WorldWideScience

Sample records for based life prediction

  1. Modeling of Complex Life Cycle Prediction Based on Cell Division

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fucheng Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Effective fault diagnosis and reasonable life expectancy are of great significance and practical engineering value for the safety, reliability, and maintenance cost of equipment and working environment. At present, the life prediction methods of the equipment are equipment life prediction based on condition monitoring, combined forecasting model, and driven data. Most of them need to be based on a large amount of data to achieve the problem. For this issue, we propose learning from the mechanism of cell division in the organism. We have established a moderate complexity of life prediction model across studying the complex multifactor correlation life model. In this paper, we model the life prediction of cell division. Experiments show that our model can effectively simulate the state of cell division. Through the model of reference, we will use it for the equipment of the complex life prediction.

  2. Life prediction of Ni-base superalloy

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    mean stress exponent, n, and the mean activation energy for creep were calculated from the experimental results. The accelerated creep life of the alloy was evaluated by using iso-stress parametric equations and Monkman–Grant method. Keywords. ... This alloy is age-hardenable by a fine dispersion of γ par- ticles, which ...

  3. A New Approach to Fatigue Life Prediction Based on Nucleation and Growth (Preprint)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    McClung, R. C; Francis, W. L; Hudak, S. J

    2006-01-01

    Prediction of total fatigue life in components is often performed by summing "initiation" and "propagation" life phases, where initiation life is based on stress-life or strain-life methods calibrated...

  4. Research on bearing life prediction based on support vector machine and its application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun Chuang; Zhang Zhousuo; He Zhengjia

    2011-01-01

    Life prediction of rolling element bearing is the urgent demand in engineering practice, and the effective life prediction technique is beneficial to predictive maintenance. Support vector machine (SVM) is a novel machine learning method based on statistical learning theory, and is of advantage in prediction. This paper develops SVM-based model for bearing life prediction. The inputs of the model are features of bearing vibration signal and the output is the bearing running time-bearing failure time ratio. The model is built base on a few failed bearing data, and it can fuse information of the predicted bearing. So it is of advantage to bearing life prediction in practice. The model is applied to life prediction of a bearing, and the result shows the proposed model is of high precision.

  5. Shelf Life Prediction for Canned Gudeg using Accelerated Shelf Life Testing (ASLT) Based on Arrhenius Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurhayati, R.; Rahayu NH, E.; Susanto, A.; Khasanah, Y.

    2017-04-01

    Gudeg is traditional food from Yogyakarta. It is consist of jackfruit, chicken, egg and coconut milk. Gudeg generally have a short shelf life. Canning or commercial sterilization is one way to extend the shelf life of gudeg. This aims of this research is to predict the shelf life of Andrawinaloka canned gudeg with Accelerated Shelf Life Test methods, Arrhenius model. Canned gudeg stored at three different temperature, there are 37, 50 and 60°C for two months. Measuring the number of Thio Barbituric Acid (TBA), as a critical aspect, were tested every 7 days. Arrhenius model approach is done with the equation order 0 and order 1. The analysis showed that the equation of order 0 can be used as an approach to estimating the shelf life of canned gudeg. The storage of Andrawinaloka canned gudeg at 30°C is predicted untill 21 months and 24 months for 25°C.

  6. The Prediction of Fatigue Life Based on Four Point Bending Test

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pramesti, F.P.; Molenaar, A.A.A.; Van de Ven, M.F.C.

    2013-01-01

    To be able to devise optimum strategies for maintenance and rehabilitation, it is essential to formulate an accurate prediction of pavement life and its maintenance needs. One of the pavement life prediction methods is based on the pavement's capability to sustain fatigue. If it were possible to

  7. Screw Remaining Life Prediction Based on Quantum Genetic Algorithm and Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaochen Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available To predict the remaining life of ball screw, a screw remaining life prediction method based on quantum genetic algorithm (QGA and support vector machine (SVM is proposed. A screw accelerated test bench is introduced. Accelerometers are installed to monitor the performance degradation of ball screw. Combined with wavelet packet decomposition and isometric mapping (Isomap, the sensitive feature vectors are obtained and stored in database. Meanwhile, the sensitive feature vectors are randomly chosen from the database and constitute training samples and testing samples. Then the optimal kernel function parameter and penalty factor of SVM are searched with the method of QGA. Finally, the training samples are used to train optimized SVM while testing samples are adopted to test the prediction accuracy of the trained SVM so the screw remaining life prediction model can be got. The experiment results show that the screw remaining life prediction model could effectively predict screw remaining life.

  8. Predicting nature-based tourist roles: a life span perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    James J. Murdy; Heather J. Gibson; Andrew Yiannakis

    2003-01-01

    The concept of stable, clearly identifiable patterns of tourist behavior, or roles, is a relatively recent development. Yiannakis and Gibson (1988, 1992) identified fifteen tourist roles based on leisure travelers' vacation behaviors. Building on this work, Gibson (1994) used discriminant analysis to determine the combination of needs and demographics are...

  9. The prediction of the residual life of electromechanical equipment based on the artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhukovskiy, Yu L.; Korolev, N. A.; Babanova, I. S.; Boikov, A. V.

    2017-10-01

    This article is devoted to the prediction of the residual life based on an estimate of the technical state of the induction motor. The proposed system allows to increase the accuracy and completeness of diagnostics by using an artificial neural network (ANN), and also identify and predict faulty states of an electrical equipment in dynamics. The results of the proposed system for estimation the technical condition are probability technical state diagrams and a quantitative evaluation of the residual life, taking into account electrical, vibrational, indirect parameters and detected defects. Based on the evaluation of the technical condition and the prediction of the residual life, a decision is made to change the control of the operating and maintenance modes of the electric motors.

  10. Fatigue Life Prediction of High Modulus Asphalt Concrete Based on the Local Stress-Strain Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mulian Zheng

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Previously published studies have proposed fatigue life prediction models for dense graded asphalt pavement based on flexural fatigue test. This study focused on the fatigue life prediction of High Modulus Asphalt Concrete (HMAC pavement using the local strain-stress method and direct tension fatigue test. First, the direct tension fatigue test at various strain levels was conducted on HMAC prism samples cut from plate specimens. Afterwards, their true stress-strain loop curves were obtained and modified to develop the strain-fatigue life equation. Then the nominal strain of HMAC course determined using finite element method was converted into local strain using the Neuber method. Finally, based on the established fatigue equation and converted local strain, a method to predict the pavement fatigue crack initiation life was proposed and the fatigue life of a typical HMAC overlay pavement which runs a risk of bottom-up cracking was predicted and validated. Results show that the proposed method was able to produce satisfactory crack initiation life.

  11. A residual life prediction model based on the generalized σ -N curved surface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zongwen AN

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In order to investigate change rule of the residual life of structure under random repeated load, firstly, starting from the statistic meaning of random repeated load, the joint probability density function of maximum stress and minimum stress is derived based on the characteristics of order statistic (maximum order statistic and minimum order statistic; then, based on the equation of generalized σ -N curved surface, considering the influence of load cycles number on fatigue life, a relationship among minimum stress, maximum stress and residual life, that is the σmin(n- σmax(n-Nr(n curved surface model, is established; finally, the validity of the proposed model is demonstrated by a practical case. The result shows that the proposed model can reflect the influence of maximum stress and minimum stress on residual life of structure under random repeated load, which can provide a theoretical basis for life prediction and reliability assessment of structure.

  12. Predictive modelling for shelf life determination of nutricereal based fermented baby food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasane, Prasad; Jha, Alok; Sharma, Nitya

    2015-08-01

    A shelf life model based on storage temperatures was developed for a nutricereal based fermented baby food formulation. The formulated baby food samples were packaged and stored at 10, 25, 37 and 45 °C for a test storage period of 180 days. A shelf life study was conducted using consumer and semi-trained panels, along with chemical analysis (moisture and acidity). The chemical parameters (moisture and titratable acidity) were found inadequate in determining the shelf life of the formulated product. Weibull hazard analysis was used to determine the shelf life of the product based on sensory evaluation. Considering 25 and 50 % rejection probability, the shelf life of the baby food formulation was predicted to be 98 and 322 days, 84 and 271 days, 71 and 221 days and 58 and 171 days for the samples stored at 10, 25, 37 and 45 °C, respectively. A shelf life equation was proposed using the rejection times obtained from the consumer study. Finally, the formulated baby food samples were subjected to microbial analysis for the predicted shelf life period and were found microbiologically safe for consumption during the storage period of 360 days.

  13. Creep Rupture Life Prediction Based on Analysis of Large Creep Deformation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YE Wenming

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available A creep rupture life prediction method for high temperature component was proposed. The method was based on a true stress-strain elastoplastic creep constitutive model and the large deformation finite element analysis method. This method firstly used the high-temperature tensile stress-strain curve expressed by true stress and strain and the creep curve to build materials' elastoplastic and creep constitutive model respectively, then used the large deformation finite element method to calculate the deformation response of high temperature component under a given load curve, finally the creep rupture life was determined according to the change trend of the responsive curve.The method was verified by durable test of TC11 titanium alloy notched specimens under 500 ℃, and was compared with the three creep rupture life prediction methods based on the small deformation analysis. Results show that the proposed method can accurately predict the high temperature creep response and long-term life of TC11 notched specimens, and the accuracy is better than that of the methods based on the average effective stress of notch ligament, the bone point stress and the fracture strain of the key point, which are all based on small deformation finite element analysis.

  14. Fatigue life prediction of Ni-base thermal solar receiver tubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartrott, Philipp von; Schlesinger, Michael [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Werkstoffmechanik (IWM), Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany); Uhlig, Ralf; Jedamski, Jens [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Stuttgart (Germany)

    2010-07-01

    Solar receivers for tower type Solar Thermal Power Plants are subjected to complex thermo-mechanical loads including fast and severe thermo-mechanical cycles. The material temperatures can reach more than 800 C and fall to room temperature very quickly. In order to predict the fatigue life of a receiver design, receiver tubes made of Alloy 625 with a wall thickness of 0.5 mm were tested in isothermal and thermo-cyclic experiments. The number of cycles to failure was in the range of 100 to 100,000. A thermo-mechanical fatigue life prediction model was set up. The model is based on the cyclic deformation of the material and the damage caused by the growth of fatigue micro cracks. The model reasonably predicts the experimental results. (orig.)

  15. Remaining useful life prediction based on noisy condition monitoring signals using constrained Kalman filter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Son, Junbo; Zhou, Shiyu; Sankavaram, Chaitanya; Du, Xinyu; Zhang, Yilu

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, a statistical prognostic method to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of individual units based on noisy condition monitoring signals is proposed. The prediction accuracy of existing data-driven prognostic methods depends on the capability of accurately modeling the evolution of condition monitoring (CM) signals. Therefore, it is inevitable that the RUL prediction accuracy depends on the amount of random noise in CM signals. When signals are contaminated by a large amount of random noise, RUL prediction even becomes infeasible in some cases. To mitigate this issue, a robust RUL prediction method based on constrained Kalman filter is proposed. The proposed method models the CM signals subject to a set of inequality constraints so that satisfactory prediction accuracy can be achieved regardless of the noise level of signal evolution. The advantageous features of the proposed RUL prediction method is demonstrated by both numerical study and case study with real world data from automotive lead-acid batteries. - Highlights: • A computationally efficient constrained Kalman filter is proposed. • Proposed filter is integrated into an online failure prognosis framework. • A set of proper constraints significantly improves the failure prediction accuracy. • Promising results are reported in the application of battery failure prognosis.

  16. Probabilistic fatigue life prediction methodology for notched components based on simple smooth fatigue tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Z. R.; Li, Z. X. [Dept.of Engineering Mechanics, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Engineering Mechanics, Southeast University, Nanjing (China); Hu, X. T.; Xin, P. P.; Song, Y. D. [State Key Laboratory of Mechanics and Control of Mechanical Structures, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing (China)

    2017-01-15

    The methodology of probabilistic fatigue life prediction for notched components based on smooth specimens is presented. Weakestlink theory incorporating Walker strain model has been utilized in this approach. The effects of stress ratio and stress gradient have been considered. Weibull distribution and median rank estimator are used to describe fatigue statistics. Fatigue tests under different stress ratios were conducted on smooth and notched specimens of titanium alloy TC-1-1. The proposed procedures were checked against the test data of TC-1-1 notched specimens. Prediction results of 50 % survival rate are all within a factor of two scatter band of the test results.

  17. Accurate bearing remaining useful life prediction based on Weibull distribution and artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Ali, Jaouher; Chebel-Morello, Brigitte; Saidi, Lotfi; Malinowski, Simon; Fnaiech, Farhat

    2015-05-01

    Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of critical assets is an important challenge in condition based maintenance to improve reliability and decrease machine's breakdown and maintenance's cost. Bearing is one of the most important components in industries which need to be monitored and the user should predict its RUL. The challenge of this study is to propose an original feature able to evaluate the health state of bearings and to estimate their RUL by Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) techniques. In this paper, the proposed method is based on the data-driven prognostic approach. The combination of Simplified Fuzzy Adaptive Resonance Theory Map (SFAM) neural network and Weibull distribution (WD) is explored. WD is used just in the training phase to fit measurement and to avoid areas of fluctuation in the time domain. SFAM training process is based on fitted measurements at present and previous inspection time points as input. However, the SFAM testing process is based on real measurements at present and previous inspections. Thanks to the fuzzy learning process, SFAM has an important ability and a good performance to learn nonlinear time series. As output, seven classes are defined; healthy bearing and six states for bearing degradation. In order to find the optimal RUL prediction, a smoothing phase is proposed in this paper. Experimental results show that the proposed method can reliably predict the RUL of rolling element bearings (REBs) based on vibration signals. The proposed prediction approach can be applied to prognostic other various mechanical assets.

  18. Probabilistic Fatigue Life Prediction of Bridge Cables Based on Multiscaling and Mesoscopic Fracture Mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongxiang Liu

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Fatigue fracture of bridge stay-cables is usually a multiscale process as the crack grows from micro-scale to macro-scale. Such a process, however, is highly uncertain. In order to make a rational prediction of the residual life of bridge cables, a probabilistic fatigue approach is proposed, based on a comprehensive vehicle load model, finite element analysis and multiscaling and mesoscopic fracture mechanics. Uncertainties in both material properties and external loads are considered. The proposed method is demonstrated through the fatigue life prediction of cables of the Runyang Cable-Stayed Bridge in China, and it is found that cables along the bridge spans may have significantly different fatigue lives, and due to the variability, some of them may have shorter lives than those as expected from the design.

  19. Reliability residual-life prediction method for thermal aging based on performance degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren Shuhong; Xue Fei; Yu Weiwei; Ti Wenxin; Liu Xiaotian

    2013-01-01

    The paper makes the study of the nuclear power plant main pipeline. The residual-life of the main pipeline that failed due to thermal aging has been studied by the use of performance degradation theory and Bayesian updating methods. Firstly, the thermal aging impact property degradation process of the main pipeline austenitic stainless steel has been analyzed by the accelerated thermal aging test data. Then, the thermal aging residual-life prediction model based on the impact property degradation data is built by Bayesian updating methods. Finally, these models are applied in practical situations. It is shown that the proposed methods are feasible and the prediction accuracy meets the needs of the project. Also, it provides a foundation for the scientific management of aging management of the main pipeline. (authors)

  20. Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on Gaussian Processes Mixture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lingling; Wang, Pengchong; Chao, Kuei-Hsiang; Zhou, Yatong; Xie, Yang

    2016-01-01

    The remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of Lithium-ion batteries is closely related to the capacity degeneration trajectories. Due to the self-charging and the capacity regeneration, the trajectories have the property of multimodality. Traditional prediction models such as the support vector machines (SVM) or the Gaussian Process regression (GPR) cannot accurately characterize this multimodality. This paper proposes a novel RUL prediction method based on the Gaussian Process Mixture (GPM). It can process multimodality by fitting different segments of trajectories with different GPR models separately, such that the tiny differences among these segments can be revealed. The method is demonstrated to be effective for prediction by the excellent predictive result of the experiments on the two commercial and chargeable Type 1850 Lithium-ion batteries, provided by NASA. The performance comparison among the models illustrates that the GPM is more accurate than the SVM and the GPR. In addition, GPM can yield the predictive confidence interval, which makes the prediction more reliable than that of traditional models. PMID:27632176

  1. Predicting the life-time benefit of school-based smoking prevention programmes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jit, Mark; Aveyard, Paul; Barton, Pelham; Meads, Catherine A

    2010-06-01

    School-based smoking prevention programmes may delay the age of smoking initiation, but do not appear to achieve lasting reductions in smoking prevalence beyond school-leaving age. We explored whether delaying the age at which someone initiates smoking may have life-time benefits by increasing the likelihood of quitting in later life. Data from the General Household Survey of Great Britain were used in a logistic regression model to examine the association between age at which someone initiates regular smoking and the probability that the person will quit smoking later in life. The effect of confounding variables (sex, ethnicity, socio-economic class, education and geographical location) was taken into account. The predicted relationship was used in a cohort model to estimate the life-time reduction in smoking prevalence and all-cause mortality of a school-based smoking prevention programme. Age of regular smoking initiation was associated strongly with the probability of quitting later in life (coefficient -0.103, P < 0.001). The strength of the association was slightly reduced but still significant when confounding variables were included (coefficient -0.075, P < 0.001). An intervention that delays smoking initiation without decreasing smoking prevalence at age 18 may reduce adult smoking prevalence by 0.13-0.32% (depending on age) and all-cause mortality by 0.09% over the life-time of the sample. School-based smoking prevention programmes have potential for a beneficial effect over the life-time of the participants even if they have no apparent effect at school-leaving age.

  2. Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm-Based Particle Filter for Li-Ion Battery Life Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye Tian

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An intelligent online prognostic approach is proposed for predicting the remaining useful life (RUL of lithium-ion (Li-ion batteries based on artificial fish swarm algorithm (AFSA and particle filter (PF, which is an integrated approach combining model-based method with data-driven method. The parameters, used in the empirical model which is based on the capacity fade trends of Li-ion batteries, are identified dependent on the tracking ability of PF. AFSA-PF aims to improve the performance of the basic PF. By driving the prior particles to the domain with high likelihood, AFSA-PF allows global optimization, prevents particle degeneracy, thereby improving particle distribution and increasing prediction accuracy and algorithm convergence. Data provided by NASA are used to verify this approach and compare it with basic PF and regularized PF. AFSA-PF is shown to be more accurate and precise.

  3. Risk based service life prediction of underground cast iron pipes subjected to corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, C.Q.; Mahmoodian, M.

    2013-01-01

    Aging and deterioration of underground cast iron pipes is inevitable after their long time in service, with corrosion being the most predominant mechanism for pipe failures. Although considerable research has been undertaken in the past few decades, more is on the effects of corrosion on structural capacity of pipes than that on the prediction of their service life. This paper presents a methodology to quantitatively assess the risk of pipe collapse and predict its remaining service life using a time-dependent reliability theory. The concept of stress intensity in fracture mechanics is employed to establish the failure criterion of pipe collapse. An empirical model is derived for maximum pit growth of corrosion from the available data based on mathematical regressions. An example is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed method. It is found in the paper that the risk of pipe collapse increases with an increase in the diameter of the pipe for both external and internal corrosion. It is also found that the tougher the pipe is, the smaller the risk of its collapse. The paper concludes that a time-dependent reliability method is a very useful tool to predict the risk of pipe collapse and its remaining service life. The proposed method can help the water industry develop rehabilitation or replacement strategy for existing pipe networks with a view for better management of the pipe asset

  4. [Research on engine remaining useful life prediction based on oil spectrum analysis and particle filtering].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Lei; Jia, Yun-xian; Cai, Li-ying; Lin, Guo-yu; Zhao, Jin-song

    2013-09-01

    The spectrometric oil analysis(SOA) is an important technique for machine state monitoring, fault diagnosis and prognosis, and SOA based remaining useful life(RUL) prediction has an advantage of finding out the optimal maintenance strategy for machine system. Because the complexity of machine system, its health state degradation process can't be simply characterized by linear model, while particle filtering(PF) possesses obvious advantages over traditional Kalman filtering for dealing nonlinear and non-Gaussian system, the PF approach was applied to state forecasting by SOA, and the RUL prediction technique based on SOA and PF algorithm is proposed. In the prediction model, according to the estimating result of system's posterior probability, its prior probability distribution is realized, and the multi-step ahead prediction model based on PF algorithm is established. Finally, the practical SOA data of some engine was analyzed and forecasted by the above method, and the forecasting result was compared with that of traditional Kalman filtering method. The result fully shows the superiority and effectivity of the

  5. Remaining useful life prediction based on variation coefficient consistency test of a Wiener process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan LI

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available High-cost equipment is often reused after maintenance, and whether the information before the maintenance can be used for the Remaining Useful Life (RUL prediction after the maintenance is directly determined by the consistency of the degradation pattern before and after the maintenance. Aiming at this problem, an RUL prediction method based on the consistency test of a Wiener process is proposed. Firstly, the parameters of the Wiener process estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE are proved to be biased, and a modified unbiased estimation method is proposed and verified by derivation and simulations. Then, the h statistic is constructed according to the reciprocal of the variation coefficient of the Wiener process, and the sampling distribution is derived. Meanwhile, a universal method for the consistency test is proposed based on the sampling distribution theorem, which is verified by simulation data and classical crack degradation data. Finally, based on the consistency test of the degradation model, a weighted fusion RUL prediction method is presented for the fuel pump of an airplane, and the validity of the presented method is verified by accurate computation results of real data, which provides a theoretical and practical guidance for engineers to predict the RUL of equipment after maintenance.

  6. Life prediction for white OLED based on LSM under lognormal distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jianping; Liu, Fang; Liu, Yu; Wu, Helen; Zhu, Wenqing; Wu, Wenli; Wu, Liang

    2012-09-01

    In order to acquire the reliability information of White Organic Light Emitting Display (OLED), three groups of OLED constant stress accelerated life tests (CSALTs) were carried out to obtain failure data of samples. Lognormal distribution function was applied to describe OLED life distribution, and the accelerated life equation was determined by Least square method (LSM). The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was performed to verify whether the white OLED life meets lognormal distribution or not. Author-developed software was employed to predict the average life and the median life. The numerical results indicate that the white OLED life submits to lognormal distribution, and that the accelerated life equation meets inverse power law completely. The estimated life information of the white OLED provides manufacturers and customers with important guidelines.

  7. Life prediction for high temperature low cycle fatigue of two kinds of titanium alloys based on exponential function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, G. Y.; Mi, X. Z.; Wang, F.

    2018-01-01

    The high temperature low cycle fatigue tests of TC4 titanium alloy and TC11 titanium alloy are carried out under strain controlled. The relationships between cyclic stress-life and strain-life are analyzed. The high temperature low cycle fatigue life prediction model of two kinds of titanium alloys is established by using Manson-Coffin method. The relationship between failure inverse number and plastic strain range presents nonlinear in the double logarithmic coordinates. Manson-Coffin method assumes that they have linear relation. Therefore, there is bound to be a certain prediction error by using the Manson-Coffin method. In order to solve this problem, a new method based on exponential function is proposed. The results show that the fatigue life of the two kinds of titanium alloys can be predicted accurately and effectively by using these two methods. Prediction accuracy is within ±1.83 times scatter zone. The life prediction capability of new methods based on exponential function proves more effective and accurate than Manson-Coffin method for two kinds of titanium alloys. The new method based on exponential function can give better fatigue life prediction results with the smaller standard deviation and scatter zone than Manson-Coffin method. The life prediction results of two methods for TC4 titanium alloy prove better than TC11 titanium alloy.

  8. MEMS based shock pulse detection sensor for improved rotary Stirling cooler end of life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hübner, M.; Münzberg, M.

    2018-05-01

    The widespread use of rotary Stirling coolers in high performance thermal imagers used for critical 24/7 surveillance tasks justifies any effort to significantly enhance the reliability and predictable uptime of those coolers. Typically the lifetime of the whole imaging device is limited due to continuous wear and finally failure of the rotary compressor of the Stirling cooler, especially due to failure of the comprised bearings. MTTF based lifetime predictions, even based on refined MTTF models taking operational scenario dependent scaling factors into account, still lack in precision to forecast accurately the end of life (EOL) of individual coolers. Consequently preventive maintenance of individual coolers to avoid failures of the main sensor in critical operational scenarios are very costly or even useless. We have developed an integrated test method based on `Micro Electromechanical Systems', so called MEMS sensors, which significantly improves the cooler EOL prediction. The recently commercially available MEMS acceleration sensors have mechanical resonance frequencies up to 50 kHz. They are able to detect solid borne shock pulses in the cooler structure, originating from e.g. metal on metal impacts driven by periodical forces acting on moving inner parts of the rotary compressor within wear dependent slack and play. The impact driven transient shock pulse analyses uses only the high frequency signal <10kHz and differs therefore from the commonly used broadband low frequencies vibrational analysis of reciprocating machines. It offers a direct indicator of the individual state of wear. The predictive cooler lifetime model based on the shock pulse analysis is presented and results are discussed.

  9. Fatigue Life Prediction of Package of Suspension Automotive Under Random Vibration Based on Road Roughness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazem Reza Kashyzadeh

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The impact of a suitable suspension system for passenger comfort and vehicle steering is an obvious order and direct impact on the safety of passengers must be considered, to do so different kinds of tests must be exerted, one of these is fatigue testing which is one of the most significant ones. Another issue is the high cost in practical ways, and to cope with this issue various ways must be assessed and analyzed, one of the best and the most efficient ways is modelling and testing in virtual software environments. In the present paper, predict fatigue life of suspension component and package of automotive suspension are the main purposes. First, using MATLAB software, road roughness according to the intercity roads for constant vehicle velocity (100 Km/h has been studied. After that frequency response of components has been analysed, its critical points determined to calculate the fatigue life of the part, and the amount of critical stress obtained based on Von Misses, Tresca and Max Principle criterion for a quarter car model (passive suspension System in 206 Peugeot. Fatigue life of the vehicle components are calculated in terms of kilo-Meters in specialized fatigue software such as 116944, 92638.9, 46388.9 and 191388.9 Km respectively wheel hub, pitman arm, suspension arm and package of suspension. Finally, to prove the given results of the finite element method compared with reported results by other researchers and the results match very well with those.

  10. Remaining useful life prediction based on the Wiener process for an aviation axial piston pump

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xingjian Wang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available An aviation hydraulic axial piston pump’s degradation from comprehensive wear is a typical gradual failure model. Accurate wear prediction is difficult as random and uncertain characteristics must be factored into the estimation. The internal wear status of the axial piston pump is characterized by the return oil flow based on fault mechanism analysis of the main frictional pairs in the pump. The performance degradation model is described by the Wiener process to predict the remaining useful life (RUL of the pump. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE is performed by utilizing the expectation maximization (EM algorithm to estimate the initial parameters of the Wiener process while recursive estimation is conducted utilizing the Kalman filter method to estimate the drift coefficient of the Wiener process. The RUL of the pump is then calculated according to the performance degradation model based on the Wiener process. Experimental results indicate that the return oil flow is a suitable characteristic for reflecting the internal wear status of the axial piston pump, and thus the Wiener process-based method may effectively predicate the RUL of the pump.

  11. An Analytical Model for Fatigue Life Prediction Based on Fracture Mechanics and Crack Closure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsø, Jan Behrend; Agerskov, Henning

    1996-01-01

    test specimens are compared with fatigue life predictions using a fracture mechanics approach. In the calculation of the fatigue life, the influence of the welding residual stresses and crack closure on the fatigue crack growth is considered. A description of the crack closure model for analytical...... determination of the fatigue life is included. Furthermore, the results obtained in studies of the various parameters that have an influence on the fatigue life, are given. A very good agreement between experimental and analytical results is obtained, when the crack closure model is used in determination...... of the analytical fatigue lives. Both the analytical and experimental results obtained show that the Miner rule may give quite unconservative predictions of the fatigue life for the types of stochastic loading studied....

  12. An Analytical Model for Fatigue Life Prediction Based on Fracture Mechanics and Crack Closure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsø, Jan Behrend; Agerskov, Henning

    1996-01-01

    test specimens are compared with fatigue life predictions using a fracture mechanics approach. In the calculation of the fatigue life, the influence of the welding residual stresses and crack closure on the fatigue crack growth is considered. A description of the crack closure model for analytical...... of the analytical fatigue lives. Both the analytical and experimental results obtained show that the Miner rule may give quite unconservative predictions of the fatigue life for the types of stochastic loading studied....... determination of the fatigue life is included. Furthermore, the results obtained in studies of the various parameters that have an influence on the fatigue life, are given. A very good agreement between experimental and analytical results is obtained, when the crack closure model is used in determination...

  13. Shelf-Life Prediction of Extra Virgin Olive Oils Using an Empirical Model Based on Standard Quality Tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Guillaume

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Extra virgin olive oil shelf-life could be defined as the length of time under normal storage conditions within which no off-flavours or defects are developed and quality parameters such as peroxide value and specific absorbance are retained within accepted limits for this commercial category. Prediction of shelf-life is a desirable goal in the food industry. Even when extra virgin olive oil shelf-life should be one of the most important quality markers for extra virgin olive oil, it is not recognised as a legal parameter in most regulations and standards around the world. The proposed empirical formula to be evaluated in the present study is based on common quality tests with known and predictable result changes over time and influenced by different aspects of extra virgin olive oil with a meaningful influence over its shelf-life. The basic quality tests considered in the formula are Rancimat® or induction time (IND; 1,2-diacylglycerols (DAGs; pyropheophytin a (PPP; and free fatty acids (FFA. This paper reports research into the actual shelf-life of commercially packaged extra virgin olive oils versus the predicted shelf-life of those oils determined by analysing the expected deterioration curves for the three basic quality tests detailed above. Based on the proposed model, shelf-life is predicted by choosing the lowest predicted shelf-life of any of those three tests.

  14. Taylor Series-Based Long-Term Creep-Life Prediction of Alloy 617

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yin, Song Nan; Kim, Woo Gon; Kim, Yong Wan; Park, Jae Young; Kim, Soen Jin

    2010-01-01

    In this study, a Taylor series (T-S) model based on the Arrhenius, McVetty, and Monkman-Grant equations was developed using a mathematical analysis. In order to reduce fitting errors, the McVetty equation was transformed by considering the first three terms of the Taylor series equation. The model parameters were accurately determined by a statistical technique of maximum likelihood estimation, and this model was applied to the creep data of alloy 617. The T-S model results showed better agreement with the experimental data than other models such as the Eno, exponential, and L-M models. In particular, the T-S model was converted into an isothermal Taylor series (IT-S) model that can predict the creep strength at a given temperature. It was identified that the estimations obtained using the converted ITS model was better than that obtained using the T-S model for predicting the long-term creep life of alloy 617

  15. [Prediction of life expectancy for prostate cancer patients based on the kinetic theory of aging of living systems].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viktorov, A A; Zharinov, G M; Neklasova, N Ju; Morozova, E E

    2017-01-01

    The article presents a methodical approach for prediction of life expectancy for people diagnosed with prostate cancer based on the kinetic theory of aging of living systems. The life expectancy is calculated by solving the differential equation for the rate of aging for three different stage of life - «normal» life, life with prostate cancer and life after combination therapy for prostate cancer. The mathematical model of aging for each stage of life has its own parameters identified by the statistical analysis of healthcare data from the Zharinov's databank and Rosstat CDR NES databank. The core of the methodical approach is the statistical correlation between growth rate of the prostate specific antigen level (PSA-level) or the PSA doubling time (PSA DT) before therapy, and lifespan: the higher the PSA DT is, the greater lifespan. The patients were grouped under the «fast PSA DT» and «slow PSA DT» categories. The satisfactory matching between calculations and experiment is shown. The prediction error of group life expectancy is due to the completeness and reliability of the main data source. A detailed monitoring of the basic health indicators throughout the each person life in each analyzed group is required. The absence of this particular information makes it impossible to predict the individual life expectancy.

  16. Probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Shun-Peng; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Peng, Weiwen; Wang, Hai-Kun; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2016-01-01

    A probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs operating under uncertainty is developed. The framework incorporates the overall uncertainties appearing in a structural integrity assessment. A comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) procedure is presented to quantify multiple types of uncertainty using multiplicative and additive UQ methods. In addition, the factors that contribute the most to the resulting output uncertainty are investigated and identified for uncertainty reduction in decision-making. A high prediction accuracy of the proposed framework is validated through a comparison of model predictions to the experimental results of GH4133 superalloy and full-scale tests of aero engine high-pressure turbine discs. - Highlights: • A probabilistic PoF-based framework for fatigue life prediction is proposed. • A comprehensive procedure forquantifyingmultiple types of uncertaintyis presented. • The factors that contribute most to the resulting output uncertainty are identified. • The proposed frameworkdemonstrates high prediction accuracybyfull-scale tests.

  17. Lithium-ion battery remaining useful life prediction based on grey support vector machines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaogang Li

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this article, an improved grey prediction model is proposed to address low-accuracy prediction issue of grey forecasting model. The first step is using a trigonometric function to transform the original data sequence to smooth the data, which is called smoothness of grey prediction model, and then a grey support vector machine model by integrating the improved grey model with support vector machine is introduced. At the initial stage of the model, trigonometric functions and accumulation generation operation can be used to preprocess the data, which enhances the smoothness of the data and reduces the associated randomness. In addition, support vector machine is implemented to establish a prediction model for the pre-processed data and select the optimal model parameters via genetic algorithms. Finally, the data are restored through the ‘regressive generate’ operation to obtain the forecasting data. To prove that the grey support vector machine model is superior to the other models, the battery life data from the Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering are selected, and the presented model is used to predict the remaining useful life of the battery. The predicted result is compared to that of grey model and support vector machines. For a more intuitive comparison of the three models, this article quantifies the root mean square errors for these three different models in the case of different ratio of training samples and prediction samples. The results show that the effect of grey support vector machine model is optimal, and the corresponding root mean square error is only 3.18%.

  18. A residual life prediction model based on the generalized σ -N curved surface

    OpenAIRE

    Zongwen AN; Xuezong BAI; Jianxiong GAO

    2016-01-01

    In order to investigate change rule of the residual life of structure under random repeated load, firstly, starting from the statistic meaning of random repeated load, the joint probability density function of maximum stress and minimum stress is derived based on the characteristics of order statistic (maximum order statistic and minimum order statistic); then, based on the equation of generalized σ -N curved surface, considering the influence of load cycles number on fatigue life, a relation...

  19. Physics-based Modeling Tools for Life Prediction and Durability Assessment of Advanced Materials, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The technical objectives of this program are: (1) to develop a set of physics-based modeling tools to predict the initiation of hot corrosion and to address pit and...

  20. Prediction of Combine Economic Life Based on Repair and Maintenance Costs Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Rohani

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Farm machinery managers often need to make complex economic decisions on machinery replacement. Repair and maintenance costs can have significant impacts on this economic decision. The farm manager must be able to predict farm machinery repair and maintenance costs. This study aimed to identify a regression model that can adequately represent the repair and maintenance costs in terms of machine age in cumulative hours of use. The regression model has the ability to predict the repair and maintenance costs for longer time periods. Therefore, it can be used for the estimation of the economic life. The study was conducted using field data collected from 11 John-Deer 955 combine harvesters used in several western provinces of Iran. It was found that power model has a better performance for the prediction of combine repair and maintenance costs. The results showed that the optimum replacement age of John-Deer 955 combine was 54300 cumulative hours.

  1. Energy Dissipation-Based Method for Fatigue Life Prediction of Rock Salt

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Mingming; Huang, Bingqian; Zhu, Caihui; Chen, Yunsheng; Li, Ning

    2018-05-01

    The fatigue test for rock salt is conducted under different stress amplitudes, loading frequencies, confining pressures and loading rates, from which the evaluation rule of the dissipated energy is revealed and analysed. The evolution of energy dissipation under fatigue loading is divided into three stages: the initial stage, the second stage and the acceleration stage. In the second stage, the energy dissipation per cycle remains stable and shows an exponential relation with the stress amplitude; the failure dissipated energy only depends on the mechanical behaviour of the rock salt and confining pressure, but it is immune to the loading conditions. The energy dissipation of fatigued rock salt is discussed, and a novel model for fatigue life prediction is proposed on the basis of energy dissipation. A simple model for evolution of the accumulative dissipated energy is established. Its prediction results are compared with the test results, and the proposed model is validated.

  2. Prediction of Quality of Life of Non–Insulin-Dependent Diabetic Patients Based on Perceived Social Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Shareh

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: The objective of this study was to predic quality of life based on perceived social support components in non–insulin-dependent diabetic patients.Materials and Method: Fifty patients with non–insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus from Al-Zahra diabetic center in Shiraz participated in a cross-sectional study via survey instrument. All subjects completed multidimensional scale of perceived social support (MSPSS and world health organization quality of life- brief (WHOQOL-BREF questionnaires. Results: On the basis of stepwise multiple regression analysis friends and family dimensions of perceived social support were the best predictors of the quality of life and its dimensions (p<0.01.Conclusion: Friends and family dimensions of perceived social support have significant contributions in predicting quality of life of patients with non–insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus.

  3. Prediction of pavement remaining service life based on repetition of load and permanent deformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usman, R. S.; Setyawan, A.; Suprapto, M.

    2018-03-01

    One of the methods which was applied in the assessment of flexible pavement performance was mechanistic method assuming structures of road pavement to become multi-layer structure for flexible pavement, that the vehicle load working on the pavement layer under repetition with power failure worth 1 (one) unit which was assumed as evenly distributed static load, and therefore the pavement material would provide response in the form of stress, strain, and deflection. This is closely related in order to assess the structure of flexible pavement and to predict the remaining service life on the roads of Pulau Indah sta 0 + 000 to sta. 0 + 845 in Kota Kupang, Nusa Tenggara Timur. The performance appraisal indicator which was used was fatigue cracking happening bottom of the asphalt layer and permanent deformation (rutting) on the surface of subgrade. The strain estimate on the flexible pavement layer structure needs carefulness and high accuracy and therefore a software like KENPAVE which produces horizontal tensile strain of 8,802E-05 and vertical compressive strain of 2,642E-04 was used. By applying equation of The Asphalt Instituteit was obtained repetition of permit load when reaching fatigue cracking (Nf) was 16.071.516 ESAL and permanent deformation (rutting) was 14.703.867 ESAL and also it was predicted the remaining service life of pavement applied the equation of AASTHO 1993 by considering Traffic Multiplier factor (TM 1.8, TM 1.9 and TM 2.0) obtained the remaining life service due to fatigue of 5.51% in the year of 13th (TM 1.8), 7.95% in the year of12th (TM 1.9) and 3.11% (TM 2.0) in the year of 12th, also the remaining service life due to rutting of 4.69% in the year of 12th(TM 1.8), 7.79% in the year of 11th (TM 1.9), and 2.94 in the year of 11th (TM 2.0).

  4. Development of a Late-Life Dementia Prediction Index with Supervised Machine Learning in the Population-Based CAIDE Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pekkala, Timo; Hall, Anette; Lötjönen, Jyrki; Mattila, Jussi; Soininen, Hilkka; Ngandu, Tiia; Laatikainen, Tiina; Kivipelto, Miia; Solomon, Alina

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed to develop a late-life dementia prediction model using a novel validated supervised machine learning method, the Disease State Index (DSI), in the Finnish population-based CAIDE study. The CAIDE study was based on previous population-based midlife surveys. CAIDE participants were re-examined twice in late-life, and the first late-life re-examination was used as baseline for the present study. The main study population included 709 cognitively normal subjects at first re-examination who returned to the second re-examination up to 10 years later (incident dementia n = 39). An extended population (n = 1009, incident dementia 151) included non-participants/non-survivors (national registers data). DSI was used to develop a dementia index based on first re-examination assessments. Performance in predicting dementia was assessed as area under the ROC curve (AUC). AUCs for DSI were 0.79 and 0.75 for main and extended populations. Included predictors were cognition, vascular factors, age, subjective memory complaints, and APOE genotype. The supervised machine learning method performed well in identifying comprehensive profiles for predicting dementia development up to 10 years later. DSI could thus be useful for identifying individuals who are most at risk and may benefit from dementia prevention interventions.

  5. Application of the strain energy for fatigue life prediction (LCF) of metals by the energy-based criterion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shahram Shahrooi; Ibrahim Henk Metselaar; Zainul Huda; Ghezavati, H.R.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: In this study, the plastic strain energy under multiaxial fatigue condition has been calculated in the cyclic plasticity models by the stress-strain hysteresis loops. Then, using the results of these models, the fatigue lives in energy-based fatigue model is predicted and compared to experimental data. Moreover, a weighting factor on shear plastic work is presented to decrease the life factors in the model fatigue. (author)

  6. Prediction Model and Principle of End-of-Life Threshold for Lithium Ion Batteries Based on Open Circuit Voltage Drifts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cui, Yingzhi; Yang, Jie; Du, Chunyu; Zuo, Pengjian; Gao, Yunzhi; Cheng, Xinqun; Ma, Yulin; Yin, Geping

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Open circuit voltage evolution over ageing of lithium ion batteries is deciphered. •The mechanism responsible for the end-of-life (EOL) threshold is elaborated. •A new prediction model of EOL threshold with improved accuracy is developed. •This EOL prediction model is promising for the applications in electric vehicles. -- Abstract: The end-of-life (EOL) of a lithium ion battery (LIB) is defined as the time point when the LIB can no longer provide sufficient power or energy to accomplish its intended function. Generally, the EOL occurs abruptly when the degradation of a LIB reaches the threshold. Therefore, current prediction methods of EOL by extrapolating the early degradation behavior often result in significant errors. To address this problem, this paper analyzes the reason for the EOL threshold of a LIB with shallow depth of discharge. It is found that the sudden appearance of EOL threshold results from the drift of open circuit voltage (OCV) at the end of both shallow depth and full discharges. Further, a new EOL threshold prediction model with highly improved accuracy is developed based on the OCV drifts and their evolution mechanism, which can effectively avoid the misjudgment of EOL threshold. The accuracy of this EOL threshold prediction model is verified by comparing with experimental results. The EOL threshold prediction model can be applied to other battery chemistry systems and its possible application in electric vehicles is finally discussed.

  7. L70 life prediction for solid state lighting using Kalman Filter and Extended Kalman Filter based models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lall, Pradeep; Wei, Junchao; Davis, Lynn

    2013-08-08

    Solid-state lighting (SSL) luminaires containing light emitting diodes (LEDs) have the potential of seeing excessive temperatures when being transported across country or being stored in non-climate controlled warehouses. They are also being used in outdoor applications in desert environments that see little or no humidity but will experience extremely high temperatures during the day. This makes it important to increase our understanding of what effects high temperature exposure for a prolonged period of time will have on the usability and survivability of these devices. Traditional light sources “burn out” at end-of-life. For an incandescent bulb, the lamp life is defined by B50 life. However, the LEDs have no filament to “burn”. The LEDs continually degrade and the light output decreases eventually below useful levels causing failure. Presently, the TM-21 test standard is used to predict the L70 life of LEDs from LM-80 test data. Several failure mechanisms may be active in a LED at a single time causing lumen depreciation. The underlying TM-21 Model may not capture the failure physics in presence of multiple failure mechanisms. Correlation of lumen maintenance with underlying physics of degradation at system-level is needed. In this paper, Kalman Filter (KF) and Extended Kalman Filters (EKF) have been used to develop a 70-percent Lumen Maintenance Life Prediction Model for LEDs used in SSL luminaires. Ten-thousand hour LM-80 test data for various LEDs have been used for model development. System state at each future time has been computed based on the state space at preceding time step, system dynamics matrix, control vector, control matrix, measurement matrix, measured vector, process noise and measurement noise. The future state of the lumen depreciation has been estimated based on a second order Kalman Filter model and a Bayesian Framework. The measured state variable has been related to the underlying damage using physics-based models. Life

  8. A New Predictive Model Based on the ABC Optimized Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines Approach for Predicting the Remaining Useful Life in Aircraft Engines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulino José García Nieto

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Remaining useful life (RUL estimation is considered as one of the most central points in the prognostics and health management (PHM. The present paper describes a nonlinear hybrid ABC–MARS-based model for the prediction of the remaining useful life of aircraft engines. Indeed, it is well-known that an accurate RUL estimation allows failure prevention in a more controllable way so that the effective maintenance can be carried out in appropriate time to correct impending faults. The proposed hybrid model combines multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS, which have been successfully adopted for regression problems, with the artificial bee colony (ABC technique. This optimization technique involves parameter setting in the MARS training procedure, which significantly influences the regression accuracy. However, its use in reliability applications has not yet been widely explored. Bearing this in mind, remaining useful life values have been predicted here by using the hybrid ABC–MARS-based model from the remaining measured parameters (input variables for aircraft engines with success. A correlation coefficient equal to 0.92 was obtained when this hybrid ABC–MARS-based model was applied to experimental data. The agreement of this model with experimental data confirmed its good performance. The main advantage of this predictive model is that it does not require information about the previous operation states of the aircraft engine.

  9. Fatigue life prediction in composites

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Huston, RJ

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available Because of the relatively large number of possible failure mechanisms in fibre reinforced composite materials, the prediction of fatigue life in a component is not a simple process. Several mathematical and statistical models have been proposed...

  10. Prediction of material creep behaviour for strain based life assessment applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rantala, J.H.; Hurst, R.C. [EC JRC IAM, Petten (Netherlands); Bregani, F. [ENEL, Milan (Italy)

    1998-12-31

    In this work the idea of using constant load uniaxial creep test results instead of constant stress results for developing a CDM creep model for the P92 material is demonstrated. Due to limited availability of creep test results this work is based on incomplete test data and a general stress rupture line. In spite of these limitations a material creep model was developed for use in a FE analysis. Using P91 material as an example, a method is proposed to account for differences in strain evolution as a function of stress which normally manifests itself as lower strain values at low stresses in a normalised time-strain plot. This allows the CDM model to be used both in FE analysis and in strain-based life assessment engineering calculations. (orig.) 3 refs.

  11. Prediction of material creep behaviour for strain based life assessment applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rantala, J H; Hurst, R C [EC JRC IAM, Petten (Netherlands); Bregani, F [ENEL, Milan (Italy)

    1999-12-31

    In this work the idea of using constant load uniaxial creep test results instead of constant stress results for developing a CDM creep model for the P92 material is demonstrated. Due to limited availability of creep test results this work is based on incomplete test data and a general stress rupture line. In spite of these limitations a material creep model was developed for use in a FE analysis. Using P91 material as an example, a method is proposed to account for differences in strain evolution as a function of stress which normally manifests itself as lower strain values at low stresses in a normalised time-strain plot. This allows the CDM model to be used both in FE analysis and in strain-based life assessment engineering calculations. (orig.) 3 refs.

  12. Rolling Bearing Life Prediction, Theory, and Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaretsky, Erwin V.

    2016-01-01

    A tutorial is presented outlining the evolution, theory, and application of rolling-element bearing life prediction from that of A. Palmgren, 1924; W. Weibull, 1939; G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren, 1947 and 1952; E. Ioannides and T. Harris, 1985; and E. Zaretsky, 1987. Comparisons are made between these life models. The Ioannides-Harris model without a fatigue limit is identical to the Lundberg-Palmgren model. The Weibull model is similar to that of Zaretsky if the exponents are chosen to be identical. Both the load-life and Hertz stress-life relations of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, and Ioannides and Harris reflect a strong dependence on the Weibull slope. The Zaretsky model decouples the dependence of the critical shear stress-life relation from the Weibull slope. This results in a nominal variation of the Hertz stress-life exponent. For 9th- and 8th-power Hertz stress-life exponents for ball and roller bearings, respectively, the Lundberg-Palmgren model best predicts life. However, for 12th- and 10th-power relations reflected by modern bearing steels, the Zaretsky model based on the Weibull equation is superior. Under the range of stresses examined, the use of a fatigue limit would suggest that (for most operating conditions under which a rolling-element bearing will operate) the bearing will not fail from classical rolling-element fatigue. Realistically, this is not the case. The use of a fatigue limit will significantly overpredict life over a range of normal operating Hertz stresses. (The use of ISO 281:2007 with a fatigue limit in these calculations would result in a bearing life approaching infinity.) Since the predicted lives of rolling-element bearings are high, the problem can become one of undersizing a bearing for a particular application. Rules had been developed to distinguish and compare predicted lives with those actually obtained. Based upon field and test results of 51 ball and roller bearing sets, 98 percent of these bearing sets had acceptable

  13. [Prediction method of rural landscape pattern evolution based on life cycle: a case study of Jinjing Town, Hunan Province, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Xiang; Liu, Li-Ming; Li, Hong-Qing

    2014-11-01

    Taking Jinjing Town in Dongting Lake area as a case, this paper analyzed the evolution of rural landscape patterns by means of life cycle theory, simulated the evolution cycle curve, and calculated its evolution period, then combining CA-Markov model, a complete prediction model was built based on the rule of rural landscape change. The results showed that rural settlement and paddy landscapes of Jinjing Town would change most in 2020, with the rural settlement landscape increased to 1194.01 hm2 and paddy landscape greatly reduced to 3090.24 hm2. The quantitative and spatial prediction accuracies of the model were up to 99.3% and 96.4%, respectively, being more explicit than single CA-Markov model. The prediction model of rural landscape patterns change proposed in this paper would be helpful for rural landscape planning in future.

  14. Continuum damage mechanics based approach to the fatigue life prediction of cast aluminium alloy with considering the effect of porosity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Xiaojia

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available A damage mechanics based approach is applied for the study of fatigue behaviour of high pressure die cast ADC12 aluminium alloy. A damage coupled elastoplastic constitutive model is presented according to the concept of effective stress and the hypothesis of strain equivalence. An elastic fatigue damage model taking into account the pore-induced stress concentration is developed to investigate fatigue damage evolution of the specimens subjected to cyclic loading. The predicted lives for the specimens with different sizes of pores are consistent with the experimental data. The pore-induced fatigue damage and the variation of fatigue life along with the size of pores are also investigated.

  15. Physics based modeling of a series parallel battery pack for asymmetry analysis, predictive control and life extension

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganesan, Nandhini; Basu, Suman; Hariharan, Krishnan S.; Kolake, Subramanya Mayya; Song, Taewon; Yeo, Taejung; Sohn, Dong Kee; Doo, Seokgwang

    2016-08-01

    Lithium-Ion batteries used for electric vehicle applications are subject to large currents and various operation conditions, making battery pack design and life extension a challenging problem. With increase in complexity, modeling and simulation can lead to insights that ensure optimal performance and life extension. In this manuscript, an electrochemical-thermal (ECT) coupled model for a 6 series × 5 parallel pack is developed for Li ion cells with NCA/C electrodes and validated against experimental data. Contribution of the cathode to overall degradation at various operating conditions is assessed. Pack asymmetry is analyzed from a design and an operational perspective. Design based asymmetry leads to a new approach of obtaining the individual cell responses of the pack from an average ECT output. Operational asymmetry is demonstrated in terms of effects of thermal gradients on cycle life, and an efficient model predictive control technique is developed. Concept of reconfigurable battery pack is studied using detailed simulations that can be used for effective monitoring and extension of battery pack life.

  16. Prediction of residual life of low-cycle fatigue in austenitic stainless steel based on indentation test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yonezu, Akio; Touda, Yuya; Kim, HakGui; Yoneda, Keishi; Sakihara, Masayuki; Minoshima; Kohji

    2011-01-01

    In this study, a method to predict residual life of low-cycle fatigue in austenitic stainless steel (SUS316NG) was proposed based on indentation test. Low-cycle fatigue tests for SUS316NG were first conducted based on uniaxial tensile-compressive loading under the control of true strain range. Applied strain ranges were varied from about 3 to 12%. Their hysteresis loops of stress and strain were monitored during the fatigue tests. Plastic deformation range in hysteresis loop at each cycle could be roughly expressed by bi-linear hardening rule, whose plastic properties involve yield stress and work-hardening coefficient. The cyclic plastic properties were found to be dependent on the number of cycles and applied strain range, due to work-hardening. We experimentally investigated the empirical relationship between the plastic properties and number of cycles for each applied strain range. It is found that the relationship quantitatively predicts the applied strain range and number of cycles, when the plastic properties, or yield stress and work-hardening coefficient were known. Indentation tests were applied to the samples subjected to low cycle fatigue test, in order to quantitatively determine the plastic properties. The estimated properties were assigned to the proposed relationship, yielding the applied strain range and the cycle numbers. The proposed method was applied to the several stainless steel samples subjected to low cycle fatigue tests, suggesting that their residual lives could be reasonably predicted. Our method is thus useful for predicting the residual life of low-cycle fatigue in austenitic stainless steel. (author)

  17. Predicting Smartphone Battery Life based on Comprehensive and Real-time Usage Data

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Huoran; Liu, Xuanzhe; Mei, Qiaozhu

    2018-01-01

    Smartphones and smartphone apps have undergone an explosive growth in the past decade. However, smartphone battery technology hasn't been able to keep pace with the rapid growth of the capacity and the functionality of smartphones and apps. As a result, battery has always been a bottleneck of a user's daily experience of smartphones. An accurate estimation of the remaining battery life could tremendously help the user to schedule their activities and use their smartphones more efficiently. Ex...

  18. Deep Learning to Predict Falls in Older Adults Based on Daily-Life Trunk Accelerometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Englebienne, Gwenn; Pijnappels, Mirjam

    2018-01-01

    Early detection of high fall risk is an essential component of fall prevention in older adults. Wearable sensors can provide valuable insight into daily-life activities; biomechanical features extracted from such inertial data have been shown to be of added value for the assessment of fall risk. Body-worn sensors such as accelerometers can provide valuable insight into fall risk. Currently, biomechanical features derived from accelerometer data are used for the assessment of fall risk. Here, we studied whether deep learning methods from machine learning are suited to automatically derive features from raw accelerometer data that assess fall risk. We used an existing dataset of 296 older adults. We compared the performance of three deep learning model architectures (convolutional neural network (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM) and a combination of these two (ConvLSTM)) to each other and to a baseline model with biomechanical features on the same dataset. The results show that the deep learning models in a single-task learning mode are strong in recognition of identity of the subject, but that these models only slightly outperform the baseline method on fall risk assessment. When using multi-task learning, with gender and age as auxiliary tasks, deep learning models perform better. We also found that preprocessing of the data resulted in the best performance (AUC = 0.75). We conclude that deep learning models, and in particular multi-task learning, effectively assess fall risk on the basis of wearable sensor data. PMID:29786659

  19. Deep Learning to Predict Falls in Older Adults Based on Daily-Life Trunk Accelerometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nait Aicha, Ahmed; Englebienne, Gwenn; van Schooten, Kimberley S; Pijnappels, Mirjam; Kröse, Ben

    2018-05-22

    Early detection of high fall risk is an essential component of fall prevention in older adults. Wearable sensors can provide valuable insight into daily-life activities; biomechanical features extracted from such inertial data have been shown to be of added value for the assessment of fall risk. Body-worn sensors such as accelerometers can provide valuable insight into fall risk. Currently, biomechanical features derived from accelerometer data are used for the assessment of fall risk. Here, we studied whether deep learning methods from machine learning are suited to automatically derive features from raw accelerometer data that assess fall risk. We used an existing dataset of 296 older adults. We compared the performance of three deep learning model architectures (convolutional neural network (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM) and a combination of these two (ConvLSTM)) to each other and to a baseline model with biomechanical features on the same dataset. The results show that the deep learning models in a single-task learning mode are strong in recognition of identity of the subject, but that these models only slightly outperform the baseline method on fall risk assessment. When using multi-task learning, with gender and age as auxiliary tasks, deep learning models perform better. We also found that preprocessing of the data resulted in the best performance (AUC = 0.75). We conclude that deep learning models, and in particular multi-task learning, effectively assess fall risk on the basis of wearable sensor data.

  20. Prediction of thermal fatigue life of ceramics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamiya, N.; Kamigaito, O.

    1979-01-01

    On the assumption that the thermal fatigue life of ceramics is determined mainly by the duration over which a crack reaches a small critical length, a prediction of the life was made by application of fracture mechanics to ceramics based on subcritical crack growth. Approximated formulae were derived. Experimental examination showed that the formulae proved to be valid for glass, sintered mullite under moderate shock severity, and zirconia. Data given by other authors also prove their validity. The deviation of the life from the formulae for sintered mullite under a thermal shock of extremely low severty, suggests that a certain mechanism, for example strengthening, is needed to understand the life of the sintered mullite. (author)

  1. Development of Reliability Based Life Prediction Methods for Thermal and Environmental Barrier Coatings in Ceramic Matrix Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Ashwin

    2001-01-01

    Literature survey related to the EBC/TBC (environmental barrier coating/thermal barrier coating) fife models, failure mechanisms in EBC/TBC and the initial work plan for the proposed EBC/TBC life prediction methods development was developed as well as the finite element model for the thermal/stress analysis of the GRC-developed EBC system was prepared. Technical report for these activities is given in the subsequent sections.

  2. Novel Approach for Lithium-Ion Battery On-Line Remaining Useful Life Prediction Based on Permutation Entropy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luping Chen

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The degradation of lithium-ion battery often leads to electrical system failure. Battery remaining useful life (RUL prediction can effectively prevent this failure. Battery capacity is usually utilized as health indicator (HI for RUL prediction. However, battery capacity is often estimated on-line and it is difficult to be obtained by monitoring on-line parameters. Therefore, there is a great need to find a simple and on-line prediction method to solve this issue. In this paper, as a novel HI, permutation entropy (PE is extracted from the discharge voltage curve for analyzing battery degradation. Then the similarity between PE and battery capacity are judged by Pearson and Spearman correlation analyses. Experiment results illustrate the effectiveness and excellent similar performance of the novel HI for battery fading indication. Furthermore, we propose a hybrid approach combining Variational mode decomposition (VMD denoising technique, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA, and GM(1,1 models for RUL prediction. Experiment results illustrate the accuracy of the proposed approach for lithium-ion battery on-line RUL prediction.

  3. Optimization of Steamed Meals Based on Composite Flour (Taro, Banana, Green Bean) and Its Predicted Shelf Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunarmani; Setyadjit; Ermi, S.

    2018-05-01

    Ongol-ongol is for food diversification by mixing composite flour of taro, banana and mung bean, then was steamed by hot air. The purpose of this study was to find out the optimum way to produce ‘ongol-ongol’ from composite flour and to know the storage life by prediction method. The research consisted of two stages, namely the determination of the optimum formula of ‘ongol-ongol’ with Design Expert DX 8.1.6 software and the estimation of product shelf life of the optimum formula by ASLT (Accelerated Shelf Life Test) method. The optimum formula of the steamed meal was produced from composite flour and arenga flour with ratio of 50: 50 and flour to water ratio of 1: 1. The proximate content of steamed meal of optimum formula is 36.53% moisture content, ash content of 1,36%, fat content of 14.48%, protein level of 28.5%, and carbohydrate of 44.77% (w/w). Energy Value obtained from 100 g of ‘ongol-ongol’ was 320.8 Kcal. Recommended for steamed meal storage life is 12.54 days at ambient temperature.

  4. A model for life predictions of nickel-base superalloys in high-temperature low cycle fatigue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanoski, Glenn R.; Pelloux, Regis M.; Antolovich, Stephen D.

    1988-01-01

    Extensive characterization of low-cycle fatigue damage mechanisms was performed on polycrystalline Rene 80 and IN100 tested in the temperature range from 871 to 1000 C. Low-cycle fatigue life was found to be dominated by propagation of microcracks to a critical size governed by the maximum tensile stress. A model was developed which incorporates a threshold stress for crack extension, a stress-based crack growth expression, and a failure criterion. The mathematical equivalence between this mechanistically based model and the strain-life low-cycle fatigue law was demonstrated using cyclic stress-strain relationships. The model was shown to correlate the high-temperature low-cycle fatigue data of the different nickel-base superalloys considered in this study.

  5. Service life prediction and cementitious composites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stoklund Larsen, E.

    The present Ph.D.thesis describes and discusses the applicability of a systematic methodology recommended by CIB W80/RILEM-PSL for sevice life prediction. The report describes the most important inherent and environmental factors affecting the service life of structures of cementitious composites....... On the basis of this discription of factors and experience from a test programme described in SBI Report 222, Service life prediction and fibre reinforced cementitious composites, the applicabillity of the CIB/RILEM methodology is discussed....

  6. Life Prediction of Low Cycle Fatigue for Ni-base Superalloy GTD111 DS at Elevated Temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jin Yeol; Yoon, Dong Hyun; Kim, Jae Hoon [Chungnam Nat’l Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Bae, Si Yeon; Chang, Sung Yong; Chang, Sung Ho [KEPCO Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-08-15

    GTD111 DS of nickel base superalloy has been used for gas turbine blades. In this study, low cycle fatigue test was conducted on the GTD111 DS alloy by setting conditions similar to the real operating environment. The low cycle fatigue tests were conducted at room temperature, 760 °C, 870 °C, and various strain amplitudes. Test results showed that fatigue life decreased with increasing total strain amplitude. Cyclic hardening response was observed at room temperature and 760 °C; however, tests conducted at 870 °C showed cyclic softening response. Stress relaxation was observed at 870 °C because creep effects occurred from holding time. A relationship between fatigue life and total strain range was obtained from the Coffin-Manson method. The fratography using a SEM was carried out at the crack initiation and propagation regions.

  7. End-of-Discharge and End-of-Life Prediction in Lithium-Ion Batteries with Electrochemistry-Based Aging Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daigle, Matthew; Kulkarni, Chetan S.

    2016-01-01

    As batteries become increasingly prevalent in complex systems such as aircraft and electric cars, monitoring and predicting battery state of charge and state of health becomes critical. In order to accurately predict the remaining battery power to support system operations for informed operational decision-making, age-dependent changes in dynamics must be accounted for. Using an electrochemistry-based model, we investigate how key parameters of the battery change as aging occurs, and develop models to describe aging through these key parameters. Using these models, we demonstrate how we can (i) accurately predict end-of-discharge for aged batteries, and (ii) predict the end-of-life of a battery as a function of anticipated usage. The approach is validated through an experimental set of randomized discharge profiles.

  8. High temperature strength data-base of SUS304 steel and a study on life prediction method under ceep-fatigue interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsubara, Masaaki; Nitta, Akito; Ogata, Takashi; Kuwabara, Kazuo

    1985-01-01

    As a part of ''Study for practical use of Tank Type FBR'', ''Practical use of inelastic analysis method to FBR structural design'' is carried out as a cooperative study for three years from 1984. In this cooperative study, to establish the life prediction method under creep-fatigue interaction is one of the most important theme. To attain this purpose, many different type tests are planned and then conducted. By the way, to use these many data rapidly and effectively, it is necessary to make a data base. So in this work, we developed the simple data base of high temperature strength. And the data of SUS304 obtained at this place to this day are inputted into this data base. Next, we investigated about five life prediction methods under creep-fatigue interaction, Frequency Modified Method, Ostergren Method, Strain Range Partitioning Method, Damage Rate Approach and Strain Energy Parameter Method. As a result, Strain Range Partitioning Method can predict the lives within Factor of 2. In the other four methods, it is supported that material constants in the prediction formula are dependent on temperature. (author)

  9. Creep life prediction of super heater coils used in coal based thermal power plants subjected to fly ash erosion and oxide scale formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivasan, P.; Kushwaha, Shashank

    2018-04-01

    Super heater coils of the coal based thermal power plants and subjected to severe operating conditions from both steam side and gas side. Formation of oxide scale due to prolonged service lead to temperature raise of the tube and erosion due to fly ash present in the combusted gases leads to tube thinning. Both these factors lead to creep rupture of the coils much before the designed service life. Failure of super heater coils during service of the boiler leads to power loss and huge monitory loss to the power plants. An attempt is made to model the creep damage caused to the super heater coils using heat transfer analysis tube thinning due to erosive wear of the tubes. Combined effects of these parameters are taken into consideration to predict the life of the super heater coils. This model may be used to estimate the life of the coils operating under the severe operating conditions to prevent the unexpected failure of the coils.

  10. Programming Useful Life Prediction (PULP), Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Accurately predicting Remaining Useful Life (RUL) provides significant benefits—it increases safety and reduces financial and labor resource requirements. Relying on...

  11. Risk Factors Analysis and Death Prediction in Some Life-Threatening Ailments Using Chi-Square Case-Based Reasoning (χ2 CBR) Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeniyi, D A; Wei, Z; Yang, Y

    2018-01-30

    A wealth of data are available within the health care system, however, effective analysis tools for exploring the hidden patterns in these datasets are lacking. To alleviate this limitation, this paper proposes a simple but promising hybrid predictive model by suitably combining the Chi-square distance measurement with case-based reasoning technique. The study presents the realization of an automated risk calculator and death prediction in some life-threatening ailments using Chi-square case-based reasoning (χ 2 CBR) model. The proposed predictive engine is capable of reducing runtime and speeds up execution process through the use of critical χ 2 distribution value. This work also showcases the development of a novel feature selection method referred to as frequent item based rule (FIBR) method. This FIBR method is used for selecting the best feature for the proposed χ 2 CBR model at the preprocessing stage of the predictive procedures. The implementation of the proposed risk calculator is achieved through the use of an in-house developed PHP program experimented with XAMP/Apache HTTP server as hosting server. The process of data acquisition and case-based development is implemented using the MySQL application. Performance comparison between our system, the NBY, the ED-KNN, the ANN, the SVM, the Random Forest and the traditional CBR techniques shows that the quality of predictions produced by our system outperformed the baseline methods studied. The result of our experiment shows that the precision rate and predictive quality of our system in most cases are equal to or greater than 70%. Our result also shows that the proposed system executes faster than the baseline methods studied. Therefore, the proposed risk calculator is capable of providing useful, consistent, faster, accurate and efficient risk level prediction to both the patients and the physicians at any time, online and on a real-time basis.

  12. Life Prediction on a T700 Carbon Fiber Reinforced Cylinder with Limited Accelerated Life Testing Data

    OpenAIRE

    Ma Xiaobing; Zhang Yongbo

    2015-01-01

    An accelerated life testing investigation was conducted on a composite cylinder that consists of aluminum alloy and T700 carbon fiber. The ultimate failure stress predictions of cylinders were obtained by the mixing rule and verified by the blasting static pressure method. Based on the stress prediction of cylinder under working conditions, the constant stress accelerated life test of the cylinder was designed. However, the failure data cannot be sufficiently obtained by the accelerated life ...

  13. Predicting product life cycle using fuzzy neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Mohammadi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important tasks of science in different fields is to find the relationships among various phenomena in order to predict future. Production and service organizations are not exceptions and they should predict future to survive. Predicting the life cycle of the organization's products is one of the most important prediction cases in an organization. Predicting the product life cycle provides an opportunity to identify the product position and help to get a better insight about competitors. This paper deals with the predictability of the product life cycle with Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS. The Population of this study was Pegah Fars products and the sample was this company's cheese products. In this regard, this paper attempts to model and predict the product life cycle of cheese products in Pegah Fars Company. In this due, a designed questionnaire was distributed among some experts, distributors and retailers and seven independent variables were selected. In this survey, ANFIS sales forecasting technique was employed and MATLAB software was used for data analysis. The results confirmed ANFIS as a good method to predict the product life cycle.

  14. A Predictive Framework for Thermomechanical Fatigue Life of High Silicon Molybdenum Ductile Cast Iron Based on Considerations of Strain Energy Dissipation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avery, Katherine R.

    Isothermal low cycle fatigue (LCF) and anisothermal thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) tests were conducted on a high silicon molybdenum (HiSiMo) cast iron for temperatures up to 1073K. LCF and out-of-phase (OP) TMF lives were significantly reduced when the temperature was near 673K due to an embrittlement phenomenon which decreases the ductility of HiSiMo at this temperature. In this case, intergranular fracture was predominant, and magnesium was observed at the fracture surface. When the thermal cycle did not include 673K, the failure mode was predominantly transgranular, and magnesium was not present on the fracture surface. The in-phase (IP) TMF lives were unaffected when the thermal cycle included 673K, and the predominant failure mode was found to be transgranular fracture, regardless of the temperature. No magnesium was present on the IP TMF fracture surfaces. Thus, the embrittlement phenomenon was found to contribute to fatigue damage only when the temperature was near 673K and a tensile stress was present. To account for the temperature- and stress-dependence of the embrittlement phenomenon on the TMF life of HiSiMo cast iron, an original model based on the cyclic inelastic energy dissipation is proposed which accounts for temperature-dependent differences in the rate of fatigue damage accumulation in tension and compression. The proposed model has few empirical parameters. Despite the simplicity of the model, the predicted fatigue life shows good agreement with more than 130 uniaxial low cycle and thermomechanical fatigue tests, cyclic creep tests, and tests conducted at slow strain rates and with hold times. The proposed model was implemented in a multiaxial formulation and applied to the fatigue life prediction of an exhaust manifold subjected to severe thermal cycles. The simulation results show good agreement with the failure locations and number of cycles to failure observed in a component-level experiment.

  15. Life Prediction on a T700 Carbon Fiber Reinforced Cylinder with Limited Accelerated Life Testing Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ma Xiaobing

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available An accelerated life testing investigation was conducted on a composite cylinder that consists of aluminum alloy and T700 carbon fiber. The ultimate failure stress predictions of cylinders were obtained by the mixing rule and verified by the blasting static pressure method. Based on the stress prediction of cylinder under working conditions, the constant stress accelerated life test of the cylinder was designed. However, the failure data cannot be sufficiently obtained by the accelerated life test due to the time limitation. Therefore, most of the data presented to be high censored in high stress level and zero-failure data in low stress level. When using the traditional method for rupture life prediction, the results showed to be of lower confidence. In this study, the consistency of failure mechanism for carbon fiber and cylinder was analyzed firstly. According to the analysis result, the statistical test information of carbon fiber could be utilized for the accelerated model constitution. Then, rupture life prediction method for cylinder was proposed based on the accelerated life test data and carbon fiber test data. In this way, the life prediction accuracy of cylinder could be improved obviously, and the results showed that the accuracy of this method increased by 35%.

  16. Innovative predictive maintenance concepts to improve life cycle management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tinga, Tiedo

    2014-01-01

    For naval systems with typically long service lives, high sustainment costs and strict availability requirements, an effective and efficient life cycle management process is very important. In this paper four approaches are discussed to improve that process: physics of failure based predictive

  17. Thermomechanical fatigue life prediction of high temperature components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seifert, Thomas; Hartrott, Philipp von; Riedel, Hermann; Siegele, Dieter [Fraunhofer-Inst. fuer Werkstoffmechanik (IWM), Freiburg (Germany)

    2009-07-01

    The aim of the work described in this paper is to provide a computational method for fatigue life prediction of high temperature components, in which the time and temperature dependent fatigue crack growth is a relevant damage mechanism. The fatigue life prediction is based on a law for microcrack growth and a fracture mechanics estimate of the cyclic crack tip opening displacement. In addition, a powerful model for nonisothermal cyclic plasticity is employed, and an efficient laboratory test procedure is proposed for the determination of the model parameters. The models are efficiently implemented into finite element programs and are used to predict the fatigue life of a cast iron exhaust manifold and a notch in the perimeter of a turbine rotor made of a ferritic/martensitic 10%-chromium steel. (orig.)

  18. Towards a unified fatigue life prediction method for marine structures

    CERN Document Server

    Cui, Weicheng; Wang, Fang

    2014-01-01

    In order to apply the damage tolerance design philosophy to design marine structures, accurate prediction of fatigue crack growth under service conditions is required. Now, more and more people have realized that only a fatigue life prediction method based on fatigue crack propagation (FCP) theory has the potential to explain various fatigue phenomena observed. In this book, the issues leading towards the development of a unified fatigue life prediction (UFLP) method based on FCP theory are addressed. Based on the philosophy of the UFLP method, the current inconsistency between fatigue design and inspection of marine structures could be resolved. This book presents the state-of-the-art and recent advances, including those by the authors, in fatigue studies. It is designed to lead the future directions and to provide a useful tool in many practical applications. It is intended to address to engineers, naval architects, research staff, professionals and graduates engaged in fatigue prevention design and survey ...

  19. Early Adolescent Affect Predicts Later Life Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kansky, Jessica; Allen, Joseph P; Diener, Ed

    2016-07-01

    Subjective well-being as a predictor for later behavior and health has highlighted its relationship to health, work performance, and social relationships. However, the majority of such studies neglect the developmental nature of well-being in contributing to important changes across the transition to adulthood. To examine the potential role of subjective well-being as a long-term predictor of critical life outcomes, we examined indicators of positive and negative affect at age 14 as predictors of relationship, adjustment, self-worth, and career outcomes a decade later at ages 23 to 25, controlling for family income and gender. We utilised multi-informant methods including reports from the target participant, close friends, and romantic partners in a demographically diverse community sample of 184 participants. Early adolescent positive affect predicted fewer relationship problems (less self-reported and partner-reported conflict, and greater friendship attachment as rated by close peers) and healthy adjustment to adulthood (lower levels of depression, anxiety, and loneliness). It also predicted positive work functioning (higher levels of career satisfaction and job competence) and increased self-worth. Negative affect did not significantly predict any of these important life outcomes. In addition to predicting desirable mean levels of later outcomes, early positive affect predicted beneficial changes across time in many outcomes. The findings extend early research on the beneficial outcomes of subjective well-being by having an earlier assessment of well-being, including informant reports in measuring a large variety of outcome variables, and by extending the findings to a lower socioeconomic group of a diverse and younger sample. The results highlight the importance of considering positive affect as an important component of subjective well-being distinct from negative affect. © 2016 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

  20. Predicting life-history adaptations to pollutants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maltby, L. [Univ. of Sheffield (United Kingdom). Dept. of Animal and Plant Sciences

    1995-12-31

    Animals may adapt to pollutant stress so that individuals from polluted environments are less susceptible than those from unpolluted environments. In addition to such direct adaptations, animals may respond to pollutant stress by life-history modifications; so-called indirect adaptations. This paper will demonstrate how, by combining life-history theory and toxicological data, it is possible to predict stress-induced alterations in reproductive output and offspring size. Pollutant-induced alterations in age-specific survival in favor of adults and reductions in juvenile growth, conditions are predicted to select for reduced investment in reproduction and the allocation of this investment into fewer, larger offspring. Field observations on the freshwater crustaceans, Asellus aquaticus and Gammarus pulex, support these predictions. Females from metal-polluted sites had lower investment in reproduction and produced larger offspring than females of the same species from unpolluted sites. Moreover, interpopulation differences in reproductive biology persisted in laboratory cultures indicating that they had a genetic basis and were therefore due to adaptation rather than acclimation. The general applicability of this approach will be considered.

  1. Thermomechanical fatigue life prediction for several solders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Shengmin

    Since solder connections operate at high homologous temperature, solders are high temperature materials. This feature makes their mechanical behavior and fatigue phenomena unique. Based on experimental findings, a physical damage mechanism is introduced for solders. The mechanism views the damage process as a series of independent local damage events characterized by the failure of individual grains, while the structural damage is the eventual percolation result of such local events. Fine's dislocation energy density concept and Mura's microcrack initiation theory are adopted to derive the fatigue formula for an individual grain. A physical damage metric is introduced to describe the material with damage. A unified creep and plasticity constitutive model is adopted to simulate the mechanical behavior of solders. The model is cast into a continuum damage mechanics framework to simulate material with damage. The model gives good agreement with the experimental results of 96.5Pb-3.5Sn and 96.5Sn-3.5Ag solders under uniaxial strain-controlled cyclic loading. The model is convenient for implementation into commercial computational packages. Also presented is a fatigue theory with its failure criterion for solders based on physical damage mechanism. By introducing grain orientation into the fatigue formula, an m-N curve (m is Schmid factor) at constant loading condition is suggested for fatigue of grains with different orientations. A solder structure is defined as fatigued when the damage metric reaches a critical threshold, since at this threshold the failed grains may form a cluster and percolate through the structure according to percolation theory. Fatigue data of 96.5Pb-3.5Sn solder bulk specimens under various uniaxial tension tests were analyzed. Results show that the theory gives consistent predictions under broad conditions, while inelastic strain theory does not. The theory is anisotropic with no size limitation to its application, which could be suitable for

  2. The life prediction study of Rokkasho reprocessing plant materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiuchi, K.; Yano, M.; Takizawa, M.; Shibata, S.

    1998-01-01

    The life prediction study of major equipment materials used in heavily corrosive nitric acid solutions of the RRP was carried out. The nitric acid recovery made of type 304ULC austenitic steel and the dissolver made of type 705 metallic zirconium are selected on the present study. This study is composed of major three programs, namely, the mock-up tests by small-sized equipments simulated to the practical design, laboratory tests for examining corrosion controlling factors by small specimens and to establish the data base system for the life prediction. Important parameters on this study was extracted with analyzing the past data of the life prediction on the Tokai reprocessing equipments. The mock-ups design was made by considering the quantitative evaluation of the most important parts on objective equipments, namely, heat conducting tubes in an acid recovery evaporator and a thermal jacket in a dissolver. From pre-examinations, the effects of radioactive species, nitric acid solution chemistry, the corrosion mechanisms were elucidated. Mock-up testing conditions corrosion monitoring methods and a data base concept for the the life prediction were selected from pre-examination data by referencing the plant operation planning. (author)

  3. Report on an Assessment of the Application of EPP Results from the Strain Limit Evaluation Procedure to the Prediction of Cyclic Life Based on the SMT Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jetter, R. I. [R. I. Jetter Consulting, Pebble Beach, CA (United States); Messner, M. C. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sham, T. -L. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wang, Y. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-08-01

    The goal of the proposed integrated Elastic Perfectly-Plastic (EPP) and Simplified Model Test (SMT) methodology is to incorporate an SMT data based approach for creep-fatigue damage evaluation into the EPP methodology to avoid the separate evaluation of creep and fatigue damage and eliminate the requirement for stress classification in current methods; thus greatly simplifying evaluation of elevated temperature cyclic service. This methodology should minimize over-conservatism while properly accounting for localized defects and stress risers. To support the implementation of the proposed methodology and to verify the applicability of the code rules, analytical studies and evaluation of thermomechanical test results continued in FY17. This report presents the results of those studies. An EPP strain limits methodology assessment was based on recent two-bar thermal ratcheting test results on 316H stainless steel in the temperature range of 405 to 7050C. Strain range predictions from the EPP evaluation of the two-bar tests were also evaluated and compared with the experimental results. The role of sustained primary loading on cyclic life was assessed using the results of pressurized SMT data from tests on Alloy 617 at 9500C. A viscoplastic material model was used in an analytic simulation of two-bar tests to compare with EPP strain limits assessments using isochronous stress strain curves that are consistent with the viscoplastic material model. A finite element model of a prior 304H stainless steel Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) nozzle-to-sphere test was developed and used for an EPP strain limits and creep-fatigue code case damage evaluations. A theoretical treatment of a recurring issue with convergence criteria for plastic shakedown illustrated the role of computer machine precision in EPP calculations.

  4. Decomposition Technique for Remaining Useful Life Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Bhaskar (Inventor); Goebel, Kai F. (Inventor); Saxena, Abhinav (Inventor); Celaya, Jose R. (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    The prognostic tool disclosed here decomposes the problem of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a component or sub-system into two separate regression problems: the feature-to-damage mapping and the operational conditions-to-damage-rate mapping. These maps are initially generated in off-line mode. One or more regression algorithms are used to generate each of these maps from measurements (and features derived from these), operational conditions, and ground truth information. This decomposition technique allows for the explicit quantification and management of different sources of uncertainty present in the process. Next, the maps are used in an on-line mode where run-time data (sensor measurements and operational conditions) are used in conjunction with the maps generated in off-line mode to estimate both current damage state as well as future damage accumulation. Remaining life is computed by subtracting the instance when the extrapolated damage reaches the failure threshold from the instance when the prediction is made.

  5. Are the Performance Based Logistics Prophets Using Science or Alchemy to Create Life-Cycle Affordability? Using Theory to Predict the Efficacy of Performance Based Logistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-01

    certain PBL ecosystems , their suppliers, customers, and integrator, can efficiently adapt to environmental changes, and thus predict competitive...capability = budget – cost. An effective entrepreneurial program leader will increase capability (i.e., lethality, maintainability, and/or

  6. A summary of methods of predicting reliability life of nuclear equipment with small samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao Weixian

    2000-03-01

    Some of nuclear equipment are manufactured in small batch, e.g., 1-3 sets. Their service life may be very difficult to determine experimentally in view of economy and technology. The method combining theoretical analysis with material tests to predict the life of equipment is put forward, based on that equipment consists of parts or elements which are made of different materials. The whole life of an equipment part consists of the crack forming life (i.e., the fatigue life or the damage accumulation life) and the crack extension life. Methods of predicting machine life has systematically summarized with the emphasis on those which use theoretical analysis to substitute large scale prototype experiments. Meanwhile, methods and steps of predicting reliability life have been described by taking into consideration of randomness of various variables and parameters in engineering. Finally, the latest advance and trends of machine life prediction are discussed

  7. The Prediction of Mental Quality of Life Based on Defectiveness/Shame Schema with Mediating Role of Emotional Intelligence and Coping Strategies by Means of Structural Equations Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Dehghani

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Early maladaptive schema is assumed to be a disrupting factor for quality of life. Yet, the mechanism of this vulnerability is not well known. The purpose of this study was to investigate the characteristic of emotional intelligence and coping strategy with stress as a mediator between early maladaptive defectiveness/ shame and mental quality of life. Participants were 245 men and women in Isfahan who were selected as the sample by availability sampling method. They completed the Petrides and Furnham's Trait Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire-Short Form (TEIQue-SF, Coping Inventory for stressful situation (CISS and WHO Quality of Life-BREF (WHOQOL-BREF and Young Schema Questionnaire-Short Form (YSQ-SF. Data was analyzed by means of structural equation modeling. The results indicated that the suggested model of study needs modification and only emotional intelligence was the mediator. Standard path coefficient of defectiveness/shame schema to emotional intelligence was -0.55 and emotional intelligence to problem focused coping, emotion focused coping and mental quality of life were 0.49, -0.59 and 0.78 (p<0.05. Based on results, emotional intelligence training can improve mental quality of life and coping strategies in people who have early defectiveness/shame maladaptive schema.

  8. Predicting the residual life of plant equipment - Why worry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaske, C.E.

    1985-01-01

    Predicting the residual life of plant equipment that has been in service for 20 to 30 years or more is a major concern of many industries. This paper reviews the reasons for increased concern for residual-life assessment and the general procedures used in performing such assessments. Some examples and case histories illustrating procedures for assessing remaining service life are discussed. Areas where developments are needed to improve the technology for remaining-life estimation are pointed out. Then, some of the critical issues involved in residual-life assessment are identified. Finally, the future role of residual-life prediction is addressed

  9. Failure analysis and seal life prediction for contacting mechanical seals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, J. J.; He, X. Y.; Wei, L.; Feng, X.

    2008-11-01

    Fault tree analysis method was applied to quantitatively investigate the causes of the leakage failure of mechanical seals. It is pointed out that the change of the surface topography is the main reasons causing the leakage of mechanical seals under the condition of constant preloads. Based on the fractal geometry theory, the relationship between the surface topography and working time were investigated by experiments, and the effects of unit load acting on seal face on leakage path in a mechanical seal were analyzed. The model of predicting seal life of mechanical seals was established on the basis of the relationship between the surface topography and working time and allowable leakage. The seal life of 108 mechanical seal operating at the system of diesel fuel storage and transportation was predicted and the problem of the condition monitoring for the long-period operation of mechanical seal was discussed by this method. The research results indicate that the method of predicting seal life of mechanical seals is feasible, and also is foundation to make scheduled maintenance time and to achieve safe-reliability and low-cost operation for industrial devices.

  10. Life prediction technology of structural materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagata, Norio

    1992-01-01

    There is empirically the time limit of use in all industrial plants and components. By defining the loss of functions as the expiration of life, if the forecast of life time or residual life of plants and components can be done, a very useful means becomes available for safety and economical efficiency. The life of plants is controlled by the occurrence and extension of defects in materials, and by the life of the material which is placed under most severe condition. Such severe condition is the environment of use itself with high temperature, corrosive environment, load, vibration and so on. The forecast of material life is to quantitatively grasp the damage behavior of materials under such condition, and to carry out the time control of the functions of plants by defect control. The time dependence of material damage such as fatigue damage, creep damage and corrosion damage is discussed. The forecast of material life by empirical knowledge and theoretical inference and the forecast of residual life are explained. Finally, the forecast of the life time of light water reactors is described as those constructed in initial period approach their design life. (K.I.)

  11. Damage-based life prediction model for uniaxial low-cycle stress fatigue of super-elastic NiTi shape memory alloy microtubes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Di; Kang, Guozheng; Kan, Qianhua; Yu, Chao; Zhang, Chuanzeng

    2015-08-01

    Based on the experimental observations for the uniaxial low-cycle stress fatigue failure of super-elastic NiTi shape memory alloy microtubes (Song et al 2015 Smart Mater. Struct. 24 075004) and a new definition of damage variable corresponding to the variation of accumulated dissipation energy, a phenomenological damage model is proposed to describe the damage evolution of the NiTi microtubes during cyclic loading. Then, with a failure criterion of Dc = 1, the fatigue lives of the NiTi microtubes are predicted by the damage-based model, the predicted lives are in good agreement with the experimental ones, and all of the points are located within an error band of 1.5 times.

  12. Damage-based life prediction model for uniaxial low-cycle stress fatigue of super-elastic NiTi shape memory alloy microtubes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Di; Kang, Guozheng; Kan, Qianhua; Yu, Chao; Zhang, Chuanzeng

    2015-01-01

    Based on the experimental observations for the uniaxial low-cycle stress fatigue failure of super-elastic NiTi shape memory alloy microtubes (Song et al 2015 Smart Mater. Struct. 24 075004) and a new definition of damage variable corresponding to the variation of accumulated dissipation energy, a phenomenological damage model is proposed to describe the damage evolution of the NiTi microtubes during cyclic loading. Then, with a failure criterion of D c = 1, the fatigue lives of the NiTi microtubes are predicted by the damage-based model, the predicted lives are in good agreement with the experimental ones, and all of the points are located within an error band of 1.5 times. (paper)

  13. Entropy and the Predictability of Online Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberta Sinatra

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Using mobile phone records and information theory measures, our daily lives have been recently shown to follow strict statistical regularities, and our movement patterns are, to a large extent, predictable. Here, we apply entropy and predictability measures to two datasets of the behavioral actions and the mobility of a large number of players in the virtual universe of a massive multiplayer online game. We find that movements in virtual human lives follow the same high levels of predictability as offline mobility, where future movements can, to some extent, be predicted well if the temporal correlations of visited places are accounted for. Time series of behavioral actions show similar high levels of predictability, even when temporal correlations are neglected. Entropy conditional on specific behavioral actions reveals that in terms of predictability, negative behavior has a wider variety than positive actions. The actions that contain the information to best predict an individual’s subsequent action are negative, such as attacks or enemy markings, while the positive actions of friendship marking, trade and communication contain the least amount of predictive information. These observations show that predicting behavioral actions requires less information than predicting the mobility patterns of humans for which the additional knowledge of past visited locations is crucial and that the type and sign of a social relation has an essential impact on the ability to determine future behavior.

  14. Residual life of technical systems; diagnosis, prediction and life extension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinertsen, Rune

    1996-01-01

    The paper presents and discusses research related to residual life of non-repairable and repairable technical systems. Diagnosis of systems and extension of residual life of technical systems are also presented and discussed. This paper concludes that research published describing determination and extension of residual life as well as methods for diagnosis of non-repairable and repairable technical systems, is somewhat limited. Many papers have a rather pragmatic approach. The authors only describe special cases from their own plant and do not provide any explanation of a more academical nature. The other papers are mainly describing very specific applications of statistical models, leaving the more general case out of consideration. One of the main results of this paper is to point out these facts, and thereby identify the need for future research in this area

  15. Predicting Battery Life for Electric UAVs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper presents a novel battery health management technology for the new generation of electric unmanned aerial vehicles powered by long-life, high-density,...

  16. Life Prediction Methodologies for Aerospace Materials

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ashbaugh, N. E; Brockman, R. A; Buchanan, D. J; Hartman, G. A; Huston, A. L; Li, K; Porter, W. J

    2004-01-01

    Superalloys IN-100, Ren 88DT, Waspaloy, and titanium alloys were investigated. For life-limiting responses in superalloys, highly localized stress-deformation behaviors associated with both typical and unusual defects were developed...

  17. Fatigue life prediction in woven carbon fabric polyester composites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, Z.; Al-Sulaiman, F.S.; Farooqi, J.K.

    1999-01-01

    An analytical model, based on stiffness degradation during fatigue loading, which has been used for fatigue life predictions in the Fiber Reinforced Plastics (FRP), is employed to examine its validity to the fatigue life predictions in the Woven Fabric Reinforced Plastics. The rate of stiffness degradation (dE/dN) has been obtained from the constant amplitude fatigue testing of 8-ply coupons made from prepreg plain-weave woven carbon-carbon fabric having a polyester resin as the matrix material. The test coupons had three different ply stacking sequences, namely, the unidirectional (0)8,and two off axis plied (0,0,+45,-45)s, and (+45,-45,0,0)s orientations. The estimated fatigue lives obtained from the damage rate function dD/dN, which in turn was a function of the stiffness degradation rate dE/dN, were compared with the experimentally observed fatigue life data. It is shown that the stiffness degradation model provides reasonably good correlation between the analytically determined fatigue lives and the experimentally observed fatigue for the plain-weave woven Carbon-Carbon Fabric Reinforced Plastic Composites. (author)

  18. Recent Methodologies for Creep Deformation Analysis and Its Life Prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woo-Gon; Park, Jae-Young; Iung

    2016-01-01

    To design the high-temperature creeping materials, various creep data are needed for codification, as follows: i) stress vs. creep rupture time for base metals and weldments (average and minimum), ii) stress vs. time to 1% total strain (average), iii) stress vs. time to onset of tertiary creep (minimum), and iv) constitutive eqns. for conducting time- and temperature- dependent stress-strain (average), and v) isochronous stress-strain curves (average). Also, elevated temperature components such as those used in modern power generation plant are designed using allowable stress under creep conditions. The allowable stress is usually estimated on the basis of up to 10"5 h creep rupture strength at the operating temperature. The master curve of the “sinh” function was found to have a wider acceptance with good flexibility in the low stress ranges beyond the experimental data. The proposed multi-C method in the LM parameter revealed better life prediction than a single-C method. These improved methodologies can be utilized to accurately predict the long-term creep life or strength of Gen-IV nuclear materials which are designed for life span of 60 years

  19. Time-dependent fatigue--phenomenology and life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coffin, L.F.

    1979-01-01

    The time-dependent fatigue behavior of materials used or considered for use in present and advanced systems for power generation is outlined. A picture is first presented to show how basic mechanisms and phenomenological information relate to the performance of the component under consideration through the so-called local strain approach. By this means life prediction criteria and design rules can be formulated utilizing laboratory test information which is directly translated to predicting the performance of a component. The body of phenomenological information relative to time-dependent fatigue is reviewed. Included are effects of strain range, strain rate and frequency, environment and wave shape, all of which are shown to be important in developing both an understanding and design base for time dependent fatigue. Using this information, some of the current methods being considered for the life prediction of components are reviewed. These include the current ASME code case, frequency-modified fatigue equations, strain range partitioning, the damage function method, frequency separation and damage rate equations. From this review, it is hoped that a better perspective on future directions for basic material science at high temperature can be achieved

  20. Statistical characterization of pitting corrosion process and life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheikh, A.K.; Younas, M.

    1995-01-01

    In order to prevent corrosion failures of machines and structures, it is desirable to know in advance when the corrosion damage will take place, and appropriate measures are needed to mitigate the damage. The corrosion predictions are needed both at development as well as operational stage of machines and structures. There are several forms of corrosion process through which varying degrees of damage can occur. Under certain conditions these corrosion processes at alone and in other set of conditions, several of these processes may occur simultaneously. For a certain type of machine elements and structures, such as gears, bearing, tubes, pipelines, containers, storage tanks etc., are particularly prone to pitting corrosion which is an insidious form of corrosion. The corrosion predictions are usually based on experimental results obtained from test coupons and/or field experiences of similar machines or parts of a structure. Considerable scatter is observed in corrosion processes. The probabilities nature and kinetics of pitting process makes in necessary to use statistical method to forecast the residual life of machine of structures. The focus of this paper is to characterization pitting as a time-dependent random process, and using this characterization the prediction of life to reach a critical level of pitting damage can be made. Using several data sets from literature on pitting corrosion, the extreme value modeling of pitting corrosion process, the evolution of the extreme value distribution in time, and their relationship to the reliability of machines and structure are explained. (author)

  1. Actual service life prediction of building components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aagaard, Niels-Jørgen; Brandt, Erik; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, sustainability and life cycle cost in the construction industry have been given great attention in many countries due to the heavy climatic and environmental impact from this sector. In Denmark, a sustainability certification scheme for buildings has been developed including....... Finally, it is discussed how to adjust the model for practical purposes, and a scheme for actual service life for selected building components important for analysis of sustainability is linked. The schemes are now being implemented as basis for sustainability certification of new buildings in Denmark....

  2. Solid-state lighting life prediction using extended Kalman filter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lall, Pradeep [Auburn Univ., AL (United States); Wei, Junchao [Auburn Univ., AL (United States); Davis, Lynn [RTI International, Durham, NC (United States)

    2013-07-16

    -80 test data for various LEDs have been used for model development. System state has been described in state space form using the measurement of the feature vector, velocity of feature vector change and the acceleration of the feature vector change. System state at each future time has been computed based on the state space at preceding time step, system dynamics matrix, control vector, control matrix, measurement matrix, measured vector, process noise and measurement noise. The future state of the lumen depreciation has been estimated based on a second order Kalman Filter model and a Bayesian Framework. The measured state variable has been related to the underlying damage using physics-based models. Life prediction of L70 life for the LEDs used in SSL luminaires from KF and EKF based models have been compared with the TM-21 model predictions and experimental data.

  3. Patterns, Entropy, and Predictability of Human Mobility and Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Shao-Meng; Verkasalo, Hannu; Mohtaschemi, Mikael; Hartonen, Tuomo; Alava, Mikko

    2012-01-01

    Cellular phones are now offering an ubiquitous means for scientists to observe life: how people act, move and respond to external influences. They can be utilized as measurement devices of individual persons and for groups of people of the social context and the related interactions. The picture of human life that emerges shows complexity, which is manifested in such data in properties of the spatiotemporal tracks of individuals. We extract from smartphone-based data for a set of persons important locations such as “home”, “work” and so forth over fixed length time-slots covering the days in the data-set (see also [1], [2]). This set of typical places is heavy-tailed, a power-law distribution with an exponent close to −1.7. To analyze the regularities and stochastic features present, the days are classified for each person into regular, personal patterns. To this are superimposed fluctuations for each day. This randomness is measured by “life” entropy, computed both before and after finding the clustering so as to subtract the contribution of a number of patterns. The main issue that we then address is how predictable individuals are in their mobility. The patterns and entropy are reflected in the predictability of the mobility of the life both individually and on average. We explore the simple approaches to guess the location from the typical behavior, and of exploiting the transition probabilities with time from location or activity A to B. The patterns allow an enhanced predictability, at least up to a few hours into the future from the current location. Such fixed habits are most clearly visible in the working-day length. PMID:23300542

  4. Prediction and evaluation of route dependent dosimetry of BPA in rats at different life stages using a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Xiaoxia, E-mail: Xiaoxia.Yang@fda.hhs.gov; Doerge, Daniel R.; Fisher, Jeffrey W.

    2013-07-01

    Bisphenol A (BPA) has received considerable attention throughout the last decade due to its widespread use in consumer products. For the first time a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was developed in neonatal and adult rats to quantitatively evaluate age-dependent pharmacokinetics of BPA and its phase II metabolites. The PBPK model was calibrated in adult rats using studies on BPA metabolism and excretion in the liver and gastrointestinal tract, and pharmacokinetic data with BPA in adult rats. For immature rats the hepatic and gastrointestinal metabolism of BPA was inferred from studies on the maturation of phase II enzymes coupled with serum time course data in pups. The calibrated model predicted the measured serum concentrations of BPA and BPA conjugates after administration of 100 μg/kg of d6-BPA in adult rats (oral gavage and intravenous administration) and postnatal days 3, 10, and 21 pups (oral gavage). The observed age-dependent BPA serum concentrations were partially attributed to the immature metabolic capacity of pups. A comparison of the dosimetry of BPA across immature rats and monkeys suggests that dose adjustments would be necessary to extrapolate toxicity studies from neonatal rats to infant humans. - Highlights: • A PBPK model predicts the kinetics of bisphenol A (BPA) in young and adult rats. • BPA metabolism within enterocytes is required for fitting of oral BPA kinetic data. • BPA dosimetry in young rats is different than adult rats and young monkeys.

  5. Prediction and evaluation of route dependent dosimetry of BPA in rats at different life stages using a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Xiaoxia; Doerge, Daniel R.; Fisher, Jeffrey W.

    2013-01-01

    Bisphenol A (BPA) has received considerable attention throughout the last decade due to its widespread use in consumer products. For the first time a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was developed in neonatal and adult rats to quantitatively evaluate age-dependent pharmacokinetics of BPA and its phase II metabolites. The PBPK model was calibrated in adult rats using studies on BPA metabolism and excretion in the liver and gastrointestinal tract, and pharmacokinetic data with BPA in adult rats. For immature rats the hepatic and gastrointestinal metabolism of BPA was inferred from studies on the maturation of phase II enzymes coupled with serum time course data in pups. The calibrated model predicted the measured serum concentrations of BPA and BPA conjugates after administration of 100 μg/kg of d6-BPA in adult rats (oral gavage and intravenous administration) and postnatal days 3, 10, and 21 pups (oral gavage). The observed age-dependent BPA serum concentrations were partially attributed to the immature metabolic capacity of pups. A comparison of the dosimetry of BPA across immature rats and monkeys suggests that dose adjustments would be necessary to extrapolate toxicity studies from neonatal rats to infant humans. - Highlights: • A PBPK model predicts the kinetics of bisphenol A (BPA) in young and adult rats. • BPA metabolism within enterocytes is required for fitting of oral BPA kinetic data. • BPA dosimetry in young rats is different than adult rats and young monkeys

  6. Service life prediction of exterior plastics vision for the future

    CERN Document Server

    Martin, Jon; Chapin, J

    2015-01-01

    This book defines the current state-of-the-art for predicting the lifetime of plastics exposed to weather and outlines future research needed to advance this important field of study. Coverage includes progress in developing new science and test methods to determine how materials respond to weather exposure. This book is ideal for researchers and professionals working in the field of service life prediction. This book also: Examines numerous consensus standards that affect commercial products allowing readers to see the future of standards related to service life prediction Provides the scientific foundation for the latest commercially viable instruments Presents groundbreaking research, including the blueprint of a new test method that will significantly shorten the service life prediction process time Covers two of the latest verified predictive models, which demonstrate realized-potential to transform the field

  7. Computational thermofracture mechanics and life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsu Tairan

    1992-01-01

    This paper will present computational techniques used for the prediction of the thermofracture behaviour of structures subject to either monotonic or cyclic combined thermal and mechanical loadings. Two specific areas will be dealt with in the paper. (1) The Time-invariant thermofracture of leaking pipelines with non-uniform temperature fields; in this case, the induced non-uniform temperature fields near leaking cracks have shown to be significant. The severity of these temperature fields on the thermofracture behaviour of the pipeline will be demonstrated by a numerical example. (2) Thermomechanical creep fracture of structures: Recent developments, including those of the author's own work, on cyclic creep-fracture using damage theory will be presented. Long 'hold' and 'dwell' times, which occur in the actual operations of nuclear power plant components have been shown to have a significant effect on the overall creep-fracture behaviour of the material. Constitutive laws, which include most of these effects, have been incorporated into the existing TEPSAC code for the prediction of crack growth in solids under cyclic creep loadings. The effectiveness of using the damage parameters as fracture criteria, and the presence of plastic deformation in the overall results will be assessed. (orig.)

  8. Life history theory predicts fish assemblage response to hydrologic regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mims, Meryl C; Olden, Julian D

    2012-01-01

    The hydrologic regime is regarded as the primary driver of freshwater ecosystems, structuring the physical habitat template, providing connectivity, framing biotic interactions, and ultimately selecting for specific life histories of aquatic organisms. In the present study, we tested ecological theory predicting directional relationships between major dimensions of the flow regime and life history composition of fish assemblages in perennial free-flowing rivers throughout the continental United States. Using long-term discharge records and fish trait and survey data for 109 stream locations, we found that 11 out of 18 relationships (61%) tested between the three life history strategies (opportunistic, periodic, and equilibrium) and six hydrologic metrics (two each describing flow variability, predictability, and seasonality) were statistically significant (P history strategies, with 82% of all significant relationships observed supporting predictions from life history theory. Specifically, we found that (1) opportunistic strategists were positively related to measures of flow variability and negatively related to predictability and seasonality, (2) periodic strategists were positively related to high flow seasonality and negatively related to variability, and (3) the equilibrium strategists were negatively related to flow variability and positively related to predictability. Our study provides important empirical evidence illustrating the value of using life history theory to understand both the patterns and processes by which fish assemblage structure is shaped by adaptation to natural regimes of variability, predictability, and seasonality of critical flow events over broad biogeographic scales.

  9. Application of structural reliability and risk assessment to life prediction and life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, T.A.; Balkey, K.R.; Bishop, B.A.

    1987-01-01

    There can be numerous uncertainties involved in performing component life assessments. In addition, sufficient data may be unavailable to make a useful life prediction. Structural Reliability and Risk Assessment (SRRA) is primarily an analytical methodology or tool that quantifies the impact of uncertainties on the structural life of plant components and can address the lack of data in component life prediction. As a prelude to discussing the technical aspects of SRRA, a brief review of general component life prediction methods is first made so as to better develop an understanding of the role of SRRA in such evaluations. SRRA is then presented as it is applied in component life evaluations with example applications being discussed for both nuclear and non-nuclear components

  10. A study of fatigue life prediction for automotive spot weldment using local strain approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Song In; Yu, Hyo Sun; Na, Sung Hun; Na, Eui Gyun

    2000-01-01

    The fatigue crack initiation life is studied on automotive spot weldment made from cold rolled carbon steel(SPC) sheet by using DCPDM and local strain approach. It can be found that the fatigue crack initiation behavior in spot weldment can be definitely detected by DCPDM system. The local stresses and strains are estimated by elastic-plastic FEM analysis and the alternative approximate method based on Neuber's rule were applied to predict the fatigue life of spot weldment. A satisfactory correlation between the predicted life and experimental life can be found in spot weldment within a factor of 4

  11. FORMULASI TEPUNG PENYALUT BERBASIS TEPUNG JAGUNG DAN PENENTUAN UMUR SIMPANNYA DENGAN PENDEKATAN KADAR AIR KRITIS [Formulation of Corn Flour-Based Batter and Prediction of Its Shelf Life using Critical Moisture Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sugiyono1*

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this study were to obtain the best formula for corn flour-based batter and to predict its shelf life using critical moisture approach. According to a hedonic test, the best batter formula was composed of 60% corn flour, 12.5% rice flour, 12.5% tapioca starch, and 15% glutinous rice flour. Addition of glutinous rice flour in the formula changed the proportion of amylose and amylopectin in the batter. As a result, the retrogradation of the batter decreased and the texture of its fried product was preferred. A critical moisture approach was used to predict the shelf life of the batter. The critical moisture content of the batter was 0.16 g H2O/g solid.The isotherm sorption phenomenon of the batter was best described using Hasley model. The shelf life of the product was 7 months when packaged in polypropylene (0,07 g/m2day.mmHg at 85% RH.

  12. Prediction based on mean subset

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øjelund, Henrik; Brown, P. J.; Madsen, Henrik

    2002-01-01

    , it is found that the proposed mean subset method has superior prediction performance than prediction based on the best subset method, and in some settings also better than the ridge regression and lasso methods. The conclusions drawn from the Monte Carlo study is corroborated in an example in which prediction......Shrinkage methods have traditionally been applied in prediction problems. In this article we develop a shrinkage method (mean subset) that forms an average of regression coefficients from individual subsets of the explanatory variables. A Bayesian approach is taken to derive an expression of how...... the coefficient vectors from each subset should be weighted. It is not computationally feasible to calculate the mean subset coefficient vector for larger problems, and thus we suggest an algorithm to find an approximation to the mean subset coefficient vector. In a comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation study...

  13. Fatigue life prediction and strength degradation of wind turbine rotor blade composites

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijssen, R.P.L.

    2006-01-01

    Wind turbine rotor blades are subjected to a large number of highly variable loads, but life predictions are typically based on constant amplitude fatigue behaviour. Therefore, it is important to determine how service life under variable amplitude fatigue can be estimated from constant amplitude

  14. Neural Network Modeling to Predict Shelf Life of Greenhouse Lettuce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Chin Lin

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Greenhouse-grown butter lettuce (Lactuca sativa L. can potentially be stored for 21 days at constant 0°C. When storage temperature was increased to 5°C or 10°C, shelf life was shortened to 14 or 10 days, respectively, in our previous observations. Also, commercial shelf life of 7 to 10 days is common, due to postharvest temperature fluctuations. The objective of this study was to establish neural network (NN models to predict the remaining shelf life (RSL under fluctuating postharvest temperatures. A box of 12 - 24 lettuce heads constituted a sample unit. The end of the shelf life of each head was determined when it showed initial signs of decay or yellowing. Air temperatures inside a shipping box were recorded. Daily average temperatures in storage and averaged shelf life of each box were used as inputs, and the RSL was modeled as an output. An R2 of 0.57 could be observed when a simple NN structure was employed. Since the "future" (or remaining storage temperatures were unavailable at the time of making a prediction, a second NN model was introduced to accommodate a range of future temperatures and associated shelf lives. Using such 2-stage NN models, an R2 of 0.61 could be achieved for predicting RSL. This study indicated that NN modeling has potential for cold chain quality control and shelf life prediction.

  15. A method for uncertainty quantification in the life prediction of gas turbine components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lodeby, K.; Isaksson, O.; Jaervstraat, N. [Volvo Aero Corporation, Trolhaettan (Sweden)

    1998-12-31

    A failure in an aircraft jet engine can have severe consequences which cannot be accepted and high requirements are therefore raised on engine reliability. Consequently, assessment of the reliability of life predictions used in design and maintenance are important. To assess the validity of the predicted life a method to quantify the contribution to the total uncertainty in the life prediction from different uncertainty sources is developed. The method is a structured approach for uncertainty quantification that uses a generic description of the life prediction process. It is based on an approximate error propagation theory combined with a unified treatment of random and systematic errors. The result is an approximate statistical distribution for the predicted life. The method is applied on life predictions for three different jet engine components. The total uncertainty became of reasonable order of magnitude and a good qualitative picture of the distribution of the uncertainty contribution from the different sources was obtained. The relative importance of the uncertainty sources differs between the three components. It is also highly dependent on the methods and assumptions used in the life prediction. Advantages and disadvantages of this method is discussed. (orig.) 11 refs.

  16. Simulation work of fatigue life prediction of rubber automotive components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samad, M S A; Ali, Aidy

    2010-01-01

    The usage of rubbers has always been so important, especially in automotive industries. Rubbers have a hyper elastic behaviour which is the ability to withstand very large strain without failure. The normal applications for rubbers are used for shock absorption, sound isolation and mounting. In this study, the predictions of fatigue life of an engine mount of rubber automotive components were presented. The finite element analysis was performed to predict the critical part and the strain output were incorporated into fatigue model for prediction. The predicted result shows agreement in term of failure location of rubber mount.

  17. Fatigue crack initiation and growth life prediction with statistical consideration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwon, J.D.; Choi, S.H.; Kwak, S.G.; Chun, K.O.

    1991-01-01

    Life prediction or residual life prediction of structures or machines is one of the most strongly world wide needed problems as requirement in the stage of slowly developing economy which comes after rapidly and highly developing stage. For the purpose of statistical life prediction, fatigue test was conducted under the 3 stress levels, and for each stress level, 20 specimens are used. The statistical properties of the crack growth parameter m and C in the fatigue crack growth law of da/dN = C(ΔK) m , and the relationship between m and C, and the statistical distribution pattern of fatigue crack initiation, growth and fracture lives can be obtained by experimental results

  18. Fracture Mechanics Prediction of Fatigue Life of Aluminum Highway Bridges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rom, Søren; Agerskov, Henning

    2015-01-01

    Fracture mechanics prediction of the fatigue life of aluminum highway bridges under random loading is studied. The fatigue life of welded joints has been determined from fracture mechanics analyses and the results obtained have been compared with results from experimental investigations. The fati......Fracture mechanics prediction of the fatigue life of aluminum highway bridges under random loading is studied. The fatigue life of welded joints has been determined from fracture mechanics analyses and the results obtained have been compared with results from experimental investigations...... against fatigue in aluminum bridges, may give results which are unconservative. Furthermore, it was in both investigations found that the validity of the results obtained from Miner's rule will depend on the distribution of the load history in tension and compression....

  19. A proposal of parameter to predict biaxial fatigue life for CF8M cast stainless steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Joong Cheul; Kwon, Jae Do

    2005-01-01

    Biaxial low cycle fatigue test was carried out to predict fatigue life under combined axial-torsional loading condition which is that of in-phase and out-of-phase for CF8M cast stainless steels. Fatemi Socie(FS) parameter which is based on critical plane approach is not only one of methods but also the best method that can predict fatigue life under biaxial loading condition. But the result showed that, biaxial fatigue life prediction by using FS parameter with several different parameters for the CF8M cast stainless steels is not conservative but best results. So in this present research, we proposed new fatigue life prediction parameter considering effective shear stress instead of FS parameter which considers the maximum normal stress acting on maximum shear strain and its effectiveness was verified

  20. Life in the Mosaic: Predicting changes in estuarine nursery production for juvenile fishes in response to sea-level rise with a landscape-based habitat production model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Identification of critical habitat in estuarine fish nursery areas is an important conservation and management objective, yet response to changes in critical habitat is both equally important and harder to predict. Habitat can be viewed as a mosaic of both temporally variable en...

  1. A study on the fatigue life prediction of tire belt-layers using probabilistic method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Dong Woo; Park, Jong Sang; Lee, Tae Won; Kim, Seong Rae; Sung, Ki Deug; Huh, Sun Chul

    2013-01-01

    Tire belt separation failure is occurred by internal cracks generated in *1 and *2 belt layers and by its growth. And belt failure seriously affects tire endurance. Therefore, to improve the tire endurance, it is necessary to analyze tire crack growth behavior and predict fatigue life. Generally, the prediction of tire endurance is performed by the experimental method using tire test machine. But it takes much cost and time to perform experiment. In this paper, to predict tire fatigue life, we applied deterministic fracture mechanics approach, based on finite element analysis. Also, probabilistic analysis method based on statistics using Monte Carlo simulation is presented. Above mentioned two methods include a global-local finite element analysis to provide the detail necessary to model explicitly an internal crack and calculate the J-integral for tire life prediction.

  2. Survey on damage mechanics models for fatigue life prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Silitonga, S.; Maljaars, J.; Soetens, F.; Snijder, H.H.

    2013-01-01

    Engineering methods to predict the fatigue life of structures have been available since the beginning of the 20th century. However, a practical problem arises from complex loading conditions and a significant concern is the accuracy of the methods under variable amplitude loading. This paper

  3. Reinforcement Corrosion: Numerical Simulation and Service Life Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michel, Alexander

    defects and b) define the end of service life once reinforcement corrosion is initiated neglecting corrosion processes during the propagation stage. The goal of this work was to develop a framework for the service life prediction of reinforced concrete covering initiation and propagation of chloride......Modelling of deterioration processes in concrete structures plays an increasing role in the design of reinforced concrete structures. Large sums are spent every year to ensure the durability of concrete structures, especially towards reinforcement corrosion. Improved durability provides increased...... structural reliability, economical improvements in form of less need for maintenance and repair as well as increased sustainability due to an increased energy and resource efficiency. Several service life prediction models dealing with reinforcement corrosion in concrete structurescan be found...

  4. Methodology for formulating predictions of stress corrosion cracking life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamauchi, Kiyoshi; Hattori, Shigeo; Shindo, Takenori; Kuniya, Jiro

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for formulating predictions to evaluate the stress corrosion cracking (SCC) potential of each light-water reactor component, where an index is introduced as a life index or F index. The index denotes the SCC time ratio of a given SCC system to be evaluated against a reference SCC system. The life index is expressed by the products of several subdivided life indexes, which correspond to each SCC influencing factor. Each subdivided life index is constructed as a function containing the influencing factor variable, obtained by analyzing experimental SCC life data. The methodology was termed the subdivided factor method. Application of the life index to SCC life data and field data showed that it was effective for evaluating the SCC potential, i.e. the SCC life. Accordingly, the proposed methodology can potentially describe a phenomenon expressed by a function which consists of the variables of several influencing factors whether there are formulae which unite as a physical model or not. ((orig.))

  5. Distributed learning: Developing a predictive model based on data from multiple hospitals without data leaving the hospital - A real life proof of concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jochems, Arthur; Deist, Timo M; van Soest, Johan; Eble, Michael; Bulens, Paul; Coucke, Philippe; Dries, Wim; Lambin, Philippe; Dekker, Andre

    2016-12-01

    One of the major hurdles in enabling personalized medicine is obtaining sufficient patient data to feed into predictive models. Combining data originating from multiple hospitals is difficult because of ethical, legal, political, and administrative barriers associated with data sharing. In order to avoid these issues, a distributed learning approach can be used. Distributed learning is defined as learning from data without the data leaving the hospital. Clinical data from 287 lung cancer patients, treated with curative intent with chemoradiation (CRT) or radiotherapy (RT) alone were collected from and stored in 5 different medical institutes (123 patients at MAASTRO (Netherlands, Dutch), 24 at Jessa (Belgium, Dutch), 34 at Liege (Belgium, Dutch and French), 48 at Aachen (Germany, German) and 58 at Eindhoven (Netherlands, Dutch)). A Bayesian network model is adapted for distributed learning (watch the animation: http://youtu.be/nQpqMIuHyOk). The model predicts dyspnea, which is a common side effect after radiotherapy treatment of lung cancer. We show that it is possible to use the distributed learning approach to train a Bayesian network model on patient data originating from multiple hospitals without these data leaving the individual hospital. The AUC of the model is 0.61 (95%CI, 0.51-0.70) on a 5-fold cross-validation and ranges from 0.59 to 0.71 on external validation sets. Distributed learning can allow the learning of predictive models on data originating from multiple hospitals while avoiding many of the data sharing barriers. Furthermore, the distributed learning approach can be used to extract and employ knowledge from routine patient data from multiple hospitals while being compliant to the various national and European privacy laws. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  6. General life satisfaction predicts dementia in community living older adults: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peitsch, Lorraine; Tyas, Suzanne L; Menec, Verena H; St John, Philip D

    2016-07-01

    Low life satisfaction predicts adverse outcomes, and may predict dementia. The objectives were: (1) to determine if life satisfaction predicts dementia over a five year period in those with normal cognition at baseline; and (2) to determine if different aspects of life satisfaction differentially predict dementia. Secondary analysis of an existing population-based cohort study with initial assessment in 1991 and follow-up five years later. Initially, 1,751 adults age 65+ living in the community were sampled from a representative sampling frame. Of these, 1,024 were alive and had complete data at time 2, of whom 96 were diagnosed with dementia. Life satisfaction was measured using the Terrible-Delightful scale, which measures overall life satisfaction on a 7-point scale, as well as various aspects of life satisfaction (e.g. friendships, finances, etc.) Dementia was diagnosed by clinical examination using DSM-IIIR criteria. Logistic regression models were constructed for the outcome of dementia at time 2, and adjusted for age, gender, education, and comorbidities. Overall life satisfaction predicted dementia five years later, at time 2. The unadjusted Odds Ratio (OR; 95% confidence interval) for dementia at time 2 was 0.72 (0.55, 0.95) per point. The adjusted OR for dementia was 0.70 (0.51, 0.96). No individual item on the life satisfaction scale predicted dementia. However, the competing risk of mortality was very high for some items. A global single-item measure of life satisfaction predicts dementia over a five year period in older adults without cognitive impairment.

  7. Shelf life prediction of apple brownies using accelerated method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulungan, M. H.; Sukmana, A. D.; Dewi, I. A.

    2018-03-01

    The aim of this research was to determine shelf life of apple brownies. Shelf life was determined with Accelerated Shelf Life Testing method and Arrhenius equation. Experiment was conducted at 25, 35, and 45°C for 30 days. Every five days, the sample was analysed for free fatty acid (FFA), water activity (Aw), and organoleptic acceptance (flavour, aroma, and texture). The shelf life of the apple brownies based on FFA were 110, 54, and 28 days at temperature of 25, 35, and 45°C, respectively.

  8. Health-related quality of life in patients with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS): a model-based study of predictive factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazarganipour, Fatemeh; Ziaei, Saeide; Montazeri, Ali; Foroozanfard, Fatemeh; Kazemnejad, Anoshirvan; Faghihzadeh, Soghrat

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the factors that contribute to health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is critical for developing the most appropriate interventions for improving or maintaining the HRQOL in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) patients. This study sought to determine the most significant predictors of the HRQOL in patients with PCOS. This was a cross-sectional study of 300 women with PCOS that was carried out in Kashan, Iran. A sample of women with PCOS was entered into the study and completed the following questionnaires: the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, the Body Image Concern Inventory (BICI), the Rosenberg's Self-Esteem Scale score, the modified polycystic ovary syndrome health-related quality of life questionnaire, the Female Sexual Function Index. Both direct and indirect relationships among clinical severity, psychological status, self-esteem, body image, and sexual function as independent predictors of HRQOL were examined using structural equation modeling (SEM) analysis. By using the SEM, we simultaneously test a number of possible hypotheses concerning the interrelations among the predictors of HRQOL in PCOS patients. In relation with severity of PCOS, reproductive history and menstrual status explained a high proportion of the variance of clinical variables (factor loading 0.37 and 0.34, respectively). The highest effect on HRQL was exerted by indirect effect of clinical factor (β = 0.90), self-esteem (β = 1.12), body image (β = 1.06), and sexual function (β = 0.26) that influenced negatively HRQOL. The infertility and menstrual domains were the most affected areas of HRQOL. In relation with sexual dysfunction, the most affected domains were desire and arousal. The highest effect of PCOS symptoms on HRQOL impairment among patients was exerted by self-esteem, body image, and sexual dysfunction. With regard to HRQOL in clinical routine, we conclude these mediating factors should be taken into consideration and adequately treated if

  9. Predicting Bullying: Exploring the Contributions of Childhood Negative Life Experiences in Predicting Adolescent Bullying Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connell, Nadine M; Morris, Robert G; Piquero, Alex R

    2016-07-01

    Although there has been much interest in research on aggression and in particular bullying, a relatively less charted area of research has centered on articulating a better understanding of the mechanisms and processes by which persons are at increased risk for bullying. Furthermore, those studies that have investigated the linkages between childhood experiences and bullying perpetration have been limited with respect to definitional and operational issues, reliance on cross-sectional data, and the lack of assessing competing explanations of bullying perpetration. Using five waves of data from a community-based longitudinal sample of children followed through age 18 (N = 763), the current study examines the extent to which childhood negative life events in a variety of domains predict adolescent bullying. Results show that early childhood experiences, particularly those within the family and school domains, may alter life trajectories and can act as predictors for later adolescent bullying, thereby underscoring the potential importance that relatively minor experiences can have over the long term. Implications for future research based on these analyses are examined. © The Author(s) 2015.

  10. Life Prediction Issues in Thermal/Environmental Barrier Coatings in Ceramic Matrix Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Ashwin R.; Brewer, David N.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.

    2001-01-01

    Issues and design requirements for the environmental barrier coating (EBC)/thermal barrier coating (TBC) life that are general and those specific to the NASA Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) development program have been described. The current state and trend of the research, methods in vogue related to the failure analysis, and long-term behavior and life prediction of EBCITBC systems are reported. Also, the perceived failure mechanisms, variables, and related uncertainties governing the EBCITBC system life are summarized. A combined heat transfer and structural analysis approach based on the oxidation kinetics using the Arrhenius theory is proposed to develop a life prediction model for the EBC/TBC systems. Stochastic process-based reliability approach that includes the physical variables such as gas pressure, temperature, velocity, moisture content, crack density, oxygen content, etc., is suggested. Benefits of the reliability-based approach are also discussed in the report.

  11. Life prediction of steam generator tubing due to stress corrosion crack using Monte Carlo Simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Jun; Liu Fei; Cheng Guangxu; Zhang Zaoxiao

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → A life prediction model for SG tubing was proposed. → The initial crack length for SCC was determined. → Two failure modes called rupture mode and leak mode were considered. → A probabilistic life prediction code based on Monte Carlo method was developed. - Abstract: The failure of steam generator tubing is one of the main accidents that seriously affects the availability and safety of a nuclear power plant. In order to estimate the probability of the failure, a probabilistic model was established to predict the whole life-span and residual life of steam generator (SG) tubing. The failure investigated was stress corrosion cracking (SCC) after the generation of one through-wall axial crack. Two failure modes called rupture mode and leak mode based on probabilistic fracture mechanics were considered in this proposed model. It took into account the variance in tube geometry and material properties, and the variance in residual stresses and operating conditions, all of which govern the propagations of cracks. The proposed model was numerically calculated by using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The plugging criteria were first verified and then the whole life-span and residual life of the SG tubing were obtained. Finally, important sensitivity analysis was also carried out to identify the most important parameters affecting the life of SG tubing. The results will be useful in developing optimum strategies for life-cycle management of the feedwater system in nuclear power plants.

  12. Towards a Universal Biology: Is the Origin and Evolution of Life Predictable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothschild, Lynn J.

    2017-01-01

    The origin and evolution of life seems an unpredictable oddity, based on the quirks of contingency. Celebrated by the late Stephen Jay Gould in several books, "evolution by contingency" has all the adventure of a thriller, but lacks the predictive power of the physical sciences. Not necessarily so, replied Simon Conway Morris, for convergence reassures us that certain evolutionary responses are replicable. The outcome of this debate is critical to Astrobiology. How can we understand where we came from on Earth without prophesy? Further, we cannot design a rational strategy for the search for life elsewhere - or to understand what the future will hold for life on Earth and beyond - without extrapolating from pre-biotic chemistry and evolution. There are several indirect approaches to understanding, and thus describing, what life must be. These include philosophical approaches to defining life (is there even a satisfactory definition of life?), using what we know of physics, chemistry and life to imagine alternate scenarios, using different approaches that life takes as pseudoreplicates (e.g., ribosomal vs non-ribosomal protein synthesis), and experimental approaches to understand the art of the possible. Given that: (1) Life is a process based on physical components rather than simply an object; (2). Life is likely based on organic carbon and needs a solvent for chemistry, most likely water, and (3) Looking for convergence in terrestrial evolution we can predict certain tendencies, if not quite "laws", that provide predictive power. Biological history must obey the laws of physics and chemistry, the principles of natural selection, the constraints of an evolutionary past, genetics, and developmental biology. This amalgam creates a surprising amount of predictive power in the broad outline. Critical is the apparent prevalence of organic chemistry, and uniformity in the universe of the laws of chemistry and physics. Instructive is the widespread occurrence of

  13. Life prediction and mechanical reliability of NT551 silicon nitride

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Mark Jay

    The inert strength and fatigue performance of a diesel engine exhaust valve made from silicon nitride (Si3N4) ceramic were assessed. The Si3N4 characterized in this study was manufactured by Saint Gobain/Norton Industrial Ceramics and was designated as NT551. The evaluation was made utilizing a probabilistic life prediction algorithm that combined censored test specimen strength data with a Weibull distribution function and the stress field of the ceramic valve obtained from finite element analysis. The major assumptions of the life prediction algorithm are that the bulk ceramic material is isotropic and homogeneous and that the strength-limiting flaws are uniformly distributed. The results from mechanical testing indicated that NT551 was not a homogeneous ceramic and that its strength were functions of temperature, loading rate, and machining orientation. Fractographic analysis identified four different failure modes; 2 were identified as inhomogeneities that were located throughout the bulk of NT551 and were due to processing operations. The fractographic analysis concluded that the strength degradation of NT551 observed from the temperature and loading rate test parameters was due to a change of state that occurred in its secondary phase. Pristine and engine-tested valves made from NT551 were loaded to failure and the inert strengths were obtained. Fractographic analysis of the valves identified the same four failure mechanisms as found with the test specimens. The fatigue performance and the inert strength of the Si3N 4 valves were assessed from censored and uncensored test specimen strength data, respectively. The inert strength failure probability predictions were compared to the inert strength of the Si3N4 valves. The inert strength failure probability predictions were more conservative than the strength of the valves. The lack of correlation between predicted and actual valve strength was due to the nonuniform distribution of inhomogeneities present in NT

  14. Life prediction methods for the combined creep-fatigue endurance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wareing, J.; Lloyd, G.J.

    1980-09-01

    The basis and current status of development of the various approaches to the prediction of the combined creep-fatigue endurance are reviewed. It is concluded that an inadequate materials data base makes it difficult to draw sensible conclusions about the prediction capabilities of each of the available methods. Correlation with data for stainless steel 304 and 316 is presented. (U.K.)

  15. Shelf life prediction of radiation sterilized polymeric materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandford, Craig; Woo, Lecon

    1988-01-01

    The functional properties of many polymers employed in medical disposables are unaffected by sterilizing doses of ionizing radiation. However, some materials (PVC, polypropylene, cellulosics, etc.) undergo undesirable changes which continue to occur for the shelf life of the product. In many cases, conventional accelerated aging techniques do not accurately predict the real time properties of the materials. As real time aging is not generally practical, it has become necessary to develop accelerated aging techniques which can predict the functional properties of a material for the shelf life of the product. This presentation will address issues involved in developing these tests. Real time physical property data is compared to data generated by various acceleration methods. (author)

  16. DNA Sequencing and Predictions of the Cosmic Theory of Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickramasinghe, N. Chandra

    The theory of cometary panspermia, developed by the late Sir Fred Hoyle and the present author argues that life originated cosmically as a unique event in one of a great multitude of comets or planetary bodies in the Universe. Life on Earth did not originate here but was introduced by impacting comets, and its further evolution was driven by the subsequent acquisition of cosmically derived genes. Explicit predictions of this theory published in 1979-1981, stating how the acquisition of new genes drives evolution, are compared with recent developments in relation to horizontal gene transfer, and the role of retroviruses in evolution. Precisely-stated predictions of the theory of cometary panspermia are shown to have been verified.

  17. Service life prediction and fibre reinforced cementitious composites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stoklund Larsen, E.

    The present Ph.D.thesis addresses the service life concept on the fibre reinforced cementitious composites. The advantages and problems of adding fibre to a cementitious matrix and the influence on service life are described. In SBI Report 221, Service life prediction and cementitious somposites......, the factors affecting the pure cementitious composite are described. Different sizes and types of fibre reinforced crmentitious composites have been chosen to illustrate different ageing and deterioration mechanisms. Some ageing mechanisms can be accelerated and others cannot which is demonstrated in a test...... programme. Moisture, micro structural and mechanical properties were measured before, during and after ageing, with the purpose of giving a detailed "picture" of the materials during ageing....

  18. One- and two-stage Arrhenius models for pharmaceutical shelf life prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Zhewen; Zhang, Lanju

    2015-01-01

    One of the most challenging aspects of the pharmaceutical development is the demonstration and estimation of chemical stability. It is imperative that pharmaceutical products be stable for two or more years. Long-term stability studies are required to support such shelf life claim at registration. However, during drug development to facilitate formulation and dosage form selection, an accelerated stability study with stressed storage condition is preferred to quickly obtain a good prediction of shelf life under ambient storage conditions. Such a prediction typically uses Arrhenius equation that describes relationship between degradation rate and temperature (and humidity). Existing methods usually rely on the assumption of normality of the errors. In addition, shelf life projection is usually based on confidence band of a regression line. However, the coverage probability of a method is often overlooked or under-reported. In this paper, we introduce two nonparametric bootstrap procedures for shelf life estimation based on accelerated stability testing, and compare them with a one-stage nonlinear Arrhenius prediction model. Our simulation results demonstrate that one-stage nonlinear Arrhenius method has significant lower coverage than nominal levels. Our bootstrap method gave better coverage and led to a shelf life prediction closer to that based on long-term stability data.

  19. Data-Based Predictive Control with Multirate Prediction Step

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Jonathan S.

    2010-01-01

    Data-based predictive control is an emerging control method that stems from Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC computes current control action based on a prediction of the system output a number of time steps into the future and is generally derived from a known model of the system. Data-based predictive control has the advantage of deriving predictive models and controller gains from input-output data. Thus, a controller can be designed from the outputs of complex simulation code or a physical system where no explicit model exists. If the output data happens to be corrupted by periodic disturbances, the designed controller will also have the built-in ability to reject these disturbances without the need to know them. When data-based predictive control is implemented online, it becomes a version of adaptive control. One challenge of MPC is computational requirements increasing with prediction horizon length. This paper develops a closed-loop dynamic output feedback controller that minimizes a multi-step-ahead receding-horizon cost function with multirate prediction step. One result is a reduced influence of prediction horizon and the number of system outputs on the computational requirements of the controller. Another result is an emphasis on portions of the prediction window that are sampled more frequently. A third result is the ability to include more outputs in the feedback path than in the cost function.

  20. Structure life prediction at high temperature: present and future capabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaboche, J.L.

    1987-01-01

    The life prediction techniques for high temperature conditions include several aspects which are considered successively in this article. Crack initiation criteria themselves, defined for the isolated volume element (the tension-compression specimen for example), including parametric relationships and continuous damage approaches and calculation of local stress and strain fields in the structure and their evolution under cyclic plasticity, which poses several difficult problems to obtain stabilized cyclic solutions are examined. The use of crack initiation criteria or damage rules from the result of the cyclic inelastic analysis and the prediction of crack growth in the structure are considered. Different levels are considered for the predictive tools: the classical approach, future methods presently under development and intermediate rules, which are already in use. Several examples are given on materials and components used either in the nuclear industry or in gas turbine engines. (author)

  1. Shelf life prediction of canned fried-rice using accelerated shelf life testing (ASLT) arrhenius method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurniadi, M.; Bintang, R.; Kusumaningrum, A.; Nursiwi, A.; Nurhikmat, A.; Susanto, A.; Angwar, M.; Triwiyono; Frediansyah, A.

    2017-12-01

    Research on shelf-life prediction of canned fried rice using Accelerated Shelf-life Test (ASLT) of Arrhenius model has been conducted. The aim of this research to predict shelf life of canned-fried rice products. Lethality value of 121°C for 15 and 20 minutes and Total Plate count methods are used to determine time and temperatures of sterilization process.Various storage temperatures of ASLT Arrhenius method were 35, 45 and 55°C during 35days. Rancidity is one of the derivation quality of canned fried rice. In this research, sample of canned fried rice is tested using rancidity value (TBA). TBA value was used as parameter which be measured once a week periodically. The use of can for fried rice without any chemical preservative is one of the advantage of the product, additionaly the use of physicalproperties such as temperature and pressure during its process can extend the shelf life and reduce the microbial contamination. The same research has never done before for fried rice as ready to eat meal. The result showed that the optimum conditions of sterilization process were 121°C,15 minutes with total plate count number of 9,3 × 101 CFU/ml. Lethality value of canned fried rice at 121°C,15 minutes was 3.63 minutes. The calculated Shelf-life of canned fried rice using Accelerated Shelf-life Test (ASLT) of Arrhenius method was 10.3 months.

  2. Life prediction of advanced materials for gas turbine application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zamrik, S.Y.; Ray, A.; Koss, D.A. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

    1995-10-01

    Most of the studies on the low cycle fatigue life prediction have been reported under isothermal conditions where the deformation of the material is strain dependent. In the development of gas turbines, components such as blades and vanes are exposed to temperature variations in addition to strain cycling. As a result, the deformation process becomes temperature and strain dependent. Therefore, the life of the component becomes sensitive to temperature-strain cycling which produces a process known as {open_quotes}thermomechanical fatigue, or TMF{close_quotes}. The TMF fatigue failure phenomenon has been modeled using conventional fatigue life prediction methods, which are not sufficiently accurate to quantitatively establish an allowable design procedure. To add to the complexity of TMF life prediction, blade and vane substrates are normally coated with aluminide, overlay or thermal barrier type coatings (TBC) where the durability of the component is dominated by the coating/substrate constitutive response and by the fatigue behavior of the coating. A number of issues arise from TMF depending on the type of temperature/strain phase cycle: (1) time-dependent inelastic behavior can significantly affect the stress response. For example, creep relaxation during a tensile or compressive loading at elevated temperatures leads to a progressive increase in the mean stress level under cyclic loading. (2) the mismatch in elastic and thermal expansion properties between the coating and the substrate can lead to significant deviations in the coating stress levels due to changes in the elastic modulii. (3) the {open_quotes}dry{close_quotes} corrosion resistance coatings applied to the substrate may act as primary crack initiation sites. Crack initiation in the coating is a function of the coating composition, its mechanical properties, creep relaxation behavior, thermal strain range and the strain/temperature phase relationship.

  3. How long will my mouse live? Machine learning approaches for prediction of mouse life span.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swindell, William R; Harper, James M; Miller, Richard A

    2008-09-01

    Prediction of individual life span based on characteristics evaluated at middle-age represents a challenging objective for aging research. In this study, we used machine learning algorithms to construct models that predict life span in a stock of genetically heterogeneous mice. Life-span prediction accuracy of 22 algorithms was evaluated using a cross-validation approach, in which models were trained and tested with distinct subsets of data. Using a combination of body weight and T-cell subset measures evaluated before 2 years of age, we show that the life-span quartile to which an individual mouse belongs can be predicted with an accuracy of 35.3% (+/-0.10%). This result provides a new benchmark for the development of life-span-predictive models, but improvement can be expected through identification of new predictor variables and development of computational approaches. Future work in this direction can provide tools for aging research and will shed light on associations between phenotypic traits and longevity.

  4. A computational approach for thermomechanical fatigue life prediction of dissimilarly welded superheater tubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krishnasamy, Ram-Kumar; Seifert, Thomas; Siegele, Dieter [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Werkstoffmechanik (IWM), Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany)

    2010-07-01

    In this paper a computational approach for fatigue life prediction of dissimilarly welded superheater tubes is presented and applied to a dissimilar weld between tubes made of the nickel base alloy Alloy617 tube and the 12% chromium steel VM12. The approach comprises the calculation of the residual stresses in the welded tubes with a multi-pass dissimilar welding simulation, the relaxation of the residual stresses in a post weld heat treatment (PWHT) simulation and the fatigue life prediction using the remaining residual stresses as initial condition. A cyclic fiscoplasticity model is used to calculate the transient stresses and strains under thermocyclic service loadings. The fatigue life is predicted with a damage parameter which is based on fracture mechanics. The adjustable parameters of the model are determined based on LCF and TMF experiments. The simulations show, that the residual stresses that remain after PWHT further relax in the first loading cycles. The predicted fatigue lives depend on the residual stresses and, thus, on the choice of the loading cycle in which the damage parameter is evaluated. It the first loading cycle, where residual stresses are still present, is considered, lower fatigue lives are predicted compared to predictions considering loading cycles with relaxed residual stresses. (orig.)

  5. Thermo-mechanical fatigue behaviour and life prediction of C-1023 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    Mechanical strain-cycles to failure curves for 890-1055 ºC temperature range. ... could be ascribed to creep strain accumulation at high temperatures coinciding ... It is common in engineering applications to rely on life prediction models based ...

  6. Fatigue life prediction of rotor blade composites: Validation of constant amplitude formulations with variable amplitude experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Westphal, T; Nijssen, R P L

    2014-01-01

    The effect of Constant Life Diagram (CLD) formulation on the fatigue life prediction under variable amplitude (VA) loading was investigated based on variable amplitude tests using three different load spectra representative for wind turbine loading. Next to the Wisper and WisperX spectra, the recently developed NewWisper2 spectrum was used. Based on these variable amplitude fatigue results the prediction accuracy of 4 CLD formulations is investigated. In the study a piecewise linear CLD based on the S-N curves for 9 load ratios compares favourably in terms of prediction accuracy and conservativeness. For the specific laminate used in this study Boerstra's Multislope model provides a good alternative at reduced test effort

  7. Fatigue life prediction of rotor blade composites: Validation of constant amplitude formulations with variable amplitude experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westphal, T.; Nijssen, R. P. L.

    2014-12-01

    The effect of Constant Life Diagram (CLD) formulation on the fatigue life prediction under variable amplitude (VA) loading was investigated based on variable amplitude tests using three different load spectra representative for wind turbine loading. Next to the Wisper and WisperX spectra, the recently developed NewWisper2 spectrum was used. Based on these variable amplitude fatigue results the prediction accuracy of 4 CLD formulations is investigated. In the study a piecewise linear CLD based on the S-N curves for 9 load ratios compares favourably in terms of prediction accuracy and conservativeness. For the specific laminate used in this study Boerstra's Multislope model provides a good alternative at reduced test effort.

  8. Half-life predictions for decay modes of superheavy nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duarte, S.B.; Tavares, O.A.P.; Goncalves, M.; Rodriguez, O.; Guzman, F.; Barbosa, T.N.; Garcia, F.; Dimarco, A.

    2004-09-01

    We applied the Effective Liquid Drop Model (ELDM) to predict the alpha-decay, cluster emission and cold fission half-life-values of nuclei in the region of Superheavy Elements (SHE). The present calculations have been made in the region of the ZN-plane defined by 155 <=N <=220 and 110<=Z<=135. Shell effects are included via the Q-value of the corresponding decay case. We report the results of a systematic calculation of the half-life for the three nuclear decay modes in a region of the ZN-plane where superheavy elements are expected to be found. Results have shown that, among the decay modes investigated here, the alpha decay is the dominant one. i.e, the decay mode of smallest half-lives. Half-life predictions for alpha decay, cluster emission and cold fission for the isotopic family of the most recent SHE detected of Z=115 and for the isotopic family of the already consolidated SHE of Z=111 are presented. (author)

  9. Ratcheting and low cycle fatigue behavior of SA333 steel and their life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paul, Surajit Kumar; Sivaprasad, S.; Dhar, S.; Tarafder, S.

    2010-01-01

    Ratcheting and low cycle fatigue (LCF) experiments have been conducted at 25 o C temperature in laboratory environment under different loading conditions. SA333 steel exhibits cyclic hardening throughout its life during LCF. It is found that ratcheting strain increases with both increasing mean stress and stress amplitude. It has also been noticed that plastic strain amplitude and plastic strain energy decrease with increase in mean stress at constant stress amplitude. Ratcheting and LCF life in the range of 10 2 -10 5 cycles have been predicted with the help of a mean stress-based fatigue lifing equation.

  10. Personality predicts recurrence of late-life depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steunenberg, Bas; Beekman, Aartjan T F; Deeg, Dorly J H; Kerkhof, Ad J F M

    2010-06-01

    To examine the association of personality with recurrence of depression in later life. A subsample of 91 subjects from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA; baseline sample size n=3107; aged > or = 55 years) depressed at baseline, who had recovered in the course of three years (first follow-up cycle) was identified. 41 (45%) respondents experienced a recurrence during the subsequent six years. The influences of personality and late life stress (demographic factors, health and social factors) on recurrence were investigated prospectively. Recurrence of depression was associated with a high level of neuroticism and low level of mastery, residual depressive symptoms at time of recovery, female gender, pain complaints and feelings of loneliness. In multivariable analysis entering all predictors significant in single variable analysis, residual depressive symptoms and lack of mastery remained significantly associated with recurrence. In predicting the recurrence of depression in later life, the direct effects of personality remain important and comparable in strength with other late life stressors related to recurrence. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Using ABAQUS Scripting Interface for Materials Evaluation and Life Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Lynn M.; Arnold, Steven M.; Baranski, Andrzej

    2006-01-01

    An ABAQUS script has been written to aid in the evaluation of the mechanical behavior of viscoplastic materials. The purposes of the script are to: handle complex load histories; control load/displacement with alternate stopping criteria; predict failure and life; and verify constitutive models. Material models from the ABAQUS library may be used or the UMAT routine may specify mechanical behavior. User subroutines implemented include: UMAT for the constitutive model; UEXTERNALDB for file manipulation; DISP for boundary conditions; and URDFIL for results processing. Examples presented include load, strain and displacement control tests on a single element model. The tests are creep with a life limiting strain criterion, strain control with a stress limiting cycle and a complex interrupted cyclic relaxation test. The techniques implemented in this paper enable complex load conditions to be solved efficiently with ABAQUS.

  12. The construction of life prediction models for the design of Stirling engine heater components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrovich, A.; Bright, A.; Cronin, M.; Arnold, S.

    1983-01-01

    The service life of Stirling-engine heater structures of Fe-based high-temperature alloys is predicted using a numerical model based on a linear-damage approach and published test data (engine test data for a Co-based alloy and tensile-test results for both the Co-based and the Fe-based alloys). The operating principle of the automotive Stirling engine is reviewed; the economic and technical factors affecting the choice of heater material are surveyed; the test results are summarized in tables and graphs; the engine environment and automotive duty cycle are characterized; and the modeling procedure is explained. It is found that the statistical scatter of the fatigue properties of the heater components needs to be reduced (by decreasing the porosity of the cast material or employing wrought material in fatigue-prone locations) before the accuracy of life predictions can be improved.

  13. USING CONDITION MONITORING TO PREDICT REMAINING LIFE OF ELECTRIC CABLES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LOFARO, R.; SOO, P.; VILLARAN, M.; GROVE, E.

    2001-01-01

    Electric cables are passive components used extensively throughout nuclear power stations to perform numerous safety and non-safety functions. It is known that the polymers commonly used to insulate the conductors on these cables can degrade with time; the rate of degradation being dependent on the severity of the conditions in which the cables operate. Cables do not receive routine maintenance and, since it can be very costly, they are not replaced on a regular basis. Therefore, to ensure their continued functional performance, it would be beneficial if condition monitoring techniques could be used to estimate the remaining useful life of these components. A great deal of research has been performed on various condition monitoring techniques for use on electric cables. In a research program sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, several promising techniques were evaluated and found to provide trendable information on the condition of low-voltage electric cables. These techniques may be useful for predicting remaining life if well defined limiting values for the aging properties being measured can be determined. However, each technique has advantages and limitations that must be addressed in order to use it effectively, and the necessary limiting values are not always easy to obtain. This paper discusses how condition monitoring measurements can be used to predict the remaining useful life of electric cables. The attributes of an appropriate condition monitoring technique are presented, and the process to be used in estimating the remaining useful life of a cable is discussed along with the difficulties that must be addressed

  14. Understanding, Predicting, and Preventing Life Changing and Life Threatening Health Changes among Aging Veterans and Civilians with Spinal Cord Injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-16-1-0629 TITLE: Understanding, Predicting, and Preventing Life -Changing and Life -Threatening Health Changes among Aging...Annual 3. DATES COVERED 30 Sep 2016 - 29 Sep 2017 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Understanding, Predicting, and Preventing Life -Changing and Life ... hope of preventing them. Our purpose is to better understand the how and why of the development of negative health spirals and how they may best be

  15. Fatigue life prediction of autofrettage tubes using actual material behaviour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jahed, Hamid; Farshi, Behrooz; Hosseini, Mohammad

    2006-01-01

    There is a profound Bauschinger effect in the behaviour of high-strength steels used in autofrettaged tubes. This has led to development of methods capable of considering experimentally obtained (actual) material behaviour in residual stress calculations. The extension of these methods to life calculations is presented here. To estimate the life of autofrettaged tubes with a longitudinal surface crack emanating from the bore more accurately, instead of using idealized models, the experimental loading-unloading stress-strain behaviour is employed. The resulting stresses are then used to calculate stress intensity factors by the weight function method as input to fatigue life determination. Fatigue lives obtained using the actual material behaviour are then compared with the results of frequently used ideal models including those considering Bauschinger effect factors and strain hardening in unloading. Using standard fatigue crack growth relationships, life of the vessel is then calculated based on recommended initial and final crack length. It is shown that the life gain due to autofrettage above 70% overstrain is considerable

  16. WHAT PREDICTS A SUCCESSFUL LIFE? A LIFE-COURSE MODEL OF WELL-BEING*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layard, Richard; Clark, Andrew E.; Cornaglia, Francesca; Powdthavee, Nattavudh; Vernoit, James

    2014-01-01

    Policy-makers who care about well-being need a recursive model of how adult life-satisfaction is predicted by childhood influences, acting both directly and (indirectly) through adult circumstances. We estimate such a model using the British Cohort Study (1970). We show that the most powerful childhood predictor of adult life-satisfaction is the child’s emotional health, followed by the child’s conduct. The least powerful predictor is the child’s intellectual development. This may have implications for educational policy. Among adult circumstances, family income accounts for only 0.5% of the variance of life-satisfaction. Mental and physical health are much more important. PMID:25422527

  17. Fatigue life prediction of fiber reinforced concrete under flexural load

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Jun; Stang, Henrik; Li, Victor

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents a semi-analytical method to predict fatigue behavior in flexure of fiber reinforced concrete (FRC) based on the equilibrium of force in the critical cracked section. The model relies on the cyclic bridging law, the so-called stress-crack width relationship under cyclic tensile...

  18. Predicting Liaison: an Example-Based Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Greefhorst, A.P.M.; Bosch, A.P.J. van den

    2016-01-01

    Predicting liaison in French is a non-trivial problem to model. We compare a memory-based machine-learning algorithm with a rule-based baseline. The memory-based learner is trained to predict whether liaison occurs between two words on the basis of lexical, orthographic, morphosyntactic, and

  19. Prediction of drug terminal half-life and terminal volume of distribution after intravenous dosing based on drug clearance, steady-state volume of distribution, and physiological parameters of the body.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berezhkovskiy, Leonid M

    2013-02-01

    The steady state, V(ss), terminal volume of distribution, V(β), and the terminal half-life, t(1/2), are commonly obtained from the drug plasma concentration-time profile, C(p)(t), following intravenous dosing. Unlike V(ss) that can be calculated based on the physicochemical properties of drugs considering the equilibrium partitioning between plasma and organ tissues, t(1/2) and V(β) cannot be calculated that way because they depend on the rates of drug transfer between blood and tissues. Considering the physiological pharmacokinetic model pertinent to the terminal phase of drug elimination, a novel equation that calculates t(1/2) (and consequently V(β)) was derived. It turns out that V(ss), the total body clearance, Cl, equilibrium blood-plasma concentration ratio, r; and the physiological parameters of the body such as cardiac output, and blood and tissue volumes are sufficient for determination of terminal kinetics. Calculation of t(1/2) by the obtained equation appears to be in good agreement with the experimentally observed vales of this parameter in pharmacokinetic studies in rat, monkey, dog, and human. The equation for the determination of the pre-exponent of the terminal phase of C(p)(t) is also found. The obtained equation allows to predict t(1/2) in human assuming that V(ss) and Cl were either obtained by allometric scaling or, respectively, calculated in silico or based on in vitro drug stability measurements. For compounds that have high clearance, the derived equation may be applied to calculate r just using the routine data on Cl, V(ss), and t(1/2), rather than doing the in vitro assay to measure this parameter. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. Stress analysis and life prediction of gas turbine blade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiung, H. C.; Dunn, A. J.; Woodling, D. R.; Loh, D. L.

    1988-01-01

    A stress analysis procedure is presented for a redesign of the Space Shuttle Main Engine high pressure fuel turbopump turbine blades. The analysis consists of the one-dimensional scoping analysis to support the design layout and the follow-on three-dimensional finite element analysis to confirm the blade design at operating loading conditions. Blade life is evaluated based on high-cycle fatigue and low-cycle fatigue.

  1. Glatiramer acetate treatment persistence - but not adherence - in multiple sclerosis patients is predicted by health-related quality of life and self-efficacy: a prospective web-based patient-centred study (CAIR study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jongen, Peter Joseph; Lemmens, Wim A; Hoogervorst, Erwin L; Donders, Rogier

    2017-03-14

    In patients with relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) the persistence of and adherence to disease modifying drug (DMD) treatment is inadequate. To take individualised measures there is a need to identify patients with a high risk of non-persistence or non-adherence. As patient-related factors have a major influence on persistence and adherence, we investigated whether health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and self-efficacy could predict persistence or adherence. In a prospective web-based patient-centred study in 203 RRMS patients, starting treatment with glatiramer acatete (GA) 20 mg subcutaneously daily, we measured physical and mental HRQoL (Multiple Sclerosis Quality of Life-54 questionnaire), functional and control self-efficacy (Multiple Sclerosis Self-Efficacy Scale), the 12-month persistence rate and, in persistent patients, the percentage of missed doses. HRQoL and self-efficacy were compared between persistent and non-persistent patients, and between adherent and non-adherent patients. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess whether persistence and adherence were explained by HRQoL and self-efficacy. Persistent patients had higher baseline physical (mean 58.1 [standard deviation, SD] 16.9) and mental HRQoL (63.8 [16.8]) than non-persistent patients (49.5 [17.6]; 55.9 [20.4]) (P = 0.001; P = 0.003) with no differences between adherent and non-adherent patients (P = 0.46; P = 0.54). Likewise, in persistent patients function (752 [156]) and control self-efficacy (568 [178]) were higher than in non-persistent patients (689 [173]; 491 [192]) (P = 0.009; P = 0.004), but not in adherent vs. non-adherent patients (P = 0.26; P = 0.82). Logistic regression modelling identified physical HRQoL and control self-efficacy as factors that explained persistence. Based on predicted scores from the model, patients were classified into quartiles and the percentage of non-persistent patients per quartile was calculated: non

  2. Teachers' assessments of children aged eight predict life satisfaction in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honkanen, Meri; Meri, Honkanen; Hurtig, Tuula; Tuula, Hurtig; Taanila, Anja; Anja, Taanila; Moilanen, Irma; Irma, Moilanen; Koponen, Hannu; Hannu, Koponen; Mäki, Pirjo; Pirjo, Mäki; Veijola, Juha; Juha, Veijola; Puustjärvi, Anita; Anita, Puustjärvi; Ebeling, Hanna; Hanna, Ebeling; Koivumaa-Honkanen, Heli; Heli, Koivumaa-Honkanen

    2011-09-01

    The objective was to investigate how teachers' assessments of children predict life satisfaction in adolescence. This is a prospective cohort study on the population-based Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986 (n = 8,959). Information was gathered from parents, teachers and adolescents using questionnaires at the age of 7, 8 and 15. Response rates were 80-90%. Emotional and behavioural problems were assessed with Rutter Children's Behavioural Questionnaires for teachers (RB2) and parents (RA2) during the first grade at age 8. At adolescence, self-reported life satisfaction was measured with a question including five response alternatives. According to teachers' assessments, 13.9% of the children had high emotional or behavioural problems (RB2 ≥9). These assessments predicted life dissatisfaction in adolescence (OR(crude) = 1.77; 95% CI 1.43-2.20) in several models including also health behaviour and use of psychotropic medicine. However, introducing all the significant variables in the same model, RB2 lost its significance (OR = 1.28; 0.96-1.70), but good school achievement assessed by teachers was still a significant predictor. Life satisfaction in adolescence was associated with a variety of favourable concurrent factors. In conclusion teachers' assessments of children during the first school year predicted life satisfaction in adolescence. In mental health promotion, teachers' early assessments should be utilized for the benefit of children.

  3. Fatigue properties of JIS H3300 C1220 copper for strain life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harun, Muhammad Faiz; Mohammad, Roslina

    2018-05-01

    The existing methods for estimating strain life parameters are dependent on the material's monotonic tensile properties. However, a few of these methods yield quite complicated expressions for calculating fatigue parameters, and are specific to certain groups of materials only. The Universal Slopes method, Modified Universal Slopes method, Uniform Material Law, the Hardness method, and Medians method are a few existing methods for predicting strain-life fatigue based on monotonic tensile material properties and hardness of material. In the present study, nine methods for estimating fatigue life and properties are applied on JIS H3300 C1220 copper to determine the best methods for strain life estimation of this ductile material. Experimental strain-life curves are compared to estimations obtained using each method. Muralidharan-Manson's Modified Universal Slopes method and Bäumel-Seeger's method for unalloyed and low-alloy steels are found to yield batter accuracy in estimating fatigue life with a deviation of less than 25%. However, the prediction of both methods only yield much better accuracy for a cycle of less than 1000 or for strain amplitudes of more than 1% and less than 6%. Manson's Original Universal Slopes method and Ong's Modified Four-Point Correlation method are found to predict the strain-life fatigue of copper with better accuracy for a high number of cycles of strain amplitudes of less than 1%. The differences between mechanical behavior during monotonic and cyclic loading and the complexity in deciding the coefficient in an equation are probably the reason for the lack of a reliable method for estimating fatigue behavior using the monotonic properties of a group of materials. It is therefore suggested that a differential approach and new expressions be developed to estimate the strain-life fatigue parameters for ductile materials such as copper.

  4. Life prediction methodology for thermal-mechanical fatigue and elevated temperature creep design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annigeri, Ravindra

    Nickel-based superalloys are used for hot section components of gas turbine engines. Life prediction techniques are necessary to assess service damage in superalloy components resulting from thermal-mechanical fatigue (TMF) and elevated temperature creep. A new TMF life model based on continuum damage mechanics has been developed and applied to IN 738 LC substrate material with and without coating. The model also characterizes TMF failure in bulk NiCoCrAlY overlay and NiAl aluminide coatings. The inputs to the TMF life model are mechanical strain range, hold time, peak cycle temperatures and maximum stress measured from the stabilized or mid-life hysteresis loops. A viscoplastic model is used to predict the stress-strain hysteresis loops. A flow rule used in the viscoplastic model characterizes the inelastic strain rate as a function of the applied stress and a set of three internal stress variables known as back stress, drag stress and limit stress. Test results show that the viscoplastic model can reasonably predict time-dependent stress-strain response of the coated material and stress relaxation during hold times. In addition to the TMF life prediction methodology, a model has been developed to characterize the uniaxial and multiaxial creep behavior. An effective stress defined as the applied stress minus the back stress is used to characterize the creep recovery and primary creep behavior. The back stress has terms representing strain hardening, dynamic recovery and thermal recovery. Whenever the back stress is greater than the applied stress, the model predicts a negative creep rate observed during multiple stress and multiple temperature cyclic tests. The model also predicted the rupture time and the remaining life that are important for life assessment. The model has been applied to IN 738 LC, Mar-M247, bulk NiCoCrAlY overlay coating and 316 austenitic stainless steel. The proposed model predicts creep response with a reasonable accuracy for wide range of

  5. Life Prediction of Spent Fuel Storage Canister Material

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ballinger, Ronald

    2018-04-16

    The original purpose of this project was to develop a probabilistic model for SCC-induced failure of spent fuel storage canisters, exposed to a salt-air environment in the temperature range 30-70°C for periods up to and exceeding 100 years. The nature of this degradation process, which involves multiple degradation mechanisms, combined with variable and uncertain environmental conditions dictates a probabilistic approach to life prediction. A final report for the original portion of the project was submitted earlier. However, residual stress measurements for as-welded and repair welds could not be performed within the original time of the project. As a result of this, a no-cost extension was granted in order to complete these tests. In this report, we report on the results of residual stress measurements.

  6. NULIFE - the European NoE 'Nuclear Plant Life Prediction'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cojan, Mihail

    2008-01-01

    INR Pitesti become on the 29th September 2006 a partner in the European Network of Excellence Nuclear Plant Life Prediction (NULIFE) coordinated by Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT). The EU's Network of Excellence NULIFE has been launched under the EURATOM FP6 Program with a clear focus on integrating safety-oriented research on materials, structures and systems and exploiting the results of this integration through the production of harmonized lifetime assessment methods. NULIFE will help provide a better common understanding of, and information on, the factors affecting the lifetime of nuclear power plants which, together with associated management methods, will help facilitate extensions to the safe and economic lifetime of existing nuclear power plants. (author)

  7. Quality of life prediction in children with joint hypermobility syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacey, Verity; Tofts, Louise; Adams, Roger D; Munns, Craig F; Nicholson, Leslie L

    2015-07-01

    To assess the child- and parent-reported health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of children with joint hypermobility syndrome (JHS), to compare these with other chronic paediatric conditions and to determine whether symptoms experienced by children with JHS can predict their HRQOL. Eighty-nine children with JHS and one of their parents completed the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory 4.0 Generic Core Scale, the Multidimensional Fatigue Scale and the Pediatric Pain Questionnaire. Anthropometric measures and reported symptoms were recorded. Child-reported HRQOL scores were compared with parent report, and both child- and parent-reported HRQOL scores of children with JHS were compared with those of children with other chronic conditions. Stepwise multiple regression was undertaken to determine whether any combination of measures could predict HRQOL. Parent- and child-reported HRQOL scores were strongly correlated (r = 0.6-0.84, all P children with JHS perceived lower overall HRQOL (mean difference = 4.44, P = 0.001), physical (mean difference = 7.11, P children. When considered together with previously reported HRQOL scores for children with other chronic conditions, parent and child scores were similarly strongly correlated (r = 0.93, P = 0.001). Multiple regression revealed that 75% of the variance in child-reported HRQOL scores was accounted for by a child's level of pain and fatigue, and presence of stress incontinence symptoms (P Children with JHS experience poor HRQOL and disabling fatigue, with parent scores providing a good proxy. Pain, fatigue and the presence of stress incontinence symptoms have the greatest impact on their HRQOL. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health © 2015 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

  8. An analytical method to predict fatigue life of thermoplastics in uniaxial loading: sensitivity to wave type, frequency and stress amplitude

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, R.P.M.; Govaert, L.E.; Meijer, H.E.H.

    2008-01-01

    A method is presented that allows fatigue life predictions on the basis of creep life data. The approach is based on the assumption that the time-dependent failure of polymers is determined by the intrinsic strain softening that is initiated when a critical threshold value of the plastic strain is

  9. Life Prediction of Large Lithium-Ion Battery Packs with Active and Passive Balancing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shi, Ying [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Smith, Kandler A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zane, Regan [Utah State University; Anderson, Dyche [Ford Motor Company

    2017-07-03

    Lithium-ion battery packs take a major part of large-scale stationary energy storage systems. One challenge in reducing battery pack cost is to reduce pack size without compromising pack service performance and lifespan. Prognostic life model can be a powerful tool to handle the state of health (SOH) estimate and enable active life balancing strategy to reduce cell imbalance and extend pack life. This work proposed a life model using both empirical and physical-based approaches. The life model described the compounding effect of different degradations on the entire cell with an empirical model. Then its lower-level submodels considered the complex physical links between testing statistics (state of charge level, C-rate level, duty cycles, etc.) and the degradation reaction rates with respect to specific aging mechanisms. The hybrid approach made the life model generic, robust and stable regardless of battery chemistry and application usage. The model was validated with a custom pack with both passive and active balancing systems implemented, which created four different aging paths in the pack. The life model successfully captured the aging trajectories of all four paths. The life model prediction errors on capacity fade and resistance growth were within +/-3% and +/-5% of the experiment measurements.

  10. Prediction of the Service Life of a Reinforced Concrete Column under Chloride Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad K. Alkam

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present investigation, service life of a reinforced concrete column exposed to chloride environment has been predicted. This study has been based on numerical simulation of chloride ion diffusion in a concrete column during its anticipated life span. The simulation process has included the concrete cover replacement whenever chloride ion concentration has reached the critical threshold value at the reinforcement surface. Repair scheduling of the concrete column under consideration has been discussed. Effects of the concrete cover thickness and the water cement ratio on the service life of the concrete column at hand have been presented. A new approach for arranging locations of reinforcement steel bars has been introduced. This approach is intended to prolong the service life of the concrete column under consideration against chloride induced corrosion.

  11. Thermomechanical Fatigue of Ductile Cast Iron and Its Life Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xijia; Quan, Guangchun; MacNeil, Ryan; Zhang, Zhong; Liu, Xiaoyang; Sloss, Clayton

    2015-06-01

    Thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) behaviors of ductile cast iron (DCI) were investigated under out-of-phase (OP), in-phase (IP), and constrained strain-control conditions with temperature hold in various temperature ranges: 573 K to 1073 K, 723 K to 1073 K, and 433 K to 873 K (300 °C to 800 °C, 450 °C to 800 °C, and 160 °C to 600 °C). The integrated creep-fatigue theory (ICFT) model was incorporated into the finite element method to simulate the hysteresis behavior and predict the TMF life of DCI under those test conditions. With the consideration of four deformation/damage mechanisms: (i) plasticity-induced fatigue, (ii) intergranular embrittlement, (iii) creep, and (iv) oxidation, as revealed from the previous study on low cycle fatigue of the material, the model delineates the contributions of these physical mechanisms in the asymmetrical hysteresis behavior and the damage accumulation process leading to final TMF failure. This study shows that the ICFT model can simulate the stress-strain response and life of DCI under complex TMF loading profiles (OP and IP, and constrained with temperature hold).

  12. Life-Space Predicts Health Care Utilization in Community-Dwelling Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Richard E; Williams, Courtney P; Sawyer, Patricia; Lo, Alexander X; Connelly, Kay; Nassel, Ariann; Brown, Cynthia J

    2017-09-01

    To determine whether decline in life-space mobility predicts increased health care utilization among community-dwelling older adults. Health care utilization (number of emergency department [ED] visits and hospitalizations) was self-reported during monthly interviews among 419 community-dwelling African American and non-Hispanic White adults aged 75 years and older in The University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) Study of Aging II. Life-space was measured using the UAB Life-Space Assessment. Generalized estimating equations were used to examine associations of life-space at the beginning of each interval with health care utilization over the 1-month interval. Overall, 400 participants were followed for 36 months. A 10-point decrease in life-space was associated with 14% increased odds of an ED visit and/or hospitalization over the next month, adjusting for demographics, transportation difficulty, comorbidity, and having a doctor visit in the last month. Life-space is a practical alternative in predicting future health care utilization to performance-based measures, which can be difficult to incorporate into clinical or public health practice.

  13. Fatigue life prediction of oil ducts under service loads

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meggiolaro, Marco A.; Castro, Jaime T.P. [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2003-07-01

    A methodology to calculate the residual initiation and propagation lives of fatigue cracks in oil pipelines with corrosion-like defects is proposed and applied to predict the residual life of an old duct made of API 5L Gr. B steel, in service for more than 40 years. Since its inauguration, this pipeline has carried several heated products under variable temperatures and pressures. The calculated (nominal) service stresses are very high, due to thermal loads that induce significant bending in curved parts of the duct, with peaks close to the yield strength of the steel. The elastic- plastic fatigue damage at a notch or a corrosion pit root is calculated using the {epsilon}N method, and the effects of surface semi-elliptical cracks in its internal (or external) wall is studied considering appropriate stress intensity factor expressions and the actual service loads. In the presence of surface flaws associated to stress concentration factors of the order of three, a fatigue crack likely will initiate in the pipeline. However, if these surface cracks are small compared to the duct wall thickness, their predicted propagation rates are very low. (author)

  14. Probabilistic approaches to life prediction of nuclear plant structural components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villain, B.; Pitner, P.; Procaccia, H.

    1996-01-01

    In the last decade there has been an increasing interest at EDF in developing and applying probabilistic methods for a variety of purposes. In the field of structural integrity and reliability they are used to evaluate the effect of deterioration due to aging mechanisms, mainly on major passive structural components such as steam generators, pressure vessels and piping in nuclear plants. Because there can be numerous uncertainties involved in a assessment of the performance of these structural components, probabilistic methods. The benefits of a probabilistic approach are the clear treatment of uncertainly and the possibility to perform sensitivity studies from which it is possible to identify and quantify the effect of key factors and mitigative actions. They thus provide information to support effective decisions to optimize In-Service Inspection planning and maintenance strategies and for realistic lifetime prediction or reassessment. The purpose of the paper is to discuss and illustrate the methods available at EDF for probabilistic component life prediction. This includes a presentation of software tools in classical, Bayesian and structural reliability, and an application on two case studies (steam generator tube bundle, reactor pressure vessel). (authors)

  15. Probabilistic approaches to life prediction of nuclear plant structural components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villain, B.; Pitner, P.; Procaccia, H.

    1996-01-01

    In the last decade there has been an increasing interest at EDF in developing and applying probabilistic methods for a variety of purposes. In the field of structural integrity and reliability they are used to evaluate the effect of deterioration due to aging mechanisms, mainly on major passive structural components such as steam generators, pressure vessels and piping in nuclear plants. Because there can be numerous uncertainties involved in an assessment of the performance of these structural components, probabilistic methods provide an attractive alternative or supplement to more conventional deterministic methods. The benefits of a probabilistic approach are the clear treatment of uncertainty and the possibility to perform sensitivity studies from which it is possible to identify and quantify the effect of key factors and mitigative actions. They thus provide information to support effective decisions to optimize In-Service Inspection planning and maintenance strategies and for realistic lifetime prediction or reassessment. The purpose of the paper is to discuss and illustrate the methods available at EDF for probabilistic component life prediction. This includes a presentation of software tools in classical, Bayesian and structural reliability, and an application on two case studies (steam generator tube bundle, reactor pressure vessel)

  16. Numerical analysis of rolling contact fatigue crack initiation and fatigue life prediction of the railway crossing

    OpenAIRE

    Xin, L.; Markine, V.L.; Shevtsov, I.

    2015-01-01

    The procedure for analysing rolling contact fatigue crack initiation and fatigue life prediction of the railway turnout crossing is developed. A three-dimensional finite element (FE) model is used to obtain stress and strain results, considering the dynamic effects of wheel-crossing rolling contact. Material model accounting for elastic- plastic isotropic and kinematic hardening effects is adopted. The results from FE analysis are combined with J-S fatigue model that is based on critical plan...

  17. Development of a clinical prediction model to calculate patient life expectancy: the measure of actuarial life expectancy (MALE).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, M G; Kennedy, K P; MacDonagh, R P

    2009-01-01

    To develop a clinical prediction model enabling the calculation of an individual patient's life expectancy (LE) and survival probability based on age, sex, and comorbidity for use in the joint decision-making process regarding medical treatment. A computer software program was developed with a team of 3 clinicians, 2 professional actuaries, and 2 professional computer programmers. This incorporated statistical spreadsheet and database access design methods. Data sources included life insurance industry actuarial rating factor tables (public and private domain), Government Actuary Department UK life tables, professional actuarial sources, and evidence-based medical literature. The main outcome measures were numerical and graphical display of comorbidity-adjusted LE; 5-, 10-, and 15-year survival probability; in addition to generic UK population LE. Nineteen medical conditions, which impacted significantly on LE in actuarial terms and were commonly encountered in clinical practice, were incorporated in the final model. Numerical and graphical representations of statistical predictions of LE and survival probability were successfully generated for patients with either no comorbidity or a combination of the 19 medical conditions included. Validation and testing, including actuarial peer review, confirmed consistency with the data sources utilized. The evidence-based actuarial data utilized in this computer program design represent a valuable resource for use in the clinical decision-making process, where an accurate objective assessment of patient LE can so often make the difference between patients being offered or denied medical and surgical treatment. Ongoing development to incorporate additional comorbidities and enable Web-based access will enhance its use further.

  18. Method and apparatus to predict the remaining service life of an operating system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Terrones, Kristine M.; Maynard, Melody A.; Pawlowski, Ronald A. , Ferryman; Thomas A.; Skorpik, James R.; Wilson, Bary W.

    2008-11-25

    A method and computer-based apparatus for monitoring the degradation of, predicting the remaining service life of, and/or planning maintenance for, an operating system are disclosed. Diagnostic information on degradation of the operating system is obtained through measurement of one or more performance characteristics by one or more sensors onboard and/or proximate the operating system. Though not required, it is preferred that the sensor data are validated to improve the accuracy and reliability of the service life predictions. The condition or degree of degradation of the operating system is presented to a user by way of one or more calculated, numeric degradation figures of merit that are trended against one or more independent variables using one or more mathematical techniques. Furthermore, more than one trendline and uncertainty interval may be generated for a given degradation figure of merit/independent variable data set. The trendline(s) and uncertainty interval(s) are subsequently compared to one or more degradation figure of merit thresholds to predict the remaining service life of the operating system. The present invention enables multiple mathematical approaches in determining which trendline(s) to use to provide the best estimate of the remaining service life.

  19. Ways that Social Change Predicts Personal Quality of Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Chau-Kiu; Leung, Kwok

    2010-01-01

    A notable way that social change affects personal quality of life would rely on the person's experience with social change. This experience may influence societal quality of life and quality of work life, which may in turn affect personal quality of life. Additionally, the experience of social change is possibly less detrimental to personal…

  20. The Role of Big Five Personality Factors and Defense Mechanisms in Predicting Quality of Life in Sexually Dysfunctional Female Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. salary

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Sexual dysfunction can lead to behavioral problems and reduction in a person's quality of life. In 50 % of patients with personality disorders, there is also sexual dysfunction. Psychoanalysis approach attributes the cause of sexual dysfunction to a kind of fundamental anxiety as well as the use of immature mechanisms in these patients. The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of big five personality traits and defensive mechanisms in predicting these patients' quality of life. Statistical sample of this research included 80 women attending sexual health and family clinics of Shahed University using accessible sampling during 2010 and 2011. These subjects were given the Neo Personality Inventory Traits, Defensive Mechanisms, and the World Health organization Quality of Life Questionnaires to answer. The findings showed that personality traits could predict the quality of life in woman with sexual dysfunction. Moreover, among those five personality traits, neuroticism (:./24 P=./04 and conscientiousness(:./31 P=./03 were able to predict the quality of life while predictability rate of both factors was 37% of variance on the whole (p=0/05. Based on regression analysis, there was a significant relationship between the quality of life and defensive mechanisms so that using more mature defensive mechanisms (:./37 P=./006 and immature defensive mechanisms (:-./31 P= ./02 could significantly predict quality of life (p=0/0001. Also, neurotic defensive mechanisms were not significant predictors of these women' quality of life. (;./04 P=./78.

  1. Trust-based collective view prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Luo, Tiejian; Xu, Guandong; Zhou, Jia

    2013-01-01

    Collective view prediction is to judge the opinions of an active web user based on unknown elements by referring to the collective mind of the whole community. Content-based recommendation and collaborative filtering are two mainstream collective view prediction techniques. They generate predictions by analyzing the text features of the target object or the similarity of users' past behaviors. Still, these techniques are vulnerable to the artificially-injected noise data, because they are not able to judge the reliability and credibility of the information sources. Trust-based Collective View

  2. Durability and life prediction modeling in polyimide composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binienda, Wieslaw K.

    1995-01-01

    Sudden appearance of cracks on a macroscopically smooth surface of brittle materials due to cooling or drying shrinkage is a phenomenon related to many engineering problems. Although conventional strength theories can be used to predict the necessary condition for crack appearance, they are unable to predict crack spacing and depth. On the other hand, fracture mechanics theory can only study the behavior of existing cracks. The theory of crack initiation can be summarized into three conditions, which is a combination of a strength criterion and laws of energy conservation, the average crack spacing and depth can thus be determined. The problem of crack initiation from the surface of an elastic half plane is solved and compares quite well with available experimental evidence. The theory of crack initiation is also applied to concrete pavements. The influence of cracking is modeled by the additional compliance according to Okamura's method. The theoretical prediction by this structural mechanics type of model correlates very well with the field observation. The model may serve as a theoretical foundation for future pavement joint design. The initiation of interactive cracks of quasi-brittle material is studied based on a theory of cohesive crack model. These cracks may grow simultaneously, or some of them may close during certain stages. The concept of crack unloading of cohesive crack model is proposed. The critical behavior (crack bifurcation, maximum loads) of the cohesive crack model are characterized by rate equations. The post-critical behavior of crack initiation is also studied.

  3. A New Approach to Predict the Fish Fillet Shelf-Life in Presence of Natural Preservative Agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuffrida, Alessandro; Giarratana, Filippo; Valenti, Davide; Muscolino, Daniele; Parisi, Roberta; Parco, Alessio; Marotta, Stefania; Ziino, Graziella; Panebianco, Antonio

    2017-04-13

    Three data sets concerning the behaviour of spoilage flora of fillets treated with natural preservative substances (NPS) were used to construct a new kind of mathematical predictive model. This model, unlike other ones, allows expressing the antibacterial effect of the NPS separately from the prediction of the growth rate. This approach, based on the introduction of a parameter into the predictive primary model, produced a good fitting of observed data and allowed characterising quantitatively the increase of shelf-life of fillets.

  4. Basic traits predict the prevalence of personality disorder across the life span: the example of psychopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vachon, David D; Lynam, Donald R; Widiger, Thomas A; Miller, Joshua D; McCrae, Robert R; Costa, Paul T

    2013-05-01

    Personality disorders (PDs) may be better understood in terms of dimensions of general personality functioning rather than as discrete categorical conditions. Personality-trait descriptions of PDs are robust across methods and settings, and PD assessments based on trait measures show good construct validity. The study reported here extends research showing that basic traits (e.g., impulsiveness, warmth, straightforwardness, modesty, and deliberation) can re-create the epidemiological characteristics associated with PDs. Specifically, we used normative changes in absolute trait levels to simulate age-related differences in the prevalence of psychopathy in a forensic setting. Results demonstrated that trait information predicts the rate of decline for psychopathy over the life span; discriminates the decline of psychopathy from that of a similar disorder, antisocial PD; and accurately predicts the differential decline of subfactors of psychopathy. These findings suggest that basic traits provide a parsimonious account of PD prevalence across the life span.

  5. International Space Station Bacteria Filter Element Post-Flight Testing and Service Life Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, J. L.; von Jouanne, R. G.; Turner, E. H.

    2003-01-01

    The International Space Station uses high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters to remove particulate matter from the cabin atmosphere. Known as Bacteria Filter Elements (BFEs), there are 13 elements deployed on board the ISS's U.S. Segment. The pre-flight service life prediction of 1 year for the BFEs is based upon performance engineering analysis of data collected during developmental testing that used a synthetic dust challenge. While this challenge is considered reasonable and conservative from a design perspective, an understanding of the actual filter loading is required to best manage the critical ISS Program resources. Thus testing was conducted on BFEs returned from the ISS to refine the service life prediction. Results from this testing and implications to ISS resource management are discussed. Recommendations for realizing significant savings to the ISS Program are presented.

  6. New considerations on variability of creep rupture data and life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Seon Jin; Jeong, Won Taek; Kong, Yu Sik

    2009-01-01

    This paper deals with the variability analysis of short term creep rupture test data based on the previous creep rupture tests and the possibility of the creep life prediction. From creep tests performed by constant uniaxial stresses at 600, 650 and 700 .deg. C elevated temperature, in order to investigate the variability of short-term creep rupture data, the creep curves were analyzed for normalized creep strain divided by initial strain. There are some variability in thee creep rupture data. And, the difference between general creep curves and normalized creep curves were obtained. The effects of the creep rupture time and state steady creep rate on the Weibull distribution parameters were investigated. There were good relation between normal Weibull parameters and normalized Weibull parameters. Finally, the predicted creep life were compared with the Monkman-Grant model.

  7. New Considerations on Variability of Creep Rupture Data and Life Prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Won Taek; Kong, Yu Sik; Kim, Seon Jin

    2009-01-01

    This paper deals with the variability analysis of short term creep rupture test data based on the previous creep rupture tests and the possibility of the creep life prediction. From creep tests performed by constant uniaxial stresses at 600, 650 and 700 .deg. C elevated temperature, in order to investigate the variability of short-term creep rupture data, the creep curves were analyzed for normalized creep strain divided by initial strain. There are some variability in the creep rupture data. And, the difference between general creep curves and normalized creep curves were obtained. The effects of the creep rupture time (RT) and steady state creep rate (SSCR) on the Weibull distribution parameters were investigated. There were good relation between normal Weibull parameters and normalized Weibull parameters. Finally, the predicted creep life were compared with the Monkman-Grant model

  8. Game-Based Life-Long Learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kelle, Sebastian; Sigurðarson, Steinn; Westera, Wim; Specht, Marcus

    2010-01-01

    Kelle, S., Sigurðarson, S., Westera, W., & Specht, M. (2011). Game-Based Life-Long Learning. In G. D. Magoulas (Ed.), E-Infrastructures and Technologies for Lifelong Learning: Next Generation Environments (pp. 337-349). Hershey, PA: IGI Global.

  9. Projecting LED product life based on application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narendran, Nadarajah; Liu, Yi-wei; Mou, Xi; Thotagamuwa, Dinusha R.; Eshwarage, Oshadhi V. Madihe

    2016-09-01

    LED products have started to displace traditional light sources in many lighting applications. One of the commonly claimed benefits for LED lighting products is their long useful lifetime in applications. Today there are many replacement lamp products using LEDs in the marketplace. Typically, lifetime claims of these replacement lamps are in the 25,000-hour range. According to current industry practice, the time for the LED light output to reach the 70% value is estimated according to IESNA LM-80 and TM-21 procedures and the resulting value is reported as the whole system life. LED products generally experience different thermal environments and switching (on-off cycling) patterns when used in applications. Current industry test methods often do not produce accurate lifetime estimates for LED systems because only one component of the system, namely the LED, is tested under a continuous-on burning condition without switching on and off, and because they estimate for only one failure type, lumen depreciation. The objective of the study presented in this manuscript was to develop a test method that could help predict LED system life in any application by testing the whole LED system, including on-off power cycling with sufficient dwell time, and considering both failure types, catastrophic and parametric. The study results showed for the LED A-lamps tested in this study, both failure types, catastrophic and parametric, exist. The on-off cycling encourages catastrophic failure, and maximum operating temperature influences the lumen depreciation rate and parametric failure time. It was also clear that LED system life is negatively affected by on-off switching, contrary to commonly held belief. In addition, the study results showed that most of the LED systems failed catastrophically much ahead of the LED light output reaching the 70% value. This emphasizes the fact that life testing of LED systems must consider catastrophic failure in addition to lumen depreciation, and

  10. The Fatigue Life Prediction of Train Wheel Rims Containing Spherical Inclusions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yajie; Chen, Huanguo; Cai, Li; Chen, Pei; Qian, Jiacheng; Wu, Jianwei

    2018-03-01

    It is a common phenomenon that fatigue crack initiation occurs frequently in the inclusions of wheel rims. Research on the fatigue life of wheel rims with spherical inclusions is of great significance on the reliability of wheels. To find the danger point and working condition of a wheel, the stress state of the wheel rim with spherical inclusions was analyzed using the finite element method. Results revealed that curve conditions are dangerous. The critical plane method, based on the cumulative fatigue damage theory, was used to predict the fatigue life of the wheel rim and whether it contained spherical inclusions or not under curve conditions. It was found that the fatigue life of the wheel rim is significantly shorter when the wheel rim contains spherical inclusions. Analysis of the results can provide a theoretical basis and technical support for train operations and maintenance.

  11. Fatigue Life Analysis and Prediction of 316L Stainless Steel Under Low Cycle Fatigue Loading

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Hyeong; Myung, NohJun; Choi, Nak-Sam [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-12-15

    In this study, a strain-controlled fatigue test of widely-used 316L stainless steel with excellent corrosion resistance and mechanical properties was conducted, in order to assess its fatigue life. Low cycle fatigue behaviors were analyzed at room temperature, as a function of the strain amplitude and strain ratio. The material was hardened during the initial few cycles, and then was softened during the long post period, until failure occurred. The fatigue life decreased with increasing strain amplitude. Masing behavior in the hysteresis loop was shown under the low strain amplitude, whereas the high strain amplitude caused non-Masing behavior and reduced the mean stress. Low cycle fatigue life prediction based on the cyclic plastic energy dissipation theory, considering Masing and non-Masing effects, showed a good correlation with the experimental results.

  12. Predicting the creep life and failure mode of low-alloy steel weldments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brear, J.M.; Middleton, C.J.; Aplin, P.F. [ERA Technology Ltd., Leatherhead (United Kingdom)

    1998-12-31

    This presentation reviews and consolidates experience gained through a number of research projects and practical plant assessments in predicting both the life and the likely failure mode and location in low alloy steel weldments. The approach adopted begins with the recognition that the relative strength difference between the microstructural regions is a key factor controlling both life and failure location. Practical methods based on hardness measurement and adaptable to differing weld geometries are presented and evidence for correlations between hardness ratio, damage accumulation and strain development is discussed. Predictor diagrams relating weld life and failure location to the service conditions and the hardness of the individual microstructural constituents are suggested and comments are given on the implications for identifying the circumstances in which Type IV cracking is to be expected. (orig.) 6 refs.

  13. Predicting the creep life and failure mode of low-alloy steel weldments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brear, J M; Middleton, C J; Aplin, P F [ERA Technology Ltd., Leatherhead (United Kingdom)

    1999-12-31

    This presentation reviews and consolidates experience gained through a number of research projects and practical plant assessments in predicting both the life and the likely failure mode and location in low alloy steel weldments. The approach adopted begins with the recognition that the relative strength difference between the microstructural regions is a key factor controlling both life and failure location. Practical methods based on hardness measurement and adaptable to differing weld geometries are presented and evidence for correlations between hardness ratio, damage accumulation and strain development is discussed. Predictor diagrams relating weld life and failure location to the service conditions and the hardness of the individual microstructural constituents are suggested and comments are given on the implications for identifying the circumstances in which Type IV cracking is to be expected. (orig.) 6 refs.

  14. Assessment and propagation of mechanical property uncertainties in fatigue life prediction of composite laminates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Castro, Oscar; Branner, Kim; Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov

    2018-01-01

    amplitude loading cycles. Fatigue life predictions of unidirectional and multi-directional glass/epoxy laminates are carried out to validate the proposed model against experimental data. The probabilistic fatigue behavior of laminates is analyzed under constant amplitude loading conditions as well as under......A probabilistic model for estimating the fatigue life of laminated composite materials considering the uncertainty in their mechanical properties is developed. The uncertainty in the material properties is determined from fatigue coupon tests. Based on this uncertainty, probabilistic constant life...... diagrams are developed which can efficiently estimate probabilistic É›-N curves at any load level and stress ratio. The probabilistic É›-N curve information is used in a reliability analysis for fatigue limit state proposed for estimating the probability of failure of composite laminates under variable...

  15. Life estimation I and C cable insulation materials based on accelerated life testing accelerated life testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santhosh, T.V.; Ramteke, P.K.; Shrestha, N.B.; Ahirwar, A.K.; Gopika, V.

    2016-01-01

    Accelerated Iife tests are becoming increasingly popular in today's industry due to the need for obtaining life data quickly and reliably. Life testing of products under higher stress levels without introducing additional failure modes can provide significant savings of both time and money. Correct analysis of data gathered via such accelerated life testing will yield parameters and other information for the product's life under use stress conditions. To be of practical use in assessing the operational behaviour of cables in NPPs, laboratory ageing aims to mimic the type of degradation observed under operational conditions. Conditions of testing therefore need to be carefully chosen to ensure that the degradation mechanism occurring in the accelerated tests are similar to those which occur in service. This paper presents the results of an investigation in which the elongation-at-break (EAB) measurements were carried on a typical control cable to predict the mean life at service conditions. A low voltage polyvinyl chloride (PVC) insulated and PVC sheathed control cable, used in NPP instrumentation and control (I and C) applications, was subjected thermal ageing at three elevated temperatures

  16. Prediction of composite fatigue life under variable amplitude loading using artificial neural network trained by genetic algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohman, Muhamad Nur; Hidayat, Mas Irfan P.; Purniawan, Agung

    2018-04-01

    Neural networks (NN) have been widely used in application of fatigue life prediction. In the use of fatigue life prediction for polymeric-base composite, development of NN model is necessary with respect to the limited fatigue data and applicable to be used to predict the fatigue life under varying stress amplitudes in the different stress ratios. In the present paper, Multilayer-Perceptrons (MLP) model of neural network is developed, and Genetic Algorithm was employed to optimize the respective weights of NN for prediction of polymeric-base composite materials under variable amplitude loading. From the simulation result obtained with two different composite systems, named E-glass fabrics/epoxy (layups [(±45)/(0)2]S), and E-glass/polyester (layups [90/0/±45/0]S), NN model were trained with fatigue data from two different stress ratios, which represent limited fatigue data, can be used to predict another four and seven stress ratios respectively, with high accuracy of fatigue life prediction. The accuracy of NN prediction were quantified with the small value of mean square error (MSE). When using 33% from the total fatigue data for training, the NN model able to produce high accuracy for all stress ratios. When using less fatigue data during training (22% from the total fatigue data), the NN model still able to produce high coefficient of determination between the prediction result compared with obtained by experiment.

  17. Exposure to stressful life events during pregnancy predicts psychotic experiences via behaviour problems in childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, Kim S; Williams, Gail M; Najman, Jakob M; Scott, James; Alati, Rosa

    2014-12-01

    Exposure to stressful life events during pregnancy has been associated with later schizophrenia in offspring. We explore how prenatal stress and neurodevelopmental abnormalities in childhood associate to increase the risk of later psychotic experiences. Participants from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy (MUSP), an Australian based, pre-birth cohort study were examined for lifetime DSM-IV positive psychotic experiences at 21 years by a semi-structured interview (n = 2227). Structural equation modelling suggested psychotic experiences were best represented with a bifactor model including a general psychosis factor and two group factors. We tested for an association between prenatal stressful life events with the psychotic experiences, and examined for potential moderation and mediation by behaviour problems and cognitive ability in childhood. Prenatal stressful life events predicted psychotic experiences indirectly via behaviour problems at child age five years, and this relationship was not confounded by maternal stressful life events at child age five. We found no statistical evidence for an interaction between prenatal stressful life events and behaviour problems or cognitive ability. The measurable effect of prenatal stressful life events on later psychotic experiences in offspring manifested as behaviour problems by age 5. By identifying early abnormal behavioural development as an intermediary, this finding further confirms the role of prenatal stress to later psychotic disorders. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. RandomForest4Life: a Random Forest for predicting ALS disease progression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hothorn, Torsten; Jung, Hans H

    2014-09-01

    We describe a method for predicting disease progression in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients. The method was developed as a submission to the DREAM Phil Bowen ALS Prediction Prize4Life Challenge of summer 2012. Based on repeated patient examinations over a three- month period, we used a random forest algorithm to predict future disease progression. The procedure was set up and internally evaluated using data from 1197 ALS patients. External validation by an expert jury was based on undisclosed information of an additional 625 patients; all patient data were obtained from the PRO-ACT database. In terms of prediction accuracy, the approach described here ranked third best. Our interpretation of the prediction model confirmed previous reports suggesting that past disease progression is a strong predictor of future disease progression measured on the ALS functional rating scale (ALSFRS). We also found that larger variability in initial ALSFRS scores is linked to faster future disease progression. The results reported here furthermore suggested that approaches taking the multidimensionality of the ALSFRS into account promise some potential for improved ALS disease prediction.

  19. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced heat engines. Phase 1: Volume 1, Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cuccio, J.C.; Brehm, P.; Fang, H.T. [Allied-Signal Aerospace Co., Phoenix, AZ (United States). Garrett Engine Div.] [and others

    1995-03-01

    Emphasis of this program is to develop and demonstrate ceramics life prediction methods, including fast fracture, stress rupture, creep, oxidation, and nondestructive evaluation. Significant advancements were made in these methods and their predictive capabilities successfully demonstrated.

  20. Ghrelin level negatively predicts quality of life in obese women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, P H; Song, Y L; Hsu, C H

    2017-02-01

    A cross-sectional cohort study was conducted to investigate whether ghrelin level in obese women predicts the quality of life (QOL). A total of 307 subjects fulfilled the criteria: (1) age between 20 and 65 years old, (2) body mass index ≥27 kg/m 2 (3) waist circumference ≥80 cm were enrolled in the study. All subjects were assigned to one of the plasma ghrelin level categories according to the quartiles. The median of age and BMI of the 307 obese women were 45 ± 18 years and 29.9 ± 4.1 kg/m 2 , respectively. The main outcome evaluated is the associations of plasma ghrelin level and QOL, which were evaluated using multiple linear regression analysis. Results of linear trend test show significant statistical difference in plasma lipoproteins (triglyceride, cholesterol, HDL-cholestero and LDL-cholesterol = and levels of obesity-related hormone peptides, including leptin, adiponectin, insulin among quartiles of ghrelin. Multiple liner regression analysis of serum obesity-related hormone peptide level and QOL using stepwise method shows ghrelin concentration was the only predictor of QOL, including PCS-12 level (β = -0.18, p = 0.001), MCS-12 level (β = -0.14, p = 0.009), WHOQOL-BREF scores: physical (β = -0.13, p = 0.03), psychological (β = -0.16, p = 0.007), social (β = -0.21, p =  ghrelin concentration is strongly associated with QOL level among obese women. Hence, ghrelin concentration might be a valuable marker to be monitored in obese women.

  1. The Social Life of a Data Base

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linde, Charlotte; Wales, Roxana; Clancy, Dan (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents the complex social life of a large data base. The topics include: 1) Social Construction of Mechanisms of Memory; 2) Data Bases: The Invisible Memory Mechanism; 3) The Human in the Machine; 4) Data of the Study: A Large-Scale Problem Reporting Data Base; 5) The PRACA Study; 6) Description of PRACA; 7) PRACA and Paper; 8) Multiple Uses of PRACA; 9) The Work of PRACA; 10) Multiple Forms of Invisibility; 11) Such Systems are Everywhere; and 12) Two Morals to the Story. This paper is in viewgraph form.

  2. Fatigue mechanics - An assessment of a unified approach to life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newman, J.C. Jr.; Phillips, E.P.; Swain, M.H.; Everett, R.A. Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Consideration is given to the development of a total-life prediction methodology for aerospace structures based solely on crack propagation from a microstructural defect at stress concentrations. Crack-growth lives were calculated for a given loading condition by integrating the crack-growth-rate-against-delta K relationships for crack growth from a microstructural defect size to failure. Both small- and large-crack growth rate data were used. The assessment was based on data on 2024-T3 aluminum alloy, 2090-T8E41 aluminum-lithium alloy, annealed Ti-6Al-4V titanium alloy, and high-strength 4340 steel under either constant-amplitude or spectrum loading. Good agreement was found between fatigue lives measured on notched specimens with those computed from the total-life analysis. 29 refs

  3. Speech Intelligibility Prediction Based on Mutual Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jesper; Taal, Cees H.

    2014-01-01

    This paper deals with the problem of predicting the average intelligibility of noisy and potentially processed speech signals, as observed by a group of normal hearing listeners. We propose a model which performs this prediction based on the hypothesis that intelligibility is monotonically related...... to the mutual information between critical-band amplitude envelopes of the clean signal and the corresponding noisy/processed signal. The resulting intelligibility predictor turns out to be a simple function of the mean-square error (mse) that arises when estimating a clean critical-band amplitude using...... a minimum mean-square error (mmse) estimator based on the noisy/processed amplitude. The proposed model predicts that speech intelligibility cannot be improved by any processing of noisy critical-band amplitudes. Furthermore, the proposed intelligibility predictor performs well ( ρ > 0.95) in predicting...

  4. Ensemble of data-driven prognostic algorithms for robust prediction of remaining useful life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Chao; Youn, Byeng D.; Wang Pingfeng; Taek Yoon, Joung

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics aims at determining whether a failure of an engineered system (e.g., a nuclear power plant) is impending and estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) before the failure occurs. The traditional data-driven prognostic approach is to construct multiple candidate algorithms using a training data set, evaluate their respective performance using a testing data set, and select the one with the best performance while discarding all the others. This approach has three shortcomings: (i) the selected standalone algorithm may not be robust; (ii) it wastes the resources for constructing the algorithms that are discarded; (iii) it requires the testing data in addition to the training data. To overcome these drawbacks, this paper proposes an ensemble data-driven prognostic approach which combines multiple member algorithms with a weighted-sum formulation. Three weighting schemes, namely the accuracy-based weighting, diversity-based weighting and optimization-based weighting, are proposed to determine the weights of member algorithms. The k-fold cross validation (CV) is employed to estimate the prediction error required by the weighting schemes. The results obtained from three case studies suggest that the ensemble approach with any weighting scheme gives more accurate RUL predictions compared to any sole algorithm when member algorithms producing diverse RUL predictions have comparable prediction accuracy and that the optimization-based weighting scheme gives the best overall performance among the three weighting schemes.

  5. Calorimeter prediction based on multiple exponentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.K.; Bracken, D.S.

    2002-01-01

    Calorimetry allows very precise measurements of nuclear material to be carried out, but it also requires relatively long measurement times to do so. The ability to accurately predict the equilibrium response of a calorimeter would significantly reduce the amount of time required for calorimetric assays. An algorithm has been developed that is effective at predicting the equilibrium response. This multi-exponential prediction algorithm is based on an iterative technique using commercial fitting routines that fit a constant plus a variable number of exponential terms to calorimeter data. Details of the implementation and the results of trials on a large number of calorimeter data sets will be presented

  6. A novel health indicator for on-line lithium-ion batteries remaining useful life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yapeng; Huang, Miaohua; Chen, Yupu; Tao, Ye

    2016-07-01

    Prediction of lithium-ion batteries remaining useful life (RUL) plays an important role in an intelligent battery management system. The capacity and internal resistance are often used as the batteries health indicator (HI) for quantifying degradation and predicting RUL. However, on-line measurement of capacity and internal resistance are hardly realizable due to the not fully charged and discharged condition and the extremely expensive cost, respectively. Therefore, there is a great need to find an optional way to deal with this plight. In this work, a novel HI is extracted from the operating parameters of lithium-ion batteries for degradation modeling and RUL prediction. Moreover, Box-Cox transformation is employed to improve HI performance. Then Pearson and Spearman correlation analyses are utilized to evaluate the similarity between real capacity and the estimated capacity derived from the HI. Next, both simple statistical regression technique and optimized relevance vector machine are employed to predict the RUL based on the presented HI. The correlation analyses and prediction results show the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed HI for battery degradation modeling and RUL prediction.

  7. Prediction information - GRIPDB | LSDB Archive [Life Science Database Archive metadata

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available switchLanguage; BLAST Search Image Search Home About Archive Update History Data List Contact us GRI...a.nbdc01665-004 Description of data contents Predicted GPCR interaction regions Data file File name: gripdb_...predicted_info.zip File URL: ftp://ftp.biosciencedbc.jp/archive/gripdb/LATEST/gripdb_predicted_info.zip File... size: 219 KB Simple search URL http://togodb.biosciencedbc.jp/togodb/view/gripdb...entries Data item Description ID Prediction information ID GRIP ID GRIP ID related wigh the prediction Predi

  8. A method for gear fatigue life prediction considering the internal flow field of the gear pump

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Haidong; Li, Zhiqiang; Qi, Lele; Qiao, Liang

    2018-01-01

    Gear pump is the most widely used volume type hydraulic pump, and it is the main power source of the hydraulic system. Its performance is influenced by many factors, such as working environment, maintenance, fluid pressure and so on. It is different from the gear transmission system, the internal flow field of gear pump has a greater impact on the gear life, therefore it needs to consider the internal hydraulic system when predicting the gear fatigue life. In this paper, a certain aircraft gear pump as the research object, aim at the typical failure forms, gear contact fatigue, of gear pump, proposing the prediction method based on the virtual simulation. The method use CFD (Computational fluid dynamics) software to analyze pressure distribution of internal flow field of the gear pump, and constructed the unidirectional flow-solid coupling model of gear to acquire the contact stress of tooth surface on Ansys workbench software. Finally, employing nominal stress method and Miner cumulative damage theory to calculated the gear contact fatigue life based on modified material P-S-N curve. Engineering practice show that the method is feasible and efficient.

  9. Fatigue crack growth and life prediction under mixed-mode loading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sajith, S.; Murthy, K. S. R. K.; Robi, P. S.

    2018-04-01

    Fatigue crack growth life as a function of crack length is essential for the prevention of catastrophic failures from damage tolerance perspective. In damage tolerance design approach, principles of fracture mechanics are usually applied to predict the fatigue life of structural components. Numerical prediction of crack growth versus number of cycles is essential in damage tolerance design. For cracks under mixed mode I/II loading, modified Paris law (d/a d N =C (ΔKe q ) m ) along with different equivalent stress intensity factor (ΔKeq) model is used for fatigue crack growth rate prediction. There are a large number of ΔKeq models available for the mixed mode I/II loading, the selection of proper ΔKeq model has significant impact on fatigue life prediction. In the present investigation, the performance of ΔKeq models in fatigue life prediction is compared with respect to the experimental findings as there are no guidelines/suggestions available on the selection of these models for accurate and/or conservative predictions of fatigue life. Within the limitations of availability of experimental data and currently available numerical simulation techniques, the results of present study attempt to outline models that would provide accurate and conservative life predictions. Such a study aid the numerical analysts or engineers in the proper selection of the model for numerical simulation of the fatigue life. Moreover, the present investigation also suggests a procedure to enhance the accuracy of life prediction using Paris law.

  10. Do Proxies for the Neurotransmitter Cortisol Predict Adaptation to Life with Chronic Pain?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deamond, Wade

    Among the numerous difficulties encountered by chronic pain patients, impulsive and dysfunctional decision-making complicate their already difficult life situations yet remains relatively understudied. This study examined a recently published neurobiological decision making model that identifies eight specific neurotransmitters and hormones (Dopamine, Testosterone, Endogenous Opioids Glutamate, Serotonin, Norepinephrine, Cortisol, and GABA) linked to unsound decision making related to cognitive, motivational and emotional dysregulation (Nussbaum et al., 2011) (see Appendix 2). The Perceived Stress Scale (PSS), a proxy for the cortisol element in the pharmacological decision making model was analyzed for the neurotransmitter's relationship to functionality and quality of life in a group of 37 chronic pain patients. Participants were comprised of males and females ranging from 23 to 52 years of age and were classified with respect to levels of adjustment to living with chronic pain based on the Quality of Life Scale (QLS), the Dartmouth WONCA COOP Charts and the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF). The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and Frontal System Behavioral Scale (FSBS) measured decision making related to immediate gratification and daily living respectively. Results suggest that emotional dysregulation, as measured by the PSS is a significant predictor for adaptation to life with chronic pain and the PSS is superior to predicting adaptation to life with chronic pain than reported levels of pain as measured by the McGill Pain Questionnaire.

  11. Fatigue life prediction for a cold worked T316 stainless steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manjoine, M.J.

    1983-01-01

    Permanent damage curves of initiation-life and propagation-life which predict the fatigue life of specimens of a cold-worked type 316 stainless steel under complex strain-range histories were generated by a limited test program. Analysis of the test data showed that fatigue damage is not linear throughout life and that propagation life is longer than initiation-life at high strain ranges but is shorter at low strain ranges. If permanent damage has been initiated by prior history and/or fabrication, propagation to a given life can occur at a lower strain range than that estimated from the fatigue curves for constant CSR. (author) [pt

  12. Energy based prediction models for building acoustics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brunskog, Jonas

    2012-01-01

    In order to reach robust and simplified yet accurate prediction models, energy based principle are commonly used in many fields of acoustics, especially in building acoustics. This includes simple energy flow models, the framework of statistical energy analysis (SEA) as well as more elaborated...... principles as, e.g., wave intensity analysis (WIA). The European standards for building acoustic predictions, the EN 12354 series, are based on energy flow and SEA principles. In the present paper, different energy based prediction models are discussed and critically reviewed. Special attention is placed...... on underlying basic assumptions, such as diffuse fields, high modal overlap, resonant field being dominant, etc., and the consequences of these in terms of limitations in the theory and in the practical use of the models....

  13. Knowledge-Based Systems in Biomedicine and Computational Life Science

    CERN Document Server

    Jain, Lakhmi

    2013-01-01

    This book presents a sample of research on knowledge-based systems in biomedicine and computational life science. The contributions include: ·         personalized stress diagnosis system ·         image analysis system for breast cancer diagnosis ·         analysis of neuronal cell images ·         structure prediction of protein ·         relationship between two mental disorders ·         detection of cardiac abnormalities ·         holistic medicine based treatment ·         analysis of life-science data  

  14. Fuzzy Activity Based Life Cycle Costing For Repairable Equipment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mulubrhan Freselam

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Life-cycle cost (LCC is the much known method used for decision making that considers all costs in the life of a system or equipment. Predicting LCCs is fraught with potential errors, owing to the uncertainty in future events, future costs, interest rates, and even hidden costs. These uncertainties have a direct impact on the decision making. Activity based LCC is used to identify the activities and cost drivers in acquisition, operation and maintenance phase. This activity based LCC is integrated with fuzzy set theory and interval mathematics to model these uncertainties. Day–Stout–Warren (DSW algorithm and the vertex method are then used to evaluate competing alternatives. A case of two pumps (Pump A and Pump B are taken and their LCC is analysed using the developed model. The equivalent annual cost of Pump B is greater than Pump A, which leads the decision maker to choose Pump A over Pump B.

  15. An adaptive-order particle filter for remaining useful life prediction of aviation piston pumps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tongyang LI

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available An accurate estimation of the remaining useful life (RUL not only contributes to an effective application of an aviation piston pump, but also meets the necessity of condition based maintenance (CBM. For the current RUL evaluation methods, a model-based method is inappropriate for the degradation process of an aviation piston pump due to difficulties of modeling, while a data-based method rarely presents high-accuracy prediction in a long period of time. In this work, an adaptive-order particle filter (AOPF prognostic process is proposed aiming at improving long-term prediction accuracy of RUL by combining both kinds of methods. A dynamic model is initialized by a data-driven or empirical method. When a new observation comes, the prior state distribution is approximated by a current model. The order of the current model is updated adaptively by fusing the information of the observation. Monte Carlo simulation is employed for estimating the posterior probability density function of future states of the pump’s degradation. With updating the order number adaptively, the method presents a higher precision in contrast with those of traditional methods. In a case study, the proposed AOPF method is adopted to forecast the degradation status of an aviation piston pump with experimental return oil flow data, and the analytical results show the effectiveness of the proposed AOPF method. Keywords: Adaptive prognosis, Condition based maintenance (CBM, Particle filter (PF, Piston pump, Remaining useful life (RUL

  16. The development of techniques for determining the residual life time prediction on NPP equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonov, Alexander V.; Dagaev, Alexander V.; Volnikov, Ivan S.

    1999-01-01

    The problem of determining the residual life prediction of NPP equipment is presently highly pressing. NPP residual life resources are 30 years, but for particular equipment it is much less. Thus, residual life resource for equipment of control and protection system of NPP unit is 5-10 years. The NPP equipment is expensive and its replacing requires much expense. Hence an urgent problem is to study residual life resources of equipment on the basis of statistic information obtained during operation. Deterministic approach of determining residual life resources for particular equipment is widely known in the literature. Physical and statistical models are also being developed for determining the residual life, e.g. the model (loading-bearing capability). The present work offers the techniques of the residual life determination reasoning from statistic information of functioning objects in the process of operation. To put the techniques into effect it is necessary to have information about the time of operation of a group of objects of the same type, the number of failures; it is desirable to know failure operating time, order of the object replacement and the reason which caused the replacement (failure or planned preventive maintenance). Metrics is based on studying the parameters for the series of failures resulted from real statistic data. Then we can proceed to distribution density of the failure working time. For this purpose the Voltarra's equation of the second order is solved f(t) = ω(t) + ∫ 0 t f(t - τ)ω(τ)dτ. Since statistics of data sampling related to failure is small due to difficulties in solution of Voltaire's equation, the authors offer moderate method of solution for the above equation. After distribution density of the failure working time is determined the calculation of equipment residual life is made by the following formula: T τ (t) 1/P(τ)∫ 0 ∞ P(t)dt. The proposed techniques are realised as the software. In the course of working

  17. Method for estimating capacity and predicting remaining useful life of lithium-ion battery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Chao; Jain, Gaurav; Tamirisa, Prabhakar; Gorka, Tom

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We develop an integrated method for the capacity estimation and RUL prediction. • A state projection scheme is derived for capacity estimation. • The Gauss–Hermite particle filter technique is used for the RUL prediction. • Results with 10 years’ continuous cycling data verify the effectiveness of the method. - Abstract: Reliability of lithium-ion (Li-ion) rechargeable batteries used in implantable medical devices has been recognized as of high importance from a broad range of stakeholders, including medical device manufacturers, regulatory agencies, physicians, and patients. To ensure Li-ion batteries in these devices operate reliably, it is important to be able to assess the capacity of Li-ion battery and predict the remaining useful life (RUL) throughout the whole life-time. This paper presents an integrated method for the capacity estimation and RUL prediction of Li-ion battery used in implantable medical devices. A state projection scheme from the author’s previous study is used for the capacity estimation. Then, based on the capacity estimates, the Gauss–Hermite particle filter technique is used to project the capacity fade to the end-of-service (EOS) value (or the failure limit) for the RUL prediction. Results of 10 years’ continuous cycling test on Li-ion prismatic cells in the lab suggest that the proposed method achieves good accuracy in the capacity estimation and captures the uncertainty in the RUL prediction. Post-explant weekly cycling data obtained from field cells with 4–7 implant years further verify the effectiveness of the proposed method in the capacity estimation

  18. The accuracy of dysphoric and nondepressed groups' predictions of life events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapçi, E G; Cramer, D

    1998-11-01

    The phenomenon of depressive realism was examined in relation to the future prediction of positive and negative life events. A group of dysphoric (n = 20) and nondepressed (n = 38) British undergraduates participated in a prospective study lasting 3 months. Partly consistent with the depressive realism hypotheses, dysphoric participants were more realistic concerning the negative life events they would experience, but they were less realistic concerning the negative life events they would not experience. Although no difference was found for predicting the occurrence of positive life events, dysphoric participants were found to be more realistic concerning positive life events that they would not experience.

  19. Life Prediction for FRP composites with Data Fusion & Machine Learning

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — High-fidelity, probabilistic predictions of damage evolution in fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) composite structures could accelerate development and certification of...

  20. Knowledge-based Fragment Binding Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Grace W.; Altman, Russ B.

    2014-01-01

    Target-based drug discovery must assess many drug-like compounds for potential activity. Focusing on low-molecular-weight compounds (fragments) can dramatically reduce the chemical search space. However, approaches for determining protein-fragment interactions have limitations. Experimental assays are time-consuming, expensive, and not always applicable. At the same time, computational approaches using physics-based methods have limited accuracy. With increasing high-resolution structural data for protein-ligand complexes, there is now an opportunity for data-driven approaches to fragment binding prediction. We present FragFEATURE, a machine learning approach to predict small molecule fragments preferred by a target protein structure. We first create a knowledge base of protein structural environments annotated with the small molecule substructures they bind. These substructures have low-molecular weight and serve as a proxy for fragments. FragFEATURE then compares the structural environments within a target protein to those in the knowledge base to retrieve statistically preferred fragments. It merges information across diverse ligands with shared substructures to generate predictions. Our results demonstrate FragFEATURE's ability to rediscover fragments corresponding to the ligand bound with 74% precision and 82% recall on average. For many protein targets, it identifies high scoring fragments that are substructures of known inhibitors. FragFEATURE thus predicts fragments that can serve as inputs to fragment-based drug design or serve as refinement criteria for creating target-specific compound libraries for experimental or computational screening. PMID:24762971

  1. A Probabilistic Approach to Predict Thermal Fatigue Life for Ball Grid Array Solder Joints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Helin; Wang, Kuisheng

    2011-11-01

    Numerous studies of the reliability of solder joints have been performed. Most life prediction models are limited to a deterministic approach. However, manufacturing induces uncertainty in the geometry parameters of solder joints, and the environmental temperature varies widely due to end-user diversity, creating uncertainties in the reliability of solder joints. In this study, a methodology for accounting for variation in the lifetime prediction for lead-free solder joints of ball grid array packages (PBGA) is demonstrated. The key aspects of the solder joint parameters and the cyclic temperature range related to reliability are involved. Probabilistic solutions of the inelastic strain range and thermal fatigue life based on the Engelmaier model are developed to determine the probability of solder joint failure. The results indicate that the standard deviation increases significantly when more random variations are involved. Using the probabilistic method, the influence of each variable on the thermal fatigue life is quantified. This information can be used to optimize product design and process validation acceptance criteria. The probabilistic approach creates the opportunity to identify the root causes of failed samples from product fatigue tests and field returns. The method can be applied to better understand how variation affects parameters of interest in an electronic package design with area array interconnections.

  2. Degradation model and application in life prediction of rotating-mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Yuhui

    2009-01-01

    The degradation data can provide additional information beyond that provided by the failure observations, both sets of observations need to be considered when doing inference on the statistical parameters of the product and system lifetime distributions. By the degradation model showing the wear out failure, the predicted results of mechanism life is more accurate. Strength is one of the important capabilities of the rotating mechanism. In this paper, the degradation data of strength are described as a stochastic process model. Accelerated tests expose the products to greater environmental stress levels so that we can obtain lifetime and degradation measurements in a more timely fashion. Using the Best Linear Unbiased Estimation (BLUE) Method, the parameters under the degradation path were estimated from the accelerated life test (ALT) data of the rotating mechanism. Based on solving the singularity of degradation equation, at any time the reliability is estimated by the using the strength-stress interference theory. So we can predict the life of the rotating mechanism. (authors)

  3. Predicting Learned Helplessness Based on Personality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maadikhah, Elham; Erfani, Nasrollah

    2014-01-01

    Learned helplessness as a negative motivational state can latently underlie repeated failures and create negative feelings toward the education as well as depression in students and other members of a society. The purpose of this paper is to predict learned helplessness based on students' personality traits. The research is a predictive…

  4. Global life satisfaction predicts ambulatory affect, stress, and cortisol in daily life in working adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, Joshua M; Zawadzki, Matthew J; Juth, Vanessa; Sciamanna, Christopher N

    2017-04-01

    Global life satisfaction has been linked with long-term health advantages, yet how life satisfaction impacts the trajectory of long-term health is unclear. This paper examines one such possible mechanism-that greater life satisfaction confers momentary benefits in daily life that accumulate over time. A community sample of working adults (n = 115) completed a measure of life satisfaction and then three subsequent days of ecological momentary assessment surveys (6 times/day) measuring affect (i.e., emotional valence, arousal), and perceived stress, and also provided salivary cortisol samples. Multilevel models indicated that people with higher (vs. lower) levels of life satisfaction reported better momentary affect, less stress, marginally lower momentary levels and significantly altered diurnal slopes of cortisol. Findings suggest individuals with high global life satisfaction have advantageous daily experiences, providing initial evidence for potential mechanisms through which global life satisfaction may help explain long-term health benefits.

  5. Predicting employment status and subjective quality of life in patients with schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haruo Fujino

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Although impaired social functioning, particularly poor employment status, is a cardinal feature of patients with schizophrenia and leads to decreased quality of life (QOL, few studies have addressed the relationship between these two clinical issues. The aim of this study was to determine whether employment status predicts subjective QOL and to evaluate a model in which functional capacity mediates the relationship between general cognitive performance and employment status. Ninety-three patients with schizophrenia were administered a comprehensive battery of cognitive tests, the UCSD Performance-based Skills Assessment-Brief version (UPSA-B, the Social Functioning Scale (SFS, and the Subjective Quality of Life Scale (SQLS. First, we evaluated a model for predicting the employment/occupation subscale score of the SFS using path analysis, and the model fitted well (χ2 (4 = 3.6, p = 0.46; CFI = 1.0; RMSEA < 0.001, with 90% CIs: 0–0.152. Employment status was predicted by negative symptoms and functional capacity, which was in turn predicted by general cognitive performance. Second, we added subjective QOL to this model. In a final path model, QOL was predicted by negative symptoms and employment status. This model also satisfied good fit criteria (χ2 (7 = 10.3, p = 0.17; CFI = 0.987; RMSEA = 0.072, with 90% CIs: 0–0.159. The UPSA-B and SFS scores were moderately correlated with most measures of cognitive performance. These results support the notion that better employment status enhances subjective QOL in patients with schizophrenia.

  6. A Critical Plane-energy Model for Multiaxial Fatigue Life Prediction of Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Haoyang

    A new critical plane-energy model is proposed in this thesis for multiaxial fatigue life prediction of homogeneous and heterogeneous materials. Brief review of existing methods, especially on the critical plane-based and energy-based methods, are given first. Special focus is on one critical plane approach which has been shown to work for both brittle and ductile metals. The key idea is to automatically change the critical plane orientation with respect to different materials and stress states. One potential drawback of the developed model is that it needs an empirical calibration parameter for non-proportional multiaxial loadings since only the strain terms are used and the out-of-phase hardening cannot be considered. The energy-based model using the critical plane concept is proposed with help of the Mroz-Garud hardening rule to explicitly include the effect of non-proportional hardening under fatigue cyclic loadings. Thus, the empirical calibration for non-proportional loading is not needed since the out-of-phase hardening is naturally included in the stress calculation. The model predictions are compared with experimental data from open literature and it is shown the proposed model can work for both proportional and non-proportional loadings without the empirical calibration. Next, the model is extended for the fatigue analysis of heterogeneous materials integrating with finite element method. Fatigue crack initiation of representative volume of heterogeneous materials is analyzed using the developed critical plane-energy model and special focus is on the microstructure effect on the multiaxial fatigue life predictions. Several conclusions and future work is drawn based on the proposed study.

  7. Personality predicts recurrence of late-life depression.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steunenberg, B.; Beekman, A.T.F.; Deeg, D.J.H.; Kerkhof, A.J.F.M.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To examine the association of personality with recurrence of depression in later life. Method: A subsample of 91 subjects from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA; baseline sample size n = 3107; aged ≥ 55 years) depressed at baseline, who had recovered in the course of three

  8. Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Richard G.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Ersts, Peter J.; Horning, Ned; Fordham, Damien A.; Raxworthy, Christopher J.; Ryu, Hae Yeong; McNees, Jason; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

    2014-03-01

    There is an urgent need to develop effective vulnerability assessments for evaluating the conservation status of species in a changing climate. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for evaluating the vulnerability of species to climate change based on the expectation that established assessments such as the IUCN Red List need revising or superseding in light of the threat that climate change brings. However, although previous studies have identified ecological and life history attributes that characterize declining species or those listed as threatened, no study so far has undertaken a quantitative analysis of the attributes that cause species to be at high risk of extinction specifically due to climate change. We developed a simulation approach based on generic life history types to show here that extinction risk due to climate change can be predicted using a mixture of spatial and demographic variables that can be measured in the present day without the need for complex forecasting models. Most of the variables we found to be important for predicting extinction risk, including occupied area and population size, are already used in species conservation assessments, indicating that present systems may be better able to identify species vulnerable to climate change than previously thought. Therefore, although climate change brings many new conservation challenges, we find that it may not be fundamentally different from other threats in terms of assessing extinction risks.

  9. Highway traffic noise prediction based on GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jianghua; Qin, Qiming

    2014-05-01

    Before building a new road, we need to predict the traffic noise generated by vehicles. Traditional traffic noise prediction methods are based on certain locations and they are not only time-consuming, high cost, but also cannot be visualized. Geographical Information System (GIS) can not only solve the problem of manual data processing, but also can get noise values at any point. The paper selected a road segment from Wenxi to Heyang. According to the geographical overview of the study area and the comparison between several models, we combine the JTG B03-2006 model and the HJ2.4-2009 model to predict the traffic noise depending on the circumstances. Finally, we interpolate the noise values at each prediction point and then generate contours of noise. By overlaying the village data on the noise contour layer, we can get the thematic maps. The use of GIS for road traffic noise prediction greatly facilitates the decision-makers because of GIS spatial analysis function and visualization capabilities. We can clearly see the districts where noise are excessive, and thus it becomes convenient to optimize the road line and take noise reduction measures such as installing sound barriers and relocating villages and so on.

  10. The prediction of reliability and residual life of reactor pressure components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nemec, J.; Antalovsky, S.

    1978-01-01

    The paper deals with the problem of PWR pressure components reliability and residual life evaluation and prediction. A physical model of damage cumulation which serves as a theoretical basis for all considerations presents two major aspects. The first one describes the dependence of the degree of damage in the crack leading-edge in pressure components on the reactor system load-time history, i.e. on the number of transient loads. Both stages, fatigue crack initiation and growth through the wall until the critical length is reached, are investigated. The crack is supposed to initiate at the flaws in a strength weld joint or in the bimetallic weld of the base ferritic steel and the austenitic stainless overlay cladding. The growth rates of developed cracks are analysed in respect to different load-time histories. Important cyclic properties of some steels are derived from the low-cycle fatigue theory. The second aspect is the load-time history-dependent process of precipitation, deformation and radiation aging, characterized entirely by the critical crack-length value mentioned above. The fracture point, defined by the equation ''crack-length=critical value'' and hence the residual life, can be evaluated using this model and verified by in-service inspection. The physical model described is randomized by considering all the parameters of the model as random. Monte Carlo methods are applied and fatigue crack initiation and growth is simulated. This permits evaluation of the reliability and residual life of the component. The distributions of material and load-time history parameters are needed for such simulation. Both the deterministic and computer-simulated probabilistic predictions of reliability and residual life are verified by prior-to-failure sequential testing of data coming from in-service NDT periodical inspections. (author)

  11. Self-Predictions and Depressive Realism in Future Life Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, Todd J.; And Others

    Research has demonstrated that depressed people lack the optimistic bias evidenced by nondepressed persons and that the former may be more realistic in predicting the outcome of future events (depressive realism hypothesis). This study assesses the depressive realism hypothesis by comparing the accuracy of depressed and nondepressed people's…

  12. Predicting the evolution of social networks with life cycle events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sharmeen, F.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a model of social network evolution, to predict and simulate changes in social networks induced by lifecycle events. We argue that social networks change with lifecycle events, and we extend a model of friendship selection to incorporate these dynamics of personal social

  13. Predicting the Remaining Useful Life of Rolling Element Bearings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hooghoudt, Jan Otto; Jantunen, E; Yi, Yang

    2018-01-01

    Condition monitoring of rolling element bearings is of vital importance in order to keep the industrial wheels running. In wind industry this is especially important due to the challenges in practical maintenance. The paper presents an attempt to improve the capability of prediction of remaining...

  14. Fatigue life prediction of pedicle screw for spinal surgery

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Major, Štěpán; Kocour, Vladimír; Cyrus, P.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 35 (2016), s. 379-388 ISSN 1971-8993. [European Conference on Fracture. ECF21. Catania, 20.06.2015-20.06.2015] Institutional support: RVO:68378297 Keywords : pedicle-screw * titan alloy * fatigue life * finite element analysis Subject RIV: JK - Corrosion ; Surface Treatment of Materials http://www.fracturae.com/index.php/fis/article/view/IGF-ESIS.35.43

  15. Predicting quality of work life on nurses' intention to leave.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ya-Wen; Dai, Yu-Tzu; Park, Chang-Gi; McCreary, Linda L

    2013-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between quality of work life (QWL) and nurses' intention to leave their organization (ITLorg). A descriptive cross-sectional survey design was conducted using purposive sampling of 1,283 nurses at seven hospitals in Taiwan. Data were collected from March to June 2012. Three questionnaires, including the Chinese version of the Quality of Nursing Work Life scale (C-QNWL), a questionnaire of intention to leave the organization, and a demographic questionnaire, with two informed consent forms were delivered to the nurses at their workplaces. Descriptive data, Pearson's correlations, and the ordinal regression model were analyzed. Over half (52.5%) of nurses had ITLorg. Seven QWL dimensions were significantly negatively correlated with ITLorg (r = -0.17 to -0.37, p working in a nonteaching hospital. Four of the QWL dimensions--supportive milieu with job security and professional recognition, work arrangement and workload, work or home life balance, and nursing staffing and patient care--were also predictors of ITLorg. Three QWL dimensions were not predictors of ITLorg. This study showed that individual-related variables (being single, having a diploma or lower educational level), a work-related variable (working at a nonteaching hospital), and the four QWL dimensions play a significant role in nurses' ITLorg. After the QWL dimensions were added to the regression, the variance explained by the model more than doubled. To reduce nurses' ITLorg, nursing administrators may offer more focused interventions to improve the supportive milieu with job security and professional recognition, work arrangement and workload, work or home life balance, and nursing staffing and patient care. © 2013 Sigma Theta Tau International.

  16. Dst Prediction Based on Solar Wind Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoon-Kyung Park

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We reevaluate the Burton equation (Burton et al. 1975 of predicting Dst index using high quality hourly solar wind data supplied by the ACE satellite for the period from 1998 to 2006. Sixty magnetic storms with monotonously decreasing main phase are selected. In order to determine the injection term (Q and the decay time (tau of the equation, we examine the relationships between Dst* and VB_s, Delta Dst* and VB_s, and Delta Dst* and Dst* during the magnetic storms. For this analysis, we take into account one hour of the propagation time from the ACE satellite to the magnetopause, and a half hour of the response time of the magnetosphere/ring current to the solar wind forcing. The injection term is found to be Q({nT}/h=-3.56VB_s for VB_s>0.5mV/m and Q({nT}/h=0 for VB_s leq0.5mV/m. The tau (hour is estimated as 0.060 Dst* + 16.65 for Dst*>-175nT and 6.15 hours for Dst* leq -175nT. Based on these empirical relationships, we predict the 60 magnetic storms and find that the correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted Dst* is 0.88. To evaluate the performance of our prediction scheme, the 60 magnetic storms are predicted again using the models by Burton et al. (1975 and O'Brien & McPherron (2000a. The correlation coefficients thus obtained are 0.85, the same value for both of the two models. In this respect, our model is slightly improved over the other two models as far as the correlation coefficients is concerned. Particularly our model does a better job than the other two models in predicting intense magnetic storms (Dst* lesssim -200nT.

  17. Characterizing Cracking and Permanent Deformation; An Attempt for Predicting the End of the Structural Pavement Life

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pramesti, F.P.; Molenaar, A.A.A.; van de Ven, M.F.C.

    2017-01-01

    Durable, therefore sustainable, road needs to attain specific characteristics, among others, resistance to permanent deformation and cracking. Determining the development of both characteristics are important to be able to predict pavement life and performance. In this research, permanent

  18. Study on effect of mean stress on fatigue life prediction of thin film structure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Myung Soo [Ahtti Co., Seongnam (Korea, Republic of); Park, Jun Hyu [Tongmyong University, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jung Yup [Korea Institute of Machinery and Materials, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-15

    This paper describes the effect of mean stress on fatigue life prediction of structure made with thin film. It is well known that the mean stress influences fatigue life prediction of mechanical structure. We investigated a reasonable method for considering mean stress when fatigue strength assessment of micro structure of thin film should be performed. Fatigue tests of smooth specimen of beryllium-copper (BeCu) thin film were performed in ambient air at R = 0.1 with 5 Hz. A micro probe was designed and made with BeCu thin film by the precision press process. Fatigue tests of micro structure were performed with 5 Hz frequency, in ambient air to verify the fatigue life predicted by computer simulation through FE analysis. The fatigue life predicted by the Sa -N curve modified by Goodman method with principal stress through FE analysis shows a more reasonable result than other methods.

  19. Extreme Environment Damage Index and Accumulation Model for CMC Laminate Fatigue Life Prediction, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Materials Research & Design (MR&D) is proposing in the SBIR Phase II an effort to develop a tool for predicting the fatigue life of C/SiC composite...

  20. Study on effect of mean stress on fatigue life prediction of thin film structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Myung Soo; Park, Jun Hyu; Kim, Jung Yup

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes the effect of mean stress on fatigue life prediction of structure made with thin film. It is well known that the mean stress influences fatigue life prediction of mechanical structure. We investigated a reasonable method for considering mean stress when fatigue strength assessment of micro structure of thin film should be performed. Fatigue tests of smooth specimen of beryllium-copper (BeCu) thin film were performed in ambient air at R = 0.1 with 5 Hz. A micro probe was designed and made with BeCu thin film by the precision press process. Fatigue tests of micro structure were performed with 5 Hz frequency, in ambient air to verify the fatigue life predicted by computer simulation through FE analysis. The fatigue life predicted by the Sa -N curve modified by Goodman method with principal stress through FE analysis shows a more reasonable result than other methods

  1. Wavelet-based prediction of oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yousefi, Shahriar; Weinreich, Ilona; Reinarz, Dominik

    2005-01-01

    This paper illustrates an application of wavelets as a possible vehicle for investigating the issue of market efficiency in futures markets for oil. The paper provides a short introduction to the wavelets and a few interesting wavelet-based contributions in economics and finance are briefly reviewed. A wavelet-based prediction procedure is introduced and market data on crude oil is used to provide forecasts over different forecasting horizons. The results are compared with data from futures markets for oil and the relative performance of this procedure is used to investigate whether futures markets are efficiently priced

  2. A new approach to predict the fish fillet shelf-life in presence of natural preservative agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Giufffrida

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Three data sets concerning the behaviour of spoilage flora of fillets treated with natural preservative substances (NPS were used to construct a new kind of mathematical predictive model. This model, unlike other ones, allows expressing the antibacterial effect of the NPS separately from the prediction of the growth rate. This approach, based on the introduction of a parameter into the predictive primary model, produced a good fitting of observed data and allowed characterising quantitatively the increase of shelf-life of fillets.

  3. A Hybrid Prognostic Approach for Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Lithium-Ion Batteries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-An Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Lithium-ion battery is a core component of many systems such as satellite, spacecraft, and electric vehicles and its failure can lead to reduced capability, downtime, and even catastrophic breakdowns. Remaining useful life (RUL prediction of lithium-ion batteries before the future failure event is extremely crucial for proactive maintenance/safety actions. This study proposes a hybrid prognostic approach that can predict the RUL of degraded lithium-ion batteries using physical laws and data-driven modeling simultaneously. In this hybrid prognostic approach, the relevant vectors obtained with the selective kernel ensemble-based relevance vector machine (RVM learning algorithm are fitted to the physical degradation model, which is then extrapolated to failure threshold for estimating the RUL of the lithium-ion battery of interest. The experimental results indicated that the proposed hybrid prognostic approach can accurately predict the RUL of degraded lithium-ion batteries. Empirical comparisons show that the proposed hybrid prognostic approach using the selective kernel ensemble-based RVM learning algorithm performs better than the hybrid prognostic approaches using the popular learning algorithms of feedforward artificial neural networks (ANNs like the conventional backpropagation (BP algorithm and support vector machines (SVMs. In addition, an investigation is also conducted to identify the effects of RVM learning algorithm on the proposed hybrid prognostic approach.

  4. Risk-informed prediction of feeder end of life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jyrkama, M.; Pandey, M.

    2011-01-01

    The operating life of feeder piping is negatively impacted by flow accelerated corrosion (FAC). In this study, an assessment of a large set of inspection data reveals that FAC in feeders is a relatively stationary process, with variability only at the local scale. Given the added uncertainty from inspection coverage, a new method for estimating the thinning rate and feeder EOL is developed using a probabilistic approach. The results of the study illustrate the benefits of the methodology in supporting risk-informed decision making at the station by quantifying the present and incremental risk in the feeder system over time. (author)

  5. Risk-informed prediction of feeder end of life

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jyrkama, M.; Pandey, M. [Univ. of Waterloo, Ontario (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    The operating life of feeder piping is negatively impacted by flow accelerated corrosion (FAC). In this study, an assessment of a large set of inspection data reveals that FAC in feeders is a relatively stationary process, with variability only at the local scale. Given the added uncertainty from inspection coverage, a new method for estimating the thinning rate and feeder EOL is developed using a probabilistic approach. The results of the study illustrate the benefits of the methodology in supporting risk-informed decision making at the station by quantifying the present and incremental risk in the feeder system over time. (author)

  6. Machine learning approaches for integrating clinical and imaging features in late-life depression classification and response prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Meenal J; Andreescu, Carmen; Price, Julie C; Edelman, Kathryn L; Reynolds, Charles F; Aizenstein, Howard J

    2015-10-01

    Currently, depression diagnosis relies primarily on behavioral symptoms and signs, and treatment is guided by trial and error instead of evaluating associated underlying brain characteristics. Unlike past studies, we attempted to estimate accurate prediction models for late-life depression diagnosis and treatment response using multiple machine learning methods with inputs of multi-modal imaging and non-imaging whole brain and network-based features. Late-life depression patients (medicated post-recruitment) (n = 33) and older non-depressed individuals (n = 35) were recruited. Their demographics and cognitive ability scores were recorded, and brain characteristics were acquired using multi-modal magnetic resonance imaging pretreatment. Linear and nonlinear learning methods were tested for estimating accurate prediction models. A learning method called alternating decision trees estimated the most accurate prediction models for late-life depression diagnosis (87.27% accuracy) and treatment response (89.47% accuracy). The diagnosis model included measures of age, Mini-mental state examination score, and structural imaging (e.g. whole brain atrophy and global white mater hyperintensity burden). The treatment response model included measures of structural and functional connectivity. Combinations of multi-modal imaging and/or non-imaging measures may help better predict late-life depression diagnosis and treatment response. As a preliminary observation, we speculate that the results may also suggest that different underlying brain characteristics defined by multi-modal imaging measures-rather than region-based differences-are associated with depression versus depression recovery because to our knowledge this is the first depression study to accurately predict both using the same approach. These findings may help better understand late-life depression and identify preliminary steps toward personalized late-life depression treatment. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley

  7. A review on fatigue life prediction methods for anti-vibration rubber materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoli WANG

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Anti-vibration rubber, because of its superior elasticity, plasticity, waterproof and trapping characteristics, is widely used in the automotive industry, national defense, construction and other fields. The theory and technology of predicting fatigue life is of great significance to improve the durability design and manufacturing of anti-vibration rubber products. According to the characteristics of the anti-vibration rubber products in service, the technical difficulties for analyzing fatigue properties of anti-vibration rubber materials are pointed out. The research progress of the fatigue properties of rubber materials is reviewed from three angles including methods of fatigue crack initiation, fatigue crack propagation and fatigue damage accumulation. It is put forward that some nonlinear characteristics of rubber under fatigue loading, including the Mullins effect, permanent deformation and cyclic stress softening, should be considered in the further study of rubber materials. Meanwhile, it is indicated that the fatigue damage accumulation method based on continuum damage mechanics might be more appropriate to solve fatigue damage and life prediction problems for complex rubber materials and structures under fatigue loading.

  8. Structural health monitoring for fatigue life prediction of orthotropic brdige decks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pijpers, R.J.M.; Pahlavan, P.L.; Paulissen, J.H.; Hakkesteegt, H.C.; Jansen, T.H.

    2013-01-01

    Infrastructure asset owners are more and more confronted with structures reaching the end of their structural life. Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) systems should provide up-to-date information about the actual condition, as well predict the structural life and required maintenance of the assets

  9. Academic Life Satisfaction Scale (ALSS) and Its Effectiveness in Predicting Academic Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, P.K. Sudheesh; P., Dileep

    2006-01-01

    This study is undertaken to examine the effectiveness of a newly constructed psychometric instrument to assess Academic Life Satisfaction along with the components of Emotional Intelligence. The Academic Life Satisfaction Scale is used to predict the scholastic achievement as an index of Academic success. The investigators found that Academic Life…

  10. Aluminum 7075-T6 fatigue data generation and probabilistic life prediction formulation

    OpenAIRE

    Kemna, John G.

    1998-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. The life extension of aging fleet aircraft requires an assessment of the safe-life remaining after refurbishment. Risk can be estimated by conventional deterministic fatigue analysis coupled with a subjective factor of safety. Alternatively, risk can be quantitatively and objectively predicted by probabilistic analysis. In this investigation, a general probabilistic life formulation is specialized for constant amplitude, fully reverse...

  11. Nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion with multiple hidden states for remaining useful life prediction of rechargeable batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dong; Zhao, Yang; Yang, Fangfang; Tsui, Kwok-Leung

    2017-09-01

    Brownian motion with adaptive drift has attracted much attention in prognostics because its first hitting time is highly relevant to remaining useful life prediction and it follows the inverse Gaussian distribution. Besides linear degradation modeling, nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion has been developed to model nonlinear degradation. Moreover, the first hitting time distribution of the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion has been approximated by time-space transformation. In the previous studies, the drift coefficient is the only hidden state used in state space modeling of the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion. Besides the drift coefficient, parameters of a nonlinear function used in the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion should be treated as additional hidden states of state space modeling to make the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion more flexible. In this paper, a prognostic method based on nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion with multiple hidden states is proposed and then it is applied to predict remaining useful life of rechargeable batteries. 26 sets of rechargeable battery degradation samples are analyzed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed prognostic method. Moreover, some comparisons with a standard particle filter based prognostic method, a spherical cubature particle filter based prognostic method and two classic Bayesian prognostic methods are conducted to highlight the superiority of the proposed prognostic method. Results show that the proposed prognostic method has lower average prediction errors than the particle filter based prognostic methods and the classic Bayesian prognostic methods for battery remaining useful life prediction.

  12. Link prediction based on nonequilibrium cooperation effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lanxi; Zhu, Xuzhen; Tian, Hui

    2018-04-01

    Link prediction in complex networks has become a common focus of many researchers. But most existing methods concentrate on neighbors, and rarely consider degree heterogeneity of two endpoints. Node degree represents the importance or status of endpoints. We describe the large-degree heterogeneity as the nonequilibrium between nodes. This nonequilibrium facilitates a stable cooperation between endpoints, so that two endpoints with large-degree heterogeneity tend to connect stably. We name such a phenomenon as the nonequilibrium cooperation effect. Therefore, this paper proposes a link prediction method based on the nonequilibrium cooperation effect to improve accuracy. Theoretical analysis will be processed in advance, and at the end, experiments will be performed in 12 real-world networks to compare the mainstream methods with our indices in the network through numerical analysis.

  13. Testing and Life Prediction for Composite Rotor Hub Flexbeams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murri, Gretchen B.

    2004-01-01

    A summary of several studies of delamination in tapered composite laminates with internal ply-drops is presented. Initial studies used 2D FE models to calculate interlaminar stresses at the ply-ending locations in linear tapered laminates under tension loading. Strain energy release rates for delamination in these laminates indicated that delamination would likely start at the juncture of the tapered and thin regions and grow unstably in both directions. Tests of glass/epoxy and graphite/epoxy linear tapered laminates under axial tension delaminated as predicted. Nonlinear tapered specimens were cut from a full-size helicopter rotor hub and were tested under combined constant axial tension and cyclic transverse bending loading to simulate the loading experienced by a rotorhub flexbeam in flight. For all the tested specimens, delamination began at the tip of the outermost dropped ply group and grew first toward the tapered region. A 2D FE model was created that duplicated the test flexbeam layup, geometry, and loading. Surface strains calculated by the model agreed very closely with the measured surface strains in the specimens. The delamination patterns observed in the tests were simulated in the model by releasing pairs of MPCs along those interfaces. Strain energy release rates associated with the delamination growth were calculated for several configurations and using two different FE analysis codes. Calculations from the codes agreed very closely. The strain energy release rate results were used with material characterization data to predict fatigue delamination onset lives for nonlinear tapered flexbeams with two different ply-dropping schemes. The predicted curves agreed well with the test data for each case studied.

  14. Prediction of packaging seal life using thermoanalytical techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nigrey, P.J.

    1997-11-01

    In this study, Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) has been used to study silicone, Viton and Ethylene Propylene (EPDM) rubber. The studies have shown that TGA accurately predicts the relative order of thermo-oxidative stability of these three materials from the calculated activation energies. As expected, the greatest thermal stability was found in silicone rubber followed by Viton and EPDM rubber. The calculated lifetimes for these materials were in relatively close agreement with published values. The preliminary results also accurately reflect decreased thermal stability and lifetime for EPDM rubber exposed to radiation and chemicals. These results suggest TGA provides a rapid method to evaluate material stability

  15. A naive Bayes model for robust remaining useful life prediction of lithium-ion battery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ng, Selina S.Y.; Xing, Yinjiao; Tsui, Kwok L.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Robustness of RUL predictions for lithium-ion batteries is analyzed quantitatively. • RUL predictions of the same battery over cycle life are evaluated. • RUL predictions of batteries over different operating conditions are evaluated. • Naive Bayes (NB) is proposed for predictions under constant discharge environments. • Its robustness and accuracy are compared with that of support vector machine (SVM). - Abstract: Online state-of-health (SoH) estimation and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is a critical problem in battery health management. This paper studies the modeling of battery degradation under different usage conditions and ambient temperatures, which is seldom considered in the literature. Li-ion battery RUL prediction under constant operating conditions at different values of ambient temperature and discharge current are considered. A naive Bayes (NB) model is proposed for RUL prediction of batteries under different operating conditions. It is shown in this analysis that under constant discharge environments, the RUL of Li-ion batteries can be predicted with the NB method, irrespective of the exact values of the operating conditions. The case study shows that the NB generates stable and competitive prediction performance over that of the support vector machine (SVM). This also suggests that, while it is well known that the environmental conditions have big impact on the degradation trend, it is the changes in operating conditions of a Li-ion battery over cycle life that makes the Li-ion battery degradation and RUL prediction even more difficult

  16. Life prediction study of reactor pressure vessel as essential technical foundation for plant life extension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakajima, H.; Nakajima, N.; Kondo, T.

    1987-01-01

    The life of a LWR plant is determined essentially by the limit of reliable performance of the components which are difficult to replace without high economic and/or safety risks. Typical of such a component is the reactor pressure vessel (RPV). The engineering life of a RPV of a given quality of steel is considered to be a complex function of factors such as the resistance to fracture, which has deteriorated due to neutron irradiation and thermal aging, and generation of surface flaws by environmental effects such as corrosion and their growth under operational load that varies during steady state operation and transients. In an attempt to evaluate the engineering life of a RPV of a LWR, a preliminary survey was made by applying a set of knowledge accumulated primarily in the field of subcritical crack growth behavior of RPV steels in reactor water environments. The major conclusions drawn are: (1) the life of a RPV is dependent on the quality of steel used, particularly with respect to any minor impurities it contains. (2) The issue of plant life extension in RPV aspect is found to be optimistic for cases where the steels used satisfy a reasonable level of quality control. (3) The importance of providing sound scientific foundation is stressed for the implementation of a practicable life extension scheme: this can be established through intensified studies of flaw growth and fracture behaviours in well defined testings under reasonably simulated service conditions

  17. Prediction of cladding life in waste package environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCoy, J.K.; Doering, T.W.

    1994-01-01

    Fuel cladding can potentially provide longer containment or slower release of radionuclides from spent fuel after geologic disposal. To predict the amount of benefit that cladding can provide, we surveyed degradation modes and developed a model for creep rupture by diffusion-controlled cavity growth, the mechanism that several authors have concluded is the most important. In this mechanism, voids nucleate on the grain boundaries and grow by diffusion of vacancies along the grain boundaries to the voids. When a certain fraction of the grain boundary area is covered with voids, the material fails. An analytic expression for cladding lifetime is developed. Besides materials constants, the predicted lifetime depends on the temperature history, the hoop stress in the cladding, the spacing between void nuclei, and the micro-structure. The inclusion of microstructure is a significant new feature of the model; this feature is used to help avoid excessive conservatism. The model is applied in a sample calculation for disposal of spent fuel, and the practice of using temperature limits to evaluate repository designs is examined

  18. Gas Generation in Radioactive Wastes - MAGGAS Predictive Life Cycle Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Streatfield, R.E.; Hebditch, D.J.; Swift, B.T.; Hoch, A.R.; Constable, M.

    2006-01-01

    Gases may form from radioactive waste in quantities posing different potential hazards throughout the waste package life cycle. The latter includes surface storage, transport, placing in an operating repository, storage in the repository prior to backfill, closure and the post-closure stage. Potentially hazardous situations involving gas include fire, flood, dropped packages, blocked package vents and disruption to a sealed repository. The MAGGAS (Magnox Gas generation) model was developed to assess gas formation for safety assessments during all stages of the waste package life cycle. This is a requirement of the U.K. regulatory authorities and Nirex and progress in this context is discussed. The processes represented in the model include: Corrosion, microbial degradation, radiolysis, solid-state diffusion, chemico-physical degradation and pressurisation. The calculation was split into three time periods. First the 'aerobic phase' is used to model the periods of surface storage, transport and repository operations including storage in the repository prior to backfill. The second and third periods were designated 'anaerobic phase 1' and 'anaerobic phase 2' and used to model the waste packages in the post-closure phase of the repository. The various significant gas production processes are modeled in each phase. MAGGAS (currently Version 8) is mounted on an Excel spreadsheet for ease of use and speed, has 22 worksheets and is operated routinely for assessing waste packages (e.g. for ventilation of stores and pressurisation of containers). Ten operational and decommissioning generic nuclear power station waste streams were defined as initial inputs, which included ion exchange materials, sludges and concentrates, fuel element debris, graphite debris, activated components, contaminated items, desiccants and catalysts. (authors)

  19. Performance reliability prediction for thermal aging based on kalman filtering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren Shuhong; Wen Zhenhua; Xue Fei; Zhao Wensheng

    2015-01-01

    The performance reliability of the nuclear power plant main pipeline that failed due to thermal aging was studied by the performance degradation theory. Firstly, through the data obtained from the accelerated thermal aging experiments, the degradation process of the impact strength and fracture toughness of austenitic stainless steel material of the main pipeline was analyzed. The time-varying performance degradation model based on the state space method was built, and the performance trends were predicted by using Kalman filtering. Then, the multi-parameter and real-time performance reliability prediction model for the main pipeline thermal aging was developed by considering the correlation between the impact properties and fracture toughness, and by using the stochastic process theory. Thus, the thermal aging performance reliability and reliability life of the main pipeline with multi-parameter were obtained, which provides the scientific basis for the optimization management of the aging maintenance decision making for nuclear power plant main pipelines. (authors)

  20. TWT transmitter fault prediction based on ANFIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Mengyan; Li, Junshan; Li, Shuangshuang; Wang, Wenqing; Li, Fen

    2017-11-01

    Fault prediction is an important component of health management, and plays an important role in the reliability guarantee of complex electronic equipments. Transmitter is a unit with high failure rate. The cathode performance of TWT is a common fault of transmitter. In this dissertation, a model based on a set of key parameters of TWT is proposed. By choosing proper parameters and applying adaptive neural network training model, this method, combined with analytic hierarchy process (AHP), has a certain reference value for the overall health judgment of TWT transmitters.

  1. Fatigue Life Prediction of Self-Piercing Rivet Joints Between Magnesium and Aluminum Alloys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kang Hong-Tae

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Various light materials including aluminum alloys and magnesium alloys are being used to reduce the weight of vehicle structures. Joining of dissimilar materials is always a challenging task to construct a solid structure. Self-piercing rivet (SPR joint is one of various joining methods for dissimilar materials. Front shock tower structures were constructed with magnesium alloy (AM60 joined to aluminum alloy (Al6082 by SPR joints. To evaluate the durability performance of the SPR joints in the structures, fatigue tests of the front shock tower structures were conducted with constant amplitude loadings. Furthermore, this study investigated fatigue life prediction method of SPR joints and compared the fatigue life prediction results with that of experimental results. For fatigue life prediction of the SPR joints in the front shock tower structures, lap-shear and cross-tension specimens of SPR joint were constructed and tested to characterize the fatigue properties of the SPR joint. Then, the SPR joint was represented with area contact method (ACM in finite element (FE models. The load-life curves of the lap-shear and cross-tension specimens were converted to a structural stress-life (S-N curve of the SPR joints. The S-N curve was used to predict fatigue life of SPR joints in the front shock tower structures. The test results and the prediction results were well correlated.

  2. "Engage" therapy: Prediction of change of late-life major depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexopoulos, George S; O'Neil, Robert; Banerjee, Samprit; Raue, Patrick J; Victoria, Lindsay W; Bress, Jennifer N; Pollari, Cristina; Arean, Patricia A

    2017-10-15

    Engage grew out of the need for streamlined psychotherapies that can be accurately used by community therapists in late-life depression. Engage was based on the view that dysfunction of reward networks is the principal mechanism mediating depressive symptoms. Accordingly, Engage uses "reward exposure" (exposure to meaningful activities) and assumes that repeated activation of reward networks will normalize these systems. This study examined whether change in a behavioral activation scale, an index of reward system function, predicts change in depressive symptomatology. The participants (N = 48) were older adults with major depression treated with 9 weekly sessions of Engage and assessed 27 weeks after treatment. Depression was assessed with the 24-item Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAM-D) and behavioral activation with the four subscales of Behavioral Activation for Depression Scale (activation, avoidance/rumination, work impairment, social impairment) at baseline, 6 weeks (mid-treatment), 9 weeks (end of treatment), and 36 weeks. Change only in the Activation subscale during successive periods of assessment predicted depression severity (HAM-D) at the end of each period (F 1, 47 = 21.05, psocial support. Change in behavioral activation predicts improvement of depressive symptoms and signs in depressed older adults treated with Engage. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  3. Probabilistic Modeling and Simulation of Metal Fatigue Life Prediction

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Heffern, Thomas

    2002-01-01

    ...% FLE The work of this thesis was to investigate the probability distributions of test data taken for aluminum 7050-T745 1, and to attempt to develop a probability based model from the variation...

  4. Comparing Structural Identification Methodologies for Fatigue Life Prediction of a Highway Bridge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sai G. S. Pai

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate measurement-data interpretation leads to increased understanding of structural behavior and enhanced asset-management decision making. In this paper, four data-interpretation methodologies, residual minimization, traditional Bayesian model updating, modified Bayesian model updating (with an L∞-norm-based Gaussian likelihood function, and error-domain model falsification (EDMF, a method that rejects models that have unlikely differences between predictions and measurements, are compared. In the modified Bayesian model updating methodology, a correction is used in the likelihood function to account for the effect of a finite number of measurements on posterior probability–density functions. The application of these data-interpretation methodologies for condition assessment and fatigue life prediction is illustrated on a highway steel–concrete composite bridge having four spans with a total length of 219 m. A detailed 3D finite-element plate and beam model of the bridge and weigh-in-motion data are used to obtain the time–stress response at a fatigue critical location along the bridge span. The time–stress response, presented as a histogram, is compared to measured strain responses either to update prior knowledge of model parameters using residual minimization and Bayesian methodologies or to obtain candidate model instances using the EDMF methodology. It is concluded that the EDMF and modified Bayesian model updating methodologies provide robust prediction of fatigue life compared with residual minimization and traditional Bayesian model updating in the presence of correlated non-Gaussian uncertainty. EDMF has additional advantages due to ease of understanding and applicability for practicing engineers, thus enabling incremental asset-management decision making over long service lives. Finally, parallel implementations of EDMF using grid sampling have lower computations times than implementations using adaptive sampling.

  5. Prediction of multiaxial fatigue life for notched specimens of titanium alloy TC4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Z. R.; Li, Z. X. [Southeast University, Nanjing (China); Hu, X. T.; Song, Y. D. [Nanjing University, Nanjing (China)

    2016-05-15

    Both the proportional and nonproportional multiaxial fatigue tests were conducted on two kinds of notched specimens of titanium alloy TC4. The multiaxial fatigue critical area of notched specimen is considered as the location experiencing the maximum damage. It is unsatisfactory to predict the multiaxial fatigue life with the local stress and strain in the fatigue critical area. The critical distance concepts are employed in the multiaxial life prediction method for notched specimens. The proposed method was checked by the test data of TC4 notched specimens. The prediction results are almost within a factor of three scatter band of the test results.

  6. Development of laboratory acceleration test method for service life prediction of concrete structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, M. S.; Song, Y. C.; Bang, K. S.; Lee, J. S.; Kim, D. K.

    1999-01-01

    Service life prediction of nuclear power plants depends on the application of history of structures, field inspection and test, the development of laboratory acceleration tests, their analysis method and predictive model. In this study, laboratory acceleration test method for service life prediction of concrete structures and application of experimental test results are introduced. This study is concerned with environmental condition of concrete structures and is to develop the acceleration test method for durability factors of concrete structures e.g. carbonation, sulfate attack, freeze-thaw cycles and shrinkage-expansion etc

  7. SOFT COMPUTING SINGLE HIDDEN LAYER MODELS FOR SHELF LIFE PREDICTION OF BURFI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumit Goyal

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Burfi is an extremely popular sweetmeat, which is prepared by desiccating the standardized water buffalo milk. Soft computing feedforward single layer models were developed for predicting the shelf life of burfi stored at 30g.C. The data of the product relating to moisture, titratable acidity, free fatty acids, tyrosine, and peroxide value were used as input variables, and the overall acceptability score as output variable. The results showed excellent agreement between the experimental and the predicted data, suggesting that the developed soft computing model can alternatively be used for predicting the shelf life of burfi.

  8. Ageing and life prediction of cast duplex stainless steel components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, H.M.

    1992-01-01

    Cast duplex stainless steels, used extensively in nuclear, chemical and petroleum industries because of higher strength, better weldability, higher resistance to stress corrosion cracking, and soundness of casting, are susceptible to thermal aging embrittlement during service at temperatures as low as ∼250 o C. Recent advances in understanding the aging mechanisms, kinetics, and mechanical properties are presented, with emphasis on application of the material in safety-significant components in a nuclear reactor. Aging embrittlement is primarily due to spinodal decomposition of ferrite involving segregation of Fe, Cr, and Ni, and precipitation of M 23 C 6 on ferrite-austenite boundaries or in ferrite. Aging kinetics are strongly influenced by synergistic effects of other metallurgical reactions that occur in parallel with the spinodal decomposition, i.e. clustering of Ni, Mo, and Si and G-phase precipitation in ferrite. A number of methods are outlined for estimating end-of-life aging, depending on several factors such as degree of permissible conservatism, availability of component archive material, and methods of estimating and verifying the activation energy of aging. (Author)

  9. Condition Assessment and End-of-Life Prediction System for Electric Machines and Their Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parlos, Alexander G.; Toliyat, Hamid A.

    2005-01-01

    An end-of-life prediction system developed for electric machines and their loads could be used in integrated vehicle health monitoring at NASA and in other government agencies. This system will provide on-line, real-time condition assessment and end-of-life prediction of electric machines (e.g., motors, generators) and/or their loads of mechanically coupled machinery (e.g., pumps, fans, compressors, turbines, conveyor belts, magnetic levitation trains, and others). In long-duration space flight, the ability to predict the lifetime of machinery could spell the difference between mission success or failure. Therefore, the system described here may be of inestimable value to the U.S. space program. The system will provide continuous monitoring for on-line condition assessment and end-of-life prediction as opposed to the current off-line diagnoses.

  10. Remaining life prediction of I and C cables for reliability assessment of NPP systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santhosh, T.V.; Ghosh, A.K.; Fernandes, B.G.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A framework for time dependent reliability prediction of I and C cables for use in PSA of NPP has been developed using stress–strength interference theory. ► The proposed methodology has been illustrated with the accelerated thermal aging data on a typical XLPE cable. ► The behavior of insulation resistance when the degradation process is linear or exponential has also been modeled. ► The reliability index or probability of failure obtained from this approach can be used in system reliability evaluation to account for cable aging for PSA of NPP. - Abstract: Instrumentation and control (I and C) cables are one of the most important components in nuclear power plants (NPPs) because they provide power to safety-related equipment and also to transmit signals to and from various controllers to perform safety operations. I and C cables in NPP are subjected to a variety of aging and degradation stressors that can produce immediate degradation or aging-related mechanisms causing the degradation of cable components over time. Although, there exits several life estimation techniques, currently there is no any standard methodology or an approach toward estimating the time dependent reliability of I and C cables that can be directly used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) applications. Hence, the objective of this study is to develop an approach to estimate and confirm the continued acceptable margin in cable insulation life over time subjected to aging. This paper presents a framework based on the structural reliability theory to quantify the life time of I and C cable subjecting to thermal aging. Since cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) cables are extensively being used in Indian NPPs, the remaining life time evaluations have been carried out for a typical XLPE cable. However, the methodology can be extended to other cables such as polyvinyl chloride (PVC), ethylene propylene rubber (EPR), etc.

  11. Bayesian techniques for fatigue life prediction and for inference in linear time dependent PDEs

    KAUST Repository

    Scavino, Marco

    2016-01-08

    In this talk we introduce first the main characteristics of a systematic statistical approach to model calibration, model selection and model ranking when stress-life data are drawn from a collection of records of fatigue experiments. Focusing on Bayesian prediction assessment, we consider fatigue-limit models and random fatigue-limit models under different a priori assumptions. In the second part of the talk, we present a hierarchical Bayesian technique for the inference of the coefficients of time dependent linear PDEs, under the assumption that noisy measurements are available in both the interior of a domain of interest and from boundary conditions. We present a computational technique based on the marginalization of the contribution of the boundary parameters and apply it to inverse heat conduction problems.

  12. Prediction method for cavitation erosion based on measurement of bubble collapse impact loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hattori, S; Hirose, T; Sugiyama, K

    2009-01-01

    The prediction of cavitation erosion rates is important in order to evaluate the exact life of components. The measurement of impact loads in bubble collapses helps to predict the life under cavitation erosion. In this study, we carried out erosion tests and the measurements of impact loads in bubble collapses with a vibratory apparatus. We evaluated the incubation period based on a cumulative damage rule by measuring the impact loads of cavitation acting on the specimen surface and by using the 'constant impact load - number of impact loads curve' similar to the modified Miner's rule which is employed for fatigue life prediction. We found that the parameter Σ(F i α xn i ) (F i : impact load, n i : number of impacts and α: constant) is suitable for the evaluation of the erosion life. Moreover, we propose a new method that can predict the incubation period under various cavitation conditions.

  13. A Combined High and Low Cycle Fatigue Model for Life Prediction of Turbine Blades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shun-Peng Zhu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Combined high and low cycle fatigue (CCF generally induces the failure of aircraft gas turbine attachments. Based on the aero-engine load spectrum, accurate assessment of fatigue damage due to the interaction of high cycle fatigue (HCF resulting from high frequency vibrations and low cycle fatigue (LCF from ground-air-ground engine cycles is of critical importance for ensuring structural integrity of engine components, like turbine blades. In this paper, the influence of combined damage accumulation on the expected CCF life are investigated for turbine blades. The CCF behavior of a turbine blade is usually studied by testing with four load-controlled parameters, including high cycle stress amplitude and frequency, and low cycle stress amplitude and frequency. According to this, a new damage accumulation model is proposed based on Miner’s rule to consider the coupled damage due to HCF-LCF interaction by introducing the four load parameters. Five experimental datasets of turbine blade alloys and turbine blades were introduced for model validation and comparison between the proposed Miner, Manson-Halford, and Trufyakov-Kovalchuk models. Results show that the proposed model provides more accurate predictions than others with lower mean and standard deviation values of model prediction errors.

  14. Spatio-temporal dynamics of growth and survival of Lesser Sandeel early life-stages in the North Sea: Predictions from a coupled individual-based and hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gurkan, Zeren; Christensen, Asbjørn; Maar, Marie

    2013-01-01

    Accounting for the individual variability and regional variations are important when predicting recruitment in fish species. Spatially explicit descriptions for recruitment in sandeels are necessary and sandeel growth and survival depend locally on zooplankton prey. We investigate the responses o...

  15. A case study of remaining storage life prediction using stochastic filtering with the influence of condition monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Zhaoqiang; Hu, Changhua; Wang, Wenbin; Zhou, Zhijie; Si, Xiaosheng

    2014-01-01

    Some systems may spend most of their time in storage, but once needed, must be fully functional. Slow degradation occurs when the system is in storage, so to ensure the functionality of these systems, condition monitoring is usually conducted periodically to check the condition of the system. However, taking the condition monitoring data may require putting the system under real testing situation which may accelerate the degradation, and therefore, shorten the storage life of the system. This paper presents a case study of condition-based remaining storage life prediction for gyros in the inertial navigation system on the basis of the condition monitoring data and the influence of the condition monitoring data taking process. A stochastic-filtering-based degradation model is developed to incorporate both into the prediction of the remaining storage life distribution. This makes the predicted remaining storage life depend on not only the condition monitoring data but also the testing process of taking the condition monitoring data, which the existing prognostic techniques and algorithms did not consider. The presented model is fitted to the real condition monitoring data of gyros testing using the maximum likelihood estimation method for parameter estimation. Comparisons are made with the model without considering the process of taking the condition monitoring data, and the results clearly demonstrate the superiority of the newly proposed model

  16. Longitudinal Prediction of Quality-of-Life Scores and Locomotion in Individuals With Traumatic Spinal Cord Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiremath, Shivayogi V; Hogaboom, Nathan S; Roscher, Melissa R; Worobey, Lynn A; Oyster, Michelle L; Boninger, Michael L

    2017-12-01

    To examine (1) differences in quality-of-life scores for groups based on transitions in locomotion status at 1, 5, and 10 years postdischarge in a sample of people with spinal cord injury (SCI); and (2) whether demographic factors and transitions in locomotion status can predict quality-of-life measures at these time points. Retrospective case study of the National SCI Database. Model SCI Systems Centers. Individuals with SCI (N=10,190) from 21 SCI Model Systems Centers, identified through the National SCI Model Systems Centers database between the years 1985 and 2012. Subjects had FIM (locomotion mode) data at discharge and at least 1 of the following: 1, 5, or 10 years postdischarge. Not applicable. FIM-locomotion mode; Severity of Depression Scale; Satisfaction With Life Scale; and Craig Handicap Assessment and Reporting Technique. Participants who transitioned from ambulation to wheelchair use reported lower participation and life satisfaction, and higher depression levels (P.05) or life satisfaction (P>.05) compared with those who transitioned from wheelchair to ambulation. Demographic factors and locomotion transitions predicted quality-of-life scores at all time points (P<.05). The results of this study indicate that transitioning from ambulation to wheelchair use can negatively impact psychosocial health 10 years after SCI. Clinicians should be aware of this when deciding on ambulation training. Further work to characterize who may be at risk for these transitions is needed. Copyright © 2017 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. LCF life prediction for waspaloy in the creep-fatigue interaction regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeom, Jong Taek; Park, Nho Kwang

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes the empirical rule of strain rate modified linear accumulation of creep damage(SRM rule) for Low-Cycle Fatigue(LCF) life prediction of Waspaloy in the creep-fatigue interaction regime and Chaboche type unified viscoplastic model predicting the stress-strain response in various cyclic loading conditions. The comparison of the experimental data and the predictions for strain controlled LCF tests carried out for various strain ranges at 600 .deg. C and 650 .deg. C was made. Chaboche type unified viscoplastic model described efficiently the inelastic deformation behavior during LCF tests. Crack-initiation lifting method to predict the material life was investigated with Strain Rate Modification(SRM) rule. The application of SRM rule to LCF tests on Waspaloy indicated a good agreement between measured and predicted cycles to failure

  18. Creep-fatigue life prediction method using Diercks equation for Cr-Mo steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sonoya, Keiji; Nonaka, Isamu; Kitagawa, Masaki

    1990-01-01

    For dealing with the situation that creep-fatigue life properties of materials do not exist, a development of the simple method to predict creep-fatigue life properties is necessary. A method to predict the creep-fatigue life properties of Cr-Mo steels is proposed on the basis of D. Diercks equation which correlates the creep-fatigue lifes of SUS 304 steels under various temperatures, strain ranges, strain rates and hold times. The accuracy of the proposed method was compared with that of the existing methods. The following results were obtained. (1) Fatigue strength and creep rupture strength of Cr-Mo steel are different from those of SUS 304 steel. Therefore in order to apply Diercks equation to creep-fatigue prediction for Cr-Mo steel, the difference of fatigue strength was found to be corrected by fatigue life ratio of both steels and the difference of creep rupture strength was found to be corrected by the equivalent temperature corresponding to equal strength of both steels. (2) Creep-fatigue life can be predicted by the modified Diercks equation within a factor of 2 which is nearly as precise as the accuracy of strain range partitioning method. Required test and analysis procedure of this method are not so complicated as strain range partitioning method. (author)

  19. An Efficient Deterministic Approach to Model-based Prediction Uncertainty

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics deals with the prediction of the end of life (EOL) of a system. EOL is a random variable, due to the presence of process noise and uncertainty in the...

  20. The fatigue life prediction of aluminium alloy using genetic algorithm and neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susmikanti, Mike

    2013-09-01

    The behavior of the fatigue life of the industrial materials is very important. In many cases, the material with experiencing fatigue life cannot be avoided, however, there are many ways to control their behavior. Many investigations of the fatigue life phenomena of alloys have been done, but it is high cost and times consuming computation. This paper report the modeling and simulation approaches to predict the fatigue life behavior of Aluminum Alloys and resolves some problems of computation. First, the simulation using genetic algorithm was utilized to optimize the load to obtain the stress values. These results can be used to provide N-cycle fatigue life of the material. Furthermore, the experimental data was applied as input data in the neural network learning, while the samples data were applied for testing of the training data. Finally, the multilayer perceptron algorithm is applied to predict whether the given data sets in accordance with the fatigue life of the alloy. To achieve rapid convergence, the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was also employed. The simulations results shows that the fatigue behaviors of aluminum under pressure can be predicted. In addition, implementation of neural networks successfully identified a model for material fatigue life.

  1. Embrittlement and life prediction of aged duplex stainless steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuwano, Hisashi

    1996-01-01

    The stainless steel, for which the durability for long term in high temperature corrosive environment is demanded, is a complex plural alloy. Cr heightens the oxidation resistance, Ni improves the ductility and impact characteristics, Si improves the fluidity of the melted alloy and heightens the resistance to stress corrosion cracking, and Mo suppresses the pitting due to chlorine ions. These alloy elements are in the state of nonequilibrium solid solution in Fe base at practical temperature, and cause aging phenomena such as segregation, concentration abnormality and precipitation during the use for long term. The characteristics of stainless steel deteriorate due to this. Two-phase stainless cast steel, the example of the embrittlement of the material for an actual machine, the accelerated test of embrittlement, the activation energy for embrittlement, and as the mechanism of aging embrittlement, the spinodal decomposition of ferrite, the precipitation of G phase and the precipitation of carbides and nitrides are described. Also in the welded parts of austenitic stainless steel, delta-ferrite is formed during cooling, therefore, the condition is nearly same as two-phase stainless steel, and the embrittlement due to long term aging occurs. (K.I.)

  2. Creep-fatigue life prediction for different heats of Type 304 stainless steel by linear-damage rule, strain-range partitioning method, and damage-rate approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maiya, P.S.

    1978-07-01

    The creep-fatigue life results for five different heats of Type 304 stainless steel at 593 0 C (1100 0 F), generated under push-pull conditions in the axial strain-control mode, are presented. The life predictions for the various heats based on the linear-damage rule, strain-range partitioning method, and damage-rate approach are discussed. The appropriate material properties required for computation of fatigue life are also included

  3. Comparison of LIFE-4 and TEMECH code predictions with TREAT transient test data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gneiting, B.C.; Bard, F.E.; Hunter, C.W.

    1984-09-01

    Transient tests in the TREAT reactor were performed on FFTF Reference design mixed-oxide fuel pins, most of which had received prior steady-state irradiation in the EBR-II reactor. These transient test results provide a data base for calibration and verification of fuel performance codes and for evaluation of processes that affect pin damage during transient events. This paper presents a comparison of the LIFE-4 and TEMECH fuel pin thermal/mechanical analysis codes with the results from 20 HEDL TREAT experiments, ten of which resulted in pin failure. Both the LIFE-4 and TEMECH codes provided an adequate representation of the thermal and mechanical data from the TREAT experiments. Also, a criterion for 50% probability of pin failure was developed for each code using an average cumulative damage fraction value calculated for the pins that failed. Both codes employ the two major cladding loading mechanisms of differential thermal expansion and central cavity pressurization which were demonstrated by the test results. However, a detailed evaluation of the code predictions shows that the two code systems weigh the loading mechanism differently to reach the same end points of the TREAT transient results

  4. TBCs for Gas Turbines under Thermomechanical Loadings: Failure Behaviour and Life Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herzog R.

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The present contribution gives an overview about recent research on a thermal barrier coating (TBC system consisted of (i an intermetallic MCrAlY-alloy Bondcoat (BC applied by vacuum plasma spraying (VPS and (ii an Yttria Stabilised Zirconia (YSZ top coat air plasma sprayed (APS at Forschungszentrum Juelich, Institute of Energy and Climate Research (IEK-1. The influence of high temperature dwell time, maximum and minimum temperature on crack growth kinetics during thermal cycling of such plasma sprayed TBCs is investigated using infrared pulse thermography (IT, acoustic emission (AE analysis and scanning electron microscopy. Thermocyclic life in terms of accumulated time at maximum temperature decreases with increasing high temperature dwell time and increases with increasing minimum temperature. AE analysis proves that crack growth mainly occurs during cooling at temperatures below the ductile-to-brittle transition temperature of the BC. Superimposed mechanical load cycles accelerate delamination crack growth and, in case of sufficiently high mechanical loadings, result in premature fatigue failure of the substrate. A life prediction model based on TGO growth kinetics and a fracture mechanics approach has been developed which accounts for the influence of maximum and minimum temperature as well as of high temperature dwell time with good accuracy in an extremely wide parameter range.

  5. Influences of cyclic deformation on creep property and creep-fatigue life prediction considering them

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Yukio

    2009-01-01

    Evaluation of creep-fatigue is essential in design and life management of high-temperature components in power generation plants. Cyclic deformation may alter creep property of the materials and its consideration may improve predictability of creep-fatigue failure life. To understand them, creep tests were conducted for the materials subjected to cyclic loading and their creep rupture and deformation behaviors were compared with those of as-received materials. Both 316FR and modified 9Cr-1Mo steel were tested. (1) Creep rupture time and elongation generally tend to decrease with cyclic loading in both materials, and especially elongation of 316FR drastically decreases by being cyclically deformed. (2) Amount of primary creep deformation decreases by cyclic loading and the ways to improve its predictability were developed. (3) Use of creep rupture ductility after cyclic deformation, instead of that of as-received material, brought about clear improvement of life prediction in a modified ductility exhaustion approach. (author)

  6. Development and validation of a method to predict coal pillar life in South Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Der Merwe, J.N. [Pretoria Univ., Dept. of Mining Engineering (South Africa)

    2005-07-01

    One of the most difficult aspects of mine closure procedures, is to predict the long term stability of pillars in the case of coal mining. In South African coal mining, pillars have been designed since the late 1960's with the aid of a pillar strength formula based on statistical analysis of failed pillar cases by the well known team of Salamon and Munro. They developed the widely used power formula for pillar strength. Since that time, however, the data base of failed pillars has effectively doubled in size and re-analysis of the new data indicated that the original pillar strength of small pillars may have been over estimated. The data was then extensively re-analysed and a more effective linear formula for pillar strength was found. The most important differences between the two formulae are that the predicted strength of small pillars are lower and the strength of larger pillars, higher with the new formula. However, neither of the two methods explicitly cater for the prediction of the expected time of stability of coal pillars. No direct correlation between the safety factors and the period of stability of pillars could be found. It was then determined that the most frequent mode of pillar failure was by progressive scaling. Using the new formula to determine a minimum value of pillar safety factor (i.e. the safety factor at which failure can be taken as guaranteed to occur), the final sizes - after scaling - at which the failed pillars had to be in order to fail, were determined. The differences between the original dimensions and the postulated final dimensions were then used to calculate a rate of pillar scaling. The rate was then re-applied to the original data bases of both failed and intact pillar cases and distinct differences were found. The projected lives of the failed pillars were substantially shorter than the projected lives of the intact pillars. While this inspired confidence in the procedure, it was still based on an assumed and unproven

  7. Development and validation of a method to predict coal pillar life in South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Der Merwe, J.N.

    2005-01-01

    One of the most difficult aspects of mine closure procedures, is to predict the long term stability of pillars in the case of coal mining. In South African coal mining, pillars have been designed since the late 1960's with the aid of a pillar strength formula based on statistical analysis of failed pillar cases by the well known team of Salamon and Munro. They developed the widely used power formula for pillar strength. Since that time, however, the data base of failed pillars has effectively doubled in size and re-analysis of the new data indicated that the original pillar strength of small pillars may have been over estimated. The data was then extensively re-analysed and a more effective linear formula for pillar strength was found. The most important differences between the two formulae are that the predicted strength of small pillars are lower and the strength of larger pillars, higher with the new formula. However, neither of the two methods explicitly cater for the prediction of the expected time of stability of coal pillars. No direct correlation between the safety factors and the period of stability of pillars could be found. It was then determined that the most frequent mode of pillar failure was by progressive scaling. Using the new formula to determine a minimum value of pillar safety factor (i.e. the safety factor at which failure can be taken as guaranteed to occur), the final sizes - after scaling - at which the failed pillars had to be in order to fail, were determined. The differences between the original dimensions and the postulated final dimensions were then used to calculate a rate of pillar scaling. The rate was then re-applied to the original data bases of both failed and intact pillar cases and distinct differences were found. The projected lives of the failed pillars were substantially shorter than the projected lives of the intact pillars. While this inspired confidence in the procedure, it was still based on an assumed and unproven rate

  8. A new hybrid method for the prediction of the remaining useful life of a lithium-ion battery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Yang; Fang, Huajing; Zhang, Yong

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •The proposed prognostic method can make full use of historical information. •The method of obtaining historical error data is discussed in detail. •Comparative experiments based on data-driven and model-based methods are performed. •Battery working with different discharging currents is considered. -- Abstract: The lithium-ion battery has become the main power source of many electronic devices, it is necessary to know its state-of-health and remaining useful life to ensure the reliability of electronic device. In this paper, a novel hybrid method with the thought of error-correction is proposed to predict the remaining useful life of lithium-ion battery, which fuses the algorithms of unscented Kalman filter, complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) and relevance vector machine. Firstly, the unscented Kalman filter algorithm is adopted to obtain a prognostic result based on an estimated model and produce a raw error series. Secondly, a new error series is constructed by analyzing the decomposition results of the raw error series obtained by CEEMD method. Finally, the new error series is utilized by relevance vector machine regression model to predict the prognostic error which is adopted to correct the prognostic result obtained by unscented Kalman filter. Remaining useful life prediction experiments for batteries with different rated capacities and discharging currents are performed to show the high reliability of the proposed hybrid method.

  9. Preadmission quality of life can predict mortality in intensive care unit—A prospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bukan, Ramin I; Møller, Ann M; Henning, Mattias A S

    2014-01-01

    quality of life, assessed by SF-36 and SF-12, is as good at predicting ICU, 30-, and 90-day mortality as APACHE II in patients admitted to the ICU for longer than 24 hours. This indicates that estimated preadmission quality of life, potentially available in the pre-ICU setting, could aid decision making...... regarding ICU admission and deserves more attention by those caring for critically ill patients....

  10. VIEWS ON SUCCESS IN LIFE BASED GENDER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina Magdalena IORGA

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to study the characteristics of success in life we must consider the social construction of genders (male and female manifested in the interaction between the sexes. Social interpretation of biological sex leads to the identification of a set of behaviors particular to each sex, both in society and subsequently in private life as well as in the public eye. The research aims to identify the opinions and beliefs on the matter of students from the Veterinary Medicine University of Bucharest, their views on success in life, in the work place, in their study environment and in society as a whole, the characteristics of each gender, equality between women and men. The research findings reveal a specific social pattern determined by gender and residential environment.

  11. Based on BP Neural Network Stock Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiangwei; Ma, Xin

    2012-01-01

    The stock market has a high profit and high risk features, on the stock market analysis and prediction research has been paid attention to by people. Stock price trend is a complex nonlinear function, so the price has certain predictability. This article mainly with improved BP neural network (BPNN) to set up the stock market prediction model, and…

  12. Size matters: Installed maximal unit size predicts market life cycles of electricity generation technologies and systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, N.

    2008-01-01

    The electricity generation technologies and systems are complex and change in very dynamic fashions, with a multitude of energy sources and prime movers. Since an important concept in generator design is the 'economies of scale', we discover that the installed maximal unit size (capacity) of the generators is a key 'envelope-pushing' characteristic with logistical behaviors. The logistical wavelet analysis of the max unit sizes for different fuels and prime movers, and the cumulative capacities, reveals universal quantitative features in the aggregate evolution of the power industry. We extract the transition times of the max sizes (spanning 10-90% of the saturation limits) for different technologies and systems, and discover that the max size saturation in the 90-99% range precedes the saturation of cumulative capacities of the corresponding systems in the US. While these universal laws are still empirical, they give us a simple yet elegant framework to examine the evolution of the power industry and markets in predictive, not just descriptive, terms. Such laws give us a quantitative tool to spot trends and predict future development, invaluable in planning and resource allocation based on intrinsic technology and system market life cycles

  13. Remaining useful life prediction of degrading systems subjected to imperfect maintenance: Application to draught fans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhao-Qiang; Hu, Chang-Hua; Si, Xiao-Sheng; Zio, Enrico

    2018-02-01

    Current degradation modeling and remaining useful life prediction studies share a common assumption that the degrading systems are not maintained or maintained perfectly (i.e., to an as-good-as new state). This paper concerns the issues of how to model the degradation process and predict the remaining useful life of degrading systems subjected to imperfect maintenance activities, which can restore the health condition of a degrading system to any degradation level between as-good-as new and as-bad-as old. Toward this end, a nonlinear model driven by Wiener process is first proposed to characterize the degradation trajectory of the degrading system subjected to imperfect maintenance, where negative jumps are incorporated to quantify the influence of imperfect maintenance activities on the system's degradation. Then, the probability density function of the remaining useful life is derived analytically by a space-scale transformation, i.e., transforming the constructed degradation model with negative jumps crossing a constant threshold level to a Wiener process model crossing a random threshold level. To implement the proposed method, unknown parameters in the degradation model are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation method. Finally, the proposed degradation modeling and remaining useful life prediction method are applied to a practical case of draught fans belonging to a kind of mechanical systems from steel mills. The results reveal that, for a degrading system subjected to imperfect maintenance, our proposed method can obtain more accurate remaining useful life predictions than those of the benchmark model in literature.

  14. A New Approach for Reliability Life Prediction of Rail Vehicle Axle by Considering Vibration Measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meral Bayraktar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The effect of vibration on the axle has been considered. Vibration measurements at different speeds have been performed on the axle of a running rail vehicle to figure out displacement, acceleration, time, and frequency response. Based on the experimental works, equivalent stress has been used to find out life of the axles for 90% and 10% reliability. Calculated life values of the rail vehicle axle have been compared with the real life data and it is found that the life of a vehicle axle taking into account the vibration effects is in good agreement with the real life of the axle.

  15. Weather, knowledge base and life-style

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohle, Martin

    2015-04-01

    Why to main-stream curiosity for earth-science topics, thus to appraise these topics as of public interest? Namely, to influence practices how humankind's activities intersect the geosphere. How to main-stream that curiosity for earth-science topics? Namely, by weaving diverse concerns into common threads drawing on a wide range of perspectives: be it beauty or particularity of ordinary or special phenomena, evaluating hazards for or from mundane environments, or connecting the scholarly investigation with concerns of citizens at large; applying for threading traditional or modern media, arts or story-telling. Three examples: First "weather"; weather is a topic of primordial interest for most people: weather impacts on humans lives, be it for settlement, for food, for mobility, for hunting, for fishing, or for battle. It is the single earth-science topic that went "prime-time" since in the early 1950-ties the broadcasting of weather forecasts started and meteorologists present their work to the public, daily. Second "knowledge base"; earth-sciences are a relevant for modern societies' economy and value setting: earth-sciences provide insights into the evolution of live-bearing planets, the functioning of Earth's systems and the impact of humankind's activities on biogeochemical systems on Earth. These insights bear on production of goods, living conditions and individual well-being. Third "life-style"; citizen's urban culture prejudice their experiential connections: earth-sciences related phenomena are witnessed rarely, even most weather phenomena. In the past, traditional rural communities mediated their rich experiences through earth-centric story-telling. In course of the global urbanisation process this culture has given place to society-centric story-telling. Only recently anthropogenic global change triggered discussions on geoengineering, hazard mitigation, demographics, which interwoven with arts, linguistics and cultural histories offer a rich narrative

  16. Arrhenius equation modeling for the shelf life prediction of tomato paste containing a natural preservative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jafari, Seid Mahdi; Ganje, Mohammad; Dehnad, Danial; Ghanbari, Vahid; Hajitabar, Javad

    2017-12-01

    The shelf life of tomato paste with microencapsulated olive leaf extract was compared with that of samples containing a commercial preservative by accelerated shelf life testing. Based on previous studies showing that olive leaf extract as a rich source of phenolic compounds can have antimicrobial properties, application of its encapsulated form to improve the storage stability of tomato paste is proposed here. Regarding total soluble solids, the control and the sample containing 1000 µg g -1 sodium benzoate had the lowest (Q 10  = 1.63) and highest (Q 10  = 1.88) sensitivity to temperature changes respectively; also, the microencapsulated sample containing 1000 µg g -1 encapsulated olive leaf extract (Q 10  = 1.83) followed the sample containing 1000 µg g -1 sodium benzoate in terms of the highest kinetic rates. In the case of consistency, the lowest and highest activation energies (E a ) corresponded to samples containing 1000 µg g -1 non-encapsulated olive leaf extract and 1000 µg g -1 microencapsulated olive leaf extract respectively. Interestingly, samples containing microencapsulated olive leaf extract could maintain the original quality of the tomato paste very well, while those with non-encapsulated olive leaf extract rated the worst performance (among all specimens) in terms of maintaining their quality indices for a long time period. Overall, the shelf life equation was able to predict the consistency index of all tomato paste samples during long-time storage with high precision. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  17. Fatigue life prediction for pressure cast transmission housings using the strain life approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varenkamp, M. [ZF Friedrichshafen AG, Abteilung TB-1, 88038 Friedrichshafen (Germany); Schoen, M.

    2011-04-15

    Pressure cast transmission housings are structural components of complex shape, which have to fulfil, amongst others, the requirements of structural durability, saving as much weight as possible. The numerical proof of structural durability is carried out using the local strain approach. One challenge is to consider the inhomogeneous material properties, as a consequence of the casting process. It shows, that local porosity is the determining factor for the components fatigue life. Coming from the experiences made using the basic version of the local strain approach the methods used to successfully adjust the procedure for calculating pressure cast components under constant and variable amplitudes are described. (Copyright copyright 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  18. Decline curve based models for predicting natural gas well performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arash Kamari

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The productivity of a gas well declines over its production life as cannot cover economic policies. To overcome such problems, the production performance of gas wells should be predicted by applying reliable methods to analyse the decline trend. Therefore, reliable models are developed in this study on the basis of powerful artificial intelligence techniques viz. the artificial neural network (ANN modelling strategy, least square support vector machine (LSSVM approach, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS, and decision tree (DT method for the prediction of cumulative gas production as well as initial decline rate multiplied by time as a function of the Arps' decline curve exponent and ratio of initial gas flow rate over total gas flow rate. It was concluded that the results obtained based on the models developed in current study are in satisfactory agreement with the actual gas well production data. Furthermore, the results of comparative study performed demonstrates that the LSSVM strategy is superior to the other models investigated for the prediction of both cumulative gas production, and initial decline rate multiplied by time.

  19. Life Prediction/Reliability Data of Glass-Ceramic Material Determined for Radome Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sung R.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2002-01-01

    Brittle materials, ceramics, are candidate materials for a variety of structural applications for a wide range of temperatures. However, the process of slow crack growth, occurring in any loading configuration, limits the service life of structural components. Therefore, it is important to accurately determine the slow crack growth parameters required for component life prediction using an appropriate test methodology. This test methodology also should be useful in determining the influence of component processing and composition variables on the slow crack growth behavior of newly developed or existing materials, thereby allowing the component processing and composition to be tailored and optimized to specific needs. Through the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM), the authors recently developed two test methods to determine the life prediction parameters of ceramics. The two test standards, ASTM 1368 for room temperature and ASTM C 1465 for elevated temperatures, were published in the 2001 Annual Book of ASTM Standards, Vol. 15.01. Briefly, the test method employs constant stress-rate (or dynamic fatigue) testing to determine flexural strengths as a function of the applied stress rate. The merit of this test method lies in its simplicity: strengths are measured in a routine manner in flexure at four or more applied stress rates with an appropriate number of test specimens at each applied stress rate. The slow crack growth parameters necessary for life prediction are then determined from a simple relationship between the strength and the applied stress rate. Extensive life prediction testing was conducted at the NASA Glenn Research Center using the developed ASTM C 1368 test method to determine the life prediction parameters of a glass-ceramic material that the Navy will use for radome applications.

  20. Evaluation of creep-fatigue life prediction methods for low-carbon/nitrogen-added SUS316

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Yukio

    1998-01-01

    Low-carbon/medium nitrogen 316 stainless steel called 316FR is a principal candidate for the high-temperature structural materials of a demonstration fast reactor plant. Because creep-fatigue damage is a dominant failure mechanism of the high-temperature materials subjected to thermal cycles, it is important to establish a reliable creep-fatigue life prediction method for this steel. Long-term creep tests and strain-controlled creep-fatigue tests have been conducted at various conditions for two different heats of the steel. In the constant load creep tests, both materials showed similar creep rupture strength but different ductility. The material with lower ductility exhibited shorter life under creep-fatigue loading conditions and correlation of creep-fatigue life with rupture ductility, rather than rupture strength, was made clear. Two kinds of creep-fatigue life prediction methods, i.e. time fraction rule and ductility exhaustion method were applied to predict the creep-fatigue life. Accurate description of stress relaxation behavior was achieved by an addition of 'viscous' strain to conventional creep strain and only the latter of which was assumed to contribute to creep damage in the application of ductility exhaustion method. The current version of the ductility exhaustion method was found to have very good accuracy in creep-fatigue life prediction, while the time fraction rule overpredicted creep-fatigue life as large as a factor of 30. To make a reliable estimation of the creep damage in actual components, use of ductility exhaustion method is strongly recommended. (author)

  1. Fatigue-creep life prediction for a notched specimen of 2[1]/[4]Cr-1Mo steel at 600 C

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inoue, Tatsuo; Sakane, Masao; Fukuda, Yoshio; Igari, Toshihide; Miyahara, Mitsuo; Okazaki, Masakazu

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents the life prediction of 2[1]/[4]Cr-1Mo notched specimens subjected to fast-fast, slow-slow and hold-time loadings at 600 C. The crack initiation lives of notched specimens were estimated based on the local stress-strain calculated by inelastic finite element analyses. For the life prediction, combinations of seven different constitutive models and five fatigue-creep damage laws were used. The applicability of the constitutive model and damage law is discussed. The constitutive models predict similar stress-strain relations at the notch root, leading to similar predicted lives. The damage model, however, has a much larger influence on the life prediction. ((orig.))

  2. Multi-Axial Damage Index and Accumulation Model for Predicting Fatigue Life of CMC Materials, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The fatigue life of CMCs must be well characterized for the safe and reliable use of these materials as integrated TPS components. Existing fatigue life prediction...

  3. Revealing life-history traits by contrasting genetic estimations with predictions of effective population size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenbaum, Gili; Renan, Sharon; Templeton, Alan R; Bouskila, Amos; Saltz, David; Rubenstein, Daniel I; Bar-David, Shirli

    2017-12-22

    Effective population size, a central concept in conservation biology, is now routinely estimated from genetic surveys and can also be theoretically predicted from demographic, life-history, and mating-system data. By evaluating the consistency of theoretical predictions with empirically estimated effective size, insights can be gained regarding life-history characteristics and the relative impact of different life-history traits on genetic drift. These insights can be used to design and inform management strategies aimed at increasing effective population size. We demonstrated this approach by addressing the conservation of a reintroduced population of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus). We estimated the variance effective size (N ev ) from genetic data (N ev =24.3) and formulated predictions for the impacts on N ev of demography, polygyny, female variance in lifetime reproductive success (RS), and heritability of female RS. By contrasting the genetic estimation with theoretical predictions, we found that polygyny was the strongest factor affecting genetic drift because only when accounting for polygyny were predictions consistent with the genetically measured N ev . The comparison of effective-size estimation and predictions indicated that 10.6% of the males mated per generation when heritability of female RS was unaccounted for (polygyny responsible for 81% decrease in N ev ) and 19.5% mated when female RS was accounted for (polygyny responsible for 67% decrease in N ev ). Heritability of female RS also affected N ev ; hf2=0.91 (heritability responsible for 41% decrease in N ev ). The low effective size is of concern, and we suggest that management actions focus on factors identified as strongly affecting Nev, namely, increasing the availability of artificial water sources to increase number of dominant males contributing to the gene pool. This approach, evaluating life-history hypotheses in light of their impact on effective population size, and contrasting

  4. Prediction of inelastic behavior and creep-fatigue life of perforated plates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igari, Toshihide; Setoguchi, Katsuya; Nakano, Shohki; Nomura, Shinichi

    1991-01-01

    Prediction methods of macroscopic and local stress-strain behavior of perforated plates in plastic and creep regime which are proposed by the authors are applied to the inelastic analysis and creep-fatigue life prediction of perforated cylinder subjected to cyclic thermal stress. Stress-strain behavior of perforated cylinder is analyzed by modeling the perforated portion to cylinder with equivalent-solid-plate properties. Creep-fatigue lives at around a hole of perforated plates are predicted by using the local stress-strain behavior and are compared with experimentally observed lives. (author)

  5. Prediction of mortality based on facial characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnaud Delorme

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies have shown that characteristics of the face contain a wealth of information about health, age and chronic clinical conditions. Such studies involve objective measurement of facial features correlated with historical health information. But some individuals also claim to be adept at gauging mortality based on a glance at a person’s photograph. To test this claim, we invited 12 such individuals to see if they could determine if a person was alive or dead based solely on a brief examination of facial photographs. All photos used in the experiment were transformed into a uniform gray scale and then counterbalanced across eight categories: gender, age, gaze direction, glasses, head position, smile, hair color, and image resolution. Participants examined 404 photographs displayed on a computer monitor, one photo at a time, each shown for a maximum of 8 seconds. Half of the individuals in the photos were deceased, and half were alive at the time the experiment was conducted. Participants were asked to press a button if they thought the person in a photo was living or deceased. Overall mean accuracy on this task was 53.8%, where 50% was expected by chance (p < 0.004, two-tail. Statistically significant accuracy was independently obtained in 5 of the 12 participants. We also collected 32-channel electrophysiological recordings and observed a robust difference between images of deceased individuals correctly vs. incorrectly classified in the early event related potential at 100 ms post-stimulus onset. Our results support claims of individuals who report that some as-yet unknown features of the face predict mortality. The results are also compatible with claims about clairvoyance and warrants further investigation.

  6. The Role of Life Satisfaction and Parenting Styles in Predicting Delinquent Behaviors among High School Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onder, Fulya Cenkseven; Yilmaz, Yasin

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine whether the parenting styles and life satisfaction predict delinquent behaviors frequently or not. Firstly the data were collected from 471 girls and 410 boys, a total of 881 high school students. Then the research was carried out with 502 students showing low (n = 262, 52.2%) and high level of delinquent…

  7. The Roles of Life Satisfaction, Teaching Efficacy, and Self-Esteem in Predicting Teachers' Job Satisfaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Çevik, Gülsen Büyüksahin

    2017-01-01

    The current research aims to find out the extent to which high school teachers' life satisfaction, teaching efficacy, and self-esteem predict their job satisfaction. Research participants included a total of 358 teachers (age = 38.82; Ss = 6.73; range, 22-58), 222 males (62%) and 136 females (38%), employed in 21 public high schools in the city…

  8. Numerical Analysis of Rolling Contact Fatigue Crack Initiation and Fatigue Life Prediction of the Railway Crossing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xin, L.; Markine, V.L.; Shevtsov, I.

    2015-01-01

    The procedure for analysing rolling contact fatigue crack initiation and fatigue life prediction of the railway turnout crossing is developed. A three-dimensional finite element (FE) model is used to obtain stress and strain results, considering the dynamic effects of wheel-crossing rolling contact.

  9. Fatigue life prediction in composites using progressive damage modelling under block and spectrum loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Passipoularidis, Vaggelis; Philippidis, T.P.; Brøndsted, Povl

    2010-01-01

    series can be simulated. The predictions are validated against fatigue life data both from repeated block tests at a single stress ratio as well as against spectral fatigue using the WISPER, WISPERX and NEW WISPER load sequences on a Glass/Epoxy multidirectional laminate typical of a Wind Turbine Rotor...

  10. The Level of Quality of Work Life to Predict Work Alienation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdem, Mustafa

    2014-01-01

    The current research aims to determine the level of elementary school teachers' quality of work life (QWL) to predict work alienation. The study was designed using the relational survey model. The research population consisted of 1096 teachers employed at 25 elementary schools within the city of Van in the academic year 2010- 2011, and 346…

  11. Improvement of life prediction accuracy by introduction of strain-rate effect into modified ductility exhaustion method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Yukio

    1994-01-01

    It is important to use a reliable creep-fatigue damage evaluation method to prevent failures due to creep-fatigue damage accumulated during operation life in the structural design for fast breeder reactor plants. In this study, slow strain-rate fatigue tests were conducted for SUS316 steel for fast breeder application (316FR) and the improvement of creep-fatigue life estimation method was proposed based on test results. Main results can be summarized as follows: (1) In the slow strain-rate fatigue tests, life reduction caused by creep damage was observed as in the case of strain-hold creep-fatigue tests. (2) Strain-rate dependency of creep damage was introduced into the modified ductility exhaustion method previously proposed by the author. Good agreement of predicted lives with observed lives was achieved for SUS304 and 316FR steels with the method proposed here. (author)

  12. Extending Theory-Based Quantitative Predictions to New Health Behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brick, Leslie Ann D; Velicer, Wayne F; Redding, Colleen A; Rossi, Joseph S; Prochaska, James O

    2016-04-01

    Traditional null hypothesis significance testing suffers many limitations and is poorly adapted to theory testing. A proposed alternative approach, called Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions, uses effect size estimates and confidence intervals to directly test predictions based on theory. This paper replicates findings from previous smoking studies and extends the approach to diet and sun protection behaviors using baseline data from a Transtheoretical Model behavioral intervention (N = 5407). Effect size predictions were developed using two methods: (1) applying refined effect size estimates from previous smoking research or (2) using predictions developed by an expert panel. Thirteen of 15 predictions were confirmed for smoking. For diet, 7 of 14 predictions were confirmed using smoking predictions and 6 of 16 using expert panel predictions. For sun protection, 3 of 11 predictions were confirmed using smoking predictions and 5 of 19 using expert panel predictions. Expert panel predictions and smoking-based predictions poorly predicted effect sizes for diet and sun protection constructs. Future studies should aim to use previous empirical data to generate predictions whenever possible. The best results occur when there have been several iterations of predictions for a behavior, such as with smoking, demonstrating that expected values begin to converge on the population effect size. Overall, the study supports necessity in strengthening and revising theory with empirical data.

  13. Functional Independence in Late-Life: Maintaining Physical Functioning in Older Adulthood Predicts Daily Life Function after Age 80.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, Leslie; Leng, Xiaoyan; La Monte, Michael J; Tindle, Hilary A; Cochrane, Barbara B; Shumaker, Sally A

    2016-03-01

    We examined physical functioning (PF) trajectories (maintaining, slowly declining, and rapidly declining) spanning 15 years in older women aged 65-80 and protective factors that predicted better current levels and less decline in functional independence outcomes after age 80. Women's Health Initiative extension participants who met criteria (enrolled in either the clinical trial or observational study cohort, >80 years at the data release cutoff, PF survey data from initial enrollment to age 80, and functional independence survey data after age 80) were included in these analyses (mean [SD] age = 84.0 [1.4] years; N = 10,478). PF was measured with the SF-36 (mean = 4.9 occasions). Functional independence was measured by self-reported level of dependence in basic and instrumental activities of daily living (ADLs and IADLs) (mean = 3.4 and 3.3 occasions). Maintaining consistent PF in older adulthood extends functional independence in ADL and IADL in late-life. Protective factors shared by ADL and IADL include maintaining PF over time, self-reported excellent or very good health, no history of hip fracture after age 55, and no history of cardiovascular disease. Better IADL function is uniquely predicted by a body mass index less than 25 and no depression. Less ADL and IADL decline is predicted by better self-reported health, and less IADL decline is uniquely predicted by having no history of hip fracture after age 55. Maintaining or improving PF and preventing injury and disease in older adulthood (ages 65-80) has far-reaching implications for improving late-life (after age 80) functional independence. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Towards a Life Cycle Based Chemical Alternative Assessment (LCAA)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jolliet, O.; Huang, L.; Overcash, Michael

    2017-01-01

    approach combines the following elements: a) The manufacturing phase chemical inventory is based on the environmental genome of industrial products database, ensuring mass and energy balance, b) near-field exposure to consumer products during the use phase is determined based on the mass of chemical......There is a need for an operational quantitative screening-level assessment of alternatives, that is life-cycle based and able to serve both Life cycle Assessment (LCA and chemical alternatives assessment (CAA). This presentation therefore aims to develop and illustrate a new approach called “Life...... Cycle Based Chemical Alternative Assessment (LCAA)” that will quantify exposure and life cycle impacts consistently and efficiently over the main life cycle stages. The new LCAA approach is illustrated though a proof-of-concept case study of alternative plasticizers in vinyl flooring. The proposed LCAA...

  15. Predicting life satisfaction in Angolan elderly: The moderating effect of gender

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available A considerable amount of research has been done to explain life satisfaction in the elderly, and there is growing empirical evidence on the best predictors of life satisfaction. When studying elderly's lifesatisfaction and its predictors, gender differences have been found in several studies, including significant interactions with widowhood, for example. In this context, the present study aims were: (1 to test for the gender invariance in a life satisfaction measure; (2 to predict life satisfaction using several variables related to the aging process; and (3 to test the potential moderator effects due to gender in this prediction. Participants were 1003 Angolan elderly. Several multi-group (men vs. women MIMIC structural models were tested. First, results showed that there is gender invariance for the measurement of life satisfaction. Second, results found no moderation effects on key variables of the aging process. In other words, the estimated effects of psychosocial variables on life satisfaction remain the same for both genders. The discussion relates these results to the existing literature and posits the contributions of the study.

  16. Life prediction of OLED for constant-stress accelerated degradation tests using luminance decaying model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Jianping, E-mail: jpzhanglzu@163.com [College of Energy and Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090 (China); Li, Wenbin [College of Energy and Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090 (China); Cheng, Guoliang; Chen, Xiao [Shanghai Tianyi Electric Co., Ltd., Shanghai 201611 (China); Wu, Helen [School of Computing, Engineering and Mathematics, University of Western Sydney, Sydney 2751 (Australia); Herman Shen, M.-H. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, The Ohio State University, OH 43210 (United States)

    2014-10-15

    In order to acquire the life information of organic light emitting diode (OLED), three groups of constant stress accelerated degradation tests are performed to obtain the luminance decaying data of samples under the condition that the luminance and the current are respectively selected as the indicator of performance degradation and the test stress. Weibull function is applied to describe the relationship between luminance decaying and time, least square method (LSM) is employed to calculate the shape parameter and scale parameter, and the life prediction of OLED is achieved. The numerical results indicate that the accelerated degradation test and the luminance decaying model reveal the luminance decaying law of OLED. The luminance decaying formula fits the test data very well, and the average error of fitting value compared with the test data is small. Furthermore, the accuracy of the OLED life predicted by luminance decaying model is high, which enable rapid estimation of OLED life and provide significant guidelines to help engineers make decisions in design and manufacturing strategy from the aspect of reliability life. - Highlights: • We gain luminance decaying data by accelerated degradation tests on OLED. • The luminance decaying model objectively reveals the decaying law of OLED luminance. • The least square method (LSM) is employed to calculate Weibull parameters. • The plan designed for accelerated degradation tests proves to be feasible. • The accuracy of the OLED life and the luminance decaying fitting formula is high.

  17. Life prediction of OLED for constant-stress accelerated degradation tests using luminance decaying model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Jianping; Li, Wenbin; Cheng, Guoliang; Chen, Xiao; Wu, Helen; Herman Shen, M.-H.

    2014-01-01

    In order to acquire the life information of organic light emitting diode (OLED), three groups of constant stress accelerated degradation tests are performed to obtain the luminance decaying data of samples under the condition that the luminance and the current are respectively selected as the indicator of performance degradation and the test stress. Weibull function is applied to describe the relationship between luminance decaying and time, least square method (LSM) is employed to calculate the shape parameter and scale parameter, and the life prediction of OLED is achieved. The numerical results indicate that the accelerated degradation test and the luminance decaying model reveal the luminance decaying law of OLED. The luminance decaying formula fits the test data very well, and the average error of fitting value compared with the test data is small. Furthermore, the accuracy of the OLED life predicted by luminance decaying model is high, which enable rapid estimation of OLED life and provide significant guidelines to help engineers make decisions in design and manufacturing strategy from the aspect of reliability life. - Highlights: • We gain luminance decaying data by accelerated degradation tests on OLED. • The luminance decaying model objectively reveals the decaying law of OLED luminance. • The least square method (LSM) is employed to calculate Weibull parameters. • The plan designed for accelerated degradation tests proves to be feasible. • The accuracy of the OLED life and the luminance decaying fitting formula is high

  18. Distance saturation product predicts health-related quality of life among sarcoidosis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourbonnais, Julie M; Malaisamy, Subramanian; Dalal, Bhavinkumar D; Samarakoon, Priyan C; Parikh, Swapna R; Samavati, Lobelia

    2012-06-13

    Sarcoidosis is a chronic disease with different phenotypic manifestations. Health-related quality of life is an important aspect in sarcoidosis, yet difficult to measure. The objective of this study was to identify clinical markers predictive of poor quality of life in sarcoidosis patients that can be followed over time and targeted for intervention. We assessed the quality of life of 162 patients with confirmed sarcoidosis in a prospective, cross-sectional study using the Sarcoidosis Health Questionnaire (SHQ) and Short Form-36 Health Survey (SF-36). We evaluated the validity of these questionnaires and sought to identify variables that would best explain the performance scores of the patients. On multivariate regression analyses, the very best composite model to predict total scores from both surveys was a model containing the distance-saturation product and Borg Dyspnea Scale score at the end of a 6-min walk test. This model could better predict SF-36 scores (R² = 0.33) than SHQ scores (R² = 0.24). Substitution of distanced walked in 6 min for the distance-saturation product in this model resulted in a lesser ability to predict both scores (R² = 0.26 for SF-36; R² = 0.22 for SHQ). Both the SHQ and SF-36 surveys are valuable tools in the assessment of health-related quality of life in sarcoidosis patients. The best model to predict quality of life among these patients, as determined by regression analyses, included the distance-saturation product and Borg score after the 6-min walk test. Both variables represent easily obtainable clinical parameters that can be followed over time and targeted for intervention.

  19. Computational models for residual creep life prediction of power plant components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grewal, G.S.; Singh, A.K.; Ramamoortry, M.

    2006-01-01

    All high temperature - high pressure power plant components are prone to irreversible visco-plastic deformation by the phenomenon of creep. The steady state creep response as well as the total creep life of a material is related to the operational component temperature through, respectively, the exponential and inverse exponential relationships. Minor increases in the component temperature can thus have serious consequences as far as the creep life and dimensional stability of a plant component are concerned. In high temperature steam tubing in power plants, one mechanism by which a significant temperature rise can occur is by the growth of a thermally insulating oxide film on its steam side surface. In the present paper, an elegantly simple and computationally efficient technique is presented for predicting the residual creep life of steel components subjected to continual steam side oxide film growth. Similarly, fabrication of high temperature power plant components involves extensive use of welding as the fabrication process of choice. Naturally, issues related to the creep life of weldments have to be seriously addressed for safe and continual operation of the welded plant component. Unfortunately, a typical weldment in an engineering structure is a zone of complex microstructural gradation comprising of a number of distinct sub-zones with distinct meso-scale and micro-scale morphology of the phases and (even) chemistry and its creep life prediction presents considerable challenges. The present paper presents a stochastic algorithm, which can be' used for developing experimental creep-cavitation intensity versus residual life correlations for welded structures. Apart from estimates of the residual life in a mean field sense, the model can be used for predicting the reliability of the plant component in a rigorous probabilistic setting. (author)

  20. Protein structure based prediction of catalytic residues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fajardo, J Eduardo; Fiser, Andras

    2013-02-22

    Worldwide structural genomics projects continue to release new protein structures at an unprecedented pace, so far nearly 6000, but only about 60% of these proteins have any sort of functional annotation. We explored a range of features that can be used for the prediction of functional residues given a known three-dimensional structure. These features include various centrality measures of nodes in graphs of interacting residues: closeness, betweenness and page-rank centrality. We also analyzed the distance of functional amino acids to the general center of mass (GCM) of the structure, relative solvent accessibility (RSA), and the use of relative entropy as a measure of sequence conservation. From the selected features, neural networks were trained to identify catalytic residues. We found that using distance to the GCM together with amino acid type provide a good discriminant function, when combined independently with sequence conservation. Using an independent test set of 29 annotated protein structures, the method returned 411 of the initial 9262 residues as the most likely to be involved in function. The output 411 residues contain 70 of the annotated 111 catalytic residues. This represents an approximately 14-fold enrichment of catalytic residues on the entire input set (corresponding to a sensitivity of 63% and a precision of 17%), a performance competitive with that of other state-of-the-art methods. We found that several of the graph based measures utilize the same underlying feature of protein structures, which can be simply and more effectively captured with the distance to GCM definition. This also has the added the advantage of simplicity and easy implementation. Meanwhile sequence conservation remains by far the most influential feature in identifying functional residues. We also found that due the rapid changes in size and composition of sequence databases, conservation calculations must be recalibrated for specific reference databases.

  1. A new simplified allometric approach for predicting the biological half-life of radionuclides in reptiles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beresford, N.A.; Wood, M.D.

    2014-01-01

    A major source of uncertainty in the estimation of radiation dose to wildlife is the prediction of internal radionuclide activity concentrations. Allometric (mass-dependent) relationships describing biological half-life (T 1/2b ) of radionuclides in organisms can be used to predict organism activity concentrations. The establishment of allometric expressions requires experimental data which are often lacking. An approach to predict the T 1/2b in homeothermic vertebrates has recently been proposed. In this paper we have adapted this to be applicable to reptiles. For Cs, Ra and Sr, over a mass range of 0.02–1.5 kg, resultant predictions were generally within a factor of 6 of reported values demonstrating that the approach can be used when measured T 1/2b data are lacking. However, the effect of mass on reptilian radionuclide T 1/2b is minimal. If sufficient measured data are available for a given radionuclide then it is likely that these would give a reasonable estimate of T 1/2b in any reptile species. - Highlights: • An allometric approach to predict radionuclide T 1/2b values in reptiles is derived. • Predictions are generally within a factor of six of measured values. • Radionuclide biological half-life is in-effect mass independent

  2. Physical activity predicts quality of life and happiness in children and adolescents with cerebral palsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maher, Carol Ann; Toohey, Monica; Ferguson, Monika

    2016-01-01

    To examine the associations between physical activity, health-related quality of life and happiness in young people with cerebral palsy. A total of 70 young people with cerebral palsy (45 males, 25 females; mean age 13 years 11 months, SD 2 years 0 month) took part in a cross-sectional, descriptive postal survey assessing physical activity (Physical Activity Questionnaire for Adolescents), functional ability (Gross Motor Function Classification System), quality of life (Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory 4.0) and happiness (single Likert-scale item). Relationships between physical activity, quality of life and happiness were examined using backward stepwise linear regression. Physical activity significantly predicted physical quality of life (R(2 )= 0.64, β = 6.12, p = 0.02), social quality of life (R(2 )= 0.28, β = 9.27, p happiness (R(2 )= 0.08, β = 0.9, p = 0.04). Physical activity was not associated with emotional or school quality of life. This study found a positive association between physical activity, social and physical quality of life, and happiness in young people with cerebral palsy. Findings underscore the potential benefits of physical activity for the wellbeing of young people with cerebral palsy, in addition to its well-recognised physical and health benefits. Physical activity is a key predictor of quality of life and happiness in young people with cerebral palsy. Physical activity is widely recognised as having physical health benefits for young people with cerebral palsy; however, this study also highlights that it may have important benefits for wellbeing, quality of life and happiness. This emphasises the need for clinical services and intervention studies aimed specifically at increasing physical activity amongst children and adolescents with cerebral palsy.

  3. Measurement techniques and instruments suitable for life-prediction testing of photovoltaic arrays. Interim report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noel, G.T.; Sliemers, F.A.; Deringer, G.C.; Wood, V.E.; Wilkes, K.E.; Gaines, G.B.; Carmichael, D.C.

    1978-01-15

    The validation of a service life of 20 years for low-cost photovoltaic arrays must be accomplished through accelerated life-prediction tests. A methodology for such tests has been developed in a preceding study. The results discussed consist of the initial identification and assessment of all known measurement techniques and instruments that might be used in these life-prediction tests. Array failure modes, relevant materials property changes, and primary degradation mechanisms are discussed as a prerequisite to identifying suitable measurement techniques and instruments. Candidate techniques and instruments are identified on the basis of extensive reviews of published and unpublished information. These methods are organized in six measurement categories--chemical, electrical, optical, thermal, mechanical, and ''other physicals''. Using specified evaluation criteria, the most promising techniques and instruments for use in life-prediction tests of arrays are then selected. These recommended techniques and their characteristics are described. Recommendations are made regarding establishment of the adequacy, particularly with respect to precision, of the more fully developed techniques for this application, and regarding the experimental evaluation of promising developmental techniques. Measurement needs not satisfied by presently available techniques/instruments are also identified.

  4. Enhancing College Students' Life Skills through Project Based Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurdinger, Scott; Qureshi, Mariam

    2015-01-01

    This study examined whether life skills could be developed in a Project Based Learning (PBL) course. The participants were students enrolled in a graduate level PBL course. The same 35-question survey was given to students at the beginning and end of the course, and students were asked to rank their life skills using a Likert scale. Additionally,…

  5. Menopausal symptoms: do life events predict severity of symptoms in peri- and post-menopause?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimenta, Filipa; Leal, Isabel; Maroco, João; Ramos, Catarina

    2012-08-01

    Hormonal changes during menopausal transition are linked to physical and psychological symptoms' emergence. This study aims to explore if life events predict menopausal symptoms. This cross-sectional research encompasses a community sample of 992 women who answered to socio-demographic, health, menopause-related and lifestyle questionnaires; menopausal symptoms and life events were assessed with validated instruments. Structural equation modeling was used to build a causal model. Menopausal status predicted only three symptoms: skin/facial hair changes (β=.136; p=.020), sexual (β=.157; p=.004) and, marginally, vasomotor symptoms (β=.094; p=.054). Life events predicted depressive mood (β=-.391; p=.002), anxiety (β=-.271; p=.003), perceived cognitive impairment (β=-.295; p=.003), body shape changes (β=-.136; p=.031), aches/pain (β=-.212; p=.007), skin/facial hair changes (β=-.171; p=.021), numbness (β=-.169; p=.015), perceived loss of control (β=-.234; p=.008), mouth, nails and hair changes (β=-.290; p=.004), vasomotor (β=-.113; p=.044) and sexual symptoms (β=-.208; p=.009). Although women in peri- and post-menopausal manifested higher symptoms' severity than their pre-menopausal counterparts, only three of the menopausal symptoms assessed were predicted by menopausal status. Since the vast majority of menopausal symptoms' severity was significantly influenced by the way women perceived their recent life events, it is concluded that the symptomatology exacerbation, in peri- and post-menopausal women, might be due to life conditions and events, rather than hormonal changes (nonetheless, the inverse influence should be investigated in future studies). Therefore, these should be accounted for in menopause-related clinical and research settings. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Prediction of inelastic behavior and creep-fatigue life of perforated plates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igari, Toshihide; Yamauchi, Masafumi; Nomura, Shinichi.

    1992-01-01

    Prediction methods of macroscopic and local stress-strain behaviors of perforated plates in plastic and creep regime are proposed in this paper, and are applied to the creep-fatigue life prediction of perforated plates. Both equivalent-solid-plate properties corresponding to the macroscopic behavior and the stress-strain concentration around a hole were obtained by assuming the analogy between plasticity and creep and also by extending the authors' proposal in creep condition. The perforated plates which were made of Hastelloy XR were subjected to the strain-controlled cyclic test at 950degC in air in order to experimentally obtain the macroscopic behavior such as the cyclic stress-strain curve and creep-fatigue life around a hole. The results obtained are summarized as follows. (1) The macroscopic behavior of perforated plates including cyclic stress-strain behavior and relaxation is predictable by using the proposed method in this paper. (2) The creep-fatigue life around a hole can be predicted by using the proposed method for stress-strain concentration around a hole. (author)

  7. Does life satisfaction predict five-year mortality in community-living older adults?

    Science.gov (United States)

    St John, Philip D; Mackenzie, Corey; Menec, Verena

    2015-01-01

    Depression and depressive symptoms predict death, but it is less clear if more general measures of life satisfaction (LS) predict death. Our objectives were to determine: (1) if LS predicts mortality over a five-year period in community-living older adults; and (2) which aspects of LS predict death. 1751 adults over the age of 65 who were living in the community were sampled from a representative population sampling frame in 1991/1992 and followed five years later. Age, gender, and education were self-reported. An index of multimorbidity and the Older American Resource Survey measured health and functional status, and the Terrible-Delightful Scale assessed overall LS as well as satisfaction with: health, finances, family, friends, housing, recreation, self-esteem, religion, and transportation. Cox proportional hazards models examined the influence of LS on time to death. 417 participants died during the five-year study period. Overall LS and all aspects of LS except finances, religion, and self-esteem predicted death in unadjusted analyses. In fully adjusted analyses, LS with health, housing, and recreation predicted death. Other aspects of LS did not predict death after accounting for functional status and multimorbidity. LS predicted death, but certain aspects of LS are more strongly associated with death. The effect of LS is complex and may be mediated or confounded by health and functional status. It is important to consider different domains of LS when considering the impact of this important emotional indicator on mortality among older adults.

  8. Predicting quality of life in pediatric asthma: the role of emotional competence and personality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahaye, Magali; Van Broeck, Nady; Bodart, Eddy; Luminet, Olivier

    2013-05-01

    The present study examined the predictive value of emotional competence and the five-factor model of personality on the quality of life of children with asthma. Participants were 90 children (M age = 11.73, SD = 2.60) having controlled and partly controlled asthma, undergoing everyday treatment. Children filled in questionnaires assessing emotional competence and quality of life. Parents completed questionnaires assessing the personality of their child. Results showed that two emotional competences, bodily awareness and verbal sharing of emotions, were related to the quality of life of children with asthma. Moreover, one personality trait, benevolence, was associated with children's quality of life. Regression analyses showed that the predictive value of these three dimensions remained significant over and above asthma control and socio-demographic variables frequently associated with the quality of life of children with asthma (age, gender, and educational level of parents). These findings emphasize the importance of alerting the clinician who works with children with asthma to observe and assess the child's expression of emotions, attention to bodily sensations, and benevolence.

  9. Integrated Design Software Predicts the Creep Life of Monolithic Ceramic Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-01-01

    Significant improvements in propulsion and power generation for the next century will require revolutionary advances in high-temperature materials and structural design. Advanced ceramics are candidate materials for these elevated-temperature applications. As design protocols emerge for these material systems, designers must be aware of several innate features, including the degrading ability of ceramics to carry sustained load. Usually, time-dependent failure in ceramics occurs because of two different, delayedfailure mechanisms: slow crack growth and creep rupture. Slow crack growth initiates at a preexisting flaw and continues until a critical crack length is reached, causing catastrophic failure. Creep rupture, on the other hand, occurs because of bulk damage in the material: void nucleation and coalescence that eventually leads to macrocracks which then propagate to failure. Successful application of advanced ceramics depends on proper characterization of material behavior and the use of an appropriate design methodology. The life of a ceramic component can be predicted with the NASA Lewis Research Center's Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES) integrated design programs. CARES/CREEP determines the expected life of a component under creep conditions, and CARES/LIFE predicts the component life due to fast fracture and subcritical crack growth. The previously developed CARES/LIFE program has been used in numerous industrial and Government applications.

  10. Early-life exposures predicting onset and resolution of childhood overweight or obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Jessica A; Long, Catherine; Clifford, Susan A; Muller, Joshua; Gillespie, Alanna N; Donath, Susan; Wake, Melissa

    2017-10-01

    To determine which of multiple early-life exposures predict onset or resolution of overweight/obesity during a 9-year period. Design : longitudinal cohort from three harmonised community-based cohorts enriched for overweight and obesity. Early-life exposures : child-gestational age; delivery; birth weight; breast feeding; solids introduction; baseline body mass index (BMI); waist circumference; diet; activity; global, physical and psychosocial health. Mother-baseline BMI; education; age; neighbourhood disadvantage; concern for child's weight. Outcome : change in BMI category. Analyses : adjusted logistic regression. On average, the 363 children (57% retention) were 6 and 15 years old at baseline and follow-up. Children were classified as 'never' overweight/obese (38%), 'resolving' overweight/obese (15%), 'becoming' overweight/obese (8%) or 'always' overweight/obese (39%). Compared with 'never overweight/obese' children, odds of 'becoming overweight/obese' were greater with higher child (OR 2.33, 95% CI 1.02 to 5.29) and maternal BMI (OR 1.18, CI 1.07 to 1.31), and lower with higher maternal education (OR 0.09, CI 0.02 to 0.34). Compared with 'always overweight/obese' children, odds of 'resolving overweight/obese' were lower with higher maternal BMI (OR 0.87, CI 0.78 to 0.97), and higher with better child physical health (OR 1.06, CI 1.02 to 1.10) and higher maternal age (OR 1.11, CI 1.01 to 1.22) and education (OR 4.07, CI 1.02 to 16.19). Readily available baseline information (child/maternal BMI, maternal age, education and child health) were the strongest predictors of both onset and resolution of overweight/obesity between the primary school and adolescent years. Perinatal, breastfeeding and lifestyle exposures were not strongly predictive. Results could stimulate development of algorithms identifying children most in need of targeted prevention or treatment. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under

  11. Prediction-based dynamic load-sharing heuristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Kumar K.; Devarakonda, Murthy; Iyer, Ravishankar K.

    1993-01-01

    The authors present dynamic load-sharing heuristics that use predicted resource requirements of processes to manage workloads in a distributed system. A previously developed statistical pattern-recognition method is employed for resource prediction. While nonprediction-based heuristics depend on a rapidly changing system status, the new heuristics depend on slowly changing program resource usage patterns. Furthermore, prediction-based heuristics can be more effective since they use future requirements rather than just the current system state. Four prediction-based heuristics, two centralized and two distributed, are presented. Using trace driven simulations, they are compared against random scheduling and two effective nonprediction based heuristics. Results show that the prediction-based centralized heuristics achieve up to 30 percent better response times than the nonprediction centralized heuristic, and that the prediction-based distributed heuristics achieve up to 50 percent improvements relative to their nonprediction counterpart.

  12. Model for Predicting Traffic Signs Functional Service Life – The Republic of Croatia Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Babić

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Traffic signs are the basic elements of communication between the relevant road authorities and road users. They manage, regulate, inform and warn road users to ensure their safe movement throughout transport networks. Traffic signs must be timely visible to all traffic participants in all weather and traffic conditions in order to fulfil their function, which means they must have satisfactory retroreflection properties. This paper presents a research of the deterioration of traffic signs retroreflection. The aim of this article is to develop models that will effectively enable predicting the retroreflection of traffic signs and thus optimize the maintenance activities and replacement of road signs to increase road safety. The research included measurements of retroreflection of retroreflective material Classes I and II (white, red and blue colour and Class III (red and yellow colour. Based on the collected data from the City of Zagreb (Republic of Croatia, the authors developed the models to estimate the functional service life of certain colours and materials used to make traffic signs. Considering that the average coefficient of determination for all the models is between 0.55-0.60, they present an effective tool in the traffic sign maintenance system.

  13. Loading Analysis of Composite Wind Turbine Blade for Fatigue Life Prediction of Adhesively Bonded Root Joint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salimi-Majd, Davood; Azimzadeh, Vahid; Mohammadi, Bijan

    2015-06-01

    Nowadays wind energy is widely used as a non-polluting cost-effective renewable energy resource. During the lifetime of a composite wind turbine which is about 20 years, the rotor blades are subjected to different cyclic loads such as aerodynamics, centrifugal and gravitational forces. These loading conditions, cause to fatigue failure of the blade at the adhesively bonded root joint, where the highest bending moments will occur and consequently, is the most critical zone of the blade. So it is important to estimate the fatigue life of the root joint. The cohesive zone model is one of the best methods for prediction of initiation and propagation of debonding at the root joint. The advantage of this method is the possibility of modeling the debonding without any requirement to the remeshing. However in order to use this approach, it is necessary to analyze the cyclic loading condition at the root joint. For this purpose after implementing a cohesive interface element in the Ansys finite element software, one blade of a horizontal axis wind turbine with 46 m rotor diameter was modelled in full scale. Then after applying loads on the blade under different condition of the blade in a full rotation, the critical condition of the blade is obtained based on the delamination index and also the load ratio on the root joint in fatigue cycles is calculated. These data are the inputs for fatigue damage growth analysis of the root joint by using CZM approach that will be investigated in future work.

  14. A new crack growth model for life prediction under random loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ouk Sub; Chen, Zhi Wei

    1999-01-01

    The load interaction effect in variable amplitude fatigue test is a very important issue for correctly predicting fatigue life. Some prediction methods for retardation are reviewed and the problems discussed. The so-called 'under-load' effect is also of importance for a prediction model to work properly under random load spectrum. A new model that is simple in form but combines overload plastic zone and residual stress considerations together with Elber's closure concept is proposed to fully take account of the load-interaction effects including both over-load and under-load effects. Applying this new model to complex load sequence is explored here. Simulations of tests show the improvement of the new model over other models. The best prediction (mostly closely resembling test curve) is given by the newly proposed Chen-Lee model

  15. Residual Stress Estimation and Fatigue Life Prediction of an Autofrettaged Pressure Vessel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Kyung Jin; Kim, Eun Kyum; Koh, Seung Kee [Kunsan Nat’l Univ., Kunsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-09-15

    Fatigue failure of an autofrettaged pressure vessel with a groove at the outside surface occurs owing to the fatigue crack initiation and propagation at the groove root. In order to predict the fatigue life of the autofrettaged pressure vessel, residual stresses in the autofrettaged pressure vessel were evaluated using the finite element method, and the fatigue properties of the pressure vessel steel were obtained from the fatigue tests. Fatigue life of a pressure vessel obtained through summation of the crack initiation and propagation lives was calculated to be 2,598 cycles for an 80% autofrettaged pressure vessel subjected to a pulsating internal pressure of 424 MPa.

  16. Contribution to life-time predictions of gas turbine components under cyclic load

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoelscher, R.

    1982-02-15

    The low cycle fatique life of gas turbine components is analysed using the turbine blade of the ATAR 101 F jet engine turbine as example. The results show that, among other things thermal stresses during start-up and shut-off cause considerable damage to the material. Tests using a model rig showed that damage caused by material creep and LCF-mechanisms stongly depended on cyclic parameters such as temperature, temperature development, and power etc. Two long-term tests confirm that the Manson model can be used to give a reasonable prediction of turbine blade life.

  17. Wealth and happiness across the world: material prosperity predicts life evaluation, whereas psychosocial prosperity predicts positive feeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diener, Ed; Ng, Weiting; Harter, James; Arora, Raksha

    2010-07-01

    The Gallup World Poll, the first representative sample of planet Earth, was used to explore the reasons why happiness is associated with higher income, including the meeting of basic needs, fulfillment of psychological needs, increasing satisfaction with one's standard of living, and public goods. Across the globe, the association of log income with subjective well-being was linear but convex with raw income, indicating the declining marginal effects of income on subjective well-being. Income was a moderately strong predictor of life evaluation but a much weaker predictor of positive and negative feelings. Possessing luxury conveniences and satisfaction with standard of living were also strong predictors of life evaluation. Although the meeting of basic and psychological needs mediated the effects of income on life evaluation to some degree, the strongest mediation was provided by standard of living and ownership of conveniences. In contrast, feelings were most associated with the fulfillment of psychological needs: learning, autonomy, using one's skills, respect, and the ability to count on others in an emergency. Thus, two separate types of prosperity-economic and social psychological-best predict different types of well-being.

  18. Profiling crop pollinators: life history traits predict habitat use and crop visitation by Mediterranean wild bees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisanty, Gideon; Mandelik, Yael

    2015-04-01

    Wild pollinators, bees in particular, may greatly contribute to crop pollination and provide a safety net against declines in commercial pollinators. However, the identity, life history traits, and environmental sensitivities of main crop pollinator species.have received limited attention. These are crucial for predicting pollination services of different communities and for developing management practices that enhance crop pollinators. We sampled wild bees in three crop systems (almond, confection sunflower, and seed watermelon) in a mosaic Israeli Mediterranean landscape. Bees were sampled in field/orchard edges and interiors, and in seminatural scrub surrounding the fields/orchards. We also analyzed land cover at 50-2500 m radii around fields/orchards. We used this data to distinguish crop from non-crop pollinators based on a set of life history traits (nesting, lecty, sociality, body size) linked to habitat preference and crop visitation. Bee abundance and species richness decreased from the surrounding seminatural habitat to the field/orchard interior, especially across the seminatural habitat-field edge ecotone. Thus, although rich bee communities were found near fields, only small fractions crossed the ecotone and visited crop flowers in substantial numbers. The bee assemblage in agricultural fields/orchards and on crop flowers was dominated by ground-nesting bees of the tribe Halictini, which tend to nest within fields. Bees' habitat preferences were determined mainly by nesting guild, whereas crop visitation was determined mainly by sociality. Lecty and body size also affected both measures. The percentage of surrounding seminatural habitat at 250-2500 m radii had a positive effect on wild bee diversity in field edges, for all bee guilds, while at 50-100 m radii, only aboveground nesters were positively affected. In sum, we found that crop and non-crop pollinators are distinguished by behavioral and morphological traits. Hence, analysis of life

  19. Prediction of expected years of life using whole-genome markers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo de los Campos

    Full Text Available Genetic factors are believed to account for 25% of the interindividual differences in Years of Life (YL among humans. However, the genetic loci that have thus far been found to be associated with YL explain a very small proportion of the expected genetic variation in this trait, perhaps reflecting the complexity of the trait and the limitations of traditional association studies when applied to traits affected by a large number of small-effect genes. Using data from the Framingham Heart Study and statistical methods borrowed largely from the field of animal genetics (whole-genome prediction, WGP, we developed a WGP model for the study of YL and evaluated the extent to which thousands of genetic variants across the genome examined simultaneously can be used to predict interindividual differences in YL. We find that a sizable proportion of differences in YL--which were unexplained by age at entry, sex, smoking and BMI--can be accounted for and predicted using WGP methods. The contribution of genomic information to prediction accuracy was even higher than that of smoking and body mass index (BMI combined; two predictors that are considered among the most important life-shortening factors. We evaluated the impacts of familial relationships and population structure (as described by the first two marker-derived principal components and concluded that in our dataset population structure explained partially, but not fully the gains in prediction accuracy obtained with WGP. Further inspection of prediction accuracies by age at death indicated that most of the gains in predictive ability achieved with WGP were due to the increased accuracy of prediction of early mortality, perhaps reflecting the ability of WGP to capture differences in genetic risk to deadly diseases such as cancer, which are most often responsible for early mortality in our sample.

  20. Evaluation of creep residual life for modified 9Cr-1Mo steel based on Omega method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nonaka, Isamu; Torihata, Shoji; Kihara, Shigemitu; Umaki, Hideo; Maruyama, Kouichi.

    1997-01-01

    In order to study the accuracy of creep residual life prediction by the Omega method which is based on creep deformation, a series of creep tests on modified 9Cr-1Mo steel were conducted at 500degC, 550degC and 600degC, and the Omega method was applied to the residual life estimation. The main results obtained are as follows: (1) There was a obvious linear portion, which corresponded to the tertiary creep, in the relationship between logarithm of strain and strain. So it was easy to define the Omega value as a gradient of linear portion. (2) It was proved that the Omega value depended on stress and temperature in such a way as it was the larger, the lower the stress and the lower the temperature. (3) By using the Omega value and strain rate which were determined experimentally, the residual life could be predicted within a factor of 1.5 at the stage of 50% and 80% of actual life. It was confirmed that the accuracy of this method was higher than that of the former method based on rupture time. (4) To apply this method to the residual life evaluation of operating plant materials, the Omega value has to be determined in the lower stress condition. So it is important to develop the extrapolation method of the Omega value based on the laboratory acceleration test to the longer service life. (author)

  1. Inculcating home economics based life skills in rural women in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Inculcating home economics based life skills in rural women in Anambra state ... Poverty among rural women in Nigeria hinders the economic and social ... could be inculcated among the rural women using a range of networking approaches.

  2. Neural Fuzzy Inference System-Based Weather Prediction Model and Its Precipitation Predicting Experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Lu

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We propose a weather prediction model in this article based on neural network and fuzzy inference system (NFIS-WPM, and then apply it to predict daily fuzzy precipitation given meteorological premises for testing. The model consists of two parts: the first part is the “fuzzy rule-based neural network”, which simulates sequential relations among fuzzy sets using artificial neural network; and the second part is the “neural fuzzy inference system”, which is based on the first part, but could learn new fuzzy rules from the previous ones according to the algorithm we proposed. NFIS-WPM (High Pro and NFIS-WPM (Ave are improved versions of this model. It is well known that the need for accurate weather prediction is apparent when considering the benefits. However, the excessive pursuit of accuracy in weather prediction makes some of the “accurate” prediction results meaningless and the numerical prediction model is often complex and time-consuming. By adapting this novel model to a precipitation prediction problem, we make the predicted outcomes of precipitation more accurate and the prediction methods simpler than by using the complex numerical forecasting model that would occupy large computation resources, be time-consuming and which has a low predictive accuracy rate. Accordingly, we achieve more accurate predictive precipitation results than by using traditional artificial neural networks that have low predictive accuracy.

  3. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced vehicular heat engines: Volume 1. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khandelwal, P.K.; Provenzano, N.J.; Schneider, W.E. [Allison Engine Co., Indianapolis, IN (United States)

    1996-02-01

    One of the major challenges involved in the use of ceramic materials is ensuring adequate strength and durability. This activity has developed methodology which can be used during the design phase to predict the structural behavior of ceramic components. The effort involved the characterization of injection molded and hot isostatic pressed (HIPed) PY-6 silicon nitride, the development of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technology, and the development of analytical life prediction methodology. Four failure modes are addressed: fast fracture, slow crack growth, creep, and oxidation. The techniques deal with failures initiating at the surface as well as internal to the component. The life prediction methodology for fast fracture and slow crack growth have been verified using a variety of confirmatory tests. The verification tests were conducted at room and elevated temperatures up to a maximum of 1371 {degrees}C. The tests involved (1) flat circular disks subjected to bending stresses and (2) high speed rotating spin disks. Reasonable correlation was achieved for a variety of test conditions and failure mechanisms. The predictions associated with surface failures proved to be optimistic, requiring re-evaluation of the components` initial fast fracture strengths. Correlation was achieved for the spin disks which failed in fast fracture from internal flaws. Time dependent elevated temperature slow crack growth spin disk failures were also successfully predicted.

  4. Theoretical bases analysis of scientific prediction on marketing principles

    OpenAIRE

    A.S. Rosohata

    2012-01-01

    The article presents an overview categorical apparatus of scientific predictions and theoretical foundations results of scientific forecasting. They are integral part of effective management of economic activities. The approaches to the prediction of scientists in different fields of Social science and the categories modification of scientific prediction, based on principles of marketing are proposed.

  5. Speaker Prediction based on Head Orientations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rienks, R.J.; Poppe, Ronald Walter; van Otterlo, M.; Poel, Mannes; Poel, M.; Nijholt, A.; Nijholt, Antinus

    2005-01-01

    To gain insight into gaze behavior in meetings, this paper compares the results from a Naive Bayes classifier, Neural Networks and humans on speaker prediction in four-person meetings given solely the azimuth head angles. The Naive Bayes classifier scored 69.4% correctly, Neural Networks 62.3% and

  6. Imagining life with an ostomy: Does a video intervention improve quality-of-life predictions for a medical condition that may elicit disgust?☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angott, Andrea M.; Comerford, David A.; Ubel, Peter A.

    2014-01-01

    Objective To test a video intervention as a way to improve predictions of mood and quality-of-life with an emotionally evocative medical condition. Such predictions are typically inaccurate, which can be consequential for decision making. Method In Part 1, people presently or formerly living with ostomies predicted how watching a video depicting a person changing his ostomy pouch would affect mood and quality-of-life forecasts for life with an ostomy. In Part 2, participants from the general public read a description about life with an ostomy; half also watched a video depicting a person changing his ostomy pouch. Participants’ quality-of-life and mood forecasts for life with an ostomy were assessed. Results Contrary to our expectations, and the expectations of people presently or formerly living with ostomies, the video did not reduce mood or quality-of-life estimates, even among participants high in trait disgust sensitivity. Among low-disgust participants, watching the video increased quality-of-life predictions for ostomy. Conclusion Video interventions may improve mood and quality-of-life forecasts for medical conditions, including those that may elicit disgust, such as ostomy. Practice implications Video interventions focusing on patients’ experience of illness continue to show promise as components of decision aids, even for emotionally charged health states such as ostomy. PMID:23177398

  7. Anisotropic Elastoplastic Damage Mechanics Method to Predict Fatigue Life of the Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hualiang Wan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available New damage mechanics method is proposed to predict the low-cycle fatigue life of metallic structures under multiaxial loading. The microstructure mechanical model is proposed to simulate anisotropic elastoplastic damage evolution. As the micromodel depends on few material parameters, the present method is very concise and suitable for engineering application. The material parameters in damage evolution equation are determined by fatigue experimental data of standard specimens. By employing further development on the ANSYS platform, the anisotropic elastoplastic damage mechanics-finite element method is developed. The fatigue crack propagation life of satellite structure is predicted using the present method and the computational results comply with the experimental data very well.

  8. Long-term Creep Life Prediction for Type 316LN Stainless Steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woo Gon; Ryu, Woo Seog; Kim, Sung Ho; Lee, Chan Bok

    2007-01-01

    Since Sodium Fast Cooled Reactor (SFR) components are designed to be use for more than 30 years at a high temperature of 550 .deg. C, one of the most important properties of these components is the long term creep behavior. To accurately predict the long-term creep life of the components, it is essential to achieve reliable long-term test data beyond their design life. But, it is difficult to actually obtain long duration data because it is time-consuming work. So far, a variety of time-temperature parameters (TTPs) have been developed to predict a long-term creep life from shorter-time tests at higher temperatures. Among them, the Larson-Miller, the Orr-Sherby-Dorn, the Manson-Harferd and the Manson-Succop parameters have been typically used. None of these parameters has an overwhelming preference, and they have certain inherent restrictions imposed on their data in the application of the TTPs parameters. Meanwhile, it has been reported that the Minimum Commitment Method (MCM) proposed by Manson and Ensign has a greater flexibility for a creep rupture analysis. Thus, the MCM will be useful as another approach. Until now, the applicability of the MCM has not been investigated for type 316LN SS because of insufficient creep data. In this paper, the MCM was applied to predict a long-term creep life of type 316LN stainless steel (SS). Lots of creep rupture data was collected through literature surveys and the experimental data of KAERI. Using the short-term experimental data for under 2,000 hours, a longer-time rupture above 105 hours was predicted by the MCM at temperatures from 550 .deg. C to 800 .deg. C

  9. A Reliability-Based Determination of Economic Life of Marine power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atua, K.

    1999-01-01

    The reliability-based life approach is utilized. Selective failure modes of marine power plants are used for illustration. A case study of the Egyptian Commercial Fleet owned by the Public Sector Company was analyzed and used to establish a demonstration of the expected economic life based on local operating and maintenance conditions. The data acquired is analyzed and failure trend is derived for each failure mode. Probabilistic techniques are used to randomly generate numbers and times of occurrence of different failure modes. The reliability analysis is performed on the life span expected by the manufacture to predict the total number of failures, dependent failures, and cost of failures. Total expenditure due to random failure and cost of scheduled maintenance together with the annual income are utilized (using the time value of money) to determine the economic life of the plant. Conclusions are derived and recommendations for the enhancement of this work in the future are made

  10. An Extrapolation of a Radical Equation More Accurately Predicts Shelf Life of Frozen Biological Matrices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vore, Karl W; Fatahi, Nadia M; Sass, John E

    2016-08-01

    Arrhenius modeling of analyte recovery at increased temperatures to predict long-term colder storage stability of biological raw materials, reagents, calibrators, and controls is standard practice in the diagnostics industry. Predicting subzero temperature stability using the same practice is frequently criticized but nevertheless heavily relied upon. We compared the ability to predict analyte recovery during frozen storage using 3 separate strategies: traditional accelerated studies with Arrhenius modeling, and extrapolation of recovery at 20% of shelf life using either ordinary least squares or a radical equation y = B1x(0.5) + B0. Computer simulations were performed to establish equivalence of statistical power to discern the expected changes during frozen storage or accelerated stress. This was followed by actual predictive and follow-up confirmatory testing of 12 chemistry and immunoassay analytes. Linear extrapolations tended to be the most conservative in the predicted percent recovery, reducing customer and patient risk. However, the majority of analytes followed a rate of change that slowed over time, which was fit best to a radical equation of the form y = B1x(0.5) + B0. Other evidence strongly suggested that the slowing of the rate was not due to higher-order kinetics, but to changes in the matrix during storage. Predicting shelf life of frozen products through extrapolation of early initial real-time storage analyte recovery should be considered the most accurate method. Although in this study the time required for a prediction was longer than a typical accelerated testing protocol, there are less potential sources of error, reduced costs, and a lower expenditure of resources. © 2016 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

  11. Prediction of fatigue life under service loading using the relative method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buch, A.

    1982-01-01

    Fatigue life estimates obtained with the local strain approach (LSA) and with the conventional nominal stress approach (NSA) were compared with experimental results obtained on notched AlCuMg2 aircraft material specimens with flight simulation random tensile loading. The effect of change of the reference stress, of the loading program and of some changes in the loading frequency distribution, on the ratio Nsub(exp)/Nsub(pred) was investigated. A material strain-life curve, a cyclic stress-strain curve. The Neuber-Topper rule Ksub(sigma) x Ksub(epsilon) = K 2 = const. and a K value estimated with an exact two-parameter notch factor formula for the case R = 0, N = 10 7 were used for life predictions. (orig./RW) [de

  12. [A predictive model for the quality of sexual life in hysterectomized women].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urrutia, María Teresa; Araya, Alejandra; Rivera, Soledad; Viviani, Paola; Villarroel, Luis

    2007-03-01

    The effects of hysterectomy on sexuality has been extensively studied. To establish a model to predict the quality of sexual life in hysterectomized women, six months after surgery. Analytical, longitudinal and prospective study of 90 hysterectomized women aged 45+/-7 years. Two structured interviews at the time of surgery and six months later were carried out to determine the characteristics of sexuality and communication within the couple. In the two interviews, communication and the quality of sexual life were described as "good" in 72 and 77% of women, respectively (NS). The variables that had a 40% influence on the quality of sexual life sixth months after surgery, were oophorectomy status, the presence of orgasm, the characteristics of communication and the basal sexuality with the couple. The sexuality of the hysterectomized women will depend, on a great extent, of pre-surgical variables. Therefore, it is important to consider these variables for the education of hysterectomized women.

  13. A New Energy-Critical Plane Damage Parameter for Multiaxial Fatigue Life Prediction of Turbine Blades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng-Yong Yu

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available As one of fracture critical components of an aircraft engine, accurate life prediction of a turbine blade to disk attachment is significant for ensuring the engine structural integrity and reliability. Fatigue failure of a turbine blade is often caused under multiaxial cyclic loadings at high temperatures. In this paper, considering different failure types, a new energy-critical plane damage parameter is proposed for multiaxial fatigue life prediction, and no extra fitted material constants will be needed for practical applications. Moreover, three multiaxial models with maximum damage parameters on the critical plane are evaluated under tension-compression and tension-torsion loadings. Experimental data of GH4169 under proportional and non-proportional fatigue loadings and a case study of a turbine disk-blade contact system are introduced for model validation. Results show that model predictions by Wang-Brown (WB and Fatemi-Socie (FS models with maximum damage parameters are conservative and acceptable. For the turbine disk-blade contact system, both of the proposed damage parameters and Smith-Watson-Topper (SWT model show reasonably acceptable correlations with its field number of flight cycles. However, life estimations of the turbine blade reveal that the definition of the maximum damage parameter is not reasonable for the WB model but effective for both the FS and SWT models.

  14. An Adaptive Recurrent Neural Network for Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Lithium-ion Batteries

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics is an emerging science of predicting the health condition of a system (or its components) based upon current and previous system states. A reliable...

  15. Factors predicting quality of work life among nurses in tertiary-level hospitals, Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akter, N; Akkadechanunt, T; Chontawan, R; Klunklin, A

    2018-06-01

    This study examined the level of quality of work life and predictability of years of education, monthly income, years of experience, job stress, organizational commitment and work environment on quality of work life among nurses in tertiary-level hospitals in the People's Republic of Bangladesh. There is an acute shortage of nurses worldwide including Bangladesh. Quality of work life is important for quality of patient care and nurse retention. Nurses in Bangladesh are fighting to provide quality care for emerging health problems for the achievement of sustainable development goals. We collected data from 288 randomly selected registered nurses, from six tertiary-level hospitals. All nurses were requested to fill questionnaire consisted of Demographic Data Sheet, Quality of Nursing Work Life Survey, Expanded Nursing Stress Scale, Questionnaire of Organizational Commitment and Practice Environment Scale of the Nursing Work Index. Data were analysed by descriptive statistics and multiple regression. The quality of work life as perceived by nurses in Bangladesh was at moderate level. Monthly income was found as the best predictor followed by work environment, organizational commitment and job stress. A higher monthly income helps nurses to fulfil their personal needs; positive work environment helps to provide quality care to the patients. Quality of work life and predictors measured by self-report only may not reflect the original picture of the quality of work life among nurses. Findings provide information for nursing and health policymakers to develop policies to improve quality of work life among nurses that can contribute to quality of nursing care. This includes the working environment, commitment to the organization and measures to reduce job stress. © 2017 International Council of Nurses.

  16. Predicting tool life in turning operations using neural networks and image processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikołajczyk, T.; Nowicki, K.; Bustillo, A.; Yu Pimenov, D.

    2018-05-01

    A two-step method is presented for the automatic prediction of tool life in turning operations. First, experimental data are collected for three cutting edges under the same constant processing conditions. In these experiments, the parameter of tool wear, VB, is measured with conventional methods and the same parameter is estimated using Neural Wear, a customized software package that combines flank wear image recognition and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Second, an ANN model of tool life is trained with the data collected from the first two cutting edges and the subsequent model is evaluated on two different subsets for the third cutting edge: the first subset is obtained from the direct measurement of tool wear and the second is obtained from the Neural Wear software that estimates tool wear using edge images. Although the complete-automated solution, Neural Wear software for tool wear recognition plus the ANN model of tool life prediction, presented a slightly higher error than the direct measurements, it was within the same range and can meet all industrial requirements. These results confirm that the combination of image recognition software and ANN modelling could potentially be developed into a useful industrial tool for low-cost estimation of tool life in turning operations.

  17. How do Major, Violent and Nonviolent Opposition Campaigns, Impact Predicted Life Expectancy at birth?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith Stoddard

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This study compared the effects of major violent and nonviolent opposition campaigns for regime change, on predicted life expectancy at birth. The study measured life expectancy five and ten years after the campaign ended, so that deaths which occurred during the campaign would not be included in the metric, and thus enabling the study of changes made in the state on the social determinants affecting longevity, after the campaign was over. Life expectancy is one of the best reported World Development Indicators and is considered to be a good indication of the overall health and general living conditions of the state and therefore is an ideal indicator to reflect the changes made in the state following a major campaign. The results of this analysis showed that states have a hard time recovering from a major opposition campaign and initially drop behind the growth trend in the world average for predicted life expectancy at birth. But, the type of campaign that was waged and whether it was successful, greatly affects the state’s ability to recover. Encouragingly by a decade after the campaign ends, states that experienced a nonviolent campaign that was successful had caught up to the world average and inched ahead of it. This shows that on this important development indicator, new governments that were ushered into power by nonviolent social movements, had made positive changes in the state that enabled it to surpass world averages.

  18. The effect of discounting, different mortality reduction schemes and predictive cohort life tables on risk acceptability criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rackwitz, Ruediger

    2006-01-01

    Technical facilities should be optimal with respect to benefits and cost. Optimization of technical facilities involving risks for human life and limb require an acceptability criterion and suitable discount rates both for the public and the operator depending on for whom the optimization is carried out. The life quality index is presented and embedded into modem socio-economic concepts. A general risk acceptability criterion is derived. The societal life saving cost to be used in optimization as life saving or compensation cost and the societal willingness-to-pay based on the societal value of a statistical life or on the societal life quality index are developed. Different mortality reduction schemes are studied. Also, predictive cohort life tables are derived and applied. Discount rates γ must be long-term averages in view of the time horizon of some 20 to more than 100 years for the facilities of interest and net of inflation and taxes. While the operator may use long-term averages from the financial market for his cost-benefit analysis the assessment of interest rates for investments of the public into risk reduction is more difficult. The classical Ramsey model decomposes the real interest rate (=output growth rate) into the rate of time preference of consumption and the rate of economical growth multiplied by the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption. It is proposed to use a relatively small interest rate of 3% implying a rate of time preference of consumption of about 1%. This appears intergenerationally acceptable from an ethical point of view. Risk-consequence curves are derived for an example

  19. Fatigue-creep life prediction of 21/4Cr-1Mo steel under combined tension-torsion at 600degC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inoue, Tatsuo; Kishi, Shigeru; Koto, Hiroyuki; Takahashi, Yukio.

    1991-01-01

    From the above discussion on the comparison between predicted and experimental lives in this project, the followings are suggested. The Mises equivalent stress is not a successful parameter to describe the multiaxial fatigue-creep damage, while the Huddleston's stress gives better prediction. SRP, Ostergren method and Lemaitre-Plumtree-Chaboche method give comparatively good estimation of life, though these methods predict more or less the greater damage than the experiment under pure torsion and in-phase cycling, and cannot predict the life under out-of-phase cycling. The reason is considered to be owing to employment of the Mises equivalent strain, which might be possibly improved by using more sophisticated equivalent strain such as the strain defined on the Γ-plane. The life prediction based on the analytical stress-strain relation gives almost similar results as that based on the experimental data. It suggests the applicability of the inelastic constitutive moeles to give the fundamental data for life prediction. The subcommittee wishes to express her gratitude to the head Committee on High Temperature Strength, JSMS, for supporting the project, and acknowledgement is due to the Ministry of Education and Culture for providing Grant-in-Aid for Co-operative Research A (No. 61302036 and 01302026). (author)

  20. Prediction-error of Prediction Error (PPE)-based Reversible Data Hiding

    OpenAIRE

    Wu, Han-Zhou; Wang, Hong-Xia; Shi, Yun-Qing

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a novel reversible data hiding (RDH) algorithm for gray-scaled images, in which the prediction-error of prediction error (PPE) of a pixel is used to carry the secret data. In the proposed method, the pixels to be embedded are firstly predicted with their neighboring pixels to obtain the corresponding prediction errors (PEs). Then, by exploiting the PEs of the neighboring pixels, the prediction of the PEs of the pixels can be determined. And, a sorting technique based on th...

  1. Fatigue Life Prediction in Rapid Die Casting - Preliminary Work in View of Current Research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chuan Huat Ng; Grote, Karl-Heinrich; Baehr, Ruediger

    2007-01-01

    Numerical simulation technique as a prediction tool is slowly adopted in metal casting industry for predicting design modelling solidification analysis. The reasons for this activity is found in the need to further enhance the geometrical design and mechanical properties of the tool design and the correct prediction methodology to fulfil industrial needs. The present state of numerical simulation capabilities in rapid die casting technologies is reviewed and the failure mode mechanisms of thermal fatigue, aimed at developing a numerical simulation with a systematic design guidance for predicting the thermal cyclic loading analysis and improvement is presented along with several other methods. The economic benefits of a numerical simulation technique in die casting are limited to tool life time, mechanical properties and design guidance. The extensive computer capabilities of a numerical simulation with a systematic design guidance methodology are exploited to provide a solution for flexible design, mechanical properties and mould life time. Related research carried out worldwide by different organisations and academic institutions are discussed

  2. Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Gas Turbine Engine using Autoregressive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahsan Shazaib

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Gas turbine (GT engines are known for their high availability and reliability and are extensively used for power generation, marine and aero-applications. Maintenance of such complex machines should be done proactively to reduce cost and sustain high availability of the GT. The aim of this paper is to explore the use of autoregressive (AR models to predict remaining useful life (RUL of a GT engine. The Turbofan Engine data from NASA benchmark data repository is used as case study. The parametric investigation is performed to check on any effect of changing model parameter on modelling accuracy. Results shows that a single sensory data cannot accurately predict RUL of GT and further research need to be carried out by incorporating multi-sensory data. Furthermore, the predictions made using AR model seems to give highly pessimistic values for RUL of GT.

  3. Life prediction of different commercial dental implants as influence by uncertainties in their fatigue material properties and loading conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez, M A

    2012-12-01

    Probabilistic analyses allow the effect of uncertainty in system parameters to be determined. In the literature, many researchers have investigated static loading effects on dental implants. However, the intrinsic variability and uncertainty of most of the main problem parameters are not accounted for. The objective of this research was to apply a probabilistic computational approach to predict the fatigue life of three different commercial dental implants considering the variability and uncertainty in their fatigue material properties and loading conditions. For one of the commercial dental implants, the influence of its diameter in the fatigue life performance was also studied. This stochastic technique was based on the combination of a probabilistic finite element method (PFEM) and a cumulative damage approach known as B-model. After 6 million of loading cycles, local failure probabilities of 0.3, 0.4 and 0.91 were predicted for the Lifecore, Avinent and GMI implants, respectively (diameter of 3.75mm). The influence of the diameter for the GMI implant was studied and the results predicted a local failure probability of 0.91 and 0.1 for the 3.75mm and 5mm, respectively. In all cases the highest failure probability was located at the upper screw-threads. Therefore, the probabilistic methodology proposed herein may be a useful tool for performing a qualitative comparison between different commercial dental implants. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Flexural fatigue life prediction of closed hat-section using materially nonlinear axial fatigue characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razzaq, Zia

    1989-01-01

    Straight or curved hat-section members are often used as structural stiffeners in aircraft. For instance, they are employed as stiffeners for the dorsal skin as well as in the aerial refueling adjacent area structure in F-106 aircraft. The flanges of the hat-section are connected to the aircraft skin. Thus, the portion of the skin closing the hat-section interacts with the section itself when resisting the stresses due to service loads. The flexural fatigue life of such a closed section is estimated using materially nonlinear axial fatigue characteristics. It should be recognized that when a structural shape is subjected to bending, the fatigue life at the neutral axis is infinity since the normal stresses are zero at that location. Conversely, the fatigue life at the extreme fibers where the normal bending stresses are maximum can be expected to be finite. Thus, different fatigue life estimates can be visualized at various distances from the neural axis. The problem becomes compounded further when significant portions away from the neutral axis are stressed into plastic range. A theoretical analysis of the closed hat-section subjected to flexural cyclic loading is first conducted. The axial fatigue characteristics together with the related axial fatigue life formula and its inverted form given by Manson and Muralidharan are adopted for an aluminum alloy used in aircraft construction. A closed-form expression for predicting the flexural fatigue life is then derived for the closed hat-section including materially nonlinear action. A computer program is written to conduct a study of the variables such as the thicknesses of the hat-section and the skin, and the type of alloy used. The study has provided a fundamental understanding of the flexural fatigue life characteristics of a practical structural component used in aircraft when materially nonlinear action is present.

  5. Fatigue, fracture, and life prediction criteria for composite materials in magnets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, F.M.G.

    1990-06-01

    An explosively-bonded copper/Inconel 718/copper laminate conductor was proposed to withstand the severe face compression stresses in the central core of the Alcator C-MOD tokamak toroidal field (TF) magnet. Due to the severe duty of the TF magnet, it is critical that an accurate estimate of useful life be determined. As part of the effort to formulate an appropriate life prediction, fatigue crack growth experiments were performed on the laminate as well as its components. Metallographic evaluation of the laminate interface revealed many shear bands in the Inconel 718. Shear bands and shear band cracks were produced in the Inconel 718 as a result of the explosion bonding process. These shear bands were shown to have a detrimental effect on the crack growth behavior of the laminate, by significantly reducing the load carrying capability of the reinforcement layer and providing for easy crack propagation paths. Fatigue crack growth rate was found not only to be dependent on temperature but also on orientation. Fatigue cracks grew faster in directions which contained shear bands in the plane of the propagating crack. Fractography showed crack advancement by fatigue cracking in the Inconel 718 and ductile tearing of the copper at the interface. However, further away from the interfaces, the copper exhibited fatigue striations indicating that cracks were now propagating by fatigue. Laminate life prediction results showed a strong dependence on shear band orientation, and exhibited little variation between room temperature and 77 degree K. Predicted life of this laminate was lower when the crack propagation was along a shear band than when crack propagation was across the shear bands. Shear bands appear to have a dominating effect on crack growth behavior

  6. The wind power prediction research based on mind evolutionary algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Ling; Zhao, Xinjian; Ji, Tianming; Miao, Jingwen; Cui, Haina

    2018-04-01

    When the wind power is connected to the power grid, its characteristics of fluctuation, intermittent and randomness will affect the stability of the power system. The wind power prediction can guarantee the power quality and reduce the operating cost of power system. There were some limitations in several traditional wind power prediction methods. On the basis, the wind power prediction method based on Mind Evolutionary Algorithm (MEA) is put forward and a prediction model is provided. The experimental results demonstrate that MEA performs efficiently in term of the wind power prediction. The MEA method has broad prospect of engineering application.

  7. Leaf and life history traits predict plant growth in a green roof ecosystem.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy Lundholm

    Full Text Available Green roof ecosystems are constructed to provide services such as stormwater retention and urban temperature reductions. Green roofs with shallow growing media represent stressful conditions for plant survival, thus plants that survive and grow are important for maximizing economic and ecological benefits. While field trials are essential for selecting appropriate green roof plants, we wanted to determine whether plant leaf traits could predict changes in abundance (growth to provide a more general framework for plant selection. We quantified leaf traits and derived life-history traits (Grime's C-S-R strategies for 13 species used in a four-year green roof experiment involving five plant life forms. Changes in canopy density in monocultures and mixtures containing one to five life forms were determined and related to plant traits using multiple regression. We expected traits related to stress-tolerance would characterize the species that best grew in this relatively harsh setting. While all species survived to the end of the experiment, canopy species diversity in mixture treatments was usually much lower than originally planted. Most species grew slower in mixture compared to monoculture, suggesting that interspecific competition reduced canopy diversity. Species dominant in mixture treatments tended to be fast-growing ruderals and included both native and non-native species. Specific leaf area was a consistently strong predictor of final biomass and the change in abundance in both monoculture and mixture treatments. Some species in contrasting life-form groups showed compensatory dynamics, suggesting that life-form mixtures can maximize resilience of cover and biomass in the face of environmental fluctuations. This study confirms that plant traits can be used to predict growth performance in green roof ecosystems. While rapid canopy growth is desirable for green roofs, maintenance of species diversity may require engineering of conditions that

  8. Leaf and life history traits predict plant growth in a green roof ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundholm, Jeremy; Heim, Amy; Tran, Stephanie; Smith, Tyler

    2014-01-01

    Green roof ecosystems are constructed to provide services such as stormwater retention and urban temperature reductions. Green roofs with shallow growing media represent stressful conditions for plant survival, thus plants that survive and grow are important for maximizing economic and ecological benefits. While field trials are essential for selecting appropriate green roof plants, we wanted to determine whether plant leaf traits could predict changes in abundance (growth) to provide a more general framework for plant selection. We quantified leaf traits and derived life-history traits (Grime's C-S-R strategies) for 13 species used in a four-year green roof experiment involving five plant life forms. Changes in canopy density in monocultures and mixtures containing one to five life forms were determined and related to plant traits using multiple regression. We expected traits related to stress-tolerance would characterize the species that best grew in this relatively harsh setting. While all species survived to the end of the experiment, canopy species diversity in mixture treatments was usually much lower than originally planted. Most species grew slower in mixture compared to monoculture, suggesting that interspecific competition reduced canopy diversity. Species dominant in mixture treatments tended to be fast-growing ruderals and included both native and non-native species. Specific leaf area was a consistently strong predictor of final biomass and the change in abundance in both monoculture and mixture treatments. Some species in contrasting life-form groups showed compensatory dynamics, suggesting that life-form mixtures can maximize resilience of cover and biomass in the face of environmental fluctuations. This study confirms that plant traits can be used to predict growth performance in green roof ecosystems. While rapid canopy growth is desirable for green roofs, maintenance of species diversity may require engineering of conditions that favor less

  9. Cyclic softening as a parameter for prediction of remnant creep rupture life of a Indian reduced activation ferritic–martensitic (IN-RAFM) steel subjected to fatigue exposures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sarkar, Aritra, E-mail: aritra@igcar.gov.in [Metallurgy and Materials Group, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam 603102, Tamil Nadu (India); Vijayanand, V.D.; Shankar, Vani; Parameswaran, P.; Sandhya, R.; Laha, K.; Mathew, M.D.; Jayakumar, T. [Metallurgy and Materials Group, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam 603102, Tamil Nadu (India); Rajendrakumar, E. [Institute for Plasma Research, Bhat, Gandhinagar, Gujarat (India)

    2014-12-15

    Sequential fatigue-creep tests were conducted on Indian reduced activation ferritic–martensitic steel at 823 K leading to sharp decrease in residual creep life with increase in prior fatigue exposures. Extensive recovery of martensitic-lath structure taking place during fatigue deformation, manifested as cyclic softening in the cyclic stress response, shortens the residual creep life. Based on the experimental results, cyclic softening occurring during fatigue stage can be correlated with residual creep life, evolving in an empirical model which predicts residual creep life as a function of cyclic softening. Predicted creep lives for specimens pre-cycled at various strain amplitudes are explained on the basis of mechanism of cyclic softening.

  10. Size-based predictions of food web patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Lai; Hartvig, Martin; Knudsen, Kim

    2014-01-01

    We employ size-based theoretical arguments to derive simple analytic predictions of ecological patterns and properties of natural communities: size-spectrum exponent, maximum trophic level, and susceptibility to invasive species. The predictions are brought about by assuming that an infinite number...... of species are continuously distributed on a size-trait axis. It is, however, an open question whether such predictions are valid for a food web with a finite number of species embedded in a network structure. We address this question by comparing the size-based predictions to results from dynamic food web...... simulations with varying species richness. To this end, we develop a new size- and trait-based food web model that can be simplified into an analytically solvable size-based model. We confirm existing solutions for the size distribution and derive novel predictions for maximum trophic level and invasion...

  11. Base Oils Biodegradability Prediction with Data Mining Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malika Trabelsi

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we apply various data mining techniques including continuous numeric and discrete classification prediction models of base oils biodegradability, with emphasis on improving prediction accuracy. The results show that highly biodegradable oils can be better predicted through numeric models. In contrast, classification models did not uncover a similar dichotomy. With the exception of Memory Based Reasoning and Decision Trees, tested classification techniques achieved high classification prediction. However, the technique of Decision Trees helped uncover the most significant predictors. A simple classification rule derived based on this predictor resulted in good classification accuracy. The application of this rule enables efficient classification of base oils into either low or high biodegradability classes with high accuracy. For the latter, a higher precision biodegradability prediction can be obtained using continuous modeling techniques.

  12. Fatigue life prediction method for contact wire using maximum local stress

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Yong Seok; Haochuang, Li; Seok, Chang Sung; Koo, Jae Mean [Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Ki Won; Kwon, Sam Young; Cho, Yong Hyeon [Korea Railroad Research Institute, Uiwang (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-01-15

    Railway contact wires supplying electricity to trains are exposed to repeated mechanical strain and stress caused by their own weight and discontinuous contact with a pantograph during train operation. Since the speed of railway transportation has increased continuously, railway industries have recently reported a number of contact wire failures caused by mechanical fatigue fractures instead of normal wear, which has been a more common failure mechanism. To secure the safety and durability of contact wires in environments with increased train speeds, a bending fatigue test on contact wire has been performed. The test equipment is too complicated to evaluate the fatigue characteristics of contact wire. Thus, the axial tension fatigue test was performed for a standard specimen, and the bending fatigue life for the contact wire structure was then predicted using the maximum local stress occurring at the top of the contact wire. Lastly, the tested bending fatigue life of the structure was compared with the fatigue life predicted by the axial tension fatigue test for verification.

  13. Fatigue life prediction method for contact wire using maximum local stress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Yong Seok; Haochuang, Li; Seok, Chang Sung; Koo, Jae Mean; Lee, Ki Won; Kwon, Sam Young; Cho, Yong Hyeon

    2015-01-01

    Railway contact wires supplying electricity to trains are exposed to repeated mechanical strain and stress caused by their own weight and discontinuous contact with a pantograph during train operation. Since the speed of railway transportation has increased continuously, railway industries have recently reported a number of contact wire failures caused by mechanical fatigue fractures instead of normal wear, which has been a more common failure mechanism. To secure the safety and durability of contact wires in environments with increased train speeds, a bending fatigue test on contact wire has been performed. The test equipment is too complicated to evaluate the fatigue characteristics of contact wire. Thus, the axial tension fatigue test was performed for a standard specimen, and the bending fatigue life for the contact wire structure was then predicted using the maximum local stress occurring at the top of the contact wire. Lastly, the tested bending fatigue life of the structure was compared with the fatigue life predicted by the axial tension fatigue test for verification.

  14. Integration of artificial intelligence methods and life cycle assessment to predict energy output and environmental impacts of paddy production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabavi-Pelesaraei, Ashkan; Rafiee, Shahin; Mohtasebi, Seyed Saeid; Hosseinzadeh-Bandbafha, Homa; Chau, Kwok-Wing

    2018-08-01

    Prediction of agricultural energy output and environmental impacts play important role in energy management and conservation of environment as it can help us to evaluate agricultural energy efficiency, conduct crops production system commissioning, and detect and diagnose faults of crop production system. Agricultural energy output and environmental impacts can be readily predicted by artificial intelligence (AI), owing to the ease of use and adaptability to seek optimal solutions in a rapid manner as well as the use of historical data to predict future agricultural energy use pattern under constraints. This paper conducts energy output and environmental impact prediction of paddy production in Guilan province, Iran based on two AI methods, artificial neural networks (ANNs), and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The amounts of energy input and output are 51,585.61MJkg -1 and 66,112.94MJkg -1 , respectively, in paddy production. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to evaluate environmental impacts of paddy production. Results show that, in paddy production, in-farm emission is a hotspot in global warming, acidification and eutrophication impact categories. ANN model with 12-6-8-1 structure is selected as the best one for predicting energy output. The correlation coefficient (R) varies from 0.524 to 0.999 in training for energy input and environmental impacts in ANN models. ANFIS model is developed based on a hybrid learning algorithm, with R for predicting output energy being 0.860 and, for environmental impacts, varying from 0.944 to 0.997. Results indicate that the multi-level ANFIS is a useful tool to managers for large-scale planning in forecasting energy output and environmental indices of agricultural production systems owing to its higher speed of computation processes compared to ANN model, despite ANN's higher accuracy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Psychological approach to successful ageing predicts future quality of life in older adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iliffe Steve

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Public policies aim to promote well-being, and ultimately the quality of later life. Positive perspectives of ageing are underpinned by a range of appraoches to successful ageing. This study aimed to investigate whether baseline biological, psychological and social aproaches to successful ageing predicted future QoL. Methods Postal follow-up in 2007/8 of a national random sample of 999 people aged 65 and over in 1999/2000. Of 496 valid addresses of survivors at follow-up, the follow-up response rate was 58% (287. Measures of the different concepts of successful ageing were constructed using baseline indicators. They were assessed for their ability to independently predict quality of life at follow-up. Results Few respondents achieved all good scores within each of the approaches to successful ageing. Each approach was associated with follow-up QoL when their scores were analysed continuously. The biomedical (health approach failed to achieve significance when the traditional dichotomous cut-off point for successfully aged (full health, or not (less than full health, was used. In multiple regression analyses of the relative predictive ability of each approach, only the psychological approach (perceived self-efficacy and optimism retained significance. Conclusion Only the psychological approach to successful ageing independently predicted QoL at follow-up. Successful ageing is not only about the maintenance of health, but about maximising one's psychological resources, namely self-efficacy and resilience. Increasing use of preventive care, better medical management of morbidity, and changing lifestyles in older people may have beneficial effects on health and longevity, but may not improve their QoL. Adding years to life and life to years may require two distinct and different approaches, one physical and the other psychological. Follow-up health status, number of supporters and social activities, and self-rated active ageing

  16. Comparisons of prediction models of quality of life after laparoscopic cholecystectomy: a longitudinal prospective study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hon-Yi Shi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Few studies of laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC outcome have used longitudinal data for more than two years. Moreover, no studies have considered group differences in factors other than outcome such as age and nonsurgical treatment. Additionally, almost all published articles agree that the essential issue of the internal validity (reproducibility of the artificial neural network (ANN, support vector machine (SVM, Gaussian process regression (GPR and multiple linear regression (MLR models has not been adequately addressed. This study proposed to validate the use of these models for predicting quality of life (QOL after LC and to compare the predictive capability of ANNs with that of SVM, GPR and MLR. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 400 LC patients completed the SF-36 and the Gastrointestinal Quality of Life Index at baseline and at 2 years postoperatively. The criteria for evaluating the accuracy of the system models were mean square error (MSE and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE. A global sensitivity analysis was also performed to assess the relative significance of input parameters in the system model and to rank the variables in order of importance. Compared to SVM, GPR and MLR models, the ANN model generally had smaller MSE and MAPE values in the training data set and test data set. Most ANN models had MAPE values ranging from 4.20% to 8.60%, and most had high prediction accuracy. The global sensitivity analysis also showed that preoperative functional status was the best parameter for predicting QOL after LC. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Compared with SVM, GPR and MLR models, the ANN model in this study was more accurate in predicting patient-reported QOL and had higher overall performance indices. Further studies of this model may consider the effect of a more detailed database that includes complications and clinical examination findings as well as more detailed outcome data.

  17. A comprehensive energy approach to predict fatigue life in CuAlBe shape memory alloy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sameallah, S; Kadkhodaei, M; Legrand, V; Saint-Sulpice, L; Arbab Chirani, S

    2015-01-01

    Stabilized dissipated energy is an effective parameter on the fatigue life of shape memory alloys (SMAs). In this study, a formula is proposed to directly evaluate the stabilized dissipated energy for different values of the maximum and minimum applied stresses, as well as the loading frequency, under cyclic tensile loadings. To this aim, a one-dimensional fully coupled thermomechanical constitutive model and a cycle-dependent phase diagram are employed to predict the uniaxial stress-strain response of an SMA in a specified cycle, including the stabilized one, with no need of obtaining the responses of the previous cycles. An enhanced phase diagram in which different slopes are defined for the start and finish of a backward transformation strip is also proposed to enable the capture of gradual transformations in a CuAlBe shape memory alloy. It is shown that the present approach is capable of reproducing the experimental responses of CuAlBe specimens under cyclic tensile loadings. An explicit formula is further presented to predict the fatigue life of CuAlBe as a function of the maximum and minimum applied stresses as well as the loading frequency. Fatigue tests are also carried out, and this formula is verified against the empirically predicted number of cycles for failure. (paper)

  18. A comprehensive energy approach to predict fatigue life in CuAlBe shape memory alloy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sameallah, S.; Legrand, V.; Saint-Sulpice, L.; Kadkhodaei, M.; Arbab Chirani, S.

    2015-02-01

    Stabilized dissipated energy is an effective parameter on the fatigue life of shape memory alloys (SMAs). In this study, a formula is proposed to directly evaluate the stabilized dissipated energy for different values of the maximum and minimum applied stresses, as well as the loading frequency, under cyclic tensile loadings. To this aim, a one-dimensional fully coupled thermomechanical constitutive model and a cycle-dependent phase diagram are employed to predict the uniaxial stress-strain response of an SMA in a specified cycle, including the stabilized one, with no need of obtaining the responses of the previous cycles. An enhanced phase diagram in which different slopes are defined for the start and finish of a backward transformation strip is also proposed to enable the capture of gradual transformations in a CuAlBe shape memory alloy. It is shown that the present approach is capable of reproducing the experimental responses of CuAlBe specimens under cyclic tensile loadings. An explicit formula is further presented to predict the fatigue life of CuAlBe as a function of the maximum and minimum applied stresses as well as the loading frequency. Fatigue tests are also carried out, and this formula is verified against the empirically predicted number of cycles for failure.

  19. Shelf-life dating of shelf-stable strawberry juice based on survival analysis of consumer acceptance information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buvé, Carolien; Van Bedts, Tine; Haenen, Annelien; Kebede, Biniam; Braekers, Roel; Hendrickx, Marc; Van Loey, Ann; Grauwet, Tara

    2018-07-01

    Accurate shelf-life dating of food products is crucial for consumers and industries. Therefore, in this study we applied a science-based approach for shelf-life assessment, including accelerated shelf-life testing (ASLT), acceptability testing and the screening of analytical attributes for fast shelf-life predictions. Shelf-stable strawberry juice was selected as a case study. Ambient storage (20 °C) had no effect on the aroma-based acceptance of strawberry juice. The colour-based acceptability decreased during storage under ambient and accelerated (28-42 °C) conditions. The application of survival analysis showed that the colour-based shelf-life was reached in the early stages of storage (≤11 weeks) and that the shelf-life was shortened at higher temperatures. None of the selected attributes (a * and ΔE * value, anthocyanin and ascorbic acid content) is an ideal analytical marker for shelf-life predictions in the investigated temperature range (20-42 °C). Nevertheless, an overall analytical cut-off value over the whole temperature range can be selected. Colour changes of strawberry juice during storage are shelf-life limiting. Combining ASLT with acceptability testing allowed to gain faster insight into the change in colour-based acceptability and to perform shelf-life predictions relying on scientific data. An analytical marker is a convenient tool for shelf-life predictions in the context of ASLT. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  20. Copula-based prediction of economic movements

    Science.gov (United States)

    García, J. E.; González-López, V. A.; Hirsh, I. D.

    2016-06-01

    In this paper we model the discretized returns of two paired time series BM&FBOVESPA Dividend Index and BM&FBOVESPA Public Utilities Index using multivariate Markov models. The discretization corresponds to three categories, high losses, high profits and the complementary periods of the series. In technical terms, the maximal memory that can be considered for a Markov model, can be derived from the size of the alphabet and dataset. The number of parameters needed to specify a discrete multivariate Markov chain grows exponentially with the order and dimension of the chain. In this case the size of the database is not large enough for a consistent estimation of the model. We apply a strategy to estimate a multivariate process with an order greater than the order achieved using standard procedures. The new strategy consist on obtaining a partition of the state space which is constructed from a combination, of the partitions corresponding to the two marginal processes and the partition corresponding to the multivariate Markov chain. In order to estimate the transition probabilities, all the partitions are linked using a copula. In our application this strategy provides a significant improvement in the movement predictions.

  1. Bankruptcy Prediction Based on the Autonomy Ratio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Brîndescu Olariu

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The theory and practice of the financial ratio analysis suggest the existence of a negative correlation between the autonomy ratio and the bankruptcy risk. Previous studies conducted on a sample of companies from Timis County (largest county in Romania confirm this hypothesis and recommend the autonomy ratio as a useful tool for measuring the bankruptcy risk two years in advance. The objective of the current research was to develop a methodology for measuring the bankruptcy risk that would be applicable for the companies from the Timis County (specific methodologies are considered necessary for each region. The target population consisted of all the companies from Timis County with annual sales of over 10,000 lei (aprox. 2,200 Euros. The research was performed over all the target population. The study has thus included 53,252 yearly financial statements from the period 2007 – 2010. The results of the study allow for the setting of benchmarks, as well as the configuration of a methodology of analysis. The proposed methodology cannot predict with perfect accuracy the state of the company, but it allows for a valuation of the risk level to which the company is subjected.

  2. Monitoring Shelf Life of Pasteurized Whole Milk Under Refrigerated Storage Conditions: Predictive Models for Quality Loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziyaina, Mohamed; Govindan, Byju N; Rasco, Barbara; Coffey, Todd; Sablani, Shyam S

    2018-02-01

    The shelf life of pasteurized milk is generally determined through microbiological analysis. The objective of this study was to correlate microbial quality parameters then to design predictive models for shelf life of pasteurized milk. We analyzed pasteurized milk (3.9% fat) for aerobic plate counts (APCs), psychrotrophic bacteria counts (PBCs), and Bacillus spp. counts at 5, 7, 10, 13, 15, and 19 (±1 °C) to the end of storage time. We also monitored titratable acidity, pH, and, lipase, and protease activity and correlated this with APC, which is the principal index defining shelf life. Results indicate that the shelf life of pasteurized milk was 24, 36, and 72 h at 19, 15, and 13 °C respectively, as determined by APC and acidity indicators. However, milk stored at lower temperatures of 5, 7, and 10 °C had longer shelf life of 30, 24, and 12 d, respectively. A sharp increase in titratable acidity, while decrease pH were observed when APCs reached 5.0 log 10 CFU/mL at all storage temperatures. Lipase and protease activities increased with storage temperature. At 5 and 7 °C, however, protease activity was very low. Therefore, we eliminated this parameter from our quality parameters as a potential spoilage indicator. Findings of this research are useful for monitoring the quality of commercial pasteurized milk, particularly in locations where environmental conditions make longer storage difficult. The study also provides valuable information for development of colorimetric shelf life indicators. © 2018 Institute of Food Technologists®.

  3. Prediction of pipeline corrosion rate based on grey Markov models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yonghong; Zhang Dafa; Peng Guichu; Wang Yuemin

    2009-01-01

    Based on the model that combined by grey model and Markov model, the prediction of corrosion rate of nuclear power pipeline was studied. Works were done to improve the grey model, and the optimization unbiased grey model was obtained. This new model was used to predict the tendency of corrosion rate, and the Markov model was used to predict the residual errors. In order to improve the prediction precision, rolling operation method was used in these prediction processes. The results indicate that the improvement to the grey model is effective and the prediction precision of the new model combined by the optimization unbiased grey model and Markov model is better, and the use of rolling operation method may improve the prediction precision further. (authors)

  4. Ambulatory fall-risk assessment: amount and quality of daily-life gait predict falls in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Schooten, Kimberley S; Pijnappels, Mirjam; Rispens, Sietse M; Elders, Petra J M; Lips, Paul; van Dieën, Jaap H

    2015-05-01

    Ambulatory measurements of trunk accelerations can provide valuable information on the amount and quality of daily-life activities and contribute to the identification of individuals at risk of falls. We compared associations between retrospective and prospective falls with potential risk factors as measured by daily-life accelerometry. In addition, we investigated predictive value of these parameters for 6-month prospective falls. One week of trunk accelerometry (DynaPort MoveMonitor) was obtained in 169 older adults (mean age 75). The amount of daily activity and quality of gait were determined and validated questionnaires on fall-risk factors, grip strength, and trail making test were obtained. Six-month fall incidence was obtained retrospectively by recall and prospectively by fall diaries and monthly telephone contact. Among all participants, 35.5% had a history of ≥1 falls and 34.9% experienced ≥1 falls during 6-month follow-up. Logistic regressions showed that questionnaires, grip strength, and trail making test, as well as the amount and quality of gait, were significantly associated with falls. Significant associations differed between retrospective and prospective analyses although odds ratios indicated similar patterns. Predictive ability based on questionnaires, grip strength, and trail making test (area under the curve .68) improved substantially by accelerometry-derived parameters of the amount of gait (number of strides), gait quality (complexity, intensity, and smoothness), and their interactions (area under the curve .82). Daily-life accelerometry contributes substantially to the identification of individuals at risk of falls, and can predict falls in 6 months with good accuracy. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. Alcohol-related problems and life satisfaction predict motivation to change among mandated college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diulio, Andrea R; Cero, Ian; Witte, Tracy K; Correia, Christopher J

    2014-04-01

    The present study investigated the role specific types of alcohol-related problems and life satisfaction play in predicting motivation to change alcohol use. Participants were 548 college students mandated to complete a brief intervention following an alcohol-related policy violation. Using hierarchical multiple regression, we tested for the presence of interaction and quadratic effects on baseline data collected prior to the intervention. A significant interaction indicated that the relationship between a respondent's personal consequences and his/her motivation to change differs depending upon the level of concurrent social consequences. Additionally quadratic effects for abuse/dependence symptoms and life satisfaction were found. The quadratic probes suggest that abuse/dependence symptoms and poor life satisfaction are both positively associated with motivation to change for a majority of the sample; however, the nature of these relationships changes for participants with more extreme scores. Results support the utility of using a multidimensional measure of alcohol related problems and assessing non-linear relationships when assessing predictors of motivation to change. The results also suggest that the best strategies for increasing motivation may vary depending on the types of alcohol-related problems and level of life satisfaction the student is experiencing and highlight potential directions for future research. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  6. Churn prediction based on text mining and CRM data analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Schatzmann, Anders; Heitz, Christoph; Münch, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Within quantitative marketing, churn prediction on a single customer level has become a major issue. An extensive body of literature shows that, today, churn prediction is mainly based on structured CRM data. However, in the past years, more and more digitized customer text data has become available, originating from emails, surveys or scripts of phone calls. To date, this data source remains vastly untapped for churn prediction, and corresponding methods are rarely described in literature. ...

  7. Statistical model based gender prediction for targeted NGS clinical panels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Palani Kannan Kandavel

    2017-12-01

    The reference test dataset are being used to test the model. The sensitivity on predicting the gender has been increased from the current “genotype composition in ChrX” based approach. In addition, the prediction score given by the model can be used to evaluate the quality of clinical dataset. The higher prediction score towards its respective gender indicates the higher quality of sequenced data.

  8. Neuroticism and Extraversion in Youth Predict Mental Wellbeing and Life Satisfaction 40 Years Later

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, Catharine R; Booth, Tom; Mõttus, René; Kuh, Diana; Deary, Ian J

    2014-01-01

    Neuroticism and Extraversion are linked with current wellbeing, but it is unclear whether these traits in youth predict wellbeing decades later. We applied structural equation modelling to data from 4583 people from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development. We examined the effects of Neuroticism and Extraversion at ages 16 and 26 years on mental wellbeing and life satisfaction at age 60-64 and explored the mediating roles of psychological and physical health. Extraversion had direct, positive effects on both measures of wellbeing. The impact of Neuroticism on both wellbeing and life satisfaction was largely indirect through susceptibility to psychological distress and physical health problems. Personality dispositions in youth have enduring influence on wellbeing assessed about forty years later. PMID:24563560

  9. Power Load Prediction Based on Fractal Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Jian-Kai, Liang; Cattani, Carlo; Wan-Qing, Song

    2015-01-01

    The basic theories of load forecasting on the power system are summarized. Fractal theory, which is a new algorithm applied to load forecasting, is introduced. Based on the fractal dimension and fractal interpolation function theories, the correlation algorithms are applied to the model of short-term load forecasting. According to the process of load forecasting, the steps of every process are designed, including load data preprocessing, similar day selecting, short-term load forecasting, and...

  10. Prediction of residential radon exposure of the whole Swiss population: comparison of model-based predictions with measurement-based predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauri, D D; Huss, A; Zimmermann, F; Kuehni, C E; Röösli, M

    2013-10-01

    Radon plays an important role for human exposure to natural sources of ionizing radiation. The aim of this article is to compare two approaches to estimate mean radon exposure in the Swiss population: model-based predictions at individual level and measurement-based predictions based on measurements aggregated at municipality level. A nationwide model was used to predict radon levels in each household and for each individual based on the corresponding tectonic unit, building age, building type, soil texture, degree of urbanization, and floor. Measurement-based predictions were carried out within a health impact assessment on residential radon and lung cancer. Mean measured radon levels were corrected for the average floor distribution and weighted with population size of each municipality. Model-based predictions yielded a mean radon exposure of the Swiss population of 84.1 Bq/m(3) . Measurement-based predictions yielded an average exposure of 78 Bq/m(3) . This study demonstrates that the model- and the measurement-based predictions provided similar results. The advantage of the measurement-based approach is its simplicity, which is sufficient for assessing exposure distribution in a population. The model-based approach allows predicting radon levels at specific sites, which is needed in an epidemiological study, and the results do not depend on how the measurement sites have been selected. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Ensemble-based prediction of RNA secondary structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aghaeepour, Nima; Hoos, Holger H

    2013-04-24

    Accurate structure prediction methods play an important role for the understanding of RNA function. Energy-based, pseudoknot-free secondary structure prediction is one of the most widely used and versatile approaches, and improved methods for this task have received much attention over the past five years. Despite the impressive progress that as been achieved in this area, existing evaluations of the prediction accuracy achieved by various algorithms do not provide a comprehensive, statistically sound assessment. Furthermore, while there is increasing evidence that no prediction algorithm consistently outperforms all others, no work has been done to exploit the complementary strengths of multiple approaches. In this work, we present two contributions to the area of RNA secondary structure prediction. Firstly, we use state-of-the-art, resampling-based statistical methods together with a previously published and increasingly widely used dataset of high-quality RNA structures to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of existing RNA secondary structure prediction procedures. The results from this evaluation clarify the performance relationship between ten well-known existing energy-based pseudoknot-free RNA secondary structure prediction methods and clearly demonstrate the progress that has been achieved in recent years. Secondly, we introduce AveRNA, a generic and powerful method for combining a set of existing secondary structure prediction procedures into an ensemble-based method that achieves significantly higher prediction accuracies than obtained from any of its component procedures. Our new, ensemble-based method, AveRNA, improves the state of the art for energy-based, pseudoknot-free RNA secondary structure prediction by exploiting the complementary strengths of multiple existing prediction procedures, as demonstrated using a state-of-the-art statistical resampling approach. In addition, AveRNA allows an intuitive and effective control of the trade-off between

  12. Machine remaining useful life prediction: An integrated adaptive neuro-fuzzy and high-order particle filtering approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chaochao; Vachtsevanos, George; Orchard, Marcos E.

    2012-04-01

    Machine prognosis can be considered as the generation of long-term predictions that describe the evolution in time of a fault indicator, with the purpose of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a failing component/subsystem so that timely maintenance can be performed to avoid catastrophic failures. This paper proposes an integrated RUL prediction method using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) and high-order particle filtering, which forecasts the time evolution of the fault indicator and estimates the probability density function (pdf) of RUL. The ANFIS is trained and integrated in a high-order particle filter as a model describing the fault progression. The high-order particle filter is used to estimate the current state and carry out p-step-ahead predictions via a set of particles. These predictions are used to estimate the RUL pdf. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated via the real-world data from a seeded fault test for a UH-60 helicopter planetary gear plate. The results demonstrate that it outperforms both the conventional ANFIS predictor and the particle-filter-based predictor where the fault growth model is a first-order model that is trained via the ANFIS.

  13. Service Life Prediction of Wood Claddings by in-situ Measurement of Wood Moisture Content

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engelund, Emil Tang; Lindegaard, Berit; Morsing, Niels

    2009-01-01

    of wood moisture are done by in-situ resistance moisture meters (Lindegaard and Morsing 2006). The aim is that the test should form the basis of evaluation of the maintenance requirements and the prediction of service life of the surface treatment and the wood/construction. At the moment 60 test racks...... are exposed. This study examines the data from the first five years of outdoor exposure using data from a test rack with a water-borne acrylic coating and a test rack with ICP coating for case studies. The moisture content data was converted into weekly average and weekly variation values which gave a deeper...

  14. Assessment of Predictable Productivity of Nurses Working in Kerman University of Medical Sciences' Teaching Hospitals via the Dimensions of Quality of Work Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borhani, Fariba; Arbabisarjou, Azizollah; Kianian, Toktam; Saber, Saman

    2016-10-01

    Despite the existence of a large community of nurses, specific mechanisms have not been developed yet to consider their needs and the quality of their work life. Moreover, few studies have been conducted to analyze the nature of nursing, nursing places or nurses' quality of work life. In this regard, the present study aimed to assess predictable productivity of nurses working in Kerman University of Medical Sciences' teaching hospitals via the dimensions of Quality of Work Life. The present descriptive-correlational study was conducted to assess predictable productivity of nurses via the dimensions of Quality of Work Life. The study's population consisted of all nurses working in different wards of teaching hospitals associated with Kerman University of Medical Sciences. Out of the whole population, 266 nurses were selected based on the simple random sampling method. To collect data, the questionnaires of 'Quality of Nursing Work Life' and 'Productivity' were used after confirming their reliability (test-retest) and content validity. Finally, the collected data were analyzed through the SPSS software (version 16). Although the quality of work life for nurses was average and their productivity was low but the results showed that quality of life is directly related to nurses' productivity. Quality of life and its dimensions are predictive factors in the in the nurses' productivity. It can conclude that by recognizing the nurses' quality of work life situation, it can realize this group productivity and their values to the efficiency of the health system. For the quality of working life improvement and increasing nurses' productivity more efforts are needed by authorities. The findings can be applied by managers of hospitals and nursing services along with head nurses to enhance the quality of health services and nursing profession in general.

  15. New paradigm for prediction of radiation life-time of reactor pressure vessel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotrechko, S.A.; Meshkov, Yu.Ya.; Neklyudov, I.M.; Revka, V.N.

    2011-01-01

    New paradigm for prediction of radiation life-time of reactor pressure vessel is presented. Equation for limiting state of reactor pressure vessel wall with crack-like defect is obtained. It is exhibited that the value of critical fluence Φ c may be determined not by shift of critical temperature of fracture of surveillance specimen, which is indirect characteristic, but by direct method, namely, by the condition of initiation of brittle fracture of irradiated metal ahead of a crack in RPV wall. Within the framework of engineering version of LA to fracture the technique for Φ c ascertainment is developed. Prediction of Φ c for WWER pressure vessels demonstrates potentialities of this technique.

  16. Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pearson, R. G.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Bastos Araujo, Miguel

    2006-01-01

    Aim Many attempts to predict the potential range of species rely on environmental niche (or 'bioclimate envelope') modelling, yet the effects of using different niche-based methodologies require further investigation. Here we investigate the impact that the choice of model can have on predictions...

  17. Prediction based chaos control via a new neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shen Liqun; Wang Mao; Liu Wanyu; Sun Guanghui

    2008-01-01

    In this Letter, a new chaos control scheme based on chaos prediction is proposed. To perform chaos prediction, a new neural network architecture for complex nonlinear approximation is proposed. And the difficulty in building and training the neural network is also reduced. Simulation results of Logistic map and Lorenz system show the effectiveness of the proposed chaos control scheme and the proposed neural network

  18. Moment based model predictive control for systems with additive uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saltik, M.B.; Ozkan, L.; Weiland, S.; Ludlage, J.H.A.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we present a model predictive control (MPC) strategy based on the moments of the state variables and the cost functional. The statistical properties of the state predictions are calculated through the open loop iteration of dynamics and used in the formulation of MPC cost function. We

  19. Decline Curve Based Models for Predicting Natural Gas Well Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Kamari, Arash; Mohammadi, Amir H.; Lee, Moonyong; Mahmood, Tariq; Bahadori, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    The productivity of a gas well declines over its production life as cannot cover economic policies. To overcome such problems, the production performance of gas wells should be predicted by applying reliable methods to analyse the decline trend. Therefore, reliable models are developed in this study on the basis of powerful artificial intelligence techniques viz. the artificial neural network (ANN) modelling strategy, least square support vector machine (LSSVM) approach, adaptive neuro-fuzzy ...

  20. Genomic biomarkers of prenatal intrauterine inflammation in umbilical cord tissue predict later life neurological outcomes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sloane K Tilley

    Full Text Available Preterm birth is a major risk factor for neurodevelopmental delays and disorders. This study aimed to identify genomic biomarkers of intrauterine inflammation in umbilical cord tissue in preterm neonates that predict cognitive impairment at 10 years of age.Genome-wide messenger RNA (mRNA levels from umbilical cord tissue were obtained from 43 neonates born before 28 weeks of gestation. Genes that were differentially expressed across four indicators of intrauterine inflammation were identified and their functions examined. Exact logistic regression was used to test whether expression levels in umbilical cord tissue predicted neurocognitive function at 10 years of age.Placental indicators of inflammation were associated with changes in the mRNA expression of 445 genes in umbilical cord tissue. Transcripts with decreased expression showed significant enrichment for biological signaling processes related to neuronal development and growth. The altered expression of six genes was found to predict neurocognitive impairment when children were 10 years old These genes include two that encode for proteins involved in neuronal development.Prenatal intrauterine inflammation is associated with altered gene expression in umbilical cord tissue. A set of six of the differentially expressed genes predict cognitive impairment later in life, suggesting that the fetal environment is associated with significant adverse effects on neurodevelopment that persist into later childhood.

  1. Slope Deformation Prediction Based on Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei JIA

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper principally studies the prediction of slope deformation based on Support Vector Machine (SVM. In the prediction process,explore how to reconstruct the phase space. The geological body’s displacement data obtained from chaotic time series are used as SVM’s training samples. Slope displacement caused by multivariable coupling is predicted by means of single variable. Results show that this model is of high fitting accuracy and generalization, and provides reference for deformation prediction in slope engineering.

  2. Protein-Based Urine Test Predicts Kidney Transplant Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... News Releases News Release Thursday, August 22, 2013 Protein-based urine test predicts kidney transplant outcomes NIH- ... supporting development of noninvasive tests. Levels of a protein in the urine of kidney transplant recipients can ...

  3. Predicting response to incretin-based therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agrawal N

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Sanjay Kalra1, Bharti Kalra2, Rakesh Sahay3, Navneet Agrawal41Department of Endocrinology, 2Department of Diabetology, Bharti Hospital, Karnal, India; 3Department of Endocrinology, Osmania Medical College, Hyderabad, India; 4Department of Medicine, GR Medical College, Gwalior, IndiaAbstract: There are two important incretin hormones, glucose-dependent insulin tropic polypeptide (GIP and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1. The biological activities of GLP-1 include stimulation of glucose-dependent insulin secretion and insulin biosynthesis, inhibition of glucagon secretion and gastric emptying, and inhibition of food intake. GLP-1 appears to have a number of additional effects in the gastrointestinal tract and central nervous system. Incretin based therapy includes GLP-1 receptor agonists like human GLP-1 analogs (liraglutide and exendin-4 based molecules (exenatide, as well as DPP-4 inhibitors like sitagliptin, vildagliptin and saxagliptin. Most of the published studies showed a significant reduction in HbA1c using these drugs. A critical analysis of reported data shows that the response rate in terms of target achievers of these drugs is average. One of the first actions identified for GLP-1 was the glucose-dependent stimulation of insulin secretion from islet cell lines. Following the detection of GLP-1 receptors on islet beta cells, a large body of evidence has accumulated illustrating that GLP-1 exerts multiple actions on various signaling pathways and gene products in the ß cell. GLP-1 controls glucose homeostasis through well-defined actions on the islet ß cell via stimulation of insulin secretion and preservation and expansion of ß cell mass. In summary, there are several factors determining the response rate to incretin therapy. Currently minimal clinical data is available to make a conclusion. Key factors appear to be duration of diabetes, obesity, presence of autonomic neuropathy, resting energy expenditure, plasma glucagon levels and

  4. Overview of statistical methods, models and analysis for predicting equipment end of life

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-07-01

    Utility equipment can be operated and maintained for many years following installation. However, as the equipment ages, utility operators must decide whether to extend the service life or replace the equipment. Condition assessment modelling is used by many utilities to determine the condition of equipment and to prioritize the maintenance or repair. Several factors are weighted and combined in assessment modelling, which gives a single index number to rate the equipment. There is speculation that this index alone may not be adequate for a business case to rework or replace an asset because it only ranks an asset into a particular category. For that reason, a new methodology was developed to determine the economic end of life of an asset. This paper described the different statistical methods available and their use in determining the remaining service life of electrical equipment. A newly developed Excel-based demonstration computer tool is also an integral part of the deliverables of this project.

  5. Group-Based Life Design Counseling in an Italian Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Fabio, Annamaria; Maree, Jacobus Gideon

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the effectiveness of group-based Life Design Counseling using the Career-Story Interview. Written exercises were used to implement the seven topics in the Career-Story Interview. The present study employed an experimental design that involved two groups of Italian entrepreneurs from the agricultural and trade sectors, namely an…

  6. Microarray-based cancer prediction using soft computing approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaosheng; Gotoh, Osamu

    2009-05-26

    One of the difficulties in using gene expression profiles to predict cancer is how to effectively select a few informative genes to construct accurate prediction models from thousands or ten thousands of genes. We screen highly discriminative genes and gene pairs to create simple prediction models involved in single genes or gene pairs on the basis of soft computing approach and rough set theory. Accurate cancerous prediction is obtained when we apply the simple prediction models for four cancerous gene expression datasets: CNS tumor, colon tumor, lung cancer and DLBCL. Some genes closely correlated with the pathogenesis of specific or general cancers are identified. In contrast with other models, our models are simple, effective and robust. Meanwhile, our models are interpretable for they are based on decision rules. Our results demonstrate that very simple models may perform well on cancerous molecular prediction and important gene markers of cancer can be detected if the gene selection approach is chosen reasonably.

  7. A method for predicting the fatigue life of pre-corroded 2024-T3 aluminum from breaking load tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruenberg, Karl Martin

    Characterization of material properties is necessary for design purposes and has been a topic of research for many years. Over the last several decades, much progress has been made in identifying metrics to describe fracture mechanics properties and developing procedures to measure the appropriate values. However, in the context of design, there has not been as much success in quantifying the susceptibility of a material to corrosion damage and its subsequent impact on material behavior in the framework of fracture mechanics. A natural next step in understanding the effects of corrosion damage was to develop a link between standard material test procedures and fatigue life in the presence of corrosion. Simply stated, the goal of this investigation was to formulate a cheaper and quicker method for assessing the consequences of corrosion on remaining fatigue life. For this study, breaking load specimens and fatigue specimens of a single nominal gage (0.063″) of aluminum alloy 2024-T3 were exposed to three levels of corrosion. The breaking load specimens were taken from three different material lots, and the fatigue tests were carried out at three stress levels. All failed specimens, both breaking load and fatigue specimens, were examined to characterize the damage state(s) and failure mechanism(s). Correlations between breaking load results and fatigue life results in the presence of corrosion damage were developed using a fracture mechanics foundation and the observed mechanisms of failure. Where breaking load tests showed a decrease in strength due to increased corrosion exposure, the corresponding set of fatigue tests showed a decrease in life. And where breaking load tests from different specimen orientations exhibited similar levels of strength, the corresponding set of fatigue specimens showed similar lives. The spread from shortest to longest fatigue lives among the different corrosion conditions decreased at the higher stress levels. Life predictions based

  8. Deep-Learning-Based Approach for Prediction of Algal Blooms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Zhang

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Algal blooms have recently become a critical global environmental concern which might put economic development and sustainability at risk. However, the accurate prediction of algal blooms remains a challenging scientific problem. In this study, a novel prediction approach for algal blooms based on deep learning is presented—a powerful tool to represent and predict highly dynamic and complex phenomena. The proposed approach constructs a five-layered model to extract detailed relationships between the density of phytoplankton cells and various environmental parameters. The algal blooms can be predicted by the phytoplankton density obtained from the output layer. A case study is conducted in coastal waters of East China using both our model and a traditional back-propagation neural network for comparison. The results show that the deep-learning-based model yields better generalization and greater accuracy in predicting algal blooms than a traditional shallow neural network does.

  9. Predicting Negative Life Outcomes from Early Aggressive-Disruptive Behavior Trajectories: Gender Differences in Maladaptation across Life Domains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradshaw, Catherine P.; Schaeffer, Cindy M.; Petras, Hanno; Ialongo, Nicholas

    2010-01-01

    Transactional theories of development suggest that displaying high levels of antisocial behavior early in life and persistently over time causes disruption in multiple life domains, which in turn places individuals at risk for negative life outcomes. We used longitudinal data from 1,137 primarily African American urban youth (49.1% female) to…

  10. A human life-stage physiologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic model for chlorpyrifos: development and validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jordan Ned; Hinderliter, Paul M; Timchalk, Charles; Bartels, Michael J; Poet, Torka S

    2014-08-01

    Sensitivity to some chemicals in animals and humans are known to vary with age. Age-related changes in sensitivity to chlorpyrifos have been reported in animal models. A life-stage physiologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) model was developed to predict disposition of chlorpyrifos and its metabolites, chlorpyrifos-oxon (the ultimate toxicant) and 3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinol (TCPy), as well as B-esterase inhibition by chlorpyrifos-oxon in humans. In this model, previously measured age-dependent metabolism of chlorpyrifos and chlorpyrifos-oxon were integrated into age-related descriptions of human anatomy and physiology. The life-stage PBPK/PD model was calibrated and tested against controlled adult human exposure studies. Simulations suggest age-dependent pharmacokinetics and response may exist. At oral doses ⩾0.6mg/kg of chlorpyrifos (100- to 1000-fold higher than environmental exposure levels), 6months old children are predicted to have higher levels of chlorpyrifos-oxon in blood and higher levels of red blood cell cholinesterase inhibition compared to adults from equivalent doses. At lower doses more relevant to environmental exposures, simulations predict that adults will have slightly higher levels of chlorpyrifos-oxon in blood and greater cholinesterase inhibition. This model provides a computational framework for age-comparative simulations that can be utilized to predict chlorpyrifos disposition and biological response over various postnatal life stages. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Predictive Models for Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus Spread Dynamics, Considering Frankliniella occidentalis Specific Life Processes as Influenced by the Virus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pamella Akoth Ogada

    Full Text Available Several models have been studied on predictive epidemics of arthropod vectored plant viruses in an attempt to bring understanding to the complex but specific relationship between the three cornered pathosystem (virus, vector and host plant, as well as their interactions with the environment. A large body of studies mainly focuses on weather based models as management tool for monitoring pests and diseases, with very few incorporating the contribution of vector's life processes in the disease dynamics, which is an essential aspect when mitigating virus incidences in a crop stand. In this study, we hypothesized that the multiplication and spread of tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV in a crop stand is strongly related to its influences on Frankliniella occidentalis preferential behavior and life expectancy. Model dynamics of important aspects in disease development within TSWV-F. occidentalis-host plant interactions were developed, focusing on F. occidentalis' life processes as influenced by TSWV. The results show that the influence of TSWV on F. occidentalis preferential behaviour leads to an estimated increase in relative acquisition rate of the virus, and up to 33% increase in transmission rate to healthy plants. Also, increased life expectancy; which relates to improved fitness, is dependent on the virus induced preferential behaviour, consequently promoting multiplication and spread of the virus in a crop stand. The development of vector-based models could further help in elucidating the role of tri-trophic interactions in agricultural disease systems. Use of the model to examine the components of the disease process could also boost our understanding on how specific epidemiological characteristics interact to cause diseases in crops. With this level of understanding we can efficiently develop more precise control strategies for the virus and the vector.

  12. Study on predicting residual life of elevator links by fracture mechanics approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li Helin; Zhang Yi; Deng Zengjie [China National Petroleum Corp., Xi`an, Shaanxi (China). Tubular Goods Research Center; Jin Dazeng [Xi`an Jiaotong Univ., Xi`an, Shaanxi (China)

    1995-12-31

    On the basis of investigation, failure and fracture analysis of elevator links, residual life prediction of links using fracture mechanics approach is studied, and mechanical properties, fracture toughness value K{sub IC} and fatigue crack propagation rage da/dN of the steel for elevator links are determined. Using the relation between stress intensity factor K{sub I} and the strain-energy release rate, the two-dimensional conversion thickness finite element method has been used to calculate the stress intensity factors K{sub I} for dangerous sections in the ring part of links. Furthermore, the reliability of calculations of the finite element stress intensity factors K{sub I} for dangerous sections of elevator links and the residual life computation for links are verified by fatigue tests of actual links. Finally, the experimental verification of computed results by 150T link fractured at site indicates that the computed critical crack lengths and residual life tally well with those measured and meet the needs of oil drilling.

  13. In your eyes: does theory of mind predict impaired life functioning in bipolar disorder?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purcell, Amanda L; Phillips, Mary; Gruber, June

    2013-12-01

    Deficits in emotion perception and social functioning are strongly implicated in bipolar disorder (BD). Examining theory of mind (ToM) may provide one potential mechanism to explain observed socio-emotional impairments in this disorder. The present study prospectively investigated the relationship between theory of mind performance and life functioning in individuals diagnosed with BD compared to unipolar depression and healthy control groups. Theory of mind (ToM) performance was examined in 26 individuals with remitted bipolar I disorder (BD), 29 individuals with remitted unipolar depression (UD), and 28 healthy controls (CTL) using a well-validated advanced theory of mind task. Accuracy and response latency scores were calculated from the task. Life functioning was measured during a 12 month follow-up session. No group differences for ToM accuracy emerged. However, the BD group exhibited significantly shorter response times than the UD and CTL groups. Importantly, quicker response times in the BD group predicted greater life functioning impairment at a 12-month follow-up, even after controlling for baseline symptoms. The stimuli were static representations of emotional states and do not allow for evaluating the appropriateness of context during emotional communication; due to sample size, neither specific comorbidities nor medication effects were analyzed for the BD and UD groups; preliminary status of theory of mind as a construct. Results suggest that quickened socio-emotional decision making may represent a risk factor for future functional impairment in BD. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Towards evaluation and prediction of building sustainability using life cycle behaviour simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marzouk Mohamed

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays researchers and practitioners are oriented towards questioning how effective are the different building life cycle activities contribution to preserving the environment and fulfilling the need for equilibrium. Terminologies such as Building sustainability and Green Buildings have long been adopted yet the evaluation of such has been driven through the use of rating systems. LEED of the United States, BREEAM of the United Kingdom, and Pearl of the United Arab Emirates are namely good examples of these rating systems. This paper introduces a new approach for evaluation of building life cycle sustainability through simulation of activities interaction and studying its behaviour. The effort focuses on comprehending impact and effect of suitability related activities over the whole building life cycle or period of time. The methodology includes gathering a pool of parameters through benchmarking of five selected rating systems, analytical factorization for the gathered parameters is used to elect the most influencing parameters. Followed by simulation modelling using System dynamics to capture the interaction of the considered parameters. The resulting behaviour obtained from simulation is studied and used in designing a tool for prediction of sustainability.

  15. Thermal aging of some decommissioned reactor components and methodology for life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, H.M.

    1989-03-01

    Since a realistic aging of cast stainless steel components for end-of-life or life-extension conditions cannot be produced, it is customary to simulate the thermal aging embrittlement by accelerated aging at ∼400 degree C. In this investigation, field components obtained from decommissioned reactors have been examined after service up to 22 yr to provide a benchmark of the laboratory simulation. The primary and secondary aging processes were found to be identical to those of the laboratory-aged specimens, and the kinetic characteristics were also similar. The extent of the aging embrittlement processes and other key factors that are known to influence the embrittlement kinetics have been compared for the decommissioned reactor components and materials aged under accelerated conditions. On the basis of the study, a mechanistic understanding of the causes of the complex behavior in kinetics and activation energy of aging (i.e., the temperature dependence of aging embrittlement between the accelerated and reactor-operating conditions) is presented. A mechanistic correlation developed thereon is compared with a number of available empirical correlations to provide an insight for development of a better methodology of life prediction of the reactor components. 18 refs., 18 figs., 5 tabs

  16. Stressful life events predict delayed functional recovery following treatment for mania in bipolar disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan-Meier, Leslie; Eberhart, Nicole K; Hammen, Constance L; Gitlin, Michael; Sokolski, Kenneth; Altshuler, Lori

    2011-04-30

    Identifying predictors of functional recovery in bipolar disorder is critical to treatment efforts to help patients re-establish premorbid levels of role adjustment following an acute manic episode. The current study examined the role of stressful life events as potential obstacles to recovery of functioning in various roles. 65 patients with bipolar I disorder participated in a longitudinal study of functional recovery following clinical recovery from a manic episode. Stressful life events were assessed as predictors of concurrent vs. delayed recovery of role functioning in 4 domains (friends, family, home duties, work/school). Despite clinical recovery, a subset of patients experienced delayed functional recovery in various role domains. Moreover, delayed functional recovery was significantly associated with presence of one or more stressors in the prior 3 months, even after controlling for mood symptoms. Presence of a stressor predicted longer time to functional recovery in life domains, up to 112 days in work/school. Interventions that provide monitoring, support, and problem-solving may be needed to help prevent or mitigate the effects of stress on functional recovery. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Improving Computational Efficiency of Prediction in Model-Based Prognostics Using the Unscented Transform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daigle, Matthew John; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2010-01-01

    Model-based prognostics captures system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components, and how they fail, in order to obtain accurate predictions of end of life (EOL). EOL is predicted based on the estimated current state distribution of a component and expected profiles of future usage. In general, this requires simulations of the component using the underlying models. In this paper, we develop a simulation-based prediction methodology that achieves computational efficiency by performing only the minimal number of simulations needed in order to accurately approximate the mean and variance of the complete EOL distribution. This is performed through the use of the unscented transform, which predicts the means and covariances of a distribution passed through a nonlinear transformation. In this case, the EOL simulation acts as that nonlinear transformation. In this paper, we review the unscented transform, and describe how this concept is applied to efficient EOL prediction. As a case study, we develop a physics-based model of a solenoid valve, and perform simulation experiments to demonstrate improved computational efficiency without sacrificing prediction accuracy.

  18. Robust design and thermal fatigue life prediction of anisotropic conductive film flip chip package

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nam, Hyun Wook

    2004-01-01

    The use of flip-chip technology has many advantages over other approaches for high-density electronic packaging. ACF(Anisotropic Conductive Film) is one of the major flip-chip technologies, which has short chip-to-chip interconnection length, high productivity, and miniaturization of package. In this study, thermal fatigue life of ACF bonding flip-chip package has been predicted. Elastic and thermal properties of ACF were measured by using DMA and TMA. Temperature dependent nonlinear bi-thermal analysis was conducted and the result was compared with Moire interferometer experiment. Calculated displacement field was well matched with experimental result. Thermal fatigue analysis was also conducted. The maximum shear strain occurs at the outmost located bump. Shear stress-strain curve was obtained to calculate fatigue life. Fatigue model for electronic adhesives was used to predict thermal fatigue life of ACF bonding flip-chip packaging. DOE (Design Of Experiment) technique was used to find important design factors. The results show that PCB CTE (Coefficient of Thermal Expansion) and elastic modulus of ACF material are important material parameters. And as important design parameters, chip width, bump pitch and bump width were chose. 2 nd DOE was conducted to obtain RSM equation for the choose 3 design parameter. The coefficient of determination (R 2 ) for the calculated RSM equation is 0.99934. Optimum design is conducted using the RSM equation. MMFD (Modified Method for Feasible Direction) algorithm is used to optimum design. The optimum value for chip width, bump pitch and bump width were 7.87mm, 430μm, and 78μm, respectively. Approximately, 1400 cycles have been expected under optimum conditions. Reliability analysis was conducted to find out guideline for control range of design parameter. Sigma value was calculated with changing standard deviation of design variable. To acquire 6 sigma level thermal fatigue reliability, the Std. Deviation of design parameter

  19. REMAINING LIFE TIME PREDICTION OF BEARINGS USING K-STAR ALGORITHM – A STATISTICAL APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. SATISHKUMAR

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The role of bearings is significant in reducing the down time of all rotating machineries. The increasing trend of bearing failures in recent times has triggered the need and importance of deployment of condition monitoring. There are multiple factors associated to a bearing failure while it is in operation. Hence, a predictive strategy is required to evaluate the current state of the bearings in operation. In past, predictive models with regression techniques were widely used for bearing lifetime estimations. The Objective of this paper is to estimate the remaining useful life of bearings through a machine learning approach. The ultimate objective of this study is to strengthen the predictive maintenance. The present study was done using classification approach following the concepts of machine learning and a predictive model was built to calculate the residual lifetime of bearings in operation. Vibration signals were acquired on a continuous basis from an experiment wherein the bearings are made to run till it fails naturally. It should be noted that the experiment was carried out with new bearings at pre-defined load and speed conditions until the bearing fails on its own. In the present work, statistical features were deployed and feature selection process was carried out using J48 decision tree and selected features were used to develop the prognostic model. The K-Star classification algorithm, a supervised machine learning technique is made use of in building a predictive model to estimate the lifetime of bearings. The performance of classifier was cross validated with distinct data. The result shows that the K-Star classification model gives 98.56% classification accuracy with selected features.

  20. Prospective evaluation of biomarkers for prediction of quality of life in community-acquired pneumonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nickler, Manuela; Schaffner, Daniela; Christ-Crain, Mirjam; Ottiger, Manuel; Thomann, Robert; Hoess, Claus; Henzen, Christoph; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp

    2016-11-01

    Most clinical research investigated prognostic biomarkers for their ability to predict cardiovascular events or mortality. It is unknown whether biomarkers allow prediction of quality of life (QoL) after survival of the acute event. Herein, we investigated the prognostic potential of well-established inflammatory/cardiovascular blood biomarkers including white blood cells (WBC), C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), pro-adrenomedullin (proADM) and pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (proANP) in regard to a decline in QoL in a well-defined cohort of patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Within this secondary analysis including 753 patients with a final inpatient diagnosis of CAP from a multicenter trial, we investigated associations between admission biomarker levels and decline in QoL assessed by the EQ-5D health questionnaire from admission to day 30 and after 6 years. Admission proADM and proANP levels significantly predicted decline of the weighted EQ-5D index after 30 days (n=753) with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of 2.0 ([95% CI 1.1-3.8]; p=0.027) and 3.7 ([95% CI 2.2-6.0]; pscale (VAS). Initial WBC, PCT and CRP values did not well predict QoL at any time point. ProADM and proANP accurately predict short- and long-term decline in QoL across most dimensions in CAP patients. It will be interesting to reveal underlying physiopathology in future studies.

  1. Predicting the life-cycle performance of an EGS by numerical simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöcher, G.; Zimmermann, G.; Moeck, I.; Brandt, W.; Huenges, E.

    2009-04-01

    matrix and fractures were determined by laboratory and field experiments. We present the predicted temperature change during 30 years life-cycle due to continuous injection of 70°C cold water /after serving as the heat source for a ORC power cycle) with a flow rate of 75m³/h.

  2. Uncertainties in model-based outcome predictions for treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deasy, Joseph O.; Chao, K.S. Clifford; Markman, Jerry

    2001-01-01

    Purpose: Model-based treatment-plan-specific outcome predictions (such as normal tissue complication probability [NTCP] or the relative reduction in salivary function) are typically presented without reference to underlying uncertainties. We provide a method to assess the reliability of treatment-plan-specific dose-volume outcome model predictions. Methods and Materials: A practical method is proposed for evaluating model prediction based on the original input data together with bootstrap-based estimates of parameter uncertainties. The general framework is applicable to continuous variable predictions (e.g., prediction of long-term salivary function) and dichotomous variable predictions (e.g., tumor control probability [TCP] or NTCP). Using bootstrap resampling, a histogram of the likelihood of alternative parameter values is generated. For a given patient and treatment plan we generate a histogram of alternative model results by computing the model predicted outcome for each parameter set in the bootstrap list. Residual uncertainty ('noise') is accounted for by adding a random component to the computed outcome values. The residual noise distribution is estimated from the original fit between model predictions and patient data. Results: The method is demonstrated using a continuous-endpoint model to predict long-term salivary function for head-and-neck cancer patients. Histograms represent the probabilities for the level of posttreatment salivary function based on the input clinical data, the salivary function model, and the three-dimensional dose distribution. For some patients there is significant uncertainty in the prediction of xerostomia, whereas for other patients the predictions are expected to be more reliable. In contrast, TCP and NTCP endpoints are dichotomous, and parameter uncertainties should be folded directly into the estimated probabilities, thereby improving the accuracy of the estimates. Using bootstrap parameter estimates, competing treatment

  3. Degradation Prediction Model Based on a Neural Network with Dynamic Windows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xinghui; Xiao, Lei; Kang, Jianshe

    2015-01-01

    Tracking degradation of mechanical components is very critical for effective maintenance decision making. Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is a widely used form of degradation prediction. RUL prediction methods when enough run-to-failure condition monitoring data can be used have been fully researched, but for some high reliability components, it is very difficult to collect run-to-failure condition monitoring data, i.e., from normal to failure. Only a certain number of condition indicators in certain period can be used to estimate RUL. In addition, some existing prediction methods have problems which block RUL estimation due to poor extrapolability. The predicted value converges to a certain constant or fluctuates in certain range. Moreover, the fluctuant condition features also have bad effects on prediction. In order to solve these dilemmas, this paper proposes a RUL prediction model based on neural network with dynamic windows. This model mainly consists of three steps: window size determination by increasing rate, change point detection and rolling prediction. The proposed method has two dominant strengths. One is that the proposed approach does not need to assume the degradation trajectory is subject to a certain distribution. The other is it can adapt to variation of degradation indicators which greatly benefits RUL prediction. Finally, the performance of the proposed RUL prediction model is validated by real field data and simulation data. PMID:25806873

  4. Meta-path based heterogeneous combat network link prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jichao; Ge, Bingfeng; Yang, Kewei; Chen, Yingwu; Tan, Yuejin

    2017-09-01

    The combat system-of-systems in high-tech informative warfare, composed of many interconnected combat systems of different types, can be regarded as a type of complex heterogeneous network. Link prediction for heterogeneous combat networks (HCNs) is of significant military value, as it facilitates reconfiguring combat networks to represent the complex real-world network topology as appropriate with observed information. This paper proposes a novel integrated methodology framework called HCNMP (HCN link prediction based on meta-path) to predict multiple types of links simultaneously for an HCN. More specifically, the concept of HCN meta-paths is introduced, through which the HCNMP can accumulate information by extracting different features of HCN links for all the six defined types. Next, an HCN link prediction model, based on meta-path features, is built to predict all types of links of the HCN simultaneously. Then, the solution algorithm for the HCN link prediction model is proposed, in which the prediction results are obtained by iteratively updating with the newly predicted results until the results in the HCN converge or reach a certain maximum iteration number. Finally, numerical experiments on the dataset of a real HCN are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed HCNMP, in comparison with 30 baseline methods. The results show that the performance of the HCNMP is superior to those of the baseline methods.

  5. Comparison of Simple Versus Performance-Based Fall Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shekhar K. Gadkaree BS

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To compare the predictive ability of standard falls prediction models based on physical performance assessments with more parsimonious prediction models based on self-reported data. Design: We developed a series of fall prediction models progressing in complexity and compared area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC across models. Setting: National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS, which surveyed a nationally representative sample of Medicare enrollees (age ≥65 at baseline (Round 1: 2011-2012 and 1-year follow-up (Round 2: 2012-2013. Participants: In all, 6,056 community-dwelling individuals participated in Rounds 1 and 2 of NHATS. Measurements: Primary outcomes were 1-year incidence of “ any fall ” and “ recurrent falls .” Prediction models were compared and validated in development and validation sets, respectively. Results: A prediction model that included demographic information, self-reported problems with balance and coordination, and previous fall history was the most parsimonious model that optimized AUC for both any fall (AUC = 0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI] = [0.67, 0.71] and recurrent falls (AUC = 0.77, 95% CI = [0.74, 0.79] in the development set. Physical performance testing provided a marginal additional predictive value. Conclusion: A simple clinical prediction model that does not include physical performance testing could facilitate routine, widespread falls risk screening in the ambulatory care setting.

  6. Modeling size effects on fatigue life of a zirconium-based bulk metallic glass under bending

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan Tao; Wang Gongyao; Feng Qingming; Liaw, Peter K.; Yokoyama, Yoshihiko; Inoue, Akihisa

    2013-01-01

    A size effect on the fatigue-life cycles of a Zr 50 Cu 30 Al 10 Ni 10 (at.%) bulk metallic glass has been observed in the four-point-bending fatigue experiment. Under the same bending-stress condition, large-sized samples tend to exhibit longer fatigue lives than small-sized samples. This size effect on the fatigue life cannot be satisfactorily explained by the flaw-based Weibull theories. Based on the experimental results, this study explores possible approaches to modeling the size effects on the bending-fatigue life of bulk metallic glasses, and proposes two fatigue-life models based on the Weibull distribution. The first model assumes, empirically, log-linear effects of the sample thickness on the Weibull parameters. The second model incorporates the mechanistic knowledge of the fatigue behavior of metallic glasses, and assumes that the shear-band density, instead of the flaw density, has significant influence on the bending fatigue-life cycles. Promising predictive results provide evidence of the potential validity of the models and their assumptions.

  7. NAPR: a Cloud-Based Framework for Neuroanatomical Age Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pardoe, Heath R; Kuzniecky, Ruben

    2018-01-01

    The availability of cloud computing services has enabled the widespread adoption of the "software as a service" (SaaS) approach for software distribution, which utilizes network-based access to applications running on centralized servers. In this paper we apply the SaaS approach to neuroimaging-based age prediction. Our system, named "NAPR" (Neuroanatomical Age Prediction using R), provides access to predictive modeling software running on a persistent cloud-based Amazon Web Services (AWS) compute instance. The NAPR framework allows external users to estimate the age of individual subjects using cortical thickness maps derived from their own locally processed T1-weighted whole brain MRI scans. As a demonstration of the NAPR approach, we have developed two age prediction models that were trained using healthy control data from the ABIDE, CoRR, DLBS and NKI Rockland neuroimaging datasets (total N = 2367, age range 6-89 years). The provided age prediction models were trained using (i) relevance vector machines and (ii) Gaussian processes machine learning methods applied to cortical thickness surfaces obtained using Freesurfer v5.3. We believe that this transparent approach to out-of-sample evaluation and comparison of neuroimaging age prediction models will facilitate the development of improved age prediction models and allow for robust evaluation of the clinical utility of these methods.

  8. Remaining useful life estimation based on discriminating shapelet extraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malinowski, Simon; Chebel-Morello, Brigitte; Zerhouni, Noureddine

    2015-01-01

    In the Prognostics and Health Management domain, estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of critical machinery is a challenging task. Various research topics including data acquisition, fusion, diagnostics and prognostics are involved in this domain. This paper presents an approach, based on shapelet extraction, to estimate the RUL of equipment. This approach extracts, in an offline step, discriminative rul-shapelets from an history of run-to-failure data. These rul-shapelets are patterns that are selected for their correlation with the remaining useful life of the equipment. In other words, every selected rul-shapelet conveys its own information about the RUL of the equipment. In an online step, these rul-shapelets are compared to testing units and the ones that match these units are used to estimate their RULs. Therefore, RUL estimation is based on patterns that have been selected for their high correlation with the RUL. This approach is different from classical similarity-based approaches that attempt to match complete testing units (or only late instants of testing units) with training ones to estimate the RUL. The performance of our approach is evaluated on a case study on the remaining useful life estimation of turbofan engines and performance is compared with other similarity-based approaches. - Highlights: • A data-driven RUL estimation technique based on pattern extraction is proposed. • Patterns are extracted for their correlation with the RUL. • The proposed method shows good performance compared to other techniques

  9. Coupling between cracking and permeability, a model for structure service life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lasne, M.; Gerard, B.; Breysse, D.

    1993-01-01

    Many authors have chosen permeability coefficients (permeation, diffusion) as a reference for material durability and for structure service life prediction. When we look for designing engineered barriers for radioactive waste storage we find these macroscopic parameters very essential. In order to work with a predictive model of transfer properties evolution in a porous media (concrete, mortar, rock) we introduce a 'micro-macro' hierarchical model of permeability whose data are the total porosity and the pore size distribution. In spite of the simplicity of the model (very small CPU time consuming) comparative studies show predictive results for sound cement pastes, mortars and concretes. Associated to these works we apply a model of damage due to hydration processes at early ages to a container as a preliminary underproject for the definitive storage of Low Level radioactive Waste (LLW). Data are geometry, cement properties and damage measurement of concrete. This model takes into account the mechanical property of the concrete maturation (volumic variations during cement hydration can damage the structures). Some local microcracking can appear and affect the long term durability. Following these works we introduce our research program for the concrete cracking analysis. An experimental campaign is designed in order to determine damage-cracking-porosity-permeability coupling. (authors). 12 figs., 16 refs

  10. Prediction of thyroidal 131I effective half-life in patients with Graves' disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ruiguo; Zhang, Guizhi; Wang, Renfei; Tan, Jian; He, Yajing; Meng, Zhaowei

    2017-10-06

    Calculation of effective thyroidal half-life (Teff) of iodine-131( 131 I) is cumbersome and tedious. The aim of this study was to investigate factors that could be used to predict Teff and to develop a Teff prediction model in Graves' disease patients. A total of 256 patients with GD were involved in this study. We investigated the influences of age, gender, disease duration, thyroid weight, antithyroid drugs, antithyroid drugs discontinuation period (ADP), thyroid function indexes, thyroid autoantibodies, thyroid-stimulating hormone receptor antibody (TRAb) level and radioactive iodine uptake (RAIU) values before 131 I therapy on Teff, applying univariate and multivariate analyses. Teff correlated negatively with thyroid peroxidase antibody, TRAb and thyroid weight, as well as positively with 24-hour, 48-hour, and 72-hour RAIU. Additionally, a longer ADP (especially≥ 14d) or without antithyroid drugs before 131 I therapy led to a longer Teff. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis showed that 24-hour and 72-hour RAIU were statistically significant predictors of Teff ( P Graves' disease, with high prediction accuracy.

  11. Recent developments on SMA actuators: predicting the actuation fatigue life for variable loading schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Robert W.; Lagoudas, Dimitris C.

    2017-04-01

    Shape memory alloys (SMAs), due to their ability to repeatably recover substantial deformations under applied mechanical loading, have the potential to impact the aerospace, automotive, biomedical, and energy industries as weight and volume saving replacements for conventional actuators. While numerous applications of SMA actuators have been flight tested and can be found in industrial applications, these actuators are generally limited to non-critical components, are not widely implemented and frequently one-off designs, and are generally overdesigned due to a lack of understanding of the effect of the loading path on the fatigue life and the lack of an accurate method for predicting actuator lifetimes. In recent years, multiple research efforts have increased our understanding of the actuation fatigue process of SMAs. These advances can be utilized to predict the fatigue lives and failure loads in SMA actuators. Additionally, these prediction methods can be implemented in order to intelligently design actuators in accordance with their fatigue and failure limits. In the following paper, both simple and complex thermomechanical loading paths have been considered. Experimental data was utilized from two material systems: equiatomic Nickel-Titanium and Nickelrich Nickel-Titanium.

  12. Prediction of creep-fatigue life by use of creep rupture ductility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamaguchi, Koji; Suzuki, Naoyuki; Ijima, Kiyoshi; Kanazawa, Kenji

    1985-01-01

    It was clarified that tension strain hold reduced creep-fatigue life of many engineering materials in different degrees depending on material, temperature and test duration. However the reduction in the life due to holding for various durations could be correlated to the fraction of intergranular facets on fracture surfaces which was considered to be an index of the damage introduced during strain hold. This fraction of intergranular facets by creep-fatigue failure exhibited a direct relation to the creep rupture ductility of the material tested at the same temperature and for the same creep-fatigue life-time. From these results an empirical equation has been derived as follow; (Δ sub(epsilonsub(i)))/Dsub(c).(N sub(h sup(α))) = C, where Δ sub(epsilonsub(i)) is inelastic strain range, Dsub(c) is the creep rupture ductility for the same duration as creep-fatigue life time, Nsub(h) is the creep-fatigue life under tension strain hold conditions, and α and C are constants depending on the material and testing temperature. From the equation the life prediction is possible for a given inelastic strain range Δ sub(epsilonsub(i)) if the constants α and C, and Dsub(c) are known. The value of α was found to be 0.62 and 0.74 for various austenitic stainless steels and NCF800 at 600 0 C and 700 0 C, respectively, and 0.69 for 1 1/4Cr-1/2Mo steel at 600 0 C. The value of C was found to be 0.50 and 0.59 for various austenitic stainless steels and NCF800 at 600 0 C and 700 0 C, respectively, and 0.49 for 1 1/4Cr-1/2Mo steel at 600 0 C. The creep rupture ductility Dsub(c) is available in the NRIM Creep Data Sheets up to 10 5 h for multi-heats of many kinds of heat resistant alloys. (author)

  13. Ambulation in adults with myelomeningocele. Is it possible to predict the level of ambulation in early life?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seitzberg, A.; Lind, M.; Biering-Sørensen, Fin

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the prediction of ambulation in adults with myelomeningocele from muscle strength testing and ambulation in early life. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fifty-two myelomeningocele (MMC) individuals at the age 18-37 years at follow-up were studied....... Information on muscle strength and ambulatory function in early life was retrieved from medical records. The motor levels determined by the muscle strength were used to predict ambulatory function later in life. At follow-up, a clinical examination was performed. RESULTS: Of 20 MMC individuals assessed...... life than predicted. Good strength in quadriceps muscles gave significant better prospect for adult walking. Of the 52 participants, 41 retained their ambulation status from 5-8 years of age. CONCLUSION: For MMC individuals with motor levels L3-L5, adult ambulatory function cannot be determined from...

  14. Life-Stage Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This presentation discusses methods used to extrapolate from in vitro high-throughput screening (HTS) toxicity data for an endocrine pathway to in vivo for early life stages in humans, and the use of a life stage PBPK model to address rapidly changing physiological parameters. Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs), in this case endocrine disruption during development, provide a biologically-based framework for linking molecular initiating events triggered by chemical exposures to key events leading to adverse outcomes. The application of AOPs to human health risk assessment requires extrapolation of in vitro HTS toxicity data to in vivo exposures (IVIVE) in humans, which can be achieved through the use of a PBPK/PD model. Exposure scenarios for chemicals in the PBPK/PD model will consider both placental and lactational transfer of chemicals, with a focus on age dependent dosimetry during fetal development and after birth for a nursing infant. This talk proposes a universal life-stage computational model that incorporates changing physiological parameters to link environmental exposures to in vitro levels of HTS assays related to a developmental toxicological AOP for vascular disruption. In vitro toxicity endpoints discussed are based on two mechanisms: 1) Fetal vascular disruption, and 2) Neurodevelopmental toxicity induced by altering thyroid hormone levels in neonates via inhibition of thyroperoxidase in the thyroid gland. Application of our Life-stage computati

  15. Implementation of neural network based non-linear predictive

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Paul Haase; Nørgård, Peter Magnus; Ravn, Ole

    1998-01-01

    The paper describes a control method for non-linear systems based on generalized predictive control. Generalized predictive control (GPC) was developed to control linear systems including open loop unstable and non-minimum phase systems, but has also been proposed extended for the control of non......-linear systems. GPC is model-based and in this paper we propose the use of a neural network for the modeling of the system. Based on the neural network model a controller with extended control horizon is developed and the implementation issues are discussed, with particular emphasis on an efficient Quasi......-Newton optimization algorithm. The performance is demonstrated on a pneumatic servo system....

  16. Prediction-based Dynamic Energy Management in Wireless Sensor Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xue; Ma, Jun-Jie; Wang, Sheng; Bi, Dao-Wei

    2007-01-01

    Energy consumption is a critical constraint in wireless sensor networks. Focusing on the energy efficiency problem of wireless sensor networks, this paper proposes a method of prediction-based dynamic energy management. A particle filter was introduced to predict a target state, which was adopted to awaken wireless sensor nodes so that their sleep time was prolonged. With the distributed computing capability of nodes, an optimization approach of distributed genetic algorithm and simulated annealing was proposed to minimize the energy consumption of measurement. Considering the application of target tracking, we implemented target position prediction, node sleep scheduling and optimal sensing node selection. Moreover, a routing scheme of forwarding nodes was presented to achieve extra energy conservation. Experimental results of target tracking verified that energy-efficiency is enhanced by prediction-based dynamic energy management.

  17. Prediction-based Dynamic Energy Management in Wireless Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dao-Wei Bi

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Energy consumption is a critical constraint in wireless sensor networks. Focusing on the energy efficiency problem of wireless sensor networks, this paper proposes a method of prediction-based dynamic energy management. A particle filter was introduced to predict a target state, which was adopted to awaken wireless sensor nodes so that their sleep time was prolonged. With the distributed computing capability of nodes, an optimization approach of distributed genetic algorithm and simulated annealing was proposed to minimize the energy consumption of measurement. Considering the application of target tracking, we implemented target position prediction, node sleep scheduling and optimal sensing node selection. Moreover, a routing scheme of forwarding nodes was presented to achieve extra energy conservation. Experimental results of target tracking verified that energy-efficiency is enhanced by prediction-based dynamic energy management.

  18. Metabotypes with properly functioning mitochondria and anti-inflammation predict extended productive life span in dairy cows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, K.; Dänicke, S.; Rehage, J.; Sauerwein, H.; Otto, W.; Rolle-Kampczyk, U.; von Bergen, M.

    2016-01-01

    The failure to adapt metabolism to the homeorhetic demands of lactation is considered as a main factor in reducing the productive life span of dairy cows. The so far defined markers of production performance and metabolic health in dairy cows do not predict the length of productive life span satisfyingly. This study aimed to identify novel pathways and biomarkers related to productive life in dairy cows by means of (targeted) metabolomics. In a longitudinal study from 42 days before up to 100 days after parturition, we identified metabolites such as long-chain acylcarnitines and biogenic amines associated with extended productive life spans. These metabolites are mainly secreted by the liver and depend on the functionality of hepatic mitochondria. The concentrations of biogenic amines and some acylcarnitines differed already before the onset of lactation thus indicating their predictive potential for continuation or early ending of productive life. PMID:27089826

  19. Time-sensitive Customer Churn Prediction based on PU Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Li; Chen, Chaochao; Zhou, Jun; Li, Xiaolong

    2018-01-01

    With the fast development of Internet companies throughout the world, customer churn has become a serious concern. To better help the companies retain their customers, it is important to build a customer churn prediction model to identify the customers who are most likely to churn ahead of time. In this paper, we propose a Time-sensitive Customer Churn Prediction (TCCP) framework based on Positive and Unlabeled (PU) learning technique. Specifically, we obtain the recent data by shortening the...

  20. Cloud Based Metalearning System for Predictive Modeling of Biomedical Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Vukićević

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Rapid growth and storage of biomedical data enabled many opportunities for predictive modeling and improvement of healthcare processes. On the other side analysis of such large amounts of data is a difficult and computationally intensive task for most existing data mining algorithms. This problem is addressed by proposing a cloud based system that integrates metalearning framework for ranking and selection of best predictive algorithms for data at hand and open source big data technologies for analysis of biomedical data.

  1. Accurate Multisteps Traffic Flow Prediction Based on SVM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Mingheng

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate traffic flow prediction is prerequisite and important for realizing intelligent traffic control and guidance, and it is also the objective requirement for intelligent traffic management. Due to the strong nonlinear, stochastic, time-varying characteristics of urban transport system, artificial intelligence methods such as support vector machine (SVM are now receiving more and more attentions in this research field. Compared with the traditional single-step prediction method, the multisteps prediction has the ability that can predict the traffic state trends over a certain period in the future. From the perspective of dynamic decision, it is far important than the current traffic condition obtained. Thus, in this paper, an accurate multi-steps traffic flow prediction model based on SVM was proposed. In which, the input vectors were comprised of actual traffic volume and four different types of input vectors were compared to verify their prediction performance with each other. Finally, the model was verified with actual data in the empirical analysis phase and the test results showed that the proposed SVM model had a good ability for traffic flow prediction and the SVM-HPT model outperformed the other three models for prediction.

  2. Response Surface Approximation for Fatigue Life Prediction and Its Application to Multi-Criteria Optimization With a Priori Preference Information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baek, Seok Heum; Joo, Won Sik; Cho, Seok Swoo

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, a versatile multi-criteria optimization concept for fatigue life prediction is introduced. Multi-criteria decision making in engineering design refers to obtaining a preferred optimal solution in the context of conflicting design objectives. Compromise decision support problems are used to model engineering decisions involving multiple trade-offs. These methods typically rely on a summation of weighted attributes to accomplish trade-offs among competing objectives. This paper gives an interpretation of the decision parameters as governing both the relative importance of the attributes and the degree of compensation between them. The approach utilizes a response surface model, the compromise decision support problem, which is a multi-objective formulation based on goal programming. Examples illustrate the concepts and demonstrate their applicability

  3. Gene function prediction based on Gene Ontology Hierarchy Preserving Hashing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yingwen; Fu, Guangyuan; Wang, Jun; Guo, Maozu; Yu, Guoxian

    2018-02-23

    Gene Ontology (GO) uses structured vocabularies (or terms) to describe the molecular functions, biological roles, and cellular locations of gene products in a hierarchical ontology. GO annotations associate genes with GO terms and indicate the given gene products carrying out the biological functions described by the relevant terms. However, predicting correct GO annotations for genes from a massive set of GO terms as defined by GO is a difficult challenge. To combat with this challenge, we introduce a Gene Ontology Hierarchy Preserving Hashing (HPHash) based semantic method for gene function prediction. HPHash firstly measures the taxonomic similarity between GO terms. It then uses a hierarchy preserving hashing technique to keep the hierarchical order between GO terms, and to optimize a series of hashing functions to encode massive GO terms via compact binary codes. After that, HPHash utilizes these hashing functions to project the gene-term association matrix into a low-dimensional one and performs semantic similarity based gene function prediction in the low-dimensional space. Experimental results on three model species (Homo sapiens, Mus musculus and Rattus norvegicus) for interspecies gene function prediction show that HPHash performs better than other related approaches and it is robust to the number of hash functions. In addition, we also take HPHash as a plugin for BLAST based gene function prediction. From the experimental results, HPHash again significantly improves the prediction performance. The codes of HPHash are available at: http://mlda.swu.edu.cn/codes.php?name=HPHash. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Availability and mean life time prediction of multistage degraded system with partial repairs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pham, Hoang; Suprasad, A.; Misra, R.B.

    1997-01-01

    In some environments, components might not always fail fully, but can degrade, and there can be multiple stages of degradation. In such cases, the efficiency of the system may decrease. After a certain stage of degradation the efficiency of the system may decrease to an unacceptable limit and can be considered as a total failure. However, the system can fail randomly from any stage. and can be repaired. Further, the repair action cannot bring the system to the good stage, but can make it operational and the failure rate of the system will, therefore, remain the same as before the failure. In this study, we present a model for predicting the reliability, availability, mean life time, and mean time to first failure of multistage degraded systems with partial repairs. In the analysis, state dependent transition rates for the degradation process, as well as repair processes, are considered. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the results

  5. Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

    2017-04-21

    International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions.

  6. Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

    2017-04-01

    International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions.

  7. Development and Life Prediction of Erosion Resistant Turbine Low Conductivity Thermal Barrier Coatings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Dongming; Miller, Robert A.; Kuczmarski, Maria A.

    2010-01-01

    Future rotorcraft propulsion systems are required to operate under highly-loaded conditions and in harsh sand erosion environments, thereby imposing significant material design and durability issues. The incorporation of advanced thermal barrier coatings (TBC) in high pressure turbine systems enables engine designs with higher inlet temperatures, thus improving the engine efficiency, power density and reliability. The impact and erosion resistance of turbine thermal barrier coating systems are crucial to the turbine coating technology application, because a robust turbine blade TBC system is a prerequisite for fully utilizing the potential coating technology benefit in the rotorcraft propulsion. This paper describes the turbine blade TBC development in addressing the coating impact and erosion resistance. Advanced thermal barrier coating systems with improved performance have also been validated in laboratory simulated engine erosion and/or thermal gradient environments. A preliminary life prediction modeling approach to emphasize the turbine blade coating erosion is also presented.

  8. Bridge Structure Deformation Prediction Based on GNSS Data Using Kalman-ARIMA-GARCH Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xin, Jingzhou; Zhou, Jianting; Yang, Simon X; Li, Xiaoqing; Wang, Yu

    2018-01-19

    Bridges are an essential part of the ground transportation system. Health monitoring is fundamentally important for the safety and service life of bridges. A large amount of structural information is obtained from various sensors using sensing technology, and the data processing has become a challenging issue. To improve the prediction accuracy of bridge structure deformation based on data mining and to accurately evaluate the time-varying characteristics of bridge structure performance evolution, this paper proposes a new method for bridge structure deformation prediction, which integrates the Kalman filter, autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH). Firstly, the raw deformation data is directly pre-processed using the Kalman filter to reduce the noise. After that, the linear recursive ARIMA model is established to analyze and predict the structure deformation. Finally, the nonlinear recursive GARCH model is introduced to further improve the accuracy of the prediction. Simulation results based on measured sensor data from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) deformation monitoring system demonstrated that: (1) the Kalman filter is capable of denoising the bridge deformation monitoring data; (2) the prediction accuracy of the proposed Kalman-ARIMA-GARCH model is satisfactory, where the mean absolute error increases only from 3.402 mm to 5.847 mm with the increment of the prediction step; and (3) in comparision to the Kalman-ARIMA model, the Kalman-ARIMA-GARCH model results in superior prediction accuracy as it includes partial nonlinear characteristics (heteroscedasticity); the mean absolute error of five-step prediction using the proposed model is improved by 10.12%. This paper provides a new way for structural behavior prediction based on data processing, which can lay a foundation for the early warning of bridge health monitoring system based on sensor data using sensing

  9. Bridge Structure Deformation Prediction Based on GNSS Data Using Kalman-ARIMA-GARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingzhou Xin

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Bridges are an essential part of the ground transportation system. Health monitoring is fundamentally important for the safety and service life of bridges. A large amount of structural information is obtained from various sensors using sensing technology, and the data processing has become a challenging issue. To improve the prediction accuracy of bridge structure deformation based on data mining and to accurately evaluate the time-varying characteristics of bridge structure performance evolution, this paper proposes a new method for bridge structure deformation prediction, which integrates the Kalman filter, autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA, and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH. Firstly, the raw deformation data is directly pre-processed using the Kalman filter to reduce the noise. After that, the linear recursive ARIMA model is established to analyze and predict the structure deformation. Finally, the nonlinear recursive GARCH model is introduced to further improve the accuracy of the prediction. Simulation results based on measured sensor data from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS deformation monitoring system demonstrated that: (1 the Kalman filter is capable of denoising the bridge deformation monitoring data; (2 the prediction accuracy of the proposed Kalman-ARIMA-GARCH model is satisfactory, where the mean absolute error increases only from 3.402 mm to 5.847 mm with the increment of the prediction step; and (3 in comparision to the Kalman-ARIMA model, the Kalman-ARIMA-GARCH model results in superior prediction accuracy as it includes partial nonlinear characteristics (heteroscedasticity; the mean absolute error of five-step prediction using the proposed model is improved by 10.12%. This paper provides a new way for structural behavior prediction based on data processing, which can lay a foundation for the early warning of bridge health monitoring system based on sensor data

  10. Life management of power plant based on structural damage testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tallermo, H.; Klevtsov, I. [Thermal Engineering Department of Tallinn Technical University, Tallinn (Estonia); Arras, V. [Eesti Energia, Tallinn (Estonia)

    1998-12-31

    Life management system is based on the valid nowadays in Estonian power plants regulation documentation. The system allows to estimate stress distribution in components, find computational assessment of cumulated creep damage, determine when and where it is necessary to cut off the particular number of microsamples or take replicas. Finally, the real metal condition may be assessed on the basis of metallographic specimen research and reasonable 3-R decision - run, repair, replacement - made on further component use. (orig.) 6 refs.

  11. Life management of power plant based on structural damage testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tallermo, H; Klevtsov, I [Thermal Engineering Department of Tallinn Technical University, Tallinn (Estonia); Arras, V [Eesti Energia, Tallinn (Estonia)

    1999-12-31

    Life management system is based on the valid nowadays in Estonian power plants regulation documentation. The system allows to estimate stress distribution in components, find computational assessment of cumulated creep damage, determine when and where it is necessary to cut off the particular number of microsamples or take replicas. Finally, the real metal condition may be assessed on the basis of metallographic specimen research and reasonable 3-R decision - run, repair, replacement - made on further component use. (orig.) 6 refs.

  12. An IoT Based Predictive Connected Car Maintenance Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rohit Dhall

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Internet of Things (IoT is fast emerging and becoming an almost basic necessity in general life. The concepts of using technology in our daily life is not new, but with the advancements in technology, the impact of technology in daily activities of a person can be seen in almost all the aspects of life. Today, all aspects of our daily life, be it health of a person, his location, movement, etc. can be monitored and analyzed using information captured from various connected devices. This paper discusses one such use case, which can be implemented by the automobile industry, using technological advancements in the areas of IoT and Analytics. ‘Connected Car’ is a terminology, often associated with cars and other passenger vehicles, which are capable of internet connectivity and sharing of various kinds of data with backend applications. The data being shared can be about the location and speed of the car, status of various parts/lubricants of the car, and if the car needs urgent service or not. Once data are transmitted to the backend services, various workflows can be created to take necessary actions, e.g. scheduling a service with the car service provider, or if large numbers of care are in the same location, then the traffic management system can take necessary action. ’Connected cars’ can also communicate with each other, and can send alerts to each other in certain scenarios like possible crash etc. This paper talks about how the concept of ‘connected cars’ can be used to perform ‘predictive car maintenance’. It also discusses how certain technology components, i.e., Eclipse Mosquito and Eclipse Paho can be used to implement a predictive connected car use case.

  13. Reliability Evaluation on Creep Life Prediction of Alloy 617 for a Very High Temperature Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woo-Gon; Hong, Sung-Deok; Kim, Yong-Wan; Park, Jae-Young; Kim, Seon-Jin

    2012-01-01

    This paper evaluates the reliability of creep rupture life under service conditions of Alloy 617, which is considered as one of the candidate materials for use in a very high temperature reactor (VHTR) system. A Z-parameter, which represents the deviation of creep rupture data from the master curve, was used for the reliability analysis of the creep rupture data of Alloy 617. A Service-condition Creep Rupture Interference (SCRI) model, which can consider both the scattering of the creep rupture data and the fluctuations of temperature and stress under any service conditions, was also used for evaluating the reliability of creep rupture life. The statistical analysis showed that the scattering of creep rupture data based on Z-parameter was supported by normal distribution. The values of reliability decreased rapidly with increasing amplitudes of temperature and stress fluctuations. The results established that the reliability decreased with an increasing service time.

  14. Predicting the natural mortality of marine fish from life history characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gislason, Henrik

    For fish much of the life history is determined by body size. Body size and asymptotic size significantly influences important life history processes such as growth, maturity, egg production, and natural mortality. Futhermore, for a population to persist, offspring must be able to replace...... their parents on a one-for-one basis in the long run. Otherwise the population would either increase exponentially or become extinct. Combining data on growth and specific fecundity in a size-based fish community model of the North Sea and using the requirement of a one-for-one replacement provides...... the information necessary to estimate the scaling of natural mortality with size and asymptotic size. The estimated scaling is compared with output from multispecies fish stock models, with the empirical scaling of the maximum number of recruits per unit of spawning stock biomass with body size...

  15. Lower levels of maternal capital in early life predict offspring obesity in adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillette, Meghan T; Lohman, Brenda J; Neppl, Tricia K

    2017-05-01

    As of 2013, 65% of the world's population lived in countries where overweight/obesity kills more people than being underweight. Evolutionary perspectives provide a holistic understanding of both how and why obesity develops and its long-term implications. To test whether the maternal capital hypothesis, an evolutionary perspective, is viable for explaining the development of obesity in adulthood. Restricted-use data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health; n = 11 403) was analysed using logistic regressions. The sample included adolescents and their biological mothers. The odds of obesity in adulthood increased by 22% for every standard deviation increase in lack of maternal capital (Exp (B) = 1.22, p obese in adulthood, even after controlling for other factors in infancy, adolescence and adulthood. The results showed that those whose mothers had lower capital were more prone to later life disease (specifically, obesity). The maternal capital perspective is useful for explaining how and why early life characteristics (including maternal resources) predict obesity in adulthood. Implications of the findings are discussed.

  16. Satellite Lithium-Ion Battery Remaining Cycle Life Prediction with Novel Indirect Health Indicator Extraction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haitao Liao

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Prognostics and remaining useful life (RUL estimation for lithium-ion batteries play an important role in intelligent battery management systems (BMS. The capacity is often used as the fade indicator for estimating the remaining cycle life of a lithium-ion battery. For spacecraft requiring high reliability and long lifetime, in-orbit RUL estimation and reliability verification on ground should be carefully addressed. However, it is quite challenging to monitor and estimate the capacity of a lithium-ion battery on-line in satellite applications. In this work, a novel health indicator (HI is extracted from the operating parameters of a lithium-ion battery to quantify battery degradation. Moreover, the Grey Correlation Analysis (GCA is utilized to evaluate the similarities between the extracted HI and the battery’s capacity. The result illustrates the effectiveness of using this new HI for fading indication. Furthermore, we propose an optimized ensemble monotonic echo state networks (En_MONESN algorithm, in which the monotonic constraint is introduced to improve the adaptivity of degradation trend estimation, and ensemble learning is integrated to achieve high stability and precision of RUL prediction. Experiments with actual testing data show the efficiency of our proposed method in RUL estimation and degradation modeling for the satellite lithium-ion battery application.

  17. Appetite and Weight Loss Symptoms in Late-Life Depression Predict Dementia Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Sayoni; Hatch, Daniel J; Hayden, Kathleen M; Steffens, David C; Potter, Guy G

    2016-10-01

    Identify depression symptoms during active late-life depression (LLD) that predict conversion to dementia. The authors followed a cohort of 290 participants from the Neurocognitive Outcomes of Depression in the Elderly study. All participants were actively depressed and cognitively normal at enrollment. Depression symptom factors were derived from prior factor analysis: anhedonia and sadness, suicidality and guilt, appetite and weight loss, sleep disturbance, and anxiety and tension. Cox regression analysis modeled time to Alzheimer disease (AD) and non-AD dementia onset on depression symptom factors, along with age, education, sex, and race. Significant dementia predictors were tested for interaction with age at depression onset. Higher scores on the appetite and weight loss symptom factor were associated with an increased hazard of both AD and non-AD dementia. This factor was moderated by age at first depression onset, such that higher scores were associated with higher risk of non-AD dementia when depression first occurred earlier in life. Other depression symptom factors and overall depression severity were not related to risk of AD or non-AD dementia. Results suggest greater appetite/weight loss symptoms in active episodes of LLD are associated with increased likelihood of AD and non-AD dementia, but possibly via different pathways moderated by age at first depression onset. Results may help clinicians identify individuals with LLD at higher risk of developing AD and non-AD dementia and design interventions that reduce this risk. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  18. Should solar photovoltaics be deployed sooner because of long operating life at low, predictable cost?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zweibel, Ken

    2010-01-01

    Governments subsidize the deployment of solar photovoltaics (PV) because PV is deployed for societal purposes. About seven thousand megawatts were deployed in 2009 and over 10,000 are expected in 2010. Yet this is too slow to strongly affect energy and environmental challenges. Faster societal deployment is slowed because PV is perceived to be too costly. Classic economic evaluations would put PV electricity in the range of 15-50 c/kWh, depending on local sunlight and system size. But PV has an unusual, overlooked value: systems can last for a very long time with almost no operating costs, much like, e.g., the Hoover Dam. This long life is rarely taken into account. The private sector cannot use it because far-future cash flow does not add to asset value. But we should not be evaluating PV by business metrics. Governments already make up the difference in return on investment needed to deploy PV. PV deployment is government infrastructure development or direct purchases. Thus the question is: Does the usually unevaluated aspect of long life at predictably low operating costs further motivate governments to deploy more PV, sooner?

  19. Stressful Life Events Predict Eating Disorder Relapse Following Remission: Six-Year Prospective Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grilo, Carlos M.; Pagano, Maria E.; Stout, Robert L.; Markowitz, John C.; Ansell, Emily B.; Pinto, Anthony; Zanarini, Mary C.; Yen, Shirley; Skodol, Andrew E.

    2012-01-01

    Objective To examine prospectively the natural course of bulimia nervosa (BN) and eating disorder not-otherwise-specified (EDNOS) and test for the effects of stressful life events (SLE) on relapse after remission from these eating disorders. Method 117 female patients with BN (N = 35) or EDNOS (N = 82) were prospectively followed for 72 months using structured interviews performed at baseline, 6- and 12-months, and then yearly thereafter. ED were assessed with the structured clinical interview for DSM-IV, and monitored over time with the longitudinal interval follow-up evaluation. Personality disorders were assessed with the diagnostic interview for DSM-IV-personality-disorders, and monitored over time with the follow-along-version. The occurrence and specific timing of SLE were assessed with the life events assessment interview. Cox proportional-hazard-regression-analyses tested associations between time-varying levels of SLE and ED relapse, controlling for comorbid psychiatric disorders, ED duration, and time-varying personality-disorder status. Results ED relapse probability was 43%; BN and EDNOS did not differ in time to relapse. Negative SLE significantly predicted ED relapse; elevated work and social stressors were significant predictors. Psychiatric comorbidity, ED duration, and time-varying personality-disorder status were not significant predictors. Discussion Higher work and social stress represent significant warning signs for triggering relapse for women with remitted BN and EDNOS. PMID:21448971

  20. The effect of genealogy-based haplotypes on genomic prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edriss, Vahid; Fernando, Rohan L.; Su, Guosheng

    2013-01-01

    on haplotypes instead of regression on individual markers. The aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of genomic prediction using haplotypes based on local genealogy information. Methods A total of 4429 Danish Holstein bulls were genotyped with the 50K SNP chip. Haplotypes were constructed using...... local genealogical trees. Effects of haplotype covariates were estimated with two types of prediction models: (1) assuming that effects had the same distribution for all haplotype covariates, i.e. the GBLUP method and (2) assuming that a large proportion (pi) of the haplotype covariates had zero effect......, i.e. a Bayesian mixture method. Results About 7.5 times more covariate effects were estimated when fitting haplotypes based on local genealogical trees compared to fitting individuals markers. Genealogy-based haplotype clustering slightly increased the accuracy of genomic prediction and, in some...

  1. Attachment Style Predicts Affect, Cognitive Appraisals, and Social Functioning in Daily Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamara eSheinbaum

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The way in which attachment styles are expressed in the moment as individuals navigate their real-life settings has remained an area largely untapped by attachment research. The present study examined how adult attachment styles are expressed in daily life using Experience Sampling Methodology (ESM in a sample of 206 Spanish young adults. Participants were administered the Attachment Style Interview and received personal digital assistants that signaled them randomly eight times per day for one week to complete questionnaires about their current experiences and social context. As hypothesized, participants’ momentary affective states, cognitive appraisals, and social functioning varied in meaningful ways as a function of their attachment style. Individuals with an anxious attachment, as compared with securely attached individuals, endorsed experiences that were congruent with hyperactivating tendencies, such as higher negative affect, stress, and perceived social rejection. By contrast, individuals with an avoidant attachment, relative to individuals with a secure attachment, endorsed experiences that were consistent with deactivating tendencies, such as decreased positive states and a decreased desire to be with others when alone. Furthermore, the expression of attachment styles in social contexts was shown to be dependent upon the subjective appraisal of the closeness of social contacts, and not merely upon the presence of social interactions. The findings support the ecological validity of the Attachment Style Interview and the person-by-situation character of attachment theory. Moreover, they highlight the utility of ESM for investigating how the predictions derived from attachment theory play out in the natural flow of real life.

  2. Comparing methodologies for structural identification and fatigue life prediction of a highway bridge

    OpenAIRE

    Pai, Sai Ganesh Sarvotham; Nussbaumer, Alain; Smith, Ian F. C.

    2018-01-01

    Accurate measurement-data interpretation leads to increased understanding of structural behavior and enhanced asset-management decision making. In this paper, four data-interpretation methodologies, residual minimization, traditional Bayesian model updating, modified Bayesian model updating (with an L∞-norm-based Gaussian likelihood function), and error-domain model falsification (EDMF), a method that rejects models that have unlikely differences between predictions and measurements, are comp...

  3. Comparing Structural Identification Methodologies for Fatigue Life Prediction of a Highway Bridge

    OpenAIRE

    Pai, Sai G.S.; Nussbaumer, Alain; Smith, Ian F.C.

    2018-01-01

    Accurate measurement-data interpretation leads to increased understanding of structural behavior and enhanced asset-management decision making. In this paper, four data-interpretation methodologies, residual minimization, traditional Bayesian model updating, modified Bayesian model updating (with an L∞-norm-based Gaussian likelihood function), and error-domain model falsification (EDMF), a method that rejects models that have unlikely differences between predictions and measurements, are comp...

  4. Support vector machine based estimation of remaining useful life: current research status and future trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Hong Zhong; Wang, Hai Kun; Li, Yan Feng; Zhang, Longlong; Liu, Zhiliang

    2015-01-01

    Estimation of remaining useful life (RUL) is helpful to manage life cycles of machines and to reduce maintenance cost. Support vector machine (SVM) is a promising algorithm for estimation of RUL because it can easily process small training sets and multi-dimensional data. Many SVM based methods have been proposed to predict RUL of some key components. We did a literature review related to SVM based RUL estimation within a decade. The references reviewed are classified into two categories: improved SVM algorithms and their applications to RUL estimation. The latter category can be further divided into two types: one, to predict the condition state in the future and then build a relationship between state and RUL; two, to establish a direct relationship between current state and RUL. However, SVM is seldom used to track the degradation process and build an accurate relationship between the current health condition state and RUL. Based on the above review and summary, this paper points out that the ability to continually improve SVM, and obtain a novel idea for RUL prediction using SVM will be future works.

  5. Quality of life related to health chronic kidney disease: Predictive importance of mood and somatic symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perales Montilla, Carmen M; Duschek, Stefan; Reyes Del Paso, Gustavo A

    2016-01-01

    To compare the predictive capacity of self-reported somatic symptoms and mood (depression and anxiety) on health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in patients with chronic renal disease. Data were obtained from 52 patients undergoing haemodialysis. Measures included a) the SF-36 health survey, b) the somatic symptoms scale revised (ESS-R) and c) the hospital anxiety and depression scale (HADS). Multiple regression was the main method of statistical analysis. Patients exhibited HRQOL levels below normative values, with anxiety and depression prevalence at 36.5% and 27%, respectively. Mood was the strongest predictor of physical (β=-.624) and mental (β=-.709) HRQOL. Somatic symptoms were also associated with physical HRQOL, but their predictive value was weaker (β=-.270). These results indicate that mood is a superior predictor of the physical and mental components of HRQOL in patients compared with the number and severity of physical symptoms. The data underline the importance of assessing negative emotional states (depression and anxiety) in kidney patients as a basis for intervention, which may facilitate reduction of the impact of chronic renal disease on HRQOL. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Nefrología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  6. Life Prediction Model for Grid-Connected Li-ion Battery Energy Storage System: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Kandler A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Saxon, Aron R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, Matthew A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lundstrom, Blake R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cao, Ziwei [SunPower Corporation; Roc, Albert [SunPower Corp.

    2017-08-25

    Life Prediction Model for Grid-Connected Li-ion Battery Energy Storage System: Preprint Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are being deployed on the electrical grid for a variety of purposes, such as to smooth fluctuations in solar renewable power generation. The lifetime of these batteries will vary depending on their thermal environment and how they are charged and discharged. To optimal utilization of a battery over its lifetime requires characterization of its performance degradation under different storage and cycling conditions. Aging tests were conducted on commercial graphite/nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) Li-ion cells. A general lifetime prognostic model framework is applied to model changes in capacity and resistance as the battery degrades. Across 9 aging test conditions from 0oC to 55oC, the model predicts capacity fade with 1.4 percent RMS error and resistance growth with 15 percent RMS error. The model, recast in state variable form with 8 states representing separate fade mechanisms, is used to extrapolate lifetime for example applications of the energy storage system integrated with renewable photovoltaic (PV) power generation.

  7. Bioregenerative life support system for a lunar base

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, H.; Wang, J.; Manukovsky, N. S.; Kovalev, V. S.; Gurevich, Yu. L.

    We have studied a modular approach to construction of bioregenerative life support system BLSS for a lunar base using soil-like substrate SLS for plant cultivation Calculations of massflow rates in BLSS were based mostly on a vegetarian diet and biological conversion of plant residues in SLS Plant candidate list for lunar BLSS includes the following basic species rice Oryza sativa soy Glycine max sweet potato Ipomoea batatas and wheat Triticum aestivum To reduce the time necessary for transition of the system to steady state we suggest that the first seeding and sprouting could be made on Earth

  8. Model Predictive Control based on Finite Impulse Response Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prasath, Guru; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2008-01-01

    We develop a regularized l2 finite impulse response (FIR) predictive controller with input and input-rate constraints. Feedback is based on a simple constant output disturbance filter. The performance of the predictive controller in the face of plant-model mismatch is investigated by simulations...... and related to the uncertainty of the impulse response coefficients. The simulations can be used to benchmark l2 MPC against FIR based robust MPC as well as to estimate the maximum performance improvements by robust MPC....

  9. Comparisons of Faulting-Based Pavement Performance Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weina Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Faulting prediction is the core of concrete pavement maintenance and design. Highway agencies are always faced with the problem of lower accuracy for the prediction which causes costly maintenance. Although many researchers have developed some performance prediction models, the accuracy of prediction has remained a challenge. This paper reviews performance prediction models and JPCP faulting models that have been used in past research. Then three models including multivariate nonlinear regression (MNLR model, artificial neural network (ANN model, and Markov Chain (MC model are tested and compared using a set of actual pavement survey data taken on interstate highway with varying design features, traffic, and climate data. It is found that MNLR model needs further recalibration, while the ANN model needs more data for training the network. MC model seems a good tool for pavement performance prediction when the data is limited, but it is based on visual inspections and not explicitly related to quantitative physical parameters. This paper then suggests that the further direction for developing the performance prediction model is incorporating the advantages and disadvantages of different models to obtain better accuracy.

  10. A modelling study for long-term life prediction of carbon steel overpack for geological isolation of High-Level Radioactive Waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taniguchi, Naoki; Honda, Akira; Ishikawa, Hirohisa

    1996-01-01

    Current plans for the geological disposal of High-Level Radioactive Waste (HLW) in Japan include metal overpacks which contain HLW. Overpacks may be required to remain intact for more than several hundred years in order to provide containment of radio nuclides. The main factor limiting the performance of overpacks is considered to be corrosion by groundwater. Carbon steel is one of the candidate material for overpacks. A mathematical model for life prediction of carbon steel overpack has been developed based on corrosion mechanism. General corrosion and localized corrosion are considered because these are likely to initiate in repository conditions. In general corrosion model, the reduction of oxygen and water are considered as cathodic reaction. In localized corrosion model, we have constructed a model which predict the period for localized corrosion based on oxygen transport in bentonite. We also developed a model which predict the propagation rate of localized corrosion that is based on mass balance within the corroding cavity. (author)

  11. Relating lab to life: Decrements in attention over time predict math productivity among children with ADHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fosco, Whitney D; Hawk, Larry W

    2017-02-01

    A child's ability to sustain attention over time (AOT) is critical in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), yet no prior work has examined the extent to which a child's decrement in AOT on laboratory tasks relates to clinically-relevant behavior. The goal of this study is to provide initial evidence for the criterion validity of laboratory assessments of AOT. A total of 20 children with ADHD (7-12 years of age) who were enrolled in a summer treatment program completed two lab attention tasks (a continuous performance task and a self-paced choice discrimination task) and math seatwork. Analyses focused on relations between attention task parameters and math productivity. Individual differences in overall attention (OA) measures (averaged across time) accounted for 23% of the variance in math productivity, supporting the criterion validity of lab measures of attention. The criterion validity was enhanced by consideration of changes in AOT. Performance on all laboratory attention measures deteriorated as time-on-task increased, and individual differences in the decrement in AOT accounted for 40% of the variance in math productivity. The only variable to uniquely predict math productivity was from the self-paced choice discrimination task. This study suggests that attention tasks in the lab do predict a clinically-relevant target behavior in children with ADHD, supporting their use as a means to study attention processes in a controlled environment. Furthermore, this prediction is improved when attention is examined as a function of time-on-task and when the attentional demands are consistent between lab and life contexts.

  12. Neither Basic Life Support knowledge nor self-efficacy are predictive of skills among dental students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mac Giolla Phadraig, C; Ho, J D; Guerin, S; Yeoh, Y L; Mohamed Medhat, M; Doody, K; Hwang, S; Hania, M; Boggs, S; Nolan, A; Nunn, J

    2017-08-01

    Basic life support (BLS) is considered a core competence for the graduating dentist. This study aimed to measure BLS knowledge, self-efficacy and skills of undergraduate dental students in Dublin. This study consisted of a cross-sectional survey measuring BLS knowledge and self-efficacy, accompanied by a directly observed BLS skills assessment in a subsample of respondents. Data were collected in January 2014. Bivariate correlations between descriptive and outcome variables (knowledge, self-efficacy and skills) were tested using Pearson's chi-square. We included knowledge and self-efficacy as predictor variables, along with other variables showing association, into a binary logistic regression model with BLS skills as the outcome measure. One hundred and thirty-five students participated. Almost all (n = 133, 98.5%) participants had BLS training within the last 2 years. One hundred and four (77%) felt that they were capable of providing effective BLS (self-efficacy), whilst only 46 (34.1%) scored >80% of knowledge items correct. Amongst the skills (n = 85) subsample, 38.8% (n = 33) were found to pass the BLS skills assessment. Controlling for gender, age and skills assessor, the regression model did not identify a predictive relationship between knowledge or self-efficacy and BLS skills. Neither knowledge nor self-efficacy was predictive of BLS skills. Dental students had low levels of knowledge and skills in BLS. Despite this, their confidence in their ability to perform BLS was high and did not predict actual competence. There is a need for additional hands-on training, focusing on self-efficacy and BLS skills, particularly the use of AED. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Static Formation Temperature Prediction Based on Bottom Hole Temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changwei Liu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Static formation temperature (SFT is required to determine the thermophysical properties and production parameters in geothermal and oil reservoirs. However, it is not easy to determine SFT by both experimental and physical methods. In this paper, a mathematical approach to predicting SFT, based on a new model describing the relationship between bottom hole temperature (BHT and shut-in time, has been proposed. The unknown coefficients of the model were derived from the least squares fit by the particle swarm optimization (PSO algorithm. Additionally, the ability to predict SFT using a few BHT data points (such as the first three, four, or five points of a data set was evaluated. The accuracy of the proposed method to predict SFT was confirmed by a deviation percentage less than ±4% and a high regression coefficient R2 (>0.98. The proposed method could be used as a practical tool to predict SFT in both geothermal and oil wells.

  14. Prediction on carbon dioxide emissions based on fuzzy rules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pauzi, Herrini; Abdullah, Lazim

    2014-06-01

    There are several ways to predict air quality, varying from simple regression to models based on artificial intelligence. Most of the conventional methods are not sufficiently able to provide good forecasting performances due to the problems with non-linearity uncertainty and complexity of the data. Artificial intelligence techniques are successfully used in modeling air quality in order to cope with the problems. This paper describes fuzzy inference system (FIS) to predict CO2 emissions in Malaysia. Furthermore, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is used to compare the prediction performance. Data of five variables: energy use, gross domestic product per capita, population density, combustible renewable and waste and CO2 intensity are employed in this comparative study. The results from the two model proposed are compared and it is clearly shown that the ANFIS outperforms FIS in CO2 prediction.

  15. Methodology for predicting the life of waste-package materials, and components using multifactor accelerated life tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, R.E.; Cote, R.W.

    1983-09-01

    Accelerated life tests are essential for estimating the service life of waste-package materials and components. A recommended methodology for generating accelerated life tests is described in this report. The objective of the methodology is to define an accelerated life test program that is scientifically and statistically defensible. The methodology is carried out using a select team of scientists and usually requires 4 to 12 man-months of effort. Specific agendas for the successive meetings of the team are included in the report for use by the team manager. The agendas include assignments for the team scientists and a different set of assignments for the team statistician. The report also includes descriptions of factorial tables, hierarchical trees, and associated mathematical models that are proposed as technical tools to guide the efforts of the design team

  16. Drug-target interaction prediction from PSSM based evolutionary information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mousavian, Zaynab; Khakabimamaghani, Sahand; Kavousi, Kaveh; Masoudi-Nejad, Ali

    2016-01-01

    The labor-intensive and expensive experimental process of drug-target interaction prediction has motivated many researchers to focus on in silico prediction, which leads to the helpful information in supporting the experimental interaction data. Therefore, they have proposed several computational approaches for discovering new drug-target interactions. Several learning-based methods have been increasingly developed which can be categorized into two main groups: similarity-based and feature-based. In this paper, we firstly use the bi-gram features extracted from the Position Specific Scoring Matrix (PSSM) of proteins in predicting drug-target interactions. Our results demonstrate the high-confidence prediction ability of the Bigram-PSSM model in terms of several performance indicators specifically for enzymes and ion channels. Moreover, we investigate the impact of negative selection strategy on the performance of the prediction, which is not widely taken into account in the other relevant studies. This is important, as the number of non-interacting drug-target pairs are usually extremely large in comparison with the number of interacting ones in existing drug-target interaction data. An interesting observation is that different levels of performance reduction have been attained for four datasets when we change the sampling method from the random sampling to the balanced sampling. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. A model for a knowledge-based system's life cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiss, Peter A.

    1990-01-01

    The American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics has initiated a Committee on Standards for Artificial Intelligence. Presented here are the initial efforts of one of the working groups of that committee. The purpose here is to present a candidate model for the development life cycle of Knowledge Based Systems (KBS). The intent is for the model to be used by the Aerospace Community and eventually be evolved into a standard. The model is rooted in the evolutionary model, borrows from the spiral model, and is embedded in the standard Waterfall model for software development. Its intent is to satisfy the development of both stand-alone and embedded KBSs. The phases of the life cycle are detailed as are and the review points that constitute the key milestones throughout the development process. The applicability and strengths of the model are discussed along with areas needing further development and refinement by the aerospace community.

  18. Living Slow and Being Moral : Life History Predicts the Dual Process of Other-Centered Reasoning and Judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Nan; Hawk, Skyler T; Chang, Lei

    2018-06-01

    Drawing from the dual process model of morality and life history theory, the present research examined the role of cognitive and emotional processes as bridges between basic environmental challenges (i.e., unpredictability and competition) and other-centered moral orientation (i.e., prioritizing the welfare of others). In two survey studies, cognitive and emotional processes represented by future-oriented planning and emotional attachment, respectively (Study 1, N = 405), or by perspective taking and empathic concern, respectively (Study 2, N = 424), positively predicted other-centeredness in prosocial moral reasoning (Study 1) and moral judgment dilemmas based on rationality or intuition (Study 2). Cognitive processes were more closely related to rational aspects of other-centeredness, whereas the emotional processes were more closely related to the intuitive aspects of other-centeredness (Study 2). Finally, the cognitive and emotional processes also mediated negative effects of unpredictability (i.e., negative life events and childhood financial insecurity), as well as positive effects of individual-level, contest competition (i.e., educational and occupational competition) on other-centeredness. Overall, these findings support the view that cognitive and emotional processes do not necessarily contradict each other. Rather, they might work in concert to promote other-centeredness in various circumstances and might be attributed to humans' developmental flexibility in the face of environmental challenges.

  19. A Human Life-Stage Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Model for Chlorpyrifos: Development and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Jordan N.; Hinderliter, Paul M.; Timchalk, Charles; Bartels, M. J.; Poet, Torka S.

    2014-08-01

    Sensitivity to chemicals in animals and humans are known to vary with age. Age-related changes in sensitivity to chlorpyrifos have been reported in animal models. A life-stage physiologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) model was developed to computationally predict disposition of CPF and its metabolites, chlorpyrifos-oxon (the ultimate toxicant) and 3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinol (TCPy), as well as B-esterase inhibition by chlorpyrifos-oxon in humans. In this model, age-dependent body weight was calculated from a generalized Gompertz function, and compartments (liver, brain, fat, blood, diaphragm, rapid, and slow) were scaled based on body weight from polynomial functions on a fractional body weight basis. Blood flows among compartments were calculated as a constant flow per compartment volume. The life-stage PBPK/PD model was calibrated and tested against controlled adult human exposure studies. Model simulations suggest age-dependent pharmacokinetics and response may exist. At oral doses ≥ 0.55 mg/kg of chlorpyrifos (significantly higher than environmental exposure levels), 6 mo old children are predicted to have higher levels of chlorpyrifos-oxon in blood and higher levels of red blood cell cholinesterase inhibition compared to adults from equivalent oral doses of chlorpyrifos. At lower doses that are more relevant to environmental exposures, the model predicts that adults will have slightly higher levels of chlorpyrifos-oxon in blood and greater cholinesterase inhibition. This model provides a computational framework for age-comparative simulations that can be utilized to predict CPF disposition and biological response over various postnatal life-stages.

  20. Multi-Objective Predictive Balancing Control of Battery Packs Based on Predictive Current

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenbiao Li

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Various balancing topology and control methods have been proposed for the inconsistency problem of battery packs. However, these strategies only focus on a single objective, ignore the mutual interaction among various factors and are only based on the external performance of the battery pack inconsistency, such as voltage balancing and state of charge (SOC balancing. To solve these problems, multi-objective predictive balancing control (MOPBC based on predictive current is proposed in this paper, namely, in the driving process of an electric vehicle, using predictive control to predict the battery pack output current the next time. Based on this information, the impact of the battery pack temperature caused by the output current can be obtained. Then, the influence is added to the battery pack balancing control, which makes the present degradation, temperature, and SOC imbalance achieve balance automatically due to the change of the output current the next moment. According to MOPBC, the simulation model of the balancing circuit is built with four cells in Matlab/Simulink. The simulation results show that MOPBC is not only better than the other traditional balancing control strategies but also reduces the energy loss in the balancing process.

  1. Fracture mechanics based life assessment in petrochemical plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norasiah Ab Kasim; Abd Nassir Ibrahim; Ab Razak Hamzah; Shukri Mohd

    2004-01-01

    The increasing use of thick walled pressure vessels in petrochemical plants operating at high pressure under severe service conditions could lead to catastrophic failure. In the Malaysian Institute for Nuclear Technology Research (MINT), initial efforts are underway to apply fracture mechanics approach for assessment of significance of defects detected during periodic in service inspection (ISI) of industrial plants. This paper outlines the integrity management strategy based on fracture mechanics and proposes a new procedure for life assessment of petrochemical plants based on ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Section XI, BSI PD 6493:1991, BSI 6539:1994, BSI Standard 7910:1999 and API 579:2000. Essential relevant data required for the assessment is listed. Several methods available for determination of fracture toughness are reviewed with limitations in their application to petrochemical plants. A new non destructive method for determination of fracture toughness based on hardness testing and normalized key roughness curve is given. Results of fracture mechanics based life assessment conducted for 100 mm thick ammonia converter of Ni r o steel and 70 mm thick plat forming reactor vessel of ASTM A 38 7 grade B steel in operational fertilizer and petroleum refining plants are presented. (Author)

  2. Are Macro variables good predictors? A prediction based on the number of total medals acquired

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahram Shafiee

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A large amount of effort is spent on forecasting the outcome of sporting events. Moreover, there are large quantities of data regarding the outcomes of sporting events and the factors which are assumed to contribute to those outcomes. In this paper we tried to predict the success of nations at the Asian Games through macro-economic, political, social and cultural variables. we used the information of variables include urban population, Education Expenditures, Age Structure, GDP Real Growth Rate, GDP Per Capita, Unemployment Rate, Population, Inflation Average, current account balance, life expectancy at birth and Merchandise Trade for all of the participating countries in Asian Games from 1970 to 2006 in order to build the model and then this model was tested by the information of variables in 2010. The prediction is based on the number of total medals acquired each country. In this research we used WEKA software that is a popular suite of machine learning software written in Java. The value of correlation coefficient between the predicted and original ranks is 90.42%. Neural Network Model, between 28 countries mentioned, predicts their ranks according to the maximum difference between predicted and original ranks of 19 countries (67.85% is 3, the maximum difference between predicted and original ranks of 8 countries (28.57% is between 4 to 6 and the difference between predicted and original ranks of 1 countries (3.57% is more than 6.

  3. State-based Communication on Time-predictable Multicore Processors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Rasmus Bo; Schoeberl, Martin; Sparsø, Jens

    2016-01-01

    Some real-time systems use a form of task-to-task communication called state-based or sample-based communication that does not impose any flow control among the communicating tasks. The concept is similar to a shared variable, where a reader may read the same value multiple times or may not read...... a given value at all. This paper explores time-predictable implementations of state-based communication in network-on-chip based multicore platforms through five algorithms. With the presented analysis of the implemented algorithms, the communicating tasks of one core can be scheduled independently...... of tasks on other cores. Assuming a specific time-predictable multicore processor, we evaluate how the read and write primitives of the five algorithms contribute to the worst-case execution time of the communicating tasks. Each of the five algorithms has specific capabilities that make them suitable...

  4. Predicting footbridge vibrations using a probability-based approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Lars; Frier, Christian

    2017-01-01

    Vibrations in footbridges may be problematic as excessive vibrations may occur as a result of actions of pedestrians. Design-stage predictions of levels of footbridge vibration to the action of a pedestrian are useful and have been employed for many years based on a deterministic approach to mode...

  5. Snippet-based relevance predictions for federated web search

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Demeester, Thomas; Nguyen, Dong-Phuong; Trieschnigg, Rudolf Berend; Develder, Chris; Hiemstra, Djoerd

    How well can the relevance of a page be predicted, purely based on snippets? This would be highly useful in a Federated Web Search setting where caching large amounts of result snippets is more feasible than caching entire pages. The experiments reported in this paper make use of result snippets and

  6. A burnout prediction model based around char morphology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    T. Wu; E. Lester; M. Cloke [University of Nottingham, Nottingham (United Kingdom). Nottingham Energy and Fuel Centre

    2005-07-01

    Poor burnout in a coal-fired power plant has marked penalties in the form of reduced energy efficiency and elevated waste material that can not be utilized. The prediction of coal combustion behaviour in a furnace is of great significance in providing valuable information not only for process optimization but also for coal buyers in the international market. Coal combustion models have been developed that can make predictions about burnout behaviour and burnout potential. Most of these kinetic models require standard parameters such as volatile content, particle size and assumed char porosity in order to make a burnout prediction. This paper presents a new model called the Char Burnout Model (ChB) that also uses detailed information about char morphology in its prediction. The model can use data input from one of two sources. Both sources are derived from image analysis techniques. The first from individual analysis and characterization of real char types using an automated program. The second from predicted char types based on data collected during the automated image analysis of coal particles. Modelling results were compared with a different carbon burnout kinetic model and burnout data from re-firing the chars in a drop tube furnace operating at 1300{sup o}C, 5% oxygen across several residence times. An improved agreement between ChB model and DTF experimental data proved that the inclusion of char morphology in combustion models can improve model predictions. 27 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs.

  7. A burnout prediction model based around char morphology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tao Wu; Edward Lester; Michael Cloke [University of Nottingham, Nottingham (United Kingdom). School of Chemical, Environmental and Mining Engineering

    2006-05-15

    Several combustion models have been developed that can make predictions about coal burnout and burnout potential. Most of these kinetic models require standard parameters such as volatile content and particle size to make a burnout prediction. This article presents a new model called the char burnout (ChB) model, which also uses detailed information about char morphology in its prediction. The input data to the model is based on information derived from two different image analysis techniques. One technique generates characterization data from real char samples, and the other predicts char types based on characterization data from image analysis of coal particles. The pyrolyzed chars in this study were created in a drop tube furnace operating at 1300{sup o}C, 200 ms, and 1% oxygen. Modeling results were compared with a different carbon burnout kinetic model as well as the actual burnout data from refiring the same chars in a drop tube furnace operating at 1300{sup o}C, 5% oxygen, and residence times of 200, 400, and 600 ms. A good agreement between ChB model and experimental data indicates that the inclusion of char morphology in combustion models could well improve model predictions. 38 refs., 5 figs., 6 tabs.

  8. Blind Test of Physics-Based Prediction of Protein Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shell, M. Scott; Ozkan, S. Banu; Voelz, Vincent; Wu, Guohong Albert; Dill, Ken A.

    2009-01-01

    We report here a multiprotein blind test of a computer method to predict native protein structures based solely on an all-atom physics-based force field. We use the AMBER 96 potential function with an implicit (GB/SA) model of solvation, combined with replica-exchange molecular-dynamics simulations. Coarse conformational sampling is performed using the zipping and assembly method (ZAM), an approach that is designed to mimic the putative physical routes of protein folding. ZAM was applied to the folding of six proteins, from 76 to 112 monomers in length, in CASP7, a community-wide blind test of protein structure prediction. Because these predictions have about the same level of accuracy as typical bioinformatics methods, and do not utilize information from databases of known native structures, this work opens up the possibility of predicting the structures of membrane proteins, synthetic peptides, or other foldable polymers, for which there is little prior knowledge of native structures. This approach may also be useful for predicting physical protein folding routes, non-native conformations, and other physical properties from amino acid sequences. PMID:19186130

  9. Thermal Cycling Life Prediction of Sn-3.0Ag-0.5Cu Solder Joint Using Type-I Censored Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinhua Mi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Because solder joint interconnections are the weaknesses of microelectronic packaging, their reliability has great influence on the reliability of the entire packaging structure. Based on an accelerated life test the reliability assessment and life prediction of lead-free solder joints using Weibull distribution are investigated. The type-I interval censored lifetime data were collected from a thermal cycling test, which was implemented on microelectronic packaging with lead-free ball grid array (BGA and fine-pitch ball grid array (FBGA interconnection structures. The number of cycles to failure of lead-free solder joints is predicted by using a modified Engelmaier fatigue life model and a type-I censored data processing method. Then, the Pan model is employed to calculate the acceleration factor of this test. A comparison of life predictions between the proposed method and the ones calculated directly by Matlab and Minitab is conducted to demonstrate the practicability and effectiveness of the proposed method. At last, failure analysis and microstructure evolution of lead-free solders are carried out to provide useful guidance for the regular maintenance, replacement of substructure, and subsequent processing of electronic products.

  10. Microscopic Void Detection for Predicting Remaining Life in Electric Cable Insulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horvath, David A.; Avila, Steven M.

    2003-01-01

    A reliable method of testing for remaining life in electric cable insulation has continued to elude the nuclear industry as it seeks to extend the life and license of its nuclear stations. Until recently, a trendable, measurable electrical property has not been found, and unexpected cable failures continue to be reported. Most reliable approaches to date rely on monitoring mechanical properties, which are assumed to degrade faster than the insulation's electrical properties. This paper introduces a promising technique based on void characterization, which is dependent on an electrical property related to dielectric strength. A relationship between insulation void characteristics (size and density) and the onset of partial discharge is known to exist. A similar relationship can be shown between void characteristics and unacceptable leakage currents (another typical cable failure criterion). For low-voltage cables, it is believed void content can be correlated to mechanical property degradation.This paper will report on an approach for using void information, research results showing the existence of trendable void characteristics in commonly used electric insulation materials, and techniques for detecting the voids (both laboratory- and field-based techniques). Acoustical microscopy was found to be potentially more suitable than conventional ultrasound for nondestructive in situ detection and monitoring of void characteristics in jacketed multiconductor insulation while ignoring the jacket. Also, optical and scanning electron microscope techniques will play an essential role in establishing the database necessary for continued development and implementation of this promising technique

  11. EMD-Based Predictive Deep Belief Network for Time Series Prediction: An Application to Drought Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norbert A. Agana

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Drought is a stochastic natural feature that arises due to intense and persistent shortage of precipitation. Its impact is mostly manifested as agricultural and hydrological droughts following an initial meteorological phenomenon. Drought prediction is essential because it can aid in the preparedness and impact-related management of its effects. This study considers the drought forecasting problem by developing a hybrid predictive model using a denoised empirical mode decomposition (EMD and a deep belief network (DBN. The proposed method first decomposes the data into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs using EMD, and a reconstruction of the original data is obtained by considering only relevant IMFs. Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA was applied to each IMF to determine the threshold for robust denoising performance. Based on their scaling exponents, irrelevant intrinsic mode functions are identified and suppressed. The proposed method was applied to predict different time scale drought indices across the Colorado River basin using a standardized streamflow index (SSI as the drought index. The results obtained using the proposed method was compared with standard methods such as multilayer perceptron (MLP and support vector regression (SVR. The proposed hybrid model showed improvement in prediction accuracy, especially for multi-step ahead predictions.

  12. Review of time-dependent fatigue behavior and life prediction for 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Booker, M.K.; Majumdar, S.

    1982-01-01

    Available data on creep-fatigue life and fracture behavior of 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel are reviewed. Whereas creep-fatigue interaction is important for Type 304 stainless steel, oxidation effects appear to dominate the time-dependent fatigue behavior of 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel. Four of the currently available predictive methods - the Linear Damage Rule, Frequency Separation Equation, Strain Range Partitioning Equation, and Damage Rate Equation - are evaluated for their predictive capability. Variations in the parameters for the various predictive methods with temperature, heat of material, heat treatment, and environment are investigated. Relative trends in the lives predicted by the various methods as functions of test duration, waveshape, etc., are discussed. The predictive methods will need modification in order to account for oxidation and aging effects in the 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel. Future tests that will emphasize the difference between the various predictive methods are proposed

  13. Connecting clinical and actuarial prediction with rule-based methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fokkema, Marjolein; Smits, Niels; Kelderman, Henk; Penninx, Brenda W J H

    2015-06-01

    Meta-analyses comparing the accuracy of clinical versus actuarial prediction have shown actuarial methods to outperform clinical methods, on average. However, actuarial methods are still not widely used in clinical practice, and there has been a call for the development of actuarial prediction methods for clinical practice. We argue that rule-based methods may be more useful than the linear main effect models usually employed in prediction studies, from a data and decision analytic as well as a practical perspective. In addition, decision rules derived with rule-based methods can be represented as fast and frugal trees, which, unlike main effects models, can be used in a sequential fashion, reducing the number of cues that have to be evaluated before making a prediction. We illustrate the usability of rule-based methods by applying RuleFit, an algorithm for deriving decision rules for classification and regression problems, to a dataset on prediction of the course of depressive and anxiety disorders from Penninx et al. (2011). The RuleFit algorithm provided a model consisting of 2 simple decision rules, requiring evaluation of only 2 to 4 cues. Predictive accuracy of the 2-rule model was very similar to that of a logistic regression model incorporating 20 predictor variables, originally applied to the dataset. In addition, the 2-rule model required, on average, evaluation of only 3 cues. Therefore, the RuleFit algorithm appears to be a promising method for creating decision tools that are less time consuming and easier to apply in psychological practice, and with accuracy comparable to traditional actuarial methods. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Physician consensus on preventability and predictability of readmissions based on standard case scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Galen, L. S.; Cooksley, T; Merten, H

    2016-01-01

    Background: Policy makers struggle with unplanned readmissions as a quality indicator since integrating preventability in such indicators is difficult. Most studies on the preventability of readmissions questioned physicians whether they consider a given readmission to be preventable, from which...... conclusions on factors predicting preventable readmissions were derived. There is no literature on the interobserver agreement of physician judgement. Aim: To assess the degree of agreement among physicians regarding predictability and preventability of medical readmissions. Design: An online survey based...... on eight real-life case scenarios was distributed to European physicians. Methods: Physicians were requested to rate from the first four (index admission) scenarios whether they expected these patients to be readmitted within 30 days (the predictability). The remaining four cases, describing a readmission...

  15. Prediction of Banking Systemic Risk Based on Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shouwei Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Banking systemic risk is a complex nonlinear phenomenon and has shed light on the importance of safeguarding financial stability by recent financial crisis. According to the complex nonlinear characteristics of banking systemic risk, in this paper we apply support vector machine (SVM to the prediction of banking systemic risk in an attempt to suggest a new model with better explanatory power and stability. We conduct a case study of an SVM-based prediction model for Chinese banking systemic risk and find the experiment results showing that support vector machine is an efficient method in such case.

  16. Prediction-Based Control for Nonlinear Systems with Input Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Estrada-Sánchez

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This work has two primary objectives. First, it presents a state prediction strategy for a class of nonlinear Lipschitz systems subject to constant time delay in the input signal. As a result of a suitable change of variable, the state predictor asymptotically provides the value of the state τ units of time ahead. Second, it proposes a solution to the stabilization and trajectory tracking problems for the considered class of systems using predicted states. The predictor-controller convergence is proved by considering a complete Lyapunov functional. The proposed predictor-based controller strategy is evaluated using numerical simulations.

  17. Validating the predictions of case-based decision theory

    OpenAIRE

    Radoc, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Real-life decision-makers typically do not know all possible outcomes arising from alternative courses of action. Instead, when people face a problem, they may rely on the recollection of their past personal experience: the situation, the action taken, and the accompanying consequence. In addition, the applicability of a past experience in decision-making may depend on how similar the current problem is to situations encountered previously. Case-based decision theory (CBDT), proposed by Itzha...

  18. Predicting quality of life and self-management from dyadic support and overprotection after myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joekes, Katherine; Maes, Stan; Warrens, Matthijs

    2007-11-01

    Using a self-regulatory framework, this study aims to identify how couples perceive a partner's support style after myocardial infarction (MI), and whether this predicts the patient's health-related quality of life (HR-QoL) and self-management (S-M) 9 months later. This longitudinal dyadic study includes 73 couples (86% of patients were men), recruited from two cardiac rehabilitation programmes in the Netherlands. Mean age of patients was 54.8 (SD=9.6) and of partners 52.5 (SD=9.8). Participants were interviewed and completed questionnaires at baseline (T1). Repeat questionnaires were returned by 69 and 67 couples after 3 (T2) and 9 months (T3), respectively. Support by partners is conceptualized in this study as 'active engagement' (AE), which involves the extent to which a partner engages the patient in conversations which focus on emotional support and problem solving. Levels of AE do not change over time, nor do they differ between members of the dyad. Levels of overprotection (OP) diminish with time, whilst patients consistently perceive more OP than partners report providing. Patients' experience of goal hindrance (at T3) due to the MI is associated with a decreased HR-QoL at T3 (controlling for baseline measures). The perception of having a supportive (AE) partner at T1 contributes to enhanced patient HR-QoL at each subsequent time point, although not to physical functioning. Perceiving a partner as overprotective (at T1) predicts worsened physical functioning in patients (at T3). Improvements in S-M at T3 (controlling for baseline measures) are reported by patients whose partner displays active engagement at T1. Cardiac rehabilitation should aim to redress the experience of goal disturbance and advise partners on how to provide support.

  19. Rate-Based Model Predictive Control of Turbofan Engine Clearance

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeCastro, Jonathan A.

    2006-01-01

    An innovative model predictive control strategy is developed for control of nonlinear aircraft propulsion systems and sub-systems. At the heart of the controller is a rate-based linear parameter-varying model that propagates the state derivatives across the prediction horizon, extending prediction fidelity to transient regimes where conventional models begin to lose validity. The new control law is applied to a demanding active clearance control application, where the objectives are to tightly regulate blade tip clearances and also anticipate and avoid detrimental blade-shroud rub occurrences by optimally maintaining a predefined minimum clearance. Simulation results verify that the rate-based controller is capable of satisfying the objectives during realistic flight scenarios where both a conventional Jacobian-based model predictive control law and an unconstrained linear-quadratic optimal controller are incapable of doing so. The controller is evaluated using a variety of different actuators, illustrating the efficacy and versatility of the control approach. It is concluded that the new strategy has promise for this and other nonlinear aerospace applications that place high importance on the attainment of control objectives during transient regimes.

  20. Implementation of neural network based non-linear predictive control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Paul Haase; Nørgård, Peter Magnus; Ravn, Ole

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes a control method for non-linear systems based on generalized predictive control. Generalized predictive control (GPC) was developed to control linear systems, including open-loop unstable and non-minimum phase systems, but has also been proposed to be extended for the control...... of non-linear systems. GPC is model based and in this paper we propose the use of a neural network for the modeling of the system. Based on the neural network model, a controller with extended control horizon is developed and the implementation issues are discussed, with particular emphasis...... on an efficient quasi-Newton algorithm. The performance is demonstrated on a pneumatic servo system....