WorldWideScience

Sample records for based threat evaluation

  1. How Ego-threats Facilitate Contracts Based on Subjective Evaluations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sebald, Alexander; Walzl, Markus

    We show that individuals' desire to protect their self-esteem against ego-threatening feedback can mitigate moral hazard in environments with purely subjective performance evaluations. In line with evidence from social psychology we assume that agents' react aggressively to evaluations by the pri......We show that individuals' desire to protect their self-esteem against ego-threatening feedback can mitigate moral hazard in environments with purely subjective performance evaluations. In line with evidence from social psychology we assume that agents' react aggressively to evaluations...... by the principal which do not coincide with their own positive self-perceptions and thereby generate costs of conflict for the principal. We identify conditions for a positive welfare effect of increasing costs of conflict or increasing sensitivity to ego-threats, and a negative welfare effect of a more...

  2. How Ego-threats Facilitate Contracts Based on Subjective Evaluations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sebald, Alexander; Walzl, Markus

    We show that individuals' desire to protect their self-esteem against ego-threatening feedback can mitigate moral hazard in environments with purely subjective performance evaluations. In line with evidence from social psychology we assume that agents' react aggressively to evaluations...

  3. Real-time threat evaluation in a ground based air defence environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JN Roux

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In a military environment a ground based air defence operator is required to evaluate the tactical situation in real-time and protect Defended Assets (DAs on the ground against aerial threats by assigning available Weapon Systems (WSs to engage enemy aircraft. Since this aerial environment requires rapid operational planning and decision making in stress situations, the associated responsibilities are typically divided between a number of operators and computerized systems that aid these operators during the decision making processes. One such a Decision Support System (DSS, a threat evaluation and weapon assignment system, assigns threat values to aircraft (with respect to DAs in real-time and uses these values to propose possible engagements of observed enemy aircraft by anti-aircraft WSs. In this paper a design of the threat evaluation part of such a DSS is put forward. The design follows the structured approach suggested in [Roux JN & van Vuuren JH, 2007, Threat evaluation and weapon assignment decision support: A review of the state of the art, ORiON, 23(2, pp. 151-187], phasing in a suite of increasingly complex qualitative and quantitative model components as more (reliable data become available.

  4. Threat Modeling-Oriented Attack Path Evaluating Algorithm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xiaohong; LIU Ran; FENG Zhiyong; HE Ke

    2009-01-01

    In order to evaluate all attack paths in a threat tree,based on threat modeling theory,a weight distribution algorithm of the root node in a threat tree is designed,which computes threat coefficients of leaf nodes in two ways including threat occurring possibility and the degree of damage.Besides,an algorithm of searching attack path was also obtained in accordence with its definition.Finally,an attack path evaluation system was implemented which can output the threat coefficients of the leaf nodes in a target threat tree,the weight distribution information,and the attack paths.An example threat tree is given to verify the effectiveness of the algorithms.

  5. A Novel Two-Staged Decision Support based Threat Evaluation and Weapon Assignment Algorithm, Asset-based Dynamic Weapon Scheduling using Artificial Intelligence Techinques

    CERN Document Server

    Naeem, Huma; Hussain, Mukhtar; Khan, Shoab A

    2009-01-01

    Surveillance control and reporting (SCR) system for air threats play an important role in the defense of a country. SCR system corresponds to air and ground situation management/processing along with information fusion, communication, coordination, simulation and other critical defense oriented tasks. Threat Evaluation and Weapon Assignment (TEWA) sits at the core of SCR system. In such a system, maximal or near maximal utilization of constrained resources is of extreme importance. Manual TEWA systems cannot provide optimality because of different limitations e.g.surface to air missile (SAM) can fire from a distance of 5Km, but manual TEWA systems are constrained by human vision range and other constraints. Current TEWA systems usually work on target-by-target basis using some type of greedy algorithm thus affecting the optimality of the solution and failing in multi-target scenario. his paper relates to a novel two-staged flexible dynamic decision support based optimal threat evaluation and weapon assignment...

  6. A Novel Two-Staged Decision Support based Threat Evaluation and Weapon Assignment Algorithm, Asset-based Dynamic Weapon Scheduling using Artificial Intelligence Techinques

    OpenAIRE

    Naeem, Huma; Masood, Asif; Hussain, Mukhtar; Shoab A. Khan

    2009-01-01

    Surveillance control and reporting (SCR) system for air threats play an important role in the defense of a country. SCR system corresponds to air and ground situation management/processing along with information fusion, communication, coordination, simulation and other critical defense oriented tasks. Threat Evaluation and Weapon Assignment (TEWA) sits at the core of SCR system. In such a system, maximal or near maximal utilization of constrained resources is of extreme importance. Manual TEW...

  7. Deployment Forecast of Bistatic Receive Station Based on Threat Evaluation%基于威胁评估的双基地R站配置预测

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙云辉; 陈永光; 汪亚夫; 吕栋雷

    2011-01-01

    Because the position of receive station is unknown, the jamming efficiency that the traditional jamming measures against bistatic radar is dissatisfactory. If the position of receive station is forecasted and estimated, the threat degree of bistatic radar will be reduced when the penetrating route of attacker is ascertained. So a deployment forecast method of receive station of bistatic radar based on threat evaluation is put forward. The method bases on a precondition that where the higher threat degree of receive station is, where the more possible the receiver is. The threat evaluation model is studied in the condition of decided penetrating route. The simulation method of deployment forecast region is given. The simulation results can work for electronic jamming decision.%双基地R站未知,传统的干扰手段很难对其取得理想的干扰效果.如果进攻方能够基于自身突防航线对R站配置位置作出大致预测和估计,进而实施针对性干扰,将可大大降低来自双基地系统的探测、定位与跟踪威胁.基于上述考虑,提出了一种基于威胁评估的双基地R站配置预测方法.该方法基于“R站对突防航段的威胁越大,则雷达方在该处作实际配置部署的可能性就越大”.这一前提和假设,研究了已知航线条件下的R站威胁评估模型,给出了配置预测区域的仿真绘制方法,仿真结果可为电子干扰决策提供依据.

  8. A Hierarchical Evaluation Approach for Network Security Based on Threat Spread Model%基于威胁传播模型的层次化网络安全评估方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈锋; 刘德辉; 张怡; 苏金树

    2011-01-01

    Network system is generally faced with invasion of the external and internal threat agents.Moreover, threat agents have the capability of spreading threats via the interrelation among vulnerabilities and components in the network, bringing about potential threats.Designing a reasonable model to identify, analyze and quantitatively measure the consequences resulting from potential threats is one of the main challenges that the research of network security evaluation faces.For this issue, a hierarchical evaluation approach based on the threat spread model for the network security is proposed.Firstly the threat spread model is put forward to identify the threat agents,analyze the spread paths of threats, and predict potential threats.The threat spread model includes target network model, threat agent model, threat spread graphs and threat spread algorithm.On this basis, the security measure model is presented to compute the danger indexes of services, hosts and network system respectively.The security measure model is composed of spread graphs, metrics,metric computing functions and index computing functions.Based on the novel approach, the prototype system is implemented and applied by an enterprise local network system.The result demonstrates the correctness of the threat spread model and the advantage of the approach compared with traditional methods.%网络系统不仅面临外部和内部威胁主体的入侵,同时威胁主体会利用脆弱点间、网络组件间的相互作用关系进行威胁传播,产生严重的潜在威胁.设计合理的模型对潜在威胁进行识别、分析,并量化测度其对网络安全的影响,是当前网络安全评估所面临的主要挑战之一.针对该问题,提出了一种基于威胁传播模型的层次化网络安全评估方法.首先提出了威胁传播模型识别目标网络系统的威胁主体,分析其传播路径,预测其对网络系统的潜在破坏;在此基础上提出了层次化网络安全测度

  9. Evaluation Method of Radar Emitter Threat Based on Fuzzy MAGDM%基于模糊多属性群组决策的雷达辐射源威胁评估方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    姚成才; 苏同领

    2012-01-01

    It’s an important task for intelligence analysis to evaluate the threat of radar emitter in air defence combat.This paper sets up the evaluation model of radar emitter threat,presents an evaluation method of radar emitter threat based on fuzzy multi-attribute group decision-making(MAGDM),and validates the validity of the method through a practical example,which provides a new approach for evaluating the radar emitter threat.%在防空作战中,对雷达辐射源威胁进行评估,是情报分析的一项重要任务。建立了雷达辐射源威胁评估模型,提出了一种基于模糊多属性群组决策的雷达辐射源威胁评估方法,并通过实例验证了该方法的有效性,为雷达辐射源威胁评估提供了一种新的方法。

  10. A Threat Evaluation Method Based on Information Value for Battlefield Netwar Attack%信息价值的战场网络战攻击威胁评估方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈政; 李玉东; 孔捷; 杨艳萍

    2011-01-01

    Information value of C4ISR network is evaluated quantificationally by constructing colligation evaluation model of information value. Then the quantity of threat can be represented in the model of information value evaluation, based on the attack behavior analysis in battlefield netwar. And the variety of information value in network attacked can weigh the degree of netwar attack threat. Thereby a threat evaluation method for netwar attack is provided.%通过构建信息价值综合评估模型,对C4ISR网络信息价值程度进行定量评估.然后对战场网络战攻击行为进行分析,将其攻击威胁量化到信息价值评估模型,通过被攻击网络信息价值的变化来衡量网络战攻击的威胁程度,从而提供了一种网络战攻击威胁的评估方法.

  11. Interpersonal motives and social-evaluative threat: Effects of acceptance and status stressors on cardiovascular reactivity and salivary cortisol response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Timothy W; Jordan, Kevin D

    2015-02-01

    Social-evaluative threat evokes increases in salivary cortisol and heightened cardiovascular reactivity. However, the types or content of social threats underlying these physiological responses are not clearly delineated in direct comparisons. Based in interpersonal theory, the present study manipulated high and low levels of acceptance threat (i.e., evaluation of likability, potential for inclusion) and status threat (i.e., evaluation of competence, leadership potential) during a modified Trier Social Stress Test, using a sample of 137 undergraduates (73 women). Both acceptance threat and status threat heightened salivary cortisol, heart rate, and blood pressure responses to the task. Hence, concerns about social inclusion or connection with others and concerns about social standing or status can contribute independently to physiological stress responses.

  12. UAV On-line Path Re-planning Based on Threats Evaluation Improved Algorithm%基于改进威胁代价的无人机路径在线重规划

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高晓光; 魏小丰; 郑景嵩

    2012-01-01

    针对路径在线重规划中的威胁代价评估问题,提出了基于最大综合拦截概率的在线威胁代价评估改进算法.在该算法中,以已有威胁代价评估模型为基础,给出不同信息支持条件下的“瞬时跟踪概率”计算模块,进而引入“连续跟踪概率”概念,并结合“杀伤概率”得到“拦截概率”概念模块.在此基础上,提出“最大拦截概率”概念,以此作为单个主动威胁作用下的在线威胁代价评估标准,最后将其拓展到“最大综合拦截概率”作为多个主动威胁作用下的在线威胁代价评估标准.在此基础上,结合MPC算法给出路径在线重规划的模型.通过仿真结果对比,说明上述模型的合理性和算法的有效性.%An improved threats evaluation algorithm is proposed for the on-line path re-planning of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). Based on the existing threat evaluation model, instantaneous radar tracking probability computation modules on condition of different information is given to calculate the continuous radar tracking probability. Kill probability on condition of continuous radar tracking is proposed. As a result, interception probability and maximum interception probability are figured out to provide an evaluation criterion for a single threat, while the maximum integrated interception probability is consider as the criterion for multiple threats-Based on the threats evaluation improved algorithm, Model Predictive Control (MPC) is adopted to implement the on-line path planning. Simulation results have shown that the model is more intelligent and the approach is more effective in path re-planning.

  13. Risk Evaluation of Complex Information System Based on Threat Propagation Sampling%基于威胁传播采样的复杂信息系统风险评估

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马刚; 杜宇鸽; 安波; 张博; 王伟; 史忠植

    2015-01-01

    互联网时代的信息安全已成为全社会关注的问题之一。信息系统是信息的载体,为有效评估大规模分布式复杂信息系统的风险,构建了一种基于威胁传播采样的复杂信息系统风险评估方法。该方法考虑到威胁在复杂信息系统中传播时,对资产结点的转移状态以及资产结点发出的威胁传播边进行采样来生成威胁传播树(threat propagation trees ,TPT ),然后通过计算威胁传播树中各资产结点的期望损失以及威胁传播树的概率来对整个复杂信息系统进行风险评估。实验分析表明,基于威胁传播采样的复杂信息系统风险评估方法,在生成威胁传播树时具有高效的时间效率,能够对复杂信息系统进行客观准确的风险评估,且在对复杂信息系统资产结点制定安全防护策略时,能够为安全风险管理者提供较为合理的安全指导建议。%Information security has been one of the focuses of social concern in the age of Internet . There is no doubt that accurately assessing the security of information medium is becoming the focus of the present information security work .For evaluating the risk of the large‐scale distributed complex information system ,we propose a risk evaluation method of the complex information system based on threat propagation sampling .Firstly ,when the threats propagate in the complex information system , the number of threat propagation trees (TPT ) is reduced by sampling the transition states of the asset nodes and the threat propagation edges emitted by the asset nodes ,then computing the expected value loss of each node in the threat propagation tree and the probability of each threat propagation tree to evaluate the risk of the complex information system .The experimental analysis not only shows the risk evaluation proposed in this paper has higher time‐efficient compared with the traditional combined strategy when producing the

  14. The hardy personality: cognitive and physiological responses to evaluative threat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allred, K D; Smith, T W

    1989-02-01

    Hardy persons are hypothesized to be resistant to stress-induced illness, because of their adaptive cognitive style and a subsequently reduced level of physiological arousal. We assessed the cognitive and physiological responses of high and low hardy male undergraduates to a challenging task under high and low evaluative threat. As predicted, hardy subjects endorsed more positive self-statements than did low hardy subjects in the high threat condition. High hardy subjects also reported fewer negative self-statements overall, but this was attributable to the overlap of measures of hardiness and neuroticism. Hardy subjects displayed marginally lower arousal while waiting for the task to begin, but this finding did not approach significance when neuroticism was controlled. Hardy subjects also had higher levels of systolic blood pressure, perhaps because of their active coping efforts. Results support the hypothesized hardy cognitive style but raise questions about the type and timing of organismic strain linking hardiness and health.

  15. Puerto Rico Land-Based Threat to Benthic Habitats

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set describes the potential threat of sediment delivery and land-based sources of pollution to benthic habitats. This dataset is derived from NOAA's...

  16. Puerto Rico Land-Based Threat to Benthic Habitats

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set describes the potential threat of sediment delivery and land-based sources of pollution to benthic habitats. This dataset is derived from NOAA's study,...

  17. USVI Land-Based Threat to Benthic Habitats

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set describes the potential threat of sediment delivery and land-based sources of pollution to benthic habitats. This dataset is derived from NOAA's...

  18. Threat Evaluation of Air Targets to Ships in the Air Defense Based on Improved Cloud Model%基于改良云模型的舰艇防空威胁评估

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    季傲; 姜礼平; 吴强

    2016-01-01

    为了解决现有威胁评估模型存在不足,快速准确地对来袭空中目标进行威胁排序,提出了一种基于改良云模型的评估方法。针对舰艇防空作战目标特点,选取作战指标进行量化,对不同的定量指标和定性指标,分别采用离差最大化和改良云模型进行处理和赋权,通过Hamming距离计算贴近度,最后进行威胁综合排序。实例验证表明:该方法可以有效避免传统方法中人为确定各威胁指标权重的主观性,同时对定性指标的有效处理提高了评估准确性,为舰艇防空作战威胁评估提供了一条有效途径。%In order to solve the existing problems of threat assessment model,for fast and accurate threat sorting of incoming air target,an improved evaluation method based on cloud model is proposed. According to the target ship air defense operation characteristics,select operation target are quantified for different quantitative index and qualitative index,respectively uses the maximum deviation and improvement of cloud models to handle the empowerment,then the Hamming distance calculation of the degree of closeness of threat sequencing. The example showed that: this method can effectively avoid man-made determine the weight of each index of the threat of subjectivity in the traditional method, and the effective treatment of qualitative indicators to improve evaluation accuracy,an effective way for the ship air defense threat assessment is provided.

  19. 基于概率神经网络的编队协同防空威胁评估%Threat Evaluation of Formation Cooperative Air Defense Based on Probabilistic Neural Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    董奎义; 杨根源; 王子明

    2011-01-01

    为了有效地进行防空作战部署,确保重点目标不受或少受损失,以防空作战实际需要为出发点,针对目前多平台协同防空作战中目标威胁评估问题普遍存在的不足,从舰艇编队的整体角度出发,运用概率神经网络的方法,建立了编队协同防空目标威胁评估问题的数学模型,给指挥员提供了正确决策.通过实例验证,证明了该模型的有效性和正确性.%To hold effectively the deployment of air defense operation and insure impunity of important targets or avoid losses, with actual needs of air defense operation as a starting point, based on the shortages of current targets threat evaluation in corporative air defense operation of multiple platforms, probabilistic neural network method is applied to built the mathematic model of formation cooperative air defense targets threat evaluation problem from the view point of the whole information, which provides accurate decision for commander . The usefulness and the accuracy of the model are proved by the example.

  20. Threat Assessment of Targets Based on Support Vector Machine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CAI Huai-ping; LIU Jing-xu; CHEN Ying-wu

    2006-01-01

    In the context of cooperative engagement of armored vehicles, the threat factors of offensive targets are analyzed, and a threat assessment (TA) model is built based on a support v.ector machine (SVM) method. The SVM-based model has some advantages over the traditional method-based models: the complex factors of threat are considered in the cooperative engagement; the shortcomings of neural networks, such as local minimum and "over fitting", are overcome to improve the generalization ability; its operation speed is high and meets the needs of real time C2 of cooperative engagement; the assessment results could be more reasonable because of its self-learning capability. The analysis and simulation indicate that the SVM method is an effective method to resolve the TA problems.

  1. 基于分层贝叶斯网络的反潜编队对潜威胁估计%Method for Evaluate Threat of Anti-submarine War Fleet to Submarine Based on Hierarchical Bayesian Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王小龙; 宋裕农; 丁文强

    2014-01-01

    应用贝叶斯网络模型进行威胁估计是当前研究的热点和难点。提出了应用分层贝叶斯网络模型构建威胁估计网络,用于估计反潜编队对潜威胁等级。首先,对分层贝叶斯网络模型进行了简要的阐述,并对利用该模型进行威胁估计的可行性进行了分析。其次,分析了反潜编队对潜威胁产生的原因和机理,在此基础上,构建了威胁估计网络。最后,通过算例仿真验证了威胁估计网络的有效性。%Usage of bayesian network for threat evaluation is a hot and difficult problem. The threat evaluation network is constructed by the method of the bayesian network,which uses for evaluating the threat level of the anti-submarine war fleet. First,the principle of the bayesian network is constructed,and the feasibility of using bayesian network is analyzed for threat evaluation. Second, the causes and mechanism of the anti-submarine fleet submarine threat is analyzed,on this basis,the threat evaluation network is constructed. Finally,simulation experiment is used to verify the validity of the threat evaluation network constructed.

  2. Model Based Analysis of Insider Threats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Taolue; Han, Tingting; Kammueller, Florian

    2016-01-01

    In order to detect malicious insider attacks it is important to model and analyse infrastructures and policies of organisations and the insiders acting within them. We extend formal approaches that allow modelling such scenarios by quantitative aspects to enable a precise analysis of security...... designs. Our framework enables evaluating the risks of an insider attack to happen quantitatively. The framework first identifies an insider's intention to perform an inside attack, using Bayesian networks, and in a second phase computes the probability of success for an inside attack by this actor, using...... probabilistic model checking. We provide prototype tool support using Matlab for Bayesian networks and PRISM for the analysis of Markov decision processes, and validate the framework with case studies....

  3. Threat evaluation and weapon assignment decision support: A review of the state of the art

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JN Roux

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available In a military environment an operator is typically required to evaluate the tactical situation in real-time and protect defended assets against enemy threats by assigning available weapon systems to engage enemy craft. This environment requires rapid operational planning and decision making under severe stress conditions, and the associated responsibilities are usually divided between a number of operators and computerized decision support systems that aid these operators during the decision making processes. The aim in this paper is to review the state of the art of this kind of threat evaluation and weapon assignment decision support process as it stands within the context of a ground based air defence system (GBADS at the turn of the twenty first century. However, much of the contents of the paper may be generalized to military environments other than a GBADS one.

  4. 基于熵与TOPSIS法的空中目标威胁判断%Research on Aerial Targets Threat Evaluation Based on Entropy and TOPSIS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王光源; 马海洋; 庞文强

    2011-01-01

    For all attribute weights and values were interval numbers, through the objective of minimizing the total deviation between the alternatives and ideal object, maximizing the total deviation between the alternatives and negative ideal object, and maximizing the entropy of weights of each coefficient, the optimal solution was the best index weight coefficients, which was solved by Lagrange multiple method. Based on four different distance measure between interval numbers, the evaluating model for optimization of targets was established by applying TOPSIS rule. Lastly, the example was illustrated to compare the ranking effects by different measure. The result proved the definition of HaiMing holds the best reliability.%针对舰艇对空防御空中目标威胁判断指标属性权重与属性值均为区间数的情况,通过以各方案与理想方案偏差最小、与负理想方案偏差最大,以及权系数熵的最大化为优化目标,用拉格朗口乘子法给出模型的最优解,得到指标的权重值;基于区间数的4种不同的距离度量方式,建立基于TOPSIS法的威胁判断模型;通过实例对比在不同距离度量下的排序效果,结论表明采用海明距离的排序结果可信性最高.

  5. Approach of Goal-Oriented Attack Graph-Based Threat Evaluation for Network Security%一种基于目标攻击图的态势威胁评估方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘威歆; 郑康锋; 胡影; 武斌

    2015-01-01

    针对传统安全威胁评估方法难以理解攻击渗透的相关性,且难以量化相关渗透对于网络环境的影响问题,结合攻击图渗透动作危害性、渗透相关性和主机业务重要性,提出双向威胁评估模型和计算方法,能衡量攻击的深入程度和对目标的威胁程度,最后提出了一个能应用于实时告警分析的攻击序列评估方法,并通过实验验证了所提模型的合理性和有效性。%For being not falling in as final targets of attackers, the critical resources in network environ-ments should be protected. It is vital to quantify the threat and impact during the process of multi-stage attacks. Aiming at combine threat quantification of individual attack action and significance value of hosts, as well as large amount of attack dependencies in attack graphs, a methodology for threat evalua-tion was proposed. The bi-directional threat evaluation presented in this article is able to compute pro-gress attackers already, as well as the threat to goal-resources in attack graph, which can be well applied to real-time attack threat evaluation. The proposed was finally verified in experiment and simulation.

  6. Overview of Threats and Failure Models for Safety-Relevant Computer-Based Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

    2015-01-01

    This document presents a high-level overview of the threats to safety-relevant computer-based systems, including (1) a description of the introduction and activation of physical and logical faults; (2) the propagation of their effects; and (3) function-level and component-level error and failure mode models. These models can be used in the definition of fault hypotheses (i.e., assumptions) for threat-risk mitigation strategies. This document is a contribution to a guide currently under development that is intended to provide a general technical foundation for designers and evaluators of safety-relevant systems.

  7. Evaluating Threats in Multinational Marine Ecosystems: A Coast Salish First Nations and Tribal Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaydos, Joseph K; Thixton, Sofie; Donatuto, Jamie

    2015-01-01

    Despite the merit of managing natural resources on the scale of ecosystems, evaluating threats and managing risk in ecosystems that span multiple countries or jurisdictions can be challenging. This requires each government involved to consider actions in concert with actions being taken in other countries by co-managing entities. Multiple proposed fossil fuel-related and port development projects in the Salish Sea, a 16,925 km2 inland sea shared by Washington State (USA), British Columbia (Canada), and Indigenous Coast Salish governments, have the potential to increase marine vessel traffic and negatively impact natural resources. There is no legal mandate or management mechanism requiring a comprehensive review of the potential cumulative impacts of these development activities throughout the Salish Sea and across the international border. This project identifies ongoing and proposed energy-related development projects that will increase marine vessel traffic in the Salish Sea and evaluates the threats each project poses to natural resources important to the Coast Salish. While recognizing that Coast Salish traditions identify all species as important and connected, we used expert elicitation to identify 50 species upon which we could evaluate impact. These species were chosen because Coast Salish depend upon them heavily for harvest revenue or as a staple food source, they were particularly culturally or spiritually significant, or they were historically part of Coast Salish lifeways. We identified six development projects, each of which had three potential impacts (pressures) associated with increased marine vessel traffic: oil spill, vessel noise and vessel strike. Projects varied in their potential for localized impacts (pressures) including shoreline development, harbor oil spill, pipeline spill, coal dust accumulation and nearshore LNG explosion. Based on available published data, impact for each pressure/species interaction was rated as likely, possible or

  8. Identification of threats using linguistics-based knowledge extraction.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chew, Peter A.

    2008-09-01

    One of the challenges increasingly facing intelligence analysts, along with professionals in many other fields, is the vast amount of data which needs to be reviewed and converted into meaningful information, and ultimately into rational, wise decisions by policy makers. The advent of the world wide web (WWW) has magnified this challenge. A key hypothesis which has guided us is that threats come from ideas (or ideology), and ideas are almost always put into writing before the threats materialize. While in the past the 'writing' might have taken the form of pamphlets or books, today's medium of choice is the WWW, precisely because it is a decentralized, flexible, and low-cost method of reaching a wide audience. However, a factor which complicates matters for the analyst is that material published on the WWW may be in any of a large number of languages. In 'Identification of Threats Using Linguistics-Based Knowledge Extraction', we have sought to use Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA) and other similar text analysis techniques to map documents from the WWW, in whatever language they were originally written, to a common language-independent vector-based representation. This then opens up a number of possibilities. First, similar documents can be found across language boundaries. Secondly, a set of documents in multiple languages can be visualized in a graphical representation. These alone offer potentially useful tools and capabilities to the intelligence analyst whose knowledge of foreign languages may be limited. Finally, we can test the over-arching hypothesis--that ideology, and more specifically ideology which represents a threat, can be detected solely from the words which express the ideology--by using the vector-based representation of documents to predict additional features (such as the ideology) within a framework based on supervised learning. In this report, we present the results of a three-year project of the same name. We believe

  9. Ranking Activities Based on Their Impact and Threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-01

    11] states that: “Threat Assessment involves assessing situations to determine whether detrimental events are likely to occur. Per the JDL Data...a combined reference model based on many years of research in this area. The model, as shown in Figure 1, was built by combining the JDL Data...Fusion model and Endsley’s SA Model. As part of [7], we’ve refined how one can think of JDL Levels 1 and 2 as well as described differences between

  10. Snow White and the Seven Warnings: Threats to Authentic Evaluation (Assessment).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harman, Susan

    1992-01-01

    Identifies and analyzes seven threats to authentic evaluation, and predicts implications. Warns educators to beware of the term "standards"; norm-referencing; aggregation; credibility, comparability, and calibration; multiple measures; schemes that rule out varieties of excellence; and "untests." (SR)

  11. Evaluating Threats in Multinational Marine Ecosystems: A Coast Salish First Nations and Tribal Perspective.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph K Gaydos

    Full Text Available Despite the merit of managing natural resources on the scale of ecosystems, evaluating threats and managing risk in ecosystems that span multiple countries or jurisdictions can be challenging. This requires each government involved to consider actions in concert with actions being taken in other countries by co-managing entities. Multiple proposed fossil fuel-related and port development projects in the Salish Sea, a 16,925 km2 inland sea shared by Washington State (USA, British Columbia (Canada, and Indigenous Coast Salish governments, have the potential to increase marine vessel traffic and negatively impact natural resources. There is no legal mandate or management mechanism requiring a comprehensive review of the potential cumulative impacts of these development activities throughout the Salish Sea and across the international border. This project identifies ongoing and proposed energy-related development projects that will increase marine vessel traffic in the Salish Sea and evaluates the threats each project poses to natural resources important to the Coast Salish. While recognizing that Coast Salish traditions identify all species as important and connected, we used expert elicitation to identify 50 species upon which we could evaluate impact. These species were chosen because Coast Salish depend upon them heavily for harvest revenue or as a staple food source, they were particularly culturally or spiritually significant, or they were historically part of Coast Salish lifeways. We identified six development projects, each of which had three potential impacts (pressures associated with increased marine vessel traffic: oil spill, vessel noise and vessel strike. Projects varied in their potential for localized impacts (pressures including shoreline development, harbor oil spill, pipeline spill, coal dust accumulation and nearshore LNG explosion. Based on available published data, impact for each pressure/species interaction was rated as

  12. 基于AHP模糊综合评价法的辐射源威胁等级评估%Threat degree assessment of radar radiation source based on AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈雅雯; 夏伟杰; 吴连慧; 周梦晓; 翟羽佳

    2014-01-01

    在网络攻击掩护战机突防的网电对抗战场中,如何对目标组网雷达的威胁度进行科学的评估,是网电对抗作战指挥的重要环节。根据组网雷达辐射源威胁等级评估指标体系,结合层次分析法(AHP)和模糊综合评价法的优点,借助AHP计算指标权重的优势,将定量与定性相结合,对组网雷达威胁度进行评估,为网络攻击选择目标提供了理论依据。仿真结果验证了该算法的正确性与有效性。%In battlefield of penetration fighter covered by cyber attacks,It is an important part of operational command in cyberspace countermeasures to assess the threat degree of the netted radar system for target scientifically. According to the index system about the threat assessment of radar emitters for netted radar system,an evaluation method with the advantages of AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is proposed for the assessment of radar emitters,which calculates the index weights with AHP and combines quantitative and qualitative algorithms. It provided a theoretical basis for selecting the target in cyber at-tacks. Simulation test shows the correctness and effectiveness of the method.

  13. Resilience Evaluation of Demand Response as Spinning Reserve under Cyber-Physical Threats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anas AlMajali

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In the future, automated demand response mechanisms will be used as spinning reserve. Demand response in the smart grid must be resilient to cyber-physical threats. In this paper, we evaluate the resilience of demand response when used as spinning reserve in the presence of cyber-physical threats. We quantify this evaluation by correlating the stability of the system in the presence of attacks measured by system frequency (Hz and attack level measured by the amount of load (MW that responds to the demand response event. The results demonstrate the importance of anticipating the dependability of demand response before it can be relied upon as spinning reserve.

  14. Vasopressin needs an audience: neuropeptide elicited stress responses are contingent upon perceived social evaluative threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shalev, Idan; Israel, Salomon; Uzefovsky, Florina; Gritsenko, Inga; Kaitz, Marsha; Ebstein, Richard P

    2011-06-01

    The nonapeptide arginine vasopressin (AVP) plays an important role in hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal axis regulation and also functions as a social hormone in a wide variety of species, from voles to humans. In the current report we use a variety of stress inducing tasks, including the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST) and intranasal administration of AVP to show that intranasal administration of this neuropeptide leads to a significant increase in salivary cortisol and pulse rate, specifically in conditions where subjects perform tasks in the presence of a social evaluative threat (task performance could be negatively judged by others). In contrast, in conditions without a social evaluative threat (no task condition, modified TSST without audience and bike ergometry), subjects receiving AVP did not differ from subjects receiving placebo. Thus exogenous AVP's influence is contingent upon a circumscribed set of initial conditions that constitute a direct threat to the maintenance of our social selves. Stress evoked by social threat is an integral part of social life and is related to self-esteem and in extreme forms, to poor mental health (e.g., social phobia). Our findings suggest that AVP is a key component in the circuit that interlaces stress and social threat and findings offer inroads to our understanding of individual differences in sociability and in stress response elicited in threatening social situations.

  15. Attending to Threat: Race-based Patterns of Selective Attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trawalter, Sophie; Todd, Andrew R; Baird, Abigail A; Richeson, Jennifer A

    2008-09-01

    The present research investigated the extent to which the stereotype that young Black men are threatening and dangerous has become so robust and ingrained in the collective American unconscious that Black men now capture attention, much like evolved threats such as spiders and snakes. Specifically, using a dot-probe detection paradigm, White participants revealed biased attention toward Black faces relative to White faces (Study 1). Because the faces were presented only briefly (30-ms), the bias is thought to reflect the early engagement of attention. The attentional bias was eliminated, however, when the faces displayed averted eye-gaze (Study 2). That is, when the threat communicated by the Black faces was attenuated by a relevant, competing socio-emotional cue- in this case, averted eye-gaze-they no longer captured perceivers' attention. Broader implications for social cognition, as well as public policies that reify these prevailing perceptions of young Black men are discussed.

  16. Pattern-Based Design of Insider Threat Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    December 2014 TECHNICAL NOTE CMU /SEI-2014-TN-024 CERT Division http://www.sei.cmu.edu Copyright 2014 Carnegie Mellon University This...gineering Institute at permission@sei.cmu.edu. * These restrictions do not apply to U.S. government entities. DM-0001852 CMU /SEI-2014-TN-024 | i...Thumbnail Sketches 13 References/Bibliography 18 CMU /SEI-2014-TN-024 | ii List of Figures Figure 1: Preliminary Insider Threat Mitigation

  17. Nowhere to Hide: The Growing Threat to Air Bases

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    revealed the destruc- tion of six AV-8B Harrier jets and damage to two other aircraft; addi- tionally, “six aircraft hangers [sic] suffered damage,” and...seam that a technologically savvy enemy could exploit. We must develop modeling, simulation , and defenses to ac- count for these new threats before a...aircraft worthless or can wipe out a barracks occupied by essential personnel such as pilots or aircraft technicians. The Air Force and coalition

  18. Study on a Threat-Countermeasure Model Based on International Standard Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillermo Horacio Ramirez Caceres

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Many international standards exist in the field of IT security. This research is based on the ISO/IEC 15408, 15446, 19791, 13335 and 17799 standards. In this paper, we propose a knowledge base comprising a threat countermeasure model based on international standards for identifying and specifying threats which affect IT environments. In addition, the proposed knowledge base system aims at fusing similar security control policies and objectives in order to create effective security guidelines for specific IT environments. As a result, a knowledge base of security objectives was developed on the basis of the relationships inside the standards as well as the relationships between different standards. In addition, a web application was developed which displays details about the most common threats to information systems, and for each threat presents a set of related security control policies from different international standards, including ISO/IEC 27002.

  19. Evaluating and ranking threats to the long-term persistence of polar bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwood, Todd C.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Douglas, David C.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Rode, Karyn D.; Durner, George M.; Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.

    2015-01-01

    The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) was listed as a globally threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) in 2008, mostly due to the significant threat to their future population viability from rapidly declining Arctic sea ice. A core mandate of the ESA is the development of a recovery plan that identifies steps to maintain viable populations of a listed species. A substantive evaluation of the relative influence of putative threats to population persistence is helpful to recovery planning. Because management actions must often be taken in the face of substantial information gaps, a formalized evaluation hypothesizing potential stressors and their relationships with population persistence can improve identification of relevant conservation actions. To this end, we updated a Bayesian network model previously used to forecast the future status of polar bears worldwide. We used new information on actual and predicted sea ice loss and polar bear responses to evaluate the relative influence of plausible threats and their mitigation through management actions on the persistence of polar bears in four ecoregions. We found that polar bear outcomes worsened over time through the end of the century under both stabilized and unabated greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pathways. Under the unabated pathway (i.e., RCP 8.5), the time it took for polar bear populations in two of four ecoregions to reach a dominant probability of greatly decreased was hastened by about 25 years. Under the stabilized GHG emission pathway (i.e., RCP 4.5), where GHG emissions peak around the year 2040, the polar bear population in the Archipelago Ecoregion of High Arctic Canada never reached a dominant probability of greatly decreased, reinforcing earlier suggestions of this ecoregion’s potential to serve as a long-term refugium. The most influential drivers of adverse polar bear outcomes were declines to overall sea ice conditions and to the marine prey base. Improved sea ice conditions

  20. Effects of Self-Evaluation Threat on Schadenfreude Toward Strangers in a Reality TV Show.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Hitomi

    2016-06-01

    Schadenfreude toward strangers in a reality TV show may be affected by self-evaluation threat. This study extends previous work by adding a control group to positive and negative feedback groups in order to investigate the effects of self-evaluation threat. Sex of the target of schadenfreude and schadenfroh participant was considered. Among undergraduate students screened for low general self-esteem, 31 men (M = 20.3 ± 1.6 years old) and 59 women (M = 20.0 ± 1.2 years old) volunteered to participate. Participants performed a simple calculation task, and then received negative, positive, or no feedback regarding the task before completing the State Self-Esteem Scale and watching videos taken from American Idol that showed an applicant being criticized by judges. After watching videos, participants completed items related to schadenfreude. There were no differences in schadenfreude toward strangers between the three feedback groups. In addition to the Japanese tendency of reduced self-enhancement in self-threatening situations, targets with no psychological closeness may also explain the lack of a relationship between self-evaluation threat and schadenfreude.

  1. Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Route Planning in the Presence of a Threat Environment Based on a Virtual Globe Platform

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Zhang

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Route planning is a key technology for an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV to fly reliably and safely in the presence of a threat environment. Existing route planning methods are mainly based on the simulation scene, whereas approaches based on the virtual globe platform have rarely been reported. In this paper, a new planning space for the virtual globe and the planner is proposed and a common threat model is constructed for threats including a no-fly zone, hazardous weather, radar coverage area, missile killing zone and dynamic threats. Additionally, an improved ant colony optimization (ACO algorithm is developed to enhance route planning efficiency and terrain masking ability. Our route planning methods are optimized on the virtual globe platform for practicability. A route planning system and six types of planners were developed and implemented on the virtual globe platform. Finally, our evaluation results demonstrate that our optimum planner has better performance in terms of fuel consumption, terrain masking, and risk avoidance. Experiments also demonstrate that the method and system described in this paper can be used to perform global route planning and mission operations.

  2. Adaptive, Model-Based Monitoring and Threat Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdes, Alfonso; Skinner, Keith

    2002-09-01

    We explore the suitability of model-based probabilistic techniques, such as Bayes networks, to the field of intrusion detection and alert report correlation. We describe a network intrusion detection system (IDS) using Bayes inference, wherein the knowledge base is encoded not as rules but as conditional probability relations between observables and hypotheses of normal and malicious usage. The same high-performance Bayes inference library was employed in a component of the Mission-Based Correlation effort, using an initial knowledge base that adaptively learns the security administrator's preference for alert priority and rank. Another major effort demonstrated probabilistic techniques in heterogeneous sensor correlation. We provide results for simulated attack data, live traffic, and the CyberPanel Grand Challenge Problem. Our results establish that model-based probabilistic techniques are an important complementary capability to signature-based methods in detection and correlation.

  3. The role of interpersonal processes in shaping inflammatory responses to social-evaluative threat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    John-Henderson, Neha A; Stellar, Jennifer E; Mendoza-Denton, Rodolfo; Francis, Darlene D

    2015-09-01

    In response to social-evaluative threat induced in the laboratory, lower (compared to higher) subjective social class of a participant predicts greater increases in the inflammatory cytokine interleukin-6 (IL-6). In spite of the interpersonal nature of social-evaluation, little work has explored whether characteristics of the evaluator shape physiological responses in this context. In the current study, in a sample of 190 college students (male=66), we explored whether one's subjective social class interacts with the perceived social class of an evaluator to predict changes in Oral Mucosal Transudate (OMT) IL-6 in response to the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST). Participants were randomly assigned to be the speaker or the evaluator. Extending past work, we found that while speakers low in subjective social class consistently respond with strong increases in IL-6 regardless of their perception of their evaluator's social class, speakers high in subjective social class responded with greater increases in IL-6 when their evaluator was perceived as high social class compared to when they were perceived as low social class. This finding highlights the importance of perceptions of the evaluator in informing inflammatory responses to a social-evaluative task.

  4. Research of Early Warning Satellite Threat Assessment Based on Threat Degree Function%基于威胁度函数的预警卫星威胁评估研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张安理; 李智; 张雅声; 王庆文

    2016-01-01

    预警卫星作为导弹作战中重要的天基威胁源之一,目前对其评估多为效能评估,并没有从威胁的角度开展评估。通过对预警卫星威胁要素进行分析与提取,提出了一种基于威胁度函数的威胁评估方法。该方法综合了静态性能与作战状态的各个方面,使指挥员能够比较准确地把握预警卫星对导弹作战的威胁程度,从而为指挥员指挥决策提供依据。通过实例计算验证了该评估方法的可行性和有效性。%For early warning satellite,as one of the important space-based threat in the missile combat, now its effectiveness evaluation of early warning satellite was made,but was not for threat assessment. Through the analysis of the threat of early warning satellite elements and extract,we put forward a threat assessment method based on threat degree function.This method combined the static indicators and opera-tional status.It allowed the commander to grasp the degree of the threat of early warning satellite more ac-curately,which provided the basis for commander’s decision.The feasibility and effectiveness of this method were proved by a practical example.

  5. A Novel Fiber Optic Based Surveillance System for Prevention of Pipeline Integrity Threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejedor, Javier; Macias-Guarasa, Javier; Martins, Hugo F; Piote, Daniel; Pastor-Graells, Juan; Martin-Lopez, Sonia; Corredera, Pedro; Gonzalez-Herraez, Miguel

    2017-02-12

    This paper presents a novel surveillance system aimed at the detection and classification of threats in the vicinity of a long gas pipeline. The sensing system is based on phase-sensitive optical time domain reflectometry (ϕ-OTDR) technology for signal acquisition and pattern recognition strategies for threat identification. The proposal incorporates contextual information at the feature level and applies a system combination strategy for pattern classification. The contextual information at the feature level is based on the tandem approach (using feature representations produced by discriminatively-trained multi-layer perceptrons) by employing feature vectors that spread different temporal contexts. The system combination strategy is based on a posterior combination of likelihoods computed from different pattern classification processes. The system operates in two different modes: (1) machine + activity identification, which recognizes the activity being carried out by a certain machine, and (2) threat detection, aimed at detecting threats no matter what the real activity being conducted is. In comparison with a previous system based on the same rigorous experimental setup, the results show that the system combination from the contextual feature information improves the results for each individual class in both operational modes, as well as the overall classification accuracy, with statistically-significant improvements.

  6. A Novel Fiber Optic Based Surveillance System for Prevention of Pipeline Integrity Threats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Tejedor

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel surveillance system aimed at the detection and classification of threats in the vicinity of a long gas pipeline. The sensing system is based on phase-sensitive optical time domain reflectometry (ϕ-OTDR technology for signal acquisition and pattern recognition strategies for threat identification. The proposal incorporates contextual information at the feature level and applies a system combination strategy for pattern classification. The contextual information at the feature level is based on the tandem approach (using feature representations produced by discriminatively-trained multi-layer perceptrons by employing feature vectors that spread different temporal contexts. The system combination strategy is based on a posterior combination of likelihoods computed from different pattern classification processes. The system operates in two different modes: (1 machine + activity identification, which recognizes the activity being carried out by a certain machine, and (2 threat detection, aimed at detecting threats no matter what the real activity being conducted is. In comparison with a previous system based on the same rigorous experimental setup, the results show that the system combination from the contextual feature information improves the results for each individual class in both operational modes, as well as the overall classification accuracy, with statistically-significant improvements.

  7. A Novel Fiber Optic Based Surveillance System for Prevention of Pipeline Integrity Threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejedor, Javier; Macias-Guarasa, Javier; Martins, Hugo F.; Piote, Daniel; Pastor-Graells, Juan; Martin-Lopez, Sonia; Corredera, Pedro; Gonzalez-Herraez, Miguel

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a novel surveillance system aimed at the detection and classification of threats in the vicinity of a long gas pipeline. The sensing system is based on phase-sensitive optical time domain reflectometry (ϕ-OTDR) technology for signal acquisition and pattern recognition strategies for threat identification. The proposal incorporates contextual information at the feature level and applies a system combination strategy for pattern classification. The contextual information at the feature level is based on the tandem approach (using feature representations produced by discriminatively-trained multi-layer perceptrons) by employing feature vectors that spread different temporal contexts. The system combination strategy is based on a posterior combination of likelihoods computed from different pattern classification processes. The system operates in two different modes: (1) machine + activity identification, which recognizes the activity being carried out by a certain machine, and (2) threat detection, aimed at detecting threats no matter what the real activity being conducted is. In comparison with a previous system based on the same rigorous experimental setup, the results show that the system combination from the contextual feature information improves the results for each individual class in both operational modes, as well as the overall classification accuracy, with statistically-significant improvements. PMID:28208687

  8. Psychosocial Modeling of Insider Threat Risk Based on Behavioral and Word Use Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Noonan, Christine F.; Brown, Christopher R.; Ferryman, Thomas A.

    2013-10-01

    In many insider crimes, managers and other coworkers observed that the offenders had exhibited signs of stress, disgruntlement, or other issues, but no alarms were raised. Barriers to using such psychosocial indicators include the inability to recognize the signs and the failure to record the behaviors so that they can be assessed. A psychosocial model was developed to assess an employee’s behavior associated with an increased risk of insider abuse. The model is based on case studies and research literature on factors/correlates associated with precursor behavioral manifestations of individuals committing insider crimes. A complementary Personality Factor modeling approach was developed based on analysis to derive relevant personality characteristics from word use. Several implementations of the psychosocial model were evaluated by comparing their agreement with judgments of human resources and management professionals; the personality factor modeling approach was examined using email samples. If implemented in an operational setting, these models should be part of a set of management tools for employee assessment to identify employees who pose a greater insider threat.

  9. Loneliness accentuates age differences in cardiovascular responses to social evaluative threat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Anthony D; Rothstein, Jeremy D; Uchino, Bert N

    2012-03-01

    The effects of aging and loneliness on cardiovascular stress responses were examined in 91 young (18-30 years) and 91 older (65-80 years) normotensive adults. Participants completed the revised UCLA Loneliness Scale and a modified version of the Trier Social Stress Test. Piece-wise linear growth-curve analysis was used to model group differences in resting, reactivity, and recovery levels of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP). Replicating and extending prior research, analyses revealed age-related increases in resting SBP and DBP. Adjusting for demographics and health covariates, interactions were found for SBP in which age differences in stress reactivity and recovery were greater among lonely than nonlonely participants. Findings provide further evidence that loneliness interacts with age to augment cardiovascular risk to social evaluative threat.

  10. Game Theoretic Evaluation of Threat Detection Problems-The Central Role of the Adversary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heasler, Patrick G.; Wood, Thomas W.; Reichmuth, Barbara A.

    2007-01-01

    A wide variety of security problems hinge on the detection of threats and discrimination of threats from innocuous objects. The theory that frames these problems is common among medical diagnostics, radar and sonar imaging, and detection of radiological, chemical, and biological agents. In many of these problems, the nature of the threat is subject to control by a malicious adversary, and the choice of a reference (or "design basis") threat is a very diffcult, and often intractable, aspect of the problem. It is this class of problems that this report considers.

  11. Threats to Bitcoin Software

    OpenAIRE

    Kateraas, Christian H

    2014-01-01

    Collect and analyse threat models to the Bitcoin ecosystem and its software. The create misuse case, attack trees, and sequence diagrams of the threats. Create a malicious client from the gathered threat models. Once the development of the client is complete, test the client and evaluate its performance. From this, assess the security of the Bitcoin software.

  12. On the early detection of threats in the real world based on open-source information on the internet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouma, H.; Rajadell Rojas, O.; Worm, D.T.H.; Versloot, C.A.; Wedemeijer, H.

    2012-01-01

    Many threats in the real world can be related to activities of persons on the internet. Internet surveillance aims to detect threats in an early stage and to assist in finding suspects based on information from the web. However, the amount of data on the internet rapidly increases and it is time con

  13. Law enforcers recognition level emerging threats based on physical appearance and behavior signs the enemy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radzievskiy R.M.

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: examine the effectiveness of the training method of differential approach to the choice of means of influence on the action of law enforcers opponent with different levels of aggressiveness. Material : the experiment involved 15 students of the Kyiv National Academy of Internal Affairs and the 15 employees of the State Guard of Ukraine. Results : presented curriculum for special physical and tactical training. The program details the conceptual apparatus of THREATS and DANGERS manifestations of different levels of aggressiveness opponent (case analysis of its motor behavior. The study participants underwent 7 day course focused training. The basis of the course is an advanced theoretical base. The base is aimed at developing knowledge and skills of employees in determining the level of danger. Including threats from testing and modeling episodes of extreme situations the options cadets. Conclusions : In the simulated collision situations with aggressive opponent to the students significantly improved the adequacy of the response to the threat of execution time and within the legal grounds. Recognition was determined by the level of aggressiveness manifest manners enemy, his emotions, motivation, motor behavior, positional arrangement for 2 - 3 seconds. The program contributed to the development of qualities: attention, orientation, perception, motor lead.

  14. Coping with medical threat: An evaluation of the Threatening Medical Situations Inventory (TMSI)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F.J. van Zuuren (Florence); K.I. de Groot (Karina); N.L. Mulder (Niels); P.E.H.M. Muris (Peter)

    1996-01-01

    textabstractThe Dutch Threatening Medical Situations Inventory (TMSI) has been developed to measure cognitive confrontation ('monitoring') and cognitive avoidance ('blunting') within the domain of medical threat. It consists of four scenarios of threatening medical situations, followed by monitoring

  15. Radioactive Threat Detection with Scattering Physics: A Model-Based Application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Candy, J V; Chambers, D H; Breitfeller, E F; Guidry, B L; Verbeke, J M; Axelrod, M A; Sale, K E; Meyer, A M

    2010-01-21

    The detection of radioactive contraband is a critical problem in maintaining national security for any country. Emissions from threat materials challenge both detection and measurement technologies especially when concealed by various types of shielding complicating the transport physics significantly. The development of a model-based sequential Bayesian processor that captures both the underlying transport physics including scattering offers a physics-based approach to attack this challenging problem. It is shown that this processor can be used to develop an effective detection technique.

  16. Subjective Performance Evaluations, Self-esteem, and Ego-threats in Principal-agent Relations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sebald, Alexander Christopher; Walzl, Markus

    find that agents sanction whenever the feedback of principals is below their subjective self-evaluations even if the agents' payoff is independent of the principals' feedback. Based on our experimental analysis we propose a principal-agent model with subjective performance evaluations that accommodates...

  17. Cyber Security Threats to Safety-Critical, Space-Based Infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, C. W.; Atencia Yepez, A.

    2012-01-01

    Space-based systems play an important role within national critical infrastructures. They are being integrated into advanced air-traffic management applications, rail signalling systems, energy distribution software etc. Unfortunately, the end users of communications, location sensing and timing applications often fail to understand that these infrastructures are vulnerable to a wide range of security threats. The following pages focus on concerns associated with potential cyber-attacks. These are important because future attacks may invalidate many of the safety assumptions that support the provision of critical space-based services. These safety assumptions are based on standard forms of hazard analysis that ignore cyber-security considerations This is a significant limitation when, for instance, security attacks can simultaneously exploit multiple vulnerabilities in a manner that would never occur without a deliberate enemy seeking to damage space based systems and ground infrastructures. We address this concern through the development of a combined safety and security risk assessment methodology. The aim is to identify attack scenarios that justify the allocation of additional design resources so that safety barriers can be strengthened to increase our resilience against security threats.

  18. Interpersonal evaluations following threats to self: role of self-esteem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heatherton, T F; Vohs, K D

    2000-04-01

    In 2 studies, the authors used dyadic interactions to assess the influence of ego threat on likability as a function of self-esteem. In both studies, 2 naive participants engaged in a structured conversation; in half of the dyads, 1 participant received an ego threat prior to the interaction. In the 1st study, threatened high self-esteem participants were rated as less likable than were threatened low self-esteem participants. The 2nd study confirmed that ego threats are associated with decreased liking for those with high self-esteem and with increased liking for those with low self-esteem. A mediational analysis demonstrated that decreased liking among high self-esteem participants was due to being perceived as antagonistic. Study 2 also indicated that the findings could not be explained by trait levels of narcissism. These patterns are interpreted in terms of differential sensitivity to potential interpersonal rejection.

  19. Inadequate evaluation and management of threats in Australia's Marine Parks, including the Great Barrier Reef, misdirect Marine conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kearney, Bob; Farebrother, Graham

    2014-01-01

    The magnificence of the Great Barrier Reef and its worthiness of extraordinary efforts to protect it from whatever threats may arise are unquestioned. Yet almost four decades after the establishment of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, Australia's most expensive and intensely researched Marine Protected Area, the health of the Reef is reported to be declining alarmingly. The management of the suite of threats to the health of the reef has clearly been inadequate, even though there have been several notable successes. It is argued that the failure to prioritise correctly all major threats to the reef, coupled with the exaggeration of the benefits of calling the park a protected area and zoning subsets of areas as 'no-take', has distracted attention from adequately addressing the real causes of impact. Australia's marine conservation efforts have been dominated by commitment to a National Representative System of Marine Protected Areas. In so doing, Australia has displaced the internationally accepted primary priority for pursuing effective protection of marine environments with inadequately critical adherence to the principle of having more and bigger marine parks. The continuing decline in the health of the Great Barrier Reef and other Australian coastal areas confirms the limitations of current area management for combating threats to marine ecosystems. There is great need for more critical evaluation of how marine environments can be protected effectively and managed efficiently.

  20. Defense against Insider Threat: a Framework for Gathering Goal-based Requirements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nunes Leal Franqueira, V.; Eck, van P.A.T.; Pernici, B.; Gulla, J. A.

    2007-01-01

    Insider threat is becoming comparable to outsider threat in frequency of security events. This is a worrying situation, since insider attacks have a high probability of success because insiders have authorized access and legitimate privileges. Despite their importance, insider threats are still not

  1. EVALUATION OF THE POSSIBLE THREAT OF NAFTA ON U.S. CATFISH INDUSTRY USING A TRADITIONAL IMPORT DEMAND FUNCTION

    OpenAIRE

    Carel LIGEON; Jolly, Curtis M.; Jackson, John D.

    1996-01-01

    The effects of increased exports from NAFTA member countries on the U.S. domestic catfish industry were evaluated. Results showed that the quantity of catfish imported will fall if the domestic price of catfish falls relative to the import price. Past imports have no effect on present imports. The income elasticity was negative indicating that imported catfish may be an inferior good. Doubling present levels of imports from NAFTA member countries is not a threat to the U.S. catfish industry.

  2. Evaluation of hybrid fusion 2+ approach for providing air-to-air situational awareness and threat assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kangjin David; Wiesenfeld, Eric; Colony, Mike

    2006-05-01

    Modern combat aircraft pilots increasingly rely on high-level fusion models (JDL Levels 2/3) to provide real-time engagement support in hostile situations. These models provide both Situational Awareness (SA) and Threat Assessment (TA) based on data and the relationships between the data. This information represents two distinct classes of uncertainty: vagueness and ambiguity. To address the needs associated with modeling both of these types of data uncertainty, an innovative hybrid approach was recently introduced, combining probability theory and possibility theory into a unified computational framework. The goal of this research is to qualitatively and quantitatively address the advantages and disadvantages of adopting this hybrid framework as well as identifying instances in which the combined model outperforms or is more appropriate than more classical inference approaches. To accomplish this task, domain specific models will be developed using different theoretical approaches and conventions, and then evaluated in comparison to situational ground truth to determine their accuracy and fidelity. Additionally, the performance tradeoff between accuracy and complexity will be examined in terms of computational cost to determine both the advantages and disadvantages of each approach.

  3. A knowledge-based approach to estimating the magnitude and spatial patterns of potential threats to soil biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orgiazzi, Alberto; Panagos, Panos; Yigini, Yusuf; Dunbar, Martha B; Gardi, Ciro; Montanarella, Luca; Ballabio, Cristiano

    2016-03-01

    Because of the increasing pressures exerted on soil, below-ground life is under threat. Knowledge-based rankings of potential threats to different components of soil biodiversity were developed in order to assess the spatial distribution of threats on a European scale. A list of 13 potential threats to soil biodiversity was proposed to experts with different backgrounds in order to assess the potential for three major components of soil biodiversity: soil microorganisms, fauna, and biological functions. This approach allowed us to obtain knowledge-based rankings of threats. These classifications formed the basis for the development of indices through an additive aggregation model that, along with ad-hoc proxies for each pressure, allowed us to preliminarily assess the spatial patterns of potential threats. Intensive exploitation was identified as the highest pressure. In contrast, the use of genetically modified organisms in agriculture was considered as the threat with least potential. The potential impact of climate change showed the highest uncertainty. Fourteen out of the 27 considered countries have more than 40% of their soils with moderate-high to high potential risk for all three components of soil biodiversity. Arable soils are the most exposed to pressures. Soils within the boreal biogeographic region showed the lowest risk potential. The majority of soils at risk are outside the boundaries of protected areas. First maps of risks to three components of soil biodiversity based on the current scientific knowledge were developed. Despite the intrinsic limits of knowledge-based assessments, a remarkable potential risk to soil biodiversity was observed. Guidelines to preliminarily identify and circumscribe soils potentially at risk are provided. This approach may be used in future research to assess threat at both local and global scale and identify areas of possible risk and, subsequently, design appropriate strategies for monitoring and protection of soil

  4. Real-time network security situation visualization and threat assessment based on semi-Markov process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Junhua

    2013-03-01

    To cope with a large amount of data in current sensed environments, decision aid tools should provide their understanding of situations in a time-efficient manner, so there is an increasing need for real-time network security situation awareness and threat assessment. In this study, the state transition model of vulnerability in the network based on semi-Markov process is proposed at first. Once events are triggered by an attacker's action or system response, the current states of the vulnerabilities are known. Then we calculate the transition probabilities of the vulnerability from the current state to security failure state. Furthermore in order to improve accuracy of our algorithms, we adjust the probabilities that they exploit the vulnerability according to the attacker's skill level. In the light of the preconditions and post-conditions of vulnerabilities in the network, attack graph is built to visualize security situation in real time. Subsequently, we predict attack path, recognize attack intention and estimate the impact through analysis of attack graph. These help administrators to insight into intrusion steps, determine security state and assess threat. Finally testing in a network shows that this method is reasonable and feasible, and can undertake tremendous analysis task to facilitate administrators' work.

  5. Evaluation and Verification of the Global Rapid Identification of Threats System for Infectious Diseases in Textual Data Sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew G. Huff

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Global Rapid Identification of Threats System (GRITS is a biosurveillance application that enables infectious disease analysts to monitor nontraditional information sources (e.g., social media, online news outlets, ProMED-mail reports, and blogs for infectious disease threats. GRITS analyzes these textual data sources by identifying, extracting, and succinctly visualizing epidemiologic information and suggests potentially associated infectious diseases. This manuscript evaluates and verifies the diagnoses that GRITS performs and discusses novel aspects of the software package. Via GRITS’ web interface, infectious disease analysts can examine dynamic visualizations of GRITS’ analyses and explore historical infectious disease emergence events. The GRITS API can be used to continuously analyze information feeds, and the API enables GRITS technology to be easily incorporated into other biosurveillance systems. GRITS is a flexible tool that can be modified to conduct sophisticated medical report triaging, expanded to include customized alert systems, and tailored to address other biosurveillance needs.

  6. Evaluation and Verification of the Global Rapid Identification of Threats System for Infectious Diseases in Textual Data Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breit, Nathan

    2016-01-01

    The Global Rapid Identification of Threats System (GRITS) is a biosurveillance application that enables infectious disease analysts to monitor nontraditional information sources (e.g., social media, online news outlets, ProMED-mail reports, and blogs) for infectious disease threats. GRITS analyzes these textual data sources by identifying, extracting, and succinctly visualizing epidemiologic information and suggests potentially associated infectious diseases. This manuscript evaluates and verifies the diagnoses that GRITS performs and discusses novel aspects of the software package. Via GRITS' web interface, infectious disease analysts can examine dynamic visualizations of GRITS' analyses and explore historical infectious disease emergence events. The GRITS API can be used to continuously analyze information feeds, and the API enables GRITS technology to be easily incorporated into other biosurveillance systems. GRITS is a flexible tool that can be modified to conduct sophisticated medical report triaging, expanded to include customized alert systems, and tailored to address other biosurveillance needs.

  7. Effects of social comparison direction, threat, and self-esteem on affect, self-evaluation, and expected success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aspinwall, L G; Taylor, S E

    1993-05-01

    Two studies explored the conditions under which social comparisons are used to manage negative affect and naturalistic threats. Study 1 examined induced mood and dispositional self-esteem as determinants of affective responses to upward and downward comparisons. Consistent with a mood repair prediction, only low-self-esteem Ss in whom a negative mood had been induced reported improved mood after exposure to downward comparison information. Study 2 examined the impact of naturalistic threats on responses to comparison information. Relative to a no-comparison baseline, low-self-esteem Ss who had experienced a recent academic setback reported more favorable self-evaluations and greater expectations of future success in college after exposure to downward comparison information. These results remained significant after controlling statistically for general distress. Implications for downward comparison theory are discussed.

  8. Biased evaluations of in-group and out-group spectator behavior at sporting events: the importance of team identification and threats to social identity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wann, Daniel L; Grieve, Frederick G

    2005-10-01

    Previous researchers have demonstrated that sport fans often exhibit in-group bias by reporting more positive evaluations of fellow in-group fans than of rival out-group fans. The authors designed the present investigation to extend previous research by replicating past efforts in a field setting and to advance our understanding of the impact of social identity threat. The present authors hypothesized that, in addition to the base-level in-group bias effect, the bias effect would be most pronounced in situations involving a threat to one's social identity. The authors believed that fans of a losing team and fans of a home team would experience threats to their identity and, consequently, exhibit particularly high levels of in-group favoritism. Further, because past researchers had shown that one's level of group identification plays a vital role in social perception, the present authors predicted an interaction in which the greatest amount of bias would be exhibited by highly identified fans rooting for a home team that had lost. Data gathered from spectators (N = 148) at 2 North American college basketball games confirmed the authors' expectations, with the exception that the supporters of the winning team reported higher levels of bias. The authors discussed the factors underlying the unexpected game outcome effect and the use of in-group bias as a coping strategy.

  9. Evaluating Perceived Probability of Threat-Relevant Outcomes and Temporal Orientation in Flying Phobia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mavromoustakos, Elena; Clark, Gavin I; Rock, Adam J

    2016-01-01

    Probability bias regarding threat-relevant outcomes has been demonstrated across anxiety disorders but has not been investigated in flying phobia. Individual temporal orientation (time perspective) may be hypothesised to influence estimates of negative outcomes occurring. The present study investigated whether probability bias could be demonstrated in flying phobia and whether probability estimates of negative flying events was predicted by time perspective. Sixty flying phobic and fifty-five non-flying-phobic adults were recruited to complete an online questionnaire. Participants completed the Flight Anxiety Scale, Probability Scale (measuring perceived probability of flying-negative events, general-negative and general positive events) and the Past-Negative, Future and Present-Hedonistic subscales of the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory (variables argued to predict mental travel forward and backward in time). The flying phobic group estimated the probability of flying negative and general negative events occurring as significantly higher than non-flying phobics. Past-Negative scores (positively) and Present-Hedonistic scores (negatively) predicted probability estimates of flying negative events. The Future Orientation subscale did not significantly predict probability estimates. This study is the first to demonstrate probability bias for threat-relevant outcomes in flying phobia. Results suggest that time perspective may influence perceived probability of threat-relevant outcomes but the nature of this relationship remains to be determined.

  10. Evaluation of an algorithm for estimating a patient's life threat risk from an ambulance call

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moriwaki Yoshihiro

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Utilizing a computer algorithm, information from calls to an ambulance service was used to calculate the risk of patients being in a life-threatening condition (life threat risk, at the time of the call. If the estimated life threat risk was higher than 10%, the probability that a patient faced a risk of dying was recognized as very high and categorized as category A+. The present study aimed to review the accuracy of the algorithm. Methods Data collected for six months from the Yokohama new emergency system was used. In the system, emergency call workers interviewed ambulance callers to obtain information necessary to assess triage, which included consciousness level, breathing status, walking ability, position, and complexion. An emergency patient's life threat risk was then estimated by a computer algorithm applying logistic models. This study compared the estimated life threat risk occurring at the time of the emergency call to the patients' state or severity of condition, i.e. death confirmed at the scene by ambulance crews, resulted in death at emergency departments, life-threatening condition with occurrence of cardiac and/or pulmonary arrest (CPA, life-threatening condition without CPA, serious but not life-threatening condition, moderate condition, and mild condition. The sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios of the algorithm for categorizing A+ were calculated. Results The number of emergency dispatches over the six months was 73,992. Triage assessment was conducted for 68,692 of these calls. The study targets account for 88.8% of patients who were involved in triage calls. There were 2,349 cases where the patient had died or had suffered CPA. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio of the algorithm at predicting cases that would result in a death or CPA were 80.2% (95% confidence interval

  11. Coping with Self-Threat and the Evaluation of Self-Related Traits: An fMRI Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoefler, Andreas; Athenstaedt, Ursula; Corcoran, Katja; Ebner, Franz; Ischebeck, Anja

    2015-01-01

    A positive view of oneself is important for a healthy lifestyle. Self-protection mechanisms such as suppressing negative self-related information help us to maintain a positive view of ourselves. This is of special relevance when, for instance, a negative test result threatens our positive self-view. To date, it is not clear which brain areas support self-protective mechanisms under self-threat. In the present functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study the participants (N = 46) received a (negative vs. positive) performance test feedback before entering the scanner. In the scanner, the participants were instructed to ascribe personality traits either to themselves or to a famous other. Our results showed that participants responded slower to negative self-related traits compared to positive self-related traits. High self-esteem individuals responded slower to negative traits compared to low self-esteem individuals following a self-threat. This indicates that high self-esteem individuals engage more in self-enhancing strategies after a threat by inhibiting negative self-related information more successfully than low self-esteem individuals. This behavioral pattern was mirrored in the fMRI data as dACC correlated positively with trait self-esteem. Generally, ACC activation was attenuated under threat when participants evaluated self-relevant traits and even more for negative self-related traits. We also found that activation in the ACC was negatively correlated with response times, indicating that greater activation of the ACC is linked to better access (faster response) to positive self-related traits and to impaired access (slower response) to negative self-related traits. These results confirm the ACC function as important in managing threatened self-worth but indicate differences in trait self-esteem levels. The fMRI analyses also revealed a decrease in activation within the left Hippocampus and the right thalamus under threat. This indicates that a down

  12. Coping with Self-Threat and the Evaluation of Self-Related Traits: An fMRI Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Hoefler

    Full Text Available A positive view of oneself is important for a healthy lifestyle. Self-protection mechanisms such as suppressing negative self-related information help us to maintain a positive view of ourselves. This is of special relevance when, for instance, a negative test result threatens our positive self-view. To date, it is not clear which brain areas support self-protective mechanisms under self-threat. In the present functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI study the participants (N = 46 received a (negative vs. positive performance test feedback before entering the scanner. In the scanner, the participants were instructed to ascribe personality traits either to themselves or to a famous other. Our results showed that participants responded slower to negative self-related traits compared to positive self-related traits. High self-esteem individuals responded slower to negative traits compared to low self-esteem individuals following a self-threat. This indicates that high self-esteem individuals engage more in self-enhancing strategies after a threat by inhibiting negative self-related information more successfully than low self-esteem individuals. This behavioral pattern was mirrored in the fMRI data as dACC correlated positively with trait self-esteem. Generally, ACC activation was attenuated under threat when participants evaluated self-relevant traits and even more for negative self-related traits. We also found that activation in the ACC was negatively correlated with response times, indicating that greater activation of the ACC is linked to better access (faster response to positive self-related traits and to impaired access (slower response to negative self-related traits. These results confirm the ACC function as important in managing threatened self-worth but indicate differences in trait self-esteem levels. The fMRI analyses also revealed a decrease in activation within the left Hippocampus and the right thalamus under threat. This

  13. Contribution of Near Real Time MODIS-Based Forest Disturbance Detection Products to a National Forest Threat Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, J.; Hargrove, W. W.; Gasser, J.; Smoot, J.; Kuper, P.

    2011-12-01

    This presentation discusses an effort to compute and post weekly MODIS forest change products for the conterminous US (CONUS), as part of a web-based national forest threat early warning system (EWS) known as the U.S. Forest Change Assessment Viewer (FCAV). The US Forest Service, NASA, USGS, and ORNL are working collaboratively to contribute weekly change products to this EWS. Large acreages of the nation's forests are being disturbed by a growing multitude of biotic and abiotic threats that can act either singularly or in combination. When common at regional scales, such disturbances can pose hazards and threats to floral and faunal bio-diversity, ecosystem sustainability, ecosystem services, and human settlements across the conterminous US. Regionally evident forest disturbances range from ephemeral periodic canopy defoliation to stand replacement mortality events due to insects, disease, fire, hurricanes, tornadoes, ice, hail, and drought. Mandated by the Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003, this forest threat EWS has been actively developed since 2006 and on-line since 2010. The FCAV system employs 250-meter MODIS NDVI-based forest change products as a key element of the system, providing regional and CONUS scale products in near real time every 8 days. Each of our forest change products in FCAV is based on current versus historical 24 day composites of NDVI data gridded at 231.66 meter resolution. Current NDVI is derived from USGS eMODIS expedited products. MOD13 NDVI is used for constructing historical baselines. CONUS change products are computed for all forests as % change in the current versus historical NDVI for a given 24 day period. Change products are computed according to previous year, previous 3 year and previous 8 year historical baselines. The use of multiple baselines enables apparent forest disturbance anomalies to be more fully assessed. CONUS forest change products are posted each week on the FCAV, a web mapping service constructed and

  14. Forecasting Lightning Threat Using WRF Proxy Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaul, E. W., Jr.

    2010-01-01

    Objectives: Given that high-resolution WRF forecasts can capture the character of convective outbreaks, we seek to: 1. Create WRF forecasts of LTG threat (1-24 h), based on 2 proxy fields from explicitly simulated convection: - graupel flux near -15 C (captures LTG time variability) - vertically integrated ice (captures LTG threat area). 2. Calibrate each threat to yield accurate quantitative peak flash rate densities. 3. Also evaluate threats for areal coverage, time variability. 4. Blend threats to optimize results. 5. Examine sensitivity to model mesh, microphysics. Methods: 1. Use high-resolution 2-km WRF simulations to prognose convection for a diverse series of selected case studies. 2. Evaluate graupel fluxes; vertically integrated ice (VII). 3. Calibrate WRF LTG proxies using peak total LTG flash rate densities from NALMA; relationships look linear, with regression line passing through origin. 4. Truncate low threat values to make threat areal coverage match NALMA flash extent density obs. 5. Blend proxies to achieve optimal performance 6. Study CAPS 4-km ensembles to evaluate sensitivities.

  15. Narcissism and the self-evaluation maintenance model: effects of social comparison threats on relationship closeness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Emma; Stukas, Arthur A

    2011-01-01

    When threatened with an upward social comparison with a close other in a self-relevant domain, people may reduce either the self-relevance of the ability being compared or their perceived closeness to the other person (Tesser, 1988). Those high in the trait of narcissism may be more likely to push away others who outperform them. Participants and nominated close others completed online measures of narcissism, contingent self-worth, and relationship closeness. Subsequently, participants heard that their friend performed better (or equivalently) on a "competitive spirit" test. Participants higher in narcissism significantly reduced the closeness of their relationships after a threat but did not reduce the relevance of competitiveness to their self-worth.

  16. An Object Threat Assessment Method Based on Indefinite Multiple Attribute Decision Making

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Cui; SU Hai-bin; HOU Chao-zhen; WANG Xiao-yi

    2007-01-01

    On the basis of characteristics of threat assessment of aerial defense, a kind of MADM (multiple attribute decision making) method with unknown attribute weights and biased project on decision-maker is put forward. It can be used in dealing with the object threat assessment problem. A computing formula on project preference of decision-maker and one model of obtaining attribute optimization weight are set up. The method improves the veracity and reliability of computing object threat assessment, and the simulating result shows that this method is valid.

  17. A methodology for the evaluation of the turbine jet engine fragment threat to generic air transportable containers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harding, D.C.; Pierce, J.D.

    1993-06-01

    Uncontained, high-energy gas turbine engine fragments are a potential threat to air-transportable containers carried aboard jet aircraft. The threat to a generic example container is evaluated by probability analyses and penetration testing to demonstrate the methodology to be used in the evaluation of a specific container/aircraft/engine combination. Fragment/container impact probability is the product of the uncontained fragment release rate and the geometric probability that a container is in the path of this fragment. The probability of a high-energy rotor burst fragment from four generic aircraft engines striking one of the containment vessels aboard a transport aircraft is approximately 1.2 {times} 10{sup {minus}9} strikes/hour. Finite element penetration analyses and tests can be performed to identify specific fragments which have the potential to penetrate a generic or specific containment vessel. The relatively low probability of engine fragment/container impacts is primarily due to the low release rate of uncontained, hazardous jet engine fragments.

  18. Is the Movement of Evidence-based Practice a Real Threat to Music Therapy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masako Otera

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The author discusses what music therapists must work on to establish Evidence-based practice (EBP in music therapy by referring to Saito's discussion of the misunderstandings and various interpretations of Evidence-based medicine (EBM, the issue of Empirically Supported Treatments (ESTs in EBP in psychology (EBPP, and related discussions. Although the EBP movement tends to be recognized as a threat to music therapy, some recent discussions of EBM and EBP are encouraging for the development of EBP in music therapy. This paper shows that an integration of evidence of multiple types with clinical expertise and the individual needs in clients has become a consensus of EBP. However, the issues related to conducting Randomized controlled Trials (RCTs and employment of standardized treatment protocols in music therapy have persisted as difficult problems. Because the issue of EBP is very complex and easily biased, effective learning of this issue should be promoted among music therapists so that they can successfully relate to the EBP movement and bring benefits to the field of music therapy. The author suggests that incorporating the ideas of EBP positively into the field of music therapy and constructing methodologies and theories will enhance EBP.

  19. A reproductive threat-based model of evolved sex differences in jealousy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagarin, Brad J; Becker, D Vaughn; Guadagno, Rosanna E; Wilkinson, Wayne W; Nicastle, Lionel D

    2012-08-10

    Although heterosexual women and men consistently demonstrate sex differences in jealousy, these differences disappear among lesbians and gay men as well as among heterosexual women and men contemplating same-sex infidelities (infidelities in which the partner and rival are the same sex). Synthesizing these past findings, the present paper offers a reproductive threat-based model of evolved sex differences in jealousy that predicts that the sexes will differ only when the jealous perceivers' reproductive outcomes are differentially at risk. This model is supported by data from a web-based study in which lesbians, gay men, bisexual women and men, and heterosexual women and men responded to a hypothetical infidelity scenario with the sex of the rival randomly determined. After reading the scenario, participants indicated which type of infidelity (sexual versus emotional) would cause greater distress. Consistent with predictions, heterosexual women and men showed a sex difference when contemplating opposite-sex infidelities but not when contemplating same-sex infidelities, whereas lesbians and gay men showed no sex difference regardless of whether the infidelity was opposite-sex or same-sex.

  20. A Reproductive Threat-Based Model of Evolved Sex Differences in Jealousy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brad J. Sagarin

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Although heterosexual women and men consistently demonstrate sex differences in jealousy, these differences disappear among lesbians and gay men as well as among heterosexual women and men contemplating same-sex infidelities (infidelities in which the partner and rival are the same sex. Synthesizing these past findings, the present paper offers a reproductive threat-based model of evolved sex differences in jealousy that predicts that the sexes will differ only when the jealous perceivers' reproductive outcomes are differentially at risk. This model is supported by data from a web-based study in which lesbians, gay men, bisexual women and men, and heterosexual women and men responded to a hypothetical infidelity scenario with the sex of the rival randomly determined. After reading the scenario, participants indicated which type of infidelity (sexual versus emotional would cause greater distress. Consistent with predictions, heterosexual women and men showed a sex difference when contemplating opposite-sex infidelities but not when contemplating same-sex infidelities, whereas lesbians and gay men showed no sex difference regardless of whether the infidelity was opposite-sex or same-sex.

  1. Vulnerability of Water Resources under Climate and Land Use Change: Evaluation of Present and Future Threats for Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nachtnebel, Hans-Peter; Wesemann, Johannes; Herrnegger, Mathew; Senoner, Tobias; Schulz, Karsten

    2015-04-01

    vulnerability were developed. A comparison with existing data (River Basin Management Plan and Groundwater Chemistry Regulation) shows a good agreement between the elaborated maps and observations for the present state. The Overall Vulnerability is very low and low for most parts of Austria, especially in the forested alpine region. Bigger cities like Vienna, Graz and Linz show medium vulnerabilities, due to the high water demand and low ecosystem services. Only in the north-eastern and south-eastern part of the country some water supply associations with high and very high overall vulnerability exist. Groundwater recharge is quite small in these regions and the water quality is limited due to intense agriculture and possible threats through landfills. The developed framework allows an evaluation of water quantity and quality vulnerabilities for large scales for the present and the future. Including ecosystem services and gross value added an overall vulnerability can be determined.

  2. Self-compassion training modulates alpha-amylase, heart rate variability, and subjective responses to social evaluative threat in women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arch, Joanna J; Brown, Kirk Warren; Dean, Derek J; Landy, Lauren N; Brown, Kimberley D; Laudenslager, Mark L

    2014-04-01

    A growing body of research has revealed that social evaluative stressors trigger biological and psychological responses that in chronic forms have been linked to aging and disease. Recent research suggests that self-compassion may protect the self from typical defensive responses to evaluation. We investigated whether brief training in self-compassion moderated biopsychological responses to the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST) in women. Compared to attention (placebo) and no-training control conditions, brief self-compassion training diminished sympathetic (salivary alpha-amylase), cardiac parasympathetic, and subjective anxiety responses, though not HPA-axis (salivary cortisol) responses to the TSST. Self-compassion training also led to greater self-compassion under threat relative to the control groups. In that social stress pervades modern life, self-compassion represents a promising approach to diminishing its potentially negative psychological and biological effects.

  3. Self-compassion training modulates alpha-amylase, heart rate variability, and subjective responses to social evaluative threat in women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arch, Joanna J.; Brown, Kirk Warren; Dean, Derek J.; Landy, Lauren N.; Brown, Kimberley; Laudenslager, Mark L.

    2014-01-01

    A growing body of research has revealed that social evaluative stressors trigger biological and psychological responses that in chronic forms have been linked to aging and disease. Recent research suggests that self-compassion may protect the self from typical defensive responses to evaluation. We investigated whether brief training in self-compassion moderated biopsychological responses to the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST) in women. Compared to attention (placebo) and no-training control conditions, brief self-compassion training diminished sympathetic (salivary alpha-amylase), cardiac parasympathetic, and subjective anxiety responses, though not HPA-axis (salivary cortisol) responses to the TSST. Self-compassion training also led to greater self-compassion under threat relative to the control groups. In that social stress pervades modern life, self-compassion represents a promising approach to diminishing its potentially negative psychological and biological effects. PMID:24636501

  4. Model Based Threat and Vulnerability Analysis of E-Governance Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shilpi Saha

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The strategic and contemporary importance of e-governance has been recognized across the world. In India too, various ministries of Govt. of India and State Governments have taken e-governance initiatives to provide e-services to citizens and the business they serve. To achieve the mission objectives, and make such e-governance initiatives successful it would be necessary to improve the trust and confidence of the stakeholders. It is assumed that the delivery of government services will share the same public network information that is being used in the community at large. In particular, the Internet will be the principal means by which public access to government and government services will be achieved. To provide the security measures main aim is to identify all possible threats and vulnerabilities according to the data locations and then according to the models of Nath’s approach. Based on this analysis, the security requirements of the data and the applications have been formulated in the form of security parameters like confidentiality, integrity and availability. This analysis leads to the security architecture of the specific G2C application.

  5. Genetic influences on the neural and physiological bases of acute threat: A research domain criteria (RDoC) perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumner, Jennifer A; Powers, Abigail; Jovanovic, Tanja; Koenen, Karestan C

    2016-01-01

    The NIMH Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) initiative aims to describe key dimensional constructs underlying mental function across multiple units of analysis-from genes to observable behaviors-in order to better understand psychopathology. The acute threat ("fear") construct of the RDoC Negative Valence System has been studied extensively from a translational perspective, and is highly pertinent to numerous psychiatric conditions, including anxiety and trauma-related disorders. We examined genetic contributions to the construct of acute threat at two units of analysis within the RDoC framework: (1) neural circuits and (2) physiology. Specifically, we focused on genetic influences on activation patterns of frontolimbic neural circuitry and on startle, skin conductance, and heart rate responses. Research on the heritability of activation in threat-related frontolimbic neural circuitry is lacking, but physiological indicators of acute threat have been found to be moderately heritable (35-50%). Genetic studies of the neural circuitry and physiology of acute threat have almost exclusively relied on the candidate gene method and, as in the broader psychiatric genetics literature, most findings have failed to replicate. The most robust support has been demonstrated for associations between variation in the serotonin transporter (SLC6A4) and catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) genes with threat-related neural activation and physiological responses. However, unbiased genome-wide approaches using very large samples are needed for gene discovery, and these can be accomplished with collaborative consortium-based research efforts, such as those of the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC) and Enhancing Neuro Imaging Genetics through Meta-Analysis (ENIGMA) Consortium.

  6. Narcissistic responding to ego threat: when the status of the evaluator matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, Robert S; Sedikides, Constantine

    2009-10-01

    Narcissists and nonnarcissists were insulted by high-status and low-status evaluators and were given an opportunity to self-protect with a comparative (evaluator derogation; Experiment 1) and noncomparative (inflated state self-esteem; Experiments 1 and 2) strategy. Narcissists engaged in comparative self-protection indiscriminately (i.e., derogating both low-status and high-status evaluators), whereas nonnarcissists showed some mercy to low-status evaluators. With regard to noncomparative protection, the findings were consistent across studies: Evaluator status interacted with narcissism such that narcissists engaged in noncomparative self-protection more than nonnarcissists when the evaluator was high, but not low, in status. Evaluator status and, more generally, source of feedback are worth serious consideration when untangling the intricacies and flexibility of narcissistic self-protection.

  7. A Process Model for Deployment Planning of Ground-based Air Defense System Against Asymmetric Homeland Threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    A Process Model for Deployment Planning of Ground-based Air Defense System Against Asymmetric Homeland Threat Ronald L. Cypert Scientific...units, along with coordination at the state and federal agency level, a dynamic process modeling capability was chosen to chart the myriad...COVERED 00-00-2009 to 00-00-2009 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE A Process Model for Deployment Planning of Ground-based Air Defense System Against

  8. The effects of social evaluation and looming threat on self-attentional biases and social anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haikal, Muhammad; Hong, Ryan Y

    2010-04-01

    This paper examines how two proposed cognitive vulnerabilities of social anxiety, the fear of negative evaluation, and looming cognitive style may combine with socially demanding situations in predicting social anxiety symptoms and performance deficits. Fifty-two individuals previously identified as possessing these two cognitive vulnerabilities were randomly assigned to conditions in a 2 (high versus low social evaluation)x2 (high versus low temporal looming) experimental design. Significant interaction effects were found for: (a) residual change in anxiety symptoms from baseline level, and (b) performance on a speech task. Specifically, cognitively at-risk individuals exhibited the most increase in anxiety and the most performance deficits in the condition where social evaluation and temporal looming were high. In addition, a mediational effect of illusion of transparency (a form of self-attentional bias) between situational demands and residual change in anxiety was found. Implications arising from these results are discussed.

  9. Subjective Performance Evaluations, Self-esteem, and Ego-threats in Principal-agent Relations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sebald, Alexander Christopher; Walzl, Markus

    We conduct a laboratory experiment with agents working on and principals benefiting from a real effort task in which the agents' effort/performance can only be evaluated subjectively. Principals give subjective performance feedback to agents and agents have an opportunity to sanction principals. ...

  10. Gender-, Race-, and Income-Based Stereotype Threat: The Effects of Multiple Stigmatized Aspects of Identity on Math Performance and Working Memory Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tine, Michele; Gotlieb, Rebecca

    2013-01-01

    This study compared the relative impact of gender-, race-, and income-based stereotype threat and examined if individuals with multiple stigmatized aspects of identity experience a larger stereotype threat effect on math performance and working memory function than people with one stigmatized aspect of identity. Seventy-one college students of the…

  11. The Shoreline Video Assessment Method (S-VAM): Using dynamic hyperlapse image acquisition to evaluate shoreline mangrove forest structure, values, degradation and threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackenzie, Jock R; Duke, Norman C; Wood, Apanie L

    2016-08-30

    Climate change with human direct pressures represent significant threats to the resilience of shoreline habitats like mangroves. A rapid, whole-of-system assessment strategy is needed to evaluate such threats, better linking innovative remote sensing with essential on-ground evaluations. Using the Shoreline Video Assessment Method, we surveyed around 190km of the mostly mangrove-fringed (78%) coastline of Kien Giang Province, Vietnam. The aim was to identify anthropogenic drivers of degradation, establishing baseline for specific rehabilitation and protection strategies. Fish traps occupy at least 87% of shoreline mangroves, around which there were abundant human activities - like fishing, crabbing, farming, plus collecting firewood and foliage. Such livelihoods were associated with remnant, fringing mangrove that were largely degraded and threatened by erosion retreat, herbivory, and excessive cutting. Our assessment quantified associated threats to shoreline stability, along with previous rehabilitation intervention measures. The method offers key opportunities for effective conservation and management of vulnerable shoreline habitats.

  12. Trait Mindfulness Modulates Neuroendocrine and Affective Responses to Social Evaluative Threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Kirk Warren; Weinstein, Netta; Creswell, J. David

    2016-01-01

    Background Individual differences in mindfulness have been associated with numerous self-report indicators of stress, but research has not examined how mindfulness may buffer neuroendocrine and psychological stress responses under controlled laboratory conditions. The present study investigated the role of trait mindfulness in buffering cortisol and affective responses to a social evaluative stress challenge versus a control task. Methods Participants completed measures of trait mindfulness, perceived stress, anxiety, and fear of negative evaluation before being randomized to complete the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST; Kirschbaum et al., 1993) or a control task. At points throughout the session, participants provided five saliva samples to assess cortisol response patterns, and completed four self-report measures of anxiety and negative affect to assess psychological responses. Results In accord with hypotheses, higher trait mindfulness predicted lower cortisol responses to the TSST, relative to the control task, as well as lower anxiety and negative affect. These relations remained significant when controlling for the role of other variables that predicted cortisol and affective responses. Conclusions The findings suggest that trait mindfulness modulates cortisol and affective responses to an acute social stressor. Further research is needed to understand the neural pathways through which mindfulness impacts these responses. PMID:22626868

  13. Evaluating the protection levels of armoured vehicles for KE, mine and IED threats

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoeven, T.A.

    2010-01-01

    Based on providing protection to the occupants of armoured vehicles a NATO standard is under implementation (STANAG 4569). The aim of this agreement is to standardize protection levels for armoured vehicle occupants to ensure that: a. Commanders in the field can select the right equipment to fulfil

  14. Evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for maintaining biodiversity, securing habitats, and reducing threats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geldmann, Jonas

    on the effectiveness of protected areas in delivering either reduced habitat loss or improvements for species populations. Reviewing more than 2,500 articles I find that there are few studies and little evidence for protected areas effect on species populations, making it difficult to draw strong conclusion from...... already published works. For protected areas ability to reduce habitat loss the evidence is stronger, suggesting that protected areas have been able to reduce the rate of habitat loss compared to a counterfactual scenario. In chapter II we evaluate the different types of methods to assess management...... are effective compared to no protection, but also elutes to them not being a panacea for halting the loss of biodiversity. Both populations and habitats are overall decreasing while human pressure both inside and outside protected areas increases. However the results also suggest that management in protected...

  15. Attentional bias to pain and social threat in pediatric patients with functional abdominal pain and pain-free youth before and after performance evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Joy E; Lipani, Tricia A; Baber, Kari F; Dufton, Lynette; Garber, Judy; Smith, Craig A; Walker, Lynn S

    2011-05-01

    This study investigated attentional biases for pain and social threat versus neutral stimuli in 54 youth with functional abdominal pain (FAP) and 53 healthy control subjects (ages 10 to 16 years). We assessed attentional bias using a visual probe detection task (PDT) that presented pain and social threat words in comparison to neutral words at conscious (1250 ms) and preconscious (20 ms) presentation rates. We administered the PDT before and after random assignment of participants to a laboratory stressor--failure versus success feedback regarding their performance on a challenging computer game. All analyses controlled for trait anxiety. At the conscious rate of stimulus presentation, FAP patients exhibited preferential attention toward pain compared with neutral stimuli and compared with the control group. FAP patients maintained preferential attention toward conscious pain stimuli after performance feedback in both failure and success conditions. At the preconscious rate of stimulus presentation, FAP patients' attention was neutral at baseline but increased significantly toward pain stimuli after performance feedback in both failure and success conditions. FAP patients' somatic symptoms increased in both failure and success conditions; control youth's somatic symptoms only increased after failure. Regarding social threat, neither FAP nor control youth exhibited attentional bias toward social threat compared with neutral stimuli at baseline, but both FAP and control youth in the failure condition significantly increased attention away from social threat after failure feedback. Results suggest that FAP patients preferentially attend to pain stimuli in conscious awareness. Moreover, performance evaluation may activate their preconscious attention to pain stimuli.

  16. 雷达网对侦察无人机突防的威胁评估模型%Threat Evaluation Model of Radar Network Against Reconnaissance UAV Penetration

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王新增; 李俊山; 慈林林; 余宁

    2011-01-01

    雷达网对侦察无人机突防具有非常大的威胁,结合无人机的突防战术,建立了雷达网威胁评估指标体系框架;并根据雷达网性能指标的相对性、不可比性和不确定性,运用模糊综合评估方法和层次分析法对雷达网的威胁度进行评估,最后归并获得的评价结果.事实表明,所建立的模型能较准确地评估雷达网对侦察无人机突防的威胁程度,对侦察无人机航迹规划具有一定的指导意义.%The threat of Radar Network to UAV penetration is very great, combined temporal penetration of UAV, radar Network threat evaluation index system framework was established, according to the relativity, incompatibility and uncertainty of the radar network performance index, with Fuzzy integrated judgment and applied to evaluate the threat degree of radar network, The result is acquired finally by merging. The facts indicated that the model established can exactly evaluate the threat degree of radar network to penetration UAV. It's useful to the planning of UAV fight path.

  17. Overview of the Distributed Mission Training Integrated Threat Environment project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stytz, Martin R.; Banks, Sheila B.; Santos, Eugene, Jr.

    1998-08-01

    The Joint Synthetic Battlespace (JSB) envisioned within the Department of Defense modeling and simulation master plan requires a distributed virtual environment (DVE) wide consistent threat environment to achieve a useful mission rehearsal, training, test and evaluation capability. To achieve this objective, all threats in the DVE must appear at compatible levels of fidelity to all the entities operating in the DVE and they must interact with human- operated and computer-controlled entities in a realistic fashion. Achieving this goal is not currently possible for two reasons. First, each primary aircraft simulator training system developer has created their own threat system and made their own modeling decisions to support a specific user for a select few predetermined conditions. This traditional threat simulation approach is expensive and leads to ongoing difficulties in maintaining threat currency as intelligence updates are made, new weapons are introduced and new theaters of operation are identified. Second, the threat system interaction on a distributed network must be coordinated. The individualized nature of current threat systems precludes the possibility of introducing coordinated threats. The Distributed Mission Training Integrated Threat Environment (DMTITE) project is developing an effective solution to these issues. The DMTITE project is identifying the requirements for a distributed threat environment and building a demonstrator DOD High Level Architecture compatible system that can provide realistic threats for pilots to train against. The DMTITE prototype will instantiate a variety of threats for use in distributed training scenarios, including surface threats, air threats, radars, and jamming systems. A key element of the system will be the provision of realistic behaviors for the threat systems. We based DMTITE on a general software design methodology and software architecture for computer-generated forces (CGFs) that naturally supports `variety

  18. A review and meta-analysis of age-based stereotype threat: negative stereotypes, not facts, do the damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamont, Ruth A; Swift, Hannah J; Abrams, Dominic

    2015-03-01

    Stereotype threat effects arise when an individual feels at risk of confirming a negative stereotype about their group and consequently underperforms on stereotype relevant tasks (Steele, 2010). Among older people, underperformance across cognitive and physical tasks is hypothesized to result from age-based stereotype threat (ABST) because of negative age-stereotypes regarding older adults' competence. The present review and meta-analyses examine 22 published and 10 unpublished articles, including 82 effect sizes (N = 3882) investigating ABST on older people's (Mage = 69.5) performance. The analysis revealed a significant small-to-medium effect of ABST (d = .28) and important moderators of the effect size. Specifically, older adults are more vulnerable to ABST when (a) stereotype-based rather than fact-based manipulations are used (d = .52); (b) when performance is tested using cognitive measures (d = .36); and (c) occurs reliably when the dependent variable is measured proximally to the manipulation. The review raises important theoretical and methodological issues, and areas for future research.

  19. Categorizing threat : building and using a generic threat matrix.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woodard, Laura; Veitch, Cynthia K.; Thomas, Sherry Reede; Duggan, David Patrick

    2007-09-01

    The key piece of knowledge necessary for building defenses capable of withstanding or surviving cyber and kinetic attacks is an understanding of the capabilities posed by threats to a government, function, or system. With the number of threats continuing to increase, it is no longer feasible to enumerate the capabilities of all known threats and then build defenses based on those threats that are considered, at the time, to be the most relevant. Exacerbating the problem for critical infrastructure entities is the fact that the majority of detailed threat information for higher-level threats is held in classified status and is not available for general use, such as the design of defenses and the development of mitigation strategies. To reduce the complexity of analyzing threat, the threat space must first be reduced. This is achieved by taking the continuous nature of the threat space and creating an abstraction that allows the entire space to be grouped, based on measurable attributes, into a small number of distinctly different levels. The work documented in this report is an effort to create such an abstraction.

  20. Assessing Database and Network Threats in Traditional and Cloud Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katerina Lourida

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Cloud Computing is currently one of the most widely-spoken terms in IT. While it offers a range of technological and financial benefits, its wide acceptance by organizations is not yet wide spread. Security concerns are a main reason for this and this paper studies the data and network threats posed in both traditional and cloud paradigms in an effort to assert in which areas cloud computing addresses security issues and where it does introduce new ones. This evaluation is based on Microsoft’s STRIDE threat model and discusses the stakeholders, the impact and recommendations for tackling each threat.

  1. Multi-UCAV threat assessment of air combat situation based on MADM%基于MADM的多UCAV空战态势威胁评估

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张立鹏; 相猛

    2014-01-01

    Threat assessment model is established based on synthesiscly considering air UCAV situa-tion threat index and air combatcapability index. AHP is adopted to calculate threat proportion, MADM method is proposed with banded qualitative and quantitative together,TOPSIS and direct linearization pro-portion are adopted to threat assessment and threat sequencing, respectively. Lastly, realistic simulation reveals that this model which considered more comprehensive, argorithms hiberarchy clear, calculate shortcut, can be used effectively multi-UCAV threat assessment of air combat situation.%在综合考虑了UCAV态势威胁指数和空战能力指数的基础上,建立了威胁评估模型;采用层次分析法( AHP )对威胁权重进行了计算,提出了一种定性与定量相结合的多属性决策( MADM)方法,分别采用逼近于理想排序法( TOPSIS)和直接线性加权法进行了威胁评估和排序;最后给出了具体的仿真算例。计算结果表明,模型考虑的更加全面,算法层次清晰,计算快捷,可以实现高效的多UCAV空战威胁评估。

  2. Threat evaluation of air strike targets for warship formation networked air-defense operation%舰艇编队网络化防空作战空袭目标威胁评估

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    代进进; 李相民

    2013-01-01

    以舰艇编队网络化防空作战为背景,基于目标的攻击能力、攻击意图、攻击速度和舰舰相对价值给出了一种新的空袭目标威胁评估方法.首先根据编队当前任务以及各舰完成任务的能力、目标类型、敌我相对态势分别建立舰舰相对价值、目标攻击能力、攻击意图的量化模型;然后基于最大威判距离、目标攻击意图确定目标威胁等级划分方法;最后以目标飞临时间作为目标攻击速度的衡量指标,结合目标攻击能力、攻击意图以及舰舰相对价值建立目标对编队的威胁评估模型.仿真结果表明,该方法符合一般战术推理和经验判断,能较好地描述空袭目标威胁大小,可为编队网络化防空作战决策研究提供一定的参考.%In the background of warship formation networked air-defense operation, a new threat evaluation (TE) method of air strike targets is presented based on attacking ability, attacking intention, attacking speed of targets and relative value of ships. Firstly, the quantitative models of relative value, attacking ability, attacking intention are respectively established according to current task and ships' ability to complete the task, target types, relative situation. Secondly, the classification method of target threat level is determined based on maximum threat judgment distance and attacking intent of targets. Finally, a threat evaluation model is established by using the befallen time as an index to measure the target's attacking velocity and integrating with attacking ability, attacking intent and relative value. The simulation results show that the method is in accordance with generally tactical reasoning and experienced judgment, which can better describe the threat degree of air strike targets and provide some referenced value for the study on warship formation networked air-defense operational decision-making.

  3. 基于云参数贝叶斯网络的威胁评估方法%An Threat Assessment Method Based on Cloud Parameters Bayesian Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王巍

    2016-01-01

    For the disadvantages of lacking sample data of threat assessment and large workload of experts building Bayesian network,a threat assessment method based on cloud parameters Bayesian network is proposed. The method combines cloud model expression ability with Bayesian network inference ability. On the one hand,the cloud expression ability is used to build a Bayesian network parameters,on the other hand,the Bayesian network inference ability is applied to calculate the posterior probability. First,it uses expert knowledge to generate membership cloud parameters with the media of state combination weight and converts membership cloud to conditional proba-bility tables by the uncertainty of state combination weights,so as to achieve the purpose to build the assessment model in less workload of experts. Then use of Bayesian network of threat assessment built by experts and conditional probability table generated for threat assess-ment reasoning,the final evaluation results are obtained. The experiment shows that this method is generated in line with the experts ex-pected,and can be effectively applied to threat assessment.%文中以威胁评估为背景,针对威胁评估中样本数据不充足,专家构建贝叶斯网络参数工作量大的问题,提出了基于云参数贝叶斯网络的威胁评估方法。把云的表达能力与贝叶斯网络的推理能力相结合,一是运用云的表达能力构建贝叶斯网络参数,二是运用贝叶斯网络的推理能力计算后验概率。首先,以状态组合权值为媒介运用专家知识构建隶属云模型,并利用状态组合权值的不确定度将隶属云模型转换为条件概率表,从而达到以较少的专家工作完成评估模型构建的目的;其次,运用专家构建的威胁评估贝叶斯网络和生成的条件概率表进行威胁评估推理,得到最终的评估结果。实验结果表明,该方法生成的条件概率表的统计数据与专家知识相符

  4. Threat-based cognitive biases in anxious children: comparison with non-anxious children before and after cognitive behavioural treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waters, Allison M; Wharton, Trisha A; Zimmer-Gembeck, Melanie J; Craske, Michelle G

    2008-03-01

    Attention and interpretation biases for threat stimuli were assessed in 19 anxious (ANX) children before and after cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), and compared with responses from 19 non-anxious (NA) control children collected over the same period. Attentional bias was assessed using a picture version of the visual probe task with threat, neutral and pleasant pictures. Threat interpretation bias was assessed using both a homographs task in which children used homograph words in a sentence and their neutral or threatening meaning was assessed, and a stories task in which children rated their negative emotion, danger judgments, and influencing ability in ambiguous situations. ANX children showed attention biases towards threat on the visual probe task and threat interpretation biases on the stories task but not the homographs task at pre-treatment in comparison with NA children. Following treatment, ANX children's threat interpretation biases as assessed on the stories task reduced significantly to within levels comparable to NA children. However, ANX children continued to show larger attentional biases towards threat than pleasant pictures on the visual probe task at post-treatment, whereas NA children did not show attentional biases. Moreover, a residual threat interpretation style on the stories task at post-treatment was associated with higher anxiety symptoms in both ANX and NA children.

  5. Demonstration of a Robot-Based Raman Spectroscopic Detector for the Identification of CBE Threat Agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-11-01

    Nerve Agent Simulant Bacillus thuringiensis - Anthrax Simulant O ffs et In te ns ity Fig. 5. Average Raman spectra of several CBE simulants taken on...This model was evaluated using a simulant for anthrax, B. thuringiensis (Bt) spores, and a biological toxin simulant, ovalbumin. This modeling...Sulfur Mustard Simulant 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 2100 2300 2500 2700 2900 3100 DMMP – G-Type Nerve Agent Simulant Bacillus thuringiensis

  6. Model description and evaluation of the mark-recapture survival model used to parameterize the 2012 status and threats analysis for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langtimm, Catherine A.; Kendall, William L.; Beck, Cathy A.; Kochman, Howard I.; Teague, Amy L.; Meigs-Friend, Gaia; Peñaloza, Claudia L.

    2016-11-30

    This report provides supporting details and evidence for the rationale, validity and efficacy of a new mark-recapture model, the Barker Robust Design, to estimate regional manatee survival rates used to parameterize several components of the 2012 version of the Manatee Core Biological Model (CBM) and Threats Analysis (TA).  The CBM and TA provide scientific analyses on population viability of the Florida manatee subspecies (Trichechus manatus latirostris) for U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s 5-year reviews of the status of the species as listed under the Endangered Species Act.  The model evaluation is presented in a standardized reporting framework, modified from the TRACE (TRAnsparent and Comprehensive model Evaluation) protocol first introduced for environmental threat analyses.  We identify this new protocol as TRACE-MANATEE SURVIVAL and this model evaluation specifically as TRACE-MANATEE SURVIVAL, Barker RD version 1. The longer-term objectives of the manatee standard reporting format are to (1) communicate to resource managers consistent evaluation information over sequential modeling efforts; (2) build understanding and expertise on the structure and function of the models; (3) document changes in model structures and applications in response to evolving management objectives, new biological and ecological knowledge, and new statistical advances; and (4) provide greater transparency for management and research review.

  7. A developmental perspective on the Virginia Student Threat Assessment Guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornell, Dewey G

    2011-01-01

    The Virginia Student Threat Assessment Guidelines were developed to help multidisciplinary school-based teams use a decision tree to evaluate student threats and take appropriate preventive action. A main goal of this approach is to allow school-based teams to recognize and respond to the developmental complexities of children and adolescents without resorting to the use of zero tolerance discipline. The model takes a triage approach that involves progressively more extensive assessment and intervention according to the severity of the threat and the student's intentions. The article summarizes two field test studies of the model, a study of training effects on staff attitudes and knowledge about violence prevention, and a quasi-experimental study showing that secondary schools using the model enjoyed a more positive school climate characterized by less bullying and greater willingness among students to seek help for threats of violence.

  8. Airborne Particulate Threat Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patrick Treado; Oksana Klueva; Jeffrey Beckstead

    2008-12-31

    Aerosol threat detection requires the ability to discern between threat agents and ambient background particulate matter (PM) encountered in the environment. To date, Raman imaging technology has been demonstrated as an effective strategy for the assessment of threat agents in the presence of specific, complex backgrounds. Expanding our understanding of the composition of ambient particulate matter background will improve the overall performance of Raman Chemical Imaging (RCI) detection strategies for the autonomous detection of airborne chemical and biological hazards. Improving RCI detection performance is strategic due to its potential to become a widely exploited detection approach by several U.S. government agencies. To improve the understanding of the ambient PM background with subsequent improvement in Raman threat detection capability, ChemImage undertook the Airborne Particulate Threat Assessment (APTA) Project in 2005-2008 through a collaborative effort with the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), under cooperative agreement number DE-FC26-05NT42594. During Phase 1 of the program, a novel PM classification based on molecular composition was developed based on a comprehensive review of the scientific literature. In addition, testing protocols were developed for ambient PM characterization. A signature database was developed based on a variety of microanalytical techniques, including scanning electron microscopy, FT-IR microspectroscopy, optical microscopy, fluorescence and Raman chemical imaging techniques. An automated particle integrated collector and detector (APICD) prototype was developed for automated collection, deposition and detection of biothreat agents in background PM. During Phase 2 of the program, ChemImage continued to refine the understanding of ambient background composition. Additionally, ChemImage enhanced the APICD to provide improved autonomy, sensitivity and specificity. Deliverables included a Final Report detailing our

  9. BioSense/SR-BioSpectra demonstrations of wide area/early warning for bioaerosol threats: program description and early test and evaluation results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simard, Jean-Robert; Buteau, Sylvie; Lahaie, Pierre; Mathieu, Pierre; Roy, Gilles; Nadeau, Denis; McFee, John; Ho, Jim; Rowsell, Susan; Ho, Nicolas; Babin, François; Cantin, Daniel; Healey, Dave; Robinson, Jennifer; Wood, Scott; Hsu, Jack

    2011-11-01

    Threats associated with bioaerosol weapons have been around for several decades and have been mostly associated with terrorist activities or rogue nations. Up to the turn of the millennium, defence concepts against such menaces relied mainly on point or in-situ detection technologies. Over the last 10 years, significant efforts have been deployed by multiple countries to supplement the limited spatial coverage of a network of one or more point bio-detectors using lidar technology. The addition of such technology makes it possible to detect within seconds suspect aerosol clouds over area of several tens of square kilometers and track their trajectories. These additional capabilities are paramount in directing presumptive ID missions, mapping hazardous areas, establishing efficient counter-measures and supporting subsequent forensic investigations. In order to develop such capabilities, Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC) and the Chemical, Biological, Radiological-Nuclear, and Explosives Research and Technology Initiative (CRTI) have supported two major demonstrations based on spectrally resolved Laser Induced Fluorescence (LIF) lidar: BioSense, aimed at defence military missions in wide open spaces, and SR-BioSpectra, aimed at surveillance of enclosed or semienclosed wide spaces common to defence and public security missions. This article first reviews briefly the modeling behind these demonstration concepts. Second, the lidar-adapted and the benchtop bioaerosol LIF chambers (BSL1), developed to challenge the constructed detection systems and to accelerate the population of the library of spectral LIF properties of bioaerosols and interferents of interest, will be described. Next, the most recent test and evaluation (T&E) results obtained with SR-BioSpectra and BioSense are reported. Finally, a brief discussion stating the way ahead for a complete defence suite is provided.

  10. Are Standards-Based Quality Systems a Threat to the Internationalization of Teaching and Learning?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson-Whiteside, Scott

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores the current shift in Australia's higher education system moving to a more explicit, standards-based quality system and its potential impact on international partnerships in teaching and learning, particularly in Asia. The new Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency and the underlying Higher Education Standards Framework…

  11. Theory-Based Stakeholder Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Morten Balle; Vedung, Evert

    2010-01-01

    This article introduces a new approach to program theory evaluation called theory-based stakeholder evaluation or the TSE model for short. Most theory-based approaches are program theory driven and some are stakeholder oriented as well. Practically, all of the latter fuse the program perceptions of the various stakeholder groups into one unitary…

  12. Interleaving Commands: a Threat to the Interoperability of Smartcard Based Security Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Talamo, Maurizio; Schunck, Christian H; Arcieri, Franco

    2012-01-01

    Although smartcards are widely used, secure smartcard interoperability has remained a significant challenge. Usually each manufacturer provides a closed environment for their smartcard based applications including the microchip, associated firmware and application software. While the security of this "package" can be tested and certified for example based on the Common Criteria, the secure and convenient interoperability with other smartcards and smartcard applications is not guaranteed. Ideally one would have a middleware that can support various smartcards and smartcard applications. In our ongoing research we study this scenario with the goal to develop a way to certify secure smartcard interoperability in such an environment. Here we discuss and experimentally demonstrate one critical security problem: if several smartcards are connected via a middleware it is possible that a smartcard of type S receives commands that were supposed to be executed on a different smartcard of type S'. Such "external command...

  13. A System for Discovering Bioengineered Threats by Knowledge Base Driven Mining of Toxin Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-08-01

    been laid on the similarity of Thermolysin and Neprilysin which are known zinc binding proteases. The latter set, although a couple 23 of studies...sequence of Endoglucanase since it is an important protein that binds to cellulose, as well as having a multidomain enzymatic characteristic. A sequence...developed. Our approach is based on identifying Sortal anaphors to extract proximal toxin names. We also extract protein- 28 protein interactions

  14. The development of Army relevant peptide-based surface enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) sensors for biological threat detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Mikella E.; Strobbia, Pietro; Sarkes, Deborah A.; Stratis-Cullum, Dimitra N.; Cullum, Brian M.; Pellegrino, Paul M.

    2016-05-01

    The utility of peptide-based molecular sensing for the development of novel biosensors has resulted in a significant increase in their development and usage for sensing targets like chemical, biological, energetic and toxic materials. Using peptides as a molecular recognition element is particularly advantageous because there are several mature peptide synthesis protocols that already exist, peptide structures can be tailored, selected and manipulated to be highly discerning towards desired targets, peptides can be modified to be very stable in a host of environments and stable under many different conditions, and through the development of bifunctionalized peptides can be synthesized to also bind onto desired sensing platforms (various metal materials, glass, etc.). Two examples of the several Army relevant biological targets for peptide-based sensing platforms include Ricin and Abrin. Ricin and Abrin are alarming threats because both can be weaponized and there is no antidote for exposure. Combining the sensitivity of SERS with the selectivity of a bifunctional peptide allows for the emergence of dynamic hazard sensor for Army application.

  15. World's soils are under threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montanarella, Luca; Pennock, Daniel Jon; McKenzie, Neil; Badraoui, Mohamed; Chude, Victor; Baptista, Isaurinda; Mamo, Tekalign; Yemefack, Martin; Singh Aulakh, Mikha; Yagi, Kazuyuki; Hong, Suk Young; Vijarnsorn, Pisoot; Zhang, Gan-Lin; Arrouays, Dominique; Black, Helaina; Krasilnikov, Pavel; Sobocká, Jaroslava; Alegre, Julio; Henriquez, Carlos Roberto; de Lourdes Mendonça-Santos, Maria; Taboada, Miguel; Espinosa-Victoria, David; AlShankiti, Abdullah; Kazem AlaviPanah, Sayed; El Mustafa Elsheikh, Elsiddig Ahmed; Hempel, Jon; Camps Arbestain, Marta; Nachtergaele, Freddy; Vargas, Ronald

    2016-02-01

    The Intergovernmental Technical Panel on Soils has completed the first State of the World's Soil Resources Report. Globally soil erosion was identified as the gravest threat, leading to deteriorating water quality in developed regions and to lowering of crop yields in many developing regions. We need to increase nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer use in infertile tropical and semi-tropical soils - the regions where the most food insecurity among us are found - while reducing global use of these products overall. Stores of soil organic carbon are critical in the global carbon balance, and national governments must set specific targets to stabilize or ideally increase soil organic carbon stores. Finally the quality of soil information available for policy formulation must be improved - the regional assessments in the State of the World's Soil Resources Report frequently base their evaluations on studies from the 1990s based on observations made in the 1980s or earlier.

  16. Knowledge and Attitudes of Ugandan Preservice Science and Mathematics Teachers toward Global and Ugandan Science--and Technology-Based Problems and/or Threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Michael; Tibanyendera, Basil; Seltzer-Kelly, Debbie

    2007-01-01

    This article reports the effects of a science, technology, and society (STS) teaching approach on the knowledge and attitudes of preservice science and mathematics teachers in Uganda toward global science and technology-based problems and/or threats. The responses of a baseline or control group (N = 50) and an experimental group (N = 50) to five…

  17. Inducing Attitude Change toward Online Gaming among Adolescent Players Based on Dissonance Theory: The Role of Threats and Justification of Effort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Chin-Sheng; Chiou, Wen-Bin

    2010-01-01

    The negative impact of online gaming on adolescents has received much attention. The question of how to reduce their pathological use of online gaming is a critical issue. Based on the concept of external justification in dissonance theory, this experimental study aimed to examine whether severity of threat and justification of effort would impact…

  18. Are Standards-based Quality Systems a Threat to the Internationalization of Teaching and Learning?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott Thompson-Whiteside

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the current shift in Australia’s higher education system moving to a more explicit, standards-based quality system and its potential impact on international partnerships in teaching and learning, particularly in Asia. The new Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency and the underlying Higher Education Standards Framework have the potential to threaten a large number of transnational or cross-border programs delivered outside of Australia. With over one hundred and fifty thousand tertiary students studying Australian programs in Asia, the impact could be significant. It would also be significant for countries that leverage of Australian Universities to build human capacity within their country. The paper highlights the current practice of assuring equivalent and comparable academic standards in transnational education and explores how shifting to a more precise standards framework will require more explicit demonstration of standards across teaching, learning and student outcomes. If equivalent or comparable standards were to be achieved across the whole standards framework, it is likely to constrain the opportunities for internationalization and the formation of new transnational partnerships.

  19. Stereotype threat and arousal: effects on women's math performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Laurie T; Crandall, Christian S

    2003-06-01

    Theories of arousal suggest that arousal should decrease performance on difficult tasks and increase performance on easy tasks. An experiment tested the hypothesis that the effects of stereotype threat on performance are due to heightened arousal. The authors hypothesized that telling participants that a math test they are about to take is known to have gender differences would cause stereotype threat in women but not in men. In the experiment, each participant took two tests--a difficult math test and an easy math test. Compared to women in a "no differences" condition, women in the "gender differences" condition scored better on the easy math test and worse on the difficult math test. Men's performance was unaffected by the manipulation. These data are consistent with an arousal-based explanation of stereotype threat effects. Data were inconsistent with expectancy, evaluation apprehension, and persistence explanations of the stereotype threat phenomenon.

  20. Cyber threat metrics.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frye, Jason Neal; Veitch, Cynthia K.; Mateski, Mark Elliot; Michalski, John T.; Harris, James Mark; Trevino, Cassandra M.; Maruoka, Scott

    2012-03-01

    Threats are generally much easier to list than to describe, and much easier to describe than to measure. As a result, many organizations list threats. Fewer describe them in useful terms, and still fewer measure them in meaningful ways. This is particularly true in the dynamic and nebulous domain of cyber threats - a domain that tends to resist easy measurement and, in some cases, appears to defy any measurement. We believe the problem is tractable. In this report we describe threat metrics and models for characterizing threats consistently and unambiguously. The purpose of this report is to support the Operational Threat Assessment (OTA) phase of risk and vulnerability assessment. To this end, we focus on the task of characterizing cyber threats using consistent threat metrics and models. In particular, we address threat metrics and models for describing malicious cyber threats to US FCEB agencies and systems.

  1. Stereotype threat and executive functions: which functions mediate different threat-related outcomes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rydell, Robert J; Van Loo, Katie J; Boucher, Kathryn L

    2014-03-01

    Stereotype threat research shows that women's math performance can be reduced by activating gender-based math stereotypes. Models of stereotype threat assert that threat reduces cognitive functioning, thereby accounting for its negative effects. This work provides a more detailed understanding of the cognitive processes through which stereotype threat leads women to underperform at math and to take risks, by examining which basic executive functions (inhibition, shifting, and updating) account for these outcomes. In Experiments 1 and 2, women under threat showed reduced inhibition, reduced updating, and reduced math performance compared with women in a control condition (or men); however, only updating accounted for women's poor math performance under threat. In Experiment 3, only updating accounted for stereotype threat's effect on women's math performance, whereas only inhibition accounted for the effect of threat on risk-taking, suggesting that distinct executive functions can account for different stereotype threat-related outcomes.

  2. Stereotype threat and female communication styles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Hippel, Courtney; Wiryakusuma, Cindy; Bowden, Jessica; Shochet, Megan

    2011-10-01

    A large body of research has documented the performance-debilitating effects of stereotype threat for individuals, but there is a paucity of research exploring interpersonal consequences of stereotype threat. Two experiments tested the hypothesis that stereotype threat would change the style in which women communicate. Results indicate that women who experience stereotype threat regarding leadership abilities react against the stereotype by adopting a more masculine communication style. Study 2 provides evidence that self-affirmation eliminates this effect of stereotype threat on women's communication styles. A third study demonstrates an ironic consequence of this effect of stereotype threat on women's communication--when women under stereotype threat adopt a more masculine communication style, they are rated as less warm and likeable, and evaluators indicate less willingness to comply with their requests. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.

  3. 基于DBN的空间战场目标威胁评估%Threat Assessment for Space Battlefield Targets Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周立新; 李智

    2011-01-01

    空间战场目标威胁评估对未来空间作战指挥决策具有重要的意义,探讨了空间战场的特点及空间战场威胁目标的特点.针对静态贝叶斯网络(Bayesian network,BN)无法有效地解决动态空间战场中目标的威胁评估问题,提出利用动态贝叶斯网络(dynamic Bayesian network,DBN)来解决空间战场目标威胁评估,建立了基于DBN的空间战场目标威胁评估模型,利用所建立的模型进行了仿真计算.研究结果证明,基于DBN的空间战场目标威胁评估模型能够适应战场形势的变化,可应用于未来空间战场目标威胁评估专家系统的开发,并且比利用静态BN得出的威胁程度更准确,可靠性更高.%Threat assessment of space battlefield targets has great meaning for command and decision-making in the future space operation. The paper discusses the characteristics of space battlefield and space threat targets. Aiming at the problem of threat assessment that is not well solved by Bayes-ian network (BN) in the dynamic space battlefield, a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) theory is introduced. After that, a DBN-based threat assessment model for space operation is constructed; then, the paper performs a simulation using the proposed model. The simulation result shows that the DBN-based threat assessment model is adaptive to the dynamic change in the battlefield; it can be used in the process of developing the expert system in the future space operation. What is more, the DBN-- based threat assessment model is more effective and reliable to reflect the real threat level than the Bayesian network model.

  4. 基于ARIMA模型的网络安全威胁态势预测方法%Forecasting network security threat situation based on ARIMA model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李凯; 曹阳

    2012-01-01

    In order to solving the difficulty of forecasting the variation trend of the network security threat situation. The paper proposed a forecasting method based on the ARJMA model, which made use of the data of network security threat situation having the feature of time series. Firstly, this method analysed the information of services, leaks, and vulnerabilities and so on which were related to the network security. After this, the paper computed the network security threat situation reasonably. Based on that, forecasting the variation trend of the network security threat situation used a ARIMA model. The experiment results show that this method not only can reflect the true variation trend of network security threat situation,but also its prediction accuracy is higher.%针对网络安全威胁态势变化趋势预测的困难性,利用网络安全威胁态势值具有时间序列的特点,提出了一种基于ARIMA的模型的网络安全威胁态势预测方法.该方法首先分析服务、漏洞、弱点等与网络安全相关的信息,合理地计算出网络安全威胁态势值,进而使用ARIMA模型的预测方法对所得序列的变化趋势进行预测.实验结果表明,该方法不仅能够反映真实的网络安全威胁态势的变化趋势,而且其预测的精度也较高.

  5. Research on Threat Traceback Method Based on IDS Alarms and Rootkit%基于IDS报警和rootkit的威胁溯源方法研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    夏坤鹏; 谢正勇; 崔伟

    2015-01-01

    随着互联网应用的普及和不断深入,网络威胁也给人们的工作和生活带来了重大挑战.为了应对这些挑战,给广大网民营造一个安全、可信的互联网环境,文章研究了威胁信息溯源问题,分析了现有威胁溯源方法存在的不足,从实践角度出发提出了一种基于入侵检测系统报警信息和rootkit的威胁溯源方案.文章设定了本方案的假设条件,分析了该方案的可行性,指出了方案面临的挑战.%With the popularization and development of Internet application, Internet-based network threat has posed a serious challenge to everyone's work and life. In order to deal with this challenge as well as create a safe and trusted Internet environment for the cyber citizens, this paper reads up the problem of threat information traceback, analyzes the drawbacks of the existing method of threat traceback, proposes a threat traceback scheme which is based on the alarms of intrusion detection system and rootkit technology. This paper sets up the assumption of the scheme according to the fact when traceback threat, analyzes the feasibility, proposes the challenge.

  6. Target threat assessment using fuzzy sets theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehsan Azimirad

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The threat evaluation is significant component in target classification process and is significant in military and non military applications. Small errors or mistakes in threat evaluation and target classification especial in military applications can result in huge damage of life and property. Threat evaluation helps in case of weapon assignment, and intelligence sensor support system. It is very important factor to analyze the behavior of enemy tactics as well as our surveillance. This paper represented a precise description of the threat evaluation process using fuzzy sets theory. A review has been carried out regarding which parameters that have been suggested for threat value calculation. For the first time in this paper, eleven parameters are introduced for threat evaluation so that this parameters increase the accuracy in designed system. The implemented threat evaluation system has been applied to a synthetic air defense scenario and four real time dynamic air defense scenarios. The simulation results show the correctness, accuracy, reliability and minimum errors in designing of threat evaluation system

  7. A Security Threats Identification and Analysis Method Based on Attack Graph%一种基于攻击图的安全威胁识别和分析方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴迪; 连一峰; 陈恺; 刘玉岭

    2012-01-01

    Business system's security management needs to assess the system security situation by using network attack graph. It also needs to analyze the threats exploiting security vulnerabilities. Current security threat identification and analysis methods cannot handle the upper two problems very well at the same time. It cannot handle uncertainties occurred in the process of vulnerability exploiting threat analysis, either. A security threat identification and analysis method is proposed in this paper. The network attack graph is defined via Colored Petri Net (CPN) and an algorithm named NAGG is proposed to construct network attack graph based on the simulation results. We also give an algorithm named NAGD to simultaneously decompose network attack graph into several sub-attack-graphs, each corresponding to a specific vulnerability exploiting threat. The graph is loop-free and its longest attack path is limited to a certain predefined value. In order to prioritize all security threats for disposal, a vulnerability exploiting threat evaluating method named VETE is given to convert sub-attack graph into uncertain inference rule set. This method uses D-S evidence inference engine to calculate threat degree of each threat corresponding to the sub-attack-graph. At last, a typical Web application system is used as an example to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.%业务系统安全管理需要网络攻击图来评估系统整体安全性或态势,同时又需要对那些可能严重危害系统安全的脆弱性利用威胁进行重点分析和优先处置.现有安全威胁识别和分析方法无法兼顾这两个方面,也无法处理脆弱性利用威胁分析过程中的不确定性问题.作者提出了一种安全威胁识别和分析方法.利用颜色Petri网(CPN)定义网络攻击图,并给出了网络攻击图生成NAGG算法,根据攻击模型分析结果生成网络攻击图;给出了基于CPN仿真的网络攻击图分解NAGD算法,可一次性

  8. Threats to Mediterranean rangelands: a case study based on the views of citizens in the Viotia prefecture, Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyriazopoulos, Apostolos P; Arabatzis, Garyfallos; Abraham, Eleni M; Parissi, Zoi M

    2013-11-15

    Rangelands in Greece constitute a very important natural resource as they occupy 40% of the total surface. Not only is their forage production essential for the development of extensive livestock farming, but also they play a key role in outdoor recreational activities, protection from erosion, provision of water supplies and biodiversity conservation. However, land use changes, inappropriate management and wildfires threaten their existence. The research was conducted among the citizens of Viotia prefecture, an area close to Athens, Greece, using personal interviews with a structured questionnaire in 2008. The aim was to record citizens' opinions regarding the threats to rangelands. The results suggest that the main threats as perceived by the respondents, are land use changes especially for urban development, and wildfires. The application of cluster analysis highlighted the differentiation among the respondents in ranking these threats. The more ecologically aware citizens recognised that mismanagement, abandonment and agriculture also threaten rangelands. These threats can have a considerable impact on the lives of the local people. Policy makers and managers should take the opinions of local citizens into consideration, and engage them in decision making so that sustainable management policies could be applied.

  9. Investigating the genetic and environmental bases of biases in threat recognition and avoidance in children with anxiety problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lau Jennifer Y F

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Adults with anxiety show biased categorization and avoidance of threats. Such biases may emerge through complex interplay between genetics and environments, occurring early in life. Research on threat biases in children has focuses on a restricted range of biases, with insufficient focus on genetic and environmental origins. Here, we explore differences between children with and without anxiety problems in under-studied areas of threat bias. We focused both on associations with anxious phenotype and the underlying gene-environmental correlates for two specific processes: the categorisation of threat faces and avoidance learning. Method Two-hundred and fifty 10-year old MZ and DZ twin pairs (500 individuals completed tasks assessing accuracy in the labelling of threatening facial expressions and in the acquisition of avoidant responses to a card associated with a masked threatening face. To assess whether participants met criteria for an anxiety disorder, parents of twins completed a self-guided computerized version of the Development and Well-being Assessment (DAWBA. Comparison of MZ and DZ twin correlations using model-fitting were used to compute estimates of genetic, shared and non-shared environmental effects. Results Of the 500 twins assessed, 25 (5% met diagnostic criteria for a current anxiety disorder. Children with anxiety disorders were more accurate in their ability to recognize disgust faces than those without anxiety disorders, but were commensurate on identifying other threatening face emotions (angry, fearful, sad. Children with anxiety disorders but also more strongly avoided selecting a conditioned stimulus than non-anxious children. While recognition of socially threatening faces was moderately heritable, avoidant responses were heavily influenced by the non-shared environment. Conclusion These data add to other findings on threat biases in anxious children. Specifically, we found biases in the labelling of

  10. Explanation Based Generalisation = Partial Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harmelen, van F.A.H.; Bundy, A.

    1988-01-01

    We argue that explanation-based generalisation as recently proposed in the machine learning literature is essentially equivalent to partial evaluation, a well known technique in the functional and logic programming literature. We show this equivalence by analysing the definitions and underlying algo

  11. MTA Computer Based Evaluation System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, Lisa P.; And Others

    The MTA PLATO-based evaluation system, which has been implemented by a consortium of schools of medical technology, is designed to be general-purpose, modular, data-driven, and interactive, and to accommodate other national and local item banks. The system provides a comprehensive interactive item-banking system in conjunction with online student…

  12. IT safety in production data networks (PDN). Tracking, evaluation and elimination of safety threats; IT-Sicherheit in Produktionsnetzen (PDN). Aufspueren, einschaetzen und beseitigen von Sicherheitsbedrohungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neider, Ulrich [DETACK GmbH, Ludwigsburg (Germany)

    2013-03-01

    This contribution reports on the threats of production data networks. Within the context of the IT security, the risks of production data networks are not only based on a possible contamination by computer viruses. The author of this contribution increases awareness of dangers to whose production systems are faced. The author also presents a phase model from his own consulting practice in order to increase the safety of production data systems by implementation of a safety control. This phase model consists of the six following steps: (a) Stock taking of the state of the art; (b) Determination of the target (development of a safety concept); (c) Creation of an IT safety policy; (d) Application of IT safety policy; (e) Audit of the results (IT safety audit); (f) Regular safety tests.

  13. Information security threats and an easy-to-implement attack detection framework for wireless sensor network-based smart grid applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuna, G.; Örenbaş, H.; Daş, R.; Kogias, D.; Baykara, M.; K, K.

    2016-03-01

    Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) when combined with various energy harvesting solutions managing to prolong the overall lifetime of the system and enhanced capabilities of the communication protocols used by modern sensor nodes are efficiently used in are efficiently used in Smart Grid (SG), an evolutionary system for the modernization of existing power grids. However, wireless communication technology brings various types of security threats. In this study, firstly the use of WSNs for SG applications is presented. Second, the security related issues and challenges as well as the security threats are presented. In addition, proposed security mechanisms for WSN-based SG applications are discussed. Finally, an easy- to-implement and simple attack detection framework to prevent attacks directed to sink and gateway nodes with web interfaces is proposed and its efficiency is proved using a case study.

  14. 基于TOPSIS的战区高层反导威胁评估%Threat Assessment of the High Altitude Area Ballistic Missile Defense Based on TOPSIS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    范学渊; 邢清华; 黄沛; 王小光

    2012-01-01

    Firstly, the characteristics of the high altitude area ballistic missile defense' s threat assessment are analyzed. Then the threat assessment's model index system is set up and quantitated, such as launch position of tactical ballistic missile (TBM) , forecasting impact point, range and so on. Finally, the theory of technique for order preference by similarity to idea solution (TOPSIS) based on weight of entropy is used to compute the model. The result shows that the threat assessment' s model and the algorithm is effective and useful for developing the battle manage of the high altitude area ballistic missile defense ' s.%在分析战区高层反导威胁评估特点的基础上,建立了以来袭TBM发射点、预测落点、射程等为核心的战区高层反导威胁评估模型指标体系并进行了相应的量化,然后利用基于熵值权重确定的TOPSIS理论对模型进行求解.通过实例证明所提出的战区高层反导威胁评估模型和算法的有效性,对研究美军的战区高层反导武器系统具有一定的借鉴意义.

  15. Asymmetric threat data mining and knowledge discovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmore, John F.; Pagels, Michael A.; Palk, Justin

    2001-03-01

    Asymmetric threats differ from the conventional force-on- force military encounters that the Defense Department has historically been trained to engage. Terrorism by its nature is now an operational activity that is neither easily detected or countered as its very existence depends on small covert attacks exploiting the element of surprise. But terrorism does have defined forms, motivations, tactics and organizational structure. Exploiting a terrorism taxonomy provides the opportunity to discover and assess knowledge of terrorist operations. This paper describes the Asymmetric Threat Terrorist Assessment, Countering, and Knowledge (ATTACK) system. ATTACK has been developed to (a) data mine open source intelligence (OSINT) information from web-based newspaper sources, video news web casts, and actual terrorist web sites, (b) evaluate this information against a terrorism taxonomy, (c) exploit country/region specific social, economic, political, and religious knowledge, and (d) discover and predict potential terrorist activities and association links. Details of the asymmetric threat structure and the ATTACK system architecture are presented with results of an actual terrorist data mining and knowledge discovery test case shown.

  16. Cyber threat model for tactical radio networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurdziel, Michael T.

    2014-05-01

    The shift to a full information-centric paradigm in the battlefield has allowed ConOps to be developed that are only possible using modern network communications systems. Securing these Tactical Networks without impacting their capabilities has been a challenge. Tactical networks with fixed infrastructure have similar vulnerabilities to their commercial counterparts (although they need to be secure against adversaries with greater capabilities, resources and motivation). However, networks with mobile infrastructure components and Mobile Ad hoc Networks (MANets) have additional unique vulnerabilities that must be considered. It is useful to examine Tactical Network based ConOps and use them to construct a threat model and baseline cyber security requirements for Tactical Networks with fixed infrastructure, mobile infrastructure and/or ad hoc modes of operation. This paper will present an introduction to threat model assessment. A definition and detailed discussion of a Tactical Network threat model is also presented. Finally, the model is used to derive baseline requirements that can be used to design or evaluate a cyber security solution that can be scaled and adapted to the needs of specific deployments.

  17. The Threat of Uncertainty: Why Using Traditional Approaches for Evaluating Spacecraft Reliability are Insufficient for Future Human Mars Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stromgren, Chel; Goodliff, Kandyce; Cirillo, William; Owens, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Through the Evolvable Mars Campaign (EMC) study, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) continues to evaluate potential approaches for sending humans beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). A key aspect of these missions is the strategy that is employed to maintain and repair the spacecraft systems, ensuring that they continue to function and support the crew. Long duration missions beyond LEO present unique and severe maintainability challenges due to a variety of factors, including: limited to no opportunities for resupply, the distance from Earth, mass and volume constraints of spacecraft, high sensitivity of transportation element designs to variation in mass, the lack of abort opportunities to Earth, limited hardware heritage information, and the operation of human-rated systems in a radiation environment with little to no experience. The current approach to maintainability, as implemented on ISS, which includes a large number of spares pre-positioned on ISS, a larger supply sitting on Earth waiting to be flown to ISS, and an on demand delivery of logistics from Earth, is not feasible for future deep space human missions. For missions beyond LEO, significant modifications to the maintainability approach will be required.Through the EMC evaluations, several key findings related to the reliability and safety of the Mars spacecraft have been made. The nature of random and induced failures presents significant issues for deep space missions. Because spare parts cannot be flown as needed for Mars missions, all required spares must be flown with the mission or pre-positioned. These spares must cover all anticipated failure modes and provide a level of overall reliability and safety that is satisfactory for human missions. This will require a large amount of mass and volume be dedicated to storage and transport of spares for the mission. Further, there is, and will continue to be, a significant amount of uncertainty regarding failure rates for spacecraft

  18. Development of a risk-ranking framework to evaluate potential high-threat microorganisms, toxins, and chemicals in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newsome, R; Tran, N; Paoli, G M; Jaykus, L A; Tompkin, B; Miliotis, M; Ruthman, T; Hartnett, E; Busta, F F; Petersen, B; Shank, F; McEntire, J; Hotchkiss, J; Wagner, M; Schaffner, D W

    2009-03-01

    Through a cooperative agreement with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, the Institute of Food Technologists developed a risk-ranking framework prototype to enable comparison of microbiological and chemical hazards in foods and to assist policy makers, risk managers, risk analysts, and others in determining the relative public health impact of specific hazard-food combinations. The prototype is a bottom-up system based on assumptions that incorporate expert opinion/insight with a number of exposure and hazard-related risk criteria variables, which are propagated forward with food intake data to produce risk-ranking determinations. The prototype produces a semi-quantitative comparative assessment of food safety hazards and the impacts of hazard control measures. For a specific hazard-food combination the prototype can produce a single metric: a final risk value expressed as annual pseudo-disability adjusted life years (pDALY). The pDALY is a harmonization of the very different dose-response relationships observed for chemicals and microbes. The prototype was developed on 2 platforms, a web-based user interface and an Analytica(R) model (Lumina Decision Systems, Los Gatos, Calif., U.S.A.). Comprising visual basic language, the web-based platform facilitates data input and allows use concurrently from multiple locations. The Analytica model facilitates visualization of the logic flow, interrelationship of input and output variables, and calculations/algorithms comprising the prototype. A variety of sortable risk-ranking reports and summary information can be generated for hazard-food pairs, showing hazard and dose-response assumptions and data, per capita consumption by population group, and annual p-DALY.

  19. Insiders and Insider Threats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hunker, Jeffrey; Probst, Christian W.

    2011-01-01

    Threats from the inside of an organization’s perimeters are a significant problem, since it is difficult to distinguish them from benign activity. In this overview article we discuss defining properties of insiders and insider threats. After presenting definitions of these terms, we go on to disc...... of threats, and their mitigation. Another important observation is that the distinction between insiders and outsiders seems to loose significance as IT infrastructure is used in performing insider attacks....

  20. Estimation of the threat of IEMI to complex electronic systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Kanyou Nana

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The threat of ultra wideband (UWB sources is interesting for military issues. This paper summarizes information concerning the voltages generated from some commercially available UWB generator systems and their produced electromagnetic fields. The paper focuses on the coupling of UWB fields into electronic equipment and discusses possible modeling and measurement techniques to estimate such a threat for modern ships. An evaluation procedure for the determination of the induced voltage at the input of an electronic component is presented. This method is based on the computation of the internal electric field and the measurements on a test network, which is similar to the structure of the steering control cabling. It allows the estimation of the potential threat for the ship's electronic equipment due to the exposal to UWB emitting sources.

  1. Addressing the threat of evidence-based practice to qualitative inquiry through increasing attention to quality: a discussion paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Antonia M

    2008-02-01

    The current evidence-based practice (EBP) movement in healthcare emphasizes that clinical decision making should be based on the "best evidence" available, preferably the findings of randomized clinical trials. Within this context qualitative research findings are considered to have little value and the old debate in nursing has been re-ignited related to whether qualitative versus quantitative research findings provides the best empirical evidence for nursing practice. In response to this crisis qualitative scholars have been called upon by leaders in the field to clarify for outsiders what qualitative research is and to be more explicit in pointing out the utility of qualitative research findings. In addition, attention to "quality" in qualitative research has been identified as an area worthy of renewed focus. Within this paper two key problems related to addressing these issues are reviewed: disagreement not only among "outsiders" but also some nursing scholars related to the definition of "qualitative research", and a lack of consensus related how to best address "rigor" in this type of inquiry. Based on this review a set of standard requirements for qualitative research published in nursing journals is proposed that reflects a uniform definition of qualitative research and an enlarged yet clearly articulated conceptualization of quality. The approach suggested provides a framework for developing and evaluating qualitative research that would have both defensible scholarly merit and heuristic value. This will help solidify the argument in favor of incorporating qualitative research findings as part of the empirical "evidence" upon which evidence-based nursing is founded.

  2. Using decision models to decompose anxiety-related bias in threat classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Corey N; Skokin, Kimberly; Carlos, Brandon; Weaver, Alexandria

    2016-03-01

    Individuals with high levels of anxiety show preferential processing of threatening information, and this cognitive bias is thought to be an integral component of anxiety disorders. In threat classification tasks, this bias manifests as high-anxiety participants being more likely to classify stimuli as threatening than their low-anxiety counterparts. However, it is unclear which cognitive mechanisms drive this bias in threat classification. To better understand this phenomenon, threat classification data were analyzed with 2 decision models: a signal detection model and a drift-diffusion model. Signal detection models can dissociate measures of discriminability and bias, and diffusion models can further dissociate bias due to response preparation from bias due to stimulus evaluation. Individuals in the study completed a trait anxiety measure and classified threatening and neutral words based on whether they deemed them threatening. Signal detection analysis showed that high-anxiety participants had a bias driven by a weaker threat criterion than low-anxiety participants, but no differences in discriminability. Drift-diffusion analysis further decomposed the threat bias to show that it is driven by both an expectation bias that the threat response was more likely to be correct, and a stimulus bias driven by a weaker criterion for evaluating the stimuli under consideration. These model-based analyses provide valuable insight and show that multiple cognitive mechanisms underlie differential threat processing in anxiety. Implications for theories of anxiety are discussed.

  3. Identifying and Mitigating Insider Threats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Probst, Christian W.

    2011-01-01

    Organisations face many threats that coarsely can be separated in inside threats and outside threats. Threats from insiders are especially hard to counter since insiders have special knowledge and privileges. Therefore, malicious insider actions are hard to distinguish from benign actions. After...... discussing new definitions of insiders and insider threats, this article gives an overview of how to mitigate insider threats and discusses conflicting goals when dealing with insider threats....

  4. Training organizational supervisors to detect and prevent cyber insider threats: two approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dee H. Andrews

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Cyber insider threat is intentional theft from, or sabotage of, a cyber system by someone within the organization. This article explores the use of advanced cognitive and instructional principles to accelerate learning in organizational supervisors to mitigate the cyber threat. It examines the potential advantage of using serious games to engage supervisors. It also posits two systematic instructional approaches for this training challenge – optimal path modelling and a competency-based approach. The paper concludes by discussing challenges of evaluating training for seldom occurring real world phenomena, like detecting a cyber-insider threat.

  5. Cyber Intelligence Threat Prioritization

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-01

    possible direction of their behavior. and determines their interest in targeting the organization. t Intrinsic (personally rewarding) Extrinsic (receive...actors resources. Money People Tools Training Motive Why do threat actors attack? Determining an actor’s motive provides insight into the...platform that allows anyone to make their organization more visible to threat actors. Online Presence Extracurricular Activities Motive Risk

  6. Problems and Tools for the Detection of Threats to Personnel Security in the Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Victorovna Kuznetsova

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The investigation of threats negatively affecting the state and the development of human resources as well as the varieties of security threats is of particular importance in the theory and practice of personnel security measures. The purpose of the article is to identify and classify the ideas of the main threats to personnel security of the region (the research is carried out on the example of the Irkutsk region. On the basis of the content analysis of Russian regulatory legal acts and scientific publications, external and internal threats to personnel security of the region are highlighted. As a result, the list of threats to personnel security of the region consisting of 37 stands is composed. The political, economic, demographic, social, technical and technological, ecological, legal, ethnocultural forms of threats are demonstrated. The authors came to the conclusion that the internal threats to personnel security of the region (first of all socio-economic are dominant. An assessment of the urgency and relevance of the threats to the personnel security of the region is given. With the use of the technology of the hierarchical factorial analysis, the types of threats (factors of the lowest level were identified and their influence on the general level of the urgency of personnel security threats (a factor of the highest level is estimated. It is revealed that legal threats, as well as threats caused by the low labour potential of the region, have the most significant impact on the estimation of the urgency of threats. The study applies the following analysis methods — a content analysis, the analysis of linear and cross-distribution, hierarchical factor and correlation analysis. The analysis is based on the data of the expert survey conducted in the Irkutsk region (2015. To determine the relationship (coherence of the expert evaluations, the Kendall’s coefficient of concordance is calculated. The received results can be used for studying

  7. Perception of the Threat of Terrorism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen-Louck, Keren

    2016-04-28

    In light of the tense and ongoing security situation in Israel, one important issue that needs to be analyzed and understood is the perception of terrorism threats. Most studies focused mainly on the psychological implications of terrorist acts; this study examines the complexity of the manner in which the individual perceives the threat of terrorism. In all, 40 Israeli adults (22 women and 18 men) were interviewed using semistructured in-depth interviews. Qualitative analysis indicates that the components of the perception of terrorism that construct the evaluation and subjective perception of the participants are as follows: (a) perception of control, which is a feeling of loss of control and helplessness due to uncertainty, inability to predict threats, and the vagueness of the threat; (b) perception of vulnerability to the threat, such as a feeling of vulnerability to and potential victimization by terrorism; and (c) perception of fear of terrorism that includes responses of fear, anxiety, feeling of danger, and emotional distress. In addition, gender differences were found in the analysis. The findings of this study help gain a better understanding as to how people perceive the threat of terrorism. The findings also enable an understanding of the complexity of living under ongoing terrorism threats and may assist in understanding how citizens cope with and adjust to this threat.

  8. Threat Assessment of Aerial Target Based on AHP%基于层次分析法(AHP)的空中目标威胁度估计

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    闫冲冲; 郝永生

    2011-01-01

    为了对空中目标的威胁度进行科学评估和排序,以便于指挥员正确作出决策和作战指令,提出基于AHP的空中目标威胁估计的方法和具体步骤。首先分析影响空中目标威胁度的具体指标因素,同时构建各个因素的威胁因子和评判函数,然后利用一种改进型的层次分析算法对空中目标的威胁度进行全面综合的评估排序。实验案例结果表明,该评估方法的应用解决了传统层次分析法中人的主观判断模糊性的缺点,使评估结果更加趋于合理。%A way of threat assessment of aerial target based on AHP is illustrated for the compere to do correct decision-making and give orders. First, the article analyses the comlications which influence the threat of aerial target, constructing genes and judging functions of all the comlications. Then, it use an advanced AHP arithmetic to give the caompositor of the threat sythetically and roundly. The method overcome the disadvantage of man's judgement illegibity in conventional AHP, it is practical and effective.

  9. "Having the heart to be evaluated": The differential effects of fears of positive and negative evaluation on emotional and cardiovascular responses to social threat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weeks, Justin W; Zoccola, Peggy M

    2015-12-01

    Accumulating evidence supports fear of evaluation in general as important in social anxiety, including fear of positive evaluation (FPE) and fear of negative evaluation (FNE). The present study examined state responses to an impromptu speech task with a sample of 81 undergraduates. This study is the first to compare and contrast physiological responses associated with FPE and FNE, and to examine both FPE- and FNE-related changes in state anxiety/affect in response to perceived social evaluation during a speech. FPE uniquely predicted (relative to FNE/depression) increases in mean heart rate during the speech; in contrast, neither FNE nor depression related to changes in heart rate. Both FPE and FNE related uniquely to increases in negative affect and state anxiety during the speech. Furthermore, pre-speech state anxiety mediated the relationship between trait FPE and diminished positive affect during the speech. Implications for the theoretical conceptualization and treatment of social anxiety are discussed.

  10. Alternative Threat Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles B. King III

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Of the many challenges facing risk analysis practitioners, perhaps the most difficult to overcome is in the field of terrorist threat analysis. When estimating the threat associated with naturally occurring events, historical data provides a great deal of insight into the frequency of those events. Threat associated with accidents applies many operations research tools to gauge future failure-rates (Failure Mode and Effects Analysis being perhaps the most widely known. However, estimating the probability of an individual's or group's attacking a specific (or even a generic target is an element of risk analysis in which art and intuition are applied far more regularly than is science.

  11. 基于通信痕迹的网络威胁分区方法研究%Network Threat Partition Method Based on the Communication Trace

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    甄姬娜; 盛光磊

    2014-01-01

    The current network attack detection, are not fully considered directly attack item that the lack of direct attack the intrinsic connection between attention, lead to the classification of network attacks and threats partition accuracy is not high. In order to solve this problem, this paper puts forward a trace based on communication network threat partition method. Through the extraction network threat intrinsic characteristic of principal component characteristics, constructing the last attack left traces of communication, according to the communication traces of this feedback attack partitions, guarantee in the areas with similar attack characteristics, for later attack map construction to lay the foundation. The computer simulation proved that change method can well solve the network to threat the disadvantages of lack of correla-tion detection and improve the intrusion detection accuracy.%当前的网络攻击检测都没有充分考虑攻击的直接联系性,对攻击内在的直接关联缺少关注,导致攻击分类和网络威胁分区的准确性不高。为了解决这一问题,提出一种基于通信痕迹的网络威胁分区方法。通过提取网络威胁内在特有的主成份特征,构建出上一次攻击留下的通信痕迹,根据通信痕迹的反馈对本次攻击进行分区,保证同区域内的攻击特征类似,为后期的攻击图谱构建打下基础。计算机仿真实验证明,该方法可以很好的解决网络威胁检测缺少关联性的弊端,提高了入侵检测的准确度。

  12. A VV&A evaluation system based on hierarchical evaluation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FANG Ke; YANG Ming; WANG Zi-cai

    2005-01-01

    Evaluation is the major activity of performing Verification, Validation and Accreditation (VV&A) of a simulation system. Unfortunately, there is a lack of reasonable and operable evaluation methods. Moreover,there are other problems to address in VV&A evaluation, such as index definition, conclusion analysis, etc. In this paper, a VV&A evaluation system is introduced to try to resolve these problems. The system is based on a method called hierarchical evaluation, and it uses a good combination of evaluation processes and indexes.First, a thorough analysis of the VV&A evaluation' s essentials and principles are given, then the uncertainty of the evaluation results caused by various analysis of the evaluators is pointed out, then a hierarchical evaluation mechanism based on evaluator weight and evaluation hierarchy is brought forward, and finally a comprehensive VV&A evaluation system with evaluation flow processing, index management and hierarchical evaluation fulfillment is established. The system gives good consideration to ease of operation, reasonableness of evaluation conclusion, and the ability to comprehensively resolve VV&A problems. Since VV&A is attracting more and more recognition, it is meaningful to provide a good system for implementing credible simulation systems. It is hoped that this VV&A evaluation will provide a good way.

  13. Security threats categories in healthcare information systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samy, Ganthan Narayana; Ahmad, Rabiah; Ismail, Zuraini

    2010-09-01

    This article attempts to investigate the various types of threats that exist in healthcare information systems (HIS). A study has been carried out in one of the government-supported hospitals in Malaysia.The hospital has been equipped with a Total Hospital Information System (THIS). The data collected were from three different departments, namely the Information Technology Department (ITD), the Medical Record Department (MRD), and the X-Ray Department, using in-depth structured interviews. The study identified 22 types of threats according to major threat categories based on ISO/IEC 27002 (ISO 27799:2008). The results show that the most critical threat for the THIS is power failure followed by acts of human error or failure and other technological factors. This research holds significant value in terms of providing a complete taxonomy of threat categories in HIS and also an important component in the risk analysis stage.

  14. Multi-platform comparison of ten commercial master mixes for probe-based real-time polymerase chain reaction detection of bioterrorism threat agents for surge preparedness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buzard, Gregory S; Baker, Daniel; Wolcott, Mark J; Norwood, David A; Dauphin, Leslie A

    2012-11-30

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and United States Army Research Institute for Infectious Diseases have developed real-time PCR assays for the detection of bioterrorism threat agents. These assays all rely on a limited number of approved real-time PCR master mixes. Because the availability of these reagents is a critical element of bioterrorism preparedness, we undertook a joint national preparedness exercise to address the potential surge needs resulting from a large-scale bio-emergency. We identified 9 commercially-available potential alternatives to an existing approved master mix (LightCycler FastStart DNA Master HybProbes): the TaqMan Fast Universal PCR master mix, OmniMix HS, FAST qPCR master mix, EXPRESS qPCR SuperMix kit, QuantiFast Probe PCR kit, LightCycler FastStart DNA Master(PLUS) HybProbe, Brilliant II FAST qPCR master mix, ABsolute Fast QPCR Mix and the HotStart IT Taq master mix. The performances of these kits were evaluated by the use of real-time PCR assays for four bioterrorism threat agents: Bacillus anthracis, Brucella melitensis, Burkholderia mallei and Francisella tularensis. The master mixes were compared for target-specific detection levels, as well as consistency of results among three different real-time PCR platforms (LightCycler, SmartCycler and 7500 Fast Dx). Real-time PCR analysis revealed that all ten kits performed well for agent detection on the 7500 Fast Dx instrument; however, the QuantiFast Probe PCR kit yielded the most consistently positive results across multiple real-time PCR platforms. We report that certain combinations of commonly used master mixes and instruments are not as reliable as others at detecting low concentrations of target DNA. Furthermore, our study provides laboratories the option to select from the commercial kits we evaluated to suit their preparedness needs.

  15. Scientific performance estimation of robustness and threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, John R.; Sorensen, Eric; Stelzig, Chad A.; Mahler, Ronald P. S.; El-Fallah, Adel I.; Alford, Mark G.

    2002-07-01

    For the last three years at this conference we have been describing the implementation of a unified, scientific approach to performance estimation for various aspects of data fusion: multitarget detection, tracking, and identification algorithms; sensor management algorithms; and adaptive data fusion algorithms. The proposed approach is based on finite-set statistics (FISST), a generalization of conventional statistics to multisource, multitarget problems. Finite-set statistics makes it possible to directly extend Shannon-type information metrics to multisource, multitarget problems in such a way that information can be defined and measured even though any given end-user may have conflicting or even subjective definitions of what informative means. In this presentation, we will show how to extend our previous results to two new problems. First, that of evaluating the robustness of multisensor, multitarget algorithms. Second, that of evaluating the performance of multisource-multitarget threat assessment algorithms.

  16. A Knowledge-based Stampability Evaluation System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The aim, characteristics and requirements of stampability evaluation are identified.As sam-pability evaluation is highly skill-intensive and requires a wide variety of design expertise and knowledge, a knowledge based system is proposed for implementing the stampability evaluation.The stampability eval uation knowledge representation,and processing phases are illustrated. A case study demonstrates the feasibility of the knowledge based approach to stampability evalu-ation.

  17. Fall 2014 SEI Research Review Insider Threat Mitigation LINE Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-01

    Fall 2014 SEI Research Review Moore, 28-30 October 2014 © 2014 Carnegie Mellon University Contact Information Slide Format Presenter / Point of...published • Threat models published in book: CERT Guide to Insider Threats (2012) • Pattern-Based Design of Insider Threat Programs: Forthcoming 12

  18. Evaluation of the Biofire FilmArray BioThreat-E Test (v2.5) for Rapid Identification of Ebola Virus Disease in Heat-Treated Blood Samples Obtained in Sierra Leone and the United Kingdom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, Simon A; Bailey, Daniel; Matthews, Steven; Lumley, Sarah; Sweed, Angela; Ready, Derren; Eltringham, Gary; Richards, Jade; Vipond, Richard; Lukaszewski, Roman; Payne, Phillippa M; Aarons, Emma; Simpson, Andrew J; Hutley, Emma J; Brooks, Tim

    2016-01-01

    Rapid Ebola virus (EBOV) detection is crucial for appropriate patient management and care. The performance of the FilmArray BioThreat-E test (v2.5) using whole-blood samples was evaluated in Sierra Leone and the United Kingdom and was compared with results generated by a real-time Ebola Zaire PCR reference method. Samples were tested in diagnostic laboratories upon availability, included successive samples from individual patients, and were heat treated to facilitate EBOV inactivation prior to PCR. The BioThreat-E test had a sensitivity of 84% (confidence interval [CI], 64% to 95%) and a specificity of 89% (CI, 73% to 97%) in Sierra Leone (n = 60; 44 patients) and a sensitivity of 75% (CI, 19% to 99%) and a specificity of 100% (CI, 97% to 100%) in the United Kingdom (n = 108; 70 patients) compared to the reference real-time PCR. Statistical analysis (Fisher's exact test) indicated there was no significant difference between the methods at the 99% confidence level in either country. In 9 discrepant results (5 real-time PCR positives and BioThreat-E test negatives and 4 real-time PCR negatives and BioThreat-E test positives), the majority (n = 8) were obtained from samples with an observed or probable low viral load. The FilmArray BioThreat-E test (v2.5) therefore provides an attractive option for laboratories (either in austere field settings or in countries with an advanced technological infrastructure) which do not routinely offer an EBOV diagnostic capability.

  19. Network Threat Ratings in Conventional DREAD Model Using Fuzzy Logic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ak.Ashakumar Singh

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most popular techniques to deal with ever growing risks associated with security threats is DREAD model. It is used for rating risk of network threats identified in the abuser stories. In this model network threats needs to be defined by sharp cutoffs. However, such precise distribution is not suitable for risk categorization as risks are vague in nature and deals with high level of uncertainty. In view of these risk factors, the paper proposes a novel fuzzy approach using DREAD model for computing risk level that ensures better evaluation of imprecise concepts. Thus, it provides the capacity to include subjectivity and uncertainty during risk ranking. These threat parameters need to be frequently updated based on feedback from implementation of previous parameters. These feedback are always stated in the form of ordinal ratings, e.g. "high speed", "average performance", "good condition". Different people can describe different values to these ordinal ratings without a clear-cut reason or scientific basis. There is need for a way or means to transform vague ordinal ratings to more appreciable and precise numerical estimates. The paper transforms the ordinal performance ratings of some system performance parameters to numerical ratings using Fuzzy Logic.

  20. Concealed Threat Detection at Multiple Frames-per-second

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, J T

    2005-11-08

    In this LDRD project, our research purpose is to investigate the science and technology necessary to enable real-time array imaging as a rapid way to detect hidden threats through obscurants such as smoke, fog, walls, doors, and clothing. The goal of this research is to augment the capabilities of protective forces in concealed threat detection. In the current context, threats include people as well as weapons. In most cases, security personnel must make very fast assessments of a threat based upon limited amount of data. Among other attributes, UWB has been shown and quantified to penetrate and propagate through many materials (wood, some concretes, non-metallic building materials, some soils, etc.) while maintaining high range resolution. We have build collaborations with university partners and government agencies. We have considered the impact of psychometrics on target recognition and identification. Specifically we have formulated images in real-time that will engage the user's vision system in a more active way to enhance image interpretation capabilities. In this project, we are researching the use of real time (field programmable gate arrays) integrated with high resolution (cm scale), ultra wide band (UWB) electromagnetic signals for imaging personnel through smoke and walls. We evaluated the ability of real-time UWB imaging for detecting smaller objects, such as concealed weapons that are carried by the obscured personnel. We also examined the cognitive interpretation process of real time UWB electromagnetic images.

  1. Mobbing, threats to employees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatjana Vene

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available RQ: Is there a connection among perception of hostile and unethical communication, timely removal of causes and employee satisfaction?Purpose: Perceived mobbing in the organization, analysing causes and timely removal of them without any effect; achieve an environment of satisfied employees. The purpose is to study the relationship amongthe categories: perceiving mobbing, removing the effects, employee satisfaction.Methods: Qualitative research approach, method of interview by using the seven steps principles.Results: The findings clearly state that being aware of the negative factors and psychological abuse in organizations was present. The interview participants perceived different negative behaviours especially by the female population and from the side of superiors. In some organizations perceived negative factors are insults,insinuations, low wages, inadequate working day, competition, lobbying, and verbal threats. All negative factors lead to serious implications for employees, in which the organization can lose its reputation, productivity is reduced, costs of employment can increase with more sick leaves and in extreme cases, the results can be soserious that the organization can end in bankruptcy or liquidation.Organization: The result of the study warns management to acceptcertain actions and remediate the situation in organizations. The employer and managers must do everything to protect their subordinates from violence and potential offenders.Society: The research study warns on the seriousness of mobbing among employees, the aim is to bring the issue to individuals and society. The victim usually needs help (health costs, losses in the pension system, increased unemployment, and lower productivity of the whole society.Originality: In view of the sensitivity of the issues, the author concludes that the existing research studies are based especially on closed questions (questionnaires; however, interviews create mutual trust between

  2. Aspects of Insider Threats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Probst, Christian W.; Hunker, Jeffrey; Gollmann, Dieter;

    2010-01-01

    The insider threat has received considerable attention, and is often cited as the most serious security problem. It is also considered the most difficult problem to deal with, because an “insider” has information and capabilities not known to external attackers. The difficulty in handling the ins...

  3. Web-based Projects Evaluation Management System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Al-Zoubi

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This project designs a Web-based evaluation management system for the College of Arts and Sciences (CAS. Problem statement: The Msc students in College of Arts and Sciences (CAS in applied sciences had to take their final project as a project paper in order to fulfill the requirements of their programs and be able to graduate. The final project was evaluated in two parts; first part is representing 40% of the total mark and evaluated by evaluators. Second part was representing 60% of the total mark and evaluated by the student's supervisor. These evaluation were done manually. Both the evaluators and supervisors had to fill in the evaluation forms manually and submit them to the office. Approach: The design research methodology or sometimes called "improvement research" contained the major steps: Awareness the problem, suggestion, development, evaluation and conclusion. Results: Both evaluators and supervisors can fill in the evaluation forms through the Internet. Bring the advantage of saving time and resources over traditional paper and pencil scan sheet method. For enhancing the performance of current final project evaluation process in College of Arts and Sciences (CAS this study proposed a web based evaluation management system to replace the current paper forms used by the evaluators and supervisors. Conclusion: Implementing this system will enable the evaluation results to be entered, presume and retrieved anytime anywhere.

  4. 49 CFR 1515.5 - Appeal of Initial Determination of Threat Assessment based on criminal conviction, immigration...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... Assessment based on criminal conviction, immigration status, or mental capacity. 1515.5 Section 1515.5... criminal conviction, immigration status, or mental capacity. (a) Scope. This section applies to applicants... the immigration status requirements as described in 49 CFR 1572.105. (3) TSA has determined that...

  5. Threatened freshwater and terrestrial molluscs (Mollusca, Gastropoda et Bivalvia of Santa Catarina State, Southern Brazil: check list and evaluation of regional threats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available A total of nineteen continental native mollusc species are confirmed for the Santa Catarina State (SC(organized in ten Genera and seven Families, one aquatic Prosobranchia/Caenogastropoda (Ampullariidae,six Pulmonata terrestrial gastropods (one Ellobiidae, three Megalobulimidae and two micro-snails –Charopidae and Streptaxidae and twelve freshwater mussels (eight Mycetopodidae and four Hyriidae. Thesespecies are designated by the International Union for Conservation of the Nature – IUCN as follows: seven as"Vulnerable", six "In Danger" and six “Without Category Established”. The general regional threats that thesespecies are subjected to are briefly analyzed.

  6. Threat in dreams: an adaptation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malcolm-Smith, Susan; Solms, Mark; Turnbull, Oliver; Tredoux, Colin

    2008-12-01

    Revonsuo's influential Threat Simulation Theory (TST) predicts that people exposed to survival threats will have more threat dreams, and evince enhanced responses to dream threats, compared to those living in relatively safe conditions. Participants in a high crime area (South Africa: n=208) differed significantly from participants in a low crime area (Wales, UK: n=116) in having greater recent exposure to a life-threatening event (chi([1,N=186])(2)=14.84, pdreams (chi([1,N=287])(2)=6.11, pdream threats (Fisher's Exact test, p=.2478). Overall, the incidence of threat in dreams was extremely low-less than 20% of dreams featured realistic survival threats. Escape from dream threats occurred in less than 2% of dreams. We conclude that this evidence contradicts key aspects of TST.

  7. Nuclear Threats and Security

    OpenAIRE

    Garry Jacobs; Winston P. Nagan

    2012-01-01

    This article presents highlights and insights from the International Conference on “Nuclear Threats and Security” organized by the World Academy of Art and Science in association with the European Leadership Network and the Dag Hammarskjöld University College of International Relations and Diplomacy and sponsored by NATO at the Inter-University Centre, Dubrovnik on September 14-16, 2012. The conference examined important issues related to nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, the legalit...

  8. A Secure Routing Protocol to Eliminate Integrity, Authentication and Sleep Deprivation Based Threats in Mobile Ad hoc Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edna E. Nallathambi

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Network security in Mobile Ad hoc Network (MANET is a major issue. Some of the attacks such as modification, impersonation, Time To Live (TTL and sleep deprivation are due to misbehaviour of malicious nodes, which disrupts the transmission. Some of the existing security protocols such as ARAN, SAODV and SEAD are basically used to detect and eliminate one or two types of attacks. The major requirement of a secure protocol is to prevent and eliminate many attacks simultaneously which will make the MANETs more secured. Approach: We propose the algorithm that can prevent and also eliminate multiple attacks simultaneously, called MIST algorithm (Modification, Impersonation, Sleep deprivation and TTL attacks. This algorithm is written on Node Transition Probability (NTP based protocol which provides maximum utilization of bandwidth during heavy traffic with less overhead. Thus this has been named MIST NTP. Results: The proposed MIST NTP has been compared with NTP without the MIST algorithm, Authenticated Routing for Ad hoc Networks (ARAN and Ad hoc on Demand Distance Vector (AODV. Extensive packet level simulations show that MIST NTP produces around 10% less end to end delay than ARAN, it even drops 30% fewer packets compared to malicious NTP on an average and around 50-60% fewer packets compared to AODV during multiple attacks. Conclusion: The results ensure that MIST NTP can break the greatest security challenge prevailing in MANETs by securing the MANET against several attacks at once.

  9. The Development of a Scientific Evaluation System of Force-on-Force (FOF) Exercise for Performance-based Regulation in Nuclear Security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koh, Moonsung; Jung, Myungtak [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    A terrorist attack or sabotage at a nuclear facility could lead result in a great amount of loss of life and social chaos, in addition to serious radiological damage. As threats have been evolved more intelligent, divergent, advanced, the international societies including IAEA encourage for all member states to establish the performance-based regulation using Forceon- Force (FOF) exercise, computer simulation. Consequently, the performance evaluation for physical protection at nuclear facilities should focus on properly reacting to threat scenarios. Physical protection should also include detecting, blocking, delaying, interrupting including the human and technical factors the adversary having malicious intention of the realistic main threat element before he accomplishes the goal based on Design Basis Threat (DBT). After the completion of the FOF evaluation system, KINAC will evaluate, and later strengthen its overall security program in response to changes in the threat environment, technological advancements, and lessons learned. As a result, substantial improvements to a nuclear facility security can be predicted. These improvements will focus on a plant security force, physical barriers, intrusion detection systems, surveillance systems, and access controls. Through the building a Force-on-Force scientific evaluation system, KINAC will establish an efficient physical protection implementation system for nuclear energy facilities.

  10. Stereotype Threat in Organizations: An Examination of its Scope, Triggers, and Possible Interventions

    OpenAIRE

    Laura J. Kray; Shirako, Aiwa

    2009-01-01

    This chapter explores stereotype threat in organizational contexts. Building on the understanding that stereotype threat involves concerns about confirming a negative stereotype about one’s group, we begin by elucidating the scope of potential stereotype threat effects in organizations. We first examine the ubiquity of evaluations in organizations, which are at the heart of stereotype threat. Next we specify the potential psychological consequences of stereotype threat on targeted individua...

  11. Building Assessment Survey and Evaluation Data (BASE)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Building Assessment Survey and Evaluation (BASE) study was a five year study to characterize determinants of indoor air quality and occupant perceptions in...

  12. Performance-Based Evaluation and School Librarians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Church, Audrey P.

    2015-01-01

    Evaluation of instructional personnel is standard procedure in our Pre-K-12 public schools, and its purpose is to document educator effectiveness. With Race to the Top and No Child Left Behind waivers, states are required to implement performance-based evaluations that demonstrate student academic progress. This three-year study describes the…

  13. Threat modeling designing for security

    CERN Document Server

    Shostack, Adam

    2014-01-01

    Adam Shostack is responsible for security development lifecycle threat modeling at Microsoft and is one of a handful of threat modeling experts in the world. Now, he is sharing his considerable expertise into this unique book. With pages of specific actionable advice, he details how to build better security into the design of systems, software, or services from the outset. You'll explore various threat modeling approaches, find out how to test your designs against threats, and learn effective ways to address threats that have been validated at Microsoft and other top companies. Systems secur

  14. Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, Dan E; Pedrini, Paolo; Brambilla, Mattia; Rolando, Antonio; Girardello, Marco

    2016-01-01

    Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds). For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community.

  15. Otters Increasing - Threats Increasing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Kranz

    1994-10-01

    Full Text Available In some parts of Central Europe populations of otters are apparently increasing. Until recently, no research was being conducted on the ecology of otters in mainly artificial habitats like fish farms. Otters are not only a new source of conflict requiring species management, but appear once again threatened by illegal hunting. Austria is dealing with this problem using compensation for otter damage, electric fencing and translocation of problem otters. Despite a rise in illegal killing, Austria does not formally recognise this as a threat.

  16. The threat from without

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lassi Saressalo

    1987-01-01

    Full Text Available Of greatest importance in ethnic folklore are the recognised and unrecognised elements that are used when founding identity on tradition. For the aim of ethnic identification is to note and know the cultural features that connect me with people like me and separate me from people who are not like me. Every group and each of its members thus needs an opponent, a contact partner in order to identify itself. What about the Lapps? The ethnocentric values of ethnic folklore provide a model for this generalising comparison. 'They' are a potential danger, are unknown, strange, a threat from beyond the fells. They are sufficiently common for the group's ethnic feeling. It is here that we find tradition, folk tales, describing the community's traditional enemies, describing the threat from without, engendering preconceived ideas, conflicts and even war. The Lapps have never had an empire, they have never conquered others' territory, they have never engaged in systematic warfare against other peoples. For this reason Lapp tradition lacks an offensive ethnic folklore proper with emphasis on aggression, power, violence, heroism and an acceptance of the ideology of subordinating others. On the contrary,Lapp folklore is familiar with a tradition in which strangers are always threatening the Lapps' existence, plundering their territories, burning and destroying. The Lapp has always had to fight against alien powers, to give in or to outwit the great and powerful enemy. In the Lapp tradition the staalo represents an outside threat that cannot be directly concretised. If foes are regarded as concrete enemies that may be defeated in physical combat or that can be made to look ridiculous, a staalo is more mythical, more supranormal, more vague. One basic feature of the staalo tradition is that it only appears as one party to a conflict. The stories about the Lapp who succeeds in driving away a staalo threatening the community, to outwit the stupid giant or to kill

  17. Threats to international science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kisslinger, Carl

    The role of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) as effective agents for promoting world science is seriously threatened. It is ironic that the threat comes from Norway and Denmark, two countries that have demonstrated a deep commitment to individual freedom and human rights. Motivated by a sincere desire to express their strongest disapproval of the “apartheid” policies of the government of the Republic of South Africa, these countries have passed laws that have the effect of rejecting the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) principles of nondiscrimination and free circulation of scientists.

  18. 层次化电力信息网络威胁态势评估方法%Hierarchical Cyber-Threat Situation Evaluation Method for Electric Power Information Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王宇飞; 徐志博; 王婧

    2013-01-01

    为了实时描述电力信息网络的宏观安全状况,提出了一种层次化的网络威胁态势评估方法并予以系统实现.该方法通过灰色聚类分析将各种网络威胁按危害程度划分为强、中、弱3类,并以这3类作为层次分析法中准则层的设计依据,再利用层次分析法构造层次化的评估指标体系并确定各种网络威胁的权重.将各种网络威胁的权重与其实时发生次数加权求和得到网络威胁态势值,其数值大小反映了电力信息网络实时安全状况.最后的实验和系统运行情况表明,该方法可有效地展示电力信息网络安全状况,有助于提高其安全防护水平.%To describe the macro safety situation of electric power information network in real-time,an hierarchical threat situation evaluation method is proposed and implemented.This method adopt the gray clustering analysis to categorize the damage degree as strong,medium,weak in total 3 types,hased on which the principle layer of the analytic hierarchy process is designed.According to the evaluation index system of the structure layer of analytic hierarchy process,the weight of the cyber-threat is confirmed.And the cyber-threat situation value can be obtained by the weighted summation of each cyber-threat weight and its real-time occurrence frequency,which reports the real-time safety situation of the electric power network.The final experiment and system operation shows that,this method may effectively describe the safety situation of electric power network and be helpful for the development of safety and protection level.

  19. When threats foreign turn domestic: Two ways for distant realistic intergroup threats to carry over into local intolerance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouman, Thijs; van Zomeren, Martijn; Otten, Sabine

    2015-09-01

    In times of economic downturn, perceived realistic intergroup threats (e.g., labour competition) often dominate political and media discourse. Although local outgroups (e.g., local immigrants) can be experienced as sources of realistic threats, we propose that such threats can also be perceived to be caused by distant outgroups (e.g., European Union members perceiving Greece to threaten their economies) and that such distant threats can carry over into local intolerance (e.g., increasing intolerance towards local immigrant groups). We predicted and found in two studies that perceived distant realistic threats carried over into local intolerance via two different pathways. First, direct reactions towards the distant outgroup can generalize to culturally similar local outgroups (the group-based association pathway). Secondly, Study 2 indicated that when the distant threat was attributed to stereotypical outgroup traits (e.g., being lazy), distant realistic threats activated local realistic threats, which subsequently influenced local intolerance (the threat-based association pathway). Taken together, our studies indicate that perceived realistic threats foreign can turn domestic, but in two different ways.

  20. Dissolution Threats and Legislative Bargaining

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Becher, Michael; Christiansen, Flemming Juul

    2015-01-01

    Chief executives in many parliamentary democracies have the power to dissolve the legislature. Despite a well-developed literature on the endogenous timing of parliamentary elections, political scientists know remarkably little about the strategic use of dissolution power to influence policymaking....... To address this gap, we propose and empirically evaluate a theoretical model of legislative bargaining in the shadow of executive dissolution power. The model implies that the chief executive's public support and legislative strength, as well as the time until the next constitutionally mandated election......, are important determinants of the use and effectiveness of dissolution threats in policymaking. Analyzing an original time-series data set from a multiparty parliamentary democracy, we find evidence in line with key empirical implications of the model....

  1. Criteria for Evaluating Web-Based Hypertext.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Hsi-chi

    This study focuses on teachers as designers using constructive hypertext and their perspectives on evaluating Web-based hypertext projects. The research setting was a graduate level course focused on learning hypertext and designing hypertext projects in Web-based environments. The 11 participants were in-service teachers and graduate students…

  2. 大学生数学刻板印象威胁实验研究%Study of Math-based Stereotype Threat Faced by University Students

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    罗苏梅; 徐文明

    2012-01-01

    There are all kinds of gender stereotypes in the field of education, which tend to impede the people to accept new things and hinder cognitive processing .The primary goal of this research investigate the impact of implicit versus explicit stereotype threat manipulations on Limitations of Working Memory. The author conducted 2×3 design in which 54female and male participants were asked to take a math test & operation-span task under conditions of stereotype threat or not. The results of experiment indicated that women under implicit versus explicit stereotype threat recalled fewer letters than men and women in a no threat control condition. Whereas, men under implicit versus explicit stereotype threat recalled letters as much as men in a no threat control condition. Explicit primes and implicit primes had a significant effect on women' Working Memory.%教育领域存在形形色色的性别刻板印象,而刻板印象刺激往往会阻碍人们接受新事物,给人们的认知带来负面的影响.对于女性来说,在内隐启动和外显启动范式下其工作记忆容量均小于控制组;对于男性被试来说,实验组的工作记忆容量与控制组没有显著差异.无论是内隐还是外显启动刻板印象威胁均对女性的工作记忆容量造成影响.

  3. Approach to Object Oriented Threat Modeling%面向对象的威胁建模方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何可; 李晓红; 冯志勇

    2011-01-01

    为提高软件设计的可信性,提出一种面向对象的威胁建模方法,不仅能够捕捉数据流中存在的威胁,而且能够捕捉控制流中存在的威胁.基于攻击路径,从成本效益角度更准确地评估威胁,根据评估结果制定缓和方案并确定优先级,应用缓和方案改进软件设计,有效地缓和威胁,增强系统安全性.实现一个面向对象的威胁建模工具,并以实例进行了验证.%To improve trustworthiness of software design, this paper presents an object oriented threat modeling approach. This approach captures not only threats existed in data flow, but also threats existed in control flow. To precisely evaluate threats, this approach adopts an attack path based evaluation method in terms of cost-effectiveness. According to the evaluation results, mitigation measures are designed and prioritized. Applying the mitigation measures to the design of software can effectively mitigate threats and enhance the security of applications. An object oriented threat modeling tool is implemented. A case study is given to demonstrate the approach.

  4. Threats Management Throughout the Software Service Life-Cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erlend Andreas Gjære

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Software services are inevitably exposed to a fluctuating threat picture. Unfortunately, not all threats can be handled only with preventive measures during design and development, but also require adaptive mitigations at runtime. In this paper we describe an approach where we model composite services and threats together, which allows us to create preventive measures at design-time. At runtime, our specification also allows the service runtime environment (SRE to receive alerts about active threats that we have not handled, and react to these automatically through adaptation of the composite service. A goal-oriented security requirements modelling tool is used to model business-level threats and analyse how they may impact goals. A process flow modelling tool, utilising Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN and standard error boundary events, allows us to define how threats should be responded to during service execution on a technical level. Throughout the software life-cycle, we maintain threats in a centralised threat repository. Re-use of these threats extends further into monitoring alerts being distributed through a cloud-based messaging service. To demonstrate our approach in practice, we have developed a proof-of-concept service for the Air Traffic Management (ATM domain. In addition to the design-time activities, we show how this composite service duly adapts itself when a service component is exposed to a threat at runtime.

  5. Fuzzy logic based sensor performance evaluation of vehicle mounted metal detector systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abeynayake, Canicious; Tran, Minh D.

    2015-05-01

    Vehicle Mounted Metal Detector (VMMD) systems are widely used for detection of threat objects in humanitarian demining and military route clearance scenarios. Due to the diverse nature of such operational conditions, operational use of VMMD without a proper understanding of its capability boundaries may lead to heavy causalities. Multi-criteria fitness evaluations are crucial for determining capability boundaries of any sensor-based demining equipment. Evaluation of sensor based military equipment is a multi-disciplinary topic combining the efforts of researchers, operators, managers and commanders having different professional backgrounds and knowledge profiles. Information acquired through field tests usually involves uncertainty, vagueness and imprecision due to variations in test and evaluation conditions during a single test or series of tests. This report presents a fuzzy logic based methodology for experimental data analysis and performance evaluation of VMMD. This data evaluation methodology has been developed to evaluate sensor performance by consolidating expert knowledge with experimental data. A case study is presented by implementing the proposed data analysis framework in a VMMD evaluation scenario. The results of this analysis confirm accuracy, practicability and reliability of the fuzzy logic based sensor performance evaluation framework.

  6. 基于 DBN 威胁评估的 MPC 无人机三维动态路径规划%MPC three-dimensional dynamic path planning for UAV based on DBN threat assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高晓光; 李青原; 邸若海

    2014-01-01

    模型预测控制(model predictive control,MPC)路径规划算法适用于三维动态环境下的无人机(un-manned aerial vehicle,UAV)路径规划;动态贝叶斯网络(dynamic Bayesian network,DBN)能够有效推理战场态势,对无人机进行威胁评估。针对威胁尾随无人机时的路径规划问题,构建 DBN 威胁评估模型,将 UAV 在战场环境中的威胁态势用威胁等级概率表示,与 MPC 路径规划算法相结合,得到基于 DBN 威胁评估的 MPC UAV 路径规划算法。通过多组仿真分析表明,在三维动态环境下,特别是威胁尾随无人机时,基于 DBN 威胁评估的 MPC无人机路径规划算法可以得到有效的无人机路径。%The model predictive control (MPC)path planning algorithm can solve the problem of dynamic unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)path planning.Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN)is an effective tool for rea-soning and threat assessment.Considering the problem of path planning when the dynamic threat tags the UAV,the MPC path planning algorithm combined with DBN threat assessment is presented,which used the threat lever probability to describe the threat situation.A group of simulations demonstrate the efficiency of MPC three-dimensional dynamic path planning algorithm for UAV based on DBN threat assessment especially when the dynamic threat tags the UAV.

  7. Mobile based optical form evaluation system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asım Sinan YÜKSEL

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Optical forms that contain multiple-choice answers are widely used both for electing students and evaluating student achievements in education systems in our country and worldwide. Optical forms are evaluated by employing optical mark recognition techniques through optical readers. High cost of these machines, limited access to them, long waiting time for evaluation results make the process hard for educationists working in cities or countries. In this study, a mobile application was developed for the educationists who own mobile phones or tablets for the purpose of evaluating students' answer sheets quickly and independent of location and optical readers. Optical form recognition, reading and evaluation processes are done on the image of student's answer sheet that is taken with the mobile phone or tablet of educationist. The Android based mobile application that we developed has a user-friendly interface, high success rate and is the first of our knowledge application that operates on mobile platforms in this field.

  8. Evaluating Hospital-Based Surveillance for Outbreak Detection in Bangladesh: Analysis of Healthcare Utilization Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolay, Birgit; Salje, Henrik; Sturm-Ramirez, Katharine; Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo; Homaira, Nusrat; Iuliano, A. Danielle; Paul, Repon C.; Hossain, M. Jahangir; Cauchemez, Simon; Gurley, Emily S.

    2017-01-01

    Background The International Health Regulations outline core requirements to ensure the detection of public health threats of international concern. Assessing the capacity of surveillance systems to detect these threats is crucial for evaluating a country’s ability to meet these requirements. Methods and Findings We propose a framework to evaluate the sensitivity and representativeness of hospital-based surveillance and apply it to severe neurological infectious diseases and fatal respiratory infectious diseases in Bangladesh. We identified cases in selected communities within surveillance hospital catchment areas using key informant and house-to-house surveys and ascertained where cases had sought care. We estimated the probability of surveillance detecting different sized outbreaks by distance from the surveillance hospital and compared characteristics of cases identified in the community and cases attending surveillance hospitals. We estimated that surveillance detected 26% (95% CI 18%–33%) of severe neurological disease cases and 18% (95% CI 16%–21%) of fatal respiratory disease cases residing at 10 km distance from a surveillance hospital. Detection probabilities decreased markedly with distance. The probability of detecting small outbreaks (three cases) dropped below 50% at distances greater than 26 km for severe neurological disease and at distances greater than 7 km for fatal respiratory disease. Characteristics of cases attending surveillance hospitals were largely representative of all cases; however, neurological disease cases aged <5 y or from the lowest socioeconomic group and fatal respiratory disease cases aged ≥60 y were underrepresented. Our estimates of outbreak detection rely on suspected cases that attend a surveillance hospital receiving laboratory confirmation of disease and being reported to the surveillance system. The extent to which this occurs will depend on disease characteristics (e.g., severity and symptom specificity) and

  9. Prejudice towards Muslims in The Netherlands: testing integrated threat theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco González, Karina; Verkuyten, Maykel; Weesie, Jeroen; Poppe, Edwin

    2008-12-01

    This study uses integrated threat theory to examine Dutch adolescents' (N=1,187) prejudice towards Muslim minorities. One out of two participants was found to have negative feelings towards Muslims. Perceived symbolic and realistic threat and negative stereotypes were examined as mediators between antecedent factors (in-group identification, intergroup contact, and the endorsement of multiculturalism) and prejudice. Based on structural equation modelling, it was found that stereotypes and symbolic threats, but not realistic threats, predicted prejudice towards Muslims. Further, it was found that the effect of in-group identification on prejudice was fully mediated by symbolic threat, the effect of contact was partially mediated by stereotypes, and the effect of the endorsement of multiculturalism was mediated by both symbolic threat and stereotypes. In addition, contact and multiculturalism were directly associated with prejudice towards Muslims. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.

  10. Nuclear Threats and Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garry Jacobs

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This article presents highlights and insights from the International Conference on “Nuclear Threats and Security” organized by the World Academy of Art and Science in association with the European Leadership Network and the Dag Hammarskjöld University College of International Relations and Diplomacy and sponsored by NATO at the Inter-University Centre, Dubrovnik on September 14-16, 2012. The conference examined important issues related to nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, the legality of nuclear weapons and their use, illicit trade in nuclear materials, the dangers of nuclear terrorism, nuclear- and cyber-security. Papers and video recordings of the major presentations and session summaries can be found here.

  11. Dismount Threat Recognition through Automatic Pose Identification

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    camera and joint estimation software of the Kinect for Xbox 360. A threat determination is made based on the pose identified by the network. Ac- curacy...mapping produced by the Kinect sensor [3]. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 2.5. Test subject and generated model. The subject is...16 3.2. Joint position estimates extracted from Kinect . Example of col- lecting orthogonal poses

  12. Flood-threat zoning map of the urban area of Chocó (Quibdó. A study based on interpreting radar, satellite and aerial photograph images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zamir Maturana Córdoba

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available A zoning map of areas which flood due to the Atrato River and its tributaries (the Cabí, Caraño and Yesca over-flowing in the urban area of Chocó (Quibdo was drawn up to be used by aid authorities and Quibdó city as a planning and control tool. This research relied on CIAF (Centro Interamericano de Fotointerpretación support and assessment. This entity is a subsidiary institution of the Instituto Geográfico Agustín Codazzi which provided their installations and the required geographical material. This research was initially based on interpreting radar (INTERA, satellite (LANDSAT and aerial photographic images; this was verified by field verification of the in-terpreted data. Other variables such as climatic, geological, temperature, topographic conditions, historic and hydrological series and facts regarding the region were studied as additional information required for drawing conclusions. Aerial photographs provided the most reliable images due to their scales, quantity and quality and the date of when they were taken. Radar images (INTERA were also important when visually analysing a sector’s topography as they were produced by an active microwave sensor (totally eliminating climatic obstacles. On the contrary, satellite images did not have great relevance due to the amount of clouds hampering any kind of analysis. Complementing these results, a calibration curve for analysing this section’s maximum flow values was based on historical series data regarding the Atrato River’s flows and maximum levels recorded at the Quibdo hydrographical station and the river-bed’s cross-section. Implications that the river would overflow or has over-flowed were statistically estimated on these results, thereby setting the limits (supported by cartographic data for the corresponding areas at risk of flooding. A map marking areas at risk of flooding in the urban zone of Quibdó was then designed and a document prepared concluding that

  13. Financial Derivatives (Based on Two Supports Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiberiu Socaciu

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we build a PDE like Black-Scholes equation in hypothesis of a financial derivative that is dependent on two supports (usual is dependent only on one support, like am
    option based on gold, when national currency has a great float.
    Keywords: Financial derivatives, derivatives evaluation, derivatives based on two supports, extended Itō like lemma.

  14. Research on Threat Assessment to Aerial Target Based on Bayesian Network%基于贝叶斯网络的空中目标威胁估计方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱波; 方立恭; 金钊

    2011-01-01

    针对当前威胁估计中存在的问题,提出了基于贝叶斯网络的空中目标威胁估计方法.从威胁估计的概念出发,构建了基于贝叶斯网络的威胁估计功能框架,在对输入的防空作战事件进行分类定义的基础上,给出了事件关联在贝叶斯网络中的实现方法,同时对模型的建立步骤进行了说明.在融合了目标威胁先验信息的基础上,通过战场观测到的不确定信息进行推理,威胁估计结果具有很强的可信性,相应的建模思路可为威胁估计系统的构建提供有益的参考.最后以一个示例说明了该方法的有效性.%Aimming at the present problems existing in threat assessment, a novel air defense oriented threat assessment method based on bayesian network is proposed in this paper. In the view of threat assessment's definition, a function framework which is based on bayseian network is built up. Meanwhile, by the classification definition of input air defense events, the corresponding implement approach of event correlation in bayesian network is presented, among which the modeling procedure is described in detail. By combing the prior information of threat assessment, the threat assessment method presented in this paper employs the uncertain information which is obtained from the battlefield observation to carry out the inference, the result of which has strong dependability. Also, the relevant modeling thread can provide a reference for building the threat assessment system. Finally, a demonstration is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the method.

  15. A Boosting Algorithm Based Method to Predict Cyber-Threats Situation of Power Information Network%采用Boosting方法预测电力信息网络的威胁态势

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐茹枝; 王婧; 朱少敏; 许瑞辉

    2013-01-01

    The prediction of cyber-threats situation can effectively reflect the macroscopic security situation of power information network in the future time. To realize the accurate prediction of cyber-threats situation, an AdaBoosting algorithm based cyber-threats situation prediction method for information network is proposed. In the proposed method, the values of cyber-threats situation are used to describe the macroscopic security situation of power information network, and the prediction of macroscopic security situation is abstracted to a regression problem, and then the regression problem is solved by AdaBoosting algorithm. Firstly, using the sliding time window a time series sample set is constructed by cyber-threats situation values;then the sample set is input into AdaBoosting algorithm to be trained to obtain a regression analysis model;finally the prediction of cyber-threats situation is completed by the regression analysis model. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by results of replication experiments based on field data.%威胁态势预测可以有效反映电力信息网络在未来时刻的宏观安全状况。为实现威胁态势的精确预测,提出一种基于AdaBoosting方法的网络威胁态势预测方法。该方法采用威胁态势值描述电力信息网络的宏观安全态势,并将威胁态势值的预测抽象为回归问题,进而利用AdaBoosting方法求解。该方法先利用滑动时间窗口将威胁态势值构造成时间序列样本集,再将样本集输入到AdaBoosting方法中训练,以得到回归分析模型,并利用该模型完成威胁态势预测。最后基于现场数据的验证性实验证明了所提方法的有效性。

  16. Threat Detection in Tweets with Trigger Patterns and Contextual Cues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spitters, M.M.; Eendebak, P.T.; Worm, D.T.H.; Bouma, H.

    2014-01-01

    Many threats in the real world can be related to activities in open sources on the internet. Early detection of threats based on internet information could assist in the prevention of incidents. However, the amount of data in social media, blogs and forums rapidly increases and it is time consuming

  17. Analysis of volcanic threat from Nisyros Island, Greece, with implications for aviation and population exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinvig, H. S.; Winson, A.; Gottsmann, J.

    2010-06-01

    Nisyros island in the South Aegean volcanic arc, Greece, is a Quaternary composite volcano with a 3.8 km wide caldera that in 1996 entered a volcano-seismic crisis, which heralded the islands' return to a state of unrest. The caldera has been the locus of at least thirteen phreatic eruptions in historical times, the most recent in 1888, and the system is still presently affected by considerable hydrothermal activity. Although the recent unrest waned off without eruption, there are still open questions relating to the current threat of volcanic activity from the island. Here, we perform a detailed and systematic assessment of the volcanic threat of Nisyros using a threat analysis protocol established as part of the USGS National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS). The evaluation involves a methodical assessment of fifteen hazard and exposure factors, and is based on a score system, whereby the higher the score, the higher the threat is. Uncertainty in assessment criteria are expressed by allowing for a conservative and an extreme score for each factor. We draw our analysis from published data as well as from results of our research on Nisyros over the past years. Our analysis yields a conservative threat score of 163 and an extreme score of 262. The most adverse exposure factors include significant scores relating to aviation and population exposure to volcanic hazards from Nisyros. When looked at in comparison to US volcanoes both scores place Nisyros in the "Very High Threat (VHT)" category, grouping it with volcanoes such as Redoubt, Mount Ranier and Crater Lake. We identify a short-fall in recommended surveillance efforts for VHT volcanoes given existing monitoring capabilities on the island. We discuss potential pitfalls of applying the NVEWS scheme to Nisyros and suggest potential adaptation of analysis scheme to match industrial and societal conditions in Europe. At the same time, our findings indicate that that volcanic threat posed by Nisyros volcano may

  18. Analysis of volcanic threat from Nisyros Island, Greece, with implications for aviation and population exposure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. S. Kinvig

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Nisyros island in the South Aegean volcanic arc, Greece, is a Quaternary composite volcano with a 3.8 km wide caldera that in 1996 entered a volcano-seismic crisis, which heralded the islands' return to a state of unrest. The caldera has been the locus of at least thirteen phreatic eruptions in historical times, the most recent in 1888, and the system is still presently affected by considerable hydrothermal activity. Although the recent unrest waned off without eruption, there are still open questions relating to the current threat of volcanic activity from the island. Here, we perform a detailed and systematic assessment of the volcanic threat of Nisyros using a threat analysis protocol established as part of the USGS National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS. The evaluation involves a methodical assessment of fifteen hazard and exposure factors, and is based on a score system, whereby the higher the score, the higher the threat is. Uncertainty in assessment criteria are expressed by allowing for a conservative and an extreme score for each factor. We draw our analysis from published data as well as from results of our research on Nisyros over the past years. Our analysis yields a conservative threat score of 163 and an extreme score of 262. The most adverse exposure factors include significant scores relating to aviation and population exposure to volcanic hazards from Nisyros. When looked at in comparison to US volcanoes both scores place Nisyros in the "Very High Threat (VHT" category, grouping it with volcanoes such as Redoubt, Mount Ranier and Crater Lake. We identify a short-fall in recommended surveillance efforts for VHT volcanoes given existing monitoring capabilities on the island. We discuss potential pitfalls of applying the NVEWS scheme to Nisyros and suggest potential adaptation of analysis scheme to match industrial and societal conditions in Europe. At the same time, our findings indicate that that volcanic threat posed by

  19. Interfacing a biosurveillance portal and an international network of institutional analysts to detect biological threats

    OpenAIRE

    Riccardo, Flavia; Shigematsu, Mika; Chow, Catherine; Linge, Jens; Doherty, Brian; DENTE Maria Grazia; Declich, Silvia; BARKER Mike; Barboza, Philippe; Vaillant, Laetitia; Donachie, Alastair; Mawudeku, Abla; Arthur, Ray; MCKNIGHT Jason

    2014-01-01

    The Early Alerting and Reporting (EAR) project launched in 2008, is aimed at improving global early alerting and risk assessment and evaluating the feasibility and opportunity of integrating the analysis of biological, chemical, radio-nuclear (CBRN) and pandemic influenza threats. At a time when no international collaborations existed in the field of event based surveillance, EAR’s innovative approach consisted in the involvement of both epidemic intelligence experts and internet-based biosur...

  20. Postural threat influences vestibular-evoked muscular responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Shannon B; Cleworth, Taylor W; Horslen, Brian C; Blouin, Jean-Sébastien; Inglis, J Timothy; Carpenter, Mark G

    2017-02-01

    Standing balance is significantly influenced by postural threat. While this effect has been well established, the underlying mechanisms of the effect are less understood. The involvement of the vestibular system is under current debate, and recent studies that investigated the effects of height-induced postural threat on vestibular-evoked responses provide conflicting results based on kinetic (Horslen BC, Dakin CJ, Inglis JT, Blouin JS, Carpenter MG. J Physiol 592: 3671-3685, 2014) and kinematic (Osler CJ, Tersteeg MC, Reynolds RF, Loram ID. Eur J Neurosci 38: 3239-3247, 2013) data. We examined the effect of threat of perturbation, a different form of postural threat, on coupling (cross-correlation, coherence, and gain) of the vestibulo-muscular relationship in 25 participants who maintained standing balance. In the "No-Threat" conditions, participants stood quietly on a stable surface. In the "Threat" condition, participants' balance was threatened with unpredictable mediolateral support surface tilts. Quiet standing immediately before the surface tilts was compared to an equivalent time from the No-Threat conditions. Surface EMG was recorded from bilateral trunk, hip, and leg muscles. Hip and leg muscles exhibited significant increases in peak cross-correlation amplitudes, coherence, and gain (1.23-2.66×) in the Threat condition compared with No-Threat conditions, and significant correlations were observed between threat-related changes in physiological arousal and medium-latency peak cross-correlation amplitude in medial gastrocnemius (r = 0.408) muscles. These findings show a clear threat effect on vestibular-evoked responses in muscles in the lower body, with less robust effects of threat on trunk muscles. Combined with previous work, the present results can provide insight into observed changes during balance control in threatening situations.

  1. Bio-threat microparticle simulants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farquar, George Roy; Leif, Roald N

    2012-10-23

    A bio-threat simulant that includes a carrier and DNA encapsulated in the carrier. Also a method of making a simulant including the steps of providing a carrier and encapsulating DNA in the carrier to produce the bio-threat simulant.

  2. Bio-threat microparticle simulants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farquar, George Roy; Leif, Roald

    2014-09-16

    A bio-threat simulant that includes a carrier and DNA encapsulated in the carrier. Also a method of making a simulant including the steps of providing a carrier and encapsulating DNA in the carrier to produce the bio-threat simulant.

  3. Bias Adjusted Precipitation Threat Scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Mesinger

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Among the wide variety of performance measures available for the assessment of skill of deterministic precipitation forecasts, the equitable threat score (ETS might well be the one used most frequently. It is typically used in conjunction with the bias score. However, apart from its mathematical definition the meaning of the ETS is not clear. It has been pointed out (Mason, 1989; Hamill, 1999 that forecasts with a larger bias tend to have a higher ETS. Even so, the present author has not seen this having been accounted for in any of numerous papers that in recent years have used the ETS along with bias "as a measure of forecast accuracy".

    A method to adjust the threat score (TS or the ETS so as to arrive at their values that correspond to unit bias in order to show the model's or forecaster's accuracy in extit{placing} precipitation has been proposed earlier by the present author (Mesinger and Brill, the so-called dH/dF method. A serious deficiency however has since been noted with the dH/dF method in that the hypothetical function that it arrives at to interpolate or extrapolate the observed value of hits to unit bias can have values of hits greater than forecast when the forecast area tends to zero. Another method is proposed here based on the assumption that the increase in hits per unit increase in false alarms is proportional to the yet unhit area. This new method removes the deficiency of the dH/dF method. Examples of its performance for 12 months of forecasts by three NCEP operational models are given.

  4. Gauging U.S. Emergency Medical Services workers' willingness to respond to pandemic influenza using a threat- and efficacy-based assessment framework.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel J Barnett

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Emergency Medical Services workers' willingness to report to duty in an influenza pandemic is essential to healthcare system surge amidst a global threat. Application of Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM has shown utility for revealing influences of perceived threat and efficacy on non-EMS public health providers' willingness to respond in an influenza pandemic. We thus propose using an EPPM-informed assessment of EMS workers' perspectives toward fulfilling their influenza pandemic response roles. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We administered an EPPM-informed snapshot survey about attitudes and beliefs toward pandemic influenza response, to a nationally representative, stratified random sample of 1,537 U.S. EMS workers from May-June 2009 (overall response rate: 49%. Of the 586 respondents who met inclusion criteria (currently active EMS providers in primarily EMS response roles, 12% indicated they would not voluntarily report to duty in a pandemic influenza emergency if asked, 7% if required. A majority (52% indicated their unwillingness to report to work if risk of disease transmission to family existed. Confidence in personal safety at work (OR = 3.3 and a high threat/high efficacy ("concerned and confident" EPPM profile (OR = 4.7 distinguished those who were more likely to voluntarily report to duty. Although 96% of EMS workers indicated that they would probably or definitely report to work if they were guaranteed a pandemic influenza vaccine, only 59% had received an influenza immunization in the preceding 12 months. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: EMS workers' response willingness gaps pose a substantial challenge to prehospital surge capacity in an influenza pandemic. "Concerned and confident" EMS workers are more than four times as likely to fulfill pandemic influenza response expectations. Confidence in workplace safety is a positively influential modifier of their response willingness. These findings can inform

  5. Psychoanalysis and the nuclear threat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levine, H.B.; Jacobs, D.; Rubin, L.J.

    1988-01-01

    {ital Psychoanalysis and the Nuclear Threat} provides coverage of the dynamic and clinical considerations that follow from life in the nuclear age. Of special clinical interest are chapters dealing with the developmental consequences of the nuclear threat in childhood, adolescence, and adulthood, and those exploring the technical issues raised by the occurrence in analytic and psychotherapeutic hours of material related to the nuclear threat. Additional chapters bring a psychoanalytic perspective to bear on such issues as the need to have enemies, silence as the real crime, love, work, and survival in the nuclear age, the relationship of the nuclear threat to issues of mourning and melancholia, apocalyptic fantasies, the paranoid process, considerations of the possible impact of gender on the nuclear threat, and the application of psychoanalytic thinking to nuclear arms strategy. Finally, the volume includes the first case report in the English language---albeit a brief psychotherapy---involving the treatment of a Hiroshima survivor.

  6. Of guns and snakes: testing a modern threat superiority effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subra, Baptiste; Muller, Dominique; Fourgassie, Lisa; Chauvin, Alan; Alexopoulos, Theodore

    2017-02-03

    Previous studies suggest that ancient (i.e. evolutionary-based) threats capture attention because human beings possess an inborn module shaped by evolution and dedicated to their detection. An alternative account proposes that a key feature predicting whether a stimulus will capture attention is its relevance rather than its ontology (i.e. phylogenetic or ontogenetic threat). Within this framework, the present research deals with the attentional capture by threats commonly encountered in our urban environment. In two experiments, we investigate the attentional capture by modern threats (i.e. weapons). In Experiment 1, participants responded to a target preceded by a cue, which was a weapon or a non-threatening stimulus. We found a larger cuing effect (faster reaction times to valid vs. invalid trials) with weapons as compared with non-threatening cues. In Experiment 2, modern (e.g. weapons) and ancient threats (e.g. snakes) were pitted against one another as cues to determine which ones preferentially capture attention. Crucially, participants were faster to detect a target preceded by a modern as opposed to an ancient threat, providing initial evidence for a superiority of modern threat. Overall, the present findings appear more consistent with a relevance-based explanation rather than an evolutionary-based explanation of threat detection.

  7. Stereotype Threat as Validity Threat: The Anxiety-Sex-Threat Interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, Ana R.; Prieto, Gerardo

    2008-01-01

    Stereotype threat has been invoked to explain underperformance on a variety of groups for whom the stereotypes allege inferior cognitive abilities. In math testing, stereotype threat has been used to explain sex differences in test performance. This paper describes an experimental study on a large sample (n = 313), in which the role of anxiety and…

  8. An Object-Group Threat Assessment Method Based on Attribute Significance of Multi-Field Expert Systems%基于专家知识属性重要度的集群目标威胁评估方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黄大荣; 郭安学; 李云生; 徐红兵; 霍勇谋

    2009-01-01

    结合计算机网络和专家知识库集成技术,研究了集群目标威胁评估的一类新方法.首先,在给出多领域专家知识集成评估系统定义和集群目标威胁度赋值规则的基础上,结合统计方法和历史数据库建立专家知识属性重要度模型;然后,提出了该集成评估系统的运行规则,并结合多领域专家知识集成技术,构造了集群目标威胁评估的网络化评估系统;最后,仿真实验验证了系统的有效性和合理性.该系统成功应用于型号武器系统的实际工程实例表明,这种评估方法具有良好的更新能力和应用前景.%A new method of threat assessment to object-group was researched by combining computer network with integrated technology of experts' database. The attribute significance model of experts' database was presented by combining integrated system of multi-field experts and assignment rule of threat degree of object-group with statistical method and historical database; the network evaluation system used for evaluating object-group threat was constructed by the proposed operation rule of the system combined with multi-field experts knowledge intergrated technology; the simulation used for e-valuating object-group threat was performed by a certain type gun-missile intergrated air defense system. The simulated results show that the evaluation method has better updating capability and applied prospect.

  9. Modelling ultraviolet threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, I.

    2016-10-01

    Electro-optically (EO) guided surface to air missiles (SAM) have developed to use Ultraviolet (UV) wavebands supplementary to the more common Infrared (IR) wavebands. Missiles such as the US Stinger have been around for some time but are not considered a proliferation risk. The Chinese FN-16 and Russian SA-29 (Verba) are considered a much higher proliferation risk. As a result, models of the missile seekers must be developed to understand the characteristics of the seeker and the potential performance enhancement that are included. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to introduce the steps that have been taken to characterise and model these missiles. It begins by outlining some of the characteristics of the threats, the key elements of a UV scene, the potential choice of waveband for a detector, the initial modelling work to represent the UV detector of the missile and presents initial results. The modelling shows that the UV detection range of a typical aircraft is dependent on both the size of the aircraft and its reflectivity. However, the strength of this correlation is less than expected. As a result, further work is required to model more seeker types and to investigate what is causing the weak correlations found in these initial investigations. In addition, there needs to be further study of the sensitivities of the model to other variables, such as the modelled detectivity of the detector and the signal to noise ratio assumed. Overall, the outcome of this work will be to provide specifications for aircraft size and reflectivity that limit the effectiveness of the UV channels.

  10. 基于动态贝叶斯网络的空战目标威胁等级评估%Threat Level Assessment of the Air Combat Target Based on DBN

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    晏师励; 李德华

    2015-01-01

    During air combat ,the threat level assessment of the enemy's air targets to our military can help commander to make decisions ,but in the process of the war ,information has a high degree of uncertainty .Bayesian Networks has the advantages of dealing with the uncertain and complex issue ,in this paper ,Dynamic Bayesian Networks are combined with threat assessment model to establish a model which is used for assessmenting threat level .The software Netica that can infer Bayesian Networks on the network model is used to have a experiment ,the results show that the model based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks can effectively assessment the threat level of air combat targets to our army .%空战过程中,敌方空军目标对我军的威胁等级评估可以帮助指挥员进行决策,而战争过程中,信息具有高度不确定性。贝叶斯网络具有处理不确定复杂问题的优点,论文将动态贝叶斯网络与威胁评估模型相结合,建立了用于评估威胁等级的模型。利用贝叶斯网络推理软件 Netica 在该网络模型上进行实验,实验结果表明基于动态贝叶斯网络的模型能有效地对空战中目标对我军的威胁等级进行评估。

  11. UNIX-based operating systems robustness evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yu-Ming

    1996-01-01

    Robust operating systems are required for reliable computing. Techniques for robustness evaluation of operating systems not only enhance the understanding of the reliability of computer systems, but also provide valuable feed- back to system designers. This thesis presents results from robustness evaluation experiments on five UNIX-based operating systems, which include Digital Equipment's OSF/l, Hewlett Packard's HP-UX, Sun Microsystems' Solaris and SunOS, and Silicon Graphics' IRIX. Three sets of experiments were performed. The methodology for evaluation tested (1) the exception handling mechanism, (2) system resource management, and (3) system capacity under high workload stress. An exception generator was used to evaluate the exception handling mechanism of the operating systems. Results included exit status of the exception generator and the system state. Resource management techniques used by individual operating systems were tested using programs designed to usurp system resources such as physical memory and process slots. Finally, the workload stress testing evaluated the effect of the workload on system performance by running a synthetic workload and recording the response time of local and remote user requests. Moderate to severe performance degradations were observed on the systems under stress.

  12. Global Threats to Child Safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mace, Sharon E

    2016-02-01

    Children have rights, as enumerated in the Declaration of the Rights of the Child, and need protection from violence, exploitation, and abuse. Global threats to child safety exist. These threats include lack of basic needs (food, clean water, sanitation), maltreatment, abandonment, child labor, child marriage, female genital mutilation, child trafficking, disasters, and armed conflicts/wars. Recent disasters and armed conflicts have led to a record number of displaced people especially children and their families. Strategies and specific programs can be developed and implemented for eliminating threats to the safety of children.

  13. ONTOLOGY BASED QUALITY EVALUATION FOR SPATIAL DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Yılmaz

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Many institutions will be providing data to the National Spatial Data Infrastructure (NSDI. Current technical background of the NSDI is based on syntactic web services. It is expected that this will be replaced by semantic web services. The quality of the data provided is important in terms of the decision-making process and the accuracy of transactions. Therefore, the data quality needs to be tested. This topic has been neglected in Turkey. Data quality control for NSDI may be done by private or public “data accreditation” institutions. A methodology is required for data quality evaluation. There are studies for data quality including ISO standards, academic studies and software to evaluate spatial data quality. ISO 19157 standard defines the data quality elements. Proprietary software such as, 1Spatial’s 1Validate and ESRI’s Data Reviewer offers quality evaluation based on their own classification of rules. Commonly, rule based approaches are used for geospatial data quality check. In this study, we look for the technical components to devise and implement a rule based approach with ontologies using free and open source software in semantic web context. Semantic web uses ontologies to deliver well-defined web resources and make them accessible to end-users and processes. We have created an ontology conforming to the geospatial data and defined some sample rules to show how to test data with respect to data quality elements including; attribute, topo-semantic and geometrical consistency using free and open source software. To test data against rules, sample GeoSPARQL queries are created, associated with specifications.

  14. A Tale of Two Threats: Social Anxiety and Attention to Social Threat as a Function of Social Exclusion and Non-Exclusion Threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckner, Julia D; Dewall, C Nathan; Schmidt, Norman B; Maner, Jon K

    2010-10-01

    To attain and maintain social acceptance, people may attend to cues of possible social rejection or exclusion. Attention to such cues can be influenced by social anxiety. Two competing theories address social anxiety and attention: hypervigilance to versus avoidance of negative social cues. We propose a synthesis of these models such that, in the absence of social exclusion, socially anxious people may be hypervigilant to negative social cues. However, after experiencing social exclusion, they may avoid negative cues in favor of cues signaling social acceptance. Eyetracking was used to examine attention to negative, happy, and neutral faces after social exclusion threat or a non-exclusion threat (N = 27, 69.2% female). Fear of negative evaluation, a core component of social anxiety, was assessed using the Brief Fear of Negative Evaluation (BFNE) scale (Leary 1983). Among individuals with high BFNE, non-exclusion threat elicited greater attention toward negative faces than did social exclusion threat. However, social exclusion threat relative to non-exclusion threat was related to greater attention to positive faces among those with high BFNE. These effects were not observed among those with low BFNE. Thus, data provide preliminary support for a synthesized model.

  15. The level of knowledge about parasitic diseases and the threats resulting from their presence in the environment evaluated in a group of parents of preschool children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gniadek, Agnieszka; Cepuch, Grażyna; Ochender, Katarzyna; Salamon, Dominika

    2015-01-01

    Despite a significant civilization advancement, parasitic diseases still pose a serious diagnostic and therapeutic problem. Children's susceptibility to these infections stems from their immature immune system and lack of basic hygiene routines. The objective of the study was to evaluate the level of knowledge which parents of preschool children's possess about parasitic diseases in their children's environment. The study was carried out in the group of 151 parents of preschool children living both in the city and in the country. The survey was carried out by means of a diagnostic poll with the application of a self-designed research questionnaire. To make the evaluation even more objective, a special scale was created in which parents could score points for their answers (0 - wrong answer, 1 - correct answer). The total number of points ranging from 0 to 9 indicated an unsatisfactory level of knowledge, from 10 to 13 - satisfactory level, from 14 to 16 - good level and from 17 to 20 - very good level of parents' awareness. The results of the study reveal that the level of parents' knowledge about parasitic diseases is only satisfactory. A statistically significant relationship was observed between the variables such as education and sex. The higher education, the higher level of knowledge. Moreover, women were more knowledgeable in the field of parasitic diseases than men were. Financial status of the family did not influence the level of parents' awareness. Well-planned educational programmes might have a positive influence on developing proper hygiene routines in families, which, in turn, will limit the risk of spreading parasitoses in the population of children.

  16. Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan E. Chamberlain

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds. For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community.

  17. Cloud reasoning threat assessment based on analytic network process%结合网络层次分析法的云推理威胁评估模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高杨; 李东生; 雍爱霞

    2016-01-01

    针对传统的威胁评估方法存在指标数据冗余、指标权值设置合理性、推理有效性等问题,建立结合网络层次分析法的云推理威胁评估模型,能够合理精简指标,有效优化推理规则。将该模型用于目标识别系统的威胁评估,首先给出威胁评估指标,用网络层次分析法精简指标并得到规范化权值;构建指标云模型,将规范后的指标数据输入前件云发生器,建立推理规则库,引入分级结构简化规则数,运用加权扎德算子实现规则的合成,将合成结果输入后件云发生器得到威胁度云滴,经多次重复操作后,处理数据得到系统威胁度。最后,以实例说明方法的有效性。%There were some problems in the traditional threat assessment method,such as the index data redundancy,index weight unreasonable and bad reasoning effectiveness.So the cloud reasoning threat assessment model based on analytic network process(ANP)was constructed,which could simplify the reasoning indexes and optimize the inference rules.The model was used to assess the threat degree of different target recognition systems.Firstly,the reasoning indicators were given and simpli-fied by ANP model.Then indexes cloud model were constructed and the standardized indicators data were put into the anteced-ent cloud generators.Then the reasoning rules were constructed which could be reduced by classification structure.The rules were synthetic by weighted Zadeh operator and the synthetic results were put into consequent cloud generator to get the threat degree cloud droplet.After repeating the operation,the system threat degree could be gotten.Finally,the example shows the method is effective and reasonable.

  18. How Moral Threat Shapes Laypersons' Engagement With Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, Jens; Rothmund, Tobias; Nauroth, Peter; Gollwitzer, Mario

    2016-12-01

    Laypersons' engagement with science has grown over the last decade, especially in Internet environments. While this development has many benefits, scientists also face the challenge of devaluation and public criticism by laypersons. Embedding this phenomenon in social-psychological theories and research on value-behavior correspondence, we investigated moral threat as a factor influencing laypersons' engagement with science. Across three studies, we hypothesized and found that moral values shape the way laypersons evaluate and communicate about science when these values are threatened in a given situation and central to people's self-concept. However, prior research on the underlying mechanism of moral threat effects cannot fully rule out value salience as an alternative explanation. To close this gap, we situationally induced value salience while varying the degree of moral threat (Study 3). Our findings indicate that moral threat amplifies the influence of moral values on laypersons' evaluation of science above and beyond value salience.

  19. Effective Utilization of Multicore Processor for Unified Threat Management Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radhakrishnan Shanmugasundaram

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Multicore and multithreaded CPUs have become the new approach for increase in the performance of the processor based systems. Numerous applications benefit from use of multiple cores. Unified threat management is one such application that has multiple functions to be implemented at high speeds. Increasing performance of the system by knowing the nature of the functionality and effective utilization of multiple processors for each of the functions warrants detailed experimentation. In this study, some of the functions of Unified Threat Management are implemented using multiple processors for each of the functions. Approach: This evaluation was conducted on SunfireT1000 server having Sun Ultras ARC T1 multicore processor. OpenMP parallelization methods are used for scheduling the logical CPUs for the parallelized application. Results: Execution time for some of the UTM functions implemented was analyzed to arrive at an effective allocation and parallelization methodology that is dependent on the hardware and the workload. Conclusion/Recommendations: Based on the analysis, the type of parallelization method for the implemented UTM functions are suggested.

  20. Evaluation of the threat of marine CO{sub 2} leakage-associated acidification on the toxicity of sediment metals to juvenile bivalves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basallote, M. Dolores, E-mail: dolores.basallote@uca.es [Cátedra UNESCO/UNITWIN WiCop, Departamento de Química-Física, Facultad de Ciencias del Mar y Ambientales, Universidad de Cádiz, Polígono Río San Pedro s/n, 11510 Puerto Real, Cádiz (Spain); Rodríguez-Romero, Araceli [Departamento de Ecología y Gestión Costera, Instituto de Ciencias Marinas de Andalucía (CSIC), Campus Río San Pedro, 11510 Puerto Real, Cádiz (Spain); De Orte, Manoela R.; Del Valls, T. Ángel; Riba, Inmaculada [Cátedra UNESCO/UNITWIN WiCop, Departamento de Química-Física, Facultad de Ciencias del Mar y Ambientales, Universidad de Cádiz, Polígono Río San Pedro s/n, 11510 Puerto Real, Cádiz (Spain)

    2015-09-15

    Highlights: • Short-term tests using juveniles of bivalves to study the effects of CO{sub 2} dissolved. • CO{sub 2} causes effects if the threshold concentration of the organism is overlapped. • Flows of escaped CO{sub 2} would affect the geochemical composition of sediment–seawater. • CO{sub 2}-induced acidification would affect differently to marine sediment toxicity. - Abstract: The effects of the acidification associated with CO{sub 2} leakage from sub-seabed geological storage was studied by the evaluation of the short-term effects of CO{sub 2}-induced acidification on juveniles of the bivalve Ruditapes philippinarum. Laboratory scale experiments were performed using a CO{sub 2}-bubbling system designed to conduct ecotoxicological assays. The organisms were exposed for 10 days to elutriates of sediments collected in different littoral areas that were subjected to various pH treatments (pH 7.1, 6.6, 6.1). The acute pH-associated effects on the bivalves were observed, and the dissolved metals in the elutriates were measured. The median toxic effect pH was calculated, which ranged from 6.33 to 6.45. The amount of dissolved Zn in the sediment elutriates increased in parallel with the pH reductions and was correlated with the proton concentrations. The pH, the pCO{sub 2} and the dissolved metal concentrations (Zn and Fe) were linked with the mortality of the exposed bivalves.

  1. Biosecurity and vector behaviour: evaluating the potential threat posed by anglers and canoeists as pathways for the spread of invasive non-native species and pathogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Lucy G; White, Piran C L; Stebbing, Paul D; Stentiford, Grant D; Dunn, Alison M

    2014-01-01

    Invasive non-native species (INNS) endanger native biodiversity and are a major economic problem. The management of pathways to prevent their introduction and establishment is a key target in the Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi biodiversity targets for 2020. Freshwater environments are particularly susceptible to invasions as they are exposed to multiple introduction pathways, including non-native fish stocking and the release of boat ballast water. Since many freshwater INNS and aquatic pathogens can survive for several days in damp environments, there is potential for transport between water catchments on the equipment used by recreational anglers and canoeists. To quantify this biosecurity risk, we conducted an online questionnaire with 960 anglers and 599 canoeists to investigate their locations of activity, equipment used, and how frequently equipment was cleaned and/or dried after use. Anglers were also asked about their use and disposal of live bait. Our results indicate that 64% of anglers and 78.5% of canoeists use their equipment/boat in more than one catchment within a fortnight, the survival time of many of the INNS and pathogens considered in this study and that 12% of anglers and 50% of canoeists do so without either cleaning or drying their kit between uses. Furthermore, 8% of anglers and 28% of canoeists had used their equipment overseas without cleaning or drying it after each use which could facilitate both the introduction and secondary spread of INNS in the UK. Our results provide a baseline against which to evaluate the effectiveness of future biosecurity awareness campaigns, and identify groups to target with biosecurity awareness information. Our results also indicate that the biosecurity practices of these groups must improve to reduce the likelihood of inadvertently spreading INNS and pathogens through these activities.

  2. Prevalence of the crayfish plague pathogen Aphanomyces astaci in populations of the signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus in France: evaluating the threat to native crayfish.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lenka Filipová

    Full Text Available Aphanomyces astaci, the crayfish plague pathogen, first appeared in Europe in the mid-19(th century and is still responsible for mass mortalities of native European crayfish. The spread of this parasite across the continent is especially facilitated by invasive North American crayfish species that serve as its reservoir. In France, multiple cases of native crayfish mortalities have been suggested to be connected with the presence of the signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus, which is highly abundant in the country. It shares similar habitats as the native white-clawed crayfish Austropotamobius pallipes and, when infected, the signal crayfish might therefore easily transmit the pathogen to the native species. We investigated the prevalence of A. astaci in French signal crayfish populations to evaluate the danger they represent to local populations of native crayfish. Over 500 individuals of Pacifastacus leniusculus from 45 French populations were analysed, plus several additional individuals of other non-indigenous crayfish species Orconectes limosus, O. immunis and Procambarus clarkii. Altogether, 20% of analysed signal crayfish tested positive for Aphanomyces astaci, and the pathogen was detected in more than half of the studied populations. Local prevalence varied significantly, ranging from 0% up to 80%, but wide confidence intervals suggest that the number of populations infected by A. astaci may be even higher than our results show. Analysis of several individuals of other introduced species revealed infections among two of these, O. immunis and P. clarkii. Our results confirm that the widespread signal crayfish serves as a key reservoir of Aphanomyces astaci in France and therefore represents a serious danger to native crayfish species, especially the white-clawed crayfish. The prevalence in other non-indigenous crayfish should also be investigated as they likely contribute to pathogen transmission in the country.

  3. Cyber Conflicts as a New Global Threat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Kosenkov

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an attempt is made to analyze the potential threats and consequences of cyber conflicts and, in particular, the risks of a global cyber conflict. The material is based on a comprehensive analysis of the nature of cyber conflict and its elements from both technical and societal points of view. The approach used in the paper considers the societal component as an essential part of cyber conflicts, allowing basics of cyber conflicts often disregarded by researchers and the public to be highlighted. Finally, the conclusion offers an opportunity to consider cyber conflict as the most advanced form of modern warfare, which imposes the most serious threat and whose effect could be comparable to weapons of mass destruction.

  4. Detecting underwater improvised explosive threats (DUIET)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feeley, Terry

    2010-04-01

    Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) have presented a major threat in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. These devices are powerful homemade land mines that can be small and easily hidden near roadsides. They are then remotely detonated when Coalition Forces pass by either singly or in convoys. Their rapid detection, classification and destruction is key to the safety of troops in the area. These land based bombs will have an analogue in the underwater theater especially in ports, lakes, rivers and streams. These devices may be used against Americans on American soil as an element of the global war on terrorism (GWOT) Rapid detection and classification of underwater improvised explosive devices (UIED) is critical to protecting innocent lives and maintaining the day to day flow of commerce. This paper will discuss a strategy and tool set to deal with this potential threat.

  5. Threat image projection in CCTV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neil, David; Thomas, Nicola; Baker, Bob

    2007-10-01

    Operators are key components in a Closed Circuit Television (CCTV) system, being the link between the system technology and its effective use. Operators' performance will largely determine the level of service provided by the system. There have been few studies testing operator performance, while much work has been done to test the performance of the technology. Previous work on CCTV operator performance carried out by the Home Office Scientific Development Branch (HOSDB) has used filmed video and subjects who knew they were undergoing testing, meaning subjects are likely to be concentrating harder on performing well. HOSDB believes that there is a need for a test that would be able to be routinely used in a CCTV control room throughout the course of a normal shift to provide management with operational performance data. Threat Image Projection (TIP) is routinely used in X-Ray baggage scanners to keep operators alert to possible threats. At random intervals, a threat target image is superimposed over the image of the baggage being screened. The operator then responds to this threat. A similar system could be used for CCTV operators. A threat image would be randomly superimposed over the live CCTV feed and the operator would be expected to respond to this.

  6. Evaluating Theory-Based Evaluation: Information, Norms, and Adherence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, W. Jake; Sisco, Melissa; Hill, Dawn; Malter, Frederic; Figueredo, Aurelio Jose

    2012-01-01

    Programmatic social interventions attempt to produce appropriate social-norm-guided behavior in an open environment. A marriage of applicable psychological theory, appropriate program evaluation theory, and outcome of evaluations of specific social interventions assures the acquisition of cumulative theory and the production of successful social…

  7. Rainwater harvesting: model-based design evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, S; Memon, F A; Butler, D

    2010-01-01

    The rate of uptake of rainwater harvesting (RWH) in the UK has been slow to date, but is expected to gain momentum in the near future. The designs of two different new-build rainwater harvesting systems, based on simple methods, are evaluated using three different design methods, including a continuous simulation modelling approach. The RWH systems are shown to fulfill 36% and 46% of WC demand. Financial analyses reveal that RWH systems within large commercial buildings maybe more financially viable than smaller domestic systems. It is identified that design methods based on simple approaches generate tank sizes substantially larger than the continuous simulation. Comparison of the actual tank sizes and those calculated using continuous simulation established that the tanks installed are oversized for their associated demand level and catchment size. Oversizing tanks can lead to excessive system capital costs, which currently hinders the uptake of systems. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the catchment area size is often overlooked when designing UK-based RWH systems. With respect to these findings, a recommendation for a transition from the use of simple tools to continuous simulation models is made.

  8. A Probabilistic Analysis Framework for Malicious Insider Threats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Taolue; Kammuller, Florian; Nemli, Ibrahim

    2015-01-01

    threats, based on probabilistic modelling, verification, and synthesis techniques. The framework first identifies insiders’ intention to perform an inside attack, using Bayesian networks, and in a second phase computes the probability of success for an inside attack by this actor, using probabilistic......Malicious insider threats are difficult to detect and to mitigate. Many approaches for explaining behaviour exist, but there is little work to relate them to formal approaches to insider threat detection. In this work we present a general formal framework to perform analysis for malicious insider...

  9. Familiarity Threat Arguement Revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warming-Rasmussen, Bent; Aschauer, Ewald

    2013-01-01

    -reliance on the clients’ abilities do. The long-term engagement of the audit firm and relationships characterized by strong identification-based trust, however, contribute to a climate of professional skepticism. Besides the theoretical contribution, the practical implications of our findings for (re)designing...

  10. 基于生态威胁的湖泊生态安全指标体系研究%Study on the Index System of Lake Ecological Security Based on Ecological Threats

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱凌; 王举位; 桂凌; 张征; 闫国振

    2011-01-01

    Based on the analysis of different levels of ecological security definitions, the lake ecological security was identified by reverse thinking as the lake kept sustainable development under various ecological threats and its form of embodying was each index changes dynamically within the range of sustainable development. The theory and model of lake ecological threats were proposed and Delphi method was applied to divide the characteristics of lake ecological threats into eutrophication, lake shrinkage and water pollution. On this basis, by the methods of analytical hierarchy process and principle component analysis, the lake ecological security index system involving 35 indexes were assessed so as to construct lake ecological security indicator system.%在分析不同层次生态安全定义的基础上,采用逆向思维定义了湖泊生态安全,即湖泊在各种生态威胁冲击下仍保持可持续发展的状态,其表现形式为湖泊各项指标在可持续发展范围内的动态波动;提出了湖泊生态威胁理论与模型,并采用德尔菲法把湖泊生态威胁特征分为富营养化、湖泊萎缩和水污染,基于此通过层次分析法和主成分分析法筛选出了评价湖泊生态安全的35个指标,从而构建了湖泊生态安全指标体系.

  11. Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

    2016-07-01

    Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction.

  12. Cyber threats within civil aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heitner, Kerri A.

    Existing security policies in civil aviation do not adequately protect against evolving cyber threats. Cybersecurity has been recognized as a top priority among some aviation industry leaders. Heightened concerns regarding cyber threats and vulnerabilities surround components utilized in compliance with the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Next Generation Air Transportation (NextGen) implementation. Automated Dependent Surveillance-B (ADS-B) and Electronic Flight Bags (EFB) have both been exploited through the research of experienced computer security professionals. Civil aviation is essential to international infrastructure and if its critical assets were compromised, it could pose a great risk to public safety and financial infrastructure. The purpose of this research was to raise awareness of aircraft system vulnerabilities in order to provoke change among current national and international cybersecurity policies, procedures and standards. Although the education of cyber threats is increasing in the aviation industry, there is not enough urgency when creating cybersecurity policies. This project intended to answer the following questions: What are the cyber threats to ADS-B of an aircraft in-flight? What are the cyber threats to EFB? What is the aviation industry's response to the issue of cybersecurity and in-flight safety? ADS-B remains unencrypted while the FAA's mandate to implement this system is rapidly approaching. The cyber threat of both portable and non-portable EFB's have received increased publicity, however, airlines are not responding quick enough (if at all) to create policies for the use of these devices. Collectively, the aviation industry is not being proactive enough to protect its aircraft or airport network systems. That is not to say there are not leaders in cybersecurity advancement. These proactive organizations must set the standard for the future to better protect society and it's most reliable form of transportation.

  13. Insider Threat Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-01

    emphasizes endogenous viewpoint • “System” boundary is defined based on scope of the problem • Includes soft as well as hard factors • Different than...variable representing a pool of materials, money , people, or other resources. Flow – special variable representing a process that directly adds to...unknown paths forgetting paths discovering for technical sabotage S Insider risk perceived by org auditing S S insider access path creation

  14. Environmental metabolomics: a SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Marion G

    2007-02-01

    Metabolomic approaches have the potential to make an exceptional contribution to understanding how chemicals and other environmental stressors can affect both human and environmental health. However, the application of metabolomics to environmental exposures, although getting underway, has not yet been extensively explored. This review will use a SWOT analysis model to discuss some of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats that are apparent to an investigator venturing into this relatively new field. SWOT has been used extensively in business settings to uncover new outlooks and identify problems that would impede progress. The field of environmental metabolomics provides great opportunities for discovery, and this is recognized by a high level of interest in potential applications. However, understanding the biological consequence of environmental exposures can be confounded by inter- and intra-individual differences. Metabolomic profiles can yield a plethora of data, the interpretation of which is complex and still being evaluated and researched. The development of the field will depend on the availability of technologies for data handling and that permit ready access metabolomic databases. Understanding the relevance of metabolomic endpoints to organism health vs adaptation vs variation is an important step in understanding what constitutes a substantive environmental threat. Metabolomic applications in reproductive research are discussed. Overall, the development of a comprehensive mechanistic-based interpretation of metabolomic changes offers the possibility of providing information that will significantly contribute to the protection of human health and the environment.

  15. Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bull, J. W.; Jobstvogt, N.; Böhnke-Henrichs, A.;

    2016-01-01

    environmental awareness. Threats include resistance to change, and difficulty with interdisciplinary collaboration. Consideration of SWOT themes suggested five strategic areas for developing and implementing ES.The ES concept could improve decision-making related to natural resource use, and interpretation...... facilitate interdisciplinary research, ensuring decision-making that supports sustainable development........ Such an assessment could form the basis for improving ES thinking, further embedding it into environmental decisions and management.The Young Ecosystem Services Specialists (YESS) completed a Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats (SWOT) analysis of ES through YESS member surveys. Strengths include the approach...

  16. Information fusion: telling the story (or threat narrative)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenstermacher, Laurie

    2014-06-01

    Today's operators face a "double whammy" - the need to process increasing amounts of information, including "Twitter-INT"1 (social information such as Facebook, You-Tube videos, blogs, Twitter) as well as the need to discern threat signatures in new security environments, including those in which the airspace is contested. To do this will require the Air Force to "fuse and leverage its vast capabilities in new ways."2 For starters, the integration of quantitative and qualitative information must be done in a way that preserves important contextual information since the goal increasingly is to identify and mitigate violence before it occurs. To do so requires a more nuanced understanding of the environment being sensed, including the human environment, ideally from the "emic" perspective; that is, from the perspective of that individual or group. This requires not only data and information that informs the understanding of how the individuals and/or groups see themselves and others (social identity) but also information on how that identity filters information in their environment which, in turn, shapes their behaviors.3 The goal is to piece together the individual and/or collective narratives regarding threat, the threat narrative, from various sources of information. Is there a threat? If so, what is it? What is motivating the threat? What is the intent of those who pose the threat and what are their capabilities and their vulnerabilities?4 This paper will describe preliminary investigations regarding the application of prototype hybrid information fusion method based on the threat narrative framework.

  17. Modeling threat assessments of water supply systems using markov latent effects methodology.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Consuelo Juanita

    2006-12-01

    Recent amendments to the Safe Drinking Water Act emphasize efforts toward safeguarding our nation's water supplies against attack and contamination. Specifically, the Public Health Security and Bioterrorism Preparedness and Response Act of 2002 established requirements for each community water system serving more than 3300 people to conduct an assessment of the vulnerability of its system to a terrorist attack or other intentional acts. Integral to evaluating system vulnerability is the threat assessment, which is the process by which the credibility of a threat is quantified. Unfortunately, full probabilistic assessment is generally not feasible, as there is insufficient experience and/or data to quantify the associated probabilities. For this reason, an alternative approach is proposed based on Markov Latent Effects (MLE) modeling, which provides a framework for quantifying imprecise subjective metrics through possibilistic or fuzzy mathematics. Here, an MLE model for water systems is developed and demonstrated to determine threat assessments for different scenarios identified by the assailant, asset, and means. Scenario assailants include terrorists, insiders, and vandals. Assets include a water treatment plant, water storage tank, node, pipeline, well, and a pump station. Means used in attacks include contamination (onsite chemicals, biological and chemical), explosives and vandalism. Results demonstrated highest threats are vandalism events and least likely events are those performed by a terrorist.

  18. Metabolism-based herbicide resistance and cross-resistance in crop weeds: a threat to herbicide sustainability and global crop production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Qin; Powles, Stephen

    2014-11-01

    Weedy plant species that have evolved resistance to herbicides due to enhanced metabolic capacity to detoxify herbicides (metabolic resistance) are a major issue. Metabolic herbicide resistance in weedy plant species first became evident in the 1980s in Australia (in Lolium rigidum) and the United Kingdom (in Alopecurus myosuroides) and is now increasingly recognized in several crop-weed species as a looming threat to herbicide sustainability and thus world crop production. Metabolic resistance often confers resistance to herbicides of different chemical groups and sites of action and can extend to new herbicide(s). Cytochrome P450 monooxygenase, glycosyl transferase, and glutathione S-transferase are often implicated in herbicide metabolic resistance. However, precise biochemical and molecular genetic elucidation of metabolic resistance had been stalled until recently. Complex cytochrome P450 superfamilies, high genetic diversity in metabolic resistant weedy plant species (especially cross-pollinated species), and the complexity of genetic control of metabolic resistance have all been barriers to advances in understanding metabolic herbicide resistance. However, next-generation sequencing technologies and transcriptome-wide gene expression profiling are now revealing the genes endowing metabolic herbicide resistance in plants. This Update presents an historical review to current understanding of metabolic herbicide resistance evolution in weedy plant species.

  19. 基于行为的内网安全威胁检测系统在电力企业的应用%BasedBehavioroftheNetworkSecurityThreatDetectionSystemAppliedintheElectricEnterprises

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周祥峰

    2013-01-01

      介绍了一种基于行为的内网安全威胁检测系统在电力企业的应用,该成果能够检测第2层第7层数据流量,检测内网安全威胁,解决了传统IDS、IPS对于应用层难以监控,难以监控危险源、病毒源的难题。以某电力企业为例,阐述了其技术特点,部署方案,以及应用效果和推广前景。%This article describes a threat detection system based on the behavior of internal network security in the application of electric power enterprises, the outcomes can detect layer 2 to layer 7 data traffic detection within the network security threats, to solve the traditional IDS, IPS application layer is difficult monitoring, it is difficult to monitor the problem of dangerous source, virus source. In this paper, a power enterprise on its technical characteristics, deployment scenarios, and apply effects and promotion prospects.

  20. Understanding Cyber Threats and Vulnerabilities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luiijf, H.A.M.

    2012-01-01

    This chapter reviews current and anticipated cyber-related threats to the Critical Information Infrastructure (CII) and Critical Infrastructures (CI). The potential impact of cyber-terrorism to CII and CI has been coined many times since the term was first coined during the 1980s. Being the relevanc

  1. Threat from Emerging Vectorborne Viruses

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2016-06-09

    Reginald Tucker reads an abridged version of the commentary by CDC author Ronald Rosenberg, Threat from Emerging Vectorborne Viruses.  Created: 6/9/2016 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 6/9/2016.

  2. Cyber Threats to Nuclear Infrastructures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert S. Anderson; Paul Moskowitz; Mark Schanfein; Trond Bjornard; Curtis St. Michel

    2010-07-01

    Nuclear facility personnel expend considerable efforts to ensure that their facilities can maintain continuity of operations against both natural and man-made threats. Historically, most attention has been placed on physical security. Recently however, the threat of cyber-related attacks has become a recognized and growing world-wide concern. Much attention has focused on the vulnerability of the electric grid and chemical industries to cyber attacks, in part, because of their use of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems. Lessons learned from work in these sectors indicate that the cyber threat may extend to other critical infrastructures including sites where nuclear and radiological materials are now stored. In this context, this white paper presents a hypothetical scenario by which a determined adversary launches a cyber attack that compromises the physical protection system and results in a reduced security posture at such a site. The compromised security posture might then be malevolently exploited in a variety of ways. The authors conclude that the cyber threat should be carefully considered for all nuclear infrastructures.

  3. The threat of soil salinity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daliakopoulos, I.N.; Tsanis, I.K.; Koutroulis, A.; Kourgialas, N.N.; Varouchakis, A.E.; Karatzas, G.P.; Ritsema, C.J.

    2016-01-01

    Soil salinisation is one of the major soil degradation threats occurring in Europe. The effects of salinisation can be observed in numerous vital ecological and non-ecological soil functions. Drivers of salinisation can be detected both in the natural and man-made environment, with climate and th

  4. Detecting Security threats in the Router using Computational Intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Visumathi, J

    2010-01-01

    nformation security is an issue of global concern. As the Internet is delivering great convenience and benefits to the modern society, the rapidly increasing connectivity and accessibility to the Internet is also posing a serious threat to security and privacy, to individuals, organizations, and nations alike. Finding effective ways to detect, prevent, and respond to intrusions and hacker attacks of networked computers and information systems. This paper presents a knowledge discovery frame work to detect DoS attacks at the boundary controllers (routers). The idea is to use machine learning approach to discover network features that can depict the state of the network connection. Using important network data (DoS relevant features), we have developed kernel machine based and soft computing detection mechanisms that achieve high detection accuracies. We also present our work of identifying DoS pertinent features and evaluating the applicability of these features in detecting novel DoS attacks. Architecture for...

  5. Psychological and Cortisol Responses to and Recovery From Exposure to a Body Image Threat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larkin Lamarche

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The majority of body image research has failed to measure what occurs beyond the immediate presentation of a body image threat, or after a body image threat is no longer present. This is particularly true for physiological outcomes. The present study examined psychological and cortisol responses to, and recovery from, a body composition assessment as a social-evaluative body image threat. Women (N = 64 were randomized into either a control or threat group. Participants completed a measure of social physique anxiety and provided a sample of saliva (to assess cortisol at baseline, and immediately following and 20 min following their condition. The threat group reported higher social physique anxiety following the threat in comparison with both baseline levels and recovery levels. Cortisol was higher immediately following the threat in comparison with baseline levels. Findings support the inclusion of a recovery time point in body image research to provide a more complete picture of the psychobiology of body image experiences.

  6. Dengue: a global threat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thisyakorn, Usa; Thisyakorn, Chule

    2015-01-01

    Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is currently an expanding global problem. The disease is caused by four closely related dengue serotypes; it ranges from asymptomatic infection to undifferentiated fever, dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). DHF is characterized by fever, bleeding diathesis and a tendency to develop apotentially fatal shock syndrome. Dengue infection with organ impairment mainly involves the central nervous system and liver. Consistent hematological findings include vasculopathy, coagulopathy and thrombocytopenia. Laboratory diagnoses include virus isolation, serology, and detection ofdengue ribonucleic acid. Successful treatment, which is mainly supportive, depends on early recognition of the disease and careful monitoring for shock. A severity-based revised dengue classification for medical interventions has been developed and validated in many countries. So far however, there has not been any specific dengue treatment; prevention is currently limited to vector control measures. The world's first, large-scale dengue vaccine, efficacy study demonstrated its efficacy and a reduction of dengue's severity in a study of more than 10,000 volunteers in Asia. Initial safety data are consistent with a good safety profile.

  7. DENGUE: GLOBAL THREAT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thisyakorn, Usa; Thisyakorn, Chule

    2015-01-01

    Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease, which is currently an expanding global problem. Four closely related dengue serotypes cause the disease, which ranges from asymptomatic infection to undifferentiated fever, dengue fever (DF), and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). DHF is characterized by fever, bleeding diathesis, and a tendency to develop a potentially fatal shock syndrome. Dengue infection with organ impairment mainly involves the central nervous system and the liver. Consistent hematological findings include vasculopathy, coagulopathy, and thrombocytopenia. Laboratory diagnosis includes virus isolation, serology, and detection of dengue ribonucleic acid. Successful treatment, which is mainly supportive, depends on early recognition of the disease and careful monitoring for shock. A severity-based revised dengue classification for medical interventions has been developed and validated in many countries. There is no specific dengue treatment, and prevention is currently limited to vector control measures. The world's first, large-scale dengue vaccine efficacy study demonstrated its efficacy and a reduction of dengue disease severity with a good safety profile in a study of more than 30,000 volunteers from Asia and Latin America.

  8. New Frontiers of Network Security: The Threat Within

    CERN Document Server

    Sanyal, Sugata; Gupta, Amit

    2010-01-01

    Nearly 70% of information security threats originate from inside an organization. Opportunities for insider threats have been increasing at an alarming rate with the latest trends of mobility (portable devices like Laptop, smart phones etc.), ubiquitous connectivity (wireless or through 3G connectivity) and this trend increases as more and more web-based applications are made available over the Internet. Insider threats are generally caused by current or ex-employees, contractors or partners, who have authorized access to the organization's network and servers. Theft of confidential information is often for either material gain or for willful damage. Easy availability of hacking tools on the Internet, USB devices and wireless connectivity provide for easy break-ins. The net result is losses worth millions of dollars in terms of IP theft, leakage of customer / individual information, etc. This paper presents an understanding of Insider threats, attackers and their motives and suggests mitigation techniques at ...

  9. Team Primacy Concept (TPC) Based Employee Evaluation and Job Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muniute, Eivina I.; Alfred, Mary V.

    2007-01-01

    This qualitative study explored how employees learn from Team Primacy Concept (TPC) based employee evaluation and how they use the feedback in performing their jobs. TPC based evaluation is a form of multirater evaluation, during which the employee's performance is discussed by one's peers in a face-to-face team setting. The study used Kolb's…

  10. Cybersecurity Public Sector Threats and Responses

    CERN Document Server

    Andreasson, Kim J

    2011-01-01

    The Internet has given rise to new opportunities for the public sector to improve efficiency and better serve constituents in the form of e-government. But with a rapidly growing user base globally and an increasing reliance on the Internet, digital tools are also exposing the public sector to new risks. An accessible primer, Cybersecurity: Public Sector Threats and Responses focuses on the convergence of globalization, connectivity, and the migration of public sector functions online. It identifies the challenges you need to be aware of and examines emerging trends and strategies from around

  11. Rethinking climate change as a security threat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoch, Corinne

    2011-10-15

    Once upon a time climate change was a strictly environment and development issue. Today it has become a matter of national and international security. Efforts to link climate change with violent conflict may not be based on solid evidence, but they have certainly captured the attention of governments. They have played a vital role in raising the much-needed awareness of climate change as an issue that deserves global action. But at what cost? Focusing on climate change as a security threat alone risks devolving humanitarian responsibilities to the military, ignoring key challenges and losing sight of those climate-vulnerable communities that stand most in need of protection.

  12. A model-based evaluation system of enterprise

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yan Junwei; Ye Yang; Wang Jian

    2005-01-01

    This paper analyses the architecture of enterprise modeling, proposesindicator selection principles and indicator decomposition methods, examines the approaches to the evaluation of enterprise modeling and designs an evaluation model of AHP. Then a model-based evaluation system of enterprise is presented toeffectively evaluate the business model in the framework of enterprise modeling.

  13. The spatial distribution of threats to plant species with extremely small populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chunjing; Zhang, Jing; Wan, Jizhong; Qu, Hong; Mu, Xianyun; Zhang, Zhixiang

    2017-03-01

    Many biological conservationists take actions to conserve plant species with extremely small populations (PSESP) in China; however, there have been few studies on the spatial distribution of threats to PSESP. Hence, we selected distribution data of PSESP and made a map of the spatial distribution of threats to PSESP in China. First, we used the weight assignment method to evaluate the threat risk to PSESP at both country and county scales. Second, we used a geographic information system to map the spatial distribution of threats to PSESP, and explored the threat factors based on linear regression analysis. Finally, we suggested some effective conservation options. We found that the PSESP with high values of protection, such as the plants with high scientific research values and ornamental plants, were threatened by over-exploitation and utilization, habitat fragmentation, and a small sized wild population in broad-leaved forests and bush fallows. We also identified some risk hotspots for PSESP in China. Regions with low elevation should be given priority for ex- and in-situ conservation. Moreover, climate change should be considered for conservation of PSESP. To avoid intensive over-exploitation or utilization and habitat fragmentation, in-situ conservation should be practiced in regions with high temperatures and low temperature seasonality, particularly in the high risk hotspots for PSESP that we proposed. Ex-situ conservation should be applied in these same regions, and over-exploitation and utilization of natural resources should be prevented. It is our goal to apply the concept of PSESP to the global scale in the future.

  14. The spatial distribution of threats to plant species with extremely small populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chunjing; Zhang, Jing; Wan, Jizhong; Qu, Hong; Mu, Xianyun; Zhang, Zhixiang

    2016-04-01

    Many biological conservationists take actions to conserve plant species with extremely small populations (PSESP) in China; however, there have been few studies on the spatial distribution of threats to PSESP. Hence, we selected distribution data of PSESP and made a map of the spatial distribution of threats to PSESP in China. First, we used the weight assignment method to evaluate the threat risk to PSESP at both country and county scales. Second, we used a geographic information system to map the spatial distribution of threats to PSESP, and explored the threat factors based on linear regression analysis. Finally, we suggested some effective conservation options. We found that the PSESP with high values of protection, such as the plants with high scientific research values and ornamental plants, were threatened by over-exploitation and utilization, habitat fragmentation, and a small sized wild population in broad-leaved forests and bush fallows. We also identified some risk hotspots for PSESP in China. Regions with low elevation should be given priority for ex- and in-situ conservation. Moreover, climate change should be considered for conservation of PSESP. To avoid intensive over-exploitation or utilization and habitat fragmentation, in-situ conservation should be practiced in regions with high temperatures and low temperature seasonality, particularly in the high risk hotspots for PSESP that we proposed. Ex-situ conservation should be applied in these same regions, and over-exploitation and utilization of natural resources should be prevented. It is our goal to apply the concept of PSESP to the global scale in the future.

  15. Competency Based Evaluation Guide for Teachers. Revised.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norfolk State Coll., VA.

    This teacher evaluation instrument is designed to test the competencies of inservice and preservice teachers. Four categories of skills are evaluated: (1) instructional programs and processes; (2) classroom management and logistics; (3) professional development and interactions with others; and (4) exceptional students. Within each category,…

  16. Is China Threat a Hoax?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Niu Weigan; Ma Zongshi

    2008-01-01

    The Beijing Olympics has focused unprecedented world attention on China this year. Many people hail the Games as an occasion that showcases China's growing contribution to world development and harmony. But intent on politicizing this global event, a few modern Cassandras still cling to the flawed China Threat theory. In this paper, the author traces the origins of this fallacious theory. He sees it as a product of Western empiricism viewed through an historical and philosophical prism. He argues that the assertion of threat arises from a generalization of historical facts. The assertion links China's growing clout with declining Western dominance in international affairs. Starting with the myth that peace is possible only among democracies, the theory predicts the inevitability of conflict between the West and China, a country with an alleged expansionist tradition and under an authoritarian system.

  17. Evaluation methodology for seismic base isolation of nuclear equipments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ebisawa, K. (Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan)); Uga, T. (Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan))

    1993-08-01

    An evaluation methodology for seismic base isolated nuclear equipments is proposed. The evaluation can be classified into two steps. In the first step, the seismic functional failure probability during the lifetime of equipment without base isolation devices is quantified in order to decide the applicability of the base isolated structure. The second step is comparative and calculates the ratio of the seismic failure frequency of the equipment without base isolation devices to that with them in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the base isolated structure. The sample evaluation considers the case of high voltage type emergency transformer with ceramic tubes. (orig.)

  18. Zika Still a Threat During Winter Months

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_162518.html Zika Still a Threat During Winter Months Public health ... doesn't necessarily mean the end of the Zika threat in the United States, a public health ...

  19. Filling in biodiversity threat gaps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joppa, L. N.; O'Connor, Brian; Visconti, Piero

    2016-01-01

    increase to 10,000 times the background rate should species threatened with extinction succumb to pressures they face (4). Reversing these trends is a focus of the Convention on Biological Diversity's 2020 Strategic Plan for Biodiversity and its 20 Aichi Targets and is explicitly incorporated...... into the United Nations' 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We identify major gaps in data available for assessing global biodiversity threats and suggest mechanisms for closing them....

  20. Subordinates as Threats to Leaders

    OpenAIRE

    Glazer, Amihai; Segendorff, Björn

    2001-01-01

    A leader of an organization may view a subordinate as threatening or weakening the leader's position. The threat may increase with the subordinate's ability and reduce the rents the leader wins. In particular, a leader who trains his subordinate reduces the cost to the owner of a firm in replacing the leader, and so reduces the leader's bargaining power. The leader therefore provides inefficiently low training for the subordinate.

  1. Cyber Terrorism– Global Security Threat

    OpenAIRE

    Bogdanoski, Mitko; Petreski, Drage

    2013-01-01

    It is more than obvious that the way of conducting terrorism with the time is becoming more sophisticated. The cyber terrorism is real threat to fast technology development. Potential targets are systems which control the nation’s defenses and critical infrastructure. The terrorist of the future will win the wars without firing a shot - just by destroying infrastructure that significantly relies on information technology. The fast growth of the Internet users and Internet dependence dramat...

  2. Protection without detection: a threat mitigation technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Joshua; McCoy, Joseph R.; Ratazzi, Paul

    2012-05-01

    Networking systems and individual applications have traditionally been defended using signature-based tools that protect the perimeter, many times to the detriment of service, performance, and information flow. These tools require knowledge of both the system on which they run and the attack they are preventing. As such, by their very definition, they only account for what is known to be malicious and ignore the unknown. The unknown, or zero day threat, can occur when defenses have yet to be immunized via a signature or other identifier of the threat. In environments where execution of the mission is paramount, the networks and applications must perform their function of information delivery without endangering the enterprise or losing the salient information, even when facing zero day threats. In this paper we, describe a new defensive strategy that provides a means to more deliberately balance the oft mutually exclusive aspects of protection and availability. We call this new strategy Protection without Detection, since it focuses on network protection without sacrificing information availability. The current instantiation analyzes the data stream in real time as it passes through an in-line device. Critical files are recognized, and mission-specific trusted templates are applied as they are forwarded to their destination. The end result is a system which eliminates the opportunity for propagation of malicious or unnecessary payloads via the various containers that are inherent in the definition of standard file types. In some cases, this method sacrifices features or functionality that is typically inherent in these files. However, with the flexibility of the template approach, inclusion or exclusion of these features becomes a deliberate choice of the mission owners, based on their needs and amount of acceptable risk. The paper concludes with a discussion of future extensions and applications.

  3. Agent Based Processing of Global Evaluation Function

    CERN Document Server

    Hossain, M Shahriar; Joarder, Md Mahbubul Alam

    2011-01-01

    Load balancing across a networked environment is a monotonous job. Moreover, if the job to be distributed is a constraint satisfying one, the distribution of load demands core intelligence. This paper proposes parallel processing through Global Evaluation Function by means of randomly initialized agents for solving Constraint Satisfaction Problems. A potential issue about the number of agents in a machine under the invocation of distribution is discussed here for securing the maximum benefit from Global Evaluation and parallel processing. The proposed system is compared with typical solution that shows an exclusive outcome supporting the nobility of parallel implementation of Global Evaluation Function with certain number of agents in each invoked machine.

  4. GIS-Based Evaluation of Danger in Karst Collapse

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, feasibility and advantage of GIS technology are discussed to make a quantitative evaluation of karst collapses, a fast and precise evaluation method for developing interface between the karst collapse and GIS-based evaluation model is used to predict major natural geological disasters. A complete procedure of fuzzy-hierarchical GIS-based evaluation of karst collapses is illustrated with the karst collapses in western urban area of Guilin, China.

  5. How to Reach Evidence-Based Usability Evaluation Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcilly, Romaric; Peute, Linda

    2017-01-01

    This paper discusses how and why to build evidence-based knowledge on usability evaluation methods. At each step of building evidence, requisites and difficulties to achieve it are highlighted. Specifically, the paper presents how usability evaluation studies should be designed to allow capitalizing evidence. Reciprocally, it presents how evidence-based usability knowledge will help improve usability practice. Finally, it underlines that evaluation and evidence participate in a virtuous circle that will help improve scientific knowledge and evaluation practice.

  6. Research of Air Route Planning Optimization Method without Threat Based on Improved Ant Colony Algorithm%利用改进蚁群算法的可规避威胁源最优航线规划

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    柴毅哲; 杨任农; 马明杰; 刘孟强

    2015-01-01

    Aimed at air route planning problems in complex environment,a route planning optimization method without threat based on the fundamental ant colony algorithm is proposed.The use of this method enhances the descriptive ability of the real flight circumstance to improve the effectiveness of route plan-ning by reconstructing the route planning target function and comprehensively analyzing the information of terrain and threat in aircraft flight environment,including the factors such as route distance,time,fuel, cost and threat evasion ,etc.Still,the use of this method can save algorithm time and enhance efficiency of optimization by improving distance heuristic factor to introduce heuristic direction.The simulation results show that the use of this improved ant colony algorithm can save 10% of the optimization time and reduce 10��odd iterative times compared with that of the fundamental ant colony algorithm.%针对复杂环境中飞行器航线规划问题,在基本蚁群算法的基础上,提出一种可规避威胁源的航线规划方法。通过综合分析飞行器飞行环境中的地形信息和威胁信息,考虑航线距离、时耗、能耗、全程费用和威胁规避等因素,重构航线规划目标函数,加强了对飞行器实际飞行环境的描述,从而提高了航线规划的有效性;通过增加目标节点对下一节点的影响来改进状态转移概率,促使蚂蚁向目标方向前进,以节省计算时间,提高优化效率。仿真结果显示,与基本蚁群算法相比,改进算法可以节省10%的优化时间且缩短10多次迭代次数。

  7. Stereotype Threat, Test Anxiety, and Mathematics Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tempel, Tobias; Neumann, Roland

    2014-01-01

    We investigated the combined effects of stereotype threat and trait test anxiety on mathematics test performance. Stereotype threat and test anxiety interacted with each other in affecting performance. Trait test anxiety predicted performance only in a diagnostic condition that prevented stereotype threat by stereotype denial. A state measure of…

  8. A methodology for capability-based technology evaluation for systems-of-systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biltgen, Patrick Thomas

    2007-12-01

    Post-Cold War military conflicts have highlighted the need for a flexible, agile joint force responsive to emerging crises around the globe. The 2005 Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System (JCIDS) acquisition policy document mandates a shift away from stove-piped threat-based acquisition to a capability-based model focused on the multiple ways and means of achieving an effect. This shift requires a greater emphasis on scenarios, tactics, and operational concepts during the conceptual phase of design and structured processes for technology evaluation to support this transition are lacking. In this work, a methodology for quantitative technology evaluation for systems-of-systems is defined. Physics-based models of an aircraft system are exercised within a hierarchical, object-oriented constructive simulation to quantify technology potential in the context of a relevant scenario. A major technical challenge to this approach is the lack of resources to support real-time human-in-the-loop tactical decision making and technology analysis. An approach that uses intelligent agents to create a "Meta-General" capable of forecasting strategic and tactical decisions based on technology inputs is used. To demonstrate the synergy between new technologies and tactics, surrogate models are utilized to provide intelligence to individual agents within the framework and develop a set of tactics that appropriately exploit new technologies. To address the long run-times associated with constructive military simulations, neural network surrogate models are implemented around the forecasting environment to enable rapid trade studies. Probabilistic techniques are used to quantify uncertainty and richly populate the design space with technology-infused alternatives. Since a large amount of data is produced in the analysis of systems-of-systems, dynamic, interactive visualization techniques are used to enable "what-if" games on assumptions, systems, technologies, tactics, and

  9. Analysis and Evaluating Security of Component-Based Software Development: A Security Metrics Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irshad Ahmad Mir

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating the security of software systems is a complex problem for the research communities due to the multifaceted and complex operational environment of the system involved. Many efforts towards the secure system development methodologies like secSDLC by Microsoft have been made but the measurement scale on which the security can be measured got least success. As with a shift in the nature of software development from standalone applications to distributed environment where there are a number of potential adversaries and threats present, security has been outlined and incorporated at the architectural level of the system and so is the need to evaluate and measure the level of security achieved . In this paper we present a framework for security evaluation at the design and architectural phase of the system development. We have outlined the security objectives based on the security requirements of the system and analyzed the behavior of various software architectures styles. As the component-based development (CBD is an important and widely used model to develop new large scale software due to various benefits like increased reuse, reduce time to market and cost. Our emphasis is on CBD and we have proposed a framework for the security evaluation of Component based software design and derived the security metrics for the main three pillars of security, confidentiality, integrity and availability based on the component composition, dependency and inter component data/information flow. The proposed framework and derived metrics are flexible enough, in way that the system developer can modify the metrics according to the situation and are applicable both at the development phases and as well as after development.

  10. Art-Based Evaluation in Research Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julliard, Kell N.; Gujral, Jeetinder Kaur; Hamil, Sarah W.; Oswald, Elaine; Smyk, Amy; Testa, Nicole

    2000-01-01

    Study uses art to evaluate an all day seminar for graduate students on research methods, to explore students' feelings about research concepts, and to foster understanding of these concepts. Results suggest that the seminar was able to reduce most participants' anxiety about research without a loss of creativity and energy. (Author/GCP)

  11. Frequently updated noise threat maps created with use of supercomputing grid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szczodrak Maciej

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available An innovative supercomputing grid services devoted to noise threat evaluation were presented. The services described in this paper concern two issues, first is related to the noise mapping, while the second one focuses on assessment of the noise dose and its influence on the human hearing system. The discussed serviceswere developed within the PL-Grid Plus Infrastructure which accumulates Polish academic supercomputer centers. Selected experimental results achieved by the usage of the services proposed were presented. The assessment of the environmental noise threats includes creation of the noise maps using either ofline or online data, acquired through a grid of the monitoring stations. A concept of estimation of the source model parameters based on the measured sound level for the purpose of creating frequently updated noise maps was presented. Connecting the noise mapping grid service with a distributed sensor network enables to automatically update noise maps for a specified time period. Moreover, a unique attribute of the developed software is the estimation of the auditory effects evoked by the exposure to noise. The estimation method uses a modified psychoacoustic model of hearing and is based on the calculated noise level values and on the given exposure period. Potential use scenarios of the grid services for research or educational purpose were introduced. Presentation of the results of predicted hearing threshold shift caused by exposure to excessive noise can raise the public awareness of the noise threats.

  12. Wireless LAN Security Threats & Vulnerabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Waliullah

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Wireless LANs are everywhere these days from home to large enterprise corporate networks due to the ease of installation, employee convenience, avoiding wiring cost and constant mobility support. However, the greater availability of wireless LANs means increased danger from attacks and increased challenges to an organisation, IT staff and IT security professionals. This paper discusses the various security issues and vulnerabilities related to the IEEE 802.11 Wireless LAN encryption standard and common threats/attacks pertaining to the home and enterprise Wireless LAN system and provide overall guidelines and recommendation to the home users and organizations.

  13. Symbian `vulnerability' and Mobile Threats

    CERN Document Server

    Gharibi, Wajeb

    2012-01-01

    Modern technologies are becoming ever more integrated with each other. Mobile phones are becoming increasing intelligent, and handsets are growing ever more like computers in functionality. We are entering a new era - the age of smart houses, global advanced networks which encompass a wide range of devices, all of them exchanging data with each other. Such trends clearly open new horizons to malicious users, and the potential threats are self evident. In this paper, we study and discuss one of the most famous mobile operating systems 'Symbian'; its vulnerabilities and recommended protection technologies.

  14. New Threat to World Economy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The aggregate amount of money and credit in the global economy has risen sharply over the past 30 years,with its growth rate and stock far exceeding that of the real economy or real assets of the world.This is the view of Xiang Songzuo,professor at the Huazhong University of Science and Technology,whose opinion was first published in a recent article in China Business News.Xiang said this situation is a real threat to the world economy.Excerpts of his article are reprinted below:

  15. Usability Evaluation of a Web-Based Learning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Thao

    2012-01-01

    The paper proposes a contingent, learner-centred usability evaluation method and a prototype tool of such systems. This is a new usability evaluation method for web-based learning systems using a set of empirically-supported usability factors and can be done effectively with limited resources. During the evaluation process, the method allows for…

  16. Usage-Based Collection Evaluation with a Curricular Focus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohn, Karen C.

    2013-01-01

    Systematic evaluation of a library's collection can be a useful tool for collection development. After reviewing three evaluation methods and their usefulness for our small academic library, I undertook a usage-based evaluation, focusing on narrow segments of our collection that served specific undergraduate courses. For each section, I collected…

  17. If it bleeds, it leads: separating threat from mere negativity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kveraga, Kestutis; Boshyan, Jasmine; Adams, Reginald B; Mote, Jasmine; Betz, Nicole; Ward, Noreen; Hadjikhani, Nouchine; Bar, Moshe; Barrett, Lisa F

    2015-01-01

    Most theories of emotion hold that negative stimuli are threatening and aversive. Yet in everyday experiences some negative sights (e.g. car wrecks) attract curiosity, whereas others repel (e.g. a weapon pointed in our face). To examine the diversity in negative stimuli, we employed four classes of visual images (Direct Threat, Indirect Threat, Merely Negative and Neutral) in a set of behavioral and functional magnetic resonance imaging studies. Participants reliably discriminated between the images, evaluating Direct Threat stimuli most quickly, and Merely Negative images most slowly. Threat images evoked greater and earlier blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) activations in the amygdala and periaqueductal gray, structures implicated in representing and responding to the motivational salience of stimuli. Conversely, the Merely Negative images evoked larger BOLD signal in the parahippocampal, retrosplenial, and medial prefrontal cortices, regions which have been implicated in contextual association processing. Ventrolateral as well as medial and lateral orbitofrontal cortices were activated by both threatening and Merely Negative images. In conclusion, negative visual stimuli can repel or attract scrutiny depending on their current threat potential, which is assessed by dynamic shifts in large-scale brain network activity.

  18. Brain Mechanisms of Social Threat Effects on Working Memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ast, V A; Spicer, J; Smith, E E; Schmer-Galunder, S; Liberzon, I; Abelson, J L; Wager, T D

    2016-02-01

    Social threat can have adverse effects on cognitive performance, but the brain mechanisms underlying its effects are poorly understood. We investigated the effects of social evaluative threat on working memory (WM), a core component of many important cognitive capabilities. Social threat impaired WM performance during an N-back task and produced widespread reductions in activation in lateral prefrontal cortex and intraparietal sulcus (IPS), among other regions. In addition, activity in frontal and parietal regions predicted WM performance, and mediation analyses identified regions in the bilateral IPS that mediated the performance-impairing effects of social threat. Social threat also decreased connectivity between the IPS and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, while increasing connectivity between the IPS and the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, a region strongly implicated in the generation of autonomic and emotional responses. Finally, cortisol response to the stressor did not mediate WM impairment but was rather associated with protective effects. These results provide a basis for understanding interactions between social and cognitive processes at a neural systems level.

  19. Credibility of Deterrence Threats- A Social Psychological Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Sheikh

    1972-01-01

    Full Text Available In view of the prevailing ambiguities, impressionistic beliefs and perhaps distortions that shroud the contemporary deterrence theory and the various strategies of deterrence associated with it, this paper attempts to break fresh grounds, particularly in the area of threat credibility. By focusing the level of analysis somewhere between the individual personality and social structures and thus using a social psychological approach, it attempts to explain the behaviour (as related to the credibility of deterrence threats of national decision-makers, during acute international crises. After analyzing and re-evaluating the relevant literature in the field, the paper presents a functional model of threat perception involving two opponents. The model takes into account such variables as: (1 basic human needs; (2 role of reference groups; (3credibility and specificity of international threats; (4 leaders intentions and predispositions; and (5 self-perception of threats. The major conclusions of the paper are: (1 no communicative means for influencing human behaviour are uniformally effective because of the problem of distortion of perception; evidence suggests in most cases rationality under high fear is impaired because fear tends to reduce the range of clues which are available for the consideration of the threatened party.

  20. Teacher Perceptions Regarding Portfolio-Based Components of Teacher Evaluations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagel, Charles I.

    2012-01-01

    This study reports the results of teachers' and principals' perceptions of the package evaluation process, a process that uses a combination of a traditional evaluation with a portfolio-based assessment tool. In addition, this study contributes to the educational knowledge base by exploring the participants' views on the impact of…

  1. Is energy cropping in Europe compatible with biodiversity? – Opportunities and threats to biodiversity from land-based production of biomass for bioenergy purposes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pedroli, G.B.M.; Elbersen, B.S.; Frederiksen, P.; Grandin, U.; Heikkilä, R.; Krogh, P.H.; Izakovicová, Z.; Johansen, A.; Meiresonne, L.; Spijker, J.H.

    2013-01-01

    Based on literature and six country studies (Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, Sweden, Slovakia) this paper discusses the compatibility of the EU 2020 targets for renewable energy with conservation of biodiversity. We conclude that increased demand for biomass for bioenergy purposes may lead t

  2. Unattended sensors for nuclear threat detection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Runkle, Robert C.; Myjak, Mitchell J.; Batdorf, Michael T.; Bowler, Ryan S.; Kiff, Scott D.; Morris, Scott J.; Mullen, Crystal A.; Rohrer, John S.; Todd, Lindsay C.

    2008-06-30

    This paper discusses the ongoing development of a compact, unattended, and low-power radiation detection system designed for deployment to the front lines of nuclear proliferation. Current countermeasure deployments aim to detect nuclear threats by screening cargo containers abroad or at ports of entry, but the defensive nature of these systems means that they face the immense challenge of detecting intentionally-concealed materials. A complementary strategy places countermeasures closer to the source of nuclear proliferation, but deployments to these regions often must operate autonomously and in the absence of infrastructure. This application motivates our development of a low-power system capable of detecting gamma-ray and neutron emissions while operating autonomously for extended periods of time. Many challenges are present when developing radiation-detection systems for this application, and this paper describes work focused on two of them: the development of compact, low-power electronics for gamma-ray-spectrometer and 3He- tube signal processing, and analysis algorithms capable of distinguishing threats from benign sources in mid-resolution gamma-ray spectrometers. We discuss our development efforts on these fronts and present results based on implementation in a proof-of-principle system comprised of two 5 cm x 10 cm x 41 cm NaI(Tl) crystals and eight 40-cm 3He tubes.

  3. Constraint-Based Partial Evaluation for Imperative Languages

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIN Ying(金英); JIN Chengzhi(金成植)

    2002-01-01

    Constraint-based partial evaluation (CBPE) is a program optimization technique based on partial evaluation (PE) and constraint solving. Conventional PE only utilizes given parameter values to specialize programs. However, CBPE makes use of not only given values but also the following information: (a) the relationship between input parameters and program variables; (b) logical structure of a program to be evaluated. In this paper, a formal description of CBPE method for imperative languages is presented, and some related problems are discussed.

  4. Avoidance Denial versus Optimistic Denial in Reaction to the Threat of Future Cardiovascular Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Suzanne C.; Ting, Sarah A.

    2012-01-01

    Two distinctly different denial-based threat orientations (avoidance denial and optimistic denial) were examined using a message about the future risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) for young adults. Participants (N = 101) completed measures of denial-based dispositional threat orientations, current eating, comparative risk, and objective risk…

  5. Effects of threat management interactions on conservation priorities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auerbach, Nancy A; Wilson, Kerrie A; Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Rhodes, Jonathan R; Hanson, Jeffrey O; Possingham, Hugh P

    2015-12-01

    Decisions need to be made about which biodiversity management actions are undertaken to mitigate threats and about where these actions are implemented. However, management actions can interact; that is, the cost, benefit, and feasibility of one action can change when another action is undertaken. There is little guidance on how to explicitly and efficiently prioritize management for multiple threats, including deciding where to act. Integrated management could focus on one management action to abate a dominant threat or on a strategy comprising multiple actions to abate multiple threats. Furthermore management could be undertaken at sites that are in close proximity to reduce costs. We used cost-effectiveness analysis to prioritize investments in fire management, controlling invasive predators, and reducing grazing pressure in a bio-diverse region of southeastern Queensland, Australia. We compared outcomes of 5 management approaches based on different assumptions about interactions and quantified how investment needed, benefits expected, and the locations prioritized for implementation differed when interactions were taken into account. Managing for interactions altered decisions about where to invest and in which actions to invest and had the potential to deliver increased investment efficiency. Differences in high priority locations and actions were greatest between the approaches when we made different assumptions about how management actions deliver benefits through threat abatement: either all threats must be managed to conserve species or only one management action may be required. Threatened species management that does not consider interactions between actions may result in misplaced investments or misguided expectations of the effort required to mitigate threats to species.

  6. Transducer-based evaluation of tremor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haubenberger, Dietrich; Abbruzzese, Giovanni; Bain, Peter G; Bajaj, Nin; Benito-León, Julián; Bhatia, Kailash P; Deuschl, Günther; Forjaz, Maria João; Hallett, Mark; Louis, Elan D; Lyons, Kelly E; Mestre, Tiago A; Raethjen, Jan; Stamelou, Maria; Tan, Eng-King; Testa, Claudia M; Elble, Rodger J

    2016-09-01

    The International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society established a task force on tremor that reviewed the use of transducer-based measures in the quantification and characterization of tremor. Studies of accelerometry, electromyography, activity monitoring, gyroscopy, digitizing tablet-based measures, vocal acoustic analysis, and several other transducer-based methods were identified by searching PubMed.gov. The availability, use, acceptability, reliability, validity, and responsiveness were reviewed for each measure using the following criteria: (1) used in the assessment of tremor; (2) used in published studies by people other than the developers; and (3) adequate clinimetric testing. Accelerometry, gyroscopy, electromyography, and digitizing tablet-based measures fulfilled all three criteria. Compared to rating scales, transducers are far more sensitive to changes in tremor amplitude and frequency, but they do not appear to be more capable of detecting a change that exceeds random variability in tremor amplitude (minimum detectable change). The use of transducer-based measures requires careful attention to their limitations and validity in a particular clinical or research setting. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

  7. Evaluating Computer-Based Assessment in a Risk-Based Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakrzewski, Stan; Steven, Christine; Ricketts, Chris

    2009-01-01

    There are three purposes for evaluation: evaluation for action to aid the decision making process, evaluation for understanding to further enhance enlightenment and evaluation for control to ensure compliance to standards. This article argues that the primary function of evaluation in the "Catherine Wheel" computer-based assessment (CBA) cyclic…

  8. Model-based Type B uncertainty evaluations of measurement towards more objective evaluation strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Boumans

    2013-01-01

    This article proposes a more objective Type B evaluation. This can be achieved when Type B uncertainty evaluations are model-based. This implies, however, grey-box modelling and validation instead of white-box modelling and validation which are appropriate for Type A evaluation.

  9. Performance Evaluation of Triangulation Based Range Sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica Bordegoni

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The performance of 2D digital imaging systems depends on several factors related with both optical and electronic processing. These concepts have originated standards, which have been conceived for photographic equipment and bi-dimensional scanning systems, and which have been aimed at estimating different parameters such as resolution, noise or dynamic range. Conversely, no standard test protocols currently exist for evaluating the corresponding performances of 3D imaging systems such as laser scanners or pattern projection range cameras. This paper is focused on investigating experimental processes for evaluating some critical parameters of 3D equipment, by extending the concepts defined by the ISO standards to the 3D domain. The experimental part of this work concerns the characterization of different range sensors through the extraction of their resolution, accuracy and uncertainty from sets of 3D data acquisitions of specifically designed test objects whose geometrical characteristics are known in advance. The major objective of this contribution is to suggest an easy characterization process for generating a reliable comparison between the performances of different range sensors and to check if a specific piece of equipment is compliant with the expected characteristics.

  10. The evidenced-based shoulder evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Kane, John W; Toresdahl, Brett G

    2014-01-01

    The physical examination of the shoulder has been studied extensively, but the quality and statistical power of the published research often is lacking. The initial reports of new shoulder examination techniques commonly describe impressive performance. However recent meta-analyses have found that when the majority of these tests are used in isolation, they lack the ability to rule in or rule out the pathology in question, with few exceptions. The diagnostic accuracy of the physical examination improves when the shoulder tests are evaluated in combination, such as positive passive distraction and active compression identifying a superior labral anterior to posterior (SLAP) lesion. The accuracy also can be improved when the shoulder tests are evaluated in conjunction with specific historical findings, such as age greater than 39 years, history of popping or clicking, and a positive painful arc (pain experienced between 60° and 120° of abduction) identifying rotator cuff tendinopathy. The literature on shoulder imaging demonstrates that rotator cuff tears can be ruled in or ruled out by both ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging. For SLAP lesions, magnetic resonance arthrography can be used to rule out a tear but may not be as accurate as combined physical examinations to rule in a tear.

  11. A Framework For Performance Evaluation Of ASIPs in Network-Based IDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Majid Nezakatolhoseini

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays efficient usage of high-tech security tools and appliances is considered as an importantcriterion for security improvement of computer networks. Based on this assumption, Intrusion Detectionand Prevention Systems (IDPS have key role for applying the defense in depth strategy. In this situation,by increasing network bandwidth in addition to increasing number of threats, Network-based IDPSeshave been faced with performance challenge for processing of huge traffic in the networks. A generalsolution for this bottleneck is exploitation of efficient hardware architectures for performanceimprovement of IDPS. In this paper a framework for analysis and performance evaluation of applicationspecific instruction set processors is presented for usage in application of attack detection in NetworkbasedIntrusion Detection Systems(NIDS. By running this framework as a security application on V850,OR1K, MIPS32, ARM7TDMI and PowerPC32 microprocessors, their performance has been evaluatedand analyzed. For performance improvement, the compiler optimization levels are employed and at theend; base on O2 optimization level a new combination of optimization flags is presented. The experimentsshow that the framework results 18.10% performance improvements for pattern matching on ARM7TDMImicroprocessors.

  12. A Regulation-Based Security Evaluation Method for Data Link in Wireless Sensor Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio S. Malavenda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a novel approach to the analysis of wireless sensor networks (WSN security, based on the regulations intended for wireless communication devices. Starting from the analysis and classification of attacks, countermeasures, and available protocols, we present the current state on secure communication stacks for embedded systems. The regulation analysis is based on civil EN 50150 and MIL STD-188-220, both applicable to WSN communications. Afterwards, starting from a list of known WSN attacks, we use a correspondence table to match WSN attacks with countermeasures required by regulations. This approach allows us to produce a precise security evaluation and classification methodology for WSN protocols. The results show that current protocols do not present a complete coverage of security issues. While this conclusion is already known for many WSN protocols, to the best of our knowledge this is the first time a complete methodology is proposed to base this assertion. Moreover, by using the proposed methodology, we are able to precisely identify the exposed threats for each WSN protocol under analysis.

  13. Evaluating Web-Based Learning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pergola, Teresa M.; Walters, L. Melissa

    2011-01-01

    Accounting educators continuously seek ways to effectively integrate instructional technology into accounting coursework as a means to facilitate active learning environments and address the technology-driven learning preferences of the current generation of students. Most accounting textbook publishers now provide interactive, web-based learning…

  14. Does by-catch pose a threat for the conservation of seabird populations in the southern Ionian Sea (eastern Mediterranean? A questionnaire based survey of local fisheries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. KARRIS

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available A significant number of studies worldwide have shown that incidental catches (by-catch of seabirds in fishing gear might pose a considerable risk for the conservation of their populations. Nevertheless reliable data on by-catch rates of seabirds in European marine ecosystems are patchy and need to be improved. This study constitutes a first attempt at the evaluation of by-catch rates in the southern Ionian Sea. Data were obtained by distributing a specific questionnaire to the fishers of Zakynthos Island. 150 professional fishers (representing 90% of the local fishing fleet participated in the research, and were interviewed during July-December 2010. The information collected showed that commercial longline and (to a lesser extent gillnet fishery gears caused incidental catches mostly of Scopoli’s Shearwater and Mediterranean Shag. The temporal analysis of the incidental bird mortality showed that seabirds were more susceptible to be trapped in fishery gears set around sunrise during spring and summer whereas spatial analysis of by-catch data indicated variations in the number of seabirds caught in different fishery areas.

  15. Enhanced Memory for both Threat and Neutral Information Under Conditions of Intergroup Threat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong eZhu

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Few studies have examined the effect of intergroup threat on cognitive outcomes such as memory. Different theoretical perspectives can inform how intergroup threat should affect memory for threat-relevant and neutral information, such as the mood-congruency approach, Yerkes-Dodson law, Easterbrook’s theory, and also evolutionary perspectives. To test among these, we conducted two experiments to examine how exposure to intergroup threats affected memory compared to control conditions. In study 1, we manipulated symbolic threat and examined participants’ memory for threat and neutral words. In study 2, memory performance was assessed following the induction of realistic threat. Across the studies, in the control condition participants showed better memory for threat-related than neutral information. However, participants under threat remembered neutral information as well as threat-related information. In addition, participants in the threat condition remembered threat-related information as well as participants in the control condition. The findings are discussed in terms of automatic vigilance processes but also the effects of threat on arousal and its effect on information processing. This latter perspective, suggests paradoxically, that under some circumstances involving an outgroup threat, non-threatening information about outgroups can be extensively processed.

  16. Complementary methods to plan pedestrian evacuation of the French Riviera's beaches in case of tsunami threat: graph- and multi-agent-based modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sahal

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Small amplitude tsunamis have impacted the French Mediterranean shore (French Riviera in the past centuries. Some caused casualties; others only generated economic losses. While the North Atlantic and Mediterranean tsunami warning system is being tested and is almost operational, no awareness and preparedness measure is being implemented at a local scale. Evacuation is to be considered along the French Riviera, but no plan exists within communities. We show that various approaches can provide local stakeholders with evacuation capacities assessments to develop adapted evacuation plans through the case study of the Cannes–Antibes region. The complementarity between large- and small-scale approaches is demonstrated with the use of macro-simulators (graph-based and micro-simulators (multi-agent-based to select shelter points and choose evacuation routes for pedestrians located on the beach. The first one allows automatically selecting shelter points and measuring and mapping their accessibility. The second one shows potential congestion issues during pedestrian evacuations, and provides leads for the improvement of urban environment. Temporal accessibility to shelters is compared to potential local and distal tsunami travel times, showing a 40 min deficit for an adequate crisis management in the first scenario, and a 30 min surplus for the second one.

  17. Complementary methods to plan pedestrian evacuation of the French Riviera's beaches in case of tsunami threat: graph- and multi-agent-based modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahal, A.; Leone, F.; Péroche, M.

    2013-07-01

    Small amplitude tsunamis have impacted the French Mediterranean shore (French Riviera) in the past centuries. Some caused casualties; others only generated economic losses. While the North Atlantic and Mediterranean tsunami warning system is being tested and is almost operational, no awareness and preparedness measure is being implemented at a local scale. Evacuation is to be considered along the French Riviera, but no plan exists within communities. We show that various approaches can provide local stakeholders with evacuation capacities assessments to develop adapted evacuation plans through the case study of the Cannes-Antibes region. The complementarity between large- and small-scale approaches is demonstrated with the use of macro-simulators (graph-based) and micro-simulators (multi-agent-based) to select shelter points and choose evacuation routes for pedestrians located on the beach. The first one allows automatically selecting shelter points and measuring and mapping their accessibility. The second one shows potential congestion issues during pedestrian evacuations, and provides leads for the improvement of urban environment. Temporal accessibility to shelters is compared to potential local and distal tsunami travel times, showing a 40 min deficit for an adequate crisis management in the first scenario, and a 30 min surplus for the second one.

  18. Pattern Specialization Based on Partial Evaluation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Design pattern enables software architecture generality and reusability, but which depresses the high performance. The pattern specialization was built on partial evaluation technology to reduce the overheads of design pattern. The design patterns were classified to extract the common features, and the corresponding pattern specializations were constructed. In the pattern specialization, the optimization opportunities were identified, and the specialization methods and conditions were described. The syntax of binding time analysis was defined, and the semantic depicted the invariant of usage context. The virtual invocation and dispatch were eliminated, which enhances the running efficiency. This pattern specialization is a high-level specialization for improving the performance of software aimed at design level that is orthogonal with the low-level code optimization.

  19. On the experience of feeling powerful: perceived power moderates the effect of stereotype threat on women's math performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Loo, Katie J; Rydell, Robert J

    2013-03-01

    This research examined whether feeling powerful can eliminate the deleterious effect of stereotype threat (i.e., concerns about confirming a negative self-relevant stereotype) on women's math performance. In Experiments 1 and 2, priming women with high power buffered them from reduced math performance in response to stereotype threat instructions, whereas women in the low and control power conditions showed poorer math performance in response to threat. Experiment 3 found that working memory capacity is one mechanism through which power moderates the effect of threat on women's math performance. In the low and control power conditions, women showed reduced working memory capacity in response to stereotype threat, accounting for threat's effect on performance. In contrast, women in the high power condition did not show reductions in working memory capacity or math performance in response to threat. This work demonstrates that perceived power moderates stereotype threat-based performance effects and explains why this occurs.

  20. Extended Darknet: Multi-Dimensional Internet Threat Monitoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimoda, Akihiro; Mori, Tatsuya; Goto, Shigeki

    Internet threats caused by botnets/worms are one of the most important security issues to be addressed. Darknet, also called a dark IP address space, is one of the best solutions for monitoring anomalous packets sent by malicious software. However, since darknet is deployed only on an inactive IP address space, it is an inefficient way for monitoring a working network that has a considerable number of active IP addresses. The present paper addresses this problem. We propose a scalable, light-weight malicious packet monitoring system based on a multi-dimensional IP/port analysis. Our system significantly extends the monitoring scope of darknet. In order to extend the capacity of darknet, our approach leverages the active IP address space without affecting legitimate traffic. Multi-dimensional monitoring enables the monitoring of TCP ports with firewalls enabled on each of the IP addresses. We focus on delays of TCP syn/ack responses in the traffic. We locate syn/ack delayed packets and forward them to sensors or honeypots for further analysis. We also propose a policy-based flow classification and forwarding mechanism and develop a prototype of a monitoring system that implements our proposed architecture. We deploy our system on a campus network and perform several experiments for the evaluation of our system. We verify that our system can cover 89% of the IP addresses while darknet-based monitoring only covers 46%. On our campus network, our system monitors twice as many IP addresses as darknet.

  1. Energy Rebound as a Potential Threat to a Low-Carbon Future: Findings from a New Exergy-Based National-Level Rebound Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul E. Brockway

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available 150 years ago, Stanley Jevons introduced the concept of energy rebound: that anticipated energy efficiency savings may be “taken back” by behavioural responses. This is an important issue today because, if energy rebound is significant, this would hamper the effectiveness of energy efficiency policies aimed at reducing energy use and associated carbon emissions. However, empirical studies which estimate national energy rebound are rare and, perhaps as a result, rebound is largely ignored in energy-economy models and associated policy. A significant difficulty lies in the components of energy rebound assessed in empirical studies: most examine direct and indirect rebound in the static economy, excluding potentially significant rebound of the longer term structural response of the national economy. In response, we develop a novel exergy-based approach to estimate national energy rebound for the UK and US (1980–2010 and China (1981–2010. Exergy—as “available energy”—allows a consistent, thermodynamic-based metric for national-level energy efficiency. We find large energy rebound in China, suggesting that improvements in China’s energy efficiency may be associated with increased energy consumption (“backfire”. Conversely, we find much lower (partial energy rebound for the case of the UK and US. These findings support the hypothesis that producer-sided economies (such as China may exhibit large energy rebound, reducing the effectiveness of energy efficiency, unless other policy measures (e.g., carbon taxes are implemented. It also raises the prospect we need to deploy renewable energy sources faster than currently planned, if (due to rebound energy efficiency policies cannot deliver the scale of energy reduction envisaged to meet climate targets.

  2. Countering the Nuclear Terrorist Threat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vantine, H C

    2002-10-04

    The nuclear/radioactive threat to homeland security posed by terrorists can be broken into four categories. Of highest concern is the use of an improvised nuclear device (IND). An IND, as its name implies, is a nuclear explosive device. It produces nuclear yield, and this nuclear yield has catastrophic effects. An IND is the ultimate terrorist weapon, and terrorist groups are actively attempting to acquire nuclear weapons. Detonation of an IND could dwarf the devastation of the September 11 attack on the World Trade Center. Dealing with the aftermath of an IND would be horrific. Rescue efforts and cleanup would be hazardous and difficult. Workers would have to wear full protection suits and self-contained breathing apparatus. Because of the residual radioactivity, in certain locations they could only work short times before acquiring their ''lifetime'' dose. As with the Chernobyl event, some rescue workers might well expose themselves to lethal doses of radiation, adding to the casualty toll. Enormous volumes of contaminated debris would have to be removed and disposed. If a terrorist group decides not to pursue an actual nuclear device, it might well turn to Radiological Dispersal Devices (RDDs) or ''dirty bombs'' as they are often called. RDDs spread radioactivity but they do not generate nuclear yield. The fabrication of an RDD requires radioactive material and a dispersal mechanism. Radioactive materials are used all over the world for medical, industrial, and research applications. Standards for safe handling and accountability of radioactive material vary around the world. Stories in the press suggest inadequate controls on radiological materials in parts of the world. The effects of an RDD vary widely, and are measured in terms of contamination area, health effects to the exposed population, and economic consequences. Even a negligible, but measurable, exposure would exploit the general public's fear of things

  3. Benefits of integrating complementarity into priority threat management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadés, Iadine; Nicol, Sam; van Leeuwen, Stephen; Walters, Belinda; Firn, Jennifer; Reeson, Andrew; Martin, Tara G; Carwardine, Josie

    2015-04-01

    Conservation decision tools based on cost-effectiveness analysis are used to assess threat management strategies for improving species persistence. These approaches rank alternative strategies by their benefit to cost ratio but may fail to identify the optimal sets of strategies to implement under limited budgets because they do not account for redundancies. We devised a multiobjective optimization approach in which the complementarity principle is applied to identify the sets of threat management strategies that protect the most species for any budget. We used our approach to prioritize threat management strategies for 53 species of conservation concern in the Pilbara, Australia. We followed a structured elicitation approach to collect information on the benefits and costs of implementing 17 different conservation strategies during a 3-day workshop with 49 stakeholders and experts in the biodiversity, conservation, and management of the Pilbara. We compared the performance of our complementarity priority threat management approach with a current cost-effectiveness ranking approach. A complementary set of 3 strategies: domestic herbivore management, fire management and research, and sanctuaries provided all species with >50% chance of persistence for $4.7 million/year over 20 years. Achieving the same result cost almost twice as much ($9.71 million/year) when strategies were selected by their cost-effectiveness ranks alone. Our results show that complementarity of management benefits has the potential to double the impact of priority threat management approaches.

  4. Detector evaluation for improved situational awareness: Receiver operator characteristic curve based

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wuijckhuijse, A.L. van; Nieuwenhuizen, M.S.

    2016-01-01

    In military and civilian operations good situational awareness is a prerequisite to make proper decisions. The situational awareness is among others based upon intelligence, threat analysis and detection, altogether element of the so-called DIM (detection, identification, monitoring) system. In case

  5. Phishing - A Growing Threat to E-Commerce

    CERN Document Server

    Banday, M Tariq

    2011-01-01

    In today's business environment, it is difficult to imagine a workplace without access to the web, yet a variety of email born viruses, spyware, adware, Trojan horses, phishing attacks, directory harvest attacks, DoS attacks, and other threats combine to attack businesses and customers. This paper is an attempt to review phishing - a constantly growing and evolving threat to Internet based commercial transactions. Various phishing approaches that include vishing, spear phishng, pharming, keyloggers, malware, web Trojans, and others will be discussed. This paper also highlights the latest phishing analysis made by Anti-Phishing Working Group (APWG) and Korean Internet Security Center.

  6. Are needs to manage uncertainty and threat associated with political conservatism or ideological extremity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jost, John T; Napier, Jaime L; Thorisdottir, Hulda; Gosling, Samuel D; Palfai, Tibor P; Ostafin, Brian

    2007-07-01

    Three studies are conducted to assess the uncertainty- threat model of political conservatism, which posits that psychological needs to manage uncertainty and threat are associated with political orientation. Results from structural equation models provide consistent support for the hypothesis that uncertainty avoidance (e.g., need for order, intolerance of ambiguity, and lack of openness to experience) and threat management (e.g., death anxiety, system threat, and perceptions of a dangerous world) each contributes independently to conservatism (vs. liberalism). No support is obtained for alternative models, which predict that uncertainty and threat management are associated with ideological extremism or extreme forms of conservatism only. Study 3 also reveals that resistance to change fully mediates the association between uncertainty avoidance and conservatism, whereas opposition to equality partially mediates the association between threat and conservatism. Implications for understanding the epistemic and existential bases of political orientation are discussed.

  7. Evaluation of CT-based SUV normalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devriese, Joke; Beels, Laurence; Maes, Alex; Van de Wiele, Christophe; Pottel, Hans

    2016-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine patients’ lean body mass (LBM) and lean tissue (LT) mass using a computed tomography (CT)-based method, and to compare standardized uptake value (SUV) normalized by these parameters to conventionally normalized SUVs. Head-to-toe positron emission tomography (PET)/CT examinations were retrospectively retrieved and semi-automatically segmented into tissue types based on thresholding of CT Hounsfield units (HU). The following HU ranges were used for determination of CT-estimated LBM and LT (LBMCT and LTCT):  -180 to  -7 for adipose tissue (AT), -6 to 142 for LT, and 143 to 3010 for bone tissue (BT). Formula-estimated LBMs were calculated using formulas of James (1976 Research on Obesity: a Report of the DHSS/MRC Group (London: HMSO)) and Janmahasatian et al (2005 Clin. Pharmacokinet. 44 1051-65), and body surface area (BSA) was calculated using the DuBois formula (Dubois and Dubois 1989 Nutrition 5 303-11). The CT segmentation method was validated by comparing total patient body weight (BW) to CT-estimated BW (BWCT). LBMCT was compared to formula-based estimates (LBMJames and LBMJanma). SUVs in two healthy reference tissues, liver and mediastinum, were normalized for the aforementioned parameters and compared to each other in terms of variability and dependence on normalization factors and BW. Comparison of actual BW to BWCT shows a non-significant difference of 0.8 kg. LBMJames estimates are significantly higher than LBMJanma with differences of 4.7 kg for female and 1.0 kg for male patients. Formula-based LBM estimates do not significantly differ from LBMCT, neither for men nor for women. The coefficient of variation (CV) of SUV normalized for LBMJames (SUVLBM-James) (12.3%) was significantly reduced in liver compared to SUVBW (15.4%). All SUV variances in mediastinum were significantly reduced (CVs were 11.1-12.2%) compared to SUVBW (15.5%), except SUVBSA (15.2%). Only SUVBW and SUVLBM-James show

  8. Existential and psychological problems connected with Threat Predicting Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mamcarz Piotr

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to present a very important phenomenon affecting human integrity and homeostasis that is Threat Prediction Process. This process can be defined as “experiencing apprehension concerning results of potential/ actual dangers,” (Mamcarz, 2015 oscillating in terminological area of anxiety, fear, stress, restlessness. Moreover, it highlights a cognitive process distinctive for listed phenomenon’s. The process accompanied with technological and organization changes increases number of health problems affecting many populations. Hard work conditions; changing life style; or many social and political threats have influence on people’s quality of life that are even greater and more dangerous than physical and psychological factors, which, in turn, have much more consequences for human normal functioning. The present article is based on chosen case studies of a qualitative analysis of threat prediction process

  9. Countering 21st Century Threats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scharling Pedersen, Peter; Pillai, Chad M.; Hun, Lee Jae

    2015-01-01

    The United States and its Allies confront an increasingly volatile world where threats range from traditional state-on-state challenges to non-state transnational networks. To successfully combat these 21st Century problems, in an era of resource and geo-political power constraints, the U......), Counter-Terrorism (CT), and Security and Stability Operations (SSO). • Establishing a construct that allows a strategic Whole-of-Government capacity for operations coordinated by joint interagency task forces. • Continue to developing the Global SOF network. • Increased intelligence sharing in areas...... (UW). Other obstacles such as resolving tensions in U.S. statutory law between traditional military and intelligence activities, bridging the gap with non-security Departments and Agencies, and developing the necessary trust with bilateral and multilateral partners are components that need...

  10. Evaluation of computer-based ultrasonic inservice inspection systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, R.V. Jr.; Angel, L.J.; Doctor, S.R.; Park, W.R.; Schuster, G.J.; Taylor, T.T. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1994-03-01

    This report presents the principles, practices, terminology, and technology of computer-based ultrasonic testing for inservice inspection (UT/ISI) of nuclear power plants, with extensive use of drawings, diagrams, and LTT images. The presentation is technical but assumes limited specific knowledge of ultrasonics or computers. The report is divided into 9 sections covering conventional LTT, computer-based LTT, and evaluation methodology. Conventional LTT topics include coordinate axes, scanning, instrument operation, RF and video signals, and A-, B-, and C-scans. Computer-based topics include sampling, digitization, signal analysis, image presentation, SAFI, ultrasonic holography, transducer arrays, and data interpretation. An evaluation methodology for computer-based LTT/ISI systems is presented, including questions, detailed procedures, and test block designs. Brief evaluations of several computer-based LTT/ISI systems are given; supplementary volumes will provide detailed evaluations of selected systems.

  11. Insider Threat Mitigation Workshop Instructional Materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gibbs, Philip [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Larsen, Robert [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); O' Brien, Mike [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Rodriquez, Jose [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2008-01-01

    Insiders represent a formidable threat to nuclear facilities. This set of workshop materials covers methodologies to analyze and approaches to mitigate the threat of an insider attempting abrupt theft of nuclear materials. This report is a compilation of workshop materials consisting of lectures on technical and administrative measures used in Physical Protection (PP) and Material Control and Accounting (MC&A) and methods for analyzing their effectiveness against a postulated insider threat.

  12. Prevent, Counter, and Respond - A Strategic Plan to Reduce Global Nuclear Threats (FY 2016-FY2020)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2015-03-01

    NNSA’s second core mission is reducing global nuclear dangers by preventing the acquisition of nuclear weapons or weapons-usable materials, countering efforts to acquire such weapons or materials, and responding to nuclear or radiological incidents. In 2015, NNSA reorganized its nonproliferation activities based on core competencies and realigned its counterterrorism and counterproliferation functions to more efficiently address both current and emerging threats and challenges. The reorganization accompanied the March 2015 release of the first ever Prevent, Counter, and Respond – A Strategic Plan to Reduce Global Nuclear Threats. This report, which NNSA will update annually, highlights key nuclear threat trends and describes NNSA’s integrated threat reduction strategy.

  13. Tropical montane cloud forests: current threats and opportunities for their conservation and sustainable management in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toledo-Aceves, Tarin; Meave, Jorge A; González-Espinosa, Mario; Ramírez-Marcial, Neptalí

    2011-03-01

    Tropical montane cloud forests (TMCF) are among the most threatened ecosystems globally in spite of their high strategic value for sustainable development due to the key role played by these forests in hydrological cycle maintenance and as reservoirs of endemic biodiversity. Resources for effective conservation and management programs are rarely sufficient, and criteria must be applied to prioritize TMCF for conservation action. This paper reports a priority analysis of the 13 main regions of TMCF distribution in Mexico, based on four criteria: (1) forest quality, (2) threats to forest permanence, (3) threats to forest integrity, and (4) opportunities for conservation. Due to the diverse socio-environmental conditions of the local communities living in Mexican TMCF regions, their associated social characteristics were also evaluated to provide a background for the planning of conservation actions. A set of indicators was defined for the measurement of each criterion. To assign priority values for subregions within each main region, an international team of 40 participants evaluated all the indicators using multicriteria decision-making analysis. This procedure enabled the identification of 15 subregions of critical priority, 17 of high priority, and 10 of medium priority; three more were not analysed due to lack of information. The evaluation revealed a number of subjects that had hitherto been undetected and that may prove useful for prioritization efforts in other regions where TMCF is similarly documented and faces equally severe threats. Based on this analysis, key recommendations are outlined to advance conservation objectives in those TMCF areas that are subjected to high pressure on forest resources.

  14. Hitting a Moving Target: A Strategic Tool for Analyzing Terrorist Threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Ken; Ishisoko, Noriko; Trounce, Milana; Bernard, Kenneth

    The subject of terrorism risk can be confusing for both the general public and for those responsible for protecting us from attack. Relatively minor terrorist threats are often conflated with much more serious ones, in part because it is hard to quantify either intent or technical ability to carry out an attack. Plotting threats on a "potential mass casualties" versus "ease of obtainment or production" matrix creates some order out of a seemingly endless array of worldwide threats, and it highlights those threats that are in need of more urgent attention. The specific threats on this 2x2 matrix can fall into one or multiple quadrants, which can be qualitatively described as "most dangerous," "dangerous but difficult," "worrisome," and "persistent terror." By placing threats into these quadrants and illustrating movement within and between them, the matrix can help (1) visualize and parse a diverse set of threats, (2) view how threats have changed over time and judge the efficacy of current countermeasures, and (3) evaluate the merit of future actions and investments. Having a dynamic matrix that can visually map the comparative risk of terrorist threat events in toto and that can help us monitor the effectiveness of present and future resource investments can add intellectual rigor to some of the most difficult and daunting decisions pertaining to our nation's safety and security.

  15. Information security practices emerging threats and perspectives

    CERN Document Server

    Awad, Ahmed; Woungang, Isaac

    2017-01-01

    This book introduces novel research targeting technical aspects of protecting information security and establishing trust in the digital space. New paradigms, and emerging threats and solutions are presented in topics such as application security and threat management; modern authentication paradigms; digital fraud detection; social engineering and insider threats; cyber threat intelligence; intrusion detection; behavioral biometrics recognition; hardware security analysis. The book presents both the important core and the specialized issues in the areas of protection, assurance, and trust in information security practice. It is intended to be a valuable resource and reference for researchers, instructors, students, scientists, engineers, managers, and industry practitioners. .

  16. Evaluating complex community-based health promotion: addressing the challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolley, Gwyneth

    2014-08-01

    Community-based health promotion is poorly theorised and lacks an agreed evidence-base. This paper examines characteristics of community-based health promotion and the challenges they present to evaluation. A review of health promotion evaluation leads to an exploration of more recent approaches, drawing on ideas from complexity theory and developmental evaluation. A reflexive analysis of three program evaluations previously undertaken as an evaluation consultant is used to develop a conceptual model to help in the design and conduct of health promotion evaluation. The model is further explored by applying it retrospectively to one evaluation. Findings suggest that the context-contingent nature of health promotion programs; turbulence in the community context and players; multiple stakeholders, goals and strategies; and uncertainty of outcomes all contribute to the complexity of interventions. Bringing together insights from developmental evaluation and complexity theory can help to address some evaluation challenges. The proposed model emphasises recognising and responding to changing contexts and emerging outcomes, providing rapid feedback and facilitating reflexive practice. This will enable the evaluator to gain a better understanding of the influence of context and other implementation factors in a complex setting. Use of the model should contribute to building cumulative evidence and knowledge in order to identify the principles of health promotion effectiveness that may be transferable to new situations.

  17. Stereotype Threat and Test Performance: A Primer for School Psychologists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Alexander H.; Lovett, Benjamin J.

    2007-01-01

    Ethical guidelines require school psychologists to ensure that their assessment practices are nondiscriminatory, but typical discussions on this topic neglect the possible discriminatory effects of cultural stereotypes on assessment results. Recent research on "stereotype threat" shows that students' knowledge of stereotype-based negative…

  18. Reasoning about threats: From observables to situation assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burghouts, G.J.; Marck, J.W.

    2011-01-01

    We propose a mechanism to assess threats that are based on observables. Observables are properties of persons, i.e., their behavior and interaction with other persons and objects. We consider observables that can be extracted from sensor signals and intelligence. In this paper, we discuss situation

  19. 49 CFR 1540.209 - Fees for security threat assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... current cost of conducting security threat assessments. TSA determines fee amounts and any necessary revisions to the fee amounts based on current costs, using a method of analysis consistent with widely accepted accounting principles and practices, and calculated in accordance with the provisions of 31...

  20. Software Metrics Evaluation Based on Entropy

    CERN Document Server

    Selvarani, R; Ramachandran, Muthu; Prasad, Kamakshi

    2010-01-01

    Software engineering activities in the Industry has come a long way with various improve- ments brought in various stages of the software development life cycle. The complexity of modern software, the commercial constraints and the expectation for high quality products demand the accurate fault prediction based on OO design metrics in the class level in the early stages of software development. The object oriented class metrics are used as quality predictors in the entire OO software development life cycle even when a highly iterative, incremental model or agile software process is employed. Recent research has shown some of the OO design metrics are useful for predicting fault-proneness of classes. In this paper the empirical validation of a set of metrics proposed by Chidamber and Kemerer is performed to assess their ability in predicting the software quality in terms of fault proneness and degradation. We have also proposed the design complexity of object-oriented software with Weighted Methods per Class m...

  1. Entropy Evaluation Based on Value Validity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tarald O. Kvålseth

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Besides its importance in statistical physics and information theory, the Boltzmann-Shannon entropy S has become one of the most widely used and misused summary measures of various attributes (characteristics in diverse fields of study. It has also been the subject of extensive and perhaps excessive generalizations. This paper introduces the concept and criteria for value validity as a means of determining if an entropy takes on values that reasonably reflect the attribute being measured and that permit different types of comparisons to be made for different probability distributions. While neither S nor its relative entropy equivalent S* meet the value-validity conditions, certain power functions of S and S* do to a considerable extent. No parametric generalization offers any advantage over S in this regard. A measure based on Euclidean distances between probability distributions is introduced as a potential entropy that does comply fully with the value-validity requirements and its statistical inference procedure is discussed.

  2. Indicators of implicit and explicit social anxiety influence threat-related interpretive bias as a function of working memory capacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elske eSalemink

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Interpretive biases play a crucial role in anxiety disorders. The aim of the current study was to examine factors that determine the relative strength of threat-related interpretive biases that are characteristic of individuals high in social anxiety. Different (dual process models argue that both implicit and explicit processes determine information processing biases and behaviour, and that their impact is moderated by the availability of executive resources such as working memory capacity (WMC. Based on these models, we expected indicators of implicit social anxiety to predict threat-related interpretive bias in individuals low, but not high in WMC. Indicators of explicit social anxiety should predict threat-related interpretive bias in individuals high, but not low in WMC. As expected, WMC moderated the impact of implicit social anxiety on threat-related interpretive bias, although the simple slope for individuals low in WMC was not statistically significant. The hypotheses regarding explicit social anxiety (with fear of negative evaluation used as an indicator were fully supported. The clinical implications of these findings are discussed.

  3. Muscle fatigue based evaluation of bicycle design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasubramanian, V; Jagannath, M; Adalarasu, K

    2014-03-01

    Bicycling posture leads to considerable discomfort and a variety of chronic injuries. This necessitates a proper bicycle design to avoid injuries and thereby enhance rider comfort. The objective of this study was to investigate the muscle activity during cycling on three different bicycle designs, i.e., rigid frame (RF), suspension (SU) and sports (SP) using surface electromyography (sEMG). Twelve male volunteers participated in this study. sEMG signals were acquired bilaterally from extensor carpi radialis (ECR), trapezius medial (TM), latissimus dorsi medial (LDM) and erector spinae (ES), during 30 min of cycling on each bicycle and after cycling. Time domain (RMS) and frequency domain (MPF) parameters were extracted from acquired sEMG signals. From the sEMG study, it was found that the fatigue in right LDM and ES were significantly (p bicycle. This was corroborated by a psychophysical assessment based on RBG pain scale. The study also showed that there was a significantly lesser fatigue with the SU bicycle than the RF and SP bicycles.

  4. Threat by association: do distant intergroup threats carry-over into local intolerance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouman, Thijs; van Zomeren, Martijn; Otten, Sabine

    2014-09-01

    Individuals are often confronted with intergroup threats, yet many of these threats emanate from distant groups that most individuals are unlikely to encounter in their local environment. An important yet unanswered question is whether reactions to those threats, such as intolerance towards the threatening group, carry over to other groups that individuals actually do encounter in their local environment (e.g., immigrants). The main goal of our studies was to experimentally identify this carry-over effect of intergroup threat. Specifically, we hypothesized that (by definition relatively abstract) symbolic threats (e.g., threats to the ingroup's worldview) have an especially strong carry-over potential because those threats can be easily attributed to other outgroups. We tested these predictions in one correlational and two experimental studies. The results of all three studies confirmed our hypothesis that particularly distant symbolic threats were predictive of intolerance towards local outgroups.

  5. Evaluating Curriculum-Based Measurement from a Behavioral Assessment Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardoin, Scott P.; Roof, Claire M.; Klubnick, Cynthia; Carfolite, Jessica

    2008-01-01

    Curriculum-based measurement Reading (CBM-R) is an assessment procedure used to evaluate students' relative performance compared to peers and to evaluate their growth in reading. Within the response to intervention (RtI) model, CBM-R data are plotted in time series fashion as a means modeling individual students' response to varying levels of…

  6. Evaluating potentialities and constrains of Problem Based Learning curriculum

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guerra, Aida

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a research design to evaluate Problem Based Learning (PBL) curriculum potentialities and constrains for future changes. PBL literature lacks examples of how to evaluate and analyse established PBL learning environments to address new challenges posed. The research design......) in the curriculum and a mean to choose cases for further case study (third phase)....

  7. Evaluation of a Community-Based Aging Intervention Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Hui-Chuan; Wang, Chun-Hou; Chen, Yi-Chun; Chang, Ming-Chen; Wang, Jean

    2010-01-01

    This study evaluated the outcome and process of a community-based aging intervention program for the elderly in Taiwan. The program included education on nutrition and dietary behavior and on physical activities. Outcome and process evaluations were conducted. The program may have had some effects on decreasing some dietary behavioral problems and…

  8. Detecting Security threats in the Router using Computational Intelligence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Visumathi

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Information security is an issue of global concern. As the Internet is delivering great convenience and benefits to the modern society, the rapidly increasing connectivity and accessibility to the Internet is also posing a serious threat to security and privacy, to individuals, organizations, and nations alike. Finding effective ways to detect, prevent, and respond to intrusions and hacker attacks of networked computers and information systems. This paper presents a knowledge discovery frame work to detect DoS attacks at the boundary controllers (routers. The idea is to use machine learning approach to discover network features that can depict the state of the network connection. Using important network data (DoS relevant features, we have developed kernel machine based and soft computing detection mechanisms that achieve high detection accuracies. We also present our work of identifying DoS pertinent features and evaluating the applicability of these features in detecting novel DoS attacks. Architecture for detecting DoS attacks at the router is presented. We demonstrate that highly efficient and accurate signature based classifiers can be constructed by using important network features and machine learning techniques to detect DoS attacks at the boundary controllers.

  9. Threats: power, family mealtimes, and social influence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hepburn, Alexa; Potter, Jonathan

    2011-03-01

    One of the most basic topics in social psychology is the way one agent influences the behaviour of another. This paper will focus on threats, which are an intensified form of attempted behavioural influence. Despite the centrality to the project of social psychology, little attention has been paid to threats. This paper will start to rectify this oversight. It reviews early examples of the way social psychology handles threats and highlights key limitations and presuppositions about the nature and role of threats. By contrast, we subject them to a programme of empirical research. Data comprise video records of a collection of family mealtimes that include preschool children. Threats are recurrent in this material. A preliminary conceptualization of features of candidate threats from this corpus will be used as an analytic start point. A series of examples are used to explicate basic features and dimensions that build the action of threatening. The basic structure of the threats uses a conditional logic: if the recipient continues problem action/does not initiate required action then negative consequences will be produced by the speaker. Further analysis clarifies how threats differ from warnings and admonishments. Sequential analysis suggests threats set up basic response options of compliance or defiance. However, recipients of threats can evade these options by, for example, reworking the unpleasant upshot specified in the threat, or producing barely minimal compliance. The implications for broader social psychological concerns are explored in a discussion of power, resistance, and asymmetry; the paper ends by reconsidering the way social influence can be studied in social psychology.

  10. Objective Evaluation Method of Steering Comfort Based on Movement Quality Evaluation of Driver Steering Maneuver

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Yiyong; LIU Yahui; WANG Man; JI Run; JI Xuewu

    2014-01-01

    The existing research of steering comfort mainly focuses on the subjective evaluation, aiming at designing and optimizing the steering system. In the development of steering system, especially the evaluation of steering comfort, the objective evaluation methods considered the kinematic characteristics of driver steering maneuver are not proposed, which means that the objective evaluation of steering cannot be conducted with the evaluation of kinematic characteristics of driver in steering maneuver. In order to propose the objective evaluation methods of steering comfort, the evaluation of steering movement quality of driver is developed on the basis of the study of the kinematic characteristics of steering maneuver. First, the steering motion trajectories of the driver in both comfortable and certain extreme uncomfortable operation conditions are detected using the Vicon motion capture system. The operation conditions are under the restrictions of the vertical height and horizontal distance between steering wheel center and the H-point of driver, and the steering resisting torque else. Next, the movement quality evaluation of driver steering maneuver is assessed using twelve kinds of evaluation indices based on the kinematic analyses of the steering motion trajectories to propose an objective evaluation method. Finally, an integrated discomfort index of steering maneuver is proposed on the basis of the regression analysis of subjective evaluation rating and the movement quality evaluation indices, including the Jerk, Discomfort and Joint Torque indices. The test results show that the proposed integrated discomfort index gives a good fitting with the subjective evaluation of discomfort, which means it can be used to evaluate or predict the discomfort level of steering maneuver. This paper proposes an objective evaluation method of steering comfort based on the movement quality evaluation of driver steering maneuver.

  11. Lange’s Metalmark Butterfly Threat Assessment and Ranking of Potential Management Alternatives: Final Report

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service staff and other interested scientists and parties held a workshop on April 11 and 12, 2013, to evaluate threats and rank potential...

  12. Vibrotactile and visual threat cueing with high g threat intercept in dynamic flight simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eriksson, L.; Erp, J.B.F. van; Carlander, O.; Levin, B.; Veen, H.A.H.C. van; Veltman, J.E.

    2006-01-01

    In a TNO and FOI joint study, nine fighter pilots participated in a threat detection and intercept experiment in the Swedish Dynamic Flight Simulator. Visual threat cueing with a simulated Gripen aircraft head-up display (HUD) symbology was compared with combined visual and vibrotactile threat cuein

  13. Threat by association : Do distant intergroup threats carry-over into local intolerance?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouman, Thijs; van Zomeren, Martijn; Otten, Sabine

    2014-01-01

    Individuals are often confronted with intergroup threats, yet many of these threats emanate from distant groups that most individuals are unlikely to encounter in their local environment. An important yet unanswered question is whether reactions to those threats, such as intolerance towards the thre

  14. Network Monitoring for Web-Based Threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-01

    recognizable URL structure. A few example URLs are shown in Figure 5-33. http://www.example.com/pls/xyz http://www.example.com/xyz/ owa http://www.example.com...PORTAL • PORTAL2 • PORTAL30 • PORTAL30_SSO • TEST • DAD • APP • ONLINE • DB • OWA CMU/SEI-2011-TR-005 | 50 In addition to the URLs in...to packages that form the PL/SQL Web Toolkit, such as the OWA and HTP packages. One package of note is the OWA_UTIL package, which contains a

  15. Cosmic Impacts: The DoomsDay Threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGaha, J.

    1998-07-01

    Recent science fiction movies (Deep Impact and Armageddon) have brought public attention to the threat of possible impacts from space. Just how real is this threat and what would be the consequences of such an impact? Can we do anything to prevent it? The survival of civilization may depend on it.

  16. Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats

    CERN Document Server

    Bier, Vicki M

    2008-01-01

    Introduces reliability and risk analysis in the face of threats by intelligent agents. This book covers applications to networks, including problems in both telecommunications and transportation. It provides a set of tools for applying game theory TO reliability problems in the presence of intentional, intelligent threats

  17. How you perceive threat determines your behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orlando Fernandes Junior

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The prioritization of processing emotional stimuli usually produces deleterious effects on task performance when it distracts from a task. One common explanation is that brain resources are consumed by emotional stimuli, diverting resources away from executing the task. Viewing unpleasant stimuli also generates defensive reactions, and these responses may be at least partially responsible for the effect of the emotional modulation observed in various reaction time (RT paradigms. We investigated whether modulatory effects on RT vary if we presented threat stimuli to prompt different defensive responses. To trigger different responses, we manipulated threat perception by moving the direction of threatening stimuli. Threatening or neutral stimuli were presented as distractors during a bar orientation discrimination task. The results demonstrated that threat stimuli directed towards the observer produced a decrease in RT; in contrast, threat stimuli directed away from the observer produced an increase in RT, when compared to neutral stimuli. Accelerated RT during direct threat stimuli was attributed to increased motor preparation resulting from strong activation of the defense response cascade. In contrast, no direct threat stimuli likely activated the defense cascade, but less intensively, prompting immobility. Different threat stimuli produced varying effects, which was interpreted as evidence that the modulation of RT by emotional stimuli represents the summation of attentional and motivational effects. Additionally, participants who had been previously exposed to diverse types of violent crime were more strongly influenced by direct threat stimuli. In sum, our data support the concept that emotions are indeed action tendencies.

  18. The Nature of the Bioterrorism Threat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Regens, J. L.

    2003-02-25

    This analysis provides an overview of the nature of the bioterrorism threat. It identifies potential CDC Class A biological agents that are likely candidates for use in a terrorist incident and describes the known sources of vulnerability. The paper also summarizes S&T resources/needs and assesses response options for achieving effective biodefense against terrorist threats.

  19. Research on Maintainability Evaluation Model Based on Fuzzy Theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Maintainability influencing attributes are analyzed, their weight and value calculating methods are given, and the maintainability fuzzy evaluation method is proposed based on the relative closeness. According to the maintenance task simulation operated in virtual environment, the maintainability virtual evaluation model is built by analyzing the maintenance task for each replaceable unit of product.At last, a case study is given based upon the main landing gear system of a certain type civil aircraft, and the result indicates that the model is suitable for maintainability qualitative evaluation and can support maintainability concurrent design.

  20. What Is Going On Around Here? Intolerance of Uncertainty Predicts Threat Generalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morriss, Jayne; Macdonald, Birthe; van Reekum, Carien M.

    2016-01-01

    Attending to stimuli that share perceptual similarity to learned threats is an adaptive strategy. However, prolonged threat generalization to cues signalling safety is considered a core feature of pathological anxiety. One potential factor that may sustain over-generalization is sensitivity to future threat uncertainty. To assess the extent to which Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU) predicts threat generalization, we recorded skin conductance in 54 healthy participants during an associative learning paradigm, where threat and safety cues varied in perceptual similarity. Lower IU was associated with stronger discrimination between threat and safety cues during acquisition and extinction. Higher IU, however, was associated with generalized responding to threat and safety cues during acquisition, and delayed discrimination between threat and safety cues during extinction. These results were specific to IU, over and above other measures of anxious disposition. These findings highlight: (1) a critical role of uncertainty-based mechanisms in threat generalization, and (2) IU as a potential risk factor for anxiety disorder development. PMID:27167217

  1. Authoritarian reactions to terrorist threat: who is being threatened, the Me or the We?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asbrock, Frank; Fritsche, Immo

    2013-01-01

    Endorsement of authoritarian attitudes has been observed to increase under conditions of terrorist threat. However, it is not clear whether this effect is a genuine response to perceptions of personal or collective threat. We investigated this question in two experiments using German samples. In the first experiment (N = 144), both general and specific authoritarian tendencies increased after asking people to imagine that they were personally affected by terrorism. No such effect occurred when they were made to think about Germany as a whole being affected by terrorism. This finding was replicated and extended in a second experiment (N = 99), in which personal and collective threat were manipulated orthogonally. Authoritarian and ethnocentric (ingroup bias) reactions occurred only for people highly identified with their national ingroup under personal threat, indicating that authoritarian responses may operate as a group-level coping strategy for a threat to the personal self. Again, we found no effects for collective threat. In both studies, authoritarianism mediated the effects of personal threat on more specific authoritarian and ethnocentric reactions. These results suggest that the effects of terrorist threat on authoritarianism can, at least in part, be attributed to a sense of personal insecurity, raised under conditions of terrorist threat. We discuss the present findings with regard to basic sociomotivational processes (e.g., group-based control restoration, terror management) and how these may relate to recent models of authoritarianism.

  2. Overall test evaluation based on trajectory tracking data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王正明; 段晓君

    2001-01-01

    According to the trajectory characteristics of ballistic missile, a reduced parameter model is constructed based on difference between telemetry trajectory and trajectory tracking data. By virtue of Bayesian theory and data fusion technique, a new test evaluation method is put forth, which can make full use of the trajectory tracking data, shooting range test data and relevant information. Since the impact point can be derived from trajectory difference and its kinetic characteristics, evaluation of the impact point is a special case of this method. The accurate evaluation and the accuracy of evaluation results can be provided by the new method.

  3. Logistics Enterprise Evaluation Model Based On Fuzzy Clustering Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Pei-hua; Yin, Hong-bo

    In this thesis, we introduced an evaluation model based on fuzzy cluster algorithm of logistics enterprises. First of all,we present the evaluation index system which contains basic information, management level, technical strength, transport capacity,informatization level, market competition and customer service. We decided the index weight according to the grades, and evaluated integrate ability of the logistics enterprises using fuzzy cluster analysis method. In this thesis, we introduced the system evaluation module and cluster analysis module in detail and described how we achieved these two modules. At last, we gave the result of the system.

  4. Evaluation and Improvement of Food Safety Satisfaction Based on QFD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pu Jin

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In view of the social phenomenon of people's generally low satisfaction with food safety, we introduced the QFD method to make evaluation and guidance for improvement. Based on scientific and reasonable evaluation index system of food safety satisfaction and the “quality house” of QFD core tool, a food safety satisfaction evaluation model was constructed. On the basis of the evaluation results, we analyzed the public food safety requirements and constructed the quality house between the public food safety requirements and the food safety satisfaction improvement measures, so as to determine the priority of configuration sequence of improvement measures.

  5. Increasing Student Evaluation Capacity through a Collaborative Community-Based Program Evaluation Teaching Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlisle, Shauna K.; Kruzich, Jean M.

    2013-01-01

    The evaluation literature reflects a long-standing interest in ways to provide practical hands-on training experience in evaluation courses. Concomitantly, some funders have shown rising expectations for increased accountability on the part of Community-Based organizations (CBOs), even though agencies often lack the associated funding and…

  6. Web-Based Tools for Collaborative Evaluation of Learning Resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John C. Nesbit

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of large repositories of web-based learning resources has increased the need for valid and usable evaluation tools. This paper reviews current approaches to learning object evaluation and introduces eLera, a set of web-based tools we have developed for communities of teachers, learners, instructional designers and developers. Compatible with current metadata standards, eLera provides a learning object review instrument (LORI and other features supporting collaborative evaluation. eLera provides limited translation of evaluations and subject taxonomies across communities using different languages and terminology. eLera is designed to assist researchers to gather data on evaluation processes and has been used to teach educators how to assess the quality of multimedia learning resources.

  7. Moldability Evaluation for Molded Parts Based on Fuzzy Reasoning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Moldability evaluation for molded parts, which is the basis of concurrent design, is a key design stage in injection molding design. By moldability evaluation the design problems can be found timely and an optimum plastic part design achieved. In this paper, a systematic methodology for moldability evaluation based on fuzzy logic is proposed. Firstly, fuzzy set modeling for six key design attributes of molded parts is carried out respectively. Secondly, on the basis of this, the relationship between fuzzy sets for design attributes and fuzzy sets for moldability is established by fuzzy rules that are based on domain experts' experience and knowledge. At last the integral moldability for molded parts is obtained through fuzzy reasoning. The neural network based fuzzy reasoning approach presented in this paper can improve fuzzy reasoning efficiency greatly, especially for system having a large number of rules and complicated membership functions. An example for moldability evaluation is given to show the feasibility of this proposed methodology.

  8. Radiological threat, public and media: a psychosociological view

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arciszewski, T. [University Rene Descartes - Paris 5, 92 - Boulogne (France)

    2006-07-01

    Nuclear risk has become a major social communication along the 20. century because of its critical socio-political impact. That communication is not limited to expert speeches and simple acceptation. The way people understand that kind of threat is based on beliefs and on imaginary pictures. Consequently, and because it shapes people attitude, expectations and behaviours, their analysis is a key for policy and prevention. We will present, in the light of the research on risk perception and social psychology theoretical background, how people can manage with the nuclear fear. Some particular points will be studied: the nature of nuclear threat and fear, the cultural and media coverage and the consequences of this threat on behaviour. We will first focus on what a societal threat is and of which nature is the nuclear threat. We will rely on statistical data on risk perception. We have to consider the two main fields of information: first the nuclear threat as a mass destruction weapon and second, the radiological risk as a consequence of civil use of radiological material. Those two aspects, deeply related for most people, make the roots for the described fears. Then, the perception of the risks relative to nuclear is necessarily influenced by this representation. The representation of the nuclear power is and will be for next years, related to the nuclear mushroom as experimentally pointed o ut by Fiske, both with the abnormal children of Chernobyl. How can we change that vision? Not to be a liar, it will be hard work because it a old story, a long construction of what will be the future of mankind, something deeply influenced by media, movie, geopolitical facts like the cold war or technological accident like Three Mile Island or Chernobyl. It has to deal with the problem of media transmission of fears, which is a problem in itself, but due to the scientific base of our problem, particularly relevant. Moreover, there is a strong cultural background that maintains

  9. Stereotype threat prevents perceptual learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rydell, Robert J; Shiffrin, Richard M; Boucher, Kathryn L; Van Loo, Katie; Rydell, Michael T

    2010-08-10

    Stereotype threat (ST) refers to a situation in which a member of a group fears that her or his performance will validate an existing negative performance stereotype, causing a decrease in performance. For example, reminding women of the stereotype "women are bad at math" causes them to perform more poorly on math questions from the SAT and GRE. Performance deficits can be of several types and be produced by several mechanisms. We show that ST prevents perceptual learning, defined in our task as an increasing rate of search for a target Chinese character in a display of such characters. Displays contained two or four characters and half of these contained a target. Search rate increased across a session of training for a control group of women, but not women under ST. Speeding of search is typically explained in terms of learned "popout" (automatic attraction of attention to a target). Did women under ST learn popout but fail to express it? Following training, the women were shown two colored squares and asked to choose the one with the greater color saturation. Superimposed on the squares were task-irrelevant Chinese characters. For women not trained under ST, the presence of a trained target on one square slowed responding, indicating that training had caused the learning of an attention response to targets. Women trained under ST showed no slowing, indicating that they had not learned such an attention response.

  10. In Brief: Forecasting meningitis threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    2008-12-01

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), in conjunction with a team of health and weather organizations, has launched a project to provide weather forecasts to medical officials in Africa to help reduce outbreaks of meningitis. The forecasts will enable local health care providers to target vaccination programs more effectively. In 2009, meteorologists with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is managed by UCAR, will begin issuing 14-day forecasts of atmospheric conditions in Ghana. Later, UCAR plans to work closely with health experts from several African countries to design and test a decision support system to provide health officials with useful meteorological information. ``By targeting forecasts in regions where meningitis is a threat, we may be able to help vulnerable populations. Ultimately, we hope to build on this project and provide information to public health programs battling weather-related diseases in other parts of the world,'' said Rajul Pandya, director of UCAR's Community Building Program. Funding for the project comes from a $900,000 grant from Google.org, the philanthropic arm of the Internet search company.

  11. [Counterfeit medicines: a growing threat].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbereau, S

    2006-12-01

    The medical drug market has undergone considerable transformation in recent years. Like other products, medicines have been affected by globalization. Free trade policies have had a number of negative effects including a reduction in quality control not only for some products but also for raw materials and finished products. The global environment has also created conditions conducive to counterfeit medicines. The term counterfeit medicine is defined differently from one country to another in terms of quality, legality and fraudulent intent. This situation prompted the WHO to propose the following definition: "A counterfeit medicine is one which is deliberately and fraudulently mislabeled with respect to identity and/or source. Counterfeiting can apply to both branded and generic products and counterfeit products may include products with the correct ingredients or with the wrong ingredients, without active ingredients, with insufficient active ingredients or with fake packaging." Weak pharmaceutical regulation often compounded by widespread corruption in developing countries has greatly facilitated the development of this illicit market with harmful and costly effects on public health. Due to the lack of pharmocovigilance accidents involving use of counterfeit drugs go unreported. For this reason it is not possible to measure the economic impact. While counterfeiting has become a major threat in developing countries, it also affects industrialized countries. Fraudulent behavior occurs all over the world.

  12. Evolutionary Evaluation: implications for evaluators, researchers, practitioners, funders and the evidence-based program mandate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban, Jennifer Brown; Hargraves, Monica; Trochim, William M

    2014-08-01

    Evolutionary theory, developmental systems theory, and evolutionary epistemology provide deep theoretical foundations for understanding programs, their development over time, and the role of evaluation. This paper relates core concepts from these powerful bodies of theory to program evaluation. Evolutionary Evaluation is operationalized in terms of program and evaluation evolutionary phases, which are in turn aligned with multiple types of validity. The model of Evolutionary Evaluation incorporates Chen's conceptualization of bottom-up versus top-down program development. The resulting framework has important implications for many program management and evaluation issues. The paper illustrates how an Evolutionary Evaluation perspective can illuminate important controversies in evaluation using the example of the appropriate role of randomized controlled trials that encourages a rethinking of "evidence-based programs". From an Evolutionary Evaluation perspective, prevailing interpretations of rigor and mandates for evidence-based programs pose significant challenges to program evolution. This perspective also illuminates the consequences of misalignment between program and evaluation phases; the importance of supporting both researcher-derived and practitioner-derived programs; and the need for variation and evolutionary phase diversity within portfolios of programs.

  13. Towards securing SCADA systems against process-related threats

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hadziosmanovic, Dina; Bolzoni, Damiano; Hartel, Pieter

    2010-01-01

    We propose a tool-assisted approach to address process-related threats on SCADA systems. Process-related threats have not been addressed before in a systematic manner. Our approach consists of two steps: threat analysis and threat mitigation. For the threat analysis, we combine two methodologies (PH

  14. Threat Assessment of Target Group Based on Improved Glowworm Swarm Optimization and BP Neural Network%基于改进萤火虫优化算法的BP神经网络目标群威胁判断

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王新为; 朱青松; 谭安胜; 张永生

    2014-01-01

    以舰艇防空作战目标选择决策和规划需求为背景,针对萤火虫算法求解精度不高且收敛速度较慢的问题,提出可动态调整步长的改进萤火虫优化算法。在改进萤火虫优化算法的基础上,建立基于改进萤火虫优化算法的BP神经网络目标群威胁判断结构模型。通过改进萤火虫算法优化BP神经网络的初始权值和阈值,能够更好地预测测试集。实验结果表明,该方法可快速、准确地实现目标群威胁判断。%Setting the ship air defense system as a background, aiming at the problem of the accuracy can not meet the re⁃quirements and the convergence is slow in glowworm swarm optimization, the glowworm swarm optimization adjusting the a⁃daptive step size dynamically is put foruard. It Establishes judge model improved the glowworm swarm optimization and BP neural network based on the improved glowworm swarm optimization algorithm. Optimization of BP neural network by impro⁃ving the firefly algorithm the initial weights and thresholds, prediction can be better on the test set. Experimental results show that, the method can realize the threat assessment of target group quickly and accurately.

  15. Evaluating evaluation as a communication process. What role for formative evaluation in ICT-based knowledge acquisition?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    USEILLE Philippe

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available This article examines how formative evaluation as a communication process contributes to knowledge acquisition in using ICT (Information and Communication Technologies. Previous studies, especially in the field of education and training, have shown that formative evaluation plays a crucial part in the learning process because it contributes to learning to learn. Through formative evaluation, the learner becomes aware of errors and can adjust learning strategies to the situation. In addition, formative evaluation provides the teaching side with significant and useful information. Consequently, ICT researches have developed a wide range of solutions for this specific purpose. It is however difficult to check the efficiency of these tools by considering the effects of ICT in the knowledge acquisition process. I suggest that formative evaluation includes also a communication system that has an effect on the learning process. This study tackles the issue by proposing an alternative approach to formative evaluation that considers it as both a learning and a communication process. The study is based on SADT (Structure Analysis and Design Technique that provides a suitable description for the whole complex communication process. It allows a rigorous understanding and identification of the variables of evaluation as a communication process in order to take care of an ICT frame. Finally, this article outlines a multidisciplinary method to evaluate formative evaluation by focusing on the validity facets of the communication process. Keywords: formative evaluation, communication process, validity criteria, ICT training context.

  16. External threat and the definition of deviance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laudedale, P; Smith-Cunnien, P; Parker, J; Inverarity, J

    1984-05-01

    Research ( Lauderdale , 1976; Schachter , 1951) suggests that an external threat to a group can lead to the rejection of deviant members of the group and alteration of group communication patterns and solidarity. This study sought to extend those findings, integrate them with concepts from Simmel 's (1917/1955) work on group conflict, and link them to key issues in the societal reaction approach to deviant behavior. We examined the effect of variation in level of threat, the relationship between deviant status and nonconformity to the central task norm, the role of high-status actors in deviance designation, the relationship between rejection and negative definition of the deviant, and the effects of rejection and negative definition on group solidarity. Hypotheses were tested in an experimental design involving three conditions (strong threat, weak threat, and no threat). The results suggest that (a) the level of threat is directly related to the extent of rejection and negative definition, (b) nonconformity to the central task norm is not systematically related to deviant status, (c) high-status actors are more involved in the rejection of the deviant, (d) sociometric rejection of the deviant is accompanied by negative definition in the strong-threat condition, and (e) the level of group solidarity is related to the extent of rejection and negative definition. Implications of these findings are discussed relative to the societal reaction approach to deviant behavior and analogous processes in other social groups.

  17. ISO9126 BASED SOFTWARE QUALITY EVALUATION USING CHOQUET INTEGRAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelkareem M. Alashqar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating software quality is an important and essential issue in the development process because it helps to deliver a competitive software product. A decision of selecting the best software based on quality attributes is a type of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM processes where interactions among criteria should be considered. This paper presents and develops quantitative evaluations by considering interactions among criteria in the MCDM problems. The aggregator methods such as Arithmetic Mean (AM and Weighted Arithmetic Mean (WAM are introduced, described and compared to Choquet Integral (CI approach which is a type of fuzzy measure used as a new method for MCDM. The comparisons are shown by evaluating and ranking software alternatives based on six main quality attributes as identified by the ISO 9126-1 standard. The evaluation experiments depend on real data collected from case studies.

  18. Redesigning Computer-based Learning Environments: Evaluation as Communication

    CERN Document Server

    Brust, Matthias R; Ricarte, Ivan M L

    2007-01-01

    In the field of evaluation research, computer scientists live constantly upon dilemmas and conflicting theories. As evaluation is differently perceived and modeled among educational areas, it is not difficult to become trapped in dilemmas, which reflects an epistemological weakness. Additionally, designing and developing a computer-based learning scenario is not an easy task. Advancing further, with end-users probing the system in realistic settings, is even harder. Computer science research in evaluation faces an immense challenge, having to cope with contributions from several conflicting and controversial research fields. We believe that deep changes must be made in our field if we are to advance beyond the CBT (computer-based training) learning model and to build an adequate epistemology for this challenge. The first task is to relocate our field by building upon recent results from philosophy, psychology, social sciences, and engineering. In this article we locate evaluation in respect to communication s...

  19. A study of combined evaluation of suppliers based on correlation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heting Qiu

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The Selection of logistics service providers is an important issue in supply chain management. But different evaluation methods may lead to different results, which could cause inconsistent conclusions. This paper makes use of a new perspective to combine with a variety of methods to eliminate the deviation of different single evaluation methods. Design/methodology/approach: This paper expounds the application of the combined evaluation method based on correlation. Entropy method, factor analysis, grey colligation evaluation and AHP have been used for research. Findings: According to the evaluate result, the ranking of suppliers obtained by each method have obvious differences. The result shows that combined evaluation method can eliminate the deviation of different single evaluation methods. Originality/value: The combined evaluation method makes up for the defects of single evaluation methods and obtains a result that is more stable and creditable with smaller deviation. This study can provide the enterprise leaders with more scientific method to select their cooperative companies. 

  20. Interfacing a biosurveillance portal and an international network of institutional analysts to detect biological threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riccardo, Flavia; Shigematsu, Mika; Chow, Catherine; McKnight, C Jason; Linge, Jens; Doherty, Brian; Dente, Maria Grazia; Declich, Silvia; Barker, Mike; Barboza, Philippe; Vaillant, Laetitia; Donachie, Alastair; Mawudeku, Abla; Blench, Michael; Arthur, Ray

    2014-01-01

    The Early Alerting and Reporting (EAR) project, launched in 2008, is aimed at improving global early alerting and risk assessment and evaluating the feasibility and opportunity of integrating the analysis of biological, chemical, radionuclear (CBRN), and pandemic influenza threats. At a time when no international collaborations existed in the field of event-based surveillance, EAR's innovative approach involved both epidemic intelligence experts and internet-based biosurveillance system providers in the framework of an international collaboration called the Global Health Security Initiative, which involved the ministries of health of the G7 countries and Mexico, the World Health Organization, and the European Commission. The EAR project pooled data from 7 major internet-based biosurveillance systems onto a common portal that was progressively optimized for biological threat detection under the guidance of epidemic intelligence experts from public health institutions in Canada, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The group became the first end users of the EAR portal, constituting a network of analysts working with a common standard operating procedure and risk assessment tools on a rotation basis to constantly screen and assess public information on the web for events that could suggest an intentional release of biological agents. Following the first 2-year pilot phase, the EAR project was tested in its capacity to monitor biological threats, proving that its working model was feasible and demonstrating the high commitment of the countries and international institutions involved. During the testing period, analysts using the EAR platform did not miss intentional events of a biological nature and did not issue false alarms. Through the findings of this initial assessment, this article provides insights into how the field of epidemic intelligence can advance through an

  1. Threat, security and attitude formation among the young

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radin, Furio

    1985-12-01

    The perception of threat to security on the part of young people reflects a central aspect of the societal phenomenon of attitude formation, whose primary function is, ideally, to meet the need for security. In all modern societies, however, the process of socialization — which by its very nature is educational in that it prepares individuals to function as members of society — operates on the principle of systematically frustrating this need by employing a system of reward and punishment based on competition. This system creates a fundamental insecurity and a corresponding attitude (de)formation in the individual, which is exploited by the state in order to consolidate the power of the dominant groups. Due to this fundamental insecurity, the individual is incapable of coping rationally with threat and seeks pseudo-security, e.g., in conformity. Threat — particularly global threat — is perceived as an external factor over which the individual has no control, i.e., it is perceived as falling exclusively within the province of those in power, whose control is further strengthened by this perception. Since the essential damage to the individual's attitude system has been done by the time he leaves school, this undesirable condition of modern societies can only be rectified by a socialization process in general — and an educational process in particular — which cultivates in the individual the development of critical judgment, free self-realization and the spirit of co-operation instead of competition.

  2. Data Base on Peer Evaluation of Research in the Netherlands - PER-Base - 1993-2013

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Drooge, L.; de Jong, S.; Faber, M.; Westerheijden, D.

    2013-01-01

    PER-Base contains information on institutional research evaluation in the Netherlands. It covers results from evaluations with the 'Vereniging van Samenwerkende Nederlandse Universiteiten' - VSNU 1993, VSNU 1994 and VSNU 1998 protocols as well as the 'Standard Evaluation Protocol' - SEP 2003-2009 an

  3. Emerging oomycete threats to plants and animals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derevnina, Lida; Petre, Benjamin; Kellner, Ronny; Dagdas, Yasin F; Sarowar, Mohammad Nasif; Giannakopoulou, Artemis; De la Concepcion, Juan Carlos; Chaparro-Garcia, Angela; Pennington, Helen G; van West, Pieter; Kamoun, Sophien

    2016-12-05

    Oomycetes, or water moulds, are fungal-like organisms phylogenetically related to algae. They cause devastating diseases in both plants and animals. Here, we describe seven oomycete species that are emerging or re-emerging threats to agriculture, horticulture, aquaculture and natural ecosystems. They include the plant pathogens Phytophthora infestans, Phytophthora palmivora, Phytophthora ramorum, Plasmopara obducens, and the animal pathogens Aphanomyces invadans, Saprolegnia parasitica and Halioticida noduliformans For each species, we describe its pathology, importance and impact, discuss why it is an emerging threat and briefly review current research activities.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'.

  4. THE BIOTERRORISM THREAT: TECHNOLOGICAL AND POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. F. PILAT

    2000-03-01

    Bioterrorism--along with biowarfare, from which it may not always be distinguishable in practice--will be a feature of the strategic landscape in the 21st century and is high on the US national security agenda. Bioterrorism poses a potential threat to the US population, agriculture, interests, friends and allies, and military forces (asymmetric threats). Yet these possibilities have not been widely pursued or realized by terrorists. The perceived threat is far worse than anything experienced to date, and is largely technologically driven.

  5. Identity threat and stigma in cancer patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Knapp

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Cancer stigma has undergone an important transformation in recent decades. In general, this disease no longer fits squarely into Goffman’s classic taxonomy of stigmatized conditions. This review will demonstrate that, with important adaptations, an identity-threat model of stigma can be used to organize cancer stigma research post-Goffman. This adapted model postulates that one’s personal attributions, responses to situational threat, and disease/treatment characteristics can be used to predict identity threat and well-being of individuals with cancer. Implications for further research and clinical practice are discussed.

  6. A online credit evaluation method based on AHP and SPA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yingtao; Zhang, Ying

    2009-07-01

    Online credit evaluation is the foundation for the establishment of trust and for the management of risk between buyers and sellers in e-commerce. In this paper, a new credit evaluation method based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the set pair analysis (SPA) is presented to determine the credibility of the electronic commerce participants. It solves some of the drawbacks found in classical credit evaluation methods and broadens the scope of current approaches. Both qualitative and quantitative indicators are considered in the proposed method, then a overall credit score is achieved from the optimal perspective. In the end, a case analysis of China Garment Network is provided for illustrative purposes.

  7. Distracted by the Unthought - Suppression and Reappraisal of Mind Wandering under Stereotype Threat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, Carolin; Martiny, Sarah E; Schmader, Toni

    2015-01-01

    Previous research has found that subtle reminders of negative stereotypes about one's group can lead individuals to underperform on stereotype-relevant tests (e.g., women in math, ethnic minorities on intelligence tests). This so called stereotype threat effect can contribute to systematic group differences in performance that can obscure the true abilities of certain social groups and thereby sustain social inequalities. In the present study, we examined processes underlying stereotype threat effects on women's math performance, specifically focusing on the role of suppression of mind wandering (i.e., task-irrelevant thinking) in stereotype threat (ST) and no threat (NT) situations. Based on a process model of stereotype threat effects on performance, we hypothesized that women under stereotype threat spontaneously suppress mind wandering, and that this suppression impairs performance. An alternative regulation strategy that prevents suppression (i.e., reappraising task-irrelevant thoughts as normal) was predicted to prevent stereotype threat effects on performance. We manipulated stereotype threat (ST vs. NT) and cognitive regulation strategy (suppression, reappraisal, or no strategy) and measured women's performance on a math and a concentration task (N = 113). We expected three groups to perform relatively more poorly: Those in ST with either no strategy or suppression and those in NT with a suppression strategy. We tested the performance of these groups against the remaining three groups hypothesized to perform relatively better: those in NT with no strategy or reappraisal and those in ST with reappraisal. The results showed the expected pattern for participants' math performance, but not for concentration achievement. This pattern suggests that ineffective self-regulation by suppressing mind wandering can at least partly explain stereotype threat effects on performance, whereas a reappraisal strategy can prevent this impairment. We discuss implications for

  8. Distracted by the Unthought - Suppression and Reappraisal of Mind Wandering under Stereotype Threat.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolin Schuster

    Full Text Available Previous research has found that subtle reminders of negative stereotypes about one's group can lead individuals to underperform on stereotype-relevant tests (e.g., women in math, ethnic minorities on intelligence tests. This so called stereotype threat effect can contribute to systematic group differences in performance that can obscure the true abilities of certain social groups and thereby sustain social inequalities. In the present study, we examined processes underlying stereotype threat effects on women's math performance, specifically focusing on the role of suppression of mind wandering (i.e., task-irrelevant thinking in stereotype threat (ST and no threat (NT situations. Based on a process model of stereotype threat effects on performance, we hypothesized that women under stereotype threat spontaneously suppress mind wandering, and that this suppression impairs performance. An alternative regulation strategy that prevents suppression (i.e., reappraising task-irrelevant thoughts as normal was predicted to prevent stereotype threat effects on performance. We manipulated stereotype threat (ST vs. NT and cognitive regulation strategy (suppression, reappraisal, or no strategy and measured women's performance on a math and a concentration task (N = 113. We expected three groups to perform relatively more poorly: Those in ST with either no strategy or suppression and those in NT with a suppression strategy. We tested the performance of these groups against the remaining three groups hypothesized to perform relatively better: those in NT with no strategy or reappraisal and those in ST with reappraisal. The results showed the expected pattern for participants' math performance, but not for concentration achievement. This pattern suggests that ineffective self-regulation by suppressing mind wandering can at least partly explain stereotype threat effects on performance, whereas a reappraisal strategy can prevent this impairment. We discuss

  9. Superluminous supernovae: No threat from Eta Carinae

    CERN Document Server

    Thomas, Brian C; Fields, Brian D; Anthony-Twarog, Barbara J

    2007-01-01

    Recently Supernova 2006gy was noted as the most luminous ever recorded, with a total radiated energy of ~10^44 Joules. It was proposed that the progenitor may have been a massive evolved star similar to Eta Carinae, which resides in our own galaxy at a (poorly determined) distance of ~2.5 kpc. Eta Carinae appears ready to detonate, and in fact had an outburst in 1843. Although it is too distant to pose a serious threat as a normal supernova, and given its rotation axis is unlikely to produce a Gamma Ray Burst oriented toward the Earth, Eta Carinae is about 30,000 times nearer than 2006gy, and we re-evaluate it as a potential superluminous supernova. We find that given the large ratio of emission in the optical to the X-ray, atmospheric effects are negligible. Ionization of the atmosphere and concomitant ozone depletion are unlikely to be important. Any cosmic ray effects should be spread out over ~10^4 y, and similarly unlikely to produce any serious perturbation to the biosphere. We also discuss a new possib...

  10. Superluminous Supernovae: No Threat from Eta Carinae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Brian; Melott, A. L.; Fields, B. D.; Anthony-Twarog, B. J.

    2008-05-01

    Recently Supernova 2006gy was noted as the most luminous ever recorded, with a total radiated energy of 1044 Joules. It was proposed that the progenitor may have been a massive evolved star similar to η Carinae, which resides in our own galaxy at a distance of about 2.3 kpc. η Carinae appears ready to detonate. Although it is too distant to pose a serious threat as a normal supernova, and given its rotation axis is unlikely to produce a Gamma-Ray Burst oriented toward the Earth, η Carinae is about 30,000 times nearer than 2006gy, and we re-evaluate it as a potential superluminous supernova. We find that given the large ratio of emission in the optical to the X-ray, atmospheric effects are negligible. Ionization of the atmosphere and concomitant ozone depletion are unlikely to be important. Any cosmic ray effects should be spread out over 104 y, and similarly unlikely to produce any serious perturbation to the biosphere. We also discuss a new possible effect of supernovae, endocrine disruption induced by blue light near the peak of the optical spectrum. This is a possibility for nearby supernovae at distances too large to be considered "dangerous” for other reasons. However, due to reddening and extinction by the interstellar medium, η Carinae is unlikely to trigger such effects to any significant degree.

  11. Disentangling Islamophobia: The Differential Effects of Symbolic, Realistic, and Terroristic Threat Perceptions as Mediators Between Social Dominance Orientation and Islamophobia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatih Uenal

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is threefold. First, based on ongoing theoretical discussions on the dimensionality of Islamophobia, this study analyzes whether Islamophobia empirically constitutes a one-dimensional construct or rather a multidimensional construct consisting of anti-Muslim prejudice and anti-Islam sentiment. Second, the effects of symbolic, realistic, and terroristic (safety threats on Islamophobia were analyzed concurrently. Finally, within the framework of the revised Integrated Threat Theory (Stephan & Renfro, 2002, and in order to test the mediating effect of threats, SDO is tested as an antecedent of perceived threat and Islamophobia. Respondents from Berlin (N = 355 participated in an online survey. The results indicate that Islamophobia empirically constitutes a two-dimensional phenomenon, consisting of anti-Muslim and anti-Islam sentiment. Whereas symbolic threat is related to both types of Islamophobia, realistic threat is associated only with anti-Muslim prejudice, and terroristic threat is associated only with anti-Islam sentiment. Finally, the results indicate that the relationship between SDO and both dimensions of Islamophobia is mediated by threats. Symbolic threats mediate the relationships between SDO and both dimensions of Islamophobia. Realistic threats mediate the relationship between SDO and anti-Muslim prejudice and terroristic threats between SDO and anti-Islam sentiment.

  12. Experimental evaluation of multiprocessor cache-based error recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssens, Bob; Fuchs, W. K.

    1991-01-01

    Several variations of cache-based checkpointing for rollback error recovery in shared-memory multiprocessors have been recently developed. By modifying the cache replacement policy, these techniques use the inherent redundancy in the memory hierarchy to periodically checkpoint the computation state. Three schemes, different in the manner in which they avoid rollback propagation, are evaluated. By simulation with address traces from parallel applications running on an Encore Multimax shared-memory multiprocessor, the performance effect of integrating the recovery schemes in the cache coherence protocol are evaluated. The results indicate that the cache-based schemes can provide checkpointing capability with low performance overhead but uncontrollable high variability in the checkpoint interval.

  13. Testbed-based Performance Evaluation of Attack Resilient Control for AGC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ashok, Aditya; Sridhar, Siddharth; McKinnon, Archibald D.; Wang, Pengyuan Wang; Govindarasu, Manimaran

    2016-09-22

    The modern electric power grid is a complex cyber-physical system whose reliable operation is enabled by a wide-area monitoring and control infrastructure. This infrastructure, supported by an extensive communication backbone, enables several control applications functioning at multiple time scales to ensure the grid is maintained within stable operating limits. Recent events have shown that vulnerabilities in this infrastructure may be exploited to manipulate the data being exchanged. Such a scenario could cause the associated control application to mis-operate, potentially causing system-wide instabilities. There is a growing emphasis on looking beyond traditional cybersecurity solutions to mitigate such threats. In this paper we perform a testbed-based validation of one such solution - Attack Resilient Control (ARC) - on Iowa State University's \\textit{PowerCyber} testbed. ARC is a cyber-physical security solution that combines domain-specific anomaly detection and model-based mitigation to detect stealthy attacks on Automatic Generation Control (AGC). In this paper, we first describe the implementation architecture of the experiment on the testbed. Next, we demonstrate the capability of stealthy attack templates to cause forced under-frequency load shedding in a 3-area test system. We then validate the performance of ARC by measuring its ability to detect and mitigate these attacks. Our results reveal that ARC is efficient in detecting stealthy attacks and enables AGC to maintain system operating frequency close to its nominal value during an attack. Our studies also highlight the importance of testbed-based experimentation for evaluating the performance of cyber-physical security and control applications.

  14. Threat driven modeling framework using petri nets for e-learning system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khamparia, Aditya; Pandey, Babita

    2016-01-01

    Vulnerabilities at various levels are main cause of security risks in e-learning system. This paper presents a modified threat driven modeling framework, to identify the threats after risk assessment which requires mitigation and how to mitigate those threats. To model those threat mitigations aspects oriented stochastic petri nets are used. This paper included security metrics based on vulnerabilities present in e-learning system. The Common Vulnerability Scoring System designed to provide a normalized method for rating vulnerabilities which will be used as basis in metric definitions and calculations. A case study has been also proposed which shows the need and feasibility of using aspect oriented stochastic petri net models for threat modeling which improves reliability, consistency and robustness of the e-learning system.

  15. A Quantitative Threats Analysis for the Florida Manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Michael C.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.

    2007-01-01

    The Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) is an endangered marine mammal endemic to the southeastern United States. The primary threats to manatee populations are collisions with watercraft and the potential loss of warm-water refuges. For the purposes of listing, recovery, and regulation under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), an understanding of the relative effects of the principal threats is needed. This work is a quantitative approach to threats analysis, grounded in the assumption that an appropriate measure of status under the ESA is based on the risk of extinction, as quantified by the probability of quasi-extinction. This is related to the qualitative threats analyses that are more common under the ESA, but provides an additional level of rigor, objectivity, and integration. In this approach, our philosophy is that analysis of the five threat factors described in Section 4(a)(1) of the ESA can be undertaken within an integrated quantitative framework. The basis of this threats analysis is a comparative population viability analysis. This involves forecasting the Florida manatee population under different scenarios regarding the presence of threats, while accounting for process variation (environmental, demographic, and catastrophic stochasticity) as well as parametric and structural uncertainty. We used the manatee core biological model (CBM) for this viability analysis, and considered the role of five threats: watercraft-related mortality, loss of warm-water habitat in winter, mortality in water-control structures, entanglement, and red tide. All scenarios were run with an underlying parallel structure that allowed a more powerful estimation of the effects of the various threats. The results reflect our understanding of manatee ecology (as captured in the structure of the CBM), our estimates of manatee demography (as described by the parameters in the model), and our characterization of the mechanisms by which the threats act on manatees. As an

  16. Cyber threats in social networking websites

    CERN Document Server

    Gharibi, Wajeb

    2012-01-01

    A social network is a social structure made up of individuals or organizations called nodes, which are connected by one or more specific types of interdependency, such as friendship, common interest, and exchange of finance, relationships of beliefs, knowledge or prestige. A cyber threat can be both unintentional and intentional, targeted or non targeted, and it can come from a variety of sources, including foreign nations engaged in espionage and information warfare, criminals, hackers, virus writers, disgruntled employees and contractors working within an organization. Social networking sites are not only to communicate or interact with other people globally, but also one effective way for business promotion. In this paper, we investigate and study the cyber threats in social networking websites. We go through the amassing history of online social websites, classify their types and also discuss the cyber threats, suggest the anti-threats strategies and visualize the future trends of such hoppy popular websi...

  17. Advanced Insider Threat Mitigation Workshop Instructional Materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gibbs, Philip [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Larsen, Robert [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); O' Brien, Mike [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Edmunds, Tom [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2009-02-01

    Insiders represent a formidable threat to nuclear facilities. This set of workshop materials covers methodologies to analyze and approaches to mitigate the threat of an insider attempting abrupt and protracted theft of nuclear materials. This particular set of materials is an update of a January 2008 version to add increased emphasis on Material Control and Accounting and its role with respect to protracted insider nuclear material theft scenarios. This report is a compilation of workshop materials consisting of lectures on technical and administrative measures used in Physical Protection (PP) and Material Control and Accounting (MC&A) and methods for analyzing their effectiveness against a postulated insider threat. The postulated threat includes both abrupt and protracted theft scenarios. Presentation is envisioned to be through classroom instruction and discussion. Several practical and group exercises are included for demonstration and application of the analysis approach contained in the lecture/discussion sessions as applied to a hypothetical nuclear facility.

  18. Childhood maltreatment and threats with weapons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casiano, Hygiea; Mota, Natalie; Afifi, Tracie O; Enns, Murray W; Sareen, Jitender

    2009-11-01

    The relationship between childhood maltreatment and future threats with weapons is unknown. We examined data from the nationally representative National Comorbidity Survey Replication (n = 5692) and conducted multiple logistic regression analyses to determine the association between childhood maltreatment and lifetime behavior of threatening others with a gun or other weapon. After adjusting for sociodemographic variables, physical abuse, sexual abuse, and witnessing domestic violence were significantly associated with threats made with a gun (adjusted odds ratios [AOR] ranging between 3.38 and 4.07) and other weapons (AOR ranging between 2.16 and 2.83). The greater the number of types of maltreatment experienced, the stronger the association with lifetime threats made to others with guns and any weapons. Over 94% of respondents who experienced maltreatment and made threats reported that the maltreatment occurred prior to threatening others with weapons. Prevention efforts that reduce exposure to maltreatment may reduce violent behavior in later life.

  19. Need threat can motivate performance after ostracism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, Jeremy P; Harkins, Stephen G; Williams, Kipling D

    2010-05-01

    Ostracism threatens fundamental needs of belonging, self-esteem, control, and meaningful existence, which should motivate participants to respond to this threat. However, research has yet to examine the role of need threat in producing motivation after ostracism. In the current work, participants completed a "cognitive ability" (antisaccade) task following Cyberball-induced ostracism or inclusion. In two experiments, it was found that when ostracized, participants do not see antisaccade performance as a means of responding to the concerns produced by need threat; they respond only to the social threat, leading to worse performance than included participants (Experiments 1 and 2). However, when participants see an avenue of response (the Cyberball players can compare antisaccade performances), ostracized participants outperform included participants (Experiment 2). Moreover, this effect was mediated by the need for belonging, suggesting that ostracized participants were motivated to elevate their inclusionary status by demonstrating their worth on the cognitive ability task.

  20. Cyber Threats In Social Networking Websites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wajeb Ghari

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available A social network is a social structure made up of individuals or organizations called nodes, which areconnected by one or more specific types of interdependency, such as friendship, common interest, and exchange of finance, relationships of beliefs, knowledge or prestige. A cyber threat can be both unintentional and intentional, targeted or non targeted, and it can come from a variety of sources, including foreign nations engaged in espionage and information warfare, criminals, hackers, virus writers, disgruntled employees and contractors working within an organization. Social networking sitesare not only to communicate or interact with other people globally, but also one effective way for business promotion. In this paper, we investigate and study the cyber threats in social networking websites. We go through the amassing history of online social websites, classify their types and also discuss the cyber threats, suggest the anti-threats strategies and visualize the future trends of such hoppy popular websites.

  1. Evaluating a Focus-Based Approach to Anaphora Resolution

    CERN Document Server

    Azzam, S; Gaizauskas, R J; Azzam, Saliha; Humphreys, Kevin; Gaizauskas, Robert

    1998-01-01

    We present an approach to anaphora resolution based on a focusing algorithm, and implemented within an existing MUC (Message Understanding Conference) Information Extraction system, allowing quantitative evaluation against a substantial corpus of annotated real-world texts. Extensions to the basic focusing mechanism can be easily tested, resulting in refinements to the mechanism and resolution rules. Results are compared with the results of a simpler heuristic-based approach.

  2. Advanced insider threat mitigation workshop instructional materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gibbs, Philip [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Larsen, Robert [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); O Brien, Mike [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Edmunds, Tom [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2008-11-01

    Insiders represent a formidable threat to nuclear facilities. This set of workshop materials covers methodologies to analyze and approaches to mitigate the threat of an insider attempting abrupt and protracted theft of nuclear materials. This particular set of materials is a n update of a January 2008 version to add increased emphasis on Material Control and Accounting and its role with respect to protracted insider nuclear material theft scenarios.

  3. Developing a Kano-Based Evaluation Model for Innovation Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang-Tzuoh Wu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This research focuses on developing a psychology-based evaluation procedure for innovative design. The divergent thinking part of the main innovative design procedure which discussed in this paper is the extensive QFD developed by the author (Wu. The major performance of QFD is to identify the customers’ requirements and their priorities. Then, the proposed extensive QFD helps transform the high priority requirements into appropriate technical characteristics. According to the priorities of product characteristics, the prior engineering parameters will be identified to be the key performances to redesign. For identifying the requirements and achieving the attractive design, we introduce the Kano model to construct the evaluation model. The proposed Kano-based evaluation procedure is mainly used in two stages of the innovative design. First, the evaluation process was used in QFD stage to help identify attractive customers’ requirements, and the other was used in the extension stage to help assess concepts. The flowchart of proposed innovative design procedure with psychology-based evaluation has also been developed. A case study, exercise equipment design, is adopted to explain and verify feasibility of the proposed approach.

  4. The concept of ego threat in social and personality psychology: is ego threat a viable scientific construct?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leary, Mark R; Terry, Meredith L; Batts Allen, Ashley; Tate, Eleanor B

    2009-08-01

    Although widely invoked as an explanation for psychological phenomena, ego threat has been conceptualized and induced in a variety of ways. Most contemporary research conceptualizes ego threat as a threat to a person's self-image or self-esteem, but experimental operationalizations of ego threat usually confound threats to self-esteem with threats to public image or decreased control over negative events, leading to an inability to distinguish the effects of threats to people's personal egos from threats to public image or threats to feelings of control. This article reviews research on ego threat, discusses experimental manipulations that confound ego threat with other processes, and makes recommendations regarding the use of ego threat as a construct in personality and social psychology.

  5. Nuclear Threat Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuliasha, Michael

    2012-03-01

    The National Security Strategy states that the greatest threat to the American people is ``the pursuit of nuclear weapons by violent extremists and their proliferation to additional states.'' The Global Nuclear Detection Architecture (GNDA) addresses a key portion of that threat by focusing on detecting nuclear and radiological materials that are out of regulatory control within permissive operating environments. However, the force protection requirements of the Department of Defense (DoD) range across a wider mission space from permissive environments, where nuclear and radiological materials can be monitored while under regulatory control, to hostile environments where nuclear and radiological materials exist in defiance of international regulations and agreements. This wider range of operating environments and the inherent physics limitations on the range of radiation detection pose great challenges to radiation detection-focused approaches to nuclear threat detection. Consequently, DoD is in the process of defining an intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance approach to countering nuclear threats that considers the observable signatures of all elements that comprise a potential threat; information, funds, people, material, equipment, and infrastructure. This strategy represents a shift from radiation detection as the primary sensing modality to radiation detection as one of many sensing modalities, including the human dimension, with a heavy emphasis on data fusion. This presentation will describe the attributes of a layered sensing approach to nuclear threat detection, illustrate the approach with examples, define potential building blocks, and discuss technical challenges.

  6. Port performance evaluation tool based on microsimulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsavalista Burhani Jzolanda

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available As port performance is becoming correlative to national competitiveness, the issue of port performance evaluation has significantly raised. Port performances can simply be indicated by port service levels to the ship (e.g., throughput, waiting for berthing etc., as well as the utilization level of equipment and facilities within a certain period. The performances evaluation then can be used as a tool to develop related policies for improving the port’s performance to be more effective and efficient. However, the evaluation is frequently conducted based on deterministic approach, which hardly captures the nature variations of port parameters. Therefore, this paper presents a stochastic microsimulation model for investigating the impacts of port parameter variations to the port performances. The variations are derived from actual data in order to provide more realistic results. The model is further developed using MATLAB and Simulink based on the queuing theory.

  7. Evaluation of Sift and Surf for Vision Based Localization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Xiaozhi; Soheilian, Bahman; Habets, Emmanuel; Paparoditis, Nicolas

    2016-06-01

    Vision based localization is widely investigated for the autonomous navigation and robotics. One of the basic steps of vision based localization is the extraction of interest points in images that are captured by the embedded camera. In this paper, SIFT and SURF extractors were chosen to evaluate their performance in localization. Four street view image sequences captured by a mobile mapping system, were used for the evaluation and both SIFT and SURF were tested on different image scales. Besides, the impact of the interest point distribution was also studied. We evaluated the performances from for aspects: repeatability, precision, accuracy and runtime. The local bundle adjustment method was applied to refine the pose parameters and the 3D coordinates of tie points. According to the results of our experiments, SIFT was more reliable than SURF. Apart from this, both the accuracy and the efficiency of localization can be improved if the distribution of feature points are well constrained for SIFT.

  8. Marking Strategies in Metacognition-Evaluated Computer-Based Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Li-Ju; Ho, Rong-Guey; Yen, Yung-Chin

    2010-01-01

    This study aimed to explore the effects of marking and metacognition-evaluated feedback (MEF) in computer-based testing (CBT) on student performance and review behavior. Marking is a strategy, in which students place a question mark next to a test item to indicate an uncertain answer. The MEF provided students with feedback on test results…

  9. Inspection Based Evaluation of a Danish Road Bridge

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    In this paper it is shown how an inspection-based evaluation of a Danish road bridge may be performed using the BRIDGE1 and BRIDGE2 bridge management systems produced within the EC-supported research programme "Assessment of Performance and Optimal Strategies for Inspection and Maintenance...

  10. A Discrepancy-Based Methodology for Nuclear Training Program Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantor, Jeffrey A.

    1991-01-01

    A three-phase comprehensive process for commercial nuclear power training program evaluation is presented. The discrepancy-based methodology was developed after the Three Mile Island nuclear reactor accident. It facilitates analysis of program components to identify discrepancies among program specifications, actual outcomes, and industry…

  11. Evaluation of a Spiritually Based Child Maltreatment Prevention Training Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Louisa K.; Rigazio-DiGilio, Sandra A.

    2013-01-01

    The authors empirically evaluated a spiritually based 1-day child maltreatment training program. Pretest, posttest, and follow-up results indicated that participants' recognition of hypothetical maltreatment did not increase after training. Furthermore, although participants decreased their use of items known to dissuade decisions to report, they…

  12. A dynamic performance evaluation method based on SD-BSC

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TENG Chun-xian; PAN Xiao-dong; HU Xian-wu

    2007-01-01

    Taking into consideration the disadvantage of Balanced Scorecard (BSC) not being able to reflect time delay, nonlinear problems of causal relationship and being lack of effective simulation, we combined it with the characteristics of the System Dynamics (SD). Basing on the background of manufacturing enterprises,through SD integrating with the BSC we established a new performance evaluation method-SD-BSC method to overcome the disadvantage of BSC. A performance evaluation model of SD-BSC is provided and the simulation results are analyzed which show different production policies will lead to different customer's satisfaction degrees. The SD-BSC dynamic performance evaluation method can reflect dynamic, complex causal feedback relationship and time delay, so it compensates for the disadvantage of traditional financial performance evaluation method, and at the same time makes the BSC perfect.

  13. Planar straightness error evaluation based on particle swarm optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Jian; Zheng, Huawen; Cao, Yanlong; Yang, Jiangxin

    2006-11-01

    The straightness error generally refers to the deviation between an actual line and an ideal line. According to the characteristics of planar straightness error evaluation, a novel method to evaluate planar straightness errors based on the particle swarm optimization (PSO) is proposed. The planar straightness error evaluation problem is formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem. According to minimum zone condition the mathematical model of planar straightness together with the optimal objective function and fitness function is developed. Compared with the genetic algorithm (GA), the PSO algorithm has some advantages. It is not only implemented without crossover and mutation but also has fast congruence speed. Moreover fewer parameters are needed to set up. The results show that the PSO method is very suitable for nonlinear optimization problems and provides a promising new method for straightness error evaluation. It can be applied to deal with the measured data of planar straightness obtained by the three-coordinates measuring machines.

  14. Route Planning Based on Particle Swarm Optimization with Threat Heuristic%采用威胁启发粒子群算法的无人机航路规划

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李猛; 王道波; 柏婷婷; 盛守照

    2011-01-01

    针对复杂地形和威胁环境下的无人机航路规划问题,对粒子群算法进行了改进,提出了融入威胁启发机制的改进粒子群算法.充分利用无人机在任务区域中已知的威胁信息,将其作为威胁启发项,构成粒子群速度更新公式的一部分,有效丰富粒子群算法的搜索行为,增强粒子在搜索过程中的针对性和指导性.使用最小威胁曲面方法,降低粒子编码的维数,并采用航路在线再规划的方法解决无人机飞行过程可能遇到的突发威胁.仿真试验表明,所提方法能够有效地规划出无人机的最优航路,提高规划过程的时效性,并且满足航路再规划的实时性要求.%In order to solve the problem of UAV's route planning under the environment with complex terrain and threats, an improved Particle Swarm Optimization ( PSO) was proposed, in which the threat heuristic mechanism was integrated. The new algorithm made full use of the known threat information in mission area and took it as the threat heuristic item for forming the particles' velocity updating formula. The threat heuristic information could enhance the guiding movement of particles in mission area, enrich search behavior of PSO and improve the planning efficiency. Surface of minimum risk was used for reducing the dimension of particles, and online route planning was adopted to deal with the unexpected threats. The simulation results showed that the proposed method can effectively obtain the optimum route for the UAV with less planning time than standard PSO, and satisfy the real-time requirement of online route replanning.

  15. Selection Strategy of Information System Security Technologies Based on Threat%基于威胁的信息系统安全技术选择策略研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    方玲; 仲伟俊; 梅姝娥

    2014-01-01

    The game theory was employed to study the selection of security technologies and the optimization of resource allo-cation at the basis of the threat types to organization information system.The factors like the definite types of threats, the charac-teristics of information system security technologies, the cost and efficiency of them and so on were all considered together.And some conclusions were resulted.First, the organizations should choose security technologies with the ability to deal with or miti-gate most of the threats they would encounter probably during the management of information system security, i.e.to select secur-ity technologies at the basis of threats.Second, in order to optimize the resources allocation, the organizations could determine the corresponding security technology choosing probability according to the expected loss of every kind of threat.Compare to the researches considering that one information system security technology has only one general detection rate and false detection rate, the model has an innovation that one security technology has different detection rates and false detection rates to different threats, which is more practical.%利用博弈论研究了基于信息系统安全威胁类型的安全技术选择与资源优化配置问题,同时考虑了具体威胁类型、信息系统安全技术特征、成本与组合效率等因素,指出了组织在信息系统安全管理时所选择的安全技术首先应当能够处理或弱化其所面临的大部分威胁,即以威胁为安全技术选择的基础,并且组织为了实现对有限资源的优化配置,应根据各种威胁导致的期望损失来确定相应的安全技术选择概率。模型将安全技术对不同威胁的检测率与误检率加以区分,较一种安全技术对所有威胁只有一个笼统的检测率和误检率更具实际意义。

  16. Evaluating a Pivot-Based Approach for Bilingual Lexicon Extraction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Hoon Kim

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A pivot-based approach for bilingual lexicon extraction is based on the similarity of context vectors represented by words in a pivot language like English. In this paper, in order to show validity and usability of the pivot-based approach, we evaluate the approach in company with two different methods for estimating context vectors: one estimates them from two parallel corpora based on word association between source words (resp., target words and pivot words and the other estimates them from two parallel corpora based on word alignment tools for statistical machine translation. Empirical results on two language pairs (e.g., Korean-Spanish and Korean-French have shown that the pivot-based approach is very promising for resource-poor languages and this approach observes its validity and usability. Furthermore, for words with low frequency, our method is also well performed.

  17. Iterative evaluation of a web-based health information resource.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenfeld, Lindsay; Shepherd, Amy; Agunwamba, Amenah A; McCray, Alexa T

    2013-08-01

    This article presents the research process and methods used to evaluate and improve a web-based health information resource, called "Community Connect to Research," intended for the public. The research process was iterative and involved collaboration with many partners. Two formal evaluations were conducted in 2009 and 2010 using key informant interviews, usability interviews, focus groups, an online survey, and readability and suitability assessment tools. These methods provided users' perspectives on the overall design, content, and literacy demands of the website as well as valuable feedback on their interaction with the website. The authors subsequently redesigned Community Connect to Research, making significant improvements on the basis of what they learned from the evaluation. The second evaluation revealed that the redesign addressed many issues found in the first evaluation and identified additional areas of possible improvement. Overall, both evaluations suggested that participants believed that the website was useful and valuable, indicating that Community Connect to Research is a health information resource that provides patients and families with accessible, relevant, and high-quality information. Regular formal evaluation is an essential tool for effective ongoing enhancement of health information resources meant for the public.

  18. The Climate Change Education Evidence Base: Lessons Learned from NOAA's Monitoring and Evaluation Framework Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baek, J.

    2012-12-01

    effort has provided some shared understanding and general guidance, there is still a lack of guidance to make decisions at any level of the community. A recent memorandum from the Office of Management and Budget provides more specific guidance around the generation and utilization of evidence. For example, the amount of funding awarded through grants should be weighted by the level of the evidence supporting a proposed project. As the field of climate change education establishes an evidence base, study designs should address a greater number of internal validity threats through comparison groups and reliable common measures. In addition, OMB invites agencies to develop systematic measurement of costs and costs per outcome. A growing evidence base, one that includes data that includes costs and even monetizes benefits, can inform decisions based on the strongest returns on investments within a portfolio. This paper will provide examples from NOAA's Monitoring and Evaluation Framework Implementation project that illustrate how NOAA is facing these challenges. This is intended to inform climate change educators, evaluators, and researchers in ways to integrate evaluation into the management of their programs while providing insight across the portfolio.

  19. 基于TOPSIS方法的网络舆情威胁评估模型%Threat Evaluation Model of Internet Public Opinion Based on TOPSIS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈越; 李超零; 于洋; 黄惠新

    2012-01-01

    为实现网络舆情事件的威胁度评估与排序,修改和完善了一个舆情威胁评估指标体系,引入区间数完成了定性指标的定量化,并采用AHP法确定了各级指标的权重.在此基础上,建立了基于TOPSIS法的舆情威胁评估和排序模型,通过示例建模验证了模型的有效性,为网络舆情监控和预警提供了一种有效的方法.

  20. Performance evaluation of sensor allocation algorithm based on covariance control

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    The covariance control capability of sensor allocation algorithms based on covariance control strategy is an important index to evaluate the performance of these algorithms. Owing to lack of standard performance metric indices to evaluate covariance control capability, sensor allocation ratio, etc, there are no guides to follow in the design procedure of sensor allocation algorithm in practical applications. To meet these demands, three quantified performance metric indices are presented, which are average covariance misadjustment quantity (ACMQ), average sensor allocation ratio (ASAR) and matrix metric influence factor (MMIF), where ACMQ, ASAR and MMIF quantify the covariance control capability, the usage of sensor resources and the robustness of sensor allocation algorithm, respectively. Meanwhile, a covariance adaptive sensor allocation algorithm based on a new objective function is proposed to improve the covariance control capability of the algorithm based on information gain. The experiment results show that the proposed algorithm have the advantage over the preceding sensor allocation algorithm in covariance control capability and robustness.

  1. EVALUATING HUMAN CAPITAL IN A KNOWLEDGE – BASED APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emanoil MUSCALU

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The widespread enthusiasm for a knowledge-based approach to understanding the nature of a business and the possible basis for sustained competitive advantage have renewed interest in human capital evaluation or measurement. While many attempts have been made to develop methods for measuring intellectual capital, none have been widely adopted in the business world. In the knowledge-based organizations, and generally, in the information society, human capital is recognized as the fundamental factor of overall progress, and experts agree that long-term investment in human capital has strong drive-propagation effects at the individual, organizational, national and global level. In this paper, we consider that a knowledge-based approach can offer new possibilities and answers to illustrate the importance of evaluation the human capital and knowledge assets by consistently generating added value in the business world.

  2. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...... the estimates for confounding from other risk factors. We describe some potential unintentional effects when using adjusted risk estimates in evaluating the efficacy and sensitivity of risk-based surveillance systems (SSe). In two examples, we quantify and compare the efficacy and SSe using adjusted and crude...

  3. Evaluation methodology for query-based scene understanding systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huster, Todd P.; Ross, Timothy D.; Culbertson, Jared L.

    2015-05-01

    In this paper, we are proposing a method for the principled evaluation of scene understanding systems in a query-based framework. We can think of a query-based scene understanding system as a generalization of typical sensor exploitation systems where instead of performing a narrowly defined task (e.g., detect, track, classify, etc.), the system can perform general user-defined tasks specified in a query language. Examples of this type of system have been developed as part of DARPA's Mathematics of Sensing, Exploitation, and Execution (MSEE) program. There is a body of literature on the evaluation of typical sensor exploitation systems, but the open-ended nature of the query interface introduces new aspects to the evaluation problem that have not been widely considered before. In this paper, we state the evaluation problem and propose an approach to efficiently learn about the quality of the system under test. We consider the objective of the evaluation to be to build a performance model of the system under test, and we rely on the principles of Bayesian experiment design to help construct and select optimal queries for learning about the parameters of that model.

  4. Evaluating Web-Based Learning and Instruction (WBLI): A Case Study and Framework for Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalski, Greg V.

    The purpose of this paper is to suggest an alternative approach to perform relevant and useful evaluations of Web-based learning and instruction (WBLI) that will accommodate performance and keep pace with the growing capabilities of the Internet. Discussion includes the advantages of WBLI, multimedia and streaming use in WBLI, building the…

  5. An evaluation of the hemiplegic subject based on the Bobath approach. Part II: The evaluation protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corriveau, H; Guarna, F; Dutil, E; Riley, E; Arsenault, A B; Drouin, G

    1988-01-01

    A protocol of evaluation of the hemiplegic patient based on the Bobath approach to treatment is presented. Six parameters are evaluated: sensorium, muscle tone, reflex activity, active movement, postural reactions and pain. The first and last of these are included because of their possible effects on the motor recovery process of the hemiplegic patient. The other four are directly borrowed from the Bobath modality of treatment. For each of these parameters, the procedures are given for its evaluation along with its respective rating scales. These scales are of an ordinal nature ranging from 0 to 3. It is suggested that this new evaluation protocol is fully compatible with the therapeutic modality developed by Bobath and as well is adequate to quantify patient progress in the principle aspects treated by this well used rehabilitation approach.

  6. AHP-FCE Based Physical Exercise Risk Evaluation Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Yi-zhi; DING Yong-sheng; XU Hong-an

    2007-01-01

    Exercise is a highly proven and beneficial health promotion modality. But it is very difficult to determine whether the person during exercise is safe. A unique and comprehensive approach is proposed to perform physical exercise risk evaluation (PERE), in which personalized factors are determined basing on grey correlation analysis, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method is used to structure the large numbers of risk factors, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) is applied to fuzzify the factors and compute the exercise risk level. Finally, an actual calculation example is used to verify the feasibility of the method.

  7. Research on Fault Evaluation of Armament Equipment Based on ADAMS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The levels of simulation are introduced, and the importance of virtual prototyping of armament equipment is discussed and steps of virtual prototyping are outlined. The faults that affect firing performance are discussea, ADAMS is first to be introduced to armament equipment,and a virtual prototyping model of artillery is established with the help of Fortran language based on analysis of topology of artillery and forces applied on it. The plan of fault evaluation is brought forward, the modules are analyzed, and the concept of fault evaluation function is introduced Finally, the perspective of virtual technology is presented.

  8. Evaluation Method of Web Site Based on Web Structure Mining

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LiJun-e; ZhouDong-ru

    2003-01-01

    The structure of Web site became more complex than before. During the design period of a Web site, the lack of model and method results in improper Web structure,which depend on the designer's experience. From the point of view of software engineering, every period in the software life must be evaluated before starting the next period's work. It is very important and essential to search relevant methods for evaluating Web structure before the site is completed. In this work, after studying the related work about the Web structure mining and analyzing the major structure mining methods (Page-rank and Hub/Authority), a method based on the Page-rank for Web structure evaluation in design stage is proposed. A Web structure modeling language WSML is designed, and the implement strategies for evaluating system of the Web site structure are given out. Web structure mining has being used mainly in search engines before. It is the first time to employ the Web structure mining technology to evaluate a Web structure in the design period of a Web site. It contributes to the formalization of the design documents for Web site and the improving of software engineering for large scale Web site, and the evaluating system is a practical tool for Web site construction.

  9. Building the Enterprise Technology Threat Warning Model Based on the Perspective of the Patent Portfolio Analysis%企业技术威胁预警模型构建*--基于专利组合分析的视角

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张世玉; 王伟; 陶成琳; 刘思蓓

    2016-01-01

    Purpose/Significance] The purpose of this research is to improve the shortcomings of the traditional technology threat warning model, such as being too macroscopic and unable to dynamically monitor the technology threats to an enterprise. [ Method/Process] Based on the perspective of the patent portfolio analysis, this study integrates the technology gap, technology differences, technology maturity, and other factors which influence the enterprise technology threats into the enterprise technology threat warning model, and analyzes the warning principle involved. [ Results/Conclusion] The enterprise technology threat warning model proposed in this research can guide an enterprise to carry out a multi-dimensional dynamic monitoring and management of the technology threats in the various technical fields in which the enterprise is engaged.%[目的/意义]解决传统技术威胁预警模型对企业技术威胁的评估过于宏观且无法进行动态监测的不足,使企业决策者能够更加科学有效地进行技术威胁的识别和预警。[方法/过程]采用专利组合分析的方法,将影响企业技术威胁的技术差距、技术差异、技术成熟度、技术研发重点等因素融入企业技术威胁预警模型中,构建基于专利组合分析视角的企业技术威胁预警模型,并分析其预警原理。[结果/结论]研究构建的企业技术威胁预警模型可以指导企业以专利组合的方式从多个维度对企业各项技术领域的技术威胁进行动态监测与管理。

  10. On the correlation among threats, errors, and undesired states in air traffic control based on a Bayesian network model%民航空管威胁、差错与意外状态相关性的贝叶斯网络方法研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    曹海峰; 白福利; 李彤

    2013-01-01

    This paper is aimed to introduce a Bayesian network model developed by the author to investigate the correlation among the threats, errors, and undesired states in the air traffic control. In this model, we have taken the Bayesian Network (BN) as the theoretical foundation for analyzing the quantitative method on the database of Threat and Error Management (TEM) . For our research purpose, we have adopted six types of safety states most frequently to be dealt with (that is, the interior procedure threat, the adjacent units threat, the air traffic threat, equipment operating error, procedure error, and communication error) to establish our BN network model. While discussing the relations among the undesired states in the air and all threats and errors concerned, we have established a risk assessment model with reference to the Bayesian Network. All this has enabled the given model we have developed to provide the predictive probability in advance as for the incoming threats and errors so as to find necessary means to work out the corresponding subsequent measures to deal with the undesired states and all other threats and errors. Thus, we have thoroughly founded our research results on a database of TEM and the proper application of Bayesian network. Thus, the above research results of ours make us draw the following conclusions: (1) There actually exist significant gaps among the results based on the study of the resultant probability and the anticipating probability. While the resultant probability mainly indicates the probability of threats and errors likely to come about under the premise of accident status, it allows the flight control workers to use all the information of forecasting as the main indicators to determine the likely events due to the threat and error factors under control. (2) If any undesired states in the air occur, the posterior probability of the interior progress threats can be made as high as to 77 % , which can be thought of as the most

  11. Stereotype threat and lift effects in motor task performance: the mediating role of somatic and cognitive anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurin, Raphael

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this investigation was to replicate the stereotype threat and lift effects in a motor task in a neutral sex-typed activity, using somatic and cognitive anxiety as key mediators of these phenomena. It was hypothesized that an ingroup/outgroup social categorization based on gender would have distinctive effects for female and male participants. A total of 161 French physical education students were randomly assigned to three threat conditions--no threat, female threat, and male threat--thus leading to a 3 x 2 (threat by gender) design. The analyses revealed a stereotype lift effect on the performances for both male and female participants, as well as a stereotype threat effect only for female participants. They also indicated that somatic anxiety had a mediating effect on the performance of female participants targeted by a negative stereotype, but that it had a facilitating effect on their performance. The stereotype threat and lift effects on motor tasks were replicated in a neutral sex-typed activity and somatic anxiety seems to have a facilitating mediating effect of the relationships between the gender-conditions (control or female threat) interaction and free-throw performance. The model used to distinguish somatic and cognitive anxiety appeared to be a relevant means of explaining the stereotype threat and lift mechanisms.

  12. Detecting Threat E-mails using Bayesian Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Banday, M Tariq; Jan, Tariq R; Shah, Nisar A

    2011-01-01

    Fraud and terrorism have a close connect in terms of the processes that enables and promote them. In the era of Internet, its various services that include Web, e-mail, social networks, blogs, instant messaging, chats, etc. are used in terrorism not only for communication but also for i) creation of ideology, ii) resource gathering, iii) recruitment, indoctrination and training, iv) creation of terror network, and v) information gathering. A major challenge for law enforcement and intelligence agencies is efficient and accurate gathering of relevant and growing volume of crime data. This paper reports on use of established Na\\"ive Bayesian filter for classification of threat e-mails. Efficiency in filtering threat e-mail by use of three different Na\\"ive Bayesian filter approaches i.e. single keywords, weighted multiple keywords and weighted multiple keywords with keyword context matching are evaluated on a threat e-mail corpus created by extracting data from sources that are very close to terrorism.

  13. Tools for evaluating team performance in simulation-based training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosen, Michael A; Weaver, Sallie J; Lazzara, Elizabeth H; Salas, Eduardo; Wu, Teresa; Silvestri, Salvatore; Schiebel, Nicola; Almeida, Sandra; King, Heidi B

    2010-10-01

    Teamwork training constitutes one of the core approaches for moving healthcare systems toward increased levels of quality and safety, and simulation provides a powerful method of delivering this training, especially for face-paced and dynamic specialty areas such as Emergency Medicine. Team performance measurement and evaluation plays an integral role in ensuring that simulation-based training for teams (SBTT) is systematic and effective. However, this component of SBTT systems is overlooked frequently. This article addresses this gap by providing a review and practical introduction to the process of developing and implementing evaluation systems in SBTT. First, an overview of team performance evaluation is provided. Second, best practices for measuring team performance in simulation are reviewed. Third, some of the prominent measurement tools in the literature are summarized and discussed relative to the best practices. Subsequently, implications of the review are discussed for the practice of training teamwork in Emergency Medicine.

  14. Testability integrated evaluation method based on testability virtual test data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Guanjun; Zhao Chenxu; Qiu Jing; Zhang Yong

    2014-01-01

    Testability virtual test is a new test method for testability verification, which has the advantages such as low cost, few restrictions and large sample of test data. It can be used to make up the deficiency of testability physical test. In order to take the advantage of testability virtual test data effectively and to improve the accuracy of testability evaluation, a testability integrated eval-uation method is proposed in this paper based on testability virtual test data. Considering the char-acteristic of testability virtual test data, the credibility analysis method for testability virtual test data is studied firstly. Then the integrated calculation method is proposed fusing the testability vir-tual and physical test data. Finally, certain helicopter heading and attitude system is presented to demonstrate the proposed method. The results show that the testability integrated evaluation method is feasible and effective.

  15. Allocation of New Construction Land Based on Land Competitiveness Evaluation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Connotation of land competitiveness is expatiated from both the narrow sense and broad sense. Evaluation index system of land competitiveness is established according to the 2008 China Statistical Yearbook and 2008 China Land Resources Statistical Yearbook. Efficiency Coefficient Method and Principal Component Analysis Method are used to evaluate the land competitiveness of 31 provincial units in China. Result shows that in the year 2007, land competitiveness gradually decreases from southeast to northwest. The land competitiveness and GDP per unit land have significant negative correlation. The rank of approved new construction land has low positive correlation with the rank of land competitiveness in China. This indicates that there is little correlation between the allocation of regional new construction land and the land use efficiency. Therefore, it is suggested that regional allocation of new construction land should be treated differently based on the evaluation result of land competitiveness.

  16. Surveillance of the bioterrorist threat: a primary care response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, D M; Barley, M A; Chapman, R S

    2004-03-01

    Threats from bioterrorism are of national and international concern. We outline a system of disease surveillance covering a selection of diseases linked to potential bioterrorist threats, based on the weekly returns service of the Royal College of General Practitioners and covering a surveillance population of 650,000 in England and Wales. Practices record working diagnoses and the episode type (distinguishing new episodes of illness from ongoing consultations) on patients' computerised medical records. These are interrogated twice weekly by using automated routines. The registered population and persons consulting for each Read code (group of codes) are counted in sex and age specific groups and the data forwarded electronically to the Research Unit, where the results are consolidated by region (North, Central, South). Weekly incidence rates between October 2001 and September 2002 were compared with the weekly average over the past seven years for 13 selected conditions. Detailed data are presented for three conditions (asthma, infections of the skin, disorders of the peripheral nervous system). For asthma increased incidence was reported in weeks 31 and 32 of 2002, predominantly in the Central region. For the other two conditions no unusual peaks of incidence were observed in any region. Operational research based on disciplined recording of morbidity in general practice can deliver timely surveillance data on bioterrorist threats.

  17. International trade drives biodiversity threats in developing nations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenzen, M; Moran, D; Kanemoto, K; Foran, B; Lobefaro, L; Geschke, A

    2012-06-06

    Human activities are causing Earth's sixth major extinction event-an accelerating decline of the world's stocks of biological diversity at rates 100 to 1,000 times pre-human levels. Historically, low-impact intrusion into species habitats arose from local demands for food, fuel and living space. However, in today's increasingly globalized economy, international trade chains accelerate habitat degradation far removed from the place of consumption. Although adverse effects of economic prosperity and economic inequality have been confirmed, the importance of international trade as a driver of threats to species is poorly understood. Here we show that a significant number of species are threatened as a result of international trade along complex routes, and that, in particular, consumers in developed countries cause threats to species through their demand of commodities that are ultimately produced in developing countries. We linked 25,000 Animalia species threat records from the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List to more than 15,000 commodities produced in 187 countries and evaluated more than 5 billion supply chains in terms of their biodiversity impacts. Excluding invasive species, we found that 30% of global species threats are due to international trade. In many developed countries, the consumption of imported coffee, tea, sugar, textiles, fish and other manufactured items causes a biodiversity footprint that is larger abroad than at home. Our results emphasize the importance of examining biodiversity loss as a global systemic phenomenon, instead of looking at the degrading or polluting producers in isolation. We anticipate that our findings will facilitate better regulation, sustainable supply-chain certification and consumer product labelling.

  18. Improving Visual Threat Detection: Research to Validate the Threat Detection Skills Trainer

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    above, these responses included: • “The unsettled dirt,” • “ Grassy area,” and • “Weapons not held properly.” We hypothesized that training would...alternative explanation is that with training, participants narrow their choices to threat relevant cues rather than identifying all possible threats

  19. 49 CFR 1544.303 - Bomb or air piracy threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Bomb or air piracy threats. 1544.303 Section 1544... AND COMMERCIAL OPERATORS Threat and Threat Response § 1544.303 Bomb or air piracy threats. (a) Flight... upon receiving information that an act or suspected act of air piracy has been committed, the...

  20. 49 CFR 1546.301 - Bomb or air piracy threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Bomb or air piracy threats. 1546.301 Section 1546... Threat Response § 1546.301 Bomb or air piracy threats. No foreign air carrier may land or take off an airplane in the United States after receiving a bomb or air piracy threat against that airplane, unless...

  1. Evaluating task-based syllabus for EFL learners

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luu, Hoang Mai

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This research is an evaluation of the effectiveness of task-based syllabus on EFL learners’ language competence at a private university in Vietnam educational context. This research resorts to questionnaire survey, semi-structured interview, and pretest and posttest as instruments for data collection. The research findings revealed that a strength of the current task-based syllabus is the match between lesson topics and students’ expectations. However, the syllabus still created difficulties for students including insufficient vocabulary, unfamiliar structures, and lack of life knowledge. The effect of teaching with task-based syllabus on students’ language performance is also reflected through a significant difference in mean scores between the pretest and the posttest. This research provides an insight into the effectiveness of English teaching through task-based syllabus at a private university in Vietnam setting. It implies to teachers that they need to be sustainable change catalysts for more interesting syllabus for learners

  2. Model-based efficiency evaluation of combine harvester traction drives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steffen Häberle

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available As part of the research the drive train of the combine harvesters is investigated in detail. The focus on load and power distribution, energy consumption and usage distribution are explicitly explored on two test machines. Based on the lessons learned during field operations, model-based studies of energy saving potential in the traction train of combine harvesters can now be quantified. Beyond that the virtual machine trial provides an opportunity to compare innovative drivetrain architectures and control solutions under reproducible conditions. As a result, an evaluation method is presented and generically used to draw comparisons under local representative operating conditions.

  3. Performance-based concept on seismic evaluation of existing bridges

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yu-Chi Sung; Wen-I Liao; W.Phillip Yen

    2009-01-01

    Conventional seismic evaluation of existing bridges explores the ability of a bridge to survive under significant earthquake excitations. This approach has several major drawbacks, such as only a single structural performance of near collapse is considered, and the simplified approach of adopting strength-based concept to indirectly estimate the nonlinear behavior of a structure lacks accuracy. As a result, performance-based concepts that include a wider variety of structural performance states of a given bridge excited by different levels of earthquake intensity is needed by the engineering community. This paper introduces an improved process for the seismic evaluation of existing bridges. The relationship between the overall structural performance and earthquakes with varying levels of peak ground acceleration (PGA) can successfully be linked. A universal perspective on the seismic evaluation of bridges over their entire life-cycle can be easily obtained to investigate multiple performance objectives. The accuracy of the proposed method, based on pushover analysis, is proven in a case study that compares the results from the proposed procedure with additional nonlinear time history analyses.

  4. Managing the Aviation Insider Threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-01

    World Airport NSAS National Strategy for Aviation Security OIS Office of Intelligence SIDA Security Identification Display Area STA Security...Security of the secured area”, 1542.205, “Security of the security identification display area ( SIDA )”, and 1542.209, “Fingerprint-based criminal

  5. Insider Threat Assessment: Model, Analysis and Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chinchani, Ramkumar; Ha, Duc; Iyer, Anusha; Ngo, Hung Q.; Upadhyaya, Shambhu

    Insider threat is typically attributed to legitimate users who maliciously leverage their system privileges, and familiarity and proximity to their computational environment to compromise valuable information or inflict damage. According to the annual CSI/FBI surveys conducted since 1996, internal attacks and insider abuse form a significant portion of reported incidents. The strongest indication yet that insider threat is very real is given by the recent study [2] jointly conducted by CERT and the US Secret Service; the first of its kind, which provides an in-depth insight into the problem in a real-world setting. However, there is no known body of work which addresses this problem effectively. There are several challenges, beginning with understanding the threat.

  6. Left-Wing Extremism: The Current Threat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karl A. Seger

    2001-04-30

    Left-wing extremism is ''alive and well'' both in the US and internationally. Although the current domestic terrorist threat within the U. S. is focused on right-wing extremists, left-wing extremists are also active and have several objectives. Leftist extremists also pose an espionage threat to U.S. interests. While the threat to the U.S. government from leftist extremists has decreased in the past decade, it has not disappeared. There are individuals and organizations within the U.S. who maintain the same ideology that resulted in the growth of left-wing terrorism in this country in the 1970s and 1980s. Some of the leaders from that era are still communicating from Cuba with their followers in the U.S., and new leaders and groups are emerging.

  7. Epidemiology today: Mitigating threats to an ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreiger, Nancy

    2016-06-27

    Ecosystems comprise all the living and non-living things in a particular area (e.g., rain forest, desert), which interact and maintain equilibrium. Loss of equilibrium (e.g., clear-cutting trees in a rain forest) can mean the decline of the ecosystem, unless it is able to adapt to the new circumstances. The term "knowledge ecosystem" describes an approach to managing knowledge in a particular field; the components of this system include the people, the technological skills and resources, and information or data. Epidemiology can be thought of as a knowledge ecosystem and, like ecological systems, its existence can be threatened, from both internal and external forces that may alter its equilibrium. This paper describes some threats to the epidemiology knowledge ecosystem, how these threats came about, and what responses we can make that may serve to mitigate those threats.

  8. Self-image threat decreases stereotyping: The role of motivation toward closure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossowska, Małgorzata; Bukowski, Marcin; Guinote, Ana; Dragon, Piotr; Kruglanski, Arie W

    2016-01-01

    Some prior research indicated that self-image threat may lead people to stereotyping and prejudiced evaluations of others. Other studies found that self-image threat may promote less stereotypical thinking and unprejudiced behavior. In a series of three studies, we demonstrate that self-image threat may lead to either more or less stereotypical perception of the outgroup depending on the level of the individuals` motivation toward closure (NFC). The results reveal that when individuals high (vs. low) in NFC perceived a member of an outgroup, they are less likely to use stereotypical traits if their self-image had been threatened by negative feedback (Study 1) or if they had imagined an example of their own immoral activity (Studies 2 and 3). Moreover, our results demonstrate that the fear of invalidity resulting from self-image threat induction is responsible for the foregoing effects (Study 3). These results are discussed in light of theories of motivational readiness and lay epistemics.

  9. On NEO Threat Mitigation (Preprint)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-10-15

    tracking accuracy of NEOs. This brings both challenges and opportunities, since the space observatories must be deployed and be operational for a...to such space observatories could be highly beneficial if they can be achieved reasonably cheaply. “Routine” interception of NEOs for object...NASA missions to the moon, development of space tourism and other commercial activities, and advanced DOD missions (force projection, SBR, space- based

  10. Conservation presence, not socioeconomics, leads to differences in pastoralist perceived threats to argali

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wesley M. Sarmento

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Community-based conservation approaches that keep people on landscapes increasingly complement preservationist models of reserves without people. Evaluations of community conservation have shown that economic incentives and socioeconomics primarily drive people’s attitudes and perceptions. Work at Mongolia’s Ikh Nart Nature Reserve demonstrates how to achieve successful conservation by integrating local people into the overall program. Using a short questionnaire, we interviewed pastoralist families across two soums (similar to a U.S. county in Ikh Nart. We examined (1 pastoralists’ perceived threats to argali sheep (Ovis ammon, (2 socioeconomic differences among pastoralists, and (3 differences between pastoralists from different soums. We found that 15 years of conservation activities—education, research, and modest ecotourism—that occurred in the northern soum led to influences on people’s perceptions toward argali conservation. Compared with pastoralists from southern Ikh Nart, pastoralists from the northern part of the reserve more likely knew that argali are protected and understood primary threats to the species. Socioeconomic factors, such as age, sex, and wealth, did not significantly influence responses. The negligible economic incentives in Ikh Nart did not lead to response differences. Our results demonstrate that conservation can influence people across socioeconomic classes without providing large economic incentives.

  11. GLOBAL WARMING: IS A NEW THREAT?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayca Eminoglu

    2008-09-30

    In the Post Cold War era, the concepts of ''security'', ''national security'', and ''international security'' have changed with regard to their contents and meanings. Such developments made states to renew their national security policies. Security is a special form of politics as well. All security issues are political problems but not all political conflicts are security issues. In the Post Cold War era, differentiating and increasing numbers of elements that constitutes threat changed the concept of threat and widen the capacity of security. In this term, many elements lost its effect of being a threat but also new threatening elements emerged. Environmental problems, human rights, mass migration, micro nationalism, ethnic conflicts, religious fundamentalism, contagious diseases, international terrorism, economic instabilities, drug and weapon smuggling and human trafficking are the new problems emerged in international security agenda. Environmental problems no longer take place in security issues and can be mentioned as a ''low security'' issue. They are threats to the global commons i.e. the oceans, the seas, the ozone layer and the climate system, which are life supports for mankind as a whole. Global warming is one of the most important environmental issues of our day that effects human life in every field and can be defined as a 'serious threat to international security'. Because of global warming, environmental changes will occur and these changes will cause conflicting issues in international relations. Because of global warming dwindling freshwater supplies, food shortages, political instability and other conflicts may take place. Some IR scholars see a need for global cooperation in order to face the threat. At the background of global warming and its effects, states have to get preventive measures and normally, each state form its own measures, therefore as a

  12. Bio-Terrorism Threat and Casualty Prevention

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NOEL,WILLIAM P.

    2000-01-01

    The bio-terrorism threat has become the ''poor man's'' nuclear weapon. The ease of manufacture and dissemination has allowed an organization with only rudimentary skills and equipment to pose a significant threat with high consequences. This report will analyze some of the most likely agents that would be used, the ease of manufacture, the ease of dissemination and what characteristics of the public health response that are particularly important to the successful characterization of a high consequence event to prevent excessive causalities.

  13. Bioterrorism: is it a real threat?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottschalk, René; Preiser, Wolfgang

    2005-05-01

    The Geneva Protocol of 1925 commits the signatory nations to refraining from the use of biological weapons. However, the terrorist assaults of September 2001 and, subsequently, the anthrax-containing letters are cause for great concerns: new threats to the security of nations are expected, as terrorist organizations seem to increasingly explore novel ways of spreading terror. In this context, naturally emerging diseases such as SARS, monkeypox or West Nile fever assume new importance because it is difficult to distinguish between natural epidemics and possible bioweapon assaults. Great efforts on the part of governments and public health authorities are necessary to counteract these threats.

  14. Nash bargaining with a nondeterministic threat

    CERN Document Server

    Soileau, Kerry Michael

    2008-01-01

    We consider bargaining problems which involve two participants, with a nonempty closed, bounded convex bargaining set of points in the real plane representing all realizable bargains. We also assume that there is no definite threat or disagreement point which will provide the default bargain if the players cannot agree on some point in the bargaining set. However, there is a nondeterministic threat: if the players fail to agree on a bargain, one of them will be chosen at random with equal probability, and that chosen player will select any realizable bargain as the solution, subject to a reasonable restriction.

  15. Beyond google: finding and evaluating web-based information for community-based nursing practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Louise C; Graves, Rebecca S; Jones, Barbara B; Sievert, Maryellen C

    2010-01-01

    Nurses are challenged to find and use reliable, credible information to support clinical decision-making and to meet expectations for evidence-based nursing practice. This project targeted practicing public health and school nurses, teaching them how to access and critically evaluate web-based information resources for frontline practice. Health sciences librarians partnered with nursing faculty to develop two participatory workshops to teach skills in searching for and evaluating web-based consumer and professional practice resources. The first workshop reviewed reliable, credible consumer web-resources appropriate to use with clients, using published criteria to evaluate website credibility. In the second workshop, nurses were taught how to retrieve and evaluate health-related research from professional databases to support evidence-based nursing practice. Evaluation data indicated nurses most valued knowing about the array of reliable, credible web-based health information resources, learning how to evaluate website credibility, and understanding how to find and apply professional research literature to their own practice.

  16. Comprehensive evaluation of Shahid Motahari Educational Festival during 2008-2013 based on CIPP Evaluation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SN Hosseini

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Education quality improvement is one of the main goals of higher education. In this regard, has been provided various solutions such as holding educational Shahid Motahari annual festivals, in order to appreciate of educational process, development and innovation educational processes and procedures, preparation of calibration standards and processes of accrediting educational. The aim of this study was to comprehensive evaluating of educational Shahid Motahari festival during six periods (2008-2013 based on CIPP evaluation model. Method : This cross-sectional study was conducted among the 473 faculty members include deputies and administrators educational, administrators and faculty members of medical education development centers, members of the scientific committee and faculty member’s participants in Shahid Motahari festival from 42 universities medical sciences of Iran. Data collection based on self-report writing questionnaires. Data were analyzed by SPSS version 20 at α=0.05 significant level. Results: The subjects reported 75.13%, 65.33%, 64.5%, and 59.21 % of receivable scores of process, context, input and product, respectively. In addition, there was a direct and significant correlation between all domains . Conclusion : According to the study findings, in the evaluation and correlation of domains models, we can explicitly how to holding festivals was appropriate and the main reason for the poor evaluation in product domain is related to the problems in input and product domains.

  17. Caprock Breach: A Threat to Secure Geologic Sequestration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selvadurai, A. P.; Dong, W.

    2013-12-01

    The integrity of caprock in providing a reliable barrier is crucial to several environmental geosciences endeavours related to geologic sequestration of CO2, deep geologic disposal of hazardous wastes and contaminants. The integrity of geologic barriers can be compromised by several factors. The re-activation of dormant fractures and development of new fractures in the caprock during the injection process are regarded as effects that can pose a threat to storage security. Other poromechanical influences of pore structure collapse due to chemically induced erosion of the porous fabric resulting in worm-hole type features can also contribute to compromising storage security. The assessment of the rate of steady or transient seepage through defects in the caprock can allow geoscientists to make prudent evaluations of the effectiveness of a sequestration strategy. While complicated computational simulations can be used to calculate leakage through defects, it is useful to explore alternative analytical results that could be used in providing preliminary estimates of leakage rates through defects in the caprock in a storage setting. The relevance of such developments is underscored by the fact that the permeability characteristics of the storage formation, the fracture and the surficial rocks overlying the caprock can rarely be quantified with certainty. This paper presents the problem of a crack in a caprock that connects to a storage formation and an overburden rock or surficial soil formation. The geologic media are maintained at constant far-field flow potentials and leakage takes place at either steady or transient conditions. The paper develops an analytical result that can be used to estimate the steady seepage through the crack. The analytical result can also be used to estimate the leakage through hydraulically non-intersecting cracks and leakage from caprock-well casing interfaces. The analytical result is used to estimate the accuracy of a computational

  18. Simulation-based decision support for evaluating operational plans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johan Schubert

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we describe simulation-based decision support techniques for evaluation of operational plans within effects-based planning. Using a decision support tool, developers of operational plans are able to evaluate thousands of alternative plans against possible courses of events and decide which of these plans are capable of achieving a desired end state. The objective of this study is to examine the potential of a decision support system that helps operational analysts understand the consequences of numerous alternative plans through simulation and evaluation. Operational plans are described in the effects-based approach to operations concept as a set of actions and effects. For each action, we examine several different alternative ways to perform the action. We use a representation where a plan consists of several actions that should be performed. Each action may be performed in one of several different alternative ways. Together these action alternatives make up all possible plan instances, which are represented as a tree of action alternatives that may be searched for the most effective sequence of alternative actions. As a test case, we use an expeditionary operation with a plan of 43 actions and several alternatives for these actions, as well as a scenario of 40 group actors. Decision support for planners is provided by several methods that analyze the impact of a plan on the 40 actors, e.g., by visualizing time series of plan performance. Detailed decision support for finding the most influential actions of a plan is presented by using sensitivity analysis and regression tree analysis. Finally, a decision maker may use the tool to determine the boundaries of an operation that it must not move beyond without risk of drastic failure. The significant contribution of this study is the presentation of an integrated approach for evaluation of operational plans.

  19. Efficient p-value evaluation for resampling-based tests

    KAUST Repository

    Yu, K.

    2011-01-05

    The resampling-based test, which often relies on permutation or bootstrap procedures, has been widely used for statistical hypothesis testing when the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is unavailable or unreliable. It requires repeated calculations of the test statistic on a large number of simulated data sets for its significance level assessment, and thus it could become very computationally intensive. Here, we propose an efficient p-value evaluation procedure by adapting the stochastic approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The new procedure can be used easily for estimating the p-value for any resampling-based test. We show through numeric simulations that the proposed procedure can be 100-500 000 times as efficient (in term of computing time) as the standard resampling-based procedure when evaluating a test statistic with a small p-value (e.g. less than 10( - 6)). With its computational burden reduced by this proposed procedure, the versatile resampling-based test would become computationally feasible for a much wider range of applications. We demonstrate the application of the new method by applying it to a large-scale genetic association study of prostate cancer.

  20. The Human Threat to River Ecosystems at the Watershed Scale: An Ecological Security Assessment of the Songhua River Basin, Northeast China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Shen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Human disturbances impact river basins by reducing the quality of, and services provided by, aquatic ecosystems. Conducting quantitative assessments of ecological security at the watershed scale is important for enhancing the water quality of river basins and promoting environmental management. In this study, China’s Songhua River Basin was divided into 204 assessment units by combining watershed and administrative boundaries. Ten human threat factors were identified based on their significant influence on the river ecosystem. A modified ecological threat index was used to synthetically evaluate the ecological security, where frequency was weighted by flow length from the grids to the main rivers, while severity was weighted by the potential hazard of the factors on variables of river ecosystem integrity. The results showed that individual factors related to urbanization, agricultural development and facility construction presented different spatial distribution characteristics. At the center of the plain area, the provincial capital cities posed the highest level of threat, as did the municipal districts of prefecture-level cities. The spatial relationships between hot spot locations of the ecological threat index and water quality, as well as the distribution areas of critically endangered species, were analyzed. The sensitivity analysis illustrated that alteration of agricultural development largely changed the ecological security level of the basin. By offering a reference for assessing ecological security, this study can enhance water environmental planning and management.

  1. Towards Reliable Evaluation of Anomaly-Based Intrusion Detection Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viswanathan, Arun

    2012-01-01

    This report describes the results of research into the effects of environment-induced noise on the evaluation process for anomaly detectors in the cyber security domain. This research was conducted during a 10-week summer internship program from the 19th of August, 2012 to the 23rd of August, 2012 at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. The research performed lies within the larger context of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) Smart Grid cyber security project, a Department of Energy (DoE) funded effort involving the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology and the University of Southern California/ Information Sciences Institute. The results of the present effort constitute an important contribution towards building more rigorous evaluation paradigms for anomaly-based intrusion detectors in complex cyber physical systems such as the Smart Grid. Anomaly detection is a key strategy for cyber intrusion detection and operates by identifying deviations from profiles of nominal behavior and are thus conceptually appealing for detecting "novel" attacks. Evaluating the performance of such a detector requires assessing: (a) how well it captures the model of nominal behavior, and (b) how well it detects attacks (deviations from normality). Current evaluation methods produce results that give insufficient insight into the operation of a detector, inevitably resulting in a significantly poor characterization of a detectors performance. In this work, we first describe a preliminary taxonomy of key evaluation constructs that are necessary for establishing rigor in the evaluation regime of an anomaly detector. We then focus on clarifying the impact of the operational environment on the manifestation of attacks in monitored data. We show how dynamic and evolving environments can introduce high variability into the data stream perturbing detector performance. Prior research has focused on understanding the impact of this

  2. Technological Innovations to Counter CBRNE Threat Vectors and Ecotage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaseashta, Ashok

    The ubiquitous presence of sensors for enhanced situational awareness necessitates an innovative, articulate, and focused review of their design, architecture, functionality, and interoperability. A comprehensive overview of the latest and state-of-the art technological innovations in point and stand-off sensing/detection platforms with the objective of countering threats arising from chemical-biological-nuclear-high yield explosives (CBRNE) is the focus of this investigation. Ongoing research efforts and future research directions based on advanced approaches, including nanomaterials to develop materials, devices, and systems for potential use in sensing and detection of such threat vectors are articulated. The concept of advanced sciences convergences is introduced to examine the feasibility of potentially new and innovative research directions for persistent surveillance of CBRNE agents and infectious diseases. The intentional release of such agents in the environment constitutes ecological sabotage. Advanced sensing/detection platforms for CBRNE are used to detect threats to the environment. Issues associated with the use of nanomaterials regarding societal implications and dual-use concerns are addressed by studying fate and transport and the development of guidelines for a risk-assessment model. A roadmap of the future of nanomaterials, in terms of complexity, a nexus of disciplines, and its emerging potential to provide advanced, futuristic, and a paradigm-shifting platform is presented.

  3. Implementation and Performance Evaluation of IPSec VPN Based on Netfilter

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Da-yuan; JIANG Yi-xin; LIN Chuang; LI Yan-xi

    2005-01-01

    We mainly explore two problems when combining IPSec module into TCP/IP stack by porting the famous IPSec software (FreeS/WAN) into a security gateway. One is how to implement the IPSec module based on Netfilter in Linux 2.4. x kernel. The other problem is the performance evaluation. We test the throughput of our security gateway before and after applying IPSec with different encryption/decryption algorithms, including the software-based and hardware-based method. With these testing data, we analyze further system performance bottleneck. In the end, we also infer the quantitative relation between the system throughput and the speed of encryption/decryption algorithm and propose some valuable conclusions for improving performance.

  4. An Evaluation of Computer-Based Instruction in Microbiology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susan M. Merkel

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available There has been a tremendous increase in the availability of computer-based instructional (CBI materials. Some studies have shown an improvement in learning when CBI is used. However, many researchers believe the current studies are inadequate. While CBI software should be thoroughly tested by developers, as educators, we should be concerned about whether or not the CBI materials we use are improving learning in our classrooms with our students. We present an evaluation of a computer-based hypermedia tutorial that was delivered over our General Microbiology website. We found that CBI was at least as effective as text-based material. However, of all students who used CBI, only those who explored most of the site benefited from using the site. Tracking each student's use of the CBI was critical for understanding who was learning and why.

  5. An Evaluation of Computer-Based Instruction in Microbiology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerry S. Leventhal

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available There has been a tremendous increase in the availability of computer-based instructional (CBI materials. Some studies have shown an improvement in learning when CBI is used. However, many researchers believe the current studies are inadequate. While CBI software should be thoroughly tested by developers, as educators, we should be concerned about whether or not the CBI materials we use are improving learning in our classrooms with our students. We present an evaluation of a computer-based hypermedia tutorial that was delivered over our General Microbiology website. We found that CBI was at least as effective as text-based material. However, of all students who used CBI, only those who explored most of the site benefited from using the site. Tracking each student's use of the CBI was critical for understanding who was learning and why.

  6. Finding, retrieving and evaluating journal and web-based information for evidence-based optometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Ann-Maree

    2007-07-01

    How can optometrists ensure they are basing their advice to patients on the most reliable information available? This paper discusses search tools, databases, websites and journals, which provide free, full-text, web-based access to evidence-based literature. Brief tips on searching these resources are provided for the time-poor practitioner or researcher. Criteria, such as credibility, currency and bias are used to evaluate written material and will be discussed with particular reference to the problems inherent in evaluating web pages.

  7. Value-Added Models for Teacher Preparation Programs: Validity and Reliability Threats, and a Manageable Alternative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, Michael P.; Heiser, Lawrence A.; McCormick, Jazarae K.; Forgan, James

    2016-01-01

    High-stakes standardized student assessments are increasingly used in value-added evaluation models to connect teacher performance to P-12 student learning. These assessments are also being used to evaluate teacher preparation programs, despite validity and reliability threats. A more rational model linking student performance to candidates who…

  8. Threat perception and familiarity moderate the androgen response to competition in women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Gonçalo A; Uceda, Sara; Oliveira, Tânia; Fernandes, Alexandre; Garcia-Marques, Teresa; Oliveira, Rui F

    2013-01-01

    Social interactions elicit androgen responses whose function has been posited to be the adjustment of androgen-dependent behaviors to social context. The activation of this androgen response is known to be mediated and moderated by psychological factors. In this study we tested the hypothesis that the testosterone (T) changes after a competition are not simply related to its outcome, but rather to the way the subject evaluates the event. In particular we tested two evaluative dimensions of a social interaction: familiarity with the opponent and the subjective evaluation of the outcome as threat or challenge. Challenge/threat occurs in goal relevant situations and represent different motivational states arising from the individuals' subjective evaluation of the interplay between the task demands and coping resources possessed. For challenge the coping resources exceed the task demands, while threat represents a state where coping resources are insufficient to meet the task demands. In this experiment women competed in pairs, against a same sex opponent using the number tracking test as a competitive task. Losers appraised the competition outcome as more threatening than winners, and displayed higher post-competition T levels than winners. No differences were found either for cortisol (C) or for dehydroepiandrosterone. Threat, familiarity with the opponent and T response were associated only in the loser condition. Moderation analysis suggests that for the women that lost the competition the effect of threat on T is moderated by familiarity with the opponent.

  9. Threat perception and familiarity moderate the androgen response to competition in women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui F Oliveira

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Social interactions elicit androgen responses whose function has been posited to be the adjustment of androgen dependent behaviors to social context. The activation of this androgen response is known to be mediated and moderated by psychological factors. In this study we tested the hypothesis that the testosterone (T changes after a competition are not simply related to its outcome, but rather to the way the subject evaluates the event. In particular we tested two evaluative dimensions of a social interaction: familiarity with the opponent and the subjective evaluation of the outcome as threat or challenge. Challenge/Threat occurs in goal relevant situations and represent different motivational states arising from the individuals’ subjective evaluation of the interplay between the task demands and coping resources possessed. For challenge the coping resources exceed the task demands, while threat represents a state where coping resources are insufficient to meet the task demands. In this experiment women competed in pairs, against a same sex opponent using the Number Tracking Test as a competitive task. Losers appraised the competition outcome as more threatening than winners, and displayed higher post-competition T levels than winners. No differences were found either for Cortisol (C or for dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA. Threat, familiarity with the opponent and T response were associated only in the loser condition. Moderation analysis suggests that for the women that lost the competition the effect of threat on T is moderated by familiarity with the opponent.

  10. Efficient Satellite Scheduling Based on Improved Vector Evaluated Genetic Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tengyue Mao

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Satellite scheduling is a typical multi-peak, many-valley, nonlinear multi-objective optimization problem. How to effectively implement the satellite scheduling is a crucial research in space areas.This paper mainly discusses the performance of VEGA (Vector Evaluated Genetic Algorithm based on the study of basic principles of VEGA algorithm, algorithm realization and test function, and then improves VEGA algorithm through introducing vector coding, new crossover and mutation operators, new methods to assign fitness and hold good individuals. As a result, the diversity and convergence of improved VEGA algorithm of improved VEGA algorithm have been significantly enhanced and will be applied to Earth-Mars orbit optimization. At the same time, this paper analyzes the results of the improved VEGA, whose results of performance analysis and evaluation show that although VEGA has a profound impact upon multi-objective evolutionary research,  multi-objective evolutionary algorithm on the basis of Pareto seems to be a more effective method to get the non-dominated solutions from the perspective of diversity and convergence of experimental result. Finally, based on Visual C + + integrated development environment, we have implemented improved vector evaluation algorithm in the satellite scheduling.

  11. Approach to Weighted Geometric Evaluation Based on Projection Pursuit

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yang Shanlin; Wang Shuo; Gong Daning

    2006-01-01

    Weighted geometric evaluation approach based on Projection pursuit (PP) model is presented in this paper to optimize the choice of schemes. By using PP model, the multi-dimension evaluation index values of schemes can be synthesized into projection value with one dimension. The scheme with a bigger projection value is much better, so the schemes sample can be an optimized choice according to the projection value of each scheme. The modeling of PP based on accelerating genetic algorithm can predigest the realized process of projection pursuit technique, can overcome the shortcomings of large computation amount and the difficulty of computer programming in traditional projection pursuit methods, and can give a new method for application of projection pursuit technique to optimize choice of schemes by using weighted geometric evaluation. The analysis of an applied sample shows that applying PP model driven directly by samples data to optimize choice of schemes is both simple and feasible, that its projection values are relatively decentralized and profit decision-making, that its applicability and maneuverability are high. It can avoid the shortcoming of subjective weighing method, and its results are scientific and objective.

  12. Corrosion evaluation of gold-based dental alloys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corso, P P; German, R M; Simmons, H D

    1985-05-01

    Three commercial gold-based dental alloys and three constant-nobility ternary alloys (Au-Ag-Cu) were evaluated for corrosion using a quantitative test battery. Integration of the current density, in a de-aerated solution of 1% NaCl along the approximate potential range found in the mouth (-300 mV to +300 mV vs. SCE), yields a quantitative rank ordering of the test alloys. The results are combined with prior findings on other commercial alloys to demonstrate the interaction of nobility and microstructure. Nobility determines the overall corrosion resistance for gold-based alloys. However, because of mutual insolubility, alloying with copper induces silver segregation, resulting in a higher corrosion rate at a given nobility. Thus, microstructure has an influence on corrosion, but heat treatments are largely ineffective in altering the basic corrosion characteristics. The test techniques, in combination with tarnish evaluations, provide a quantitative battery for alloy evaluation. The results indicate the combinations of nobility, microstructure, and environment most likely to avoid corrosion difficulties.

  13. Evaluating the Usability of Optimizing Text-based CAPTCHA Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suliman A. Alsuhibany

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available A CAPTCHA is a test that can, automatically, tell human and computer programs apart. It is a mechanism widely used nowadays for protecting web applications, interfaces, and services from malicious users and automated spammers. Usability and robustness are two fundamental aspects with CAPTCHA, where the usability aspect is the ease with which humans pass its challenges, while the robustness is the strength of its segmentation-resistance mechanism. The collapsing mechanism, which is removing the space between characters to prevent segmentation, has been shown to be reasonably resistant to known attacks. On the other hand, this mechanism drops considerably the human-solvability of text-based CAPTCHAs. Accordingly, an optimizer has previously been proposed that automatically enhances the usability of a CAPTCHA generation without sacrificing its robustness level. However, this optimizer has not yet been evaluated in terms of improving the usability. This paper, therefore, evaluates the usability of this optimizer by conducting an experimental study. The results of this evaluation showed that a statistically significant enhancement is found in the usability of text-based CAPTCHA generation.

  14. Trust Evaluation Model based on Multiple Service Attributes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoxue Ma

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available when the most trusted models evaluate level of trust about service entities at present, the credibility of the service attributes whether the two sides trading result is credible is rather ambiguous, which makes the evaluation model lack of persuasion, and not very good depict the complexity and uncertainty of trust relationship between the two sides. In view of the above questions, learning trust relationship from human society, according to the service of the node itself, abstracting representative multiple service attributes from the trusted relationship of the node service, service requester comprehensive evaluates multiple service attributes provided by service provider based on personal interest, and combines with the trust value, decide whether to trade finally; after the transaction, service request calculates QoS(quality of service difference degree according to actual QoS and service provider’own QoS claimed to judge the credibility of service provider, then gives corresponding rewards and punishment and trust update. Simulation results show that the model can evaluative accurately the node’s trust degree and effectively control of malicious nodes attack, when the malicious nodes have a higher proportion in the system ,it can still keep high success rate.

  15. [A Standing Balance Evaluation Method Based on Largest Lyapunov Exponent].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Kun; Wang, Hongrui; Xiao, Jinzhuang; Zhao, Qing

    2015-12-01

    In order to evaluate the ability of human standing balance scientifically, we in this study proposed a new evaluation method based on the chaos nonlinear analysis theory. In this method, a sinusoidal acceleration stimulus in forward/backward direction was forced under the subjects' feet, which was supplied by a motion platform. In addition, three acceleration sensors, which were fixed to the shoulder, hip and knee of each subject, were applied to capture the balance adjustment dynamic data. Through reconstructing the system phase space, we calculated the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE) of the dynamic data of subjects' different segments, then used the sum of the squares of the difference between each LLE (SSDLLE) as the balance capabilities evaluation index. Finally, 20 subjects' indexes were calculated, and compared with evaluation results of existing methods. The results showed that the SSDLLE were more in line with the subjects' performance during the experiment, and it could measure the body's balance ability to some extent. Moreover, the results also illustrated that balance level was determined by the coordinate ability of various joints, and there might be more balance control strategy in the process of maintaining balance.

  16. Defensive activation to (un)predictable interoceptive threat: The NPU respiratory threat test (NPUr).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroijen, Mathias; Fantoni, Simona; Rivera, Carmen; Vervliet, Bram; Schruers, Koen; van den Bergh, Omer; van Diest, Ilse

    2016-06-01

    Potentially life-threatening interoceptive sensations easily engage the behavioral defensive system. Resulting fear and anxiety toward interoceptive threat are functionally distinct states that are hypothesized to play a prominent role in the etiology of panic disorder. The present study aimed to investigate whether fear- and anxiety-potentiated startle responses occur to predictable and unpredictable interoceptive threat, respectively. Therefore, we modified the NPU threat test (Schmitz & Grillon, ) and replaced the aversive electrocutaneous stimulus with an aversive interoceptive stimulus (a breathing occlusion, making it briefly impossible to breathe). Healthy participants (N = 48) underwent three instructed conditions. A visual cue signaled the occlusion in the predictable condition (P), whereas another cue was unrelated to the occurrence of the occlusion in the unpredictable condition (U). The safe condition (N) also had a visual cue, but no occlusion. Both fear- and anxiety-potentiated startle blink responses were observed in response to predictable and unpredictable respiratory threat, respectively. The current study presents and validates the NPU respiratory threat test (NPUr) as an ecologically valid paradigm to study both anxiety and fear in response to a panic-relevant interoceptive threat. The paradigm allows future testing of contextual generalization, investigation of different clinical groups, and more explicit comparisons of defensive responding to interoceptive versus exteroceptive threats.

  17. Threat Mitigation: The Asteroid Tugboat

    CERN Document Server

    Schweickart, R; Durda, D; Hut, P; Chapman, Clark; Durda, Dan; Hut, Piet; Schweickart, Russell

    2006-01-01

    The Asteroid Tugboat (AT) is a fully controlled asteroid deflection concept using a robotic spacecraft powered by a high efficiency, electric propulsion system (ion or plasma) which docks with and attaches to the asteroid, conducts preliminary operations, and then thrusts continuously parallel to the asteroid velocity vector until the desired velocity change is achieved. Based on early warning, provided by ground tracking and orbit prediction, it would be deployed a decade or more prior to a potential impact. On completion of the initial rendezvous with the near-Earth object (NEO) the AT would first reduce the uncertainty in the orbit of the asteroid via Earth tracking of its radio transponder while it is station keeping with the asteroid. If on analysis of tracking data a deflection is required the AT would execute a reconnaissance phase collecting and processing information about the physical characteristics of the asteroid to support subsequent operations. The AT would then dock at the appropriate pole (i....

  18. Evaluation of Liquefaction Return Period for Bangalore Based on Standard Penetration Test Data: Performance Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. S. Vipin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: The conventional liquefaction evaluation is based on a deterministic approach. However in this method the uncertainty in the earthquake loading is not properly taken into account. However recent research in this field indicates that this uncertainty in the earthquake loading has to be considered in the liquefaction potential evaluation. Moreover the evaluation of liquefaction return period is not possible in the conventional deterministic methods. This study explained the methods for evaluating the probability of liquefaction and the return period of liquefaction based on probabilistic approach. Approach: In this study the geotechnical data was collected from 450 bore holes in Bangalore, India, covering an area of 220 km2. The seismic hazard analysis for the study area is carried out using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA and the peak acceleration at ground surface was evaluated for site class-D after considering local site effects. For assessment of site class, shear wave velocity profiles in the city had been obtained using Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW survey. Based on this data the probabilistic liquefaction analysis was done to evaluate the probability of liquefaction in the study area. Based on the performance based approach the liquefaction return period for the study area was also evaluated. Results: The results showed the variation of liquefaction susceptibility for the study area. The corrected standard penetration values required to prevent the liquefaction for return periods of 475 and 2500 years were also presented here. Conclusion/Recommendations: The spatial variation of probability of liquefaction and the factor of safety against liquefaction evaluated using the two methods match well for the study area.

  19. Evaluation of a hydrological model based on Bidirectional Reach (BReach)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Eerdenbrugh, Katrien; Van Hoey, Stijn; Verhoest, Niko E. C.

    2016-04-01

    Evaluation and discrimination of model structures is crucial to ensure an appropriate use of hydrological models. When evaluating model results by aggregating their quality in (a subset of) individual observations, overall results of this analysis sometimes conceal important detailed information about model structural deficiencies. Analyzing model results within their local (time) context can uncover this detailed information. In this research, a methodology called Bidirectional Reach (BReach) is proposed to evaluate and analyze results of a hydrological model by assessing the maximum left and right reach in each observation point that is used for model evaluation. These maximum reaches express the capability of the model to describe a subset of the evaluation data both in the direction of the previous (left) and of the following data (right). This capability is evaluated on two levels. First, on the level of individual observations, the combination of a parameter set and an observation is classified as non-acceptable if the deviation between the accompanying model result and the measurement exceeds observational uncertainty. Second, the behavior in a sequence of observations is evaluated by means of a tolerance degree. This tolerance degree expresses the condition for satisfactory model behavior in a data series and is defined by the percentage of observations within this series that can have non-acceptable model results. Based on both criteria, the maximum left and right reaches of a model in an observation represent the data points in the direction of the previous respectively the following observations beyond which none of the sampled parameter sets both are satisfactory and result in an acceptable deviation. After assessing these reaches for a variety of tolerance degrees, results can be plotted in a combined BReach plot that show temporal changes in the behavior of model results. The methodology is applied on a Probability Distributed Model (PDM) of the river

  20. Using the threat probability task to assess anxiety and fear during uncertain and certain threat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradford, Daniel E; Magruder, Katherine P; Korhumel, Rachel A; Curtin, John J

    2014-09-12

    Fear of certain threat and anxiety about uncertain threat are distinct emotions with unique behavioral, cognitive-attentional, and neuroanatomical components. Both anxiety and fear can be studied in the laboratory by measuring the potentiation of the startle reflex. The startle reflex is a defensive reflex that is potentiated when an organism is threatened and the need for defense is high. The startle reflex is assessed via electromyography (EMG) in the orbicularis oculi muscle elicited by brief, intense, bursts of acoustic white noise (i.e., "startle probes"). Startle potentiation is calculated as the increase in startle response magnitude during presentation of sets of visual threat cues that signal delivery of mild electric shock relative to sets of matched cues that signal the absence of shock (no-threat cues). In the Threat Probability Task, fear is measured via startle potentiation to high probability (100% cue-contingent shock; certain) threat cues whereas anxiety is measured via startle potentiation to low probability (20% cue-contingent shock; uncertain) threat cues. Measurement of startle potentiation during the Threat Probability Task provides an objective and easily implemented alternative to assessment of negative affect via self-report or other methods (e.g., neuroimaging) that may be inappropriate or impractical for some researchers. Startle potentiation has been studied rigorously in both animals (e.g., rodents, non-human primates) and humans which facilitates animal-to-human translational research. Startle potentiation during certain and uncertain threat provides an objective measure of negative affective and distinct emotional states (fear, anxiety) to use in research on psychopathology, substance use/abuse and broadly in affective science. As such, it has been used extensively by clinical scientists interested in psychopathology etiology and by affective scientists interested in individual differences in emotion.

  1. Performance Evaluation of a Biometric System Based on Acoustic Images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan J. Villacorta

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available An acoustic electronic scanning array for acquiring images from a person using a biometric application is developed. Based on pulse-echo techniques, multifrequency acoustic images are obtained for a set of positions of a person (front, front with arms outstretched, back and side. Two Uniform Linear Arrays (ULA with 15 l/2-equispaced sensors have been employed, using different spatial apertures in order to reduce sidelobe levels. Working frequencies have been designed on the basis of the main lobe width, the grating lobe levels and the frequency responses of people and sensors. For a case-study with 10 people, the acoustic profiles, formed by all images acquired, are evaluated and compared in a mean square error sense. Finally, system performance, using False Match Rate (FMR/False Non-Match Rate (FNMR parameters and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC curve, is evaluated. On the basis of the obtained results, this system could be used for biometric applications.

  2. Neurally based measurement and evaluation of environmental noise

    CERN Document Server

    Soeta, Yoshiharu

    2015-01-01

    This book deals with methods of measurement and evaluation of environmental noise based on an auditory neural and brain-oriented model. The model consists of the autocorrelation function (ACF) and the interaural cross-correlation function (IACF) mechanisms for signals arriving at the two ear entrances. Even when the sound pressure level of a noise is only about 35 dBA, people may feel annoyed due to the aspects of sound quality. These aspects can be formulated by the factors extracted from the ACF and IACF. Several examples of measuring environmental noise—from outdoor noise such as that of aircraft, traffic, and trains, and indoor noise such as caused by floor impact, toilets, and air-conditioning—are demonstrated. According to the noise measurement and evaluation, applications for sound design are discussed. This book provides an excellent resource for students, researchers, and practitioners in a wide range of fields, such as the automotive, railway, and electronics industries, and soundscape, architec...

  3. Performance Evaluation of Air-Based Heat Rejection Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannes Fugmann

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of the Number of Transfer Units (NTU method a functional relation between electric power for fans/pumps and effectiveness in dry coolers and wet cooling towers is developed. Based on this relation, a graphical presentation method of monitoring and simulation data of heat rejection units is introduced. The functional relation allows evaluating the thermodynamic performance of differently sized heat rejection units and comparing performance among them. The method is used to evaluate monitoring data of dry coolers of different solar cooling field projects. The novelty of this approach is that performance rating is not limited by a design point or standardized operating conditions of the heat exchanger, but is realizable under flexible conditions.

  4. Performance Evaluation of Image Fusion Based on Discrete Cosine Transform

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramkrishna Patil

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Discrete cosine transform (DCT is used for fusion of two different images and for image compression. Image fusion deals with creating an image by combining portions from other images to obtain an image in which all of the objects are in focus. Two multi focus images are used for image fusion. Different fusion algorithms are used and their performance is evaluated using evaluation metrics such as PSNR, SSIM, Spatial Frequency, Quality Index, Structural Content, Mean Absolute Error. Fusion performance is not good while using the algorithms with block size less than 64x64 and also the block size of 512x512. Contrast, amplitude and energy based image fusion algorithms performed well. The fused images are comparable with the reference image. Only the image size is considered but blurring percentage is not considered. These algorithms are very simple and might be suitable for real time applications

  5. Threats and Vulnerabilities of RFID and Beyond

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoepman, J.H.; Veugen, P.J.M.

    2009-01-01

    This chapter discusses both security and privacy threats to RFID systems, in a balanced way. We first outline the general architecture of an RFID system, the stakeholders managing the different components, and identify the specific properties of RFID systems relevant for privacy and security. We the

  6. The Missing Piece in Threat Intelligence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Denis

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Common systems for sharing intelligence on security threats have not been designed to efficiently process feedback from infrastructure providers. In order to fill this gap, we introduce DIP, a new description language to expose changes being made on a network that are relevant to security research and prevention.

  7. Hostile Intelligence Threat U.S. Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-11-01

    Assistant Secretary of Defense for DoD 5200.1-PH-2 Command, Control, Comunnications , and Intelligence (703) 695-2686 DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE DTIC...intelligence threat: "* PROGRAM MANAGER Telephone: "* INSTALLATION SECURITY OFFICE Telephone: "* LOCAL DIS COGNIZANT SECURITY OFFICE (Industrial

  8. Primary Auditory Cortex Regulates Threat Memory Specificity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wigestrand, Mattis B.; Schiff, Hillary C.; Fyhn, Marianne; LeDoux, Joseph E.; Sears, Robert M.

    2017-01-01

    Distinguishing threatening from nonthreatening stimuli is essential for survival and stimulus generalization is a hallmark of anxiety disorders. While auditory threat learning produces long-lasting plasticity in primary auditory cortex (Au1), it is not clear whether such Au1 plasticity regulates memory specificity or generalization. We used…

  9. Southern Africa’s Transnational Threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-01

    smuggling of rare species and resources , money laundering, and smuggling of stolen vehicles. All of these events share a common trait. They each imply a...and Instability in Central Africa” A Threat Assesment , October 2011, linked from United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime home page at “Annual

  10. Antibiotic and Antimicrobial Resistance: Threat Report 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) [page 77] Drug-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae [page 79] Drug-resistant tuberculosis [page 81] Microorganisms with a Threat Level of Concerning Vancomycin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus ... Streptococcus [page 87] Clindamycin-resistant Group B Streptococcus [page ...

  11. Threats and countermeasures for network security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denning, Peter J.

    1991-01-01

    In the late 1980's, the traditional threat of anonymous break-ins to networked computers was joined by viruses and worms, multiplicative surrogates that carry out the bidding of their authors. Technologies for authentication and secrecy, supplemented by good management practices, are the principal countermeasures. Four articles on these subjects are presented.

  12. The silent threat of low genetic diversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Margaret E.

    2013-01-01

    Across the Caribbean, protected coastal waters have served as primary feeding and breeding grounds for the endangered Antillean manatee. Unfortunately, these same coastal waters are also a popular “habitat” for humans. In the past, the overlap between human and manatee habitat allowed for manatee hunting and threatened the survival of these gentle marine mammals. Today, however, threats are much more inadvertent and are often related to coastal development, degraded habitats and boat strikes. In the state of Florida, decades of research on the species’ biological needs have helped conservationists address threats to its survival. For example, low wake zones and boater education have protected manatees from boat strikes, and many of their critical winter refuges are now protected. The Florida population has grown steadily, thus increasing from approximately 1,200 in 1991 to more than 5,000 in 2010. It is conceivable that in Florida manatees may one day be reclassified as “threatened” rather than “endangered.” Yet, in other parts of the Caribbean, threats still loom. This includes small, isolated manatee populations found on islands that can be more susceptible to extinction and lack of genetic diversity. To ensure the species’ long-term viability, scientists have turned their sights to the overall population dynamics of manatees throughout the Caribbean. Molecular genetics has provided new insights into long-term threats the species faces. Fortunately, the emerging field of conservation genetics provides managers with tools and strategies for protecting the species’ long-term viability.

  13. 基于熵权灰色关联和D-S证据理论的威胁评估%Threat assessment based on entropy weight grey incidence and D-S theory of evidence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李特; 冯琦; 张堃

    2013-01-01

    为了更好地处理空中威胁目标的不确定性信息,提出了基于熵权灰色关联和D-S证据理论相结合的威胁评估方法.将熵理论应用于求解各指标权重,利用灰色关联法确定各指标的不确信度,进而得到各指标下不同目标的Mass函数,通过D-S证据理论对各Mass函数进行合成,根据置信函数大小对目标进行排序.仿真实验证明该方法是合理有效的.%By combining entropy weight grey incidence with D-S theory of evidence, this paper proposed a method of threat assessment to deal with the uncertain information of aerial threat target. It employed the theory of entropy to acquire the weights of different indices. Meanwhile, it determined uncertain degrees corresponding to different indices through the methodology of grey incidence. Subsequently, it obtained the Mass functions of different targets in different indices. It carried out the fusion of different Mass functions on the basis of D-S theory of evidence, sorted the targets according to the belief function value. A numerical example demonstrates that the aforementioned method is reasonable and effective.

  14. Bio-Based Adhesives and Evaluation for Wood Composites Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Ferdosian

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available There has been a rapid growth in research and innovation of bio-based adhesives in the engineered wood product industry. This article reviews the recent research published over the last few decades on the synthesis of bio-adhesives derived from such renewable resources as lignin, starch, and plant proteins. The chemical structure of these biopolymers is described and discussed to highlight the active functional groups that are used in the synthesis of bio-adhesives. The potentials and drawbacks of each biomass are then discussed in detail; some methods have been suggested to modify their chemical structures and to improve their properties including water resistance and bonding strength for their ultimate application as wood adhesives. Moreover, this article includes discussion of techniques commonly used for evaluating the petroleum-based wood adhesives in terms of mechanical properties and penetration behavior, which are expected to be more widely applied to bio-based wood adhesives to better evaluate their prospect for wood composites application.

  15. Formability Evaluation of Sheet Metals Based on Global Strain Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Lin, Jianping; Min, Junying; Ye, You; Kang, Liugen

    2016-06-01

    According to the conventional methods for formability evaluation, e.g., forming limit curve (FLC), limit dome height, and total elongation, inconsistent results are observed when comparing the formability of four advanced high-strength steels (AHSS) with an ultimate tensile strength grade of 1000 MPa. The strain distribution analysis with the aid of digital image correlation technique shows that different uniform deformation capabilities of sheet metals under the same loading conditions are responsible for this inconsistency. In addition, metallurgical analysis suggests that inhomogeneous microstructure distribution and phase transformation during deformation in some materials play important roles in the uniform deformation capability of sheet metal. Limit strains on the commonly used FLC only relate to the major and minor strains of local deforming elements associated with the onset of necking. However, the formability of a sheet metal component is determined by the strain magnitudes of all deforming elements involved during the forming process. Hence, the formability evaluation of sheet metals from a global aspect is more applicable for practical engineering. A new method based on two indices (i.e., which represent global formability and uniform deformation capability, respectively) is proposed to evaluate the formability of sheet metals based on global strain distribution. The formability and evolution of deformation uniformity of the investigated AHSS at different stress states are studied with this new method. Compared with other formability evaluation methods, the new method is demonstrated to be more appropriate for practical engineering, and it is applicable to both in-plane and out-of-plane deformation. Additionally, the global formability of sheet metals can be more comprehensively understood with this new method.

  16. Evaluating conducting network based transparent electrodes from geometrical considerations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Ankush [Chemistry and Physics of Materials Unit, Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research, 560064 Bangalore (India); Kulkarni, G. U., E-mail: guk@cens.res.in [Centre for Nano and Soft Matter Sciences, 560013 Bangalore (India)

    2016-01-07

    Conducting nanowire networks have been developed as viable alternative to existing indium tin oxide based transparent electrode (TE). The nature of electrical conduction and process optimization for electrodes have gained much from the theoretical models based on percolation transport using Monte Carlo approach and applying Kirchhoff's law on individual junctions and loops. While most of the literature work pertaining to theoretical analysis is focussed on networks obtained from conducting rods (mostly considering only junction resistance), hardly any attention has been paid to those made using template based methods, wherein the structure of network is neither similar to network obtained from conducting rods nor similar to well periodic geometry. Here, we have attempted an analytical treatment based on geometrical arguments and applied image analysis on practical networks to gain deeper insight into conducting networked structure particularly in relation to sheet resistance and transmittance. Many literature examples reporting networks with straight or curvilinear wires with distributions in wire width and length have been analysed by treating the networks as two dimensional graphs and evaluating the sheet resistance based on wire density and wire width. The sheet resistance values from our analysis compare well with the experimental values. Our analysis on various examples has revealed that low sheet resistance is achieved with high wire density and compactness with straight rather than curvilinear wires and with narrower wire width distribution. Similarly, higher transmittance for given sheet resistance is possible with narrower wire width but of higher thickness, minimal curvilinearity, and maximum connectivity. For the purpose of evaluating active fraction of the network, the algorithm was made to distinguish and quantify current carrying backbone regions as against regions containing only dangling or isolated wires. The treatment can be helpful in

  17. Combining risk-management and computational approaches for trustworthiness evaluation of socio-technical systems

    OpenAIRE

    Gol Mohammadi, N.; Bandyszak, T.; Goldsteen, A.; Kalogiros, C.; Weyer, T.; Moffie, M.; Nasser, B.; Surridge, M

    2015-01-01

    The analysis of existing software evaluation techniques reveals the need for evidence-based evaluation of systems’ trustworthiness. This paper aims at evaluating trustworthiness of socio-technical systems during design-time. Our approach combines two existing evaluation techniques: a computa-tional approach and a risk management approach. The risk-based approach identifies threats to trustworthiness on an abstract level. Computational ap-proaches are applied to evaluate the expected end-to-en...

  18. Design Principles, Implementation And Evaluation For Inquiry-Based Astronomy:

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzgerald, Michael

    2015-09-01

    This thesis is situated in the context of an Australian high school level astronomy intervention project which aimed to enable students to undertake real science with professional grade 2-metre class telescopes. The thesis explores the context and background within which the project was situated and the main blocking factors preventing successful implementation culminating in an outline of the education design used in, and the evaluation of, the project. This work has illustrated that with careful design and sufficient teacher training and support, inquiry-based astronomy can feasibly be undertaken in the high-school classroom.

  19. The Evidence-Based Evaluation of Iron Deficiency Anemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hempel, Eliana V; Bollard, Edward R

    2016-09-01

    Anemia is a prevalent disease with multiple possible etiologies and resultant complications. Iron deficiency anemia is a common cause of anemia and is typically due to insufficient intake, poor absorption, or overt or occult blood loss. Distinguishing iron deficiency from other causes of anemia is integral to initiating the appropriate treatment. In addition, identifying the underlying cause of iron deficiency is also necessary to help guide management of these patients. We review the key components to an evidence-based, cost-conscious evaluation of suspected iron deficiency anemia.

  20. A freshwater biodiversity hotspot under pressure - assessing threats and identifying conservation needs for ancient Lake Ohrid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostoski, G.; Albrecht, C.; Trajanovski, S.; Wilke, T.

    2010-12-01

    Immediate conservation measures for world-wide freshwater resources are of eminent importance. This is particularly true for so-called ancient lakes. While these lakes are famous for being evolutionary theatres, often displaying an extraordinarily high degree of biodiversity and endemism, in many cases these biota are also experiencing extreme anthropogenic impact. Lake Ohrid, a major European biodiversity hotspot situated in a trans-frontier setting on the Balkans, is a prime example for a lake with a magnitude of narrow range endemic taxa that are under increasing anthropogenic pressure. Unfortunately, evidence for a "creeping biodiversity crisis" has accumulated over the last decades, and major socio-political changes have gone along with human-mediated environmental changes. Based on field surveys, monitoring data, published records, and expert interviews, we aimed to (1) assess threats to Lake Ohrids' (endemic) biodiversity, (2) summarize existing conservation activities and strategies, and (3) outline future conservation needs for Lake Ohrid. We compiled threats to both specific taxa (and in cases to particular species) as well as to the lake ecosystems itself. Major conservation concerns identified for Lake Ohrid are: (1) watershed impacts, (2) agriculture and forestry, (3) tourism and population growth, (4) non-indigenous species, (5) habitat alteration or loss, (6) unsustainable exploitation of fisheries, and (7) global climate change. Among the major (well-known) threats with high impact are nutrient input (particularly of phosphorus), habitat conversion and silt load. Other threats are potentially of high impact but less well known. Such threats include pollution with hazardous substances (from sources such as mines, former industries, agriculture) or climate change. We review and discuss institutional responsibilities, environmental monitoring and ecosystem management, existing parks and reserves, biodiversity and species measures, international

  1. Stereotype threat among black and white women in health care settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdou, Cleopatra M; Fingerhut, Adam W

    2014-07-01

    The first of its kind, the present experiment applied stereotype threat-the threat of being judged by or confirming negative group-based stereotypes-to the health sciences. Black and White women (N = 162) engaged in a virtual health care situation. In the experimental condition, one's ethnic identity and negative stereotypes of Black women specifically were made salient. As predicted, Black women in the stereotype threat condition who were strongly identified as Black (in terms of having explored what their ethnic identity means to them and the role it plays in their lives) reported significantly greater anxiety while waiting to see the doctor in the virtual health care setting than all other women. It is hypothesized that stereotype threat experienced in health care settings is one overlooked social barrier contributing to disparities in health care utilization and broader health disparities among Black women.

  2. Genetic algorithm-based evaluation of spatial straightness error

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    崔长彩; 车仁生; 黄庆成; 叶东; 陈刚

    2003-01-01

    A genetic algorithm ( GA ) -based approach is proposed to evaluate the straightness error of spatial lines. According to the mathematical definition of spatial straightness, a verification model is established for straightness error, and the fitness function of GA is then given and the implementation techniques of the proposed algorithm is discussed in detail. The implementation techniques include real number encoding, adaptive variable range choosing, roulette wheel and elitist combination selection strategies, heuristic crossover and single point mutation schemes etc. An application example is quoted to validate the proposed algorithm. The computation result shows that the GA-based approach is a superior nonlinear parallel optimization method. The performance of the evolution population can be improved through genetic operations such as reproduction, crossover and mutation until the optimum goal of the minimum zone solution is obtained. The quality of the solution is better and the efficiency of computation is higher than other methods.

  3. Exergoeconomic evaluation of a KRW-based IGCC power plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsatsaronis, G.; Lin, L.; Tawfik, T.; Gallaspy, D. T.

    1994-04-01

    In a study supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, several design configurations of Kellogg-Rust-Westinghouse (KRW)-based Integrated Gasification-Combined-Cycle (IGCC) power plants were developed. One of these configurations was analyzed from the exergoeconomic (thermoeconomic) viewpoint. This design configuration uses an air-blown KRW gasifier, hot gas cleanup, and two General Electric MS7001F advanced combustion turbines. Operation at three different gasification temperatures was considered. The detailed exergoeconomic evaluation identified several changes for improving the cost effectiveness of this IGCC design configuration. These changes include the following: decreasing the gasifier operating temperature, enhancing the high-pressure steam generation in the gasification island, improving the efficiency of the steam cycle, and redesigning the entire heat exchanger network. Based on the cost information supplied by the M. W. Kellogg Company, an attempt was made to calculate the economically optimal exergetic efficiency for some of the most important plant components.

  4. Naval submarine base Kings Bay and Bangor soil evaluations.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holcomb, David Joseph; Patteson, Raymond; Wesenberg, Donald L.; Attaway, Stephen W.

    2004-08-01

    This report provides soil evaluation and characterization testing for the submarine bases at Kings Bay, Georgia, and Bangor, Washington, using triaxial testing at high confining pressures with different moisture contents. In general, the samples from the Bangor and Kings Bay sites appeared to be stronger than a previously used reference soil. Assuming the samples of the material were representative of the material found at the sites, they should be adequate for use in the planned construction. Since soils can vary greatly over even a small site, a soil specification for the construction contractor would be needed to insure that soil variations found at the site would meet or exceed the requirements. A suggested specification for the Bangor and Kings Bay soils was presented based on information gathered from references plus data obtained from this study, which could be used as a basis for design by the construction contractor.

  5. Web service reputation evaluation based on QoS measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Haiteng; Shao, Zhiqing; Zheng, Hong; Zhai, Jie

    2014-01-01

    In the early service transactions, quality of service (QoS) information was published by service provider which was not always true and credible. For better verification the trust of the QoS information was provided by the Web service. In this paper, the factual QoS running data are collected by our WS-QoS measurement tool; based on these objectivity data, an algorithm compares the difference of the offered and measured quality data of the service and gives the similarity, and then a reputation evaluation method computes the reputation level of the Web service based on the similarity. The initial implementation and experiment with three Web services' example show that this approach is feasible and these values can act as the references for subsequent consumers to select the service.

  6. Ecological evaluation of Beijing economy based on emergy indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, M. M.; Zhou, J. B.; Chen, B.; Yang, Z. F.; Ji, X.; Zhang, L. X.; Chen, G. Q.

    2009-05-01

    An integrated ecological evaluation of the Beijing economy was presented in the paper based on the emergy accounting with the data in 2004. Through calculating environmental and economic inputs within and outside the Beijing economy, this paper discusses the Beijing's resource structure, economic situation and trade status based on a series of emergy indicators. Through the comparison of the systematic indicators of Beijing with those of the selected Chinese cities, the general status of the Beijing economy in China is identified. The results also show that most indicators of Beijing are located at middle levels among the selected Chinese cities. Particularly, the environmental impacts, expressed by the ratio of waste to the renewable emergy, and the ratio of waste to the total emergy use, are 84.2 and 0.26, respectively in Beijing in 2004, which indicate that the Beijing economy is greatly reliant on the imported intensive fuels, goods and services with high empower density and environmental loading.

  7. Evaluation of the integrated community based home care model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LR Uys

    2001-09-01

    Full Text Available In 1999-2000 the Integrated Community-Based Home Care model for the care of people with AIDS in communities were implemented in seven sites across the country. The post-implementation evaluation showed that most respondents felt that the model could be replicated if a functioning and informed network including all partners, and a strong management team were in place. The effects of the project were mainly positive for all stakeholders (hospice, clinic, hospital, PWA and their carers, professionals and other community members. Hospitals and community- based services became more aware of and involved in the needs of PWA and felt that the model enabled them to address these needs. PWA and their carers felt supported and respected.

  8. Wavelet-based deconvolution of ultrasonic signals in nondestructive evaluation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HERRERA Roberto Henry; OROZCO Rubén; RODRIGUEZ Manuel

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, the inverse problem of reconstructing reflectivity function of a medium is examined within a blind deconvolution framework. The ultrasound pulse is estimated using higher-order statistics, and Wiener filter is used to obtain the ultrasonic reflectivity function through wavelet-based models. A new approach to the parameter estimation of the inverse filtering step is proposed in the nondestructive evaluation field, which is based on the theory of Fourier-Wavelet regularized deconvolution (ForWaRD). This new approach can be viewed as a solution to the open problem of adaptation of the ForWaRD framework to perform the convolution kernel estimation and deconvolution interdependently. The results indicate stable solutions of the estimated pulse and an improvement in the radio-frequency (RF) signal taking into account its signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and axial resolution. Simulations and experiments showed that the proposed approach can provide robust and optimal estimates of the reflectivity function.

  9. Antimicrobial salicylaldehyde Schiff bases: synthesis, characterization and evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeel-Sharif, Hafiz Muhammad; Ahmed, Dildar; Mir, Hira

    2015-03-01

    As the pathogens soon develop resistance to the existing antibiotics, the demand for new and more effective anti-microbial agents is a continuous phenomenon. In this paper we are reporting synthesis and spectral data of eight Schiff bases of salicylaldehyde with different amines, and evaluation of their anti-microbial activities against different bacterial strains. The bases were synthesized by reflux method, and their structures were determined based FT-IR, (1)H-NMR, (13)C-NMR and Mass spectrometric data. The Schiff bases synthesized included 2-{[(Z)-(2-hydroxyphenyl) methylidene] amino}benzoicacid (SB1), 4-{[(Z)-(2-hydroxyphenyl) methylidene] amino} benzoic acid (SB2),2-[(naphthalene-2-ylimino)methyl] phenol(SB3),2-2'-[benzene-1,4-diylbis(nitrilomethylylidene)]diphenol (SB4), 2-2'-[benzene-1,2-diylbis (nitrile-(E)-methylylidene)]diphenol (SB5), 2-[(2-phenylhydrazineylidene)methyl]phenol (SB6), 2-2'-[ethene-1,2-diylbis(iminomethanediyl)]diphenol (SB7) and 2-[(Z)-(phenylimino)methyl]phenol (SB8). The anti-microbial activities of synthesized Schiff bases were determined in terms of zones of inhibition and minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs). All the bases showed moderate to good activities against all the tested microorganisms. The MICs of most compounds were 100-200βg/mL against different microorganisms. However, it was 50βg/mL for SB1 against P. aeruginosa (1), SB3 against P. aurantiaca, P. aeruginosa (1), E. coli (2), S. typhi (2) and C. freundii, SB4against E. coli (2), S. typhi (1) and S. maltophilia, SB5 against K. pneumoniae and S. typhi (2), SB6 against P. aeruginosa (3) and C. freundii, SB7 against E. cloacae and A. lipoferum, and SB8 against E. coli (2). Considerably active bases may prove to be potential candidates for future antibiotic drugs.

  10. Threat perception bias and anxiety among Chinese school children and adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Weili; Daleiden, Eric; Lu, Shou-En

    2007-01-01

    This study evaluated the relationship between threat perception bias and anxiety among children and adolescents in China. A sample of 1,004 elementary, middle and high school students aged 9 to 19 years listened to stories containing themes of generalized anxiety, social anxiety and separation anxiety in either an ambiguous or non-ambiguous context. The story content included topics such as upset stomach, teacher-student interaction, and parents who are late to return home. Multiple threat perception indices were derived from children's responses. Children's level of anxiety was assessed by means of self-report questionnaires and parental reports. Higher levels of anxiety were related to higher frequencies of threat perception and interpretation, lower thresholds to detect threat and more negative feelings and cognitions. Age and gender were also related to some indices of threat perception bias. Threat perception bias was related to anxious symptomatology in general and was not content specific to particular anxiety disorders. The findings were consistent with studies conducted in Western culture and suggest that cognitive processing theories of childhood anxiety may generalize beyond Western society.

  11. Measurement-Based Performance Evaluation of Advanced MIMO Transceiver Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trautwein, Uwe; Schneider, Christian; Thomä, Reiner

    2005-12-01

    This paper describes the methodology and the results of performance investigations on a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) transceiver scheme for frequency-selective radio channels. The method relies on offline simulations and employs real-time MIMO channel sounder measurement data to ensure a realistic channel modeling. Thus it can be classified in between the performance evaluation using some predefined channel models and the evaluation of a prototype hardware in field experiments. New aspects for the simulation setup are discussed, which are frequently ignored when using simpler model-based evaluations. Example simulations are provided for an iterative ("turbo") MIMO equalizer concept. The dependency of the achievable bit error rate performance on the propagation characteristics and on the variation in some system design parameters is shown, whereas the antenna constellation is of particular concern for MIMO systems. Although in many of the considered constellations turbo MIMO equalization appears feasible in real field scenarios, there exist cases with poor performance as well, indicating that in practical applications link adaptation of the transmitter and receiver processing to the environment is necessary.

  12. Measurement-Based Performance Evaluation of Advanced MIMO Transceiver Designs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schneider Christian

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the methodology and the results of performance investigations on a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO transceiver scheme for frequency-selective radio channels. The method relies on offline simulations and employs real-time MIMO channel sounder measurement data to ensure a realistic channel modeling. Thus it can be classified in between the performance evaluation using some predefined channel models and the evaluation of a prototype hardware in field experiments. New aspects for the simulation setup are discussed, which are frequently ignored when using simpler model-based evaluations. Example simulations are provided for an iterative ("turbo" MIMO equalizer concept. The dependency of the achievable bit error rate performance on the propagation characteristics and on the variation in some system design parameters is shown, whereas the antenna constellation is of particular concern for MIMO systems. Although in many of the considered constellations turbo MIMO equalization appears feasible in real field scenarios, there exist cases with poor performance as well, indicating that in practical applications link adaptation of the transmitter and receiver processing to the environment is necessary.

  13. Entropy-Based Credit Evaluation for Mobile Telephone Customers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Zong-Chang

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The arrears problem puzzled most mobile communication corporations in China. In information theory, the Shannon entropy is a measure of the uncertainty in a signal or random event. Motivated by entropy theory especially the Shannon Entropy, in this study, one called customer information entropy is defined and proposed to credit evaluation for arrearage customers of cellular telephone. The proposed customer information entropy is based on customer’s behavior attributes. Arrearage customers often include malevolent ones and non-malevolent ones. 52364 arrearage customers among a total number of 400000 ones in a mobile communication corporation are chosen for experiment. The proposed measure yields good results in its application of credit evaluation for 52364 arrearage customers in August and September. Its correct evaluation rates for malevolent and non-malevolent of the 52364 arrearage ones both are over 90.0%: among the 52364 arrearage customers, 90.75% of the non-malevolent ones, whose entropy changes is less than zero, while for the entropy changes of the malevolent ones, 95.36% is equal to zero and 1.57% is more than zero. The experimental results indicate that the entropy changes of the non-malevolent ones could be considered as negative and nonnegative for the malevolent ones. The proposed show its potential practicality.

  14. Persistent and novel threats to the biodiversity of Kazakhstan’s steppes and semi-deserts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamp, Johannes; Koshkin, Maxim A; Bragina, Tatyana M; Katzner, Todd Eli; Milner-Gulland, E J; Schreiber, Dagmar; Sheldon, Robert; Shmalenko, Alyona; Smelansky, Ilya; Terraube, Julien; Urazaliev, Ruslan

    2016-01-01

    Temperate grasslands have suffered disproportionally from conversion to cropland, degradation and fragmentation. A large proportion of the world’s remaining near-natural grassland is situated in Kazakhstan. We aimed to assess current and emerging threats to steppe and semi-desert biodiversity in Kazakhstan and evaluate conservation research priorities. We conducted a horizon-scanning exercise among conservationists from academia and practice. We first compiled a list of 45 potential threats. These were then ranked by the survey participants according to their perceived severity, the need for research on them, and their novelty. The highest-ranked threats were related to changes in land use (leading to habitat loss and deterioration), direct persecution of wildlife, and rapid infrastructure development due to economic and population growth. Research needs were identified largely in the same areas, and the mean scores of threat severity and research need were highly correlated. Novel threats comprised habitat loss by photovoltaic and wind power stations, climate change and changes in agriculture such as the introduction of biofuels. However, novelty was not correlated with threat severity or research priority, suggesting that the most severe threats are the established ones. Important goals towards more effective steppe and semi-desert conservation in Kazakhstan include more cross-sector collaboration (e.g. by involving stakeholders in conservation and agriculture), greater allocation of funds to under-staffed areas (e.g. protected area management), better representativeness and complementarity in the protected area system and enhanced data collection for wildlife monitoring and threat assessments (including the use of citizen-science databases).

  15. Study of Math-based Stereotype Threat Faced by University Students II--Psychological Mechanism%大学生数学刻板印象威胁实验研究Ⅱ--心理机制分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐文明; 李晓东; 罗苏梅

    2013-01-01

    The primary goal of this research was to investigate the Psychological Mechanism of stereotype threat on Limitations of Working Memory. All dependent Variables were examined using 3 priming (Implicit versus Explicit versus no threat)×2 processing load (high, low)×2 retention duration (Length, Short).The study revealed the processing load affected Limitations of Working Memory, and retention duration had effect on Working Memory. The results of experiment also indicated in explicit stereotype activation effects women reported more anxiety on high processing load task, but less Self-handicapping than Other groups. However, in implicit stereotype activation effects women reported less anxiety on high processing load task, but more self-handicapping than other groups. The experiment Support hypotheses of dual process model for how explicit and implicit stereotype threat cues influence Working Memory through separate mechanisms.%通过实验考察刻板印象威胁影响个体的工作记忆容量的心理机制。实验采用3启动方式(外显启动,内隐启动,控制组)×2加工负荷(高负荷,低负荷)×2保持时间(长时间保持,短时间保持)3因素完全随机实验设计。结果发现,无论在外显组还是在内隐组,加工负荷对工作记忆容量的影响具有主效应,而保持时间主效应同样也显著。实验结果表明,外显高负荷组的女性报告更多的焦虑,却表现出较少的自我妨碍;内隐高负荷组的女性表现出更多的自我妨碍却报告更少的焦虑。因此,实验结果支持双加工模型,即内隐和外显刻板印象威胁通过不同的机制影响工作记忆。

  16. Evaluation of weather-based rice yield models in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudharsan, D.; Adinarayana, J.; Reddy, D. Raji; Sreenivas, G.; Ninomiya, S.; Hirafuji, M.; Kiura, T.; Tanaka, K.; Desai, U. B.; Merchant, S. N.

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to compare two different rice simulation models—standalone (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer [DSSAT]) and web based (SImulation Model for RIce-Weather relations [SIMRIW])—with agrometeorological data and agronomic parameters for estimation of rice crop production in southern semi-arid tropics of India. Studies were carried out on the BPT5204 rice variety to evaluate two crop simulation models. Long-term experiments were conducted in a research farm of Acharya N G Ranga Agricultural University (ANGRAU), Hyderabad, India. Initially, the results were obtained using 4 years (1994-1997) of data with weather parameters from a local weather station to evaluate DSSAT simulated results with observed values. Linear regression models used for the purpose showed a close relationship between DSSAT and observed yield. Subsequently, yield comparisons were also carried out with SIMRIW and DSSAT, and validated with actual observed values. Realizing the correlation coefficient values of SIMRIW simulation values in acceptable limits, further rice experiments in monsoon (Kharif) and post-monsoon (Rabi) agricultural seasons (2009, 2010 and 2011) were carried out with a location-specific distributed sensor network system. These proximal systems help to simulate dry weight, leaf area index and potential yield by the Java based SIMRIW on a daily/weekly/monthly/seasonal basis. These dynamic parameters are useful to the farming community for necessary decision making in a ubiquitous manner. However, SIMRIW requires fine tuning for better results/decision making.

  17. Evaluating competency to stand trial with evidence-based practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Richard; Johansson-Love, Jill

    2009-01-01

    Evaluations for competency to stand trial are distinguished from other areas of forensic consultation by their long history of standardized assessment beginning in the 1970s. As part of a special issue of the Journal on evidence-based forensic practice, this article examines three published competency measures: the MacArthur Competence Assessment Tool-Criminal Adjudication (MacCAT-CA), the Evaluation of Competency to Stand Trial-Revised (ECST-R), and the Competence Assessment for Standing Trial for Defendants with Mental Retardation (CAST-MR). Using the Daubert guidelines as a framework, we examined each competency measure regarding its relevance to the Dusky standard and its error and classification rates. The article acknowledges the past polarization of forensic practitioners on acceptance versus rejection of competency measures. It argues that no valuable information, be it clinical acumen or standardized data, should be systematically ignored. Consistent with the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law Practice Guideline, it recommends the integration of competency interview findings with other sources of data in rendering evidence-based competency determinations.

  18. A questionnaire based evaluation of teaching methods amongst MBBS students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muneshwar JN, Mirza Shiraz Baig, Zingade US, Khan ST

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The medical education and health care in India are facing serious challenges in content and competencies. Heightened focus on the quality of teaching in medical college has led to increased use of student surveys as a means of evaluating teaching. Objectives: A questionnaire based evaluation of 200 students (I MBBS & II MBBS about teaching methods was conducted at a Govt Medical College & Hospital, Aurangabad (MS with intake capacity of 150 students &established since 50 last years. Methods: 200 medical students of I MBBS & II MBBS voluntarily participated in the study. Based on teaching methods, an objective questionnaire paper was given to the participants to be solved in 1 hour. Results: As a teaching mode 59% of the students favored group discussion versus didactic lectures (14%. Almost 48% felt that those didactic lectures fail to create interest & motivation. Around 66% were aware of learning objectives. Conclusion: Strategies and futuristic plans need to be implemented so that medical education in India is innovative & creates motivation.

  19. MODEL-BASED PERFORMANCE EVALUATION APPROACH FOR MOBILE AGENT SYSTEMS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Xin; Mi Zhengkun; Meng Xudong

    2004-01-01

    Claimed as the next generation programming paradigm, mobile agent technology has attracted extensive interests in recent years. However, up to now, limited research efforts have been devoted to the performance study of mobile agent system and most of these researches focus on agent behavior analysis resulting in that models are hard to apply to mobile agent systems. To bridge the gap, a new performance evaluation model derived from operation mechanisms of mobile agent platforms is proposed. Details are discussed for the design of companion simulation software, which can provide the system performance such as response time of platform to mobile agent. Further investigation is followed on the determination of model parameters. Finally comparison is made between the model-based simulation results and measurement-based real performance of mobile agent systems. The results show that the proposed model and designed software are effective in evaluating performance characteristics of mobile agent systems. The proposed approach can also be considered as the basis of performance analysis for large systems composed of multiple mobile agent platforms.

  20. Evaluating Peptide Mass Fingerprinting-based Protein Identification

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Senthilkumar; Damodaran; Troy; D.; Wood; Priyadharsini; Nagarajan; Richard; A.; Rabin

    2007-01-01

    Identification of proteins by mass spectrometry (MS) is an essential step in pro- teomic studies and is typically accomplished by either peptide mass fingerprinting (PMF) or amino acid sequencing of the peptide. Although sequence information from MS/MS analysis can be used to validate PMF-based protein identification, it may not be practical when analyzing a large number of proteins and when high- throughput MS/MS instrumentation is not readily available. At present, a vast majority of proteomic studies employ PMF. However, there are huge disparities in criteria used to identify proteins using PMF. Therefore, to reduce incorrect protein identification using PMF, and also to increase confidence in PMF-based protein identification without accompanying MS/MS analysis, definitive guiding principles are essential. To this end, we propose a value-based scoring system that provides guidance on evaluating when PMF-based protein identification can be deemed sufficient without accompanying amino acid sequence data from MS/MS analysis.