loss leading to a decrement in all aspects of performance.Bolkovsky JB, Ritter FE, Chon KH, Qin M. Performance trends during sleep deprivation on a tilt-based control task. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2018; 89(7):626-633.

  8. Trend Switching Processes in Financial Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H. Eugene

    For an intriguing variety of switching processes in nature, the underlying complex system abruptly changes at a specific point from one state to another in a highly discontinuous fashion. Financial market fluctuations are characterized by many abrupt switchings creating increasing trends ("bubble formation") and decreasing trends ("bubble collapse"), on time scales ranging from macroscopic bubbles persisting for hundreds of days to microscopic bubbles persisting only for very short time scales. Our analysis is based on a German DAX Future data base containing 13,991,275 transactions recorded with a time resolution of 10- 2 s. For a parallel analysis, we use a data base of all S&P500 stocks providing 2,592,531 daily closing prices. We ask whether these ubiquitous switching processes have quantifiable features independent of the time horizon studied. We find striking scale-free behavior of the volatility after each switching occurs. We interpret our findings as being consistent with time-dependent collective behavior of financial market participants. We test the possible universality of our result by performing a parallel analysis of fluctuations in transaction volume and time intervals between trades. We show that these financial market switching processes have features similar to those present in phase transitions. We find that the well-known catastrophic bubbles that occur on large time scales - such as the most recent financial crisis - are no outliers but in fact single dramatic representatives caused by the formation of upward and downward trends on time scales varying over nine orders of magnitude from the very large down to the very small.

  9. Hydrologic Response to Climate Change: Missing Precipitation Data Matters for Computed Timing Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, B.

    2016-12-01

    This work demonstrates the derivation of climate timing statistics and applying them to determine resulting hydroclimate impacts. Long-term daily precipitation observations from 50 California stations were used to compute climate trends of precipitation event Intensity, event Duration and Pause between events. Each precipitation event trend was then applied as input to a PRMS hydrology model which showed hydrology changes to recharge, baseflow, streamflow, etc. An important concern was precipitation uncertainty induced by missing observation values and causing errors in quantification of precipitation trends. Many standard statistical techniques such as ARIMA and simple endogenous or even exogenous imputation were applied but failed to help resolve these uncertainties. What helped resolve these uncertainties was use of multiple imputation techniques. This involved fitting of Weibull probability distributions to multiple imputed values for the three precipitation trends.Permutation resampling techniques using Monte Carlo processing were then applied to the multiple imputation values to derive significance p-values for each trend. Significance at the 95% level for Intensity was found for 11 of the 50 stations, Duration from 16 of the 50, and Pause from 19, of which 12 were 99% significant. The significance weighted trends for California are Intensity -4.61% per decade, Duration +3.49% per decade, and Pause +3.58% per decade. Two California basins with PRMS hydrologic models were studied: Feather River in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains and the central coast Soquel-Aptos. Each local trend was changed without changing the other trends or the total precipitation. Feather River Basin's critical supply to Lake Oroville and the State Water Project benefited from a total streamflow increase of 1.5%. The Soquel-Aptos Basin water supply was impacted by a total groundwater recharge decrease of -7.5% and streamflow decrease of -3.2%.

  10. Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Trending Commodity Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Gouel , Christophe; LEGRAND , Nicolas

    2017-01-01

    We present a method to estimate jointly the parameters of a standard commodity storage model and the parameters characterizing the trend in commodity prices. This procedure allows the influence of a possible trend to be removed without restricting the model specification, and allows model and trend selection based on statistical criteria. The trend is modeled deterministically using linear or cubic spline functions of time. The results show that storage models with trend are always preferred ...

  11. Incidence, time trends and regional variation of childhood leukaemia in Germany and Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaatsch, P.; Mergenthaler, A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents data on the German and Europe-wide incidence, time trends and regional variations of childhood leukaemia. Data were provided by the German Childhood Cancer Registry (GCCR), a population-based cancer registry recording all cases of malignant diseases in children under 15 y of age residing in Germany and by the Automated Childhood Cancer Information System (ACCIS) co-ordinated at International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, that combines and evaluates data from several European population-based cancer registries. The incidence of leukaemia (44.0 per million) has increased in Europe as well as in Germany in the last decades (0.6% annually on average). Germany shows no systematic aggregation of regions with low or high cancer incidence in terms of regional clustering. Incidence rates differ between European regions with the highest rates in Northern Europe (48.0 per million) and the lowest rates in Eastern Europe (39.1). Altogether, the results from ACCIS and the GCCR show good agreement. (authors)

  12. The impact of area-based initiatives on physical activity trends in deprived areas; a quasi-experimental evaluation of the Dutch District Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Daniëlle; Droomers, Mariël; Jongeneel-Grimen, Birthe; Wingen, Marleen; Stronks, Karien; Kunst, Anton E

    2014-03-11

    Numerous area-based initiatives (ABIs) have been implemented in deprived neighbourhoods across Europe. These large-scale initiatives aim to tackle the socio-economic and environmental problems in these areas that might influence physical activity (PA). There is little robust evidence of their impact on PA. This study aimed to assess the impact of a Dutch ABI called the District Approach on trends in leisure-time PA in deprived districts. Repeated cross-sectional data on 48401 adults across the Netherlands were obtained from the Integrated Survey on Household Living Conditions (POLS) 2004-2011. 1517 of these adults resided in deprived target districts and 46884 adults resided elsewhere in the Netherlands. In a quasi-experimental interrupted time-series design, multilevel logistic regression analyses were performed to assess trends in leisure-time walking, cycling, and sports before and during the intervention. Trends in deprived target districts were compared with trends in various control groups. The role of the intensity of environmental interventions was also assessed. Deprived target districts showed a significantly positive change in walking trend between the pre-intervention and intervention period. The trend change in the deprived target districts was significantly larger compared to the rest of the Netherlands, but not compared to other deprived districts. For cycling and sports, neither deprived districts nor control districts showed a significant trend change. For all leisure-time PA outcomes, trend changes were not related to the intensity of environmental interventions in the deprived target districts. Some evidence was found to suggest that ABIs like the District Approach have a positive impact on leisure-time PA in deprived districts, regardless of the intensity of environmental interventions.

  13. Fast or slow food? Explaining trends in food-related time in the Netherlands, 1975–2005

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandemakers, Jornt; Roeters, Anne|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304837865

    2015-01-01

    The current study analysed trends in the time spent preparing and consuming food and the frequency of outsourcing (going out for dinner and take-out) in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2005. We investigated differences between trends on week and weekend days and for different socio-demographic groups.

  14. Maternal inactivity: 45-year trends in mothers' use of time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archer, Edward; Lavie, Carl J; McDonald, Samantha M; Thomas, Diana M; Hébert, James R; Taverno Ross, Sharon E; McIver, Kerry L; Malina, Robert M; Blair, Steven N

    2013-12-01

    To examine 45-year trends in time use and physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) in a nationally representative sample of US mothers. We quantified time allocation to physical activity (PA), sedentary behaviors (SED), and PAEE from 1965 to 2010 in mothers with older children (MOC) (>5 to ≤18 years) and mothers with younger children (MYC) (≤5 years). Physical activity was the sum of time allocated to housework, child care, laundry, food preparation, postmeal cleanup, and exercise. Sedentary behavior was the sum of time spent in a vehicle and using screen-based media. Physical activity energy expenditure was calculated using body weights from national surveys and metabolic equivalents. From 1965 to 2010, the time allocated to PA decreased by 11.1 h/wk (from 32.0 to 20.9 h/wk) in MOC and by 13.9 h/wk (from 43.6 to 29.7 h/wk) in MYC. The time spent in SED increased by 7.0 h/wk in MOC (from 17.7 to 24.7 h/wk) and increased by 5.7 h/wk in MYC (from 17.0 to 22.7 h/wk). Physical activity energy expenditure decreased by 1237.6 kcal/wk (176.8 kcal/d) in MOC (from 5835.3 to 4597.7 kcal/wk), and in MYC, PAEE decreased by 1572.5 kcal/wk (224.6 kcal/d), from 7690.5 to 6118.0 kcal/wk. There was a significant reallocation of time by mothers from PA (eg, housework) to SED (eg, watching television) between 1965 and 2010. Given the essential role of PA for health and the potential for the intergenerational transmission of obesity and obesogenic behaviors, these results suggest that maternal inactivity may be an important target for the primary prevention of chronic noncommunicable diseases and obesity. Copyright © 2013 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Computer based training: Technology and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neal, A.F.

    1986-01-01

    Computer Based Training (CBT) offers great potential for revolutionizing the training environment. Tremendous advances in computer cost performance, instructional design science, and authoring systems have combined to put CBT within the reach of all. The ability of today's CBT systems to implement powerful training strategies, simulate complex processes and systems, and individualize and control the training process make it certain that CBT will now, at long last, live up to its potential. This paper reviews the major technologies and trends involved and offers some suggestions for getting started in CBT

  16. The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model

    OpenAIRE

    Drew Creal; Siem Jan Koopman; Eric Zivot

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is based on a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition model that accounts for time variation in macroeconomic volatility, known as the great moderation. In particular, we consider an unobserved components ...

  17. Current and Future Trends in Game-Based Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Vaz de Carvalho

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The first number of the second volume of the EAI Transactions on Serious Games focuses on the results presented on the European Conference on Game-Based Learning. This event, already on the 8th edition, has set standards in terms of presentation of research and practice and in the pointing out of new and future trends in the development of Game-Based Learning. As such, we are quite thrilled to be able to report them here.

  18. Time Trends and Educational Inequalities in Out-of-Hospital Coronary Deaths in Norway 1995-2009

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sulo, Enxhela; Nygård, Ottar; Vollset, Stein Emil

    2017-01-01

    using Poisson regression analysis with year as the independent, continuous variable. Information on the highest achieved education was obtained from The National Education Database and classified as primary (up to 10 years of compulsory education), secondary (high school or vocational school......BACKGROUND: Recent time trends and educational gradients characterizing out-of-hospital coronary deaths (OHCD) are poorly described. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified all deaths from coronary heart disease occurring outside the hospital in Norway during 1995 to 2009. Time trends were explored......), or tertiary (college/university). Educational gradients in OHCD were explored using Poisson regression, stratified by sex and age (

  19. Trends, causes and timing of 30-day readmissions after hospitalization for heart failure: 11-year population-based analysis with linked data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez-Gasso, Lucía; Hernando-Arizaleta, Lauro; Palomar-Rodríguez, Joaquín A; Abellán-Pérez, M Victoria; Pascual-Figal, Domingo A

    2017-12-01

    Reliable data are necessary if the burden of early readmissions following hospitalization for heart failure (HF) is to be addressed. We studied unplanned 30-day readmissions, their causes and timing over an 11-year period, using population-based linked data. All hospitalizations from 2003 to 2013 were analyzed by using administrative linked data based on the Minimum Basic Set discharge registry of the Department of Health (Region of Murcia, Spain). Index hospitalizations with HF as principal diagnosis (n=27,581) were identified. Transfers between centers were merged into one discharge. Readmissions were defined as unplanned admissions to any hospital within 30-days after discharge. In the 2003-2013 period, 30-day readmission rates had a relative mean annual growth of +1.36%, increasing from 17.6% to 22.1%, with similar trends for cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular causes. The figure of 22.1% decreased to 19.8% when only same-hospital readmissions were considered. Most readmissions were due to cardiovascular causes (60%), HF being the most common single cause (34%). The timing of readmission shows an early peak on the fourth day post discharge (+13.29%) due to causes other than HF, followed by a gradual decline (-3.32%); readmission for HF decreased steadily from the first day (-2.22%). Readmission for HF (12.7%) or non-cardiovascular causes (13.3%) had higher in-hospital mortality rates than the index hospitalization (9.2%, p<0.001). Age and comorbidity burden were the main predictors of any readmission, but the performance of a predictive model was poor. These findings support the need for population-based strategies to reduce the burden of early-unplanned readmissions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Is there a time trend in medical practice variations?: a review of the literature and an critical analysis of theoretical approaches.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenewegen, P.P.; Westert, G.P.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this study was to review the research evidence for a decreasing time trend in medical practice variation and to contribute to our theoretical understanding of trends in medical practice variations. We searched Pubmed for articles reporting on time trends in medical practice variations.

  1. Vesicular stomatitis forecasting based on Google Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, JianYing; Zhang, Tong; Lu, Yi; Zhou, GuangYa; Chen, Qin; Niu, Bing

    2018-01-01

    Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is an important viral disease of livestock. The main feature of VS is irregular blisters that occur on the lips, tongue, oral mucosa, hoof crown and nipple. Humans can also be infected with vesicular stomatitis and develop meningitis. This study analyses 2014 American VS outbreaks in order to accurately predict vesicular stomatitis outbreak trends. American VS outbreaks data were collected from OIE. The data for VS keywords were obtained by inputting 24 disease-related keywords into Google Trends. After calculating the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, it was found that there was a relationship between outbreaks and keywords derived from Google Trends. Finally, the predicted model was constructed based on qualitative classification and quantitative regression. For the regression model, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the predicted outbreaks and actual outbreaks are 0.953 and 0.948, respectively. For the qualitative classification model, we constructed five classification predictive models and chose the best classification predictive model as the result. The results showed, SN (sensitivity), SP (specificity) and ACC (prediction accuracy) values of the best classification predictive model are 78.52%,72.5% and 77.14%, respectively. This study applied Google search data to construct a qualitative classification model and a quantitative regression model. The results show that the method is effective and that these two models obtain more accurate forecast.

  2. Vesicular stomatitis forecasting based on Google Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yi; Zhou, GuangYa; Chen, Qin

    2018-01-01

    Background Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is an important viral disease of livestock. The main feature of VS is irregular blisters that occur on the lips, tongue, oral mucosa, hoof crown and nipple. Humans can also be infected with vesicular stomatitis and develop meningitis. This study analyses 2014 American VS outbreaks in order to accurately predict vesicular stomatitis outbreak trends. Methods American VS outbreaks data were collected from OIE. The data for VS keywords were obtained by inputting 24 disease-related keywords into Google Trends. After calculating the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, it was found that there was a relationship between outbreaks and keywords derived from Google Trends. Finally, the predicted model was constructed based on qualitative classification and quantitative regression. Results For the regression model, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the predicted outbreaks and actual outbreaks are 0.953 and 0.948, respectively. For the qualitative classification model, we constructed five classification predictive models and chose the best classification predictive model as the result. The results showed, SN (sensitivity), SP (specificity) and ACC (prediction accuracy) values of the best classification predictive model are 78.52%,72.5% and 77.14%, respectively. Conclusion This study applied Google search data to construct a qualitative classification model and a quantitative regression model. The results show that the method is effective and that these two models obtain more accurate forecast. PMID:29385198

  3. Vesicular stomatitis forecasting based on Google Trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JianYing Wang

    Full Text Available Vesicular stomatitis (VS is an important viral disease of livestock. The main feature of VS is irregular blisters that occur on the lips, tongue, oral mucosa, hoof crown and nipple. Humans can also be infected with vesicular stomatitis and develop meningitis. This study analyses 2014 American VS outbreaks in order to accurately predict vesicular stomatitis outbreak trends.American VS outbreaks data were collected from OIE. The data for VS keywords were obtained by inputting 24 disease-related keywords into Google Trends. After calculating the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, it was found that there was a relationship between outbreaks and keywords derived from Google Trends. Finally, the predicted model was constructed based on qualitative classification and quantitative regression.For the regression model, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the predicted outbreaks and actual outbreaks are 0.953 and 0.948, respectively. For the qualitative classification model, we constructed five classification predictive models and chose the best classification predictive model as the result. The results showed, SN (sensitivity, SP (specificity and ACC (prediction accuracy values of the best classification predictive model are 78.52%,72.5% and 77.14%, respectively.This study applied Google search data to construct a qualitative classification model and a quantitative regression model. The results show that the method is effective and that these two models obtain more accurate forecast.

  4. Ankle injuries in the Netherlands : Trends over 10-25 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kemler, Ellen; van de Port, I.; Valkenberg, H.; Hoes, A. W.; Backx, F. J G

    2015-01-01

    Ankle injuries are a common health problem; data on ankle injury rates and time trends in the population at large are scarce. Our aim was to investigate the incidence of and time trends in population-based and emergency department-treated ankle injuries related to sports activities and other

  5. Time trends, improvements and national auditing of rectal cancer management over an 18-year period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodeda, K; Johansson, R; Zar, N; Birgisson, H; Dahlberg, M; Skullman, S; Lindmark, G; Glimelius, B; Påhlman, L; Martling, A

    2015-09-01

    The main aims were to explore time trends in the management and outcome of patients with rectal cancer in a national cohort and to evaluate the possible impact of national auditing on overall outcomes. A secondary aim was to provide population-based data for appraisal of external validity in selected patient series. Data from the Swedish ColoRectal Cancer Registry with virtually complete national coverage were utilized in this cohort study on 29 925 patients with rectal cancer diagnosed between 1995 and 2012. Of eligible patients, nine were excluded. During the study period, overall, relative and disease-free survival increased. Postoperative mortality after 30 and 90 days decreased to 1.7% and 2.9%. The 5-year local recurrence rate dropped to 5.0%. Resection margins improved, as did peri-operative blood loss despite more multivisceral resections being performed. Fewer patients underwent palliative resection and the proportion of non-operated patients increased. The proportions of temporary and permanent stoma formation increased. Preoperative radiotherapy and chemoradiotherapy became more common as did multidisciplinary team conferences. Variability in rectal cancer management between healthcare regions diminished over time when new aspects of patient care were audited. There have been substantial changes over time in the management of patients with rectal cancer, reflected in improved outcome. Much indirect evidence indicates that auditing matters, but without a control group it is not possible to draw firm conclusions regarding the possible impact of a quality control registry on faster shifts in time trends, decreased variability and improvements. Registry data were made available for reference. Colorectal Disease © 2015 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

  6. Modeling trends of health and health related indicators in Ethiopia (1995-2008: a time-series study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigatu Tilahun H

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Federal Ministry of Health of Ethiopia has been publishing Health and Health related indicators of the country annually since 1987 E.C. These indicators have been of high importance in indicating the status of health in the country in those years. However, the trends/patterns of these indicators and the factors related to the trends have not yet been investigated in a systematic manner. In addition, there were minimal efforts to develop a model for predicting future values of Health and Health related indicators based on the current trend. Objectives The overall aim of this study was to analyze trends of and develop model for prediction of Health and Health related indicators. More specifically, it described the trends of Health and Health related indicators, identified determinants of mortality and morbidity indicators and developed model for predicting future values of MDG indicators. Methods This study was conducted on Health and Health related indicators of Ethiopia from the year 1987 E.C to 2000 E.C. Key indicators of Mortality and Morbidity, Health service coverage, Health systems resources, Demographic and socio-economic, and Risk factor indicators were extracted and analyzed. The trends in these indicators were established using trend analysis techniques. The determinants of the established trends were identified using ARIMA models in STATA. The trend-line equations were then used to predict future values of the indicators. Results Among the mortality indicators considered in this study, it was only Maternal Mortality Ratio that showed statistically significant decrement within the study period. The trends of Total Fertility Rate, physician per 100,000 population, skilled birth attendance and postnatal care coverage were found to have significant association with Maternal Mortality Ratio trend. There was a reversal of malaria parasite prevalence in 1999 E.C from Plasmodium Falciparum to Plasmodium Vivax. Based on

  7. Global Search Trends of Oral Problems using Google Trends from 2004 to 2016: An Exploratory Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patthi, Basavaraj; Kumar, Jishnu Krishna; Singla, Ashish; Gupta, Ritu; Prasad, Monika; Ali, Irfan; Dhama, Kuldeep; Niraj, Lav Kumar

    2017-09-01

    Oral diseases are pandemic cause of morbidity with widespread geographic distribution. This technology based era has brought about easy knowledge transfer than traditional dependency on information obtained from family doctors. Hence, harvesting this system of trends can aid in oral disease quantification. To conduct an exploratory analysis of the changes in internet search volumes of oral diseases by using Google Trends © (GT © ). GT © were utilized to provide real world facts based on search terms related to categories, interest by region and interest over time. Time period chosen was from January 2004 to December 2016. Five different search terms were explored and compared based on the highest relative search volumes along with comma separated value files to obtain an insight into highest search traffic. The search volume measured over the time span noted the term "Dental caries" to be the most searched in Japan, "Gingivitis" in Jordan, "Oral Cancer" in Taiwan, "No Teeth" in Australia, "HIV symptoms" in Zimbabwe, "Broken Teeth" in United Kingdom, "Cleft palate" in Philippines, "Toothache" in Indonesia and the comparison of top five searched terms provided the "Gingivitis" with highest search volume. The results from the present study offers an insight into a competent tool that can analyse and compare oral diseases over time. The trend research platform can be used on emerging diseases and their drift in geographic population with great acumen. This tool can be utilized in forecasting, modulating marketing strategies and planning disability limitation techniques.

  8. The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: Regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy; Hockman-Wert, David

    2012-01-01

    Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.

  9. Body-size trends of the extinct giant shark Carcharocles megalodon: a deep-time perspective on marine apex predators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimiento, Catalina; Balk, Meghan A

    2015-06-01

    The extinct shark Carcharocles megalodon is one of the largest marine apex predators ever to exist. Nonetheless, little is known about its body-size variations through time and space. Here, we studied the body-size trends of C. megalodon through its temporal and geographic range to better understand its ecology and evolution. Given that this species was the last of the megatooth lineage, a group of species that shows a purported size increase through time, we hypothesized that C. megalodon also displayed this trend, increasing in size over time and reaching its largest size prior to extinction. We found that C. megalodon body-size distribution was left-skewed (suggesting a long-term selective pressure favoring larger individuals), and presented significant geographic variation (possibly as a result of the heterogeneous ecological constraints of this cosmopolitan species) over geologic time. Finally, we found that stasis was the general mode of size evolution of C. megalodon (i.e., no net changes over time), contrasting with the trends of the megatooth lineage and our hypothesis. Given that C. megalodon is a relatively long-lived species with a widely distributed fossil record, we further used this study system to provide a deep-time perspective to the understanding of the body-size trends of marine apex predators. For instance, our results suggest that (1) a selective pressure in predatory sharks for consuming a broader range of prey may favor larger individuals and produce left-skewed distributions on a geologic time scale; (2) body-size variations in cosmopolitan apex marine predators may depend on their interactions with geographically discrete communities; and (3) the inherent characteristics of shark species can produce stable sizes over geologic time, regardless of the size trends of their lineages.

  10. A novel stock forecasting model based on High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation Trends and Back Propagation Neural Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Hongjun; Dai, Zongli; Zhao, Aiwu; He, Jie

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to forecast the stock prices called High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation-Trends-based Back Propagation(HTBP)Neural Network model. First, we compare each value of the historical training data with the previous day's value to obtain a fluctuation trend time series (FTTS). On this basis, the FTTS blur into fuzzy time series (FFTS) based on the fluctuation of the increasing, equality, decreasing amplitude and direction. Since the relationship between FFTS and future wave trends is nonlinear, the HTBP neural network algorithm is used to find the mapping rules in the form of self-learning. Finally, the results of the algorithm output are used to predict future fluctuations. The proposed model provides some innovative features:(1)It combines fuzzy set theory and neural network algorithm to avoid overfitting problems existed in traditional models. (2)BP neural network algorithm can intelligently explore the internal rules of the actual existence of sequential data, without the need to analyze the influence factors of specific rules and the path of action. (3)The hybrid modal can reasonably remove noises from the internal rules by proper fuzzy treatment. This paper takes the TAIEX data set of Taiwan stock exchange as an example, and compares and analyzes the prediction performance of the model. The experimental results show that this method can predict the stock market in a very simple way. At the same time, we use this method to predict the Shanghai stock exchange composite index, and further verify the effectiveness and universality of the method.

  11. A novel stock forecasting model based on High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation Trends and Back Propagation Neural Network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongjun Guan

    Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to forecast the stock prices called High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation-Trends-based Back Propagation(HTBPNeural Network model. First, we compare each value of the historical training data with the previous day's value to obtain a fluctuation trend time series (FTTS. On this basis, the FTTS blur into fuzzy time series (FFTS based on the fluctuation of the increasing, equality, decreasing amplitude and direction. Since the relationship between FFTS and future wave trends is nonlinear, the HTBP neural network algorithm is used to find the mapping rules in the form of self-learning. Finally, the results of the algorithm output are used to predict future fluctuations. The proposed model provides some innovative features:(1It combines fuzzy set theory and neural network algorithm to avoid overfitting problems existed in traditional models. (2BP neural network algorithm can intelligently explore the internal rules of the actual existence of sequential data, without the need to analyze the influence factors of specific rules and the path of action. (3The hybrid modal can reasonably remove noises from the internal rules by proper fuzzy treatment. This paper takes the TAIEX data set of Taiwan stock exchange as an example, and compares and analyzes the prediction performance of the model. The experimental results show that this method can predict the stock market in a very simple way. At the same time, we use this method to predict the Shanghai stock exchange composite index, and further verify the effectiveness and universality of the method.

  12. SDG and qualitative trend based model multiple scale validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Dong; Xu, Xin; Yin, Jianjin; Zhang, Hongyu; Zhang, Beike

    2017-09-01

    Verification, Validation and Accreditation (VV&A) is key technology of simulation and modelling. For the traditional model validation methods, the completeness is weak; it is carried out in one scale; it depends on human experience. The SDG (Signed Directed Graph) and qualitative trend based multiple scale validation is proposed. First the SDG model is built and qualitative trends are added to the model. And then complete testing scenarios are produced by positive inference. The multiple scale validation is carried out by comparing the testing scenarios with outputs of simulation model in different scales. Finally, the effectiveness is proved by carrying out validation for a reactor model.

  13. A Family-Based Intervention for Preschoolers: Evaluating Sibling Outcomes. Data Trends #130

    Science.gov (United States)

    Research and Training Center on Family Support and Children's Mental Health, 2006

    2006-01-01

    "Data Trends" reports present summaries of research on mental health services for children and adolescents and their families. The article summarized in this "Data Trends" discusses family-based interventions and how they may have both direct and indirect effects. While the measurement of direct outcomes for a targeted group is important, a…

  14. Multi-annual changes of NOx emissions in megacity regions: nonlinear trend analysis of satellite measurement based estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Burrows

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Hazardous impact of air pollutant emissions from megacities on atmospheric composition on regional and global scales is currently an important issue in atmospheric research. However, the quantification of emissions and related effects is frequently a difficult task, especially in the case of developing countries, due to the lack of reliable data and information. This study examines possibilities to retrieve multi-annual NOx emissions changes in megacity regions from satellite measurements of nitrogen dioxide and to quantify them in terms of linear and nonlinear trends. By combining the retrievals of the GOME and SCIAMACHY satellite instrument data with simulations performed by the CHIMERE chemistry transport model, we obtain the time series of NOx emission estimates for the 12 largest urban agglomerations in Europe and the Middle East in the period from 1996 to 2008. We employ then a novel method allowing estimation of a nonlinear trend in a noisy time series of an observed variable. The method is based on the probabilistic approach and the use of artificial neural networks; it does not involve any quantitative a priori assumptions. As a result, statistically significant nonlinearities in the estimated NOx emission trends are detected in 5 megacities (Bagdad, Madrid, Milan, Moscow and Paris. Statistically significant upward linear trends are detected in Istanbul and Tehran, while downward linear trends are revealed in Berlin, London and the Ruhr agglomeration. The presence of nonlinearities in NOx emission changes in Milan, Paris and Madrid is confirmed by comparison of simulated NOx concentrations with independent air quality monitoring data. A good quantitative agreement between the linear trends in the simulated and measured near surface NOx concentrations is found in London.

  15. Time trends in births and cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horner-Johnson, Willi; Biel, Frances M; Darney, Blair G; Caughey, Aaron B

    2017-07-01

    Although it is likely that childbearing among women with disabilities is increasing, no empirical data have been published on changes over time in the numbers of women with disabilities giving birth. Further, while it is known that women with disabilities are at increased risk of cesarean delivery, temporal trends in cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities have not been examined. To assess time trends in births by any mode and in primary cesarean deliveries among women with physical, sensory, or intellectual/developmental disabilities. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using linked vital records and hospital discharge data from all deliveries in California, 2000-2010 (n = 4,605,061). We identified women with potential disabilities using ICD-9 codes. We used descriptive statistics and visualizations to examine time patterns. Logistic regression analyses assessed the association between disability and primary cesarean delivery, stratified by year. Among all women giving birth, the proportion with a disability increased from 0.27% in 2000 to 0.80% in 2010. Women with disabilities had significantly elevated odds of primary cesarean delivery in each year, but the magnitude of the odds ratio decreased over time from 2.60 (95% CI = 2.25 = 2.99) in 2000 to 1.66 (95% CI = 1.51-1.81) in 2010. Adequate clinician training is needed to address the perinatal care needs of the increasing numbers of women with disabilities giving birth. Continued efforts to understand cesarean delivery patterns and reasons for cesarean deliveries may help guide further reductions in proportions of cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities relative to women without disabilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Assessment of trends in inundation extent in the Barotse Floodplain, upper Zambezi River Basin: A remote sensing-based approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry Zimba

    2018-02-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The results revealed that there is observable inter-annual variability in inundation extent in the Barotse Floodplain with prominent differences demonstrated in both the flood ascending/peak and receding period. For the period 2003–2013 the results indicated a rising trend in inundation extent with a Mann–Kendall Z statistic of 1.71 and increase in magnitude of 33.1 km2 at significance level alpha of 0.05. Strong correlations between inundation extent and water level and between inundation extent and discharge with correlation coefficients of determination of 0.86 and 0.89 respectively were observed. For the period 2000–2011 water level time series showed a rising trend with the Mann–Kendall Z statistic of 2.97 and increase in magnitude of 0.1 m at significance level alpha of 0.05. Overall, during the period 1952–2004 discharge in the floodplain showed a declining trend with Mann–Kendall Z statistics of −2.88 and −3.38 at the inlet and outlet of the floodplain respectively. By correlation inference, the overall inundation extent trend in the floodplain was in a downward movement. Rainfall and discharge variability, high evapotranspiration and the changes in the land cover-use in the catchment of the floodplain are largely the factors affecting the observed variability and trends in inundation extent in the floodplain. The presented remote sensing based approach significantly reduces the need for the expensive and time limiting traditional physical field based wetland inundation mapping methods that form a limitation for achieving progress in wetland monitoring especially in open and sparsely gauged floodplains such as the Barotse.

  17. FBG-Based Monitoring of Geohazards: Current Status and Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Hu Zhu

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, natural and anthropogenic geohazards have occured frequently all over the world, and field monitoring is becoming an increasingly important task to mitigate these risks. However, conventional geotechnical instrumentations for monitoring geohazards have a number of weaknesses, such as low accuracy, poor durability, and high sensitivity to environmental interferences. In this aspect, fiber Bragg grating (FBG, as a popular fiber optic sensing technology, has gained an explosive amount of attention. Based on this technology, quasi-distributed sensing systems have been established to perform real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides, debris flows, land subsidence, earth fissures and so on. In this paper, the recent research and development activities of applying FBG systems to monitor different types of geohazards, especially those triggered by human activities, are critically reviewed. The working principles of newly developed FBG sensors are briefly introduced, and their features are summarized. This is followed by a discussion of recent case studies and lessons learned, and some critical problems associated with field implementation of FBG-based monitoring systems. Finally the challenges and future trends in this research area are presented.

  18. FBG-Based Monitoring of Geohazards: Current Status and Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hong-Hu; Shi, Bin; Zhang, Cheng-Cheng

    2017-02-24

    In recent years, natural and anthropogenic geohazards have occured frequently all over the world, and field monitoring is becoming an increasingly important task to mitigate these risks. However, conventional geotechnical instrumentations for monitoring geohazards have a number of weaknesses, such as low accuracy, poor durability, and high sensitivity to environmental interferences. In this aspect, fiber Bragg grating (FBG), as a popular fiber optic sensing technology, has gained an explosive amount of attention. Based on this technology, quasi-distributed sensing systems have been established to perform real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides, debris flows, land subsidence, earth fissures and so on. In this paper, the recent research and development activities of applying FBG systems to monitor different types of geohazards, especially those triggered by human activities, are critically reviewed. The working principles of newly developed FBG sensors are briefly introduced, and their features are summarized. This is followed by a discussion of recent case studies and lessons learned, and some critical problems associated with field implementation of FBG-based monitoring systems. Finally the challenges and future trends in this research area are presented.

  19. Reducing preoperative fasting time: A trend based on evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Aguilar-Nascimento, José Eduardo; Dock-Nascimento, Diana Borges

    2010-03-27

    Preoperative fasting is mandatory before anesthesia to reduce the risk of aspiration. However, the prescribed 6-8 h of fasting is usually prolonged to 12-16 h for various reasons. Prolonged fasting triggers a metabolic response that precipitates gluconeogenesis and increases the organic response to trauma. Various randomized trials and meta-analyses have consistently shown that is safe to reduce the preoperative fasting time with a carbohydrate-rich drink up to 2 h before surgery. Benefits related to this shorter preoperative fasting include the reduction of postoperative gastrointestinal discomfort and insulin resistance. New formulas containing amino acids such as glutamine and other peptides are being studied and are promising candidates to be used to reduce preoperative fasting time.

  20. Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

    2018-05-15

    Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can

  1. Historical Trends in Mean and Extreme Runoff and Streamflow Based on Observations and Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behzad Asadieh

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available To understand changes in global mean and extreme streamflow volumes over recent decades, we statistically analyzed runoff and streamflow simulated by the WBM-plus hydrological model using either observational-based meteorological inputs from WATCH Forcing Data (WFD, or bias-corrected inputs from five global climate models (GCMs provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP. Results show that the bias-corrected GCM inputs yield very good agreement with the observation-based inputs in average magnitude of runoff and streamflow. On global average, the observation-based simulated mean runoff and streamflow both decreased about 1.3% from 1971 to 2001. However, GCM-based simulations yield increasing trends over that period, with an inter-model global average of 1% for mean runoff and 0.9% for mean streamflow. In the GCM-based simulations, relative changes in extreme runoff and extreme streamflow (annual maximum daily values and annual-maximum seven-day streamflow are slightly greater than those of mean runoff and streamflow, in terms of global and continental averages. Observation-based simulations show increasing trend in mean runoff and streamflow for about one-half of the land areas and decreasing trend for the other half. However, mean and extreme runoff and streamflow based on the GCMs show increasing trend for approximately two-thirds of the global land area and decreasing trend for the other one-third. Further work is needed to understand why GCM simulations appear to indicate trends in streamflow that are more positive than those suggested by climate observations, even where, as in ISI-MIP, bias correction has been applied so that their streamflow climatology is realistic.

  2. Time-trend analysis and developing a forecasting model for the prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, southwest of Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mousavizadeh, A; Dastoorpoor, M; Naimi, E; Dohrabpour, K

    2018-01-01

    This study was designed and implemented to assess the current situation and to estimate the time trend of multiple sclerosis (MS), as well as to explain potential factors associated with such a trend. This longitudinal study was carried out based on analysis of the data from the monitoring and treatment surveillance system for 421 patients with MS in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, Iran, from 1990 to 2015. To this end, curve estimation approach was used to investigate the changes in prevalence and incidence of the disease, and univariate time series model analysis was applied in order to estimate the disease incidence in the next 10 years. The mean and standard deviation of age were 29.78 and 8.5 years at the time of diagnosis, and the mean and 95% confidence interval of age were 29.18 (28.86-30.77) and 29.68 (28.06-31.30) at the time of diagnosis for women and men, respectively. The sex ratio (males to females) was estimated as 3.3, and the prevalence of the disease was estimated as 60.14 in 100,000 people. The diagram of the 35-year trend of the disease indicated three distinct patterns with a tendency to increase in recent years. The prevalence and incidence trend of the disease in the study population is consistent with regional and global changes. Climatic and environmental factors such as extreme weather changes, dust particles, expansion of the application of new industrial materials, and regional wars with potential use of banned weapons are among the issues that may, in part, be able to justify the global and regional changes of the disease. Predictive models indicate a growing trend of the disease, highlighting the need for more regular monitoring of the disease trend in upcoming years. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Space-time trends in U.S. meteorological droughts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poulomi Ganguli

    2016-12-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The paper finds spatial coverage of extreme meteorological drought in the recent years (post-2010 exceeds that of the iconic droughts of the 1930s (the Dust Bowl era, and the 1950s. These results are in contrast with trends in spatial variance that does not exhibit any statistically significant trend. In addition, we find drought persistence remains relatively stationary over the last half century. The findings can inform drought monitoring and planning, and improve future drought resilience.

  4. Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

    2008-01-01

    different methods. As a result, conclusions from data comparisons have not been consistent. An expert panel was asked to evaluate the weight of evidence for whether the data, collected from 1940 to 1994, are sufficient to suggest or establish a secular trend in the timing of puberty markers in US boys...

  5. Mobile eHealth interventions for obesity: a timely opportunity to leverage convergence trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tufano, James T; Karras, Bryant T

    2005-12-20

    Obesity is often cited as the most prevalent chronic health condition and highest priority public health problem in the United States. There is a limited but growing body of evidence suggesting that mobile eHealth behavioral interventions, if properly designed, may be effective in promoting and sustaining successful weight loss and weight maintenance behavior changes. This paper reviews the current literature on the successes and failures of public health, provider-administered, and self-managed behavioral health interventions for weight loss. The prevailing theories of health behavior change are discussed from the perspective of how this knowledge can serve as an evidence base to inform the design of mobile eHealth weight loss interventions. Tailored informational interventions, which, in recent years, have proven to be the most effective form of conventional health behavior intervention for weight loss, are discussed. Lessons learned from the success of conventional tailored informational interventions and the early successes of desktop computer-assisted self-help weight management interventions are presented, as are design principles suggested by Social Cognitive Theory and the Social Marketing Model. Relevant computing and communications technology convergence trends are also discussed. The recent trends in rapid advancement, convergence, and public adoption of Web-enabled cellular telephone and wireless personal digital assistant (PDA) devices provide timely opportunities to deliver the mass customization capabilities, reach, and interactivity required for the development, administration, and adoption of effective population-level eHealth tailored informational interventions for obesity.

  6. Twenty-five year socioeconomic trends in leisure-time and commuting physical activity among employed Finns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mäkinen, T; Borodulin, K; Laatikainen, T; Fogelholm, M; Prättälä, R

    2009-04-01

    The trend of socioeconomic differences in physical activity is largely unknown in Finland. In this study, we examined socioeconomic trends in leisure-time and commuting physical activity among Finns in 1978-2002. Nationwide data were derived from an annually repeated cross-sectional Finnish Adult Health Behavior Survey. People under the age of 25, students, the unemployed, and retirees were excluded from the analysis. The final data set included 25 513 women and 25 302 men. Socioeconomic variables included education, occupation, and household income. Odds ratios for being physically active and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. People with the lowest income were less leisure-time and commuting physically active. Among women, low occupational status was associated with high commuting physical activity whereas among men such an association was not found. No educational differences among men in leisure-time and commuting physical activity over time were found. Some indications were found that educational differences in leisure-time physical activity among women might have been reversed. Our data suggest that socioeconomic differences in leisure-time and commuting physical activity are quite small and have remained similar between 1978 and 2002.

  7. Development of time-trend model for analysing and predicting case pattern of dog bite injury induced rabies-like-illness in Liberia, 2014-2017.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jomah, N D; Ojo, J F; Odigie, E A; Olugasa, B O

    2014-12-01

    The post-civil war records of dog bite injuries (DBI) and rabies-like-illness (RLI) among humans in Liberia is a vital epidemiological resource for developing a predictive model to guide the allocation of resources towards human rabies control. Whereas DBI and RLI are high, they are largely under-reported. The objective of this study was to develop a time model of the case-pattern and apply it to derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of DBI-RLI cases. A retrospective 6 years data of DBI distribution among humans countrywide were converted to quarterly series using a transformation technique of Minimizing Squared First Difference statistic. The generated dataset was used to train a time-trend model of the DBI-RLI syndrome in Liberia. An additive detenninistic time-trend model was selected due to its performance compared to multiplication model of trend and seasonal movement. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict DBI cases for a prospective 4 years period, covering 2014-2017. The two-stage predictive model of DBI case-pattern between 2014 and 2017 was characterised by a uniform upward trend within Liberia's coastal and hinterland Counties over the forecast period. This paper describes a translational application of the time-trend distribution pattern of DBI epidemics, 2008-2013 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. A computationally feasible two-stage time-trend permutation approach is proposed to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on DBI-RLI in Liberia.

  8. Prediction degradation trend of nuclear equipment based on GM (1, 1)-Markov chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Liming; Zhao Xinwen; Cai Qi; Wu Guangjiang

    2010-01-01

    The degradation trend prediction results are important references for nuclear equipment in-service inspection and maintenance plan. But it is difficult to predict the nuclear equipment degradation trend accurately by the traditional statistical probability due to the small samples, lack of degradation data and the wavy degradation locus. Therefore, a method of equipment degradation trend prediction based on GM (1, l)-Markov chain was proposed in this paper. The method which makes use of the advantages of both GM (1, 1) method and Markov chain could improve the prediction precision of nuclear equipment degradation trend. The paper collected degradation data as samples and accurately predicted the degradation trend of canned motor pump. Compared with the prediction results by GM (1, 1) method, the prediction precision by GM (1, l)-Markov chain is more accurate. (authors)

  9. Extracting a robust U.S. business cycle using a time-varying multivariate model-based bandpass filter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopman, S.J.; Creal, D.D.

    2010-01-01

    We develop a flexible business cycle indicator that accounts for potential time variation in macroeconomic variables. The coincident economic indicator is based on a multivariate trend cycle decomposition model and is constructed from a moderate set of US macroeconomic time series. In particular, we

  10. Trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation time series over Greece: 1955-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marougianni, G.; Melas, D.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Anandranistakis, E.

    2012-04-01

    In this study, a database of air temperature and precipitation time series from the network of Hellenic National Meteorological Service has been developed in the framework of the project GEOCLIMA, co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009. Initially, a quality test was applied to the raw data and then missing observations have been imputed with a regularized, spatial-temporal expectation - maximization algorithm to complete the climatic record. Next, a quantile - matching algorithm was applied in order to verify the homogeneity of the data. The processed time series were used for the calculation of temporal annual and seasonal trends of air temperature and precipitation. Monthly maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation means at all available stations in Greece were analyzed for temporal trends and spatial variation patterns for the longest common time period of homogenous data (1955 - 2010), applying the Mann-Kendall test. The majority of the examined stations showed a significant increase in the summer maximum and minimum temperatures; this could be possibly physically linked to the Etesian winds, because of the less frequent expansion of the low over the southeastern Mediterranean. Summer minimum temperatures have been increasing at a faster rate than that of summer maximum temperatures, reflecting an asymmetric change of extreme temperature distributions. Total annual precipitation has been significantly decreased at the stations located in western Greece, as well as in the southeast, while the remaining areas exhibit a non-significant negative trend. This reduction is very likely linked to the positive phase of the NAO that resulted in an increase in the frequency and persistence of anticyclones over the Mediterranean.

  11. Time trends in mental health care utilization in a Dutch area, 1976-1990

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oldehinkel, AJ

    This paper concerns time trends in mental health care utilization in a Dutch area from 1976 to 1990. In general, there was an increase in the use of psychiatric services during the study period, both in terms of the number of new patients (per 1000 population) and in terms of the amount of care

  12. Television Viewing at Home: Age Trends in Visual Attention and Time with TV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Daniel R.; And Others

    1986-01-01

    Decribes age trends in television viewing time and visual attention of children and adults videotaped in their homes for 10-day periods. Shows that the increase in visual attention to television during the preschool years is consistent with the theory that television program comprehensibility is a major determinant of attention in young children.…

  13. Time trends of perfluorinated alkyl acids in serum from Danish pregnant women 2008-2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard-Olesen, Christian; Bach, Cathrine C; Long, Manhai

    2016-01-01

    for sixteen PFAAs using solid phase extraction and liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). We investigated the time trends for seven PFAAs, which were detected in more than 50% of the samples: perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), perfluoroheptane sulfonate (PFHpS), perfluorooctane sulfonate...

  14. Orthopedic Surgery among Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Population-based study to Identify Risk factors, Sex differences, and Time trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Michael; Crowson, Cynthia S; Matteson, Eric L; Makol, Ashima

    2017-12-20

    To identify risk factors for large joint (LJS) versus small joint surgery (SJS) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and evaluate trends in surgery rates over time. A retrospective medical record review was performed of all orthopedic surgeries following first fulfillment of 1987 ACR criteria for adult-onset RA among residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, USA in 1980-2013. Risk factors were examined using Cox models adjusted for age, sex and calendar year of RA incidence. Trends in incidence of joint surgeries were examined using Poisson regression models. A total of 1077 patients with RA (mean age 56 years, 69% female, 66% seropositive) were followed for a median of 10.7 years during which 112 (90 women) underwent at least one SJS and 204 (141 women) underwent at least one LJS. Risk factors included advanced age, rheumatoid factor and anti-CCP antibody positivity for both SJS and LJS, and BMI≥30 kg/m 2 for LJS. Risk factors for SJS and LJS at any time during follow-up included the presence of radiographic erosions, large joint swelling, and methotrexate use. SJS rates decreased by calendar year of incidence (hazard ratio 0.53; p=0.001), with significant decline in SJS after 1995. The cumulative incidence of SJS was higher in women than men (p=0.008). In recent years, there has been a significant decline in rates of SJS but not LJS in patients with RA. The incidence of SJS is higher among women. Traditional RA risk factors are strong predictors for SJS and LJS. Increasing age and obesity are predictive of LJS. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  15. A fast density-based clustering algorithm for real-time Internet of Things stream.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amini, Amineh; Saboohi, Hadi; Wah, Teh Ying; Herawan, Tutut

    2014-01-01

    Data streams are continuously generated over time from Internet of Things (IoT) devices. The faster all of this data is analyzed, its hidden trends and patterns discovered, and new strategies created, the faster action can be taken, creating greater value for organizations. Density-based method is a prominent class in clustering data streams. It has the ability to detect arbitrary shape clusters, to handle outlier, and it does not need the number of clusters in advance. Therefore, density-based clustering algorithm is a proper choice for clustering IoT streams. Recently, several density-based algorithms have been proposed for clustering data streams. However, density-based clustering in limited time is still a challenging issue. In this paper, we propose a density-based clustering algorithm for IoT streams. The method has fast processing time to be applicable in real-time application of IoT devices. Experimental results show that the proposed approach obtains high quality results with low computation time on real and synthetic datasets.

  16. Time trends in burdens of cadmium, lead, and mercury in the population of northern Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wennberg, Maria; Lundh, Thomas; Bergdahl, Ingvar A.; Hallmans, Goeran; Jansson, Jan-Hakan; Stegmayr, Birgitta; Custodio, Hipolito M.; Skerfving, Staffan

    2006-01-01

    The time trends of exposure to heavy metals are not adequately known. This is a worldwide problem with regard to the basis for preventive actions and evaluation of their effects. This study addresses time trends for the three toxic elements cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), and lead (Pb). Concentrations in erythrocytes (Ery) were determined in a subsample of the population-based MONICA surveys from 1990, 1994, and 1999 in a total of 600 men and women aged 25-74 years. The study took place in the two northernmost counties in Sweden. To assess the effect of changes in the environment, adjustments were made for life-style factors that are determinants of exposure. Annual decreases of 5-6% were seen for Ery-Pb levels (adjusted for age and changes in alcohol intake) and Ery-Hg levels (adjusted for age and changes in fish intake). Ery-Cd levels (adjusted for age) showed a similar significant decrease in smoking men. It is concluded that for Pb and maybe also Hg the actions against pollution during recent decades have caused a rapid decrease of exposure; for Hg the decreased use of dental amalgam may also have had an influence. For Cd, the decline in Ery-Cd was seen only in smokers, indicating that Cd exposure from tobacco has decreased, while other environmental sources of Cd have not changed significantly. To further improve the health status in Sweden, it is important to decrease the pollution of Cd, and actions against smoking in the community are important

  17. Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mudelsee

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A fundamental problem in paleoclimatology is to take fully into account the various error sources when examining proxy records with quantitative methods of statistical time series analysis. Records from dated climate archives such as speleothems add extra uncertainty from the age determination to the other sources that consist in measurement and proxy errors. This paper examines three stalagmite time series of oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O from two caves in western Germany, the series AH-1 from the Atta Cave and the series Bu1 and Bu4 from the Bunker Cave. These records carry regional information about past changes in winter precipitation and temperature. U/Th and radiocarbon dating reveals that they cover the later part of the Holocene, the past 8.6 thousand years (ka. We analyse centennial- to millennial-scale climate trends by means of nonparametric Gasser–Müller kernel regression. Error bands around fitted trend curves are determined by combining (1 block bootstrap resampling to preserve noise properties (shape, autocorrelation of the δ18O residuals and (2 timescale simulations (models StalAge and iscam. The timescale error influences on centennial- to millennial-scale trend estimation are not excessively large. We find a "mid-Holocene climate double-swing", from warm to cold to warm winter conditions (6.5 ka to 6.0 ka to 5.1 ka, with warm–cold amplitudes of around 0.5‰ δ18O; this finding is documented by all three records with high confidence. We also quantify the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, the Little Ice Age (LIA and the current warmth. Our analyses cannot unequivocally support the conclusion that current regional winter climate is warmer than that during the MWP.

  18. 45-Year trends in women's use of time and household management energy expenditure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Archer

    Full Text Available CONTEXT: Relationships between socio-environmental factors and obesity are poorly understood due to a dearth of longitudinal population-level research. The objective of this analysis was to examine 45-year trends in time-use, household management (HM and energy expenditure in women. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: Using national time-use data from women 19-64 years of age, we quantified time allocation and household management energy expenditure (HMEE from 1965 to 2010. HM was defined as the sum of time spent in food preparation, post-meal cleaning activities (e.g., dish-washing, clothing maintenance (e.g., laundry, and general housework. HMEE was calculated using body weights from national surveys and metabolic equivalents. RESULTS: The time allocated to HM by women (19-64 yrs decreased from 25.7 hr/week in 1965 to 13.3 hr/week in 2010 (P<0.001, with non-employed women decreasing by 16.6 hr/week and employed women by 6.7 hr/week (P<0.001. HMEE for non-employed women decreased 42% from 25.1 Mj/week (6004 kilocalories per week in 1965 to 14.6 Mj/week (3486 kcal/week in 2010, a decrement of 10.5 Mj/week or 1.5 Mj/day (2518 kcal/week; 360 kcal/day (P<0.001, whereas employed women demonstrated a 30% decrement of 3.9 Mj/week, 0.55 Mj/day (923 kcal/week, 132 kcal/day (P<0.001. The time women spent in screen-based media use increased from 8.3 hr/week in 1965 to 16.5 hr/week in 2010 (P<0.001, with non-employed women increasing 9.6 hr/week and employed women 7.5 hr/week (P<0.001. CONCLUSIONS: From 1965 to 2010, there was a large and significant decrease in the time allocated to HM. By 2010, women allocated 25% more time to screen-based media use than HM (i.e., cooking, cleaning, and laundry combined. The reallocation of time from active pursuits (i.e., housework to sedentary pastimes (e.g., watching TV has important health consequences. These results suggest that the decrement in HMEE may have contributed to the increasing prevalence of obesity in women during

  19. Emerging medical informatics research trends detection based on MeSH terms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyu, Peng-Hui; Yao, Qiang; Mao, Jin; Zhang, Shi-Jing

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study is to analyze the research trends of medical informatics over the last 12 years. A new method based on MeSH terms was proposed to identify emerging topics and trends of medical informatics research. Informetric methods and visualization technologies were applied to investigate research trends of medical informatics. The metric of perspective factor (PF) embedding MeSH terms was appropriately employed to assess the perspective quality for journals. The emerging MeSH terms have changed dramatically over the last 12 years, identifying two stages of medical informatics: the "medical imaging stage" and the "medical informatics stage". The focus of medical informatics has shifted from acquisition and storage of healthcare data by integrating computational, informational, cognitive and organizational sciences to semantic analysis for problem solving and clinical decision-making. About 30 core journals were determined by Bradford's Law in the last 3 years in this area. These journals, with high PF values, have relative high perspective quality and lead the trend of medical informatics.

  20. Doctors' enjoyment of their work and satisfaction with time available for leisure: UK time trend questionnaire-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surman, Geraldine; Lambert, Trevor W; Goldacre, Michael

    2016-04-01

    Doctors' job satisfaction is important to the health service to ensure commitment, effective training, service provision and retention. Job satisfaction matters to doctors for their personal happiness, fulfilment, service to patients and duty to employers. Monitoring job satisfaction trends informs workforce planning. We surveyed UK-trained doctors up to 5 years after graduation for six graduation year cohorts: 1996, 1999, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2012. Doctors scored their job enjoyment (Enjoyment) and satisfaction with time outside work (Leisure) on a scale from 1 (lowest enjoyment/satisfaction) to 10 (highest). Overall, 47% had a high level of Enjoyment (scores 8-10) 1 year after graduation and 56% after 5 years. For Leisure, the corresponding figures were 19% and 37% at 1 and 5 years, respectively. For Leisure at 1 year, high scores were given by about 10% in the 1990s, rising to about 25% in the mid-2000s. Low scores (1-3) for Enjoyment were given by 15% of qualifiers of 1996, falling to 5% by 2008; corresponding figures for Leisure were 42% and 19%. At 5 years, the corresponding figures were 6% and 4%, and 23% and 17%. Enjoyment and Leisure were scored higher by general practitioners than doctors in other specialties. Both measures varied little by sex, ethnicity or medical school attended. Scores for Enjoyment were generally high; those for Leisure were lower. Policy initiatives should address why this aspect of satisfaction is low, particularly in the first year after graduation but also among hospital doctors 5 years after graduation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  1. Depth-time interpolation of feature trends extracted from mobile microelectrode data with kernel functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Stephen; Hargreaves, Eric L; Baltuch, Gordon H; Jaggi, Jurg L; Danish, Shabbar F

    2012-01-01

    Microelectrode recording (MER) is necessary for precision localization of target structures such as the subthalamic nucleus during deep brain stimulation (DBS) surgery. Attempts to automate this process have produced quantitative temporal trends (feature activity vs. time) extracted from mobile MER data. Our goal was to evaluate computational methods of generating spatial profiles (feature activity vs. depth) from temporal trends that would decouple automated MER localization from the clinical procedure and enhance functional localization in DBS surgery. We evaluated two methods of interpolation (standard vs. kernel) that generated spatial profiles from temporal trends. We compared interpolated spatial profiles to true spatial profiles that were calculated with depth windows, using correlation coefficient analysis. Excellent approximation of true spatial profiles is achieved by interpolation. Kernel-interpolated spatial profiles produced superior correlation coefficient values at optimal kernel widths (r = 0.932-0.940) compared to standard interpolation (r = 0.891). The choice of kernel function and kernel width resulted in trade-offs in smoothing and resolution. Interpolation of feature activity to create spatial profiles from temporal trends is accurate and can standardize and facilitate MER functional localization of subcortical structures. The methods are computationally efficient, enhancing localization without imposing additional constraints on the MER clinical procedure during DBS surgery. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  2. Trend extraction of rail corrugation measured dynamically based on the relevant low-frequency principal components reconstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yanfu; Liu, Hongli; Ma, Ziji

    2016-01-01

    Rail corrugation dynamic measurement techniques are critical to guarantee transport security and guide rail maintenance. During the inspection process, low-frequency trends caused by rail fluctuation are usually superimposed on rail corrugation and seriously affect the assessment of rail maintenance quality. In order to extract and remove the nonlinear and non-stationary trends from original mixed signals, a hybrid model based ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and modified principal component analysis (MPCA) is proposed in this paper. Compared with the existing de-trending methods based on EMD, this method first considers low-frequency intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) thought to be underlying trend components that maybe contain some unrelated components, such as white noise and low-frequency signal itself, and proposes to use PCA to accurately extract the pure trends from the IMFs containing multiple components. On the other hand, due to the energy contribution ratio between trends and mixed signals is prior unknown, and the principal components (PCs) decomposed by PCA are arranged in order of energy reduction without considering frequency distribution, the proposed method modifies traditional PCA and just selects relevant low-frequency PCs to reconstruct the trends based on the zero-crossing numbers (ZCN) of each PC. Extensive tests are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show the proposed EEMD-PCA-ZCN is an effective tool for trend extraction of rail corrugation measured dynamically. (paper)

  3. Interfractional trend analysis of dose differences based on 2D transit portal dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Persoon, L C G G; Nijsten, S M J J G; Wilbrink, F J; Podesta, M; Snaith, J A D; Lustberg, T; Van Elmpt, W J C; Van Gils, F; Verhaegen, F

    2012-01-01

    Dose delivery of a radiotherapy treatment can be influenced by a number of factors. It has been demonstrated that the electronic portal imaging device (EPID) is valuable for transit portal dosimetry verification. Patient related dose differences can emerge at any time during treatment and can be categorized in two types: (1) systematic—appearing repeatedly, (2) random—appearing sporadically during treatment. The aim of this study is to investigate how systematic and random information appears in 2D transit dose distributions measured in the EPID plane over the entire course of a treatment and how this information can be used to examine interfractional trends, building toward a methodology to support adaptive radiotherapy. To create a trend overview of the interfractional changes in transit dose, the predicted portal dose for the different beams is compared to a measured portal dose using a γ evaluation. For each beam of the delivered fraction, information is extracted from the γ images to differentiate systematic from random dose delivery errors. From the systematic differences of a fraction for a projected anatomical structures, several metrics are extracted like percentage pixels with |γ| > 1. We demonstrate for four example cases the trends and dose difference causes which can be detected with this method. Two sample prostate cases show the occurrence of a random and systematic difference and identify the organ that causes the difference. In a lung cancer case a trend is shown of a rapidly diminishing atelectasis (lung fluid) during the course of treatment, which was detected with this trend analysis method. The final example is a breast cancer case where we show the influence of set-up differences on the 2D transit dose. A method is presented based on 2D portal transit dosimetry to record dose changes throughout the course of treatment, and to allow trend analysis of dose discrepancies. We show in example cases that this method can identify the causes of

  4. Comparison of two regression-based approaches for determining nutrient and sediment fluxes and trends in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyer, Douglas; Hirsch, Robert M.; Hyer, Kenneth

    2012-01-01

    Nutrient and sediment fluxes and changes in fluxes over time are key indicators that water resource managers can use to assess the progress being made in improving the structure and function of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. The U.S. Geological Survey collects annual nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) and sediment flux data and computes trends that describe the extent to which water-quality conditions are changing within the major Chesapeake Bay tributaries. Two regression-based approaches were compared for estimating annual nutrient and sediment fluxes and for characterizing how these annual fluxes are changing over time. The two regression models compared are the traditionally used ESTIMATOR and the newly developed Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS). The model comparison focused on answering three questions: (1) What are the differences between the functional form and construction of each model? (2) Which model produces estimates of flux with the greatest accuracy and least amount of bias? (3) How different would the historical estimates of annual flux be if WRTDS had been used instead of ESTIMATOR? One additional point of comparison between the two models is how each model determines trends in annual flux once the year-to-year variations in discharge have been determined. All comparisons were made using total nitrogen, nitrate, total phosphorus, orthophosphorus, and suspended-sediment concentration data collected at the nine U.S. Geological Survey River Input Monitoring stations located on the Susquehanna, Potomac, James, Rappahannock, Appomattox, Pamunkey, Mattaponi, Patuxent, and Choptank Rivers in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Two model characteristics that uniquely distinguish ESTIMATOR and WRTDS are the fundamental model form and the determination of model coefficients. ESTIMATOR and WRTDS both predict water-quality constituent concentration by developing a linear relation between the natural logarithm of observed constituent

  5. Trends in Leisure Time Physical Activity among Young People in Finland, 1977-2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laakso, Lauri; Telama, Risto; Nupponen, Heimo; Rimpela, Arja; Pere, Lasse

    2008-01-01

    The decline in physical activity among young people has been discussed in the media during recent decades, although the scientific evidence for this has been scarce. The aim of this study was to investigate trends over 30 years in leisure time physical activity of Finnish boys and girls aged 12, 14, 16 and 18 years from 1977 to 2007. The data were…

  6. Parametric trends analysis of the critical heat flux based on artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moon, S.K.; Baek, W.P.; Chang, S.H.

    1996-01-01

    Parametric trends of the critical heat flux (CHF) are analyzed by applying artificial neural networks (ANNs) to a CHF data base for upward flow of water in uniformly heated vertical round tubes. The analyses are performed from three viewpoints, i.e., for fixed inlet conditions, for fixed exit conditions, and based on local conditions hypothesis. Katto's and Groeneveld et al. dimensionless parameters are used to train the ANNs with the experimental CHF data. The trained ANNs predict the CHF better than any other conventional correlations, showing RMS errors of 8.9%, 13.1% and 19.3% for fixed inlet conditions, for fixed exit conditions, and for local conditions hypothesis, respectively. The parametric trends of the CHF obtained from those trained ANNs show a general agreement with previous understanding. In addition, this study provides more comprehensive information and indicates interesting points for the effects of the tube diameter, the heated length, and the mass flux. It is expected that better understanding of the parametric trends is feasible with an extended data base. (orig.)

  7. Trends in disability of instrumental activities of daily living among older Chinese adults, 1997-2006: population based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yajun; Welmer, Anna-Karin; Möller, Jette; Qiu, Chengxuan

    2017-08-28

    Data on trends for disability in instrumental activity of daily living (IADL) are sparse in older Chinese adults. To assess trends in prevalence and incidence of IADL disability among older Chinese adults and to explore contributing factors. Population based study. 15 provinces and municipalities in China. Participants (age ≥60) were from four waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey, conducted in 1997 (n=1533), 2000 (n=1581), 2004 (n=2028) and 2006 (n=2256), and from two cohorts constructed within the national survey: cohort 1997-2004 (n=712) and cohort 2000-2006 (n=823). IADL disability was defined as inability to perform one or more of the following: shopping, cooking, using transportation, financing and telephoning. Data were analysed with logistic regression and generalised estimating equation models. The prevalence of IADL disability significantly decreased from 1997 to 2006 in the total sample and in all of the subgroups by age, sex, living region and IADL items (all p trend 0.10). The recovery rate from IADL disability significantly increased over time in those aged 60-69 years (p=0.03). Living in a rural area or access to local clinics for healthcare was less disabling over time (p trend <0.02). The prevalence of IADL disability decreased among older Chinese adults during 1997-2006, whereas the incidence remained stable. The declining prevalence of IADL disability might be partly due to the decreased duration of IADL disability, and to improvements in living conditions and healthcare facilities over time. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  8. Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2016-12-01

    Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended

  9. Temporal trends in non-occupational sedentary behaviours from Australian Time Use Surveys 1992, 1997 and 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chau Josephine Y

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Current epidemiological data highlight the potential detrimental associations between sedentary behaviours and health outcomes, yet little is known about temporal trends in adult sedentary time. This study used time use data to examine population trends in sedentary behaviours in non-occupational domains and more specifically during leisure time. Methods We conducted secondary analysis of population representative data from the Australian Time Use Surveys 1992, 1997 and 2006 involving respondents aged 20 years and over with completed time use diaries for two days. Weighted samples for each survey year were: n = 5851 (1992, n = 6419 (1997 and n = 5505 (2006. We recoded all primary activities by domain (sleep, occupational, transport, leisure, household, education and intensity (sedentary, light, moderate. Adjusted multiple linear regressions tested for differences in time spent in non-occupational sedentary behaviours in 1992 and 1997 with 2006 as the reference year. Results Total non-occupational sedentary time was slightly lower in 1997 than in 2006 (mean = 894 min/2d and 906 min/2d, respectively; B = −11.2; 95%CI: -21.5, -0.9. Compared with 2006, less time was spent in 1997 in sedentary transport (B-6.7; 95%CI: -10.4, -3.0 and sedentary education (B = −6.3; 95%CI: -10.5, -2.2 while household and leisure sedentary time remained stable. Time engaged in different types of leisure-time sedentary activities changed between 1997 and 2006: leisure-time computer use increased (B = −26.7; 95%CI: -29.5, -23.8, while other leisure-time sedentary behaviours (e.g., reading, listening to music, hobbies and crafts showed small concurrent reductions. In 1992, leisure screen time was lower than in 2006: TV-viewing (B = −24.2; 95%CI: -31.2, -17.2, computer use (B = −35.3; 95%CI: -37.7, -32.8. In 2006, 90 % of leisure time was spent sedentary, of which 53 % was screen time. Conclusions Non

  10. Alcohol consumption trends in Australia: Comparing surveys and sales-based measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livingston, Michael; Callinan, Sarah; Raninen, Jonas; Pennay, Amy; Dietze, Paul M

    2018-04-01

    Survey data remain a crucial means for monitoring alcohol consumption, but there has been limited work done to ensure that surveys adequately capture changes in per-capita consumption in Australia. In this study, we explore how trends in consumption from two major Australian surveys compare with an official measure of per-capita consumption between 2001 and 2014 and examine age-specific trends in drinking. Data were from five waves of the cross-sectional National Health Survey (total n = 113 279) and 12 waves of the longitudinal Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Study (average n = 12 347). Overall and age-specific estimates of annual alcohol consumption were derived and compared with official per-capita consumption and previous analyses of the National Drug Strategy Household Survey. In terms of overall consumption, both surveys broadly reflected trends in per-capita consumption, especially the decline that has been observed since 2007/2008. Age-specific trends were broadly similar, with the recent decline in consumption clearly concentrated among teenagers and young adults. The main Australian monitoring surveys remain useful monitoring tools for alcohol consumption in Australia. There is consistent evidence that the recent declines in Australian per-capita consumption have been driven by sharp falls in drinking among young people, a trend that requires further study. [Livingston M, Callinan S, Raninen J, Pennay A, Dietze PM. Alcohol consumption trends in Australia: Comparing surveys and sales-based measures. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;00:000-000]. © 2017 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  11. Gender Differences Time Trends for Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components among Tehranian Children and Adolescents

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    Maryam Barzin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims. To investigate the trend of metabolic syndrome and its components in Tehran children and adolescents during a median followup of 6.6 years. Methods. Data from 1999–2001 (phase I, 2002–2005 (phase II, and 2006–2008 (phase III of the Tehran, Lipid and Glucose Study were analyzed (=5439; age 6–18 years for the trend of metabolic syndrome (MetS and its components. General estimation equation (GEE models were used to analyze this correlated data. Results. The crude prevalence of MetS for boys at baseline was 13.2%, which increased to 16.4% in the third phase. In girls, the prevalence of Mets decreased from 11.8% at baseline to 6% during followup. The odd ratios (OR of obesity over the whole study period were raised in both sexes. The OR of abdominal obesity increased significantly in boys, but no change was observed in girls. No significant OR was observed in boys, while OR for MetS was shown to have a decreasing trend in girls during the followup. In the three time points, the ORs of MetS decreased significantly in girls but no significant difference was observed in boys. Conclusion. Inspite of increasing trend for obesity in both sexes, the trend of MetS decreased in girls and was relatively stable in boys, in Tehranian children, and adolescents.

  12. Separating yolk from white: A filter based on economic properties of trend and cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Zhou, Peng

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a new filter technique to separate trend and cycle based on stylised economic properties of trend and cycle, rather than relying on ad hoc statistical proper-ties such as frequency. Given the theoretical separation between economic growth and business cycle literature, it is necessary to make the measures of trend and cycle match what the respective theories intend to explain. The proposed filter is applied to the long macroeconomic data collected by the Bank of England (1...

  13. Worldwide incidence of malaria in 2009: estimates, time trends, and a critique of methods.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard E Cibulskis

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Measuring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 6, including estimates of, and time trends in, the number of malaria cases, has relied on risk maps constructed from surveys of parasite prevalence, and on routine case reports compiled by health ministries. Here we present a critique of both methods, illustrated with national incidence estimates for 2009. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We compiled information on the number of cases reported by National Malaria Control Programs in 99 countries with ongoing malaria transmission. For 71 countries we estimated the total incidence of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax by adjusting the number of reported cases using data on reporting completeness, the proportion of suspects that are parasite-positive, the proportion of confirmed cases due to each Plasmodium species, and the extent to which patients use public sector health facilities. All four factors varied markedly among countries and regions. For 28 African countries with less reliable routine surveillance data, we estimated the number of cases from model-based methods that link measures of malaria transmission with case incidence. In 2009, 98% of cases were due to P. falciparum in Africa and 65% in other regions. There were an estimated 225 million malaria cases (5th-95th centiles, 146-316 million worldwide, 176 (110-248 million in the African region, and 49 (36-68 million elsewhere. Our estimates are lower than other published figures, especially survey-based estimates for non-African countries. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of malaria incidence derived from routine surveillance data were typically lower than those derived from surveys of parasite prevalence. Carefully interpreted surveillance data can be used to monitor malaria trends in response to control efforts, and to highlight areas where malaria programs and health information systems need to be strengthened. As malaria incidence declines around the world, evaluation of control efforts

  14. Wairarapa Valley groundwater : residence time, flow pattern, and hydrochemistry trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgenstern, U.

    2005-01-01

    The Wairarapa groundwater system has a complicated hydrogeological setting as it evolved from sea level changes, tectonic activity, and geomorphic process. Due to increasing groundwater demand a better understanding of the groundwater resources is required to help achieve effective management and sustainable use. In addition to previous 'classical' hydrogeology studies, this report represents the first stage of a comprehensive approach using age dating and chemistry time trends for understanding the Wairarapa groundwater system. The methodology of groundwater age dating and mixing models is described in Appendix 1. Historic tritium data were evaluated, and combined with new tritium and CFC/SF 6 data to allow for robust age dating. (author). 14 refs., 30 figs

  15. Health Information System Role-Based Access Control Current Security Trends and Challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Carvalho Junior, Marcelo Antonio; Bandiera-Paiva, Paulo

    2018-01-01

    This article objective is to highlight implementation characteristics, concerns, or limitations over role-based access control (RBAC) use on health information system (HIS) using industry-focused literature review of current publishing for that purpose. Based on the findings, assessment for indication of RBAC is obsolete considering HIS authorization control needs. We have selected articles related to our investigation theme "RBAC trends and limitations" in 4 different sources related to health informatics or to the engineering technical field. To do so, we have applied the following search query string: "Role-Based Access Control" OR "RBAC" AND "Health information System" OR "EHR" AND "Trends" OR "Challenges" OR "Security" OR "Authorization" OR "Attacks" OR "Permission Assignment" OR "Permission Relation" OR "Permission Mapping" OR "Constraint". We followed PRISMA applicable flow and general methodology used on software engineering for systematic review. 20 articles were selected after applying inclusion and exclusion criteria resulting contributions from 10 different countries. 17 articles advocate RBAC adaptations. The main security trends and limitations mapped were related to emergency access, grant delegation, and interdomain access control. Several publishing proposed RBAC adaptations and enhancements in order to cope current HIS use characteristics. Most of the existent RBAC studies are not related to health informatics industry though. There is no clear indication of RBAC obsolescence for HIS use.

  16. Course-based undergraduate research experiences in molecular biosciences-patterns, trends, and faculty support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jack T H

    2017-08-15

    Inquiry-driven learning, research internships and course-based undergraduate research experiences all represent mechanisms through which educators can engage undergraduate students in scientific research. In life sciences education, the benefits of undergraduate research have been thoroughly evaluated, but limitations in infrastructure and training can prevent widespread uptake of these practices. It is not clear how faculty members can integrate complex laboratory techniques and equipment into their unique context, while finding the time and resources to implement undergraduate research according to best practice guidelines. This review will go through the trends and patterns in inquiry-based undergraduate life science projects with particular emphasis on molecular biosciences-the research-aligned disciplines of biochemistry, molecular cell biology, microbiology, and genomics and bioinformatics. This will provide instructors with an overview of the model organisms, laboratory techniques and research questions that are adaptable for semester-long projects, and serve as starting guidelines for course-based undergraduate research. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. A Google Trends-based approach for monitoring NSSI

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    Bragazzi NL

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Nicola Luigi Bragazzi DINOGMI, Department of Neuroscience, Rehabilitation, Ophthalmology, Genetics, Maternal and Child Health, Section of Psychiatry, University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy Abstract: Non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI is an intentional, direct, and socially unacceptable behavior resulting in the destruction of one's own body tissues with no intention of dying or committing suicide, even though it is associated with a higher risk of attempted, planned, or just considered suicide. In this preliminary report, we introduce the concept of “NSSI 2.0”; that is to say, the study of the Internet usage by subjects with NSSI, and we introduce a Google Trends-based approach for monitoring NSSI, called NSSI infodemiology and infoveillance. Despite some limitations, Google Trends has already proven to be reliable for infectious diseases monitoring, and here we extend its application and potentiality in the field of suicidology. Ad hoc web portals and surveys could be designed in light of the reported results for helping people with NSSI. Keywords: infodemiology, infoveillance, Internet, non-suicidal self-injury

  18. Time trends and epidemiological patterns of perinatal lamb mortality in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmøy, Ingrid Hunter; Waage, Steinar

    2015-09-30

    Perinatal mortality is a major cause of loss in the sheep industry. Our aim was to explore time trends in crude population stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates in Norway. We used data on 6,435,715 lambs from flocks enrolled in the Norwegian Sheep Recording System (NSRS) from 2000 through 2010 for descriptive analysis of trends. Longitudinal patterns of mortality rates were compared for lambs within different levels of variables suspected to be associated with perinatal loss. There was an approximately linear increase in the annual proportion of stillborn lambs during the study period, from 3.3 % in 2000 to 4.7 % in 2010. In the same time period, average litter size of ewes in NSRS flocks increased from 2.00 to 2.19. However, a steady rise in stillbirth rate was observed within each litter size group, suggesting a gradually increasing impact on stillbirth risk of other, yet unidentified, factors. Average flock size increased during the study period. The highest stillbirth rates were found in the largest and smallest flocks. Early neonatal mortality rates (0-5 days of life) varied from year to year (minimum 2.2 %, maximum 3.2 %) and were invariably higher among triplets and quadruplets than among singletons and twins. Annual fluctuations were parallel within the various litter sizes. A significant overall decreasing trend was present within all litter sizes with the exception of singletons. Weather data for the prime lambing months (April and May) 2000-2010 indicated a relationship between low temperatures and high neonatal mortality rates. At the flock level, there was a significant positive correlation between stillbirths and early neonatal mortality rates (r = 0.13), between stillbirth rates in two consecutive years (r = 0.43) and between early neonatal mortality rates in two consecutive years (r = 0.40). The substantial increase in ovine stillbirth rate in recent years in Norway was to some extent related to a corresponding increase in the

  19. Reducing preoperative fasting time: A trend based on evidence

    OpenAIRE

    de Aguilar-Nascimento, José Eduardo; Dock-Nascimento, Diana Borges

    2010-01-01

    Preoperative fasting is mandatory before anesthesia to reduce the risk of aspiration. However, the prescribed 6-8 h of fasting is usually prolonged to 12-16 h for various reasons. Prolonged fasting triggers a metabolic response that precipitates gluconeogenesis and increases the organic response to trauma. Various randomized trials and meta-analyses have consistently shown that is safe to reduce the preoperative fasting time with a carbohydrate-rich drink up to 2 h before surgery. Benefits re...

  20. Mapping and Evaluation of NDVI Trends from Synthetic Time Series Obtained by Blending Landsat and MODIS Data around a Coalfield on the Loess Plateau

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    Kun Wang

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The increasingly intensive and extensive coal mining activities on the Loess Plateau pose a threat to the fragile local ecosystems. Quantifying the effects of coal mining activities on environmental conditions is of great interest for restoring and managing the local ecosystems and resources. This paper generates dense NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index time series between 2000 and 2011 at a spatial resolution of 30 m by blending Landsat and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data using the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM and further evaluates its capability for mapping vegetation trends around a typical coalfield on the Loss Plateau. Synthetic NDVI images were generated using (1 STARFM-generated NIR (near infrared and red band reflectance data (scheme 1 and (2 Landsat and MODIS NDVI images directly as inputs for STARFM (scheme 2. By comparing the synthetic NDVI images with the corresponding Landsat NDVI, we found that scheme 2 consistently generated better results (0.70 < R2 < 0.76 than scheme 1 (0.56 < R2 < 0.70 in this study area. Trend analysis was then performed with the synthetic dense NDVI time series and the annual maximum NDVI (NDVImax time series. The accuracy of these trends was evaluated by comparing to those from the corresponding MODIS time series, and it was concluded that both the trends from synthetic/MODIS NDVI dense time series and synthetic/MODIS NDVImax time series (2000–2011 were highly consistent. Compared to trends from MODIS time series, trends from synthetic time series are better able to capture fine scale vegetation changes. STARFM-generated synthetic NDVI time series could be used to quantify the effects of mining activities on vegetation, but the test areas should be selected with caution, as the trends derived from synthetic and MODIS time series may be significantly different in some areas.

  1. A Fast Density-Based Clustering Algorithm for Real-Time Internet of Things Stream

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ying Wah, Teh

    2014-01-01

    Data streams are continuously generated over time from Internet of Things (IoT) devices. The faster all of this data is analyzed, its hidden trends and patterns discovered, and new strategies created, the faster action can be taken, creating greater value for organizations. Density-based method is a prominent class in clustering data streams. It has the ability to detect arbitrary shape clusters, to handle outlier, and it does not need the number of clusters in advance. Therefore, density-based clustering algorithm is a proper choice for clustering IoT streams. Recently, several density-based algorithms have been proposed for clustering data streams. However, density-based clustering in limited time is still a challenging issue. In this paper, we propose a density-based clustering algorithm for IoT streams. The method has fast processing time to be applicable in real-time application of IoT devices. Experimental results show that the proposed approach obtains high quality results with low computation time on real and synthetic datasets. PMID:25110753

  2. Was everything bigger in Texas? Characterization and trends of a land-based recreational shark fishery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajemian, Matthew J.; Jose, Philip D.; Froeschke, John T.; Wildhaber, Mark L.; Stunz, Gregory W.

    2016-01-01

    Although current assessments of shark population trends involve both fishery-independent and fishery-dependent data, the latter are generally limited to commercial landings that may neglect nearshore coastal habitats. Texas has supported the longest organized land-based recreational shark fishery in the United States, yet no studies have used this “non-traditional” data source to characterize the catch composition or trends in this multidecadal fishery. We analyzed catch records from two distinct periods straddling heavy commercial exploitation of sharks in the Gulf of Mexico (historical period = 1973–1986; modern period = 2008–2015) to highlight and make available the current status and historical trends in Texas’ land-based shark fishery. Catch records describing large coastal species (>1,800 mm stretched total length [STL]) were examined using multivariate techniques to assess catch seasonality and potential temporal shifts in species composition. These fishery-dependent data revealed consistent seasonality that was independent of the data set examined, although distinct shark assemblages were evident between the two periods. Similarity percentage analysis suggested decreased contributions of Lemon Shark Negaprion brevirostris over time and a general shift toward the dominance of Bull Shark Carcharhinus leucas and Blacktip Shark C. limbatus. Comparisons of mean STL for species captured in historical and modern periods further identified significant decreases for both Bull Sharks and Lemon Sharks. Size structure analysis showed a distinct paucity of landed individuals over 2,000 mm STL in recent years. Although inherent biases in reporting and potential gear-related inconsistencies undoubtedly influenced this fishery-dependent data set, the patterns in our findings documented potential declines in the size and occurrence of select large coastal shark species off Texas, consistent with declines reported in the Gulf of Mexico. Future management efforts

  3. Tendência temporal de tabagismo em população urbana: um estudo de base populacional no Sul do Brasil Time trends in smoking in an urban population: a population-based study in Southern Brazil

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    Josiane L. Dias-Damé

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Avaliou-se a tendência temporal da prevalência de tabagismo conforme renda familiar, idade e sexo entre indivíduos com 20 anos ou mais residentes em Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil. Cinco inquéritos de base populacional utilizando-se de setores censitários foram realizados na cidade entre 2002-2010. Considerou-se tabagismo o consumo de um ou mais cigarros por dia há pelo menos um mês. A tendência temporal foi avaliada por meio do teste de qui-quadrado para tendência linear. Os cinco inquéritos realizados incluíram 15.136 indivíduos. Neste período, a prevalência total de tabagismo caiu de 28% (25,8-30,4 em 2002 para 21% (19,5-23,5 em 2010. Esta queda de 23% foi semelhante entre os sexos, mas muito diferente em relação à renda familiar. Quanto menor a renda familiar, maior a prevalência de tabagismo. Entre 2002-2010, a taxa de redução do tabagismo foi de 26% no menor quintil de renda e de 39% no maior. Apesar das reduções observadas, a prevalência de tabagismo ainda é elevada, indicando a necessidade de fortalecer medidas de controle voltadas principalmente aos indivíduos com menor renda.This study evaluated time trends in smoking prevalence according to gender and family income among individuals 20 years or older in Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. Five population-based surveys using census tracts were conducted in the city from 2002 to 2010. Smoking was defined as consumption of one or more cigarettes per day for at least one month. Time trend was assessed using the chi-square test for linear trend. 15,136 individuals were enrolled in these surveys. During this period, overall smoking prevalence decreased from 28% (25.8-30.4 in 2002 to 21% (19.5-23.5 in 2010. This 23% decline was similar in both genders, but differed significantly according to family income (smoking prevalence increased as income dropped. From 2002 to 2010, smoking decreased by 26% in the lowest income quintile and 39% in the highest. Despite

  4. Using a time-series statistical framework to quantify trends and abrupt change in US corn, soybean, and wheat yields from 1970-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J.; Ives, A. R.; Turner, M. G.; Kucharik, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    Previous studies have identified global agricultural regions where "stagnation" of long-term crop yield increases has occurred. These studies have used a variety of simple statistical methods that often ignore important aspects of time series regression modeling. These methods can lead to differing and contradictory results, which creates uncertainty regarding food security given rapid global population growth. Here, we present a new statistical framework incorporating time series-based algorithms into standard regression models to quantify spatiotemporal yield trends of US maize, soybean, and winter wheat from 1970-2016. Our primary goal was to quantify spatial differences in yield trends for these three crops using USDA county level data. This information was used to identify regions experiencing the largest changes in the rate of yield increases over time, and to determine whether abrupt shifts in the rate of yield increases have occurred. Although crop yields continue to increase in most maize-, soybean-, and winter wheat-growing areas, yield increases have stagnated in some key agricultural regions during the most recent 15 to 16 years: some maize-growing areas, except for the northern Great Plains, have shown a significant trend towards smaller annual yield increases for maize; soybean has maintained an consistent long-term yield gains in the Northern Great Plains, the Midwest, and southeast US, but has experienced a shift to smaller annual increases in other regions; winter wheat maintained a moderate annual increase in eastern South Dakota and eastern US locations, but showed a decline in the magnitude of annual increases across the central Great Plains and western US regions. Our results suggest that there were abrupt shifts in the rate of annual yield increases in a variety of US regions among the three crops. The framework presented here can be broadly applied to additional yield trend analyses for different crops and regions of the Earth.

  5. The Vegetation Trends and Drivers in Beijing-Tianjing Region from 1982 TO 2013 Based on Time Series Gimms NDVI3g

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, S.; Tian, H.; Wang, X.; Li, H.; He, Y.

    2018-04-01

    Vegetation plays a leading role in ecosystems. Plant communities are the main components of ecosystems. Green plants in ecosystems are the primary producers, and they provide the living organic matter for the survival of other organisms. The dynamics of most landscapes are driven by both natural processes and human activities. In this study, the growing season GIMMS NDVI3g and climatic data were used to analyse the vegetation trends and drivers in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1982 to 2013. Result shows that, the vegetation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows overall restoration and partial degradation trend. The significant restoration region accounts for 61.5 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, while the significant degradation region accounts for 2.1 %. The dominant climatic factor for time series NDVI were analyzed using the multi-linear regression model. Vegetation growth in 17.9 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is dominated by temperature, 35.5 % is dominated by precipitation, and 11.68 % is dominated by solar radiance. Human activities play important role for vegetation restoration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, where the large scale forest restoration programs are the main human activities, such as the three-north shelterbelt construction project, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei sandstorm source control project and grain for green projects.

  6. Efficient constraint-based Sequential Pattern Mining (SPM algorithm to understand customers’ buying behaviour from time stamp-based sequence dataset

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niti Ashish Kumar Desai

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Business Strategies are formulated based on an understanding of customer needs. This requires development of a strategy to understand customer behaviour and buying patterns, both current and future. This involves understanding, first how an organization currently understands customer needs and second predicting future trends to drive growth. This article focuses on purchase trend of customer, where timing of purchase is more important than association of item to be purchased, and which can be found out with Sequential Pattern Mining (SPM methods. Conventional SPM algorithms worked purely on frequency identifying patterns that were more frequent but suffering from challenges like generation of huge number of uninteresting patterns, lack of user’s interested patterns, rare item problem, etc. Article attempts a solution through development of a SPM algorithm based on various constraints like Gap, Compactness, Item, Recency, Profitability and Length along with Frequency constraint. Incorporation of six additional constraints is as well to ensure that all patterns are recently active (Recency, active for certain time span (Compactness, profitable and indicative of next timeline for purchase (Length―Item―Gap. The article also attempts to throw light on how proposed Constraint-based Prefix Span algorithm is helpful to understand buying behaviour of customer which is in formative stage.

  7. Investigating the impact of the English health inequalities strategy: time trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barr, Ben; Higgerson, James; Whitehead, Margaret

    2017-07-26

    Objective  To investigate whether the English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical health inequalities, compared with trends before and after the strategy. Design  Time trend analysis. Setting  Two groups of lower tier local authorities in England. The most deprived, bottom fifth and the rest of England. Intervention  The English health inequalities strategy-a cross government strategy implemented between 1997 and 2010 to reduce health inequalities in England. Trends in geographical health inequalities were assessed before (1983-2003), during (2004-12), and after (2013-15) the strategy using segmented linear regression. Main outcome measure  Geographical health inequalities measured as the relative and absolute differences in male and female life expectancy at birth between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country. Results  Before the strategy the gap in male and female life expectancy between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country increased at a rate of 0.57 months each year (95% confidence interval 0.40 to 0.74 months) and 0.30 months each year (0.12 to 0.48 months). During the strategy period this trend reversed and the gap in life expectancy for men reduced by 0.91 months each year (0.54 to 1.27 months) and for women by 0.50 months each year (0.15 to 0.86 months). Since the end of the strategy period the inequality gap has increased again at a rate of 0.68 months each year (-0.20 to 1.56 months) for men and 0.31 months each year (-0.26 to 0.88) for women. By 2012 the gap in male life expectancy was 1.2 years smaller (95% confidence interval 0.8 to 1.5 years smaller) and the gap in female life expectancy was 0.6 years smaller (0.3 to 1.0 years smaller) than it would have been if the trends in inequalities before the strategy had continued. Conclusion  The English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical inequalities

  8. Cone-Beam Computed Tomography–Guided Positioning of Laryngeal Cancer Patients with Large Interfraction Time Trends in Setup and Nonrigid Anatomy Variations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gangsaas, Anne; Astreinidou, Eleftheria; Quint, Sandra; Levendag, Peter C.; Heijmen, Ben

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate interfraction setup variations of the primary tumor, elective nodes, and vertebrae in laryngeal cancer patients and to validate protocols for cone beam computed tomography (CBCT)-guided correction. Methods and Materials: For 30 patients, CBCT-measured displacements in fractionated treatments were used to investigate population setup errors and to simulate residual setup errors for the no action level (NAL) offline protocol, the extended NAL (eNAL) protocol, and daily CBCT acquisition with online analysis and repositioning. Results: Without corrections, 12 of 26 patients treated with radical radiation therapy would have experienced a gradual change (time trend) in primary tumor setup ≥4 mm in the craniocaudal (CC) direction during the fractionated treatment (11/12 in caudal direction, maximum 11 mm). Due to these trends, correction of primary tumor displacements with NAL resulted in large residual CC errors (required margin 6.7 mm). With the weekly correction vector adjustments in eNAL, the trends could be largely compensated (CC margin 3.5 mm). Correlation between movements of the primary and nodal clinical target volumes (CTVs) in the CC direction was poor (r 2 =0.15). Therefore, even with online setup corrections of the primary CTV, the required CC margin for the nodal CTV was as large as 6.8 mm. Also for the vertebrae, large time trends were observed for some patients. Because of poor CC correlation (r 2 =0.19) between displacements of the primary CTV and the vertebrae, even with daily online repositioning of the vertebrae, the required CC margin around the primary CTV was 6.9 mm. Conclusions: Laryngeal cancer patients showed substantial interfraction setup variations, including large time trends, and poor CC correlation between primary tumor displacements and motion of the nodes and vertebrae (internal tumor motion). These trends and nonrigid anatomy variations have to be considered in the choice of setup verification protocol and

  9. Time trends of esophageal and gastric cancer mortality in China, 1991?2009: an age-period-cohort analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Mengmeng; Wan, Xia; Wang, Yanhong; Sun, Yuanyuan; Yang, Gonghuan; Wang, Li

    2017-01-01

    Esophageal and gastric cancers share some risk factors. This study aimed to compare the long-term trends in mortality rates of esophageal and gastric cancers in China to provide evidence for cancer prevention and control. Mortality data were derived from 103 continuous points of the Disease Surveillance Points system during 1991?2009, stratified by gender and urban-rural locations. Age-period-cohort models were used to disentangle the time trends of esophageal and gastric cancer mortality. Th...

  10. Time trends and changes in the distribution of malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon Region, 2004-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isac da SF Lima

    Full Text Available Recent efforts to reduce malaria incidence have had some successes. Nevertheless, malaria persists as a significant public health problem in the Brazilian Amazon. The objective of this study was to describe changes in malaria case characteristics and to identify trends in malaria incidence in the Brazilian Amazon. This study used data from the Malaria Epidemiological Surveillance and Case Notification Information System from 2004 to 2013. The annual parasite incidence (API was calculated and joinpoint regression was used to assess the trends in API over time. There was a sharp increase in API in the state of Acre, followed by two periods of decrease. Pará also presented inconsistent decreases over the study period. Amapá, Amazonas, Rondônia, and Roraima showed statistically significant decreases over the period. The sharpest decrease occurred in Rondônia, with a reduction of 21.7% in the average annual percent change (AAPC (AAPC: -21.7%; 95% confidence interval: -25.4%, -17.8%; p < 0.05. This panorama of malaria incidence highlights the importance of integrating evidence-based malaria surveillance and control. Malaria is highly preventable, and eliminating its transmission should be a goal in coming decades.

  11. Potentially avoidable hospitalizations in five European countries in 2009 and time trends from 2002 to 2009 based on administrative data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thygesen, Lau C; Christiansen, Terkel; Garcia-Armesto, Sandra

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Potentially avoidable hospitalizations in chronic conditions are used to evaluate health-care performance. However, evidence comparing different countries at small geographical areas is still scarce. The aim of the present study is to describe and discuss differences in rates and time......-trends across health-care areas from five European countries. METHODS: Observational, ecological study, on virtually all discharges produced in five European countries between 2002 and 2009. Potentially avoidable hospitalizations were operationally defined as a joint indicator composed of six chronic conditions....... Episodes flagged as potentially avoidable were allocated to 913 geographical health-care areas. Age-sex standardized rates and standardized hospitalization ratios, as well as several statistics of variation, were estimated. RESULTS: Four hundred sixty-two thousand seven hundred and ninety-two episodes were...

  12. Analysis of trends of low flow in river stations in eastern Slovakia

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    Martina Zeleňáková

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The availability of using hypothesis test techniques to identify the long-term trends of hydrological time series is investigated in this study. The aim is to analyse trends of low flows at streams in eastern Slovakia, namely Poprad, Hornád, Bodva, Bodrog river basins. The article presents a methodology for prediction of hydrological drought based on statistical testing of low stream flows by non-parametric statistical test. The main objective is to identify low flow trends in the selected 63 river stations in eastern Slovakia. The stations with human impacts are also evaluated. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test has been used to detect trends in hydrological time series. Statistically significant trends have been determined from the trend lines for the whole territory of eastern Slovakia. The results indicate that the observed changes in Slovakian river basins do not have a clearly defined trend.

  13. Characterization and adequacy of the use of radiotherapy and its trend in time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palacios Eito, Amalia; Cabezas, Sonia García; Font Ugalde, Pilar; Rivin del Campo, Eleonor; Otero Romero, Ana; Mar Pérez Martín, María del; Roldán Arjona, Juan Manuel; Martínez Paredes, María

    2013-01-01

    Background and purpose: Characterization of radiotherapy activity and its trend over time. Gathering of parameters for future planning of our resources, applicable to similar population areas. Performing a clinical audit of appropriate use of radiotherapy. Material and methods: Analysis of 9782 patients treated between 1998 and 2008. Descriptive statistics of pathologies and social/demographic characteristics. Intention of treatment. The rate of radiotherapy utilization was estimated and compared with those considered optimal. Rate of reirradiation. Results: The average global rate of radiotherapy utilization for the period was 32.7%. It increased by 23% between 1998 and 2008, while the population of the area rose by 1.04%, equaling an average 1.13 irradiations/1000 inhabitants/year. Radiation treatment has increased by 13.6, 2.3, 1.6 and 1.06 times in patients with prostate, breast, rectal and lung cancer, respectively. Eight percent of radiotherapy treatments involve concurrent chemotherapy. The proportion of treatments with palliative intent was 18.2%. The overall underutilization of radiation therapy in our environment was an estimated 13.4%. Conclusions: The grade of adequacy of radiation rates in relation with scientific evidence was globally considered suboptimal, especially in lung cancer. There was an upward trend of irradiation in breast and prostate cancer, tending toward rates considered optimal

  14. Tuberculosis in Mexico and the USA, Comparison of Trends Over Time 1990-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Garduño, Eduardo; Mendoza-Damián, Fabiola; Garduño-Alanís, Adriana; Ayón-Garibaldo, Salvador

    2015-07-01

    The aim was to compare tuberculosis trends in Mexico and United States and to evaluate Mexican diagnostic methods and contact investigation. Retrospective comparative study of tuberculosis cases and incidence rates between both countries (1990-2010). Diagnostic methods and contact investigations were also evaluated for Mexico. Estimates were obtained from official websites. In Mexico, no clear trend was found over time for cases. Pulmonary (PTB) and all forms of tuberculosis (AFTB) incidence decreased 2.0% annually. There was a negative correlation between the mean contacts examined per case and AFTB incidence (r(2)=-0.44, p=0.01) with a 33% reduction in AFTB incidence. In United States, PTB and AFTB cases have been decreasing 6.0% and 5.6% annually, respectively. The incidence decreased 7.3% and 6.8%, respectively. The incidence of tuberculosis in Mexico is decreasing slightly over time at 2% annually. In the United States, cases and incidence rates have been decreasing at a higher rate (5% to 7% annually). The inverse association between number of contacts examined per state and incidence rates in Mexico underscore the importance of reinforcing and improving contact investigations with the likely translation of a decrease of TB incidence at a higher rate.

  15. Complementary feeding patterns in the first year of life in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: time trends from 1998 to 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Alves de Oliveira

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to analyze time trends in complementary feeding practices among children under one year of age in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from 1998 to 2008. Based on comparable questions on food consumption in five surveys conducted in representative randomized samples of children in 1998 (n = 3,762, 2000 (n = 3,670, 2003 (n = 4,305, 2006 (n = 3,686, and 2008 (n = 2,621, 16 complementary feeding indicators were constructed. The percentage frequency of all indicators was estimated for each year of the study. Linear trend analyses were also conducted by means of multivariate regression models. All indicators of early complementary feeding decreased from 1998 to 2008. In the 6-11.9 month age group, there was a significant downward trend in the proportion of children receiving food with adequate consistency for their age, consumption of iron-rich foods, and overall adequacy of the diet. A significant upward trend in fruit consumption was observed. There was a decrease in the early complementary feeding, and generally a worsening of complementary feeding practices in children aged 6-11.9 months in Rio de Janeiro during the period studied.

  16. Investigating the usefulness of a cluster-based trend analysis to detect visual field progression in patients with open-angle glaucoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aoki, Shuichiro; Murata, Hiroshi; Fujino, Yuri; Matsuura, Masato; Miki, Atsuya; Tanito, Masaki; Mizoue, Shiro; Mori, Kazuhiko; Suzuki, Katsuyoshi; Yamashita, Takehiro; Kashiwagi, Kenji; Hirasawa, Kazunori; Shoji, Nobuyuki; Asaoka, Ryo

    2017-12-01

    To investigate the usefulness of the Octopus (Haag-Streit) EyeSuite's cluster trend analysis in glaucoma. Ten visual fields (VFs) with the Humphrey Field Analyzer (Carl Zeiss Meditec), spanning 7.7 years on average were obtained from 728 eyes of 475 primary open angle glaucoma patients. Mean total deviation (mTD) trend analysis and EyeSuite's cluster trend analysis were performed on various series of VFs (from 1st to 10th: VF1-10 to 6th to 10th: VF6-10). The results of the cluster-based trend analysis, based on different lengths of VF series, were compared against mTD trend analysis. Cluster-based trend analysis and mTD trend analysis results were significantly associated in all clusters and with all lengths of VF series. Between 21.2% and 45.9% (depending on VF series length and location) of clusters were deemed to progress when the mTD trend analysis suggested no progression. On the other hand, 4.8% of eyes were observed to progress using the mTD trend analysis when cluster trend analysis suggested no progression in any two (or more) clusters. Whole field trend analysis can miss local VF progression. Cluster trend analysis appears as robust as mTD trend analysis and useful to assess both sectorial and whole field progression. Cluster-based trend analyses, in particular the definition of two or more progressing cluster, may help clinicians to detect glaucomatous progression in a timelier manner than using a whole field trend analysis, without significantly compromising specificity. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  17. Phase synchronization based minimum spanning trees for analysis of financial time series with nonlinear correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radhakrishnan, Srinivasan; Duvvuru, Arjun; Sultornsanee, Sivarit; Kamarthi, Sagar

    2016-02-01

    The cross correlation coefficient has been widely applied in financial time series analysis, in specific, for understanding chaotic behaviour in terms of stock price and index movements during crisis periods. To better understand time series correlation dynamics, the cross correlation matrices are represented as networks, in which a node stands for an individual time series and a link indicates cross correlation between a pair of nodes. These networks are converted into simpler trees using different schemes. In this context, Minimum Spanning Trees (MST) are the most favoured tree structures because of their ability to preserve all the nodes and thereby retain essential information imbued in the network. Although cross correlations underlying MSTs capture essential information, they do not faithfully capture dynamic behaviour embedded in the time series data of financial systems because cross correlation is a reliable measure only if the relationship between the time series is linear. To address the issue, this work investigates a new measure called phase synchronization (PS) for establishing correlations among different time series which relate to one another, linearly or nonlinearly. In this approach the strength of a link between a pair of time series (nodes) is determined by the level of phase synchronization between them. We compare the performance of phase synchronization based MST with cross correlation based MST along selected network measures across temporal frame that includes economically good and crisis periods. We observe agreement in the directionality of the results across these two methods. They show similar trends, upward or downward, when comparing selected network measures. Though both the methods give similar trends, the phase synchronization based MST is a more reliable representation of the dynamic behaviour of financial systems than the cross correlation based MST because of the former's ability to quantify nonlinear relationships among time

  18. THE EFFECT OF DECOMPOSITION METHOD AS DATA PREPROCESSING ON NEURAL NETWORKS MODEL FOR FORECASTING TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subanar Subanar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, one of the central topics for the neural networks (NN community is the issue of data preprocessing on the use of NN. In this paper, we will investigate this topic particularly on the effect of Decomposition method as data processing and the use of NN for modeling effectively time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. Limited empirical studies on seasonal time series forecasting with neural networks show that some find neural networks are able to model seasonality directly and prior deseasonalization is not necessary, and others conclude just the opposite. In this research, we study particularly on the effectiveness of data preprocessing, including detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method on NN modeling and forecasting performance. We use two kinds of data, simulation and real data. Simulation data are examined on multiplicative of trend and seasonality patterns. The results are compared to those obtained from the classical time series model. Our result shows that a combination of detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method is the effective data preprocessing on the use of NN for forecasting trend and seasonal time series.

  19. Time-trends in assisted and unassisted suicides completed with different methods: Swiss National Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steck, Nicole; Zwahlen, Marcel; Egger, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    The number of suicides assisted by right-to-die associations has increased in recent years in Switzerland. The aim of our study was to compare time trends in rates of assisted and unassisted suicide from 1991-2008. The Swiss National Cohort is a longitudinal study of mortality in the Swiss population; based on linkage of census data with mortality records up to 2008. The Federal Statistical Office coded suspected assisted suicides from 1998 onwards; and from 2003 onwards right-to-die associations reported the suicides they assisted. We used Poisson regression to analyse trends in rates of suicide per 100'000 person-years, by gender and age groups (15-34, 35-64, 65-94 years). A total of 7'940'297 individuals and 24'842 suicides were included. In women, rates changed little in the younger age groups but increased in 65-94-year-olds, due to an increase in suicide by poisoning (from 5.1 to 17.2 per 100'000; p suicides by poisoning was also observed in older men (from 8.6 to 18.2; psuicides by poisoning were assisted. In men, suicide rates declined in all age groups, driven by declines in suicide with firearms. Research is needed to gain a better understanding of the reasons for the tripling of assisted suicide rates in older women, and the doubling of rates in older men, of attitudes and vulnerabilities of those choosing assisted suicide, and of access to palliative care. Rates of assisted suicide should be monitored; including data on patient characteristics and underlying comorbidities.

  20. Cycling in São Paulo, Brazil (1997–2012: Correlates, time trends and health consequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thiago Hérick Sá

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the study was to describe cyclists and cycling trips, and to explore correlates, time trends and health consequences of cycling in São Paulo, Brazil from 1997 to 2012. Cross-sectional analysis using repeated São Paulo Household Travel Surveys (HTS. At all time periods cycling was a minority travel mode in São Paulo (1174 people with cycling trips out of 214,719 people. Poisson regressions for individual correlates were estimated using the entire 2012 HTS sample. Men were six times more likely to cycle than women. We found rates of bicycle use rising over time among the richest quartile but total cycling rates dropped from 1997 to 2012 due to decreasing rates among the poor. Harms from air pollution would negate benefits from physical activity through cycling only at 1997 air pollution levels and at very high cycling levels (≥9 h of cycling per day. Exposure-based road injury risk decreased between 2007 and 2012, from 0.76 to 0.56 cyclist deaths per 1000 person-hours travelled. Policies to reduce spatial segregation, measures to tackle air pollution, improvements in dedicated cycling infrastructure, and integrating the bicycle with the public transport system in neighborhoods of all income levels could make cycling safer and prevent more individuals from abandoning the cycling mode in São Paulo.

  1. Beech wood export and import trends in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ranković Nenad

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available By the establishment and analysis of the model of beech wood export and export trends in Serbia (by quantity and value, for the period 1988-2002 the regularities of the changes of their magnitude in time were defined. On this basis, the relations of import and export trends were analyzed. Based on the study elements, the potentials of beech sawlog and beech sawnwood export, as well as the potential economic effects, were pointed out.

  2. Reference population for international comparisons and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery proportions in three countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morken, N.H.; Vogel, I.; Kallen, K.

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: International comparison and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery rates is complex. New techniques that could facilitate interpretation of such rates are needed. METHODS: We studied all live births and stillbirths (>or= 28 weeks gestation) registered in the medical birth...

  3. River flood seasonality in the Northeast United States and trends in annual timing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    The New England and Mid-Atlantic regions of the Northeast United States have experienced climate-associated increases in both the magnitude and frequency of floods. However, a detailed understanding of flood seasonality across these regions, and how flood seasonality may have changed over the instrumental record, has not been established. The annual timing of river floods reflects the flood-generating mechanisms operating in a basin and many aquatic and riparian organisms are adapted to flood seasonality, as are human uses of river channels and floodplains. Changes in flood seasonality may indicate changes in flood-generating mechanisms, and their interactions, with important implications for habitats, floodplain infrastructure, and human communities. For example, changes in spring or fall flood timing may negatively or positively affect a vulnerable life stage for a migratory fish (e.g., egg setting) depending on whether floods occur more frequently before or after the life history event. In this study I apply an objective, probabilistic method for identifying flood seasons at a monthly resolution for 90 climate-sensitive watersheds in New England and the Mid-Atlantic (Hydrologic Unit Codes 01 and 02). Historical trends in flood timing during the year are also investigated. The analyses are based on partial duration flood series that are an average of 85 years long. The seasonality of flooding in these regions, and any historical changes, are considered in the context of other ongoing or expected phenological changes in the Northeast U.S. environment that affect flood generation—e.g., the timing of leaf-off/leaf-out for deciduous plants. How these factors interact will affect whether and how flood magnitudes and frequencies change in the future and associated impacts.

  4. Real-time pricing strategy of micro-grid energy centre considering price-based demand response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zhiheng; Zhang, Yongjun; Wang, Gan

    2017-07-01

    With the development of energy conversion technology such as power to gas (P2G), fuel cell and so on, the coupling between energy sources becomes more and more closely. Centralized dispatch among electricity, natural gas and heat will become a trend. With the goal of maximizing the system revenue, this paper establishes the model of micro-grid energy centre based on energy hub. According to the proposed model, the real-time pricing strategy taking into account price-based demand response of load is developed. And the influence of real-time pricing strategy on the peak load shifting is discussed. In addition, the impact of wind power predicted inaccuracy on real-time pricing strategy is analysed.

  5. Analysis of trend in temperature and rainfall time series of an Indian arid region: comparative evaluation of salient techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machiwal, Deepesh; Gupta, Ankit; Jha, Madan Kumar; Kamble, Trupti

    2018-04-01

    This study investigated trends in 35 years (1979-2013) temperature (maximum, Tmax and minimum, Tmin) and rainfall at annual and seasonal (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter) scales for 31 grid points in a coastal arid region of India. Box-whisker plots of annual temperature and rainfall time series depict systematic spatial gradients. Trends were examined by applying eight tests, such as Kendall rank correlation (KRC), Spearman rank order correlation (SROC), Mann-Kendall (MK), four modified MK tests, and innovative trend analysis (ITA). Trend magnitudes were quantified by Sen's slope estimator, and a new method was adopted to assess the significance of linear trends in MK-test statistics. It was found that the significant serial correlation is prominent in the annual and post-monsoon Tmax and Tmin, and pre-monsoon Tmin. The KRC and MK tests yielded similar results in close resemblance with the SROC test. The performance of two modified MK tests considering variance-correction approaches was found superior to the KRC, MK, modified MK with pre-whitening, and ITA tests. The performance of original MK test is poor due to the presence of serial correlation, whereas the ITA method is over-sensitive in identifying trends. Significantly increasing trends are more prominent in Tmin than Tmax. Further, both the annual and monsoon rainfall time series have a significantly increasing trend of 9 mm year-1. The sequential significance of linear trend in MK test-statistics is very strong (R 2 ≥ 0.90) in the annual and pre-monsoon Tmin (90% grid points), and strong (R 2 ≥ 0.75) in monsoon Tmax (68% grid points), monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter Tmin (respectively 65, 55, and 48% grid points), as well as in the annual and monsoon rainfalls (respectively 68 and 61% grid points). Finally, this study recommends use of variance-corrected MK test for the precise identification of trends. It is emphasized that the rising Tmax may hamper crop growth due to enhanced

  6. Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

    2018-03-01

    Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

  7. Childhood cancer survival in Switzerland (1976-2013): Time-trends and predictors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schindler, Matthias; Belle, Fabiën N; Grotzer, Michael A; von der Weid, Nicolas X; Kuehni, Claudia E

    2017-01-01

    Population-based studies on childhood cancer survival are key to monitor progress against cancer and to detect potential differences between regions and other subgroups in the population. We investigated time trends and factors associated with childhood cancer survival on a national level in Switzerland, from 1976 to 2013. We extracted data from the population-based Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry of 5,776 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer from 1985 to 2014 in Switzerland. We calculated age-adjusted 5-year survival, defined the annual reduction in risk of death (ARR), and explored associations of survival with clinical and demographic factors. Overall, 5-year survival improved significantly, from 64% in 1976-1983 to 88% in 2004-2013. ARR over the whole period was 4% for all diagnostic groups, greatest for Hodgkin lymphomas (8%), ependymomas (6%), Burkitt's lymphomas (6%) and germ cell tumours (6%). Children treated in hospitals without specialised paediatric cancer centre for leukaemia (HR 12.9), lymphoma (HR 5.0) and neuroblastoma (HR 3.7) were at higher risk of death. In French-speaking Switzerland, risk of death was lower for lymphoma (HR 0.6), CNS tumours (HR 0.7) and neuroblastoma (HR 0.5). Children with migration background had a higher risk of death from all tumours except bone tumours. Childhood cancer survival significantly improved from 1976 to 2013, but there is room for further improvement. Survival rates varied by type of clinical treatment, language region and nationality. All paediatric cancer patients should be referred to a specialised paediatric cancer centre. Further research is needed to intervene and completely eliminate inequalities in survival. © 2016 UICC.

  8. NEW TRENDS IN MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Micu Alexandra

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Over the last years, management have been facing a series of profound changes in trends coming and going, one being more productive than other or causing more damage when applied improperly. The paper focuses on the last trends in management that have evolved in the last years, trends that have been marked by a Darwinian business environment and made more unforgiving since the financial crisis and the innovations in technology, social media and management philosophy. The paper will present and describe the most important new trends in management that enabled select organisations to remain competitive and overcome the multiple difficulties caused by the ever-changing economy based on a qualitative research. From the “outside innovation” that is considered always to be the key in overcoming the obstacles facing an organization, to the new buzzword “design”, that is said to ensure the organization long-term competitive advantage, the paper will analyse new trends and also will be describing the impact they have on the welfare of the organization. The research has also shown that managers tend to put a greater accent on searching for innovation rather than efficiency in order to ensure a continuous progress in the organization and to maintain business sustainability. The paper will not be comparing the efficiency of these different philosophies, or the results they generated, as time will still be the ultimate judge.

  9. Trends in leisure time physical activity, smoking, body mass index and alcohol consumption in Danish adults with and without diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molsted, Stig; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Snorgaard, Ole

    2014-01-01

    AIMS: In recent decades there has been an increased focus on non-pharmacological treatment of diabetes. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in leisure time physical activity (PA), smoking, body mass index (BMI), and alcohol consumption reported in 2000, 2005 and 2010 by Danish subjects......-sectional analyses from 2000, 2005 and 2010. RESULTS: In participants with diabetes, leisure time PA levels increased from 2000 to 2010: The percentage of those that were physically active increased from 53.5% to 78.2% (p... in participants with diabetes compared to participants without diabetes throughout the study. CONCLUSIONS: The percentage of physically active Danish participants older than 45 years with diabetes increased from 2000 to 2010, and the most beneficial trends in life style were observed among the women. These trends...

  10. Trends of Sustainable Residential Architecture

    OpenAIRE

    Narvydas, A

    2014-01-01

    The article is based on Master’s research conducted during Scottish Housing Expo 2010. The aim of the research was to determine the prevailing trends in sustainable residential architecture. Each trend can be described by features detected during visual and technical observation of project data. Based on that architects may predict possible problems related to a specific trend.

  11. Time trends in the thesis work by post-graduate students of Community Medicine: A record based descriptive study of 40 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M M Nagargoje

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Thesis work conducted by post-graduate students of Community Medicine is critically appraised by not only their examiners but also by many other public health experts and researchers. Issues related to the repetition of work and quality of thesis work is raised by various authors. Objective: To assess the time trend in the thesis work done by post-graduate students of Community Medicine. Material and methods: This is a record based descriptive observational study conducted in the department of Community Medicine of S. N. Medical College, Agra (Uttar Pradesh. Data from all the 66 theses which were submitted by the Post Graduate students of our department till date was collected and assessed systematically. Result: Most preferred areas of research were MCH/Family Planning (28.79% and Programme/Service evaluation (22.73%. 77.27% of theses were community based, 36.37% were done exclusively in a rural area, 24.24% of theses had children/adolescent as their study subjects and 28.79% were conducted exclusively among females. A knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP or Knowledge, attitude, behavior and practice (KABP study was part of many theses but exclusive KAP/KABP study was done only in 12.12% of theses. A purposive or convenience sampling was done in only 18.33% of theses, 86.67% were cross-sectional in design and median sample size was 450 participants per thesis. In comparison to the theses done upto the year 2000, theses thereafter were more often based in an urban area and less often done in an exclusive rural area (p=0.0003 and all KAP/KABP studies were done after the year 2000 (p=0.004. Conclusion: There is no repetition or excessive use of KAP/KABP studies in the theses done by post-graduate students of the department of Community Medicine, S. N. Medical College, Agra

  12. Infodemiology of status epilepticus: A systematic validation of the Google Trends-based search queries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi; Bacigaluppi, Susanna; Robba, Chiara; Nardone, Raffaele; Trinka, Eugen; Brigo, Francesco

    2016-02-01

    People increasingly use Google looking for health-related information. We previously demonstrated that in English-speaking countries most people use this search engine to obtain information on status epilepticus (SE) definition, types/subtypes, and treatment. Now, we aimed at providing a quantitative analysis of SE-related web queries. This analysis represents an advancement, with respect to what was already previously discussed, in that the Google Trends (GT) algorithm has been further refined and correlational analyses have been carried out to validate the GT-based query volumes. Google Trends-based SE-related query volumes were well correlated with information concerning causes and pharmacological and nonpharmacological treatments. Google Trends can provide both researchers and clinicians with data on realities and contexts that are generally overlooked and underexplored by classic epidemiology. In this way, GT can foster new epidemiological studies in the field and can complement traditional epidemiological tools. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Google Trends: Ready for real-time suicide prevention or just a Zeta-Jones effect? An exploratory study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fond, Guillaume; Gaman, Alexandru; Brunel, Lore; Haffen, Emmanuel; Llorca, Pierre-Michel

    2015-08-30

    Two studies have shown that increasing the consultation of the word "suicide" in the Google search engine was associated with a subsequent increase in the prevalence of suicide attempts. The main goal of this article was to explore the trends generated by a key-word search associated with suicide, depression and bipolarity in an attempt to identify general trends (disorders epidemics in the population/"real events" vs newsworthy advertisement/"media event"). Based on previous studies, the frequency of the search words "how to suicide" and "commit suicide" were analyzed for suicide, as well as "depression" (for depressive disorders) and "bipolar disorder". Together, these analyses suggest that the search for the words "how to suicide" or "commit suicide" on the Google search engine may be a good indicator for suicide prevention policies. However, the tool is not developed enough to date to be used as a real time dynamic indicator of suicide epidemics. The frequency of the search for the word "suicide" was associated with those for "depression" but not for "bipolar disorder", but searches for psychiatric conditions seem to be influenced by media events more than by real events in the general population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. [Time trend study of firearm mortality in Argentina, 1980-2012].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spinelli, Hugo; Santoro, Adrián; Guevel, Carlos; Alazraqui, Marcio

    2015-06-01

    This work analyzes the impact of firearm mortality between 1980 and 2012 in Argentina. For this purpose a descriptive epidemiological time trend study was carried out including the following variables: sex, age group, intentionality and jurisdiction. Data was obtained from the Office of Health Statistics and Information of the Argentine Ministry of Health. A total of 87,671 deaths due to firearms were discovered, of which 85.7% occurred in men. The highest mortality rate due to firearms corresponded to the year 2002, reaching 21.2 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. The age group concentrating the largest number of deaths due to firearms was that of 20-29 years, accounting for 25.6% of all deaths. The highest adjusted rates corresponded to the years 2000-2002, with values of 10.0 to 11.6 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. This time period coincides with the institutional-economic crisis the country experienced. The province of Buenos Aires was the place of residence of 49.1% of the deceased. In the discussion, political-economic and ideological-cultural dimensions of the relations among firearms, violence, science and society are considered.

  15. Portrayal of tobacco use in prime-time TV dramas: trends and associations with adult cigarette consumption--USA, 1955-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, Patrick E; Romer, Daniel

    2015-05-01

    Although portrayal of television (TV) and movie tobacco use has been linked with initiation of cigarette smoking in adolescents, its association with smoking in adults has not been assessed. Therefore, we examined long-term and annual changes in tobacco portrayal in popular US TV dramas and their associations with comparable trends in national adult cigarette consumption. Tobacco use in 1838 h of popular US TV dramas was coded from 1955-2010. The long-term trend and annual deviations from trend were studied in relation to comparable trends in adult per capita cigarette consumption using correlational and time-series methods that controlled for other potential predictors. TV tobacco portrayal has trended downward since 1955 in line with the historical trend in cigarette consumption. Controlling for changes in cigarette prices and other factors, annual changes of one tobacco instance per episode hour across 2 years of programming were associated with annual change of 38.5 cigarettes per US adult. The decline in TV tobacco portrayal was associated with nearly half the effect of increases in cigarette prices over the study period. The correlation between tobacco portrayal in TV dramas and adult cigarette consumption is consistent with well-established effects of exposure to tobacco cues that create craving for cigarettes in adult smokers. Although tobacco use in TV dramas along with movies has declined over time, portrayal of smoking on screen media should be a focus for future adult tobacco control research and policy. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  16. Model-Based Attribution of High-Resolution Streamflow Trends in Two Alpine Basins of Western Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christoph Kormann

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Several trend studies have shown that hydrological conditions are changing considerably in the Alpine region. However, the reasons for these changes are only partially understood and trend analyses alone are not able to shed much light. Hydrological modelling is one possible way to identify the trend drivers, i.e., to attribute the detected streamflow trends, given that the model captures all important processes causing the trends. We modelled the hydrological conditions for two alpine catchments in western Austria (a large, mostly lower-altitude catchment with wide valley plains and a nested high-altitude, glaciated headwater catchment with the distributed, physically-oriented WaSiM-ETH model, which includes a dynamical glacier module. The model was calibrated in a transient mode, i.e., not only on several standard goodness measures and glacier extents, but also in such a way that the simulated streamflow trends fit with the observed ones during the investigation period 1980 to 2007. With this approach, it was possible to separate streamflow components, identify the trends of flow components, and study their relation to trends in atmospheric variables. In addition to trends in annual averages, highly resolved trends for each Julian day were derived, since they proved powerful in an earlier, data-based attribution study. We were able to show that annual and highly resolved trends can be modelled sufficiently well. The results provide a holistic, year-round picture of the drivers of alpine streamflow changes: Higher-altitude catchments are strongly affected by earlier firn melt and snowmelt in spring and increased ice melt throughout the ablation season. Changes in lower-altitude areas are mostly caused by earlier and lower snowmelt volumes. All highly resolved trends in streamflow and its components show an explicit similarity to the local temperature trends. Finally, results indicate that evapotranspiration has been increasing in the lower

  17. Global ocean carbon uptake: magnitude, variability and trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Wanninkhof

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The globally integrated sea–air anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2 flux from 1990 to 2009 is determined from models and data-based approaches as part of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP project. Numerical methods include ocean inverse models, atmospheric inverse models, and ocean general circulation models with parameterized biogeochemistry (OBGCMs. The median value of different approaches shows good agreement in average uptake. The best estimate of anthropogenic CO2 uptake for the time period based on a compilation of approaches is −2.0 Pg C yr−1. The interannual variability in the sea–air flux is largely driven by large-scale climate re-organizations and is estimated at 0.2 Pg C yr−1 for the two decades with some systematic differences between approaches. The largest differences between approaches are seen in the decadal trends. The trends range from −0.13 (Pg C yr−1 decade−1 to −0.50 (Pg C yr−1 decade−1 for the two decades under investigation. The OBGCMs and the data-based sea–air CO2 flux estimates show appreciably smaller decadal trends than estimates based on changes in carbon inventory suggesting that methods capable of resolving shorter timescales are showing a slowing of the rate of ocean CO2 uptake. RECCAP model outputs for five decades show similar differences in trends between approaches.

  18. Statistical trend analysis methods for temporal phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lehtinen, E.; Pulkkinen, U. [VTT Automation, (Finland); Poern, K. [Poern Consulting, Nykoeping (Sweden)

    1997-04-01

    We consider point events occurring in a random way in time. In many applications the pattern of occurrence is of intrinsic interest as indicating a trend or some other systematic feature in the rate of occurrence. The purpose of this report is to survey briefly different statistical trend analysis methods and illustrate their applicability to temporal phenomena in particular. The trend testing of point events is usually seen as the testing of the hypotheses concerning the intensity of the occurrence of events. When the intensity function is parametrized, the testing of trend is a typical parametric testing problem. In industrial applications the operational experience generally does not suggest any specified model and method in advance. Therefore, and particularly, if the Poisson process assumption is very questionable, it is desirable to apply tests that are valid for a wide variety of possible processes. The alternative approach for trend testing is to use some non-parametric procedure. In this report we have presented four non-parametric tests: The Cox-Stuart test, the Wilcoxon signed ranks test, the Mann test, and the exponential ordered scores test. In addition to the classical parametric and non-parametric approaches we have also considered the Bayesian trend analysis. First we discuss a Bayesian model, which is based on a power law intensity model. The Bayesian statistical inferences are based on the analysis of the posterior distribution of the trend parameters, and the probability of trend is immediately seen from these distributions. We applied some of the methods discussed in an example case. It should be noted, that this report is a feasibility study rather than a scientific evaluation of statistical methods, and the examples can only be seen as demonstrations of the methods. 14 refs, 10 figs.

  19. Statistical trend analysis methods for temporal phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehtinen, E.; Pulkkinen, U.; Poern, K.

    1997-04-01

    We consider point events occurring in a random way in time. In many applications the pattern of occurrence is of intrinsic interest as indicating a trend or some other systematic feature in the rate of occurrence. The purpose of this report is to survey briefly different statistical trend analysis methods and illustrate their applicability to temporal phenomena in particular. The trend testing of point events is usually seen as the testing of the hypotheses concerning the intensity of the occurrence of events. When the intensity function is parametrized, the testing of trend is a typical parametric testing problem. In industrial applications the operational experience generally does not suggest any specified model and method in advance. Therefore, and particularly, if the Poisson process assumption is very questionable, it is desirable to apply tests that are valid for a wide variety of possible processes. The alternative approach for trend testing is to use some non-parametric procedure. In this report we have presented four non-parametric tests: The Cox-Stuart test, the Wilcoxon signed ranks test, the Mann test, and the exponential ordered scores test. In addition to the classical parametric and non-parametric approaches we have also considered the Bayesian trend analysis. First we discuss a Bayesian model, which is based on a power law intensity model. The Bayesian statistical inferences are based on the analysis of the posterior distribution of the trend parameters, and the probability of trend is immediately seen from these distributions. We applied some of the methods discussed in an example case. It should be noted, that this report is a feasibility study rather than a scientific evaluation of statistical methods, and the examples can only be seen as demonstrations of the methods

  20. Characterization of Land Transitions Patterns from Multivariate Time Series Using Seasonal Trend Analysis and Principal Component Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benoit Parmentier

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Characterizing biophysical changes in land change areas over large regions with short and noisy multivariate time series and multiple temporal parameters remains a challenging task. Most studies focus on detection rather than the characterization, i.e., the manner by which surface state variables are altered by the process of changes. In this study, a procedure is presented to extract and characterize simultaneous temporal changes in MODIS multivariate times series from three surface state variables the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, land surface temperature (LST and albedo (ALB. The analysis involves conducting a seasonal trend analysis (STA to extract three seasonal shape parameters (Amplitude 0, Amplitude 1 and Amplitude 2 and using principal component analysis (PCA to contrast trends in change and no-change areas. We illustrate the method by characterizing trends in burned and unburned pixels in Alaska over the 2001–2009 time period. Findings show consistent and meaningful extraction of temporal patterns related to fire disturbances. The first principal component (PC1 is characterized by a decrease in mean NDVI (Amplitude 0 with a concurrent increase in albedo (the mean and the annual amplitude and an increase in LST annual variability (Amplitude 1. These results provide systematic empirical evidence of surface changes associated with one type of land change, fire disturbances, and suggest that STA with PCA may be used to characterize many other types of land transitions over large landscape areas using multivariate Earth observation time series.

  1. Future Scenarios of Land Change Based on Empirical Data and Demographic Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason T.

    2017-11-01

    Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001-2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr-1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

  2. Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason

    2017-01-01

    Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr−1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

  3. Application Study of Comprehensive Forecasting Model Based on Entropy Weighting Method on Trend of PM2.5 Concentration in Guangzhou, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Dong-jun; Li, Li

    2015-01-01

    For the issue of haze-fog, PM2.5 is the main influence factor of haze-fog pollution in China. The trend of PM2.5 concentration was analyzed from a qualitative point of view based on mathematical models and simulation in this study. The comprehensive forecasting model (CFM) was developed based on the combination forecasting ideas. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) model and Exponential Smoothing Method (ESM) were used to predict the time series data of PM2.5 concentration. The results of the comprehensive forecasting model were obtained by combining the results of three methods based on the weights from the Entropy Weighting Method. The trend of PM2.5 concentration in Guangzhou China was quantitatively forecasted based on the comprehensive forecasting model. The results were compared with those of three single models, and PM2.5 concentration values in the next ten days were predicted. The comprehensive forecasting model balanced the deviation of each single prediction method, and had better applicability. It broadens a new prediction method for the air quality forecasting field. PMID:26110332

  4. Trend analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.; Jones, D.R.

    1991-01-01

    The goal of exploration is to find reserves that will earn an adequate rate of return on the capital invested. Neither exploration nor economics is an exact science. The authors must therefore explore in those trends (plays) that have the highest probability of achieving this goal. Trend analysis is a technique for organizing the available data to make these strategic exploration decisions objectively and is in conformance with their goals and risk attitudes. Trend analysis differs from resource estimation in its purpose. It seeks to determine the probability of economic success for an exploration program, not the ultimate results of the total industry effort. Thus the recent past is assumed to be the best estimate of the exploration probabilities for the near future. This information is combined with economic forecasts. The computer software tools necessary for trend analysis are (1) Information data base - requirements and sources. (2) Data conditioning program - assignment to trends, correction of errors, and conversion into usable form. (3) Statistical processing program - calculation of probability of success and discovery size probability distribution. (4) Analytical processing - Monte Carlo simulation to develop the probability distribution of the economic return/investment ratio for a trend. Limited capital (short-run) effects are analyzed using the Gambler's Ruin concept in the Monte Carlo simulation and by a short-cut method. Multiple trend analysis is concerned with comparing and ranking trends, allocating funds among acceptable trends, and characterizing program risk by using risk profiles. In summary, trend analysis is a reality check for long-range exploration planning

  5. Time trend and age-period-cohort effect on kidney cancer mortality in Europe, 1981–2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    López-Abente Gonzalo

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The incorporation of diagnostic and therapeutic improvements, as well as the different smoking patterns, may have had an influence on the observed variability in renal cancer mortality across Europe. This study examined time trends in kidney cancer mortality in fourteen European countries during the last two decades of the 20th century. Methods Kidney cancer deaths and population estimates for each country during the period 1981–2000 were drawn from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Age- and period-adjusted mortality rates, as well as annual percentage changes in age-adjusted mortality rates, were calculated for each country and geographical region. Log-linear Poisson models were also fitted to study the effect of age, death period, and birth cohort on kidney cancer mortality rates within each country. Results For men, the overall standardized kidney cancer mortality rates in the eastern, western, and northern European countries were 20, 25, and 53% higher than those for the southern European countries, respectively. However, age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant annual decrease of -0.7% in the north of Europe, a moderate rise of 0.7% in the west, and substantial increases of 1.4% in the south and 2.0% in the east. This trend was similar among women, but with lower mortality rates. Age-period-cohort models showed three different birth-cohort patterns for both men and women: a decrease in mortality trend for those generations born after 1920 in the Nordic countries, a similar but lagged decline for cohorts born after 1930 in western and southern European countries, and a continuous increase throughout all birth cohorts in eastern Europe. Similar but more heterogeneous regional patterns were observed for period effects. Conclusion Kidney cancer mortality trends in Europe showed a clear north-south pattern, with high rates on a downward trend in the north, intermediate rates on a more marked rising

  6. Technology trends in econometric energy models: Ignorance or information?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyd, G.; Kokkelenberg, E.; State Univ., of New York, Binghamton, NY; Ross, M.; Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI

    1991-01-01

    Simple time trend variables in factor demand models can be statistically powerful variables, but may tell the researcher very little. Even more complex specification of technical change, e.g. factor biased, are still the economentrician's ''measure of ignorance'' about the shifts that occur in the underlying production process. Furthermore, in periods of rapid technology change the parameters based on time trends may be too large for long run forecasting. When there is clearly identifiable engineering information about new technology adoption that changes the factor input mix, data for the technology adoption may be included in the traditional factor demand model to economically model specific factor biased technical change and econometrically test their contribution. The adoption of thermomechanical pulping (TMP) and electric are furnaces (EAF) are two electricity intensive technology trends in the Paper and Steel industries, respectively. This paper presents the results of including these variables in a tradition econometric factor demand model, which is based on the Generalized Leontief. The coefficients obtained for this ''engineering based'' technical change compares quite favorably to engineering estimates of the impact of TMP and EAF on electricity intensities, improves the estimates of the other price coefficients, and yields a more believable long run electricity forecast. 6 refs., 1 fig

  7. Contrasting trends in light pollution across Europe based on satellite observed night time lights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennie, Jonathan; Davies, Thomas W; Duffy, James P; Inger, Richard; Gaston, Kevin J

    2014-01-21

    Since the 1970s nighttime satellite images of the Earth from space have provided a striking illustration of the extent of artificial light. Meanwhile, growing awareness of adverse impacts of artificial light at night on scientific astronomy, human health, ecological processes and aesthetic enjoyment of the night sky has led to recognition of light pollution as a significant global environmental issue. Links between economic activity, population growth and artificial light are well documented in rapidly developing regions. Applying a novel method to analysis of satellite images of European nighttime lights over 15 years, we show that while the continental trend is towards increasing brightness, some economically developed regions show more complex patterns with large areas decreasing in observed brightness over this period. This highlights that opportunities exist to constrain and even reduce the environmental impact of artificial light pollution while delivering cost and energy-saving benefits.

  8. Time trends in upper gastrointestinal diseases and Helicobacter pylori infection in a multiracial Asian population--a 20-year experience over three time periods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leow, A H-R; Lim, Y-Y; Liew, W-C; Goh, K-L

    2016-04-01

    Marked epidemiological changes in upper gastrointestinal diseases and Helicobacter pylori infection have taken place in the Asian Pacific region. In particular, differences with respect to race in the multiracial Asian population in Malaysia have been important and interesting. A time trend study of upper gastrointestinal disease and H. pylori infection in three time periods: 1989-1990, 1999-2000 and 2009-2010 spanning a period of 20 years was carried out. Consecutive first time gastroscopies carried out on patients attending the University of Malaya Medical Center were studied. Diagnoses and H. pylori infection status were carefully recorded. A steady decline in prevalence of duodenal ulcer (DU) and gastric ulcer (GU) from 21.1% to 9.5% to 5.0% and from 11.9% to 9.4% to 9.9% while an increase in erosive oesophagitis (EO) from 2.0% to 8.4% to 9.5% (chi-square for trend; P Chinese and Indians but the difference over time was most marked in Malays. There was a steady decline in the proportion of patients with gastric and oesophageal cancers. Peptic ulcers have declined significantly over a 20-year period together with a decline in H. pylori infection. In contrast, a steady increase in erosive oesophagitis was observed. Gastric and oesophageal squamous cell cancers have declined to low levels. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Evaluating the power to detect temporal trends in fishery-independent time surveys: A case study based on gill nets set in the Ohio waters of Lake Erie for walleyes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Tyler; Vandergoot, Christopher S.; Tyson, Jeff

    2011-01-01

    Fishery-independent (FI) surveys provide critical information used for the sustainable management and conservation of fish populations. Because fisheries management often requires the effects of management actions to be evaluated and detected within a relatively short time frame, it is important that research be directed toward FI survey evaluation, especially with respect to the ability to detect temporal trends. Using annual FI gill-net survey data for Lake Erie walleyes Sander vitreus collected from 1978 to 2006 as a case study, our goals were to (1) highlight the usefulness of hierarchical models for estimating spatial and temporal sources of variation in catch per effort (CPE); (2) demonstrate how the resulting variance estimates can be used to examine the statistical power to detect temporal trends in CPE in relation to sample size, duration of sampling, and decisions regarding what data are most appropriate for analysis; and (3) discuss recommendations for evaluating FI surveys and analyzing the resulting data to support fisheries management. This case study illustrated that the statistical power to detect temporal trends was low over relatively short sampling periods (e.g., 5–10 years) unless the annual decline in CPE reached 10–20%. For example, if 50 sites were sampled each year, a 10% annual decline in CPE would not be detected with more than 0.80 power until 15 years of sampling, and a 5% annual decline would not be detected with more than 0.8 power for approximately 22 years. Because the evaluation of FI surveys is essential for ensuring that trends in fish populations can be detected over management-relevant time periods, we suggest using a meta-analysis–type approach across systems to quantify sources of spatial and temporal variation. This approach can be used to evaluate and identify sampling designs that increase the ability of managers to make inferences about trends in fish stocks.

  10. Current Trends in Higher Education Technology: Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damewood, Andrea M.

    2016-01-01

    This paper is focused on how technology in use changes over time, and the current trend of simulation technology as a supported classroom technology. Simulation-based training as a learning tool is discussed within the context of adult learning theories, as is the technology used and how today's higher education technology administrators support…

  11. THE VEGETATION TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN BEIJING-TIANJING-HEIBEI REGION FROM 1982 TO 2013 BASED ON TIME SERIES GIMMS NDVI3g

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Liu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Vegetation plays a leading role in ecosystems. Plant communities are the main components of ecosystems. Green plants in ecosystems are the primary producers, and they provide the living organic matter for the survival of other organisms. The dynamics of most landscapes are driven by both natural processes and human activities. In this study, the growing season GIMMS NDVI3g and climatic data were used to analyse the vegetation trends and drivers in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1982 to 2013. Result shows that, the vegetation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows overall restoration and partial degradation trend. The significant restoration region accounts for 61.5 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, while the significant degradation region accounts for 2.1 %. The dominant climatic factor for time series NDVI were analyzed using the multi-linear regression model. Vegetation growth in 17.9 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is dominated by temperature, 35.5 % is dominated by precipitation, and 11.68 % is dominated by solar radiance. Human activities play important role for vegetation restoration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, where the large scale forest restoration programs are the main human activities, such as the three-north shelterbelt construction project, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei sandstorm source control project and grain for green projects.

  12. Which Trend is your Friend?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Levine, Ari; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    Managed futures funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs) use heuristics or statistical measures often called “filters” to trade on price trends. Two key statistical measures of trends are “time-series momentum” and “moving-average crossovers.” We show, empirically and theoretically, that these......Managed futures funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs) use heuristics or statistical measures often called “filters” to trade on price trends. Two key statistical measures of trends are “time-series momentum” and “moving-average crossovers.” We show, empirically and theoretically......, that these trend indicators are closely related. In fact, they are equivalent representations in their most general forms. They also capture many other types of filters, such as the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter, the Kalman filter, and all other linear filters. We show how these filters can be represented through...

  13. Minimizing the effect of exponential trends in detrended fluctuation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Na; Shang Pengjian; Kamae, Santi

    2009-01-01

    The detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and its extensions (MF-DFA) have been used extensively to determine possible long-range correlations in time series. However, recent studies have reported the susceptibility of DFA to trends which give rise to spurious crossovers and prevent reliable estimation of the scaling exponents. In this report, a smoothing algorithm based on the discrete laplace transform (DFT) is proposed to minimize the effect of exponential trends and distortion in the log-log plots obtained by MF-DFA techniques. The effectiveness of the technique is demonstrated on monofractal and multifractal data corrupted with exponential trends.

  14. The Use of Categorized Time-Trend Reporting of Radiation Oncology Incidents: A Proactive Analytical Approach to Improving Quality and Safety Over Time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, Anthony; Delaney, Geoff P.; Cassapi, Lynette; Barton, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: Radiotherapy is a common treatment for cancer patients. Although incidence of error is low, errors can be severe or affect significant numbers of patients. In addition, errors will often not manifest until long periods after treatment. This study describes the development of an incident reporting tool that allows categorical analysis and time trend reporting, covering first 3 years of use. Methods and Materials: A radiotherapy-specific incident analysis system was established. Staff members were encouraged to report actual errors and near-miss events detected at prescription, simulation, planning, or treatment phases of radiotherapy delivery. Trend reporting was reviewed monthly. Results: Reports were analyzed for the first 3 years of operation (May 2004-2007). A total of 688 reports was received during the study period. The actual error rate was 0.2% per treatment episode. During the study period, the actual error rates reduced significantly from 1% per year to 0.3% per year (p < 0.001), as did the total event report rates (p < 0.0001). There were 3.5 times as many near misses reported compared with actual errors. Conclusions: This system has allowed real-time analysis of events within a radiation oncology department to a reduced error rate through focus on learning and prevention from the near-miss reports. Plans are underway to develop this reporting tool for Australia and New Zealand.

  15. Time trend of smoking scenes in Iranian movies during the past three decades (1982-2011): a historical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heydari, Gholamreza; Ebn Ahmady, Arezoo; Lando, Harry A; Chamyani, Fahimeh; Masjedi, Mohammad Reza; Shadmehr, Mohammad B; Fadaizadeh, Lida; Chaibakhsh, Samira

    2016-09-01

    Evidence from the USA and elsewhere has linked smoking depictions in movies with youth smoking initiation. Prior research has not focused on depictions in films produced in the Middle East, however. We reviewed the 10 most commercially successful Iranian films released each year over three decades (1982-2011) to determine trends in depictions of tobacco use over time. Each movie was reviewed in its entirety, and depictions of smoking were recorded and classified as direct (characters holding or using tobacco products) and indirect (tobacco products appearing in the frame, but not being used). Time trends in average duration of direct, indirect and total smoking depictions were analysed using linear regression and Cohen's κ coefficient. The mean duration of tobacco depictions in the most commercially successful Iranian films fluctuated yearly over the 3 decades, but with an overall significant upward trend (pfilm industry to minimise this important source of influence on tobacco initiation in young people. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  16. 0.1 Trend analysis of δ18O composition of precipitation in Germany: Combining Mann-Kendall trend test and ARIMA models to correct for higher order serial correlation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klaus, Julian; Pan Chun, Kwok; Stumpp, Christine

    2015-04-01

    Spatio-temporal dynamics of stable oxygen (18O) and hydrogen (2H) isotopes in precipitation can be used as proxies for changing hydro-meteorological and regional and global climate patterns. While spatial patterns and distributions gained much attention in recent years the temporal trends in stable isotope time series are rarely investigated and our understanding of them is still limited. These might be a result of a lack of proper trend detection tools and effort for exploring trend processes. Here we make use of an extensive data set of stable isotope in German precipitation. In this study we investigate temporal trends of δ18O in precipitation at 17 observation station in Germany between 1978 and 2009. For that we test different approaches for proper trend detection, accounting for first and higher order serial correlation. We test if significant trends in the isotope time series based on different models can be observed. We apply the Mann-Kendall trend tests on the isotope series, using general multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) models which account for first and higher order serial correlations. With the approach we can also account for the effects of temperature, precipitation amount on the trend. Further we investigate the role of geographic parameters on isotope trends. To benchmark our proposed approach, the ARIMA results are compared to a trend-free prewhiting (TFPW) procedure, the state of the art method for removing the first order autocorrelation in environmental trend studies. Moreover, we explore whether higher order serial correlations in isotope series affects our trend results. The results show that three out of the 17 stations have significant changes when higher order autocorrelation are adjusted, and four stations show a significant trend when temperature and precipitation effects are considered. Significant trends in the isotope time series are generally observed at low elevation stations (≤315 m a

  17. Road Traffic Injury Trends in the City of Valledupar, Colombia. A Time Series Study from 2008 to 2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Martín Rodríguez

    Full Text Available To analyze the behavior temporal of road-traffic injuries (RTI in Valledupar, Colombia from January 2008 to December 2012.An observational study was conducted based on records from the Colombian National Legal Medicine and Forensic Sciences Institute regional office in Valledupar. Different variables were analyzed, such as the injured person's sex, age, education level, and type of road user; the timeframe, place and circumstances of crashes and the vehicles associated with the occurrence. Furthermore, a time series analysis was conducted using an auto-regressive integrated moving average.There were 105 events per month on an average, 64.9% of RTI involved men; 82.3% of the persons injured were from 18 to 59 years of age; the average age was 35.4 years of age; the road users most involved in RTI were motorcyclists (69%, followed by pedestrians (12%. 70% had up to upper-secondary education. Sunday was the day with the most RTI occurrences; 93% of the RTI occurred in the urban area. The time series showed a seasonal pattern and a significant trend effect. The modeling process verified the existence of both memory and extrinsic variables related.An RTI occurrence pattern was identified, which showed an upward trend during the period analyzed. Motorcyclists were the main road users involved in RTI, which suggests the need to design and implement specific measures for that type of road user, from regulations for graduated licensing for young drivers to monitoring road user behavior for the promotion of road safety.

  18. A Rest Time-Based Prognostic Framework for State of Health Estimation of Lithium-Ion Batteries with Regeneration Phenomena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taichun Qin

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available State of health (SOH prognostics is significant for safe and reliable usage of lithium-ion batteries. To accurately predict regeneration phenomena and improve long-term prediction performance of battery SOH, this paper proposes a rest time-based prognostic framework (RTPF in which the beginning time interval of two adjacent cycles is adopted to reflect the rest time. In this framework, SOH values of regeneration cycles, the number of cycles in regeneration regions and global degradation trends are extracted from raw SOH time series and predicted respectively, and then the three sets of prediction results are integrated to calculate the final overall SOH prediction values. Regeneration phenomena can be found by support vector machine and hyperplane shift (SVM-HS model by detecting long beginning time intervals. Gaussian process (GP model is utilized to predict the global degradation trend, and nonlinear models are utilized to predict the regeneration amplitude and the cycle number of each regeneration region. The proposed framework is validated through experimental data from the degradation tests of lithium-ion batteries. The results demonstrate that both the global degradation trend and the regeneration phenomena of the testing batteries can be well predicted. Moreover, compared with the published methods, more accurate SOH prediction results can be obtained under this framework.

  19. Epidemiologic contributions to recent cancer trends among HIV-infected people in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Hilary A; Shiels, Meredith S; Pfeiffer, Ruth M; Engels, Eric A

    2014-03-27

    HIV-infected people have elevated risk for some cancers. Changing incidence of these cancers over time may reflect changes in three factors: HIV population demographic structure (e.g. age distribution), general population (background) cancer rates, and HIV-associated relative risks. We assessed the contributions of these factors to time trends for 10 cancers during 1996-2010. Population-based registry linkage study. We applied Poisson models to data from the U.S. HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study to estimate annual percentage changes (APCs) in incidence rates of AIDS-defining cancers [ADCs: Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), and cervical cancer] and seven non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs). We evaluated HIV-infected cancer trends with and without adjustment for demographics, trends in background rates, and trends in standardized incidence ratios (SIRs, to capture relative risk). Cancer rates among HIV-infected people rose over time for anal (APC 3.8%), liver (8.5%), and prostate (9.8%) cancers, but declined for Kaposi sarcoma (1996-2000: -29.3%; 2000-2010: -7.8%), NHL (1996-2003: -15.7%; 2003-2010: -5.5%), cervical cancer (-11.1%), Hodgkin lymphoma (-4.0%), and lung cancer (-2.8%). Breast and colorectal cancer incidence did not change over time. Based on comparison to adjusted models, changing demographics contributed to trends for Kaposi sarcoma and breast, colorectal, liver, lung, and prostate cancers (all P cancers. SIRs declined for ADCs, Hodgkin lymphoma (APC -3.2%), and lung cancer (-4.4%). Demographic shifts influenced several cancer trends among HIV-infected individuals. Falling relative risks largely explained ADC declines, while background incidence contributed to some NADC trends.

  20. Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations in National Parks of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, H.; McGlynn, D. F.; Wu, Z.; Sive, B. C.

    2017-12-01

    A time scale decomposition technique, the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), has been employed to decompose the time scales in long-term ozone measurement data at 24 US National Park Service sites. Time scales of interest include the annual cycle, variability by large scale climate oscillations, and the long-term trend. The implementation of policy regulations was found to have had a greater effect on sites nearest to urban regions. Ozone daily mean values increased until around the late 1990s followed by decreasing trends during the ensuing decades for sites in the East, southern California, and northwestern Washington. Sites in the Midwest did not experience a reversal of trends from positive to negative until the mid- to late 2000s. The magnitude of the annual amplitude decreased for nine sites and increased for three sites. Stronger decreases in the annual amplitude occurred in the East, with more sites in the East experiencing decreases in annual amplitude than in the West. The date of annual ozone peaks and minimums has changed for 12 sites in total, but those with a shift in peak date did not necessarily have a shift in the trough date. There appeared to be a link between peak dates occurring earlier and a decrease in the annual amplitude. This is likely related to a decrease in ozone titration due to NOx emission reductions. Furthermore, it was found that the shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) regime from positive to negative in 1998-1999 resulting in an increase in occurrences of La Niña-like conditions had the effect of directing more polluted air masses from East Asia to higher latitudes over North America. This change in PDO regime was likely one main factor causing the increase in ozone concentrations on all time scales at an Alaskan site DENA-HQ.

  1. Understanding NOx emission trends in China based on OMI observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Ga, D.; Smeltzer, C. D.; Yi, R.; Liu, Z.

    2012-12-01

    We analyze OMI observations of NO2 columns over China from 2005 to 2010. Simulations using a regional 3-D chemical transport model (REAM) are used to derive the top-down anthropogenic NOx emissions. The Kendall method is then applied to derive the emission trend. The emission trend is affected by the economic slowdown in 2009. After removing the effect of one year abnormal data, the overall emission trend is 4.35±1.42% per year, which is slower than the linear-regression trend of 5.8-10.8% per year reported for previous years. We find large regional, seasonal, and urban-rural variations in emission trend. The annual emission trends of Northeast China, Central China Plain, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are 44.98±1.39%, 5.24±1.63%, 3.31±1.02% and -4.02±1.87%, respectively. The annual emission trends of four megacities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are 0.7±0.27%, -0.75±0.31%, -4.08±1.21% and -6.22±2.85%,, considerably lower than the regional averages. These results appear to suggest that a number of factors, including migration of high-emission industries, vehicle emission regulations, emission control measures of thermal power plants, increased hydro-power usage, have reduced or reversed the increasing trend of NOx emissions in more economically developed megacities and southern coastal regions.

  2. Mindfulness-based cognitive therapy for depression: trends and developments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKenzie, Meagan B; Kocovski, Nancy L

    2016-01-01

    Mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT) was developed as a psychological intervention for individuals at risk of depressive relapse. Possible mechanisms of change for this intervention are in line with its theoretical underpinnings, and include increases in mindfulness and/or decreases in negative repetitive thoughts. This review provides an overview of current trends in MBCT research, including efficacy and questions regarding the specific effects of MBCT in light of recent comparisons with structurally equivalent control conditions, mechanisms of change, and moderators of treatment outcome. In addition, future directions are discussed, such as challenges with training an adequate number of therapists and disseminating this therapy.

  3. Time is on whose side? Time trends in the association between maternal social disadvantage and offspring fetal growth. A study of 1,409,339 births in Denmark 1981-2004

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Laust H; Diderichsen, Finn; Davey-Smith, George

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Fetal growth is highly socially patterned and is related to health across the life course, but how the social patterns of fetal growth change over time remains understudied. We examined the time trends in maternal social disadvantage in relation to fetal growth in the context of a univ......OBJECTIVE: Fetal growth is highly socially patterned and is related to health across the life course, but how the social patterns of fetal growth change over time remains understudied. We examined the time trends in maternal social disadvantage in relation to fetal growth in the context...... of a universal welfare state under changing macroeconomic conditions over a 24-year period. Design and settings: All births in Denmark 1981-2004. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The association between maternal social disadvantage in relation to birth weight for gestational age z-scores over time were analysed using...... linear regression. RESULTS: All measures of social disadvantage were associated with decreased fetal growth (p

  4. Survival after Abdominoperineal and Sphincter-Preserving Resection in Nonmetastatic Rectal Cancer: A Population-Based Time-Trend and Propensity Score-Matched SEER Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rene Warschkow

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Abdominoperineal resection (APR has been associated with impaired survival in nonmetastatic rectal cancer patients. It is unclear whether this adverse outcome is due to the surgical procedure itself or is a consequence of tumor-related characteristics. Study Design. Patients were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The impact of APR compared to coloanal anastomosis (CAA on survival was assessed by Cox regression and propensity-score matching. Results. In 36,488 patients with rectal cancer resection, the APR rate declined from 31.8% in 1998 to 19.2% in 2011, with a significant trend change in 2004 at 21.6% (P<0.001. To minimize a potential time-trend bias, survival analysis was limited to patients diagnosed after 2004. APR was associated with an increased risk of cancer-specific mortality after unadjusted analysis (HR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.28–2.03, P<0.01 and multivariable adjustment (HR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.10–1.76, P<0.01. After optimal adjustment of highly biased patient characteristics by propensity-score matching, APR was not identified as a risk factor for cancer-specific mortality (HR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.56–1.29, P=0.456. Conclusions. The current propensity score-adjusted analysis provides evidence that worse oncological outcomes in patients undergoing APR compared to CAA are caused by different patient characteristics and not by the surgical procedure itself.

  5. Local Vegetation Trends in the Sahel of Mali and Senegal Using Long Time Series FAPAR Satellite Products and Field Measurement (1982–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Brandt

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Local vegetation trends in the Sahel of Mali and Senegal from Geoland Version 1 (GEOV1 (5 km and the third generation Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS3g (8 km Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR time series are studied over 29 years. For validation and interpretation of observed greenness trends, two methods are applied: (1 a qualitative approach using in-depth knowledge of the study areas and (2 a quantitative approach by time series of biomass observations and rainfall data. Significant greening trends from 1982 to 2010 are consistently observed in both GEOV1 and GIMMS3g FAPAR datasets. Annual rainfall increased significantly during the observed time period, explaining large parts of FAPAR variations at a regional scale. Locally, GEOV1 data reveals a heterogeneous pattern of vegetation change, which is confirmed by long-term ground data and site visits. The spatial variability in the observed vegetation trends in the Sahel area are mainly caused by varying tree- and land-cover, which are controlled by human impact, soil and drought resilience. A large proportion of the positive trends are caused by the increment in leaf biomass of woody species that has almost doubled since the 1980s due to a tree cover regeneration after a dry-period. This confirms the re-greening of the Sahel, however, degradation is also present and sometimes obscured by greening. GEOV1 as compared to GIMMS3g made it possible to better characterize the spatial pattern of trends and identify the degraded areas in the study region.

  6. Chaos Time Series Prediction Based on Membrane Optimization Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper puts forward a prediction model based on membrane computing optimization algorithm for chaos time series; the model optimizes simultaneously the parameters of phase space reconstruction (τ,m and least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM (γ,σ by using membrane computing optimization algorithm. It is an important basis for spectrum management to predict accurately the change trend of parameters in the electromagnetic environment, which can help decision makers to adopt an optimal action. Then, the model presented in this paper is used to forecast band occupancy rate of frequency modulation (FM broadcasting band and interphone band. To show the applicability and superiority of the proposed model, this paper will compare the forecast model presented in it with conventional similar models. The experimental results show that whether single-step prediction or multistep prediction, the proposed model performs best based on three error measures, namely, normalized mean square error (NMSE, root mean square error (RMSE, and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE.

  7. Understanding evapotranspiration trends and their driving mechanisms over the NLDAS domain based on numerical experiments using CLM4.5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parr, Dana; Wang, Guiling; Fu, Congsheng

    2016-07-01

    Previous studies documented a recent decline of the global terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) trend, of which the underlying mechanisms are not well understood. Based on experiments using the Community Land Model version 4.5 driven with the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase-2 (NLDAS-2) forcing data, this study investigates the variation and changes of ET trends at the continental scale and the mechanisms underlying these changes. Simulations are conducted over the NLDAS domain including the contiguous U.S. and part of Mexico for the period of 1980-2014. Changes of ET trend are derived based on the two subperiods 1982-1997 and 1998-2008. The strongest signals of trend change, of either sign, are primarily located in dry regimes, where ET is limited by water rather than energy. Sensitivity experiments were performed to isolate the impact of some of the most influential factors on the changing ET trends. Results indicate that trends in wind speed and surface air temperature had negligible impact on the ET trend and its changes within the study domain, and the ET trend and its changes are dominated by changes in precipitation amount. Changes in precipitation characteristics including the frequency and intensity are suggested to have a secondary effect on the ET trend changes through modifying the partitioning of water between infiltration and runoff. These findings are further supported by correlation coefficients between ET and various driving factors. Results from this study may be region specific and therefore may not hold for ET trend changes over the rest of the globe.

  8. Characteristic Trend Analysis of Cancer Patients Hospitalized in Shanxi Tumor Hospital for the First Time during 2001 and 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wen-Li; Wang, Yan; Han, Cun-Zhi

    2015-01-01

    To observe and analyze the characteristic trend of cancer patients hospitalized for the first time in Shanxi Tumor Hospital from 2001 to 2010, clinical data including case number, age, gender, and frequency of different tumor occurrences were collected and statistically analyzed. (i) From 2001 to 2010, the number of cancer patients hospitalized for the first time increased by 1.3-fold; (ii) The patient overall average age also increased from 51.8 to 54.4, for males from 55.5 to 58.7 and females from 48.4 to 51.1, respectively. (iii) Male patients accounted for 43-48% and females accounted for 52-57% of the total. The percentage of female patients was higher than that of male patients in every year and showed an upward trend over the years, while that of the males showed a downward trend (χ2 =7.031, p=0.008); (iv) Among the top 6 most common cancers, lung, cervical, esophageal, colorectal and breast cancers tended to increase over the years (ppatients hospitalized for the first time during the past 10 years increased year by year, and was higher for female than male; (ii) the average age of patients increased year after year and was greater for male than female; (iii) the number of patients with lung cancer, cervical cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer and breast cancer increased over years.

  9. A Global Perspective on Trends in Nature-Based Tourism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balmford, Andrew; Beresford, James; Green, Jonathan; Naidoo, Robin; Walpole, Matt; Manica, Andrea

    2009-01-01

    Reports of rapid growth in nature-based tourism and recreation add significant weight to the economic case for biodiversity conservation but seem to contradict widely voiced concerns that people are becoming increasingly isolated from nature. This apparent paradox has been highlighted by a recent study showing that on a per capita basis, visits to natural areas in the United States and Japan have declined over the last two decades. These results have been cited as evidence of “a fundamental and pervasive shift away from nature-based recreation”—but how widespread is this phenomenon? We address this question by looking at temporal trends in visitor numbers at 280 protected areas (PAs) from 20 countries. This more geographically representative dataset shows that while PA visitation (whether measured as total or per capita visit numbers) is indeed declining in the United States and Japan, it is generally increasing elsewhere. Total visit numbers are growing in 15 of the 20 countries for which we could get data, with the median national rate of change unrelated to the national rate of population growth but negatively associated with wealth. Reasons for this reversal of growth in the richest countries are difficult to pin down with existing data, but the pattern is mirrored by trends in international tourist arrivals as a whole and so may not necessarily be caused by disaffection with nature. Irrespective of the explanation, it is clear that despite important downturns in some countries, nature-related tourism is far from declining everywhere, and may still have considerable potential both to generate funds for conservation and to shape people's attitudes to the environment. PMID:19564896

  10. Trends in spread of the particle therapy of cancers to areal bases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abe, Mitsuyuki; Aoki, Takashi; Tsujii, Hirohiko

    2009-01-01

    In Japan, the rate of cancer death accounts for 30%, now there are 8 facilities having the cancer particle therapy (PT) which is promising due to its highly effective, short term, non-surgical, not always expensive treatment, and local areas have tended to construct such facility for their people. This special article describes trends in the title concerning the areal intention for setting up the therapeutic bases, global trend of PT, research and development in manufacturers of PT equipments, and response of health insurer to the trend. The article contains following 15 topics presented by 15 authors or groups of the academia, official and company institutes, prefectural officers, manufacturers and an insurer, and by Editorial. Topics are: Significance and future view of PT in cancer treatment; Present state of construction of PT facilities in various areas; Fifteen year-results of PT in near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) and its effort to spread the therapy; Gumma University's 21st century program COE (Center of Excellence), Medical and Biological Studies with Accelerator Technology; Project for constructing Fukui Prefectural Proton PT Center; The role of Proton PT Center in southern Tohoku area as the first private facility; PT center by Foundation of Medipolis Medical Research Institute in southern Kyushu area; Global trend of PT; Spread of PT and the role of health insurance in it/Mitsui-Sumitomo's health insurance, Kirameki, the contribution to general public; Mitsubishi Electric Corp.'s effort to spread PT equipments; Toshiba's effort; Hitachi's effort; Sumitomo Heavy Industries' effort; Effort by Chiyoda Technol Corp. and Still River Systems to develop the next generation superconducting PT equipment; and Overview by Editorial/Complicated trend in invitation and construction of PT facilities. (K.T.)

  11. Effect of an evidence-based website on healthcare usage: an interrupted time-series study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spoelman, Wouter A; Bonten, Tobias N; de Waal, Margot W M; Drenthen, Ton; Smeele, Ivo J M; Nielen, Markus M J; Chavannes, Niels H

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Healthcare costs and usage are rising. Evidence-based online health information may reduce healthcare usage, but the evidence is scarce. The objective of this study was to determine whether the release of a nationwide evidence-based health website was associated with a reduction in healthcare usage. Design Interrupted time series analysis of observational primary care data of healthcare use in the Netherlands from 2009 to 2014. Setting General community primary care. Population 912 000 patients who visited their general practitioners 18.1 million times during the study period. Intervention In March 2012, an evidence-based health information website was launched by the Dutch College of General Practitioners. It was easily accessible and understandable using plain language. At the end of the study period, the website had 2.9 million unique page views per month. Main outcomes measures Primary outcome was the change in consultation rate (consultations/1000 patients/month) before and after the release of the website. Additionally, a reference group was created by including consultations about topics not being viewed at the website. Subgroup analyses were performed for type of consultations, sex, age and socioeconomic status. Results After launch of the website, the trend in consultation rate decreased with 1.620 consultations/1000 patients/month (p<0.001). This corresponds to a 12% decline in consultations 2 years after launch of the website. The trend in consultation rate of the reference group showed no change. The subgroup analyses showed a specific decline for consultations by phone and were significant for all other subgroups, except for the youngest age group. Conclusions Healthcare usage decreased by 12% after providing high-quality evidence-based online health information. These findings show that e-Health can be effective to improve self-management and reduce healthcare usage in times of increasing healthcare costs. PMID:28186945

  12. A Review of Fuzzy Logic and Neural Network Based Intelligent Control Design for Discrete-Time Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiming Jiang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the last few decades, the intelligent control methods such as fuzzy logic control (FLC and neural network (NN control have been successfully used in various applications. The rapid development of digital computer based control systems requires control signals to be calculated in a digital or discrete-time form. In this background, the intelligent control methods developed for discrete-time systems have drawn great attentions. This survey aims to present a summary of the state of the art of the design of FLC and NN-based intelligent control for discrete-time systems. For discrete-time FLC systems, numerous remarkable design approaches are introduced and a series of efficient methods to deal with the robustness, stability, and time delay of FLC discrete-time systems are recommended. Techniques for NN-based intelligent control for discrete-time systems, such as adaptive methods and adaptive dynamic programming approaches, are also reviewed. Overall, this paper is devoted to make a brief summary for recent progresses in FLC and NN-based intelligent control design for discrete-time systems as well as to present our thoughts and considerations of recent trends and potential research directions in this area.

  13. Trends in television and computer/videogame use and total screen time in high school students from Caruaru city, Pernambuco, Brazil: A repeated panel study between 2007 and 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis José Lagos Aros

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Aim: to analyze the pattern and trends of use of screen-based devices and associated factors from two surveys conducted on public high school students in Caruaru-PE. Methods: two representative school-based cross-sectional surveys conducted in 2007 (n=600 and 2012 (n=715 on high school students (15-20 years old. The time of exposure to television (TV and computer/videogames PC/VG was obtained through a validated questionnaire, and ≥3 hours/day was considered as being excessive exposure. The independent variables were socioeconomic status, school related, and physical activity. Crude and adjusted binary logistic regression were employed to examine the factors associated with screen time. The statistical significance was set at p<0.05. Results: There was a significant reduction in TV time on weekdays and total weekly, but no change in the prevalence of excessive exposure. The proportion of exposure to PC/VG of ≥3 hours/day increased 182.5% on weekdays and 69.5% on weekends (p <0.05. In 2007, being physically active was the only protection factor for excessive exposure to total screen time. In 2012, girls presented less chance of excessive exposure to all screen-based devices and total screen time. Other protective factors were studying at night and being physically active (PC/VG time, while residing in an urban area [OR 5.03(2.77-7.41] and having higher family income [OR 1.55(1.04-2.30] were risk factors. Conclusion: Significant and important changes in the time trends and pattern of use PC/VG were observed during the interval of 5 years. This rapid increase could be associated with increased family income and improved access to these devices, driven by technological developments.

  14. Attribution of the Regional Patterns of North American Climate Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoerling, M.; Kumar, A.; Karoly, D.; Rind, D.; Hegerl, G.; Eischeid, J.

    2007-12-01

    North American trends in surface temperature and precipitation during 1951-2006 exhibit large spatial and seasonal variations. We seek to explain these by synthesizing new information based on existing model simulations of climate and its forcing, and based on modern reanalyses that describe past and current conditions within the free atmosphere. The presentation focuses on current capabilities to explain the spatial variations and seasonal differences in North American climate trends. It will address whether various heterogeneities in space and time can be accounted for by the climate system's sensitivity to time evolving anthropogenic forcing, and examines the influences of non-anthropogenic processes. New findings are presented that indicate anthropogenic forcing alone was unlikely the cause for key regional and seasonal patterns of change, including the absence of summertime warming over the Great Plains of the United States, and the absence of warming during both winter and summer over the southern United States. Key regional features are instead attributed to trends in the principal patterns of atmospheric flow that affect North American climate. It is demonstrated that observed variations in global sea surface temperatures have significantly influenced these patterns of atmospheric flow.

  15. Oral cancer in Cali, Colombia: a population-based analysis of incidence and mortality trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dora Ordóñez

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To describe the time trends of the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer (OC in Cali, Colombia between 1962-2007. Materials and methods. Age-standardized (Segi’s world population incidence (ASIR and mortality (ASMR rates for oral cancer were estimated using data from the Population-based Cancer Registry of Cali, Colombia and from the database of the Municipal Secretary of Public Health (MSPH respectively. Annual percentage change (APC was used to measure the changes in rates over time. Results. 1 637 new cases of oral cancer were registered in the CPCR and the mean age upon diagnosis was 60 years. The ASIR decreased from 1962-2007 in men APC= 1.3 (IC95%:-2.0; -0.6 and women APC= -1.0 (IC95%: -1.7; -0.4.The ASMR decreased from 1984-2001 only in men, APC=2.8 (IC95%: -4.1; -1.5. Conclusions. There was a significant decrease in the incidence and mortality rates for OC in Cali, Colombia. The type of tumor associated to these changes was the squamous cell carcinoma

  16. [Oral cancer in Cali, Colombia: a population-based analysis of incidence and mortality trends].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordóñez, Dora; Aragón, Natalia; García, Luz Stella; Collazos, Paola; Bravo, Luis Eduardo

    2014-01-01

    To describe the time trends of the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer (OC) in Cali, Colombia between 1962-2007. Age-standardized (Segi's world population) incidence (ASIR) and mortality (ASMR) rates for oral cancer were estimated using data from the Population-based Cancer Registry of Cali, Colombia and from the database of the Municipal Secretary of Public Health (MSPH) respectively. Annual percentage change (APC) was used to measure the changes in rates over time. 1637 new cases of oral cancer were registered in the CPCR and the mean age upon diagnosis was 60 years. The ASIR decreased from 1962-2007 in men APC= 1.3 (IC95%:-2.0; -0.6) and women APC= -1.0 (IC95%: -1.7; -0.4).The ASMR decreased from 1984-2001 only in men, APC=2.8 (IC95%: -4.1; -1.5). There was a significant decrease in the incidence and mortality rates for OC in Cali, Colombia. The type of tumor associated to these changes was the squamous cell carcinoma.

  17. Real-time on-line space research laboratory environment monitoring with off-line trend and prediction analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

    2007-06-01

    With the International Space Station currently operational, a significant amount of acceleration data is being down-linked, processed and analyzed daily on the ground on a continuous basis for the space station reduced gravity environment characterization, the vehicle design requirements verification and science data collection. To help understand the impact of the unique spacecraft environment on the science data, an artificial intelligence monitoring system was developed, which detects in near real time any change in the reduced gravity environment susceptible to affect the on-going experiments. Using a dynamic graphical display, the monitoring system allows science teams, at any time and any location, to see the active vibration disturbances, such as pumps, fans, compressor, crew exercise, re-boost and extra-vehicular activities that might impact the reduced gravity environment the experiments are exposed to. The monitoring system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many increments (an increment usually lasts 6 months) collected onboard the station for selected disturbances. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential systems failures. The monitoring system has two operating modes: online and offline. Both near real-time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line detection and trend analysis are discussed in this paper.

  18. Landsat-based Analysis of Mountain Forest-tundra Ecotone Response to Climate Trends in Sayan Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharuk, Viatcheslav I.; Im, Sergey T.; Ranson, K. Jon

    2007-01-01

    observations of temperatures Siberia has shown a several degree warming over the past 30 years. It is expected that forest will respond to warming at high latitudes through increased tree growth and northward or upward slope migration. migration. Tree response to climate trends is most likely observable in the forest-tundra ecotone, where temperature mainly limits tree growth. Making repeated satellite observations over several decades provides an opportunity to track vegetation response to climate change. Based on Landsat data of the Sayan Mountains, Siberia, there was an increase in forest stand crown closure and an upward tree-line shift in the of the forest-tundra ecotone during the last quarter of the 2oth century,. On-ground observations, supporting these results, also showed regeneration of Siberian pine in the alpine tundra, and the transformation of prostrate Siberian pine and fir into arboreal (upright) forms. During this time period sparse stands transformed into closed stands, with existing closed stands increasing in area at a rate of approx. 1 %/yr, and advancing their upper border at a vertical rate of approx. 1.0 m/yr. In addition, the vertical rate of regeneration propagation is approx. 5 m/yr. It was also found that these changes correlated positively with temperature trends

  19. A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF FORECASTING MODELS FOR TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES DOES COMPLEX MODEL ALWAYS YIELD BETTER FORECAST THAN SIMPLE MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suhartono Suhartono

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Many business and economic time series are non-stationary time series that contain trend and seasonal variations. Seasonality is a periodic and recurrent pattern caused by factors such as weather, holidays, or repeating promotions. A stochastic trend is often accompanied with the seasonal variations and can have a significant impact on various forecasting methods. In this paper, we will investigate and compare some forecasting methods for modeling time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. These methods are Winter's, Decomposition, Time Series Regression, ARIMA and Neural Networks models. In this empirical research, we study on the effectiveness of the forecasting performance, particularly to answer whether a complex method always give a better forecast than a simpler method. We use a real data, that is airline passenger data. The result shows that the more complex model does not always yield a better result than a simpler one. Additionally, we also find the possibility to do further research especially the use of hybrid model by combining some forecasting method to get better forecast, for example combination between decomposition (as data preprocessing and neural network model.

  20. Time-trends and causes of infant, neonatal and postneonatal mortality in Mexico, 1980-1990

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUSAN VANDALE

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. This article analyzes the time-trends and causes of infant, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality in Mexico during the 1980’s. Material and methods. Data on infant deaths came from yearly tabulations (1980 to 1990 published by the Mexican government. Time-trends of mortality rates were determined by simple linear regression models. The parallelism test was performed for evaluating similarities in trends in neonatal and postneonatal mortality rates by causes. Results. During the 1980’s, infant mortality rates in Mexico declined from 40.4 to 31.1/1 000 (ß= -0.791. Postneonatal mortality rates showed a strong decrease (ß= -0.892, while neonatal mortality rates were almost stationary (ß= 0.089. Significant rate decreases were observed for Intestinal infections, Pneumonia and influenza and all other causes while Certain perinatal problems, Congenital defects and Nutritional deficiencies increased. No changes were observed in Acute respiratory infections. The neonatal proportional mortality showed an incremental trend accounting for 37.6% in 1980 and ascending to 48.8% in 1990 of the mortality in the first year of life. Conclusions.This analysis indicates that the reduction in infant mortality in Mexico during the 1980’s was due to declining postneonatal mortality while neonatal mortality rates remain almost unchanged.Objetivo. Analizar las tendencias seculares de las tasas de mortalidad infantil (TMI neonatal (TMN y posneonatal (TMP en México de 1980-1990. Material y métodos. La información estudiada fue proporcionada por el Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática. Las tendencias de los indicadores fueron determinadas mediante modelos de regresión lineal y se efectuaron pruebas de paralelismo para evaluar la semejanza en pendientes de TMN y TMP por causas. Resultados. Las TMI se redujeron de 40.4 a 31.1/1 000, (ß= -0.791. Las TMP mostraron un decremento significativo (ß= -0.892, mientras que las TMN

  1. Observation-based trends in ambient ozone in the Czech Republic over the past two decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hůnová, Iva; Bäumelt, Vít

    2018-01-01

    We present the trends in ambient ozone concentrations based on high quality data measured continuously at 26 long-term monitoring sites (9 urban, 17 rural including 10 mountain stations) in the Czech Republic in 1994-2015. We considered annual and summer medians, the 10th and 98th percentiles, maximum daily 8-h running mean concentrations and exposure index AOT40F. For all indicators taken into account except for the 10th percentile, our results showed a similar pattern with significant decreasing trends for about one half of the examined sites. We obtained similar results for all types of sites. The most pronounced decrease in O3 concentrations was recorded at mountain sites. Namely, at the Šerlich mountain site, with an overall decrease per year in annual median by 0.43 ppb, summer median by 1.17 ppb, maximal daily 8-h average by 0.45 ppb, the 10th percentile by 0.62 ppb. The peak concentrations indicated by the 98th percentile and AOT40F decreased most at urban site České Budějovice by 0.75 ppb and 0.84 ppb h per year, respectively. For sites exhibiting significant decreasing trends, an overall decrease per year in annual median was 0.22 ppb, in summer median 0.41 ppb, in the 10th percentile 0.23 ppb, in the 98th percentile 0.53 ppb, and in AOT40F 0.51 ppb h. A significant increasing trend was detected only in the 10th percentile at just three sites, with the highest increase of 0.19 ppb per year recorded at the rural site Sněžník. Moreover, a consistent decrease in limit value exceedances was detected, with by far the highest violation recorded in the meteorologically exceptional year of 2003. Out of the 26 sites under review, seven have not recorded a significant decreasing trend in O3 in any of the considered statistics. The lack of trends in O3 at these seven sites is likely associated with changing time patterns in local NO and NO2 emissions: in particular, with the increasing ratio in NO2/NOx. There is an obvious geographical pattern in recorded O3

  2. De-trending of turbulence measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

    2006-01-01

    contribution to the wind speed turbulence intensity for a number of representative locations. A linear de-trending process has been implemented during indexing of the time-series. The observed de-trended turbulence intensities are reduced 3 – 15 % compared to the raw turbulence intensity. This reduction...... depends primarily on site characteristics and local mean wind speed variations. Reduced turbulence intensity will result in lower design fatigue loads. This aspect of de-trending is discussed by use of a simple heuristic load model. Finally an empirical model for de-trending wind resource data...

  3. On interrelations of recurrences and connectivity trends between stock indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, B.; Ambika, G.; Marwan, N.; Kurths, J.

    2012-09-01

    Financial data has been extensively studied for correlations using Pearson's cross-correlation coefficient ρ as the point of departure. We employ an estimator based on recurrence plots - the correlation of probability of recurrence (CPR) - to analyze connections between nine stock indices spread worldwide. We suggest a slight modification of the CPR approach in order to get more robust results. We examine trends in CPR for an approximately 19-month window moved along the time series and compare them to trends in ρ. Binning CPR into three levels of connectedness (strong, moderate, and weak), we extract the trends in number of connections in each bin over time. We also look at the behavior of CPR during the dot-com bubble by shifting the time series to align their peaks. CPR mainly uncovers that the markets move in and out of periods of strong connectivity erratically, instead of moving monotonically towards increasing global connectivity. This is in contrast to ρ, which gives a picture of ever-increasing correlation. CPR also exhibits that time-shifted markets have high connectivity around the dot-com bubble of 2000. We use significance tests using twin surrogates to interpret all the measures estimated in the study.

  4. World trends from 2017

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janković Slobodan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Issue of prognosis, analyses of future trends is companion to statecraft, political, economic and military planning. How we plan, what does IR says about scientific prognosis. Jankovic starts with this set of issues in order to pass into prognosis itself based on observable world trends. He claims that European Union has entered its climax comparing it foreign policy situation with that of war situation of Third Reich in 1943. Article is divided in five parts. After presenting and criticizing Anglo-American approach in prognosis, he starts with analysis of the world order changes, of EU trends, Middle, Far East and some trends regarding Africa. Author presents macro trends in North - West Pacific, in Israel-Palestine, in Syria, Iraq, in Europe.

  5. Time trends in social class mortality: differentials in the Netherlands, 1820-1920: an assessment based on indirect estimation techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Poppel, F.W.A.; Jennissen, R.; Mandemakers, K.

    2009-01-01

    The question whether socioeconomic status gradients in adult mortality have changed over a broad historical period has become an important political and theoretical issue but is hard to test. In this article we study long-term trends in social inequality in adult mortality by using data for 2 (of

  6. Twenty four year time trends in fats and cholesterol intake by adolescents. Warsaw Adolescents Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charzewska Jadwiga

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to determine time trends (1982–2006 in total fat intake and changes in fatty acid structure intake in adolescents from Warsaw in view of increasing prevalence of obesity. Data come from four successive surveys randomly selected samples of adolescents (aged 11–15 years old, from Warsaw region. In total 9747 pupils have been examined, with response rate varying from 55% to 87% depending on year. Surveys were done always in the spring season of the year. Food intake was assessed by using 24 hours recall method of consumption by the pupils all products, including enriched, dishes and beverages as well as diet supplements, in the last 24 hours preceding the examination. The content of energy and nutrients was calculated by means of own computer softwares (DIET 2 and 4, taking into account successive revisions of the tables of food composition and nutritional values, as well as current Polish DRI. A significant decreasing trend was found in intake of total fat, of saturated fatty acids (SFA and cholesterol. The percentage of energy from total fat, also decreased both in boys (to 35,1% and girls (to 33,7%, what failed to reach the desired level below 30% of energy from fat which is recommended. Also significant decrease of SFA consumption was not satisfactory enough to approach the values <10% of energy recommended as was from 13% to 15%. Decreasing trends in fat intake was not in accordance with the trend in obesity prevalence in the adolescents as average BMI is going up. To stabilize the health-oriented changes especially in the diets of adolescents, further activity is desired from professionals working with prevention of adolescents obesity.

  7. Mediterranean Ocean Colour Chlorophyll Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colella, Simone; Falcini, Federico; Rinaldi, Eleonora; Sammartino, Michela; Santoleri, Rosalia

    2016-01-01

    In being at the base of the marine food web, phytoplankton is particularly important for marine ecosystem functioning (e.g., biodiversity). Strong anthropization, over-exploitation of natural resources, and climate change affect the natural amount of phytoplankton and, therefore, represent a continuous threat to the biodiversity in marine waters. In particular, a concerning risks for coastal waters is the increase in nutrient inputs of terrestrial/anthropogenic origin that can lead to undesirable modifications of phytoplankton concentration (i.e., eutrophication). Monitoring chlorophyll (Chl) concentration, which is a proxy of phytoplankton biomass, is an efficient tool for recording and understanding the response of the marine ecosystem to human pressures and thus for detecting eutrophication. Here, we compute Chl trends over the Mediterranean Sea by using satellite data, also highlighting the fact that remote sensing may represent an efficient and reliable solution to synoptically control the "good environmental status" (i.e., the Marine Directive to achieve Good Environmental Status of EU marine waters by 2020) and to assess the application of international regulations and environmental directives. Our methodology includes the use of an ad hoc regional (i.e., Mediterranean) algorithm for Chl concentration retrieval, also accounting for the difference between offshore (i.e., Case I) and coastal (i.e., Case II) waters. We apply the Mann-Kendall test and the Sens's method for trend estimation to the Chl concentration de-seasonalized monthly time series, as obtained from the X-11 technique. We also provide a preliminary analysis of some particular trends by evaluating their associated inter-annual variability. The high spatial resolution of our approach allows a clear identification of intense trends in those coastal waters that are affected by river outflows. We do not attempt to attribute the observed trends to specific anthropogenic events. However, the trends

  8. Mediterranean Ocean Colour Chlorophyll Trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Colella

    Full Text Available In being at the base of the marine food web, phytoplankton is particularly important for marine ecosystem functioning (e.g., biodiversity. Strong anthropization, over-exploitation of natural resources, and climate change affect the natural amount of phytoplankton and, therefore, represent a continuous threat to the biodiversity in marine waters. In particular, a concerning risks for coastal waters is the increase in nutrient inputs of terrestrial/anthropogenic origin that can lead to undesirable modifications of phytoplankton concentration (i.e., eutrophication. Monitoring chlorophyll (Chl concentration, which is a proxy of phytoplankton biomass, is an efficient tool for recording and understanding the response of the marine ecosystem to human pressures and thus for detecting eutrophication. Here, we compute Chl trends over the Mediterranean Sea by using satellite data, also highlighting the fact that remote sensing may represent an efficient and reliable solution to synoptically control the "good environmental status" (i.e., the Marine Directive to achieve Good Environmental Status of EU marine waters by 2020 and to assess the application of international regulations and environmental directives. Our methodology includes the use of an ad hoc regional (i.e., Mediterranean algorithm for Chl concentration retrieval, also accounting for the difference between offshore (i.e., Case I and coastal (i.e., Case II waters. We apply the Mann-Kendall test and the Sens's method for trend estimation to the Chl concentration de-seasonalized monthly time series, as obtained from the X-11 technique. We also provide a preliminary analysis of some particular trends by evaluating their associated inter-annual variability. The high spatial resolution of our approach allows a clear identification of intense trends in those coastal waters that are affected by river outflows. We do not attempt to attribute the observed trends to specific anthropogenic events. However

  9. An Integrated Architecture for On-Board Aircraft Engine Performance Trend Monitoring and Gas Path Fault Diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Donald L.

    2010-01-01

    Aircraft engine performance trend monitoring and gas path fault diagnostics are closely related technologies that assist operators in managing the health of their gas turbine engine assets. Trend monitoring is the process of monitoring the gradual performance change that an aircraft engine will naturally incur over time due to turbomachinery deterioration, while gas path diagnostics is the process of detecting and isolating the occurrence of any faults impacting engine flow-path performance. Today, performance trend monitoring and gas path fault diagnostic functions are performed by a combination of on-board and off-board strategies. On-board engine control computers contain logic that monitors for anomalous engine operation in real-time. Off-board ground stations are used to conduct fleet-wide engine trend monitoring and fault diagnostics based on data collected from each engine each flight. Continuing advances in avionics are enabling the migration of portions of the ground-based functionality on-board, giving rise to more sophisticated on-board engine health management capabilities. This paper reviews the conventional engine performance trend monitoring and gas path fault diagnostic architecture commonly applied today, and presents a proposed enhanced on-board architecture for future applications. The enhanced architecture gains real-time access to an expanded quantity of engine parameters, and provides advanced on-board model-based estimation capabilities. The benefits of the enhanced architecture include the real-time continuous monitoring of engine health, the early diagnosis of fault conditions, and the estimation of unmeasured engine performance parameters. A future vision to advance the enhanced architecture is also presented and discussed

  10. Quantifying trends in disease impact to produce a consistent and reproducible definition of an emerging infectious disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Sebastian; Bogich, Tiffany L; Jones, Kate E; Kilpatrick, A Marm; Daszak, Peter

    2013-01-01

    The proper allocation of public health resources for research and control requires quantification of both a disease's current burden and the trend in its impact. Infectious diseases that have been labeled as "emerging infectious diseases" (EIDs) have received heightened scientific and public attention and resources. However, the label 'emerging' is rarely backed by quantitative analysis and is often used subjectively. This can lead to over-allocation of resources to diseases that are incorrectly labelled "emerging," and insufficient allocation of resources to diseases for which evidence of an increasing or high sustained impact is strong. We suggest a simple quantitative approach, segmented regression, to characterize the trends and emergence of diseases. Segmented regression identifies one or more trends in a time series and determines the most statistically parsimonious split(s) (or joinpoints) in the time series. These joinpoints in the time series indicate time points when a change in trend occurred and may identify periods in which drivers of disease impact change. We illustrate the method by analyzing temporal patterns in incidence data for twelve diseases. This approach provides a way to classify a disease as currently emerging, re-emerging, receding, or stable based on temporal trends, as well as to pinpoint the time when the change in these trends happened. We argue that quantitative approaches to defining emergence based on the trend in impact of a disease can, with appropriate context, be used to prioritize resources for research and control. Implementing this more rigorous definition of an EID will require buy-in and enforcement from scientists, policy makers, peer reviewers and journal editors, but has the potential to improve resource allocation for global health.

  11. Spatial correlation in precipitation trends in the Brazilian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buarque, Diogo Costa; Clarke, Robin T.; Mendes, Carlos Andre Bulhoes

    2010-06-01

    A geostatistical analysis of variables derived from Amazon daily precipitation records (trends in annual precipitation totals, trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, trend in length of dry spell, trend in number of wet days per year) gave results that are consistent with those previously reported. Averaged over the Brazilian Amazon region as a whole, trends in annual maximum precipitations were slightly negative, the trend in the length of dry spell was slightly positive, and the trend in the number of wet days in the year was slightly negative. For trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, spatial correlation between trends was found to extend up to a distance equivalent to at least half a degree of latitude or longitude, with some evidence of anisotropic correlation. Time trends in annual precipitation were found to be spatially correlated up to at least ten degrees of separation, in both W-E and S-N directions. Anisotropic spatial correlation was strongly evident in time trends in length of dry spell with much stronger evidence of spatial correlation in the W-E direction, extending up to at least five degrees of separation, than in the S-N. Because the time trends analyzed are shown to be spatially correlated, it is argued that methods at present widely used to test the statistical significance of climate trends over time lead to erroneous conclusions if spatial correlation is ignored, because records from different sites are assumed to be statistically independent.

  12. Trend Estimation of Blood Glucose Level Fluctuations Based on Data Mining

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masaki Yamaguchi

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available We have fabricated calorie-calculating software that calculates and records the total calorific food intake by choosing a meal menu selected using a computer mouse. The purpose of this software was to simplify data collection throughout a person's normal life, even if they were inexperienced computer operators. Three portable commercial devices have also been prepared a blood glucose monitor, a metabolic rate monitor and a mobile-computer, and linked into the calorie-calculating software. Time-course changes of the blood glucose level, metabolic rate and food intake were measured using these devices during a 3 month period. Based on the data collected in this study we could predict blood glucose levels of the next morning (FBG by modeling using data mining. Although a large error rate was found for predicting the absolute value, conditions could be found that improved the accuracy of the predicting trends in blood glucose level fluctuations by up to 90 %. However, in order to further improve the accuracy of estimation it was necessary to obtain further details about the patients' life style or to optimise the input variables that were dependent on each patient rather than collecting data over longer periods.

  13. Share price trend based on analysis of investor’s online activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihail Dumitru SACALĂ

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The desire of modeling the influence coming from behavioral economics, representing mostly qualitative variables, requires new approaches to quantify this influence. In this paper we present an analytical method for determining the direction of the share future return using an aggregate indicator calculated based exclusively on the trend of registered variables from investor’s online activity. This online activity refers to the number and content of messages posted by investors on shares analysis dedicated web blogs.

  14. Recent shifts in Himalayan vegetation activity trends in response to climatic change and environmental drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, N. B.; Mainali, K. P.

    2016-12-01

    Climatic changes along with anthropogenic disturbances are causing dramatic ecological impacts in mid to high latitude mountain vegetation including in the Himalayas which are ecologically sensitive environments. Given the challenges associated with in situ vegetation monitoring in the Himalayas, remote sensing based quantification of vegetation dynamics can provide essential ecological information on changes in vegetation activity that may consist of alternative sequence of greening and/or browning periods. This study utilized a trend break analysis procedure for detection of monotonic as well as abrupt (either interruption or reversal) trend changes in smoothed normalized difference vegetation index satellite time-series data over the Himalayas. Overall, trend breaks in vegetation greenness showed high spatio-temporal variability in distribution considering elevation, ecoregion and land cover/use stratifications. Interrupted greening was spatially most dominant in all Himalayan ecoregions followed by abrupt browning. Areas showing trend reversal and monotonic trends appeared minority. Trend type distribution was strongly dependent on elevation as majority of greening (with or without interruption) occurred at lower elevation areas at higher elevation were dominantly. Ecoregion based stratification of trend types highlighted some exception to this elevational dependence as high altitude ecoregions of western Himalayas showed significantly less browning compared to the ecoregions in eastern Himalaya. Land cover/use based analysis of trend distribution showed that interrupted greening was most dominant in closed needleleafed forest following by rainfed cropland and mosaic croplands while interrupted browning most dominant in closed to open herbaceous vegetation found at higher elevation areas followed by closed needleleafed forest and closed to open broad leafed evergreen forests. Spatial analysis of trend break timing showed that for majority of areas experiencing

  15. Climate trends and behaviour of drought indices based on precipitation and evapotranspiration in Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Paulo

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Distinction between drought and aridity is crucial to understand water scarcity processes. Drought indices are used for drought identification and drought severity characterisation. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI are the most known drought indices. In this study, they are compared with the modified PDSI for Mediterranean conditions (MedPDSI and the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI. MedPDSI results from the soil water balance of an olive crop, thus real evapotranspiration is considered, while SPEI uses potential (climatic evapotranspiration. Similarly to the SPI, SPEI can be computed at various time scales. Aiming at understanding possible impacts of climate change, prior to compare the drought indices, a trend analysis relative to precipitation and temperature in 27 weather stations of Portugal was performed for the period 1941 to 2006. A trend for temperature increase was observed for some weather stations and trends for decreasing precipitation in March and increasing in October were also observed for some locations. Comparisons of the SPI and SPEI at 9- and 12-month time scales, the PDSI and MedPDSI were performed for the same stations and period. SPI and SPEI produce similar results for the same time scales concerning drought occurrence and severity. PDSI and MedPDSI correlate well between them and the same happened for SPI and SPEI. PDSI and MedPDSI identify more severe droughts than SPI or SPEI and identify drought occurrence earlier than these indices. This behaviour is likely to be related with the fact that a water balance is performed with PDSI and MedPDSI, which better approaches the supply-demand balance.

  16. Impact analysis of the time trend of TBR and irradiation damage assessment of HCSB blanket for CFETR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeng, Qin, E-mail: zengqin@ustc.edu.cn; Chen, Hongli; Lv, Zhongliang; Pan, Lei; Zhang, Haoran; Shi, Wei

    2017-01-15

    Chinese Fusion Engineering Testing Reactor (CFETR) is a test tokamak reactor to bridge the gap between ITER and future fusion power plants and to demonstrate generation of fusion power in China. In fusion power plants, tritium is generated from the reaction of neutron and Lithium. One of the missions of CFETR is the full cycle of tritium self-sufficiency. For the mission, a Helium Cooled Solid Breeder blanket (HCSB) was proposed for CFETR and its conceptual design has been carried out. In order to assess the capacity of the tritium breeding and irradiation damage of first wall of the HCSB blanket during the 8 years’ engineering test stage, this paper presents the time trend of TBR analysis and irradiation damage assessment of HCSB blanket based on the three-dimensional (3D) neutronics model which is created by McCad. In the 3D neutronics model, the outboard blanket on equatorial plane is described based on the detailed 3D engineering model. The calculations were performed by MCNP and FISPACT with FENDL/2.1 data library. The impact analysis of the thickness of coolant plates (CP) and the structural material content in CPs to the TBR is assessment.

  17. Trends in prevalence of leisure time physical activity and inactivity: results from Australian National Health Surveys 1989 to 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chau, Josephine; Chey, Tien; Burks-Young, Sarah; Engelen, Lina; Bauman, Adrian

    2017-12-01

    To examine trends in leisure time physical activity and inactivity in Australians aged 15 years or older from 1989 to 2011. We used data from six Australian National Health Surveys conducted from 1989/90 to 2011/12 in which physical activity was assessed using comparable questions. Analyses examined trends in the prevalence of sufficient physical activity (≥150 minutes/week moderate-to-vigorous physical activity) and of inactivity (benefits from sufficient physical activity. Maintenance of consistent physical activity questions in future National Health Surveys will facilitate long term tracking of physical activity levels in the Australian population. © 2017 The Authors.

  18. Patterns of breast cancer mortality trends in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaro, Joana; Severo, Milton; Vilela, Sofia; Fonseca, Sérgio; Fontes, Filipa; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lunet, Nuno

    2013-06-01

    To identify patterns of variation in breast cancer mortality in Europe (1980-2010), using a model-based approach. Mortality data were obtained from the World Health Organization database and mixed models were used to describe the time trends in the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR). Model-based clustering was used to identify clusters of countries with homogeneous variation in ASMR. Three patterns were identified. Patterns 1 and 2 are characterized by stable or slightly increasing trends in ASMR in the first half of the period analysed, and a clear decline is observed thereafter; in pattern 1 the median of the ASMR is higher, and the highest rates were achieved sooner. Pattern 3 is characterised by a rapid increase in mortality until 1999, declining slowly thereafter. This study provides a general model for the description and interpretation of the variation in breast cancer mortality in Europe, based in three main patterns. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Prediction of HIV-1 sensitivity to broadly neutralizing antibodies shows a trend towards resistance over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hake, Anna; Pfeifer, Nico

    2017-10-01

    Treatment with broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) has proven effective against HIV-1 infections in humanized mice, non-human primates, and humans. Due to the high mutation rate of HIV-1, resistance testing of the patient's viral strains to the bNAbs is still inevitable. So far, bNAb resistance can only be tested in expensive and time-consuming neutralization experiments. Here, we introduce well-performing computational models that predict the neutralization response of HIV-1 to bNAbs given only the envelope sequence of the virus. Using non-linear support vector machines based on a string kernel, the models learnt even the important binding sites of bNAbs with more complex epitopes, i.e., the CD4 binding site targeting bNAbs, proving thereby the biological relevance of the models. To increase the interpretability of the models, we additionally provide a new kind of motif logo for each query sequence, visualizing those residues of the test sequence that influenced the prediction outcome the most. Moreover, we predicted the neutralization sensitivity of around 34,000 HIV-1 samples from different time points to a broad range of bNAbs, enabling the first analysis of HIV resistance to bNAbs on a global scale. The analysis showed for many of the bNAbs a trend towards antibody resistance over time, which had previously only been discovered for a small non-representative subset of the global HIV-1 population.

  20. Identifying trends in climate: an application to the cenozoic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Gordon R.

    1998-05-01

    The recent literature on trending in climate has raised several issues, whether trends should be modeled as deterministic or stochastic, whether trends are nonlinear, and the relative merits of statistical models versus models based on physics. This article models trending since the late Cretaceous. This 68 million-year interval is selected because the reliability of tests for trending is critically dependent on the length of time spanned by the data. Two main hypotheses are tested, that the trend has been caused primarily by CO2 forcing, and that it reflects a variety of forcing factors which can be approximated by statistical methods. The CO2 data is obtained from model simulations. Several widely-used statistical models are found to be inadequate. ARIMA methods parameterize too much of the short-term variation, and do not identify low frequency movements. Further, the unit root in the ARIMA process does not predict the long-term path of temperature. Spectral methods also have little ability to predict temperature at long horizons. Instead, the statistical trend is estimated using a nonlinear smoothing filter. Both of these paradigms make it possible to model climate as a cointegrated process, in which temperature can wander quite far from the trend path in the intermediate term, but converges back over longer horizons. Comparing the forecasting properties of the two trend models demonstrates that the optimal forecasting model includes CO2 forcing and a parametric representation of the nonlinear variability in climate.

  1. Holocene Faunal Trends in West Siberia and Their Causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gashev, S. N.; Aleshina, A. O.; Zuban, I. A.; Lupinos, M. Y.; Mardonova, L. B.; Mitropolskiy, M. G.; Selyukov, A. G.; Sorokina, N. V.; Stolbov, V. A.; Shapovalov, S. I.

    2017-12-01

    Based on an analysis of the transformation of vertebrate and invertebrate fauna of West Siberia in the Holocene, the classification and periodization of the main faunal trends are presented. Against the background of changing environmental conditions, the key regularities of the faunal dynamics, and the ways some species penetrate into the territory of the region and others disappear from the beginning of the Holocene to the present time have been indicated. Three global and four fluctuating trends are identified. The anthropogenic trend is ascertained separately. A conclusion is made about the prevailing causes of these changes, associated primarily with periodic climatic processes of different levels, determined by planetary geological and cosmic cycles. It is emphasized that, in the historical period, anthropogenic factors play a significant role in the regional faunal dynamics.

  2. Seasonal trend analysis and ARIMA modeling of relative humidity and wind speed time series around Yamula Dam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eymen, Abdurrahman; Köylü, Ümran

    2018-02-01

    Local climate change is determined by analysis of long-term recorded meteorological data. In the statistical analysis of the meteorological data, the Mann-Kendall rank test, which is one of the non-parametrical tests, has been used; on the other hand, for determining the power of the trend, Theil-Sen method has been used on the data obtained from 16 meteorological stations. The stations cover the provinces of Kayseri, Sivas, Yozgat, and Nevşehir in the Central Anatolia region of Turkey. Changes in land-use affect local climate. Dams are structures that cause major changes on the land. Yamula Dam is located 25 km northwest of Kayseri. The dam has huge water body which is approximately 85 km2. The mentioned tests have been used for detecting the presence of any positive or negative trend in meteorological data. The meteorological data in relation to the seasonal average, maximum, and minimum values of the relative humidity and seasonal average wind speed have been organized as time series and the tests have been conducted accordingly. As a result of these tests, the following have been identified: increase was observed in minimum relative humidity values in the spring, summer, and autumn seasons. As for the seasonal average wind speed, decrease was detected for nine stations in all seasons, whereas increase was observed in four stations. After the trend analysis, pre-dam mean relative humidity time series were modeled with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) model which is statistical modeling tool. Post-dam relative humidity values were predicted by ARIMA models.

  3. Do economic players shape up fashion trends?

    OpenAIRE

    Hasan, Syed Akif; Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz; Osman, Ms. Amber

    2012-01-01

    The behavior of following the most in vogue and admired styles of dressing has been there since the ancient times. With time, people have moved on with the rapid change in the surroundings. Both the genders acknowledge fashion. Fashion is an extension of regular clothing. This paper investigates the role of economical players which includes per capita income and inflations in shaping up the various trends/ fashion trends/ trends in clothing and their consumptions for Pakistan, India, United S...

  4. Recent trends in analytical procedures in forensic toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Bocxlaer, Jan F

    2005-12-01

    Forensic toxicology is a very demanding discipline,heavily dependent on good analytical techniques. That is why new trends appear continuously. In the past years. LC-MS has revolutionized target compound analysis and has become the trend, also in toxicology. In LC-MS screening analysis, things are less straightforward and several approaches exist. One promising approach based on accurate LC-MSTOF mass measurements and elemental formula based library searches is discussed. This way of screening has already proven its applicability but at the same time it became obvious that a single accurate mass measurement lacks some specificity when using large compound libraries. CE too is a reemerging approach. The increasingly polar and ionic molecules encountered make it a worthwhile addition to e.g. LC, as illustrated for the analysis of GHB. A third recent trend is the use of MALDI mass spectrometry for small molecules. It is promising for its ease-of-use and high throughput. Unfortunately, re-ports of disappointment but also accomplishment, e.g. the quantitative analysis of LSD as discussed here, alternate, and it remains to be seen whether MALDI really will establish itself. Indeed, not all new trends will prove themselves but the mere fact that many appear in the world of analytical toxicology nowadays is, in itself, encouraging for the future of (forensic) toxicology.

  5. Geo-mapping of time trends in childhood caries risk a method for assessment of preventive care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Strömberg Ulf

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dental caries is unevenly distributed within populations with a higher burden in low socio-economy groups. Several attempts have been made to allocate resources to those that need them the most; there is a need for convenient approaches to population-based monitoring of caries risk over time. The aim of this study was to develop the geo-map concept, addressing time trends in caries risk, and demonstrate the novel approach by analyzing epidemiological data from preschool residents in the region of Halland, Sweden. Methods The study population consisted of 9,973 (2006 and 10,927 (2010 children between 3 to 6years of age (~77% of the eligible population from whom caries data were obtained. Reported dmfs>0 for a child was considered as the primary caries outcome. Each study individual was geo-coded with respect to his/her residence parish (66 parishes in the region. Smoothed caries risk geo-maps, along with corresponding statistical certainty geo-maps, were produced by using the free software Rapid Inquiry Facility and the ESRI ArcGIS system. Parish-level socioeconomic data were available. Results The overall proportion of caries-free (dmfs=0 children improved from 84.0% in 2006 to 88.6% in 2010. The ratio of maximum and minimum (parish-level smoothed relative risks (SmRRs increased from 1.76/0.44=4.0 in 2006 to 2.37/0.33=7.2 in 2010, which indicated an increased geographical polarization of early childhood caries in the population. Eight parishes showed evidential, positional changes in caries risk between 2006 and 2010; their corresponding SmRRs and statistical certainty ranks changed markedly. No considerable parallel changes in parish-level socioeconomic characteristics were seen during the same time period. Conclusion Geo-maps based on caries risk can be used to monitor changes in caries risk over time. Thus, geo-mapping offers a convenient tool for evaluating the effectiveness of tailored health promotion and preventive

  6. Mortality related to tuberculosis-HIV/AIDS co-infection in Brazil, 2000-2011: epidemiological patterns and time trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricélia da Silveira Lima

    Full Text Available Abstract: Co-infection of tuberculosis (TB-HIV/AIDS is a persistent public health problem in Brazil. This study describes epidemiological patterns and time trends of mortality related to TB-HIV/AIDS co-infection. Based on mortality data from 2000-2011 (almost 12.5 million deaths, 19,815 deaths related to co-infection were analyzed. The average age-adjusted mortality rate was 0.97 deaths/100,000 inhabitants. The highest mortality rates were found among males, those in economically productive age groups, black race/color and residents of the South region. There was a significant reduction in the mortality coefficient at the national level (annual average percent change: -1.7%; 95%CI: -2.4; -1.0, with different patterns among regions: increases in the North, Northeast and Central regions, a reduction in the Southeast and a stabilization in the South. The strategic integration of TB-HIV/AIDS control programmes is fundamental to reduce the burden of mortality related to co-infection in Brazil.

  7. A retrospective time trend study of PBDEs and PCBs in human milk from the Faroe Islands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faengstroem, B.; Strid, A.; Athanassiadis, I.; Bergman, Aa. [Dept. of Environmental Chemistry, Stockholm Univ. (Sweden); Grandjean, P. [Inst. of Public Health, Univ. of Southern Denmark, Odense (Denmark); Weihe, P. [Faroese Hospital System, Torshavn (Denmark)

    2004-09-15

    The Faroe Islands are located quite far from the European continent and from industrial sources of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). However, the Faroese population may be exposed to these substances through contaminated food, via goods and products in their homes, and in their work environment. High trophic level marine species, including pilot whale and seabirds, such as fulmars, have been shown to accumulate high concentrations of organohalogen substances (OHS) like PCBs and PBDEs. Possibly due to dietary differences, wide differences exist in regard to PCB exposures among the Faroese. In a birth cohort from 1987, milk pools contained relatively high PCB concentrations between 1.9-2.5 {mu}g/g lipid weight (l.w.). In another cohort from 1994, serum from pregnant Faroese women was analyzed for PCB and OH-PCBs, with results ranging from 0.15 to 22 {mu}g/g l.w. and 0.02 to 1.8 {mu}g/g l.w., respectively. In a time trend study for PBDEs and PCBs in human milk from Sweden from the early 1970s to 1997, the PBDE concentrations showed a significant increase while the PCB levels showed a decrease. Human milk samples from 1997 to 2000 indicate a decrease for the PBDEs, mainly due to reduced concentrations of BDE-47. A similar trend has been seen in human milk from Japan. In Norway, PBDE in human milk increased from 1986 to 2001, with similar concentration levels as reported in Sweden and Japan. In the United States the PBDE levels reported in human milk are about 4 times higher than those seen in Europe and Japan. The aim of the present study was to determine PBDE and PCB concentrations in a temporal trend study with samples from 1987-1999 in human milk samples from the Faroe Islands.

  8. Landsat-based trend analysis of lake dynamics across northern permafrost regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nitze, Ingmar; Grosse, Guido; Jones, Benjamin M.; Arp, Christopher D.; Ulrich, Mathias; Federov, Alexander; Veremeeva, Alexandra

    2017-01-01

    Lakes are a ubiquitous landscape feature in northern permafrost regions. They have a strong impact on carbon, energy and water fluxes and can be quite responsive to climate change. The monitoring of lake change in northern high latitudes, at a sufficiently accurate spatial and temporal resolution, is crucial for understanding the underlying processes driving lake change. To date, lake change studies in permafrost regions were based on a variety of different sources, image acquisition periods and single snapshots, and localized analysis, which hinders the comparison of different regions. Here we present, a methodology based on machine-learning based classification of robust trends of multi-spectral indices of Landsat data (TM,ETM+, OLI) and object-based lake detection, to analyze and compare the individual, local and regional lake dynamics of four different study sites (Alaska North Slope, Western Alaska, Central Yakutia, Kolyma Lowland) in the northern permafrost zone from 1999 to 2014. Regional patterns of lake area change on the Alaska North Slope (-0.69%), Western Alaska (-2.82%), and Kolyma Lowland (-0.51%) largely include increases due to thermokarst lake expansion, but more dominant lake area losses due to catastrophic lake drainage events. In contrast, Central Yakutia showed a remarkable increase in lake area of 48.48%, likely resulting from warmer and wetter climate conditions over the latter half of the study period. Within all study regions, variability in lake dynamics was associated with differences in permafrost characteristics, landscape position (i.e. upland vs. lowland), and surface geology. With the global availability of Landsat data and a consistent methodology for processing the input data derived from robust trends of multi-spectral indices, we demonstrate a transferability, scalability and consistency of lake change analysis within the northern permafrost region.

  9. Trend patterns in global sea surface temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barbosa, S.M.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2009-01-01

    Isolating long-term trend in sea surface temperature (SST) from El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) variability is fundamental for climate studies. In the present study, trend-empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, a robust space-time method for extracting trend patterns, is applied to iso...

  10. Generating Insights from Trends in Newborn Care Practices from Prospective Population-Based Studies: Examples from India, Bangladesh and Nepal.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonya Crowe

    Full Text Available Delivery of essential newborn care is key to reducing neonatal mortality rates, yet coverage of protective birth practices remains incomplete and variable, with or without skilled attendance. Evidence of changes over time in newborn care provision, disaggregated by care practice and delivery type, can be used by policymakers to review efforts to reduce mortality. We examine such trends in four areas using control arm trial data.We analysed data from the control arms of cluster randomised controlled trials in Bangladesh (27 553 births, eastern India (8 939, Dhanusha, Nepal (15 344 and Makwanpur, Nepal (6 765 over the period 2001-2011. For each trial, we calculated the observed proportion of attended births and the coverage of WHO essential newborn care practices by year, adjusted for clustering and stratification. To explore factors contributing to the observed trends, we then analysed expected trends due only to observed shifts in birth attendance, accounted for stratification, delivery type and statistically significant interaction terms, and examined disaggregated trends in care practice coverage by delivery type. Attended births increased over the study periods in all areas from very low rates, reaching a maximum of only 30% of deliveries. Newborn care practice trends showed marked heterogeneity within and between areas. Adjustment for stratification, birth attendance and interaction revealed that care practices could change in opposite directions over time and/or between delivery types - e.g. in Bangladesh hygienic cord-cutting and skin-to-skin contact fell in attended deliveries but not home deliveries, whereas in India birth attendant hand-washing rose for institutional deliveries but fell for home deliveries.Coverage of many essential newborn care practices is improving, albeit slowly and unevenly across sites and delivery type. Time trend analyses of birth patterns and essential newborn care practices can inform policy-makers about

  11. Generating Insights from Trends in Newborn Care Practices from Prospective Population-Based Studies: Examples from India, Bangladesh and Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowe, Sonya; Prost, Audrey; Hossen, Munir; Azad, Kishwar; Kuddus, Abdul; Roy, Swati; Nair, Nirmala; Tripathy, Prasanta; Saville, Naomi; Sen, Aman; Sikorski, Catherine; Manandhar, Dharma; Costello, Anthony; Pagel, Christina

    2015-01-01

    Delivery of essential newborn care is key to reducing neonatal mortality rates, yet coverage of protective birth practices remains incomplete and variable, with or without skilled attendance. Evidence of changes over time in newborn care provision, disaggregated by care practice and delivery type, can be used by policymakers to review efforts to reduce mortality. We examine such trends in four areas using control arm trial data. We analysed data from the control arms of cluster randomised controlled trials in Bangladesh (27 553 births), eastern India (8 939), Dhanusha, Nepal (15 344) and Makwanpur, Nepal (6 765) over the period 2001-2011. For each trial, we calculated the observed proportion of attended births and the coverage of WHO essential newborn care practices by year, adjusted for clustering and stratification. To explore factors contributing to the observed trends, we then analysed expected trends due only to observed shifts in birth attendance, accounted for stratification, delivery type and statistically significant interaction terms, and examined disaggregated trends in care practice coverage by delivery type. Attended births increased over the study periods in all areas from very low rates, reaching a maximum of only 30% of deliveries. Newborn care practice trends showed marked heterogeneity within and between areas. Adjustment for stratification, birth attendance and interaction revealed that care practices could change in opposite directions over time and/or between delivery types - e.g. in Bangladesh hygienic cord-cutting and skin-to-skin contact fell in attended deliveries but not home deliveries, whereas in India birth attendant hand-washing rose for institutional deliveries but fell for home deliveries. Coverage of many essential newborn care practices is improving, albeit slowly and unevenly across sites and delivery type. Time trend analyses of birth patterns and essential newborn care practices can inform policy-makers about effective

  12. Generating Insights from Trends in Newborn Care Practices from Prospective Population-Based Studies: Examples from India, Bangladesh and Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowe, Sonya; Prost, Audrey; Hossen, Munir; Azad, Kishwar; Kuddus, Abdul; Roy, Swati; Nair, Nirmala; Tripathy, Prasanta; Saville, Naomi; Sen, Aman; Sikorski, Catherine; Manandhar, Dharma; Costello, Anthony; Pagel, Christina

    2015-01-01

    Background Delivery of essential newborn care is key to reducing neonatal mortality rates, yet coverage of protective birth practices remains incomplete and variable, with or without skilled attendance. Evidence of changes over time in newborn care provision, disaggregated by care practice and delivery type, can be used by policymakers to review efforts to reduce mortality. We examine such trends in four areas using control arm trial data. Methods and Findings We analysed data from the control arms of cluster randomised controlled trials in Bangladesh (27 553 births), eastern India (8 939), Dhanusha, Nepal (15 344) and Makwanpur, Nepal (6 765) over the period 2001–2011. For each trial, we calculated the observed proportion of attended births and the coverage of WHO essential newborn care practices by year, adjusted for clustering and stratification. To explore factors contributing to the observed trends, we then analysed expected trends due only to observed shifts in birth attendance, accounted for stratification, delivery type and statistically significant interaction terms, and examined disaggregated trends in care practice coverage by delivery type. Attended births increased over the study periods in all areas from very low rates, reaching a maximum of only 30% of deliveries. Newborn care practice trends showed marked heterogeneity within and between areas. Adjustment for stratification, birth attendance and interaction revealed that care practices could change in opposite directions over time and/or between delivery types – e.g. in Bangladesh hygienic cord-cutting and skin-to-skin contact fell in attended deliveries but not home deliveries, whereas in India birth attendant hand-washing rose for institutional deliveries but fell for home deliveries. Conclusions Coverage of many essential newborn care practices is improving, albeit slowly and unevenly across sites and delivery type. Time trend analyses of birth patterns and essential newborn care practices

  13. A comparison of heat wave climatologies and trends in China based on multiple definitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Qinglong; Jiang, Zhihong; Kong, Lei; Wu, Zhiwei; Bao, Yutao; Kang, Shichang; Pepin, Nick

    2017-06-01

    Heat waves (HWs) can have disastrous impacts on human activities and natural systems, and are one of the current foci of scientific research, particularly in the context of global warming. However, there is no standard definition of a HW, which makes assessment of temporal trends a challenge. In this study, based on daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature, and relative humidity datasets from China Meteorological Administration, the patterns, trends and variations of HW in China during 1961-2014 are investigated. Sixteen previously published HW indices (HIs) are calculated, which are divided into two types using relative and absolute threshold temperatures, respectively. During 1961-2014, both relative and absolute threshold HIs show the highest number of HW in Jianghua and South China, geographically consistent with the climate characteristics of China. The majority of HIs shows negative/positive trends of HW days before/after 1990 over the whole of China, but especially in Jianghua and South China, which reflects rapid warming since 1990. There are significant correlations among different HIs in the same type (both absolute and relative), but correlations are weak between relative and absolute threshold HIs. Because relative and absolute HIs show contrasting trends, the choice of HI is therefore critical for future analysis

  14. Trends in size classified particle number concentration in subtropical Brisbane, Australia, based on a 5 year study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mejía, J. F.; Wraith, D.; Mengersen, K.; Morawska, L.

    Particle number size distribution data in the range from 0.015 to 0.630 μm were collected over a 5-year period in the central business district (CBD) of Brisbane, Australia. Particle size distribution was summarised by total number concentration and number median diameter (NMD) as well as the number concentration of the 0.015-0.030 ( N15-30), 0.030-0.050 ( N30-50), 0.050-0.100 ( N50-100), 0.100-0.300 ( N100-300) and 0.300-0.630 ( N300-630) μm size classes. Morning (6:00-10:00) and afternoon (16:00-19:00) measurements, the former representing fresh traffic emissions (based on the local meteorological conditions) and the latter well-mixed emissions from the CBD, during weekdays were extracted and the respective monthly mean values were estimated for time series analysis. For all size fractions, average morning concentrations were about 1.5 higher than in the afternoon whereas NMD did not vary between the morning and afternoon. The trend and seasonal components were extracted through weighted linear regression models, using the monthly variance as weights. Only the morning measurements exhibited significant trends. During this time of the day, total particle number increased by 105.7% and the increase was greater for larger particles, resulting in a shift in NMD by 7.9%. Although no seasonal component was detected the evidence against it remained weak due to the limitations of the database.

  15. Trends in Classroom Observation Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casabianca, Jodi M.; Lockwood, J. R.; McCaffrey, Daniel F.

    2015-01-01

    Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System-Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from…

  16. Breakthrough dynamics of s-metolachlor metabolites in drinking water wells: Transport pathways and time to trend reversal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farlin, Julien; Gallé, Tom; Bayerle, Michael; Pittois, Denis; Köppchen, Stephan; Krause, Martina; Hofmann, Diana

    2018-06-01

    We present the results of a two years study on the contamination of the Luxembourg Sandstone aquifer by metolachlor-ESA and metolachlor-OXA, two major transformation products of s-metolachlor. The aim of the study was twofold: (i) assess whether elevated concentrations of both transformation products (up to 1000 ng/l) were due to fast flow breakthough events of short duration or the signs of a contamination of the entire aquifer and (ii) estimate the time to trend reversal once the parent compound was withdrawn from the market. These two questions were addressed by a combined use of groundwater monitoring, laboratory experiments and numerical simulations of the fate of the degradation products in the subsurface. Twelve springs were sampled weekly over an eighteen month period, and the degradation rates of both the parent compound and its transformation products were measured on a representative soil in the laboratory using a radiolabeled precursor. Modelling with the numeric code PEARL simulating pesticide fate in soil coupled to a simple transfer function model for the aquifer compartment, and calibrated from the field and laboratory data, predicts a significant damping by the aquifer of the peaks of concentration of both metolachlor-ESA and -OXA leached from the soil. The time to trend reversal following the ban of s-metolachlor in spring protection zones should be observed before the end of the decade, while the return of contaminant concentrations below the drinking water limit of 100 ng/l however is expected to last up to twelve years. The calculated contribution to total water discharge of the fast-flow component from cropland and short-circuiting the aquifer was small in most springs (median of 1.2%), but sufficient to cause additional peaks of concentration of several hundred nanograms per litre in spring water. These peaks are superimposed on the more steady contamination sustained by the base flow, and should cease immediately once application of the

  17. Googling trends in conservation biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proulx, Raphaël; Massicotte, Philippe; Pépino, Marc

    2014-02-01

    Web-crawling approaches, that is, automated programs data mining the internet to obtain information about a particular process, have recently been proposed for monitoring early signs of ecosystem degradation or for establishing crop calendars. However, lack of a clear conceptual and methodological framework has prevented the development of such approaches within the field of conservation biology. Our objective was to illustrate how Google Trends, a freely accessible web-crawling engine, can be used to track changes in timing of biological processes, spatial distribution of invasive species, and level of public awareness about key conservation issues. Google Trends returns the number of internet searches that were made for a keyword in a given region of the world over a defined period. Using data retrieved online for 13 countries, we exemplify how Google Trends can be used to study the timing of biological processes, such as the seasonal recurrence of pollen release or mosquito outbreaks across a latitudinal gradient. We mapped the spatial extent of results from Google Trends for 5 invasive species in the United States and found geographic patterns in invasions that are consistent with their coarse-grained distribution at state levels. From 2004 through 2012, Google Trends showed that the level of public interest and awareness about conservation issues related to ecosystem services, biodiversity, and climate change increased, decreased, and followed both trends, respectively. Finally, to further the development of research approaches at the interface of conservation biology, collective knowledge, and environmental management, we developed an algorithm that allows the rapid retrieval of Google Trends data. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  18. Food Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwenk, Nancy E.

    1991-01-01

    An overall perspective on trends in food consumption is presented. Nutrition awareness is at an all-time high; consumption is influenced by changes in disposable income, availability of convenience foods, smaller household size, and an increasing proportion of ethnic minorities in the population. (18 references) (LB)

  19. Effects of lek count protocols on greater sage-grouse population trend estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monroe, Adrian; Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.

    2016-01-01

    Annual counts of males displaying at lek sites are an important tool for monitoring greater sage-grouse populations (Centrocercus urophasianus), but seasonal and diurnal variation in lek attendance may increase variance and bias of trend analyses. Recommendations for protocols to reduce observation error have called for restricting lek counts to within 30 minutes of sunrise, but this may limit the number of lek counts available for analysis, particularly from years before monitoring was widely standardized. Reducing the temporal window for conducting lek counts also may constrain the ability of agencies to monitor leks efficiently. We used lek count data collected across Wyoming during 1995−2014 to investigate the effect of lek counts conducted between 30 minutes before and 30, 60, or 90 minutes after sunrise on population trend estimates. We also evaluated trends across scales relevant to management, including statewide, within Working Group Areas and Core Areas, and for individual leks. To further evaluate accuracy and precision of trend estimates from lek count protocols, we used simulations based on a lek attendance model and compared simulated and estimated values of annual rate of change in population size (λ) from scenarios of varying numbers of leks, lek count timing, and count frequency (counts/lek/year). We found that restricting analyses to counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise generally did not improve precision of population trend estimates, although differences among timings increased as the number of leks and count frequency decreased. Lek attendance declined >30 minutes after sunrise, but simulations indicated that including lek counts conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise can increase the number of leks monitored compared to trend estimates based on counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. This increase in leks monitored resulted in greater precision of estimates without reducing accuracy. Increasing count

  20. Time trend of clinical cases of Lyme disease in two hospitals in Belgium, 2000-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Keukeleire, Mathilde; Vanwambeke, Sophie O; Kabamba, Benoît; Belkhir, Leila; Pierre, Philippe; Luyasu, Victor; Robert, Annie

    2017-12-05

    As several studies indicated an increase in Lyme disease (LD), notably in neighbouring countries, concerns have arisen regarding the evolution of Lyme disease in Belgium. In order to confirm or infirm the increase of LD in Belgium, we focused on hospital admissions of patients diagnosed with LD between 2000 and 2013 based on hospital admission databases from two hospitals in Belgium. Hospital databases are a stable recording system. We did a retrospective analysis of the medical files of patients hospitalized with Lyme disease in two Belgian hospitals between 2000 and 2013. The annual number of cases of LD for the two studied Belgian hospitals remained stable between 2000 and 2013, ranging from 1 for the Cliniques universitaires Saint-Luc to 15 for the the Clinique Saint-Pierre. No increasing trend were noted in the estimated annual incidence rate but the average estimated annual incidence rate was higher for the hospital Saint-Pierre (8.1 ± 3.7 per 100,000 inhabitants) than Saint-Luc (2.2 ± 1.5 per 100,000 inhabitants). The number of hospital cases of LD peaked between June and November. Based on hospital admissions with LD, no increasing trend was observed for the period 2000-2013 in the two studied Belgian hospitals. This is in line with other studies carried out in Belgium.

  1. The Detection of Emerging Trends Using Wikipedia Traffic Data and Context Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirko Kämpf

    Full Text Available Can online media predict new and emerging trends, since there is a relationship between trends in society and their representation in online systems? While several recent studies have used Google Trends as the leading online information source to answer corresponding research questions, we focus on the online encyclopedia Wikipedia often used for deeper topical reading. Wikipedia grants open access to all traffic data and provides lots of additional (semantic information in a context network besides single keywords. Specifically, we suggest and study context-normalized and time-dependent measures for a topic's importance based on page-view time series of Wikipedia articles in different languages and articles related to them by internal links. As an example, we present a study of the recently emerging Big Data market with a focus on the Hadoop ecosystem, and compare the capabilities of Wikipedia versus Google in predicting its popularity and life cycles. To support further applications, we have developed an open web platform to share results of Wikipedia analytics, providing context-rich and language-independent relevance measures for emerging trends.

  2. The Detection of Emerging Trends Using Wikipedia Traffic Data and Context Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kämpf, Mirko; Tessenow, Eric; Kenett, Dror Y; Kantelhardt, Jan W

    2015-01-01

    Can online media predict new and emerging trends, since there is a relationship between trends in society and their representation in online systems? While several recent studies have used Google Trends as the leading online information source to answer corresponding research questions, we focus on the online encyclopedia Wikipedia often used for deeper topical reading. Wikipedia grants open access to all traffic data and provides lots of additional (semantic) information in a context network besides single keywords. Specifically, we suggest and study context-normalized and time-dependent measures for a topic's importance based on page-view time series of Wikipedia articles in different languages and articles related to them by internal links. As an example, we present a study of the recently emerging Big Data market with a focus on the Hadoop ecosystem, and compare the capabilities of Wikipedia versus Google in predicting its popularity and life cycles. To support further applications, we have developed an open web platform to share results of Wikipedia analytics, providing context-rich and language-independent relevance measures for emerging trends.

  3. The Detection of Emerging Trends Using Wikipedia Traffic Data and Context Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kämpf, Mirko; Tessenow, Eric; Kenett, Dror Y.; Kantelhardt, Jan W.

    2015-01-01

    Can online media predict new and emerging trends, since there is a relationship between trends in society and their representation in online systems? While several recent studies have used Google Trends as the leading online information source to answer corresponding research questions, we focus on the online encyclopedia Wikipedia often used for deeper topical reading. Wikipedia grants open access to all traffic data and provides lots of additional (semantic) information in a context network besides single keywords. Specifically, we suggest and study context-normalized and time-dependent measures for a topic’s importance based on page-view time series of Wikipedia articles in different languages and articles related to them by internal links. As an example, we present a study of the recently emerging Big Data market with a focus on the Hadoop ecosystem, and compare the capabilities of Wikipedia versus Google in predicting its popularity and life cycles. To support further applications, we have developed an open web platform to share results of Wikipedia analytics, providing context-rich and language-independent relevance measures for emerging trends. PMID:26720074

  4. Chrono-nutrition: a review of current evidence from observational studies on global trends in time-of-day of energy intake and its association with obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almoosawi, S; Vingeliene, S; Karagounis, L G; Pot, G K

    2016-11-01

    The importance of the circadian rhythm in regulating human food intake behaviour and metabolism has long been recognised. However, little is known as to how energy intake is distributed over the day in existing populations, and its potential association with obesity. The present review describes global trends in time-of-day of energy intake in the general population based on data from cross-sectional surveys and longitudinal cohorts. Evidence of the association between time-of-day of energy intake and obesity is also summarised. Overall, there were a limited number of cross-sectional surveys and longitudinal cohorts that provided data on time-of-day of energy intake. In the identified studies, a wide variation in time-of-day of energy intake was observed, with patterns of energy distribution varying greatly by country and geographical area. In relation to obesity, eight cross-sectional surveys and two longitudinal cohorts were identified. The association between time-of-day of energy intake and obesity varied widely, with several studies reporting a positive link between evening energy intake and obesity. In conclusion, the current review summarises global trends in time-of-day of energy intake. The large variations across countries and global regions could have important implications to health, emphasising the need to understand the socio-environmental factors guiding such differences in eating patterns. Evidence of the association between time-of-day of energy intake and BMI also varied. Further larger scale collaborations between various countries and regions are needed to sum data from existing surveys and cohorts, and guide our understanding of the role of chrono-nutrition in health.

  5. Regional trends in short-duration precipitation extremes: a flexible multivariate monotone quantile regression approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannon, Alex

    2017-04-01

    Estimating historical trends in short-duration rainfall extremes at regional and local scales is challenging due to low signal-to-noise ratios and the limited availability of homogenized observational data. In addition to being of scientific interest, trends in rainfall extremes are of practical importance, as their presence calls into question the stationarity assumptions that underpin traditional engineering and infrastructure design practice. Even with these fundamental challenges, increasingly complex questions are being asked about time series of extremes. For instance, users may not only want to know whether or not rainfall extremes have changed over time, they may also want information on the modulation of trends by large-scale climate modes or on the nonstationarity of trends (e.g., identifying hiatus periods or periods of accelerating positive trends). Efforts have thus been devoted to the development and application of more robust and powerful statistical estimators for regional and local scale trends. While a standard nonparametric method like the regional Mann-Kendall test, which tests for the presence of monotonic trends (i.e., strictly non-decreasing or non-increasing changes), makes fewer assumptions than parametric methods and pools information from stations within a region, it is not designed to visualize detected trends, include information from covariates, or answer questions about the rate of change in trends. As a remedy, monotone quantile regression (MQR) has been developed as a nonparametric alternative that can be used to estimate a common monotonic trend in extremes at multiple stations. Quantile regression makes efficient use of data by directly estimating conditional quantiles based on information from all rainfall data in a region, i.e., without having to precompute the sample quantiles. The MQR method is also flexible and can be used to visualize and analyze the nonlinearity of the detected trend. However, it is fundamentally a

  6. Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.

    2012-04-01

    The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

  7. Federal Research and Development Contract Trends and the Supporting Industrial Base, 2000-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    Homeland Security, and government-wide services contracting trends; sourcing policy and cost estimation methodologies; and recent U.S. Army modernization ...been fears that the sharp downturn in federal contract obligations would disproportionately impact the R&D contracting portfolios within individual...329 - contracting portfolios , and the industrial base that supports those efforts, within each R&D contracting agency. The main finding of this

  8. Billing Trends

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Billing Trends. Internet access: Bandwidth becoming analogous to electric power. Only maximum capacity (load) is fixed; Charges based on usage (units). Leased line bandwidth: Billing analogous to phone calls. But bandwidth is variable.

  9. Time trends in the levels and patterns of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in pine bark, litter, and soil after a forest fire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sung-Deuk

    2014-02-01

    Forest fires are known as an important natural source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), but time trends of PAH levels and patterns in various environmental compartments after forest fires have not been thoroughly studied yet. In this study, 16 US-EPA priority PAHs were analyzed for pine bark, litter, and soil samples collected one, three, five, and seven months after a forest fire in Pohang, South Korea. At the first sampling event, the highest levels of ∑16 PAHs were measured for the three types of samples (pine bark: 5,920 ng/g, litter: 1,540 ng/g, and soil: 133 ng/g). Thereafter, there were apparent decreasing trends in PAH levels; the control samples showed the lowest levels (pine bark: 124 ng/g, litter: 75 ng/g, and soil: 26 ng/g). The levels of PAHs in the litter and soil samples normalized by organic carbon (OC) fractions also showed decreasing trends, indicating a direct influence of the forest fire. Among the 16 target PAHs, naphthalene was a dominant compound for all types of samples. Light PAHs with 2-4 rings significantly contributed to the total concentration, and their contribution decreased in the course of time. Runoff by heavy precipitation, evaporation, and degradation of PAHs in the summer were probably the main reasons for the observed time trends. The results of principal component analysis (PCA) and diagnostic ratio also supported that the forest fire was indeed an important source of PAHs in the study area. © 2013.

  10. Research on rapid agile metrology for manufacturing based on real-time multitask operating system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jihong; Song, Zhen; Yang, Daoshan; Zhou, Ji; Buckley, Shawn

    1996-10-01

    Rapid agile metrology for manufacturing (RAMM) using multiple non-contact sensors is likely to remain a growing trend in manufacturing. High speed inspecting systems for manufacturing is characterized by multitasks implemented in parallel and real-time events which occur simultaneously. In this paper, we introduce a real-time operating system into RAMM research. A general task model of a class-based object- oriented technology is proposed. A general multitask frame of a typical RAMM system using OPNet is discussed. Finally, an application example of a machine which inspects parts held on a carrier strip is described. With RTOS and OPNet, this machine can measure two dimensions of the contacts at 300 parts/second.

  11. Understanding the Seasonal Greenness Trends and Controls in South Asia Using Satellite Based Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarmah, S.; Jia, G.; Zhang, A.; Singha, M.

    2017-12-01

    South Asia (SA) is one of the most remarkable regions in changing vegetation greenness along with its major expansion of agricultural activity, especially irrigated farming. However, SA is predicted to be a vulnerable agricultural regions to future climate changes. The influence of monsoon climate on the seasonal trends and anomalies of vegetation greenness are not well understood in the region which can provide valuable information about climate-ecosystem interaction. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal vegetation trends and variability using satellite vegetation indices (VI) including AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (1982-2013) and MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) (2000-2013) in summer monsoon (SM) (June-Sept) and winter monsoon (WM) (Dec-Apr) seasons among irrigated cropland (IC), rainfed cropland (RC) and natural vegetation (NV). Seasonal VI variations with climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) and LULC changes have been investigated to identify the forcings behind the vegetation trends and variability. We found that major greening occurred in the last three decades due to the increase in IC productivity noticeably in WM, however, recent (2000-2013) greening trends were lower than the previous decades (1982-1999) in both the IC and RC indicating the stresses on them. The browning trends, mainly concentrated in NV areas were prominent during WM and rigorous since 2000, confirmed from the moderate resolution EVI and LULC datasets. Winter time maximal temperature had been increasing tremendously whereas precipitation trend was not significant over SA. Both the climate variability and LULC changes had integrated effects on the vegetation changes in NV areas specifically in hilly regions. However, LULC impact was intensified since 2000, mostly in north east India. This study also revealed a distinct seasonal variation in spatial distribution of correlation between VI's and climate anomalies over SA

  12. Fault trend prediction of device based on support vector regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song Meicun; Cai Qi

    2011-01-01

    The research condition of fault trend prediction and the basic theory of support vector regression (SVR) were introduced. SVR was applied to the fault trend prediction of roller bearing, and compared with other methods (BP neural network, gray model, and gray-AR model). The results show that BP network tends to overlearn and gets into local minimum so that the predictive result is unstable. It also shows that the predictive result of SVR is stabilization, and SVR is superior to BP neural network, gray model and gray-AR model in predictive precision. SVR is a kind of effective method of fault trend prediction. (authors)

  13. Wet-bulb, dew point, and air temperature trends in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moratiel, R.; Soriano, B.; Centeno, A.; Spano, D.; Snyder, R. L.

    2017-10-01

    This study analyses trends of mean ( T m), maximum ( T x), minimum ( T n), dew point ( T d), and wet-bulb temperatures ( T w) on an annual, seasonal, and monthly time scale over Spain during the period 1981-2010. The main purpose was to determine how temperature and humidity changes are impacting on T w, which is probably a better measure of climate change than temperature alone. In this study, 43 weather stations were used to detect data trends using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen method to estimate the slope of trends. Significant linear trends observed for T m, T x, and T n versus year were 56, 58, and 47 % of the weather stations, respectively, with temperature ranges between 0.2 and 0.4 °C per decade. The months with bigger trends were April, May, June, and July with the highest trend for T x. The spatial behaviour of T d and T w was variable, with various locations showing trends from -0.6 to +0.3 °C per decade for T d and from -0.4 to +0.5 °C per decade for T w. Both T d and T w showed negative trends for July, August, September, November, and December. Comparing the trends versus time of each variable versus each of the other variables exhibited poor relationships, which means you cannot predict the trend of one variable from the trend of another variable. The trend of T x was not related to the trend of T n. The trends of T x, T m, and T n versus time were unrelated to the trends versus time of either T d or T w. The trend of T w showed a high coefficient of determination with the trend of T d with an annual value of R 2 = 0.86. Therefore, the T w trend is more related to changes in humidity than temperature.

  14. Time-trend of melanoma screening practice by primary care physicians: a meta-regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valachis, Antonis; Mauri, Davide; Karampoiki, Vassiliki; Polyzos, Nikolaos P; Cortinovis, Ivan; Koukourakis, Georgios; Zacharias, Georgios; Xilomenos, Apostolos; Tsappi, Maria; Casazza, Giovanni

    2009-01-01

    To assess whether the proportion of primary care physicians implementing full body skin examination (FBSE) to screen for melanoma changed over time. Meta-regression analyses of available data. MEDLINE, ISI, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Fifteen studies surveying 10,336 physicians were included in the analyses. Overall, 15%-82% of them reported to perform FBSE to screen for melanoma. The proportion of physicians using FBSE screening tended to decrease by 1.72% per year (P =0.086). Corresponding annual changes in European, North American, and Australian settings were -0.68% (P =0.494), -2.02% (P =0.044), and +2.59% (P =0.010), respectively. Changes were not influenced by national guide-lines. Considering the increasing incidence of melanoma and other skin malignancies, as well as their relative potential consequences, the FBSE implementation time-trend we retrieved should be considered a worrisome phenomenon.

  15. Agenda trending: reciprocity and the predictive capacity of social networking sites in intermedia agenda setting across topics over time

    OpenAIRE

    Groshek, Jacob; Groshek, Megan Clough

    2013-01-01

    In the contemporary converged media environment, agenda setting is being transformed by the dramatic growth of audiences that are simultaneously media users and producers. The study reported here addresses related gaps in the literature by first comparing the topical agendas of two leading traditional media outlets (New York Times and CNN) with the most frequently shared stories and trending topics on two widely popular Social Networking Sites (Facebook and Twitter). Time-series analyses of t...

  16. Evaluating abundance and trends in a Hawaiian avian community using state-space analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Gorresen, P.M.; Paxton, Eben H.

    2016-01-01

    Estimating population abundances and patterns of change over time are important in both ecology and conservation. Trend assessment typically entails fitting a regression to a time series of abundances to estimate population trajectory. However, changes in abundance estimates from year-to-year across time are due to both true variation in population size (process variation) and variation due to imperfect sampling and model fit. State-space models are a relatively new method that can be used to partition the error components and quantify trends based only on process variation. We compare a state-space modelling approach with a more traditional linear regression approach to assess trends in uncorrected raw counts and detection-corrected abundance estimates of forest birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai‘i. Most species demonstrated similar trends using either method. In general, evidence for trends using state-space models was less strong than for linear regression, as measured by estimates of precision. However, while the state-space models may sacrifice precision, the expectation is that these estimates provide a better representation of the real world biological processes of interest because they are partitioning process variation (environmental and demographic variation) and observation variation (sampling and model variation). The state-space approach also provides annual estimates of abundance which can be used by managers to set conservation strategies, and can be linked to factors that vary by year, such as climate, to better understand processes that drive population trends.

  17. Trend assessment: applications for hydrology and climate research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kallache, M.; Rust, H. W.; Kropp, J.

    2005-02-01

    The assessment of trends in climatology and hydrology still is a matter of debate. Capturing typical properties of time series, like trends, is highly relevant for the discussion of potential impacts of global warming or flood occurrences. It provides indicators for the separation of anthropogenic signals and natural forcing factors by distinguishing between deterministic trends and stochastic variability. In this contribution river run-off data from gauges in Southern Germany are analysed regarding their trend behaviour by combining a deterministic trend component and a stochastic model part in a semi-parametric approach. In this way the trade-off between trend and autocorrelation structure can be considered explicitly. A test for a significant trend is introduced via three steps: First, a stochastic fractional ARIMA model, which is able to reproduce short-term as well as long-term correlations, is fitted to the empirical data. In a second step, wavelet analysis is used to separate the variability of small and large time-scales assuming that the trend component is part of the latter. Finally, a comparison of the overall variability to that restricted to small scales results in a test for a trend. The extraction of the large-scale behaviour by wavelet analysis provides a clue concerning the shape of the trend.

  18. Assessment of trend and seasonality in road accident data: an Iranian case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razzaghi, Alireza; Bahrampour, Abbas; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Zolala, Farzaneh

    2013-06-01

    Road traffic accidents and their related deaths have become a major concern, particularly in developing countries. Iran has adopted a series of policies and interventions to control the high number of accidents occurring over the past few years. In this study we used a time series model to understand the trend of accidents, and ascertain the viability of applying ARIMA models on data from Taybad city. This study is a cross-sectional study. We used data from accidents occurring in Taybad between 2007 and 2011. We obtained the data from the Ministry of Health (MOH) and used the time series method with a time lag of one month. After plotting the trend, non-stationary data in mean and variance were removed using Box-Cox transformation and a differencing method respectively. The ACF and PACF plots were used to control the stationary situation. The traffic accidents in our study had an increasing trend over the five years of study. Based on ACF and PACF plots gained after applying Box-Cox transformation and differencing, data did not fit to a time series model. Therefore, neither ARIMA model nor seasonality were observed. Traffic accidents in Taybad have an upward trend. In addition, we expected either the AR model, MA model or ARIMA model to have a seasonal trend, yet this was not observed in this analysis. Several reasons may have contributed to this situation, such as uncertainty of the quality of data, weather changes, and behavioural factors that are not taken into account by time series analysis.

  19. Assessment of Trend and Seasonality in Road Accident Data: An Iranian Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzaneh Zolala

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Road traffic accidents and their related deaths have become a major concern, particularly in developing countries. Iran has adopted a series of policies and interventions to control the high number of accidents occurring over the past few years. In this study we used a time series model to understand the trend of accidents, and ascertain the viability of applying ARIMA models on data from Taybad city. Methods This study is a cross-sectional study. We used data from accidents occurring in Taybad between 2007 and 2011. We obtained the data from the Ministry of Health (MOH and used the time series method with a time lag of one month. After plotting the trend, non stationary data in mean and variance were removed using Box-Cox transformation and a differencing method respectively. The ACF and PACF plots were used to control the stationary situation. Results The traffic accidents in our study had an increasing trend over the five years of study. Based on ACF and PACF plots gained after applying Box-Cox transformation and differencing, data did not fit to a time series model. Therefore, neither ARIMA model nor seasonality were observed. Conclusion Traffic accidents in Taybad have an upward trend. In addition, we expected either the AR model, MA model or ARIMA model to have a seasonal trend, yet this was not observed in this analysis. Several reasons may have contributed to this situation, such as uncertainty of the quality of data, weather changes, and behavioural factors that are not taken into account by time series analysis.

  20. Trends in US home food preparation and consumption: analysis of national nutrition surveys and time use studies from 1965-1966 to 2007-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Lindsey P; Ng, Shu Wen; Popkin, Barry M

    2013-04-11

    It has been well-documented that Americans have shifted towards eating out more and cooking at home less. However, little is known about whether these trends have continued into the 21st century, and whether these trends are consistent amongst low-income individuals, who are increasingly the target of public health programs that promote home cooking. The objective of this study is to examine how patterns of home cooking and home food consumption have changed from 1965 to 2008 by socio-demographic groups. This is a cross-sectional analysis of data from 6 nationally representative US dietary surveys and 6 US time-use studies conducted between 1965 and 2008. Subjects are adults aged 19 to 60 years (n= 38,565 for dietary surveys and n=55,424 for time-use surveys). Weighted means of daily energy intake by food source, proportion who cooked, and time spent cooking were analyzed for trends from 1965-1966 to 2007-2008 by gender and income. T-tests were conducted to determine statistical differences over time. The percentage of daily energy consumed from home food sources and time spent in food preparation decreased significantly for all socioeconomic groups between 1965-1966 and 2007-2008 (p ≤ 0.001), with the largest declines occurring between 1965 and 1992. In 2007-2008, foods from the home supply accounted for 65 to 72% of total daily energy, with 54 to 57% reporting cooking activities. The low income group showed the greatest decline in the proportion cooking, but consumed more daily energy from home sources and spent more time cooking than high income individuals in 2007-2008 (p ≤ 0.001). US adults have decreased consumption of foods from the home supply and reduced time spent cooking since 1965, but this trend appears to have leveled off, with no substantial decrease occurring after the mid-1990's. Across socioeconomic groups, people consume the majority of daily energy from the home food supply, yet only slightly more than half spend any time cooking on a given

  1. Estimation of river and stream temperature trends under haphazard sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Brian R.; Lyubchich, Vyacheslav; Gel, Yulia R.; Rogala, James T.; Robertson, Dale M.; Wei, Xiaoqiao

    2015-01-01

    Long-term temporal trends in water temperature in rivers and streams are typically estimated under the assumption of evenly-spaced space-time measurements. However, sampling times and dates associated with historical water temperature datasets and some sampling designs may be haphazard. As a result, trends in temperature may be confounded with trends in time or space of sampling which, in turn, may yield biased trend estimators and thus unreliable conclusions. We address this concern using multilevel (hierarchical) linear models, where time effects are allowed to vary randomly by day and date effects by year. We evaluate the proposed approach by Monte Carlo simulations with imbalance, sparse data and confounding by trend in time and date of sampling. Simulation results indicate unbiased trend estimators while results from a case study of temperature data from the Illinois River, USA conform to river thermal assumptions. We also propose a new nonparametric bootstrap inference on multilevel models that allows for a relatively flexible and distribution-free quantification of uncertainties. The proposed multilevel modeling approach may be elaborated to accommodate nonlinearities within days and years when sampling times or dates typically span temperature extremes.

  2. Inter-fraction bladder filling variations and time trends for cervical cancer patients assessed with a portable 3-dimensional ultrasound bladder scanner

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmad, Rozilawati; Hoogeman, Mischa S.; Quint, Sandra; Mens, Jan Willem; Pree, Ilse de; Heijmen, Ben J.M.

    2008-01-01

    Background and Purpose: For cervical cancer patients, bladder filling variations may result in inadequate EBRT target coverage, unless large safety margins are used. For a group of patients who received full bladder instructions, inter-fraction variations and time trends in bladder volume were quantified, and a 3D ultrasound (US) scanner was tested for on-line bladder volume measurements. Methods and materials: For 24 patients, the bladder volume was measured with US at the time of the planning CT scan, and twice weekly during the course of RT. Comparisons of US with planning CT were used to assess the bladder scanner accuracy. Patients were treated in prone on a belly board, EPID images were acquired to correlate set-up errors with bladder filling variations. Results: Measured US and CT bladder volumes were strongly correlated (R = 0.97, slope 1.1 ± 0.1). The population mean bladder volume at planning of 378 ± 209 ml (1 SD) reduced to 109 ± 88 ml (1 SD) in week 6, a reduction by 71% (average reduction 46 ml/week), revealing a large inter-fraction time trend. Intra-patient variation in bladder volume during RT was 168 ml (1 SD) (range 70-266 ml). Rotation around the LR axis was significantly correlated with bladder volume changes. Conclusions: Despite a full bladder instruction, bladder volumes reduced dramatically during treatment, implying large time trends in target position of these patients. The portable US scanner provides a quick and reliable measurement of the bladder volume, which might assist future online treatment adaptation

  3. Trends in Flow-based Biosensing Systems for Pesticide Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Louis Marty

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available This review gives a survey on the state of the art of pesticide detection usingflow-based biosensing systems for sample screening. Although immunosensor systems havebeen proposed as powerful pesticide monitoring tools, this review is mainly focused onenzyme-based biosensors, as they are the most commonly employed when using a flowsystem. Among the different detection methods able to be integrated into flow-injectionanalysis (FIA systems, the electrochemical ones will be treated in more detail, due to theirhigh sensitivity, simple sample pretreatment, easy operational procedures and real-timedetection. During the last decade, new trends have been emerging in order to increase theenzyme stability, the sensitivity and selectivity of the measurements, and to lower thedetection limits. These approaches are based on (i the design of novel matrices for enzymeimmobilisation, (ii new manifold configurations of the FIA system, sometimes includingminiaturisation or lab-on-chip protocols thanks to micromachining technology, (iii the useof cholinesterase enzymes either from various commercial sources or genetically modifiedwith the aim of being more sensitive, (iv the incorporation of other highly specificenzymes, such as organophosphate hydrolase (OPH or parathion hydrolase (PH and (v thecombination of different electrochemical methods of detection. This article discusses thesenovel strategies and their advantages and limitations.

  4. Mapping Mountain Pine Beetle Mortality through Growth Trend Analysis of Time-Series Landsat Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Liang

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Disturbances are key processes in the carbon cycle of forests and other ecosystems. In recent decades, mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae outbreaks have become more frequent and extensive in western North America. Remote sensing has the ability to fill the data gaps of long-term infestation monitoring, but the elimination of observational noise and attributing changes quantitatively are two main challenges in its effective application. Here, we present a forest growth trend analysis method that integrates Landsat temporal trajectories and decision tree techniques to derive annual forest disturbance maps over an 11-year period. The temporal trajectory component successfully captures the disturbance events as represented by spectral segments, whereas decision tree modeling efficiently recognizes and attributes events based upon the characteristics of the segments. Validated against a point set sampled across a gradient of MPB mortality, 86.74% to 94.00% overall accuracy was achieved with small variability in accuracy among years. In contrast, the overall accuracies of single-date classifications ranged from 37.20% to 75.20% and only become comparable with our approach when the training sample size was increased at least four-fold. This demonstrates that the advantages of this time series work flow exist in its small training sample size requirement. The easily understandable, interpretable and modifiable characteristics of our approach suggest that it could be applicable to other ecoregions.

  5. Recent Trends in Rapid Environmental Monitoring of Pathogens and Toxicants: Potential of Nanoparticle-Based Biosensor and Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koedrith, Preeyaporn; Thasiphu, Thalisa; Weon, Jong-Il; Boonprasert, Rattana; Tuitemwong, Kooranee; Tuitemwong, Pravate

    2015-01-01

    Of global concern, environmental pollution adversely affects human health and socioeconomic development. The presence of environmental contaminants, especially bacterial, viral, and parasitic pathogens and their toxins as well as chemical substances, poses serious public health concerns. Nanoparticle-based biosensors are considered as potential tools for rapid, specific, and highly sensitive detection of the analyte of interest (both biotic and abiotic contaminants). In particular, there are several limitations of conventional detection methods for water-borne pathogens due to low concentrations and interference with various enzymatic inhibitors in the environmental samples. The increase of cells to detection levels requires long incubation time. This review describes current state of biosensor nanotechnology, the advantage over conventional detection methods, and the challenges due to testing of environmental samples. The major approach is to use nanoparticles as signal reporter to increase output rather than spending time to increase cell concentrations. Trends in future development of novel detection devices and their advantages over other environmental monitoring methodologies are also discussed. PMID:25884032

  6. Assessment of Humidity Conditions and Trends Based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SEPI Over Different Climatic Regions of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ghabaei S

    2017-01-01

    temperature, mean relative humidity, sunshine hours and wind speed at 2 m height. A probability-based overall water deficit assessment was achieved from multiple drought-related indices (i.e. SPEI, SPI and RDI. The humidity conditions were monitored for given stations based on each index during annual, short term (1, 3 and 6 months and long term (9 , 12, 18 and 24 months periods. This research further examine the Locally Weighted Scatter plot Smoothing (LOWESS graphical method and nonparametric Man- Kendal test to evaluate the trends associated with humidity deficiency in annual and monthly time scales during 51 years period (i.e. 1960-2010. Results and Discussion: Our results revealed that the maximum correlation between SPEI index with indices of SPI and RDI was achieved in the coastal wet region and with a declining trend in relative humidity condition in the rest of the regions, this correlation is down over both short- and long-term periods. A comparison between SPI and SPEI also performed that the SPI index was able to reflect prolonged drought over the costal wet region where it showed significant inconstancy in desert and semi desert regions. SPEI result suggested substantial deficiencies in relative humidity at the beginning of 1997 during long term period which indicated an increasing trend of drought statues during last decades. Overall, according to the results of SPEI index in 1month periods monthly drought assessment showed a declining trend in drought magnitude during autumn, winter and spring season months (October to June at investigated stations excepts Tehran and Shiraz stations and with a potential deficiency in relative humidity conditions. Unlikely, annual trend showed increasing trends in drought frequency and persistent over last decade. Conclusion: Our results can be summarized as below: Focusing on various types of deficits, the result of humidity based deficiencies indicated that for semi-mountains, mountains, semi-arid, arid and costal desert

  7. Change Points in the Population Trends of Aerial-Insectivorous Birds in North America: Synchronized in Time across Species and Regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam C Smith

    Full Text Available North American populations of aerial insectivorous birds are in steep decline. Aerial insectivores (AI are a group of bird species that feed almost exclusively on insects in flight, and include swallows, swifts, nightjars, and flycatchers. The causes of the declines are not well understood. Indeed, it is not clear when the declines began, or whether the declines are shared across all species in the group (e.g., caused by changes in flying insect populations or specific to each species (e.g., caused by changes in species' breeding habitat. A recent study suggested that population trends of aerial insectivores changed for the worse in the 1980s. If there was such a change point in trends of the group, understanding its timing and geographic pattern could help identify potential causes of the decline. We used a hierarchical Bayesian, penalized regression spline, change point model to estimate group-level change points in the trends of 22 species of AI, across 153 geographic strata of North America. We found evidence for group-level change points in 85% of the strata. Change points for flycatchers (FC were distinct from those for swallows, swifts and nightjars (SSN across North America, except in the Northeast, where all AI shared the same group-level change points. During the 1980s, there was a negative change point across most of North America, in the trends of SSN. For FC, the group-level change points were more geographically variable, and in many regions there were two: a positive change point followed by a negative change point. This group-level synchrony in AI population trends is likely evidence of a response to a common environmental factor(s with similar effects on many species across broad spatial extents. The timing and geographic patterns of the change points that we identify here should provide a spring-board for research into the causes behind aerial insectivore declines.

  8. Breast cancer screening in Italy: evaluating key performance indicators for time trends and activity volumes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giordano, Livia; Castagno, Roberta; Giorgi, Daniela; Piccinelli, Cristiano; Ventura, Leonardo; Segnan, Nereo; Zappa, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Together with the National centre for screening monitoring (ONS), GISMa supports annual collection of data on national breast screening activities. Aggregated data on implementation and performance are gathered through a standardized form to calculate process and impact indicators. Analyzed data belong to 153 local programmes in the period 2006-2011 (2006-2012 for participation rate only). During the whole period, Italian crude participation rate exceeded GISMa's acceptable standard (50%), even though a higher participation in northern and central Italy compared to southern Italy and Islands was observed. Time trend analysis of diagnostic indicators confirmed in 2011 an adequate quality of breast screening performance, especially at subsequent screening. Recall rate at initial screening did not reach the acceptable standard (performance was achieved at subsequent screening. The same trend was followed by the overall detection rate and positive predictive value. They both showed a progressive reduction (from 6.2‰ in 2006 to 4.5‰ in 2011 for DR and from 8.0% in 2006 to 5.2% in 2011 for PPV, respectively) at initial screening and a good, stable trend at subsequent screening. Activity volume analysis shows that in programmes with greater activity (test/year ≥10,000) RR at both initial and subsequent screening has a better performance. This is also true for DR and PPV where programmes with high volumes of activity do better, especially when compared with those that interpret fewer than 5,000 mammograms per year. In spite of a few limits, these results are reassuring, and they reward the efforts made by screening professionals. It is therefore important to continue to monitor screening indicators and suggest, test, and evaluate new strategies for continuous improvement.

  9. Trends of psychology-related research on euthanasia: a qualitative software-based thematic analysis of journal abstracts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caputo, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    Euthanasia has received increasing attention in both academic and public debates as one of the most controversial issues. However, the contribution of psychology-related themes to the topic has had little role on these ongoing debates. The aim of the present study is twofold: (1) to explore the main themes relating to euthanasia as provided by psychology-related research; (2) to analyze the temporal trends of psychology-related research on euthanasia over the last decades. A comprehensive search of academic literature was conducted on PsychINFO database. A qualitative software-based thematic analysis was carried out on 602 journal abstracts published from 1935 to 2014. This study highlighted four different thematic areas which characterized the scientific discourse on euthanasia: (1) moral values, in terms of religious, philosophical, and social implications concerning the individual's decision to die; (2) professional ethics, in terms of health and social workers' legal responsibility in death assistance; (3) end-of-life care, with regard to medical options provided to support individuals nearing death; and (4) patient's right to healthcare, in terms of access to palliative care and better quality of dying. Euthanasia discourse over the last decades seems to be overall characterized by two main dimensions: (1) the increasing trend of social legitimacy and acceptability of euthanasia over time, which moved from ethical to healthcare issues; and (2) the curvilinear temporal trend about the request/provision process in euthanasia, which moved from patient's decision for ending life (mainly characterizing the most past and recent research) to the role of health professionals (with a peak in the 1990s). The results suggest palliative care as a potential future research area which can provide healthcare providers with skills to 'connect' with patients, understand patients' hidden agendas, and grant a good quality of life and dying process.

  10. Time trends in exposure of cattle to bovine spongiform encephalopathy and cohort effect in France and Italy: value of the classical Age-Period-Cohort approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sala, Carole; Ru, Giuseppe

    2009-09-18

    The Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis is routinely used for time trend analysis of cancer incidence or mortality rates, but in veterinary epidemiology, there are still only a few examples of this application. APC models were recently used to model the French epidemic assuming that the time trend for BSE was mainly due to a cohort effect in relation to the control measures that may have modified the BSE exposure of cohorts over time. We used a categorical APC analysis which did not require any functional form for the effect of the variables, and examined second differences to estimate the variation of the BSE trend. We also reanalysed the French epidemic and performed a simultaneous analysis of Italian data using more appropriate birth cohort categories for comparison. We used data from the exhaustive surveillance carried out in France and Italy between 2001 and 2007, and comparatively described the trend of the epidemic in both countries. At the end, the shape and irregularities of the trends were discussed in light of the main control measures adopted to control the disease. In Italy a decrease in the epidemic became apparent from 1996, following the application of rendering standards for the processing of specific risk material (SRM). For the French epidemic, the pattern of second differences in the birth cohorts confirmed the beginning of the decrease from 1995, just after the implementation of the meat and bone meal (MBM) ban for all ruminants (1994). The APC analysis proved to be highly suitable for the study of the trend in BSE epidemics and was helpful in understanding the effects of management and control of the disease. Additionally, such an approach may help in the implementation of changes in BSE regulations.

  11. Spring onset variations and long-term trends from new hemispheric-scale products and remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dye, D. G.; Li, X.; Ault, T.; Zurita-Milla, R.; Schwartz, M. D.

    2015-12-01

    Spring onset is commonly characterized by plant phenophase changes among a variety of biophysical transitions and has important implications for natural and man-managed ecosystems. Here, we present a new integrated analysis of variability in gridded Northern Hemisphere spring onset metrics. We developed a set of hemispheric temperature-based spring indices spanning 1920-2013. As these were derived solely from meteorological data, they are used as a benchmark for isolating the climate system's role in modulating spring "green up" estimated from the annual cycle of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Spatial patterns of interannual variations, teleconnections, and long-term trends were also analyzed in all metrics. At mid-to-high latitudes, all indices exhibit larger variability at interannual to decadal time scales than at spatial scales of a few kilometers. Trends of spring onset vary across space and time. However, compared to long-term trend, interannual to decadal variability generally accounts for a larger portion of the total variance in spring onset timing. Therefore, spring onset trends identified from short existing records may be aliased by decadal climate variations due to their limited temporal depth, even when these records span the entire satellite era. Based on our findings, we also demonstrated that our indices have skill in representing ecosystem-level spring phenology and may have important implications in understanding relationships between phenology, atmosphere dynamics and climate variability.

  12. Automated classification of Permanent Scatterers time-series based on statistical characterization tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berti, Matteo; Corsini, Alessandro; Franceschini, Silvia; Iannacone, Jean Pascal

    2013-04-01

    The application of space borne synthetic aperture radar interferometry has progressed, over the last two decades, from the pioneer use of single interferograms for analyzing changes on the earth's surface to the development of advanced multi-interferogram techniques to analyze any sort of natural phenomena which involves movements of the ground. The success of multi-interferograms techniques in the analysis of natural hazards such as landslides and subsidence is widely documented in the scientific literature and demonstrated by the consensus among the end-users. Despite the great potential of this technique, radar interpretation of slope movements is generally based on the sole analysis of average displacement velocities, while the information embraced in multi interferogram time series is often overlooked if not completely neglected. The underuse of PS time series is probably due to the detrimental effect of residual atmospheric errors, which make the PS time series characterized by erratic, irregular fluctuations often difficult to interpret, and also to the difficulty of performing a visual, supervised analysis of the time series for a large dataset. In this work is we present a procedure for automatic classification of PS time series based on a series of statistical characterization tests. The procedure allows to classify the time series into six distinctive target trends (0=uncorrelated; 1=linear; 2=quadratic; 3=bilinear; 4=discontinuous without constant velocity; 5=discontinuous with change in velocity) and retrieve for each trend a series of descriptive parameters which can be efficiently used to characterize the temporal changes of ground motion. The classification algorithms were developed and tested using an ENVISAT datasets available in the frame of EPRS-E project (Extraordinary Plan of Environmental Remote Sensing) of the Italian Ministry of Environment (track "Modena", Northern Apennines). This dataset was generated using standard processing, then the

  13. Signal trend identification with fuzzy methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reifman, J.; Tsoukalas, L. H.; Wang, X.; Wei, T. Y. C.

    1999-01-01

    A fuzzy-logic-based methodology for on-line signal trend identification is introduced. Although signal trend identification is complicated by the presence of noise, fuzzy logic can help capture important features of on-line signals and classify incoming power plant signals into increasing, decreasing and steady-state trend categories. In order to verify the methodology, a code named PROTREN is developed and tested using plant data. The results indicate that the code is capable of detecting transients accurately, identifying trends reliably, and not misinterpreting a steady-state signal as a transient one

  14. Trends in sickness absence in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Kristina; Bihrmann, Kristine; Mikkelsen, Sigurd

    2009-01-01

    's Authority, and the Labor Force Survey indicated a stable and largely unaltered pattern of sickness absence during the last 20 years. Findings from Statistics Denmark showed an increase in the cumulative incidence proportion from 6.6 to 7.5% among employed people between 2000 and 2007. CONCLUSION: Our data...... a linear regression analysis to analyze time trends in sickness absence based on datasets from the Danish Employers Confederation, the State Employer's Authority, the Labour Force Survey, and Statistics Denmark. RESULTS: The findings from the Confederation of Danish Employers, the State Employer...

  15. Real-time electricity pricing mechanism in China based on system dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Yongxiu; Zhang, Jixiang

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The system dynamics is used to research the real-time electricity pricing mechanism. • Four kinds of the real-time electricity pricing models are carried out and simulated. • It analysed the electricity price, the user satisfaction and the social benefits under the different models. • Market pricing is the trend of the real-time electricity pricing mechanism. • Initial development path of the real-time price mechanism for China is designed between 2015 and 2030. - Abstract: As an important means of demand-side response, the reasonable formulation of the electricity price mechanism will have an important impact on the balance between the supply and demand of electric power. With the introduction of Chinese intelligence apparatus and the rapid development of smart grids, real-time electricity pricing, as the frontier electricity pricing mechanism in the smart grid, will have great significance on the promotion of energy conservation and the improvement of the total social surplus. From the perspective of system dynamics, this paper studies different real-time electricity pricing mechanisms based on load structure, cost structure and bidding and analyses the situation of user satisfaction and the total social surplus under different pricing mechanisms. Finally, through the comparative analysis of examples under different real-time pricing scenarios, this paper aims to explore and design the future dynamic real-time electricity pricing mechanism in China, predicts the dynamic real-time pricing level and provides a reference for real-time electricity price promotion in the future

  16. New insights into survival trend analyses in cancer population-based studies: the SUDCAN methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uhry, Zoé; Bossard, Nadine; Remontet, Laurent; Iwaz, Jean; Roche, Laurent

    2017-01-01

    The main objective of the SUDCAN study was to compare, for 15 cancer sites, the trends in net survival and excess mortality rates from cancer 5 years after diagnosis between six European Latin countries (Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland). The data were extracted from the EUROCARE-5 database. The study period ranged from 6 (Portugal, 2000-2005) to 18 years (Switzerland, 1989-2007). Trend analyses were carried out separately for each country and cancer site; the number of cases ranged from 1500 to 104 000 cases. We developed an original flexible excess rate modelling strategy that accounts for the continuous effects of age, year of diagnosis, time since diagnosis and their interactions. Nineteen models were constructed; they differed in the modelling of the effect of the year of diagnosis in terms of linearity, proportionality and interaction with age. The final model was chosen according to the Akaike Information Criterion. The fit was assessed graphically by comparing model estimates versus nonparametric (Pohar-Perme) net survival estimates. Out of the 90 analyses carried out, the effect of the year of diagnosis on the excess mortality rate depended on age in 61 and was nonproportional in 64; it was nonlinear in 27 out of the 75 analyses where this effect was considered. The model fit was overall satisfactory. We analysed successfully 15 cancer sites in six countries. The refined methodology proved necessary for detailed trend analyses. It is hoped that three-dimensional parametric modelling will be used more widely in net survival trend studies as it has major advantages over stratified analyses.

  17. Long-term effect of fee-for-service-based reimbursement cuts on processes and outcomes of care for stroke: interrupted time-series study from Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tung, Yu-Chi; Chang, Guann-Ming; Cheng, Shou-Hsia

    2015-01-01

    As healthcare spending continues to increase, reimbursement cuts have become 1 type of healthcare reform to contain costs. Little is known about the long-term impact of cuts in reimbursement, especially under a global budget cap with fee-for-service (FFS) reimbursement, on processes and outcomes of care. The FFS-based reimbursement cuts have been implemented since July 2002 in Taiwan. We examined the long-term association of FFS-based reimbursement cuts with trends in processes and outcomes of care for stroke. We analyzed all 411,487 patients with stroke admitted to general acute care hospitals in Taiwan during the period 1997 to 2010 through Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. We used a quasi-experimental design with quarterly measures of healthcare utilization and outcomes and used segmented autoregressive integrated moving average models for the analysis. After accounting for secular trends and other confounders, the implementation of the FFS-based reimbursement cuts was associated with trend changes in computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging scanning (0.31% per quarter; P=0.013), antiplatelet/anticoagulant use (-0.20% per quarter; Pprocesses and outcomes of care over time. However, the reimbursement cuts from the FFS-based global budget cap are associated with trend changes in processes and outcomes of care for stroke. The FFS-based reimbursement cuts may have long-term positive and negative associations with stroke care. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

  18. Mindfulness-based cognitive therapy for depression: trends and developments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MacKenzie MB

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Meagan B MacKenzie,1 Nancy L Kocovski21Department of Psychology, Ryerson University, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2Department of Psychology, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, ON, CanadaAbstract: Mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT was developed as a psychological intervention for individuals at risk of depressive relapse. Possible mechanisms of change for this intervention are in line with its theoretical underpinnings, and include increases in mindfulness and/or decreases in negative repetitive thoughts. This review provides an overview of current trends in MBCT research, including efficacy and questions regarding the specific effects of MBCT in light of recent comparisons with structurally equivalent control conditions, mechanisms of change, and moderators of treatment outcome. In addition, future directions are discussed, such as challenges with training an adequate number of therapists and disseminating this therapy.Keywords: MBCT, efficacy, mechanisms of change, dissemination, moderators

  19. Global Times once Again: Representative Democracy and Countervailing Trends in Iberoamerica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Roniger

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In the late 1990s and early 2000s democratic expectations were replaced by the discredit of democracy. Analyzing this trend, this study looks at the interplay of politics and the economic realm. It discusses the fragility and persistence of democracy and identifies the effect of recent macro-economic policies, the weakening of public goods, processes of dualization in forms of participation in the public domain. It also analyzes contrasting political trends, which involve some innovative projects institutionalizing democratic controls, but also new forms of populism and clientelism buttressed by poverty, unemployment and violence which reinforce the logic of exclusion. Finally, it suggests rethinking the public realm as a focus for the re-creation of sociability and a shared sense of future by improving public performance and efficacy, safeguarding public goods and thus promoting democratic sustainability in Iberoamerica.

  20. FASHION TREND FOR A SILHOUETTE: BALENCIAGA CASE

    OpenAIRE

    ERTÜRK, Nilay; özüdoğru, şakir

    2014-01-01

    Fashion, in broad and accepted definition, is any temporary preference or a temporary new thing in any area of human life, which prevails for a certain period of time. The issue of how fashionable products would look like in a particular season is discussed under the concept of fashion trends. The main purpose of this study is to discuss the concept of fashion trends and the studies on predictions in fashion trends, to conduct a sample trend survey for a silhouette and observe whether or not ...

  1. Weekly Trends in Preschoolers’ Physical Activity and Sedentary Time in Childcare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leigh M. Vanderloo

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This study sought to examine how the physical activity levels and sedentary time of preschoolers attending center-based childcare varied across the week. Sex differences were also explored. Participants (n = 101 wore Actical™ accelerometers (15 s epoch for five consecutive days during childcare hours only. A multivariate repeated measures analysis of variance was used to evaluate levels of sedentary, light, and moderate-to-vigorous (MVPA physical activity across the five weekdays. Total physical activity (TPA was analyzed separately in a univariate repeated measures ANOVA. Sex was entered as an additional between-subjects factor. Levels of sedentary time, LPA, and TPA across the week were found to be statistically significant, and can best be described by quadratic effects. Participants’ activity levels and sedentary time typically peaked mid-week. Levels of physical activity and sedentary time were not found to significantly differ based on sex. Childcare centers may benefit from the introduction and/or modification of active play-based programming and curricula, particularly at the start and end of the week where preschoolers’ activity levels tend to be lower. Additional investigations are required to confirm these findings.

  2. Nationalist movement’s trends in contemporary Nigerian government and politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shittu, M

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This study seeks to understand the contemporary issues in Nigerian Government and Politics through an assessment of the nationalist movement and its persistent and recurrent trends in the contemporary Nigeria, and how these trends continue to affect the present socio-political issues in the country. This is carried out through mobilization of certain variables of political development theory despite its inability to explain the position of indigenous African people in the alien Western political institutions. Based on this, it is revealed that everything went well until that time the ground was made for power politics in which indigenous African people became players.

  3. Increasing Short-Stay Unplanned Hospital Admissions among Children in England; Time Trends Analysis ’97–‘06

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxena, Sonia; Bottle, Alex; Gilbert, Ruth; Sharland, Mike

    2009-01-01

    Background Timely care by general practitioners in the community keeps children out of hospital and provides better continuity of care. Yet in the UK, access to primary care has diminished since 2004 when changes in general practitioners' contracts enabled them to ‘opt out’ of providing out-of-hours care and since then unplanned pediatric hospital admission rates have escalated, particularly through emergency departments. We hypothesised that any increase in isolated short stay admissions for childhood illness might reflect failure to manage these cases in the community over a 10 year period spanning these changes. Methods and Findings We conducted a population based time trends study of major causes of hospital admission in children 2 days. By 2006, 67.3% of all unplanned admissions were isolated short stays <2 days. The increases in admission rates were greater for common non-infectious than infectious causes of admissions. Conclusions Short stay unplanned hospital admission rates in young children in England have increased substantially in recent years and are not accounted for by reductions in length of in-hospital stay. The majority are isolated short stay admissions for minor illness episodes that could be better managed by primary care in the community and may be evidence of a failure of primary care services. PMID:19829695

  4. Trend analysis in the nuclear maintenance industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruemeli, W.A.

    1986-01-01

    The maintenance of nuclear facilities is a demanding, ongoing activity which requires the same level of quality as new construction. Heretofore, many owners and contractors have relied on ''gut feel'' to determine whether maintenance quality was improving or not. However, trend analysis now is becoming a key factor in monitoring plant activities to ensure quality. Literature abounds with descriptions of computerized systems for collecting and sorting data. Even the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has concurred, with its endorsement of trend analysis of construction indicators in NUREG 1055 (Ford Amendment Study). Stearns Catalytic has developed a unique system of tend analyses for nuclear plant activities. Aside from its intended purpose of determining the quality trends in maintenance activities, the program also supplies substantial quantitative data for control and management of the quality activities. Trend analysis is a time series analysis of a set of observations arranged in chronological order. The important aspect is the time basis, specifically the analysis of quality indicators over successive periods of time. Many program elements, including surveillances, nonconformances, inspections, and audits, are designed to look at quality indications

  5. ESTIMATING RELIABILITY OF DISTURBANCES IN SATELLITE TIME SERIES DATA BASED ON STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z.-G. Zhou

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Normally, the status of land cover is inherently dynamic and changing continuously on temporal scale. However, disturbances or abnormal changes of land cover — caused by such as forest fire, flood, deforestation, and plant diseases — occur worldwide at unknown times and locations. Timely detection and characterization of these disturbances is of importance for land cover monitoring. Recently, many time-series-analysis methods have been developed for near real-time or online disturbance detection, using satellite image time series. However, the detection results were only labelled with “Change/ No change” by most of the present methods, while few methods focus on estimating reliability (or confidence level of the detected disturbances in image time series. To this end, this paper propose a statistical analysis method for estimating reliability of disturbances in new available remote sensing image time series, through analysis of full temporal information laid in time series data. The method consists of three main steps. (1 Segmenting and modelling of historical time series data based on Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST. (2 Forecasting and detecting disturbances in new time series data. (3 Estimating reliability of each detected disturbance using statistical analysis based on Confidence Interval (CI and Confidence Levels (CL. The method was validated by estimating reliability of disturbance regions caused by a recent severe flooding occurred around the border of Russia and China. Results demonstrated that the method can estimate reliability of disturbances detected in satellite image with estimation error less than 5% and overall accuracy up to 90%.

  6. On-line signal trend identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tambouratzis, T.; Antonopoulos-Domis, M.

    2004-01-01

    An artificial neural network, based on the self-organizing map, is proposed for on-line signal trend identification. Trends are categorized at each incoming signal as steady-state, increasing and decreasing, while they are further classified according to characteristics such signal shape and rate of change. Tests with model-generated signals illustrate the ability of the self-organizing map to accurately and reliably perform on-line trend identification in terms of both detection and classification. The proposed methodology has been found robust to the presence of white noise

  7. Study of Railway Track Irregularity Standard Deviation Time Series Based on Data Mining and Linear Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Chaolong

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Good track geometry state ensures the safe operation of the railway passenger service and freight service. Railway transportation plays an important role in the Chinese economic and social development. This paper studies track irregularity standard deviation time series data and focuses on the characteristics and trend changes of track state by applying clustering analysis. Linear recursive model and linear-ARMA model based on wavelet decomposition reconstruction are proposed, and all they offer supports for the safe management of railway transportation.

  8. Validation of Twitter opinion trends with national polling aggregates: Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bovet, Alexandre; Morone, Flaviano; Makse, Hernán A

    2018-06-06

    Measuring and forecasting opinion trends from real-time social media is a long-standing goal of big-data analytics. Despite the large amount of work addressing this question, there has been no clear validation of online social media opinion trend with traditional surveys. Here we develop a method to infer the opinion of Twitter users by using a combination of statistical physics of complex networks and machine learning based on hashtags co-occurrence to build an in-domain training set of the order of a million tweets. We validate our method in the context of 2016 US Presidential Election by comparing the Twitter opinion trend with the New York Times National Polling Average, representing an aggregate of hundreds of independent traditional polls. The Twitter opinion trend follows the aggregated NYT polls with remarkable accuracy. We investigate the dynamics of the social network formed by the interactions among millions of Twitter supporters and infer the support of each user to the presidential candidates. Our analytics unleash the power of Twitter to uncover social trends from elections, brands to political movements, and at a fraction of the cost of traditional surveys.

  9. A unified model of time perception accounts for duration-based and beat-based timing mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sundeep eTeki

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate timing is an integral aspect of sensory and motor processes such as the perception of speech and music and the execution of skilled movement. Neuropsychological studies of time perception in patient groups and functional neuroimaging studies of timing in normal participants suggest common neural substrates for perceptual and motor timing. A timing system is implicated in core regions of the motor network such as the cerebellum, inferior olive, basal ganglia, pre-supplementary and supplementary motor area, pre-motor cortex and higher regions such as the prefrontal cortex.In this article, we assess how distinct parts of the timing system subserve different aspects of perceptual timing. We previously established brain bases for absolute, duration-based timing and relative, beat-based timing in the olivocerebellar and striato-thalamo-cortical circuits respectively (Teki et al., 2011. However, neurophysiological and neuroanatomical studies provide a basis to suggest that timing functions of these circuits may not be independent.Here, we propose a unified model of time perception based on coordinated activity in the core striatal and olivocerebellar networks that are interconnected with each other and the cerebral cortex th

  10. Recent trends in the timing of first sex and marriage among young women in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reda, A Alex; Lindstrom, David

    2014-07-01

    Ethiopia has been characterized by high population growth. Recent social and economic developments have the potential to alter reproductive patterns in the country. Some of these developments include sustained economic growth, urbanization, rapid growth in school enrollments, expansion of primary health care, and a rise in contraceptive access and use. In other national contexts, these developments have been associated with a gradual decoupling of the transition into sexual activity and marriage among young women. We investigate recent trends in the transition into first sex and marriage among three cohorts of Ethiopian women. Using data from the 2000, 2005, and 2011 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) we estimate survival curves and discrete-time hazards models to examine recent trends in age at first sex and first marriage among women ages 20-29. Across the three survey years the median age at first sex has remained relatively stable at 17 years, although the median age at marriage has increased from 17 to 18 years between the 2005 and 2011 surveys. Net of the effects of education and place of residence, there is evidence of a slight trend away from premarital first sex to sexual initiation in the context of marriage. However, among the most educated women and women living in urban areas (who are a small minority of women), there is a much greater tendency to initiate sexual activity outside of marriage compared to women with little schooling and women living in rural areas, and once they have begun sexual activity they tend to wait longer before they get married. We also find evidence in the most recent survey that women who have first sexual intercourse before marriage are delaying marriage more than was the case among earlier cohorts.

  11. Nationwide time trends and risk factors for in-hospital falls-related major injuries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jorgensen, T. S. H.; Hansen, A. H.; Sahlberg, M.

    2015-01-01

    BackgroundAccidental falls during hospitalisation have a range of complications and more information is needed to improve prevention. We investigated patterns of in-hospital fall-related major injuries in the period 2000-2012 and the association between chronic conditions and in-hospital fall......-related major injuries. MethodsUsing administrative databases, patients aged 65+ years with in-hospital falls causing fractures or head injuries with need for surgery or intensive observation were identified as cases and were individually matched with five controls. Joinpoint regression was used to examine time...... trends and conditional logistic regression was used to analyse odds ratio (OR) for in-hospital falls-related major injuries according to a range of comorbidities. ResultsFour thousand seven hundred and fifty-four cases were identified from 2000 to 2012 and the most common injury was femur fracture (61...

  12. Measuring trends in poverty over time - some robust results for Ireland 1980-87

    OpenAIRE

    Nolan, B; Callan, T

    1989-01-01

    The trend in poverty in Ireland between 1980 and 1987 is analysed, using the 1980 Household Budget Survey and the ESRI 1987 Survey of Income, Distribution, Poverty and Usage of State Services. In addition to the number falling below poverty thresholds, more sophisticated aggregate poverty measures are derived, taking into account the extent to which the poor fall below the poverty line and the distribution of income among the poor. Results for the trend in poverty which are robust over a rang...

  13. Time trends in incidence and prognosis of primary liver cancer and liver metastases of unknown origin in a Danish region, 1985-2004

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erichsen, Rune; Jepsen, Peter; Jacobsen, Jacob

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Changes, over the last 20 years, in the diagnostic procedures and treatment of primary liver cancer (PLC) and liver metastases of unknown origin (LMUO) may have affected the clinical course of both cancers. Few longitudinal studies examined this issue. In a population-based setting, we...... studied changes in the incidence and prognosis of PLC and LMUO over time. METHODS: Between 1985 and 2004, we identified 2675 patients with PLC and LMUO in three Danish counties, with a population of 1.4 million. We computed the standardized incidence rate (SIR), ratio of PLC to LMUO diagnoses, median...... survival, and estimated mortality rate ratio adjusted for age, sex, and comorbidity. RESULTS: The SIR of PLC increased from 3.2 in 1985 to 5.0 in 2003, and the SIR of LMUO increased from 3.7 to 6.4. No increase was noted in the PLC-to-LMUO ratio over time (P=0.1 for trend). From 1985 to 2004, the median...

  14. Real-time well condition monitoring in extended reach wells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kucs, R.; Spoerker, H.F. [OMV Austria Exploration and Production GmbH, Gaenserndorf (Austria); Thonhauser, G. [Montanuniversitaet Leoben (Austria)

    2008-10-23

    Ever rising daily operating cost for offshore operations make the risk of running into drilling problems due to torque and drag developments in extended reach applications a growing concern. One option to reduce cost related to torque and drag problems can be to monitor torque and drag trends in real time without additional workload on the platform drilling team. To evaluate observed torque or drag trends it is necessary to automatically recognize operations and to have a 'standard value' to compare the measurements to. The presented systematic approach features both options - fully automated operations recognition and real time analysis. Trends can be discussed between rig- and shore-based teams, and decisions can be based on up to date information. Since the system is focused on visualization of real-time torque and drag trends, instead of highly complex and repeated simulations, calculation time is reduced by comparing the real-time rig data against predictions imported from a commercial drilling engineering application. The system allows reacting to emerging stuck pipe situations or developing cuttings beds long before the situations become severe enough to result in substantial lost time. The ability to compare real-time data with historical data from the same or other wells makes the system a valuable tool in supporting a learning organization. The system has been developed in a joint research initiative for field application on the development of an offshore heavy oil field in New Zealand. (orig.)

  15. Water-quality trends in the nation’s rivers and streams, 1972–2012—Data preparation, statistical methods, and trend results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oelsner, Gretchen P.; Sprague, Lori A.; Murphy, Jennifer C.; Zuellig, Robert E.; Johnson, Henry M.; Ryberg, Karen R.; Falcone, James A.; Stets, Edward G.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Riskin, Melissa L.; De Cicco, Laura A.; Mills, Taylor J.; Farmer, William H.

    2017-04-04

    Since passage of the Clean Water Act in 1972, Federal, State, and local governments have invested billions of dollars to reduce pollution entering rivers and streams. To understand the return on these investments and to effectively manage and protect the Nation’s water resources in the future, we need to know how and why water quality has been changing over time. As part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Project, of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Program, data from the U.S. Geological Survey, along with multiple other Federal, State, Tribal, regional, and local agencies, have been used to support the most comprehensive assessment conducted to date of surface-water-quality trends in the United States. This report documents the methods used to determine trends in water quality and ecology because these methods are vital to ensuring the quality of the results. Specific objectives are to document (1) the data compilation and processing steps used to identify river and stream sites throughout the Nation suitable for water-quality, pesticide, and ecology trend analysis, (2) the statistical methods used to determine trends in target parameters, (3) considerations for water-quality, pesticide, and ecology data and streamflow data when modeling trends, (4) sensitivity analyses for selecting data and interpreting trend results with the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season method, and (5) the final trend results at each site. The scope of this study includes trends in water-quality concentrations and loads (nutrient, sediment, major ion, salinity, and carbon), pesticide concentrations and loads, and metrics for aquatic ecology (fish, invertebrates, and algae) for four time periods: (1) 1972–2012, (2) 1982–2012, (3) 1992–2012, and (4) 2002–12. In total, nearly 12,000 trends in concentration, load, and ecology metrics were evaluated in this study; there were 11,893 combinations of sites, parameters, and trend periods. The

  16. Spatial and temporal trends in alcohol consumption in Belgian cities: A wastewater-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boogaerts, Tim; Covaci, Adrian; Kinyua, Juliet; Neels, Hugo; van Nuijs, Alexander L N

    2016-03-01

    In recent years, scientific evidence has emerged that wastewater-based epidemiology can deliver complementary information concerning the use of different substances of abuse. In this study, the potential of wastewater-based epidemiology in monitoring spatial and temporal trends in alcohol consumption in different populations in Belgium has been examined. Concentrations of ethyl sulphate, a minor Phase-II metabolite of ethanol, in 163 influent wastewater samples from eight wastewater treatment plants in Belgium in the period 2013-2015 were measured with liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry and used to estimate alcohol consumption. The highest levels of alcohol consumption were detected in the metropoles Antwerp and Brussels compared to smaller villages. Annual variations were detected, with a higher alcohol consumption measured in 2013 compared with 2014. The weekly pattern showed a clear week and weekend difference in alcohol use, with intermediate levels on Monday and Friday. The results were extrapolated and a use of 5.6L pure alcohol per year per inhabitant aged 15+ has been estimated in Belgium. The comparison with available information on drinking habits of the Belgian population further demonstrated the usefulness of the wastewater-based epidemiology approach. This is the largest wastewater-based epidemiology study monitoring alcohol consumption to date, demonstrating that objective and quick information on spatio-temporal trends in alcohol consumption on a local and (inter)national scale can be obtained. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Fifty years of fat: news coverage of trends that predate obesity prevalence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Brennan; Wansink, Brian

    2015-07-10

    Obesity prevalence has risen in fifty years. While people generally expect media mentions of health risks like obesity prevalence to follow health risk trends, food consumption trends may precede obesity prevalence trends. Therefore, this research investigates whether media mentions of food predate obesity prevalence. Fifty years of non-advertising articles in the New York Times (and 17 years for the London Times) are coded for the mention of less healthy (5 salty and 5 sweet snacks) and healthy (5 fruits and 5 vegetables) food items by year and then associated with annual obesity prevalence in subsequent years. Time-series generalized linear models test whether food-related mentions predate or postdate obesity prevalence in each country. United States obesity prevalence is positively associated with New York Times mentions of sweet snacks (b = 55.2, CI = 42.4 to 68.1, p = .000) and negatively associated with mentions of fruits (b = -71.28, CI -91.5 to -51.1, p = .000) and vegetables (b = -13.6, CI = -17.5 to -9.6, p = .000). Similar results are found for the United Kingdom and The London Times. Importantly, the "obesity followed mentions" models are stronger than the "obesity preceded mentions" models. It may be possible to estimate a nation's future obesity prevalence (e.g., three years from now) based on how frequently national media mention sweet snacks (positively related) and vegetables or fruits (negatively related) today. This may provide public health officials and epidemiologists with new tools to more quickly assess the effectiveness of current obesity interventions based on what is mentioned in the media today.

  18. Radioactive contamination in Norwegian fish and seafood 1960-2013: time trends and geographical trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heldal, Hilde Elise; Svaeren, Ingrid; Liebig, Penny Lee [Institute of Marine Research, P. O. Box 1870 Nordnes, N-5817 Bergen (Norway); Brungot, Anne Lene; Gaefvert, Torbjoern; Rudjord, Anne Liv [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, P.O. Box 55, N-1332 Oesteraas (Norway); Gwynn, Justin [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, The Fram Centre, N-9296 Tromsoe (Norway)

    2014-07-01

    Barents Sea in 2012). However, time trends and geographical trends are clearly evident in the datasets. For example, the impact of fallout from the Chernobyl accident could be observed, particularly in samples collected in coastal areas and the Kattegat/Skagerrak and the North Sea. In recent decades there has been a slow decrease in the activity concentrations of most anthropogenic radionuclides in fish and seafood as a result of decreasing discharges from European reprocessing plants for spent nuclear fuel and the reduced impact of fallout from the Chernobyl accident. In the case of {sup 99}Tc however, activity concentrations in seawater and certain biota increased to peak values around 2000 as a result of increased discharges from Sellafield (UK) in the 1990's. In open sea areas, the activity concentrations of {sup 137}Cs in fish and seafood have been highest in the Skagerrak and the North Sea due to the proximity to the reprocessing plants at Sellafield and Cap la Hague (France) and outflowing Chernobyl-contaminated seawater from the Baltic Sea. Activity concentrations of {sup 137}Cs in fish and seafood collected in fjords in mid-Norway are up to an order of magnitude higher than in the open sea areas due to terrestrial run-off from Chernobyl fallout in Norway. (authors)

  19. Time Trends and Policy Gaps: The Case of Alcohol Misuse Among Adolescents in Lebanon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghandour, Lilian; Afifi, Rima; Fares, Sonia; El Salibi, Noura; Rady, Alissar

    2015-01-01

    Monitoring studies are crucial for informing and reforming local policies. Using the Lebanon 2005 and 2011 Global School-based Student Health Surveys (GSHS), alcohol time trends were described, policy gaps were identified, and harm reduction policy recommendations were made. In 2005 and 2011, 100 (n = 5109 students) and 44 (n = 2784 students) middle schools were surveyed, respectively. Self-reported cross-sectional data on alcohol use among 7-9th graders in private and public schools was collected including 30-day prevalence, lifetime drunkenness, alcohol-related problems, and sources of alcohol. In 2011, the majority (87%) had alcohol before turning 14. Between 2005 and 2011, past 30-day alcohol use had increased by 40% and lifetime drunkenness by 50% in the total sample (122% among females with a narrowing in the gender gap). Drinking was regular for more than a third of the past 30-day drinkers (drank two or more drinks on the days they drank). Male adolescents were more likely to obtain alcohol from "stores" or "through their friends" whereas females' main source was their "family." One in twenty reported experiencing alcohol-related problems (e.g., getting into fights with family/friends and skipping school). Conclusion/Importance: Evidence-informed policy implications include enforcing a minimum legal drinking age, regulating alcohol advertising, and marketing particularly those targeting youth and women, and ensuring the availability of youth-friendly services. Public messages to increase awareness among all stakeholders including youth, their parents, and larger community are also needed.

  20. Wellness, hard to define, reduces trend up to 4 percent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayer, Cyndy; Berger, Jan; Mahoney, Jack

    2010-04-01

    The purpose of this qualitative study was to identify a common language for "wellness" and a correlating health cost trend reduction through incentive-driven prevention and wellness. Mapping the results of the survey with the trend lines reported by innovative employers could uncover increased financial value in health investments. A 10-question survey was designed for telephone interviews with 26 businesses (Innovators) from the Board of the Center for Health Value Innovation; a paper-based survey with the same questions was completed by attendees at a seminar. Then, an online trend survey was conducted with members of the Board (Innovators) to track the total health cost trends in their companies over the past 3-4 years. Responses were compared and analysis of alignment and differences were recorded by graphing. The trend survey results were mapped and tracked with weighted averages. Innovators' responses to the phone survey showed broader definitions of "wellness" than other companies, with little difference in the Innovators' responses when subdivided by size of company. The online trend survey showed that companies that provided incentives for wellness averaged a trend of 4% over the past 3-4 years-approximately 50% of the national trends of 8%-10% over the same time frame. Innovators have defined wellness in ways that would accelerate adoption in the broader business community and drive implementation of wellness programs. The bigger win could be the community-level shift to a culture of health as employees carry these health competencies to the next business in the community.

  1. World trends from 2017

    OpenAIRE

    Janković Slobodan

    2016-01-01

    Issue of prognosis, analyses of future trends is companion to statecraft, political, economic and military planning. How we plan, what does IR says about scientific prognosis. Jankovic starts with this set of issues in order to pass into prognosis itself based on observable world trends. He claims that European Union has entered its climax comparing it foreign policy situation with that of war situation of Third Reich in 1943. Article is divided in five parts. After presenting and criticizing...

  2. Predicting the Trends of Social Events on Chinese Social Media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yang; Zhang, Lei; Liu, Xiaoqian; Zhang, Zhen; Bai, Shuotian; Zhu, Tingshao

    2017-09-01

    Growing interest in social events on social media came along with the rapid development of the Internet. Social events that occur in the "real" world can spread on social media (e.g., Sina Weibo) rapidly, which may trigger severe consequences and thus require the government's timely attention and responses. This article proposes to predict the trends of social events on Sina Weibo, which is currently the most popular social media in China. Based on the theories of social psychology and communication sciences, we extract an unprecedented amount of comprehensive and effective features that relate to the trends of social events on Chinese social media, and we construct the trends of prediction models by using three classical regression algorithms. We found that lasso regression performed better with the precision 0.78 and the recall 0.88. The results of our experiments demonstrated the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

  3. Quality assurance tracking and trending system (QATTS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, W.J.

    1987-01-01

    In 1984, The Philadelphia Electric Company (PECo) Quality Assurance (QA) Division recognized a need to modify the existing quality finding tracking program to generate a nuclear trending program that could detect trends of PECo-initiated findings that were not detectable to a day-to-day observer. Before 1984, each quality organization in PECo had a separate tracking system. An adequate quality trending program demanded that all findings be tracked in a common data base. The Quality Assurance Tracking and Trending System (QATTS) is divided into two parts, an on-line subsystem that provides access to QATTS data via corporate computer data screens and a reports and graphics subsystem that connects commercially available reports and graphic software computer packages to the QATTS data base. The QATTS can be accessed from any terminal connected to the main frame computer at PECo headquarters. The paper discusses the tracking system, report generation, responsible organization commitment tracking system (ROCT), and trending program

  4. Report on RecSys 2016 Workshop on New Trends in Content-Based Recommender Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bogers, Toine; Koolen, Marijn; Musto, Cataldo

    2017-01-01

    This article reports on the CBRecSys 2016 workshop, the third edition of the workshop on New Trends in Content-based Recommender Systems, co-located with RecSys 2016 in Boston, MA. Content-based recommendation has been applied successfully in many different domains, but it has not seen the same...... for work dedicated to all aspects of content-based recommender systems....... level of attention as collaborative filtering techniques have. Nevertheless, there are many recommendation domains and applications where content and metadata play a key role, either in addition to or instead of ratings and implicit usage data. The CBRecSys workshop series provides a dedicated venue...

  5. Trends and characteristics observed in nuclear events based on international nuclear event scale reports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, Norio

    2001-01-01

    The International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) is jointly operated by the IAEA and the OECD-NEA as a means designed for providing prompt, clear and consistent information related to nuclear events, that occurred at nuclear facilities, and facilitating communication between the nuclear community, the media and the public. Nuclear events are reported to the INES with the Scale', a consistent safety significance indicator, which runs from level 0, for events with no safety significance, to level 7 for a major accident with widespread health and environmental effects. Since the operation of INES was initiated in 1990, approximately 500 events have been reported and disseminated. The present paper discusses the trends observed in nuclear events, such as overall trends of the reported events and characteristics of safety significant events with level 2 or higher, based on the INES reports. (author)

  6. Trends in air concentration and deposition at background monitoring sites in Sweden - major inorganic compounds, heavy metals and ozone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kindbom, K.; Svensson, Annika; Sjoeberg, K.; Pihl Karlsson, G.

    2001-09-01

    This report describes concentrations in air of sulphur compounds, soot, nitrogen compounds and ozone in Sweden between 1985-1998. Time trends of concentration in precipitation and deposition of sulphate, nitrate, ammonium, acidity, base cations and chloride in six different regions covering Sweden are evaluated during the period 1983-1998. Trends of heavy metals in precipitation have been analysed for the period 1983-1998 and the change in heavy metal concentration, 1975-1995, in mosses is described. Data used in the trend analyses originates from measurements performed at six Swedish EMEP stations and from approximately 25 stations within the national Precipitation Chemistry Network. Two different statistical methods, linear regression and the non-parametric Mann Kendall test, have been used to evaluate changes in annual mean values. Time trends of concentration of sulphur dioxide, particulate sulphate, soot, nitrogen dioxide, total nitrate and total ammonium in air show highly significant decreasing trends, except for soot at one station in northern Sweden. Concentrations of ozone have a strong seasonal variation with a peak occurring in spring every year. However, annual ozone concentrations show no obvious trends in spite of decreasing emissions of the precursors NOx and VOC. A slight indication of a decreasing trend in the number of ozone episodes might be seen from 1990 to 1998. Sulphate concentrations in precipitation and deposition show strongly significant decreasing trends in the whole country. Concentrations and deposition of nitrate and ammonium have been decreasing in all areas except for nitrate at stations in south-west and north-west Sweden and ammonium in south-west Sweden. Acidity has decreased in all areas since 1989, resulting in increasing pH values in Sweden. The interannual variations of concentration and deposition of base cations and chloride are large and few general trends can be seen during 1983-1997. Time trends of four heavy metals in

  7. Trends in leisure time and occupational physical activity in the Madrid region, 1995-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meseguer, Carmen M; Galán, Iñaki; Herruzo, Rafael; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando

    2011-01-01

    Information on trends in physical activity is very scarce in Mediterranean countries, which have the highest sedentariness in Europe. This study describes recent trends in leisure time physical activity (LTPA) and at work in the Madrid region. The data were taken from representative annual surveys of population aged 18-64 years, between 1995-2008, 28,084 people participated. We calculated total energy, quantified in metabolic equivalent (MET-1 h per week), spent on LTPA and on light LTPA (6 MET). The annual change in LTPA was estimated by linear regression, and occupational activity by logistic regression, adjusting for age, gender and educational level. The total amount of LTPA in MET-1 h per week declined by 19.8% (Pgenders, all age groups and educational levels, except for those with the lowest level of education. The adjusted annual change in MET-1 h per week was: -0.21 (Pphysical inactivity has increased in the general population (odds ratio for annual change=1.01; 95% confidence interval, 1-1.02); specially in women, young and middle aged, and intermediate educational level. There has been a decline in LTPA, mainly in light and moderate activities, accompanied by greater occupational physical inactivity. This could have contributed to the increase in obesity in the Community of Madrid between 1995-2008. Copyright © 2010 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  8. Fashion and death: Trends Cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Jakemiu Araújo Bortolon

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Fashion is composed of cycles subpostos trends that seek to eliminate the past for a new one, which makes it ephemeral and eternal at the same time. This study investigates how is the relationship between these cycles of trends over time, through a brief history of fashion, considering the theoretical rules of Simmel, Crane and Caldas. They will still be used concepts proposed by Agamben, such as: device, in order to classify the system of the fashion; contemporaneidade, to understand the action of that factor in relation to the time and profanation, to identify the capacity to maintain in the society. It is ended that the fashion, as well as the death, renews the society, it destroys and it creates the new, as a system naturalized artificially

  9. Gender Trends in Radiology Authorship: A 35-Year Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piper, Crystal L; Scheel, John R; Lee, Christoph I; Forman, Howard P

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to describe trends over time in female authorship in the radiology literature and to investigate the tendency of female first authors to publish with female senior authors. Data on the gender of academic physician authors based in the United States for all major articles published in three general radiology journals--Radiology, AJR, and Academic Radiology--were collected and analyzed for the years 1978, 1988, 1998, 2008, and 2013. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify significant trends over time, and a chi-square test of independence was performed to determine significant relations between the genders of first and senior authors. The gender of 4182 of 4217 (99.17%) authors with MD degrees was determined. The proportion of original research articles published by women as first authors increased from 8.33% in 1978 to 32.35% in 2013 (p < 0.001). The proportion of original research articles with women as senior authors increased from 6.75% in 1978 to 21.90% in 2013 (p < 0.001). Female first and senior authorship increased significantly over time (first author, p < 0.001; senior author, p < 0.001). There was a statistically significant relation between the genders of first and senior authors of original research articles and guest editorials (p < 0.001). Over 35 years, there was a statistically significant upward linear trend of female physician participation in authorship of academic radiology literature. Female first authors were more likely to publish with female senior authors.

  10. Levels, fluxes and time trends of persistent organic pollutants in Lake Thun, Switzerland: Combining trace analysis and multimedia modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogdal, Christian; Scheringer, Martin; Schmid, Peter; Blaeuenstein, Markus; Kohler, Martin; Hungerbuehler, Konrad

    2010-01-01

    Levels, mass fluxes, and time trends of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in Lake Thun, a peri-Alpine lake, are investigated. We present measurements of PBDEs and PCBs in air, lake water, lake sediment, and tributary water. These measurements are combined with a multimedia fate model, based on site-specific environmental parameters from the lake catchment. Measured loadings of PBDEs and PCBs in air and tributaries were used to drive the model. The model satisfactorily reproduces PBDE and PCB congener patterns in water and sediment, but it tends to yield concentrations in water below the measurements and concentrations in sediment exceeding the measurements. A sensitivity analysis reveals that partitioning of PBDEs and PCBs between the aqueous dissolved phase and suspended particulate matter in the water column strongly affects the model results, in particular the concentrations in water and sediment. For lower-brominated PBDEs, approximately 70% and 30% of input into the lake stems from atmospheric deposition and from tributaries, respectively. For heavier PBDEs and all PCBs, rivers appear to deliver the major load (64-92%). Waste water effluents are of minor importance. 50-90% of the total input is buried in the permanent sediment. Sediment burial makes PBDEs and PCBs less available for recycling in the environment, and reduces concentrations in the outflowing river. If use of deca-BDE increases in the future, levels in Lake Thun will follow the same trend. If the use and resulting environmental emissions decrease, concentrations in water will rapidly decline, according to our calculations, while sediment levels will decrease at a considerably slower rate.

  11. Caffeine-based food supplements and beverages: Trends of consumption for performance purposes and safety concerns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bessada, Sílvia M F; Alves, Rita C; Oliveira, M Beatriz P P

    2018-07-01

    Nowadays, daily food supplementation regarding the improvement of physical and mental performance is a growing trend in sport practitioners, young students and active people. Food supplements are foodstuffs, labeled under food law and not obliged to safety assessments before their commercialization. Several products are commercialized claiming ergogenic effects as marketing strategies. Caffeine is often one of their main ingredients, as it increases both physical performance and concentration. This manuscript presents a general overview of the current caffeine-based food supplements and energy drinks available in the Portuguese market, as well as the consuming trends regarding their ergogenic effects, performance purposes, and active ingredients. Product claims, recommended daily intakes, caffeine pharmacology, and safety concerns aspects are also discussed aspects. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Trends into rainfall time series of two andes basins of Valle del Cauca (Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisury Cardona-Guerrero

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the goal of detecting changes or trends in registered data of daily rainfall in the basins of rivers Dagua and Cali, located in the south-west of Colombia, in the Valle del Cauca, nine climate extremes indices were calculated using the RClimDex software. For this, precipitation trends were analyzed in 18 rain gauges located in the study area with historical series ranging between 21 and 56 years. Homogeneity tests were made to data to ensure consistency in the information. The results show changes in rainfall, dominated by the increasing trends for almost all indices; however most of the trends do not show high statistical significance. Also, a significant increase in the average annual total rainfall of 15.2 mm (Dagua river basin and 9.1 mm (Cali river basin in the stations located below 1500 msnm was obtained. Moreover, in the stations located at higher elevations, decreases were observed. There is a homogeneous spatial distribution for the most of the indices and similar patterns were found located in defined areas of the study zone, which may affect the runoff production in watersheds in the coming years.

  13. Sea level trends in South East Asian Seas (SEAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassburg, M. W.; Hamlington, B. D.; Leben, R. R.; Manurung, P.; Lumban Gaol, J.; Nababan, B.; Vignudelli, S.; Kim, K.-Y.

    2014-10-01

    Southeast Asian Seas (SEAS) span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The SEAS regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost two decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17 year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement in areas and at times of strong signal to noise associated decadal variability forced by low frequency variations in Pacific trade winds. The SEAS region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically over the studied time period. This historical variation suggests that the strong regional sea level trends observed during the modern satellite altimeter record will abate as trade winds fluctuate on decadal and longer time scales. Furthermore, after removing the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to sea level trends in the past twenty years, the rate of sea level rise is greatly reduced in the SEAS region. As a result of the influence of the PDO, the SEAS regional sea level trends during 2010s and 2020s are likely to be less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) trend if the observed oscillations in wind forcing and sea level persist. Nevertheless, long-term sea level trends in the SEAS will continue to be affected by GMSL rise occurring now and in the future.

  14. Epidemiology of Polymyalgia Rheumatica 2000-2014 and Examination of Incidence and Survival Trends Over 45 Years: A Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raheel, Shafay; Shbeeb, Izzat; Crowson, Cynthia S; Matteson, Eric L

    2017-08-01

    To determine time trends in the incidence and survival of polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR) over a 15-year period in Olmsted County, Minnesota, and to examine trends in incidence of PMR in the population by comparing this time period to a previous incidence cohort from the same population base. All cases of incident PMR among Olmsted County, Minnesota residents in 2000-2014 were identified to extend the previous 1970-1999 cohort. Detailed review of all individual medical records was performed. Incidence rates were age- and sex-adjusted to the US white 2010 population. Survival rates were compared with the expected rates in the population of Minnesota. There were 377 incident cases of PMR during the 15-year study period. Of these, 64% were female and the mean age at incidence was 74.1 years. The overall age- and sex-adjusted annual incidence of PMR was 63.9 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 57.4-70.4) per 100,000 population ages ≥50 years. Incidence rates increased with age in both sexes, but incidence fell after age 80 years. There was a slight increase in incidence of PMR in the recent time period compared to 1970-1999 (P = 0.063). Mortality among individuals with PMR was not significantly worse than that expected in the general population (standardized mortality ratio 0.70 [95% CI 0.57-0.85]). The incidence of PMR has increased slightly in the past 15 years compared to previous decades. Survivorship in patients with PMR is not worse than in the general population. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

  15. Modelling BSE trend over time in Europe, a risk assessment perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ducrot, C.; Sala, C.; Ru, G.; Koeijer, de A.A.; Sheridan, H.; Saegerman, C.; Selhorst, T.; Arnold, M.; Polak, M.P.; Calavas, D.

    2010-01-01

    BSE is a zoonotic disease that caused the emergence of variant Creuzfeldt-Jakob disease in the mid 1990s. The trend of the BSE epidemic in seven European countries was assessed and compared, using Age-Period-Cohort and Reproduction Ratio modelling applied to surveillance data 2001-2007. A strong

  16. Day of the week lost time occupational injury trends in the US by gender and industry and their implications for work scheduling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brogmus, G E

    2007-03-01

    While there is a growing body of research on the impact of work schedules on the risk of occupational injuries, there has been little investigation into the impact that the day of the week might have. The present research was completed to explore day of the week trends, reasons for such trends and the corresponding implications for work scheduling. Data for the number of injuries and illnesses involving days away from work (lost time; LT) in 2004 were provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Office of Safety and Health Statistics. Data from the American Time Use Survey database were used to estimate work hours in 2004. From these two data sources, the rate of LT injuries and illnesses (per 200 000 work hours) by day of the week, industry sector and gender were estimated. The analysis revealed clear differences by day of the week, gender and major industry sector. Sundays had the highest rate overall--nearly 37% higher than the average of the remaining days, Monday to Saturday. Mondays had the next highest rate followed closely by Saturdays. This pattern was not the same for males and females. For males, Mondays had the highest LT rate (27% higher than the average of all other days) with all remaining days having essentially the same rate. For females, Sundays and Saturdays had much higher LT rates--122% and 60% higher, respectively, than the average weekday rate. There were also differences by industry and differences between genders by industry. The present analysis suggests that several factors may be contributing to the weekend and Monday trends observed. Lower-tenured (and younger) workers on the weekends, lower female management/supervision and second jobs on the weekend seem to be contributors to the high Saturday and Sunday LT rates. Differences in day of the week employment by industry did not account for the trends observed. Fraud and overtime also could not be confirmed as contributing to these trends. Monday trends were more complex to explain, with

  17. 20 Years of Total and Tropical Ozone Time Series Based on European Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loyola, D. G.; Heue, K. P.; Coldewey-Egbers, M.

    2016-12-01

    Ozone is an important trace gas in the atmosphere, while the stratospheric ozone layer protects the earth surface from the incident UV radiation, the tropospheric ozone acts as green house gas and causes health damages as well as crop loss. The total ozone column is dominated by the stratospheric column, the tropospheric columns only contributes about 10% to the total column.The ozone column data from the European satellite instruments GOME, SCIAMACHY, OMI, GOME-2A and GOME-2B are available within the ESA Climate Change Initiative project with a high degree of inter-sensor consistency. The tropospheric ozone columns are based on the convective cloud differential algorithm. The datasets encompass a period of more than 20 years between 1995 and 2015, for the trend analysis the data sets were harmonized relative to one of the instruments. For the tropics we found an increase in the tropospheric ozone column of 0.75 ± 0.12 DU decade^{-1} with local variations between 1.8 and -0.8. The largest trends were observed over southern Africa and the Atlantic Ocean. A seasonal trend analysis led to the assumption that the increase is caused by additional forest fires.The trend for the total column was not that certain, based on model predicted trend data and the measurement uncertainty we estimated that another 10 to 15 years of observations will be required to observe a statistical significant trend. In the mid latitudes the trends are currently hidden in the large variability and for the tropics the modelled trends are low. Also the possibility of diverging trends at different altitudes must be considered; an increase in the tropospheric ozone might be accompanied by decreasing stratospheric ozone.The European satellite data record will be extended over the next two decades with the atmospheric satellite missions Sentinel 5 Precursor (launch end of 2016), Sentinel 4 and Sentinel 5.

  18. Contemporary Trends in Farmer-Based Tree Management and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper examines the contemporary trends in tree growing and management in the context of changing farmer livelihood systems in southeastern Nigeria. Data were collected in 1998-99 through a field survey involving interviews with 160 households drawn from 8 rural communities across the different agroecological ...

  19. Oil and gas trends and implications in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahim, Khalid Abdul; Liwan, Audrey

    2012-01-01

    The trends of reserves, production and consumption of oil in Malaysia to meet the ever-increasing demands do not seem to show that oil and gas will be depleted soon, contrary to many reports. Malaysia’s net exporter status of oil continues to expand over time for as long as the value of exports is greater than the value of imports. Only in physical quantities of oil that Malaysia’s imports exceed exports, but this does not mean that Malaysia will be a net importer by then. Given higher prices of exports, the value of exports outweighs the value of imports. If the current reserves are extracted based on the domestic consumption trend of 1980–2010, Malaysia’s reserves will last until 2027 but based on the 1998–2010 trend, the reserves will be depleted by 2035. Malaysia has adopted a four fuel diversification strategy comprising oil, gas, coal and hydro, instead of heavily dependent on oil. Gas has a huge potential for domestic utilization as well as for exports to increase revenues. Malaysia is one of the few countries having many types of renewable energy sources. Malaysia has great potential in biomass utilization as renewable resources mostly from the existing natural forest and planned plantations. - Highlights: ► The quantities of petroleum production and consumption are expected to converge. ► Malaysia’s status as a net exporter in value terms is expected to expand. ► With slower consumption trend, petroleum reserves will be depleted by 2035. ► There is a large potential in natural gas utilization in Malaysia. ► Renewable energy is abundant for the fuel diversification policy for Malaysia.

  20. Interpreting time trends and biomagnification of PCBs in the Baltic region using the equilibrium lipid partitioning approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nfon, Erick; Cousins, Ian T.

    2006-01-01

    Multi-year monitoring data for PCBs in abiotic media and biota collected from the Baltic region were compiled into a database and analyzed using the equilibrium lipid partitioning (ELP) approach to study temporal trends as well as to investigate food web biomagnification. Statistically significant reductions in ELP concentrations between 1987 and 2001 were observed in guillemots, air, and some fish species and a general, but not always statistically significant decline in concentrations was observed throughout the Baltic ecosystem. Estimated clearance half-lives ranged from 2.7-10.7 years. The database contained concentrations for a range of different Baltic species, which comprise a well-known Baltic food web. It was possible to derive the trophic position of the species in this food web and relate them to ELP concentrations. A significant positive correlation between ELP concentrations and trophic position was obtained. Estimated food web magnification factors ranged between 1.9 and 5.1 for selected congeners. - The equilibrium lipid partitioning approach is applied to a large Baltic database of PCB concentrations in abiotic and biota media to investigate time trends and biomagnification

  1. Trends in the forecast of the world prices for selected metals and their influence on the exploitation of the Slovak raw mineral base

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slavkovský Jozef

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper is given a basic information about the situation in the ore raw material base of the Slovak republic, after its transition to the market economy in the years 1990 – 1994. By dumping the ore mining, a decrease in the ore production, especially their sortiment, also started. Therefore only two ore mines – Nižná Slaná (Fe ores and Banská Hodruša (Au ores are in operation in Slovakia at present time. The rest of Slovak ores are economically not viable after present criteria. Besides the evaluation of balanced and unbalanced ore deposits, and the deposit´s parameters, the knowledge about trends of world ores and metal prices are very important. From this point of view, ores and metals which have a great importance (Fe, Al, Cu, Sb, Ag, Au for Slovakia are discussed. The obtained results have a prognostic character and they should be considered at the utilisation of own mineral base, as well as when buying mineral raw materials from abroad. In both cases the information about trends of world prices of raw materials play an important role.

  2. Evaluation of Internet-based dengue query data: Google Dengue Trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Tave Gluskin

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Dengue is a common and growing problem worldwide, with an estimated 70-140 million cases per year. Traditional, healthcare-based, government-implemented dengue surveillance is resource intensive and slow. As global Internet use has increased, novel, Internet-based disease monitoring tools have emerged. Google Dengue Trends (GDT uses near real-time search query data to create an index of dengue incidence that is a linear proxy for traditional surveillance. Studies have shown that GDT correlates highly with dengue incidence in multiple countries on a large spatial scale. This study addresses the heterogeneity of GDT at smaller spatial scales, assessing its accuracy at the state-level in Mexico and identifying factors that are associated with its accuracy. We used Pearson correlation to estimate the association between GDT and traditional dengue surveillance data for Mexico at the national level and for 17 Mexican states. Nationally, GDT captured approximately 83% of the variability in reported cases over the 9 study years. The correlation between GDT and reported cases varied from state to state, capturing anywhere from 1% of the variability in Baja California to 88% in Chiapas, with higher accuracy in states with higher dengue average annual incidence. A model including annual average maximum temperature, precipitation, and their interaction accounted for 81% of the variability in GDT accuracy between states. This climate model was the best indicator of GDT accuracy, suggesting that GDT works best in areas with intense transmission, particularly where local climate is well suited for transmission. Internet accessibility (average ∼ 36% did not appear to affect GDT accuracy. While GDT seems to be a less robust indicator of local transmission in areas of low incidence and unfavorable climate, it may indicate cases among travelers in those areas. Identifying the strengths and limitations of novel surveillance is critical for these types of data to

  3. Gender-Based Violence in India: Long-Term Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simister, John; Mehta, Parnika S.

    2010-01-01

    This article examines long-term trends in Indian society regarding domestic violence between husband and wife, and attitudes to such violence. This article analyzes crime data and uses data from several Indian household surveys: "Work Attitudes and Spending" surveys (1992 to 2007); "World Values Survey" (1990, 1995, 2001, and…

  4. Recent trend of radiation doses of medical workers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anzai, I [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Faculty of Medicine; Tanaka, M; Nakamura, S; Nawa, H; Nukazawa, A

    1981-10-01

    Radiation doses of medical workers in Japan between 1976 and 1979 were analysed based on the data provided by a film badge servicing company. Average annual radiation doses between April, 1978 and March, 1979 were 129 mrems for 2556 doctors, 108 mrems for 2074 radiographers, and 60 mrems for 1915 nurses. It was also suggested that the log-normal distribution could provide a good fit to the frequency distribution of radiation doses of these medical staffs. Time series data of monthly average doses during the period between April, 1976 and March, 1979 were analysed using a computer code named EPA that had been developed by the Japanese Economic Planning Agency. The EPA code separated the original time series data into three components, i.e., the trend and cycle factor, the seasonal factor and the irregular factor based on a multiplicative model. The results of analyses strongly suggested that there existed a significant common pattern among the trend factors of doctors, radiographers and nurses. The similar phenomenon was also observed about the seasonal factors. Some specific cases of medical workers who received considerably high radiation doses were studied, and it was pointed out that, in order to lower the doses of medical workers, the factors which are peculiar to each medical facility must be precisely examined in addition to the strengthening of general radiological protective measures.

  5. A Data-Driven Modeling Strategy for Smart Grid Power Quality Coupling Assessment Based on Time Series Pattern Matching

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Yu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study introduces a data-driven modeling strategy for smart grid power quality (PQ coupling assessment based on time series pattern matching to quantify the influence of single and integrated disturbance among nodes in different pollution patterns. Periodic and random PQ patterns are constructed by using multidimensional frequency-domain decomposition for all disturbances. A multidimensional piecewise linear representation based on local extreme points is proposed to extract the patterns features of single and integrated disturbance in consideration of disturbance variation trend and severity. A feature distance of pattern (FDP is developed to implement pattern matching on univariate PQ time series (UPQTS and multivariate PQ time series (MPQTS to quantify the influence of single and integrated disturbance among nodes in the pollution patterns. Case studies on a 14-bus distribution system are performed and analyzed; the accuracy and applicability of the FDP in the smart grid PQ coupling assessment are verified by comparing with other time series pattern matching methods.

  6. Occupational radiation exposure trends in the nuclear industry of NEA/IAEA Member States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ilari, O.; Horan, J.R.; Franzen, F.L.

    1980-01-01

    After various introductory statements on current occupational radiation exposure trends in nuclear facilities, the authors briefly discuss the problems involved in the application of the ICRP principle of optimization of radiological protection to the design and, in particular, the operation of nuclear plants, with the aim of comparing present exposure trends. To assemble an adequate data base for supporting the technical studies required to optimize radiological protection, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency have launched a survey aimed at collecting information on the levels and trends of occupational radiation exposure in the nuclear industry. The features of this study, based on the answers of NEA/IAEA Member States to a questionnaire, are described. The first results of the survey, regarding the situation and time trends of the average individual dose equivalents and collective dose equivalents for different plant types and for several countries, are also given. A preliminary analysis of the data collected allows certain considerations to be made relating to the influence of size, age and plant type, as well as of different national practices in plant operation and maintenance. (author)

  7. Study on homogenization of synthetic GNSS-retrieved IWV time series and its impact on trend estimates with autoregressive noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klos, Anna; Pottiaux, Eric; Van Malderen, Roeland; Bock, Olivier; Bogusz, Janusz

    2017-04-01

    A synthetic benchmark dataset of Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) was created within the activity of "Data homogenisation" of sub-working group WG3 of COST ES1206 Action. The benchmark dataset was created basing on the analysis of IWV differences retrieved by Global Positioning System (GPS) International GNSS Service (IGS) stations using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecats (ECMWF) reanalysis data (ERA-Interim). Having analysed a set of 120 series of IWV differences (ERAI-GPS) derived for IGS stations, we delivered parameters of a number of gaps and breaks for every certain station. Moreover, we estimated values of trends, significant seasonalities and character of residuals when deterministic model was removed. We tested five different noise models and found that a combination of white and autoregressive processes of first order describes the stochastic part with a good accuracy. Basing on this analysis, we performed Monte Carlo simulations of 25 years long data with two different types of noise: white as well as combination of white and autoregressive processes. We also added few strictly defined offsets, creating three variants of synthetic dataset: easy, less-complicated and fully-complicated. The 'Easy' dataset included seasonal signals (annual, semi-annual, 3 and 4 months if present for a particular station), offsets and white noise. The 'Less-complicated' dataset included above-mentioned, as well as the combination of white and first order autoregressive processes (AR(1)+WH). The 'Fully-complicated' dataset included, beyond above, a trend and gaps. In this research, we show the impact of manual homogenisation on the estimates of trend and its error. We also cross-compare the results for three above-mentioned datasets, as the synthetized noise type might have a significant influence on manual homogenisation. Therefore, it might mostly affect the values of trend and their uncertainties when inappropriately handled. In a future, the synthetic dataset

  8. Study of storm surge trends in typhoon-prone coastal areas based on observations and surge-wave coupled simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xingru; Li, Mingjie; Yin, Baoshu; Yang, Dezhou; Yang, Hongwei

    2018-06-01

    This is a study of the storm surge trends in some of the typhoon-prone coastal areas of China. An unstructured-grid, storm surge-wave-tide coupled model was established for the coastal areas of Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong provinces. The coupled model has a high resolution in coastal areas, and the simulated results compared well with the in situ observations and satellite altimeter data. The typhoon-induced storm surges along the coast of the study areas were simulated based on the established coupled model for the past 20 years (1997-2016). The simulated results were used to analyze the trends of the storm surges in the study area. The extreme storm surge trends along the central coast of Fujian Province reached up to 0.06 m/y, significant at the 90% confidence level. The duration of the storm surges greater than 1.0 and 0.7 m had an increasing trend along the coastal area of northern Fujian Province, significant at confidence levels of 70%-91%. The simulated trends of the extreme storm surges were also validated by observations from two tide gauge stations. Further studies show that the correlation coefficient (RTE) between the duration of the storm surge greater than 1 m and the annual ENSO index can reach as high as 0.62, significant at the 99% confidence level. This occurred in a location where the storm surge trend was not significant. For the areas with significant increasing storm surge trends, RTE was small and not significant. This study identified the storm surge trends for the full complex coastline of the study area. These results are useful both for coastal management by the government and for coastal engineering design.

  9. Trends in Surface Level Ozone Observations from Human-health Relevant Metrics: Results from the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, Z. L.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Doherty, R. M.; Malley, C.; Cooper, O. R.; Pinto, J. P.; Colette, A.; Xu, X.; Simpson, D.; Schultz, M.; Hamad, S.; Moola, R.; Solberg, S.; Feng, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Ozone is an air pollutant formed in the atmosphere from precursor species (NOx, VOCs, CH4, CO) that is detrimental to human health and ecosystems. The global Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) initiative has assembled a global database of surface ozone observations and generated ozone exposure metrics at thousands of measurement sites around the world. This talk will present results from the assessment focused on those indicators most relevant to human health. Specifically, the trends in ozone, comparing different time periods and patterns across regions and among metrics will be addressed. In addition, the fraction of population exposed to high ozone levels and how this has changed between 2000 and 2014 will also be discussed. The core time period analyzed for trends was 2000-2014, selected to include a greater number of sites in East Asia. Negative trends were most commonly observed at many US and some European sites, whereas many sites in East Asia showed positive trends, while sites in Japan showed more of a mix of positive and negative trends. More than half of the sites showed a common direction and significance in the trends for all five human-health relevant metrics. The peak ozone metrics indicate a reduction in exposure to peak levels of ozone related to photochemical episodes in Europe and the US. A considerable number of European countries and states within the US have shown a decrease in population-weighted ozone over time. The 2000-2014 results will be augmented and compared to the trend analysis for additional time periods that cover a greater number of years, but by necessity are based on fewer sites. Trends are found to be statistically significant at a larger fraction of sites with longer time series, compared to the shorter (2000-2014) time series.

  10. Fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and particle swarm optimization techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shyi-Ming; Manalu, Gandhi Maruli Tua; Pan, Jeng-Shyang; Liu, Hsiang-Chuan

    2013-06-01

    In this paper, we present a new method for fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and particle swarm optimization (PSO) techniques. First, we fuzzify the historical training data of the main factor and the secondary factor, respectively, to form two-factors second-order fuzzy logical relationships. Then, we group the two-factors second-order fuzzy logical relationships into two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups. Then, we obtain the optimal weighting vector for each fuzzy-trend logical relationship group by using PSO techniques to perform the forecasting. We also apply the proposed method to forecast the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index and the NTD/USD exchange rates. The experimental results show that the proposed method gets better forecasting performance than the existing methods.

  11. State-space based analysis and forecasting of macroscopic road safety trends in Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

    2013-11-01

    In this paper, macroscopic road safety trends in Greece are analyzed using state-space models and data for 52 years (1960-2011). Seemingly unrelated time series equations (SUTSE) models are developed first, followed by richer latent risk time-series (LRT) models. As reliable estimates of vehicle-kilometers are not available for Greece, the number of vehicles in circulation is used as a proxy to the exposure. Alternative considered models are presented and discussed, including diagnostics for the assessment of their model quality and recommendations for further enrichment of this model. Important interventions were incorporated in the models developed (1986 financial crisis, 1991 old-car exchange scheme, 1996 new road fatality definition) and found statistically significant. Furthermore, the forecasting results using data up to 2008 were compared with final actual data (2009-2011) indicating that the models perform properly, even in unusual situations, like the current strong financial crisis in Greece. Forecasting results up to 2020 are also presented and compared with the forecasts of a model that explicitly considers the currently on-going recession. Modeling the recession, and assuming that it will end by 2013, results in more reasonable estimates of risk and vehicle-kilometers for the 2020 horizon. This research demonstrates the benefits of using advanced state-space modeling techniques for modeling macroscopic road safety trends, such as allowing the explicit modeling of interventions. The challenges associated with the application of such state-of-the-art models for macroscopic phenomena, such as traffic fatalities in a region or country, are also highlighted. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that it is possible to apply such complex models using the relatively short time-series that are available in macroscopic road safety analysis. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Modelling BSE trend over time in Europe, a risk assessment perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Christian; Sala, Carole; Ru, Giuseppe; de Koeijer, Aline; Sheridan, Hazel; Saegerman, Claude; Selhorst, Thomas; Arnold, Mark; Polak, Miroslaw P; Calavas, Didier

    2010-06-01

    BSE is a zoonotic disease that caused the emergence of variant Creuzfeldt-Jakob disease in the mid 1990s. The trend of the BSE epidemic in seven European countries was assessed and compared, using Age-Period-Cohort and Reproduction Ratio modelling applied to surveillance data 2001-2007. A strong decline in BSE risk was observed for all countries that applied control measures during the 1990s, starting at different points in time in the different countries. Results were compared with the type and date of the BSE control measures implemented between 1990 and 2001 in each country. Results show that a ban on the feeding of meat and bone meal (MBM) to cattle alone was not sufficient to eliminate BSE. The fading out of the epidemic started shortly after the complementary measures targeted at controlling the risk in MBM. Given the long incubation period, it is still too early to estimate the additional effect of the ban on the feeding of animal protein to all farm animals that started in 2001. These results provide new insights in the risk assessment of BSE for cattle and Humans, which will especially be useful in the context of possible relaxing BSE surveillance and control measures.

  13. FluBreaks: early epidemic detection from Google flu trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pervaiz, Fahad; Pervaiz, Mansoor; Abdur Rehman, Nabeel; Saif, Umar

    2012-10-04

    The Google Flu Trends service was launched in 2008 to track changes in the volume of online search queries related to flu-like symptoms. Over the last few years, the trend data produced by this service has shown a consistent relationship with the actual number of flu reports collected by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), often identifying increases in flu cases weeks in advance of CDC records. However, contrary to popular belief, Google Flu Trends is not an early epidemic detection system. Instead, it is designed as a baseline indicator of the trend, or changes, in the number of disease cases. To evaluate whether these trends can be used as a basis for an early warning system for epidemics. We present the first detailed algorithmic analysis of how Google Flu Trends can be used as a basis for building a fully automated system for early warning of epidemics in advance of methods used by the CDC. Based on our work, we present a novel early epidemic detection system, called FluBreaks (dritte.org/flubreaks), based on Google Flu Trends data. We compared the accuracy and practicality of three types of algorithms: normal distribution algorithms, Poisson distribution algorithms, and negative binomial distribution algorithms. We explored the relative merits of these methods, and related our findings to changes in Internet penetration and population size for the regions in Google Flu Trends providing data. Across our performance metrics of percentage true-positives (RTP), percentage false-positives (RFP), percentage overlap (OT), and percentage early alarms (EA), Poisson- and negative binomial-based algorithms performed better in all except RFP. Poisson-based algorithms had average values of 99%, 28%, 71%, and 76% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively, whereas negative binomial-based algorithms had average values of 97.8%, 17.8%, 60%, and 55% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively. Moreover, the EA was also affected by the region's population size

  14. Trends of solar ultraviolet irradiance at Barrow, Alaska, and the effect of measurement uncertainties on trend detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Bernhard

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Spectral ultraviolet (UV irradiance has been observed near Barrow, Alaska (71° N, 157° W between 1991 and 2011 with an SUV-100 spectroradiometer. The instrument was historically part of the US National Science Foundation's UV Monitoring Network and is now a component of NSF's Arctic Observing Network. From these measurements, trends in monthly average irradiance and their uncertainties were calculated. The analysis focuses on two quantities, the UV Index (which is affected by atmospheric ozone concentrations and irradiance at 345 nm (which is virtually insensitive to ozone. Uncertainties of trend estimates depend on variations in the data due to (1 natural variability, (2 systematic and random errors of the measurements, and (3 uncertainties caused by gaps in the time series. Using radiative transfer model calculations, systematic errors of the measurements were detected and corrected. Different correction schemes were tested to quantify the sensitivity of the trend estimates on the treatment of systematic errors. Depending on the correction method, estimates of decadal trends changed between 1.5% and 2.9%. Uncertainties in the trend estimates caused by error sources (2 and (3 were set into relation with the overall uncertainty of the trend determinations. Results show that these error sources are only relevant for February, March, and April when natural variability is low due to high surface albedo. This method of addressing measurement uncertainties in time series analysis is also applicable to other geophysical parameters. Trend estimates varied between −14% and +5% per decade and were significant (95.45% confidence level only for the month of October. Depending on the correction method, October trends varied between −11.4% and −13.7% for irradiance at 345 nm and between −11.7% and −14.1% for the UV Index. These large trends are consistent with trends in short-wave (0.3–3.0 μm solar irradiance measured with pyranometers at NOAA

  15. Trends in standardized mortality among individuals with schizophrenia, 1993-2012: a population-based, repeated cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatov, Evgenia; Rosella, Laura; Chiu, Maria; Kurdyak, Paul A

    2017-09-18

    We examined mortality time trends and premature mortality among individuals with and without schizophrenia over a 20-year period. In this population-based, repeated cross-sectional study, we identified all individual deaths that occurred in Ontario between 1993 and 2012 in persons aged 15 and over. We plotted overall and cause-specific age- and sex-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), stratified all-cause ASMR trends by sociodemographic characteristics, and analyzed premature mortality using years of potential life lost. Additionally, we calculated mortality rate ratios (MRRs) using negative binomial regression with adjustment for age, sex, income, rurality and year of death. We identified 31 349 deaths among persons with schizophrenia, and 1 589 902 deaths among those without schizophrenia. Mortality rates among people with schizophrenia were 3 times higher than among those without schizophrenia (adjusted MRR 3.12, 95% confidence interval 3.06-3.17). All-cause ASMRs in both groups declined in parallel over the study period, by about 35%, and were higher for men, for those with low income and for rural dwellers. The absolute ASMR difference also declined throughout the study period (from 16.15 to 10.49 deaths per 1000 persons). Cause-specific ASMRs were greater among those with schizophrenia, with circulatory conditions accounting for most deaths between 1993 and 2012, whereas neoplasms became the leading cause of death for those without schizophrenia after 2005. Individuals with schizophrenia also died, on average, 8 years younger than those without schizophrenia, losing more potential years of life. Although mortality rates among people with schizophrenia have declined over the past 2 decades, specialized approaches may be required to close the persistent 3-fold relative mortality gap with the general population. © 2017 Canadian Medical Association or its licensors.

  16. Assessment of land degradation using time series trend analysis of vegetation indictors in Otindag Sandy land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, H Y; Li, Z Y; Gao, Z H; Wu, J J; Sun, B; Li, C L

    2014-01-01

    Land condition assessment is a basic prerequisite for finding the degradation of a territory, which might lead to desertification under climatic and human pressures. The temporal change in vegetation productivity is a key indicator of land degradation. In this paper, taking the Otindag Sandy Land as a case, the mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI a ), net primary production (NPP) and vegetation rain use efficiency (RUE) dynamic trends during 2001–2010 were analysed. The Mann-Kendall test and the Correlation Analysis method were used and their sensitivities to land degradation were evaluated. The results showed that the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE) showed a downward trend with the two methods in the past 10 years and the land was degraded. For the analysis of the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE), it indicated a decreasing trend in 62.57%, 74.16% and 88.56% of the study area according to the Mann-Kendall test and in 57.85%, 68.38% and 85.29% according to the correlation analysis method. However, the change trends were not significant, the significant trends at the 95% confidence level only accounted for a small proportion. Analysis of NDVI a , NPP and RUE series showed a significant decreasing trend in 9.21%, 4.81% and 6.51% with the Mann-Kendall test. The NPP change trends showed obvious positive link with the precipitation in the study area. While the effect of the inter-annual variation of the precipitation for RUE was small, the vegetation RUE can provide valuable insights into the status of land condition and had best sensitivity to land degradation

  17. TRANSIT TIMING OBSERVATIONS FROM KEPLER. V. TRANSIT TIMING VARIATION CANDIDATES IN THE FIRST SIXTEEN MONTHS FROM POLYNOMIAL MODELS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ford, Eric B. [Astronomy Department, University of Florida, 211 Bryant Space Sciences Center, Gainesville, FL 32111 (United States); Ragozzine, Darin; Holman, Matthew J. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Rowe, Jason F.; Barclay, Thomas; Borucki, William J.; Bryson, Stephen T.; Caldwell, Douglas A.; Kinemuchi, Karen; Koch, David G.; Lissauer, Jack J.; Still, Martin; Tenenbaum, Peter [NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035 (United States); Steffen, Jason H. [Fermilab Center for Particle Astrophysics, P.O. Box 500, MS 127, Batavia, IL 60510 (United States); Batalha, Natalie M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA 95192 (United States); Fabrycky, Daniel C. [UCO/Lick Observatory, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Gautier, Thomas N. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Ibrahim, Khadeejah A.; Uddin, Kamal [Orbital Sciences Corporation/NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035 (United States); Kjeldsen, Hans, E-mail: eford@astro.ufl.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Aarhus University, DK-8000 Aarhus C (Denmark); and others

    2012-09-10

    Transit timing variations provide a powerful tool for confirming and characterizing transiting planets, as well as detecting non-transiting planets. We report the results of an updated transit timing variation (TTV) analysis for 1481 planet candidates based on transit times measured during the first sixteen months of Kepler observations. We present 39 strong TTV candidates based on long-term trends (2.8% of suitable data sets). We present another 136 weaker TTV candidates (9.8% of suitable data sets) based on the excess scatter of TTV measurements about a linear ephemeris. We anticipate that several of these planet candidates could be confirmed and perhaps characterized with more detailed TTV analyses using publicly available Kepler observations. For many others, Kepler has observed a long-term TTV trend, but an extended Kepler mission will be required to characterize the system via TTVs. We find that the occurrence rate of planet candidates that show TTVs is significantly increased ({approx}68%) for planet candidates transiting stars with multiple transiting planet candidates when compared to planet candidates transiting stars with a single transiting planet candidate.

  18. Trends in asset structure between not-for-profit and investor-owned hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Paula H; Reiter, Kristin L

    2010-12-01

    The delivery of health care is a capital-intensive industry, and thus, hospital investment strategy continues to be an important area of interest for both health policy and research. Much attention has been given to hospitals' capital investment policies with relatively little attention to investments in financial assets, which serve an important role in not-for-profit (NFP) hospitals. This study describes and analyzes trends in aggregate asset structure between NFP and investor-owned (IO) hospitals during the post-capital-based prospective payment system implementation period, providing the first documentation of long-term trends in hospital investment. The authors find hospitals' aggregate asset structure differs significantly based on ownership, size, and profitability. For both NFP and IO hospitals, financial securities have remained consistent over time, while fixed asset representation has declined in IO hospitals.

  19. Trends in Asset Structure between Not-for-Profit and Investor Owned Hospitals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Paula H.; Reiter, Kristin L.

    2010-01-01

    The delivery of health care is a capital intensive industry and thus hospital investment strategy continues to be an important area of interest for both health policy and research. Much attention has been given to hospitals’ capital investment policies with relatively little attention to investments in financial assets, which serve an important role in NFP hospitals. This study describes and analyzes trends in aggregate asset structure between NFP and IO hospitals during the post-capital based PPS implementation period, providing the first documentation of long-term trends in hospital investment. We find hospitals’ aggregate asset structure differs significantly based on ownership, size, and profitability. For both NFP and IO hospitals, financial securities have remained consistent over time, while fixed asset representation has declined in IO hospitals. PMID:20519429

  20. Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Keith; H. Resit Akcakaya; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Ben Collen; Nicholas K. Dulvy; Elizabeth E. Holmes; Jeffrey A. Hutchings; Doug Keinath; Michael K. Schwartz; Andrew O. Shelton; Robin S. Waples

    2015-01-01

    Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-...

  1. Trends of Concurrent Ankle Arthroscopy at the Time of Operative Treatment of Ankle Fracture: A National Database Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackermann, Jakob; Fraser, Ethan J; Murawski, Christopher D; Desai, Payal; Vig, Khushdeep; Kennedy, John G

    2016-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to report trends associated with concurrent ankle arthroscopy at the time of operative treatment of ankle fracture. The current procedural terminology (CPT) billing codes were used to search the PearlDiver Patient Record Database and identify all patients who were treated for acute ankle fracture in the United States. The Medicare Standard Analytic Files were searchable between 2005 and 2011 and the United Healthcare Orthopedic Dataset from 2007 to 2011. Annual trends were expressed only between 2007 and 2011, as it was the common time period among both databases. Demographic factors were identified for all procedures as well as the cost aspect using the Medicare data set. In total, 32 307 patients underwent open reduction internal fixation (ORIF) of an ankle fracture, of whom 313 (1.0%) had an ankle arthroscopy performed simultaneously. Of those 313 cases, 70 (22.4%) patients received microfracture treatment. Between 2005 and 2011, 85 203 patients were treated for an ankle fracture whether via ORIF or closed treatment. Of these, a total of 566 patients underwent arthroscopic treatment within 7 years. The prevalence of arthroscopy after ankle fracture decreased significantly by 45% from 2007 to 2011 (Pankle fracture treatment, it appears that only a small proportion of surgeons in the United States perform these procedures concurrently. Therapeutic, Level IV: Retrospective. © 2015 The Author(s).

  2. Daily and seasonal trends of electricity and water use on pasture-based automatic milking dairy farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shortall, J; O'Brien, B; Sleator, R D; Upton, J

    2018-02-01

    The objective of this study was to identify the major electricity and water-consuming components of a pasture-based automatic milking (AM) system and to establish the daily and seasonal consumption trends. Electricity and water meters were installed on 7 seasonal calving pasture-based AM farms across Ireland. Electricity-consuming processes and equipment that were metered for consumption included milk cooling components, air compressors, AM unit(s), auxiliary water heaters, water pumps, lights, sockets, automatic manure scrapers, and so on. On-farm direct water-consuming processes and equipment were metered and included AM unit(s), auxiliary water heaters, tubular coolers, wash-down water pumps, livestock drinking water supply, and miscellaneous water taps. Data were collected and analyzed for the 12-mo period of 2015. The average AM farm examined had 114 cows, milking with 1.85 robots, performing a total of 105 milkings/AM unit per day. Total electricity consumption and costs were 62.6 Wh/L of milk produced and 0.91 cents/L, respectively. Milking (vacuum and milk pumping, within-AM unit water heating) had the largest electrical consumption at 33%, followed by air compressing (26%), milk cooling (18%), auxiliary water heating (8%), water pumping (4%), and other electricity-consuming processes (11%). Electricity costs followed a similar trend to that of consumption, with the milking process and water pumping accounting for the highest and lowest cost, respectively. The pattern of daily electricity consumption was similar across the lactation periods, with peak consumption occurring at 0100, 0800, and between 1300 and 1600 h. The trends in seasonal electricity consumption followed the seasonal milk production curve. Total water consumption was 3.7 L of water/L of milk produced. Water consumption associated with the dairy herd at the milking shed represented 42% of total water consumed on the farm. Daily water consumption trends indicated consumption to be lowest in

  3. A New Trend-Following Indicator: Using SSA to Design Trading Rules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leles, Michel Carlo Rodrigues; Mozelli, Leonardo Amaral; Guimarães, Homero Nogueira

    Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is a non-parametric approach that can be used to decompose a time-series as trends, oscillations and noise. Trend-following strategies rely on the principle that financial markets move in trends for an extended period of time. Moving Averages (MAs) are the standard indicator to design such strategies. In this study, SSA is used as an alternative method to enhance trend resolution in comparison with the traditional MA. New trading rules using SSA as indicator are proposed. This paper shows that for the Down Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and Shangai Securities Composite Index (SSCI) time-series the SSA trading rules provided, in general, better results in comparison to MA trading rules.

  4. Italian cancer figures, report 2009: Cancer trend (1998-2005).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    the aim of this collaborative project of the Italian Network of Cancer Registries (Airtum; www.registri-tumori.it) was to analyse cancer incidence and mortality trends in Italy with special reference to the period 1998-2005. the study was based on the Airtum database, which collects and checks data from all the Airtum registries. The present study was based on 20 general and 2 specific populationbased cancer registries. Overall, we analysed 818,017 incident cases and 342,444 cancer deaths for the time period 1998-2005. Seventy percent of the analysed population was from the North of Italy, 17% from the Centre, and 13% from the South. A joinpoint analysis was carried out to detect the point in time where the trend changed; trends are described by means of the estimated annual percent change (APC), with appropriate 95% confidence intervals. Crude and standardized incidence and mortality rates were computed for 36 cancer sites, for both sexes, three age-classes (0-49, 50-69 and 70+ years), and three geographic areas (North, Centre, and South of Italy). Specific chapters are devoted to long-term trends (1986-2005), differences among age-groups, and international comparisons. In 1998-2005, cancer mortality for all sites showed a statistically significant decrease among men (APC - 1.7) and women (- 0.8). Mortality significantly decreased in both sexes for stomach cancer, rectum cancer, liver cancer, and Hodgkin lymphoma. Mortality also decreased among men for cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract, oesophagus, lung, prostate, urinary bladder, and leukaemia. Among women mortality decreased for cancers of the colon, bone, breast, and uterus not otherwise specified. An increase in mortality was recorded for lung cancer among women (+1.5) and melanoma among men (+2.6). Incidence for all cancers together (except non-melanoma skin cancers) increased among men (APC +0.3) and remained stable among women. Cancer sites which showed increasing incidence were thyroid and melanoma

  5. Discovery of time-delayed gene regulatory networks based on temporal gene expression profiling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Zheng

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is one of the ultimate goals for modern biological research to fully elucidate the intricate interplays and the regulations of the molecular determinants that propel and characterize the progression of versatile life phenomena, to name a few, cell cycling, developmental biology, aging, and the progressive and recurrent pathogenesis of complex diseases. The vast amount of large-scale and genome-wide time-resolved data is becoming increasing available, which provides the golden opportunity to unravel the challenging reverse-engineering problem of time-delayed gene regulatory networks. Results In particular, this methodological paper aims to reconstruct regulatory networks from temporal gene expression data by using delayed correlations between genes, i.e., pairwise overlaps of expression levels shifted in time relative each other. We have thus developed a novel model-free computational toolbox termed TdGRN (Time-delayed Gene Regulatory Network to address the underlying regulations of genes that can span any unit(s of time intervals. This bioinformatics toolbox has provided a unified approach to uncovering time trends of gene regulations through decision analysis of the newly designed time-delayed gene expression matrix. We have applied the proposed method to yeast cell cycling and human HeLa cell cycling and have discovered most of the underlying time-delayed regulations that are supported by multiple lines of experimental evidence and that are remarkably consistent with the current knowledge on phase characteristics for the cell cyclings. Conclusion We established a usable and powerful model-free approach to dissecting high-order dynamic trends of gene-gene interactions. We have carefully validated the proposed algorithm by applying it to two publicly available cell cycling datasets. In addition to uncovering the time trends of gene regulations for cell cycling, this unified approach can also be used to study the complex

  6. Resistance patterns among multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients in greater metropolitan Mumbai: trends over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalal, Alpa; Pawaskar, Akshay; Das, Mrinalini; Desai, Ranjan; Prabhudesai, Pralhad; Chhajed, Prashant; Rajan, Sujeet; Reddy, Deepesh; Babu, Sajit; Jayalakshmi, T K; Saranchuk, Peter; Rodrigues, Camilla; Isaakidis, Petros

    2015-01-01

    While the high burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) itself is a matter of great concern, the emergence and rise of advanced forms of drug-resistance such as extensively drug-resistant TB (XDR-TB) and extremely drug-resistant TB (XXDR-TB) is more troubling. The aim of this study was to investigate the trends over time of patterns of drug resistance in a sample of MDR-TB patients in greater metropolitan Mumbai, India. This was a retrospective, observational study of drug susceptibility testing (DST) results among MDR-TB patients from eight health care facilities in greater Mumbai between 2005 and 2013. We classified resistance patterns into four categories: MDR-TB, pre-XDR-TB, XDR-TB and XXDR-TB. A total of 340 MDR-TB patients were included in the study. Pre-XDR-TB was the most common form of drug-resistant TB observed overall in this Mumbai population at 56.8% compared to 29.4% for MDR-TB. The proportion of patients with MDR-TB was 39.4% in the period 2005-2007 and 27.8% in 2011-2013, while the proportion of those with XDR-TB and XXDR-TB was changed from 6.1% and 0% respectively to 10.6% and 5.6% during the same time period. During the same periods, the proportions of patients with ofloxacin, moxifloxacin and ethionamide resistance significantly increased from 57.6% to 75.3%, from 60.0% to 69.5% and from 24.2% to 52.5% respectively (pMumbai highlight the need for individualized drug regimens, designed on the basis of DST results involving first- and second-line anti-TB drugs and treatment history of the patient. A drug-resistant TB case-finding strategy based on molecular techniques that identify only rifampicin resistance will lead to initiation of suboptimal treatment regimens for a significant number of patients, which may in turn contribute to amplification of resistance and transmission of strains with increasingly advanced resistance within the community.

  7. Variability of African Farming Systems from Phenological Analysis of NDVI Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vrieling, Anton; deBeurs, K. M.; Brown, Molly E.

    2011-01-01

    Food security exists when people have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food at all times to meet their dietary needs. The natural resource base is one of the many factors affecting food security. Its variability and decline creates problems for local food production. In this study we characterize for sub-Saharan Africa vegetation phenology and assess variability and trends of phenological indicators based on NDVI time series from 1982 to 2006. We focus on cumulated NDVI over the season (cumNDVI) which is a proxy for net primary productivity. Results are aggregated at the level of major farming systems, while determining also spatial variability within farming systems. High temporal variability of cumNDVI occurs in semiarid and subhumid regions. The results show a large area of positive cumNDVI trends between Senegal and South Sudan. These correspond to positive CRU rainfall trends found and relate to recovery after the 1980's droughts. We find significant negative cumNDVI trends near the south-coast of West Africa (Guinea coast) and in Tanzania. For each farming system, causes of change and variability are discussed based on available literature (Appendix A). Although food security comprises more than the local natural resource base, our results can perform an input for food security analysis by identifying zones of high variability or downward trends. Farming systems are found to be a useful level of analysis. Diversity and trends found within farming system boundaries underline that farming systems are dynamic.

  8. How abnormal is binge eating? 18-Year time trends in population prevalence and burden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchison, D; Touyz, S; González-Chica, D A; Stocks, N; Hay, P

    2017-08-01

    Although findings suggest that binge eating is becoming increasingly normative, the 'clinical significance' of this behaviour at a population level remains uncertain. We aimed to assess the time trends in binge-eating prevalence and burden over 18 years. Six cross-sectional face-to-face surveys of the Australian adult population were conducted in 1998, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2014, and 2015 (N total = 15 126). Data were collected on demographics, 3-month prevalence of objective binge eating (OBE), health-related quality of life, days out of role, and distress related to OBE. The prevalence of OBE increased six-fold from 1998 (2.7%) to 2015 (13.0%). Health-related quality of life associated with OBE improved from 1998 to 2015, where it more closely approximated population norms. Days out of role remained higher among participants who reported OBE, although decreased over time. Half of participants who reported weekly (56.6%) and twice-weekly (47.1%) OBE reported that they were not distressed by this behaviour. However, the presence of distress related to OBE in 2015 was associated with greater health-related quality-of-life impairment. As the prevalence of binge eating increases over time, associated disability has been decreasing. Implications for the diagnosis of disorders associated with binge eating are discussed. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Recruiting Trends, 2007-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collegiate Employment Research Institute (NJ3), 2008

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents the recruiting trends for 2007-2008. This year's report is based on 994 respondents, including 84 K-12 school districts. The researchers focused attention on growing companies, based on lists from Forbes and Inc. magazines, and as a result, they have more small and medium-size employers represented this year. The sample…

  10. Infodemiology of systemic lupus erythematous using Google Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radin, M; Sciascia, S

    2017-07-01

    Objective People affected by chronic rheumatic conditions, such as systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), frequently rely on the Internet and search engines to look for terms related to their disease and its possible causes, symptoms and treatments. 'Infodemiology' and 'infoveillance' are two recent terms created to describe a new developing approach for public health, based on Big Data monitoring and data mining. In this study, we aim to investigate trends of Internet research linked to SLE and symptoms associated with the disease, applying a Big Data monitoring approach. Methods We analysed the large amount of data generated by Google Trends, considering 'lupus', 'relapse' and 'fatigue' in a 10-year web-based research. Google Trends automatically normalized data for the overall number of searches, and presented them as relative search volumes, in order to compare variations of different search terms across regions and periods. The Menn-Kendall test was used to evaluate the overall seasonal trend of each search term and possible correlation between search terms. Results We observed a seasonality for Google search volumes for lupus-related terms. In the Northern hemisphere, relative search volumes for 'lupus' were correlated with 'relapse' (τ = 0.85; p = 0.019) and with fatigue (τ = 0.82; p = 0.003), whereas in the Southern hemisphere we observed a significant correlation between 'fatigue' and 'relapse' (τ = 0.85; p = 0.018). Similarly, a significant correlation between 'fatigue' and 'relapse' (τ = 0.70; p < 0.001) was seen also in the Northern hemisphere. Conclusion Despite the intrinsic limitations of this approach, Internet-acquired data might represent a real-time surveillance tool and an alert for healthcare systems in order to plan the most appropriate resources in specific moments with higher disease burden.

  11. TRENDS OF ROMANIAN BANKING NETWORK DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Georgeta PANAIT

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Since 2009, two trends occurred in the banking world: downsizing of personnel, on the one hand and the reduction of retail units held, on the other hand. The first trend was most notable in countries with unstable or weak economy. The effects were seen immediately. Reducing of the operating costs and more applied of the territorial structure and staff was a decision that credit institutions in Romania took relatively late. Worldwide banks began a restructuring otherwise dictated by this time not so economic crises new market trends - increasing access to the internet for the population and use of the internet in a growing proportion of internet banking

  12. Current status and trends in performance-based risk-sharing arrangements between healthcare payers and medical product manufacturers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Josh J; Gries, Katharine S; Yeung, Kai; Sullivan, Sean D; Garrison, Louis P

    2014-06-01

    Our objective was to identify and characterize publicly available cases and related trends for performance-based risk-sharing arrangements (PBRSAs). We performed a review of PBRSAs over the past 20 years (1993-2013) using available databases and reports from colleagues and healthcare experts. These were categorized according to a previously published taxonomy of scheme types and assessed in terms of the underlying product and market attributes for each scheme. Macro-level trends were identified related to the timing of scheme adoption, countries involved, types of arrangements, and product and market factors. Our search yielded 148 arrangements. From this set, 65 arrangements included a coverage with an evidence development component, 20 included a conditional treatment continuation component, 54 included a performance-linked reimbursement component, and 42 included a financial utilization component. Each type of scheme addresses fundamental uncertainties that exist when products enter the market. The pace of adoption appears to be slowing, but new countries continue to implement PBRSAs. Over this 20-year period, there has been a consistent movement toward arrangements that minimize administrative burden. In conclusion, the pace of PBRSA adoption appears to be slowing but still has traction in many health systems. These remain a viable coverage and reimbursement mechanism for a wide range of medical products. The long-term viability and growth of these arrangements will rest in the ability of the parties to develop mutually beneficial arrangements that entail minimal administrative burden in their development and implementation.

  13. Modelling tourism demand in Madeira since 1946: and historical overview based on a time series approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    António Manuel Martins de Almeida

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Tourism is the leading economic sector in most islands and for that reason market trends are closely monitored due to the huge impacts of relatively minor changes in the demand patterns. An interesting line of research regarding the analysis of market trends concerns the examination of time series to get an historical overview of the data patterns. The modelling of demand patterns is obviously dependent on data availability, and the measurement of changes in demand patterns is quite often focused on a few decades. In this paper, we use long-term time-series data to analyse the evolution of the main markets in Madeira, by country of origin, in order to re-examine the Butler life cycle model, based on data available from 1946 onwards. This study is an opportunity to document the historical development of the industry in Madeira and to introduce the discussion about the rejuvenation of a mature destination. Tourism development in Madeira has experienced rapid growth until the late 90s, as one of the leading destinations in the European context. However, annual growth rates are not within acceptable ranges, which lead policy-makers and experts to recommend a thoughtfully assessment of the industry prospects.

  14. Long-term trends of foE and geomagnetic activity variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Mikhailov

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available A relationship between foE trends and geomagnetic activity long-term variations has been revealed for the first time. By analogy with earlier obtained results on the foF2 trends it is possible to speak about the geomagnetic control of the foE long-term trends as well. Periods of increasing geomagnetic activity correspond to negative foE trends, while these trends are positive for the decreasing phase of geomagnetic activity. This "natural" relationship breaks down around 1970 (on some stations later when pronounced positive foE trends have appeared on most of the stations considered. The dependence of foE trends on geomagnetic activity can be related with nitric oxide variations at the E-layer heights. The positive foE trends that appeared after the "break down" effect may also be explained by the [NO] decrease which is not related to geomagnetic activity variations. But negative trends or irregular foE variations on some stations for the same time period require some different mechanism. Chemical pollution of the lower thermosphere due to the anthropogenic activity may be responsible for such abnormal foE behavior after the end of the 1960s.Key words. Ionosphere (ionosphere-atmosphere interactions; ionospheric disturbances

  15. Educational inequalities in obesity among Mexican women: time-trends from 1988 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez Ferrer, Carolina; McMunn, Anne; Rivera Dommarco, Juan A; Brunner, Eric J

    2014-01-01

    Obesity is one of the leading causes of global morbidity and mortality. Trends in educational inequalities in obesity prevalence among Mexican women have not been analysed systematically to date. Data came from four nationally representative surveys (1988, 1999, 2006, and 2012) of a total of 51 220 non-pregnant women aged 20 to 49. Weight and height were measured during home visits. Education level (higher education, high school, secondary, primary or less) was self-reported. We analysed trends in relative and absolute educational inequalities in obesity prevalence separately for urban and rural areas. Nationally, age-standardised obesity prevalence increased from 9.3% to 33.7% over 25 years to 2012. Obesity prevalence was inversely associated with education level in urban areas at all survey waves. In rural areas, obesity prevalence increased markedly but there was no gradient with education level at any survey. The relative index of inequality in urban areas declined over the period (2.87 (95%CI: 1.94, 4.25) in 1988, 1.55 (95%CI: 1.33, 1.80) in 2012, trend pwomen with higher education in the period 1988-2012 compared to 3.23 fold (95%CI: 2.88, 3.63) for urban women with primary or no education. The slope index of inequality increased in urban areas from 1988 to 2012. Over 0.5 M cases would be avoided if the obesity prevalence of women with primary or less education was the same as for women with higher education. The expected inverse association between education and obesity was observed in urban areas of Mexico. The declining trend in relative educational inequalities in obesity was due to a greater increase in obesity prevalence among higher educated women. In rural areas there was no social gradient in the association between education level and obesity across the four surveys.

  16. Trends in US home food preparation and consumption: analysis of national nutrition surveys and time use studies from 1965–1966 to 2007–2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background It has been well-documented that Americans have shifted towards eating out more and cooking at home less. However, little is known about whether these trends have continued into the 21st century, and whether these trends are consistent amongst low-income individuals, who are increasingly the target of public health programs that promote home cooking. The objective of this study is to examine how patterns of home cooking and home food consumption have changed from 1965 to 2008 by socio-demographic groups. Methods This is a cross-sectional analysis of data from 6 nationally representative US dietary surveys and 6 US time-use studies conducted between 1965 and 2008. Subjects are adults aged 19 to 60 years (n= 38,565 for dietary surveys and n=55,424 for time-use surveys). Weighted means of daily energy intake by food source, proportion who cooked, and time spent cooking were analyzed for trends from 1965–1966 to 2007–2008 by gender and income. T-tests were conducted to determine statistical differences over time. Results The percentage of daily energy consumed from home food sources and time spent in food preparation decreased significantly for all socioeconomic groups between 1965–1966 and 2007–2008 (p ≤ 0.001), with the largest declines occurring between 1965 and 1992. In 2007–2008, foods from the home supply accounted for 65 to 72% of total daily energy, with 54 to 57% reporting cooking activities. The low income group showed the greatest decline in the proportion cooking, but consumed more daily energy from home sources and spent more time cooking than high income individuals in 2007–2008 (p ≤ 0.001). Conclusions US adults have decreased consumption of foods from the home supply and reduced time spent cooking since 1965, but this trend appears to have leveled off, with no substantial decrease occurring after the mid-1990’s. Across socioeconomic groups, people consume the majority of daily energy from the home food supply, yet only

  17. Trends in College Pricing, 2011. Trends in Higher Education Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, Sandy; Ma, Jennifer

    2011-01-01

    The published prices on which the analysis in "Trends in College Pricing" is based come from data reported by institutions on the College Board's Annual Survey of Colleges. This survey, which is distributed to nearly 4,000 postsecondary institutions across the country, collects a wealth of data on enrollment, admission, degrees and majors,…

  18. Epidemiological trends in electronic cigarette exposures reported to U.S. Poison Centers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vakkalanka, J P; Hardison, L S; Holstege, C P

    2014-06-01

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has reported an increase in electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use in both adults and adolescents. Poison Center calls provide data on exposures pertaining to e-cigarette devices and components (including nicotine-refill cartridges), potentially identifying epidemiological trends in reported exposures over time. To characterize the trends in e-cigarette exposures reported to United States (U.S.) Poison Centers between 01 June 2010 and 30 September 2013. We obtained data from the American Association of Poison Control Centers (AAPCC) for all exposures involving e-cigarettes reported to the National Poison Data System (NPDS) by U.S. Poison Centers and described trends in exposures over time, demographics, geographical characteristics, clinical effects and outcomes, management site, and exposure route. A total of 1,700 exposures were reported to Poison Centers during this time. The most frequent age groups were children 5 years or below with 717 (42.2%) exposures and adults ages 20-39 years with 466 (27.4%) exposures. Temporal trends showed an increase of 1.36 exposures per month [95% CI: 1.16-1.56] from June 2010 through December 2012, after which exposures increased by 9.60 per month [95% CI: 8.64-10.55] from January through September 2013. The majority of patients who were followed reported that they had only minor effects. The majority of exposures to e-cigarette devices and components occurred in children of 5 years or below due to accidental exposure. Based on the available data, the reported exposures have resulted in minimal toxicity. Calls to Poison Centers regarding these products have rapidly increased since 2010, and continued surveillance may show changes in the epidemiological trends surrounding e-cigarette exposures.

  19. Converging social trends - emerging outdoor recreation issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carl H. Reidel

    1980-01-01

    I can't recall when I have attended a national conference with a more clearly defined objective than this one. We are here to document outdoor recreation trends and explore their meaning for the future. The word "trend" appears no less than 45 times in the conference brochure, and the symposium organizers are determined that the proceedings will be...

  20. Quantitative detection of melamine based on terahertz time-domain spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiaojing; Wang, Cuicui; Liu, Shangjian; Zuo, Jian; Zhou, Zihan; Zhang, Cunlin

    2018-01-01

    Melamine is an organic base and a trimer of cyanamide, with a 1, 3, 5-triazine skeleton. It is usually used for the production of plastics, glue and flame retardants. Melamine combines with acid and related compounds to form melamine cyanurate and related crystal structures, which have been implicated as contaminants or biomarkers in protein adulterations by lawbreakers, especially in milk powder. This paper is focused on developing an available method for quantitative detection of melamine in the fields of security inspection and nondestructive testing based on THz-TDS. Terahertz (THz) technology has promising applications for the detection and identification of materials because it exhibits the properties of spectroscopy, good penetration and safety. Terahertz time-domain spectroscopy (THz-TDS) is a key technique that is applied to spectroscopic measurement of materials based on ultrafast femtosecond laser. In this study, the melamine and its mixture with polyethylene powder in different consistence are measured using the transmission THz-TDS. And we obtained the refractive index spectra and the absorption spectrum of different concentrations of melamine on 0.2-2.8THz. In the refractive index spectra, it is obvious to see that decline trend with the decrease of concentration; and in the absorption spectrum, two peaks of melamine at 1.98THz and 2.28THz can be obtained. Based on the experimental result, the absorption coefficient and the consistence of the melamine in the mixture are determined. Finally, methods for quantitative detection of materials in the fields of nondestructive testing and quality control based on THz-TDS have been studied.

  1. The demise of multidrug-resistant HIV-1: the national time trend in Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vercauteren, Jurgen; Theys, Kristof; Carvalho, Ana Patricia; Valadas, Emília; Duque, Luis Miguel; Teófilo, Eugénio; Faria, Telo; Faria, Domitília; Vera, José; Aguas, Maria João; Peres, Susana; Mansinho, Kamal; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Camacho, Ricardo Jorge

    2013-04-01

    Despite a decreasing mortality and morbidity in treated HIV-1 patients, highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) can still fail due to the development of drug resistance. Especially, multidrug-resistant viruses pose a threat to efficient therapy. We studied the changing prevalence of multidrug resistance (MDR) over time in a cohort of HIV-1-infected patients in Portugal. We used data of 8065 HIV-1-infected patients followed from July 2001 up to April 2012 in 22 hospitals located in Portugal. MDR at a specific date of sampling was defined as no more than one fully active drug (excluding integrase and entry inhibitors) at that time authorized by the Portuguese National Authority of Medicines and Health Products (INFARMED), as interpreted with the Rega algorithm version 8.0.2. A generalized linear mixed model was used to study the time trend of the prevalence of MDR. We observed a statistically significant decrease in the prevalence of MDR over the last decade, from 6.9% (95% CI: 5.7-8.4) in 2001-03, 6.0% (95% CI: 4.9-7.2) in 2003-05, 3.7% (95% CI: 2.8-4.8) in 2005-07 and 1.6% (95% CI: 1.1-2.2) in 2007-09 down to 0.6% (95% CI: 0.3-0.9) in 2009-12 [OR=0.80 (95% CI: 0.75-0.86); P<0.001]. In July 2011 the last new case of MDR was seen. The prevalence of multidrug-resistant HIV-1 is decreasing over time in Portugal, reflecting the increasing efficiency of HAART and the availability of new drugs. Therefore, in designing a new drug, safety and practical aspects, e.g. less toxicity and ease of use, may need more attention than focusing mainly on efficacy against resistant strains.

  2. Trends and Correlation Estimation in Climate Sciences: Effects of Timescale Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudelsee, M.; Bermejo, M. A.; Bickert, T.; Chirila, D.; Fohlmeister, J.; Köhler, P.; Lohmann, G.; Olafsdottir, K.; Scholz, D.

    2012-12-01

    Trend describes time-dependence in the first moment of a stochastic process, and correlation measures the linear relation between two random variables. Accurately estimating the trend and correlation, including uncertainties, from climate time series data in the uni- and bivariate domain, respectively, allows first-order insights into the geophysical process that generated the data. Timescale errors, ubiquitious in paleoclimatology, where archives are sampled for proxy measurements and dated, poses a problem to the estimation. Statistical science and the various applied research fields, including geophysics, have almost completely ignored this problem due to its theoretical almost-intractability. However, computational adaptations or replacements of traditional error formulas have become technically feasible. This contribution gives a short overview of such an adaptation package, bootstrap resampling combined with parametric timescale simulation. We study linear regression, parametric change-point models and nonparametric smoothing for trend estimation. We introduce pairwise-moving block bootstrap resampling for correlation estimation. Both methods share robustness against autocorrelation and non-Gaussian distributional shape. We shortly touch computing-intensive calibration of bootstrap confidence intervals and consider options to parallelize the related computer code. Following examples serve not only to illustrate the methods but tell own climate stories: (1) the search for climate drivers of the Agulhas Current on recent timescales, (2) the comparison of three stalagmite-based proxy series of regional, western German climate over the later part of the Holocene, and (3) trends and transitions in benthic oxygen isotope time series from the Cenozoic. Financial support by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (FOR 668, FOR 1070, MU 1595/4-1) and the European Commission (MC ITN 238512, MC ITN 289447) is acknowledged.

  3. Dose trend analysis of the PWR nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cernilogar Radez, M.; Janzekovic, H.; Krizman, M.

    2002-01-01

    The analyses of occupational dose trends in Krsko NPP in the period from 1995 to 2001 are given in comparison to the worldwide data. The Central Dose Register of Workers in Nuclear Installations at the Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration enables the comprehensive dose trend analysis of the occupational doses in Krsko NPP. The time dose trend of the collective annual effective dose at the Krsko NPP shows somehow different trend than the trends of the ISOE data [1]. The performance indicators describing dose data distributions related to the radiation protection standards [2, 3] are discussed.(author)

  4. Updating temperature and salinity mean values and trends in the Western Mediterranean: The RADMED project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas-Yáñez, M.; García-Martínez, M. C.; Moya, F.; Balbín, R.; López-Jurado, J. L.; Serra, M.; Zunino, P.; Pascual, J.; Salat, J.

    2017-09-01

    The RADMED project is devoted to the implementation and maintenance of a multidisciplinary monitoring system around the Spanish Mediterranean waters. This observing system is based on periodic multidisciplinary cruises covering the coastal waters, continental shelf and slope waters and some deep stations (>2000 m) from the Westernmost Alboran Sea to Barcelona in the Catalan Sea, including the Balearic Islands. This project was launched in 2007 unifying and extending some previous monitoring projects which had a more reduced geographical coverage. Some of the time series currently available extend from 1992, while the more recent ones were initiated in 2007. The present work updates the available time series up to 2015 (included) and shows the capability of these time series for two main purposes: the calculation of mean values for the properties of main water masses around the Spanish Mediterranean, and the study of the interannual and decadal variability of such properties. The data set provided by the RADMED project has been merged with historical data from the MEDAR/MEDATLAS data base for the calculation of temperature and salinity trends from 1900 to 2015. The analysis of these time series shows that the intermediate and deep layers of the Western Mediterranean have increased their temperature and salinity with an acceleration of the warming and salting trends from 1943. Trends for the heat absorbed by the water column for the 1943-2015 period, range between 0.2 and 0.6 W/m2 depending on the used methodology. The temperature and salinity trends for the same period and for the intermediate layer are 0.002 °C/yr and 0.001 yr-1 respectively. Deep layers warmed and increased their salinity at a rate of 0.004 °C/yr and 0.001 yr-1.

  5. Green computing: power optimisation of vfi-based real-time multiprocessor dataflow applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ahmad, W.; Holzenspies, P.K.F.; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis

    2015-01-01

    Execution time is no longer the only performance metric for computer systems. In fact, a trend is emerging to trade raw performance for energy savings. Techniques like Dynamic Power Management (DPM, switching to low power state) and Dynamic Voltage and Frequency Scaling (DVFS, throttling processor

  6. Time trends for prostate cancer mortality in Brazil and its geographic regions: An age-period-cohort analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braga, Sonia Faria Mendes; de Souza, Mirian Carvalho; Cherchiglia, Mariangela Leal

    2017-10-01

    In the 1980s, an increase in mortality rates for prostate cancer was observed in North America and developed European countries. In the 1990s, however, mortality rates decreased for these countries, an outcome related to early detection of the disease. Conversely, an upward trend in mortality rates was observed in Brazil. This study describe the trends in mortality for prostate cancer in Brazil and geographic regions (North, Northeast, South, Southeast, and Central-West) between 1980 until 2014 and analyze the influence of age, period, and cohort effects on mortality rates. This time-series study used data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and population data from Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The effects on mortality rates were examined using age-period-cohort (APC) models. Crude and standardized mortality rates showed an upward trend for Brazil and its regions more than 2-fold the last 30 years. Age effects showed an increased risk of death in all regions. Period effects showed a higher risk of death in the finals periods for the North and Northeast. Cohort effects showed risk of death was higher for younger than older generations in Brazil and regions, mainly Northeast (RR Adjusted =3.12, 95% CI 1.29-1.41; RR Adjusted =0.28, 95% CI 0.26-0.30, respectively). The increase in prostate cancer mortality rates in Brazil and its regions was mainly due to population aging. The differences in mortality rates and APC effects between regions are related to demographic differences and access of health services across the country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. International trends in alcohol and drug use among vehicle drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christophersen, A S; Mørland, J; Stewart, K; Gjerde, H

    2016-01-01

    Trends in the use of alcohol and drugs among motor vehicle drivers in Australia, Brazil, Norway, Spain, and the United States have been reviewed. Laws, regulations, enforcement, and studies on alcohol and drugs in biological samples from motor vehicle drivers in general road traffic and fatal road traffic crashes (RTCs) are discussed. Roadside surveys showed a reduction of drunk driving over time in the studied countries; however, the pattern varied within and between different countries. The reduction of alcohol use may be related to changes in road traffic laws, public information campaigns, and enforcement, including implementation of random breath testing or sobriety checkpoints. For non-alcohol drugs, the trend in general road traffic is an increase in use. However, drugs were not included in older studies; it is therefore impossible to assess the trends over longer time periods. Data from the studied countries, except Brazil, have shown a significant decrease in fatal RTCs per 100,000 inhabitants over the last decades; from 18.6 to 4.9 in Australia, 14.5 to 2.9 in Norway, 11.1 to 3.6 in Spain, and 19.3 to 10.3 in the United States. The number of alcohol-related fatal RTCs also decreased during the same time period. The proportion of fatal RTCs related to non-alcohol drugs increased, particularly for cannabis and stimulants. A general challenge when comparing alcohol and drug findings in biological samples from several countries is connected to differences in study design, particularly the time period for performing roadside surveys, biological matrix types, drugs included in the analytical program, and the cutoff limits used for evaluation of results. For RTC fatalities, the cases included are based on the police requests for legal autopsy or drug testing, which may introduce a significant selection bias. General comparisons between high-income countries and low- and middle-income countries as well as a discussion of possible future trends are included

  8. Temperature and ice layer trends in the summer middle atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.

    2012-04-01

    We present results from our LIMA model (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) which nicely reproduces mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and also mean characteristics of ice layers known as noctilucent clouds. LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere. We study temperature trends in the mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes and compared with temperature trends from satellites, lidar, and phase height observations. For the first time large observed temperature trends in the summer mesosphere can be reproduced and explained by a model. As will be shown, stratospheric ozone has a major impact on temperature trends in the summer mesosphere. The temperature trend is not uniform in time: it is moderate from 1961 (the beginning of our record) until the beginning of the 1980s. Thereafter, temperatures decrease much stronger until the mid 1990s. Thereafter, temperatures are nearly constant or even increase with time. As will be shown, trends in ozone and carbon dioxide explain most of this behavior. Ice layers in the summer mesosphere are very sensitive to background conditions and are therefore considered to be appropriate tracers for long term variations in the middle atmosphere. We use LIMA background conditions to determine ice layer characteristics in the mesopause region. We compare our results with measurements, for example with albedos from the SBUV satellites, and show that we can nicely reproduce observed trends. It turns out that temperature trends are positive (negative) in the upper (lower) part of the ice layer regime. This complicates an interpretation of NLC long term variations in terms of temperature trends.

  9. Untenable nonstationarity: An assessment of the fitness for purpose of trend tests in hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serinaldi, Francesco; Kilsby, Chris G.; Lombardo, Federico

    2018-01-01

    The detection and attribution of long-term patterns in hydrological time series have been important research topics for decades. A significant portion of the literature regards such patterns as 'deterministic components' or 'trends' even though the complexity of hydrological systems does not allow easy deterministic explanations and attributions. Consequently, trend estimation techniques have been developed to make and justify statements about tendencies in the historical data, which are often used to predict future events. Testing trend hypothesis on observed time series is widespread in the hydro-meteorological literature mainly due to the interest in detecting consequences of human activities on the hydrological cycle. This analysis usually relies on the application of some null hypothesis significance tests (NHSTs) for slowly-varying and/or abrupt changes, such as Mann-Kendall, Pettitt, or similar, to summary statistics of hydrological time series (e.g., annual averages, maxima, minima, etc.). However, the reliability of this application has seldom been explored in detail. This paper discusses misuse, misinterpretation, and logical flaws of NHST for trends in the analysis of hydrological data from three different points of view: historic-logical, semantic-epistemological, and practical. Based on a review of NHST rationale, and basic statistical definitions of stationarity, nonstationarity, and ergodicity, we show that even if the empirical estimation of trends in hydrological time series is always feasible from a numerical point of view, it is uninformative and does not allow the inference of nonstationarity without assuming a priori additional information on the underlying stochastic process, according to deductive reasoning. This prevents the use of trend NHST outcomes to support nonstationary frequency analysis and modeling. We also show that the correlation structures characterizing hydrological time series might easily be underestimated, further

  10. Temporal Trends in Overweight and Obesity, Physical Activity and Screen Time among Czech Adolescents from 2002 to 2014: A National Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigmund, Erik; Sigmundová, Dagmar; Badura, Petr; Kalman, Michal; Hamrik, Zdenek; Pavelka, Jan

    2015-01-01

    This study examines trends in overweight and obesity, physical activity (PA) and screen time (ST) among Czech adolescents over a recent 12-year study period. Nationally representative samples consisted of 19,940 adolescents (9760 boys and 10,180 girls) aged 10.5–16.5 years from the Czech Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) questionnaire-based surveys conducted in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014. Trends in the prevalence of overweight/obesity, meeting the recommendations for moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) (≥60 min per day of MVPA) and excessive ST (>2 h per day) were estimated using logistic regression. Significant increases (p overweight/obesity between the years 2002 and 2014 were evident for both adolescent boys (18.3%2002–24.8%2014) and girls (8.3%2002–11.9%2014). Compared to 2002, in 2014 significant decreases (p overweight/obesity with concomitant decreases in PA provide evidence in support of the current and upcoming efforts of government and commercial organizations in implementing interventions aimed at reducing excessive body weight among Czech adolescents. PMID:26393638

  11. Temporal Trends in Overweight and Obesity, Physical Activity and Screen Time among Czech Adolescents from 2002 to 2014: A National Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigmund, Erik; Sigmundová, Dagmar; Badura, Petr; Kalman, Michal; Hamrik, Zdenek; Pavelka, Jan

    2015-09-18

    This study examines trends in overweight and obesity, physical activity (PA) and screen time (ST) among Czech adolescents over a recent 12-year study period. Nationally representative samples consisted of 19,940 adolescents (9760 boys and 10,180 girls) aged 10.5-16.5 years from the Czech Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) questionnaire-based surveys conducted in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014. Trends in the prevalence of overweight/obesity, meeting the recommendations for moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) (≥60 min per day of MVPA) and excessive ST (>2 h per day) were estimated using logistic regression. Significant increases (p overweight/obesity between the years 2002 and 2014 were evident for both adolescent boys (18.3%(2002)-24.8%(2014)) and girls (8.3%(2002)-11.9%(2014)). Compared to 2002, in 2014 significant decreases (p overweight/obesity with concomitant decreases in PA provide evidence in support of the current and upcoming efforts of government and commercial organizations in implementing interventions aimed at reducing excessive body weight among Czech adolescents.

  12. Global cardiovascular research output, citations, and collaborations: a time-trend, bibliometric analysis (1999-2008).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huffman, Mark D; Baldridge, Abigail; Bloomfield, Gerald S; Colantonio, Lisandro D; Prabhakaran, Poornima; Ajay, Vamadevan S; Suh, Sarah; Lewison, Grant; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj

    2013-01-01

    Health research is one mechanism to improve population-level health and should generally match the health needs of populations. However, there have been limited data to assess the trends in national-level cardiovascular research output, even as cardiovascular disease [CVD] has become the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. We performed a time trends analysis of cardiovascular research publications (1999-2008) downloaded from Web of Knowledge using a iteratively-tested cardiovascular bibliometric filter with >90% precision and recall. We evaluated cardiovascular research publications, five-year running actual citation indices [ACIs], and degree of international collaboration measured through the ratio of the fractional count of addresses from one country against all addresses for each publication. Global cardiovascular publication volume increased from 40 661 publications in 1999 to 55 284 publications in 2008, which represents a 36% increase. The proportion of cardiovascular publications from high-income, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [OECD] countries declined from 93% to 84% of the total share over the study period. High-income, OECD countries generally had higher fractional counts, which suggest less international collaboration, than lower income countries from 1999-2008. There was an inverse relationship between cardiovascular publications and age-standardized CVD morbidity and mortality rates, but a direct, curvilinear relationship between cardiovascular publications and Human Development Index from 1999-2008. Cardiovascular health research output has increased substantially in the past decade, with a greater share of citations being published from low- and middle-income countries. However, low- and middle-income countries with the higher burdens of cardiovascular disease continue to have lower research output than high-income countries, and thus require targeted research investments to improve cardiovascular health.

  13. Long-term dynamics of OH * temperatures over central Europe: trends and solar correlations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Kalicinsky

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We present the analysis of annual average OH* temperatures in the mesopause region derived from measurements of the Ground-based Infrared P-branch Spectrometer (GRIPS at Wuppertal (51° N, 7° E in the time interval 1988 to 2015. The new study uses a temperature time series which is 7 years longer than that used for the latest analysis regarding the long-term dynamics. This additional observation time leads to a change in characterisation of the observed long-term dynamics. We perform a multiple linear regression using the solar radio flux F10.7 cm (11-year cycle of solar activity and time to describe the temperature evolution. The analysis leads to a linear trend of (−0.089 ± 0.055 K year−1 and a sensitivity to the solar activity of (4.2 ± 0.9 K (100 SFU−1 (r2 of fit 0.6. However, one linear trend in combination with the 11-year solar cycle is not sufficient to explain all observed long-term dynamics. In fact, we find a clear trend break in the temperature time series in the middle of 2008. Before this break point there is an explicit negative linear trend of (−0.24 ± 0.07 K year−1, and after 2008 the linear trend turns positive with a value of (0.64 ± 0.33 K year−1. This apparent trend break can also be described using a long periodic oscillation. One possibility is to use the 22-year solar cycle that describes the reversal of the solar magnetic field (Hale cycle. A multiple linear regression using the solar radio flux and the solar polar magnetic field as parameters leads to the regression coefficients Csolar = (5.0 ± 0.7 K (100 SFU−1 and Chale = (1.8 ±  0.5 K (100 µT−1 (r2 = 0.71. The second way of describing the OH* temperature time series is to use the solar radio flux and an oscillation. A least-square fit leads to a sensitivity to the solar activity of (4.1 ± 0.8 K (100 SFU−1, a period P  =  (24.8 ± 3.3 years, and

  14. Old Words, New Meanings: A Study of Trends in Science Librarian Job Ads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bychowski, Brenna K. H.; Caffrey, Carolyn M.; Costa, Mia C.; Moore, Angela D.; Sudhakaran, Jessamyn; Zhang, Yuening

    2010-01-01

    Job ads are supposed to provide careful descriptions of the positions being advertised. Based on this premise, an analysis of job ads over time should reveal emerging trends and changes in a profession. The existing literature on science librarianship emphasizes that there are fluctuations in the demand for subject expertise and technology skills…

  15. Travel and tourism trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deborah J. Chavez

    1995-01-01

    Demographic trends which impact leisure time activities are highlighted, with particular emphasis given to the impacts of the growth of minority populations. Data was collected from recreationists to National Forests and from residents of an urban community. The data indicate a shift in outdoor recreation activities.

  16. Footprint and imprint: an ecologic time-trend analysis of cardiovascular publications in general and specialty journals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldridge, Abigail S; Huffman, Mark D; Bloomfield, Gerald S; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj

    2014-06-01

    Studies have demonstrated strong associations between publication source and citations, as well as investigatory analysis of collaboration effects, in general and medical literature, but are limited to specific journals or short duration of time. This study sought to analyze time trends in cardiovascular research publications in leading general and specialty journals and to determine the association between collaboration and citation index. Cardiovascular publications were retrieved from Web of Knowledge by a cardiovascular bibliometric filter, and annual publication volumes in 8 general and specialty journals were compared. Univariable linear regression models were used to determine global and journal-specific trends for overall publication, cardiovascular publication, proportion of cardiovascular publication, collaboration, and citations. Cardiovascular publications increased (1999 to 2008) by 36% and number of sources by 74%. Volume increased in European Heart Journal (beta: 18.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 10.6 to 26.3) and decreased in Circulation (beta: -42.9, 95% CI: -79.3 to -6.5), Annals of Internal Medicine (beta: -1.9, 95% CI: -3.5 to -0.3), and Lancet (beta: -11.2, 95% CI: -14.7 to -7.8). Number of contributing countries increased in 3 journals: BMJ (beta: 0.8, 95% CI: 0.2 to 1.5), European Heart Journal (beta: -1.2, 95% CI: 0.8 to 1.7), and New England Journal of Medicine (beta: 1.6, 95% CI: 0.6 to 2.7). Fraction of collaborative publications increased (beta: 1.1 to 2.9) in all but Annals of Internal Medicine. Collaboration was associated with a higher median actual citation index (p general and specialty journals. Contribution by country in selected journals was disproportionate and under-represents total cardiovascular research in low- and middle-income countries. Copyright © 2014 World Heart Federation (Geneva). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Assessing Woody Vegetation Trends in Sahelian Drylands Using MODIS Based Seasonal Metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Martin; Hiernaux, Pierre; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Mbow, Cheikh; Kergoat, Laurent; Tagesson, Torbern; Ibrahim, Yahaya Z.; Wele, Abdoulaye; Tucker, Compton J.; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2016-01-01

    Woody plants play a major role for the resilience of drylands and in peoples' livelihoods. However, due to their scattered distribution, quantifying and monitoring woody cover over space and time is challenging. We develop a phenology driven model and train/validate MODIS (MCD43A4, 500m) derived metrics with 178 ground observations from Niger, Senegal and Mali to estimate woody cover trends from 2000 to 2014 over the entire Sahel. The annual woody cover estimation at 500 m scale is fairly accurate with an RMSE of 4.3 (woody cover %) and r(exp 2) = 0.74. Over the 15 year period we observed an average increase of 1.7 (+/- 5.0) woody cover (%) with large spatial differences: No clear change can be observed in densely populated areas (0.2 +/- 4.2), whereas a positive change is seen in sparsely populated areas (2.1 +/- 5.2). Woody cover is generally stable in cropland areas (0.9 +/- 4.6), reflecting the protective management of parkland trees by the farmers. Positive changes are observed in savannas (2.5 +/- 5.4) and woodland areas (3.9 +/- 7.3). The major pattern of woody cover change reveals strong increases in the sparsely populated Sahel zones of eastern Senegal, western Mali and central Chad, but a decreasing trend is observed in the densely populated western parts of Senegal, northern Nigeria, Sudan and southwestern Niger. This decrease is often local and limited to woodlands, being an indication of ongoing expansion of cultivated areas and selective logging.We show that an overall positive trend is found in areas of low anthropogenic pressure demonstrating the potential of these ecosystems to provide services such as carbon storage, if not over-utilized. Taken together, our results provide an unprecedented synthesis of woody cover dynamics in theSahel, and point to land use and human population density as important drivers, however only partially and locally offsetting a general post-drought increase.

  18. Incidence of infective endocarditis in England, 2000-13: a secular trend, interrupted time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayer, Mark J; Jones, Simon; Prendergast, Bernard; Baddour, Larry M; Lockhart, Peter B; Thornhill, Martin H

    2015-03-28

    Antibiotic prophylaxis given before invasive dental procedures in patients at risk of developing infective endocarditis has historically been the focus of infective endocarditis prevention. Recent changes in antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines in the USA and Europe have substantially reduced the number of patients for whom antibiotic prophylaxis is recommended. In the UK, guidelines from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) recommended complete cessation of antibiotic prophylaxis for prevention of infective endocarditis in March, 2008. We aimed to investigate changes in the prescribing of antibiotic prophylaxis and the incidence of infective endocarditis since the introduction of these guidelines. We did a retrospective secular trend study, analysed as an interrupted time series, to investigate the effect of antibiotic prophylaxis versus no prophylaxis on the incidence of infective endocarditis in England. We analysed data for the prescription of antibiotic prophylaxis from Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2013, and hospital discharge episode statistics for patients with a primary diagnosis of infective endocarditis from Jan 1, 2000, to March 31, 2013. We compared the incidence of infective endocarditis before and after the introduction of the NICE guidelines using segmented regression analysis of the interrupted time series. Prescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis for the prevention of infective endocarditis fell substantially after introduction of the NICE guidance (mean 10,900 prescriptions per month [Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2008] vs 2236 prescriptions per month [April 1, 2008, to March 31, 2013], pinfective endocarditis increased significantly above the projected historical trend, by 0·11 cases per 10 million people per month (95% CI 0·05-0·16, pinfective endocarditis was significant for both individuals at high risk of infective endocarditis and those at lower risk. Although our data do not establish a causal association, prescriptions

  19. Do Japanese Work Shorter Hours than before?: Measuring Trends in Market Work and Leisure Using 1976-2006 Japanese Time-Use Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Kuroda, Sachiko

    2009-01-01

    Using Japanese time-use data from the Survey on Time Use and Leisure Activities (STULA), this paper measures trends in average hours worked (market work) and leisure for Japanese over the past three decades. OECD reports at least a 15 percent decline in market work for Japan since the 1970s. However, holding demographic changes constant, we found that market work per week increased from the 1970s until mid 1980s, and has been relatively stable for the last two decades for both male and female...

  20. Emerging trends in nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weinberg, A.M.

    1984-01-01

    Nuclear energy is faltering in many places - especially in the USA: should it be written off. The author sees underlying trends that justify a more optimistic view of nuclear energy's future - the continuing tendency for the electricity intensity of economic activity to rise while the total energy intensity falls; a consistently favourable price trend for electricity compared with energy prices generally - a trend that may become more favourable if his judgment that nuclear plants will turn out to be very long-lived is borne out by events; the substitution of electricity-based processes in industry for older processes; and the development of ultra-safe reactors which will remove once and for all the fears of accidents such as the one that occurred at Three Mile Island. (author)

  1. An evaluation of prescribing trends and patterns of claims within the Preferred Drugs Initiative in Ireland (2011-2016): an interrupted time-series study.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    McDowell, Ronald

    2018-04-20

    To examine the impact of the Preferred Drugs Initiative (PDI), an Irish health policy aimed at enhancing evidence-based cost-effective prescribing, on prescribing trends and the cost of prescription medicines across seven medication classes.

  2. Hydro-climatic trends and water resource management implications based on multi-scale data for the Lake Victoria region, Kenya

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koutsouris, A J; Destouni, G; Jarsjoe, J; Lyon, S W

    2010-01-01

    Unreliable rainfall may be a main cause of poverty in rural areas, such as the Kisumu district by Lake Victoria in Kenya. Climate change may further increase the negative effects of rainfall uncertainty. These effects could be mitigated to some extent through improved and adaptive water resource management and planning, which relies on our interpretations and projections of the coupled hydro-climatic system behaviour and its development trends. In order to identify and quantify the main differences and consistencies among such hydro-climatic assessments, this study investigates trends and exemplifies their use for important water management decisions for the Lake Victoria drainage basin (LVDB), based on local scale data for the Orongo village in the Kisumu district, and regional scale data for the whole LVDB. Results show low correlation between locally and regionally observed hydro-climatic trends, and large differences, which in turn affects assessments of important water resource management parameters. However, both data scales converge in indicating that observed local and regional hydrological discharge trends are primarily driven by local and regional water use and land use changes.

  3. Exploring historical trends using taxonomic name metadata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schenk Ryan

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Authority and year information have been attached to taxonomic names since Linnaean times. The systematic structure of taxonomic nomenclature facilitates the ability to develop tools that can be used to explore historical trends that may be associated with taxonomy. Results From the over 10.7 million taxonomic names that are part of the uBio system 4, approximately 3 million names were identified to have taxonomic authority information from the years 1750 to 2004. A pipe-delimited file was then generated, organized according to a Linnaean hierarchy and by years from 1750 to 2004, and imported into an Excel workbook. A series of macros were developed to create an Excel-based tool and a complementary Web site to explore the taxonomic data. A cursory and speculative analysis of the data reveals observable trends that may be attributable to significant events that are of both taxonomic (e.g., publishing of key monographs and societal importance (e.g., world wars. The findings also help quantify the number of taxonomic descriptions that may be made available through digitization initiatives. Conclusion Temporal organization of taxonomic data can be used to identify interesting biological epochs relative to historically significant events and ongoing efforts. We have developed an Excel workbook and complementary Web site that enables one to explore taxonomic trends for Linnaean taxonomic groupings, from Kingdoms to Families.

  4. A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

    OpenAIRE

    Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

  5. A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

    OpenAIRE

    Qi Gao; Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

  6. Time Trends in Murray's Psychogenic Needs over Three Decades in Swedish 75-Year-Olds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billstedt, Eva; Waern, Margda; Falk, Hanna; Duberstein, Paul; Östling, Svante; Hällström, Tore; Skoog, Ingmar

    2017-01-01

    While time trends in personality traits have been suggested in younger cohorts, little is known regarding this issue in older adults. To test for birth cohort changes in psychogenic needs according to Murray's theory of personality in two birth cohorts of 75-year-olds born 1901-1902 and 1930. Two population-based birth cohorts were examined at the age of 75 years in 1976-1977 and in 2005-2006. Psychogenic needs according to Murray were measured with the Cesarec-Marke Personality Schedule (CMPS), a Swedish version of the Edwards Personal Preference Schedule. Scores on the CMPS subscales (achievement, affiliation, aggression, defence of status, guilt feelings, dominance, exhibition, autonomy, nurturance, order, succorance, and acquiescence) were compared between cohorts. Achievement, exhibition, dominance, aggression, affiliation, and succorance scores were higher, and order and acquiescence scores lower, in the more recent birth cohort of 75-year-olds. Women scored lower than men on exhibition and dominance, and higher on defence of status, guilt feelings, affiliation, nurturance, and succorance. Interaction effects between cohort and sex were found for achievement (women scored lower than men in 1976-1977 but not in 2005-2006), order (the lower scores in 2005-2006 were more accentuated among men), and acquiescence (increased in men and decreased in women). The later-born birth cohort scored higher on self-centred traits, such as more dominant, competitive, and exhibitive traits as well as the need to be taken care of and have friends around, but it scored lower on the need for order. The gap between men and women regarding achievement decreased, possibly reflecting women's more prominent role in society. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  7. Estimated and forecasted trends in domain specific time-use and energy expenditure among adults in Russia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dearth-Wesley, Tracy; Popkin, Barry M; Ng, Shu Wen

    2014-01-30

    Examination of historical trends and projections in estimated energy expenditure in Russia is important given the country's economic downturns and growth. Nationally representative data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) from 1995-2011 was used to determine the metabolic equivalents of task (MET)-hours per week from occupational, domestic, travel, and active leisure physical activity (PA) domains, as well as sedentary leisure time (hours per week) among adults 18-60 years. Additionally, we projected what these values would be like in 2020 and 2030 if observed trends continue. Among male adults, the largest contributor to total PA was occupational PA followed by travel PA. In contrast, domestic PA followed by occupational PA contributed most to total PA among female adults. Total PA was 282.9 MET-hours per week in 1995 and declined to 231.7 in 2011. Total PA is projected to decrease to 216.5 MET-hours per week in 2020 and to 193.0 MET-hours per week in 2030. The greatest relative declines are occurring in travel PA. Female adults are also exhibiting significant declines in domestic PA. Changes in occupational and active leisure PA are less distinct. Policies and initiatives are needed to counteract the long-term decline of overall physical activity linked with a modernizing lifestyle and economy among Russian adults.

  8. Did Medicare Part D Affect National Trends in Health Outcomes or Hospitalizations? A Time-Series Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briesacher, Becky A; Madden, Jeanne M; Zhang, Fang; Fouayzi, Hassan; Ross-Degnan, Dennis; Gurwitz, Jerry H; Soumerai, Stephen B

    2015-06-16

    Medicare Part D increased economic access to medications, but its effect on population-level health outcomes and use of other medical services remains unclear. To examine changes in health outcomes and medical services in the Medicare population after implementation of Part D. Population-level longitudinal time-series analysis with generalized linear models. Community. Nationally representative sample of Medicare beneficiaries (n = 56,293 [unweighted and unique]) from 2000 to 2010. Changes in self-reported health status, limitations in activities of daily living (ADLs) (ADLs and instrumental ADLs), emergency department visits and hospital admissions (prevalence, counts, and spending), and mortality. Medicare claims data were used for confirmatory analyses. Five years after Part D implementation, no clinically or statistically significant reductions in the prevalence of fair or poor health status or limitations in ADLs or instrumental ADLs, relative to historical trends, were detected. Compared with trends before Part D, no changes in emergency department visits, hospital admissions or days, inpatient costs, or mortality after Part D were seen. Confirmatory analyses were consistent. Only total population-level outcomes were studied. Self-reported measures may lack sensitivity. Five years after implementation, and contrary to previous reports, no evidence was found of Part D's effect on a range of population-level health indicators among Medicare enrollees. Further, there was no clear evidence of gains in medical care efficiencies.

  9. Trends in standardized mortality among individuals with schizophrenia, 1993–2012: a population-based, repeated cross-sectional study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatov, Evgenia; Rosella, Laura; Chiu, Maria; Kurdyak, Paul A.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: We examined mortality time trends and premature mortality among individuals with and without schizophrenia over a 20-year period. METHODS: In this population-based, repeated cross-sectional study, we identified all individual deaths that occurred in Ontario between 1993 and 2012 in persons aged 15 and over. We plotted overall and cause-specific age- and sex-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), stratified all-cause ASMR trends by sociodemographic characteristics, and analyzed premature mortality using years of potential life lost. Additionally, we calculated mortality rate ratios (MRRs) using negative binomial regression with adjustment for age, sex, income, rurality and year of death. RESULTS: We identified 31 349 deaths among persons with schizophrenia, and 1 589 902 deaths among those without schizophrenia. Mortality rates among people with schizophrenia were 3 times higher than among those without schizophrenia (adjusted MRR 3.12, 95% confidence interval 3.06–3.17). All-cause ASMRs in both groups declined in parallel over the study period, by about 35%, and were higher for men, for those with low income and for rural dwellers. The absolute ASMR difference also declined throughout the study period (from 16.15 to 10.49 deaths per 1000 persons). Cause-specific ASMRs were greater among those with schizophrenia, with circulatory conditions accounting for most deaths between 1993 and 2012, whereas neoplasms became the leading cause of death for those without schizophrenia after 2005. Individuals with schizophrenia also died, on average, 8 years younger than those without schizophrenia, losing more potential years of life. INTERPRETATION: Although mortality rates among people with schizophrenia have declined over the past 2 decades, specialized approaches may be required to close the persistent 3-fold relative mortality gap with the general population. PMID:28923795

  10. Trends in Biosensors for HPV: Identification and Diagnosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isaac A. M. Frías

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The conventional methodologies used for the detection of human papillomavirus (HPV present actually robust and reproducible advantages. However, at the same time, they involve complex protocols that sometimes are difficult to popularize. Over the first half of XX century, the adequate treatment of complex and delicate processes from a simple instrumental base seemed a fundamental and intrinsic contradiction. However, interdisciplinary trends have allowed the manipulation of tissues, proteins, and nucleic acids through innovative increasingly smaller devices. The proper diagnosis of HPV has seen great advances since biosensor researchers are employing its virus strains as models to study the interactions between the biorecognition element and the transducer. Additionally, all recent improvements and trends that material sciences, biotechnology, and data processing scientists excel for biosensors can be applied for the HPV detection platforms. In this review, we highlight the recent trends on materials, nanomaterials, and transducers for the specific detection and differentiation of HPV strains. The most influential methods for the detection and identification of these papillomaviruses include optical, electrochemical, and piezoelectric transducers; we will visit their sensibility and advantages. Additionally, we highlight the factors that contributed to the increasing importance of these biodevices as potential substitutes to conventional diagnostic methods.

  11. Predicting ICU hemodynamic instability using continuous multiparameter trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Hanqing; Eshelman, Larry; Chbat, Nicolas; Nielsen, Larry; Gross, Brian; Saeed, Mohammed

    2008-01-01

    Identifying hemodynamically unstable patients in a timely fashion in intensive care units (ICUs) is crucial because it can lead to earlier interventions and thus to potentially better patient outcomes. Current alert algorithms are typically limited to detecting dangerous conditions only after they have occurred and suffer from high false alert rates. Our objective was to predict hemodynamic instability at least two hours before a major clinical intervention (e.g., vasopressor administration), while maintaining a low false alert rate. From the MIMIC II database, containing ICU minute-by-minute heart rate (HR) and invasive arterial blood pressure (BP) monitoring trend data collected between 2001 and 2005, we identified 132 stable and 104 unstable patients that met our stability-instability criteria and had sufficient data points. We first derived additional physiological parameters of shock index, rate pressure product, heart rate variability, and two measures of trending based on HR and BP. Then we developed 220 statistical features and systematically selected a small set to use for classification. We applied multi-variable logistic regression modeling to do classification and implemented validation via bootstrapping. Area under receiver-operating curve (ROC) 0.83+/-0.03, sensitivity 0.75+/-0.06, and specificity 0.80+/-0.07; if the specificity is targeted at 0.90, then the sensitivity is 0.57+/-0.07. Based on our preliminary results, we conclude that the algorithms we developed using HR and BP trend data may provide a promising perspective toward reliable predictive alerts for hemodynamically unstable patients.

  12. Trend analysis and outcome prediction in mechanically ventilated patients: a nationwide population-based study in Taiwan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Jang Lee

    Full Text Available To investigate the relationship between changes in patient attributes and hospital attributes over time and to explore predictors of medical utilization and mortality rates in mechanical ventilation (MV patients in Taiwan.Providing effective medical care for MV patients is challenging and requires good planning and effective clinical decision making policies. Most studies of MV, however, have only analyzed a single regional ventilator weaning center or respiratory care unit, high-quality population-based studies of MV trends and outcomes are scarce.This population-based cohort study retrospectively analyzed 213,945 MV patients treated during 2004-2009.During the study period, the percentages of MV patients with the following characteristics significantly increased: age ≦ 65 years, treatment at a medical center, and treatment by a high-volume physician. In contrast, the percentages of MV patients treated at local hospitals and by low-volume physicians significantly decreased (P<0.001. Age, gender, Deyo-Charlson co-morbidity index, teaching hospital, hospital level, hospital volume, and physician volume were significantly associated with MV outcome (P<0.001. Over the 6-year period analyzed in this study, the estimated mean hospital treatment cost increased 48.8% whereas mean length of stay decreased 13.9%. The estimated mean overall survival time for MV patients was 16.4 months (SD 0.4 months, and the overall in-hospital 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were 61.0%, 36.7%, 17.3%, and 9.6%, respectively.These population-based data revealed increases in the percentages of MV patients treated at medical centers and by high-volume physicians, especially in younger patients. Notably, although LOS for MV patients decreased, hospital treatment costs increased. Healthcare providers and patients should recognize that attributes of both the patient and the hospital may affect outcomes.

  13. CLIMATE CHANGE: LONG-TERM TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM OSCILLATIONS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Xin-quan; ZHANG Xin; QIAN Wei-hong

    2006-01-01

    Identifying the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction and instrumental data for the past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and various oscillations. Two long-term trends and the quasi-70-year oscillation were detected in the global temperature series for the last 140 years and the NH millennium series. One important feature was emphasized that temperature decreases slowly but it increases rapidly based on the analysis of different series. Benefits can be obtained of climate change from understanding various long-term trends and oscillations. Millennial temperature proxies from the natural climate system and time series of nonlinear model system are used in understanding the natural climate change and recognizing potential benefits by using the method of wavelet transform analysis. The results from numerical modeling show that major oscillations contained in numerical solutions on the interdecadal timescale are consistent with that of natural proxies. It seems that these oscillations in the climate change are not directly linked with the solar radiation as an external forcing. This investigation may conclude that the climate variability at the interdecadal timescale strongly depends on the internal nonlinear effects in the climate system.

  14. Measuring trends in leisure

    OpenAIRE

    Mark Aguiar; Erik Hurst

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we use five decades of time-use surveys to document trends in the allocation of time. We find that a dramatic increase in leisure time lies behind the relatively stable number of market hours worked (per working-age adult) between 1965 and 2003. Specifically, we show that leisure for men increased by 6-8 hours per week (driven by a decline in market work hours) and for women by 4-8 hours per week (driven by a decline in home production work hours). This increase in leisure corr...

  15. THE TREND AND DYNAMICSDISTRIBUTION OF THE JAKARTASTOCKEXCHANGE(JSXCOMPOSITE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edi Cahyono

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available In thispaperwe discuss the dynamics of the JakartaStock Exchange(JSXComposite.The dynamicsindicatesperformance indicator ofseveral industries inIndonesia.The data ispresented as time series. To predict the dynamicsfrom thedata, however,is still difficult. In general,it is almost impossible to predict suchdynamics for the case of high frequency data. Hence, we do not predict thedynamics. Rather, we seek the trend and the probability density function(pdf.For a ‘small’ periodof time, the pdf isbased on the assumption that the dynamicsis normally distributed. Mathematically speaking, this is a time averaging of data,and in some cases the data is presented in the form of candle sticks. The trend willbe approximated by a higher order polynomial function which is sought byapplying a least square methods. On the other hand, the probability densityfunction of the data within each candle stick is obtained bycomputingstandarddeviation ofthe data with respect to the trend inthe candle stick.

  16. Current trends in satellite based emergency mapping - the need for harmonisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, Stefan

    2013-04-01

    During the past years, the availability and use of satellite image data to support disaster management and humanitarian relief organisations has largely increased. The automation and data processing techniques are greatly improving as well as the capacity in accessing and processing satellite imagery in getting better globally. More and more global activities via the internet and through global organisations like the United Nations or the International Charter Space and Major Disaster engage in the topic, while at the same time, more and more national or local centres engage rapid mapping operations and activities. In order to make even more effective use of this very positive increase of capacity, for the sake of operational provision of analysis results, for fast validation of satellite derived damage assessments, for better cooperation in the joint inter agency generation of rapid mapping products and for general scientific use, rapid mapping results in general need to be better harmonized, if not even standardized. In this presentation, experiences from various years of rapid mapping gained by the DLR Center for satellite based Crisis Information (ZKI) within the context of the national activities, the International Charter Space and Major Disasters, GMES/Copernicus etc. are reported. Furthermore, an overview on how automation, quality assurance and optimization can be achieved through standard operation procedures within a rapid mapping workflow is given. Building on this long term rapid mapping experience, and building on the DLR initiative to set in pace an "International Working Group on Satellite Based Emergency Mapping" current trends in rapid mapping are discussed and thoughts on how the sharing of rapid mapping information can be optimized by harmonizing analysis results and data structures are presented. Such an harmonization of analysis procedures, nomenclatures and representations of data as well as meta data are the basis to better cooperate within

  17. Automating Trend Analysis for Spacecraft Constellations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, George; Cooter, Miranda; Updike, Clark; Carey, Everett; Mackey, Jennifer; Rykowski, Timothy; Powers, Edward I. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Spacecraft trend analysis is a vital mission operations function performed by satellite controllers and engineers, who perform detailed analyses of engineering telemetry data to diagnose subsystem faults and to detect trends that may potentially lead to degraded subsystem performance or failure in the future. It is this latter function that is of greatest importance, for careful trending can often predict or detect events that may lead to a spacecraft's entry into safe-hold. Early prediction and detection of such events could result in the avoidance of, or rapid return to service from, spacecraft safing, which not only results in reduced recovery costs but also in a higher overall level of service for the satellite system. Contemporary spacecraft trending activities are manually intensive and are primarily performed diagnostically after a fault occurs, rather than proactively to predict its occurrence. They also tend to rely on information systems and software that are oudated when compared to current technologies. When coupled with the fact that flight operations teams often have limited resources, proactive trending opportunities are limited, and detailed trend analysis is often reserved for critical responses to safe holds or other on-orbit events such as maneuvers. While the contemporary trend analysis approach has sufficed for current single-spacecraft operations, it will be unfeasible for NASA's planned and proposed space science constellations. Missions such as the Dynamics, Reconnection and Configuration Observatory (DRACO), for example, are planning to launch as many as 100 'nanospacecraft' to form a homogenous constellation. A simple extrapolation of resources and manpower based on single-spacecraft operations suggests that trending for such a large spacecraft fleet will be unmanageable, unwieldy, and cost-prohibitive. It is therefore imperative that an approach to automating the spacecraft trend analysis function be studied, developed, and applied to

  18. Safety system function trend indicator: Theory and test application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azarm, M.A.; Carbonaro, J.F.; Boccio, J.L.; Vesely, W.E.

    1989-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to summarize research conducted on the development and validation of quantitative indicators of safety performance. This work, performed under the Risk-Based Performance Indicator (RBPI) Project, FIN A-3295, for the Office of Research (RES), is considered part of NRC's Performance Indicator Program which is being coordinated through the Office for the Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD). The program originally focused on risk-based indicators at high levels of safety indices (e.g., core-damage frequency, functional unavailabilities, and sequence monitoring). The program was then redirected towards a more amenable goal, safety system unavailability indicators, mainly due to the lack of PRA models and plant data. In that regard, BNL published a technical report that introduced the concept of cycle-based indicators and also described various alternatives of monitoring safety system unavailabilities. Further simplification of these indicators was requested by NRC to facilitate their applications to all plants in a timely manner. This resulted in the development of Safety System Function Trend (SSFT) indicators which minimize the need for detailed system model as well as component history. The theoretical bases for these indicators were developed through various simulation studies to determine the ease of detecting a trend and/or unacceptable performance. These indicators, along with several other indicators, were then generated and compared using plant data as a part of a test application. The SSFT indicators, specifically, were constructed for a total of eight plants, consisting of two systems per plant. Emphasis was placed on examining relative changes, as well as the indicator's actual level. Both the trend and actual indicator level were found to be important in identifying plants with potential problems

  19. Sirenomelia in Argentina: Prevalence, geographic clusters and temporal trends analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groisman, Boris; Liascovich, Rosa; Gili, Juan Antonio; Barbero, Pablo; Bidondo, María Paz

    2016-07-01

    Sirenomelia is a severe malformation of the lower body characterized by a single medial lower limb and a variable combination of visceral abnormalities. Given that Sirenomelia is a very rare birth defect, epidemiological studies are scarce. The aim of this study is to evaluate prevalence, geographic clusters and time trends of sirenomelia in Argentina, using data from the National Network of Congenital Anomalies of Argentina (RENAC) from November 2009 until December 2014. This is a descriptive study using data from the RENAC, a hospital-based surveillance system for newborns affected with major morphological congenital anomalies. We calculated sirenomelia prevalence throughout the period, searched for geographical clusters, and evaluated time trends. The prevalence of confirmed cases of sirenomelia throughout the period was 2.35 per 100,000 births. Cluster analysis showed no statistically significant geographical aggregates. Time-trends analysis showed that the prevalence was higher in years 2009 to 2010. The observed prevalence was higher than the observed in previous epidemiological studies in other geographic regions. We observed a likely real increase in the initial period of our study. We used strict diagnostic criteria, excluding cases that only had clinical diagnosis of sirenomelia. Therefore, real prevalence could be even higher. This study did not show any geographic clusters. Because etiology of sirenomelia has not yet been established, studies of epidemiological features of this defect may contribute to define its causes. Birth Defects Research (Part A) 106:604-611, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. Educational Inequalities in Obesity among Mexican Women: Time-Trends from 1988 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez Ferrer, Carolina; McMunn, Anne; Rivera Dommarco, Juan A.; Brunner, Eric J.

    2014-01-01

    Background Obesity is one of the leading causes of global morbidity and mortality. Trends in educational inequalities in obesity prevalence among Mexican women have not been analysed systematically to date. Methods Data came from four nationally representative surveys (1988, 1999, 2006, and 2012) of a total of 51 220 non-pregnant women aged 20 to 49. Weight and height were measured during home visits. Education level (higher education, high school, secondary, primary or less) was self-reported. We analysed trends in relative and absolute educational inequalities in obesity prevalence separately for urban and rural areas. Results Nationally, age-standardised obesity prevalence increased from 9.3% to 33.7% over 25 years to 2012. Obesity prevalence was inversely associated with education level in urban areas at all survey waves. In rural areas, obesity prevalence increased markedly but there was no gradient with education level at any survey. The relative index of inequality in urban areas declined over the period (2.87 (95%CI: 1.94, 4.25) in 1988, 1.55 (95%CI: 1.33, 1.80) in 2012, trend pObesity increased 5.92 fold (95%CI: 4.03, 8.70) among urban women with higher education in the period 1988–2012 compared to 3.23 fold (95%CI: 2.88, 3.63) for urban women with primary or no education. The slope index of inequality increased in urban areas from 1988 to 2012. Over 0.5 M cases would be avoided if the obesity prevalence of women with primary or less education was the same as for women with higher education. Conclusions The expected inverse association between education and obesity was observed in urban areas of Mexico. The declining trend in relative educational inequalities in obesity was due to a greater increase in obesity prevalence among higher educated women. In rural areas there was no social gradient in the association between education level and obesity across the four surveys. PMID:24599098

  1. The contributions of risk factor trends and medical care to cardiovascular mortality trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezzati, Majid; Obermeyer, Ziad; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Mayosi, Bongani M; Elliott, Paul; Leon, David A

    2016-01-01

    Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are responsible for an estimated 17.5 million annual deaths in the world. If account is taken of population aging, death rates from CVDs are estimated to be steadily decreasing in the world as a whole, and in regions with reliable trend data. The declines in high-income countries and some countries in Latin America have been ongoing for decades with no indication of slowing. In high-income countries, these positive trends have broadly coincided with, and benefited from, declines in smoking and physiological risk factors like blood pressure and serum cholesterol. Improvements in medical care, including effective primary prevention through management of physiological risk factors, better diagnosis and treatment of acute CVDs, and post-hospital care of those with prior CVDs, are also likely to have contributed to declining CVD event and death rates, especially in the past 40 years. However, the measured risk factor and treatment variables neither explain why the decline began when it did, nor much of the similarities and differences in the start time and rate of the decline across countries or between men and women. There have been sharp changes and fluctuations in CVDs in the former communist countries of Europe and the Soviet Union since the fall of communism in the early 1990s, with changes in volume and patterns of alcohol drinking, as a major cause of the rise in Russia and some other former Soviet countries. The challenge of reaching more definitive conclusions concerning the drivers of what constitutes one of the most remarkable international trends in adult mortality in the past half-century in part reflects the paucity of time trend data not only on disease incidence, risk factors, and clinical care, but also on other potential drivers, including infection and associated inflammatory processes throughout the lifecourse. PMID:26076950

  2. Time trends in pediatric hospitalizations for hepatitis A in Greece (1999–2013): Assessment of the impact of universal infant immunization in 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papaevangelou, V.; Alexopoulou, Z.; Hadjichristodoulou, C.; Kourlamba, G.; Katsioulis, A.; Theodoridou, K.; Spoulou, V.; Theodoridou, M.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Hepatitis A vaccine was introduced in the Greek National Immunization Program in 2008. To estimate possible impact of the universal vaccination implementation, time trends of hospitalizations for hepatitis A at the Infectious Diseases Unit of a Tertiary Pediatric Hospital in Athens during 1999–2013 were analyzed. Hepatitis A hospitalizations were recorded from the discharge database and were expressed as frequencies and rate of annual departmental hospitalizations. Time series analysis (ARIMA) was used to explore trends and the impact of the vaccination. Moreover, changes in patient age, population group distribution and the duration of hospitalization were also examined. Hepatitis A hospitalizations rate significantly decreased between pre-vaccination (1999–2008) and post-vaccination (2009–2013) era from 50.5 to 20.8/1000 hospitalizations (p = 0.005). A 3-year periodicity and a trend of reduction on hepatitis A hospitalizations rates across years were noted. Roma children had significant higher rates of hepatitis A hospitalization, followed by immigrant children. Importantly, possibly due to preceding vaccine availability with considerable uptake in private market and unvaccinated group/pockets of children (Roma), overall vaccination effect was less apparent when compared to data from other countries that implemented universal vaccination. No significant change in patient age, population group distribution, or duration of hospitalization was observed. High risk groups such as Roma children should be targeted for vaccination to reduce future outbreaks. PMID:27141813

  3. Land Condition Trend Analysis Avian Database: Ecological Guild-based Summaries

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Schreiber, Eric

    1998-01-01

    Land Condition Trend Analysis (LCTA) bird database documentation capabilities often are limited to the generation of installation-wide species checklists, estimates of relative abundance, and evidence of breeding activity...

  4. A trending database for human performance events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, D.

    1993-01-01

    An effective Operations Experience program includes a standardized methodology for the investigation of unplanned events and a tool capable of retaining investigation data for the purpose of trending analysis. A database used in conjunction with a formalized investigation procedure for the purpose of trending unplanning event data is described. The database follows the structure of INPO's Human Performance Enhancement System for investigations. The database screens duplicate on-line the HPES evaluation Forms. All information pertaining to investigations is collected, retained and entered into the database using these forms. The database will be used for trending analysis to determine if any significant patterns exist, for tracking progress over time both within AECL and against industry standards, and for evaluating the success of corrective actions. Trending information will be used to help prevent similar occurrences

  5. Trends and risk factors of stillbirths and neonatal deaths in Eastern Uganda (1982-2011): a cross-sectional, population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kujala, Sanni; Waiswa, Peter; Kadobera, Daniel; Akuze, Joseph; Pariyo, George; Hanson, Claudia

    2017-01-01

    To identify mortality trends and risk factors associated with stillbirths and neonatal deaths 1982-2011. Population-based cross-sectional study based on reported pregnancy history in Iganga-Mayuge Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) in Uganda. A pregnancy history survey was conducted among women aged 15-49 years living in the HDSS during May-July 2011 (n = 10 540). Time trends were analysed with cubic splines and linear regression. Potential risk factors were examined with multilevel logistic regression with adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). 34 073 births from 1982 to 2011 were analysed. The annual rate of decrease was 0.9% for stillbirths and 1.8% for neonatal mortality. Stillbirths were associated with several risk factors: multiple births (AOR 2.57, CI 1.66-3.99), previous adverse outcome (AOR 6.16, CI 4.26-8.88) and grand multiparity among 35- to 49-year-olds (AOR 1.97, CI 1.32-2.89). Neonatal deaths were associated with multiple births (AOR 6.16, CI 4.80-7.92) and advanced maternal age linked with parity of 1-4 (AOR 2.34, CI 1.28-4.25) and grand multiparity (AOR 1.44, CI 1.09-1.90). Education, marital status and household wealth were not associated with the outcomes. The slow decline in mortality rates and easily identifiable risk factors calls for improving quality of care at birth and a rethinking of how to address obstetric risks, potentially a revival of the risk approach in antenatal care. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Long-term trends at the Boknis Eck time series station (Baltic Sea, 1957–2013: does climate change counteract the decline in eutrophication?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. T. Lennartz

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The Boknis Eck (BE time series station, initiated in 1957, is one of the longest-operated time series stations worldwide. We present the first statistical evaluation of a data set of nine physical, chemical and biological parameters in the period of 1957–2013. In the past three to five decades, all of the measured parameters underwent significant long-term changes. Most striking is an ongoing decline in bottom water oxygen concentration, despite a significant decrease of nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations. Temperature-enhanced oxygen consumption in the bottom water and a prolongation of the stratification period are discussed as possible reasons for the ongoing oxygen decline despite declining eutrophication. Observations at the BE station were compared with model output of the Kiel Baltic Sea Ice Ocean Model (BSIOM. Reproduced trends were in good agreement with observed trends for temperature and oxygen, but generally the oxygen concentration at the bottom has been overestimated.

  7. Century Scale Evaporation Trend: An Observational Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bounoui, Lahouari

    2012-01-01

    Several climate models with different complexity indicate that under increased CO2 forcing, runoff would increase faster than precipitation overland. However, observations over large U.S watersheds indicate otherwise. This inconsistency between models and observations suggests that there may be important feedbacks between climate and land surface unaccounted for in the present generation of models. We have analyzed century-scale observed annual runoff and precipitation time-series over several United States Geological Survey hydrological units covering large forested regions of the Eastern United States not affected by irrigation. Both time-series exhibit a positive long-term trend; however, in contrast to model results, these historic data records show that the rate of precipitation increases at roughly double the rate of runoff increase. We considered several hydrological processes to close the water budget and found that none of these processes acting alone could account for the total water excess generated by the observed difference between precipitation and runoff. We conclude that evaporation has increased over the period of observations and show that the increasing trend in precipitation minus runoff is correlated to observed increase in vegetation density based on the longest available global satellite record. The increase in vegetation density has important implications for climate; it slows but does not alleviate the projected warming associated with greenhouse gases emission.

  8. Temporal Trends in Disease Severity and Predicted Surgical Risk at the Time of Referral for Echocardiography in Patients Diagnosed with Aortic Stenosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ersboll, Mads; Samad, Zainab; Al Enezi, Fawaz

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Calcific aortic stenosis (AS) is the most common underlying pathology in patients undergoing heart valve surgery, with an expected increasing prevalence among the aging population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified the temporal trends in referral patterns, disease severity, and assoc......BACKGROUND: Calcific aortic stenosis (AS) is the most common underlying pathology in patients undergoing heart valve surgery, with an expected increasing prevalence among the aging population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified the temporal trends in referral patterns, disease severity......, and associated surgical risk among patients with AS between January 1, 1995 and December 31, 2012 at the Duke University Hospital. A total of 6103 patients had a finding of mild (n = 3303), moderate (n = 1648), or severe AS (n = 1152) in a native aortic valve. Overall presence of severe AS increased...... with a finding of severe AS, the proportion of patients aged older than 80 years increased to 51.0% in the most recent time period (2010-2012) compared with 32.6% in the preceding time period (P proportion of patients with a logistic EuroSCORE greater than 20...

  9. Changes in time-trends of nutrient intake from fortified and non-fortified food in German children and adolescents--15 year results of the DONALD study. Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sichert-Hellert, W; Kersting, M; Manz, F

    2001-04-01

    Although fortified products have played an increasing role in food marketing since the 1980s in Germany, data as to the consumption of fortified food is sparse. To assess long-term data on changes in fortified food supply or consumption patterns, nutrient intake, and time trends in the DONALD Study (Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed Study). Between 1985 and 2000 consumption of nutrient intake (total and from fortified foods) was evaluated and time trends in energy and nutrient intake were assessed on the basis of 3-day weighed dietary records (n = 4193) of 2-14 year-old males (n = 383) and females (n = 404) enrolled in the DONALD Study. Nutrient intake was expressed as percentage of the current German recommendations. Food products were defined as fortified if enriched with at least one of the following nutrients: Vitamin A or provitamin A carotenoids (summarised as Vitamin A), Vitamins E, B1, B2, B6, C, niacin, folate, calcium or iron. Nutrient supplements and medicine were excluded from this evaluation. Time trends were analysed using linear and non-linear regression models (PROC MIXED, SAS 6.12). In percent of German references [3], non-fortified food contributed to folate intake by 20-30%, to Vitamin E by about 40%, to Vitamin B1 by 50-65%, to Vitamin A, C, B2, calcium, iron by about 65-95%, and to Vitamin B6 and niacin intake by 100% and more. Fortified food alone provided no more than 5% of calcium intake, about 10-20% of iron, Vitamin A and folate intake, up to 40-50% of Vitamin C, B1, B2, E, niacin and up to 80% of Vitamin B6 intake. During the 15 year period of the DONALD Study with total food, we only found a significant linear time trend for Vitamin C, whereas significant non-linear time trends were found for calcium, Vitamin E, B1, B2, B6, niacin and folate. In the latter there was a uniform increase until 1994 and a decrease thereafter. For iron and Vitamin A no significant time trend could be identified. Only iron and

  10. Speed trends in male distance running.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy N Kruse

    Full Text Available The major cycling "Grand Tours" have shown an attenuation of performance over the last decade. This has been interpreted as circumstantial evidence that newer anti-doping strategies have reduced the use of performance-enhancing drugs. To examine this idea under more controlled conditions, speed trends for world class 5000 m, 10000 m, and marathon performances by men from 1980 to 2013 were analyzed. We obtained comprehensive records from the International Association of Athletics Federations, Association of Road Racing Statisticians, and the Track and Field All-time Performances database webpages. The top 40 performances for each event and year were selected for regression analysis. For the three distances, we noted cumulative performance improvements in the 1990s thru the mid-2000s. After the peak speed years of the mid 2000 s, there has been limited improvement in the 5000 m and 10,000 m and world records set during that time remain in place today, marking the longest period of time between new records since the early 1940s. By contrast marathon speed continues to increase and the world record has been lowered four times since 2007, including in 2013. While the speed trends for 5000 m and 10000 m track results parallel those seen in elite cycling, the marathon trends do not. We discuss a number of explanations other than improved anti-doping strategies that might account for these divergent findings.

  11. Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppick, Andrew; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Stein, Michael L.

    2017-06-01

    Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to de-emphasize physical and statistical assumptions: examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for internal variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. However, given a limited data record and the presence of internal variability, estimating radiatively forced temperature trends in the historical record necessarily requires some assumptions. Ostensibly empirical methods can also involve an inherent conflict in assumptions: they require data records that are short enough for naive trend models to be applicable, but long enough for long-timescale internal variability to be accounted for. In the context of global mean temperatures, empirical methods that appear to de-emphasize assumptions can therefore produce misleading inferences, because the trend over the twentieth century is complex and the scale of temporal correlation is long relative to the length of the data record. We illustrate here how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable trend estimates and can allow for a wider array of questions to be addressed. In particular, the model allows one to distinguish, within a single statistical framework, between uncertainties in the shorter-term vs. longer-term response to radiative forcing, with implications not only on historical trends but also on uncertainties in future projections. We also investigate the consequence on inferred uncertainties of the choice of a statistical description of internal variability. While nonparametric methods may seem to avoid making explicit assumptions, we demonstrate how even misspecified parametric statistical methods, if attuned to the

  12. An USB-based time measurement system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qin Xi; Liu Shubin; An Qi

    2010-01-01

    In this paper,we report the electronics of a timing measurement system of PTB(portable TDC board), which is a handy tool based on USB interface, customized for high precision time measurements without any crates. The time digitization is based on the High Performance TDC Chip (HPTDC). The real-time compensation for HPTDC outputs and the USB master logic are implemented in an ALTERA's Cyclone FPGA. The architecture design and logic design are described in detail. Test of the system showed a time resolution of 13.3 ps. (authors)

  13. TIME SERIES CHARACTERISTIC ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL, LAND USE AND FLOOD DISCHARGE BASED ON ARIMA BOX-JENKINS MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abror Abror

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Indonesia located in tropic area consists of wet season and dry season. However, in last few years, in river discharge in dry season is very little, but in contrary, in wet season, frequency of flood increases with sharp peak and increasingly great water elevation. The increased flood discharge may occur due to change in land use or change in rainfall characteristic. Both matters should get clarity. Therefore, a research should be done to analyze rainfall characteristic, land use and flood discharge in some watershed area (DAS quantitatively from time series data. The research was conducted in DAS Gintung in Parakankidang, DAS Gung in Danawarih, DAS Rambut in Cipero, DAS Kemiri in Sidapurna and DAS Comal in Nambo, located in Tegal Regency and Pemalang Regency in Central Java Province. This research activity consisted of three main steps: input, DAS system and output. Input is DAS determination and selection and searching secondary data. DAS system is early secondary data processing consisting of rainfall analysis, HSS GAMA I parameter, land type analysis and DAS land use. Output is final processing step that consisting of calculation of Tadashi Tanimoto, USSCS effective rainfall, flood discharge, ARIMA analysis, result analysis and conclusion. Analytical calculation of ARIMA Box-Jenkins time series used software Number Cruncher Statistical Systems and Power Analysis Sample Size (NCSS-PASS version 2000, which result in time series characteristic in form of time series pattern, mean square errors (MSE, root mean square ( RMS, autocorrelation of residual and trend. Result of this research indicates that composite CN and flood discharge is proportional that means when composite CN trend increase then flood discharge trend also increase and vice versa. Meanwhile, decrease of rainfall trend is not always followed with decrease in flood discharge trend. The main cause of flood discharge characteristic is DAS management characteristic, not change in

  14. Spinal Cord Injury due to Tumour or Metastasis in Aragón, Northeastern Spain (1991–2008: Incidence, Time Trends, and Neurological Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maayken Elizabeth Louise van den Berg

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Understanding the presentation of spinal cord injury (SCI due to tumours considering population distribution and temporal trends is key to managing SCI health services. This study quantified incidence rates, function scores, and trends of SCI due to tumour or metastasis over an 18-year time period in a defined region in Spain. Methods. A retrospective cohort study included in-and outpatients with nontraumatic SCI due to tumour or metastasis admitted to a metropolitan hospital in Spain between 1991 and 2008. Main outcome measures were crude and age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates, tumour location and type, distribution by spinal level, neurological level of injury, and impairment ASIA scores. Results. Primary tumour or metastasis accounted for 32.5% of nontraumatic SCI with an incidence rate of 4.1 per million population. Increasing rates with age and over time were observed. Major pathology groups were intradural-extramedullary masses from which meningiomas and neurinomas accounted for 40%. Lesions were mostly incomplete with predominant ASIA Grade D. Conclusions. Increasing incidence rates of tumour-related SCI over time in the middle-aged and the elderly suggest a growing need for neurooncology health resources in the future.

  15. Trends in Off-Label Prescribing of Sedatives, Hypnotics and Antidepressants among Children and Adolescents - A Danish, Nationwide Register-Based Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Eva Skovslund; Rasmussen, Lotte; Poulsen, Maja Hellfritzsch

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, psychotropic drug use among children and adolescents in Europe and USA has increased. However, the majority of psychotropic drugs are not formally approved for use in children and adolescents, and consequently, use is often off-label. The objectives were to describe time trends...... in off-label prescribing rates and the most commonly used types of psychotropic drugs by age and gender in Danish children and adolescents. Using the Register of Medicinal Product Statistics, we identified all prescriptions for sedatives, hypnotics and antidepressants filled for children and adolescents......, we found decreasing trends in off-label rates over time [range 94.5-65.6% (girls), 93.8-71.2% (boys)]. Off-label prescribing of psychotropic drugs to Danish children and adolescents is common. Off-label rates for sedatives and hypnotics increased in the period of 2006-2012, whereas off-label rates...

  16. A discrete wavelet spectrum approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sang, Yan-Fang; Sun, Fubao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xie, Ping; Sun, Jian

    2018-01-01

    The hydroclimatic process is changing non-monotonically and identifying its trends is a great challenge. Building on the discrete wavelet transform theory, we developed a discrete wavelet spectrum (DWS) approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate time series and evaluating their statistical significance. After validating the DWS approach using two typical synthetic time series, we examined annual temperature and potential evaporation over China from 1961-2013 and found that the DWS approach detected both the warming and the warming hiatus in temperature, and the reversed changes in potential evaporation. Further, the identified non-monotonic trends showed stable significance when the time series was longer than 30 years or so (i.e. the widely defined climate timescale). The significance of trends in potential evaporation measured at 150 stations in China, with an obvious non-monotonic trend, was underestimated and was not detected by the Mann-Kendall test. Comparatively, the DWS approach overcame the problem and detected those significant non-monotonic trends at 380 stations, which helped understand and interpret the spatiotemporal variability in the hydroclimatic process. Our results suggest that non-monotonic trends of hydroclimate time series and their significance should be carefully identified, and the DWS approach proposed has the potential for wide use in the hydrological and climate sciences.

  17. Hospital-based colorectal cancer survival trend of different tumor locations from 1960s to 2000s.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Jing Fang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Our aim is to explore the trend of association between the survival rates of colorectal cancer (CRC and the different clinical characteristics in patients registered from 1960s to 2000s. We hypothesized that the survival rate of CRC increases over time and varies according to anatomic subsites. METHODS: Information from a total of 4558 stage T(1-4N(1-2M0 CRC patients registered from 1960s to 2008 were analyzed. The association of CRC overall survival with age, gender, tumor locations, time, histopathology types, pathology grades, no. of examined lymph nodes, the T stage, and the N stage was analyzed. The assessment of the influence of prognostic factors on patient survival was performed using Cox's proportional hazard regression models. RESULTS: From 1960 to 2008, the studied CRC patients included 2625 (57.6% and 1933 (42.4% males and females, respectively. These included 1896 (41.6% colon cancers, and 2662 (58.4% rectum cancers. The 5-year survival rate was 49%, 58%, 58%, 70%, and 77% for the time duration of 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively. An increased 5-year survival rate was observed in the colon cancer and rectum cancer patients. Patients older than 60 years of age were more likely to develop colonic cancer (sigmoid than rectum cancer (49.2% vs. 39.9%. The Cox regression model showed that only rectum cancer survival was related to time duration. CONCLUSION: The overall survival and 5-year survival rates showed an increase from the 1960s to 2000s. There is a trend of rightward shift of tumor location in CRC patients.

  18. Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royston, Sam; Watson, Christopher S.; Legrésy, Benoît; King, Matt A.; Church, John A.; Bos, Machiel S.

    2018-03-01

    Recent studies have identified climatic drivers of the east-west see-saw of Pacific Ocean satellite altimetry era sea level trends and a number of sea-level trend and acceleration assessments attempt to account for this. We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally-correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time-of-emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea-level trend studies often advocate the use of auto-regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non-AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over- or under-estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo-Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long-duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south-west and north-east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea-level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades.

  19. Three Decades of Remote Sensing Based Tropical Forests Phenological Patterns and Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Didan, K.

    2010-12-01

    The faint climatic seasonality of tropical rain forests is believed to be the reason these biomes lack strong and detectable seasonality. Forest seasonality is a critical element of ecosystem functions. It moderates the echo-hydrology, carbon, and nutrient exchange of the area. While deciduous forests exhibit distinct and strong seasonality, tropical forests do not, yet they play a large role in the cycling of energy and mass. Tropical forests represent a large percentage of vegetated land and their importance to the Earth system stems from their biological diversity, their habitat role, their role in regulating global weather, and the role they play in carbon storage. While Tropical forests are well buffered by their sheer size, their vulnerability to climate change is exacerbated by the human pressure. All of this begs the questions of what are the patterns and characteristic of tropical forests phenology and are there any detectable trends over the last three decades of synoptic remote sensing. These three decades comprise different episodes of droughts and an ever increasing level of human encroachment. In so far understanding the function and dynamic of these biomes, field studies continue to play a major role, but synoptic remote sensing is emerging as a viable tool to addressing the spatial and temporal scale associated with this problem. Recent studies of Brazilian rainforest with synoptic remote sensing point to a sizable seasonal signal coincident with the dry season. However, these studies were not extensive in time or space and did not look at other rainforests. Using data from AVHRR and MODIS, we generated a 30 year record of the 2 bands Enhance Vegetation Index (EVI2), and analyzed the patterns and trends of land surface phenology across all tropical forests using the homogeneous phenology cluster approach. We chose EVI because of its superior performance over these dense forests, and we selected the homogeneous phenology cluster approach to abate the

  20. Prevalence and time trends in diabetes and physical inactivity among adult West African populations: the epidemic has arrived.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abubakari, A R; Lauder, W; Jones, M C; Kirk, A; Agyemang, C; Bhopal, R S

    2009-09-01

    To determine the prevalence and distribution of, and trends in, physical inactivity and diabetes in adult West African populations. Systematic review and meta-analysis. Literature searches were conducted using four electronic databases. Journal hand searches and examination of citations of relevant articles were also undertaken. To be included, studies had to be population based, use clearly defined criteria for measuring diabetes and physical inactivity, present data that allowed calculation of the prevalence of diabetes or physical inactivity, and sample adult participants. Studies retrieved were appraised critically. Meta-analysis was performed using the DerSimonian-Laird random effect model. Twenty-one reports were retrieved for diabetes and 15 reports were retrieved for physical in/activity. Most studies (10 for diabetes and six for physical activity) were conducted solely among urban populations. The prevalence of diabetes in West Africa was approximately 4.0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.0-9.0] in urban adults and 2.6% (95%CI 1.5-4.4) in rural adults, and was similar in men and women [prevalence ratio (PR) 1.36, 95%CI 0.96-1.92]. Cumulative time trend analyses suggested an increase in the prevalence of diabetes among adults in urban West Africa, from approximately 3.0% (95%CI 1.0-7.0) to 4.0% (95%CI 2.0-9.0) in the past 10 years. The prevalence of inactivity in West Africa was 13% (95%CI 9.0-18.0). An association was found between physical inactivity and being older (> or = 50 years) (PR 1.82, 95%CI 1.36-2.44), female gender (PR 1.62, 95%CI 1.41-1.87) and urban residence (PR 2.04, 95%CI 1.58-2.63). Diabetes and physical inactivity are important public health issues in urban West Africa, with similar prevalences to wealthy industrialized countries. There is an urgent need for policy makers, politicians and health promotion experts to put measures in place to encourage active lifestyles and control diabetes in urban West Africa.