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Sample records for based life prediction

  1. Life prediction of Ni-base superalloy

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    M Aghaie-Khafri; M Noori

    2011-04-01

    Rene 80 samples were creep–rupture tested in air between 1144 and 1255 K at various stress levels. The mean stress exponent, , and the mean activation energy for creep were calculated from the experimental results. The accelerated creep life of the alloy was evaluated by using iso-stress parametric equations and Monkman–Grant method.

  2. The Prediction of Fatigue Life Based on Four Point Bending Test

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pramesti, F.P.; Molenaar, A.A.A.; Van de Ven, M.F.C.

    2013-01-01

    To be able to devise optimum strategies for maintenance and rehabilitation, it is essential to formulate an accurate prediction of pavement life and its maintenance needs. One of the pavement life prediction methods is based on the pavement's capability to sustain fatigue. If it were possible to hav

  3. SHM-Based Probabilistic Fatigue Life Prediction for Bridges Based on FE Model Updating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Young-Joo; Cho, Soojin

    2016-03-02

    Fatigue life prediction for a bridge should be based on the current condition of the bridge, and various sources of uncertainty, such as material properties, anticipated vehicle loads and environmental conditions, make the prediction very challenging. This paper presents a new approach for probabilistic fatigue life prediction for bridges using finite element (FE) model updating based on structural health monitoring (SHM) data. Recently, various types of SHM systems have been used to monitor and evaluate the long-term structural performance of bridges. For example, SHM data can be used to estimate the degradation of an in-service bridge, which makes it possible to update the initial FE model. The proposed method consists of three steps: (1) identifying the modal properties of a bridge, such as mode shapes and natural frequencies, based on the ambient vibration under passing vehicles; (2) updating the structural parameters of an initial FE model using the identified modal properties; and (3) predicting the probabilistic fatigue life using the updated FE model. The proposed method is demonstrated by application to a numerical model of a bridge, and the impact of FE model updating on the bridge fatigue life is discussed.

  4. Screw Remaining Life Prediction Based on Quantum Genetic Algorithm and Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaochen Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available To predict the remaining life of ball screw, a screw remaining life prediction method based on quantum genetic algorithm (QGA and support vector machine (SVM is proposed. A screw accelerated test bench is introduced. Accelerometers are installed to monitor the performance degradation of ball screw. Combined with wavelet packet decomposition and isometric mapping (Isomap, the sensitive feature vectors are obtained and stored in database. Meanwhile, the sensitive feature vectors are randomly chosen from the database and constitute training samples and testing samples. Then the optimal kernel function parameter and penalty factor of SVM are searched with the method of QGA. Finally, the training samples are used to train optimized SVM while testing samples are adopted to test the prediction accuracy of the trained SVM so the screw remaining life prediction model can be got. The experiment results show that the screw remaining life prediction model could effectively predict screw remaining life.

  5. Real time remaining useful life prediction based on nonlinear Wiener based degradation processes with measurement errors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    唐圣金; 郭晓松; 于传强; 周志杰; 周召发; 张邦成

    2014-01-01

    Real time remaining useful life (RUL) prediction based on condition monitoring is an essential part in condition based maintenance (CBM). In the current methods about the real time RUL prediction of the nonlinear degradation process, the measurement error is not considered and forecasting uncertainty is large. Therefore, an approximate analytical RUL distribution in a closed-form of a nonlinear Wiener based degradation process with measurement errors was proposed. The maximum likelihood estimation approach was used to estimate the unknown fixed parameters in the proposed model. When the newly observed data are available, the random parameter is updated by the Bayesian method to make the estimation adapt to the item’s individual characteristic and reduce the uncertainty of the estimation. The simulation results show that considering measurement errors in the degradation process can significantly improve the accuracy of real time RUL prediction.

  6. Fatigue Life Prediction of Ductile Iron Based on DE-SVM Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yiqun, Ma; Xiaoping, Wang; lun, An

    the model, predicting fatigue life of ductile iron, based on SVM (Support Vector Machine, SVM) has been established. For it is easy to fall into local optimum during parameter optimization of SVM, DE (Differential Evolution algorithm, DE) algorithm was adopted to optimize to improve prediction precision. Fatigue life of ductile iron is predicted combining with concrete examples, and simulation experiment to optimize SVM is conducted adopting GA (Genetic Algorithm), ACO (Ant Colony Optimization) and POS (Partial Swarm Optimization). Results reveal that DE-SVM algorithm is of a better prediction performance.

  7. A residual life prediction model based on the generalized σ -N curved surface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zongwen AN

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In order to investigate change rule of the residual life of structure under random repeated load, firstly, starting from the statistic meaning of random repeated load, the joint probability density function of maximum stress and minimum stress is derived based on the characteristics of order statistic (maximum order statistic and minimum order statistic; then, based on the equation of generalized σ -N curved surface, considering the influence of load cycles number on fatigue life, a relationship among minimum stress, maximum stress and residual life, that is the σmin(n- σmax(n-Nr(n curved surface model, is established; finally, the validity of the proposed model is demonstrated by a practical case. The result shows that the proposed model can reflect the influence of maximum stress and minimum stress on residual life of structure under random repeated load, which can provide a theoretical basis for life prediction and reliability assessment of structure.

  8. Creep Rupture Life Prediction Based on Analysis of Large Creep Deformation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YE Wenming

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available A creep rupture life prediction method for high temperature component was proposed. The method was based on a true stress-strain elastoplastic creep constitutive model and the large deformation finite element analysis method. This method firstly used the high-temperature tensile stress-strain curve expressed by true stress and strain and the creep curve to build materials' elastoplastic and creep constitutive model respectively, then used the large deformation finite element method to calculate the deformation response of high temperature component under a given load curve, finally the creep rupture life was determined according to the change trend of the responsive curve.The method was verified by durable test of TC11 titanium alloy notched specimens under 500 ℃, and was compared with the three creep rupture life prediction methods based on the small deformation analysis. Results show that the proposed method can accurately predict the high temperature creep response and long-term life of TC11 notched specimens, and the accuracy is better than that of the methods based on the average effective stress of notch ligament, the bone point stress and the fracture strain of the key point, which are all based on small deformation finite element analysis.

  9. Multiaxial Fatigue Life Prediction for Steels Based on Some Simple Approximations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing; Yao, Zhi-feng; Zhang, Zhong-ping

    2015-01-01

    The Roessle-Fatemi's hardness method (HM) and Muralidharan-Manson's modified universal slopes method (MUSM) were employed to determine the uniaxial fatigue properties of steels from easily obtained tensile properties. Both methods give good life predictions, while the Roessle-Fatemi's HM is somewhat better. Furthermore, for predicting multiaxial fatigue lives of steels in the absence of any fatigue data, the Li's modified Wang-Brown model (MWB) was used in combination with the HM method (MWB-HM) as well as the MUSM method (MWB-MUSM), respectively. Correlation between the yield strength and the Brinell hardness was also developed to estimate the multiaxial fatigue lives of steels based only on hardness and elasticity modulus. It is shown that multiaxial fatigue lives were predicted fairly well by all the methods, and the MWB-MUSM method is slightly more accurate. In addition, a computer-based procedure for multiaxial fatigue life assessment incorporating MWB-MUSM approach was proposed and implemented to predict the fatigue life of an intermediate compressor casing. The predicted results are promising.

  10. Fatigue life prediction of Ni-base thermal solar receiver tubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartrott, Philipp von; Schlesinger, Michael [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Werkstoffmechanik (IWM), Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany); Uhlig, Ralf; Jedamski, Jens [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Stuttgart (Germany)

    2010-07-01

    Solar receivers for tower type Solar Thermal Power Plants are subjected to complex thermo-mechanical loads including fast and severe thermo-mechanical cycles. The material temperatures can reach more than 800 C and fall to room temperature very quickly. In order to predict the fatigue life of a receiver design, receiver tubes made of Alloy 625 with a wall thickness of 0.5 mm were tested in isothermal and thermo-cyclic experiments. The number of cycles to failure was in the range of 100 to 100,000. A thermo-mechanical fatigue life prediction model was set up. The model is based on the cyclic deformation of the material and the damage caused by the growth of fatigue micro cracks. The model reasonably predicts the experimental results. (orig.)

  11. Fatigue Life Prediction of Horizontal Press Frame Based on Statistical Probability and Its Redesign

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WeiWei Zhang; XiaoSon Wang; Bo Yang; Shi-Jian Yuan

    2014-01-01

    Horizontal press as an important part of hydro-forming machine is used to output the horizontal force to keep the high internal pressure during tube hydro-forming. However, the horizontal press frame is usually mounted on the press bed and not pre-stressed. Meanwhile it will be subjected to the reaction force caused by liquid pressure. Stresses are concentrated severely on the assemble region due to deformation, and total fatigue life will decrease. In order to predict the total fatigue life of the frame, the simulations are used firstly to determine to stress concentration region, and then strain gauge measurements are carried out under different loads. Next, the methods of statistical probability are conducted to calculate the fatigue life based on long-term load history. Finally a structure with the considerable longer fatigue life is redesigned.

  12. Creep Rupture Life Prediction Based on Analysis of Large Creep Deformation

    OpenAIRE

    YE Wenming; HU Xuteng; Ma, Xiaojian; SONG Yingdong

    2016-01-01

    A creep rupture life prediction method for high temperature component was proposed. The method was based on a true stress-strain elastoplastic creep constitutive model and the large deformation finite element analysis method. This method firstly used the high-temperature tensile stress-strain curve expressed by true stress and strain and the creep curve to build materials' elastoplastic and creep constitutive model respectively, then used the large deformation finite element method to calcula...

  13. A parametric physics based creep life prediction approach to gas turbine blade conceptual design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Marcus Edward Brockbank

    The required useful service lives of gas turbine components and parts are naturally one of the major design constraints limiting the gas turbine design space. For example, the required service life of a turbine blade limits the firing temperature in the combustor, which in turn limits the performance of the gas turbine. For a cooled turbine blade, it also determines the necessary cooling flow, which has a strong impact on the turbine efficiency. In most gas turbine design practices, the life prediction is only emphasized during or after the detailed design has been completed. Limited life prediction efforts have been made in the early design stages, but these efforts capture only a few of the necessary key factors, such as centrifugal stress. Furthermore, the early stage prediction methods are usually hard coded in the gas turbine system design tools and hidden from the system designer's view. The common failure mechanisms affecting the service life, such as creep, fatigue and oxidation, are highly sensitive to the material temperatures and/or stresses. Calculation of these temperatures and stresses requires that the geometry, material properties, and operating conditions be known; information not typically available in early stages of design. Even without awareness of the errors, the resulting inaccuracy in the life prediction may mislead the system designers when examining a design space which is bounded indirectly by the inaccurate required life constraints. Furthermore, because intensive creep lifing analysis is possible only towards the end of the design process, any errors or changes will cost the engine manufacturer significant money; money that could be saved if more comprehensive creep lifing predictions were possible in the early stages of design. A rapid, physics-based life prediction method could address this problem by enabling the system designer to investigate the design space more thoroughly and accurately. Although not meant as a final decision

  14. Probabilistic Fatigue Life Prediction of Bridge Cables Based on Multiscaling and Mesoscopic Fracture Mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongxiang Liu

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Fatigue fracture of bridge stay-cables is usually a multiscale process as the crack grows from micro-scale to macro-scale. Such a process, however, is highly uncertain. In order to make a rational prediction of the residual life of bridge cables, a probabilistic fatigue approach is proposed, based on a comprehensive vehicle load model, finite element analysis and multiscaling and mesoscopic fracture mechanics. Uncertainties in both material properties and external loads are considered. The proposed method is demonstrated through the fatigue life prediction of cables of the Runyang Cable-Stayed Bridge in China, and it is found that cables along the bridge spans may have significantly different fatigue lives, and due to the variability, some of them may have shorter lives than those as expected from the design.

  15. Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on Gaussian Processes Mixture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lingling; Wang, Pengchong; Chao, Kuei-Hsiang; Zhou, Yatong; Xie, Yang

    2016-01-01

    The remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of Lithium-ion batteries is closely related to the capacity degeneration trajectories. Due to the self-charging and the capacity regeneration, the trajectories have the property of multimodality. Traditional prediction models such as the support vector machines (SVM) or the Gaussian Process regression (GPR) cannot accurately characterize this multimodality. This paper proposes a novel RUL prediction method based on the Gaussian Process Mixture (GPM). It can process multimodality by fitting different segments of trajectories with different GPR models separately, such that the tiny differences among these segments can be revealed. The method is demonstrated to be effective for prediction by the excellent predictive result of the experiments on the two commercial and chargeable Type 1850 Lithium-ion batteries, provided by NASA. The performance comparison among the models illustrates that the GPM is more accurate than the SVM and the GPR. In addition, GPM can yield the predictive confidence interval, which makes the prediction more reliable than that of traditional models. PMID:27632176

  16. Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm-Based Particle Filter for Li-Ion Battery Life Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye Tian

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An intelligent online prognostic approach is proposed for predicting the remaining useful life (RUL of lithium-ion (Li-ion batteries based on artificial fish swarm algorithm (AFSA and particle filter (PF, which is an integrated approach combining model-based method with data-driven method. The parameters, used in the empirical model which is based on the capacity fade trends of Li-ion batteries, are identified dependent on the tracking ability of PF. AFSA-PF aims to improve the performance of the basic PF. By driving the prior particles to the domain with high likelihood, AFSA-PF allows global optimization, prevents particle degeneracy, thereby improving particle distribution and increasing prediction accuracy and algorithm convergence. Data provided by NASA are used to verify this approach and compare it with basic PF and regularized PF. AFSA-PF is shown to be more accurate and precise.

  17. Remaining useful life prediction based on the Wiener process for an aviation axial piston pump

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Xingjian; Lin Siru; Wang Shaoping; He Zhaomin; Zhang Chao

    2016-01-01

    An aviation hydraulic axial piston pump’s degradation from comprehensive wear is a typical gradual failure model. Accurate wear prediction is difficult as random and uncertain char-acteristics must be factored into the estimation. The internal wear status of the axial piston pump is characterized by the return oil flow based on fault mechanism analysis of the main frictional pairs in the pump. The performance degradation model is described by the Wiener process to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of the pump. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is performed by utilizing the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the initial parameters of the Wiener process while recursive estimation is conducted utilizing the Kalman filter method to estimate the drift coefficient of the Wiener process. The RUL of the pump is then calculated accord-ing to the performance degradation model based on the Wiener process. Experimental results indi-cate that the return oil flow is a suitable characteristic for reflecting the internal wear status of the axial piston pump, and thus the Wiener process-based method may effectively predicate the RUL of the pump.

  18. Reliability-based service life prediction of existing concrete structures under marine environment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴灵杰; 周拥军; 寇新建; 蒋萌

    2015-01-01

    Chloride-induced corrosion of the reinforcement is considered as one of the major mechanisms resulting in the reduction of structural resistance of reinforced concrete structural elements located in marine and other aggressive environments. A study of reinforced concrete structures located at the Fangcheng dock in the Beibu Gulf port, China, was present. The result from field survey indicates that the concrete cover depth and chloride diffusion coefficient fit best normal distribution and lognormal distribution, respectively. The service life of structure is about 55 a, while initiation time is 45 a. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the most influential factor of the structure service life prediction is concrete cover, followed by diffusion coefficient, diffusion decay index, critical chloride concentration, surface chloride concentration, current density and localized pitting corrosion. Finally, the effects of diffusion decay index and critical chloride concentration on structure service life prediction are discussed.

  19. An Analytical Model for Fatigue Life Prediction Based on Fracture Mechanics and Crack Closure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsø, Jan Behrend; Agerskov, Henning

    1996-01-01

    Fatigue in steel structures subjected to stochastic loading is studied. Of special interest is the problem of fatigue damage accumulation and in this connection, a comparison between experimental results and results obtained using fracture mechanics. Fatigue test results obtained for welded plate...... test specimens are compared with fatigue life predictions using a fracture mechanics approach. In the calculation of the fatigue life, the influence of the welding residual stresses and crack closure on the fatigue crack growth is considered. A description of the crack closure model for analytical...... determination of the fatigue life is included. Furthermore, the results obtained in studies of the various parameters that have an influence on the fatigue life, are given. A very good agreement between experimental and analytical results is obtained, when the crack closure model is used in determination...

  20. Central Nervous System Based Computing Models for Shelf Life Prediction of Soft Mouth Melting Milk Cakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gyanendra Kumar Goyal

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the latency and potential of central nervous system based system intelligent computer engineering system for detecting shelf life of soft mouth melting milk cakes stored at 10o C. Soft mouth melting milk cakes are exquisite sweetmeat cuisine made out of heat and acid thickened solidified sweetened milk. In today’s highly competitive market consumers look for good quality food products. Shelf life is a good and accurate indicator to the food quality and safety. To achieve good quality of food products, detection of shelf life is important. Central nervous system based intelligent computing model was developed which detected 19.82 days shelf life, as against 21 days experimental shelf life.

  1. Lithium-ion battery remaining useful life prediction based on grey support vector machines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaogang Li

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this article, an improved grey prediction model is proposed to address low-accuracy prediction issue of grey forecasting model. The first step is using a trigonometric function to transform the original data sequence to smooth the data, which is called smoothness of grey prediction model, and then a grey support vector machine model by integrating the improved grey model with support vector machine is introduced. At the initial stage of the model, trigonometric functions and accumulation generation operation can be used to preprocess the data, which enhances the smoothness of the data and reduces the associated randomness. In addition, support vector machine is implemented to establish a prediction model for the pre-processed data and select the optimal model parameters via genetic algorithms. Finally, the data are restored through the ‘regressive generate’ operation to obtain the forecasting data. To prove that the grey support vector machine model is superior to the other models, the battery life data from the Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering are selected, and the presented model is used to predict the remaining useful life of the battery. The predicted result is compared to that of grey model and support vector machines. For a more intuitive comparison of the three models, this article quantifies the root mean square errors for these three different models in the case of different ratio of training samples and prediction samples. The results show that the effect of grey support vector machine model is optimal, and the corresponding root mean square error is only 3.18%.

  2. Physics-based Modeling Tools for Life Prediction and Durability Assessment of Advanced Materials Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The technical objectives of this program are: (1) to develop a set of physics-based modeling tools to predict the initiation of hot corrosion and to address pit and...

  3. Prediction of Combine Economic Life Based on Repair and Maintenance Costs Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Rohani

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Farm machinery managers often need to make complex economic decisions on machinery replacement. Repair and maintenance costs can have significant impacts on this economic decision. The farm manager must be able to predict farm machinery repair and maintenance costs. This study aimed to identify a regression model that can adequately represent the repair and maintenance costs in terms of machine age in cumulative hours of use. The regression model has the ability to predict the repair and maintenance costs for longer time periods. Therefore, it can be used for the estimation of the economic life. The study was conducted using field data collected from 11 John-Deer 955 combine harvesters used in several western provinces of Iran. It was found that power model has a better performance for the prediction of combine repair and maintenance costs. The results showed that the optimum replacement age of John-Deer 955 combine was 54300 cumulative hours.

  4. Prediction of Quality of Life of Non–Insulin-Dependent Diabetic Patients Based on Perceived Social Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Shareh

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: The objective of this study was to predic quality of life based on perceived social support components in non–insulin-dependent diabetic patients.Materials and Method: Fifty patients with non–insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus from Al-Zahra diabetic center in Shiraz participated in a cross-sectional study via survey instrument. All subjects completed multidimensional scale of perceived social support (MSPSS and world health organization quality of life- brief (WHOQOL-BREF questionnaires. Results: On the basis of stepwise multiple regression analysis friends and family dimensions of perceived social support were the best predictors of the quality of life and its dimensions (p<0.01.Conclusion: Friends and family dimensions of perceived social support have significant contributions in predicting quality of life of patients with non–insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus.

  5. Thermomechanical fatigue – Damage mechanisms and mechanism-based life prediction methods

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    H-J Christ; A Jung; H J Maier; R Teteruk

    2003-02-01

    An existing extensive database on the isothermal and thermomechanical fatigue behaviour of high-temperature titanium alloy IMI 834 and dispersoidstrengthened aluminum alloy X8019 in SiC particle-reinforced as well as unreinforced conditions was used to evaluate both the adaptability of fracture mechanics approaches to TMF and the resulting predictive capabilities of determining material life by crack propagation consideration. Selection of the correct microstructural concepts was emphasised and these concepts were, then adjusted by using data from independent experiments in order to avoid any sort of fitting. It is shown that the cyclic -integral ($\\Delta J_{\\text{eff}}$ concept) is suitable to predict the cyclic lifetime for conditions where the total crack propagation rate is approximately identical to pure fatigue crack growth velocity. In the case that crack propagation is strongly affected by creep, the creep–fatigue damage parameter $\\Delta_{C\\ F}$ introduced by Riedel can be successfully applied. If environmental effects are very pronounced, the accelerating influence of corrosion on fatigue crack propagation can no longer implicitly be taken into account in the fatigue crack growth law. Instead, a linear combination of the crack growth rate contributions from plain fatigue (determined in vacuum) and from environmental attack is assumed and found to yield a satisfactory prediction, if the relevant corrosion process is taken into account.

  6. Development of a Late-Life Dementia Prediction Index with Supervised Machine Learning in the Population-Based CAIDE Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pekkala, Timo; Hall, Anette; Lötjönen, Jyrki; Mattila, Jussi; Soininen, Hilkka; Ngandu, Tiia; Laatikainen, Tiina; Kivipelto, Miia; Solomon, Alina

    2016-01-01

    Background and objective: This study aimed to develop a late-life dementia prediction model using a novel validated supervised machine learning method, the Disease State Index (DSI), in the Finnish population-based CAIDE study. Methods: The CAIDE study was based on previous population-based midlife surveys. CAIDE participants were re-examined twice in late-life, and the first late-life re-examination was used as baseline for the present study. The main study population included 709 cognitively normal subjects at first re-examination who returned to the second re-examination up to 10 years later (incident dementia n = 39). An extended population (n = 1009, incident dementia 151) included non-participants/non-survivors (national registers data). DSI was used to develop a dementia index based on first re-examination assessments. Performance in predicting dementia was assessed as area under the ROC curve (AUC). Results: AUCs for DSI were 0.79 and 0.75 for main and extended populations. Included predictors were cognition, vascular factors, age, subjective memory complaints, and APOE genotype. Conclusion: The supervised machine learning method performed well in identifying comprehensive profiles for predicting dementia development up to 10 years later. DSI could thus be useful for identifying individuals who are most at risk and may benefit from dementia prevention interventions. PMID:27802228

  7. An integrated Gaussian process regression for prediction of remaining useful life of slow speed bearings based on acoustic emission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aye, S. A.; Heyns, P. S.

    2017-02-01

    This paper proposes an optimal Gaussian process regression (GPR) for the prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) of slow speed bearings based on a novel degradation assessment index obtained from acoustic emission signal. The optimal GPR is obtained from an integration or combination of existing simple mean and covariance functions in order to capture the observed trend of the bearing degradation as well the irregularities in the data. The resulting integrated GPR model provides an excellent fit to the data and improves over the simple GPR models that are based on simple mean and covariance functions. In addition, it achieves a low percentage error prediction of the remaining useful life of slow speed bearings. These findings are robust under varying operating conditions such as loading and speed and can be applied to nonlinear and nonstationary machine response signals useful for effective preventive machine maintenance purposes.

  8. Prediction of Fatigue Life of a Continuous Bridge Girder Based on Vehicle Induced Stress History

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.G. Rao

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The fatigue damage assessment of bridge components by conducting a full scale fatigue testing is often prohibitive. A need, therefore, exists to estimate the fatigue damage in bridge components by a simulation of bridge-vehicle interaction dynamics due to the action of the actual traffic. In the present paper, a systematic method has been outlined to find the fatigue damage in the continuous bridge girder based on stress range frequency histogram and fatigue strength parameters of the bridge materials. Vehicle induced time history of maximum flexural stresses has been obtained by Monte Carlo simulation process and utilized to develop the stress range frequency histogram taking into consideration of the annual traffic volume. The linear damage accumulation theory is then applied to calculate cumulative damage index and fatigue life of the bridge. Effect of the bridge span, pavement condition, increase of vehicle operating speed, weight and suspension characteristics on fatigue life of the bridge have been examined.

  9. A New Predictive Model Based on the ABC Optimized Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines Approach for Predicting the Remaining Useful Life in Aircraft Engines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulino José García Nieto

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Remaining useful life (RUL estimation is considered as one of the most central points in the prognostics and health management (PHM. The present paper describes a nonlinear hybrid ABC–MARS-based model for the prediction of the remaining useful life of aircraft engines. Indeed, it is well-known that an accurate RUL estimation allows failure prevention in a more controllable way so that the effective maintenance can be carried out in appropriate time to correct impending faults. The proposed hybrid model combines multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS, which have been successfully adopted for regression problems, with the artificial bee colony (ABC technique. This optimization technique involves parameter setting in the MARS training procedure, which significantly influences the regression accuracy. However, its use in reliability applications has not yet been widely explored. Bearing this in mind, remaining useful life values have been predicted here by using the hybrid ABC–MARS-based model from the remaining measured parameters (input variables for aircraft engines with success. A correlation coefficient equal to 0.92 was obtained when this hybrid ABC–MARS-based model was applied to experimental data. The agreement of this model with experimental data confirmed its good performance. The main advantage of this predictive model is that it does not require information about the previous operation states of the aircraft engine.

  10. V-Notched Bar Creep Life Prediction: GH3536 Ni-Based Superalloy Under Multiaxial Stress State

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, D. X.; Wang, J. P.; Wen, Z. X.; Liu, D. S.; Yue, Z. F.

    2016-07-01

    In this study, creep experiments on smooth and circumferential V-type notched round bars were conducted in GH3536 Ni-based superalloy at 750 °C to identify notch strengthening effect in notched specimens. FE analysis was carried out, coupled with continuum damage mechanics (CDM), to analyze stress distribution and damage evolution under multiaxial stress state. The creep deformation of smooth specimens and the rupture life of both smooth and notched specimens showed good agreement between experimental results and FE analysis predictions; the creep rupture life for the notched specimen was successfully predicted via the "skeletal point" concept. Both creep damage analysis and the observed fracture morphology suggest that creep rupture started first at the root in the V-type notched specimens, and shifted to the region close to the notch root when the notch was relatively shallow compared to U-type notched specimens.

  11. An Energy-Critical Plane Based Fatigue Damage Approach for the Life Prediction of Metal Alloys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitatzis, N.; Savaidis, G.

    2016-11-01

    This paper presents a new energy-critical plane based fatigue damage approach for the assessment of the fatigue life under uniaxial and multiaxial proportional and non-proportional fatigue loading. The proposed approximate method, based on Farahani's multiaxial fatigue damage model, takes into account the critical plane orientations during a loading cycle and the values of the respective damage parameters on them. The uniqueness of the proposed method lies on the fact that it considers a weighted contribution of each critical plane orientation to the material damage. The relative weighting factors depend on the declination of each critical plane with respect to the critical plane, where the damage parameters exhibit their maximum values during a fatigue loading cycle. Herein, several low, mid and high-cycle fatigue loading cases are being investigated. The induced elastic-plastic stress-strain states are approximated by means of respective finite element analyses (FEA). Several experimental fatigue data derived from uniaxial and multiaxial fatigue tests on StE460 steel alloy thin-walled hourglass-type specimens have been used to verify the model's calculation accuracy. Comparison of experimental and calculated fatigue lives confirm remarkable fatigue life calculation accuracy in all cases examined.

  12. Prediction of material creep behaviour for strain based life assessment applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rantala, J.H.; Hurst, R.C. [EC JRC IAM, Petten (Netherlands); Bregani, F. [ENEL, Milan (Italy)

    1998-12-31

    In this work the idea of using constant load uniaxial creep test results instead of constant stress results for developing a CDM creep model for the P92 material is demonstrated. Due to limited availability of creep test results this work is based on incomplete test data and a general stress rupture line. In spite of these limitations a material creep model was developed for use in a FE analysis. Using P91 material as an example, a method is proposed to account for differences in strain evolution as a function of stress which normally manifests itself as lower strain values at low stresses in a normalised time-strain plot. This allows the CDM model to be used both in FE analysis and in strain-based life assessment engineering calculations. (orig.) 3 refs.

  13. [Prediction method of rural landscape pattern evolution based on life cycle: a case study of Jinjing Town, Hunan Province, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Xiang; Liu, Li-Ming; Li, Hong-Qing

    2014-11-01

    Taking Jinjing Town in Dongting Lake area as a case, this paper analyzed the evolution of rural landscape patterns by means of life cycle theory, simulated the evolution cycle curve, and calculated its evolution period, then combining CA-Markov model, a complete prediction model was built based on the rule of rural landscape change. The results showed that rural settlement and paddy landscapes of Jinjing Town would change most in 2020, with the rural settlement landscape increased to 1194.01 hm2 and paddy landscape greatly reduced to 3090.24 hm2. The quantitative and spatial prediction accuracies of the model were up to 99.3% and 96.4%, respectively, being more explicit than single CA-Markov model. The prediction model of rural landscape patterns change proposed in this paper would be helpful for rural landscape planning in future.

  14. Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on the Wiener Process with Measurement Error

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengjin Tang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Remaining useful life (RUL prediction is central to the prognostics and health management (PHM of lithium-ion batteries. This paper proposes a novel RUL prediction method for lithium-ion batteries based on the Wiener process with measurement error (WPME. First, we use the truncated normal distribution (TND based modeling approach for the estimated degradation state and obtain an exact and closed-form RUL distribution by simultaneously considering the measurement uncertainty and the distribution of the estimated drift parameter. Then, the traditional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE method for population based parameters estimation is remedied to improve the estimation efficiency. Additionally, we analyze the relationship between the classic MLE method and the combination of the Bayesian updating algorithm and the expectation maximization algorithm for the real time RUL prediction. Interestingly, it is found that the result of the combination algorithm is equal to the classic MLE method. Inspired by this observation, a heuristic algorithm for the real time parameters updating is presented. Finally, numerical examples and a case study of lithium-ion batteries are provided to substantiate the superiority of the proposed RUL prediction method.

  15. Actual service life prediction of building components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aagaard, Niels-Jørgen; Brandt, Erik; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2014-01-01

    a condensed method for assessment of life cycle costs for buildings. Estimation of life cycle costs has traditionally been based on predicted service life for building components in terms of technical performance. This paper suggests a method for taking into account other contributing factors...... such as economics, aesthetics and use of the building. Each of these factors is regarded as a stochastic variable and can be seen as competing causes of bringing service life to an end. A model is proposed for combining such variables resulting in the actual service life of building components. Furthermore......, the paper presents an analysis of service life of buildings as such with respect to the use of the building partially based on analysis of data from the nationwide Danish register of buildings and housing as well as turnover in the Danish construction industry from refurbishment and demolition activities...

  16. LIFE PREDICTION APPROACH FOR RANDOM MULTIAXIAL FATIGUE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Lei; Wang Dejun

    2005-01-01

    According to the concept of critical plane, a life prediction approach for random multiaxial fatigue is presented. First, the critical plane under the multiaxial random loading is determined based on the concept of the weight-averaged maximum shear strain direction. Then the shear and normal strain histories on the determined critical plane are calculated and taken as the subject of multiaxial load simplifying and multiaxial cycle counting. Furthermore, a multiaxial fatigue life prediction model including the parameters resulted from multiaxial cycle counting is presented and applied to calculating the fatigue damage generated from each cycle. Finally, the cumulative damage is added up using Miner's linear rule, and the fatigue prediction life is given. The experiments under multiaxial loading blocks are used for the verification of the proposed method. The prediction has a good correction with the experimental results.

  17. Physics based modeling of a series parallel battery pack for asymmetry analysis, predictive control and life extension

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganesan, Nandhini; Basu, Suman; Hariharan, Krishnan S.; Kolake, Subramanya Mayya; Song, Taewon; Yeo, Taejung; Sohn, Dong Kee; Doo, Seokgwang

    2016-08-01

    Lithium-Ion batteries used for electric vehicle applications are subject to large currents and various operation conditions, making battery pack design and life extension a challenging problem. With increase in complexity, modeling and simulation can lead to insights that ensure optimal performance and life extension. In this manuscript, an electrochemical-thermal (ECT) coupled model for a 6 series × 5 parallel pack is developed for Li ion cells with NCA/C electrodes and validated against experimental data. Contribution of the cathode to overall degradation at various operating conditions is assessed. Pack asymmetry is analyzed from a design and an operational perspective. Design based asymmetry leads to a new approach of obtaining the individual cell responses of the pack from an average ECT output. Operational asymmetry is demonstrated in terms of effects of thermal gradients on cycle life, and an efficient model predictive control technique is developed. Concept of reconfigurable battery pack is studied using detailed simulations that can be used for effective monitoring and extension of battery pack life.

  18. MRI-Based Classification Models in Prediction of Mild Cognitive Impairment and Dementia in Late-Life Depression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebedeva, Aleksandra K.; Westman, Eric; Borza, Tom; Beyer, Mona K.; Engedal, Knut; Aarsland, Dag; Selbaek, Geir; Haberg, Asta K.

    2017-01-01

    Objective: Late-life depression (LLD) is associated with development of different types of dementia. Identification of LLD patients, who will develop cognitive decline, i.e., the early stage of dementia would help to implement interventions earlier. The purpose of this study was to assess whether structural brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in LLD patients can predict mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia 1 year prior to the diagnosis. Methods: LLD patients underwent brain MRI at baseline and repeated clinical assessment after 1-year. Structural brain measurements were obtained using Freesurfer software (v. 5.1) from the T1W brain MRI images. MRI-based Random Forest classifier was used to discriminate between LLD who developed MCI or dementia after 1-year follow-up and cognitively stable LLD. Additionally, a previously established Random Forest model trained on 185 patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD) vs. 225 cognitively normal elderly from the Alzheimer’s disease Neuroimaging Initiative was tested on the LLD data set (ADNI model). Results: MCI and dementia diagnoses were predicted in LLD patients with 76%/68%/84% accuracy/sensitivity/specificity. Adding the baseline Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores to the models improved accuracy/sensitivity/specificity to 81%/75%/86%. The best model predicted MCI status alone using MRI and baseline MMSE scores with accuracy/sensitivity/specificity of 89%/85%/90%. The most important region for all the models was right ventral diencephalon, including hypothalamus. Its volume correlated negatively with the number of depressive episodes. ADNI model trained on AD vs. Controls using SV could predict MCI-DEM patients with 67% accuracy. Conclusion: LDD patients developing MCI and dementia can be discriminated from LLD patients remaining cognitively stable with good accuracy based on baseline structural MRI alone. Baseline MMSE score improves prediction accuracy. Ventral diencephalon, including the hypothalamus

  19. Predicting the remaining service life of concrete

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clifton, J.F.

    1991-11-01

    Nuclear power plants are providing, currently, about 17 percent of the U.S. electricity and many of these plants are approaching their licensed life of 40 years. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Department of Energy`s Oak Ridge National Laboratory are carrying out a program to develop a methodology for assessing the remaining safe-life of the concrete components and structures in nuclear power plants. This program has the overall objective of identifying potential structural safety issues, as well as acceptance criteria, for use in evaluations of nuclear power plants for continued service. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is contributing to this program by identifying and analyzing methods for predicting the remaining life of in-service concrete materials. This report examines the basis for predicting the remaining service lives of concrete materials of nuclear power facilities. Methods for predicting the service life of new and in-service concrete materials are analyzed. These methods include (1) estimates based on experience, (2) comparison of performance, (3) accelerated testing, (4) stochastic methods, and (5) mathematical modeling. New approaches for predicting the remaining service lives of concrete materials are proposed and recommendations for their further development given. Degradation processes are discussed based on considerations of their mechanisms, likelihood of occurrence, manifestations, and detection. They include corrosion, sulfate attack, alkali-aggregate reactions, frost attack, leaching, radiation, salt crystallization, and microbiological attack.

  20. Operational life prediction on gating image intensifier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Yu-hui; Shen, Zhi-guo; Li, Zhong-li

    2009-07-01

    Operational life is one of the important parameters to evaluate second and super second generation image intensifiers. It can be used not only to monitor manufacturing technique in product line, then the technology on photocathode processing, MCP degassing and MCP producing can be adjusted promptly, but also to eliminate the image intensifiers which have hidden risk on operational life as early as possible. Recently gating image intensifiers are used widely, method to estimate the operational life of gating image intensifier related to its practical operate mode and working condition need to be established urgently. The least square method to analyze the operational life test data in product line was introduced in this paper. Now the data can be analyzed with convenient statistic analyze function on Excel. Using "worksheet function" and "chart wizard" and "data analysis" on Excel to do the least square method calculation, spreadsheets are established to do complex data calculation with worksheet functions. Based on them, formulas to monitor the technology parameters were derived, and the conclusion that the operational life was only related to the decrease slope of photocathode exponential fit curve was made. The decrease slope of photocathode sensitivity exponential fit curve and the decrease percent of the exponential fit photocathode sensitivity can be used to evaluate the qualification of the operational life rapidly. The mathematic models for operational life prediction on image intensifier and gating image intensifier are established respectively based on the acceptable values of the decrease percent of the exponential fit photocathode sensitivity and the expecting signal to noise ratio. The equations predicting the operational life related to duty cycle and input light level on gating image intensifier were derived, and the relationship between them were discussed too. The theory foundation were made herein, so the user can select proper gating image

  1. Programming Useful Life Prediction (PULP) Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Accurately predicting Remaining Useful Life (RUL) provides significant benefits—it increases safety and reduces financial and labor resource requirements....

  2. Prediction of Cutting Tool Life Based on Support Vector Regression%基于支持向量回归机的刀具寿命预测

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    侍红岩; 吴晓强; 张春友

    2015-01-01

    刀具寿命是制定刀具需求计划、衡量刀具性能和核算成本等的重要依据。针对现有神经网络方法在预测刀具寿命方面存在的不足,提出了一种新的基于支持向量回归机的刀具寿命预测方法。在分析了影响刀具寿命预测主要因素的基础上,建立了基于支持向量回归机的刀具寿命预测模型。应用实例的仿真结果表明,所建立的预测模型具有较强的推广能力和较高的预测精度。%Cutting tool life is an important foundation for setting down cutting tool demand plan,weighing cutting tool capability and accounting cost.Aiming at the deficiencies of existing methods of neural network in prediction of cutting tool life,a new prediction method for cutting tool life was proposed based on support vector regression.Analyzing the major fac-tors which affecting prediction of cutting tool life,based on which the prediction model of cutting tool life based on support vector regression was proposed.The simulation results of application instance show that the prediction model has strong generalization ability and high prediction precision.

  3. FATIGUE LIFE PREDICTION OF CRANKSHAFT MADE OF MATERIAL 48MnV BASED ON FATIGUE TESTS,DYNAMIC SIMULATION AND FEA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Guoqing; PU Gengqiang; WANG Chengtao

    2006-01-01

    S-N curve and fatigue parameters of 48MnV are obtained using small sample tests and staircase or up and down method, which paves the way for predicting fatigue life of crankshaft made of 48MnV. The fatigue life of the crankshaft of a six-cylinder engine is calculated using different damage models such as S-N method, normal strain approach, Smoth-Watson-Topper (SWT)-Bannantine approach, shear strain approach, and Fatemi-Socie method based on dynamic simulation and finite element analysis (FEA) of crankshaft. The results indicate that the traditional calculation is conservative and the residual fatigue life of crankshaft is sufficient to maintain next life cycle if the crankshaft is remanufactured after its end of life.

  4. Service life prediction and cementitious composites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stoklund Larsen, E.

    The present Ph.D.thesis describes and discusses the applicability of a systematic methodology recommended by CIB W80/RILEM-PSL for sevice life prediction. The report describes the most important inherent and environmental factors affecting the service life of structures of cementitious composites....... On the basis of this discription of factors and experience from a test programme described in SBI Report 222, Service life prediction and fibre reinforced cementitious composites, the applicabillity of the CIB/RILEM methodology is discussed....

  5. End-of-Discharge and End-of-Life Prediction in Lithium-Ion Batteries with Electrochemistry-Based Aging Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daigle, Matthew; Kulkarni, Chetan S.

    2016-01-01

    As batteries become increasingly prevalent in complex systems such as aircraft and electric cars, monitoring and predicting battery state of charge and state of health becomes critical. In order to accurately predict the remaining battery power to support system operations for informed operational decision-making, age-dependent changes in dynamics must be accounted for. Using an electrochemistry-based model, we investigate how key parameters of the battery change as aging occurs, and develop models to describe aging through these key parameters. Using these models, we demonstrate how we can (i) accurately predict end-of-discharge for aged batteries, and (ii) predict the end-of-life of a battery as a function of anticipated usage. The approach is validated through an experimental set of randomized discharge profiles.

  6. Uniaxial and Multiaxial Fatigue Life Prediction of the Trabecular Bone Based on Physiological Loading: A Comparative Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatihhi, S J; Harun, M N; Abdul Kadir, Mohammed Rafiq; Abdullah, Jaafar; Kamarul, T; Öchsner, Andreas; Syahrom, Ardiyansyah

    2015-10-01

    Fatigue assessment of the trabecular bone has been developed to give a better understanding of bone properties. While most fatigue studies are relying on uniaxial compressive load as the method of assessment, in various cases details are missing, or the uniaxial results are not very realistic. In this paper, the effect of three different load histories from physiological loading applied on the trabecular bone were studied in order to predict the first failure surface and the fatigue lifetime. The fatigue behaviour of the trabecular bone under uniaxial load was compared to that of multiaxial load using a finite element simulation. The plastic strain was found localized at the trabecular structure under multiaxial load. On average, applying multiaxial loads reduced more than five times the fatigue life of the trabecular bone. The results provide evidence that multiaxial loading is dominated in the low cycle fatigue in contrast to the uniaxial one. Both bone volume fraction and structural model index were best predictors of failure (p < 0.05) in fatigue for both types of loading, whilst uniaxial loading has indicated better values in most cases.

  7. Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Predictions of Tramadol Exposure Throughout Pediatric Life: an Analysis of the Different Clearance Contributors with Emphasis on CYP2D6 Maturation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    T'jollyn, Huybrecht; Snoeys, Jan; Vermeulen, An; Michelet, Robin; Cuyckens, Filip; Mannens, Geert; Van Peer, Achiel; Annaert, Pieter; Allegaert, Karel; Van Bocxlaer, Jan; Boussery, Koen

    2015-11-01

    This paper focuses on the retrospective evaluation of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) techniques used to mechanistically predict clearance throughout pediatric life. An intravenous tramadol retrograde PBPK model was set up in Simcyp® using adult clearance values, qualified for CYP2D6, CYP3A4, CYP2B6, and renal contributions. Subsequently, the model was evaluated for mechanistic prediction of total, CYP2D6-related, and renal clearance predictions in very early life. In two in vitro pediatric human liver microsomal (HLM) batches (1 and 3 months), O-desmethyltramadol and N-desmethyltramadol formation rates were compared with CYP2D6 and CYP3A4 activity, respectively. O-desmethyltramadol formation was mediated only by CYP2D6, while N-desmethyltramadol was mediated in part by CYP3A4. Additionally, the clearance maturation of the PBPK model predictions was compared to two in vivo maturation models (Hill and exponential) based on plasma concentration data, and to clearance estimations from a WinNonlin® fit of plasma concentration and urinary excretion data. Maturation of renal and CYP2D6 clearance is captured well in the PBPK model predictions, but total tramadol clearance is underpredicted. The most pronounced underprediction of total and CYP2D6-mediated clearance was observed in the age range of 2-13 years. In conclusion, the PBPK technique showed to be a powerful mechanistic tool capable of predicting maturation of CYP2D6 and renal tramadol clearance in early infancy, although some underprediction occurs between 2 and 13 years for total and CYP2D6-mediated tramadol clearance.

  8. PRODUCT DATA PREDICTION WITH UNCERTAINTY IN PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE DESIGN

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yu Suiran; Wang Chengtao; Kimura Fumihiko

    2003-01-01

    Various kinds of data are used in new product design and more accurate data make the design results more reliable. Even though part of product data can be available directly from the existing similar products, there still leaves a great deal of data unavailable. This makes data prediction a valuable work. A method that can predict data of product under development based on the existing similar products is proposed. Fuzzy theory is used to deal with the uncertainties in data prediction process. The proposed method can be used in life cycle design, life cycle assessment (LCA) etc. Case study on current refrigerator is used as a demonstration example.

  9. A comparison of fatigue life prediction methodologies for rotorcraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Everett, R. A., Jr.

    1990-01-01

    Because of the current U.S. Army requirement that all new rotorcraft be designed to a 'six nines' reliability on fatigue life, this study was undertaken to assess the accuracy of the current safe life philosophy using the nominal stress Palmgrem-Miner linear cumulative damage rule to predict the fatigue life of rotorcraft dynamic components. It has been shown that this methodology can predict fatigue lives that differ from test lives by more than two orders of magnitude. A further objective of this work was to compare the accuracy of this methodology to another safe life method called the local strain approach as well as to a method which predicts fatigue life based solely on crack growth data. Spectrum fatigue tests were run on notched (k(sub t) = 3.2) specimens made of 4340 steel using the Felix/28 tests fairly well, being slightly on the unconservative side of the test data. The crack growth method, which is based on 'small crack' crack growth data and a crack-closure model, also predicted the fatigue lives very well with the predicted lives being slightly longer that the mean test lives but within the experimental scatter band. The crack growth model was also able to predict the change in test lives produced by the rainflow reconstructed spectra.

  10. Life Prediction on a T700 Carbon Fiber Reinforced Cylinder with Limited Accelerated Life Testing Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ma Xiaobing

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available An accelerated life testing investigation was conducted on a composite cylinder that consists of aluminum alloy and T700 carbon fiber. The ultimate failure stress predictions of cylinders were obtained by the mixing rule and verified by the blasting static pressure method. Based on the stress prediction of cylinder under working conditions, the constant stress accelerated life test of the cylinder was designed. However, the failure data cannot be sufficiently obtained by the accelerated life test due to the time limitation. Therefore, most of the data presented to be high censored in high stress level and zero-failure data in low stress level. When using the traditional method for rupture life prediction, the results showed to be of lower confidence. In this study, the consistency of failure mechanism for carbon fiber and cylinder was analyzed firstly. According to the analysis result, the statistical test information of carbon fiber could be utilized for the accelerated model constitution. Then, rupture life prediction method for cylinder was proposed based on the accelerated life test data and carbon fiber test data. In this way, the life prediction accuracy of cylinder could be improved obviously, and the results showed that the accuracy of this method increased by 35%.

  11. A Predictive Framework for Thermomechanical Fatigue Life of High Silicon Molybdenum Ductile Cast Iron Based on Considerations of Strain Energy Dissipation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avery, Katherine R.

    Isothermal low cycle fatigue (LCF) and anisothermal thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) tests were conducted on a high silicon molybdenum (HiSiMo) cast iron for temperatures up to 1073K. LCF and out-of-phase (OP) TMF lives were significantly reduced when the temperature was near 673K due to an embrittlement phenomenon which decreases the ductility of HiSiMo at this temperature. In this case, intergranular fracture was predominant, and magnesium was observed at the fracture surface. When the thermal cycle did not include 673K, the failure mode was predominantly transgranular, and magnesium was not present on the fracture surface. The in-phase (IP) TMF lives were unaffected when the thermal cycle included 673K, and the predominant failure mode was found to be transgranular fracture, regardless of the temperature. No magnesium was present on the IP TMF fracture surfaces. Thus, the embrittlement phenomenon was found to contribute to fatigue damage only when the temperature was near 673K and a tensile stress was present. To account for the temperature- and stress-dependence of the embrittlement phenomenon on the TMF life of HiSiMo cast iron, an original model based on the cyclic inelastic energy dissipation is proposed which accounts for temperature-dependent differences in the rate of fatigue damage accumulation in tension and compression. The proposed model has few empirical parameters. Despite the simplicity of the model, the predicted fatigue life shows good agreement with more than 130 uniaxial low cycle and thermomechanical fatigue tests, cyclic creep tests, and tests conducted at slow strain rates and with hold times. The proposed model was implemented in a multiaxial formulation and applied to the fatigue life prediction of an exhaust manifold subjected to severe thermal cycles. The simulation results show good agreement with the failure locations and number of cycles to failure observed in a component-level experiment.

  12. Innovative predictive maintenance concepts to improve life cycle management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tinga, T.

    2014-01-01

    For naval systems with typically long service lives, high sustainment costs and strict availability requirements, an effective and efficient life cycle management process is very important. In this paper four approaches are discussed to improve that process: physics of failure based predictive maint

  13. Development of a probabilistic model for the prediction of fatigue life in the very high cycle fatigue (VHCF range based on inclusion population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kolyshkin A.

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The VHCF behaviour of metallic materials containing microstructural defects such as non-metallic inclusions is determined by the size and distribution of the damage dominating defects. In the present paper, the size and location of about 60.000 inclusions measured on the longitudinal and transversal cross sections of AISI 304 sheet form a database for the probabilistic determination of failure-relevant inclusion distribution in fatigue specimens and their corresponding fatigue lifes. By applying the method of Murakami et al. the biggest measured inclusions were used in order to predict the size of failure-relevant inclusions in the fatigue specimens. The location of the crack initiating inclusions was defined based on the modeled inclusion population and the stress distribution in the fatigue specimen, using the probabilistic Monte Carlo framework. Reasonable agreement was obtained between modeling and experimental results.

  14. Towards a unified fatigue life prediction method for marine structures

    CERN Document Server

    Cui, Weicheng; Wang, Fang

    2014-01-01

    In order to apply the damage tolerance design philosophy to design marine structures, accurate prediction of fatigue crack growth under service conditions is required. Now, more and more people have realized that only a fatigue life prediction method based on fatigue crack propagation (FCP) theory has the potential to explain various fatigue phenomena observed. In this book, the issues leading towards the development of a unified fatigue life prediction (UFLP) method based on FCP theory are addressed. Based on the philosophy of the UFLP method, the current inconsistency between fatigue design and inspection of marine structures could be resolved. This book presents the state-of-the-art and recent advances, including those by the authors, in fatigue studies. It is designed to lead the future directions and to provide a useful tool in many practical applications. It is intended to address to engineers, naval architects, research staff, professionals and graduates engaged in fatigue prevention design and survey ...

  15. C²SLDS: a WSN-based perishable food shelf-life prediction and LSFO strategy decision support system in cold chain logistics

    OpenAIRE

    Qi, Lin; Xu, Mark; Fu, Zetian; Mira, Trebar; Zhang, Xiaoshuan

    2014-01-01

    Temperature monitoring, shelf-life visibility and Least Shelf-life First Out (LSFO) stock strategy are important contents in perishable food cold chain logistics for both cold chain managers and workers in order to reduce quality and economic losses. This paper illustrates a wireless sensor network (WSN) based integrated Cold Chain Shelf Life Decision Support System (C²SLDS) designed for perishable food product cold chain management. The system is implemented based on the WSN and time tempera...

  16. A survey on life prediction of equipment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hu Changhua

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Once in the hands of end users, such durable equipment as spacecraft, aircraft, ships, automobiles, computers, etc. are in a state of debugging, working or storage. In either state, availability, reliability and super-efficiency are the ultimate goals, which have been achieved through constant monitoring as well as regular, preventive, routine and corrective maintenance. Although some advanced instruments can visualize certain invisible malfunctioning phenomena into visible ones, deeply hidden troubles cannot be found unless monitoring and testing data are addressed using tools that process the data statistically, analytically and mathematically. Some state-of-the-art trouble-shooting and life-predicting techniques and approaches are introduced in this paper.

  17. A survey on life prediction of equipment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hu Changhua; Zhou Zhijie; Zhang Jianxun; Si Xiaosheng

    2015-01-01

    Once in the hands of end users, such durable equipment as spacecraft, aircraft, ships, automobiles, computers, etc. are in a state of debugging, working or storage. In either state, avail-ability, reliability and super-efficiency are the ultimate goals, which have been achieved through constant monitoring as well as regular, preventive, routine and corrective maintenance. Although some advanced instruments can visualize certain invisible malfunctioning phenomena into visible ones, deeply hidden troubles cannot be found unless monitoring and testing data are addressed using tools that process the data statistically, analytically and mathematically. Some state-of-the-art trouble-shooting and life-predicting techniques and approaches are introduced in this paper.

  18. Prediction Approach to Life on Wing for Civil Aeroengine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    RONG Xiang; ZUO Hong-fu; ZHANG Hai-jun

    2008-01-01

    To reduce engine maintenance cost and support safe operation, a prediction method of engine life on wing was proposed. This method is a kind of regression model which is a function of the condition monitoring and failure data. Key causes of engine removals were analyzed, and the life limit due to performance deterioration was predicted by proportional hazards model. Then the scheduled removal causes were considered as constraints of engine life to predicte the final life on wing. Application of the proposed prediction method to the case of CF6-80C2A5 engine fleet in an airline proved its effectiveness.

  19. Shelf-Life Prediction of Chilled Foods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudmundsson, Gudmundur; Kristbergsson, Kristberg

    All foods have a finite shelf life. Even foods, which mature with time, will in the end deteriorate, although their life span can exceed 100 years. Definitions of shelf life of food products differ. Some stress the suitability of the product for consump¬tion, others for how long the product can be sold. The Institute of Food Science and Technology emphasizes safety in its definition of shelf life: "The period of time under defined conditions of storage, after manufacture or packing, for which a food product will remain safe and be fit for use" ( http://www.ifst.org ). This definition does not describe what makes a food product "safe" or "fit" for use, but one can say all factors which restrict the shelf life of a food product either affect safety or quality or both.

  20. Entropy and the Predictability of Online Life

    CERN Document Server

    Sinatra, Roberta

    2014-01-01

    Using mobile phone records and information theory measures, our daily lives have been recently shown to follow strict statistical regularities, and our movement patterns are to a large extent predictable. Here, we apply entropy and predictability measures to two data sets of the behavioral actions and the mobility of a large number of players in the virtual universe of a massive multiplayer online game. We find that movements in virtual human lives follow the same high levels of predictability as offline mobility, where future movements can to some extent be predicted well if the temporal correlations of visited places are accounted for. Time series of behavioral actions show similar high levels of predictability, even when temporal correlations are neglected. Entropy conditional on specific behavioral actions reveals that in terms of predictability negative behavior has a wider variety than positive actions. The actions which contain information to best predict an individual's subsequent action are negative,...

  1. Entropy and the Predictability of Online Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberta Sinatra

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Using mobile phone records and information theory measures, our daily lives have been recently shown to follow strict statistical regularities, and our movement patterns are, to a large extent, predictable. Here, we apply entropy and predictability measures to two datasets of the behavioral actions and the mobility of a large number of players in the virtual universe of a massive multiplayer online game. We find that movements in virtual human lives follow the same high levels of predictability as offline mobility, where future movements can, to some extent, be predicted well if the temporal correlations of visited places are accounted for. Time series of behavioral actions show similar high levels of predictability, even when temporal correlations are neglected. Entropy conditional on specific behavioral actions reveals that in terms of predictability, negative behavior has a wider variety than positive actions. The actions that contain the information to best predict an individual’s subsequent action are negative, such as attacks or enemy markings, while the positive actions of friendship marking, trade and communication contain the least amount of predictive information. These observations show that predicting behavioral actions requires less information than predicting the mobility patterns of humans for which the additional knowledge of past visited locations is crucial and that the type and sign of a social relation has an essential impact on the ability to determine future behavior.

  2. 基于Matlab编程实现Arrhenius模型寿命预测%Life Prediction Based on Arrhenius Model with Matlab Programming

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何建新; 李继红; 周堃; 刘静

    2013-01-01

      Arrhenius Model was widely used in accelerated life prediction. The model was programmed using Matlab language and the experimental data was processed with the program. The prediction life and the statistics parameters were provided after Matlab numerical analysis. The data processing was verified using the example data in HG/T 3087-2001. It was concluded that the program is easy in use and valuable in quick data processing.%  Arrhenius模型广泛应用于加速试验寿命预测,利用Matlab语言编程,对Arrhenius模型寿命预测过程数据进行处理。给出了Matlab数值分析程序,计算寿命预测值及相关统计检验参数,并利用HG/T 3087—2001标准中示例的试验数据演示了该程序的计算过程。利用Matlab语言编程进行数据处理可方便快捷地计算出相关预测结果,具有一定的应用价值。

  3. Patterns, entropy, and predictability of human mobility and life.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shao-Meng Qin

    Full Text Available Cellular phones are now offering an ubiquitous means for scientists to observe life: how people act, move and respond to external influences. They can be utilized as measurement devices of individual persons and for groups of people of the social context and the related interactions. The picture of human life that emerges shows complexity, which is manifested in such data in properties of the spatiotemporal tracks of individuals. We extract from smartphone-based data for a set of persons important locations such as "home", "work" and so forth over fixed length time-slots covering the days in the data-set (see also [1], [2]. This set of typical places is heavy-tailed, a power-law distribution with an exponent close to -1.7. To analyze the regularities and stochastic features present, the days are classified for each person into regular, personal patterns. To this are superimposed fluctuations for each day. This randomness is measured by "life" entropy, computed both before and after finding the clustering so as to subtract the contribution of a number of patterns. The main issue that we then address is how predictable individuals are in their mobility. The patterns and entropy are reflected in the predictability of the mobility of the life both individually and on average. We explore the simple approaches to guess the location from the typical behavior, and of exploiting the transition probabilities with time from location or activity A to B. The patterns allow an enhanced predictability, at least up to a few hours into the future from the current location. Such fixed habits are most clearly visible in the working-day length.

  4. Predicting Battery Life for Electric UAVs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper presents a novel battery health management technology for the new generation of electric unmanned aerial vehicles powered by long-life, high-density,...

  5. Predicting remaining life in upper sugar-mill shafts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Rodríguez Pulecio

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available A fracture mechanics-based method is presented for determining critical crack size and residual life of upper sugar-mill shafts having semi-elliptical and circumferential cracks. Due to the multiaxial stress field, an equivalent strain energy release rate stress intensity solution is used in Paris’ law to predict crack growth. Ultrasonic inspection intervals for the shaft were established. The crack zone evaluated was located in the shoulder of the bearing nearest to the square box coupling where about 25% of service failures in these types of shaft are observed.

  6. Predicting young children's quality of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jirojanakul, Pragai; Skevington, Suzanne M; Hudson, John

    2003-10-01

    This paper represents an investigation into the determinants of young children's quality of life (QOL) in Thailand. The empirical work is based upon a sample of 498 children (aged 5-8); 220 were urban children and 278 children of construction workers in Bangkok. Their QOL was assessed using a new self-report QOL measure for children. Multiple regression analyses indicated that the father's income and education, type of school, mode of transportation to school, and the amount of time that the child spent on extra study courses were significant explanatory variables. It was found that these factors had different influences on the QOL of urban children and those of construction workers. Extra sport-related activities and extra work (other than housework) improved the QOL of urban children, while the QOL of construction workers' children was directly linked to father's education and income. This result is consistent with income having a diminishing marginal effect on the QOL of children. There is also evidence that amongst construction workers' children, boys have a lower QOL than girls. The different causal explanations for the QOL of urban and construction workers' children suggests that it is context specific, and what impacts one group of children's QOL within a particular context may not impact another group in a different situation. This has important policy implications. Throughout the study we could find no significant impact of health on QOL-neither chronic, acute nor severe illness has any significant impact on QOL. This is consistent with the hypothesis that QOL is influenced by expectations (Social Science and Medicine 41 (10) (1995) 1403). Findings of the effects of social and environmental factors on children's QOL are new in this field and should be further investigated.

  7. 基于加速寿命试验的液浮陀螺仪寿命预测%Research on Working Life Prediction of Liquid Floated Gyroscope Based on Accelerated Life Tests

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    彭志凌; 杨晋伟; 邵轶群; 范晓东

    2014-01-01

    Taking the liquid floated gyroscope as the research object ,on the basis of analyzing the gyroscope structure features and working principle ,its reliability model was established .Acceleration model and acceler-ated life test plan were determined .Used the temperature and humidity incubator to test and processed the test data ,predicted the working life of liquid floating gyro was 5031 .9 hours by Weibull distribution and maximum likelihood estimation .By using the method ,the cost effectiveness of the liquid floated gyroscope life prediction is improved and provide an important way to predict the life of such products .%以液浮陀螺仪为研究对象,在分析陀螺仪结构功能和工作原理的基础上,建立可靠性模型.确定了工作条件下的加速模型和加速寿命试验方案,利用恒湿恒温箱进行试验,对获取的试验数据进行处理.利用威布尔分布和极大似然估计预测了某液浮陀螺仪的工作寿命为5031.9 h.所采用的的方法提高了液浮陀螺仪寿命预测的费效比,为预测此类产品寿命提供了一种重要方法.

  8. Genetic Risk Score Predicts Late-Life Cognitive Impairment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariegold E. Wollam

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. A family history of Alzheimer’s disease is a significant risk factor for its onset, but the genetic risk associated with possessing multiple risk alleles is still poorly understood. Methods. In a sample of 95 older adults (Mean age = 75.1, 64.2% female, we constructed a genetic risk score based on the accumulation of risk alleles in BDNF, COMT, and APOE. A neuropsychological evaluation and consensus determined cognitive status (44 nonimpaired, 51 impaired. Logistic regression was performed to determine whether the genetic risk score predicted cognitive impairment above and beyond that associated with each gene. Results. An increased genetic risk score was associated with a nearly 4-fold increased risk of cognitive impairment (OR = 3.824, P = .013 when including the individual gene polymorphisms as covariates in the model. Discussion. A risk score combining multiple genetic influences may be more useful in predicting late-life cognitive impairment than individual polymorphisms.

  9. Investigation of Accelerated Life Prediction Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-10-01

    1974, AD 784 188. 2. Rabinowicz , E., McEntire, R. H., and Shwalkar, B., A TECHNIQUE FOR ACCELERATED LIFE TESTING, Trans. ASME, August 1970, pp...706-710. 3. Rabinowicz , E., FRICTION AND WEAR OF MATERIALS, New York, John Wiley and Sons, 1966. 4. MacGregor, C. W. (ed), HANDBOOK OF

  10. Life prediction of thermal-mechanical fatigue using strainrange partitioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halford, G. R.; Manson, S. S.

    1975-01-01

    This paper describes the applicability of the method of Strainrange Partitioning to the life prediction of thermal-mechanical strain-cycling fatigue. An in-phase test on 316 stainless steel is analyzed as an illustrative example. The observed life is in excellent agreement with the life predicted by the method using the recently proposed Step-Stress Method of experimental partitioning, the Interaction Damage Rule, and the life relationships determined at an isothermal temperature of 705 C. Implications of the present study are discussed relative to the general thermal fatigue problem.

  11. Probabilistic Fatigue Life Prediction of Turbine Disc Considering Model Parameter Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Liping; Yu, Le; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Ding, Liangliang; Huang, Hong-Zhong

    2016-06-01

    Aiming to improve the predictive ability of Walker model for fatigue life prediction and taking the turbine disc alloy GH4133 as the application example, this paper investigates a new approach for probabilistic fatigue life prediction when considering parameter uncertainty inherent in the life prediction model. Firstly, experimental data are used to update the model parameters using Bayes' theorem, so as to obtain the posterior probability distribution functions of two parameters of the Walker model, as well to achieve the probabilistic life prediction model for turbine disc. During the updating process, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is used to generate samples of the given distribution and estimating the parameters distinctly. After that, the turbine disc life is predicted using the probabilistic Walker model based on Monte Carlo simulation technique. The experimental results indicate that: (1) after using the small sample test data obtained from turbine disc, parameter uncertainty of the Walker model can be quantified and the corresponding probabilistic model for fatigue life prediction can be established using Bayes' theorem; (2) there exists obvious dispersion of life data for turbine disc when predicting fatigue life in practical engineering application.

  12. Enhanced Prediction of Gear Tooth Surface Fatigue Life Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Sentient will develop an enhanced prediction of gear tooth surface fatigue life with rigorous analysis of the tribological phenomena that contribute to pitting...

  13. A predictive fatigue life model for anodized 7050 aluminium alloy

    OpenAIRE

    Chaussumier, Michel; Mabru, Catherine; Shahzad, Majid; Chieragatti, Rémy; Rezaï-Aria, Farhad

    2013-01-01

    International audience; The objective of this study is to predict fatigue life of anodized 7050 aluminum alloy specimens. In the case of anodized 7050-T7451 alloy, fractographic observations of fatigue tested specimens showed that pickling pits were the predominant sites for crack nucleation and subsequent failure. It has been shown that fatigue failure was favored by the presence of multiple cracks. From these experimental results, a fatigue life predictive model has been developed including...

  14. Review on condition-based equipment residual life prediction and preventive maintenance scheduling%基于状态监测的设备寿命预测与预防维护规划研究进展

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孟光; 尤明懿

    2011-01-01

    Residual life prediction and preventive maintenance scheduling are two research fields that have significant impact on the maintenance efficiency in a condition-based maintenance program. The recently published representative works in these two fields were summarized and categorized. The emerging new research fields such as similarity-based residual life prediction and on-line preventive maintenance scheduling were highlighted. The applicability of the residual life prediction techniques and preventive maintenance scheduling models were discussed. Some necessary and valuable research directions were also provided.%寿命预测和预防维护规划是基于状态监测的维护中对维护效果有重大影响的两个研究内容.对近年来这两方面的代表性工作进行了总结和多层次分类,特别突出“基于相似性的寿命预测方法”和“在线预防维护模型”等正逐步兴起的新的研究领域.进而讨论了各类方法的适用范围,最后展望了一些必要的、有价值的研究方向.

  15. Service life prediction of exterior plastics vision for the future

    CERN Document Server

    Martin, Jon; Chapin, J

    2015-01-01

    This book defines the current state-of-the-art for predicting the lifetime of plastics exposed to weather and outlines future research needed to advance this important field of study. Coverage includes progress in developing new science and test methods to determine how materials respond to weather exposure. This book is ideal for researchers and professionals working in the field of service life prediction. This book also: Examines numerous consensus standards that affect commercial products allowing readers to see the future of standards related to service life prediction Provides the scientific foundation for the latest commercially viable instruments Presents groundbreaking research, including the blueprint of a new test method that will significantly shorten the service life prediction process time Covers two of the latest verified predictive models, which demonstrate realized-potential to transform the field

  16. Predicting life satisfaction of the Angolan elderly: a structural model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutiérrez, M; Tomás, J M; Galiana, L; Sancho, P; Cebrià, M A

    2013-01-01

    Satisfaction with life is of particular interest in the study of old age well-being because it has arisen as an important component of old age. A considerable amount of research has been done to explain life satisfaction in the elderly, and there is growing empirical evidence on best predictors of life satisfaction. This research evaluates the predictive power of some aging process variables, on Angolan elderly people's life satisfaction, while including perceived health into the model. Data for this research come from a cross-sectional survey of elderly people living in the capital of Angola, Luanda. A total of 1003 Angolan elderly were surveyed on socio-demographic information, perceived health, active engagement, generativity, and life satisfaction. A Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes model was built to test variables' predictive power on life satisfaction. The estimated theoretical model fitted the data well. The main predictors were those related to active engagement with others. Perceived health also had a significant and positive effect on life satisfaction. Several processes together may predict life satisfaction in the elderly population of Angola, and the variance accounted for it is large enough to be considered relevant. The key factor associated to life satisfaction seems to be active engagement with others.

  17. Multiaxial Fatigue Life Prediction Based on Damage Mechanics and Critical Plane Method%基于损伤力学-临界面法预估多轴疲劳寿命

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘俭辉; 王生楠; 黄新春; 傅益战

    2015-01-01

    基于损伤力学理论建立的非线性疲劳寿命预估模型在多轴疲劳寿命预估中获得了广泛的应用,但该模型并未考虑损伤面发生的位置及其物理意义,将其与临界面法相结合提出一种新的多轴非线性疲劳寿命预估模型,新模型能够弥补现有的非线性疲劳寿命预估模型未考虑临界面物理意义的不足。新模型从损伤的角度来预估多轴疲劳寿命,不仅考虑了临界面上裂纹形成及扩展的物理意义、相位差对附加强化现象的影响,而且对非对称加载下的平均应变进行修正。新模型仅仅利用单轴疲劳试验数据以及单轴疲劳材料常数就可以预估出试样的多轴疲劳寿命,从而避免了代价高昂的多轴疲劳试验。采用45钢、316不锈钢、钛合金TC4三种材料的多轴疲劳试验数据对提出的模型进行评估和验证,对几种材料比例/非比例以及对称/非对称加载下的多轴疲劳寿命进行预估,预估结果与试验结果的误差都在5%以内,结果表明提出的多轴非线性疲劳寿命预估模型具有较高的预估精度。%The established nonlinear fatigue life prediction model based on the theory of damage mechanics has been widely applied to multiaxial fatigue life prediction. However, this model does not take into account the location of damage and its physical significance. A new multiaxial nonlinear fatigue life prediction model is put forward based on damage mechanics and critical plane method. The new model can make up the shortage of the existing nonlinear fatigue life prediction model, which did not consider the significance of critical plane. The new model predicts multiaxial fatigue life from the perspective of damage. It not only considers the physical significance of crack formation and propagation and the influence of the phase delay on additional strengthening phenomenon, but also revises the mean strain under asymmetrical loading. The new

  18. Life history theory predicts fish assemblage response to hydrologic regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mims, Meryl C; Olden, Julian D

    2012-01-01

    The hydrologic regime is regarded as the primary driver of freshwater ecosystems, structuring the physical habitat template, providing connectivity, framing biotic interactions, and ultimately selecting for specific life histories of aquatic organisms. In the present study, we tested ecological theory predicting directional relationships between major dimensions of the flow regime and life history composition of fish assemblages in perennial free-flowing rivers throughout the continental United States. Using long-term discharge records and fish trait and survey data for 109 stream locations, we found that 11 out of 18 relationships (61%) tested between the three life history strategies (opportunistic, periodic, and equilibrium) and six hydrologic metrics (two each describing flow variability, predictability, and seasonality) were statistically significant (P history strategies, with 82% of all significant relationships observed supporting predictions from life history theory. Specifically, we found that (1) opportunistic strategists were positively related to measures of flow variability and negatively related to predictability and seasonality, (2) periodic strategists were positively related to high flow seasonality and negatively related to variability, and (3) the equilibrium strategists were negatively related to flow variability and positively related to predictability. Our study provides important empirical evidence illustrating the value of using life history theory to understand both the patterns and processes by which fish assemblage structure is shaped by adaptation to natural regimes of variability, predictability, and seasonality of critical flow events over broad biogeographic scales.

  19. Theory of Economic Life Prediction and Reliability Assessment of Aircraft Structures

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAN Chuliang; LIU Kege

    2011-01-01

    The theory of economic life prediction and reliability assessment of aircraft structures has a significant effect on safety of aircraft structures.It is based on the two-stage theory of fatigue process and can guarantee the safety and reliability of structures.According to the fatigue damage process, the fatigue scatter factors of crack initiation stage and crack propagation stage are given respectively.At the same time, mathematical models of fatigue life prediction are presented by utilizing the fatigue scatter factors and full scale test results of aircraft structures.Furthermore, the economic life model is put forward.The model is of significant scientific value for products to provide longer economic life, higher reliability and lower cost.The theory of economic life prediction and reliability assessment of aircraft structures has been successfully applied to determining and extending the structural life for thousands of airplanes.

  20. Evaluation of creep-fatigue life-prediction models for the solar central receiver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyzak, J. M.; Hughes, D. A.

    1981-09-01

    The applicability of several creep fatigue models to life prediction of boiler tubes in a solar central receiver (SCR) was evaluated. The SCR boiler tubes will experience compressive strain dwell loading with hold times up to 6 to 8 hours at temperatures where time dependent deformation will occur. The evaluation criteria include the ability of the model to account for mean stress effects and to be practical in the long life, small strain range regime. A correlation between maximum tensile stress and fatigue life is presented. Using this correlation, compressive dwell behavior is predicted based on continuous cycling data. The limits of this predictive scheme are addressed.

  1. Benchmark notch test for life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domas, P. A.; Yau, J.; Sharpe, W. N.; Ward, M.

    1982-01-01

    Aircraft gas turbine engine components are subjected to severe stress, temperature, and environmental conditions. Economic and reliabilty demands have prompted inordinate effort in development of analytic methods to predict stresses and strains in aircraft engines. There remains, however, the need to check or verify these analytical methodologies against actual experimental data measurements. The laser interferometric strain displacement gage was recognized as having the potential to accomplish this task and was employed in this program. The actual strains incurred at the root of a discontinuity in cyclically loaded test samples subjected to inelastic deformation at high temperature where creep deformation readily occur were measured. The steady-state, cyclic stress-strain response at the root of the discontinuity in the tested samples was analyzed for comparison with the measured results. A comprehensive set of local notch root strain measurements for a variety of load patterns in an Inconel 718 notch specimen at 649 C (1200 F) was obtained and documented using the laser interferometric strain displacement gage.

  2. Probabilistic methods for service life predictions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siemes, A.J.M.

    1999-01-01

    Nowadays it is commonly accepted that the safety of structures should be expressed in terms of reli-ability. This means as the probability of failure. In literature [1, 2, 3, and 4] the bases have been given for the calculation of the failure probability. Making probabilistic calculations can be don

  3. A new model for the life prediction of GH4133 under TMF conditions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Thermal mechanical cyclic strain tests were carried out under in-phase and out-of-phase conditions on a Nickel-base Superalloy GH4133 in the temperature range of 571-823℃. Based on analyzing the present models of TMF (thermal mechanical fatigue) life prediction, a new model for predicting nickel-base superalloy TMF lifetime was proposed.TMF life of superalloy GH4133 was calculated accurately based on the new model. Experimental TMF life has been compared with the calculatedresults and all results fall in the scatter band of 1.5. The calculating results show that the new model is not only simple, but also precise. This model will play great roles in life prediction of the metal materials and the engineering components subjected to non-isothermal service conditions.

  4. Application of time-temperature superposition method in thermal aging life prediction of shipboard cables

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DENG Wen-dong; CHEN Yi-yuan

    2014-01-01

    The life of shipboard cables will decrease due to the complex aging processes. In terms of the safety perspective, remaining life prediction of the cable is essential to maintain a reliable operation. In this paper, firstly, based on Arrhenius equation, residual life of new styrene-butadiene cable is calculated;result indicates that the degradation rate which changes with time is proportional to thermal temperature. Then second order dynamic model is adopted into the residual life prediction, combined with the time-temperature superposition method (TTSP), and a new residual life model is proposed. According to the accelerated thermal aging experiment data and Arrhenius equation, TTSP method demonstrates to be an efficient way for life prediction, and life at normal temperature can be estimated by this model. In order to monitor the state of styrene-butadiene cable more accurately, an improved residual life model based on equivalent environment temperature of cable is proposed, and life of cable under real operation is analyzed. Result indicates that this model is credible and reliable, and it provides an important theoretical base for residual life of cables.

  5. Neural Network Modeling to Predict Shelf Life of Greenhouse Lettuce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Chin Lin

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Greenhouse-grown butter lettuce (Lactuca sativa L. can potentially be stored for 21 days at constant 0°C. When storage temperature was increased to 5°C or 10°C, shelf life was shortened to 14 or 10 days, respectively, in our previous observations. Also, commercial shelf life of 7 to 10 days is common, due to postharvest temperature fluctuations. The objective of this study was to establish neural network (NN models to predict the remaining shelf life (RSL under fluctuating postharvest temperatures. A box of 12 - 24 lettuce heads constituted a sample unit. The end of the shelf life of each head was determined when it showed initial signs of decay or yellowing. Air temperatures inside a shipping box were recorded. Daily average temperatures in storage and averaged shelf life of each box were used as inputs, and the RSL was modeled as an output. An R2 of 0.57 could be observed when a simple NN structure was employed. Since the "future" (or remaining storage temperatures were unavailable at the time of making a prediction, a second NN model was introduced to accommodate a range of future temperatures and associated shelf lives. Using such 2-stage NN models, an R2 of 0.61 could be achieved for predicting RSL. This study indicated that NN modeling has potential for cold chain quality control and shelf life prediction.

  6. A method for uncertainty quantification in the life prediction of gas turbine components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lodeby, K.; Isaksson, O.; Jaervstraat, N. [Volvo Aero Corporation, Trolhaettan (Sweden)

    1998-12-31

    A failure in an aircraft jet engine can have severe consequences which cannot be accepted and high requirements are therefore raised on engine reliability. Consequently, assessment of the reliability of life predictions used in design and maintenance are important. To assess the validity of the predicted life a method to quantify the contribution to the total uncertainty in the life prediction from different uncertainty sources is developed. The method is a structured approach for uncertainty quantification that uses a generic description of the life prediction process. It is based on an approximate error propagation theory combined with a unified treatment of random and systematic errors. The result is an approximate statistical distribution for the predicted life. The method is applied on life predictions for three different jet engine components. The total uncertainty became of reasonable order of magnitude and a good qualitative picture of the distribution of the uncertainty contribution from the different sources was obtained. The relative importance of the uncertainty sources differs between the three components. It is also highly dependent on the methods and assumptions used in the life prediction. Advantages and disadvantages of this method is discussed. (orig.) 11 refs.

  7. Prediction and evaluation of route dependent dosimetry of BPA in rats at different life stages using a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Xiaoxia, E-mail: Xiaoxia.Yang@fda.hhs.gov; Doerge, Daniel R.; Fisher, Jeffrey W.

    2013-07-01

    Bisphenol A (BPA) has received considerable attention throughout the last decade due to its widespread use in consumer products. For the first time a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was developed in neonatal and adult rats to quantitatively evaluate age-dependent pharmacokinetics of BPA and its phase II metabolites. The PBPK model was calibrated in adult rats using studies on BPA metabolism and excretion in the liver and gastrointestinal tract, and pharmacokinetic data with BPA in adult rats. For immature rats the hepatic and gastrointestinal metabolism of BPA was inferred from studies on the maturation of phase II enzymes coupled with serum time course data in pups. The calibrated model predicted the measured serum concentrations of BPA and BPA conjugates after administration of 100 μg/kg of d6-BPA in adult rats (oral gavage and intravenous administration) and postnatal days 3, 10, and 21 pups (oral gavage). The observed age-dependent BPA serum concentrations were partially attributed to the immature metabolic capacity of pups. A comparison of the dosimetry of BPA across immature rats and monkeys suggests that dose adjustments would be necessary to extrapolate toxicity studies from neonatal rats to infant humans. - Highlights: • A PBPK model predicts the kinetics of bisphenol A (BPA) in young and adult rats. • BPA metabolism within enterocytes is required for fitting of oral BPA kinetic data. • BPA dosimetry in young rats is different than adult rats and young monkeys.

  8. Life Prediction of Ball Grid Array Soldered Joints under Thermal Cycling Loading by Fracture Mechanics Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Fatigue crack propagation life of ball grid array (BGA) soldered joints during thermal cycling loading was investigated by fracture mechanics approach using finite element analysis. The relationships between the strain energy release rate (G) and crack size (α), thermal cycle numbers (N) can be derived. Based on the relationships, fatigue life of the soldered joints was determined. The results showed that crack propagation life was higher than crack initiation life. Therefore, it appears that it is more appropriate to predict the fatigue life of soldered joints using the fracture mechanics method.

  9. Purpose in life predicts better emotional recovery from negative stimuli.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stacey M Schaefer

    Full Text Available Purpose in life predicts both health and longevity suggesting that the ability to find meaning from life's experiences, especially when confronting life's challenges, may be a mechanism underlying resilience. Having purpose in life may motivate reframing stressful situations to deal with them more productively, thereby facilitating recovery from stress and trauma. In turn, enhanced ability to recover from negative events may allow a person to achieve or maintain a feeling of greater purpose in life over time. In a large sample of adults (aged 36-84 years from the MIDUS study (Midlife in the U.S., http://www.midus.wisc.edu/, we tested whether purpose in life was associated with better emotional recovery following exposure to negative picture stimuli indexed by the magnitude of the eyeblink startle reflex (EBR, a measure sensitive to emotional state. We differentiated between initial emotional reactivity (during stimulus presentation and emotional recovery (occurring after stimulus offset. Greater purpose in life, assessed over two years prior, predicted better recovery from negative stimuli indexed by a smaller eyeblink after negative pictures offset, even after controlling for initial reactivity to the stimuli during the picture presentation, gender, age, trait affect, and other well-being dimensions. These data suggest a proximal mechanism by which purpose in life may afford protection from negative events and confer resilience is through enhanced automatic emotion regulation after negative emotional provocation.

  10. Reengineering Aircraft Structural Life Prediction Using a Digital Twin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric J. Tuegel

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Reengineering of the aircraft structural life prediction process to fully exploit advances in very high performance digital computing is proposed. The proposed process utilizes an ultrahigh fidelity model of individual aircraft by tail number, a Digital Twin, to integrate computation of structural deflections and temperatures in response to flight conditions, with resulting local damage and material state evolution. A conceptual model of how the Digital Twin can be used for predicting the life of aircraft structure and assuring its structural integrity is presented. The technical challenges to developing and deploying a Digital Twin are discussed in detail.

  11. FORMULASI TEPUNG PENYALUT BERBASIS TEPUNG JAGUNG DAN PENENTUAN UMUR SIMPANNYA DENGAN PENDEKATAN KADAR AIR KRITIS [Formulation of Corn Flour-Based Batter and Prediction of Its Shelf Life using Critical Moisture Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sugiyono1*

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this study were to obtain the best formula for corn flour-based batter and to predict its shelf life using critical moisture approach. According to a hedonic test, the best batter formula was composed of 60% corn flour, 12.5% rice flour, 12.5% tapioca starch, and 15% glutinous rice flour. Addition of glutinous rice flour in the formula changed the proportion of amylose and amylopectin in the batter. As a result, the retrogradation of the batter decreased and the texture of its fried product was preferred. A critical moisture approach was used to predict the shelf life of the batter. The critical moisture content of the batter was 0.16 g H2O/g solid.The isotherm sorption phenomenon of the batter was best described using Hasley model. The shelf life of the product was 7 months when packaged in polypropylene (0,07 g/m2day.mmHg at 85% RH.

  12. Progressive Failure And Life Prediction of Ceramic and Textile Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, David Y.; Shi, Yucheng; Katikala, Madhu; Johnston, William M., Jr.; Card, Michael F.

    1998-01-01

    An engineering approach to predict the fatigue life and progressive failure of multilayered composite and textile laminates is presented. Analytical models which account for matrix cracking, statistical fiber failures and nonlinear stress-strain behavior have been developed for both composites and textiles. The analysis method is based on a combined micromechanics, fracture mechanics and failure statistics analysis. Experimentally derived empirical coefficients are used to account for the interface of fiber and matrix, fiber strength, and fiber-matrix stiffness reductions. Similar approaches were applied to textiles using Repeating Unit Cells. In composite fatigue analysis, Walker's equation is applied for matrix fatigue cracking and Heywood's formulation is used for fiber strength fatigue degradation. The analysis has been compared with experiment with good agreement. Comparisons were made with Graphite-Epoxy, C/SiC and Nicalon/CAS composite materials. For textile materials, comparisons were made with triaxial braided and plain weave materials under biaxial or uniaxial tension. Fatigue predictions were compared with test data obtained from plain weave C/SiC materials tested at AS&M. Computer codes were developed to perform the analysis. Composite Progressive Failure Analysis for Laminates is contained in the code CPFail. Micromechanics Analysis for Textile Composites is contained in the code MicroTex. Both codes were adapted to run as subroutines for the finite element code ABAQUS and CPFail-ABAQUS and MicroTex-ABAQUS. Graphic user interface (GUI) was developed to connect CPFail and MicroTex with ABAQUS.

  13. FATIGUE LIFE PREDICTION THEORY OF COMPOSITE LAMINATES AND EXPERIMENTAL VERIFICATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    According to traditional phenomenological fatigue methodology and modern continuum damage mechanics theory, dual fatigue cumulative damage rules to predict fatigue damage formation and propagation lives of the notched composite laminates are presented.A 3-dimensional damage constitutive equation of anisotropic composites is also established.Damage strain energy release rate is interpreted as a driving force of the fatigue delamination damage propagation.A new damage evolution equation and a damage propagation (a-(m-N( surface (stress amplitude-mean stress-life surface) are derived.Hence, using the method above, the fatigue life of composite components can be predicted.Finally, theoretically predicted results are compared with experimental data.It is found that the deviation of theoretic prediction from experimental results is about 22%.

  14. Service life prediction and fibre reinforced cementitious composites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stoklund Larsen, E.

    The present Ph.D.thesis addresses the service life concept on the fibre reinforced cementitious composites. The advantages and problems of adding fibre to a cementitious matrix and the influence on service life are described. In SBI Report 221, Service life prediction and cementitious somposites......, the factors affecting the pure cementitious composite are described. Different sizes and types of fibre reinforced crmentitious composites have been chosen to illustrate different ageing and deterioration mechanisms. Some ageing mechanisms can be accelerated and others cannot which is demonstrated in a test...

  15. Reengineering Aircraft Structural Life Prediction Using a Digital Twin

    OpenAIRE

    Eric J. Tuegel; Anthony R. Ingraffea; Eason, Thomas G.; S. Michael Spottswood

    2011-01-01

    Reengineering of the aircraft structural life prediction process to fully exploit advances in very high performance digital computing is proposed. The proposed process utilizes an ultrahigh fidelity model of individual aircraft by tail number, a Digital Twin, to integrate computation of structural deflections and temperatures in response to flight conditions, with resulting local damage and material state evolution. A conceptual model of how the Digital Twin can be used for predicting the lif...

  16. 状态维修理论及剩余寿命预测的研究现状与展望%Condition-Based Maintenance Theory and Research Status and Prospect About Prediction of Residual Useful Life

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张仕新; 昝翔; 李浩; 韩朝帅

    2014-01-01

    To improve availability in the premises of keeping reliability, a condition-based maintenance (CBM) methods based on residual useful life (RUL) prediction is proposed. Introduce theory of CBM, including basic principle, open system architecture, production and development of CBM. Analyze research status of RUL prediction, which is the key of CBM. The methods for prediction of RUL are summarized based on their different theory of prediction. And characteristic of every method is evaluated. The analysis result shows the research can improve RUL prediction. It is forward that methods based on mix-models for prediction, methods under non-completed conditions for prediction and dynamic-models for prediction of RUL are supposed to be the research in need of improvement based on result from analysis about current research status.%为了在保证装备可靠性的前提下提高其可用度,提出一种基于剩余寿命(residual useful life,RUL)预测的状态维修(condition-based maintenance,CBM)方法。介绍了状态维修相关理论,包括基本原理、开放式体系结构,以及状态维修的产生和发展;分析了状态维修研究重点--剩余寿命预测的研究现状,按照不同预测理论对剩余寿命预测方法进行了总结,并对不同方法的特点做了评价。分析结果表明:该研究促进了RUL预测的发展,并提出了RUL下一步应在基于多种模型组合的预测方法、不完备条件下的预测方法和剩余寿命动态预测模型等方面加强研究。

  17. Prediction based on mean subset

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øjelund, Henrik; Brown, P. J.; Madsen, Henrik;

    2002-01-01

    , it is found that the proposed mean subset method has superior prediction performance than prediction based on the best subset method, and in some settings also better than the ridge regression and lasso methods. The conclusions drawn from the Monte Carlo study is corroborated in an example in which prediction......Shrinkage methods have traditionally been applied in prediction problems. In this article we develop a shrinkage method (mean subset) that forms an average of regression coefficients from individual subsets of the explanatory variables. A Bayesian approach is taken to derive an expression of how...

  18. Evaluation of corrosion fatigue and life prediction of lower arm for automotive suspension component

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yong-Sang; Kim, Jung-Gu

    2017-01-01

    Lower arm is one of the suspension components of automobile. It is suffered from driving vibration and corrosive environment, namely corrosion fatigue. In this study, corrosion fatigue property of lower arm was investigated, and a modified model based on Palmgren-Miner rule was developed to predict the lifetimes of corrosion fatigue. The corrosion fatigue life of lower arm was about 1/6 times shorter than fatigue life. Based on the results of corrosion fatigue tests and meteorological data in Seoul and Halifax, the corrosion fatigue life of lower arm was predicted. The satisfaction of 10-year and 300,000 km warranty was dominated by the climate of automobile driving. This prediction indicates that the weather condition or driving condition influences the life of automotive parts. Therefore, to determine the warranty of automotive parts, the driving condition has to be carefully considered.

  19. Survey on damage mechanics models for fatigue life prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Silitonga, S.; Maljaars, J.; Soetens, F.; Snijder, H.H.

    2013-01-01

    Engineering methods to predict the fatigue life of structures have been available since the beginning of the 20th century. However, a practical problem arises from complex loading conditions and a significant concern is the accuracy of the methods under variable amplitude loading. This paper provide

  20. Life Prediction Issues in Thermal/Environmental Barrier Coatings in Ceramic Matrix Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Ashwin R.; Brewer, David N.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.

    2001-01-01

    Issues and design requirements for the environmental barrier coating (EBC)/thermal barrier coating (TBC) life that are general and those specific to the NASA Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) development program have been described. The current state and trend of the research, methods in vogue related to the failure analysis, and long-term behavior and life prediction of EBCITBC systems are reported. Also, the perceived failure mechanisms, variables, and related uncertainties governing the EBCITBC system life are summarized. A combined heat transfer and structural analysis approach based on the oxidation kinetics using the Arrhenius theory is proposed to develop a life prediction model for the EBC/TBC systems. Stochastic process-based reliability approach that includes the physical variables such as gas pressure, temperature, velocity, moisture content, crack density, oxygen content, etc., is suggested. Benefits of the reliability-based approach are also discussed in the report.

  1. Capacity-loss diagnostic and life-time prediction in lithium-ion batteries: Part 1. Development of a capacity-loss diagnostic method based on open-circuit voltage analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tiansi; Pei, Lei; Wang, Tingting; Lu, Rengui; Zhu, Chunbo

    2016-01-01

    Effective capacity-loss diagnosis and life-time prediction are the foundations of battery second-use technology and will play an important role in the development of the new energy industry. Of the two, the capacity-loss diagnostic, as a precondition of the life-time prediction, needs to be studied first. Performing a capacity-loss diagnosis for an aging cell consists of finding the decisive degradation mechanisms for the cell's capacity degradation. Because a cell's capacity just equals the span of the open-circuit voltage (OCV), when suspect degradation mechanisms affect a cell's capacity, they will leave corresponding and particular clues in the OCV curve. Taking a cell's OCV as the diagnostic indicator, a multi-mechanistic and non-destructive diagnostic method is developed in this paper. To establish an unambiguous relationship between OCV changes and the combinations of the decisive mechanisms, all the possible OCV changes under various aging situations are systematically analyzed based on a novel simultaneous coordinate system, in which the effects of each suspect capacity-loss mechanism on the OCV curve can be clearly represented. As a summary of the analysis results, a straightforward diagnostic flowchart is presented. By following the flowchart, an aging cell can be diagnosed within three steps by observation of the OCV changes.

  2. Life in the Mosaic: Predicting changes in estuarine nursery production for juvenile fishes in response to sea-level rise with a landscape-based habitat production model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Identification of critical habitat in estuarine fish nursery areas is an important conservation and management objective, yet response to changes in critical habitat is both equally important and harder to predict. Habitat can be viewed as a mosaic of both temporally variable en...

  3. DNA Sequencing and Predictions of the Cosmic Theory of Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickramasinghe, N. Chandra

    The theory of cometary panspermia, developed by the late Sir Fred Hoyle and the present author argues that life originated cosmically as a unique event in one of a great multitude of comets or planetary bodies in the Universe. Life on Earth did not originate here but was introduced by impacting comets, and its further evolution was driven by the subsequent acquisition of cosmically derived genes. Explicit predictions of this theory published in 1979-1981, stating how the acquisition of new genes drives evolution, are compared with recent developments in relation to horizontal gene transfer, and the role of retroviruses in evolution. Precisely-stated predictions of the theory of cometary panspermia are shown to have been verified.

  4. Fracture Mechanics Prediction of Fatigue Life of Aluminum Highway Bridges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rom, Søren; Agerskov, Henning

    2015-01-01

    Fracture mechanics prediction of the fatigue life of aluminum highway bridges under random loading is studied. The fatigue life of welded joints has been determined from fracture mechanics analyses and the results obtained have been compared with results from experimental investigations....... The fatigue life of welded plate specimens has been investigated. Both the fracture mechanics analyses and the fatigue tests have been carried out using load histories, which correspond to one week's traffic loading, determined by means of strain gauge measurements on the deck structure of the Farø Bridges...... in Denmark. The results obtained from the fracture mechanics analyses show a significant difference between constant amplitude and variable amplitude results. Both the fracture mechanics analyses and the results of the fatigue tests carried out indicate that Miner's rule, which is normally used in the design...

  5. Life prediction of advanced materials for gas turbine application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zamrik, S.Y.; Ray, A.; Koss, D.A.

    1995-12-31

    Emphasis is placed on life characterization based on low cycle fatigue under isothermal conditions and thermomechanical fatigue. Microstructure of failed coated and uncoated specimens is being analyzed. IN 738 LC is the material; the coating is either overlay (NiCoCrAly) or NiAl-based aluminide.

  6. 基于 ENN 和 UKF 的电子部件剩余使用寿命预测%Residual Useful Life Prediction for Electronic Component Based on ENN and UKF

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李文峰; 许爱强; 尹晋; 朱广辉

    2016-01-01

    A new method based on the methods of ensemble neural networks and unscented Kalman filter is proposed for predicting the residual useful life based on the unscented Kalman filter with unknown measurement noise under the condi -tion of partially observable information .Firstly ,in combination with the equipment performance degradation data ,a state of the group of observed data is generated ,and the bootstrap technique is used to construct of a plurality of groups of data ,the integrated neural network training state observation data sets are adopted to estimate the measurement noise optimal range according to the formula .Secondly ,the residual life prediction and probability density distribution of the nonlinear system are realized by embedding the standard error of measurement noise as the unknown parameters into the framework of un -scented Kalman filter lifetime prediction .Finally ,the validity and feasibility of the proposed method is verified by the simula-tion of the life of the lithiumion battery .%针对部分可观测信息条件下量测噪声未知时非线性滤波剩余寿命预测的问题,提出了一种基于集成神经网络(ENN)和无迹卡尔曼滤波(UKF)的寿命预测方法。首先,结合设备性能退化量测数据,生成状态-观测数据组,并利用bootstrap 技术构建多个数据组,采用集成神经网络训练状态-观测数据组,根据推导公式估计量测噪声标准差的最优取值范围;其次,将量测噪声标准差作为未知参数嵌入在无迹卡尔曼滤波寿命预测框架中,实现非线性系统的剩余寿命预测及概率密度分布;最后,选取电子部件锂电池进行寿命预测仿真验证了该方法的有效性和可行性。

  7. A new Cumulative Damage Model for Fatigue Life Prediction under Shot Peening Treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul-Jabar H. Ali

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, fatigue damage accumulation were studied using many methods i.e.Corton-Dalon (CD,Corton-Dalon-Marsh(CDM, new non-linear model and experimental method. The prediction of fatigue lifetimes based on the two classical methods, Corton-Dalon (CDandCorton-Dalon-Marsh (CDM, are uneconomic and non-conservative respectively. However satisfactory predictions were obtained by applying the proposed non-linear model (present model for medium carbon steel compared with experimental work. Many shortcomings of the two classical methods are related to their inability to take into account the surface treatment effect as shot peening. It is clear that the new model shows that a much better and conservative prediction of fatigue life in comparison with CD and CDM methods. The prediction of the present model gave slightly below the experimental data while the CDM gave overestimate prediction and CD showed strongly underestimates the life of specimens.

  8. Life prediction of advanced materials for gas turbine application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zamrik, S.Y.; Ray, A.; Koss, D.A. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

    1995-10-01

    Most of the studies on the low cycle fatigue life prediction have been reported under isothermal conditions where the deformation of the material is strain dependent. In the development of gas turbines, components such as blades and vanes are exposed to temperature variations in addition to strain cycling. As a result, the deformation process becomes temperature and strain dependent. Therefore, the life of the component becomes sensitive to temperature-strain cycling which produces a process known as {open_quotes}thermomechanical fatigue, or TMF{close_quotes}. The TMF fatigue failure phenomenon has been modeled using conventional fatigue life prediction methods, which are not sufficiently accurate to quantitatively establish an allowable design procedure. To add to the complexity of TMF life prediction, blade and vane substrates are normally coated with aluminide, overlay or thermal barrier type coatings (TBC) where the durability of the component is dominated by the coating/substrate constitutive response and by the fatigue behavior of the coating. A number of issues arise from TMF depending on the type of temperature/strain phase cycle: (1) time-dependent inelastic behavior can significantly affect the stress response. For example, creep relaxation during a tensile or compressive loading at elevated temperatures leads to a progressive increase in the mean stress level under cyclic loading. (2) the mismatch in elastic and thermal expansion properties between the coating and the substrate can lead to significant deviations in the coating stress levels due to changes in the elastic modulii. (3) the {open_quotes}dry{close_quotes} corrosion resistance coatings applied to the substrate may act as primary crack initiation sites. Crack initiation in the coating is a function of the coating composition, its mechanical properties, creep relaxation behavior, thermal strain range and the strain/temperature phase relationship.

  9. Half-life predictions for decay modes of superheavy nuclei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duarte, S.B.; Tavares, O.A.P. [Centro Brasileiro de Pesquisas Fisicas (CBPF), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Goncalves, M. [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Rodriguez, O.; Guzman, F. [Instituto Superior de Ciencias e Tecnologia Nucleares (InSTEC), La Habana (Cuba); Barbosa, T.N.; Garcia, F.; Dimarco, A. [Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz, Ilheus, BA (Brazil). Dept. de Ciencias Exatas e Tecnologicas

    2004-09-01

    We applied the Effective Liquid Drop Model (ELDM) to predict the alpha-decay, cluster emission and cold fission half-life-values of nuclei in the region of Superheavy Elements (SHE). The present calculations have been made in the region of the ZN-plane defined by 155 <=N <=220 and 110<=Z<=135. Shell effects are included via the Q-value of the corresponding decay case. We report the results of a systematic calculation of the half-life for the three nuclear decay modes in a region of the ZN-plane where superheavy elements are expected to be found. Results have shown that, among the decay modes investigated here, the alpha decay is the dominant one. i.e, the decay mode of smallest half-lives. Half-life predictions for alpha decay, cluster emission and cold fission for the isotopic family of the most recent SHE detected of Z=115 and for the isotopic family of the already consolidated SHE of Z=111 are presented. (author)

  10. A computational approach for thermomechanical fatigue life prediction of dissimilarly welded superheater tubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krishnasamy, Ram-Kumar; Seifert, Thomas; Siegele, Dieter [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Werkstoffmechanik (IWM), Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany)

    2010-07-01

    In this paper a computational approach for fatigue life prediction of dissimilarly welded superheater tubes is presented and applied to a dissimilar weld between tubes made of the nickel base alloy Alloy617 tube and the 12% chromium steel VM12. The approach comprises the calculation of the residual stresses in the welded tubes with a multi-pass dissimilar welding simulation, the relaxation of the residual stresses in a post weld heat treatment (PWHT) simulation and the fatigue life prediction using the remaining residual stresses as initial condition. A cyclic fiscoplasticity model is used to calculate the transient stresses and strains under thermocyclic service loadings. The fatigue life is predicted with a damage parameter which is based on fracture mechanics. The adjustable parameters of the model are determined based on LCF and TMF experiments. The simulations show, that the residual stresses that remain after PWHT further relax in the first loading cycles. The predicted fatigue lives depend on the residual stresses and, thus, on the choice of the loading cycle in which the damage parameter is evaluated. It the first loading cycle, where residual stresses are still present, is considered, lower fatigue lives are predicted compared to predictions considering loading cycles with relaxed residual stresses. (orig.)

  11. 基于断裂力学方法的粉末盘低周疲劳寿命预测%Fracture Mechanics Method Based LCF Life Prediction for Powder Metallurgy Disks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    任远; 张成成; 高靖云; 李孟光

    2016-01-01

    The traditional life prediction methods lack the consideration for inclusion influence in powder metal-lurgy ( PM) . To overcome this shortcoming, the computational fracture mechanics is used to simulate the propaga-tion process, which ranges from initial size to detectable size, of an inclusion-induced defect in a PM labyrinth seal disk. The number of cycles corresponding to the propagation process is considered as the crack initiation life. The initiation life of the crack originating from the initial inclusion is 1639 cycles when using the modification model of crack growth rate for small cracks, and the result is 4956 cycles if the modification model is not adopted. It indi-cates that ignoring the “small crack effect” can lead to a dangerous estimate of crack initiation life. Furthermore, the establishment of crack-embedded finite element models and the chosen of integration path for crack propagation life estimation are also discussed. Fracture mechanics based crack propagation life prediction needs many repeated finite element calculations and smoothing treatments for crack fronts, so it is time consuming and labor intensive. However, its advantage in precise and quantitative analysis makes it a favorable supplement to current methods and it is helpful when determining the time between overhauls for life-limited parts.%为克服传统寿命预测未能考虑粉末合金夹杂物的缺陷,在某粉末封严盘定寿过程中,使用计算断裂力学方法模拟了夹杂缺陷从初始状态一直增大到可检尺度的扩展过程,并将该过程经历的循环数作为裂纹萌生寿命。在考虑小裂纹扩展速率修正的情况下萌生寿命为1639循环,若不采用修正则为4956循环,说明忽略“小裂纹效应”会得出偏于危险的萌生寿命计算结果。对含裂纹有限元模型的建立、裂纹扩展寿命计算中积分路径的选取等问题进行了讨论。使用断裂力学方法预测裂纹萌生寿命需要

  12. Void damage model and service life prediction for solid high polymer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Based on the analysis of three void damage variety models, this note presents ( i ) a method that regards the void content as a damage variation of the grain and ( ii ) a geometric model for micro-unit of void damage. Equations of the void damage variety containing void content are analyzed. This work is focused on the measurement of internal damage level and the damage variety estimation is directly related to the life predication in the practical engineering applications. Nowadays, the critical service life of the solid grain/polymers is usually presumed at domestic and international level. The strength or strain reduction of 20%or the stabilizer consumption of 50% is generally regarded as a critical storage life of the solid grain/polymers, and the service life is predicted by the extrapolation method on Anhenius formula. The applications, however, show that the above method is unreliable and has significant errors. With the aid of the discontiguous automatic measuring device of real time volume deformation and void content, the master curve of void damage variety, the storage service life and the surplus life of a solid rocket grain are obtained. Since the critical storage life has been measured, and the accuracy of the service life prediction has been greatly increased. It is a novel ideal and a break-through technique.

  13. Service life prediction for the neoprene base on SE%基于强韧度的特种氯丁橡胶使用寿命预测研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    余超; 文庆珍; 朱金华; 余红伟; 王小军

    2011-01-01

    通过对特种氯丁橡胶在热空气中进行实验室加速老化实验,研究了特种氯丁橡胶的强韧度随老化时间的变化规律,得到了该材料在热空气中老化的强韧度随老化时间的变化的数学关系式,依据实验得到的老化动力学参数,对特种氯丁橡胶以强韧度(SE)为指标进行了寿命预测.研究结果表明:在不同温度下老化,该橡胶的强韧度与老化时间(t)的数学表达式为:强韧度=35exp(-1.7×10-4t0.889),预测在25℃下该氯丁橡胶的使用寿命为31.2 a.%The accelerated aging tests of the neoprene were carried in laboratory.The mechanical properties of the aging neoprene were measured.The rule of SE and aging time was studied.The service life prediction functions of CR were established and service life at 25 ℃ was estimated basing on the index of SE.The result showed that mathematic relation of SE and aging time fit SE= 35exp(-1.7 ×10-4t0.89) ,and the service life of CR at 25 ℃ was 31.2 years.

  14. CARES/LIFE Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Janosik, Lesley A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2003-01-01

    This manual describes the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction (CARES/LIFE) computer program. The program calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. CARES/LIFE is an extension of the CARES (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN, ABAQUS, and ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker law. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled by using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. The probabilistic time-dependent theories used in CARES/LIFE, along with the input and output for CARES/LIFE, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various features of the program are also included.

  15. Fatigue life prediction of crankshaft repaired by twin arc spraying

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Guo-qing; WANG Cheng-tao; PU Geng-qiang

    2005-01-01

    This paper used Baumel Jr. and Seeger's approach estimating fatigue parameters of 48MnV with 3Cr13coatings. The fatigue life of the crankshaft of a six-cylinder engine, repaired by twin arc spraying 3cr13 deposits, is respectively calculated using different damage model such as S-N method, normal strain approaches, SWT-Bannantine approaches, shear strain approaches, and fatemi-Socie method based on dynamical simulation and FE analysis of crankshaft. The results indicate that the traditional calculation is conservative and that the life of crankshaft repaired by arc spraying is sufficient.

  16. Cumulative early life adversity predicts longevity in wild baboons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tung, Jenny; Archie, Elizabeth A; Altmann, Jeanne; Alberts, Susan C

    2016-04-19

    In humans and other animals, harsh circumstances in early life predict morbidity and mortality in adulthood. Multiple adverse conditions are thought to be especially toxic, but this hypothesis has rarely been tested in a prospective, longitudinal framework, especially in long-lived mammals. Here we use prospective data on 196 wild female baboons to show that cumulative early adversity predicts natural adult lifespan. Females who experience ≥3 sources of early adversity die a median of 10 years earlier than females who experience ≤1 adverse circumstances (median lifespan is 18.5 years). Females who experience the most adversity are also socially isolated in adulthood, suggesting that social processes partially explain the link between early adversity and adult survival. Our results provide powerful evidence for the developmental origins of health and disease and indicate that close ties between early adversity and survival arise even in the absence of health habit and health care-related explanations.

  17. Development of a Generic Creep-Fatigue Life Prediction Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Tarun

    2002-01-01

    The objective of this research proposal is to further compile creep-fatigue data of steel alloys and superalloys used in military aircraft engines and/or rocket engines and to develop a statistical multivariate equation. The newly derived model will be a probabilistic fit to all the data compiled from various sources. Attempts will be made to procure the creep-fatigue data from NASA Glenn Research Center and other sources to further develop life prediction models for specific alloy groups. In a previous effort [1-3], a bank of creep-fatigue data has been compiled and tabulated under a range of known test parameters. These test parameters are called independent variables, namely; total strain range, strain rate, hold time, and temperature. The present research attempts to use these variables to develop a multivariate equation, which will be a probabilistic equation fitting a large database. The data predicted by the new model will be analyzed using the normal distribution fits, the closer the predicted lives are with the experimental lives (normal line 1 to 1 fit) the better the prediction. This will be evaluated in terms of a coefficient of correlation, R 2 as well. A multivariate equation developed earlier [3] has the following form, where S, R, T, and H have specific meaning discussed later.

  18. Personality Predicts Health Declines Through Stressful Life Events During Late Mid-Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iacovino, Juliette M; Bogdan, Ryan; Oltmanns, Thomas F

    2016-08-01

    Personality predicts the occurrence of dependent stressful life events (SLE; i.e., events reliant, at least in part, on an individual's behavior). This process, termed stress generation, contributes to psychiatric outcomes, but its role in physical health is unknown. Data were included from 998 participants (aged 55-64) in the St. Louis Personality and Aging Network (SPAN) study. Assessments occurred every 6 months for 18 months. Neuroticism, impulsivity, and agreeableness were measured with the Revised NEO Personality Inventory. Dependent (e.g., divorce) and independent (e.g., family death) SLE occurring within 6 months following baseline were assessed with the List of Threatening Experiences and confirmed by interviews. Health problems occurring within a year after SLE were the outcome. Analyses examined whether neuroticism, impulsivity, and agreeableness indirectly predict the onset of new health problems through exposure to dependent SLE. Each personality trait was associated with dependent, but not independent, SLE. Only dependent SLE predicted new health problems. Each personality trait indirectly predicted the onset of new health problems through dependent SLE. Findings suggest that personality-driven stress generation influences physical health during late mid-life. Addressing personality in interventions may reduce the occurrence of SLE, in turn decreasing health risks.

  19. Physical/chemical modeling for photovoltaic module life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moacanin, J.; Carroll, W. F.; Gupta, A.

    1979-01-01

    The paper presents a generalized methodology for identification and evaluation of potential degradation and failure of terrestrial photovoltaic encapsulation. Failure progression modeling and an interaction matrix are utilized to complement the conventional approach to failure degradation mode identification. Comparison of the predicted performance based on these models can produce: (1) constraints on system or component design, materials or operating conditions, (2) qualification (predicted satisfactory function), and (3) uncertainty. The approach has been applied to an investigation of an unexpected delamination failure; it is being used to evaluate thermomechanical interactions in photovoltaic modules and to study corrosion of contacts and interconnects.

  20. A Simple Fatigue Life Prediction Algorithm Using the Modified NASGRO Equation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A simple fatigue life prediction algorithm using the modified NASGRO equation is proposed in this paper. The NASGRO equation is modified by introducing the concept of intrinsic effective threshold stress intensity factor (SIF range ΔKeffth. One advantage of the proposed method is that the complex growth behavior analysis of small cracks can be avoided, and then the fatigue life can be calculated by directly integrating the crack growth model from the initial defect size to the critical crack size. The fatigue limit and the intrinsic effective threshold SIF range ΔKeffth are used to calculate the initial defect size or initial flaw size. The value of ΔKeffth is determined by extrapolating the crack propagation rate curves. Instead of using the fatigue limit determined by the fatigue strength at the specific fatigue life, the fatigue limit is selected based on the horizontal tendency of the S-N curve. The calculated fatigue lives are compared to the experimental data of two different alloys. The predicted S-N curves agree with the test data well. Besides, the prediction results are compared with that calculated using the FASTRAN code. Results indicate that the proposed life prediction algorithm is simple and efficient.

  1. Acquisition and data analysis of storage tank bottoms for life prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aparecido da Silva, M. [Petroquimica Uniao, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Tus, R. [Rosen Europe, Oldenzaal (Netherlands)

    2006-07-01

    Several techniques can be used to develop important life prediction information regarding structural conditions of storage tank bottoms. However, there is a limited availability of test that can be obtained from in service structural components. The reasons for applying life prediction methodology to aging storage tanks: more stringent safety and environment regulations, avoid costly forced outages, the limited availability of construction sites for new tanks, the expense of constructing, etc. The cause for applying life prediction methodology in aging tanks is material degradation. Nondestructive evaluation technique for characterizing and sizing important mechanical conditions in storage tank bottoms have been developed by the Company Rosen Inspection Technologies. The Tank Bottom Inspection Tool (TBIT) is capable to detect, data collecting and sizing in real time oriented flaws defects as well as metal loss features with length of 03 mm and depth of 50%. The technique based in high resolution MFL (Magnetic Flux Leakage) was applied in a petrochemical storage tank and compared with visual and dimensional analysis. The results show accurate information for predicting life. (orig.)

  2. Condition-based prediction of time-dependent reliability in composites

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper presents a reliability-based prediction methodology to obtain the remaining useful life of composite materials subjected to fatigue degradation....

  3. Life prediction methodology for thermal-mechanical fatigue and elevated temperature creep design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annigeri, Ravindra

    Nickel-based superalloys are used for hot section components of gas turbine engines. Life prediction techniques are necessary to assess service damage in superalloy components resulting from thermal-mechanical fatigue (TMF) and elevated temperature creep. A new TMF life model based on continuum damage mechanics has been developed and applied to IN 738 LC substrate material with and without coating. The model also characterizes TMF failure in bulk NiCoCrAlY overlay and NiAl aluminide coatings. The inputs to the TMF life model are mechanical strain range, hold time, peak cycle temperatures and maximum stress measured from the stabilized or mid-life hysteresis loops. A viscoplastic model is used to predict the stress-strain hysteresis loops. A flow rule used in the viscoplastic model characterizes the inelastic strain rate as a function of the applied stress and a set of three internal stress variables known as back stress, drag stress and limit stress. Test results show that the viscoplastic model can reasonably predict time-dependent stress-strain response of the coated material and stress relaxation during hold times. In addition to the TMF life prediction methodology, a model has been developed to characterize the uniaxial and multiaxial creep behavior. An effective stress defined as the applied stress minus the back stress is used to characterize the creep recovery and primary creep behavior. The back stress has terms representing strain hardening, dynamic recovery and thermal recovery. Whenever the back stress is greater than the applied stress, the model predicts a negative creep rate observed during multiple stress and multiple temperature cyclic tests. The model also predicted the rupture time and the remaining life that are important for life assessment. The model has been applied to IN 738 LC, Mar-M247, bulk NiCoCrAlY overlay coating and 316 austenitic stainless steel. The proposed model predicts creep response with a reasonable accuracy for wide range of

  4. Wiener process-based online prediction method of remaining useful life for draught fans in steel mills%基于Wiener过程的钢厂风机剩余使用寿命实时预测

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王兆强; 胡昌华; 王文彬; 董广静

    2014-01-01

    作为炼钢厂的关键设备,风机担负着转炉除尘和煤气回收的重要任务,实现风机剩余使用寿命的准确预测具有重要的实际意义。通过对邯郸某炼钢厂风机振动数据的分析,建立了基于 Wiener 过程的状态退化模型,在首达时间的意义下,推导出风机剩余使用寿命的概率密度函数的解析表达式,提出了一种基于极大似然估计的参数实时估计方法,从而实现风机剩余使用寿命的在线实时预测。实验结果表明,相对于文献中的方法,本文所提出的预测方法可以得到更高的预测精度和较低的预测不确定性。%As a crucial device of steel mills, the draught fan plays a key role in converter dedusting and gas recycling, and thus it is significantly essential to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of the draught fan. In this paper, a Wiener process-based degradation model is constructed based on vibration data analysis for a draught fan in the Handan steel mill. An analytical expression of the probability density function (PDF) of RUL is derived on the concept of the first hitting time (FHT). A parameter updating scheme is deduced on the basis of the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) algorithm for the RUL online prediction of the draught fan. Comparative studies with existing models show that the proposed method can predict the RUL of the draught fan in real time with a higher accuracy and less uncertainties.

  5. Prediction of the Service Life of a Reinforced Concrete Column under Chloride Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad K. Alkam

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present investigation, service life of a reinforced concrete column exposed to chloride environment has been predicted. This study has been based on numerical simulation of chloride ion diffusion in a concrete column during its anticipated life span. The simulation process has included the concrete cover replacement whenever chloride ion concentration has reached the critical threshold value at the reinforcement surface. Repair scheduling of the concrete column under consideration has been discussed. Effects of the concrete cover thickness and the water cement ratio on the service life of the concrete column at hand have been presented. A new approach for arranging locations of reinforcement steel bars has been introduced. This approach is intended to prolong the service life of the concrete column under consideration against chloride induced corrosion.

  6. Data-Based Predictive Control with Multirate Prediction Step

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Jonathan S.

    2010-01-01

    Data-based predictive control is an emerging control method that stems from Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC computes current control action based on a prediction of the system output a number of time steps into the future and is generally derived from a known model of the system. Data-based predictive control has the advantage of deriving predictive models and controller gains from input-output data. Thus, a controller can be designed from the outputs of complex simulation code or a physical system where no explicit model exists. If the output data happens to be corrupted by periodic disturbances, the designed controller will also have the built-in ability to reject these disturbances without the need to know them. When data-based predictive control is implemented online, it becomes a version of adaptive control. One challenge of MPC is computational requirements increasing with prediction horizon length. This paper develops a closed-loop dynamic output feedback controller that minimizes a multi-step-ahead receding-horizon cost function with multirate prediction step. One result is a reduced influence of prediction horizon and the number of system outputs on the computational requirements of the controller. Another result is an emphasis on portions of the prediction window that are sampled more frequently. A third result is the ability to include more outputs in the feedback path than in the cost function.

  7. 一种基于临界平面法的多轴疲劳寿命预测模型∗%Multiaxial Fatigue Life Prediction Model Based on Critical Plane Approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周维; 刘义伦; 李松柏; 杨大炼; 陶洁

    2015-01-01

    在多轴交变应力作用下,由于非比例循环附加强化效应导致疲劳寿命降低。针对这一问题,以薄壁圆管疲劳试件为研究对象,在分析临界平面上剪应变和正应变随相位角变化特征的基础上,引入了一个新的有效循环变量———临界平面上的等效应力,提出了一种新的多轴疲劳预测模型。新的损伤参量不含经验常数,便于工程实际的运用。通过和铝合金7075-T651多轴疲劳实验数据比较,结果表明,所提出的多轴寿命预测模型具有更好的预测精度,适用于比例与非比例加载条件。%The cyclic hardening by non-proportional loading will reduce the fatigue life under multiaxial cyclic stress.In order to solve this problem,a new damage parameter for multi-axial fatigue was proposed by introducing a new effective loop variable-the equivalent stress of the critical plane,based on the analysis for the state of the shear strain and strain changing with phase angle characteristics on the critical plane of the thin-walled cylindrical specimen. It is convenient for engineering application because of its non-material constants in this parameter.Compared with the data from aluminum alloy 7075-T65 1 multiaxial fatigue experiment,the results show that multiaxial life prediction model has better prediction precision,suitable for proportional and non-proportional loading conditions.

  8. The prediction technology study of fatigue life for key parts of a tracked vehicle's suspension system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Hongyan; RUI Qiang; HE Xiaojun

    2007-01-01

    In allusion to fatigue life of a tracked vehicle torsion bar, a virtual prototype model of the tracked vehicle suspension system including a flexible torsion bar was built based on dynamic simulation software-ADAMS. Node force and stress results of the torsion bar from last step simu- lation were acquired; taking into account the material charac- teristics and influential factors, fatigue life of the flexible body. of the torsion bar was predicted. Engineering results can be acquired through the contrast of the result of virtual test and statistical fatigue.

  9. Patterns, entropy, and predictability of human mobility and life

    CERN Document Server

    Qin, Shao-Meng; Mohtaschemi, Mikael; Hartonen, Tuomo; Alava, Mikko

    2012-01-01

    Cellular phones are now offering an ubiquitous means for scientists to observe life: how people act, move and respond to external influences. They can be utilized as measurement devices of individual persons and for groups of people of the social context and the related interactions. The picture of human life that emerges shows complexity, which is manifested in such data in properties of the spatiotemporal tracks of individuals. We extract from smartphone-based data for a set of persons important locations such as "home", "work" and so forth over fixed length time-slots covering the days in the data-set. This set of typical places is heavy-tailed, a power-law distribution with an exponent close to -1.7. To analyze the regularities and stochastic features present, the days are classified for each person into regular, personal patterns. To this are superimposed fluctuations for each day. This randomness is measured by "life" entropy, computed both before and after finding the clustering so as to subtract the c...

  10. Remaining useful life prediction for an adaptive skew-Wiener process model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Zeyi; Xu, Zhengguo; Ke, Xiaojie; Wang, Wenhai; Sun, Youxian

    2017-03-01

    Predicting the remaining useful life for operational devices plays a critical role in prognostics and health management. As the models based on the stochastic processes are widely used for characterizing the degradation trajectory, an adaptive skew-Wiener model, which is much more flexible than traditional stochastic process models, is proposed to model the degradation drift of industrial devices. To make full use of the prior knowledge and the historical information, an on-line filtering algorithm is proposed for state estimation, a two-stage algorithm is adopted to estimate unknown parameters as well. For remaining useful life prediction, a novel result is presented with an explicit form based on the closed skew normal distribution. Finally, sufficient Monte Carlo simulations and an application for ball bearings in rotating electrical machines are used to validate our approach.

  11. 基于BP神经网络高压潜水电机绝缘寿命预测%High Voltage Submersible Motor Insulation Life Prediction Based on BP Neural Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    鲍晓华; 刘冰; 朱庆龙; 刘健

    2011-01-01

    High voltage submersible motor works in deep water all the year, and its operating insulation performance deteriorated by the complex environment. Due to the special installed circumstances of the motor, it can not be readily maintained, so prediction of the insulation life expectancy, reducing the losses caused by motor deterioration have a great significance. The impacting factors of the insulation life-expectancy of the high voltage submersible motor are analyzed, at the same time, the ways of using BP neural network to predict the insulation life-expectancy of the high voltage submersible motor were proposed. The accelerated life experiment proved that using BP neural network to predict motor insulation life-expectancy can gain actual requirements.%高压潜水电机常年在深水中工作,受到复杂环境的影响,运行绝缘性能恶化,又由于电机安装环境特殊,不能随时被检修,所以预测其绝缘寿命,进而减少因电机绝缘性能恶化而带来的损失具有重大意义.分析了影响高压潜水电机绝缘寿命的因素,同时提出了利用BP神经网络对高压潜水电机绝缘寿命预测的方法,通过加速寿命试验证明,利用BP神经网络对电机寿命预测可达到实际要求.

  12. 基于腐败微生物的低温肉制品货架期预测研究进展%Advances on Shelf-life Prediction of Low-temperature Meat Products Based on Spoilage Microorganisms

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    贺旺林; 俞龙浩

    2015-01-01

    低温肉制品经热加工工序后仍残存真菌孢子、细菌芽孢和部分耐热细菌,极易发生腐败变质。货架期预测技术能够有效地预测和监控制品的货架期,从而减少生产企业的经济损失,并为消费者提供安全保障。综述了货架期预测过程中菌相分析、特定腐败菌生长模型建立、货架期预测软件开发和对模型的验证及改良等主要技术及其应用现状,为低温肉制品货架期预测和确定提供参考。%Some fungal spores,bacterial spore and thermal tolerant bacteria still survived in low-temperature meat products after thermal processing,which might cause low-temperature meat products spoilage. The technology of shelf-life prediction could effectively predict and monitor the shelf-life meat products,thereby reduce the production loss of industry and provide the food security of consumers. The microflora analysis,the growing pattern of specific spoilage organisms,the development of shelf-life prediction model and the validation and improvement of the model were reviewed in this paper,which provided the reference for the shelf-life prediction of the low-temperature meat products.

  13. Ways that Social Change Predicts Personal Quality of Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Chau-Kiu; Leung, Kwok

    2010-01-01

    A notable way that social change affects personal quality of life would rely on the person's experience with social change. This experience may influence societal quality of life and quality of work life, which may in turn affect personal quality of life. Additionally, the experience of social change is possibly less detrimental to personal…

  14. Fatigue Life Analysis of Rolling Bearings Based on Quasistatic Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Guo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Rolling bearings are widely used in aeroengine, machine tool spindles, locomotive wheelset, and so forth. Rolling bearings are usually the weakest components that influence the remaining life of the whole machine. In this paper, a fatigue life prediction method is proposed based on quasistatic modeling of rolling bearings. With consideration of radial centrifugal expansion and thermal deformations on the geometric displacement in the bearings, the Jones’ bearing model is updated, which can predict the contact angle, deformation, and load between rolling elements and bearing raceways more accurately. Based on Hertz contact theory and contact mechanics, the contact stress field between rolling elements and raceways is calculated. A coupling model of fatigue life and damage for rolling bearings is given and verified through accelerated life test. Afterwards, the variation of bearing life is investigated under different working conditions, that is, axial load, radial load, and rotational speed. The results suggested that the working condition had a great influence on fatigue life of bearing parts and the order in which the damage appears on bearing parts.

  15. Renal parenchymal histopathology predicts life-threatening chronic kidney disease as a result of radical nephrectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sejima, Takehiro; Honda, Masashi; Takenaka, Atsushi

    2015-01-01

    The preoperative prediction of post-radical nephrectomy renal insufficiency plays an important role in the decision-making process regarding renal surgery options. Furthermore, the prediction of both postoperative renal insufficiency and postoperative cardiovascular disease occurrence, which is suggested to be an adverse consequence caused by renal insufficiency, contributes to the preoperative policy decision as well as the precise informed consent for a renal cell carcinoma patient. Preoperative nomograms for the prediction of post-radical nephrectomy renal insufficiency, calculated using patient backgrounds, are advocated. The use of these nomograms together with other types of nomograms predicting oncological outcome is beneficial. Post-radical nephrectomy attending physicians can predict renal insufficiency based on the normal renal parenchymal pathology in addition to preoperative patient characteristics. It is suggested that a high level of global glomerulosclerosis in nephrectomized normal renal parenchyma is closely associated with severe renal insufficiency. Some studies showed that post-radical nephrectomy severe renal insufficiency might have an association with increased mortality as a result of cardiovascular disease. Therefore, such pathophysiology should be recognized as life-threatening, surgically-related chronic kidney disease. On the contrary, the investigation of the prediction of mild post-radical nephrectomy renal insufficiency, which is not related to adverse consequences in the postoperative long-term period, is also promising because the prediction of mild renal insufficiency might be the basis for the substitution of radical nephrectomy for nephron-sparing surgery in technically difficult or compromised cases. The deterioration of quality of life caused by post-radical nephrectomy renal insufficiency should be investigated in conjunction with life-threatening matters.

  16. Life-history traits predict perennial species response to fire in a desert ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shryock, Daniel F.; DeFalco, Lesley A.; Esque, Todd C.

    2014-01-01

    The Mojave Desert of North America has become fire-prone in recent decades due to invasive annual grasses that fuel wildfires following years of high rainfall. Perennial species are poorly adapted to fire in this system, and post-fire shifts in species composition have been substantial but variable across community types. To generalize across a range of conditions, we investigated whether simple life-history traits could predict how species responded to fire. Further, we classified species into plant functional types (PFTs) based on combinations of life-history traits and evaluated whether these groups exhibited a consistent fire-response. Six life-history traits varied significantly between burned and unburned areas in short (up to 4 years) or long-term (up to 52 years) post-fire datasets, including growth form, lifespan, seed size, seed dispersal, height, and leaf longevity. Forbs and grasses consistently increased in abundance after fire, while cacti were reduced and woody species exhibited a variable response. Woody species were classified into three PFTs based on combinations of life-history traits. Species in Group 1 increased in abundance after fire and were characterized by short lifespans, small, wind-dispersed seeds, low height, and deciduous leaves. Species in Group 2 were reduced by fire and distinguished from Group 1 by longer lifespans and evergreen leaves. Group 3 species, which also decreased after fire, were characterized by long lifespans, large non-wind dispersed seeds, and taller heights. Our results show that PFTs based on life-history traits can reliably predict the responses of most species to fire in the Mojave Desert. Dominant, long-lived species of this region possess a combination of traits limiting their ability to recover, presenting a clear example of how a novel disturbance regime may shift selective environmental pressures to favor alternative life-history strategies.

  17. Multi-Axial Damage Index and Accumulation Model for Predicting Fatigue Life of CMC Materials Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The fatigue life of CMCs must be well characterized for the safe and reliable use of these materials as integrated TPS components. Existing fatigue life prediction...

  18. 基于临界面法的剪切式多轴疲劳寿命预测模型%A MULTIAXIAL FATIGUE LIFE PREDICTION MODEL WITH SHEAR FORM BASED ON THE CRITICAL PLANE APPROACH

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘嘉; 李静; 张忠平

    2012-01-01

    Based on the critical plane approach,a new multiaxial fatigue damage parameter with shear form is proposed by means of the von-Mises criterion. This proposed damage parameter is suitable for both proportional and non-proportional loading. Besides, this damage parameter considers the maximum shear strain range and the normal strain range on the critical plane. The effect of the non-proportional cyclic hardening on the fatigue life is taken into account by an introduced stress-correlated factor. It is convenient for engineering application because of no empirical constants in this parameter. The predicted multiaxial fatigue lives of the considered materials(1045HR Steel,S45C Steel,Inconel718 Steel and 16MnR Steel) using the proposed model are found in good agreement with the experimental results.%基于临界平面原理,应用von-Mises准则提出一种能够同时适用于比例与非比例加载的剪切式多轴疲劳损伤参量.新的损伤参量,通过引入一个应力相关因子来考虑临界面上最大剪应变范围和正应变范围对多轴疲劳损伤贡献的不同,同时该因子还考虑了非比例附加强化对材料多轴疲劳寿命的影响.该参量不含有经验常数,便于工程应用.经1045HR钢,S45C钢,Inconel718钢,16MnR钢等四种材料的多轴疲劳试验验证,预测结果与试验结果吻合较好.

  19. A Modelling Study for Predicting Life of Downhole Tubes Considering Service Environmental Parameters and Stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianliang Zhao

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available A modelling effort was made to try to predict the life of downhole tubes or casings, synthetically considering the effect of service influencing factors on corrosion rate. Based on the discussed corrosion mechanism and corrosion processes of downhole tubes, a mathematic model was established. For downhole tubes, the influencing factors are environmental parameters and stress, which vary with service duration. Stress and the environmental parameters including water content, partial pressure of H2S and CO2, pH value, total pressure and temperature, were considered to be time-dependent. Based on the model, life-span of an L80 downhole tube in oilfield Halfaya, an oilfield in Iraq, was predicted. The results show that life-span of the L80 downhole tube in Halfaya is 247 months (approximately 20 years under initial stress of 0.1 yield strength and 641 months (approximately 53 years under no initial stress, which indicates that an initial stress of 0.1 yield strength will reduce the life-span by more than half.

  20. Bi-variable damage model for fatigue life prediction of metal components

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Miao Zhang; Qing-Chun Meng; Xing Zhang; Wei-Ping Hu

    2011-01-01

    Based on the theory of continuum damage mechanics, a bi-variable damage mechanics model is developed, which, according to thermodynamics, is accessible to derivation of damage driving force, damage evolution equation and damage evolution criteria. Furthermore, damage evolution equations of time rate are established by the generalized Drucker's postulate. The damage evolution equation of cycle rate is obtained by integrating the time damage evolution equations, and the fatigue life prediction method for smooth specimens under repeated loading with constant strain amplitude is constructed. Likewise, for notched specimens under the repeated loading with constant strain amplitude, the fatigue life prediction method is obtained on the ground of the theory of conservative integral in damage mechanics. Thus, the material parameters in the damage evolution equation can be obtained by reference to the fatigue test results of standard specimens with stress concentration factor equal to 1, 2 and 3.

  1. Basic traits predict the prevalence of personality disorder across the life span: the example of psychopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vachon, David D; Lynam, Donald R; Widiger, Thomas A; Miller, Joshua D; McCrae, Robert R; Costa, Paul T

    2013-05-01

    Personality disorders (PDs) may be better understood in terms of dimensions of general personality functioning rather than as discrete categorical conditions. Personality-trait descriptions of PDs are robust across methods and settings, and PD assessments based on trait measures show good construct validity. The study reported here extends research showing that basic traits (e.g., impulsiveness, warmth, straightforwardness, modesty, and deliberation) can re-create the epidemiological characteristics associated with PDs. Specifically, we used normative changes in absolute trait levels to simulate age-related differences in the prevalence of psychopathy in a forensic setting. Results demonstrated that trait information predicts the rate of decline for psychopathy over the life span; discriminates the decline of psychopathy from that of a similar disorder, antisocial PD; and accurately predicts the differential decline of subfactors of psychopathy. These findings suggest that basic traits provide a parsimonious account of PD prevalence across the life span.

  2. Predicting the creep life and failure mode of low-alloy steel weldments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brear, J.M.; Middleton, C.J.; Aplin, P.F. [ERA Technology Ltd., Leatherhead (United Kingdom)

    1998-12-31

    This presentation reviews and consolidates experience gained through a number of research projects and practical plant assessments in predicting both the life and the likely failure mode and location in low alloy steel weldments. The approach adopted begins with the recognition that the relative strength difference between the microstructural regions is a key factor controlling both life and failure location. Practical methods based on hardness measurement and adaptable to differing weld geometries are presented and evidence for correlations between hardness ratio, damage accumulation and strain development is discussed. Predictor diagrams relating weld life and failure location to the service conditions and the hardness of the individual microstructural constituents are suggested and comments are given on the implications for identifying the circumstances in which Type IV cracking is to be expected. (orig.) 6 refs.

  3. Deconstructing environmental predictability: seasonality, environmental colour and the biogeography of marine life histories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Dustin J; Burgess, Scott C

    2015-02-01

    Environmental predictability is predicted to shape the evolution of life histories. Two key types of environmental predictability, seasonality and environmental colour, may influence life-history evolution independently but formal considerations of both and how they relate to life history are exceedingly rare. Here, in a global biogeographical analysis of over 800 marine invertebrates, we explore the relationships between both forms of environmental predictability and three fundamental life-history traits: location of larval development (aplanktonic vs. planktonic), larval developmental mode (feeding vs. non-feeding) and offspring size. We found that both dispersal potential and offspring size related to environmental predictability, but the relationships depended on both the environmental factor as well as the type of predictability. Environments that were more seasonal in food availability had a higher prevalence of species with a planktonic larval stage. Future studies should consider both types of environmental predictability as each can strongly affect life-history evolution.

  4. Structural strength analysis and fatigue life prediction of traction converter box in high-speed EMU

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Qin; Li, Qiang

    2017-01-01

    The method of building the FEA model of traction converter box in high-speed EMU and analyzing the static strength and fatigue strength of traction converter box based on IEC 61373-2010 and EN 12663 standards is presented in this paper. The load-stress correlation coefficients of weak points is obtained by FEA model, applied to transfer the load history of traction converter box to stress history of each point. The fatigue damage is calculated based on Miner's rule and the fatigue life of traction converter box is predicted. According to study, the structural strength of traction converter box meets design requirements.

  5. 基于随机参数 Gamma过程的剩余寿命预测方法%Remaining useful life prediction method based on Gamma processes with random parameters

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王浩伟; 徐廷学; 刘勇

    2015-01-01

    A method based on Bayesian inference with non‐conjugate prior distributions of parameters of Gamma processes was proposed for the products which had gone through accelerated aging tests in order to improve the reliability of remaining useful life prediction .The accelerated aging data was considered as prior information and Gamma processes were utilized to model the aging data .After the transformed values of parameters at the normal working stress were obtained by acceleration factors ,the Anderson‐Darling statistic was applied to determine the prior distributions of two parameters .Few testing data at working was considered as field information ,and the posterior means of parameters were obtained by Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation based on Gibbs sampling .The research significance and engineering value were demonstrated through a missile electrical connector .%为了提高剩余寿命预测的可信度,针对进行过加速老化试验的产品,提出利用Gamma过程参数的非共轭先验分布进行Bayesian统计推断的剩余寿命预测方法。将加速老化数据作为先验信息,利用Gamma过程进行老化建模,通过加速因子获得形状参数在工作应力下的折算值,使用 Anderson‐Darling 统计量确定随机参数的先验分布。将产品工作中的少量实测数据作为现场信息,利用基于Gibbs抽样的Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)仿真得到参数的后验均值。以某型导弹电连接器为例说明了该方法的研究意义和工程应用价值。

  6. Residual useful life prediction of gearbox based on particle filtering parameter estimation method%粒子滤波参数估计方法在齿轮箱剩余寿命预测中的应用研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙磊; 贾云献; 蔡丽影; 张星辉

    2013-01-01

    针对非线性非高斯系统的剩余寿命(RUL)预测问题,提出了一种基于粒子滤波(PF)理论的设备剩余寿命预测方法.首先建立设备的非线性状态空间模型(含有未知的时变参数),然后通过粒子滤波算法估计出设备状态的概率密度函数(PDF),从而根据该PDF计算出设备的RUL.此外,计算设备RUL的期望值和95%置信区间,并对模型的预测效果进行评估,验证预测的有效性和准确性.最后通过齿轮箱的全寿命实验,对方法的有效性进行实例验证,将实验结果和传统的比例风险模型(PHM)预测结果对比分析,结果表明剩余寿命预测方法要优于传统的PHM预测方法.%To solve the problem of predicting equipment residual useful life (RUL) which is non-linear and non-Gaussian , a particle filtering framework for system's RUL prediction was proposed. The framework uses a non-linear state-space model of the system (with unknown time-varying parameters) and a particle filtering (PF) algorithm to estimate the probability density function ( PDF) of the state. The state PDF estimate was then used to predict the evolution of the fault indicator and ad a result obtain the PDF of the remaining useful life ( RUL) for the faulty subsystem. The approach provides informations about the effectiveness and accuracy of the predictions, RUL expectations, and 95% confidence intervals for the condition under study. Data from a full life test for a gearbox were used to validate the proposed methodology , and comparisons were made between proportional hazard model (PHM) and PF method. The outcome shows that the PF method has a better effect than PHM on RUL prediction.

  7. An Integrated Approach to Fatigue Life Prediction of Whole System for Offshore Platforms

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    方华灿; 段梦兰; 许发彦; 吴永宁; 樊晓东

    2001-01-01

    The failure of one or even more components usually does not lead to the collapse of the whole structure. Most of theanalysis of fatigue is centered on only a single component which the researchers are interested in or much attentionshould be paid to. However, the collapse of a structure is the result of failure of a series of components in a specific orderor path. This paper proposes an integrated approach to fatigue life prediction of whole structural system for offshoreplatforms, mainly describing the basic principles and prediction method. A method is presented for determining the fail-ure path of the whole structure system and calculating the fatigue life in the determined failure path. The correspondingfinal collapse criteria for the whole structure system are discussed. A simple method of equivalent fatigue stress range cal-culation and a mathematical model of structural component fatigue life estimation in consideration of sea wave and seaice loads are provided. As an application of the proposed approach, a fixed production platform Bohai No. 8 is chosenfor the predication of fatigue life of the whole structure system by means of the software OSFAC developed based on thepresent methods.

  8. Collective prediction based on community structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yasong; Li, Taisong; Zhang, Yan; Yan, Yonghong

    2017-01-01

    Collective prediction algorithms have been used to improve performances when network structures are involved in prediction tasks. The training dataset of such tasks often contain information of content, links and labels, while the testing dataset have only content and link information. Conventional collective prediction algorithms conduct predictions based on the content of a node and the information of its direct neighbors with a base classifier. However, the information of some direct neighbor nodes may be not consistent with the target one. In addition, the information of indirect neighbors can be helpful when that of direct neighbors is scant. In this paper, instead of using information of direct neighbors, we propose to apply community structures in networks to prediction tasks. A community detection method is aggregated into the collective prediction process to improve prediction performance. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms a number of standard prediction algorithms specially under conditions that labeled training dataset are limited.

  9. Probabilistic Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Composite Aircraft Components Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A Probabilistic Fatigue Damage Assessment Network (PFDAN) toolkit for Abaqus will be developed for probabilistic life management of a laminated composite structure...

  10. A Life Prediction Model for Low Cycle Fatigue Based on Continuum Damage Mechanics%一种基于连续损伤力学的低周疲劳寿命预测模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈凌; 张贤明; 欧阳平

    2015-01-01

    According to the basic conservation law of continuous media and continuum damage me-chanics,the decrease of effective bearing area caused by the material fatigue damage could be expressed as a function of mean strain.The low cycle fatigue damage evolution of the micro crack stage and the fatigue crack stage were analyzed.And then,a model for the life prediction of low cycle fatigue was es-tablished.Through low cycle fatigue experiments with smooth specimens of 31 6L steel at 420℃ under stress control,the damage evolution were described and the fatigue life prediction was carried out by the method mentioned above.Results show that the micro crack stage is the main stage of low cycle fatigue life consumption of material.And compared with the experimental data,it is found that the predicted results which are obtained by the sampling data of different life periods are in good agree-ment with the experimental ones.%基于连续介质基本守恒定律和连续损伤力学,可将材料疲劳损伤造成的有效承载面积减小表示为平均应变的函数,在此基础上,按微裂纹阶段和疲劳裂纹阶段对材料低周疲劳的损伤演化进行了分析,并建立了一种低周疲劳寿命预测模型。对316L 钢光滑试样进行420℃环境下应力控制的低周疲劳试验,采用上述方法进行损伤描述和寿命预测。结果表明微裂纹阶段是材料低周疲劳寿命消耗的主要阶段,采用各寿命段采样数据获得的寿命预测结果与试验结果较符合。

  11. 基于美国ASME标准的重载货车车体焊缝疲劳寿命预测%Fatigue life prediction for weld line in heavy freight carbody based on ASME standard

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谢素明; 周晓坤; 李向伟; 李晓峰

    2012-01-01

    为寻求在设计阶段能较准确地预测重载货车车体焊缝的疲劳寿命评估方法,基于各种标准提供的分析方法对转炉616装甲钢T型焊接接头进行疲劳评估,通过与试验的对比表明,美国ASME标准中的等效结构应力法更能准确预测焊缝的疲劳寿命。为提高某重载运煤敞车车体焊缝的疲劳寿命,建立了包括焊缝在内的敞车车体有限元模型,基于等效结构应力法和AAR标准中的载荷谱,预测了车体关键焊缝的疲劳寿命,其薄弱部位与车体实际发生疲劳裂纹部位基本吻合,依据焊缝的结构应力分布规律的特点,提出的枕梁改进结构可使车体关键焊缝疲劳寿命提高1.7倍。%Aiming at finding a more exact method to predict weld line fatigue life in heavy freight carbody during design phase, the fatigue life of armor steel 616 Tee joint is analyzed by various standards. Comparing analysis results and experimental results,the equivalent structural stress method offered by ASME standard is of high accuracy and obvious advantage. A finite element model of a heavy freight carbody including key weld lines is built, fatigue life prediction for these weld lines is performed by means of the equivalent structural stress method and load spectrum of AAR,and weld line of more shorter fatigue life is basically coincident with that in-service carbody. The improved structure of bolsters is to be put forward on the basis of structural stress analysis at weld lines, and fatigue life of the bolsters weld line is increased by 1.7 times.

  12. Prediction of Muitiaxiai Random Vibration Fatigue Life Based on Frequency Domain%基于频域的多轴随机振动疲劳寿命预测

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黄义科; 潘亦苏

    2015-01-01

    采用两参数的应力响应功率谱和概率密度函数,并结合多参数疲劳失效准则预测多轴随机振动疲劳,最终将多轴随机疲劳寿命归于一个函数表达式。以列车电池箱结构为研究对象,借助MSC Fatigue软件对上述方法进行了数值模拟,对比了随机过程为宽带和窄带形式,以及以最大主应力准则、等效应力准则和临界面准则评估的疲劳寿命。结果表明:用宽带分布结合临界面准则来预测随机多轴的疲劳寿命更加合理。%Two parameters expression of probability density function of the stress response power spec-trum was adopted to predict the multiaxial random vibration fatigue life with a couple of fatigue failure criterions. A train battery box structure was studied by this method with MSC Fatigue software. After comparing different multiaxial random vibration fatigue life in the different stochastic processes inclu-ding broadband and narrowband,the different fatigue failure evaluation criterions including the maxi-mum principal stress criterion,the equivalent stress criterion and the critical surface criterion,the conclusion shows that using broadband distribution and the clinical surface criterion to predict the multiaxial random vibration fatigue life is more reasonable.

  13. Game-Based Life-Long Learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kelle, Sebastian; Sigurðarson, Steinn; Westera, Wim; Specht, Marcus

    2010-01-01

    Kelle, S., Sigurðarson, S., Westera, W., & Specht, M. (2011). Game-Based Life-Long Learning. In G. D. Magoulas (Ed.), E-Infrastructures and Technologies for Lifelong Learning: Next Generation Environments (pp. 337-349). Hershey, PA: IGI Global.

  14. Generation of Finite Life Distributional Goodman Diagrams for Reliability Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kececioglu, D.; Guerrieri, W. N.

    1971-01-01

    The methodology of developing finite life distributional Goodman diagrams and surfaces is described for presenting allowable combinations of alternating stress and mean stress to the design engineer. The combined stress condition is that of an alternating bending stress and a constant shear stress. The finite life Goodman diagrams and surfaces are created from strength distributions developed at various ratios of alternating to mean stress at particular cycle life values. The conclusions indicate that the Von Mises-Hencky ellipse, for cycle life values above 1000 cycles, is an adequate model of the finite life Goodman diagram. In addition, suggestions are made which reduce the number of experimental data points required in a fatigue data acquisition program.

  15. A novel health indicator for on-line lithium-ion batteries remaining useful life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yapeng; Huang, Miaohua; Chen, Yupu; Tao, Ye

    2016-07-01

    Prediction of lithium-ion batteries remaining useful life (RUL) plays an important role in an intelligent battery management system. The capacity and internal resistance are often used as the batteries health indicator (HI) for quantifying degradation and predicting RUL. However, on-line measurement of capacity and internal resistance are hardly realizable due to the not fully charged and discharged condition and the extremely expensive cost, respectively. Therefore, there is a great need to find an optional way to deal with this plight. In this work, a novel HI is extracted from the operating parameters of lithium-ion batteries for degradation modeling and RUL prediction. Moreover, Box-Cox transformation is employed to improve HI performance. Then Pearson and Spearman correlation analyses are utilized to evaluate the similarity between real capacity and the estimated capacity derived from the HI. Next, both simple statistical regression technique and optimized relevance vector machine are employed to predict the RUL based on the presented HI. The correlation analyses and prediction results show the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed HI for battery degradation modeling and RUL prediction.

  16. Projecting LED product life based on application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narendran, Nadarajah; Liu, Yi-wei; Mou, Xi; Thotagamuwa, Dinusha R.; Eshwarage, Oshadhi V. Madihe

    2016-09-01

    LED products have started to displace traditional light sources in many lighting applications. One of the commonly claimed benefits for LED lighting products is their long useful lifetime in applications. Today there are many replacement lamp products using LEDs in the marketplace. Typically, lifetime claims of these replacement lamps are in the 25,000-hour range. According to current industry practice, the time for the LED light output to reach the 70% value is estimated according to IESNA LM-80 and TM-21 procedures and the resulting value is reported as the whole system life. LED products generally experience different thermal environments and switching (on-off cycling) patterns when used in applications. Current industry test methods often do not produce accurate lifetime estimates for LED systems because only one component of the system, namely the LED, is tested under a continuous-on burning condition without switching on and off, and because they estimate for only one failure type, lumen depreciation. The objective of the study presented in this manuscript was to develop a test method that could help predict LED system life in any application by testing the whole LED system, including on-off power cycling with sufficient dwell time, and considering both failure types, catastrophic and parametric. The study results showed for the LED A-lamps tested in this study, both failure types, catastrophic and parametric, exist. The on-off cycling encourages catastrophic failure, and maximum operating temperature influences the lumen depreciation rate and parametric failure time. It was also clear that LED system life is negatively affected by on-off switching, contrary to commonly held belief. In addition, the study results showed that most of the LED systems failed catastrophically much ahead of the LED light output reaching the 70% value. This emphasizes the fact that life testing of LED systems must consider catastrophic failure in addition to lumen depreciation, and

  17. Age at the onset of senescence in birds and mammals is predicted by early-life performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Péron, Guillaume; Gimenez, Olivier; Charmantier, Anne; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Crochet, Pierre-André

    2010-09-22

    Life-history theory predicts that traits involved in maturity, reproduction and survival correlate along a fast-slow continuum of life histories. Evolutionary theories and empirical results indicate that senescence-related traits vary along this continuum, with slow species senescing later and at a slower pace than fast species. Because senescence patterns are typically difficult to estimate from studies in the wild, here we propose to predict the associated trait values in the frame of life-history theory. From a comparative analysis based on 81 free-ranging populations of 72 species of birds and mammals, we find that a nonlinear combination of fecundity, age at first reproduction and survival over the immature stage can account for ca two-thirds of the variance in the age at the onset of actuarial senescence. Our life-history model performs better than a model predicting the onset based on generation time, and it only includes life-history traits during early life as explanatory variables, i.e. parameters that are both theoretically expected to shape senescence and are measurable within relatively short studies. We discuss the good-fit of our life-history model to the available data in the light of current evolutionary theories of senescence. We further use it to evaluate whether studies that provided no evidence for senescence lasted long enough to include the onset of senescence.

  18. 基于 Gram-Schmidt 回归的军械器材储存期限测算方法%Shelf Life Prediction Modeling for Ordnance Equipment Based on Gram-Schmidt Regression

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李志伟; 高崎; 刘慎洋; 杨志远

    2015-01-01

    In order to overcome the difficulty of selecting the suitable regression items especially the non-linear regression items and eliminating the influence of multicollinearity when conducting mass modeling tasks,an ordnance equipment shelf life calculation method using Gram-Schmidt regression is put forward. This method can select the critical modeling items in all the available items in turn,and the influence of multicollinearity can be eliminated by deducting the orthogonal components.Mass of shelf life prediction models can be developed in this method,and the process is very standardized and easy programming.Fi-nally,an example of predicting rubber type of ordnance equipment is taken to test and verify the method. Results show that the nonlinear terms of regression model selected by modeling process is consistent with Dakin equation,and the predicted values of natural rubber shelf life are coordinated with factory settings.%针对军械器材储存期限测算任务量大、时间紧迫,批量建模时与环境因素相关的回归项尤其是非线,项难以确定,因素间的多重共线,难以消除等问题,提出了一种基于 Gram-Schmidt 回归的军械器材储存期限测算方法。该方法可在众多备选非线,项中依次找到关键的影响因素,并利用消减投影分量的方法消除多重共线,的不良影响;利用该方法可批量构建储存期限测算模型,且测算流程规范、统一,易于编程实现。最后以橡胶类军械器材为例对该方法进行了验证,结果表明:批量建模选出的非线,项与 Dakin 寿命方程相符,测算的常温下天然橡胶的储存期限值与出厂值相符。

  19. Prediction of Fatigue Life of Gear Subjected to Varying Loads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Hanumanna

    1998-07-01

    Full Text Available Structural members and components of a vehicle during service are subjected to varying loads which are random in nature. For structural members subjected to loads of constant amplitude, it is possible to describe the load with explicit mathematical relationship, and thereby, the life span can be estimated. Whereas, for structural members subjected to varying loads with time, there is no satisfactory method to estimate their life span. This paper describes a method for the estimation of life span of a gear in the gear box of a fighting vehicle subjected to fluctuating loads. For this purpose, it is assumed that the load spectrum corresponds to Gaussian (normal distribution, and the life has been worked out by applying linear cumulative damage theory.

  20. Global life satisfaction predicts ambulatory affect, stress, and cortisol in daily life in working adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, Joshua M; Zawadzki, Matthew J; Juth, Vanessa; Sciamanna, Christopher N

    2017-04-01

    Global life satisfaction has been linked with long-term health advantages, yet how life satisfaction impacts the trajectory of long-term health is unclear. This paper examines one such possible mechanism-that greater life satisfaction confers momentary benefits in daily life that accumulate over time. A community sample of working adults (n = 115) completed a measure of life satisfaction and then three subsequent days of ecological momentary assessment surveys (6 times/day) measuring affect (i.e., emotional valence, arousal), and perceived stress, and also provided salivary cortisol samples. Multilevel models indicated that people with higher (vs. lower) levels of life satisfaction reported better momentary affect, less stress, marginally lower momentary levels and significantly altered diurnal slopes of cortisol. Findings suggest individuals with high global life satisfaction have advantageous daily experiences, providing initial evidence for potential mechanisms through which global life satisfaction may help explain long-term health benefits.

  1. Heart Attack Prediction System Based Neural Arbitration

    OpenAIRE

    Helwan, Abdulkader

    2015-01-01

    Heart attack is an asymptomatic and epidemic medical condition that may suddenly occur and causes “death”. Therefore, it is a life-threatening condition and it should be detected before it occurs. Heart attack is so far predicted using the conventional ways of doctor’s examination and by performing some medical tests such as stress test, ECG, and heart CTScan etc. The coronary vessels constriction, the cholesterol levels in the arteries, and other attributes can be good indicators for making ...

  2. Energy based prediction models for building acoustics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brunskog, Jonas

    2012-01-01

    In order to reach robust and simplified yet accurate prediction models, energy based principle are commonly used in many fields of acoustics, especially in building acoustics. This includes simple energy flow models, the framework of statistical energy analysis (SEA) as well as more elaborated...... principles as, e.g., wave intensity analysis (WIA). The European standards for building acoustic predictions, the EN 12354 series, are based on energy flow and SEA principles. In the present paper, different energy based prediction models are discussed and critically reviewed. Special attention is placed...

  3. Trust-based collective view prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Luo, Tiejian; Xu, Guandong; Zhou, Jia

    2013-01-01

    Collective view prediction is to judge the opinions of an active web user based on unknown elements by referring to the collective mind of the whole community. Content-based recommendation and collaborative filtering are two mainstream collective view prediction techniques. They generate predictions by analyzing the text features of the target object or the similarity of users' past behaviors. Still, these techniques are vulnerable to the artificially-injected noise data, because they are not able to judge the reliability and credibility of the information sources. Trust-based Collective View

  4. Predicting employment status and subjective quality of life in patients with schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haruo Fujino

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Although impaired social functioning, particularly poor employment status, is a cardinal feature of patients with schizophrenia and leads to decreased quality of life (QOL, few studies have addressed the relationship between these two clinical issues. The aim of this study was to determine whether employment status predicts subjective QOL and to evaluate a model in which functional capacity mediates the relationship between general cognitive performance and employment status. Ninety-three patients with schizophrenia were administered a comprehensive battery of cognitive tests, the UCSD Performance-based Skills Assessment-Brief version (UPSA-B, the Social Functioning Scale (SFS, and the Subjective Quality of Life Scale (SQLS. First, we evaluated a model for predicting the employment/occupation subscale score of the SFS using path analysis, and the model fitted well (χ2 (4 = 3.6, p = 0.46; CFI = 1.0; RMSEA < 0.001, with 90% CIs: 0–0.152. Employment status was predicted by negative symptoms and functional capacity, which was in turn predicted by general cognitive performance. Second, we added subjective QOL to this model. In a final path model, QOL was predicted by negative symptoms and employment status. This model also satisfied good fit criteria (χ2 (7 = 10.3, p = 0.17; CFI = 0.987; RMSEA = 0.072, with 90% CIs: 0–0.159. The UPSA-B and SFS scores were moderately correlated with most measures of cognitive performance. These results support the notion that better employment status enhances subjective QOL in patients with schizophrenia.

  5. Predicting the evolution of social networks with life cycle events

    OpenAIRE

    Sharmeen, F Fariya; Arentze, TA Theo; Timmermans, HJP Harry

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a model of social network evolution, to predict and simulate changes in social networks induced by lifecycle events. We argue that social networks change with lifecycle events, and we extend a model of friendship selection to incorporate these dynamics of personal social networks. The model uses theories of homophily and reciprocity and is formulated in a random utility maximization framework to predict the formation of social ties between individuals in the population. It...

  6. A Critical Plane-energy Model for Multiaxial Fatigue Life Prediction of Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Haoyang

    A new critical plane-energy model is proposed in this thesis for multiaxial fatigue life prediction of homogeneous and heterogeneous materials. Brief review of existing methods, especially on the critical plane-based and energy-based methods, are given first. Special focus is on one critical plane approach which has been shown to work for both brittle and ductile metals. The key idea is to automatically change the critical plane orientation with respect to different materials and stress states. One potential drawback of the developed model is that it needs an empirical calibration parameter for non-proportional multiaxial loadings since only the strain terms are used and the out-of-phase hardening cannot be considered. The energy-based model using the critical plane concept is proposed with help of the Mroz-Garud hardening rule to explicitly include the effect of non-proportional hardening under fatigue cyclic loadings. Thus, the empirical calibration for non-proportional loading is not needed since the out-of-phase hardening is naturally included in the stress calculation. The model predictions are compared with experimental data from open literature and it is shown the proposed model can work for both proportional and non-proportional loadings without the empirical calibration. Next, the model is extended for the fatigue analysis of heterogeneous materials integrating with finite element method. Fatigue crack initiation of representative volume of heterogeneous materials is analyzed using the developed critical plane-energy model and special focus is on the microstructure effect on the multiaxial fatigue life predictions. Several conclusions and future work is drawn based on the proposed study.

  7. Life prediction of thermal-mechanical fatigue using strain-range partitioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halford, G. R.; Manson, S. S.

    1975-01-01

    The applicability is described of the method of Strainrange Partitioning to the life prediction of thermal-mechanical strain-cycling fatigue. An in-phase test on 316 stainless steel is analyzed as an illustrative example. The observed life is in excellent agreement with the life predicted by the method using the recently proposed Step-Stress Method of experimental partitioning, the Interation Damage Rule, and the life relationships determined at an isothermal temperature of 705 C. Implications of the study are discussed relative to the general thermal fatigue problem.

  8. Fuzzy Activity Based Life Cycle Costing For Repairable Equipment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mulubrhan Freselam

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Life-cycle cost (LCC is the much known method used for decision making that considers all costs in the life of a system or equipment. Predicting LCCs is fraught with potential errors, owing to the uncertainty in future events, future costs, interest rates, and even hidden costs. These uncertainties have a direct impact on the decision making. Activity based LCC is used to identify the activities and cost drivers in acquisition, operation and maintenance phase. This activity based LCC is integrated with fuzzy set theory and interval mathematics to model these uncertainties. Day–Stout–Warren (DSW algorithm and the vertex method are then used to evaluate competing alternatives. A case of two pumps (Pump A and Pump B are taken and their LCC is analysed using the developed model. The equivalent annual cost of Pump B is greater than Pump A, which leads the decision maker to choose Pump A over Pump B.

  9. Knowledge-Based Systems in Biomedicine and Computational Life Science

    CERN Document Server

    Jain, Lakhmi

    2013-01-01

    This book presents a sample of research on knowledge-based systems in biomedicine and computational life science. The contributions include: ·         personalized stress diagnosis system ·         image analysis system for breast cancer diagnosis ·         analysis of neuronal cell images ·         structure prediction of protein ·         relationship between two mental disorders ·         detection of cardiac abnormalities ·         holistic medicine based treatment ·         analysis of life-science data  

  10. Predicting professional quality of life among professional and volunteer caregivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avieli, Hila; Ben-David, Sarah; Levy, Inna

    2016-01-01

    This study is one of the few that has compared volunteers' professional quality of life (PQL), which includes secondary traumatic stress (STS), burnout, and compassion satisfaction (CS), to those of professional caregivers. In addition, the research compared the ethical behavior of volunteers with that of professional therapists and examined the connection between years of experience, ethical behavior, and PQL. One hundred eighty-three volunteers and professional caregivers filled out a sociodemographic questionnaire, an Ethical Behavior Questionnaire and the Professional Quality of Life (ProQOL) questionnaire. The results indicated that professional caregivers report lower levels of STS and burnout, and higher levels of CS and ethical behavior compared with volunteer caregivers. Moreover, the findings suggest that ethical behavior correlates with STS, burnout, and CS. Ethical behavior has a protective value for mental health caregivers. The discussion emphasizes the value of a professional code of ethics and ethical training for professional and volunteering caregivers.

  11. Extreme Environment Damage Index and Accumulation Model for CMC Laminate Fatigue Life Prediction Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Materials Research & Design (MR&D) is proposing in the SBIR Phase II an effort to develop a tool for predicting the fatigue life of C/SiC composite...

  12. Study on effect of mean stress on fatigue life prediction of thin film structure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Myung Soo [Ahtti Co., Seongnam (Korea, Republic of); Park, Jun Hyu [Tongmyong University, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jung Yup [Korea Institute of Machinery and Materials, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-15

    This paper describes the effect of mean stress on fatigue life prediction of structure made with thin film. It is well known that the mean stress influences fatigue life prediction of mechanical structure. We investigated a reasonable method for considering mean stress when fatigue strength assessment of micro structure of thin film should be performed. Fatigue tests of smooth specimen of beryllium-copper (BeCu) thin film were performed in ambient air at R = 0.1 with 5 Hz. A micro probe was designed and made with BeCu thin film by the precision press process. Fatigue tests of micro structure were performed with 5 Hz frequency, in ambient air to verify the fatigue life predicted by computer simulation through FE analysis. The fatigue life predicted by the Sa -N curve modified by Goodman method with principal stress through FE analysis shows a more reasonable result than other methods.

  13. A Hybrid Prognostic Approach for Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Lithium-Ion Batteries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-An Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Lithium-ion battery is a core component of many systems such as satellite, spacecraft, and electric vehicles and its failure can lead to reduced capability, downtime, and even catastrophic breakdowns. Remaining useful life (RUL prediction of lithium-ion batteries before the future failure event is extremely crucial for proactive maintenance/safety actions. This study proposes a hybrid prognostic approach that can predict the RUL of degraded lithium-ion batteries using physical laws and data-driven modeling simultaneously. In this hybrid prognostic approach, the relevant vectors obtained with the selective kernel ensemble-based relevance vector machine (RVM learning algorithm are fitted to the physical degradation model, which is then extrapolated to failure threshold for estimating the RUL of the lithium-ion battery of interest. The experimental results indicated that the proposed hybrid prognostic approach can accurately predict the RUL of degraded lithium-ion batteries. Empirical comparisons show that the proposed hybrid prognostic approach using the selective kernel ensemble-based RVM learning algorithm performs better than the hybrid prognostic approaches using the popular learning algorithms of feedforward artificial neural networks (ANNs like the conventional backpropagation (BP algorithm and support vector machines (SVMs. In addition, an investigation is also conducted to identify the effects of RVM learning algorithm on the proposed hybrid prognostic approach.

  14. Submarine Propulsion Shaft Life: Probabilistic Prediction and Extension through Prevention of Water Ingress

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Inspection. Reliability Engineering and System Safety , 271-292. 47 Shi, P., & Mahadevan, S. (2001). Damage Tolerance Approach for Probabilistic ...Submarine Propulsion Shaft Life: Probabilistic Prediction and Extension through Prevention of Water Ingress By Douglas E. Jonart M.S. Systems...number. 1. REPORT DATE 01 JUN 2014 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Submarine Propulsion Shaft Life: Probabilistic

  15. Academic Life Satisfaction Scale (ALSS) and Its Effectiveness in Predicting Academic Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, P.K. Sudheesh; P., Dileep

    2006-01-01

    This study is undertaken to examine the effectiveness of a newly constructed psychometric instrument to assess Academic Life Satisfaction along with the components of Emotional Intelligence. The Academic Life Satisfaction Scale is used to predict the scholastic achievement as an index of Academic success. The investigators found that Academic Life…

  16. Fundamental understanding and life prediction of stress corrosion cracking in BWRs and energy systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andresen, P.L.; Ford, F.P. [General Electric, Schenectady, NY (United States). Corporate Research and Development Center

    1998-03-01

    The objective of this paper is to present an approach for design and lifetime evaluation of environmental cracking based on experimental and fundamental modeling of the underlying processes operative in crack advance. In detailed this approach and its development and quantification for energy (hot water) systems, the requirements for a life prediction methodology will be highlighted and the shortcomings of the existing design and lifetime evaluation codes reviewed. Examples are identified of its use in a variety of cracking systems, such as stainless steels, low alloy steels, nickel base alloys, and irradiation assisted stress corrosion cracking in boiling water reactor (BWR) water, as well as preliminary use for low alloy steel and Alloy 600 in pressurized water reactors (PWRs) and turbine steels in steam turbines. Identification of the common aspects with environmental cracking in other hot water systems provides a secure basis for its extension to related energy systems. 166 refs., 49 figs.

  17. Contact Stress Analysis and Fatigue Life Prediction of a Turbine Fan Disc

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Liang; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Lv, Zhiqiang; Zuo, Fang-Jun; Huang, Hong-Zhong

    2016-06-01

    Fan discs are critical components of an aero engine. In this paper, contact stress and life prediction of a turbine fan disc were investigated. A simplified pin/disc model was conducted to simulate the practical working condition under applied loads using finite element (FE) analysis. This study is devoted to examining the effects of interface condition of pin/disc such as gap and coefficient upon the maximum stress. The FE model indicated that the maximum stress occurs at the top right corner in the second pin hole, and larger gap or friction coefficient has a significant effect on the maximum stress. In addition, FE analysis without considering friction is also conducted. The results show that the dangerous point is similar to the result which considers friction and the stress state is relatively larger than that of considering friction. Finally, based on FE analysis result, life prediction for the fan disc is conducted to combine the material S-N curve, mean stress effects and concentration stress factor obtained by means of FE method.

  18. A review on fatigue life prediction methods for anti-vibration rubber materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoli WANG

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Anti-vibration rubber, because of its superior elasticity, plasticity, waterproof and trapping characteristics, is widely used in the automotive industry, national defense, construction and other fields. The theory and technology of predicting fatigue life is of great significance to improve the durability design and manufacturing of anti-vibration rubber products. According to the characteristics of the anti-vibration rubber products in service, the technical difficulties for analyzing fatigue properties of anti-vibration rubber materials are pointed out. The research progress of the fatigue properties of rubber materials is reviewed from three angles including methods of fatigue crack initiation, fatigue crack propagation and fatigue damage accumulation. It is put forward that some nonlinear characteristics of rubber under fatigue loading, including the Mullins effect, permanent deformation and cyclic stress softening, should be considered in the further study of rubber materials. Meanwhile, it is indicated that the fatigue damage accumulation method based on continuum damage mechanics might be more appropriate to solve fatigue damage and life prediction problems for complex rubber materials and structures under fatigue loading.

  19. Speech Intelligibility Prediction Based on Mutual Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jesper; Taal, Cees H.

    2014-01-01

    This paper deals with the problem of predicting the average intelligibility of noisy and potentially processed speech signals, as observed by a group of normal hearing listeners. We propose a model which performs this prediction based on the hypothesis that intelligibility is monotonically related...... to the mutual information between critical-band amplitude envelopes of the clean signal and the corresponding noisy/processed signal. The resulting intelligibility predictor turns out to be a simple function of the mean-square error (mse) that arises when estimating a clean critical-band amplitude using...... a minimum mean-square error (mmse) estimator based on the noisy/processed amplitude. The proposed model predicts that speech intelligibility cannot be improved by any processing of noisy critical-band amplitudes. Furthermore, the proposed intelligibility predictor performs well ( ρ > 0.95) in predicting...

  20. Crack Growth Modeling and Life Prediction of Pipeline Steels Exposed to Near-Neutral pH Environments: Stage II Crack Growth and Overall Life Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jiaxi; Chen, Weixing; Yu, Mengshan; Chevil, Karina; Eadie, Reg; Been, Jenny; Van Boven, Greg; Kania, Richard; Keane, Sean

    2017-04-01

    This investigation was initiated to provide governing equations for crack initiation, crack growth, and service life prediction of pipeline steels in near-neutral pH (NNpH) environments. This investigation develops a predictive model considering loading interactions occurring during oil and gas pipeline operation with underload-type variable pressure fluctuations. This method has predicted lifetimes comparable to the actual service lives found in the field. This is in sharp contrast with the predictions made by existing methods that are either conservative or inconsistent with the field observations. It has been demonstrated that large slash loads ( R-ratio is 0.05), often seen during gas pipeline operation, are a major life-limiting factor and should be avoided where possible. Oil pipelines have shorter lifetime because of their more frequent pressure fluctuations and larger amplitude load cycles. The accuracy of prediction can be improved if pressure data with appropriate sampling intervals are used. The sampling interval error is much larger in the prediction of oil pipelines than gas pipelines because of their different compressibility but is minimized if the pressure sampling rate for the data is at or less than one minute.

  1. Time-Delay Artificial Neural Network Computing Models for Predicting Shelf Life of Processed Cheese

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumit Goyal

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the capability of Time–delay artificial neural network models for predicting shelf life of processed cheese. Datasets were divided into two subsets (30 for training and 6 for validation. Models with single and multi layers were developed and compared with each other. Mean Square Error, Root Mean Square Error, Coefficient of Determination and Nash -
    Sutcliffo Coefficient were used as performance evaluators, Time- delay model predicted the shelf life of processed cheese as 28.25 days, which is very close to experimental shelf life of 30 days.

  2. Study of the spiritual intelligence role in predicting university students' quality of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolghan-Abadi, Mustafa; Ghofrani, Fatemeh; Abde-Khodaei, Mohammad Saeed

    2014-02-01

    The aim of the study is to investigate the spiritual intelligence role in predicting Quchan University students' quality of life. In order to collect data, a sample of 143 students of Quechan University was selected randomly enrolled for 89-90 academic year. The instruments of the data collecting are World Health Organization Quality of Life (WHOQOL) and Spiritual Intelligence Questionnaire. For analyzing the data, the standard deviation, and Pearson's correlation coefficient in descriptive level, and in inferential level, the regression test was used. The results of the study show that the spiritual intelligence has effective role on predicting quality of life.

  3. Fatigue Life Prediction of 2D Woven Ceramic-Matrix Composites at Room and Elevated Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longbiao, Li

    2017-02-01

    In this paper, the fatigue life of 2D woven ceramic-matrix composites, i.e., SiC/SiC, SiC/Si-N-C, SiC/Si-B4C, and Nextel 610™/Aluminosilicate, at room and elevated temperatures has been predicted using the micromechanics approach. An effective coefficient of the fiber volume fraction along the loading direction (ECFL) was introduced to describe the fiber architecture of preforms. The Budiansky-Hutchinson-Evans shear-lag model was used to describe the microstress field of the damaged composite considering fibers failure. The statistical matrix multicracking model and fracture mechanics interface debonding criterion were used to determine the matrix crack spacing and interface debonded length. The interface shear stress and fibers strength degradation model and oxidation region propagation model have been adopted to analyze the fatigue and oxidation effects on fatigue life of the composite, which is controlled by interface frictional slip and diffusion of oxygen gas through matrix multicrackings. Under cyclic fatigue loading, the fibers broken fraction was determined by combining the interface/fiber oxidation model, interface wear model and fibers statistical failure model at elevated temperatures, based on the assumption that the fiber strength is subjected to two-parameter Weibull distribution and the load carried by broken and intact fibers satisfy the Global Load Sharing (GLS) criterion. When the broken fibers fraction approaches to the critical value, the composites fatigue fractures. The fatigue life S-N curves of 2D SiC/SiC, SiC/Si-N-C, SiC/Si-B4C, and Nextel 610™/Aluminosilicate composites at room temperature and 800, 1000 and 1200 °C in air and steam have been predicted.

  4. Time Perspectives Predict Mood States and Satisfaction with Life over and above Personality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolarski, Maciej; Matthews, Gerald

    2016-01-01

    The present study aimed to test the incremental validity of Time Perspective (TP) scales in predicting satisfaction with life and mood, over and above the Big Five personality traits. It also investigated whether the new TP construct of Future Negative perspective contributed to prediction of these outcomes. Participants (N = 265) completed four measures: Satisfaction With Life Scale (SWLS), UWIST Mood Adjective Checklist (UMACL), a modified Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory (ZTPI), and NEO-Five Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI). Results confirmed the incremental validity of TP, although Big Five dimensions were independently predictive of life satisfaction and certain mood scales. Past Negative TP was the strongest single predictor of life satisfaction. However, Future Negative TP was be the strongest mood predictor from the TP universe, after controlling for the Big Five and remaining TP dimensions. Findings suggest that TP is an important aspect of personality for understanding individual differences in well-being.

  5. Prediction of multiaxial fatigue life for notched specimens of titanium alloy TC4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Z. R.; Li, Z. X. [Southeast University, Nanjing (China); Hu, X. T.; Song, Y. D. [Nanjing University, Nanjing (China)

    2016-05-15

    Both the proportional and nonproportional multiaxial fatigue tests were conducted on two kinds of notched specimens of titanium alloy TC4. The multiaxial fatigue critical area of notched specimen is considered as the location experiencing the maximum damage. It is unsatisfactory to predict the multiaxial fatigue life with the local stress and strain in the fatigue critical area. The critical distance concepts are employed in the multiaxial life prediction method for notched specimens. The proposed method was checked by the test data of TC4 notched specimens. The prediction results are almost within a factor of three scatter band of the test results.

  6. LINEAR LAYER AND GENERALIZED REGRESSION COMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE MODELS FOR PREDICTING SHELF LIFE OF PROCESSED CHEESE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Goyal

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper highlights the significance of computational intelligence models for predicting shelf life of processed cheese stored at 7-8 g.C. Linear Layer and Generalized Regression models were developed with input parameters: Soluble nitrogen, pH, Standard plate count, Yeast & mould count, Spores, and sensory score as output parameter. Mean Square Error, Root Mean Square Error, Coefficient of Determination and Nash - Sutcliffo Coefficient were used in order to compare the prediction ability of the models. The study revealed that Generalized Regression computational intelligence models are quite effective in predicting the shelf life of processed cheese stored at 7-8 g.C.

  7. Time – Delay Simulated Artificial Neural Network Models for Predicting Shelf Life of Processed Cheese

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumit Goyal

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper highlights the significance of Time-Delay ANN models for predicting shelf life of processed cheese stored at 7-8o^C. Bayesian regularization algorithm was selected as training function. Number of neurons in single and multiple hidden layers varied from 1 to 20. The network was trained with up to 100 epochs. Mean square error, root mean square error, coefficient of determination and nash - Sutcliffe coefficient were used for calculating the prediction capability of the developed models. Time-Delay ANN models with multilayer are quite efficient in predicting the shelf life of processed cheese stored at 7-8o^C.

  8. Predicting water quality criteria for protecting aquatic life from physicochemical properties of metals or metalloids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Fengchang; Mu, Yunsong; Chang, Hong; Zhao, Xiaoli; Giesy, John P; Wu, K Benjamin

    2013-01-02

    Metals are widely distributed pollutants in water and can have detrimental effects on some aquatic life and humans. Over the past few decades, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) has published a series of criteria guidelines, which contain specific criteria maximum concentrations (CMCs) for 10 metals. However, CMCs for other metals are still lacking because of financial, practical, or ethical restrictions on toxicity testing. Herein, a quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) method was used to develop a set of predictive relationships, based on physical and chemical characteristics of metals, and predict acute toxicities of each species for five phyla and eight families of organisms for 25 metals or metalloids. In addition, species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) were developed as independent methods for determining predictive CMCs. The quantitative ion character-activity relationships (QICAR) analysis showed that the softness index (σp), maximum complex stability constants (log -β(n)), electrochemical potential (ΔE(0)), and covalent index (X(m)(2)r) were the minimum set of structure parameters required to predict toxicity of metals to eight families of representative organisms. Predicted CMCs for 10 metals are in reasonable agreement with those recommended previously by U.S. EPA within a difference of 1.5 orders of magnitude. CMCs were significantly related to σp (r(2) = 0.76, P = 7.02 × 10(-9)) and log -β(n) (r(2) = 0.73, P = 3.88 × 10(-8)). The novel QICAR-SSD model reported here is a rapid, cost-effective, and reasonably accurate method, which can provide a beneficial supplement to existing methodologies for developing preliminarily screen level toxicities or criteria for metals, for which little or no relevant information on the toxicity to particular classes of aquatic organisms exists.

  9. A multi-time scale approach to remaining useful life prediction in rolling bearing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Yuning; Yan, Ruqiang; Gao, Robert X.

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a novel multi-time scale approach to bearing defect tracking and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction, which integrates enhanced phase space warping (PSW) with a modified Paris crack growth model. As a data-driven method, PSW describes the dynamical behavior of the bearing being tested on a fast-time scale, whereas the Paris crack growth model, as a physics-based model, characterizes the bearing's defect propagation on a slow-time scale. Theoretically, PSW constructs a tracking metric by evaluating the phase space trajectory warping of the bearing vibration data, and establishes a correlation between measurement on a fast-time scale and defect growth variables on a slow-time scale. Furthermore, PSW is enhanced by a multi-dimensional auto-regression (AR) model for improved accuracy in defect tracking. Also, the Paris crack growth model is modified by a time-piecewise algorithm for real-time RUL prediction. Case studies performed on two run-to-failure experiments indicate that the developed technique is effective in tracking the evolution of bearing defects and accurately predict the bearing RUL, thus contributing to the literature of bearing prognosis .

  10. Condition Assessment and End-of-Life Prediction System for Electric Machines and Their Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parlos, Alexander G.; Toliyat, Hamid A.

    2005-01-01

    An end-of-life prediction system developed for electric machines and their loads could be used in integrated vehicle health monitoring at NASA and in other government agencies. This system will provide on-line, real-time condition assessment and end-of-life prediction of electric machines (e.g., motors, generators) and/or their loads of mechanically coupled machinery (e.g., pumps, fans, compressors, turbines, conveyor belts, magnetic levitation trains, and others). In long-duration space flight, the ability to predict the lifetime of machinery could spell the difference between mission success or failure. Therefore, the system described here may be of inestimable value to the U.S. space program. The system will provide continuous monitoring for on-line condition assessment and end-of-life prediction as opposed to the current off-line diagnoses.

  11. TMC Behavior Modeling and Life Prediction Under Multiaxial Stresses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrick, H. F.; Aksoy, S. Z.; Costen, M.; Ahmad, J.

    1998-01-01

    The goal of this program was to manufacture and burst test small diameter SCS-6/Ti-6Al-4V composite rings for use in the design of an advanced titanium matrix composite (TMC) impeller. The Textron Specialty Metals grooved foil-fiber process was successfully used to make high quality TMC rings. A novel spin test arbor with "soft touch" fingers to retain the TMC ring was designed and manufactured. The design of the arbor took into account its use for cyclic experiments as well as ring burst tests. Spin testing of the instrumented ring was performed at ambient, 149C (300F), and 316C (600F) temperatures. Assembly vibration was encountered during spin testing but this was overcome through simple modification of the arbor. A spin-to-burst test was successfully completed at 316C (600F). The rotational speed of the TMC ring at burst was close to that predicted. In addition to the spin test program, a number of SCS-6/Ti-6Al-4V test panels were made. Neat Ti-6Al-4V panels also were made.

  12. The OASE project: Object-based Analysis and Seamless prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troemel, Silke; Wapler, Kathrin; Bick, Theresa; Diederich, Malte; Deneke, Hartwig; Horvath, Akos; Senf, Fabian; Simmer, Clemens; Simon, Juergen

    2013-04-01

    The research group on Object-based Analysis and SEamless prediction (OASE) is part of the Hans Ertel Centre for Weather Research (HErZ). The group consists of scientists at the Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, the Leibniz-Institute for Tropospheric Research in Leipzig and the German Weather Service. OASE addresses seamless prediction of convective events from nowcasting to daily predictions by combining radar/satellite compositing and tracking with high-resolution model-based ensemble generation and prediction. While observation-based nowcasting provides good results for lead times between 0-1 hours, numerical weather prediction addresses lead times between 3-21 hours. Especially the discontinuity between 1-3 hours needs to be addressed. Therefore a central goal of the project is a near real-time high-resolved unprecedented data base. A radar and satellite remote sensing-driven 3D observation-microphysics composite covering Germany, currently under development, contains gridded observations and estimated microphysical quantities. Observations and microphysics are intertwined via forward operators and estimated inverse relations, which also provide uncertainties for model ensemble initialisations. The lifetime evolution of dynamics and microphysics in (severe) convective storms is analysed based on 3D scale-space tracking. An object-based analysis condenses the information contained in the dynamic 3D distributions of observables and related microphysics into descriptors, which will allow identifying governing processes leading to the formation and evolution of severe weather events. The object-based approach efficiently characterises and quantifies the process structure and life cycles of severe weather events, and facilitates nowcasting and the generation and initialisation of model prediction ensembles. Observation-based nowcasting will exploit the dual-composite based 3D feature detection and tracking to generate a set of predictions (observation-based

  13. Reinforcement Corrosion: Numerical Simulation and Service Life Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michel, Alexander

    substances in concrete a heat and mass transport model was applied, which is based on thermodynamic principles. To incorporate the influence of temperature and chloride on the moisture sorption extensions were made using experimental results. The impact ofchlorides on the moisture sorption was accounted...... concrete specimens was demonstrated comparing experimental ingress results and numerical simulations. The corrosion model, which is coupled to the transport model, was used to describe electrochemical processes at the reinforcement surface. The corrosion model was based on generally accepted physical laws...... describing thermodynamics and kinetics of electrochemical processes. The applicabilityof the model to capture various reinforcement corrosion phenomena, such as activation, resistance, and concentration polarisation as well as the impact of temperature and relative humidity was demonstrated comparing...

  14. Validation of Framework Code Approach to a Life Prediction System for Fiber Reinforced Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gravett, Phillip

    1997-01-01

    The grant was conducted by the MMC Life Prediction Cooperative, an industry/government collaborative team, Ohio Aerospace Institute (OAI) acted as the prime contractor on behalf of the Cooperative for this grant effort. See Figure I for the organization and responsibilities of team members. The technical effort was conducted during the period August 7, 1995 to June 30, 1996 in cooperation with Erwin Zaretsky, the LERC Program Monitor. Phil Gravett of Pratt & Whitney was the principal technical investigator. Table I documents all meeting-related coordination memos during this period. The effort under this grant was closely coordinated with an existing USAF sponsored program focused on putting into practice a life prediction system for turbine engine components made of metal matrix composites (MMC). The overall architecture of the NMC life prediction system was defined in the USAF sponsored program (prior to this grant). The efforts of this grant were focussed on implementing and tailoring of the life prediction system, the framework code within it and the damage modules within it to meet the specific requirements of the Cooperative. T'he tailoring of the life prediction system provides the basis for pervasive and continued use of this capability by the industry/government cooperative. The outputs of this grant are: 1. Definition of the framework code to analysis modules interfaces, 2. Definition of the interface between the materials database and the finite element model, and 3. Definition of the integration of the framework code into an FEM design tool.

  15. Life prediction of coated and uncoated metallic interconnect for solid oxide fuel cell applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, W. N.; Sun, X.; Stephens, E.; Khaleel, M. A.

    In this paper, we present an integrated experimental and modeling methodology in predicting the life of coated and uncoated metallic interconnect (IC) for solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) applications. The ultimate goal is to provide cell designer and manufacture with a predictive methodology such that the life of the IC system can be managed and optimized through different coating thickness to meet the overall cell designed life. Crofer 22 APU is used as the example IC material system. The life of coated and uncoated Crofer 22 APU under isothermal cooling was predicted by comparing the predicted interfacial strength and the interfacial stresses induced by the cooling process from the operating temperature to room temperature, together with the measured oxide scale growth kinetics. It was found that the interfacial strength between the oxide scale and the Crofer 22 APU substrate decreases with the growth of the oxide scale, and that the interfacial strength for the oxide scale/spinel coating interface is much higher than that of the oxide scale/Crofer 22 APU substrate interface. As expected, the predicted life of the coated Crofer 22 APU is significantly longer than that of the uncoated Crofer 22 APU.

  16. In silico network topology-based prediction of gene essentiality

    CERN Document Server

    da Silva, Joao Paulo Muller; Mombach, Jose Carlos Merino; Vieira, Renata; da Silva, Jose Guliherme Camargo; Lemke, Ney; Sinigaglia, Marialva

    2007-01-01

    The identification of genes essential for survival is important for the understanding of the minimal requirements for cellular life and for drug design. As experimental studies with the purpose of building a catalog of essential genes for a given organism are time-consuming and laborious, a computational approach which could predict gene essentiality with high accuracy would be of great value. We present here a novel computational approach, called NTPGE (Network Topology-based Prediction of Gene Essentiality), that relies on network topology features of a gene to estimate its essentiality. The first step of NTPGE is to construct the integrated molecular network for a given organism comprising protein physical, metabolic and transcriptional regulation interactions. The second step consists in training a decision tree-based machine learning algorithm on known essential and non-essential genes of the organism of interest, considering as learning attributes the network topology information for each of these genes...

  17. A New Approach for Reliability Life Prediction of Rail Vehicle Axle by Considering Vibration Measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meral Bayraktar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The effect of vibration on the axle has been considered. Vibration measurements at different speeds have been performed on the axle of a running rail vehicle to figure out displacement, acceleration, time, and frequency response. Based on the experimental works, equivalent stress has been used to find out life of the axles for 90% and 10% reliability. Calculated life values of the rail vehicle axle have been compared with the real life data and it is found that the life of a vehicle axle taking into account the vibration effects is in good agreement with the real life of the axle.

  18. Prediction of Fatigue Life of Boom Nose End Casting Using Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics

    OpenAIRE

    Nitin D.Ghongade; Rajesh.M. Metkar

    2014-01-01

    The main objective of this study is to get the life estimation of Boom nose end casting using theoretical approach and compaired it with finite element method. Therefore, this study consists of three major sections : (1) dynamic load analysis (2) FEM and stress analysis (3) prediction of fatigue life for Boom nose end casting. In this study a dynamic loads were obtained from cyclic loading at different time. Finite element analysis was performed to obtain the variation of stress...

  19. A Novel Creep-Fatigue Life Prediction Model for P92 Steel on the Basis of Cyclic Strain Energy Density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Dongmei; Ren, Jianxing; Zhang, Lai-Chang

    2016-11-01

    A novel creep-fatigue life prediction model was deduced based on an expression of the strain energy density in this study. In order to obtain the expression of the strain energy density, the load-controlled creep-fatigue (CF) tests of P92 steel at 873 K were carried out. Cyclic strain of P92 steel under CF load was divided into elastic strain, applying and unloading plastic strain, creep strain, and anelastic strain. Analysis of cyclic strain indicates that the damage process of P92 steel under CF load consists of three stages, similar to pure creep. According to the characteristics of the strains above, an expression was defined to describe the strain energy density for each cycle. The strain energy density at stable stage is inversely proportional to the total strain energy density dissipated by P92 steel. However, the total strain energy densities under different test conditions are proportional to the fatigue life. Therefore, the expression of the strain energy density at stable stage was chosen to predict the fatigue life. The CF experimental data on P92 steel were employed to verify the rationality of the novel model. The model obtained from the load-controlled CF test of P92 steel with short holding time could predict the fatigue life of P92 steel with long holding time.

  20. A Novel Creep-Fatigue Life Prediction Model for P92 Steel on the Basis of Cyclic Strain Energy Density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Dongmei; Ren, Jianxing; Zhang, Lai-Chang

    2016-09-01

    A novel creep-fatigue life prediction model was deduced based on an expression of the strain energy density in this study. In order to obtain the expression of the strain energy density, the load-controlled creep-fatigue (CF) tests of P92 steel at 873 K were carried out. Cyclic strain of P92 steel under CF load was divided into elastic strain, applying and unloading plastic strain, creep strain, and anelastic strain. Analysis of cyclic strain indicates that the damage process of P92 steel under CF load consists of three stages, similar to pure creep. According to the characteristics of the strains above, an expression was defined to describe the strain energy density for each cycle. The strain energy density at stable stage is inversely proportional to the total strain energy density dissipated by P92 steel. However, the total strain energy densities under different test conditions are proportional to the fatigue life. Therefore, the expression of the strain energy density at stable stage was chosen to predict the fatigue life. The CF experimental data on P92 steel were employed to verify the rationality of the novel model. The model obtained from the load-controlled CF test of P92 steel with short holding time could predict the fatigue life of P92 steel with long holding time.

  1. Ceramic material life prediction: A program to translate ANSYS results to CARES/LIFE reliability analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vonhermann, Pieter; Pintz, Adam

    1994-01-01

    This manual describes the use of the ANSCARES program to prepare a neutral file of FEM stress results taken from ANSYS Release 5.0, in the format needed by CARES/LIFE ceramics reliability program. It is intended for use by experienced users of ANSYS and CARES. Knowledge of compiling and linking FORTRAN programs is also required. Maximum use is made of existing routines (from other CARES interface programs and ANSYS routines) to extract the finite element results and prepare the neutral file for input to the reliability analysis. FORTRAN and machine language routines as described are used to read the ANSYS results file. Sub-element stresses are computed and written to a neutral file using FORTRAN subroutines which are nearly identical to those used in the NASCARES (MSC/NASTRAN to CARES) interface.

  2. Analytical algorithms to quantify the uncertainty in remaining useful life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sankararaman, S.; Daigle, M.; Saxena, A.; Goebel, K.

    This paper investigates the use of analytical algorithms to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life (RUL) estimate of components used in aerospace applications. The prediction of RUL is affected by several sources of uncertainty and it is important to systematically quantify their combined effect by computing the uncertainty in the RUL prediction in order to aid risk assessment, risk mitigation, and decision-making. While sampling-based algorithms have been conventionally used for quantifying the uncertainty in RUL, analytical algorithms are computationally cheaper and sometimes, are better suited for online decision-making. While exact analytical algorithms are available only for certain special cases (for e.g., linear models with Gaussian variables), effective approximations can be made using the first-order second moment method (FOSM), the first-order reliabilitymethod (FORM), and the inverse first-order reliabilitymethod (Inverse FORM). These methods can be used not only to calculate the entire probability distribution of RUL but also to obtain probability bounds on RUL. This paper explains these three methods in detail and illustrates them using the state-space model of a lithium-ion battery.

  3. Potential of artificial neural network technology for predicting shelf life of processed cheese

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumit Goyal

    Full Text Available Radial basis (fewer neurons artificial neural network (ANN models were developed for predicting the shelf life of processed cheese stored at 7-8o C. Mean square error, root mean square error, coefficient of determination and nash - sutcliffo coefficient were applied in order to compare the prediction ability of the developed models. Soluble nitrogen, pH; standard plate count, yeast & mouldcount, and spore count were the input parameters, while sensory score was output parameter for the developed model. The developed model showed very good correlation between actual data and predicted data with high coefficient of determination and nash - sutcliffo coefficient besides low root mean square error, suggesting that the developed model is quite efficient in predicting the shelf life of processed cheese.

  4. Application and limitations on thermal and spectroscopic methods for shelf-life prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woo, Lecon [Baxter Healthcare, Round Lake, IL 60073 (United States)]. E-mail: Wool@baxter.com; Ling, Michael T.K. [Baxter Healthcare, Round Lake, IL 60073 (United States); Eu, Bruce [Baxter Healthcare, Round Lake, IL 60073 (United States); Sandford, Craig [Baxter Healthcare, Round Lake, IL 60073 (United States)

    2006-03-15

    In medical products, shelf-life after thermoplastic processing and sterilization is important, and ionizing radiation has become a preferred sterilization mode for medical devices. We have employed successfully thermal analytical methods to predict shelf-life for many polyolefin materials. However, as the material of construction becoming more sophisticated: multiphase alloys and blends, multi-layer constructions, etc., issues existed that require clarification as to what extent these methodologies are applicable. We have employed thermal analytical methods in conjunction with other spectroscopic and morphological methods to study the applicability and limitation of these techniques. Results combined with real life and simulated aging experiments will be presented in this article.

  5. Predictions for fatigue crack growth life of cracked pipes and pipe welds using RMS SIF approach and experimental validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arora, Punit, E-mail: punit@barc.gov.in [Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Department of Atomic Energy, Maharashtra, Mumbai 400 085 (India); Singh, P.K.; Bhasin, Vivek; Vaze, K.K.; Ghosh, A.K. [Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Department of Atomic Energy, Maharashtra, Mumbai 400 085 (India); Pukazhendhi, D.M.; Gandhi, P.; Raghava, G. [Structural Engineering Research Centre, Chennai 600 113 (India)

    2011-10-15

    The objective of the present study is to understand the fatigue crack growth behavior in austenitic stainless steel pipes and pipe welds by carrying out analysis/predictions and experiments. The Paris law has been used for the prediction of fatigue crack growth life. To carry out the analysis, Paris constants have been determined for pipe (base) and pipe weld materials by using Compact Tension (CT) specimens machined from the actual pipe/pipe weld. Analyses have been carried out to predict the fatigue crack growth life of the austenitic stainless steel pipes/pipes welds having part through cracks on the outer surface. In the analyses, Stress Intensity Factors (K) have been evaluated through two different schemes. The first scheme considers the 'K' evaluations at two points of the crack front i.e. maximum crack depth and crack tip at the outer surface. The second scheme accounts for the area averaged root mean square stress intensity factor (K{sub RMS}) at deepest and surface points. Crack growth and the crack shape with loading cycles have been evaluated. In order to validate the analytical procedure/results, experiments have been carried out on full scale pipe and pipe welds with part through circumferential crack. Fatigue crack growth life evaluated using both schemes have been compared with experimental results. Use of stress intensity factor (K{sub RMS}) evaluated using second scheme gives better fatigue crack growth life prediction compared to that of first scheme. Fatigue crack growth in pipe weld (Gas Tungsten Arc Welding) can be predicted well using Paris constants of base material but prediction is non-conservative for pipe weld (Shielded Metal Arc Welding). Further, predictions using fatigue crack growth rate curve of ASME produces conservative results for pipe and GTAW pipe welds and comparable results for SMAW pipe welds. - Highlights: > Predicting fatigue crack growth of Austenitic Stainless Steel pipes and pipe welds. > Use of RMS-SIF and

  6. Wavelet-based prediction of oil prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yousefi, Shahriar [Econometric Group, Department of Economics, University of Southern Denmark, DK-5230 Odense M (Denmark); Weinreich, Ilona [Department of Mathematics and Technology, University of Applied Sciences Koblenz, RheinAhr Campus, D-53424 Remagen (Germany)]. E-mail: weinreich@rheinahrcampus.de; Reinarz, Dominik [Department of Mathematics and Technology, University of Applied Sciences Koblenz, RheinAhr Campus, D-53424 Remagen (Germany)

    2005-07-01

    This paper illustrates an application of wavelets as a possible vehicle for investigating the issue of market efficiency in futures markets for oil. The paper provides a short introduction to the wavelets and a few interesting wavelet-based contributions in economics and finance are briefly reviewed. A wavelet-based prediction procedure is introduced and market data on crude oil is used to provide forecasts over different forecasting horizons. The results are compared with data from futures markets for oil and the relative performance of this procedure is used to investigate whether futures markets are efficiently priced.

  7. Temperature-based bioclimatic parameters can predict nematode metabolic footprints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhusal, Daya Ram; Tsiafouli, Maria A; Sgardelis, Stefanos P

    2015-09-01

    Nematode metabolic footprints (MFs) refer to the lifetime amount of metabolized carbon per individual, indicating a connection to soil food web functions and eventually to processes supporting ecosystem services. Estimating and managing these at a convenient scale requires information upscaling from the soil sample to the landscape level. We explore the feasibility of predicting nematode MFs from temperature-based bioclimatic parameters across a landscape. We assume that temperature effects are reflected in MFs, since temperature variations determine life processes ranging from enzyme activities to community structure. We use microclimate data recorded for 1 year from sites differing by orientation, altitude and vegetation cover. At the same sites we estimate MFs for each nematode trophic group. Our models show that bioclimatic parameters, specifically those accounting for temporal variations in temperature and extremities, predict most of the variation in nematode MFs. Higher fungivorous and lower bacterivorous nematode MFs are predicted for sites with high seasonality and low isothermality (sites of low vegetation, mostly at low altitudes), indicating differences in the relative contribution of the corresponding food web channels to the metabolism of carbon across the landscape. Higher plant-parasitic MFs were predicted for sites with high seasonality. The fitted models provide realistic predictions of unknown cases within the range of the predictor's values, allowing for the interpolation of MFs within the sampled region. We conclude that upscaling of the bioindication potential of nematode communities is feasible and can provide new perspectives not only in the field of soil ecology but other research areas as well.

  8. End-of-life vehicle recycling based on disassembly

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xiang; QIN Ye; CHEN Ming; WANG Cheng-tao

    2005-01-01

    The end-of-life vehicle recycling was studied based on the disassembly. The end-of-life recycling and the disassembly were reviewed and discussed. A disassembly experiment of an end-of-life engine was carried out, which strictly recorded the process of dismantling. Based on the results, a model of the end-of-life recycling was presented. In this model, the end-of-life parts were classified by three ways which included to recycle directly, to recycleafter remanufacturing and to discard. By using this model, the dismantling efficiency and the recycling rate can be improved. Also, it obtains a good result after used in a dismantling factory.

  9. Yarn Properties Prediction Based on Machine Learning Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Jian-guo; L(U) Zhi-jun; LI Bei-zhi

    2007-01-01

    Although many works have been done to constructprediction models on yarn processing quality, the relationbetween spinning variables and yam properties has not beenestablished conclusively so far. Support vector machines(SVMs), based on statistical learning theory, are gainingapplications in the areas of machine learning and patternrecognition because of the high accuracy and goodgeneralization capability. This study briefly introduces theSVM regression algorithms, and presents the SVM basedsystem architecture for predicting yam properties. Model.selection which amounts to search in hyper-parameter spaceis performed for study of suitable parameters with grid-research method. Experimental results have been comparedwith those of artificial neural network(ANN) models. Theinvestigation indicates that in the small data sets and real-life production, SVM models are capable of remaining thestability of predictive accuracy, and more suitable for noisyand dynamic spinning process.

  10. Predicting trajectories of offending over the life course : findings from a Dutch conviction cohort

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bersani, B.; Nieuwbeerta, P.; Laub, J.H.

    2009-01-01

    Distinguishing trajectories of criminal offending over the life course, especially the prediction of high-rate offenders, has received considerable attention over the past two decades. Motivated by a recent study by Sampson and Laub (2003), this study uses longitudinal data on conviction histories f

  11. The Level of Quality of Work Life to Predict Work Alienation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdem, Mustafa

    2014-01-01

    The current research aims to determine the level of elementary school teachers' quality of work life (QWL) to predict work alienation. The study was designed using the relational survey model. The research population consisted of 1096 teachers employed at 25 elementary schools within the city of Van in the academic year 2010- 2011, and 346…

  12. Pre-transplant quality of life does not predict survival after lung transplantation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, Karin M.; TenVergert, Elisabeth M.; Verschuuren, Erik A. M.; Erasmus, Michiel E.; van der Bij, Wim

    2008-01-01

    Background: Currently, the goal of lung transplantation is not only to improve survival but also includes' improvement of health-related quality of life (HRQL). Limited knowledge is available about the value of HRQL before lung transplantation with regard to predicting survival after lung transplant

  13. Illness cognitions in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma: Predicting quality of life outcome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Scharloo (Margreet); R.J.B. de Jong; T.P.M. Langeveld (ton); E. van Velzen-Verkaik (Els); M.M. den Doorn-op den Akker (Margreet); A.A. Kaptein (Adrian)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractGoals of work: This paper presents an observational study of the longitudinal effects of cancer treatment on quality of life (QoL) in patients treated for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), and evaluated the contribution of patients' baseline illness cognitions to the predict

  14. Fatigue in high-speed aluminium craft: A design methodology for predicting the fatigue life

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tuitman, J.T.; Hoogendoorn, D.

    2013-01-01

    Within the VOMAS project, a methodology has been developed to predict the fatigue life of high-speed aluminium crafts. This paper describes this methodology and its implementation into a computational tool. This methodology computes the seakeeping and resulting pressure at the structure for all cond

  15. The Role of Life Satisfaction and Parenting Styles in Predicting Delinquent Behaviors among High School Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onder, Fulya Cenkseven; Yilmaz, Yasin

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine whether the parenting styles and life satisfaction predict delinquent behaviors frequently or not. Firstly the data were collected from 471 girls and 410 boys, a total of 881 high school students. Then the research was carried out with 502 students showing low (n = 262, 52.2%) and high level of delinquent…

  16. Predicting life satisfaction in Angolan elderly: The moderating effect of gender

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available A considerable amount of research has been done to explain life satisfaction in the elderly, and there is growing empirical evidence on the best predictors of life satisfaction. When studying elderly's lifesatisfaction and its predictors, gender differences have been found in several studies, including significant interactions with widowhood, for example. In this context, the present study aims were: (1 to test for the gender invariance in a life satisfaction measure; (2 to predict life satisfaction using several variables related to the aging process; and (3 to test the potential moderator effects due to gender in this prediction. Participants were 1003 Angolan elderly. Several multi-group (men vs. women MIMIC structural models were tested. First, results showed that there is gender invariance for the measurement of life satisfaction. Second, results found no moderation effects on key variables of the aging process. In other words, the estimated effects of psychosocial variables on life satisfaction remain the same for both genders. The discussion relates these results to the existing literature and posits the contributions of the study.

  17. Predictors and processes associated with home-based family therapists' professional quality of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macchi, C R; Johnson, Matthew D; Durtschi, Jared A

    2014-07-01

    This study examined whether home-based family therapists' (HBFT) workload and clinical experience were associated with therapists' professional quality of life directly and indirectly through self-care activities and frequency of clinical supervision. Hypotheses were tested using structural equation modeling with a sample of 225 home-based therapists. Results suggested that therapists' workload and HBFT experience significantly predicted therapists' professional quality of life. These associations between therapists' workload and HBFT experience were partially mediated through participation in self-care and frequency of clinical supervision. Implications for improving therapists' quality of life are discussed as a function of therapists' workload, clinical experience, self-care, and supervision.

  18. Distance saturation product predicts health–related quality of life among sarcoidosis patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bourbonnais Julie M

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Sarcoidosis is a chronic disease with different phenotypic manifestations. Health-related quality of life is an important aspect in sarcoidosis, yet difficult to measure. The objective of this study was to identify clinical markers predictive of poor quality of life in sarcoidosis patients that can be followed over time and targeted for intervention. Methods We assessed the quality of life of 162 patients with confirmed sarcoidosis in a prospective, cross-sectional study using the Sarcoidosis Health Questionnaire (SHQ and Short Form-36 Health Survey (SF-36. We evaluated the validity of these questionnaires and sought to identify variables that would best explain the performance scores of the patients. Results On multivariate regression analyses, the very best composite model to predict total scores from both surveys was a model containing the distance-saturation product and Borg Dyspnea Scale score at the end of a 6-min walk test. This model could better predict SF-36 scores (R2 = 0.33 than SHQ scores (R2 = 0.24. Substitution of distanced walked in 6 min for the distance-saturation product in this model resulted in a lesser ability to predict both scores (R2 = 0.26 for SF-36; R2 = 0.22 for SHQ. Conclusions Both the SHQ and SF-36 surveys are valuable tools in the assessment of health-related quality of life in sarcoidosis patients. The best model to predict quality of life among these patients, as determined by regression analyses, included the distance-saturation product and Borg score after the 6-min walk test. Both variables represent easily obtainable clinical parameters that can be followed over time and targeted for intervention.

  19. Statistical Seasonal Sea Surface based Prediction Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez, Roberto; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Diouf, Ibrahima

    2014-05-01

    The interannual variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) plays a key role in the strongly seasonal rainfall regime on the West African region. The predictability of the seasonal cycle of rainfall is a field widely discussed by the scientific community, with results that fail to be satisfactory due to the difficulty of dynamical models to reproduce the behavior of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). To tackle this problem, a statistical model based on oceanic predictors has been developed at the Universidad Complutense of Madrid (UCM) with the aim to complement and enhance the predictability of the West African Monsoon (WAM) as an alternative to the coupled models. The model, called S4CAST (SST-based Statistical Seasonal Forecast) is based on discriminant analysis techniques, specifically the Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). Beyond the application of the model to the prediciton of rainfall in West Africa, its use extends to a range of different oceanic, atmospheric and helth related parameters influenced by the temperature of the sea surface as a defining factor of variability.

  20. PREDICTION OF FATIGUE LIFE FOR WELDED T-JOINTS OF CONCRETE-FILLED CIRCULAR HOLLOW SECTIONS BASED ON FRACTURE MECHANICS%基于断裂力学的圆钢管混凝土T型焊接节点疲劳寿命预测

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    童乐为; 顾敏; 朱俊; 王柯

    2013-01-01

    该文应用线弹性断裂力学基本原理预测圆钢管混凝土桁架焊接T型节点的疲劳寿命.首先,进行了一些节点的疲劳试验,作为验证节点疲劳寿命预测是否可靠的参考数据;其次,建立了基于断裂力学的疲劳寿命数值模拟的模型和流程框图,采用ANSYS软件编制了APDL宏命令,实现了节点疲劳寿命的计算;最后,分析了节点疲劳裂纹的扩展特性.研究结果表明:断裂力学数值模型能较好地预测这种复杂的钢混组合节点的疲劳寿命;在正常的焊接质量条件下,不同的初始裂纹尺度对节点疲劳扩展寿命的影响不大;裂纹在长度方向的扩展速度大于在深度方向的扩展速度;裂纹深度在达到1/2主管壁厚之前,裂纹沿深度方向的扩展非常缓慢,大部分的疲劳寿命消耗在此阶段,之后裂纹沿深度方向的扩展较快.%The basic theory of linear elastic fracture mechanics was used to predict the fatigue life of welded T-joints in concrete-filled steel circular hollow section trusses. Firstly, some fatigue tests of the joints was carried out, which would be reference data for the validation of fatigue life prediction. Secondly, a model and a flowchart were set up for the numerical simulation of fatigue life based on fracture mechanics. APDL macro commands were developed by means of the software ANSYS, and then the prediction of fatigue life of the joints was implemented. Finally, the behavior of fatigue crack propagation was investigated. It is concluded that the numerical model based on fracture mechanics can better predict the fatigue life of complicated steel-concrete composite joints. The different size of an initial crack does not cause a significant influence in the condition of normal welding quality. The rate of crack propagation in length is faster than that in depth. Before the depth of a crack come to a half of the chord thickness, the crack propagates quite slowly in depth and a large

  1. VIEWS ON SUCCESS IN LIFE BASED GENDER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina Magdalena IORGA

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to study the characteristics of success in life we must consider the social construction of genders (male and female manifested in the interaction between the sexes. Social interpretation of biological sex leads to the identification of a set of behaviors particular to each sex, both in society and subsequently in private life as well as in the public eye. The research aims to identify the opinions and beliefs on the matter of students from the Veterinary Medicine University of Bucharest, their views on success in life, in the work place, in their study environment and in society as a whole, the characteristics of each gender, equality between women and men. The research findings reveal a specific social pattern determined by gender and residential environment.

  2. Weather, knowledge base and life-style

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohle, Martin

    2015-04-01

    Why to main-stream curiosity for earth-science topics, thus to appraise these topics as of public interest? Namely, to influence practices how humankind's activities intersect the geosphere. How to main-stream that curiosity for earth-science topics? Namely, by weaving diverse concerns into common threads drawing on a wide range of perspectives: be it beauty or particularity of ordinary or special phenomena, evaluating hazards for or from mundane environments, or connecting the scholarly investigation with concerns of citizens at large; applying for threading traditional or modern media, arts or story-telling. Three examples: First "weather"; weather is a topic of primordial interest for most people: weather impacts on humans lives, be it for settlement, for food, for mobility, for hunting, for fishing, or for battle. It is the single earth-science topic that went "prime-time" since in the early 1950-ties the broadcasting of weather forecasts started and meteorologists present their work to the public, daily. Second "knowledge base"; earth-sciences are a relevant for modern societies' economy and value setting: earth-sciences provide insights into the evolution of live-bearing planets, the functioning of Earth's systems and the impact of humankind's activities on biogeochemical systems on Earth. These insights bear on production of goods, living conditions and individual well-being. Third "life-style"; citizen's urban culture prejudice their experiential connections: earth-sciences related phenomena are witnessed rarely, even most weather phenomena. In the past, traditional rural communities mediated their rich experiences through earth-centric story-telling. In course of the global urbanisation process this culture has given place to society-centric story-telling. Only recently anthropogenic global change triggered discussions on geoengineering, hazard mitigation, demographics, which interwoven with arts, linguistics and cultural histories offer a rich narrative

  3. Measurement techniques and instruments suitable for life-prediction testing of photovoltaic arrays. Interim report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noel, G.T.; Sliemers, F.A.; Deringer, G.C.; Wood, V.E.; Wilkes, K.E.; Gaines, G.B.; Carmichael, D.C.

    1978-01-15

    The validation of a service life of 20 years for low-cost photovoltaic arrays must be accomplished through accelerated life-prediction tests. A methodology for such tests has been developed in a preceding study. The results discussed consist of the initial identification and assessment of all known measurement techniques and instruments that might be used in these life-prediction tests. Array failure modes, relevant materials property changes, and primary degradation mechanisms are discussed as a prerequisite to identifying suitable measurement techniques and instruments. Candidate techniques and instruments are identified on the basis of extensive reviews of published and unpublished information. These methods are organized in six measurement categories--chemical, electrical, optical, thermal, mechanical, and ''other physicals''. Using specified evaluation criteria, the most promising techniques and instruments for use in life-prediction tests of arrays are then selected. These recommended techniques and their characteristics are described. Recommendations are made regarding establishment of the adequacy, particularly with respect to precision, of the more fully developed techniques for this application, and regarding the experimental evaluation of promising developmental techniques. Measurement needs not satisfied by presently available techniques/instruments are also identified.

  4. An Efficient Deterministic Approach to Model-based Prediction Uncertainty

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics deals with the prediction of the end of life (EOL) of a system. EOL is a random variable, due to the presence of process noise and uncertainty in the...

  5. Life Predicted in a Probabilistic Design Space for Brittle Materials With Transient Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemeth, Noel N.; Palfi, Tamas; Reh, Stefan

    2005-01-01

    Analytical techniques have progressively become more sophisticated, and now we can consider the probabilistic nature of the entire space of random input variables on the lifetime reliability of brittle structures. This was demonstrated with NASA s CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code combined with the commercially available ANSYS/Probabilistic Design System (ANSYS/PDS), a probabilistic analysis tool that is an integral part of the ANSYS finite-element analysis program. ANSYS/PDS allows probabilistic loads, component geometry, and material properties to be considered in the finite-element analysis. CARES/Life predicts the time dependent probability of failure of brittle material structures under generalized thermomechanical loading--such as that found in a turbine engine hot-section. Glenn researchers coupled ANSYS/PDS with CARES/Life to assess the effects of the stochastic variables of component geometry, loading, and material properties on the predicted life of the component for fully transient thermomechanical loading and cyclic loading.

  6. Effect of Notch Location on Fatigue Life Prediction of Strength Mismatched HSLA Steel Weldments

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    S. Ravi; V. Balasubramanian; S. Nemat Nasser

    2004-01-01

    Welding of high strength low alloy steels (HSLA) involves usage of Iow, even and high strength filler materials (electrodes) than the parent material depending on the application of the welded structures and the availability of the filler material. In the present investigation, the fatigue crack growth behaviour of weld metal (WM) and heat affected zone (HAZ) regions of under matched (UM), equal matched (EM) and over matched (OM)joints has been studied. The base material used in this investigation is HSLA-80 steel of weldable grade. Shielded metal arc welding (SMAW) process has been used to fabricate the butt joints. Centre cracked tension (CCT) specimen has been used to evaluate the fatigue crack growth behaviour of the welded joints. Fatigue crack growth experiments have been conducted using servo hydraulic controlled fatigue testing machine at constant amplitude loading (R=0). A method has been proposed to predict the fatigue life of HSLA steel welds using fracture mechanics approach by incorporating influences of mismatch ratio (MMR) and notch location.

  7. Slow Crack Growth and Fatigue Life Prediction of Ceramic Components Subjected to Variable Load History

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jadaan, Osama

    2001-01-01

    Present capabilities of the NASA CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code include probabilistic life prediction of ceramic components subjected to fast fracture, slow crack growth (stress corrosion), and cyclic fatigue failure modes. Currently, this code has the capability to compute the time-dependent reliability of ceramic structures subjected to simple time-dependent loading. For example, in slow crack growth (SCG) type failure conditions CARES/Life can handle the cases of sustained and linearly increasing time-dependent loads, while for cyclic fatigue applications various types of repetitive constant amplitude loads can be accounted for. In real applications applied loads are rarely that simple, but rather vary with time in more complex ways such as, for example, engine start up, shut down, and dynamic and vibrational loads. In addition, when a given component is subjected to transient environmental and or thermal conditions, the material properties also vary with time. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate a methodology capable of predicting the time-dependent reliability of components subjected to transient thermomechanical loads that takes into account the change in material response with time. In this paper, the dominant delayed failure mechanism is assumed to be SCG. This capability has been added to the NASA CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code, which has also been modified to have the ability of interfacing with commercially available FEA codes executed for transient load histories. An example involving a ceramic exhaust valve subjected to combustion cycle loads is presented to demonstrate the viability of this methodology and the CARES/Life program.

  8. Profiling crop pollinators: life history traits predict habitat use and crop visitation by Mediterranean wild bees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisanty, Gideon; Mandelik, Yael

    2015-04-01

    Wild pollinators, bees in particular, may greatly contribute to crop pollination and provide a safety net against declines in commercial pollinators. However, the identity, life history traits, and environmental sensitivities of main crop pollinator species.have received limited attention. These are crucial for predicting pollination services of different communities and for developing management practices that enhance crop pollinators. We sampled wild bees in three crop systems (almond, confection sunflower, and seed watermelon) in a mosaic Israeli Mediterranean landscape. Bees were sampled in field/orchard edges and interiors, and in seminatural scrub surrounding the fields/orchards. We also analyzed land cover at 50-2500 m radii around fields/orchards. We used this data to distinguish crop from non-crop pollinators based on a set of life history traits (nesting, lecty, sociality, body size) linked to habitat preference and crop visitation. Bee abundance and species richness decreased from the surrounding seminatural habitat to the field/orchard interior, especially across the seminatural habitat-field edge ecotone. Thus, although rich bee communities were found near fields, only small fractions crossed the ecotone and visited crop flowers in substantial numbers. The bee assemblage in agricultural fields/orchards and on crop flowers was dominated by ground-nesting bees of the tribe Halictini, which tend to nest within fields. Bees' habitat preferences were determined mainly by nesting guild, whereas crop visitation was determined mainly by sociality. Lecty and body size also affected both measures. The percentage of surrounding seminatural habitat at 250-2500 m radii had a positive effect on wild bee diversity in field edges, for all bee guilds, while at 50-100 m radii, only aboveground nesters were positively affected. In sum, we found that crop and non-crop pollinators are distinguished by behavioral and morphological traits. Hence, analysis of life

  9. A Mathematical Model for Predicting the Life of PEM Fuel Cell Membranes Subjected to Hydration Cycling

    CERN Document Server

    Burlatsky, S F; O'Neill, J; Atrazhev, V V; Varyukhin, A N; Dmitriev, D V; Erikhman, N S

    2013-01-01

    Under typical PEM fuel cell operating conditions, part of membrane electrode assembly is subjected to humidity cycling due to variation of inlet gas RH and/or flow rate. Cyclic membrane hydration/dehydration would cause cyclic swelling/shrinking of the unconstrained membrane. In a constrained membrane, it causes cyclic stress resulting in mechanical failure in the area adjacent to the gas inlet. A mathematical modeling framework for prediction of the lifetime of a PEM FC membrane subjected to hydration cycling is developed in this paper. The model predicts membrane lifetime as a function of RH cycling amplitude and membrane mechanical properties. The modeling framework consists of three model components: a fuel cell RH distribution model, a hydration/dehydration induced stress model that predicts stress distribution in the membrane, and a damage accrual model that predicts membrane life-time. Short descriptions of the model components along with overall framework are presented in the paper. The model was used...

  10. Predicting US Infants' and Toddlers' TV/Video Viewing Rates: Mothers' Cognitions and Structural Life Circumstances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaala, Sarah E; Hornik, Robert C

    2014-04-01

    There has been rising international concern over media use with children under two. As little is known about the factors associated with more or less viewing among very young children, this study examines maternal factors predictive of TV/video viewing rates among American infants and toddlers. Guided by the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction, this survey study examines relationships between children's rates of TV/video viewing and their mothers' structural life circumstances (e.g., number of children in the home; mother's screen use), and cognitions (e.g., attitudes; norms). Results suggest that mothers' structural circumstances and cognitions respectively contribute independent explanatory power to the prediction of children's TV/video viewing. Influence of structural circumstances is partially mediated through cognitions. Mothers' attitudes as well as their own TV/video viewing behavior were particularly predictive of children's viewing. Implications of these findings for international efforts to understand and reduce infant/toddler TV/video exposure are discussed.

  11. Wealth and happiness across the world: material prosperity predicts life evaluation, whereas psychosocial prosperity predicts positive feeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diener, Ed; Ng, Weiting; Harter, James; Arora, Raksha

    2010-07-01

    The Gallup World Poll, the first representative sample of planet Earth, was used to explore the reasons why happiness is associated with higher income, including the meeting of basic needs, fulfillment of psychological needs, increasing satisfaction with one's standard of living, and public goods. Across the globe, the association of log income with subjective well-being was linear but convex with raw income, indicating the declining marginal effects of income on subjective well-being. Income was a moderately strong predictor of life evaluation but a much weaker predictor of positive and negative feelings. Possessing luxury conveniences and satisfaction with standard of living were also strong predictors of life evaluation. Although the meeting of basic and psychological needs mediated the effects of income on life evaluation to some degree, the strongest mediation was provided by standard of living and ownership of conveniences. In contrast, feelings were most associated with the fulfillment of psychological needs: learning, autonomy, using one's skills, respect, and the ability to count on others in an emergency. Thus, two separate types of prosperity-economic and social psychological-best predict different types of well-being.

  12. Colored Noise Prediction Based on Neural Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Fei; Zhang Xiaohui

    2003-01-01

    A method for predicting colored noise by introducing prediction of nonhnear time series is presented By adopting three kinds of neural networks prediction models, the colored noise prediction is studied through changing the filter bandwidth for stochastic noise and the sampling rate for colored noise The results show that colored noise can be predicted The prediction error decreases with the increasing of the sampling rate or the narrowing of the filter bandwidth. If the parameters are selected properly, the prediction precision can meet the requirement of engineering implementation. The results offer a new reference way for increasing the ability for detecting weak signal in signal processing system

  13. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced vehicular heat engines: Volume 1. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khandelwal, P.K.; Provenzano, N.J.; Schneider, W.E. [Allison Engine Co., Indianapolis, IN (United States)

    1996-02-01

    One of the major challenges involved in the use of ceramic materials is ensuring adequate strength and durability. This activity has developed methodology which can be used during the design phase to predict the structural behavior of ceramic components. The effort involved the characterization of injection molded and hot isostatic pressed (HIPed) PY-6 silicon nitride, the development of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technology, and the development of analytical life prediction methodology. Four failure modes are addressed: fast fracture, slow crack growth, creep, and oxidation. The techniques deal with failures initiating at the surface as well as internal to the component. The life prediction methodology for fast fracture and slow crack growth have been verified using a variety of confirmatory tests. The verification tests were conducted at room and elevated temperatures up to a maximum of 1371 {degrees}C. The tests involved (1) flat circular disks subjected to bending stresses and (2) high speed rotating spin disks. Reasonable correlation was achieved for a variety of test conditions and failure mechanisms. The predictions associated with surface failures proved to be optimistic, requiring re-evaluation of the components` initial fast fracture strengths. Correlation was achieved for the spin disks which failed in fast fracture from internal flaws. Time dependent elevated temperature slow crack growth spin disk failures were also successfully predicted.

  14. FATIGUE LIFE PREDICTION OF COMMERCIALLY PURE TITANIUM AFTER NITROGEN ION IMPLANTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurdin Ali

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of fatigue life has become an interesting issue in biomaterial engineering and design for reliability and quality purposes, particularly for biometallic material with modified surfaces. Commercially pure titanium (Cp-Ti implanted with nitrogen ions is a potential metallic biomaterial of the future. The effect of nitrogen ion implantation on fatigue behavior of Cp-Ti was investigated by means of axial loading conditions. The as-received and nitrogen-ion implanted specimens with the energy of 100 keV and dose of 2 × 1017 ions cm-2, were used to determine the fatigue properties and to predict the life cycle of the specimens. The effect of nitrogen ion implantation indicated revealed improved the tensile strength due to the formation of nitride phases, TiN and Ti2N. The fatigue strength of Cp-Ti and Nii-Ti was 250 and 260 MPa, respectively. The analytical results show good agreement with experimental results.

  15. Anisotropic Elastoplastic Damage Mechanics Method to Predict Fatigue Life of the Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hualiang Wan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available New damage mechanics method is proposed to predict the low-cycle fatigue life of metallic structures under multiaxial loading. The microstructure mechanical model is proposed to simulate anisotropic elastoplastic damage evolution. As the micromodel depends on few material parameters, the present method is very concise and suitable for engineering application. The material parameters in damage evolution equation are determined by fatigue experimental data of standard specimens. By employing further development on the ANSYS platform, the anisotropic elastoplastic damage mechanics-finite element method is developed. The fatigue crack propagation life of satellite structure is predicted using the present method and the computational results comply with the experimental data very well.

  16. Service Life Prediction of Wood Claddings by in-situ Measurement of Wood Moisture Content

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engelund, Emil Tang; Lindegaard, Berit; Morsing, Niels

    2009-01-01

    The Danish Technological Institute is in co-operation with industry partners running a project aiming at predicting the service life of different wood protecting systems. The project focuses on examining the moisture reducing effect of different protecting systems for timber claddings...... and the ability of these to maintain the appearance of the surfaces, when the wood is used in service class 3 (EN 335-1 1992). A façade construction is exposed to weathering at the field test area of the Danish Technological Institute (near Copenhagen). In specific locations of the construction measurements...... of wood moisture are done by in-situ resistance moisture meters (Lindegaard and Morsing 2006). The aim is that the test should form the basis of evaluation of the maintenance requirements and the prediction of service life of the surface treatment and the wood/construction. At the moment 60 test racks...

  17. An equivalent strain/Coffin-Manson approach to multiaxial fatigue and life prediction in superelastic Nitinol medical devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runciman, Amanda; Xu, David; Pelton, Alan R; Ritchie, Robert O

    2011-08-01

    Medical devices, particularly endovascular stents, manufactured from superelastic Nitinol, a near-equiatomic alloy of Ni and Ti, are subjected to complex mixed-mode loading conditions in vivo, including axial tension and compression, radial compression, pulsatile, bending and torsion. Fatigue lifetime prediction methodologies for Nitinol, however, are invariably based on uniaxial loading and thus fall short of accurately predicting the safe lifetime of stents under the complex multiaxial loading conditions experienced physiologically. While there is a considerable body of research documented on the cyclic fatigue of Nitinol in uniaxial tension or bending, there remains an almost total lack of comprehensive fatigue lifetime data for other loading conditions, such as torsion and tension/torsion. In this work, thin-walled Nitinol tubes were cycled in torsion at various mean and alternating strains to investigate the fatigue life behavior of Nitinol and results compared to equivalent fatigue data collected under uniaxial tensile/bending loads. Using these strain-life results for various loading modes and an equivalent referential (Lagrangian) strain approach, a strategy for normalizing these data is presented. Based on this strategy, a fatigue lifetime prediction model for the multiaxial loading of Nitinol is presented utilizing a modified Coffin-Manson approach where the number of cycles to failure is related to the equivalent alternating transformation strain.

  18. Anisotropic Elastoplastic Damage Mechanics Method to Predict Fatigue Life of the Structure

    OpenAIRE

    Hualiang Wan; Qizhi Wang; Zheng Zhang

    2016-01-01

    New damage mechanics method is proposed to predict the low-cycle fatigue life of metallic structures under multiaxial loading. The microstructure mechanical model is proposed to simulate anisotropic elastoplastic damage evolution. As the micromodel depends on few material parameters, the present method is very concise and suitable for engineering application. The material parameters in damage evolution equation are determined by fatigue experimental data of standard specimens. By employing fu...

  19. Predicting the Reliability of Ceramics Under Transient Loads and Temperatures With CARES/Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemeth, Noel N.; Jadaan, Osama M.; Palfi, Tamas; Baker, Eric H.

    2003-01-01

    A methodology is shown for predicting the time-dependent reliability of ceramic components against catastrophic rupture when subjected to transient thermomechanical loads (including cyclic loads). The methodology takes into account the changes in material response that can occur with temperature or time (i.e., changing fatigue and Weibull parameters with temperature or time). This capability has been added to the NASA CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code. The code has been modified to have the ability to interface with commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) codes executed for transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

  20. Predicting Scientific Success Based on Coauthorship Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Sarigöl, Emre; Scholtes, Ingo; Garas, Antonios; Schweitzer, Frank

    2014-01-01

    We address the question to what extent the success of scientific articles is due to social influence. Analyzing a data set of over 100000 publications from the field of Computer Science, we study how centrality in the coauthorship network differs between authors who have highly cited papers and those who do not. We further show that a machine learning classifier, based only on coauthorship network centrality measures at time of publication, is able to predict with high precision whether an article will be highly cited five years after publication. By this we provide quantitative insight into the social dimension of scientific publishing - challenging the perception of citations as an objective, socially unbiased measure of scientific success.

  1. How do Major, Violent and Nonviolent Opposition Campaigns, Impact Predicted Life Expectancy at birth?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith Stoddard

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This study compared the effects of major violent and nonviolent opposition campaigns for regime change, on predicted life expectancy at birth. The study measured life expectancy five and ten years after the campaign ended, so that deaths which occurred during the campaign would not be included in the metric, and thus enabling the study of changes made in the state on the social determinants affecting longevity, after the campaign was over. Life expectancy is one of the best reported World Development Indicators and is considered to be a good indication of the overall health and general living conditions of the state and therefore is an ideal indicator to reflect the changes made in the state following a major campaign. The results of this analysis showed that states have a hard time recovering from a major opposition campaign and initially drop behind the growth trend in the world average for predicted life expectancy at birth. But, the type of campaign that was waged and whether it was successful, greatly affects the state’s ability to recover. Encouragingly by a decade after the campaign ends, states that experienced a nonviolent campaign that was successful had caught up to the world average and inched ahead of it. This shows that on this important development indicator, new governments that were ushered into power by nonviolent social movements, had made positive changes in the state that enabled it to surpass world averages.

  2. Multi-axial Fatigue Life Prediction Model Based on Maximum Shear Strain Amplitude and Modified SWT Parameter%基于最大切应变幅和修正SWT参数的多轴疲劳寿命预测模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴志荣; 胡绪腾; 宋迎东

    2013-01-01

    工程中的大多构件承受着复杂的载荷形式,将单轴疲劳模型应用到多轴载荷情况已不能满足工程精度的要求,多轴载荷下的疲劳寿命计算日益引起人们的重视.基于临界平面的思想,结合Fatemi-Socie(FS)模型和Smith-Watson-Topper(SWT)参数各自的优点,提出一种新的多轴疲劳寿命预测模型.该模型以最大切应变幅与最大切应变幅平面上修正SWT参数的和作为多轴疲劳损伤控制参量,此参量可以同时考虑非比例附加循环硬化和平均应力对材料多轴疲劳寿命的影响,能同时适用于比例和非比例加载下的多轴疲劳问题.采用纯钛Ti、BT9钛合金、304不锈钢、S45C钢和1045HR钢5种材料多轴疲劳试验数据对提出的模型进行评估和验证,对几种材料比例和非比例加载下的多轴疲劳寿命预测结果大都分布在试验结果的2倍分散带之内,结果表明提出的多轴疲劳寿命模型具有较高的预测精度.%The most components of engineering structures are usually subjected to a complex loading. It is unable to meet the requirements of engineering precision if a uniaxial fatigue model is used under multi-axial loading. The calculation of fatigue life prediction under multiaxial loading causes people's attention more and more. A new multiaxial fatigue life prediction model is proposed based on the critical plane criteria. The model integrates the respective advantages of Fatemi-Socie(FS) model and Smith-Watson-Topper(SWT) parameter. The damage parameter in this model takes the sum of the maximum shear strain amplitude and the modified SWT parameter on the maximum shear strain amplitude plain. It can consider the effects of additional cyclic hardening due to non-proportional loading and mean stress on the multi-axial fatigue life of material. The proposed model can be applied to proportional and non-proportional loading. The model is evaluated by the multiaxial fatigue test data of pure titanium, BT9

  3. Cultivating Life Skills at a Project-Based Charter School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurdinger, Scott; Enloe, Walter

    2011-01-01

    Surveys that focused on academic and life skill development were collected from alumni who attended Avalon Charter School in St Paul, Minnesota. Avalon is a small public charter school that uses project-based learning as their primary teaching method. Forty-two alumni responded to the online survey. Students ranked life skills such as creativity,…

  4. An Adaptive Recurrent Neural Network for Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Lithium-ion Batteries

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics is an emerging science of predicting the health condition of a system (or its components) based upon current and previous system states. A reliable...

  5. 四参数疲劳定寿方法%Four-parameter life prediction method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    宁向荣; 陈伟; 蔡显新; 廖学军; 米栋

    2012-01-01

    对直升机传动系统采用的一种疲劳定寿方法——四参数法进行了研究:首先介绍了四参数应力一循环(S—N)曲线,然后详细介绍了通过材料平均S—N曲线获取构件安全S—N曲线的步骤以及直升机传动系统四参数疲劳定寿的程序和方法,研究了定寿流程中的各个技术细节.同时介绍了传动系统机匣疲劳试验中的多路协调加载技术以及某传动系统尾减机匣(TGB)的全尺寸疲劳试验情况.最后采用四参数疲劳定寿方法,根据某传动系统尾减机匣全尺寸疲劳试验结果和飞行实测载荷谱,对尾减机匣进行了安全寿命评估.该实例分析表明:四参数疲劳定寿方法为一种有效、可靠的寿命评估方法,具有推广价值.%Four-parameter life prediction method for helicopter transmission system was studied. Four-parameter stress-number of cycles (S-N) curve was presented first, and then, the derivation of helicopter transmission component safe S-N curve from material mean S-N curve and the scheme for the component life prediction were introduced in detail. Multi-load coordinating loading technology in fatigue test and a tail gear box (TGB) casing full-scale fatigue test were introduced at the same time. Finally, according to the full-scale fatigue test result and flight load survey data, applying the four-parameter life prediction method, the TGB casing life prediction was performed, which indicates that four-parameter life prediction method is a reliable and effective method and is worth to be generalized.

  6. Prediction Model for the Life of Nickel-cadmium Batteries in Geosynchronous Orbit Satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engleman, J. H.; Zirkes-Falco, M. B.; Bogner, R. S.; Pickett, D. F., Jr.

    1984-01-01

    A mathematical model is described which predicts the service life of nickel-cadmium batteries designed for geosynchronous orbit satellites. Regression analysis technique is used to analyze orbital data on second generation trickle charged batteries. The model gives average cell voltage as a function of design parameters, operating parameters and time. The voltage model has the properties of providing a good fit to the data, good predictive capability, and agreement with known battery performance characteristics. Average cell voltage can be predicted to within 0.02 volts for up to 8 years. This modeling shows that these batteries will operate reliably for 10 years. Third-generation batteries are expected to operate even longer.

  7. Nomogram for Predicting Time to Death After Withdrawal of Life-Sustaining Treatment in Patients With Devastating Neurological Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, X; Xu, G; Liang, W; Liu, B; Xu, Y; Luan, Z; Lu, Y; Ko, D S C; Manyalich, M; Schroder, P M; Guo, Z

    2015-08-01

    Reliable prediction of time of death after withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment in patients with devastating neurological injury is crucial to successful donation after cardiac death. Herein, we conducted a study of 419 neurocritical patients who underwent life support withdrawal at four neurosurgical centers in China. Based on a retrospective cohort, we used multivariate Cox regression analysis to identify prognostic factors for patient death, which were then integrated into a nomogram. The model was calibrated and validated using data from an external retrospective cohort and a prospective cohort. We identified 10 variables that were incorporated into a nomogram. The C-indexes for predicting the 60-min death probability in the training, external validation and prospective validation cohorts were 0.96 (0.93-0.98), 0.94 (0.91-0.97), and 0.99 (0.97-1.00), respectively. The calibration plots after WLST showed an optimal agreement between the prediction of time to death by the nomogram and the actual observation for all cohorts. Then we identified 22, 26 and 37 as cut-points for risk stratification into four groups. Kaplan-Meier curves indicated distinct prognoses between patients in the different risk groups (p death donors in neurocritical patients in a Chinese population.

  8. Leaf and life history traits predict plant growth in a green roof ecosystem.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy Lundholm

    Full Text Available Green roof ecosystems are constructed to provide services such as stormwater retention and urban temperature reductions. Green roofs with shallow growing media represent stressful conditions for plant survival, thus plants that survive and grow are important for maximizing economic and ecological benefits. While field trials are essential for selecting appropriate green roof plants, we wanted to determine whether plant leaf traits could predict changes in abundance (growth to provide a more general framework for plant selection. We quantified leaf traits and derived life-history traits (Grime's C-S-R strategies for 13 species used in a four-year green roof experiment involving five plant life forms. Changes in canopy density in monocultures and mixtures containing one to five life forms were determined and related to plant traits using multiple regression. We expected traits related to stress-tolerance would characterize the species that best grew in this relatively harsh setting. While all species survived to the end of the experiment, canopy species diversity in mixture treatments was usually much lower than originally planted. Most species grew slower in mixture compared to monoculture, suggesting that interspecific competition reduced canopy diversity. Species dominant in mixture treatments tended to be fast-growing ruderals and included both native and non-native species. Specific leaf area was a consistently strong predictor of final biomass and the change in abundance in both monoculture and mixture treatments. Some species in contrasting life-form groups showed compensatory dynamics, suggesting that life-form mixtures can maximize resilience of cover and biomass in the face of environmental fluctuations. This study confirms that plant traits can be used to predict growth performance in green roof ecosystems. While rapid canopy growth is desirable for green roofs, maintenance of species diversity may require engineering of conditions that

  9. Leaf and life history traits predict plant growth in a green roof ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundholm, Jeremy; Heim, Amy; Tran, Stephanie; Smith, Tyler

    2014-01-01

    Green roof ecosystems are constructed to provide services such as stormwater retention and urban temperature reductions. Green roofs with shallow growing media represent stressful conditions for plant survival, thus plants that survive and grow are important for maximizing economic and ecological benefits. While field trials are essential for selecting appropriate green roof plants, we wanted to determine whether plant leaf traits could predict changes in abundance (growth) to provide a more general framework for plant selection. We quantified leaf traits and derived life-history traits (Grime's C-S-R strategies) for 13 species used in a four-year green roof experiment involving five plant life forms. Changes in canopy density in monocultures and mixtures containing one to five life forms were determined and related to plant traits using multiple regression. We expected traits related to stress-tolerance would characterize the species that best grew in this relatively harsh setting. While all species survived to the end of the experiment, canopy species diversity in mixture treatments was usually much lower than originally planted. Most species grew slower in mixture compared to monoculture, suggesting that interspecific competition reduced canopy diversity. Species dominant in mixture treatments tended to be fast-growing ruderals and included both native and non-native species. Specific leaf area was a consistently strong predictor of final biomass and the change in abundance in both monoculture and mixture treatments. Some species in contrasting life-form groups showed compensatory dynamics, suggesting that life-form mixtures can maximize resilience of cover and biomass in the face of environmental fluctuations. This study confirms that plant traits can be used to predict growth performance in green roof ecosystems. While rapid canopy growth is desirable for green roofs, maintenance of species diversity may require engineering of conditions that favor less

  10. Spatio-temporal dynamics of growth and survival of Lesser Sandeel early life-stages in the North Sea: Predictions from a coupled individual-based and hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gurkan, Zeren; Christensen, Asbjørn; Maar, Marie

    2013-01-01

    of larval and early juvenile Lesser Sandeel (Ammodytes marinus) in the North Sea to local feeding conditions by an adapted version of a generic bioenergetic individual-based model for larval fish describing growth and survival. Prey encounter and physiological processes are described explicitly in the model...... is validated by Continuous Plankton Recorder survey time series data. Spatio-temporal dynamics of the sandeel cohorts are simulated by the integrated model framework for the period 2004-2006 and five major area divisions of suitable sandeel habitats in the North Sea. This allows obtaining insight...... into the influence of temperature variation and zooplankton availability on the growth and survival. To determine areas promising for recruitment, area divisions are compared and optimal time of hatching for higher survival to recruitment due to match-mismatch with prey is determined by comparing different hatching...

  11. Cyclic softening as a parameter for prediction of remnant creep rupture life of a Indian reduced activation ferritic–martensitic (IN-RAFM) steel subjected to fatigue exposures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sarkar, Aritra, E-mail: aritra@igcar.gov.in [Metallurgy and Materials Group, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam 603102, Tamil Nadu (India); Vijayanand, V.D.; Shankar, Vani; Parameswaran, P.; Sandhya, R.; Laha, K.; Mathew, M.D.; Jayakumar, T. [Metallurgy and Materials Group, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam 603102, Tamil Nadu (India); Rajendrakumar, E. [Institute for Plasma Research, Bhat, Gandhinagar, Gujarat (India)

    2014-12-15

    Sequential fatigue-creep tests were conducted on Indian reduced activation ferritic–martensitic steel at 823 K leading to sharp decrease in residual creep life with increase in prior fatigue exposures. Extensive recovery of martensitic-lath structure taking place during fatigue deformation, manifested as cyclic softening in the cyclic stress response, shortens the residual creep life. Based on the experimental results, cyclic softening occurring during fatigue stage can be correlated with residual creep life, evolving in an empirical model which predicts residual creep life as a function of cyclic softening. Predicted creep lives for specimens pre-cycled at various strain amplitudes are explained on the basis of mechanism of cyclic softening.

  12. Fatigue life prediction method for contact wire using maximum local stress

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Yong Seok; Haochuang, Li; Seok, Chang Sung; Koo, Jae Mean [Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Ki Won; Kwon, Sam Young; Cho, Yong Hyeon [Korea Railroad Research Institute, Uiwang (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-01-15

    Railway contact wires supplying electricity to trains are exposed to repeated mechanical strain and stress caused by their own weight and discontinuous contact with a pantograph during train operation. Since the speed of railway transportation has increased continuously, railway industries have recently reported a number of contact wire failures caused by mechanical fatigue fractures instead of normal wear, which has been a more common failure mechanism. To secure the safety and durability of contact wires in environments with increased train speeds, a bending fatigue test on contact wire has been performed. The test equipment is too complicated to evaluate the fatigue characteristics of contact wire. Thus, the axial tension fatigue test was performed for a standard specimen, and the bending fatigue life for the contact wire structure was then predicted using the maximum local stress occurring at the top of the contact wire. Lastly, the tested bending fatigue life of the structure was compared with the fatigue life predicted by the axial tension fatigue test for verification.

  13. Fatigue Life Prediction of Multi Leaf Spring used in the Suspension System of Light Commercial Vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.K.Aher

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The Leaf spring is widely used in automobiles and one of the components of suspension system. It needs to have high fatigue life. As a general rule, the leaf spring is regarded as a safety component as failure could lead to severe accidents. The purpose of this paper is to predict the fatigue life of steel leaf spring along with analytical stress and deflection calculations. This present work describes static and fatigue analysis of a steel leaf spring of a light commercial vehicle (LCV. The dimensions of the leaf spring of a LCV are taken and are verified by design calculations. The non-linear static analysis of 2D model of the leaf spring is performed using NASTRAN solver and compared with analytical results. The preprocessing of the model is done by using HYPERMESH software. The stiffness of the leaf spring is studied by plotting load versus deflection curve for various load applications. The simulation results are compared with analytical results. The fatigue life of the leaf spring is predicted using MSC Fatigue software.

  14. Psychological approach to successful ageing predicts future quality of life in older adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iliffe Steve

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Public policies aim to promote well-being, and ultimately the quality of later life. Positive perspectives of ageing are underpinned by a range of appraoches to successful ageing. This study aimed to investigate whether baseline biological, psychological and social aproaches to successful ageing predicted future QoL. Methods Postal follow-up in 2007/8 of a national random sample of 999 people aged 65 and over in 1999/2000. Of 496 valid addresses of survivors at follow-up, the follow-up response rate was 58% (287. Measures of the different concepts of successful ageing were constructed using baseline indicators. They were assessed for their ability to independently predict quality of life at follow-up. Results Few respondents achieved all good scores within each of the approaches to successful ageing. Each approach was associated with follow-up QoL when their scores were analysed continuously. The biomedical (health approach failed to achieve significance when the traditional dichotomous cut-off point for successfully aged (full health, or not (less than full health, was used. In multiple regression analyses of the relative predictive ability of each approach, only the psychological approach (perceived self-efficacy and optimism retained significance. Conclusion Only the psychological approach to successful ageing independently predicted QoL at follow-up. Successful ageing is not only about the maintenance of health, but about maximising one's psychological resources, namely self-efficacy and resilience. Increasing use of preventive care, better medical management of morbidity, and changing lifestyles in older people may have beneficial effects on health and longevity, but may not improve their QoL. Adding years to life and life to years may require two distinct and different approaches, one physical and the other psychological. Follow-up health status, number of supporters and social activities, and self-rated active ageing

  15. Life prediction of prediction beams of high- pile wharf in service life%在役高桩码头横梁剩余寿命预测

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孟静; 李鑫

    2014-01-01

    This paper starts with the impact resistance of high-pile wharf structure’s changes,including chloride,carbona-tion of concrete, concrete strength and other factors which changed over time, and considers the uncertainty of the material itself. After a comprehensive analysis, the model of beam resistance changes over time was established and taken the cross member reinforced concrete corrosion time as a variable. It calculated the reliability index of high-pile wharf beams,and made a solution combined with the reliability index required by codes to obtain the service life. The results show that meet engineering practice. The research results can provide a scientific basis for life prediction of high-pile wharf structure.%从影响高桩码头结构抗力变化的氯离子、混凝土碳化、混凝土强度等随时间变化的主要因素入手,考虑了材料本身的不确定性。综合分析后,将横梁构件钢筋混凝土锈蚀时间作为变量,建立了横梁抗力随时间变化的模型,计算了该港区的码头横梁可靠指标,并和规范要求的可靠指标联合求解,得出了其使用年限。结果表明符合该工程实际。研究结果可为高桩码头结构寿命预测提供科学的依据。

  16. Comparisons of prediction models of quality of life after laparoscopic cholecystectomy: a longitudinal prospective study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hon-Yi Shi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Few studies of laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC outcome have used longitudinal data for more than two years. Moreover, no studies have considered group differences in factors other than outcome such as age and nonsurgical treatment. Additionally, almost all published articles agree that the essential issue of the internal validity (reproducibility of the artificial neural network (ANN, support vector machine (SVM, Gaussian process regression (GPR and multiple linear regression (MLR models has not been adequately addressed. This study proposed to validate the use of these models for predicting quality of life (QOL after LC and to compare the predictive capability of ANNs with that of SVM, GPR and MLR. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 400 LC patients completed the SF-36 and the Gastrointestinal Quality of Life Index at baseline and at 2 years postoperatively. The criteria for evaluating the accuracy of the system models were mean square error (MSE and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE. A global sensitivity analysis was also performed to assess the relative significance of input parameters in the system model and to rank the variables in order of importance. Compared to SVM, GPR and MLR models, the ANN model generally had smaller MSE and MAPE values in the training data set and test data set. Most ANN models had MAPE values ranging from 4.20% to 8.60%, and most had high prediction accuracy. The global sensitivity analysis also showed that preoperative functional status was the best parameter for predicting QOL after LC. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Compared with SVM, GPR and MLR models, the ANN model in this study was more accurate in predicting patient-reported QOL and had higher overall performance indices. Further studies of this model may consider the effect of a more detailed database that includes complications and clinical examination findings as well as more detailed outcome data.

  17. Ontology Based Feature Driven Development Life Cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farheen Siddiqui

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The upcoming technology support for semantic web promises fresh directions for Software Engineering community. Also semantic web has its roots in knowledge engineering that provoke software engineers to look for application of ontology applications throughout the Software Engineering lifecycle. The internal components of a semantic web are "light weight", and may be of less quality standards than the externally visible modules. In fact the internal components are generated from external (ontological component. That's the reason agile development approaches such as feature driven development are suitable for applications internal component development. As yet there is no particular procedure that describes the role of ontology in FDD processes. Therefore we propose an ontology based feature driven development for semantic web application that can be used form application model development to feature design and implementation. Features are precisely defined in the OWL-based domain model. Transition from OWL based domain model to feature list is directly defined in transformation rules. On the other hand the ontology based overall model can be easily validated through automated tools. Advantages of ontology-based feature Driven development are also discussed.

  18. Neuroticism and Extraversion in Youth Predict Mental Wellbeing and Life Satisfaction 40 Years Later.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, Catharine R; Booth, Tom; Mõttus, René; Kuh, Diana; Deary, Ian J

    2013-12-01

    Neuroticism and Extraversion are linked with current wellbeing, but it is unclear whether these traits in youth predict wellbeing decades later. We applied structural equation modelling to data from 4583 people from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development. We examined the effects of Neuroticism and Extraversion at ages 16 and 26 years on mental wellbeing and life satisfaction at age 60-64 and explored the mediating roles of psychological and physical health. Extraversion had direct, positive effects on both measures of wellbeing. The impact of Neuroticism on both wellbeing and life satisfaction was largely indirect through susceptibility to psychological distress and physical health problems. Personality dispositions in youth have enduring influence on wellbeing assessed about forty years later.

  19. Mathematical Model of Load Pass and Prediction of Fatigue Life on Bolt Threads with Reduced Lead

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asayama, Yukiteru

    A mathematical model is proposed in order to elucidate the mechanism that the fatigue strength of external threads increases by reducing the lead on a thread system such as a bolt and nut. The model is constructed from the concept that a local strain proportional to the reducing degree of the lead, although the local strain is at first produced in the bolt thread farthest from the bearing surface of the nut, is induced in each thread root with an increase of applied load. The fatigue life predicted from the mathematical model shows good agreement with the experimental fatigue life of cadmium-plated external threads with the reduced lead on the material having strength as high as 1270MPa. The model can provide useful suggestions for the design of fasteners for aerospace, which are required to satisfy severe requirements of fatigue strengths and dimensions.

  20. Predicting the natural mortality of marine fish from life history characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gislason, Henrik

    the information necessary to estimate the scaling of natural mortality with size and asymptotic size. The estimated scaling is compared with output from multispecies fish stock models, with the empirical scaling of the maximum number of recruits per unit of spawning stock biomass with body size......For fish much of the life history is determined by body size. Body size and asymptotic size significantly influences important life history processes such as growth, maturity, egg production, and natural mortality. Futhermore, for a population to persist, offspring must be able to replace......, and with estimates from a comprehensive compilation of empirical data on the natural mortality of marine fishes. The comparisons are all in aggreement with the predictions from the model. We conclude that natural mortality scales with body length raised to a power around -1.6, with the asymptotic length...

  1. Computational Methodology for the Prediction of Functional Requirement Variations Across the Product Life-Cycle

    CERN Document Server

    Mandil, Guillaume; Rivière, Alain

    2009-01-01

    The great majority of engineered products are subject to thermo-mechanical loads which vary with the product environment during the various phases of its life-cycle (machining, assembly, intended service use...). Those load variations may result in different values of the parts nominal dimensions, which in turn generate corresponding variation of the effective clearance (functional requirement) in the assembly. Usually, and according to the contractual drawings, the parts are measured after the machining stage, whereas the interesting measurement values are the ones taken in service for they allow the prediction of clearance value under operating conditions. Unfortunately, measurement in operating conditions may not be practical to obtain. Hence, the main purpose of this research is to create, through computations and simulations, links between the values of the loads, dimensions and functional requirements during the successive phases of the life cycle of some given product. [...

  2. Community Detection Based on Link Prediction Methods

    CERN Document Server

    Cheng, Hui-Min

    2016-01-01

    Community detection and link prediction are both of great significance in network analysis, which provide very valuable insights into topological structures of the network from diffrent perspectives. In this paper, we propose a novel community detection algorithm with inclusion of link prediction, motivated by the question whether link prediction can be devoted to improve the accuracy of community partition. For link prediction, we propose two novel indices to compute the similarity between each pair of nodes, one of which aims to add missing links, and the other tries to remove spurious edges. Extensive experiments are conducted on benchmark data sets, and the results of our proposed algorithm are compared with two classes of baselines. In conclusion, our proposed algorithm is competitive, revealing that link prediction does improve the precision of community detection.

  3. Computing environmental life of electronic products based on failure physics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yongqiang Zhang; Zongchang Xu; Chunyang Hu

    2016-01-01

    In some situations, the accelerated life test on en-vironmental stress for electronic products is not easily imple-mented due to various restrictions, and thus engineers are lacking of data of the product life test. Concerning this prob-lem, environmental life of the printed circuit board (PCB) board is calculated by way of physics of failure. Influences of thermal cycle and vibration on PCB and its components are studied. Based on the analysis of force and stress between components and the PCB board in thermal cycle events and vibration events, four life computing models of pins and sol-dered dots are established. The miler damage ratio is used to calculate the accumulated damage of a pin or a soldered dot, and then the environment life of the PCB board can be de-termined by the first failed one. Finaly, an example is used to ilustrate the models and their calculations.

  4. Neural Network Based Popularity Prediction For IPTV System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Li

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Internet protocol television (IPTV, being an emerging Internet application, plays an important and indispensable role in our daily life. In order to maximize user experience and on the same time to minimize service cost, we must take into pay attention to how to reduce the storage and transport costs. A lot of previous work has been done before to do this. There is a challenging problem in this: how to predict the popularities of videos as accurate as possible. To solve the problem, this paper presents a Neural Network model for the popularity prediction of the programs in the IPTV system. And we use the actual historical logs to validate our method. The historical logs are divided to two parts, one is used to train the neural network by extract input/output vectors, and the other part is used to verify the model. The experimental results from our validation show the Neural Network based method can gain better accuracy than the comparative method.

  5. Neural Fuzzy Inference System-Based Weather Prediction Model and Its Precipitation Predicting Experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Lu

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We propose a weather prediction model in this article based on neural network and fuzzy inference system (NFIS-WPM, and then apply it to predict daily fuzzy precipitation given meteorological premises for testing. The model consists of two parts: the first part is the “fuzzy rule-based neural network”, which simulates sequential relations among fuzzy sets using artificial neural network; and the second part is the “neural fuzzy inference system”, which is based on the first part, but could learn new fuzzy rules from the previous ones according to the algorithm we proposed. NFIS-WPM (High Pro and NFIS-WPM (Ave are improved versions of this model. It is well known that the need for accurate weather prediction is apparent when considering the benefits. However, the excessive pursuit of accuracy in weather prediction makes some of the “accurate” prediction results meaningless and the numerical prediction model is often complex and time-consuming. By adapting this novel model to a precipitation prediction problem, we make the predicted outcomes of precipitation more accurate and the prediction methods simpler than by using the complex numerical forecasting model that would occupy large computation resources, be time-consuming and which has a low predictive accuracy rate. Accordingly, we achieve more accurate predictive precipitation results than by using traditional artificial neural networks that have low predictive accuracy.

  6. Deterministic and Probabilistic Creep and Creep Rupture Enhancement to CARES/Creep: Multiaxial Creep Life Prediction of Ceramic Structures Using Continuum Damage Mechanics and the Finite Element Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jadaan, Osama M.; Powers, Lynn M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    1998-01-01

    High temperature and long duration applications of monolithic ceramics can place their failure mode in the creep rupture regime. A previous model advanced by the authors described a methodology by which the creep rupture life of a loaded component can be predicted. That model was based on the life fraction damage accumulation rule in association with the modified Monkman-Grant creep ripture criterion However, that model did not take into account the deteriorating state of the material due to creep damage (e.g., cavitation) as time elapsed. In addition, the material creep parameters used in that life prediction methodology, were based on uniaxial creep curves displaying primary and secondary creep behavior, with no tertiary regime. The objective of this paper is to present a creep life prediction methodology based on a modified form of the Kachanov-Rabotnov continuum damage mechanics (CDM) theory. In this theory, the uniaxial creep rate is described in terms of stress, temperature, time, and the current state of material damage. This scalar damage state parameter is basically an abstract measure of the current state of material damage due to creep deformation. The damage rate is assumed to vary with stress, temperature, time, and the current state of damage itself. Multiaxial creep and creep rupture formulations of the CDM approach are presented in this paper. Parameter estimation methodologies based on nonlinear regression analysis are also described for both, isothermal constant stress states and anisothermal variable stress conditions This creep life prediction methodology was preliminarily added to the integrated design code CARES/Creep (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Creep), which is a postprocessor program to commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) packages. Two examples, showing comparisons between experimental and predicted creep lives of ceramic specimens, are used to demonstrate the viability of this methodology and

  7. From First Life to Second Life: Evaluating Task-Based Language Learning in a New Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jee, Min Jung

    2014-01-01

    With its growing number of users, Second Life as one of the avatar-based 3D virtual worlds has received attention from educators and researchers in various fields to explore its pedagogical benefits. Given the increasing implementation of technologies broadly in much instruction, this study investigated how ESL students negotiated meanings in…

  8. Lubrication Oil Condition Monitoring and Remaining Useful Life Prediction With Particle Filtering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongzhi Qu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reduce the costs of wind energy, it is necessary to improve the wind turbine availability and reduce the operational and maintenance costs. The reliability and availability of a functioning wind turbine depend largely on the protective properties of the lubrication oil for its drive train subassemblies such as gearbox and means for lubrication oil condition monitoring and degradation detection. The wind industry currently uses lubrication oil analysis for detecting gearbox and bearing wear but cannot detect the functional failures of the lubrication oils. The main purpose of lubrication oil condition monitoring and degradation detection is to determine whether the oils have deteriorated to such a degree that they no longer fulfill their functions. This paper describes a research on developing online lubrication oil health condition monitoring and remaining useful life prediction with particle filtering technique using commercially available online sensors. The paper first presents a survey on current state-of-the-art online lubrication oil condition monitoring solutions and their characteristics along with the classification and evaluation of each technique. It is then followed by an investigation on wind turbine gearbox lubrication oil health condition monitoring and degradation detection using online viscosity and dielectric constant sensors. In particular, the lubricant performance evaluation and remaining useful life prediction of degraded lubrication oil with viscosity and dielectric constant data using particle filtering are presented. A simulation case study is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed technique.

  9. Baseline Quality of Life Factors Predict Long Term Survival after Elective Resection for Colorectal Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abhiram Sharma

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Studies have shown an association between baseline quality of life (Qol and survival in advanced cancers. The aim of this study was to investigate their predictive value in long term survival after elective colorectal cancer resection. Methods. A consecutive series of patients undergoing elective colorectal cancer surgery for nonmetastatic disease were recruited in 2003/04. Patients completed standardized quality of life questionnaires (HADS, FACTC, MRS, and PANAS prior to and 6 weeks after surgery. Univariate (log-rank test and multivariate analyses (Cox proportional hazards were performed to predict long term survival. Results. Ninety-seven patients met the inclusion criteria. Sixty-five (67% were male and the median age of the group was 70 years. Forty-six (47.5% patients had died and the mean survival was 1,741 days (median 2159, range 9–2923 days. Preoperative mood rating scale and functional assessment of cancer therapy-colorectal FACT C emotional well-being and postoperative FACT C additional concerns were independent predictors of long term survival. Conclusion. Incorporating psychosocial measures in preoperative assessment of cancer patients could help to identify patients who require assessment with a view to implementing psychosocial interventions. These active interventions to maximize mood and well-being should form an integral part of multidisciplinary treatment in these patients.

  10. Predictive visual tracking based on least absolute deviation estimation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Rongtai Cai; Yanjie Wang

    2008-01-01

    To cope with the occlusion and intersection between targets and the environment, location prediction is employed in the visual tracking system. Target trace is fitted by sliding subsection polynomials based on least absolute deviation (LAD) estimation, and the future location of target is predicted with the fitted trace. Experiment results show that the proposed location prediction algorithm based on LAD estimation has significant robustness advantages over least square (LS) estimation, and it is more effective than LS-based methods in visual tracking.

  11. Predictive Models for Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus Spread Dynamics, Considering Frankliniella occidentalis Specific Life Processes as Influenced by the Virus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pamella Akoth Ogada

    Full Text Available Several models have been studied on predictive epidemics of arthropod vectored plant viruses in an attempt to bring understanding to the complex but specific relationship between the three cornered pathosystem (virus, vector and host plant, as well as their interactions with the environment. A large body of studies mainly focuses on weather based models as management tool for monitoring pests and diseases, with very few incorporating the contribution of vector's life processes in the disease dynamics, which is an essential aspect when mitigating virus incidences in a crop stand. In this study, we hypothesized that the multiplication and spread of tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV in a crop stand is strongly related to its influences on Frankliniella occidentalis preferential behavior and life expectancy. Model dynamics of important aspects in disease development within TSWV-F. occidentalis-host plant interactions were developed, focusing on F. occidentalis' life processes as influenced by TSWV. The results show that the influence of TSWV on F. occidentalis preferential behaviour leads to an estimated increase in relative acquisition rate of the virus, and up to 33% increase in transmission rate to healthy plants. Also, increased life expectancy; which relates to improved fitness, is dependent on the virus induced preferential behaviour, consequently promoting multiplication and spread of the virus in a crop stand. The development of vector-based models could further help in elucidating the role of tri-trophic interactions in agricultural disease systems. Use of the model to examine the components of the disease process could also boost our understanding on how specific epidemiological characteristics interact to cause diseases in crops. With this level of understanding we can efficiently develop more precise control strategies for the virus and the vector.

  12. Predictive Models for Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus Spread Dynamics, Considering Frankliniella occidentalis Specific Life Processes as Influenced by the Virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogada, Pamella Akoth; Moualeu, Dany Pascal; Poehling, Hans-Michael

    2016-01-01

    Several models have been studied on predictive epidemics of arthropod vectored plant viruses in an attempt to bring understanding to the complex but specific relationship between the three cornered pathosystem (virus, vector and host plant), as well as their interactions with the environment. A large body of studies mainly focuses on weather based models as management tool for monitoring pests and diseases, with very few incorporating the contribution of vector's life processes in the disease dynamics, which is an essential aspect when mitigating virus incidences in a crop stand. In this study, we hypothesized that the multiplication and spread of tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) in a crop stand is strongly related to its influences on Frankliniella occidentalis preferential behavior and life expectancy. Model dynamics of important aspects in disease development within TSWV-F. occidentalis-host plant interactions were developed, focusing on F. occidentalis' life processes as influenced by TSWV. The results show that the influence of TSWV on F. occidentalis preferential behaviour leads to an estimated increase in relative acquisition rate of the virus, and up to 33% increase in transmission rate to healthy plants. Also, increased life expectancy; which relates to improved fitness, is dependent on the virus induced preferential behaviour, consequently promoting multiplication and spread of the virus in a crop stand. The development of vector-based models could further help in elucidating the role of tri-trophic interactions in agricultural disease systems. Use of the model to examine the components of the disease process could also boost our understanding on how specific epidemiological characteristics interact to cause diseases in crops. With this level of understanding we can efficiently develop more precise control strategies for the virus and the vector.

  13. Do Metacognitions and Intolerance of Uncertainty Predict Worry in Everyday Life? An Ecological Momentary Assessment Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thielsch, Carolin; Andor, Tanja; Ehring, Thomas

    2015-07-01

    Cognitive models of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) suggest that excessive worry is due to positive and negative metacognitive beliefs and/or intolerance of uncertainty. Empirical support mainly derives from cross-sectional studies with limited conclusiveness, using self-report measures and thereby possibly causing recall biases. The aim of the present study therefore was to examine the power of these cognitive variables to predict levels of worry in everyday life using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA). Metacognitions and intolerance of uncertainty were assessed using well-established self-report questionnaires in 41 nonclinical participants who subsequently completed ratings on worry intensity and burden on a portable device for 1week at seven times a day once every 2hours. Results showed significant associations of negative metacognitive beliefs and intolerance of uncertainty, but not positive metacognitive beliefs, with worry in everyday life. In multilevel regression analyses, a substantial proportion of variance of everyday worry could be accounted for by negative metacognitions over and above trait worry and daily hassles. Intolerance of uncertainty likewise emerged as a valid predictor when tested in isolation, but did not explain additional variance once negative metacognitions were controlled. The findings support current cognitive models of excessive worry and highlight the role of negative metacognitions. By using EMA to assess levels of worry in everyday life, they extend earlier findings focusing exclusively on retrospective questionnaire measures.

  14. Life history predicts risk of species decline in a stochastic world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Allen, Benjamin G; Dunham, Amy E; Asquith, Christopher M; Rudolf, Volker H W

    2012-07-07

    Understanding what traits determine the extinction risk of species has been a long-standing challenge. Natural populations increasingly experience reductions in habitat and population size concurrent with increasing novel environmental variation owing to anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. Recent studies show that a species risk of decline towards extinction is often non-random across species with different life histories. We propose that species with life histories in which all stage-specific vital rates are more evenly important to population growth rate may be less likely to decline towards extinction under these pressures. To test our prediction, we modelled declines in population growth rates under simulated stochastic disturbance to the vital rates of 105 species taken from the literature. Populations with more equally important vital rates, determined using elasticity analysis, declined more slowly across a gradient of increasing simulated environmental variation. Furthermore, higher evenness of elasticity was significantly correlated with a reduced chance of listing as Threatened on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List. The relative importance of life-history traits of diverse species can help us infer how natural assemblages will be affected by novel anthropogenic and climatic disturbances.

  15. Attachment style predicts affect, cognitive appraisals, and social functioning in daily life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheinbaum, Tamara; Kwapil, Thomas R; Ballespí, Sergi; Mitjavila, Mercè; Chun, Charlotte A; Silvia, Paul J; Barrantes-Vidal, Neus

    2015-01-01

    The way in which attachment styles are expressed in the moment as individuals navigate their real-life settings has remained an area largely untapped by attachment research. The present study examined how adult attachment styles are expressed in daily life using experience sampling methodology (ESM) in a sample of 206 Spanish young adults. Participants were administered the Attachment Style Interview (ASI) and received personal digital assistants that signaled them randomly eight times per day for 1 week to complete questionnaires about their current experiences and social context. As hypothesized, participants' momentary affective states, cognitive appraisals, and social functioning varied in meaningful ways as a function of their attachment style. Individuals with an anxious attachment, as compared with securely attached individuals, endorsed experiences that were congruent with hyperactivating tendencies, such as higher negative affect, stress, and perceived social rejection. By contrast, individuals with an avoidant attachment, relative to individuals with a secure attachment, endorsed experiences that were consistent with deactivating tendencies, such as decreased positive states and a decreased desire to be with others when alone. Furthermore, the expression of attachment styles in social contexts was shown to be dependent upon the subjective appraisal of the closeness of social contacts, and not merely upon the presence of social interactions. The findings support the ecological validity of the ASI and the person-by-situation character of attachment theory. Moreover, they highlight the utility of ESM for investigating how the predictions derived from attachment theory play out in the natural flow of real life.

  16. Theoretical bases analysis of scientific prediction on marketing principles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.S. Rosohata

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The article presents an overview categorical apparatus of scientific predictions and theoretical foundations results of scientific forecasting. They are integral part of effective management of economic activities. The approaches to the prediction of scientists in different fields of Social science and the categories modification of scientific prediction, based on principles of marketing are proposed.

  17. REMAINING LIFE TIME PREDICTION OF BEARINGS USING K-STAR ALGORITHM – A STATISTICAL APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. SATISHKUMAR

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The role of bearings is significant in reducing the down time of all rotating machineries. The increasing trend of bearing failures in recent times has triggered the need and importance of deployment of condition monitoring. There are multiple factors associated to a bearing failure while it is in operation. Hence, a predictive strategy is required to evaluate the current state of the bearings in operation. In past, predictive models with regression techniques were widely used for bearing lifetime estimations. The Objective of this paper is to estimate the remaining useful life of bearings through a machine learning approach. The ultimate objective of this study is to strengthen the predictive maintenance. The present study was done using classification approach following the concepts of machine learning and a predictive model was built to calculate the residual lifetime of bearings in operation. Vibration signals were acquired on a continuous basis from an experiment wherein the bearings are made to run till it fails naturally. It should be noted that the experiment was carried out with new bearings at pre-defined load and speed conditions until the bearing fails on its own. In the present work, statistical features were deployed and feature selection process was carried out using J48 decision tree and selected features were used to develop the prognostic model. The K-Star classification algorithm, a supervised machine learning technique is made use of in building a predictive model to estimate the lifetime of bearings. The performance of classifier was cross validated with distinct data. The result shows that the K-Star classification model gives 98.56% classification accuracy with selected features.

  18. A Review of Quality of Life after Predictive Testing for and Earlier Identification of Neurodegenerative Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, Jane S.; Nance, Martha; Kim, Ji-In; Carlozzi, Noelle E.; Panegyres, Peter K.; Erwin, Cheryl; Goh, Anita; McCusker, Elizabeth; Williams, Janet K.

    2013-01-01

    The past decade has witnessed an explosion of evidence suggesting that many neurodegenerative diseases can be detected years, if not decades, earlier than previously thought. To date, these scientific advances have not provoked any parallel translational or clinical improvements. There is an urgency to capitalize on this momentum so earlier detection of disease can be more readily translated into improved health-related quality of life for families at risk for, or suffering with, neurodegenerative diseases. In this review, we discuss health-related quality of life (HRQOL) measurement in neurodegenerative diseases and the importance of these “patient reported outcomes” for all clinical research. Next, we address HRQOL following early identification or predictive genetic testing in some neurodegenerative diseases: Huntington disease, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, Dementia with Lewy bodies, frontotemporal dementia, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, prion diseases, hereditary ataxias, Dentatorubral-pallidoluysian atrophy and Wilson's disease. After a brief report of available direct-to-consumer genetic tests, we address the juxtaposition of earlier disease identification with assumed reluctance towards predictive genetic testing. Forty-one studies examining health related outcomes following predictive genetic testing for neurodegenerative disease suggested that (a) extreme or catastrophic outcomes are rare; (b) consequences commonly include transiently increased anxiety and/or depression; (c) most participants report no regret; (d) many persons report extensive benefits to receiving genetic information; and (e) stigmatization and discrimination for genetic diseases are poorly understood and policy and laws are needed. Caution is appropriate for earlier identification of neurodegenerative diseases but findings suggest further progress is safe, feasible and likely to advance clinical care. PMID:24036231

  19. Bayesian probabilistic model for life prediction and fault mode classification of solid state luminaires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lall, Pradeep [Auburn Univ., Auburn, AL (United States); Wei, Junchao [Auburn Univ., Auburn, AL (United States); Sakalaukus, Peter [Auburn Univ., Auburn, AL (United States)

    2014-06-22

    A new method has been developed for assessment of the onset of degradation in solid state luminaires to classify failure mechanisms by using metrics beyond lumen degradation that are currently used for identification of failure. Luminous Flux output, Correlated Color Temperature Data on Philips LED Lamps has been gathered under 85°C/85%RH till lamp failure. Failure modes of the test population of the lamps have been studied to understand the failure mechanisms in 85°C/85%RH accelerated test. Results indicate that the dominant failure mechanism is the discoloration of the LED encapsulant inside the lamps which is the likely cause for the luminous flux degradation and the color shift. The acquired data has been used in conjunction with Bayesian Probabilistic Models to identify luminaires with onset of degradation much prior to failure through identification of decision boundaries between lamps with accrued damage and lamps beyond the failure threshold in the feature space. In addition luminaires with different failure modes have been classified separately from healthy pristine luminaires. The α-λ plots have been used to evaluate the robustness of the proposed methodology. Results show that the predicted degradation for the lamps tracks the true degradation observed during 85°C/85%RH during accelerated life test fairly closely within the ±20% confidence bounds. Correlation of model prediction with experimental results indicates that the presented methodology allows the early identification of the onset of failure much prior to development of complete failure distributions and can be used for assessing the damage state of SSLs in fairly large deployments. It is expected that, the new prediction technique will allow the development of failure distributions without testing till L70 life for the manifestation of failure.

  20. A review of quality of life after predictive testing for and earlier identification of neurodegenerative diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, Jane S; Nance, Martha; Kim, Ji-In; Carlozzi, Noelle E; Panegyres, Peter K; Erwin, Cheryl; Goh, Anita; McCusker, Elizabeth; Williams, Janet K

    2013-11-01

    The past decade has witnessed an explosion of evidence suggesting that many neurodegenerative diseases can be detected years, if not decades, earlier than previously thought. To date, these scientific advances have not provoked any parallel translational or clinical improvements. There is an urgency to capitalize on this momentum so earlier detection of disease can be more readily translated into improved health-related quality of life for families at risk for, or suffering with, neurodegenerative diseases. In this review, we discuss health-related quality of life (HRQOL) measurement in neurodegenerative diseases and the importance of these "patient reported outcomes" for all clinical research. Next, we address HRQOL following early identification or predictive genetic testing in some neurodegenerative diseases: Huntington disease, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, Dementia with Lewy bodies, frontotemporal dementia, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, prion diseases, hereditary ataxias, Dentatorubral-pallidoluysian atrophy and Wilson's disease. After a brief report of available direct-to-consumer genetic tests, we address the juxtaposition of earlier disease identification with assumed reluctance toward predictive genetic testing. Forty-one studies examining health-related outcomes following predictive genetic testing for neurodegenerative disease suggested that (a) extreme or catastrophic outcomes are rare; (b) consequences commonly include transiently increased anxiety and/or depression; (c) most participants report no regret; (d) many persons report extensive benefits to receiving genetic information; and (e) stigmatization and discrimination for genetic diseases are poorly understood and policy and laws are needed. Caution is appropriate for earlier identification of neurodegenerative diseases but findings suggest further progress is safe, feasible and likely to advance clinical care.

  1. Fatigue Strength Prediction of Drilling Materials Based on the Maximum Non-metallic Inclusion Size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Dezhi; Tian, Gang; Liu, Fei; Shi, Taihe; Zhang, Zhi; Hu, Junying; Liu, Wanying; Ouyang, Zhiying

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, the statistics of the size distribution of non-metallic inclusions in five drilling materials were performed. Based on the maximum non-metallic inclusion size, the fatigue strength of the drilling material was predicted. The sizes of non-metallic inclusions in drilling materials were observed to follow the inclusion size distribution rule. Then the maximum inclusion size in the fatigue specimens was deduced. According to the prediction equation of the maximum inclusion size and fatigue strength proposed by Murakami, fatigue strength of drilling materials was obtained. Moreover, fatigue strength was also measured through rotating bending tests. The predicted fatigue strength was significantly lower than the measured one. Therefore, according to the comparison results, the coefficients in the prediction equation were revised. The revised equation allowed the satisfactory prediction results of fatigue strength of drilling materials at the fatigue life of 107 rotations and could be used in the fast prediction of fatigue strength of drilling materials.

  2. Activity Prediction: A Twitter-based Exploration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weerkamp, W.; de Rijke, M.

    2012-01-01

    Social media platforms allow users to share their messages with everyone else. In microblogs, e.g., Twitter, people mostly report on what they did, they talk about current activities, and mention things they plan to do in the near future. In this paper, we propose the task of activity prediction, th

  3. Fatigue life prediction of casing welded pipes by using the extended finite element method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ljubica Lazić Vulićević

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The extended finite element (XFEM method has been used to simulate fatigue crack growth in casing pipe, made of API J55 steel by high-frequency welding, in order estimate its structural integrity and life. Based on the critical value of stress intensity factor KIc, measured in different regions of welded joint, the crack was located in the base metal as the region with the lowest resistance to crack initiation and propagation. The XFEM was first applied to the 3 point bending specimens to verify numerical results with the experimental ones. After successful verification, the XFEM was used to simulate fatigue crack growth, position axially in the pipe, and estimate its remaining life.

  4. Neural Network Based on Sum Squared Relative Error to Predict the Multixial Fatigue Life of Magnesium Alloy%基于相对误差平方和的神经网络预测镁合金多轴疲劳寿命

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    熊缨; 岑恺

    2016-01-01

    提出一种以相对误差平方和(Sum squared relative error,SSRE)作为误差性能函数的反向传播(Back propagation,BP)神经网络算法(SSRE-BP),针对3种不同镁合金 AZ31B、ZK60和 AZ61A 在单轴拉压、纯扭、45°比例和90°圆形非比例等4种不同加载路径下的疲劳寿命进行预测。并与以均方误差(Mean squared error,MSE)作为误差性能函数的传统BP神经网络(MSE-BP)以及基于临界平面法的SWT疲劳损伤模型预测的结果进行比较。结果表明,在3种镁合金材料总共138组疲劳数据中,神经网络只有一组预测值在3倍偏差界限外,而用SWT预测结果分别有16组、13组、10组数据在3倍偏差界限外。两种BP神经网络能够较好地预测镁合金不同加载路径下的疲劳寿命,相比于SWT疲劳模型预测的寿命在精度上有较大幅度的提升。其中,SSRE-BP算法的精度略高于传统的MSE-BP算法。%An improved BP network which use sum of squared relative error (SSRE) as the performance function is applied to predict the fatigue life of three kinds of magnesium alloy under different loading paths. Stain-controlled fatigue experiments are conducted on AZ31B and ZK60 magnesium alloy under four loading paths, which including fully reversed tension-compression, cyclic torsion, 45°in-phaseaxial-torsion and 90° out-of-phase axial-torsion. In addition, the fatigue data of AZ61A magnesium alloy from literature are also adopted. Two fatigue life prediction methods, namely, a standard BP network which use mean squared error(MSE) as the performance function, and Smith-Watson-Topper(SWT) critical plane fatigue models, are evaluated based on the experimentally obtained fatigue results. Result shows that all of the predicted results except one date by both BP network are within factor-of-three boundaries,there are 16 date, 13 date and 10 date predicted by SWT model outside factor-of-three boundaries even factor-of-five boundaries

  5. A Model of the Fatigue Life Distribution of Composite Laminates Based on Their Static Strength Distribution

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wu Fuqiang; Yao Weixing

    2008-01-01

    The reasons of the static strength dispersion and the fatigue life dispersion of composite laminates are analyzed in this article.It is concluded that the inner original defects,which derived from the manufacturing process of composite laminates,are the common and major reason of causing the random distributions of the static strength and the fatigue life.And there is a correlative relation between the two distributions.With the study of statistical relationship between the fatigue loading and the fatigue life in the uniform confidence level and the same survival rate S-N curves of material,the relationship between the static strength distribution and the fatigue life distribution through a material S-N curve model has been obtained.And then the model which is used to describe the distributions of fatigue life of composites,based on their distributions of static strength,is set up.This model reasonably reflects the effects of the inner original defects on the static strength dispersion and on the fatigue life dispersion of composite laminates.The experimental data of three kinds of composite laminates are employed to verify this model,and the results show that this model can predict the random distributions of fatigue life for composites under any fatigue loads fairly well.

  6. Feature Selection for Neural Network Based Stock Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugunnasil, Prompong; Somhom, Samerkae

    We propose a new methodology of feature selection for stock movement prediction. The methodology is based upon finding those features which minimize the correlation relation function. We first produce all the combination of feature and evaluate each of them by using our evaluate function. We search through the generated set with hill climbing approach. The self-organizing map based stock prediction model is utilized as the prediction method. We conduct the experiment on data sets of the Microsoft Corporation, General Electric Co. and Ford Motor Co. The results show that our feature selection method can improve the efficiency of the neural network based stock prediction.

  7. Fatigue life prediction using multiaxial energy calculations with the mean stress effect to predict failure of linear and nonlinear elastic solids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagode, Marko; Šeruga, Domen

    An approach is presented that enables the calculation of elastic strain energy in linear and nonlinear elastic solids during arbitrary thermomechanical load cycles. The approach uses the simple fact that the variation of both strain and complementary energies always forms a rectangular shape in stress-strain space, hence integration is no longer required to calculate the energy. Furthermore, the approach considers the mean stress effect so that predictions of fatigue damage are more realistically representative of real-life experimental observations. By doing so, a parameter has been proposed to adjust the mean stress effect. This parameter α is based on the well-known Smith-Watson-Topper energy criterion, but allows consideration of other arbitrary mean stress effects, e.g. the Bergmann type criterion. The approach has then been incorporated into a numerical method which can be applied to uniaxial and multiaxial, proportional and non-proportional loadings to predict fatigue damage. The end result of the method is the cyclic evolution of accumulated damage. Numerical examples show how the method presented in this paper could be applied to a nonlinear elastic material.

  8. Fatigue life prediction of casing welded pipes by using the extended finite element method

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    The extended finite element (XFEM) method has been used to simulate fatigue crack growth in casing pipe, made of API J55 steel by high-frequency welding, in order estimate its structural integrity and life. Based on the critical value of stress intensity factor KIc, measured in different regions of welded joint, the crack was located in the base metal as the region with the lowest resistance to crack initiation and propagation. The XFEM was first applied to the 3 point bending specimens to...

  9. Sleep quality predicts quality of life in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tzahit Simon-Tuval

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Steven M Scharf1*, Nimrod Maimon2*, Tzahit Simon-Tuval3, Barbara J Bernhard-Scharf4, Haim Reuveni2, Ariel Tarasiuk21Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care, University of Maryland, Baltimore, MD, USA; 2Faculty of Health Sciences, Ben-Gurion University, Beersheba, Israel; 3Guilford Glazer School of Business and Management, Ben Gurion University, Beersheba, Israel; 4Mt. Washington Pediatric Hospital, Baltimore, MD, USA; The study was performed at the Soroka University Medical Center, Beer Sheva, Israel*Drs Scharf and Maimon contributed equally to this manuscript.Purpose: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD patients may suffer from poor sleep and health-related quality of life. We hypothesized that disturbed sleep in COPD is correlated with quality of life.Methods: In 180 patients with COPD (forced expired volume in 1 second [FEV1] 47.6 ± 15.2% predicted, 77.8% male, aged 65.9 ± 11.7 years, we administered general (Health Utilities Index 3 and disease-specific (St George’s Respiratory questionnaires and an index of disturbed sleep (Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index.Results: Overall scores indicated poor general (Health Utilities Index 3: 0.52 ± 0.38, disease-specific (St George’s: 57.0 ± 21.3 quality of life and poor sleep quality (Pittsburgh 11.0 ± 5.4. Sleep time correlated with the number of respiratory and anxiety symptoms reported at night. Seventy-seven percent of the patients had Pittsburg scores >5, and the median Pittsburgh score was 12. On multivariate regression, the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index was an independent predictor of both the Health Utilities Index 3 and the St George’s scores, accounting for 3% and 5%, respectively, of the scores. Only approximately 25% of the patients demonstrated excessive sleepiness (Epworth Sleepiness Scale >9.Conclusions: Most patients with COPD suffer disturbed sleep. Sleep quality was correlated with general and disease-specific quality of life. Only a minority of COPD patients

  10. Fatigue life prediction and experiment research for composite laminates with circular hole

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    齐红宇; 温卫东; 孙联文

    2004-01-01

    Based on the fatigue prediction model of exponential function and Whitney-Nuismer(WN) criterion of static strength for the composite material laminate with a circular hole, the stress correct factor (β) was put forward and a new fatigue prediction model for composite material laminate was set up. T300/KH304, which is recently studied and is a high capability composite material, was used as the raw material. In order to gain the factorβ, the fatigue experiments of the laminates with holes in different diameters and the same ratio of width to diameter were conducted. The fatigue analysis and tests of the laminates with a hole 5 mm in diameter are carried out at different stress levels, and the results meet the engineering requirement. The simple, prompt and practical method is provided for the prediction of S-N curve of composite laminate with a circular hole.

  11. NASA Langley developments in response calculations needed for failure and life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Housner, Jerrold M.

    1993-10-01

    NASA Langley developments in response calculations needed for failure and life predictions are discussed. Topics covered include: structural failure analysis in concurrent engineering; accuracy of independent regional modeling demonstrated on classical example; functional interface method accurately joins incompatible finite element models; interface method for insertion of local detail modeling extended to curve pressurized fuselage window panel; interface concept for joining structural regions; motivation for coupled 2D-3D analysis; compression panel with discontinuous stiffener coupled 2D-3D model and axial surface strains at the middle of the hat stiffener; use of adaptive refinement with multiple methods; adaptive mesh refinement; and studies on quantity effect of bow-type initial imperfections on reliability of stiffened panels.

  12. Failure Mechanisms and Life Prediction of Thermal and Environmental Barrier Coatings under Thermal Gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zju, Dongming; Ghosn, Louis J.; Miller, Robert A.

    2008-01-01

    Ceramic thermal and environmental barrier coatings (TEBCs) will play an increasingly important role in gas turbine engines because of their ability to further raise engine temperatures. However, the issue of coating durability is of major concern under high-heat-flux conditions. In particular, the accelerated coating delamination crack growth under the engine high heat-flux conditions is not well understood. In this paper, a laser heat flux technique is used to investigate the coating delamination crack propagation under realistic temperature-stress gradients and thermal cyclic conditions. The coating delamination mechanisms are investigated under various thermal loading conditions, and are correlated with coating dynamic fatigue, sintering and interfacial adhesion test results. A coating life prediction framework may be realized by examining the crack initiation and propagation driving forces for coating failure under high-heat-flux test conditions.

  13. Development and Life Prediction of Erosion Resistant Turbine Low Conductivity Thermal Barrier Coatings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Dongming; Miller, Robert A.; Kuczmarski, Maria A.

    2010-01-01

    Future rotorcraft propulsion systems are required to operate under highly-loaded conditions and in harsh sand erosion environments, thereby imposing significant material design and durability issues. The incorporation of advanced thermal barrier coatings (TBC) in high pressure turbine systems enables engine designs with higher inlet temperatures, thus improving the engine efficiency, power density and reliability. The impact and erosion resistance of turbine thermal barrier coating systems are crucial to the turbine coating technology application, because a robust turbine blade TBC system is a prerequisite for fully utilizing the potential coating technology benefit in the rotorcraft propulsion. This paper describes the turbine blade TBC development in addressing the coating impact and erosion resistance. Advanced thermal barrier coating systems with improved performance have also been validated in laboratory simulated engine erosion and/or thermal gradient environments. A preliminary life prediction modeling approach to emphasize the turbine blade coating erosion is also presented.

  14. Implicit theories about willpower predict self-regulation and grades in everyday life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Job, Veronika; Walton, Gregory M; Bernecker, Katharina; Dweck, Carol S

    2015-04-01

    Laboratory research shows that when people believe that willpower is an abundant (rather than highly limited) resource they exhibit better self-control after demanding tasks. However, some have questioned whether this "nonlimited" theory leads to squandering of resources and worse outcomes in everyday life when demands on self-regulation are high. To examine this, we conducted a longitudinal study, assessing students' theories about willpower and tracking their self-regulation and academic performance. As hypothesized, a nonlimited theory predicted better self-regulation (better time management and less procrastination, unhealthy eating, and impulsive spending) for students who faced high self-regulatory demands. Moreover, among students taking a heavy course load, those with a nonlimited theory earned higher grades, which was mediated by less procrastination. These findings contradict the idea that a limited theory helps people allocate their resources more effectively; instead, it is people with the nonlimited theory who self-regulate well in the face of high demands.

  15. Science gateways for semantic-web-based life science applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardizzone, Valeria; Bruno, Riccardo; Calanducci, Antonio; Carrubba, Carla; Fargetta, Marco; Ingrà, Elisa; Inserra, Giuseppina; La Rocca, Giuseppe; Monforte, Salvatore; Pistagna, Fabrizio; Ricceri, Rita; Rotondo, Riccardo; Scardaci, Diego; Barbera, Roberto

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we present the architecture of a framework for building Science Gateways supporting official standards both for user authentication and authorization and for middleware-independent job and data management. Two use cases of the customization of the Science Gateway framework for Semantic-Web-based life science applications are also described.

  16. 基于油液光谱分析和粒子滤波的发动机剩余寿命预测研究%Research on Engine Remaining Useful Life Prediction Based on Oil Spectrum Analysis and Particle Filtering

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙磊; 贾云献; 蔡丽影; 林国语; 赵劲松

    2013-01-01

    The spectrometric oil analysis(SOA) is an important technique for machine state monitoring,fault diagnosis and prognosis,and SOA based remaining useful life(RUL) prediction has an advantage of finding out the optimal maintenance strategy for machine system.Because the complexity of machine system,its health state degradation process can't be simply cbaracterized by linear model,while particle filtering(PF) possesses obvious advantages over traditional Kalman filtering for dealing nonlinear and non-Gaussian system,the PF approach was applied to state forecasting by SOA,and the RUL prediction technique based on SOA and PF algorithm is proposed.In the prediction model,according m the estimating result of system's posterior probability,its prior probability distribution is realized,and the multi-step ahead prediction model based on PF algorithm is estahlished.Finally,the practical SOA data of some engine was amlyzed and forecasted by the above method,and the forecasting result was compared with that of traditional Kalman filtering method.The result fully shows the superiority and effectivity of the new method.%油液光谱分析是机械磨损状态监测、故障诊断与故障预测的重要技术,基于光谱数据的机械状态剩余寿命预测有利于实现机械系统的最优维修决策.由于机械设备越来越复杂,其健康状态的退化过程很难用线性模型来表示,而粒子滤波(particle filter,PF)对非线性非高斯系统的处理能力,与经典Kalman滤波相比具有明显的优势,文章将PF预测方法运用于光谱分析,提出了基于PF和油液光谱分析技术的设备剩余寿命预测方法.在预测模型中实现了根据设备后验分布的估计值预测其先验分布概率,建立了基于PF的多步向前长期预测模型.最后,对某发动机实际的光谱分析数据进行了预测和分析,并与传统Kalman滤波方法的预测结果进行了比较,结果充分表明了本方法的有效性和优越性.

  17. Link prediction based on path entropy

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Zhongqi; Yang, Jian

    2015-01-01

    Information theory has been taken as a prospective tool for quantifying the complexity of complex networks. In this paper, we first study the information entropy or uncertainty of a path using the information theory. Then we apply the path entropy to the link prediction problem in real-world networks. Specifically, we propose a new similarity index, namely Path Entropy (PE) index, which considers the information entropies of shortest paths between node pairs with penalization to long paths. Empirical experiments demonstrate that PE index outperforms the mainstream link predictors.

  18. Cyclic fatigue damage characteristics observed for simple loadings extended to multiaxial life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, David J.; Kurath, Peter

    1988-01-01

    Fully reversed uniaxial strain controlled fatigue tests were performed on smooth cylindrical specimens made of 304 stainless steel. Fatigue life data and cracking observations for uniaxial tests were compared with life data and cracking behavior observed in fully reversed torsional tests. It was determined that the product of maximum principle strain amplitude and maximum principle stress provided the best correlation of fatigue lives for these two loading conditions. Implementation of this parameter is in agreement with observed physical damage and it accounts for the variation of stress-strain response, which is unique to specific loading conditions. Biaxial fatigue tests were conducted on tubular specimens employing both in-phase and out-of-phase tension torsion cyclic strain paths. Cracking observations indicated that the physical damage which occurred in the biaxial tests was similar to the damage observed in uniaxial and torsional tests. The Smith, Watson, and Topper parameter was then extended to predict the fatigue lives resulting from the more complex loading conditions.

  19. Satellite Lithium-Ion Battery Remaining Cycle Life Prediction with Novel Indirect Health Indicator Extraction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haitao Liao

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Prognostics and remaining useful life (RUL estimation for lithium-ion batteries play an important role in intelligent battery management systems (BMS. The capacity is often used as the fade indicator for estimating the remaining cycle life of a lithium-ion battery. For spacecraft requiring high reliability and long lifetime, in-orbit RUL estimation and reliability verification on ground should be carefully addressed. However, it is quite challenging to monitor and estimate the capacity of a lithium-ion battery on-line in satellite applications. In this work, a novel health indicator (HI is extracted from the operating parameters of a lithium-ion battery to quantify battery degradation. Moreover, the Grey Correlation Analysis (GCA is utilized to evaluate the similarities between the extracted HI and the battery’s capacity. The result illustrates the effectiveness of using this new HI for fading indication. Furthermore, we propose an optimized ensemble monotonic echo state networks (En_MONESN algorithm, in which the monotonic constraint is introduced to improve the adaptivity of degradation trend estimation, and ensemble learning is integrated to achieve high stability and precision of RUL prediction. Experiments with actual testing data show the efficiency of our proposed method in RUL estimation and degradation modeling for the satellite lithium-ion battery application.

  20. Attachment Style Predicts Affect, Cognitive Appraisals, and Social Functioning in Daily Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamara eSheinbaum

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The way in which attachment styles are expressed in the moment as individuals navigate their real-life settings has remained an area largely untapped by attachment research. The present study examined how adult attachment styles are expressed in daily life using Experience Sampling Methodology (ESM in a sample of 206 Spanish young adults. Participants were administered the Attachment Style Interview and received personal digital assistants that signaled them randomly eight times per day for one week to complete questionnaires about their current experiences and social context. As hypothesized, participants’ momentary affective states, cognitive appraisals, and social functioning varied in meaningful ways as a function of their attachment style. Individuals with an anxious attachment, as compared with securely attached individuals, endorsed experiences that were congruent with hyperactivating tendencies, such as higher negative affect, stress, and perceived social rejection. By contrast, individuals with an avoidant attachment, relative to individuals with a secure attachment, endorsed experiences that were consistent with deactivating tendencies, such as decreased positive states and a decreased desire to be with others when alone. Furthermore, the expression of attachment styles in social contexts was shown to be dependent upon the subjective appraisal of the closeness of social contacts, and not merely upon the presence of social interactions. The findings support the ecological validity of the Attachment Style Interview and the person-by-situation character of attachment theory. Moreover, they highlight the utility of ESM for investigating how the predictions derived from attachment theory play out in the natural flow of real life.

  1. A Methodology to Predict Uniform Material Fatigue Life of Cast Iron: Law for Cast Iron%A Methodology to Predict Uniform Material Fatigue Life of Cast Iron: Law for Cast Iron

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Sinan Korkmaz

    2011-01-01

    Mechanical, physical and manufacturing properties of east iron make it attractive for many fields of application, such as cranks and cylinder holds. As in design of all metals, fatigue life prediction is an intrinsic part of the design process of structural sections that are made of cast iron. A methodology to predict high-cycle fatigue life of cast iron is proposed. Stress amplitude-strain amplitude, strain amplitude-number of loading cycles relationships of cast iron are investigated. Also, fatigue life prediction in terms of Smith, Watson and Topper parameter is carried out using the proposed method. Results indicate that the analytical outcomes of the proposed methodology are in good accordance with the experimental data for the two studied types of cast iron: EN-GJS-400 and EN-GJS-600.

  2. Gene function prediction based on the Gene Ontology hierarchical structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Liangxi; Lin, Hongfei; Hu, Yuncui; Wang, Jian; Yang, Zhihao

    2014-01-01

    The information of the Gene Ontology annotation is helpful in the explanation of life science phenomena, and can provide great support for the research of the biomedical field. The use of the Gene Ontology is gradually affecting the way people store and understand bioinformatic data. To facilitate the prediction of gene functions with the aid of text mining methods and existing resources, we transform it into a multi-label top-down classification problem and develop a method that uses the hierarchical relationships in the Gene Ontology structure to relieve the quantitative imbalance of positive and negative training samples. Meanwhile the method enhances the discriminating ability of classifiers by retaining and highlighting the key training samples. Additionally, the top-down classifier based on a tree structure takes the relationship of target classes into consideration and thus solves the incompatibility between the classification results and the Gene Ontology structure. Our experiment on the Gene Ontology annotation corpus achieves an F-value performance of 50.7% (precision: 52.7% recall: 48.9%). The experimental results demonstrate that when the size of training set is small, it can be expanded via topological propagation of associated documents between the parent and child nodes in the tree structure. The top-down classification model applies to the set of texts in an ontology structure or with a hierarchical relationship.

  3. Prediction and functional analysis of native disorder in proteins from the three kingdoms of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, J J; Sodhi, J S; McGuffin, L J; Buxton, B F; Jones, D T

    2004-03-26

    An automatic method for recognizing natively disordered regions from amino acid sequence is described and benchmarked against predictors that were assessed at the latest critical assessment of techniques for protein structure prediction (CASP) experiment. The method attains a Wilcoxon score of 90.0, which represents a statistically significant improvement on the methods evaluated on the same targets at CASP. The classifier, DISOPRED2, was used to estimate the frequency of native disorder in several representative genomes from the three kingdoms of life. Putative, long (>30 residue) disordered segments are found to occur in 2.0% of archaean, 4.2% of eubacterial and 33.0% of eukaryotic proteins. The function of proteins with long predicted regions of disorder was investigated using the gene ontology annotations supplied with the Saccharomyces genome database. The analysis of the yeast proteome suggests that proteins containing disorder are often located in the cell nucleus and are involved in the regulation of transcription and cell signalling. The results also indicate that native disorder is associated with the molecular functions of kinase activity and nucleic acid binding.

  4. Quality and shelf-life prediction for retail fresh hake (Merluccius merluccius).

    Science.gov (United States)

    García, Míriam R; Vilas, Carlos; Herrera, Juan R; Bernárdez, Marta; Balsa-Canto, Eva; Alonso, Antonio A

    2015-09-02

    Fish quality has a direct impact on market price and its accurate assessment and prediction are of main importance to set prices, increase competitiveness, resolve conflicts of interest and prevent food wastage due to conservative product shelf-life estimations. In this work we present a general methodology to derive predictive models of fish freshness under different storage conditions. The approach makes use of the theory of optimal experimental design, to maximize data information and in this way reduce the number of experiments. The resulting growth model for specific spoilage microorganisms in hake (Merluccius merluccius) is sufficiently informative to estimate quality sensory indexes under time-varying temperature profiles. In addition it incorporates quantitative information of the uncertainty induced by fish variability. The model has been employed to test the effect of factors such as fishing gear or evisceration, on fish spoilage and therefore fish quality. Results show no significant differences in terms of microbial growth between hake fished by long-line or bottom-set nets, within the implicit uncertainty of the model. Similar conclusions can be drawn for gutted and un-gutted hake along the experiment horizon. In addition, whenever there is the possibility to carry out the necessary experiments, this approach is sufficiently general to be used in other fish species and under different stress variables.

  5. Size-based predictions of food web patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Lai; Hartvig, Martin; Knudsen, Kim

    2014-01-01

    simulations with varying species richness. To this end, we develop a new size- and trait-based food web model that can be simplified into an analytically solvable size-based model. We confirm existing solutions for the size distribution and derive novel predictions for maximum trophic level and invasion......We employ size-based theoretical arguments to derive simple analytic predictions of ecological patterns and properties of natural communities: size-spectrum exponent, maximum trophic level, and susceptibility to invasive species. The predictions are brought about by assuming that an infinite number...... of species are continuously distributed on a size-trait axis. It is, however, an open question whether such predictions are valid for a food web with a finite number of species embedded in a network structure. We address this question by comparing the size-based predictions to results from dynamic food web...

  6. Research on Life Signals Detection Based on Higher Order Statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian-Jun Li

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The life signals are built on harmonic mode for their low frequency, quasi-periodicity, low SNR, and the easy submerged in strong clutter noise. The method for detecting life signal based on adaptive filter and high order statistics is presented, in which neither the Gaussian supposition of the observed signal, nor a prior information about the waveform and arrival time of the observed signal is necessary. The principle of method is to  separate the spectrum of input signal into many narrow frequency bands, whose Sub-band signal  is followed by a short-time estimation of higher-order statistics so as to suppress Gaussian noises. Simulated results show that the method can effectively detect life signals from noise with good convergence speed and stability, and greatly improve the signal quality with respect to LMS method.

  7. Comparing model predictions for ecosystem-based management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Nis Sand; Essington, Timothy E.; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2016-01-01

    E)) and a size-structured fish community model. The models were compared with respect to predicted ecological consequences of fishing to identify commonalities and differences in model predictions for the California Current fish community. We compared the models regarding direct and indirect responses to fishing...... on one or more species. The size-based model predicted a higher fishing mortality needed to reach maximum sustainable yield than EwE for most species. The size-based model also predicted stronger top-down effects of predator removals than EwE. In contrast, EwE predicted stronger bottom-up effects...... of forage fisheries removal. In both cases, the differences are due to the presumed degree of trophic overlap between juveniles of large-bodied fish and adult stages of forage fish. These differences highlight how each model’s emphasis on distinct details of ecological processes affects its predictions...

  8. Transmission line icing prediction based on DWT feature extraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, T. N.; Niu, D. X.; Huang, Y. L.

    2016-08-01

    Transmission line icing prediction is the premise of ensuring the safe operation of the network as well as the very important basis for the prevention of freezing disasters. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of icing, a transmission line icing prediction model based on discrete wavelet transform (DWT) feature extraction was built. In this method, a group of high and low frequency signals were obtained by DWT decomposition, and were fitted and predicted by using partial least squares regression model (PLS) and wavelet least square support vector model (w-LSSVM). Finally, the final result of the icing prediction was obtained by adding the predicted values of the high and low frequency signals. The results showed that the method is effective and feasible in the prediction of transmission line icing.

  9. Copula-based prediction of economic movements

    Science.gov (United States)

    García, J. E.; González-López, V. A.; Hirsh, I. D.

    2016-06-01

    In this paper we model the discretized returns of two paired time series BM&FBOVESPA Dividend Index and BM&FBOVESPA Public Utilities Index using multivariate Markov models. The discretization corresponds to three categories, high losses, high profits and the complementary periods of the series. In technical terms, the maximal memory that can be considered for a Markov model, can be derived from the size of the alphabet and dataset. The number of parameters needed to specify a discrete multivariate Markov chain grows exponentially with the order and dimension of the chain. In this case the size of the database is not large enough for a consistent estimation of the model. We apply a strategy to estimate a multivariate process with an order greater than the order achieved using standard procedures. The new strategy consist on obtaining a partition of the state space which is constructed from a combination, of the partitions corresponding to the two marginal processes and the partition corresponding to the multivariate Markov chain. In order to estimate the transition probabilities, all the partitions are linked using a copula. In our application this strategy provides a significant improvement in the movement predictions.

  10. Chaotic Encryption Method Based on Life-Like Cellular Automata

    CERN Document Server

    Machicao, Marina Jeaneth; Bruno, Odemir M

    2011-01-01

    We propose a chaotic encryption method based on Cellular Automata(CA), specifically on the family called the "Life-Like" type. Thus, the encryption process lying on the pseudo-random numbers generated (PRNG) by each CA's evolution, which transforms the password as the initial conditions to encrypt messages. Moreover, is explored the dynamical behavior of CA to reach a "good" quality as PRNG based on measures to quantify "how chaotic a dynamical system is", through the combination of the entropy, Lyapunov exponent, and Hamming distance. Finally, we present the detailed security analysis based on experimental tests: DIEHARD and ENT suites, as well as Fouriers Power Spectrum, used as a security criteria.

  11. Model Predictive Control based on Finite Impulse Response Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prasath, Guru; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2008-01-01

    We develop a regularized l2 finite impulse response (FIR) predictive controller with input and input-rate constraints. Feedback is based on a simple constant output disturbance filter. The performance of the predictive controller in the face of plant-model mismatch is investigated by simulations...

  12. Prediction based chaos control via a new neural network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen Liqun [School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001 (China)], E-mail: liqunshen@gmail.com; Wang Mao [Space Control and Inertia Technology Research Center, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001 (China); Liu Wanyu [School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001 (China); Sun Guanghui [Space Control and Inertia Technology Research Center, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001 (China)

    2008-11-17

    In this Letter, a new chaos control scheme based on chaos prediction is proposed. To perform chaos prediction, a new neural network architecture for complex nonlinear approximation is proposed. And the difficulty in building and training the neural network is also reduced. Simulation results of Logistic map and Lorenz system show the effectiveness of the proposed chaos control scheme and the proposed neural network.

  13. Use of Artificial Neural Network for Testing Effectiveness of Intelligent Computing Models for Predicting Shelf Life of Processed Cheese

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GOYAL Kumar Gyanendra

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the suitability of artificial neural network (ANN models for predicting the shelf life of processed cheese stored at 7-8ºC. Soluble nitrogen, pH; standard plate count, yeast & mould count, and spore count were input variables, and sensory score was output variable. Mean square error, root mean square error, coefficient of determination and Nash - sutcliffo coefficient were used in order to test the effectiveness of the developed ANN models. Excellent agreement was found between experimental results and these mathematical parameters, thus confirming that ANN models are very effective in predicting the shelf life of processed cheese.

  14. Electrical Resistance of SiC/SiC Ceramic Matrix Composites for Damage Detection and Life-Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Craig; Morscher, Gregory; Xia, Zhenhai

    2009-01-01

    Ceramic matrix composites (CMC) are suitable for high temperature structural applications such as turbine airfoils and hypersonic thermal protection systems due to their low density high thermal conductivity. The employment of these materials in such applications is limited by the ability to accurately monitor and predict damage evolution. Current nondestructive methods such as ultrasound, x-ray, and thermal imaging are limited in their ability to quantify small scale, transverse, in-plane, matrix cracks developed over long-time creep and fatigue conditions. CMC is a multifunctional material in which the damage is coupled with the material s electrical resistance, providing the possibility of real-time information about the damage state through monitoring of resistance. Here, resistance measurement of SiC/SiC composites under mechanical load at both room temperature monotonic and high temperature creep conditions, coupled with a modal acoustic emission technique, can relate the effects of temperature, strain, matrix cracks, fiber breaks, and oxidation to the change in electrical resistance. A multiscale model can in turn be developed for life prediction of in-service composites, based on electrical resistance methods. Results of tensile mechanical testing of SiC/SiC composites at room and high temperatures will be discussed. Data relating electrical resistivity to composite constituent content, fiber architecture, temperature, matrix crack formation, and oxidation will be explained, along with progress in modeling such properties.

  15. Appreciation and Life Satisfaction: Does Appreciation Uniquely Predict Life Satisfaction above Gender, Coping Skills, Self-Esteem, and Positive Affectivity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halle, Joshua Solomon

    2015-01-01

    The primary purpose of this research was to examine whether appreciation explains variance in life satisfaction after controlling for gender, positive affectivity, self-esteem, and coping skills. Two hundred ninety-eight undergraduates went to the informed consent page of the online survey composed of the Appreciation Scale, the Satisfaction With…

  16. Report on three Genomes to Life Workshops: Data Infrastructure, Modeling and Simulation, and Protein Structure Prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Geist, GA

    2003-09-16

    On July 22, 23, 24, 2003, three one day workshops were held in Gaithersburg, Maryland. Each was attended by about 30 computational biologists, mathematicians, and computer scientists who were experts in the respective workshop areas The first workshop discussed the data infrastructure needs for the Genomes to Life (GTL) program with the objective to identify gaps in the present GTL data infrastructure and define the GTL data infrastructure required for the success of the proposed GTL facilities. The second workshop discussed the modeling and simulation needs for the next phase of the GTL program and defined how these relate to the experimental data generated by genomics, proteomics, and metabolomics. The third workshop identified emerging technical challenges in computational protein structure prediction for DOE missions and outlining specific goals for the next phase of GTL. The workshops were attended by representatives from both OBER and OASCR. The invited experts at each of the workshops made short presentations on what they perceived as the key needs in the GTL data infrastructure, modeling and simulation, and structure prediction respectively. Each presentation was followed by a lively discussion by all the workshop attendees. The following findings and recommendations were derived from the three workshops. A seamless integration of GTL data spanning the entire range of genomics, proteomics, and metabolomics will be extremely challenging but it has to be treated as the first-class component of the GTL program to assure GTL's chances for success. High-throughput GTL facilities and ultrascale computing will make it possible to address the ultimate goal of modern biology: to achieve a fundamental, comprehensive, and systematic understanding of life. But first the GTL community needs to address the problem of the massive quantities and increased complexity of biological data produced by experiments and computations. Genome-scale collection, analysis

  17. Entropy-based link prediction in weighted networks

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Zhongqi; Sharafat, Rajput Ramiz; Li, Lunbo; Yang, Jian

    2016-01-01

    Information entropy has been proved to be an effective tool to quantify the structural importance of complex networks. In the previous work (Xu et al, 2016 \\cite{xu2016}), we measure the contribution of a path in link prediction with information entropy. In this paper, we further quantify the contribution of a path with both path entropy and path weight, and propose a weighted prediction index based on the contributions of paths, namely Weighted Path Entropy (WPE), to improve the prediction accuracy in weighted networks. Empirical experiments on six weighted real-world networks show that WPE achieves higher prediction accuracy than three typical weighted indices.

  18. Slope Deformation Prediction Based on Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei JIA

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper principally studies the prediction of slope deformation based on Support Vector Machine (SVM. In the prediction process,explore how to reconstruct the phase space. The geological body’s displacement data obtained from chaotic time series are used as SVM’s training samples. Slope displacement caused by multivariable coupling is predicted by means of single variable. Results show that this model is of high fitting accuracy and generalization, and provides reference for deformation prediction in slope engineering.

  19. Life management of power plant based on structural damage testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tallermo, H.; Klevtsov, I. [Thermal Engineering Department of Tallinn Technical University, Tallinn (Estonia); Arras, V. [Eesti Energia, Tallinn (Estonia)

    1998-12-31

    Life management system is based on the valid nowadays in Estonian power plants regulation documentation. The system allows to estimate stress distribution in components, find computational assessment of cumulated creep damage, determine when and where it is necessary to cut off the particular number of microsamples or take replicas. Finally, the real metal condition may be assessed on the basis of metallographic specimen research and reasonable 3-R decision - run, repair, replacement - made on further component use. (orig.) 6 refs.

  20. Reconstruction of biological networks based on life science data integration

    OpenAIRE

    Kormeier, Benjamin; Hippe, Klaus; Arrigo, Patrizio; Töpel, Thoralf; Janowski, Sebastian; Hofestädt, Ralf

    2010-01-01

    For the implementation of the virtual cell, the fundamental question is how to model and simulate complex biological networks. Therefore, based on relevant molecular database and information systems, biological data integration is an essential step in constructing biological networks. In this paper, we will motivate the applications BioDWH - an integration toolkit for building life science data warehouses, CardioVINEdb - a information system for biological data in cardiovascular-disease and V...

  1. Fatigue life estimation for different notched specimens based on the volumetric approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esmaeili F.

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the effects of notch radius for different notched specimens has been studied on the values of stress concentration factor, notch strength reduction factor, and fatigue life duration of the specimens. The material which has been selected for this investigation is Al 2024T3 . Volumetric approach has been applied to obtain the values of notch strength reduction factor and results have been compared with those obtained from the Neuber and Peterson methods. Load controlled fatigue tests of mentioned specimens have been conducted on the 250kN servo-hydraulic Zwick/Amsler fatigue testing machine with the frequency of 10Hz. The fatigue lives of the specimens have also been predicted based on the available smooth S-N curve of Al2024-T3 and also the amounts of notch strength reduction factor which have been obtained from volumetric, Neuber and Peterson methods. The values of stress and strain around the notch roots are required to predict the fatigue life of notched specimens, so Ansys finite element code has been used and non-linear analyses have been performed to obtain the stress and strain distributions around the notches. The plastic deformations of the material have been simulated using multi-linear kinematic hardening and cyclic stress-strain relation. The work here shows that the volumetric approach does a very good job for predicting the fatigue life of the notched specimens.

  2. FEA Based Tool Life Quantity Estimation of Hot Forging Dies Under Cyclic Thermo-Mechanical Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrens, B.-A.; Bouguecha, A.; Schäfer, F.; Hadifi, T.

    2011-01-01

    Hot forging dies are exposed during service to a combination of cyclic thermo-mechanical, tribological and chemical loads. Besides abrasive and adhesive wear on the die surface, fatigue crack initiation with subsequent fracture is one of the most frequent causes of failure. In order to extend the tool life, the finite element analysis (FEA) may serve as a means for process design and process optimisation. So far the FEA based estimation of the production cycles until initial cracking is limited as tool material behaviour due to repeated loading is not captured with the required accuracy. Material models which are able to account for cyclic effects are not verified for the fatigue life predictions of forging dies. Furthermore fatigue properties from strain controlled fatigue tests of relevant hot work steels are to date not available to allow for a close-to-reality fatigue life prediction. Two industrial forging processes, where clear fatigue crack initiation has been observed are considered for a fatigue analysis. For this purpose the relevant tool components are modelled with elasto-plastic material behaviour. The predicted sites, where crack initiation occurs, agree with the ones observed on the real die component.

  3. Protein-Based Urine Test Predicts Kidney Transplant Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... News Releases News Release Thursday, August 22, 2013 Protein-based urine test predicts kidney transplant outcomes NIH- ... supporting development of noninvasive tests. Levels of a protein in the urine of kidney transplant recipients can ...

  4. Prediction-based estimating functions: Review and new developments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Michael

    2011-01-01

    The general theory of prediction-based estimating functions for stochastic process models is reviewed and extended. Particular attention is given to optimal estimation, asymptotic theory and Gaussian processes. Several examples of applications are presented. In particular, partial observation...

  5. Review of time-dependent fatigue behavior and life prediction for 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel. [LMFBR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Booker, M.K.; Majumdar, S.

    1982-01-01

    Available data on creep-fatigue life and fracture behavior of 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel are reviewed. Whereas creep-fatigue interaction is important for Type 304 stainless steel, oxidation effects appear to dominate the time-dependent fatigue behavior of 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel. Four of the currently available predictive methods - the Linear Damage Rule, Frequency Separation Equation, Strain Range Partitioning Equation, and Damage Rate Equation - are evaluated for their predictive capability. Variations in the parameters for the various predictive methods with temperature, heat of material, heat treatment, and environment are investigated. Relative trends in the lives predicted by the various methods as functions of test duration, waveshape, etc., are discussed. The predictive methods will need modification in order to account for oxidation and aging effects in the 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel. Future tests that will emphasize the difference between the various predictive methods are proposed.

  6. Prediction of Betavoltaic Battery Output Parameters Based on SEM Measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.B. Yakimov

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The approach for the prediction of betavoltaic battery output parameters based on EBIC investigations of semiconductor converters of beta-radiation energy into electric power is presented. Using this approach the parameters of battery based on porous Si are calculated. These parameters are compared with those of battery based on a planar Si p-n junction.

  7. Predicting links based on knowledge dissemination in complex network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Wen; Jia, Yifan

    2017-04-01

    Link prediction is the task of mining the missing links in networks or predicting the next vertex pair to be connected by a link. A lot of link prediction methods were inspired by evolutionary processes of networks. In this paper, a new mechanism for the formation of complex networks called knowledge dissemination (KD) is proposed with the assumption of knowledge disseminating through the paths of a network. Accordingly, a new link prediction method-knowledge dissemination based link prediction (KDLP)-is proposed to test KD. KDLP characterizes vertex similarity based on knowledge quantity (KQ) which measures the importance of a vertex through H-index. Extensive numerical simulations on six real-world networks demonstrate that KDLP is a strong link prediction method which performs at a higher prediction accuracy than four well-known similarity measures including common neighbors, local path index, average commute time and matrix forest index. Furthermore, based on the common conclusion that an excellent link prediction method reveals a good evolving mechanism, the experiment results suggest that KD is a considerable network evolving mechanism for the formation of complex networks.

  8. Support vector machine based estimation of remaining useful life: current research status and future trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Hong Zhong; Wang, Hai Kun; Li, Yan Feng; Zhang, Longlong; Liu, Zhiliang [University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu (China)

    2015-01-15

    Estimation of remaining useful life (RUL) is helpful to manage life cycles of machines and to reduce maintenance cost. Support vector machine (SVM) is a promising algorithm for estimation of RUL because it can easily process small training sets and multi-dimensional data. Many SVM based methods have been proposed to predict RUL of some key components. We did a literature review related to SVM based RUL estimation within a decade. The references reviewed are classified into two categories: improved SVM algorithms and their applications to RUL estimation. The latter category can be further divided into two types: one, to predict the condition state in the future and then build a relationship between state and RUL; two, to establish a direct relationship between current state and RUL. However, SVM is seldom used to track the degradation process and build an accurate relationship between the current health condition state and RUL. Based on the above review and summary, this paper points out that the ability to continually improve SVM, and obtain a novel idea for RUL prediction using SVM will be future works.

  9. Local-prediction-based difference expansion reversible watermarking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dragoi, Ioan-Catalin; Coltuc, Dinu

    2014-04-01

    This paper investigates the use of local prediction in difference expansion reversible watermarking. For each pixel, a least square predictor is computed on a square block centered on the pixel and the corresponding prediction error is expanded. The same predictor is recovered at detection without any additional information. The proposed local prediction is general and it applies regardless of the predictor order or the prediction context. For the particular cases of least square predictors with the same context as the median edge detector, gradient-adjusted predictor or the simple rhombus neighborhood, the local prediction-based reversible watermarking clearly outperforms the state-of-the-art schemes based on the classical counterparts. Experimental results are provided.

  10. Do early-life conditions predict functional health status in adulthood? The case of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Cheng; Soldo, Beth J; Elo, Irma T

    2011-01-01

    Relatively few researchers have investigated early antecedents of adult functional limitations in developing countries. In this study, we assessed associations between childhood conditions and adult lower-body functional limitations (LBFL) as well as the potential mediating role of adult socioeconomic status, smoking, body mass index, and chronic diseases or symptoms. Based on data from the Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS) of individuals born prior to 1951 and contacted in 2001 and 2003, we found that childhood nutritional deprivation, serious health problems, and family background predict adult LBFL in Mexico. Adjustment for the potential mediators in adulthood attenuates these associations only to a modest degree.

  11. Bioregenerative life support system for a lunar base

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, H.; Wang, J.; Manukovsky, N. S.; Kovalev, V. S.; Gurevich, Yu. L.

    We have studied a modular approach to construction of bioregenerative life support system BLSS for a lunar base using soil-like substrate SLS for plant cultivation Calculations of massflow rates in BLSS were based mostly on a vegetarian diet and biological conversion of plant residues in SLS Plant candidate list for lunar BLSS includes the following basic species rice Oryza sativa soy Glycine max sweet potato Ipomoea batatas and wheat Triticum aestivum To reduce the time necessary for transition of the system to steady state we suggest that the first seeding and sprouting could be made on Earth

  12. Ground-based walking training improves quality of life and exercise capacity in COPD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wootton, Sally L; Ng, L W Cindy; McKeough, Zoe J; Jenkins, Sue; Hill, Kylie; Eastwood, Peter R; Hillman, David R; Cecins, Nola; Spencer, Lissa M; Jenkins, Christine; Alison, Jennifer A

    2014-10-01

    This study was designed to determine the effect of ground-based walking training on health-related quality of life and exercise capacity in people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). People with COPD were randomised to either a walking group that received supervised, ground-based walking training two to three times a week for 8-10 weeks, or a control group that received usual medical care and did not participate in exercise training. 130 out of 143 participants (mean±sd age 69±8 years, forced expiratory volume in 1 s 43±15% predicted) completed the study. Compared to the control group, the walking group demonstrated greater improvements in the St George's Respiratory Questionnaire total score (mean difference -6 points (95% CI -10- -2), pimproves quality of life and endurance exercise capacity in people with COPD.

  13. A critical analysis of the Mises stress criterion used in frequency domain fatigue life prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Niesłony

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Multiaxial fatigue failure criteria are formulated in time and frequency domain. The number of frequency domain criteria is rather small and the most popular one is the equivalent von Mises stress criterion. This criterion was elaborated by Preumont and Piefort on the basis of well-known von Mises stress concept, first proposed by Huber in 1907, and well accepted by the scientific community and engineers. It is important to know, that the criterion was developed to determine the yield stress and material effort under static load. Therefore the direct use of equivalent von Mises stress criterion for fatigue life prediction can lead to some incorrectness of theoretical and practical nature. In the present study four aspects were discussed: influence of the value of fatigue strength of tension and torsion, lack of parallelism of the SN curves, abnormal behaviour of the criterion under biaxial tensioncompression and influence of phase shift between particular stress state components. Information contained in this article will help to prevent improper use of this criterion and contributes to its better understanding

  14. Network Traffic Prediction based on Particle Swarm BP Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Zhu

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The traditional BP neural network algorithm has some bugs such that it is easy to fall into local minimum and the slow convergence speed. Particle swarm optimization is an evolutionary computation technology based on swarm intelligence which can not guarantee global convergence. Artificial Bee Colony algorithm is a global optimum algorithm with many advantages such as simple, convenient and strong robust. In this paper, a new BP neural network based on Artificial Bee Colony algorithm and particle swarm optimization algorithm is proposed to optimize the weight and threshold value of BP neural network. After network traffic prediction experiment, we can conclude that optimized BP network traffic prediction based on PSO-ABC has high prediction accuracy and has stable prediction performance.

  15. Health-related quality of life predicts long-term survival in patients with peripheral artery disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Issa, Samson M; Hoeks, Sanne E; Scholte op Reimer, Wilma J M;

    2010-01-01

    We examined whether health-related quality of life (HRQoL) predicts long-term survival in patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD) independent of established prognostic risk factors. In 2004, data on 711 consecutive patients with PAD undergoing vascular surgery were collected from 11 hospita...

  16. Comparison of Simple Versus Performance-Based Fall Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shekhar K. Gadkaree BS

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To compare the predictive ability of standard falls prediction models based on physical performance assessments with more parsimonious prediction models based on self-reported data. Design: We developed a series of fall prediction models progressing in complexity and compared area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC across models. Setting: National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS, which surveyed a nationally representative sample of Medicare enrollees (age ≥65 at baseline (Round 1: 2011-2012 and 1-year follow-up (Round 2: 2012-2013. Participants: In all, 6,056 community-dwelling individuals participated in Rounds 1 and 2 of NHATS. Measurements: Primary outcomes were 1-year incidence of “any fall” and “recurrent falls.” Prediction models were compared and validated in development and validation sets, respectively. Results: A prediction model that included demographic information, self-reported problems with balance and coordination, and previous fall history was the most parsimonious model that optimized AUC for both any fall (AUC = 0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI] = [0.67, 0.71] and recurrent falls (AUC = 0.77, 95% CI = [0.74, 0.79] in the development set. Physical performance testing provided a marginal additional predictive value. Conclusion: A simple clinical prediction model that does not include physical performance testing could facilitate routine, widespread falls risk screening in the ambulatory care setting.

  17. A Human Life-Stage Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Model for Chlorpyrifos: Development and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Jordan N.; Hinderliter, Paul M.; Timchalk, Charles; Bartels, M. J.; Poet, Torka S.

    2014-08-01

    Sensitivity to chemicals in animals and humans are known to vary with age. Age-related changes in sensitivity to chlorpyrifos have been reported in animal models. A life-stage physiologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) model was developed to computationally predict disposition of CPF and its metabolites, chlorpyrifos-oxon (the ultimate toxicant) and 3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinol (TCPy), as well as B-esterase inhibition by chlorpyrifos-oxon in humans. In this model, age-dependent body weight was calculated from a generalized Gompertz function, and compartments (liver, brain, fat, blood, diaphragm, rapid, and slow) were scaled based on body weight from polynomial functions on a fractional body weight basis. Blood flows among compartments were calculated as a constant flow per compartment volume. The life-stage PBPK/PD model was calibrated and tested against controlled adult human exposure studies. Model simulations suggest age-dependent pharmacokinetics and response may exist. At oral doses ≥ 0.55 mg/kg of chlorpyrifos (significantly higher than environmental exposure levels), 6 mo old children are predicted to have higher levels of chlorpyrifos-oxon in blood and higher levels of red blood cell cholinesterase inhibition compared to adults from equivalent oral doses of chlorpyrifos. At lower doses that are more relevant to environmental exposures, the model predicts that adults will have slightly higher levels of chlorpyrifos-oxon in blood and greater cholinesterase inhibition. This model provides a computational framework for age-comparative simulations that can be utilized to predict CPF disposition and biological response over various postnatal life-stages.

  18. A Modified Fatigue Damage Model for High-Cycle Fatigue Life Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the assumption of quasibrittle failure under high-cycle fatigue for the metal material, the damage constitutive equation and the modified damage evolution equation are obtained with continuum damage mechanics. Then, finite element method (FEM is used to describe the failure process of metal material. The increment of specimen’s life and damage state can be researched using damage mechanics-FEM. Finally, the lifetime of the specimen is got at the given stress level. The damage mechanics-FEM is inserted into ABAQUS with subroutine USDFLD and the Python language is used to simulate the fatigue process of titanium alloy specimens. The simulation results have a good agreement with the testing results under constant amplitude loading, which proves the accuracy of the method.

  19. A criterion for high-cycle fatigue life and fatigue limit prediction in biaxial loading conditions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ukasz Pejkowski; Dariusz Skibicki

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a criterion for high-cycle fatigue life and fatigue strength estimation under periodic proportional and non-proportional cyclic loading. The cri-terion is based on the mean and maximum values of the second invariant of the stress deviator. Important elements of the criterion are: function of the non-proportionality of fatigue loading and the materials parameter that expresses the materials sensitivity to non-proportional loading. The methods for the materials parameters determination uses three S–N curves: tension–compression, torsion, and any non-proportional loading proposed. The criterion has been verified using experimental data, and the results are included in the paper. These results should be considered as promis-ing. The paper also includes a proposal for multiaxial fatigue models classification due to the approach for the non-proportionality of loading.

  20. Epitope prediction based on random peptide library screening: benchmark dataset and prediction tools evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Pingping; Chen, Wenhan; Huang, Yanxin; Wang, Hongyan; Ma, Zhiqiang; Lv, Yinghua

    2011-06-16

    Epitope prediction based on random peptide library screening has become a focus as a promising method in immunoinformatics research. Some novel software and web-based servers have been proposed in recent years and have succeeded in given test cases. However, since the number of available mimotopes with the relevant structure of template-target complex is limited, a systematic evaluation of these methods is still absent. In this study, a new benchmark dataset was defined. Using this benchmark dataset and a representative dataset, five examples of the most popular epitope prediction software products which are based on random peptide library screening have been evaluated. Using the benchmark dataset, in no method did performance exceed a 0.42 precision and 0.37 sensitivity, and the MCC scores suggest that the epitope prediction results of these software programs are greater than random prediction about 0.09-0.13; while using the representative dataset, most of the values of these performance measures are slightly improved, but the overall performance is still not satisfactory. Many test cases in the benchmark dataset cannot be applied to these pieces of software due to software limitations. Moreover chances are that these software products are overfitted to the small dataset and will fail in other cases. Therefore finding the correlation between mimotopes and genuine epitope residues is still far from resolved and much larger dataset for mimotope-based epitope prediction is desirable.

  1. Epitope Prediction Based on Random Peptide Library Screening: Benchmark Dataset and Prediction Tools Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanxin Huang

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Epitope prediction based on random peptide library screening has become a focus as a promising method in immunoinformatics research. Some novel software and web-based servers have been proposed in recent years and have succeeded in given test cases. However, since the number of available mimotopes with the relevant structure of template-target complex is limited, a systematic evaluation of these methods is still absent. In this study, a new benchmark dataset was defined. Using this benchmark dataset and a representative dataset, five examples of the most popular epitope prediction software products which are based on random peptide library screening have been evaluated. Using the benchmark dataset, in no method did performance exceed a 0.42 precision and 0.37 sensitivity, and the MCC scores suggest that the epitope prediction results of these software programs are greater than random prediction about 0.09–0.13; while using the representative dataset, most of the values of these performance measures are slightly improved, but the overall performance is still not satisfactory. Many test cases in the benchmark dataset cannot be applied to these pieces of software due to software limitations. Moreover chances are that these software products are overfitted to the small dataset and will fail in other cases. Therefore finding the correlation between mimotopes and genuine epitope residues is still far from resolved and much larger dataset for mimotope-based epitope prediction is desirable.

  2. Development of a Novel Approach for Fatigue Life Prediction of Structural Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-12-01

    11] for Inconel 718 under a similar loading condition. A kink around a fatigue life of 3xl05 cycles was noticed in the shear strain-life curve from...observed on AISI 304 stainless steel [10], Inconel 718 [11], 1045 steel [12], and an aluminum alloy [13]. However, no kink in the strain-life curves

  3. Prediction of low-cycle fatigue-life by acoustic emission—1: 2024-T3 aluminum alloy, and —2: 7075-T6 aluminum alloy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baram, J. [Ben-Gurion Univ. of the Negev, Beer Sheva (Israel). Materials Engineering Division; Rosen, M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Materials and Molecular Research Division

    1981-01-01

    1: In this paper, low-cycle fatigue tests were conducted by tension-tension until rupture, on a 2024-T3 aluminum alloy sheet. Initial crack sizes and orientations in the fatigue specimens were found to be randomly distributed. Acoustic emission was continuously monitored during the tests. Every few hundred cycles, the acoustic signal having the highest peak-amplitude, was recorded as an extremal event for the elapsed period. This high peak-amplitude is related to a fast crack propagation rate through a phenomenological relationship. The extremal peak amplitudes are shown by an ordered statistics treatment, to be extremally distributed. The statistical treatment enables the prediction of the number of cycles left until failure. Predictions performed a posteriori based on results gained early in each fatigue test are in good agreement with actual fatigue lives. Finally, the amplitude distribution analysis of the acoustic signals emitted during cyclic stress appears to be a promising nondestructive method of predicting fatigue life. 2: In this paper, low cycle high stress fatigue tests were conducted by tension-tension on an Alclad 7075-T6 aluminum sheet alloy, until rupture. Initial crack sizes and orientations in the fatigue specimens were randomly distributed. Acoustic emission was continuously monitored during the tests. Extremal peak-amplitudes, equivalent to extremal crack-propagation rates, are shown to be extremally Weibull distributed. The prediction of the number of cycles left until failure is made possible, using an ordered statistics treatment and an experimental equipment parameter obtained in previous experiments (Part 1). The predicted life-times are in good agreement with the actual fatigue lives. Finally, the amplitude distribution analysis of the acoustic signals emitted during cyclic stress has been proven to be a feasible nondestructive method of predicting fatigue life.

  4. Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pearson, R. G.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Bastos Araujo, Miguel;

    2006-01-01

    Aim Many attempts to predict the potential range of species rely on environmental niche (or 'bioclimate envelope') modelling, yet the effects of using different niche-based methodologies require further investigation. Here we investigate the impact that the choice of model can have on predictions...... day (using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and kappa statistics) and by assessing consistency in predictions of range size changes under future climate (using cluster analysis). Results Our analyses show significant differences between predictions from different models......, with predicted changes in range size by 2030 differing in both magnitude and direction (e.g. from 92% loss to 322% gain). We explain differences with reference to two characteristics of the modelling techniques: data input requirements (presence/absence vs. presence-only approaches) and assumptions made by each...

  5. Traffic Prediction Scheme based on Chaotic Models in Wireless Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangrong Feng

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Based on the local support vector algorithm of chaotic time series analysis, the Hannan-Quinn information criterion and SAX symbolization are introduced. Then a novel prediction algorithm is proposed, which is successfully applied to the prediction of wireless network traffic. For the correct prediction problems of short-term flow with smaller data set size, the weakness of the algorithms during model construction is analyzed by study and comparison to LDK prediction algorithm. It is verified the Hannan-Quinn information principle can be used to calculate the number of neighbor points to replace pervious empirical method, which uses the number of neighbor points to acquire more accurate prediction model. Finally, actual flow data is applied to confirm the accuracy rate of the proposed algorithm LSDHQ. It is testified by our experiments that it also has higher performance in adaptability than that of LSDHQ algorithm.

  6. Noncausal spatial prediction filtering based on an ARMA model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Zhipeng; Chen Xiaohong; Li Jingye

    2009-01-01

    Conventional f-x prediction filtering methods are based on an autoregressive model. The error section is first computed as a source noise but is removed as additive noise to obtain the signal, which results in an assumption inconsistency before and after filtering. In this paper, an autoregressive, moving-average model is employed to avoid the model inconsistency. Based on the ARMA model, a noncasual prediction filter is computed and a self-deconvolved projection filter is used for estimating additive noise in order to suppress random noise. The 1-D ARMA model is also extended to the 2-D spatial domain, which is the basis for noncasual spatial prediction filtering for random noise attenuation on 3-D seismic data. Synthetic and field data processing indicate this method can suppress random noise more effectively and preserve the signal simultaneously and does much better than other conventional prediction filtering methods.

  7. An IoT Based Predictive Connected Car Maintenance Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rohit Dhall

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Internet of Things (IoT is fast emerging and becoming an almost basic necessity in general life. The concepts of using technology in our daily life is not new, but with the advancements in technology, the impact of technology in daily activities of a person can be seen in almost all the aspects of life. Today, all aspects of our daily life, be it health of a person, his location, movement, etc. can be monitored and analyzed using information captured from various connected devices. This paper discusses one such use case, which can be implemented by the automobile industry, using technological advancements in the areas of IoT and Analytics. ‘Connected Car’ is a terminology, often associated with cars and other passenger vehicles, which are capable of internet connectivity and sharing of various kinds of data with backend applications. The data being shared can be about the location and speed of the car, status of various parts/lubricants of the car, and if the car needs urgent service or not. Once data are transmitted to the backend services, various workflows can be created to take necessary actions, e.g. scheduling a service with the car service provider, or if large numbers of care are in the same location, then the traffic management system can take necessary action. ’Connected cars’ can also communicate with each other, and can send alerts to each other in certain scenarios like possible crash etc. This paper talks about how the concept of ‘connected cars’ can be used to perform ‘predictive car maintenance’. It also discusses how certain technology components, i.e., Eclipse Mosquito and Eclipse Paho can be used to implement a predictive connected car use case.

  8. CMC Property Variability and Life Prediction Methods for Turbine Engine Component Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheplak, Matthew L.

    2004-01-01

    The ever increasing need for lower density and higher temperature-capable materials for aircraft engines has led to the development of Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMCs). Today's aircraft engines operate with >3000"F gas temperatures at the entrance to the turbine section, but unless heavily cooled, metallic components cannot operate above approx.2000 F. CMCs attempt to push component capability to nearly 2700 F with much less cooling, which can help improve engine efficiency and performance in terms of better fuel efficiency, higher thrust, and reduced emissions. The NASA Glenn Research Center has been researching the benefits of the SiC/SiC CMC for engine applications. A CMC is made up of a matrix material, fibers, and an interphase, which is a protective coating over the fibers. There are several methods or architectures in which the orientation of the fibers can be manipulated to achieve a particular material property objective as well as a particular component geometric shape and size. The required shape manipulation can be a limiting factor in the design and performance of the component if there is a lack of bending capability of the fiber as making the fiber more flexible typically sacrifices strength and other fiber properties. Various analysis codes are available (pcGINA, CEMCAN) that can predict the effective Young's Moduli, thermal conductivities, coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE), and various other properties of a CMC. There are also various analysis codes (NASAlife) that can be used to predict the life of CMCs under expected engine service conditions. The objective of this summer study is to utilize and optimize these codes for examining the tradeoffs between CMC properties and the complex fiber architectures that will be needed for several different component designs. For example, for the pcGINA code, there are six variations of architecture available. Depending on which architecture is analyzed, the user is able to specify the fiber tow size, tow

  9. LS-SVR and AGO Based Time Series Prediction Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Shou-peng; LIU Shan; CHAI Wang-xu; ZHANG Jia-qi; GUO Yang-ming

    2016-01-01

    Recently , fault or health condition prediction of complex systems becomes an interesting research topic.However, it is difficult to establish precise physical model for complex systems , and the time series properties are often necessary to be incorporated for the prediction in practice .Currently ,the LS -SVR is widely adopted for prediction of systems with time series data .In this paper , in order to improve the prediction accuracy, accumulated generating operation (AGO) is carried out to improve the data quality and regularity of raw time series data based on grey system theory;then, the inverse accumulated generating operation ( IAGO) is performed to obtain the prediction results .In addition , due to the reason that appropriate kernel function plays an important role in improving the accuracy of prediction through LS-SVR, a modified Gaussian radial basis function (RBF) is proposed.The requirements of distance functions-based kernel functions are satisfied , which ensure fast damping at the place adjacent to the test point and a moderate damping at infinity .The presented model is applied to the analysis of benchmarks .As indicated by the results , the proposed method is an effective prediction one with good precision .

  10. Disaster prediction of coal mine gas based on data mining

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHAO Liang-shan; FU Gui-xiang

    2008-01-01

    The technique of data mining was provided to predict gas disaster in view of thecharacteristics of coal mine gas disaster and feature knowledge based on gas disaster.The rough set theory was used to establish data mining model of gas disaster prediction,and rough set attributes relations was discussed in prediction model of gas disaster tosupplement the shortages of rough intensive reduction method by using information en-tropy criteria. The effectiveness and practicality of data mining technology in the predictionof gas disaster is confirmed through practical application.

  11. Endometrial cancer risk prediction including serum-based biomarkers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fortner, Renée T; Hüsing, Anika; Kühn, Tilman;

    2017-01-01

    Endometrial cancer risk prediction models including lifestyle, anthropometric, and reproductive factors have limited discrimination. Adding biomarker data to these models may improve predictive capacity; to our knowledge, this has not been investigated for endometrial cancer. Using a nested case......-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, we investigated the improvement in discrimination gained by adding serum biomarker concentrations to risk estimates derived from an existing risk prediction model based on epidemiologic factors. Serum...... concentrations of sex steroid hormones, metabolic markers, growth factors, adipokines, and cytokines were evaluated in a step-wise backward selection process; biomarkers were retained at pdiscrimination was assessed using...

  12. Quality of life predicts outcome in a heart failure disease management program.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Loughlin, Christina

    2012-02-01

    BACKGROUND: Chronic heart failure (HF) is associated with a poor Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL). HRQoL has been shown to be a predictor of HF outcomes however, variability in the study designs make it difficult to apply these findings to a clinical setting. The aim of this study was to establish if HRQoL is a predictor of long-term mortality and morbidity in HF patients followed-up in a disease management program (DMP) and if a HRQoL instrument could be applied to aid in identifying high-risk patients within a clinical context. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of HF patients attending a DMP with 18+\\/-9 months follow-up. Clinical and biochemical parameters were recorded on discharge from index HF admission and HRQoL measures were recorded at 2 weeks post index admission. RESULTS: 225 patients were enrolled into the study (mean age=69+\\/-12 years, male=61%, and 78%=systolic HF). In multivariable analysis, all dimensions of HRQoL (measured by the Minnesota Living with HF Questionnaire) were independent predictors of both mortality and readmissions particularly in patients <80 years. A significant interaction between HRQoL and age (Total((HRQoL))age: p<0.001) indicated that the association of HRQoL with outcomes diminished as age increased. CONCLUSIONS: These data demonstrate that HRQoL is a predictor of outcome in HF patients managed in a DMP. Younger patients (<65 years) with a Total HRQoL score of > or =50 are at high risk of an adverse outcome. In older patients > or =80 years HRQoL is not useful in predicting outcome.

  13. Does maternal oral health predict child oral health-related quality of life in adulthood?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Broadbent Jonathan M

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A parental/family history of poor oral health may influence the oral-health-related quality of life (OHRQOL of adults. Objectives To determine whether the oral health of mothers of young children can predict the OHRQOL of those same children when they reach adulthood. Methods Oral examination and interview data from the Dunedin Study's age-32 assessment, as well as maternal self-rated oral health data from the age-5 assessment were used. The main outcome measure was study members' short-form Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP-14 at age 32. Analyses involved 827 individuals (81.5% of the surviving cohort dentally examined at both ages, who also completed the OHIP-14 questionnaire at age 32, and whose mothers were interviewed at the age-5 assessment. Results There was a consistent gradient of relative risk across the categories of maternal self-rated oral health status at the age-5 assessment for having one or more impacts in the overall OHIP-14 scale, whereby risk was greatest among the study members whose mothers rated their oral health as "poor/edentulous", and lowest among those with an "excellent/fairly good" rating. In addition, there was a gradient in the age-32 mean OHIP-14 score, and in the mean number of OHIP-14 impacts at age 32 across the categories of maternal self-rated oral health status. The higher risk of having one or more impacts in the psychological discomfort subscale, when mother rated her oral health as "poor/edentulous", was statistically significant. Conclusions These data suggest that maternal self-rated oral health when a child is young has a bearing on that child's OHRQOL almost three decades later. The adult offspring of mothers with poor self-rated oral health had poorer OHRQOL outcomes, particularly in the psychological discomfort subscale.

  14. Integrated Software Architecture-Based Reliability Prediction for IT Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Brosch, Franz

    2012-01-01

    With the increasing importance of reliability in business and industrial IT systems, new techniques for architecture-based software reliability prediction are becoming an integral part of the development process. This dissertation thesis introduces a novel reliability modelling and prediction technique that considers the software architecture with its component structure, control and data flow, recovery mechanisms, its deployment to distributed hardware resources and the system´s usage p...

  15. Cloud Based Metalearning System for Predictive Modeling of Biomedical Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Vukićević

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Rapid growth and storage of biomedical data enabled many opportunities for predictive modeling and improvement of healthcare processes. On the other side analysis of such large amounts of data is a difficult and computationally intensive task for most existing data mining algorithms. This problem is addressed by proposing a cloud based system that integrates metalearning framework for ranking and selection of best predictive algorithms for data at hand and open source big data technologies for analysis of biomedical data.

  16. Accurate Multisteps Traffic Flow Prediction Based on SVM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Mingheng

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate traffic flow prediction is prerequisite and important for realizing intelligent traffic control and guidance, and it is also the objective requirement for intelligent traffic management. Due to the strong nonlinear, stochastic, time-varying characteristics of urban transport system, artificial intelligence methods such as support vector machine (SVM are now receiving more and more attentions in this research field. Compared with the traditional single-step prediction method, the multisteps prediction has the ability that can predict the traffic state trends over a certain period in the future. From the perspective of dynamic decision, it is far important than the current traffic condition obtained. Thus, in this paper, an accurate multi-steps traffic flow prediction model based on SVM was proposed. In which, the input vectors were comprised of actual traffic volume and four different types of input vectors were compared to verify their prediction performance with each other. Finally, the model was verified with actual data in the empirical analysis phase and the test results showed that the proposed SVM model had a good ability for traffic flow prediction and the SVM-HPT model outperformed the other three models for prediction.

  17. Feature Fusion Based SVM Classifier for Protein Subcellular Localization Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Julia; Mondal, Md Nazrul Islam; Islam, Md Khaled Ben; Hasan, Md Al Mehedi

    2016-12-18

    For the importance of protein subcellular localization in different branches of life science and drug discovery, researchers have focused their attentions on protein subcellular localization prediction. Effective representation of features from protein sequences plays a most vital role in protein subcellular localization prediction specially in case of machine learning techniques. Single feature representation-like pseudo amino acid composition (PseAAC), physiochemical property models (PPM), and amino acid index distribution (AAID) contains insufficient information from protein sequences. To deal with such problems, we have proposed two feature fusion representations, AAIDPAAC and PPMPAAC, to work with Support Vector Machine classifiers, which fused PseAAC with PPM and AAID accordingly. We have evaluated the performance for both single and fused feature representation of a Gram-negative bacterial dataset. We have got at least 3% more actual accuracy by AAIDPAAC and 2% more locative accuracy by PPMPAAC than single feature representation.

  18. Predicting quality of life in multiple sclerosis: accounting for physical disability, fatigue, cognition, mood disorder, personality, and behavior change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedict, Ralph H B; Wahlig, Elizabeth; Bakshi, Rohit; Fishman, Inna; Munschauer, Frederick; Zivadinov, Robert; Weinstock-Guttman, Bianca

    2005-04-15

    Health-related quality of life (HQOL) is poor in multiple sclerosis (MS) but the clinical precipitants of the problem are not well understood. Previous correlative studies demonstrated relationships between various clinical parameters and diminished HQOL in MS. Unfortunately, these studies failed to account for multiple predictors in the same analysis. We endeavored to determine what clinical parameters account for most variance in predicting HQOL, and employability, while accounting for disease course, physical disability, fatigue, cognition, mood disorder, personality, and behavior disorder. In 120 MS patients, we measured HQOL (MS Quality of Life-54) and vocational status (employed vs. disabled) and then conducted detailed clinical testing. Data were analyzed by linear and logistic regression methods. MS patients reported lower HQOL (pPhysical HQOL was predicted by fatigue, depression, and physical disability. Mental HQOL was associated with only depression and fatigue. In contrast, vocational status was predicted by three cognitive tests, conscientiousness, and disease duration (p<0.05). Thus, for the first time, we predicted HQOL in MS while accounting for measures from these many clinical domains. We conclude that self-report HQOL indices are most strongly predicted by measures of depression, whereas vocational status is predicted primarily by objective measures of cognitive function. The findings highlight core clinical problems that merit early identification and further research regarding the development of effective treatment.

  19. Interior Fracture Mechanism Analysis and Fatigue Life Prediction of Surface-Hardened Gear Steel under Axial Loading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Li

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The interior defect-induced fracture of surface-hardened metallic materials in the long life region has become a key issue on engineering design. In the present study, the axial loading test with fully reversed condition was performed to examine the fatigue property of a surface-carburized low alloy gear steel in the long life region. Results show that this steel represents the duplex S-N (stress-number of cycles characteristics without conventional fatigue limit related to 107 cycles. Fatigue cracks are all originated from the interior inclusions in the matrix region due to the inhabitation effect of carburized layer. The inclusion induced fracture with fisheye occurs in the short life region below 5 × 105 cycles, whereas the inclusion induced fracture with fine granular area (FGA and fisheye occurs in the long life region beyond 106 cycles. The stress intensity factor range at the front of FGA can be regarded as the threshold value controlling stable growth of interior long crack. The evaluated maximum inclusion size in the effective damage volume of specimen is about 27.29 μm. Considering the size relationships between fisheye and FGA, and inclusion, the developed life prediction method involving crack growth can be acceptable on the basis of the good agreement between the predicted and experimental results.

  20. The role of brain/behavioural systems in prediction of quality of life and coping strategies in cancer patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shala Jangi Goujeh Biglou

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: It seems that individual differences in personality characteristics are implicated in the incidence and progress of physical diseases and socio-psychological consequences. However, there are a few studies about the role of personality in the prediction of socio-psychological consequences of cancer. The aim of this research was to survey the role of personality in the prediction of socio-psychosocial factors: quality of life and coping strategies. Methods: This research was a descriptive-correlational study in which the sample included fifty cancer patients who were selected through convenience sampling method. To assess the personality differences, quality of life and coping strategies, the Carver and White (1994 BIS/BAS Scales, SF-12 Health Survey and Coping Inventory for Stressful Situation (CISS were used, respectively. The data were analysed by SPSS software using Pearson correlation coefficient and stepwise regression. Results: The findings showed that Both BIS and BAS systems could predict the quality of life (P<0.001, BIS system could explain the emotion-oriented coping strategy (P<0.05 and avoidance-oriented coping stratesy (P<0.01 and BAS system could explain the problem-oriented coping strategy (P<0.001. Conclusion: The findings of this study showed that brain/behavioural systems can predict the quality of life and coping strategies in cancer patients. The identification of these systems in cancer patients can help recognize the persons that are under the risk of poor quality of life or have a higher chance of using inconsistent coping strategies, and execute preventive measures about them.

  1. Synthetic information prediction system for crisis mine based on GIS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yuxin Ye; Ping Yu; Shi Wang; Shuisheng Ye

    2006-01-01

    Reserves of some kinds of the crisis mines will be lack now or from now on, because of lacking seriously reserves of mineral resources and the crisis of exploring bases in support. So that it is urgent to predict, appraise, development and utilize the replaceable resources of the crisis mines. The mineral resources prediction software system of synthetic information is intelligent GIS which is used to quantitative prediction of large-scale synthetic information mineral target. It takes the geological body and the mineral resource body as a unit. And it analyzes the ore deposit genesis and metallotect, knows the spatial distribution laws of the ore deposit and ore body, and establish the prospecting model based on the concept of establishing the three-dimensional space of a mine. This paper will primarily discuss some important problems as follows: the secondary development of various kinds of data(including geology, geophysical prospecting, geochemical prospecting and remote sensing, etc); process synthetically and establish the synthetic information interpretative map base; correspond prospecting model with synthetic information of ore deposit; divided into statistical units of metallogenic information synthetic anomalies based on the synthetic information anomalies of ore control, then research the metallogenic information variable of unit synthetically and make quantitative prediction according to choose the quantitative prediction math model which is suitable to the demands of large-scale precision; at last, finish the target area optimization of ore deposit (body).

  2. Decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall using dynamics-based indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otero, Noelia; Mohino, Elsa; Gaetani, Marco

    2016-12-01

    At decadal time scales, the capability of state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean coupled climate models in predicting the precipitation in Sahel is assessed. A set of 14 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) is selected and two experiments are analysed, namely initialized decadal hindcasts and forced historical simulations. Considering the strong linkage of the atmospheric circulation signatures over West Africa with the rainfall variability, this study aims to investigate the potential of using wind fields for decadal predictions. Namely, a West African monsoon index (WAMI) is defined, based on the coherence of low (925 hPa) and high (200 hPa) troposphere wind fields, which accounts for the intensity of the monsoonal circulation. A combined empirical orthogonal functions analysis is applied to explore the wind fields' covariance modes, and a set of indices is defined on the basis of the identified patterns. The WAMI predictive skill is assessed by comparing WAMI from coupled models with WAMI from reanalysis products and with a standardized precipitation index (SPI) from observations. Results suggest that the predictive skill is highly model dependent and it is strongly related to the WAMI definition. In addition, hindcasts are more skilful than historical simulations in both deterministic and probability forecasts, which suggests an added value of initialization for decadal predictability. Moreover, coupled models are more skilful in predicting the observed SPI than the WAMI obtained from reanalysis. WAMI performance is also compared with decadal predictions from CMIP5 models based on a Sahelian precipitation index, and an improvement in predictive skill is observed in some models when WAMI is used. Therefore, we conclude that dynamics-based indices are potentially more effective for decadal prediction of precipitation in Sahel than precipitation-based indices for those models in which Sahel rainfall variability is not well

  3. A Multiaxial Low Cycle Fatigue Life Prediction Model for Both Proportional and Non-proportional Loading Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Surajit Kumar

    2014-09-01

    This paper has presented a life prediction model in the field of multiaxial low-cycle fatigue. The proposed model is generally applied for constant amplitude multiaxial proportional and non-proportional loading. Depending upon applied strain path the equivalent strain varies within a cycle. Equivalent average strain amplitude is considered as fatigue damage parameter in the proposed model. The model has requirement of only two material constants and no other tuning parameters. The model is examined by the proportional and non-proportional low-cycle fatigue life experimental data for eight different types of materials. The model is successfully correlated with multiaxial fatigue lives of eight different materials.

  4. Self-compassion directly and indirectly predicts dietary adherence and quality of life among adults with celiac disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowd, A Justine; Jung, Mary E

    2017-06-01

    Strict adherence to a gluten-free diet (GFD) is the only treatment for preventing both short- and long-term consequences of celiac disease. Given that following a strict GFD can be difficult, evidence-based strategies are needed to improve the psychological experience of living with celiac disease and following the GFD. Self-compassion appears to be an important component of effectively self-regulating one's behavior to cope with a chronic disease. The main goal of this study was to examine the relationships between self-compassion and management of celiac disease as assessed by (a) adherence to a strict GFD and (b) celiac-specific quality of life (CQoL). The secondary goal of this study was to explore self-regulatory efficacy (i.e., confidence in one's ability to self-manage behavior to follow a strict GFD) and concurrent self-regulatory efficacy (i.e., one's confidence to self-manage other valued life goals while following a strict GFD) as mediators of the relationship between self-compassion and the primary outcomes (adherence and CQoL). In this prospective study, 200 North American adults diagnosed with celiac disease completed online questionnaires at two time points (baseline and 1 month later). Self-compassion at baseline directly predicted stricter adherence (at Time 2; b = -0.63, p = 0.006) and enhanced CQoL (at Time 2; b = -0.50, p = 0.001). Further, self-compassion (at Time 1) also indirectly predicted stricter Time 2 adherence through self-regulatory efficacy (at Time 1; b = -0.26, 95% CI [-0.58, -0.04], R(2) = 0.29) and enhanced Time 2 CQoL through concurrent self-regulatory efficacy (at Time 1; b = -0.07, 95% CI [-0.14, -0.03], R(2) = 0.33). This was the first study to assess the effects of self-compassion in relation to the psychological experience of coping with celiac disease and following a GFD. The findings indicate that self-compassion, self-regulatory efficacy and concurrent self-regulatory efficacy are important cognitions in

  5. Fatigue Life Prediction of Fiber-Reinforced Ceramic-Matrix Composites with Different Fiber Preforms at Room and Elevated Temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Longbiao Li

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the fatigue life of fiber-reinforced ceramic-matrix composites (CMCs with different fiber preforms, i.e., unidirectional, cross-ply, 2D (two dimensional, 2.5D and 3D CMCs at room and elevated temperatures in air and oxidative environments, has been predicted using the micromechanics approach. An effective coefficient of the fiber volume fraction along the loading direction (ECFL was introduced to describe the fiber architecture of preforms. The statistical matrix multicracking model and fracture mechanics interface debonding criterion were used to determine the matrix crack spacing and interface debonded length. Under cyclic fatigue loading, the fiber broken fraction was determined by combining the interface wear model and fiber statistical failure model at room temperature, and interface/fiber oxidation model, interface wear model and fiber statistical failure model at elevated temperatures, based on the assumption that the fiber strength is subjected to two-parameter Weibull distribution and the load carried by broken and intact fibers satisfies the Global Load Sharing (GLS criterion. When the broken fiber fraction approaches the critical value, the composites fatigue fracture.

  6. Are Macro variables good predictors? A prediction based on the number of total medals acquired

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahram Shafiee

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A large amount of effort is spent on forecasting the outcome of sporting events. Moreover, there are large quantities of data regarding the outcomes of sporting events and the factors which are assumed to contribute to those outcomes. In this paper we tried to predict the success of nations at the Asian Games through macro-economic, political, social and cultural variables. we used the information of variables include urban population, Education Expenditures, Age Structure, GDP Real Growth Rate, GDP Per Capita, Unemployment Rate, Population, Inflation Average, current account balance, life expectancy at birth and Merchandise Trade for all of the participating countries in Asian Games from 1970 to 2006 in order to build the model and then this model was tested by the information of variables in 2010. The prediction is based on the number of total medals acquired each country. In this research we used WEKA software that is a popular suite of machine learning software written in Java. The value of correlation coefficient between the predicted and original ranks is 90.42%. Neural Network Model, between 28 countries mentioned, predicts their ranks according to the maximum difference between predicted and original ranks of 19 countries (67.85% is 3, the maximum difference between predicted and original ranks of 8 countries (28.57% is between 4 to 6 and the difference between predicted and original ranks of 1 countries (3.57% is more than 6.

  7. Signature prediction for model-based automatic target recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keydel, Eric R.; Lee, Shung W.

    1996-06-01

    The moving and stationary target recognition (MSTAR) model- based automatic target recognition (ATR) system utilizes a paradigm which matches features extracted form an unknown SAR target signature against predictions of those features generated from models of the sensing process and candidate target geometries. The candidate target geometry yielding the best match between predicted and extracted features defines the identify of the unknown target. MSTAR will extend the current model-based ATR state-of-the-art in a number of significant directions. These include: use of Bayesian techniques for evidence accrual, reasoning over target subparts, coarse-to-fine hypothesis search strategies, and explicit reasoning over target articulation, configuration, occlusion, and lay-over. These advances also imply significant technical challenges, particularly for the MSTAR feature prediction module (MPM). In addition to accurate electromagnetics, the MPM must provide traceback between input target geometry and output features, on-line target geometry manipulation, target subpart feature prediction, explicit models for local scene effects, and generation of sensitivity and uncertainty measures for the predicted features. This paper describes the MPM design which is being developed to satisfy these requirements. The overall module structure is presented, along with the specific deign elements focused on MSTAR requirements. Particular attention is paid to design elements that enable on-line prediction of features within the time constraints mandated by model-driven ATR. Finally, the current status, development schedule, and further extensions in the module design are described.

  8. [Predicting suicide or predicting the unpredictable in an uncertain world: Reinforcement Learning Model-Based analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desseilles, Martin

    2012-01-01

    In general, it appears that the suicidal act is highly unpredictable with the current scientific means available. In this article, the author submits the hypothesis that predicting suicide is complex because it results in predicting a choice, in itself unpredictable. The article proposes a Reinforcement learning model-based analysis. In this model, we integrate on the one hand, four ascending modulatory neurotransmitter systems (acetylcholine, noradrenalin, serotonin, and dopamine) with their regions of respective projections and afferences, and on the other hand, various observations of brain imaging identified until now in the suicidal process.

  9. Multi-Objective Predictive Balancing Control of Battery Packs Based on Predictive Current

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenbiao Li

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Various balancing topology and control methods have been proposed for the inconsistency problem of battery packs. However, these strategies only focus on a single objective, ignore the mutual interaction among various factors and are only based on the external performance of the battery pack inconsistency, such as voltage balancing and state of charge (SOC balancing. To solve these problems, multi-objective predictive balancing control (MOPBC based on predictive current is proposed in this paper, namely, in the driving process of an electric vehicle, using predictive control to predict the battery pack output current the next time. Based on this information, the impact of the battery pack temperature caused by the output current can be obtained. Then, the influence is added to the battery pack balancing control, which makes the present degradation, temperature, and SOC imbalance achieve balance automatically due to the change of the output current the next moment. According to MOPBC, the simulation model of the balancing circuit is built with four cells in Matlab/Simulink. The simulation results show that MOPBC is not only better than the other traditional balancing control strategies but also reduces the energy loss in the balancing process.

  10. Estimating Stochastic Volatility Models using Prediction-based Estimating Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lunde, Asger; Brix, Anne Floor

    In this paper prediction-based estimating functions (PBEFs), introduced in Sørensen (2000), are reviewed and PBEFs for the Heston (1993) stochastic volatility model are derived. The finite sample performance of the PBEF based estimator is investigated in a Monte Carlo study, and compared to the p......In this paper prediction-based estimating functions (PBEFs), introduced in Sørensen (2000), are reviewed and PBEFs for the Heston (1993) stochastic volatility model are derived. The finite sample performance of the PBEF based estimator is investigated in a Monte Carlo study, and compared...... to the performance of the GMM estimator based on conditional moments of integrated volatility from Bollerslev and Zhou (2002). The case where the observed log-price process is contaminated by i.i.d. market microstructure (MMS) noise is also investigated. First, the impact of MMS noise on the parameter estimates from...

  11. Prediction on carbon dioxide emissions based on fuzzy rules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pauzi, Herrini; Abdullah, Lazim

    2014-06-01

    There are several ways to predict air quality, varying from simple regression to models based on artificial intelligence. Most of the conventional methods are not sufficiently able to provide good forecasting performances due to the problems with non-linearity uncertainty and complexity of the data. Artificial intelligence techniques are successfully used in modeling air quality in order to cope with the problems. This paper describes fuzzy inference system (FIS) to predict CO2 emissions in Malaysia. Furthermore, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is used to compare the prediction performance. Data of five variables: energy use, gross domestic product per capita, population density, combustible renewable and waste and CO2 intensity are employed in this comparative study. The results from the two model proposed are compared and it is clearly shown that the ANFIS outperforms FIS in CO2 prediction.

  12. Predicting cycle 24 using various dynamo-based tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Dikpati

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Various dynamo-based techniques have been used to predict the mean solar cycle features, namely the amplitude and the timings of onset and peak. All methods use information from previous cycles, including particularly polar fields, drift-speed of the sunspot zone to the equator, and remnant magnetic flux from the decay of active regions. Polar fields predict a low cycle 24, while spot zone migration and remnant flux both lead to predictions of a high cycle 24. These methods both predict delayed onset for cycle 24. We will describe how each of these methods relates to dynamo processes. We will present the latest results from our flux-transport dynamo, including some sensitivity tests and how our model relates to polar fields and spot zone drift methods.

  13. The effect of genealogy-based haplotypes on genomic prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edriss, Vahid; Fernando, Rohan L.; Su, Guosheng

    2013-01-01

    Background Genomic prediction uses two sources of information: linkage disequilibrium between markers and quantitative trait loci, and additive genetic relationships between individuals. One way to increase the accuracy of genomic prediction is to capture more linkage disequilibrium by regression...... on haplotypes instead of regression on individual markers. The aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of genomic prediction using haplotypes based on local genealogy information. Methods A total of 4429 Danish Holstein bulls were genotyped with the 50K SNP chip. Haplotypes were constructed using...... local genealogical trees. Effects of haplotype covariates were estimated with two types of prediction models: (1) assuming that effects had the same distribution for all haplotype covariates, i.e. the GBLUP method and (2) assuming that a large proportion (pi) of the haplotype covariates had zero effect...

  14. Generalized ESO and Predictive Control Based Robust Autopilot Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhavnesh Panchal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel continuous time predictive control and generalized extended state observer (GESO based acceleration tracking pitch autopilot design is proposed for a tail controlled, skid-to-turn tactical missile. As the dynamics of missile are significantly uncertain with mismatched uncertainty, GESO is employed to estimate the state and uncertainty in an integrated manner. The estimates are used to meet the requirement of state and to robustify the output tracking predictive controller designed for nominal system. Closed loop stability for the controller-observer structure is established. An important feature of the proposed design is that it does not require any specific information about the uncertainty. Also the predictive control design yields the feedback control gain and disturbance compensation gain simultaneously. Effectiveness of GESO in estimation of the states and uncertainties and in robustifying the predictive controller in the presence of parametric uncertainties, external disturbances, unmodeled dynamics, and measurement noise is illustrated by simulation.

  15. The Role of Social Relationships in Predicting Loneliness: The National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiovitz-Ezra, Sharon; Leitsch, Sara A.

    2010-01-01

    The authors explore associations between objective and subjective social network characteristics and loneliness in later life, using data from the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project, a nationally representative sample of individuals ages 57 to 85 in the United States. Hierarchical linear regression was used to examine the associations…

  16. Perceptual Negativity Predicts Greater Reactivity to Negative Events in Daily Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Michael D; Liu, Tianwei

    2013-11-01

    Reinforcement sensitivity theory includes the idea that people differ in their sensitivity to negative events, but relevant process-based assessments have not been developed. The present studies assessed sensitivity to negative events in terms of the extent to which negative word stimuli were perceived to be larger than neutral word stimuli. There was a general tendency to overestimate the size of negative relative to neutral words, but individuals differed substantially in this form of what is termed perceptual negativity. Of more importance, two studies (total N = 151) found systematic relationships between individual differences in perceptual negativity and reactivity to negative events in daily diary protocols. Study 1 found that within-person variations in the occurrence of daily negative events undermined goal-related optimism to a greater extent at higher, relative to lower, levels of perceptual negativity. Study 2 conceptually replicated this interaction in the context of within-person associations between the occurrence of daily negative events and antisocial behavior. These findings are important in advancing reinforcement sensitivity theory, in operationalizing a particular component of it, and in extending it to reactivity processes in daily life.

  17. Life cycle environmental impacts of wastewater-based algal biofuels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, Dongyan; Min, Min; Krohn, Brian; Mullins, Kimberley A; Ruan, Roger; Hill, Jason

    2014-10-07

    Recent research has proposed integrating wastewater treatment with algae cultivation as a way of producing algal biofuels at a commercial scale more sustainably. This study evaluates the environmental performance of wastewater-based algal biofuels with a well-to-wheel life cycle assessment (LCA). Production pathways examined include different nutrient sources (municipal wastewater influent to the activated sludge process, centrate from the sludge drying process, swine manure, and freshwater with synthetic fertilizers) combined with emerging biomass conversion technologies (microwave pyrolysis, combustion, wet lipid extraction, and hydrothermal liquefaction). Results show that the environmental performance of wastewater-based algal biofuels is generally better than freshwater-based algal biofuels, but depends on the characteristics of the wastewater and the conversion technologies. Of 16 pathways compared, only the centrate cultivation with wet lipid extraction pathway and the centrate cultivation with combustion pathway have lower impacts than petroleum diesel in all environmental categories examined (fossil fuel use, greenhouse gas emissions, eutrophication potential, and consumptive water use). The potential for large-scale implementation of centrate-based algal biofuel, however, is limited by availability of centrate. Thus, it is unlikely that algal biofuels can provide a large-scale and environmentally preferable alternative to petroleum transportation fuels without considerable improvement in current production technologies. Additionally, the cobenefit of wastewater-based algal biofuel production as an alternate means of treating various wastewaters should be further explored.

  18. Fast prediction unit selection method for HEVC intra prediction based on salient regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Lei; Dai, Ming; Zhao, Chun-lei; Xiong, Jing-ying

    2016-07-01

    In order to reduce the computational complexity of the high efficiency video coding (HEVC) standard, a new algorithm for HEVC intra prediction, namely, fast prediction unit (PU) size selection method for HEVC based on salient regions is proposed in this paper. We first build a saliency map for each largest coding unit (LCU) to reduce its texture complexity. Secondly, the optimal PU size is determined via a scheme that implements an information entropy comparison among sub-blocks of saliency maps. Finally, we apply the partitioning result of saliency map on the original LCUs, obtaining the optimal partitioning result. Our algorithm can determine the PU size in advance to the angular prediction in intra coding, reducing computational complexity of HEVC. The experimental results show that our algorithm achieves a 37.9% reduction in encoding time, while producing a negligible loss in Bjontegaard delta bit rate ( BDBR) of 0.62%.

  19. Prediction of Human Vertebral Compressive Strength Using Quantitative Computed Tomography Based Nonlinear Finite Element Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahad Zeinali

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Because of the importance of vertebral compressive fracture (VCF role in increasing the patients’ death rate and reducing their quality of life, many studies have been conducted for a noninvasive prediction of vertebral compressive strength based on bone mineral density (BMD determination and recently finite element analysis. In this study, QCT-voxel based nonlinear finite element method is used for predicting vertebral compressive strength. Material and Methods: Four thoracolumbar vertebrae were excised from 3 cadavers with an average age of 42 years. They were then put in a water phantom and were scanned using the QCT. Using a computer program prepared in MATLAB, detailed voxel based geometry and mechanical characteristics of the vertebra were extracted from the CT images. The three dimensional finite element models of the samples were created using ANSYS computer program. The compressive strength of each vertebra body was calculated based on a linearly elastic-linearly plastic model and large deformation analysis in ANSYS and was compared to the value measured experimentally for that sample. Results: Based on the obtained results the QCT-voxel based nonlinear finite element method (FEM can predict vertebral compressive strength more effectively and accurately than the common QCT-voxel based linear FEM. The difference between the predicted strength values using this method and the measured ones was less than 1 kN for all the samples. Discussion and Conclusion: It seems that the QCT-voxel based nonlinear FEM used in this study can predict more effectively and accurately the vertebral strengths based on every vertebrae specification by considering their detailed geometric and densitometric characteristics.

  20. Remaining Life Prediction Method Research of Tank Bottom Corrosion Based on Risk and Acoustic Emission Testing Data Analysis%基于风险与声发射检测数据分析的储罐底板腐蚀剩余寿命预测方法研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    戴光; 邱枫; 张颖; 赵永涛; 刘延军

    2014-01-01

    Basing on amplitude distribution theory , the statistical theory , bringing in risk concept , the acoustic emission testing and magnetic flux leakage testing data of tank bottom corrosion were comprehen -sively analysed ,and then the quantification method of the acoustic emission parameter based on the testing data of the magnetic flux leakage which was about tank bottom corrosion was got .By the analysis of 10 tanks which are in a region and the medium are crude oil , the acoustic emission typical parameters for tank bottom corrosion quantitative relationship was obtained ,the relationship of acoustic emission activity and risk corrosion rate CRP is y=13514.65x,and the evaluation accuracy of the model is 90.22%.The relationship model of true corrosion pace CTP and risk corrosion pace CRP has been established ,which is z=12.14x,the conclusion that the 12 times of the CRP is about the worst part of the tank bottom corro-sion rate was obtained .Testing the tanks which need evaluate with acoustic emission ,using the evaluation model,CRP can be got and then management corrosion rate of CMP can be got ,according to API 653-2009 ,the remaining life of tank bottom can be predicted .%基于振幅分布理论、统计理论,引入风险概念,综合分析储罐底板腐蚀的声发射检测和漏磁检测数据,得到基于漏磁检测数据的声发射参量对储罐底板腐蚀的量化方法。通过对10台样本储罐的分析,得到某一地区介质为原油的一类储罐的声发射典型参量对储罐底板腐蚀的量化关系,即声发射活度与风险腐蚀速率(CRP)的关系为y=13514.65x,该模型的评价准确率为90.22%。建立实际腐蚀速率(CTP)与CRP的关系模型,为z=12.14x,得到CRP的12倍约为储罐底板腐蚀最严重部位的腐蚀速率的结论。这样对待评估储罐进行声发射检测,利用声发射量化评价模型,可得到CRP,进而得到管理腐蚀速率(CMP),参照API 653

  1. Environmental education - an approach based on the concept of life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Fourie

    1990-10-01

    Full Text Available Environmental education is described as an enterprise aiming at a philosophy of life and therefore as a matter of life. This suggests the concept of life as a natural foundation for an approach to environmental education. Therefore a reflection on the phenomenon of life is offered in which the 'philosophy of life' or vitalist philosophy is reviewed. It is argued that life is a multi-levelled phenomenon and that a monolithic view of life is inadequate. A functional definition of life is proposed in which the microbiological description of life, its link with the abiotic aspect of reality, its other relationships and its spiritual potential are respected. This is used as the ground for an exemplary discussion of life at the levels suggested by the philosophical reflection, viz. life and the individual (which concentrates mainly on the biological aspect, life and the community (concentrating on the social aspect, life and the ecosystem (concentrating primarily on the relationship between abiotic and biotic, and life and the cosmos (which reaches the limit of the authors' task. The need for an ethic is related to these levels and the idea of responsibility is developed with recourse to ancient texts in which comparable ethical implications for the environment are contained. Finally, some practical suggestions are made for implementing the results of the argument in environmental education.

  2. Pre-processing in AI based Prediction of QSARs

    CERN Document Server

    Patri, Om Prasad

    2009-01-01

    Machine learning, data mining and artificial intelligence (AI) based methods have been used to determine the relations between chemical structure and biological activity, called quantitative structure activity relationships (QSARs) for the compounds. Pre-processing of the dataset, which includes the mapping from a large number of molecular descriptors in the original high dimensional space to a small number of components in the lower dimensional space while retaining the features of the original data, is the first step in this process. A common practice is to use a mapping method for a dataset without prior analysis. This pre-analysis has been stressed in our work by applying it to two important classes of QSAR prediction problems: drug design (predicting anti-HIV-1 activity) and predictive toxicology (estimating hepatocarcinogenicity of chemicals). We apply one linear and two nonlinear mapping methods on each of the datasets. Based on this analysis, we conclude the nature of the inherent relationships betwee...

  3. A NEW ADMISSION CONTROL APPROACH BASED ON PREDICTION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lu Kaining; Jin Zhigang; Zou Jun

    2002-01-01

    Admission control plays an important role in providing QoS to network users. Motivated by the measurement-based admission control algorithm, this letter proposed a new admission control approach for integrated service packet network based on traffic prediction. In the letter, FARIMA(p, d, q) models in the admission control algorithm is deployed. A method to simplify the FARIMA model fitting procedure and hence to reduce the time of traffic modeling and prediction is suggested. The feasibility-study experiments show that FARIMA models which have less number of parameters can be used to model and predict actual traffic on quite a large time scale. Simulation results validate the promising approach.

  4. FKBP5 genotype interacts with early life trauma to predict heavy drinking in college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lieberman, Richard; Armeli, Stephen; Scott, Denise M; Kranzler, Henry R; Tennen, Howard; Covault, Jonathan

    2016-09-01

    Alcohol use disorder (AUD) is debilitating and costly. Identification and better understanding of risk factors influencing the development of AUD remain a research priority. Although early life exposure to trauma increases the risk of adulthood psychiatric disorders, including AUD, many individuals exposed to early life trauma do not develop psychopathology. Underlying genetic factors may contribute to differential sensitivity to trauma experienced in childhood. The hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis is susceptible to long-lasting changes in function following childhood trauma. Functional genetic variation within FKBP5, a gene encoding a modulator of HPA axis function, is associated with the development of psychiatric symptoms in adulthood, particularly among individuals exposed to trauma early in life. In the current study, we examined interactions between self-reported early life trauma, past-year life stress, past-year trauma, and a single nucleotide polymorphism (rs1360780) in FKBP5 on heavy alcohol consumption in a sample of 1,845 college students from two university settings. Although we found no effect of early life trauma on heavy drinking in rs1360780*T-allele carriers, rs1360780*C homozygotes exposed to early life trauma had a lower probability of heavy drinking compared to rs1360780*C homozygotes not exposed to early life trauma (P stress or past-year trauma, and FKBP5 genotype on heavy drinking suggests that there exists a developmental period of susceptibility to stress that is moderated by FKBP5 genotype. These findings implicate interactive effects of early life trauma and FKBP5 genetic variation on heavy drinking. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Snippet-based relevance predictions for federated web search

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Demeester, Thomas; Nguyen, Dong; Trieschnigg, Dolf; Develder, Chris; Hiemstra, Djoerd

    2013-01-01

    How well can the relevance of a page be predicted, purely based on snippets? This would be highly useful in a Federated Web Search setting where caching large amounts of result snippets is more feasible than caching entire pages. The experiments reported in this paper make use of result snippets and

  6. Fuzzy-Based Trust Prediction Model for Routing in WSNs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Anita

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The cooperative nature of multihop wireless sensor networks (WSNs makes it vulnerable to varied types of attacks. The sensitive application environments and resource constraints of WSNs mandate the requirement of lightweight security scheme. The earlier security solutions were based on historical behavior of neighbor but the security can be enhanced by predicting the future behavior of the nodes in the network. In this paper, we proposed a fuzzy-based trust prediction model for routing (FTPR in WSNs with minimal overhead in regard to memory and energy consumption. FTPR incorporates a trust prediction model that predicts the future behavior of the neighbor based on the historical behavior, fluctuations in trust value over a period of time, and recommendation inconsistency. In order to reduce the control overhead, FTPR received recommendations from a subset of neighbors who had maximum number of interactions with the requestor. Theoretical analysis and simulation results of FTPR protocol demonstrate higher packet delivery ratio, higher network lifetime, lower end-to-end delay, and lower memory and energy consumption than the traditional and existing trust-based routing schemes.

  7. An Agent-Based Model of Institutional Life-Cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Wäckerle

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available We use an agent-based model to investigate the interdependent dynamics between individual agency and emergent socioeconomic structure, leading to institutional change in a generic way. Our model simulates the emergence and exit of institutional units, understood as generic governed social structures. We show how endogenized trust and exogenously given leader authority influences institutional change, i.e., diversity in institutional life-cycles. It turns out that these governed institutions (destructure in cyclical patterns dependent on the overall evolution of trust in the artificial society, while at the same time, influencing this evolution by supporting social learning. Simulation results indicate three scenarios of institutional life-cycles. Institutions may, (1 build up very fast and freeze the artificial society in a stable but fearful pattern (ordered system; (2 exist only for a short time, leading to a very trusty society (highly fluctuating system; and (3 structure in cyclical patterns over time and support social learning due to cumulative causation of societal trust (complex system.

  8. Fuzzy Prediction for Traffic Flow Based on Delta Test

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a novel approach to one-step-forward prediction of traffic flow based on fuzzy reasoning. The successful construction of a competent fuzzy inference system of Sugeno type largely relies on proper choice of input dimension and accurate estimation of structure parameters and rules. The first issue is addressed with a proposed method, based on δ-test, which can simultaneously determine input dimension and reduce noise level. In response to the second issue, two clustering tec...

  9. Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Algorithm Based on Action Prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TONG Liang; LU Ji-lian

    2006-01-01

    Multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithms are studied. A prediction-based multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithm is presented for multi-robot cooperation task. The multi-robot cooperation experiment based on multi-agent inverted pendulum is made to test the efficency of the new algorithm, and the experiment results show that the new algorithm can achieve the cooperation strategy much faster than the primitive multiagent reinforcement learning algorithm.

  10. Non-suicidal self-injury prospectively predicts interpersonal stressful life events and depressive symptoms among adolescent girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Taylor A; Hamilton, Jessica L; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

    2015-08-30

    Non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) is the deliberate self-harm of one's tissue, engaged in without lethal intent, and occurs frequently among late adolescents. Although research has indicated that NSSI predicts depression, the potential psychosocial mechanisms through which engagement in NSSI makes one susceptible to future depressive symptoms remain unclear. The present study examined whether NSSI increases the risk of experiencing stressful life events, which, in turn, heightens the risk for subsequent depressive symptoms. Drawn from a sample specifically selected for adolescents at high and low risk for developing bipolar spectrum disorders, a total of 110 late-adolescents (mean age=18.74, SD=.69; 73% female) were administered measures of lifetime and past year engagement in NSSI and current depressive symptomatology. Approximately 6 months later, they completed a measure of depressive symptoms and a questionnaire and interview assessing life events that occurred over the 6-month interval. Results suggest that the frequency of lifetime and past year NSSI predicted the occurrence of interpersonal stressful life events beyond the effects of initial depressive symptoms, but only for late adolescent girls. Results further suggest that higher levels of interpersonal stressful life events mediated the relationship between NSSI frequency and prospective increases in depressive symptoms among girls.

  11. Small Crack Growth and Fatigue Life Predictions for High-Strength Aluminium Alloys. Part 1; Experimental and Fracture Mechanics Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, X. R.; Newman, J. C.; Zhao, W.; Swain, M. H.; Ding, C. F.; Phillips, E. P.

    1998-01-01

    The small crack effect was investigated in two high-strength aluminium alloys: 7075-T6 bare and LC9cs clad alloy. Both experimental and analytical investigations were conducted to study crack initiation and growth of small cracks. In the experimental program, fatigue tests, small crack and large crack tests A,ere conducted under constant amplitude and Mini-TWIST spectrum loading conditions. A pronounced small crack effect was observed in both materials, especially for the negative stress ratios. For all loading conditions, most of the fatigue life of the SENT specimens was shown to be crack propagation from initial material defects or from the cladding layer. In the analysis program, three-dimensional finite element and A weight function methods were used to determine stress intensity factors and to develop SIF equations for surface and corner cracks at the notch in the SENT specimens. A plastisity-induced crack-closure model was used to correlate small and large crack data, and to make fatigue life predictions, Predicted crack-growth rates and fatigue lives agreed well with experiments. A total fatigue life prediction method for the aluminum alloys was developed and demonstrated using the crack-closure model.

  12. Lifetime prediction based on Gamma processes from accelerated degradation data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Haowei; Xu Tingxue; Mi Qiaoli

    2015-01-01

    Accelerated degradation test is a useful approach to predict the product lifetime at the normal use stress level, especially for highly reliable products. Two kinds of the lifetime prediction based on Gamma processes were studied. One was to predict the lifetime of the population from accelerated degradation data, and the other was to predict the lifetime of an individual by taking the accelerated degradation data as prior information. For an extensive application, the Gamma process with a time transformation and random effects was considered. A novel contribution is that a deducing method for determining the relationships between the shape and scale parameters of Gamma processes and accelerated stresses was presented. When predicting the lifetime of an indi-vidual, Bayesian inference methods were adopted to improve the prediction accuracy, in which the conjugate prior distribution and the non-conjugate prior distribution of random parameters were studied. The conjugate prior distribution only considers the random effect of the scale parameter while the non-conjugate prior distribution considers the random effects of both the scale and shape parameter. The application and usefulness of the proposed method was demonstrated by the accelerated degradation data of carbon-film resistors.

  13. A burnout prediction model based around char morphology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    T. Wu; E. Lester; M. Cloke [University of Nottingham, Nottingham (United Kingdom). Nottingham Energy and Fuel Centre

    2005-07-01

    Poor burnout in a coal-fired power plant has marked penalties in the form of reduced energy efficiency and elevated waste material that can not be utilized. The prediction of coal combustion behaviour in a furnace is of great significance in providing valuable information not only for process optimization but also for coal buyers in the international market. Coal combustion models have been developed that can make predictions about burnout behaviour and burnout potential. Most of these kinetic models require standard parameters such as volatile content, particle size and assumed char porosity in order to make a burnout prediction. This paper presents a new model called the Char Burnout Model (ChB) that also uses detailed information about char morphology in its prediction. The model can use data input from one of two sources. Both sources are derived from image analysis techniques. The first from individual analysis and characterization of real char types using an automated program. The second from predicted char types based on data collected during the automated image analysis of coal particles. Modelling results were compared with a different carbon burnout kinetic model and burnout data from re-firing the chars in a drop tube furnace operating at 1300{sup o}C, 5% oxygen across several residence times. An improved agreement between ChB model and DTF experimental data proved that the inclusion of char morphology in combustion models can improve model predictions. 27 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs.

  14. SVM-based prediction of caspase substrate cleavage sites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ranganathan Shoba

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Caspases belong to a class of cysteine proteases which function as critical effectors in apoptosis and inflammation by cleaving substrates immediately after unique sites. Prediction of such cleavage sites will complement structural and functional studies on substrates cleavage as well as discovery of new substrates. Recently, different computational methods have been developed to predict the cleavage sites of caspase substrates with varying degrees of success. As the support vector machines (SVM algorithm has been shown to be useful in several biological classification problems, we have implemented an SVM-based method to investigate its applicability to this domain. Results A set of unique caspase substrates cleavage sites were obtained from literature and used for evaluating the SVM method. Datasets containing (i the tetrapeptide cleavage sites, (ii the tetrapeptide cleavage sites, augmented by two adjacent residues, P1' and P2' amino acids and (iii the tetrapeptide cleavage sites with ten additional upstream and downstream flanking sequences (where available were tested. The SVM method achieved an accuracy ranging from 81.25% to 97.92% on independent test sets. The SVM method successfully predicted the cleavage of a novel caspase substrate and its mutants. Conclusion This study presents an SVM approach for predicting caspase substrate cleavage sites based on the cleavage sites and the downstream and upstream flanking sequences. The method shows an improvement over existing methods and may be useful for predicting hitherto undiscovered cleavage sites.

  15. Blind test of physics-based prediction of protein structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shell, M Scott; Ozkan, S Banu; Voelz, Vincent; Wu, Guohong Albert; Dill, Ken A

    2009-02-01

    We report here a multiprotein blind test of a computer method to predict native protein structures based solely on an all-atom physics-based force field. We use the AMBER 96 potential function with an implicit (GB/SA) model of solvation, combined with replica-exchange molecular-dynamics simulations. Coarse conformational sampling is performed using the zipping and assembly method (ZAM), an approach that is designed to mimic the putative physical routes of protein folding. ZAM was applied to the folding of six proteins, from 76 to 112 monomers in length, in CASP7, a community-wide blind test of protein structure prediction. Because these predictions have about the same level of accuracy as typical bioinformatics methods, and do not utilize information from databases of known native structures, this work opens up the possibility of predicting the structures of membrane proteins, synthetic peptides, or other foldable polymers, for which there is little prior knowledge of native structures. This approach may also be useful for predicting physical protein folding routes, non-native conformations, and other physical properties from amino acid sequences.

  16. A burnout prediction model based around char morphology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tao Wu; Edward Lester; Michael Cloke [University of Nottingham, Nottingham (United Kingdom). School of Chemical, Environmental and Mining Engineering

    2006-05-15

    Several combustion models have been developed that can make predictions about coal burnout and burnout potential. Most of these kinetic models require standard parameters such as volatile content and particle size to make a burnout prediction. This article presents a new model called the char burnout (ChB) model, which also uses detailed information about char morphology in its prediction. The input data to the model is based on information derived from two different image analysis techniques. One technique generates characterization data from real char samples, and the other predicts char types based on characterization data from image analysis of coal particles. The pyrolyzed chars in this study were created in a drop tube furnace operating at 1300{sup o}C, 200 ms, and 1% oxygen. Modeling results were compared with a different carbon burnout kinetic model as well as the actual burnout data from refiring the same chars in a drop tube furnace operating at 1300{sup o}C, 5% oxygen, and residence times of 200, 400, and 600 ms. A good agreement between ChB model and experimental data indicates that the inclusion of char morphology in combustion models could well improve model predictions. 38 refs., 5 figs., 6 tabs.

  17. Life history predicts risk of species decline in a stochastic world

    OpenAIRE

    Van Allen, Benjamin G.; Amy E. Dunham; Asquith, Christopher M.; Rudolf, Volker H.W.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding what traits determine the extinction risk of species has been a long-standing challenge. Natural populations increasingly experience reductions in habitat and population size concurrent with increasing novel environmental variation owing to anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. Recent studies show that a species risk of decline towards extinction is often non-random across species with different life histories. We propose that species with life histories in which all sta...

  18. Satellite Lithium-Ion Battery Remaining Cycle Life Prediction with Novel Indirect Health Indicator Extraction

    OpenAIRE

    Haitao Liao; Wei Xie; Yu Peng; Datong Liu; Hong Wang

    2013-01-01

    Prognostics and remaining useful life (RUL) estimation for lithium-ion batteries play an important role in intelligent battery management systems (BMS). The capacity is often used as the fade indicator for estimating the remaining cycle life of a lithium-ion battery. For spacecraft requiring high reliability and long lifetime, in-orbit RUL estimation and reliability verification on ground should be carefully addressed. However, it is quite challenging to monitor and estimate the capacity of a...

  19. Prediction of Banking Systemic Risk Based on Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shouwei Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Banking systemic risk is a complex nonlinear phenomenon and has shed light on the importance of safeguarding financial stability by recent financial crisis. According to the complex nonlinear characteristics of banking systemic risk, in this paper we apply support vector machine (SVM to the prediction of banking systemic risk in an attempt to suggest a new model with better explanatory power and stability. We conduct a case study of an SVM-based prediction model for Chinese banking systemic risk and find the experiment results showing that support vector machine is an efficient method in such case.

  20. Control of Unknown Chaotic Systems Based on Neural Predictive Control

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Dong-Mei; WANG Zheng-Ou

    2003-01-01

    We introduce the predictive control into the control of chaotic system and propose a neural networkcontrol algorithm based on predictive control. The proposed control system stabilizes the chaotic motion in an unknownchaotic system onto the desired target trajectory. The proposed algorithm is simple and its convergence speed is muchhigher than existing similar algorithms. The control system can control hyperchaos. We analyze the stability of thecontrol system and prove the convergence property of the neural controller. The theoretic derivation and simulationsdemonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm.

  1. Control of Unknown Chaotic Systems Based on Neural Predictive Control

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIDong-Mei; WANGZheng-Ou

    2003-01-01

    We introduce the predictive control into the control of chaotic system and propose a neural network control algorithm based on predictive control. The proposed control system stabilizes the chaotic motion in an unknown chaotic system onto the desired target trajectory. The proposed algorithm is simple and its convergence speed is much higher than existing similar algorithms. The control system can control hyperchaos. We analyze the stability of the control system and prove the convergence property of the neural controller. The theoretic derivation and simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm.

  2. Predictive Software Measures based on Z Specifications - A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Bollin

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the effort and quality of a system is a critical step at the beginning of every software project. It is necessary to have reliable ways of calculating these measures, and, it is even better when the calculation can be done as early as possible in the development life-cycle. Having this in mind, metrics for formal specifications are examined with a view to correlations to complexity and quality-based code measures. A case study, based on a Z specification and its implementation in ADA, analyzes the practicability of these metrics as predictors.

  3. PPA BASED PREDICTION-CORRECTION METHODS FOR MONOTONE VARIATIONAL INEQUALITIES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    He Bingsheng; Jiang Jianlin; Qian Maijian; Xu Ya

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we study the proximal point algorithm (PPA) based predictioncorrection (PC) methods for monotone variational inequalities. Each iteration of these methods consists of a prediction and a correction. The predictors are produced by inexact PPA steps. The new iterates are then updated by a correction using the PPA formula. We present two profit functions which serve two purposes: First we show that the profit functions are tight lower bounds of the improvements obtained in each iteration. Based on this conclusion we obtain the convergence inexactness restrictions for the prediction step. Second we show that the profit functions are quadratically dependent upon the step lengths, thus the optimal step lengths are obtained in the correction step. In the last part of the paper we compare the strengths of different methods based on their inexactness restrictions.

  4. Predictive value of obsessive compulsive symptoms involving the skin on quality of life in patients with acne vulgaris.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bez, Yasin; Yesilova, Yavuz; Arı, Mustafa; Kaya, Mehmet Cemal; Alpak, Gokay; Bulut, Mahmut

    2013-11-01

    Acne is one of the most common dermatological diseases, and obsessive compulsive disorder is among the most frequent psychiatric conditions seen in dermatology clinics. Comorbidity of these conditions may therefore be expected. The aim of this study was to measure obsessive compulsive symptoms and quality of life in patients with acne vulgaris, compare them with those of healthy control subjects, and determine whether there is any predictive value of obsessive compulsive symptoms for quality of life in patients with acne. Obsessive compulsive symptoms and quality of life measurements of 146 patients with acne vulgaris and 94 healthy control subjects were made using the Maudsley Obsessive Compulsive Questionnaire and Short Form-36 in a cross-sectional design. Patients with acne vulgaris had lower scores for physical functioning, physical role dysfunction, general health perception, vitality, and emotional role dysfunction. They also had higher scores for checking, slowness, and rumination. The only predictor of physical functioning and vitality dimensions of health-related quality of life in these patients was rumination score. Obsessive compulsive symptoms in patients with acne vulgaris are higher than in controls, and this may correlate with both disease severity and quality of life for patients.

  5. STRESS-STRAIN FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS AND FATIGUE LIFE PREDICTION FOR BOLTED CONNECTIONS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    A cyclic plasticity model is used into finite element (FE) method to obtain the details of elastic-plastic stress-strain in the bolts under cyclic axial loading. Two criteria in multiaxial fatigue are employed to predict fatigue lives of bolts. The predicted fatigue lives are in favorable agreement with the experimental results for machined bolts.

  6. Prediction of potential drug targets based on simple sequence properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lai Luhua

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During the past decades, research and development in drug discovery have attracted much attention and efforts. However, only 324 drug targets are known for clinical drugs up to now. Identifying potential drug targets is the first step in the process of modern drug discovery for developing novel therapeutic agents. Therefore, the identification and validation of new and effective drug targets are of great value for drug discovery in both academia and pharmaceutical industry. If a protein can be predicted in advance for its potential application as a drug target, the drug discovery process targeting this protein will be greatly speeded up. In the current study, based on the properties of known drug targets, we have developed a sequence-based drug target prediction method for fast identification of novel drug targets. Results Based on simple physicochemical properties extracted from protein sequences of known drug targets, several support vector machine models have been constructed in this study. The best model can distinguish currently known drug targets from non drug targets at an accuracy of 84%. Using this model, potential protein drug targets of human origin from Swiss-Prot were predicted, some of which have already attracted much attention as potential drug targets in pharmaceutical research. Conclusion We have developed a drug target prediction method based solely on protein sequence information without the knowledge of family/domain annotation, or the protein 3D structure. This method can be applied in novel drug target identification and validation, as well as genome scale drug target predictions.

  7. PROSPER: an integrated feature-based tool for predicting protease substrate cleavage sites.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiangning Song

    Full Text Available The ability to catalytically cleave protein substrates after synthesis is fundamental for all forms of life. Accordingly, site-specific proteolysis is one of the most important post-translational modifications. The key to understanding the physiological role of a protease is to identify its natural substrate(s. Knowledge of the substrate specificity of a protease can dramatically improve our ability to predict its target protein substrates, but this information must be utilized in an effective manner in order to efficiently identify protein substrates by in silico approaches. To address this problem, we present PROSPER, an integrated feature-based server for in silico identification of protease substrates and their cleavage sites for twenty-four different proteases. PROSPER utilizes established specificity information for these proteases (derived from the MEROPS database with a machine learning approach to predict protease cleavage sites by using different, but complementary sequence and structure characteristics. Features used by PROSPER include local amino acid sequence profile, predicted secondary structure, solvent accessibility and predicted native disorder. Thus, for proteases with known amino acid specificity, PROSPER provides a convenient, pre-prepared tool for use in identifying protein substrates for the enzymes. Systematic prediction analysis for the twenty-four proteases thus far included in the database revealed that the features we have included in the tool strongly improve performance in terms of cleavage site prediction, as evidenced by their contribution to performance improvement in terms of identifying known cleavage sites in substrates for these enzymes. In comparison with two state-of-the-art prediction tools, PoPS and SitePrediction, PROSPER achieves greater accuracy and coverage. To our knowledge, PROSPER is the first comprehensive server capable of predicting cleavage sites of multiple proteases within a single substrate

  8. Prediction of tectonically deformed coal based on lithologic seismic information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Juanjuan; Pan, Dongming; Cui, Ruofei; Ding, Enjie; Zhang, Wei; Hu, Mingshun

    2016-02-01

    Owing to the differences in physical properties between tectonically deformed coal (TDC) and primary coal, lithologic seismic inversion methods were adopted to identify the coal structure type, including probabilistic neural network (PNN) inversion, elastic impedance (EI) inversion and simultaneous inversion methods. Based on poststack and prestack gathers, the inversion methods were applied to calculate lithologic seismic information, which included porosity, acoustic impedance, elastic impedance, λ × ρ and μ × ρ data. The inversion results were then analysed to evaluate the development potential of TDC. The research showed that the lithology inversion results, which indicated the potential zone of development areas of the coal, were all basically identical and a comprehensive prediction factor (the linear lithologic information combination) was proposed to effectively predict the development potential. Therefore, the prediction of TDC by lithologic seismic information could provide a scientific basis for both coal mining safety and the development potential of large-scale coalbed methane resources.

  9. Ontology-based prediction of surgical events in laparoscopic surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katić, Darko; Wekerle, Anna-Laura; Gärtner, Fabian; Kenngott, Hannes; Müller-Stich, Beat Peter; Dillmann, Rüdiger; Speidel, Stefanie

    2013-03-01

    Context-aware technologies have great potential to help surgeons during laparoscopic interventions. Their underlying idea is to create systems which can adapt their assistance functions automatically to the situation in the OR, thus relieving surgeons from the burden of managing computer assisted surgery devices manually. To this purpose, a certain kind of understanding of the current situation in the OR is essential. Beyond that, anticipatory knowledge of incoming events is beneficial, e.g. for early warnings of imminent risk situations. To achieve the goal of predicting surgical events based on previously observed ones, we developed a language to describe surgeries and surgical events using Description Logics and integrated it with methods from computational linguistics. Using n-Grams to compute probabilities of followup events, we are able to make sensible predictions of upcoming events in real-time. The system was evaluated on professionally recorded and labeled surgeries and showed an average prediction rate of 80%.

  10. New Approaches for Channel Prediction Based on Sinusoidal Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekman Torbjörn

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Long-range channel prediction is considered to be one of the most important enabling technologies to future wireless communication systems. The prediction of Rayleigh fading channels is studied in the frame of sinusoidal modeling in this paper. A stochastic sinusoidal model to represent a Rayleigh fading channel is proposed. Three different predictors based on the statistical sinusoidal model are proposed. These methods outperform the standard linear predictor (LP in Monte Carlo simulations, but underperform with real measurement data, probably due to nonstationary model parameters. To mitigate these modeling errors, a joint moving average and sinusoidal (JMAS prediction model and the associated joint least-squares (LS predictor are proposed. It combines the sinusoidal model with an LP to handle unmodeled dynamics in the signal. The joint LS predictor outperforms all the other sinusoidal LMMSE predictors in suburban environments, but still performs slightly worse than the standard LP in urban environments.

  11. Prediction Research of Red Tide Based on Improved FCM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaomei Hu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Red tides are caused by the combination effects of many marine elements. The complexity of the marine ecosystem makes it hard to find the relationship between marine elements and red tides. The algorithm of fuzzy c-means (FCM can get clear classification of things and expresses the fuzzy state among different things. Therefore, a prediction algorithm of red tide based on improved FCM is proposed. In order to overcome the defect of FCM which is overdependent on the initial cluster centers and the objective function, this paper gains the initial cluster centers through the principle of regional minimum data density and the minimum mean distance. The feature weighted cluster center is added to the objective function. Finally, the improved FCM algorithm is applied in the prediction research of red tide, and the results show that the improved FCM algorithm has good denoising ability and high accuracy in the prediction of red tides.

  12. Temperature prediction control based on least squares support vector machines

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Bin LIU; Hongye SU; Weihua HUANG; Jian CHU

    2004-01-01

    A prediction control algorithm is presented based on least squares support vector machines (LS-SVM) model for a class of complex systems with strong nonlinearity.The nonlinear off-line model of the controlled plant is built by LS-SVM with radial basis function (RBF) kernel.In the process of system running,the off-line model is linearized at each sampling instant,and the generalized prediction control (GPC) algorithm is employed to implement the prediction control for the controlled plant.The obtained algorithm is applied to a boiler temperature control system with complicated nonlinearity and large time delay.The results of the experiment verify the effectiveness and merit of the algorithm.

  13. Prediction of Breast Cancer using Rule Based Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nagendra Kumar SINGH

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The current work proposes a model for prediction of breast cancer using the classification approach in data mining. The proposed model is based on various parameters, including symptoms of breast cancer, gene mutation and other risk factors causing breast cancer. Mutations have been predicted in breast cancer causing genes with the help of alignment of normal and abnormal gene sequences; then predicting the class label of breast cancer (risky or safe on the basis of IF-THEN rules, using Genetic Algorithm (GA. In this work, GA has used variable gene encoding mechanisms for chromosomes encoding, uniform population generations and selects two chromosomes by Roulette-Wheel selection technique for two-point crossover, which gives better solutions. The performance of the model is evaluated using the F score measure, Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC by plotting points (Sensitivity V/s 1- Specificity.

  14. The Attribute for Hydrocarbon Prediction Based on Attenuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermana, Maman; Harith, Z. Z. T.; Sum, C. W.; Ghosh, D. P.

    2014-03-01

    Hydrocarbon prediction is a crucial issue in the oil and gas industry. Currently, the prediction of pore fluid and lithology are based on amplitude interpretation which has the potential to produce pitfalls in certain conditions of reservoir. Motivated by this fact, this work is directed to find out other attributes that can be used to reduce the pitfalls in the amplitude interpretation. Some seismic attributes were examined and studies showed that the attenuation attribute is a better attribute for hydrocarbon prediction. Theoretically, the attenuation mechanism of wave propagation is associated with the movement of fluid in the pore; hence the existence of hydrocarbon in the pore will be represented by attenuation attribute directly. In this paper we evaluated the feasibility of the quality factor ratio of P-wave and S-wave (Qp/Qs) as hydrocarbon indicator using well data and also we developed a new attribute based on attenuation for hydrocarbon prediction -- Normalized Energy Reduction Stack (NERS). To achieve these goals, this work was divided into 3 main parts; estimating the Qp/Qs on well log data, testing the new attribute in the synthetic data and applying the new attribute on real data in Malay Basin data. The result show that the Qp/Qs is better than Poisson's ratio and Lamda over Mu as hydrocarbon indicator. The curve, trend analysis and contrast of Qp/Qs is more powerful at distinguishing pore fluid than Poisson ratio and Lamda over Mu. The NERS attribute was successful in distinguishing the hydrocarbon from brine on synthetic data. Applying this attribute on real data on Malay basin, the NERS attribute is qualitatively conformable with the structure and location where the gas is predicted. The quantitative interpretation of this attribute for hydrocarbon prediction needs to be investigated further.

  15. Self-concept clarity and religious orientations: prediction of purpose in life and self-esteem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Błażek, Magdalena; Besta, Tomasz

    2012-09-01

    The present study concerns the relationship between self-concept clarity, religiosity, and well-being, as well as the mediating influence of religiosity on the relationship between self-concept clarity and sense of meaning in life and self-esteem. Self-concept clarity was found to be a significant predictor of sense of meaning in life and self-esteem; intrinsic religious orientation was found to be a predictor of sense of meaning in life, while the quest religious orientation was a predictor for self-esteem. The cross-products of self-concept clarity and intrinsic religious orientation were found to be related to the sense of purpose in life, which would point to religiosity being a mediator of the relationship between self-concept clarity and sense of purpose in life. The cross-products of self-concept clarity and quest religious orientation were found to be a predictor of self-esteem, which indicates a mediating effect of this religious orientation in the relationship of self-concept clarity and self-esteem.

  16. Predicting quality of life for people living with HIV: international evidence from seven cultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skevington, S M; Norweg, S; Standage, M

    2010-05-01

    The need for a validated quality of life (QOL) model focussing on people living with HIV/AIDS has led to an international re-evaluation and extension of the Chronic Illness Quality of Life model using complex latent modelling techniques. After reoperationalising six model variables and including independence and sex-life, the WHOQOL-HIV was administered to 1281 people with asymptomatic-HIV (42%), symptomatic-HIV (40%) or AIDS (18%; 34 years; 62% male) living in Australia, Brazil, India (north & south), Italy, Thailand and Ukraine. The overall model fit was acceptable. Social inclusion did not directly improve QOL, but increased positive feelings, social support and perceived improvements of access to health and social care; all three improved QOL. Social inclusion increased perceived physical health indirectly through positive feelings. Better physical health improved sex-life and gave greater independence; both improved QOL. Gender and disease stage models were acceptable, fitting best for men and asymptomatic-HIV. Similar aspects of QOL were depleted for women and some disease stages. Increased social support did not consistently improve independence or positive feelings. Positive feelings improved the sex-life of men and those with asymptomatic-HIV. This cross-cultural approach combining assessment with theory, could guide future international interventions and practice.

  17. Deep-Learning-Based Drug-Target Interaction Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Ming; Zhang, Zhimin; Niu, Shaoyu; Sha, Haozhi; Yang, Ruihan; Yun, Yonghuan; Lu, Hongmei

    2017-03-13

    Identifying interactions between known drugs and targets is a major challenge in drug repositioning. In silico prediction of drug-target interaction (DTI) can speed up the expensive and time-consuming experimental work by providing the most potent DTIs. In silico prediction of DTI can also provide insights about the potential drug-drug interaction and promote the exploration of drug side effects. Traditionally, the performance of DTI prediction depends heavily on the descriptors used to represent the drugs and the target proteins. In this paper, to accurately predict new DTIs between approved drugs and targets without separating the targets into different classes, we developed a deep-learning-based algorithmic framework named DeepDTIs. It first abstracts representations from raw input descriptors using unsupervised pretraining and then applies known label pairs of interaction to build a classification model. Compared with other methods, it is found that DeepDTIs reaches or outperforms other state-of-the-art methods. The DeepDTIs can be further used to predict whether a new drug targets to some existing targets or whether a new target interacts with some existing drugs.

  18. Neural Network Predictive Control Based Power System Stabilizer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Mohamed Yousef

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigates the power system stabilizer based on neural predictive control for improving power system dynamic performance over a wide range of operating conditions. In this study a design and application of the Neural Network Model Predictive Controller (NN-MPC on a simple power system composed of a synchronous generator connected to an infinite bus through a transmission line is proposed. The synchronous machine is represented in detail, taking into account the effect of the machine saliency and the damper winding. Neural network model predictive control combines reliable prediction of neural network model with excellent performance of model predictive control using nonlinear Levenberg-Marquardt optimization. This control system is used the rotor speed deviation as a feedback signal. Furthermore, the using performance system of the proposed controller is compared with the system performance using conventional one (PID controller through simulation studies. Digital simulation has been carried out in order to validate the effectiveness proposed NN-MPC power system stabilizer for achieving excellent performance. The results demonstrate that the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed controller in terms of fast response and small settling time.

  19. A New Particle Swarm Optimization Based Stock Market Prediction Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Essam El. Seidy

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Over the last years, the average person's interest in the stock market has grown dramatically. This demand has doubled with the advancement of technology that has opened in the International stock market, so that nowadays anybody can own stocks, and use many types of software to perform the aspired profit with minimum risk. Consequently, the analysis and prediction of future values and trends of the financial markets have got more attention, and due to large applications in different business transactions, stock market prediction has become a critical topic of research. In this paper, our earlier presented particle swarm optimization with center of mass technique (PSOCoM is applied to the task of training an adaptive linear combiner to form a new stock market prediction model. This prediction model is used with some common indicators to maximize the return and minimize the risk for the stock market. The experimental results show that the proposed technique is superior than the other PSO based models according to the prediction accuracy.

  20. GIS-BASED PREDICTION OF HURRICANE FLOOD INUNDATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    JUDI, DAVID [Los Alamos National Laboratory; KALYANAPU, ALFRED [Los Alamos National Laboratory; MCPHERSON, TIMOTHY [Los Alamos National Laboratory; BERSCHEID, ALAN [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2007-01-17

    A simulation environment is being developed for the prediction and analysis of the inundation consequences for infrastructure systems from extreme flood events. This decision support architecture includes a GIS-based environment for model input development, simulation integration tools for meteorological, hydrologic, and infrastructure system models and damage assessment tools for infrastructure systems. The GIS-based environment processes digital elevation models (30-m from the USGS), land use/cover (30-m NLCD), stream networks from the National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) and soils data from the NRCS (STATSGO) to create stream network, subbasins, and cross-section shapefiles for drainage basins selected for analysis. Rainfall predictions are made by a numerical weather model and ingested in gridded format into the simulation environment. Runoff hydrographs are estimated using Green-Ampt infiltration excess runoff prediction and a 1D diffusive wave overland flow routing approach. The hydrographs are fed into the stream network and integrated in a dynamic wave routing module using the EPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) to predict flood depth. The flood depths are then transformed into inundation maps and exported for damage assessment. Hydrologic/hydraulic results are presented for Tropical Storm Allison.

  1. Chaos Time Series Prediction Based on Membrane Optimization Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper puts forward a prediction model based on membrane computing optimization algorithm for chaos time series; the model optimizes simultaneously the parameters of phase space reconstruction (τ,m and least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM (γ,σ by using membrane computing optimization algorithm. It is an important basis for spectrum management to predict accurately the change trend of parameters in the electromagnetic environment, which can help decision makers to adopt an optimal action. Then, the model presented in this paper is used to forecast band occupancy rate of frequency modulation (FM broadcasting band and interphone band. To show the applicability and superiority of the proposed model, this paper will compare the forecast model presented in it with conventional similar models. The experimental results show that whether single-step prediction or multistep prediction, the proposed model performs best based on three error measures, namely, normalized mean square error (NMSE, root mean square error (RMSE, and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE.

  2. Predicting online ratings based on the opinion spreading process

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xing-Sheng; Zhou, Ming-Yang; Zhuo, Zhao; Fu, Zhong-Qian; Liu, Jian-Guo

    2015-10-01

    Predicting users' online ratings is always a challenge issue and has drawn lots of attention. In this paper, we present a rating prediction method by combining the user opinion spreading process with the collaborative filtering algorithm, where user similarity is defined by measuring the amount of opinion a user transfers to another based on the primitive user-item rating matrix. The proposed method could produce a more precise rating prediction for each unrated user-item pair. In addition, we introduce a tunable parameter λ to regulate the preferential diffusion relevant to the degree of both opinion sender and receiver. The numerical results for Movielens and Netflix data sets show that this algorithm has a better accuracy than the standard user-based collaborative filtering algorithm using Cosine and Pearson correlation without increasing computational complexity. By tuning λ, our method could further boost the prediction accuracy when using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) as measurements. In the optimal cases, on Movielens and Netflix data sets, the corresponding algorithmic accuracy (MAE and RMSE) are improved 11.26% and 8.84%, 13.49% and 10.52% compared to the item average method, respectively.

  3. Remaining useful life prognostics for aeroengine based on superstatistics and information fusion

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Junqiang; Zhang Malan; Zuo Hongfu; Xie Jiwei

    2014-01-01

    Remaining useful life (RUL) prognostics is a fundamental premise to perform condition-based maintenance (CBM) for a system subject to performance degradation. Over the past decades, research has been conducted in RUL prognostics for aeroengine. However, most of the prognostics technologies and methods simply base on single parameter, making it hard to demonstrate the spe-cific characteristics of its degradation. To solve such problems, this paper proposes a novel approach to predict RUL by means of superstatistics and information fusion. The performance degradation evolution of the engine is modeled by fusing multiple monitoring parameters, which manifest non-stationary characteristics while degrading. With the obtained degradation curve, prognostics model can be established by state-space method, and then RUL can be estimated when the time-varying parameters of the model are predicted and updated through Kalman filtering algo-rithm. By this method, the non-stationary degradation of each parameter is represented, and multi-ple monitoring parameters are incorporated, both contributing to the final prognostics. A case study shows that this approach enables satisfactory prediction evolution and achieves a markedly better prognosis of RUL.

  4. Remaining useful life prognostics for aeroengine based on superstatistics and information fusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Junqiang

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Remaining useful life (RUL prognostics is a fundamental premise to perform condition-based maintenance (CBM for a system subject to performance degradation. Over the past decades, research has been conducted in RUL prognostics for aeroengine. However, most of the prognostics technologies and methods simply base on single parameter, making it hard to demonstrate the specific characteristics of its degradation. To solve such problems, this paper proposes a novel approach to predict RUL by means of superstatistics and information fusion. The performance degradation evolution of the engine is modeled by fusing multiple monitoring parameters, which manifest non-stationary characteristics while degrading. With the obtained degradation curve, prognostics model can be established by state-space method, and then RUL can be estimated when the time-varying parameters of the model are predicted and updated through Kalman filtering algorithm. By this method, the non-stationary degradation of each parameter is represented, and multiple monitoring parameters are incorporated, both contributing to the final prognostics. A case study shows that this approach enables satisfactory prediction evolution and achieves a markedly better prognosis of RUL.

  5. A concept of a component based system to determine pot-plant shelf-life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Körner, Oliver; Skou, Anne-Marie Thonning; Aaslyng, Jesper Peter Mazanti;

    2006-01-01

    to calculate the expected keeping quality, or it will be able to apply the system as decision support during plant cultivation. In the latter case, the model-based system can be implemented in a greenhouse climate computer. The concept contains information on climate control strategies, controlled stress......, the keeping quality of a plant after removal from the greenhouse could be estimated. A concept of a system that describes a model based knowledge system aiming at determination of the last selling date for pot plants is presented. The core of the conceptual system is a tool that can either be used......Plant keeping quality during shelf life is next to genetic attributes also determined by plant treatment. This is attributed to inner plant quality parameters. We expect that a model including information gathered during crop cultivation could be used to predict the inner crop quality. From that...

  6. Advances in Fatigue Life Prediction and Accelerated Test of Rubber Vibration Isolator%橡胶隔振器寿命预测及加速试验研究进展

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙伟星; 刘山尖; 欧阳昕; 董兴建

    2013-01-01

    The failure modes of rubber vibration isolator and the factors influencing its fatigue life were introduced.The fatigue life prediction method for rubber materials based on fracture energy and S-N curve approaches were summarized.The recent research on fatigue life accelerated test for rubber vibration isolator was presented and the current development trends in rubber fatigue life prediction were prospected.%介绍了橡胶材料的疲劳失效形式及影响橡胶材料抗疲劳性能的因素,总结了基于撕裂能和基于S-N曲线的橡胶材料疲劳寿命预测方法,阐明了橡胶隔振器加速试验研究的现状,展望了未来值得研究的方向.

  7. Support vector machine-based multi-model predictive control

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhejing BA; Youxian SUN

    2008-01-01

    In this paper,a support vector machine-based multi-model predictive control is proposed,in which SVM classification combines well with SVM regression.At first,each working environment is modeled by SVM regression and the support vector machine network-based model predictive control(SVMN-MPC)algorithm corresponding to each environment is developed,and then a multi-class SVM model is established to recognize multiple operating conditions.As for control,the current environment is identified by the multi-class SVM model and then the corresponding SVMN.MPCcontroller is activated at each sampling instant.The proposed modeling,switching and controller design is demonstrated in simulation results.

  8. Stabilisation of difference equations with noisy prediction-based control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braverman, E.; Kelly, C.; Rodkina, A.

    2016-07-01

    We consider the influence of stochastic perturbations on stability of a unique positive equilibrium of a difference equation subject to prediction-based control. These perturbations may be multiplicative We begin by relaxing the control parameter in the deterministic equation, and deriving a range of values for the parameter over which all solutions eventually enter an invariant interval. Then, by allowing the variation to be stochastic, we derive sufficient conditions (less restrictive than known ones for the unperturbed equation) under which the positive equilibrium will be globally a.s. asymptotically stable: i.e. the presence of noise improves the known effectiveness of prediction-based control. Finally, we show that systemic noise has a "blurring" effect on the positive equilibrium, which can be made arbitrarily small by controlling the noise intensity. Numerical examples illustrate our results.

  9. Predictive Potential Field-Based Collision Avoidance for Multicopters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieuwenhuisen, M.; Schadler, M.; Behnke, S.

    2013-08-01

    Reliable obstacle avoidance is a key to navigating with UAVs in the close vicinity of static and dynamic obstacles. Wheel-based mobile robots are often equipped with 2D or 3D laser range finders that cover the 2D workspace sufficiently accurate and at a high rate. Micro UAV platforms operate in a 3D environment, but the restricted payload prohibits the use of fast state-of-the-art 3D sensors. Thus, perception of small obstacles is often only possible in the vicinity of the UAV and a fast collision avoidance system is necessary. We propose a reactive collision avoidance system based on artificial potential fields, that takes the special dynamics of UAVs into account by predicting the influence of obstacles on the estimated trajectory in the near future using a learned motion model. Experimental evaluation shows that the prediction leads to smoother trajectories and allows to navigate collision-free through passageways.

  10. Health Is Life in Balance: Students and Communities Explore Healthy Lifestyles in a Culturally Based Curriculum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aho, Lynn; Ackerman, Joni; Bointy, Shelley; Cuch, Marilyn; Hindelang, Mary; Pinnow, Stephanie; Turnbull, Suzanne

    2011-01-01

    From exploring knowledge from wise members of the community to investigating the science of homeostasis, students learn healthy ways of living through a new hands-on curriculum, Diabetes Education in Tribal Schools: Health Is Life in Balance. The curriculum integrates science and Native American traditions to educate students about science, diabetes and its risk factors, and the importance of nutrition and physical activity in maintaining health and balance in life. Applying an inquiry-based approach to learning, the curriculum builds skills in observation, measurement, prediction, experimentation, and communication, and provides healthy lifestyle messages and innovative science activities for all students. The curriculum is now available to teachers and health educators at no cost through a federal grant.Health Is life in Balance incorporates interdisciplinary standards as well as storytelling to help children understand important messages. Implementation evaluation of the curriculum indicated improved knowledge and attitudes about science and health, positive teacher and student comments, and culturally relevant content. The lessons highlighted in this article give a glimpse into this hands-on curriculum which integrates science and Native American traditions, looking to our past and listening to the wisdom of our Elders, to gain powerful information for healthy, holistic living. The circle of balance is a theme in many indigenous belief systems and is woven into the lessons, providing enduring understandings of health behaviours that can prevent type 2 diabetes in the context of Native American cultural themes.

  11. Towards an evolutionary theory of the origin of life based on kinetics and thermodynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pascal, Robert; Pross, Addy; Sutherland, John D

    2013-11-06

    A sudden transition in a system from an inanimate state to the living state-defined on the basis of present day living organisms-would constitute a highly unlikely event hardly predictable from physical laws. From this uncontroversial idea, a self-consistent representation of the origin of life process is built up, which is based on the possibility of a series of intermediate stages. This approach requires a particular kind of stability for these stages-dynamic kinetic stability (DKS)-which is not usually observed in regular chemistry, and which is reflected in the persistence of entities capable of self-reproduction. The necessary connection of this kinetic behaviour with far-from-equilibrium thermodynamic conditions is emphasized and this leads to an evolutionary view for the origin of life in which multiplying entities must be associated with the dissipation of free energy. Any kind of entity involved in this process has to pay the energetic cost of irreversibility, but, by doing so, the contingent emergence of new functions is made feasible. The consequences of these views on the studies of processes by which life can emerge are inferred.

  12. Profiles of Observed Infant Anger Predict Preschool Behavior Problems: Moderation by Life Stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooker, Rebecca J.; Buss, Kristin A.; Lemery-Chalfant, Kathryn; Aksan, Nazan; Davidson, Richard J.; Goldsmith, H. Hill

    2014-01-01

    Using both traditional composites and novel profiles of anger, we examined associations between infant anger and preschool behavior problems in a large, longitudinal data set (N = 966). We also tested the role of life stress as a moderator of the link between early anger and the development of behavior problems. Although traditional measures of…

  13. Predicting health-related quality of life of parents of children with inherited metabolic diseases

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hatzmann, J.; Valstar, M.J.; Bosch, A.; Wijburg, F.A.; Heymans, H.S.; Grootenhuis, M.A.

    2009-01-01

    1 year before the start of the study, living at home). Parents were approached through the Emma Children's Hospital, and through a national parent and patient association. HRQoL was assessed using the TNO-AZL Questionnaire for Adult's Health Related Quality of Life (TAAQOL), describing 12 domains of

  14. Prediction of mortality in type 2 diabetes from health-related quality of life (ZODIAC-4)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleefstra, N.; Houweling, S.T.; Ubink-Veltmaat, L.J.; Logtenberg, S.J.J.; Meyboom-de Jong, B.; Coyne, J.C.; Groenier, K.H.; Bilo, H.J.G.; Landman, G.

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE - To investigate the relationship between health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and mortality in type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - In 1998,1,143 primary care patients with type 2 diabetes participated in the Zwolle Outpatient Diabetes project Integrating Available Care (ZODIA

  15. Precocity Predicts Shorter Life for Major League Baseball Players: Confirmation of Mccann's Precocity-Longevity Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abel, Ernest L.; Kruger, Michael L.

    2007-01-01

    We tested McCann's precocity-longevity hypothesis, which proposes that early career achievement is related to premature death, for Major League baseball players (N = 3,760). Age at debut was the definition for precocity. We controlled for possible artifacts of life expectancy selection, the "healthy worker" effect, player position, and body-mass…

  16. Predicting the Job and Life Satisfaction of Italian Teachers: Test of a Social Cognitive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lent, Robert W.; Nota, Laura; Soresi, Salvatore; Ginevra, Maria C.; Duffy, Ryan D.; Brown, Steven D.

    2011-01-01

    This study tested a social cognitive model of work and life satisfaction (Lent & Brown, 2006, 2008) in a sample of 235 Italian school teachers. The model offered good overall fit to the data, though not all individual path coefficients were significant. Three of five predictors (favorable work conditions, efficacy-relevant supports, and…

  17. Ac Synchronous Servo Based On The Armature Voltage Prediction Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoshino, Akihiro; Kuromaru, Hiroshi; Kobayashi, Shinichi

    1987-10-01

    A new control method of the AC synchro-nous servo-system (Brushless DC servo-system) is discussed. The new system is based on the armature voltage prediction model. Without a resolver-digital-conver-ter nor a tachometer-generator, the resolver provides following three signals to the system immediately, they are the current command, the induced voltage, and the rotor speed. The new method realizes a simple hardware configuration. Experimental results show a good performance of the system.

  18. Network Based Prediction Model for Genomics Data Analysis*

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Ying; Wang, Pei

    2012-01-01

    Biological networks, such as genetic regulatory networks and protein interaction networks, provide important information for studying gene/protein activities. In this paper, we propose a new method, NetBoosting, for incorporating a priori biological network information in analyzing high dimensional genomics data. Specially, we are interested in constructing prediction models for disease phenotypes of interest based on genomics data, and at the same time identifying disease susceptible genes. ...

  19. Seminal Quality Prediction Using Clustering-Based Decision Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Wang

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of seminal quality with statistical learning tools is an emerging methodology in decision support systems in biomedical engineering and is very useful in early diagnosis of seminal patients and selection of semen donors candidates. However, as is common in medical diagnosis, seminal quality prediction faces the class imbalance problem. In this paper, we propose a novel supervised ensemble learning approach, namely Clustering-Based Decision Forests, to tackle unbalanced class learning problem in seminal quality prediction. Experiment results on real fertility diagnosis dataset have shown that Clustering-Based Decision Forests outperforms decision tree, Support Vector Machines, random forests, multilayer perceptron neural networks and logistic regression by a noticeable margin. Clustering-Based Decision Forests can also be used to evaluate variables’ importance and the top five important factors that may affect semen concentration obtained in this study are age, serious trauma, sitting time, the season when the semen sample is produced, and high fevers in the last year. The findings could be helpful in explaining seminal concentration problems in infertile males or pre-screening semen donor candidates.

  20. Fuzzy Prediction for Traffic Flow Based on Delta Test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel approach to one-step-forward prediction of traffic flow based on fuzzy reasoning. The successful construction of a competent fuzzy inference system of Sugeno type largely relies on proper choice of input dimension and accurate estimation of structure parameters and rules. The first issue is addressed with a proposed method, based on δ-test, which can simultaneously determine input dimension and reduce noise level. In response to the second issue, two clustering techniques, based on nearest-neighbor clustering and Gaussian mixture models, are successively employed to determine the antecedent parameters and rules, and the estimation for the consequent parameters is achieved by the least square estimation technique. A number of experiments have been performed on the one-week data of traffic flow to evaluate the proposed approach in terms of denosing, prediction performances, overfitting, and so forth. The experimental results have demonstrated that the proposed prediction approach is effective in removing noise and constructing a competent and compact fuzzy inference system without significant overfitting.

  1. Fatigue Life Prediction for 45 Steel with Given Survivability%给定存活率下45钢的疲劳寿命估算

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘嘉; 李静; 杨友社; 李强; 张忠平

    2011-01-01

    基于临界损伤原理,在以损伤应变范围作为金属材料疲劳裂纹萌生寿命控制参量的基础上,推导了一个新的疲劳裂纹萌生寿命(Fatigue Crack Initation Life,FCIL)估算模型,并给出了模型中始裂抗力系数和始裂门槛值与金属拉伸性能参数之间的关系.与郑氏公式不同,新的FCIL估算模型中疲劳延性指数不恒等于-0.5,而是一个材料常数,用以反映材料抵抗疲劳破坏的能力.以新的FCIL估算模型为基础,建立了含缺口45钢具有给定存活率的疲劳寿命预测公式(PSN曲线公式).与基于郑氏公式的PSN公式相比,新的PSN曲线公式可以更为准确地预测45钢具有给定存活率的疲劳寿命.%Based on the critical damage principle, a new prediction model for fatigue crack initiation life (FCIL) is developed through taking the cyclic damage strain range as the damage parameter. Correlations between the mono-tonic tensile data and two of the material constants (the stress fatigue - resisting coefficient and the theoretical fatigue threshold) in the proposed FCIL prediction model are founded as well. In contrast to Zhengs model, the fatigue ductility exponent contained in the proposed FCIL prediction model is a material constant which doesn't identically equal to the constant value -0.5. Besides, the fatigue ductility exponent shows the damage resistance ability of the material. The expressions of fatigue life curves with given survivability ( PSN curves) for 45 steel notched specimen are developed on the basis of the proposed FCIL predication model. In comparison with the Zhengs model - based PSN curves, the new PSN curves can be used to predict the fatigue life with given survivability of 45 steel better.

  2. Learning-based Nonlinear Model Predictive Control to Improve Vision-based Mobile Robot Path Tracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-07-01

    Learning -based Nonlinear Model Predictive Control to Improve Vision-based Mobile Robot Path Tracking Chris J. Ostafew Institute for Aerospace Studies... learning from experience. Schoellig et al. (2012) and Ostafew et al. (2013) present ILC algorithms for quadrotors and mobile robots, respectively...presents a Learning -based Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (LB-NMPC) algo- rithm for a path-repeating, mobile robot negotiating large-scale, GPS

  3. Individual Differences in Loss Aversion: Conscientiousness Predicts How Life Satisfaction Responds to Losses Versus Gains in Income.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, Christopher J; Wood, Alex M; Ferguson, Eamonn

    2016-04-01

    Loss aversion is considered a general pervasive bias occurring regardless of the context or the person making the decision. We hypothesized that conscientiousness would predict an aversion to losses in the financial domain. We index loss aversion by the relative impact of income losses and gains on life satisfaction. In a representative German sample (N = 105,558; replicated in a British sample, N = 33,848), with conscientiousness measured at baseline, those high on conscientiousness have the strongest reactions to income losses, suggesting a pronounced loss aversion effect, whereas for those moderately unconscientious, there is no loss aversion effect. Our research (a) provides the first evidence of personality moderation of any loss aversion phenomena, (b) supports contextual perspectives that both personality and situational factors need to be examined in combination, (c) shows that the small but robust relationship between income and life satisfaction is driven primarily by a subset of people experiencing highly impactful losses.

  4. Ontology-Based Prediction and Prioritization of Gene Functional Annotations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chicco, Davide; Masseroli, Marco

    2016-01-01

    Genes and their protein products are essential molecular units of a living organism. The knowledge of their functions is key for the understanding of physiological and pathological biological processes, as well as in the development of new drugs and therapies. The association of a gene or protein with its functions, described by controlled terms of biomolecular terminologies or ontologies, is named gene functional annotation. Very many and valuable gene annotations expressed through terminologies and ontologies are available. Nevertheless, they might include some erroneous information, since only a subset of annotations are reviewed by curators. Furthermore, they are incomplete by definition, given the rapidly evolving pace of biomolecular knowledge. In this scenario, computational methods that are able to quicken the annotation curation process and reliably suggest new annotations are very important. Here, we first propose a computational pipeline that uses different semantic and machine learning methods to predict novel ontology-based gene functional annotations; then, we introduce a new semantic prioritization rule to categorize the predicted annotations by their likelihood of being correct. Our tests and validations proved the effectiveness of our pipeline and prioritization of predicted annotations, by selecting as most likely manifold predicted annotations that were later confirmed.

  5. Porosity prediction of calcium phosphate cements based on chemical composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Öhman, Caroline; Unosson, Johanna; Carlsson, Elin; Ginebra, Maria Pau; Persson, Cecilia; Engqvist, Håkan

    2015-07-01

    The porosity of calcium phosphate cements has an impact on several important parameters, such as strength, resorbability and bioactivity. A model to predict the porosity for biomedical cements would hence be a useful tool. At the moment such a model only exists for Portland cements. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a first porosity prediction model for calcium phosphate cements. On the basis of chemical reaction, molar weight and density of components, a volume-based model was developed and validated using calcium phosphate cement as model material. 60 mol% β-tricalcium phosphate and 40 mol% monocalcium phosphate monohydrate were mixed with deionized water, at different liquid-to-powder ratios. Samples were set for 24 h at 37°C and 100% relative humidity. Thereafter, samples were dried either under vacuum at room temperature for 24 h or in air at 37 °C for 7 days. Porosity and phase composition were determined. It was found that the two drying protocols led to the formation of brushite and monetite, respectively. The model was found to predict well the experimental values and also data reported in the literature for apatite cements, as deduced from the small absolute average residual errors (brushite, monetite and apatite cements. The model gives a good estimate of the final porosity and has the potential to be used as a porosity prediction tool in the biomedical cement field.

  6. Neural Network Based Model for Predicting Housing Market Performance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ahmed Khalafallah

    2008-01-01

    The United States real estate market is currently facing its worst hit in two decades due to the slowdown of housing sales. The most affected by this decline are real estate investors and home develop-ers who are currently struggling to break-even financially on their investments. For these investors, it is of utmost importance to evaluate the current status of the market and predict its performance over the short-term in order to make appropriate financial decisions. This paper presents the development of artificial neu-ral network based models to support real estate investors and home developers in this critical task. The pa-per describes the decision variables, design methodology, and the implementation of these models. The models utilize historical market performance data sets to train the artificial neural networks in order to pre-dict unforeseen future performances. An application example is analyzed to demonstrate the model capabili-ties in analyzing and predicting the market performance. The model testing and validation showed that the error in prediction is in the range between -2% and +2%.

  7. Reflectance Prediction Modelling for Residual-Based Hyperspectral Image Coding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Rui; Gao, Junbin; Bossomaier, Terry

    2016-01-01

    A Hyperspectral (HS) image provides observational powers beyond human vision capability but represents more than 100 times the data compared to a traditional image. To transmit and store the huge volume of an HS image, we argue that a fundamental shift is required from the existing “original pixel intensity”-based coding approaches using traditional image coders (e.g., JPEG2000) to the “residual”-based approaches using a video coder for better compression performance. A modified video coder is required to exploit spatial-spectral redundancy using pixel-level reflectance modelling due to the different characteristics of HS images in their spectral and shape domain of panchromatic imagery compared to traditional videos. In this paper a novel coding framework using Reflectance Prediction Modelling (RPM) in the latest video coding standard High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC) for HS images is proposed. An HS image presents a wealth of data where every pixel is considered a vector for different spectral bands. By quantitative comparison and analysis of pixel vector distribution along spectral bands, we conclude that modelling can predict the distribution and correlation of the pixel vectors for different bands. To exploit distribution of the known pixel vector, we estimate a predicted current spectral band from the previous bands using Gaussian mixture-based modelling. The predicted band is used as the additional reference band together with the immediate previous band when we apply the HEVC. Every spectral band of an HS image is treated like it is an individual frame of a video. In this paper, we compare the proposed method with mainstream encoders. The experimental results are fully justified by three types of HS dataset with different wavelength ranges. The proposed method outperforms the existing mainstream HS encoders in terms of rate-distortion performance of HS image compression. PMID:27695102

  8. Life Skills-Based HIV Education: Some Virtues and Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, David; Yankah, Ekua; Aggleton, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Since the early 1990s, life skills education has benefitted substantially from international agency advocacy and support, linked to its implementation in several countries as a key component of the education sector response to sexual health and HIV. The concept of life skills was first promoted by the World Health Organization through its…

  9. Predicting married and cohabiting couples' futures from their descriptions of stepfamily life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slattery, Maddy E; Bruce, Vanessa; Halford, W Kim; Nicholson, Jan M

    2011-08-01

    Stepfamily couples experience specific challenges early in their relationships, (e.g., reaching agreement on the role of the stepparent in parenting). The Oral History Interview for Stepfamilies (OHI-S) was developed to assess spouses' cognitive representations of their adaptation to these challenges. It was hypothesized that their responses would predict future relationship satisfaction and stability. One-hundred and 22 stepfamily couples completed the OHI-S and were assessed on relationship satisfaction and stability at Time 1 and 2.5 years later (Time 2). Time 2 relationship satisfaction and stability were both predicted by the OHI-S at Time 1. Couples' perceptions of the stepfamily and couple relationship predict separation, and suggest there is an opportunity for early intervention to enhance stepfamily couple relationships.

  10. Noncontact monitoring of surface-wave nonlinearity for predicting the remaining life of fatigued steels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogi, Hirotsugu; Hirao, Masahiko; Aoki, Shinji

    2001-07-01

    A nonlinear acoustic measurement is studied for fatigue damage monitoring. An electromagnetic acoustic transducer (EMAT) magnetostrictively couples to a surface-shear-wave resonance along the circumference of a rod specimen during rotating bending fatigue of carbon steels. Excitation of the EMAT at half of the resonance frequency caused the standing wave to contain only the second-harmonic component, which was received by the same EMAT to determine the second-harmonic amplitude. Thus measured surface-wave nonlinearity always showed two distinct peaks at 60% and 85% of the total life. We attribute the earlier peak to crack nucleation and growth, and the later peak to an increase of free dislocations associated with crack extension in the final stage. This noncontact resonance-EMAT measurement can monitor the evolution of the surface-shear-wave nonlinearity throughout the metal's fatigue life and detect the pertinent precursors of the eventual failure.

  11. Quality guaranteed aggregation based model predictive control and stability analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI DeWei; XI YuGeng

    2009-01-01

    The input aggregation strategy can reduce the online computational burden of the model predictive controller. But generally aggregation based MPC controller may lead to poor control quality. Therefore, a new concept, equivalent aggregation, is proposed to guarantee the control quality of aggregation based MPC. From the general framework of input linear aggregation, the design methods of equivalent aggregation are developed for unconstrained and terminal zero constrained MPC, which guarantee the actual control inputs exactly to be equal to that of the original MPC. For constrained MPC, quasi-equivalent aggregation strategies are also discussed, aiming to make the difference between the control inputs of aggregation based MPC and original MPC as small as possible. The stability conditions are given for the quasi-equivalent aggregation based MPC as well.

  12. Predicting the effective thermal conductivity of carbon nanotube based nanofluids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sastry, N N Venkata; Bhunia, Avijit; Sundararajan, T; Das, Sarit K [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Madras, Chennai 600 036 (India)

    2008-02-06

    Adding a small volume fraction of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) to a liquid enhances the thermal conductivity significantly. Recent experimental findings report an anomalously wide range of enhancement values that continue to perplex the research community and remain unexplained. In this paper we present a theoretical model based on three-dimensional CNT chain formation (percolation) in the base liquid and the corresponding thermal resistance network. The model considers random CNT orientation and CNT-CNT interaction forming the percolating chain. Predictions are in good agreement with almost all available experimental data. Results show that the enhancement critically depends on the CNT geometry (length), volume fraction, thermal conductivity of the base liquid and the nanofluid (CNT-liquid suspension) preparation technique. Based on the physical mechanism of heat conduction in the nanofluid, we introduce a new dimensionless parameter that alone characterizes the nanofluid thermal conductivity with reasonable accuracy ({approx} {+-} 5%)

  13. Predicting the effective thermal conductivity of carbon nanotube based nanofluids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkata Sastry, N N; Bhunia, Avijit; Sundararajan, T; Das, Sarit K

    2008-02-06

    Adding a small volume fraction of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) to a liquid enhances the thermal conductivity significantly. Recent experimental findings report an anomalously wide range of enhancement values that continue to perplex the research community and remain unexplained. In this paper we present a theoretical model based on three-dimensional CNT chain formation (percolation) in the base liquid and the corresponding thermal resistance network. The model considers random CNT orientation and CNT-CNT interaction forming the percolating chain. Predictions are in good agreement with almost all available experimental data. Results show that the enhancement critically depends on the CNT geometry (length), volume fraction, thermal conductivity of the base liquid and the nanofluid (CNT-liquid suspension) preparation technique. Based on the physical mechanism of heat conduction in the nanofluid, we introduce a new dimensionless parameter that alone characterizes the nanofluid thermal conductivity with reasonable accuracy (∼ ± 5%).

  14. Prediction and reconstruction of future and missing unobservable modified Weibull lifetime based on generalized order statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amany E. Aly

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available When a system consisting of independent components of the same type, some appropriate actions may be done as soon as a portion of them have failed. It is, therefore, important to be able to predict later failure times from earlier ones. One of the well-known failure distributions commonly used to model component life, is the modified Weibull distribution (MWD. In this paper, two pivotal quantities are proposed to construct prediction intervals for future unobservable lifetimes based on generalized order statistics (gos from MWD. Moreover, a pivotal quantity is developed to reconstruct missing observations at the beginning of experiment. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted and numerical computations are carried out to investigate the efficiency of presented results. Finally, two illustrative examples for real data sets are analyzed.

  15. Statistics-Based Prediction Analysis for Head and Neck Cancer Tumor Deformation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Azimi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of the current radiation therapy planning systems, which are based on pre-treatment Computer Tomography (CT images, assume that the tumor geometry does not change during the course of treatment. However, tumor geometry is shown to be changing over time. We propose a methodology to monitor and predict daily size changes of head and neck cancer tumors during the entire radiation therapy period. Using collected patients' CT scan data, MATLAB routines are developed to quantify the progressive geometric changes occurring in patients during radiation therapy. Regression analysis is implemented to develop predictive models for tumor size changes through entire period. The generated models are validated using leave-one-out cross validation. The proposed method will increase the accuracy of therapy and improve patient's safety and quality of life by reducing the number of harmful unnecessary CT scans.

  16. Fatigue Analysis and Life Prediction of Dumpers with Cumulative Fatigue Damage Approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Shouju; LIU Yingxi; SUN Huiling

    2004-01-01

    A fatigue damage model is developed for evaluating accumulative fatigue damage of dumpers. The loading spectrums acted on dumpers are created according to measured strain data in field. The finite element analysis is carried out for assessing stress distribution and strength characteristics of dumpers. Fatigue damage indexes and service life are calculated by a modified Palmgren-Miner rule. The investigation shows that fatigue notch factor has a significant influence on the calculation of fatigue damage of dumpers.

  17. Self-care and Professional Quality of Life: Predictive Factors among MSW Practitioners

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kori R Bloomquist

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This study explored the effects of self-care practices and perceptions on positive and negative indicators of professional quality of life, including burnout, secondary traumatic stress, and compassion satisfaction among MSW practitioners. Results reveal that while social workers value and believe self-care is effective in alleviating job-related stress, they engage in self-care on a limited basis. Findings indicate that MSW programs and employers do not teach social workers how to effectively engage in self-care practice. Various domains of self-care practice contribute differently to indicators of professional quality of life. This study sheds light on the under-studied relationship between social worker self-care and professional quality of life, provides insights into the types of activities practiced and not practiced by MSW practitioners, and identifies gaps between perceived value and effective teaching of self-care. Implications exist for social work educators and employers and the potential to support a healthier, sustainable workforce.

  18. Symptoms of borderline personality disorder predict interpersonal (but not independent) stressful life events in a community sample of older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Abigail D; Gleason, Marci E J; Oltmanns, Thomas F

    2013-05-01

    Individuals with borderline personality disorder (BPD) often experience stressful life events at a higher frequency than those without BPD. It is less clear what specific types of events are involved in this effect, and it has not been determined whether some features of BPD are more important than others in accounting for this effect. The latter issue is important in light of the heterogeneous nature of this diagnostic construct. These issues were examined in a large, representative community sample of men and women, ages 55-64. Ten Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed., text rev., DSM-IV-TR, Washington, DC, American Psychiatric Association, 2000) personality disorders were assessed at baseline using the Structured Interview for DSM-IV Personality: SIDP-IV (B. Pfohl, N. Blum, & M. Zimmerman, 1997, Washington, DC, American Psychiatric Press). Life events were measured at three sequential assessments following baseline at 6-month (N = 1,294), 12-month (N = 1,070), and 18-month (N = 837) follow-ups. Stressful life events were identified using a self-report questionnaire (LTE-Q; List of Threatening Experiences Questionnaire: A subset of prescribed life events with considerable long-term contextual threat by T. Brugha, C. Bebbington, P. Tennant, and J. Hurry, 1985, Psychological Medicine, Vol. 15, pp. 189-194.) followed by a telephone interview. Only borderline personality pathology was related to an increase in the frequency of interpersonal stressful life events. Three specific symptoms of BPD were largely responsible for this connection: unstable interpersonal relationships, impulsivity, and chronic feelings of emptiness (negative association). Symptoms of avoidant and schizoid personality disorders were associated with a reduced number of stressful life events that are considered to be outside a person's control (e.g., serious illness, injury, or death of a loved one). None of the personality disorders predicted an increase in the number of

  19. Imputation for transcription factor binding predictions based on deep learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Qian

    2017-01-01

    Understanding the cell-specific binding patterns of transcription factors (TFs) is fundamental to studying gene regulatory networks in biological systems, for which ChIP-seq not only provides valuable data but is also considered as the gold standard. Despite tremendous efforts from the scientific community to conduct TF ChIP-seq experiments, the available data represent only a limited percentage of ChIP-seq experiments, considering all possible combinations of TFs and cell lines. In this study, we demonstrate a method for accurately predicting cell-specific TF binding for TF-cell line combinations based on only a small fraction (4%) of the combinations using available ChIP-seq data. The proposed model, termed TFImpute, is based on a deep neural network with a multi-task learning setting to borrow information across transcription factors and cell lines. Compared with existing methods, TFImpute achieves comparable accuracy on TF-cell line combinations with ChIP-seq data; moreover, TFImpute achieves better accuracy on TF-cell line combinations without ChIP-seq data. This approach can predict cell line specific enhancer activities in K562 and HepG2 cell lines, as measured by massively parallel reporter assays, and predicts the impact of SNPs on TF binding. PMID:28234893

  20. Prediction of adolescent and adult adiposity outcomes from early life anthropometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graversen, Lise; Sørensen, Thorkild I A; Gerds, Thomas A;

    2014-01-01

    to the NFBC1986, and aimed at labelling 10% as "at risk" on the basis of anthropometric information collected until 5 years of age showed that half of those at risk in fact did become overweight. This group constituted one-third of all who became overweight. CONCLUSIONS: Our prediction model identified...

  1. Adaptive quality prediction of batch processes based on PLS model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Chun-fu; ZHANG Jie; WANG Gui-zeng

    2006-01-01

    There are usually no on-line product quality measurements in batch and semi-batch processes,which make the process control task very difficult.In this paper,a model for predicting the end-product quality from the available on-line process variables at the early stage of a batch is developed using partial least squares (PLS)method.Furthermore,some available mid-course quality measurements are used to rectify the final prediction results.To deal with the problem that the process may change with time,recursive PLS (RPLS) algorithm is used to update the model based on the new batch data and the old model parameters after each batch.An application to a simulated batch MMA polymerization process demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  2. Prediction of speech intelligibility based on an auditory preprocessing model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Claus Forup Corlin; Pedersen, Michael Syskind; Dau, Torsten

    2010-01-01

    Classical speech intelligibility models, such as the speech transmission index (STI) and the speech intelligibility index (SII) are based on calculations on the physical acoustic signals. The present study predicts speech intelligibility by combining a psychoacoustically validated model of auditory...... preprocessing [Dau et al., 1997. J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 102, 2892-2905] with a simple central stage that describes the similarity of the test signal with the corresponding reference signal at a level of the internal representation of the signals. The model was compared with previous approaches, whereby a speech...... in noise experiment was used for training and an ideal binary mask experiment was used for evaluation. All three models were able to capture the trends in the speech in noise training data well, but the proposed model provides a better prediction of the binary mask test data, particularly when the binary...

  3. Fault prediction of fighter based on nonparametric density estimation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Zhengdao; Hu Shousong

    2005-01-01

    Fighters and other complex engineering systems have many characteristics such as difficult modeling and testing, multiple working situations, and high cost. Aim at these points, a new kind of real-time fault predictor is designed based on an improved k-nearest neighbor method, which needs neither the math model of system nor the training data and prior knowledge. It can study and predict while system's running, so that it can overcome the difficulty of data acquirement. Besides, this predictor has a fast prediction speed, and the false alarm rate and missing alarm rate can be adjusted randomly. The method is simple and universalizable. The result of simulation on fighter F-16 proved the efficiency.

  4. Human Posture and Movement Prediction based on Musculoskeletal Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farahani, Saeed Davoudabadi

    2014-01-01

    Abstract This thesis explores an optimization-based formulation, so-called inverse-inverse dynamics, for the prediction of human posture and motion dynamics performing various tasks. It is explained how this technique enables us to predict natural kinematic and kinetic patterns for human posture...... and motion using AnyBody Modeling System (AMS). AMS uses inverse dynamics to analyze musculoskeletal systems and is, therefore, limited by its dependency on input kinematics. We propose to alleviate this dependency by assuming that voluntary postures and movement strategies in humans are guided by a desire...... investigated, a scaling to the mean height and body mass may be sufficient, while other questions require subject-specific models. The movement is parameterized by means of time functions controlling selected degrees-of-freedom (DOF). Subsequently, the parameters of these functions, usually referred...

  5. The affective profiles, psychological well-being, and harmony: environmental mastery and self-acceptance predict the sense of a harmonious life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danilo Garcia

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Background. An important outcome from the debate on whether wellness equals happiness, is the need of research focusing on how psychological well-being might influence humans’ ability to adapt to the changing environment and live in harmony. To get a detailed picture of the influence of positive and negative affect, the current study employed the affective profiles model in which individuals are categorised into groups based on either high positive and low negative affect (self-fulfilling; high positive and high negative affect (high affective; low positive and low negative affect (low affective; and high negative and low positive affect (self-destructive. The aims were to (1 investigate differences between affective profiles in psychological well-being and harmony and (2 how psychological well-being and its dimensions relate to harmony within the four affective profiles.Method. 500 participants (mean age = 34.14 years, SD. = ±12.75 years; 187 males and 313 females were recruited online and required to answer three self-report measures: The Positive Affect and Negative Affect Schedule; The Scales of Psychological Well-Being (short version and The Harmony in Life Scale. We conducted a Multivariate Analysis of Variance where the affective profiles and gender were the independent factors and psychological well-being composite score, its six dimensions as well as the harmony in life score were the dependent factors. In addition, we conducted four multi-group (i.e., the four affective profiles moderation analyses with the psychological well-being dimensions as predictors and harmony in life as the dependent variables.Results. Individuals categorised as self-fulfilling, as compared to the other profiles, tended to score higher on the psychological well-being dimensions: positive relations, environmental mastery, self-acceptance, autonomy, personal growth, and purpose in life. In addition, 47% to 66% of the variance of the harmony in life was

  6. Rutting Prediction in Asphalt Pavement Based on Viscoelastic Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nahi Mohammed Hadi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Rutting is one of the most disturbing failures on the asphalt roads due to the interrupting it is caused to the drivers. Predicting of asphalt pavement rutting is essential tool leads to better asphalt mixture design. This work describes a method of predicting the behaviour of various asphalt pavement mixes and linking these to an accelerated performance testing. The objective of this study is to develop a finite element model based on viscoplastic theory for simulating the laboratory testing of asphalt mixes in Hamburg Wheel Rut Tester (HWRT for rutting. The creep parameters C1, C2 and C3 are developed from the triaxial repeated load creep test at 50°C and at a frequency of 1 Hz and the modulus of elasticity and Poisson’ s ratio determined at the same temperature. Viscoelastic model (creep model is adopted using a FE simulator (ANSYS in order to calculate the rutting for various mixes under a uniform loading pressure of 500 kPa. An eight-node with a three Degrees of Freedom (UX, UY, and UZ Element is used for the simulation. The creep model developed for HWRT tester was verified by comparing the predicted rut depths with the measured one and by comparing the rut depth with ABAQUS result from literature. Reasonable agreement can be obtained between the predicted rut depths and the measured one. Moreover, it is found that creep model parameter C1 and C3 have a strong relationship with rutting. It was clear that the parameter C1 strongly influences rutting than the parameter C3. Finally, it can be concluded that creep model based on finite element method can be used as an effective tool to analyse rutting of asphalt pavements.

  7. On the life time prediction of repeatedly impacted thermoplastic matrix composites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bora, Mustafa Ozguer [Kocaeli University, Mechanical Engineering Department, Veziroglu Campus, 41040 Izmit (Turkey)], E-mail: ozgur_bora@yahoo.com; Coban, Onur [Kocaeli University, Mechanical Engineering Department, Veziroglu Campus, 41040 Izmit (Turkey); Sinmazcelik, Tamer [Kocaeli University, Mechanical Engineering Department, Veziroglu Campus, 41040 Izmit (Turkey); TUBITAK-MAM, Materials Institute, P.O. Box 21, 41470 Gebze (Turkey); Cuerguel, Ismail [Kocaeli University, Mechanical Engineering Department, Veziroglu Campus, 41040 Izmit (Turkey); Guenay, Volkan [TUBITAK-MAM, Materials Institute, P.O. Box 21, 41470 Gebze (Turkey)

    2009-01-15

    Impact-fatigue properties of unidirectional carbon fibre reinforced polyetherimide (PEI) composites were investigated. Low velocity repeated impacts were performed by using pendulum type instrumented impact tester (Ceast, Resil 25) at energy levels ranging 0.54-0.94 J. Samples were prepared according to ISO 180 and subjected to repeated low velocity impacts up to fracture by the hammer. Results of repeated impact study are reported in terms of peak load (F{sub max}), absorbed energy (E{sub max}) and number of repeated impacts. An analytical model to describe the life time of composite materials subjected to repeated impact loadings was presented.

  8. On the development of life prediction methodologies for the failure of human teeth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nalla, R.K.; Imbeni, V.; Kinney, J.H.; Marshall, S.J.; Ritchie, R.O.

    2002-09-18

    Human dentin is known to be susceptible to failure under cyclic loading. Surprisingly, there are few reports that quantify the effect of such loading, considering the fact that a typical tooth experiences a million or so loading cycles annually. In the present study, a systematic investigation is described of the effects of prolonged cyclic loading on human dentin in a simulated physiological environment. In vitro stress-life (S/N) data are discussed in the context of possible mechanisms of fatigue damage and failure.

  9. Analysis of Sequence Based Classifier Prediction for HIV Subtypes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Santhosh Kumar

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV is a lent virus that causes acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS. The main drawback in HIV treatment process is its sub type prediction. The sub type and group classification of HIV is based on its genetic variability and location. HIV can be divided into two major types, HIV type 1 (HIV-1 and HIV type 2 (HIV-2. Many classifier approaches have been used to classify HIV subtypes based on their group, but some of cases are having two groups in one; in such cases the classification becomes more complex. The methodology used is this paper based on the HIV sequences. For this work several classifier approaches are used to classify the HIV1 and HIV2. For implementation of the work a real time patient database is taken and the patient records are experimented and the final best classifier is identified with quick response time and least error rate.

  10. LÉVY-BASED ERROR PREDICTION IN CIRCULAR SYSTEMATIC SAMPLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristjana Ýr Jónsdóttir

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper, Lévy-based error prediction in circular systematic sampling is developed. A model-based statistical setting as in Hobolth and Jensen (2002 is used, but the assumption that the measurement function is Gaussian is relaxed. The measurement function is represented as a periodic stationary stochastic process X obtained by a kernel smoothing of a Lévy basis. The process X may have an arbitrary covariance function. The distribution of the error predictor, based on measurements in n systematic directions is derived. Statistical inference is developed for the model parameters in the case where the covariance function follows the celebrated p-order covariance model.

  11. Service life prediction. Development of models for predicting the service life of power plant components subject to thermomechanical creep fatigue; Lebensdauervorhersage. Entwicklung von Modellen zur Lebensdauervorhersage von Kraftwerksbauteilen unter thermisch-mechanischer Kriechermuedungsbeanspruchung. Abschlussbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cui, L.; Scholz, A. [Technische Univ. Darmstadt (Germany). Institut fuer Werkstoffkunde; Hartrott, P. von; Schlesinger, M. [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Werkstoffmechanik (IWM), Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany)

    2009-07-01

    Extensive use is made of massive components of heat resistant and highly heat resistant materials in installations of the power and heating industry. These components are exposed to varying thermomechanical stress as a result of ramping-up and down processes. In this research project two computer-assisted methods of predicting service life until crack initiation were extended to include cases of thermomechanical multi-axis stress conducive to creep fatigue and of superposition of high-cycle stress on power plant components. Investigations were limited to rotor steel of type X12CrMoWVNbN10-1-1. Complex thermomechanical multi-axis experiments were performed on round, notched and cruciform test specimens of close-to-life dimensions in order to demonstrate by experiment the validity of these models. The results of these calculations showed an acceptable degree of agreement between experiment and simulation for both models. Calculations on earlier TMF experiments performed at IfW on hollow specimens of 1%CrMoNiV showed good predictability for both the SARA and the ThoMat programme. Calculations on experiments performed at MPA Stuttgart on model bodies consisting of the same 1%CrMoNiV showed a predictability of acceptable variability considering the complexity of the stresses involved. A further outcome of this project is that the use of SARA appears universally suitable for the construction of new plants and in the service area, while the use of ThoMat appears suited for detail optimisation in the development process.

  12. Entropy-Based Model for Interpreting Life Systems in Traditional Chinese Medicine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo-lian Kang

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM treats qi as the core of the human life systems. Starting with a hypothetical correlation between TCM qi and the entropy theory, we address in this article a holistic model for evaluating and unveiling the rule of TCM life systems. Several new concepts such as acquired life entropy (ALE, acquired life entropy flow (ALEF and acquired life entropy production (ALEP are propounded to interpret TCM life systems. Using the entropy theory, mathematical models are established for ALE, ALEF and ALEP, which reflect the evolution of life systems. Some criteria are given on physiological activities and pathological changes of the body in different stages of life. Moreover, a real data-based simulation shows life entropies of the human body with different ages, Cold and Hot constitutions and in different seasons in North China are coincided with the manifestations of qi as well as the life evolution in TCM descriptions. Especially, based on the comparative and quantitative analysis, the entropy-based model can nicely describe the evolution of life entropies in Cold and Hot individuals thereby fitting the Yin–Yang theory in TCM. Thus, this work establishes a novel approach to interpret the fundamental principles in TCM, and provides an alternative understanding for the complex life systems.

  13. Life Satisfaction among Highly Achieving Students in Hong Kong: Do Gratitude and the "Good-Enough Mindset" Add to the Contribution of Perfectionism in Prediction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, David W.

    2012-01-01

    This study investigated whether gratitude and the "good-enough mindset" added to the contribution of perfectionism in predicting life satisfaction in 245 Chinese highly achieving students in Hong Kong. Participants completed self-report questionnaires that included scales on life satisfaction, positive and negative perfectionism…

  14. Algorithmic aspects of analysis, prediction, and control in science and engineering an approach based on symmetry and similarity

    CERN Document Server

    Nava, Jaime

    2015-01-01

    This book demonstrates how to describe and analyze a system's behavior and extract the desired prediction and control algorithms from this analysis. A typical prediction is based on observing similar situations in the past, knowing the outcomes of these past situations, and expecting that the future outcome of the current situation will be similar to these past observed outcomes. In mathematical terms, similarity corresponds to symmetry, and similarity of outcomes to invariance.   This book shows how symmetries can be used in all classes of algorithmic problems of sciences and engineering: from analysis to prediction to control. Applications cover chemistry, geosciences, intelligent control, neural networks, quantum physics, and thermal physics. Specifically, it is shown how the approach based on symmetry and similarity can be used in the analysis of real-life systems, in the algorithms of prediction, and in the algorithms of control.

  15. Results from raw milk microbiological tests do not predict the shelf-life performance of commercially pasteurized fluid milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, N H; Ranieri, M L; Murphy, S C; Ralyea, R D; Wiedmann, M; Boor, K J

    2011-03-01

    Analytical tools that accurately predict the performance of raw milk following its manufacture into commercial food products are of economic interest to the dairy industry. To evaluate the ability of currently applied raw milk microbiological tests to predict the quality of commercially pasteurized fluid milk products, samples of raw milk and 2% fat pasteurized milk were obtained from 4 New York State fluid milk processors for a 1-yr period. Raw milk samples were examined using a variety of tests commonly applied to raw milk, including somatic cell count, standard plate count, psychrotrophic bacteria count, ropy milk test, coliform count, preliminary incubation count, laboratory pasteurization count, and spore pasteurization count. Differential and selective media were used to identify groups of bacteria present in raw milk. Pasteurized milk samples were held at 6°C for 21 d and evaluated for standard plate count, coliform count, and sensory quality throughout shelf-life. Bacterial isolates from select raw and pasteurized milk tests were identified using 16S ribosomal DNA sequencing. Linear regression analysis of raw milk test results versus results reflecting pasteurized milk quality consistently showed low R(2) values (<0.45); the majority of R(2) values were <0.25, indicating small relationship between the results from the raw milk tests and results from tests used to evaluate pasteurized milk quality. Our findings suggest the need for new raw milk tests that measure the specific biological barriers that limit shelf-life and quality of fluid milk products.

  16. Role of nutritional status in predicting quality of life outcomes in cancer--a systematic review of the epidemiological literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lis, Christopher G; Gupta, Digant; Lammersfeld, Carolyn A; Markman, Maurie; Vashi, Pankaj G

    2012-04-24

    Malnutrition is a significant factor in predicting cancer patients' quality of life (QoL). We systematically reviewed the literature on the role of nutritional status in predicting QoL in cancer. We searched MEDLINE database using the terms "nutritional status" in combination with "quality of life" together with "cancer". Human studies published in English, having nutritional status as one of the predictor variables, and QoL as one of the outcome measures were included. Of the 26 included studies, 6 investigated head and neck cancer, 8 gastrointestinal, 1 lung, 1 gynecologic and 10 heterogeneous cancers. 24 studies concluded that better nutritional status was associated with better QoL, 1 study showed that better nutritional status was associated with better QoL only in high-risk patients, while 1 study concluded that there was no association between nutritional status and QoL. Nutritional status is a strong predictor of QoL in cancer patients. We recommend that more providers implement the American Society of Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition (ASPEN) guidelines for oncology patients, which includes nutritional screening, nutritional assessment and intervention as appropriate. Correcting malnutrition may improve QoL in cancer patients, an important outcome of interest to cancer patients, their caregivers, and families.

  17. Construction of life-practice moral education based on traditional Chinese morality with life connotation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yi Lian-yun; Peng Jing

    2006-01-01

    The actual effect is a big problem in current school moral education.By analyzing the problems in the theory and practice of the current school moral education,the author points out that the reason is that,for a long time,the meaning of morality has been dissimilated,and moral education is considered as a kind of knowledge input and neglecting it is the lifestyle of human beings.By exploring the meaning of morality in the traditional Chinese culture,the author fully affirmed the rich life connotation both in the dynamic conversion between Tao and virtue and in the Taoist saying"Great virtue is growth".In the article,the author suggests that nowadays,we should reconsider and understand the moral connotation in traditional culture and explain the traditional morals in a modern way.It is also necessary to construct a new moral education system such as a "life-practice"model.

  18. Predicting activity approach based on new atoms similarity kernel function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abu El-Atta, Ahmed H; Moussa, M I; Hassanien, Aboul Ella

    2015-07-01

    Drug design is a high cost and long term process. To reduce time and costs for drugs discoveries, new techniques are needed. Chemoinformatics field implements the informational techniques and computer science like machine learning and graph theory to discover the chemical compounds properties, such as toxicity or biological activity. This is done through analyzing their molecular structure (molecular graph). To overcome this problem there is an increasing need for algorithms to analyze and classify graph data to predict the activity of molecules. Kernels methods provide a powerful framework which combines machine learning with graph theory techniques. These kernels methods have led to impressive performance results in many several chemoinformatics problems like biological activity prediction. This paper presents a new approach based on kernel functions to solve activity prediction problem for chemical compounds. First we encode all atoms depending on their neighbors then we use these codes to find a relationship between those atoms each other. Then we use relation between different atoms to find similarity between chemical compounds. The proposed approach was compared with many other classification methods and the results show competitive accuracy with these methods.

  19. Model Predictive Control-Based Fast Charging for Vehicular Batteries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhibin Song

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Battery fast charging is one of the most significant and difficult techniques affecting the commercialization of electric vehicles (EVs. In this paper, we propose a fast charge framework based on model predictive control, with the aim of simultaneously reducing the charge duration, which represents the out-of-service time of vehicles, and the increase in temperature, which represents safety and energy efficiency during the charge process. The RC model is employed to predict the future State of Charge (SOC. A single mode lumped-parameter thermal model and a neural network trained by real experimental data are also applied to predict the future temperature in simulations and experiments respectively. A genetic algorithm is then applied to find the best charge sequence under a specified fitness function, which consists of two objectives: minimizing the charging duration and minimizing the increase in temperature. Both simulation and experiment demonstrate that the Pareto front of the proposed method dominates that of the most popular constant current constant voltage (CCCV charge method.

  20. Bathymetry Prediction Based on the Admittance Theory of Gravity Anomalies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    OUYANG Mingda

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Based on the admittance theory of gravity anomalies, the method of bathymetry prediction was studied in detail in this paper. In frequency domains, the correlation between gravity anomalies and bathymetry was analyzed, which suggests that the wavelength band correlated strongly was in a range of 20—300 km, this band was appropriated to inverse bathymetry by gravity anomalies. Took the Emperor Chain as an example, the uncompensated admittance model and flexural isostatic admittance model were used for researching, respectively, the included parameter of crust thickness and effective elastic thickness were calculated by the isostatic response function. As the down continuation factor was unstable, a high-cut filter was proposed in the inversion procedure to ensure convergence of series. The results showed that, the admittance theory of gravity anomalies can be used effectively in the bathymetry prediction, the predicted result was real and reliable, the relative precision was approximately 6%, which was equal to ETOPO1 model, and the detailed feature of sea floor which was not showed in ETOPO1 model can also be depicted; the precisions were not so well in areas of ocean mountains intensively distributed because of the complexion of the sea floor.

  1. Time series prediction of mining subsidence based on a SVM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Peixian; Tan Zhixiang; Yah Lili; Deng Kazhong

    2011-01-01

    In order to study dynamic laws of surface movements over coal mines due to mining activities,a dynamic prediction model of surface movements was established,based on the theory of support vector machines (SVM) and times-series analysis.An engineering application was used to verify the correctness of the model.Measurements from observation stations were analyzed and processed to obtain equal-time interval surface movement data and subjected to tests of stationary,zero means and normality.Then the data were used to train the SVM model.A time series model was established to predict mining subsidence by rational choices of embedding dimensions and SVM parameters.MAPE and WIA were used asindicators to evaluate the accuracy of the model and for generalization performance.In the end,the model was used to predict future surface movements.Data from observation stations in Huaibei coal mining area were used as an example.The results show that the maximum absolute error of subsidence is 9 mm,the maximum relative error 1.5%.the maximum absolute error of displacement 7 mm and the maximum relative error 1.8%.The accuracy and reliability of the model meet the requirements of on-site engineering.The results of the study provide a new approach to investigate the dynamics of surface movements.

  2. Predicting dispersal distance in mammals: a trait-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitmee, Sarah; Orme, C David L

    2013-01-01

    Dispersal is one of the principal mechanisms influencing ecological and evolutionary processes but quantitative empirical data are unfortunately scarce. As dispersal is likely to influence population responses to climate change, whether by adaptation or by migration, there is an urgent need to obtain estimates of dispersal distance. Cross-species correlative approaches identifying predictors of dispersal distance can provide much-needed insights into this data-scarce area. Here, we describe the compilation of a new data set of natal dispersal distances and use it to test life-history predictors of dispersal distance in mammals and examine the strength of the phylogenetic signal in dispersal distance. We find that both maximum and median dispersal distances have strong phylogenetic signals. No single model performs best in describing either maximum or median dispersal distances when phylogeny is taken into account but many models show high explanatory power, suggesting that dispersal distance per generation can be estimated for mammals with comparatively little data availability. Home range area, geographic range size and body mass are identified as the most important terms across models. Cross-validation of models supports the ability of these variables to predict dispersal distances, suggesting that models may be extended to species where dispersal distance is unknown.

  3. Sex differences in cognitive ageing: testing predictions derived from life-history theory in a dioecious nematode.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwoinska, Martyna K; Kolm, Niclas; Maklakov, Alexei A

    2013-12-01

    Life-history theory maintains that organisms allocate limited resources to different traits to maximize fitness. Learning ability and memory are costly and known to trade-off with longevity in invertebrates. However, since the relationship between longevity and fitness often differs between the sexes, it is likely that sexes will differentially resolve the trade-off between learning and longevity. We used an established associative learning paradigm in the dioecious nematode Caenorhabditis remanei, which is sexually dimorphic for lifespan, to study age-related learning ability in males and females. In particular, we tested the hypothesis that females (the shorter-lived sex) show higher learning ability than males early in life but senesce faster. Indeed, young females outperformed young males in learning a novel association between an odour (butanone) and food (bacteria). However, while learning ability and offspring production declined rapidly with age in females, males maintained high levels of these traits until mid-age. These results not only demonstrate sexual dimorphism in age-related learning ability but also suggest that it conforms to predictions derived from the life-history theory.

  4. Clinical and psychosocial factors predicting health-related quality of life in hemodialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Gun Woo; Lee, In Hee; Ahn, Ki Sung; Lee, Jonghun; Ji, Yunmi; Woo, Jungmin

    2015-07-01

    Many patients with end-stage renal disease have significant impairment in health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Most previous studies have focused on clinical factors; however, quality of life can also be affected by psychosocial factors. The aim of this study was to identify the possible predictors of HRQoL among clinical and psychosocial factors in hemodialysis (HD) patients. The study included 101 patients who were undergoing HD. Psychosocial factors were evaluated using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support, Montreal Cognitive Assessment, and Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index. We also assessed laboratory and clinical factors, including albumin, Kt/V as a marker of dialysis adequacy, normalized protein catabolic rate, and duration of HD. The Euro Quality of Life Questionnaire 5-Dimensional Classification (EQ-5D) was used to evaluate HRQoL. The mean EQ-5D index score was 0.704 ± 0.199. The following variables showed a significant association with the EQ-5D index: age (P < 0.001), depression (P < 0.001), anxiety (P < 0.001), support from friends (P < 0.001), cognitive function (P < 0.001), duration of HD (P = 0.034), triglyceride (P = 0.031), total iron-binding capacity (P = 0.036), and phosphorus (P = 0.037). Multiple regression analysis showed that age (95% confidence interval [CI] -0.008 to -0.002), anxiety (95% CI -0.025 to -0.009), and support from friends (95% CI 0.004 to 0.018) were independent predictors of impaired HRQoL. This study explored determinants of impaired HRQoL in HD patients. We found that impaired HRQoL was independently associated with age, anxiety, and support from friends. We should consider psychosocial as well as clinical factors when evaluating ways to improve HRQoL in HD patients.

  5. Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O'Brien Megan E

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An accurate forecast of global demand is essential to stabilize the market for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT and to ensure access to high-quality, life-saving medications at the lowest sustainable prices by avoiding underproduction and excessive overproduction, each of which can have negative consequences for the availability of affordable drugs. A robust forecast requires an understanding of the resources available to support procurement of these relatively expensive antimalarials, in particular from the Global Fund, at present the single largest source of ACT funding. Methods Predictive regression models estimating the timing and rate of disbursements from the Global Fund to recipient countries for each malaria grant were derived using a repeated split-sample procedure intended to avoid over-fitting. Predictions were compared against actual disbursements in a group of validation grants, and forecasts of ACT procurement extrapolated from disbursement predictions were evaluated against actual procurement in two sub-Saharan countries. Results Quarterly forecasts were correlated highly with actual smoothed disbursement rates (r = 0.987, p Conclusion This analysis derived predictive regression models that successfully forecasted disbursement patterning for individual Global Fund malaria grants. These results indicate the utility of this approach for demand forecasting of ACT and, potentially, for other commodities procured using funding from the Global Fund. Further validation using data from other countries in different regions and environments will be necessary to confirm its generalizability.

  6. Life Prediction and Classification of Failure Modes in Solid State Luminaires Using Bayesian Probabilistic Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lall, Pradeep; Wei, Junchao; Sakalaukus, Peter

    2014-05-27

    A new method has been developed for assessment of the onset of degradation in solid state luminaires to classify failure mechanisms by using metrics beyond lumen degradation that are currently used for identification of failure. Luminous Flux output, Correlated Color Temperature Data on Philips LED Lamps has been gathered under 85°C/85%RH till lamp failure. The acquired data has been used in conjunction with Bayesian Probabilistic Models to identify luminaires with onset of degradation much prior to failure through identification of decision boundaries between lamps with accrued damage and lamps beyond the failure threshold in the feature space. In addition luminaires with different failure modes have been classified separately from healthy pristine luminaires. It is expected that, the new test technique will allow the development of failure distributions without testing till L70 life for the manifestation of failure.

  7. Preadmission quality of life can predict mortality in intensive care unit—A prospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bukan, Ramin I; Møller, Ann M; Henning, Mattias A S

    2014-01-01

    PURPOSE: We sought to investigate whether preadmission quality of life could act as a predictor of mortality among patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a prospective observational study of all patients above the age of 18 years admitted to the ICU...... regarding ICU admission and deserves more attention by those caring for critically ill patients....... with a length of stay longer than 24 hours. Short form 36 (SF-36) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) were used. Mortality was assessed during ICU admission, 30, and 90 days hereafter. RESULTS: We included 318 patients. No patients were lost to follow-up. Using the physical...

  8. Bayesian Models for Life Prediction and Fault-Mode Classification in Solid State Lamps

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lall, Pradeep; Wei, Junchao; Sakalaukus, Peter

    2015-04-19

    A new method has been developed for assessment of the onset of degradation in solid state luminaires to classifY failure mechanisms by using metrics beyond lumen degradation that are currently used for identification of failure. Luminous Flux output, Correlated Color Temperature Data on Philips LED Lamps has been gathered under 85°C/85%RH till lamp failure. The acquired data has been used in conjunction with Bayesian Probabilistic Models to identifY luminaires with onset of degradation much prior to failure through identification of decision boundaries between lamps with accrued damage and lamps beyond the failure threshold in the feature space. In addition luminaires with different failure modes have been classified separately from healthy pristine luminaires. It is expected that, the new test technique will allow the development of failure distributions without testing till L 70 life for the manifestation of failure.

  9. Does health-related quality of lifepredict injury event?‎

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kambiz Abachizadeh

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Unintentional injury is a leading threat to children's health. Some human ‎factors have been determined as predictor of unintentional injury. Association ‎between Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQOL as a human factor and unintentional ‎injuries is unclear. The objective of study is to examine the association between ‎HRQOL and unintentional injuries among primary school children. Methods: This study was a cross-sectional conducted in Ahwaz, a city in Iran. ‎Overall, 3375 children aged 6-10 years were randomly selected from primary school. ‎HRQOL was measured by 56 items taken from seven domains of Netherlands ‎Organization for Applied Scientific Research Academic Medical Center (TNO AZL ‎child quality of life (TACQOL parent form. Parents were interviewed to collect ‎information about incidence, cause and a brief description of injury within the past 12 ‎months prior to the study.‎ Results: The response rate was 3375 of 3792 (89%. There was a significant trend ‎for increasing occurrence of injury with decreasing of HRQOL score (P= Sig. ‎Adjusted OR for injury was significantly higher in very low (2.38, 95% CI: 1.45-‎‎3.86, low (2.18, 95% CI: 1.34-3.56, and medium (1.73, 95%CI: 1.06-2.83 ‎HRQOL groups compared to reference group (very high HRQOL. The median of total ‎HRQOL (P= Sig and all its domains (P=0.017 (except autonomous functioning ‎was lower in injured group compared to uninjured one.‎ Conclusions: This study found an association between HRQOL and unintentional ‎injury among primary school children. This is a preliminary finding and further ‎investigations with a well-defined analytical design are needed.‎

  10. A general framework for multivariate multi-index drought prediction based on Multivariate Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (MESP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Zengchao; Hao, Fanghua; Singh, Vijay P.

    2016-08-01

    Drought is among the costliest natural hazards worldwide and extreme drought events in recent years have caused huge losses to various sectors. Drought prediction is therefore critically important for providing early warning information to aid decision making to cope with drought. Due to the complicated nature of drought, it has been recognized that the univariate drought indicator may not be sufficient for drought characterization and hence multivariate drought indices have been developed for drought monitoring. Alongside the substantial effort in drought monitoring with multivariate drought indices, it is of equal importance to develop a drought prediction method with multivariate drought indices to integrate drought information from various sources. This study proposes a general framework for multivariate multi-index drought prediction that is capable of integrating complementary prediction skills from multiple drought indices. The Multivariate Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (MESP) is employed to sample from historical records for obtaining statistical prediction of multiple variables, which is then used as inputs to achieve multivariate prediction. The framework is illustrated with a linearly combined drought index (LDI), which is a commonly used multivariate drought index, based on climate division data in California and New York in the United States with different seasonality of precipitation. The predictive skill of LDI (represented with persistence) is assessed by comparison with the univariate drought index and results show that the LDI prediction skill is less affected by seasonality than the meteorological drought prediction based on SPI. Prediction results from the case study show that the proposed multivariate drought prediction outperforms the persistence prediction, implying a satisfactory performance of multivariate drought prediction. The proposed method would be useful for drought prediction to integrate drought information from various sources

  11. Stand diameter distribution modelling and prediction based on Richards function.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ai-guo Duan

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to introduce application of the Richards equation on modelling and prediction of stand diameter distribution. The long-term repeated measurement data sets, consisted of 309 diameter frequency distributions from Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata plantations in the southern China, were used. Also, 150 stands were used as fitting data, the other 159 stands were used for testing. Nonlinear regression method (NRM or maximum likelihood estimates method (MLEM were applied to estimate the parameters of models, and the parameter prediction method (PPM and parameter recovery method (PRM were used to predict the diameter distributions of unknown stands. Four main conclusions were obtained: (1 R distribution presented a more accurate simulation than three-parametric Weibull function; (2 the parameters p, q and r of R distribution proved to be its scale, location and shape parameters, and have a deep relationship with stand characteristics, which means the parameters of R distribution have good theoretical interpretation; (3 the ordinate of inflection point of R distribution has significant relativity with its skewness and kurtosis, and the fitted main distribution range for the cumulative diameter distribution of Chinese fir plantations was 0.4∼0.6; (4 the goodness-of-fit test showed diameter distributions of unknown stands can be well estimated by applying R distribution based on PRM or the combination of PPM and PRM under the condition that only quadratic mean DBH or plus stand age are known, and the non-rejection rates were near 80%, which are higher than the 72.33% non-rejection rate of three-parametric Weibull function based on the combination of PPM and PRM.

  12. Stand diameter distribution modelling and prediction based on Richards function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Ai-guo; Zhang, Jian-guo; Zhang, Xiong-qing; He, Cai-yun

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to introduce application of the Richards equation on modelling and prediction of stand diameter distribution. The long-term repeated measurement data sets, consisted of 309 diameter frequency distributions from Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) plantations in the southern China, were used. Also, 150 stands were used as fitting data, the other 159 stands were used for testing. Nonlinear regression method (NRM) or maximum likelihood estimates method (MLEM) were applied to estimate the parameters of models, and the parameter prediction method (PPM) and parameter recovery method (PRM) were used to predict the diameter distributions of unknown stands. Four main conclusions were obtained: (1) R distribution presented a more accurate simulation than three-parametric Weibull function; (2) the parameters p, q and r of R distribution proved to be its scale, location and shape parameters, and have a deep relationship with stand characteristics, which means the parameters of R distribution have good theoretical interpretation; (3) the ordinate of inflection point of R distribution has significant relativity with its skewness and kurtosis, and the fitted main distribution range for the cumulative diameter distribution of Chinese fir plantations was 0.4∼0.6; (4) the goodness-of-fit test showed diameter distributions of unknown stands can be well estimated by applying R distribution based on PRM or the combination of PPM and PRM under the condition that only quadratic mean DBH or plus stand age are known, and the non-rejection rates were near 80%, which are higher than the 72.33% non-rejection rate of three-parametric Weibull function based on the combination of PPM and PRM.

  13. Phosphate-based glasses: Prediction of acoustical properties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El-Moneim, Amin Abd, E-mail: aminabdelmoneim@hotmail.com

    2016-04-15

    In this work, a comprehensive study has been carried out to predict the composition dependence of bulk modulus and ultrasonic attenuation coefficient in the phosphate-based glass systems PbO-P{sub 2}O{sub 5}, Li{sub 2}O-TeO{sub 2}-B{sub 2}O{sub 3}-P{sub 2}O{sub 5}, TiO{sub 2}-Na{sub 2}O-CaO-P{sub 2}O{sub 5} and Cr{sub 2}O{sub 3}-doped Na{sub 2}O-ZnO-P{sub 2}O{sub 5} at room temperature. The prediction is based on (i) Makishima-Mackenzie theory, which correlates the bulk modulus with packing density and dissociation energy per unit volume, and (ii) Our recently presented semi-empirical formulas, which correlate the ultrasonic attenuation coefficient with the oxygen density, mean atomic ring size, first-order stretching force constant and experimental bulk modulus. Results revealed that our recently presented semi-empirical formulas can be applied successfully to predict changes of ultrasonic attenuation coefficient in binary PbO-P{sub 2}O{sub 5} glasses at 10 MHz frequency and in quaternary Li{sub 2}O-TeO{sub 2}-B{sub 2}O{sub 3}-P{sub 2}O{sub 5}, TiO{sub 2}-Na{sub 2}O-CaO-P{sub 2}O{sub 5} and Cr{sub 2}O{sub 3}-Na{sub 2}O-ZnO-P{sub 2}O{sub 5} glasses at 5 MHz frequency. Also, Makishima-Mackenzie theory appears to be valid for the studied glasses if the effect of the basic structural units that present in the glass network is taken into account.

  14. Becoming popular: Interpersonal emotion regulation predicts relationship formation in real life social networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen eNiven

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Building relationships is crucial for satisfaction and success, especially when entering new social contexts. In the present paper, we investigate whether attempting to improve others’ feelings helps people to make connections in new networks. In Study 1, a social network study following new networks of people for a twelve-week period indicated that use of interpersonal emotion regulation (IER strategies predicted growth in popularity, as indicated by other network members’ reports of spending time with the person, in work and non-work interactions. In Study 2, linguistic analysis of the tweets from over 8000 Twitter users from formation of their accounts revealed that use of IER predicted greater popularity in terms of the number of followers gained. However, not all types of IER had positive effects. Behavioral IER strategies (which use behavior to reassure or comfort in order to regulate affect were associated with greater popularity, while cognitive strategies (which change a person’s thoughts about his or her situation or feelings in order to regulate affect were negatively associated with popularity. Our findings have implications for our understanding of how new relationships are formed, highlighting the important the role played by intentional emotion regulatory processes.

  15. Becoming popular: interpersonal emotion regulation predicts relationship formation in real life social networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niven, Karen; Garcia, David; van der Löwe, Ilmo; Holman, David; Mansell, Warren

    2015-01-01

    Building relationships is crucial for satisfaction and success, especially when entering new social contexts. In the present paper, we investigate whether attempting to improve others' feelings helps people to make connections in new networks. In Study 1, a social network study following new networks of people for a 12-week period indicated that use of interpersonal emotion regulation (IER) strategies predicted growth in popularity, as indicated by other network members' reports of spending time with the person, in work and non-work interactions. In Study 2, linguistic analysis of the tweets from over 8000 Twitter users from formation of their accounts revealed that use of IER predicted greater popularity in terms of the number of followers gained. However, not all types of IER had positive effects. Behavioral IER strategies (which use behavior to reassure or comfort in order to regulate affect) were associated with greater popularity, while cognitive strategies (which change a person's thoughts about his or her situation or feelings in order to regulate affect) were negatively associated with popularity. Our findings have implications for our understanding of how new relationships are formed, highlighting the important the role played by intentional emotion regulatory processes.

  16. BDNF Val66Met genotype and neuroticism predict life stress: A longitudinal study from childhood to adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehto, Kelli; Mäestu, Jarek; Kiive, Evelyn; Veidebaum, Toomas; Harro, Jaanus

    2016-03-01

    The brain-derived neurotrophic factor gene (BDNF) Val66Met polymorphism and life stress have been associated with negative emotionality (e.g., neuroticism), but relevant evidence is far from unequivocal. Possible confounding factors include the type and timing of stressful events measured, such as childhood adversity vs. recent stressful events, and variable gene × environment interactions. The aim of this study was to longitudinally assess the BDNF Val66Met polymorphism and environment interaction effect on neuroticism in a population representative sample, depending upon the type of stress, gender and family relations. In the original older cohort of the Estonian Children Personality Behavior and Health Study (ECPBHS, n=593), neuroticism was measured at age 15 (parental assessment), 18 and 25 (self-assessments). Childhood stress was reported at age 15, quality of family relations was measured at age 18, and recent stressful life events at age 25. The BDNF Val66Met polymorphism interacted with recent stressful life events, but not with childhood adversities, to impact neuroticism. Interestingly, in female participants, neuroticism at age 18 predicted future stressful life events dependent upon genotype: individuals with Val/Val genotype and high neuroticism experienced higher, but Met-allele carriers with high neuroticism lower stress exposure at age 25. Similar tendencies were observed using parental assessments at age 15. The protective effect of Met-allele in the high stress exposure group could result from better early family environment. In conclusion, we herewith provide further evidence for a role of BDNF gene variance contributing to plasticity in response to environmental demands.

  17. Predicting chick body mass by artificial intelligence-based models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia Ferreira Ponciano Ferraz

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to develop, validate, and compare 190 artificial intelligence-based models for predicting the body mass of chicks from 2 to 21 days of age subjected to different duration and intensities of thermal challenge. The experiment was conducted inside four climate-controlled wind tunnels using 210 chicks. A database containing 840 datasets (from 2 to 21-day-old chicks - with the variables dry-bulb air temperature, duration of thermal stress (days, chick age (days, and the daily body mass of chicks - was used for network training, validation, and tests of models based on artificial neural networks (ANNs and neuro-fuzzy networks (NFNs. The ANNs were most accurate in predicting the body mass of chicks from 2 to 21 days of age after they were subjected to the input variables, and they showed an R² of 0.9993 and a standard error of 4.62 g. The ANNs enable the simulation of different scenarios, which can assist in managerial decision-making, and they can be embedded in the heating control systems.

  18. Forbush Decrease Prediction Based on Remote Solar Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumbovic, Mateja; Vrsnak, Bojan; Calogovic, Jasa

    2016-04-01

    We study the relation between remote observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), their associated solar flares and short-term depressions in the galactic cosmic-ray flux (so called Forbush decreases). Statistical relations between Forbush decrease magnitude and several CME/flare parameters are examined. In general we find that Forbush decrease magnitude is larger for faster CMEs with larger apparent width, which is associated with stronger flares that originate close to the center of the solar disk and are (possibly) involved in a CME-CME interaction. The statistical relations are quantified and employed to forecast expected Forbush decrease magnitude range based on the selected remote solar observations of the CME and associated solar flare. Several verification measures are used to evaluate the forecast method. We find that the forecast is most reliable in predicting whether or not a CME will produce a Forbush decrease with a magnitude >3 %. The main advantage of the method is that it provides an early prediction, 1-4 days in advance. Based on the presented research, an online forecast tool was developed (Forbush Decrease Forecast Tool, FDFT) available at Hvar Observatory web page: http://oh.geof.unizg.hr/FDFT/fdft.php. We acknowledge the support of Croatian Science Foundation under the project 6212 „Solar and Stellar Variability" and of European social fond under the project "PoKRet".

  19. Protein Function Prediction Based on Sequence and Structure Information

    KAUST Repository

    Smaili, Fatima Z.

    2016-05-25

    The number of available protein sequences in public databases is increasing exponentially. However, a significant fraction of these sequences lack functional annotation which is essential to our understanding of how biological systems and processes operate. In this master thesis project, we worked on inferring protein functions based on the primary protein sequence. In the approach we follow, 3D models are first constructed using I-TASSER. Functions are then deduced by structurally matching these predicted models, using global and local similarities, through three independent enzyme commission (EC) and gene ontology (GO) function libraries. The method was tested on 250 “hard” proteins, which lack homologous templates in both structure and function libraries. The results show that this method outperforms the conventional prediction methods based on sequence similarity or threading. Additionally, our method could be improved even further by incorporating protein-protein interaction information. Overall, the method we use provides an efficient approach for automated functional annotation of non-homologous proteins, starting from their sequence.

  20. Analyst-to-Analyst Variability in Simulation-Based Prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glickman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Romero, Vicente J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-02-01

    This report describes findings from the culminating experiment of the LDRD project entitled, "Analyst-to-Analyst Variability in Simulation-Based Prediction". For this experiment, volunteer participants solving a given test problem in engineering and statistics were interviewed at different points in their solution process. These interviews are used to trace differing solutions to differing solution processes, and differing processes to differences in reasoning, assumptions, and judgments. The issue that the experiment was designed to illuminate -- our paucity of understanding of the ways in which humans themselves have an impact on predictions derived from complex computational simulations -- is a challenging and open one. Although solution of the test problem by analyst participants in this experiment has taken much more time than originally anticipated, and is continuing past the end of this LDRD, this project has provided a rare opportunity to explore analyst-to-analyst variability in significant depth, from which we derive evidence-based insights to guide further explorations in this important area.