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Sample records for based multiple risk

  1. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Gait initiation time is associated with the risk of multiple falls-A population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callisaya, Michele L; Blizzard, Leigh; Martin, Kara; Srikanth, Velandai K

    2016-09-01

    In a population-based study of older people to examine whether 1) overall gait initiation (GI) time or its components are associated with falls and 2) GI under dual-task is a stronger predictor of falls risk than under single-task. Participants aged 60-85 years were randomly selected from the electoral roll. GI was obtained with a force platform under both single and dual-task conditions. Falls were ascertained prospectively over a 12-month period. Log multinomial regression was used to examine the association between GI time (total and its components) and risk of single and multiple falls. Age, sex and physiological and cognitive falls risk factors were considered as confounders. The mean age of the sample (n=124) was 71.0 (SD 6.8) years and 58.9% (n=73) were male. Over 12 months 21.8% (n=27) of participants reported a single fall and 16.1% (n=20) reported multiple falls. Slower overall GI time under both single (RR all per 100ms 1.28, 95%CI 1.03, 1.58) and dual-task (RR 1.14, 95%CI 1.02, 1.27) was associated with increased risk of multiple, but not single falls (pfalls were also associated with slower time to first lateral movement under single-task (RR 1.90 95%CI 0.59, 1.51) and swing time under dual-task condition (RR 1.44 95%CI 1.08, 1.94). Slower GI time is associated with the risk of multiple falls independent of other risk factors, suggesting it could be used as part of a comprehensive falls assessment. Time to the first lateral movement under single-task may be the best measures of this risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Approach to proliferation risk assessment based on multiple objective analysis framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I. [Obninsk Institute for Nuclear Power Engineering of NNRU MEPhI (Russian Federation); Studgorodok 1, Obninsk, Kaluga region, 249030 (Russian Federation)

    2013-07-01

    The approach to the assessment of proliferation risk using the methods of multi-criteria decision making and multi-objective optimization is presented. The approach allows the taking into account of the specifics features of the national nuclear infrastructure, and possible proliferation strategies (motivations, intentions, and capabilities). 3 examples of applying the approach are shown. First, the approach has been used to evaluate the attractiveness of HEU (high enriched uranium)production scenarios at a clandestine enrichment facility using centrifuge enrichment technology. Secondly, the approach has been applied to assess the attractiveness of scenarios for undeclared production of plutonium or HEU by theft of materials circulating in nuclear fuel cycle facilities and thermal reactors. Thirdly, the approach has been used to perform a comparative analysis of the structures of developing nuclear power systems based on different types of nuclear fuel cycles, the analysis being based on indicators of proliferation risk.

  4. Approach to proliferation risk assessment based on multiple objective analysis framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I.

    2013-01-01

    The approach to the assessment of proliferation risk using the methods of multi-criteria decision making and multi-objective optimization is presented. The approach allows the taking into account of the specifics features of the national nuclear infrastructure, and possible proliferation strategies (motivations, intentions, and capabilities). 3 examples of applying the approach are shown. First, the approach has been used to evaluate the attractiveness of HEU (high enriched uranium)production scenarios at a clandestine enrichment facility using centrifuge enrichment technology. Secondly, the approach has been applied to assess the attractiveness of scenarios for undeclared production of plutonium or HEU by theft of materials circulating in nuclear fuel cycle facilities and thermal reactors. Thirdly, the approach has been used to perform a comparative analysis of the structures of developing nuclear power systems based on different types of nuclear fuel cycles, the analysis being based on indicators of proliferation risk

  5. Managing Multiple Risk Factors

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lollis, Charlie

    1998-01-01

    ...) contribute to the racial differences in cardiovascular risk and events among women. High levels of socioeconomic stress, higher dietary fat intake and sedentary lifestyle are more prevalent among black than white women...

  6. A diet based on multiple functional concepts improves cardiometabolic risk parameters in healthy subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tovar Juscelino

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Different foods can modulate cardiometabolic risk factors in persons already affected by metabolic alterations. The objective of this study was to assess, in healthy overweight individuals, the impact of a diet combining multiple functional concepts on risk markers associated with cardiometabolic diseases (CMD. Methods Fourty-four healthy women and men (50-73 y.o, BMI 25-33, fasting glycemia ≤ 6.1 mmol/L participated in a randomized crossover intervention comparing a multifunctional (active diet (AD with a control diet (CD devoid of the "active" components. Each diet was consumed during 4 wk with a 4 wk washout period. AD included the following functional concepts: low glycemic impact meals, antioxidant-rich foods, oily fish as source of long-chain omega-3 fatty acids, viscous dietary fibers, soybean and whole barley kernel products, almonds, stanols and a probiotic strain (Lactobacillus plantarum Heal19/DSM15313. Results Although the aim was to improve metabolic markers without promoting body weight loss, minor weight reductions were observed with both diets (0.9-1.8 ± 0.2%; P P P P = 0.0056, LDL/HDL (-27 ± 2%; P P 1c (-2 ± 0.4%; P = 0.0013, hs-CRP (-29 ± 9%; P = 0.0497 and systolic blood pressure (-8 ± 1%¸ P = 0.0123. The differences remained significant after adjustment for weight change. After AD, the Framingham cardiovascular risk estimate was 30 ± 4% (P P Conclusion The improved biomarker levels recorded in healthy individuals following the multifunctional regime suggest preventive potential of this dietary approach against CMD.

  7. A scenario-based modeling approach for emergency evacuation management and risk analysis under multiple uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lv, Y., E-mail: lvyying@hotmail.com [School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Huang, G.H., E-mail: huang@iseis.org [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Guo, L., E-mail: guoli8658@hotmail.com [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Li, Y.P., E-mail: yongping.li@iseis.org [MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy and Environmental Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); Dai, C., E-mail: daichao321@gmail.com [College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Wang, X.W., E-mail: wangxingwei0812@gamil.com [State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Sun, W., E-mail: sunwei@iseis.org [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada)

    2013-02-15

    Highlights: ► An interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming method is developed. ► It is useful for nuclear emergency management practices under uncertainties. ► It can schedule optimal routes with maximizing evacuees during a finite time. ► Scenario-based analysis enhances robustness in controlling system risk. ► The method will help to improve the capability of disaster responses. -- Abstract: Nuclear emergency evacuation is important to prevent radioactive harms by hazardous materials and to limit the accidents’ consequences; however, uncertainties are involved in the components and processes of such a management system. In the study, an interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming (IJIP) method is developed for emergency evacuation management under uncertainties. Optimization techniques of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and joint-probabilistic constrained (JPC) programming are incorporated into an integer linear programming framework, so that the approach can deal with uncertainties expressed as joint probability and interval values. The IJIP method can schedule the optimal routes to guarantee the maximum population evacuated away from the effected zone during a finite time. Furthermore, it can also facilitate post optimization analysis to enhance robustness in controlling system violation risk imposed on the joint-probabilistic constraints. The developed method has been applied to a case study of nuclear emergency management; meanwhile, a number of scenarios under different system conditions have been analyzed. It is indicated that the solutions are useful for evacuation management practices. The result of the IJIP method can not only help to raise the capability of disaster responses in a systematic manner, but also provide an insight into complex relationships among evacuation planning, resources utilizations, policy requirements and system risks.

  8. Smoldering multiple myeloma risk factors for progression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørrig, Rasmus; Klausen, Tobias W; Salomo, Morten

    2016-01-01

    Several risk scores for disease progression in Smoldering Multiple Myeloma (SMM) patients have been proposed, however, all have been developed using single center registries. To examine risk factors for time to progression (TTP) to Multiple Myeloma (MM) for SMM we analyzed a nationwide population......-based cohort of 321 newly diagnosed SMM patients registered within the Danish Multiple Myeloma Registry between 2005 and 2014. Significant univariable risk factors for TTP were selected for multivariable Cox regression analyses. We found that both an M-protein ≥ 30g/l and immunoparesis significantly influenced......-high risk of transformation to MM. Using only immunoparesis and M-protein ≥ 30g/l, we created a scoring system to identify low, intermediate and high risk SMM. This first population-based study of SMM patients confirms that an M-protein ≥ 30g/l and immunoparesis remain important risk factors for progression...

  9. Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios, analytical methods and new techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toma-Danila, Dragos; Florinela Manea, Elena; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    Bucharest, capital of Romania (with 1678000 inhabitants in 2011), is one of the most exposed big cities in Europe to seismic damage. The major earthquakes affecting the city have their origin in the Vrancea region. The Vrancea intermediate-depth source generates, statistically, 2-3 shocks with moment magnitude >7.0 per century. Although the focal distance is greater than 170 km, the historical records (from the 1838, 1894, 1908, 1940 and 1977 events) reveal severe effects in the Bucharest area, e.g. intensities IX (MSK) for the case of 1940 event. During the 1977 earthquake, 1420 people were killed and 33 large buildings collapsed. The nowadays building stock is vulnerable both due to construction (material, age) and soil conditions (high amplification, generated within the weak consolidated Quaternary deposits, their thickness is varying 250-500m throughout the city). A number of 373 old buildings, out of 2563, evaluated by experts are more likely to experience severe damage/collapse in the next major earthquake. The total number of residential buildings, in 2011, was 113900. In order to guide the mitigation measures, different studies tried to estimate the seismic risk of Bucharest, in terms of buildings, population or economic damage probability. Unfortunately, most of them were based on incomplete sets of data, whether regarding the hazard or the building stock in detail. However, during the DACEA Project, the National Institute for Earth Physics, together with the Technical University of Civil Engineering Bucharest and NORSAR Institute managed to compile a database for buildings in southern Romania (according to the 1999 census), with 48 associated capacity and fragility curves. Until now, the developed real-time estimation system was not implemented for Bucharest. This paper presents more than an adaptation of this system to Bucharest; first, we analyze the previous seismic risk studies, from a SWOT perspective. This reveals that most of the studies don't use

  10. Coffee and Green Tea Consumption and Subsequent Risk of Malignant Lymphoma and Multiple Myeloma in Japan: The Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ugai, Tomotaka; Matsuo, Keitaro; Sawada, Norie; Iwasaki, Motoki; Yamaji, Taiki; Shimazu, Taichi; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Inoue, Manami; Kanda, Yoshinobu; Tsugane, Shoichiro

    2017-08-01

    Background: The aim of this study was to investigate the association of coffee and green tea consumption and the risk of malignant lymphoma and multiple myeloma in a large-scale population-based cohort study in Japan. Methods: In this analysis, a total of 95,807 Japanese subjects (45,937 men and 49,870 women; ages 40-69 years at baseline) of the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study who completed a questionnaire about their coffee and green tea consumption were followed up until December 31, 2012, for an average of 18 years. HRs and 95% confidence intervals were estimated using a Cox regression model adjusted for potential confounders as a measure of association between the risk of malignant lymphoma and multiple myeloma associated with coffee and green tea consumption at baseline. Results: During the follow-up period, a total of 411 malignant lymphoma cases and 138 multiple myeloma cases were identified. Overall, our findings showed no significant association between coffee or green tea consumption and the risk of malignant lymphoma or multiple myeloma for both sexes. Conclusions: In this study, we observed no significant association between coffee or green tea consumption and the risk of malignant lymphoma or multiple myeloma. Impact: Our results do not support an association between coffee or green tea consumption and the risk of malignant lymphoma or multiple myeloma. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(8); 1352-6. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

  11. Reproductive History and Risk of Multiple Sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, N. M.; Jorgensen, K. T.; Stenager, E.

    2011-01-01

    Background: It has been suggested that reproductive factors may be involved in the etiology of multiple sclerosis (MS). We studied associations of reproductive history with MS risk in a population-based setting. Methods: Using national databases, we established a cohort comprising 4.4 million...... Danish men and women born between 1935 and 1989 and alive in 1968 or later. We obtained information about their live-born children, pregnancy losses, pregnancy complications, and infertility diagnoses. MS cases in the cohort were identified through 2004 in the Danish Register of Multiple Sclerosis...

  12. Home-based exercise program and fall-risk reduction in older adults with multiple sclerosis: phase 1 randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sosnoff, Jacob J; Finlayson, Marcia; McAuley, Edward; Morrison, Steve; Motl, Robert W

    2014-03-01

    To determine the feasibility, safety, and efficacy of a home-based exercise intervention targeting fall risk in older adults with multiple sclerosis. A randomized controlled pilot trial. A home-based exercise program. Participants were randomly allocated to either a home-based exercise intervention group (n = 13) or a waiting list control group (n = 14). The exercise group completed exercises targeting lower muscle strength and balance three times a week for 12 weeks. The control group continued normal activity. Fall risk (Physiological Profile Assessment scores), balance (Berg Balance Scale), and walking testing prior to and immediately following the 12-week intervention. Each outcome measure was placed in an analysis of covariance with group as the between-subject factor and baseline values as the covariate. Effect sizes were calculated. Twelve participants from the control group and ten from the exercise group completed the study. There were no related adverse events. Fall risk was found to decrease in the exercise group following the intervention (1.1 SD 1.0 vs. 0.6 SD 0.6) while there was an increase in fall risk in the control group (1.9 SD 1.5 vs. 2.2 SD 1.9). Effect sizes for most outcomes were large (η(2) > 0.15). Home-based exercise was found to be feasible, safe, and effective for reducing physiological fall risk in older adults with multiple sclerosis. Our findings support the implementation of a larger trial to reduce fall risk in persons with multiple sclerosis.

  13. Genetic variants and multiple myeloma risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martino, Alessandro; Campa, Daniele; Jurczyszyn, Artur

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Genetic background plays a role in multiple myeloma susceptibility. Several single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) associated with genetic susceptibility to multiple myeloma were identified in the last years, but only a few of them were validated in independent studies. METHODS...... with multiple myeloma risk (P value range, 0.055-0.981), possibly with the exception of the SNP rs2227667 (SERPINE1) in women. CONCLUSIONS: We can exclude that the selected polymorphisms are major multiple myeloma risk factors. IMPACT: Independent validation studies are crucial to identify true genetic risk...

  14. Foraging Value, Risk Avoidance, and Multiple Control Signals: How the Anterior Cingulate Cortex Controls Value-based Decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Joshua W; Alexander, William H

    2017-10-01

    Recent work on the role of the ACC in cognition has focused on choice difficulty, action value, risk avoidance, conflict resolution, and the value of exerting control among other factors. A main underlying question is what are the output signals of ACC, and relatedly, what is their effect on downstream cognitive processes? Here we propose a model of how ACC influences cognitive processing in other brain regions that choose actions. The model builds on the earlier Predicted Response Outcome model and suggests that ACC learns to represent specifically the states in which the potential costs or risks of an action are high, on both short and long timescales. It then uses those cost signals as a basis to bias decisions to minimize losses while maximizing gains. The model simulates both proactive and reactive control signals and accounts for a variety of empirical findings regarding value-based decision-making.

  15. Multiplicative synergistic risk of hepatocellular carcinoma development among hepatitis B and C co-infected subjects in HBV endemic area: a community-based cohort study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Jin-Kyoung; Shin, Hai-Rim; Lim, Min Kyung; Cho, Heeyoun; Kim, Dong-Il; Jee, Youngmee; Yun, Haesun; Yoo, Keun-Young

    2012-01-01

    There has been limited study on the effect of infection with different hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes on the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in hepatitis B virus (HBV) endemic regions of Asia. Hazard ratios of HCC development were estimated for HBV and HCV co-infected subjects among a community-based prospective cohort. HCV genotype was determined in HCV RNA-positive samples. Incident HCC cases were identified through linkage to the cancer registry. HCC incidence was 79 per 100,000 person-years in the study population (50 incident cases among 6,694 individuals within 63,170 person-years with an average of 9.4 years of follow-up); seroprevalence of HBsAg and anti-HCV was 5.2% and 5.6%. Adjusted hazard ratios of HCC by HBsAg positivity and anti-HCV positivity were 13.3 (CI: 7.3-24.4) and 6.7 (CI: 3.6-12.6). HRs of HBV and HCV monoinfection, and HBV/HCV coinfection were 17.1 (CI: 8.4-34.8), 10.4 (CI: 4.9-22.1) and 115.0 (CI: 32.5-407.3). Multiplicative synergistic effect of HBV/HCV coinfection on HCC risk was also observed (synergy index: 4.5, CI: 1.3-15.5). Infection with HCV genotype 1 (HR: 29.7, CI: 13.6-46.8) and mixed infection with genotype 1 and 2 (HR: 68.7, CI: 16.4-288.4) significantly elevated HCC risk, much higher than HBV infection. The effect of differences in HCV genotype and the multiplicative synergistic effect of HBV/HCV coinfection on HCC risk shown in the present study underline the need for comprehensive identification of hepatitis infection status in order to prevent and control HCC in this HBV endemic area

  16. Risk based surveillance for vector-borne diseases in horses : combining multiple sources of evidence to improve decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Faverjon, Céline

    2017-01-01

    Emerging vector-borne diseases are a growing concern, especially for horse populations, which are at particular risk for disease spread. In general, horses travel widely and frequently and, despite the health and economic impacts of equine diseases, effective health regulations and biosecurity

  17. Sibship characteristics and risk of multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bager, P.; Nielsen, N.M.; Bihrmann, K.

    2006-01-01

    sibling, or exposure to younger siblings under 2 years of age and risk of MS later in life. There was no association of MS risk with multiple birth (vs. singleton birth) or with the age of the mother or father at birth. These results do not lend support to the hypothesis that number of older siblings......It has been hypothesized that age at infection with a common microbial agent may be associated with the risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). The authors addressed this hypothesis by using number of older siblings and other sibship characteristics as an approximation of age at exposure to common...... Sclerosis Register. The cohort of 1.9 million Danes was followed for 28.1 million person-years; during that time, 1,036 persons developed MS. Overall, there was no association between number of older siblings, number of younger siblings, total number of siblings, age distance from the nearest younger...

  18. Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guixian Dong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

  19. Risk of cataract and glaucoma in patients with multiple sclerosis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marloes Bazelier; Tjeerd van Staa; Bernard Uitdehaag; Sigrid Mueller-Schotte; Hubert Leufkens; Frank de Vries

    2012-01-01

    The aim of the study was to evaluate whether multiple sclerosis (MS) is associated with risk of cataract or glaucoma. We conducted a population-based cohort study utilizing the UK General Practice Research Database (1987–2009) linked to the national hospital registry of England (1997–2008). Incident

  20. The risk of fracture in incident multiple sclerosis patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bazelier, Marloes T; Bentzen, Joan; Vestergaard, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) may be at increased risk of fractures owing to osteoporosis and falling.......Patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) may be at increased risk of fractures owing to osteoporosis and falling....

  1. Risk evaluation and monitoring in multiple sclerosis therapeutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clanet, Michel C; Wolinsky, Jerry S; Ashton, Raymond J; Hartung, Hans-Peter; Reingold, Stephen C

    2014-09-01

    Risk for multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapies (DMT) must be assessed on an ongoing basis. Early concerns regarding the first-approved DMTs for MS have been mitigated, but recently licensed therapies have been linked to possibly greater risks. The objective of this review is to discuss risk assessment in MS therapeutics based on an international workshop and comprehensive literature search and recommend strategies for risk assessment/monitoring. Assessment and perception of therapeutic risks vary between patients, doctors and regulators. Acceptability of risk depends on the magnitude of risk and the demonstrated clinical benefits of any agent. Safety signals must be distinguishable from chance occurrences in a clinical trial and in long-term use of medications. Post-marketing research is crucial for assessing longer-term safety in large patient cohorts. Reporting of adverse events is becoming more proactive, allowing more rapid identification of risks. Communication about therapeutic risks and their relationship to clinical benefit must involve patients in shared decision making. It is difficult to produce a general risk-assessment algorithm for all MS therapies. Specific algorithms are required for each DMT in every treated-patient population. New and evolving risks must be evaluated and communicated rapidly to allow patients and physicians to be well informed and able to share treatment decisions. © The Author(s) 2013.

  2. Effectiveness of a Web-Based Computer-Tailored Multiple-Lifestyle Intervention for People Interested in Reducing their Cardiovascular Risk: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storm, Vera; Dörenkämper, Julia; Reinwand, Dominique Alexandra; Wienert, Julian; De Vries, Hein; Lippke, Sonia

    2016-04-11

    Web-based computer-tailored interventions for multiple health behaviors can improve the strength of behavior habits in people who want to reduce their cardiovascular risk. Nonetheless, few randomized controlled trials have tested this assumption to date. The study aim was to test an 8-week Web-based computer-tailored intervention designed to improve habit strength for physical activity and fruit and vegetable consumption among people who want to reduce their cardiovascular risk. In a randomized controlled design, self-reported changes in perceived habit strength, self-efficacy, and planning across different domains of physical activity as well as fruit and vegetable consumption were evaluated. This study was a randomized controlled trial involving an intervention group (n=403) and a waiting control group (n=387). Web-based data collection was performed in Germany and the Netherlands during 2013-2015. The intervention content was based on the Health Action Process Approach and involved personalized feedback on lifestyle behaviors, which indicated whether participants complied with behavioral guidelines for physical activity and fruit and vegetable consumption. There were three Web-based assessments: baseline (T0, N=790), a posttest 8 weeks after the baseline (T1, n=206), and a follow-up 3 months after the baseline (T2, n=121). Data analysis was conducted by analyzing variances and structural equation analysis. Significant group by time interactions revealed superior treatment effects for the intervention group, with substantially higher increases in self-reported habit strength for physical activity (F1,199=7.71, P=.006, Cohen's d=0.37) and fruit and vegetable consumption (F1,199=7.71, P=.006, Cohen's d=0.30) at posttest T1 for the intervention group. Mediation analyses yielded behavior-specific sequential mediator effects for T1 planning and T1 self-efficacy between the intervention and habit strength at follow-up T2 (fruit and vegetable consumption: beta=0.12, 95

  3. Risk based modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, O.J.V.; Baker, A.E.

    1993-01-01

    Risk based analysis is a tool becoming available to both engineers and managers to aid decision making concerning plant matters such as In-Service Inspection (ISI). In order to develop a risk based method, some form of Structural Reliability Risk Assessment (SRRA) needs to be performed to provide a probability of failure ranking for all sites around the plant. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can then be carried out to combine these possible events with the capability of plant safety systems and procedures, to establish the consequences of failure for the sites. In this way the probability of failures are converted into a risk based ranking which can be used to assist the process of deciding which sites should be included in an ISI programme. This paper reviews the technique and typical results of a risk based ranking assessment carried out for nuclear power plant pipework. (author)

  4. Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

    2016-10-01

    Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

  5. Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

    2016-10-26

    Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

  6. Comparison of EHR-based diagnosis documentation locations to a gold standard for risk stratification in patients with multiple chronic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Shelby; Wagner, Jesse; Lupulescu-Mann, Nicoleta; Ramsey, Katrina; Cohen, Aaron; Graven, Peter; Weiskopf, Nicole G; Dorr, David A

    2017-08-02

    To measure variation among four different Electronic Health Record (EHR) system documentation locations versus 'gold standard' manual chart review for risk stratification in patients with multiple chronic illnesses. Adults seen in primary care with EHR evidence of at least one of 13 conditions were included. EHRs were manually reviewed to determine presence of active diagnoses, and risk scores were calculated using three different methodologies and five EHR documentation locations. Claims data were used to assess cost and utilization for the following year. Descriptive and diagnostic statistics were calculated for each EHR location. Criterion validity testing compared the gold standard verified diagnoses versus other EHR locations and risk scores in predicting future cost and utilization. Nine hundred patients had 2,179 probable diagnoses. About 70% of the diagnoses from the EHR were verified by gold standard. For a subset of patients having baseline and prediction year data (n=750), modeling showed that the gold standard was the best predictor of outcomes on average for a subset of patients that had these data. However, combining all data sources together had nearly equivalent performance for prediction as the gold standard. EHR data locations were inaccurate 30% of the time, leading to improvement in overall modeling from a gold standard from chart review for individual diagnoses. However, the impact on identification of the highest risk patients was minor, and combining data from different EHR locations was equivalent to gold standard performance. The reviewer's ability to identify a diagnosis as correct was influenced by a variety of factors, including completeness, temporality, and perceived accuracy of chart data.

  7. Reproduction and the risk of multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Magyari, Melinda; Koch-Henriksen, Nils Iørgen; Pfleger, Claudia Christina

    2013-01-01

    The incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Denmark has doubled in women since 1970, whereas it has been almost unchanged in men.......The incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Denmark has doubled in women since 1970, whereas it has been almost unchanged in men....

  8. A risk-adapted approach is beneficial in the management of bilateral femoral shaft fractures in multiple trauma patients: an analysis based on the trauma registry of the German Trauma Society.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhausen, Eva; Lefering, Rolf; Tjardes, Thorsten; Neugebauer, Edmund A M; Bouillon, Bertil; Rixen, Dieter

    2014-05-01

    Today, there is a trend toward damage-control orthopedics (DCO) in the management of multiple trauma patients with long bone fractures. However, there is no widely accepted concept. A risk-adapted approach seems to result in low acute morbidity and mortality. Multiple trauma patients with bilateral femoral shaft fractures (FSFs) are considered to be more severely injured. The objective of this study was to validate the risk-adapted approach in the management of multiple trauma patients with bilateral FSF. Data analysis is based on the trauma registry of the German Trauma Society (1993-2008, n = 42,248). Multiple trauma patients with bilateral FSF were analyzed in subgroups according to the type of primary operative strategy. Outcome parameters were mortality and major complications as (multiple) organ failure and sepsis. A total of 379 patients with bilateral FSF were divided into four groups as follows: (1) no operation (8.4%), (2) bilateral temporary external fixation (DCO) (50.9%), bilateral primary definitive osteosynthesis (early total care [ETC]) (25.1%), and primary definitive osteosynthesis of one FSF and DCO contralaterally (mixed) (15.6%). Compared with the ETC group, the DCO group was more severely injured. The incidence of (multiple) organ failure and mortality rates were higher in the DCO group but without significance. Adjusted for injury severity, there was no significant difference of mortality rates between DCO and ETC. Injury severity and mortality rates were significantly increased in the no-operation group. The mixed group was similar to the ETC group regarding injury severity and outcome. In Germany, both DCO and ETC are practiced in multiple trauma patients with bilateral FSF so far. The unstable or potentially unstable patient is reasonably treated with DCO. The clearly stable patient is reasonably treated with nailing. When in doubt, the patient is probably not totally stable, and the safest precaution may be to use DCO as a risk

  9. Multiple zone power forwards. A value at risk framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demers, Jean-Guy

    2009-01-01

    Over the 1990s, deregulated power markets in New-England provided zones with fluctuating spot prices. Such prices have a notoriously high volatility, owing to the difficulty of storing electrical energy and the delays needed to adjust generation levels. In this context, forward contracts have become increasingly popular and understanding their dynamic is a problem facing many market players. This paper proposes a parsimonious parametric model, based on the price series of all n-month forward contracts (n = 1,2,3..), encompassing multiple zones. The model is then used for value at risk forecasts, which are backtested and compared with the ones in use by the risk management unit of an important electricity producer. Extensions to include natural gas and power-relevant oil-based future markets are discussed. (author)

  10. The risk of multiple sclerosis in bereaved parents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, J; Johansen, C; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2004-01-01

    Previous studies have suggested that psychological stress may play a role in the risk of multiple sclerosis (MS), but the evidence is very limited.......Previous studies have suggested that psychological stress may play a role in the risk of multiple sclerosis (MS), but the evidence is very limited....

  11. The risk of multiple sclerosis in nurses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stenager, Egon; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Koch-Henriksen, Nils

    2003-01-01

    The incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS) in nurses during the period 1980-1996 was calculated in a nationwide study. The cohort consisted of 69,428 nurses, 2185 men and 67,243 women. Sixty (two men and 58 women) with definite MS were observed, whereas 69.3 were expected. We found no significant...

  12. Volumetry based biomarker speed of growth: Quantifying the change of total tumor volume in whole-body magnetic resonance imaging over time improves risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wennmann, Markus; Kintzelé, Laurent; Piraud, Marie; Menze, Bjoern H; Hielscher, Thomas; Hofmanninger, Johannes; Wagner, Barbara; Kauczor, Hans-Ulrich; Merz, Maximilian; Hillengass, Jens; Langs, Georg; Weber, Marc-André

    2018-05-18

    The purpose of this study was to improve risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients, introducing new 3D-volumetry based imaging biomarkers derived from whole-body MRI. Two-hundred twenty whole-body MRIs from 63 patients with smoldering multiple myeloma were retrospectively analyzed and all focal lesions >5mm were manually segmented for volume quantification. The imaging biomarkers total tumor volume, speed of growth (development of the total tumor volume over time), number of focal lesions, development of the number of focal lesions over time and the recent imaging biomarker '>1 focal lesion' of the International Myeloma Working Group were compared, taking 2-year progression rate, sensitivity and false positive rate into account. Speed of growth, using a cutoff of 114mm 3 /month, was able to isolate a high-risk group with a 2-year progression rate of 82.5%. Additionally, it showed by far the highest sensitivity in this study and in comparison to other biomarkers in the literature, detecting 63.2% of patients who progress within 2 years. Furthermore, its false positive rate (8.7%) was much lower compared to the recent imaging biomarker '>1 focal lesion' of the International Myeloma Working Group. Therefore, speed of growth is the preferable imaging biomarker for risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients.

  13. Synthesizing Risk from Summary Evidence Across Multiple Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrier, Ian; Colditz, Graham A; Steele, Russell J

    2018-07-01

    Although meta-analyses provide summary effect estimates that help advise patient care, patients often want to compare their overall health to the general population. The Harvard Cancer Risk Index was published in 2004 and uses risk ratio estimates and prevalence estimates from original studies across many risk factors to provide an answer to this question. However, the published version of the formula only uses dichotomous risk factors and its derivation was not provided. The objective of this brief report was to provide the derivation of a more general form of the equation that allows the incorporation of risk factors with three or more levels.

  14. Risk interrelationship among multiple primary tumors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safi, Mohammed; Sun, Xiuhua; Wang, Lifen; Zhang, Xinwei; Song, Jicheng; Ameen, Mohammed

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Rationale: Along with advanced management in oncology, great progress has been recently achieved in the studies of multiple primary tumors. Several reports have studied the coexistence between lymphoma and either renal cell carcinoma (RCC) or Warthin tumor. However, the level of coexistence between these cases remains unclear due to the absence of a distinct link between them. Patient concerns: We present a unique case of multiple primary tumors (lymphoma, RCC, and Warthin tumor) in an 80-year-old man and a review of the literature on the coexistence of RCC with lymphoma and lymphoma with Warthin tumor. Diagnosis: With a history of RCC, the patient had a freely movable lump under his left ear, and the pathological report indicated Hodgkin lymphoma and Warthin tumor. Intervention: RCC and Warthin tumor of the patient were surgically treated, followed by 2 cycles (14 days per cycle) of Epirubicin 40 mg day 1, Bleomycin 8 mg day 1, Vincristine 2 mg day 1, and Dacarbazine 500 mg day 1. The chemotherapy protocol was then changed to Epirubicin 40 mg day 1, Vincristine 2 mg day 1, and Dacarbazine 500 mg day 1 for 7 cycles. Outcomes: After the last day of chemotherapy, the patient showed a complete response. Lessons: To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to report a case of multiple primary tumors with a complete response. For their early detection, favorable prognosis, and correlation identification, we suggest a transitive relation between these coexisting tumors. Therefore, similar studies should be conducted. PMID:29642151

  15. Cesarean section and offspring's risk of multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Nete M; Bager, Peter; Stenager, Egon

    2013-01-01

    Apart from a recent study reporting a 2- to 3-fold increased risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) among women and men who were delivered by Cesarean section (C-section), little attention has been given to the possible association between mode of delivery and the risk of MS.......Apart from a recent study reporting a 2- to 3-fold increased risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) among women and men who were delivered by Cesarean section (C-section), little attention has been given to the possible association between mode of delivery and the risk of MS....

  16. Risk-based safety indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the following issues: The objectives of the risk-based indicator programme. The characteristics of the risk-based indicators. The objectives of risk-based safety indicators - in monitoring safety; in PSA applications. What indicators? How to produce the risk based indicators? PSA requirements

  17. Multiple Sex Partner and Risk Behaviour Among Secondary School ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Tanzania is realizing increase in adolescents engaged in multiple sex partner behaviour and premarital sex. The objective of this study was to assess the awareness of multiple sex partner behaviour and risk factors among secondary school students in Moshi, Tanzania. Anonymously, questionnaires were completed by 360 ...

  18. Infectious mononucleosis and multiple sclerosis - Updated review on associated risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheik-Ali, Sharaf

    2017-05-01

    There has been substantial evidence accumulating on the role of infectious mononucleosis (IM) and the subsequent risk of obtaining Multiple Sclerosis (MS). Up to date studies not previously explored were reviewed by the author to further clarify the association. Medline and Web of Science were searched with no time constraints for articles exploring an association between Multiple Sclerosis and Infectious Mononucleosis. 24 articles were found, totalling 1063 cases and 13,227 cohort/controls. 23/24 (96%) articles reported a significant association of Infectious Mononucleosis on the risk of subsequent multiple sclerosis. Overall, new literature on IM and risk of MS categorically supports the association. Future work should focus on other risk factors such as age and gender on IM and subsequent risk of MS. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. The risk of venous thromboembolism in patients with multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peeters, P J H L; Bazelier, M T; Uitdehaag, B M J

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), disability and autoinflammatory processes may result in an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the risk of VTE associated with MS. METHODS: We conducted an observational-cohort study within the Clinical Practice...

  20. Risk of Multiple Sclerosis in Patients with Psoriasis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Egeberg, Alexander; Mallbris, Lotus; Gislason, Gunnar Hilmar

    2016-01-01

    Psoriasis and multiple sclerosis (MS) are inflammatory disorders with similarities in genetic risk variants and inflammatory pathways. Limited evidence is available on the relationship between the two diseases. We therefore investigated the risk of incident (new-onset) MS in patients with mild...

  1. Risk Prediction Models for Other Cancers or Multiple Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing other multiple cancers over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  2. Childhood body mass index and multiple sclerosis risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munger, Kassandra L; Bentzen, Joan; Laursen, Bjarne

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Obesity in late adolescence has been associated with an increased risk of multiple sclerosis (MS); however, it is not known if body size in childhood is associated with MS risk. METHODS: Using a prospective design we examined whether body mass index (BMI) at ages 7-13 years...

  3. Relationship between single and multiple perpetrator rape perpetration in South Africa: A comparison of risk factors in a population-based sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    R, Jewkes; Y, Sikweyiya; K, Dunkle; R, Morrell

    2015-07-07

    Studies of rape of women seldom distinguish between men's participation in acts of single and multiple perpetrator rape. Multiple perpetrator rape (MPR) occurs globally with serious consequences for women. In South Africa it is a cultural practice with defined circumstances in which it commonly occurs. Prevention requires an understanding of whether it is a context specific intensification of single perpetrator rape, or a distinctly different practice of different men. This paper aims to address this question. We conducted a cross-sectional household study with a multi-stage, randomly selected sample of 1686 men aged 18-49 who completed a questionnaire administered using an Audio-enhanced Personal Digital Assistant. We attempted to fit an ordered logistic regression model for factors associated with rape perpetration. 27.6 % of men had raped and 8.8 % had perpetrated multiple perpetrator rape (MPR). Thus 31.9 % of men who had ever raped had done so with other perpetrators. An ordered regression model was fitted, showing that the same associated factors, albeit at higher prevalence, are associated with SPR and MPR. Multiple perpetrator rape appears as an intensified form of single perpetrator rape, rather than a different form of rape. Prevention approaches need to be mainstreamed among young men.

  4. Risk-based configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the following issues: The Configuration Control; The Risk-based Configuration Control (during power operation mode, and during shutdown mode). PSA requirements. Use of Risk-based Configuration Control System. Configuration Management (basic elements, benefits, information requirements)

  5. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  6. Obesity interacts with infectious mononucleosis in risk of multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedström, A K; Lima Bomfim, I; Hillert, J; Olsson, T; Alfredsson, L

    2015-03-01

    The possible interaction between adolescent obesity and past infectious mononucleosis (IM) was investigated with regard to multiple sclerosis (MS) risk. This report is based on two population-based case-control studies, one with incident cases (1780 cases, 3885 controls) and one with prevalent cases (4502 cases, 4039 controls). Subjects were categorized based on adolescent body mass index (BMI) and past IM and compared with regard to occurrence of MS by calculating odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) employing logistic regression. A potential interaction between adolescent BMI and past IM was evaluated by calculating the attributable proportion due to interaction. Regardless of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) status, a substantial interaction was observed between adolescent obesity and past IM with regard to MS risk. The interaction was most evident when IM after the age of 10 was considered (attributable proportion due to interaction 0.8, 95% CI 0.6-1.0 in the incident study, and attributable proportion due to interaction 0.7, 95% CI 0.5-1.0 in the prevalent study). In the incident study, the odds ratio of MS was 14.7 (95% CI 5.9-36.6) amongst subjects with adolescent obesity and past IM after the age of 10, compared with subjects with none of these exposures. The corresponding odds ratio in the prevalent study was 13.2 (95% CI 5.2-33.6). An obese state both impacts the cellular immune response to infections and induces a state of chronic immune-mediated inflammation which may contribute to explain our finding of an interaction between adolescent BMI and past IM. Measures taken against adolescent obesity may thus be a preventive strategy against MS. © 2014 The Authors. European Journal of Neurology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Academy of Neurology.

  7. Wavelet based multicarrier code division multiple access ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper presents the study on Wavelet transform based Multicarrier Code Division Multiple Access (MC-CDMA) system for a downlink wireless channel. The performance of the system is studied for Additive White Gaussian Noise Channel (AWGN) and slowly varying multipath channels. The bit error rate (BER) versus ...

  8. Experience with multiple control groups in a large population-based case-control study on genetic and environmental risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pomp, E R; Van Stralen, K J; Le Cessie, S; Vandenbroucke, J P; Rosendaal, F R; Doggen, C J M

    2010-07-01

    We discuss the analytic and practical considerations in a large case-control study that had two control groups; the first control group consisting of partners of patients and the second obtained by random digit dialling (RDD). As an example of the evaluation of a general lifestyle factor, we present body mass index (BMI). Both control groups had lower BMIs than the patients. The distribution in the partner controls was closer to that of the patients, likely due to similar lifestyles. A statistical approach was used to pool the results of both analyses, wherein partners were analyzed with a matched analysis, while RDDs were analyzed without matching. Even with a matched analysis, the odds ratio with partner controls remained closer to unity than with RDD controls, which is probably due to unmeasured confounders in the comparison with the random controls as well as intermediary factors. However, when studying injuries as a risk factor, the odds ratio remained higher with partner control subjects than with RRD control subjects, even after taking the matching into account. Finally we used factor V Leiden as an example of a genetic risk factor. The frequencies of factor V Leiden were identical in both control groups, indicating that for the analyses of this genetic risk factor the two control groups could be combined in a single unmatched analysis. In conclusion, the effect measures with the two control groups were in the same direction, and of the same order of magnitude. Moreover, it was not always the same control group that produced the higher or lower estimates, and a matched analysis did not remedy the differences. Our experience with the intricacies of dealing with two control groups may be useful to others when thinking about an optimal research design or the best statistical approach.

  9. Socioeconomic Factors in Childhood and the Risk of Multiple Sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, N. M.; Jorgensen, K. T.; Bager, P.

    2013-01-01

    In a national cohort comprising 1.5 million Danes born from 1966 to 1992, we studied the association between childhood socioeconomic status (SES) and the risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) from 1981 to 2007 using information about household income and parental educational levels at the persons 15th ...

  10. Class II HLA interactions modulate genetic risk for multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moutsianas, Loukas; Jostins, Luke; Beecham, Ashley H

    2015-01-01

    Association studies have greatly refined the understanding of how variation within the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes influences risk of multiple sclerosis. However, the extent to which major effects are modulated by interactions is poorly characterized. We analyzed high-density SNP data on 17...

  11. MICA: Multiple interval-based curve alignment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Martin; Kahle, Hans-Peter; Beck, Matthias; Bender, Bela Johannes; Spiecker, Heinrich; Backofen, Rolf

    2018-01-01

    MICA enables the automatic synchronization of discrete data curves. To this end, characteristic points of the curves' shapes are identified. These landmarks are used within a heuristic curve registration approach to align profile pairs by mapping similar characteristics onto each other. In combination with a progressive alignment scheme, this enables the computation of multiple curve alignments. Multiple curve alignments are needed to derive meaningful representative consensus data of measured time or data series. MICA was already successfully applied to generate representative profiles of tree growth data based on intra-annual wood density profiles or cell formation data. The MICA package provides a command-line and graphical user interface. The R interface enables the direct embedding of multiple curve alignment computation into larger analyses pipelines. Source code, binaries and documentation are freely available at https://github.com/BackofenLab/MICA

  12. Morphological characteristics associated with rupture risk of multiple intracranial aneurysms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guang-Xian; Liu, Lan-Lan; Wen, Li; Cao, Yun-Xing; Pei, Yu-Chun; Zhang, Dong

    2017-10-01

    To identify the morphological parameters that are related to intracranial aneurysms (IAs) rupture using a case-control model. A total of 107 patients with multiple IAs and aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage between August 2011 and February 2017 were enrolled in this study. Characteristics of IAs location, shape, neck width, perpendicular height, depth, maximum size, flow angle, parent vessel diameter (PVD), aspect ratio (AR) and size ratio (SR) were evaluated using CT angiography. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors associated with IAs rupture. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed on the final model, and the optimal thresholds were obtained. IAs located in the internal carotid artery (ICA) was associated with a negative risk of rupture, whereas AR, SR1 (height/PVD) and SR2 (depth/PVD) were associated with increased risk of rupture. When SR was calculated differently, the odds ratio values of these factors were also different. The receiver operating characteristic curve showed that AR, SR1 and SR2 had cut-off values of 1.01, 1.48 and 1.40, respectively. SR3 (maximum size/PVD) was not associated with IAs rupture. IAs located in the ICA are associated with a negative risk of rupture, while high AR (>1.01), SR1 (>1.48) or SR2 (>1.40) are risk factors for multiple IAs rupture. Copyright © 2017 Hainan Medical University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Chronic periodontitis with multiple risk factor syndrome: a case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimoe, Masayuki; Yamamoto, Tadashi; Iwamoto, Yoshihiro; Shiomi, Nobuyuki; Maeda, Hiroshi; Nishimura, Fusanori; Takashiba, Shogo

    2011-07-01

    Multiple risk factor syndrome is a clustering of cardiovascular risk factors, such as diabetes, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and obesity associated epidemiologically with insulin resistance. This report describes the clinical course of a patient suffering from severe periodontitis with multiple risk factor syndrome, and discusses the association between periodontal infection and systemic health. The patient had a history of type 2 diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension for over 10 years. At baseline, her hemoglobin A1 c was 8.1%. However, she had no diabetic complications except periodontitis. The IgG antibody titers against Porphyromonas gingivalis FDC 381 and SU63 were elevated above the mean of healthy subjects +2 standard deviations. Intensive periodontal treatment, including periodontal surgery, was performed to reduce periodontal infection and bacteremia. Her systemic and periodontal conditions were evaluated longitudinally for 10 years. Following periodontal treatment, antibody titers against Porphyromonas gingivalis and hemoglobin A1c values were significantly improved. The other clinical data and medication for her systemic condition also remained stable during supportive periodontal therapy. However, she developed myocardial infarction, and showed continuous deterioration of hemoglobin A1 c level and periodontitis. The long-term clustering of risk factors, such as diabetes, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and periodontitis, are associated with the development of myocardial infarction. Treatment of systemic conditions in combination with comprehensive periodontal treatment is important in management of patients with multiple risk factor syndrome.

  14. Safety from physical viewpoint: ''two-risk model in multiple risk problem''

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuz'Min, I.I.; Akimov, V.A.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: the problem of safety provision for people and environment within the framework of a certain socio-economic system (SES) as a problem of managing a great number of interacting risks characterizing numerous hazards (natural, manmade, social, economic once, etc.) inherent in the certain SES has been discussed. From the physical point of view, it can be considered a problem of interaction of many bodies which has no accurate mathematical solution even if the laws of interaction of this bodies are known. In physics, to solve this problem, an approach based on the reduction of the above-mentioned problem of the problem of two-body interaction which can be solved accurately in mathematics has been used. The report presents a similar approach to the problem of risk management in the SES. This approach includes the subdivision of numerous hazards inherent within the framework of the SES into two classes of hazards, so that each of the classes could be considered an integrated whole one, each of them being characterized by the appropriate risk. Consequently, problem of 'multiple-risk' management (i.e. the problem of many bodies, as represented in physics) can be reduced to the 'two-risk' management problem (that is, to the problem two-bodies). Within the framework of the two-risk model the optimization of costs to reduce the two kinds of risk, that is, the risk inherent in the SES as a whole, as well as the risk potentially provoked by lots of activities to be introduced in the SES economy has been described. The model has made it possible to formulate and prove the theorem of equilibrium in risk management. Using the theorem, a relatively simple and practically applicable procedure of optimizing the threshold costs to reduce diverse kinds of risk has been elaborated. The procedure provides to assess the minimum value of the cost that can be achieved regarding the socio-economic factors typical of the SES under discussion. The aimed

  15. Tehran Survey of Potential Risk Factors for Multiple Births

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza Omani Samani

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background The multiple pregnancy incidence is increasing worldwide. This increased incidence is concerning to the health care system. This study aims to determine the frequency of multiple pregnancy and identify factors that affect this frequency in Tehran, Iran. Materials and Methods This cross-sectional study included 5170 mothers in labor between July 6-21, 2015 from 103 hospitals with Obstetrics and Gynecology Wards. The questionnaire used in this study consisted of five parts: demographic characteristics; information related to pregnancy; information related to the infant; information regarding the multiple pregnancy; and information associated with infertility. We recruited 103 trained midwives to collect data related to the questionnaire from eligible participants through an interview and medical records review. Frequencies and odds ratios (OR for the association between multiple pregnancy and the selected characteristics (maternal age, economic status, history of multiple pregnancy in first-degree relatives, and reproductive history were computed by multiple logistic regression. Stata software, version 13 (Stata Corp, College Station, TX, USA was used for all statistical analyses. Results Multiple pregnancy had a prevalence of 1.48% [95% confidence interval (CI: 1.19-1.85]. After controlling for confounding variables, we observed a significant association between frequency of multiple pregnancy and mother’s age (OR=1.04, 95% CI: 1.001-1.09, P=0.044, assisted reproductive technique (ART, OR=6.11, 95% CI: 1.7- 21.97, P=0.006, and history of multiple pregnancy in the mother’s family (OR=5.49, 95% CI: 3.55-9.93, P=0.001. Conclusion The frequency of multiple pregnancy approximated results reported in previous studies in Iran. Based on the results, we observed significantly greater frequency of multiple pregnancy in older women, those with a history of ART, and a history of multiple pregnancy in the mother’s family compared to the other

  16. Risks of multiple sclerosis in relatives of patients in Flanders, Belgium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carton, H; Vlietinck, R; Debruyne, J; DeKeyser, J; DHooghe, MB; Loos, R; Medaer, R; Truyen, L; Yee, IML; Sadovnick, AD

    Objectives - To calculate age adjusted risks for multiple sclerosis in relatives of Flemish patients with multiple sclerosis. Methods - Lifetime risks were calculated using the maximum likelihood approach. Results - Vital information was obtained on 674 probands with multiple sclerosis in Flanders

  17. Prevalence and risk of Down syndrome in monozygotic and dizygotic multiple pregnancies in Europe: implications for prenatal screening

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boyle, B; Morris, J K; McConkey, R

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine risk of Down syndrome (DS) in multiple relative to singleton pregnancies, and compare prenatal diagnosis rates and pregnancy outcome. DESIGN: Population-based prevalence study based on EUROCAT congenital anomaly registries. SETTING: Eight European countries. POPULATION: 14...

  18. Neonatal vitamin D status and risk of multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munk Nielsen, Nete; Munger, Kassandra L; Koch-Henriksen, Nils

    2017-01-01

    study. Dried blood spots samples (DBSS) belonging to 521 patients with MS were identified in the Danish Newborn Screening Biobank. For every patient with MS, 1-2 controls with the same sex and birth date were retrieved from the Biobank (n = 972). Level of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) in the DBSS......OBJECTIVE: As previous research has suggested that exposure to vitamin D insufficiency in utero may have relevance for the risk of multiple sclerosis (MS), we aimed to examine the direct association between level of neonatal vitamin D and risk of MS. METHODS: We carried out a matched case-control...

  19. Risk of vertebral compression fractures in multiple myeloma patients

    OpenAIRE

    Anitha, D.; Thomas, Baum; Jan, Kirschke S.; Subburaj, Karupppasamy

    2017-01-01

    Abstract The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a finite element (FE) model to predict vertebral bone strength in vitro using multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) images in multiple myeloma (MM) patients, to serve as a complementing tool to assess fracture risk. In addition, it also aims to differentiate MM patients with and without vertebral compression fractures (VCFs) by performing FE analysis on vertebra segments (T1?L5) obtained from in vivo routine MDCT imaging scans....

  20. Multiple Sclerosis: associated cardiometabolic risks and impact of exercise therapy

    OpenAIRE

    Jacobs, Jasper

    2016-01-01

    Multiple sclerosis (MS) is characterized by complex heterogeneous symptoms, which often leads to a more sedentary lifestyle. This lifestyle increases the likelihood to develop secondary health problems, like cardiometabolic risk (CMR) profile. However, in other population these secondary health problems can be, partly, reversed by exercise therapy. We hypothesized that MS affects the CMR profile, but the outcome can be reversed following exercise therapy. Persons with MS and matched healthy c...

  1. Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

    OpenAIRE

    Goussen, Benoit Regis Marc; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

    2016-01-01

    Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing ...

  2. Risk-based safety indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sedlak, J.

    2001-12-01

    The report is structured as follows: 1. Risk-based safety indicators: Typology of risk-based indicators (RBIs); Tools for defining RBIs; Requirements for the PSA model; Data sources for RBIs; Types of risks monitored; RBIs and operational safety indicators; Feedback from operating experience; PSO model modification for RBIs; RBI categorization; RBI assessment; RBI applications; Suitable RBI applications. 2. Proposal for risk-based indicators: Acquiring information from operational experience; Method of acquiring safety relevance coefficients for the systems from a PSA model; Indicator definitions; On-line indicators. 3. Annex: Application of RBIs worldwide. (P.A.)

  3. A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Multiple Myeloma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, Karthik; Domike, Reuben; Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola; Blumenthal, Gideon M; Farrell, Ann; Pazdur, Richard; Woodcock, Janet

    2018-01-01

    Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analysis. In this work, a quantitative benefit-risk analysis approach captures regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat multiple myeloma (MM). MM assessments have been based on endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR) which are different than benefit-risk analysis based on overall survival (OS). Twenty-three FDA decisions on MM drugs submitted to FDA between 2003 and 2016 were identified and analyzed. The benefits and risks were quantified relative to comparators (typically the control arm of the clinical trial) to estimate whether the median benefit-risk was positive or negative. A sensitivity analysis was demonstrated using ixazomib to explore the magnitude of uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes were consistent and logical using this benefit-risk framework. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  4. Multiple transitions and HIV risk among orphaned Kenyan schoolgirls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mojola, Sanyu A

    2011-03-01

    Why are orphaned girls at particular risk of acquiring HIV infection? Using a transition-to-adulthood framework, this study employs qualitative data from Nyanza Province, Kenya, to explore pathways to HIV risk among orphaned and nonorphaned high-school girls. It shows how simultaneous processes such as leaving their parental home, negotiating financial access, and relationship transitions interact to produce disproportionate risk for orphaned girls. The role of financial provision and parental love in modifying girls' trajectories to risk are also explored. A testable theoretical model is proposed based on the qualitative findings, and policy implications are suggested.

  5. MULTIPLE TRANSITIONS AND HIV RISK AMONG AFRICAN SCHOOL GIRLS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mojola, Sanyu A

    2012-01-01

    Why are orphaned girls at particular risk of contracting HIV? Using a transition to adulthood framework, this paper uses qualitative data from Nyanza province, Kenya to explore pathways to HIV risk among orphaned and non-orphaned high school girls. I show how co-occurring processes such as residential transition out of the parental home, negotiating financial access and relationship transitions interact to produce disproportionate risk for orphan girls. I also explore the role of financial provision and parental love in modifying girls’ trajectories to risk. I propose a testable theoretical model based on the qualitative findings and suggest policy implications. PMID:21500699

  6. Young Adult and Usual Adult Body Mass Index and Multiple Myeloma Risk: A Pooled Analysis in the International Multiple Myeloma Consortium (IMMC).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birmann, Brenda M; Andreotti, Gabriella; De Roos, Anneclaire J; Camp, Nicola J; Chiu, Brian C H; Spinelli, John J; Becker, Nikolaus; Benhaim-Luzon, Véronique; Bhatti, Parveen; Boffetta, Paolo; Brennan, Paul; Brown, Elizabeth E; Cocco, Pierluigi; Costas, Laura; Cozen, Wendy; de Sanjosé, Silvia; Foretová, Lenka; Giles, Graham G; Maynadié, Marc; Moysich, Kirsten; Nieters, Alexandra; Staines, Anthony; Tricot, Guido; Weisenburger, Dennis; Zhang, Yawei; Baris, Dalsu; Purdue, Mark P

    2017-06-01

    Background: Multiple myeloma risk increases with higher adult body mass index (BMI). Emerging evidence also supports an association of young adult BMI with multiple myeloma. We undertook a pooled analysis of eight case-control studies to further evaluate anthropometric multiple myeloma risk factors, including young adult BMI. Methods: We conducted multivariable logistic regression analysis of usual adult anthropometric measures of 2,318 multiple myeloma cases and 9,609 controls, and of young adult BMI (age 25 or 30 years) for 1,164 cases and 3,629 controls. Results: In the pooled sample, multiple myeloma risk was positively associated with usual adult BMI; risk increased 9% per 5-kg/m 2 increase in BMI [OR, 1.09; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.04-1.14; P = 0.007]. We observed significant heterogeneity by study design ( P = 0.04), noting the BMI-multiple myeloma association only for population-based studies ( P trend = 0.0003). Young adult BMI was also positively associated with multiple myeloma (per 5-kg/m 2 ; OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.3; P = 0.0002). Furthermore, we observed strong evidence of interaction between younger and usual adult BMI ( P interaction adult BMI may increase multiple myeloma risk and suggest that healthy BMI maintenance throughout life may confer an added benefit of multiple myeloma prevention. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(6); 876-85. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

  7. Physical and social environment and the risk of multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Magyari, Melinda; Koch-Henriksen, Nils; Pfleger, Claudia C.

    2014-01-01

    , or social environmental influence the risk of MS differently in women than in men. Methods: The cohort consists of all 1403 patients (939 women, 464 men) identified through Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry aged 1-55 of years at clinical onset between 2000 and 2004, and up to 25 control persons for each...... case, matched by sex, year of birth and residential municipality. The same cohort was previously used to investigate the influence of the reproductive factors on the risk of MS. Results: By linkage to Danish population registers we found a slight albeit statistically significant excess for 6 female MS...... patients who had been employed in agriculture: OR 3.52; 95% CI 1.38-9.00, p=0.008 (0.046 when corrected for multiple significance) and a trend for exposure to outdoor work in 12 : OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.06-3.55, p=0.03 (0.09 when corrected for multiple significance), but the numbers of cases were small...

  8. Effects of Comprehensive, Multiple High-Risk Behaviors Prevention Program on High School Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collier, Crystal

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this mixed methods study was to examine the effect of a multiple high-risk behaviors prevention program applied comprehensively throughout an entire school-system involving universal, selective, and indicated levels of students at a local private high school during a 4-year period. The prevention program was created based upon the…

  9. Modular risk analysis for assessing multiple waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whelan, G.; Buck, J.W.; Nazarali, A.

    1994-06-01

    Human-health impacts, especially to the surrounding public, are extremely difficult to assess at installations that contain multiple waste sites and a variety of mixed-waste constituents (e.g., organic, inorganic, and radioactive). These assessments must address different constituents, multiple waste sites, multiple release patterns, different transport pathways (i.e., groundwater, surface water, air, and overland soil), different receptor types and locations, various times of interest, population distributions, land-use patterns, baseline assessments, a variety of exposure scenarios, etc. Although the process is complex, two of the most important difficulties to overcome are associated with (1) establishing an approach that allows for modifying the source term, transport, or exposure component as an individual module without having to re-evaluate the entire installation-wide assessment (i.e., all modules simultaneously), and (2) displaying and communicating the results in an understandable and useable maimer to interested parties. An integrated, physics-based, compartmentalized approach, which is coupled to a Geographical Information System (GIS), captures the regional health impacts associated with multiple waste sites (e.g., hundreds to thousands of waste sites) at locations within and surrounding the installation. Utilizing a modular/GIS-based approach overcomes difficulties in (1) analyzing a wide variety of scenarios for multiple waste sites, and (2) communicating results from a complex human-health-impact analysis by capturing the essence of the assessment in a relatively elegant manner, so the meaning of the results can be quickly conveyed to all who review them

  10. Class II HLA interactions modulate genetic risk for multiple sclerosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilthey, Alexander T; Xifara, Dionysia K; Ban, Maria; Shah, Tejas S; Patsopoulos, Nikolaos A; Alfredsson, Lars; Anderson, Carl A; Attfield, Katherine E; Baranzini, Sergio E; Barrett, Jeffrey; Binder, Thomas M C; Booth, David; Buck, Dorothea; Celius, Elisabeth G; Cotsapas, Chris; D’Alfonso, Sandra; Dendrou, Calliope A; Donnelly, Peter; Dubois, Bénédicte; Fontaine, Bertrand; Fugger, Lars; Goris, An; Gourraud, Pierre-Antoine; Graetz, Christiane; Hemmer, Bernhard; Hillert, Jan; Kockum, Ingrid; Leslie, Stephen; Lill, Christina M; Martinelli-Boneschi, Filippo; Oksenberg, Jorge R; Olsson, Tomas; Oturai, Annette; Saarela, Janna; Søndergaard, Helle Bach; Spurkland, Anne; Taylor, Bruce; Winkelmann, Juliane; Zipp, Frauke; Haines, Jonathan L; Pericak-Vance, Margaret A; Spencer, Chris C A; Stewart, Graeme; Hafler, David A; Ivinson, Adrian J; Harbo, Hanne F; Hauser, Stephen L; De Jager, Philip L; Compston, Alastair; McCauley, Jacob L; Sawcer, Stephen; McVean, Gil

    2016-01-01

    Association studies have greatly refined the understanding of how variation within the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes influences risk of multiple sclerosis. However, the extent to which major effects are modulated by interactions is poorly characterized. We analyzed high-density SNP data on 17,465 cases and 30,385 controls from 11 cohorts of European ancestry, in combination with imputation of classical HLA alleles, to build a high-resolution map of HLA genetic risk and assess the evidence for interactions involving classical HLA alleles. Among new and previously identified class II risk alleles (HLA-DRB1*15:01, HLA-DRB1*13:03, HLA-DRB1*03:01, HLA-DRB1*08:01 and HLA-DQB1*03:02) and class I protective alleles (HLA-A*02:01, HLA-B*44:02, HLA-B*38:01 and HLA-B*55:01), we find evidence for two interactions involving pairs of class II alleles: HLA-DQA1*01:01–HLA-DRB1*15:01 and HLA-DQB1*03:01–HLA-DQB1*03:02. We find no evidence for interactions between classical HLA alleles and non-HLA risk-associated variants and estimate a minimal effect of polygenic epistasis in modulating major risk alleles. PMID:26343388

  11. Risk-based decisionmaking (Panel)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, T.H.

    1995-12-31

    By means of a panel discussion and extensive audience interaction, explore the current challenges and progress to date in applying risk considerations to decisionmaking related to low-level waste. This topic is especially timely because of the proposed legislation pertaining to risk-based decisionmaking and because of the increased emphasis placed on radiological performance assessments of low-level waste disposal.

  12. Adaptation of a Counseling Intervention to Address Multiple Cancer Risk Factors among Overweight/Obese Latino Smokers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, Yessenia; Fernández, Maria E.; Strong, Larkin L.; Stewart, Diana W.; Krasny, Sarah; Hernandez Robles, Eden; Heredia, Natalia; Spears, Claire A.; Correa-Fernández, Virmarie; Eakin, Elizabeth; Resnicow, Ken; Basen-Engquist, Karen; Wetter, David W.

    2015-01-01

    More than 60% of cancer-related deaths in the United States are attributable to tobacco use, poor nutrition, and physical inactivity, and these risk factors tend to cluster together. Thus, strategies for cancer risk reduction would benefit from addressing multiple health risk behaviors. We adapted an evidence-based intervention grounded in social…

  13. Safety concerns and risk management of multiple sclerosis therapies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soelberg Sorensen, P.

    2017-01-01

    Currently, more than ten drugs have been approved for treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS). Newer treatments may be more effective, but have less favorable safety record. Interferon-β preparations and glatiramer acetate treatment require frequent subcutaneous or intramuscular...... disease activity can choose between dimethyl fumarate and teriflunomide or the “old injectable.” Patients with very active MS may choose a more effective drug as the initial treatment. In case of side effects on one drug, switch to another drug can be tried. Suboptimal effect of the first drug indicates...... escalation to a highly efficacious drug. A favorable benefit-risk balance can be maintained by appropriate patient selection and appropriate risk management on therapy. New treatments will within the coming 1-2 years change our current treatment algorithm for relapsing-remitting MS....

  14. Financial crisis and market risk premium: Identifying multiple structural changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan J. García-Machado

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns is, by now, well-documented in the literature. However, in this article we examine the long-run relationship between stock and bond markets returns over the period from 1991:11 to 2009:11, using Bai and Perron’s multiple structural change approach. Findings indicate that while the market risk premium is usually positive, periods with negative values appear only in three periods (1991:1-1993:2, 1998:3-2002:2 and from 2007:1-2009:11 leading to changes in the GDP evolution. Thereby, the study shows the presence of structural breaks in the Spanish market risk premium and its relationship with business cycle. These findings contribute to a better understanding of close linkages between the financial markets and the macroeconomic variables such as GDP. Implications of the study and suggestions for future research are provided.

  15. Multiple microprocessor based nuclear reactor power monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, P.S.; Ethridge, C.D.

    1979-01-01

    The reactor power monitor is a portable multiple-microprocessor controlled data acquisition device being built for the International Atomic Energy Association. Its function is to measure and record the hourly integrated operating thermal power level of a nuclear reactor for the purpose of detecting unannounced plutonium production. The monitor consists of a 3 He proportional neutron detector, a write-only cassette tape drive and control electronics based on two INTEL 8748 microprocessors. The reactor power monitor operates from house power supplied by the plant operator, but has eight hours of battery backup to cover power interruptions. Both the hourly power levels and any line power interruptions are recorded on tape and in memory. Intermediate dumps from the memory to a data terminal or strip chart recorder can be performed without interrupting data collection

  16. Multiple factors explain injury risk in adolescent elite athletes: Applying a biopsychosocial perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Rosen, P; Frohm, A; Kottorp, A; Fridén, C; Heijne, A

    2017-12-01

    Many risk factors for injury are presented in the literature, few of those are however consistent and the majority is associated with adult and not adolescent elite athletes. The aim was to identify risk factors for injury in adolescent elite athletes, by applying a biopsychosocial approach. A total of 496 adolescent elite athletes (age range 15-19), participating in 16 different sports, were monitored repeatedly over 52 weeks using a valid questionnaire about injuries, training exposure, sleep, stress, nutrition, and competence-based self-esteem. Univariate and multiple Cox regression analyses were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) for risk factors for first reported injury. The main finding was that an increase in training load, training intensity, and at the same time decreasing the sleep volume resulted in a higher risk for injury compared to no change in these variables (HR 2.25, 95% CI, 1.46-3.45, Pself-esteem increased the hazard for injury with 1.02 (HR 95% CI, 1.00-1.04, P=.01). Based on the multiple Cox regression analysis, an athlete having the identified risk factors (Risk Index, competence-based self-esteem), with an average competence-based self-esteem score, had more than a threefold increased risk for injury (HR 3.35), compared to an athlete with a low competence-based self-esteem and no change in sleep or training volume. Our findings confirm injury occurrence as a result of multiple risk factors interacting in complex ways. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Covariance among multiple health risk behaviors in adolescents.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kayla de la Haye

    Full Text Available In a diverse group of early adolescents, this study explores the co-occurrence of a broad range of health risk behaviors: alcohol, cigarette, and marijuana use; physical inactivity; sedentary computing/gaming; and the consumption of low-nutrient energy-dense food. We tested differences in the associations of unhealthy behaviors over time, and by gender, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status.Participants were 8360 students from 16 middle schools in California (50% female; 52% Hispanic, 17% Asian, 16% White, and 15% Black/multiethnic/other. Behaviors were measured with surveys in Spring 2010 and Spring 2011. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to assess if an underlying factor accounted for the covariance of multiple behaviors, and composite reliability methods were used to determine the degree to which behaviors were related.The measured behaviors were explained by two moderately correlated factors: a 'substance use risk factor' and an 'unhealthy eating and sedentary factor'. Physical inactivity did not reflect the latent factors as expected. There were few differences in the associations among these behaviors over time or by demographic characteristics.Two distinct, yet related groups of health compromising behaviors were identified that could be jointly targeted in multiple health behavior change interventions among early adolescents of diverse backgrounds.

  18. Longitudinal patterns and predictors of multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents : the TRAILS study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, Leenke; de Winter, Andrea F.; Verhulst, Frank C.; Vollebergh, Wilma A.M.; Reijneveld, Sijmen A.

    BACKGROUND: Most studies on multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents have cross-sectionally studied a limited number of health behaviors or determinants. PURPOSE: To examine the prevalence, longitudinal patterns and predictors of individual and multiple health risk behaviors among

  19. Latino risk-adjusted mortality in the men screened for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Avis J; Eberly, Lynn E; Neaton, James D; Smith, George Davey

    2005-09-15

    Latinos are now the largest minority in the United States, but their distinctive health needs and mortality patterns remain poorly understood. Proportional hazards regressions were used to compare Latino versus White risk- and income-adjusted mortality over 25 years' follow-up from 5,846 Latino and 300,647 White men screened for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial. Men were aged 35-57 years and residing in 14 states when screened in 1973-1975. Data on coronary heart disease risk factors, self-reported race/ethnicity, and home addresses were obtained at baseline; income was estimated by linking addresses to census data. Mortality follow-up through 1999 was obtained using the National Death Index. The fully adjusted Latino/White hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 0.82 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.77, 0.87), based on 1,085 Latino and 73,807 White deaths; this pattern prevailed over time and across states (thus, likely across Latino subgroups). Hazard ratios were significantly greater than one for stroke (hazard ratio = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.68), liver cancer (hazard ratio = 2.02, 95% CI: 1.21, 3.37), and infection (hazard ratio = 1.69, 95% CI: 1.24, 2.32). A substudy found only minor racial/ethnic differences in the quality of Social Security numbers, birth dates, soundex-adjusted names, and National Death Index searches. Results were not likely an artifact of return migration or incomplete mortality data.

  20. Child Maltreatment Among Singletons and Multiple Births in Japan: A Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokoyama, Yoshie; Oda, Terumi; Nagai, Noriyo; Sugimoto, Masako; Mizukami, Kenji

    2015-12-01

    The occurrence of multiple births has been recognized as a risk factor for child maltreatment. However, few population-based studies have examined the relationship between multiple births and child maltreatment. This study aimed to evaluate the degree of risk of child maltreatment among singletons and multiple births in Japan and to identify factors associated with increased risk. Using population-based data, we analyzed the database of records on child maltreatment and medical checkups for infants aged 1.5 years filed at Nishinomiya City Public Health Center between April 2007 and March 2011. To protect personal information, the data were transferred to anonymized electronic files for analysis. After adjusting by logistic regression for each associated factor and gestation number, multiples themselves were not associated with the risk of child maltreatment. However, compared with singletons, multiples had a significantly higher rate of risk factors for child maltreatment, including low birth weight and neural abnormality. Moreover, compared with mothers of singleton, mothers of twins had a significantly higher rate of poor health, which is a risk factor of child maltreatment. Multiples were not associated with the risk of child maltreatment. However, compared with singletons, multiples and their mothers had a significantly higher rate of risk factors of child maltreatment.

  1. Alpha-risk: a European project on the quantification of risks associated with multiple radiation exposures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurier, D.; Monchaux, G.; Tirmarche, M.; Darby, S.; Cardis, E.; Binks, K.; Hofmann, W.; Muirhead, C.

    2006-01-01

    The Alpha-Risk research project is being conducted within the Sixth European Framework Programme (EC-FP6, 2005 -2008). It aims to improve the quantification of risks associated with multiple exposures, taking into account the contribution of different radionuclides and external exposure using specific organ dose calculations. The Alpha-Risk Consortium involves 18 partners from 9 countries, and is coordinated by the IRSN. Its composition allows a multidisciplinary collaboration between researchers in epidemiology, dosimetry, statistics, modelling and risk assessment. Alpha-Risk brings together major epidemiological studies in Europe, which are able to evaluate long-term health effects of internal exposure from radionuclides. It includes large size cohort and case-control studies, with accurate registration of individual annual exposures: uranium miner studies, studies on lung cancer and indoor radon exposure, and studies of lung cancer and leukaemia among nuclear workers exposed to transuranic nuclides (mainly uranium and plutonium), for whom organ doses will be reconstructed individually. The contribution of experts in dosimetry will allow the calculation of organ doses in presence of multiple exposures (radon decay products, uranium dust and external gamma exposure). Expression of the risk per unit organ dose will make it possible to compare results with those from other populations exposed to external radiation. The multidisciplinary approach of Alpha-Risk promotes the development of coherent and improved methodological approaches regarding risk modelling. A specific work - package is dedicated to the integration of results and their use for risk assessment, especially for radon. Alpha-Risk will contribute to a better understanding of long-term health risks following chronic low doses from internal exposures. The project also has the great potential to help resolve major public health concerns about the effects of low and/or protracted exposures, especially

  2. STakeholder-Objective Risk Model (STORM): Determining the aggregated risk of multiple contaminant hazards in groundwater well catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzenhoefer, R.; Binning, P. J.; Nowak, W.

    2015-09-01

    Risk is often defined as the product of probability, vulnerability and value. Drinking water supply from groundwater abstraction is often at risk due to multiple hazardous land use activities in the well catchment. Each hazard might or might not introduce contaminants into the subsurface at any point in time, which then affects the pumped quality upon transport through the aquifer. In such situations, estimating the overall risk is not trivial, and three key questions emerge: (1) How to aggregate the impacts from different contaminants and spill locations to an overall, cumulative impact on the value at risk? (2) How to properly account for the stochastic nature of spill events when converting the aggregated impact to a risk estimate? (3) How will the overall risk and subsequent decision making depend on stakeholder objectives, where stakeholder objectives refer to the values at risk, risk attitudes and risk metrics that can vary between stakeholders. In this study, we provide a STakeholder-Objective Risk Model (STORM) for assessing the total aggregated risk. Or concept is a quantitative, probabilistic and modular framework for simulation-based risk estimation. It rests on the source-pathway-receptor concept, mass-discharge-based aggregation of stochastically occuring spill events, accounts for uncertainties in the involved flow and transport models through Monte Carlo simulation, and can address different stakeholder objectives. We illustrate the application of STORM in a numerical test case inspired by a German drinking water catchment. As one may expect, the results depend strongly on the chosen stakeholder objectives, but they are equally sensitive to different approaches for risk aggregation across different hazards, contaminant types, and over time.

  3. Biomedical risks of multiple lung lavages in beagle dogs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muggenburg, B.A.; Mauderly, J.L.; Slauson, D.O.; Halliwell, W.H.

    1976-01-01

    The biomedical risk of a series of 10 lung lavages was evaluated in 10 Beagle dogs. The dogs were divided into three groups: one group of six dogs was given 10 lung lavages over a 49-day period and sacrificed at 77 days of the study; the second group contained two dogs that were controls that were not treated, but sacrificed on day 77 of the study; and the third group contained two dogs that were control dogs that were sacrificed 56 days into the study. The dogs were evaluated by cardiopulmonary function tests, clinical studies, and studies of the tissues at sacrifice. No significant changes were detected in the cardiopulmonary function tests of the dogs in the study. Clinical studies revealed a very mild, transient reaction to some of the lavage procedures. The reaction was mainly mild, scattered, moist rales heard on auscultation of the chest and a slight rise in body temperature. A mild, scattered tissue reaction was also observed on histologic examination of selected lung tissues. The observed tissue reactions did not appear to be chronic, permanent or progressive. Results of this study indicate that multiple lung lavages carry little biomedical risk and that the primary risk is that associated with general anesthesia

  4. Risk management for sulfur dioxide abatement under multiple uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, C.; Sun, W.; Tan, Q.; Liu, Y.; Lu, W. T.; Guo, H. C.

    2016-03-01

    In this study, interval-parameter programming, two-stage stochastic programming (TSP), and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) were incorporated into a general optimization framework, leading to an interval-parameter CVaR-based two-stage programming (ICTP) method. The ICTP method had several advantages: (i) its objective function simultaneously took expected cost and risk cost into consideration, and also used discrete random variables and discrete intervals to reflect uncertain properties; (ii) it quantitatively evaluated the right tail of distributions of random variables which could better calculate the risk of violated environmental standards; (iii) it was useful for helping decision makers to analyze the trade-offs between cost and risk; and (iv) it was effective to penalize the second-stage costs, as well as to capture the notion of risk in stochastic programming. The developed model was applied to sulfur dioxide abatement in an air quality management system. The results indicated that the ICTP method could be used for generating a series of air quality management schemes under different risk-aversion levels, for identifying desired air quality management strategies for decision makers, and for considering a proper balance between system economy and environmental quality.

  5. Multiple sclerosis in women having children by multiple partners. A population-based study in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Basso, Olga; Campi, Rita; Frydenberg, Morten

    2004-01-01

    We investigated whether having children with multiple men is a risk factor for being diagnosed with multiple sclerosis (MS). We studied a cohort of 151,328 women, of whom 64,704 had different men fathering their children and 86,624 the same partner for all births. Women were included if they had ...

  6. Multiple Intelligences - Based Planning of EFL Classes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanan Shero Malo Zebari

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The present study aimed to set a plan for teaching EFL classes based on the identification of university students’ dominant multiple intelligences in EFL classes, and the differences in the types of intelligence between female and male students in terms of their gender. The problem the present study aimed to address is that the traditional concept that “one size fits all” is still adopted by many EFL teachers, and that EFL students’ differences and preferences are noticeably unheeded. It is believed that identifying students’ dominant intelligences is a sound remedial solution for such a problem before embarking on any teaching program. Moreover, getting students aware of their different types of intelligence will motivate and encourage them in the classroom. The researchers used a questionnaire as a research instrument for data collection.  The results arrived at showed that there were no significant differences in the types of intelligence between female and male students in terms of their gender, except for bodily- kinesthetic intelligence. They also showed that the dominant intelligences were ranked from the highest to the lowest as follows interpersonal, linguistic, spatial, logical-mathematical, bodily kinesthetic, intrapersonal, musical, and naturalistic.

  7. 77 FR 53059 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-30

    ...'' framework that includes (1) Risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk, and operational... default and credit quality migration risk for non-securitization credit products. With respect to... securitization positions, the revisions assign a specific risk- weighting factor based on the credit rating of a...

  8. 76 FR 1889 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-11

    ... ``three-pillar'' framework that includes (i) risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk... incremental risk capital requirement to capture default and credit quality migration risk for non... (advanced approaches rules) (collectively, the credit risk capital rules) \\8\\ by requiring any bank subject...

  9. STakeholder-Objective Risk Model (STORM): Determiningthe aggregated risk of multiple contaminant hazards in groundwater well catchments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enzenhoefer, R.; Binning, Philip John; Nowak, W.

    2015-01-01

    Risk is often defined as the product of probability, vulnerability and value. Drinking water supply from groundwater abstraction is often at risk due to multiple hazardous land use activities in the well catchment. Each hazard might or might not introduce contaminants into the subsurface at any......-pathway-receptor concept, mass-discharge-based aggregation of stochastically occuring spill events, accounts for uncertainties in the involved flow and transport models through Monte Carlo simulation, and can address different stakeholder objectives. We illustrate the application of STORM in a numerical test case inspired...

  10. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world-The Roskilde recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selck, Henriette; Adamsen, Peter B; Backhaus, Thomas; Banta, Gary T; Bruce, Peter K H; Burton, G Allen; Butts, Michael B; Boegh, Eva; Clague, John J; Dinh, Khuong V; Doorn, Neelke; Gunnarsson, Jonas S; Hauggaard-Nielsen, Henrik; Hazlerigg, Charles; Hunka, Agnieszka D; Jensen, John; Lin, Yan; Loureiro, Susana; Miraglia, Simona; Munns, Wayne R; Nadim, Farrokh; Palmqvist, Annemette; Rämö, Robert A; Seaby, Lauren P; Syberg, Kristian; Tangaa, Stine R; Thit, Amalie; Windfeld, Ronja; Zalewski, Maciej; Chapman, Peter M

    2017-01-01

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk-Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological context for assessments in human-modified systems; 8) assess risks and benefits to humans and the ecosystem and consider unintended consequences of management actions; 9) avoid excessive conservatism or possible underprotection resulting from sole reliance on binary, numerical benchmarks; and 10) develop adaptive risk-management and regulatory goals based on ranges of uncertainty. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:7-16. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  11. Risks of falls in subjects with multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cattaneo, Davide; De Nuzzo, Carmela; Fascia, Teresa; Macalli, Marco; Pisoni, Ivana; Cardini, Roldano

    2002-06-01

    To quantify fall risk among patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) and to report the importance of variables associated with falls. Retrospective case-control study design with a 2-group sample of convenience. A hospital and home settings in Italy. A convenience sample of 50 people with MS divided into 2 groups according to their reports of falls. Not applicable. Subjects were assessed with questionnaires for cognitive ability and were measured on their ability to maintain balance, to walk, and to perform daily life activities. Data regarding patients' strength, spasticity, and transfer skills impairment were also collected. No statistical differences were found between groups of fallers and nonfallers using variables pertaining to years after onset, age, gender, and Mini-Mental State Examination. Near statistically significant differences were found in activities of daily living and transfer skills (Pfall status: balance, ability to walk, and use of a cane (Pcane differed between fallers and nonfallers groups and the incidence of those variables can be used as a predictive model to quantify fall risk in patients suffering from MS. These findings emphasize the multifactorial nature of falls in this patient population. Assessment of different aspects of motor impairment and the accurate determination of factors contributing to falls are necessary for individual patient management and therapy and for the development of a prevention program for falls. Copyright 2002 by the American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine and the American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation

  12. Lung cancer risk from radon and smoking - additive or multiplicative effect?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomasek, L.

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the work is to evaluate the risk of lung cancer when combined radon and smoking exposure. Methodologically the evaluation is based on case and control study nested in two cohort studies, including 11,000 miners and 12,000 residents exposed to high concentrations of radon in homes. Radon exposure in individuals is complemented by information on smoking gained personally from them or from their relatives. The study is based on 1,073 cases of lung cancer among miners and 372 cases in population study. Control subjects were randomly selected in each study based on gender, year of birth and age achieved. The combined effect of smoking and radon is evaluated using the so-called geometric mixed models, whose special case is an additive or multiplicative model. The resulting model of the risk is closer to additive interaction (parameter of mixed model 0.2). The consequences of the model in the study of population are illustrated by estimates of lifetime risk in a hypothetical population of smokers and nonsmokers. Compared to the multiplicative risk model, the lifetime risk significantly increased according to the best geometric mixed model, especially in the population of non-smokers. (author)

  13. Fall risk and incidence reduction in high risk individuals with multiple sclerosis: a pilot randomized control trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sosnoff, Jacob J; Moon, Yaejin; Wajda, Douglas A; Finlayson, Marcia L; McAuley, Edward; Peterson, Elizabeth W; Morrison, Steve; Motl, Robert W

    2015-10-01

    To determine the feasibility of three fall prevention programs delivered over 12 weeks among individuals with multiple sclerosis: (A) a home-based exercise program targeting physiological risk factors; (B) an educational program targeting behavioral risk factors; and (C) a combined exercise-and-education program targeting both factors. Randomized controlled trial. Home-based training with assessments at research laboratory. A total of 103 individuals inquired about the investigation. After screening, 37 individuals with multiple sclerosis who had fallen in the last year and ranged in age from 45-75 years volunteered for the investigation. A total of 34 participants completed postassessment following the 12-week intervention. Participants were randomly assigned into one of four conditions: (1) wait-list control (n = 9); (2) home-based exercise (n = 11); (3) education (n = 9); or (4) a combined exercise and education (n = 8) group. Before and after the 12-week interventions, participants underwent a fall risk assessment as determined by the physiological profile assessment and provided information on their fall prevention behaviors as indexed by the Falls Prevention Strategy Survey. Participants completed falls diaries during the three-months postintervention. A total of 34 participants completed postintervention testing. Procedures and processes were found to be feasible. Overall, fall risk scores were lower in the exercise groups (1.15 SD 1.31) compared with the non-exercise groups (2.04 SD 1.04) following the intervention (p fall prevention behaviors (p > 0.05). Further examination of home-based exercise/education programs for reducing falls in individuals with multiple sclerosis is warranted. A total of 108 participants would be needed in a larger randomized controlled trial.ClinicalTrials.org #NCT01956227. © The Author(s) 2014.

  14. Diagnostic x-ray procedures and risk of leukemia, lymphoma, and multiple myeloma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boice, J.D. Jr.; Morin, M.M.; Glass, A.G.; Friedman, G.D.; Stovall, M.; Hoover, R.N.; Fraumeni, J.F. Jr.

    1991-01-01

    Exposure to diagnostic x-rays and the risk of leukemia, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL), and multiple myeloma were studied within two prepaid health plans. Adult patients with leukemia (n = 565), NHL (n = 318), and multiple myeloma (n = 208) were matched to controls (n = 1390), and over 25,000 x-ray procedures were abstracted from medical records. Dose response was evaluated by assigning each x-ray procedure a score based on estimated bone marrow dose. X-ray exposure was not associated with chronic lymphocytic leukemia, one of the few malignant conditions never linked to radiation (relative risk [RR], 0.66). For all other forms of leukemia combined (n = 358), there was a slight elevation in risk (RR, 1.17) but no evidence of a dose-response relationship when x-ray procedures near the time of diagnosis were excluded. Similarly, patients with NHL were exposed to diagnostic x-ray procedures more often than controls (RR, 1.32), but the RR fell to 0.99 when the exposure to diagnostic x-ray procedures within 2 years of diagnosis was ignored. For multiple myeloma, overall risk was not significantly high (RR, 1.14), but there was consistent evidence of increasing risk with increasing numbers of diagnostic x-ray procedures. These data suggest that persons with leukemia and NHL undergo x-ray procedures frequently just prior to diagnosis for conditions related to the development or natural history of their disease. There was little evidence that diagnostic x-ray procedures were causally associated with leukemia or NHL. The risk for multiple myeloma, however, was increased among those patients who were frequently exposed to x-rays

  15. A comparison of perinatal outcomes in singletons and multiples born after IVF or ICSI, stratified for neonatal risk criteria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Heesch, Mirjam M. J.; Evers, Johannes L. H.; Dumoulin, John C. M.; van der Hoeven, Mark A. H. B. M.; van Beijsterveldt, Catharina E. M.; Bonsel, Gouke J.; Dykgraaf, Ramon H. M.; van Goudoever, Johannes B.; Koopman-Esseboom, Corine; Nelen, Willianne L. D. M.; Steiner, Katerina; Tamminga, Pieter; Tonch, Nino; van Zonneveld, Piet; Dirksen, Carmen D.

    2014-01-01

    To compare perinatal singleton and multiple outcomes in a large Dutch in-vitro fertilization (IVF)/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) population and within risk subgroups. Newborns were assigned to a risk category based on gestational age, birthweight, Apgar score and congenital malformation.

  16. Youth experiences with multiple types of prejudice-based harassment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucchianeri, Michaela M; Gower, Amy L; McMorris, Barbara J; Eisenberg, Marla E

    2016-08-01

    Despite prejudice-based harassment's associations with serious physical and mental health risks, research examining multiple forms of harassment among children/adolescents is lacking. This study documents the prevalence of prejudice-based harassment (i.e., harassment on the basis of gender, race/ethnicity, weight or physical appearance, sexual orientation, and disability status) among a large, statewide, school-based Midwestern U.S. sample of 162,034 adolescents. Weight-/appearance-based harassment was most prevalent among both girls (25.3%) and boys (19.8%). Adolescents from certain vulnerable groups experienced higher rates of multiple types of harassment, even when controlling for other sociodemographic characteristics. Prejudice-based harassment experiences are prevalent among adolescent girls and boys. Differential rates of each type of harassment are reported across groups within the corresponding sociodemographic status (e.g., white female adolescents report a significantly lower rate of race-based harassment (4.8%), as compared to Native American (18.6%), mixed/other race (18.9%), Hispanic/Latina (21.5%), Asian/Pacific Islander (24.2%), or Black/African American (24.8%) female adolescents); but a pattern of cross-harassment also is evident, such that differences in prevalence of each harassment type emerge across a variety of statuses (e.g., disability-based harassment was statistically significantly higher among discordant heterosexual (12.7%), gay (13.0%), bisexual (15.3%), and unsure (15.3%) male adolescents than among heterosexual male (7.2%) adolescents). Adolescents from specific sociodemographic groups are particularly vulnerable to certain types of harassment. Copyright © 2016 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Role of socio-economic and reproductive factors in the risk of multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Magyari, Melinda

    2015-01-01

    rapid to be explained by gene alterations. We investigated the effect of numerous biological social physical and chemical environmental exposures in different periods of life. These data were available from population-based registries and were used in a case-control approach. This study database...... children reduced the risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) in women but not in men. Childbirths reduced the risk of MS by about 46% during the following 5 years. Even pregnancies terminated early had a protective effect on the risk of developing MS suggesting a temporary immunosuppression during pregnancy. Our...... data on social behaviour regarding educational level income and relationship stability did not indicate reverse causality. A greater likelihood to be exposed to common infections did not show any effect on the risk of MS neither in puberty nor in adulthood. Socio-economic status and lifestyle expressed...

  18. Phase I metabolic genes and risk of lung cancer: multiple polymorphisms and mRNA expression.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa Rotunno

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Polymorphisms in genes coding for enzymes that activate tobacco lung carcinogens may generate inter-individual differences in lung cancer risk. Previous studies had limited sample sizes, poor exposure characterization, and a few single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs tested in candidate genes. We analyzed 25 SNPs (some previously untested in 2101 primary lung cancer cases and 2120 population controls from the Environment And Genetics in Lung cancer Etiology (EAGLE study from six phase I metabolic genes, including cytochrome P450s, microsomal epoxide hydrolase, and myeloperoxidase. We evaluated the main genotype effects and genotype-smoking interactions in lung cancer risk overall and in the major histology subtypes. We tested the combined effect of multiple SNPs on lung cancer risk and on gene expression. Findings were prioritized based on significance thresholds and consistency across different analyses, and accounted for multiple testing and prior knowledge. Two haplotypes in EPHX1 were significantly associated with lung cancer risk in the overall population. In addition, CYP1B1 and CYP2A6 polymorphisms were inversely associated with adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma risk, respectively. Moreover, the association between CYP1A1 rs2606345 genotype and lung cancer was significantly modified by intensity of cigarette smoking, suggesting an underlying dose-response mechanism. Finally, increasing number of variants at CYP1A1/A2 genes revealed significant protection in never smokers and risk in ever smokers. Results were supported by differential gene expression in non-tumor lung tissue samples with down-regulation of CYP1A1 in never smokers and up-regulation in smokers from CYP1A1/A2 SNPs. The significant haplotype associations emphasize that the effect of multiple SNPs may be important despite null single SNP-associations, and warrants consideration in genome-wide association studies (GWAS. Our findings emphasize the necessity of post

  19. Is Hypovitaminosis D One of the Environmental Risk Factors for Multiple Sclerosis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierrot-Deseilligny, Charles; Souberbielle, Jean-Claude

    2010-01-01

    The role of hypovitaminosis D as a possible risk factor for multiple sclerosis is reviewed. First, it is emphasized that hypovitaminosis D could be only one of the risk factors for multiple sclerosis and that numerous other environmental and genetic risk factors appear to interact and combine to trigger the disease. Secondly, the classical…

  20. Dissimilarity-based multiple instance learning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lauge; Loog, Marco; Tax, David M. J.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we propose to solve multiple instance learning problems using a dissimilarity representation of the objects. Once the dissimilarity space has been constructed, the problem is turned into a standard supervised learning problem that can be solved with a general purpose supervised cla...... between distributions of within- and between set point distances, thereby taking relations within and between sets into account. Experiments on five publicly available data sets show competitive performance in terms of classification accuracy compared to previously published results....

  1. Ranking ecological risks of multiple chemical stressors on amphibians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedorenkova, Anastasia; Vonk, J Arie; Lenders, H J Rob; Creemers, Raymond C M; Breure, Anton M; Hendriks, A Jan

    2012-06-01

    Populations of amphibians have been declining worldwide since the late 1960s. Despite global concern, no studies have quantitatively assessed the major causes of this decline. In the present study, species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) were developed to analyze the sensitivity of anurans for ammonium, nitrate, heavy metals (cadmium, copper), pesticides (18 compounds), and acidification (pH) based on laboratory toxicity data. Ecological risk (ER) was calculated as the probability that a measured environmental concentration of a particular stressor in habitats where anurans were observed would exceed the toxic effect concentrations derived from the species sensitivity distributions. The assessment of ER was used to rank the stressors according to their potential risk to anurans based on a case study of Dutch freshwater bodies. The derived ERs revealed that threats to populations of anurans decreased in the sequence of pH, copper, diazinon, ammonium, and endosulfan. Other stressors studied were of minor importance. The method of deriving ER by combining field observation data and laboratory data provides insight into potential threats to species in their habitats and can be used to prioritize stressors, which is necessary to achieve effective management in amphibian conservation. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  2. The third spatial dimension risk approach for individual risk and group risk in multiple use of space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suddle, Shahid; Ale, Ben

    2005-01-01

    Buildings above roads and railways are examples of multiple use of space. Safety is one of the critical issues for such projects. Risk analyses can be undertaken to investigate what safety measures that are required to realise these projects. The results of these analyses can also be compared to risk acceptance criteria, if they are applicable. In The Netherlands, there are explicit criteria for acceptability of individual risk and societal risk. Traditionally calculations of individual risk result in contours of equal risk on a map and thus are considered in two-dimensional space only. However, when different functions are layered the third spatial dimension, height, becomes an important parameter. The various activities and structures above and below each other impose mutual risks. There are no explicit norms or policies about how to deal with the individual or group risk approach in the third dimension. This paper proposes an approach for these problems and gives some examples. Finally, the third dimension risk approach is applied in a case study of Bos en Lommer, Amsterdam

  3. Multiple violence victimisation associated with sexual ill health and sexual risk behaviours in Swedish youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blom, Helena; Högberg, Ulf; Olofsson, Niclas; Danielsson, Ingela

    2016-01-01

    To address the associations between emotional, physical and sexual violence, specifically multiple violence victimisation, and sexual ill health and sexual risk behaviours in youth, as well as possible gender differences. A cross-sectional population-based survey among sexually experienced youth using a questionnaire with validated questions on emotional, physical, and sexual violence victimisation, sociodemographics, health risk behaviours, and sexual ill health and sexual risk behaviours. Proportions, unadjusted/adjusted odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. The participants comprised 1192 female and 1021 male students aged 15 to 22 years. The females had experienced multiple violence (victimisation with two or three types of violence) more often than the males (21% vs. 16%). The associations between multiple violence victimisation and sexual ill health and sexual risk behaviours were consistent for both genders. Experience of/involvement in pregnancy yielded adjusted ORs of 2.4 (95% CI 1.5-3.7) for females and 2.1 (95% CI 1.3-3.4) for males, and early age at first intercourse 2.2 (95% CI 1.6-3.1) for females and 1.9 (95% CI 1.2-3.0) for males. No significantly raised adjusted ORs were found for non-use of contraceptives in young men or young women, or for chlamydia infection in young men. Several types of sexual ill health and sexual risk behaviours are strongly associated with multiple violence victimisation in both genders. This should be taken into consideration when counselling young people and addressing their sexual and reproductive health.

  4. Low bone density risk is higher in exercising women with multiple triad risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, Jenna C; Nattiv, Aurelia; Barrack, Michelle T; Williams, Nancy I; Rauh, Mitchell J; Nichols, Jeanne F; De Souza, Mary Jane

    2014-01-01

    The cumulative effect of the female athlete triad (Triad) risk factors on the likelihood of low bone mineral density (BMD) in exercising women is unclear. This study aimed to determine the risk of low BMD in exercising women with multiple Triad risk factors. We retrospectively examined cross-sectional data from 437 exercising women (mean ± SD age of 18.0 ± 3.5 yr, weighed 57.5 ± 7.1 kg with 24.5% ± 6.1% body fat) obtained at baseline from 4 prospective cohort studies examining Triad risk factors. Questionnaires were completed to obtain information on demographic characteristics, self-reported eating attitudes/behaviors, menstrual function, sport/activity participation, and medication use. Height and body weight were measured. BMD was measured using dual energy x-ray absorptiometry. Low BMD was defined as z-scores of exercising women. Further research should be conducted to develop a user-friendly algorithm integrating these indicators of risk for low BMD in exercising women (particularly factors associated with low BMI/body weight, menstrual dysfunction, lean sport/activity participation, and elevated dietary restraint).

  5. Risk-based performance indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azarm, M.A.; Boccio, J.L.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.

    1987-01-01

    The purpose of risk-based indicators is to monitor plant safety. Safety is measured by monitoring the potential for core melt (core-melt frequency) and the public risk. Targets for these measures can be set consistent with NRC safety goals. In this process, the performance of safety systems, support systems, major components, and initiating events can be monitored using measures such as unavailability, failure or occurrence frequency. The changes in performance measures and their trends are determined from the time behavior of monitored measures by differentiation between stochastical and actual variations. Therefore, degradation, as well as improvement in the plant safety performance, can be determined. The development of risk-based performance indicators will also provide the means to trace a change in the safety measures to specific problem areas which are amenable to root cause analysis and inspection audits. In addition, systematic methods will be developed to identify specific improvement policies using the plant information system for the identified problem areas. The final product of the performance indicator project will be a methodology, and an integrated and validated set of software packages which, if properly interfaced with the logic model software of a plant, can monitor the plant performance as plant information is provided as input

  6. Value of multiple risk factors in predicting coronary artery disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Zhengbin; Zhang Ruiyan; Zhang Qi; Yang Zhenkun; Hu Jian; Zhang Jiansheng; Shen Weifeng

    2008-01-01

    Objective: This study sought to assess the relationship between correlative comprehension risk factors and coronary arterial disease and to build up a simple mathematical model to evaluate the extension of coronary artery lesion in patients with stable angina. Methods: A total of 1024 patients with chest pain who underwent coronary angiography were divided into CAD group(n=625)and control group(n=399) based on at least one significant coronary artery narrowing more than 50% in diameter. Independent risk factors for CAD were evaluated and multivariate logistic regression model and receiver-operating characteristic(ROC) curves were used to estimate the independent influence factor for CAD and built up a simple formula for clinical use. Results: Multivariate regression analysis revealed that UACR > 7.25 μg/mg(OR=3.6; 95% CI 2.6-4.9; P 20 mmol/L(OR=3.2; 95% CI 2.3-4.4; P 2 (OR=2.3; 95% CI 1.4-3.8; P 2.6 mmol/L (OR 2.141; 95% CI 1.586-2.890; P 7.25 μg/mg + 1.158 x hsCRP > 20 mmol/L + 0.891 GFR 2 + 0.831 x LVEF 2.6 mmol/L + 0.676 x smoking history + 0.594 x male + 0.459 x diabetes + 0.425 x hypertension). Area under the curve was 0.811 (P < 0.01), and the optimal probability value for predicting severe stage of CAD was 0.977 (sensitivity 49.0%, specificity 92.7% ). Conclusions: Risk factors including renal insufficiency were the main predictors for CAD. The logistic regression model is the non-invasive method of choice for predicting the extension of coronary artery lesion in patients with stable agiana. (authors)

  7. The correlates and course of multiple health risk behaviour in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hale, Daniel R; Viner, Russell M

    2016-05-31

    Health risk behaviours often co-occur in adolescence. This may be partially explained by a set of common risk and protective factors. The current study examines the association between risk behaviours throughout adolescence and identifies common risk factors for multiple risk behaviour in late adolescence. We use data from the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England. We examined the association between risk behaviours at age 14 (n = 15,588), age 16 (n = 12,416) and age 19 (n = 9,548). The associations between age 19 risk behaviour and earlier risk behaviours and risk and protective factors were assessed longitudinally. Health risk behaviours included smoking, alcohol use, illicit drug use, delinquency and unsafe sexual behaviour. All risk behaviours were found to be associated with other risk behaviours with associations weakening through adolescence. A number of sociodemographic, interpersonal, school and family factors at age 14 predicted risk behaviour and multiple risk behaviour at 19, though predictors for heavy alcohol use often differed from other health risk behaviours. Past risk behaviour was a strong predictor of age 19 risk behaviour though many involved in only one form of risk behaviour in mid-adolescence do not progress to multiple risk behaviour. Our findings reaffirm the links between health risk behaviours, but these diminish throughout adolescence with multiple risk behaviour usually initiated in mid-adolescence. Multiple risk behaviour is initiated in early or mid adolescence with a number of common risk factors explaining the co-occurrence of risk behaviours.

  8. Risk based surveillance for vector borne diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bødker, Rene

    of samples and hence early detection of outbreaks. Models for vector borne diseases in Denmark have demonstrated dramatic variation in outbreak risk during the season and between years. The Danish VetMap project aims to make these risk based surveillance estimates available on the veterinarians smart phones...... in Northern Europe. This model approach may be used as a basis for risk based surveillance. In risk based surveillance limited resources for surveillance are targeted at geographical areas most at risk and only when the risk is high. This makes risk based surveillance a cost effective alternative...... sample to a diagnostic laboratory. Risk based surveillance models may reduce this delay. An important feature of risk based surveillance models is their ability to continuously communicate the level of risk to veterinarians and hence increase awareness when risk is high. This is essential for submission...

  9. Multiple health-risk behaviour and psychological distress in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbour-Nicitopoulos, Kelly P; Faulkner, Guy E; Irving, Hyacinth M

    2012-08-01

    To examine the prevalence and correlates of psychological distress in a school-based sample of Canadian adolescents. Self-reported data of demographics, weight status, physical activity, screen-time, diet, substance use, and psychological distress were derived from a representative sample of 2935 students in grades 9 to 12 (M(age) = 15.9 years) from the 2009 Ontario Student Drug Use and Health Survey. Overall prevalence of psychological distress was 35.1%. Significant associations were shown between psychological distress and the following: being female, tobacco use, not meeting physical activity and screen-time recommendations, and inadequate consumption of breakfast and vegetables. These findings highlight the need for targeting greater physical health promotion for adolescents at risk of mental health problems.

  10. Multiple risk behaviors and suicidal ideation and behavior among Israeli and Palestinian adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harel-Fisch, Yossi; Abdeen, Ziad; Walsh, Sophie D; Radwan, Qasrowi; Fogel-Grinvald, Haya

    2012-07-01

    Based conceptually on Problem Behavior Theory, Normalization Theory and theories of adolescent ethnic identity formation this study explores relationships between individual and cumulative multiple risk behaviors and suicidal ideation and behavior among mid-adolescents in three different populations in the Middle East. Data from the 2004 Health Behavior in School-Aged Children in the Middle-East (HBSC-ME) study included 8345 10th-grade pupils in three populations: Jewish Israelis (1770), Arab Israelis (2185), and Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank (4390). We considered risk behaviors and factors including tobacco use, bullying, medically-attended injuries, excessive time with friends, parental disconnectedness, negative school experience, truancy and poor academic performance. Substantial population differences for suicidal tendency and risk behaviors were observed, with notably high levels of suicidal ideation and behavior among Arab-Israeli youth and higher levels of risk behaviors among the Jewish and Arab-Israeli youth. For all populations suicidal tendency was at least 4 times higher among adolescents reporting 4+ risk behaviors, suggesting that similar psychosocial determinants affect patterns of risk behaviors and suicidal tendency. Results highlight the importance of understanding cultural contexts of risk behaviors and suicidal ideation and behavior. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Antibody-Based Therapies in Multiple Myeloma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Tzu Tai

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The unmet need for improved multiple myeloma (MM therapy has stimulated clinical development of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs targeting either MM cells or cells of the bone marrow (BM microenvironment. In contrast to small-molecule inhibitors, therapeutic mAbs present the potential to specifically target tumor cells and directly induce an immune response to lyse tumor cells. Unique immune-effector mechanisms are only triggered by therapeutic mAbs but not by small molecule targeting agents. Although therapeutic murine mAbs or chimeric mAbs can cause immunogenicity, the advancement of genetic recombination for humanizing rodent mAbs has allowed large-scale production and designation of mAbs with better affinities, efficient selection, decreasing immunogenicity, and improved effector functions. These advancements of antibody engineering technologies have largely overcome the critical obstacle of antibody immunogenicity and enabled the development and subsequent Food and Drug Administration (FDA approval of therapeutic Abs for cancer and other diseases.

  12. Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Muns (Sander)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence

  13. Multiple intelligences and outcomes based education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Ridge

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available This article explores the reasons that make it advantageous to develop learning programmes which draw on the theory of multiple intelligences (MI. A unitary view of intelligence privileges analytic/linguisticallygifted learners. The theory of MI, on the other hand, takes account of the diversity of learners and challenges educators to provide opportunities for them to use their varied intelligences.The outline of each of the eight intelligences demonstratesthe many ways in which learners can demonstrate their ability to excel. Application of these insights can complement the kind of transformatoryeducation envisaged in the Department of Education policy documents. MI translated into school practice has taken a variety of forms: project-basedapproaches, interdisciplinarycurriculums, entry points to lesson plans and complex assessments are only some of these. Ordinary classroom teachers can create diverse opportunities for all learners to enjoy a high measure of success.Hierdie artikel ondersoek die redes waarom dit voordelig is om leerprogramme te ontwikkel wal gebaseer is op idees uit die leorie van meervoudige intelligensies (MI.'n Unitêre siening van intelligensiebevoordeel analities- en taalbegaafde-leerders.Die MI-teorie, daarenleen neem die ongelyksoortigheidvan die leerders in ag en daag opvoeders uit om geleenthede te skep vir die leerlinge om verskeie van hulle intelligensies te gebruik. Die omskrywing van elk van die agt soorte intelligensies demonstreer die talryke-maniere waarop leerders hulle vermoë om uit te blink kan bewys.Die toepassing van hierdie insigte kan bydra tot die transformerendeaard van die opvoeding wat met die Departmentvan Opvoedkunde se beleidsdokumentebeoog word.MI toegepas in skoolpraktykneem verskillendevorms aan: projek-gebaseerdebenaderinge;interdissiplinêrekurrikulums; loelreepunte vir lesplanne en veelsydige assessering, om maar 'n paar te noem.Gewone klas-onderwysers kan 'n verskeidenheid geleenthede skep

  14. Multiple challenges of risk management in EU credit institutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantinescu, A.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is intended to be a significant insight into risk management issues by describing the main types of such risks and by providing management and evaluation procedures of significant risks into some active banking companies in Romania. In times of crisis, risk management in the banking system has a greater importance than in the normal economic times. The 2011 was a year in which Romania has been hit by the repercussions of the international economic crisis. Using strategies against risks, implementing procedures to monitor and control risks, risk assessment and quantification can substantially reduce the financial losses of a company or those of a financial institution. Risk management is an integral part of all decision making and business processes from credit institutions, its purpose being to protect their sustainable development. The innovations on the financial market, the internationalization of the specific operations, and the pressure of the competition are just a few arguments that impose a permanent supervision of the general and specific risks. This is the main reason why is compulsory to find new methods of managing risks, to keep in consideration the identification, evaluation of the management and the control of the banking system and of each bank.

  15. [Children with Multiple Risk Factor Exposition Benefit from the German "Strengthening Families Program"].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bröning, Sonja; Sack, Peter-Michael; Thomsen, Monika; Thomasius, Rainer

    2016-09-01

    Children with Multiple Risk Factor Exposition Benefit from the German "Strengthening Families Program" The German adaptation of the substance use-preventive family-based Strengthening Families Program 10-14 (SFP, Iowa version) was evaluated in a longitudinal two-year follow-up trial. Participants were N = 292 children with a mean age of twelve years at baseline, and N = 292 parents. We employed a multi-centric, randomized-controlled, two-armed (SFP vs. minimal control condition) study design. Following a "risk moderation hypothesis", we assumed that children with an elevated risk-exposition R(+) would benefit more than children with a low risk-exposition R(-) irrespective of the preventive intervention, and that R(+) under SFP would benefit more than R(+) under the minimal control condition. "Risk-exposition" was measured in correspondence with the Communities That Care Youth Survey-questionnaire. A total of 28 % of children were classified with an elevated risk level. Children's reports confirmed our hypothesis: R(+) report a total of eleven improvements, four of these being significantly more distinct than in the other groups (Anxiety-Depressivity, Punitive Parenting of mother, Punitive Parenting of father, Unbalanced family functioning). In three measures an improvement appears solely in R(+) under SFP (Satisfaction with family functioning, School Attachment and Peer Relationship Quality, Quality of Life). Parents' reports showed a similar tendency, but were less pronounced.

  16. Risk distribution across multiple health insurance funds in rural Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chomi, Eunice Nahyuha; Mujinja, Phares Gamba; Enemark, Ulrika

    2014-01-01

    cross-subsidisation across the funds. This paper analyses whether the risk distribution varies across the Community Health Fund (CHF) and National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) in two districts in Tanzania. Specifically we aim to 1) identify risk factors associated with increased utilisation of health...... services and 2) compare the distribution of identified risk factors among the CHF, NHIF and non-member households. METHODS: Data was collected from a survey of 695 households. A multivariate logisitic regression model was used to identify risk factors for increased health care utilisation. Chi-square tests...... were performed to test whether the distribution of identified risk factors varied across the CHF, NHIF and non-member households. RESULTS: There was a higher concentration of identified risk factors among CHF households compared to those of the NHIF. Non-member households have a similar wealth status...

  17. Imputation and subset-based association analysis across different cancer types identifies multiple independent risk loci in the TERT-CLPTM1L region on chromosome 5p15.33

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhaoming; Zhu, Bin; Zhang, Mingfeng; Parikh, Hemang; Jia, Jinping; Chung, Charles C.; Sampson, Joshua N.; Hoskins, Jason W.; Hutchinson, Amy; Burdette, Laurie; Ibrahim, Abdisamad; Hautman, Christopher; Raj, Preethi S.; Abnet, Christian C.; Adjei, Andrew A.; Ahlbom, Anders; Albanes, Demetrius; Allen, Naomi E.; Ambrosone, Christine B.; Aldrich, Melinda; Amiano, Pilar; Amos, Christopher; Andersson, Ulrika; Andriole, Gerald; Andrulis, Irene L.; Arici, Cecilia; Arslan, Alan A.; Austin, Melissa A.; Baris, Dalsu; Barkauskas, Donald A.; Bassig, Bryan A.; Beane Freeman, Laura E.; Berg, Christine D.; Berndt, Sonja I.; Bertazzi, Pier Alberto; Biritwum, Richard B.; Black, Amanda; Blot, William; Boeing, Heiner; Boffetta, Paolo; Bolton, Kelly; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Bracci, Paige M.; Brennan, Paul; Brinton, Louise A.; Brotzman, Michelle; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. Bas; Buring, Julie E.; Butler, Mary Ann; Cai, Qiuyin; Cancel-Tassin, Geraldine; Canzian, Federico; Cao, Guangwen; Caporaso, Neil E.; Carrato, Alfredo; Carreon, Tania; Carta, Angela; Chang, Gee-Chen; Chang, I-Shou; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Che, Xu; Chen, Chien-Jen; Chen, Chih-Yi; Chen, Chung-Hsing; Chen, Constance; Chen, Kuan-Yu; Chen, Yuh-Min; Chokkalingam, Anand P.; Chu, Lisa W.; Clavel-Chapelon, Francoise; Colditz, Graham A.; Colt, Joanne S.; Conti, David; Cook, Michael B.; Cortessis, Victoria K.; Crawford, E. David; Cussenot, Olivier; Davis, Faith G.; De Vivo, Immaculata; Deng, Xiang; Ding, Ti; Dinney, Colin P.; Di Stefano, Anna Luisa; Diver, W. Ryan; Duell, Eric J.; Elena, Joanne W.; Fan, Jin-Hu; Feigelson, Heather Spencer; Feychting, Maria; Figueroa, Jonine D.; Flanagan, Adrienne M.; Fraumeni, Joseph F.; Freedman, Neal D.; Fridley, Brooke L.; Fuchs, Charles S.; Gago-Dominguez, Manuela; Gallinger, Steven; Gao, Yu-Tang; Gapstur, Susan M.; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Garcia-Closas, Reina; Gastier-Foster, Julie M.; Gaziano, J. Michael; Gerhard, Daniela S.; Giffen, Carol A.; Giles, Graham G.; Gillanders, Elizabeth M.; Giovannucci, Edward L.; Goggins, Michael; Gokgoz, Nalan; Goldstein, Alisa M.; Gonzalez, Carlos; Gorlick, Richard; Greene, Mark H.; Gross, Myron; Grossman, H. Barton; Grubb, Robert; Gu, Jian; Guan, Peng; Haiman, Christopher A.; Hallmans, Goran; Hankinson, Susan E.; Harris, Curtis C.; Hartge, Patricia; Hattinger, Claudia; Hayes, Richard B.; He, Qincheng; Helman, Lee; Henderson, Brian E.; Henriksson, Roger; Hoffman-Bolton, Judith; Hohensee, Chancellor; Holly, Elizabeth A.; Hong, Yun-Chul; Hoover, Robert N.; Hosgood, H. Dean; Hsiao, Chin-Fu; Hsing, Ann W.; Hsiung, Chao Agnes; Hu, Nan; Hu, Wei; Hu, Zhibin; Huang, Ming-Shyan; Hunter, David J.; Inskip, Peter D.; Ito, Hidemi; Jacobs, Eric J.; Jacobs, Kevin B.; Jenab, Mazda; Ji, Bu-Tian; Johansen, Christoffer; Johansson, Mattias; Johnson, Alison; Kaaks, Rudolf; Kamat, Ashish M.; Kamineni, Aruna; Karagas, Margaret; Khanna, Chand; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Kim, Christopher; Kim, In-Sam; Kim, Jin Hee; Kim, Yeul Hong; Kim, Young-Chul; Kim, Young Tae; Kang, Chang Hyun; Jung, Yoo Jin; Kitahara, Cari M.; Klein, Alison P.; Klein, Robert; Kogevinas, Manolis; Koh, Woon-Puay; Kohno, Takashi; Kolonel, Laurence N.; Kooperberg, Charles; Kratz, Christian P.; Krogh, Vittorio; Kunitoh, Hideo; Kurtz, Robert C.; Kurucu, Nilgun; Lan, Qing; Lathrop, Mark; Lau, Ching C.; Lecanda, Fernando; Lee, Kyoung-Mu; Lee, Maxwell P.; Le Marchand, Loic; Lerner, Seth P.; Li, Donghui; Liao, Linda M.; Lim, Wei-Yen; Lin, Dongxin; Lin, Jie; Lindstrom, Sara; Linet, Martha S.; Lissowska, Jolanta; Liu, Jianjun; Ljungberg, Börje; Lloreta, Josep; Lu, Daru; Ma, Jing; Malats, Nuria; Mannisto, Satu; Marina, Neyssa; Mastrangelo, Giuseppe; Matsuo, Keitaro; McGlynn, Katherine A.; McKean-Cowdin, Roberta; McNeill, Lorna H.; McWilliams, Robert R.; Melin, Beatrice S.; Meltzer, Paul S.; Mensah, James E.; Miao, Xiaoping; Michaud, Dominique S.; Mondul, Alison M.; Moore, Lee E.; Muir, Kenneth; Niwa, Shelley; Olson, Sara H.; Orr, Nick; Panico, Salvatore; Park, Jae Yong; Patel, Alpa V.; Patino-Garcia, Ana; Pavanello, Sofia; Peeters, Petra H. M.; Peplonska, Beata; Peters, Ulrike; Petersen, Gloria M.; Picci, Piero; Pike, Malcolm C.; Porru, Stefano; Prescott, Jennifer; Pu, Xia; Purdue, Mark P.; Qiao, You-Lin; Rajaraman, Preetha; Riboli, Elio; Risch, Harvey A.; Rodabough, Rebecca J.; Rothman, Nathaniel; Ruder, Avima M.; Ryu, Jeong-Seon; Sanson, Marc; Schned, Alan; Schumacher, Fredrick R.; Schwartz, Ann G.; Schwartz, Kendra L.; Schwenn, Molly; Scotlandi, Katia; Seow, Adeline; Serra, Consol; Serra, Massimo; Sesso, Howard D.; Severi, Gianluca; Shen, Hongbing; Shen, Min; Shete, Sanjay; Shiraishi, Kouya; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Siddiq, Afshan; Sierrasesumaga, Luis; Sierri, Sabina; Loon Sihoe, Alan Dart; Silverman, Debra T.; Simon, Matthias; Southey, Melissa C.; Spector, Logan; Spitz, Margaret; Stampfer, Meir; Stattin, Par; Stern, Mariana C.; Stevens, Victoria L.; Stolzenberg-Solomon, Rachael Z.; Stram, Daniel O.; Strom, Sara S.; Su, Wu-Chou; Sund, Malin; Sung, Sook Whan; Swerdlow, Anthony; Tan, Wen; Tanaka, Hideo; Tang, Wei; Tang, Ze-Zhang; Tardon, Adonina; Tay, Evelyn; Taylor, Philip R.; Tettey, Yao; Thomas, David M.; Tirabosco, Roberto; Tjonneland, Anne; Tobias, Geoffrey S.; Toro, Jorge R.; Travis, Ruth C.; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Troisi, Rebecca; Truelove, Ann; Tsai, Ying-Huang; Tucker, Margaret A.; Tumino, Rosario; Van Den Berg, David; Van Den Eeden, Stephen K.; Vermeulen, Roel; Vineis, Paolo; Visvanathan, Kala; Vogel, Ulla; Wang, Chaoyu; Wang, Chengfeng; Wang, Junwen; Wang, Sophia S.; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weinstein, Stephanie J.; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Wheeler, William; White, Emily; Wiencke, John K.; Wolk, Alicja; Wolpin, Brian M.; Wong, Maria Pik; Wrensch, Margaret; Wu, Chen; Wu, Tangchun; Wu, Xifeng; Wu, Yi-Long; Wunder, Jay S.; Xiang, Yong-Bing; Xu, Jun; Yang, Hannah P.; Yang, Pan-Chyr; Yatabe, Yasushi; Ye, Yuanqing; Yeboah, Edward D.; Yin, Zhihua; Ying, Chen; Yu, Chong-Jen; Yu, Kai; Yuan, Jian-Min; Zanetti, Krista A.; Zeleniuch-Jacquotte, Anne; Zheng, Wei; Zhou, Baosen; Mirabello, Lisa; Savage, Sharon A.; Kraft, Peter; Chanock, Stephen J.; Yeager, Meredith; Landi, Maria Terese; Shi, Jianxin; Chatterjee, Nilanjan; Amundadottir, Laufey T.

    2014-01-01

    Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have mapped risk alleles for at least 10 distinct cancers to a small region of 63 000 bp on chromosome 5p15.33. This region harbors the TERT and CLPTM1L genes; the former encodes the catalytic subunit of telomerase reverse transcriptase and the latter may play a role in apoptosis. To investigate further the genetic architecture of common susceptibility alleles in this region, we conducted an agnostic subset-based meta-analysis (association analysis based on subsets) across six distinct cancers in 34 248 cases and 45 036 controls. Based on sequential conditional analysis, we identified as many as six independent risk loci marked by common single-nucleotide polymorphisms: five in the TERT gene (Region 1: rs7726159, P = 2.10 × 10−39; Region 3: rs2853677, P = 3.30 × 10−36 and PConditional = 2.36 × 10−8; Region 4: rs2736098, P = 3.87 × 10−12 and PConditional = 5.19 × 10−6, Region 5: rs13172201, P = 0.041 and PConditional = 2.04 × 10−6; and Region 6: rs10069690, P = 7.49 × 10−15 and PConditional = 5.35 × 10−7) and one in the neighboring CLPTM1L gene (Region 2: rs451360; P = 1.90 × 10−18 and PConditional = 7.06 × 10−16). Between three and five cancers mapped to each independent locus with both risk-enhancing and protective effects. Allele-specific effects on DNA methylation were seen for a subset of risk loci, indicating that methylation and subsequent effects on gene expression may contribute to the biology of risk variants on 5p15.33. Our results provide strong support for extensive pleiotropy across this region of 5p15.33, to an extent not previously observed in other cancer susceptibility loci. PMID:25027329

  18. Calorimeter prediction based on multiple exponentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.K.; Bracken, D.S.

    2002-01-01

    Calorimetry allows very precise measurements of nuclear material to be carried out, but it also requires relatively long measurement times to do so. The ability to accurately predict the equilibrium response of a calorimeter would significantly reduce the amount of time required for calorimetric assays. An algorithm has been developed that is effective at predicting the equilibrium response. This multi-exponential prediction algorithm is based on an iterative technique using commercial fitting routines that fit a constant plus a variable number of exponential terms to calorimeter data. Details of the implementation and the results of trials on a large number of calorimeter data sets will be presented

  19. Multiple shooting applied to robust reservoir control optimization including output constraints on coherent risk measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Codas, Andrés; Hanssen, Kristian G.; Foss, Bjarne

    2017-01-01

    The production life of oil reservoirs starts under significant uncertainty regarding the actual economical return of the recovery process due to the lack of oil field data. Consequently, investors and operators make management decisions based on a limited and uncertain description of the reservoir....... In this work, we propose a new formulation for robust optimization of reservoir well controls. It is inspired by the multiple shooting (MS) method which permits a broad range of parallelization opportunities and output constraint handling. This formulation exploits coherent risk measures, a concept...

  20. Managing multiple facets of risk in new product alliances

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lee, R.P.; Johnson, J.L.

    2010-01-01

    The trend of forming alliances to develop new products continues; however, many of these new product alliances fail. As such we explore how key risk types intrinsic in new product alliances, performance, relational, and knowledge appropriation risks, influence alliance success. Further, we theorize

  1. Drug response prediction in high-risk multiple myeloma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vangsted, A J; Helm-Petersen, S; Cowland, J B

    2018-01-01

    from high-risk patients by GEP70 at diagnosis from Total Therapy 2 and 3A to predict the response by the DRP score of drugs used in the treatment of myeloma patients. The DRP score stratified patients further. High-risk myeloma with a predicted sensitivity to melphalan by the DRP score had a prolonged...

  2. Multiple primary cancer risk after therapy for Hodgkins's disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brody, R.S.; Schottenfeld, D.; Reid, A.

    1977-01-01

    Forty-four antecedent, synchronous, and metachronous multiple primary cancers were identified among 41 patients who constituted 4.0% of 1028 patients initially treated for Hodgkin's disease during the years 1950--1954, 1960--1964, and 1968--1972. At 5 years post-therapy the cumulative probabilities of developing a multiple primary cancer for patients treated in 1950--1954, 1960--1964, and 1968--1972, were 1.14%, 1.48%, and 4.43%, respectively. At 10 years the cumulative probability of a multiple primary cancer was 2.54% for the 1950--1954 treatment group and 6.52% for the 1960--1964 treatment group. Among those patients 16-39 years of age, initially treated during the period 1960--1964, who had survived 6-10 years after receiving radiation plus single agent chemotherapy, we observed a significant 18-fold increase in the number of multiple primary cancers. A significant occurrence of two multiple primary cancers in a relatively small group of patients treated with chemotherapy only during the period 1968--1972 was also noted. Continued surveillance of patients extensively treated with combination chemotherapy and radiotherapy will enable assessment of the oncogenic potential of these modern therapeutic approaches to the management of Hodgkin's disease

  3. Risk acceptance in multiple sclerosis patients on natalizumab treatment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen Tur

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate the ability of natalizumab (NTZ-treated patients to assume treatment-associated risks and the factors involved in such risk acceptance. METHODS: From a total of 185 patients, 114 patients on NTZ as of July 2011 carried out a comprehensive survey. We obtained disease severity perception scores, personality traits' scores, and risk-acceptance scores (RAS so that higher RAS indicated higher risk acceptance. We recorded JC virus status (JCV+/-, prior immunosuppression, NTZ treatment duration, and clinical characteristics. NTZ patients were split into subgroups (A-E, depending on their individual PML risk. Some 22 MS patients on first-line drugs (DMD acted as controls. RESULTS: No differences between treatment groups were observed in disease severity perception and personality traits. RAS were higher in NTZ than in DMD patients (p<0.01. Perception of the own disease as a more severe condition tended to predict higher RAS (p=0.07. Higher neuroticism scores predicted higher RAS in the NTZ group as a whole (p=0.04, and in high PML-risk subgroups (A-B (p=0.02. In low PML-risk subgroups (C-E, higher RAS were associated with a JCV+ status (p=0.01. Neither disability scores nor pre-treatment relapse rate predicted RAS in either group. CONCLUSIONS: Risk acceptance is a multifactorial phenomenon, which might be partly explained by an adaptive process, in light of the higher risk acceptance amongst NTZ-treated patients and, especially, amongst those who are JCV seropositive but still have low PML risk, but which seems also intimately related to personality traits.

  4. Male factor infertility and risk of multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Glazer, Clara Helene; Tøttenborg, Sandra Søgaard; Giwercman, Aleksander

    2018-01-01

    and prevalent as well as incident MS. METHOD: Our cohort was established by linkage of the Danish National in vitro fertilization (IVF) registry to The Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry and consisted of 51,063 men whose partners had undergone fertility treatment in all public and private fertility clinics......BACKGROUND: Gender, possibly due to the influence of gonadal hormones, is presumed to play a role in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis (MS), but no studies have evaluated whether male infertility is associated with MS. OBJECTIVE: To study the association between male factor infertility...

  5. Risk-based regulation: Challenges and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1995-01-01

    Over the last twenty years, man has witnessed a gradual but steady movement toward increased usage of risk-based methods and results in the regulatory process. The ''risk perspective'' as a supportive view to existing (non-risk-based or deterministic) information used in decision making has a firm foothold now in most countries that regulate nuclear power. Furthermore, in the areas outside the nuclear power field, such as health risk assessment, risk-based information is used increasingly to make decisions on potential impacts of chemical, biological, and radiological exposures. Some of the principal concepts and issues that are pertinent to risk-based regulation are reviewed. There is a growing interest in most countries in the use of risk-based methods and results to facilitate decision-making associated with regulatory processes. A summary is presented of the challenges and opportunities related to expanded use of risk-based regulation

  6. Perceptions of risk in adults with a low or high risk profile of developing type 2 diabetes; a cross sectional population-bases study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adriaanse, M.C.; Twisk, J.W.R.; Dekker, J.M.; Spijkerman, A.M.W.; Nijpels, G.; Heine, R.J.; Snoek, F.J.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To compare the perceived seriousness and risk of type 2 diabetes among low risk with high risk profile non-diabetic subjects and examine the relationship of perceived risk with multiple self-reported risk indicators. Methods: A cross-sectional population-based study among 4435 low risk

  7. Making assessments while taking repeated risks: a pattern of multiple response pathways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pleskac, Timothy J; Wershbale, Avishai

    2014-02-01

    Beyond simply a decision process, repeated risky decisions also require a number of cognitive processes including learning, search and exploration, and attention. In this article, we examine how multiple response pathways develop over repeated risky decisions. Using the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) as a case study, we show that 2 different response pathways emerge over the course of the task. The assessment pathway is a slower, more controlled pathway where participants deliberate over taking a risk. The 2nd pathway is a faster, more automatic process where no deliberation occurs. Results imply the slower assessment pathway is taken as choice conflict increases and that the faster automatic response is a learned response. Based on these results, we modify an existing formal cognitive model of decision making during the BART to account for these dual response pathways. The slower more deliberative response process is modeled with a sequential sampling process where evidence is accumulated to a threshold, while the other response is given automatically. We show that adolescents with conduct disorder and substance use disorder symptoms not only evaluate risks differently during the BART but also differ in the rate at which they develop the more automatic response. More broadly, our results suggest cognitive models of judgment decision making need to transition from treating observed decisions as the result of a single response pathway to the result of multiple response pathways that change and develop over time.

  8. Multiple-valued logic design based on the multiple-peak BiCMOS-NDR circuits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwang-Jow Gan

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Three different multiple-valued logic (MVL designs using the multiple-peak negative-differential-resistance (NDR circuits are investigated. The basic NDR element, which is made of several Si-based metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect-transistor (MOS and SiGe-based heterojunction-bipolar-transistor (HBT devices, can be implemented by using a standard BiCMOS process. These MVL circuits are designed based on the triggering-pulse control, saw-tooth input signal, and peak-control methods, respectively. However, there are some transient states existing between the multiple stable levels for the first two methods. These states might affect the circuit function in practical application. As a result, our proposed peak-control method for the MVL design can be used to overcome these transient states.

  9. Health risk implications from simultaneous exposure to multiple environmental contaminants

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Genthe, Bettina

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available to determine the possible risks local communities face from various pollutants such as microbials, heavy metals and oestrogen in the river water and vegetation. Aluminium and manganese accumulated in plants and vanadium and aluminium concentrations found...

  10. Prognostic risk estimates of patients with multiple sclerosis and their physicians: comparison to an online analytical risk counseling tool.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christoph Heesen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110 and their physicians (n = 6 and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. RESULTS: Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. CONCLUSION: While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic

  11. Prognostic risk estimates of patients with multiple sclerosis and their physicians: comparison to an online analytical risk counseling tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heesen, Christoph; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Nguyen, Franziska; Stellmann, Jan-Patrick; Kasper, Jürgen; Köpke, Sascha; Lederer, Christian; Neuhaus, Anneke; Daumer, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS) is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP) tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110) and their physicians (n = 6) and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic estimates and clarify its usefulness for patients and physicians

  12. Signal Recovery in Compressive Sensing via Multiple Sparsifying Bases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wijewardhana, U. L.; Belyaev, Evgeny; Codreanu, M.

    2017-01-01

    is sparse is the key assumption utilized by such algorithms. However, the basis in which the signal is the sparsest is unknown for many natural signals of interest. Instead there may exist multiple bases which lead to a compressible representation of the signal: e.g., an image is compressible in different...... wavelet transforms. We show that a significant performance improvement can be achieved by utilizing multiple estimates of the signal using sparsifying bases in the context of signal reconstruction from compressive samples. Further, we derive a customized interior-point method to jointly obtain multiple...... estimates of a 2-D signal (image) from compressive measurements utilizing multiple sparsifying bases as well as the fact that the images usually have a sparse gradient....

  13. A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different

  14. Homocyst(e)ine and risk of cardiovascular disease in the multiple risk factor intervention trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, R W; Shaten, B J; Hempel, J D; Cutler, J A; Kuller, L H

    2000-01-01

    A nested case-control study was undertaken involving men participating in the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial (MRFIT). Serum samples from 712 men, stored for upto 20 years, were analysed for homocyst(e)ine. Cases involved non-fatal myocardial infractions, identified through the active phase of the study, which ended on February 28, 1982, and deaths due to coronary heart disease, monitored through 1990. The non-fatal myocardial infarction occurred within 7 years of sample collection, whereas the majority of coronary heart disease deaths occurred more than 11 years after sample collection. Mean homocyst(e)ine concentrations were in the expected range and did not differ significantly between case patients and control subjects: myocardial infarction cases, 12.6 micromol/L; myocardial infarction controls, 13.1 micromol/L; coronary heart disease death cases, 12.8 micromol/L; and coronary heart disease controls, 12.7 micromol/L. Odds ratios versus quartile 1 for coronary heart disease deaths and myocardial infarctions combined were as follows: quartile 2, 1.03; quartile 3, 0.84; and quartile 4, 0.92. Thus, in this prospective study, no association of homocyst(e)ine concentration with heart disease was detected. Homocyst(e)ine levels were weakly associated with the acute-phase (C-reactive) protein. These results are discussed with respect to the suggestion that homocyst(e)ine is an independent risk factor for heart disease.

  15. Restriction genes for retroviruses influence the risk of multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nexø, Bjørn A; Hansen, Bettina; Nissen, Kari K

    2013-01-01

    known for a long time. Today human restriction genes for retroviruses include amongst others TRIMs, APOBEC3s, BST2 and TREXs. We have therefore looked for a role of these retroviral restriction genes in MS using genetic epidemiology. We here report that markers in two TRIMs, TRIM5 and TRIM22...... and a marker in BST2, associated statistically with the risk of getting MS, while markers in or near APOBEC3s and TREXs showed little or no effect. This indicates that the two TRIMs and BST2 influence the risk of disease and thus supports the hypothesis of a viral involvement....

  16. Risk based seismic design criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, R.P.

    1999-01-01

    In order to develop a risk based seismic design criteria the following four issues must be addressed: (1) What target annual probability of seismic induced unacceptable performance is acceptable? (2) What minimum seismic margin is acceptable? (3) Given the decisions made under Issues 1 and 2, at what annual frequency of exceedance should the safe-shutdown-earthquake (SSE) ground motion be defined? (4) What seismic design criteria should be established to reasonably achieve the seismic margin defined under Issue 2? The first issue is purely a policy decision and is not addressed in this paper. Each of the other three issues are addressed. Issues 2 and 3 are integrally tied together so that a very large number of possible combinations of responses to these two issues can be used to achieve the target goal defined under Issue 1. Section 2 lays out a combined approach to these two issues and presents three potentially attractive combined resolutions of these two issues which reasonably achieves the target goal. The remainder of the paper discusses an approach which can be used to develop seismic design criteria aimed at achieving the desired seismic margin defined in resolution of Issue 2. Suggestions for revising existing seismic design criteria to more consistently achieve the desired seismic margin are presented. (orig.)

  17. [Modular risk analysis for assessing multiple waste sites]: Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whelan, G.

    1994-01-01

    This document contains proceedings from the Integrated Planning Workshop from Strategic Planning to Baselining and Other Objectives. Topics discussed include: stakeholder involvement; regulations; future site use planning; site integration and baseline methods; risk analysis in decision making; land uses; and economics in decision making. Individual records have been processed separately for the database

  18. A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Relating Multiple SNPs within Multiple Genes to Disease Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lewei Duan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A variety of methods have been proposed for studying the association of multiple genes thought to be involved in a common pathway for a particular disease. Here, we present an extension of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling strategy that allows for multiple SNPs within each gene, with external prior information at either the SNP or gene level. The model involves variable selection at the SNP level through latent indicator variables and Bayesian shrinkage at the gene level towards a prior mean vector and covariance matrix that depend on external information. The entire model is fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Simulation studies show that the approach is capable of recovering many of the truly causal SNPs and genes, depending upon their frequency and size of their effects. The method is applied to data on 504 SNPs in 38 candidate genes involved in DNA damage response in the WECARE study of second breast cancers in relation to radiotherapy exposure.

  19. Multiple access chaotic digital communication based on generalized synchronization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu Junguo

    2005-01-01

    A novel method for multiple access chaotic digital communication based on the concept of chaos generalized synchronization and the on-line least square method is proposed. This method can be used for transmitting multiple digital information signals concurrently. We illustrate the method using a Lorenz system driving a Chua's circuit and then examine the robustness of the proposed method with respect to noise in communication channel

  20. 20 CFR 345.403 - Multiple base year employers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ..., benefits will be charged in reverse chronological order, but the amount charged to each base year employer...) In all other cases, benefits will be charged in the same ratio as the compensation paid to such... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Multiple base year employers. 345.403 Section...

  1. Risk-based methodology for USNRC inspections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, S.M.; Holahan, G.M.; Chung, J.W.; Johnson, M.R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes the development and trial applications of a risk-based methodology to enhance the inspection processes for US nuclear power plants. Objectives of risk-based methods to complement prescriptive engineering approaches in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) inspection programs are presented. Insights from time-dependent risk profiles of plant configurational from Individual Plant Evaluation (IPE) studies were integrated to develop a framework for optimizing inspection efforts in NRC regulatory initiatives. Lessons learned from NRC pilot applications of the risk-based methodology for evaluation of the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at US nuclear power plant sites are also discussed

  2. RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chang LEE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

  3. Taking Multiple Exposure Into Account Can Improve Assessment of Chemical Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clerc, Frédéric; Bertrand, Nicolas Jean Hyacinthe; La Rocca, Bénédicte

    2017-12-15

    During work, operators may be exposed to several chemicals simultaneously. Most exposure assessment approaches only determine exposure levels for each substance individually. However, such individual-substance approaches may not correctly estimate the toxicity of 'cocktails' of chemicals, as the toxicity of a cocktail may differ from the toxicity of substances on their own. This study presents an approach that can better take into account multiple exposure when assessing chemical risks. Almost 30000 work situations, monitored between 2005 and 2014 and recorded in two French databases, were analysed using MiXie software. The algorithms employed in MiXie can identify toxicological classes associated with several substances, based on the additivity of the selected effects of each substance. The results of our retrospective analysis show that MiXie was able to identify almost 20% more potentially hazardous situations than identified using a single-substance approach. It therefore appears essential to review the ways in which multiple exposure is taken into account during risk assessment. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

  4. Estimation of effective dose and lifetime attributable risk from multiple head CT scans in ventriculoperitoneal shunted children

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aw-Zoretic, J.; Seth, D.; Katzman, G.; Sammet, S.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this review is to determine the averaged effective dose and lifetime attributable risk factor from multiple head computed tomography (CT) dose data on children with ventriculoperitoneal shunts (VPS). Method and materials: A total of 422 paediatric head CT exams were found between October 2008 and January 2011 and retrospectively reviewed. The CT dose data was weighted with the latest IRCP 103 conversion factor to obtain the effective dose per study and the averaged effective dose was calculated. Estimates of the lifetime attributable risk were also calculated from the averaged effective dose using a conversion factor from the latest BEIR VII report. Results: Our study found the highest effective doses in neonates and the lowest effective doses were observed in the 10–18 years age group. We estimated a 0.007% potential increase risk in neonates and 0.001% potential increased risk in teenagers over the base risk. Conclusion: Multiple head CTs in children equates to a slight potential increase risk in lifetime attributable risk over the baseline risk for cancer, slightly higher in neonates relative to teenagers. The potential risks versus clinical benefit must be assessed

  5. Using Information on Exposure to Characterizing Risks to Human Health from Concurrent Exposures to Multiple Chemicals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mr Price, PSP

    2012-01-01

    This thesis explores the concept of using exposure information to understand, organize, and manage the risks associated with cumulative exposures to chemicals (exposures to multiple chemicals from multiple sources). The issue of cumulative exposures was identified in more than 30 years ago, but in

  6. Multiple exciton generation in quantum dot-based solar cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwin, Heather; Jellicoe, Tom C.; Davis, Nathaniel J. L. K.; Böhm, Marcus L.

    2018-01-01

    Multiple exciton generation (MEG) in quantum-confined semiconductors is the process by which multiple bound charge-carrier pairs are generated after absorption of a single high-energy photon. Such charge-carrier multiplication effects have been highlighted as particularly beneficial for solar cells where they have the potential to increase the photocurrent significantly. Indeed, recent research efforts have proved that more than one charge-carrier pair per incident solar photon can be extracted in photovoltaic devices incorporating quantum-confined semiconductors. While these proof-of-concept applications underline the potential of MEG in solar cells, the impact of the carrier multiplication effect on the device performance remains rather low. This review covers recent advancements in the understanding and application of MEG as a photocurrent-enhancing mechanism in quantum dot-based photovoltaics.

  7. A 2:1 MUX Based on Multiple MEMS Resonators

    KAUST Repository

    Hafiz, Md Abdullah Al

    2017-01-09

    Micro/nano-electromechanical resonator based mechanical computing has recently attracted significant attention. This paper reports a realization of a 2:1 MUX, a concatenable digital logic element, based on electrothermal frequency tuning of electrically connected multiple arch resonators. Toward this, shallow arch shaped microresonators are electrically connected and their resonance frequencies are tuned based on an electrothermal frequency modulation scheme. This study demonstrates that by reconfiguring the same basic building block, the arch microresonator, complex logic circuits can be realized.

  8. A 2:1 MUX Based on Multiple MEMS Resonators

    KAUST Repository

    Hafiz, Md Abdullah Al; Kosuru, Lakshmoji; Younis, Mohammad I.; Fariborzi, Hossein

    2017-01-01

    Micro/nano-electromechanical resonator based mechanical computing has recently attracted significant attention. This paper reports a realization of a 2:1 MUX, a concatenable digital logic element, based on electrothermal frequency tuning of electrically connected multiple arch resonators. Toward this, shallow arch shaped microresonators are electrically connected and their resonance frequencies are tuned based on an electrothermal frequency modulation scheme. This study demonstrates that by reconfiguring the same basic building block, the arch microresonator, complex logic circuits can be realized.

  9. Multiple infrared bands absorber based on multilayer gratings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaoyi; Gao, Jinsong; Yang, Haigui; Wang, Xiaoyi; Guo, Chengli

    2018-03-01

    The present study offers an Ag/Si multilayer-grating microstructure based on an Si substrate. The microstructure exhibits designable narrowband absorption in multiple infrared wavebands, especially in mid- and long-wave infrared atmospheric windows. We investigate its resonance mode mechanism, and calculate the resonance wavelengths by the Fabry-Perot and metal-insulator-metal theories for comparison with the simulation results. Furthermore, we summarize the controlling rules of the absorption peak wavelength of the microstructure to provide a new method for generating a Si-based device with multiple working bands in infrared.

  10. Vehicle coordinated transportation dispatching model base on multiple crisis locations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Ran; Li, Shanwei; Yang, Guoying

    2018-05-01

    Many disastrous events are often caused after unconventional emergencies occur, and the requirements of disasters are often different. It is difficult for a single emergency resource center to satisfy such requirements at the same time. Therefore, how to coordinate the emergency resources stored by multiple emergency resource centers to various disaster sites requires the coordinated transportation of emergency vehicles. In this paper, according to the problem of emergency logistics coordination scheduling, based on the related constraints of emergency logistics transportation, an emergency resource scheduling model based on multiple disasters is established.

  11. Backtesting for Risk-Based Regulatory Capital

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.; Melenberg, B.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we present a framework for backtesting all currently popular risk measurement methods (including value-at-risk and expected shortfall) using the functional delta method.Estimation risk can be taken explicitly into account.Based on a simulation study we provide evidence that tests for

  12. Deep convolutional neural network based antenna selection in multiple-input multiple-output system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Jiaxin; Li, Yan; Hu, Ying

    2018-03-01

    Antenna selection of wireless communication system has attracted increasing attention due to the challenge of keeping a balance between communication performance and computational complexity in large-scale Multiple-Input MultipleOutput antenna systems. Recently, deep learning based methods have achieved promising performance for large-scale data processing and analysis in many application fields. This paper is the first attempt to introduce the deep learning technique into the field of Multiple-Input Multiple-Output antenna selection in wireless communications. First, the label of attenuation coefficients channel matrix is generated by minimizing the key performance indicator of training antenna systems. Then, a deep convolutional neural network that explicitly exploits the massive latent cues of attenuation coefficients is learned on the training antenna systems. Finally, we use the adopted deep convolutional neural network to classify the channel matrix labels of test antennas and select the optimal antenna subset. Simulation experimental results demonstrate that our method can achieve better performance than the state-of-the-art baselines for data-driven based wireless antenna selection.

  13. A new bootstrap test for multiple assets joint risk testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ardia, David; Gatarek, Lukasz; Hoogerheide, Lennart F.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, a novel simulation-based methodology is proposed to test the validity of a set of marginal time series models, where the dependence structure between the time series is taken directly from the observed data. The procedure is useful when one wants to summarize the test results for

  14. A self-determination multiple risk intervention trial to improve smokers' health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Geoffrey C; McGregor, Holly; Sharp, Daryl; Kouldes, Ruth W; Lévesque, Chantal S; Ryan, Richard M; Deci, Edward L

    2006-12-01

    Little is known about how interventions motivate individuals to change multiple health risk behaviors. Self-determination theory (SDT) proposes that patient autonomy is an essential factor for motivating change. An SDT-based intervention to enhance autonomous motivation for tobacco abstinence and improving cholesterol was tested. The Smokers' Health Study is a randomized multiple risk behavior change intervention trial. Smokers were recruited to a tobacco treatment center. A total of 1.006 adult smokers were recruited between 1999 and 2002 from physician offices and by newspaper advertisements. A 6-month clinical intervention (4 contacts) to facilitate internalization of autonomy and perceived competence for tobacco abstinence and reduced percent calories from fat was compared with community care. Clinicians elicited patient perspectives and life strivings, provided absolute coronary artery disease risk estimates,enumerated effective treatment options, supported patient initiatives,minimized clinician control, assessed motivation for change, and developed a plan for change. Twelve-month prolonged tobacco abstinence, and change in percent calories from fat and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) from baseline to 18 months. RESULTS- Intention to treat analyses revealed that the intervention significantly increased 12-month prolonged tobacco abstinence (6.2% vs 2.4%; odds ratio [OR]=2.7, P=.01, number needed to treat [NNT] =26), and reduced LDL-C (-8.9 vs -4.1 mg/dL; P=.05). There was no effect on percent calories from fat. An intervention focused on supporting smokers'autonomy was effective in increasing prolonged tobacco abstinence and lowering LDL-C. Clinical interventions for behavior change may be improved by increasing patient autonomy and perceived competence.

  15. Iodine-based contrast media, multiple myeloma and monoclonal gammopathies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacul, Fulvio; Bertolotto, Michele; Thomsen, Henrik S

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Many radiologists and clinicians still consider multiple myeloma (MM) and monoclonal gammopathies (MG) a contraindication for using iodine-based contrast media. The ESUR Contrast Media Safety Committee performed a systematic review of the incidence of post-contrast acute kidney injury...

  16. Risk-based SMA for Cubesats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitner, Jesse

    2016-01-01

    This presentation conveys an approach for risk-based safety and mission assurance applied to cubesats. This presentation accompanies a NASA Goddard standard in development that provides guidance for building a mission success plan for cubesats based on the risk tolerance and resources available.

  17. SDG and qualitative trend based model multiple scale validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Dong; Xu, Xin; Yin, Jianjin; Zhang, Hongyu; Zhang, Beike

    2017-09-01

    Verification, Validation and Accreditation (VV&A) is key technology of simulation and modelling. For the traditional model validation methods, the completeness is weak; it is carried out in one scale; it depends on human experience. The SDG (Signed Directed Graph) and qualitative trend based multiple scale validation is proposed. First the SDG model is built and qualitative trends are added to the model. And then complete testing scenarios are produced by positive inference. The multiple scale validation is carried out by comparing the testing scenarios with outputs of simulation model in different scales. Finally, the effectiveness is proved by carrying out validation for a reactor model.

  18. Multi-lane detection based on multiple vanishing points detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chuanxiang; Nie, Yiming; Dai, Bin; Wu, Tao

    2015-03-01

    Lane detection plays a significant role in Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) for intelligent vehicles. In this paper we present a multi-lane detection method based on multiple vanishing points detection. A new multi-lane model assumes that a single lane, which has two approximately parallel boundaries, may not parallel to others on road plane. Non-parallel lanes associate with different vanishing points. A biological plausibility model is used to detect multiple vanishing points and fit lane model. Experimental results show that the proposed method can detect both parallel lanes and non-parallel lanes.

  19. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  20. Cell-based therapeutic strategies for multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scolding, Neil J; Pasquini, Marcelo; Reingold, Stephen C; Cohen, Jeffrey A

    2017-11-01

    The availability of multiple disease-modifying medications with regulatory approval to treat multiple sclerosis illustrates the substantial progress made in therapy of the disease. However, all are only partially effective in preventing inflammatory tissue damage in the central nervous system and none directly promotes repair. Cell-based therapies, including immunoablation followed by autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation, mesenchymal and related stem cell transplantation, pharmacologic manipulation of endogenous stem cells to enhance their reparative capabilities, and transplantation of oligodendrocyte progenitor cells, have generated substantial interest as novel therapeutic strategies for immune modulation, neuroprotection, or repair of the damaged central nervous system in multiple sclerosis. Each approach has potential advantages but also safety concerns and unresolved questions. Moreover, clinical trials of cell-based therapies present several unique methodological and ethical issues. We summarize here the status of cell-based therapies to treat multiple sclerosis and make consensus recommendations for future research and clinical trials. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain.

  1. MR-based conductivity imaging using multiple receiver coils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Joonsung; Shin, Jaewook; Kim, Dong-Hyun

    2016-08-01

    To propose a signal combination method for MR-based tissue conductivity mapping using a standard clinical scanner with multiple receiver coils. The theory of the proposed method is presented with two practical approaches, a coil-specific approach and a subject-specific approach. Conductivity maps were reconstructed using the transceive phase of the combined signal. The sensitivities of the coefficients used for signal combination were analyzed and the method was compared with other signal combination methods. For validation, multiple receiver brain coils and multiple receiver breast coils were used in phantom, in vivo brain, and in vivo breast studies. The variation among the conductivity estimates was conductivity estimates. MR-based tissue conductivity mapping is feasible when using a standard clinical MR scanner with multiple receiver coils. The proposed method reduces systematic errors in phase-based conductivity mapping that can occur due to the inhomogeneous magnitude of the combined receive profile. Magn Reson Med 76:530-539, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Investigation of Flood Risk Assessment in Inaccessible Regions using Multiple Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, J.; Lee, K. S.

    2017-12-01

    Flooding is extremely dangerous when a river overflows to inundate an urban area. From 1995 to 2016, North Korea (NK) experienced annual extensive damage to life and property almost each year due to a levee breach resulting from typhoons and heavy rainfall during the summer monsoon season. Recently, Hoeryeong City (2016) experienced heavy rainfall during typhoon Lionrock and the resulting flood killed and injured many people (68,900) and destroyed numerous buildings and settlements (11,600). The NK state media described it as the biggest national disaster since 1945. Thus, almost all annual repeat occurrences of floods in NK have had a serious impact, which makes it necessary to figure out the extent of floods in restoring the damaged environment. In addition, traditional hydrological model is impractical to delineate Flood Damaged Areas (FDAs) in NK due to the inaccessibility. Under such a situation, multiple optical Remote Sensing (RS) and radar RS along with a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based spatial analysis were utilized in this study (1) to develop modelling FDA delineation using multiple RS and GIS methods and (2) to conduct flood risk assessment in NK. Interpreting high-resolution web-based satellite imagery were also implemented to confirm the results of the study. From the study result, it was found that (1) on August 30th, 2016, an area of 117.2 km2 (8.6%) at Hoeryeong City was inundated. Most floods occurred in flat areas with a lower and middle stream order. (2) In the binary logistic regression model applied in this study, the distance from the nearest stream map and landform map variables are important factors to delineate FDAs because these two factors reflect heterogeneous mountainous NK topography. (3) Total annual flood risk of study area is estimated to be ₩454.13 million NKW ($504,417.24 USD, and ₩576.53 million SKW). The risk of the confluence of the Tumen River and Hoeryeong stream appears to be the highest. (4) High resolution

  3. Risk Probability Estimating Based on Clustering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yong; Jensen, Christian D.; Gray, Elizabeth

    2003-01-01

    of prior experiences, recommendations from a trusted entity or the reputation of the other entity. In this paper we propose a dynamic mechanism for estimating the risk probability of a certain interaction in a given environment using hybrid neural networks. We argue that traditional risk assessment models...... from the insurance industry do not directly apply to ubiquitous computing environments. Instead, we propose a dynamic mechanism for risk assessment, which is based on pattern matching, classification and prediction procedures. This mechanism uses an estimator of risk probability, which is based...

  4. Blended Risk Approach in Applying PSA Models to Risk-Based Regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimitrijevic, V. B.; Chapman, J. R.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, the authors will discuss a modern approach in applying PSA models in risk-based regulation. The Blended Risk Approach is a combination of traditional and probabilistic processes. It is receiving increased attention in different industries in the U. S. and abroad. The use of the deterministic regulations and standards provides a proven and well understood basis on which to assess and communicate the impact of change to plant design and operation. Incorporation of traditional values into risk evaluation is working very well in the blended approach. This approach is very application specific. It includes multiple risk attributes, qualitative risk analysis, and basic deterministic principles. In blending deterministic and probabilistic principles, this approach ensures that the objectives of the traditional defense-in-depth concept are not compromised and the design basis of the plant is explicitly considered. (author)

  5. MFAM: Multiple Frequency Adaptive Model-Based Indoor Localization Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuta, Jure; Juric, Matjaz B

    2018-03-24

    This paper presents MFAM (Multiple Frequency Adaptive Model-based localization method), a novel model-based indoor localization method that is capable of using multiple wireless signal frequencies simultaneously. It utilizes indoor architectural model and physical properties of wireless signal propagation through objects and space. The motivation for developing multiple frequency localization method lies in the future Wi-Fi standards (e.g., 802.11ah) and the growing number of various wireless signals present in the buildings (e.g., Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, ZigBee, etc.). Current indoor localization methods mostly rely on a single wireless signal type and often require many devices to achieve the necessary accuracy. MFAM utilizes multiple wireless signal types and improves the localization accuracy over the usage of a single frequency. It continuously monitors signal propagation through space and adapts the model according to the changes indoors. Using multiple signal sources lowers the required number of access points for a specific signal type while utilizing signals, already present in the indoors. Due to the unavailability of the 802.11ah hardware, we have evaluated proposed method with similar signals; we have used 2.4 GHz Wi-Fi and 868 MHz HomeMatic home automation signals. We have performed the evaluation in a modern two-bedroom apartment and measured mean localization error 2.0 to 2.3 m and median error of 2.0 to 2.2 m. Based on our evaluation results, using two different signals improves the localization accuracy by 18% in comparison to 2.4 GHz Wi-Fi-only approach. Additional signals would improve the accuracy even further. We have shown that MFAM provides better accuracy than competing methods, while having several advantages for real-world usage.

  6. MFAM: Multiple Frequency Adaptive Model-Based Indoor Localization Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jure Tuta

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents MFAM (Multiple Frequency Adaptive Model-based localization method, a novel model-based indoor localization method that is capable of using multiple wireless signal frequencies simultaneously. It utilizes indoor architectural model and physical properties of wireless signal propagation through objects and space. The motivation for developing multiple frequency localization method lies in the future Wi-Fi standards (e.g., 802.11ah and the growing number of various wireless signals present in the buildings (e.g., Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, ZigBee, etc.. Current indoor localization methods mostly rely on a single wireless signal type and often require many devices to achieve the necessary accuracy. MFAM utilizes multiple wireless signal types and improves the localization accuracy over the usage of a single frequency. It continuously monitors signal propagation through space and adapts the model according to the changes indoors. Using multiple signal sources lowers the required number of access points for a specific signal type while utilizing signals, already present in the indoors. Due to the unavailability of the 802.11ah hardware, we have evaluated proposed method with similar signals; we have used 2.4 GHz Wi-Fi and 868 MHz HomeMatic home automation signals. We have performed the evaluation in a modern two-bedroom apartment and measured mean localization error 2.0 to 2.3 m and median error of 2.0 to 2.2 m. Based on our evaluation results, using two different signals improves the localization accuracy by 18% in comparison to 2.4 GHz Wi-Fi-only approach. Additional signals would improve the accuracy even further. We have shown that MFAM provides better accuracy than competing methods, while having several advantages for real-world usage.

  7. Central Decoding for Multiple Description Codes based on Domain Partitioning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Spiertz

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Multiple Description Codes (MDC can be used to trade redundancy against packet loss resistance for transmitting data over lossy diversity networks. In this work we focus on MD transform coding based on domain partitioning. Compared to Vaishampayan’s quantizer based MDC, domain based MD coding is a simple approach for generating different descriptions, by using different quantizers for each description. Commonly, only the highest rate quantizer is used for reconstruction. In this paper we investigate the benefit of using the lower rate quantizers to enhance the reconstruction quality at decoder side. The comparison is done on artificial source data and on image data. 

  8. Development of new risk based regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, L.

    1999-01-01

    A short presentation of the oil and gas industry in Norway, and a brief overview of the regulatory regime in the petroleum sector in Norway is given. Risk analysis has been performed in Norway since 1981 and the various applications will be described. These risk analyses are quite different from a nuclear PSA and some of these differences will be commented. Risk based optimisation techniques such as RCM (Reliability Centred Maintenance) and Risk Based Inspection is used in the industry, with very limited support from the risk analysis. Some of the limitation that exist when such techniques are imported from other industries will be commented on. NPD (Norwegian Petroleum Directorate) is revising our regulations and some of the future plants when it comes to risk informed regulatory requirements will be presented. (au)

  9. Imputation and subset-based association analysis across different cancer types identifies multiple independent risk loci in the TERT-CLPTM1L region on chromosome 5p15.33

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Zhaoming; Zhu, Bin; Zhang, Mingfeng

    2014-01-01

    Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have mapped risk alleles for at least 10 distinct cancers to a small region of 63 000 bp on chromosome 5p15.33. This region harbors the TERT and CLPTM1L genes; the former encodes the catalytic subunit of telomerase reverse transcriptase and the latter may pl...

  10. Operational tools to build a multicriteria territorial risk scale with multiple stakeholders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cailloux, Olivier; Mayag, Brice; Meyer, Patrick; Mousseau, Vincent

    2013-01-01

    Evaluating and comparing the threats and vulnerabilities associated with territorial zones according to multiple criteria (industrial activity, population, etc.) can be a time-consuming task and often requires the participation of several stakeholders. Rather than a direct evaluation of these zones, building a risk assessment scale and using it in a formal procedure permits to automate the assessment and therefore to apply it in a repeated way and in large-scale contexts and, provided the chosen procedure and scale are accepted, to make it objective. One of the main difficulties of building such a formal evaluation procedure is to account for the multiple decision makers' preferences. The procedure used in this article, ELECTRE TRI, uses the performances of each territorial zone on multiple criteria, together with preferential parameters from multiple decision makers, to qualitatively assess their associated risk level. We also present operational tools in order to implement such a procedure in practice, and show their use on a detailed example

  11. Risk based limits for Operational Safety Requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cappucci, A.J. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    OSR limits are designed to protect the assumptions made in the facility safety analysis in order to preserve the safety envelope during facility operation. Normally, limits are set based on ''worst case conditions'' without regard to the likelihood (frequency) of a credible event occurring. In special cases where the accident analyses are based on ''time at risk'' arguments, it may be desirable to control the time at which the facility is at risk. A methodology has been developed to use OSR limits to control the source terms and the times these source terms would be available, thus controlling the acceptable risk to a nuclear process facility. The methodology defines a new term ''gram-days''. This term represents the area under a source term (inventory) vs time curve which represents the risk to the facility. Using the concept of gram-days (normalized to one year) allows the use of an accounting scheme to control the risk under the inventory vs time curve. The methodology results in at least three OSR limits: (1) control of the maximum inventory or source term, (2) control of the maximum gram-days for the period based on a source term weighted average, and (3) control of the maximum gram-days at the individual source term levels. Basing OSR limits on risk based safety analysis is feasible, and a basis for development of risk based limits is defensible. However, monitoring inventories and the frequencies required to maintain facility operation within the safety envelope may be complex and time consuming

  12. Concurrent multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents in Luangnamtha province, Lao PDR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomsen Sarah

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Multiple health risk behaviors (HRBs among adolescents pose a threat to their health, including HIV/AIDS. Health risk behaviors such as alcohol use, smoking, substance use, and sexual risk behaviors among youth have been shown to co-occur with each others. The objectives of this study was to estimate the prevalence of single and concurrent health risk behaviors and to explore how health risk behavior is associated with socio-demographic factors and peers' behaviors. Methods A cross sectional design was used to examine health risk behaviors of adolescents between the age 14 and 19 years living in the Luangnamtha province, Lao PDR. The study was conducted between June and August, 2008. An ordinal logistic regression model that simultaneously explored demographic factors and the influence of the behavior of peers on three categories of multiple HRBs (no risk, one risk, and two or more health risk behaviors was performed. Results A total of 1360 respondents, 669 (49.1% boys with mean age 16.7 ± 1.6 and 699 (50.9% girls aged 16.1 ± 1.5 were recruited into the study. The majority reported two or fewer risk behaviors. However, multiple risk behaviors increased with age for both sexes. About 46.8% (n = 637 reported no risk, 39.3 percent (n = 535 reported one risk, 8.1 percent (n = 110 reported two risks, and 5.8 percent reported more than two health risk behaviors. The protective factors among boys were school attendance (OR = .53, CI = .33-.86, being Hmong and Yao ethnicity (OR = .48, CI-.26-.90, while being above the age of 15 (OR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.33-3.60, Akha ethnicity (OR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.04-4.61, peer's smoking (OR = 3.11, 95% CI = 2.1-4.6, and peer's drinking alcohol (OR = 1.88, 95% CI = 1.1-3.21 were significantly associated with the presence of multiple risk behaviors among boys. Having some education (OR = 0.17, 95% CI = 0.06-0.45, and being of Hmong and Yao ethnicity (OR = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.18-0.80 were factors that

  13. Intelligent fault recognition strategy based on adaptive optimized multiple centers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Bo; Li, Yan-Feng; Huang, Hong-Zhong

    2018-06-01

    For the recognition principle based optimized single center, one important issue is that the data with nonlinear separatrix cannot be recognized accurately. In order to solve this problem, a novel recognition strategy based on adaptive optimized multiple centers is proposed in this paper. This strategy recognizes the data sets with nonlinear separatrix by the multiple centers. Meanwhile, the priority levels are introduced into the multi-objective optimization, including recognition accuracy, the quantity of optimized centers, and distance relationship. According to the characteristics of various data, the priority levels are adjusted to ensure the quantity of optimized centers adaptively and to keep the original accuracy. The proposed method is compared with other methods, including support vector machine (SVM), neural network, and Bayesian classifier. The results demonstrate that the proposed strategy has the same or even better recognition ability on different distribution characteristics of data.

  14. A Concurrent Multiple Negotiation Protocol Based on Colored Petri Nets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Lei; Ren, Fenghui; Zhang, Minjie; Bai, Quan

    2017-11-01

    Concurrent multiple negotiation (CMN) provides a mechanism for an agent to simultaneously conduct more than one negotiation. There may exist different interdependency relationships among these negotiations and these interdependency relationships can impact the outcomes of these negotiations. The outcomes of these concurrent negotiations contribute together for the agent to achieve an overall negotiation goal. Handling a CMN while considering interdependency relationships among multiple negotiations is a challenging research problem. This paper: 1) comprehensively highlights research problems of negotiations at concurrent negotiation level; 2) provides a graph-based CMN model with consideration of the interdependency relationships; and 3) proposes a colored Petri net-based negotiation protocol for conducting CMNs. With the proposed protocol, a CMN can be efficiently and concurrently processed and negotiation agreements can be efficiently achieved. Experimental results indicate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed protocol in terms of the negotiation success rate, the negotiation time and the negotiation outcome.

  15. Risk based inspection for atmospheric storage tank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nugroho, Agus; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is an attack that occurs on a metallic material as a result of environment's reaction.Thus, it causes atmospheric storage tank's leakage, material loss, environmental pollution, equipment failure and affects the age of process equipment then finally financial damage. Corrosion risk measurement becomesa vital part of Asset Management at the plant for operating any aging asset.This paper provides six case studies dealing with high speed diesel atmospheric storage tank parts at a power plant. A summary of the basic principles and procedures of corrosion risk analysis and RBI applicable to the Process Industries were discussed prior to the study. Semi quantitative method based onAPI 58I Base-Resource Document was employed. The risk associated with corrosion on the equipment in terms of its likelihood and its consequences were discussed. The corrosion risk analysis outcome used to formulate Risk Based Inspection (RBI) method that should be a part of the atmospheric storage tank operation at the plant. RBI gives more concern to inspection resources which are mostly on `High Risk' and `Medium Risk' criteria and less on `Low Risk' shell. Risk categories of the evaluated equipment were illustrated through case study analysis outcome.

  16. Cell-based therapeutic strategies for multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scolding, Neil J; Pasquini, Marcelo; Reingold, Stephen C

    2017-01-01

    and none directly promotes repair. Cell-based therapies, including immunoablation followed by autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation, mesenchymal and related stem cell transplantation, pharmacologic manipulation of endogenous stem cells to enhance their reparative capabilities......, and transplantation of oligodendrocyte progenitor cells, have generated substantial interest as novel therapeutic strategies for immune modulation, neuroprotection, or repair of the damaged central nervous system in multiple sclerosis. Each approach has potential advantages but also safety concerns and unresolved...

  17. Environmental Assessment: Multiple Projects at Laughlin Air Force Base, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-05-17

    Publico sobre el La Evaluation de lmpacto Ambiental de MUltiples Proyectos en Ia Base de Ia Fuerza Aerea Laughlin De acuerdo con el Acta Nacional de 1...which emphasizes frequencies in the middle of the audible spectrum and de -emphasizes low and high frequencies in a manner corresponding to the way the...feet from the source. Assuming that noise from the heavy equipment radiates equally in all directions, the sound intensity diminishes inversely as the

  18. Multiplicative Effects of Social and Psychological Risk Factors on College Students’ Suicidal Behaviors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shervin Assari

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Less is known about the multiplicative effects of social and psychological risk and protective factors of suicidality on college campuses. The current study aimed to investigate the multiplicative effects of social (identifying oneself as gay/lesbian, financial difficulty, violence victimization, and religiosity and psychological (anxiety, depression, problem alcohol use, drug use and risk/protective factors on suicidal behaviors among college students in the United States. Using a cross-sectional design, the Healthy Mind Study (HMS; 2016–2017, is a national online survey of college students in the United States. Social (identifying oneself as gay/lesbian, violence victimization, financial difficulty, and religiosity and psychological (anxiety, depression, problem alcohol use, and drug use risk/protective factors were assessed among 27,961 individuals. Three aspects of suicidality, including ideation, plan, and attempt, were also assessed. Logistic regression models were used for data analysis. Financial difficulty, violence victimization, identifying oneself as gay/lesbian, anxiety, depression, and drug use increased, while religiosity reduced the odds of suicidal behaviors. Multiplicative effects were found between the following social and psychological risk factors: (1 financial difficulty and anxiety; (2 financial difficulty and depression; (3 depression and drug use; (4 problem alcohol use and drug use; and (5 depression and problem alcohol use. There is a considerable overlap in the social and psychological processes, such as financial stress, mood disorders, and substance use problems, on risk of suicide in college students. As social and psychological risk factors do not operate independently, comprehensive suicidal risk evaluations that simultaneously address multiple social and psychological risk factors may be superior to programs that only address a single risk factor.

  19. Risk Based Optimal Fatigue Testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, M.H.; Kroon, I.B.

    1992-01-01

    Optimal fatigue life testing of materials is considered. Based on minimization of the total expected costs of a mechanical component a strategy is suggested to determine the optimal stress range levels for which additional experiments are to be performed together with an optimal value...

  20. Risk Evaluation of Multiple Hazards during Sediment and Water Related Disasters in a Small Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamanoi, Kazuki; Fujita, Masaharu

    2016-04-01

    To reduce human damage due to sediment and water related disasters induced by heavy rainfall, warning and evacuation system is very important. In Japan, the Meteorological Agency issues the sediment disaster alert when the potential of sediment disaster increases. Following the alert, local government issues evacuation advisory considering the alert and premonitory phenomena. However, it is very difficult for local people to perceive the dangerousness around them because the alert and advisory do not contain any definite information. Therefore, they sometimes misjudge the evacuation action. One reason of this is not only crucial hazards but also relatively small-scale multiple hazards take place and rise evacuation difficulties during sediment and water related disaster. Examples of small-scale hazards include: rainfall-associated hazards such as poor visibility or road submergence; landslide-associated hazards such as slope failure or sediment inflow; and flood-associated hazards such as overtopping of river dike, inundation, or destruction of bridges. The purpose of this study was to estimate the risk of multiple hazards during disaster events by numerical simulation. We applied the integrated sediment runoff model on unit channels, unit slopes, and slope units to an actual sediment and water related disaster occurred in a small basin in Tamba city, Hyogo, Japan. The maximum rainfall per hour was 91 mm (17/09/2014 2:00˜3:00) and the maximum daily precipitation was 414mm. The integrated model contains semi-physical based landslide prediction (sediment production) model, rainfall runoff model employing the kinematic wave method, model of sediment supply to channels, and bedload and suspended sediment transport model. We evaluated the risk of rainfall-associated hazards in each slope unit into 4 levels (Level I ˜ IV) using the rainfall intensity Ir [mm/hour]. The risk of flood- associated hazards were also estimated using the ratio of calculated water level and

  1. A comparison of perinatal outcomes in singletons and multiples born after in vitro fertilization or intracytoplasmic sperm injection stratified for neonatal risk criteria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Heesch, M.M.J.; Evers, J.L.H.; Dumoulin, J.C.M.; van der Hoeven, M.A.H.B.; van Beijsterveldt, C.E.M.; Bonsel, G.J.; Dykgraaf, R.H.M.; van Goudoever, J.B.; Koopman-Esseboom, C.; Nelen, W.L.D.M.; Steiner, K.; Tamminga, P.; Tonch, N.; van Zonneveld, P.; Dirksen, C.D.

    2014-01-01

    Objective To compare perinatal singleton and multiple outcomes in a large Dutch in vitro fertilization (IVF)/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) population and within risk subgroups. Newborns were assigned to a risk category based on gestational age, birthweight, Apgar score and congenital

  2. A comparison of perinatal outcomes in singletons and multiples born after in vitro fertilization or intracytoplasmic sperm injection stratified for neonatal risk criteria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heesch, M.M. van; Evers, J.L.H.; Dumoulin, J.C.; Hoeven, M.A. van der; Beijsterveldt, C.E. van; Bonsel, G.J.; Dykgraaf, R.H.; Goudoever, J.B. van; Koopman-Esseboom, C.; Nelen, W.L.D.M.; Steiner, K.; Tamminga, P.; Tonch, N.; Zonneveld, P. van; Dirksen, C.D.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To compare perinatal singleton and multiple outcomes in a large Dutch in vitro fertilization (IVF)/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) population and within risk subgroups. Newborns were assigned to a risk category based on gestational age, birthweight, Apgar score and congenital

  3. Health risks associated with ingesting venison from a uranium enrichment facility with multiple operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duncan, J.; Welsh, C.

    1995-01-01

    Ingestion of game, including venison, may be a significant exposure pathway in human health risk assessments at hazardous waste sites. The difficulty associated with modeling contaminant tissue concentrations in a wide-ranging herbivorous mammal is compounded when the home range of the mammal extends over multiple operable units (OUs) of varying size and media contaminant concentration. Using biotransfer factors extracted from the literature and species-specific parameter information (e.g., home range size, diet, forage and water ingestion rates) the authors estimate contaminant concentrations in venison based on soil and surface water contaminant concentrations and determine the contribution of individual OUs to modeled venison tissue concentrations. Estimated tissue concentrations are calculated through the use of site foraging factors (SFFS) that adjust exposure contributions from individual OUs to account for the size of the OU in relation to the animals home range. The authors then use the venison tissue concentrations to estimate human health risk associated with ingesting venison under both a current and future exposure scenario

  4. Integrative assessment of multiple pesticides as risk factors for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma among men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Roos, A J; Zahm, S H; Cantor, K P; Weisenburger, D D; Holmes, F F; Burmeister, L F; Blair, A

    2003-09-01

    An increased rate of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) has been repeatedly observed among farmers, but identification of specific exposures that explain this observation has proven difficult. During the 1980s, the National Cancer Institute conducted three case-control studies of NHL in the midwestern United States. These pooled data were used to examine pesticide exposures in farming as risk factors for NHL in men. The large sample size (n = 3417) allowed analysis of 47 pesticides simultaneously, controlling for potential confounding by other pesticides in the model, and adjusting the estimates based on a prespecified variance to make them more stable. Reported use of several individual pesticides was associated with increased NHL incidence, including organophosphate insecticides coumaphos, diazinon, and fonofos, insecticides chlordane, dieldrin, and copper acetoarsenite, and herbicides atrazine, glyphosate, and sodium chlorate. A subanalysis of these "potentially carcinogenic" pesticides suggested a positive trend of risk with exposure to increasing numbers. Consideration of multiple exposures is important in accurately estimating specific effects and in evaluating realistic exposure scenarios.

  5. Combining MCDA and risk analysis: dealing with scaling issues in the multiplicative AHP

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn; van den Honert, Rob; Salling, Kim Bang

    the progression factor 2 is used for calculating scores of alternatives and √2 for calculation of criteria weights when transforming the verbal judgments stemming from pair wise comparisons. However, depending on the decision context, the decision-makers aversion towards risk, etc., it is most likely......This paper proposes a new decision support system (DSS) for applying risk analysis and stochastic simulation to the multiplicative AHP in order to deal with issues concerning the progression factors. The multiplicative AHP makes use of direct rating on a logarithmic scale, and for this purpose...

  6. A model-based risk management framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune

    2002-08-15

    The ongoing research activity addresses these issues through two co-operative activities. The first is the IST funded research project CORAS, where Institutt for energiteknikk takes part as responsible for the work package for Risk Analysis. The main objective of the CORAS project is to develop a framework to support risk assessment of security critical systems. The second, called the Halden Open Dependability Demonstrator (HODD), is established in cooperation between Oestfold University College, local companies and HRP. The objective of HODD is to provide an open-source test bed for testing, teaching and learning about risk analysis methods, risk analysis tools, and fault tolerance techniques. The Inverted Pendulum Control System (IPCON), which main task is to keep a pendulum balanced and controlled, is the first system that has been established. In order to make risk assessment one need to know what a system does, or is intended to do. Furthermore, the risk assessment requires correct descriptions of the system, its context and all relevant features. A basic assumption is that a precise model of this knowledge, based on formal or semi-formal descriptions, such as UML, will facilitate a systematic risk assessment. It is also necessary to have a framework to integrate the different risk assessment methods. The experiences so far support this hypothesis. This report presents CORAS and the CORAS model-based risk management framework, including a preliminary guideline for model-based risk assessment. The CORAS framework for model-based risk analysis offers a structured and systematic approach to identify and assess security issues of ICT systems. From the initial assessment of IPCON, we also believe that the framework is applicable in a safety context. Further work on IPCON, as well as the experiences from the CORAS trials, will provide insight and feedback for further improvements. (Author)

  7. WTS - Risk Based Resource Targeting (RBRT) -

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — The Risk Based Resource Targeting (RBRT) application supports a new SMS-structured process designed to focus on safety oversight of systems and processes rather than...

  8. Multiple sclerosis risk loci and disease severity in 7,125 individuals from 10 studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    George, Michaela F; Briggs, Farren B S; Shao, Xiaorong

    2016-01-01

    associated with disease severity after accounting for cohort, sex, age at onset, and HLA-DRB1*15:01. After restricting analyses to cases with disease duration ≥10 years, associations were null (p value ≥0.05). No SNP was associated with disease severity after adjusting for multiple testing. CONCLUSIONS......OBJECTIVE: We investigated the association between 52 risk variants identified through genome-wide association studies and disease severity in multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: Ten unique MS case data sets were analyzed. The Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) was calculated using the Expanded...

  9. A Multiple Criteria Decision Making Method Based on Relative Value Distances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shyur Huan-jyh

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new multiple criteria decision-making method called ERVD (election based on relative value distances. The s-shape value function is adopted to replace the expected utility function to describe the risk-averse and risk-seeking behavior of decision makers. Comparisons and experiments contrasting with the TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution method are carried out to verify the feasibility of using the proposed method to represent the decision makers’ preference in the decision making process. Our experimental results show that the proposed approach is an appropriate and effective MCDM method.

  10. Early alveolar and systemic mediator release in patients at different risks for ARDS after multiple trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymondos, Konstantinos; Martin, Michael U; Schmudlach, Tanja; Baus, Stefan; Weilbach, Christian; Welte, Tobias; Krettek, Christian; Frink, Michael; Hildebrand, Frank

    2012-02-01

    Alveolar IL-8 has been reported to early identify patients at-risk to develop ARDS. However, it remains unknown how alveolar IL-8 is related to pulmonary and systemic inflammation in patients predisposed for ARDS. We studied 24 patients 2-6h after multiple trauma. Patients with IL-8 >200 pg/ml in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) were assigned to the group at high risk for ARDS (H, n = 8) and patients with BAL IL-8 mediators. The enhanced alveolar and systemic inflammation associated with alveolar IL-8 release should be considered to identify high-risk patients for pulmonary complications after multiple trauma to adjust surgical and other treatment strategies to the individual risk profile. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Nonlinear Knowledge in Kernel-Based Multiple Criteria Programming Classifier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Dongling; Tian, Yingjie; Shi, Yong

    Kernel-based Multiple Criteria Linear Programming (KMCLP) model is used as classification methods, which can learn from training examples. Whereas, in traditional machine learning area, data sets are classified only by prior knowledge. Some works combine the above two classification principle to overcome the defaults of each approach. In this paper, we propose a model to incorporate the nonlinear knowledge into KMCLP in order to solve the problem when input consists of not only training example, but also nonlinear prior knowledge. In dealing with real world case breast cancer diagnosis, the model shows its better performance than the model solely based on training data.

  12. Risk definitions - risk research is done in multiple disciplines; but is it multidisciplinary?:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg-Beckhoff, Gabriele; Wiedemann, Peter; Adam, Balazs

    2015-01-01

    Background The aim of the project was to assess the definitions of hazard, risk, and their assessment used in different scientific disciplines and to give examples of the potential implications in the scientific discussions as well as in risk communication. Method The following disciplines were...... involved: public health, psychology, environmental health, occupational health, engineering, sociology and medicine. From each discipline a scientist was asked to present their own views on the given topics. Questions were developed together to get comparable responses from participants. Result......: The surprising result was that, when working together, pre-given major differences disappeared. Hazard is an adverse event or condition, mostly expressed in qualitative terms. For most risk definitions probability and severity are both important aspects and often a quantification of risk is desired, whereas risk...

  13. Associations between multiple health risk behaviors and mental health among Chinese college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Yong-ling; Wang, Pei-gang; Qu, Geng-cong; Yuan, Shuai; Phongsavan, Philayrath; He, Qi-qiang

    2016-01-01

    Although there is substantial evidence that health risk behaviors increase risks of premature morbidity and mortality, little is known about the multiple health risk behaviors in Chinese college students. Here, we investigated the prevalence of multiple health risk behaviors and its relation to mental health among Chinese college students. A cross-sectional study was conducted in Wuhan, China from May to June 2012. The students reported their health risk behaviors using self-administered questionnaires. Depression and anxiety were assessed using the self-rating depression scale and self-rating anxiety scale, respectively. A total of 2422 college students (1433 males) aged 19.7 ± 1.2 years were participated in the study. The prevalence of physical inactivity, sleep disturbance, poor dietary behavior, Internet addiction disorder (IAD), frequent alcohol use and current smoking was 62.0, 42.6, 29.8, 22.3, 11.6 and 9.3%, respectively. Significantly increased risks for depression and anxiety were found among students with frequent alcohol use, sleep disturbance, poor dietary behavior and IAD. Two-step cluster analysis identified two different clusters. Participants in the cluster with more unhealthy behaviors showed significantly increased risk for depression (odds ratio (OR): 2.21; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.83, 2.67) and anxiety (OR: 2.32; 95% CI: 1.85, 2.92). This study indicates that a relatively high prevalence of multiple health risk behaviors was found among Chinese college students. Furthermore, the clustering of health risk behaviors was significantly associated with increased risks for depression and anxiety.

  14. A method of risk assessment for a multi-plant site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, R.F.

    1983-06-01

    A model is presented which can be used in conjunction with probabilistic risk assessment to estimate whether a site on which there are several plants (reactors or chemical plants containing radioactive materials) meets whatever risk acceptance criteria or numerical risk guidelines are applied at the time of the assessment in relation to various groups of people and for various sources of risk. The application of the multi-plant site model to the direct and inverse methods of risk assessment is described. A method is proposed by which the potential hazard rating associated with a given plant can be quantified so that an appropriate allocation can be made when assessing the risks associated with each of the plants on a site. (author)

  15. Multiple kernel boosting framework based on information measure for classification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qi, Chengming; Wang, Yuping; Tian, Wenjie; Wang, Qun

    2016-01-01

    The performance of kernel-based method, such as support vector machine (SVM), is greatly affected by the choice of kernel function. Multiple kernel learning (MKL) is a promising family of machine learning algorithms and has attracted many attentions in recent years. MKL combines multiple sub-kernels to seek better results compared to single kernel learning. In order to improve the efficiency of SVM and MKL, in this paper, the Kullback–Leibler kernel function is derived to develop SVM. The proposed method employs an improved ensemble learning framework, named KLMKB, which applies Adaboost to learning multiple kernel-based classifier. In the experiment for hyperspectral remote sensing image classification, we employ feature selected through Optional Index Factor (OIF) to classify the satellite image. We extensively examine the performance of our approach in comparison to some relevant and state-of-the-art algorithms on a number of benchmark classification data sets and hyperspectral remote sensing image data set. Experimental results show that our method has a stable behavior and a noticeable accuracy for different data set.

  16. An integrated probabilistic risk analysis decision support methodology for systems with multiple state variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sen, P.; Tan, John K.G.; Spencer, David

    1999-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) methods have been proven to be valuable in risk and reliability analysis. However, a weak link seems to exist between methods for analysing risks and those for making rational decisions. The integrated decision support system (IDSS) methodology presented in this paper attempts to address this issue in a practical manner. In consists of three phases: a PRA phase, a risk sensitivity analysis (SA) phase and an optimisation phase, which are implemented through an integrated computer software system. In the risk analysis phase the problem is analysed by the Boolean representation method (BRM), a PRA method that can deal with systems with multiple state variables and feedback loops. In the second phase the results obtained from the BRM are utilised directly to perform importance and risk SA. In the third phase, the problem is formulated as a multiple objective decision making problem in the form of multiple objective reliability optimisation. An industrial example is included. The resultant solutions of a five objective reliability optimisation are presented, on the basis of which rational decision making can be explored

  17. Risk score modeling of multiple gene to gene interactions using aggregated-multifactor dimensionality reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dai Hongying

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR has been widely applied to detect gene-gene (GxG interactions associated with complex diseases. Existing MDR methods summarize disease risk by a dichotomous predisposing model (high-risk/low-risk from one optimal GxG interaction, which does not take the accumulated effects from multiple GxG interactions into account. Results We propose an Aggregated-Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (A-MDR method that exhaustively searches for and detects significant GxG interactions to generate an epistasis enriched gene network. An aggregated epistasis enriched risk score, which takes into account multiple GxG interactions simultaneously, replaces the dichotomous predisposing risk variable and provides higher resolution in the quantification of disease susceptibility. We evaluate this new A-MDR approach in a broad range of simulations. Also, we present the results of an application of the A-MDR method to a data set derived from Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis patients treated with methotrexate (MTX that revealed several GxG interactions in the folate pathway that were associated with treatment response. The epistasis enriched risk score that pooled information from 82 significant GxG interactions distinguished MTX responders from non-responders with 82% accuracy. Conclusions The proposed A-MDR is innovative in the MDR framework to investigate aggregated effects among GxG interactions. New measures (pOR, pRR and pChi are proposed to detect multiple GxG interactions.

  18. Homography-based multiple-camera person-tracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turk, Matthew R.

    2009-01-01

    Multiple video cameras are cheaply installed overlooking an area of interest. While computerized single-camera tracking is well-developed, multiple-camera tracking is a relatively new problem. The main multi-camera problem is to give the same tracking label to all projections of a real-world target. This is called the consistent labelling problem. Khan and Shah (2003) introduced a method to use field of view lines to perform multiple-camera tracking. The method creates inter-camera meta-target associations when objects enter at the scene edges. They also said that a plane-induced homography could be used for tracking, but this method was not well described. Their homography-based system would not work if targets use only one side of a camera to enter the scene. This paper overcomes this limitation and fully describes a practical homography-based tracker. A new method to find the feet feature is introduced. The method works especially well if the camera is tilted, when using the bottom centre of the target's bounding-box would produce inaccurate results. The new method is more accurate than the bounding-box method even when the camera is not tilted. Next, a method is presented that uses a series of corresponding point pairs "dropped" by oblivious, live human targets to find a plane-induced homography. The point pairs are created by tracking the feet locations of moving targets that were associated using the field of view line method. Finally, a homography-based multiple-camera tracking algorithm is introduced. Rules governing when to create the homography are specified. The algorithm ensures that homography-based tracking only starts after a non-degenerate homography is found. The method works when not all four field of view lines are discoverable; only one line needs to be found to use the algorithm. To initialize the system, the operator must specify pairs of overlapping cameras. Aside from that, the algorithm is fully automatic and uses the natural movement of

  19. Stressful life-events in childhood and risk of multiple sclerosis: a Danish nationwide cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Nete Munk; Pedersen, Bo V; Stenager, Egon; Koch-Henriksen, Nils; Frisch, Morten

    2014-10-01

    Current knowledge concerning the association between exposure to stressful life-events (SFLEs) in childhood and later risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) is sparse. We studied the associations between SFLEs in childhood and subsequent risk of MS in a nationwide cohort of 2.9 million Danes born from 1968 to 2011. A SFLE in childhood was defined as exposure before age 18 years to parental divorce, parental death, or death of a sibling, using information from the Danish Civil Registration System. MS cases in the cohort were identified in the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry. Associations of SFLE with MS risk were evaluated by incidence rate ratios (RR) of MS obtained in log-linear Poisson regression models. Persons exposed to any SFLE in childhood were at 11% elevated risk of MS (RR = 1.11; 95% confidence interval: 1.03-1.20), compared to non-exposed persons. Stratification by subtype of SFLE showed that parental death and death of a sibling were not associated with MS risk. However, persons exposed to parental divorce were at 13% increased risk of developing MS compared to non-exposed (RR = 1.13; 1.04-1.23). Associations of SFLEs in childhood with risk of MS are weak. However, parental divorce is somehow associated with modestly increased risk of MS. © The Author(s), 2014.

  20. Real-Time Optimal Flood Control Decision Making and Risk Propagation Under Multiple Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Feilin; Zhong, Ping-An; Sun, Yimeng; Yeh, William W.-G.

    2017-12-01

    Multiple uncertainties exist in the optimal flood control decision-making process, presenting risks involving flood control decisions. This paper defines the main steps in optimal flood control decision making that constitute the Forecast-Optimization-Decision Making (FODM) chain. We propose a framework for supporting optimal flood control decision making under multiple uncertainties and evaluate risk propagation along the FODM chain from a holistic perspective. To deal with uncertainties, we employ stochastic models at each link of the FODM chain. We generate synthetic ensemble flood forecasts via the martingale model of forecast evolution. We then establish a multiobjective stochastic programming with recourse model for optimal flood control operation. The Pareto front under uncertainty is derived via the constraint method coupled with a two-step process. We propose a novel SMAA-TOPSIS model for stochastic multicriteria decision making. Then we propose the risk assessment model, the risk of decision-making errors and rank uncertainty degree to quantify the risk propagation process along the FODM chain. We conduct numerical experiments to investigate the effects of flood forecast uncertainty on optimal flood control decision making and risk propagation. We apply the proposed methodology to a flood control system in the Daduhe River basin in China. The results indicate that the proposed method can provide valuable risk information in each link of the FODM chain and enable risk-informed decisions with higher reliability.

  1. Robust facial landmark detection based on initializing multiple poses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Chai

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available For robot systems, robust facial landmark detection is the first and critical step for face-based human identification and facial expression recognition. In recent years, the cascaded-regression-based method has achieved excellent performance in facial landmark detection. Nevertheless, it still has certain weakness, such as high sensitivity to the initialization. To address this problem, regression based on multiple initializations is established in a unified model; face shapes are then estimated independently according to these initializations. With a ranking strategy, the best estimate is selected as the final output. Moreover, a face shape model based on restricted Boltzmann machines is built as a constraint to improve the robustness of ranking. Experiments on three challenging datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed facial landmark detection method against state-of-the-art methods.

  2. Video based object representation and classification using multiple covariance matrices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yurong; Liu, Quan

    2017-01-01

    Video based object recognition and classification has been widely studied in computer vision and image processing area. One main issue of this task is to develop an effective representation for video. This problem can generally be formulated as image set representation. In this paper, we present a new method called Multiple Covariance Discriminative Learning (MCDL) for image set representation and classification problem. The core idea of MCDL is to represent an image set using multiple covariance matrices with each covariance matrix representing one cluster of images. Firstly, we use the Nonnegative Matrix Factorization (NMF) method to do image clustering within each image set, and then adopt Covariance Discriminative Learning on each cluster (subset) of images. At last, we adopt KLDA and nearest neighborhood classification method for image set classification. Promising experimental results on several datasets show the effectiveness of our MCDL method.

  3. Lowering risk score profile during PCI in multiple vessel disease is associated with low adverse events: The ERACI risk score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Alfredo E; Fernandez-Pereira, Carlos; Mieres, Juan; Pavlovsky, Hernan; Del Pozo, Juan; Rodriguez-Granillo, Alfredo M; Antoniucci, David

    2018-02-13

    In recent years angiographic risk scores have been introduced in clinical practice to stratify different levels of risk after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI). The SYNTAX score included all intermediate lesions in vessels ≥1.5 mm, consequently, multiple stent implantation was required. Four years ago, we built a new angiographic score in order to guide PCI strategy avoiding stent deployment both in intermediate stenosis as in small vessels, therefore these were not scored (ERACI risk score). The purpose of this mini review is to validate the strategy of PCI guided by this scoring, taking into account long term follow up outcomes of two observational and prospective registries where this policy was used. With this new risk score we have modified risk profile of our patient's candidates for PCI or coronary artery bypass surgery lowering the risk and PCI. The simple exclusion of small vessels and intermediate stenosis from the revascularization approach resulted in clinical outcome comparable with the one of fractional flow reserve guided revascularization. Low events rate at late follow up observed in both studies was also in agreement with guided PCI by functional lesion assessment observed by Syntax II registry, where investigators found lower events rate in spite of a few number of stents implanted per patient. use of ERACI risk scores may significantly reclassify patients into a lower risk category and be associated with low adverse events rate. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  4. Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

    2013-01-01

    Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

  5. Risk analysis for roadways subjected to multiple landslide-related hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corominas, Jordi; Mavrouli, Olga

    2014-05-01

    Roadways through mountainous terrain often involve cuts and landslide areas whose stability is precarious and require protection and stabilization works. To optimize the allocation of resources, government and technical offices are increasingly interested in both the risk analysis and assessment. Risk analysis has to consider the hazard occurrence and the consequences. The consequences can be both direct and indirect. The former include the costs regarding the repair of the roadway, the damage of vehicles and the potential fatalities, while the latter refer to the costs related to the diversion of vehicles, the excess of distance travelled, the time differences, and tolls. The type of slope instabilities that may affect a roadway may vary and its effects as well. Most current approaches either consider a single hazardous phenomenon each time, or if applied at small (for example national) scale, they do not take into account local conditions at each section of the roadway. The objective of this work is the development of a simple and comprehensive methodology for the assessment of the risk due to multiple hazards along roadways, integrating different landslide types that include rockfalls, debris flows and considering as well the potential failure of retaining walls. To quantify risk, all hazards are expressed with a common term: their probability of occurrence. The methodology takes into consideration the specific local conditions along the roadway. For rockfalls and debris flow a variety of methods for assessing the probability of occurrence exists. To assess the annual probability of failure of retaining walls we use an indicator-based model that provides a hazard index. The model parameters consist in the design safety factor, and further anchorage design and construction parameters. The probability of failure is evaluated in function of the hazard index and next corrected (in terms of order of magnitude) according to in situ observations for increase of two

  6. Risk factors of suicide mortality among multiple attempters: A national registry study in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, I-Ming; Liao, Shih-Cheng; Lee, Ming-Been; Wu, Chia-Yi; Lin, Po-Hsien; Chen, Wei J

    2016-05-01

    Little is known about the risk factors of suicide mortality among multiple attempters. This study aims to investigate the predictors of suicidal mortality in a prospective cohort of attempters in Taiwan, focusing on the time interval and suicide method change between the last two nonfatal attempts. The representative data retrieved from the National Suicide Surveillance System (NSSS) was linked with National Mortality Database to identify the causes of death in multiple attempters during 2006-2008. Cox-proportional hazard models were applied to calculate the hazard ratios for the predictors of suicide. Among the 55,560 attempters, 6485 (11.7%) had survived attempts ranging from one to 11 times; 861 (1.5%) eventually died by suicide. Multiple attempters were characterized by female (OR = 1.56, p suicidal death were identified as male, older age (≥ 45 years), shorter interval and not maintaining methods of low lethality in the last two nonfatal attempts. Receipt of nationwide aftercare was associated with lower risk of suicide but the effect was insignificant. The time interval of the last two nonfatal attempts and alteration in the lethality of suicide method were significant factors for completed suicide. Risk assessment involving these two factors may be necessary for multiple attempters in different clinical settings. Effective strategies for suicide prevention emphasizing this high risk population should be developed in the future. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  7. Female Gender and Reproductive Factors Affecting Risk, Relapses and Progression in Multiple Sclerosis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D'hooghe, M. B.; D'Hooghe, T.; De Keyser, J.

    2013-01-01

    Multiple sclerosis (MS), a chronic inflammatory demyelinating and degenerative disease of the central nervous system, is a frequent cause of neurological disability in young adults. Female predominance has increased over the last decades. Although female gender carries a higher risk of developing

  8. Major stressful life events in adulthood and risk of multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Nete Munk; Bager, Peter; Simonsen, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    It is unclear whether psychological stress is associated with increased risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). We studied the association between major stressful life events and MS in a nationwide cohort study using death of a child or a spouse or marital dissolution as indicators of severe stress....

  9. Risk Aversion and Effort in an Incentive Pay Scheme with Multiplicative Noise: Theory and Experimental Evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    N.V. Zubanov (Nick)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThe application of the classical "linear" model of incentive pay to the case when the noise is multiplicative to effort generates two predictions for a given strength of incentives: 1) more risk-averse workers will put in less effort, and 2) setting a performance target will weaken the

  10. Multiple-input multiple-output visible light communication system based on disorder dispersion components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Tao; Zhang, Qi; Hao, Yue; Zhou, Xin-hui; Yi, Ming-dong; Wei, Wei; Huang, Wei; Li, Xing-ao

    2017-10-01

    A multiple-input multiple-output visible light communication (VLC) system based on disorder dispersion components is presented. Instead of monochromatic sources and large size photodetectors used in the traditional VLC systems, broadband sources with different spectra act as the transmitters and a compact imaging chip sensor accompanied by a disorder dispersion component and a calculating component serve as the receivers in the proposed system. This system has the merits of small size, more channels, simple structure, easy integration, and low cost. Simultaneously, the broadband sources are suitable to act as illumination sources for their white color. A regularized procedure is designed to solve a matrix equation for decoding the signals at the receivers. A proof-of-concept experiment using on-off keying modulation has been done to prove the feasibility of the design. The experimental results show that the signals decoded by the receivers fit well with those generated from the transmitters, but the bit error ratio is increased with the number of the signal channels. The experimental results can be further improved using a high-speed charge-coupled device, decreasing noises, and increasing the distance between the transmitters and the receivers.

  11. Risks and benefits of multiple sexual partnerships: beliefs of rural Nigerian adolescent males.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izugbara, Chimaraoke Otutubikey; Nwabuawele Modo, Felicia

    2007-09-01

    Drawing on interview data from rural Nigeria, the article explores male youth perceptions of the risks and benefits of multiple sexual partnerships. Participants associated having multiple sexual partners with several harmful health and nonhealth outcomes, including sexually transmitted infections, and frequently confirmed that the practice also bolsters their sense of maleness and boosts their acceptance and ranking among peers. Young males' involvement in multiple sexual partnerships should not be seen as always consequent on their ignorance of and/or indifference to the risks inherent in the behavior. It could also result from the integrality of the behavior to the social processes through which male youths validate their masculinity, mark their transition from boyhood to malehood, and configure their identities to gain acceptance into a local male peer community. Sexuality education curricula that ignore adolescents' understandings of the benefits of their sexual practices may not deliver expected objectives.

  12. Risk Classification and Risk-based Safety and Mission Assurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitner, Jesse A.

    2014-01-01

    Recent activities to revamp and emphasize the need to streamline processes and activities for Class D missions across the agency have led to various interpretations of Class D, including the lumping of a variety of low-cost projects into Class D. Sometimes terms such as Class D minus are used. In this presentation, mission risk classifications will be traced to official requirements and definitions as a measure to ensure that projects and programs align with the guidance and requirements that are commensurate for their defined risk posture. As part of this, the full suite of risk classifications, formal and informal will be defined, followed by an introduction to the new GPR 8705.4 that is currently under review.GPR 8705.4 lays out guidance for the mission success activities performed at the Classes A-D for NPR 7120.5 projects as well as for projects not under NPR 7120.5. Furthermore, the trends in stepping from Class A into higher risk posture classifications will be discussed. The talk will conclude with a discussion about risk-based safety and mission assuranceat GSFC.

  13. Risk-based and deterministic regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, L.E.; Brown, N.W.

    1995-07-01

    Both risk-based and deterministic methods are used for regulating the nuclear industry to protect the public safety and health from undue risk. The deterministic method is one where performance standards are specified for each kind of nuclear system or facility. The deterministic performance standards address normal operations and design basis events which include transient and accident conditions. The risk-based method uses probabilistic risk assessment methods to supplement the deterministic one by (1) addressing all possible events (including those beyond the design basis events), (2) using a systematic, logical process for identifying and evaluating accidents, and (3) considering alternative means to reduce accident frequency and/or consequences. Although both deterministic and risk-based methods have been successfully applied, there is need for a better understanding of their applications and supportive roles. This paper describes the relationship between the two methods and how they are used to develop and assess regulations in the nuclear industry. Preliminary guidance is suggested for determining the need for using risk based methods to supplement deterministic ones. However, it is recommended that more detailed guidance and criteria be developed for this purpose

  14. Risk-based remediation: Approach and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frishmuth, R.A.; Benson, L.A.

    1995-01-01

    The principle objective of remedial actions is to protect human health and the environment. Risk assessments are the only defensible tools available to demonstrate to the regulatory community and public that this objective can be achieved. Understanding the actual risks posed by site-related contamination is crucial to designing cost-effective remedial strategies. All to often remedial actions are overdesigned, resulting in little to no increase in risk reduction while increasing project cost. Risk-based remedial actions have recently been embraced by federal and state regulators, industry, government, the scientific community, and the public as a mechanism to implement rapid and cost-effective remedial actions. Emphasizing risk reduction, rather than adherence to ambiguous and generic standards, ensures that only remedial actions required to protect human health and the environment at a particular site are implemented. Two sites are presented as case studies on how risk-based approaches are being used to remediate two petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated sites. The sites are located at two US Air Force Bases, Wurtsmith Air Force Base (AFB) in Oscoda, Michigan and Malmstrom AFB in Great Falls, Montana

  15. Comparison of additive (absolute) risk projection models and multiplicative (relative) risk projection models in estimating radiation-induced lifetime cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki; Kusama, Tomoko

    1990-01-01

    Lifetime cancer risk estimates depend on risk projection models. While the increasing lengths of follow-up observation periods of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki bring about changes in cancer risk estimates, the validity of the two risk projection models, the additive risk projection model (AR) and multiplicative risk projection model (MR), comes into question. This paper compares the lifetime risk or loss of life-expectancy between the two projection models on the basis of BEIR-III report or recently published RERF report. With Japanese cancer statistics the estimates of MR were greater than those of AR, but a reversal of these results was seen when the cancer hazard function for India was used. When we investigated the validity of the two projection models using epidemiological human data and animal data, the results suggested that MR was superior to AR with respect to temporal change, but there was little evidence to support its validity. (author)

  16. Computed tomography imaging of early coronary artery lesions in stable individuals with multiple cardiovascular risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xi Yang

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To investigate the prevalence, extent, severity, and features of coronary artery lesions in stable patients with multiple cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS: Seventy-seven patients with more than 3 cardiovascular risk factors were suspected of having coronary artery disease. Patients with high-risk factors and 39 controls with no risk factors were enrolled in the study. The related risk factors included hypertension, impaired glucose tolerance, dyslipidemia, smoking history, and overweight. The characteristics of coronary lesions were identified and evaluated by 64-slice coronary computed tomography angiography. RESULTS: The incidence of coronary atherosclerosis was higher in the high-risk group than in the no-risk group. The involved branches of the coronary artery, the diffusivity of the lesion, the degree of stenosis, and the nature of the plaques were significantly more severe in the high-risk group compared with the no-risk group (all p < 0.05. CONCLUSION: Among stable individuals with high-risk factors, early coronary artery lesions are common and severe. Computed tomography has promising value for the early screening of coronary lesions.

  17. An Updated Meta-Analysis of Risk of Multiple Sclerosis following Infectious Mononucleosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handel, Adam E.; Williamson, Alexander J.; Disanto, Giulio; Handunnetthi, Lahiru; Giovannoni, Gavin; Ramagopalan, Sreeram V.

    2010-01-01

    Background Multiple sclerosis (MS) appears to develop in genetically susceptible individuals as a result of environmental exposures. Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection is an almost universal finding among individuals with MS. Symptomatic EBV infection as manifested by infectious mononucleosis (IM) has been shown in a previous meta-analysis to be associated with the risk of MS, however a number of much larger studies have since been published. Methods/Principal Findings We performed a Medline search to identify articles published since the original meta-analysis investigating MS risk following IM. A total of 18 articles were included in this study, including 19390 MS patients and 16007 controls. We calculated the relative risk of MS following IM using a generic inverse variance with random effects model. This showed that the risk of MS was strongly associated with IM (relative risk (RR) 2.17; 95% confidence interval 1.97–2.39; pmononucleosis significantly increases the risk of multiple sclerosis. Future work should focus on the mechanism of this association and interaction with other risk factors. PMID:20824132

  18. An updated meta-analysis of risk of multiple sclerosis following infectious mononucleosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam E Handel

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Multiple sclerosis (MS appears to develop in genetically susceptible individuals as a result of environmental exposures. Epstein-Barr virus (EBV infection is an almost universal finding among individuals with MS. Symptomatic EBV infection as manifested by infectious mononucleosis (IM has been shown in a previous meta-analysis to be associated with the risk of MS, however a number of much larger studies have since been published.We performed a Medline search to identify articles published since the original meta-analysis investigating MS risk following IM. A total of 18 articles were included in this study, including 19390 MS patients and 16007 controls. We calculated the relative risk of MS following IM using a generic inverse variance with random effects model. This showed that the risk of MS was strongly associated with IM (relative risk (RR 2.17; 95% confidence interval 1.97-2.39; p<10(-54.Our results establish firmly that a history of infectious mononucleosis significantly increases the risk of multiple sclerosis. Future work should focus on the mechanism of this association and interaction with other risk factors.

  19. A quantitative approach for integrating multiple lines of evidence for the evaluation of environmental health risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerome J. Schleier III

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision analysis often considers multiple lines of evidence during the decision making process. Researchers and government agencies have advocated for quantitative weight-of-evidence approaches in which multiple lines of evidence can be considered when estimating risk. Therefore, we utilized Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo to integrate several human-health risk assessment, biomonitoring, and epidemiology studies that have been conducted for two common insecticides (malathion and permethrin used for adult mosquito management to generate an overall estimate of risk quotient (RQ. The utility of the Bayesian inference for risk management is that the estimated risk represents a probability distribution from which the probability of exceeding a threshold can be estimated. The mean RQs after all studies were incorporated were 0.4386, with a variance of 0.0163 for malathion and 0.3281 with a variance of 0.0083 for permethrin. After taking into account all of the evidence available on the risks of ULV insecticides, the probability that malathion or permethrin would exceed a level of concern was less than 0.0001. Bayesian estimates can substantially improve decisions by allowing decision makers to estimate the probability that a risk will exceed a level of concern by considering seemingly disparate lines of evidence.

  20. Evidence-based evaluation of treatment strategy for multiple sclerosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LI Meng-qiu

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective To formulate the best treatment plan for multiple sclerosis (MS patients by evaluating the therapeutic efficacy and side effect of various evidence-based programs. Methods Key words were defined as multiple sclerosis, immunomodulatory therapy and therapy, etc. We searched MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, Wanfang data bases for Scientific Journals in China and National Knowledge Infrastructure for Chinese Scientific Journals Database. Additionally, we applied manual searching and screened out conference paper and academic dissertation, etc, from various references. After that we obtained and evaluated by Jadad scales on systematic reviews, randomized controlled trials, controlled clinical trials and observational study cases about glucocorticoids, plasmapheresis, intravenous immunoglobulin, IFN-β, glatiramer acetate, mitoxantrone, natalizumab, fingolimod. Results After screening, all seventeen selected resources included systematic reviews 6 articles, randomized controlled trials 7 articles, controlled clinical trials 2 articles, observational study cases 2 articles, among which fifteen articles were proved to be high quality (according to Jadad scoring system, five score 4, six score 5, four score 7, two chapters were judged to be low quality scoring 3. Finally, we summerize that: 1 The first choice of treatment for acute relapses is glucocorticoids and we suggest that plasmapheresis or intravenous immunoglobulin may be tried as an alternative therapy in acute MS relapse, especially in case of contraindications to intravenous methylprednisolone. 2 Immunomodulatory or immunosuppressive treatment (IFN-β, glatiramer acetate, mitoxantrone, natalizumab can be an option to prevent new relapses and progression of disability. 3 Fingolimod is an oral treatment for multiple sclerosis to improve treatment adherence. Conclusion Using evidence-based medicine methods can provide us best clinical evidence on MS treatment.

  1. Multiple brain atlas database and atlas-based neuroimaging system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowinski, W L; Fang, A; Nguyen, B T; Raphel, J K; Jagannathan, L; Raghavan, R; Bryan, R N; Miller, G A

    1997-01-01

    For the purpose of developing multiple, complementary, fully labeled electronic brain atlases and an atlas-based neuroimaging system for analysis, quantification, and real-time manipulation of cerebral structures in two and three dimensions, we have digitized, enhanced, segmented, and labeled the following print brain atlases: Co-Planar Stereotaxic Atlas of the Human Brain by Talairach and Tournoux, Atlas for Stereotaxy of the Human Brain by Schaltenbrand and Wahren, Referentially Oriented Cerebral MRI Anatomy by Talairach and Tournoux, and Atlas of the Cerebral Sulci by Ono, Kubik, and Abernathey. Three-dimensional extensions of these atlases have been developed as well. All two- and three-dimensional atlases are mutually preregistered and may be interactively registered with an actual patient's data. An atlas-based neuroimaging system has been developed that provides support for reformatting, registration, visualization, navigation, image processing, and quantification of clinical data. The anatomical index contains about 1,000 structures and over 400 sulcal patterns. Several new applications of the brain atlas database also have been developed, supported by various technologies such as virtual reality, the Internet, and electronic publishing. Fusion of information from multiple atlases assists the user in comprehensively understanding brain structures and identifying and quantifying anatomical regions in clinical data. The multiple brain atlas database and atlas-based neuroimaging system have substantial potential impact in stereotactic neurosurgery and radiotherapy by assisting in visualization and real-time manipulation in three dimensions of anatomical structures, in quantitative neuroradiology by allowing interactive analysis of clinical data, in three-dimensional neuroeducation, and in brain function studies.

  2. War-related trauma exposure and multiple risk behaviors among school-going adolescents in Northern Uganda: the mediating role of depression symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okello, James; Nakimuli-Mpungu, Etheldreda; Musisi, Seggane; Broekaert, Eric; Derluyn, Ilse

    2013-11-01

    The relationship between war-related trauma exposure, depressive symptoms and multiple risk behaviors among adolescents is less clear in sub-Saharan Africa. We analyzed data collected from a sample of school-going adolescents four years postwar. Participants completed interviews assessing various risk behaviors defined by the Youth Self Report (YSR) and a sexual risk behavior survey, and were screened for post-traumatic stress, anxiety and depression symptoms based on the Impact of Events Scale Revised (IESR) and Hopkins Symptom Checklist for Adolescents (HSCL-37A) respectively. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess factors independently associated with multiple risk behaviors. The logistic regression model of Baron and Kenny (1986) was used to evaluate the mediating role of depression in the relationship between stressful war events and multiple risk behaviors. Of 551 participants, 139 (25%) reported multiple (three or more) risk behaviors in the past year. In the multivariate analyses, depression symptoms remained uniquely associated with multiple risk behavior after adjusting for potential confounders including socio-demographic characteristics, war-related trauma exposure variables, anxiety and post-traumatic stress symptoms. In mediation analysis, depression symptoms mediated the associations between stressful war events and multiple risk behaviors. The psychometric properties of the questionnaires used in this study are not well established in war affected African samples thus ethno cultural variation may decrease the validity of our measures. Adolescents with depression may be at a greater risk of increased engagement in multiple risk behaviors. Culturally sensitive and integrated interventions to treat and prevent depression among adolescents in post-conflict settings are urgently needed. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Visualization-based analysis of multiple response survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timofeeva, Anastasiia

    2017-11-01

    During the survey, the respondents are often allowed to tick more than one answer option for a question. Analysis and visualization of such data have difficulties because of the need for processing multiple response variables. With standard representation such as pie and bar charts, information about the association between different answer options is lost. The author proposes a visualization approach for multiple response variables based on Venn diagrams. For a more informative representation with a large number of overlapping groups it is suggested to use similarity and association matrices. Some aggregate indicators of dissimilarity (similarity) are proposed based on the determinant of the similarity matrix and the maximum eigenvalue of association matrix. The application of the proposed approaches is well illustrated by the example of the analysis of advertising sources. Intersection of sets indicates that the same consumer audience is covered by several advertising sources. This information is very important for the allocation of the advertising budget. The differences between target groups in advertising sources are of interest. To identify such differences the hypothesis of homogeneity and independence are tested. Recent approach to the problem are briefly reviewed and compared. An alternative procedure is suggested. It is based on partition of a consumer audience into pairwise disjoint subsets and includes hypothesis testing of the difference between the population proportions. It turned out to be more suitable for the real problem being solved.

  4. Multiple Lookup Table-Based AES Encryption Algorithm Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Jin; Liu, Wenyi; Zhang, Huixin

    Anew AES (Advanced Encryption Standard) encryption algorithm implementation was proposed in this paper. It is based on five lookup tables, which are generated from S-box(the substitution table in AES). The obvious advantages are reducing the code-size, improving the implementation efficiency, and helping new learners to understand the AES encryption algorithm and GF(28) multiplication which are necessary to correctly implement AES[1]. This method can be applied on processors with word length 32 or above, FPGA and others. And correspondingly we can implement it by VHDL, Verilog, VB and other languages.

  5. Photodiode Based Detection for Multiple Trap Optical Tweezers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ott, Dino

    This thesis is concerned with the position tracking of microscopic, optically trapped particles and the quantification of the forces acting on them. A new detection method for simultaneous, three-dimensional tracking of multiple particles is presented, its performance is evaluated, and its...... usefulness is illustrated in specific application examples. Optical traps enable contact-less, all-optical manipulation of microscopic objects. Over the last decades, this laser-based micro-manipulation tool has facilitated numerous exciting discoveries within biology and physics, and it is today regarded...

  6. Interactive Visualization of DGA Data Based on Multiple Views

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geng, Yujie; Lin, Ying; Ma, Yan; Guo, Zhihong; Gu, Chao; Wang, Mingtao

    2017-01-01

    The commission and operation of dissolved gas analysis (DGA) online monitoring makes up for the weakness of traditional DGA method. However, volume and high-dimensional DGA data brings a huge challenge for monitoring and analysis. In this paper, we present a novel interactive visualization model of DGA data based on multiple views. This model imitates multi-angle analysis by combining parallel coordinates, scatter plot matrix and data table. By offering brush, collaborative filter and focus + context technology, this model provides a convenient and flexible interactive way to analyze and understand the DGA data.

  7. Multiple attribute decision making model and application to food safety risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Lihua; Chen, Hong; Yan, Huizhe; Yang, Lifeng; Wu, Lifeng

    2017-01-01

    Decision making for supermarket food purchase decisions are characterized by network relationships. This paper analyzed factors that influence supermarket food selection and proposes a supplier evaluation index system based on the whole process of food production. The author established the intuitive interval value fuzzy set evaluation model based on characteristics of the network relationship among decision makers, and validated for a multiple attribute decision making case study. Thus, the proposed model provides a reliable, accurate method for multiple attribute decision making.

  8. THE ANALYSIS OF THE RELATION COUNTRY RISK – MULTIPLE VALUE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Nicolescu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Financial theory state that high expected growth, low risk in the company’s sector and low interest rates will push multiples higher. In this respect the goal of the empirical work is to examine country risk-multiple value relation, for the companies from emerging and frontier markets such as Central and East European ones. Specific control variables have been included in the model as proxy for growth opportunities, profitability, capital structure, and asset utilization. Using panel data analysis for period 2010-2015 as well as other financial variables for a sample of Central and East European countries during 2010-2015. The results partially support financial theories, mainly the significance of country risk and debt ratio and reject the growth opportunities hypothesis.

  9. Managing a complex project using a risk-risk multiple domain matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pointurier, C.; Marle, F.; Jaber, H.

    2014-01-01

    This communication aims at presenting a clustering methodology applied to a complex project consisting of the delivery of three interdependent subsystems. This enables small and complementary task forces to be constituted, enhancing the communication and coordination on transverse issues related to the complexity of the whole system. The problem is to gather and exploit data for such systems, with numerous and heterogeneous risks of different domains (product, process, organization). The method consists in regrouping actors through the clustering of the risks they own. The result is a highlight on important and transverse risk interdependencies, within and between projects. These should not be neglected in order to avoid potential severe issues, whether during the project or during the exploitation of its deliverable. An application on a real program of plant implementation in the CEA-DAM is presented, with a sensitivity analysis of the clustering results to the inputs and chosen configurations of the problem. (authors)

  10. Feedback structure based entropy approach for multiple-model estimation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shen-tu Han; Xue Anke; Guo Yunfei

    2013-01-01

    The variable-structure multiple-model (VSMM) approach, one of the multiple-model (MM) methods, is a popular and effective approach in handling problems with mode uncertainties. The model sequence set adaptation (MSA) is the key to design a better VSMM. However, MSA methods in the literature have big room to improve both theoretically and practically. To this end, we propose a feedback structure based entropy approach that could find the model sequence sets with the smallest size under certain conditions. The filtered data are fed back in real time and can be used by the minimum entropy (ME) based VSMM algorithms, i.e., MEVSMM. Firstly, the full Markov chains are used to achieve optimal solutions. Secondly, the myopic method together with particle filter (PF) and the challenge match algorithm are also used to achieve sub-optimal solutions, a trade-off between practicability and optimality. The numerical results show that the proposed algorithm provides not only refined model sets but also a good robustness margin and very high accuracy.

  11. A color based face detection system using multiple templates

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王涛; 卜佳俊; 陈纯

    2003-01-01

    A color based system using multiple templates was developed and implemented for detecting human faces in color images. The algorithm consists of three image processing steps. The first step is human skin color statistics. Then it separates skin regions from non-skin regions. After that, it locates the frontal human face(s) within the skin regions. In the first step, 250 skin samples from persons of different ethnicities are used to determine the color distribution of human skin in chromatic color space in order to get a chroma chart showing likelihoods of skin colors. This chroma chart is used to generate, from the original color image, a gray scale image whose gray value at a pixel shows its likelihood of representing the skin. The algorithm uses an adaptive thresholding process to achieve the optimal threshold value for dividing the gray scale image into separate skin regions from non skin regions. Finally, multiple face templates matching is used to determine if a given skin region represents a frontal human face or not. Test of the system with more than 400 color images showed that the resulting detection rate was 83%, which is better than most color-based face detection systems. The average speed for face detection is 0.8 second/image (400×300 pixels) on a Pentium 3 (800MHz) PC.

  12. A color based face detection system using multiple templates

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王涛; 卜佳酸; 陈纯

    2003-01-01

    A color based system using multiple templates was developed and implemented for detecting hu-man faces in color images.The algorithm comsists of three image processing steps.The first step is human skin color statistics.Then it separates skin regions from non-skin regions.After that,it locates the frontal human face(s) within the skin regions.In the first step,250 skin samples from persons of different ethnicities are used to determine the color distribution of human skin in chromatic color space in order to get a chroma chart showing likelihoods of skin colors.This chroma chart is used to generate,from the original color image,a gray scale image whose gray value at a pixel shows its likelihood of representing the shin,The algorithm uses an adaptive thresholding process to achieve the optimal threshold value for dividing the gray scale image into sep-arate skin regions from non skin regions.Finally,multiple face templates matching is used to determine if a given skin region represents a frontal human face or not.Test of the system with more than 400 color images showed that the resulting detection rate was 83%,which is better than most colou-based face detection sys-tems.The average speed for face detection is 0.8 second/image(400×300pixels) on a Pentium 3(800MHz) PC.

  13. Lossless Image Compression Based on Multiple-Tables Arithmetic Coding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rung-Ching Chen

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is intended to present a lossless image compression method based on multiple-tables arithmetic coding (MTAC method to encode a gray-level image f. First, the MTAC method employs a median edge detector (MED to reduce the entropy rate of f. The gray levels of two adjacent pixels in an image are usually similar. A base-switching transformation approach is then used to reduce the spatial redundancy of the image. The gray levels of some pixels in an image are more common than those of others. Finally, the arithmetic encoding method is applied to reduce the coding redundancy of the image. To promote high performance of the arithmetic encoding method, the MTAC method first classifies the data and then encodes each cluster of data using a distinct code table. The experimental results show that, in most cases, the MTAC method provides a higher efficiency in use of storage space than the lossless JPEG2000 does.

  14. Image Based Solution to Occlusion Problem for Multiple Robots Navigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taj Mohammad Khan

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In machine vision, occlusions problem is always a challenging issue in image based mapping and navigation tasks. This paper presents a multiple view vision based algorithm for the development of occlusion-free map of the indoor environment. The map is assumed to be utilized by the mobile robots within the workspace. It has wide range of applications, including mobile robot path planning and navigation, access control in restricted areas, and surveillance systems. We used wall mounted fixed camera system. After intensity adjustment and background subtraction of the synchronously captured images, the image registration was performed. We applied our algorithm on the registered images to resolve the occlusion problem. This technique works well even in the existence of total occlusion for a longer period.

  15. Occupation, exposure to chemicals, sensitizing agents, and risk of multiple myeloma in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lope, Virginia; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz; Aragonés, Nuria; López-Abente, Gonzalo; Gustavsson, Per; Plato, Nils; Zock, Jan-Paul; Pollán, Marina

    2008-11-01

    This study sought to identify occupations with high incidence of multiple myeloma and to investigate possible excess risk associated with occupational exposure to chemicals and sensitizing agents in Sweden. A historical cohort of 2,992,166 workers was followed up (1971--1989) through record linkage with the National Cancer and Death Registries. For each job category, age and period standardized incidence ratios and age and period adjusted relative risks of multiple myeloma were calculated using Poisson models. Exposure to chemicals and to sensitizing agents was also assessed using two job-exposure matrices. Men and women were analyzed separately. During follow-up, 3,127 and 1,282 myelomas were diagnosed in men and women, respectively. In men, excess risk was detected among working proprietors, agricultural, horticultural and forestry enterprisers, bakers and pastry cooks, dental technicians, stone cutters/carvers, and prison/reformatory officials. In women, this excess was observed among attendants in psychiatric care, metal workers, bakers and pastry cooks, and paper/paperboard product workers. Workers, particularly bakers and pastry cooks, exposed to high molecular weight sensitizing agents registered an excess risk of over 40% across the sexes. Occasional, although intense, exposure to pesticides was also associated with risk of myeloma in our cohort. Our study supports a possible etiologic role for farming and use of pesticides in myeloma risk. The high incidence found in both female and male bakers and pastry cooks has not been described previously. Further research is required to assess the influence of high molecular weight sensitizing agents on risk of multiple myeloma.

  16. Fine Mapping and Functional Analysis of the Multiple Sclerosis Risk Gene CD6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swaminathan, Bhairavi; Cuapio, Angélica; Alloza, Iraide; Matesanz, Fuencisla; Alcina, Antonio; García-Barcina, Maria; Fedetz, Maria; Fernández, Óscar; Lucas, Miguel; Órpez, Teresa; Pinto-Medel, Mª Jesus; Otaegui, David; Olascoaga, Javier; Urcelay, Elena; Ortiz, Miguel A.; Arroyo, Rafael; Oksenberg, Jorge R.; Antigüedad, Alfredo; Tolosa, Eva; Vandenbroeck, Koen

    2013-01-01

    CD6 has recently been identified and validated as risk gene for multiple sclerosis (MS), based on the association of a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs17824933, located in intron 1. CD6 is a cell surface scavenger receptor involved in T-cell activation and proliferation, as well as in thymocyte differentiation. In this study, we performed a haptag SNP screen of the CD6 gene locus using a total of thirteen tagging SNPs, of which three were non-synonymous SNPs, and replicated the recently reported GWAS SNP rs650258 in a Spanish-Basque collection of 814 controls and 823 cases. Validation of the six most strongly associated SNPs was performed in an independent collection of 2265 MS patients and 2600 healthy controls. We identified association of haplotypes composed of two non-synonymous SNPs [rs11230563 (R225W) and rs2074225 (A257V)] in the 2nd SRCR domain with susceptibility to MS (P max(T) permutation = 1×10−4). The effect of these haplotypes on CD6 surface expression and cytokine secretion was also tested. The analysis showed significantly different CD6 expression patterns in the distinct cell subsets, i.e. – CD4+ naïve cells, P = 0.0001; CD8+ naïve cells, P<0.0001; CD4+ and CD8+ central memory cells, P = 0.01 and 0.05, respectively; and natural killer T (NKT) cells, P = 0.02; with the protective haplotype (RA) showing higher expression of CD6. However, no significant changes were observed in natural killer (NK) cells, effector memory and terminally differentiated effector memory T cells. Our findings reveal that this new MS-associated CD6 risk haplotype significantly modifies expression of CD6 on CD4+ and CD8+ T cells. PMID:23638056

  17. Environmental risk factors in the aetiology of multiple sclerosis in Kayseri: a case control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Servin Yeşil Günal

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: our purpose is to evaluate the possible relationship between multiple sclerosis (MS and environmental factors in Kayseri.Methods: this case control study was conducted on 100 patients with MS and 100 sex-aged and residential area matched control. Data was collected by using face to face interviews. Questionnaire consisted of two parts. The first part was comprised of items related with the participants’ sociodemographic features. The second part was related with factors thought to be involved in the occurrence or aggravation of the disease. The Chi-square test and logistic regression were used for analysis.Results: logistic regression analysis revealed the following as possible risk factors in MS cases: economic status (Odds Ratio (OR: 0.14 adjusted 7.19; Confidence Interval 95% (CI: 0.05-0.43, having a sensitive personality (OR:4.51; 95% CI: 1.10-18.45, familial history of MS (OR:3.28; 95% CI: 1.3-8.27, history of cranial and spinal injury (OR: 2.99; 95% CI: 1.11-8.08, cooking oil consumption (OR:0.07 adjusted 13.5; 95% CI: 0.03-0.20, consumption of legumes and grains (OR: 0.11 adjusted 8.9; 95% CI: 0.03-0.41, and living in dwellings within a distance of 500 meters from transformer basestations (OR: 6.5; 95% CI: 1.54-28.21.Conclusions: we believe that it is necessary to inform the individuals about the risk of MS and their relatives of the results of large-scale joint studies and to offer suggestions based on the data obtained.

  18. Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions

  19. Depressive symptoms in adolescence: the association with multiple health risk behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katon, Wayne; Richardson, Laura; Russo, Joan; McCarty, Carolyn A; Rockhill, Carol; McCauley, Elizabeth; Richards, Julie; Grossman, David C

    2010-01-01

    Although multiple studies of adolescents have examined the association of depression with individual health risk behaviors such as obesity or smoking, this is one of the few studies that examined the association between depression and multiple risk behaviors. A brief mail questionnaire, which screened for age, gender, weight, height, sedentary behaviors, physical activity, perception of general health, functional impairment and depressive symptoms, was completed by a sample of 2291 youth (60.7% response rate) aged 13-17 enrolled in a health care plan. A subset of youth who screened positive on the two-item depression screen and a random sample of those screening negative were approached to participate in a telephone interview with more in-depth information obtained on smoking and at-risk behaviors associated with drug and alcohol use. Youth screening positive for high levels of depressive symptoms compared to those with few or no depressive symptoms were significantly more likely to meet criteria for obesity, had a poorer perception of health, spent more time on the computer, got along less well with parents and friends, had more problems completing school work and were more likely to have experimented with smoking and a wide array of behaviors associated with drug and alcohol use. Because many adverse health behaviors that develop in adolescence continue into adulthood, the association of depressive symptoms with multiple risk behaviors and poor functioning suggest that early interventions are needed at an individual, school, community and primary care level. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Retinal thickness measured with optical coherence tomography and risk of disability worsening in multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinez-Lapiscina, Elena H; Arnow, Sam; Wilson, James A

    2016-01-01

    of disability worsening in a cohort of patients with multiple sclerosis who had at least one eye without optic neuritis available. METHODS: In this multicentre, cohort study, we collected data about patients (age ≥16 years old) with clinically isolated syndrome, relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis...... with the risk of subsequent disability worsening by use of proportional hazards models that included OCT metrics and age, disease duration, disability, presence of previous unilateral optic neuritis, and use of disease-modifying therapies as covariates. FINDINGS: 879 patients with clinically isolated syndrome...

  1. A risk-based sensor placement methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ronald W.; Kulesz, James J.

    2008-01-01

    A risk-based sensor placement methodology is proposed to solve the problem of optimal location of sensors to protect population against the exposure to, and effects of, known and/or postulated chemical, biological, and/or radiological threats. Risk is calculated as a quantitative value representing population at risk from exposure at standard exposure levels. Historical meteorological data are used to characterize weather conditions as the frequency of wind speed and direction pairs. The meteorological data drive atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling of the threats, the results of which are used to calculate risk values. Sensor locations are determined via an iterative dynamic programming algorithm whereby threats detected by sensors placed in prior iterations are removed from consideration in subsequent iterations. In addition to the risk-based placement algorithm, the proposed methodology provides a quantification of the marginal utility of each additional sensor. This is the fraction of the total risk accounted for by placement of the sensor. Thus, the criteria for halting the iterative process can be the number of sensors available, a threshold marginal utility value, and/or a minimum cumulative utility achieved with all sensors

  2. Multiple risk-behavior profiles of smokers with serious mental illness and motivation for change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prochaska, Judith J; Fromont, Sebastien C; Delucchi, Kevin; Young-Wolff, Kelly C; Benowitz, Neal L; Hall, Stephen; Bonas, Thomas; Hall, Sharon M

    2014-12-01

    Individuals with serious mental illness (SMI) are dying on average 25 years prematurely. The leading causes are chronic preventable diseases. In the context of a tobacco-treatment trial, this exploratory study examined the behavioral risk profiles of adults with SMI to identify broader interventional needs. Recruited from five acute inpatient psychiatry units, participants were 693 adult smokers (recruitment rate = 76%, 50% male, 45% Caucasian, age M = 39, 49% had income change 11 health behaviors, referencing the period prior to acute hospitalization. Participants averaged 5.2 (SD = 2.1) risk behaviors, including smoking (100%), high-fat diet (68%), inadequate fruits/vegetables (67%), poor sleep (53%), physical inactivity (52%), and marijuana use (46%). The percent prepared to change ranged from 23% for tobacco and marijuana to 76% for depression management. Latent class analysis differentiated three risk groups: the global higher risk group included patients elevated on all risk behaviors; the global lower risk group was low on all risks; and a mood and metabolic risk group, characterized by inactivity, unhealthy diet, sleep problems, and poor stress and depression management. The global higher risk group (11% of sample) was younger, largely male, and had the greatest number of risk behaviors and mental health diagnoses; had the most severe psychopathologies, addiction-treatment histories, and nicotine dependence; and the lowest confidence for quitting smoking and commitment to abstinence. Most smokers with SMI engaged in multiple risks. Expanding targets to treat co-occurring risks and personalizing treatment to individuals' multibehavioral profiles may increase intervention relevance, interest, and impact on health.

  3. Carfilzomib significantly improves the progression-free survival of high-risk patients in multiple myeloma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avet-Loiseau, Hervé; Fonseca, Rafael; Siegel, David; Dimopoulos, Meletios A; Špička, Ivan; Masszi, Tamás; Hájek, Roman; Rosiñol, Laura; Goranova-Marinova, Vesselina; Mihaylov, Georgi; Maisnar, Vladimír; Mateos, Maria-Victoria; Wang, Michael; Niesvizky, Ruben; Oriol, Albert; Jakubowiak, Andrzej; Minarik, Jiri; Palumbo, Antonio; Bensinger, William; Kukreti, Vishal; Ben-Yehuda, Dina; Stewart, A Keith; Obreja, Mihaela; Moreau, Philippe

    2016-09-01

    The presence of certain high-risk cytogenetic abnormalities, such as translocations (4;14) and (14;16) and deletion (17p), are known to have a negative impact on survival in multiple myeloma (MM). The phase 3 study ASPIRE (N = 792) demonstrated that progression-free survival (PFS) was significantly improved with carfilzomib, lenalidomide, and dexamethasone (KRd), compared with lenalidomide and dexamethasone (Rd) in relapsed MM. This preplanned subgroup analysis of ASPIRE was conducted to evaluate KRd vs Rd by baseline cytogenetics according to fluorescence in situ hybridization. Of 417 patients with known cytogenetic risk status, 100 patients (24%) were categorized with high-risk cytogenetics (KRd, n = 48; Rd, n = 52) and 317 (76%) were categorized with standard-risk cytogenetics (KRd, n = 147; Rd, n = 170). For patients with high-risk cytogenetics, treatment with KRd resulted in a median PFS of 23.1 months, a 9-month improvement relative to treatment with Rd. For patients with standard-risk cytogenetics, treatment with KRd led to a 10-month improvement in median PFS vs Rd. The overall response rates for KRd vs Rd were 79.2% vs 59.6% (high-risk cytogenetics) and 91.2% vs 73.5% (standard-risk cytogenetics); approximately fivefold as many patients with high- or standard-risk cytogenetics achieved a complete response or better with KRd vs Rd (29.2% vs 5.8% and 38.1% vs 6.5%, respectively). KRd improved but did not abrogate the poor prognosis associated with high-risk cytogenetics. This regimen had a favorable benefit-risk profile in patients with relapsed MM, irrespective of cytogenetic risk status, and should be considered a standard of care in these patients. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT01080391. © 2016 by The American Society of Hematology.

  4. Risk-based regulation: A regulatory perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scarborough, J.C.

    1993-01-01

    In the early development of regulations for nuclear power plants, risk was implicitly considered through qualitative assessments and engineering reliability principles and practices. Examples included worst case analysis, defense in depth, and the single failure criterion. However, the contributions of various systems, structures, components and operator actions to plant safety were not explicitly assessed since a methodology for this purpose had not been developed. As a consequence of the TMI accident, the use of more quantitative risk methodology and information in regulation such as probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) increased. The use of both qualitative and quantitative consideration of risk in regulation has been a set of regulations and regulatory guides and practices that ensure adequate protection of public health and safety. Presently, the development of PRA techniques has developed to the point that safety goals, expressed in terms of risk, have been established to help guide further regulatory decision making. This paper presents the personal opinions of the author as regards the use of risk today in nuclear power plant regulation, areas of further information needs, and necessary plans for moving toward a more systematic use of risk-based information in regulatory initiatives in the future

  5. Genetic variation in the base excision repair pathway, environmental risk factors, and colorectal adenoma risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman Corral

    Full Text Available Cigarette smoking, high alcohol intake, and low dietary folate levels are risk factors for colorectal adenomas. Oxidative damage caused by these three factors can be repaired through the base excision repair pathway (BER. We hypothesized that genetic variation in BER might modify colorectal adenoma risk. In a sigmoidoscopy-based study, we examined associations between 182 haplotype tagging SNPs in 14 BER genes, and colorectal adenoma risk, and examined their potential role as modifiers of the effect cigarette smoking, alcohol intake, and dietary folate levels. Among all individuals, no statistically significant associations between BER SNPs and adenoma risk persisted after correction for multiple comparisons. However, among Asian-Pacific Islanders we observed two SNPs in FEN1 and one in NTHL1, and among African-Americans one SNP in APEX1 that were associated with colorectal adenoma risk. Significant associations were also observed between SNPs in the NEIL2 gene and rectal adenoma risk. Three SNPS modified the effect of smoking (MUTYH interaction p = 0.002; OGG1 interaction p = 0.013; FEN1 interaction p = 0.013, one SNP in LIG3 modified the effect of alcohol consumption (interaction p = 0.024 and two SNPs in LIG3 modified the effect of dietary folate (interaction p = 0.001 and p = 0.08 on colorectal adenoma risk. These findings support a role for genetic variants in the BER pathway as potential modifiers of colorectal adenoma risk. Our findings strengthen the role of oxidative damage induced by key lifestyle and dietary risk factors in colorectal adenoma formation.

  6. A Risk-based Assessment And Management Framework For Multipollutant Air Quality

    OpenAIRE

    Frey, H. Christopher; Hubbell, Bryan

    2009-01-01

    The National Research Council recommended both a risk- and performance-based multipollutant approach to air quality management. Specifically, management decisions should be based on minimizing the exposure to, and risk of adverse effects from, multiple sources of air pollution and that the success of these decisions should be measured by how well they achieved this objective. We briefly describe risk analysis and its application within the current approach to air quality management. Recommend...

  7. Cardiovascular risk factors are associated with increased lesion burden and brain atrophy in multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kappus, Natalie; Weinstock-Guttman, Bianca; Hagemeier, Jesper; Kennedy, Cheryl; Melia, Rebecca; Carl, Ellen; Ramasamy, Deepa P; Cherneva, Mariya; Durfee, Jacqueline; Bergsland, Niels; Dwyer, Michael G; Kolb, Channa; Hojnacki, David; Ramanathan, Murali; Zivadinov, Robert

    2016-02-01

    Cardiovascular (CV) risk factors have been associated with changes in clinical outcomes in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). To investigate the frequency of CV risks in patients with MS and their association with MRI outcomes. In a prospective study, 326 patients with relapsing-remitting MS and 163 patients with progressive MS, 61 patients with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and 175 healthy controls (HCs) were screened for CV risks and scanned on a 3T MRI scanner. Examined CV risks included hypertension, heart disease, smoking, overweight/obesity and type 1 diabetes. MRI measures assessed lesion volumes (LVs) and brain atrophy. Association between individual or multiple CV risks and MRI outcomes was examined adjusting for age, sex, race, disease duration and treatment status. Patients with MS showed increased frequency of smoking (51.7% vs 36.5%, p = 0.001) and hypertension (33.9% vs 24.7%, p=0.035) compared with HCs. In total, 49.9% of patients with MS and 36% of HCs showed ≥ 2 CV risks (p = 0.003), while the frequency of ≥ 3 CV risks was 18.8% in the MS group and 8.6% in the HCs group (p = 0.002). In patients with MS, hypertension and heart disease were associated with decreased grey matter (GM) and cortical volumes (p < 0.05), while overweight/obesity was associated with increased T1-LV (p < 0.39) and smoking with decreased whole brain volume (p = 0.049). Increased lateral ventricle volume was associated with heart disease (p = 0.029) in CIS. Patients with MS with one or more CV risks showed increased lesion burden and more advanced brain atrophy. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  8. The design, implementation and acceptability of an integrated intervention to address multiple behavioral and psychosocial risk factors among pregnant African American women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rossi Maryann

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background African American women are at increased risk for poor pregnancy outcomes compared to other racial-ethnic groups. Single or multiple psychosocial and behavioral factors may contribute to this risk. Most interventions focus on singular risks. This paper describes the design, implementation, challenges faced, and acceptability of a behavioral counseling intervention for low income, pregnant African American women which integrated multiple targeted risks into a multi-component format. Methods Six academic institutions in Washington, DC collaborated in the development of a community-wide, primary care research study, DC-HOPE, to improve pregnancy outcomes. Cigarette smoking, environmental tobacco smoke exposure, depression and intimate partner violence were the four risks targeted because of their adverse impact on pregnancy. Evidence-based models for addressing each risk were adapted and integrated into a multiple risk behavior intervention format. Pregnant women attending six urban prenatal clinics were screened for eligibility and risks and randomized to intervention or usual care. The 10-session intervention was delivered in conjunction with prenatal and postpartum care visits. Descriptive statistics on risk factor distributions, intervention attendance and length (i.e., with Results Forty-eight percent of women screened were eligible based on presence of targeted risks, 76% of those eligible were enrolled, and 79% of those enrolled were retained postpartum. Most women reported a single risk factor (61%; 39% had multiple risks. Eighty-four percent of intervention women attended at least one session (60% attended ≥ 4 sessions without disruption of clinic scheduling. Specific risk factor content was delivered as prescribed in 80% or more of the sessions; 78% of sessions were fully completed (where all required risk content was covered. Ninety-three percent of the subsample of intervention women had a positive view of their

  9. Genetic risk and a primary role for cell-mediated immune mechanisms in multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sawcer, Stephen; Hellenthal, Garrett; Pirinen, Matti

    2011-01-01

    Multiple sclerosis is a common disease of the central nervous system in which the interplay between inflammatory and neurodegenerative processes typically results in intermittent neurological disturbance followed by progressive accumulation of disability. Epidemiological studies have shown...... the greatest individual effect on risk. Modestly powered genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have enabled more than 20 additional risk loci to be identified and have shown that multiple variants exerting modest individual effects have a key role in disease susceptibility. Most of the genetic architecture...... underlying susceptibility to the disease remains to be defined and is anticipated to require the analysis of sample sizes that are beyond the numbers currently available to individual research groups. In a collaborative GWAS involving 9,772 cases of European descent collected by 23 research groups working...

  10. Event recognition in personal photo collections via multiple instance learning-based classification of multiple images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Kashif; Conci, Nicola; Boato, Giulia; De Natale, Francesco G. B.

    2017-11-01

    Over the last few years, a rapid growth has been witnessed in the number of digital photos produced per year. This rapid process poses challenges in the organization and management of multimedia collections, and one viable solution consists of arranging the media on the basis of the underlying events. However, album-level annotation and the presence of irrelevant pictures in photo collections make event-based organization of personal photo albums a more challenging task. To tackle these challenges, in contrast to conventional approaches relying on supervised learning, we propose a pipeline for event recognition in personal photo collections relying on a multiple instance-learning (MIL) strategy. MIL is a modified form of supervised learning and fits well for such applications with weakly labeled data. The experimental evaluation of the proposed approach is carried out on two large-scale datasets including a self-collected and a benchmark dataset. On both, our approach significantly outperforms the existing state-of-the-art.

  11. Skeleton-based human action recognition using multiple sequence alignment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Wenwen; Liu, Kai; Cheng, Fei; Zhang, Jin; Li, YunSong

    2015-05-01

    Human action recognition and analysis is an active research topic in computer vision for many years. This paper presents a method to represent human actions based on trajectories consisting of 3D joint positions. This method first decompose action into a sequence of meaningful atomic actions (actionlets), and then label actionlets with English alphabets according to the Davies-Bouldin index value. Therefore, an action can be represented using a sequence of actionlet symbols, which will preserve the temporal order of occurrence of each of the actionlets. Finally, we employ sequence comparison to classify multiple actions through using string matching algorithms (Needleman-Wunsch). The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated on datasets captured by commodity depth cameras. Experiments of the proposed method on three challenging 3D action datasets show promising results.

  12. Whitelists Based Multiple Filtering Techniques in SCADA Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DongHo Kang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Internet of Things (IoT consists of several tiny devices connected together to form a collaborative computing environment. Recently IoT technologies begin to merge with supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA sensor networks to more efficiently gather and analyze real-time data from sensors in industrial environments. But SCADA sensor networks are becoming more and more vulnerable to cyber-attacks due to increased connectivity. To safely adopt IoT technologies in the SCADA environments, it is important to improve the security of SCADA sensor networks. In this paper we propose a multiple filtering technique based on whitelists to detect illegitimate packets. Our proposed system detects the traffic of network and application protocol attacks with a set of whitelists collected from normal traffic.

  13. Monitoring system of multiple fire fighting based on computer vision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jinlong; Wang, Li; Gao, Xiaorong; Wang, Zeyong; Zhao, Quanke

    2010-10-01

    With the high demand of fire control in spacious buildings, computer vision is playing a more and more important role. This paper presents a new monitoring system of multiple fire fighting based on computer vision and color detection. This system can adjust to the fire position and then extinguish the fire by itself. In this paper, the system structure, working principle, fire orientation, hydrant's angle adjusting and system calibration are described in detail; also the design of relevant hardware and software is introduced. At the same time, the principle and process of color detection and image processing are given as well. The system runs well in the test, and it has high reliability, low cost, and easy nodeexpanding, which has a bright prospect of application and popularization.

  14. 12 CFR 567.6 - Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital credit risk-weight... CAPITAL Regulatory Capital Requirements § 567.6 Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories. (a) Risk...)(2) of this section), plus risk-weighted recourse obligations, direct credit substitutes, and certain...

  15. Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tervonen, Tommi; Linkov, Igor; Figueira, Jose Rui; Steevens, Jeffery; Chappell, Mark; Merad, Myriam

    2009-01-01

    Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological materials may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material due to variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as to promote the safe handling and use of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different ecological risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgments. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.

  16. Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tervonen, Tommi, E-mail: t.p.tervonen@rug.n [University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business (Netherlands); Linkov, Igor, E-mail: igor.linkov@usace.army.mi [US Army Research and Development Center (United States); Figueira, Jose Rui, E-mail: figueira@ist.utl.p [Technical University of Lisbon, CEG-IST, Centre for Management Studies, Instituto Superior Tecnico (Portugal); Steevens, Jeffery, E-mail: jeffery.a.steevens@usace.army.mil; Chappell, Mark, E-mail: mark.a.chappell@usace.army.mi [US Army Research and Development Center (United States); Merad, Myriam, E-mail: myriam.merad@ineris.f [INERIS BP 2, Societal Management of Risks Unit/Accidental Risks Division (France)

    2009-05-15

    Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological materials may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material due to variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as to promote the safe handling and use of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different ecological risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgments. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.

  17. Risk-based zoning for urbanizing floodplains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porse, Erik

    2014-01-01

    Urban floodplain development brings economic benefits and enhanced flood risks. Rapidly growing cities must often balance the economic benefits and increased risks of floodplain settlement. Planning can provide multiple flood mitigation and environmental benefits by combining traditional structural measures such as levees, increasingly popular landscape and design features (green infrastructure), and non-structural measures such as zoning. Flexibility in both structural and non-structural options, including zoning procedures, can reduce flood risks. This paper presents a linear programming formulation to assess cost-effective urban floodplain development decisions that consider benefits and costs of development along with expected flood damages. It uses a probabilistic approach to identify combinations of land-use allocations (residential and commercial development, flood channels, distributed runoff management) and zoning regulations (development zones in channel) to maximize benefits. The model is applied to a floodplain planning analysis for an urbanizing region in the Baja Sur peninsula of Mexico. The analysis demonstrates how (1) economic benefits drive floodplain development, (2) flexible zoning can improve economic returns, and (3) cities can use landscapes, enhanced by technology and design, to manage floods. The framework can incorporate additional green infrastructure benefits, and bridges typical disciplinary gaps for planning and engineering.

  18. Effective arithmetic in finite fields based on Chudnovsky's multiplication algorithm

    OpenAIRE

    Atighehchi , Kévin; Ballet , Stéphane; Bonnecaze , Alexis; Rolland , Robert

    2016-01-01

    International audience; Thanks to a new construction of the Chudnovsky and Chudnovsky multiplication algorithm, we design efficient algorithms for both the exponentiation and the multiplication in finite fields. They are tailored to hardware implementation and they allow computations to be parallelized, while maintaining a low number of bilinear multiplications.À partir d'une nouvelle construction de l'algorithme de multiplication de Chudnovsky et Chudnovsky, nous concevons des algorithmes ef...

  19. The risk of fracture in patients with multiple sclerosis: The UK general practice research database

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bazelier, Marloes T; van Staa, Tjeerd; Uitdehaag, Bernard Mj

    2011-01-01

    Patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) may be at an increased risk of fracture owing to a greater risk of falling and decreased bone mineral density when compared with the general population. This study was designed to estimate the relative and absolute risk of fracture in patients with MS. We...... were used to derive adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for fracture associated with MS. Time-dependent adjustments were made for age, comorbidity, and drug use. Absolute 5- and 10-year risks of fracture were estimated for MS patients as a function of age. Compared with controls, MS patients had an almost...... threefold increased risk of hip fracture [HR = 2.79,95% confidence interval (CI) 1.83-4.26] and a risk of osteoporotic fracture that was increased 1.4-fold (HR = 1.35,95% CI 1.13-1.62). Risk was greater in patients who had been prescribed oral/intravenous glucocorticoids (GCs; HR = 1.85, 95% CI 1...

  20. Using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bland, Lucie M; Regan, Tracey J; Dinh, Minh Ngoc; Ferrari, Renata; Keith, David A; Lester, Rebecca; Mouillot, David; Murray, Nicholas J; Nguyen, Hoang Anh; Nicholson, Emily

    2017-09-27

    Effective ecosystem risk assessment relies on a conceptual understanding of ecosystem dynamics and the synthesis of multiple lines of evidence. Risk assessment protocols and ecosystem models integrate limited observational data with threat scenarios, making them valuable tools for monitoring ecosystem status and diagnosing key mechanisms of decline to be addressed by management. We applied the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria to quantify the risk of collapse of the Meso-American Reef, a unique ecosystem containing the second longest barrier reef in the world. We collated a wide array of empirical data (field and remotely sensed), and used a stochastic ecosystem model to backcast past ecosystem dynamics, as well as forecast future ecosystem dynamics under 11 scenarios of threat. The ecosystem is at high risk from mass bleaching in the coming decades, with compounding effects of ocean acidification, hurricanes, pollution and fishing. The overall status of the ecosystem is Critically Endangered (plausibly Vulnerable to Critically Endangered), with notable differences among Red List criteria and data types in detecting the most severe symptoms of risk. Our case study provides a template for assessing risks to coral reefs and for further application of ecosystem models in risk assessment. © 2017 The Authors.

  1. Examining relationships between multiple health risk behaviors, well-being, and productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evers, Kerry E; Castle, Patricia H; Prochaska, James O; Prochaska, Janice M

    2014-06-01

    Traditionally, the concept of health promotion has emphasized the reduction of health risk behaviors to reduce disease and impairment. Well-being research expands this focus to include positive constructs such as thriving, productivity, life-evaluation, and emotional and physical health. The objective of the present study was to examine the relationships between health risk behaviors and specific measures of individual well-being. Participants (N = 790) from 49 states completed a one-time online assessment that included the Life-Evaluation Index, Emotional and Physical Health Ladders, the Health Risk Intervention Assessment, and the Work Productivity and Activity Improvement Questionnaire for General Health. Life Evaluation and physical and emotional health were all inversely related to the number of health risk behaviors, with higher well-being scores associated with lower number of risk behaviors. Across the three Life Evaluation categories (Suffering, Struggling, and Thriving) the number of health risk behaviors decreased, productivity loss decreased, and emotional and physical health increased. The results add to previous research on how reducing multiple health risk behaviors can be combined with well-being, i.e., an emphasis on increasing life-evaluation, emotional and physical health, better functioning, and productivity.

  2. Probabilistic risk assessment framework for structural systems under multiple hazards using Bayesian statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwag, Shinyoung; Gupta, Abhinav

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • This study presents the development of Bayesian framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of structural systems under multiple hazards. • The concepts of Bayesian network and Bayesian inference are combined by mapping the traditionally used fault trees into a Bayesian network. • The proposed mapping allows for consideration of dependencies as well as correlations between events. • Incorporation of Bayesian inference permits a novel way for exploration of a scenario that is likely to result in a system level “vulnerability.” - Abstract: Conventional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies (USNRC, 1983; IAEA, 1992; EPRI, 1994; Ellingwood, 2001) conduct risk assessment for different external hazards by considering each hazard separately and independent of each other. The risk metric for a specific hazard is evaluated by a convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves. The fragility curve for basic event is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data for a particular hazard. Treating each hazard as an independently can be inappropriate in some cases as certain hazards are statistically correlated or dependent. Examples of such correlated events include but are not limited to flooding induced fire, seismically induced internal or external flooding, or even seismically induced fire. In the current practice, system level risk and consequence sequences are typically calculated using logic trees to express the causative relationship between events. In this paper, we present the results from a study on multi-hazard risk assessment that is conducted using a Bayesian network (BN) with Bayesian inference. The framework can consider statistical dependencies among risks from multiple hazards, allows updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level, and provide a novel way to explore alternative failure scenarios that may exist due to vulnerabilities.

  3. Probabilistic risk assessment framework for structural systems under multiple hazards using Bayesian statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwag, Shinyoung [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States); Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Gupta, Abhinav, E-mail: agupta1@ncsu.edu [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States)

    2017-04-15

    Highlights: • This study presents the development of Bayesian framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of structural systems under multiple hazards. • The concepts of Bayesian network and Bayesian inference are combined by mapping the traditionally used fault trees into a Bayesian network. • The proposed mapping allows for consideration of dependencies as well as correlations between events. • Incorporation of Bayesian inference permits a novel way for exploration of a scenario that is likely to result in a system level “vulnerability.” - Abstract: Conventional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies (USNRC, 1983; IAEA, 1992; EPRI, 1994; Ellingwood, 2001) conduct risk assessment for different external hazards by considering each hazard separately and independent of each other. The risk metric for a specific hazard is evaluated by a convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves. The fragility curve for basic event is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data for a particular hazard. Treating each hazard as an independently can be inappropriate in some cases as certain hazards are statistically correlated or dependent. Examples of such correlated events include but are not limited to flooding induced fire, seismically induced internal or external flooding, or even seismically induced fire. In the current practice, system level risk and consequence sequences are typically calculated using logic trees to express the causative relationship between events. In this paper, we present the results from a study on multi-hazard risk assessment that is conducted using a Bayesian network (BN) with Bayesian inference. The framework can consider statistical dependencies among risks from multiple hazards, allows updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level, and provide a novel way to explore alternative failure scenarios that may exist due to vulnerabilities.

  4. Risk Governance of Multiple Natural Hazards: Centralized versus Decentralized Approach in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komendantova, Nadejda; Scolobig, Anna; Vinchon, Charlotte

    2014-05-01

    The multi-risk approach is a relatively new field and its definition includes the need to consider multiple hazards and vulnerabilities in their interdependency (Selva, 2013) and the current multi-hazards disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear catastrophe, showed the need for a multi-risk approach in hazard mitigation and management. Our knowledge about multi-risk assessment, including studies from different scientific disciplines and developed assessment tools, is constantly growing (White et al., 2001). However, the link between scientific knowledge, its implementation and the results in terms of improved governance and decision-making have gained significantly less attention (IRGC, 2005; Kappes et al., 2012), even though the interest to risk governance, in general, has increased significantly during the last years (Verweiy and Thompson, 2006). Therefore, the key research question is how risk assessment is implemented and what is the potential for the implementation of a multi-risk approach in different governance systems across Europe. More precisely, how do the characteristics of risk governance, such as the degree of centralization versus decentralization, influence the implementation of a multi-risk approach. The methodology of this research includes comparative case study analysis of top-down and bottom-up interactions in governance in the city of Naples, (Italy), where the institutional landscape is marked by significant autonomy of Italian regions in decision-making processes for assessing the majority of natural risks, excluding volcanic, and in Guadeloupe, French West Indies, an overseas department of France, where the decision-making process is marked by greater centralization in decision making associated with a well established state governance within regions, delegated to the prefect and decentralised services of central ministries. The research design included documentary analysis and extensive empirical work involving

  5. Using multiple sampling approaches to measure sexual risk-taking among young people in Haiti: programmatic implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speizer, Ilene S; Beauvais, Harry; Gómez, Anu Manchikanti; Outlaw, Theresa Finn; Roussel, Barbara

    2009-12-01

    No previous published research has examined the applicability of varying methods for identifying young people who are at high risk of experiencing unintended pregnancy and acquiring HIV infection. This study compares three surveys of young people aged 15-24 in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, in terms of their sociodemographic characteristics and sexual behaviors and the surveys'usefulness for identifying young people at high risk and for program planning. The surveys consist of responses from: a representative sample of young people in the 2005-06 Haiti Demographic and Health Survey (HDHS), a 2004 facility-based study, and a 2006-07 venue-based study that used the Priorities for Local AIDS Control Efforts (PLACE) method. The facility-based and PLACE studies included larger proportions of single, sexually experienced young people and people who knew someone with HIV/ AIDS than did the HDHS. More respondents in the PLACE sample had multiple sex partners in the past year and received money or gifts in return for sex, compared with respondents in the facility study. At first and last sex, more PLACE respondents used contraceptives, including condoms. Experience of pregnancy was most commonly reported in the data from the facility-based sample; however, more ever-pregnant PLACE respondents than others reported ever having terminated a pregnancy. Program managers seeking to implement prevention activities should consider using facility- or venue-based methods to identify and understand the behaviors of young people at high risk.

  6. Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

    2016-07-01

    Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Multiple attribute decision making model and application to food safety risk evaluation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lihua Ma

    Full Text Available Decision making for supermarket food purchase decisions are characterized by network relationships. This paper analyzed factors that influence supermarket food selection and proposes a supplier evaluation index system based on the whole process of food production. The author established the intuitive interval value fuzzy set evaluation model based on characteristics of the network relationship among decision makers, and validated for a multiple attribute decision making case study. Thus, the proposed model provides a reliable, accurate method for multiple attribute decision making.

  8. Vulnerability and risk of deltaic social-ecological systems exposed to multiple hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagenlocher, Michael; Renaud, Fabrice G; Haas, Susanne; Sebesvari, Zita

    2018-08-01

    Coastal river deltas are hotspots of global change impacts. Sustainable delta futures are increasingly threatened due to rising hazard exposure combined with high vulnerabilities of deltaic social-ecological systems. While the need for integrated multi-hazard approaches has been clearly articulated, studies on vulnerability and risk in deltas either focus on local case studies or single hazards and do not apply a social-ecological systems perspective. As a result, vulnerabilities and risks in areas with strong social and ecological coupling, such as coastal deltas, are not fully understood and the identification of risk reduction and adaptation strategies are often based on incomplete assumptions. To overcome these limitations, we propose an innovative modular indicator library-based approach for the assessment of multi-hazard risk of social-ecological systems across and within coastal deltas globally, and apply it to the Amazon, Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM), and Mekong deltas. Results show that multi-hazard risk is highest in the GBM delta and lowest in the Amazon delta. The analysis reveals major differences between social and environmental vulnerability across the three deltas, notably in the Mekong and the GBM deltas where environmental vulnerability is significantly higher than social vulnerability. Hotspots and drivers of risk vary spatially, thus calling for spatially targeted risk reduction and adaptation strategies within the deltas. Ecosystems have been identified as both an important element at risk as well as an entry point for risk reduction and adaptation strategies. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  9. Risk-based optimization of land reclamation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lendering, K.T.; Jonkman, S.N.; Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. van; Peters, D.J.

    2015-01-01

    Large-scale land reclamations are generally constructed by means of a landfill well above mean sea level. This can be costly in areas where good quality fill material is scarce. An alternative to save materials and costs is a ‘polder terminal’. The quay wall acts as a flood defense and the terminal level is well below the level of the quay wall. Compared with a conventional terminal, the costs are lower, but an additional flood risk is introduced. In this paper, a risk-based optimization is developed for a conventional and a polder terminal. It considers the investment and residual flood risk. The method takes into account both the quay wall and terminal level, which determine the probability and damage of flooding. The optimal quay wall level is found by solving a Lambert function numerically. The terminal level is bounded by engineering boundary conditions, i.e. piping and uplift of the cover layer of the terminal yard. It is found that, for a representative case study, the saving of reclamation costs for a polder terminal is larger than the increase of flood risk. The model is applicable to other cases of land reclamation and to similar optimization problems in flood risk management. - Highlights: • A polder terminal can be an attractive alternative for a conventional terminal. • A polder terminal is feasible at locations with high reclamation cost. • A risk-based approach is required to determine the optimal protection levels. • The depth of the polder terminal yard is bounded by uplifting of the cover layer. • This paper can support decisions regarding alternatives for port expansions.

  10. Clustering of Multiple Lifestyle Behaviours and Its Association to Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bel-Serrat, Silvia; Mouratidou, Theodora; Santaliestra-Pasías, Alba María

    2013-01-01

    ratio, triglycerides, sum of two skinfolds and systolic blood pressure (SBP) z-scores were summed to compute a CVD risk score. Cluster analyses stratified by sex and age groups (2 to ...) consumption, PA performance and television video/DVD viewing. RESULTS: Five clusters were identified. Associations between CVD risk factors and score, and clusters were obtained by multiple linear regression using cluster 5 (‘low beverages consumption and low sedentary’) as the reference cluster. SBP...... association was observed between CVD risk score and clusters 2 (β=0.60; 95% CI: 0.20, 1.01), 3 (β=0.55; 95% CI: 0.14, 0.97) and 4 (β=0.60, 95% CI: 0.18, 1.02) in older boys. CONCLUSIONS: Low television/video/DVD viewing levels and low SSB consumption may result in a healthier CVD profile rather than having...

  11. Interactions between SNPs affecting inflammatory response genes are associated with multiple myeloma disease risk and survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kaspar René; Rodrigo-Domingo, Maria; Steffensen, Rudi

    2017-01-01

    The origin of multiple myeloma depends on interactions with stromal cells in the course of normal B-cell differentiation and evolution of immunity. The concept of the present study is that genes involved in MM pathogenesis, such as immune response genes, can be identified by screening for single......3L1 gene promoters. The occurrence of single polymorphisms, haplotypes and SNP-SNP interactions were statistically analyzed for association with disease risk and outcome following high-dose therapy. Identified genes that carried SNPs or haplotypes that were identified as risk or prognostic factors......= .005). The 'risk genes' were analyzed for expression in normal B-cell subsets (N = 6) from seven healthy donors and we found TNFA and IL-6 expressed both in naïve and in memory B cells when compared to preBI, II, immature and plasma cells. The 'prognosis genes' CHI3L1, IL-6 and IL-10 were differential...

  12. Efficacy and toxicity profile of carfilzomib based regimens for treatment of multiple myeloma: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mushtaq, Adeela; Kapoor, Vikas; Latif, Azka; Iftikhar, Ahmad; Zahid, Umar; McBride, Ali; Abraham, Ivo; Riaz, Irbaz Bin; Anwer, Faiz

    2018-05-01

    Standard induction therapy for multiple myeloma is three-drug combination based on following classes of drugs: proteasome inhibitors, immunomodulators and steroids. Despite its notable efficacy, bortezomib has side effects like peripheral neuropathy (PNP) with reported incidence of grade ≥3 PNP between 2%-23% Schlafer et al., 2017. Carfilzomib (CFZ) has high selectivity and minimal off-target adverse effects including lower rates of PNP. CFZ is already approved for treatment of relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM) as single agent as well as in combination with lenalidomide and/or dexamethasone. Extensive literature search identified a total of 1839 articles. Twenty-six articles (n = 5980) met the inclusion criteria, 15 in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) and 11 in RRMM group. CFZ demonstrates comparable or even better efficacy to bortezomib with much favorable AE profile. Deep, rapid and sustainable response using KRd with safer toxicity profile supports extension of KRd therapy to frontline therapy for all risk categories of MM. High incidence of grade ≥3 HTN underscores the importance of serial BP monitoring. In RRMM, CFZ has documented efficacy with standard 20-27mg/m2 dose. Further large-scale trials are needed to study benefit-to-risk profile of 20-56 and 20-70 mg/m2 dose of CFZ vs standard 20-27 mg/m2 dose in NDMM and RRMM. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. 13 CFR 120.1000 - Risk-Based Lender Oversight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-Based Lender Oversight. 120.1000 Section 120.1000 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1000 Risk-Based Lender Oversight. (a) Risk-Based Lender...

  14. A case-control study of risk factors for multiple sclerosis in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Alvaro; Cook, Stuart D; Maghzi, Amir-Hadi; Divani, Afshin A

    2011-05-01

    Numerous studies have assessed risk factors for multiple sclerosis (MS), although none have been conducted previously in Iran. The objective of this study was to study lifestyle and environmental risk factors of MS in the Iranian population. A case-control study, including 394 MS cases and 394 matched controls, was conducted in MS clinics in different Iranian cities. Information on lifestyles, environmental exposures, and past medical history was obtained from medical charts and phone interviews. In multivariable analysis, sunlight exposure was associated with a lower risk of MS: the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of MS associated with a 1-h increment in daily sunlight was 0.62 (0.53-0.73). Smoking was associated with MS risk in women (OR: 6.48, 95% CI: 1.46-28.78), but not in men (OR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.31-1.68) (p=0.002 for interaction). Finally, past history of common surgical procedures, infectious disorders, or exposure to pets and farm animals was not associated with MS risk. Different modifiable lifestyles, including sunlight exposure and smoking, were associated with lower MS risk in Iran. Interventions aimed at promoting smoking cessation and, more importantly, at increasing exposure to sunlight might contribute to the prevention of MS.

  15. High EDSS can predict risk for upper urinary tract damage in patients with multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ineichen, Benjamin V; Schneider, Marc P; Hlavica, Martin; Hagenbuch, Niels; Linnebank, Michael; Kessler, Thomas M

    2018-04-01

    Neurogenic lower urinary tract dysfunction (NLUTD) is very common in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), and it might jeopardize renal function and thereby increase mortality. Although there are well-known urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage, no clinical prediction parameters are available. We aimed to assess clinical parameters potentially predicting urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage. A consecutive series of 141 patients with MS referred from neurologists for primary neuro-urological work-up including urodynamics were prospectively evaluated. Clinical parameters taken into account were age, sex, duration, and clinical course of MS and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Multivariate modeling revealed EDSS as a clinical parameter significantly associated with urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage (odds ratio = 1.34, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.06-1.71, p = 0.02). Using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves, an EDSS of 5.0 as cutoff showed a sensitivity of 86%-87% and a specificity of 52% for at least one urodynamic risk factor for upper urinary tract damage. High EDSS is significantly associated with urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage and allows a risk-dependent stratification in daily neurological clinical practice to identify MS patients requiring further neuro-urological assessment and treatment.

  16. Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luxhoj, J. T.; Ancel, E.; Green, L. L.; Shih, A. T.; Jones, S. M.; Reveley, M. S.

    2014-01-01

    Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

  17. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  18. Relationship Between Physiological and Perceived Fall Risk in People With Multiple Sclerosis: Implications for Assessment and Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunn, Hilary; Cameron, Michelle; Hoang, Phu; Lord, Stephen; Shaw, Steve; Freeman, Jennifer

    2018-04-24

    This study evaluated the relationship between physiological and perceived fall risk in people with multiple sclerosis (MS). Secondary analysis of data from prospective cohort studies undertaken in Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Community. Ambulatory people with MS (N=416) (age 51.5±12.0 years; 73% female; 62% relapsing-remitting MS; 13.7±9.9 years disease duration). Not applicable. All participants completed measures of physiological (Physiological Profile Assessment [PPA]) and perceived (Falls Efficacy Scale-international [FESi]) fall risk and prospectively recorded falls for 3 months. 155 (37%) of the participants were recurrent fallers (≥2 falls). Mean PPA and FESi scores were high (PPA 2.14±1.87, FESi 34.27±11.18). The PPA and the FESi independently predicted faller classification in logistic regression, which indicated that the odds of being classified as a recurrent faller significantly increased with increasing scores (PPA odds ratio [OR] 1.30 [95% CI 1.17-1.46], FESi OR 1.05 [95% CI 1.03-1.07]). Classification and regression tree analysis divided the sample into four groups based on cutoff values for the PPA: (1) low physiological/low perceived risk (PPA 27.5), (3) high physiological/low perceived risk (PPA >2.83, FESi 35.5). Over 50% of participants had a disparity between perceived and physiological fall risk; most were in group 2. It is possible that physiological risk factors not detected by the PPA may also be influential. This study highlights the importance of considering both physiological and perceived fall risk in MS and the need for further research to explore the complex interrelationships of perceptual and physiological risk factors in this population. This study also supports the importance of developing behavioral and physical interventions that can be tailored to the individual's needs. Copyright © 2018 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Associated Risk Factors of STIs and Multiple Sexual Relationships among Youths in Malawi.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Chialepeh N

    Full Text Available Having unprotected sex with multiple sexual partners (MSP is the greatest risk factor for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs among youths. Young people with MSPs are less likely to use a condom and the greater the risk for STIs. This study examines the associated risk factors of STIs and multiple sexual partnerships among youths aged 15-24 years.The Malawi Demographic Health Survey 2010 data was used. Out of a sample of 2,987 males and 9,559 females aged 15-24 years, 2,026 males and 6,470 females were considered in the study. Chi square test and logistic regression techniques were performed. Analysis was performed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS version 22.The results indicate that 1,399 (69.0% males and 2,290 (35.4% females reported multiple sexual partnerships (MSP. Within the rural area, females (n = 1779 were more likely to report MSP than males (n = 1082 and within the urban areas, a higher proportion of females (n = 511 still reported MSP, with males (n = 316. About 78% rural females aged 20-24 years, and about 79% rural males aged 15-19 years reported MSP. The likelihood of MSP was higher among females in the poorest households (OR = 1.31, being married (OR = 5.71 and Catholic males (OR = 1.63, who were married (OR = 1.59. Catholic males (OR = 1.82 in the rural areas, who were married (OR = 1.80 and rural females in the northern region (OR = 1.26 were more likely to have MSP. The odds ratios were higher among urban females in the poorest (OR = 3.45 households who were married (OR = 4.22.Having more than one sexual partner increases the risk of STIs and sexuality education programs should be introduced that emphasize the danger that surrounds MSP.

  20. Determination of osteoporosis risk factors using a multiple logistic regression model in postmenopausal Turkish women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akkus, Zeki; Camdeviren, Handan; Celik, Fatma; Gur, Ali; Nas, Kemal

    2005-09-01

    To determine the risk factors of osteoporosis using a multiple binary logistic regression method and to assess the risk variables for osteoporosis, which is a major and growing health problem in many countries. We presented a case-control study, consisting of 126 postmenopausal healthy women as control group and 225 postmenopausal osteoporotic women as the case group. The study was carried out in the Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Dicle University, Diyarbakir, Turkey between 1999-2002. The data from the 351 participants were collected using a standard questionnaire that contains 43 variables. A multiple logistic regression model was then used to evaluate the data and to find the best regression model. We classified 80.1% (281/351) of the participants using the regression model. Furthermore, the specificity value of the model was 67% (84/126) of the control group while the sensitivity value was 88% (197/225) of the case group. We found the distribution of residual values standardized for final model to be exponential using the Kolmogorow-Smirnow test (p=0.193). The receiver operating characteristic curve was found successful to predict patients with risk for osteoporosis. This study suggests that low levels of dietary calcium intake, physical activity, education, and longer duration of menopause are independent predictors of the risk of low bone density in our population. Adequate dietary calcium intake in combination with maintaining a daily physical activity, increasing educational level, decreasing birth rate, and duration of breast-feeding may contribute to healthy bones and play a role in practical prevention of osteoporosis in Southeast Anatolia. In addition, the findings of the present study indicate that the use of multivariate statistical method as a multiple logistic regression in osteoporosis, which maybe influenced by many variables, is better than univariate statistical evaluation.

  1. Psychosocial risks associated with multiple births resulting from assisted reproduction: a Spanish sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roca de Bes, Montserrat; Gutierrez Maldonado, José; Gris Martínez, José M

    2009-09-01

    To determine the psychosocial risks associated with multiple births (twins or triplets) resulting from assisted reproductive technology (ART). Transverse study. Infertility units of a university hospital and a private hospital. Mothers and fathers of children between 6 months and 4 years conceived by ART (n = 123). The sample was divided into three groups: parents of singletons (n = 77), twins (n = 37), and triplets (n = 9). The questionnaire was self-administered by patients. It was either completed at the hospital or mailed to participants' homes. Scales measured material needs, quality of life, social stigma, depression, stress, and marital satisfaction. Logistic regression models were applied. Significant odds ratios were obtained for the number of children, material needs, social stigma, quality of life, and marital satisfaction. The results were more significant for data provided by mothers than by fathers. The informed consent form handed out at the beginning of ART should include information on the high risk of conceiving twins and triplets and on the possible psychosocial consequences of multiple births. As soon as a multiple pregnancy is confirmed, it would be useful to provide information on support groups and institutions. Psychological advice should also be given to the parents.

  2. Cumulative health risk assessment: integrated approaches for multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rice, Glenn; Teuschler, Linda; MacDonel, Margaret; Butler, Jim; Finster, Molly; Hertzberg, Rick; Harou, Lynne

    2007-01-01

    Available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: As information about environmental contamination has increased in recent years, so has public interest in the combined effects of multiple contaminants. This interest has been highlighted by recent tragedies such as the World Trade Center disaster and hurricane Katrina. In fact, assessing multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects has long been an issue for contaminated sites, including U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) legacy waste sites. Local citizens have explicitly asked the federal government to account for cumulative risks, with contaminants moving offsite via groundwater flow, surface runoff, and air dispersal being a common emphasis. Multiple exposures range from ingestion and inhalation to dermal absorption and external gamma irradiation. Three types of concerns can lead to cumulative assessments: (1) specific sources or releases - e.g., industrial facilities or accidental discharges; (2) contaminant levels - in environmental media or human tissues; and (3) elevated rates of disease - e.g., asthma or cancer. The specific initiator frames the assessment strategy, including a determination of appropriate models to be used. Approaches are being developed to better integrate a variety of data, extending from environmental to internal co-location of contaminants and combined effects, to support more practical assessments of cumulative health risks. (authors)

  3. Up and down the sanitation ladder: Harmonizing the treatment and multiple-barrier perspectives on risk reduction in wastewater irrigated agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keraita, Bernard; Drechsel, P.; Konradsen, Flemming

    2010-01-01

    This paper discusses two prominent perspectives in the debate on risk reduction in wastewater irrigation; reliance on conventional wastewater treatment and the multiple-barrier approach. The treatment perspective is based on water-quality standards for wastewater irrigation with treatment...... considered the ultimate risk reductionmeasure. The somewhat broader multiple-barrier perspective supports the use of a combination of pre-farm, on-farm and postfarm barriers, including, where possible, wastewater treatment, to meet required health targets. The discussion in this paper shows that each...

  4. Using risk based tools in emergency response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dixon, B.W.; Ferns, K.G.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques are used by the nuclear industry to model the potential response of a reactor subjected to unusual conditions. The knowledge contained in these models can aid in emergency response decision making. This paper presents requirements for a PRA based emergency response support system to date. A brief discussion of published work provides background for a detailed description of recent developments. A rapid deep assessment capability for specific portions of full plant models is presented. The program uses a screening rule base to control search space expansion in a combinational algorithm

  5. Historical Perspective and Risk of Multiple Neglected Tropical Diseases in Coastal Tanzania: Compositional and Contextual Determinants of Disease Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armah, Frederick Ato; Quansah, Reginald; Luginaah, Isaac; Chuenpagdee, Ratana; Hambati, Herbert; Campbell, Gwyn

    2015-01-01

    In the past decade, research on neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has intensified in response to the need to enhance community participation in health delivery, establish monitoring and surveillance systems, and integrate existing disease-specific treatment programs to control overlapping NTD burdens and detrimental effects. In this paper, we evaluated the geographical distribution of NTDs in coastal Tanzania. We also assessed the collective (compositional and contextual) factors that currently determine risks to multiple NTDs using a cross sectional survey of 1253 individuals in coastal Tanzania. The results show that the effect size in decreasing order of magnitude for non-binary predictors of NTD risks is as follows: NTD comorbidities > poverty > educational attainment > self-reported household quality of life > ethnicity. The multivariate analysis explained 95% of the variance in the relationship between NTD risks and the theoretically-relevant covariates. Compositional (biosocial and sociocultural) factors explained more variance at the neighbourhood level than at the regional level, whereas contextual factors, such as access to health services and household quality, in districts explained a large proportion of variance at the regional level but individually had modest statistical significance, demonstrating the complex interactions between compositional and contextual factors in generating NTD risks. NTD risks were inequitably distributed over geographic space, which has several important policy implications. First, it suggests that localities of high burden of NTDs are likely to diminish within statistical averages at higher (regional or national) levels. Second, it indicates that curative or preventive interventions will become more efficient provided they can be focused on the localities, particularly as populations in these localities are likely to be burdened by several NTDs simultaneously, further increasing the imperative of multi

  6. Historical Perspective and Risk of Multiple Neglected Tropical Diseases in Coastal Tanzania: Compositional and Contextual Determinants of Disease Risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frederick Ato Armah

    Full Text Available In the past decade, research on neglected tropical diseases (NTDs has intensified in response to the need to enhance community participation in health delivery, establish monitoring and surveillance systems, and integrate existing disease-specific treatment programs to control overlapping NTD burdens and detrimental effects. In this paper, we evaluated the geographical distribution of NTDs in coastal Tanzania.We also assessed the collective (compositional and contextual factors that currently determine risks to multiple NTDs using a cross sectional survey of 1253 individuals in coastal Tanzania. The results show that the effect size in decreasing order of magnitude for non-binary predictors of NTD risks is as follows: NTD comorbidities > poverty > educational attainment > self-reported household quality of life > ethnicity. The multivariate analysis explained 95% of the variance in the relationship between NTD risks and the theoretically-relevant covariates. Compositional (biosocial and sociocultural factors explained more variance at the neighbourhood level than at the regional level, whereas contextual factors, such as access to health services and household quality, in districts explained a large proportion of variance at the regional level but individually had modest statistical significance, demonstrating the complex interactions between compositional and contextual factors in generating NTD risks.NTD risks were inequitably distributed over geographic space, which has several important policy implications. First, it suggests that localities of high burden of NTDs are likely to diminish within statistical averages at higher (regional or national levels. Second, it indicates that curative or preventive interventions will become more efficient provided they can be focused on the localities, particularly as populations in these localities are likely to be burdened by several NTDs simultaneously, further increasing the imperative of multi

  7. Vanpool trip planning based on evolutionary multiple objective optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Ming; Yang, Disheng; Feng, Shibing; Liu, Hengchang

    2017-08-01

    Carpool and vanpool draw a lot of researchers’ attention, which is the emphasis of this paper. A concrete vanpool operation definition is given, based on the given definition, this paper tackles vanpool operation optimization using user experience decline index(UEDI). This paper is focused on making each user having identical UEDI and the system having minimum sum of all users’ UEDI. Three contributions are made, the first contribution is a vanpool operation scheme diagram, each component of the scheme is explained in detail. The second contribution is getting all customer’s UEDI as a set, standard deviation and sum of all users’ UEDI set are used as objectives in multiple objective optimization to decide trip start address, trip start time and trip destination address. The third contribution is a trip planning algorithm, which tries to minimize the sum of all users’ UEDI. Geographical distribution of the charging stations and utilization rate of the charging stations are considered in the trip planning process.

  8. Video Multiple Watermarking Technique Based on Image Interlacing Using DWT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed M. Ibrahim

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Digital watermarking is one of the important techniques to secure digital media files in the domains of data authentication and copyright protection. In the nonblind watermarking systems, the need of the original host file in the watermark recovery operation makes an overhead over the system resources, doubles memory capacity, and doubles communications bandwidth. In this paper, a robust video multiple watermarking technique is proposed to solve this problem. This technique is based on image interlacing. In this technique, three-level discrete wavelet transform (DWT is used as a watermark embedding/extracting domain, Arnold transform is used as a watermark encryption/decryption method, and different types of media (gray image, color image, and video are used as watermarks. The robustness of this technique is tested by applying different types of attacks such as: geometric, noising, format-compression, and image-processing attacks. The simulation results show the effectiveness and good performance of the proposed technique in saving system resources, memory capacity, and communications bandwidth.

  9. Video multiple watermarking technique based on image interlacing using DWT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Mohamed M; Abdel Kader, Neamat S; Zorkany, M

    2014-01-01

    Digital watermarking is one of the important techniques to secure digital media files in the domains of data authentication and copyright protection. In the nonblind watermarking systems, the need of the original host file in the watermark recovery operation makes an overhead over the system resources, doubles memory capacity, and doubles communications bandwidth. In this paper, a robust video multiple watermarking technique is proposed to solve this problem. This technique is based on image interlacing. In this technique, three-level discrete wavelet transform (DWT) is used as a watermark embedding/extracting domain, Arnold transform is used as a watermark encryption/decryption method, and different types of media (gray image, color image, and video) are used as watermarks. The robustness of this technique is tested by applying different types of attacks such as: geometric, noising, format-compression, and image-processing attacks. The simulation results show the effectiveness and good performance of the proposed technique in saving system resources, memory capacity, and communications bandwidth.

  10. Automatic feature-based grouping during multiple object tracking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erlikhman, Gennady; Keane, Brian P; Mettler, Everett; Horowitz, Todd S; Kellman, Philip J

    2013-12-01

    Contour interpolation automatically binds targets with distractors to impair multiple object tracking (Keane, Mettler, Tsoi, & Kellman, 2011). Is interpolation special in this regard or can other features produce the same effect? To address this question, we examined the influence of eight features on tracking: color, contrast polarity, orientation, size, shape, depth, interpolation, and a combination (shape, color, size). In each case, subjects tracked 4 of 8 objects that began as undifferentiated shapes, changed features as motion began (to enable grouping), and returned to their undifferentiated states before halting. We found that intertarget grouping improved performance for all feature types except orientation and interpolation (Experiment 1 and Experiment 2). Most importantly, target-distractor grouping impaired performance for color, size, shape, combination, and interpolation. The impairments were, at times, large (>15% decrement in accuracy) and occurred relative to a homogeneous condition in which all objects had the same features at each moment of a trial (Experiment 2), and relative to a "diversity" condition in which targets and distractors had different features at each moment (Experiment 3). We conclude that feature-based grouping occurs for a variety of features besides interpolation, even when irrelevant to task instructions and contrary to the task demands, suggesting that interpolation is not unique in promoting automatic grouping in tracking tasks. Our results also imply that various kinds of features are encoded automatically and in parallel during tracking.

  11. Global Calibration of Multiple Cameras Based on Sphere Targets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junhua Sun

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Global calibration methods for multi-camera system are critical to the accuracy of vision measurement. Proposed in this paper is such a method based on several groups of sphere targets and a precision auxiliary camera. Each camera to be calibrated observes a group of spheres (at least three, while the auxiliary camera observes all the spheres. The global calibration can be achieved after each camera reconstructs the sphere centers in its field of view. In the process of reconstructing a sphere center, a parameter equation is used to describe the sphere projection model. Theoretical analysis and computer simulation are carried out to analyze the factors that affect the calibration accuracy. Simulation results show that the parameter equation can largely improve the reconstruction accuracy. In the experiments, a two-camera system calibrated by our method is used to measure a distance about 578 mm, and the root mean squared error is within 0.14 mm. Furthermore, the experiments indicate that the method has simple operation and good flexibility, especially for the onsite multiple cameras without common field of view.

  12. The residues and environmental risks of multiple veterinary antibiotics in animal faeces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yan-Xia; Zhang, Xue-Lian; Li, Wei; Lu, Xiao-Fei; Liu, Bei; Wang, Jing

    2013-03-01

    To understand the residues and ecological risks of veterinary antibiotics (VAs) in animal faeces from concentrated animal feeding operations in northeastern China, 14 VAs were identified by high performance liquid chromatography, and the preliminary risks of six antibiotics were assessed using the hazard quotient (HQ). The investigated VAs occurred in 7.41 to 57.41 % of the 54 samples, and the levels ranged from 0.08 to 56.81 mg kg(-1). Tetracyclines were predominant with a maximum level of 56.81 mg kg(-1) mostly detected in pig faeces. Sulfonamides were common and detected with the highest concentration of 7.11 mg kg(-1). Fluoroquinolones were more widely detected in chicken faeces rather than in pig or cow faeces, which contained the dominant antibiotic enrofloxacin. In comparison, the residue of tylosin was less frequently found. The risk evaluations of the six antibiotics revealed that tetracyclines, especially oxytetracycline, displayed the greatest ecological risk because of its high HQ value of 15.75. The results of this study imply that multiple kinds of VAs were jointly used in animal feeding processes in the study area. These medicine residues in animal faeces may potentially bring ecological risks if the animal manure is not treated effectively.

  13. Multiple imputation for estimating the risk of developing dementia and its impact on survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Binbing; Saczynski, Jane S; Launer, Lenore

    2010-10-01

    Dementia, Alzheimer's disease in particular, is one of the major causes of disability and decreased quality of life among the elderly and a leading obstacle to successful aging. Given the profound impact on public health, much research has focused on the age-specific risk of developing dementia and the impact on survival. Early work has discussed various methods of estimating age-specific incidence of dementia, among which the illness-death model is popular for modeling disease progression. In this article we use multiple imputation to fit multi-state models for survival data with interval censoring and left truncation. This approach allows semi-Markov models in which survival after dementia depends on onset age. Such models can be used to estimate the cumulative risk of developing dementia in the presence of the competing risk of dementia-free death. Simulations are carried out to examine the performance of the proposed method. Data from the Honolulu Asia Aging Study are analyzed to estimate the age-specific and cumulative risks of dementia and to examine the effect of major risk factors on dementia onset and death.

  14. Multiple sclerosis decreases explicit counterfactual processing and risk taking in decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simioni, Samanta; Schluep, Myriam; Bault, Nadège; Coricelli, Giorgio; Kleeberg, Joerg; Du Pasquier, Renaud A; Gschwind, Markus; Vuilleumier, Patrik; Annoni, Jean-Marie

    2012-01-01

    Deficits in decision making (DM) are commonly associated with prefrontal cortical damage, but may occur with multiple sclerosis (MS). There are no data concerning the impact of MS on tasks evaluating DM under explicit risk, where different emotional and cognitive components can be distinguished. We assessed 72 relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients with mild to moderate disease and 38 healthy controls in two DM tasks involving risk with explicit rules: (1) The Wheel of Fortune (WOF), which probes the anticipated affects of decisions outcomes on future choices; and (2) The Cambridge Gamble Task (CGT) which measures risk taking. Participants also underwent a neuropsychological and emotional assessment, and skin conductance responses (SCRs) were recorded. In the WOF, RRMS patients showed deficits in integrating positive counterfactual information (paffect than controls (disappointment: p = 0.007; regret: p = 0.01), although their implicit emotional reactions as measured by post-choice SCRs did not differ. In the CGT, RRMS patients differed from controls in quality of DM (p = 0.01) and deliberation time (p = 0.0002), the latter difference being correlated with attention scores. Such changes did not result in overall decreases in performance (total gains). The quality of DM under risk was modified by MS in both tasks. The reduction in the expression of disappointment coexisted with an increased risk aversion in the WOF and alexithymia features. These concomitant emotional alterations may have implications for better understanding the components of explicit DM and for the clinical support of MS patients.

  15. Assessing Risks to Wildlife Populations from Multiple Stressors: Overview of the Problem and Research Needs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wayne R. Munns, Jr.

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Wildlife populations are experiencing increasing pressure from human-induced changes in the landscape. Stressors including agricultural and urban land use, introduced invasive and exotic species, nutrient enrichment, direct human disturbance, and toxic chemicals directly or indirectly influence the quality and quantity of habitat used by terrestrial and aquatic wildlife. Governmental agencies such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency are required to assess risks to wildlife populations, in its broadest definition, that result from exposure to these stressors, yet considerable uncertainty exists with respect to how such assessments should be conducted. This uncertainty is compounded by questions concerning the interactive effects of co-occurring stressors, appropriate spatial scales of analysis, extrapolation of response data among species and from organisms to populations, and imperfect knowledge and use of limited data sets. Further, different risk problems require varying degrees of sophistication, methodological refinement, and data quality. These issues suggest a number of research needs to improve methods for wildlife risk assessments, including continued development of population dynamics models to evaluate the effects of multiple stressors at varying spatial scales, methods for extrapolating across endpoints and species with reasonable confidence, stressor-response relations and methods for combining them in predictive and diagnostic assessments, and accessible data sets describing the ecology of terrestrial and aquatic species. Case study application of models and methods for assessing wildlife risk will help to demonstrate their strengths and limitations for solving particular risk problems.

  16. Area-based assessment of extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hei, Fangliang

    2012-05-01

    Underpinning the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is the assessment of extinction risk as determined by the size and degree of loss of populations. The IUCN system lists a species as Critically Endangered, Endangered, or Vulnerable if its population size declines 80%, 50%, or 30% within a given time frame. However, effective implementation of the system faces substantial challenges and uncertainty because geographic scale data on population size and long-term dynamics are scarce. I develop a model to quantify extinction risk using a measure based on a species' distribution, a much more readily obtained quantity. The model calculates the loss of the area of occupancy that is equivalent to the loss of a given proportion of a population. It is a very simple yet general model that has no free parameters and is independent of scale. The model predicted well the distributions of 302 tree species at a local scale and the distributions of 348 species of North American land birds. This area-based model provides a solution to the long-standing problem for IUCN assessments of lack of data on population sizes, and thus it will contribute to facilitating the quantification of extinction risk worldwide.

  17. Efficacy of a brief image-based multiple-behavior intervention for college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werch, Chudley E; Moore, Michele J; Bian, Hui; DiClemente, Carlo C; Ames, Steven C; Weiler, Robert M; Thombs, Dennis; Pokorny, Steven B; Huang, I-Chan

    2008-10-01

    Epidemiologic data indicate most adolescents and adults experience multiple, simultaneous risk behaviors. The purpose of this study is to examine the efficacy of a brief image-based multiple-behavior intervention (MBI) for college students. A total of 303 college students were randomly assigned to: (1) a brief MBI or (2) a standard care control, with a 3-month postintervention follow-up. Omnibus treatment by time multivariate analysis of variance interactions were significant for three of six behavior groupings, with improvements for college students receiving the brief MBI on alcohol consumption behaviors, F(6, 261) = 2.73, p = 0.01, marijuana-use behaviors, F(4, 278) = 3.18, p = 0.01, and health-related quality of life, F(5, 277) = 2.80, p = 0.02, but not cigarette use, exercise, and nutrition behaviors. Participants receiving the brief MBI also got more sleep, F(1, 281) = 9.49, p = 0.00, than those in the standard care control. A brief image-based multiple-behavior intervention may be useful in influencing a number of critical health habits and health-related quality-of-life indicators of college students.

  18. Genetic risk and a primary role for cell-mediated immune mechanisms in multiple sclerosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawcer, Stephen; Hellenthal, Garrett; Pirinen, Matti; Spencer, Chris C.A.; Patsopoulos, Nikolaos A.; Moutsianas, Loukas; Dilthey, Alexander; Su, Zhan; Freeman, Colin; Hunt, Sarah E.; Edkins, Sarah; Gray, Emma; Booth, David R.; Potter, Simon C.; Goris, An; Band, Gavin; Oturai, Annette Bang; Strange, Amy; Saarela, Janna; Bellenguez, Céline; Fontaine, Bertrand; Gillman, Matthew; Hemmer, Bernhard; Gwilliam, Rhian; Zipp, Frauke; Jayakumar, Alagurevathi; Martin, Roland; Leslie, Stephen; Hawkins, Stanley; Giannoulatou, Eleni; D’alfonso, Sandra; Blackburn, Hannah; Boneschi, Filippo Martinelli; Liddle, Jennifer; Harbo, Hanne F.; Perez, Marc L.; Spurkland, Anne; Waller, Matthew J; Mycko, Marcin P.; Ricketts, Michelle; Comabella, Manuel; Hammond, Naomi; Kockum, Ingrid; McCann, Owen T.; Ban, Maria; Whittaker, Pamela; Kemppinen, Anu; Weston, Paul; Hawkins, Clive; Widaa, Sara; Zajicek, John; Dronov, Serge; Robertson, Neil; Bumpstead, Suzannah J.; Barcellos, Lisa F.; Ravindrarajah, Rathi; Abraham, Roby; Alfredsson, Lars; Ardlie, Kristin; Aubin, Cristin; Baker, Amie; Baker, Katharine; Baranzini, Sergio E.; Bergamaschi, Laura; Bergamaschi, Roberto; Bernstein, Allan; Berthele, Achim; Boggild, Mike; Bradfield, Jonathan P.; Brassat, David; Broadley, Simon A.; Buck, Dorothea; Butzkueven, Helmut; Capra, Ruggero; Carroll, William M.; Cavalla, Paola; Celius, Elisabeth G.; Cepok, Sabine; Chiavacci, Rosetta; Clerget-Darpoux, Françoise; Clysters, Katleen; Comi, Giancarlo; Cossburn, Mark; Cournu-Rebeix, Isabelle; Cox, Mathew B.; Cozen, Wendy; Cree, Bruce A.C.; Cross, Anne H.; Cusi, Daniele; Daly, Mark J.; Davis, Emma; de Bakker, Paul I.W.; Debouverie, Marc; D’hooghe, Marie Beatrice; Dixon, Katherine; Dobosi, Rita; Dubois, Bénédicte; Ellinghaus, David; Elovaara, Irina; Esposito, Federica; Fontenille, Claire; Foote, Simon; Franke, Andre; Galimberti, Daniela; Ghezzi, Angelo; Glessner, Joseph; Gomez, Refujia; Gout, Olivier; Graham, Colin; Grant, Struan F.A.; Guerini, Franca Rosa; Hakonarson, Hakon; Hall, Per; Hamsten, Anders; Hartung, Hans-Peter; Heard, Rob N.; Heath, Simon; Hobart, Jeremy; Hoshi, Muna; Infante-Duarte, Carmen; Ingram, Gillian; Ingram, Wendy; Islam, Talat; Jagodic, Maja; Kabesch, Michael; Kermode, Allan G.; Kilpatrick, Trevor J.; Kim, Cecilia; Klopp, Norman; Koivisto, Keijo; Larsson, Malin; Lathrop, Mark; Lechner-Scott, Jeannette S.; Leone, Maurizio A.; Leppä, Virpi; Liljedahl, Ulrika; Bomfim, Izaura Lima; Lincoln, Robin R.; Link, Jenny; Liu, Jianjun; Lorentzen, Åslaug R.; Lupoli, Sara; Macciardi, Fabio; Mack, Thomas; Marriott, Mark; Martinelli, Vittorio; Mason, Deborah; McCauley, Jacob L.; Mentch, Frank; Mero, Inger-Lise; Mihalova, Tania; Montalban, Xavier; Mottershead, John; Myhr, Kjell-Morten; Naldi, Paola; Ollier, William; Page, Alison; Palotie, Aarno; Pelletier, Jean; Piccio, Laura; Pickersgill, Trevor; Piehl, Fredrik; Pobywajlo, Susan; Quach, Hong L.; Ramsay, Patricia P.; Reunanen, Mauri; Reynolds, Richard; Rioux, John D.; Rodegher, Mariaemma; Roesner, Sabine; Rubio, Justin P.; Rückert, Ina-Maria; Salvetti, Marco; Salvi, Erika; Santaniello, Adam; Schaefer, Catherine A.; Schreiber, Stefan; Schulze, Christian; Scott, Rodney J.; Sellebjerg, Finn; Selmaj, Krzysztof W.; Sexton, David; Shen, Ling; Simms-Acuna, Brigid; Skidmore, Sheila; Sleiman, Patrick M.A.; Smestad, Cathrine; Sørensen, Per Soelberg; Søndergaard, Helle Bach; Stankovich, Jim; Strange, Richard C.; Sulonen, Anna-Maija; Sundqvist, Emilie; Syvänen, Ann-Christine; Taddeo, Francesca; Taylor, Bruce; Blackwell, Jenefer M.; Tienari, Pentti; Bramon, Elvira; Tourbah, Ayman; Brown, Matthew A.; Tronczynska, Ewa; Casas, Juan P.; Tubridy, Niall; Corvin, Aiden; Vickery, Jane; Jankowski, Janusz; Villoslada, Pablo; Markus, Hugh S.; Wang, Kai; Mathew, Christopher G.; Wason, James; Palmer, Colin N.A.; Wichmann, H-Erich; Plomin, Robert; Willoughby, Ernest; Rautanen, Anna; Winkelmann, Juliane; Wittig, Michael; Trembath, Richard C.; Yaouanq, Jacqueline; Viswanathan, Ananth C.; Zhang, Haitao; Wood, Nicholas W.; Zuvich, Rebecca; Deloukas, Panos; Langford, Cordelia; Duncanson, Audrey; Oksenberg, Jorge R.; Pericak-Vance, Margaret A.; Haines, Jonathan L.; Olsson, Tomas; Hillert, Jan; Ivinson, Adrian J.; De Jager, Philip L.; Peltonen, Leena; Stewart, Graeme J.; Hafler, David A.; Hauser, Stephen L.; McVean, Gil; Donnelly, Peter; Compston, Alastair

    2011-01-01

    Multiple sclerosis (OMIM 126200) is a common disease of the central nervous system in which the interplay between inflammatory and neurodegenerative processes typically results in intermittent neurological disturbance followed by progressive accumulation of disability.1 Epidemiological studies have shown that genetic factors are primarily responsible for the substantially increased frequency of the disease seen in the relatives of affected individuals;2,3 and systematic attempts to identify linkage in multiplex families have confirmed that variation within the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) exerts the greatest individual effect on risk.4 Modestly powered Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS)5-10 have enabled more than 20 additional risk loci to be identified and have shown that multiple variants exerting modest individual effects play a key role in disease susceptibility.11 Most of the genetic architecture underlying susceptibility to the disease remains to be defined and is anticipated to require the analysis of sample sizes that are beyond the numbers currently available to individual research groups. In a collaborative GWAS involving 9772 cases of European descent collected by 23 research groups working in 15 different countries, we have replicated almost all of the previously suggested associations and identified at least a further 29 novel susceptibility loci. Within the MHC we have refined the identity of the DRB1 risk alleles and confirmed that variation in the HLA-A gene underlies the independent protective effect attributable to the Class I region. Immunologically relevant genes are significantly over-represented amongst those mapping close to the identified loci and particularly implicate T helper cell differentiation in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis. PMID:21833088

  19. Risk-based emergency decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koerte, Jens

    2003-01-01

    In the present paper we discuss how to assist critical decisions taken under complex, contingent circumstances, with a high degree of uncertainty and short time frames. In such sharp-end decision regimes, standard rule-based decision support systems do not capture the complexity of the situation. At the same time, traditional risk analysis is of little use due to variability in the specific circumstances. How then, can an organisation provide assistance to, e.g. pilots in dealing with such emergencies? A method called 'contingent risk and decision analysis' is presented, to provide decision support for decisions under variable circumstances and short available time scales. The method consists of nine steps of definition, modelling, analysis and criteria definition to be performed 'off-line' by analysts, and procedure generation to transform the analysis result into an operational decision aid. Examples of pilots' decisions in response to sudden vibration in offshore helicopter transport method are used to illustrate the approach

  20. Multiple energy supply risks, optimal reserves, and optimal domestic production capacities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zweifel, P.; Ferrari, M.

    1992-01-01

    This study starts from the observation that today's Western trading nations are exposed to multiple risks of energy supplies, e.g. simultaneous shortage of oil and electricity supplies. To cope with these risks, oil can be stockpiled as well as domestic capacity for power production built up. Adopting the viewpoint of a policy maker who aims at minimizing the expected cost of security of supply, optimal simultaneous adjustments of oil stocks and electric production capacities to exogenous changes such as economic growth are derived. Against this benchmark, one-dimensional rules such as 'oil reserves for 90 days' turn out to be not only suboptimal but also to foster adjustments that exacerbate suboptimality. 9 refs., 1 tabs

  1. TNF receptor 1 genetic risk mirrors outcome of anti-TNF therapy in multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregory, Adam P; Dendrou, Calliope A; Attfield, Kathrine E

    2012-01-01

    ), but not with other autoimmune conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis and Crohn’s disease. By analysing MS GWAS data in conjunction with the 1000 Genomes Project data we provide genetic evidence that strongly implicates this SNP, rs1800693, as the causal variant in the TNFRSF1A region. We further...... make to disease risk has raised questions regarding their medical relevance. Here we have investigated a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the TNFRSF1A gene, that encodes tumour necrosis factor receptor 1 (TNFR1), which was discovered through GWAS to be associated with multiple sclerosis (MS...... substantiate this through functional studies showing that the MS risk allele directs expression of a novel, soluble form of TNFR1 that can block TNF. Importantly, TNF-blocking drugs can promote onset or exacerbation of MS, but they have proven highly efficacious in the treatment of autoimmune diseases...

  2. Periprosthetic joint infection: are patients with multiple prosthetic joints at risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jafari, S Mehdi; Casper, David S; Restrepo, Camilo; Zmistowski, Benjamin; Parvizi, Javad; Sharkey, Peter F

    2012-06-01

    Patients who present with a periprosthetic joint infection in a single joint may have multiple prosthetic joints. The risk of these patients developing a subsequent infection in another prosthetic joint is unknown. Our purposes were (1) to identify the risk of developing a subsequent infection in another prosthetic joint and (2) to describe the time span and organism profile to the second prosthetic infection. We retrospectively identified 55 patients with periprosthetic joint infection who had another prosthetic joint in place at the time of presentation. Of the 55 patients, 11 (20%) developed a periprosthetic joint infection in a second joint. The type of organism was the same as the first infection in 4 (36%) of 11 patients. The time to developing a second infection averaged 2.0 years (range, 0-6.9 years). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Multiple health behavior change in adults with or at risk for cancer: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Amanda C; Hayman, Laura L; Cooley, Mary E

    2015-05-01

    To identify components of efficacious interventions for multiple health behavior change (MHBC) in adult cancer survivors or adults at high risk for cancer. A systematic review of MHBC interventions was conducted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses framework. Ten studies met inclusion criteria. Most studies changed at least 2 health behaviors. Diet, exercise, and smoking cessation were consistently changed with in-person interventions. Longer duration interventions using phone or mail contact had a positive association with changing diet and exercise. MHBC interventions positively influenced behavior change in adults with cancer and those at high risk for cancer. Future studies should focus on increasing dissemination and implementation of efficacious interventions.

  4. Connection-based and object-based grouping in multiple-object tracking: A developmental study

    OpenAIRE

    Hallen, Ruth; Reusens, J. (Julie); Evers, K. (Kris); de-Wit, Lee; Wagemans, Johan

    2018-01-01

    textabstractDevelopmental research on Gestalt laws has previously revealed that, even as young as infancy, we are bound to group visual elements into unitary structures in accordance with a variety of organizational principles. Here, we focus on the developmental trajectory of both connection-based and object-based grouping, and investigate their impact on object formation in participants, aged 9-21 years old (N = 113), using a multiple-object tracking paradigm. Results reveal a main effect o...

  5. High-risk and multiple human papillomavirus infections among married women in Can Tho, Viet Nam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vu, Lan Thi Hoang

    2012-07-01

    The two currently licensed human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are highly efficacious in preventing cervical pre-cancers related to HPV 6, 11, 16 and 18. Before implementing a large-scale HPV vaccine campaign in Viet Nam, information about the prevalence of infection with the HPV vaccine types is required. This study was done in Can Tho, the province with the highest prevalence of cervical cancer in the south of Viet Nam, to explore the distribution of other high-risk types of HPV among married women in this province. The study employed a cross-sectional design with multistage sampling. A total of 1000 participants were randomly selected, interviewed and given gynaecological examinations. HPV infection status and HPV genotyping test were completed for all participants. A broad spectrum of HPV types was reported in this study. The prevalence of cases infected with HPV 16 and/or 18 was 7%; the prevalence of cases infected with other high-risk HPV types was 6%. The highest prevalence for single and multiple infections, as well as for high-risk infections, was reported for the youngest age group (less than 30 years). While it is relevant to implement an HPV vaccine campaign in Viet Nam due to the high prevalence of infection with HPV 16 and/or 18, it is important to note that one can be infected with multiple types of HPV. Vaccination does not protect against all types of high-risk HPV. Future vaccine campaigns should openly disclose this information to women receiving vaccines.

  6. Combined adaptive multiple subtraction based on optimized event tracing and extended wiener filtering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Jun; Song, Peng; Li, Jinshan; Wang, Lei; Zhong, Mengxuan; Zhang, Xiaobo

    2017-06-01

    The surface-related multiple elimination (SRME) method is based on feedback formulation and has become one of the most preferred multiple suppression methods used. However, some differences are apparent between the predicted multiples and those in the source seismic records, which may result in conventional adaptive multiple subtraction methods being barely able to effectively suppress multiples in actual production. This paper introduces a combined adaptive multiple attenuation method based on the optimized event tracing technique and extended Wiener filtering. The method firstly uses multiple records predicted by SRME to generate a multiple velocity spectrum, then separates the original record to an approximate primary record and an approximate multiple record by applying the optimized event tracing method and short-time window FK filtering method. After applying the extended Wiener filtering method, residual multiples in the approximate primary record can then be eliminated and the damaged primary can be restored from the approximate multiple record. This method combines the advantages of multiple elimination based on the optimized event tracing method and the extended Wiener filtering technique. It is an ideal method for suppressing typical hyperbolic and other types of multiples, with the advantage of minimizing damage of the primary. Synthetic and field data tests show that this method produces better multiple elimination results than the traditional multi-channel Wiener filter method and is more suitable for multiple elimination in complicated geological areas.

  7. Regularization of positive definite matrix fields based on multiplicative calculus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Florack, L.M.J.; Bruckstein, A.M.; Haar Romeny, ter B.M.; Bronstein, A.M.; Bronstein, M.M.

    2012-01-01

    Multiplicative calculus provides a natural framework in problems involving positive images and positivity preserving operators. In increasingly important, complex imaging frameworks, such as diffusion tensor imaging, it complements standard calculus in a nontrivial way. The purpose of this article

  8. Identifying multiple influential spreaders based on generalized closeness centrality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Huan-Li; Ma, Chuang; Xiang, Bing-Bing; Tang, Ming; Zhang, Hai-Feng

    2018-02-01

    To maximize the spreading influence of multiple spreaders in complex networks, one important fact cannot be ignored: the multiple spreaders should be dispersively distributed in networks, which can effectively reduce the redundance of information spreading. For this purpose, we define a generalized closeness centrality (GCC) index by generalizing the closeness centrality index to a set of nodes. The problem converts to how to identify multiple spreaders such that an objective function has the minimal value. By comparing with the K-means clustering algorithm, we find that the optimization problem is very similar to the problem of minimizing the objective function in the K-means method. Therefore, how to find multiple nodes with the highest GCC value can be approximately solved by the K-means method. Two typical transmission dynamics-epidemic spreading process and rumor spreading process are implemented in real networks to verify the good performance of our proposed method.

  9. Multiple sclerosis, brain radiotherapy, and risk of neurotoxicity: The Mayo Clinic experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, Robert C.; Lachance, Daniel H.; Lucchinetti, Claudia F.; Keegan, B. Mark; Gavrilova, Ralitza H.; Brown, Paul D.; Weinshenker, Brian G.; Rodriguez, Moses

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this study was a retrospective assessment of neurotoxicity in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) receiving external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) to the brain. Methods and Materials: We studied 15 consecutively treated patients with MS who received brain EBRT. Neurologic toxicity was assessed with the Common Toxicity Criteria v.3.0. Results: Median follow-up for the 5 living patients was 6.0 years (range, 3.3-27.4 years). No exacerbation of MS occurred in any patient during EBRT. Five patients had Grade 4 neurologic toxicity and 1 had possible Grade 5 toxicity. Kaplan-Meier estimated risk of neurotoxicity greater than Grade 4 at 5 years was 57% (95% confidence interval, 27%-82%). Toxicity occurred at 37.5 to 54.0 Gy at a median of 1.0 year (range, 0.2-4.3 years) after EBRT. Univariate analysis showed an association between opposed-field irradiation of the temporal lobes, central white matter, and brainstem and increased risk of neurotoxicity (p < 0.04). Three of 6 cases of toxicity occurred in patients treated before 1986. Conclusions: External beam radiotherapy of the brain in patients with MS may be associated with an increased risk of neurotoxicity compared with patients without demyelinating illnesses. However, this risk is associated with treatment techniques that may not be comparable to modern, conformal radiotherapy

  10. Multiple regression as a preventive tool for determining the risk of Legionella spp.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Gea-Izquierdo

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available To determine the interrelationship between health & hygiene conditions for prevention of legionellosis, the compositionof materials used in water distribution systems, the water origin and Legionella pneumophila risk. Material and methods. Include adescriptive study and multiple regression analysis on a sample of golf course sprinkler irrigation systems (n=31 pertaining to hotelslocated on the Costa del Sol (Malaga, Spain. The study was carried out in 2009. Results. Presented a significant lineal relation, withall the independent variables contributing significantly (p<0.05 to the model’s fit. The relationship between water type and the risk ofLegionella, as well as the material composition and the latter, is lineal and positive. In contrast, the relationship between health-hygieneconditions and Legionella risk is lineal and negative. Conclusion. The characterization of Legionella pneumophila concentration, asdefined by the risk in water and through use of the predictive method, can contribute to the consideration of new influence variables inthe development of the agent, resulting in improved control and prevention of the disease.

  11. Novel pedigree analysis implicates DNA repair and chromatin remodeling in multiple myeloma risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waller, Rosalie G; Darlington, Todd M; Wei, Xiaomu; Madsen, Michael J; Thomas, Alun; Curtin, Karen; Coon, Hilary; Rajamanickam, Venkatesh; Musinsky, Justin; Jayabalan, David; Atanackovic, Djordje; Rajkumar, S Vincent; Kumar, Shaji; Slager, Susan; Middha, Mridu; Galia, Perrine; Demangel, Delphine; Salama, Mohamed; Joseph, Vijai; McKay, James; Offit, Kenneth; Klein, Robert J; Lipkin, Steven M; Dumontet, Charles; Vachon, Celine M; Camp, Nicola J

    2018-02-01

    The high-risk pedigree (HRP) design is an established strategy to discover rare, highly-penetrant, Mendelian-like causal variants. Its success, however, in complex traits has been modest, largely due to challenges of genetic heterogeneity and complex inheritance models. We describe a HRP strategy that addresses intra-familial heterogeneity, and identifies inherited segments important for mapping regulatory risk. We apply this new Shared Genomic Segment (SGS) method in 11 extended, Utah, multiple myeloma (MM) HRPs, and subsequent exome sequencing in SGS regions of interest in 1063 MM / MGUS (monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance-a precursor to MM) cases and 964 controls from a jointly-called collaborative resource, including cases from the initial 11 HRPs. One genome-wide significant 1.8 Mb shared segment was found at 6q16. Exome sequencing in this region revealed predicted deleterious variants in USP45 (p.Gln691* and p.Gln621Glu), a gene known to influence DNA repair through endonuclease regulation. Additionally, a 1.2 Mb segment at 1p36.11 is inherited in two Utah HRPs, with coding variants identified in ARID1A (p.Ser90Gly and p.Met890Val), a key gene in the SWI/SNF chromatin remodeling complex. Our results provide compelling statistical and genetic evidence for segregating risk variants for MM. In addition, we demonstrate a novel strategy to use large HRPs for risk-variant discovery more generally in complex traits.

  12. Novel pedigree analysis implicates DNA repair and chromatin remodeling in multiple myeloma risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosalie G Waller

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The high-risk pedigree (HRP design is an established strategy to discover rare, highly-penetrant, Mendelian-like causal variants. Its success, however, in complex traits has been modest, largely due to challenges of genetic heterogeneity and complex inheritance models. We describe a HRP strategy that addresses intra-familial heterogeneity, and identifies inherited segments important for mapping regulatory risk. We apply this new Shared Genomic Segment (SGS method in 11 extended, Utah, multiple myeloma (MM HRPs, and subsequent exome sequencing in SGS regions of interest in 1063 MM / MGUS (monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance-a precursor to MM cases and 964 controls from a jointly-called collaborative resource, including cases from the initial 11 HRPs. One genome-wide significant 1.8 Mb shared segment was found at 6q16. Exome sequencing in this region revealed predicted deleterious variants in USP45 (p.Gln691* and p.Gln621Glu, a gene known to influence DNA repair through endonuclease regulation. Additionally, a 1.2 Mb segment at 1p36.11 is inherited in two Utah HRPs, with coding variants identified in ARID1A (p.Ser90Gly and p.Met890Val, a key gene in the SWI/SNF chromatin remodeling complex. Our results provide compelling statistical and genetic evidence for segregating risk variants for MM. In addition, we demonstrate a novel strategy to use large HRPs for risk-variant discovery more generally in complex traits.

  13. Multiple sclerosis decreases explicit counterfactual processing and risk taking in decision making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samanta Simioni

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Deficits in decision making (DM are commonly associated with prefrontal cortical damage, but may occur with multiple sclerosis (MS. There are no data concerning the impact of MS on tasks evaluating DM under explicit risk, where different emotional and cognitive components can be distinguished. METHODS: We assessed 72 relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS patients with mild to moderate disease and 38 healthy controls in two DM tasks involving risk with explicit rules: (1 The Wheel of Fortune (WOF, which probes the anticipated affects of decisions outcomes on future choices; and (2 The Cambridge Gamble Task (CGT which measures risk taking. Participants also underwent a neuropsychological and emotional assessment, and skin conductance responses (SCRs were recorded. RESULTS: In the WOF, RRMS patients showed deficits in integrating positive counterfactual information (p<0.005 and greater risk aversion (p<0.001. They reported less negative affect than controls (disappointment: p = 0.007; regret: p = 0.01, although their implicit emotional reactions as measured by post-choice SCRs did not differ. In the CGT, RRMS patients differed from controls in quality of DM (p = 0.01 and deliberation time (p = 0.0002, the latter difference being correlated with attention scores. Such changes did not result in overall decreases in performance (total gains. CONCLUSIONS: The quality of DM under risk was modified by MS in both tasks. The reduction in the expression of disappointment coexisted with an increased risk aversion in the WOF and alexithymia features. These concomitant emotional alterations may have implications for better understanding the components of explicit DM and for the clinical support of MS patients.

  14. A Spatial Framework to Map Heat Health Risks at Multiple Scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Huang, Wei

    2015-12-18

    In the last few decades extreme heat events have led to substantial excess mortality, most dramatically in Central Europe in 2003, in Russia in 2010, and even in typically cool locations such as Vancouver, Canada, in 2009. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to increase over the coming centuries as the result of climate-driven global increases in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events. Spatial information on heat exposure and population vulnerability may be combined to map the areas of highest risk and focus mitigation efforts there. However, a mismatch in spatial resolution between heat exposure and vulnerability data can cause spatial scale issues such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). We used a raster-based model to integrate heat exposure and vulnerability data in a multi-criteria decision analysis, and compared it to the traditional vector-based model. We then used the Getis-Ord G(i) index to generate spatially smoothed heat risk hotspot maps from fine to coarse spatial scales. The raster-based model allowed production of maps at spatial resolution, more description of local-scale heat risk variability, and identification of heat-risk areas not identified with the vector-based approach. Spatial smoothing with the Getis-Ord G(i) index produced heat risk hotspots from local to regional spatial scale. The approach is a framework for reducing spatial scale issues in future heat risk mapping, and for identifying heat risk hotspots at spatial scales ranging from the block-level to the municipality level.

  15. Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robyn S. Wilson; Patricia L. Winter; Lynn A. Maguire; Timothy. Ascher

    2011-01-01

    Managing wildfire events to achieve multiple management objectives involves a high degree of decision complexity and uncertainty, increasing the likelihood that decisions will be informed by experience-based heuristics triggered by available cues at the time of the decision. The research reported here tests the prevalence of three risk-based biases among 206...

  16. The Research of Multiple Attenuation Based on Feedback Iteration and Independent Component Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, X.; Tong, S.; Wang, L.

    2017-12-01

    How to solve the problem of multiple suppression is a difficult problem in seismic data processing. The traditional technology for multiple attenuation is based on the principle of the minimum output energy of the seismic signal, this criterion is based on the second order statistics, and it can't achieve the multiple attenuation when the primaries and multiples are non-orthogonal. In order to solve the above problems, we combine the feedback iteration method based on the wave equation and the improved independent component analysis (ICA) based on high order statistics to suppress the multiple waves. We first use iterative feedback method to predict the free surface multiples of each order. Then, in order to predict multiples from real multiple in amplitude and phase, we design an expanded pseudo multi-channel matching filtering method to get a more accurate matching multiple result. Finally, we present the improved fast ICA algorithm which is based on the maximum non-Gauss criterion of output signal to the matching multiples and get better separation results of the primaries and the multiples. The advantage of our method is that we don't need any priori information to the prediction of the multiples, and can have a better separation result. The method has been applied to several synthetic data generated by finite-difference model technique and the Sigsbee2B model multiple data, the primaries and multiples are non-orthogonal in these models. The experiments show that after three to four iterations, we can get the perfect multiple results. Using our matching method and Fast ICA adaptive multiple subtraction, we can not only effectively preserve the effective wave energy in seismic records, but also can effectively suppress the free surface multiples, especially the multiples related to the middle and deep areas.

  17. Questionnaire-based risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakajo, Satoko; Ohi, Tadashi

    2004-01-01

    In order to reduce human errors efficiently, it is important to evaluate error-likely tasks and improve them. There are a lot of evaluation methods, for example, experimental evaluation methods, investigations by the expert of human factors, checking guidelines, estimating human error probabilities, and so on. There are roughly two problems in those methods. (1) Qualitative evaluation methods do not evaluate how likely human errors will occur and do not estimate how effective the countermeasure is in reducing human error. (2) Most of the quantitative evaluation methods and detailed analysis methods require expert's judgment. We developed a questionnaire-based risk assessment method and its system. In this paper, we introduce the concept of the method, realization, and applications to a maintenance procedure of a nuclear power plant and an elevator. The feature of the method is that it is so simple and the inexpert can easily evaluate the risk of human error. Furthermore, because it is provided as an application service provider system, a lot of evaluators can use it simultaneously through internet and it is easy to collect and sum up the responses. We confirmed that it is useful to evaluate the risk of human error, analyze the problem, and estimate the effectiveness of countermeasures in advance through the applications. (author)

  18. Contributions of vitamin D response elements and HLA promoters to multiple sclerosis risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, David; Castley, Alison; Tschochner, Monika; James, Ian; Qiu, Wei; Sayer, David; Christiansen, Frank T; Witt, Campbell; Mastaglia, Frank; Carroll, William; Kermode, Allan

    2012-08-07

    The identification of a vitamin D-responsive (VDRE) motif within the HLA-DRB1*15:01 promoter region provides an attractive explanation for the combined effects of HLA-DR inheritance and vitamin D exposure on multiple sclerosis (MS) risk. We therefore sought to incorporate HLA-DRB1 promoter variation, including the VDRE motif, in an assessment of HLA-DRB1-associated MS risk. We utilized 32 homozygous HLA cell lines (covering 17 DRB1 alleles) and 53 heterozygote MS samples (20 DRB1 alleles) for HLA-DRB1 promoter sequencing. The influence of HLA-DRB1 variation on MS risk was then assessed among 466 MS cases and 498 controls. The majority of HLA*DRB1 alleles (including HLA-DRB1*15:01) express the functional VDRE motif, apart from HLA-DRB1*04, *07, and *09 alleles that comprise the HLA-DR53 serologic group. Allele-specific variation within functional X-box and Y-box motifs was also associated with serologically defined HLA-DR haplotypes. Incorporating these results in an analysis of MS risk, we identified a strong protective effect of HLA-DRB1*04, *07, and *09 (DR53) alleles (p = 10(-12)) and elevated risk associated with DRB1*15 and *16 (DR51) and *08 (DR8) alleles (p < 10(-18)). HLA-DRB1 groups corresponding to serologic HLA-DR profiles as well as promoter polymorphism haplotypes effectively stratified MS risk over an 11-fold range, suggesting functional relationships between risk-modifying HLA-DRB1 alleles. An independent contribution of VDRE motif variation to increase MS risk was not discernible, although vitamin D-dependent regulation of HLA-DR expression may still play an important role given that HLA-DRB1*04/*07/*09 (DR53) alleles that express the "nonresponsive" VDRE motif were associated with significantly reduced risk of MS.

  19. Multiple lifestyle behaviours and mortality, findings from a large population-based Norwegian cohort study - The HUNT Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steinar Krokstad

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Lifestyle risk behaviours are responsible for a large proportion of disease burden and premature mortality worldwide. Risk behaviours tend to cluster in populations. We developed a new lifestyle risk index by including emerging risk factors (sleep, sitting time, and social participation and examine unique risk combinations and their associations with all-cause and cardio-metabolic mortality. Methods Data are from a large population-based cohort study in a Norway, the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT, with an average follow-up time of 14.1 years. Baseline data from 1995–97 were linked to the Norwegian Causes of Death Registry. The analytic sample comprised 36 911 adults aged 20–69 years. Cox regression models were first fitted for seven risk factors (poor diet, excessive alcohol consumption, current smoking, physical inactivity, excessive sitting, too much/too little sleep, and poor social participation separately and then adjusted for socio-demographic covariates. Based on these results, a lifestyle risk index was developed. Finally, we explored common combinations of the risk factors in relation to all-cause and cardio-metabolic mortality outcomes. Results All single risk factors, except for diet, were significantly associated with both mortality outcomes, and were therefore selected to form a lifestyle risk index. Risk of mortality increased as the index score increased. The hazard ratio for all-cause mortality increased from 1.37 (1.15-1.62 to 6.15 (3.56-10.63 as the number of index risk factors increased from one to six respectively. Among the most common risk factor combinations the association with mortality was particularly strong when smoking and/or social participation were included. Conclusions This study adds to previous research on multiple risk behaviours by incorporating emerging risk factors. Findings regarding social participation and prolonged sitting suggest new components of healthy lifestyles and

  20. When no choice of embryos exists, the multiple pregnancy risk is still high.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Wong, V V

    2012-10-01

    Multiple pregnancies arising from assisted reproduction are known to be associated with increased medical, psychological, economical and social risks. If only two embryos develop after culture, how should the couple be counselled in relation to the risk of multiple pregnancy? We performed a retrospective review of all IVF\\/ICSI treatments performed between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2007, that resulted in double embryos transfer (DET). We identified 623 cycles with a fortuitous DET (Group I) and 635 cycles with an elective DET (Group II). Group II were significantly more likely to have twins when compared with Group I, irrespective of age. Twin rates in Group I were higher in IVF compared with ICSI; 33.3% vs 16.6% in < 35 years old and 16.2% vs 7.6% in 35-40 years old. Therefore, single embryo transfer should be considered for IVF patients below 35 years old, even if only two good quality embryos are available.

  1. [Retinopathy of prematurity in multiple births: risk analysis for plus disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Serrano, J L; Ramírez-García, M C; Piñar-Molina, R

    2009-04-01

    To analyze the risk factors associated with plus disease in retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). Over a period of 8.5 years we carried out a prospective study of ROP in twins and triplets. Fifty-four multiple-birth infants with low birth weight (large area of avascular retina, low gestational age, low birth weight, a patent ductus arteriosus, length of mechanical ventilation, adverse events increase, low 5 min Apgar scores and poor postnatal weight gain (in the first 4 to 6 weeks of life). Using multiple logistic regression, only the grade of ROP (OR: 5.5; p disease gained an average 3.9 +/- 3.1 g/day in the first 6 weeks of life, compared to a mean of 11.84 +/- 8.3 g/day for those without plus disease (p < 0.0001). Advanced ROP stages and poor weight gain were the most significant factors associated with plus disease. Twins who gained weight at more than 7 g/day in the first 4-6 weeks of life had a significantly reduced risk of plus disease. A good weight gain is an effective strategy against avoidable blindness due to ROP.

  2. The Role of Environment and Lifestyle in Determining the Risk of Multiple Sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedström, Anna Karin; Olsson, Tomas; Alfredsson, Lars

    2015-01-01

    MS is a complex disease where both genetic and environmental factors contribute to disease susceptibility. The substantially increased risk of developing MS in relatives of affected individuals gives solid evidence for a genetic base for susceptibility, whereas the modest familial risk, most strikingly demonstrated in the twin studies, is a very strong argument for an important role of lifestyle/environmental factors in determining the risk of MS, sometimes interacting with MS risk genes. Lifestyle factors and environmental exposures are harder to accurately study and quantify than genetic factors. However, it is important to identify these factors since they, as opposed to risk genes, are potentially preventable. We have reviewed the evidence for environmental factors that have been repeatedly shown to influence the risk of MS: Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection, ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure habits /vitamin D status, and smoking. We have also reviewed a number of additional environmental factors, published in the past 5 years, that have been described to influence MS risk. Independent replication, preferably by a variety of methods, may give still more firm evidence for their involvement.

  3. Risk Factors for Pneumonia in Ventilated Trauma Patients with Multiple Rib Fractures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun Oh Park

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP is a common disease that may contribute to morbidity and mortality among trauma patients in the intensive care unit (ICU. This study evaluated the associations between trauma factors and the development of VAP in ventilated patients with multiple rib fractures. Methods: We retrospectively and consecutively evaluated 101 patients with multiple rib fractures who were ventilated and managed at our hospital between January 2010 and December 2015, analyzing the associations between VAP and trauma factors in these patients. Trauma factors included sternal fracture, flail chest, diaphragm injury, traumatic aortic dissection, combined cardiac injury, pulmonary contusion, pneumothorax, hemothorax, hemopneumothorax, abbreviated injury scale score, thoracic trauma severity score, and injury severity score. Results: Forty-six patients (45.5% had at least 1 episode of VAP, 10 (21.7% of whom died in the ICU. Of the 55 (54.5% patients who did not have pneumonia, 9 (16.4% died in the ICU. Using logistic regression analysis, we found that VAP was associated with severe lung contusion (odds ratio, 3.07; 95% confidence interval, 1.12 to 8.39; p=0.029. Conclusion: Severe pulmonary contusion (pulmonary lung contusion score 6–12 is an independent risk factor for VAP in ventilated trauma patients with multiple rib fractures.

  4. 12 CFR 932.3 - Risk-based capital requirement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... credit risk capital requirement, its market risk capital requirement, and its operations risk capital... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement. 932.3 Section 932.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND...

  5. Citation searching: a systematic review case study of multiple risk behaviour interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Kath; Golder, Su; Rodriguez-Lopez, Rocio

    2014-06-03

    The value of citation searches as part of the systematic review process is currently unknown. While the major guides to conducting systematic reviews state that citation searching should be carried out in addition to searching bibliographic databases there are still few studies in the literature that support this view. Rather than using a predefined search strategy to retrieve studies, citation searching uses known relevant papers to identify further papers. We describe a case study about the effectiveness of using the citation sources Google Scholar, Scopus, Web of Science and OVIDSP MEDLINE to identify records for inclusion in a systematic review.We used the 40 included studies identified by traditional database searches from one systematic review of interventions for multiple risk behaviours. We searched for each of the included studies in the four citation sources to retrieve the details of all papers that have cited these studies.We carried out two analyses; the first was to examine the overlap between the four citation sources to identify which citation tool was the most useful; the second was to investigate whether the citation searches identified any relevant records in addition to those retrieved by the original database searches. The highest number of citations was retrieved from Google Scholar (1680), followed by Scopus (1173), then Web of Science (1095) and lastly OVIDSP (213). To retrieve all the records identified by the citation tracking searching all four resources was required. Google Scholar identified the highest number of unique citations.The citation tracking identified 9 studies that met the review's inclusion criteria. Eight of these had already been identified by the traditional databases searches and identified in the screening process while the ninth was not available in any of the databases when the original searches were carried out. It would, however, have been identified by two of the database search strategies if searches had been

  6. Model-based mitigation of availability risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zambon, E.; Bolzoni, D.; Etalle, S.; Salvato, M.

    2007-01-01

    The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for risk assessment and mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due

  7. Model-Based Mitigation of Availability Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zambon, Emmanuele; Bolzoni, D.; Etalle, Sandro; Salvato, Marco

    2007-01-01

    The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for Risk Assessment and Mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due

  8. Gender-Based Violence Causing Severe Multiple Injuries; a Case Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adalard Falschung

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Gender-based violence (GBV against women has been identified as a global health and development issue. We reported a case of GBV causing sever, multiple injuries in a middle-aged female. Case report: A 47-year-old woman presented to emergency room with disturbed level of consciousness, shortness of breath and multiple patches of skin discoloration. On examination, the patient was semi-conscious, with multiple ecchymosis and bilateral decreased air entry. Computed tomography scan of the neck and chest showed six rib fractures on the left side, and eight rib fractures on the right side, sternal fracture, manubriosternal dislocation, bilateral hemothorax, fracture of body of eleventh thoracic vertebra, and fracture of cervical spine of fifth and seventh vertebrae. The patient was intubated and admitted to intensive care unit. She was discharged with good health condition after 23 days of hospital admission. Conclusion: GBV is still a cause of severe trauma that puts the patient’s life at risk.

  9. A global calibration method for multiple vision sensors based on multiple targets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Zhen; Zhang, Guangjun; Wei, Zhenzhong; Sun, Junhua

    2011-01-01

    The global calibration of multiple vision sensors (MVS) has been widely studied in the last two decades. In this paper, we present a global calibration method for MVS with non-overlapping fields of view (FOVs) using multiple targets (MT). MT is constructed by fixing several targets, called sub-targets, together. The mutual coordinate transformations between sub-targets need not be known. The main procedures of the proposed method are as follows: one vision sensor is selected from MVS to establish the global coordinate frame (GCF). MT is placed in front of the vision sensors for several (at least four) times. Using the constraint that the relative positions of all sub-targets are invariant, the transformation matrix from the coordinate frame of each vision sensor to GCF can be solved. Both synthetic and real experiments are carried out and good result is obtained. The proposed method has been applied to several real measurement systems and shown to be both flexible and accurate. It can serve as an attractive alternative to existing global calibration methods

  10. Multiple-predators-based capture process on complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharafat, Rajput Ramiz; Pu Cunlai; Li Jie; Chen Rongbin; Xu Zhongqi

    2017-01-01

    The predator/prey (capture) problem is a prototype of many network-related applications. We study the capture process on complex networks by considering multiple predators from multiple sources. In our model, some lions start from multiple sources simultaneously to capture the lamb by biased random walks, which are controlled with a free parameter α . We derive the distribution of the lamb’s lifetime and the expected lifetime 〈 T 〉. Through simulation, we find that the expected lifetime drops substantially with the increasing number of lions. Moreover, we study how the underlying topological structure affects the capture process, and obtain that locating on small-degree nodes is better than on large-degree nodes to prolong the lifetime of the lamb. The dense or homogeneous network structures are against the survival of the lamb. We also discuss how to improve the capture efficiency in our model. (paper)

  11. Areal and volumetric Bone Mineral Density and risk of multiple types of fracture in older men

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalhoub, Didier; Orwoll, Eric S.; Cawthon, Peggy M.; Ensrud, Kristine E.; Boudreau, Robert; Greenspan, Susan; Newman, Anne B.; Zmuda, Joseph; Bauer, Douglas; Cummings, Steven; Cauley, Jane A.

    2016-01-01

    Although many studies have examined the association between low bone mineral density (BMD) and fracture risk in older men, none have simultaneously studied the relationship between multiple BMD sites and risk of different types of fractures. Using data from the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men study, we evaluated the association between areal BMD (aBMD) by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and volumetric BMD (vBMD) by quantitative computed tomography (QCT) measurements, and different types of fractures during an average of 9.7 years of follow up. Men answered questionnaires about fractures every 4 months (>97% completions). Fractures were confirmed by centralized review of radiographic reports; pathological fractures were excluded. Risk of fractures was assessed at the hip, spine, wrist, shoulder, rib/chest/sternum, ankle/foot/toe, arm, hand/finger, leg, pelvis/coccyx, skull/face and any non-spine fracture. Age and race adjusted Cox proportional-hazards modeling was used to assess the risk of fracture in 3301 older men with both aBMD (at the femoral neck (FN) and lumbar spine) and vBMD (at the trabecular spine and FN, and cortical FN) measurements, with hazard ratios (HRs) expressed per standard deviation (SD) decrease. Lower FN and spine aBMD were associated with an increased risk of fracture at the hip, spine, wrist, shoulder, rib/chest/sternum, arm, and any non-spine fracture (statistically significant HRs per SD decrease ranged from 1.24 - 3.57). Lower trabecular spine and FN vBMD were associated with increased risk of most fractures with statistically significant HRs ranging between 1.27 and 3.69. There was a statistically significant association between FN cortical vBMD and fracture risk at the hip (HR=1.55) and spine sites (HR=1.26), but no association at other fracture sites. In summary, both lower aBMD and vBMD were associated with increased fracture risk. The stronger associations observed for trabecular vBMD than cortical vBMD may reflect the greater

  12. Risk-benefit considerations in the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lugaresi A

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Alessandra Lugaresi,1 Maria di Ioia,1 Daniela Travaglini,1 Erika Pietrolongo,1 Eugenio Pucci,2 Marco Onofrj11Department of Neuroscience and Imaging, University “G d’Annunzio”, Chieti, 2Operative Unit Neurologia ASUR Marche Area Vasta 3, Macerata, ItalyAbstract: Multiple sclerosis (MS is a chronic demyelinating disease of the central nervous system and mainly affects young adults. Its natural history has changed in recent years with the advent of disease-modifying drugs, which have been available since the early 1990s. The increasing number of first-line and second-line treatment options, together with the variable course of the disease and patient lifestyles and expectations, makes the therapeutic decision a real challenge. The aim of this review is to give a comprehensive overview of the main present and some future drugs for relapsing-remitting MS, including risk-benefit considerations, to enable readers to draw their own conclusions regarding the risk-benefit assessment of personalized treatment strategies, taking into account not only treatment-related but also disease-related risks. We performed a Medline literature search to identify studies on the treatment of MS with risk stratification and risk-benefit considerations. We focused our attention on studies of disease-modifying, immunomodulating, and immunosuppressive drugs, including monoclonal antibodies. Here we offer personal considerations, stemming from long-term experience in the treatment of MS and thorough discussions with other neurologists closely involved in the care of patients with the disease. MS specialists need to know not only the specific risks and benefits of single drugs, but also about drug interactions, either in simultaneous or serial combination therapy, and patient comorbidities, preferences, and fears. This has to be put into perspective, considering also the risks of untreated disease in patients with different clinical and radiological characteristics

  13. Multiplicity and early gestational age contribute to an increased risk of cerebral palsy from assisted conception

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvidtjørn, Dorte; Grove, Jakob; Schendel, Diana

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: This paper assesses the risk of cerebral palsy (CP) in children born after assisted conception compared with children born after natural conception (NC). METHODS: This population based follow-up study included all 588,967 children born in Denmark from 1995 to 2003. Assisted conception...

  14. No association between dietary sodium intake and the risk of multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortese, Marianna; Yuan, Changzheng; Chitnis, Tanuja; Ascherio, Alberto; Munger, Kassandra L

    2017-09-26

    To prospectively investigate the association between dietary sodium intake and multiple sclerosis (MS) risk. In this cohort study, we assessed dietary sodium intake by a validated food frequency questionnaire administered every 4 years to 80,920 nurses in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) (1984-2002) and to 94,511 in the Nurses' Health Study II (NHSII) (1991-2007), and calibrated it using data from a validation study. There were 479 new MS cases during follow-up. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the effect of energy-adjusted dietary sodium on MS risk, adjusting also for age, latitude of residence at age 15, ancestry, body mass index at age 18, supplemental vitamin D intake, cigarette smoking, and total energy intake in each cohort. The results in both cohorts were pooled using fixed effects models. Total dietary intake of sodium at baseline was not associated with MS risk (highest [medians: 3.2 g/d NHS; 3.5 g/d NHSII] vs lowest [medians: 2.5 g/d NHS; 2.8 g/d NHSII] quintile: HR pooled 0.98, 95% CI 0.74-1.30, p for trend = 0.75). Cumulative average sodium intake during follow-up was also not associated with MS risk (highest [medians: 3.3 g/d NHS; 3.4 g/d NHSII] vs lowest [medians: 2.7 g/d NHS; 2.8 g/d NHSII] quintile: HR pooled 1.02, 95% CI 0.76-1.37, p for trend = 0.76). Comparing more extreme sodium intake in deciles yielded similar results ( p for trend = 0.95). Our findings suggest that higher dietary sodium intake does not increase the risk of developing MS. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

  15. Local scale multiple quantitative risk assessment and uncertainty evaluation in a densely urbanised area (Brescia, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Lari

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The study of the interactions between natural and anthropogenic risks is necessary for quantitative risk assessment in areas affected by active natural processes, high population density and strong economic activities.

    We present a multiple quantitative risk assessment on a 420 km2 high risk area (Brescia and surroundings, Lombardy, Northern Italy, for flood, seismic and industrial accident scenarios. Expected economic annual losses are quantified for each scenario and annual exceedance probability-loss curves are calculated. Uncertainty on the input variables is propagated by means of three different methodologies: Monte-Carlo-Simulation, First Order Second Moment, and point estimate.

    Expected losses calculated by means of the three approaches show similar values for the whole study area, about 64 000 000 € for earthquakes, about 10 000 000 € for floods, and about 3000 € for industrial accidents. Locally, expected losses assume quite different values if calculated with the three different approaches, with differences up to 19%.

    The uncertainties on the expected losses and their propagation, performed with the three methods, are compared and discussed in the paper. In some cases, uncertainty reaches significant values (up to almost 50% of the expected loss. This underlines the necessity of including uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment, especially when it is used as a support for territorial planning and decision making. The method is developed thinking at a possible application at a regional-national scale, on the basis of data available in Italy over the national territory.

  16. Multiple local minima in IMRT optimization based on dose-volume criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Qiuwen; Mohan, Radhe

    2002-01-01

    Multiple local minima traps are known to exist in dose-volume and dose-response objective functions. Nevertheless, their presence and consequences are not considered impediments in finding satisfactory solutions in routine optimization of IMRT plans using gradient methods. However, there is often a concern that a significantly superior solution may exist unbeknownst to the planner and that the optimization process may not be able to reach it. We have investigated the soundness of the assumption that the presence of multiple minima traps can be ignored. To find local minima, we start the optimization process a large number of times with random initial intensities. We investigated whether the occurrence of local minima depends upon the choice of the objective function parameters and the number of variables and whether their existence is an impediment in finding a satisfactory solution. To learn about the behavior of multiple minima, we first used a symmetric cubic phantom containing a cubic target and an organ-at-risk surrounding it to optimize the beam weights of two pairs of parallel-opposed beams using a gradient technique. The phantom studies also served to test our software. Objective function parameters were chosen to ensure that multiple minima would exist. Data for 500 plans, optimized with random initial beam weights, were analyzed. The search process did succeed in finding the local minima and showed that the number of minima depends on the parameters of the objective functions. It was also found that the consequences of local minima depended on the number of beams. We further searched for the multiple minima in intensity-modulated treatment plans for a head-and-neck case and a lung case. In addition to the treatment plan scores and the dose-volume histograms, we examined the dose distributions and intensity patterns. We did not find any evidence that multiple local minima affect the outcome of optimization using gradient techniques in any clinically

  17. Serum Parathyroid Hormone Is a New Potential Risk Factor in Multiple Myeloma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min-Gu Kang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We hypothesized that serum PTH might be associated with various clinicopathological parameters in multiple myeloma (MM. So we investigated the implications of serum PTH in MM patients and the relationship with other risk factors of MM. A total of 115 patients who were newly diagnosed with MM were enrolled. Serum PTH level was 24.7 ± 34.9 (ranged 0.0–284.1 pg/mL. Serum levels of IgG, IgM, FLC-lambda, albumin, and LDH were in positive correlation with serum PTH. Compared to non-high PTH (<68.3 pg/mL group, the hazard ratio (HR for overall survival was higher for group with high PTH level (≥68.3 pg/mL (HR, 1.710. Furthermore, the patient group with high PTH level showed inferior progression-free survival than non-high PTH group (P=0.056. Interestingly, subgroup analysis showed that serum PTH level at diagnosis was associated with risk factors and clinical outcome in MM patients, especially in complete remission group, transplantation cases, ISS stage II cases, and cases without chromosome abnormality. In conclusion, this study showed that blood PTH level in MM at diagnosis was associated with risk factors and clinical outcome in MM patients.

  18. Multiple traumatisation as a risk factor of post-traumatic stress disorder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Savjak Nadežda

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Paper presents a part of results obtained in 1998 within action study of the psychological effects of war traumatisation in Republika Srpska. Special attention is paid to the additional impact of multiple exposure to war sufferings regarding the degree of the traumatisation (the loss of loved ones, direct life threat, the participation in combats, and the testimony of the death of other people. 229 persons were assessed in 8 towns of Republika Srpska. The comparison of the results of refugees and domicile persons at the Reaction Index - Revised speaks in favour of their significantly higher vulnerability even after three years after the end of war. Total degree of the traumatisation, as well as the symptoms of intrusion, avoidance, and hyper-arousal are significantly more frequent. In 42.5% of refugees (in relation to 26.7% of domicile persons there is PTSP risk. The intensification of criteria proves that 17% of refugees are at high risk (in relation to 5.2% of the domiciled. It is obvious, that refuge presents traumatic event for many people, and not only chronic burden. The results suggest that the effect of direct jeopardy, combat stress, and the testimony of somebody else’s death are fading in time, but that the culmination of tangible, social, and human losses in refuge is serious risk factor for mental health.

  19. Decisional role preferences, risk knowledge and information interests in patients with multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heesen, Christoph; Kasper, Jürgen; Segal, Julia; Köpke, Sascha; Mühlhauser, Ingrid

    2004-12-01

    Shared decision making is increasingly recognized as the ideal model of patient-physician communication especially in chronic diseases with partially effective treatments as multiple sclerosis (MS). To evaluate prerequisite factors for this kind of decision making we studied patients' decisional role preferences in medical decision making, knowledge on risks, information interests and the relations between these factors in MS. After conducting focus groups to generate hypotheses, 219 randomly selected patients from the MS Outpatient Clinic register (n = 1374) of the University Hospital Hamburg received mailed questionnaires on their knowledge of risks in MS, their perception of their own level of knowledge, information interests and role preferences. Most patients (79%) indicated that they preferred an active role in treatment decisions giving the shared decision and the informed choice model the highest priority. MS risk knowledge was low but questionnaire results depended on disease course, disease duration and ongoing immune therapy. Measured knowledge as well as perceived knowledge was only weakly correlated with preferences of active roles. Major information interests were related to symptom alleviation, diagnostic procedures and prognosis. Patients with MS claimed autonomous roles in their health care decisions. The weak correlation between knowledge and preferences for active roles implicates that other factors largely influence role preferences.

  20. Electromagnetic Marchenko scheme based internal multiple elimination for lossless media

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, L.; Slob, E.C.

    2017-01-01

    Iterative substitution of the Marchenko equation has been introduced recently to integrate internal multiple reflection in the seismic and electromagnetic imaging process. In the so-called Marchenko imaging, solving the Marchenko equation at each imaging point is required to meet this objective.

  1. Additivity of Feature-based and Symmetry-based Grouping Effects in Multiple Object Tracking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chundi eWang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Multiple object tracking (MOT is an attentional process wherein people track several moving targets among several distractors. Symmetry, an important indicator of regularity, is a general spatial pattern observed in natural and artificial scenes. According to the laws of perceptual organization proposed by Gestalt psychologists, regularity is a principle of perceptual grouping, such as similarity and closure. A great deal of research reported that feature-based similarity grouping (e.g., grouping based on color, size, or shape among targets in MOT tasks can improve tracking performance. However, no additive feature-based grouping effects have been reported where the tracking objects had two or more features. Additive effect refers to a greater grouping effect produced by grouping based on multiple cues instead of one cue. Can spatial symmetry produce a similar grouping effect similar to that of feature similarity in MOT tasks? Are the grouping effects based on symmetry and feature similarity additive? This study includes four experiments to address these questions. The results of Experiments 1 and 2 demonstrated the automatic symmetry-based grouping effects. More importantly, an additive grouping effect of symmetry and feature similarity was observed in Experiments 3 and 4. Our findings indicate that symmetry can produce an enhanced grouping effect in MOT and facilitate the grouping effect based on color or shape similarity. The where and what pathways might have played an important role in the additive grouping effect.

  2. Target intervention against multiple-risk markers to reduce cardiovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gaede, Peter; Pedersen, Oluf

    2004-01-01

    The risk of cardiovascular disease is markedly increased in patients with type 2 diabetes with a prevalence twice as high compared to the background population. With the recognition of multiple concomitant risk factors for both microvascular as well as cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetic pa...

  3. People with multiple tattoos and/or piercings are not at increased risk for HBV or HCV in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Urbanus, Anouk T.; van den Hoek, Anneke; Boonstra, Albert; van Houdt, Robin; de Bruijn, Lotte J.; Heijman, Titia; Coutinho, Roel A.; Prins, Maria

    2011-01-01

    Although published results are inconsistent, it has been suggested that tattooing and piercing are risk factors for HBV and HCV infections. To examine whether tattooing and piercing do indeed increase the risk of infection, we conducted a study among people with multiple tattoos and/or piercings in

  4. Multiplicative interaction of functional inflammasome genetic variants in determining the risk of gout.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinney, Cushla; Stamp, Lisa K; Dalbeth, Nicola; Topless, Ruth K; Day, Richard O; Kannangara, Diluk Rw; Williams, Kenneth M; Janssen, Matthijs; Jansen, Timothy L; Joosten, Leo A; Radstake, Timothy R; Riches, Philip L; Tausche, Anne-Kathrin; Lioté, Frederic; So, Alexander; Merriman, Tony R

    2015-10-13

    The acute gout flare results from a localised self-limiting innate immune response to monosodium urate (MSU) crystals deposited in joints in hyperuricaemic individuals. Activation of the caspase recruitment domain-containing protein 8 (CARD8) NOD-like receptor pyrin-containing 3 (NLRP3) inflammasome by MSU crystals and production of mature interleukin-1β (IL-1β) is central to acute gouty arthritis. However very little is known about genetic control of the innate immune response involved in acute gouty arthritis. Therefore our aim was to test functional single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) variants in the toll-like receptor (TLR)-inflammasome-IL-1β axis for association with gout. 1,494 gout cases of European and 863 gout cases of New Zealand (NZ) Polynesian (Māori and Pacific Island) ancestry were included. Gout was diagnosed by the 1977 ARA gout classification criteria. There were 1,030 Polynesian controls and 10,942 European controls including from the publicly-available Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) and Framingham Heart (FHS) studies. The ten SNPs were either genotyped by Sequenom MassArray or by Affymetrix SNP array or imputed in the ARIC and FHS datasets. Allelic association was done by logistic regression adjusting by age and sex with European and Polynesian data combined by meta-analysis. Sample sets were pooled for multiplicative interaction analysis, which was also adjusted by sample set. Eleven SNPs were tested in the TLR2, CD14, IL1B, CARD8, NLRP3, MYD88, P2RX7, DAPK1 and TNXIP genes. Nominally significant (P gout were detected at CARD8 rs2043211 (OR = 1.12, P = 0.007), IL1B rs1143623 (OR = 1.10, P = 0.020) and CD14 rs2569190 (OR = 1.08; P = 0.036). There was significant multiplicative interaction between CARD8 and IL1B (P = 0.005), with the IL1B risk genotype amplifying the risk effect of CARD8. There is evidence for association of gout with functional variants in CARD8, IL1B and CD14. The gout-associated allele of IL1B increases

  5. Multiple Gene-Environment Interactions on the Angiogenesis Gene-Pathway Impact Rectal Cancer Risk and Survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noha Sharafeldin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Characterization of gene-environment interactions (GEIs in cancer is limited. We aimed at identifying GEIs in rectal cancer focusing on a relevant biologic process involving the angiogenesis pathway and relevant environmental exposures: cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption, and animal protein intake. We analyzed data from 747 rectal cancer cases and 956 controls from the Diet, Activity and Lifestyle as a Risk Factor for Rectal Cancer study. We applied a 3-step analysis approach: first, we searched for interactions among single nucleotide polymorphisms on the pathway genes; second, we searched for interactions among the genes, both steps using Logic regression; third, we examined the GEIs significant at the 5% level using logistic regression for cancer risk and Cox proportional hazards models for survival. Permutation-based test was used for multiple testing adjustment. We identified 8 significant GEIs associated with risk among 6 genes adjusting for multiple testing: TNF (OR = 1.85, 95% CI: 1.10, 3.11, TLR4 (OR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.38, 3.98, and EGR2 (OR = 2.23, 95% CI: 1.04, 4.78 with smoking; IGF1R (OR = 1.69, 95% CI: 1.04, 2.72, TLR4 (OR = 2.10, 95% CI: 1.22, 3.60 and EGR2 (OR = 2.12, 95% CI: 1.01, 4.46 with alcohol; and PDGFB (OR = 1.75, 95% CI: 1.04, 2.92 and MMP1 (OR = 2.44, 95% CI: 1.24, 4.81 with protein. Five GEIs were associated with survival at the 5% significance level but not after multiple testing adjustment: CXCR1 (HR = 2.06, 95% CI: 1.13, 3.75 with smoking; and KDR (HR = 4.36, 95% CI: 1.62, 11.73, TLR2 (HR = 9.06, 95% CI: 1.14, 72.11, EGR2 (HR = 2.45, 95% CI: 1.42, 4.22, and EGFR (HR = 6.33, 95% CI: 1.95, 20.54 with protein. GEIs between angiogenesis genes and smoking, alcohol, and animal protein impact rectal cancer risk. Our results support the importance of considering the biologic hypothesis to characterize GEIs associated with cancer outcomes.

  6. Season of infectious mononucleosis as a risk factor for multiple sclerosis: A UK primary care case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downham, Christina; Visser, Elizabeth; Vickers, Mark; Counsell, Carl

    2017-10-01

    Infectious mononucleosis (IM) and vitamin D deficiency are both risk factors for multiple sclerosis (MS). We wished to establish if IM in the winter months when vitamin D levels are low may be a greater risk factor for MS than IM in the summer months. We identified all patients with MS diagnosed aged 16-60 in a large primary care database in the United Kingdom and matched each by age, sex, general practice and observation period with up to six controls. We identified a coded diagnosis of IM prior to the index date (date of diagnosis). Logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratio for prior IM exposure in cases versus controls and for winter versus summer exposure in cases and controls with prior IM exposure. Based on 9247 cases and 55,033 matched controls (246 and 846 with prior IM respectively), IM was associated with the development of MS (OR 1.77, 95%CI 1.53-2.05) but there was no evidence that IM in the winter as opposed to summer was associated with developing MS (OR 1.09, 95%CI 0.72-1.66). We found no evidence that the season of IM influences the risk of subsequent MS. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Sexual behavior, risk perception, and HIV transmission can respond to HIV antiviral drugs and vaccines through multiple pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tully, Stephen; Cojocaru, Monica; Bauch, Chris T.

    2015-01-01

    There has been growing use of highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) for HIV and significant progress in developing prophylactic HIV vaccines. The simplest theories of counterproductive behavioral responses to such interventions tend to focus on single feedback mechanisms: for instance, HAART optimism makes infection less scary and thus promotes risky sexual behavior. Here, we develop an agent based, age-structured model of HIV transmission, risk perception, and partner selection in a core group to explore behavioral responses to interventions. We find that interventions can activate not one, but several feedback mechanisms that could potentially influence decision-making and HIV prevalence. In the model, HAART increases the attractiveness of unprotected sex, but it also increases perceived risk of infection and, on longer timescales, causes demographic impacts that partially counteract HAART optimism. Both HAART and vaccination usually lead to lower rates of unprotected sex on the whole, but intervention effectiveness depends strongly on whether individuals over- or under-estimate intervention coverage. Age-specific effects cause sexual behavior and HIV prevalence to change in opposite ways in old and young age groups. For complex infections like HIV—where interventions influence transmission, demography, sexual behavior and risk perception—we conclude that evaluations of behavioral responses should consider multiple feedback mechanisms. PMID:26507957

  8. [Dyslipidaemia and vascular risk. A new evidence based review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pallarés-Carratalá, V; Pascual-Fuster, V; Godoy-Rocatí, D

    2015-01-01

    Dyslipidaemia is one of the major risk factors for ischaemic heart disease, the leading cause of death worldwide. Early detection and therapeutic intervention are key elements in the adequate prevention of cardiovascular disease. It is essential to have knowledge of the therapeutic arsenal available for their appropriate use in each of the clinical situations that might be presented in our patients. In the past 3 years, there has been a proliferation of multiple guidelines for the clinical management of patients with dyslipidaemia, with apparent contradictory messages regarding the achievement of the control objectives, which are confusing clinicians. This review aims to provide an updated overview of the situation as regards dyslipidaemia, based on the positioning of both European and American guidelines, through different risk situations and ending with the concept of atherogenic dyslipidaemia as a recognized cardiovascular risk factor. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Médicos de Atención Primaria (SEMERGEN). Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  9. Maintenance evaluation using risk based criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres Valle, A.

    1996-01-01

    The maintenance evaluation is currently performed by using economic and, in some case, technical equipment failure criteria, however this is done to a specific equipment level. In general, when statistics are used the analysis for maintenance optimization are made isolated and whit a post mortem character; The integration provided by mean of Probabilistic Safety assessment (PSA) together with the possibilities of its applications, allow for evaluation of maintenance on the basis of broader scope criteria in regard to those traditionally used. The evaluate maintenance using risk based criteria, is necessary to follow a dynamic and systematic approach, in studying the maintenance strategy, to allow for updating the initial probabilistic models, for including operational changes that often take place during operation of complex facilities. This paper proposes a dynamic evaluation system of maintenance task. The system is illustrated by means of a practical example

  10. Characteristics in childhood and adolescence associated with future multiple sclerosis risk in men: cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunnarsson, M; Udumyan, R; Bahmanyar, S; Nilsagård, Y; Montgomery, S

    2015-07-01

    Associations with multiple sclerosis (MS) of living conditions in childhood and characteristics in adolescence including physical fitness, cognitive function and psychological stress resilience were investigated. A cohort of male Swedish residents born 1952-1956 who were included in the Swedish Military Conscription Register was used to create a nested case-control study comprising 628 MS cases and 6187 controls matched on birth year, county of residence and vital status at time of diagnosis. Conscription examination records were linked with other national register data. Conditional logistic regression was used to evaluate associations with MS subsequent to the conscription examination. Men with MS were less likely to be from more crowded households in childhood (>two persons per room) with an adjusted odds ratio of 0.67 (95% confidence interval 0.51-0.86, P = 0.023). They had lower physical working capacity in adolescence with adjusted odds ratio of 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.89-0.99, P = 0.026). Cognitive function and stress resilience scores displayed no significant differences between cases and controls. Parental occupation in childhood and body mass index in adolescence were not associated with future MS risk. The inverse association of MS risk with higher levels of household crowding may reflect environmental factors such as the pattern of exposure to microorganisms. Lower physical fitness in men at MS risk may indicate a protective effect of exercise or could be due to prodromal disease activity, although there was no association with cognitive function. Poor psychological stress resilience (and thus risk of chronic stress arousal) was not associated with MS. © 2015 The Authors. European Journal of Neurology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Academy of Neurology.

  11. Distribution patterns of infection with multiple types of human papillomaviruses and their association with risk factors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Soto-De Leon

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Infection with multiple types of human papillomavirus (HPV is one of the main risk factors associated with the development of cervical lesions. In this study, cervical samples collected from 1,810 women with diverse sociocultural backgrounds, who attended to their cervical screening program in different geographical regions of Colombia, were examined for the presence of cervical lesions and HPV by Papanicolau testing and DNA PCR detection, respectively. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The negative binomial distribution model used in this study showed differences between the observed and expected values within some risk factor categories analyzed. Particularly in the case of single infection and coinfection with more than 4 HPV types, observed frequencies were smaller than expected, while the number of women infected with 2 to 4 viral types were higher than expected. Data analysis according to a negative binomial regression showed an increase in the risk of acquiring more HPV types in women who were of indigenous ethnicity (+37.8%, while this risk decreased in women who had given birth more than 4 times (-31.1%, or were of mestizo (-24.6% or black (-40.9% ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: According to a theoretical probability distribution, the observed number of women having either a single infection or more than 4 viral types was smaller than expected, while for those infected with 2-4 HPV types it was larger than expected. Taking into account that this study showed a higher HPV coinfection rate in the indigenous ethnicity, the role of underlying factors should be assessed in detail in future studies.

  12. Connection-based and object-based grouping in multiple-object tracking: A developmental study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van der Hallen, Ruth; Reusens, Julie; Evers, Kris; de-Wit, Lee; Wagemans, Johan

    2018-03-30

    Developmental research on Gestalt laws has previously revealed that, even as young as infancy, we are bound to group visual elements into unitary structures in accordance with a variety of organizational principles. Here, we focus on the developmental trajectory of both connection-based and object-based grouping, and investigate their impact on object formation in participants, aged 9-21 years old (N = 113), using a multiple-object tracking paradigm. Results reveal a main effect of both age and grouping type, indicating that 9- to 21-year-olds are sensitive to both connection-based and object-based grouping interference, and tracking ability increases with age. In addition to its importance for typical development, these results provide an informative baseline to understand clinical aberrations in this regard. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? The origin of the Gestalt principles is still an ongoing debate: Are they innate, learned over time, or both? Developmental research has revealed how each Gestalt principle has its own trajectory and unique relationship to visual experience. Both connectedness and object-based grouping play an important role in object formation during childhood. What does this study add? The study identifies how sensitivity to connectedness and object-based grouping evolves in individuals, aged 9-21 years old. Using multiple-object tracking, results reveal that the ability to track multiple objects increases with age. These results provide an informative baseline to understand clinical aberrations in different types of grouping. © 2018 The Authors. British Journal of Developmental Psychology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Psychological Society.

  13. Vitamin-D Deficiency As a Potential Environmental Risk Factor in Multiple Sclerosis, Schizophrenia, and Autism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kočovská, Eva; Gaughran, Fiona; Krivoy, Amir; Meier, Ute-Christiane

    2017-01-01

    In this short review, we want to summarize the current findings on the role of vitamin-D in multiple sclerosis (MS), schizophrenia, and autism. Many studies have highlighted hypovitaminosis-D as a potential environmental risk factor for a variety of conditions such as MS, asthma, cardiovascular disease, and, more recently, psychiatric diseases. However, whether hypovitaminosis-D is a potential causative factor for the development or activity in these conditions or whether hypovitaminosis-D may be due to increased vitamin-D consumption by an activated immune system (reverse causation) is the focus of intense research. Here, we will discuss current evidence exploring the role of vitamin-D in MS, schizophrenia, and autism and its impact on adaptive and innate immunity, antimicrobial defense, the microbiome, neuroinflammation, behavior, and neurogenesis. More work is needed to gain insight into its role in the underlying pathophysiology of these conditions as it may offer attractive means of intervention and prevention.

  14. Balancing precision and risk: should multiple detection methods be analyzed separately in N-mixture models?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tabitha A Graves

    Full Text Available Using multiple detection methods can increase the number, kind, and distribution of individuals sampled, which may increase accuracy and precision and reduce cost of population abundance estimates. However, when variables influencing abundance are of interest, if individuals detected via different methods are influenced by the landscape differently, separate analysis of multiple detection methods may be more appropriate. We evaluated the effects of combining two detection methods on the identification of variables important to local abundance using detections of grizzly bears with hair traps (systematic and bear rubs (opportunistic. We used hierarchical abundance models (N-mixture models with separate model components for each detection method. If both methods sample the same population, the use of either data set alone should (1 lead to the selection of the same variables as important and (2 provide similar estimates of relative local abundance. We hypothesized that the inclusion of 2 detection methods versus either method alone should (3 yield more support for variables identified in single method analyses (i.e. fewer variables and models with greater weight, and (4 improve precision of covariate estimates for variables selected in both separate and combined analyses because sample size is larger. As expected, joint analysis of both methods increased precision as well as certainty in variable and model selection. However, the single-method analyses identified different variables and the resulting predicted abundances had different spatial distributions. We recommend comparing single-method and jointly modeled results to identify the presence of individual heterogeneity between detection methods in N-mixture models, along with consideration of detection probabilities, correlations among variables, and tolerance to risk of failing to identify variables important to a subset of the population. The benefits of increased precision should be weighed

  15. Optical encryption of multiple three-dimensional objects based on multiple interferences and single-pixel digital holography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ying; Liu, Qi; Wang, Jun; Wang, Qiong-Hua

    2018-03-01

    We present an optical encryption method of multiple three-dimensional objects based on multiple interferences and single-pixel digital holography. By modifying the Mach–Zehnder interferometer, the interference of the multiple objects beams and the one reference beam is used to simultaneously encrypt multiple objects into a ciphertext. During decryption, each three-dimensional object can be decrypted independently without having to decrypt other objects. Since the single-pixel digital holography based on compressive sensing theory is introduced, the encrypted data of this method is effectively reduced. In addition, recording fewer encrypted data can greatly reduce the bandwidth of network transmission. Moreover, the compressive sensing essentially serves as a secret key that makes an intruder attack invalid, which means that the system is more secure than the conventional encryption method. Simulation results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method and show that the system has good security performance. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61405130 and 61320106015).

  16. Multiple sclerosis risk sharing scheme: two year results of clinical cohort study with historical comparator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boggild, Mike; Palace, Jackie; Barton, Pelham; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Bregenzer, Thomas; Dobson, Charles; Gray, Richard

    2009-12-02

    To generate evidence on the longer term cost effectiveness of disease modifying treatments in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Prospective cohort study with historical comparator. Specialist multiple sclerosis clinics in 70 centres in the United Kingdom. Patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis who started treatment from May 2002 to April 2005 under the UK risk sharing scheme. Treatment with interferon beta or glatiramer acetate in accordance with guidelines of the UK Association of British Neurologists. Observed utility weighted progression in disability at two years' follow-up assessed on the expanded disability status scale (EDSS) compared with that expected by applying the progression rates in a comparator dataset, modified for patients receiving treatment by multiplying by the hazard ratio derived separately for each disease modifying treatment from the randomised trials. In the primary per protocol analysis, progression in disability was worse than that predicted and worse than that in the untreated comparator dataset ("deviation score" of 113%; excess in mean disability status scale 0.28). In sensitivity analyses, however, the deviation score varied from -72% (using raw baseline disability status scale scores, rather than applying a "no improvement" algorithm) to 156% (imputing missing data for year two from progression rates for year one). It is too early to reach any conclusion about the cost effectiveness of disease modifying treatments from this first interim analysis. Important methodological issues, including the need for additional comparator datasets, the potential bias from missing data, and the impact of the "no improvement" rule, will need to be addressed and long term follow-up of all patients is essential to secure meaningful results. Future analyses of the cohort are likely to be more informative, not least because they will be less sensitive to short term fluctuations in disability.

  17. The impact of multiple show-ups on eyewitness decision-making and innocence risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Andrew M; Bertrand, Michelle; Lindsay, R C L; Kalmet, Natalie; Grossman, Deborah; Provenzano, Daniel

    2014-09-01

    If an eyewitness rejects a show-up, police may respond by finding a new suspect and conducting a second show-up with the same eyewitness. Police may continue finding suspects and conducting show-ups until the eyewitness makes an identification (Study 1). Relatively low criterion-setting eyewitnesses filter themselves out of the multiple show-ups procedure by choosing the first suspect with whom they are presented (Studies 2 and 3). Accordingly, response bias was more stringent on the second show-up when compared with the first, but became no more stringent with additional show-ups. Despite this stringent shift in response bias, innocence risk increased with additional show-ups, as false alarms cumulate (Studies 2 and 3). Although unbiased show-up instructions decreased innocent suspect identifications, the numbers were still discouraging (Study 4). Given the high number of innocent suspects who would be mistakenly identified through the use of multiple show-up procedures, using such identifications as evidence of guilt is questionable. Although evidence of guilt is limited to identifications from a single show-up, practical constraints might sometimes require police to use additional show-ups. Accordingly, we propose a stronger partition between evidentiary and investigative procedures. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  18. Cancer risk among patients with multiple sclerosis: A cohort study in Isfahan, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etemadifar, Masoud; Jahanbani-Ardakani, Hamidreza; Ghaffari, Sara; Fereidan-Esfahani, Maboobeh; Changaei, Hossein; Aghadoost, Nazila; Jahanbani Ardakani, Ameneh; Moradkhani, Negin

    2017-01-01

    Multiple sclerosis (MS), a central nervous system (CNS) autoimmune disorder, affects 2.3 million people around the world. Cancer kills around 7.5 million people annually. Both diseases have similar risks and intertwining molecular causes. Most studies focusing on MS and cancer have found an insignificant difference or reduction in the amount of cancer found in the MS community. We performed a cohort study using data from Isfahan Multiple Sclerosis Society (IMSS) and Isfahan cancer society and followed-up for 8 years on average (2006-2014). All of the 1718 MS patients were diagnosed according to McDonald's criteria, then standardized incidence ratio and the numbers of expected cancer case were calculated. While patients had an insignificant change in cancer prevalence, men had fewer cancer cases and women showed an increased prevalence of cancer. Certain types of cancer proved statistically significant. Breast cancer, nervous system cancers, and lymphoma were elevated in the cohort. Our results support the hypothesis that MS significantly affects certain cancers in a protective or associative manner. All cancer rates, except breast cancer, cancers located in the nervous system, and lymphomas were reduced in cohort, suggesting that unregulated immune function may provide protective effects to MS patients against cancer.

  19. HOW INTERNAL RISK - BASED AUDIT APPRAISES THE EVALUATION OF RISKS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Dorosh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the nature and function of the internal risk-based audit process approach to create patterns of risks and methods of evaluation. Deals with the relationship between the level of maturity of the risk of the company and the method of risk-based internal audit. it was emphasized that internal auditing provides an independent and objective opinion to an organization’s management as to whether its risks are being managed to acceptable levels.

  20. Efficient computation of the joint probability of multiple inherited risk alleles from pedigree data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madsen, Thomas; Braun, Danielle; Peng, Gang; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Trippa, Lorenzo

    2018-06-25

    The Elston-Stewart peeling algorithm enables estimation of an individual's probability of harboring germline risk alleles based on pedigree data, and serves as the computational backbone of important genetic counseling tools. However, it remains limited to the analysis of risk alleles at a small number of genetic loci because its computing time grows exponentially with the number of loci considered. We propose a novel, approximate version of this algorithm, dubbed the peeling and paring algorithm, which scales polynomially in the number of loci. This allows extending peeling-based models to include many genetic loci. The algorithm creates a trade-off between accuracy and speed, and allows the user to control this trade-off. We provide exact bounds on the approximation error and evaluate it in realistic simulations. Results show that the loss of accuracy due to the approximation is negligible in important applications. This algorithm will improve genetic counseling tools by increasing the number of pathogenic risk alleles that can be addressed. To illustrate we create an extended five genes version of BRCAPRO, a widely used model for estimating the carrier probabilities of BRCA1 and BRCA2 risk alleles and assess its computational properties. © 2018 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

  1. Studies based on the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koch-Henriksen, Nils; Stenager, Egon; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    , historical prospective studies identifying some risk factors (e.g. infectious mononucleosis) and refuting others (head trauma and a number of occupational exposures e.g. nurses, utility workers, people exposed to solvents). The most important results are briefly presented. CONCLUSION: The Danish MS register...

  2. A developmental screening tool for toddlers with multiple domains based on Rasch analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Ai-Wen; Chou, Yeh-Tai; Hsieh, Ching-Lin; Hsieh, Wu-Shiun; Liao, Hua-Fang; Wong, Alice May-Kuen

    2015-01-01

    Using multidomain developmental screening tools is a feasible method for pediatric health care professionals to identify children at risk of developmental problems in multiple domains simultaneously. The purpose of this study was to develop a Rasch-based tool for Multidimensional Screening in Child Development (MuSiC) for children aged 0-3 years. The MuSic was developed by constructing items bank based on three commonly used screening tools, validating with developmental status (at risk for delay or not) on five developmental domains. Parents of a convenient sample of 632 children (aged 3-35.5 months) with and without developmental delays responded to items from the three screening tools funded by health authorities in Taiwan. Item bank was determined by item fit of Rasch analysis for each of the five developmental domains (cognitive skills, language skills, gross motor skills, fine motor skills, and socioadaptive skills). Children's performance scores in logits derived in Rasch analysis were validated with developmental status for each domain using the area under receiver operating characteristic curves. MuSiC, a 75-item developmental screening tool for five domains, was derived. The diagnostic validity of all five domains was acceptable for all stages of development, except for the infant stage (≤11 months and 15 days). MuSiC can be applied simultaneously to well-child care visits as a universal screening tool for children aged 1-3 years on multiple domains. Items with sound validity for infants need to be further developed. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  3. Project transition to risk based corrective action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Judge, J.M.; Cormier, S.L.

    1996-01-01

    Many states have adopted or are considering the adoption of the America Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) Standard E 1739, Standard for Risk Based Corrective Action (RBCA) Applied to Petroleum Release Sites. This standard is being adopted to regulate leaking underground storage tank (LUST) sites. The case studies of two LUST sites in Michigan will be presented to demonstrate the decision making process and limiting factors involved in transitioning sites to the RBCA program. Both of these case studies had been previously investigated and one was actively remediated. The first case study involves a private petroleum facility where soil and ground water have been impacted. Remediation involved a ground water pump and treat system. Subsequent monitoring during system operation indicated that analytical data were still above the Tier 1 RBSLs but below the Tier 2 SSTLs. The closure strategy that was developed was based on the compounds of concern that were below the SSTLs. A deed restriction was also developed for the site as an institutional control. The second LUST site exhibited BTEX concentrations in soil and ground water above the Tier 1 RBSLs. Due to the exceedence of the Tier 1 RBSLs, the second site required a Tier 2 assessment to develop SSTLs as remedial objectives and remove hot spots in the soil and treat the ground water to achieve closure. Again, a deed restriction was instituted along with a performance monitoring plan

  4. Type 2 diabetes-related variants influence the risk of developing multiple myeloma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ríos, Rafael; Lupiañez, Carmen Belén; Campa, Daniele

    2015-01-01

    Type 2 diabetes (T2D) has been suggested to be a risk factor for multiple myeloma (MM), but the relationship between the two traits is still not well understood. The aims of this study were to evaluate whether 58 genome-wide-association-studies (GWAS)-identified common variants for T2D influence...... genetic information (area under the curve (AUC)=0.645 vs AUC=0.629; P=4.05×10(-) (06)). A gender-stratified analysis also revealed a significant gender effect modification for ADAM30rs2641348 and NOTCH2rs10923931 variants (Pinteraction=0.001 and 0.0004, respectively). Men carrying the ADAM30rs2641348C...... carrying the KCNQ1rs2237892T allele or the CDKN2A-2Brs2383208G/G, IGF1rs35767T/T and MADDrs7944584T/T genotypes had a significantly increased risk of MM (odds ratio (OR)=1.32-2.13) whereas those carrying the KCNJ11rs5215C, KCNJ11rs5219T and THADArs7578597C alleles or the FTOrs8050136A/A and LTArs1041981C...

  5. Variants of ST8SIA1 are associated with risk of developing multiple sclerosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seema Husain

    Full Text Available Multiple sclerosis (MS is an inflammatory demyelinating disease of the central nervous system of unknown etiology with both genetic and environmental factors playing a role in susceptibility. To date, the HLA DR15/DQ6 haplotype within the major histocompatibility complex on chromosome 6p, is the strongest genetic risk factor associated with MS susceptibility. Additional alleles of IL7 and IL2 have been identified as risk factors for MS with small effect. Here we present two independent studies supporting an allelic association of MS with polymorphisms in the ST8SIA1 gene, located on chromosome 12p12 and encoding ST8 alpha-N-acetyl-neuraminide alpha-2,8-sialyltransferase 1. The initial association was made in a single three-generation family where a single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP rs4762896, was segregating together with HLA DR15/DQ6 in MS patients. A study of 274 family trios (affected child and both unaffected parents from Australia validated the association of ST8SIA1 in individuals with MS, showing transmission disequilibrium of the paternal alleles for three additional SNPs, namely rs704219, rs2041906, and rs1558793, with p = 0.001, p = 0.01 and p = 0.01 respectively. These findings implicate ST8SIA1 as a possible novel susceptibility gene for MS.

  6. Month of birth as a latitude-dependent risk factor for multiple sclerosis in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grytten, Nina; Torkildsen, Øivind; Aarseth, Jan Harald; Benjaminsen, Espen; Celius, Elisabeth Gulowsen; Dahl, Ole Petter; Holmøy, Trygve; Løken-Amsrud, Kristin; Midgard, Rune; Myhr, Kjell-Morten; Risberg, Geir; Vatne, Anita; Kampman, Margitta T

    2013-07-01

    We aimed to determine if the risk of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is associated with month of birth in Norway and to explore a possible latitudinal gradient. All patients with MS born between 1930 and 1979 registered in the Norwegian MS Registry or ascertained in Norwegian prevalence studies were included (n = 6649). The latitude gradient was divided in Southern, Middle and Northern Norway, according to the estimated regional yearly mean vitamin D effective UV dose. Risk of MS was 11% higher for those born in April (p = 0.045), and 5% higher for those born in May (p = 0.229), 5% lower for those born in November (p = 0.302) and 12% lower for those born in February (p = 0.053) compared with the corresponding population, unaffected mothers and siblings. In Southern Norway the odds ratio of MS births in April and May was 1.05 (0.98-1.24), in Middle Norway 1.11 (0.97-1.27) and in Northern Norway 1.28 (1.0-1.63) compared with the other months. This study confirms previous reports of increased MS births in spring and decreased MS births in the winter months. This could support the role of decreased sunlight exposure during pregnancy and vitamin D deficiency in prenatal life in MS.

  7. Cost effectiveness of risk-based closures at UST sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scruton, K.M.; Baker, J.N.

    1995-01-01

    Risk-based closures have been achieved at Underground Storage Tank (UST) sites throughout the country for a major transportation company. The risk-based closures were cost-effective because a streamlined risk-based approach was used instead of the generic baseline risk assessment approach. USEPA has recently provided guidance encouraging the use of risk-based methodology for achieving closure at UST sites. The risk-based approach used in achieving the site closures involved an identification of potential human and ecological receptors and exposure pathways, and a comparison of maximum onsite chemical concentrations to applicable or relevant and appropriate requirements (ARARs). The ARARs used in the evaluation included Federal and/or State Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) for groundwater and risk-based screening levels for soils. If the maximum concentrations were above the screening levels, a baseline risk assessment was recommended. In several instances, however, the risk-based approach resulted in a regulatory agency acceptance of a ''no further action'' alternative at UST sites which did not pose a significant threat to human health and the environment. The cost of the streamlined risk-based approach is approximately $3,500, while a baseline risk assessment for the same UST site could cost up to $10,000 or more. The use of the streamlined risk-based approach has proven to be successful for achieving a ''no further action'' outcome for the client at a reasonable cost

  8. A risk-based microbiological criterion that uses the relative risk as the critical limit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jens Kirk; Nørrung, Birgit; da Costa Alves Machado, Simone

    2015-01-01

    A risk-based microbiological criterion is described, that is based on the relative risk associated to the analytical result of a number of samples taken from a food lot. The acceptable limit is a specific level of risk and not a specific number of microorganisms, as in other microbiological...... criteria. The approach requires the availability of a quantitative microbiological risk assessment model to get risk estimates for food products from sampled food lots. By relating these food lot risk estimates to the mean risk estimate associated to a representative baseline data set, a relative risk...... estimate can be obtained. This relative risk estimate then can be compared with a critical value, defined by the criterion. This microbiological criterion based on a relative risk limit is particularly useful when quantitative enumeration data are available and when the prevalence of the microorganism...

  9. The impacts of multiple rest-break periods on commercial truck driver's crash risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chen; Xie, Yuanchang

    2014-02-01

    Driver fatigue has been a major contributing factor to fatal commercial truck crashes, which accounted for about 10% of all fatal motor vehicle crashes that happened between 2009 and 2011. Commercial truck drivers' safety performance can deteriorate easily due to fatigue caused by long driving hours and irregular working schedules. To ensure safety, truck drivers often use off-duty time and short rest breaks during a trip to recover from fatigue. This study thoroughly investigates the impacts of off-duty time prior to a trip and short rest breaks on commercial truck safety by using Cox proportional hazards model and Andersen-Gill model. It is found that increasing total rest-break duration can consistently reduce fatigue-related crash risk. Similarly, taking more rest breaks can help to reduce crash risk. The results suggest that two rest breaks are generally considered enough for a 10-hour trip, as three or more rest breaks may not further reduce crash risk substantially. Also, the length of each rest break does not need to be very long and 30min is usually adequate. In addition, this study investigates the safety impacts of when to take rest breaks. It is found that taking rest breaks too soon after a trip starts will cause the rest breaks to be less effective. The findings of this research can help policy makers and trucking companies better understand the impacts of multiple rest-break periods and develop more effective rules to improve the safety of truck drivers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

  10. Limits in feature-based attention to multiple colors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Taosheng; Jigo, Michael

    2017-11-01

    Attention to a feature enhances the sensory representation of that feature. Although much has been learned about the properties of attentional modulation when attending to a single feature, the effectiveness of attending to multiple features is not well understood. We investigated this question in a series of experiments using a color-detection task while varying the number of attended colors in a cueing paradigm. Observers were shown either a single cue, two cues, or no cue (baseline) before detecting a coherent color target. We measured detection threshold by varying the coherence level of the target. Compared to the baseline condition, we found consistent facilitation of detection performance in the one-cue and two-cue conditions, but performance in the two-cue condition was lower than that in the one-cue condition. In the final experiment, we presented a 50% valid cue to emulate the situation in which observers were only able to attend a single color in the two-cue condition, and found equivalent detection thresholds with the standard two-cue condition. These results indicate a limit in attending to two colors and further imply that observers could effectively attend a single color at a time. Such a limit is likely due to an inability to maintain multiple active attentional templates for colors.

  11. 12 CFR Appendix B to Part 3 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...) The bank must have a risk control unit that reports directly to senior management and is independent... management systems at least annually. (c) Market risk factors. The bank's internal model must use risk.... Section 4. Internal Models (a) General. For risk-based capital purposes, a bank subject to this appendix...

  12. A population-based study of effect of multiple birth on infant mortality in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uthman Mubashir B

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Multi-foetal pregnancies and multiple births including twins and higher order multiples births such as triplets and quadruplets are high-risk pregnancy and birth. These high-risk groups contribute to the higher rate of childhood mortality especially during early period of life. Methods We examined the relationship between multiple births and infant mortality using univariable and multivariable survival regression procedure with Weibull hazard function, controlling for child's sex, birth order, prenatal care, delivery assistance; mother's age at child birth, nutritional status, education level; household living conditions and several other risk factors. Results Children born multiple births were more than twice as likely to die during infancy as infants born singleton (hazard ratio = 2.19; 95% confidence interval: 1.50, 3.19 holding other factors constant. Maternal education and household asset index were associated with lower risk of infant mortality. Conclusion Multiple births are strongly negatively associated with infant survival in Nigeria independent of other risk factors. Mother's education played a protective role against infant death. This evidence suggests that improving maternal education may be key to improving child survival in Nigeria. A well-educated mother has a better chance of satisfying important factors that can improve infant survival: the quality of infant feeding, general care, household sanitation, and adequate use of preventive and curative health services.

  13. Modeling Freedom From Progression for Standard-Risk Medulloblastoma: A Mathematical Tumor Control Model With Multiple Modes of Failure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brodin, N. Patrik; Vogelius, Ivan R.; Björk-Eriksson, Thomas; Munck af Rosenschöld, Per; Bentzen, Søren M.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: As pediatric medulloblastoma (MB) is a relatively rare disease, it is important to extract the maximum information from trials and cohort studies. Here, a framework was developed for modeling tumor control with multiple modes of failure and time-to-progression for standard-risk MB, using published pattern of failure data. Methods and Materials: Outcome data for standard-risk MB published after 1990 with pattern of relapse information were used to fit a tumor control dose-response model addressing failures in both the high-dose boost volume and the elective craniospinal volume. Estimates of 5-year event-free survival from 2 large randomized MB trials were used to model the time-to-progression distribution. Uncertainty in freedom from progression (FFP) was estimated by Monte Carlo sampling over the statistical uncertainty in input data. Results: The estimated 5-year FFP (95% confidence intervals [CI]) for craniospinal doses of 15, 18, 24, and 36 Gy while maintaining 54 Gy to the posterior fossa was 77% (95% CI, 70%-81%), 78% (95% CI, 73%-81%), 79% (95% CI, 76%-82%), and 80% (95% CI, 77%-84%) respectively. The uncertainty in FFP was considerably larger for craniospinal doses below 18 Gy, reflecting the lack of data in the lower dose range. Conclusions: Estimates of tumor control and time-to-progression for standard-risk MB provides a data-driven setting for hypothesis generation or power calculations for prospective trials, taking the uncertainties into account. The presented methods can also be applied to incorporate further risk-stratification for example based on molecular biomarkers, when the necessary data become available

  14. A quantitative risk assessment of multiple factors influencing HIV/AIDS transmission through unprotected sex among HIV-seropositive men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerbi, Gemechu B; Habtemariam, Tsegaye; Tameru, Berhanu; Nganwa, David; Robnett, Vinaida

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this study is to conduct a quantitative risk assessment of multiple factors influencing HIV/AIDS transmission through unprotected sexual practices among HIV-seropositive men. A knowledgebase was developed by reviewing different published sources. The data were collected from different sources including Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, selected journals, and reports. The risk pathway scenario tree was developed based on a comprehensive review of published literature. The variables are organized into nine major parameter categories. Monte Carlo simulations for the quantitative risk assessment of HIV/AIDS transmission was executed with the software @Risk 4.0 (Palisade Corporation). Results show that the value for the likelihood of unprotected sex due to having less knowledge about HIV/AIDS and negative attitude toward condom use and safer sex ranged from 1.24 × 10(-5) to 8.47 × 10(-4) with the mean and standard deviation of 1.83 × 10(-4) and 8.63 × 10(-5), respectively. The likelihood of unprotected sex due to having greater anger-hostility, anxiety, less satisfied with aspects of life, and greater depressive symptoms ranged from 2.76 × 10(-9) to 5.34 × 10(-7) with the mean and standard deviation of 5.23 × 10(-8) and 3.58 × 10(-8), respectively. The findings suggest that HIV/AIDS research and intervention programs must be focused on behavior, and the broader setting within which individual risky behaviors occur.

  15. Implementation of Multiple Intelligences Supported Project-Based Learning in EFL/ESL Classrooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bas, Gokhan

    2008-01-01

    This article deals with the implementation of Multiple Intelligences supported Project-Based learning in EFL/ESL Classrooms. In this study, after Multiple Intelligences supported Project-based learning was presented shortly, the implementation of this learning method into English classrooms. Implementation process of MI supported Project-based…

  16. Multiple cardiovascular risk factors in Kenya: evidence from a health and demographic surveillance system using the WHO STEPwise approach to chronic disease risk factor surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloomfield, Gerald S; Mwangi, Ann; Chege, Patrick; Simiyu, Chrispinus J; Aswa, Daniel F; Odhiambo, David; Obala, Andrew A; Ayuo, Paul; Khwa-Otsyula, Barasa O

    2013-09-01

    To describe the distribution of cardiovascular risk factors in western Kenya using a Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS). Population based survey of residents in an HDSS. Webuye Division in Bungoma East District, Western Province of Kenya. 4037 adults ≥ 18 years of age. Home based survey using the WHO STEPwise approach to chronic disease risk factor surveillance. Self-report of high blood pressure, high blood sugar, tobacco use, alcohol use, physical activity, and fruit/vegetable intake. The median age of the population was 35 years (IQR 26-50). Less than 6% of the population reported high blood pressure or blood sugar. Tobacco and alcohol use were reported in 7% and 16% of the population, respectively. The majority of the population (93%) was physically active. The average number of days per week that participants reported intake of fruits (3.1 ± 0.1) or vegetables (1.6 ± 0.1) was low. In multiple logistic regression analyses, women were more likely to report a history of high blood pressure (OR 2.72, 95% CI 1.9 to 3.9), less likely to report using tobacco (OR 0.08, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.11), less likely to report alcohol use (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.15 to 0.21) or eat ≥ 5 servings per day of fruits or vegetables (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.99) compared to men. The most common cardiovascular risk factors in peri-urban western Kenya are tobacco use, alcohol use, and inadequate intake of fruits and vegetables. Our data reveal locally relevant subgroup differences that could inform future prevention efforts.

  17. 12 CFR 652.70 - Risk-based capital level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... risk-based capital level is the sum of the following amounts: (a) Credit and interest rate risk. The... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital level. 652.70 Section 652.70 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE...

  18. Risk-based inspection of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masopust, R.

    1995-01-01

    A multidiscipline research programme was developed in the USA to establish risk-based inspections for NPP structures and equipment components. Based on this US research effort, the risk-based procedure for developing inspection guidelines for NPPs is described. The procedure includes the definition of systems, qualitative risk assessment, qualitative risk analysis and development of the inspection programme. The method, when adopted and modified, is recommended also for risk-based inspections of structures and equipment of WWER-type NPPs. A pilot application of the method to unit 1 of the Surry NPP is summarized. (Z.S.) 1 tab., 1 fig., 5 refs

  19. Performance Analysis of a Threshold-Based Parallel Multiple Beam Selection Scheme for WDM FSO Systems

    KAUST Repository

    Nam, Sung Sik; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim; Ko, Young-Chai

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we statistically analyze the performance of a threshold-based parallel multiple beam selection scheme for a free-space optical (FSO) based system with wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) in cases where a pointing error has occurred

  20. Balancing focused combinatorial libraries based on multiple GPCR ligands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soltanshahi, Farhad; Mansley, Tamsin E.; Choi, Sun; Clark, Robert D.

    2006-08-01

    G-Protein coupled receptors (GPCRs) are important targets for drug discovery, and combinatorial chemistry is an important tool for pharmaceutical development. The absence of detailed structural information, however, limits the kinds of combinatorial design techniques that can be applied to GPCR targets. This is particularly problematic given the current emphasis on focused combinatorial libraries. By linking an incremental construction method (OptDesign) to the very fast shape-matching capability of ChemSpace, we have created an efficient method for designing targeted sublibraries that are topomerically similar to known actives. Multi-objective scoring allows consideration of multiple queries (actives) simultaneously. This can lead to a distribution of products skewed towards one particular query structure, however, particularly when the ligands of interest are quite dissimilar to one another. A novel pivoting technique is described which makes it possible to generate promising designs even under those circumstances. The approach is illustrated by application to some serotonergic agonists and chemokine antagonists.

  1. City Sustainable Development Evaluation Based on Hesitant Multiplicative Fuzzy Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaorong He

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable development evaluation is the basis of city sustainable development research, and effective evaluation is the foundation for guiding the formulation and implementation of sustainable development strategy. In this paper, we provided a new city sustainable development evaluation method called hesitant multiplicative fuzzy TODIM (HMF-TODIM. The main advantage of this method is that it can deal with the subjective preference information of the decision-makers. The comparison study of existing methods and HMF-TODIM is also carried out. Additionally, real case analysis is presented to show the validity and superiority of the proposed method. Research results in this paper can provide useful information for the construction of sustainable cities.

  2. Flocking of multiple mobile robots based on backstepping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Wenjie

    2011-04-01

    This paper considers the flocking of multiple nonholonomic wheeled mobile robots. Distributed controllers are proposed with the aid of backstepping techniques, results from graph theory, and singular perturbation theory. The proposed controllers can make the states of a group of robots converge to a desired geometric pattern whose centroid moves along a desired trajectory under the condition that the desired trajectory is available to a portion of the group of robots. Since communication delay is inevitable in distributed control, its effect on the performance of the closed-loop systems is analyzed. It is shown that the proposed controllers work well if communication delays are constant. To show effectiveness of the proposed controllers, simulation results are included.

  3. A multiple stage approach to mitigate the risks of telecommunication equipment under free air cooling conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dai Jun; Das, Diganta; Pecht, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Analyze the challenges posed by free air cooling (FAC). ► Present a multi-stage process to mitigate the risks of FAC. ► Propose a prognostics-based method to mitigate risks in data centers in operation. ► Present a case study to show the prognostics-based method implementation. - Abstract: The telecommunication industry is concerned about the energy costs of its operating infrastructure and the associated greenhouse gas emissions. At present, more than half of the total energy consumption of data centers is devoted to the power and cooling infrastructure that supports electronic equipment. One method of reducing energy consumption is an approach called “free air cooling,” where ambient air is used to cool the equipment directly, thereby reducing the energy consumed in cooling and conditioning the air. For example, Intel demonstrated free air cooling in a 10-megawatt (MW) data center, showing a reduction in energy use and savings of US$2.87 million annually. However, the impacts of this approach on the performance and reliability of telecommunication equipment need to be identified. The implementation of free air cooling changes the operating environment, including temperature and humidity, which may have a significant impact on the performance and reliability of telecom equipment. This paper discusses the challenges posed by free air cooling and presents a multi-stage process for evaluating and mitigating the potential risks arising from this new operating environment.

  4. Mapping multiple components of malaria risk for improved targeting of elimination interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Justin M; Le Menach, Arnaud; Pothin, Emilie; Eisele, Thomas P; Gething, Peter W; Eckhoff, Philip A; Moonen, Bruno; Schapira, Allan; Smith, David L

    2017-11-13

    There is a long history of considering the constituent components of malaria risk and the malaria transmission cycle via the use of mathematical models, yet strategic planning in endemic countries tends not to take full advantage of available disease intelligence to tailor interventions. National malaria programmes typically make operational decisions about where to implement vector control and surveillance activities based upon simple categorizations of annual parasite incidence. With technological advances, an enormous opportunity exists to better target specific malaria interventions to the places where they will have greatest impact by mapping and evaluating metrics related to a variety of risk components, each of which describes a different facet of the transmission cycle. Here, these components and their implications for operational decision-making are reviewed. For each component, related mappable malaria metrics are also described which may be measured and evaluated by malaria programmes seeking to better understand the determinants of malaria risk. Implementing tailored programmes based on knowledge of the heterogeneous distribution of the drivers of malaria transmission rather than only consideration of traditional metrics such as case incidence has the potential to result in substantial improvements in decision-making. As programmes improve their ability to prioritize their available tools to the places where evidence suggests they will be most effective, elimination aspirations may become increasingly feasible.

  5. Mindfulness-based cognitive therapy for multiple chemical sensitivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauge, Christian R; Bonde, Jens Peter E; Rasmussen, Alice

    2012-01-01

    no evidence-based treatments for MCS. Nevertheless, there is a substantial need for a treatment, because the condition can be severely disabling and can greatly reduce the quality of life (QOL) for those affected.In this study, we aim to assess the effects of a mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT...

  6. Risk-based plant performance indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boccio, J.L.; Azarm, M.A.; Hall, R.E.

    1991-01-01

    Tasked by the 1979 President's Commission on the Accident at Three Mile Island, the U.S. nuclear power industry has put into place a performance indicator program as one means for showing a demonstrable record of achievement. Largely through the efforts of the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO), plant performance data has, since 1983, been collected and analyzed to aid utility management in measuring their plants' performance progress. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has also developed a set of performance indicators. This program, conducted by NRC's Office for the Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD), is structured to present information on plant operational performance in a manner that could enhance the staff's ability to recognize changes in the safety performance. Both organizations recognized that performance indicators have limitations and could be subject to misinterpretation and misuse with the potential for an adverse impact on safety. This paper reports on performance indicators presently in use, e.g., unplanned automatic scrams, unplanned safety system actuation, safety system failures, etc., which are logically related to safety. But, a reliability/risk-based method for evaluating either individual indicators or an aggregated set of indicators is not yet available

  7. Risk factors for colorectal cancer in patients with multiple serrated polyps: a cross-sectional case series from genetics clinics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel D Buchanan

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Patients with multiple serrated polyps are at an increased risk for developing colorectal cancer (CRC. Recent reports have linked cigarette smoking with the subset of CRC that develops from serrated polyps. The aim of this work therefore was to investigate the association between smoking and the risk of CRC in high-risk genetics clinic patients presenting with multiple serrated polyps.We identified 151 Caucasian individuals with multiple serrated polyps including at least 5 outside the rectum, and classified patients into non-smokers, current or former smokers at the time of initial diagnosis of polyposis. Cases were individuals with multiple serrated polyps who presented with CRC. Controls were individuals with multiple serrated polyps and no CRC. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to estimate associations between smoking and CRC with adjustment for age at first presentation, sex and co-existing traditional adenomas, a feature that has been consistently linked with CRC risk in patients with multiple serrated polyps. CRC was present in 56 (37% individuals at presentation. Patients with at least one adenoma were 4 times more likely to present with CRC compared with patients without adenomas (OR = 4.09; 95%CI 1.27 to 13.14; P = 0.02. For females, the odds of CRC decreased by 90% in current smokers as compared to never smokers (OR = 0.10; 95%CI 0.02 to 0.47; P = 0.004 after adjusting for age and adenomas. For males, there was no relationship between current smoking and CRC. There was no statistical evidence of an association between former smoking and CRC for both sexes.A decreased odds for CRC was identified in females with multiple serrated polyps who currently smoke, independent of age and the presence of a traditional adenoma. Investigations into the biological basis for these observations could lead to non-smoking-related therapies being developed to decrease the risk of CRC and colectomy in these patients.

  8. SADA: Ecological Risk Based Decision Support System for Selective Remediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is freeware that implements terrestrial ecological risk assessment and yields a selective remediation design using its integral geographical information system, based on ecological and risk assessment inputs. Selective remediation ...

  9. Lifestyle-based risk model for fall risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Sannino, Giovanna; De Falco, Ivanoe; De Pietro, Guiseppe

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this study was to identify the explicit relationship between life-style and the risk of falling under the form of a mathematical model. Starting from some personal and behavioral information of a subject as, e.g., weight, height, age, data about physical activity habits, and concern about falling, the model would estimate the score of her/his Mini-Balance Evaluation Systems (Mini-BES) test. This score ranges within 0 and 28, and the lower its value the more likely the subj...

  10. Genetic Factors Associated with Risk and Disability Progression of Multiple Sclerosis in Slovak Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanysova Sandra

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of our study was to determine the relation of particular genetic variants in selected genes (GSTM1, GSTT1 null genotypes; rs1695 GSTP1; rs10735781 EVI5 to the risk of multiple sclerosis (MS development and find out the possible association with disease disability progression rate. Material and methods: Our study included 202 MS patients and 174 healthy control volunteers. MS patients were divided according to disability progression rate to three groups - slowly progressing, mid-rate progressing and rapidly progressing. All DNA samples were isolated from venous blood. Genotyping was performed by PCR-RFLP and multiplex PCR. Results: Our analysis showed that GSTT1 null genotype (OR 0.56; 95%CI 0.33 -0.95; p=0.04 and GSTM1, GSTT1 double null genotype (OR 0.32; 95%CI 0.14 - 0.74; p=0.006 are potentially protective in relation to MS. We observed similar result in GSTT1 null genotype in association with mid-rate progression (OR 0.48; 95%CI 0.24 - 0.97; p=0.05. Frequency of GSTM1 and GSTT1 double null genotype is significantly lower in subgroup of MS patients with progression rate defined as slow (OR 0.22; 95%CI 0.05 - 0.98; p=0.05 and middle (OR 0.33; 95%CI 0.11 - 0.99; p=0.045. We did not show any significant association of genetic changes rs1695 in GSTP1 and rs10735781 in EVI5 with MS or rate of disease progression. Conclusions: Genetic basis of multiple sclerosis is still not fully elucidated. Further research may clarify our results and confirm the value of studied factors for clinical practice.

  11. Running multiple marathons is not a risk factor for premature subclinical vascular impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pressler, Axel; Suchy, Christiane; Friedrichs, Tasja; Dallinger, Sophia; Grabs, Viola; Haller, Bernhard; Halle, Martin; Scherr, Johannes

    2017-08-01

    Background In contrast to the well-accepted benefits of moderate exercise, recent research has suggested potential deleterious effects of repeated marathon running on the cardiovascular system. We thus performed a comprehensive analysis of markers of subclinical vascular damage in a cohort of runners having finished multiple marathon races successfully. Design This was a prospective, observational study. Methods A total of 97 healthy male Munich marathon participants (mean age 44 ± 10 years) underwent detailed training history, cardiopulmonary exercise testing for assessment of peak oxygen uptake, ultrasound for assessment of intima-media-thickness as well as non-invasive assessments of ankle-brachial index, augmentation index, pulse wave velocity and reactive hyperaemia index. Results Runners had previously completed a median of eight (range 1-500) half marathons, six (1-100) full marathons and three (1-40) ultramarathons; mean weekly and annual training volumes were 59 ± 23 and 1639 ± 979 km. Mean peak oxygen uptake was 50 ± 8 ml/min/kg, and the Munich marathon was finished in 3:45 ± 0:32 h. Runners showed normal mean values for intima-media-thickness (0.60 ± 0.14 mm), ankle-brachial index (1.2 ± 0.1), augmentation index (17 ± 13%), pulse wave velocity (8.7 ± 1.4 cm/s) and reactive hyperaemia index (1.96 ± 0.50). Age was significantly and independently associated with intima-media-thickness ( r = 0.531; p running multiple marathon races did not pose an additional risk factor for premature subclinical vascular impairment beyond age.

  12. Risk of Debt-Based Financing in Indonesian Islamic Banking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kharisya Ayu Effendi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to know the risk of debt-based financing in Islamic banking in Indonesia by using an accounting based calculation, those are NPF analysis, Credit risk Z-score and Altman Z-score. This study is telling about the risk of debt-based finacing on Indonesian Islamic banking using an accounting based measurement, those are NPF analysis, Credit Risk Z-score analysis and Altman Z-score analysis. The data was obtained from 2011 to 2015 from the website of each bank. The result is a risk on debt-based financing on Indonesian Islamic banking is low. The measurement using 3 accounting based measurement tool gives a consistent result, that is Indonesian Islamic banking use a debt-based financing have a high financial stability and a low risk.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v9i2.4821

  13. Vision-Based Interest Point Extraction Evaluation in Multiple Environments

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    McKeehan, Zachary D

    2008-01-01

    Computer-based vision is becoming a primary sensor mechanism in many facets of real world 2-D and 3-D applications, including autonomous robotics, augmented reality, object recognition, motion tracking, and biometrics...

  14. Model-based monitoring of rotors with multiple coexisting faults

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossner, Markus

    2015-01-01

    Monitoring systems are applied to many rotors, but only few monitoring systems can separate coexisting errors and identify their quantity. This research project solves this problem using a combination of signal-based and model-based monitoring. The signal-based part performs a pre-selection of possible errors; these errors are further separated with model-based methods. This approach is demonstrated for the errors unbalance, bow, stator-fixed misalignment, rotor-fixed misalignment and roundness errors. For the model-based part, unambiguous error definitions and models are set up. The Ritz approach reduces the model order and therefore speeds up the diagnosis. Identification algorithms are developed for the different rotor faults. Hereto, reliable damage indicators and proper sub steps of the diagnosis have to be defined. For several monitoring problems, measuring both deflection and bearing force is very useful. The monitoring system is verified by experiments on an academic rotor test rig. The interpretation of the measurements requires much knowledge concerning the dynamics of the rotor. Due to the model-based approach, the system can separate errors with similar signal patterns and identify bow and roundness error online at operation speed. [de

  15. The term 'risk' and its evaluation bases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brueckner, R.

    1976-01-01

    The term risk, the risk itself and its application for radiation exposure in practised medicine is presented from the following points of view: Life expectation, susceptibility to sickness and permanent inability to work, impaired professional and earning capacity, work accident and sickness. (HP) [de

  16. Network-based identification of biomarkers coexpressed with multiple pathways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Nancy Lan; Wan, Ying-Wooi

    2014-01-01

    Unraveling complex molecular interactions and networks and incorporating clinical information in modeling will present a paradigm shift in molecular medicine. Embedding biological relevance via modeling molecular networks and pathways has become increasingly important for biomarker identification in cancer susceptibility and metastasis studies. Here, we give a comprehensive overview of computational methods used for biomarker identification, and provide a performance comparison of several network models used in studies of cancer susceptibility, disease progression, and prognostication. Specifically, we evaluated implication networks, Boolean networks, Bayesian networks, and Pearson's correlation networks in constructing gene coexpression networks for identifying lung cancer diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers. The results show that implication networks, implemented in Genet package, identified sets of biomarkers that generated an accurate prediction of lung cancer risk and metastases; meanwhile, implication networks revealed more biologically relevant molecular interactions than Boolean networks, Bayesian networks, and Pearson's correlation networks when evaluated with MSigDB database.

  17. Multiple-Factor Based Sparse Urban Travel Time Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinyan Zhu

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The prediction of travel time is challenging given the sparseness of real-time traffic data and the uncertainty of travel, because it is influenced by multiple factors on the congested urban road networks. In our paper, we propose a three-layer neural network from big probe vehicles data incorporating multi-factors to estimate travel time. The procedure includes the following three steps. First, we aggregate data according to the travel time of a single taxi traveling a target link on working days as traffic flows display similar traffic patterns over a weekly cycle. We then extract feature relationships between target and adjacent links at 30 min interval. About 224,830,178 records are extracted from probe vehicles. Second, we design a three-layer artificial neural network model. The number of neurons in input layer is eight, and the number of neurons in output layer is one. Finally, the trained neural network model is used for link travel time prediction. Different factors are included to examine their influence on the link travel time. Our model is verified using historical data from probe vehicles collected from May to July 2014 in Wuhan, China. The results show that we could obtain the link travel time prediction results using the designed artificial neural network model and detect the influence of different factors on link travel time.

  18. Rank-based model selection for multiple ions quantum tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guţă, Mădălin; Kypraios, Theodore; Dryden, Ian

    2012-01-01

    The statistical analysis of measurement data has become a key component of many quantum engineering experiments. As standard full state tomography becomes unfeasible for large dimensional quantum systems, one needs to exploit prior information and the ‘sparsity’ properties of the experimental state in order to reduce the dimensionality of the estimation problem. In this paper we propose model selection as a general principle for finding the simplest, or most parsimonious explanation of the data, by fitting different models and choosing the estimator with the best trade-off between likelihood fit and model complexity. We apply two well established model selection methods—the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC)—two models consisting of states of fixed rank and datasets such as are currently produced in multiple ions experiments. We test the performance of AIC and BIC on randomly chosen low rank states of four ions, and study the dependence of the selected rank with the number of measurement repetitions for one ion states. We then apply the methods to real data from a four ions experiment aimed at creating a Smolin state of rank 4. By applying the two methods together with the Pearson χ 2 test we conclude that the data can be suitably described with a model whose rank is between 7 and 9. Additionally we find that the mean square error of the maximum likelihood estimator for pure states is close to that of the optimal over all possible measurements. (paper)

  19. Microseismic Monitoring Design Optimization Based on Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovaleva, Y.; Tamimi, N.; Ostadhassan, M.

    2017-12-01

    Borehole microseismic monitoring of hydraulic fracture treatments of unconventional reservoirs is a widely used method in the oil and gas industry. Sometimes, the quality of the acquired microseismic data is poor. One of the reasons for poor data quality is poor survey design. We attempt to provide a comprehensive and thorough workflow, using multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), to optimize planning micriseismic monitoring. So far, microseismic monitoring has been used extensively as a powerful tool for determining fracture parameters that affect the influx of formation fluids into the wellbore. The factors that affect the quality of microseismic data and their final results include average distance between microseismic events and receivers, complexity of the recorded wavefield, signal-to-noise ratio, data aperture, etc. These criteria often conflict with each other. In a typical microseismic monitoring, those factors should be considered to choose the best monitoring well(s), optimum number of required geophones, and their depth. We use MDCA to address these design challenges and develop a method that offers an optimized design out of all possible combinations to produce the best data acquisition results. We believe that this will be the first research to include the above-mentioned factors in a 3D model. Such a tool would assist companies and practicing engineers in choosing the best design parameters for future microseismic projects.

  20. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... with prudent use of resources while maintaining acceptable system performance. High-risk category units are selected for testing by identification of the presence of specific high-risk factor(s), while disregarding other factors that might also influence the risk. On this basis we argue that the most...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

  1. Multiple-region directed functional connectivity based on phase delays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goelman, Gadi; Dan, Rotem

    2017-03-01

    Network analysis is increasingly advancing the field of neuroimaging. Neural networks are generally constructed from pairwise interactions with an assumption of linear relations between them. Here, a high-order statistical framework to calculate directed functional connectivity among multiple regions, using wavelet analysis and spectral coherence has been presented. The mathematical expression for 4 regions was derived and used to characterize a quartet of regions as a linear, combined (nonlinear), or disconnected network. Phase delays between regions were used to obtain network's temporal hierarchy and directionality. The validity of the mathematical derivation along with the effects of coupling strength and noise on its outcomes were studied by computer simulations of the Kuramoto model. The simulations demonstrated correct directionality for a large range of coupling strength and low sensitivity to Gaussian noise compared with pairwise coherences. The analysis was applied to resting-state fMRI data of 40 healthy young subjects to characterize the ventral visual system, motor system and default mode network (DMN). It was shown that the ventral visual system was predominantly composed of linear networks while the motor system and the DMN were composed of combined (nonlinear) networks. The ventral visual system exhibits its known temporal hierarchy, the motor system exhibits center ↔ out hierarchy and the DMN has dorsal ↔ ventral and anterior ↔ posterior organizations. The analysis can be applied in different disciplines such as seismology, or economy and in a variety of brain data including stimulus-driven fMRI, electrophysiology, EEG, and MEG, thus open new horizons in brain research. Hum Brain Mapp 38:1374-1386, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Iodine-based contrast media, multiple myeloma and monoclonal gammopathies: literature review and ESUR Contrast Media Safety Committee guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stacul, Fulvio; Bertolotto, Michele; Thomsen, Henrik S; Pozzato, Gabriele; Ugolini, Donatella; Bellin, Marie-France; Bongartz, Georg; Clement, Olivier; Heinz-Peer, Gertraud; van der Molen, Aart; Reimer, Peter; Webb, Judith A W

    2018-02-01

    Many radiologists and clinicians still consider multiple myeloma (MM) and monoclonal gammopathies (MG) a contraindication for using iodine-based contrast media. The ESUR Contrast Media Safety Committee performed a systematic review of the incidence of post-contrast acute kidney injury (PC-AKI) in these patients. A systematic search in Medline and Scopus databases was performed for renal function deterioration studies in patients with MM or MG following administration of iodine-based contrast media. Data collection and analysis were performed according to the PRISMA statement 2009. Eligibility criteria and methods of analysis were specified in advance. Cohort and case-control studies reporting changes in renal function were included. Thirteen studies were selected that reported 824 iodine-based contrast medium administrations in 642 patients with MM or MG, in which 12 unconfounded cases of PC-AKI were found (1.6 %). The majority of patients had intravenous urography with high osmolality ionic contrast media after preparatory dehydration and purgation. MM and MG alone are not risk factors for PC-AKI. However, the risk of PC-AKI may become significant in dehydrated patients with impaired renal function. Hypercalcaemia may increase the risk of kidney damage, and should be corrected before contrast medium administration. Assessment for Bence-Jones proteinuria is not necessary. • Monoclonal gammopathies including multiple myeloma are a large spectrum of disorders. • In monoclonal gammopathy with normal renal function, PC-AKI risk is not increased. • Renal function is often reduced in myeloma, increasing the risk of PC-AKI. • Correction of hypercalcaemia is necessary in myeloma before iodine-based contrast medium administration. • Bence-Jones proteinuria assessment in myeloma is unnecessary before iodine-based contrast medium administration.

  3. Behavioural analytics: Beyond risk-based MFA

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Dlamini, Thandokuhle M

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available ]. [16] Verizon, “2016 Data Breach Investigations Report: 89% of breaches had a financial or espionage motive”; http://www.verizonenterprise.com/resources/reports/rp_DBIR_2016_ Report_en_xg.pdf; 2016, accessed [15 August 2016]. [17] S. Ragan, “Linkedin... data breach blamed for multiple secondary compromises”; CSO Online; http://www.csoonline.com/article/3086942/security/linkedin-data- breach-blamed-for-multiple-secondary-compromises.html; 2016, accessed [15 August 2016]. [18] E. Zolfagharifard and E...

  4. Decimal multiplication using compressor based-BCD to binary converter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sasidhar Mukkamala

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work is to implement a scalable decimal to binary converter from 8 to 64 bits (i.e 2-digit to 16-digit using parallel architecture. The proposed converters, along with binary coded decimal (BCD adder and binary to BCD converters, are used in parallel implementation of Urdhva Triyakbhyam (UT-based 32-bit BCD multiplier. To increase the performance, compressor circuits were used in converters and multiplier. The designed hardware circuits were verified by behavioural and post layout simulations. The implementation was carried out using Virtex-6 Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA and Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC with 90-nm technology library platforms. The results on FPGA shows that compressor based converters and multipliers produced less amount of propagation delay with a slight increase of hardware resources. In case of ASIC implementation, a compressor based converter delay is equivalent to conventional converter with a slight increase of gate count. However, the reduction of delay is evident in case of compressor based multiplier.

  5. Contaminant classification using cosine distances based on multiple conventional sensors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shuming; Che, Han; Smith, Kate; Chang, Tian

    2015-02-01

    Emergent contamination events have a significant impact on water systems. After contamination detection, it is important to classify the type of contaminant quickly to provide support for remediation attempts. Conventional methods generally either rely on laboratory-based analysis, which requires a long analysis time, or on multivariable-based geometry analysis and sequence analysis, which is prone to being affected by the contaminant concentration. This paper proposes a new contaminant classification method, which discriminates contaminants in a real time manner independent of the contaminant concentration. The proposed method quantifies the similarities or dissimilarities between sensors' responses to different types of contaminants. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated using data from contaminant injection experiments in a laboratory and compared with a Euclidean distance-based method. The robustness of the proposed method was evaluated using an uncertainty analysis. The results show that the proposed method performed better in identifying the type of contaminant than the Euclidean distance based method and that it could classify the type of contaminant in minutes without significantly compromising the correct classification rate (CCR).

  6. Knowledge representation to support reasoning based on multiple models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillam, April; Seidel, Jorge P.; Parker, Alice C.

    1990-01-01

    Model Based Reasoning is a powerful tool used to design and analyze systems, which are often composed of numerous interactive, interrelated subsystems. Models of the subsystems are written independently and may be used together while they are still under development. Thus the models are not static. They evolve as information becomes obsolete, as improved artifact descriptions are developed, and as system capabilities change. Researchers are using three methods to support knowledge/data base growth, to track the model evolution, and to handle knowledge from diverse domains. First, the representation methodology is based on having pools, or types, of knowledge from which each model is constructed. In addition information is explicit. This includes the interactions between components, the description of the artifact structure, and the constraints and limitations of the models. The third principle we have followed is the separation of the data and knowledge from the inferencing and equation solving mechanisms. This methodology is used in two distinct knowledge-based systems: one for the design of space systems and another for the synthesis of VLSI circuits. It has facilitated the growth and evolution of our models, made accountability of results explicit, and provided credibility for the user community. These capabilities have been implemented and are being used in actual design projects.

  7. Ascaris phylogeny based on multiple whole mtDNA genomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nejsum, Peter; Hawash, Mohamed B F; Betson, Martha

    2016-01-01

    and C) of human and pig Ascaris based on partial cox1 sequences. In the present study, we selected major haplotypes from these different clusters to characterize their whole mitochondrial genomes for phylogenetic analysis. We also undertook coalescent simulations to investigate the evolutionary history...

  8. An Augmented Multiple-Protease-Based Human Phosphopeptide Atlas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giansanti, Piero; Aye, Thin Thin; van den Toorn, Henk; Peng, Mao; van Breukelen, Bas; Heck, Albert J R

    2015-01-01

    Although mass-spectrometry-based screens enable thousands of protein phosphorylation sites to be monitored simultaneously, they often do not cover important regulatory sites. Here, we hypothesized that this is due to the fact that nearly all large-scale phosphoproteome studies are initiated by

  9. Mindfulness-based cognitive therapy to treat multiple chemical sensitivities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovbjerg, S; Hauge, Christian Riis; Rasmussen, Alice

    2012-01-01

    of an 8-week mindfulness-based cognitive therapy program (MBCT) for adults with MCS and to evaluate possible effects on psychological distress and illness perception. The study design was a randomized clinical trial. The MBCT programme comprised 8 weekly sessions of 2½ hours. Forty-two adults were...

  10. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  11. Trends in the prevalence, risk and pregnancy outcome of multiple births with congenital anomaly

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boyle, B; McConkey, R; Garne, E

    2013-01-01

    To assess the public health consequences of the rise in multiple births with respect to congenital anomalies.......To assess the public health consequences of the rise in multiple births with respect to congenital anomalies....

  12. A New Classification Approach Based on Multiple Classification Rules

    OpenAIRE

    Zhongmei Zhou

    2014-01-01

    A good classifier can correctly predict new data for which the class label is unknown, so it is important to construct a high accuracy classifier. Hence, classification techniques are much useful in ubiquitous computing. Associative classification achieves higher classification accuracy than some traditional rule-based classification approaches. However, the approach also has two major deficiencies. First, it generates a very large number of association classification rules, especially when t...

  13. Process-based project proposal risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alok Kumar

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We all are aware of the organizational omnipresence. Projects within the organizations are ubiquitous too. Projects achieve their goals successfully if they are planned, scheduled, controlled and implemented well. The project lifecycle of initiating, planning, scheduling, controlling and implementing are very well-planned by project managers and the organizations. Successful projects have well-developed risk management plans to deal with situations impacting projects. Like any other organisation, a university does try to access funds for different purposes too. For such organisations, running a project is not the issue, rather getting a project proposal approved to fund a project is the key. Project proposal processing is done by the nodal office in every organisation. Usually, these nodal offices help in administration and submission of a project proposal for accessing funds. Seldom are these nodal project offices within the organizations facilitate a project proposal approval by proactively reaching out to the project managers. And as project managers prepare project proposals, little or no attention is made to prepare a project proposal risk plan so as to maximise project acquisition. Risk plans are submitted while preparing proposals but these risk plans cater to a requirement to address actual projects upon approval. Hence, a risk management plan for project proposal is either missing or very little effort is made to treat the risks inherent in project acquisition. This paper is an integral attempt to highlight the importance of risk treatment for project proposal stage as an extremely important step to preparing the risk management plan made for projects corresponding to their lifecycle phases. Several tools and techniques have been proposed in the paper to help and guide either the project owner (proposer or the main organisational unit responsible for project management. Development of tools and techniques to further enhance project

  14. Air Quality Monitoring: Risk-Based Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, John T.

    2009-01-01

    Air monitoring is secondary to rigid control of risks to air quality. Air quality monitoring requires us to target the credible residual risks. Constraints on monitoring devices are severe. Must transition from archival to real-time, on-board monitoring. Must provide data to crew in a way that they can interpret findings. Dust management and monitoring may be a major concern for exploration class missions.

  15. Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums : Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, Paul F.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

  16. Optical multiple-image encryption based on multiplane phase retrieval and interference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Wen; Chen, Xudong

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new method for optical multiple-image encryption based on multiplane phase retrieval and interference. An optical encoding system is developed in the Fresnel domain. A phase-only map is iteratively extracted based on a multiplane phase retrieval algorithm, and multiple plaintexts are simultaneously encrypted. Subsequently, the extracted phase-only map is further encrypted into two phase-only masks based on a non-iterative interference algorithm. During image decryption, the advantages and security of the proposed optical cryptosystem are analyzed. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the validity of the proposed optical multiple-image encryption method

  17. RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization

    OpenAIRE

    Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Niedrite, Laila; Strazdina, Renate; Wangler, Benkt

    2011-01-01

    Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement “good-enough security‿ but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based Requirements Prioritization method (RiskREP) that extends misuse case-based methods with IT architecture based risk assessment and countermeasure definition and prioritization. Countermeasure prioritizati...

  18. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  19. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  20. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  1. Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

    1981-07-01

    Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected

  2. Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

    1981-07-01

    Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected. Respondents were selected according to a purposive sampling strategy.

  3. The East London glaucoma prediction score: web-based validation of glaucoma risk screening tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen, Cook; Benjamin, Longo-Mbenza

    2013-01-01

    AIM It is difficult for Optometrists and General Practitioners to know which patients are at risk. The East London glaucoma prediction score (ELGPS) is a web based risk calculator that has been developed to determine Glaucoma risk at the time of screening. Multiple risk factors that are available in a low tech environment are assessed to provide a risk assessment. This is extremely useful in settings where access to specialist care is difficult. Use of the calculator is educational. It is a free web based service. Data capture is user specific. METHOD The scoring system is a web based questionnaire that captures and subsequently calculates the relative risk for the presence of Glaucoma at the time of screening. Three categories of patient are described: Unlikely to have Glaucoma; Glaucoma Suspect and Glaucoma. A case review methodology of patients with known diagnosis is employed to validate the calculator risk assessment. RESULTS Data from the patient records of 400 patients with an established diagnosis has been captured and used to validate the screening tool. The website reports that the calculated diagnosis correlates with the actual diagnosis 82% of the time. Biostatistics analysis showed: Sensitivity = 88%; Positive predictive value = 97%; Specificity = 75%. CONCLUSION Analysis of the first 400 patients validates the web based screening tool as being a good method of screening for the at risk population. The validation is ongoing. The web based format will allow a more widespread recruitment for different geographic, population and personnel variables. PMID:23550097

  4. System identification via sparse multiple kernel-based regularization using sequential convex optimization techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Tianshi; Andersen, Martin Skovgaard; Ljung, Lennart

    2014-01-01

    Model estimation and structure detection with short data records are two issues that receive increasing interests in System Identification. In this paper, a multiple kernel-based regularization method is proposed to handle those issues. Multiple kernels are conic combinations of fixed kernels...

  5. Joint Angle and Frequency Estimation Using Multiple-Delay Output Based on ESPRIT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xudong, Wang

    2010-12-01

    This paper presents a novel ESPRIT algorithm-based joint angle and frequency estimation using multiple-delay output (MDJAFE). The algorithm can estimate the joint angles and frequencies, since the use of multiple output makes the estimation accuracy greatly improved when compared with a conventional algorithm. The useful behavior of the proposed algorithm is verified by simulations.

  6. CanPrevent: a telephone-delivered intervention to reduce multiple behavioural risk factors for colorectal cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hawkes Anna L

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This pilot study aimed to test the acceptability and short-term effectiveness of a telephone-delivered multiple health behaviour change intervention for relatives of colorectal cancer survivors. Methods A community-based sample of 22 first-degree relatives of colorectal cancer survivors were recruited via a media release. Data were collected at baseline and at six weeks (post-intervention. Outcome measures included health behaviours (physical activity, television viewing, diet, alcohol, body mass index, waist circumference and smoking, health-related quality of life (Short Form-36 and perceived colorectal cancer risk. Intervention satisfaction levels were also measured. The intervention included six telephone health coaching sessions, a participant handbook and a pedometer. It focused on behavioural risk factors for colorectal cancer [physical activity, diet (red and processed meat consumption, fruit and vegetable intake, alcohol, weight management and smoking], and colorectal cancer risk. Results From baseline to six weeks, improvements were observed for minutes moderate-vigorous physical activity (150.7 minutes, processed meat intake (−1.2 serves/week, vegetable intake (1 serve/day, alcohol intake (−0.4 standard drinks/day, body mass index (−1.4 kg/m2, and waist circumference (−5.1 cm. Improvements were also observed for physical (3.3 and mental (4.4 health-related quality of life. Further, compared with baseline, participants were more likely to meet Australian recommendations post-intervention for: moderate-vigorous physical activity (27.3 vs 59.1%; fruit intake (68.2 vs 81.8%; vegetable intake (4.6 vs 18.2%; alcohol consumption (59.1 vs 72.7%; body mass index (31.8 vs 45.5% and waist circumference (18.2 vs 27.3%. At six weeks participants were more likely to believe a diagnosis of CRC was related to family history, and there was a decrease in their perceived risk of developing CRC in their lifetime following

  7. Risk assessment and model for community-based construction ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    It, therefore, becomes necessary to systematically manage uncertainty in community-based construction in order to increase the likelihood of meeting project objectives using necessary risk management strategies. Risk management, which is an iterative process due to the dynamic nature of many risks, follows three main ...

  8. Multiple pregnancies achieved with IVF/ICSI and risk of specific congenital malformations: a meta-analysis of cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Zan; Chen, Letao; Yang, Tubao; Yu, Hong; Wang, Hua; Qin, Jiabi

    2018-04-01

    Studies comparing risk of specific congenital malformations (CM) between multiple pregnancies resulting from IVF/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) and those conceived naturally report conflicting results; furthermore, there is a lack of a complete overview. This meta-analysis aimed to address which types of CM are increased in IVF/ICSI multiple pregnancies compared with those conceived naturally. All studies testing the association between IVF/ICSI multiple pregnancies and specific CM identified in various databases were considered. The literature search yielded 856 records, of which 21 cohort studies were included for analysis. Overall, multiple pregnancies achieved with IVF/ICSI experienced a significantly higher risk of chromosomal defects (relative risk [RR] = 1.36; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.77), urogenital (RR = 1.18; 95% CI: 1.03-1.36) and circulatory (RR = 1.22; 95% CI: 1.01-1.47) system malformations. However, the remaining specific CM, such as cleft lip and/or palate, eye, ear, face and neck, respiratory, musculoskeletal, nervous and digestive system malformations, were similar in the two groups. No substantial heterogeneity was observed for most outcomes except for digestive (P = 0.094; I 2 = 38.3%) and circulatory (P = 0.070; I 2 = 35.2%) system malformations. These findings provide additional information on risks of IVF/ICSI for use when counselling patients. Copyright © 2018 Reproductive Healthcare Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Multiple independent variants at the TERT locus are associated with telomere length and risks of breast and ovarian cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bojesen, Stig E.; Pooley, Karen A.; Johnatty, Sharon E.; Beesley, Jonathan; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Tyrer, Jonathan P.; Edwards, Stacey L.; Pickett, Hilda A.; Shen, Howard C.; Smart, Chanel E.; Hillman, Kristine M.; Mai, Phuong L.; Lawrenson, Kate; Stutz, Michael D.; Lu, Yi; Karevan, Rod; Woods, Nicholas; Johnston, Rebecca L.; French, Juliet D.; Chen, Xiaoqing; Weischer, Maren; Nielsen, Sune F.; Maranian, Melanie J.; Ghoussaini, Maya; Ahmed, Shahana; Baynes, Caroline; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Wang, Qin; Dennis, Joe; McGuffog, Lesley; Barrowdale, Daniel; Lee, Andrew; Healey, Sue; Lush, Michael; Tessier, Daniel C.; Vincent, Daniel; Bacot, Françis; Vergote, Ignace; Lambrechts, Sandrina; Despierre, Evelyn; Risch, Harvey A.; González-Neira, Anna; Rossing, Mary Anne; Pita, Guillermo; Doherty, Jennifer A.; Alvarez, Nuria; Larson, Melissa C.; Fridley, Brooke L.; Schoof, Nils; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Cicek, Mine S.; Peto, Julian; Kalli, Kimberly R.; Broeks, Annegien; Armasu, Sebastian M.; Schmidt, Marjanka K.; Braaf, Linde M.; Winterhoff, Boris; Nevanlinna, Heli; Konecny, Gottfried E.; Lambrechts, Diether; Rogmann, Lisa; Guénel, Pascal; Teoman, Attila; Milne, Roger L.; Garcia, Joaquin J.; Cox, Angela; Shridhar, Vijayalakshmi; Burwinkel, Barbara; Marme, Frederik; Hein, Rebecca; Sawyer, Elinor J.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Andrulis, Irene L.; Moysich, Kirsten B.; Hopper, John L.; Odunsi, Kunle; Lindblom, Annika; Giles, Graham G.; Brenner, Hermann; Simard, Jacques; Lurie, Galina; Fasching, Peter A.; Carney, Michael E.; Radice, Paolo; Wilkens, Lynne R.; Swerdlow, Anthony; Goodman, Marc T.; Brauch, Hiltrud; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Hillemanns, Peter; Winqvist, Robert; Dürst, Matthias; Devilee, Peter; Runnebaum, Ingo; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Mannermaa, Arto; Butzow, Ralf; Bogdanova, Natalia V.; Dörk, Thilo; Pelttari, Liisa M.; Zheng, Wei; Leminen, Arto; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Bunker, Clareann H.; Kristensen, Vessela; Ness, Roberta B.; Muir, Kenneth; Edwards, Robert; Meindl, Alfons; Heitz, Florian; Matsuo, Keitaro; du Bois, Andreas; Wu, Anna H.; Harter, Philipp; teo, Soo-Hwang; Schwaab, Ira; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Blot, William; Hosono, Satoyo; Kang, Daehee; Nakanishi, Toru; Hartman, Mikael; Yatabe, Yasushi; Hamann, Ute; Karlan, Beth Y.; Sangrajrang, Suleeporn; Kjaer, Susanne Krüger; Gaborieau, Valerie; Jensen, Allan; Eccles, Diana; Høgdall, Estrid; Shen, Chen-Yang; Brown, Judith; Woo, Yin Ling; Shah, Mitul; Azmi, Mat Adenan Noor; Luben, Robert; Omar, Siti Zawiah; Czene, Kamila; Vierkant, Robert A.; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Flyger, Henrik; Vachon, Celine; Olson, Janet E.; Wang, Xianshu; Levine, Douglas A.; Rudolph, Anja; Weber, Rachel Palmieri; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Iversen, Edwin; Nickels, Stefan; Schildkraut, Joellen M.; Silva, Isabel Dos Santos; Cramer, Daniel W.; Gibson, Lorna; Terry, Kathryn L.; Fletcher, Olivia; Vitonis, Allison F.; van der Schoot, C. Ellen; Poole, Elizabeth M.; Hogervorst, Frans B. L.; Tworoger, Shelley S.; Liu, Jianjun; Bandera, Elisa V.; Li, Jingmei; Olson, Sara H.; Humphreys, Keith; Orlow, Irene; Blomqvist, Carl; Rodriguez-Rodriguez, Lorna; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Salvesen, Helga B.; Muranen, Taru A.; Wik, Elisabeth; Brouwers, Barbara; Krakstad, Camilla; Wauters, Els; Halle, Mari K.; Wildiers, Hans; Kiemeney, Lambertus A.; Mulot, Claire; Aben, Katja K.; Laurent-Puig, Pierre; Altena, Anne Mvan; Truong, Thérèse; Massuger, Leon F. A. G.; Benitez, Javier; Pejovic, Tanja; Perez, Jose Ignacio Arias; Hoatlin, Maureen; Zamora, M. Pilar; Cook, Linda S.; Balasubramanian, Sabapathy P.; Kelemen, Linda E.; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Le, Nhu D.; Sohn, Christof; Brooks-Wilson, Angela; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael J.; Miller, Nicola; Cybulski, Cezary; Henderson, Brian E.; Menkiszak, Janusz; Schumacher, Fredrick; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Le Marchand, Loic; Yang, Hannah P.; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Glendon, Gord; Engelholm, Svend Aage; Knight, Julia A.; Høgdall, Claus K.; Apicella, Carmel; Gore, Martin; Tsimiklis, Helen; Song, Honglin; Southey, Melissa C.; Jager, Agnes; den Ouweland, Ans M. Wvan; Brown, Robert; Martens, John W. M.; Flanagan, James M.; Kriege, Mieke; Paul, James; Margolin, Sara; Siddiqui, Nadeem; Severi, Gianluca; Whittemore, Alice S.; Baglietto, Laura; McGuire, Valerie; Stegmaier, Christa; Sieh, Weiva; Müller, Heiko; Arndt, Volker; Labrèche, France; Gao, Yu-Tang; Goldberg, Mark S.; Yang, Gong; Dumont, Martine; McLaughlin, John R.; Hartmann, Arndt; Ekici, Arif B.; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Phelan, Catherine M.; Lux, Michael P.; Permuth-Wey, Jenny; Peissel, Bernard; Sellers, Thomas A.; Ficarazzi, Filomena; Barile, Monica; Ziogas, Argyrios; Ashworth, Alan; Gentry-Maharaj, Aleksandra; Jones, Michael; Ramus, Susan J.; Orr, Nick; Menon, Usha; Pearce, Celeste L.; Brüning, Thomas; Pike, Malcolm C.; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Lissowska, Jolanta; Figueroa, Jonine; Kupryjanczyk, Jolanta; Chanock, Stephen J.; Dansonka-Mieszkowska, Agnieszka; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Rzepecka, Iwona K.; Pylkäs, Katri; Bidzinski, Mariusz; Kauppila, Saila; Hollestelle, Antoinette; Seynaeve, Caroline; Tollenaar, Rob A. E. M.; Durda, Katarzyna; Jaworska, Katarzyna; Hartikainen, Jaana M.; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Kataja, Vesa; Antonenkova, Natalia N.; Long, Jirong; Shrubsole, Martha; Deming-Halverson, Sandra; Lophatananon, Artitaya; Siriwanarangsan, Pornthep; Stewart-Brown, Sarah; Ditsch, Nina; Lichtner, Peter; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Ito, Hidemi; Iwata, Hiroji; Tajima, Kazuo; Tseng, Chiu-Chen; Stram, Daniel O.; van den Berg, David; Yip, Cheng Har; Ikram, M. Kamran; teh, Yew-Ching; Cai, Hui; Lu, Wei; Signorello, Lisa B.; Cai, Qiuyin; Noh, Dong-Young; Yoo, Keun-Young; Miao, Hui; Iau, Philip Tsau-Choong; teo, Yik Ying; McKay, James; Shapiro, Charles; Ademuyiwa, Foluso; Fountzilas, George; Hsiung, Chia-Ni; Yu, Jyh-Cherng; Hou, Ming-Feng; Healey, Catherine S.; Luccarini, Craig; Peock, Susan; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Peterlongo, Paolo; Rebbeck, Timothy R.; Piedmonte, Marion; Singer, Christian F.; Friedman, Eitan; Thomassen, Mads; Offit, Kenneth; Hansen, Thomas V. O.; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Szabo, Csilla I.; Blanco, Ignacio; Garber, Judy; Narod, Steven A.; Weitzel, Jeffrey N.; Montagna, Marco; Olah, Edith; Godwin, Andrew K.; Yannoukakos, Drakoulis; Goldgar, David E.; Caldes, Trinidad; Imyanitov, Evgeny N.; Tihomirova, Laima; Arun, Banu K.; Campbell, Ian; Mensenkamp, Arjen R.; van Asperen, Christi J.; van Roozendaal, Kees E. P.; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Collée, J. Margriet; Oosterwijk, Jan C.; Hooning, Maartje J.; Rookus, Matti A.; van der Luijt, Rob B.; Os, Theo A. Mvan; Evans, D. Gareth; Frost, Debra; Fineberg, Elena; Barwell, Julian; Walker, Lisa; Kennedy, M. John; Platte, Radka; Davidson, Rosemarie; Ellis, Steve D.; Cole, Trevor; Bressac-de Paillerets, Brigitte; Buecher, Bruno; Damiola, Francesca; Faivre, Laurence; Frenay, Marc; Sinilnikova, Olga M.; Caron, Olivier; Giraud, Sophie; Mazoyer, Sylvie; Bonadona, Valérie; Caux-Moncoutier, Virginie; Toloczko-Grabarek, Aleksandra; Gronwald, Jacek; Byrski, Tomasz; Spurdle, Amanda B.; Bonanni, Bernardo; Zaffaroni, Daniela; Giannini, Giuseppe; Bernard, Loris; Dolcetti, Riccardo; Manoukian, Siranoush; Arnold, Norbert; Engel, Christoph; Deissler, Helmut; Rhiem, Kerstin; Niederacher, Dieter; Plendl, Hansjoerg; Sutter, Christian; Wappenschmidt, Barbara; Borg, Ake; Melin, Beatrice; Rantala, Johanna; Soller, Maria; Nathanson, Katherine L.; Domchek, Susan M.; Rodriguez, Gustavo C.; Salani, Ritu; Kaulich, Daphne Gschwantler; tea, Muy-Kheng; Paluch, Shani Shimon; Laitman, Yael; Skytte, Anne-Bine; Kruse, Torben A.; Jensen, Uffe Birk; Robson, Mark; Gerdes, Anne-Marie; Ejlertsen, Bent; Foretova, Lenka; Savage, Sharon A.; Lester, Jenny; Soucy, Penny; Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B.; Olswold, Curtis; Cunningham, Julie M.; Slager, Susan; Pankratz, Vernon S.; Dicks, Ed; Lakhani, Sunil R.; Couch, Fergus J.; Hall, Per; Monteiro, Alvaro N. A.; Gayther, Simon A.; Pharoah, Paul D. P.; Reddel, Roger R.; Goode, Ellen L.; Greene, Mark H.; Easton, Douglas F.; Berchuck, Andrew; Antoniou, Antonis C.; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Dunning, Alison M.

    2013-01-01

    TERT-locus SNPs and leukocyte telomere measures are reportedly associated with risks of multiple cancers. Using the Illumina custom genotyping array iCOGs, we analyzed ∼480 SNPs at the TERT locus in breast (n = 103,991), ovarian (n = 39,774) and BRCA1 mutation carrier (n = 11,705) cancer cases and

  10. Fine-mapping identifies multiple prostate cancer risk loci at 5p15, one of which associates with TERT expression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kote-Jarai, Zsofia; Saunders, Edward J; Leongamornlert, Daniel A

    2013-01-01

    Associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at 5p15 and multiple cancer types have been reported. We have previously shown evidence for a strong association between prostate cancer (PrCa) risk and rs2242652 at 5p15, intronic in the telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) gene that...

  11. No evidence that polymorphisms of the vanishing white matter disease genes are risk factors in multiple sclerosis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pronk, J.C.; Scheper, G.C.; Andel, R.J.; van Berkel, C.G.M.; Polman, C.H.; Uitdehaag, B.M.J.; van der Knaap, M.S.

    2008-01-01

    Febrile infections are known to cause exacerbations in the white matter disorders 'vanishing white matter' (VWM) and multiple sclerosis (MS). We hypothesized that polymorphisms in EIF2B1-5, the genes involved in VWM, might be risk factors for the development of MS or temperature sensitivity in

  12. Risk factors for fecal colonization with multiple distinct strains of Escherichia coli among long-term care facility residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lautenbach, Ebbing; Tolomeo, Pam; Black, Nicole; Maslow, Joel N

    2009-05-01

    Of 49 long-term care facility residents, 21 (43%) were colonized with 2 or more distinct strains of Escherichia coli. There were no significant risk factors for colonization with multiple strains of E. coli. These results suggest that future efforts to efficiently identify the diversity of colonizing strains will be challenging.

  13. Modeling freedom from progression for standard-risk medulloblastoma: a mathematical tumor control model with multiple modes of failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brodin, Nils Patrik; Vogelius, Ivan R.; Bjørk-Eriksson, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    As pediatric medulloblastoma (MB) is a relatively rare disease, it is important to extract the maximum information from trials and cohort studies. Here, a framework was developed for modeling tumor control with multiple modes of failure and time-to-progression for standard-risk MB, using published...

  14. Multiple independent variants at the TERT locus are associated with telomere length and risks of breast and ovarian cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bojesen, Stig Egil; Pooley, Karen A; Johnatty, Sharon E

    2013-01-01

    TERT-locus SNPs and leukocyte telomere measures are reportedly associated with risks of multiple cancers. Using the Illumina custom genotyping array iCOGs, we analyzed ∼480 SNPs at the TERT locus in breast (n = 103,991), ovarian (n = 39,774) and BRCA1 mutation carrier (n = 11,705) cancer cases...

  15. Risk-based maintenance-Techniques and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arunraj, N.S.; Maiti, J.

    2007-01-01

    Plant and equipment, however well designed, will not remain safe or reliable if it is not maintained. The general objective of the maintenance process is to make use of the knowledge of failures and accidents to achieve the possible safety with the lowest possible cost. The concept of risk-based maintenance was developed to inspect the high-risk components usually with greater frequency and thoroughness and to maintain in a greater manner, to achieve tolerable risk criteria. Risk-based maintenance methodology provides a tool for maintenance planning and decision making to reduce the probability of failure of equipment and the consequences of failure. In this paper, the risk analysis and risk-based maintenance methodologies were identified and classified into suitable classes. The factors affecting the quality of risk analysis were identified and analyzed. The applications, input data and output data were studied to understand their functioning and efficiency. The review showed that there is no unique way to perform risk analysis and risk-based maintenance. The use of suitable techniques and methodologies, careful investigation during the risk analysis phase, and its detailed and structured results are necessary to make proper risk-based maintenance decisions

  16. Clustering economies based on multiple criteria decision making techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mansour Momeni

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available One of the primary concerns on many countries is to determine different important factors affecting economic growth. In this paper, we study some factors such as unemployment rate, inflation ratio, population growth, average annual income, etc to cluster different countries. The proposed model of this paper uses analytical hierarchy process (AHP to prioritize the criteria and then uses a K-mean technique to cluster 59 countries based on the ranked criteria into four groups. The first group includes countries with high standards such as Germany and Japan. In the second cluster, there are some developing countries with relatively good economic growth such as Saudi Arabia and Iran. The third cluster belongs to countries with faster rates of growth compared with the countries located in the second group such as China, India and Mexico. Finally, the fourth cluster includes countries with relatively very low rates of growth such as Jordan, Mali, Niger, etc.

  17. Ecological correlates of multiple sexual partnerships among adolescents and young adults in urban Cape Town: a cumulative risk factor approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muchiri, Evans; Odimegwu, Clifford; Banda, Pamela; Ntoimo, Lorreta; Adedini, Sunday

    2017-07-01

    Studies in South Africa have reported unsafe levels of risky sexual behvaiours among adolescents and young adults, with the country reporting the highest burden of HIV/AIDS globally, as well as a high rate of teenage pregnancy. While determinants of risky sexual behaviours have been investigated for factors occurring at the individual and household levels, not fully explored in the literature is the effect of community level factors. Furthermore, it is unclear whether risk factors occurring within the ecology of adolescents and young adults act cumulatively to influence their sexual practices. This article aims to address this knowledge gap using a case study of the Cape Area Panel Study of adolescents and young adults in urban Cape Town, South Africa. The ecological framework was adopted to guide the selection of risk factors at the individual, household, and community levels. Multivariate linear discriminant function analyses were used to select significant risk factors for multiple sexual partnerships and used to produce risk indices for the respondents. The cumulative risk approach was applied to test whether significant risk factors acted cumulatively. Findings point to the importance of ecological factors in influencing outcomes of multiple sexual partnerships among respondents and further demonstrate that ecological risk factors may act cumulatively. These findings are important for South Africa that is grappling with teenage pregnancy and disproportionate HIV epidemic among the youth.

  18. A Knowledge-Based Model of Audit Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Dhar, Vasant; Lewis, Barry; Peters, James

    1988-01-01

    Within the academic and professional auditing communities, there has been growing concern about how to accurately assess the various risks associated with performing an audit. These risks are difficult to conceptualize in terms of numeric estimates. This article discusses the development of a prototype computational model (computer program) that assesses one of the major audit risks -- inherent risk. This program bases most of its inferencing activities on a qualitative model of a typical bus...

  19. Big data based fraud risk management at Alibaba

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Jidong; Tao, Ye; Wang, Haoran; Chen, Tao

    2015-01-01

    With development of mobile internet and finance, fraud risk comes in all shapes and sizes. This paper is to introduce the Fraud Risk Management at Alibaba under big data. Alibaba has built a fraud risk monitoring and management system based on real-time big data processing and intelligent risk models. It captures fraud signals directly from huge amount data of user behaviors and network, analyzes them in real-time using machine learning, and accurately predicts the bad users and transactions....

  20. Determining the Relationship between U.S. County-Level Adult Obesity Rate and Multiple Risk Factors by PLS Regression and SVM Modeling Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chau-Kuang Chen

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Data from the Center for Disease Control (CDC has shown that the obesity rate doubled among adults within the past two decades. This upsurge was the result of changes in human behavior and environment. Partial least squares (PLS regression and support vector machine (SVM models were conducted to determine the relationship between U.S. county-level adult obesity rate and multiple risk factors. The outcome variable was the adult obesity rate. The 23 risk factors were categorized into four domains of the social ecological model including biological/behavioral factor, socioeconomic status, food environment, and physical environment. Of the 23 risk factors related to adult obesity, the top eight significant risk factors with high normalized importance were identified including physical inactivity, natural amenity, percent of households receiving SNAP benefits, and percent of all restaurants being fast food. The study results were consistent with those in the literature. The study showed that adult obesity rate was influenced by biological/behavioral factor, socioeconomic status, food environment, and physical environment embedded in the social ecological theory. By analyzing multiple risk factors of obesity in the communities, may lead to the proposal of more comprehensive and integrated policies and intervention programs to solve the population-based problem.

  1. Impact of high-intensity concurrent training on cardiovascular risk factors in persons with multiple sclerosis - pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keytsman, Charly; Hansen, Dominique; Wens, Inez; O Eijnde, Bert

    2017-10-27

    High-intensity concurrent training positively affects cardiovascular risk factors. Because this was never investigated in multiple sclerosis, the present pilot study explored the impact of this training on cardiovascular risk factors in this population. Before and after 12 weeks of high-intense concurrent training (interval and strength training, 5 sessions per 2 weeks, n = 16) body composition, resting blood pressure and heart rate, 2-h oral glucose tolerance (insulin sensitivity, glycosylated hemoglobin, blood glucose and insulin concentrations), blood lipids (high- and low-density lipoprotein, total cholesterol, triglyceride levels) and C-reactive protein were analyzed. Twelve weeks of high-intense concurrent training significantly improved resting heart rate (-6%), 2-h blood glucose concentrations (-13%) and insulin sensitivity (-24%). Blood pressure, body composition, blood lipids and C-reactive protein did not seem to be affected. Under the conditions of this pilot study, 12 weeks of concurrent high-intense interval and strength training improved resting heart rate, 2-h glucose and insulin sensitivity in multiple sclerosis but did not affect blood C-reactive protein levels, blood pressure, body composition and blood lipid profiles. Further, larger and controlled research investigating the effects of high-intense concurrent training on cardiovascular risk factors in multiple sclerosis is warranted. Implications for rehabilitation High-intensity concurrent training improves cardiovascular fitness. This pilot study explores the impact of this training on cardiovascular risk factors in multiple sclerosis. Despite the lack of a control group, high-intense concurrent training does not seem to improve cardiovascular risk factors in multiple sclerosis.

  2. Risk Analysis Method Based on FMEA for Transmission Line in Lightning Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    You-Yuan WANG

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Failure rate of transmission line and reliability of power system are significantly affected by Lightning meteorological factor. In view of the complexity and variability of Lightning meteorological factors, this paper presents lightning trip-out rate model of transmission line in considering distribution of ground flash density and lightning day hours. Meanwhile, presents a failure rate model of transmission line in different condition, and a risk analysis method for transmission line considering multiple risk factors based on risk quantification. This method takes Lightning meteorological factor as the main evaluation standard, and establishes risk degree evaluation system for transmission line including another five evaluation standard. Put forward the risk indicators by quantify the risk factors based on experience date of transmission line in service. Based on the risk indexes comprehensive evaluation is conducted, and the evaluation result closer to practice is achieved, providing basis for transmission line risk warning and maintenance strategy. Through the risk analysis for 220 kV transmission line in a certain power supply bureau, the effectiveness of the proposed method is validated.

  3. Patterns of multiple health risk-behaviours in university students and their association with mental health: application of latent class analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwan, M Y; Arbour-Nicitopoulos, K P; Duku, E; Faulkner, G

    2016-08-01

    University and college campuses may be the last setting where it is possible to comprehensively address the health of a large proportion of the young adult population. It is important that health promoters understand the collective challenges students are facing, and to better understand the broader lifestyle behavioural patterning evident during this life stage. The purpose of this study was to examine the clustering of modifiable health-risk behaviours and to explore the relationship between these identified clusters and mental health outcomes among a large Canadian university sample. Undergraduate students (n = 837; mean age = 21 years) from the University of Toronto completed the National College Health Assessment survey. The survey consists of approximately 300 items, including assessments of student health status, mental health and health-risk behaviours. Latent class analysis was used to identify patterning based on eight salient health-risk behaviours (marijuana use, other illicit drug use, risky sex, smoking, binge drinking, poor diet, physical inactivity, and insufficient sleep). A three-class model based on student behavioural patterns emerged: "typical," "high-risk" and "moderately healthy." Results also found high-risk students reporting significantly higher levels of stress than typical students (χ2(1671) = 7.26, p Students with the highest likelihood of engaging in multiple health-risk behaviours reported poorer mental health, particularly as it relates to stress. Although these findings should be interpreted with caution due to the 28% response rate, they do suggest that interventions targeting specific student groups with similar patterning of multiple health-risk behaviours may be needed.

  4. Patterns of multiple health risk-behaviours in university students and their association with mental health: application of latent class analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Y. Kwan

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available University and college campuses may be the last setting where it is possible to comprehensively address the health of a large proportion of the young adult population. It is important that health promoters understand the collective challenges students are facing, and to better understand the broader lifestyle behavioural patterning evident during this life stage. The purpose of this study was to examine the clustering of modifiable health-risk behaviours and to explore the relationship between these identified clusters and mental health outcomes among a large Canadian university sample. Methods: Undergraduate students (n = 837; mean age = 21 years from the University of Toronto completed the National College Health Assessment survey. The survey consists of approximately 300 items, including assessments of student health status, mental health and health-risk behaviours. Latent class analysis was used to identify patterning based on eight salient health-risk behaviours (marijuana use, other illicit drug use, risky sex, smoking, binge drinking, poor diet, physical inactivity, and insufficient sleep. Results: A three-class model based on student behavioural patterns emerged: "typical," "high-risk" and "moderately healthy." Results also found high-risk students reporting significantly higher levels of stress than typical students (χ2(1671 = 7.26, p < .01. Conclusion: Students with the highest likelihood of engaging in multiple health-risk behaviours reported poorer mental health, particularly as it relates to stress. Although these findings should be interpreted with caution due to the 28% response rate, they do suggest that interventions targeting specific student groups with similar patterning of multiple health-risk behaviours may be needed.

  5. A METEOROLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT METHOD FOR POWER LINES BASED ON GIS AND MULTI-SENSOR INTEGRATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Lin

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Power lines, exposed in the natural environment, are vulnerable to various kinds of meteorological factors. Traditional research mainly deals with the influence of a single meteorological condition on the power line, which lacks of comprehensive effects evaluation and analysis of the multiple meteorological factors. In this paper, we use multiple meteorological monitoring data obtained by multi-sensors to implement the meteorological risk assessment and early warning of power lines. Firstly, we generate meteorological raster map from discrete meteorological monitoring data using spatial interpolation. Secondly, the expert scoring based analytic hierarchy process is used to compute the power line risk index of all kinds of meteorological conditions and establish the mathematical model of meteorological risk. By adopting this model in raster calculator of ArcGIS, we will have a raster map showing overall meteorological risks for power line. Finally, by overlaying the power line buffer layer to that raster map, we will get to know the exact risk index around a certain part of power line, which will provide significant guidance for power line risk management. In the experiment, based on five kinds of observation data gathered from meteorological stations in Guizhou Province of China, including wind, lightning, rain, ice, temperature, we carry on the meteorological risk analysis for the real power lines, and experimental results have proved the feasibility and validity of our proposed method.

  6. Multiple Beta Spectrum Analysis Method Based on Spectrum Fitting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Uk Jae; Jung, Yun Song; Kim, Hee Reyoung [UNIST, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    When the sample of several mixed radioactive nuclides is measured, it is difficult to divide each nuclide due to the overlapping of spectrums. For this reason, simple mathematical analysis method for spectrum analysis of the mixed beta ray source has been studied. However, existing research was in need of more accurate spectral analysis method as it has a problem of accuracy. The study will describe the contents of the separation methods of the mixed beta ray source through the analysis of the beta spectrum slope based on the curve fitting to resolve the existing problem. The fitting methods including It was understood that sum of sine fitting method was the best one of such proposed methods as Fourier, polynomial, Gaussian and sum of sine to obtain equation for distribution of mixed beta spectrum. It was shown to be the most appropriate for the analysis of the spectrum with various ratios of mixed nuclides. It was thought that this method could be applied to rapid spectrum analysis of the mixed beta ray source.

  7. An evaluation of multiple annealing and looping based genome amplification using a synthetic bacterial community

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Yong; Gao, Zhaoming; Xu, Ying; Li, Guangyu; He, Lisheng; Qian, Peiyuan

    2016-01-01

    -generation-sequencing technology. Using a synthetic bacterial community, the amplification efficiency of the Multiple Annealing and Looping Based Amplification Cycles (MALBAC) kit that is originally developed to amplify the single-cell genomic DNA of mammalian organisms

  8. A putative Alzheimer's disease risk allele in PCK1 influences brain atrophy in multiple sclerosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zongqi Xia

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Brain atrophy and cognitive dysfunction are neurodegenerative features of Multiple Sclerosis (MS. We used a candidate gene approach to address whether genetic variants implicated in susceptibility to late onset Alzheimer's Disease (AD influence brain volume and cognition in MS patients.MS subjects were genotyped for five single nucleotide polymorphisms (snps associated with susceptibility to AD: PICALM, CR1, CLU, PCK1, and ZNF224. We assessed brain volume using Brain Parenchymal Fraction (BPF measurements obtained from Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI data and cognitive function using the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT. Genotypes were correlated with cross-sectional BPF and SDMT scores using linear regression after adjusting for sex, age at symptom onset, and disease duration. 722 MS patients with a mean (±SD age at enrollment of 41 (±10 years were followed for 44 (±28 months. The AD risk-associated allele of a non-synonymous SNP in the PCK1 locus (rs8192708G is associated with a smaller average brain volume (P=0.0047 at the baseline MRI, but it does not impact our baseline estimate of cognition. PCK1 is additionally associated with higher baseline T2-hyperintense lesion volume (P=0.0088. Finally, we provide technical validation of our observation in a subset of 641 subjects that have more than one MRI study, demonstrating the same association between PCK1 and smaller average brain volume (P=0.0089 at the last MRI visit.Our study provides suggestive evidence for greater brain atrophy in MS patients bearing the PCK1 allele associated with AD-susceptibility, yielding new insights into potentially shared neurodegenerative process between MS and late onset AD.

  9. Gaze stability, dynamic balance and participation deficits in people with multiple sclerosis at fall-risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garg, Hina; Dibble, Leland E; Schubert, Michael C; Sibthorp, Jim; Foreman, K Bo; Gappmaier, Eduard

    2018-05-05

    Despite the common complaints of dizziness and demyelination of afferent or efferent pathways to and from the vestibular nuclei which may adversely affect the angular Vestibulo-Ocular Reflex (aVOR) and vestibulo-spinal function in persons with Multiple Sclerosis (PwMS), few studies have examined gaze and dynamic balance function in PwMS. 1) Determine the differences in gaze stability, dynamic balance and participation measures between PwMS and controls, 2) Examine the relationships between gaze stability, dynamic balance and participation. Nineteen ambulatory PwMS at fall-risk and 14 age-matched controls were recruited. Outcomes included (a) gaze stability [angular Vestibulo-Ocular Reflex (aVOR) gain (ratio of eye to head velocity); number of Compensatory Saccades (CS) per head rotation; CS latency; gaze position error; Coefficient of Variation (CV) of aVOR gain], (b) dynamic balance [Functional Gait Assessment, FGA; four square step test], and (c) participation [dizziness handicap inventory; activities-specific balance confidence scale]. Separate independent t-tests and Pearson's correlations were calculated. PwMS were age = 53 ± 11.7yrs and had 4.2 ± 3.3 falls/yr. PwMS demonstrated significant (pbalance and participation measures compared to controls. CV of aVOR gain and CS latency were significantly correlated with FGA. Deficits and correlations across a spectrum of disability measures highlight the relevance of gaze and dynamic balance assessment in PwMS. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Impact of genetic risk loci for multiple sclerosis on expression of proximal genes in patients

    KAUST Repository

    James, Tojo

    2018-01-06

    Despite advancements in genetic studies, it is difficult to understand and characterize the functional relevance of disease-associated genetic variants, especially in the context of a complex multifactorial disease such as Multiple Sclerosis (MS). Since a large proportion of expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) are context-specific, we performed RNA-Seq in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from MS patients (n=145) to identify eQTLs in regions centered on 109 MS risk SNPs and seven associated HLA variants. We identified 77 statistically significant eQTL associations, including pseudogenes and non-coding RNAs. Thirty-eight out of 40 testable eQTL effects were colocalised with the disease association signal. Since many eQTLs are tissue specific, we aimed to detail their significance in different cell types. Approximately 70% of the eQTLs were replicated and characterized in at least one major PBMC derived cell type. Furthermore, 40% of eQTLs were found to be more pronounced in MS patients compared to noninflammatory neurological diseases patients. In addition, we found two SNPs to be significantly associated with the proportions of three different cell types. Mapping to enhancer histone marks and predicted transcription factor binding sites added additional functional evidence for eight eQTL regions. As an example, we found that rs71624119, shared with three other autoimmune diseases and located in a primed enhancer (H3K4me1) with potential binding for STAT transcription factors, significantly associates with ANKRD55 expression. This study provides many novel and validated targets for future functional characterization of MS and other diseases.

  11. Principles of risk-based decision making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    United States. Coast Guard. Risk based decision-making guidelines

    2001-01-01

    ... original content in order to make this product more generically applicable and less Coast Guard specific. h s k assessment and risk management are important topics in industry and government. Because of limited resources and increasing demands for services, most organizations simply cannot continue business as usual. Even if resources are not dec...

  12. Internet-based screening for dementia risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Jason; Sullivan, Campbell; Burrell, Larry E; Rogerson, Mark; Anderson, Allan

    2013-01-01

    The Dementia Risk Assessment (DRA) is an online tool consisting of questions about known risk factors for dementia, a novel verbal memory test, and an informant report of cognitive decline. Its primary goal is to educate the public about dementia risk factors and encourage clinical evaluation where appropriate. In Study 1, more than 3,000 anonymous persons over age 50 completed the DRA about themselves; 1,000 people also completed proxy reports about another person. Advanced age, lower education, male sex, complaints of severe memory impairment, and histories of cerebrovascular disease, Parkinson's disease, and brain tumor all contributed significantly to poor memory performance. A high correlation was obtained between proxy-reported decline and actual memory test performance. In Study 2, 52 persons seeking first-time evaluation at dementia clinics completed the DRA prior to their visits. Their responses (and those of their proxy informants) were compared to the results of independent evaluation by geriatric neuropsychiatrists. The 30 patients found to meet criteria for probable Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia, or frontotemporal dementia differed on the DRA from the 22 patients without dementia (most other neuropsychiatric conditions). Scoring below criterion on the DRA's memory test had moderately high predictive validity for clinically diagnosed dementia. Although additional studies of larger clinical samples are needed, the DRA holds promise for wide-scale screening for dementia risk.

  13. Beyond Promotion-Based Store Switching: Antecedents and Consequences of Systematic Multiple-Store Shopping

    OpenAIRE

    Gijsbrechts, E.; Campo, K.; Nisol, P.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we demonstrate that single-purpose multiple store shopping is not only driven by opportunistic, promotion-based motivations, but may also be part of a longer term shopping planning process based on stable store characteristics.Starting from a utility-maximizing shopping behavior model, we find that consumers systematically visit multiple stores to take advantage of two types of store complementarity.With 'fixed cost complementarity', consumers alternate visits to highly preferr...

  14. Risk based rulemaking and design - Proceed with caution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zachariadis, Panos; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Kontovas, Christos A.

    2007-01-01

    The trend towards a risk based regulatory framework at IMO and within classification societies is expanding while some voices claim that a full ship risk based scantlings design approach can be immediately implementable. This paper attempts to clarify some widely used, but confusing to many, noti...

  15. Adolescents at risk of psychosis: a comparison of the "At risk mental state" and Multiple Complex Developmental Disorder

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sprong, M.

    2008-01-01

    Comparing vulnerability markers for psychosis in different high-risk populations will ultimately lead to more insight into the causes of the syndrome and a more accurate identification of at-risk individuals. This dissertation concentrated on the comparison of two groups of adolescents that are at

  16. In vitro fertilization and multiple pregnancies: an evidence-based analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this health technology policy assessment was to determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of IVF for infertility treatment, as well as the role of IVF in reducing the rate of multiple pregnancies. TARGET POPULATION AND CONDITION Typically defined as a failure to conceive after a year of regular unprotected intercourse, infertility affects 8% to 16% of reproductive age couples. The condition can be caused by disruptions at various steps of the reproductive process. Major causes of infertility include abnormalities of sperm, tubal obstruction, endometriosis, ovulatory disorder, and idiopathic infertility. Depending on the cause and patient characteristics, management options range from pharmacologic treatment to more advanced techniques referred to as assisted reproductive technologies (ART). ART include IVF and IVF-related procedures such as intra-cytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) and, according to some definitions, intra-uterine insemination (IUI), also known as artificial insemination. Almost invariably, an initial step in ART is controlled ovarian stimulation (COS), which leads to a significantly higher rate of multiple pregnancies after ART compared with that following natural conception. Multiple pregnancies are associated with a broad range of negative consequences for both mother and fetuses. Maternal complications include increased risk of pregnancy-induced hypertension, pre-eclampsia, polyhydramnios, gestational diabetes, fetal malpresentation requiring Caesarean section, postpartum haemorrhage, and postpartum depression. Babies from multiple pregnancies are at a significantly higher risk of early death, prematurity, and low birth weight, as well as mental and physical disabilities related to prematurity. Increased maternal and fetal morbidity leads to higher perinatal and neonatal costs of multiple pregnancies, as well as subsequent lifelong costs due to disabilities and an increased need for medical and social support

  17. Risk based technique for improving technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, I. S.; Jae, M. S.; Kim, B. S.; Hwang, S. W.; Kang, K. M.; Park, S. S.; Yu, Y. S.

    2001-03-01

    The objective of this study is to develop the systematic guidance for reviewing the documents associated with the changes of technical specifications. The work done in this fiscal year is the following : surveys in TS requirements, TS improvements and TS regulations in foreign countries as well as Korea, surveys on the state-of-the-art of RITSs and their use in Korea, development of a decision-making framework for both the licensee and the regulation agency, description of risk measures, assessment methodology on STI/AOT, and adverse effects caused by periodic maintenance, which are explained in appendix. The results of this study might contribute to enhancing the quality of the current technical specifications and contribute to preparing the risk informed regulation program using the decision-making framework developed in this study

  18. Multiple-Strain Approach and Probabilistic Modeling of Consumer Habits in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment: A Quantitative Assessment of Exposure to Staphylococcal Enterotoxin A in Raw Milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crotta, Matteo; Rizzi, Rita; Varisco, Giorgio; Daminelli, Paolo; Cunico, Elena Cosciani; Luini, Mario; Graber, Hans Ulrich; Paterlini, Franco; Guitian, Javier

    2016-03-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models are extensively applied to inform management of a broad range of food safety risks. Inevitably, QMRA modeling involves an element of simplification of the biological process of interest. Two features that are frequently simplified or disregarded are the pathogenicity of multiple strains of a single pathogen and consumer behavior at the household level. In this study, we developed a QMRA model with a multiple-strain approach and a consumer phase module (CPM) based on uncertainty distributions fitted from field data. We modeled exposure to staphylococcal enterotoxin A in raw milk in Lombardy; a specific enterotoxin production module was thus included. The model is adaptable and could be used to assess the risk related to other pathogens in raw milk as well as other staphylococcal enterotoxins. The multiplestrain approach, implemented as a multinomial process, allowed the inclusion of variability and uncertainty with regard to pathogenicity at the bacterial level. Data from 301 questionnaires submitted to raw milk consumers were used to obtain uncertainty distributions for the CPM. The distributions were modeled to be easily updatable with further data or evidence. The sources of uncertainty due to the multiple-strain approach and the CPM were identified, and their impact on the output was assessed by comparing specific scenarios to the baseline. When the distributions reflecting the uncertainty in consumer behavior were fixed to the 95th percentile, the risk of exposure increased up to 160 times. This reflects the importance of taking into consideration the diversity of consumers' habits at the household level and the impact that the lack of knowledge about variables in the CPM can have on the final QMRA estimates. The multiple-strain approach lends itself to use in other food matrices besides raw milk and allows the model to better capture the complexity of the real world and to be capable of geographical

  19. Risk-based decisionmaking in the DOE: Challenges and status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henry, C.J.; Alchowiak, J.; Moses, M.

    1995-01-01

    The primary mission of the Environmental Management Program is to protect human health and the environment, the first goal of which must be, to address urgent risks and threats. Another is to provide for a safe workplace. Without credible risk assessments and good risk management practices, the central environmental goals cannot be met. Principles for risk analysis which include principles for risk assessment, management, communication, and priority setting were adopted. As recommended, Environmental Management is using risk-based decision making in its budget process and in the implementation of its program. The challenges presented in using a risk-based Decision making process are to integrate risk assessment methods and cultural and social values so as to produce meaningful priorities. The different laws and regulations governing the Department define risk differently in implementing activities to protect human health and the environment, therefore, assumptions and judgements in risk analysis vary. Currently, the Environmental Management Program is developing and improving a framework to incorporate risk into the budget process and to link the budget, compliance requirements and risk reduction/pollution prevention activities

  20. Risk-based decisionmaking in the DOE: Challenges and status

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henry, C.J.; Alchowiak, J.; Moses, M. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-31

    The primary mission of the Environmental Management Program is to protect human health and the environment, the first goal of which must be, to address urgent risks and threats. Another is to provide for a safe workplace. Without credible risk assessments and good risk management practices, the central environmental goals cannot be met. Principles for risk analysis which include principles for risk assessment, management, communication, and priority setting were adopted. As recommended, Environmental Management is using risk-based decision making in its budget process and in the implementation of its program. The challenges presented in using a risk-based Decision making process are to integrate risk assessment methods and cultural and social values so as to produce meaningful priorities. The different laws and regulations governing the Department define risk differently in implementing activities to protect human health and the environment, therefore, assumptions and judgements in risk analysis vary. Currently, the Environmental Management Program is developing and improving a framework to incorporate risk into the budget process and to link the budget, compliance requirements and risk reduction/pollution prevention activities.

  1. Youth suicide attempts and the dose-response relationship to parental risk factors: a population-based study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, E; Goldney, R D; Beautrai, A L

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: There is a lack of specific knowledge about the dose-response effect of multiple parental risk factors for suicide attempts among children and adolescents. The aim of this study was to determine the dose-response effect of multiple parental risk factors on an offspring's risk for suic......BACKGROUND: There is a lack of specific knowledge about the dose-response effect of multiple parental risk factors for suicide attempts among children and adolescents. The aim of this study was to determine the dose-response effect of multiple parental risk factors on an offspring's risk...... for suicide attempt.MethodWe designed a population-based two-generation nested case-control study and used Danish register data. A population of 403 431 individuals born between 1983 and 1989 was sampled. Among these, 3465 (0.8%) were registered as having had a suicide attempt. Twenty controls were matched...... to each case and a link to the offspring's biological parents was established. RESULTS: There was a dose-response relationship between the number of exposures and the risk of suicide attempts, with the increased risk seeming to be a multiplicative effect. Parental suicide, suicide attempt, psychiatric...

  2. Network Diffusion-Based Prioritization of Autism Risk Genes Identifies Significantly Connected Gene Modules

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ettore Mosca

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Autism spectrum disorder (ASD is marked by a strong genetic heterogeneity, which is underlined by the low overlap between ASD risk gene lists proposed in different studies. In this context, molecular networks can be used to analyze the results of several genome-wide studies in order to underline those network regions harboring genetic variations associated with ASD, the so-called “disease modules.” In this work, we used a recent network diffusion-based approach to jointly analyze multiple ASD risk gene lists. We defined genome-scale prioritizations of human genes in relation to ASD genes from multiple studies, found significantly connected gene modules associated with ASD and predicted genes functionally related to ASD risk genes. Most of them play a role in synapsis and neuronal development and function; many are related to syndromes that can be in comorbidity with ASD and the remaining are involved in epigenetics, cell cycle, cell adhesion and cancer.

  3. Risk Analysis Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Maglev Train Bogie

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengxin Fan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The maglev bogie is the key subsystem for maglev train security. To ensure life and property security, it is essential to evaluate its risk level before its operation. In this paper, a combinational method of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed to assess hazards in a complex maglev bogie system associated with multiple subsystems’ failures. The very comprehensive identification of risk sources has been done by analyzing the structure of maglev bogie. Furthermore, based on the fuzzy theory, linguistic evaluation set is classified according to risk tolerance. The score of each risk factor is obtained by weighted sum of the result of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Our results show that the degree of maglev bogie’s risk is within the range of acceptability. The merits of this work facilitate finding the weak links and determining the maintenance of maglev bogie system.

  4. PENGARUH PELAKSANAAN RISK BASED INTERNAL AUDITING TERHADAP PENCEGAHAN FRAUD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rozmita Dewi Yuniarti Rozali

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to determine the effect of implementation of risk based internal auditing on fraud prevention on internal audit Inspection Office Bank BRI Bandung Region. The sample used by 18 internal auditors in Inspection Office of Bank BRI Bandung Region saturated sampling method. Based on calculation of simple regression analysis obtained result that every increase of implementation of risk based internal auditing (X will lead to increase fraud prevention (Y. It shows that there is a positive influence between the implementation of risk based internal auditing on fraud prevention on the internal audit of Inspection Office of Bank BRI Bandung Region.

  5. Equilibrium Selection with Risk Dominance in a Multiple-unit Unit Uniform Price Auction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boom, Anette

    This paper uses an adapted version of the linear tracing procedure, suggested by Harsanyi and Selten (1988), in order to discriminate between two types of multiple Nash equilibria. Equilibria of the same type are pay-off equivalent in the analysed multiple-unit unit price auction where two seller...

  6. Risk estimation of multiple recurrence and progression of non muscle invasive bladder carcinoma using new mathematical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luján, S; Santamaría, C; Pontones, J L; Ruiz-Cerdá, J L; Trassierra, M; Vera-Donoso, C D; Solsona, E; Jiménez-Cruz, F

    2014-12-01

    To apply new mathematical models according to Non Muscle Invasive Bladder Carcinoma (NMIBC) biological characteristics and enabling an accurate risk estimation of multiple recurrences and tumor progression. The classical Cox model is not valid for the assessment of this kind of events becausethe time betweenrecurrencesin the same patientmay be stronglycorrelated. These new models for risk estimation of recurrence/progression lead to individualized monitoring and treatment plan. 960 patients with primary NMIBC were enrolled. The median follow-up was 48.1 (3-160) months. Results obtained were validated in 240 patients from other center. Transurethral resection of the bladder (TURB) and random bladder biopsy were performed. Subsequently, adjuvant localized chemotherapy was performed. The variables analyzed were: number and tumor size, age, chemotherapy and histopathology. The endpoints were time to recurrence and time to progression. Cox model and its extensions were used as joint frailty model for multiple recurrence and progression. Model accuracy was calculated using Harrell's concordance index (c-index). 468 (48.8%) patients developed at least one tumor recurrence and tumor progression was reported in 52 (5.4%) patients. Variables for multiple-recurrence risk are: age, grade, number, size, treatment and the number of prior recurrences. All these together with age, stage and grade are the variables for progression risk. Concordance index was 0.64 and 0.85 for multiple recurrence and progression respectively. the high concordance reported besides to the validation process in external source, allow accurate multi-recurrence/progression risk estimation. As consequence, it is possible to schedule a follow-up and treatment individualized plan in new and recurrent NMCB cases. Copyright © 2014 AEU. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  7. Classification of Suicide Attempts through a Machine Learning Algorithm Based on Multiple Systemic Psychiatric Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jihoon Oh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Classification and prediction of suicide attempts in high-risk groups is important for preventing suicide. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the information from multiple clinical scales has classification power for identifying actual suicide attempts. Patients with depression and anxiety disorders (N = 573 were included, and each participant completed 31 self-report psychiatric scales and questionnaires about their history of suicide attempts. We then trained an artificial neural network classifier with 41 variables (31 psychiatric scales and 10 sociodemographic elements and ranked the contribution of each variable for the classification of suicide attempts. To evaluate the clinical applicability of our model, we measured classification performance with top-ranked predictors. Our model had an overall accuracy of 93.7% in 1-month, 90.8% in 1-year, and 87.4% in lifetime suicide attempts detection. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC was the highest for 1-month suicide attempts detection (0.93, followed by lifetime (0.89, and 1-year detection (0.87. Among all variables, the Emotion Regulation Questionnaire had the highest contribution, and the positive and negative characteristics of the scales similarly contributed to classification performance. Performance on suicide attempts classification was largely maintained when we only used the top five ranked variables for training (AUROC; 1-month, 0.75, 1-year, 0.85, lifetime suicide attempts detection, 0.87. Our findings indicate that information from self-report clinical scales can be useful for the classification of suicide attempts. Based on the reliable performance of the top five predictors alone, this machine learning approach could help clinicians identify high-risk patients in clinical settings.

  8. Classification of Suicide Attempts through a Machine Learning Algorithm Based on Multiple Systemic Psychiatric Scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Jihoon; Yun, Kyongsik; Hwang, Ji-Hyun; Chae, Jeong-Ho

    2017-01-01

    Classification and prediction of suicide attempts in high-risk groups is important for preventing suicide. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the information from multiple clinical scales has classification power for identifying actual suicide attempts. Patients with depression and anxiety disorders ( N  = 573) were included, and each participant completed 31 self-report psychiatric scales and questionnaires about their history of suicide attempts. We then trained an artificial neural network classifier with 41 variables (31 psychiatric scales and 10 sociodemographic elements) and ranked the contribution of each variable for the classification of suicide attempts. To evaluate the clinical applicability of our model, we measured classification performance with top-ranked predictors. Our model had an overall accuracy of 93.7% in 1-month, 90.8% in 1-year, and 87.4% in lifetime suicide attempts detection. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was the highest for 1-month suicide attempts detection (0.93), followed by lifetime (0.89), and 1-year detection (0.87). Among all variables, the Emotion Regulation Questionnaire had the highest contribution, and the positive and negative characteristics of the scales similarly contributed to classification performance. Performance on suicide attempts classification was largely maintained when we only used the top five ranked variables for training (AUROC; 1-month, 0.75, 1-year, 0.85, lifetime suicide attempts detection, 0.87). Our findings indicate that information from self-report clinical scales can be useful for the classification of suicide attempts. Based on the reliable performance of the top five predictors alone, this machine learning approach could help clinicians identify high-risk patients in clinical settings.

  9. A recommendation system for predicting risks across multiple business process instances

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Conforti, R.; Leoni, de M.; La Rosa, M.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Hofstede, ter A.H.M.

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a recommendation system that supports process participants in taking risk-informed decisions, with the goal of reducing risks that may arise during process execution. Risk reduction involves decreasing the likelihood and severity of a process fault from occurring. Given a

  10. A recommendation system for predicting risks across multiple business process instances

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Conforti, R.; Leoni, de M.; La Rosa, M.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Hofstede, ter A.H.M.

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a recommendation system that supports process participants in taking risk-informed decisions, with the goal of reducing risks that may arise during process execution. Risk reduction involves decreasing the likelihood and severity of a process fault from occurring. Given a

  11. Developing points-based risk-scoring systems in the presence of competing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Fine, Jason P

    2016-09-30

    Predicting the occurrence of an adverse event over time is an important issue in clinical medicine. Clinical prediction models and associated points-based risk-scoring systems are popular statistical methods for summarizing the relationship between a multivariable set of patient risk factors and the risk of the occurrence of an adverse event. Points-based risk-scoring systems are popular amongst physicians as they permit a rapid assessment of patient risk without the use of computers or other electronic devices. The use of such points-based risk-scoring systems facilitates evidence-based clinical decision making. There is a growing interest in cause-specific mortality and in non-fatal outcomes. However, when considering these types of outcomes, one must account for competing risks whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. We describe how points-based risk-scoring systems can be developed in the presence of competing events. We illustrate the application of these methods by developing risk-scoring systems for predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Code in the R statistical programming language is provided for the implementation of the described methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Caries risk assessment in schoolchildren - a form based on Cariogram® software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Nunes CABRAL

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Identifying caries risk factors is an important measure which contributes to best understanding of the cariogenic profile of the patient. The Cariogram® software provides this analysis, and protocols simplifying the method were suggested. Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine whether a newly developed Caries Risk Assessment (CRA form based on the Cariogram® software could classify schoolchildren according to their caries risk and to evaluate relationships between caries risk and the variables in the form. Material and Methods: 150 schoolchildren aged 5 to 7 years old were included in this survey. Caries prevalence was obtained according to International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS II. Information for filling in the form based on Cariogram® was collected clinically and from questionnaires sent to parents. Linear regression and a forward stepwise multiple regression model were applied to correlate the variables included in the form with the caries risk. Results: Caries prevalence, in primary dentition, including enamel and dentine carious lesions was 98.6%, and 77.3% when only dentine lesions were considered. Eighty-six percent of the children were classified as at moderate caries risk. The forward stepwise multiple regression model result was significant (R2=0.904; p<0.00001, showing that the most significant factors influencing caries risk were caries experience, oral hygiene, frequency of food consumption, sugar consumption and fluoride sources. Conclusion: The use of the form based on the Cariogram® software enabled classification of the schoolchildren at low, moderate and high caries risk. Caries experience, oral hygiene, frequency of food consumption, sugar consumption and fluoride sources are the variables that were shown to be highly correlated with caries risk.

  13. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations. By calculating the core-melt frequency for given configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Furthermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period

  14. Toward risk-based control of nuclear power plant configurations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Veseley, W.E.; Kim, I.S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Futhermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period. (orig.)

  15. Strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    A configuration, as used here, is a set of component operability or statuses that define the state of a nuclear power plant. Risk-based configuration control is the management of component configurations using a risk perspective to control risk and assure safety. If the component configurations that have high risk implications do not occur then the risk from the operation of nuclear power plants would be minimal. The control of component configurations, i.e., the management of component statuses, so that the risk from components being unavailable is minimized, becomes difficult because the status of a standby safety system component is often not apparent unless it is tested. In this paper, we discuss the strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control in nuclear power plants. In developing these strategies and criteria, the primary objective is to obtain more direct risk control but the added benefit is the effective use of plant resources. Implementation of such approaches can result in replacement/modification of parts of Technical Specifications. Specifically, the risk impact or safety impact of a configuration depends upon four factors: (1) The configuration components which are simultaneously down (i.e., inoperable); (2) the backup components which are known to be up (i.e., operable); (3) the duration of time the configuration exists (the outage time); and (4) the frequency at which the configuration occurs. Risk-based configuration control involves managing these factors using risk analyses and risk insights. In this paper, we discuss each of the factors and illustrate how they can be controlled. The information and the tools needed in implementing configuration control are also discussed. The risk-based calculation requirements in achieving the control are also delineated. 4 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

  16. Waste management project’s alternatives: A risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karmperis, Athanasios C.; Sotirchos, Anastasios; Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We examine the evaluation of a waste management project’s alternatives. ► We present a novel risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach. ► In the RBMCA the evaluation criteria are based on the quantitative risk analysis of the project’s alternatives. ► Correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers’ risk preferences is examined. ► Preference to the multi-criteria against the one-criterion evaluation process is discussed. - Abstract: This paper examines the evaluation of a waste management project’s alternatives through a quantitative risk analysis. Cost benefit analysis is a widely used method, in which the investments are mainly assessed through the calculation of their evaluation indicators, namely benefit/cost (B/C) ratios, as well as the quantification of their financial, technical, environmental and social risks. Herein, a novel approach in the form of risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) is introduced, which can be used by decision makers, in order to select the optimum alternative of a waste management project. Specifically, decision makers use multiple criteria, which are based on the cumulative probability distribution functions of the alternatives’ B/C ratios. The RBMCA system is used for the evaluation of a waste incineration project’s alternatives, where the correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers’ risk preferences is analyzed and useful conclusions are discussed.

  17. Obesity during childhood and adolescence increases susceptibility to multiple sclerosis after accounting for established genetic and environmental risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gianfrancesco, Milena A; Acuna, Brigid; Shen, Ling; Briggs, Farren B S; Quach, Hong; Bellesis, Kalliope H; Bernstein, Allan; Hedstrom, Anna K; Kockum, Ingrid; Alfredsson, Lars; Olsson, Tomas; Schaefer, Catherine; Barcellos, Lisa F

    2014-01-01

    To investigate the association between obesity and multiple sclerosis (MS) while accounting for established genetic and environmental risk factors. Participants included members of Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Plan, Northern California Region (KPNC) (1235 MS cases and 697 controls). Logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Body mass index (BMI) or body size was the primary predictor of each model. Both incident and prevalent MS cases were studied. In analyses stratified by gender, being overweight at ages 10 and 20 were associated with MS in females (pchildhood and adolescence obesity confer increased risk of MS in females beyond established heritable and environmental risk factors. Strong evidence for a dose-effect of BMI in 20s and MS was observed. The magnitude of BMI association with MS is as large as other known MS risk factors. Copyright © 2014 Asian Oceanian Association for the Study of Obesity. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Multiple Primary Cancer Monograph

    Science.gov (United States)

    To identify groups of cancer survivors that are at increased risk for multiple primary cancers, investigators led an effort to provide the first comprehensive population-based analysis of the risk of subsequent cancer in the U.S., resulting in a monograph.

  19. Stratifying empiric risk of schizophrenia among first degree relatives using multiple predictors in two independent Indian samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatia, Triptish; Gettig, Elizabeth A; Gottesman, Irving I; Berliner, Jonathan; Mishra, N N; Nimgaonkar, Vishwajit L; Deshpande, Smita N

    2016-12-01

    Schizophrenia (SZ) has an estimated heritability of 64-88%, with the higher values based on twin studies. Conventionally, family history of psychosis is the best individual-level predictor of risk, but reliable risk estimates are unavailable for Indian populations. Genetic, environmental, and epigenetic factors are equally important and should be considered when predicting risk in 'at risk' individuals. To estimate risk based on an Indian schizophrenia participant's family history combined with selected demographic factors. To incorporate variables in addition to family history, and to stratify risk, we constructed a regression equation that included demographic variables in addition to family history. The equation was tested in two independent Indian samples: (i) an initial sample of SZ participants (N=128) with one sibling or offspring; (ii) a second, independent sample consisting of multiply affected families (N=138 families, with two or more sibs/offspring affected with SZ). The overall estimated risk was 4.31±0.27 (mean±standard deviation). There were 19 (14.8%) individuals in the high risk group, 75 (58.6%) in the moderate risk and 34 (26.6%) in the above average risk (in Sample A). In the validation sample, risks were distributed as: high (45%), moderate (38%) and above average (17%). Consistent risk estimates were obtained from both samples using the regression equation. Familial risk can be combined with demographic factors to estimate risk for SZ in India. If replicated, the proposed stratification of risk may be easier and more realistic for family members. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  20. Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deriot, S.

    1992-10-01

    This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

  1. A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sitima Innocent

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

  2. A new multicriteria risk mapping approach based on a multiattribute frontier concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H; Ben-Haim, Yakov; Downing, Marla; Sapio, Frank; Siltanen, Marty

    2013-09-01

    Invasive species risk maps provide broad guidance on where to allocate resources for pest monitoring and regulation, but they often present individual risk components (such as climatic suitability, host abundance, or introduction potential) as independent entities. These independent risk components are integrated using various multicriteria analysis techniques that typically require prior knowledge of the risk components' importance. Such information is often nonexistent for many invasive pests. This study proposes a new approach for building integrated risk maps using the principle of a multiattribute efficient frontier and analyzing the partial order of elements of a risk map as distributed in multidimensional criteria space. The integrated risks are estimated as subsequent multiattribute frontiers in dimensions of individual risk criteria. We demonstrate the approach with the example of Agrilus biguttatus Fabricius, a high-risk pest that may threaten North American oak forests in the near future. Drawing on U.S. and Canadian data, we compare the performance of the multiattribute ranking against a multicriteria linear weighted averaging technique in the presence of uncertainties, using the concept of robustness from info-gap decision theory. The results show major geographic hotspots where the consideration of tradeoffs between multiple risk components changes integrated risk rankings. Both methods delineate similar geographical regions of high and low risks. Overall, aggregation based on a delineation of multiattribute efficient frontiers can be a useful tool to prioritize risks for anticipated invasive pests, which usually have an extremely poor prior knowledge base. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  3. Quantified Risk Ranking Model for Condition-Based Risk and Reliability Centered Maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra

    2017-06-01

    In the recent past, risk and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and risk. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for risk quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of risk is assessed using three risk coefficients. The likelihood risk coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract risk coefficient deduces risk influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third risk coefficient is called hazardous risk coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the risk is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic risks with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three risk coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The risk coefficients are statistically added to obtain final risk coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical model for risk assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.

  4. Risk Based Maintenance in Electricity Network Organisations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mehairjan, R.P.Y.

    2016-01-01

    Presently, maintenance management of assets in infrastructure utilities such as electricity, gas and water are widely undergoing changes towards new working environments. These are mainly driven against the background of stringent regulatory regimes, an ageing asset base, increased customer demands

  5. A Meta-analysis of Multiple Myeloma Risk Regions in African and European Ancestry Populations Identifies Putatively Functional Loci.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rand, Kristin A; Song, Chi; Dean, Eric; Serie, Daniel J; Curtin, Karen; Sheng, Xin; Hu, Donglei; Huff, Carol Ann; Bernal-Mizrachi, Leon; Tomasson, Michael H; Ailawadhi, Sikander; Singhal, Seema; Pawlish, Karen; Peters, Edward S; Bock, Cathryn H; Stram, Alex; Van Den Berg, David J; Edlund, Christopher K; Conti, David V; Zimmerman, Todd; Hwang, Amie E; Huntsman, Scott; Graff, John; Nooka, Ajay; Kong, Yinfei; Pregja, Silvana L; Berndt, Sonja I; Blot, William J; Carpten, John; Casey, Graham; Chu, Lisa; Diver, W Ryan; Stevens, Victoria L; Lieber, Michael R; Goodman, Phyllis J; Hennis, Anselm J M; Hsing, Ann W; Mehta, Jayesh; Kittles, Rick A; Kolb, Suzanne; Klein, Eric A; Leske, Cristina; Murphy, Adam B; Nemesure, Barbara; Neslund-Dudas, Christine; Strom, Sara S; Vij, Ravi; Rybicki, Benjamin A; Stanford, Janet L; Signorello, Lisa B; Witte, John S; Ambrosone, Christine B; Bhatti, Parveen; John, Esther M; Bernstein, Leslie; Zheng, Wei; Olshan, Andrew F; Hu, Jennifer J; Ziegler, Regina G; Nyante, Sarah J; Bandera, Elisa V; Birmann, Brenda M; Ingles, Sue A; Press, Michael F; Atanackovic, Djordje; Glenn, Martha J; Cannon-Albright, Lisa A; Jones, Brandt; Tricot, Guido; Martin, Thomas G; Kumar, Shaji K; Wolf, Jeffrey L; Deming Halverson, Sandra L; Rothman, Nathaniel; Brooks-Wilson, Angela R; Rajkumar, S Vincent; Kolonel, Laurence N; Chanock, Stephen J; Slager, Susan L; Severson, Richard K; Janakiraman, Nalini; Terebelo, Howard R; Brown, Elizabeth E; De Roos, Anneclaire J; Mohrbacher, Ann F; Colditz, Graham A; Giles, Graham G; Spinelli, John J; Chiu, Brian C; Munshi, Nikhil C; Anderson, Kenneth C; Levy, Joan; Zonder, Jeffrey A; Orlowski, Robert Z; Lonial, Sagar; Camp, Nicola J; Vachon, Celine M; Ziv, Elad; Stram, Daniel O; Hazelett, Dennis J; Haiman, Christopher A; Cozen, Wendy

    2016-12-01

    Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in European populations have identified genetic risk variants associated with multiple myeloma. We performed association testing of common variation in eight regions in 1,318 patients with multiple myeloma and 1,480 controls of European ancestry and 1,305 patients with multiple myeloma and 7,078 controls of African ancestry and conducted a meta-analysis to localize the signals, with epigenetic annotation used to predict functionality. We found that variants in 7p15.3, 17p11.2, 22q13.1 were statistically significantly (P ancestry and persons of European ancestry, and the variant in 3p22.1 was associated in European ancestry only. In a combined African ancestry-European ancestry meta-analysis, variation in five regions (2p23.3, 3p22.1, 7p15.3, 17p11.2, 22q13.1) was statistically significantly associated with multiple myeloma risk. In 3p22.1, the correlated variants clustered within the gene body of ULK4 Correlated variants in 7p15.3 clustered around an enhancer at the 3' end of the CDCA7L transcription termination site. A missense variant at 17p11.2 (rs34562254, Pro251Leu, OR, 1.32; P = 2.93 × 10 -7 ) in TNFRSF13B encodes a lymphocyte-specific protein in the TNF receptor family that interacts with the NF-κB pathway. SNPs correlated with the index signal in 22q13.1 cluster around the promoter and enhancer regions of CBX7 CONCLUSIONS: We found that reported multiple myeloma susceptibility regions contain risk variants important across populations, supporting the use of multiple racial/ethnic groups with different underlying genetic architecture to enhance the localization and identification of putatively functional alleles. A subset of reported risk loci for multiple myeloma has consistent effects across populations and is likely to be functional. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(12); 1609-18. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

  6. Multiple risk factors during pregnancy in South Africa: the need for a horizontal approach to perinatal care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomlinson, Mark; O'Connor, Mary J; le Roux, Ingrid M; Stewart, Jacqueline; Mbewu, Nokwanele; Harwood, Jessica; Rotheram-Borus, Mary Jane

    2014-06-01

    South African children's long-term health and well-being is jeopardized during their mothers' pregnancies by the intersecting epidemics of HIV, alcohol use, low birth weight (LBW; alcohol prior to knowing that they were pregnant, and 15 % had a previous childbirth with a LBW infant. Approximately 27 % of women had more than one risk factor: depressed mood was significantly associated with alcohol use and LBW, with a trend to significance with HIV+. In addition, alcohol use was significantly related to HIV+. These results suggest the importance of intervening across multiple risks to maternal and child health, and particularly with depression and alcohol use, to positively impact multiple maternal and infant outcomes.

  7. III: Use of biomarkers as Risk Indicators in Environmental Risk Assessment of oil based discharges offshore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M

    2017-06-01

    Offshore oil and gas activities are required not to cause adverse environmental effects, and risk based management has been established to meet environmental standards. In some risk assessment schemes, Risk Indicators (RIs) are parameters to monitor the development of risk affecting factors. RIs have not yet been established in the Environmental Risk Assessment procedures for management of oil based discharges offshore. This paper evaluates the usefulness of biomarkers as RIs, based on their properties, existing laboratory biomarker data and assessment methods. Data shows several correlations between oil concentrations and biomarker responses, and assessment principles exist that qualify biomarkers for integration into risk procedures. Different ways that these existing biomarkers and methods can be applied as RIs in a probabilistic risk assessment system when linked with whole organism responses are discussed. This can be a useful approach to integrate biomarkers into probabilistic risk assessment related to oil based discharges, representing a potential supplement to information that biomarkers already provide about environmental impact and risk related to these kind of discharges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Attending to Multiple Visual Streams: Interactions between Location-Based and Category-Based Attentional Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagioli, Sabrina; Macaluso, Emiliano

    2009-01-01

    Behavioral studies indicate that subjects are able to divide attention between multiple streams of information at different locations. However, it is still unclear to what extent the observed costs reflect processes specifically associated with spatial attention, versus more general interference due the concurrent monitoring of multiple streams of…

  9. Multiple classifier systems in texton-based approach for the classification of CT images of Lung

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gangeh, Mehrdad J.; Sørensen, Lauge; Shaker, Saher B.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we propose using texton signatures based on raw pixel representation along with a parallel multiple classifier system for the classification of emphysema in computed tomography images of the lung. The multiple classifier system is composed of support vector machines on the texton.......e., texton size and k value in k-means. Our results show that while aggregation of single decisions by SVMs over various k values using multiple classifier systems helps to improve the results compared to single SVMs, combining over different texton sizes is not beneficial. The performance of the proposed...

  10. Cryptanalysis of the public key encryption based on multiple chaotic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Linhua

    2008-01-01

    Recently, Ranjan proposed a novel public key encryption technique based on multiple chaotic systems [Phys Lett 2005;95]. Unfortunately, Wang soon gave a successful attack on its special case based on Parseval's theorem [Wang K, Pei W, Zhou L, et al. Security of public key encryption technique based on multiple chaotic system. Phys Lett A, in press]. In this letter, we give an improved example which can avoid the attack and point out that Wang cannot find the essential drawback of the technique. However, further experimental result shows Ruanjan's encryption technique is inefficient, and detailed theoretic analysis shows that the complexity to break the cryptosystem is overestimated

  11. Impact of genetic risk loci for multiple sclerosis on expression of proximal genes in patients

    KAUST Repository

    James, Tojo; Lindé n, Magdalena; Morikawa, Hiromasa; Fernandes, Sunjay Jude; Ruhrmann, Sabrina; Huss, Mikael; Brandi, Maya; Piehl, Fredrik; Jagodic, Maja; Tegner, Jesper; Khademi, Mohsen; Olsson, Tomas; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kockum, Ingrid

    2018-01-01

    Despite advancements in genetic studies, it is difficult to understand and characterize the functional relevance of disease-associated genetic variants, especially in the context of a complex multifactorial disease such as Multiple Sclerosis (MS

  12. Estimating Engineering and Manufacturing Development Cost Risk Using Logistic and Multiple Regression

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bielecki, John

    2003-01-01

    .... Previous research has demonstrated the use of a two-step logistic and multiple regression methodology to predicting cost growth produces desirable results versus traditional single-step regression...

  13. Genetic risk and a primary role for cell-mediated immune mechanisms in multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sawcer, Stephen; Hellenthal, Garrett; Pirinen, Matti

    2011-01-01

    Multiple sclerosis is a common disease of the central nervous system in which the interplay between inflammatory and neurodegenerative processes typically results in intermittent neurological disturbance followed by progressive accumulation of disability. Epidemiological studies have shown that g...

  14. Risk Factors for Pneumonia in Ventilated Trauma Patients with Multiple Rib Fractures

    OpenAIRE

    Park, Hyun Oh; Kang, Dong Hoon; Moon, Seong Ho; Yang, Jun Ho; Kim, Sung Hwan; Byun, Joung Hun

    2017-01-01

    Background: Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is a common disease that may contribute to morbidity and mortality among trauma patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). This study evaluated the associations between trauma factors and the development of VAP in ventilated patients with multiple rib fractures. Methods: We retrospectively and consecutively evaluated 101 patients with multiple rib fractures who were ventilated and managed at our hospital between January 2010 and De...

  15. Application of risk-based inspection methods for cryogenic equipment

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    Risk-based Inspection (RBI) is widely applied across the world as part of Pressure Equipment Integrity Management, especially in the oil and gas industry, to generally reduce costs compared with time-based approaches and assist in assigning resources to the most critical equipment. One of the challenges in RBI is to apply it for low temperature and cryogenic applications, as there are usually no degradation mechanisms by which to determine a suitable probability of failure in the overall risk assessment. However, the assumptions used for other degradation mechanisms can be adopted to determine, qualitatively and semi-quantitatively, a consequence of failure within the risk assessment. This can assist in providing a consistent basis for the assumptions used in ensuring adequate process safety barriers and determining suitable sizing of relief devices. This presentation will discuss risk-based inspection in the context of cryogenic safety, as well as present some of the considerations for the risk assessme...

  16. Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thadani, A.C.

    1997-01-01

    This article summarizes the activities of the Office of Research of the NRC, both from a historical aspect as well as it applies to the application of risk-based decision making. The office has been actively involved in problems related to understanding risks related to core accidents, to understanding the problem of aging of reactor components and materials from years of service, and toward the understanding and analysis of severe accidents. In addition new policy statements regarding the role of risk assessment in regulatory applications has given focus for the need of further work. The NRC has used risk assessment in regulatory questions in the past but in a fairly ad hoc sort of manner. The new policies will clearly require a better defined application of risk assessment, and help for people evaluating applications in judging the applicability of such applications when a component of them is based on risk-based decision making. To address this, standard review plans are being prepared to serve as guides for such questions. In addition, with regulatory decisions being allowed to be based upon risk-based decisions, it is necessary to have an adequate data base prepared, and made publically available, to support such a position

  17. Beyond Promotion-Based Store Switching : Antecedents and Consequences of Systematic Multiple-Store Shopping

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gijsbrechts, E.; Campo, K.; Nisol, P.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we demonstrate that single-purpose multiple store shopping is not only driven by opportunistic, promotion-based motivations, but may also be part of a longer term shopping planning process based on stable store characteristics.Starting from a utility-maximizing shopping behavior

  18. Identification of Multiple-Mode Linear Models Based on Particle Swarm Optimizer with Cyclic Network Mechanism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tae-Hyoung Kim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the metaheuristic optimizer-based direct identification of a multiple-mode system consisting of a finite set of linear regression representations of subsystems. To this end, the concept of a multiple-mode linear regression model is first introduced, and its identification issues are established. A method for reducing the identification problem for multiple-mode models to an optimization problem is also described in detail. Then, to overcome the difficulties that arise because the formulated optimization problem is inherently ill-conditioned and nonconvex, the cyclic-network-topology-based constrained particle swarm optimizer (CNT-CPSO is introduced, and a concrete procedure for the CNT-CPSO-based identification methodology is developed. This scheme requires no prior knowledge of the mode transitions between subsystems and, unlike some conventional methods, can handle a large amount of data without difficulty during the identification process. This is one of the distinguishing features of the proposed method. The paper also considers an extension of the CNT-CPSO-based identification scheme that makes it possible to simultaneously obtain both the optimal parameters of the multiple submodels and a certain decision parameter involved in the mode transition criteria. Finally, an experimental setup using a DC motor system is established to demonstrate the practical usability of the proposed metaheuristic optimizer-based identification scheme for developing a multiple-mode linear regression model.

  19. Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

    1996-01-01

    The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures

  20. Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Velthuis, A.G.J.

    201