WorldWideScience

Sample records for based time trends

  1. Symbolic representation based on trend features for knowledge discovery in long time series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hong YIN; Shu-qiang YANG; Xiao-qian ZHU; Shao-dong MA; Lu-min ZHANG

    2015-01-01

    The symbolic representation of time series has attracted much research interest recently. The high dimensionality typical of the data is challenging, especially as the time series becomes longer. The wide distribution of sensors collecting more and more data exacerbates the problem. Representing a time series effectively is an essential task for decision-making activities such as classification, prediction, and knowledge discovery. In this paper, we propose a new symbolic representation method for long time series based on trend features, called trend feature symbolic approximation (TFSA). The method uses a two-step mechanism to segment long time series rapidly. Unlike some previous symbolic methods, it focuses on retaining most of the trend features and patterns of the original series. A time series is represented by trend symbols, which are also suitable for use in knowledge discovery, such as association rules mining. TFSA provides the lower bounding guarantee. Experimental results show that, compared with some previous methods, it not only has better segmentation efficiency and classification accuracy, but also is applicable for use in knowledge discovery from time series.

  2. Analysis of the Main Factors Influencing Food Production in China Based on Time Series Trend Chart

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shuangjin; WANG; Jianying; LI

    2014-01-01

    Based on the annual sample data on food production in China since the reform and opening up,we select 8 main factors influencing the total food production( growing area,application rate of chemical fertilizer,effective irrigation area,the affected area,total machinery power,food production cost index,food production price index,financial funds for supporting agriculture,farmers and countryside),and put them into categories of material input,resources and environment,and policy factors. Using the factor analysis,we carry out the multi-angle analysis of these typical influencing factors one by one through the time series trend chart. It is found that application rate of chemical fertilizer,the growing area of food crops and drought-affected area become the key factors affecting food production. On this basis,we set forth the corresponding recommendations for improving the comprehensive food production capacity.

  3. Recent trends in agricultural production of Africa based on AVHRR NDVI time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vrieling, Anton; de Beurs, Kirsten M.; Brown, Molly E.

    2008-10-01

    African agriculture is expected to be hard-hit by ongoing climate change. Effects are heterogeneous within the continent, but in some regions resulting production declines have already impacted food security. Time series of remote sensing data allow us to examine where persistent changes occur. In this study, we propose to examine recent trends in agricultural production using 26 years of NDVI data. We use the 8-km resolution AVHRR NDVI 15-day composites of the GIMMS group (1981-2006). Temporal data-filtering is applied using an iterative Savitzky-Golay algorithm to remove noise in the time series. Except for some regions with persistent cloud cover, this filter produced smooth profiles. Subsequently two methods were used to extract phenology indicators from the profiles for each raster cell. These indicators include start of season, length of season, time of maximum NDVI, maximum NDVI, and cumulated NDVI over the season. Having extracted the indicators for every year, we aggregate them for agricultural areas at sub-national level using a crop mask. The aggregation was done to focus the analysis on agriculture, and allow future comparison with yield statistics. Trend analysis was performed for yearly aggregated indicators to assess where persistent change occurred during the 26-year period. Results show that the phenology extraction method chosen has an important influence on trend outcomes. Consistent trends suggest a rising yield trend for 500-1100 mm rainfall zones ranging from Senegal to Sudan. Negative yield trends are expected for the southern Atlantic coast of West Africa, and for western Tanzania.

  4. Modeling pollen time series using seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOESS smoothing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojo, Jesús; Rivero, Rosario; Romero-Morte, Jorge; Fernández-González, Federico; Pérez-Badia, Rosa

    2016-08-01

    Analysis of airborne pollen concentrations provides valuable information on plant phenology and is thus a useful tool in agriculture—for predicting harvests in crops such as the olive and for deciding when to apply phytosanitary treatments—as well as in medicine and the environmental sciences. Variations in airborne pollen concentrations, moreover, are indicators of changing plant life cycles. By modeling pollen time series, we can not only identify the variables influencing pollen levels but also predict future pollen concentrations. In this study, airborne pollen time series were modeled using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOcally wEighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS) smoothing (STL). The data series—daily Poaceae pollen concentrations over the period 2006-2014—was broken up into seasonal and residual (stochastic) components. The seasonal component was compared with data on Poaceae flowering phenology obtained by field sampling. Residuals were fitted to a model generated from daily temperature and rainfall values, and daily pollen concentrations, using partial least squares regression (PLSR). This method was then applied to predict daily pollen concentrations for 2014 (independent validation data) using results for the seasonal component of the time series and estimates of the residual component for the period 2006-2013. Correlation between predicted and observed values was r = 0.79 (correlation coefficient) for the pre-peak period (i.e., the period prior to the peak pollen concentration) and r = 0.63 for the post-peak period. Separate analysis of each of the components of the pollen data series enables the sources of variability to be identified more accurately than by analysis of the original non-decomposed data series, and for this reason, this procedure has proved to be a suitable technique for analyzing the main environmental factors influencing airborne pollen concentrations.

  5. Modeling pollen time series using seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOESS smoothing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojo, Jesús; Rivero, Rosario; Romero-Morte, Jorge; Fernández-González, Federico; Pérez-Badia, Rosa

    2017-02-01

    Analysis of airborne pollen concentrations provides valuable information on plant phenology and is thus a useful tool in agriculture—for predicting harvests in crops such as the olive and for deciding when to apply phytosanitary treatments—as well as in medicine and the environmental sciences. Variations in airborne pollen concentrations, moreover, are indicators of changing plant life cycles. By modeling pollen time series, we can not only identify the variables influencing pollen levels but also predict future pollen concentrations. In this study, airborne pollen time series were modeled using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOcally wEighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS) smoothing (STL). The data series—daily Poaceae pollen concentrations over the period 2006-2014—was broken up into seasonal and residual (stochastic) components. The seasonal component was compared with data on Poaceae flowering phenology obtained by field sampling. Residuals were fitted to a model generated from daily temperature and rainfall values, and daily pollen concentrations, using partial least squares regression (PLSR). This method was then applied to predict daily pollen concentrations for 2014 (independent validation data) using results for the seasonal component of the time series and estimates of the residual component for the period 2006-2013. Correlation between predicted and observed values was r = 0.79 (correlation coefficient) for the pre-peak period (i.e., the period prior to the peak pollen concentration) and r = 0.63 for the post-peak period. Separate analysis of each of the components of the pollen data series enables the sources of variability to be identified more accurately than by analysis of the original non-decomposed data series, and for this reason, this procedure has proved to be a suitable technique for analyzing the main environmental factors influencing airborne pollen concentrations.

  6. Multi-sliding time windows based changing trend of mean temperature and its association with the global-warming hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Yan; Zhai, Panmao; Jiang, Zhihong

    2016-04-01

    Based on three global annual mean surface temperature time series and three Chinese annual mean surface air temperature time series, climate change trends on multiple timescales are analyzed by using the trend estimation method of multi-sliding time windows. The results are used to discuss the so-called global-warming hiatus during 1998-2012. It is demonstrated that different beginning and end times have an obvious effect on the results of the trend estimation, and the implications are particularly large when using a short window. The global-warming hiatus during 1998-2012 is the result of viewing temperature series on short timescales; and the events similar to it, or the events with even cold tendencies, have actually occurred many times in history. Therefore, the global-warming hiatus is likely to be a periodical feature of the long-term temperature change. It mainly reflects the decadal variability of temperature, and such a phenomenon in the short term does not alter the overall warming trend in the long term.

  7. Multi-Sliding Time Windows Based Changing Trend of Mean Temperature and Its Association with the Global-Warming Hiatus

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    石岩; 翟盘茂; 江志红

    2016-01-01

    Based on three global annual mean surface temperature time series and three Chinese annual mean surface air temperature time series, climate change trends on multiple timescales are analyzed by using the trend estimation method of multi-sliding time windows. The results are used to discuss the so-called global-warming hiatus during 1998–2012. It is demonstrated that different beginning and end times have an obvious effect on the results of the trend estimation, and the implications are particularly large when using a short window. The global-warming hiatus during 1998–2012 is the result of viewing temperature series on short timescales;and the events similar to it, or the events with even cold tendencies, have actually occurred many times in history. Therefore, the global-warming hiatus is likely to be a periodical feature of the long-term temperature change. It mainly reflects the decadal variability of temperature, and such a phenomenon in the short term does not alter the overall warming trend in the long term.

  8. Contrasting trends in light pollution across Europe based on satellite observed night time lights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennie, Jonathan; Davies, Thomas W.; Duffy, James P.; Inger, Richard; Gaston, Kevin J.

    2014-01-01

    Since the 1970s nighttime satellite images of the Earth from space have provided a striking illustration of the extent of artificial light. Meanwhile, growing awareness of adverse impacts of artificial light at night on scientific astronomy, human health, ecological processes and aesthetic enjoyment of the night sky has led to recognition of light pollution as a significant global environmental issue. Links between economic activity, population growth and artificial light are well documented in rapidly developing regions. Applying a novel method to analysis of satellite images of European nighttime lights over 15 years, we show that while the continental trend is towards increasing brightness, some economically developed regions show more complex patterns with large areas decreasing in observed brightness over this period. This highlights that opportunities exist to constrain and even reduce the environmental impact of artificial light pollution while delivering cost and energy-saving benefits.

  9. Potentially avoidable hospitalizations in five European countries in 2009 and time trends from 2002 to 2009 based on administrative data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thygesen, Lau C; Christiansen, Terkel; Garcia-Armesto, Sandra;

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Potentially avoidable hospitalizations in chronic conditions are used to evaluate health-care performance. However, evidence comparing different countries at small geographical areas is still scarce. The aim of the present study is to describe and discuss differences in rates and time-trends......, behaviour of the five health-care systems with regard to chronic care....

  10. Trend prediction of chaotic time series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Aiguo; Zhao Cai; Li Zhanhuai

    2007-01-01

    To predict the trend of chaotic time series in time series analysis and time series data mining fields, a novel predicting algorithm of chaotic time series trend is presented, and an on-line segmenting algorithm is proposed to convert a time series into a binary string according to ascending or descending trend of each subsequence. The on-line segmenting algorithm is independent of the prior knowledge about time series. The naive Bayesian algorithm is then employed to predict the trend of chaotic time series according to the binary string. The experimental results of three chaotic time series demonstrate that the proposed method predicts the ascending or descending trend of chaotic time series with few error.

  11. "Once upon a time in the Mediterranean" long term trends of Mediterranean fisheries resources based on fishers' Traditional Ecological Knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damalas, Dimitrios; Maravelias, Christos D; Osio, Giacomo C; Maynou, Francesc; Sbrana, Mario; Sartor, Paolo

    2015-01-01

    We investigate long-term changes in the Mediterranean marine resources driving the trawl fisheries by analysing fishers' perceptions (Traditional Ecological Knowledge, TEK) throughout the Mediterranean Sea during the last 80 years. To this end, we conducted an extended set of interviews with experienced fishers that enabled us to classify species (or taxa) as 'decreasing' or 'increasing' both in terms of abundance, as well as average size in the catch. The aspect that most clearly emerged in all the investigated areas over time was the notable increase of fishing capacity indicators, such as engine power and fishing depth range. Atlantic mackerel, poor cod, scorpionfishes, striped seabream, and John Dory demonstrated a decreasing trend in the fishers' perceived abundance, while Mediterranean parrotfish, common pandora, cuttlefish, blue and red shrimp, and mullets gave indications of an increasing temporal trend. Although, as a rule, trawler captains did not report any cataclysmic changes (e.g. extinctions), when they were invited to estimate total catches, a clear decreasing pattern emerged; this being a notable finding taking into account the steep escalation of fishing efficiency during the past century. The overall deteriorating status of stocks in most Mediterranean regions calls for responsible management and design of rebuilding plans. This should include historical information accounting for past exploitation patterns that could help defining a baseline of fish abundance prior to heavy industrial fisheries exploitation.

  12. Disentangling the roles of mammographic screening and HRT in recent breast cancer incidence trends in italy by analyses based on calendar time and time since screening activation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crocetti, Emanuele; Buzzoni, Carlotta; Falcini, Fabio; Cortesi, Laura; De Lisi, Vincenzo; Ferretti, Stefano; Tumino, Rosario; Russo, Antonio; Paci, Eugenio

    2010-01-01

    The aim of the study was to evaluate the roles of screening activation and hormone replacement therapy discontinuation on the recent declining breast cancer incidence trends in Italy. We analyzed 41,358 invasive female breast cancers incident during 1991-2004 in six Italian population-based cancer registries. Overall and age-specific incidence trends were evaluated using Joinpoint analysis. In addition to calendar years, data were analyzed on a years-since-screening-activation basis. Annual percentage change of standardized rates was computed. There were statistically significant increasing trends for women 40-44 and 45-49 years that did not change after screening activation. On the contrary, for women 50-69 years old and for those 70+ years, the increasing trends flattened around 2 years after screening activation. The prevalence of hormone replacement therapy use in Italy is and was rather low. In conclusion, the recent tendency toward stabilization observed in Italy for female breast cancer incidence rates in women aged 50 years or more follows the introduction of mammographic screening.

  13. Time trends in outcome of subarachnoid hemorrhage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovelock, C.E.; Rinkel, G.J.E.; Rothwell, P.M.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Treatment of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) has changed substantially over the last 25 years but there is a lack of reliable population-based data on whether case-fatality or functional outcomes have improved. Methods: We determined changes in the standardized incidence and outcome of SAH in the same population between 1981 and 1986 (Oxford Community Stroke Project) and 2002 and 2008 (Oxford Vascular Study). In a meta-analysis with other population-based studies, we used linear regression to determine time trends in outcome. Results: There were no reductions in incidence of SAH (RR = 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.48–1.29, p = 0.34) and in 30-day case-fatality (RR = 0.67, 95% CI 0.39–1.13, p = 0.14) in the Oxford Vascular Study vs Oxford Community Stroke Project, but there was a decrease in overall mortality (RR = 0.47, 0.23–0.97, p = 0.04). Following adjustment for age and baseline SAH severity, patients surviving to hospital had reduced risk of death or dependency (modified Rankin score > 3) at 12 months in the Oxford Vascular Study (RR = 0.51, 0.29–0.88, p = 0.01). Among 32 studies covering 39 study periods from 1980 to 2005, 7 studied time trends within single populations. Unadjusted case-fatality fell by 0.9% per annum (0.3–1.5, p = 0.007) in a meta-analysis of data from all studies, and by 0.9% per annum (0.2–1.6%, p = 0.01) within the 7 population studies. Conclusion: Mortality due to subarachnoid hemorrhage fell by about 50% in our study population over the last 2 decades, due mainly to improved outcomes in cases surviving to reach hospital. This improvement is consistent with a significant decrease in case-fatality over the last 25 years in our pooled analysis of other similar population-based studies. GLOSSARY CI = confidence interval; mRS = modified Rankin score; OCSP = Oxford Community Stroke Project; OXVASC = Oxford Vascular Study; SAH = subarachnoid hemorrhage; WFNS = World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies

  14. Trend prediction of chaotic time series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Trend prediction of chaotic ti me series is anin-teresting probleminti me series analysis andti me se-ries data mining(TSDM)fields[1].TSDM-basedmethods can successfully characterize and predictcomplex,irregular,and chaotic ti me series.Somemethods have been proposed to predict the trend ofchaotic ti me series.In our knowledge,these meth-ods can be classified into t wo categories as follows.The first category is based on the embeddedspace[2-3],where rawti me series data is mapped to areconstructed phase spac...

  15. In search of functional association from time-series microarray data based on the change trend and level of gene expression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeng An-Ping

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The increasing availability of time-series expression data opens up new possibilities to study functional linkages of genes. Present methods used to infer functional linkages between genes from expression data are mainly based on a point-to-point comparison. Change trends between consecutive time points in time-series data have been so far not well explored. Results In this work we present a new method based on extracting main features of the change trend and level of gene expression between consecutive time points. The method, termed as trend correlation (TC, includes two major steps: 1, calculating a maximal local alignment of change trend score by dynamic programming and a change trend correlation coefficient between the maximal matched change levels of each gene pair; 2, inferring relationships of gene pairs based on two statistical extraction procedures. The new method considers time shifts and inverted relationships in a similar way as the local clustering (LC method but the latter is merely based on a point-to-point comparison. The TC method is demonstrated with data from yeast cell cycle and compared with the LC method and the widely used Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC based clustering method. The biological significance of the gene pairs is examined with several large-scale yeast databases. Although the TC method predicts an overall lower number of gene pairs than the other two methods at a same p-value threshold, the additional number of gene pairs inferred by the TC method is considerable: e.g. 20.5% compared with the LC method and 49.6% with the PCC method for a p-value threshold of 2.7E-3. Moreover, the percentage of the inferred gene pairs consistent with databases by our method is generally higher than the LC method and similar to the PCC method. A significant number of the gene pairs only inferred by the TC method are process-identity or function-similarity pairs or have well-documented biological

  16. A practical procedure for the selection of time-to-failure models based on the assessment of trends in maintenance data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Louit, D.M. [Komatsu Chile, Av. Americo Vespucio 0631, Quilicura, Santiago (Chile)], E-mail: rpascual@ing.puc.cl; Pascual, R. [Centro de Mineria, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Av. Vicuna Mackenna 4860, Santiago (Chile); Jardine, A.K.S. [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto, 5 King' s College Road, Toronto, Ont., M5S 3G8 (Canada)

    2009-10-15

    Many times, reliability studies rely on false premises such as independent and identically distributed time between failures assumption (renewal process). This can lead to erroneous model selection for the time to failure of a particular component or system, which can in turn lead to wrong conclusions and decisions. A strong statistical focus, a lack of a systematic approach and sometimes inadequate theoretical background seem to have made it difficult for maintenance analysts to adopt the necessary stage of data testing before the selection of a suitable model. In this paper, a framework for model selection to represent the failure process for a component or system is presented, based on a review of available trend tests. The paper focuses only on single-time-variable models and is primarily directed to analysts responsible for reliability analyses in an industrial maintenance environment. The model selection framework is directed towards the discrimination between the use of statistical distributions to represent the time to failure ('renewal approach'); and the use of stochastic point processes ('repairable systems approach'), when there may be the presence of system ageing or reliability growth. An illustrative example based on failure data from a fleet of backhoes is included.

  17. Persistence and Time Trends in the Temperatures in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis A. Gil-Alana

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the analysis of the temperatures in several locations in Spain during the last 50 years. We focus on the degree of persistence of the series, measured through a fractional differencing parameter. This is crucial to properly estimate the parameters of the time trend coefficients in order to determine the degree of warming in the area. The results indicate that all series are fractionally integrated with orders of integration ranging between 0 and 0.5. Moreover, the time trend coefficients are all positive though they are statistically insignificant, which is in contrast with the results based on nonfractional integration.

  18. Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

    2013-01-01

    Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

  19. Time trends in the prevalence and epidemiological characteristics of neural tube defects in Liaoning Province, China, 2006-2015: A population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tie-Ning; Gong, Ting-Ting; Chen, Yan-Ling; Wu, Qi-Jun; Zhang, Yuan; Jiang, Cheng-Zhi; Li, Jing; Li, Li-Li; Zhou, Chen; Huang, Yan-Hong

    2017-02-03

    To evaluate the time trends in the prevalence of neural tube defects and all their subtypes as well as to identify the epidemiological characteristics of these malformations documented in the Liaoning Province of northeast China from 2006 to 2015. This was a population-based observational study using data from 3,248,954 live births as well as from 6217 cases of neural tube defects, 1,600 cases of anencephaly, 2,029 cases of spina bifida, 404 cases of encephalocele, and 3,008 cases of congenital hydrocephalus from 14 cities in Liaoning Province from 2006 to 2015. All analyses were conducted using SPSS software. During the observational period, the prevalence of neural tube defects, anencephaly, spina bifida, encephalocele, and congenital hydrocephalus was 19.1, 4.9, 6.2, 1.2, and 9.3 per 10,000 live births, respectively. Significantly decreasing trends were observed in the prevalence of all these malformations except for encephalocele. Notably, relatively higher prevalence rates were found in isolated compared with non-isolated malformations, with significant differences in selected characteristics (e.g., prognosis status, gestational age, and birth weight) between isolated and non-isolated cases of these malformations. The prevalence of neural tube defects showed a downward trend in Liaoning Province from 2006 to 2015. However, more attention should be focused on non-isolated cases in the future because of the severe clinical manifestations. Future prevention efforts should be strengthened to reduce the risk of these malformations, especially the non-isolated subtype, in areas with high prevalence.

  20. Seasonal adjustment methods and real time trend-cycle estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Bee Dagum, Estela

    2016-01-01

    This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportat...

  1. Time Trends over 16 Years in Incidence-Rates of Autism Spectrum Disorders across the Lifespan Based on Nationwide Danish Register Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Christina Mohr; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Lauritsen, Marlene Briciet

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated time trends and associated factors of incidence rates of diagnosed autism spectrum disorders (ASD) across the lifespan from 1995 to 2010, using data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry. First time diagnosis of childhood autism, atypical autism, Asperger's syndrome, or pervasive developmental…

  2. Time Trends in Bullying Behavior in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieno, Alessio; Lenzi, Michela; Gini, Gianluca; Pozzoli, Tiziana; Cavallo, Franco; Santinello, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    Background: Given the severity of outcomes associated with involvement in bullying and the resources spent in an effort to reduce its prevalence, it is important to investigate trends in the bullying's occurrence. The main aim of this study was to identify trends from 2002 to 2010 in prevalence of bullying and victimization among Italian…

  3. Time trends in axilla management among early breast cancer patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gondos, Adam; Jansen, Lina; Heil, Jörg;

    2016-01-01

    Background We examined time trends in axilla management among patients with early breast cancer in European clinical settings. Material and methods EUROCANPlatform partners, including population-based and cancer center-specific registries, provided routinely available clinical cancer registry data...... for a comparative study of axillary management trends among patients with first non-metastatic breast cancer who were not selected for neoadjuvant therapy during the last decade. We used an additional short questionnaire to compare clinical care patterns in 2014. Results Patients treated in cancer centers were...... younger than population-based registry populations. Tumor size and lymph node status distributions varied little between settings or over time. In 2003, sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) use varied between 26% and 81% for pT1 tumors, and between 2% and 68% for pT2 tumors. By 2010, SLNB use increased to 79...

  4. Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Chaolong

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM (1,1 is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changing trend of track irregularity at a fixed measuring point; the stochastic linear AR, Kalman filtering model, and artificial neural network model are applied to predict the short-term changing trend of track irregularity at unit section. Both long-term and short-term changes prove that the model is effective and can achieve the expected accuracy.

  5. Statistical analysis of strait time index and a simple model for trend and trend reversal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Kan; Jayaprakash, C.

    2003-06-01

    We analyze the daily closing prices of the Strait Time Index (STI) as well as the individual stocks traded in Singapore's stock market from 1988 to 2001. We find that the Hurst exponent is approximately 0.6 for both the STI and individual stocks, while the normal correlation functions show the random walk exponent of 0.5. We also investigate the conditional average of the price change in an interval of length T given the price change in the previous interval. We find strong correlations for price changes larger than a threshold value proportional to T; this indicates that there is no uniform crossover to Gaussian behavior. A simple model based on short-time trend and trend reversal is constructed. We show that the model exhibits statistical properties and market swings similar to those of the real market.

  6. Time trends in incidence of cutaneous melanoma by detailed anatomical location and patterns of ultraviolet radiation exposure: a retrospective population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Daniela; Gillgren, Peter; Eloranta, Sandra; Olsson, Henrik; Gordon, Max; Hansson, Johan; Smedby, Karin E

    2015-08-01

    Given the wide public health implications of the melanoma epidemic, ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure patterns contributing to cutaneous melanoma development should be clearly identified. To describe time trends of anatomic sites of melanoma using a UVR exposure model based on clothing and sun habits, we reviewed the medical records of all patients diagnosed with primary invasive melanoma or melanoma in situ (MIS) during the years 1977-78, 1983-84, 1989-90, 1995-96, and 2000-01 (n=3058) in one healthcare region of Sweden. Age-standardized incidence rates and relative risks (RRs) of melanoma by calendar period were estimated for intermittent and chronic UVR exposure sites. From 1977-78 to 2000-01, the incidence rates of all melanomas at intermittent UVR exposure sites increased both among men (7.8-16.5/10 person-years) and among women (7.6-14.6/10 person-years), with a sex-adjusted and age-adjusted RR of 2.1 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8-2.4, Ptrendexposure sites, the male sex was positively associated with central (core) areas (chest, back, neck, shoulders, thighs; RR 1.7, 95% CI 1.5-1.9), but negatively associated with peripheral areas (lateral arms, lower legs, dorsum of feet; RR 0.3, 95% CI 0.3-0.4), compared with the female sex. Sex-specific intermittent UVR exposure patterns drove the observed increase in melanoma incidence, whereas chronic UVR exposure contributed less.

  7. Time trends in the thesis work by post-graduate students of Community Medicine: A record based descriptive study of 40 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M M Nagargoje

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Thesis work conducted by post-graduate students of Community Medicine is critically appraised by not only their examiners but also by many other public health experts and researchers. Issues related to the repetition of work and quality of thesis work is raised by various authors. Objective: To assess the time trend in the thesis work done by post-graduate students of Community Medicine. Material and methods: This is a record based descriptive observational study conducted in the department of Community Medicine of S. N. Medical College, Agra (Uttar Pradesh. Data from all the 66 theses which were submitted by the Post Graduate students of our department till date was collected and assessed systematically. Result: Most preferred areas of research were MCH/Family Planning (28.79% and Programme/Service evaluation (22.73%. 77.27% of theses were community based, 36.37% were done exclusively in a rural area, 24.24% of theses had children/adolescent as their study subjects and 28.79% were conducted exclusively among females. A knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP or Knowledge, attitude, behavior and practice (KABP study was part of many theses but exclusive KAP/KABP study was done only in 12.12% of theses. A purposive or convenience sampling was done in only 18.33% of theses, 86.67% were cross-sectional in design and median sample size was 450 participants per thesis. In comparison to the theses done upto the year 2000, theses thereafter were more often based in an urban area and less often done in an exclusive rural area (p=0.0003 and all KAP/KABP studies were done after the year 2000 (p=0.004. Conclusion: There is no repetition or excessive use of KAP/KABP studies in the theses done by post-graduate students of the department of Community Medicine, S. N. Medical College, Agra

  8. Time trends in physical activity in leisure time in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Christina Bjørk; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Helge, Jørn Wulff

    2010-01-01

    To examine time trends in leisure-time physical activity in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005.......To examine time trends in leisure-time physical activity in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005....

  9. Trend time-series modeling and forecasting with neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Min; Zhang, G Peter

    2008-05-01

    Despite its great importance, there has been no general consensus on how to model the trends in time-series data. Compared to traditional approaches, neural networks (NNs) have shown some promise in time-series forecasting. This paper investigates how to best model trend time series using NNs. Four different strategies (raw data, raw data with time index, detrending, and differencing) are used to model various trend patterns (linear, nonlinear, deterministic, stochastic, and breaking trend). We find that with NNs differencing often gives meritorious results regardless of the underlying data generating processes (DGPs). This finding is also confirmed by the real gross national product (GNP) series.

  10. Three measures of longevity: time trends and record values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Canudas-Romo, V

    2010-01-01

    This article examines the trend over time in the measures of “typical” longevity experienced by members of a population: life expectancy at birth, and the median and modal ages at death. The article also analyzes trends in record values observed for all three measures. The record life expectancy...... time from a dominance of child mortality reductions to a dominance of adult mortality reductions, which became evident by studying trends in the record modal age at death....

  11. National Practice Pattern and Time Trends in Treatment of Upper Urinary Tract Calculi in Korea: a Nationwide Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jinsung; Suh, Beomseok; Lee, Myung Shin; Woo, Seung Hyo; Shin, Dong Wook

    2016-12-01

    Despite high prevalence of upper urinary tract calculi (UUTC), there are few studies regarding patterns of care in Asian populations. We investigated treatment patterns and time trends in patients with newly diagnosed UUTC in Korea using the National Health Insurance database that includes de-identified claims from a random 2% sample of the entire population (> 1 million people). A total of 14,282 patients who received active treatments, including shock wave lithotripsy (SWL), ureteroscopic surgery (URS), percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PNL), and uretero/pyelolithotomy (UPL), for newly diagnosed UUTC between 2003 and 2013 were included. The number of primary and all treated cases of UUTC significantly (43% and 103.3%, respectively) increased over the 10-year period. While patients undergoing SWL, URS, PNL, and UPL as primary treatment increased by 43.7%, 31.9%, 87.5%, and 0%, respectively, the relative proportion undergoing each treatment remained constant over the 10 years (SWL > 90%, URS 4.5% to 7.8%, PNL 0.4% to 1.0%, and UPL 40 years (compared to age PNL, and UPL, rather than SWL, while patients living in urban or suburban/rural areas (compared to metropolitan) were significantly less likely to undergo URS and PNL. In summary, the majority of Korean patients underwent SWL as primary treatment for UUTC, and the predominant use of SWL remained steady over a 10-year period in Korea. Our results will be valuable in examining treatment patterns and time trends in Korean UUTC patients.

  12. Time trends in human fecundability in Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H; Rylander, Lars; Carstensen, Lisbeth

    2008-01-01

    increased with age, except that for women in their late 1930s, an apparent decrease was observed, particularly among the early cohorts. CONCLUSION: We found decreasing subfertility over time. We speculate that these patterns might be related to a Sweden-specific decrease over time in sexually transmitted...

  13. “Once upon a Time in the Mediterranean” Long Term Trends of Mediterranean Fisheries Resources Based on Fishers’ Traditional Ecological Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damalas, Dimitrios; Maravelias, Christos D.; Osio, Giacomo C.; Maynou, Francesc; Sbrana, Mario; Sartor, Paolo

    2015-01-01

    We investigate long-term changes in the Mediterranean marine resources driving the trawl fisheries by analysing fishers’ perceptions (Traditional Ecological Knowledge, TEK) throughout the Mediterranean Sea during the last 80 years. To this end, we conducted an extended set of interviews with experienced fishers that enabled us to classify species (or taxa) as ‘decreasing’ or ‘increasing’ both in terms of abundance, as well as average size in the catch. The aspect that most clearly emerged in all the investigated areas over time was the notable increase of fishing capacity indicators, such as engine power and fishing depth range. Atlantic mackerel, poor cod, scorpionfishes, striped seabream, and John Dory demonstrated a decreasing trend in the fishers’ perceived abundance, while Mediterranean parrotfish, common pandora, cuttlefish, blue and red shrimp, and mullets gave indications of an increasing temporal trend. Although, as a rule, trawler captains did not report any cataclysmic changes (e.g. extinctions), when they were invited to estimate total catches, a clear decreasing pattern emerged; this being a notable finding taking into account the steep escalation of fishing efficiency during the past century. The overall deteriorating status of stocks in most Mediterranean regions calls for responsible management and design of rebuilding plans. This should include historical information accounting for past exploitation patterns that could help defining a baseline of fish abundance prior to heavy industrial fisheries exploitation. PMID:25781459

  14. Time trends and mechanisms of soil acidification.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wesselink, L.G.

    1994-01-01

    The effects of acid atmospheric deposition on forest ecosystems have been studied intensively in the past two decades. Measurements of element budgets in forested ecosystems throughout the world have shown that acid deposition may deplete stores of exchangeable base cations in the soil, decrease the

  15. Part-Time Faculty: Identifying the Trends and Challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    German, Kathleen M.

    1996-01-01

    Considers the scope of the problem of the trend toward part-time faculty. Identifies the characteristics of part-time instructors. Assesses the effects of part-time appointments on the profession. Notes that women are most often found in the lower ranks of part-time faculty. (PA)

  16. Time Delay Systems Methods, Applications and New Trends

    CERN Document Server

    Vyhlídal, Tomáš; Niculescu, Silviu-Iulian; Pepe, Pierdomenico

    2012-01-01

    This volume is concerned with the control and dynamics of time delay systems; a research field with at least six-decade long history that has been very active especially in the past two decades. In parallel to the new challenges emerging from engineering, physics, mathematics, and economics, the volume covers several new directions including topology induced stability, large-scale interconnected systems, roles of networks in stability, and new trends in predictor-based control and consensus dynamics. The associated applications/problems are described by highly complex models, and require solving inverse problems as well as the development of new theories, mathematical tools, numerically-tractable algorithms for real-time control. The volume, which is targeted to present these developments in this rapidly evolving field, captures a careful selection of the most recent papers contributed by experts and collected under five parts: (i) Methodology: From Retarded to Neutral Continuous Delay Models, (ii) Systems, S...

  17. Time trend in diagnosing dementia in secondary care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Phung, Thien Kieu Thi; Waltoft, Berit Lindum; Kessing, Lars Vedel;

    2010-01-01

    To study the trend of diagnosing dementia in the secondary health care sector over time, we conducted a nationwide longitudinal study of the incidence and prevalence of registered dementia diagnoses in the Danish national hospital registers.......To study the trend of diagnosing dementia in the secondary health care sector over time, we conducted a nationwide longitudinal study of the incidence and prevalence of registered dementia diagnoses in the Danish national hospital registers....

  18. Survival after Abdominoperineal and Sphincter-Preserving Resection in Nonmetastatic Rectal Cancer: A Population-Based Time-Trend and Propensity Score-Matched SEER Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rene Warschkow

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Abdominoperineal resection (APR has been associated with impaired survival in nonmetastatic rectal cancer patients. It is unclear whether this adverse outcome is due to the surgical procedure itself or is a consequence of tumor-related characteristics. Study Design. Patients were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The impact of APR compared to coloanal anastomosis (CAA on survival was assessed by Cox regression and propensity-score matching. Results. In 36,488 patients with rectal cancer resection, the APR rate declined from 31.8% in 1998 to 19.2% in 2011, with a significant trend change in 2004 at 21.6% (P<0.001. To minimize a potential time-trend bias, survival analysis was limited to patients diagnosed after 2004. APR was associated with an increased risk of cancer-specific mortality after unadjusted analysis (HR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.28–2.03, P<0.01 and multivariable adjustment (HR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.10–1.76, P<0.01. After optimal adjustment of highly biased patient characteristics by propensity-score matching, APR was not identified as a risk factor for cancer-specific mortality (HR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.56–1.29, P=0.456. Conclusions. The current propensity score-adjusted analysis provides evidence that worse oncological outcomes in patients undergoing APR compared to CAA are caused by different patient characteristics and not by the surgical procedure itself.

  19. Survival after Abdominoperineal and Sphincter-Preserving Resection in Nonmetastatic Rectal Cancer: A Population-Based Time-Trend and Propensity Score-Matched SEER Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warschkow, Rene; Ebinger, Sabrina M.; Brunner, Walter; Schmied, Bruno M.

    2017-01-01

    Background. Abdominoperineal resection (APR) has been associated with impaired survival in nonmetastatic rectal cancer patients. It is unclear whether this adverse outcome is due to the surgical procedure itself or is a consequence of tumor-related characteristics. Study Design. Patients were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The impact of APR compared to coloanal anastomosis (CAA) on survival was assessed by Cox regression and propensity-score matching. Results. In 36,488 patients with rectal cancer resection, the APR rate declined from 31.8% in 1998 to 19.2% in 2011, with a significant trend change in 2004 at 21.6% (P < 0.001). To minimize a potential time-trend bias, survival analysis was limited to patients diagnosed after 2004. APR was associated with an increased risk of cancer-specific mortality after unadjusted analysis (HR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.28–2.03, P < 0.01) and multivariable adjustment (HR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.10–1.76, P < 0.01). After optimal adjustment of highly biased patient characteristics by propensity-score matching, APR was not identified as a risk factor for cancer-specific mortality (HR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.56–1.29, P = 0.456). Conclusions. The current propensity score-adjusted analysis provides evidence that worse oncological outcomes in patients undergoing APR compared to CAA are caused by different patient characteristics and not by the surgical procedure itself. PMID:28197206

  20. Real-time trend monitoring of gas compressor stations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Hardeveld, T. (Nova, an Alberta Corp., AB (Canada))

    1991-02-01

    The authors' company has developed a machinery health monitoring system (MHealth) for short-term and long-term historical trending and analysis of data from its 40 gas compressor stations. The author discusses the benefits of real-time trending in troubleshooting operations, in preventative maintenance scheduling and cites specific applications in the startup operations of several new gas compressor/centrifugal compressor units.

  1. Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus...... as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...... are rather modest when individual exposures are assessed. Despite that, some exposures have been reported to be associated to early (e.g., polybrominated biphenyls) or delayed (e.g., lead) puberty. Here we shortly review the available data on recent trends in timing of puberty and the possible role...

  2. Multi-Granular Trend Detection for Time-Series Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arthur Van, Goethem; Staals, Frank; Loffler, Maarten; Dykes, Jason; Speckmann, Bettina

    2017-01-01

    Time series (such as stock prices) and ensembles (such as model runs for weather forecasts) are two important types of one-dimensional time-varying data. Such data is readily available in large quantities but visual analysis of the raw data quickly becomes infeasible, even for moderately sized data sets. Trend detection is an effective way to simplify time-varying data and to summarize salient information for visual display and interactive analysis. We propose a geometric model for trend-detection in one-dimensional time-varying data, inspired by topological grouping structures for moving objects in two- or higher-dimensional space. Our model gives provable guarantees on the trends detected and uses three natural parameters: granularity, support-size, and duration. These parameters can be changed on-demand. Our system also supports a variety of selection brushes and a time-sweep to facilitate refined searches and interactive visualization of (sub-)trends. We explore different visual styles and interactions through which trends, their persistence, and evolution can be explored.

  3. Time trends in biological fertility in Western Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joffe, Michael; Holmes, Jane; Jensen, Tina Kold;

    2013-01-01

    analyses demonstrated that this rise was visible as a male cohort effect for both TTP and contraceptive failure. On the other hand, the female birth cohort effect showed a slight fall in the first half of the study period for both TTP and contraceptive failure. As a period effect, fertility remained...... generally stable, the slight trends in TTP and contraceptive failure being in opposite directions, likely indicating an artifact. The rising trend accords with most previous evidence. The increasing trend in male fertility does not contradict the previously reported semen quality deterioration, the effects......We investigated trends in biological fertility in a comprehensive analysis of 5 major European data sets with data on time to pregnancy (TTP) and proportion of contraceptive failures. In particular, we distinguished a period effect from a birth cohort effect (lifelong tendency) in both sexes...

  4. United States Forest Disturbance Trends Observed Using Landsat Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masek, Jeffrey G.; Goward, Samuel N.; Kennedy, Robert E.; Cohen, Warren B.; Moisen, Gretchen G.; Schleeweis, Karen; Huang, Chengquan

    2013-01-01

    Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing U.S. land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest disturbance across the conterminous United States for 1985-2005. The geographic sample design used a probability-based scheme to encompass major forest types and maximize geographic dispersion. For each sample location disturbance was identified in the Landsat series using the Vegetation Change Tracker (VCT) algorithm. The NAFD analysis indicates that, on average, 2.77 Mha/yr of forests were disturbed annually, representing 1.09%/yr of US forestland. These satellite-based national disturbance rates estimates tend to be lower than those derived from land management inventories, reflecting both methodological and definitional differences. In particular the VCT approach used with a biennial time step has limited sensitivity to low-intensity disturbances. Unlike prior satellite studies, our biennial forest disturbance rates vary by nearly a factor of two between high and low years. High western US disturbance rates were associated with active fire years and insect activity, while variability in the east is more strongly related to harvest rates in managed forests. We note that generating a geographic sample based on representing forest type and variability may be problematic since the spatial pattern of disturbance does not necessarily correlate with forest type. We also find that the prevalence of diffuse, non-stand clearing disturbance in US forests makes the application of a biennial geographic sample problematic. Future satellite-based studies of disturbance at regional and national scales should focus on wall-to-wall analyses with annual time step for improved accuracy.

  5. Analysis of the Time Trends of Precipitation over Mediterranean Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mourad Lazri

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Time trends of precipitation in the north of Algeria from meteorological radar are analysed. A probabilistic approach presented here proposes to study the evolution of the rainfall phenomenon in two distinct study areas, one located in sea and other located in ground. A decision criterion is established and based on radar reflectivity in order to classify the precipitation events located in both areas. At each radar observation, a state of precipitation is classified, either convective (heavy precipitation or stratiform (average precipitation both for the "sea" and for the "ground". In all, a time series of precipitation composed of three states; no raining, stratiform precipitation and convective precipitation, is obtained for each of the two areas. Thereby, we studied and characterized the behavior of precipitation in time by a Markov chain of order one with three states. Transition probabilities are calculated. The results show that rainfall is well described by a Markov chain of order one with three states. Indeed, the stationary probabilities, which are calculated by using the Markovian model, and the actual probabilities are almost identical.

  6. 多时间序列关联规则分析的论坛舆情趋势预测%Forum Sentiment Trend Prediction Based on Multi Time Series Association Rule Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    钱爱玲; 瞿彬彬; 卢炎生; 陈攀攀; 陈国栋

    2012-01-01

    为了预测论坛舆情及其动态演变趋势,基于多时间序列的关联分析,集中分析了论坛中3个量的时间序列之间的关联规则:活跃者之间的关系强度的时间序列、坚定支持者人数的时间序列以及坚定支持者成员的变化频度的时间序列.然后给出了一种新的基于多时间序列关联分析的论坛舆情预测算法(Forum sentiment trend prediction based on multi time series association rule analysis,TPMTSA),并在真实数据集和拟合数据集上进行了大量的实验.结果表明:TPMTSA算法具有有效性和较高的运行效率.研究结果可用于论坛舆情预警监控.%In order to predict the evolving trend of forum sentiment, based on the association analysis of multi time series, the association rules of three-quantity time series over forum sentiment are anlyzed, namely, the strength of relationship between actors, the number of pillars, and the changing frequency of pillars. Then a novel prediction algorithm, forum sentiment trend prediction based on multi time series association rule analysis (TPMTSA), is proposed. Extensive experiments over real and synthetic datasets are conducted. Results show the effectiveness and the efficiency of TPMTSA. The research results can be used to monitor the forum opinion.

  7. Ground-based observations of Saturn's auroral ionosphere over three days: Trends in H3+ temperature, density and emission with Saturn local time and planetary period oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donoghue, James; Melin, Henrik; Stallard, Tom S.; Provan, G.; Moore, Luke; Badman, Sarah V.; Cowley, Stan W. H.; Baines, Kevin H.; Miller, Steve; Blake, James S. D.

    2016-01-01

    On 19-21 April 2013, the ground-based 10-m W.M. Keck II telescope was used to simultaneously measure H3+ emissions from four regions of Saturn's auroral ionosphere: (1) the northern noon region of the main auroral oval; (2) the northern midnight main oval; (3) the northern polar cap and (4) the southern noon main oval. The H3+ emission from these regions was captured in the form of high resolution spectral images as the planet rotated. The results herein contain twenty-three H3+ temperatures, column densities and total emissions located in the aforementioned regions - ninety-two data points in total, spread over timescales of both hours and days. Thermospheric temperatures in the spring-time northern main oval are found to be cooler than their autumn-time southern counterparts by tens of K, consistent with the hypothesis that the total thermospheric heating rate is inversely proportional to magnetic field strength. The main oval H3+ density and emission is lower at northern midnight than it is at noon, in agreement with a nearby peak in the electron influx in the post-dawn sector and a minimum flux at midnight. Finally, when arranging the northern main oval H3+ parameters as a function of the oscillation period seen in Saturn's magnetic field - the planetary period oscillation (PPO) phase - we see a large peak in H3+ density and emission at ∼115° northern phase, with a full-width at half-maximum (FWHM) of ∼44°. This seems to indicate that the influx of electrons associated with the PPO phase at 90° is responsible at least in part for the behavior of all H3+ parameters. A combination of the H3+ production and loss timescales and the ±10° uncertainty in the location of a given PPO phase are likely, at least in part, to be responsible for the observed peaks in H3+ density and emission occurring at a later time than the peak precipitation expected at 90° PPO phase.

  8. Time trends in antipsychotic drug use in patients with dementia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Ane; Jensen-Dahm, Christina; Gasse, Christiane;

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Antipsychotics are often used to treat neuropsychiatric symptoms in dementia, but the evidence for effect is limited. Antipsychotics have been associated with increased risk of adverse events and mortality in patients with dementia, leading to safety regulations worldwide. OBJECTIVE......: To investigate time trends in use of antipsychotics and other psychotropic drugs in dementia care. METHODS: The study included longitudinal data on all Danish residents ≥65 years. The study population was defined on January 1 of each year from 2000-2012. Data included prescriptions, discharge diagnoses......, and somatic and psychiatric comorbidities. Multivariate time trend analyses of psychotropic drug use in patients with dementia within 4-year age bands were performed. RESULTS: Overall, among patients with dementia the prevalence of antipsychotic drug use decreased from 31.3% in 2000 to 20.4% in 2012...

  9. Tropical Tropospheric Ozone (TTO) Maps from Nimbus 7 and Earth-Probe TOMS by the Modified-Residual Method. 1; Validation, Evaluation and Trends based on Atlantic Regional Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Anne M.; Hudson, Robert D.

    1998-01-01

    The well-known wave-one pattern seen in tropical total ozone [Shiotani, 1992; Ziemke et al., 1996, 1998] has been used to develop a modified-residual (MR) method for retrieving time-averaged stratospheric ozone and tropospheric ozone column amount from TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) over the 14 complete calendar years of Nimbus 7 observations (1979-1992) and from TOMS on the Earth-Probe (1996-present) and ADEOS platforms (1996- 1997). Nine- to sixteen-day averaged tropical tropospheric ozone (TTO) maps, validated with ozonesondes, show a seasonality expected from dynamical and chemical influences. The maps may be viewed on a homepage: http://metosrv2.umd.edu/tropo. Stratospheric column ozone, which is also derived by the modified-residual method, compares well with sondes (to within 6-7 DU) and with stratospheric ozone column derived from other satellites (within 8-10 DU). Validation of the TTO time-series is presently limited to ozonesonde comparisons with Atlantic stations and sites on the adjacent continents (Ascension Island, Natal, Brazil; Brazzaville); for the sounding periods, TTO at all locations agrees with the sonde record to +/-7 DU. TTO time-series and the magnitude of the wave-one pattern show ENSO signals in the strongest El Nifio periods from 1979-1998. From 12degN and 12degS, zonally averaged tropospheric ozone shows no significant trend from 1980-1990. Trends are also not significant during this period in localized regions, e.g. from just west of South America across to southern Africa. This is consistent with the ozonesonde record at Natal, Brazil (the only tropical ozone data publicly available for the 1980's), which shows a not statistically significant increase. The lack of trend in tropospheric ozone agrees with a statistical analysis based on another method for deriving TTO from TOMS, the so-called Convective-Cloud-Differential approach of Ziemke et al. [1998].

  10. Impact of Introducing Stereotactic Lung Radiotherapy for Elderly Patients With Stage I Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer : A Population-Based Time-Trend Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Palma, David; Visser, Otto; Lagerwaard, Frank J.; Belderbos, Jose; Slotman, Ben J.; Senan, Suresh

    2010-01-01

    Purpose Stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for stage I non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is associated with high local control rates. The impact of introducing SBRT in patients 75 years of age or older was studied using a population-based cancer registry. Methods The Amsterdam Cancer Registry wa

  11. Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

    2008-01-01

    Whether children, especially girls, are entering and progressing through puberty earlier today than in the mid-1900s has been debated. Secular trend analysis, based on available data, is limited by data comparability among studies in different populations, in different periods of time, and using ...

  12. Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

    2008-01-01

    Whether children, especially girls, are entering and progressing through puberty earlier today than in the mid-1900s has been debated. Secular trend analysis, based on available data, is limited by data comparability among studies in different populations, in different periods of time, and using...

  13. Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoqi Li

    Full Text Available In this paper, an entropy-based method is proposed to forecast the demographical changes of countries. We formulate the estimation of future demographical profiles as a constrained optimization problem, anchored on the empirically validated assumption that the entropy of age distribution is increasing in time. The procedure of the proposed method involves three stages, namely: 1 Prediction of the age distribution of a country's population based on an "age-structured population model"; 2 Estimation the age distribution of each individual household size with an entropy-based formulation based on an "individual household size model"; and 3 Estimation the number of each household size based on a "total household size model". The last stage is achieved by projecting the age distribution of the country's population (obtained in stage 1 onto the age distributions of individual household sizes (obtained in stage 2. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by feeding real world data, and it is general and versatile enough to be extended to other time dependent demographic variables.

  14. New research trends on high-precision time transfer technology

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DONG; Ruifang; QUAN; Run’ai; HOU; Feiyan; WANG; Shaofeng; XIANG; Xiao; ZHOU; Conghua; WANG; Mengmeng; LIU; Tao; ZHANG; Shou’gang

    2015-01-01

    High-precision time transfer plays an important role in the areas of fundamental research and applications. Accompanying w ith the remarkable improvements in the ability of generating and measuring high-accuracy time-frequency signal,seeking for new time-transfer techniques betw een distant clocks w ith much further improved accuracy attracts attentions w orld-w idely. The time-transfer technique based on optical pulses has the highest precision presently,and the further improvement in the accuracy is heavily dependent on the time-domain properties of the pulse as w ell as the sensitivity of the applied measurement on the exchanged pulse. The application of optical frequency comb in time transfer for a precision up to femtosecond level are currently the focus of much interest,and has recently achieved many breakthroughs. Further investigations show that,utilizing quantum techniques,i.e. quantum measurement technique and quantum optical pulse source,can lead to a new limit on the measured timing information. Furthermore,it can be immune from atmospheric parameters,such as pressure,temperature,humidity and so on.Such quantum improvements on time-transfer have a bright prospect in the future applications requiring extremely high-accuracy timing and ranging. The potential achievements w ill form a technical basis for the future realization of sub-femtosecond time transfer system.

  15. Nutrient trends through time in Sweden's Baltic Drainage Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, I.; Destouni, G.; Prieto, C.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in climate and land-use have and will continue to modify regional hydrology, in turn impacting environmental health, agricultural productivity and water resource quality and availability. The Baltic region is an area of interest as the coast spans nine countries- serving over 100 million people. The Baltic Sea contains one of the largest human caused hypoxic dead zones due to eutrophication driven by anthropogenic excess loading of nutrients. Policies to reduce these loads include also international directives and agreements, such as the EU Water Framework Directive, adopted in 2000 to protect and improve water quality throughout the European Union, and the Baltic Sea Action Plan under the Helsinki Commission aimed specifically at reducing the nutrient loading to and mitigating the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. In light of these policies and amidst the number of studies on the Baltic Sea we ask, using the accessible nutrient and discharge data what does nutrient loading look like today? Are the most excessive loads going down? Observed nutrient and flow time series across Sweden allow for answering these questions, by spatial and temporal trend analysis of loads from various parts of Sweden to the Baltic Sea. Analyzing these observed time series in conjunction with the ecological health status classifications of the EU Water Framework Directive, allows in particular for answering the question if the loads into the water bodies with the poorest water quality, and from those to the Baltic Sea, are improving, being maintained or deteriorating. Such insight is required to contribute to relevant and efficient water and nutrient load management. Furthermore, empirically calculating nutrient loads, rather than only modeling, reveals that the water body health classification may not reflect what water bodies actually contribute the heaviest loads to the Baltic Sea. This work also underscores the importance of comprehensive analysis of all available data from

  16. Trends

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Shanghai Mode Lingerie continually strives to underline its status as a veritable reference on the fashion scene: an opportunity to explore trends, interpret key directions and gain an in-depth overview of lines to follow.

  17. Comparing trends in hydrometeorological average and extreme data sets around the world at different time scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Rosmann

    2016-03-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Results indicate that trends can be found for all variables and on all latitudes, with an increase of global temperature in the analysed time period. Fewer trends were observed in extreme value data. Trends in discharge data were predominantly negative, and precipitation trends were not very common. In some cases, an opposing pattern was observed in the northern and southern hemisphere. The highest number of trends was found at the annual and least on the daily resolution, nevertheless, trend patterns for discharges remained similar at different time scales. Some of the factors that might influence these results are discussed.

  18. Trend change detection in NDVI time series: Effects of inter-annual variability and methodology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forkel, M.; Carvalhais, N.; Verbesselt, J.; Mahecha, M.D.; Neigh, C.; Reichstein, M.

    2013-01-01

    Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite datase

  19. Evaluating the power to detect temporal trends in fishery-independent time surveys: A case study based on gill nets set in the Ohio waters of Lake Erie for walleyes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Tyler; Vandergoot, Christopher S.; Tyson, Jeff

    2011-01-01

    Fishery-independent (FI) surveys provide critical information used for the sustainable management and conservation of fish populations. Because fisheries management often requires the effects of management actions to be evaluated and detected within a relatively short time frame, it is important that research be directed toward FI survey evaluation, especially with respect to the ability to detect temporal trends. Using annual FI gill-net survey data for Lake Erie walleyes Sander vitreus collected from 1978 to 2006 as a case study, our goals were to (1) highlight the usefulness of hierarchical models for estimating spatial and temporal sources of variation in catch per effort (CPE); (2) demonstrate how the resulting variance estimates can be used to examine the statistical power to detect temporal trends in CPE in relation to sample size, duration of sampling, and decisions regarding what data are most appropriate for analysis; and (3) discuss recommendations for evaluating FI surveys and analyzing the resulting data to support fisheries management. This case study illustrated that the statistical power to detect temporal trends was low over relatively short sampling periods (e.g., 5–10 years) unless the annual decline in CPE reached 10–20%. For example, if 50 sites were sampled each year, a 10% annual decline in CPE would not be detected with more than 0.80 power until 15 years of sampling, and a 5% annual decline would not be detected with more than 0.8 power for approximately 22 years. Because the evaluation of FI surveys is essential for ensuring that trends in fish populations can be detected over management-relevant time periods, we suggest using a meta-analysis–type approach across systems to quantify sources of spatial and temporal variation. This approach can be used to evaluate and identify sampling designs that increase the ability of managers to make inferences about trends in fish stocks.

  20. Visualizing trends and clusters in ranked time-series data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gousie, Michael B.; Grady, John; Branagan, Melissa

    2013-12-01

    There are many systems that provide visualizations for time-oriented data. Of those, few provide the means of finding patterns in time-series data in which rankings are also important. Fewer still have the fine granularity necessary to visually follow individual data points through time. We propose the Ranking Timeline, a novel visualization method for modestly-sized multivariate data sets that include the top ten rankings over time. The system includes two main visualization components: a ranking over time and a cluster analysis. The ranking visualization, loosely based on line plots, allows the user to track individual data points so as to facilitate comparisons within a given time frame. Glyphs represent additional attributes within the framework of the overall system. The user has control over many aspects of the visualization, including viewing a subset of the data and/or focusing on a desired time frame. The cluster analysis tool shows the relative importance of individual items in conjunction with a visualization showing the connection(s) to other, similar items, while maintaining the aforementioned glyphs and user interaction. The user controls the clustering according to a similarity threshold. The system has been implemented as a Web application, and has been tested with data showing the top ten actors/actresses from 1929-2010. The experiments have revealed patterns in the data heretofore not explored.

  1. HESS Opinions "More efforts and scientific rigour are needed to attribute trends in flood time series"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hundecha

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The question whether the magnitude and frequency of floods have changed due to climate change or other drivers of change is of high interest. The number of flood trend studies is rapidly rising. When changes are detected, many studies link the identified change to the underlying causes, i.e. they attribute the changes in flood behaviour to certain drivers of change. We propose a hypothesis testing framework for trend attribution which consists of essential ingredients for a sound attribution: proof of consistency, proof of inconsistency and provision of confidence statement. Further, we evaluate the current state-of-the-art of flood trend attribution. To this end, we assess how selected recent studies approach the attribution problem, and to which extent their attribution statements seem defendable. In our opinion, the current state of flood trend attribution is poor. Attribution statements are mostly based on qualitative reasoning or even speculation. Typically, the focus of flood trend studies is the detection of change, i.e. the statistical analysis of time series, and attribution is regarded as an appendix: (1 flood time series are analysed by means of trend tests, (2 if a significant change is detected, a hypothesis on the cause of change is given, and (3 explanations or published studies are sought which support the hypothesis. We believe that we need a change in perspective and more scientific rigour: detection should be seen as an integral part of the more challenging attribution problem, and detection and attribution should be placed in a sound hypothesis testing framework.

  2. HESS Opinions "More efforts and scientific rigour are needed to attribute trends in flood time series"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hundecha

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The question whether the magnitude and frequency of floods have changed due to climate change or other drivers of change is of high interest. The number of flood trend studies is rapidly rising. When changes are detected, many studies link the identified change to the underlying causes, i.e. they attribute the changes in flood behaviour to certain drivers of change. We propose a hypothesis testing framework for trend attribution which consists of essential ingredients for a sound attribution: evidence of consistency, evidence of inconsistency, and provision of confidence statement. Further, we evaluate the current state-of-the-art of flood trend attribution. We assess how selected recent studies approach the attribution problem, and to which extent their attribution statements seem defendable. In our opinion, the current state of flood trend attribution is poor. Attribution statements are mostly based on qualitative reasoning or even speculation. Typically, the focus of flood trend studies is the detection of change, i.e. the statistical analysis of time series, and attribution is regarded as an appendix: (1 flood time series are analysed by means of trend tests, (2 if a significant change is detected, a hypothesis on the cause of change is given, and (3 explanations or published studies are sought which support the hypothesis. We believe that we need a change in perspective and more scientific rigour: detection should be seen as an integral part of the more challenging attribution problem, and detection and attribution should be placed in a sound hypothesis testing framework.

  3. Stochastic modeling of Lake Van water level time series with jumps and multiple trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Aksoy

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In the 1990s, water level in the closed-basin Lake Van located in the Eastern Anatolia, Turkey, has risen up about 2 m. Analysis of the hydrometeorological data shows that change in the water level is related to the water budget of the lake. In this study, stochastic models are proposed for simulating monthly water level data. Two models considering mono- and multiple-trend time series are developed. The models are derived after removal of trend and periodicity in the dataset. Trend observed in the lake water level time series is fitted by mono- and multiple-trend lines. In the so-called mono-trend model, the time series is treated as a whole under the hypothesis that the lake water level has an increasing trend. In the second model (so-called multiple-trend, the time series is divided into a number of segments to each a linear trend can be fitted separately. Application on the lake water level data shows that four segments, each fitted with a trend line, are meaningful. Both the mono- and multiple-trend models are used for simulation of synthetic lake water level time series under the hypothesis that the observed mono- and multiple-trend structure of the lake water level persist during the simulation period. The multiple-trend model is found better for planning the future infrastructural projects in surrounding areas of the lake as it generates higher maxima for the simulated lake water level.

  4. Space-time Trends in U.S. Meteorological Droughts

    CERN Document Server

    Ganguli, Poulomi

    2015-01-01

    Understanding droughts in a climate context remains a major challenge. Over the United States, different choices of observations and metrics have often produced diametrically opposite insights. This paper focuses on understanding and characterizing meteorological droughts from station measurements of precipitation. The Standardized Precipitation Index is computed and analyzed to obtain drought severity, duration and frequency. Average drought severity trends are found to be uncertain and data-dependent. Furthermore, the mean and spatial variance do not show any discernible non-stationary behavior. However, the spatial coverage of extreme meteorological droughts in the United States exhibits an increasing trend over nearly all of the last century. Furthermore, the coverage over the last half decade exceeds that of the dust bowl era. Previous literature suggests that climate extremes do not necessarily follow the trends or uncertainties exhibited by the averages. While this possibility has been suggested for dr...

  5. Non-target time trend screening: a data reduction strategy for detecting emerging contaminants in biological samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plassmann, Merle M; Tengstrand, Erik; Åberg, K Magnus; Benskin, Jonathan P

    2016-06-01

    Non-targeted mass spectrometry-based approaches for detecting novel xenobiotics in biological samples are hampered by the occurrence of naturally fluctuating endogenous substances, which are difficult to distinguish from environmental contaminants. Here, we investigate a data reduction strategy for datasets derived from a biological time series. The objective is to flag reoccurring peaks in the time series based on increasing peak intensities, thereby reducing peak lists to only those which may be associated with emerging bioaccumulative contaminants. As a result, compounds with increasing concentrations are flagged while compounds displaying random, decreasing, or steady-state time trends are removed. As an initial proof of concept, we created artificial time trends by fortifying human whole blood samples with isotopically labelled standards. Different scenarios were investigated: eight model compounds had a continuously increasing trend in the last two to nine time points, and four model compounds had a trend that reached steady state after an initial increase. Each time series was investigated at three fortification levels and one unfortified series. Following extraction, analysis by ultra performance liquid chromatography high-resolution mass spectrometry, and data processing, a total of 21,700 aligned peaks were obtained. Peaks displaying an increasing trend were filtered from randomly fluctuating peaks using time trend ratios and Spearman's rank correlation coefficients. The first approach was successful in flagging model compounds spiked at only two to three time points, while the latter approach resulted in all model compounds ranking in the top 11 % of the peak lists. Compared to initial peak lists, a combination of both approaches reduced the size of datasets by 80-85 %. Overall, non-target time trend screening represents a promising data reduction strategy for identifying emerging bioaccumulative contaminants in biological samples. Graphical abstract

  6. Time trends and periodic cycles in REM sleep eye movements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krynicki, V

    1975-11-01

    Eye movements during REM sleep episodes were tabulated in 16 young adults. REM episodes were then broken down into four ranges according to length in min: (1) 11.0-21.3; (2) 21.7-29.7; (3) 30.0-42.3; (4) 42.7 or longer. These data were then analyzed for linear and quadratic trends. Eight episodes had a significant linear trend, 10 had a significant quadratic trend, 7 had both linear and quadratic trends, while 12 had no trend. The residuals from the best-fitting polynomial curve were then subject to a spectral analysis. In addition, 2 long periods of pre-sleep wakefulness (approximately 2 h each) were also analyzed. In general, the spectral analysis revealed the dominant presence of a slow cycle (period of 10 min to about 30 min) the exact period of which varied according to the length of the REM episode. A binomial probability test indicated that the presence of slow cycles was significant in REM episodes except for those in the 21-30 min range. For the episodes of wakefulness, a dominant slow cycle was found in both cases. The results give the impression of similarity in the periodic organization of eye movements during REM sleep and waking. The data also indicated that an ultradian (70-150 min) cycle was present in eye movements during sleep and waking. Further, the finding of a decrease in eye movements before sleep onset, coupled with previous reports of an increase in eye movement after sleep onset, indicate the presence of a circadian cycle.

  7. Stochastic modeling of Lake Van water level time series with jumps and multiple trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Aksoy

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In 1990s, water level in the closed-basin Lake Van located in the Eastern Anatolia, Turkey has risen up about 2 m. Analysis of the hydrometeorological shows that change in the water level is related to the water budget of the lake. In this study, a stochastic model is generated using the measured monthly water level data of the lake. The model is derived after removal of trend and periodicity in the data set. Trend observed in the lake water level time series is fitted by mono- and multiple-trend lines. For the multiple-trend, the time series is first divided into homogeneous segments by means of SEGMENTER, segmentation software. Four segments are found meaningful practically each fitted with a trend line. Two models considering mono- and multiple-trend time series are developed. The multiple-trend model is found better for planning future development in surrounding areas of the lake.

  8. Current trends on knowledge-based systems

    CERN Document Server

    Valencia-García, Rafael

    2017-01-01

    This book presents innovative and high-quality research on the implementation of conceptual frameworks, strategies, techniques, methodologies, informatics platforms and models for developing advanced knowledge-based systems and their application in different fields, including Agriculture, Education, Automotive, Electrical Industry, Business Services, Food Manufacturing, Energy Services, Medicine and others. Knowledge-based technologies employ artificial intelligence methods to heuristically address problems that cannot be solved by means of formal techniques. These technologies draw on standard and novel approaches from various disciplines within Computer Science, including Knowledge Engineering, Natural Language Processing, Decision Support Systems, Artificial Intelligence, Databases, Software Engineering, etc. As a combination of different fields of Artificial Intelligence, the area of Knowledge-Based Systems applies knowledge representation, case-based reasoning, neural networks, Semantic Web and TICs used...

  9. First Ground-Based Infrared Solar Absorption Measurements of Free Tropospheric Methanol (CH3OH): Multidecade Infrared Time Series from Kitt Peak (31.9 deg N 111.6 deg W): Trend, Seasonal Cycle, and Comparison with Previous Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinsland, Curtis P.; Mahieu, Emmanuel; Chiou, Linda; Herbin, Herve

    2009-01-01

    Atmospheric CH3OH (methanol) free tropospheric (2.09-14-km altitude) time series spanning 22 years has been analyzed on the basis of high-spectral resolution infrared solar absorption spectra of the strong vs band recorded from the U.S. National Solar Observatory on Kitt Peak (latitude 31.9degN, 111.6degW, 2.09-km altitude) with a 1-m Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS). The measurements span October 1981 to December 2003 and are the first long time series of CH3OH measurements obtained from the ground. The results were analyzed with SFIT2 version 3.93 and show a factor of three variations with season, a maximum at the beginning of July, a winter minimum, and no statistically significant long-term trend over the measurement time span.

  10. Time-trends in pregnancy: findings from Portugal

    OpenAIRE

    Lopes, Sofia; Teixeira, Cristina; Barros, Henrique

    2014-01-01

    To examine trends in pregnancy and abortion rates observed in Portugal in the last decade. We abstracted all delivery and abortionrelated-admissions to Portuguese public hospitals (2000–2010) using a nationwide inpatient database(corresponding to nearly 96% of all deliveries). We computed age-specific pregnancy and termination of pregnancy rates (all and induced abortion)considering the age groups less than 15, 15–19, 20–34, 35–39 and more than 39 years, using national population estima...

  11. Application of the Trend Filtering Algorithm for Photometric Time Series Data

    CERN Document Server

    Gopalan, Giri; van Eyken, Julian; Ciardi, David; von Braun, Kaspar; Kane, Stephen R

    2016-01-01

    Detecting transient light curves (e.g., transiting planets) requires high precision data, and thus it is important to effectively filter systematic trends affecting ground based wide field surveys. We apply an implementation of the Trend Filtering Algorithm (TFA) (Kovacs et al. 2005) to the 2MASS calibration catalog and select Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) photometric time series data. TFA is successful at reducing the overall dispersion of light curves, however it may over filter intrinsic variables and increase "instantaneous" dispersion when a template set is not judiciously chosen. In an attempt to rectify these issues we modify the original literature TFA by including measurement uncertainties in its computation, including ancillary data correlated with noise, and algorithmically selecting a template set using clustering algorithms as suggested by various authors. This approach may be particularly useful for appropriately accounting for variable photometric precision surveys and/or combined data-sets. ...

  12. Current trends in ground based solar magnetometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosain, Sanjay

    2016-07-01

    Continuous observations of the sun, over more than a century, have led to several important discoveries in solar astronomy. These include the discovery of the solar magnetism and its cyclic modulation, active region formation and decay and their role in energetic phenomena such as fares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), fine structure and dynamics of the sunspots and small-scale organization of the magnetic flux in the form of flux tubes and so forth. In this article we give a brief overview of advancements in solar observational techniques in recent decades and the results obtained from the such observations. These include techniques to achieve high angular resolution, high spectral and polarimetric sensitivity and innovative new detectors. A wide range of spatial, temporal and spectral domains exploited by solar astronomers to understand the solar phenomena are discussed. Many new upcoming telescopes and instruments that are designed to address different aspects of solar physics problems are briefly described. Finally, we discuss the advantages of observing from the ground and how they can complement space-based observations.

  13. Osteoporosis-Related Mortality: Time-Trends and Predictive Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelly Ziadé

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Osteoporosis is one of the leading causes of handicap worldwide and a major contributor to the global burden of diseases. In particular, osteoporosis is associated with excess mortality. We reviewed the impact of osteoporosis on mortality in a population by defining three categories: mortality following hip fractures, mortality following other sites of fractures, and mortality associated with low bone mineral density (BMD. Hip fractures, as well as other fractures at major sites are all associated with excess mortality, except at the forearm site. This excess mortality is higher during the first 3-6 months after the fracture and then declines over time, but remains higher than the mortality of the normal population up to 22 years after the fracture. Low BMD is also associated with high mortality, with hazard ratios of around 1.3 for every decrease in 1 standard deviation of bone density at 5 years, independently of fractures, reflecting a more fragile population. Finally predictors of mortality were identified and categorised in demographic known factors (age and male gender and in factors reflecting a poor general health status such as the number of comorbidities, low mental status, or level of social dependence. Our results indicate that the management of a patient with osteoporosis should include a multivariate approach that could be based on predictive models in the future.

  14. A hybrid design-based and model-based sampling approach to estimate the temporal trend of spatial means

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brus, D.J.; Gruijter, de J.J.

    2012-01-01

    This paper launches a hybrid sampling approach, entailing a design-based approach in space followed by a model-based approach in time, for estimating temporal trends of spatial means or totals. The underlying space–time process that generated the soil data is only partly described, viz. by a linear

  15. Extracting a Smooth Trend from a Time Series: A Modification of Singular Spectrum Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solow, Andrew R.; Patwardhan, Anand

    1996-09-01

    Singular spectrum analysis is commonly used in climatology to extract a trend from a noisy time series. Implicit in this method is the association of trends with high variance. In many cases, it may be more natural to associate trends with smoothness. This paper describes how singular spectrum analysis can be modified to incorporate this idea. The modified approach is illustrated using the annual central England temperature series.

  16. Effects of linear trends on estimation of noise in GNSS position time-series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dmitrieva, K.; Segall, P.; Bradley, A. M.

    2017-01-01

    A thorough understanding of time-dependent noise in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series is necessary for computing uncertainties in any signals found in the data. However, estimation of time-correlated noise is a challenging task and is complicated by the difficulty in separating noise from signal, the features of greatest interest in the time-series. In this paper, we investigate how linear trends affect the estimation of noise in daily GNSS position time-series. We use synthetic time-series to study the relationship between linear trends and estimates of time-correlated noise for the six most commonly cited noise models. We find that the effects of added linear trends, or conversely de-trending, vary depending on the noise model. The commonly adopted model of random walk (RW), flicker noise (FN) and white noise (WN) is the most severely affected by de-trending, with estimates of low-amplitude RW most severely biased. FN plus WN is least affected by adding or removing trends. Non-integer power-law noise estimates are also less affected by de-trending, but are very sensitive to the addition of trend when the spectral index is less than one. We derive an analytical relationship between linear trends and the estimated RW variance for the special case of pure RW noise. Overall, we find that to ascertain the correct noise model for GNSS position time-series and to estimate the correct noise parameters, it is important to have independent constraints on the actual trends in the data.

  17. FBG-Based Monitoring of Geohazards: Current Status and Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hong-Hu; Shi, Bin; Zhang, Cheng-Cheng

    2017-02-24

    In recent years, natural and anthropogenic geohazards have occured frequently all over the world, and field monitoring is becoming an increasingly important task to mitigate these risks. However, conventional geotechnical instrumentations for monitoring geohazards have a number of weaknesses, such as low accuracy, poor durability, and high sensitivity to environmental interferences. In this aspect, fiber Bragg grating (FBG), as a popular fiber optic sensing technology, has gained an explosive amount of attention. Based on this technology, quasi-distributed sensing systems have been established to perform real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides, debris flows, land subsidence, earth fissures and so on. In this paper, the recent research and development activities of applying FBG systems to monitor different types of geohazards, especially those triggered by human activities, are critically reviewed. The working principles of newly developed FBG sensors are briefly introduced, and their features are summarized. This is followed by a discussion of recent case studies and lessons learned, and some critical problems associated with field implementation of FBG-based monitoring systems. Finally the challenges and future trends in this research area are presented.

  18. FBG-Based Monitoring of Geohazards: Current Status and Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Hu Zhu

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, natural and anthropogenic geohazards have occured frequently all over the world, and field monitoring is becoming an increasingly important task to mitigate these risks. However, conventional geotechnical instrumentations for monitoring geohazards have a number of weaknesses, such as low accuracy, poor durability, and high sensitivity to environmental interferences. In this aspect, fiber Bragg grating (FBG, as a popular fiber optic sensing technology, has gained an explosive amount of attention. Based on this technology, quasi-distributed sensing systems have been established to perform real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides, debris flows, land subsidence, earth fissures and so on. In this paper, the recent research and development activities of applying FBG systems to monitor different types of geohazards, especially those triggered by human activities, are critically reviewed. The working principles of newly developed FBG sensors are briefly introduced, and their features are summarized. This is followed by a discussion of recent case studies and lessons learned, and some critical problems associated with field implementation of FBG-based monitoring systems. Finally the challenges and future trends in this research area are presented.

  19. Time trends of anthropogenic radionuclides at Utsira[Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christensen, G.C.; Straelberg, E. [Institute for Energy Technology, Kjeller (Norway); Holm, E. [Lund Univ., Dept. of Radiation Physics, Lund (Sweden)

    2002-04-01

    Institute for Energy Technology has annually collected the brown alga Fucus vesiculosus at several sampling locations along the Norwegian coast since 1980, mainly in August and September. At the south-western location Utsira, monthly samples have been collected regularly since January 1986. Time series for {sup 99}Tc and {sup 137}Cs in Fucus samples from Utsira are presented in this study. (au)

  20. Space-Time-Isotopic Trends of Snake River Plain Basalts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jean, M. M.; Hanan, B. B.; Shervais, J. W.

    2010-12-01

    plain high-K lavas ranges to > 99%, higher than low-K thoileiites (97-99%) from the same region. This trend is controlled by ancient cratonic lithosphere like that of the Wyoming province. This province superimposes its inherent isotopic composition on sublithospheric plume and/or asthenospheric melts. Seismic tomography and upper mantle velocity variations coupled with these results demonstrate that the sub-continental lithospheric mantle was thermally eroded and removed after this area passed over the Yellowstone plume (e.g. Humphreys and co-workers). Removal of the SCLM apparently allowed upwelling and decompression melting of residual plume material occupying the eroded plume channel. This resulted in a mantle source where the plume:SCLM ratio was greater for high-K basalts, than the low-K tholeiite source. The change in mantle source regions could have happened in as little as 200,000 years (e.g., Vetter and Shervais, 2009).

  1. Current and Future Trends in Game-Based Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Vaz de Carvalho

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The first number of the second volume of the EAI Transactions on Serious Games focuses on the results presented on the European Conference on Game-Based Learning. This event, already on the 8th edition, has set standards in terms of presentation of research and practice and in the pointing out of new and future trends in the development of Game-Based Learning. As such, we are quite thrilled to be able to report them here.

  2. A TREND DISPLACEMENT ANALYSIS FOR SPACE AND TIME ON XINTAN LANDSLIDE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    贺可强

    1998-01-01

    This paper, having made systematic trend analysis on the front and rear segments ofXintan landslide for space and time respectively by using mathematical statistical principles,discovered that there is obvious trend displacement of the monitoring points in the rear marginarea of the slope and the rates of trend displacement gradually increase with time whereas thereis no trend displacement of the monitoring points in the front margin area. This result suggests thatthe rear margin area of segment is an area of overall sliding and is transforming towardsde.stabilization, whereas the front margin area is an area of relative stability. This analyticalresult well coincides with the conclusion of evaluation on dynamic stability. The analytical resultmentioned above shows that the medium to short term forecast and prediction of slope stabilitycan be made by using trend displacement analysis technique in order to achieve the goal of timelyevaluation and prevention.

  3. Fuzzy forecasting based on fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shyi-Ming; Wang, Nai-Yi

    2010-10-01

    In this paper, we present a new method to predict the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) based on fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups (FTLRGs). The proposed method divides fuzzy logical relationships into FTLRGs based on the trend of adjacent fuzzy sets appearing in the antecedents of fuzzy logical relationships. First, we apply an automatic clustering algorithm to cluster the historical data into intervals of different lengths. Then, we define fuzzy sets based on these intervals of different lengths. Then, the historical data are fuzzified into fuzzy sets to derive fuzzy logical relationships. Then, we divide the fuzzy logical relationships into FTLRGs for forecasting the TAIEX. Moreover, we also apply the proposed method to forecast the enrollments and the inventory demand, respectively. The experimental results show that the proposed method gets higher average forecasting accuracy rates than the existing methods.

  4. Application of the Trend Filtering Algorithm for Photometric Time Series Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalan, Giri; Plavchan, Peter; van Eyken, Julian; Ciardi, David; von Braun, Kaspar; Kane, Stephen R.

    2016-08-01

    Detecting transient light curves (e.g., transiting planets) requires high-precision data, and thus it is important to effectively filter systematic trends affecting ground-based wide-field surveys. We apply an implementation of the Trend Filtering Algorithm (TFA) to the 2MASS calibration catalog and select Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) photometric time series data. TFA is successful at reducing the overall dispersion of light curves, however, it may over-filter intrinsic variables and increase “instantaneous” dispersion when a template set is not judiciously chosen. In an attempt to rectify these issues we modify the original TFA from the literature by including measurement uncertainties in its computation, including ancillary data correlated with noise, and algorithmically selecting a template set using clustering algorithms as suggested by various authors. This approach may be particularly useful for appropriately accounting for variable photometric precision surveys and/or combined data sets. In summary, our contributions are to provide a MATLAB software implementation of TFA and a number of modifications tested on synthetics and real data, summarize the performance of TFA and various modifications on real ground-based data sets (2MASS and PTF), and assess the efficacy of TFA and modifications using synthetic light curve tests consisting of transiting and sinusoidal variables. While the transiting variables test indicates that these modifications confer no advantage to transit detection, the sinusoidal variables test indicates potential improvements in detection accuracy.

  5. Global time trends in PAH emissions from motor vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Huizhong; Tao, Shu; Wang, Rong; Wang, Bin; Shen, Guofeng; Li, Wei; Su, Shenshen; Huang, Ye; Wang, Xilong; Liu, Wenxin; Li, Bengang; Sun, Kang

    2011-04-01

    Emission from motor vehicles is the most important source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in urban areas. Emission factors of individual PAHs for motor vehicles reported in the literature varied 4 to 5 orders of magnitude, leading to high uncertainty in emission inventory. In this study, key factors affecting emission factors of PAHs (EF PAH) for motor vehicles were evaluated quantitatively based on thousands of EF PAH measured in 16 countries for over 50 years. The result was used to develop a global emission inventory of PAHs from motor vehicles. It was found that country and vehicle model year are the most important factors affecting EF PAH, which can be quantified using a monovariate regression model with per capita gross domestic production (purchasing power parity) as a sole independent variable. On average, 29% of variation in log-transformed EF PAH could be explained by the model, which was equivalent to 90% reduction in overall uncertainty on arithmetic scale. The model was used to predict EF PAH and subsequently PAH emissions from motor vehicles for various countries in the world during a period from 1971 to 2030. It was estimated that the global emission reached its peak value of approximate 101 Gg in 1978 and decreased afterwards due to emission control in developed countries. The annual emission picked up again since 1990 owing to accelerated energy consumption in China and other developing countries. With more and more rigid control measures taken in the developing world, global emission of PAHs is currently passing its second peak. It was predicted that the emission would decrease from 77 Gg in 2010 to 42 Gg in 2030.

  6. Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

    2016-07-01

    Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective.

  7. Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

    2016-01-01

    Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective.

  8. Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

    2016-07-15

    Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective.

  9. A Trend-Switching Financial Time Series Model with Level-Duration Dependence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingsheng Wang

    2012-01-01

    overcome the difficult problem that motivates our researches in this paper. An asymmetric and nonlinear model with the change of local trend depending on local high-low turning point process is first proposed in this paper. As the point process can be decomposed into the two different processes, a high-low level process and an up-down duration process, we then establish the so-called trend-switching model which depends on both level and duration (Trend-LD. The proposed model can predict efficiently the direction and magnitude of the local trend of a time series by incorporating the local high-low turning point information. The numerical results on six indices in world stock markets show that the proposed Trend-LD model is suitable for fitting the market data and able to outperform the traditional random walk model.

  10. Current and future trends in metagenomics : Development of knowledge bases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, Hiroshi; Yamada, Takuji; Kurokawa, Ken

    Microbes are essential for every part of life on Earth. Numerous microbes inhabit the biosphere, many of which are uncharacterized or uncultivable. They form a complex microbial community that deeply affects against surrounding environments. Metagenome analysis provides a radically new way of examining such complex microbial community without isolation or cultivation of individual bacterial community members. In this article, we present a brief discussion about a metagenomics and the development of knowledge bases, and also discuss about the future trends in metagenomics.

  11. Geographical variations in sex ratio trends over time in multiple sclerosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Trojano

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A female/male (F/M ratio increase over time in multiple sclerosis (MS patients was demonstrated in many countries around the world. So far, a direct comparison of sex ratio time-trends among MS populations from different geographical areas was not carried out. OBJECTIVE: In this paper we assessed and compared sex ratio trends, over a 60-year span, in MS populations belonging to different latitudinal areas. METHODS: Data of a cohort of 15,996 (F = 11,290; M = 4,706 definite MS with birth years ranging from 1930 to 1989 were extracted from the international MSBase registry and the New Zealand MS database. Gender ratios were calculated by six decades based on year of birth and were adjusted for the F/M born-alive ratio derived from the respective national registries of births. RESULTS: Adjusted sex ratios showed a significant increase from the first to the last decade in the whole MS sample (from 2.35 to 2.73; p = 0.03 and in the subgroups belonging to the areas between 83° N and 45° N (from 1.93 to 4.55; p<0.0001 and between 45° N to 35° N (from 1.46 to 2.30; p<0.05 latitude, while a sex ratio stability over time was found in the subgroup from areas between 12° S and 55° S latitude. The sex ratio increase mainly affected relapsing-remitting (RR MS. CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm a general sex ratio increase over time in RRMS and also demonstrate a latitudinal gradient of this increase. These findings add useful information for planning case-control studies aimed to explore sex-related factors responsible for MS development.

  12. Time trends in heavy drinking among middle-aged and older adults in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørk, Christina; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Vinther-Larsen, Mathilde;

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Studies have indicated an increasing proportion of heavy drinking among middle-aged and older Danes. Trends in consumption are often extremely sensitive to influence from various components of the time trends but only few have explored the age, period and cohort-related influences...... on late life alcohol consumption. By using age, period, and cohort modeling this study explores the time trends in heavy drinking. METHODS: Data derive from five National Health and Morbidity Surveys conducted by the Danish National Institute of Public Health in 1987, 1994, 2000, 2003, and 2005. A total...... that the proportion of heavy drinking women increases in younger birth cohorts. This trend is not observed for men as their drinking pattern mainly increase slightly by calendar year. CONCLUSIONS: Our Danish observations for older aged individuals correspond to the social and cultural changes in the 1960s and 1970s...

  13. FURTHER CONSIDERATIONS ON SPREADSHEET-BASED AUTOMATIC TREND LINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DANIEL HOMOCIANU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Most of the nowadays business applications working with data sets allow exports to the spreadsheet format. This fact is related to the experience of common business users with such products and to the possibility to couple what they have with something containing many models, functions and possibilities to process and represent data, by that getting something in dynamics and much more than a simple static less useful report. The purpose of Business Intelligence is to identify clusters, profiles, association rules, decision trees and many other patterns or even behaviours, but also to generate alerts for exceptions, determine trends and make predictions about the future based on historical data. In this context, the paper shows some practical results obtained after testing both the automatic creation of scatter charts and trend lines corresponding to the user’s preferences and the automatic suggesting of the most appropriate trend for the tested data mostly based on the statistical measure of how close they are to the regression function.

  14. Mobile eHealth interventions for obesity: a timely opportunity to leverage convergence trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tufano, James T; Karras, Bryant T

    2005-12-20

    Obesity is often cited as the most prevalent chronic health condition and highest priority public health problem in the United States. There is a limited but growing body of evidence suggesting that mobile eHealth behavioral interventions, if properly designed, may be effective in promoting and sustaining successful weight loss and weight maintenance behavior changes. This paper reviews the current literature on the successes and failures of public health, provider-administered, and self-managed behavioral health interventions for weight loss. The prevailing theories of health behavior change are discussed from the perspective of how this knowledge can serve as an evidence base to inform the design of mobile eHealth weight loss interventions. Tailored informational interventions, which, in recent years, have proven to be the most effective form of conventional health behavior intervention for weight loss, are discussed. Lessons learned from the success of conventional tailored informational interventions and the early successes of desktop computer-assisted self-help weight management interventions are presented, as are design principles suggested by Social Cognitive Theory and the Social Marketing Model. Relevant computing and communications technology convergence trends are also discussed. The recent trends in rapid advancement, convergence, and public adoption of Web-enabled cellular telephone and wireless personal digital assistant (PDA) devices provide timely opportunities to deliver the mass customization capabilities, reach, and interactivity required for the development, administration, and adoption of effective population-level eHealth tailored informational interventions for obesity.

  15. Length of Growing Period over Africa: Variability and Trends from 30 Years of NDVI Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Y. Said

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The spatial distribution of crops and farming systems in Africa is determined by the duration of the period during which crop and livestock water requirements are met. The length of growing period (LGP is normally assessed from weather station data—scarce in large parts of Africa—or coarse-resolution rainfall estimates derived from weather satellites. In this study, we analyzed LGP and its variability based on the 1981–2011 GIMMS NDVI3g dataset. We applied a variable threshold method in combination with a searching algorithm to determine start- and end-of-season. We obtained reliable LGP estimates for arid, semi-arid and sub-humid climates that are consistent in space and time. This approach effectively mapped bimodality for clearly separated wet seasons in the Horn of Africa. Due to cloud contamination, the identified bimodality along the Guinea coast was judged to be less certain. High LGP variability is dominant in arid and semi-arid areas, and is indicative of crop failure risk. Significant negative trends in LGP were found for the northern part of the Sahel, for parts of Tanzania and northern Mozambique, and for the short rains of eastern Kenya. Positive trends occurred across western Africa, in southern Africa, and in eastern Kenya for the long rains. Our LGP analysis provides useful information for the mapping of farming systems, and to study the effects of climate variability and other drivers of change on vegetation and crop suitability.

  16. Cycling in São Paulo, Brazil (1997-2012): Correlates, time trends and health consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sá, Thiago Hérick; Duran, Ana Clara; Tainio, Marko; Monteiro, Carlos Augusto; Woodcock, James

    2016-12-01

    The purpose of the study was to describe cyclists and cycling trips, and to explore correlates, time trends and health consequences of cycling in São Paulo, Brazil from 1997 to 2012. Cross-sectional analysis using repeated São Paulo Household Travel Surveys (HTS). At all time periods cycling was a minority travel mode in São Paulo (1174 people with cycling trips out of 214,719 people). Poisson regressions for individual correlates were estimated using the entire 2012 HTS sample. Men were six times more likely to cycle than women. We found rates of bicycle use rising over time among the richest quartile but total cycling rates dropped from 1997 to 2012 due to decreasing rates among the poor. Harms from air pollution would negate benefits from physical activity through cycling only at 1997 air pollution levels and at very high cycling levels (≥ 9 h of cycling per day). Exposure-based road injury risk decreased between 2007 and 2012, from 0.76 to 0.56 cyclist deaths per 1000 person-hours travelled. Policies to reduce spatial segregation, measures to tackle air pollution, improvements in dedicated cycling infrastructure, and integrating the bicycle with the public transport system in neighborhoods of all income levels could make cycling safer and prevent more individuals from abandoning the cycling mode in São Paulo.

  17. Cycling in São Paulo, Brazil (1997–2012: Correlates, time trends and health consequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thiago Hérick Sá

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the study was to describe cyclists and cycling trips, and to explore correlates, time trends and health consequences of cycling in São Paulo, Brazil from 1997 to 2012. Cross-sectional analysis using repeated São Paulo Household Travel Surveys (HTS. At all time periods cycling was a minority travel mode in São Paulo (1174 people with cycling trips out of 214,719 people. Poisson regressions for individual correlates were estimated using the entire 2012 HTS sample. Men were six times more likely to cycle than women. We found rates of bicycle use rising over time among the richest quartile but total cycling rates dropped from 1997 to 2012 due to decreasing rates among the poor. Harms from air pollution would negate benefits from physical activity through cycling only at 1997 air pollution levels and at very high cycling levels (≥9 h of cycling per day. Exposure-based road injury risk decreased between 2007 and 2012, from 0.76 to 0.56 cyclist deaths per 1000 person-hours travelled. Policies to reduce spatial segregation, measures to tackle air pollution, improvements in dedicated cycling infrastructure, and integrating the bicycle with the public transport system in neighborhoods of all income levels could make cycling safer and prevent more individuals from abandoning the cycling mode in São Paulo.

  18. Time-space trends in cancer incidence in The Netherlands in 1989–2003

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siesling, Sabine; Aa, van der Maaike A.; Coebergh, Jan W.W.; Pukkala, Eero

    2008-01-01

    Incidence of cancer may vary within a country and over time because of previous differences in exposure to risk factors or interventions for early detection (screening). This study describes time-space trends of incidence of common cancer sites across the Netherlands during the period 1989–2003 and

  19. Trend analysis of rainfall time series for Sindh river basin in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gajbhiye, Sarita; Meshram, Chandrashekhar; Mirabbasi, Rasoul; Sharma, S. K.

    2016-08-01

    The study of precipitation trends is critically important for a country like India whose food security and economy are dependent on the timely availability of water such as 83 % water used for agriculture sector, 12 % for industry sector and only 5 % for domestic sector. In this study, the historical rainfall data for the periods 1901-2002 and 1942-2002 of the Sindh river basin, India, were analysed for monthly, seasonal and annual trends. The conventional Mann-Kendall test (MK) and Mann-Kendall test (MMK), after the removal of the effect of all significant autocorrelation coefficients, and Sen's slope estimator were used to identify the trends. Kriging technique was used for interpolating the spatial pattern using Arc GIS 9.3. The analysis suggested significant increase in the trend of rainfall for seasonal and annual series in the Sindh basin during 1901-2002.

  20. Worldwide incidence of malaria in 2009: estimates, time trends, and a critique of methods.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard E Cibulskis

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Measuring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 6, including estimates of, and time trends in, the number of malaria cases, has relied on risk maps constructed from surveys of parasite prevalence, and on routine case reports compiled by health ministries. Here we present a critique of both methods, illustrated with national incidence estimates for 2009. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We compiled information on the number of cases reported by National Malaria Control Programs in 99 countries with ongoing malaria transmission. For 71 countries we estimated the total incidence of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax by adjusting the number of reported cases using data on reporting completeness, the proportion of suspects that are parasite-positive, the proportion of confirmed cases due to each Plasmodium species, and the extent to which patients use public sector health facilities. All four factors varied markedly among countries and regions. For 28 African countries with less reliable routine surveillance data, we estimated the number of cases from model-based methods that link measures of malaria transmission with case incidence. In 2009, 98% of cases were due to P. falciparum in Africa and 65% in other regions. There were an estimated 225 million malaria cases (5th-95th centiles, 146-316 million worldwide, 176 (110-248 million in the African region, and 49 (36-68 million elsewhere. Our estimates are lower than other published figures, especially survey-based estimates for non-African countries. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of malaria incidence derived from routine surveillance data were typically lower than those derived from surveys of parasite prevalence. Carefully interpreted surveillance data can be used to monitor malaria trends in response to control efforts, and to highlight areas where malaria programs and health information systems need to be strengthened. As malaria incidence declines around the world, evaluation of control efforts

  1. Empirical mode decomposition and k-nearest embedding vectors for timely analyses of antibiotic resistance trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas Teodoro

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Antibiotic resistance is a major worldwide public health concern. In clinical settings, timely antibiotic resistance information is key for care providers as it allows appropriate targeted treatment or improved empirical treatment when the specific results of the patient are not yet available. OBJECTIVE: To improve antibiotic resistance trend analysis algorithms by building a novel, fully data-driven forecasting method from the combination of trend extraction and machine learning models for enhanced biosurveillance systems. METHODS: We investigate a robust model for extraction and forecasting of antibiotic resistance trends using a decade of microbiology data. Our method consists of breaking down the resistance time series into independent oscillatory components via the empirical mode decomposition technique. The resulting waveforms describing intrinsic resistance trends serve as the input for the forecasting algorithm. The algorithm applies the delay coordinate embedding theorem together with the k-nearest neighbor framework to project mappings from past events into the future dimension and estimate the resistance levels. RESULTS: The algorithms that decompose the resistance time series and filter out high frequency components showed statistically significant performance improvements in comparison with a benchmark random walk model. We present further qualitative use-cases of antibiotic resistance trend extraction, where empirical mode decomposition was applied to highlight the specificities of the resistance trends. CONCLUSION: The decomposition of the raw signal was found not only to yield valuable insight into the resistance evolution, but also to produce novel models of resistance forecasters with boosted prediction performance, which could be utilized as a complementary method in the analysis of antibiotic resistance trends.

  2. Time trends in total ankle arthroplasty in the USA: a study of the National Inpatient Sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Jasvinder A; Ramachandran, Rekha

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to assess the time trends in utilization, clinical characteristics, and outcomes of patients undergoing total ankle arthroplasty (TAA) in the USA. We used the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) data from 1998 to 2010 to examine time trends in the utilization rates of TAA. We used the Cochran Armitage test for trend to assess time trends across the years and the analysis of variance (ANOVA), Wilcoxon test, or chi-squared test (as appropriate) to compare the first (1998-2000) and the last time periods (2009-2010). TAA utilization rate increased significant from 1998 to 2010: 0.13 to 0.84 per 100,000 overall, 0.14 to 0.88 per 100,000 in females, and from 0.11 to 0.81 per 100,000 in males (p  0.05). The utilization rate of TAA increased rapidly in the USA from 1998 to 2010, but post-arthroplasty mortality rate was stable. Underlying diagnosis and medical comorbidity changed over time and both can impact outcomes after TAA. Further studies should examine how the outcomes and complications of TAA have evolved over time.

  3. Time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among Greenland Inuit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, Peter; Larsen, Christina Viskum Lytken

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Suicides remain a major public health problem in Greenland. Their increase coincides with the modernization since 1950. Serious suicidal thoughts are reported by a significant proportion of participants in countrywide surveys. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the time trend by region of suicides...... women while the prevalence of suicidal thoughts was higher among women. Suicide rates for men and women together increased from 1960 to 1980 and have remained around 100 per 100,000 person-years since then. The regional pattern of time trend for suicide rates varied with an early peak in the capital......, a continued increase to very high rates in remote East and North Greenland and a slow increase in villages relative to towns on the West Coast. Suicidal thoughts followed the regional pattern for completed suicides. Especially for women there was a noticeable increasing trend in the villages. The relative...

  4. 45-Year trends in women's use of time and household management energy expenditure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Archer

    Full Text Available CONTEXT: Relationships between socio-environmental factors and obesity are poorly understood due to a dearth of longitudinal population-level research. The objective of this analysis was to examine 45-year trends in time-use, household management (HM and energy expenditure in women. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: Using national time-use data from women 19-64 years of age, we quantified time allocation and household management energy expenditure (HMEE from 1965 to 2010. HM was defined as the sum of time spent in food preparation, post-meal cleaning activities (e.g., dish-washing, clothing maintenance (e.g., laundry, and general housework. HMEE was calculated using body weights from national surveys and metabolic equivalents. RESULTS: The time allocated to HM by women (19-64 yrs decreased from 25.7 hr/week in 1965 to 13.3 hr/week in 2010 (P<0.001, with non-employed women decreasing by 16.6 hr/week and employed women by 6.7 hr/week (P<0.001. HMEE for non-employed women decreased 42% from 25.1 Mj/week (6004 kilocalories per week in 1965 to 14.6 Mj/week (3486 kcal/week in 2010, a decrement of 10.5 Mj/week or 1.5 Mj/day (2518 kcal/week; 360 kcal/day (P<0.001, whereas employed women demonstrated a 30% decrement of 3.9 Mj/week, 0.55 Mj/day (923 kcal/week, 132 kcal/day (P<0.001. The time women spent in screen-based media use increased from 8.3 hr/week in 1965 to 16.5 hr/week in 2010 (P<0.001, with non-employed women increasing 9.6 hr/week and employed women 7.5 hr/week (P<0.001. CONCLUSIONS: From 1965 to 2010, there was a large and significant decrease in the time allocated to HM. By 2010, women allocated 25% more time to screen-based media use than HM (i.e., cooking, cleaning, and laundry combined. The reallocation of time from active pursuits (i.e., housework to sedentary pastimes (e.g., watching TV has important health consequences. These results suggest that the decrement in HMEE may have contributed to the increasing prevalence of obesity in women during

  5. Time-trends of metals and organic contaminants in sewage sludge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olofsson, Ulrika; Bignert, Anders; Haglund, Peter

    2012-10-01

    The occurrence of chemicals in sludge from sewage treatment plants (STPs) is of concern for human health and the environment. Legislations and regulations are put in place to minimize the release of harmful chemicals into the environment and arable land, e.g. via application of sewage sludge. Temporal trends analysis of sludge contaminants can be used to assess the effectiveness of such actions. Such analyses can be performed retrospectively, using sludge stored in environmental specimen banks, to investigate new or emerging environmental contaminants. The present study provides data from time-trend analyses of metals, persistent organic pollutants, pharmaceuticals, personal care products, and other organic compounds in sludge from Swedish. The analysis showed that sludge is a suitable matrix for time-trend studies and it can take on average 12 years (range, 5-26 years) to track an annual change of ±10% (with a power of 80%). Statistically significant trends were found for 18 out of the 77 compounds subjected to analysis, of which 75% showed decreasing trends. Triclosan and the antibiotic norfloxacin followed the same trend as the national recorded usage and decreased annually by 65% and 60%, respectively. The opposite was true for the methylsiloxanes, which showed an annual average increase of about 30%. A downward trend (about 20% year⁻¹) was observed for the polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDEs 154 and 183), while PBDE 209 increased by 16%. Further measurements are required to determine if the substitution of PBDEs by chlorinated paraffins or organophosphorus compounds have resulted in increased concentrations of the latter in sludge.

  6. Magnitude and time trends of the life-time risk of developing cancer in Saarland, Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, H; Stegmaier, C; Ziegler, H

    1990-01-01

    The probability of developing cancer within defined age-intervals or during life-time was assessed for the population of Saarland, Germany in 1970-1972 and 1980-1985 based on life-tables and age-specific cancer incidence rates. As a result of increasing life expectancy and, for some forms of cancer, increasing age-specific incidence rates, the probability at birth of eventually developing a malignant neoplasm (ICD-9 140-208) increased from 24.12% in 1970-1972 to 32.35% in 1980-1985 in men, and from 24.76 to 29.72%, respectively, in women. Comparable calculations are presented and discussed for all of the most common malignancies in women and men. The relation to common measures of descriptive epidemiology, mainly the cumulative rate and the cumulative risk, is numerically illustrated.

  7. BRAVO/TeleTrend: a comprehensive WWW-based neuromonitoring system for the neurosurgery ICU.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nenov, V I; Buxey, F; Yamaguchi, Y

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes BRAVO/TeleTrend--a comprehensive client/server-based system for remote access, review and analyses of continuously acquired multiparametric physiological data from Intensive Care unit (ICU) patients. The system is designed as a distributed three tier model and implemented in Java (Sun Microsystems). TeleTrend is a data review package, which interfaces to existing physiological bedside monitors such as the BRAVO suite of products (Nicolet Biomedical, Madison, WI) and the vital signs monitors compatible with the Unity Network (Marquette Electronics, Milwaukee, WI). It does not transfer over the web the entire patient record, which can be hundreds of megabytes. Instead, it provides tools to view a compressed representation of the raw data in a trend display and to zoom into the raw data if needed. Thus, it eliminates the need for a high-bandwidth Internet connection and makes possible the use of a slower modem access to the vast amount of physiological data acquired per patient. In addition, TeleTrend features a rule-based module capable of generating clinical alerts, which is a potentially useful tool for neurointensivists and other critical care personnel. Finally, TeleTrend is intended as a multi-user, semi real-time telemedical application, which features built-in white-board and chat components. These components allow several physicians at different locations around the world to simultaneously view and brainstorm over critical chunks of continuously recorded raw and trend data. By allowing the end-user user to switch on-the-fly from monitoring patients in one ICU to those in another, and by integrating an HL7 interface TeleTrend steps over the boundaries of a single ICU. Thus, it can be provide a medical enterprise-wide solution to the remote access of an important component of the electronic patient medical record. Currently in house validation, verification and alpha testing of the system are underway.

  8. Trends in No Leisure-Time Physical Activity--United States, 1988-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Latetia V.; Harris, Carmen D.; Carlson, Susan A.; Kruger, Judy; Fulton, Janet E.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this study was to examine trends in the prevalence of no leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) from 1988 to 2010. Method: Using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data, 35 states and the District of Columbia reported information on no LTPA from 1988 to 1994; all states reported no LTPA from 1996 to 2010. Results: No…

  9. A Google Trends-based approach for monitoring NSSI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bragazzi NL

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Nicola Luigi Bragazzi DINOGMI, Department of Neuroscience, Rehabilitation, Ophthalmology, Genetics, Maternal and Child Health, Section of Psychiatry, University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy Abstract: Non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI is an intentional, direct, and socially unacceptable behavior resulting in the destruction of one's own body tissues with no intention of dying or committing suicide, even though it is associated with a higher risk of attempted, planned, or just considered suicide. In this preliminary report, we introduce the concept of “NSSI 2.0”; that is to say, the study of the Internet usage by subjects with NSSI, and we introduce a Google Trends-based approach for monitoring NSSI, called NSSI infodemiology and infoveillance. Despite some limitations, Google Trends has already proven to be reliable for infectious diseases monitoring, and here we extend its application and potentiality in the field of suicidology. Ad hoc web portals and surveys could be designed in light of the reported results for helping people with NSSI. Keywords: infodemiology, infoveillance, Internet, non-suicidal self-injury

  10. Reference population for international comparisons and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery proportions in three countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morken, N.H.; Vogel, I.; Kallen, K.;

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: International comparison and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery rates is complex. New techniques that could facilitate interpretation of such rates are needed. METHODS: We studied all live births and stillbirths (>or= 28 weeks gestation) registered in the medical birth...... comparisons over time. This model may in its simplicity prove to be a valuable supplement to assessments of national preterm delivery rates for public health surveillance Udgivelsesdato: 2008...

  11. Gender Differences Time Trends for Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components among Tehranian Children and Adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Barzin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims. To investigate the trend of metabolic syndrome and its components in Tehran children and adolescents during a median followup of 6.6 years. Methods. Data from 1999–2001 (phase I, 2002–2005 (phase II, and 2006–2008 (phase III of the Tehran, Lipid and Glucose Study were analyzed (=5439; age 6–18 years for the trend of metabolic syndrome (MetS and its components. General estimation equation (GEE models were used to analyze this correlated data. Results. The crude prevalence of MetS for boys at baseline was 13.2%, which increased to 16.4% in the third phase. In girls, the prevalence of Mets decreased from 11.8% at baseline to 6% during followup. The odd ratios (OR of obesity over the whole study period were raised in both sexes. The OR of abdominal obesity increased significantly in boys, but no change was observed in girls. No significant OR was observed in boys, while OR for MetS was shown to have a decreasing trend in girls during the followup. In the three time points, the ORs of MetS decreased significantly in girls but no significant difference was observed in boys. Conclusion. Inspite of increasing trend for obesity in both sexes, the trend of MetS decreased in girls and was relatively stable in boys, in Tehranian children, and adolescents.

  12. Mindfulness-based cognitive therapy for depression: trends and developments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MacKenzie MB

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Meagan B MacKenzie,1 Nancy L Kocovski21Department of Psychology, Ryerson University, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2Department of Psychology, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, ON, CanadaAbstract: Mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT was developed as a psychological intervention for individuals at risk of depressive relapse. Possible mechanisms of change for this intervention are in line with its theoretical underpinnings, and include increases in mindfulness and/or decreases in negative repetitive thoughts. This review provides an overview of current trends in MBCT research, including efficacy and questions regarding the specific effects of MBCT in light of recent comparisons with structurally equivalent control conditions, mechanisms of change, and moderators of treatment outcome. In addition, future directions are discussed, such as challenges with training an adequate number of therapists and disseminating this therapy.Keywords: MBCT, efficacy, mechanisms of change, dissemination, moderators

  13. A global perspective on trends in nature-based tourism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balmford, Andrew; Beresford, James; Green, Jonathan; Naidoo, Robin; Walpole, Matt; Manica, Andrea

    2009-06-30

    Reports of rapid growth in nature-based tourism and recreation add significant weight to the economic case for biodiversity conservation but seem to contradict widely voiced concerns that people are becoming increasingly isolated from nature. This apparent paradox has been highlighted by a recent study showing that on a per capita basis, visits to natural areas in the United States and Japan have declined over the last two decades. These results have been cited as evidence of "a fundamental and pervasive shift away from nature-based recreation"-but how widespread is this phenomenon? We address this question by looking at temporal trends in visitor numbers at 280 protected areas (PAs) from 20 countries. This more geographically representative dataset shows that while PA visitation (whether measured as total or per capita visit numbers) is indeed declining in the United States and Japan, it is generally increasing elsewhere. Total visit numbers are growing in 15 of the 20 countries for which we could get data, with the median national rate of change unrelated to the national rate of population growth but negatively associated with wealth. Reasons for this reversal of growth in the richest countries are difficult to pin down with existing data, but the pattern is mirrored by trends in international tourist arrivals as a whole and so may not necessarily be caused by disaffection with nature. Irrespective of the explanation, it is clear that despite important downturns in some countries, nature-related tourism is far from declining everywhere, and may still have considerable potential both to generate funds for conservation and to shape people's attitudes to the environment.

  14. Adding trend data to Depletion-Based Stock Reduction Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Bayesian model of Depletion-Based Stock Reduction Analysis (DB-SRA), informed by a time series of abundance indexes, was developed, using the Sampling Importance...

  15. Mapping Mountain Pine Beetle Mortality through Growth Trend Analysis of Time-Series Landsat Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Liang

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Disturbances are key processes in the carbon cycle of forests and other ecosystems. In recent decades, mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae outbreaks have become more frequent and extensive in western North America. Remote sensing has the ability to fill the data gaps of long-term infestation monitoring, but the elimination of observational noise and attributing changes quantitatively are two main challenges in its effective application. Here, we present a forest growth trend analysis method that integrates Landsat temporal trajectories and decision tree techniques to derive annual forest disturbance maps over an 11-year period. The temporal trajectory component successfully captures the disturbance events as represented by spectral segments, whereas decision tree modeling efficiently recognizes and attributes events based upon the characteristics of the segments. Validated against a point set sampled across a gradient of MPB mortality, 86.74% to 94.00% overall accuracy was achieved with small variability in accuracy among years. In contrast, the overall accuracies of single-date classifications ranged from 37.20% to 75.20% and only become comparable with our approach when the training sample size was increased at least four-fold. This demonstrates that the advantages of this time series work flow exist in its small training sample size requirement. The easily understandable, interpretable and modifiable characteristics of our approach suggest that it could be applicable to other ecoregions.

  16. Trends in Flow-based Biosensing Systems for Pesticide Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Louis Marty

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available This review gives a survey on the state of the art of pesticide detection usingflow-based biosensing systems for sample screening. Although immunosensor systems havebeen proposed as powerful pesticide monitoring tools, this review is mainly focused onenzyme-based biosensors, as they are the most commonly employed when using a flowsystem. Among the different detection methods able to be integrated into flow-injectionanalysis (FIA systems, the electrochemical ones will be treated in more detail, due to theirhigh sensitivity, simple sample pretreatment, easy operational procedures and real-timedetection. During the last decade, new trends have been emerging in order to increase theenzyme stability, the sensitivity and selectivity of the measurements, and to lower thedetection limits. These approaches are based on (i the design of novel matrices for enzymeimmobilisation, (ii new manifold configurations of the FIA system, sometimes includingminiaturisation or lab-on-chip protocols thanks to micromachining technology, (iii the useof cholinesterase enzymes either from various commercial sources or genetically modifiedwith the aim of being more sensitive, (iv the incorporation of other highly specificenzymes, such as organophosphate hydrolase (OPH or parathion hydrolase (PH and (v thecombination of different electrochemical methods of detection. This article discusses thesenovel strategies and their advantages and limitations.

  17. Geo-mapping of time trends in childhood caries risk--a method for assessment of preventive care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strömberg, Ulf; Holmn, Anders; Magnusson, Kerstin;

    2012-01-01

    Dental caries is unevenly distributed within populations with a higher burden in low socio-economy groups. Several attempts have been made to allocate resources to those that need them the most; there is a need for convenient approaches to population-based monitoring of caries risk over time. The....... The aim of this study was to develop the geo-map concept, addressing time trends in caries risk, and demonstrate the novel approach by analyzing epidemiological data from preschool residents in the region of Halland, Sweden....

  18. NOAA Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry Sea Level Rise Products: Global and regional sea level time series and trend maps for the major ocean basins and marginal seas, based on measurements from satellite radar altimeters, from 1992-12-17 to 2016-09-15 (NCEI Accession 0125535)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This archival package contains global and regional mean sea level time series and trend maps calculated on a continual basis since December 1992 by Laboratory for...

  19. Methodological issues in analyzing time trends in biologic fertility: protection bias

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Key, Jane; Best, Nicky; Joffe, Michael

    2009-01-01

    One method of assessing biologic fertility is to measure time to pregnancy (TTP). Accidental pregnancies do not generate a valid TTP value and lead to nonrandom missing data if couples experiencing accidental pregnancies are more fertile than the general population. If factors affecting the rate...... of accidental pregnancies, such as availability of effective contraception and induced abortion, vary over time, then the result may be protection bias in the estimates of fertility time trends. Six European data sets were analyzed to investigate whether evidence of protection bias exists in TTP studies...

  20. Forty years trends in timing of pubertal growth spurt in 157,000 Danish school children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aksglæde, Lise; Olsen, Lina Wøhlk; Sørensen, Thorkild I.A.;

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Entering puberty is an important milestone in reproductive life and secular changes in the timing of puberty may be an important indicator of the general reproductive health in a population. Too early puberty is associated with several psychosocial and health problems. The aim of our...... a secular trend towards earlier sexual maturation of Danish children born between 1930 and 1969. Only minor changes were observed in duration of puberty assessed by the difference in ages at OGS and PHV Udgivelsesdato: 2008...

  1. Time series requirements and trends of temperature and precipitation extremes over Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fioravanti, Guido; Desiato, Franco; Fraschetti, Piero; Perconti, Walter; Piervitali, Emanuela

    2013-04-01

    Extreme climate events have strong impacts on society and economy; accordingly,the knowledge of their trends on long period is crucial for the definition and implementation of a national adaptation strategy to climate change. The Research Programme on Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) identified a set of temperature and precipitation indices suited to investigate variability and trends of climate extremes. It is well known that extreme indices calculation is more demanding than first and second order statistics are: daily temperature and precipitation data are required and strict constrains in terms of continuity and completeness must be met. In addition, possible dishomogeneities affecting time series must be identified and adjusted before indices calculation. When metadata are not available, statistical methods can provide scientist a relevant support for homogeneity check; however, ad-hoc decision criteria (sometimes subjective) must be applied whenever contradictory results characterize different statistical homogeneity tests. In this work, a set of daily (minimum and maximum) temperature and precipitation time series for the period 1961-2011 were selected in order to guarantee a quite uniform spatial distribution of the stations over the Italian territory and according to the afore-said continuity and completeness criteria. Following the method described by Vincent, the homogeneity check of temperature time series was run at annual level. Two well-documented tests were employed (F-test and T-test), both implemented in the free R-package RHtestV3. The Vincent method was also used for a further investigation of time series homogeneity. Temperature dishomogeneous series were discarded. For precipitation series, no homogeneity check was run. The selected series were employed at daily level to calculate a reliable set of extreme indices. For each station, a linear model was employed for indices trend estimation. Finally, single station results were

  2. Evaluation of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone trends over Western Europe from ground-based FTIR network observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Vigouroux

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Within the European project UFTIR (Time series of Upper Free Troposphere observations from an European ground-based FTIR network, six ground-based stations in Western Europe, from 79° N to 28° N, all equipped with Fourier Transform infrared (FTIR instruments and part of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC, have joined their efforts to evaluate the trend of several direct and indirect greenhouse gases over the period 1995–2004. The retrievals of CO, CH4, C2H6, N2O, CHClF2, and O3 have been optimized. Using the optimal estimation method, some vertical information can be obtained in addition to total column amounts. A bootstrap resampling method has been implemented to determine annual partial and total column trends for the target gases. The present work focuses on the ozone results. The retrieved time series of partial and total ozone columns are validated with ground-based correlative data (Brewer, Dobson, UV-Vis, ozonesondes, and Lidar. The observed total column ozone trends are in agreement with previous studies: 1 no total column ozone trend is seen at the lowest latitude station Izaña (28° N; 2 slightly positive total column trends are seen at the two mid-latitude stations Zugspitze and Jungfraujoch (47° N, only one of them being significant; 3 the highest latitude stations Harestua (60° N, Kiruna (68° N and Ny-Ålesund (79° N show significant positive total column trends. Following the vertical information contained in the ozone FTIR retrievals, we provide partial columns trends for the layers: ground-10 km, 10–18 km, 18–27 km, and 27–42 km, which helps to distinguish the contributions from dynamical and chemical changes on the total column ozone trends. We obtain no statistically significant trends in the ground–10 km layer for five out of the six ground-based stations. We find significant positive trends for the lowermost

  3. Evaluation of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone trends over Western Europe from ground-based FTIR network observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Vigouroux

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Within the European project UFTIR (Time series of Upper Free Troposphere observations from an European ground-based FTIR network, six ground-based stations in Western Europe, from 79° N to 28° N, all equipped with Fourier Transform infrared (FTIR instruments and part of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC, have joined their efforts to evaluate the trends of several direct and indirect greenhouse gases over the period 1995–2004. The retrievals of CO, CH4, C2H6, N2O, CHClF2, and O3 have been optimized. Using the optimal estimation method, some vertical information can be obtained in addition to total column amounts. A bootstrap resampling method has been implemented to determine annual partial and total column trends for the target gases. The present work focuses on the ozone results. The retrieved time series of partial and total ozone columns are validated with ground-based correlative data (Brewer, Dobson, UV-Vis, ozonesondes, and Lidar. The observed total column ozone trends are in agreement with previous studies: 1 no total column ozone trend is seen at the lowest latitude station Izaña (28° N; 2 slightly positive total column trends are seen at the two mid-latitude stations Zugspitze and Jungfraujoch (47° N, only one of them being significant; 3 the highest latitude stations Harestua (60° N, Kiruna (68° N and Ny-Ålesund (79° N show significant positive total column trends. Following the vertical information contained in the ozone FTIR retrievals, we provide partial columns trends for the layers: ground-10 km, 10–18 km, 18–27 km, and 27–42 km, which helps to distinguish the contributions from dynamical and chemical changes on the total column ozone trends. We obtain no statistically significant trends in the ground-10 km layer for five out of the six ground-based stations. We find significant positive trends for the lowermost

  4. Time-trend and variations in the proportion of second-eye cataract surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernal-Delgado Enrique

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite recommendations for greater use of second-eye cataract surgery and the bilateral progression of the disease, there is a substantial proportion of unmet need for this treatment. Few studies have explored the factors associated with second-eye cataract surgery utilisation. The objective of our study was to estimate the proportion of second-eye cataract surgery, evaluate its time-trend, and explore differences in utilisation by patients' gender, age, and region of residence. Methods All senile cataract surgeries performed between 1999 and 2002 in the public health system of Catalonia (Spain were obtained from the Minimum Data Set. The proportion of second-eye surgery from November 2000 to December 2002 was calculated. The time-trend of this proportion was characterised through linear regression models with the logarithmic transformation of time. Results The proportion of second-eye surgery was 30.0% and showed an increasing trend from 24.8% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 21.6; 26.1 in November 2000 to 31.8% (95% CI 31.4; 33.6 in December 2002. This proportion was 1.9% (95% CI 0.9; 2.9 higher in women (p Conclusion We predict greater utilization of second-eye surgery in patients aged 70 to 79 years and in women. A greater increase in the utilisation rates of second-eye surgery is expected in the regions with lower proportions and in older patients. The observed trend suggests that there will be a substantial proportion of unmet need for bilateral surgery.

  5. On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Zhaohua [Florida State University, Department of Meteorology and Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Huang, Norden E. [National Central University, Research Center for Adaptive Data Analysis Center, Chungli (China); Wallace, John M.; Smoliak, Brian V. [University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA (United States); Chen, Xianyao [State Oceanic Administration, The First Institute of Oceanography, Qingdao (China)

    2011-08-15

    The Earth has warmed at an unprecedented pace in the decades of the 1980s and 1990s (IPCC in Climate change 2007: the scientific basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007). In Wu et al. (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:14889-14894, 2007) we showed that the rapidity of the warming in the late twentieth century was a result of concurrence of a secular warming trend and the warming phase of a multidecadal ({proportional_to}65-year period) oscillatory variation and we estimated the contribution of the former to be about 0.08 C per decade since {proportional_to}1980. Here we demonstrate the robustness of those results and discuss their physical links, considering in particular the shape of the secular trend and the spatial patterns associated with the secular trend and the multidecadal variability. The shape of the secular trend and rather globally-uniform spatial pattern associated with it are both suggestive of a response to the buildup of well-mixed greenhouse gases. In contrast, the multidecadal variability tends to be concentrated over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and particularly over the North Atlantic, suggestive of a possible link to low frequency variations in the strength of the thermohaline circulation. Depending upon the assumed importance of the contributions of ocean dynamics and the time-varying aerosol emissions to the observed trends in global-mean surface temperature, we estimate that up to one third of the late twentieth century warming could have been a consequence of natural variability. (orig.)

  6. Arresting Strategy Based on Dynamic Criminal Networks Changing over Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junqing Yuan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate a sequence of dynamic criminal networks on a time series based on the dynamic network analysis (DNA. According to the change of networks’ structure, networks’ variation trend is analyzed to forecast its future structure. Finally, an optimal arresting time and priority list are designed based on our analysis. Better results can be expected than that based on social network analysis (SNA.

  7. Time trends of incidence of digestive system cancers in changle of China during :1988-2002

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jun Tian; Jian-Shun Chen

    2006-01-01

    AIM: To analyze the incidence of digestive system cancer in Changle of China over a 15-year period.METHODS: The datasets were presented as timeseries of China-standardized annual incidence during 1988-2002. Linear regression model was used to analyze the incidence of stomach, liver, esophagus and colorectal cancers.RESULTS: Linear regression models for the time-series of stomach and esophagus cancer incidences for both men and women were statistically significant (P<0.05);Regression models for liver cancer and for colorectal cancer were statistically significant for men (P<0.05).CONCLUSION: The incidence rates of stomach and esophagus cancers for both men and women had down tendencies. For men, liver cancer had a down trend of the incidence and colorectal cancer had an upward trend of the incidence rate.

  8. Organochlorine residues in South American sea lions, Otaria flavescens (Shaw, 1800): bioaccumulation and time trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borrell, A; Garcia-Solà, A; Aguilar, A; García, N A; Crespo, E A

    2010-06-01

    Blubber from stranded South American sea lions (Otaria flavescens) was sampled between 1991 and 2005 on the Peninsula Valdés in Argentina and analyzed for organochlorine (OC) pollutants. Mean blubber concentrations, expressed on an extractable basis, were 686 (SD = 1,060) ng g(-1) for dichlorodiphenyl trichloroethane (tDDT) and 735 (SD = 787) ng g(-1) for polychlorinated byphenils (PCB). The OC levels were well below those associated with adverse sublethal effects and lethality in mammals. OC concentrations showed statistically significant associations with age that were positive in males and negative in females. These trends are consistent with the majority of marine mammal populations studied. There were no trends in the levels of tDDT or PCB over time. In spite of the low levels detected, OC contamination was present consistently over the 14-year period, suggesting continuous inputs from geographic redistribution.

  9. Current Trends in Computer-Based Education in Medicine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farquhar, Barbara B.; Votaw, Robert G.

    1978-01-01

    Important current trends in the use of computer technology to enhance medical education are reported in the areas of simulation and assessment of clinical competence, curriculum integration, financial support, and means of exchanging views and scientific information. (RAO)

  10. Fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and the probabilities of trends of fuzzy logical relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shyi-Ming; Chen, Shen-Wen

    2015-03-01

    In this paper, we present a new method for fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and the probabilities of trends of fuzzy-trend logical relationships. Firstly, the proposed method fuzzifies the historical training data of the main factor and the secondary factor into fuzzy sets, respectively, to form two-factors second-order fuzzy logical relationships. Then, it groups the obtained two-factors second-order fuzzy logical relationships into two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups. Then, it calculates the probability of the "down-trend," the probability of the "equal-trend" and the probability of the "up-trend" of the two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationships in each two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship group, respectively. Finally, it performs the forecasting based on the probabilities of the down-trend, the equal-trend, and the up-trend of the two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationships in each two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship group. We also apply the proposed method to forecast the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) and the NTD/USD exchange rates. The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the existing methods.

  11. Clinical signs indicative of temporomandibular disorders in adults: time trends and associated factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köhler, Alkisti Anastassaki; Hugoson, Anders; Magnusson, Tomas

    2013-01-01

    The study aimed to examine possible time trends in the prevalence of clinical signs indicative of temporomandibular disorder (TMD) in an adult population, to analyse possible associations between TMD signs and associated factors and to estimate the need for TMD treatment. Three independent, stratified and randomly selected samples of around 100 individuals in the age groups of 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70 years participated in the Jönköping studies in 1983,1993 and 2003. The study material consisted of 1,693 subjects who, after answering a questionnaire and being interviewed about the presence of TMD symptoms, were clinically examined in terms of the presence of TMD signs according to the Clinical Dysfunction Index (Di) by Helkimo. Associations between clinical signs and the Di as dependent variables and each of the independent variables of age group, gender, reported bruxism, trauma, self-perceived healthiness and the year of investigation were analysed in binary logistic regression models. Estimates of the need for TMD treatment were based on the presence of a combination of severe symptoms and clinical signs. The prevalence of severely impaired jaw movement capacity, relating to horizontal movements, had increased in 2003. The prevalence of muscle pain and temporomandibular joint pain upon posterior palpation was found to vary statistically significantly between 1993 and 2003. Gender differences were noted in these changes overtime. Female gender, advancing age, awareness of bruxism, self-perceived health impairment and the wearing of complete dentures were associated with TMD signs and a higher degree of clinical dysfunction. The estimated need for TMD treatment increased from 5% in 1983 to 8% in 2003 and was higher in women than in men. In conclusion, the results indicate that the prevalence of some TMD signs and of estimated treatment need increased during the period 1983-2003.

  12. Time trends in the incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Norway during eight decades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grytten, N; Torkildsen, Ø; Myhr, K-M

    2015-01-01

    Norway has been subjected to numerous epidemiological investigations on the prevalence and incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS), dating back to 1935. The objective of this study was to review the studies on the prevalence and incidence of MS in Norway, provide an update on the prevalence of MS in Norway, and describe the time trends in the prevalence and incidence of MS in relation to risk factors, case ascertainment, and data. We performed a systematic search on PubMed and MEDLINE up to November 2014 using the search string 'multiple sclerosis prevalence in Norway' or 'multiple sclerosis incidence in Norway'. In addition, we scrutinized the reference lists of the publications identified for relevant citations. We retrieved data on the distribution of MS in Norway on December 31, 2013 from the Norwegian Multiple Sclerosis Registry and Biobank and the Norwegian Patient Registry. We identified 29 articles. From 1961 to 2014, the reported prevalence of MS increased from 20 to 203 per 100,000 inhabitants, and the incidence increased from 1.9 to 8.0 per 100,000. The nationwide crude prevalence in Norway, based on the Norwegian Patient Registry, was 208 per 100,000 on December 31, 2013. The reported prevalence of MS in Norway has increased 10-fold, with several possible causes. During eight decades, neurological health services have generally become more accessible to the population, and transforming diagnostic criteria has made the diagnosis of MS more precise and valid. There have also been changes in lifestyle behavior and known risk factors, such as vitamin D and smoking, that might have contributed to the increased incidence of MS. A possible role of increased survival in MS needs to be examined further.

  13. Defining a Trend for a Time Series Which Makes Use of the Intrinsic Time-Scale Decomposition

    CERN Document Server

    Restrepo, Juan M; Comeau, Darin; Flaschka, Hermann

    2014-01-01

    We propose criteria that define a trend for time series with inherent multi-scale features. We call this trend the {\\it tendency} of a time series. The tendency is defined empirically by a set of criteria and captures the large-scale temporal variability of the original signal as well as the most frequent events in its histogram. Among other properties, the tendency has a variance no larger than that of the original signal; the histogram of the difference between the original signal and the tendency is as symmetric as possible; and with reduced complexity, the tendency captures essential features of the signal. To find the tendency we first use the Intrinsic Time-Scale Decomposition (ITD) of the signal, introduced in 2007 by Frei and Osorio, to produce a set of candidate tendencies. We then apply the criteria to each of the candidates to single out the one that best agrees with them. While the criteria for the tendency are independent of the signal decomposition scheme, it is found that the ITD is a simple an...

  14. Recent Trends in Field-Effect Transistors-Based Immunosensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Carolina Mazarin de Moraes

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Immunosensors are analytical platforms that detect specific antigen-antibody interactions and play an important role in a wide range of applications in biomedical clinical diagnosis, food safety, and monitoring contaminants in the environment. Field-effect transistors (FET immunosensors have been developed as promising alternatives to conventional immunoassays, which require complicated processes and long-time data acquisition. The electrical signal of FET-based immunosensors is generated as a result of the antigen-antibody conjugation. FET biosensors present real-time and rapid response, require small sample volume, and exhibit higher sensitivity and selectivity. This review brings an overview on the recent literature of FET-based immunosensors, highlighting a diversity of nanomaterials modified with specific receptors as immunosensing platforms for the ultrasensitive detection of various biomolecules.

  15. Twenty four year time trends in fats and cholesterol intake by adolescents. Warsaw Adolescents Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charzewska Jadwiga

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to determine time trends (1982–2006 in total fat intake and changes in fatty acid structure intake in adolescents from Warsaw in view of increasing prevalence of obesity. Data come from four successive surveys randomly selected samples of adolescents (aged 11–15 years old, from Warsaw region. In total 9747 pupils have been examined, with response rate varying from 55% to 87% depending on year. Surveys were done always in the spring season of the year. Food intake was assessed by using 24 hours recall method of consumption by the pupils all products, including enriched, dishes and beverages as well as diet supplements, in the last 24 hours preceding the examination. The content of energy and nutrients was calculated by means of own computer softwares (DIET 2 and 4, taking into account successive revisions of the tables of food composition and nutritional values, as well as current Polish DRI. A significant decreasing trend was found in intake of total fat, of saturated fatty acids (SFA and cholesterol. The percentage of energy from total fat, also decreased both in boys (to 35,1% and girls (to 33,7%, what failed to reach the desired level below 30% of energy from fat which is recommended. Also significant decrease of SFA consumption was not satisfactory enough to approach the values <10% of energy recommended as was from 13% to 15%. Decreasing trends in fat intake was not in accordance with the trend in obesity prevalence in the adolescents as average BMI is going up. To stabilize the health-oriented changes especially in the diets of adolescents, further activity is desired from professionals working with prevention of adolescents obesity.

  16. Decreasing prevalence and time trend of gastroschisis in 14 cities of Liaoning Province: 2006–2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Na; Chen, Yan-Ling; Li, Jing; Li, Li-Li; Jiang, Cheng-Zhi; Zhou, Chen; Liu, Cai-Xia; Li, Da; Gong, Ting-Ting; Wu, Qi-Jun; Huang, Yan-Hong

    2016-01-01

    To identify trends in the prevalence of gastroschisis on the basis of a large population-based observation study with cases identified by the Liaoning Birth Defects Registry including 14 cities over the course of a 10-year period. Data were obtained from the aforementioned registry which was maintained by the Liaoning Women and Children’s Health Hospital, a comprehensive care institution as well as being responsible for the women’s and children’s health care guidance in this province. Gastroschisis prevalence, percent change, annual percent change (APC), and contribution rates of each city were calculated. We observed 747 cases of gastroschisis among 3,248,954 live births, for a prevalence of 2.30 per 10,000 births. The gastroschisis prevalence significantly decreased by 12.63% per year in Liaoning Province. Although the decreasing trends were observed in all these 14 cities, significant results were only observed in Shenyang (APC = −16.31%), Tieling (APC = −20.23%), and Chaoyang (APC = −13.50%). Notably, Tieling, Shenyang, and Yingkou were the three major cities which contributed almost 37.17% of the decreasing trend of gastroschisis in Liaoning Province. In conclusion, our findings demonstrate that the prevalence of gastroschisis has been decreasing during the recent decade among 14 cities in Liaoning Province. PMID:27623985

  17. Time trends of perfluorinated alkyl acids in serum from Danish pregnant women 2008-2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard-Olesen, Christian; Bach, Cathrine C; Long, Manhai;

    2016-01-01

    We aimed to estimate the levels and time trends of perfluorinated alkyl acids (PFAAs) in serum of 1533 Danish pregnant nulliparous women between 2008 and 2013. The selection criterion of only including nulliparous women was chosen to avoid confounding from parity. The serum samples were analyzed...... (PFOS), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA), and perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnA). We found that the serum levels of all seven PFAAs decreased during the period from 2008 to 2013; on average PFHxS decreased with 7.0% per year, PFHpS with 14...

  18. Morbidity pattern and time trends of filaria cases at a PHC in Dakshina Kannada District.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravikiran, E; Sajjan, B S; Vijaya, K; Kumar, S; Ramkrishna, V A; Dev, A V; Jegan, D P

    2005-01-01

    A study on morbity pattern and time trends of filaria cases was carried out in a PHC of Dakshin Kannada District during November 2000 to January 2001. The age and sex distribution of all 416 filaria cases recorded revealed that 235 (56.49%) were females and maximum concentration of 263 (63.21%) was in the age group of 16-45 years. The seasonal distribution revealed that rainy season accounted the highest number of cases 197 (47.35%). The prevalence was highest, 1.96/1000 population in the year 1993 and lowest, 0.71/1000 population in the year 1995.

  19. Demonstrating trend reversal of groundwater quality in relation to time of recharge determined by 3H/3He

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, A.; Broers, H.P.; Grift, B. van der; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2007-01-01

    Recent EU legislation is directed to reverse the upward trends in the concentrations of agricultural pollutants in groundwater. However, uncertainty of the groundwater travel time towards the screens of the groundwater quality monitoring networks complicates the demonstration of trend reversal. We i

  20. Fast or slow food? Explaining trends in food-related time in the Netherlands, 1975-2005

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandemakers, J.J.; Roeters, A.

    2015-01-01

    The current study analysed trends in the time spent preparing and consuming food and the frequency of outsourcing (going out for dinner and take-out) in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2005. We investigated differences between trends on week and weekend days and for different socio-demographic groups.

  1. Fast or slow food? Explaining trends in food-related time in the Netherlands, 1975–2005

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandemakers, J.J.; Roeters, Anne

    2014-01-01

    The current study analysed trends in the time spent preparing and consuming food and the frequency of outsourcing (going out for dinner and take-out) in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2005. We investigated differences between trends on week and weekend days and for different socio-demographic groups.

  2. Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mudelsee

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A fundamental problem in paleoclimatology is to take fully into account the various error sources when examining proxy records with quantitative methods of statistical time series analysis. Records from dated climate archives such as speleothems add extra uncertainty from the age determination to the other sources that consist in measurement and proxy errors. This paper examines three stalagmite time series of oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O from two caves in western Germany, the series AH-1 from the Atta Cave and the series Bu1 and Bu4 from the Bunker Cave. These records carry regional information about past changes in winter precipitation and temperature. U/Th and radiocarbon dating reveals that they cover the later part of the Holocene, the past 8.6 thousand years (ka. We analyse centennial- to millennial-scale climate trends by means of nonparametric Gasser–Müller kernel regression. Error bands around fitted trend curves are determined by combining (1 block bootstrap resampling to preserve noise properties (shape, autocorrelation of the δ18O residuals and (2 timescale simulations (models StalAge and iscam. The timescale error influences on centennial- to millennial-scale trend estimation are not excessively large. We find a "mid-Holocene climate double-swing", from warm to cold to warm winter conditions (6.5 ka to 6.0 ka to 5.1 ka, with warm–cold amplitudes of around 0.5‰ δ18O; this finding is documented by all three records with high confidence. We also quantify the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, the Little Ice Age (LIA and the current warmth. Our analyses cannot unequivocally support the conclusion that current regional winter climate is warmer than that during the MWP.

  3. Trends in hydrodesulfurization catalysis based on realistic surface models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moses, P.G.; Grabow, L.C.; Fernandez Sanchez, Eva

    2014-01-01

    Trends in hydrodesulfurization (HDS) activity are investigated on the basis of surface properties calculated by density functional theory for a series of HDS catalysts. It is shown that approximately linear correlations exist between HS group binding energies and activation barriers of key elemen...

  4. Gender-Based Violence in India: Long-Term Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simister, John; Mehta, Parnika S.

    2010-01-01

    This article examines long-term trends in Indian society regarding domestic violence between husband and wife, and attitudes to such violence. This article analyzes crime data and uses data from several Indian household surveys: "Work Attitudes and Spending" surveys (1992 to 2007); "World Values Survey" (1990, 1995, 2001, and…

  5. Time trends in HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance mutation frequency in Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milosz Parczewski

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In Poland, the HIV epidemic has shifted recently from being predominantly related to injection drug use (IDU to being driven by transmissions among men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM. The number of new HIV cases has increased in the recent years, while no current data on the transmitted drug resistance associated mutations (tDRM frequency trend over time are available from 2010. In this study, we analyze the temporal trends in the spread of tDRM from 2008 to 2013. Materials and Methods: Partial pol sequences from 833 antiretroviral treatment-naive individuals of European descent (Polish origin linked to care in 9 of 17 Polish HIV treatment centres were analyzed. Drug resistance interpretation was performed according to WHO surveillance recommendations, subtyping with REGA genotyping 2.0 tool. Time trends were examined for the frequency of t-DRM across subtypes and transmission groups using logistic regression (R statistical platform, v. 3.1.0. Results: Frequency of tDRM proved stable over time, with mutation frequency change from 11.3% in 2008 to 8.3% in 2013 [OR: 0.91 (95% CI 0.80–1,05, p=0.202] (Figure 1a. Also, no significant differences over time were noted for the subtype B (decrease from 8.4% 2008 to 6.2% in 2013 [OR: 0.94 (95% CI 0.79–1.11, p=0.45] and across non-B variants [change from 22.6% 2008 to 23.1% in 2013, OR: 0.94 (95% CI 0.75–1.19, p=0.62]. When patient groups were stratified according to transmission route, in MSM there was a trend for a NNRTI t-DRM decrease (from 6.8% 2008 to 1% in 2013, OR: 0.61 (95% CI 0.34–1.02, p=0.0655, slope −0.74%/year (Figure 1b, related to the subtype B infected MSM (decrease from 7% 2008 to 1% in 2013, OR: 0.61 (95% CI 0.34–1.03, p=0.0662, slope −0.75%/year. Overall tDRM frequency decrease was also noted for the heterosexually infected patients [from 17.6% 2008 to 10.3% in 2013, OR: 0.83 (95% CI 0.67–1.02, p=0.077, slope −2.041%/year] but did not associate with drug class

  6. Variability and trends of ocean acidification in the Southern California Current System: A time series from Santa Monica Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leinweber, A.; Gruber, N.

    2013-07-01

    We investigate the temporal variability and trends of pH and of the aragonite saturation state, Ωarag, in the southern California Current System on the basis of a 6 year time series from Santa Monica Bay, using biweekly observations of dissolved inorganic carbon and combined calculated and measured alkalinity. Median values of pH and Ωarag in the upper 20 m are comparable to observations from the subtropical gyres, but the temporal variability is at least a factor of 5 larger, primarily driven by short-term upwelling events and mesoscale processes. Ωarag and pH decrease rapidly with depth, such that the saturation horizon is reached already at 130 m, on average, but it occasionally shoals to as low as 30 m. No statistically significant linear trends emerge in the upper 100 m, but Ωarag and pH decrease, on average, at rates of -0.009±0.006 yr-1 and -0.004±0.003 yr-1 in the 100-250 m depth range. These are somewhat larger, but not statistically different from the expected trends based on the recent increase in atmospheric CO2. About half of the variability in the deseasonalized data can be explained by the El Niño Southern Oscillation, with warm phases (El Niño) being associated with above normal pH and Ωarag. The observed variability and trend in Ωarag and pH is well captured by a multiple linear regression model on the basis of a small number of readily observable independent variables. This permits the estimation of these variables for related sites in the region.

  7. Tuberculosis in Mexico and the USA, Comparison of Trends Over Time 1990-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza-Damián, Fabiola; Garduño-Alanís, Adriana; Ayón-Garibaldo, Salvador

    2015-01-01

    Background The aim was to compare tuberculosis trends in Mexico and United States and to evaluate Mexican diagnostic methods and contact investigation. Methods Retrospective comparative study of tuberculosis cases and incidence rates between both countries (1990-2010). Diagnostic methods and contact investigations were also evaluated for Mexico. Estimates were obtained from official websites. Results In Mexico, no clear trend was found over time for cases. Pulmonary (PTB) and all forms of tuberculosis (AFTB) incidence decreased 2.0% annually. There was a negative correlation between the mean contacts examined per case and AFTB incidence (r2=-0.44, p=0.01) with a 33% reduction in AFTB incidence. In United States, PTB and AFTB cases have been decreasing 6.0% and 5.6% annually, respectively. The incidence decreased 7.3% and 6.8%, respectively. Conclusion The incidence of tuberculosis in Mexico is decreasing slightly over time at 2% annually. In the United States, cases and incidence rates have been decreasing at a higher rate (5% to 7% annually). The inverse association between number of contacts examined per state and incidence rates in Mexico underscore the importance of reinforcing and improving contact investigations with the likely translation of a decrease of TB incidence at a higher rate. PMID:26175779

  8. Time trends in fish populations in metropolitan France: insights from national monitoring data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulet, N; Beaulaton, L; Dembski, S

    2011-12-01

    Using the electrofishing database of the French National Agency for Water and Aquatic Environment (Onema), the time trends of 48 freshwater fish taxa at 590 sites monitored for at least 8 years from 1990 to 2009 were investigated. The results demonstrated that species richness increased steadily from the beginning of the monitoring period. This is congruent with the finding that the number of species displaying a significant increase in spatial distribution or abundance was greater than those showing a significant decrease. Some species, however, had declined both in occurrence and abundance, e.g. tench Tinca tinca, common bream Abramis brama, brown trout Salmo trutta and European eel Anguilla anguilla. The species showing the most spectacular colonization were non-native, e.g. topmouth gudgeon Pseudorasbora parva, wels catfish Silurus glanis and asp Aspius aspius. The time trends in population density were related to the maximal body size, habitat requirement, occurrence and abundance and the status (i.e. native or exotic) but not to the spawning temperature.

  9. Breast cancer screening in Italy: evaluating key performance indicators for time trends and activity volumes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giordano, Livia; Castagno, Roberta; Giorgi, Daniela; Piccinelli, Cristiano; Ventura, Leonardo; Segnan, Nereo; Zappa, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Together with the National centre for screening monitoring (ONS), GISMa supports annual collection of data on national breast screening activities. Aggregated data on implementation and performance are gathered through a standardized form to calculate process and impact indicators. Analyzed data belong to 153 local programmes in the period 2006-2011 (2006-2012 for participation rate only). During the whole period, Italian crude participation rate exceeded GISMa's acceptable standard (50%), even though a higher participation in northern and central Italy compared to southern Italy and Islands was observed. Time trend analysis of diagnostic indicators confirmed in 2011 an adequate quality of breast screening performance, especially at subsequent screening. Recall rate at initial screening did not reach the acceptable standard (performance was achieved at subsequent screening. The same trend was followed by the overall detection rate and positive predictive value. They both showed a progressive reduction (from 6.2‰ in 2006 to 4.5‰ in 2011 for DR and from 8.0% in 2006 to 5.2% in 2011 for PPV, respectively) at initial screening and a good, stable trend at subsequent screening. Activity volume analysis shows that in programmes with greater activity (test/year ≥10,000) RR at both initial and subsequent screening has a better performance. This is also true for DR and PPV where programmes with high volumes of activity do better, especially when compared with those that interpret fewer than 5,000 mammograms per year. In spite of a few limits, these results are reassuring, and they reward the efforts made by screening professionals. It is therefore important to continue to monitor screening indicators and suggest, test, and evaluate new strategies for continuous improvement.

  10. Simulation of Change Trend of Drought in Shaanxi Province in Future Based on PRECIS Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    [Objective] The aim was to predict the change trend of drought in Shaanxi Province in future. [Method] Based on the regional climate model PRECIS from Hadley Climate Center, British Meteorological Bureau, taking precipitation anomaly percentage as assessment index, the change trend of drought in Shaanxi Province in reference years (1971-1990) was simulated, and the change trend of drought in Shaanxi Province from 2071 to 2100 was predicted. [Result] The simulated value of drought frequency in reference year...

  11. Time trend and clinical pattern of extrapulmonary tuberculosis in Serbia, 1993-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pešut Dragica P.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. Increased incidence of extrapulmonary tuberculosis (XPTB is reported worldwide. Serbia is a country in socio-economic transition period with lowmiddle HIV prevalence and intermediate-to-low tuberculosis (TB incidence rate, 100% directly observed treatment (DOT coverage, and mandatory BCG vaccination at birth. The aim of the study was to examine the incidence trend and clinical features of XPTB in Serbia during a 15-year period. Methods. This retrospective observational study included XPTB cases diagnosed in the period between 1st January 1993 and 31st Decembre 2007, according to the reports of the National Referral Institute of Lung Diseases and Tuberculosis in Belgrade and Central Tuberculosis Register. Population estimates with extrapolations were based on 1991 and 2002 census data. Results. While the overall TB incidence rate showed a slight, not significant decreasing trend (p = 0.535, a significant increase was found for XPTB (y = 1.7996 + 0.089x; R2 = 0.4141; p = 0.01. A total of 2,858 XPTB cases (newly diagnosed and 10% relapses gave an average age specific incidence rate of 2.51/100,000 population (95% confidence interval, SD = 0.6182 with 8.9% annual increase. The male-to-female ratio was 0.54. Lymph nodes were most frequently affected site (48.5% followed by genitourinary (20.5%, pleural (12%, and osseo-arthicular (10.3% TB. Treatment outcome was successful in 88.29% of patients (cured and completed, 3.64% died, 5.18% interrupted, 0.57% displaced, and 2.3% unknown. Conclusion. Increasing trend of XPTB incidence rate may be a result of increased morbidity due to still present risk factors, possible higher detection rate in Serbia and better notification. A high coverage of newborns with BCG vaccination at birth might contribute to a decreased number and rare XPTB cases in children.

  12. Time trends in socioeconomic inequalities in stunting prevalence: analyses of repeated national surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Restrepo-Méndez, María Clara; Barros, Aluísio JD; Black, Robert E; Victora, Cesar G

    2016-01-01

    Objective Much is known about national trends in child undernutrition, but there is little information on how socioeconomic inequalities are evolving over time. We aimed to assess socioeconomic inequalities in stunting prevalence over time. Setting Nationally representative household surveys from 25 low and middle income countries. Design We selected nationally representative surveys carried out since the mid-1990s for which information was available on asset indices and on child anthropometry. We identified twenty-five countries which had at least two surveys over an interval of 10 or more years, totaling 87 surveys. Stunting prevalence was calculated according to wealth quintiles. Absolute and relative inequalities were calculated, and time trends were obtained by regression. Results National prevalence declined significantly in 22 of the 25 countries. In 18 out of 25 countries, relative reductions among the rich than among the poor. Overall, there was no indication that inequalities improved. Striking examples are Nepal, with a 17·0 percent points decline in stunting per decade, but where inequalities increased sharply, and Brazil where stunting fell by 6·7 percent points and inequalities were all but eliminated. Conclusions Global progress in reducing stunting has not been accompanied by improved equity, but countries varied markedly in how successful they were in reducing prevalence among the poorest children. It is important to document how some countries were able to reduce inequalities, so that these lessons can be used to foster global progress, particularly in light of the increased importance of within-country inequalities in the post-2015 agenda. PMID:25521530

  13. Time trend in hospitalised chronic lower respiratory diseases among Danish building and construction workers, 1981-2009

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tüchsen, Finn; Hannerz, Harald; Mølgaard, Ellen Fisher;

    2012-01-01

    To show trends in age-standardised hospital admission ratios (SHR) for chronic lower respiratory diseases, estimated for Danish construction workers over three time periods (1981-1990, 1991-2000, 2001-2009).......To show trends in age-standardised hospital admission ratios (SHR) for chronic lower respiratory diseases, estimated for Danish construction workers over three time periods (1981-1990, 1991-2000, 2001-2009)....

  14. Evaluating the time trends in prevalence of exomphalos in 14 cities of Liaoning province, 2006 to 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Ting-Ting; Wu, Qi-Jun; Chen, Yan-Ling; Jiang, Cheng-Zhi; Li, Jing; Li, Li-Li; Liu, Cai-Xia; Li, Da; Zhou, Chen; Huang, Yan-Hong

    2016-01-01

    To evaluate time trends of exomphalos prevalence using a large population-based study with cases identified by the Liaoning Birth Defects Registry including 14 cities over the course of a 10-year period. Exomphalos prevalence, percent change, annual percent change (APC), and contribution rates of each city were calculated. Additionally, epidemiological characteristics of this malformation were described. We observed 516 cases of exomphalos among 3,248,954 live births. Birth prevalence of exomphalos was 1.59 per 10,000 live births with non-significant change during the observational period (APC = −1.19%, P = 0.48). However, significantly decreasing trends were noticed in three cities: Fushun (APC = −9.15%, P = 0.03), Benxi (APC = −11.49%, P = 0.05), and Yingkou (APC = −16.47%, P = 0.04), contributing 62.77% of the decreasing trend of overall prevalence. The mean maternal age, gestational age, and birth weight was 28.4 years (standard deviation [SD], 6.1 years), 25.6 weeks (SD, 8.6 weeks), and 1236.2 gram (SD, 1164.4 gram). For time of diagnosis, 79.8% (n = 412) cases were diagnosed during pregnancy. In summary, the prevalence of exomphalos in Liaoning province did not change remarkably during 2006 to 2015. Future studies are warranted to investigate the risk factors and create prevention strategies for this disease. PMID:27604427

  15. Interfractional trend analysis of dose differences based on 2D transit portal dosimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persoon, L. C. G. G.; Nijsten, S. M. J. J. G.; Wilbrink, F. J.; Podesta, M.; Snaith, J. A. D.; Lustberg, T.; van Elmpt, W. J. C.; van Gils, F.; Verhaegen, F.

    2012-10-01

    Dose delivery of a radiotherapy treatment can be influenced by a number of factors. It has been demonstrated that the electronic portal imaging device (EPID) is valuable for transit portal dosimetry verification. Patient related dose differences can emerge at any time during treatment and can be categorized in two types: (1) systematic—appearing repeatedly, (2) random—appearing sporadically during treatment. The aim of this study is to investigate how systematic and random information appears in 2D transit dose distributions measured in the EPID plane over the entire course of a treatment and how this information can be used to examine interfractional trends, building toward a methodology to support adaptive radiotherapy. To create a trend overview of the interfractional changes in transit dose, the predicted portal dose for the different beams is compared to a measured portal dose using a γ evaluation. For each beam of the delivered fraction, information is extracted from the γ images to differentiate systematic from random dose delivery errors. From the systematic differences of a fraction for a projected anatomical structures, several metrics are extracted like percentage pixels with |γ| > 1. We demonstrate for four example cases the trends and dose difference causes which can be detected with this method. Two sample prostate cases show the occurrence of a random and systematic difference and identify the organ that causes the difference. In a lung cancer case a trend is shown of a rapidly diminishing atelectasis (lung fluid) during the course of treatment, which was detected with this trend analysis method. The final example is a breast cancer case where we show the influence of set-up differences on the 2D transit dose. A method is presented based on 2D portal transit dosimetry to record dose changes throughout the course of treatment, and to allow trend analysis of dose discrepancies. We show in example cases that this method can identify the causes of

  16. Measuring trends in performance across time: providing information to cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitch, Margaret I; McAndrew, Alison; Harth, Tamara

    2013-01-01

    Providing relevant, up-to-date information is identified as a quality standard of cancer care. Cancer programs need to be able to evaluate whether they are meeting the standard and to monitor their performance on an ongoing basis. Routine collection of clearly defined data, using reliable and valid measures, provides cancer program leaders with dependable information upon which to make decisions and monitor trends in performance over time. This article describes one cancer centre's experience in using standardized data collection regarding provision of patient information. The Cancer Patient Information Importance-Satisfaction Scale has been administered routinely in an outpatient setting over eight years. The profile we create from the data assists us in making informed decisions about patient education initiatives.

  17. Regression analysis of time trends in perinatal mortality in Germany 1980-1993.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherb, H; Weigelt, E; Brüske-Hohlfeld, I

    2000-02-01

    Numerous investigations have been carried out on the possible impact of the Chernobyl accident on the prevalence of anomalies at birth and on perinatal mortality. In many cases the studies were aimed at the detection of differences of pregnancy outcome measurements between regions or time periods. Most authors conclude that there is no evidence of a detrimental physical effect on congenital anomalies or other outcomes of pregnancy following the accident. In this paper, we report on statistical analyses of time trends of perinatal mortality in Germany. Our main intention is to investigate whether perinatal mortality, as reflected in official records, was increased in 1987 as a possible effect of the Chernobyl accident. We show that, in Germany as a whole, there was a significantly elevated perinatal mortality proportion in 1987 as compared to the trend function. The increase is 4.8% (p = 0.0046) of the expected perinatal death proportion for 1987. Even more pronounced levels of 8.2% (p = 0. 0458) and 8.5% (p = 0.0702) may be found in the higher contaminated areas of the former German Democratic Republic (GDR), including West Berlin, and of Bavaria, respectively. To investigate the impact of statistical models on results, we applied three standard regression techniques. The observed significant increase in 1987 is independent of the statistical model used. Stillbirth proportions show essentially the same behavior as perinatal death proportions, but the results for all of Germany are nonsignificant due to the smaller numbers involved. Analysis of the association of stillbirth proportions with the (137)Cs deposition on a district level in Bavaria discloses a significant relationship. Our results are in contrast to those of many analyses of the health consequences of the Chernobyl accident and contradict the present radiobiologic knowledge. As we are dealing with highly aggregated data, other causes or artifacts may explain the observed effects. Hence, the findings

  18. Was everything bigger in Texas? Characterization and trends of a land-based recreational shark fishery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajemian, Matthew J.; Jose, Philip D.; Froeschke, John T.; Wildhaber, Mark L.; Stunz, Gregory W.

    2016-01-01

    Although current assessments of shark population trends involve both fishery-independent and fishery-dependent data, the latter are generally limited to commercial landings that may neglect nearshore coastal habitats. Texas has supported the longest organized land-based recreational shark fishery in the United States, yet no studies have used this “non-traditional” data source to characterize the catch composition or trends in this multidecadal fishery. We analyzed catch records from two distinct periods straddling heavy commercial exploitation of sharks in the Gulf of Mexico (historical period = 1973–1986; modern period = 2008–2015) to highlight and make available the current status and historical trends in Texas’ land-based shark fishery. Catch records describing large coastal species (>1,800 mm stretched total length [STL]) were examined using multivariate techniques to assess catch seasonality and potential temporal shifts in species composition. These fishery-dependent data revealed consistent seasonality that was independent of the data set examined, although distinct shark assemblages were evident between the two periods. Similarity percentage analysis suggested decreased contributions of Lemon Shark Negaprion brevirostris over time and a general shift toward the dominance of Bull Shark Carcharhinus leucas and Blacktip Shark C. limbatus. Comparisons of mean STL for species captured in historical and modern periods further identified significant decreases for both Bull Sharks and Lemon Sharks. Size structure analysis showed a distinct paucity of landed individuals over 2,000 mm STL in recent years. Although inherent biases in reporting and potential gear-related inconsistencies undoubtedly influenced this fishery-dependent data set, the patterns in our findings documented potential declines in the size and occurrence of select large coastal shark species off Texas, consistent with declines reported in the Gulf of Mexico. Future management efforts

  19. Time trends and risk factors for diabetes mellitus in cats presented to veterinary teaching hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prahl, Annalisa; Guptill, Lynn; Glickman, Nita W; Tetrick, Mark; Glickman, Larry T

    2007-10-01

    Veterinary Medical Data Base records of cats with diabetes mellitus (DM) from 1970 through 1999 were reviewed to identify trends in hospital prevalence of DM and potential host risk factors. Hospital prevalence increased from eight cases per 10,000 in 1970 to 124 per 10,000 in 1999 (P < 0.001). Case fatality percent at first visit decreased from 40% to 10% (P < 0.001). Hospital prevalence increased in all age groups (P < 0.002). There was no apparent seasonal pattern in hospital prevalence. Significant risk factors included male gender, increasing age for both genders (P < 0.001), increasing weight for males (P < 0.001), and mixed vs pure breed for females (P = 0.006).

  20. Nutritional status of patients with alcoholic cirrhosis undergoing liver transplantation: time trends and impact on survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singal, Ashwani K; Kamath, Patrick S; Francisco Ziller, Nickie; DiCecco, Sara; Shoreibah, M; Kremers, Walter; Charlton, Michael R; Heimbach, Julie K; Watt, Kymberly D; Shah, Vijay H

    2013-08-01

    Alcoholic cirrhotics evaluated for liver transplantation are frequently malnourished or obese. We analyzed alcoholic cirrhotics undergoing transplantation to examine time trends of nutrition/weight, transplant outcome, and effects of concomitant hepatitis C virus (HCV) and/or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Nutrition and transplant outcomes were reviewed for alcoholic cirrhosis with/without HCV/HCC. Malnutrition was defined by subjective global assessment. Body mass index (BMI) classified obesity. A total of 261 patients receiving transplants were separated (1988-2000, 2001-2006, and 2007-2011) to generate similar size cohorts. Mean BMI for the whole cohort was 28 ± 6 with 68% classified as overweight/obese. Mean BMI did not vary among cohorts and was not affected by HCV/HCC. While prevalence of malnutrition did not vary among cohorts, it was lower in patients with HCV/HCC (P graft/patient survival was 90% and not impacted by time period, HCV/HCC, or malnutrition after adjusting for demographics and model end-stage liver disease (MELD). Alcoholic cirrhotics undergoing transplantation are malnourished yet frequently overweight/obese. Among patients selected for transplantation, 1-year post-transplant graft/patient survival is excellent, have not changed over time, and do not vary by nutrition/BMI. Our findings support feasibility of liver transplantation for alcoholic cirrhotics with obesity and malnutrition.

  1. Historical time trends in red blood cell usage in the Netherlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Hoeven LR

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Loan R van Hoeven,1,2 Maria MW Koopman,3 Hendrik Koffijberg,4 Kit CB Roes,1 Mart P Janssen1,2 1Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, 2Transfusion Technology Assessment Department, Sanquin Research, 3Department of Transfusion Medicine, Sanquin Blood Bank, Amsterdam, 4Department of Health Technology and Services Research, MIRA Institute for Biomedical Technology and Technical Medicine, University of Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands Background: While the number of hospitalized patients in Dutch hospitals has increased since 1997, the demand for red blood cell units (RBCs has simultaneously decreased. This implies a dramatic change in transfusion practice toward fewer blood transfusions on average per patient.Objectives: In order to explain the RBC reduction, different patient groups (surgical, medical, obstetrical, and specific age groups were studied retrospectively in relation to RBC use. In addition, the use of combinations of RBCs, fresh frozen plasma, and platelets during a transfusion episode was examined for trends over time.Materials and methods: Data from the PROTON database, containing information on all transfusions in twelve Dutch hospitals in the period 1996–2005, including corresponding patient data (age, diagnosis, treatment, and hospitalizations and blood unit data (type, amount, and date were analyzed.Results: The proportion of RBCs used for surgical patients declined from 50% in 1996 to 40% in 2005, whereas medical use increased from 47% to 58% (the remaining 2%–3% went to obstetrical patients. Changes were more marked in the higher age groups. Also, a trend was observed toward the use of only one or two RBCs during a transfusion episode rather than three or more. Among surgical patients who received blood, the use of combinations of blood units, as compared to RBCs only, increased from 32% to 39%.Conclusion: The results suggest a more restrictive transfusion policy

  2. The Living Planet Index: using species population time series to track trends in biodiversity

    OpenAIRE

    Loh, Jonathan; Green, Rhys E; Ricketts, Taylor; Lamoreux, John; Jenkins, Martin; Kapos, Valerie; Randers, Jorgen

    2005-01-01

    The Living Planet Index was developed to measure the changing state of the world's biodiversity over time. It uses time-series data to calculate average rates of change in a large number of populations of terrestrial, freshwater and marine vertebrate species. The dataset contains about 3000 population time series for over 1100 species. Two methods of calculating the index are outlined: the chain method and a method based on linear modelling of log-transformed data. The dataset is analysed to ...

  3. Examining time trends in the Oldowan technology at Beds I and II, Olduvai Gorge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimura, Yuki

    2002-09-01

    The lithic analysis of the Bed I and II assemblages from Olduvai Gorge reveals both static and dynamic time trends in early hominids' technology from 1.8 to 1.2 m.y.a. The Bed I Oldowan (1.87-1.75 m.y.a.) is characterized by the least effort strategy in terms of raw material exploitation and tool production. The inclusion of new raw material, chert, for toolmaking in the following Developed Oldowan A (DOA, 1.65-1.53 m.y.a.) facilitated more distinctive and variable flaking strategies depending on the kind of raw materials. The unique characters of DOA are explainable by this raw material factor, rather than technological development of hominids. The disappearance of chert in the subsequent Developed Oldowan B and Acheulian (1.53-1.2 m.y.a.) necessitated a shift in tool production strategy more similar to that of Bed I Oldowan than DOA. However, the evidence suggests that Bed II hominids might have been more skillful toolmakers, intensive tool-users, and engaged in more active transport of stone tools than the Bed I predecessors. Koobi Fora hominids maintained a more static tool-using behavior than their Olduvai counterparts due mainly to a stable supply of raw materials. They differed from Olduvai hominids in terms of less battering of cores, consistent transport behavior, and few productions of side-struck flakes, indicating a regional variation of toolmaking and using practice. However, they shared with Olduvai hominids a temporal trend toward the production of larger flakes from larger cores after 1.6 m.y.a. Increased intake of animal resources and the expansion of ranging area of Homo ergaster would have led to the development of technological organization. Technological changes in the Oldowan industry are attested at Olduvai Gorge, Koobi Fora, and Sterkfontein, suggesting that it was a pan-African synchronous phenomenon, beginning at 1.5 m.y.a.

  4. Comparison of three vertically resolved ozone data bases: climatology, trends and radiative forcings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Hassler

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate models that do not simulate changes in stratospheric ozone concentrations require ozone input fields to accurately calculate UV fluxes and stratospheric heating rates. In this study, three different global ozone time series that are available for this purpose are compared: the data set of Randel and Wu (2007 (RW07, Cionni et al. (2011 (SPARC, and Bodeker et al. (2012 (BDBP. The latter is a very recent data set, based on the comprehensive ozone measurement database described by Hassler et al. (2008. All three data sets represent multiple-linear regression fits to vertically resolved ozone observations, resulting in a patially and temporally continuous stratospheric ozone field covering at least the period from 1979 to 2005. The main difference between the data sets result from using different observations and including different basis functions for the regression model fits. These three regression-based data sets are compared against observations from ozonesondes and satellites to compare how the data sets represent concentrations, trends, and interannual variability. In the Southern Hemisphere polar region, RW07 and SPARC underestimate the ozone depletion in spring as seen in ozonesonde measurements. A piecewise linear trend regression is performed to estimate the 1979–1996 ozone decrease globally, covering a period of extreme depletion in most regions. BDBP seems to overestimate Arctic and tropical ozone loss over this period somewhat relative to the available measurements, whereas these appear to be underestimated in RW07 and SPARC. In most regions, the three data sets yield ozone values that are within the range of the different observations that serve as input to the regressions. However, the differences among the three suggest that there are large uncertainties in ozone trends. These result in differences of almost a factor of four in radiative forcing, which is important for the resulting climate changes.

  5. Temporal trends in non-occupational sedentary behaviours from Australian Time Use Surveys 1992, 1997 and 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chau Josephine Y

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Current epidemiological data highlight the potential detrimental associations between sedentary behaviours and health outcomes, yet little is known about temporal trends in adult sedentary time. This study used time use data to examine population trends in sedentary behaviours in non-occupational domains and more specifically during leisure time. Methods We conducted secondary analysis of population representative data from the Australian Time Use Surveys 1992, 1997 and 2006 involving respondents aged 20 years and over with completed time use diaries for two days. Weighted samples for each survey year were: n = 5851 (1992, n = 6419 (1997 and n = 5505 (2006. We recoded all primary activities by domain (sleep, occupational, transport, leisure, household, education and intensity (sedentary, light, moderate. Adjusted multiple linear regressions tested for differences in time spent in non-occupational sedentary behaviours in 1992 and 1997 with 2006 as the reference year. Results Total non-occupational sedentary time was slightly lower in 1997 than in 2006 (mean = 894 min/2d and 906 min/2d, respectively; B = −11.2; 95%CI: -21.5, -0.9. Compared with 2006, less time was spent in 1997 in sedentary transport (B-6.7; 95%CI: -10.4, -3.0 and sedentary education (B = −6.3; 95%CI: -10.5, -2.2 while household and leisure sedentary time remained stable. Time engaged in different types of leisure-time sedentary activities changed between 1997 and 2006: leisure-time computer use increased (B = −26.7; 95%CI: -29.5, -23.8, while other leisure-time sedentary behaviours (e.g., reading, listening to music, hobbies and crafts showed small concurrent reductions. In 1992, leisure screen time was lower than in 2006: TV-viewing (B = −24.2; 95%CI: -31.2, -17.2, computer use (B = −35.3; 95%CI: -37.7, -32.8. In 2006, 90 % of leisure time was spent sedentary, of which 53 % was screen time. Conclusions Non

  6. Time trends and changes in the distribution of malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon Region, 2004-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isac da SF Lima

    Full Text Available Recent efforts to reduce malaria incidence have had some successes. Nevertheless, malaria persists as a significant public health problem in the Brazilian Amazon. The objective of this study was to describe changes in malaria case characteristics and to identify trends in malaria incidence in the Brazilian Amazon. This study used data from the Malaria Epidemiological Surveillance and Case Notification Information System from 2004 to 2013. The annual parasite incidence (API was calculated and joinpoint regression was used to assess the trends in API over time. There was a sharp increase in API in the state of Acre, followed by two periods of decrease. Pará also presented inconsistent decreases over the study period. Amapá, Amazonas, Rondônia, and Roraima showed statistically significant decreases over the period. The sharpest decrease occurred in Rondônia, with a reduction of 21.7% in the average annual percent change (AAPC (AAPC: -21.7%; 95% confidence interval: -25.4%, -17.8%; p < 0.05. This panorama of malaria incidence highlights the importance of integrating evidence-based malaria surveillance and control. Malaria is highly preventable, and eliminating its transmission should be a goal in coming decades.

  7. New gridded daily climatology of Finland: Permutation-based uncertainty estimates and temporal trends in climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aalto, Juha; Pirinen, Pentti; Jylhä, Kirsti

    2016-04-01

    Long-term time series of key climate variables with a relevant spatiotemporal resolution are essential for environmental science. Moreover, such spatially continuous data, based on weather observations, are commonly used in, e.g., downscaling and bias correcting of climate model simulations. Here we conducted a comprehensive spatial interpolation scheme where seven climate variables (daily mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures, daily precipitation sum, relative humidity, sea level air pressure, and snow depth) were interpolated over Finland at the spatial resolution of 10 × 10 km2. More precisely, (1) we produced daily gridded time series (FMI_ClimGrid) of the variables covering the period of 1961-2010, with a special focus on evaluation and permutation-based uncertainty estimates, and (2) we investigated temporal trends in the climate variables based on the gridded data. National climate station observations were supplemented by records from the surrounding countries, and kriging interpolation was applied to account for topography and water bodies. For daily precipitation sum and snow depth, a two-stage interpolation with a binary classifier was deployed for an accurate delineation of areas with no precipitation or snow. A robust cross-validation indicated a good agreement between the observed and interpolated values especially for the temperature variables and air pressure, although the effect of seasons was evident. Permutation-based analysis suggested increased uncertainty toward northern areas, thus identifying regions with suboptimal station density. Finally, several variables had a statistically significant trend indicating a clear but locally varying signal of climate change during the last five decades.

  8. Coronary heart disease mortality among young adults in Scotland in relation to social inequalities:time trend study

    OpenAIRE

    O'Flaherty, Martin; Bishop, Jennifer; Redpath, Adam; McLaughlin, Terry; Murphy, David; Chalmers, James; Capewell, Simon

    2009-01-01

    Objective To examine recent trends and social inequalities in age specific coronary heart disease mortality.Design Time trend analysis using joinpoint regression.Setting Scotland, 1986-2006.Participants Men and women aged 35 years and over.Main outcome measures Age adjusted and age, sex, and deprivation specific coronary heart disease mortality.Results Persistent sixfold social differentials in coronary heart disease mortality were seen between the most deprived and the most affluent groups a...

  9. [Time trend study of firearm mortality in Argentina, 1980-2012].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spinelli, Hugo; Santoro, Adrián; Guevel, Carlos; Alazraqui, Marcio

    2015-06-01

    This work analyzes the impact of firearm mortality between 1980 and 2012 in Argentina. For this purpose a descriptive epidemiological time trend study was carried out including the following variables: sex, age group, intentionality and jurisdiction. Data was obtained from the Office of Health Statistics and Information of the Argentine Ministry of Health. A total of 87,671 deaths due to firearms were discovered, of which 85.7% occurred in men. The highest mortality rate due to firearms corresponded to the year 2002, reaching 21.2 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. The age group concentrating the largest number of deaths due to firearms was that of 20-29 years, accounting for 25.6% of all deaths. The highest adjusted rates corresponded to the years 2000-2002, with values of 10.0 to 11.6 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. This time period coincides with the institutional-economic crisis the country experienced. The province of Buenos Aires was the place of residence of 49.1% of the deceased. In the discussion, political-economic and ideological-cultural dimensions of the relations among firearms, violence, science and society are considered.

  10. Reference population for international comparisons and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery proportions in three countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Skjærven Rolv

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background International comparison and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery rates is complex. New techniques that could facilitate interpretation of such rates are needed. Methods We studied all live births and stillbirths (≥ 28 weeks gestation registered in the medical birth registers in Sweden, Denmark and Norway from 1995 through 2004. Gestational age was determined by best estimate. A reference population of pregnant women was designed using the following criteria: 1 maternal age 20–35, 2 primiparity, 3 spontaneously conceived pregnancy, 4 singleton pregnancy and 5 mother born in the respective country. National preterm delivery rate, preterm delivery rate in the reference population and rate of spontaneous preterm delivery in the reference population were calculated for each country. Results The total national preterm delivery rate ( Conclusion Reference populations can facilitate overview and thereby explanations for changing preterm delivery rates. The model also permits comparisons over time. This model may in its simplicity prove to be a valuable supplement to assessments of national preterm delivery rates for public health surveillance.

  11. The Sentiment Trend Analysis of Twitter Based on Set Pair Contact Degree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunying Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Sentiment trend of twitter users have a great influence on their friends and the crowd listened. This paper directs at the user sentiment state of twitter, the unique medium, and applies set pair analysis method for trend analysis. First, we begin with set pair contact degree, then based on set pair affective computing model to make comparison with the size relationship of same degree, difference degree, opposition degree of the emotion, to build the user sentiment trend analysis model; Secondly, we analyze the influence for the user's own sentiment trend when the value changed of difference coefficient ; thirdly, after analyze to obtain one user's sentiment orientation threshold as prerequisite for user behavior prediction. Finally, setting an example to calculate the sentiment trend of one twitter, then to get the conclusion is that the analysis of user emotion from a three-dimensional angle is more realistic than the single angle.

  12. [Lead exposure in the ceramic tile industry: time trends and current exposure levels].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candela, S; Ferri, F; Olmi, M

    1998-01-01

    There is a high density of industries for the production of ceramic tiles in the District of Scandiano (province of Reggio Emilia, Emilia Romagna region). In this area, since the beginning of 1970s, the time trend of Pb exposure in ceramic tile plants has been evaluated by means of biological monitoring (BM) data collected at the Service of Prevention and Safety in the Work Environment and its associated Toxicology Laboratory. From these data, a clear decreasing time trend of exposure levels is documented, the reduction being more evident during the seventies and in 1985-88. During the seventies BM was introduced systematically in all ceramic tile plants with the determination of delta-aminolevulinic acid in urine (ALA-U). As a consequence of the BM programme, hygienic measures for the abatement of pollution inside the plants were implemented, and a reduction, from 20.6% to 2%, of ALA-U values exceeding 10 mg/l, was observed. In 1985, the determination of lead in blood (PbB) replaced that of ALA-U in the BM programmes and highlighted the persistence of high level of exposure to Pb, which could not be outlined by means of ALA-U because of its lower sensitivity. PbB levels were 36.1 micrograms/100 ml and 25.7 micrograms/100 ml in male and female workers, respectively. These results required the implementation, within the plants, of additional hygienic measures and a significant reduction of PbB was obtained in the following three years. In 1988 PbB levels were 26.0 +/- 10.7 and 21.6 +/- 10.3 micrograms/100 ml in male and female workers, respectively. In 1993-95 Pb levels were obtained from 1328 male and 771 female workers of 56 plants, accounting for about 40% of the total number of workers in the ceramic industry, in the zones of Sassuolo and Scandiano. Exposure levels are not different from those observed in the preceding years, with PbB levels of 25.3 +/- 11.1 and 19.1 +/- 9.2 micrograms/100 ml in male and female workers, respectively.

  13. Time trends in health inequalities due to care in the context of the Spanish Dependency Law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Salvador-Piedrafita

    2017-01-01

    Conclusions: Between 2006 and 2012, trends in health inequalities attributable to informal care show different trends according to gender and share of responsibility. It is necessary to redesign and implement policies to reduce inequalities that take into account the most affected groups, such as women lone carers. Policies that strengthen the fair social distribution of care should also be adopted.

  14. Whims of the Winds of Time? Emerging Trends in Biodiversity Conservation and Protected Area Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.E. Büscher (Bram); W. Whande (Webster)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractThis article reviews narratives and trends in biodiversity conservation and protected area (PA) management and examines contestations within and among them in the light of developments within the global political economy. Its argument starts with the assumption that trends in biodiversit

  15. Contrasting time trends of organic contaminants in Antarctic pelagic and benthic food webs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brink, van den N.W.; Riddle, M.J.; Heuvel-Greve, van den M.J.; Franeker, van J.A.

    2011-01-01

    We demonstrate that pelagic Antarctic seabirds show significant decreases in concentrations of some persistent organic pollutants. Trends in Adélie penguins and Southern fulmars fit in a general pattern revealed by a broad literature review. Downward trends are also visible in pelagic fish, contrast

  16. NASA trend analysis procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-01-01

    This publication is primarily intended for use by NASA personnel engaged in managing or implementing trend analysis programs. 'Trend analysis' refers to the observation of current activity in the context of the past in order to infer the expected level of future activity. NASA trend analysis was divided into 5 categories: problem, performance, supportability, programmatic, and reliability. Problem trend analysis uncovers multiple occurrences of historical hardware or software problems or failures in order to focus future corrective action. Performance trend analysis observes changing levels of real-time or historical flight vehicle performance parameters such as temperatures, pressures, and flow rates as compared to specification or 'safe' limits. Supportability trend analysis assesses the adequacy of the spaceflight logistics system; example indicators are repair-turn-around time and parts stockage levels. Programmatic trend analysis uses quantitative indicators to evaluate the 'health' of NASA programs of all types. Finally, reliability trend analysis attempts to evaluate the growth of system reliability based on a decreasing rate of occurrence of hardware problems over time. Procedures for conducting all five types of trend analysis are provided in this publication, prepared through the joint efforts of the NASA Trend Analysis Working Group.

  17. A sensitivity analysis of secular trends in risk factors and mortality based on cohort studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prescott, E; Andersen, P K; Osler, M;

    1999-01-01

    Because of a "healthy responder effect," secular trends in mortality based on cohort studies may be biased if based on responders only. Because responders are selected on the basis of their health at study entry, subjects just entering a study are not comparable with subjects who have been...... secular trend in mortality. By applying different assumptions regarding smoking habits among nonresponders, we explored the effect of the assumptions on the adjusted secular trend in mortality. We conclude that secular trends in mortality based on responders in a cohort study are likely to be biased...... biased. In a sensitivity analysis, the observed person-years of nonresponders were distributed among six categories of persons with respect to smoking behavior (never-smokers; ex-smokers; noninhaling current smokers; and current smokers of 1-14, 15-24, and > or =25 gm tobacco per day) according to preset...

  18. Modelling BSE trend over time in Europe, a risk assessment perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Christian; Sala, Carole; Ru, Giuseppe; de Koeijer, Aline; Sheridan, Hazel; Saegerman, Claude; Selhorst, Thomas; Arnold, Mark; Polak, Miroslaw P; Calavas, Didier

    2010-06-01

    BSE is a zoonotic disease that caused the emergence of variant Creuzfeldt-Jakob disease in the mid 1990s. The trend of the BSE epidemic in seven European countries was assessed and compared, using Age-Period-Cohort and Reproduction Ratio modelling applied to surveillance data 2001-2007. A strong decline in BSE risk was observed for all countries that applied control measures during the 1990s, starting at different points in time in the different countries. Results were compared with the type and date of the BSE control measures implemented between 1990 and 2001 in each country. Results show that a ban on the feeding of meat and bone meal (MBM) to cattle alone was not sufficient to eliminate BSE. The fading out of the epidemic started shortly after the complementary measures targeted at controlling the risk in MBM. Given the long incubation period, it is still too early to estimate the additional effect of the ban on the feeding of animal protein to all farm animals that started in 2001. These results provide new insights in the risk assessment of BSE for cattle and Humans, which will especially be useful in the context of possible relaxing BSE surveillance and control measures.

  19. An Effective Time Series Analysis for Stock Trend Prediction Using ARIMA Model for Nifty Midcap-50

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B.Uma Devi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The data mining and its tool has played a vital role in exploring the data from different ware houses. Using data mining tools and analytical technologies we do a quantifiable amount of research to explore new approach for the investment decisions .The market with huge volume of investor with good enough knowledge and have a prediction as well as control over their investments. The stock market some time fails to attract new investor. The reason states that non-aware and also people don’t want to come forward to fall in to the risk. An approach with adequate expertise is designed to help investors to ascertain veiled patterns from the historic data that have feasible predictive ability in their investment decisions. In this paper the NSE – Nifty Midcap50 companies among them top 4 companies having max Midcap value has been selected for analysis. The historical data has a significant role in, helping the investing people to get an overview about the market behavior during the past decade. The stock data for the past five years has been collected and trained using ARIMA model with different parameters. The test criterions like Akaike Information Criterion Bayesian Information Criterion (AICBIC are applied to predict the accuracy of the model. The performance of the trained model is analyzed and it also tested to find the trend and the market behavior for future forecast.

  20. Meteorological hazard assessment based on trends and abrupt changes in rainfall characteristics on the Korean peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Jang Hyun; Chung, Eun-Sung; Kim, Yeonjoo; Lee, Bo-Ram

    2017-01-01

    This study presents a statistical approach for assessing meteorological hazards based on trends and abrupt changes in precipitation characteristics. Daily rainfall data from 64 stations in South Korea (SK) and 27 stations in North Korea (NK) were used to identify temporal patterns in the rainfall characteristics of both regions using seven rainfall indices, such as the total annual rainfall and annual number of wet days. This study suggests the use of three steps in identifying meteorological hazards based on two statistical analyses. In step 1, we conducted a trend analysis of a 10-year moving average of the rainfall index using the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test. Most stations (65.6 %) in SK exhibit clear increasing trends in five indices, whereas far fewer have data indicating any trends in five of the indices in NK (25.9 %). In step 2, abrupt changes in all rainfall indices were identified using a Bayesian Change Point (BCP) approach. The results contradict those from the MK trend analysis. The proportion of stations in NK where trends were identified is much higher than that in SK. In step 3, the results from the two previous steps were integrated to identify the meteorological hazards based on the identified trend and change point. The BCP approach can be used to identify meteorological hazards that MK cannot, as the former approach focuses on the change point during the entire period. As a result, meteorological stability at the sites of weather stations can be identified, and then the meteorological hazards across the entire Korean peninsula can be spatially interpolated. Although SK and NK are located on the same peninsula, distinct differences in the trends were observed.

  1. Time trends of cancer mortality among elderly in Italy, 1970–2008: an observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bidoli Ettore

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aging of the Italian population will unavoidably lead to a growing number of persons diagnosed and living with cancer. A comprehensive description of the burden of cancer mortality among Italian elderly (65-84 years of age in the last four decades has not been carried out yet. Cancer mortality rates were used to describe time trends between 1970-2008. Methods Mortality counts, provided by the Italian National Institute of Statistics, were grouped according to data availability: in quinquennia from 1970-74 through 1995-99, and in 2000-03 and 2006-08 groups. Age-standardized rates (world population were computed by calendar periods while annual percent changes (APCs were computed for elderly and middle aged (35-64 years people for the period 1995-2008. Results The number of cancer deaths in elderly nearly doubled between 1970-74 (31,400 deaths/year in men, and 24,000 in women and 2006-08 (63,000 deaths/year in men, and 42,000 in women. Overall cancer mortality rates peaked during the quinquennia 1985-89 and 1990-94 (about 1,500/100,000 in men and 680 in women and declined thereafter. Throughout 1995-2008 cancer mortality rates decreased by -1.6%/year in men and -0.9%/year in women. These decreases were mainly driven by cancers of the stomach, bladder, prostate, and lung (APC = -3.3%, -2.7%, -2.5%, -2.2%, respectively in men, and by cancers of the stomach, bladder, and breast (APC = -3.5%, -1.9%, -1.1%, respectively in women. Conversely, increases in mortality rates between 1995 and 2008 were recorded for lung cancer (APC = +0.6% in women, cutaneous melanoma (APC = +1.7% in men, and pancreatic cancer (APC = +0.6% in men and +0.9% in women. Conclusions Overall favorable trends in cancer mortality were observed among Italian elderly between 1995 and 2008. Early diagnosis, improved efficacy of anti-cancer treatments and management of comorbidities are the most likely explanations of these positive

  2. Trends in Statin Use in Seniors 1999 to 2013: Time Series Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura V Minard

    Full Text Available To examine HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor (statin drug dispensing patterns to Nova Scotia Seniors' Pharmacare program (NSSPP beneficiaries over a 14-year period in response to: 1 rosuvastatin market entry in 2003, 2 JUPITER trial publication in 2008, and 3 generic atorvastatin availability in 2010.All NSSPP beneficiaries who redeemed at least one prescription for a statin from April 1, 1999 to March 31, 2013 were included. Aggregated, anonymous monthly prescription counts were extracted by the Nova Scotia Department of Health and Wellness (Nova Scotia, Canada and changes in dispensing patterns of statins were measured. Data were analyzed using descriptive analyses and interrupted time series methods.The percentage of NSSPP beneficiaries dispensed any statin increased from 5.3% in April 1999 to 20.7% in March 2013. In 1999, most NSSPP beneficiaries were dispensed either simvastatin (29.5% or atorvastatin (28.7%. When rosuvastatin was added to the NSSPP Formulary in August 2003, prescriptions dispensed for simvastatin, lovastatin, pravastatin, and fluvastatin declined significantly (slope change, -0.0027; 95% confidence interval (CI, (-0.0046, -0.0009. This significant decline continued following the publication of JUPITER (level change, -0.1974; 95% CI, (-0.2991, -0.0957 and the availability of generic atorvastatin (level change, -0.2436; 95% CI, (-0.3314, -0.1558. Atorvastatin was not significantly affected by any of the three interventions, although it maintained an overall decreasing trend. Only upon the availability of generic atorvastatin did the upward trend in rosuvastatin use decrease significantly (slope change, -0.0010, 95% CI, (-0.0015, -0.0005.The type and rate of statins dispensed to NSSPP beneficiaries changed from 1999 to 2013 in response to the availability of new agents and publication of the JUPITER trial. The overall proportion of NSSPP beneficiaries dispensed a statin increased approximately 4-fold during the study period. In

  3. Groundwater level and nitrate concentration trends on Mountain Home Air Force Base, southwestern Idaho

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Marshall L.

    2014-01-01

    Mountain Home Air Force Base in southwestern Idaho draws most of its drinking water from the regional aquifer. The base is located within the State of Idaho's Mountain Home Groundwater Management Area and is adjacent to the State's Cinder Cone Butte Critical Groundwater Area. Both areas were established by the Idaho Department of Water Resources in the early 1980s because of declining water levels in the regional aquifer. The base also is listed by the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality as a nitrate priority area. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Air Force, began monitoring wells on the base in 1985, and currently monitors 25 wells for water levels and 17 wells for water quality, primarily nutrients. This report provides a summary of water-level and nitrate concentration data collected primarily between 2001 and 2013 and examines trends in those data. A Regional Kendall Test was run to combine results from all wells to determine an overall regional trend in water level. Groundwater levels declined at an average rate of about 1.08 feet per year. Nitrate concentration trends show that 3 wells (18 percent) are increasing in nitrate concentration trend, 3 wells (18 percent) show a decreasing nitrate concentration trend, and 11 wells (64 percent) show no nitrate concentration trend. Six wells (35 percent) currently exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's maximum contaminant limit of 10 milligrams per liter for nitrate (nitrite plus nitrate, measured as nitrogen).

  4. Pulmonary tuberculosis space-time clustering and spatial variation in temporal trends in Portugal, 2000-2010: an updated analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Areias, C; Briz, T; Nunes, C

    2015-11-01

    Portugal, a medium- to low-level endemic country (21·6 cases/100 000 population in 2012), has one of the highest European Union tuberculosis (TB) incidences. Although incidence is declining progressively, the country's heterogeneity in both regional endemics and their evolution suggests the importance of a better understanding of subnational epidemiology to customize TB control efforts. We aimed to update knowledge on municipality-years pulmonary TB incidence clustering, identify areas with different time trends, and show the potential of combining complementary clustering methods in control of infectious diseases. We used national surveillance municipality-level data (mainland Portugal, 2000-2010). Space-time clustering and spatial variation in temporal trends methods were applied. Space-time critical clusters identified (P < 0·001) were still the Lisbon and Oporto regions. The global incidence declined at a 5·81% mean annual percentage change, with high space-time heterogeneity and distinct time trend clusters (P < 0·001). Municipalities with incidences declining more rapidly belonged to critical areas. In particular, the Oporto trend cluster had a consistent -8·98% mean annual percentage change. Large space-time heterogeneities were identified, with critical incidences in the greater Lisbon and Oporto regions, but declining more rapidly in these regions. Oporto showed a consistent, steeper decrease and could represent a good example of local control strategy. Combining results from these approaches gives promise for prospects for infectious disease control and the design of more effective, focused interventions.

  5. Time Trends in Total Ankle Arthroplasty in the U.S.: A Study of the Nationwide Inpatient Sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Jasvinder A.; Ramachandaran, Rekha

    2014-01-01

    Objective To assess the time-trends in utilization, clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients undergoing total ankle arthroplasty (TAA) in the U.S. Methods We used the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) data from 1998 to 2010 to examine time-trends in the utilization rates of TAA. We used the Cochran Armitage test for trend to assess time-trends across the years and the analysis of variance (ANOVA), Wilcoxon test or chi-squared test (as appropriate) to compare the first (1998–2000) and the last time periods (2009–10). Results TAA utilization rate increased significant from 1998 to 2010: 0.13 to 0.84 per 100,000 overall, 0.14 to 0.88 per 100,000 in females and from 0.11 to 0.81 per 100,000 in males (p0.05). Conclusions The utilization rate of TAA increased rapidly in the U.S. from 1998 to 2010, but post-arthroplasty mortality rate was stable. Underlying diagnosis and medical comorbidity changed over time and both can impact outcomes after TAA. Further studies should examine how the outcomes and complications of TAA have evolved over time. PMID:24907036

  6. Contrasting time trends of organic contaminants in Antarctic pelagic and benthic food webs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Brink, Nico W; Riddle, Martin J; van den Heuvel-Greve, Martine; van Franeker, Jan Andries

    2011-01-01

    We demonstrate that pelagic Antarctic seabirds show significant decreases in concentrations of some persistent organic pollutants. Trends in Adélie penguins and Southern fulmars fit in a general pattern revealed by a broad literature review. Downward trends are also visible in pelagic fish, contrasting sharply with steady or increasing concentrations in Antarctic benthic organisms. Transfer of contaminants between Antarctic pelagic and benthic food webs is associated with seasonal sea-ice dynamics which may influence the balance between the final receptors of contaminants under different climatic conditions. This complicates the predictability of future trends of emerging compounds in the Antarctic ecosystem, such as of the brominated compounds that we detected in Antarctic petrels. The discrepancy in trends between pelagic and benthic organisms shows that Antarctic biota are still final receptors of globally released organic contaminants and it remains questionable whether the total environmental burden of contaminants in the Antarctic ecosystem is declining.

  7. Comparison of two regression-based approaches for determining nutrient and sediment fluxes and trends in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyer, Douglas; Hirsch, Robert M.; Hyer, Kenneth

    2012-01-01

    Nutrient and sediment fluxes and changes in fluxes over time are key indicators that water resource managers can use to assess the progress being made in improving the structure and function of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. The U.S. Geological Survey collects annual nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) and sediment flux data and computes trends that describe the extent to which water-quality conditions are changing within the major Chesapeake Bay tributaries. Two regression-based approaches were compared for estimating annual nutrient and sediment fluxes and for characterizing how these annual fluxes are changing over time. The two regression models compared are the traditionally used ESTIMATOR and the newly developed Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS). The model comparison focused on answering three questions: (1) What are the differences between the functional form and construction of each model? (2) Which model produces estimates of flux with the greatest accuracy and least amount of bias? (3) How different would the historical estimates of annual flux be if WRTDS had been used instead of ESTIMATOR? One additional point of comparison between the two models is how each model determines trends in annual flux once the year-to-year variations in discharge have been determined. All comparisons were made using total nitrogen, nitrate, total phosphorus, orthophosphorus, and suspended-sediment concentration data collected at the nine U.S. Geological Survey River Input Monitoring stations located on the Susquehanna, Potomac, James, Rappahannock, Appomattox, Pamunkey, Mattaponi, Patuxent, and Choptank Rivers in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Two model characteristics that uniquely distinguish ESTIMATOR and WRTDS are the fundamental model form and the determination of model coefficients. ESTIMATOR and WRTDS both predict water-quality constituent concentration by developing a linear relation between the natural logarithm of observed constituent

  8. Future Trends in Reliability-Based Bridge Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    Future bridge management systems will be based on simple stochastic models predicting the residual strength of structural elements. The current deterministic management systems are not effective in optimizing e.g. the life cycle cost of a bridge or a system of bridges. A number of important factors...

  9. Recent Trends in Conducting School-Based Experimental Functional Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Stacy L.

    2009-01-01

    Demonstrations of school-based experimental functional analyses have received limited attention within the literature. School settings present unique practical and ethical concerns related to the implementation of experimental analyses which were originally developed within clinical settings. Recent examples have made definite contributions toward…

  10. Vegetable oil-based diesel fuels: Overview and current trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Since the energy crises of the 1970's and early 1980's, feedstocks and fuels with the potential to reduce dependence on petroleum-based energy and fuels have found increasing interest. Materials with triacylglycerols (triglycerides; esters of glycerol with fatty acids) as major components, such as ...

  11. Real Time On-line Space Research Laboratory Environment Monitoring with Off-line Trend and Prediction Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

    2006-01-01

    One of the responsibilities of the NASA Glenn Principal Investigator Microgravity Services is to support NASA sponsored investigators in the area of reduced-gravity acceleration data analysis, interpretation and the monitoring of the reduced-gravity environment on-board various carriers. With the International Space Station currently operational, a significant amount of acceleration data is being down-linked and processed on ground for both the space station onboard environment characterization (and verification) and scientific experiments. Therefore, to help principal investigator teams monitor the acceleration level on-board the International Space Station to avoid undesirable impact on their experiment, when possible, the NASA Glenn Principal Investigator Microgravity Services developed an artificial intelligence monitoring system, which detects in near real time any change in the environment susceptible to affect onboard experiments. The main objective of the monitoring system is to help research teams identify the vibratory disturbances that are active at any instant of time onboard the International Space Station that might impact the environment in which their experiment is being conducted. The monitoring system allows any space research scientist, at any location and at any time, to see the current acceleration level on-board the Space Station via the World Wide Web. From the NASA Glenn s Exploration Systems Division web site, research scientists can see in near real time the active disturbances, such as pumps, fans, compressor, crew exercise, re-boost, extra-vehicular activity, etc., and decide whether or not to continue operating or stopping (or making note of such activity for later correlation with science results) their experiments based on the g-level associated with that specific event. A dynamic graphical display accessible via the World Wide Web shows the status of all the vibratory disturbance activities with their degree of confidence as well as

  12. A method to assess seasonality of urinary tract infections based on medication sales and google trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louise Rossignol

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Despite the fact that urinary tract infection (UTI is a very frequent disease, little is known about its seasonality in the community. METHODS AND FINDINGS: To estimate seasonality of UTI using multiple time series constructed with available proxies of UTI. Eight time series based on two databases were used: sales of urinary antibacterial medications reported by a panel of pharmacy stores in France between 2000 and 2012, and search trends on the Google search engine for UTI-related terms between 2004 and 2012 in France, Germany, Italy, the USA, China, Australia and Brazil. Differences between summers and winters were statistically assessed with the Mann-Whitney test. We evaluated seasonality by applying the Harmonics Product Spectrum on Fast Fourier Transform. Seven time series out of eight displayed a significant increase in medication sales or web searches in the summer compared to the winter, ranging from 8% to 20%. The eight time series displayed a periodicity of one year. Annual increases were seen in the summer for UTI drug sales in France and Google searches in France, the USA, Germany, Italy, and China. Increases occurred in the austral summer for Google searches in Brazil and Australia. CONCLUSIONS: An annual seasonality of UTIs was evidenced in seven different countries, with peaks during the summer.

  13. HuGE Watch: tracking trends and patterns of published studies of genetic association and human genome epidemiology in near-real time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Wei; Wulf, Anja; Yesupriya, Ajay; Clyne, Melinda; Khoury, Muin Joseph; Gwinn, Marta

    2008-09-01

    HuGE Watch is a web-based application for tracking the evolution of published studies on genetic association and human genome epidemiology in near-real time. The application allows users to display temporal trends and spatial distributions as line charts and google maps, providing a quick overview of progress in the field. http://www.hugenavigator.net/HuGENavigator/startPageWatch.do

  14. Did FDA Decisionmaking Affect Anti-Psychotic Drug Prescribing in Children?: A Time-Trend Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Wang

    Full Text Available Following Food and Drug Administration (FDA approval, many drugs are prescribed for non-FDA-approved ("off-label" uses. If substantial evidence supports the efficacy and safety of off-label indications, manufacturers can pursue formal FDA approval through supplemental new drug applications (sNDAs. We evaluated the effect of FDA determinations on pediatric sNDAs for antipsychotic drugs on prescribing of these products in children.Retrospective, segmented time-series analysis using new prescription claims during 2003-2012 for three atypical antipsychotics (olanzapine, quetiapine, ziprasidone. FDA approved the sNDAs for pediatric use of olanzapine and quetiapine in December 2009, but did not approve the sNDA for pediatric use of ziprasidone.During the months before FDA approval of its pediatric sNDA, new prescriptions of olanzapine decreased for both children and adults. After FDA approval, the increase in prescribing trends was similar for both age groups (P = 0.47 for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder; P = 0.37 for other indications. Comparable decreases in use of quetiapine were observed between pediatrics and adults following FDA approval of its pediatric sNDA (P = 0.88; P = 0.63. Prescribing of ziprasidone decreased similarly for pediatric and adult patients after FDA non-approval of its pediatric sNDA (P = 0.61; P = 0.79.The FDA's sNDA determinations relating to use of antipsychotics in children did not result in changes in use that favored the approved sNDAs and disfavored the unapproved sNDA. Improved communication may help translate the agency's expert judgments to clinical practice.

  15. New Trends in Agent-Based Complex Automated Negotiations

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Minjie; Robu, Valentin; Fatima, Shaheen; Matsuo, Tokuro

    2012-01-01

    Complex Automated Negotiations represent an important, emerging area in the field of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems. Automated negotiations can be complex, since there are a lot of factors that characterize such negotiations. These factors include the number of issues, dependencies between these issues,  representation of utilities, the negotiation protocol, the number of parties in the negotiation (bilateral or multi-party), time constraints, etc. Software agents can support automation or simulation of such complex negotiations on the behalf of their owners, and can provide them with efficient bargaining strategies. To realize such a complex automated negotiation, we have to incorporate advanced Artificial Intelligence technologies includes search, CSP, graphical utility models, Bayes nets, auctions, utility graphs, predicting and learning methods. Applications could include e-commerce tools, decision-making support tools, negotiation support tools, collaboration tools, etc. This book aims to pro...

  16. Levels, fluxes and time trends of persistent organic pollutants in Lake Thun, Switzerland: Combining trace analysis and multimedia modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bogdal, Christian [Institute for Chemical and Bioengineering, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 10, CH-8093 Zuerich (Switzerland); Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Testing and Research, Uberlandstrasse 129, CH-8600 Duebendorf (Switzerland); Scheringer, Martin, E-mail: scheringer@chem.ethz.ch [Institute for Chemical and Bioengineering, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 10, CH-8093 Zuerich (Switzerland); Schmid, Peter [Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Testing and Research, Uberlandstrasse 129, CH-8600 Duebendorf (Switzerland); Blaeuenstein, Markus [Institute for Chemical and Bioengineering, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 10, CH-8093 Zuerich (Switzerland); Kohler, Martin [State Food Law Enforcement Authority, Werkhofstrasse 5, CH-4509 Solothurn (Switzerland); Hungerbuehler, Konrad [Institute for Chemical and Bioengineering, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 10, CH-8093 Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2010-08-01

    Levels, mass fluxes, and time trends of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in Lake Thun, a peri-Alpine lake, are investigated. We present measurements of PBDEs and PCBs in air, lake water, lake sediment, and tributary water. These measurements are combined with a multimedia fate model, based on site-specific environmental parameters from the lake catchment. Measured loadings of PBDEs and PCBs in air and tributaries were used to drive the model. The model satisfactorily reproduces PBDE and PCB congener patterns in water and sediment, but it tends to yield concentrations in water below the measurements and concentrations in sediment exceeding the measurements. A sensitivity analysis reveals that partitioning of PBDEs and PCBs between the aqueous dissolved phase and suspended particulate matter in the water column strongly affects the model results, in particular the concentrations in water and sediment. For lower-brominated PBDEs, approximately 70% and 30% of input into the lake stems from atmospheric deposition and from tributaries, respectively. For heavier PBDEs and all PCBs, rivers appear to deliver the major load (64-92%). Waste water effluents are of minor importance. 50-90% of the total input is buried in the permanent sediment. Sediment burial makes PBDEs and PCBs less available for recycling in the environment, and reduces concentrations in the outflowing river. If use of deca-BDE increases in the future, levels in Lake Thun will follow the same trend. If the use and resulting environmental emissions decrease, concentrations in water will rapidly decline, according to our calculations, while sediment levels will decrease at a considerably slower rate.

  17. Glyphosate in German adults - Time trend (2001 to 2015) of human exposure to a widely used herbicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conrad, André; Schröter-Kermani, Christa; Hoppe, Hans-Wolfgang; Rüther, Maria; Pieper, Silvia; Kolossa-Gehring, Marike

    2017-01-01

    The broadband herbicide glyphosate (N-[phosphonomethyl]-glycine) and its main metabolite aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA) were analyzed by GC-MS-MS in 24h-urine samples cryo-archived by the German Environmental Specimen Bank (ESB). Samples collected in 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015 were chosen for this retrospective analysis. All urine samples had been provided by 20 to 29 years old individuals living in Greifswald, a city in north-eastern Germany. Out of the 399 analyzed urine samples, 127 (=31.8%) contained glyphosate concentrations at or above the limit of quantification (LOQ) of 0.1μg/L. For AMPA this was the case for 160 (=40.1%) samples. The fraction of glyphosate levels at or above LOQ peaked in 2012 (57.5%) and 2013 (56.4%) after having discontinuously increased from 10.0% in 2001. Quantification rates were lower again in 2014 and 2015 with 32.5% and 40.0%, respectively. The overall trend for quantifiable AMPA levels was similar. Glyphosate and AMPA concentrations in urine were statistically significantly correlated (spearman rank correlation coefficient=0.506, p≤0.001). Urinary glyphosate and AMPA levels tended to be higher in males. The possible reduction in exposure since 2013 indicated by ESB data may be due to changes in glyphosate application in agricultural practice. The ESB will continue monitoring internal exposures to glyphosate and AMPA for following up the time trend, elucidating inter-individual differences, and contributing to the ongoing debate on the further regulation of glyphosate-based pesticides.

  18. Current Trends in Nanomaterial-Based Amperometric Biosensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akhtar Hayat

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The last decade has witnessed an intensive research effort in the field of electrochemical sensors, with a particular focus on the design of amperometric biosensors for diverse analytical applications. In this context, nanomaterial integration in the construction of amperometric biosensors may constitute one of the most exciting approaches. The attractive properties of nanomaterials have paved the way for the design of a wide variety of biosensors based on various electrochemical detection methods to enhance the analytical characteristics. However, most of these nanostructured materials are not explored in the design of amperometric biosensors. This review aims to provide insight into the diverse properties of nanomaterials that can be possibly explored in the construction of amperometric biosensors.

  19. Dialysis-requiring acute kidney injury in Denmark 2000-2012: time trends of incidence and prevalence of risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlson, Nicholas; Hommel, Kristine; Olesen, Jonas Bjerring

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Dialysis-requiring acute kidney injury is a severe illness associated with poor prognosis. However, information pertaining to incidence rates and prevalence of risk factors remains limited in spite of increasing focus. We evaluate time trends of incidence rates and changing patterns...

  20. Global Markets and Time-Based Competition

    OpenAIRE

    Elisa Rancati

    2005-01-01

    Time becomes the benchmark that defines a company's strategic behaviour, extensively revamping the entire company by reinterpreting the time dimension in a different, extremely dynamic context. Marketing activities always presuppose time-based competition. From a marketing perspective, oriented to analysis of the competition, time-based competition can be defined as a strategy based on immediate response to the customer's needs. In the competitive conditions of over-supply, the time dimension...

  1. Time trends in organ donation after neurologic determination of death: a cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Andreas H.; Baht, Ryan; Doig, Christopher J.

    2017-01-01

    Background: The cause of brain injury may influence the number of organs that can be procured and transplanted with donation following neurologic determination of death. We investigated whether the distribution of causes responsible for neurologic death has changed over time and, if so, whether this has had an impact on organ quality, transplantation rates and recipient outcomes. Methods: We performed a cohort study involving consecutive brain-dead organ donors in southern Alberta between 2003 and 2014. For each donor, we determined last available measures of organ injury and number of organs transplanted, and compared these variables for various causes of neurologic death. We compared trends to national Canadian data for 2000-2013 (2000-2011 for Quebec). Results: There were 226 brain-dead organ donors over the study period, of whom 100 (44.2%) had anoxic brain injury, 63 (27.9%) had stroke, and 51 (22.6%) had traumatic brain injury. The relative proportion of donors with traumatic brain injury decreased over time (> 30% in 2003-2005 v. 6%-23% in 2012-2014) (p = 0.004), whereas that with anoxic brain injury increased (14%-37% v. 46%-80%, respectively) (p brain-dead donors with traumatic brain injury decreased from 4.4 to less than 3 per million population between 2000 and 2013, and that with anoxic brain injury increased from 1.1 to 3.1 per million. Donors with anoxic brain injury had higher concentrations of creatinine, alanine aminotransferase and troponin T, and lower PaO2/FIO2 and urine output than donors with other diagnoses. The average number of organs transplanted per donor was 3.6 with anoxic brain injury versus 4.5 with traumatic brain injury or stroke (p = 0.002). Interpretation: Anoxic brain injury has become a leading cause of organ donation after neurologic determination of death in Canada. Organs from donors with anoxic brain injury have a greater degree of injury, and fewer are transplanted. These findings have implications for availability of

  2. The Ireland of Asia: trends in marriage timing in Sri Lanka.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Silva, W I

    1997-06-01

    This study examines marriage patterns among ever married women in Sri Lanka. Data are obtained from the 1987 and 1993 Sri Lanka Demographic and Health Surveys and population censuses during 1946-81. The greatest change in marriage patterns in Sri Lanka is the shift from arranged marriages to individual choice of partners. The individual attributes of the nuclear family have replaced household attributes, such the primacy of the family and hard work. Increased educational levels are desired for a marriage partner. Premarital sex behavior resulted in premarital first births among 1 in 6 married women 20-24 years old at the time of the survey. The singulate mean age of marriage increased from 18.3 years to 25.1 years during 1901-75, which means a long exposure to potential sexual activity. During 1975-80, SMAM has declined for both sexes, and then increased by 1 year. Rates of divorce and widowhood were quite low. The proportion of never married steadily increased over the decades. During 1946-93, the proportion of never married among women 15-19 years old increased from 75% to 93%. Among women 20-24 years old, the proportion increased from 29% to 61%. Marriage timing patterns in Sri Lanka are dissimilar to other South Asian countries and similar to Ireland's patterns. The age at first marriage increased from 20.8 years in the oldest cohort to 24.3 years in the cohort 35-39 years old. Cohorts younger than 35 years show a declining trend in marriage age. It is argued that marriage was delayed during the mid-1970s due to dowry, housing, and wedding expenses. Late marriage was due to the marriage squeeze and socioeconomic change. Mortality declined during the anti-malarial campaign of the late 1940s, with the result that more females were born during 1947-51 than males were born during 1942-46. First marriage ages range from 15 to 29 years for females and from 20 to 34 years for males.

  3. Analysis of stratospheric NO2 trends above Jungfraujoch using ground-based UV-visible, FTIR, and satellite nadir observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Stübi

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The trend in stratospheric NO2 column at the NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change station of Jungfraujoch (46.5° N, 8.0° E is assessed using ground-based FTIR and zenith-scattered visible sunlight SAOZ measurements over the period 1990 to 2009 as well as a composite satellite nadir data set constructed from ERS-2/GOME, ENVISAT/SCIAMACHY, and METOP-A/GOME-2 observations over the 1996–2009 period. To calculate the trends, a linear least squares regression model including explanatory variables for a linear trend, the mean annual cycle, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO, solar activity, and stratospheric aerosol loading is used. For the 1990–2009 period, statistically indistinguishable trends of −3.7 ± 1.1% decade−1 and −3.6 ± 0.9% decade−1 are derived for the SAOZ and FTIR NO2 column time series, respectively. SAOZ, FTIR, and satellite nadir data sets show a similar decrease over the 1996–2009 period, with trends of −2.4 ± 1.1% decade−1, −4.3 ± 1.4% decade−1, and −3.6 ± 2.2% decade−1, respectively. The fact that these declines are opposite in sign to the globally observed +2.5% decade−1 trend in N2O, suggests that factors other than N2O are driving the evolution of stratospheric NO2 at northern mid-latitudes. Possible causes of the decrease in stratospheric NO2 columns have been investigated. The most likely cause is a change in the NO2/NO partitioning in favor of NO, due to a possible stratospheric cooling and a decrease in stratospheric chlorine content, the latter being further confirmed by the negative trend in the ClONO2 column derived from FTIR observations at Jungfraujoch. Decreasing ClO concentrations slows the NO + ClO → NO2 + Cl reaction and a stratospheric cooling slows the NO + O3 → NO2 + O2 reaction, leaving more NOx in the form of NO. The slightly positive trends in ozone estimated from ground- and satellite-based data sets are also consistent with the decrease of

  4. Analysis of stratospheric NO2 trends above Jungfraujoch using ground-based UV-visible, FTIR, and satellite nadir observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Stübi

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The trend in stratospheric NO2 column at the NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change station of Jungfraujoch (46.5° N, 8.0° E is assessed using ground-based FTIR and zenith-scattered visible sunlight SAOZ measurements over the period 1990 to 2009 as well as a composite satellite nadir data set constructed from ERS-2/GOME, ENVISAT/SCIAMACHY, and METOP-A/GOME-2 observations over the 1996–2009 period. To calculate the trends, a linear least squares regression model including explanatory variables for a linear trend, the mean annual cycle, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO, solar activity, and stratospheric aerosol loading is used. For the 1990–2009 period, statistically indistinguishable trends of −3.7 ± 1.1%/decade and −3.6 ± 0.9%/decade are derived for the SAOZ and FTIR NO2 column time series, respectively. SAOZ, FTIR, and satellite nadir data sets show a similar decrease over the 1996–2009 period, with trends of −2.4 ± 1.1%/decade, −4.3 ± 1.4%/decade, and −3.6 ± 2.2%/decade, respectively. The fact that these declines are opposite in sign to the globally observed +2.5%/decade trend in N2O, suggests that factors other than N2O are driving the evolution of stratospheric NO2 at northern mid-latitudes. Possible causes of the decrease in stratospheric NO2 columns have been investigated. The most likely cause is a change in the NO2/NO partitioning in favor of NO, due to a possible stratospheric cooling and a decrease in stratospheric chlorine content, the latter being further confirmed by the negative trend in the ClONO2 column derived from FTIR observations at Jungfraujoch. Decreasing ClO concentrations slows the NO + ClO → NO2 + Cl reaction and a stratospheric cooling slows the NO + O3 → NO2 + O2 reaction, leaving more NOx in the form of NO. The slightly positive trends in ozone estimated from ground- and satellite-based data sets are also consistent with the decrease of NO2 through the NO2 + O3

  5. Past, Present, and Future Trends in Teaching Clinical Skills through Web-Based Learning Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coe Regan, Jo Ann R.; Youn, Eric J.

    2008-01-01

    Distance education in social work has grown significantly due to the use of interactive television and computer networks. Given the recent developments in delivering distance education utilizing Web-based technology, this article presents a literature review focused on identifying generational trends in the development of Web-based learning…

  6. Trends in web-based HIV behavioural surveillance among gay and bisexual men in New Zealand: complementing location-based surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxton, Peter J W; Dickson, Nigel P; Hughes, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Most HIV behavioural surveillance programmes for gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (MSM) sample from location-based (offline) or web-based (online) populations, but few combine these two streams. MSM sampled online have been found to differ demographically and behaviourally from those sampled offline, meaning trends identified in one system may not hold for the other. The aim was to examine trends among MSM responding to supplementary repeat online behavioural surveillance surveys who had not participated in offline surveillance earlier that year in the same city, to see whether trends were parallel, converged or diverged. We recruited a total of 1613 MSM from an Internet dating site in Auckland, New Zealand in 2006, 2008 and 2011 using identical questionnaires and eligibility criteria to offline surveillance. Condom use was stable over time, HIV testing rates rose, the proportion reporting over 20 recent male partners declined, and anal intercourse rates increased, consistent with trends in offline surveillance conducted concomitantly and reported elsewhere. Variant trends included greater stability in condom use with casual partners among online-recruited MSM, and a rise in regular fuckbuddy partnering not identified among offline-recruited MSM. Among MSM recruited online, the frequency of checking Internet dating profiles increased between 2008 and 2011. In conclusion, supplementary web-based behavioural surveillance among MSM generally corroborates trends identified in offline surveillance. There are however some divergent trends, that would have been overlooked if only one form of surveillance had been conducted. As MSM populations increasingly shift their socialising patterns online and diversify, multiple forms of HIV behavioural monitoring may be required.

  7. Aircraft emission inventories for scheduled air traffic for the 1976-92 time period. Historical trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baughcum, S.L.; Henderson, S.C.; Tritz, T.G. [Boeing Co., Seattle, WA (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Emission inventories of fuel burned, NO{sub x}, CO, and hydrocarbons have been calculated for scheduled air traffic in 1976, 1984, 1990 and 1992 on a 1 deg latitude x 1 deg longitude x 1 km pressure altitude grid. Using this database, the seasonal variation and historical trends in aircraft emissions have been calculated for selected geographical regions (e.g., North Atlantic, Europe, North America, North Pacific). The trend in emissions is a combination of the effects of passenger demand growth, improved aircraft efficiency, changes in combustor characteristics, and aircraft size. (author) 8 refs.

  8. Time trends in educational inequalities in cancer mortality in Colombia, 1998-2012

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E. de Vries (Esther); I. Arroyave (Ivan); C. Pardo (Constanza)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractObjectives: To evaluate trends in premature cancer mortality in Colombia by educational level in three periods: 1998-2002 with low healthcare insurance coverage, 2003-2007 with rapidly increasing coverage and finally 2008-2012 with almost universal coverage (2008-2012). Setting: Colombia

  9. Long-time trends in influenza-like illness and associated determinants in the Netherlands.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, F.; Donker, G.A.; Wilbrink, B.; Gageldonk-Lafeber, A.B. van; Sande, M.A.B. van der

    2009-01-01

    We analysed long-term epidemiological trends in influenza-like illness (ILI) in The Netherlands and used an ecological analysis to estimate its relationship with age, influenza vaccination, and virological aspects. This study used data from weekly ILI consultation reports from sentinel general pract

  10. Modelling BSE trend over time in Europe, a risk assessment perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ducrot, C.; Sala, C.; Ru, G.; Koeijer, de A.A.; Sheridan, H.; Saegerman, C.; Selhorst, T.; Arnold, M.; Polak, M.P.; Calavas, D.

    2010-01-01

    BSE is a zoonotic disease that caused the emergence of variant Creuzfeldt-Jakob disease in the mid 1990s. The trend of the BSE epidemic in seven European countries was assessed and compared, using Age-Period-Cohort and Reproduction Ratio modelling applied to surveillance data 2001-2007. A strong dec

  11. Trends into rainfall time series of two andes basins of Valle del Cauca (Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisury Cardona-Guerrero

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the goal of detecting changes or trends in registered data of daily rainfall in the basins of rivers Dagua and Cali, located in the south-west of Colombia, in the Valle del Cauca, nine climate extremes indices were calculated using the RClimDex software. For this, precipitation trends were analyzed in 18 rain gauges located in the study area with historical series ranging between 21 and 56 years. Homogeneity tests were made to data to ensure consistency in the information. The results show changes in rainfall, dominated by the increasing trends for almost all indices; however most of the trends do not show high statistical significance. Also, a significant increase in the average annual total rainfall of 15.2 mm (Dagua river basin and 9.1 mm (Cali river basin in the stations located below 1500 msnm was obtained. Moreover, in the stations located at higher elevations, decreases were observed. There is a homogeneous spatial distribution for the most of the indices and similar patterns were found located in defined areas of the study zone, which may affect the runoff production in watersheds in the coming years.

  12. Time trends of mercury in feathers of West Greenland birds of prey during 1851-2003

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dietz, Rune; Riget, Frank Farsø; Boertmann, David

    2006-01-01

    Temporal trends of mercury (Hg) in West Greenland gyrfalcons, peregrine falcons, and white-tailed eagles were determined over 150 years from 1851 to 2003. Hg was measured in the fifth primary feather. Results showed that Hg increased in the order gyrfalcon (lowest)

  13. Adaptive Wavelets Based on Second Generation Wavelet Transform and Their Applications to Trend Analysis and Prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DUAN Chen-dong; JIANG Hong-kai; HE Zheng-jia

    2004-01-01

    In order to make trend analysis and prediction to acquisition data in a mechanical equipment condition monitoring system, a new method of trend feature extraction and prediction of acquisition data is proposed which constructs an adaptive wavelet on the acquisition data by means of second generation wavelet transform (SGWT). Firstly, taking the vanishing moment number of the predictor as a constraint, the linear predictor and updater are designed according to the acquisition data by using symmetrical interpolating scheme. Then the trend of the data is obtained through doing SGWT decomposition, threshold processing and SGWT reconstruction. Secondly, under the constraint of the vanishing moment number of the predictor, another predictor based on the acquisition data is devised to predict the future trend of the data using a non-symmetrical interpolating scheme. A one-step prediction algorithm is presented to predict the future evolution trend with historical data. The proposed method obtained a desirable effect in peak-to-peak value trend analysis for a machine set in an oil refinery.

  14. Historical Trends in Ground-Based Optical Space Surveillance System Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoemaker, M.; Shroyer, L.

    In the spirit of the 50th anniversary of the launch of the first man-made satellite, an historical overview of ground-based optical space surveillance systems is provided. Specific emphasis is given on gathering metrics to analyze design trends. The subject of space surveillance spans the history of spaceflight: from the early tracking cameras at missile ranges, the first observations of Sputnik, to the evolution towards highly capable commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) systems, and much in between. Whereas previous reviews in the literature have been limited in scope to specific time periods, operational programs, countries, etc., a broad overview of a wide range of sources is presented. This review is focused on systems whose primary design purpose can be classified as Space Object Identification (SOI) or Orbit Determination (OD). SOI systems are those that capture images or data to determine information about the satellite itself, such as attitude, features, and material composition. OD systems are those that produce estimates of the satellite position, usually in the form of orbital elements or a time history of tracking angles. Systems are also categorized based on the orbital regime in which their targets reside, which has been simplified in this study to either Low Earth Orbit (LEO) or Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO). The systems are further classified depending on the industry segment (government/commercial or academic), and whether the program is foreign or domestic. In addition to gathering metrics on systems designed solely for man-made satellite observations, it is interesting to find examples of other systems being similarly used. Examples include large astronomical telescopes being used for GEO debris surveys and anomaly resolution for deep-space probes. Another interesting development is the increase in number and capability of COTS systems, some of which are specifically marketed to consumers as satellite trackers. After describing the results of the

  15. Infodemiology of status epilepticus: A systematic validation of the Google Trends-based search queries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi; Bacigaluppi, Susanna; Robba, Chiara; Nardone, Raffaele; Trinka, Eugen; Brigo, Francesco

    2016-02-01

    People increasingly use Google looking for health-related information. We previously demonstrated that in English-speaking countries most people use this search engine to obtain information on status epilepticus (SE) definition, types/subtypes, and treatment. Now, we aimed at providing a quantitative analysis of SE-related web queries. This analysis represents an advancement, with respect to what was already previously discussed, in that the Google Trends (GT) algorithm has been further refined and correlational analyses have been carried out to validate the GT-based query volumes. Google Trends-based SE-related query volumes were well correlated with information concerning causes and pharmacological and nonpharmacological treatments. Google Trends can provide both researchers and clinicians with data on realities and contexts that are generally overlooked and underexplored by classic epidemiology. In this way, GT can foster new epidemiological studies in the field and can complement traditional epidemiological tools.

  16. Trends in evolution of 5S rRNA of deuterostomes: bases and homogeneous clusters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Maria Rodrigues Subacius

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Evolution of metazoan 5S rRNA sequences was analyzed through base composition and types, location and frequency of clustered bases. Characters from sequences of protostomes did not show regular trends as compared with paleontology dating or organism complexity. Trends of increasing G and C, stronger in G clusters, and decreasing A and U, were detected in deuterostomes, in parallel with evolution of complexity. The multifunctional domain 71-104 was highlighted among conserved stretches. Clusters of C were typical of helices. Those of G were longer, extending from helices into loops or related to bulges, which is suggestive of functional significance. Deuterostomian trends were installed early in the lineage and reached full development in aquatic organisms, not increasing further after reptiles. It can be suggested that ribosomal RNA structures participated in deuterostomian high regulatory complexity, either specifically or as part of the widespread processes of chromosomal regionalization.

  17. Investigating international time trends in the incidence and prevalence of atopic eczema 1990-2010: a systematic review of epidemiological studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivette A G Deckers

    Full Text Available The prevalence of atopic eczema has been found to have increased greatly in some parts of the world. Building on a systematic review of global disease trends in asthma, our objective was to study trends in incidence and prevalence of atopic eczema. Disease trends are important for health service planning and for generating hypotheses regarding the aetiology of chronic disorders. We conducted a systematic search for high quality reports of cohort, repeated cross-sectional and routine healthcare database-based studies in seven electronic databases. Studies were required to report on at least two measures of the incidence and/or prevalence of atopic eczema between 1990 and 2010 and needed to use comparable methods at all assessment points. We retrieved 2,464 citations, from which we included 69 reports. Assessing global trends was complicated by the use of a range of outcome measures across studies and possible changes in diagnostic criteria over time. Notwithstanding these difficulties, there was evidence suggesting that the prevalence of atopic eczema was increasing in Africa, eastern Asia, western Europe and parts of northern Europe (i.e. the UK. No clear trends were identified in other regions. There was inadequate study coverage worldwide, particularly for repeated measures of atopic eczema incidence. Further epidemiological work is needed to investigate trends in what is now one of the most common long-term disorders globally. A range of relevant measures of incidence and prevalence, careful use of definitions and description of diagnostic criteria, improved study design, more comprehensive reporting and appropriate interpretation of these data are all essential to ensure that this important field of epidemiological enquiry progresses in a scientifically robust manner.

  18. 'Failure limited' data and TTT-based trend tests in multiple repairable systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caroni, C., E-mail: ccar@math.ntua.g [Department of Mathematics, School of Applied Mathematical and Physical Sciences, National Technical University of Athens (NTUA), 9 Iroon Polytechniou, Zografou 157 80, Athens (Greece)

    2010-06-15

    Tests for trend in multiple repairable systems based on the total time on test (introduced by Kvaloy and Lindqvist) are valid for data that end at a failure time only if data collection was planned to continue until a predetermined number of failures had occurred. They are not valid for a commoner form of data that end with the last of a random number of failures within a predetermined observation period. The necessary modification to the analysis is given here and appropriate terminology is suggested.

  19. Trends of phytoplankton characteristics and their communities in pre- and post-liming time in Lake Orta (1984-1998

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierisa PANZANI

    2001-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper is an assessment of the changing properties of Lake Orta phytoplankton in the period 1984-1998, which includes the large-scale liming carried out in the lake in 1989 and 1990. The phytoplankton is analysed first in its general properties (abundance, biovolume, chlorophyll-a concentration, average cell size, diversity by means of time courses of the mentioned variables based on monthly data through the entire period, and by correlations between the same variables. Moreover, through clustering techniques, the evolution of the species composition has been studied, showing the gradual decrease of chlorophytes after the liming and the noticeable increase of the diatom population, both as biovolume and diversity. Although the assemblage of the dominant species still mirrors the presence of some residual toxic compounds into the lake water, in the most recent period the evolution of the algal populations showed a clear trend towards a species assemblage more similar to those observed in the other deep italian subalpine lakes. After the improving of the chemical environment, the main abiotic factor that in the next years could play a major role in modifying the species assemblage is probably the phosphorus supply, whose in-lake concentration is low, despite the high annual load from the basin. A better understanding of the mechanisms underlying the phosphorus dynamics represent the basis to make reliable hypotheses about the future evolution of the phytoplankton assemblage.

  20. Mortality related to tuberculosis-HIV/AIDS co-infection in Brazil, 2000-2011: epidemiological patterns and time trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricélia da Silveira Lima

    Full Text Available Abstract: Co-infection of tuberculosis (TB-HIV/AIDS is a persistent public health problem in Brazil. This study describes epidemiological patterns and time trends of mortality related to TB-HIV/AIDS co-infection. Based on mortality data from 2000-2011 (almost 12.5 million deaths, 19,815 deaths related to co-infection were analyzed. The average age-adjusted mortality rate was 0.97 deaths/100,000 inhabitants. The highest mortality rates were found among males, those in economically productive age groups, black race/color and residents of the South region. There was a significant reduction in the mortality coefficient at the national level (annual average percent change: -1.7%; 95%CI: -2.4; -1.0, with different patterns among regions: increases in the North, Northeast and Central regions, a reduction in the Southeast and a stabilization in the South. The strategic integration of TB-HIV/AIDS control programmes is fundamental to reduce the burden of mortality related to co-infection in Brazil.

  1. Trend analysis of performance parameters of pre-packed columns for protein chromatography over a time span of ten years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scharl, Theresa; Jungreuthmayer, Christian; Dürauer, Astrid; Schweiger, Susanne; Schröder, Tim; Jungbauer, Alois

    2016-09-23

    Pre-packed small scale chromatography columns are increasingly used for process development, for determination of design space in bioprocess development, and for post-licence process verifications. The packing quality of 30,000 pre-packed columns delivered to customers over a period 10 years has been analyzed by advanced statistical tools. First, the data were extracted and checked for inconsistencies, and then were tabulated and made ready for statistical processing using the programming language Perl (https://www.perl.org/) and the statistical computing environment R (https://www.r-project.org/). Reduced HETP and asymmetry were plotted over time to obtain a trend of packing quality over 10 years. The obtained data were used as a visualized coefficient of variation analysis (VCVA), a process that has often been applied in other industries such as semiconductor manufacturing. A typical fluctuation of reduced HETP was seen. A Tsunami effect in manufacturing, the effect of propagation of manufacturing deviations leading to out-of-specification products, was not observed with these pre-packed columns. Principal component analysis (PCA) showed that all packing materials cluster. Our data analysis showed that the current commercially available chromatography media used for biopharmaceutical manufacturing can be reproducibly and uniformly packed in polymer-based chromatography columns, which are designed for ready-to-use purposes. Although the number of packed columns has quadrupled over one decade the packing quality has remained stable.

  2. The Living Planet Index: using species population time series to track trends in biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loh, Jonathan; Green, Rhys E; Ricketts, Taylor; Lamoreux, John; Jenkins, Martin; Kapos, Valerie; Randers, Jorgen

    2005-02-28

    The Living Planet Index was developed to measure the changing state of the world's biodiversity over time. It uses time-series data to calculate average rates of change in a large number of populations of terrestrial, freshwater and marine vertebrate species. The dataset contains about 3000 population time series for over 1100 species. Two methods of calculating the index are outlined: the chain method and a method based on linear modelling of log-transformed data. The dataset is analysed to compare the relative representation of biogeographic realms, ecoregional biomes, threat status and taxonomic groups among species contributing to the index. The two methods show very similar results: terrestrial species declined on average by 25% from 1970 to 2000. Birds and mammals are over-represented in comparison with other vertebrate classes, and temperate species are over-represented compared with tropical species, but there is little difference in representation between threatened and non-threatened species. Some of the problems arising from over-representation are reduced by the way in which the index is calculated. It may be possible to reduce this further by post-stratification and weighting, but new information would first need to be collected for data-poor classes, realms and biomes.

  3. College wage premium over time: trends in Europe in the last 15 years.

    OpenAIRE

    Elena Crivellaro

    2014-01-01

    While there has been intense debate in the empirical literature over the evolution of the college wage premium in the United States, its evolution in Europe has received little attention. This paper investigates the causes of the evolution of the college wage premium in 12 european countries from 1994 to 2009. I use cross country variation in relative supply, demand, and labour market institutions to examine their effects on the trend in wage inequality. I address possible concerns of endogen...

  4. THE EFFECT OF DECOMPOSITION METHOD AS DATA PREPROCESSING ON NEURAL NETWORKS MODEL FOR FORECASTING TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subanar Subanar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, one of the central topics for the neural networks (NN community is the issue of data preprocessing on the use of NN. In this paper, we will investigate this topic particularly on the effect of Decomposition method as data processing and the use of NN for modeling effectively time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. Limited empirical studies on seasonal time series forecasting with neural networks show that some find neural networks are able to model seasonality directly and prior deseasonalization is not necessary, and others conclude just the opposite. In this research, we study particularly on the effectiveness of data preprocessing, including detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method on NN modeling and forecasting performance. We use two kinds of data, simulation and real data. Simulation data are examined on multiplicative of trend and seasonality patterns. The results are compared to those obtained from the classical time series model. Our result shows that a combination of detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method is the effective data preprocessing on the use of NN for forecasting trend and seasonal time series.

  5. Geo-mapping of time trends in childhood caries risk a method for assessment of preventive care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Strömberg Ulf

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dental caries is unevenly distributed within populations with a higher burden in low socio-economy groups. Several attempts have been made to allocate resources to those that need them the most; there is a need for convenient approaches to population-based monitoring of caries risk over time. The aim of this study was to develop the geo-map concept, addressing time trends in caries risk, and demonstrate the novel approach by analyzing epidemiological data from preschool residents in the region of Halland, Sweden. Methods The study population consisted of 9,973 (2006 and 10,927 (2010 children between 3 to 6years of age (~77% of the eligible population from whom caries data were obtained. Reported dmfs>0 for a child was considered as the primary caries outcome. Each study individual was geo-coded with respect to his/her residence parish (66 parishes in the region. Smoothed caries risk geo-maps, along with corresponding statistical certainty geo-maps, were produced by using the free software Rapid Inquiry Facility and the ESRI ArcGIS system. Parish-level socioeconomic data were available. Results The overall proportion of caries-free (dmfs=0 children improved from 84.0% in 2006 to 88.6% in 2010. The ratio of maximum and minimum (parish-level smoothed relative risks (SmRRs increased from 1.76/0.44=4.0 in 2006 to 2.37/0.33=7.2 in 2010, which indicated an increased geographical polarization of early childhood caries in the population. Eight parishes showed evidential, positional changes in caries risk between 2006 and 2010; their corresponding SmRRs and statistical certainty ranks changed markedly. No considerable parallel changes in parish-level socioeconomic characteristics were seen during the same time period. Conclusion Geo-maps based on caries risk can be used to monitor changes in caries risk over time. Thus, geo-mapping offers a convenient tool for evaluating the effectiveness of tailored health promotion and preventive

  6. Autism Prevalence Trends Over Time in Denmark: Changes in Prevalence and Age at Diagnosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parner, Erik; Schendel, Diana; Thorsen, Poul

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of changing age at diagnosis on the diagnosed prevalence of autism among different birth cohorts. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Children were identified in the Danish Medical Birth Registry and psychiatric outcomes were obtained via linkage...... with the Danish National Psychiatric Register. PARTICIPANTS: All children born in Denmark from January 1, 1994, through December 31, 1999 (N = 407 458). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The age-specific prevalence, hazard ratio, and relative risk by age. RESULTS: Statistically significant shifts in age at diagnosis were...... prevalence of autism in young children in the more recent cohorts compared with the oldest cohort. This study supports the argument that the apparent increase in autism in recent years is at least in part attributable to decreases in the age at diagnosis over time....

  7. Systematic review of time trends in the prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection in China and the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagy, Peter; Johansson, Saga; Molloy-Bland, Michael

    2016-01-01

    It has been suggested that the prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection has stabilized in the USA and is decreasing in China. We conducted a systematic literature analysis to test this hypothesis. PubMed and Embase searches were conducted up to 19 January 2015. Trends in the prevalence of H. pylori infection over time were assessed by regression analysis using Microsoft Excel. Overall, 25 Chinese studies (contributing 28 datasets) and 11 US studies (contributing 11 datasets) were included. There was a significant decrease over time in the H. pylori infection prevalence for the Chinese studies overall (p = 0.00018) and when studies were limited to those that used serum immunoglobulin G (IgG) assays to detect H. pylori infection (p = 0.014; 20 datasets). The weighted mean prevalence of H. pylori infection was 66 % for rural Chinese populations and 47 % for urban Chinese populations. There was a significant trend towards a decreasing prevalence of H. pylori infection for studies that included only urban populations (p = 0.04; 9 datasets). This trend was no longer statistically significant when these studies were further restricted to those that used serum IgG assays to detect H. pylori infection, although this may have been because of low statistical power due to the small number of datasets available for this analysis (p = 0.28; 6 datasets). There were no significant trends in terms of changes in the prevalence of H. pylori infection over time for studies conducted in the USA. In conclusion, the prevalence of H. pylori infection is most likely decreasing in China, due to a combination of increasing urbanization, which we found to be associated with lower H. pylori infection rates, and possibly also decreasing rates of H. pylori infection within urban populations. This will probably result in a gradual decrease in peptic ulcer and gastric cancer rates in China over time.

  8. The Diverge of Liquidity and Inflation in the After-Crisis Time--Based on the Trend of Inflation Over Time%后危机时代流动性过剩与通货膨胀的偏离--基于长期通货膨胀趋势的解释视角

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    栗亮

    2014-01-01

    The paper argues the reason why the liquidity excess did not lead to the acceleration of inflation in the present time is because that inflation rate will drop over time. However, the asset price plays some roles in short term. We try to explain that why the liquidity excess did not raise the inflation, and we think the most mainly reasons are inflation targeting, the independence of central bank and the globalization.%本文认为此轮流动性过剩没有导致通货膨胀率明显上升的主要原因在长期来看应该是通货膨胀率不断降低的一般规律,在短期来看,资产价格起到了一定作用。本文试图从目标通货膨胀制、央行独立性和全球化的角度解释尽管目前全球出现普遍性的流动性过剩,但是通货膨胀却保持在相对平稳水平的原因。

  9. Satellite-based analysis of recent trends in the ecohydrology of a semi-arid region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Gokmen

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We present a regional framework for an integrated and spatiotemporally distributed assessment of human-induced trends in the hydrology and the associated ecological health of a semi-arid basin where both human activities (i.e. agriculture and natural ecosystems are highly groundwater dependent. To achieve this, we analysed the recent trends (from year 2000 to 2010 in precipitation, evapotranspiration (actual and potential and vegetation greenness (i.e. NDVI using a combination of satellite and ground-based observations. The trend assessment was applied for the semi-arid Konya Basin (Turkey, one of the largest endorheic basins in the world. The results revealed a consistent increasing trend of both yearly evapotranspiration (totally 63 MCM yr−1 from croplands and mean NDVI (about 0.004 NDVI yr−1 in irrigated croplands, especially concentrating in the plain part of the basin, while no significant trends were observed for the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration variables. On the contrary, a consistent decreasing trend of both yearly evapotranspiration (totally −2.1 MCM yr−1 and mean NDVI (−0.001 NDVI yr−1 was observed in the wetlands, which also cannot be explained by trends in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The emerging picture suggest that the greening trend of the vegetation and increasing of evapotranspiration in the plain are related to land cover changes (i.e. conversion into irrigated croplands and to the intensification of the supplementary irrigation for agriculture, which in turn caused drying out of some wetlands and the natural vegetation which mostly depend on the groundwater, the main source of irrigation water as well. Our study presented an example of the utility of spatially and temporally continuous RS data in assessing the regional trends in hydrological and ecological variables and their interactions in a spatially distributed manner in a semi-arid region, which can also be adapted to

  10. Global distribution and trends of tropospheric ozone: An observation-based review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. R. Cooper

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Tropospheric ozone plays a major role in Earth’s atmospheric chemistry processes and also acts as an air pollutant and greenhouse gas. Due to its short lifetime, and dependence on sunlight and precursor emissions from natural and anthropogenic sources, tropospheric ozone’s abundance is highly variable in space and time on seasonal, interannual and decadal time-scales. Recent, and sometimes rapid, changes in observed ozone mixing ratios and ozone precursor emissions inspired us to produce this up-to-date overview of tropospheric ozone’s global distribution and trends. Much of the text is a synthesis of in situ and remotely sensed ozone observations reported in the peer-reviewed literature, but we also include some new and extended analyses using well-known and referenced datasets to draw connections between ozone trends and distributions in different regions of the world. In addition, we provide a brief evaluation of the accuracy of rural or remote surface ozone trends calculated by three state-of-the-science chemistry-climate models, the tools used by scientists to fill the gaps in our knowledge of global tropospheric ozone distribution and trends.

  11. Seroprevalence of infectious markers & their trends in blood donors in a hospital based blood bank in north India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R N Makroo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background & objectives: Hepatitis B virus (HBV, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV, hepatitis C virus (HCV and syphilis infections pose a great threat to blood safety. This study was undertaken to investigate the seroprevalence of serologic markers for transfusion transmitted infections (TTIs among blood donors at a hospital based blood centre in north India over a period of nine years. Methods: The results of serologic markers for TTIs (HBsAg, anti-HCV, anti-HIV and syphilis of all blood donations (both voluntary and replacement at our hospital from January 2005 to December 2013 were screened. Additional analysis was conducted to examine the prevalence trends associated with each of the positive marker. Results: The data of 180,477 donors [173,019 (95.86% males and 7,458 (4.13% females] were analyzed. Replacement donations [174,939 (96.93%] represented the majority whereas, only 5,538 (3.06% donations were from the voluntary donors. The risk of blood being reactive was three times higher in male donors when compared with the female donors. The risk of blood being reactive for one or more infectious markers was 2.1 times higher in replacement donors when compared with the voluntary donors. Seropositivity of HIV, HBsAg, HBcAb, syphilis showed a significant decreasing trend (P<0.05 while there was an increasing trend in HCV infection which was insignificant. Interpretation & conclusions: This study reflects that the risk of TTIs has been decreased over time with respect to HIV, HBV and syphilis, but the trends for HCV remains almost the same in blood donors. Blood transfusion remains a risk factor for the spread of blood-borne infections. Therefore, improvements are needed to strengthen both safety and availability of blood.

  12. An Examination of Temporal Trends in Electricity Reliability Based on Reports from U.S. Electric Utilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eto, Joseph H.; LaCommare, Kristina Hamachi; Larsen, Peter; Todd, Annika; Fisher, Emily

    2012-01-06

    Since the 1960s, the U.S. electric power system has experienced a major blackout about once every 10 years. Each has been a vivid reminder of the importance society places on the continuous availability of electricity and has led to calls for changes to enhance reliability. At the root of these calls are judgments about what reliability is worth and how much should be paid to ensure it. In principle, comprehensive information on the actual reliability of the electric power system and on how proposed changes would affect reliability ought to help inform these judgments. Yet, comprehensive, national-scale information on the reliability of the U.S. electric power system is lacking. This report helps to address this information gap by assessing trends in U.S. electricity reliability based on information reported by electric utilities on power interruptions experienced by their customers. Our research augments prior investigations, which focused only on power interruptions originating in the bulk power system, by considering interruptions originating both from the bulk power system and from within local distribution systems. Our research also accounts for differences among utility reliability reporting practices by employing statistical techniques that remove the influence of these differences on the trends that we identify. The research analyzes up to 10 years of electricity reliability information collected from 155 U.S. electric utilities, which together account for roughly 50% of total U.S. electricity sales. The questions analyzed include: 1. Are there trends in reported electricity reliability over time? 2. How are trends in reported electricity reliability affected by the installation or upgrade of an automated outage management system? 3. How are trends in reported electricity reliability affected by the use of IEEE Standard 1366-2003?

  13. Information-time based futures pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Simon; Wang, Jai Jen

    2009-09-01

    This study follows Clark [P.K. Clark, A subordinated stochastic process model with finite variance for speculative prices, Econometrica 41 (1973) 135-155] and Chang, Chang and Lim [C.W. Chang, S.K. Chang, K.G. Lim, Information-time option pricing: Theory and empirical evidence, Journal of Financial Economics 48 (1998) 211-242] to subordinate an information-time based directing process into calendar-time based parent processes. A closed-form futures pricing formula is derived after taking into account the information-time setting and the stochasticity of the spot price, interest rate, and convenience yield. According to the empirical results on the TAIEX and TFETX data from 1998/7/21 to 2003/12/31, the information-time based model performs better than its calendar-time based counterpart and the cost of carry model, especially when the information arrival intensity estimates become larger.

  14. Epidemiological and mortality trends in infective endocarditis, a 17-year population-based prospective study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiavarelli, Mario; Scalese, Marco; Nencioni, Cesira; Valentini, Silvia; Guerrini, Francesco; D’Aiello, Incoronata; Picchi, Andrea; De Sensi, Francesco; Habib, Gilbert

    2017-01-01

    Background The population at risk, the clinical and microbiological features of infective endocarditis (IE) have changed. Aim of our study was to evaluate the contemporary epidemiological trends, over a 17-year period in a definite region of Tuscany, Italy, to analyze the clinical outcomes and associated prognostic factors. Methods From 1 January 1998 to 31 December 2014, all patients with a definite diagnosis of IE were prospectively entered in a data-base. The Health-Care system data-base was interrogated to capture patients who could have been missed. The final dataset derived by the merging of the two data-bases. Results Incidence rate of IE was 4.6/100,000/y with a significant linear incidence increase. In hospitalized patients the incidence was 1.27/1,000 admissions. Over age 65 incidence rate was 11.7/100,000/y. Male/female ratio was 1.54:1. A temporal trend towards an increase in the mean population age was found (P=0.033). There was an increase in the incidence of Health-care associated IE, P=0.016. The most common microorganisms were staphylococcus aureus (25%) and coagulase-negative staphylococci (22%). In-hospital mortality was 24%. A trend towards an increase in mortality rate was found (P=0.055). Independent predictors of mortality were older age, S. aureus infection, heart failure, septic shock and persistent bacteremia. Conclusions Our study confirms an increasing mortality trend in IE, although with a borderline significance. Elderly forms are associated with poor prognosis and higher than 1-year mortality rate even in the multivariate analysis. Ageing population, increase in healthcare-associated and staphylococcal infections, may explain the rise of IE incidence and of the mortality trend. PMID:28164010

  15. Trends over time in tree and seedling phylogenetic diversity indicate regional differences in forest biodiversity change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Kevin M; Woodall, Christopher W

    2012-03-01

    Changing climate conditions may impact the short-term ability of forest tree species to regenerate in many locations. In the longer term, tree species may be unable to persist in some locations while they become established in new places. Over both time frames, forest tree biodiversity may change in unexpected ways. Using repeated inventory measurements five years apart from more than 7000 forested plots in the eastern United States, we tested three hypotheses: phylogenetic diversity is substantially different from species richness as a measure of biodiversity; forest communities have undergone recent changes in phylogenetic diversity that differ by size class, region, and seed dispersal strategy; and these patterns are consistent with expected early effects of climate change. Specifically, the magnitude of diversity change across broad regions should be greater among seedlings than in trees, should be associated with latitude and elevation, and should be greater among species with high dispersal capacity. Our analyses demonstrated that phylogenetic diversity and species richness are decoupled at small and medium scales and are imperfectly associated at large scales. This suggests that it is appropriate to apply indicators of biodiversity change based on phylogenetic diversity, which account for evolutionary relationships among species and may better represent community functional diversity. Our results also detected broadscale patterns of forest biodiversity change that are consistent with expected early effects of climate change. First, the statistically significant increase over time in seedling diversity in the South suggests that conditions there have become more favorable for the reproduction and dispersal of a wider variety of species, whereas the significant decrease in northern seedling diversity indicates that northern conditions have become less favorable. Second, we found weak correlations between seedling diversity change and latitude in both zones

  16. TRENDS IN DELIVERING EDUCATIONAL SERVICES WITHIN THE KNOWLEDGE-BASED SOCIETY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZAMFIR Andreea

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Education and implicitly educational services become extremely important in the context of the knowledge-based society. Therefore, this study investigates the trends in delivering services identified through research of literature, as well as based on personal experience in providing educational services. It has been concluded that information and communication technology creates a vast opportunity to improve the way of delivering educational services within the knowledge-based society, to develop (educate peoples awareness of the need for knowledge, as well as their skills for the knowledge-based society.

  17. Hypovitaminosis D in a sunny country: time trends, predictors, and implications for practice guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoteit, Maha; Al-Shaar, Laila; Yazbeck, Cynthia; Bou Sleiman, Maria; Ghalayini, Tala; Fuleihan, Ghada El-Hajj

    2014-07-01

    The aim of the current study is to investigate the prevalence of hypovitaminosis D in Lebanese subjects, its robust predictors, evaluate the relationship between 25 hydroxy vitamin D [25(OH)D] and parathyroid hormone levels, and derive desirable vitamin D levels, based on a large hospital laboratory database spanning all age groups. Data from a large representative digitized database of 9147 subjects, mostly outpatients, evaluated between 2000-2004 and 2007-2008, in whom information on age, gender, service, and time of the year, was analyzed. The PTH-25(OH)D relationship was studied in a subset of 657 adult subjects, in whom such data were available. At a 25(OH)D cut-off ofhypovitaminosis D ranged between 58% and 62% in pediatric subjects, 44% and 60% in adults, and 41% and 62% in elderly, in the 2 study periods. At a cut-off Hypovitaminosis D is prevalent in our sunny country, even using a conservative population-derived cut-off of 20 ng/ml, and thus the need for a public health strategy for supplementation.

  18. Graduating dental students' views of competency statements: importance, confidence, and time trends from 2008 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitney, Eli M; Walton, Joanne N; Aleksejuniene, Jolanta; Schönwetter, Dieter J

    2015-03-01

    Competency documents are used in dental education as both an educational framework and an accreditation instrument. The aim of this study was to analyze the perceptions of graduating dental students at the University of British Columbia (UBC) regarding the importance of each competency statement, as well as to assess their confidence in their abilities associated with each statement. The instrument was based on the survey developed by Schönwetter et al. at the University of Manitoba using the Association of Canadian Faculties of Dentistry competency document. The current study surveyed UBC graduating students in the years 2008 through 2012. The response rates ranged from 66.7% to 95.9%, averaging 77.5% across all five years. The results showed that, overall, the students rated all the competencies as important, but they rated their confidence lower than the perceived importance. Correlation coefficients averaged a moderate correlation of 0.376 for all competency statements except the five with the greatest discrepancy between perceived importance and confidence. The competencies the students perceived as most important tended to be associated with tasks frequently performed during predoctoral dental education. The instrument used in this study can help other academic dental institutions identify patterns of students' perceived competency importance and confidence to inform allocation of teaching time and resources and adopt new methodologies to address identified areas of need.

  19. Time Trends in Fast Food Consumption and Its Association with Obesity among Children in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Xue

    Full Text Available Study the trends in Western fast food consumption (FFC among Chinese school-age children and the association between FFC and obesity using nationwide survey data.Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted to study the trends in FFC and the associations between FFC and weight status (overweight, obesity and body mass index (BMI z-score.Longitudinal data from families were collected in the 2004 and 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (covering nine provinces throughout China.The analysis included 2656 Chinese children aged 6 to 18 years (1542 and 1114 children in the 2004 and 2009 survey, respectively.FFC (reported having consumed Western fast food in the past three months has increased between 2004 and 2009, from 18.5% to 23.9% in those aged 6-18, and increased more rapidly among those aged 13-17, from 17.9% to 26.3%. The increase was significant in almost all groups by age, sex, family income, and residence. Our cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses did not detect a significant association between FFC and obesity/overweight or BMI z-score (e.g., for BMI z-score, boys: β = 0.02, 95% CI: -0.71, 0.75; girls: β = -0.14, 95% CI: -1.03, 0.75.FFC has increased in Chinese school-age children, especially in older children, boys, and those from low- and medium-income families, rural areas, and East China, but decreased among those from high-income families during 2004-2009. The data did not show a significant association between FFC and obesity.

  20. Mapping Clearances in Tropical Dry Forests Using Breakpoints, Trend, and Seasonal Components from MODIS Time Series: Does Forest Type Matter?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth Grogan

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Tropical environments present a unique challenge for optical time series analysis, primarily owing to fragmented data availability, persistent cloud cover and atmospheric aerosols. Additionally, little is known of whether the performance of time series change detection is affected by diverse forest types found in tropical dry regions. In this paper, we develop a methodology for mapping forest clearing in Southeast Asia using a study region characterised by heterogeneous forest types. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS time series are decomposed using Breaks For Additive Season and Trend (BFAST and breakpoints, trend, and seasonal components are combined in a binomial probability model to distinguish between cleared and stable forest. We found that the addition of seasonality and trend information improves the change model performance compared to using breakpoints alone. We also demonstrate the value of considering forest type in disturbance mapping in comparison to the more common approach that combines all forest types into a single generalised forest class. By taking a generalised forest approach, there is less control over the error distribution in each forest type. Dry-deciduous and evergreen forests are especially sensitive to error imbalances using a generalised forest model i.e., clearances were underestimated in evergreen forest, and overestimated in dry-deciduous forest. This suggests that forest type needs to be considered in time series change mapping, especially in heterogeneous forest regions. Our approach builds towards improving large-area monitoring of forest-diverse regions such as Southeast Asia. The findings of this study should also be transferable across optical sensors and are therefore relevant for the future availability of dense time series for the tropics at higher spatial resolutions.

  1. Evaluation of Internet-based dengue query data: Google Dengue Trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Tave Gluskin

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Dengue is a common and growing problem worldwide, with an estimated 70-140 million cases per year. Traditional, healthcare-based, government-implemented dengue surveillance is resource intensive and slow. As global Internet use has increased, novel, Internet-based disease monitoring tools have emerged. Google Dengue Trends (GDT uses near real-time search query data to create an index of dengue incidence that is a linear proxy for traditional surveillance. Studies have shown that GDT correlates highly with dengue incidence in multiple countries on a large spatial scale. This study addresses the heterogeneity of GDT at smaller spatial scales, assessing its accuracy at the state-level in Mexico and identifying factors that are associated with its accuracy. We used Pearson correlation to estimate the association between GDT and traditional dengue surveillance data for Mexico at the national level and for 17 Mexican states. Nationally, GDT captured approximately 83% of the variability in reported cases over the 9 study years. The correlation between GDT and reported cases varied from state to state, capturing anywhere from 1% of the variability in Baja California to 88% in Chiapas, with higher accuracy in states with higher dengue average annual incidence. A model including annual average maximum temperature, precipitation, and their interaction accounted for 81% of the variability in GDT accuracy between states. This climate model was the best indicator of GDT accuracy, suggesting that GDT works best in areas with intense transmission, particularly where local climate is well suited for transmission. Internet accessibility (average ∼ 36% did not appear to affect GDT accuracy. While GDT seems to be a less robust indicator of local transmission in areas of low incidence and unfavorable climate, it may indicate cases among travelers in those areas. Identifying the strengths and limitations of novel surveillance is critical for these types of data to

  2. Evaluation of Internet-based dengue query data: Google Dengue Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gluskin, Rebecca Tave; Johansson, Michael A; Santillana, Mauricio; Brownstein, John S

    2014-02-01

    Dengue is a common and growing problem worldwide, with an estimated 70-140 million cases per year. Traditional, healthcare-based, government-implemented dengue surveillance is resource intensive and slow. As global Internet use has increased, novel, Internet-based disease monitoring tools have emerged. Google Dengue Trends (GDT) uses near real-time search query data to create an index of dengue incidence that is a linear proxy for traditional surveillance. Studies have shown that GDT correlates highly with dengue incidence in multiple countries on a large spatial scale. This study addresses the heterogeneity of GDT at smaller spatial scales, assessing its accuracy at the state-level in Mexico and identifying factors that are associated with its accuracy. We used Pearson correlation to estimate the association between GDT and traditional dengue surveillance data for Mexico at the national level and for 17 Mexican states. Nationally, GDT captured approximately 83% of the variability in reported cases over the 9 study years. The correlation between GDT and reported cases varied from state to state, capturing anywhere from 1% of the variability in Baja California to 88% in Chiapas, with higher accuracy in states with higher dengue average annual incidence. A model including annual average maximum temperature, precipitation, and their interaction accounted for 81% of the variability in GDT accuracy between states. This climate model was the best indicator of GDT accuracy, suggesting that GDT works best in areas with intense transmission, particularly where local climate is well suited for transmission. Internet accessibility (average ∼ 36%) did not appear to affect GDT accuracy. While GDT seems to be a less robust indicator of local transmission in areas of low incidence and unfavorable climate, it may indicate cases among travelers in those areas. Identifying the strengths and limitations of novel surveillance is critical for these types of data to be used to make

  3. A comparison of heat wave climatologies and trends in China based on multiple definitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Qinglong; Jiang, Zhihong; Kong, Lei; Wu, Zhiwei; Bao, Yutao; Kang, Shichang; Pepin, Nick

    2016-08-01

    Heat waves (HWs) can have disastrous impacts on human activities and natural systems, and are one of the current foci of scientific research, particularly in the context of global warming. However, there is no standard definition of a HW, which makes assessment of temporal trends a challenge. In this study, based on daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature, and relative humidity datasets from China Meteorological Administration, the patterns, trends and variations of HW in China during 1961-2014 are investigated. Sixteen previously published HW indices (HIs) are calculated, which are divided into two types using relative and absolute threshold temperatures, respectively. During 1961-2014, both relative and absolute threshold HIs show the highest number of HW in Jianghua and South China, geographically consistent with the climate characteristics of China. The majority of HIs shows negative/positive trends of HW days before/after 1990 over the whole of China, but especially in Jianghua and South China, which reflects rapid warming since 1990. There are significant correlations among different HIs in the same type (both absolute and relative), but correlations are weak between relative and absolute threshold HIs. Because relative and absolute HIs show contrasting trends, the choice of HI is therefore critical for future analysis

  4. Emerging medical informatics research trends detection based on MeSH terms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyu, Peng-Hui; Yao, Qiang; Mao, Jin; Zhang, Shi-Jing

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study is to analyze the research trends of medical informatics over the last 12 years. A new method based on MeSH terms was proposed to identify emerging topics and trends of medical informatics research. Informetric methods and visualization technologies were applied to investigate research trends of medical informatics. The metric of perspective factor (PF) embedding MeSH terms was appropriately employed to assess the perspective quality for journals. The emerging MeSH terms have changed dramatically over the last 12 years, identifying two stages of medical informatics: the "medical imaging stage" and the "medical informatics stage". The focus of medical informatics has shifted from acquisition and storage of healthcare data by integrating computational, informational, cognitive and organizational sciences to semantic analysis for problem solving and clinical decision-making. About 30 core journals were determined by Bradford's Law in the last 3 years in this area. These journals, with high PF values, have relative high perspective quality and lead the trend of medical informatics.

  5. Analysis of trends and dominant periodicities in drought variables in India: A wavelet transform based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Nitin; Gupta, Divya; Suryavanshi, Shakti; Adamowski, Jan; Madramootoo, Chandra A.

    2016-12-01

    In this study, seasonal trends as well as dominant and significant periods of variability of drought variables were analyzed for 30 rainfall subdivisions in India over 141 years (1871-2012). Standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used as a meteorological drought indicator, and various drought variables (monsoon SPI, non-monsoon SPI, yearly SPI, annual drought duration, annual drought severity and annual drought peak) were analyzed. Discrete wavelet transform was used in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall test to analyze trends and dominant periodicities associated with the drought variables. Furthermore, continuous wavelet transform (CWT) based global wavelet spectrum was used to analyze significant periods of variability associated with the drought variables. From the trend analysis, we observed that over the second half of the 20th century, drought occurrences increased significantly in subdivisions of Northeast and Central India. In both short-term (2-8 years) and decadal (16-32 years) periodicities, the drought variables were found to influence the trend. However, CWT analysis indicated that the dominant periodic components were not significant for most of the geographical subdivisions. Although inter-annual and inter-decadal periodic components play an important role, they may not completely explain the variability associated with the drought variables across the country.

  6. An Assessment on Influences of Crises on Zhangjiajie Tourism: Analysis Based on the Tourism Background Trend Line in High Time Resolution%危机事件对张家界旅游影响评价——基于本底线模型的高分辨率分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张铁生; 孙根年; 马丽君

    2012-01-01

    Using the statistics data of Zhangjiajie tourism from 200l to 2011, the four background trend lines of inbound and domestic tourist arrivals and tourism income were found on the basis of the theory of natural trend curve. This paper analyzes the influences of crises on Zhangjiajie inbound and domestic tourism by using monthly index on the tourism background trend line in high time resolution. The results show that the tourism industry is a sensitive and powerful self recovery ability industry. The tourism industry can always quick rebound on the heels of the crisis. In the end the tourism background trend line always pulled concave vale back, as the lifeline of tourism development. The results implied that Zhangjiajie has an obvious anti periodicity effect and rebound feature on the heels of crisis, science it has become well-known at home and abroad as a tourist destination. With the rapid economical development, domestic tourism has strong ascending inertia and rebound ability on the heels of crisis, but inbound tourism is more vulnerable. As international crisis, "SARS" and "international financial crisis" have great influence on Zhangjiajie tourism, and they have a long cycle. However, "Natural disaster" has slight effect on the Zhangjiajie tourism. The study provided a scientific basis for establishing crisis advance warning system and management system.%根据张家界2001--2011年旅游统计数据,建立入境旅游客流量及旅游外汇收入、国内旅游客流量及旅游收入四条本底趋势线,引入月指数的概念,基于本底线模型的高分辨率分析危机事件对张家界旅游的影响。研究表明,旅游业既是一个敏感性产业,又是一个自我恢复力强的产业,在危机之后往往能强力反弹,旅游本底趋势线作为旅游业发展的生命线,始终能够把危机形成的凹型谷吸引回来。研究认为,张家界作为国内外知名品牌景区,具有抗周期性和后危机反弹的

  7. Share price trend based on analysis of investor’s online activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihail Dumitru SACALĂ

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The desire of modeling the influence coming from behavioral economics, representing mostly qualitative variables, requires new approaches to quantify this influence. In this paper we present an analytical method for determining the direction of the share future return using an aggregate indicator calculated based exclusively on the trend of registered variables from investor’s online activity. This online activity refers to the number and content of messages posted by investors on shares analysis dedicated web blogs.

  8. The road to success. Long-term prognosis for persons living with HIV in Denmark - time trends and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohse, Nicolai

    2016-02-01

    detection practice. Once diagnosed, getting the full benefit of modern HIV care requires access to a good healthcare system. We compared temporal trends in quality and quantity of ART introduction in Den-mark and Greenland. Despite similar levels of health worker education and economic resources, ART implementation and mortality decline in Greenland lacked several years behind Denmark. The study reminded us that although economy may be a prerequisite for implementing an effective HIV care system, it is certainly not all it takes. The nationwide nature of the Danish HIV Cohort Study also allowed us to study a number of time trends at the population level. Despite what was feared, we found that the prevalence of triple-drug class virological failure (TCF) seemed to have stabilized after 2000; that the incidence rates of drug resistance acquisition were decreasing during 1999-2005; and that the prevalence of potential transmitters of drug-resistant HIV decreased during 1997-2004. We also looked at some of the consequences of virological failure and drug resistance and found that even modest levels of viraemia were associated with a high risk of future failure and death, and that in persons who have experienced TCF, the number and pattern of resistance mutations were independent predictors of death. Hence, despite the overall positive trends in virological failure and drug-resistance development at the population level, our findings underline the crucial importance of always having an effective treatment option available for the individual patient with drug-resistant virus. As mortality was declining for persons with access to ART and good HIV care, it became important to know how long persons with HIV could expect to live compared to the general population. We projected long-term survival and found that a 25-year old person with HIV and without hepatitis C virus (HCV) co-infection had a 50 per cent chance of surviving another 39 years, only 12.2 years less than a person in a

  9. EPQ model for imperfect production processes with rework and random preventive machine time for deteriorating items and trended demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shah Nita H.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Economic production quantity (EPQ model has been analyzed for trended demand, and units in inventory are subject to constant rate. The system allows rework of imperfect units, and preventive maintenance time is random. A search method is used to study the model. The proposed methodology is validated by a numerical example. The sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the critical model parameters. It is observed that the rate of change of demand, and the deterioration rate have a significant impact on the decision variables and the total cost of an inventory system. The model is highly sensitive to the production and demand rate.

  10. Time trends of viral meningitis among young adults in Israel: 1978-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Hagai; Mimouni, Daniel; Zurel-Farber, Anat; Zahavi, Alon; Molina-Hazan, Vered; Bar-Zeev, Yael; Huerta-Hartal, Michael

    2014-07-01

    Viral meningitis (VM) is a medical condition of public health concern, as it is a common sporadic and epidemic illness. However, there is limited data on the epidemiology of VM. The purpose of this study was to analyze long-term and seasonal trends of VM in a young adult military population. VM is a obligatory notifiable disease in the Israel Defense Forces. For the present study, the archives of the Army Health Branch were reviewed for all cases of VM from January 1, 1978 to December 31, 2012, and the annual, monthly, and seasonal rates were calculated. The annual incidence over the 35-year period showed a high peak every 3-5 years followed by a quiescent period of 2-3 years, reaching as high as 58.4 per 100,000 in 1980 and as low as 3.0 per 100,000 in 2005. This cyclic pattern has diminished over the last decade, reflected by a decline in mean incidence (10.46 per 100,000 in 2003-2012 compared to 19.79 per 100,000 in 1978-2002). Average monthly rates ranged from 1.0 cases per 100,000 soldiers in January/February to 2.2 per 100,000 in July/August. The difference in average rates between winter (1.2 cases per 100,000) and summer (1.9 cases per 100,000) was statistically significant (p viral causes of meningitis may spare patients unnecessary treatment while prompting the introduction of public health interventions and control measures, especially in crowded settings.

  11. Smart handover based on fuzzy logic trend in IEEE802.11 mobile IPv6 networks

    CERN Document Server

    Lim, Joanne Mun-Yee

    2012-01-01

    A properly designed handoff algorithm is essential in reducing the connection quality deterioration when a mobile node moves across the cell boundaries. Therefore, to improve communication quality, we identified three goals in our paper. The first goal is to minimize unnecessary handovers and increase communication quality by reducing misrepresentations of RSSI readings due to multipath and shadow effect with the use of additional parameters. The second goal is to control the handover decisions depending on the users' mobility by utilizing location factors as one of the input parameters in a fuzzy logic handover algorithm. The third goal is to minimize false handover alarms caused by sudden fluctuations of parameters by monitoring the trend of fuzzy logic outputs for a period of time before making handover decision. In this paper, we use RSSI, speed and distance as the input decision criteria of a handover trigger algorithm by means of fuzzy logic. The fuzzy logic output trend is monitored for a period of tim...

  12. Determining the impacts of time-based logistics strategies in the Dutch food industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muilerman, G.; van der Hoorn, A.I.J.M.; van der Heijden, R.

    2005-01-01

    The trend towards logistics acceleration and increasing time-sensitivity can be discerned in numerous industry sectors. The associated logistics concepts are called time-based strategies. In this paper, the logistics impacts of these strategies are analysed on the basis of case studies within the Du

  13. Use of a multistage model to predict time trends in smoking induced lung cancer.

    OpenAIRE

    Swartz, J B

    1992-01-01

    STUDY OBJECTIVE--The aims were to use a mathematical model to predict the time course of smoking induced lung cancer, and to investigate to what extent the most recent increases in lung cancer mortality are due to cigarette smoking. DESIGN--A mathematical model was developed and solved by simulation to construct detailed smoking histories of the US white male population given available prevalence data by age and cohort. A multistage carcinogenesis model was used to predict the time course of ...

  14. Understanding coastal change using shoreline trend analysis supported by cluster-based segmentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burningham, Helene; French, Jon

    2017-04-01

    Shoreline change analysis is a well defined and widely adopted approach for the examination of trends in coastal position over different timescales. Conventional shoreline change metrics are best suited to resolving progressive quasi-linear trends. However, coastal change is often highly non-linear and may exhibit complex behaviour including trend-reversals. This paper advocates a secondary level of investigation based on a cluster analysis to resolve a more complete range of coastal behaviours. Cluster-based segmentation of shoreline behaviour is demonstrated with reference to a regional-scale case study of the Suffolk coast, eastern UK. An exceptionally comprehensive suite of shoreline datasets covering the period 1881 to 2015 is used to examine both centennial- and intra-decadal scale change in shoreline position. Analysis of shoreline position changes at a 100 m alongshore interval along 74 km of coastline reveals a number of distinct behaviours. The suite of behaviours varies with the timescale of analysis. There is little evidence of regionally coherent shoreline change. Rather, the analyses reveal a complex interaction between met-ocean forcing, inherited geological and geomorphological controls, and evolving anthropogenic intervention that drives changing foci of erosion and deposition.

  15. The main trends of dynamics of incomes of Russians in times of economic crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. L. Petryakova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A research objective which result was this article is the analysis of dynamics of the income of families during the last economic crisis in Russia and influence of change of the standard of living on performance by a family of the main functions, first of all reproductive, zhizneokhranitelny and educational. Now quite steady growth of birth rate, improvement of the indicators characterizing family trouble (refusals of the born children, deprivation of the parental rights, deviant behavior of children and teenagers and health of children and teenagers is observed, however, as a result of decrease in the standard of living, increase in employment of parents, violation of this favorable tendency is possible. The research is based on the analysis of statistical and sociological information, including results of polls of the population, in him the research of ranks of dynamics, graphic and tabular methods is applied. In article sources of the income of the population, first of all – the salary and social payments exerting the greatest impact on the level of the income in general are considered. On the basis of the carried-out analysis the main tendencies characterizing extent of fall of the income of families with children proceeding from this research are formulated, it is possible to speak about increase of needs of families in measures of economic support. However, at the same time becomes the negative moment on the one hand, extremely low knowledge of families of already available measures of such help, and with another – their low assessment and unwillingness to participate in these or those programs offered by the state. In turn it is the factor worsening financial position of families too. High prosperity, material security still (as well as the 90th years, as well as at the beginning of this century are on an equal basis with a family and children the leading value of Russians. It is connected, first of all

  16. Time trends in social differences in nutrition habits of a Lithuanian population: 1994-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kriaucioniene Vilma

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During the post-communist transition period, political, economic, and social changes affected the lifestyles of the Lithuanian population, including their nutritional habits. However, people of lower socio-economic position were more vulnerable to these changes. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the trends in selected food habits of the Lithuanian adult population by their level of education and place of residence from 1994 to 2010. Methods The data were obtained from nine biannual cross-sectional postal surveys of Lithuanian health behaviours, beginning in 1994. Each survey used a randomly selected nationally representative sample of 3000 inhabitants aged 20-64 drawn from the population register. In total, 7358 men and 9796 women participated in these surveys. Questions about food consumption were included within all health behaviour questionnaires. Results During the transition period, use of vegetable oil in cooking and the frequency of consumption of fresh vegetables increased, use of butter on bread decreased, and the proportion of women drinking high-fat milk declined. Lithuanians with higher education reported more frequent use of vegetable oil in cooking as well as daily consumption of fresh vegetables than those with a lower level of education. Consumption of high-fat milk was inversely associated with educational background. In addition, the proportion of persons spreading butter on bread increased with higher education level. The greatest urban-rural difference was observed in high-fat milk consumption. The increase in the use of vegetable oil in cooking, and the reduction of spreading butter on bread was more evident among less educated and rural inhabitants. Meanwhile, a greater proportion of the rural population, compared to urban, reduced their use of butter on bread. Daily consumption of fresh vegetables increased most among highly educated Lithuanians. Conclusions The data from our study indicate

  17. Time trends and correlates of late presentation for HIV care in Northern Greece during the decade 2000 to 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simeon Metallidis

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: The aim of our study was to assess the extent of late presentation for HIV care in Northern Greece during the period 2000 to 2010 and to explore correlations aiming to provide guidance for future interventions. Methods: HIV-positive patients with no prior history of HIV care at presentation and with a CD4 T cell count within three months from the first confirmatory Western blot result were eligible for this study. Late presentation and advanced HIV disease were defined in concordance with the recommendations of the European Late Presenter Consensus working group. Time trends in presentation status and risk factors linked to late presentation and advanced HIV disease were identified in multivariable logistic regression models. Additional analyses after multiple imputation of missing values were performed to assess the robustness of our findings. Results: The status at presentation was evaluated for 631 eligible HIV-positive individuals. Overall, 52.5% (95% CI: 48.6% to 56.4% of patients presented late for HIV care and 31.2% (95% CI: 27.6% to 34.8% presented with advanced HIV disease. Time trends were consistent with an improvement in the presentation status of our study population (p<0.001. Risk factors associated with late presentation in multivariable logistic regression were intravenous drug use, heterosexual HIV transmission, immigrant status and age at diagnosis. Conclusions: Despite the trend for improvement, a significant proportion of newly diagnosed HIV-positive patients present late for care. Targeted interventions with focus on social groups such as the elderly, persons who inject drugs, immigrants and individuals at risk for heterosexual HIV transmission are mandated.

  18. Incidence and Trends in Psychopathology Symptoms over Time in Adults with Severe to Profound Intellectual Disability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horovitz, Max; Matson, Johnny L.; Sipes, Megan; Shoemaker, Mary; Belva, Brian; Bamburg, Jay W.

    2011-01-01

    Individuals with intellectual disability (ID) have a high risk for developing comorbid psychopathology. While researchers have shown that symptoms of psychopathology remain relatively stable in children with ID over time, little research has been conducted to demonstrate symptom stability for adults with ID. Incidence of psychopathology symptoms…

  19. Model-Based Attribution of High-Resolution Streamflow Trends in Two Alpine Basins of Western Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christoph Kormann

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Several trend studies have shown that hydrological conditions are changing considerably in the Alpine region. However, the reasons for these changes are only partially understood and trend analyses alone are not able to shed much light. Hydrological modelling is one possible way to identify the trend drivers, i.e., to attribute the detected streamflow trends, given that the model captures all important processes causing the trends. We modelled the hydrological conditions for two alpine catchments in western Austria (a large, mostly lower-altitude catchment with wide valley plains and a nested high-altitude, glaciated headwater catchment with the distributed, physically-oriented WaSiM-ETH model, which includes a dynamical glacier module. The model was calibrated in a transient mode, i.e., not only on several standard goodness measures and glacier extents, but also in such a way that the simulated streamflow trends fit with the observed ones during the investigation period 1980 to 2007. With this approach, it was possible to separate streamflow components, identify the trends of flow components, and study their relation to trends in atmospheric variables. In addition to trends in annual averages, highly resolved trends for each Julian day were derived, since they proved powerful in an earlier, data-based attribution study. We were able to show that annual and highly resolved trends can be modelled sufficiently well. The results provide a holistic, year-round picture of the drivers of alpine streamflow changes: Higher-altitude catchments are strongly affected by earlier firn melt and snowmelt in spring and increased ice melt throughout the ablation season. Changes in lower-altitude areas are mostly caused by earlier and lower snowmelt volumes. All highly resolved trends in streamflow and its components show an explicit similarity to the local temperature trends. Finally, results indicate that evapotranspiration has been increasing in the lower

  20. Time trends in primary-care morbidity, hospitalization and mortality due to pneumonia.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gageldonk-Lafeber, A.B. van; Bogaerts, M.A.H.; Verheij, R.; Sande, M.A.B. van der

    2009-01-01

    Most studies reporting pneumonia morbidity are restricted to hospitalized patients, although only a minority of pneumonia patients are admitted to hospital. To get a better understanding of the burden of disease in the general population, we conducted a population-based retrospective study to examin

  1. Time-frequency methods for trend removal in electrochemical noise data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Homborg, A.M.; Tinga, T.; Zhang, X.; Westing, E.P.M. van; Oonincx, P.J.; Wit, J.H.W. de; Mol, J.M.C.

    2012-01-01

    Electrochemical current and potential noise signals in many cases exhibit a DC drift that should be removed prior to further data analysis. The theoretical ability of wavelet analysis and empirical mode decomposition to effectively remove only the DC drift component is evaluated based on their mutua

  2. Time trends in the incidence of eating disorders : A primary care study in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Son, Gabrielle E.; van Hoeken, Daphne; Bartelds, Aad I. M.; van Furth, Eric F.; Hoek, Hans W.

    2006-01-01

    Objective: This Dutch epidemiological study used primary care-based data to examine changes in the incidence of eating disorders in the 1990s compared to the 1980s. Method: A nationwide network of general practitioners, serving a representative sample of the total Dutch population, recorded newly di

  3. Helicobacter pylori antibiotic resistance in a Dutch region: trends over time.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, M.J.R.; Hendrikse, L.; Boer, S.Y. de; Bosboom, R.; Boer, W.A. de; Laheij, R.J.F.; Jansen, J.B.M.J.

    2006-01-01

    AIM: Most patients treated for H. pylori infection receive empirical therapy based on epidemiological data of antibiotic resistance. However, previous European studies indicate that resistance patterns may be changing. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of primary cla

  4. Time trends of thyroid cancer incidence in Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heidenreich, W F [GSF-National Research Centre for Environment and Health, Institute for Radiation Protection, 85764 Neuherberg (Germany); Bogdanova, T I [Ukrainian Research Institute of Endocrinology and Metabolism, 254114 Kiev (Ukraine); Biryukov, A G [Ukrainian Research Institute of Endocrinology and Metabolism, 254114 Kiev (Ukraine); Tronko, N D [Ukrainian Research Institute of Endocrinology and Metabolism, 254114 Kiev (Ukraine)

    2004-09-01

    The rate of childhood thyroid cancer incidence observed in northern Ukraine during the period 1986-1998 is described as a function of time-since-exposure, age-at-exposure, and sex. Conclusions are drawn for the excess absolute risk per dose: after a minimal latency period of about three years it shows a linear increase with time-since-exposure for at least nine years. It is roughly constant in age-at-exposure, up to 15 years. For girls exposed very young it is about a factor 2 larger than for boys. For children exposed at age 16-18 this ratio increases to about 5. The thyroids of young children are not more sensitive to radiation dose than those of older ones in absolute risk in northern Ukraine in the currently used data set. As the background is increasing with age, a constant absolute risk gives a decreasing relative risk.

  5. Time trends, ethnicity and risk factors for eczema in New Zealand children: ISAAC Phase Three

    OpenAIRE

    Clayton, Tadd; Asher, M Innes; Crane, Julian; Ellwood, Philippa; Mackay, Richard; Mitchell, Edwin A; Moyes, Chris D; Pattemore, Philip; Pearce, Neil; Stewart, Alistair W.

    2013-01-01

    Background Eczema is a common chronic disease which has significant morbidity and costs for children and their families. Phase One (1993) of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) found a high prevalence of symptoms of eczema in New Zealand. Objective In Phase Three (2001-3) we aimed to answer these three questions: Is the prevalence of eczema changing over time?; Are there ethnic differences in prevalence?; and What are the risk factors for eczema? Methods Five ...

  6. Real-Time Analysis of African Political Violence, February 2013 (Conflict Trends, Number 11)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-01

    actors in Kenyan vio- lence. Over the past 17 years, Kenya police and military forces par- ticipated in far higher rates of violence than noted before...protests occurring are not related: in Kakamega, traders held protests over market stall dis- tribution in the area; in Kisumu, internal ODM protests...ACLED’s real-time data collection, but also likely to increased actors active within the Kenyan po- litical environment. This, coupled with the in

  7. Time trends and latitude dependence of uveal and cutaneous malignant melanoma induced by solar radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moan, J.; Setlow, R.; Cicarma, E.; Porojnicu, A. C.; Grant, W. B.; Juzeniene, A.

    2010-01-01

    In order to evaluate the role of solar radiation in uveal melanoma etiology, the time and latitude dependency of the incidence rates of this melanoma type were studied in comparison with those of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). Norway and several other countries with Caucasian populations were included. There is a marked north - south gradient of the incidence rates of CMM in Norway, with three times higher rates in the south than in the north. No such gradient is found for uveal melanoma. Similar findings have been published for CMM in other Caucasian populations, with the exception of Europe as a whole. In most populations the ratios of uveal melanoma incidence rates to those of CMM tend to decrease with increasing CMM rates. This is also true for Europe, in spite of the fact that in this region there is an inverse latitude gradient of CMM, with higher rates in the north than in the south. In Norway the incidence rates of CMM have increased until about 1990 but have been constant, or even decreased (for young people) after that time, indicating constant or decreasing sun exposure. The uveal melanoma rates have been increasing after 1990. In most other populations the incidence rates of CMM have been increasing until recently while those of uveal melanoma have been decreasing. These data generally support the assumption that uveal melanomas are not generated by ultraviolet (UV) radiation and that solar UV, via its role in vitamin D photosynthesis, may have a protective effect.

  8. Status and trend of NO2 pollution in Indian cities from space based remote sensing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ARYA RAMACHANDRAN NAIR

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available NO2 pollution in Indian cities is a well-known problem requiring adequate analysis and implementation of appropriate control strategies. Advanced space-borne instrument ‘ SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY(SCI AMACHY ’- measurements are proved to be helpful in estimating the tropospheric concentration of NO2 which can meaningfully relate to the ground level pollution. Here, these satellite data are explored to analyse the status and trend in NO2 pollution at ten selected metro cities of India. The appropriate geospatial and statistical methods are employed for the processing and analysis of data. The observed results indicated the status of NO2 pollution in these cities as well as its trend throughout the period 2002 to 2012. This study reports, statistically significant increasing trends in NO2 level at all these cities except one. Also, the influence of climatic seasons on modulating the ambient NO2 level is reflected in all cities. For ensuring the validity of results based on satellite data, a comparison is made between the SCIAMACHY NO2 and ground stations measurements which yielded an agreeable correlation of 0.5.This study demonstrates the applicability of satellite remote sensing for urban air quality monitoring and suggest its usability for other parts of the world where ground station measurements are scarce or not available.

  9. Satellite Image Time Series Decomposition Based on EEMD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun-long Kong

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Satellite Image Time Series (SITS have recently been of great interest due to the emerging remote sensing capabilities for Earth observation. Trend and seasonal components are two crucial elements of SITS. In this paper, a novel framework of SITS decomposition based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD is proposed. EEMD is achieved by sifting an ensemble of adaptive orthogonal components called Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs. EEMD is noise-assisted and overcomes the drawback of mode mixing in conventional Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD. Inspired by these advantages, the aim of this work is to employ EEMD to decompose SITS into IMFs and to choose relevant IMFs for the separation of seasonal and trend components. In a series of simulations, IMFs extracted by EEMD achieved a clear representation with physical meaning. The experimental results of 16-day compositions of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, and Global Environment Monitoring Index (GEMI time series with disturbance illustrated the effectiveness and stability of the proposed approach to monitoring tasks, such as applications for the detection of abrupt changes.

  10. Are time-trends of smoking among pregnant immigrant women in Sweden determined by cultural or socioeconomic factors?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eek Frida

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The widening socioeconomic gap in smoking during pregnancy remains a challenge to the Swedish antenatal care services. However, the influence of cultural factors in explaining the socioeconomic differences in smoking during pregnancy is not clear among the immigrant women. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the development of smoking prevalence among pregnant immigrant women in Sweden followed the trajectory which could be expected from the stages of the global smoking epidemic model in the women's countries of origin, or not. Methods Delivery data on pregnancies in Sweden from 1982 to 2001 was collected from the Swedish Medical Birth Registry. From a total of 2,224,469 pregnant women during this period, all immigrant pregnant women (n = 234,731 were selected to this study. A logistic regression analysis and attributable fraction were used to investigate the association between smoking during pregnancy and the socioeconomic differences among immigrant women. Results Overall, the prevalence of smoking among pregnant immigrant women decreased from 30.3% in 1982 to 11.0% in 2001, albeit with remarkable differences between educational levels and country of origin. The greatest decline of absolute prevalence was recorded among low educated women (27,9% and among other Nordic countries (17,9%. In relative terms, smoking inequalities increased between educational levels regardless of country of origin. The odds ratios for low educational level for women from other Nordic countries increased from 4.9 (95% CI 4.4-5.4 in 1982 to 13.4 (95% CI 11.2-16.2 in 2001, as compared to women with high education in the same group. Further, the total attributable fraction for educational difference increased from 55% in 1982 to 62% in 2001, demonstrating the strong effect of educational attainment. Conclusions Our hypothesis that the socioeconomic time trend of smoking based on the stage of the world wide tobacco epidemic model

  11. Climate trends and behaviour of drought indices based on precipitation and evapotranspiration in Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Paulo

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Distinction between drought and aridity is crucial to understand water scarcity processes. Drought indices are used for drought identification and drought severity characterisation. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI are the most known drought indices. In this study, they are compared with the modified PDSI for Mediterranean conditions (MedPDSI and the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI. MedPDSI results from the soil water balance of an olive crop, thus real evapotranspiration is considered, while SPEI uses potential (climatic evapotranspiration. Similarly to the SPI, SPEI can be computed at various time scales. Aiming at understanding possible impacts of climate change, prior to compare the drought indices, a trend analysis relative to precipitation and temperature in 27 weather stations of Portugal was performed for the period 1941 to 2006. A trend for temperature increase was observed for some weather stations and trends for decreasing precipitation in March and increasing in October were also observed for some locations. Comparisons of the SPI and SPEI at 9- and 12-month time scales, the PDSI and MedPDSI were performed for the same stations and period. SPI and SPEI produce similar results for the same time scales concerning drought occurrence and severity. PDSI and MedPDSI correlate well between them and the same happened for SPI and SPEI. PDSI and MedPDSI identify more severe droughts than SPI or SPEI and identify drought occurrence earlier than these indices. This behaviour is likely to be related with the fact that a water balance is performed with PDSI and MedPDSI, which better approaches the supply-demand balance.

  12. Bayesian Inference for Time Trends in Parameter Values: Case Study for the Ageing PSA Network of the European Commission

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dana L. Kelly; Albert Malkhasyan

    2010-06-01

    There is a nearly ubiquitous assumption in PSA that parameter values are at least piecewise-constant in time. As a result, Bayesian inference tends to incorporate many years of plant operation, over which there have been significant changes in plant operational and maintenance practices, plant management, etc. These changes can cause significant changes in parameter values over time; however, failure to perform Bayesian inference in the proper time-dependent framework can mask these changes. Failure to question the assumption of constant parameter values, and failure to perform Bayesian inference in the proper time-dependent framework were noted as important issues in NUREG/CR-6813, performed for the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards in 2003. That report noted that “industry lacks tools to perform time-trend analysis with Bayesian updating.” This paper describes an application of time-dependent Bayesian inference methods developed for the European Commission Ageing PSA Network. These methods utilize open-source software, implementing Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The paper also illustrates the development of a generic prior distribution, which incorporates multiple sources of generic data via weighting factors that address differences in key influences, such as vendor, component boundaries, conditions of the operating environment, etc.

  13. Trend extraction of rail corrugation measured dynamically based on the relevant low-frequency principal components reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yanfu; Liu, Hongli; Ma, Ziji

    2016-10-01

    Rail corrugation dynamic measurement techniques are critical to guarantee transport security and guide rail maintenance. During the inspection process, low-frequency trends caused by rail fluctuation are usually superimposed on rail corrugation and seriously affect the assessment of rail maintenance quality. In order to extract and remove the nonlinear and non-stationary trends from original mixed signals, a hybrid model based ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and modified principal component analysis (MPCA) is proposed in this paper. Compared with the existing de-trending methods based on EMD, this method first considers low-frequency intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) thought to be underlying trend components that maybe contain some unrelated components, such as white noise and low-frequency signal itself, and proposes to use PCA to accurately extract the pure trends from the IMFs containing multiple components. On the other hand, due to the energy contribution ratio between trends and mixed signals is prior unknown, and the principal components (PCs) decomposed by PCA are arranged in order of energy reduction without considering frequency distribution, the proposed method modifies traditional PCA and just selects relevant low-frequency PCs to reconstruct the trends based on the zero-crossing numbers (ZCN) of each PC. Extensive tests are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show the proposed EEMD-PCA-ZCN is an effective tool for trend extraction of rail corrugation measured dynamically.

  14. Time trends of human papillomavirus types in invasive cervical cancer, from 1940 to 2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alemany, Laia; de Sanjosé, Silvia; Tous, Sara; Quint, Wim; Vallejos, Carlos; Shin, Hai-Rim; Bravo, Luis E; Alonso, Patricia; Lima, Marcus A; Guimerà, Núria; Klaustermeier, Joellen; Llombart-Bosch, Antonio; Kasamatsu, Elena; Tatti, Silvio A; Felix, Ana; Molina, Carla; Velasco, Julio; Lloveras, Belen; Clavero, Omar; Lerma, Enrique; Laco, Jan; Bravo, Ignacio G; Guarch, Rosa; Pelayo, Adela; Ordi, Jaume; Andújar, Miguel; Sanchez, Gloria I; Castellsagué, Xavier; Muñoz, Nubia; Bosch, F Xavier

    2014-07-01

    Contribution over time of human papillomavirus (HPV) types in human cancers has been poorly documented. Such data is fundamental to measure current HPV vaccines impact in the years to come. We estimated the HPV type-specific distribution in a large international series of invasive cervical cancer (ICC) over 70 years prior to vaccination. Paraffin embedded ICC cases diagnosed between 1940 and 2007 were retrieved from eleven countries in Central-South America, Asia and Europe. Included countries reported to have low-medium cervical cancer screening uptake. Information on age at and year of diagnosis was collected from medical records. After histological confirmation, HPV DNA detection was performed by SPF-10/DEIA/LiPA25 (version1). Logistic regression models were used for estimating the adjusted relative contributions (RC) of HPV16 and of HPV18 over time. Among 4,771 HPV DNA positive ICC cases, HPV16 and HPV18 were the two most common HPVs in all the decades with no statistically significant variations of their adjusted-RC from 1940-59 to 2000-07 (HPV16-from 61.5 to 62.1%, and HPV18-from 6.9 to 7.2%). As well, the RC of other HPV types did not varied over time. In the stratified analysis by histology, HPV16 adjusted-RC significantly increased across decades in adenocarcinomas. Regarding age, cases associated to either HPV16, 18 or 45 were younger than those with other HPV types in all the evaluated decades. The observed stability on the HPV type distribution predicts a high and stable impact of HPV vaccination in reducing the cervical cancer burden in future vaccinated generations.

  15. 基于时变市场分数的状态依赖自信的金融市场动态模型%A Model of Financial Market Trend with State-dependent Confidence Based on Time-varying Market Fraction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王婧

    2015-01-01

    在简单的金融市场动态模型中,风险证券的价格是由做市商依赖于异质交易者的超额需求来制定的. 异质交易者即基本面分析者与技术分析者,他们的需求依赖于未来价格的不同期望:技术分析者采用几何衰减过程形成期望,而基本面分析者被假定了解经济环境并形成相应的信念.本文通过引入时变市场分数,建立三维动力学模型,分析其稳定区域及产生的分支,并讨论主要参数对模型稳定性的影响,得到影响市场稳定性的因素.%In a simple model of financial market trend, the prices of risk securities are determined by market makers who depend on the excess demand of heterogeneous traders. The heterogeneous traders include basic situation analysts and technology analysts, whose de-mands depend on different expectations about future prices:the former are assumed to know the economic environment and form their be-liefs accordingly, while the latter form their expectations using geometric attenuation process. This paper introduced the time-varying market fraction, built the three-dimensional dynamical system, analyzed its stability region and branches, and discussed the influence of key parameters on the stability of the model, so as to obtain the influencing factors of market stability.

  16. Time-space trends in Swedish divorce behaviour, 1911-1974.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandström, Glenn

    2011-01-01

    This study examines how the divorce rates in Sweden have varied over time and across different geographical areas during the period 1911-1974, and how these variations can be connected to the political, socio-economic and cultural development in Sweden. The analysis provides empirical support for the hypothesis that increased divorce rates have been the result of changes in the structural conditions that determine the degree of economic interdependence between spouses. There is a strong connection between the degree of urbanization and the divorce rate on a regional level for the entire research period. The statistical analysis of the regional data indicates that these patterns are connected to the more diversified economy that has developed in urban settings, in the form of a more qualified labour market and higher wages for females. These characteristics resulted in a faster and more pronounced reduction of economic interdependence between spouses, which made divorce more attainable in these areas as compared with rural settings.

  17. Trends in epidemiology in the 21st century: time to adopt Bayesian methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edson Zangiacomi Martinez

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available 2013 marked the 250th anniversary of the presentation of Bayes’ theorem by the philosopher Richard Price. Thomas Bayes was a figure little known in his own time, but in the 20th century the theorem that bears his name became widely used in many fields of research. The Bayes theorem is the basis of the so-called Bayesian methods, an approach to statistical inference that allows studies to incorporate prior knowledge about relevant data characteristics into statistical analysis. Nowadays, Bayesian methods are widely used in many different areas such as astronomy, economics, marketing, genetics, bioinformatics and social sciences. This study observed that a number of authors discussed recent advances in techniques and the advantages of Bayesian methods for the analysis of epidemiological data. This article presents an overview of Bayesian methods, their application to epidemiological research and the main areas of epidemiology which should benefit from the use of Bayesian methods in coming years.

  18. Treatment strategies for oesophageal cancer - time-trends and long term outcome data from a large tertiary referral centre

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolf Maria C

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background and objectives Treatment options for oesophageal cancer have changed considerably over the last decades with the introduction of multimodal treatment concepts dominating the progress in the field. However, it remains unclear in how far the documented scientific progress influenced and changed the daily routine practice. Since most patients with oesophageal cancer generally suffer from reduced overall health conditions it is uncertain how high the proportion of aggressive treatments is and whether outcomes are improved substantially. In order to gain insight into this we performed a retrospective analysis of patients treated at a larger tertiary referral centre over time course of 25 years. Patients and methods Data of all patients diagnosed with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC and adenocarcinoma (AC of the oesophagus, treated between 1983 and 2007 in the department of radiation oncology of the LMU, were obtained. The primary endpoint of the data collection was overall survival (calculated from the date of diagnosis until death or last follow up. Changes in basic clinical characteristics, treatment approach and the effect on survival were analysed after dividing the cohort into five subsequent time periods (I-V with 5 years each. In a second analysis any pattern of change regarding the use of radio(chemotherapy (R(CT with and without surgery was determined. Results In total, 503 patients with SCC (78.5% and AC (18.9% of the oesophagus were identified. The average age was 60 years (range 35-91 years. 56.5% of the patients were diagnose with advanced UICC stages III-IV. R(CT was applied to 353 (70.2% patients; R(CT+ surgery was performed in 134 (26.6% patients, 63.8% of all received chemotherapy (platinum-based 5.8%, 5-fluorouracil (5-FU12.1%, 42.3% 5-FU and mitomycin C (MMC. The median follow-up period was 4.3 years. The median overall survival was 21.4 months. Over the time, patients were older, the formal tumour stage was more

  19. Who is using snus? - Time trends, socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of snus users in the ageing Swedish population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norberg Margareta

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The prevalence of smoking in Sweden has decreased in recent decades, and is now among the lowest in the world. During the same period, the use of Swedish moist oral snuff, a smokeless tobacco called snus, has increased. Few studies have evaluated time trends of the socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of snus users in Sweden. This paper contributes to filling that gap. Methods This study utilized the Linnaeus Database, which links national registers with comprehensive individual data on socioeconomic status (SES to health data from a large ongoing health survey, the Västerbotten Intervention Programme (VIP. The VIP targets the entire middle-aged population of Västerbotten county at ages 40, 50 and 60 years with yearly cross-sectional surveys including self-reported data on tobacco habits. Time trends of snus use among 92,563 VIP-participants across different areas of residence and smoking groups were investigated graphically. Logistic regression was performed to estimate the associations between SES and geographical variables and current use versus non-use of snus. Results Overall, in parallel to decreasing smoking, the increasing trend of snus use in this middle-aged population continues, particularly in 40-year-olds. In both genders, the highest prevalence of snus use was observed among previous smokers. The prevalence of snus use also increased over time among smokers, and was consistently higher compared to those who had never smoked. Among males - both those who had never smoked and previous smokers - low education (OR 1.21, 95%CI 1.06-1.40 and OR 1.28, 95%CI 1.14-1.43, living alone (OR 1.16, 95%CI 1.07-1.27 and OR 1.13, 95%ci 1.04-1.23, low income and living in rural areas was associated with using snus, while this was not seen among male current smokers. Among women, living alone was associated with using snus irrespective of smoking habits. Among female smokers, the OR for snus use increased with higher

  20. Time series analysis of trends in malaria cases and deaths at hospitals and the effect of antimalarial interventions, 2001-2011, Ethiopia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maru Aregawi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The Government of Ethiopia and its partners have deployed artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACT since 2004 and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs since 2005. Malaria interventions and trends in malaria cases and deaths were assessed at hospitals in malaria transmission areas during 2001-2011. METHODS: Regional LLINs distribution records were used to estimate the proportion of the population-at-risk protected by LLINs. Hospital records were reviewed to estimate ACT availability. Time-series analysis was applied to data from 41 hospitals in malaria risk areas to assess trends of malaria cases and deaths during pre-intervention (2001-2005 and post-interventions (2006-2011 periods. FINDINGS: The proportion of the population-at-risk potentially protected by LLINs increased to 51% in 2011. The proportion of facilities with ACTs in stock exceeded 87% during 2006-2011. Among all ages, confirmed malaria cases in 2011 declined by 66% (95% confidence interval [CI], 44-79% and SPR by 37% (CI, 20%-51% compared to the level predicted by pre-intervention trends. In children under 5 years of age, malaria admissions and deaths fell by 81% (CI, 47%-94% and 73% (CI, 48%-86% respectively. Optimal breakpoint of the trendlines occurred between January and June 2006, consistent with the timing of malaria interventions. Over the same period, non-malaria cases and deaths either increased or remained unchanged, the number of malaria diagnostic tests performed reflected the decline in malaria cases, and rainfall remained at levels supportive of malaria transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria cases and deaths in Ethiopian hospitals decreased substantially during 2006-2011 in conjunction with scale-up of malaria interventions. The decrease could not be accounted for by changes in hospital visits, malaria diagnostic testing or rainfall. However, given the history of variable malaria transmission in Ethiopia, more data would be required to exclude the

  1. Homicides in Western Norway, 1985-2009, time trends, age and gender differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristoffersen, S; Lilleng, P K; Mæhle, B O; Morild, I

    2014-05-01

    This retrospective study from Western Norway is based on the cases of 196 homicide victims from 1985 to 2009. The median age of the victims was 35 years, in both genders. Within the cases, 113 of the victims were male and 83 female, 28 victims were under the age of 18, and 19 victims were not native Norwegians. Ethanol was detected in the blood of a higher proportion of male compared to female victims, whereas a higher proportion of female compared to male victims had both illegal/legal drugs detected in their blood. Most perpetrators were male. Men were most often killed by an acquaintance, women by their present or former intimate partner. In 14 cases of intimate partner homicide the perpetrator committed suicide after killing their female partner. The dominant scene of crime was private homes. Most victims were killed by blunt force, sharp force or gunshot. The head was the body region most often injured in the homicide victims. Female victims were more often killed by manual strangulation than male victims.

  2. Time trend of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon emission factors from motor vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Shu; Shen, Huizhong; Wang, Rong; Sun, Kang

    2010-05-01

    Motor vehicle is an important emission source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and this is particularly true in urban areas. Motor vehicle emission factors (EFs) for individual PAH compound reported in the literature varied for 4 to 5 orders of magnitude, leading to high uncertainty in emission estimation. In this study, the major factors affecting EFs were investigated and characterized by regression models. Based on the model developed, a motor vehicle PAH emission inventory at country level was developed. It was found that country and model year are the most important factors affecting EFs for PAHs. The influence of the two factors can be quantified by a single parameter of per capita gross domestic production (purchasing power parity), which was used as the independent variables of the regression models. The models developed using randomly selected 80% of measurements and tested with the remained data accounted for 28 to 48% of the variations in EFs for PAHs measured in 16 countries over 50 years. The regression coefficients of the EF prediction models were molecular weight dependent. Motor vehicle emission of PAHs from individual countries in the world in 1985, 1995, 2005, 2015, and 2025 were calculated and the global emission of total PAHs were 470, 390, and 430 Gg in 1985, 1995, and 2005 and will be 290 and 130 Gg in 2015 and 2025, respectively. The emission is currently passing its peak and will decrease due to significant decrease in China and other developing countries.

  3. High temperature garnet growth in New England: regional temperature-time trends revealed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, N.; Ostwald, C.; Chu, X.; Baxter, E. F.; Ague, J. J.; Eckert, J. O.

    2013-12-01

    A series of localized ultrahigh-temperature (UHT)/high-temperature (HT) granulite facies regions have been identified within the regional amphibolite facies metamorphic zone of the Central Maine Terrane stretching from north-central New Hampshire, through central Massachusetts, and into northeastern Connecticut. Here, we aim to constrain the age and peak temperature of metamorphism at three localities within this region: Bristol, NH, Phillipston, MA and Willington, CT. Garnet-forming reactions are linked directly to peak metamorphic temperatures through thermodynamic modeling and/or Zr-in-rutile thermometry. Precise garnet geochronology allows us to identify the timing of these peak temperatures, as well as the duration of garnet growth. Geochronologic and thermodynamic work was done on 12 samples collected throughout a ~5 km2 metamorphic 'hotspot' previously identified in Bristol, NH (Chamberlain and Rumble, 1988; Journal of Petrology). The highest temperature assemblage within this hotspot is characterized by the presence of garnet + sillimanite + K-feldspar + cordierite and reached temperatures >820οC. The lowest temperature periphery of the hotspot is characterized by sillimanite + muscovite + K-feldspar + minor garnet and reached a maximum temperature of 650οC. Bulk garnet ages from samples within the hotspot range significantly from at least 400.0 × 2.5 Ma to 352.7 × 1.8 Ma with the youngest ages associated with the lower temperature samples. This collection of ages indicates a prolonged period (~50 Ma) of >650οC temperatures interspersed by period(s) of garnet growth. Zoned garnet geochronology will help reveal whether garnet growth and related heating was continuous or episodic. Further south, in Phillipston, MA, zoned garnet geochronology performed on a 2.5 cm diameter garnet porphyroblast indicates garnet growth spanning 389 - 363 Ma, reaching peak temperatures at the end of that time span of 920-940οC, followed by a younger event recorded in

  4. Visibility Graph Based Time Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen, Mutua; Gu, Changgui; Yang, Huijie

    2015-01-01

    Network based time series analysis has made considerable achievements in the recent years. By mapping mono/multivariate time series into networks, one can investigate both it’s microscopic and macroscopic behaviors. However, most proposed approaches lead to the construction of static networks consequently providing limited information on evolutionary behaviors. In the present paper we propose a method called visibility graph based time series analysis, in which series segments are mapped to visibility graphs as being descriptions of the corresponding states and the successively occurring states are linked. This procedure converts a time series to a temporal network and at the same time a network of networks. Findings from empirical records for stock markets in USA (S&P500 and Nasdaq) and artificial series generated by means of fractional Gaussian motions show that the method can provide us rich information benefiting short-term and long-term predictions. Theoretically, we propose a method to investigate time series from the viewpoint of network of networks. PMID:26571115

  5. Mapping and Evaluation of NDVI Trends from Synthetic Time Series Obtained by Blending Landsat and MODIS Data around a Coalfield on the Loess Plateau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kun Wang

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The increasingly intensive and extensive coal mining activities on the Loess Plateau pose a threat to the fragile local ecosystems. Quantifying the effects of coal mining activities on environmental conditions is of great interest for restoring and managing the local ecosystems and resources. This paper generates dense NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index time series between 2000 and 2011 at a spatial resolution of 30 m by blending Landsat and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data using the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM and further evaluates its capability for mapping vegetation trends around a typical coalfield on the Loss Plateau. Synthetic NDVI images were generated using (1 STARFM-generated NIR (near infrared and red band reflectance data (scheme 1 and (2 Landsat and MODIS NDVI images directly as inputs for STARFM (scheme 2. By comparing the synthetic NDVI images with the corresponding Landsat NDVI, we found that scheme 2 consistently generated better results (0.70 < R2 < 0.76 than scheme 1 (0.56 < R2 < 0.70 in this study area. Trend analysis was then performed with the synthetic dense NDVI time series and the annual maximum NDVI (NDVImax time series. The accuracy of these trends was evaluated by comparing to those from the corresponding MODIS time series, and it was concluded that both the trends from synthetic/MODIS NDVI dense time series and synthetic/MODIS NDVImax time series (2000–2011 were highly consistent. Compared to trends from MODIS time series, trends from synthetic time series are better able to capture fine scale vegetation changes. STARFM-generated synthetic NDVI time series could be used to quantify the effects of mining activities on vegetation, but the test areas should be selected with caution, as the trends derived from synthetic and MODIS time series may be significantly different in some areas.

  6. Agenda Trending: Reciprocity and the Predictive Capacity of Social Networking Sites in Intermedia Agenda Setting across Topics over Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob Groshek

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In the contemporary converged media environment, agenda setting is being transformed by the dramatic growth of audiences that are simultaneously media users and producers. The study reported here addresses related gaps in the literature by first comparing the topical agendas of two leading traditional media outlets (New York Times and CNN with the most frequently shared stories and trending topics on two widely popular Social Networking Sites (Facebook and Twitter. Time-series analyses of the most prominent topics identify the extent to which traditional media sets the agenda for social media as well as reciprocal agenda-setting effects of social media topics entering traditional media agendas. In addition, this study examines social intermedia agenda setting topically and across time within social networking sites, and in so doing, adds a vital understanding of where traditional media, online uses, and social media content intersect around instances of focusing events, particularly elections. Findings identify core differences between certain traditional and social media agendas, but also within social media agendas that extend from uses examined here. Additional results further suggest important topical and event-oriented limitations upon the predictive capacit of social networking sites to shape traditional media agendas over time.

  7. Nationwide trends in development of heart failure and mortality after first-time myocardial infarction 1997–2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjesing, Anne; Gislason, Gunnar H.; Køber, Lars

    2014-01-01

    AIMS: Pharmacological and revascularization strategies following myocardial infarction (MI) have changed substantially during the last two decades. We investigated the temporal trends in heart failure (HF) incidence and mortality during the first 90 days following first-time MI between 1997.......2% in 2009-10. Treatment with clopidogrel increased from 0.02% in 1997-98 to 68.1% in 2009-10 and statins from 8.1% in 1997-98 to 78.3% in 2009-10. The incidence of HF (defined as HF diagnosis or incident use of loop diuretics) decreased from 23.6% in 1997-98 to 19.6% in 2009-10 (p

  8. Time trends for risk of severe age-related diseases in individuals with and without HIV infection in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Line D; May, Margaret T; Kronborg, Gitte

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Whether the reported high risk of age-related diseases in HIV-infected people is caused by biological ageing or HIV-associated risk factors such as chronic immune activation and low-grade inflammation is unknown. We assessed time trends in age-standardised and relative risks of nine...... serious age-related diseases in a nationwide cohort study of HIV-infected individuals and population controls. METHODS: We identified all HIV-infected individuals in the Danish HIV Cohort Study who had received HIV care in Denmark between Jan 1, 1995, and June 1, 2014. Population controls were identified...... from the Danish Civil Registration System and individually matched in a ratio of nine to one to the HIV-infected individuals for year of birth, sex, and date of study inclusion. Individuals were included in the study if they had a Danish personal identification number, were aged 16 years or older...

  9. Footprint and imprint: an ecologic time-trend analysis of cardiovascular publications in general and specialty journals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldridge, Abigail S; Huffman, Mark D; Bloomfield, Gerald S; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj

    2014-06-01

    Studies have demonstrated strong associations between publication source and citations, as well as investigatory analysis of collaboration effects, in general and medical literature, but are limited to specific journals or short duration of time. This study sought to analyze time trends in cardiovascular research publications in leading general and specialty journals and to determine the association between collaboration and citation index. Cardiovascular publications were retrieved from Web of Knowledge by a cardiovascular bibliometric filter, and annual publication volumes in 8 general and specialty journals were compared. Univariable linear regression models were used to determine global and journal-specific trends for overall publication, cardiovascular publication, proportion of cardiovascular publication, collaboration, and citations. Cardiovascular publications increased (1999 to 2008) by 36% and number of sources by 74%. Volume increased in European Heart Journal (beta: 18.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 10.6 to 26.3) and decreased in Circulation (beta: -42.9, 95% CI: -79.3 to -6.5), Annals of Internal Medicine (beta: -1.9, 95% CI: -3.5 to -0.3), and Lancet (beta: -11.2, 95% CI: -14.7 to -7.8). Number of contributing countries increased in 3 journals: BMJ (beta: 0.8, 95% CI: 0.2 to 1.5), European Heart Journal (beta: -1.2, 95% CI: 0.8 to 1.7), and New England Journal of Medicine (beta: 1.6, 95% CI: 0.6 to 2.7). Fraction of collaborative publications increased (beta: 1.1 to 2.9) in all but Annals of Internal Medicine. Collaboration was associated with a higher median actual citation index (p journals. Contribution by country in selected journals was disproportionate and under-represents total cardiovascular research in low- and middle-income countries.

  10. Crop Yield Forecasted Model Based on Time Series Techniques

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Hong-ying; Hou Yan-lin; Zhou Yong-juan; Zhao Hui-ming

    2012-01-01

    Traditional studies on potential yield mainly referred to attainable yield: the maximum yield which could be reached by a crop in a given environment. The new concept of crop yield under average climate conditions was defined in this paper, which was affected by advancement of science and technology. Based on the new concept of crop yield, the time series techniques relying on past yield data was employed to set up a forecasting model. The model was tested by using average grain yields of Liaoning Province in China from 1949 to 2005. The testing combined dynamic n-choosing and micro tendency rectification, and an average forecasting error was 1.24%. In the trend line of yield change, and then a yield turning point might occur, in which case the inflexion model was used to solve the problem of yield turn point.

  11. Time-driven activity-based costing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Robert S; Anderson, Steven R

    2004-11-01

    In the classroom, activity-based costing (ABC) looks like a great way to manage a company's limited resources. But executives who have tried to implement ABC in their organizations on any significant scale have often abandoned the attempt in the face of rising costs and employee irritation. They should try again, because a new approach sidesteps the difficulties associated with large-scale ABC implementation. In the revised model, managers estimate the resource demands imposed by each transaction, product, or customer, rather than relying on time-consuming and costly employee surveys. This method is simpler since it requires, for each group of resources, estimates of only two parameters: how much it costs per time unit to supply resources to the business's activities (the total overhead expenditure of a department divided by the total number of minutes of employee time available) and how much time it takes to carry out one unit of each kind of activity (as estimated or observed by the manager). This approach also overcomes a serious technical problem associated with employee surveys: the fact that, when asked to estimate time spent on activities, employees invariably report percentages that add up to 100. Under the new system, managers take into account time that is idle or unused. Armed with the data, managers then construct time equations, a new feature that enables the model to reflect the complexity of real-world operations by showing how specific order, customer, and activity characteristics cause processing times to vary. This Tool Kit uses concrete examples to demonstrate how managers can obtain meaningful cost and profitability information, quickly and inexpensively. Rather than endlessly updating and maintaining ABC data,they can now spend their time addressing the deficiencies the model reveals: inefficient processes, unprofitable products and customers, and excess capacity.

  12. Trends in leisure time physical activity, smoking, body mass index and alcohol consumption in Danish adults with and without diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molsted, Stig; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Snorgaard, Ole

    2014-01-01

    AIMS: In recent decades there has been an increased focus on non-pharmacological treatment of diabetes. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in leisure time physical activity (PA), smoking, body mass index (BMI), and alcohol consumption reported in 2000, 2005 and 2010 by Danish subjects...... with diabetes. METHODS: Data comprised level of leisure time PA (inactive; moderate active; medium active; high active); smoking; BMI; and alcohol consumption, provided by The Danish Health and Morbidity Surveys. Participants older than 45 years with or without diabetes were included from cross...... was reduced from 27.2% to 16.4%, p=0.015, in women with diabetes. In men with diabetes, BMI increased from 27.2 ± 4.0 to 28.6 ± 5.1 kgm(-2), p=0.003, and men who exceeded the maximum recommendation for alcohol consumption increased from 9.4% to 19.0%, p=0.007. The leisure time PA level was reduced...

  13. Trends of psychology-related research on euthanasia: a qualitative software-based thematic analysis of journal abstracts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caputo, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    Euthanasia has received increasing attention in both academic and public debates as one of the most controversial issues. However, the contribution of psychology-related themes to the topic has had little role on these ongoing debates. The aim of the present study is twofold: (1) to explore the main themes relating to euthanasia as provided by psychology-related research; (2) to analyze the temporal trends of psychology-related research on euthanasia over the last decades. A comprehensive search of academic literature was conducted on PsychINFO database. A qualitative software-based thematic analysis was carried out on 602 journal abstracts published from 1935 to 2014. This study highlighted four different thematic areas which characterized the scientific discourse on euthanasia: (1) moral values, in terms of religious, philosophical, and social implications concerning the individual's decision to die; (2) professional ethics, in terms of health and social workers' legal responsibility in death assistance; (3) end-of-life care, with regard to medical options provided to support individuals nearing death; and (4) patient's right to healthcare, in terms of access to palliative care and better quality of dying. Euthanasia discourse over the last decades seems to be overall characterized by two main dimensions: (1) the increasing trend of social legitimacy and acceptability of euthanasia over time, which moved from ethical to healthcare issues; and (2) the curvilinear temporal trend about the request/provision process in euthanasia, which moved from patient's decision for ending life (mainly characterizing the most past and recent research) to the role of health professionals (with a peak in the 1990s). The results suggest palliative care as a potential future research area which can provide healthcare providers with skills to 'connect' with patients, understand patients' hidden agendas, and grant a good quality of life and dying process.

  14. Prevalence and time trends of spina bifida in fourteen cities located in the Liaoning province of northeast China, 2006-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ba, Gen; Wu, Qi-Jun; Chen, Yan-Ling; Huang, Yan-Hong; Gong, Ting-Ting

    2017-01-27

    The present study sought to assess the time trends of spina bifida on the basis of cases identified by the Liaoning Birth Defects Registry in 14 cities from 2006 to 2015. We calculated the prevalence of spina bifida, percent and average change of time trends, and contribution rates of each city. Poisson regression model was used to find the line of best fit for spina bifida prevalence by year, with year as a continuous independent variable. From 2006 to 2015, a total of 2,029 spina bifida cases were identified from 3,248,954 live births (6.25/10,000 live births). We observed statistically significant decreasing trend of overall time trend (11.57% each year). Chaoyang, Fuxin, and Huludao were the top three leading cities, with 14.30/10,000 live births, 9.70/10,000 live births, and 9.20/10,000 live births, respectively. Inversely, the bottom three cities with lowest prevalence were Anshan (2.64/10,000 live births), Dandong (3.43/10,000 live births), and Dalian (3.45/10,000 live births). Of note, we observed significant decreasing trends in over half of these cities (n = 8). In addition, the decreasing trend of overall time trend could be mainly attributed to cities of Shenyang, Fushun, and Jinzhou which accounted for nearly one third. In summary, our study suggested a decreasing time trend of spina bifida during the past decade in the Liaoning province. The findings of this study provide evidence that the nationwide folic acid supplement program has been an effective strategy to prevent spina bifida.

  15. Smart Travel Based on Space-Time Behavior Study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chai; Yanwei; Shen; Yue; Ta; Na; Qian; Fang

    2015-01-01

    In view of the significant demands and development trends of urbanization during the 12 th Five-Year Plan period, "smart city" has attracted wide attention as an advanced city development concept in China. Under the circumstance of rapid urbanization, traffic congestion and accessibility defi ciency become major challenges to many Chinese cities, as transportation and travel are closely related to the effi ciency of a city’s operation and the quality of people’s life. As essential part of smart city planning and management, smart travel offers an effective behavior planning countermeasure to reduce the amount of urban traffi c and optimize the space-time distribution of travels and provides an effective technology to enrich the theories and methodologies of urban and transportation planning. Orienting at the practical demand of citizens and focusing on their travel behavior, this paper carries out a discussion on the smart travel framework based on space-time behavior study and analyzes smart travel planning and its policy route from multiple perspectives, including a prediction on travel demand, transportation planning, public policy-making, and urban planning. What’s more, the paper suggests travel services for citizens based on space-time behavior analysis, such as providing personalized information, smart decision-making support, and individual behavior planning.

  16. Time trends in leisure time physical activity and physical fitness in elderly people: 20 year follow-up of the Spanish population national health survey (1987-2006

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    Carrasco-Garrido Pilar

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To estimate trends in leisure time physical activity and physical fitness between 1987-2006 in older Spanish people. Methods We analyzed data collected from the Spanish National Health Surveys conducted in 1987 (n = 29,647, 1993 (n = 20,707, 1995-1997 (n = 12,800, 2001 (n = 21,058, 2003 (n = 21,650, and 2006 (n = 29,478. The number of subjects aged ≥ 65 years included in the current study was 29,263 (1987: n = 4,958-16.7%; 1993: n = 3,751-17.8%; 1995-97: n = 2,229-17.4%; 2001: n = 4,356-20.7%; 2003: 6,134-28.3%; 2006: 7,835-26.5%. Main variables included leisure-time physical activity and physical fitness. We analyzed socio-demographic characteristics, self-rated health status, lifestyle habit and co-morbid conditions using multivariate logistic regression models. Results Women exhibited lower prevalence of leisure time physical activity and physical fitness compared to men (P Conclusions We found an increase in leisure time physical activity in the older Spanish population. Older age, married status, co-morbid conditions, obesity, and worse self-perceived health status were associated with lower activity. Identification of these factors can help to identify individuals at risk for physical inactivity.

  17. Gender-based screening for chlamydial infection and divergent infection trends in men and women.

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    Susan M Rogers

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To assess the potential impact of chlamydial screening policy that recommends routine screening of women but not men. METHODS: Population surveys of probability samples of Baltimore adults aged 18 to 35 years in 1997-1998 and 2006-2009 collected biospecimens to estimate trends in undiagnosed chlamydial infection. Survey estimates are compared to surveillance data on diagnosed chlamydial infections reported to the Health Department. RESULTS: Prevalence of undiagnosed chlamydial infection among men increased from 1.6% to 4.0%, but it declined from 4.3% to 3.1% among women (p = 0.028 for test of interaction. The annual (average number of diagnosed infections was substantially higher among women than men in both time periods and increased among both men and women. Undiagnosed infection prevalence was substantially higher among black than non-black adults (4.0% vs 1.2%, p = 0.042 in 1997-98 and 5.5% vs 0.7%, p<0.001 in 2006-09. CONCLUSION: Divergent trends in undiagnosed chlamydial infection by gender parallel divergent screening recommendations that encourage chlamydial testing for women but not for men.

  18. State-space based analysis and forecasting of macroscopic road safety trends in Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

    2013-11-01

    In this paper, macroscopic road safety trends in Greece are analyzed using state-space models and data for 52 years (1960-2011). Seemingly unrelated time series equations (SUTSE) models are developed first, followed by richer latent risk time-series (LRT) models. As reliable estimates of vehicle-kilometers are not available for Greece, the number of vehicles in circulation is used as a proxy to the exposure. Alternative considered models are presented and discussed, including diagnostics for the assessment of their model quality and recommendations for further enrichment of this model. Important interventions were incorporated in the models developed (1986 financial crisis, 1991 old-car exchange scheme, 1996 new road fatality definition) and found statistically significant. Furthermore, the forecasting results using data up to 2008 were compared with final actual data (2009-2011) indicating that the models perform properly, even in unusual situations, like the current strong financial crisis in Greece. Forecasting results up to 2020 are also presented and compared with the forecasts of a model that explicitly considers the currently on-going recession. Modeling the recession, and assuming that it will end by 2013, results in more reasonable estimates of risk and vehicle-kilometers for the 2020 horizon. This research demonstrates the benefits of using advanced state-space modeling techniques for modeling macroscopic road safety trends, such as allowing the explicit modeling of interventions. The challenges associated with the application of such state-of-the-art models for macroscopic phenomena, such as traffic fatalities in a region or country, are also highlighted. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that it is possible to apply such complex models using the relatively short time-series that are available in macroscopic road safety analysis.

  19. Time Trends in Incidence and Mortality of Acute Myocardial Infarction, and All-Cause Mortality following a Cardiovascular Prevention Program in Sweden.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gunilla Journath

    Full Text Available In 1988, a cardiovascular prevention program which combined an individual and a population-based strategy was launched within primary health-care in Sollentuna, a municipality in Stockholm County. The aim of this study was to investigate time trends in the incidence of and mortality from acute myocardial infarction and all-cause mortality in Sollentuna compared with the rest of Stockholm County during a period of two decades following the implementation of a cardiovascular prevention program.The average population in Sollentuna was 56,589 (49% men and in Stockholm County (Sollentuna included 1,795,504 (49% men during the study period of 1987-2010. Cases of hospitalized acute myocardial infarction and death were obtained for the population of Sollentuna and the rest of Stockholm County using national registries of hospital discharges and deaths. Acute myocardial infarction incidence and mortality were estimated using the average population of Sollentuna and Stockholm in 1987-2010.During the observation period, the incidence of acute myocardial infarction decreased more in Sollentuna compared with the rest of Stockholm County in women (-22% vs. -7%; for difference in slope <0.05. There was a trend towards a greater decline in Sollentuna compared to the rest of Stockholm County in the incidence of acute myocardial infarction (in men, acute myocardial mortality, and all-cause mortality but the differences were not significant.During a period of steep decline in acute myocardial infarction incidence and mortality in Stockholm County the municipality of Sollentuna showed a stronger trend in women possibly compatible with favorable influence of a cardiovascular prevention program.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02212145.

  20. Landsat-based Analysis of Mountain Forest-tundra Ecotone Response to Climate Trends in Sayan Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharuk, Viatcheslav I.; Im, Sergey T.; Ranson, K. Jon

    2007-01-01

    observations of temperatures Siberia has shown a several degree warming over the past 30 years. It is expected that forest will respond to warming at high latitudes through increased tree growth and northward or upward slope migration. migration. Tree response to climate trends is most likely observable in the forest-tundra ecotone, where temperature mainly limits tree growth. Making repeated satellite observations over several decades provides an opportunity to track vegetation response to climate change. Based on Landsat data of the Sayan Mountains, Siberia, there was an increase in forest stand crown closure and an upward tree-line shift in the of the forest-tundra ecotone during the last quarter of the 2oth century,. On-ground observations, supporting these results, also showed regeneration of Siberian pine in the alpine tundra, and the transformation of prostrate Siberian pine and fir into arboreal (upright) forms. During this time period sparse stands transformed into closed stands, with existing closed stands increasing in area at a rate of approx. 1 %/yr, and advancing their upper border at a vertical rate of approx. 1.0 m/yr. In addition, the vertical rate of regeneration propagation is approx. 5 m/yr. It was also found that these changes correlated positively with temperature trends

  1. Time trends in the association of ESRD incidence with area-level poverty in the US population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrity, Bridget H; Kramer, Holly; Vellanki, Kavitha; Leehey, David; Brown, Julia; Shoham, David A

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the temporal trends of the association between area-level poverty status and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) incidence. We hypothesized that the association between area-level poverty status and ESRD incidence has increased significantly over time. Patient data from the United States Renal Data System were linked with data from the 2000 and 2010 US census. Area-level poverty was defined as living in a zip code-defined area with ≥20% of households living below the federal poverty line. Negative binomial regression models were created to examine the association between area-level poverty status and ESRD incidence by time period in the US adult population while simultaneously adjusting for the distribution of age, sex, and race/ethnicity within a zip code. Time was categorized as January 1, 1995 through December 31, 2004 (Period 1) and January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2010 (Period 2). The percentage of adults initiating dialysis with area-level poverty increased from 27.4% during Period 1 to 34.0% in Period 2. After accounting for the distribution of age, sex, and race/ethnicity within a zip code, area-level poverty status was associated with a 1.24 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22, 1.25)-fold higher ESRD incidence. However, this association differed by time period with 1.04-fold (95% CI 1.02, 1.05) higher ESRD incidence associated with poverty status for Period 2 compared with the association between ESRD and poverty status in Period 1. Area-level poverty and its association with ESRD incidence is not static over time.

  2. Temporal Trends in Overweight and Obesity, Physical Activity and Screen Time among Czech Adolescents from 2002 to 2014: A National Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigmund, Erik; Sigmundová, Dagmar; Badura, Petr; Kalman, Michal; Hamrik, Zdenek; Pavelka, Jan

    2015-09-18

    This study examines trends in overweight and obesity, physical activity (PA) and screen time (ST) among Czech adolescents over a recent 12-year study period. Nationally representative samples consisted of 19,940 adolescents (9760 boys and 10,180 girls) aged 10.5-16.5 years from the Czech Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) questionnaire-based surveys conducted in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014. Trends in the prevalence of overweight/obesity, meeting the recommendations for moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) (≥60 min per day of MVPA) and excessive ST (>2 h per day) were estimated using logistic regression. Significant increases (p obesity between the years 2002 and 2014 were evident for both adolescent boys (18.3%(2002)-24.8%(2014)) and girls (8.3%(2002)-11.9%(2014)). Compared to 2002, in 2014 significant decreases (p obesity with concomitant decreases in PA provide evidence in support of the current and upcoming efforts of government and commercial organizations in implementing interventions aimed at reducing excessive body weight among Czech adolescents.

  3. Benchmarking of hospital information systems: Monitoring of discharge letters and scheduling can reveal heterogeneities and time trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eckholt Markus

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Monitoring of hospital information system (HIS usage can provide insights into best practices within a hospital and help to assess time trends. In terms of effort and cost of benchmarking, figures derived automatically from the routine HIS system are preferable to manual methods like surveys, in particular for repeated analysis. Methods Due to relevance for quality management and efficient resource utilization we focused on time-to-completion of discharge letters (assessed by CT-plots and usage of patient scheduling. We analyzed these parameters monthly during one year at a major university hospital in Germany. Results We found several distinct patterns of discharge letter documentation indicating a large heterogeneity of HIS usage between different specialties (completeness 51 – 99%, delays 0 – 90 days. Overall usage of scheduling increased during the observation period by 62%, but again showed a considerable variation between departments. Conclusion Regular monitoring of HIS key figures can contribute to a continuous HIS improvement process.

  4. Time series decomposition of remotely sensed land surface temperature and investigation of trends and seasonal variations in surface urban heat islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quan, Jinling; Zhan, Wenfeng; Chen, Yunhao; Wang, Mengjie; Wang, Jinfei

    2016-03-01

    Previous time series methods have difficulties in simultaneous characterization of seasonal, gradual, and abrupt changes of remotely sensed land surface temperature (LST). This study proposed a model to decompose LST time series into trend, seasonal, and noise components. The trend component indicates long-term climate change and land development and is described as a piecewise linear function with iterative breakpoint detection. The seasonal component illustrates annual insolation variations and is modeled as a sinusoidal function on the detrended data. This model is able to separate the seasonal variation in LST from the long-term (including gradual and abrupt) change. Model application to nighttime Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/LST time series during 2000-2012 over Beijing yielded an overall root-mean-square error of 1.62 K between the combination of the decomposed trend and seasonal components and the actual MODIS/LSTs. LST decreased (~ -0.086 K/yr, p sixth ring roads. The decreasing trend was stronger over croplands than over urban lands (p < 0.05), resulting in an increasing trend in surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII, 0.022 ± 0.006 K/yr). This was mainly attributed to the trends in urban-rural differences in rainfall and albedo. The SUHII demonstrated a concave seasonal variation primarily due to the seasonal variations of urban-rural differences in temperature cooling rate (related to canyon structure, vegetation, and soil moisture) and surface heat dissipation (affected by humidity and wind).

  5. Trends and sensitivities of low streamflow extremes to discharge timing and magnitude in Pacific Northwest mountain streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kormos, Patrick R.; Luce, Charles H.; Wenger, Seth J.; Berghuijs, Wouter R.

    2016-07-01

    Path analyses of historical streamflow data from the Pacific Northwest indicate that the precipitation amount has been the dominant control on the magnitude of low streamflow extremes compared to the air temperature-affected timing of snowmelt runoff. The relative sensitivities of low streamflow to precipitation and temperature changes have important implications for adaptation planning because global circulation models produce relatively robust estimates of air temperature changes but have large uncertainties in projected precipitation amounts in the Pacific Northwest U.S. Quantile regression analyses indicate that low streamflow extremes from the majority of catchments in this study have declined from 1948 to 2013, which may significantly affect terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and water resource management. Trends in the 25th percentile of mean annual streamflow have declined and the center of timing has occurred earlier. We quantify the relative influences of total precipitation and air temperature on the annual low streamflow extremes from 42 stream gauges using mean annual streamflow as a proxy for precipitation amount effects and streamflow center of timing as a proxy for temperature effects on low flow metrics, including 7q10 summer (the minimum 7 day flow during summer with a 10 year return period), mean August, mean September, mean summer, 7q10 winter, and mean winter flow metrics. These methods have the benefit of using only readily available streamflow data, which makes our results robust against systematic errors in high elevation distributed precipitation data. Winter low flow metrics are weakly tied to both mean annual streamflow and center of timing.

  6. New Trends in the Design of Enzyme-based Biosensors for Medical Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palchetti, Ilaria

    2016-01-01

    A biosensor is a self-contained integrated device, which is capable of providing specific quantitative or semiquantitative analytical information using a biological (or biomimetic) recognition element, which is retained in direct spatial contact with an electrochemical transduction element. One of the main features of biosensors is the remarkable selectivity that their biological components confer on them. Enzymes are the most common and well-developed recognition system of the family known as catalytic biosensors. This mini-review is focused on enzyme-based biosensors for medical applications. In particular, the new trends for the technology are described. A special emphasis is devoted to the non-invasive and painless monitoring of body metabolites, such as glucose.

  7. Synthesis of gold nanoparticles with glycosides: synthetic trends based on the structures of glycones and aglycones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Jisung; Park, Suryeon; Hong, Suckchang; Ha, Min Woo; Park, Hyeung-geun; Park, Youmie; Lee, Hyo-Jong; Park, Yohan

    2014-03-11

    A new, room temperature synthetic method for gold nanoparticles from auric acid with glycosides as reducing agents in aqueous NaOH is presented. As a mechanistic study of the oxidation sites on the glycosides, eight sugar-containing reductants (glycoside, glucose, glucuronic acid) have been tested in the synthesis of gold nanoparticles to determine their trends based on the structures of glycones and aglycones. As a result of the comparison among the eight sugar-containing reductants, it was determined that C-6 of glycosides is oxidized to a carboxylic acid during the reduction of auric acid. To detect the oxidized compounds of the glycosides, the reaction mixtures were monitored by (13)C NMR. Among the eight sugar-containing reductants, phenyl β-D-glucoside generated the highest synthetic yield of mono-dispersed, round gold nanoparticles (13.15±1.30 nm, 99.7% yield).

  8. Diverging trends in recent population-based survival rates in oesophageal and gastric cancer.

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    Jesper Lagergren

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Survival trends in oesophageal and gastric cancer need to be updated. A nationwide Swedish population-based study in 1961-2009 was based on registry data. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Relative survival rate, i.e. the ratio of the observed to the expected survival, adjusted for age, sex, and calendar period, and presented with 95% confidence intervals (CI, was the main outcome measure. The expected survival was calculated using the corresponding Swedish general population with no exclusions. The relative survival rates in oesophageal and gastric cardia adenocarcinoma have improved since the 1990s (p for trend <0.001, but not in oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma or gastric non-cardia adenocarcinoma. The relative 5-year survival rates during the two recent periods 1990-1999 and 2000-2008 were 12.5% (95%CI 10.1%-14.9% and 10.3% (95%CI 8.5-12.0% for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma, 12.5% (95%CI 10.1%-14.9% and 14.6% (95%CI 12.6-16.6% for oesophageal adenocarcinoma, 11.1% (95%CI 9.6%-12.6% and 14.3% (95%CI 12.3-16.3% for gastric cardia adenocarcinoma, and 20.2% (95%CI 19.2%-21.1% and 19.0% (95%CI 17.7-20.2% for gastric non-cardia adenocarcinoma. The 3-year survival in tumour stage III in 2004-2008 was about 25% for all four tumour types. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The survival in oesophageal and cardia adenocarcinoma is increasing, but the lack of such increase in oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma and gastric non-cardia adenocarcinoma is a concern.

  9. Linear Regression Based Real-Time Filtering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Misel Batmend

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces real time filtering method based on linear least squares fitted line. Method can be used in case that a filtered signal is linear. This constraint narrows a band of potential applications. Advantage over Kalman filter is that it is computationally less expensive. The paper further deals with application of introduced method on filtering data used to evaluate a position of engraved material with respect to engraving machine. The filter was implemented to the CNC engraving machine control system. Experiments showing its performance are included.

  10. Life time risk for development of ten major cancers in India and its trends over the years 1982 to 2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satyanarayana L

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Background : Understanding cancer magnitude, risk and trends will be of help in cancer control programs. Aim : To study trends in cumulative risk up to 64 years of age as lifetime risk of developing major cancers in India during the years 1982 to 2000. Design : Retrospective. Setting : Secondary sources of cancer-registration data. Materials and Methods : Data on age-specific cancer-incidence rates were collected for patients 0-64 years of age of either sex for 10 major cancer sites from the National Cancer Registry Program (NCRP reports of India from Mumbai, Chennai, Bangalore, Bhopal and Delhi; and Barshi registries for the years 1982 or 1988 to 2000. Statistical Analysis : Cumulative risks computed for lifetime development of cancer. Linear trends were studied using simple linear regressions. Results : The lifetime risk among females for the10 cancer sites ranged from 0.02 to 3.3% and from 0.04 to 2.4% for the years 1982 and 2000 respectively; whereas among males, it ranged from 0.04 to 0.89% and from 0.05 to 0.95% respectively. Significant (P < 0.05 increasing trends were observed for breast, non-Hodgkin′s lymphoma (NHL, gallbladder, thyroid and ovary cancers among females; while declining trends were observed for cervix, mouth, stomach, esophagus and tongue cancers. Among males, significant (P < 0.05 increasing trends were observed for NHL and prostate cancer; whereas declining trends were observed for stomach, liver, hypopharynx and tongue cancers. Cancers of mouth and esophagus showed increasing trends (P < 0.05 in some regions and declining trends (P < 0.05 in some other. Conclusion : Significant and higher rates of positive trends in lifetime cancer risks for breast cancer among females and for NHL among both sexes were observed.

  11. Dental anxiety and dental attendance among 25-year-olds in Norway: time trends from 1997 to 2007

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    Skaret Erik

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background So far, there are few studies considering the development of dental anxiety and dental attendance patterns across time in the general population of Norwegian adults. This study aimed to 1 determine the frequency of dental anxiety and regular dental attendance among 25-year-olds in Norway in 1997 and 2007, 2 to study the development (time trend of dental anxiety and the socio-behavioral distribution of dental anxiety from 1997 to 2007. Method Random samples of 1,190 and 8,000 25-yr-olds were drawn from the populations of three counties in Western Norway in 1997 and 2007, respectively. The eligible participants received questionnaires by mail including questions on socio-demographics, dental anxiety (DAS and dental attendance. Results In 1997, 11.5% males versus 23% females reported high dental anxiety (DAS ≥ 13. Corresponding figures in 2007 were 11.3% and 19.8%. The proportions who had attended yearly for a dental check-up during the past 5 years fell from 62% in 1997 (men 56.9% and women 66.4% to 44.6% (men 38.1% and women 48.6% in 2007. After controlling for potential confounding factors, the 25-year-olds were 1.4 times more likely to report dental anxiety in 1997 compared to 2007. The decrease was largely attributable to a lower mean DAS score among higher educated females in 2007 than in 1997. The discrepancy in dental anxiety between regular and non-regular dental attendees had decreased, largely attributable to a decline in dental anxiety among irregular dental attendees. Conclusion The study showed reduced dental anxiety and dental attendance among 25 year-olds in Norway from 1997 to 2007. This study points to the importance of controlling for possible changes in socio-demographic distributions when different cohorts are compared.

  12. Trends in Overall Mortality, and Timing and Cause of Death among Extremely Preterm Infants near the Limit of Viability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Sein; Ahn, So Yoon; Park, Won Soon

    2017-01-01

    Objective To investigate the trends in mortality, as well as in the timing and cause of death, among extremely preterm infants at the limit of viability, and thus to identify the clinical factors that contribute to decreased mortality. Methods We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 382 infants born at 23–26 weeks’ gestation; 124 of the infants were born between 2001 and 2005 (period I) and 258 were born between 2006 and 2011 (period II). We stratified the infants into two subgroups–“23–24 weeks” and “25–26 weeks”–and retrospectively analyzed the clinical characteristics and mortality in each group, as well as the timing and cause of death. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were done to identify the clinical factors associated with mortality. Results The overall mortality rate in period II was 16.7% (43/258), which was significantly lower than that in period I (30.6%; 38/124). For overall cause of death, there were significantly fewer deaths due to sepsis (2.4% [6/258] vs. 8.1% [10/124], respectively) and air-leak syndrome (0.8% [2/258] vs. 4.8% (6/124), respectively) during period II than during period I. Among the clinical factors of time period, 1-and 5-min Apgar score, antenatal steroid identified significant by univariate analyses. 5-min Apgar score and antenatal steroid use were significantly associated with mortality in multivariate analyses. Conclusion Improved mortality rate attributable to fewer deaths due to sepsis and air leak syndrome in the infants with 23–26 weeks’ gestation was associated with higher 5-minute Apgar score and more antenatal steroid use. PMID:28114330

  13. Automatic trend estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Vamos¸, C˘alin

    2013-01-01

    Our book introduces a method to evaluate the accuracy of trend estimation algorithms under conditions similar to those encountered in real time series processing. This method is based on Monte Carlo experiments with artificial time series numerically generated by an original algorithm. The second part of the book contains several automatic algorithms for trend estimation and time series partitioning. The source codes of the computer programs implementing these original automatic algorithms are given in the appendix and will be freely available on the web. The book contains clear statement of the conditions and the approximations under which the algorithms work, as well as the proper interpretation of their results. We illustrate the functioning of the analyzed algorithms by processing time series from astrophysics, finance, biophysics, and paleoclimatology. The numerical experiment method extensively used in our book is already in common use in computational and statistical physics.

  14. Time- versus Competency-Based Residency Training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Vu T; Losee, Joseph E

    2016-08-01

    Graduate medical education is at the brink of a paradigm shift in educating the next generation of physicians. Over 100 years ago, the Flexner report helped usher in the Halstedian residency, based on timed exposure and knowledge assessment as the cornerstones of medical education. The addition of operative case logs and respective board examinations to the current model of surgical education has served to establish practice minimums; however, they do not provide any assessment of actual operative capability or clinical competence. Although these facets have been tempered over time, one could argue that they currently exist only as surrogates for the true goal of all graduate medical education: the development of competent, graduating physicians, capable of independent and ethical practice. There now exists a growing body of evidence that competency-based medical education is this century's Flexnerian revolution. By the objective, subjective, and global assessment of competence, it is thought that we can more effectively and efficiently educate our trainees, provide much needed accountability to our individual patients and to the public as a whole, and establish a lasting model of self-motivated, lifelong learning.

  15. Time trend and age-period-cohort effects on acute myocardial infarction mortality in Korean adults from 1988 to 2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jhun, Hyung-Joon; Kim, Ho; Cho, Sung-Il

    2011-05-01

    We examined time trend and age-period-cohort effects on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) mortality in Korean adults from 1988 to 2007. Annual AMI mortality data and population statistics from 1988 to 2007 were obtained from the STATISTICS KOREA website. Age adjusted mortality for four 5-yr calendar periods (1988-1992 to 2003-2007) was calculated by direct standardization using the Year 2000 WHO world standard population. A log-linear Poisson regression model was used to estimate age, period, and cohort effects on AMI mortality. In both genders, age-adjusted AMI mortality increased from period one (1988-1992) to period three (1998-2002) but decreased in period four (2003-2007). An exponential age effect was noted in both genders. The rate ratio of the cohort effect increased up to the 1943 birth cohort and decreased gradually thereafter, and the rate ratio of the period effect increased up to period three (1998-2002) and decreased thereafter. Our results suggest that AMI mortality in Korean adults has decreased since the period 1998-2002 and age, period, and cohort effects have influenced on AMI mortality.

  16. Travel-time-based thermal tracer tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somogyvári, Márk; Bayer, Peter; Brauchler, Ralf

    2016-05-01

    Active thermal tracer testing is a technique to get information about the flow and transport properties of an aquifer. In this paper we propose an innovative methodology using active thermal tracers in a tomographic setup to reconstruct cross-well hydraulic conductivity profiles. This is facilitated by assuming that the propagation of the injected thermal tracer is mainly controlled by advection. To reduce the effects of density and viscosity changes and thermal diffusion, early-time diagnostics are used and specific travel times of the tracer breakthrough curves are extracted. These travel times are inverted with an eikonal solver using the staggered grid method to reduce constraints from the pre-defined grid geometry and to improve the resolution. Finally, non-reliable pixels are removed from the derived hydraulic conductivity tomograms. The method is applied to successfully reconstruct cross-well profiles as well as a 3-D block of a high-resolution fluvio-aeolian aquifer analog data set. Sensitivity analysis reveals a negligible role of the injection temperature, but more attention has to be drawn to other technical parameters such as the injection rate. This is investigated in more detail through model-based testing using diverse hydraulic and thermal conditions in order to delineate the feasible range of applications for the new tomographic approach.

  17. Interpreting Space-Based Trends in Carbon Monoxide with Multiple Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strode, Sarah A.; Worden, Helen M.; Damon, Megan; Douglass, Anne R.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Emmons, Louisa K.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Manyin, Michael; Oman, Luke D.; Rodriguez, Jose M.; Strahan, Susan E.; Tilmes, Simone

    2016-01-01

    We use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of timedependent emission inventories with observations. We find that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI), reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000-2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias in CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model-observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. These results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.

  18. Application of uncertainty reasoning based on cloud model in time series prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张锦春; 胡谷雨

    2003-01-01

    Time series prediction has been successfully used in several application areas, such as meteoro-logical forecasting, market prediction, network traffic forecasting, etc. , and a number of techniques have been developed for modeling and predicting time series. In the traditional exponential smoothing method, a fixed weight is assigned to data history, and the trend changes of time series are ignored. In this paper, an uncertainty reasoning method, based on cloud model, is employed in time series prediction, which uses cloud logic controller to adjust the smoothing coefficient of the simple exponential smoothing method dynamically to fit the current trend of the time series. The validity of this solution was proved by experiments on various data sets.

  19. Application of uncertainty reasoning based on cloud model in time series prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张锦春; 胡谷雨

    2003-01-01

    Time series prediction has been successfully used in several application areas, such as meteorological forecasting, market prediction, network traffic forecasting, etc., and a number of techniques have been developed for modeling and predicting time series. In the traditional exponential smoothing method, a fixed weight is assigned to data history, and the trend changes of time series are ignored. In this paper, an uncertainty reasoning method, based on cloud model, is employed in time series prediction, which uses cloud logic controller to adjust the smoothing coefficient of the simple exponential smoothing method dynamically to fit the current trend of the time series. The validity of this solution was proved by experiments on various data sets.

  20. Time trends in blood pressure, body mass index and smoking in the Vietnamese population: a meta-analysis from multiple cross-sectional surveys.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quang Ngoc Nguyen

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Data for trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors are needed to set priorities and evaluate intervention programmes in the community. We estimated time trends in blood pressure (BP, anthropometric variables and smoking in the Vietnamese population and highlighted the differences between men and women or between rural and urban areas. METHODS: A dataset of 23,563 adults aged 25-74 from 5 cross-sectional surveys undertaken within Vietnam from 2001 to 2009 by the Vietnam National Heart Institute was used to estimate mean BP, weight, waist circumference (WC, body mass index (BMI, the prevalence of hypertension, adiposity or smoking, which were standardised to the national age structure of 2009. Multilevel mixed linear models were used to estimate annual changes in the variables of interest, adjusted by age, sex, residential area, with random variations for age and surveyed provinces. FINDINGS: Among the adult population, the age-standardised mean systolic and diastolic BP increased by 0.8 and 0.3 mmHg in women, 1.1 and 0.4 mmHg in men, while the mean BMI increased by 0.1 kgm(-2 in women, 0.2 kgm(-2 in men per year. Consequently, the prevalence of hypertension and adiposity increased by 0.9 and 0.3% in women, 1.1 and 0.9% in men with similar time trends in both rural and urban areas, while smoking prevalence only increased in women by 0.3% per year. A U-shaped association was found between age-adjusted BP and BMI in both sexes and in both areas. CONCLUSIONS: From 2001 to 2009, mean BP, weight and WC significantly increased in the Vietnamese population, leading to an increased prevalence of hypertension and adiposity, suggesting the need for the development of multi-sectoral cost-effective population-based interventions to improve CVD management and prevention. The U-shaped relationship between BP and BMI highlighted the hypertension burden in the underweight population, which is usually neglected in CVD interventions.

  1. Trends in time to invasive examination and treatment from 2001 to 2009 in patients admitted first time with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction or unstable angina in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mårtensson, Solvej; Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte; Prescott, Eva

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate trends in time to invasive examination and treatment for patient with first time diagnosis of non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) and unstable angina during the period from 2001 to 2009 in Denmark. DESIGN: From 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2009 all first time...

  2. Interpretation of Research Evaluation Trends Based on REF%REF与科研评价趋向

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    宋丽萍

    2011-01-01

    通过分析英国高等教育评估体系从基于同行评议的RAE到基于文献计量的REF的变革,以REF为例探讨计量方法在科研评价中的应用,解读科学评价中两种主要方法之关系以及科研评价的趋向。指出:随着量化份额的增加,文献计量方法的正确应用将成为关键环节,以质量为导向的、同行评议与文献计量相结合的方法将成为未来科研评价的主流。%In the light of the change of UK higher education institutions from peer review based RAE to mainly metrics-based REF, and the application of bibliometrics to research assessment, the paper interpretates the trend of research evaluation and the relationship between the two main methods in it. It points out: with the increase of quantitative sharing, the correct application of bibliometric methods will be the key point, and quality-oriented, combining research assessment system between peer review and bibliometries will become the mainstream.

  3. Systems of evidence-based healthcare and personalised health information: some international and national trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, C; Gray, J A; Toth, B; Veloso, M

    2000-01-01

    In Europe, North America and elsewhere, growing interest has focussed on evidence-based healthcare systems, incorporating the deployment of practice guidelines, as a field of application for health telematics. The clinical benefit and technical feasibility of common European approaches to this task has recently been demonstrated. In Europe it is likely that, building on recent progress in electronic health record architecture (EHRA) standards, a sufficient state of maturity can be reached to justify initiation within CEN TC251 of a prestandards process on guideline content formats during the current 5th Framework of EC RT&D activity. There is now a similar impetus to agree standards for this field in North America. Thanks to fruitful EC-USA contacts during the 4th Framework programme, there is now a chance, given well-planned coordination, to establish a global consensus optimally suited to serve the world-wide delivery and application of evidence-based medicine. This review notes three factors which may accelerate progress to convergence: (1) revolutionary changes in the knowledge basis of professional/patient/public healthcare partnerships, involving the key role of the Web as a health knowledge resource for citizens, and a rapidly growing market for personalised health information and advice; (2) the emergence at national levels of digital warehouses of clinical guidelines and EBM knowledge resources, agencies which are capable of brokering common mark-up and interchange media definitions between knowledge providers, industry and healthcare organizations; (3) the closing gap in knowledge management technology, with the advent of XML and RDF, between approaches and services based respectively on text mark-up and knowledge-base paradigms. A current project in the UK National Health Service (the National electronic Library of Health) is cited as an example of a national initiative designed to harness these trends.

  4. Chaos Time Series Prediction Based on Membrane Optimization Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper puts forward a prediction model based on membrane computing optimization algorithm for chaos time series; the model optimizes simultaneously the parameters of phase space reconstruction (τ,m and least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM (γ,σ by using membrane computing optimization algorithm. It is an important basis for spectrum management to predict accurately the change trend of parameters in the electromagnetic environment, which can help decision makers to adopt an optimal action. Then, the model presented in this paper is used to forecast band occupancy rate of frequency modulation (FM broadcasting band and interphone band. To show the applicability and superiority of the proposed model, this paper will compare the forecast model presented in it with conventional similar models. The experimental results show that whether single-step prediction or multistep prediction, the proposed model performs best based on three error measures, namely, normalized mean square error (NMSE, root mean square error (RMSE, and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE.

  5. Spatio-temporal trends in the hydroclimate of Turkey for the last decades based on two reanalysis datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gokmen, Mustafa

    2016-09-01

    We present a regional assessment of the spatiotemporal trends in several hydro-climate variables from 1979 to 2010 in Turkey, one of the countries of the eastern Mediterranean vulnerable to climate change, using the two reanalysis products of the ECMWF: ERA-Interim and ERA-Interim/Land. The trend analysis revealed that an average warming of 1.26 °C [0.8-1.8] occurred in Turkey from 1979 to 2010, with high confidence intervals (95-99 %, mostly). Geographically, the largest warming (up to 1.8 °C) occurred in the western coastal areas next to the Aegean Sea and in the southeastern regions. The air temperature trends were generally confirmed by the in situ data from about 100 weather stations around the country, though in situ data indicated slightly higher trends ranging from 1 to 2.5°. With respect to the regional trends in hydrological variables, ERA-Interim and ERA-Interim/Land revealed quite different pictures: the ERA-Interim dataset indicated that there have been significant decreasing trends of precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE) and runoff in some parts of inner/southeastern Anatolia (a total decrease of up to 250 mm in the upstream of the Euphrates, Kizilirmak and Seyhan basins), while ERA-Interim/Land showed no or minor trends in the same areas. Based on the extensive comparisons with precipitation and SWE gauge data, we can suggest that the hydrological trends shown by the ERA-Interim/Land dataset, which is said to be a model improvement, are relatively closer to the observations. From the hydrological trends revealed by the ERA-Interim/Land dataset, we can conclude that, despite the strong warming trends over Turkey from 1979 to 2010, there have been no widespread and strong hydrological trends for the same period throughout the country. In this regard, we can suggest that the impacts of global warming on the water cycle are not straightforward, especially at the regional scale, and future climate simulations indicating considerable

  6. Time trends in the treatment and prognosis of resectable pancreatic cancer in a large tertiary referral centre

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barugola, Giuliano; Partelli, Stefano; Crippa, Stefano; Butturini, Giovanni; Salvia, Roberto; Sartori, Nora; Bassi, Claudio; Falconi, Massimo; Pederzoli, Paolo

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Mortality in pancreatic cancer has remained unchanged over the last 20–30 years. The aim of the present study was to analyse survival trends in a selected population of patients submitted to resection for pancreatic cancer at a single institution. Methods Included were 544 patients who underwent pancreatectomy for pancreatic cancer between 1990 and 2009. Patients were categorized into two subgroups according to the decade in which resection was performed (1990–1999 and 2000–2009). Predictors of survival were analysed using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results Totals of 114 (21%) and 430 (79%) resections were carried out during the periods 1990–1999 and 2000–2009, respectively (P < 0.0001). Hospital length of stay (16 days versus 10 days; P < 0.001) and postoperative mortality (3% versus 1%; P = 0.160) decreased over time. Median disease-specific survival significantly increased from 16 months in the first period to 29 months in the second period (P < 0.001). Following multivariate analysis, poorly differentiated tumour [hazard ratio (HR) 3.1, P < 0.001], lymph node metastases (HR = 1.9, P < 0.001), macroscopically positive margin (R2) resection (HR = 3.2, P < 0.0001), no adjuvant therapy (HR = 1.6, P < 0.001) and resection performed in the period 1990–1999 (HR = 2.18, P < 0.001) were significant independent predictors of a poor outcome. Conclusions Longterm survival after surgery for pancreatic cancer significantly improved over the period under study. Better patient selection and the routine use of adjuvant therapy may account for this improvement. PMID:23490217

  7. Trends in Prevalence and Characteristics of Post-Neonatal Cerebral Palsy Cases: A European Registry-Based Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germany, Laurence; Ehlinger, Virginie; Klapouszczak, Dana; Delobel, Malika; Hollody, Katalin; Sellier, Elodie; De La Cruz, Javier; Alberge, Corine; Genolini, Christophe; Arnaud, Catherine

    2013-01-01

    The present paper aims to analyze trends over time in prevalence of cerebral palsy of post-neonatal origin, to investigate whether changes are similar according to severity and to describe the disability profile by etiology. Post-neonatal cases, birth years 1976 to 1998, were identified from the Surveillance of Cerebral Palsy in Europe…

  8. Report on RecSys 2015 Workshop on New Trends in Content-Based Recommender Systems (CBRecSys 2015)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bogers, Toine; Koolen, Marijn

    2016-01-01

    This article reports on the CBRecSys 2015 workshop, the second edition of the workshop on new trends in content-based recommender systems, co-located with RecSys 2015 in Vienna, Austria. Content-based recommendation has been applied successfully in many different domains, but it has not seen the ...... venue for work dedicated to all aspects of content-based recommender systems....

  9. Recent Trends in Rapid Environmental Monitoring of Pathogens and Toxicants: Potential of Nanoparticle-Based Biosensor and Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Preeyaporn Koedrith

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Of global concern, environmental pollution adversely affects human health and socioeconomic development. The presence of environmental contaminants, especially bacterial, viral, and parasitic pathogens and their toxins as well as chemical substances, poses serious public health concerns. Nanoparticle-based biosensors are considered as potential tools for rapid, specific, and highly sensitive detection of the analyte of interest (both biotic and abiotic contaminants. In particular, there are several limitations of conventional detection methods for water-borne pathogens due to low concentrations and interference with various enzymatic inhibitors in the environmental samples. The increase of cells to detection levels requires long incubation time. This review describes current state of biosensor nanotechnology, the advantage over conventional detection methods, and the challenges due to testing of environmental samples. The major approach is to use nanoparticles as signal reporter to increase output rather than spending time to increase cell concentrations. Trends in future development of novel detection devices and their advantages over other environmental monitoring methodologies are also discussed.

  10. A New-Trend Model-Based to Solve the Peak Power Problems in OFDM Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashraf A. Eltholth

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The high peak to average power ration (PAR levels of orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM signals attract the attention of many researchers during the past decade. Existing approaches that attack this PAR issue are abundant, but no systematic framework or comparison between them exists to date. They sometimes even differ in the problem definition itself and consequently in the basic approach to follow. In this paper, we propose a new trend in mitigating the peak power problem in OFDM system based on modeling the effects of clipping and amplifier nonlinearities in an OFDM system. We showed that the distortion due to these effects is highly related to the dynamic range itself rather than the clipping level or the saturation level of the nonlinear amplifier, and thus we propose two criteria to reduce the dynamic range of the OFDM, namely, the use of MSK modulation and the use of Hadamard transform. Computer simulations of the OFDM system using Matlab are completely matched with the deduced model in terms of OFDM signal quality metrics such as BER, ACPR, and EVM. Also simulation results show that even the reduction of PAR using the two proposed criteria is not significat, and the reduction in the amount of distortion due to HPA is truley delightful.

  11. Time-trends in the utilization of decentralized mental health services in Norway - A natural experiment: The VELO-project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bjorbekkmo Svein

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There are few reports on the effects of extensive decentralization of mental health services. We investigated the total patterns of utilization in a local-bed model and a central-bed model. Methods In a time-trend case-registry design, 7635 single treatment episodes, from the specialist and municipality services in 2003-2006, were linked to 2975 individual patients over all administrative levels. Patterns of utilization were analyzed by univariate comparisons and multivariate regressions. Results Total treated prevalence was consistently higher for the central-bed system. Outpatient utilization increased markedly, in the central-bed system. Utilization of psychiatric beds decreased, only in the central-bed system. Utilization of highly supported municipality units increased in both systems. Total utilization of all types of services, showed an additive pattern in the local-bed system and a substitutional pattern in the central-bed system. Only severe diagnoses predicted inpatient admission in the central-bed system, whereas also anxiety-disorders and outpatient consultations predicted inpatient admission in the local-bed system. Characteristics of the inpatient populations changed markedly over time, in the local-bed system. Conclusions Geographical availability is not important as a filter in patients' pathway to inpatient care, and the association between distance to hospital and utilization of psychiatric beds may be an historical artefact. Under a public health-insurance system, local psychiatric personnel as gatekeepers for inpatient care may be of greater importance than the availability of local psychiatric beds. Specialist psychiatric beds and highly supported municipality units for people with mental health problems do not work together in terms of utilization. Outpatient and day-hospital services may be filters in the pathway to inpatient care, however this depends on the structure of the whole service-system. Local

  12. Time trends in incidence and prognosis of primary liver cancer and liver metastases of unknown origin in a Danish region, 1985-2004

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erichsen, Rune; Jepsen, Peter; Jacobsen, Jacob;

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Changes, over the last 20 years, in the diagnostic procedures and treatment of primary liver cancer (PLC) and liver metastases of unknown origin (LMUO) may have affected the clinical course of both cancers. Few longitudinal studies examined this issue. In a population-based setting, we...... studied changes in the incidence and prognosis of PLC and LMUO over time. METHODS: Between 1985 and 2004, we identified 2675 patients with PLC and LMUO in three Danish counties, with a population of 1.4 million. We computed the standardized incidence rate (SIR), ratio of PLC to LMUO diagnoses, median...... survival, and estimated mortality rate ratio adjusted for age, sex, and comorbidity. RESULTS: The SIR of PLC increased from 3.2 in 1985 to 5.0 in 2003, and the SIR of LMUO increased from 3.7 to 6.4. No increase was noted in the PLC-to-LMUO ratio over time (P=0.1 for trend). From 1985 to 2004, the median...

  13. Socio-economic position and time trends in invasive management and case fatality after acute myocardial infarction in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mårtensson, Solvej; Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte; Prescott, Eva;

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Lower case fatality and increased use of evidence-based invasive management incl. coronary angiography (CAG) have been reported for patients admitted with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in the last 25 years. This article seeks to investigate whether these advances have benefitted...... on education. Age-standardized cumulative incidence of CAG within 1, 3 and 30 days along with age-standardized case fatality within 30 and 365 days were estimated. Cox regression models were used to model the relative inequality over time. RESULTS: Use of CAG within 1, 3 and 30 days increased for all...... educational groups over time and the inequality in CAG within 1 and 3 days seen in the beginning of the time frame was eliminated. Case fatality decreased in all educational groups and the relative inequality in 30 days case fatality decreased for women but not 365 days case fatality. No change was seen...

  14. PC-based trending and analysis of floor vibration in sensitive fabrication areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palm, Jon E.; Middleton, Ben

    1992-02-01

    This paper describes a floor monitoring system utilizing a PC that continuously monitors very low levels of vibration and warns the user of possible " vibration contamination" that might result. The floor monitoring system designed by DataSignal Systems Inc. in Friendswood Texas is a complete package including special purpose microvelocity sensors signal conditioning and band specific velocity detection electronics analog-todigital sampling vibration spectrum analysis parameter trending alarming and archiving measurements. An IBM or compatible computer runs the systems software and displays the measured results. The computer can be installed in a convenient location for ease of use and maintenance. In order to maximize its effectiveness for alarms and ease of data display interpretation a VGA color monitor is a must. Since the system monitors facility vibration continuously the computer must be dedicated and not time shared. 2 . MEASURE MICRO-VIBRATION In many of todays high technology manufacturing facilities vibration can have a costly impact on the process and quality of an operation. This system can be set to alarm at vibration levels determined to be critical allowing an operator to take appropriate steps including date and time coding the process or even stopping the process. The system can also be used to establish limits for manufacturing operations in an adjoining facility that causes structure borne vibration to be transmitted to the vibration sensitive manufacturing area. Up to eight micro velocity sensor can be monitored simultaneously with results being displayed in a bar chart format on the computer screen. For detailed analysis purposes to help identify the source of vibration a narrowband FFT processor is used to display a vibration spectrum from a selected sensors output signal. The vibration spectrum analysis capability can be manually activated or be automatically acquired upon an alarm condition. 0819407577/92J$4. OO SPIE Vol. 1619 Vibration

  15. Time trends in exposure of cattle to bovine spongiform encephalopathy and cohort effect in France and Italy: value of the classical Age-Period-Cohort approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ru Giuseppe

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Age-Period-Cohort (APC analysis is routinely used for time trend analysis of cancer incidence or mortality rates, but in veterinary epidemiology, there are still only a few examples of this application. APC models were recently used to model the French epidemic assuming that the time trend for BSE was mainly due to a cohort effect in relation to the control measures that may have modified the BSE exposure of cohorts over time. We used a categorical APC analysis which did not require any functional form for the effect of the variables, and examined second differences to estimate the variation of the BSE trend. We also reanalysed the French epidemic and performed a simultaneous analysis of Italian data using more appropriate birth cohort categories for comparison. Results We used data from the exhaustive surveillance carried out in France and Italy between 2001 and 2007, and comparatively described the trend of the epidemic in both countries. At the end, the shape and irregularities of the trends were discussed in light of the main control measures adopted to control the disease. In Italy a decrease in the epidemic became apparent from 1996, following the application of rendering standards for the processing of specific risk material (SRM. For the French epidemic, the pattern of second differences in the birth cohorts confirmed the beginning of the decrease from 1995, just after the implementation of the meat and bone meal (MBM ban for all ruminants (1994. Conclusion The APC analysis proved to be highly suitable for the study of the trend in BSE epidemics and was helpful in understanding the effects of management and control of the disease. Additionally, such an approach may help in the implementation of changes in BSE regulations.

  16. The Trend of Body Donation for Education Based on Korean Social and Religious Culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong-Tae; Jang, Yoonsun; Park, Min Sun; Pae, Calvin; Park, Jinyi; Hu, Kyung-Seok; Park, Jin-Seo; Han, Seung-Ho; Koh, Ki-Seok; Kim, Hee-Jin

    2011-01-01

    Until a century ago, Korean medicine was based mainly on Oriental philosophies and ideas. From a religious perspective, Chinese Confucianism was prevalent in Korea at that time. Since Confucianists believe that it is against one's filial duty to harm his or her body, given to them by their parents, most Koreans did not donate their bodies or…

  17. The Emergence of University-Based Education Policy Centers. ERIC/CEM Trends and Issues Series, Number 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, Martha M.; Hall, Gayle C.

    A closeup look is provided of a trend in the field of educational policy in the 1980's: the establishment of university-based centers that have a mission of providing state policymakers with nonpartisan, reliable data on education policy options. The development and characteristics of education policy centers are examined. The first section…

  18. Ozone tropospheric and stratospheric trends (1995-2008) over Western Europe from ground-based FTIR network observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigouroux, Corinne; Demoulin, Philippe; Blumenstock, Thomas; Schneider, Matthias; Klyft, Jon; Palm, Mathias; Gardiner, Tom

    2010-05-01

    Five ground-based stations in Western Europe, from 79°N to 28°N, all part of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC), have joined their efforts to homogenize and optimize the retrievals of ozone profiles from FTIR (Fourier transform infrared) solar absorption spectra. Using the optimal estimation method, distinct vertical information can be obtained in four layers: ground--10 km, 10--18 km, 18--27 km, and 27--42 km, in addition to total column amounts. A bootstrap resampling method has been implemented to determine annual partial and total column trends1. Vigouroux et al. (2008)2 applied this method to the ozone data and discussed the trends of the total columns and of the partial columns in the above four layers, over the period 1995-2004. Here, we present and discuss an update of this analysis for the 1995-2008 period. We obtain, among others, that at all the stations, the ozone total columns trends are non significant while the trends in the upper stratospheric layer (27-42 km) are significantly positive. 1 Gardiner, T., Forbes, A., Woods, P., De Mazière, M., Vigouroux, C., Mahieu, E., Demoulin, P., Velazco, V., Notholt, J., Blumenstock, T., Hase, F., Kramer, I., Sussmann, R., Stremme, W., Mellqvist, J., Strandberg, A., Ellingsen, K., and Gauss, M.: Method for evaluating trends in greenhouse gases from ground-based remote FTIR measurements over Europe, ACP, 8, 6719-6727, 2008. 2 Vigouroux, C., De Mazière, M., Demoulin, P., Servais, C., Hase, F., Blumenstock, T., Kramer, I., Schneider, M., Mellqvist, J., Strandberg, A., Velazco, V., Notholt, J., Sussmann, R., Stremme, W., Rockmann, A., Gardiner, T., Coleman, M., and Woods, P. : Evaluation of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone trends over Western Europe from ground-based FTIR network observations, ACP, 8, 6865-6886, 2008.

  19. Biomaterials based strategies for skeletal muscle tissue engineering: existing technologies and future trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qazi, Taimoor H; Mooney, David J; Pumberger, Matthias; Geissler, Sven; Duda, Georg N

    2015-01-01

    Skeletal muscles have a robust capacity to regenerate, but under compromised conditions, such as severe trauma, the loss of muscle functionality is inevitable. Research carried out in the field of skeletal muscle tissue engineering has elucidated multiple intrinsic mechanisms of skeletal muscle repair, and has thus sought to identify various types of cells and bioactive factors which play an important role during regeneration. In order to maximize the potential therapeutic effects of cells and growth factors, several biomaterial based strategies have been developed and successfully implemented in animal muscle injury models. A suitable biomaterial can be utilized as a template to guide tissue reorganization, as a matrix that provides optimum micro-environmental conditions to cells, as a delivery vehicle to carry bioactive factors which can be released in a controlled manner, and as local niches to orchestrate in situ tissue regeneration. A myriad of biomaterials, varying in geometrical structure, physical form, chemical properties, and biofunctionality have been investigated for skeletal muscle tissue engineering applications. In the current review, we present a detailed summary of studies where the use of biomaterials favorably influenced muscle repair. Biomaterials in the form of porous three-dimensional scaffolds, hydrogels, fibrous meshes, and patterned substrates with defined topographies, have each displayed unique benefits, and are discussed herein. Additionally, several biomaterial based approaches aimed specifically at stimulating vascularization, innervation, and inducing contractility in regenerating muscle tissues are also discussed. Finally, we outline promising future trends in the field of muscle regeneration involving a deeper understanding of the endogenous healing cascades and utilization of this knowledge for the development of multifunctional, hybrid, biomaterials which support and enable muscle regeneration under compromised conditions.

  20. Understanding Evapotranspiration Trends and their Driving Mechanisms: An investigation across CONUS based on numerical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parr, D.; Wang, G.; Fu, C.

    2015-12-01

    As shown by climate models, increasing global temperatures and enhanced greenhouse gas concentration such as CO2 have had major effects on the dynamics of the hydrologic cycle and the surface energy budget, in particular, on evapotranspiration (ET). ET has significant decadal variations whether it be regionally or globally and variations of ET have major environmental and socioeconomic impacts. A number of recent studies have found a global increase in annual mean ET around 7mm per year per decade from about 1982 to the late 1990s. These results correspond with what is expected from an intensification of the hydrological cycle. However, the increasing ET trend did not continue after 1998 and from 1998-2008 this global trend was replaced with a decreasing trend of similar magnitude. This study uses numerical modeling to investigate if similar changing ET trends emerge in the continental U.S and part of northern Mexico. After validating model simulated evaporative fluxes and comparing spatial patterns to the aforementioned studies, various changing trends of different signs are identified across the U.S., and specific regions with strong signals of change are chosen for further examination with the purpose of identifying the root causes of these changing trends and which variables are most influential towards change. Experimental simulations conducted to isolate the most influential factors towards ET reveal that precipitation amount as well as its characteristics have the greatest impact on the ET trends discovered, with other factors like wind and air temperatures displaying less influence over inter-annual trends. This study helps better understand terrestrial ET and it's interactions which will help facilitate better predictions of change in surface climate such as heatwaves and droughts as well as impacts on water resources.

  1. The nutritional status of children in Bhutan: results from the 2008 National nutrition survey and trends over time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zangmo Ugyen

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There are few reports on the nutritional status of Bhutanese children. The objective of this paper is to summarize results from the 2008 National Nutrition Survey and to describe progress achieved during the last two decades. Methods A cross-sectional survey of 2376 children aged 6 to 59 months was conducted during November-December 2008 to provide national and regional estimates. A multi-stage cluster sampling method was applied and 40 gewogs/thromdes were selected from each region (Western, Central, Eastern. Guidelines on how to measure length/height and weight followed WHO standardized procedures. Data were analysed for consistency and validation using the software WHO Anthro and the WHO SPSS macro. Underweight, stunting, overweight, wasting and thinness were defined based on the WHO Child Growth Standards. Data from 1986-88 and 1999 national surveys were reanalysed using the WHO standards to describe trends in nutritional status. Results Nationally, 34.9% Bhutanese preschool children are stunted and 10.4% are underweight. Wasting is 4.7%, with severe wasting close to 2% in rural areas, while overweight affects 4.4% of preschool children. While underweight rates are similar across regions, wasting is substantially more prevalent in the Western region and stunting in the Eastern region. Stunting shows a steep rise during the first two years of life, as high as 40%, and levels off thereafter, while wasting is greatest among children aged 6-24 months and subsequently decreases. The prevalence of stunting fell from 60.9% in 1986-88 to 34.9% in 2008, and underweight declined from 34.0% to 10.4% during same period. The percentage of wasted children dropped from 5.2% in 1986-88 to 2.5% in 1999 but then increased to 4.7% in 2008. Conclusions There have been major improvements in the nutritional status of Bhutanese children over the past two decades, however, linear growth retardation remains a significant concern. Early

  2. Document stream clustering: experimenting an incremental algorithm and AR-based tools for highlighting dynamic trends

    CERN Document Server

    Lelu, Alain; Cuxac, Pascal

    2008-01-01

    We address here two major challenges presented by dynamic data mining: 1) the stability challenge: we have implemented a rigorous incremental density-based clustering algorithm, independent from any initial conditions and ordering of the data-vectors stream, 2) the cognitive challenge: we have implemented a stringent selection process of association rules between clusters at time t-1 and time t for directly generating the main conclusions about the dynamics of a data-stream. We illustrate these points with an application to a two years and 2600 documents scientific information database.

  3. Recent advances, trends and new perspectives via enthalpy-based finite element formulations for applications to solidification problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamma, Kumar K.; Namburu, Raju R.

    1990-01-01

    The present paper describes recent advances and trends in finite element developments and applications for solidification problems. In particular, in comparison to traditional methods of approach, new enthalpy-based architectures based on a generalized trapezoidal family of representations are presented which provide different perspectives, physical interpretation and solution architectures for effective numerical simulation of phase change processes encountered in solidification problems. Various numerical test models are presented and the results support the proposition for employing such formulations for general phase change applications.

  4. De-trending of turbulence measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

    2007-01-01

    Traditionally, turbulence is considered as a stationary stochastic process imposed on a given constant mean wind speed. However, measured (raw) turbulence intensities often display the characteristics of a non-stationary process, where the mean wind speed changes slowly with time. The change...... in mean wind speed appears as a trend in the wind speed time series, and often a linear trend is assumed. Wind resource measurements typically include statistics of ten-minute mean and standard deviation, and for such data it is not possible to calculate the trend contribution directly, because...... this requires access to the basic time-series. However, including a suitable modelling of the mean wind speed time variation, it is possible to estimate an approximate (linear) trend correction based on statistical data only. This paper presents such an algorithm for de-trending of turbulence standard deviation...

  5. Main Trend Extraction Based on Irregular Sampling Estimation and Its Application in Storage Volume of Internet Data Center

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beibei Miao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The storage volume of internet data center is one of the classical time series. It is very valuable to predict the storage volume of a data center for the business value. However, the storage volume series from a data center is always “dirty,” which contains the noise, missing data, and outliers, so it is necessary to extract the main trend of storage volume series for the future prediction processing. In this paper, we propose an irregular sampling estimation method to extract the main trend of the time series, in which the Kalman filter is used to remove the “dirty” data; then the cubic spline interpolation and average method are used to reconstruct the main trend. The developed method is applied in the storage volume series of internet data center. The experiment results show that the developed method can estimate the main trend of storage volume series accurately and make great contribution to predict the future volume value.

  6. Performance Analysis Based on Timing Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Christian Dalsgaard; Kishinevsky, Michael

    1994-01-01

    Determining the cycle time and a critical cycle is a fundamental problem in the analysis of concurrent systems. We solve this problemusing timing simulation of an underlying Signal Graph (an extension of Marked Graphs). For a Signal Graph with n vertices and m arcs our algorithm has the polynomia...... time complexity O(b2m), where b is the number of vertices with initially marked in-arcs (typically b≪n). The algorithm has a clear semantic and a low descriptive complexity. We illustrate the use of the algorithm by applying it to performance analysis of asynchronous circuits.......Determining the cycle time and a critical cycle is a fundamental problem in the analysis of concurrent systems. We solve this problemusing timing simulation of an underlying Signal Graph (an extension of Marked Graphs). For a Signal Graph with n vertices and m arcs our algorithm has the polynomial...

  7. Are Time- and Event-based Prospective Memory Comparably Affected in HIV Infection?†

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zogg, Jennifer B.; Woods, Steven Paul; Weber, Erica; Doyle, Katie; Grant, Igor; Atkinson, J. Hampton; Ellis, Ronald J.; McCutchan, J. Allen; Marcotte, Thomas D.; Hale, Braden R.; Ellis, Ronald J.; McCutchan, J. Allen; Letendre, Scott; Capparelli, Edmund; Schrier, Rachel; Heaton, Robert K.; Cherner, Mariana; Moore, David J.; Jernigan, Terry; Fennema-Notestine, Christine; Archibald, Sarah L.; Hesselink, John; Annese, Jacopo; Taylor, Michael J.; Masliah, Eliezer; Everall, Ian; Langford, T. Dianne; Richman, Douglas; Smith, David M.; McCutchan, J. Allen; Everall, Ian; Lipton, Stuart; McCutchan, J. Allen; Atkinson, J. Hampton; Ellis, Ronald J.; Letendre, Scott; Atkinson, J. Hampton; von Jaeger, Rodney; Gamst, Anthony C.; Cushman, Clint; Masys, Daniel R.; Abramson, Ian; Ake, Christopher; Vaida, Florin

    2011-01-01

    According to the multi-process theory of prospective memory (ProM), time-based tasks rely more heavily on strategic processes dependent on prefrontal systems than do event-based tasks. Given the prominent frontostriatal pathophysiology of HIV infection, one would expect HIV-infected individuals to demonstrate greater deficits in time-based versus event-based ProM. However, the two prior studies examining this question have produced variable results. We evaluated this hypothesis in 143 individuals with HIV infection and 43 demographically similar seronegative adults (HIV−) who completed the research version of the Memory for Intentions Screening Test, which yields parallel subscales of time- and event-based ProM. Results showed main effects of HIV serostatus and cue type, but no interaction between serostatus and cue. Planned pair-wise comparisons showed a significant effect of HIV on time-based ProM and a trend-level effect on event-based ProM that was driven primarily by the subset of participants with HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders. Nevertheless, time-based ProM was more strongly correlated with measures of executive functions, attention/working memory, and verbal fluency in HIV-infected persons. Although HIV-associated deficits in time- and event-based ProM appear to be of comparable severity, the cognitive architecture of time-based ProM may be more strongly influenced by strategic monitoring and retrieval processes. PMID:21459901

  8. Contemporary Trends in the Acid-Base Status of the Two Acid-Sensitive Streams in Western Maryland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eshleman, Keith N.; Kline, Kathleen M.; Morgan, Raymond P., II; Castro, Nancy M.; Negley, Timothy L.

    2008-01-01

    Recovery of streamwater acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) resulting from declines in regional acid deposition was examined using contemporary (1990-2005) data from two long-term monitoring stations located on the Appalachian Plateau in western Maryland, U.S. Two computational methods were used to estimate daily, monthly, and annual fluxes and discharge-weighted concentrations of ANC, sulfate, nitrate, and base cations over the period of record, and two statistical methods were used to evaluate long-term trends in fluxes and concentrations. The methods used to estimate concentrations, as well as the, statistical techniques, produced very similar results, underlining the robustness of the identified trends. We found clear evidence that streamwater sulfate concentrations have declined at an average rate of about 3 (microns)eq L(exp -1) yr(exp -1) at the two sites due to a 34% reduction in wet atmospheric sulfur deposition. Trends in nitrate concentrations appear to be related to other watershed factors, especially forest disturbance. The best evidence of recovery is based on a doubling of ANC (from 21 to 42 (microns)eq L(exp -1) at the more acid-sensitive site over the 16-year period. A slowing, or possible reversal, in the sulfate, nitrate, and SBC trends is evident in our data and may portend a decline in the rate of--or end to--further recovery.

  9. Time trends and predictors of mortality from ill-defined causes in old age: 9 year follow-up of the Bambuí cohort study (Brazil).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima-Costa, Maria Fernanda; Matos, Divane Leite; Laurenti, Ruy; Mello-Jorge, Maria Helena Prado de; Cesar, Cibele Comini

    2010-03-01

    The study objective was to examine differentials in time trends and predictors of deaths assigned to symptoms, signs and ill-defined conditions in comparison with other ill-defined conditions (ill-defined cardiovascular diseases, cancer and injury) in a population-based cohort study. Of 1,606 baseline participants aged 60 years and over, 524 died during 9-year follow-up and were included in this study. Deaths coded to "symptoms" declined by 77% in the period from 1997-1999 to 2003-2005. Deaths coded to other ill-defined conditions remained unchanged. The calendar period 2003-2005 (RR = 0.25; 95%CI: 0.09-0.70) and in-hospital deaths (RR = 0.16; 95%CI: 0.08-0.34) were independently associated with "symptoms", but not with other ill-defined conditions. Baseline socio-demographic characteristics and chronic diseases were not predictors of these outcomes. International and national agencies have focused on the reduction of deaths assigned to "symptoms" to improve the registration of vital statistics, while other ill-defined conditions have received little attention. Our data provide evidence supporting the need to redress this situation.

  10. CUDA-based real time surgery simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Youquan; De, Suvranu

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we present a general software platform that enables real time surgery simulation on the newly available compute unified device architecture (CUDA)from NVIDIA. CUDA-enabled GPUs harness the power of 128 processors which allow data parallel computations. Compared to the previous GPGPU, it is significantly more flexible with a C language interface. We report implementation of both collision detection and consequent deformation computation algorithms. Our test results indicate that the CUDA enables a twenty times speedup for collision detection and about fifteen times speedup for deformation computation on an Intel Core 2 Quad 2.66 GHz machine with GeForce 8800 GTX.

  11. Tendências temporais de atividade física no Brasil (2006-2009 Time trends of physical activity in Brazil (2006-2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro C Hallal

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Analisar as tendências temporais de atividade física (AF nas capitais brasileiras entre 2006 e 2009. MÉTODOS: A análise apresentada neste artigo é baseada nos dados do VIGITEL, totalizando uma amostra anual aproximada de 54.000 indivíduos. Foram analisados indicadores de AF no tempo livre, trabalho, em casa e no deslocamento, além do tempo assistindo à televisão e de inatividade considerando todos os domínios de AF. A variação dos indicadores no período foi aferida por meio de modelos de regressão de Poisson, tendo como variável explanatória o ano do inquérito. Foi considerada significativa a evolução correspondente a um coeficiente de regressão diferente de zero (pOBJECTIVE: To examine time trends in physical activity (PA in Brazilian state capitals from 2006 to 2009. METHODS: This analysis is based on data from the Telephone-based Surveillance of Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases (VIGITEL accounting for an annual sample of approximately 54,000 individuals. PA indicators were analyzed in free time (leisure, work, home and transportation, time spent in front of the television and inactivity considering all PA domains. Poisson regression models were used to measure the variation of indicators over time. We considered the changes corresponding to a regression coefficient different from zero as being statistically significant (p<0.05. RESULTS: The percentage of active commuters increased from 11.7 to 14.4% (p<0.001 whereas the proportion of physically inactive individuals in the four domains decreased from 11.7 to 8.7% (p<0.001. There were no significant changes in the other indicators. Women were less active than men in all indicators, except for household chores. However, in this indicator the percentage of active women decreased from 71.4 to 67.1% (p<0.001. Between 2006 and 2009, PA levels in the Brazilian population were stable during free time and household chores, but increased in transportation

  12. Time is on whose side? Time trends in the association between maternal social disadvantage and offspring fetal growth. A study of 1,409,339 births in Denmark 1981-2004

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Laust H; Diderichsen, Finn; Davey-Smith, George;

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Fetal growth is highly socially patterned and is related to health across the life course, but how the social patterns of fetal growth change over time remains understudied. We examined the time trends in maternal social disadvantage in relation to fetal growth in the context of a univ......OBJECTIVE: Fetal growth is highly socially patterned and is related to health across the life course, but how the social patterns of fetal growth change over time remains understudied. We examined the time trends in maternal social disadvantage in relation to fetal growth in the context...... motherhood (-0.14), single motherhood (-0.13), poverty (-0.12) and weakest for unemployment (-0.04). The deficit in fetal growth increased over time for all associations except for unemployment. Also, the measures of social adversity increasingly clustered within individuals over time. CONCLUSION: Maternal...

  13. Time trends in cardiovascular disease mortality in Russia and Germany from 1980 to 2007 - are there migration effects?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deckert Andreas

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD is the leading cause of death in the industrialized world. Large variations in CVD mortality between countries and also between population subgroups within countries have been observed. Previous studies showed significantly lower risks in German repatriates and Jews emigrating from Russia than in the general Russian population. We examined to what degree the migration of large subgroups influenced national CVD mortality rates. Methods We used WHO data to map the CVD mortality distribution in Europe in 2005. Supplemented by data of the Statistisches Bundesamt, the mortality trends in three major CVD groups between 1980 and 2007 in Russia and Germany are displayed, as well as demographic information. The effects of migration on demography were estimated and percentage changes in CVD mortality trends were calculated under the assumption that migration had not occurred. Results Cardiovascular disease mortality patterns within Europe showed a strong west-east gradient with ratios up to sixfold. In Germany, the CVD mortality levels were low and steadily decreasing, whereas in Russia they fluctuated at high levels with substantial differences between the sexes and strong correlations with political changes and health campaigns. The trends in both Russia and Germany were affected by the migration that occurred in both countries over recent decades. However, our restricted focus in only adjusting for the migration of German repatriates and Jews had moderate effects on the national CVD mortality statistics in Germany (+1.0% and Russia (-0.6%. Conclusions The effects on CVD mortality rates due to migration in Germany and Russia were smaller than those due to secular economical changes. However, migration should still be considered as a factor influencing national mortality trends.

  14. Sediment transport modelling based on grain size trend analysis in Augusta Harbour (Sicily)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbera, Giuseppe; Feo, Roberto; Freni, Gabriele

    2015-12-01

    To support marine civil engineer in pollutant studies, sediment management or dredging operations, is useful to know how the sediments move in accumulation basin. This paper investigates the dynamic of the sediment path using a two-dimensional numeric model: the Grain Size Trend Analysis (GSTA). The GSTA was applied using GiSedTrend plugin, under GIS software. The case study is the Augusta Harbour, which is one of the most polluted Italian harbours. It is the marine part of the Site of National Interest (SNI) of Priolo Gargallo (Siracusa, Italy) and it can be hydrodynamically considered as a lagoon. Two scenarios were obtained by using different geostatistical criteria.

  15. Time trends in leisure time physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption and body mass index in Danish adults with and without COPD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henrik; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Molsted, Stig

    2016-01-01

    , alcohol consumption and body mass index (BMI) from 2000 to 2010 in Danish individuals with and without COPD. METHODS: Analyses were based on data provided by The Danish Health and Morbidity's three cross-sectional surveys from 2000, 2005 and 2010. Data compromised level of leisure time PA, smoking......, alcohol consumption, BMI and sociodemographic characteristics. Participants aged 25 years or older with and without COPD were included in the analyses. RESULTS: In multiple logistic regression analyses, odds ratio (OR) of being physically active in the leisure time in 2010 compared to 2000 was 1.70 (95.......001, and 0.74 kg · m(-2) (0.63-0.86), p relationship were more likely to be physically active, non-smoking and not exceeding the recommended alcohol limits. CONCLUSION: From...

  16. A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF FORECASTING MODELS FOR TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES DOES COMPLEX MODEL ALWAYS YIELD BETTER FORECAST THAN SIMPLE MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suhartono Suhartono

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Many business and economic time series are non-stationary time series that contain trend and seasonal variations. Seasonality is a periodic and recurrent pattern caused by factors such as weather, holidays, or repeating promotions. A stochastic trend is often accompanied with the seasonal variations and can have a significant impact on various forecasting methods. In this paper, we will investigate and compare some forecasting methods for modeling time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. These methods are Winter's, Decomposition, Time Series Regression, ARIMA and Neural Networks models. In this empirical research, we study on the effectiveness of the forecasting performance, particularly to answer whether a complex method always give a better forecast than a simpler method. We use a real data, that is airline passenger data. The result shows that the more complex model does not always yield a better result than a simpler one. Additionally, we also find the possibility to do further research especially the use of hybrid model by combining some forecasting method to get better forecast, for example combination between decomposition (as data preprocessing and neural network model.

  17. The Effects of Inquiry-Based Integrated Information Literacy Instruction: Four-Year Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Ching Chen

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of four-year integrated information literacy instruction via a framework of inquiry-based learning on elementary students’ memory and comprehension. Moderating factors of students’ academic achievement was another focus of this study. The subjects were 72 students who have participated in this study since they entered an elementary school in Chiayi district. This elementary school adopted the integrated information literacy instruction, designed by the researchers and elementary school teachers, and integrated it into various subject matters via a framework of inquiry-based learning, such as Super 3 and Big6 models. A series of inquiry-based integrated information literacy instruction has been implemented since the second semester of the subjects’ first grade. A total of seven inquiry learning projects has been implemented from grade one through grade four. Fourteen instruments were used as pretests and posttests to assess students’ factual recall and conceptual understanding of subject contents in different projects. The results showed that inquiry-based integrated information literacy instruction couldhelp students memorize facts and comprehend concepts of subject contents. Regardless ofacademic achievements, if students would like to devote their efforts to inquiry processes, their memory and comprehension of subject contents improvedeffectively. However, students of low-academic achievement might need more time to be familiar with the inquiry-based learning strategy.

  18. Hysterectomy on benign indication in Denmark 1988-1998. A register based trend analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gimbel, H; Settnes, A; Tabor, A

    2001-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The aims of the study were to describe the trends in Danish hysterectomy rates from 1988 to 1998 for operations done on benign indication. METHODS: Data from all women (n=67,096) undergoing hysterectomy from 1988 to 1998 were obtained from the Danish National Patient Register. Data on...

  19. Building the Youth Mentoring Knowledge Base: Publishing Trends and Coauthorship Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blakeslee, Jennifer E.; Keller, Thomas E.

    2012-01-01

    Despite the long history and widespread popularity of youth mentoring, only in the past two decades has an academic literature emerged to support the development of program policies and practices. This study examines knowledge development in the field of youth mentoring, with special attention to trends in the number and nature of articles…

  20. Long term trends in prevalence of neural tube defects in Europe : population based study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khoshnood, Babak; Loane, Maria; de Walle, Hermien; Arriola, Larraitz; Addor, Marie-Claude; Barisic, Ingeborg; Beres, Judit; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Dias, Carlos; Draper, Elizabeth; Garne, Ester; Gatt, Miriam; Haeusler, Martin; Klungsoyr, Kari; Latos-Bielenska, Anna; Lynch, Catherine; McDonnell, Bob; Nelen, Vera; Neville, Amanda J.; O'Mahony, Mary T.; Queisser-Luft, Annette; Rankin, Judith; Rissmann, Anke; Ritvanen, Annukka; Rounding, Catherine; Sipek, Antonin; Tucker, David; Verellen-Dumoulin, Christine; Wellesley, Diana; Dolk, Helen

    2015-01-01

    STUDY QUESTION What are the long term trends in the total (live births, fetal deaths, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly) and live birth prevalence of neural tube defects (NTD) in Europe, where many countries have issued recommendations for folic acid supplementation but a policy for ma

  1. Trend analysis and survival of primary gallbladder cancer in the United States: a 1973-2009 population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Rubayat; Simoes, Eduardo J; Schmaltz, Chester; Jackson, Christian S; Ibdah, Jamal A

    2017-03-20

    Primary gallbladder cancer is an aggressive and uncommon cancer with poor outcomes. Our study examines epidemiology, trend, and survival of gallbladder cancer in the United States from 1973 to 2009. We utilized the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database (SEER). Frequency and rate analyses on demographics, stage, and survival were compared among non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, African American, and Asian/Pacific Islanders. A total of 18,124 cases were reported in SEER from 1973 to 2009 comprising 1.4% of all reported gastrointestinal cancers. Gallbladder cancer was more common in females than males (71 vs. 29%, respectively). The age-adjusted incidence rate was 1.4 per 100,000, significantly higher in females than males (1.7 vs. 1.0). Trend analysis showed that the incidence rate has been decreasing over the last three decades for males. However, among females, the incidence rate had decreased from 1973 to mid-90s but has remained stable since then. Trend analysis for stage at diagnosis showed that the proportion of late-stage cases has been increasing significantly since 2001 after a decreasing pattern since 1973. Survival has improved considerably over time, and survival is better in females than males and in Asian/Pacific Islanders than other racial groups. The highest survival was in patients who received both surgery and radiation. Trend analysis revealed a recent increase of the incidence of late-stage gallbladder cancer. Highest survival was associated with receiving both surgery and radiation.

  2. Burden of cancer in Malawi; common types, incidence and trends: National population-based cancer registry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Msyamboza Kelias

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cancer is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide with a majority of cases and deaths occurring in developing countries. While cancer of the lung, breast, colorectum, stomach and prostate are the most common types of cancer globally, in east and southern Africa these are less common and comprehensive data to inform policies are lacking. Methods Nationwide cancer registry was conducted between September and October 2010 in Malawi. New cancer cases registered from 2007 to 2010 were identified from hospital and clinic registers of 81 out of 84 health facilities providing cancer diagnosis, treatment or palliative care services. Demographic and cancer data were extracted from registers and case notes using a standard form. Results A total of 18,946 new cases of cancer were registered in Malawi from 2007-2010. Of these 55.9% were females, 7.2% were children aged less than 15 years, 76.5% were adults aged 15-59 years and 16.4% were elderly aged 60 years or more. Only 17.9% of the cases had histologically verified diagnosis, 33.2% were diagnosed clinically and 49.6% based on clinical and some investigations. Amongst females, cancer of the cervix was the commonest accounting for 45.4% of all cases followed by Kaposi sarcoma (21.1%, cancer of the oesophagus (8.2%, breast (4.6% and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (4.1%. In males, Kaposi sarcoma was the most frequent (50.7% then cancer of oesophagus (16.9%, non-Hodgkin lymphoma (7.8, prostate (4.0% and urinary bladder (3.7%. Age-standardised incidence rate per 100,000 population for all types of cancer in males increased from 31 in 1999-2002 to 56 in 2007-2010. In females it increased from 29 to 69. Kaposi sarcoma and cancer of the oesophagus, cervical cancer and Kaposi sarcoma were the main causes for the increased incidence in males and females respectively. It was estimated that, annually at least 8,151 new cases of cancer (all types occur in Malawi. Conclusions This study provided

  3. Soft drinks : time trends and correlates in twenty-four European countries. A cross-national study using the DAFNE (Data Food Networking) databank

    OpenAIRE

    Naska, Androniki; Bountziouka, Vasiliki; Trichopoulou, Antonia

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate time trends in the availability of soft drinks, to identify food choices associated with their consumption and to assess the relationship between socio-economic status and daily soft drink availability in a wide range of European countries. Design: Data on food and beverage availability collected through the national household budget surveys and harmonized in the DAFNE (Data Food Networking) project were used. Averages and variability of soft drink availability were est...

  4. Long-term Trend in the Total Ozone over South Asia using Satellites and Balloon Based Ozonesonde data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zareen, R.; Ghauri, B.

    Global environmental issues include ozone layer depletion, global warming, acid deposition, tropical deforestation, desertification, pollution problems in developing countries, its impacts and damages affect not only the countries that caused the problems but go beyond their national boundaries and reached a global scale. These problems are inter-related in a complicated manner. The loss of ozone high in the atmosphere as a consequences of human activities is a serious global-scale environmental problem. Total ozone measurements from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer onboard Nimbus 7 (NASA), Meteor 3 (Russian), ADEOS (Japanese satellite) and Earth Probe (NASA) from November 1978 - 2000 use to determine the quantitative spatial and a temporal resolution of ozone over the South Asia. The reprocessed (Version-7) daily total ozone observations made by these satellites over South Asia have been used to investigate total Ozone trends. Long-term trend estimates obtained from the linear multiple regression analysis show no significant Ozone trend in the Southern part of Asia. However, the measurement for mid latitude and northern region have shown significant negative trend in Ozone. Ozone profile are also measured using GPS based Radiosonde / Ozonesonde balloon sounding system. The flight were carried out at 25° N and 66° E up to 30-35 Km altitude. In this study the tropospheric ozone formation, stratospheric ozone subsidence and its variation (Seasonal) near and above the ground, temperature and dynamic behavior of the troposphere and stratosphere are also discussed.

  5. Time for evidence-based cytology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dey Pranab

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Evidence-based medicine (EBM is a fashionable and an extremely hot topic for clinicians, patients and the health service planners. Evidence-based cytology (EBC is an offshoot of EBM. The EBC is concerned with generating a reproducible, high quality and clinically relevant test result in the field of cytology. This is a rapidly evolving area with high practical importance. EBC is based entirely on research data. The various professional bodies on cytology design and recommend guidelines on the basis of evidences. Once the guideline is implemented and practiced then the experiences of the practicing cytopathologists may be used as a feed back to alter the existing guideline. The various facets of EBC are sampling and specimen adequacy, morphological identification and computer based expert system, integrated reporting, identification of the controversial areas and high quality researches for evidences. It is the duty of the individuals and institutions to practice EBC for better diagnosis and management of the patients. In this present paper, the various aspects of EBC have been discussed.

  6. Testing for the presence and source of nonstationarity in United States energy efficiency: Time trends, hysteresis or random walk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McArdle, Paul Francis

    This research tests for the presence and source of non-stationarity in U.S. aggregate energy efficiency for the 1900-1991 period. An outlier/intervention model is used to test for the presence of a unit-root in aggregate energy efficiency against the alternative hypothesis of a segmented/broken trend. A decomposed energy price model is also used to test if hysteresis in energy efficiency results from an asymmetrical response to energy price changes. The analysis revealed four distinct stages in aggregate energy efficiency during the 20th century: (1) the 1900-1920 period characterized by highly volatile decreases in energy efficiency caused by rapid industrialization and transition to a fossil-fueled economy; (2) the 1920-1949 period distinguished by a persistent increase in energy efficiency as the economy became adept at harnessing fossil energy; (3) the 1949-1972 period when energy efficiency remained stable within a narrow range; and (4) the 1973-1991 period when energy efficiency improved dramatically in response to the two oil prices shocks of the 1970s. Key modeling results include the following: (1) energy efficiency follows a unit-root process even when the effects of intervention outliers are taken into consideration, indicating that the unit-root hypothesis cannot be rejected against an alternative of a segmented/broken trend; (2) a major source of non-stationarity in energy efficiency is hysteresis induced by non-reverting changes in energy efficiency, in turn caused by dramatic increases in energy prices; and (3) although a strong negative trend appears to have occurred in aggregate energy intensity since 1920, it seems to be the result of energy price increases, rather than a general downward trend. An important economic implication of the analysis is that energy price increases appear to impact energy efficiency, while energy price decreases appear to have much less effect. This finding is consistent with much of the economic literature in this area

  7. Time Trend of the People lost follow up on Antiretroviral Therapy (ART Services in Nepal: A Epidemiological Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brijesh Sathian

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: The real state about the spread of the HIV epidemic in Nepal is not clear since the details available are on the basis of repeated integrated biological and behavioral surveillance. Objective To study the trends of People lost follow up on ART in future. Material and methods: A retrospective study was carried out on the data collected from the Health ministry records of Nepal, between 2006 and 2012. Descriptive statistics and statistical modelling were used for the analysis and forecasting of data. Results: Including the constant term from the equation, the quadratic model was the best fit, for the forecasting of People lost follow up on ART. Using quadratic equation, it is estimated that 4331 reported number of People lost follow up on ART will be there in Nepal by the year 2020. Conclusion: The People lost follow up on ART in Nepal are having an increasing trend. Estimates of the total number of People lost follow up on ART attributable to the major routes of infection make an important contribution to public health policy. They can be used for the planning of healthcare services and for contributing to estimates of the future numbers with People lost follow up on ART used for planning health promotion programmes.

  8. Community-based surveillance to monitor trends in unaccompanied and separated children in eastern DRC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubenstein, Beth L; Spencer, Craig; Mansourian, Hani; Noble, Eva; Munganga, Gustave B; Stark, Lindsay

    2015-12-01

    Children who are separated from their families and usual caregivers in emergencies face a multitude of risks. The humanitarian community lacks methods to systematically capture changes in the frequency and nature of such separations over time. A mobile phone-based community surveillance system was piloted in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The goal was to identify new cases of unaccompanied and separated children on a weekly basis. Over an 11-week period, community focal points reported 62 cases of separation across 10 communities. The majority of children had been under the care of their parents prior to separation. More than half of the children were unaccompanied, meaning that they were living without an adult relative or customary caregiver. The pilot results suggest that implementing a mobile phone-based surveillance system in a humanitarian setting may be feasible and cost-effective and fills a critical gap in the measurement of separated and unaccompanied children in emergencies. A longer pilot to better understand how the system performs over time is recommended.

  9. Bias of genetic trend of genomic predictions based on both real dairy cattle and simulated data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Peipei; Lund, Mogens Sandø; Nielsen, Ulrik Sander;

    population. In simulated data, there was no bias when the test animals were unselected cows. When the G matrix was derived from genotypes of causal genes, the bias was reduced. The results suggest that the main reasons for causing the bias of the prediction trends are the selection of bulls and bull dams......This study investigated the phenomenon of bias in the trend of genomic predictions and attempted to find the reason and solution for this bias. The data used in this study include Danish Jersey data and simulation data. In Jersey data, the bias was reduced when cows were included in the reference...... as well as the inaccurate relationship matrix. The possible strategies to eliminate the bias could be to use cow reference and improve genomic relationship matrix...

  10. Antarctic station-based seasonal pressure reconstructions since 1905: 2. Variability and trends during the twentieth century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogt, Ryan L.; Jones, Julie M.; Goergens, Chad A.; Jones, Megan E.; Witte, Grant A.; Lee, Ming Yueng

    2016-03-01

    The Antarctic seasonal station-based pressure reconstructions evaluated in our companion paper are evaluated here to provide additional knowledge on Antarctic pressure variability during the twentieth century. In the period from 1905 to 1956, we find that the Hadley Centre gridded sea level pressure data set compared the best with our reconstructions, perhaps due to similar methods to estimate pressure without direct observations. The primary focus on the twentieth century Antarctic pressure variability was in summer and winter, as these were the seasons with the highest reconstruction skill. In summer, there is considerable interannual variability that was spatially uniform across all of Antarctica. Notable high pressure anomalies were found in the summers of 1911/1912 and 1925/1926; both summers correspond to negative phases of the Southern Annular Mode as well as El Niño events in the tropical Pacific. In addition, negative summer pressure trends during the last ~40 years across all of Antarctica are unique in the context of 30 year trends throughout the entire twentieth century, suggesting a strong component of anthropogenic forcing on the recent summer trends. In contrast, mean winter pressure is less variable from year to year during the early twentieth century, and there is less similarity between the pressure variations along the Antarctic Peninsula compared to the rest of the continent. No significant pressure trends were found consistently across all Antarctica (although some significant regional trends can be identified), and low-frequency, multidecadal-scale variability appears to dominate the historical pressure variations in this season.

  11. Trends in publication on evidence-based antioxidative herbal medicines in management of diabetic nephropathy

    OpenAIRE

    Tabatabaei-Malazy, Ozra; Atlasi, Rasha; Larijani, Bagher; Abdollahi, Mohammad

    2016-01-01

    Background Recently, popularity and use of herbal medicine in treatment of diabetes have been increased. Since, oxidative stress is known as the main underlying pathophysiology of diabetes and its complications, the purpose of this bibliometric study is to assess the global scientific production analysis and developing its trend in field of antioxidative hypoglycemic herbal medicines and diabetic nephropathy focusing on the scientific publication numbers, citations, geographical distribution ...

  12. A two warehouse deterministic inventory model for deteriorating items with a linear trend in time dependent demand over finite time horizon by Elitist Real-Coded Genetic Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.K. Bhunia

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with a deterministic inventory model developed for deteriorating items having two separate storage facilities (owned and rented warehouses due to limited capacity of the existing storage (owned warehouse with linear time dependent demand (increasing over a fixed finite time horizon. The model is formulated with infinite replenishment and the successive replenishment cycle lengths are in arithmetic progression. Partially backlogged shortages are allowed. The stocks of rented warehouse (RW are transported to the owned warehouse (OW in continuous release pattern. For this purpose, the model is formulated as a constrained non-linear mixed integer programming problem. For solving the problem, an advanced genetic algorithm (GA has been developed. This advanced GA is based on ranking selection, elitism, whole arithmetic crossover and non-uniform mutation dependent on the age of the population. Our objective is to determine the optimal replenishment number, lot-size of two-warehouses (OW and RW by maximizing the profit function. The model is illustrated with four numerical examples and sensitivity analyses of the optimal solution are performed with respect to different parameters.

  13. Trends in suicide risk associated with hospitalized psychiatric illness: a case-control study based on danish longitudinal registers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qin, Ping; Nordentoft, Merete; Hansen Høyer, Eyd;

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: In light of the consistent reduction in suicide rate during the past 20 years in Denmark, this study aims to investigate trends in suicide risk associated with hospitalized psychiatric illness and to explore differences in the changes with regard to clinical phases of illness, sex, age...... longitudinal registers. Data were analyzed using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: This study shows that the reduction in suicide rate is generally faster among individuals with a history of psychiatric admission than among individuals without such a history. However, this substantial reduction...... at the time of suicide or the index date, the reduction in suicide rate is relatively slower. Such trends hold for all diagnostic groups. Further analyses stratified by age indicate that the faster reduction in suicide rate associated with history of hospitalized psychiatric illness is more pronounced among...

  14. Time trends in pediatric hospitalizations for hepatitis A in Greece (1999-2013): Assessment of the impact of universal infant immunization in 2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papaevangelou, V; Alexopoulou, Z; Hadjichristodoulou, C; Kourlamba, G; Katsioulis, A; Theodoridou, K; Spoulou, V; Theodoridou, M

    2016-07-01

    Hepatitis A vaccine was introduced in the Greek National Immunization Program in 2008. To estimate possible impact of the universal vaccination implementation, time trends of hospitalizations for hepatitis A at the Infectious Diseases Unit of a Tertiary Pediatric Hospital in Athens during 1999-2013 were analyzed. Hepatitis A hospitalizations were recorded from the discharge database and were expressed as frequencies and rate of annual departmental hospitalizations. Time series analysis (ARIMA) was used to explore trends and the impact of the vaccination. Moreover, changes in patient age, population group distribution and the duration of hospitalization were also examined. Hepatitis A hospitalizations rate significantly decreased between pre-vaccination (1999-2008) and post-vaccination (2009-2013) era from 50.5 to 20.8/1000 hospitalizations (p = 0.005). A 3-year periodicity and a trend of reduction on hepatitis A hospitalizations rates across years were noted. Roma children had significant higher rates of hepatitis A hospitalization, followed by immigrant children. Importantly, possibly due to preceding vaccine availability with considerable uptake in private market and unvaccinated group/pockets of children (Roma), overall vaccination effect was less apparent when compared to data from other countries that implemented universal vaccination. No significant change in patient age, population group distribution, or duration of hospitalization was observed. High risk groups such as Roma children should be targeted for vaccination to reduce future outbreaks.

  15. Cross-national time trends in bullying behaviour 1994-2006: findings from Europe and North America

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molcho, Michal; Craig, Wendy; Due, Pernille

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To identify trends over 12 years in the prevalence of bullying and associated victimization among adolescents in North American and European countries. METHODS: Cross-sectional self-report surveys were obtained from nationally representative samples of 11-15 year old school children...... in 21 countries in 1993/94 and in 27 countries in each of 1997/98, 2001/02 and 2005/06. Measures included involvement in bullying as either a perpetrator and/or victim. RESULTS: Consistent decreases in the prevalence of bullying were reported between 1993/94 to 2005/06 in most countries. Geographic...... patterns show consistent decreases in bullying in Western European countries and in most Eastern European countries. An increase or no change in prevalence was evident in almost all English speaking countries participating in the study (England, Scotland, Wales, Ireland and Canada, but not in the USA...

  16. Estimating decades-long trends in petroleum field energy return on investment (EROI) with an engineering-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathi, Vinay S; Brandt, Adam R

    2017-01-01

    This paper estimates changes in the energy return on investment (EROI) for five large petroleum fields over time using the Oil Production Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimator (OPGEE). The modeled fields include Cantarell (Mexico), Forties (U.K.), Midway-Sunset (U.S.), Prudhoe Bay (U.S.), and Wilmington (U.S.). Data on field properties and production/processing parameters were obtained from a combination of government and technical literature sources. Key areas of uncertainty include details of the oil and gas surface processing schemes. We aim to explore how long-term trends in depletion at major petroleum fields change the effective energetic productivity of petroleum extraction. Four EROI ratios are estimated for each field as follows: The net energy ratio (NER) and external energy ratio (EER) are calculated, each using two measures of energy outputs, (1) oil-only and (2) all energy outputs. In all cases, engineering estimates of inputs are used rather than expenditure-based estimates (including off-site indirect energy use and embodied energy). All fields display significant declines in NER over the modeling period driven by a combination of (1) reduced petroleum production and (2) increased energy expenditures on recovery methods such as the injection of water, steam, or gas. The fields studied had NER reductions ranging from 46% to 88% over the modeling periods (accounting for all energy outputs). The reasons for declines in EROI differ by field. Midway-Sunset experienced a 5-fold increase in steam injected per barrel of oil produced. In contrast, Prudhoe Bay has experienced nearly a 30-fold increase in amount of gas processed and reinjected per unit of oil produced. In contrast, EER estimates are subject to greater variability and uncertainty due to the relatively small magnitude of external energy investments in most cases.

  17. A Covert Channel Based on Web Read-time Modulation

    OpenAIRE

    Davis, Joshua

    2014-01-01

    A network covert channel is created that operates by modulating the time between web resource accesses, with an 'average web user' read-time used as a reference. While the covert channel may be classified as timing based, it does not operate by changing deterministic protocol attributes such as inter-packet delay, as do most timing based network covert channels. Instead, our channel communicates by modulating transaction level read-time, which in the web browsing case has significant non-dete...

  18. Prevalence and Trends of Staphylococcus aureus Bacteraemia in Hospitalized Patients in South Africa, 2010 to 2012: Laboratory-Based Surveillance Mapping of Antimicrobial Resistance and Molecular Epidemiology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Perovic

    Full Text Available We aimed to obtain an in-depth understanding on recent antimicrobial resistance trends and molecular epidemiology trends of S. aureus bacteraemia (SAB.Thirteen academic centres in South Africa were included from June 2010 until July 2012. S. aureus susceptibility testing was performed on the MicroScan Walkaway. Real-time PCR using the LightCycler 480 II was done for mecA and nuc. SCCmec and spa-typing were finalized with conventional PCR. We selected one isolate per common spa type per province for multilocus sequence typing (MLST.S. aureus from 2709 patients were included, and 1231 (46% were resistant to methicillin, with a significant decline over the three-year period (p-value = 0.003. Geographical distribution of MRSA was significantly higher in Gauteng compared to the other provinces (P<0.001. Children <5 years were significantly associated with MRSA with higher rates compared to all other age groups (P = 0.01. The most prevalent SCCmec type was SCCmec type III (531 [41%] followed by type IV (402 [31%]. Spa-typing discovered 47 different spa-types. The five (87% most common spa-types were t037, t1257, t045, t064 and t012. Based on MLST, the commonest was ST612 clonal complex (CC8 (n = 7 followed by ST5 (CC5 (n = 4, ST36 (CC30 (n = 4 and ST239 (CC8 (n = 3.MRSA rate is high in South Africa. Majority of the isolates were classified as SCCmec type III (41% and type IV (31%, which are typically associated with hospital and community- acquired infections, respectively. Overall, this study reveals the presence of a variety of hospital-acquired MRSA clones in South Africa dominance of few clones, spa 037 and 1257. Monitoring trends in resistance and molecular typing is recommended to detect changing epidemiological trends in AMR patterns of SAB.

  19. Prevalence and Trends of Staphylococcus aureus Bacteraemia in Hospitalized Patients in South Africa, 2010 to 2012: Laboratory-Based Surveillance Mapping of Antimicrobial Resistance and Molecular Epidemiology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perovic, Olga; Iyaloo, Samantha; Kularatne, Ranmini; Lowman, Warren; Bosman, Noma; Wadula, Jeannette; Seetharam, Sharona; Duse, Adriano; Mbelle, Nontombi; Bamford, Colleen; Dawood, Halima; Mahabeer, Yesholata; Bhola, Prathna; Abrahams, Shareef; Singh-Moodley, Ashika

    2015-01-01

    Introduction We aimed to obtain an in-depth understanding on recent antimicrobial resistance trends and molecular epidemiology trends of S. aureus bacteraemia (SAB). Methods Thirteen academic centres in South Africa were included from June 2010 until July 2012. S. aureus susceptibility testing was performed on the MicroScan Walkaway. Real-time PCR using the LightCycler 480 II was done for mecA and nuc. SCCmec and spa-typing were finalized with conventional PCR. We selected one isolate per common spa type per province for multilocus sequence typing (MLST). Results S. aureus from 2709 patients were included, and 1231 (46%) were resistant to methicillin, with a significant decline over the three-year period (p-value = 0.003). Geographical distribution of MRSA was significantly higher in Gauteng compared to the other provinces (P<0.001). Children <5 years were significantly associated with MRSA with higher rates compared to all other age groups (P = 0.01). The most prevalent SCCmec type was SCCmec type III (531 [41%]) followed by type IV (402 [31%]). Spa-typing discovered 47 different spa-types. The five (87%) most common spa-types were t037, t1257, t045, t064 and t012. Based on MLST, the commonest was ST612 clonal complex (CC8) (n = 7) followed by ST5 (CC5) (n = 4), ST36 (CC30) (n = 4) and ST239 (CC8) (n = 3). Conclusions MRSA rate is high in South Africa. Majority of the isolates were classified as SCCmec type III (41%) and type IV (31%), which are typically associated with hospital and community- acquired infections, respectively. Overall, this study reveals the presence of a variety of hospital-acquired MRSA clones in South Africa dominance of few clones, spa 037 and 1257. Monitoring trends in resistance and molecular typing is recommended to detect changing epidemiological trends in AMR patterns of SAB. PMID:26719975

  20. Verifying real-time systems against scenario-based requirements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Li, Shuhao; Nielsen, Brian;

    2009-01-01

    subset of the LSC language. By equivalently translating an LSC chart into an observer TA and then non-intrusively composing this observer with the original system model, the problem of verifying a real-time system against a scenario-based requirement reduces to a classical real-time model checking......We propose an approach to automatic verification of real-time systems against scenario-based requirements. A real-time system is modeled as a network of Timed Automata (TA), and a scenario-based requirement is specified as a Live Sequence Chart (LSC). We define a trace-based semantics for a kernel...

  1. Trends in Nanomaterial-Based Non-Invasive Diabetes Sensing Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prashanth Makaram

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Blood glucose monitoring is considered the gold standard for diabetes diagnostics and self-monitoring. However, the underlying process is invasive and highly uncomfortable for patients. Furthermore, the process must be completed several times a day to successfully manage the disease, which greatly contributes to the massive need for non-invasive monitoring options. Human serums, such as saliva, sweat, breath, urine and tears, contain traces of glucose and are easily accessible. Therefore, they allow minimal to non-invasive glucose monitoring, making them attractive alternatives to blood measurements. Numerous developments regarding noninvasive glucose detection techniques have taken place over the years, but recently, they have gained recognition as viable alternatives, due to the advent of nanotechnology-based sensors. Such sensors are optimal for testing the amount of glucose in serums other than blood thanks to their enhanced sensitivity and selectivity ranges, in addition to their size and compatibility with electronic circuitry. These nanotechnology approaches are rapidly evolving, and new techniques are constantly emerging. Hence, this manuscript aims to review current and future nanomaterial-based technologies utilizing saliva, sweat, breath and tears as a diagnostic medium for diabetes monitoring.

  2. Trends in Nanomaterial-Based Non-Invasive Diabetes Sensing Technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makaram, Prashanth; Owens, Dawn; Aceros, Juan

    2014-04-21

    Blood glucose monitoring is considered the gold standard for diabetes diagnostics and self-monitoring. However, the underlying process is invasive and highly uncomfortable for patients. Furthermore, the process must be completed several times a day to successfully manage the disease, which greatly contributes to the massive need for non-invasive monitoring options. Human serums, such as saliva, sweat, breath, urine and tears, contain traces of glucose and are easily accessible. Therefore, they allow minimal to non-invasive glucose monitoring, making them attractive alternatives to blood measurements. Numerous developments regarding noninvasive glucose detection techniques have taken place over the years, but recently, they have gained recognition as viable alternatives, due to the advent of nanotechnology-based sensors. Such sensors are optimal for testing the amount of glucose in serums other than blood thanks to their enhanced sensitivity and selectivity ranges, in addition to their size and compatibility with electronic circuitry. These nanotechnology approaches are rapidly evolving, and new techniques are constantly emerging. Hence, this manuscript aims to review current and future nanomaterial-based technologies utilizing saliva, sweat, breath and tears as a diagnostic medium for diabetes monitoring.

  3. Timed-Release Hierarchical Identity-Based Encryption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toru Oshikiri

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We propose a notion of hierarchical identity-based encryption (HIBE scheme with timed-release encryption (TRE mechanism, timed-release hierarchical identity-based encryption (TRHIBE, and define its security models. We also show a generic construction of TRHIBE from HIBE and one-time signature, and discuss the security of the constructed scheme.

  4. Mapping long-term changes in savannah crop productivity in Senegal through trend analysis of time-series of remote sensing data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tøttrup, Christian; Rasmussen, Michael Schultz

    2004-01-01

    Remote sensing, NDVI, trend analysis, environmental change, rainfall, land cover change, Senegal......Remote sensing, NDVI, trend analysis, environmental change, rainfall, land cover change, Senegal...

  5. Psychotherapeutic Applications of Mobile Phone-based Technologies: A Systematic Review of Current Research and Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menon, Vikas; Rajan, Tess Maria; Sarkar, Siddharth

    2017-01-01

    There is a growing interest in using mobile phone technology to offer real-time psychological interventions and support. However, questions remain on the clinical effectiveness and feasibility of such approaches in psychiatric populations. Our aim was to systematically review the published literature on mobile phone apps and other mobile phone-based technology for psychotherapy in mental health disorders. To achieve this, electronic searches of PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar were carried out in January 2016. Generated abstracts were systematically screened for eligibility to be included in the review. Studies employing psychotherapy in any form, being delivered through mobile-based technology and reporting core mental health outcomes in mental illness were included in the study. We also included trials in progress with published protocols reporting at least some outcome measures of such interventions. From a total of 1563 search results, 24 eligible articles were identified and reviewed. These included trials in anxiety disorders (8), substance use disorders (5), depression (4), bipolar disorders (3), schizophrenia and psychotic disorders (3), and attempted suicide (1). Of these, eight studies involved the use of smartphone apps and others involved personalized text messages, automated programs, or delivered empirically supported treatments. Trial lengths varied from 6 weeks to 1 year. Good overall retention rates indicated that the treatments were feasible and largely acceptable. Benefits were reported on core outcomes in mental health illness indicating efficacy of such approaches though sample sizes were small. To conclude, mobile phone-based psychotherapies are a feasible and acceptable treatment option for patients with mental disorders. However, there remains a paucity of data on their effectiveness in real-world settings, especially from low- and middle-income countries.

  6. Psychotherapeutic Applications of Mobile Phone-based Technologies: A Systematic Review of Current Research and Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menon, Vikas; Rajan, Tess Maria; Sarkar, Siddharth

    2017-01-01

    There is a growing interest in using mobile phone technology to offer real-time psychological interventions and support. However, questions remain on the clinical effectiveness and feasibility of such approaches in psychiatric populations. Our aim was to systematically review the published literature on mobile phone apps and other mobile phone-based technology for psychotherapy in mental health disorders. To achieve this, electronic searches of PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar were carried out in January 2016. Generated abstracts were systematically screened for eligibility to be included in the review. Studies employing psychotherapy in any form, being delivered through mobile-based technology and reporting core mental health outcomes in mental illness were included in the study. We also included trials in progress with published protocols reporting at least some outcome measures of such interventions. From a total of 1563 search results, 24 eligible articles were identified and reviewed. These included trials in anxiety disorders (8), substance use disorders (5), depression (4), bipolar disorders (3), schizophrenia and psychotic disorders (3), and attempted suicide (1). Of these, eight studies involved the use of smartphone apps and others involved personalized text messages, automated programs, or delivered empirically supported treatments. Trial lengths varied from 6 weeks to 1 year. Good overall retention rates indicated that the treatments were feasible and largely acceptable. Benefits were reported on core outcomes in mental health illness indicating efficacy of such approaches though sample sizes were small. To conclude, mobile phone-based psychotherapies are a feasible and acceptable treatment option for patients with mental disorders. However, there remains a paucity of data on their effectiveness in real-world settings, especially from low- and middle-income countries.

  7. Recovery of delay time from time series based on the nearest neighbor method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prokhorov, M. D.; Ponomarenko, V. I.; Khorev, V. S.

    2013-12-01

    We propose a method for the recovery of delay time from time series of time-delay systems. The method is based on the nearest neighbor analysis. The method allows one to reconstruct delays in various classes of time-delay systems including systems of high order, systems with several coexisting delays, and nonscalar time-delay systems. It can be applied to time series heavily corrupted by additive and dynamical noise.

  8. Recovery of delay time from time series based on the nearest neighbor method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prokhorov, M.D., E-mail: mdprokhorov@yandex.ru [Saratov Branch of Kotel' nikov Institute of Radio Engineering and Electronics of Russian Academy of Sciences, Zelyonaya Street, 38, Saratov 410019 (Russian Federation); Ponomarenko, V.I. [Saratov Branch of Kotel' nikov Institute of Radio Engineering and Electronics of Russian Academy of Sciences, Zelyonaya Street, 38, Saratov 410019 (Russian Federation); Department of Nano- and Biomedical Technologies, Saratov State University, Astrakhanskaya Street, 83, Saratov 410012 (Russian Federation); Khorev, V.S. [Department of Nano- and Biomedical Technologies, Saratov State University, Astrakhanskaya Street, 83, Saratov 410012 (Russian Federation)

    2013-12-09

    We propose a method for the recovery of delay time from time series of time-delay systems. The method is based on the nearest neighbor analysis. The method allows one to reconstruct delays in various classes of time-delay systems including systems of high order, systems with several coexisting delays, and nonscalar time-delay systems. It can be applied to time series heavily corrupted by additive and dynamical noise.

  9. Incidence Patterns and Trends of non-Central Nervous System Solid Tumours in Children and Adolescents. A Collaborative Study of the Spanish Population Based Cancer Registries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larrañaga, Nerea; Sanchez, Mª José; Ardanaz, Eva; Felipe, Saray; Marcos-Gragera, Rafael; Ramos, María; Carulla, Marià; Chirlaque, Mª Dolores; Argüelles, Marcial V.; Martos, Carmen; Mateo, Antonio; Peris-Bonet, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To describe incidence patterns and trends in children (0-14 years) and adolescents (15-19 age-range) with solid tumours, except those of central nervous system (CNS), in Spain. Methods: Cases were drawn from eleven Spanish population-based cancer registries. Incidence was estimated for the period 1983-2007 and trends were evaluated using Joinpoint regression analysis. Results: The studied tumour groups accounted for 36% of total childhood cancers and 47.6% of those diagnosed in adolescence with annual rates per million of 53.5 and 89.3 respectively. In children 0 to 14 years of age, Neuroblastoma (NB) was the commonest (7.8%) followed by Soft-tissue sarcomas (STS) (6.3%), bone tumours (BT) (6.2%) and renal tumours (RT) (4.5%). NB was the most frequently diagnosed tumour before the 5th birthday, while STS and BT were the commonest at 5-9 years of age, and BT and Carcinoma and other epithelial tumours (COET) at 10-14. COET presented the highest incidence in adolescents, followed by germ-cell tumours (GCT), BT and STS. These four diagnostic groups accounted for 94% of total non-CNS solid tumours, in adolescents. Overall incidence rates increased significantly in children up to 1996 with an annual percentage change (APC) of 2.6% (95%CI: 1.7; 3.6). NB and COET showed significant time trend (APCs: 1.4% and 3.8% respectively) while other tumour groups such as RT, STS, BT or GCT had no significant changes over time. A significant increase was present in NB under the age of 5 and in BT and STS in children aged 10-14 years. In adolescents there were significant increases for all tumours combined (APC=2.7; 95%CI: 1.8-3.6) and for STS, GCT and COET (APCs: 3.2%, 4.4% and 3.5% respectively), while other tumour groups such as hepatic tumours, BT or thyroid carcinomas showed a decreasing trend or no increase. Conclusions: Overall, the incidence of the studied cancers in children increased along the period 1983-1996 with no posterior significant rise, while the incidence

  10. Trends and structural shifts in health tourism: evidence from seasonal time-series data on health-related travel spending by Canada during 1970-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loh, Chung-Ping A

    2015-05-01

    There has been a growing interest in better understanding the trends and determinants of health tourism activities. While much of the expanding literature on health tourism offers theoretical or qualitative discussion, empirical evidences has been lacking. This study employs Canada's outbound health tourism activities as an example to examine the trends in health tourism and its association with changing domestic health care market characteristics. A time-series model that accounts for potential structural changes in the trend is employed to analyze the quarterly health-related travel spending series reported in the Balance of Payments Statistics (BOPS) during 1970-2010 (n = 156). We identified a structural shift point which marks the start of an accelerated growth of health tourism and a flattened seasonality in such activities. We found that the health tourism activities of Canadian consumers increase when the private investment in medical facilities declines or when the private MPI increases during the years following the structural-change. We discussed the possible linkage of the structural shift to the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), which went into effect in January, 1995.

  11. Time Trends and Predictors of Abnormal Postoperative Body Temperature in Infants Transported to the Intensive Care Unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hedwig Schroeck

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Despite increasing adoption of active warming methods over the recent years, little is known about the effectiveness of these interventions on the occurrence of abnormal postoperative temperatures in sick infants. Methods. Preoperative and postoperative temperature readings, patient characteristics, and procedural factors of critically ill infants at a single institution were retrieved retrospectively from June 2006 until May 2014. The primary endpoints were the incidence and trend of postoperative hypothermia and hyperthermia on arrival at the intensive care units. Univariate and adjusted analyses were performed to identify factors independently associated with abnormal postoperative temperatures. Results. 2,350 cases were included. 82% were normothermic postoperatively, while hypothermia and hyperthermia each occurred in 9% of cases. During the study period, hypothermia decreased from 24% to 2% (p<0.0001 while hyperthermia remained unchanged (13% in 2006, 8% in 2014, p=0.357. Factors independently associated with hypothermia were higher ASA status (p=0.02, lack of intraoperative convective warming (p<0.001 and procedure date before 2010 (p<0.001. Independent associations for postoperative hyperthermia included lower body weight (p=0.01 and procedure date before 2010 (p<0.001. Conclusions. We report an increase in postoperative normothermia rates in critically ill infants from 2006 until 2014. Careful monitoring to avoid overcorrection and hyperthermia is recommended.

  12. Time trends of esophageal cancer mortality in Linzhou city during the period 1988-2010 and a Bayesian approach projection for 2020.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shu-Zheng; Zhang, Fang; Quan, Pei-Liang; Lu, Jian-Bang; Liu, Zhi-Cai; Sun, Xi-Bin

    2012-01-01

    In recent decades, decreasing trends in esophageal cancer mortality have been observed across China. We here describe esophageal cancer mortality trends in Linzhou city, a high-incidence region of esophageal cancer in China, during 1988-2010 and make a esophageal cancer mortality projection in the period 2011-2020 using a Bayesian approach. Age standardized mortality rates were estimated by direct standardization to the World population structure in 1985. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was carried out in order to investigate the effect of the age, period and birth cohort on esophageal cancer mortality in Linzhou during 1988-2010 and to estimate future trends for the period 2011-2020. Age-adjusted rates for men and women decreased from 1988 to 2005 and changed little thereafter. Risk increased from 30 years of age until the very elderly. Period effects showed little variation in risk throughout 1988-2010. In contrast, a cohort effect showed risk decreased greatly in later cohorts. Forecasting, based on BAPC modeling, resulted in a increasing burden of mortality and a decreasing age standardized mortality rate of esophageal cancer in Linzhou city. The decrease of esophageal cancer mortality risk since the 1930 cohort could be attributable to the improvements of social- economic environment and lifestyle. The standardized mortality rates of esophageal cancer should decrease continually. The effect of aging on the population could explain the increase in esophageal mortality projected for 2020.

  13. Mapping Clearances in Tropical Dry Forests Using Breakpoints, Trend, and Seasonal Components from MODIS Time Series: Does Forest Type Matter?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grogan, Kenneth; Pflugmacher, Dirk; Hostert, Patrick; Verbesselt, Jan; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2016-01-01

    Tropical environments present a unique challenge for optical time series analysis, primarily owing to fragmented data availability, persistent cloud cover and atmospheric aerosols. Additionally, little is known of whether the performance of time series change detection is affected by diverse forest

  14. X-Ray Pulsar Based Navigation and Time Determination Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — DARPA recently initiated the XNAV program to undertake development of GPS independent, precision navigation and time determination based on observations of certain...

  15. The trend of body donation for education based on Korean social and religious culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong-Tae; Jang, Yoonsun; Park, Min Sun; Pae, Calvin; Park, Jinyi; Hu, Kyung-Seok; Park, Jin-Seo; Han, Seung-Ho; Koh, Ki-Seok; Kim, Hee-Jin

    2011-01-01

    Until a century ago, Korean medicine was based mainly on Oriental philosophies and ideas. From a religious perspective, Chinese Confucianism was prevalent in Korea at that time. Since Confucianists believe that it is against one's filial duty to harm his or her body, given to them by their parents, most Koreans did not donate their bodies or organs for education in the past. However, by the end of the 20th century, a unique fusion of Western and Oriental medicines were produced on the Korean Peninsula, revolutionizing traditional perspectives on the human body, mortality, and the relationship of medical science to society. Koreans began to think about others' lives as well as their own by realizing the importance of donating one's organs and bodies for scientific purposes. Since then, the number of people donating their bodies to Korean medical and dental schools for the purpose of improving academic learning has increased dramatically. In response, Korean medical schools have begun to hold various types of funeral ceremonies to honor body donors. We have compared such ceremonies performed in Korea with those performed in the United States of America and Taiwan. These ceremonies are viewed as a suitable way to pay proper respect to the dead and to promote knowledge about body donation programs in Korea. Overall, the transition of religions and social ethics in Korea has greatly facilitated body bequeathal programs, benefiting both medical education and the Korean public health administration.

  16. Priority Based Dynamic Round Robin (PBDRR) Algorithm with Intelligent Time Slice for Soft Real Time Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Prof. Rakesh Mohanty; Prof H.S Behera; Khusbu Patwari; Monisha Dash; M. Lakshmi Prasanna

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a new variant of Round Robin (RR) algorithm is proposed which is suitable for soft real time systems. RR algorithm performs optimally in timeshared systems, but it is not suitable for soft real time systems. Because it gives more number of context switches, larger waiting time and larger response time. We have proposed a novel algorithm, known as Priority Based Dynamic Round Robin Algorithm(PBDRR), which calculates intelligent time slice for individual processes and changes aft...

  17. European drought climatologies and trends based on a multi-indicator approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spinoni, Jonathan; Naumann, Gustavo; Vogt, Jürgen; Barbosa, Paulo

    2015-04-01

    Drought is one of the most important weather-induced phenomena which may have severe impacts on different areas such as agriculture, economy, energy production, and society. From a meteorological point of view, drought can be induced and/or reinforced by lack of precipitation, hot temperatures and enhanced evapotranspiration. Starting from a multi-indicator approach, we present European-wide meteorological drought climatologies and trends for the period 1950-2012. As input data, we used precipitation and temperature data from the E-OBS (spatial resolution: 0.25° × 0.25°) gridded dataset of the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D). Precipitation, temperature, and the derived potential evapotranspiration (PET) have been used to compute three drought indicators: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). SPI, SPEI, and RDI, calculated for 12-month accumulation period, have been rationally merged into a combined indicator and this quantity has been used to obtain drought frequency, duration, and severity for the entire Europe. We identified the following drought hotspots: Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, and Russia in 1951-1970, no particular hotspot in 1971-1990, the Mediterranean region and the Baltic Republics in 1991-2010. A linear trend analysis shows that drought variables increased in the period 1950-2012 in South-Western Europe, in particular in the Mediterranean and Carpathian regions, with precipitation decrease and PET increase as drivers. Drought variables show a decrease in Scandinavia, Belarus, Ukraine and Russia: precipitation increase is the main driver. In Central Europe and the Balkans, drought variables show a moderate increase, for the significant PET increase outbalances a not significant precipitation increase.

  18. Detecting cognizable trends of gene expression in a time series RNA-sequencing experiment: a bootstrap approach

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    SHATAKSHEE CHATTERJEE; PARTHA P. MAJUMDER; PRIYANKA PANDEY

    2016-09-01

    Study of temporal trajectory of gene expression is important. RNA sequencing is popular in genome-scale studies of transcription. Because of high expenses involved, many time-course RNA sequencing studies are challenged by inadequacy of sample sizes. This poses difficulties in conducting formal statistical tests of significance of null hypotheses. We propose a bootstrap algorithm to identify ‘cognizable’ ‘time-trends’ of gene expression. Properties of the proposed algorithm are derived using a simulation study. The proposed algorithm captured known ‘time-trends’ in the simulated data with a high probability of success, even when sample sizes were small (n<10). The proposed statistical method is efficient and robust to capture ‘cognizable’ ‘time-trends’ in RNA sequencing data.

  19. Trends in Irritable Bowel Syndrome Incidence among Taiwanese Adults during 2003–2013: A Population-Based Study of Sex and Age Differences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Chieh-Hsin; Chang, Chun-Chao; Su, Chien-Tien; Tsai, Pei-Shan

    2016-01-01

    Background No population-based irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) incidence data among Taiwanese adults are available. Whether IBS is associated with risk of organic colonic diseases remains unanswered. We investigated 1) the sex- and age-stratified trends in the annual incidence of IBS, and 2) the risk of selected organic diseases in patients with IBS compared with those without IBS among Taiwanese adults during 2003–2013. Methods Medical claims data for 1 million randomly selected beneficiaries were obtained and analyzed. Patients with IBS were considered eligible for enrollment if they aged between 20 and 100 and had at least two medical encounters with IBS codes within 1 year. To test whether there was a linear secular trend in IBS incidence over time, multivariate Poisson regression with generalized estimating equation model was conducted. The risk of selected organic diseases associated with IBS was examined using multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression. Results From 2003 to 2013, the incidence of IBS significantly decreased over time [adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.97, pcolonic organic diseases. PMID:27893818

  20. Magnitude, frequency, and trends of floods at gaged and ungaged sites in Washington, based on data through water year 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastin, Mark C.; Konrad, Christopher P.; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Tecca, Alison E.

    2016-09-20

    An investigation into the magnitude and frequency of floods in Washington State computed the annual exceedance probability (AEP) statistics for 648 U.S. Geological Survey unregulated streamgages in and near the borders of Washington using the recorded annual peak flows through water year 2014. This is an updated report from a previous report published in 1998 that used annual peak flows through the water year 1996. New in this report, a regional skew coefficient was developed for the Pacific Northwest region that includes areas in Oregon, Washington, Idaho and western Montana within the Columbia River drainage basin south of the United States-Canada border, the coastal areas of Oregon and western Washington, and watersheds draining into Puget Sound, Washington. The skew coefficient is an important term in the Log Pearson Type III equation used to define the distribution of the log-transformed annual peaks. The Expected Moments Algorithm was used to fit historical and censored peak-flow data to the log Pearson Type III distribution. A Multiple Grubb-Beck test was employed to censor low outliers of annual peak flows to improve on the frequency distribution. This investigation also includes a section on observed trends in annual peak flows that showed significant trends (p-value equations to estimate AEP statistics at ungaged basins. Washington was divided into four regions to improve the accuracy of the regression equations; a set of equations for eight selected AEPs and for each region were constructed. Selected AEP statistics included the annual peak flows that equaled or exceeded 50, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5 and 0.2 percent of the time equivalent to peak flows for peaks with a 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. Annual precipitation and drainage area were the significant basin characteristics in the regression equations for all four regression regions in Washington and forest cover was significant for the two regression

  1. [Monitoring trends in fixed partial denture design based on national surveys].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fejérdy, Pál; Tollas, Ors Lehel; Fejérdy, László; Borbély, Judit; Hermann, Peter

    2007-12-01

    To restore partially edentulous arches reasonable number of fixed partial dentures (FPD) are used in Hungary. This paper describes statistic parameters of these restorations based on analysis of a large sample size. Dentists of the Department of Prosthodontics performed oral health surveys according to WHO criteria, first survey in 1985-1989 and second in 2003-2004. The oral surveys were carried out at the lung cancer screening stations among those individuals originally referred to undergo x-ray lung screening examination. In the "first" survey data collected on 6224 FPD; in the "second" survey data collected on 3676 fixed restorations were analyzed. Besides time parameters, number of pontic teeth, abutment teeth to pontic teeth ratio (abutment saturation), position of pontic teeth in the arch, position of abutment teeth in the arch, main features of "tooth location" adjacent to restoration (remnant tooth, crown, artificial tooth, missing tooth), framework- and veneering materials were investigated. For interpreting data SPSS 10.0.5 for Windows was applied. Restorations' mean survival time was 9.34 +/- 8.47 years. Average number of FPD unit was: 6.34 for the maxillary and 4.62 for the mandibular jaw. Average number of abutment teeth was 3.58 in the upper and 2.82 in the lower jaw. Most frequent abutment teeth of both the maxillary and mandibular jaw were canines (23%) (20%). In order of frequency: pontics of the upper jaw replaced first premolars (27%) and second premolars (23%); lower jaw pontics replaced first molars (36%) and second premolars (21%). Findings of our survey demonstrated that results were much jaw dependent, while participants' sex and age influenced the outcome less. Comparison between left and right side of the arch revealed considerable symmetry. Recently collected data of 2004 have shown increased extension of fixed partial dentures with significantly higher number of abutment teeth involved. Statistical analysis of data collected on fixed

  2. Estimating Reliability of Disturbances in Satellite Time Series Data Based on Statistical Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Z.-G.; Tang, P.; Zhou, M.

    2016-06-01

    Normally, the status of land cover is inherently dynamic and changing continuously on temporal scale. However, disturbances or abnormal changes of land cover — caused by such as forest fire, flood, deforestation, and plant diseases — occur worldwide at unknown times and locations. Timely detection and characterization of these disturbances is of importance for land cover monitoring. Recently, many time-series-analysis methods have been developed for near real-time or online disturbance detection, using satellite image time series. However, the detection results were only labelled with "Change/ No change" by most of the present methods, while few methods focus on estimating reliability (or confidence level) of the detected disturbances in image time series. To this end, this paper propose a statistical analysis method for estimating reliability of disturbances in new available remote sensing image time series, through analysis of full temporal information laid in time series data. The method consists of three main steps. (1) Segmenting and modelling of historical time series data based on Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST). (2) Forecasting and detecting disturbances in new time series data. (3) Estimating reliability of each detected disturbance using statistical analysis based on Confidence Interval (CI) and Confidence Levels (CL). The method was validated by estimating reliability of disturbance regions caused by a recent severe flooding occurred around the border of Russia and China. Results demonstrated that the method can estimate reliability of disturbances detected in satellite image with estimation error less than 5% and overall accuracy up to 90%.

  3. Super-High Resolution Time Interval Measurement Method Based on Time-Space Relationships

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DU Bao-Qiang; ZHOU Wei

    2009-01-01

    Based on the principle of quantized delay-time, a super-high resolution time interval measurement method is proposed based on time-space relationships.Using the delay-time stability that time and frequency signal travel in a specific medium, the measured time interval can be quantized.Combined with the phase coincidence detection technique, the measurement of time can be changed into the measurement of space length.The resolution and the stability of the measurement system are easily improved.Experimental results show that the measurement resolution of the measured time interval depends on the length difference of the double delay-time unit.When the length difference is set up on millimeter level or sub-millimeter level, super-high measurement resolution from hundreds of picosecond to tens of picosecond can be obtained.

  4. E-resource knowledge bases and link resolvers: an assessment of the current products and emerging trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marshall Breeding

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This article summarizes the findings of a study on e-resource knowledge bases and OpenURL-based link resolvers sponsored by the National Library of Sweden. The project involved soliciting detailed information from each of the providers of the major products in this genre, reviewing product information available on the web and in published articles, and conducting a survey addressed to libraries using these products. The report identified and presented comparative information on a top tier of products that includes KnowledgeWorks and 360 Link from Serials Solutions; SFX Global KnowledgeBase and the SFX link resolver from Ex Libris; LinkSource and the EBSCO Integrated Knowledge Base from EBSCO and the WorldCat knowledge base from OCLC. A second tier included TOUResolver from TDNet, Gold Rush from the Colorado Alliance of Research Libraries and GODOT from Simon Fraser University. Innovative Interfaces, Inc offers the WebBridge link resolver but does not produce a knowledge base. The library survey revealed relatively narrow differences in the statistical results. Serial Solutions emerged as more favorable in most categories except for end-user functionality where Ex Libris received higher ratings. The Global Open Knowledgebase project (GOKb is noteworthy as a nascent community-based effort to produce a knowledge base. Key trends noted include less emphasis on knowledge bases and link resolvers as stand-alone products as they become integral components of comprehensive discovery and automation products.

  5. Building Real-Time Network Intrusion Detection System Based on Parallel Time-Series Mining Techniques

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhao Feng; Li Qinghua

    2005-01-01

    A new real-time model based on parallel time-series mining is proposed to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the network intrusion detection systems. In this model, multidimensional dataset is constructed to describe network events, and sliding window updating algorithm is used to maintain network stream. Moreover, parallel frequent patterns and frequent episodes mining algorithms are applied to implement parallel time-series mining engineer which can intelligently generate rules to distinguish intrusions from normal activities. Analysis and study on the basis of DAWNING 3000 indicate that this parallel time-series mining-based model provides a more accurate and efficient way to building real-time NIDS.

  6. Criterion-based laparoscopic training reduces total training time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brinkman, W.M.; Buzink, S.N.; Alevizos, L.; De Hingh, I.H.J.T.; Jakimowicz, J.J.

    2011-01-01

    The benefits of criterion-based laparoscopic training over time-oriented training are unclear. The purpose of this study is to compare these types of training based on training outcome and time efficiency. Methods During four training sessions within 1 week (one session per day) 34 medical interns (

  7. Criterion-based laparoscopic training reduces total training time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brinkman, W.M.; Buzink, S.N.; Alevizos, L.; De Hingh, I.H.J.T.; Jakimowicz, J.J.

    2012-01-01

    The benefits of criterion-based laparoscopic training over time-oriented training are unclear. The purpose of this study is to compare these types of training based on training outcome and time efficiency. Methods During four training sessions within 1 week (one session per day) 34 medical interns (

  8. A Citation-Based Analysis and Review of Significant Papers on Timing and Time Perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teki, Sundeep

    2016-01-01

    Time is an important dimension of brain function, but little is yet known about the underlying cognitive principles and neurobiological mechanisms. The field of timing and time perception has witnessed tremendous growth and multidisciplinary interest in the recent years with the advent of modern neuroimaging and neurophysiological approaches. In this article, I used a data mining approach to analyze the timing literature published by a select group of researchers (n = 202) during the period 2000-2015 and highlight important reviews as well as empirical articles that meet the criterion of a minimum of 100 citations. The qualifying articles (n = 150) are listed in a table along with key details such as number of citations, names of authors, year and journal of publication as well as a short summary of the findings of each study. The results of such a data-driven approach to literature review not only serve as a useful resource to any researcher interested in timing, but also provides a means to evaluate key papers that have significantly influenced the field and summarize recent progress and popular research trends in the field. Additionally, such analyses provides food for thought about future scientific directions and raises important questions about improving organizational structures to boost open science and progress in the field. I discuss exciting avenues for future research that have the potential to significantly advance our understanding of the neurobiology of timing, and propose the establishment of a new society, the Timing Research Forum, to promote open science and collaborative work within the highly diverse and multidisciplinary community of researchers in the field of timing and time perception.

  9. Highly comparative, feature-based time-series classification

    CERN Document Server

    Fulcher, Ben D

    2014-01-01

    A highly comparative, feature-based approach to time series classification is introduced that uses an extensive database of algorithms to extract thousands of interpretable features from time series. These features are derived from across the scientific time-series analysis literature, and include summaries of time series in terms of their correlation structure, distribution, entropy, stationarity, scaling properties, and fits to a range of time-series models. After computing thousands of features for each time series in a training set, those that are most informative of the class structure are selected using greedy forward feature selection with a linear classifier. The resulting feature-based classifiers automatically learn the differences between classes using a reduced number of time-series properties, and circumvent the need to calculate distances between time series. Representing time series in this way results in orders of magnitude of dimensionality reduction, allowing the method to perform well on ve...

  10. Trends and sensitivities of low streamflow extremes to discharge timing and magnitude in pacific northwest mountain streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Historical streamflow data from the Pacific Northwest indicate that the precipitation amount has been the dominant control on the magnitude of low streamflow extremes compared to the air temperature-affected timing of snowmelt runoff. The relative sensitivities of low streamflow to precipitation and...

  11. Research of Manufacture Time Management System Based on PLM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Ni; Juan, Zhu; Liangwei, Zhong

    This system is targeted by enterprises manufacturing machine shop, analyzes their business needs and builds the plant management information system of Manufacture time and Manufacture time information management. for manufacturing process Combined with WEB technology, based on EXCEL VBA development of methods, constructs a hybrid model based on PLM workshop Manufacture time management information system framework, discusses the functionality of the system architecture, database structure.

  12. PM trend study for the 1998 - 2012 period: Impact of Transport and Petroleum-based Fuels in Santiago Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, M. A.; Jhun, I.; Moreno, F.; Oyola, P.; Koutrakis, P.

    2013-05-01

    Santiago is the capital city of Chile and the combination of adverse climatic and geographical conditions, a continuously growing vehicle fleet, and an increasing number of industries, has made Santiago one of the most polluted cities in South America, and has been declared saturated zone for PM10 since 1996. Although there have been important reductions in the PM emissions due the implementation of the "Atmospheric Prevention and Decontamination Plan for the Metropolitan Region" (PPDA) however the efforts have not been enough to meet the actual standards. Currently is approved a standard for PM2.5, where the annual average is 20 μg/m3 and daily average 24 hr is 50 μg/m3. One of the PM2.5 sources are the traffic emission and one of the measures targeted in PPDA has been to regulate this source. In the last 20 years two of the main interventions have been the elimination of Lead in gasoline (2001) and the steadily reduced diesel sulfur content from 5,000 to 50 ppm. In this study we analyzed 14 years of PM2.5 mass and species concentration time's series, from April 1998 to August 2012, elemental chemical analysis was made for approximately 60% of samples using XRF technique at DRI Lab (USA). One of the objectives is evaluate the impact of fuel-related interventions and petroleum-based fuels (PBFs) sales. When was analyzed de lead concentration we found that is present in the environment despite of that was eliminated of gasoline 20 years ago. We analyzed the impact of diesel sulfur on ambient sulfur content, and was constructed a model to verify the relationship between ambient sulfur and diesel sulfur content after controlling for other covariates. The relation between ambient concentration and diesel content sulfur is linear, when the reduction of sulfur in diesel was from 1500 to 50 ppm the concentration decreased from 1.59 to 1.08 μg/m3. To determinate the impact of PBFs sales (gasoline, kerosene, petroleum) on PM2.5 concentration, we estimated PM2

  13. Variability and Trends in the Global Water Cycle Based on Multi-Decadal Earth Science Data Record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, E. F.; Coccia, G.; Pan, M.; Sheffield, J.

    2014-12-01

    Documentation of the global water cycle and its evolution over time has been a primary scientific goal of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges Project, and is fundamental to providing a benchmark for the present climate, to document inter-annual variability and global change impacts, and to validate models. In developed countries, observation systems that include in-situ, remote sensing and modeled data can provide long-term, consistent and generally high quality datasets of water cycle variables. In less developed, data sparse regions, in situ data alone are insufficient to develop a comprehensive picture of how the water cycle is changing, and strategies that merge in-situ, model and satellite observations within a framework that results in consistent water cycle records is essential. This presentation will utilize newly developed, multi-decadal water and energy cycles data sets to analyze and advance our understanding of the role of the terrestrial hydrosphere in Earth's climate system. The data sets include a 60-year global water cycle dataset developed through a NASA-sponsored multi-institutional effort under the NASA MEaSUREs program, multi-model terrestrial evapotranspiration data sets coordinated under the GEWEX Data and Assessments Panel (GDAP) as part of the LandFlux initiative, and ocean evaporation under SeaFlux. The foundations of the datasets are a variety of independent large-scale datasets of the hydrologic variables that are used to bridge the gap between sparse in-situ observations, including remote-sensing based retrievals, observation-forced hydrologic modeling, and weather model reanalyses. Analyses are carried out across a range of temporal and spatial scales from monthly to annual and decadal, and from ~250 river basins to continental and global scales, and will address long-standing GEWEX science questions that include (i) quantifying the nature and extent of changes (trends and variability) to the terrestrial hydrosphere over the last 60

  14. A fast density-based clustering algorithm for real-time Internet of Things stream.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amini, Amineh; Saboohi, Hadi; Wah, Teh Ying; Herawan, Tutut

    2014-01-01

    Data streams are continuously generated over time from Internet of Things (IoT) devices. The faster all of this data is analyzed, its hidden trends and patterns discovered, and new strategies created, the faster action can be taken, creating greater value for organizations. Density-based method is a prominent class in clustering data streams. It has the ability to detect arbitrary shape clusters, to handle outlier, and it does not need the number of clusters in advance. Therefore, density-based clustering algorithm is a proper choice for clustering IoT streams. Recently, several density-based algorithms have been proposed for clustering data streams. However, density-based clustering in limited time is still a challenging issue. In this paper, we propose a density-based clustering algorithm for IoT streams. The method has fast processing time to be applicable in real-time application of IoT devices. Experimental results show that the proposed approach obtains high quality results with low computation time on real and synthetic datasets.

  15. A Fast Density-Based Clustering Algorithm for Real-Time Internet of Things Stream

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amineh Amini

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Data streams are continuously generated over time from Internet of Things (IoT devices. The faster all of this data is analyzed, its hidden trends and patterns discovered, and new strategies created, the faster action can be taken, creating greater value for organizations. Density-based method is a prominent class in clustering data streams. It has the ability to detect arbitrary shape clusters, to handle outlier, and it does not need the number of clusters in advance. Therefore, density-based clustering algorithm is a proper choice for clustering IoT streams. Recently, several density-based algorithms have been proposed for clustering data streams. However, density-based clustering in limited time is still a challenging issue. In this paper, we propose a density-based clustering algorithm for IoT streams. The method has fast processing time to be applicable in real-time application of IoT devices. Experimental results show that the proposed approach obtains high quality results with low computation time on real and synthetic datasets.

  16. Neural Network Based Finite-Time Stabilization for Discrete-Time Markov Jump Nonlinear Systems with Time Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Chen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the finite-time stabilization problem for discrete-time Markov jump nonlinear systems with time delays and norm-bounded exogenous disturbance. The nonlinearities in different jump modes are parameterized by neural networks. Subsequently, a linear difference inclusion state space representation for a class of neural networks is established. Based on this, sufficient conditions are derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities to guarantee stochastic finite-time boundedness and stochastic finite-time stabilization of the closed-loop system. A numerical example is illustrated to verify the efficiency of the proposed technique.

  17. On timing properties of LYSO-based calorimeters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, D. [California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States); Apresyan, A. [California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States); Bornheim, A. [California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States); Duarte, J. [California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States); Pena, C. [California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States); Ronzhin, A. [Fermi National Accelerator Lab. (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States); Spiropulu, M. [California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States); Trevor, J. [California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States); Xie, S. [California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States)

    2015-04-23

    We present test beam studies and results on the timing performance and characterization of the time resolution of Lutetium–Yttrium Orthosilicate (LYSO)-based calorimeters. We also demonstrate that a time resolution of 30 ps is achievable for a particular design. Additionally, we discuss precision timing calorimetry as a tool for the mitigation of physics object performance degradation effects due to the large number of simultaneous interactions in the high luminosity environment foreseen at the Large Hadron Collider.

  18. On timing properties of LYSO-based calorimeters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, D.; Apresyan, A.; Bornheim, A.; Duarte, J.; Pena, C. [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (United States); Ronzhin, A. [Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, Batavia, IL (United States); Spiropulu, M., E-mail: smaria@caltech.edu [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (United States); Trevor, J.; Xie, S. [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (United States)

    2015-09-11

    We present test beam studies and results on the timing performance and characterization of the time resolution of Lutetium–Yttrium Orthosilicate (LYSO)-based calorimeters. We demonstrate that a time resolution of 30 ps is achievable for a particular design. Furthermore, we discuss precision timing calorimetry as a tool for the mitigation of physics object performance degradation effects due to the large number of simultaneous interactions in the high luminosity environment foreseen at the Large Hadron Collider.

  19. Research trends in evidence-based medicine: a joinpoint regression analysis of more than 50 years of publication data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bui The Hung

    Full Text Available Evidence-based medicine (EBM has developed as the dominant paradigm of assessment of evidence that is used in clinical practice. Since its development, EBM has been applied to integrate the best available research into diagnosis and treatment with the purpose of improving patient care. In the EBM era, a hierarchy of evidence has been proposed, including various types of research methods, such as meta-analysis (MA, systematic review (SRV, randomized controlled trial (RCT, case report (CR, practice guideline (PGL, and so on. Although there are numerous studies examining the impact and importance of specific cases of EBM in clinical practice, there is a lack of research quantitatively measuring publication trends in the growth and development of EBM. Therefore, a bibliometric analysis was constructed to determine the scientific productivity of EBM research over decades.NCBI PubMed database was used to search, retrieve and classify publications according to research method and year of publication. Joinpoint regression analysis was undertaken to analyze trends in research productivity and the prevalence of individual research methods.Analysis indicates that MA and SRV, which are classified as the highest ranking of evidence in the EBM, accounted for a relatively small but auspicious number of publications. For most research methods, the annual percent change (APC indicates a consistent increase in publication frequency. MA, SRV and RCT show the highest rate of publication growth in the past twenty years. Only controlled clinical trials (CCT shows a non-significant reduction in publications over the past ten years.Higher quality research methods, such as MA, SRV and RCT, are showing continuous publication growth, which suggests an acknowledgement of the value of these methods. This study provides the first quantitative assessment of research method publication trends in EBM.

  20. Varying trends in surface energy fluxes and associated climatebetween 1960-2002 based on transient climate simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nazarenko, Larissa; Menon, Surabi

    2005-07-20

    The observed reduction in land surface radiation over the last several decades (1960-1990)---the so-called ''dimming effect''--- and the more recent evidence of a reversal in ''dimming'' over some locations beyond 1990 suggest several consequences on climate, notably on the hydrological cycle. Such a reduction in radiation should imply reduced surface temperature (Ts) and precipitation, which have not occurred. We have investigated the possible causes for the above climate features using a climate model coupled to a dynamic ocean model under natural and anthropogenic conditions. To isolate the aerosol influence on surface radiation trends, we have analyzed transient climate simulations from1960 to 2002 with and without anthropogenic aerosols. Based on a linear trend with aerosol effects included, the global mean change in the surface solar radiation absorbed over land is -0.021+-0.0033 Wm-2yr-1. Although the overall trend is negative, we do note a reversal in dimming after 1990, consistent with observations. Without aerosol effects, the surface solar radiation absorbed over land increases throughout 1960 to 2002, mainly due to the decrease in cloud cover associated with increased greenhouse warming. In spite of a simulated increase in Ts of 0.012 Kyr-1 for 1960 to 2002, the global mean latent heat flux and associated intensity of the hydrological cycle decrease overall, however with increases over some land locations due mainly to moisture advection. Simulated changes correspond more closely to observed changes when accounting for aerosol effects on climate.

  1. Estimating Trends of Population Decline in Long-Lived Marine Species in the Mediterranean Sea Based on Fishers' Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynou, Francesc; Sbrana, Mario; Sartor, Paolo; Maravelias, Christos; Kavadas, Stefanos; Damalas, Dimitros; Cartes, Joan E.; Osio, Giacomo

    2011-01-01

    We conducted interviews of a representative sample of 106 retired fishers in Italy, Spain and Greece, asking specific questions about the trends they perceived in dolphin and shark abundances between 1940 and 1999 (in three 20 year periods) compared to the present abundance. The large marine fauna studied were not target species of the commercial fleet segment interviewed (trawl fishery). The fishers were asked to rank the perceived abundance in each period into qualitative ordinal classes based on two indicators: frequency of sightings and frequency of catches (incidental or intentional) of each taxonomic group. The statistical analysis of the survey results showed that both incidental catches and the sighting frequency of dolphins have decreased significantly over the 60+ years of the study period (except for in Greece due to the recent population increase). This shows that fishers' perceptions are in agreement with the declining population trends detected by scientists. Shark catches were also perceived to have diminished since the early 1940s for all species. Other long-lived Mediterranean marine fauna (monk seals, whales) were at very low levels in the second half of the 20th century and no quantitative data could be obtained. Our study supports the results obtained in the Mediterranean and other seas that show the rapid disappearance (over a few decades) of marine fauna. We show that appropriately designed questionnaires help provide a picture of animal abundance in the past through the valuable perceptions of fishers. This information can be used to complement scientific sources or in some cases be taken as the only information source for establishing population trends in the abundance of sensitive species. PMID:21818268

  2. Trends of preterm birth and low birth weight in Japan: a one hospital-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yorifuji Takashi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The proportions of preterm birth (PTB, ie., delivered before 37 gestational weeks and low birth weight (LBW, ie., birth weight less than 2500 g at delivery have been rising in developed countries. We sought to examine the factors contributing to the rise in Japan, with particular focus on the effects of obstetric interventions. Methods We used a database maintained by one large regional hospital in Shizuoka, Japan. We restricted the analysis to mothers who delivered live singleton births from 1997 to 2010 (n = 19,221. We assessed the temporal trends in PTB and LBW, then divided the study period into four intervals and compared the proportions of PTB and LBW. We also compared the newborns’ outcomes between the intervals. Results PTB, in particular medically indicated PTB, increased considerably. The increase was largely explained by changes in caesarean sections. The neonatal outcomes did not worsen, and instead the Apgar scores and proportions requiring neonatal intensive care unit (NICU admission improved. In particular, the risks of NICU admission in the interval from 2007 to 2010 were decreased among all births [odds ratio (OR: 0.84; 95% confidence interval (CI: 0.75, 0.95] and medically indicated births (OR: 0.44; 95% CI: 0.29, 0.68 compared with the interval from 1997 to 2000. Conclusions Despite the increases in PTB as well as LBW, the present study suggests benefits of obstetric interventions. Rather than simple categorization of PTB or LBW, indicators such as perinatal mortality or other outcomes may be more appropriate for evaluation of perinatal health in developed countries.

  3. Tropical tropospheric ozone (TTO) maps from Nimbus 7 and Earth Probe TOMS by the modified-residual method: Evaluation with sondes, ENSO signals, and trends from Atlantic regional time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Anne M.; Hudson, Robert D.

    1999-11-01

    The modified-residual (MR) method for retrieving time-averaged stratospheric ozone and tropospheric ozone column amounts from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) is applied to the 14 complete calendar years of Nimbus 7 observations (1979-1992). These are available as digital data at http://metosrv2.umd.edu/˜tropo/14y_data.d The MR method has also been used to produce real-time maps of tropical tropospheric ozone (TTO) from TOMS on the Earth-Probe (1996-present) and ADEOS platforms (1996-1997). Evaluation of the TTO time series for 1979-1990 and 1997-1998 is presented here; it is limited to the few tropical ozonesonde stations operational during those years (Ascension Island; Natal, Brazil; Brazzaville). The standard deviation of the differences between TTO and the sondes is ±(6-7) Dobson units (DU), depending on location. Stratospheric column ozone, which is also derived by the modified-residual method, compares favorably with sondes (to within 6-9 DU) and with stratospheric ozone inferred from other satellites (usually 8-15 DU lower than the latter). TTO time series and the magnitude of the tropospheric wave-one pattern show El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals during the period from 1979-1992. During 1997 the ENSO stands out at some stations, but not at others. Between 12°N and 12°S, zonally averaged TTO shows no significant trend from 1980-1990. Trends are also not significant during this period in localized regions, for example, from just west of South America across to southern Africa. This is consistent with the ozonesonde record at Natal, Brazil (the only tropical ozone data publicly available for the 1980s), which shows no significant trend. The lack of trend in tropospheric ozone agrees with a statistical analysis based on another method for deriving TTO from TOMS, the convective-cloud-differential approach of Ziemke et al. [1998].

  4. Observations of, and sources of the spatial and temporal variability of ozone in the middle atmosphere on climatological time scales (OZMAP) and equatorial dynamics: Seasonal variations of ozone trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Entzian, G.; Grasnick, K. H.; Taubenheim, J.

    1989-01-01

    The long term trends (least square linear regression with time) of ozone content at seven European, seven North American, three Japanese and two tropical stations during 21 years (1964 to 1984) are analyzed. In all regions negative trends are observed during the 1970s, but are partly compensated by limited periods of positive trends during the late 1960s and late 1970s. Solely the North American ozone data show negative trends in all 10 year periods. When the long term ozone trends are evaluated for each month of the year separately, a seasonal variation is revealed, which in Europe and North America has largest negative trends in late winter and spring. While in Europe the negative trends in winter/spring are partly compensated by positive trends in summer, in North America the summer values reach only zero, retaining the significant negative trend in annual mean values. In contrast to the antarctic ozone hole, the spring reduction of ozone in Europe and in North America is associated with stratospheric temperatures increasing in the analyzed period and therefore is consistent with the major natural ozone production and loss processes.

  5. Bipolar square-wave current source for transient electromagnetic systems based on constant shutdown time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shilong; Yin, Changchun; Lin, Jun; Yang, Yu; Hu, Xueyan

    2016-03-01

    Cooperative work of multiple magnetic transmitting sources is a new trend in the development of transient electromagnetic system. The key is the bipolar current waves shutdown, concurrently in the inductive load. In the past, it was difficult to use the constant clamping voltage technique to realize the synchronized shutdown of currents with different peak values. Based on clamping voltage technique, we introduce a new controlling method with constant shutdown time. We use the rising time to control shutdown time and use low voltage power source to control peak current. From the viewpoint of the circuit energy loss, by taking the high-voltage capacitor bypass resistance and the capacitor of the passive snubber circuit into account, we establish the relationship between the rising time and the shutdown time. Since the switch is not ideal, we propose a new method to test the shutdown time by the low voltage, the high voltage and the peak current. Experimental results show that adjustment of the current rising time can precisely control the value of the clamp voltage. When the rising time is fixed, the shutdown time is unchanged. The error for shutdown time deduced from the energy consumption is less than 6%. The new controlling method on current shutdown proposed in this paper can be used in the cooperative work of borehole and ground transmitting system.

  6. Bipolar square-wave current source for transient electromagnetic systems based on constant shutdown time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shilong; Yin, Changchun; Lin, Jun; Yang, Yu; Hu, Xueyan

    2016-03-01

    Cooperative work of multiple magnetic transmitting sources is a new trend in the development of transient electromagnetic system. The key is the bipolar current waves shutdown, concurrently in the inductive load. In the past, it was difficult to use the constant clamping voltage technique to realize the synchronized shutdown of currents with different peak values. Based on clamping voltage technique, we introduce a new controlling method with constant shutdown time. We use the rising time to control shutdown time and use low voltage power source to control peak current. From the viewpoint of the circuit energy loss, by taking the high-voltage capacitor bypass resistance and the capacitor of the passive snubber circuit into account, we establish the relationship between the rising time and the shutdown time. Since the switch is not ideal, we propose a new method to test the shutdown time by the low voltage, the high voltage and the peak current. Experimental results show that adjustment of the current rising time can precisely control the value of the clamp voltage. When the rising time is fixed, the shutdown time is unchanged. The error for shutdown time deduced from the energy consumption is less than 6%. The new controlling method on current shutdown proposed in this paper can be used in the cooperative work of borehole and ground transmitting system.

  7. Federal Research and Development Contract Trends and the Supporting Industrial Base, 2000-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    póåÉêÖó=Ñçê=fåÑçêãÉÇ=`Ü~åÖÉ= - 326 - Panel 10. Assessing Industrial Base Implications of a Constrained Fiscal Climate Wednesday, May 4, 2016 3:30...Budget Control Act on High Risk Sectors and Tiers of the Defense Industrial Base: Assessment Approach to Industrial Base Risks Lirio Avilés, Engineer...been fears that the sharp downturn in federal contract obligations would disproportionately impact the R&D contracting portfolios within individual

  8. Influence of two different geo-climatic zones on the prevalence and time trends of asthma symptoms among Spanish adolescents and schoolchildren

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Marcos, Luis; Batllés-Garrido, José; Blanco-Quirós, Alfredo; García-Hernández, Gloria; Guillén-Grima, Francisco; González-Díaz, Carlos; García-Merino, Águeda; Arnedo-Pena, Alberto; Busquets-Monge, Rosa M.; Morales-Suárez-Varela, María; López-Silvarrey-Varela, Ángel; García-Andoin, Nekane

    2009-01-01

    Few studies have focused on the long-term influence of the climate on the prevalence of asthma. The aim of this study is to establish the influence of geo-climatic conditions on the prevalence of asthma symptoms both in adolescents and schoolchildren, and to discover if this influence is associated with their time trends. Eight centres in Spain performed both ISAAC phases I (1994) and III (2002) in children 13-14 years old. Six of them also surveyed children 6-7 years old. For each age group and phase, about 3,000 children were surveyed per centre. This study examines the prevalence of current wheeze and severe current wheeze in two different geo-climatic zones, coast and plateau, considering their relative humidity and temperature range. In both age groups, the mean asthma prevalence on the coast, for phase I and III, was significantly higher than on the plateau. Living on the plateau was an independent protective factor for current wheeze and severe current wheeze for the two age groups. Within the coastal centres, the increase of the annual relative humidity was a statistical significant risk factor for current wheeze, the same trend existing for current severe wheeze. These effects were independent of the sex and of the phase of the study. The prevalence of asthma and severe asthma symptoms is more frequent on the coast of Spain as compared to the inner plateau. This finding was repeated both in 1994 and in 2002.

  9. A risk-adjusted CUSUM in continuous time based on the Cox model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biswas, Pinaki; Kalbfleisch, John D

    2008-07-30

    In clinical practice, it is often important to monitor the outcomes associated with participating facilities. In organ transplantation, for example, it is important to monitor and assess the outcomes of the transplants performed at the participating centers and send a signal if a significant upward trend in the failure rates is detected. In manufacturing and process control contexts, the cumulative summation (CUSUM) technique has been used as a sequential monitoring scheme for some time. More recently, the CUSUM has also been suggested for use in medical contexts. In this article, we outline a risk-adjusted CUSUM procedure based on the Cox model for a failure time outcome. Theoretical approximations to the average run length are obtained for this new proposal and for some discrete time procedures suggested in the literature. The proposed scheme and approximations are evaluated in simulations and illustrated on transplant facility data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients.

  10. A unified model of time perception accounts for duration-based and beat-based timing mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sundeep eTeki

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate timing is an integral aspect of sensory and motor processes such as the perception of speech and music and the execution of skilled movement. Neuropsychological studies of time perception in patient groups and functional neuroimaging studies of timing in normal participants suggest common neural substrates for perceptual and motor timing. A timing system is implicated in core regions of the motor network such as the cerebellum, inferior olive, basal ganglia, pre-supplementary and supplementary motor area, pre-motor cortex and higher regions such as the prefrontal cortex.In this article, we assess how distinct parts of the timing system subserve different aspects of perceptual timing. We previously established brain bases for absolute, duration-based timing and relative, beat-based timing in the olivocerebellar and striato-thalamo-cortical circuits respectively (Teki et al., 2011. However, neurophysiological and neuroanatomical studies provide a basis to suggest that timing functions of these circuits may not be independent.Here, we propose a unified model of time perception based on coordinated activity in the core striatal and olivocerebellar networks that are interconnected with each other and the cerebral cortex th

  11. Analysis and Trend Determination of the Evolution of Tourist Accommodation Establishments (Adjusted Data Based Seasonally in the European Union (28 with Analytical Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodica Pripoaie

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This work presents the comparative analysis and trend determination of the evolution tourist accommodation establishments in the European Union (28, adjusted data based seasonally, in the period May 2014 - December 2014 used the Analytical Methods. The principal causes of the evolution tourist accommodation establishments were: the general economic evolution of industries and GDP per capita, the relatively low revenue or low development of the infrastructure. Trend determination of the evolution tourist accommodation establishments in the European Union (28 with analytical methods requires least squares method. On the base the results of the absolute deviations between empirical and theoretical values for the linear, curvilinear and modified exponential regression, will choose the best trend equation for the smallest variation. The best trend model for evolution tourist accommodation establishments in EU (28 is modelled using linear regression equation.

  12. Priority Based Dynamic Round Robin (PBDRR Algorithm with Intelligent Time Slice for Soft Real Time Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prof. Rakesh Mohanty

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a new variant of Round Robin (RR algorithm is proposed which is suitable for soft real time systems. RR algorithm performs optimally in timeshared systems, but it is not suitable for soft real time systems. Because it gives more number of context switches, larger waiting time and larger response time. We have proposed a novel algorithm, known as Priority Based Dynamic Round Robin Algorithm(PBDRR, which calculates intelligent time slice for individual processes and changes after every round of execution. The proposed scheduling algorithm is developed by taking dynamic time quantum concept into account. Our experimental results show that our proposed algorithm performs better than algorithm in [8] in terms of reducing the number of context switches, average waiting time and average turnaround time.

  13. Parametric adaptive time-frequency representation based on time-sheared Gabor atoms

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ma Shiwei; Zhu Xiaojin; Chen Guanghua; Wang Jian; Cao Jialin

    2007-01-01

    A localized parametric time-sheared Gabor atom is derived by convolving a linear frequency modulated factor, modulating in frequency and translating in time to a dilated Gaussian function, which is the generalization of Gabor atom and is more delicate for matching most of the signals encountered in practice, especially for those having frequency dispersion characteristics. The time-frequency distribution of this atom concentrates in its time center and frequency center along energy curve, with the curve being oblique to a certain extent along the time axis. A novel parametric adaptive time-frequency distribution based on a set of the derived atoms is then proposed using a adaptive signal subspace decomposition method in frequency domain, which is non-negative time-frequency energy distribution and free of cross-term interference for multicomponent signals. The results of numerical simulation manifest the effectiveness of the approach in time-frequency representation and signal de-noising processing.

  14. Priority Based Dynamic Round Robin (PBDRR) Algorithm with Intelligent Time Slice for Soft Real Time Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Mohanty, Rakesh; Patwari, Khusbu; Dash, Monisha; Prasanna, M Lakshmi

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a new variant of Round Robin (RR) algorithm is proposed which is suitable for soft real time systems. RR algorithm performs optimally in timeshared systems, but it is not suitable for soft real time systems. Because it gives more number of context switches, larger waiting time and larger response time. We have proposed a novel algorithm, known as Priority Based Dynamic Round Robin Algorithm(PBDRR),which calculates intelligent time slice for individual processes and changes after every round of execution. The proposed scheduling algorithm is developed by taking dynamic time quantum concept into account. Our experimental results show that our proposed algorithm performs better than algorithm in [8] in terms of reducing the number of context switches, average waiting time and average turnaround time.

  15. Time series analysis of temporal trends in the pertussis incidence in Mainland China from 2005 to 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Qianglin; Li, Dandan; Huang, Gui; Xia, Jin; Wang, Xiaoming; Zhang, Yamei; Tang, Wanping; Zhou, Hui

    2016-08-31

    Short-term forecast of pertussis incidence is helpful for advanced warning and planning resource needs for future epidemics. By utilizing the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and Exponential Smoothing (ETS) model as alterative models with R software, this paper analyzed data from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) between January 2005 and June 2016. The ARIMA (0,1,0)(1,1,1)12 model (AICc = 1342.2 BIC = 1350.3) was selected as the best performing ARIMA model and the ETS (M,N,M) model (AICc = 1678.6, BIC = 1715.4) was selected as the best performing ETS model, and the ETS (M,N,M) model with the minimum RMSE was finally selected for in-sample-simulation and out-of-sample forecasting. Descriptive statistics showed that the reported number of pertussis cases by China CDC increased by 66.20% from 2005 (4058 cases) to 2015 (6744 cases). According to Hodrick-Prescott filter, there was an apparent cyclicity and seasonality in the pertussis reports. In out of sample forecasting, the model forecasted a relatively high incidence cases in 2016, which predicates an increasing risk of ongoing pertussis resurgence in the near future. In this regard, the ETS model would be a useful tool in simulating and forecasting the incidence of pertussis, and helping decision makers to take efficient decisions based on the advanced warning of disease incidence.

  16. X-Ray Pulsar Based Navigation and Time Determination Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Microcosm will build on the Phase I X-ray pulsar-based navigation and timing (XNAV) feasibility assessment to develop a detailed XNAV simulation capability to...

  17. Mining Distance-Based Outliers in Near Linear Time

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Full title: Mining Distance-Based Outliers in Near Linear Time with Randomization and a Simple Pruning Rule Abstract: Defining outliers by their distance to...

  18. Tendência temporal de afastamento do trabalho em servidores públicos (1995-2005 Time trends of sick leave in Brazilian civil servants (1995-2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane Bittencourt Cunha

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Analisar a tendência temporal das taxas de afastamento do trabalho por problemas de saúde de servidores públicos estaduais, das Secretarias de Estado da Saúde e da Administração do Estado de Santa Catarina, no período de 1995 a 2005. MÉTODOS: Estudo ecológico exploratório de séries temporais com utilização de dados secundários. Foram calculadas as taxas de afastamento segundo secretaria, sexo e grupos de patologias. Utilizou-se o procedimento de Prais-Winsten para a análise de tendência. RESULTADOS: Foram analisados 40.370 afastamentos. A tendência das taxas de afastamento foi de decréscimo para ambas as secretarias, considerando ambos os gêneros. Para o gênero feminino da SEA, a tendência foi de estabilidade. As taxas foram mais elevadas na SES. O número médio de dias de afastamento aumentou no decorrer do período analisado. Segundo os grupos de patologias (CID 10, as maiores taxas foram encontradas nos capítulos V, XIII, XXI, XIX e IX. CONCLUSÕES: A tendência de decréscimo das taxas de afastamento e o respectivo aumento da média de dias de afastamento refletem mudanças no perfil de morbidade dos servidores públicos, com o predomínio de transtornos mentais e doenças do sistema osteomuscular, que exigem maior tempo de recuperação para o retorno ao trabalho. O estudo sugere a investigação de fatores associados ao adoecimento que fundamentem as políticas de saúde do servidor.OBJECTIVE: To analyze time trends of sick leave rates among state civil servants in the State Secretariats of Health and of Administration in Santa Catarina, Brazil from 1995 to 2005. METHOD: This is an ecological study with secondary data. Rates of sick leave were calculated according to State Secretariat (Health and Administration, gender, and pathological groups. Prais-Winsten procedure was utilized to analyze trends. RESULTS: 40,370 absences were analyzed. The trend of sick leave rates was decreasing for both State

  19. Adaptive Fourier Decomposition Based Time-Frequency Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li-Ming Zhang

    2014-01-01

    The attempt to represent a signal simultaneously in time and frequency domains is full of challenges. The recently proposed adaptive Fourier decomposition (AFD) offers a practical approach to solve this problem. This paper presents the principles of the AFD based time-frequency analysis in three aspects: instantaneous frequency analysis, frequency spectrum analysis, and the spectrogram analysis. An experiment is conducted and compared with the Fourier transform in convergence rate and short-time Fourier transform in time-frequency distribution. The proposed approach performs better than both the Fourier transform and short-time Fourier transform.

  20. New software rejuvenation strategy based on measurement and time

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    Operational software systems often experience an "aging" phenomenon, characterized by progressive performance degradation and a sudden hang/crash failure. Software rejuvenation is a proactive fault-tolerance strategy aimed to prevent unexpected outages due to aging. A new rejuvenation strategy based on measurement and time, and constructs a SRN model to evaluate this strategy. Numerical results show that this strategy outweighs either the purely measurementbased or the purely time-based strategy and can effectively improve system performance.

  1. Status and Trends of GAP Base Construction of Chinese Materia Medica in Guangdong Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DING Ping; LAI Xiao-ping; XU Hong-hua; DU Qin; WANG Jian-gang; YING Ge; LIAO Hui-jun; DAI Lei; SHAO Yan-hua

    2012-01-01

    It is one of the key points for modernization and internationalization of traditional Chinese medicines to construct the Good Agricultural Practice (GAP) base of Chinese materia medica (CMM).GAP helps to minimize contamination and improve the quality of CMM during the plantation and the production of Chinese crude drugs.In this article,the status and development of CMM production bases of GAP in Guangdong Province,China,are presented.The suggestions upon the problems during the development of GAP for Chinese crude drugs are also provided.

  2. TIME-RESOLVED PROPERTIES AND GLOBAL TRENDS IN dMe FLARES FROM SIMULTANEOUS PHOTOMETRY AND SPECTRA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kowalski, Adam F.; Hawley, Suzanne L.; Davenport, James R. A. [Astronomy Department, University of Washington, Box 351580, U.W. Seattle, WA 98195-1580 (United States); Wisniewski, John P. [HL Dodge Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Oklahoma, 440 W Brooks Street, Norman, OK 73019 (United States); Osten, Rachel A. [Space Telescope Science Institute, 3700 San Martin Drive Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Hilton, Eric J. [Universe Sandbox, Seattle, WA (United States); Holtzman, Jon A. [Department of Astronomy, New Mexico State University, Box 30001, Las Cruces, NM 88003 (United States); Schmidt, Sarah J., E-mail: adam.f.kowalski@nasa.gov [Department of Astronomy, Ohio State University, 140 West 18th Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States)

    2013-07-15

    We present a homogeneous analysis of line and continuum emission from simultaneous high-cadence spectra and photometry covering near-ultraviolet and optical wavelengths for 20 M dwarf flares. These data were obtained to study the white-light continuum components at bluer and redder wavelengths than the Balmer jump. Our goals were to break the degeneracy between emission mechanisms that have been fit to broadband colors of flares and to provide constraints for radiative-hydrodynamic (RHD) flare models that seek to reproduce the white-light flare emission. The main results from the analysis are the following: (1) the detection of Balmer continuum (in emission) that is present during all flares and with a wide range of relative contributions to the continuum flux at bluer wavelengths than the Balmer jump; (2) a blue continuum at flare maximum that is linearly decreasing with wavelength from {lambda} = 4000-4800 A, indicative of hot, blackbody emission with typical temperatures of T{sub BB} {approx} 9000-14, 000 K; (3) a redder continuum apparent at wavelengths longer than H{beta} ({lambda} {approx}> 4900 A) which becomes relatively more important to the energy budget during the late gradual phase. The hot blackbody component and redder continuum component have been detected in previous studies of flares. However, we have found that although the hot blackbody emission component is relatively well-represented by a featureless, single-temperature Planck function, this component includes absorption features and has a continuum shape strikingly similar to the spectrum of an A-type star as directly observed in our flare spectra. New model constraints are presented for the time evolution among the hydrogen Balmer lines and between Ca II K and the blackbody continuum emission. We calculate Balmer jump flux ratios and compare to the solar-type flare heating predictions from RHD models. The model ratios are too large and the blue-optical ({lambda} = 4000-4800 A) slopes are too

  3. RETRIEVAL TIME RESEARCH IN TEMPORAL KNOWLEDGE BASES WITH DYNAMIC CONTENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Koroleva

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Results of retrieval time research of actual data effectiveness search in temporal knowledge bases built in the basis of state of events have been proposed. This type of knowledge base gives the possibility for quick access to relevant states as well as for history based on events chronology. It is shown that data storage for deep retrospective increases significantly the search time due to the growth of the decision tree. The search time for temporal knowledge bases depending on the average number of events prior to the current state has been investigated. Experimental results confirm the advantage of knowledge bases in the basis of state of events over traditional methods for design of intelligent systems.

  4. UML statechart based rigorous modeling of real-time system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LAI Ming-zhi; YOU Jin-yuan

    2005-01-01

    Rigorous modeling could ensure correctness and could verify a reduced cost in embedded real-time system development for models. Software methods are needed for rigorous modeling of embedded real-time systems. PVS is a formal method with precise syntax and semantics defined. System modeled by PVS specification could be verified by tools. Combining the widely used UML with PVS, this paper provides a novel modeling and verification approach for embedded real-time systems. In this approach, we provide 1 ) a time-extended UML statechart for modeling dynamic behavior of an embedded real-time system; 2) an approach to capture timed automata based semantics from a timed statechart; and 3) an algorithm to generate a finite state model expressed in PVS specification for model checking. The benefits of our approach include flexibility and user friendliness in modeling, extendability in formalization and verification content, and better performance. Time constraints are modeled and verified and is a highlight of this paper.

  5. Trend obchodu pivem

    OpenAIRE

    Kolář, Petr

    2016-01-01

    Thesis The beer trade trends identifies variables which have an impact on the consumption of beer and predicts the trend of trade in beer in the Czech Republic in the globalization context. To achieve the results was used linear econometric model. Using the Method of least squares determined the size and direction of individual variables for beer consumption. Based on the verified model is a model applicated and based on software Gretl is predicted the beer consumption for a period of 3 ye...

  6. Creating lift versus building the base : Current trends in marketing dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeflang, P.S.H.; Bijmolt, T.H.A.; van Doorn, J.; Hanssens, D.M.; van Heerde, H.J.; Verhoef, P.C.; Wieringa, J.E.

    2009-01-01

    Markets are dynamic by nature; and marketing-efforts can be directed to stimulate, reduce, or to utilize these dynamics. The field of marketing dynamics aims at modeling the effects of marketing actions and policies on short-term performance ("lift") and on long-term performance ("base"). One of the

  7. Computer-Based Instruction: Roots, Origins, Applications, Benefits, Features, Systems, Trends and Issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofstetter, Fred T.

    Dealing exclusively with instructional computing, this paper describes how computers are delivering instruction in a wide variety of subjects to students of all ages and explains why computer-based education is currently having a profound impact on education. After a discussion of roots and origins, computer applications are described for…

  8. Research Trends in the Study of ICT Based Learning Communities: A Bibliometric Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández, Jonathan Bermúdez; Chalela, Salim; Arias, Jackeline Valencia; Arias, Alejandro Valencia

    2017-01-01

    The current opportunities to develop and acquire knowledge in the network, Information and Communications Technology (ICT) play a major role in the learning process. This research offers a bibliometric analysis in order to examine the state of the research activity carried out in relation to the learning communities based on ICT. The indicators…

  9. LDA Based Face Recognition by Using Hidden Markov Model in Current Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.Sharavanan

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Hidden Markov model (HMM is a promising method that works well for images with variations in lighting, facial expression, and orientation. Face recognition draws attention as a complex task due to noticeable changes produced on appearance by illumination, facial expression, size, orientation and other external factors. To process images using HMM, the temporal or space sequences are to be considered. In simple terms HMM can be defined as set of finite states with associated probability distributions. Only the outcome is visible to the external user not the states and hence the name Hidden Markov Model. The paper deals with various techniques and methodologies used for resolving the problem .We discuss about appearance based, feature based, model based and hybrid methods for face identification. Conventional techniques such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA, Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA, Independent Component Analysis (ICA, and feature based Elastic Bunch Graph Matching (EBGM and 2D and 3D face models are well-known for face detection and recognition.

  10. Time difference based measurement of ultrasonic cavitations in wastewater treatment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱昌平

    2016-01-01

    Intensity of cavitation is significant in ultrasonic wastewater treatment, but is complicated to measure.A time difference based method of ultrasonic cavitation measurement is proposed.The time differences at different powers of 495kHz ultrasonic are measured in experiment in comparison with conductimetric method.Simulation results show that time difference and electrical conductivity are both approximately positive proportional to the ultrasonic power.The degradation of PNP solution verifies the availability in wastewater treatment by using ultrasonic.

  11. Family income and education were related with 30-year time trends in dietary and meal behaviors of American children and adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kant, Ashima K; Graubard, Barry I

    2013-05-01

    Recent survey data reveal the persistence of long-acknowledged socioeconomic status (SES) differentials in the prevalence of obesity in U.S. children and adolescents. We examined 30-y changes in the association of dietary and meal behaviors with family income and education to understand the possible contribution of these trends to SES trends in obesity rates in 2- to 19-y-old Americans. We used dietary and SES data for 2- to 19-y olds from the NHANES 1971-1974 to 2003-2008 (n = 39,822). The secular changes in the independent association of family income and education with 24-h dietary behaviors [energy intake (kcal), amount of foods and beverages (g), percent energy from all beverages and from nutritive beverages, and energy density of foods] and 24-h meal behaviors [number of eating occasions, energy from snack episodes (%), and mention of breakfast] were examined using multivariable regression methods. The secular increase in energy intake and food and beverage amount was significant in the lowest family SES categories. The positive association of family income and education with intakes of energy, food amounts, and beverage energy, noted in 1971-1974 or 1976-1980, was not observed in later surveys. There was an age gradient in changes in most diet and SES associations over time, with largest adverse changes in 12- to 19-y olds. Higher education was associated with lower energy from snack episodes, breakfast skipping, and energy density of foods and these associations did not change over time. Overall, these results suggest both income and education differentials in secular increases in food amounts and energy intakes.

  12. Rectal temperature-based death time estimation in infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Igari, Yui; Hosokai, Yoshiyuki; Funayama, Masato

    2016-03-01

    In determining the time of death in infants based on rectal temperature, the same methods used in adults are generally used. However, whether the methods for adults are suitable for infants is unclear. In this study, we examined the following 3 methods in 20 infant death cases: computer simulation of rectal temperature based on the infinite cylinder model (Ohno's method), computer-based double exponential approximation based on Marshall and Hoare's double exponential model with Henssge's parameter determination (Henssge's method), and computer-based collinear approximation based on extrapolation of the rectal temperature curve (collinear approximation). The interval between the last time the infant was seen alive and the time that he/she was found dead was defined as the death time interval and compared with the estimated time of death. In Ohno's method, 7 cases were within the death time interval, and the average deviation in the other 12 cases was approximately 80 min. The results of both Henssge's method and collinear approximation were apparently inferior to the results of Ohno's method. The corrective factor was set within the range of 0.7-1.3 in Henssge's method, and a modified program was newly developed to make it possible to change the corrective factors. Modification A, in which the upper limit of the corrective factor range was set as the maximum value in each body weight, produced the best results: 8 cases were within the death time interval, and the average deviation in the other 12 cases was approximately 80min. There was a possibility that the influence of thermal isolation on the actual infants was stronger than that previously shown by Henssge. We conclude that Ohno's method and Modification A are useful for death time estimation in infants. However, it is important to accept the estimated time of death with certain latitude considering other circumstances.

  13. Predicting future trends in stock market by decision tree rough-set based hybrid system with HHMM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shweta Tiwari

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Around the world, trading in the stock market has gained huge attractiveness as a means through which, one can obtain vast profits. Attempting to profitably and precisely predict the financial market has long engrossed the interests and attention of bankers, economists and scientists alike. Stock market prediction is the act of trying, to determine the future value of a company’s stock or other financial instrument traded on a financial exchange. Accurate stock market predictions are important for many reasons. Chief among all is the need for investors, to hedge against potential market risks and the opportunities for arbitrators and speculators, to make profits by trading indexes. Stock Market is a place, where shares are issued and traded. These shares are either traded through Stock exchanges or Overthe-Counter in physical or electronic form. Data mining, as a process of discovering useful patterns, correlations has its own role in financial modeling. Data mining is a discipline in computational intelligence that deals with knowledge discovery, data analysis and full and semi-autonomous decision making. Prediction of stock market by data mining techniques has been receiving a lot of attention recently. This paper presents a hybrid system based on decision tree- rough set, for predicting the trends in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSESENSEX with the combination of Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model. In this paper we present future trends on the bases of price earnings and dividend. The data on accounting earnings when averaged over many years help to predict the present value of future dividends.

  14. Workshop proceedings:CBRecSys 2014. Workshop on New Trends in Content-based Recommender Systems

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    While content-based recommendation has been applied successfully in many different domains, it has not seen the same level of attention as collaborative filtering techniques have. In recent years, competitions like the Netflix Prize, CAMRA, and the Yahoo! Music KDD Cup 2011 have spurred on advances in collaborative filtering and how to utilize ratings and usage data. However, there are many domains where content and metadata play a key role, either in addition to or instead of ratings and imp...

  15. Regulatory and Other Trends Relevant to Acquisition and Planning for the Future Defense Industrial Base

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-01

    Acquisition and Planning for the Future Defense Industrial Base 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT...expanding  SB 484 and 1379 -- CA, 2005 and 2006, disclosure of chemicals in cosmetics and US’s first bio-monitoring program cataloguing human exposure to...Biomonitoring shows bioaccumulation of chemicals in humans and animal kingdom  New understanding of intergenerational effects  Public/worker

  16. Clarification of vaccines: An overview of filter based technology trends and best practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besnard, Lise; Fabre, Virginie; Fettig, Michael; Gousseinov, Elina; Kawakami, Yasuhiro; Laroudie, Nicolas; Scanlan, Claire; Pattnaik, Priyabrata

    2016-01-01

    Vaccines are derived from a variety of sources including tissue extracts, bacterial cells, virus particles, recombinant mammalian, yeast and insect cell produced proteins and nucleic acids. The most common method of vaccine production is based on an initial fermentation process followed by purification. Production of vaccines is a complex process involving many different steps and processes. Selection of the appropriate purification method is critical to achieving desired purity of the final product. Clarification of vaccines is a critical step that strongly impacts product recovery and subsequent downstream purification. There are several technologies that can be applied for vaccine clarification. Selection of a harvesting method and equipment depends on the type of cells, product being harvested, and properties of the process fluids. These techniques include membrane filtration (microfiltration, tangential-flow filtration), centrifugation, and depth filtration (normal flow filtration). Historically vaccine harvest clarification was usually achieved by centrifugation followed by depth filtration. Recently membrane based technologies have gained prominence in vaccine clarification. The increasing use of single-use technologies in upstream processes necessitated a shift in harvest strategies. This review offers a comprehensive view on different membrane based technologies and their application in vaccine clarification, outlines the challenges involved and presents the current state of best practices in the clarification of vaccines.

  17. Support vector machine based estimation of remaining useful life: current research status and future trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Hong Zhong; Wang, Hai Kun; Li, Yan Feng; Zhang, Longlong; Liu, Zhiliang [University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu (China)

    2015-01-15

    Estimation of remaining useful life (RUL) is helpful to manage life cycles of machines and to reduce maintenance cost. Support vector machine (SVM) is a promising algorithm for estimation of RUL because it can easily process small training sets and multi-dimensional data. Many SVM based methods have been proposed to predict RUL of some key components. We did a literature review related to SVM based RUL estimation within a decade. The references reviewed are classified into two categories: improved SVM algorithms and their applications to RUL estimation. The latter category can be further divided into two types: one, to predict the condition state in the future and then build a relationship between state and RUL; two, to establish a direct relationship between current state and RUL. However, SVM is seldom used to track the degradation process and build an accurate relationship between the current health condition state and RUL. Based on the above review and summary, this paper points out that the ability to continually improve SVM, and obtain a novel idea for RUL prediction using SVM will be future works.

  18. Real-time collaboration in activity-based architectures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bardram, Jakob Eyvind; Christensen, Henrik Bærbak

    2004-01-01

    With the growing research into mobile and ubiquitous computing, there is a need for addressing how such infrastructures can support collaboration between nomadic users. We present the activity based computing paradigm and outline a proposal for handling collaboration in an activity......-based architecture. We argue that activity-based computing establishes a natural and sound conceptual and architectural basis for session management in real-time, synchronous collaboration....

  19. Image-Based Learning Approach Applied to Time Series Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Chimal-Eguía

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a new learning approach based on time-series image information is presented. In order to implementthis new learning technique, a novel time-series input data representation is also defined. This input datarepresentation is based on information obtained by image axis division into boxes. The difference between this newinput data representation and the classical is that this technique is not time-dependent. This new information isimplemented in the new Image-Based Learning Approach (IBLA and by means of a probabilistic mechanism thislearning technique is applied to the interesting problem of time series forecasting. The experimental results indicatethat by using the methodology proposed in this article, it is possible to obtain better results than with the classicaltechniques such as artificial neuronal networks and support vector machines.

  20. Explaining the Increase in the Australian Average House Completion Time:Activity-based versus Workflow-based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehsan Gharaie

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The Australian house building industry has been facing an increase in the average house completion time in the last decade. This increase in some states is quite dramatic. For instance, Western Australia has faced a 70 percent increase in the average house completion time during this period. This paper uses two planning approaches to explain this; i the activity-based planning methods and ii the workflow-based planning methods. In addition, this research investigates the strengths and weaknesses of these two planning approaches in explaining the behaviour of the house building industry. For this purpose, a national case study and five state case studies including Victoria, Western Australia, New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia have been used. The data related to the key parameters have been collected and their correlation with the average house completion time has been investigated. These key parameters include the average house floor area, the number of house completions and the number of houses under construction. The reasons for the increasing trend of the average house completion time have been postulated in all case studies. According to this research, the increase in the average house completion time cannot be explained using activity-based planning methods. In contrast, by using workflow-based planning methods, it has been shown that the average house completion time is correlated with the number of houses under construction. This paper shows that the average completion time is influenced directly by the workflow in the house building industry and that workflow planning should be the basis for the house building industry planning.

  1. [Present status and trend of heart fluid mechanics research based on medical image analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Jianhong; Yin, Lixue; Xie, Shenghua; Li, Wenhua; Lu, Jing; Luo, Anguo

    2014-06-01

    With introduction of current main methods for heart fluid mechanics researches, we studied the characteristics and weakness for three primary analysis methods based on magnetic resonance imaging, color Doppler ultrasound and grayscale ultrasound image, respectively. It is pointed out that particle image velocity (PIV), speckle tracking and block match have the same nature, and three algorithms all adopt block correlation. The further analysis shows that, with the development of information technology and sensor, the research for cardiac function and fluid mechanics will focus on energy transfer process of heart fluid, characteristics of Chamber wall related to blood fluid and Fluid-structure interaction in the future heart fluid mechanics fields.

  2. Audio Effects Based on Biorthogonal Time-Varying Frequency Warping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cavaliere Sergio

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available We illustrate the mathematical background and musical use of a class of audio effects based on frequency warping. These effects alter the frequency content of a signal via spectral mapping. They can be implemented in dispersive tapped delay lines based on a chain of all-pass filters. In a homogeneous line with first-order all-pass sections, the signal formed by the output samples at a given time is related to the input via the Laguerre transform. However, most musical signals require a time-varying frequency modification in order to be properly processed. Vibrato in musical instruments or voice intonation in the case of vocal sounds may be modeled as small and slow pitch variations. Simulation of these effects requires techniques for time-varying pitch and/or brightness modification that are very useful for sound processing. The basis for time-varying frequency warping is a time-varying version of the Laguerre transformation. The corresponding implementation structure is obtained as a dispersive tapped delay line, where each of the frequency dependent delay element has its own phase response. Thus, time-varying warping results in a space-varying, inhomogeneous, propagation structure. We show that time-varying frequency warping is associated to an expansion over biorthogonal sets generalizing the discrete Laguerre basis. Slow time-varying characteristics lead to slowly varying parameter sequences. The corresponding sound transformation does not suffer from discontinuities typical of delay lines based on unit delays.

  3. Trend and Seasonal Patterns of Injuries and Mortality Due to Motorcyclists Traffic Accidents; A Hospital-Based Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjan Hosseinpour

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To investigate trend and seasonal pattern of occurrence and mortality of motorcycle accidents in patients referred to hospitals of Isfahan. Methods: This cross-sectional study was carried out using traffic accidents data of Isfahan province, extracted from Ministry of Health (MOH database from 2006 to 2010. During the study period, 83648 people injured due to motorcycle traffic accidents were referred to hospitals, all of them entered in the study. Logistic regression model was used to calculate the hospital mortality odds ratio, and Cochrane-Armitage test was used for assessment of linear trend. Results: During the study period, the hospital admission for motorcycle accident was 83,648 and 89.3% (74743 of them were men. Mean age in accidents time was 26.41±14.3 years. The injuries and death sex ratio were 8.4 and 16.9, respectively. Lowest admission rate was during autumn and highest during summer. The injury mortality odds ratio was 1.01 (CI 95% 0.73-1.39 in the Spring, 1.34 (CI95% 1.01-1.79 in summer and 1.17 (CI95% 0.83-1.63. It was also calculated to be 2.51 (CI95% 1.36-4.64 in age group 40-49, 2.39 (CI95% 1.51-5.68 in 50-59 and 4.79 (CI95% 2.49-9.22 in 60-69 years. The mortality odds ratio was 3.53 (CI95% 2.77-4.5 in rural place, 1.33 (CI95% 1.15-1.54 in men, and 2.44 (CI95% 2.09-2.85 in the road out of town and village. In addition, trend of motorcycle accidents mortality was increasing (p<0.001. Conclusion: Motorcycle accidents injuries are more common in men, summer, young age and rural roads. These high risk groups need more attention, care and higher training

  4. Trends and variability in summer sea ice cover in the Canadian Arctic based on the Canadian Ice Service Digital Archive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, S.; Tivy, A. C.; Alt, B.; McCourt, S.; Chagnon, R.; Crocker, G.; Carrieres, T. G.; Yackel, J.

    2010-12-01

    The Canadian Ice Service Digital Archive (CISDA) is a compilation of weekly ice charts that cover Canadian Waters; the data set is continually updated and it extends back to the early 1960s. The ice charts are represent and integration of remotely sensed sea ice data, surface observations, airborne and ship reports, operational model results and the expertise of experience ice forecasters. Although the accuracy, type and detail of information far exceeds what is attainable from a single satellite source, errors and uncertainties in the data are non-uniform in both space and time. In part one of this study the main sources of uncertainty in the database are reviewed and the data are validated for use in climate studies. In part two, trends and variability in summer sea ice in the Canadian Arctic are investigated using CISDA. These data revealed that between 1968 and 2008, summer sea ice cover has decreased by 8.9% ± 3.1% per decade in Hudson Bay, 2.9% ± 1.2% per decade in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, 8.9% ± 3.1% per decade in Baffin Bay, and 5.2% ± 2.4% per decade in the Beaufort Sea. In general, these reductions in sea ice cover are linked to increases in early summer surface air temperature (SAT); significant increases in SAT were observed in every season and with the exception of the Hudson Bay region they are consistently greater than the pan-Arctic change by up to ~0.2oC per decade. Within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Baffin Bay, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index correlates well with multi-year ice coverage (positive correlation) and first-year ice coverage (negative correlation) suggesting that El Nino episodes precede summers with more multi-year ice and less first-year ice. Extending the trend calculations back to 1960 along the major shipping routes through the Canadian Arctic revealed significant decreases in summer sea ice coverage ranging between 11% and 15% per decade along the shipping route through Hudson Bay, the western

  5. Trends in Mortality Disparities by Area-Based Poverty in New York City, 1990-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toprani, Amita; Li, Wenhui; Hadler, James L

    2016-06-01

    Residing in a high-poverty area has consistently been associated with higher mortality rates, but the association between poverty and mortality can change over time. We examine the association between neighborhood poverty and mortality in New York City (NYC) during 1990-2010 to document mortality disparity changes over time and determine causes of death for which disparities are greatest. We used NYC and New York state mortality data for years 1990, 2000, and 2010 to calculate all-cause and cause-specific age-adjusted death rates (AADRs) by census tract poverty (CTP), which is the proportion of persons in a census tract living below the federal poverty threshold. We calculated mortality disparities, measured as the difference in AADR between the lowest and highest CTP groups, within and across race/ethnicity, nativity, and sex categories by year. We observed higher all-cause AADRs with higher CTP for each year for all race/ethnicities, both sexes, and US-born persons. Mortality disparities decreased progressively during 1990-2010 for the NYC population overall, for each race/ethnic group, and for the majority of causes of death. The overall mortality disparity between the highest and lowest CTP groups during 2010 was 2.55 deaths/1000 population. The largest contributors to mortality disparities were heart disease (51.52 deaths/100,000 population), human immunodeficiency virus (19.96/100,000 population), and diabetes (19.59/100,000 population). We show that progress was made in narrowing socioeconomic disparities in mortality during 1990-2010, but substantial disparities remain. Future efforts toward achieving health equity in NYC mortality should focus on areas contributing most to disparities.

  6. A Dynamic Travel Time Estimation Model Based on Connected Vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daxin Tian

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With advances in connected vehicle technology, dynamic vehicle route guidance models gradually become indispensable equipment for drivers. Traditional route guidance models are designed to direct a vehicle along the shortest path from the origin to the destination without considering the dynamic traffic information. In this paper a dynamic travel time estimation model is presented which can collect and distribute traffic data based on the connected vehicles. To estimate the real-time travel time more accurately, a road link dynamic dividing algorithm is proposed. The efficiency of the model is confirmed by simulations, and the experiment results prove the effectiveness of the travel time estimation method.

  7. Trends in net survival from kidney cancer in six European Latin countries: results from the SUDCAN population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangone, Lucia; Bossard, Nadine; Marcos-Gragera, Rafael; Pezzarossi, Annamaria; Roncaglia, Francesca; Giorgi Rossi, Paolo

    2017-01-01

    Kidney cancer is a frequent malignant disease. To date, there is no evidence on the effectiveness of early detection and, in most cases, surgery represents the only standard treatment. So far, there is no standardized therapy for localized and locally advanced renal tumors; however, the recent introduction of target therapy has significantly improved the prognosis of metastatic disease. Therefore, survival differences in Europe are deemed to involve differences in diagnostic and therapeutic approaches. The aim of the SUDCAN collaborative study was to compare the net survival from kidney cancer between six European Latin countries (Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland) and provide trends in net survival and dynamics of excess mortality rates up to 5 years after diagnosis. The data were extracted from the EUROCARE-5 database. First, net survival was studied over the 2000-2004 period using the Pohar-Perme estimator. For trend analysis, the study period was specific to each country. The results are reported from 1992 to 2004 in France, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland, and from 2000 to 2004 in Belgium and Portugal. These analyses were carried out using a flexible excess rate modeling strategy. In 2000-2004, the 5-year net survival ranged between 59% (Spain) and 67% (France and Italy) in men and between 60% (Spain) and 73% (Portugal) in women. There was an increase in the age-standardized net survival between 1992 and 2004 at 1 year, as well as at 5 years, in all age groups and countries. Irrespective of the year of diagnosis, the excess mortality rate decreased with time elapsed since diagnosis. There are some differences in survival from kidney cancer between European Latin countries, but a considerable improvement was observed in most countries.

  8. A Study on Coastline Extraction and Its Trend Based on Remote Sensing Image Data Mining

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, data mining theory is applied to carry out the field of the pretreatment of remote sensing images. These results show that it is an effective method for carrying out the pretreatment of low-precision remote sensing images by multisource image matching algorithm with SIFT operator, geometric correction on satellite images at scarce control points, and other techniques; the result of the coastline extracted by the edge detection method based on a chromatic aberration Canny operator has a height coincident with the actual measured result; we found that the coastline length of China is predicted to increase in the future by using the grey prediction method, with the total length reaching up to 19,471,983 m by 2015.

  9. Paraconsistent intelligent-based systems new trends in the applications of paraconsistency

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    This book presents some of the latest applications of new theories based on the concept of paraconsistency and correlated topics in informatics, such as pattern recognition (bioinformatics), robotics, decision-making themes, and sample size. Each chapter is self-contained, and an introductory chapter covering the logic theoretical basis is also included. The aim of the text is twofold: to serve as an introductory text on the theories and applications of new logic, and as a textbook for undergraduate or graduate-level courses in AI. Today AI frequently has to cope with problems of vagueness, incomplete and conflicting (inconsistent) information. One of the most notable formal theories for addressing them is paraconsistent (paracomplete and non-alethic) logic. .

  10. Biorefinery based on olive biomass. State of the art and future trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero-García, J M; Niño, L; Martínez-Patiño, C; Álvarez, C; Castro, E; Negro, M J

    2014-05-01

    With currently more than nine million hectares, olive tree cultivation has spread worldwide, table olives and olive oil as the main products. Moreover, a number of by-products and residues derived from both tree cultivation and the process of industrial olive oil production, most having no practical applications, are obtained yearly. This paper reviews the research regarding these by-products, namely biomass from olive tree pruning, olive stones, olive pomace and wastewaters obtained from the process of olive oil production. Furthermore, a wide range of compounds has been identified and can be produced using a broad definition of the term biorefinery based on olive tree biomass. As an example, this paper reviews ethanol production as one of the main proposed applications, as well as research on other value-added products. Finally, this paper also assesses recent technological advances, future perspectives and challenges in each stage of the process.

  11. Trends in research on global climate change: A Science Citation Index Expanded-based analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jinfeng; Wang, Ming-Huang; Ho, Yuh-Shan

    2011-05-01

    This study was conceived to evaluate the global scientific output of climate change research over the past 18 years and to assess the characteristics of the research patterns, tendencies, and methods in the papers. Data were based on the online version of Science Citation Index Expanded from 1992 to 2009. Articles referring to climate change were assessed by distribution of source countries, source institutes, paper titles, author keywords, KeyWords Plus, abstracts, and the most cited articles in these years. By synthetic analysis of the four kinds of keywords, it was concluded that the items "temperature", "environment", "precipitation", "greenhouse gas", "risk", and "biodiversity" will be the foci of climate change research in the 21st century, while "model", "monitoring", and "remote sensing" will continue to be the leading research methods. A novel method, "phylogeography", may have a strong application potential in the near future.

  12. Traffic Incident Clearance Time and Arrival Time Prediction Based on Hazard Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang beibei Ji

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of incident duration is not only important information of Traffic Incident Management System, but also an effective input for travel time prediction. In this paper, the hazard based prediction models are developed for both incident clearance time and arrival time. The data are obtained from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads’ STREAMS Incident Management System (SIMS for one year ending in November 2010. The best fitting distributions are drawn for both clearance and arrival time for 3 types of incident: crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard. The results show that Gamma, Log-logistic, and Weibull are the best fit for crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard incident, respectively. The obvious impact factors are given for crash clearance time and arrival time. The quantitative influences for crash and hazard incident are presented for both clearance and arrival. The model accuracy is analyzed at the end.

  13. Trends in HIV testing, prevalence among first-time testers, and incidence in most-at-risk populations in Spain: the EPI-VIH Study, 2000 to 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diez, M; Bleda, M J; Varela, J R; Ordonana, J; Azpiri, M A; Vall, M; Santos, C; Viloria, L; de Armas, C; Urena, J M; Trullen, J; Pueyo, I; Martinez, B; Puerta, T; Vera, M; Sanz, I; Junquera, M L; Landa, M C; Martinez, E; Camara, M M; Belda, J; Bru, F J; Diaz, A

    2014-11-27

    During 2000 to 2009, data on people undergoing HIV testing and on those newly diagnosed with HIV were collected in a network of 20 Spanish clinics specialising in sexually transmitted infections and/or HIV testing and counselling. The number of tests performed, overall and disaggregated by different variables, was obtained. HIV prevalence among first-time testers and HIV incidence among repeat testers were calculated. To evaluate trends, joinpoint regression models were fitted. In total, 236,939 HIV tests were performed for 165,745 individuals. Overall HIV prevalence among persons seeking HIV testing was 2.5% (95% CI: 2.4 to 2.6). Prevalence was highest in male sex workers who had sex with other men (19.0% (95% CI: 16.7 to 21.4)) and was lowest in female sex workers (0.8% (95% CI: 0.7 to 0.9)). Significant trends in prevalence were observed in men who have sex with men (MSM) (increasing) and heterosexual individuals (decreasing). The incidence analysis included 30,679 persons, 64,104 person-years (py) of follow-up and 642 seroconversions. The overall incidence rate (IR) was 1.0/100 py (95% CI: 0.9/100 to 1.1/100). Incidence was significantly higher in men and transgender females than in women (1.8/100 py (95% CI: 1.6 to 1.9), 1.2/100 py (95% CI: 0.5 to 2.8) and 0.1/100 py (95% CI: 0.09 to 0.2) respectively) and increased with age until 35–39 years. IRs in MSM and people who inject drugs were significantly greater than in heterosexual individuals (2.5/100 py (95% CI: 2.3 to 2.7), 1.6/100 py (95% CI: 1.1 to 2.2) and 0.1/100 py (95% CI: 0.09 to 0.2) respectively), and an upward trend was observed in MSM. Our results call for HIV prevention to be reinforced in MSM and transgender women in Spain.

  14. Regional changes in charcoal-burning suicide rates in East/Southeast Asia from 1995 to 2011: a time trend analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu-Sen Chang

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Suicides by carbon monoxide poisoning resulting from burning barbecue charcoal reached epidemic levels in Hong Kong and Taiwan within 5 y of the first reported cases in the early 2000s. The objectives of this analysis were to investigate (i time trends and regional patterns of charcoal-burning suicide throughout East/Southeast Asia during the time period 1995-2011 and (ii whether any rises in use of this method were associated with increases in overall suicide rates. Sex- and age-specific trends over time were also examined to identify the demographic groups showing the greatest increases in charcoal-burning suicide rates across different countries. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used data on suicides by gases other than domestic gas for Hong Kong, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore in the years 1995/1996-2011. Similar data for Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand were also extracted but were incomplete. Graphical and joinpoint regression analyses were used to examine time trends in suicide, and negative binomial regression analysis to study sex- and age-specific patterns. In 1995/1996, charcoal-burning suicides accounted for <1% of all suicides in all study countries, except in Japan (5%, but they increased to account for 13%, 24%, 10%, 7%, and 5% of all suicides in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore, respectively, in 2011. Rises were first seen in Hong Kong after 1998 (95% CI 1997-1999, followed by Singapore in 1999 (95% CI 1998-2001, Taiwan in 2000 (95% CI 1999-2001, Japan in 2002 (95% CI 1999-2003, and the Republic of Korea in 2007 (95% CI 2006-2008. No marked increases were seen in Malaysia, the Philippines, or Thailand. There was some evidence that charcoal-burning suicides were associated with an increase in overall suicide rates in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Japan (for females, but not in Japan (for males, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore. Rates of change in charcoal-burning suicide

  15. Why are you late? Investigating the role of time management in time-based prospective memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldum, Emily R; McDaniel, Mark A

    2016-08-01

    Time-based prospective memory tasks (TBPM) are those that are to be performed at a specific future time. Contrary to typical laboratory TBPM tasks (e.g., hit the Z key every 5 min), many real-world TBPM tasks require more complex time-management processes. For instance, to attend an appointment on time, one must estimate the duration of the drive to the appointment and then use this estimate to create and execute a secondary TBPM intention (e.g., "I need to start driving by 1:30 to make my 2:00 appointment on time"). Future under- and overestimates of drive time can lead to inefficient TBPM performance with the former lending to missed appointments and the latter to long stints in the waiting room. Despite the common occurrence of complex TBPM tasks in everyday life, to date, no studies have investigated how components of time management, including time estimation, affect behavior in such complex TBPM tasks. Therefore, the current study aimed to investigate timing biases in both older and younger adults and, further, to determine how such biases along with additional time management components including planning and plan fidelity influence complex TBPM performance. Results suggest for the first time that younger and older adults do not always utilize similar timing strategies, and as a result, can produce differential timing biases under the exact same environmental conditions. These timing biases, in turn, play a vital role in how efficiently both younger and older adults perform a later TBPM task that requires them to utilize their earlier time estimate. (PsycINFO Database Record

  16. [Shifting paradigm in skull base surgery: Roots, current state of the art and future trends of endonasal endoscopic approaches].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berhouma, M; Messerer, M; Jouanneau, E

    2012-02-01

    During the last two decades, endoscopic endonasal approach has completed the minimally invasive skull base surgery armamentarium. Endoscopic endonasal skull base surgery (EESBS) was initially developed in the field of pituitary adenomas, and gained an increasing place for the treatment of a wide variety of skull base pathologies, extending on the midline from crista galli process to the occipitocervical junction and laterally to the parasellar areas and petroclival apex. Until now, most studies are retrospective and lack sufficient methodological quality to confirm whether the endoscopic endonasal pituitary surgery has better results than the microsurgical trans-sphenoidal classical approach. The impressions of the expert teams show a trend toward better results for some pituitary adenomas with the endoscopic endonasal route, in terms of gross total resection rate and probably more comfortable postoperative course for the patient. Excepting intra- and suprasellar pituitary adenomas, EESBS seems useful for selected lesions extending onto the cavernous sinus and Meckel's cave but also for clival pathologies. Nevertheless, this infatuation toward endoscopic endonasal approaches has to be balanced with the critical issue of cerebrospinal fluid leaks, which constitutes actually the main limit of this approach. Through their experience and a review of the literature, the authors aim to present the state of the art of this approach as well as its limits.

  17. Using Predictions Based on Geostatistics to Monitor Trends in Aspergillus flavus Strain Composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orum, T V; Bigelow, D M; Cotty, P J; Nelson, M R

    1999-09-01

    ABSTRACT Aspergillus flavus is a soil-inhabiting fungus that frequently produces aflatoxins, potent carcinogens, in cottonseed and other seed crops. A. flavus S strain isolates, characterized on the basis of sclerotial morphology, are highly toxigenic. Spatial and temporal characteristics of the percentage of the A. flavus isolates that are S strain (S strain incidence) were used to predict patterns across areas of more than 30 km(2). Spatial autocorrelation in S strain incidence in Yuma County, AZ, was shown to extend beyond field boundaries to adjacent fields. Variograms revealed both short-range (2 to 6 km) and long-range (20 to 30 km) spatial structure in S strain incidence. S strain incidence at 36 locations sampled in July 1997 was predicted with a high correlation between expected and observed values (R = 0.85, P = 0.0001) by kriging data from July 1995 and July 1996. S strain incidence at locations sampled in October 1997 and March 1998 was markedly less than predicted by kriging data from the same months in prior years. Temporal analysis of four locations repeatedly sampled from April 1995 through July 1998 also indicated a major reduction in S strain incidence in the Texas Hill area after July 1997. Surface maps generated by kriging point data indicated a similarity in the spatial pattern of S strain incidence among all sampling dates despite temporal changes in the overall S strain incidence. Geostatistics provided useful descriptions of variability in S strain incidence over space and time.

  18. Magnitude, frequency, and trends of floods at gaged and ungaged sites in Washington, based on data through water year 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastin, Mark C.; Konrad, Christopher P.; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Tecca, Alison E.

    2016-09-20

    An investigation into the magnitude and frequency of floods in Washington State computed the annual exceedance probability (AEP) statistics for 648 U.S. Geological Survey unregulated streamgages in and near the borders of Washington using the recorded annual peak flows through water year 2014. This is an updated report from a previous report published in 1998 that used annual peak flows through the water year 1996. New in this report, a regional skew coefficient was developed for the Pacific Northwest region that includes areas in Oregon, Washington, Idaho and western Montana within the Columbia River drainage basin south of the United States-Canada border, the coastal areas of Oregon and western Washington, and watersheds draining into Puget Sound, Washington. The skew coefficient is an important term in the Log Pearson Type III equation used to define the distribution of the log-transformed annual peaks. The Expected Moments Algorithm was used to fit historical and censored peak-flow data to the log Pearson Type III distribution. A Multiple Grubb-Beck test was employed to censor low outliers of annual peak flows to improve on the frequency distribution. This investigation also includes a section on observed trends in annual peak flows that showed significant trends (p-value publication of this report. StreamStats is the interactive Web-based map tool created by the U.S. Geological Survey to allow the user to choose a streamgage and obtain published statistics or choose ungaged locations where the program automatically applies the regional regression equations and computes the estimates of the AEP statistics.

  19. Mediterranean Ocean Colour Chlorophyll Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colella, Simone; Falcini, Federico; Rinaldi, Eleonora; Sammartino, Michela; Santoleri, Rosalia

    2016-01-01

    In being at the base of the marine food web, phytoplankton is particularly important for marine ecosystem functioning (e.g., biodiversity). Strong anthropization, over-exploitation of natural resources, and climate change affect the natural amount of phytoplankton and, therefore, represent a continuous threat to the biodiversity in marine waters. In particular, a concerning risks for coastal waters is the increase in nutrient inputs of terrestrial/anthropogenic origin that can lead to undesirable modifications of phytoplankton concentration (i.e., eutrophication). Monitoring chlorophyll (Chl) concentration, which is a proxy of phytoplankton biomass, is an efficient tool for recording and understanding the response of the marine ecosystem to human pressures and thus for detecting eutrophication. Here, we compute Chl trends over the Mediterranean Sea by using satellite data, also highlighting the fact that remote sensing may represent an efficient and reliable solution to synoptically control the “good environmental status” (i.e., the Marine Directive to achieve Good Environmental Status of EU marine waters by 2020) and to assess the application of international regulations and environmental directives. Our methodology includes the use of an ad hoc regional (i.e., Mediterranean) algorithm for Chl concentration retrieval, also accounting for the difference between offshore (i.e., Case I) and coastal (i.e., Case II) waters. We apply the Mann-Kendall test and the Sens’s method for trend estimation to the Chl concentration de-seasonalized monthly time series, as obtained from the X-11 technique. We also provide a preliminary analysis of some particular trends by evaluating their associated inter-annual variability. The high spatial resolution of our approach allows a clear identification of intense trends in those coastal waters that are affected by river outflows. We do not attempt to attribute the observed trends to specific anthropogenic events. However, the

  20. A Real-time Data Model Based on Temporal Data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Xiao-fang; LIU Yun-sheng

    2006-01-01

    Real-time database systems contain not only transaction timing constraints, but also data timing constraints. This paper discusses the temporal characteristics of data in real-time databases and offers a definition of absolute and relative temporal consistency. In real-time database systems, it is often the case that the policies of transaction schedules only consider the deadline of real-time transactions, making it insufficient to ensure temporal correctness of transactions. A policy is given by considering both the deadlines of transactions and the "data deadline" to schedule real-time transactions. A real-time relational data model and a real-time relational algebra based on the characteristics of temporal data are also proposed. In this model, the temporal data has not only corresponding values, but also validity intervals corresponding to the data values. At the same time, this model is able to keep historical data values. When validity interval of a relation is[NOW,NOW], real-time relational algebra will transform to traditional relational algebra.

  1. Recent trends in carbon nanomaterial-based electrochemical sensors for biomolecules: A review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Cheng; Denno, Madelaine E.; Pyakurel, Poojan; Venton, B. Jill, E-mail: jventon@virginia.edu

    2015-08-05

    Carbon nanomaterials are advantageous for electrochemical sensors because they increase the electroactive surface area, enhance electron transfer, and promote adsorption of molecules. Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) have been incorporated into electrochemical sensors for biomolecules and strategies have included the traditional dip coating and drop casting methods, direct growth of CNTs on electrodes and the use of CNT fibers and yarns made exclusively of CNTs. Recent research has also focused on utilizing many new types of carbon nanomaterials beyond CNTs. Forms of graphene are now increasingly popular for sensors including reduced graphene oxide, carbon nanohorns, graphene nanofoams, graphene nanorods, and graphene nanoflowers. In this review, we compare different carbon nanomaterial strategies for creating electrochemical sensors for biomolecules. Analytes covered include neurotransmitters and neurochemicals, such as dopamine, ascorbic acid, and serotonin; hydrogen peroxide; proteins, such as biomarkers; and DNA. The review also addresses enzyme-based electrodes that are used to detect non-electroactive species such as glucose, alcohols, and proteins. Finally, we analyze some of the future directions for the field, pointing out gaps in fundamental understanding of electron transfer to carbon nanomaterials and the need for more practical implementation of sensors. - Highlights: • We review the types of carbon nanomaterials used in electrochemical sensors. • Different materials and sensor designs are compared for classes of biomolecules. • Future challenges of better sensor design and implementation are assessed.

  2. A coral-based reconstruction of Atlantic sea surface temperature trends and variability since 1552 (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saenger, C. P.; Cohen, A. L.; Oppo, D.; Carilli, J.; Halley, R. B.

    2009-12-01

    North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) variability can have a near global impact on climate. Observed variability has been described as a natural multidecadal (65-100 year) oscillation superimposed upon a linearly- increasing, externally-forced background warming. The multidecadal portion of this variability may be persistent, suggesting useful decadal climate predictions may soon be possible. However, our understanding of multidecadal Atlantic SST variability prior to the brief instrumental record relies almost exclusively on high latitude tree-ring proxies. No proxy SST reconstruction from the Atlantic itself has the resolution, dating accuracy and length needed to assess the behavior of multidecadal variability. We present the first absolutely dated and annually-resolved multi-centennial record of Atlantic sea surface temperature. Our 439-year coral-based reconstruction suggests western low-latitude Atlantic SSTs were nearly as warm as today from ~1552-1570 A.D., cooled by more than 1°C from ~1650-1730 A.D. and generally warmed to the present. Estimates of externally-forced background variability suggest that anthropogenic forcing can account for most of the warming since 1850 A.D. Multidecadal variations superimposed upon this background disappear prior to ~1730 A.D. in favor of interdecadal (15-20 year) variability. This suggests observed multidecadal variability is not persistent and may be difficult to predict.

  3. Recent trends in carbon nanomaterial-based electrochemical sensors for biomolecules: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Cheng; Denno, Madelaine E; Pyakurel, Poojan; Venton, B Jill

    2015-08-05

    Carbon nanomaterials are advantageous for electrochemical sensors because they increase the electroactive surface area, enhance electron transfer, and promote adsorption of molecules. Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) have been incorporated into electrochemical sensors for biomolecules and strategies have included the traditional dip coating and drop casting methods, direct growth of CNTs on electrodes and the use of CNT fibers and yarns made exclusively of CNTs. Recent research has also focused on utilizing many new types of carbon nanomaterials beyond CNTs. Forms of graphene are now increasingly popular for sensors including reduced graphene oxide, carbon nanohorns, graphene nanofoams, graphene nanorods, and graphene nanoflowers. In this review, we compare different carbon nanomaterial strategies for creating electrochemical sensors for biomolecules. Analytes covered include neurotransmitters and neurochemicals, such as dopamine, ascorbic acid, and serotonin; hydrogen peroxide; proteins, such as biomarkers; and DNA. The review also addresses enzyme-based electrodes that are used to detect non-electroactive species such as glucose, alcohols, and proteins. Finally, we analyze some of the future directions for the field, pointing out gaps in fundamental understanding of electron transfer to carbon nanomaterials and the need for more practical implementation of sensors.

  4. Time-frequency representation measurement based on temporal Fourier transformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suen, Yifan; Xiao, Shaoqiu; Hao, Sumin; Zhao, Xiaoxiang; Xiong, Yigao; Liu, Shenye

    2016-10-01

    We propose a new scheme to physically realize the short-time Fourier transform (STFT) of chirped optical pulse using time-lens array that enables us to get time-frequency representation without using FFT algorithm. The time-lens based upon the four-wave mixing is used to perform the process of temporal Fourier transformation. Pump pulse is used for both providing the quadratic phase and being the window function of STFT. The idea of STFT is physically realized in our scheme. Simulations have been done to investigate performance of the time-frequency representation scheme (TFRS) in comparison with STFT using FFT algorithm. Optimal measurement of resolution in time and frequency has been discussed.

  5. Verification measurements of the Karoo Array timing system: a laser radar based time transfer system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siebrits, R.; Bauermeister, E.; Gamatham, R.; Adams, G.; Malan, J. A.; Burger, J. P.; Kapp, F.; Gibbon, T.; Kriel, H.; Abbott, T.

    2016-02-01

    An optical fiber based laser radar time transfer system has been developed for the 64-dish MeerKAT radiointerferometer telescope project to provide accurate atomic time to the receivers of the telescope system. This time transfer system is called the Karoo Array Timing System (KATS). Calibration of the time transfer system is essential to ensure that time is accurately transferred to the digitisers that form part of the receivers. Frequency domain reflectometry via vector network analysers is also used to verify measurements taken using time interval counters. This paper details the progress that is made in the verification measurements of the system in order to ensure that time, accurate to within a few nanoseconds of the Universal Coordinated Time (UTC, is available at the point where radio signals from astronomical sources are received. This capability enables world class transient and timing studies with a compact radio interferometer, which has inherent advantages over large single dish radio-telescopes, in observing the transient sky.

  6. Trends in diet quality among adolescents, adults and older adults: A population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samantha Caesar de Andrade, PhD

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to monitor diet quality and associated factors in adolescents, adults and older adults from the city of São Paulo, Brazil. We conducted a cross-sectional population-based study involving 2376 individuals surveyed in 2003, and 1662 individuals in 2008 (Health Survey of São Paulo, ISA-Capital. Participants were of both sexes and aged 12 to 19 years old (adolescents, 20 to 59 years old (adults and 60 years old or over (older adults. Food intake was assessed using the 24-h dietary recall method while diet quality was determined by the Brazilian Healthy Eating Index (BHEI-R. The prevalence of descriptive variables for 2003 and 2008 was compared adopting a confidence interval of 95%. The means of total BHEI-R score and its components for 2003 and 2008 were compared for each age group. Associations between the BHEI-R and independent variables were evaluated for each survey year using multiple linear regression analysis. Results showed that the mean BHEI-R increased (54.9 vs. 56.4 points over the five-year period. However, the age group evaluation showed a deterioration in diet quality of adolescents, influenced by a decrease in scores for dark-green and orange vegetables and legumes, total grains, oils and SoFAAS (solid fat, alcohol and added sugar components. In the 2008 survey, adults had a higher BHEI-R score, by 6.1 points on average, compared to adolescents. Compared to older adults, this difference was 10.7 points. The diet quality remains a concern, especially among adolescents, that had the worst results compared to the other age groups.

  7. 8-year trends in physical activity, nutrition, TV viewing time, smoking, alcohol and BMI: A comparison of younger and older Queensland adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, Mitch J.; Schoeppe, Stephanie; Rebar, Amanda L.; Vandelanotte, Corneel

    2017-01-01

    Lifestyle behaviours significantly contribute to high levels of chronic disease in older adults. The aims of the study were to compare the prevalence and the prevalence trends of health behaviours (physical activity, fruit and vegetable consumption, fast food consumption, TV viewing, smoking and alcohol consumption), BMI and a summary health behaviour indicator score in older (65+ years) versus younger adults (18–65 years). The self-report outcomes were assessed through the Queensland Social Survey annually between 2007–2014 (n = 12,552). Regression analyses were conducted to compare the proportion of older versus younger adults engaging in health behaviours and of healthy weight in all years combined and examine trends in the proportion of younger and older adults engaging in health behaviours and of healthy weight over time. Older adults were more likely to meet recommended intakes of fruit and vegetable (OR = 1.43, 95%CI = 1.23–1.67), not consume fast food (OR = 2.54, 95%CI = 2.25–2.86) and be non-smokers (OR = 3.02, 95%CI = 2.53–3.60) in comparison to younger adults. Conversely, older adults were less likely to meet the physical activity recommendations (OR = 0.86, 95%CI = 0.78–0.95) and watch less than 14 hours of TV per week (OR = 0.65, 95%CI = 0.58–0.74). Overall, older adults were more likely to report engaging in 3, or at least 4 out of 5 healthy behaviours. The proportion of both older and younger adults meeting the physical activity recommendations (OR = 0.97, 95%CI = 0.95–0.98 and OR = 0.94, 95%CI = 0.91–0.97 respectively), watching less than 14 hours of TV per week (OR = 0.96, 95%CI = 0.94–0.99 and OR = 0.94, 95%CI = 0.90–0.99 respectively) and who were a healthy weight (OR = 0.95, 95%CI = 0.92–0.99 and OR = 0.96, 95%CI = 0.94–0.98 respectively) decreased over time. The proportion of older adults meeting the fruit and vegetable recommendations (OR = 0.90, 95%CI = 0.84–0.96) and not consuming fast food (OR = 0.94, 95%CI = 0

  8. Transformer real-time reliability model based on operating conditions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HE Jian; CHENG Lin; SUN Yuan-zhang

    2007-01-01

    Operational reliability evaluation theory reflects real-time reliability level of power system. The component failure rate varies with operating conditions. The impact of real-time operating conditions such as ambient temperature and transformer MVA (megavolt-ampere) loading on transformer insulation life is studied in this paper. The formula of transformer failure rate based on the winding hottest-spot temperature (HST) is given. Thus the real-time reliability model of transformer based on operating conditions is presented. The work is illustrated using the 1979 IEEE Reliability Test System. The changes of operating conditions are simulated by using hourly load curve and temperature curve, so the curves of real-time reliability indices are obtained by using operational reliability evaluation.

  9. Is CT-based perfusion and collateral imaging sensitive to time since stroke onset?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smriti eAgarwal

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract PurposeCT-based perfusion and collateral imaging is increasingly used in the assessment of patients with acute stroke. Time of stroke onset is a critical factor in determining eligibility for and benefit from thrombolysis. Animal studies predict that the volume of ischemic penumbra decreases with time. Here we evaluate if CT is able to detect a relationship between perfusion or collateral status, as assessed by CT and time since stroke onset.Materials and MethodsWe studied fifty-three consecutive patients with proximal vessel occlusions, mean (SD age of 71.3 (14.9 years at a mean (SD of 125.2 (55.3 minutes from onset, using whole-brain CT perfusion (CTp imaging. Penumbra was defined using voxel-based thresholds for cerebral blood flow (CBF and mean transit time (MTT; core was defined by cerebral blood volume (CBV. Normalized penumbra fraction was calculated as Penumbra volume /(Penumbra volume +Core volume for both CBF and MTT (PenCBF and PenMTT, respectively. Collaterals were assessed on CT angiography (CTA. CTp ASPECTS score was applied visually, lower scores indicating larger lesions. ASPECTS ratios were calculated corresponding to penumbra fractions.ResultsBoth PenCBF and PenMTT showed decremental trends with increasing time since onset (Kendall’s tau-b=-0.196, p=0.055, and -0.187, p=0.068, respectively. The CBF/CBV ASPECTS ratio, which showed a relationship to PenCBF (Kendall’s tau-b=0.190, p=0.070, decreased with increasing time since onset (Kendall’s tau-b=-0.265, p=0.006. Collateral response did not relate to time (Kendall’s tau-b=-0.039, p=0.724.ConclusionEven within 4.5hrs since stroke onset, a decremental relationship between penumbra and time, but not between collateral status and time, may be detected using perfusion CT imaging. The trends that we demonstrate merit evaluation in larger datasets to confirm our results, which may have potential wider applications e.g. in the setting of strokes of unknown onset time.

  10. ESTIMATING RELIABILITY OF DISTURBANCES IN SATELLITE TIME SERIES DATA BASED ON STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z.-G. Zhou

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Normally, the status of land cover is inherently dynamic and changing continuously on temporal scale. However, disturbances or abnormal changes of land cover — caused by such as forest fire, flood, deforestation, and plant diseases — occur worldwide at unknown times and locations. Timely detection and characterization of these disturbances is of importance for land cover monitoring. Recently, many time-series-analysis methods have been developed for near real-time or online disturbance detection, using satellite image time series. However, the detection results were only labelled with “Change/ No change” by most of the present methods, while few methods focus on estimating reliability (or confidence level of the detected disturbances in image time series. To this end, this paper propose a statistical analysis method for estimating reliability of disturbances in new available remote sensing image time series, through analysis of full temporal information laid in time series data. The method consists of three main steps. (1 Segmenting and modelling of historical time series data based on Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST. (2 Forecasting and detecting disturbances in new time series data. (3 Estimating reliability of each detected disturbance using statistical analysis based on Confidence Interval (CI and Confidence Levels (CL. The method was validated by estimating reliability of disturbance regions caused by a recent severe flooding occurred around the border of Russia and China. Results demonstrated that the method can estimate reliability of disturbances detected in satellite image with estimation error less than 5% and overall accuracy up to 90%.

  11. Population-level impact of osteoporotic fractures on mortality and trends over time: a nationwide analysis of vital statistics for France, 1968-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziadé, Nelly; Jougla, Eric; Coste, Joël

    2010-10-15

    Osteoporotic fractures are one of the leading causes of death in the elderly population, but mortality may have been reduced by the advances in management and prevention during recent decades. The authors analyzed the population-level impact of these fractures on mortality in France from 1968 to 2004. About 20 million death certificates registered in metropolitan France from 1968 to 2004 were analyzed. Osteoporotic fractures were identified by using a previously developed methodology. Age-specific and standardized mortality rates were calculated by site of fracture and sex, and time trends were evaluated. Associated causes of death were compared between the extreme periods of the study by the observed/expected pairs method; 440,890 (2.2%) death certificates reported an osteoporotic fracture. Osteoporotic fractures overall, particularly hip and skull fractures, declined by half during the study period, exceeding the decline in general mortality and resulting in fracture-deceased subjects being older. However, pelvis, vertebral, and rib fractures became more frequent. Associated causes of death increased with time, except for decubitus ulcers, indicating a change in the pattern of the death process. Despite a 50% decline, osteoporotic fractures still have a significant impact on mortality. The pattern of the death process has changed, with an increased role for comorbidities.

  12. Data-based controllability analysis of discrete-time linear time-delay systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang; Chen, Hong-Wei; Lu, Jian-Quan

    2014-11-01

    In this paper, a data-based method is used to analyse the controllability of discrete-time linear time-delay systems. By this method, one can directly construct