WorldWideScience

Sample records for based future analysis

  1. GIS based analysis of future district heating potential in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steffen; Möller, Bernd

    2013-01-01

    in Denmark have been mapped in a heat atlas which includes all buildings and their heat demands. This article focuses on developing a method for assessing the costs associated with supplying these buildings with DH. The analysis is based on the existing DH areas in Denmark. By finding the heat production...

  2. Future-based Static Analysis of Message Passing Programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wytse Oortwijn

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Message passing is widely used in industry to develop programs consisting of several distributed communicating components. Developing functionally correct message passing software is very challenging due to the concurrent nature of message exchanges. Nonetheless, many safety-critical applications rely on the message passing paradigm, including air traffic control systems and emergency services, which makes proving their correctness crucial. We focus on the modular verification of MPI programs by statically verifying concrete Java code. We use separation logic to reason about local correctness and define abstractions of the communication protocol in the process algebra used by mCRL2. We call these abstractions futures as they predict how components will interact during program execution. We establish a provable link between futures and program code and analyse the abstract futures via model checking to prove global correctness. Finally, we verify a leader election protocol to demonstrate our approach.

  3. GIS Based Analysis of future district heating potential in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steffen; Möller, Bernd

    2012-01-01

    and their heat demand has in recent years been assessed in a heat atlas including all buildings in Denmark. The focus in this article is to further develop a method for assessing the costs associated with supplying these buildings with DH. The analysis takes departure in the existing DH areas in Denmark...

  4. Modelling requirements for future assessments based on FEP analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Locke, J.; Bailey, L.

    1998-01-01

    This report forms part of a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed safety assessment. A scenario approach to performance assessment has been adopted. It is proposed that potential evolutions of a deep geological radioactive waste repository can be represented by a base scenario and a number of variant scenarios. The base scenario is chosen to be broad-ranging and to represent the natural evolution of the repository system and its surrounding environment. The base scenario is defined to include all those FEPs that are certain to occur and those which are judged likely to occur for a significant period of the assessment timescale. The structuring of FEPs on a Master Directed Diagram (MDD) provides a systematic framework for identifying those FEPs that form part of the natural evolution of the system and those, which may define alternative potential evolutions of the repository system. In order to construct a description of the base scenario, FEPs have been grouped into a series of conceptual models. Conceptual models are groups of FEPs, identified from the MDD, representing a specific component or process within the disposal system. It has been found appropriate to define conceptual models in terms of the three main components of the disposal system: the repository engineered system, the surrounding geosphere and the biosphere. For each of these components, conceptual models provide a description of the relevant subsystem in terms of its initial characteristics, subsequent evolution and the processes affecting radionuclide transport for the groundwater and gas pathways. The aim of this document is to present the methodology that has been developed for deriving modelling requirements and to illustrate the application of the methodology by

  5. FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    R.M. Forester

    2000-01-01

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog

  6. FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R.M. Forester

    2000-03-14

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog.

  7. Future Climate Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James Houseworth

    2001-01-01

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure 1), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Revision 00 of this AMR was prepared in accordance with the ''Work Direction and Planning Document for Future Climate Analysis'' (Peterman 1999) under Interagency Agreement DE-AI08-97NV12033 with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The planning document for the technical scope, content, and management of ICN 01 of this AMR is the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (BSC 2001a). The scope for the TBV resolution actions in this ICN is described in the ''Technical Work Plan for: Integrated Management of Technical Product Input Department''. (BSC 2001b, Addendum B

  8. Future Climate Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cambell, C. G.

    2004-01-01

    This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Other alternative

  9. Future Climate Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    C. G. Cambell

    2004-09-03

    This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past

  10. Historical and future drought in Bangladesh using copula-based bivariate regional frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortuza, Md Rubayet; Moges, Edom; Demissie, Yonas; Li, Hong-Yi

    2018-02-01

    The study aims at regional and probabilistic evaluation of bivariate drought characteristics to assess both the past and future drought duration and severity in Bangladesh. The procedures involve applying (1) standardized precipitation index to identify drought duration and severity, (2) regional frequency analysis to determine the appropriate marginal distributions for both duration and severity, (3) copula model to estimate the joint probability distribution of drought duration and severity, and (4) precipitation projections from multiple climate models to assess future drought trends. Since drought duration and severity in Bangladesh are often strongly correlated and do not follow same marginal distributions, the joint and conditional return periods of droughts are characterized using the copula-based joint distribution. The country is divided into three homogeneous regions using Fuzzy clustering and multivariate discordancy and homogeneity measures. For given severity and duration values, the joint return periods for a drought to exceed both values are on average 45% larger, while to exceed either value are 40% less than the return periods from the univariate frequency analysis, which treats drought duration and severity independently. These suggest that compared to the bivariate drought frequency analysis, the standard univariate frequency analysis under/overestimate the frequency and severity of droughts depending on how their duration and severity are related. Overall, more frequent and severe droughts are observed in the west side of the country. Future drought trend based on four climate models and two scenarios showed the possibility of less frequent drought in the future (2020-2100) than in the past (1961-2010).

  11. Future Climate Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    James Houseworth

    2001-10-12

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure 1), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Revision 00 of this AMR was prepared in accordance with the ''Work Direction and Planning Document for Future Climate Analysis'' (Peterman 1999) under Interagency Agreement DE-AI08-97NV12033 with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The planning document for the technical scope, content, and management of ICN 01 of this AMR is the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (BSC 2001a). The scope for the TBV resolution actions in this ICN is described in the ''Technical Work Plan for: Integrated Management of Technical

  12. RCP8.5-Based Future Flood Hazard Analysis for the Lower Mekong River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edangodage Duminda Pradeep Perera

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Climatic variations caused by the excessive emission of greenhouse gases are likely to change the patterns of precipitation, runoff processes, and water storage of river basins. Various studies have been conducted based on precipitation outputs of the global scale climatic models under different emission scenarios. However, there is a limitation in regional- and local-scale hydrological analysis on extreme floods with the combined application of high-resolution atmospheric general circulation models’ (AGCM outputs and physically-based hydrological models (PBHM. This study has taken an effort to overcome that limitation in hydrological analysis. The present and future precipitation, river runoff, and inundation distributions for the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB were analyzed to understand hydrological changes in the LMB under the RCP8.5 scenario. The downstream area beyond the Kratie gauging station, located in the Cambodia and Vietnam flood plains was considered as the LMB in this study. The bias-corrected precipitation outputs of the Japan Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM3.2S with 20 km horizontal resolution were utilized as the precipitation inputs for basin-scale hydrological simulations. The present climate (1979–2003 was represented by the AMIP-type simulations while the future (2075–2099 climatic conditions were obtained based on the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenario. The entire hydrological system of the Mekong basin was modelled by the block-wise TOPMODEL (BTOP hydrological model with 20 km resolution, while the LMB area was modelled by the rainfall-runoff-inundation (RRI model with 2 km resolution, specifically to analyze floods under the aforementioned climatic conditions. The comparison of present and future river runoffs, inundation distributions and inundation volume changes were the outcomes of the study, which can be supportive information for the LMB flood management, water policy

  13. The Smartphone-Based Offline Indoor Location Competition at IPIN 2016: Analysis and Future Work

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joaquín Torres-Sospedra

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the analysis and discussion of the off-site localization competition track, which took place during the Seventh International Conference on Indoor Positioning and Indoor Navigation (IPIN 2016. Five international teams proposed different strategies for smartphone-based indoor positioning using the same reference data. The competitors were provided with several smartphone-collected signal datasets, some of which were used for training (known trajectories, and others for evaluating (unknown trajectories. The competition permits a coherent evaluation method of the competitors’ estimations, where inside information to fine-tune their systems is not offered, and thus provides, in our opinion, a good starting point to introduce a fair comparison between the smartphone-based systems found in the literature. The methodology, experience, feedback from competitors and future working lines are described.

  14. Planning future studies based on the conditional power of a meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roloff, Verena; Higgins, Julian PT; Sutton, Alex J

    2013-01-01

    Systematic reviews often provide recommendations for further research. When meta-analyses are inconclusive, such recommendations typically argue for further studies to be conducted. However, the nature and amount of future research should depend on the nature and amount of the existing research. We propose a method based on conditional power to make these recommendations more specific. Assuming a random-effects meta-analysis model, we evaluate the influence of the number of additional studies, of their information sizes and of the heterogeneity anticipated among them on the ability of an updated meta-analysis to detect a prespecified effect size. The conditional powers of possible design alternatives can be summarized in a simple graph which can also be the basis for decision making. We use three examples from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews to demonstrate our strategy. We demonstrate that if heterogeneity is anticipated, it might not be possible for a single study to reach the desirable power no matter how large it is. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:22786670

  15. The bacterial rhizobiome of hyperaccumulators: future perspectives based on omics analysis and advanced microscopy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanna eVisioli

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Hyperaccumulators are plants that can extract heavy metal ions from the soil and translocate those ions to the shoots, where they are sequestered and detoxified. Hyperaccumulation depends not only on the availability of mobilized metal ions in the soil, but also on the enhanced activity of metal transporters and metal chelators which may be provided by the plant or its associated microbes. The rhizobiome is captured by plant root exudates from the complex microbial community in the soil, and may colonize the root surface or infiltrate the root cortex. This community can increase the root surface area by inducing hairy root proliferation. It may also increase the solubility of metals in the rhizosphere and promote the uptake of soluble metals by the plant. The bacterial rhizobiome, a subset of specialized microorganisms that colonize the plant rhizosphere and endosphere, makes an important contribution to the hyperaccumulator phenotype. In this review, we discuss classic and more recent tools that are used to study the interactions between hyperaccumulators and the bacterial rhizobiome, and consider future perspectives based on the use of omics analysis and microscopy to study plant metabolism in the context of metal accumulation. Recent data suggest that metal-resistant bacteria isolated from the hyperaccumulator rhizosphere and endosphere could be useful in applications such as phytoextraction and phytoremediation, although more research is required to determine whether such properties can be transferred successfully to non-accumulator species.

  16. Indicator based sustainability analysis of future energy situation of Santiago de Chile

    OpenAIRE

    Stelzer, Volker; Quintero, Adriana; Vargas, Luis; Paredes, Gonzalo; Simon, Sonja; Nienhaus, Kristina; Kopfmüller, Jürgen

    2014-01-01

    Up to now, the Chilean Energy system has fulfilled the energy needs of Santiago de Chile considerably well. However, development trends of the current system impose significant future risks on the energy system. A detailed sustainability analysis of the energy sector of the Metropolitan Region of Santiago de Chile was conducted, using selected energy indicators and a distance-to-target approach. Risks for the sustainable development of the energy sector are detected, such...

  17. Projecting the Future for Design Science Research: An Action‐Case Based Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baskerville, Richard; Pries-Heje, Jan

    2015-01-01

    and theories appears to be a key challenge. In this paper we commence with a DESRIST paper from 2012 that instantiated design principles in an artifact for a bank. That paper included plans and techniques for future use of its principles (propagation), including prescriptions for a five-phase adoption process...... or theories have stimulated many actual projections. We demonstrate these concepts in a case study of propagation: a chemical manufacturer and service provider that adopted the design principles arising from that 2012 DESRIST banking-based design science research. We conclude that generalizability is too well...

  18. Present state and future of CFD based on three-dimensional RANS analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kwang Yong

    2004-01-01

    Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) based on Navier-Stokes equations has been developed rapidly for several decades with the developments of high speed computers and numerical algorithms, and presently is regarded as an essential analysis tool in the engineering applications containing fluid flow and convective heat transfer. It is known that for turbulent flow the Navier-Stokes equations can be calculated precisely by Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS). However, DNS needs huge computing time even for simple low-Reynolds number flows, and thus is not practical. Large Eddy Simulation (LES) can be an alternative. But, LES also needs considerable computing time for the analysis of engineering flows, and have some problem in the methods. Therefore, the analysis methods using Reynolds-averaged Navier-stokes equations (RANS) and turbulence closure models are still regarded as the major techniques for the analysis of turbulent flows in spite of the inaccuracy of the prediction. In this presentation, the present state and the prospect of CFD based on three-dimensional RANS analysis are introduced for physical models and numerical algorithms with the engineering examples. Especially, for the analysis of two-phase flows in nuclear reactor, the recently developed techniques are also introduced. And, the presentation includes the methods of design optimization using RANS analysis and numerical optimization techniques with variety of the applications

  19. Multifractal features of EUA and CER futures markets by using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis based on empirical model decomposition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao, Guangxi; Xu, Wei

    2016-01-01

    Basing on daily price data of carbon emission rights in futures markets of Certified Emission Reduction (CER) and European Union Allowances (EUA), we analyze the multiscale characteristics of the markets by using empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) based on EMD. The complexity of the daily returns of CER and EUA futures markets changes with multiple time scales and multilayered features. The two markets also exhibit clear multifractal characteristics and long-range correlation. We employ shuffle and surrogate approaches to analyze the origins of multifractality. The long-range correlations and fat-tail distributions significantly contribute to multifractality. Furthermore, we analyze the influence of high returns on multifractality by using threshold method. The multifractality of the two futures markets is related to the presence of high values of returns in the price series.

  20. Physics-Based Aeroelastic Analysis for Future Air Vehicle Concepts Using a Fully Nonlinear Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Strganac, Thomas W

    2007-01-01

    Future air vehicles will be highly flexible and will include deformable sub-systems resulting in new physical interactions between a vehicle's structure, the surrounding flowfleld, and the dynamics...

  1. Laser Therapy and Dementia: A Database Analysis and Future Aspects on LED-Based Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Litscher

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Mainly because of the movement in the age pyramid, one can assume that the incidence of Alzheimer’s disease or dementia in general will increase in the coming decades. This paper employs a database analysis to examine the profile of publication activity related to this topic. Two databases were searched: PubMed and Cochrane Library. About 600 papers related to the research area “dementia and laser” and about 450 papers related to the search terms “Alzheimer and laser” were found in these two most commonly used databases. Ten plus one papers are described in detail and are discussed in the context of the laser research performed at the Medical University of Graz. First results concerning the measurement of the transmission factor (TF through the human skull of a new LED- (light emitting diode- based system are presented (TF = 0.0434 ± 0.0104 (SD. The measurements show that this LED system (using the QIT (quantum optical induced transparency effect might be used in the treatment of dementia.

  2. Vaccination strategies for future influenza pandemics: a severity-based cost effectiveness analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelso, Joel K; Halder, Nilimesh; Milne, George J

    2013-02-11

    A critical issue in planning pandemic influenza mitigation strategies is the delay between the arrival of the pandemic in a community and the availability of an effective vaccine. The likely scenario, born out in the 2009 pandemic, is that a newly emerged influenza pandemic will have spread to most parts of the world before a vaccine matched to the pandemic strain is produced. For a severe pandemic, additional rapidly activated intervention measures will be required if high mortality rates are to be avoided. A simulation modelling study was conducted to examine the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of plausible combinations of social distancing, antiviral and vaccination interventions, assuming a delay of 6-months between arrival of an influenza pandemic and first availability of a vaccine. Three different pandemic scenarios were examined; mild, moderate and extreme, based on estimates of transmissibility and pathogenicity of the 2009, 1957 and 1918 influenza pandemics respectively. A range of different durations of social distancing were examined, and the sensitivity of the results to variation in the vaccination delay, ranging from 2 to 6 months, was analysed. Vaccination-only strategies were not cost effective for any pandemic scenario, saving few lives and incurring substantial vaccination costs. Vaccination coupled with long duration social distancing, antiviral treatment and antiviral prophylaxis was cost effective for moderate pandemics and extreme pandemics, where it saved lives while simultaneously reducing the total pandemic cost. Combined social distancing and antiviral interventions without vaccination were significantly less effective, since without vaccination a resurgence in case numbers occurred as soon as social distancing interventions were relaxed. When social distancing interventions were continued until at least the start of the vaccination campaign, attack rates and total costs were significantly lower, and increased rates of vaccination

  3. The future of copper in China--A perspective based on analysis of copper flows and stocks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Cai, Zhijian; Yang, Jiameng; Yuan, Zengwei; Chen, Yan

    2015-12-01

    This study attempts to speculate on the future of copper metabolism in China based on dynamic substance flow analysis. Based on tremendous growth of copper consumption over the past 63 years, China will depict a substantially increasing trend of copper in-use stocks for the next 30 years. The highest peak will be possibly achieved in 2050, with the maximum ranging between 163 Mt and 171 Mt. After that, total stocks are expected to slowly decline 147-154 Mt by the year 2080. Owing to the increasing demand of in-use stocks, China will continue to have a profound impact on global copper consumption with its high import dependence until around 2020, and the peak demand for imported copper are expected to approach 5.5 Mt/year. Thereafter, old scrap generated by domestic society will occupy an increasingly important role in copper supply. In around 2060, approximately 80% of copper resources could come from domestic recycling of old scrap, implying a major shift from primary production to secondary production. With regard to the effect of lifetime distribution uncertainties in different end-use sectors of copper stocks on the predict results, uncertainty evaluation was performed and found the model was relatively robust to these changes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Predictive Technology Management for the Identification of Future Development Trends and the Maximum Achievable Potential Based on a Quantitative Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Fries

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A company’s ability to find the most profitable technology is based on a precise forecast of achievement potential. Technology Management (TM uses forecasting models to analyse future potentials, e.g. the Gartner Hype Cycle, Arthur D. Little’s technology lifecycle or McKinsey’s S-curve model. All these methods are useful for qualitative analysis in the planning of strategic research and development (R&D expenses. In a new approach, exponential and logistic growth functions are used to identify and quantify characteristic stages of technology development. Innovations from electrical, mechanical and computer engineering are observed and projected until the year 2025. Datasets from different industry sectors are analysed, as the number of active Facebook users worldwide, the tensile yield point of flat bar steel, the number of transistors per unit area on integrated circuits, the fuel efficiency per dimension of passenger cars, and the energy density of Lithium-Ion cells. Results show the period of performance doubling and the forecast for the end of the technological achievement potential. The methodology can help to answer key entrepreneurial questions such as the search for alternatives to applied technologies, as well as identifying the risk of substitution technology.

  5. The Future of the Global Environment: A Model-based Analysis Supporting UNEP's First Global Environment Outlook

    OpenAIRE

    Bakkes JA; Woerden JW van; Alcamo J; Berk MM; Bol P; Born GJ van den; Brink BJE ten; Hettelingh JP; Langeweg F; Niessen LW; Swart RJ; United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi, Kenia; MNV

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the scenario analysis in UNEP's first Global Environment Outlook, published at the same time as the scenario analysis. This Outlook provides a pilot assessment of developments in the environment, both global and regional, between now and 2015, with a further projection to 2050. The study was carried out in support of the Agenda 21 interim evaluation, five years after 'Rio' and ten years after 'Brundtland'. The scenario analysis is based on only one scenario, Conventional...

  6. Predictability of the future development of aggressive behavior of cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas based on decision tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satomi, Junichiro; Ghaibeh, A Ammar; Moriguchi, Hiroki; Nagahiro, Shinji

    2015-07-01

    The severity of clinical signs and symptoms of cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas (DAVFs) are well correlated with their pattern of venous drainage. Although the presence of cortical venous drainage can be considered a potential predictor of aggressive DAVF behaviors, such as intracranial hemorrhage or progressive neurological deficits due to venous congestion, accurate statistical analyses are currently not available. Using a decision tree data mining method, the authors aimed at clarifying the predictability of the future development of aggressive behaviors of DAVF and at identifying the main causative factors. Of 266 DAVF patients, 89 were eligible for analysis. Under observational management, 51 patients presented with intracranial hemorrhage/infarction during the follow-up period. The authors created a decision tree able to assess the risk for the development of aggressive DAVF behavior. Evaluated by 10-fold cross-validation, the decision tree's accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were 85.28%, 88.33%, and 80.83%, respectively. The tree shows that the main factor in symptomatic patients was the presence of cortical venous drainage. In its absence, the lesion location determined the risk of a DAVF developing aggressive behavior. Decision tree analysis accurately predicts the future development of aggressive DAVF behavior.

  7. The environmental performance of current and future passenger vehicles: Life cycle assessment based on a novel scenario analysis framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauer, Christian; Hofer, Johannes; Althaus, Hans-Jörg; Del Duce, Andrea; Simons, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We perform Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of current and future passenger vehicles. • We include gasoline, diesel and natural gas as well as battery and fuel cell cars. • An integrated vehicle simulation framework guarantees consistency. • Only electric cars with “clean” electricity and H_2 allow for pollution mitigation. • Complete LCA is mandatory for environmental evaluation of vehicle technologies. - Abstract: This paper contains an evaluation of the environmental performance of a comprehensive set of current and future mid-size passenger vehicles. We present a comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) based on a novel integrated vehicle simulation framework, which allows for consistency in vehicle parameter settings and consideration of future technological progress. Conventional and hybrid gasoline, diesel and natural gas cars as well as battery and fuel cell electric vehicles (BEV and FCV) are analyzed, taking into account electricity and hydrogen production chains from fossil, nuclear and renewable energy resources. Our results show that a substantial mitigation of climate change can be obtained with electric passenger vehicles, provided that non-fossil energy resources are used for electricity and hydrogen production. However, in terms of other environmental burdens such as acidification, particulate matter formation, and toxicity, BEV may in some cases and FCV are likely to perform worse than modern fossil fueled cars as a consequence of emissions along vehicle and fuel production chains. Therefore, the electrification of road transportation should be accompanied by an integration of life cycle management in vehicle manufacturing chains as well as energy and transport policies in order to counter potential environmental drawbacks.

  8. A scenario analysis of future energy systems based on an energy flow model represented as functionals of technology options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kikuchi, Yasunori; Kimura, Seiichiro; Okamoto, Yoshitaka; Koyama, Michihisa

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Energy flow model was represented as the functionals of technology options. • Relationships among available technologies can be visualized by developed model. • Technology roadmapping can be incorporated into the model as technical scenario. • Combination of technologies can increase their contribution to the environment. - Abstract: The design of energy systems has become an issue all over the world. A single optimal system cannot be suggested because the availability of infrastructure and resources and the acceptability of the system should be discussed locally, involving all related stakeholders in the energy system. In particular, researchers and engineers of technologies related to energy systems should be able to perform the forecasting and roadmapping of future energy systems and indicate quantitative results of scenario analyses. We report an energy flow model developed for analysing scenarios of future Japanese energy systems implementing a variety of feasible technology options. The model was modularized and represented as functionals of appropriate technology options, which enables the aggregation and disaggregation of energy systems by defining functionals for single technologies, packages integrating multi-technologies, and mini-systems such as regions implementing industrial symbiosis. Based on the model, the combinations of technologies on both energy supply and demand sides can be addressed considering not only the societal scenarios such as resource prices, economic growth and population change but also the technical scenarios including the development and penetration of energy-related technologies such as distributed solid oxide fuel cells in residential sectors and new-generation vehicles, and the replacement and shift of current technologies such as heat pumps for air conditioning and centralized power generation. The developed model consists of two main modules; namely, a power generation dispatching module for the

  9. Field-based detection of biological samples for forensic analysis: Established techniques, novel tools, and future innovations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Jack; Watts, Giles; Hobbs, Glyn; Dawnay, Nick

    2018-04-01

    Field based forensic tests commonly provide information on the presence and identity of biological stains and can also support the identification of species. Such information can support downstream processing of forensic samples and generate rapid intelligence. These approaches have traditionally used chemical and immunological techniques to elicit the result but some are known to suffer from a lack of specificity and sensitivity. The last 10 years has seen the development of field-based genetic profiling systems, with specific focus on moving the mainstay of forensic genetic analysis, namely STR profiling, out of the laboratory and into the hands of the non-laboratory user. In doing so it is now possible for enforcement officers to generate a crime scene DNA profile which can then be matched to a reference or database profile. The introduction of these novel genetic platforms also allows for further development of new molecular assays aimed at answering the more traditional questions relating to body fluid identity and species detection. The current drive for field-based molecular tools is in response to the needs of the criminal justice system and enforcement agencies, and promises a step-change in how forensic evidence is processed. However, the adoption of such systems by the law enforcement community does not represent a new strategy in the way forensic science has integrated previous novel approaches. Nor do they automatically represent a threat to the quality control and assurance practices that are central to the field. This review examines the historical need and subsequent research and developmental breakthroughs in field-based forensic analysis over the past two decades with particular focus on genetic methods Emerging technologies from a range of scientific fields that have potential applications in forensic analysis at the crime scene are identified and associated issues that arise from the shift from laboratory into operational field use are discussed

  10. Enabling the Analysis of Emergent Behavior in Future Electrical Distribution Systems Using Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonja Kolen

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In future electrical distribution systems, component heterogeneity and their cyber-physical interactions through electrical lines and communication lead to emergent system behavior. As the distribution systems represent the largest part of an energy system with respect to the number of nodes and components, large-scale studies of their emergent behavior are vital for the development of decentralized control strategies. This paper presents and evaluates DistAIX, a novel agent-based modeling and simulation tool to conduct such studies. The major novelty is a parallelization of the entire model—including the power system, communication system, control, and all interactions—using processes instead of threads. Thereby, a distribution of the simulation to multiple computing nodes with a distributed memory architecture becomes possible. This makes DistAIX scalable and allows the inclusion of as many processing units in the simulation as desired. The scalability of DistAIX is demonstrated by simulations of large-scale scenarios. Additionally, the capability of observing emergent behavior is demonstrated for an exemplary distribution grid with a large number of interacting components.

  11. Future indoor light and associated energy consumption based on professionals' visions: A practice- and network-oriented analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Franceschini, Simone; Borup, Mads; Rosales-Carreón, Jesús

    2018-01-01

    Through the insight and visions of Danish lighting experts, this manuscript investigates relationships between future lighting technologies and practices and the expected impacts on energy and lighting consumption. The light-emitting diode (LED) will be the dominant technology of the future smart...... light systems. Though, energy efficiency is expected to improve, new market players will appear and new lighting opportunites will be exploited that, in turn, will increase the demand for light. A rebound effect is expected. The overall impact on the future consumption of energy is uncertain, so we...

  12. Ecology, Economy and security of supply of the Dutch Electricity Supply System. A scenario based future analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roedel, J.G.

    2008-01-01

    The Dutch electricity sector has been transformed into a liberalized international energy market. Market players are free to choose from various electricity generation options when replacing or expanding production capacity. However, choices that are made now will influence emissions (ecology), integral costs (economy) and availability (security of supply) for the next 25 - 40 years. This thesis shows if and how, based on the current electricity supply system, an optimal balance of ecology, economy and security of supply can be achieved. First, the current electricity supply system is described to create a frame of reference. Then, future technological developments are described for electricity production options. Four potential scenarios are constructed featuring various uncertainties: the globalising versus the local economy; priority versus subordination for the environment; and the security/insecurity of the fuel supply. These four scenarios are worked out with a specially developed techno-economic simulation model; the results are analysed in terms of ecology, economy and security of supply. The findings indicate that it is impossible to arrive at an optimal balance for the defined scenarios. Scenarios with a low environmental impact lead to high integral costs and vice versa. However, by applying a smart combination of various modern generation technologies, CO2 capture and storage, the deployment of biomass and the re-use of residual heat it is possible to reach an optimal balance whereby the additional integral costs can be kept under control compared with the lowest-cost scenarios. To achieve this, clear growth and incentive guidelines need to be established for the various production options. This thesis will form a good starting point for that exercise

  13. Modeling the 2014 Ebola Virus Epidemic - Agent-Based Simulations, Temporal Analysis and Future Predictions for Liberia and Sierra Leone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siettos, Constantinos; Anastassopoulou, Cleo; Russo, Lucia; Grigoras, Christos; Mylonakis, Eleftherios

    2015-03-09

    We developed an agent-based model to investigate the epidemic dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Liberia and Sierra Leone from May 27 to December 21, 2014. The dynamics of the agent-based simulator evolve on small-world transmission networks of sizes equal to the population of each country, with adjustable densities to account for the effects of public health intervention policies and individual behavioral responses to the evolving epidemic. Based on time series of the official case counts from the World Health Organization (WHO), we provide estimates for key epidemiological variables by employing the so-called Equation-Free approach. The underlying transmission networks were characterized by rather random structures in the two countries with densities decreasing by ~19% from the early (May 27-early August) to the last period (mid October-December 21). Our estimates for the values of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate, are very close to the ones reported by the WHO Ebola response team during the early period of the epidemic (until September 14) that were calculated based on clinical data. Specifically, regarding the effective reproductive number Re, our analysis suggests that until mid October, Re was above 2.3 in both countries; from mid October to December 21, Re dropped well below unity in Liberia, indicating a saturation of the epidemic, while in Sierra Leone it was around 1.9, indicating an ongoing epidemic. Accordingly, a ten-week projection from December 21 estimated that the epidemic will fade out in Liberia in early March; in contrast, our results flashed a note of caution for Sierra Leone since the cumulative number of cases could reach as high as 18,000, and the number of deaths might exceed 5,000, by early March 2015. However, by processing the reported data of the very last period (December 21, 2014-January 18, 2015), we obtained more optimistic estimates indicative of a remission of

  14. Future plans for performance analysis and maintenance/inspection optimization of shutoff rods based on the case study of Bruce Power Unit-3 Shutoff Rod 5 inspection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nasimi, E.; Gabbar, H.A.

    2011-01-01

    Shutdown System 1 (SDS1) is a preferred method for a quick shutdown of nuclear fission process in CANDU (CANada Deuterium Uranium) reactor units. Failure of a routine SDS1 safety test during Fall 2009 outage resulted in the need to develop and execute a new methodology for Shutoff Rod inspection and re-evaluate the known degradation mechanisms and failure modes. This paper describes the development of this methodology and the obtained results. It also proposes several alternative solutions for the future performance analysis and maintenance/inspection optimization for SDS1 Shutoff Rods based on the Bruce Power Unit-3 Shutoff Rod 5 case study. (author)

  15. The Future of the Global Environment: A Model-based Analysis Supporting UNEP's First Global Environment Outlook

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakkes JA; Woerden JW van; Alcamo J; Berk MM; Bol P; Born GJ van den; Brink BJE ten; Hettelingh JP; Langeweg F; Niessen LW; Swart RJ; United Nations Environment; MNV

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the scenario analysis in UNEP's first Global Environment Outlook, published at the same time as the scenario analysis. This Outlook provides a pilot assessment of developments in the environment, both global and regional, between now and 2015, with a further projection to

  16. Heavy Duty Vehicle Futures Analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Askin, Amanda Christine; Barter, Garrett.; West, Todd H.; Manley, Dawn Kataoka

    2014-05-01

    This report describes work performed for an Early Career Research and Development project. This project developed a heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) sector model to assess the factors influencing alternative fuel and efficiency technology adoption. This model builds on a Sandia light duty vehicle sector model and provides a platform for assessing potential impacts of technological advancements developed at the Combustion Research Facility. Alternative fuel and technology adoption modeling is typically developed around a small set of scenarios. This HDV sector model segments the HDV sector and parameterizes input values, such as fuel prices, efficiencies, and vehicle costs. This parameterization enables sensitivity and trade space analyses to identify the inputs that are most associated with outputs of interest, such as diesel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Thus this analysis tool enables identification of the most significant HDV sector drivers that can be used to support energy security and climate change goals.

  17. The future of the global environment. A model-based analysis supporting UNEP's first global environment outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bakkes, J.; Van Woerden, J.; Alcamo, J.; Berk, M.; Bol, P.; Van den Born, G.J.; Ten Brink, B.; Hettelingh, J.P.; Niessen, L.; Langeweg, F.; Swart, R.

    1997-01-01

    Integrated assessments in support of environmental policy have been applied to a number of countries and regions, and to international negotiations. UNEP's first Global Environment Outlook (GEO-1) can be seen as a step towards making the tool of integrated assessment more widely available as a means for focusing action. This technical report documents RIVM's contribution to the GEO-1 report, focusing on the subject 'looking ahead'. It is illustrated that a 'what if' analysis helps to look beyond the delays in environmental and resource processes. This report illustrates that integrated assessment and modelling techniques can be excellent tools for environment and development policy-setting. The methodology, however, will need to be further developed and adapted to the realities and expectations of diverse regions, incorporating alternative policy strategies and development scenarios. This report focuses primarily on the period 1970-2015, because reliable historical data are often only generally available from 1970 onwards and the year 2015 is believed to match the time perspective of decision-makers. The findings of the analysis are reported in terms of six regions, corresponding with the division of the UNEP regional offices. Questions asked are: how will socioeconomic driving forces affect freshwater and land resources, and how will these changes mutually interact, and why are these changes important for society? Chapter 2 deals with the development of the social and economic driving forces. In the Chapters 3 and 4 it is discussed how this pressure influences selected aspects of the environment. Chapter 3 alone addresses the importance of selected elements of the interacting global element cycles for environmental quality, while Chapter 4 addresses land resources, their potential for food production and associated dependence on freshwater resources. The impacts on selected components of natural areas (Chapter 5) and society (Chapter 6) are subsequently addressed

  18. Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

    1999-01-01

    This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios

  19. Research development, current hotspots, and future directions of water research based on MODIS images: a critical review with a bibliometric analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yibo; Zhang, Yunlin; Shi, Kun; Yao, Xiaolong

    2017-06-01

    Water is essential for life as it provides drinking water and food for humans and animals. Additionally, the water environment provides habitats for numerous species and plays an important role in hydrological, nutrient, and carbon cycles. Among the existing natural resources on Earth's surface, water is the most extensive as it covers more than 70% of the Earth. To gather a comprehensive understanding of the focus of past, present, and future directions of remote sensing water research, we provide an alternative perspective on water research using moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery by conducting a comparative quantitative and qualitative analysis of research development, current hotspots, and future directions using a bibliometric analysis. Our study suggests that there has been a rapid growth in the scientific outputs of water research using MODIS imagery over the past 15 years compared to other popular satellites around the world. The analysis indicated that Remote Sensing of Environment was the most active journal, and "remote sensing," "imaging science photographic technology," "environmental sciences ecology," "meteorology atmospheric sciences," and "geology" are the top 5 most popular subject categories. The Chinese Academy of Sciences was the most productive institution with a total of 477 papers, and Hu CM (Chinese) was the most productive author with 76 papers. A keyword analysis indicated that "vegetation index," "evapotranspiration," and "phytoplankton" were the most active research topics throughout the study period. In addition, it is predicted that more attention will be paid to research on climate change and phenology in the future. Based on the keyword analysis and in consideration of current environmental problems, more studies should focus on the following three aspects: (1) develop methods suitable for data assimilation to fully explain climate or phenological phenomena at continental or global scales rather than at

  20. Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tian Wu

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model for the projection of Chinese vehicle stocks and road vehicle energy demand through 2050 based on low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios. To derive a gross-domestic product (GDP-dependent Gompertz function, Chinese GDP is estimated using a recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE model. The Gompertz function is estimated using historical data on vehicle development trends in North America, Pacific Rim and Europe to overcome the problem of insufficient long-running data on Chinese vehicle ownership. Results indicate that the number of projected vehicle stocks for 2050 is 300, 455 and 463 million for low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios respectively. Furthermore, the growth in China’s vehicle stock will increase beyond the inflection point of Gompertz curve by 2020, but will not reach saturation point during the period 2014–2050. Of major road vehicle categories, cars are the largest energy consumers, followed by trucks and buses. Growth in Chinese vehicle demand is primarily determined by per capita GDP. Vehicle saturation levels solely influence the shape of the Gompertz curve and population growth weakly affects vehicle demand. Projected total energy consumption of road vehicles in 2050 is 380, 575 and 586 million tonnes of oil equivalent for each scenario.

  1. Failure analysis: Status and future trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, R.E.; Soden, J.M.; Henderson, C.L.

    1995-01-01

    Failure analysis is a critical element in the integrated circuit manufacturing industry. This paper reviews the changing role of failure analysis and describes major techniques employed in the industry today. Several advanced failure analysis techniques that meet the challenges imposed by advancements in integrated circuit technology are described and their applications are discussed. Future trends in failure analysis needed to keep pace with the continuing advancements in integrated circuit technology are anticipated

  2. Efficient strategies for the integration of renewable energy into future energy infrastructures in Europe – An analysis based on transnational modeling and case studies for nine European regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boie, Inga; Fernandes, Camila; Frías, Pablo; Klobasa, Marian

    2014-01-01

    As a result of the current international climate change strategy, the European Commission has agreed on ambitious targets to reduce CO 2 emissions by more than 80% until 2050 as compared to 1990 levels and to increase the share of renewable energy and improve energy efficiency by 20% until 2020. Under this framework, renewable energy generation has increased considerably in the EU and it is expected to keep growing in the future years. This paper presents long-term strategies for transmission infrastructure development to integrate increasing amounts of renewable generation in the time horizon of 2030–2050. These are part of the outcomes of the SUSPLAN project, which focuses on four possible future renewable deployment scenarios in different European regions taking into account the corresponding infrastructure needs, especially electricity and gas grids, both on regional and transnational level. The main objective of the project is the development of guidelines for the integration of renewable energy into future energy infrastructures while taking account of national and regional characteristics. Therefore, the analysis is based on a two-track approach: A transnational modeling exercise (“top-down”) and in-depth case studies for nine representative European regions (“bottom-up”). - Highlights: • We present the main outcomes of the SUSPLAN EU project. • It assesses long-term energy infrastructure needs to integrate RES in Europe. • Regional and transnational analyses are performed for 4 RES scenarios until 2050. • Major barriers to the integration of RES into energy infrastructure are identified. • Efficient strategies to mitigate these barriers are proposed

  3. Safety analysis - current and future regulatory challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jamieson, T., E-mail: Terry.Jamieson@cnsc-ccsn.gc.ca [Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2015-07-01

    'Full text:' The current and future regulatory challenges associated with deterministic safety analysis are reviewed, including: 1. The CNSC's and safety control areas. 2. Traditional safety analysis approach. 3. Experience gained and impact. 4. Current analysis and regulatory approaches. 5. Current status. 6. Complexity and challenges In particular, the technical, regulatory and strategic aspects of these challenges are discussed. (author)

  4. Safety analysis - current and future regulatory challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamieson, T.

    2015-01-01

    'Full text:' The current and future regulatory challenges associated with deterministic safety analysis are reviewed, including: 1. The CNSC's and safety control areas. 2. Traditional safety analysis approach. 3. Experience gained and impact. 4. Current analysis and regulatory approaches. 5. Current status. 6. Complexity and challenges In particular, the technical, regulatory and strategic aspects of these challenges are discussed. (author)

  5. Future economic outlook of Nebraska rural community pharmacies based on break-even analysis of community operational costs and county population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keast, Shellie L; Jacobs, Elgene; Harrison, Donald; Farmer, Kevin; Thompson, David

    2010-09-01

    There is growing concern over increasingly limited access to local health care, including pharmacies, for rural citizens of the United States. Although geographically distant from most competitors, rural pharmacies may still struggle to generate an acceptable profit to remain economically viable. Therefore, a method for calculating the economic viability for a community pharmacy to recruit a potential new owner to assume the entrepreneurial risk is an important issue to consider when evaluating rural pharmacy access. The primary objective of this study was to use a modified break-even analysis to predict the future financial potential of the current pharmacy business to attract a new owner. The secondary objective was to forecast a risk level for a Nebraska county to sustain the number of pharmacies in the country beyond current ownership. This research used data provided by pharmacies that responded to a Nebraska Medicaid cost of dispensing (COD) survey in addition to data from the US Census Bureau, US Office of Management and Budget, and the Nebraska State Board of Pharmacy. Break-even analysis was used to determine the point where the prescription volume of the pharmacy not only covered the variable and fixed costs but also maintained a reasonable profit to attract new ownership. Counties were classified into 3 risk levels based on the projected available prescription volume and the number of pharmacies in each county. Sensitivity analysis was performed on the risk levels to determine the impact of variance in projected available prescription volume on the projected future outlook for the pharmacies in each county. Regression analysis of responses to the COD survey indicated that the annual break-even prescription volume ranged from 44,790 to 49,246 prescriptions per pharmacy per annum. The number of rural Nebraska pharmacies was projected to decline from 126 to 78. The number of counties in Nebraska without a single pharmacy was projected to increase from 19 to

  6. Cost-Savings Analysis of the Better Beginnings, Better Futures Community-Based Project for Young Children and Their Families: A 10-Year Follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Ray DeV; Petrunka, Kelly; Khan, Shahriar; Howell-Moneta, Angela; Nelson, Geoffrey; Pancer, S Mark; Loomis, Colleen

    2016-02-01

    This study examined the long-term cost-savings of the Better Beginnings, Better Futures (BBBF) initiative, a community-based early intervention project for young children living in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods during their transition to primary school. A quasi-experimental, longitudinal two-group design was used to compare costs and outcomes for children and families in three BBBF project neighborhoods (n = 401) and two comparison neighborhoods (n = 225). A cost-savings analysis was conducted using all project costs for providing up to 4 years of BBBF programs when children were in junior kindergarten (JK) (4 years old) to grade 2 (8 years old). Data on 19 government service cost measures were collected from the longitudinal research sample from the time the youth were in JK through to grade 12 (18 years old), 10 years after ending project participation. The average family incremental net savings to government of providing the BBBF project was $6331 in 2014 Canadian dollars. When the BBBF monetary return to government as a ratio of savings to costs was calculated, for every dollar invested by the government, a return of $2.50 per family was saved. Findings from this study have important implications for government investments in early interventions focused on a successful transition to primary school as well as parenting programs and community development initiatives in support of children's development.

  7. Rehabilitation centers: marketing analysis and future challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandra, Ashish; Stroube, William B; Willis, William K

    2014-01-01

    A rehabilitation center is another form of health care organization that specializes in providing care for particular conditions of patients. Patients admitted in rehab centers range from being accident victims to those suffering with a specific illness. These organizations are becoming extremely valuable in providing patient care services. However, they have not marketed themselves as aggressively as other health care organizations. This article provides an insight regarding rehab centers and examines marketing issues using a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis. It further provides some future prospects and challenges for marketers of these organizations.

  8. Technology-based suicide prevention: current applications and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luxton, David D; June, Jennifer D; Kinn, Julie T

    2011-01-01

    This review reports on current and emerging technologies for suicide prevention. Technology-based programs discussed include interactive educational and social networking Web sites, e-mail outreach, and programs that use mobile devices and texting. We describe innovative applications such as virtual worlds, gaming, and text analysis that are currently being developed and applied to suicide prevention and outreach programs. We also discuss the benefits and limitations of technology-based applications and discuss future directions for their use.

  9. CMS Data Analysis: Current Status and Future Strategy

    CERN Document Server

    Innocente, V

    2003-01-01

    We present the current status of CMS data analysis architecture and describe work on future Grid-based distributed analysis prototypes. CMS has two main software frameworks related to data analysis: COBRA, the main framework, and IGUANA, the interactive visualisation framework. Software using these frameworks is used today in the world-wide production and analysis of CMS data. We describe their overall design and present examples of their current use with emphasis on interactive analysis. CMS is currently developing remote analysis prototypes, including one based on Clarens, a Grid-enabled client-server tool. Use of the prototypes by CMS physicists will guide us in forming a Grid-enriched analysis strategy. The status of this work is presented, as is an outline of how we plan to leverage the power of our existing frameworks in the migration of CMS software to the Grid.

  10. THEORETICAL ANALYSIS STUDY OF FORMATION OF FUTURE LEGAL LAWYERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugene Stepanovich Shevlakov

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with topical issues of formation of legal consciousness of future lawyers in high school. Obtained kinds of legal consciousness of future lawyers, determined its structure. Dedicated components of justice are mutually reinforcing, and provide an opportunity for further development of the personality of the future specialist, their personal growth.The purpose: to carry out theoretical analysis of the problem of formation of legal consciousness of future lawyers.The novelty is based. On the analysis of theoretical appro-aches of pedagogy, psychology, law, the notion of «lawfulness of the future of the law student», which is regarded as a form of social consciousness, which is a set of legal views and feelings, expressing the attitude to the law and legal phenomena that have regulatory in character and which includes know-ledge of legal phenomena and their evaluation from the point of view of fairness and justice, formed in the process of studying in the University.Results: this article analyzes different approaches to understanding the content and essence of the concept of legal consciousness of the legal profession. Define the types and structure of legal consciousness of future lawyers.

  11. The identification of possible future provincial boundaries for South Africa based on an intramax analysis of journey-to-work data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JH Nel

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available National census data contain information on place of residence and place of work. It is possible to combine this information~and create journey-to-work flows. The process of establishing these flows are presented in this paper. The intramax method is explained and used to identify functional regions based upon these flows. Interesting applications, such as the demarcation of regions in South Africa are considered and solutions to disputed areas are put forward. The process of the creation of the current provincial boundaries are discussed. New boundaries, based on the intramax analysis of the journey-to-work data are proposed for four or five new provinces. Results compare favourably with those from a principal component and cluster analysis, which has previously been used to demarcate the South African space economy into a hierarchy of development regions.

  12. Erha Uncertainty Analysis: Planning for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brami, T.R.; Hopkins, D.F.; Loguer, W.L.; Cornagia, D.M.; Braisted, A.W.C.

    2002-01-01

    The Erha field (OPL 209) was discovered in 1999 approximately 100 km off the coast of Nigeria in 1,100 m of water. The discovery well (Erha-1) encountered oil and gas in deep-water clastic reservoirs. The first appraisal well (Erha-2) drilled 1.6 km downdip to the northwest penetrated an oil-water contact and confirmed a potentially commercial discovery. However, the Erha-3 and Erha-3 ST-1 boreholes, drilled on the faulted east-side of the field in 2001, encountered shallower fluid contacts. As a result of these findings, a comprehensive field-wide uncertainty analysis was performed to better understand what we know versus what we think regarding resource size and economic viability The uncertainty analysis process applied at Erha is an integrated scenario-based probabilistic approach to model resource and reserves. Its goal is to provide quantitative results for a variety of scenarios, thus allowing identification of and focus on critical controls (the variables that are likely to impose the greatest influence).The initial focus at Erha was to incorporate the observed fluid contacts and to develop potential scenarios that included the range of possibilities in unpenetrated portions of the field. Four potential compartmentalization scenarios were hypothesized. The uncertainty model combines these scenarios with reservoir parameters and their plausible ranges. Input data comes from multiple sources including: wells, 3D seismic, reservoir flow simulation, geochemistry, fault-seal analysis, sequence stratigraphic analysis, and analogs. Once created, the model is sampled using Monte-Carlo techniques to create probability density functions for a variety of variables including oil in-place and recoverable reserves.Results of the uncertainty analysis support that despite a thinner oil column on the faulted east-side of the field, Erha is an economically attractive opportunity. Further, the results have been to develop data acquisition plans and mitigation strategies that

  13. Past, present, future of neutron activation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guinn, V.P.

    1991-01-01

    Although the method of NAA was originated in 1936, use of the method was minimal for about the next ten years - due to the lack of a high-flux source of thermal neutrons. When such a copious source of neutrons - the nuclear reactor - became available, commencing in 1945, the power of the method to determine many elements, quantitatively, even though present in samples at concentrations as low as ppb, attracted many scientists. During about the next 20 years (1945-1965), NAA provided the first major results on trace elements (essential and toxic) in biomedical materials. These studies constituted the first major achievement of NAA - and such studies continue. Due to the initial lack of a high-efficiency detector of gamma radiation, work during the early part of this period had to be carried out by tedious radiochemical separations. Starting in the early 1950's, with the advent of the NaI(Tl) scintillation detector and multichannel pulse-height analyzers, the purely-instrumental form of the method (INAA) was born, and research and applications mushroomed. In the 1960s, two additional important applications of NAA were its vital use in the semiconductor industry and in the analysis of the lunar rocks. The INAA method in this period was greatly advanced by the availability of high-resolution germanium detectors. Applications in environmental studies, archaeology, and forensic chemistry were also of note. INAA is now a mature method, but still improving. As for the future, what is still needed are less expensive high-flux neutron sources, simple automated systems, gamma-ray detectors of even better resolution, and faster electronics. The field of NAA has been, and is, blessed by a large number of outstanding scientists, world-wide, all intrigued by the atomic nucleus and radioactive decay

  14. Future Contract Selection by Term Structure Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasco Grossmann

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In futures markets, a single asset is generally represented by several contracts with different maturities. The selection of specific contracts is an inevitable task that also creates new opportunities, especially in terms of speculative trading. Evaluating immediate and upcoming trading costs for all considered contracts might lead to a significantly improved performance. Among that, even possible market inefficiencies might be taken into consideration. This research introduces and evaluates a new algorithm for the contract selection. The results are benchmarked and compared with established methods using a Monte Carlo simulation on different commodity and index futures.

  15. Charged particle activation analysis: present status and future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chowdhury, D.P.

    2006-01-01

    Charged particle activation analysis is a highly sensitive nuclear analytical technique for the determination of elements at trace and ultra trace levels. CPAA involves the irradiation of samples with high energy charged particles, both light ions and heavy ions, from an accelerator in the energy range of 10 to 100 MeV. CPAA has been developed and standardized for the determination of several elements at trace levels in various types of materials using high energy ion beams from VEC machine at Kolkata. A brief review on CPAA is presented here based on our present works and its applications in future. (author)

  16. A cointegration analysis of petroleum futures prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Serletis, Apostolos (Calgary Univ., AB (Canada). Dept. of Economics)

    1994-04-01

    This paper presents evidence concerning the number of common stochastic trends in a system of three petroleum futures prices (crude oil, heating oil and unleaded gasoline) using daily data from 3 December 1984 to 30 April 1993. Johansen's maximum likelihood approach for estimating long-run relations in multivariate vector autoregressive models is used. The results indicate the presence of only one common trend. (author)

  17. Evidence-based dentistry: Future aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanika Mohindra

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Traditionally, clinical decisions in dentistry have been based on the experience of the dentist. If the given treatment works, it was utilized again, but if the results were disappointing, the procedure was deserted. Evaluating clinical treatment in this fashion is difficult because it is hard to know which factors are important for success and which contribute to failure. This came with the concept of evidence-based approach which facilitates conclusions for clinical practice based on sound research studies.

  18. Analysis of Current and Future SPEI Droughts in the La Plata Basin Based on Results from the Regional Eta Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Sordo-Ward

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available We identified and analysed droughts in the La Plata Basin (divided into seven sub-basins for the current period (1961–2005 and estimated their expected evolution under future climate projections for the periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099. Future climate projections were analysed from results of the Eta Regional Climate Model (grid resolution of approximately 10 km forced by the global climate model HadGEM2-ES over the La Plata basin, and considering a RCP4.5 emission scenario. Within each sub-basin, we particularly focused our drought analyses on croplands and grasslands, due to their economic relevance. The three-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI3 was used for drought identification and characterization. Droughts were evaluated in terms of time (percentage of time from the total length of each climate scenario, space (percentage of total area, and severity (SPEI3 values of cells characterized by cropland and grassland for each sub-basin and climate scenario. Drought-severity–area–frequency curves were developed to quantitatively relate the frequency distribution of drought occurrence to drought severity and area. For the period 2011–2040, droughts dominate the northern sub-basins, whereas alternating wet and short dry periods dominate the southern sub-basins. Wet climate spread from south to north within the La Plata Basin as more distant future scenarios were analysed, due to both a greater number of wet periods and fewer droughts. The area of each sub-basin affected by drought in all climate scenarios was highly varied temporally and spatially. The likelihood of the occurrence of droughts differed significantly between the studied cover types in the Lower Paraguay sub-basin, being higher for cropland than for grassland. Mainly in the Upper Paraguay and in the Upper Paraná basins the climate projections for all scenarios showed an increase of moderate and severe droughts over large regions

  19. The future of forensic DNA analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, John M.

    2015-01-01

    The author's thoughts and opinions on where the field of forensic DNA testing is headed for the next decade are provided in the context of where the field has come over the past 30 years. Similar to the Olympic motto of ‘faster, higher, stronger’, forensic DNA protocols can be expected to become more rapid and sensitive and provide stronger investigative potential. New short tandem repeat (STR) loci have expanded the core set of genetic markers used for human identification in Europe and the USA. Rapid DNA testing is on the verge of enabling new applications. Next-generation sequencing has the potential to provide greater depth of coverage for information on STR alleles. Familial DNA searching has expanded capabilities of DNA databases in parts of the world where it is allowed. Challenges and opportunities that will impact the future of forensic DNA are explored including the need for education and training to improve interpretation of complex DNA profiles. PMID:26101278

  20. Software-Based Challenges of Developing the Future Distribution Grid

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stewart, Emma; Kiliccote, Sila; McParland, Charles

    2014-06-01

    The software that the utility industry currently uses may be insufficient to analyze the distribution grid as it rapidly modernizes to include active resources such as distributed generation, switch and voltage control, automation, and increasingly complex loads. Although planners and operators have traditionally viewed the distribution grid as a passive load, utilities and consultants increasingly need enhanced analysis that incorporates active distribution grid loads in order to ensure grid reliability. Numerous commercial and open-source tools are available for analyzing distribution grid systems. These tools vary in complexity from providing basic load-flow and capacity analysis under steady-state conditions to time-series analysis and even geographical representations of dynamic and transient events. The need for each type of analysis is not well understood in the industry, nor are the reasons that distribution analysis requires different techniques and tools both from those now available and from those used for transmission analysis. In addition, there is limited understanding of basic capability of the tools and how they should be practically applied to the evolving distribution system. The study reviews the features and state of the art capability of current tools, including usability and visualization, basic analysis functionality, advanced analysis including inverters, and renewable generation and load modeling. We also discuss the need for each type of distribution grid system analysis. In addition to reviewing basic functionality current models, we discuss dynamics and transient simulation in detail and draw conclusions about existing software?s ability to address the needs of the future distribution grid as well as the barriers to modernization of the distribution grid that are posed by the current state of software and model development. Among our conclusions are that accuracy, data transfer, and data processing abilities are key to future

  1. System analysis: Developing tools for the future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Jong, K.; clever, J.; Draper, J.V.; Davies, B.; Lonks, A.

    1996-02-01

    This report introduces and evaluates system analysis tools that were developed, or are under development, for the Robotics Technology Development Program (RTDP). Additionally, it discusses system analysis work completed using these tools aimed at completing a system analysis of the retrieval of waste from underground storage tanks on the Hanford Reservation near Richland, Washington. The tools developed and evaluated include a mixture of commercially available tools adapted to RTDP requirements, and some tools developed in house. The tools that are included in this report include: a Process Diagramming Tool, a Cost Modeling Tool, an Amortization Modeling Tool, a graphical simulation linked to the Cost Modeling Tool, a decision assistance tool, and a system thinking tool. Additionally, the importance of performance testing to the RTDP and the results of such testing executed is discussed. Further, the results of the Tank Waste Retrieval (TWR) System Diagram, the TWR Operations Cost Model, and the TWR Amortization Model are presented, and the implication of the results are discussed. Finally, the RTDP system analysis tools are assessed and some recommendations are made regarding continuing development of the tools and process.

  2. Thermodynamics and process analysis for future economic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayres, R.U.

    1995-01-01

    Economists are increasingly interested in forecasting future costs and benefits of policies for dealing with materials/energy fluxes, polluting emissions and environmental impacts on various scales, from sectoral to global. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are currently popular because they project demand and industrial structure into the future, along an equilibrium path. But they are applicable only to the extent that structural changes occur in or near equilibrium, independent of radical technological (or social) change. The alternative tool for analyzing economic implications of scenario assumptions is to use Leontief-type Input-Output (I-O) models. I-O models are unable to endogenize structural shifts (changing I-O coefficients). However, this can be a virtue when considering radical rather than incremental shifts. Postulated I-O tables can be used independently to check the internal consistency of scenarios. Or I-O models can be used to generate scenarios by linking them to econometric 'macro-drivers' (which can, in principle, be CGE models). Explicit process analysis can be integrated, in principle, with I-O models. This hybrid scheme provides a natural means of satisfying physical constraints, especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This is important, to avoid constructing scenarios based on physically impossible processes. Process analysis is really the only available tool for constructing physically plausible alternative future I-O tables, and generating materials/energy and waste emissions coefficients. Explicit process analysis also helps avoid several problems characteristic of 'pure' CGE or I-O models, viz. (1) aggregation errors (2) inability to handle arbitrary combinations of co-product and co-input relationships and (3) inability to reflect certain non-linearities such as internal feedback loops. 4 figs., 2 tabs., 38 refs

  3. International Space Station Future Correlation Analysis Improvements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laible, Michael R.; Pinnamaneni, Murthy; Sugavanam, Sujatha; Grygier, Michael

    2018-01-01

    Ongoing modal analyses and model correlation are performed on different configurations of the International Space Station (ISS). These analyses utilize on-orbit dynamic measurements collected using four main ISS instrumentation systems: External Wireless Instrumentation System (EWIS), Internal Wireless Instrumentation System (IWIS), Space Acceleration Measurement System (SAMS), and Structural Dynamic Measurement System (SDMS). Remote Sensor Units (RSUs) are network relay stations that acquire flight data from sensors. Measured data is stored in the Remote Sensor Unit (RSU) until it receives a command to download data via RF to the Network Control Unit (NCU). Since each RSU has its own clock, it is necessary to synchronize measurements before analysis. Imprecise synchronization impacts analysis results. A study was performed to evaluate three different synchronization techniques: (i) measurements visually aligned to analytical time-response data using model comparison, (ii) Frequency Domain Decomposition (FDD), and (iii) lag from cross-correlation to align measurements. This paper presents the results of this study.

  4. Future technological and economic performance of IGCC and FT production facilities with and without CO2 capture: Combining component based learning curve and bottom-up analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knoope, M.M.J.; Meerman, J.C.; Ramirez, C.A.; Faaij, A.P.C.

    2013-01-01

    This study aims to investigate the technological and economic prospects of integrated gasification facilities for power (IGCC) and Fischer–Tropsch (FT) liquid production with and without CCS over time. For this purpose, a component based experience curve was constructed and applied to identify the

  5. [Analysis of iris: history and future].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norn, Mogens

    2003-01-01

    Analysis of the iris has ancient roots, but iridology in its present sense was established by Philippi Meyers in 1670. The discipline was further developed by Ignaz Péczely in 1881 and by Nils Liljequist in 1890. Other studies have been published in Germany, Sweden, Norway, England, France, USA, Australia and elsewhere, and iridology is practiced worldwide. The techniques used are described and the sources of error are mentioned when several photos from the same patient are compared (e.g. the influences of differences in pupil size, magnification and the effect of oblique light). The iris key (irigraphy) and the interpretation of different sights are discussed in some detail; there is little agreement among iridologists. Some iris diagnoses are of little interest to day and some modern diseases are missing in the diagnostic system. Controlled studies reveal that iridology is of no use whatsoever for the detection of cancer and other diseases in the stomach, intestines, kidney, lungs and heart. The reason for the continued popularity of iridology is discussed, and it is concluded that this type of alternative medicine is not harmless.

  6. Interim Feed The Future Population Based Assessment of Cambodia

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Agency for International Development — This is the interim population based survey of Feed the Future in Cambodia for 2015. The data is split into survey modules. Modules A through C includes location...

  7. A Nodal Pricing Analysis of the Future German Electricity Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ozdemir, O.; Hers, J.S.; Bartholomew Fisher, E.; Brunekreeft, G.; Hobbs, B.F.

    2009-05-01

    The electricity market in Germany is likely to undergo several significant structural changes over the years to come. Here one may think of Germany's ambitious renewable agenda, the disputed decommissioning of nuclear facilities, but also unbundling of TSO's as enforced by European regulation. This study is a scenario-based analysis of the impact of different realizations of known investment plans for transmission and generation capacity on the future German power market while accounting for internal congestion. For this analysis the static equilibrium model of the European electricity market COMPETES is deployed, including a 10-node representation of the German highvoltage grid. Results for the multi-node analysis indicate that price divergence and congestion are likely to arise in the German market as renewable additions affecting mainly the North of Germany, the debated decommissioning of nuclear facilities in the South, and the expected decommissioning of coal-fired facilities in Western Germany appear to render current investment plans for transmission capacity insufficient. The current system of singlezone pricing for the German market may therewith be compromised. However, transmission additions would not benefit all market parties, with producers in exporting regions and consumers in importing regions being the main beneficiaries. Vertical unbundling of German power companies could increase the incentive for constructing transmission lines if generation capacity would cause Germany to be a net-importing country. In case Germany remains a net-exporting country, the effects of vertical unbundling on cross-border capacity are less clear cut.

  8. Futures Business Models for an IoT Enabled Healthcare Sector: A Causal Layered Analysis Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julius Francis Gomes

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To facilitate futures business research by proposing a novel way to combine business models as a conceptual tool with futures research techniques. Design: A futures perspective is adopted to foresight business models of the Internet of Things (IoT enabled healthcare sector by using business models as a futures business research tool. In doing so, business models is coupled with one of the most prominent foresight methodologies, Causal Layered Analysis (CLA. Qualitative analysis provides deeper understanding of the phenomenon through the layers of CLA; litany, social causes, worldview and myth. Findings: It is di cult to predict the far future for a technology oriented sector like healthcare. This paper presents three scenarios for short-, medium- and long-term future. Based on these scenarios we also present a set of business model elements for different future time frames. This paper shows a way to combine business models with CLA, a foresight methodology; in order to apply business models in futures business research. Besides offering early results for futures business research, this study proposes a conceptual space to work with individual business models for managerial stakeholders. Originality / Value: Much research on business models has offered conceptualization of the phenomenon, innovation through business model and transformation of business models. However, existing literature does not o er much on using business model as a futures research tool. Enabled by futures thinking, we collected key business model elements and building blocks for the futures market and ana- lyzed them through the CLA framework.

  9. Analysis of future nuclear power plants competitiveness with stochastic methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feretic, D.; Tomsic, Z.

    2004-01-01

    To satisfy the increased demand it is necessary to build new electrical power plants, which could in an optimal way meet, the imposed acceptability criteria. The main criteria are potential to supply the required energy, to supply this energy with minimal (or at least acceptable) costs, to satisfy licensing requirements and be acceptable to public. The main competitors for unlimited electricity production in next few decades are fossil power plants (coal and gas) and nuclear power plants. New renewable power plants (solar, wind, biomass) are also important but due to limited energy supply potential and high costs can be only supplement to the main generating units. Large hydropower plans would be competitive under condition of existence of suitable sites for construction of such plants. The paper describes the application of a stochastic method for comparing economic parameters of future electrical power generating systems including conventional and nuclear power plants. The method is applied to establish competitive specific investment costs of future nuclear power plants when compared with combined cycle gas fired units combined with wind electricity generators using best estimated and optimistic input data. The bases for economic comparison of potential options are plant life time levelized electricity generating costs. The purpose is to assess the uncertainty of several key performance and cost of electricity produced in coal fired power plant, gas fired power plant and nuclear power plant developing probability distribution of levelized price of electricity from different Power Plants, cumulative probability of levelized price of electricity for each technology and probability distribution of cost difference between the technologies. The key parameters evaluated include: levelized electrical energy cost USD/kWh,, discount rate, interest rate for credit repayment, rate of expected increase of fuel cost, plant investment cost , fuel cost , constant annual

  10. Oil futures prices and stock management: a cointegration analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balabanoff, Stefan

    1995-01-01

    Futures markets are considered important to hedgers and speculators. Therefore, they are relevant to stock management. This issue is tested empirically by applying the methodology of cointegration analysis and causality testing to the monthly average of commercial (non-strategic) primary oil stocks and monthly averages of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot and futures prices for one month and three-months delivery, over the period January 1985 to June 1993. Long-and short-run relations are presented. The results support the view of a relationships between futures prices and oil stocks. (author)

  11. Future perspectives of resin-based dental materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jandt, Klaus D; Sigusch, Bernd W

    2009-08-01

    This concise review and outlook paper gives a view of selected potential future developments in the area of resin-based biomaterials with an emphasis on dental composites. A selection of key publications (1 book, 35 scientific original publications and 1 website source) covering the areas nanotechnology, antimicrobial materials, stimuli responsive materials, self-repairing materials and materials for tissue engineering with direct or indirect relations and/or implications to resin-based dental materials is critically reviewed and discussed. Connections between these fields and their potential for resin-based dental materials are highlighted and put in perspective. The need to improve shrinkage properties and wear resistance is obvious for dental composites, and a vast number of attempts have been made to accomplish these aims. Future resin-based materials may be further improved in this respect if, for example nanotechnology is applied. Dental composites may, however, reach a completely new quality by utilizing new trends from materials science, such as introducing nanostructures, antimicrobial properties, stimuli responsive capabilities, the ability to promote tissue regeneration or repair of dental tissues if the composites were able to repair themselves. This paper shows selected potential future developments in the area of resin-based dental materials, gives basic and industrial researchers in dental materials science, and dental practitioners a glance into the potential future of these materials, and should stimulate discussion about needs and future developments in the area.

  12. Effect-directed analysis: Current status and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Seongjin; Giesy, John P.; Lee, Jung-Suk; Lee, Jong-Hyeon; Khim, Jong Seong

    2016-09-01

    Effect-directed analysis (EDA) has become useful for identification of toxicant(s) that occur in mixtures in the environment, especially those that are causative agents of specific adverse effects. Here, we summarize and review EDA methodology including preparation of samples, biological analyses, fractionations, and instrumental analyses, highlighting key scientific advancements. A total of 63 documents since 1999 (Scopus search) including 46 research articles, 13 review papers, and 4 project descriptions, have been collected and reviewed in this study. At the early stage (1999-2010), most studies that applied EDA focused on organic extracts of freshwater and coastal contaminated sediments and wastewater. Toxic effects were often measured using cell-based bioassays ( in vitro) and the causative chemicals were identified by use of low resolution gas chromatography with mass selective detector (GCMSD). More recently (2010-present), EDA has been extended to various matrices such as biota, soil, crude oil, and suspended solids and techniques have been improved to include determination of bioavailability in vivo. In particular, methods for non-target screenings of organic chemicals in environmental samples using cutting-edge instrumentation such as time of flight-mass spectrometry (ToF-MS), Fourier transform-ion cyclotron resonance (FT-ICR), and Orbitrap mass spectrometer have been developed. This overview provides descriptions of recent improvements of EDA and suggests future research directions based on current understandings and limitations.

  13. Chicane and wiggler based bunch compressors for future linear colliders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raubenheimer, T.O.; Emma, P.; Kheifets, S.

    1993-05-01

    In this paper, we discuss bunch compressors for future linear colliders. In the past, the bunch compression optics has been based upon achromatic cells using strong sextupoles to correct the dispersive and betatron chromaticity. To preserve the very small emittances required in most future collider designs, these schemes tend to have very tight alignment tolerances. Here, we describe bunch compressors based upon magnetic chicanes or wigglers which do need sextupoles to correct the chromatic emittance dilution. The dispersive chromaticity cancels naturally and the betatron chromaticity is not a significant source of emittance dilution. Thus, these schemes allow for substantially reduced alignment tolerances. Finally, we present a detailed design for the NLC linear collider

  14. Time Series Analysis of Wheat Futures Reward in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    Different from the fact that the main researches are focused on single futures contract and lack of the comparison of different periods, this paper described the statistical characteristics of wheat futures reward time series of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in recent three years. Besides the basic statistic analysis, the paper used the GARCH and EGARCH model to describe the time series which had the ARCH effect and analyzed the persistence of volatility shocks and the leverage effect. The results showed that compared with that of normal one,wheat futures reward series were abnormality, leptokurtic and thick tail distribution. The study also found that two-part of the reward series had no autocorrelation. Among the six correlative series, three ones presented the ARCH effect. By using of the Auto-regressive Distributed Lag Model, GARCH model and EGARCH model, the paper demonstrates the persistence of volatility shocks and the leverage effect on the wheat futures reward time series. The results reveal that on the one hand, the statistical characteristics of the wheat futures reward are similar to the aboard mature futures market as a whole. But on the other hand, the results reflect some shortages such as the immatureness and the over-control by the government in the Chinese future market.

  15. Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

  16. Large scale scenario analysis of future low carbon energy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olaleye, Olaitan; Baker, Erin

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we use a multi-model framework to examine a set of possible future energy scenarios resulting from R&D investments in Solar, Nuclear, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), Bio-fuels, Bio-electricity, and Batteries for Electric Transportation. Based on a global scenario analysis, we examine the impact on the economy of advancement in energy technologies, considering both individual technologies and the interactions between pairs of technologies, with a focus on the role of uncertainty. Nuclear and CCS have the most impact on abatement costs, with CCS mostly important at high levels of abatement. We show that CCS and Bio-electricity are complements, while most of the other energy technology pairs are substitutes. We also examine for stochastic dominance between R&D portfolios: given the uncertainty in R&D outcomes, we examine which portfolios would be preferred by all decision-makers, regardless of their attitude toward risk. We observe that portfolios with CCS tend to stochastically dominate those without CCS; and portfolios lacking CCS and Nuclear tend to be stochastically dominated by others. We find that the dominance of CCS becomes even stronger as uncertainty in climate damages increases. Finally, we show that there is significant value in carefully choosing a portfolio, as relatively small portfolios can dominate large portfolios. - Highlights: • We examine future energy scenarios in the face of R&D and climate uncertainty. • We examine the impact of advancement in energy technologies and pairs of technologies. • CCS complements Bio-electricity while most technology pairs are substitutes. • R&D portfolios without CCS are stochastically dominated by portfolios with CCS. • Higher damage uncertainty favors R&D development of CCS and Bio-electricity

  17. Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Qi; Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

    2012-01-01

    Under continuing policies of CO 2 emissions reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system. The development plans for nuclear power and renewable energy - particularly solar and wind power - are being reconsidered in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident. To contribute to this, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios for 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development policies, and the maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued. On the other side of the equation, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering potential energy saving measures. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate quantitatively the technological, economic and environmental impacts of different supply policy selections and demand assumptions on future electricity systems. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input–output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix, CO 2 emissions, and generation cost of the scenarios were inter-compared and analyzed. The penetration of renewable energy generation in a future electricity system in Japan, as well as its relationship with nuclear power share was uncovered. -- Highlights: ► Scenario analysis is conducted on future electricity systems under different supply policies and demand assumptions. ► Scenario analysis is conducted using a input–output hour-by-hour simulation model for real-time demand-supply balance. ► The technological, economic and environmental impacts of supply policies and demand assumptions on future electricity systems are studied. ► The maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued in the scenario analysis using the hour-by-hour simulation. ► The relationship between the penetration levels of renewable energy and nuclear power

  18. Future Trends in Reliability-Based Bridge Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    Future bridge management systems will be based on simple stochastic models predicting the residual strength of structural elements. The current deterministic management systems are not effective in optimizing e.g. the life cycle cost of a bridge or a system of bridges. A number of important factors...

  19. Future prospects of antiarrhythmic treatment based on experimental studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janse, M. J.

    1995-01-01

    Based on recent experimental studies, a number of speculations about future developments are made regarding the treatment of atrial fibrillation, the problem of proarrhythmia in patients with heart failure, and the treatment of ventricular tachycardia developing during the first 6 weeks following

  20. Current and Future Trends in Game-Based Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Vaz de Carvalho

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The first number of the second volume of the EAI Transactions on Serious Games focuses on the results presented on the European Conference on Game-Based Learning. This event, already on the 8th edition, has set standards in terms of presentation of research and practice and in the pointing out of new and future trends in the development of Game-Based Learning. As such, we are quite thrilled to be able to report them here.

  1. Future Scope of Community Based Tourism in Nepal

    OpenAIRE

    Gurung, Sunita

    2015-01-01

    This Bachelor’s thesis is based on the tourism and community based tourism in Nepal. The purpose of selecting tourism as a main topic is to find out the future scope of CBT in Nepal. Despite having small size, Nepal holds many attractive and adventurous tourist destinations. Nepal is famous from its cultural and traditional diversity, natural beauty, trekking trails, moun-taineering and warm and welcoming hospitality. Tourism in Nepal is undoubtedly the most important source for the econo...

  2. The design, results and future development of the National Energy Strategy Environmental Analysis Model (NESEAM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, R.E.; Boyd, G.A.; Breed, W.S.

    1991-01-01

    The National Energy Strategy Environmental Model (NESEAM) has been developed to project emissions for the National Energy Strategy (NES). Two scenarios were evaluated for the NES, a Current Policy Base Case and a NES Action Case. The results from the NES Actions Case project much lower emissions than the Current Policy Base Case. Future enhancements to NESEAM will focus on fuel cycle analysis, including future technologies and additional pollutants to model. NESEAM's flexibility will allow it to model other future legislative issues. 7 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

  3. Wireless Technology Use Case Requirement Analysis for Future Space Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abedi, Ali; Wilkerson, DeLisa

    2016-01-01

    This report presents various use case scenarios for wireless technology -including radio frequency (RF), optical, and acoustic- and studies requirements and boundary conditions in each scenario. The results of this study can be used to prioritize technology evaluation and development and in the long run help in development of a roadmap for future use of wireless technology. The presented scenarios cover the following application areas: (i) Space Vehicles (manned/unmanned), (ii) Satellites and Payloads, (iii) Surface Explorations, (iv) Ground Systems, and (v) Habitats. The requirement analysis covers two parallel set of conditions. The first set includes the environmental conditions such as temperature, radiation, noise/interference, wireless channel characteristics and accessibility. The second set of requirements are dictated by the application and may include parameters such as latency, throughput (effective data rate), error tolerance, and reliability. This report provides a comprehensive overview of all requirements from both perspectives and details their effects on wireless system reliability and network design. Application area examples are based on 2015 NASA Technology roadmap with specific focus on technology areas: TA 2.4, 3.3, 5.2, 5.5, 6.4, 7.4, and 10.4 sections that might benefit from wireless technology.

  4. Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoette, Trisha Marie

    2012-03-01

    Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of the attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.

  5. Future Perspectives for Arts-Based Methods in Higher Education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chemi, Tatiana; Du, Xiangyun

    2018-01-01

    practices around the world while, on the other, addressing the challenges that these practices meet. Disruptive strategies must be given opportunities for reflection and reflexive spaces, opportunities for learning and teaching the artistic languages. The chapters show that long-term, systematic...... conversations between scholars and educators are needed, and that artists have a central role in the future developments of this field. Whether professional or amateur artists is no matter, but the craft and creativity of art practices in the flesh must lead any future direction of arts-based methods....

  6. What is the future of work based learning in VET?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Christian Helms

    not to pursue an academic career. Countries with strong apprenticeship systems tend to have less youth unemployment and a smoother transition to the labour market than others. Furthermore, from a learning perspective, the outcomes of work-based training and informal learning are enhanced when they are combined...... that question the future role and organisation of work-based training in VET. The purpose of this paper is to examine these challenges based on a review of research on European VET systems and analyses of the Danish dual system of VET. In the end of the paper, some innovative solutions to these challenges...

  7. The future of Jungian analysis: strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats ('SWOT').

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuels, Andrew

    2017-11-01

    Using a methodology derived from management and organizational studies, the author reviews the future of Jungian analysis. The methodology is termed SWOT - strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats. A selected list in each of these categories is presented. The author is transparent in allowing for the fact that the paper not only derives from a public lecture on the topic, but also retains the immediacy and the contrarian and opinionated style of such a lecture. © 2017, The Society of Analytical Psychology.

  8. Investment guidelines based on future growth indicators / Christo Vorster

    OpenAIRE

    Vorster, Christo

    2008-01-01

    The stock market is cited to be one of the greatest tools ever invented for building wealth. The relative small size of the ideal portfolio, consisting of 10 to 12 shares, reiterates the fact that share selection is absolutely crucial to portfolio success and ultimately the creation of personal financial independence. The main objective of this study is to research, identify and develop investment guidelines based on possible future growth indicators of organisations listed on the JSE. ...

  9. Flood vulnerability, local perception and gender role judgment using multivariate analysis: A problem-based “participatory action to Future Skill Management” to cope with flood impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.A. Rakib

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Flood impacts and social vulnerability are substantial threats for the sustainable development of the developing world. This study focuses on some particular points of flood impacts and the local concept towards existing management capacity. Additionally, significant focus was given to gender roles and how they may impact measures that aim towards reducing flood risks. Both qualitative and quantitative techniques were applied during the research, in order to understand the perception of the char-land communities on natural hazards, social crisis, resource accessibility, climatic uncertainty and the gender role to cope with flood consequences. Concurrently the questionnaire survey and focus group discussion (FGD was performed among the local people. This study revealed that majority of the people was directly threatened by the destructive consequences of flood hazards, which in turn, badly influenced the household economies, alongside its education, security and infrastructural prospects. Some decades ago, the application of indigenous techniques was deemed successful as the communities managed to effectively reduce the risk involved with potential floods. However, now the solution is no longer clear as it is disturbed by external climate components. Results showed the vulnerability of the local communities in terms of knowledge, resource access, communication system, proper information dissemination, health, and livelihood. The gender variability is believed to have significant value in terms of flood disaster risk reduction, household development, and family caring activities. Principal component analysis (PCA and cluster analysis (CA has clearly identified the gender role in the char-land community. The women's activities are profoundly focused in terms of the flood risk management, and the families generally do not properly appreciate the value of women and their role. However, the problem-based “Participatory Action to Future Skill

  10. Modelling and simulation-based acquisition decision support: present & future

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, S

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available stream_source_info Naidoo1_2009.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 24551 Content-Encoding UTF-8 stream_name Naidoo1_2009.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 1 Modelling & Simulation...-Based Acquisition Decision Support: Present & Future Shahen Naidoo Abstract The Ground Based Air Defence System (GBADS) Programme, of the South African Army has been applying modelling and simulation (M&S) to provide acquisition decision and doctrine...

  11. Trajectory Based Traffic Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogh, Benjamin Bjerre; Andersen, Ove; Lewis-Kelham, Edwin

    2013-01-01

    We present the INTRA system for interactive path-based traffic analysis. The analyses are developed in collaboration with traffic researchers and provide novel insights into conditions such as congestion, travel-time, choice of route, and traffic-flow. INTRA supports interactive point-and-click a......We present the INTRA system for interactive path-based traffic analysis. The analyses are developed in collaboration with traffic researchers and provide novel insights into conditions such as congestion, travel-time, choice of route, and traffic-flow. INTRA supports interactive point......-and-click analysis, due to a novel and efficient indexing structure. With the web-site daisy.aau.dk/its/spqdemo/we will demonstrate several analyses, using a very large real-world data set consisting of 1.9 billion GPS records (1.5 million trajectories) recorded from more than 13000 vehicles, and touching most...

  12. The JET Intershot Analysis: Current infrastructure and future plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Layne, R.; Cook, N.; Harting, D.; McDonald, D.C.; Tidy, C.

    2010-01-01

    The JET Intershot Analysis (Chain1) generates processed data following a pulse. Maintaining the pulse repetition rate is one of JET's key success factors, so performance of Chain1 is crucial. This paper will describe JET's experience of managing Chain1, including a description of the control system used to ensure the analysis chain runs as quickly as possible, and a discussion of JET's experience of integrating externally developed codes into a standard analysis framework. The current Chain1 infrastructure was developed in 1999 and although reliable and efficient is starting to prove costly in terms of flexibility and extensibility to meet JET's current and future needs. For this reason JET is planning to re-implement the Chain1 system. The paper will outline the work done towards this aim, and present a model of the proposed new system. Finally, possible future steps towards an integrated data production chain for JET will be discussed, and the potential applicability to next generation fusion devices will be outlined.

  13. Membrane-based seawater desalination: Present and future prospects

    KAUST Repository

    Amy, Gary L.

    2016-10-20

    Given increasing regional water scarcity and that almost half of the world\\'s population lives within 100 km of an ocean, seawater represents a virtually infinite water resource. However, its exploitation is presently limited by the significant specific energy consumption (kWh/m) required by conventional desalination technologies, further exasperated by high unit costs ($/m) and environmental impacts including GHG emissions (g CO-eq/m), organism impingement/entrainment through intakes, and brine disposal through outfalls. This paper explores the state-of-the-art in present seawater desalination practice, emphasizing membrane-based technologies, while identifying future opportunities in step improvements to conventional technologies and development of emerging, potentially disruptive, technologies through advances in material science, process engineering, and system integration. In this paper, seawater reverse osmosis (RO) serves as the baseline conventional technology. The discussion extends beyond desalting processes into membrane-based salinity gradient energy production processes, which can provide an energy offset to desalination process energy requirements. The future membrane landscape in membrane-based desalination and salinity gradient energy is projected to include ultrahigh permeability RO membranes, renewable-energy driven desalination, and emerging processes including closed-circuit RO, membrane distillation, forward osmosis, pressure retarded osmosis, and reverse electrodialysis according various niche applications and/or hybrids, operating separately or in conjunction with RO.

  14. Community-based dental education: history, current status, and future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Formicola, Allan J; Bailit, Howard L

    2012-01-01

    This article examines the history, current status, and future direction of community-based dental education (CBDE). The key issues addressed include the reasons that dentistry developed a different clinical education model than the other health professions; how government programs, private medical foundations, and early adopter schools influenced the development of CBDE; the societal and financial factors that are leading more schools to increase the time that senior dental students spend in community programs; the impact of CBDE on school finances and faculty and student perceptions; and the reasons that CBDE is likely to become a core part of the clinical education of all dental graduates.

  15. JAVA based LCD Reconstruction and Analysis Tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bower, G.

    2004-01-01

    We summarize the current status and future developments of the North American Group's Java-based system for studying physics and detector design issues at a linear collider. The system is built around Java Analysis Studio (JAS) an experiment-independent Java-based utility for data analysis. Although the system is an integrated package running in JAS, many parts of it are also standalone Java utilities

  16. Java based LCD reconstruction and analysis tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bower, Gary; Cassell, Ron; Graf, Norman; Johnson, Tony; Ronan, Mike

    2001-01-01

    We summarize the current status and future developments of the North American Group's Java-based system for studying physics and detector design issues at a linear collider. The system is built around Java Analysis Studio (JAS) an experiment-independent Java-based utility for data analysis. Although the system is an integrated package running in JAS, many parts of it are also standalone Java utilities

  17. Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duinker, Peter N.; Greig, Lorne A.

    2007-01-01

    Scenarios and scenario analysis have become popular approaches in organizational planning and participatory exercises in pursuit of sustainable development. However, they are little used, at least in any formal way, in environmental impact assessment (EIA). This is puzzling because EIA is a process specifically dedicated to exploring options for more-sustainable (i.e., less environmentally damaging) futures. In this paper, we review the state of the art associated with scenarios and scenario analysis, and describe two areas where scenario analysis could be particularly helpful in EIA: (a) in defining future developments for cumulative effects assessment; and (b) in considering the influence of contextual change - e.g. climate change - on impact forecasts for specific projects. We conclude by encouraging EIA practitioners to learn about the promise of scenario-based analysis and implement scenario-based methods so that EIA can become more effective in fostering sustainable development

  18. Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

    2017-01-01

    Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores the potenti......Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

  19. Empirical analysis for Distributed Energy Resources' impact on future distribution network

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Han, Xue; Sandels, Claes; Zhu, Kun

    2012-01-01

    There has been a large body of statements claiming that the large scale deployment of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) will eventually reshape the future distribution grid operation in various ways. Thus, it is interesting to introduce a platform to interpret to what extent the power system...... operation will be alternated. In this paper, quantitative results in terms of how the future distribution grid will be changed by the deployment of distributed generation, active demand and electric vehicles, are presented. The analysis is based on the conditions for both a radial and a meshed distribution...... network. The input parameters are based on the current and envisioned DER deployment scenarios proposed for Sweden....

  20. Multifractal spectrum analysis of nonlinear dynamical mechanisms in China’s agricultural futures markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shu-Peng; He, Ling-Yun

    2010-04-01

    Based on Partition Function and Multifractal Spectrum Analysis, we investigated the nonlinear dynamical mechanisms in China’s agricultural futures markets, namely, Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE for short) and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE for short), where nearly all agricultural futures contracts are traded in the two markets. Firstly, we found nontrivial multifractal spectra, which are the empirical evidence of the existence of multifractal features, in 4 representative futures markets in China, that is, Hard Winter wheat (HW for short) and Strong Gluten wheat (SG for short) futures markets from ZCE and Soy Meal (SM for short) futures and Soy Bean No.1 (SB for short) futures markets from DCE. Secondly, by shuffling the original time series, we destroyed the underlying nonlinear temporal correlation; thus, we identified that long-range correlation mechanism constitutes major contributions in the formation in the multifractals of the markets. Thirdly, by tracking the evolution of left- and right-half spectra, we found that there exist critical points, between which there are different behaviors, in the left-half spectra for large price fluctuations; but for the right-hand spectra for small price fluctuations, the width of those increases slowly as the delay t increases in the long run. Finally, the dynamics of large fluctuations is significantly different from that of the small ones, which implies that there exist different underlying mechanisms in the formation of multifractality in the markets. Our main contributions focus on that we not only provided empirical evidence of the existence of multifractal features in China agricultural commodity futures markets; but also we pioneered in investigating the sources of the multifractality in China’s agricultural futures markets in current literature; furthermore, we investigated the nonlinear dynamical mechanisms based on spectrum analysis, which offers us insights into the underlying dynamical mechanisms in

  1. The influence of future-oriented technology analysis: addressing the Cassandra challenge

    OpenAIRE

    JOHNSTON Ron; CAGNIN Cristiano

    2011-01-01

    This paper is based on a series of interviews with nine leading researchers conducted during the Future-Oriented Technology Analysis International Conference held in Seville on 16–17 October 2008. Analysis of these interviews paints a picture of FTA as an increasingly important approach being adopted in many countries to address the many challenges which are emerging at this time in human history. From this are drawn implications for the community of FTA practitioners. The biggest challenge i...

  2. The Future of Virtual Reality in Education: A Future Oriented Meta Analysis of the Literature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Passig, David

    2009-01-01

    Many have elaborated on the potential of virtual reality (VR) in learning. This article attempts at organizing the literature in this issue in order to better identify indicators that can account for future valid trends, and seeks to bring to attention how authors who wrote about the future of VR in education confused futures' terms and produced…

  3. Comparative analysis of coolants for FBR of future nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toshinsky, G.I.; Grigoryev, O.G.; Pylchenkov, E.H.; Skorikov, D.E.; Komkova, O.I.

    2001-01-01

    Selection of a fast reactor (FR) coolant for future nuclear reactors is a complex task that has not a single solution. Safety requirements are expected to grow in the future. The requirements to FR are reconsidered. Gradual transition from the FR as a builder up of plutonium to the FR as an economically effective energy source, is taking place. Among all types of coolants viable for FR, LMC (light molten salt coolants) cover the most complete range of requirements to advanced reactors and have a complete database. Sodium and lead-bismuth coolant (LBC) are selected because there is a complete package of technologies for their handling. Heavy liquid metal coolant (HLMC), being at a disadvantage of heat transfer rate in relation to sodium, make it possible to give the inherent safety properties to the reactor and, as a result, to simplify essentially the reactor design and its safety systems. This results in capital and costs reduction. Neutronic characteristics of HLMC cooled reactors make possible to transmute their own minor actinides (MA) safely, and LBC cooled reactors are able to transmute LWR'MA with high safety characteristics. Basing on the comparison carried out, it can be concluded, that both LBC and sodium are perspective coolants for future FR

  4. Comparative analysis of coolants for FBR of future nuclear power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toshinsky, G.I.; Grigoryev, O.G.; Pylchenkov, E.H.; Skorikov, D.E.; Komkova, O.I. [State Scientific Center of Russian Federation, Institute for Physics and Power Engineering named after Academician A.I. Leipusky, Kaluga Region (Russian Federation)

    2001-07-01

    Selection of a fast reactor (FR) coolant for future nuclear reactors is a complex task that has not a single solution. Safety requirements are expected to grow in the future. The requirements to FR are reconsidered. Gradual transition from the FR as a builder up of plutonium to the FR as an economically effective energy source, is taking place. Among all types of coolants viable for FR, LMC (light molten salt coolants) cover the most complete range of requirements to advanced reactors and have a complete database. Sodium and lead-bismuth coolant (LBC) are selected because there is a complete package of technologies for their handling. Heavy liquid metal coolant (HLMC), being at a disadvantage of heat transfer rate in relation to sodium, make it possible to give the inherent safety properties to the reactor and, as a result, to simplify essentially the reactor design and its safety systems. This results in capital and costs reduction. Neutronic characteristics of HLMC cooled reactors make possible to transmute their own minor actinides (MA) safely, and LBC cooled reactors are able to transmute LWR'MA with high safety characteristics. Basing on the comparison carried out, it can be concluded, that both LBC and sodium are perspective coolants for future FR.

  5. The present and future on surface analysis for corrosion study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohtsuka, Toshiaki

    2015-01-01

    Surface analysis for corrosion study was reviewed. For the study, the in-situ analysis was desired to describe the real feature. Light i.e., electromagnetic wave from gamma rays to infrared light has been used for the in-situ measurement of the corroded surface, although various ideas should be introduced for the study. For the application of the electromagnetic waves, a suitable window material and a suitable distance between the window and specimen surface depending on the properties of the wave must be selected. Electron spectroscopy including X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and Auger electron spectroscopy (AES) is not applicable for the in-situ study and, however, it is very available for the corrosion study from the following points; elemental analysis, state analysis of the element, and microscopic analysis. In future, the tip enhance Raman scattering (TERS) for which the scanning probe microscopy (SPM) is combined with the surface enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) may be useful for the in-situ corrosion study. (author)

  6. Challenges of Future VANET and Cloud-Based Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakesh Shrestha

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs have been studied intensively due to their wide variety of applications and services, such as passenger safety, enhanced traffic efficiency, and infotainment. With the evolution of technology and sudden growth in the number of smart vehicles, traditional VANETs face several technical challenges in deployment and management due to less flexibility, scalability, poor connectivity, and inadequate intelligence. Cloud computing is considered a way to satisfy these requirements in VANETs. However, next-generation VANETs will have special requirements of autonomous vehicles with high mobility, low latency, real-time applications, and connectivity, which may not be resolved by conventional cloud computing. Hence, merging of fog computing with the conventional cloud for VANETs is discussed as a potential solution for several issues in current and future VANETs. In addition, fog computing can be enhanced by integrating Software-Defined Network (SDN, which provides flexibility, programmability, and global knowledge of the network. We present two example scenarios for timely dissemination of safety messages in future VANETs based on fog and a combination of fog and SDN. We also explained the issues that need to be resolved for the deployment of three different cloud-based approaches.

  7. Future of photorefractive based holographic 3D display

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanche, P.-A.; Bablumian, A.; Voorakaranam, R.; Christenson, C.; Lemieux, D.; Thomas, J.; Norwood, R. A.; Yamamoto, M.; Peyghambarian, N.

    2010-02-01

    The very first demonstration of our refreshable holographic display based on photorefractive polymer was published in Nature early 20081. Based on the unique properties of a new organic photorefractive material and the holographic stereography technique, this display addressed a gap between large static holograms printed in permanent media (photopolymers) and small real time holographic systems like the MIT holovideo. Applications range from medical imaging to refreshable maps and advertisement. Here we are presenting several technical solutions for improving the performance parameters of the initial display from an optical point of view. Full color holograms can be generated thanks to angular multiplexing, the recording time can be reduced from minutes to seconds with a pulsed laser, and full parallax hologram can be recorded in a reasonable time thanks to parallel writing. We also discuss the future of such a display and the possibility of video rate.

  8. Sustainability of plant-based diets: back to the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabaté, Joan; Soret, Sam

    2014-07-01

    Plant-based diets in comparison to diets rich in animal products are more sustainable because they use many fewer natural resources and are less taxing on the environment. Given the global population explosion and increase in wealth, there is an increased demand for foods of animal origin. Environmental data are rapidly accumulating on the unsustainability of current worldwide food consumption practices that are high in meat and dairy products. Natural nonrenewable resources are becoming scarce, and environmental degradation is rapidly increasing. At the current trends of food consumption and environmental changes, food security and food sustainability are on a collision course. Changing course (to avoid the collision) will require extreme downward shifts in meat and dairy consumption by large segments of the world's population. Other approaches such as food waste reduction and precision agriculture and/or other technological advances have to be simultaneously pursued; however, they are insufficient to make the global food system sustainable. For millennia, meatless diets have been advocated on the basis of values, and large segments of the world population have thrived on plant-based diets. "Going back" to plant-based diets worldwide seems to be a reasonable alternative for a sustainable future. Policies in favor of the global adoption of plant-based diets will simultaneously optimize the food supply, health, environmental, and social justice outcomes for the world's population. Implementing such nutrition policy is perhaps one of the most rational and moral paths for a sustainable future of the human race and other living creatures of the biosphere that we share. © 2014 American Society for Nutrition.

  9. Base technology approaches in materials research for future nuclear applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kondo, Tatsuo

    1992-01-01

    In the development of advanced nuclear systems for future, majority of critical issues in material research and development are more or less related with the effects of neutron irradiation. The approaches to those issues in the past have been mainly concerned with interpretation of the facts and minor modification of existing materials, having been inevitably of passive nature. In combating against predicted complex effects arising from variety of critical parameters, approaches must be reviewed more strategically. Some attempts of shifting research programs to such a direction have been made at JAERI in the Base (Common) Technology Programs either by adding to or restructuring the existing tasks. Major tasks currently in progress after the reorientation are categorized in several disciplines including new tasks for material innovation and concept development for neutron sources. The efforts have been set forth since 1988, and a few of them are now mature to transfer to the tasks in the projects of advanced reactors. The paper reviews the status of some typical activities emphasizing the effects of the reorientation and possible extensions of the outcomes to future applications. (author)

  10. The future use of pathway analysis in IAEA safeguards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Budlong Sylvester, Kory; Pilat, J.; Murphy, Chantell

    2013-01-01

    Pathway analysis has the potential to play an important role in the development of a safeguards system that is more information driven, leveraging all the information available to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Pathway analysis should be seen as an extension of traditional hypothesis testing used by the Agency in the past. The most attractive pathways based on the assessed capabilities of a given state can be identified and used in the development of state-level safeguards approaches. This ranking of pathways can be revised based on evidence of pathway use, or preparations for use, allowing limited safeguards resources to flow to the areas of highest concern. The possible uses of pathway analysis in the implementation of the IAEA's state-level concept are described along with implementation issues that will likely arise. The paper is followed by the slides of the presentation. (authors)

  11. Lipid Based Nanosystems for Curcumin: Past, Present and Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayak, Aditya P; Mills, Tom; Norton, Ian

    2016-01-01

    Curcumin is one of the principle bioactive compounds used in the ayurvedic medicine system that has the history of over 5000 years for human use. Curcumin an "Indian Gold" is used to treat simple ailments like the common cold to severe life threatening diseases like cancer, and HIV. Though its contribution is immense for the health protection and disease prevention, its clinical use is limited due to its susceptible nature to alkaline pH, high temperature, presence of oxygen and light. Hence it becomes extremely difficult to maintain its bioactivity during processing, storage and consumption. Recent advancements in the application of nanotechnology to curcumin offer an opportunity to enhance its stability, bioactivity and to overcome its pharmacokinetic mismatch. This in turn helps to bridge the gaps that exist between its bench top research data to its clinical findings. Among the various types of nano/micro delivery systems, lipid based delivery systems are well studied and are the best suited delivery systems to enhance the stability and pharmacokinetic profile of curcumin both for pharma and the food application. In the current review, effort will be made to recapitulate the work done in the past to use lipid based delivery systems (liposomes, solid lipid nanoparticles, and emulsions) to enhance the application of curcumin for health promotion and disease prevention. Further, future prospects for the utilization of these lipid-based delivery systems will be discussed in detail.

  12. Cardiovascular imaging environment: will the future be cloud-based?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawel-Boehm, Nadine; Bluemke, David A

    2017-07-01

    In cardiovascular CT and MR imaging large datasets have to be stored, post-processed, analyzed and distributed. Beside basic assessment of volume and function in cardiac magnetic resonance imaging e.g., more sophisticated quantitative analysis is requested requiring specific software. Several institutions cannot afford various types of software and provide expertise to perform sophisticated analysis. Areas covered: Various cloud services exist related to data storage and analysis specifically for cardiovascular CT and MR imaging. Instead of on-site data storage, cloud providers offer flexible storage services on a pay-per-use basis. To avoid purchase and maintenance of specialized software for cardiovascular image analysis, e.g. to assess myocardial iron overload, MR 4D flow and fractional flow reserve, evaluation can be performed with cloud based software by the consumer or complete analysis is performed by the cloud provider. However, challenges to widespread implementation of cloud services include regulatory issues regarding patient privacy and data security. Expert commentary: If patient privacy and data security is guaranteed cloud imaging is a valuable option to cope with storage of large image datasets and offer sophisticated cardiovascular image analysis for institutions of all sizes.

  13. Towards cloud based big data analytics for smart future cities

    OpenAIRE

    Khan, Zaheer; Anjum, Ashiq; Soomro, Kamran; Tahir, Muhammad

    2015-01-01

    A large amount of land-use, environment, socio-economic, energy and transport data is generated in cities. An integrated perspective of managing and analysing such big data can answer a number of science, policy, planning, governance and business questions and support decision making in enabling a smarter environment. This paper presents a theoretical and experimental perspective on the smart cities focused big data management and analysis by proposing a cloud-based analytics service. A proto...

  14. Probabilistic Decision Based Block Partitioning for Future Video Coding

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Zhao

    2017-11-29

    In the latest Joint Video Exploration Team development, the quadtree plus binary tree (QTBT) block partitioning structure has been proposed for future video coding. Compared to the traditional quadtree structure of High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC) standard, QTBT provides more flexible patterns for splitting the blocks, which results in dramatically increased combinations of block partitions and high computational complexity. In view of this, a confidence interval based early termination (CIET) scheme is proposed for QTBT to identify the unnecessary partition modes in the sense of rate-distortion (RD) optimization. In particular, a RD model is established to predict the RD cost of each partition pattern without the full encoding process. Subsequently, the mode decision problem is casted into a probabilistic framework to select the final partition based on the confidence interval decision strategy. Experimental results show that the proposed CIET algorithm can speed up QTBT block partitioning structure by reducing 54.7% encoding time with only 1.12% increase in terms of bit rate. Moreover, the proposed scheme performs consistently well for the high resolution sequences, of which the video coding efficiency is crucial in real applications.

  15. Tests of gravity with future space-based experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakstein, Jeremy

    2018-03-01

    Future space-based tests of relativistic gravitation—laser ranging to Phobos, accelerometers in orbit, and optical networks surrounding Earth—will constrain the theory of gravity with unprecedented precision by testing the inverse-square law, the strong and weak equivalence principles, and the deflection and time delay of light by massive bodies. In this paper, we estimate the bounds that could be obtained on alternative gravity theories that use screening mechanisms to suppress deviations from general relativity in the Solar System: chameleon, symmetron, and Galileon models. We find that space-based tests of the parametrized post-Newtonian parameter γ will constrain chameleon and symmetron theories to new levels, and that tests of the inverse-square law using laser ranging to Phobos will provide the most stringent constraints on Galileon theories to date. We end by discussing the potential for constraining these theories using upcoming tests of the weak equivalence principle, and conclude that further theoretical modeling is required in order to fully utilize the data.

  16. Omics-based nanomedicine: the future of personalized oncology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenblum, Daniel; Peer, Dan

    2014-09-28

    The traditional "one treatment fits all" paradigm disregards the heterogeneity between cancer patients, and within a particular tumor, thus limit the success of common treatments. Moreover, current treatment lacks specificity and therefore most of the anticancer drugs induce severe adverse effects. Personalized medicine aims to individualize therapeutic interventions, based on the growing knowledge of the human multiple '-oms' (e.g. genome, epigenome, transcriptome, proteome and metabolome), which has led to the discovery of various biomarkers that can be used to detect early stage cancers and predict tumor progression, drug response, and clinical outcome. Nanomedicine, the application of nanotechnology to healthcare, holds great promise for revolutionizing disease management such as drug delivery, molecular imaging, reduced adverse effects and the ability to contain both therapeutic and diagnostic modalities simultaneously termed theranostics. Personalizednanomedicine has the power of combining nanomedicine with clinical and molecular biomarkers ("OMICS" data) achieving improve prognosis and disease management as well as individualized drug selection and dosage profiling to ensure maximal efficacy and safety. Tumor's heterogeneity sets a countless challenge for future personalized therapy in cancer, however the use of multi-parameter 'omic's data for specific molecular biomarkers recognition together with versatile drug delivery nanocarriers, which could target concomitantly and specifically tumor cells subpopulations, might heralds a brighter future for personalized cancer management. In this review, we present the current leading technologies available for personalized oncology. We discusses the immense potential of combining the best of these two worlds, nanomedicine and high throughput OMICS technologies to pave the way towards cancer personalized medicine. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Distributed, price-based control approach to market-based operation of future power systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jokic, A.; Bosch, van den P.P.J.; Hermans, R.M.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we present, discuss and illustrate on examples the price-based control paradigm as a suitable approach to solve some of the challenging problems facing future, market-based power systems. It is illustrated how global objectives and constraints are optimally translated into time-varying

  18. Accelerator-based neutron source and its future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiyanagi, Yoshiaki

    2008-01-01

    Neutrons are useful tool for the material science and also for the industrial applications. Now, high intensity neutron sources based on MW class big accelerators are under commissioning in Japan, Japan Spallation Neutron Source (JSNS) at J-PARC and in the US, SNS. Such high power neutron sources required the moderators that can be used under high radiation field and also give high neutronic performance. We have been performing experimental and Monte Carlo simulation studies to develop the cold neutron moderator systems for the high power sources since it is becoming important for materials and life science. Hydrogen is the unique candidate at the present stage due to its high resistibility to the radiation. It was indicated the para hydrogen moderator gave a good neutronic performance by experimental results. On the other hand, in the future, low power neutron sources are recognized to be useful to perform sprouting experiments and to promote the neutron science. The moderator systems need a concept different from the high power source. Therefore, we studied neutronic performances of the mesitylene and the methane moderators to get high intensity in a definite area on the moderator surface. Single groove moderators were studied and optimal geometry and the intensity gain were obtained. The mesitylene moderator gave a rather good performance compared to the methane moderator. (author)

  19. Perovskite-Based Solar Cells: Materials, Methods, and Future Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Di Zhou

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel all-solid-state, hybrid solar cell based on organic-inorganic metal halide perovskite (CH3NH3PbX3 materials has attracted great attention from the researchers all over the world and is considered to be one of the top 10 scientific breakthroughs in 2013. The perovskite materials can be used not only as light-absorbing layer, but also as an electron/hole transport layer due to the advantages of its high extinction coefficient, high charge mobility, long carrier lifetime, and long carrier diffusion distance. The photoelectric power conversion efficiency of the perovskite solar cells has increased from 3.8% in 2009 to 22.1% in 2016, making perovskite solar cells the best potential candidate for the new generation of solar cells to replace traditional silicon solar cells in the future. In this paper, we introduce the development and mechanism of perovskite solar cells, describe the specific function of each layer, and focus on the improvement in the function of such layers and its influence on the cell performance. Next, the synthesis methods of the perovskite light-absorbing layer and the performance characteristics are discussed. Finally, the challenges and prospects for the development of perovskite solar cells are also briefly presented.

  20. Current advances and future perspectives in extrusion-based bioprinting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozbolat, Ibrahim T; Hospodiuk, Monika

    2016-01-01

    Extrusion-based bioprinting (EBB) is a rapidly growing technology that has made substantial progress during the last decade. It has great versatility in printing various biologics, including cells, tissues, tissue constructs, organ modules and microfluidic devices, in applications from basic research and pharmaceutics to clinics. Despite the great benefits and flexibility in printing a wide range of bioinks, including tissue spheroids, tissue strands, cell pellets, decellularized matrix components, micro-carriers and cell-laden hydrogels, the technology currently faces several limitations and challenges. These include impediments to organ fabrication, the limited resolution of printed features, the need for advanced bioprinting solutions to transition the technology bench to bedside, the necessity of new bioink development for rapid, safe and sustainable delivery of cells in a biomimetically organized microenvironment, and regulatory concerns to transform the technology into a product. This paper, presenting a first-time comprehensive review of EBB, discusses the current advancements in EBB technology and highlights future directions to transform the technology to generate viable end products for tissue engineering and regenerative medicine. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Chemical compound-based direct reprogramming for future clinical applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeda, Yukimasa; Harada, Yoshinori; Yoshikawa, Toshikazu; Dai, Ping

    2018-01-01

    Recent studies have revealed that a combination of chemical compounds enables direct reprogramming from one somatic cell type into another without the use of transgenes by regulating cellular signaling pathways and epigenetic modifications. The generation of induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cells generally requires virus vector-mediated expression of multiple transcription factors, which might disrupt genomic integrity and proper cell functions. The direct reprogramming is a promising alternative to rapidly prepare different cell types by bypassing the pluripotent state. Because the strategy also depends on forced expression of exogenous lineage-specific transcription factors, the direct reprogramming in a chemical compound-based manner is an ideal approach to further reduce the risk for tumorigenesis. So far, a number of reported research efforts have revealed that combinations of chemical compounds and cell-type specific medium transdifferentiate somatic cells into desired cell types including neuronal cells, glial cells, neural stem cells, brown adipocytes, cardiomyocytes, somatic progenitor cells, and pluripotent stem cells. These desired cells rapidly converted from patient-derived autologous fibroblasts can be applied for their own transplantation therapy to avoid immune rejection. However, complete chemical compound-induced conversions remain challenging particularly in adult human-derived fibroblasts compared with mouse embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs). This review summarizes up-to-date progress in each specific cell type and discusses prospects for future clinical application toward cell transplantation therapy. PMID:29739872

  2. [An analysis of the Ministry of Health of Brazil investments in research and development between 2000-2002: a base line towards future valuations beginning with the implementation of the National Health Research Priority Agenda].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caetano, Rosângela; Vianna, Cid Manso de Mello; Sampaio, Mariana Miranda Autran; da Silva, Rondineli Mendes; Rodrigues, Rodolfo Rego Deusdará

    2010-07-01

    The aim of this paper is to examine the Ministry of Health of Brazil investments in research and development in health (R&D/H) between the years of 2000-2002, trying to contrast them with the items of the National Health Research Priority Agenda, in order to attempt a base line that makes capable future evaluations on the inductor role. The data was collected by a research carried out with the main goal of measure resources invested in R&D/H in the country on the period, considering only the Ministry of Health investments. The researches were independently categorized by 2 researchers based on 24 subdivisions which compose the Agenda. The amount of the resources invested by the Ministry of Health on the period was of R$ 199.3 millions. Most of the expense was related to researches in transmittable diseases (31.5%), followed by systems and policies in health (16.3%) and communication and information in health (8.6%). Conditions that represent a substantial disease burden (non transmittable diseases, mental health, violence, accidents and traumas, elderly person health) received relative small amount of resource. The work establishes a starting point from which managers of scientific and technological policy may assess the progressive influence of the Agenda and the reduction of the identified imbalances.

  3. Regional analysis of drought and heat impacts on forests: current and future science directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, Beverly E

    2014-12-01

    Accurate assessments of forest response to current and future climate and human actions are needed at regional scales. Predicting future impacts on forests will require improved analysis of species-level adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability to mortality. Land system models can be enhanced by creating trait-based groupings of species that better represent climate sensitivity, such as risk of hydraulic failure from drought. This emphasizes the need for more coordinated in situ and remote sensing observations to track changes in ecosystem function, and to improve model inputs, spatio-temporal diagnosis, and predictions of future conditions, including implications of actions to mitigate climate change. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Spatio-temporal model based optimization framework to design future hydrogen infrastructure networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konda, N.V.S.; Shah, N.; Brandon, N.P.

    2009-01-01

    A mixed integer programming (MIP) spatio-temporal model was used to design hydrogen infrastructure networks for the Netherlands. The detailed economic analysis was conducted using a multi-echelon model of the entire hydrogen supply chain, including feed, production, storage, and transmission-distribution systems. The study considered various near-future and commercially available technologies. A multi-period model was used to design evolutionary hydrogen supply networks in coherence with growing demand. A scenario-based analysis was conducted in order to account for uncertainties in future demand. The study showed that competitive hydrogen networks can be designed for any conceivable scenario. It was concluded that the multi-period model presented significant advantages in relation to decision-making over long time-horizons

  5. Demographic Analysis and Planning for the Future. No. 13.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efird, Cathy M.

    The basic sources and types of demographic data available for future planning for the developmentally disabled are reviewed and a frame work for data organization is suggested. It is explained that future forecasts may be undertaken by the following principles: trend forecasting or extrapolation; scenario construction; models, games, and…

  6. Development and Validation of A Nuclear Fuel Cycle Analysis Tool: A FUTURE Code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, S. K.; Ko, W. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Yoon Hee [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    This paper presents the development and validation methods of the FUTURE (FUel cycle analysis Tool for nUcleaR Energy) code, which was developed for a dynamic material flow evaluation and economic analysis of the nuclear fuel cycle. This code enables an evaluation of a nuclear material flow and its economy for diverse nuclear fuel cycles based on a predictable scenario. The most notable virtue of this FUTURE code, which was developed using C and MICROSOFT SQL DBMS, is that a program user can design a nuclear fuel cycle process easily using a standard process on the canvas screen through a drag-and-drop method. From the user's point of view, this code is very easy to use thanks to its high flexibility. In addition, the new code also enables the maintenance of data integrity by constructing a database environment of the results of the nuclear fuel cycle analyses.

  7. DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE ANALYSIS TOOL: A FUTURE CODE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.K. KIM

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the development and validation methods of the FUTURE (FUel cycle analysis Tool for nUcleaR Energy code, which was developed for a dynamic material flow evaluation and economic analysis of the nuclear fuel cycle. This code enables an evaluation of a nuclear material flow and its economy for diverse nuclear fuel cycles based on a predictable scenario. The most notable virtue of this FUTURE code, which was developed using C# and MICROSOFT SQL DBMS, is that a program user can design a nuclear fuel cycle process easily using a standard process on the canvas screen through a drag-and-drop method. From the user's point of view, this code is very easy to use thanks to its high flexibility. In addition, the new code also enables the maintenance of data integrity by constructing a database environment of the results of the nuclear fuel cycle analyses.

  8. Designing a future Conditions Database based on LHC experience

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(INSPIRE)INSPIRE-00064378; Formica, Andrea; Gallas, Elizabeth; Lehmann Miotto, Giovanna; Pfeiffer, A.; Govi, G.

    2015-01-01

    We describe a proposal for a new Conditions Database infrastructure that ATLAS and CMS (or other) experiments could use starting on the timescale of Run 3. This proposal is based on the experience that both experiments accumulated during Run 1. We will present the identified relevant data flows for conditions data and underline the common use cases that lead to a joint effort for the development of a new system. Conditions data are needed in any scientific experiment. It includes any ancillary data associated with primary data taking such as detector configuration, state or calibration or the environment in which the detector is operating. In any non-trivial experiment, conditions data typically reside outside the primary data store for various reasons (size, complexity or availability) and are best accessed at the point of processing or analysis (including for Monte Carlo simulations). The ability of any experiment to produce correct and timely results depends on the complete and efficient availability of ne...

  9. Patent based innovation and development: issues, challenges and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noraini Ibrahim

    2001-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to analyse the extent to which science and technology (S and T) policy has been integrated to patent based innovation within the context of national development objective. Could the institutionalisation of patent based innovation in Malaysia be effectively implemented ? The main argument is that patent based innovation must be integrated into the national S and T policy as a dynamic and proactive system. This paper argued that the dependency has an effect to the consequent of relationship imbalance between Malaysia and advanced nations as the main technology supplier within the international business economy. This paper adopts the interdisciplinary of social sciences using system-oriented analysis. The objective of the S and T is to enhance the capacity of national S and T resources as well as to develop the capacity of the local to select, negotiate, adopt, modify, and improve imported technology. Nevertheless, even though the S and T policy was launched in 1986, the impetus of government commitment towards the realisation of S and T policy became more pronounced only in the middle of the 90s. The Ministry of Sciences, Technology and Environment recognises the importance of creating a climate of science and technology as a critical prerequisite for national development. Various activities at the state and national levels have been organised to promote awareness and adoption of technology to the community. The Ministry that acts as the secretariat to the National Science and Development Council aims to reinforce the foundation based on S and T activities. Malaysia also should encourage activities that general technical innovations that would be integrated into patent based innovation as one of the component in the national innovation system. While this is so, an effective assimilation of technical innovation that is developed within the framework of the national innovation system is yet to be realised. Patent based innovation as a

  10. Modeling of Future Initial Teacher of Foreign Language Training, Using Situation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryana М. Sidun

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The article discloses the content of modeling of future initial teacher of foreign language, using situation analysis, defines the stages of modeling during the professional competence formation of future teacher of foreign language: preparatory, analytical and executive.

  11. An analysis of China's coal supply and its impact on China's future economic growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Jianliang; Feng, Lianyong; Tverberg, Gail E.

    2013-01-01

    Many people believe that China's economic growth can continue almost indefinitely. For a manufacturing-based economy such as China's to continue to grow, it needs an adequate supply of inexpensive energy. To date, this energy growth has primarily come from coal, but China's indigenous coal supplies are now falling short of the amount needed to support this growth. In this situation, the status of China's future coal supply will be very important for China's future economic development. Our analysis shows that China's ultimate recoverable coal reserves equal 223.6×10 9 MT, and its production will peak between 2025 and 2030, with peak production of approximately 3.9×10 9 MT. The extent to which China can import coal in the future is uncertain. With rising coal demand, this combination is likely to create a significant challenge to China's future economic development. - Highlights: ► We analyze an issue of prime importance for the future of China's economy. ► The decline in coal supply will present a challenge to China's economic growth. ► Rising coal price will also have an adverse impact on economic growth

  12. Futures Business Models for an IoT Enabled Healthcare Sector: A Causal Layered Analysis Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Julius Francis Gomes; Sara Moqaddemerad

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To facilitate futures business research by proposing a novel way to combine business models as a conceptual tool with futures research techniques. Design: A futures perspective is adopted to foresight business models of the Internet of Things (IoT) enabled healthcare sector by using business models as a futures business research tool. In doing so, business models is coupled with one of the most prominent foresight methodologies, Causal Layered Analysis (CLA). Qualitative analysis...

  13. Introduction to a special section: Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Karel Haegeman; Jennifer C Harper; Ron Johnston

    2010-01-01

    Experiences of recent years place a premium, for governments and individuals, on being able to discern the possible shape of the future: what is likely to influence it, and what can be done to prepare for it. This special section is based on selected papers from the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis, held 16–17 October 2008 at Seville, Spain, which addressed the challenge of increasing the impact of future-oriented technology analysis on policy and dec...

  14. Anticipating the use of future things: towards a framework for prospective use analysis in innovation design projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Julien; Buisine, Stéphanie; Aoussat, Améziane

    2013-11-01

    Anticipation of future product use is a persistent issue in User-Centered Design. In this paper, we argue that one obstacle to early integration of use analysis in innovation design is overreliance on retrospective use analysis, i.e. that which is based on clear references to existing products or activities. In contrast, innovation design projects are full of uncertainty, leading to a need for prospective analysis. After having described some limitations of prospective use analysis, we contend that creativity tools may be used to assist the anticipation of future product use, by allowing designers to approach the variability of situations of future use in a structured manner rather than by "muddling through". We illustrate the expected benefits of this approach with two case studies, and describe some prospects for future research and practice in ergonomics. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  15. Trend analysis of mortality rates and causes of death in children under 5 years old in Beijing, China from 1992 to 2015 and forecast of mortality into the future: an entire population-based epidemiological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Han; Wang, Jing; Li, Yichen; Li, Dongyang; Guo, Jin; Hu, Yifei; Meng, Kai; He, Dian; Liu, Bin; Liu, Zheng; Qi, Han; Zhang, Ling

    2017-09-18

    To analyse trends in mortality and causes of death among children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China between 1992 and 2015 and to forecast under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) for the period 2016-2020. An entire population-based epidemiological study was conducted. Data collection was based on the Child Death Reporting Card of the Beijing Under-5 Mortality Rate Surveillance Network. Trends in mortality and leading causes of death were analysed using the χ 2 test and SPSS 19.0 software. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was fitted to forecast U5MRs between 2016 and 2020 using the EViews 8.0 software. Mortality in neonates, infants and children aged under 5 years decreased by 84.06%, 80.04% and 80.17% from 1992 to 2015, respectively. However, the U5MR increased by 7.20% from 2013 to 2015. Birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities comprised the top five causes of death. The greatest, most rapid reduction was that of pneumonia by 92.26%, with an annual average rate of reduction of 10.53%. The distribution of causes of death differed among children of different ages. Accidental asphyxia and sepsis were among the top five causes of death in children aged 28 days to 1 year and accident was among the top five causes in children aged 1-4 years. The U5MRs in Beijing are projected to be 2.88‰, 2.87‰, 2.90‰, 2.97‰ and 3.09‰ for the period 2016-2020, based on the predictive model. Beijing has made considerable progress in reducing U5MRs from 1992 to 2015. However, U5MRs could show a slight upward trend from 2016 to 2020. Future considerations for child healthcare include the management of birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities. Specific preventative measures should be implemented for children of various age groups. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All

  16. DTI analysis methods : Voxel-based analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Hecke, Wim; Leemans, Alexander; Emsell, Louise

    2016-01-01

    Voxel-based analysis (VBA) of diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) data permits the investigation of voxel-wise differences or changes in DTI metrics in every voxel of a brain dataset. It is applied primarily in the exploratory analysis of hypothesized group-level alterations in DTI parameters, as it does

  17. EnerFuture: Long Term Energy Scenarios 'Understanding our energy future'. Key graphs and analysis, Enerdata - Global Energy Forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    Enerdata analyses 4 future energy scenarios accounting for 2 economic growth assumptions combined with 2 alternative carbon emission mitigation policies. In this study, a series of analyses supported by graphs assess the energy consumption and intensity forecasts in emerging and developed markets. In particular, one analysis is dedicated to energies competition, including gas, coal and renewable energies. (authors)

  18. Microbeam X-ray analysis in Poland - past and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kusinski, J

    2010-01-01

    The article provides an overview of the development of electron beam X-ray microanalysis (EPMA) in Poland. Since the introduction by Prof. Bojarski of EMPA over 45 years ago, tremendous advances in methodologies and in instrumentation have been made in order to improve the precision of quantitative compositional analysis, spatial resolution and analytical sensitivity. This was possible due to the activity of Applied Crystallography Committee at the Polish Academy of Sciences, as well as the groups of researches working in the Institute for Ferrous Metallurgy (Gliwice), the Technical University of Warsaw, the Silesian Technical University (Katowice), the AGH-University of Sciences and Technology (Krakow), and the Institute of Materials Science and Metallurgy Polish Academy of Sciences (Krakow). Based on the research examples realized by these teams, conferences, seminars and congresses organized, as well as books and academic textbooks issued, the evolution of electron beam X-ray microanalysis in Poland is demonstrated.

  19. ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED PRICE DYNAMICS BETWEEN FLUID MILK FUTURES CONTRACTS AND CASH PRICES FOR FLUID MILK

    OpenAIRE

    T. Randall FORTENBERY; Robert A. CROPP; Hector O. ZAPATA

    1997-01-01

    The objective of this study is to provide an empirical evaluation of the expected relationship between cash and futures prices for fluid milk. This is done using historic cash prices from 1988 to 1995, and making inferences about how futures prices would have behaved if they had traded during this sample period. Futures prices are simulated over the sample period based on two assumptions about futures market behavior for fluid milk. The first is that the futures market will essentially price ...

  20. A model-based analysis for the improvement of electrical energy supply of future offshore windparks by means of biogas technology; Modellbasierte Analyse zur Verbesserung der elektrischen Energiebereitstellung zukuenftiger Offshore-Windparks mittels Biogastechnologie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tigges, Martin

    2010-09-06

    Since the beginning of industrial revolution energy supply in Germany was based on fossil fuels. Climatic change, the greenhouse effect, the growth of population on the one hand and shortage on fossil fuels on the other hand and the will to be independent from importing resources from political instable countries are calling for serious changes. The primary modernisation of the current energy supply needs to target a sustainable, generation comprehensive solution. The use of renewable fuels is necessary. Wind energy usage is one of the most promising alternatives within the short-term to middle-term planning of environmental policy. As in Germany nearly all potential habitats on mainland already are tapped, significant development potential is seen at offshore habitats in North as well as Baltic Sea. Germany aims for the allotment of up to 25 GW of offshore wind energy in the North and Baltic Sea till 2025. Electricity generation by wind energy plants subjects to the conditions the volatile characteristics of the wind. Within the planned big offshore wind energy farms comprising more than 80 plants changes in wind velocity as well as directions will lead to fluctuations in energy supply. Up to now the plant resource scheduling needed to react on the users demand. The further development of wind energy and the differences between forecasted and actual wind energy feeds do and will hinder this resource scheduling. New approaches need to be found to be able to ensure the security of energy supplies in Germany. These approaches should be sustainable and therefore be based on the usage of renewable fuels. Within this dissertation possible solutions as well as constraints of the usage of biogas as a nearly CO2 neutral fuel in combination with micro gas turbines adapted to the usage with biogas plants to be able to align the differences between forecasted and actual wind energy supply for a future offshore wind energy plant park are analysed. This combination allows an

  1. The future value of smart grids in the German electricity system. A model-based scenario analysis from 2010 to 2030; Der zukuenftige Wert von Smart Grids im deutschen Stromsystem. Eine modellgestuetzte Szenarienanalyse von 2010 bis 2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koch, Matthias; Bauknecht, Dierk; Heinemann, Christoph [Oeko-Institut e.V., Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany)

    2012-07-01

    Within the E-Energy project eTelligence the effects of decentralized flexibility, provided by smart grids, have been evaluated for Germany within a model based scenario analysis for the time horizon 2010 to 2030. The observed effects include the dispatch of conventional power plants as well as the integration of renewable energies in the electricity system. The model results show to what extent decentralized flexibility can be used to integrate additional electricity supply from renewable energies, which has to be curtailed otherwise. Costs and CO{sub 2} emissions from power plants as well as the average electricity spot market price decrease at the same time. Furthermore it becomes apparent that the benefit from smart grids increases with the development of variable renewable energies, depending on the development of other flexibility options. (orig.)

  2. COMPUGIRLS: Stepping Stone to Future Computer-Based Technology Pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jieun; Husman, Jenefer; Scott, Kimberly A.; Eggum-Wilkens, Natalie D.

    2015-01-01

    The COMPUGIRLS: Culturally relevant technology program for adolescent girls was developed to promote underrepresented girls' future possible selves and career pathways in computer-related technology fields. We hypothesized that the COMPUGIRLS would promote academic possible selves and self-regulation to achieve these possible selves. We compared…

  3. Future directions of accelerator-based NP and HEP facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roser, T.

    2011-07-24

    Progress in particle and nuclear physics has been closely connected to the progress in accelerator technologies - a connection that is highly beneficial to both fields. This paper presents a review of the present and future facilities and accelerator technologies that will push the frontiers of high-energy particle interactions and high intensity secondary particle beams.

  4. Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis of agricultural futures markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Lingyun; Chen Shupeng

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → We investigated cross-correlations between China's and US agricultural futures markets. → Power-law cross-correlations are found between the geographically far but correlated markets. → Multifractal features are significant in all the markets. → Cross-correlation exponent is less than averaged GHE when q 0. - Abstract: We investigated geographically far but temporally correlated China's and US agricultural futures markets. We found that there exists a power-law cross-correlation between them, and that multifractal features are significant in all the markets. It is very interesting that the geographically far markets show strong cross-correlations and share much of their multifractal structure. Furthermore, we found that for all the agricultural futures markets in our studies, the cross-correlation exponent is less than the averaged generalized Hurst exponents (GHE) when q 0.

  5. Multivariate analysis of attitudes on financial and other aspects of business ethics of future managers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blaženka Knežević

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Business ethics is a set of rules by which individuals and institutions behave and conduct business in a responsible manner. It involves appropriate constraints on the pursuit of self-interest and profits, particularly when actions affect other stakeholders. Research on financial and other aspects of business ethics includes an examination of personal attitudes which give insight into ways in which people tend to behave as employees, managers, taxpayers and consumers. In this research, the standard ATBEQ questionnaire was extended with five variables covering corporate social responsibility and applied to a sample of business administration students in Croatia. The aim of the research was to identify groups of future managers based on an evaluation of their attitudes on business ethics and corporate social responsibility. The analysis was divided into two parts. In the first part, factor analysis was performed on 35 variables (attitudes relating to business ethics and corporate social responsibility. Six factors were extracted and factor scores were calculated. In the second part, hierarchical and non-hierarchical cluster analyses were conducted. Factor scores were used as input data for the cluster analysis. Firstly, the hierarchical cluster analysis was run on the calculated factor scores. According to the dendrogram, a three-cluster solution was chosen. The non-hierarchical cluster analysis was then used to improve the results of the hierarchical cluster solution. Finally, these clusters (groups of future managers were characterised according to their attitudes on financial and other aspects of business ethics and corporate social responsibility.

  6. Analysis of the efficiency of the Iberian power futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capitan Herraiz, Alvaro; Rodriguez Monroy, Carlos

    2009-01-01

    Market efficiency is analysed for the Iberian Power Futures Market and other European Power Markets, as well as other fuel markets through evaluation of ex-post Forward Risk Premium. The equilibrium price from compulsory call auctions for distribution companies within the framework of the Iberian Power Futures Market is not optimal for remuneration purposes as it seems to be slightly upward biased. In the period considered (August 2006-July 2008), monthly futures contracts behave similarly to quarterly contracts. Average risk premia have been positive in power and natural gas markets but negative in oil and coal markets. Different hypotheses are tested regarding increasing volatility with maturity and regarding Forward Risk Premium variations (decreasing with variance of spot prices during delivery period and increasing with skewness of spot prices during delivery period). Enlarged data sets are recommended for stronger test results. Energy markets tend to show limited levels of market efficiency. Regarding the emerging Iberian Power Futures Market, price efficiency is improved with market development of all the coexistent forward contracting mechanisms and with further integration of European Regional Electricity Markets. (author)

  7. Accounting Majors' Perceptions of Future Career Skills: An Exploratory Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parham, Abbie Gail; Noland, Thomas G.; Kelly, Julia Ann

    2012-01-01

    Business education is often criticized for its failure to develop lifelong skills. This study examines the opinions of 205 students to determine what skills they deem to be important for their future careers. The study then compares the opinions of accounting students against other business disciplines. The results of the study are mixed for the…

  8. Using Analysis in Children's Literature to Challenge Future Teachers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Sherron Killingsworth

    Teacher educators need to take the responsibility for providing future teachers with long-term evaluative skills necessary to select good literature. Educators must also take responsibility for modeling the powerful notion that books or literature aid in everyone's personal search for meaning. The process of analyzing literature is helpful in…

  9. Vocational Psychology: An Analysis and Directions for the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Joyce E. A.

    2001-01-01

    Key areas of future research in vocational psychology include changing organizational structures, changing career attitudes, diversity of career development opportunities, international focus, increasing diversity, changing nature of technology, evolving educational systems, increased entrepreneurship, work and family issues, and career-leisure…

  10. Developing the School of the Future Based on Quality Principles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doukas, Constantinos I.; Kotsanis, Yannis; Economu, Vassilis; Riviou, Katerina

    Our school's vision is to deliver a more attractive, qualitative and technologically equipped school to our students in order to prepare them to be active 21st Century citizens. In this paper we present the on-going effort that we have made during the last years, towards this direction. Our initial step towards building the "School of the Future" is the implementation of a "Classroom of the Future", as well as the experience gained through our participation in the homonym project. In this classroom our students have a light-weight portable "electronic schoolbag" (Tablet PC) and are connected wirelessly to the interactive whiteboard of their classroom and their teacher's "electronic" tools. This schoolbag contains all of their books and sheets as well as virtual labs, simulations, multimedia material, their schoolwork and every tool related to the educational process.

  11. Alternative Futures for Forest-Based Nanomaterials: An Application of the Manoa Schools Alternative Futures Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Bengston; J. Dator; Mike Dockry; A. Yee

    2016-01-01

    Forestry and forest products research has entered into a robust research agenda focused on creating nano-sized particles and nanoproducts from wood. As wood-based materials can be sustainably produced, the potential of these renewable products could be limitless and include high-end compostable electronics, paint-on solar panels, and lightweight materials for airplanes...

  12. ANALYSIS OF FOREIGN EXPERIENCE OF SYSTEMIC DEVELOPMENT OF FUTURE SOCIAL PEDAGOGISTS’ INFORMATIONAL CULTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleksandr A. Ratsul

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the analysis of foreign experience of systemic development of future social pedagogists’ informational culture. A number of cultural universals are identified, each of them is treated as the core of culture. A list of components of future social pedagogists’ information culture is given. Personality traits that enable future social pedagogists to participate effectively in all kinds of work with information are characterized. Two structural levels (contents and functions in future social pedagogists’ information culture are singled out. Main functions of future social pedagogists’ information culture are defined. The structural organization of future social pedagogists’ information culture is analyzed.

  13. Analysis of the options - rationale for servomanipulator maintenance in future reprocessing plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herndon, J.N.; Hamel, W.R.

    1984-04-01

    The currently available maintenance systems which can be applied, in various combinations, to large-volume in-cell maintenance operations are: (1) contact, (2) overhead cranes, (3) power manipulators, (4) mechanical master/slave manipulators, and (5) servomanipulators. The requirements for reprocessing plant maintenance are reviewed, and the capabilities of remote maintenance systems are described. A basic trade-off analysis of these remote maintenance systems considering reprocessing plant requirements is given. Justification is given for selecting the overhead crane/servomanipulator-based maintenance concept as the option most desirable for future large reprocessing plant maintenance. 23 references, 6 tables

  14. Transport energy demand in Andorra. Assessing private car futures through sensitivity and scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travesset-Baro, Oriol; Gallachóir, Brian P.Ó.; Jover, Eric; Rosas-Casals, Marti

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a model which estimates current car fleet energy consumption in Andorra and forecasts such consumption as a reference scenario. The base-year model is built through a bottom-up methodology using vehicle registration and technical inspection data. The model forecasts energy consumption up to 2050, taking into account the fleet structure, the car survival profile, trends in activity of the various car categories, and the fuel price and income elasticities that affect car stock and total fleet activity. It provides an initial estimate of private car energy demand in Andorra and charts a baseline scenario that describes a hypothetical future based on historical trends. A local sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most sensitive input parameters and study the effect of its variability. In addition, the scenario analysis explores the most uncertain future aspects which can cause important variability in the results with respect to the Reference scenario and provides a broad estimate of potential energy savings related to different policy strategies. - Highlights: •A private car energy model is built using aggregated available data. •Andorra's current car fleet energy consumption is estimated and forecasted to 2050. •Potential energy savings have been estimated using sensitivity and scenario analysis.

  15. Anticipating future innovation pathways through large data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chiavetta, Denise; Porter, Alan; Saritas, Ozcan

    2016-01-01

    This book aims to identify promising future developmental opportunities and applications for Tech Mining. Specifically, the enclosed contributions will pursue three converging themes: The increasing availability of electronic text data resources relating to Science, Technology & Innovation (ST&I) The multiple methods that are able to treat this data effectively and incorporate means to tap into human expertise and interests Translating those analyses to provide useful intelligence on likely future developments of particular emerging S&T targets. Tech Mining can be defined as text analyses of ST&I information resources to generate Competitive Technical Intelligence (CTI). It combines bibliometrics and advanced text analytic, drawing on specialized knowledge pertaining to ST&I. Tech Mining may also be viewed as a special form of “Big Data” analytics because it searches on a target emerging technology (or key organization) of interest in global databases. One then downloads, typically, th...

  16. Sustainable future alternatives to petroleum-based polymeric conservation materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shashoua, Yvonne; Jankova Atanasova, Katja; Curran, Claire

    2017-01-01

    and coating formulations. Bio-polyethylenes, bio-polyesters and bio-cellulose-based products were evaluated against petroleum-based materials. Bio- and petroleum-based polyethylenes shared optical, chemical and thermal properties. Bamboo and sugarcane fibre containers were also chemically stable. Polyester...

  17. Activation analysis in Europe: present and future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Corte, F.; Hoste, J.

    1984-01-01

    A survey is given of the present-day European contribution to activation analysis, covering neutron activation analysis (NAA), charged particle activation analysis (CPAA) and photon activation analysis (PAA). Attention is paid to the available irradiation facilities, in particular nuclear reactors, cyclotrons and Van de Graaff accelerators, and linear electron accelerators. Mention is made of progress in fundamental fields, but the attention is especially focussed on practical applications: environmental, geochemical/cosmochemical, biological/medical, and high-purity materials. Eventually, the role of activation analysis in research projects of the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) and in the Reference Materials program of the Community Bureau of Reference (BCR) is emphasized

  18. A Guide to Designing Future Ground-based CMB Experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, W. L.K. [Stanford Univ., CA (United States); Kavli Inst. for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology, Menlo, Park, CA (United States); Errard, J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Dvorkin, C. [Inst. for Advanced Study, Princeton, NJ (United States); Kuo, C. L. [Stanford Univ., CA (United States); Kavli Inst. for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology, Menlo, Park, CA (United States); Lee, A. T. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); McDonald, P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Slosar, A. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Zahn, O. [Univ. of California, Berkeley and Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), CA (United States)

    2014-02-18

    In this follow-up work to the High Energy Physics Community Summer Study 2013 (HEP CSS 2013, a.k.a. Snowmass), we explore the scientific capabilities of a future Stage-IV Cosmic Microwave Background polarization experiment (CMB-S4) under various assumptions on detector count, resolution, and sky coverage. We use the Fisher matrix technique to calculate the expected uncertainties in cosmological parameters in vΛCDM that are especially relevant to the physics of fundamental interactions, including neutrino masses, effective number of relativistic species, dark-energy equation of state, dark-matter annihilation, and inflationary parameters. To further chart the landscape of future cosmology probes, we include forecasted results from the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) signal as measured by DESI to constrain parameters that would benefit from low redshift information. We find the following best 1-σ constraints: σ(Mv ) = 15 meV, σ(Neff ) = 0.0156, Dark energy Figure of Merit = 303, σ(pann) = 0.00588 x 3 x 10-26 cm3/s/GeV, σ( ΩK) = 0.00074, σ(ns) = 0.00110, σ( αs) = 0.00145, and σ(r) = 0.00009. We also detail the dependences of the parameter constraints on detector count, resolution, and sky coverage.

  19. A Guide to Designing Future Ground-based CMB Experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, W. L.K.; Errard, J.; Dvorkin, C.; Kuo, C. L.; Lee, A. T.; McDonald, P.; Slosar, A.; Zahn, O.

    2014-01-01

    In this follow-up work to the High Energy Physics Community Summer Study 2013 (HEP CSS 2013, a.k.a. Snowmass), we explore the scientific capabilities of a future Stage-IV Cosmic Microwave Background polarization experiment (CMB-S4) under various assumptions on detector count, resolution, and sky coverage. We use the Fisher matrix technique to calculate the expected uncertainties in cosmological parameters in vΛCDM that are especially relevant to the physics of fundamental interactions, including neutrino masses, effective number of relativistic species, dark-energy equation of state, dark-matter annihilation, and inflationary parameters. To further chart the landscape of future cosmology probes, we include forecasted results from the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) signal as measured by DESI to constrain parameters that would benefit from low redshift information. We find the following best 1-δ constraints: δ(M_v ) = 15 meV, δ(N_e_f_f ) = 0.0156, Dark energy Figure of Merit = 303, δ(p_a_n_n) = 0.00588 x 3 x 10"-"2"6 cm"3/s/GeV, δ(Ω_K) = 0.00074, δ(n_s) = 0.00110, δ(α_s) = 0.00145, and δ(r) = 0.00009. We also detail the dependences of the parameter constraints on detector count, resolution, and sky coverage.

  20. Status and future transition of rapid urbanizing landscape in central Western Ghats - CA based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bharath, S..; Rajan, K. S.; Ramachandra, T. V.

    2014-11-01

    The land use changes in forested landscape are highly complex and dynamic, affected by the natural, socio-economic, cultural, political and other factors. The remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS) techniques coupled with multi-criteria evaluation functions such as Markov-cellular automata (CA-Markov) model helps in analysing intensity, extent and future forecasting of human activities affecting the terrestrial biosphere. Karwar taluk of Central Western Ghats in Karnataka state, India has seen rapid transitions in its forest cover due to various anthropogenic activities, primarily driven by major industrial activities. A study based on Landsat and IRS derived data along with CA-Markov method has helped in characterizing the patterns and trends of land use changes over a period of 2004-2013, expected transitions was predicted for a set of scenarios through 2013-2022. The analysis reveals the loss of pristine forest cover from 75.51% to 67.36% (1973 to 2013) and increase in agriculture land as well as built-up area of 8.65% (2013), causing impact on local flora and fauna. The other factors driving these changes are the aggregated level of demand for land, local and regional effects of land use activities such as deforestation, improper practices in expansion of agriculture and infrastructure development, deteriorating natural resources availability. The spatio temporal models helped in visualizing on-going changes apart from prediction of likely changes. The CA-Markov based analysis provides us insights into the localized changes impacting these regions and can be useful in developing appropriate mitigation management approaches based on the modelled future impacts. This necessitates immediate measures for minimizing the future impacts.

  1. Base compaction specification feasibility analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The objective of this research is to establish the technical engineering and cost : analysis concepts that will enable WisDOT management to objectively evaluate the : feasibility of switching construction specification philosophies for aggregate base...

  2. Present and future position of neutron activation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    de Bruin, M.

    1992-01-01

    Results are presented of the performance of INAA and RNAA and when compared with other spectrometric methods for trace element analysis. Indications are given for further developments aiming at exploiting the advantage and reducing the drawbacks of these two analysis technique. (author) 12 refs.; 2 figs.; 1 tab

  3. Mass spectrometry based proteomics, background, status and future needs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roepstorff, Peter

    2012-01-01

    An overview of the background for proteomics and a description of the present state of art are given with a description of the main strategies in proteomics. The advantages and limitations of the two major strategies, 2D-gel based and LC-MS based, are discussed and a combination for the two, CeLC...

  4. Environmental Consequences of Future Biogas Technologies based on Separated Slurry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hamelin, Lorie; Wesnæs, Marianne; Wenzel, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    different slurry separation technologies have been assessed and compared to a business-as-usual reference slurry management scenario. The results show that the environmental benefits of such biogas production are highly dependent upon the efficiency of the separation technology used to concentrate......This consequential life cycle assessment study highlights the key environmental aspects of producing biogas from separated pig and cow slurry, a relatively new but probable scenario for future biogas production, as it avoids the reliance on constrained carbon cosubstrates. Three scenarios involving...... the volatile solids in the solid fraction. The biogas scenario involving the most efficient separation technology resulted in a dry matter separation efficiency of 87% and allowed a net reduction of the global warming potential of 40%, compared to the reference slurry management. This figure comprises...

  5. Social cost-benefit analysis and nuclear futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pearce, D.W.

    1979-01-01

    The usefulness of cost-benefit analysis in making nuclear power investment decisions is considered. The essence of social cost-benefit analysis is outlined and shown to be unavoidably value-laden. As a case study six issues relevant to the decision to build on oxide fuel reprocessing plant (THORP) are examined. The potential practical value of using cost-benefit analysis as an aid to decision-making is considered for each of these issues. It is concluded that cost-benefit approach is of limited value in the nuclear power case because of its inapplicability to such issues as the liberty of the individual and nuclear weapons proliferation. (author)

  6. Probabilistic Decision Based Block Partitioning for Future Video Coding

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Zhao; Wang, Shiqi; Zhang, Jian; Wang, Shanshe; Ma, Siwei

    2017-01-01

    , the mode decision problem is casted into a probabilistic framework to select the final partition based on the confidence interval decision strategy. Experimental results show that the proposed CIET algorithm can speed up QTBT block partitioning structure

  7. Immunizing Children: A Qualitative Analysis of Future Parental Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espeleta, Hannah C; Beasley, Lana O; Ridings, Leigh E; Smith, Tyler J; Shields, Jennifer D

    2017-10-01

    Vaccinations are considered one of public health's greatest accomplishments. Despite evidence for vaccine effectiveness, uptake levels are still well below the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's guidelines. The immunization decision-making process for parents is complex and depends on factors associated with knowledge and experiences. This qualitative study sought to expand on a previous decision-making model for immunizations by examining how individuals receive vaccination information, determining the role of experience in influencing decisions, and understanding how young adults might locate vaccination information in the future. Three focus groups were conducted with 29 undergraduate students without children. Results suggest that young adults exhibit an awareness of information regarding vaccine use and effectiveness, value doctor opinions and recommendations, and desire more robust research on vaccinations. Implications of these results include the importance of (1) disseminating vaccination education to young adults, (2) enhancing consistency/trust between medical professionals and youth, and (3) expanding public policy to increase vaccine uptake.

  8. Estimates of future climate based on SRES emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godal, Odd; Sygna, Linda; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje

    2000-02-14

    The preliminary emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will eventually replace the old IS92 scenarios. By running these scenarios in a simple climate model (SCM) we estimate future temperature increase between 1.7 {sup o}C and 2.8 {sup o}C from 1990 to to 2100. The global sea level rise over the same period is between 0.33 m and 0.45 m. Compared to the previous IPCC scenarios (IS92) the SRES scenarios generally results in changes in both development over time and level of emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and finally temperature change and sea level rise. The most striking difference between the IS92 scenarios and the SRES scenarios is the lower level of SO{sub 2} emissions. The range in CO{sub 2} emissions is also expected to be narrower in the new scenarios. The SRES scenarios result in a narrower range both for temperature change and sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 compared to the range estimated for the IS92 scenarios. (author)

  9. Environmental consequences of future biogas technologies based on separated slurry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamelin, Lorie; Wesnæs, Marianne; Wenzel, Henrik; Petersen, Bjørn M

    2011-07-01

    This consequential life cycle assessment study highlights the key environmental aspects of producing biogas from separated pig and cow slurry, a relatively new but probable scenario for future biogas production, as it avoids the reliance on constrained carbon cosubstrates. Three scenarios involving different slurry separation technologies have been assessed and compared to a business-as-usual reference slurry management scenario. The results show that the environmental benefits of such biogas production are highly dependent upon the efficiency of the separation technology used to concentrate the volatile solids in the solid fraction. The biogas scenario involving the most efficient separation technology resulted in a dry matter separation efficiency of 87% and allowed a net reduction of the global warming potential of 40%, compared to the reference slurry management. This figure comprises the whole slurry life cycle, including the flows bypassing the biogas plant. This study includes soil carbon balances and a method for quantifying the changes in yield resulting from increased nitrogen availability as well as for quantifying mineral fertilizers displacement. Soil carbon balances showed that between 13 and 50% less carbon ends up in the soil pool with the different biogas alternatives, as opposed to the reference slurry management.

  10. Future of mammography-based imaging; Zukunft mammographiebasierter Bildgebung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schulz-Wendtland, R.; Brehm, B.; Meier-Meitinger, M.; Uder, M. [Klinikum der Friedrich-Alexander-Universitaet Erlangen-Nuernberg, Gynaekologische Radiologie, Radiologisches Institut, Erlangen (Germany); Wittenberg, T. [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Integrierte Schaltkreise IIS, Erlangen (Germany); Michel, T.; Anton, G. [Friedrich-Alexander-Universitaet Erlangen-Nuernberg, Erlangen Centre for Astroparticle Physics, Erlangen (Germany); Hartmann, A. [Klinikum der Friedrich-Alexander-Universitaet Erlangen-Nuernberg, Institut fuer Pathologie, Erlangen (Germany); Beckmann, M.W.; Rauh, C.; Jud, S.M.; Fasching, P.A. [Klinikum der Friedrich-Alexander-Universitaet Erlangen-Nuernberg, Frauenklinik, Comprehensive Cancer Center Erlangen-EMN, Erlangen (Germany)

    2014-03-15

    Mammography is the central diagnostic method for clinical diagnostics of breast cancer and the breast cancer screening program. In the clinical routine complementary methods, such as ultrasound, tomosynthesis and optional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are already combined for the diagnostic procedure. Future developments will utilize investigative procedures either as a hybrid (combination of several different imaging modalities in one instrument) or as a fusion method (the technical fusion of two or more of these methods) to implement fusion imaging into diagnostic algorithms. For screening there are reasonable hypotheses to aim for studies that individualize the diagnostic process within the screening procedure. Individual breast cancer risk prediction and individualized knowledge about sensitivity and specificity for certain diagnostic methods could be tested. The clinical implementation of these algorithms is not yet in sight. (orig.) [German] Die Mammographie ist die zentrale diagnostische Methode der klinischen symptombezogenen Abklaerung von Brusterkrankungen und des Brustkrebsscreenings. In der klinischen Diagnostik wird sie heute schon oft durch zusaetzliche Untersuchungsmethoden wie dem Ultraschall, der Tomosynthese und ggf. auch der MRT-Bildgebung unterstuetzt. Zukuenftige Entwicklungen gehen in die Richtung, dass diese Kombination aus 2 oder mehr Untersuchungsverfahren entweder in Hybrid- (Aufnahme mehrerer unterschiedlicher Bildmodalitaeten in einem einzigen Geraet) oder in Fusionsmethoden (Zusammenfuehrung und Registrierung von Bilddaten aus verschiedenen Modalitaeten) technisch professionalisiert werden. Des Weiteren koennten an subgruppenbezogene Erkrankungsrisiken und individuelle Sensitivitaeten und Spezifitaeten angepasste Diagnostikkombinationen fuer eine Screeningdiagnostik Gegenstand kuenftiger Studien sein. Wir stellen die aktuellen Entwicklungen auf diesen Gebieten und deren momentane Relevanz fuer die klinische Praxis und

  11. [Clinical neuropsychology in perspective: future challenges based on current developments].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdejo-García, Antonio; Tirapu-Ustárroz, Javier

    2012-02-01

    New lines of translational, interdisciplinary research are emerging among different fields of the neurosciences, which often point at clinical neuropsychology as the hinge discipline capable of linking the basic findings with their clinical implications and thereby endow them with some meaning for phenomenological experience. To establish the great lines of progress made in the fields of neuroscience and neuropsychology in recent years, so as to be able to foresee the strategic lines and priorities of neuroscience in the near future. To achieve this aim, the first step will be to identify the changes of paradigm that have taken place in the areas of neuroscience and psychology in the last two decades. The next step will be to propose new topics and fields of application that these changes in paradigm offer and demand from neuroscience. The false dichotomies of genes versus environment, mind versus brain, and reason versus emotion are considered, as are the new applications of neuropsychology to the understanding of psychopathological disorders, from the neurodegenerative to neurodevelopment, from 'dirty' drugs to cognitive and affective enhancers.

  12. Recent trends in water analysis triggering future monitoring of organic micropollutants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Torsten C

    2018-03-21

    Water analysis has been an important area since the beginning of analytical chemistry. The focus though has shifted substantially: from minerals and the main constituents of water in the time of Carl Remigius Fresenius to a multitude of, in particular, organic compounds at concentrations down to the sub-nanogram per liter level nowadays. This was possible only because of numerous innovations in instrumentation in recent decades, drivers of which are briefly discussed. In addition to the high demands on sensitivity, high throughput by automation and short analysis times are major requirements. In this article, some recent developments in the chemical analysis of organic micropollutants (OMPs) are presented. These include the analysis of priority pollutants in whole water samples, extension of the analytical window, in particular to encompass highly polar compounds, the trend toward more than one separation dimension before mass spectrometric detection, and ways of coping with unknown analytes by suspect and nontarget screening approaches involving high-resolution mass spectrometry. Furthermore, beyond gathering reliable concentration data for many OMPs, the question of the relevance of such data for the aquatic system under scrutiny is becoming ever more important. To that end, effect-based analytics can be used and may become part of future routine monitoring, mostly with a focus on adverse effects of OMPs in specific test systems mimicking environmental impacts. Despite advances in the field of water analysis in recent years, there are still many challenges for further analytical research. Graphical abstract Recent trends in water analysis of organic micropollutants that open new opportunities in future water monitoring. HRMS high-resolution mass spectrometry, PMOC persistent mobile organic compounds.

  13. Activation analysis in the Americas: recent and future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guinn, V.P.

    1984-01-01

    A total of 243 publications in the field of nuclear activation analysis and its applications during the period of 1977 through mid-1983, from laboratories in North, Central, and South America were reviewed. Various aspects of these populations are treated statistically, for indication of trends, and 146 of these are cited as publications that illustrate the extent of usage of various special forms of the nuclear activation analysis method (e.g., cyclic INAA, prompt-gamma INAA, epithermal NAA, the delayed-neutron method, the use of pre-irradiation chemical separations, etc.) - or that illustrate applications in such fields as archaeology, geochemistry, environmental chemistry, medicine, industry, and forensic chemistry. The overall conclusion is that the method of nuclear activation analysis continues to flourish in this region

  14. Realizing a Clean Energy Future: Highlights of NREL Analysis (Brochure)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2013-12-01

    Profound energy system transformation is underway. In Hawaiian mythology, Maui set out to lasso the sun in order to capture its energy. He succeeded. That may have been the most dramatic leap forward in clean energy systems that the world has known. Until now. Today, another profound transformation is underway. A combination of forces is taking us from a carbon-centric, inefficient energy system to one that draws from diverse energy sources - including the sun. NREL analysis is helping guide energy systems policy and investment decisions through this transformation. This brochure highlights NREL analysis accomplishments in the context of four thematic storylines.

  15. What Is Game-Based Learning? Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jan, Mingfong; Gaydos, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    This article aims at clarifying and conceptualizing game-based learning (GBL) in order to pinpoint directions for practices and research. The authors maintain that GBL should be conceptualized toward the transformation of a textbook-learning culture. The authors emphasize the importance of a paradigm shift in learning and a reorientation in…

  16. Current and future developments in nucleic acid-based diagnostics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viljoen, G.J.; Romito, M.; Kara, P.D.

    2005-01-01

    -of-care use. Advances in biosensors, the development of integrated systems, such as lab-on-a-chip devices, and enhanced communications systems are likely to play significant future roles in allowing for rapid therapeutic and management strategies to deal with disease outbreaks. (author)

  17. A big data analysis of the relationship between future thinking and decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorstad, Robert; Wolff, Phillip

    2018-02-20

    We use big data methods to investigate how decision-making might depend on future sightedness (that is, on how far into the future people's thoughts about the future extend). In study 1, we establish a link between future thinking and decision-making at the population level in showing that US states with citizens having relatively far future sightedness, as reflected in their tweets, take fewer risks than citizens in states having relatively near future sightedness. In study 2, we analyze people's tweets to confirm a connection between future sightedness and decision-making at the individual level in showing that people with long future sightedness are more likely to choose larger future rewards over smaller immediate rewards. In study 3, we show that risk taking decreases with increases in future sightedness as reflected in people's tweets. The ability of future sightedness to predict decisions suggests that future sightedness is a relatively stable cognitive characteristic. This implication was supported in an analysis of tweets by over 38,000 people that showed that future sightedness has both state and trait characteristics (study 4). In study 5, we provide evidence for a potential mechanism by which future sightedness can affect decisions in showing that far future sightedness can make the future seem more connected to the present, as reflected in how people refer to the present, past, and future in their tweets over the course of several minutes. Our studies show how big data methods can be applied to naturalistic data to reveal underlying psychological properties and processes.

  18. Competency-Based Postgraduate Medical Education: Past, Present and Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ten Cate, Olle

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Since the turn of the twenty-first century, competency-based medical education (CBME has become a dominant approach to postgraduate medical education in many countries. CBME has a history dating back half a century and is rooted in general educational approaches such as outcome-based education and mastery learning. Despite controversies around the terminology and the CBME approach, important national medical regulatory bodies in Canada, the United States, and other countries have embraced CBME. CBME can be characterized as having two distinct features: a focus on specific domains of competence, and a relative independence of time in training, making it an individualized approach that is particularly applicable in workplace training. It is not the length of training that determines a person’s readiness for unsupervised practice, but the attained competence or competencies. This shift in focus makes CBME different from traditional training. In this contribution, definitions of CBME and related concepts are detailed.

  19. Optimization in supply chain management, the current state and future directions: A systematic review and bibliometric analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmood Movahedipour

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is finding the current state of research and identifies high-potential area for future investigation in optimization in supply chain management. Design/methodology/approach: In this paper we present Bibliometric and Network analysis to examine current state research on optimization in supply chain management to identify established and emergent research field for future investigation. The systematic research review which we used in our study have not grasp or assess by other researchers on this topic. Firstly, based on our methodology Bibliometric analysis began by identifying 1610 publications raised from scientific journals, included literatures from 1994 to March of 2016. Secondly, we applied PageRank algorithm in our data for citation analysis to indicate the significance of a publication. Thirdly, the topological decision variables analysis is done based on Louvain method for network data clustering, for this proposes we used the rigorous tools. Finding: Based on our Network analysis result, the optimization in supply chain management research can be divided into four clusters /modules that introduced fundamental skill, knowledge, theory, application and method. Research limitations/implications: We presented some limitation in our research in some fields which could allow new researchers and practitioners conduct the future research to grow up in different dimensions. Practical implications: Practitioners or policy maker usually are not familiar with these type researches so this is why mush of these survey remain in theatrical and conceptual .Future investigation needs to play in practical application  domain instead stop merely in opinion.    Originality/value: Based on our research, the researchers have more attention to work in conceptual analysis due to other fields but we believe that in facility location problem there many remarkable rooms still exist for future research to development

  20. Optimization in supply chain management, the current state and future directions: A systematic review and bibliometric analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Movahedipour, M.; Yang, M.; Zeng, J.; Wu, X.; Salam, S.

    2016-07-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is finding the current state of research and identifies high-potential area for future investigation in optimization in supply chain management. Design/methodology/approach: In this paper we present Bibliometric and Network analysis to examine current state research on optimization in supply chain management to identify established and emergent research field for future investigation. The systematic research review which we used in our study have not grasp or assess by other researchers on this topic. Firstly, based on our methodology Bibliometric analysis began by identifying 1610 publications raised from scientific journals, included literatures from 1994 to March of 2016. Secondly, we applied PageRank algorithm in our data for citation analysis to indicate the significance of a publication. Thirdly, the topological decision variables analysis is done based on Louvain method for network data clustering, for this proposes we used the rigorous tools. Finding: Based on our Network analysis result, the optimization in supply chain management research can be divided into four clusters /modules that introduced fundamental skill, knowledge, theory, application and method. Research limitations/implications: We presented some limitation in our research in some fields which could allow new researchers and practitioners conduct the future research to grow up in different dimensions. Practical implications: Practitioners or policy maker usually are not familiar with these type researches so this is why mush of these survey remain in theatrical and conceptual .Future investigation needs to play in practical application domain instead stop merely in opinion. Originality/value: Based on our research, the researchers have more attention to work in conceptual analysis due to other fields but we believe that in facility location problem there many remarkable rooms still exist for future research to development. We also contributed more details in

  1. Optimization in supply chain management, the current state and future directions: A systematic review and bibliometric analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Movahedipour, M.; Yang, M.; Zeng, J.; Wu, X.; Salam, S.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is finding the current state of research and identifies high-potential area for future investigation in optimization in supply chain management. Design/methodology/approach: In this paper we present Bibliometric and Network analysis to examine current state research on optimization in supply chain management to identify established and emergent research field for future investigation. The systematic research review which we used in our study have not grasp or assess by other researchers on this topic. Firstly, based on our methodology Bibliometric analysis began by identifying 1610 publications raised from scientific journals, included literatures from 1994 to March of 2016. Secondly, we applied PageRank algorithm in our data for citation analysis to indicate the significance of a publication. Thirdly, the topological decision variables analysis is done based on Louvain method for network data clustering, for this proposes we used the rigorous tools. Finding: Based on our Network analysis result, the optimization in supply chain management research can be divided into four clusters /modules that introduced fundamental skill, knowledge, theory, application and method. Research limitations/implications: We presented some limitation in our research in some fields which could allow new researchers and practitioners conduct the future research to grow up in different dimensions. Practical implications: Practitioners or policy maker usually are not familiar with these type researches so this is why mush of these survey remain in theatrical and conceptual .Future investigation needs to play in practical application domain instead stop merely in opinion. Originality/value: Based on our research, the researchers have more attention to work in conceptual analysis due to other fields but we believe that in facility location problem there many remarkable rooms still exist for future research to development. We also contributed more details in

  2. Charged particle activation analysis at RIKEN. Past, present and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nozaki, T.

    2008-01-01

    From 1960s to 1980s many groups in the world actively studied and utilized charged particle activation analysis (CPAA) mainly for absolute determination of B, C, N, and O in high-purity substances, particularly semiconductor materials. Here, after a short historical note on CPAA, works of the author's group mainly at RIKEN are outlined and then his opinion is shown about how to anticipate on the present shrinking of CPAA. (author)

  3. Comparative Analysis, Hypercard, and the Future of Social Studies Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennings, James M.

    This research paper seeks to address new theories of learning and instructional practices that will be needed to meet the demands of 21st century education. A brief review of the literature on the topics of constructivism, reflective inquiry, and multicultural education, which form the major elements of a computer-based system called HyperCAP, are…

  4. Toward Future Photovoltaic-Based Agriculture in Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moustafa, Khaled

    2016-04-01

    To meet the challenges of climate change and water shortages, combining solar energy-based seawater desalination technologies with floating agriculture stations in one innovative hybrid system would be worthy of investigation for dry and sunny regions for seawater desalination and crop production within the same platform. Here, I discuss the feasibility of such a 'floating farm' or 'bluehouse' in the sea, by comparing it with the use of terrestrial greenhouses. I also debate the potential advantages and shortcomings of such a system. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Designing a future Conditions Database based on LHC experience

    CERN Document Server

    Formica, Andrea; The ATLAS collaboration; Gallas, Elizabeth; Govi, Giacomo; Lehmann Miotto, Giovanna; Pfeiffer, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    The ATLAS and CMS Conditions Database infrastructures have served each of the respective experiments well through LHC Run 1, providing efficient access to a wide variety of conditions information needed in online data taking and offline processing and analysis. During the long shutdown between Run 1 and Run 2, we have taken various measures to improve our systems for Run 2. In some cases, a drastic change was not possible because of the relatively short time scale to prepare for Run 2. In this process, and in the process of comparing to the systems used by other experiments, we realized that for Run 3, we should consider more fundamental changes and possibilities. We seek changes which would streamline conditions data management, improve monitoring tools, better integrate the use of metadata, incorporate analytics to better understand conditions usage, as well as investigate fundamental changes in the storage technology, which might be more efficient while minimizing maintenance of the data as well as simplif...

  6. Proceedings of DAE-BRNS discussion meet on current trends and future perspectives of neutron activation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reddy, A.V.R.; Acharya, R.; Nair, A.G.C.; Manchanda, V.K.

    2006-01-01

    The theme of the meet includes: Development of Neutron Activation Analysis (Naca) methods : k o -based NAA, Chemical NAA, Short-lived NAA, Prompt Gamma ray NAA (PGNAA), Fast neutron NAA using reactor and 14 MeV neutrons, Applications of NAA methods in various fields, Gamma ray spectrometry, An in-sight to data analysis in NAA, Position of NAA in comparison to other Nuclear Analytical Techniques (NATs) and Future perspectives in a panel discussion. Papers relevant to INIS are indexed separately

  7. Invasive candidiasis: future directions in non-culture based diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posch, Wilfried; Heimdörfer, David; Wilflingseder, Doris; Lass-Flörl, Cornelia

    2017-09-01

    Delayed initial antifungal therapy is associated with high mortality rates caused by invasive candida infections, since accurate detection of the opportunistic pathogenic yeast and its identification display a diagnostic challenge. diagnosis of candida infections relies on time-consuming methods such as blood cultures, serologic and histopathologic examination. to allow for fast detection and characterization of invasive candidiasis, there is a need to improve diagnostic tools. trends in diagnostics switch to non-culture-based methods, which allow specified diagnosis within significantly shorter periods of time in order to provide early and appropriate antifungal treatment. Areas covered: within this review comprise novel pathogen- and host-related testing methods, e.g. multiplex-PCR analyses, T2 magnetic resonance, fungus-specific DNA microarrays, microRNA characterization or analyses of IL-17 as biomarker for early detection of invasive candidiasis. Expert commentary: Early recognition and diagnosis of fungal infections is a key issue for improved patient management. As shown in this review, a broad range of novel molecular based tests for the detection and identification of Candida species is available. However, several assays are in-house assays and lack standardization, clinical validation as well as data on sensitivity and specificity. This underscores the need for the development of faster and more accurate diagnostic tests.

  8. Phosphorene and Phosphorene-Based Materials - Prospects for Future Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batmunkh, Munkhbayar; Bat-Erdene, Munkhjargal; Shapter, Joseph G

    2016-10-01

    Phosphorene, a single- or few-layered semiconductor material obtained from black phosphorus, has recently been introduced as a new member of the family of two-dimensional (2D) layered materials. Since its discovery, phosphorene has attracted significant attention, and due to its unique properties, is a promising material for many applications including transistors, batteries and photovoltaics (PV). However, based on the current progress in phosphorene production, it is clear that a lot remains to be explored before this material can be used for these applications. After providing a comprehensive overview of recent advancements in phosphorene synthesis, advantages and challenges of the currently available methods for phosphorene production are discussed. An overview of the research progress in the use of phosphorene for a wide range of applications is presented, with a focus on enabling important roles that phosphorene would play in next-generation PV cells. Roadmaps that have the potential to address some of the challenges in phosphorene research are examined because it is clear that the unprecedented chemical, physical and electronic properties of phosphorene and phosphorene-based materials are suitable for various applications, including photovoltaics. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  9. Future Synchrotron Light Sources Based on Ultimate Storage Rings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai, Yunhai

    2012-01-01

    The main purpose of this talk is to describe how far one might push the state of the art in storage ring design. The talk will start with an overview of the latest developments and advances in the design of synchrotron light sources based on the concept of an 'ultimate' storage ring. The review will establish how bright a ring based light source might be, where the frontier of technological challenges are, and what the limits of accelerator physics are. Emphasis will be given to possible improvements in accelerator design and developments in technology toward the goal of achieving an ultimate storage ring. An ultimate storage ring (USR), defined as an electron ring-based light source having an emittance in both transverse planes at the diffraction limit for the range of X-ray wavelengths of interest for a scientific community, would provide very high brightness photons having high transverse coherence that would extend the capabilities of X-ray imaging and probe techniques beyond today's performance. It would be a cost-effective, high-coherence 4th generation light source, competitive with one based on energy recovery linac (ERL) technology, serving a large number of users studying material, chemical, and biological sciences. Furthermore, because of the experience accumulated over many decades of ring operation, it would have the great advantage of stability and reliability. In this paper we consider the design of an USR having 10-pm-rad emittance. It is a tremendous challenge to design a storage ring having such an extremely low emittance, a factor of 100 smaller than those in existing light sources, especially such that it has adequate dynamic aperture and beam lifetime. In many ultra-low emittance designs, the injection acceptances are not large enough for accumulation of the electron beam, necessitating on-axis injection where stored electron bunches are completely replaced with newly injected ones. Recently, starting with the MAX-IV 7-bend achromatic cell, we

  10. Future Synchrotron Light Sources Based on Ultimate Storage Rings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cai, Yunhai; /SLAC

    2012-04-09

    The main purpose of this talk is to describe how far one might push the state of the art in storage ring design. The talk will start with an overview of the latest developments and advances in the design of synchrotron light sources based on the concept of an 'ultimate' storage ring. The review will establish how bright a ring based light source might be, where the frontier of technological challenges are, and what the limits of accelerator physics are. Emphasis will be given to possible improvements in accelerator design and developments in technology toward the goal of achieving an ultimate storage ring. An ultimate storage ring (USR), defined as an electron ring-based light source having an emittance in both transverse planes at the diffraction limit for the range of X-ray wavelengths of interest for a scientific community, would provide very high brightness photons having high transverse coherence that would extend the capabilities of X-ray imaging and probe techniques beyond today's performance. It would be a cost-effective, high-coherence 4th generation light source, competitive with one based on energy recovery linac (ERL) technology, serving a large number of users studying material, chemical, and biological sciences. Furthermore, because of the experience accumulated over many decades of ring operation, it would have the great advantage of stability and reliability. In this paper we consider the design of an USR having 10-pm-rad emittance. It is a tremendous challenge to design a storage ring having such an extremely low emittance, a factor of 100 smaller than those in existing light sources, especially such that it has adequate dynamic aperture and beam lifetime. In many ultra-low emittance designs, the injection acceptances are not large enough for accumulation of the electron beam, necessitating on-axis injection where stored electron bunches are completely replaced with newly injected ones. Recently, starting with the MAX-IV 7-bend

  11. Innovative classification of methods of the Future-oriented Technology Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    HALICKA, Katarzyna

    2016-01-01

    In the era characterized by significant dynamics of the environment traditional methods of anticipating the future, assuming the immutability of the factors affecting the forecasted phenomenon, may be in the long term ineffective. The modern approach of predicting the future of technology, taking into account the multidimensionality of the environment, is, among other things, the Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA). Designing the FTA research procedure is a complex process, both in orga...

  12. GIS-Based Planning and Modeling for Renewable Energy: Challenges and Future Research Avenues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernd Resch

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available In the face of the broad political call for an “energy turnaround”, we are currently witnessing three essential trends with regard to energy infrastructure planning, energy generation and storage: from planned production towards fluctuating production on the basis of renewable energy sources, from centralized generation towards decentralized generation and from expensive energy carriers towards cost-free energy carriers. These changes necessitate considerable modifications of the energy infrastructure. Even though most of these modifications are inherently motivated by geospatial questions and challenges, the integration of energy system models and Geographic Information Systems (GIS is still in its infancy. This paper analyzes the shortcomings of previous approaches in using GIS in renewable energy-related projects, extracts distinct challenges from these previous efforts and, finally, defines a set of core future research avenues for GIS-based energy infrastructure planning with a focus on the use of renewable energy. These future research avenues comprise the availability base data and their “geospatial awareness”, the development of a generic and unified data model, the usage of volunteered geographic information (VGI and crowdsourced data in analysis processes, the integration of 3D building models and 3D data analysis, the incorporation of network topologies into GIS, the harmonization of the heterogeneous views on aggregation issues in the fields of energy and GIS, fine-grained energy demand estimation from freely-available data sources, decentralized storage facility planning, the investigation of GIS-based public participation mechanisms, the transition from purely structural to operational planning, data privacy aspects and, finally, the development of a new dynamic power market design.

  13. Applied risk analysis to the future Brazilian electricity generation matrix

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maues, Jair; Fernandez, Eloi; Correa, Antonio

    2010-09-15

    This study compares energy conversion systems for the generation of electrical power, with an emphasis on the Brazilian energy matrix. The financial model applied in this comparison is based on the Portfolio Theory, developed by Harry Markowitz. The risk-return ratio related to the electrical generation mix predicted in the National Energy Plan - 2030, published in 2006 by the Brazilian Energy Research Office, is evaluated. The increase of non-traditional renewable energy in this expected electrical generating mix, specifically, residues of sugar cane plantations and wind energy, reduce not only the risk but also the average cost of the kilowatt-hour generated.

  14. The Pathogen-Host Interactions database (PHI-base): additions and future developments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban, Martin; Pant, Rashmi; Raghunath, Arathi; Irvine, Alistair G; Pedro, Helder; Hammond-Kosack, Kim E

    2015-01-01

    Rapidly evolving pathogens cause a diverse array of diseases and epidemics that threaten crop yield, food security as well as human, animal and ecosystem health. To combat infection greater comparative knowledge is required on the pathogenic process in multiple species. The Pathogen-Host Interactions database (PHI-base) catalogues experimentally verified pathogenicity, virulence and effector genes from bacterial, fungal and protist pathogens. Mutant phenotypes are associated with gene information. The included pathogens infect a wide range of hosts including humans, animals, plants, insects, fish and other fungi. The current version, PHI-base 3.6, available at http://www.phi-base.org, stores information on 2875 genes, 4102 interactions, 110 host species, 160 pathogenic species (103 plant, 3 fungal and 54 animal infecting species) and 181 diseases drawn from 1243 references. Phenotypic and gene function information has been obtained by manual curation of the peer-reviewed literature. A controlled vocabulary consisting of nine high-level phenotype terms permits comparisons and data analysis across the taxonomic space. PHI-base phenotypes were mapped via their associated gene information to reference genomes available in Ensembl Genomes. Virulence genes and hotspots can be visualized directly in genome browsers. Future plans for PHI-base include development of tools facilitating community-led curation and inclusion of the corresponding host target(s). © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  15. [The future of forensic DNA analysis for criminal justice].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurent, François-Xavier; Vibrac, Geoffrey; Rubio, Aurélien; Thévenot, Marie-Thérèse; Pène, Laurent

    2017-11-01

    In the criminal framework, the analysis of approximately 20 DNA microsatellites enables the establishment of a genetic profile with a high statistical power of discrimination. This technique gives us the possibility to establish or exclude a match between a biological trace detected at a crime scene and a suspect whose DNA was collected via an oral swab. However, conventional techniques do tend to complexify the interpretation of complex DNA samples, such as degraded DNA and mixture DNA. The aim of this review is to highlight the powerness of new forensic DNA methods (including high-throughput sequencing or single-cell sequencing) to facilitate the interpretation of the expert with full compliance with existing french legislation. © 2017 médecine/sciences – Inserm.

  16. Big data for risk analysis: The future of safe railways

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Figueres Esteban, M.

    2016-07-01

    New technology brings ever more data to support decision-making for intelligent transport systems. Big Data is no longer a futuristic challenge, it is happening right now: modern railway systems have countless sources of data providing a massive quantity of diverse information on every aspect of operations such as train position and speed, brake applications, passenger numbers, status of the signaling system or reported incidents.The traditional approaches to safety management on the railways have relied on static data sources to populate traditional safety tools such as bow-tie models and fault trees. The Big Data Risk Analysis (BDRA) program for Railways at the University of Huddersfield is investigating how the many Big Data sources from the railway can be combined in a meaningful way to provide a better understanding about the GB railway systems and the environment within which they operate.Moving to BDRA is not simply a matter of scaling-up existing analysis techniques. BDRA has to coordinate and combine a wide range of sources with different types of data and accuracy, and that is not straight-forward. BDRA is structured around three components: data, ontology and visualisation. Each of these components is critical to support the overall framework. This paper describes how these three components are used to get safety knowledge from two data sources by means of ontologies from text documents. This is a part of the ongoing BDRA research that is looking at integrating many large and varied data sources to support railway safety and decision-makers. (Author)

  17. Benefit Analysis of Hybrid CNT/CFRP Composites in Future Aircraft Structures, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — During Phase I, Aurora Flight Sciences and N12 Technologies propose to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the benefits of hybrid composites in future aircraft...

  18. Investor preferences for oil spot and futures based on mean-variance and stochastic dominance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.H. Lean (Hooi Hooi); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines investor preferences for oil spot and futures based on mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD). The mean-variance criterion cannot distinct the preferences of spot and market whereas SD tests leads to the conclusion that spot dominates futures in the downside

  19. Research on biomass energy and environment from the past to the future: A bibliometric analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Guozhu; Huang, Ning; Chen, Lu; Wang, Hongmei

    2018-09-01

    The development and utilization of biomass energy can help to change the ways of energy production and consumption and establish a sustainable energy system that can effectively promote the development of the national economy and strengthen the protection of the environment. Here,we perform a bibliometric analysis of 9514 literature reports in the Web of Science Core Collection searched with the key words "Biomass energy" and "Environment*" date from 1998 to 2017; hot topics in the research and development of biomass energy utilization, as well as the status and development trends of biomass energy utilization and the environment, were analyzed based on content analysis and bibliometrics. The interaction between biomass energy and the environment began to become a major concern as the research progressively deepened. This work is of great significance for the development and utilization of biomass energy to put forward specific suggestions and strategies based on the analysis and demonstration of relationships and interactions between biomass energy utilization and environment. It is also useful to researchers for selecting the future research topics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Hand-Based Biometric Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bebis, George (Inventor); Amayeh, Gholamreza (Inventor)

    2015-01-01

    Hand-based biometric analysis systems and techniques are described which provide robust hand-based identification and verification. An image of a hand is obtained, which is then segmented into a palm region and separate finger regions. Acquisition of the image is performed without requiring particular orientation or placement restrictions. Segmentation is performed without the use of reference points on the images. Each segment is analyzed by calculating a set of Zernike moment descriptors for the segment. The feature parameters thus obtained are then fused and compared to stored sets of descriptors in enrollment templates to arrive at an identity decision. By using Zernike moments, and through additional manipulation, the biometric analysis is invariant to rotation, scale, or translation or an in put image. Additionally, the analysis utilizes re-use of commonly-seen terms in Zernike calculations to achieve additional efficiencies over traditional Zernike moment calculation.

  1. Characterization of fetal cells from the maternal circulation by microarray gene expression analysis - Could the extravillous trophoblasts be a target for future cell-based non-invasive prenatal diagnosis?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hatt, Lotte; Brinch, Marie; Singh, Ripudaman

    2014-01-01

    stem cell microarray analysis. Results: 39 genes were identified as candidates for unique fetal cell markers. More than half of these are genes known to be expressed in the placenta, especially in extravillous trophoblasts (EVTs). Immunohistochemical staining of placental tissue confirmed CD105......Introduction: Circulating fetal cells in maternal blood provide a tool for risk-free, non-invasive prenatal diagnosis. However, fetal cells in the maternal circulation are scarce, and to effectively isolate enough of them for reliable diagnostics, it is crucial to know which fetal cell type......(s) should be targeted. Materials and Methods: Fetal cells were enriched from maternal blood by magnetic-activated cell sorting using the endothelial cell marker CD105 and identified by XY fluorescence in situ hybridization. Expression pattern was compared between fetal cells and maternal blood cells using...

  2. Geothermal power production in future electricity markets-A scenario analysis for Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purkus, Alexandra; Barth, Volker

    2011-01-01

    Development and diffusion of new renewable energy technologies play a central role in mitigating climate change. In this context, small-scale deep geothermal power has seen growing interest in recent years as an environmentally friendly, non-intermittent energy source with large technical potential. Following the first successful demonstration projects, the German geothermal industry is currently experiencing an internationally unparalleled growth. In this study we explore the factors driving this development, and the role geothermal power production could play in the future of the German electricity market. For this, we apply the scenario technique, based on literature analysis and interviews with companies operating actively in the field. Our findings highlight the importance of political support and framework conditions in the electricity market, with the best prospects in a decentralised energy system based on renewable energy sources, where high investment costs and the risk of discovery failure are balanced by the benefits of low-carbon base load power. - Research highlights: → Small scale geothermal plants could provide base load for RES based power systems. → New technologies allow its use even in geologically inactive regions like Germany. → Key factors for growth are political support and power market framework conditions. → Main investment barriers are comparatively high investment costs and discovery risks. → Scale of use depends on technological evolution and energy system structure.

  3. Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations

    OpenAIRE

    Gagnin, Cristiano; Havas, Attila; Saritas, Ozcan

    2011-01-01

    This paper reflects on the potential of future-oriented analysis (FTA) to address major change and to support decision-makers and other stakeholders in anticipating and dealing with transformations. It does so by critically reflecting on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future-oriented Technology Analysis. Considering the potential roles of FTA in enabling a better understanding of co...

  4. Analysis of Big Data in Gait Biomechanics: Current Trends and Future Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phinyomark, Angkoon; Petri, Giovanni; Ibáñez-Marcelo, Esther; Osis, Sean T; Ferber, Reed

    2018-01-01

    The increasing amount of data in biomechanics research has greatly increased the importance of developing advanced multivariate analysis and machine learning techniques, which are better able to handle "big data". Consequently, advances in data science methods will expand the knowledge for testing new hypotheses about biomechanical risk factors associated with walking and running gait-related musculoskeletal injury. This paper begins with a brief introduction to an automated three-dimensional (3D) biomechanical gait data collection system: 3D GAIT, followed by how the studies in the field of gait biomechanics fit the quantities in the 5 V's definition of big data: volume, velocity, variety, veracity, and value. Next, we provide a review of recent research and development in multivariate and machine learning methods-based gait analysis that can be applied to big data analytics. These modern biomechanical gait analysis methods include several main modules such as initial input features, dimensionality reduction (feature selection and extraction), and learning algorithms (classification and clustering). Finally, a promising big data exploration tool called "topological data analysis" and directions for future research are outlined and discussed.

  5. Maritime Pre-Positioning Force-Future: Bill Payer or Sea Basing Enabler?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Grotewold, William R

    2008-01-01

    .... The Maritime Prepositioning Force-Future (MPF-F) program, envisioned as a key enabler of sea basing, may be funded through further cuts in amphibious ships or fall victim to an untenable Navy ship building plan...

  6. Evaluating the Navy’s Enlisted Accessions Testing Program Based on Future Talent Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-01

    NAVY’S ENLISTED ACCESSIONS TESTING PROGRAM BASED ON FUTURE TALENT NEEDS by Shereka F. Riley March 2017 Thesis Advisor: Joseph Sullivan Co...REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE EVALUATING THE NAVY’S ENLISTED ACCESSIONS TESTING PROGRAM BASED ON FUTURE TALENT ...public release. Distribution is unlimited. 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) In recent years, non-defense related industries

  7. Improving Hospital Services Based on Patient Experience Data: Current Feedback Practices and Future Opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaipio, Johanna; Stenhammar, Hanna; Immonen, Susanna; Litovuo, Lauri; Axelsson, Minja; Lantto, Minna; Lahdenne, Pekka

    2018-01-01

    Patient feedback is considered important for healthcare organizations. However, measurement and analysis of patient reported data is useful only if gathered insights are transformed into actions. This article focuses on gathering and utilization of patient experience data at hospitals with the aim of supporting the development of patient-centered services. The study was designed to explore both current practices of collecting and utilizing patient feedback at hospitals as well as future feedback-related opportunities. Nine people working at different hierarchical levels of three university hospitals in Finland participated in in-depth interviews. Findings indicate that current feedback processes are poorly planned and inflexible. Some feedback data are gathered, but not systematically utilized. Currently, it is difficult to obtain a comprehensive picture of the situation. One future hope was to increase the amount of patient feedback to be able to better generalize and utilize the data. Based on the findings the following recommendations are given: attention to both patients' and healthcare staff's perspectives when collecting feedback, employing a coordinated approach for collecting and utilizing patient feedback, and organizational transformation towards a patient-centric culture.

  8. The Analysis of the Development of Futures Investment Funds in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Zhe Jing

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces the futures investment fund, elaborates on its functions and puts forward its problems in China. It also comes up with some personal suggestions for reference based on the measures for its development.

  9. Estimation of the future nuclear power research in Romania, based on the present Cernavoda NPP evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumitrache, Ion

    2001-01-01

    For more than four decades, the electric power needs of Romania were evaluated on the basis of the State Plan for Economic Development. To identify the optimal solution, the 'least price per produced MWh' was practically the only criterion. Now, there is no convincing estimation of the future economic development and at least two additional criteria play a significant role, 'the safety in the supply of the needed electric power', and 'the need of limiting the environmental impact of electricity generation'. The analysis dedicated to evaluation of future electric power solutions must take into account several features of the present situation. There are no available internal funds to finance the construction of new generating units of the order of several hundreds of MW. Even the so-called 'refurbishing' of the existing thermal power plants is based on foreign loan. In the 2000 year, about 80 electricity generation units reached 30 years of operation, i.e., the design life. Other thermal power plants proved very modest performances during 15-20 years of operation. Consequently, the future of almost 100 generating units is either in shutdown + decommissioning or shutdown + modernization situation. The Government analyzed the situation and decided to continue the completion of the Cernavoda NPP. The Unit 2 will be commissioned in a couple of years, and there is a schedule of negotiations relating the future of the Unit 3. After almost five years of successful operation of the Unit 1, the collaboration between RDT Institutes and NPP has clear features. Based on the experience related to this collaboration and taking into account the evolution of the Cernavoda NPP, we estimated that five research domains have significant chances to obtain a stable (and, hopefully, consistent) financial support. 1. Nuclear Safety, in particular Accident Analysis. As the Government re-iterated the firm decision to meet the conditions required for European integration, most of the nuclear

  10. Flood Frequency Analysis of Future Climate Projections in the Cache Creek Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, I.; Trihn, T.; Ishida, K.; Jang, S.; Kavvas, E.; Kavvas, M. L.

    2014-12-01

    Effects of climate change on hydrologic flow regimes, particularly extreme events, necessitate modeling of future flows to best inform water resources management. Future flow projections may be modeled through the joint use of carbon emission scenarios, general circulation models and watershed models. This research effort ran 13 simulations for carbon emission scenarios (taken from the A1, A2 and B1 families) over the 21st century (2001-2100) for the Cache Creek watershed in Northern California. Atmospheric data from general circulation models, CCSM3 and ECHAM5, were dynamically downscaled to a 9 km resolution using MM5, a regional mesoscale model, before being input into the physically based watershed environmental hydrology (WEHY) model. Ensemble mean and standard deviation of simulated flows describe the expected hydrologic system response. Frequency histograms and cumulative distribution functions characterize the range of hydrologic responses that may occur. The modeled flow results comprise a dataset suitable for time series and frequency analysis allowing for more robust system characterization, including indices such as the 100 year flood return period. These results are significant for water quality management as the Cache Creek watershed is severely impacted by mercury pollution from historic mining activities. Extreme flow events control mercury fate and transport affecting the downstream water bodies of the Sacramento River and Sacramento- San Joaquin Delta which provide drinking water to over 25 million people.

  11. Comparative analysis for energy production processes (EPPs): Sustainable energy futures for Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Talinli, Ilhan; Topuz, Emel; Uygar Akbay, Mehmet

    2010-01-01

    This study presents a comparative analysis of three different energy production process (EPP) scenarios for Turkey. Main goal is to incorporate the prioritization criteria for the assessment of various energy policies for power alternatives, and evaluating these policies against these criteria. The three types of EPPs reviewed in this study are: electricity production from wind farms in the future, existing coal-based thermal power plants and planned nuclear power plants. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is utilized to assess the main and sub-factors of EPPs. Main factors such as economic, technical, social and environmental are assigned in first level of the AHP. The importance weights of factors are produced and priority values with realistic numbers are obtained using Fuzzy-AHP Chang's Model. Priority value for wind energy was determined as two times higher than the others when making the ultimate decision. On aggregate, importance weights of environmental (0.68) and social (0.69) factors make wind power leader. Sub-factors such as public acceptance, waste-emission and environmental impacts cause both nuclear and thermal power to have the lowest priority numbers. Additionally, the CO 2 emissions trade was determined to be a very important criterion associated with both economic and environmental factors according to Kyoto Protocol. This study concludes that Turkey's existing thermal power stations should gradually be substituted by renewable energy options according to a schedule of Turkish energy policies in future.

  12. Preparing the Dutch delta for future droughts: model based support in the national Delta Programme

    Science.gov (United States)

    ter Maat, Judith; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; van der Vat, Marnix; Hunink, Joachim; Prinsen, Geert; Visser, Martijn

    2014-05-01

    Keywords: uncertainty, policymaking, adaptive policies, fresh water management, droughts, Netherlands, Dutch Deltaprogramme, physically-based complex model, theory-motivated meta-model To prepare the Dutch Delta for future droughts and water scarcity, a nation-wide 4-year project, called Delta Programme, is established to assess impacts of climate scenarios and socio-economic developments and to explore policy options. The results should contribute to a national adaptive plan that is able to adapt to future uncertain conditions, if necessary. For this purpose, we followed a model-based step-wise approach, wherein both physically-based complex models and theory-motivated meta-models were used. First step (2010-2011) was to make a quantitative problem description. This involved a sensitivity analysis of the water system for drought situations under current and future conditions. The comprehensive Dutch national hydrological instrument was used for this purpose and further developed. Secondly (2011-2012) our main focus was on making an inventory of potential actions together with stakeholders. We assessed efficacy, sell-by date of actions, and reassessed vulnerabilities and opportunities for the future water supply system if actions were (not) taken. A rapid assessment meta-model was made based on the complex model. The effects of all potential measures were included in the tool. Thirdly (2012-2013), with support of the rapid assessment model, we assessed the efficacy of policy actions over time for an ensemble of possible futures including sea level rise and climate and land use change. Last step (2013-2014) involves the selection of preferred actions from a set of promising actions that meet the defined objectives. These actions are all modeled and evaluated using the complex model. The outcome of the process will be an adaptive management plan. The adaptive plan describes a set of preferred policy pathways - sequences of policy actions - to achieve targets under

  13. NASA Life Sciences Data Repositories: Tools for Retrospective Analysis and Future Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, D.; Wear, M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Fitts, M.

    2011-01-01

    As NASA transitions from the Space Shuttle era into the next phase of space exploration, the need to ensure the capture, analysis, and application of its research and medical data is of greater urgency than at any other previous time. In this era of limited resources and challenging schedules, the Human Research Program (HRP) based at NASA s Johnson Space Center (JSC) recognizes the need to extract the greatest possible amount of information from the data already captured, as well as focus current and future research funding on addressing the HRP goal to provide human health and performance countermeasures, knowledge, technologies, and tools to enable safe, reliable, and productive human space exploration. To this end, the Science Management Office and the Medical Informatics and Health Care Systems Branch within the HRP and the Space Medicine Division have been working to make both research data and clinical data more accessible to the user community. The Life Sciences Data Archive (LSDA), the research repository housing data and information regarding the physiologic effects of microgravity, and the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH-R), the clinical repository housing astronaut data, have joined forces to achieve this goal. The task of both repositories is to acquire, preserve, and distribute data and information both within the NASA community and to the science community at large. This is accomplished via the LSDA s public website (http://lsda.jsc.nasa.gov), which allows access to experiment descriptions including hardware, datasets, key personnel, mission descriptions and a mechanism for researchers to request additional data, research and clinical, that is not accessible from the public website. This will result in making the work of NASA and its partners available to the wider sciences community, both domestic and international. The desired outcome is the use of these data for knowledge discovery, retrospective analysis, and planning of future

  14. Coping with a fast-changing world: Towards new systems of future-oriented technology analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Weber, K. Matthias; Harper, Jennifer Cassingena; Könnölä, Totti; Carabias Barceló, Vicente

    2017-01-01

    Transformations linked to disruptive events are causing a shift in future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) activities from individual large-scale foresight actions to smaller in-house exercises and capacity building. The reasons are manifold relating to the need for an even tighter embedding of FTA in policy-making in a fast-changing complex environment as well as to internal drivers for novel forms of future intelligence to support coordinated and coherent decisions within and across organ...

  15. An Agent-Based Computational Model for China’s Stock Market and Stock Index Futures Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hai-Chuan Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study presents an agent-based computational cross market model for Chinese equity market structure, which includes both stocks and CSI 300 index futures. In this model, we design several stocks and one index future to simulate this structure. This model allows heterogeneous investors to make investment decisions with restrictions including wealth, market trading mechanism, and risk management. Investors’ demands and order submissions are endogenously determined. Our model successfully reproduces several key features of the Chinese financial markets including spot-futures basis distribution, bid-ask spread distribution, volatility clustering, and long memory in absolute returns. Our model can be applied in cross market risk control, market mechanism design, and arbitrage strategies analysis.

  16. System-of-Systems Framework for the Future Hydrogen-Based Transportation Economy: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duffy, M.; Sandor, D.

    2008-06-01

    From a supply chain view, this paper traces the flow of transportation fuels through required systems and addresses the current petroleum-based economy, DOE's vision for a future hydrogen-based transportation economy, and the challenges of a massive market and infrastructure transformation.

  17. Electric Vehicle Based Battery Storages for Future Power System Regulation Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pillai, Jayakrishnan Radhakrishna; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2009-01-01

    supplying the reserve power requirements. This limited regulation services from conventional generators in the future power system calls for other new reserve power solutions like Electric Vehicle (EV) based battery storages. A generic aggregated EV based battery storage for long-term dynamic load frequency...

  18. Personalized translational epilepsy research - Novel approaches and future perspectives: Part I: Clinical and network analysis approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenow, Felix; van Alphen, Natascha; Becker, Albert; Chiocchetti, Andreas; Deichmann, Ralf; Deller, Thomas; Freiman, Thomas; Freitag, Christine M; Gehrig, Johannes; Hermsen, Anke M; Jedlicka, Peter; Kell, Christian; Klein, Karl Martin; Knake, Susanne; Kullmann, Dimitri M; Liebner, Stefan; Norwood, Braxton A; Omigie, Diana; Plate, Karlheinz; Reif, Andreas; Reif, Philipp S; Reiss, Yvonne; Roeper, Jochen; Ronellenfitsch, Michael W; Schorge, Stephanie; Schratt, Gerhard; Schwarzacher, Stephan W; Steinbach, Joachim P; Strzelczyk, Adam; Triesch, Jochen; Wagner, Marlies; Walker, Matthew C; von Wegner, Frederic; Bauer, Sebastian

    2017-11-01

    Despite the availability of more than 15 new "antiepileptic drugs", the proportion of patients with pharmacoresistant epilepsy has remained constant at about 20-30%. Furthermore, no disease-modifying treatments shown to prevent the development of epilepsy following an initial precipitating brain injury or to reverse established epilepsy have been identified to date. This is likely in part due to the polyetiologic nature of epilepsy, which in turn requires personalized medicine approaches. Recent advances in imaging, pathology, genetics and epigenetics have led to new pathophysiological concepts and the identification of monogenic causes of epilepsy. In the context of these advances, the First International Symposium on Personalized Translational Epilepsy Research (1st ISymPTER) was held in Frankfurt on September 8, 2016, to discuss novel approaches and future perspectives for personalized translational research. These included new developments and ideas in a range of experimental and clinical areas such as deep phenotyping, quantitative brain imaging, EEG/MEG-based analysis of network dysfunction, tissue-based translational studies, innate immunity mechanisms, microRNA as treatment targets, functional characterization of genetic variants in human cell models and rodent organotypic slice cultures, personalized treatment approaches for monogenic epilepsies, blood-brain barrier dysfunction, therapeutic focal tissue modification, computational modeling for target and biomarker identification, and cost analysis in (monogenic) disease and its treatment. This report on the meeting proceedings is aimed at stimulating much needed investments of time and resources in personalized translational epilepsy research. Part I includes the clinical phenotyping and diagnostic methods, EEG network-analysis, biomarkers, and personalized treatment approaches. In Part II, experimental and translational approaches will be discussed (Bauer et al., 2017) [1]. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc

  19. The future of climate science analysis in a coming era of exascale computing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, S. C.; Strand, G.

    2013-12-01

    Projections of Community Earth System Model (CESM) output based on the growth of data archived over 2000-2012 at all of our computing sites (NCAR, NERSC, ORNL) show that we can expect to reach 1,000 PB (1 EB) sometime in the next decade or so. The current paradigms of using site-based archival systems to hold these data that are then accessed via portals or gateways, downloading the data to a local system, and then processing/analyzing the data will be irretrievably broken before then. From a climate modeling perspective, the expertise involved in making climate models themselves efficient on HPC systems will need to be applied to the data as well - providing fast parallel analysis tools co-resident in memory with the data, because the disk I/O bandwidth simply will not keep up with the expected arrival of exaflop systems. The ability of scientists, analysts, stakeholders and others to use climate model output to turn these data into understanding and knowledge will require significant advances in the current typical analysis tools and packages to enable these processes for these vast volumes of data. Allowing data users to enact their own analyses on model output is virtually a requirement as well - climate modelers cannot anticipate all the possibilities for analysis that users may want to do. In addition, the expertise of data scientists, and their knowledge of the model output and their knowledge of best practices in data management (metadata, curation, provenance and so on) will need to be rewarded and exploited to gain the most understanding possible from these volumes of data. In response to growing data size, demand, and future projections, the CESM output has undergone a structure evolution and the data management plan has been reevaluated and updated. The major evolution of the CESM data structure is presented here, along with the CESM experience and role within the CMIP3/CMIP5.

  20. Reservoir adaptive operating rules based on both of historical streamflow and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wei; Liu, Pan; Wang, Hao; Chen, Jie; Lei, Xiaohui; Feng, Maoyuan

    2017-10-01

    Climate change is affecting hydrological variables and consequently is impacting water resources management. Historical strategies are no longer applicable under climate change. Therefore, adaptive management, especially adaptive operating rules for reservoirs, has been developed to mitigate the possible adverse effects of climate change. However, to date, adaptive operating rules are generally based on future projections involving uncertainties under climate change, yet ignoring historical information. To address this, we propose an approach for deriving adaptive operating rules considering both historical information and future projections, namely historical and future operating rules (HAFOR). A robustness index was developed by comparing benefits from HAFOR with benefits from conventional operating rules (COR). For both historical and future streamflow series, maximizations of both average benefits and the robustness index were employed as objectives, and four trade-offs were implemented to solve the multi-objective problem. Based on the integrated objective, the simulation-based optimization method was used to optimize the parameters of HAFOR. Using the Dongwushi Reservoir in China as a case study, HAFOR was demonstrated to be an effective and robust method for developing adaptive operating rules under the uncertain changing environment. Compared with historical or projected future operating rules (HOR or FPOR), HAFOR can reduce the uncertainty and increase the robustness for future projections, especially regarding results of reservoir releases and volumes. HAFOR, therefore, facilitates adaptive management in the context that climate change is difficult to predict accurately.

  1. From Site Data to Safety Assessment: Analysis of Present and Future Hydrological Conditions at a Coastal Site in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berglund, Sten; Bosson, Emma; Sassner, Mona

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of present and future hydrological conditions at the Forsmark site in Sweden, which has been proposed as the site for a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. Forsmark is a coastal site that changes in response to shoreline displacement. In the considered time frame (until year 10 000 ad), the hydrological system will be affected by landscape succession associated with shoreline displacement and changes in vegetation, regolith stratigraphy, and climate. Based on extensive site investigations and modeling of present hydrological conditions, the effects of different processes on future site hydrology are quantified. As expected, shoreline displacement has a strong effect on local hydrology (e.g., groundwater flow) in areas that change from sea to land. The comparison between present and future land areas emphasizes the importance of climate variables relative to other factors for main hydrological features such as water balances

  2. Analysis of present day and future OH and methane lifetime in the ACCMIP simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Voulgarakis

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Results from simulations performed for the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP are analysed to examine how OH and methane lifetime may change from present day to the future, under different climate and emissions scenarios. Present day (2000 mean tropospheric chemical lifetime derived from the ACCMIP multi-model mean is 9.8 ± 1.6 yr (9.3 ± 0.9 yr when only including selected models, lower than a recent observationally-based estimate, but with a similar range to previous multi-model estimates. Future model projections are based on the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, and the results also exhibit a large range. Decreases in global methane lifetime of 4.5 ± 9.1% are simulated for the scenario with lowest radiative forcing by 2100 (RCP 2.6, while increases of 8.5 ± 10.4% are simulated for the scenario with highest radiative forcing (RCP 8.5. In this scenario, the key driver of the evolution of OH and methane lifetime is methane itself, since its concentration more than doubles by 2100 and it consumes much of the OH that exists in the troposphere. Stratospheric ozone recovery, which drives tropospheric OH decreases through photolysis modifications, also plays a partial role. In the other scenarios, where methane changes are less drastic, the interplay between various competing drivers leads to smaller and more diverse OH and methane lifetime responses, which are difficult to attribute. For all scenarios, regional OH changes are even more variable, with the most robust feature being the large decreases over the remote oceans in RCP8.5. Through a regression analysis, we suggest that differences in emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds and in the simulation of photolysis rates may be the main factors causing the differences in simulated present day OH and methane lifetime. Diversity in predicted changes between present day and future OH was found to be associated more strongly with

  3. Advancing School-Based Interventions through Economic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsson, Tina M.; Ferrer-Wreder, Laura; Eninger, Lilianne

    2014-01-01

    Commentators interested in school-based prevention programs point to the importance of economic issues for the future of prevention efforts. Many of the processes and aims of prevention science are dependent upon prevention resources. Although economic analysis is an essential tool for assessing resource use, the attention given economic analysis…

  4. The Case of Web-Based Course on Taxation: Current Status, Problems and Future Improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Zhigang

    This paper mainly introduces the case of the web-based course on taxation developed by Xiamen University. We analyze the current status, problems and future improvement of the web-based course. The web-based course has the basic contents and modules, but it has several problems including unclear object, lacking interaction, lacking examination module, lacking study management module, and the learning materials and the navigation are too simple. According to its problems, we put forward the measures to improve it.

  5. The study of the price of gold futures based on heterogeneous investors' overconfidence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wei Jiang; Pupu Luan; Chunpeng Yang

    2014-01-01

    Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to research and analyze the price of gold futures based on heterogeneous investors' overconfidence.Design/methodology/approach-This paper divides the traders of gold futures market into two kinds:the speculators and arbitrageurs,and then constructs a market equilibrium model of futures pricing to analyze the behaviors of the two kinds of traders with overconfidence.After getting the decision-making function,the market equilibrium futures price is attained on the condition of market clearing.Then,this paper analyzes how the overconfidence impacts on futures price,volatility of the price of gold futures and the effects on individual utility.Findings-Under different market conditions,the overconfidence psychological impacts of heterogeneous investor on the price and volatility of futures are different,sometimes completely opposite.Originality/value-In the past literature,the relationships between overconfidence and the price or volatility are positive;however,the study shows that sometimes it is positive,and sometimes it is negative

  6. Empirical analysis on future-cash arbitrage risk with portfolio VaR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Rongda; Li, Cong; Wang, Weijin; Wang, Ze

    2014-03-01

    This paper constructs the positive arbitrage position by alternating the spot index with Chinese Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) portfolio and estimating the arbitrage-free interval of futures with the latest trade data. Then, an improved Delta-normal method was used, which replaces the simple linear correlation coefficient with tail dependence correlation coefficient, to measure VaR (Value-at-risk) of the arbitrage position. Analysis of VaR implies that the risk of future-cash arbitrage is less than that of investing completely in either futures or spot market. Then according to the compositional VaR and the marginal VaR, we should increase the futures position and decrease the spot position appropriately to minimize the VaR, which can minimize risk subject to certain revenues.

  7. Rosetta: Ensuring the Preservation and Usability of ASCII-based Data into the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramamurthy, M. K.; Arms, S. C.

    2015-12-01

    Field data obtained from dataloggers often take the form of comma separated value (CSV) ASCII text files. While ASCII based data formats have positive aspects, such as the ease of accessing the data from disk and the wide variety of tools available for data analysis, there are some drawbacks, especially when viewing the situation through the lens of data interoperability and stewardship. The Unidata data translation tool, Rosetta, is a web-based service that provides an easy, wizard-based interface for data collectors to transform their datalogger generated ASCII output into Climate and Forecast (CF) compliant netCDF files following the CF-1.6 discrete sampling geometries. These files are complete with metadata describing what data are contained in the file, the instruments used to collect the data, and other critical information that otherwise may be lost in one of many README files. The choice of the machine readable netCDF data format and data model, coupled with the CF conventions, ensures long-term preservation and interoperability, and that future users will have enough information to responsibly use the data. However, with the understanding that the observational community appreciates the ease of use of ASCII files, methods for transforming the netCDF back into a CSV or spreadsheet format are also built-in. One benefit of translating ASCII data into a machine readable format that follows open community-driven standards is that they are instantly able to take advantage of data services provided by the many open-source data server tools, such as the THREDDS Data Server (TDS). While Rosetta is currently a stand-alone service, this talk will also highlight efforts to couple Rosetta with the TDS, thus allowing self-publishing of thoroughly documented datasets by the data producers themselves.

  8. Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael R. Guzy

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon. Our exploration of alternative future scenarios suggests that policies that constrain urban growth and create incentives for farming and forest enterprises to preserve and enhance habitat can protect ecosystem resilience and services.

  9. Future orientation and smoking cessation: secondary analysis of data from a smoking cessation trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beenstock, Jane; Lindson-Hawley, Nicola; Aveyard, Paul; Adams, Jean

    2014-10-01

    To examine the association between future orientation (how individuals consider and value outcomes in the future) and smoking cessation at 4 weeks and 6 months post quit-date in individuals enrolled in a smoking cessation study. Cohort analysis of randomized controlled trial data. UK primary care. Adults aged ≥18 years smoking ≥15 cigarettes daily, prepared to quit in the next 2 weeks. Future orientation was measured prior to quitting and at 4 weeks post-quitting using the Consideration of Future Consequences Scale. Smoking cessation at 4 weeks and 6 months was confirmed biochemically. Those lost to follow-up were assumed to not be abstinent. Potential confounders adjusted for were: age, gender, educational attainment, nicotine dependence and longest previous period quit. A total of 697 participants provided data at baseline; 422 provided information on future orientation at 4 weeks. There was no evidence of an association between future orientation at baseline and abstinence at 4 weeks [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.05, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.80-1.38] or 6 months (aOR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.60-1.20). There was no change in future orientation from baseline to 4 weeks and no evidence that the change differed between those who were and were not quit at 4 weeks (adjusted regression coefficient = -0.04, 95% CI = -0.16 to 0.08). In smokers who are prepared to quit in the next 2 weeks, the extent of future orientation is unlikely to be a strong predictor of quitting over 4 weeks or 6 months and any increase in future orientation following quitting is likely to be small. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  10. The future of nuclear power in France: an analysis of the costs of phasing-out

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malischek, Raimund; Trüby, Johannes

    2016-01-01

    Nuclear power is an important pillar in electricity generation in France. However, the French nuclear power plant fleet is ageing, and the possibility of reducing the technology's share in power generation or even a complete phase-out has been increasingly discussed. This paper focuses on three inter-related questions: First, what are the costs of phasing-out nuclear power in France? Second, who has to bear these costs, i.e., how much of the costs will be passed on to the rest of the European power system? And third, what effect does the uncertainty regarding future nuclear policy in France have on system costs? Applying a stochastic optimization model for the European electricity system, the analysis showed that additional system costs in France of a nuclear phase-out amount up to 76 billion €_2_0_1_0. Additional costs are mostly borne by the French power system. Surprisingly, the analysis found that the costs of uncertainty are rather limited. Based on the results, it can be concluded that a commitment regarding nuclear policy reform is only mildly beneficial in terms of system cost savings. - Highlights: • Analysis of different nuclear policy and phase-out scenarios in France. • Nuclear policy uncertainty in France is treated using stochastic programming. • Costs of a nuclear phase-out in France are significant, amounting up to 76 bill €. • Costs of a phase-out are hardly passed on to the rest of the European power system. • Costs of uncertainty are low, implying little benefit of nuclear policy commitment.

  11. Best-fit analysis for future coral reef survivors on Bonaire: A lifeline to the reefs' future in the region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, C. C.; Elswick, E. R.; Beeker, C. D.; Kauffman, E. G.; Budziak, A. T.; Wiegand, N.

    2012-12-01

    /May and Nov/ Dec collections, and pH litmus 8.0 for all sites, all seasons. We further investigated the association of temperature, salinity and turbidity at site-specific locations and recorded differences in cation and anion water chemistry. Seasonal averages for T are 27.2oC for April/May and 28.1oC for Nov/Dec. Salinity seasonal averages are 37.4ppt for April/May and 36.7ppt for Nov/Dec; Mg/Ca (wt. ratio) exhibits seasonal variation; turbidity was 0 JTU for all sites, all collections. Our bioenvironmental database allows for ordination analysis of coral species with specific water chemistry conditions. Family Faviidae (Diploria labrynthiformis, D. strigosa), with origins in the mid-Jurassic geologic record, dominates the occurrences, followed by Family Poritidae (Porites asteroides) and Family Agariciidae, but great variability exists across sites. Nitrates, nitrites and phosphates, local human stressors, have variable effect on coral presence and persistence. The database provides the best-fit analysis for future survivors under climate change conditions and may be the lifeline to the reefs' future in this region.

  12. Importance-performance analysis based SWOT analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Phadermrod, Boonyarat; Crowder, Richard M.; Wills, Gary B.

    2016-01-01

    SWOT analysis, a commonly used tool for strategic planning, is traditionally a form of brainstorming. Hence, it has been criticised that it is likely to hold subjective views of the individuals who participate in a brainstorming session and that SWOT factors are not prioritized by their significance thus it may result in an improper strategic action. While most studies of SWOT analysis have only focused on solving these shortcomings separately, this study offers an approach to diminish both s...

  13. Comparative Analysis of Pedagogical Technologies in the Context of Future Agrarians' Multicultural Education in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kravets, Ruslan

    2015-01-01

    In the article the comparative analysis of pedagogical technologies in the USA has been carried out in the context of future agrarians' multicultural education. The essence of traditional and innovative pedagogical technologies and the peculiarities of their realization at higher educational establishments have been viewed. The expediency of…

  14. Impacts and Implications of Future-oriented Technology Analysis for Policy and Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    SARITAS Ozcan; CAGNIN CRISTIANO; HAVAS Attila; MILES Ian

    2009-01-01

    Most of the papers in this special issue were presented at the Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) that took place in October 2008. They address a wide variety of issues in FTA including methods and policy and governance impacts with discussions and demonstrations at the regional and corporate levels.

  15. The plunge in German electricity futures prices – Analysis using a parsimonious fundamental model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kallabis, Thomas; Pape, Christian; Weber, Christoph

    2016-01-01

    The German market has seen a plunge in wholesale electricity prices from 2007 until 2014, with base futures prices dropping by more than 40%. This is frequently attributed to the unexpected high increase in renewable power generation. Using a parsimonious fundamental model, we determine the respective impact of supply and demand shocks on electricity futures prices. The used methodology is based on a piecewise linear approximation of the supply stack and time-varying price-inelastic demand. This parsimonious model is able to replicate electricity futures prices and discover non-linear dependencies in futures price formation. We show that emission prices have a higher impact on power prices than renewable penetration. Changes in renewables, demand and installed capacities turn out to be similarly important for explaining the decrease in operation margins of conventional power plants. We thus argue for the establishment of an independent authority to stabilize emission prices. - Highlights: •We build a parsimonious fundamental model based on a piecewise linear bid stack. •We use the model to investigate impact factors for the plunge in German futures prices. •Largest impact by CO_2 price developments followed by demand and renewable feed-in. •Power plant operating profits strongly affected by demand and renewables. •We argue that stabilizing CO_2 emission prices could provide better market signals.

  16. Web-based access, aggregation, and visualization of future climate projections with emphasis on agricultural assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villoria, Nelson B.; Elliott, Joshua; Müller, Christoph; Shin, Jaewoo; Zhao, Lan; Song, Carol

    2018-01-01

    Access to climate and spatial datasets by non-specialists is restricted by technical barriers involving hardware, software and data formats. We discuss an open-source online tool that facilitates downloading the climate data from the global circulation models used by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. The tool also offers temporal and spatial aggregation capabilities for incorporating future climate scenarios in applications where spatial aggregation is important. We hope that streamlined access to these data facilitates analysis of climate related issues while considering the uncertainties derived from future climate projections and temporal aggregation choices.

  17. Investment in the future electricity system - An agent-based modelling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kraan, O.; Kramer, G. J.; Nikolic, I.

    2018-01-01

    Now that renewable technologies are both technically and commercially mature, the imperfect rational behaviour of investors becomes a critical factor in the future success of the energy transition. Here, we take an agent-based approach to model investor decision making in the electricity sector

  18. The Importance of Future Kindergarten Teachers' Beliefs about the Usefulness of Games Based Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manessis, Dionysios

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines the importance of future kindergarten teachers' beliefs about the usefulness of Games Based Learning in Early Childhood Education. Data were collected by using questionnaires which were given to the participants at the end of an introductory level, Information and Communication Technologies course. The sample of this study was…

  19. Incorporating stakeholder perspectives into model-based scenarios : Exploring the futures of the Dutch gas sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eker, S.; van Daalen, C.; Thissen, W.A.H.

    2017-01-01

    Several model-based, analytical approaches have been developed recently to deal with the deep uncertainty present in situations for which futures studies are conducted. These approaches focus on covering a wide variety of scenarios and searching for robust strategies. However, they generally do

  20. Flexible Pedagogies: Employer Engagement and Work-Based Learning. Flexible Pedagogies: Preparing for the Future Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettle, Jane

    2013-01-01

    This publication focuses on national and international policy initiatives to develop a better understanding of work-based learners and the types of flexibility that may well enhance their study especially pedagogically. As part of our five-strand research project "Flexible Pedagogies: preparing for the future" it: (1) highlights the…

  1. Enhancing Student Motivation: A Longitudinal Intervention Study Based on Future Time Perspective Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuitema, Jaap; Peetsma, Thea; van der Veen, Ineke

    2014-01-01

    The authors investigated the effects of an intervention developed to enhance student motivation in the first years of secondary education. The intervention, based on future time perspective (FTP) theory, has been found to be effective in prevocational secondary education (T. T. D. Peetsma & I. Van der Veen, 2008, 2009). The authors extend the…

  2. A Theme-Based Course: Hydrogen as the Fuel of the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, Mary Jane; Kelly, Matthew; Paritsky, Leonid; Wagner, Julia

    2009-01-01

    A theme-based course focusing on the potential role of hydrogen as a future fuel is described. Numerous topics included in typical introductory courses can be directly related to the issue of hydrogen energy. Beginning topics include Avogadro's number, the mole, atomic mass, gas laws, and the role of electrons in chemical transformations. Reaction…

  3. Study on spillover effect of copper futures between LME and SHFE using wavelet multiresolution analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Research on information spillover effects between financial markets remains active in the economic community. A Granger-type model has recently been used to investigate the spillover between London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), however, possible correlation between the future price and return on different time scales have been ignored. In this paper, wavelet multiresolution decomposition is used to investigate the spillover effects of copper future returns between the two markets. The daily return time series are decomposed on 2n (n=1, ..., 6) frequency bands through wavelet multiresolution analysis. The correlation between the two markets is studied with decomposed data. It is shown that high frequency detail components represent much more energy than low-frequency smooth components. The relation between copper future daily returns in LME and that in SHFE are different on different time scales. The fluctuations of the copper future daily returns in LME have large effect on that in SHFE in 32-day scale, but small effect in high frequency scales. It also has evidence that strong effects exist between LME and SHFE for monthly responses of the copper futures but not for daily responses.

  4. Future Arctic marine access: analysis and evaluation of observations, models, and projections of sea ice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. S. Rogers

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available There is an emerging need for regional applications of sea ice projections to provide more accuracy and greater detail to scientists, national, state and local planners, and other stakeholders. The present study offers a prototype for a comprehensive, interdisciplinary study to bridge observational data, climate model simulations, and user needs. The study's first component is an observationally based evaluation of Arctic sea ice trends during 1980–2008, with an emphasis on seasonal and regional differences relative to the overall pan-Arctic trend. Regional sea ice loss has varied, with a significantly larger decline of winter maximum (January–March extent in the Atlantic region than in other sectors. A lead–lag regression analysis of Atlantic sea ice extent and ocean temperatures indicates that reduced sea ice extent is associated with increased Atlantic Ocean temperatures. Correlations between the two variables are greater when ocean temperatures lag rather than lead sea ice. The performance of 13 global climate models is evaluated using three metrics to compare sea ice simulations with the observed record. We rank models over the pan-Arctic domain and regional quadrants and synthesize model performance across several different studies. The best performing models project reduced ice cover across key access routes in the Arctic through 2100, with a lengthening of seasons for marine operations by 1–3 months. This assessment suggests that the Northwest and Northeast Passages hold potential for enhanced marine access to the Arctic in the future, including shipping and resource development opportunities.

  5. Mental Health Smartphone Apps: Review and Evidence-Based Recommendations for Future Developments

    OpenAIRE

    Bakker, David; Kazantzis, Nikolaos; Rickwood, Debra; Rickard, Nikki

    2016-01-01

    Background The number of mental health apps (MHapps) developed and now available to smartphone users has increased in recent years. MHapps and other technology-based solutions have the potential to play an important part in the future of mental health care; however, there is no single guide for the development of evidence-based MHapps. Many currently available MHapps lack features that would greatly improve their functionality, or include features that are not optimized. Furthermore, MHapp de...

  6. Analysis of Balancing Requirements in Future Sustainable and Reliable Power Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frunt, J.

    2011-06-01

    This thesis elaborates on the rules for power balancing, provides a method for quantifying balancing requirements and examines the effect of future changes on balancing. Chapter 2 elaborates on system balancing and the different actors and entities in the electricity delivery system. The necessity and implementation of power balancing are explained. Also different subsequent markets (i.e., day-ahead markets, intraday markets and imbalance settlement systems) and options to trade electricity are discussed. As the research focusses mainly on the Netherlands, properties of the Dutch imbalance settlement system are analyzed. Based on this framework an in-depth analysis of imbalances and calls for balancing capacity with the corresponding prices is given. This shows the incentives to minimize the amount of imbalance in the system and to participate in the imbalance settlement system. Chapter 3 elaborates on the level of aggregation that the entities, involved in the imbalance settlement system, in electricity markets can have. Based on current market rules, incentives to either grow or shrink and by aggregating more or less entities are discussed. The level of aggregation will directly influence the functioning of the imbalance settlement system. It is shown that larger aggregations benefit more from the canceling out of imbalances. The imbalances of the Netherlands and Belgium have been aggregated to illustrate the possible benefits of aggregating multiple national imbalance settlement systems. The increased penetration of renewable generation strongly influences the planning and operation of the power system. As many renewable energy generators have a fluctuating power output, several methods are discussed in chapter 4 that can be used to classify and quantify the balancing requirements to counteract these fluctuations. Chapter 4 discusses the multiple existing classes of balancing capacity and the corresponding methods to quantify their needs. Due to the

  7. Analysis of Balancing Requirements in Future Sustainable and Reliable Power Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frunt, J.

    2011-01-01

    This thesis elaborates on the rules for power balancing, provides a method for quantifying balancing requirements and examines the effect of future changes on balancing. Chapter 2 elaborates on system balancing and the different actors and entities in the electricity delivery system. The necessity and implementation of power balancing are explained. Also different subsequent markets (i.e., day-ahead markets, intraday markets and imbalance settlement systems) and options to trade electricity are discussed. As the research focusses mainly on the Netherlands, properties of the Dutch imbalance settlement system are analyzed. Based on this framework an in-depth analysis of imbalances and calls for balancing capacity with the corresponding prices is given. This shows the incentives to minimize the amount of imbalance in the system and to participate in the imbalance settlement system. Chapter 3 elaborates on the level of aggregation that the entities, involved in the imbalance settlement system, in electricity markets can have. Based on current market rules, incentives to either grow or shrink and by aggregating more or less entities are discussed. The level of aggregation will directly influence the functioning of the imbalance settlement system. It is shown that larger aggregations benefit more from the canceling out of imbalances. The imbalances of the Netherlands and Belgium have been aggregated to illustrate the possible benefits of aggregating multiple national imbalance settlement systems. The increased penetration of renewable generation strongly influences the planning and operation of the power system. As many renewable energy generators have a fluctuating power output, several methods are discussed in chapter 4 that can be used to classify and quantify the balancing requirements to counteract these fluctuations. Chapter 4 discusses the multiple existing classes of balancing capacity and the corresponding methods to quantify their needs. Due to the

  8. HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

  9. Sensor Network-Based and User-Friendly User Location Discovery for Future Smart Homes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahvar, Ehsan; Lee, Gyu Myoung; Han, Son N; Crespi, Noel; Khan, Imran

    2016-06-27

    User location is crucial context information for future smart homes where many location based services will be proposed. This location necessarily means that User Location Discovery (ULD) will play an important role in future smart homes. Concerns about privacy and the need to carry a mobile or a tag device within a smart home currently make conventional ULD systems uncomfortable for users. Future smart homes will need a ULD system to consider these challenges. This paper addresses the design of such a ULD system for context-aware services in future smart homes stressing the following challenges: (i) users' privacy; (ii) device-/tag-free; and (iii) fault tolerance and accuracy. On the other hand, emerging new technologies, such as the Internet of Things, embedded systems, intelligent devices and machine-to-machine communication, are penetrating into our daily life with more and more sensors available for use in our homes. Considering this opportunity, we propose a ULD system that is capitalizing on the prevalence of sensors for the home while satisfying the aforementioned challenges. The proposed sensor network-based and user-friendly ULD system relies on different types of inexpensive sensors, as well as a context broker with a fuzzy-based decision-maker. The context broker receives context information from different types of sensors and evaluates that data using the fuzzy set theory. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed system by illustrating a use case, utilizing both an analytical model and simulation.

  10. Sensor Network-Based and User-Friendly User Location Discovery for Future Smart Homes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehsan Ahvar

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available User location is crucial context information for future smart homes where many location based services will be proposed. This location necessarily means that User Location Discovery (ULD will play an important role in future smart homes. Concerns about privacy and the need to carry a mobile or a tag device within a smart home currently make conventional ULD systems uncomfortable for users. Future smart homes will need a ULD system to consider these challenges. This paper addresses the design of such a ULD system for context-aware services in future smart homes stressing the following challenges: (i users’ privacy; (ii device-/tag-free; and (iii fault tolerance and accuracy. On the other hand, emerging new technologies, such as the Internet of Things, embedded systems, intelligent devices and machine-to-machine communication, are penetrating into our daily life with more and more sensors available for use in our homes. Considering this opportunity, we propose a ULD system that is capitalizing on the prevalence of sensors for the home while satisfying the aforementioned challenges. The proposed sensor network-based and user-friendly ULD system relies on different types of inexpensive sensors, as well as a context broker with a fuzzy-based decision-maker. The context broker receives context information from different types of sensors and evaluates that data using the fuzzy set theory. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed system by illustrating a use case, utilizing both an analytical model and simulation.

  11. The Soldier-Cyborg Transformation: A Framework for Analysis of Social and Ethical Issues of Future Warfare

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-05-26

    government agency. STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT THE SOLDIER- CYBORG TRANSFORMATION: A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL AND ETHICAL ISSUES OF FUTURE...UNCLASSIFIED USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT THE SOLDIER- CYBORG TRANSFORMATION: A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL AND ETHICAL ISSUES OF FUTURE...P) Donald A. Gagliano, M.D. TITLE: THE SOLDIER CYBORG TRANSFORMATION: A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL AND ETHICAL ISSUES OF FUTURE WARFARE

  12. Forming Attitudes That Predict Future Behavior: A Meta-Analysis of the Attitude–Behavior Relation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasman, Laura R.; Albarracín, Dolores

    2016-01-01

    A meta-analysis (k of conditions = 128; N = 4,598) examined the influence of factors present at the time an attitude is formed on the degree to which this attitude guides future behavior. The findings indicated that attitudes correlated with a future behavior more strongly when they were easy to recall (accessible) and stable over time. Because of increased accessibility, attitudes more strongly predicted future behavior when participants had direct experience with the attitude object and reported their attitudes frequently. Because of the resulting attitude stability, the attitude–behavior association was strongest when attitudes were confident, when participants formed their attitude on the basis of behavior-relevant information, and when they received or were induced to think about one- rather than two-sided information about the attitude object. PMID:16910754

  13. METHODOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF STUDYING THE PROBLEM OF PERCEPTION IN FUTURE MUSIC TEACHERS’ PROFESSIONAL TRAINING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Bo

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In the article the methodological analysis of problem of perception in future music teachers’ professional training is presented. The author of the article analyses works of outstanding scientists in philosophy, psychology, and art education. The hierarchical system of musical perception options is revealed. A methodological foundation is supported by consideration of the following modern research in specialty – a theory and methodology of musical study that gives proper appearance and circumstantiality to the presented material. Studying the vocal and choral researches in the field of forming the valued music art perception by future music teachers, an author sets an aim to present the methodological analysis of the problem of perception in future music teachers’ professional training. Realization of the system approach to updating the problem of forming the valued music art perception of future music teachers while being trained to vocal and choral work with senior pupils extends their artistic awareness; contributes to distinguishing art works, phenomena; to seeing their properties; to providing orientation in the informative content of music art works. The special attention is paid to revealing methodological principles of perception of category research in the aspect of the valued understanding images of music art works. As a result of analysing scientific sources on the issue of voice production the author of the article finds out that perception is densely related to transformation of external information, conditioning for forming images, operating category attention, memory, thinking, and emotions. The features of perception of maintaining vocal and choral studies and students’ extrapolation are analysed in the process of future professional activity with senior pupils in the aspects of perception and transformation of musical and intonation information, analysis, object perception, and interpretation in accordance with future

  14. FutureCoast: "Listen to your futures"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfirman, S. L.; Eklund, K.; Thacher, S.; Orlove, B. S.; Diane Stovall-Soto, G.; Brunacini, J.; Hernandez, T.

    2014-12-01

    Two science-arts approaches are emerging as effective means to convey "futurethinking" to learners: systems gaming and experiential futures. FutureCoast exemplifies the latter: by engaging participants with voicemails supposedly leaking from the cloud of possible futures, the storymaking game frames the complexities of climate science in relatable contexts. Because participants make the voicemails themselves, FutureCoast opens up creative ways for people to think about possibly climate-changed futures and personal ways to talk about them. FutureCoast is a project of the PoLAR Partnership with a target audience of informal adult learners primarily reached via mobile devices and online platforms. Scientists increasingly use scenarios and storylines as ways to explore the implications of environmental change and societal choices. Stories help people make connections across experiences and disciplines and link large-scale events to personal consequences. By making the future seem real today, FutureCoast's framework helps people visualize and plan for future climate changes. The voicemails contributed to FutureCoast are spread through the game's intended timeframe (2020 through 2065). Based on initial content analysis of voicemail text, common themes include ecosystems and landscapes, weather, technology, societal issues, governance and policy. Other issues somewhat less frequently discussed include security, food, industry and business, health, energy, infrastructure, water, economy, and migration. Further voicemail analysis is examining: temporal dimensions (salient time frames, short vs. long term issues, intergenerational, etc.), content (adaptation vs. mitigation, challenges vs. opportunities, etc.), and emotion (hopeful, resigned, etc. and overall emotional context). FutureCoast also engaged audiences through facilitated in-person experiences, geocaching events, and social media (Tumblr, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube). Analysis of the project suggests story-based

  15. Visions of Alternative (Unpredictable Futures and Their Use in Policy Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Costanza

    2000-07-01

    Full Text Available The most critical task facing humanity today is the creation of a shared vision of a sustainable and desirable society, one that can provide permanent prosperity within the biophysical constraints of the real world in a way that is fair and equitable to all of humanity, to other species, and to future generations. Recent work with businesses and communities indicates that creating a shared vision is the most effective engine for change in the desired direction, yet most effort in "futures modeling" has focused on extrapolating past trends rather than envisioning alternative futures. Science and economics as applied to policy are in conflict more often over alternative visions of the world than purely "scientific" disagreements. Likewise, governance has gotten bogged down in mediating short term conflicts between special interests rather than its more basic role of creating broadly shared visions that can guide dispute resolution. This paper addresses the question of what policies are most appropriate for society now, given alternative visions of the future and the enormous uncertainty about the reality of the assumptions underlying these visions. Four specific visions are laid out as being representative of the major alternatives. For each vision the benefits of achieving the vision, the assumptions that would have to be true in order for it to be achieved, and the implications of it being attempted but not achieved are explored. It is argued that dealing with uncertainty about the nature of the world, its carrying capacity for humans, the impacts of climate change, and other aspects of its future can best be done at this level of future visions and assumptions, not at more detailed levels (like the parameter uncertainty in models. Application of this vision/uncertainty analysis can help us both to design the future society we want and to maximize the chances of our getting there safely.

  16. Future Urban Climate Projection in A Tropical Megacity Based on Global and Regional Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.

    2017-12-01

    Cities in Asian developing countries experience rapid transformation in urban morphology and energy consumption, which correspondingly affects urban climate. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) in the tropic Jakarta Greater Area was conducted. Simulation was conducted during the dry months from 2006 to 2015 and agreed well with point and satellite observation. The same technology coupled with pseudo global warming (PGW) method based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenario 2.6 and 8.5 was conducted to produce futuristic climate condition in 2050. Projected urban morphology and AHE in 2050s were constructed using regional urban growing model with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) among its inputs. Compact future urban configuration, based on SSP1, was coupled to RCP2.6. Unrestrained future urban configuration, based on SSP3, was coupled to RCP8.5. Results show that background warming from RCP 2.6 and 8.5 will increase background temperature by 0.55°C and 1.2°C throughout the region, respectively. Future projection of urban sprawl results to an additional 0.3°C and 0.5°C increase on average, with maximum increase of 1.1°C and 1.3°C due to urban effect for RCP2.6/compact and RCP8.5/unrestrained, respectively. Higher moisture content in urban area is indicated in the future due to higher evaporation. Change in urban roughness is likely affect slower wind velocity in urban area and sea breeze front inland penetration the future compare with current condition. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

  17. Future changes in the Baltic Sea acid–base (pH and oxygen balances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anders Omstedt

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Possible future changes in Baltic Sea acid–base (pH and oxygen balances were studied using a catchment–sea coupled model system and numerical experiments based on meteorological and hydrological forcing datasets and scenarios. By using objective statistical methods, climate runs for present climate conditions were examined and evaluated using Baltic Sea modelling. The results indicate that increased nutrient loads will not inhibit future Baltic Sea acidification; instead, the seasonal pH cycle will be amplified by increased biological production and mineralization. All examined scenarios indicate future acidification of the whole Baltic Sea that is insensitive to the chosen global climate model. The main factor controlling the direction and magnitude of future pH changes is atmospheric CO2 concentration (i.e. emissions. Climate change and land-derived changes (e.g. nutrient loads affect acidification mainly by altering the seasonal cycle and deep-water conditions. Apart from decreasing pH, we also project a decreased saturation state of calcium carbonate, decreased respiration index and increasing hypoxic area – all factors that will threaten the marine ecosystem. We demonstrate that substantial reductions in fossil-fuel burning are needed to minimise the coming pH decrease and that substantial reductions in nutrient loads are needed to reduce the coming increase in hypoxic and anoxic waters.

  18. Developing a vision and strategic action plan for future community-based residency training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skelton, Jann B; Owen, James A

    2016-01-01

    The Community Pharmacy Residency Program (CPRP) Planning Committee convened to develop a vision and a strategic action plan for the advancement of community pharmacy residency training. Aligned with the profession's efforts to achieve provider status and expand access to care, the Future Vision and Action Plan for Community-based Residency Training will provide guidance, direction, and a strategic action plan for community-based residency training to ensure that the future needs of community-based pharmacist practitioners are met. National thought leaders, selected because of their leadership in pharmacy practice, academia, and residency training, served on the planning committee. The committee conducted a series of conference calls and an in-person strategic planning meeting held on January 13-14, 2015. Outcomes from the discussions were supplemented with related information from the literature. Results of a survey of CPRP directors and preceptors also informed the planning process. The vision and strategic action plan for community-based residency training is intended to advance training to meet the emerging needs of patients in communities that are served by the pharmacy profession. The group anticipated the advanced skills required of pharmacists serving as community-based pharmacist practitioners and the likely education, training and competencies required by future residency graduates in order to deliver these services. The vision reflects a transformation of community residency training, from CPRPs to community-based residency training, and embodies the concept that residency training should be primarily focused on training the individual pharmacist practitioner based on the needs of patients served within the community, and not on the physical location where pharmacy services are provided. The development of a vision statement, core values statements, and strategic action plan will provide support, guidance, and direction to the profession of pharmacy to

  19. Energy futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Treat, J.E.

    1990-01-01

    This book provides fifteen of the futures industry's leading authorities with broader background in both theory and practice of energy futures trading in this updated text. The authors review the history of the futures market and the fundamentals of trading, hedging, and technical analysis; then they update you with the newest trends in energy futures trading - natural gas futures, options, regulations, and new information services. The appendices outline examples of possible contracts and their construction

  20. A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of price discovery in commodity futures markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dolatabadi, Sepideh; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Xu, Ke

    straightforward examination of the adjustment coefficients. In our empirical analysis we use the data from Figuerola-Ferretti and Gonzalo (2010), who conduct a similar analysis using the usual (non-fractional) CVAR model. Our first finding is that, for all markets except copper, the fractional integration......In this paper we apply the recently developed fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model to analyze price discovery in the spot and futures markets for five non-ferrous metals (aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc). The FCVAR model allows for long memory (fractional...... to the results from the non-fractional model, we find slightly more evidence of price discovery in the spot market. Specifically, using standard likelihood ratio tests, we do not reject the hypothesis that price discovery takes place exclusively in the spot (futures) market for copper, lead, and zinc (aluminium...

  1. Assessing the impacts of current and future concentrations of surface ozone on crop yield with meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Zhaozhong; Kobayashi, Kazuhiko

    Meta-analysis was conducted to quantitatively assess the effects of rising ozone concentrations ([O 3]) on yield and yield components of major food crops: potato, barley, wheat, rice, bean and soybean in 406 experimental observations. Yield loss of the crops under current and future [O 3] was expressed relative to the yield under base [O 3] (≤26 ppb). With potato, current [O 3] (31-50 ppb) reduced the yield by 5.3%, and it reduced the yield of barley, wheat and rice by 8.9%, 9.7% and 17.5%, respectively. In bean and soybean, the yield losses were 19.0% and 7.7%, respectively. Compared with yield loss at current [O 3], future [O 3] (51-75 ppb) drove a further 10% loss in yield of soybean, wheat and rice, and 20% loss in bean. Mass of individual grain, seed, or tuber was often the major cause of the yield loss at current and future [O 3], whereas other yield components also contributed to the yield loss in some cases. No significant difference was found between the responses in crops grown in pots and those in the ground for any yield parameters. The ameliorating effect of elevated [CO 2] was significant in the yields of wheat and potato, and the individual grain weight in wheat exposed to future [O 3]. These findings confirm the rising [O 3] as a threat to food security for the growing global population in this century.

  2. Performance of Modular Prefabricated Architecture: Case Study-Based Review and Future Pathways

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred Edmond Boafo

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Even though tightened building energy efficiency standards are implemented periodically in many countries, existing buildings continually consume a momentous quota of the total primary energy. Energy efficiency solutions range from material components to bulk systems. A technique of building construction, referred to as prefabricated architecture (prefab, is increasing in reputation. Prefab encompasses the offsite fabrication of building components to a greater degree of finish as bulk building structures and systems, and their assembly on-site. In this context, prefab improves the speed of construction, quality of architecture, efficiency of materials, and worker safety, while limiting environmental impacts of construction, as compared to conventional site-built construction practices. Quite recently, a 57 story skyscraper was built in 19 days using prefabricated modules. From the building physics point of view, the bulk systems and tighter integration method of prefab minimizes thermal bridges. This study seeks to clearly characterize the levels of prefab and to investigate the performance of modular prefab; considering acoustic constrain, seismic resistance, thermal behavior, energy consumption, and life cycle analysis of existing prefab cases and, thus, provides a dynamic case study-based review. Generally, prefab can be categorized into components, panels (2D, modules (3D, hybrids, and unitized whole buildings. On average, greenhouse gas emissions from conventional construction were higher than for modular construction, not discounting some individual discrepancies. Few studies have focused on monitored data on prefab and occupants’ comfort but additional studies are required to understand the public’s perception of the technology. The scope of the work examined will be of interest to building engineers, manufacturers, and energy experts, as well as serve as a foundational reference for future study.

  3. Understanding China’s past and future energy demand: An exergy efficiency and decomposition analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brockway, Paul E.; Steinberger, Julia K.; Barrett, John R.; Foxon, Timothy J.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We complete the first time series exergy and useful work study of China (1971–2010). • Novel exergy approach to understand China’s past and future energy consumption. • China’s exergy efficiency rose from 5% to 13%, and is now above US (11%). • Decomposition finds this is due to structural change not technical leapfrogging. • Results suggests current models may underestimate China’s future energy demand. - Abstract: There are very few useful work and exergy analysis studies for China, and fewer still that consider how the results inform drivers of past and future energy consumption. This is surprising: China is the world’s largest energy consumer, whilst exergy analysis provides a robust thermodynamic framework for analysing the technical efficiency of energy use. In response, we develop three novel sub-analyses. First we perform a long-term whole economy time-series exergy analysis for China (1971–2010). We find a 10-fold growth in China’s useful work since 1971, which is supplied by a 4-fold increase in primary energy coupled to a 2.5-fold gain in aggregate exergy conversion efficiency to useful work: from 5% to 12.5%. Second, using index decomposition we expose the key driver of efficiency growth as not ‘technological leapfrogging’ but structural change: i.e. increasing reliance on thermodynamically efficient (but very energy intensive) heavy industrial activities. Third, we extend our useful work analysis to estimate China’s future primary energy demand, and find values for 2030 that are significantly above mainstream projections

  4. Rising to the challenges-Reflections on Future-oriented Technology Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Georghiou, Luke; Cassingena Harper, Jennifer

    2013-01-01

    Drawing upon the presentations made at the fourth conference on Future-oriented Technology Analysis, this essay reflects on the implications of the current period of instability and discontinuity for the practice of FTA or foresight. In the past the demand environment for foresight on research and innovation policy favoured application to priority-setting and articulation of demand. New tendencies include a heightened search for breakthrough science and a focus on grand societal challenges. B...

  5. Cost development of future technologies for power generation-A study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neij, Lena

    2008-01-01

    Technology foresight studies have become an important tool in identifying realistic ways of reducing the impact of modern energy systems on the climate and the environment. Studies on the future cost development of advanced energy technologies are of special interest. One approach widely adopted for the analysis of future cost is the experience curve approach. The question is, however, how robust this approach is, and which experience curves should be used in energy foresight analysis. This paper presents an analytical framework for the analysis of future cost development of new energy technologies for electricity generation; the analytical framework is based on an assessment of available experience curves, complemented with bottom-up analysis of sources of cost reductions and, for some technologies, judgmental expert assessments of long-term development paths. The results of these three methods agree in most cases, i.e. the cost (price) reductions described by the experience curves match the incremental cost reduction described in the bottom-up analysis and the judgmental expert assessments. For some technologies, the bottom-up analysis confirms large uncertainties in future cost development not captured by the experience curves. Experience curves with a learning rate ranging from 0% to 20% are suggested for the analysis of future cost development

  6. A Vulnerability-Based, Bottom-up Assessment of Future Riverine Flood Risk Using a Modified Peaks-Over-Threshold Approach and a Physically Based Hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knighton, James; Steinschneider, Scott; Walter, M. Todd

    2017-12-01

    There is a chronic disconnection among purely probabilistic flood frequency analysis of flood hazards, flood risks, and hydrological flood mechanisms, which hamper our ability to assess future flood impacts. We present a vulnerability-based approach to estimating riverine flood risk that accommodates a more direct linkage between decision-relevant metrics of risk and the dominant mechanisms that cause riverine flooding. We adapt the conventional peaks-over-threshold (POT) framework to be used with extreme precipitation from different climate processes and rainfall-runoff-based model output. We quantify the probability that at least one adverse hydrologic threshold, potentially defined by stakeholders, will be exceeded within the next N years. This approach allows us to consider flood risk as the summation of risk from separate atmospheric mechanisms, and supports a more direct mapping between hazards and societal outcomes. We perform this analysis within a bottom-up framework to consider the relevance and consequences of information, with varying levels of credibility, on changes to atmospheric patterns driving extreme precipitation events. We demonstrate our proposed approach using a case study for Fall Creek in Ithaca, NY, USA, where we estimate the risk of stakeholder-defined flood metrics from three dominant mechanisms: summer convection, tropical cyclones, and spring rain and snowmelt. Using downscaled climate projections, we determine how flood risk associated with a subset of mechanisms may change in the future, and the resultant shift to annual flood risk. The flood risk approach we propose can provide powerful new insights into future flood threats.

  7. Multi-element analysis for environmental characterization and its future trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sansoni, B.

    1987-04-01

    Before starting to characterize the environment by its elemental composition, it may be useful to ask about the objective of these efforts. This includes questions about the scope of environmental protection, the definition of the environment and the limitations of its characterization by elemental composition alone. In the second part of this lecture, examples are given of the elemental composition of well analysed samples from the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere and biosphere. The third part introduces the principle of multi-element analysis and the fourth part gives examples. Finally, future aspects of modern chemical analysis are outlined with respect to the multi-element principle. (orig.)

  8. Preeclampsia and Future Cardiovascular Health: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Pensée; Haththotuwa, Randula; Kwok, Chun Shing; Babu, Aswin; Kotronias, Rafail A; Rushton, Claire; Zaman, Azfar; Fryer, Anthony A; Kadam, Umesh; Chew-Graham, Carolyn A; Mamas, Mamas A

    2017-02-01

    Preeclampsia is a pregnancy-specific disorder resulting in hypertension and multiorgan dysfunction. There is growing evidence that these effects persist after pregnancy. We aimed to systematically evaluate and quantify the evidence on the relationship between preeclampsia and the future risk of cardiovascular diseases. We studied the future risk of heart failure, coronary heart disease, composite cardiovascular disease, death because of coronary heart or cardiovascular disease, stroke, and stroke death after preeclampsia. A systematic search of MEDLINE and EMBASE was performed to identify relevant studies. We used random-effects meta-analysis to determine the risk. Twenty-two studies were identified with >6.4 million women including >258 000 women with preeclampsia. Meta-analysis of studies that adjusted for potential confounders demonstrated that preeclampsia was independently associated with an increased risk of future heart failure (risk ratio [RR], 4.19; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.09-8.38), coronary heart disease (RR, 2.50; 95% CI, 1.43-4.37), cardiovascular disease death (RR, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.83-2.66), and stroke (RR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.29-2.55). Sensitivity analyses showed that preeclampsia continued to be associated with an increased risk of future coronary heart disease, heart failure, and stroke after adjusting for age (RR, 3.89; 95% CI, 1.83-8.26), body mass index (RR, 3.16; 95% CI, 1.41-7.07), and diabetes mellitus (RR, 4.19; 95% CI, 2.09-8.38). Preeclampsia is associated with a 4-fold increase in future incident heart failure and a 2-fold increased risk in coronary heart disease, stroke, and death because of coronary heart or cardiovascular disease. Our study highlights the importance of lifelong monitoring of cardiovascular risk factors in women with a history of preeclampsia. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  9. The Fourth/Final-Year University Student Future Professional Career: Analysis of Factors and Personal Qualities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Lamanauskas

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Career management as a lifelong lasting process becomes very actual in today's modern society because of many reasons. The environment becomes turbulent, in a general sense; therefore, it is natural that career environment, basically, is chaotic as well. Nevertheless, career for many people is, undoubtedly, very important, because it is directly related to life quality. Professional activity satisfies almost all human needs: physiological, safety, social, attainment, self-realisation, independence, autonomy and other. The efficiency of the mentioned activity and the ability of the personality to construct his career are closely related things. Individual's career process studies are especially popular recently, because deeper career perception helps to understand the most important relations between man and work, career management and constant learning, helps not only to know man's abilities, but also the abilities to give oneself to modern environment, to understand career projection possibilities, to plan one's professional future. Seeking to analyse final-year university student position regarding career questions, a written form survey was carried out. The research was carried out between September 2015 and March 2016. The research sample (185 was structured applying a consecutive 'bunch' system. The respondents from three Lithuanian universities Klaipėda, Vilnius and Šiauliai, were selected in the sample. Professional career parameters were evaluated: career conception, the importance of work values and abilities, study influence, promoting and limiting factors and personal qualities. The research is grounded on a mixed strategy, when quantitative and qualitative research approach is combined. The obtained results, based on qualitative analysis, about professional personal career promoting and limiting factors and personal qualities are presented in this research.

  10. Essentials of single-cell analysis concepts, applications and future prospects

    CERN Document Server

    Santra, Tuhin

    2016-01-01

    This book provides an overview of single-cell isolation, separation, injection, lysis and dynamics analysis as well as a study of their heterogeneity using different miniaturized devices. As an important part of single-cell analysis, different techniques including electroporation, microinjection, optical trapping, optoporation, rapid electrokinetic patterning and optoelectronic tweezers are described in detail. It presents different fluidic systems (e.g. continuous micro/nano-fluidic devices, microfluidic cytometry) and their integration with sensor technology, optical and hydrodynamic stretchers etc., and demonstrates the applications of single-cell analysis in systems biology, proteomics, genomics, epigenomics, cancer transcriptomics, metabolomics, biomedicine and drug delivery systems. It also discusses the future challenges for single-cell analysis, including the advantages and limitations. This book is enjoyable reading material while at the same time providing essential information to scientists in acad...

  11. Voxel-Based LIDAR Analysis and Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagstrom, Shea T.

    One of the greatest recent changes in the field of remote sensing is the addition of high-quality Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) instruments. In particular, the past few decades have been greatly beneficial to these systems because of increases in data collection speed and accuracy, as well as a reduction in the costs of components. These improvements allow modern airborne instruments to resolve sub-meter details, making them ideal for a wide variety of applications. Because LIDAR uses active illumination to capture 3D information, its output is fundamentally different from other modalities. Despite this difference, LIDAR datasets are often processed using methods appropriate for 2D images and that do not take advantage of its primary virtue of 3-dimensional data. It is this problem we explore by using volumetric voxel modeling. Voxel-based analysis has been used in many applications, especially medical imaging, but rarely in traditional remote sensing. In part this is because the memory requirements are substantial when handling large areas, but with modern computing and storage this is no longer a significant impediment. Our reason for using voxels to model scenes from LIDAR data is that there are several advantages over standard triangle-based models, including better handling of overlapping surfaces and complex shapes. We show how incorporating system position information from early in the LIDAR point cloud generation process allows radiometrically-correct transmission and other novel voxel properties to be recovered. This voxelization technique is validated on simulated data using the Digital Imaging and Remote Sensing Image Generation (DIRSIG) software, a first-principles based ray-tracer developed at the Rochester Institute of Technology. Voxel-based modeling of LIDAR can be useful on its own, but we believe its primary advantage is when applied to problems where simpler surface-based 3D models conflict with the requirement of realistic geometry. To

  12. Mental Health Smartphone Apps: Review and Evidence-Based Recommendations for Future Developments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, David; Kazantzis, Nikolaos; Rickwood, Debra; Rickard, Nikki

    2016-03-01

    The number of mental health apps (MHapps) developed and now available to smartphone users has increased in recent years. MHapps and other technology-based solutions have the potential to play an important part in the future of mental health care; however, there is no single guide for the development of evidence-based MHapps. Many currently available MHapps lack features that would greatly improve their functionality, or include features that are not optimized. Furthermore, MHapp developers rarely conduct or publish trial-based experimental validation of their apps. Indeed, a previous systematic review revealed a complete lack of trial-based evidence for many of the hundreds of MHapps available. To guide future MHapp development, a set of clear, practical, evidence-based recommendations is presented for MHapp developers to create better, more rigorous apps. A literature review was conducted, scrutinizing research across diverse fields, including mental health interventions, preventative health, mobile health, and mobile app design. Sixteen recommendations were formulated. Evidence for each recommendation is discussed, and guidance on how these recommendations might be integrated into the overall design of an MHapp is offered. Each recommendation is rated on the basis of the strength of associated evidence. It is important to design an MHapp using a behavioral plan and interactive framework that encourages the user to engage with the app; thus, it may not be possible to incorporate all 16 recommendations into a single MHapp. Randomized controlled trials are required to validate future MHapps and the principles upon which they are designed, and to further investigate the recommendations presented in this review. Effective MHapps are required to help prevent mental health problems and to ease the burden on health systems.

  13. Temporal expression-based analysis of metabolism.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara B Collins

    Full Text Available Metabolic flux is frequently rerouted through cellular metabolism in response to dynamic changes in the intra- and extra-cellular environment. Capturing the mechanisms underlying these metabolic transitions in quantitative and predictive models is a prominent challenge in systems biology. Progress in this regard has been made by integrating high-throughput gene expression data into genome-scale stoichiometric models of metabolism. Here, we extend previous approaches to perform a Temporal Expression-based Analysis of Metabolism (TEAM. We apply TEAM to understanding the complex metabolic dynamics of the respiratorily versatile bacterium Shewanella oneidensis grown under aerobic, lactate-limited conditions. TEAM predicts temporal metabolic flux distributions using time-series gene expression data. Increased predictive power is achieved by supplementing these data with a large reference compendium of gene expression, which allows us to take into account the unique character of the distribution of expression of each individual gene. We further propose a straightforward method for studying the sensitivity of TEAM to changes in its fundamental free threshold parameter θ, and reveal that discrete zones of distinct metabolic behavior arise as this parameter is changed. By comparing the qualitative characteristics of these zones to additional experimental data, we are able to constrain the range of θ to a small, well-defined interval. In parallel, the sensitivity analysis reveals the inherently difficult nature of dynamic metabolic flux modeling: small errors early in the simulation propagate to relatively large changes later in the simulation. We expect that handling such "history-dependent" sensitivities will be a major challenge in the future development of dynamic metabolic-modeling techniques.

  14. Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

    2017-05-01

    The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

  15. Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

    2017-05-01

    The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha -1  h -1  yr -1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

  16. Technology-Based Healthcare for Nursing Education Within The Netherlands: Past, Present and Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, Ybranda; van Houwelingen, Cornelis T M

    2017-01-01

    At the present time, nearly all Dutch nursing schools are searching for suitable ways to implement technology-based healthcare in their curriculum. Some Universities chose elective education, others a mandatory solution. Several studies were executed to determine competencies needed by nurses in order to work with technology-based healthcare. In 2016 a nationwide new curriculum for nurses has been published. Providing technology-based healthcare is included under the core competencies of this new curriculum. All baccalaureate nursing educational institutes must implement this new curriculum at the start of 2016 which will have a huge impact on the implementation of technology-based healthcare in the education programs. In the future, technology centers from Universities will collaborate and specialize, partner with technology companies and crossovers between information and communication technology and healthcare education will be expanded.

  17. Analysis of the Dynamic Evolutionary Behavior of American Heating Oil Spot and Futures Price Fluctuation Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huan Chen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Heating oil is an extremely important heating fuel to consumers in northeastern United States. This paper studies the fluctuations law and dynamic behavior of heating oil spot and futures prices by setting up their complex network models based on the data of America in recent 30 years. Firstly, modes are defined by the method of coarse graining, the spot price fluctuation network of heating oil (HSPFN and its futures price fluctuation network (HFPFN in different periods are established to analyze the transformation characteristics between the modes. Secondly, several indicators are investigated: average path length, node strength and strength distribution, betweeness, etc. In addition, a function is established to measure and analyze the network similarity. The results show the cumulative time of new nodes appearing in either spot or futures price network is not random but exhibits a growth trend of straight line. Meanwhile, the power law distributions of spot and futures price fluctuations in different periods present regularity and complexity. Moreover, these prices are strongly correlated in stable fluctuation period but weak in the phase of sharp fluctuation. Finally, the time distribution characteristics of important modes in the networks and the evolution results of the topological properties mentioned above are obtained.

  18. The role of an exergy-based building stock model for exploration of future decarbonisation scenarios and policy making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    García Kerdan, Iván; Raslan, Rokia; Ruyssevelt, Paul; Morillón Gálvez, David

    2017-01-01

    State-of-the-art research suggests that energy systems are best evaluated using exergy analysis, as exergy represents the real value of an energy source, demonstrating it to be the only rational basis for evaluation. After discovering the lack of thermodynamic integration into stock modelling, this paper presents the development of an exergy-based building stock model. The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to investigate the impact of large-scale future energy retrofit scenarios in the English and Welsh (E&W) non-domestic sector, and secondly, to determine the potential of exergy analysis in improving sectoral efficiency and its potential implications on exergy-oriented policy making. The research explores seven different large-scale future retrofit scenarios that encompass typical, low-carbon, and low-exergy approaches. Modelling results show that by 2050, current regulations have the potential to reduce carbon emissions by up to 49.0±2.9% and increasing sector thermodynamic efficiency from 10.7% to 13.7%. On the other hand, a low-exergy oriented scenario based on renewable electricity and heat pumps is able to reduce carbon emissions by 88.2±2.4%, achieving a sectoral exergy efficiency of 19.8%. This modelling framework can provide energy policy makers with new insights on policy options based on exergy indicators and the assessment of their potential impact. - Highlights: • A bottom-up exergy-based model was developed to analyse the UK non-domestic sector. • Different low-carbon and low-exergy large-scale retrofit scenarios were assessed. • The UK non-domestic sector as a whole has an exergy efficiency of 10.7±4.06%. • Exergy-based retrofits could reduce sectoral carbon emissions by 88±2.4% for 2050. • Exergy oriented policies are required to obtain a sustainable building sector.

  19. Complex Wavelet Based Modulation Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luneau, Jean-Marc; Lebrun, Jérôme; Jensen, Søren Holdt

    2008-01-01

    Low-frequency modulation of sound carry important information for speech and music. The modulation spectrum i commonly obtained by spectral analysis of the sole temporal envelopes of the sub-bands out of a time-frequency analysis. Processing in this domain usually creates undesirable distortions...... polynomial trends. Moreover an analytic Hilbert-like transform is possible with complex wavelets implemented as an orthogonal filter bank. By working in an alternative transform domain coined as “Modulation Subbands”, this transform shows very promising denoising capabilities and suggests new approaches for joint...

  20. The analysis of the value orientation of the future teachers of physical education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deminskaya L.A.

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of the value orientation of the future teachers of physical education was carried out. The degree of importance for students of such values as: friendship, love, family - relationships with parents, study, hobbies, health was determined In the survey took part 512 students of 1-st and 2-nd courses. Students were proposed to rate each concept on a 5-point scale. It was determined that 40,3 % of students who took part in the survey as high as possible (for 5 points estimated for themselves the degree of value relationships with parents; approximately 40 % of students as high as possible (for 5 points estimated for themselves the degree of value health. The smallest number of students appreciate such values as friendship (9,85% and learning (5,36%. Such estimation of values indicates the necessity for adjustments in the process of professionally - pedagogical training of future teachers of physical education.

  1. Space Shuttle Launch Probability Analysis: Understanding History so We Can Predict the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cates, Grant R.

    2014-01-01

    The Space Shuttle was launched 135 times and nearly half of those launches required 2 or more launch attempts. The Space Shuttle launch countdown historical data of 250 launch attempts provides a wealth of data that is important to analyze for strictly historical purposes as well as for use in predicting future launch vehicle launch countdown performance. This paper provides a statistical analysis of all Space Shuttle launch attempts including the empirical probability of launch on any given attempt and the cumulative probability of launch relative to the planned launch date at the start of the initial launch countdown. This information can be used to facilitate launch probability predictions of future launch vehicles such as NASA's Space Shuttle derived SLS. Understanding the cumulative probability of launch is particularly important for missions to Mars since the launch opportunities are relatively short in duration and one must wait for 2 years before a subsequent attempt can begin.

  2. Swiss hydropower in competition - an analysis with reference to the future European power supply system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balmer, M.; Spreng, D.; Moest, D.

    2006-01-01

    This article takes a look at a number of questions in relation to the future use of Swiss hydropower that are neither clear nor unchallenged. Questions concerning the replacement or refurbishment of hydropower schemes that will have to be renewed in the next few years are asked. Also, developments in the European power market are looked at. The future influence of wind power, trading with CO 2 certificates, increases in the price of gas etc. are examined. An analysis of the competitiveness of Swiss hydropower with reference to the European power supply system that was made by the Centre for Energy Policy and Economics CEPE at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH is described. The 'Perseus'-model developed by CEPE and the Industrial Technology Institute at the University of Karlsruhe in Germany is used to analyse possible developments over the period up to 2030. The results are presented in graphical form and commented on

  3. Projecting Sexual and Injecting HIV Risks into Future Outcomes with Agent-Based Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobashev, Georgiy V.; Morris, Robert J.; Zule, William A.

    Longitudinal studies of health outcomes for HIV could be very costly cumbersome and not representative of the risk population. Conversely, cross-sectional approaches could be representative but rely on the retrospective information to estimate prevalence and incidence. We present an Agent-based Modeling (ABM) approach where we use behavioral data from a cross-sectional representative study and project the behavior into the future so that the risks of acquiring HIV could be studied in a dynamical/temporal sense. We show how the blend of behavior and contact network factors (sexual, injecting) play the role in the risk of future HIV acquisition and time till obtaining HIV. We show which subjects are the most likely persons to get HIV in the next year, and whom they are likely to infect. We examine how different behaviors are related to the increase or decrease of HIV risks and how to estimate the quantifiable risk measures such as survival HIV free.

  4. Adapting for uncertainty : a scenario analysis of U.S. technology energy futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laitner, J.A.; Hanson, D.A.; Mintzner, I.; Leonard, J.A.

    2006-01-01

    The pattern of future evolution for United States (US) energy markets is highly uncertain at this time. This article provided details of a study using a scenario analysis technique to investigate key energy issues affecting decision-making processes in the United States. Four scenarios were used to examine the driving forces and critical uncertainties that may shape United States energy markets and the economy for the next 50 years: (1) a reference scenario benchmarked to the 2002 annual energy outlook forecast, (2) abundant and inexpensive supplies of oil and gas, (3) a chaotic future beset with international conflict, faltering new technologies, environmental policy difficulties and slowed economic growth, and (4) a technology-driven market in which a variety of forces converge to reshape the energy sector. Each of the scenarios was quantified using a computable general equilibrium model known as the All Modular Industry Growth Assessment (AMIGA) model. Results suggested that the range of different outcomes for the US is broad. However, energy use is expected to increase in all 4 scenarios. It was observed that the introduction of policies to encourage capital stock turnover and accelerate the commercialization of high efficiency, low-emissions technologies may reduce future primary energy demand. The analysis also showed that lower energy prices may lead to higher economic growth. Policies introduced to improve energy efficiency and accelerate the introduction of new technologies did not appreciably reduce the prospects for economic growth. Results also suggested that lower fossil fuel prices discourage investments in energy efficiency or new technologies and may mask the task of responding to future surprises. It was concluded that an investment path that emphasizes both energy efficiency improvements and advanced energy supply technologies will provide economic growth conditions similar to the implementation of lower energy prices. 11 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs

  5. Cloudification of mmwave-based and packet-based fronthaul for future heterogeneous mobile networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Artuso, Matteo; Marcano, Andrea; Christiansen, Henrik Lehrmann

    2015-01-01

    is seen as an enabler for next-generation heterogeneous mobile networks. This allows for simpler base stations and savings in deployment costs, but introduces challenges in the fronthaul network connecting the sites to the processing pool. The fronthaul needs to have very low latency and high capacity......, but the traditional architecture of this network uses point-to-point links between each site and the pool, thus making it impossible to share capacity as the demands change. To address these challenges, a flexible network architecture for the fronthaul is presented that is based on Ethernet to carry the baseband......Current deployments of mobile networks are seriously challenged by increasing capacity demands, and traditional solutions are no longer practical. The use of small cells is considered as a viable technique to meet these demands. In this context, the use of centralized signal processing in a pool...

  6. Proposed Performance-Based Metrics for the Future Funding of Graduate Medical Education: Starting the Conversation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caverzagie, Kelly J; Lane, Susan W; Sharma, Niraj; Donnelly, John; Jaeger, Jeffrey R; Laird-Fick, Heather; Moriarty, John P; Moyer, Darilyn V; Wallach, Sara L; Wardrop, Richard M; Steinmann, Alwin F

    2017-12-12

    Graduate medical education (GME) in the United States is financed by contributions from both federal and state entities that total over $15 billion annually. Within institutions, these funds are distributed with limited transparency to achieve ill-defined outcomes. To address this, the Institute of Medicine convened a committee on the governance and financing of GME to recommend finance reform that would promote a physician training system that meets society's current and future needs. The resulting report provided several recommendations regarding the oversight and mechanisms of GME funding, including implementation of performance-based GME payments, but did not provide specific details about the content and development of metrics for these payments. To initiate a national conversation about performance-based GME funding, the authors asked: What should GME be held accountable for in exchange for public funding? In answer to this question, the authors propose 17 potential performance-based metrics for GME funding that could inform future funding decisions. Eight of the metrics are described as exemplars to add context and to help readers obtain a deeper understanding of the inherent complexities of performance-based GME funding. The authors also describe considerations and precautions for metric implementation.

  7. Analysis of environmental constraints on expanding reserves in current and future reservoirs in wetlands. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harder, B.J.

    1995-03-01

    Louisiana wetlands require careful management to allow exploitation of non-renewable resources without destroying renewable resources. Current regulatory requirements have been moderately successful in meeting this goal by restricting development in wetland habitats. Continuing public emphasis on reducing environmental impacts of resource development is causing regulators to reassess their regulations and operators to rethink their compliance strategies. We examined the regulatory system and found that reducing the number of applications required by going to a single application process and having a coherent map of the steps required for operations in wetland areas would reduce regulatory burdens. Incremental changes can be made to regulations to allow one agency to be the lead for wetland permitting at minimal cost to operators. Operators need cost effective means of access that will reduce environmental impacts, decrease permitting time, and limit future liability. Regulators and industry must partner to develop incentive based regulations that can provide significant environmental impact reduction for minimal economic cost. In addition regulators need forecasts of future E&P trends to estimate the impact of future regulations. To determine future activity we attempted to survey potential operators when this approach was unsuccessful we created two econometric models of north and south Louisiana relating drilling activity, success ratio, and price to predict future wetland activity. Results of the econometric models indicate that environmental regulations have a small but statistically significant effect on drilling operations in wetland areas of Louisiana. We examined current wetland practices and evaluated those practices comparing environmental versus economic costs and created a method for ranking the practices.

  8. Energy analysis for a sustainable future multi-scale integrated analysis of societal and ecosystem metabolism

    CERN Document Server

    Giampietro, Mario; Sorman, Alevgül H

    2013-01-01

    The vast majority of the countries of the world are now facing an imminent energy crisis, particularly the USA, China, India, Japan and EU countries, but also developing countries having to boost their economic growth precisely when more powerful economies will prevent them from using the limited supply of fossil energy. Despite this crisis, current protocols of energy accounting have been developed for dealing with fossil energy exclusively and are therefore not useful for the analysis of alternative energy sources. The first part of the book illustrates the weakness of existing analyses of energy problems: the science of energy was born and developed neglecting the issue of scale. The authors argue that it is necessary to adopt more complex protocols of accounting and analysis in order to generate robust energy scenarios and effective assessments of the quality of alternative energy sources. The second part of the book introduces the concept of energetic metabolism of modern societies and uses empirical res...

  9. CONTEXT BASED FOOD IMAGE ANALYSIS

    OpenAIRE

    He, Ye; Xu, Chang; Khanna, Nitin; Boushey, Carol J.; Delp, Edward J.

    2013-01-01

    We are developing a dietary assessment system that records daily food intake through the use of food images. Recognizing food in an image is difficult due to large visual variance with respect to eating or preparation conditions. This task becomes even more challenging when different foods have similar visual appearance. In this paper we propose to incorporate two types of contextual dietary information, food co-occurrence patterns and personalized learning models, in food image analysis to r...

  10. Simplified life-cycle analysis of PV systems in buildings: present situation and future trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frankl, P.; Masini, A.; Gamberale, M.; Toccaceli, D.

    1998-01-01

    The integration of photovoltaic (PV) systems in buildings shows several advantages compared to conventional PV power plants. The main objectives of the present study are the quantitative evaluation of the benefits of building-integrated PV systems over their entire life-cycle and the identification of best solutions to maximise their energy efficiency and CO 2 mitigation potential. In order to achieve these objectives, a simplified life-cycle analysis (LCA) has been carried out. Firstly, a number of existing applications have been studied. Secondly, a parametric analysis of possible improvements in the balance-of-system (BOS) has been developed. Finally, the two steps have been combined with the analysis of crystalline silicon technologies. Results are reported in terms of several indicators: energy pay-back time, CO 2 yield and specific CO 2 emissions. The Indicators show that the integration of PV systems in buildings clearly increases the environmental benefits of present PV technology. These benefits will further increase with future PV technologies. Future optimised PV roof-integrated systems are expected to have an energy pay-back time of around 1-5 years (1 year with heat recovery) and to save during their lifetime more than 20 times the amount of CO 2 emitted during their manufacturing (34 times with heat recovery). (Author)

  11. Digital Holography, a metrological tool for quantitative analysis: Trends and future applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paturzo, Melania; Pagliarulo, Vito; Bianco, Vittorio; Memmolo, Pasquale; Miccio, Lisa; Merola, Francesco; Ferraro, Pietro

    2018-05-01

    A review on the last achievements of Digital Holography is reported in this paper, showing that this powerful method can be a key metrological tool for the quantitative analysis and non-invasive inspection of a variety of materials, devices and processes. Nowadays, its range of applications has been greatly extended, including the study of live biological matter and biomedical applications. This paper overviews the main progresses and future perspectives of digital holography, showing new optical configurations and investigating the numerical issues to be tackled for the processing and display of quantitative data.

  12. Exploring the applicability of future air quality predictions based on synoptic system forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuval; Broday, David M.; Alpert, Pinhas

    2012-01-01

    For a given emissions inventory, the general levels of air pollutants and the spatial distribution of their concentrations are determined by the physiochemical state of the atmosphere. Apart from the trivial seasonal and daily cycles, most of the variability is associated with the atmospheric synoptic scale. A simple methodology for assessing future levels of air pollutants' concentrations based on synoptic forecasts is presented. At short time scales the methodology is comparable and slightly better than persistence and seasonal forecasts at categorical classification of pollution levels. It's utility is shown for air quality studies at the long time scale of a changing climate scenario, where seasonality and persistence cannot be used. It is demonstrated that the air quality variability due to changes in the pollution emissions can be expected to be much larger than that associated with the effects of climatic changes. - Highlights: ► A method for short and long term air quality forecasts is introduced. ► The method is based on prediction of synoptic systems. ► The method beats simple benchmarks in short term forecasts. ► Assessment of future air pollution in a changing climate scenario is demonstrated. - Air quality in a changing climate scenario can be studied using air pollution predictions based on synoptic system forecasts.

  13. Support vector machine based estimation of remaining useful life: current research status and future trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Hong Zhong; Wang, Hai Kun; Li, Yan Feng; Zhang, Longlong; Liu, Zhiliang

    2015-01-01

    Estimation of remaining useful life (RUL) is helpful to manage life cycles of machines and to reduce maintenance cost. Support vector machine (SVM) is a promising algorithm for estimation of RUL because it can easily process small training sets and multi-dimensional data. Many SVM based methods have been proposed to predict RUL of some key components. We did a literature review related to SVM based RUL estimation within a decade. The references reviewed are classified into two categories: improved SVM algorithms and their applications to RUL estimation. The latter category can be further divided into two types: one, to predict the condition state in the future and then build a relationship between state and RUL; two, to establish a direct relationship between current state and RUL. However, SVM is seldom used to track the degradation process and build an accurate relationship between the current health condition state and RUL. Based on the above review and summary, this paper points out that the ability to continually improve SVM, and obtain a novel idea for RUL prediction using SVM will be future works.

  14. Beyond integrated safeguards: Performance-based assessments for future nuclear controls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pilat, Joseph F.; Budlong Sylvester, Kory W.

    2001-01-01

    Full text: In the future, if the nuclear nonproliferation and arms control agendas are to advance, they will likely become increasingly seen as parallel undertakings with the objective of comprehensive cradle-to-grave controls over nuclear materials and possibly even warheads removed from defense programs along with materials in civilian use. This 'back to the future' prospect was envisioned in the Acheson-Lillienthal Report and the Baruch Plan, and more modestly in the Atoms-for-Peace Proposal. Unlike the grand plans of the early nuclear years, today's and tomorrow's undertakings will more likely consist of a series of incremental steps with the goal of expanding nuclear controls. These steps will be undertaken at a time of fundamental change in the IAEA safeguards system, and they will be influenced by those changes in profound ways. This prospective influence needs to be taken into account as the IAEA develops and implements integrated safeguards, including its efforts to establish new safeguards criteria, undertake technological and administrative improvements in safeguards, implement credible capabilities for the detection of undeclared nuclear facilities and activities and, perhaps, provide for a more intensive involvement in applying safeguards in new roles such as the verification of a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty. Performance-based criteria offer one promising way to address the effectiveness of integrated safeguards and to provide a common means of assessing the other key areas of a comprehensive approach to nuclear controls as these develop independently and to the extent that they are coordinated in the future. (author)

  15. The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, O.; Hawkes, A.; Gambhir, A.; Staffell, I.

    2017-08-01

    Electrical energy storage could play a pivotal role in future low-carbon electricity systems, balancing inflexible or intermittent supply with demand. Cost projections are important for understanding this role, but data are scarce and uncertain. Here, we construct experience curves to project future prices for 11 electrical energy storage technologies. We find that, regardless of technology, capital costs are on a trajectory towards US$340 ± 60 kWh-1 for installed stationary systems and US$175 ± 25 kWh-1 for battery packs once 1 TWh of capacity is installed for each technology. Bottom-up assessment of material and production costs indicates this price range is not infeasible. Cumulative investments of US$175-510 billion would be needed for any technology to reach 1 TWh deployment, which could be achieved by 2027-2040 based on market growth projections. Finally, we explore how the derived rates of future cost reduction influence when storage becomes economically competitive in transport and residential applications. Thus, our experience-curve data set removes a barrier for further study by industry, policymakers and academics.

  16. Effects of NYMEX trading on IPE Brent Crude futures markets: a duration analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, S.X.; Tamvakis, M.N.

    2004-01-01

    Recent developments in the energy markets, and the surge and dip in crude oil prices over the last few years, have renewed the interest in the workings of the two main price setting markets: London's International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) and New York's Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The interaction of these two markets, when both of them are open (synchronous trading) and when only London is open (asynchronous trading), is important, in view of the fact that most participants take positions in both markets. This paper looks at how London is affected by New York by analysing the transaction duration of the IPE Brent futures contract, both when the NYMEX WTI futures contract is being traded and when NYMEX is closed. Using tick-by-tick data obtained from IPE, transaction durations are found to form two distinctive and inverted U-shaped patterns. Autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model, first introduced by Engle and Russell, is applied to the data. Parameters of IPE morning and afternoon are significantly different from each other, underlining the dominant effects of NYMEX on IPE trading. The results from the current analysis reinforce previous results by the authors, which indicate that NYMEX is a leading price setter in crude oil futures prices and has a dominant effect on the IPE-traded contracts

  17. Use of crops and livestock futures contracts in portfolios: an analysis of feasibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mattos Fabio L.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available According to Portfolio Theory, by combining assets that show a correlation inferior to one (1 among their individual returns, it becomes possible to create portfolios that reduce risk without damaging expected return. Crop and livestock futures contracts and company stocks show such a characteristic, which signals potential benefits when forming portfolios combining these two types of assets. This investment strategy is not often utilized in Brazil. The purpose of our research was to assess whether such an asset combination is actually advantageous to those creating investment portfolios in the Brazilian market. Our evaluation used instruments of analysis developed by Markowitz in Portfolio Theory and data about the return from crop and livestock futures contracts and stocks. The data was gathered from the Brazilian Futures and Commodities Exchange (BM&F and Brazil?s National Association of Open Market Institutions (ANDIMA between July 1994 and December 1998. The results of this work showed that the combination of these two types of assets in investment portfolios can be an interesting portfolio management alternative.

  18. The Role of Subscription-Based Patrol and Restitution in the Future of Liberty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gil Guillory

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Market anarchists are often keen to know how we might rid ourselves of the twin evils institutionalized in the state: taxation and monopoly. A possible future history for North America is suggested, focusing upon the implications of the establishment of a subscription-based patrol and restitution business sector. We favor Rothbard over Higgs regarding crises and liberty. We favor Barnett over Rothbard regarding vertical integration of security. We examine derived demand for adjudication, mediation and related goods; and we advance the thesis that private adjudication will tend to libertarianly just decisions. We show how firms will actively build civil society, strengthening and coordinating Nisbettian intermediating institutions.

  19. Program for Plasma-Based Concepts for Future High Energy Accelerators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katsouleas, Thomas C.; Muggli, Patric

    2003-01-01

    OAK B204 Program for Plasma-Based Concepts for Future High Energy Accelerators. The progress made under this program in the period since November 15, 2002 is reflected in this report. The main activities for this period were to conduct the first run of the E-164 high-gradient wakefield experiment at SLAC, to prepare for run 2 and to continue our collaborative effort with CERN to model electron cloud interactions in circular accelerators. Each of these is described. Also attached to this report are papers that were prepared or appeared during this period

  20. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  1. Back to the future: past and future era-based schematic support and associative memory for prices in younger and older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castel, Alan D; McGillivray, Shannon; Worden, Kendell M

    2013-12-01

    Older adults typically display various associative memory deficits, but these deficits can be reduced when conditions allow for the use of prior knowledge or schematic support. To determine how era-specific schematic support and future simulation might influence associative memory, we examined how younger and older adults remember prices from the past as well as the future. Younger and older adults were asked to imagine the past or future, and then studied items and prices from approximately 40 years ago (market value prices from the 1970s) or 40 years in the future. In Experiment 1, all items were common items (e.g., movie ticket, coffee) and the associated prices reflected the era in question, whereas in Experiment 2, some item-price pairs were specific to the time period (e.g., typewriter, robot maid), to test different degrees of schematic support. After studying the pairs, participants were shown each item and asked to recall the associated price. In both experiments, older adults showed similar performance as younger adults in the past condition for the common items, whereas age-related differences were greater in the future condition and for the era-specific items. The findings suggest that in order for schematic support to be effective, recent (and not simply remote) experience is needed in order to enhance memory. Thus, whereas older adults can benefit from "turning back the clock," younger adults better remember future-oriented information compared with older adults, outlining age-related similarities and differences in associative memory and the efficient use of past and future-based schematic support. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  2. Preliminary Analysis of ISS Maintenance History and Implications for Supportability of Future Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Kevin J.; Robbins, William W.

    2004-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) enables the study of supportability issues associated with long-duration human spaceflight. The ISS is a large, complex spacecraft that must be maintained by its crew. In contrast to the Space Shuttle Orbiter vehicle, but similar to spacecraft that will be component elements of future missions beyond low-Earth orbit, ISS does not return to the ground for servicing and provisioning of spares is severely constrained by transportation limits. Although significant technical support is provided by ground personnel, all hands-on maintenance tasks are performed by the crew. It is expected that future missions to distant destinations will be further limited by lack of resupply opportunities and will, eventually, become largely independent of ground support. ISS provides an opportunity to begin learning lessons that will enable future missions to be successful. Data accumulated over the first several years of ISS operations have been analyzed to gain a better understanding of maintenance-related workload. This analysis addresses both preventive and corrective maintenance and includes all U.S segment core systems. Systems and tasks that are major contributors to workload are identified. As further experience accrues, lessons will be learned that will influence future system designs so that they require less maintenance and, when maintenance is required, it can be performed more efficiently. By heeding the lessons of ISS it will be possible to identify system designs that should be more robust and point towards advances in both technology and design that will offer the greatest return on investment.

  3. A Monte Carlo based decision-support tool for assessing generation portfolios in future carbon constrained electricity industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat; MacGill, Iain F.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a novel decision-support tool for assessing future generation portfolios in an increasingly uncertain electricity industry. The tool combines optimal generation mix concepts with Monte Carlo simulation and portfolio analysis techniques to determine expected overall industry costs, associated cost uncertainty, and expected CO 2 emissions for different generation portfolio mixes. The tool can incorporate complex and correlated probability distributions for estimated future fossil-fuel costs, carbon prices, plant investment costs, and demand, including price elasticity impacts. The intent of this tool is to facilitate risk-weighted generation investment and associated policy decision-making given uncertainties facing the electricity industry. Applications of this tool are demonstrated through a case study of an electricity industry with coal, CCGT, and OCGT facing future uncertainties. Results highlight some significant generation investment challenges, including the impacts of uncertain and correlated carbon and fossil-fuel prices, the role of future demand changes in response to electricity prices, and the impact of construction cost uncertainties on capital intensive generation. The tool can incorporate virtually any type of input probability distribution, and support sophisticated risk assessments of different portfolios, including downside economic risks. It can also assess portfolios against multi-criterion objectives such as greenhouse emissions as well as overall industry costs. - Highlights: ► Present a decision support tool to assist generation investment and policy making under uncertainty. ► Generation portfolios are assessed based on their expected costs, risks, and CO 2 emissions. ► There is tradeoff among expected cost, risks, and CO 2 emissions of generation portfolios. ► Investment challenges include economic impact of uncertainties and the effect of price elasticity. ► CO 2 emissions reduction depends on the mix of

  4. Mountain Home Air Force Base, Idaho Geothermal Resource Assessment and Future Recommendations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joseph C. Armstrong; Robert P. Breckenridge; Dennis L. Nielson; John W. Shervais; Thomas R. Wood

    2013-03-01

    The U.S. Air Force is facing a number of challenges as it moves into the future, one of the biggest being how to provide safe and secure energy to support base operations. A team of scientists and engineers met at Mountain Home Air Force Base in early 2011 near Boise, Idaho, to discuss the possibility of exploring for geothermal resources under the base. The team identified that there was a reasonable potential for geothermal resources based on data from an existing well. In addition, a regional gravity map helped identify several possible locations for drilling a new well. The team identified several possible sources of funding for this well—the most logical being to use U.S. Department of Energy funds to drill the upper half of the well and U.S. Air Force funds to drill the bottom half of the well. The well was designed as a slimhole well in accordance with State of Idaho Department of Water Resources rules and regulations. Drilling operations commenced at the Mountain Home site in July of 2011 and were completed in January of 2012. Temperatures increased gradually, especially below a depth of 2000 ft. Temperatures increased more rapidly below a depth of 5500 ft. The bottom of the well is at 5976 ft, where a temperature of about 140°C was recorded. The well flowed artesian from a depth below 5600 ft, until it was plugged off with drilling mud. Core samples were collected from the well and are being analyzed to help understand permeability at depth. Additional tests using a televiewer system will be run to evaluate orientation and directions at fractures, especially in the production zone. A final report on the well exploitation will be forthcoming later this year. The Air Force will use it to evaluate the geothermal resource potential for future private development options at Mountain Home Air Force Base. In conclusion, Recommendation for follow-up efforts include the following:

  5. Read-only-memory-based quantum computation: Experimental explorations using nuclear magnetic resonance and future prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sypher, D.R.; Brereton, I.M.; Wiseman, H.M.; Hollis, B.L.; Travaglione, B.C.

    2002-01-01

    Read-only-memory-based (ROM-based) quantum computation (QC) is an alternative to oracle-based QC. It has the advantages of being less 'magical', and being more suited to implementing space-efficient computation (i.e., computation using the minimum number of writable qubits). Here we consider a number of small (one- and two-qubit) quantum algorithms illustrating different aspects of ROM-based QC. They are: (a) a one-qubit algorithm to solve the Deutsch problem; (b) a one-qubit binary multiplication algorithm; (c) a two-qubit controlled binary multiplication algorithm; and (d) a two-qubit ROM-based version of the Deutsch-Jozsa algorithm. For each algorithm we present experimental verification using nuclear magnetic resonance ensemble QC. The average fidelities for the implementation were in the ranges 0.9-0.97 for the one-qubit algorithms, and 0.84-0.94 for the two-qubit algorithms. We conclude with a discussion of future prospects for ROM-based quantum computation. We propose a four-qubit algorithm, using Grover's iterate, for solving a miniature 'real-world' problem relating to the lengths of paths in a network

  6. Stability and Growth Pact – critical analysis and perspectives of the future development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Plaga

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This working paper seeks to define perspectives of the functioning of the Stability and Growth Pact as a tool for regulation of national fiscal policies through analysis and description of legal acts regarding the Pact and through analysis and statistical evaluation of the compliance of the EMU States with requirements for fiscal discipline. The first part brings the description of the Pact's functioning mechanism and defines its weaknesses (e.g. extensive role of the Council. The second part tries to analyse and statistically evaluate how the Member States complied with the provisions of the Pact during the years 1999-2003. The results are compared with the most mentioned shortcomings of the Pact. In the concluding part the paper discusses proposals for a change of the Pact and tries to estimate perspectives of its functioning in the future.

  7. New computing systems, future computing environment, and their implications on structural analysis and design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noor, Ahmed K.; Housner, Jerrold M.

    1993-01-01

    Recent advances in computer technology that are likely to impact structural analysis and design of flight vehicles are reviewed. A brief summary is given of the advances in microelectronics, networking technologies, and in the user-interface hardware and software. The major features of new and projected computing systems, including high performance computers, parallel processing machines, and small systems, are described. Advances in programming environments, numerical algorithms, and computational strategies for new computing systems are reviewed. The impact of the advances in computer technology on structural analysis and the design of flight vehicles is described. A scenario for future computing paradigms is presented, and the near-term needs in the computational structures area are outlined.

  8. Automated X-ray image analysis for cargo security: Critical review and future promise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Thomas W; Jaccard, Nicolas; Morton, Edward J; Griffin, Lewis D

    2017-01-01

    We review the relatively immature field of automated image analysis for X-ray cargo imagery. There is increasing demand for automated analysis methods that can assist in the inspection and selection of containers, due to the ever-growing volumes of traded cargo and the increasing concerns that customs- and security-related threats are being smuggled across borders by organised crime and terrorist networks. We split the field into the classical pipeline of image preprocessing and image understanding. Preprocessing includes: image manipulation; quality improvement; Threat Image Projection (TIP); and material discrimination and segmentation. Image understanding includes: Automated Threat Detection (ATD); and Automated Contents Verification (ACV). We identify several gaps in the literature that need to be addressed and propose ideas for future research. Where the current literature is sparse we borrow from the single-view, multi-view, and CT X-ray baggage domains, which have some characteristics in common with X-ray cargo.

  9. Analysis and mapping of present and future drought conditions over Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios; Weiler, Markus; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2018-01-01

    Estimation of drought in a certain temporal and spatial scale is crucial in climate change studies. The current study targets on three agricultural areas widespread in Greece, Ardas River Basin in Northeastern Greece, Sperchios River Basin in Central Greece, and Geropotamos River Basin in Crete Island in South Greece that are characterized by diverse climates as they are located in various regions. The objective is to assess the spatiotemporal variation of drought conditions prevailing in these areas. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to identify and assess the present and future drought conditions. Future simulated data were derived from a number of Regional Climatic Models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES European Project. The analysis was performed for the future periods of 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, implementing A1B and B1 scenarios. The spatial analysis of the drought conditions was performed using a combined downscaling technique and the Ordinary Kriging. The Mann-Kendall test was implemented for trend investigation. During both periods and scenarios, drought conditions will tend to be more severe in the upcoming years. The decrease of the SPI values in the Sperchios River Basin is expected to be the strongest, as it is the only study area that will show a negative balance (in SPI values), regarding the drought conditions. For the Ardas and the Geropotamos River Basins, a great increase of the drought conditions will occur during the 2021-2050 period, while for 2071-2100 period, the decrease will continue but it will be tempered. Nevertheless, the situation in all study areas according to the SPI classification is characterized as "Near-normal", in terms of drought conditions.

  10. Intensity changes in future extreme precipitation: A statistical event-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    method, unchanged. The advantages of the suggested Pi-Td method of projecting future precipitation events from historic events is that it is simple to use, is less expensive time, computational and resource wise compared to a numerical model. The outcome can be used directly for hydrological and climatological studies and for impact analysis such as for flood risk assessments.

  11. The future distribution of the savannah biome: model-based and biogeographic contingency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moncrieff, Glenn R; Scheiter, Simon; Langan, Liam; Trabucco, Antonio; Higgins, Steven I

    2016-09-19

    The extent of the savannah biome is expected to be profoundly altered by climatic change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Contrasting projections are given when using different modelling approaches to estimate future distributions. Furthermore, biogeographic variation within savannahs in plant function and structure is expected to lead to divergent responses to global change. Hence the use of a single model with a single savannah tree type will likely lead to biased projections. Here we compare and contrast projections of South American, African and Australian savannah distributions from the physiologically based Thornley transport resistance statistical distribution model (TTR-SDM)-and three versions of a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) designed and parametrized separately for specific continents. We show that attempting to extrapolate any continent-specific model globally biases projections. By 2070, all DVMs generally project a decrease in the extent of savannahs at their boundary with forests, whereas the TTR-SDM projects a decrease in savannahs at their boundary with aridlands and grasslands. This difference is driven by forest and woodland expansion in response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations in DVMs, unaccounted for by the TTR-SDM. We suggest that the most suitable models of the savannah biome for future development are individual-based dynamic vegetation models designed for specific biogeographic regions.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  12. Predicting the Uncertain Future of Aptamer-Based Diagnostics and Therapeutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruno, John G

    2015-04-16

    Despite the great promise of nucleic acid aptamers in the areas of diagnostics and therapeutics for their facile in vitro development, lack of immunogenicity and other desirable properties, few truly successful aptamer-based products exist in the clinical or other markets. Core reasons for these commercial deficiencies probably stem from industrial commitment to antibodies including a huge financial investment in humanized monoclonal antibodies and a general ignorance about aptamers and their performance among the research and development community. Given the early failures of some strong commercial efforts to gain government approval and bring aptamer-based products to market, it may seem that aptamers are doomed to take a backseat to antibodies forever. However, the key advantages of aptamers over antibodies coupled with niche market needs that only aptamers can fill and more recent published data still point to a bright commercial future for aptamers in areas such as infectious disease and cancer diagnostics and therapeutics. As more researchers and entrepreneurs become familiar with aptamers, it seems inevitable that aptamers will at least be considered for expanded roles in diagnostics and therapeutics. This review also examines new aptamer modifications and attempts to predict new aptamer applications that could revolutionize biomedical technology in the future and lead to marketed products.

  13. EnerFuture Energy Scenarios to 2035 'Understanding our Energy Future'. Key graphs and analysis, Enerdata - Global Energy Forecasting - February 2014

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    The EnerFuture service provides projections to 2035 of energy supply and demand across the world, powered by the POLES model, to help you with what to expect in the energy industry in the mid-term. Our energy forecasting team have developed three key energy scenarios (Balance, Emergence and Renaissance) to illustrate possible futures. Balance scenario: Balance provides an outlook of the energy system up to 2035 based on current policies and trends. Sustained growth of China and other emerging countries is a powerful driver of global energy demand, but confirmed energy policy commitments in several regions play a key role in controlling the pace of growth. However, non-coordinated policies result in soaring CO_2 emissions across the world and energy prices rise. Emergence scenario: This scenario explores the implications of more stringent climate policies, with more ambitious efforts on energy efficiency, initiatives to phase out fossil fuel subsidies and a real emergence of renewable technologies. Europe goes beyond its -20% targets by 2020, and the OECD and emerging countries meet their Copenhagen objectives. Following this, a new green deal is launched to reduce world emissions by a factor of 2 by 2050. Renaissance scenario: With strong efforts in the exploitation and production of unconventional oil and gas resources, the world encounters a fossil fuels renaissance with the appearance of new key actors and ultimately new geopolitical configurations changing the energy independence of several countries. For climate efforts, this new paradigm leads to progressively weaker policies. Further analysis and key findings are available here: - Increasing economic activity and wealth drives energy consumption, in a balance between energy prices and innovation; - As Non-OECD exceeds OECD oil demand, massive financial flows underlie the shifts in global oil trade; - Optimistic resource assumptions and moderate production costs would lead to an oil production Renaissance

  14. A Potential Transmitter Architecture for Future Generation Green Wireless Base Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Faulkner

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Current radio frequency power amplifiers in 3G base stations have very high power consumption leading to a hefty cost and negative environmental impact. In this paper, we propose a potential architecture design for future wireless base station. Issues associated with components of the architecture are investigated. The all-digital transmitter architecture uses a combination of envelope elimination and restoration (EER and pulse width modulation (PWM/pulse position modulation (PPM modulation. The performance of this architecture is predicted from the measured output power and efficiency curves of a GaN amplifier. 57% efficiency is obtained for an OFDM signal limited to 8 dB peak to average power ratio. The PWM/PPM drive signal is generated using the improved Cartesian sigma delta techniques. It is shown that an RF oversampling by a factor of four meets the WLAN spectral mask, and WCDMA specification is met by an RF oversampling of sixteen.

  15. Application of Quantum Dots-Based Biotechnology in Cancer Diagnosis: Current Status and Future Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-Wei Peng

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The semiconductor nanocrystal quantum dots (QDs have excellent photo-physical properties, and the QDs-based probes have achieved encouraging developments in cellular and in vivo molecular imaging. More and more researches showed that QDs-based technology may become a promising approach in cancer research. In this review, we focus on recent application of QDs in cancer diagnosis and treatment, including early detection of primary tumor such as ovarian cancer, breast cancer, prostate cancer and pancreatic cancer, as well as regional lymph nodes and distant metastases. With the development of QDs synthesis and modification, the effect of QDs on tumor metastasis investigation will become more and more important in the future.

  16. Telescope-based cavity for negative ion beam neutralization in future fusion reactors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiorucci, Donatella; Hreibi, Ali; Chaibi, Walid

    2018-03-01

    In future fusion reactors, heating system efficiency is of the utmost importance. Photo-neutralization substantially increases the neutral beam injector (NBI) efficiency with respect to the foreseen system in the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) based on a gaseous target. In this paper, we propose a telescope-based configuration to be used in the NBI photo-neutralizer cavity of the demonstration power plant (DEMO) project. This configuration greatly reduces the total length of the cavity, which likely solves overcrowding issues in a fusion reactor environment. Brought to a tabletop experiment, this cavity configuration is tested: a 4 mm beam width is obtained within a ≃1.5  m length cavity. The equivalent cavity g factor is measured to be 0.038(3), thus confirming the cavity stability.

  17. THE MODEL OF TEACHING FUTURE PHILOLOGISTS DISCUSSION IN ENGLISH BASED ON PROBLEMATIC SITUATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ірина Зайцева

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the model of teaching 1-st year students of foreign languages’ faculties discussion based on problematic situations and the ways of implementing such a model in the teaching process at the English language classes. The author defines and describes principles and stages of teaching discussion, hours for students’ class and individual work (autonomous learning, techniques and methods of teaching. Such notions as “model”, “communicative-discussion skills” and “method of teaching” have been defined. The gradual implementation of the model of learning process in terms of credit-modular system of training is described. The purpose, object and subjects of study that are important for creating a model of teaching discussion to future philologists based on problematic situations have been singled out.

  18. A Potential Transmitter Architecture for Future Generation Green Wireless Base Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cijvat Ellie

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Current radio frequency power amplifiers in 3G base stations have very high power consumption leading to a hefty cost and negative environmental impact. In this paper, we propose a potential architecture design for future wireless base station. Issues associated with components of the architecture are investigated. The all-digital transmitter architecture uses a combination of envelope elimination and restoration (EER and pulse width modulation (PWM/pulse position modulation (PPM modulation. The performance of this architecture is predicted from the measured output power and efficiency curves of a GaN amplifier. 57% efficiency is obtained for an OFDM signal limited to 8 dB peak to average power ratio. The PWM/PPM drive signal is generated using the improved Cartesian sigma delta techniques. It is shown that an RF oversampling by a factor of four meets the WLAN spectral mask, and WCDMA specification is met by an RF oversampling of sixteen.

  19. Applying Place-Based Social-Ecological Research to Address Water Scarcity: Insights for Future Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio J. Castro

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Globally, environmental and social change in water-scarce regions challenge the sustainability of social-ecological systems. WaterSES, a sponsored working group within the Program for Ecosystem Change and Society, explores and compares the social-ecological dynamics related to water scarcity across placed-based international research sites with contrasting local and regional water needs and governance, including research sites in Spain and Sweden in Europe, South Africa, China, and Alabama, Idaho, Oklahoma, and Texas in the USA. This paper aims to provide a commentary on insights into conducting future solutions-oriented research on water scarcity based on the understanding of the social-ecological dynamics of water scarce regions.

  20. Evidence based practice readiness: A concept analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Jessica D; Welton, John M

    2018-01-15

    To analyse and define the concept "evidence based practice readiness" in nurses. Evidence based practice readiness is a term commonly used in health literature, but without a clear understanding of what readiness means. Concept analysis is needed to define the meaning of evidence based practice readiness. A concept analysis was conducted using Walker and Avant's method to clarify the defining attributes of evidence based practice readiness as well as antecedents and consequences. A Boolean search of PubMed and Cumulative Index for Nursing and Allied Health Literature was conducted and limited to those published after the year 2000. Eleven articles met the inclusion criteria for this analysis. Evidence based practice readiness incorporates personal and organisational readiness. Antecedents include the ability to recognize the need for evidence based practice, ability to access and interpret evidence based practice, and a supportive environment. The concept analysis demonstrates the complexity of the concept and its implications for nursing practice. The four pillars of evidence based practice readiness: nursing, training, equipping and leadership support are necessary to achieve evidence based practice readiness. Nurse managers are in the position to address all elements of evidence based practice readiness. Creating an environment that fosters evidence based practice can improve patient outcomes, decreased health care cost, increase nurses' job satisfaction and decrease nursing turnover. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Prostate-specific antigen-based prostate cancer screening: Past and future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberts, Arnout R; Schoots, Ivo G; Roobol, Monique J

    2015-06-01

    Prostate-specific antigen-based prostate cancer screening remains a controversial topic. Up to now, there is worldwide consensus on the statement that the harms of population-based screening, mainly as a result of overdiagnosis (the detection of clinically insignificant tumors that would have never caused any symptoms), outweigh the benefits. However, worldwide opportunistic screening takes place on a wide scale. The European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer showed a reduction in prostate cancer mortality through prostate-specific antigen based-screening. These population-based data need to be individualized in order to avoid screening in those who cannot benefit and start screening in those who will. For now, lacking a more optimal screening approach, screening should only be started after the process of shared decision-making. The focus of future research is the reduction of unnecessary testing and overdiagnosis by further research to better biomarkers and the value of the multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging, potentially combined in already existing prostate-specific antigen-based multivariate risk prediction models. © 2015 The Japanese Urological Association.

  2. Real-time data analysis at the LHC: present and future

    CERN Document Server

    Gligorov, V.V.

    2015-01-01

    The Large Hadron Collider (LHC), which collides protons at an energy of 14 TeV, produces hundreds of exabytes of data per year, making it one of the largest sources of data in the world today. At present it is not possible to even transfer most of this data from the four main particle detectors at the LHC to "offline" data facilities, much less to permanently store it for future processing. For this reason the LHC detectors are equipped with real-time analysis systems, called triggers, which process this volume of data and select the most interesting proton-proton collisions. The LHC experiment triggers reduce the data produced by the LHC by between 1/1000 and 1/100000, to tens of petabytes per year, allowing its economical storage and further analysis. The bulk of the data-reduction is performed by custom electronics which ignores most of the data in its decision making, and is therefore unable to exploit the most powerful known data analysis strategies. I cover the present status of real-time data analysis ...

  3. Nearly Finished Genomes Produced Using Gel Microdroplet Culturing (Seventh Annual Sequencing, Finishing, Analysis in the Future (SFAF) Meeting 2012)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fitzsimmons, Michael

    2012-06-01

    Michael Fitzsimmons from Los Alamos National Laboratory gives a talk titled "Nearly Finished Genomes Produced Using Gel Microdroplet Culturing" at the 7th Annual Sequencing, Finishing, Analysis in the Future (SFAF) Meeting held in June, 2012 in Santa Fe, NM.

  4. FUNCTIONAL ANALYSIS OF FUTURE MUSIC ART TEACHERS’ TRAINING FOR SINGING ACTIVITY OF COMPREHENSIVE SCHOOL SENIOR STUDENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ma Chen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In the article the functional analysis of future music art teachers’ training for singing activity of comprehensive school senior students is depicted. This issue is very important because improving educators and musicians’ training contributes not only to professional selfactualisation, but also to young generation’s encouraging for thorough learning music art works and their creative development in the process of group music tuitions. Extracurricular singing activity also plays an important part. It reveals art images to students, enriching creativity experience, forms the spiritual world, develops independent thinking, awakens creativity. The author points out the main functions of future music art teachers’ training. They are system and value, information, communication, creative and transformative, projective functions. The special attention is paid to characterizing the features of each function. The author claims that system and value function relates to the necessity to analyze the results of the educational process that contributes to productive solving problems by students and main tasks of music training. Information function is a subject background of art music teachers’ and pedagogical activities. Communicative function is realized in a teacher’s ability to develop the student’ initiative to plan cooperative activities, to be able to distribute duties, to carry out instructions, to coordinate cooperative activities, to create special situations for the implementation of educational influence. The analysis of pedagogical and methodological literature shows that The creative and transformative function is manifested in the creative use of pedagogical and methodological ideas in specific pedagogical conditions. The projective function is thought to promote the most complete realization of content of comprehensive and art education. Functional analysis of students’ training of art faculties at pedagogical universities to

  5. Futures Analysis of Urban Land Use and Wetland Change in Saskatoon, Canada: An Application in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Sizo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a scenario-based approach to strategic environmental assessment (SEA for wetland trend analysis and land use and land cover (LUC modeling in an urban environment. The application is focused on the Saskatoon urban environment, a rapidly growing urban municipality in Canada’s prairie pothole region. Alternative future LUC was simulated using remote sensing data and city spatial planning documentation using a Markov Chain technique. Two alternatives were developed and compared for LUC change and threats to urban wetland sustainability: a zero alternative that simulated trends in urban development and wetland conservation under a business as usual scenario, in the absence of prescribed planning and zoning actions; and an alternative focused on implementation of current urban development plans, which simulated future LUC to account for prescribed wetland conservation strategies. Results show no improvement in future wetland conditions under the city’s planned growth and wetland conservation scenario versus the business as usual scenario. Results also indicate that a blanket wetland conservation strategy for the city may not be sufficient to overcome the historic trend of urban wetland loss; and that spatially distributed conservation rates, based on individual wetland water catchment LUC peculiarities, may be more effective in terms of wetland conservation. The paper also demonstrates the challenges to applied SEA in a rapidly changing urban planning context, where data are often sparse and inconsistent across the urban region, and provides potential solutions through LUC classification and prediction tools to help overcome data limitations to support land use planning decisions for wetland conservation.

  6. Implications of demographics on future blood supply: a population-based cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greinacher, Andreas; Fendrich, Konstanze; Brzenska, Ralf; Kiefel, Volker; Hoffmann, Wolfgang

    2011-04-01

    Data on blood recipients are sparse and unconnected to data on blood donors. The objective was to analyze the impact of the demographic change on future blood demand and supply in a German federal state. A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted. For all in-hospital transfused red blood cells (RBCs; n = 95,477), in the German federal state Mecklenburg-Pomerania in 2005, characteristics of the patient and the blood donor (118,406 blood donations) were obtained. Population data were used to predict blood demand and supply until 2020. By 2020 the population increase of those aged 65 years or more (+26.4%) in Mecklenburg-Pomerania will be paralleled by a decrease of the potential donor population (18-68 years; -16.1%). Assuming stable rates per age group until 2020, the demand for in-hospital blood transfusions will increase by approximately 25% (24,000 RBC units) while blood donations will decrease by approximately 27% (32,000 RBC units). The resulting, predicted shortfall is 47% of demand for in-hospital patients (56,000 RBC units). Validation using historical data (1997-2007) showed that the model predicted the RBC demand with a deviation of only 1.2%. Demographic changes are particularly pronounced in former East Germany, but by 2030 most European countries will face a similar situation. The decrease of younger age groups requires an increase of blood donation rates and interdisciplinary approaches to reduce the need for transfusion to maintain sufficient blood supply. Demography is a major determinant of future transfusion demand. All efforts should be made by Western societies to systematically obtain data on blood donors and recipients to develop strategies to meet future blood demand. © 2010 American Association of Blood Banks.

  7. Structured Performance Analysis for Component Based Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Salmi , N.; Moreaux , Patrice; Ioualalen , M.

    2012-01-01

    International audience; The Component Based System (CBS) paradigm is now largely used to design software systems. In addition, performance and behavioural analysis remains a required step for the design and the construction of efficient systems. This is especially the case of CBS, which involve interconnected components running concurrent processes. % This paper proposes a compositional method for modeling and structured performance analysis of CBS. Modeling is based on Stochastic Well-formed...

  8. Future perspective of thorium based nuclear fuels and thorium potential of Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unak, T.; Yildirim, Y.

    2001-01-01

    Today's nuclear technology has principally been based on the use of fissile U-235 and Pu-239. he existence of thorium in the nature and its potential use in the nuclear technology were not unfortunately into account with a sufficient importance. The global distributions of thorium and uranium reserves indicate that in general some developed countries such as the USA, Canada, Australia, France have considerable uranium reserves, and contrarily only some developing countries such as Turkey, Brazil, India, Egypt have considerable thorium reserves. The studies carried out on the thorium during the last 50 years have clearly showed that the thorium based nuclear fuels have the potential easily use in most of reactor types actually operated with the classical uranium based nuclear fuels without any considerable modification. In the case of the use of thorium based nuclear fuels in future nuclear energy production systems, the serious problems such as the excess of Pu-239, the proliferation potential of nuclear weapons, and also the anxious of nuclear terrorism will probably be resolved, and sustainable nuclear energy production will be realized in the next new century. (authors)

  9. Future perspective of thorium based nuclear fuels and thorium potential of Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unak, T.; Yildirim, Y.

    2000-01-01

    Today's nuclear technology has principally been based on the use of fissile U-235 and Pu-239. The existence of thorium in the nature and its potential use in the nuclear technology were not unfortunately into account with a sufficient importance. The global distributions of thorium and uranium reserves indicate that in general some developed countries such as the USA, Canada, Australia, France have considerable uranium reserves, and contrarily only some developing countries such as Turkey, Brazil, India, Egypt have considerable thorium reserves. The studies carried out on the thorium during the last 50 years have clearly showed that the thorium based nuclear fuels have the potential easily use in most of reactor types actually operated with the classical uranium based nuclear fuels without any considerable modification. In the case of the use of thorium based nuclear fuels in future nuclear energy production systems, the serious problems such as the excess of Pu-239, the proliferation potential of nuclear weapons, and also the anxious of nuclear terrorism will probably be resolved, and sustainable nuclear energy production will be realized in the next new century. (authors)

  10. A comprehensive review of the SLMTA literature part 1: Content analysis and future priorities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth T. Luman

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Since its introduction in 2009, the Strengthening Laboratory Management Toward Accreditation (SLMTA programme has been implemented widely throughout Africa, as well as in the Caribbean, Central and South America, and Southeast Asia. Objective: We compiled results from local, national and global studies to provide a broad view of the programme and identify directions for the future. The review consists of two companion papers; this paper focuses on content analysis, examining various thematic components of the SLMTA programme and future priorities. Methods: A systematic literature search identified 28 published articles about implementing the SLMTA programme. Results for various components of the SLMTA programme were reviewed and summarised. Results: Local and national studies provide substantial information on previous experiences with quality management systems; variations on SLMTA implementation; building human resource capacity for trainers, mentors and auditors; the benefits and effectiveness of various types of mentorship; the importance of management buy-in to ensure country ownership; the need to instill a culture of quality in the laboratory; success factors and challenges; and future directions for the programme. Conclusions: Local, national and global results suggest that the SLMTA programme has been overwhelmingly successful in transforming laboratory quality management. There is an urgent need to move forward in four strategic directions: progression (continued improvement in SLMTA laboratories, saturation (additional laboratories within countries that have implemented SLMTA, expansion (implementation in additional countries, and extension (adapting SLMTA for implementation beyond the laboratory, to lead to transformation of overall health systems and patient care.

  11. Reliability analysis of software based safety functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.

    1993-05-01

    The methods applicable in the reliability analysis of software based safety functions are described in the report. Although the safety functions also include other components, the main emphasis in the report is on the reliability analysis of software. The check list type qualitative reliability analysis methods, such as failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), are described, as well as the software fault tree analysis. The safety analysis based on the Petri nets is discussed. The most essential concepts and models of quantitative software reliability analysis are described. The most common software metrics and their combined use with software reliability models are discussed. The application of software reliability models in PSA is evaluated; it is observed that the recent software reliability models do not produce the estimates needed in PSA directly. As a result from the study some recommendations and conclusions are drawn. The need of formal methods in the analysis and development of software based systems, the applicability of qualitative reliability engineering methods in connection to PSA and the need to make more precise the requirements for software based systems and their analyses in the regulatory guides should be mentioned. (orig.). (46 refs., 13 figs., 1 tab.)

  12. Preference-Based Recommendations for OLAP Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerbi, Houssem; Ravat, Franck; Teste, Olivier; Zurfluh, Gilles

    This paper presents a framework for integrating OLAP and recommendations. We focus on the anticipatory recommendation process that assists the user during his OLAP analysis by proposing to him the forthcoming analysis step. We present a context-aware preference model that matches decision-makers intuition, and we discuss a preference-based approach for generating personalized recommendations.

  13. FORECASTING COSMOLOGICAL PARAMETER CONSTRAINTS FROM NEAR-FUTURE SPACE-BASED GALAXY SURVEYS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pavlov, Anatoly; Ratra, Bharat; Samushia, Lado

    2012-01-01

    The next generation of space-based galaxy surveys is expected to measure the growth rate of structure to a level of about one percent over a range of redshifts. The rate of growth of structure as a function of redshift depends on the behavior of dark energy and so can be used to constrain parameters of dark energy models. In this work, we investigate how well these future data will be able to constrain the time dependence of the dark energy density. We consider parameterizations of the dark energy equation of state, such as XCDM and ωCDM, as well as a consistent physical model of time-evolving scalar field dark energy, φCDM. We show that if the standard, specially flat cosmological model is taken as a fiducial model of the universe, these near-future measurements of structure growth will be able to constrain the time dependence of scalar field dark energy density to a precision of about 10%, which is almost an order of magnitude better than what can be achieved from a compilation of currently available data sets.

  14. A Priority-Based View of Future Challenges in International Nuclear Safeguards.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matteucci, Kayla [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-06-01

    The international nuclear safeguards community is faced with a host of challenges in the coming years, many of which have been outlined but have not been described in terms of their urgency. Literature regarding safeguards challenges is either broad and devoid of any reference to prioritization or tailored to a specific problem and removed from the overall goals of the safeguards community. For example, developing new methods of environmental sampling, improving containment and surveillance (C/S) technologies to increase efficiency and decrease inspection time, advancing nuclear material accountancy (NMA) techniques, and planning safeguards approaches for new types of nuclear facilities are all important. They have not, however, been distinctly prioritized at a high level within the safeguards community. Based on a review of existing literature and interviews with experts on these upcoming challenges, this paper offers a high-level summary of present and future priorities in safeguards, with attention both to what is feasible and to what is most imperative. In doing so, the paper addresses the potential repercussions for failing to prioritize, with a focus on the risk of diversion of nuclear material. Within the context of shifts in the American political landscape, and keeping in mind that nonproliferation issues may take a backseat to others in the near future, a prioritized view of safeguards objectives will be vital. In the interest of expanding upon this work, the paper offers several potential conceptual models for prioritization which can be explored in greater depth upon further research.

  15. Baby boomers as future care users--An analysis of expectations in print media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jönson, Håkan; Jönsson, Anders

    2015-08-01

    The aim of the study was to investigate media presentations of baby boomers as future care users. The Swedish baby boomer generation, born in the 1940s, and known as the '40s generation, has been characterized as youthful and powerful, and a question investigated in the study was whether boomers are supposed to display these characteristics as care users. We analyzed 481 articles in Swedish newspapers, published between 1995 and 2012, with a qualitative content analysis. The results showed that the '40s generation was predicted to become a new breed of demanding, self-aware care users. These claims were supported by descriptions of the formative events and typical characteristics of these individuals, which were then projected onto their future behavior as care users. Such projections tended to portray contemporary care users as passive, submissive, and partly responsible for problems associated with elder care. Consequently, approaches that focus on differences between cohorts need to incorporate a constructionist dimension to highlight the problem of generationism. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Comparative Analysis of Future Cooks' Training in Vocational Institutions in Ukraine and Abroad

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kankovsky, Ihor; Krasylnykova, Hanna; Drozich, Iryna

    2017-01-01

    The article deals with comparative analysis of conceptual approaches and content of cooks' training in Ukraine, European countries, the USA and Eastern Partnership countries. It has been found out that national vocational education is grounded on education standards and activity-based approach to forming the training content, subject-based…

  17. Current activities and future trends in reliability analysis and probabilistic safety assessment in Hungary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollo, E.; Toth, J.

    1986-01-01

    In Hungary reliability analysis (RA) and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants was initiated 3 years ago. First, computer codes for automatic fault tree analysis (CAT, PREP) and numerical evaluation (REMO, KITT1,2) were adapted. Two main case studies - detailed availability/reliability calculation of diesel sets and analysis of safety systems influencing event sequences induced by large LOCA - were performed. Input failure data were taken from publications, a need for failure and reliability data bank was revealed. Current and future activities involves: setup of national data bank for WWER-440 units; full-scope level-I PSA of PAKS NPP in Hungary; operational safety assessment of particular problems at PAKS NPP. In the present article the state of RA and PSA activities in Hungary, as well as the main objectives of ongoing work are described. A need for international cooperation (for unified data collection of WWER-440 units) and for IAEA support (within Interregional Program INT/9/063) is emphasized. (author)

  18. The future is in the numbers: the power of predictive analysis in the biomedical educational environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles A. Gullo

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Biomedical programs have a potential treasure trove of data they can mine to assist admissions committees in identification of students who are likely to do well and help educational committees in the identification of students who are likely to do poorly on standardized national exams and who may need remediation. In this article, we provide a step-by-step approach that schools can utilize to generate data that are useful when predicting the future performance of current students in any given program. We discuss the use of linear regression analysis as the means of generating that data and highlight some of the limitations. Finally, we lament on how the combination of these institution-specific data sets are not being fully utilized at the national level where these data could greatly assist programs at large.

  19. Hidden flows and waste processing--an analysis of illustrative futures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiller, F; Raffield, T; Angus, A; Herben, M; Young, P J; Longhurst, P J; Pollard, S J T

    2010-12-14

    An existing materials flow model is adapted (using Excel and AMBER model platforms) to account for waste and hidden material flows within a domestic environment. Supported by national waste data, the implications of legislative change, domestic resource depletion and waste technology advances are explored. The revised methodology offers additional functionality for economic parameters that influence waste generation and disposal. We explore this accounting system under hypothetical future waste and resource management scenarios, illustrating the utility of the model. A sensitivity analysis confirms that imports, domestic extraction and their associated hidden flows impact mostly on waste generation. The model offers enhanced utility for policy and decision makers with regard to economic mass balance and strategic waste flows, and may promote further discussion about waste technology choice in the context of reducing carbon budgets.

  20. Modelling Framework and the Quantitative Analysis of Distributed Energy Resources in Future Distribution Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Han, Xue; Sandels, Claes; Zhu, Kun

    2013-01-01

    There has been a large body of statements claiming that the large-scale deployment of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) could eventually reshape the future distribution grid operation in numerous ways. Thus, it is necessary to introduce a framework to measure to what extent the power system......, comprising distributed generation, active demand and electric vehicles. Subsequently, quantitative analysis was made on the basis of the current and envisioned DER deployment scenarios proposed for Sweden. Simulations are performed in two typical distribution network models for four seasons. The simulation...... results show that in general the DER deployment brings in the possibilities to reduce the power losses and voltage drops by compensating power from the local generation and optimizing the local load profiles....

  1. The future is in the numbers: the power of predictive analysis in the biomedical educational environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gullo, Charles A.

    2016-01-01

    Biomedical programs have a potential treasure trove of data they can mine to assist admissions committees in identification of students who are likely to do well and help educational committees in the identification of students who are likely to do poorly on standardized national exams and who may need remediation. In this article, we provide a step-by-step approach that schools can utilize to generate data that are useful when predicting the future performance of current students in any given program. We discuss the use of linear regression analysis as the means of generating that data and highlight some of the limitations. Finally, we lament on how the combination of these institution-specific data sets are not being fully utilized at the national level where these data could greatly assist programs at large. PMID:27374246

  2. Base excision repair in Archaea: back to the future in DNA repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grasso, Stefano; Tell, Gianluca

    2014-09-01

    Together with Bacteria and Eukarya, Archaea represents one of the three domain of life. In contrast with the morphological difference existing between Archaea and Eukarya, these two domains are closely related. Phylogenetic analyses confirm this evolutionary relationship showing that most of the proteins involved in DNA transcription and replication are highly conserved. On the contrary, information is scanty about DNA repair pathways and their mechanisms. In the present review the most important proteins involved in base excision repair, namely glycosylases, AP lyases, AP endonucleases, polymerases, sliding clamps, flap endonucleases, and ligases, will be discussed and compared with bacterial and eukaryotic ones. Finally, possible applications and future perspectives derived from studies on Archaea and their repair pathways, will be taken into account. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Heterogeneous electrochemical CO2 reduction using nonmetallic carbon-based catalysts: current status and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Tao; Fan, Qun; Tao, Hengcong; Han, Zishan; Jia, Mingwen; Gao, Yunnan; Ma, Wangjing; Sun, Zhenyu

    2017-11-01

    Electrochemical CO2 reduction (ECR) offers an important pathway for renewable energy storage and fuels production. It still remains a challenge in designing highly selective, energy-efficient, robust, and cost-effective electrocatalysts to facilitate this kinetically slow process. Metal-free carbon-based materials have features of low cost, good electrical conductivity, renewability, diverse structure, and tunability in surface chemistry. In particular, surface functionalization of carbon materials, for example by doping with heteroatoms, enables access to unique active site architectures for CO2 adsorption and activation, leading to interesting catalytic performances in ECR. We aim to provide a comprehensive review of this category of metal-free catalysts for ECR, providing discussions and/or comparisons among different nonmetallic catalysts, and also possible origin of catalytic activity. Fundamentals and some future challenges are also described.

  4. Grid-connected vehicles as the core of future land-based transport systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, Richard; Perl, Anthony

    2007-01-01

    Grid-connected vehicles (GCVs)-e.g., electric trains, metros, trams, and trolley buses-are propelled by electric motors directly connected to remote power sources. Their low at-vehicle energy consumption and ability to use a wide range of renewable energy sources make them strong contenders for urban and interurban transport systems in an era of energy constraints that favours use of renewable fuels, which may lie ahead. Needs for autonomous motorised mobility could be acceptably met in large measure by deployment of personal GCVs, also known as personal rapid transit (PRT). Alternatives, including fuel-cell vehicles and dual-drive vehicles fuelled with ethanol, will be less feasible. The 'car of the future' may not be an automobile so much as a PRT element of a comprehensive GCV-based system that offers at least as much utility and convenience as today's transport systems

  5. Status and plans for future generations of ground-based interferometric gravitational wave antennas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kawamura, Seiji

    2003-01-01

    Several medium- to large-scale ground-based interferometric gravitational-wave antennas have been constructed around the world. Although these antennas of the first generation could detect gravitational waves within a few years, it is necessary to improve the sensitivity of the detectors significantly with advanced technologies to ensure more frequent detection of gravitational waves. Stronger seismic isolation and reduction of thermal noise, especially using cryogenic mirrors, are among the most important technologies that can lead us to the realization of advanced detectors. Some of the advanced technologies are already implemented in some of the existing detectors and others are currently being investigated for the future-generation detectors such as advanced LIGO, LCGT, upgrade of GEO600, AIGO, and EURO. We expect that such advanced detectors will eventually open a new window to the universe and establish a new field, 'gravitational wave astronomy'

  6. Prediction and reconstruction of future and missing unobservable modified Weibull lifetime based on generalized order statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amany E. Aly

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available When a system consisting of independent components of the same type, some appropriate actions may be done as soon as a portion of them have failed. It is, therefore, important to be able to predict later failure times from earlier ones. One of the well-known failure distributions commonly used to model component life, is the modified Weibull distribution (MWD. In this paper, two pivotal quantities are proposed to construct prediction intervals for future unobservable lifetimes based on generalized order statistics (gos from MWD. Moreover, a pivotal quantity is developed to reconstruct missing observations at the beginning of experiment. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted and numerical computations are carried out to investigate the efficiency of presented results. Finally, two illustrative examples for real data sets are analyzed.

  7. Team-Based Care: A Concept Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baik, Dawon

    2017-10-01

    The purpose of this concept analysis is to clarify and analyze the concept of team-based care in clinical practice. Team-based care has garnered attention as a way to enhance healthcare delivery and patient care related to quality and safety. However, there is no consensus on the concept of team-based care; as a result, the lack of common definition impedes further studies on team-based care. This analysis was conducted using Walker and Avant's strategy. Literature searches were conducted using PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), and PsycINFO, with a timeline from January 1985 to December 2015. The analysis demonstrates that the concept of team-based care has three core attributes: (a) interprofessional collaboration, (b) patient-centered approach, and (c) integrated care process. This is accomplished through understanding other team members' roles and responsibilities, a climate of mutual respect, and organizational support. Consequences of team-based care are identified with three aspects: (a) patient, (b) healthcare professional, and (c) healthcare organization. This concept analysis helps better understand the characteristics of team-based care in the clinical practice as well as promote the development of a theoretical definition of team-based care. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Transition Analysis of Promising U.S. Future Fuel Cycles Using ORION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sunny, Eva E.; Worrall, Andrew; Peterson, Joshua L.; Powers, Jeffrey J.; Gehin, Jess C.; Gregg, Robert

    2015-01-01

    The US Department of Energy Office of Fuel Cycle Technologies performed an evaluation and screening (E&S) study of nuclear fuel cycle options to help prioritize future research and development decisions. Previous work for this E&S study focused on establishing equilibrium conditions for analysis examples of 40 nuclear fuel cycle evaluation groups (EGs) and evaluating their performance according to a set of 22 standardized metrics. Following the E&S study, additional studies are being conducted to assess transitioning from the current US fuel cycle to future fuel cycle options identified by the E&S study as being most promising. These studies help inform decisions on how to effectively achieve full transition, estimate the length of time needed to undergo transition from the current fuel cycle, and evaluate performance of nuclear systems and facilities in place during the transition. These studies also help identify any barriers to achieve transition. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Fuel Cycle Options Campaign team used ORION to analyze the transition pathway from the existing US nuclear fuel cycle—the once-through use of low-enriched-uranium (LEU) fuel in thermal-spectrum light water reactors (LWRs)—to a new fuel cycle with continuous recycling of plutonium and uranium in sodium fast reactors (SFRs). This paper discusses the analysis of the transition from an LWR to an SFR fleet using ORION, highlights the role of lifetime extensions of existing LWRs to aid transition, and discusses how a slight delay in SFR deployment can actually reduce the time to achieve an equilibrium fuel cycle.

  9. Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qing; Zhang, Wen; Li, Tingting; Sun, Wenjuan; Yu, Yongqiang; Wang, Guocheng

    2017-08-01

    Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.

  10. Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qing; Zhang, Wen; Li, Tingting; Sun, Wenjuan; Yu, Yongqiang; Wang, Guocheng

    2017-08-01

    Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.

  11. Transition analysis of promising U.S. future fuel cycles using ORION - 5114

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sunny, E.; Worrall, A.; Peterson, J.; Powers, J.; Gehin, J.

    2015-01-01

    The US Department of Energy Office of Fuel Cycle Technologies performed an evaluation and screening (E/S) study of nuclear fuel cycle options to help prioritize future research and development decisions. Previous work for this E/S study focused on establishing equilibrium conditions for analysis examples of 40 nuclear fuel cycle evaluation groups and evaluating their performance according to a set of 22 standardized metrics. Following the E/S study, additional studies are being conducted to assess transition period from the current US fuel cycle to future fuel cycle options identified by the E/S study as being most promising. These studies help inform decisions on how to effectively achieve full transition, estimate the length of time needed to undergo transition from the current fuel cycle, and evaluate performance of nuclear systems and facilities in place during the transition. These studies also help identify any barriers to achieve transition. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Fuel Cycle Options Campaign team used ORION to analyze the transition pathway from the existing US nuclear fuel cycle - the once-through use of low-enriched-uranium (LEU) fuel in thermal-spectrum light water reactors (LWRs) - to a new fuel cycle with continuous recycling of plutonium and uranium in sodium fast reactors (SFRs). This paper discusses the analysis of the transition from an LWR to an SFR fleet using ORION, highlights the role of lifetime extensions of existing LWRs to aid transition, and discusses how a slight delay in SFR deployment can actually reduce the time to achieve an equilibrium fuel cycle. (authors)

  12. Performance Evaluation of Public Key Based Authentication in Future Mobile Communication Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kambourakis Georgios

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available While mobile hosts are evolving into full-IP enabled devices, there is a greater demand to provide a more flexible, reconfigurable, and scalable security mechanism in mobile communication systems beyond 3G (B3G. Work has already begun on such an “all-IP” end-to-end solution, commonly referred to as 4G systems. Fully fledged integration between heterogeneous networks, such as 2.5G, UMTS, WLAN, Bluetooth, and the Internet, demands fully compatible, time-tested, and reliable mechanisms to depend on. SSL protocol has proved its effectiveness in the wired Internet and it will probably be the most promising candidate for future wireless environments. In this paper, we discuss existing problems related to authentication and key agreement (AKA procedures, such as compromised authentication vectors attacks, as they appear in current 2/2.5G/3G mobile communication systems, and propose how SSL, combined with public key infrastructure (PKI elements, can be used to overcome these vulnerabilities. In this B3G environment, we perceive authentication as a service, which has to be performed at the higher protocol layers irrespective of the underlying network technology. Furthermore, we analyze the effectiveness of such a solution, based on measurements of a “prototype” implementation. Performance measurements indicate that SSL-based authentication can be possible in terms of service time in future wireless systems, while it can simultaneously provide both the necessary flexibility to network operators and a high level of confidence to end users.

  13. Optimal Sizing and Performance Evaluation of a Renewable Energy Based Microgrid in Future Seaports

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baizura Binti Ahamad, Nor; Othman @ Marzuki, Muzaidi Bin; Quintero, Juan Carlos Vasquez

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents the optimal design and specifies the dimension, energy planning and evaluates the performance of a microgrid to supply the electricity to the load by using integrated microgrid. The integrated system consists of PV, wind turbine and a battery for grid-connected. This paper also...... analyzes the performance of the designed system based on seaport located in Copenhagen, Denmark as a case study. The analysis is performed by using Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables (HOMER) software which includes optimization and sensitivity analysis result. The simulation result indicates...... that the implementation of microgrid technologies would be a convenient solution to supply the electricity to the load application (shipboard)...

  14. Optimal Sizing and Performance Evaluation of a Renewable Energy Based Microgrid in Future Seaports

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baizura Binti Ahamad, Nor; Othman @ Marzuki, Muzaidi Bin; Quintero, Juan Carlos Vasquez

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents the optimal design and specifies the dimension, energy planning and evaluates the performance of a microgrid to supply the electricity to the load by using integrated microgrid. The integrated system consists of PV, wind turbine and a battery for grid-connected. This paper also...... analyzes the performance of the designed system based on seaport located in Copenhagen, Denmark as a case study. The analysis is performed by using Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables (HOMER) software which includes optimization and sensitivity analysis result. The simulation result indicates...

  15. Effects of implementation of problem-based learning tutorials on fifth-year pharmacy students and future issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Atsuko; Morone, Mieko; Azuma, Yutaka

    2011-01-01

    At Tohoku Pharmaceutical University, problem-based learning (PBL) tutorials were incorporated into "prescription analysis" and "case analysis" for fifth-year students in 2010 with the following objectives: ① application and confirmation of acquired knowledge and skills, and acquisition of ② communication ability, ③ presentation ability, ④ cooperativeness through groupwork, and ⑤ information collecting ability. In the present study, we conducted a questionnaire survey on a total of 158 fifth-year students in order to investigate the educational benefits of PBL tutorials. The results showed that the above five objectives of PBL tutorials were being achieved, and confirmed the educational benefits expected of PBL tutorials. In contrast, it was found to be necessary to improve the contents of scenarios and lectures, time allocation regarding schedules, the learning environment, the role of tutors, and other matters. In order to maximize the educational benefits of PBL tutorials, it will be necessary in the future to continue to conduct surveys on students and make improvements to the curriculum based on survey results.

  16. Al-based anti-corrosion and T-permeation barrier development for future DEMO blankets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krauss, W.; Konys, J.; Holstein, N.; Zimmermann, H.

    2011-01-01

    In the Helium-Cooled-Liquid-Lead (HCLL) design of Test-Blanket-Modules (TBM's) for a future fusion power plant Pb-15.7Li is used as liquid breeder which is in direct contact with the structure material, e.g. EUROFER steel. Compatibility testing showed that high corrosion attack appears and that the dissolved steel components form precipitates with a high risk of system blockages. A reliable operation needs coatings as corrosion barriers. The earlier developed Hot-Dip Aluminisation (HDA) process has shown that Al-based scales can act as anti-corrosion as well as T-permeation barriers. Meanwhile two advanced electro-chemically based processes for deposition of Al-scales were successfully developed. The first (ECA = Electro-Chemical Al-deposition) is working with an organic electrolyte and the second one (ECX = Electro-Chemical-X-metal-deposition) is based on ionic liquids. Coatings in the μm-range were deposited homogeneously with exact controllable thicknesses. Metallurgical investigations showed the successful generation of protective scales and compatibility testing demonstrated the barrier function.

  17. Physics-based distributed snow models in the operational arena: Current and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winstral, A. H.; Jonas, T.; Schirmer, M.; Helbig, N.

    2017-12-01

    The demand for modeling tools robust to climate change and weather extremes along with coincident increases in computational capabilities have led to an increase in the use of physics-based snow models in operational applications. Current operational applications include the WSL-SLF's across Switzerland, ASO's in California, and USDA-ARS's in Idaho. While the physics-based approaches offer many advantages there remain limitations and modeling challenges. The most evident limitation remains computation times that often limit forecasters to a single, deterministic model run. Other limitations however remain less conspicuous amidst the assumptions that these models require little to no calibration based on their foundation on physical principles. Yet all energy balance snow models seemingly contain parameterizations or simplifications of processes where validation data are scarce or present understanding is limited. At the research-basin scale where many of these models were developed these modeling elements may prove adequate. However when applied over large areas, spatially invariable parameterizations of snow albedo, roughness lengths and atmospheric exchange coefficients - all vital to determining the snowcover energy balance - become problematic. Moreover as we apply models over larger grid cells, the representation of sub-grid variability such as the snow-covered fraction adds to the challenges. Here, we will demonstrate some of the major sensitivities of distributed energy balance snow models to particular model constructs, the need for advanced and spatially flexible methods and parameterizations, and prompt the community for open dialogue and future collaborations to further modeling capabilities.

  18. Qualification test of a MPPC-based PET module for future MRI-PET scanners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurei, Y.; Kataoka, J.; Kato, T.; Fujita, T.; Funamoto, H.; Tsujikawa, T.; Yamamoto, S.

    2014-11-01

    We have developed a high-resolution, compact Positron Emission Tomography (PET) module for future use in MRI-PET scanners. The module consists of large-area, 4×4 ch MPPC arrays (Hamamatsu S11827-3344MG) optically coupled with Ce:LYSO scintillators fabricated into 12×12 matrices of 1×1 mm2 pixels. At this stage, a pair of module and coincidence circuits was assembled into an experimental prototype gantry arranged in a ring of 90 mm in diameter to form the MPPC-based PET system. The PET detector ring was then positioned around the RF coil of the 4.7 T MRI system. We took an image of a point 22Na source under fast spin echo (FSE) and gradient echo (GE), in order to measure interference between the MPPC-based PET and the MRI. We only found a slight degradation in the spatial resolution of the PET image from 1.63 to 1.70 mm (FWHM; x-direction), or 1.48-1.55 mm (FWHM; y-direction) when operating with the MRI, while the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the MRI image was only degraded by 5%. These results encouraged us to develop a more advanced version of the MRI-PET gantry with eight MPPC-based PET modules, whose detailed design and first qualification test are also presented in this paper.

  19. Al-based anti-corrosion and T-permeation barrier development for future DEMO blankets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krauss, W., E-mail: wolfgang.krauss@kit.edu [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Hermann von Helmholtz Platz 1, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany); Konys, J.; Holstein, N.; Zimmermann, H. [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Hermann von Helmholtz Platz 1, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany)

    2011-10-01

    In the Helium-Cooled-Liquid-Lead (HCLL) design of Test-Blanket-Modules (TBM's) for a future fusion power plant Pb-15.7Li is used as liquid breeder which is in direct contact with the structure material, e.g. EUROFER steel. Compatibility testing showed that high corrosion attack appears and that the dissolved steel components form precipitates with a high risk of system blockages. A reliable operation needs coatings as corrosion barriers. The earlier developed Hot-Dip Aluminisation (HDA) process has shown that Al-based scales can act as anti-corrosion as well as T-permeation barriers. Meanwhile two advanced electro-chemically based processes for deposition of Al-scales were successfully developed. The first (ECA = Electro-Chemical Al-deposition) is working with an organic electrolyte and the second one (ECX = Electro-Chemical-X-metal-deposition) is based on ionic liquids. Coatings in the {mu}m-range were deposited homogeneously with exact controllable thicknesses. Metallurgical investigations showed the successful generation of protective scales and compatibility testing demonstrated the barrier function.

  20. Department of Defense Energy and Logistics: Implications of Historic and Future Cost, Risk, and Capability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tisa, Paul C.

    Every year the DoD spends billions satisfying its large petroleum demand. This spending is highly sensitive to uncontrollable and poorly understood market forces. Additionally, while some stakeholders may not prioritize its monetary cost and risk, energy is fundamentally coupled to other critical factors. Energy, operational capability, and logistics are heavily intertwined and dependent on uncertain security environment and technology futures. These components and their relationships are less understood. Without better characterization, future capabilities may be significantly limited by present-day acquisition decisions. One attempt to demonstrate these costs and risks to decision makers has been through a metric known as the Fully Burdened Cost of Energy (FBCE). FBCE is defined as the commodity price for fuel plus many of these hidden costs. The metric encouraged a valuable conversation and is still required by law. However, most FBCE development stopped before the lessons from that conversation were incorporated. Current implementation is easy to employ but creates little value. Properly characterizing the costs and risks of energy and putting them in a useful tradespace requires a new framework. This research aims to highlight energy's complex role in many aspects of military operations, the critical need to incorporate it in decisions, and a novel framework to do so. It is broken into five parts. The first describes the motivation behind FBCE, the limits of current implementation, and outlines a new framework that aids decisions. Respectively, the second, third, and fourth present a historic analysis of the connections between military capabilities and energy, analyze the recent evolution of this conversation within the DoD, and pull the historic analysis into a revised framework. The final part quantifies the potential impacts of deeply uncertain futures and technological development and introduces an expanded framework that brings capability, energy, and

  1. Analysis on the Influence of Stock Index Futures on Chinese Stock Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王钊

    2014-01-01

    As the first product of financial futures in China, CSI 300 Stock Index Futures is a symbol of the continual improvement and development of Chinese capital market system. So it would be bound to generate immeasurable influence on Chinese capital market and financial system. Starting from introducing the relevant summaries of stock index futures, this paper analyzes the influence of the stock index futures on the fluctuation in the international stock market;then, it analyzes influence of the stock index futures on the fluctuation in Chinese stock market, in order to propose some suggestions to the policies for developing Chinese stock index futures.

  2. Research of second harmonic generation images based on texture analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yao; Li, Yan; Gong, Haiming; Zhu, Xiaoqin; Huang, Zufang; Chen, Guannan

    2014-09-01

    Texture analysis plays a crucial role in identifying objects or regions of interest in an image. It has been applied to a variety of medical image processing, ranging from the detection of disease and the segmentation of specific anatomical structures, to differentiation between healthy and pathological tissues. Second harmonic generation (SHG) microscopy as a potential noninvasive tool for imaging biological tissues has been widely used in medicine, with reduced phototoxicity and photobleaching. In this paper, we clarified the principles of texture analysis including statistical, transform, structural and model-based methods and gave examples of its applications, reviewing studies of the technique. Moreover, we tried to apply texture analysis to the SHG images for the differentiation of human skin scar tissues. Texture analysis method based on local binary pattern (LBP) and wavelet transform was used to extract texture features of SHG images from collagen in normal and abnormal scars, and then the scar SHG images were classified into normal or abnormal ones. Compared with other texture analysis methods with respect to the receiver operating characteristic analysis, LBP combined with wavelet transform was demonstrated to achieve higher accuracy. It can provide a new way for clinical diagnosis of scar types. At last, future development of texture analysis in SHG images were discussed.

  3. Mass spectrometry based proteomics profiling as diagnostic tool in oncology: current status and future perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Findeisen, Peter; Neumaier, Michael

    2009-01-01

    Proteomics analysis has been heralded as a novel tool for identifying new and specific biomarkers that may improve diagnosis and monitoring of various disease states. Recent years have brought a number of proteomics profiling technologies. Although proteomics profiling has resulted in the detection of disease-associated differences and modification of proteins, current proteomics technologies display certain limitations that are hampering the introduction of these new technologies into clinical laboratory diagnostics and routine applications. In this review, we summarize current advances in mass spectrometry based biomarker discovery. The promises and challenges of this new technology are discussed with particular emphasis on diagnostic perspectives of mass-spectrometry based proteomics profiling for malignant diseases.

  4. Well-To-Wheel Analysis of Solar Produced Hydrogen for Future Transportation Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Remo Felder; Anton Meier

    2006-01-01

    Hydrogen production, transport, and usage in future passenger car transportation systems is compared for selected solar and conventional hydrogen production technologies using a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) approach. Solar scenarios show distinctly lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than fossil-based scenarios. For example, using solar produced hydrogen in fuel cell cars reduces life cycle GHG emissions by 75% compared to advanced gasoline vehicles and by more than 90% if car and road infrastructure are not considered. Utilization of solar produced hydrogen has the potential of reducing fossil energy requirements by a factor of up to 10 compared to conventional technologies. Environmental impacts are associated with the construction of the steel-intensive infrastructure for concentrating solar power plants due to mineral and fossil resource consumption as well as discharge of pollutants related to today's non-sustainable steel production technology. (authors)

  5. Discussion on Safety Analysis and Regulatory Framework for the Future Fusion Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Myoung-suk; Oh, Kyemin; Heo, Gyunyoung [Kyung Hee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    This study aims to secure the core original technologies and expand the base of domestic specialist at a fusion area by pursuing and developing nonprocurement technologies for ITER. From this project, the latest technical data and experiences have been recorded for the development of the safety regulation and safety-related design criteria of the future fusion reactors in Korea. In this context, this paper discusses on the progress of surveying the ITER licensing process and regulatory issues revealed. The regulation and licensing process for a fusion power plant has been expected to be quite different due to unique and unforeseen properties differently from the conventional nuclear facilities. To overcome this, not only various safety issues should be analyzed, but safety objectives, regulatory requirements, and design variables should also be established in detailed design phase. We expect our survey will contribute on the discussion to establish general and technical safety principles for national fusion power plant technology plans.

  6. Well-To-Wheel Analysis of Solar Produced Hydrogen for Future Transportation Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Remo Felder; Anton Meier [Solar Technology Laboratory, Paul Scherrer Institut, CH-5232 Villigen PSI, (Switzerland)

    2006-07-01

    Hydrogen production, transport, and usage in future passenger car transportation systems is compared for selected solar and conventional hydrogen production technologies using a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) approach. Solar scenarios show distinctly lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than fossil-based scenarios. For example, using solar produced hydrogen in fuel cell cars reduces life cycle GHG emissions by 75% compared to advanced gasoline vehicles and by more than 90% if car and road infrastructure are not considered. Utilization of solar produced hydrogen has the potential of reducing fossil energy requirements by a factor of up to 10 compared to conventional technologies. Environmental impacts are associated with the construction of the steel-intensive infrastructure for concentrating solar power plants due to mineral and fossil resource consumption as well as discharge of pollutants related to today's non-sustainable steel production technology. (authors)

  7. Breath analysis based on micropreconcentrator for early cancer diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sang-Seok

    2018-02-01

    We are developing micropreconcentrators based on micro/nanotechnology to detect trace levels of volatile organic compound (VOC) gases contained in human and canine exhaled breath. The possibility of using exhaled VOC gases as biomarkers for various cancer diagnoses has been previously discussed. For early cancer diagnosis, detection of trace levels of VOC gas is indispensable. Using micropreconcentrators based on MEMS technology or nanotechnology is very promising for detection of VOC gas. A micropreconcentrator based breath analysis technique also has advantages from the viewpoints of cost performance and availability for various cancers diagnosis. In this paper, we introduce design, fabrication and evaluation results of our MEMS and nanotechnology based micropreconcentrators. In the MEMS based device, we propose a flower leaf type Si microstructure, and its shape and configuration are optimized quantitatively by finite element method simulation. The nanotechnology based micropreconcentrator consists of carbon nanotube (CNT) structures. As a result, we achieve ppb level VOC gas detection with our micropreconcentrators and usual gas chromatography system that can detect on the order of ppm VOC in gas samples. In performance evaluation, we also confirm that the CNT based micropreconcentrator shows 115 times better concentration ratio than that of the Si based micropreconcentrator. Moreover, we discuss a commercialization idea for new cancer diagnosis using breath analysis. Future work and preliminary clinical testing in dogs is also discussed.

  8. Groundwater remediation from the past to the future: A bibliometric analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shu; Mao, Guozhu; Crittenden, John; Liu, Xi; Du, Huibin

    2017-08-01

    Groundwater is an important component of terrestrial ecosystems and plays a role in geochemical cycling. Groundwater is also used for agricultural irrigation and for the domestic supply of drinking water in most nations. However, groundwater contamination has led to many research efforts on groundwater remediation technologies and strategies. This study evaluated a total of 5486 groundwater remediation-related publications from 1995 to 2015 using bibliometric technology and social network analysis, to provide a quantitative analysis and a global view on the current research trend and future research directions. Our results underline a strong research interest and an urgent need to remediate groundwater pollution due to the increasing number of both groundwater contamination and remediation publications. In the past two decades, the United States (U.S.) published 41.1% of the papers and it was the core country of the international collaboration network, cooperating with the other 19 most productive countries. Besides the active international collaboration, the funding agencies also played positive roles to foster the science and technology publications. With respect to the analysis of the distribution of funding agencies, the National Science Foundation of China sponsored most of the groundwater remediation research. We also identified the most productive journals, Environmental Science and Technology and Journal of Contaminant Hydrology, which published 334 and 259 scientific articles (including research articles and reviews) over the past 20 years, respectively. In addition to journal publications, a patent analysis was performed to show the impact of intellectual property protection on journal publications. Three major remediation technologies, including chemical oxidation, biodegradation and adsorption, have received increasing interest in both journal publication and patent development. Our results provide a valuable reference and global overview to identify

  9. The analysis of return on speculative trading with futures contracts of agriculture commodities in the context of the currency risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oldřich Šoba

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is focused on analysis of return on speculative operations with futures contracts from the view of participators not undertaking and undertaking the currency risk. The currency risk is determined by unexpected change of relevant exchange rate (currency denomination of futures contracts / domestic currency of participator. The paper analyses the basic factors influencing the profitability of these operations such as relative change of futures contract value, leverage incidence and relative change of relevant exchange rate. The paper is focused on futures contracts of the world most important agricultural commodities. The conclusion of the paper for participators not undertaking the currency risk is following: The relative change of futures contract is main factor for the calculation of return on speculative operation. This change is multiplied by leverage incidence finally. The conclusion of the paper for participators undertaking the currency risk is following: The relative change of relevant exchange rate is not usually relevant for the calculation of return on speculative operation. Main factor is the relative change of futures contract because this change is multiplied by leverage incidence finally but the relative change of relevant exchange rate isn’t.Neverthless the conclusions of this paper are not valid only for futures contracts of agricultural commodities but generally also for other commodity futures contracts and futures contracts where underlying assets are not commodities but for example financial assets.

  10. An Empirical Analysis of the Price Discovery Function of Shanghai Fuel Oil Futures Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Zhen; Liu Zhenhai; Chen Chao

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyzes the role of price discovery of Shanghai fuel oil futures market by using methods, such as unit root test, co-integration test, error correction model, Granger causality test, impulse-response function and variance decomposition. The results showed that there exists a strong relationship between the spot price of Huangpu fuel oil spot market and the futures price of Shanghai fuel oil futures market. In addition, the Shanghai fuel oil futures market exhibits a highly effective price discovery function.

  11. Robust Mediation Analysis Based on Median Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

    2014-01-01

    Mediation analysis has many applications in psychology and the social sciences. The most prevalent methods typically assume that the error distribution is normal and homoscedastic. However, this assumption may rarely be met in practice, which can affect the validity of the mediation analysis. To address this problem, we propose robust mediation analysis based on median regression. Our approach is robust to various departures from the assumption of homoscedasticity and normality, including heavy-tailed, skewed, contaminated, and heteroscedastic distributions. Simulation studies show that under these circumstances, the proposed method is more efficient and powerful than standard mediation analysis. We further extend the proposed robust method to multilevel mediation analysis, and demonstrate through simulation studies that the new approach outperforms the standard multilevel mediation analysis. We illustrate the proposed method using data from a program designed to increase reemployment and enhance mental health of job seekers. PMID:24079925

  12. Structural Analysis and Optimization of a Composite Fan Blade for Future Aircraft Engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coroneos, Rula M.; Gorla, Rama Subba Reddy

    2012-09-01

    This paper addresses the structural analysis and optimization of a composite sandwich ply lay-up of a NASA baseline solid metallic fan blade comparable to a future Boeing 737 MAX aircraft engine. Sandwich construction with a polymer matrix composite face sheet and honeycomb aluminum core replaces the original baseline solid metallic fan model made of Titanium. The focus of this work is to design the sandwich composite blade with the optimum number of plies for the face sheet that will withstand the combined pressure and centrifugal loads while the constraints are satisfied and the baseline aerodynamic and geometric parameters are maintained. To satisfy the requirements a sandwich construction for the blade is proposed with composite face sheets and a weak core made of honeycomb aluminum material. For aerodynamic considerations, the thickness of the core is optimized where as the overall blade thickness is held fixed in order not to alter the original airfoil geometry. Weight reduction is taken as the objective function by varying the core thickness of the blade within specified upper and lower bounds. Constraints are imposed on radial displacement limitations and ply failure strength. From the optimum design, the minimum number of plies, which will not fail, is back-calculated. The ply lay-up of the blade is adjusted from the calculated number of plies and final structural analysis is performed. Analyses were carried out by utilizing the OpenMDAO Framework, developed at NASA Glenn Research Center combining optimization with structural assessment.

  13. Complexity analysis based on generalized deviation for financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chao; Shang, Pengjian

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, a new modified method is proposed as a measure to investigate the correlation between past price and future volatility for financial time series, known as the complexity analysis based on generalized deviation. In comparison with the former retarded volatility model, the new approach is both simple and computationally efficient. The method based on the generalized deviation function presents us an exhaustive way showing the quantization of the financial market rules. Robustness of this method is verified by numerical experiments with both artificial and financial time series. Results show that the generalized deviation complexity analysis method not only identifies the volatility of financial time series, but provides a comprehensive way distinguishing the different characteristics between stock indices and individual stocks. Exponential functions can be used to successfully fit the volatility curves and quantify the changes of complexity for stock market data. Then we study the influence for negative domain of deviation coefficient and differences during the volatile periods and calm periods. after the data analysis of the experimental model, we found that the generalized deviation model has definite advantages in exploring the relationship between the historical returns and future volatility.

  14. Looking to the future of new media in health marketing: deriving propositions based on traditional theories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Della, Lindsay J; Eroglu, Dogan; Bernhardt, Jay M; Edgerton, Erin; Nall, Janice

    2008-01-01

    Market trend data show that the media marketplace continues to rapidly evolve. Recent research shows that substantial portions of the U.S. media population are "new media" users. Today, more than ever before, media consumers are exposed to multiple media at the same point in time, encouraged to participate in media content generation, and challenged to learn, access, and use the new media that are continually entering the market. These media trends have strong implications for how consumers of health information access, process, and retain health-related knowledge. In this article we review traditional information processing models and theories of interpersonal and mass media access and consumption. We make several theory-based propositions for how traditional information processing and media consumption concepts will function as new media usage continues to increase. These propositions are supported by new media usage data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's entry into the new media market (e.g., podcasting, virtual events, blogging, and webinars). Based on these propositions, we conclude by presenting both opportunities and challenges that public health communicators and marketers will face in the future.

  15. Future regulatory research needs on risk-informed and performance-based regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Wong Sik; Kim, Hho Jung

    2004-01-01

    The USNRC has pursued the incorporation of risk-informed and performance-based regulation (RIPBR) into nuclear safety regulatory system, as an alternative to improve existing nuclear safety regulation of nuclear power plants, which is deterministic and prescriptive. It focuses on the use of risk insight from probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). Recently, it becomes necessary to find a way to improve regulatory efficiency and effectiveness in order to cover the increasing regulatory needs in Korea. Also, the utility has optimized design and operation of the plant using PSA insight and equipment performance information. According to the increase of the necessity for regulatory improvement using risk and performance information, KINS (Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety) is developing, as a part of a mid and long-term project of Nuclear R and D program, how to adopt the RIPBR in Korean nuclear regulatory system. As the interim results, three basic directions and several principles that are necessary to implement RIPBR model were already identified from the previous study. This paper suggests a direction to future regulatory research on RIPBR based on the previous studies including the review of international trend of RIPBR and the evaluation of risk-informed regulatory environment

  16. Future Cognitive Ability: US IQ Prediction until 2060 Based on NAEP

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    The US National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) measures cognitive competences in reading and mathematics of US students (last 2012 survey N = 50,000). The long-term development based on results from 1971 to 2012 allows a prediction of future cognitive trends. For predicting US averages also demographic trends have to be considered. The largest groups’ (White) average of 1978/80 was set at M = 100 and SD = 15 and was used as a benchmark. Based on two past NAEP development periods for 17-year-old students, 1978/80 to 2012 (more optimistic) and 1992 to 2012 (more pessimistic), and demographic projections from the US Census Bureau, cognitive trends until 2060 for the entire age cohort and ethnic groups were estimated. Estimated population averages for 2060 are 103 (optimistic) or 102 (pessimistic). The average rise per decade is dec = 0.76 or 0.45 IQ points. White-Black and White-Hispanic gaps are declining by half, Asian-White gaps treble. The catch-up of minorities (their faster ability growth) contributes around 2 IQ to the general rise of 3 IQ; however, their larger demographic increase reduces the general rise at about the similar amount (-1.4 IQ). Because minorities with faster ability growth also rise in their population proportion the interactive term is positive (around 1 IQ). Consequences for economic and societal development are discussed. PMID:26460731

  17. Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) based advanced dermal therapeutics: current trends and future potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuche, Kaushik; Maheshwari, Rahul; Tambe, Vishakha; Mak, Kit-Kay; Jogi, Hardi; Raval, Nidhi; Pichika, Mallikarjuna Rao; Kumar Tekade, Rakesh

    2018-05-17

    The search for effective and non-invasive delivery modules to transport therapeutic molecules across skin has led to the discovery of a number of nanocarriers (viz.: liposomes, ethosomes, dendrimers, etc.) in the last few decades. However, available literature suggests that these delivery modules face several issues including poor stability, low encapsulation efficiency, and scale-up hurdles. Recently, carbon nanotubes (CNTs) emerged as a versatile tool to deliver therapeutics across skin. Superior stability, high loading capacity, well-developed synthesis protocol as well as ease of scale-up are some of the reason for growing interest in CNTs. CNTs have a unique physical architecture and a large surface area with unique surface chemistry that can be tailored for vivid biomedical applications. CNTs have been thus largely engaged in the development of transdermal systems such as tuneable hydrogels, programmable nonporous membranes, electroresponsive skin modalities, protein channel mimetic platforms, reverse iontophoresis, microneedles, and dermal buckypapers. In addition, CNTs were also employed in the development of RNA interference (RNAi) based therapeutics for correcting defective dermal genes. This review expounds the state-of-art synthesis methodologies, skin penetration mechanism, drug liberation profile, loading potential, characterization techniques, and transdermal applications along with a summary on patent/regulatory status and future scope of CNT based skin therapeutics.

  18. The future of cytotoxic therapy: selective cytotoxicity based on biology is the key

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bono, Johann S de; Tolcher, Anthony W; Rowinsky, Eric K

    2003-01-01

    Although mortality from breast cancer is decreasing, 15% or more of all patients ultimately develop incurable metastatic disease. It is hoped that new classes of target-based cytotoxic therapeutics will significantly improve the outcome for these patients. Many of these novel agents have displayed cytotoxic activity in preclinical and clinical evaluations, with little toxicity. Such preferential cytotoxicity against malignant tissues will remain tantamount to the Holy Grail in oncologic therapeutics because this portends improved patient tolerance and overall quality of life, and the capacity to deliver combination therapy. Combinations of such rationally designed target-based therapies are likely to be increasingly important in treating patients with breast carcinoma. The anticancer efficacy of these agents will, however, remain dependent on the involvement of the targets of these agents in the biology of the individual patient's disease. Results of DNA microarray analyses have raised high hopes that the analyses of RNA expression levels can successfully predict patient prognosis, and indicate that the ability to rapidly 'fingerprint' the oncogenic profile of a patient's tumor is now possible. It is hoped that these studies will support the identification of the molecules driving a tumor's growth, and the selection of the appropriate combination of targeted agents in the near future

  19. Insect-based protein: future promising protein source for fish cultured

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nugroho, R. A.; Nur, F. M.

    2018-04-01

    As one of the vital component feed used in fisheries, fishmeal (FM) is generally added to the fish diet to enhance fish growth, digestive performance and absorption of nutrients. This addition contributes significantly to the variable production cost in the aquaculture industry. Expanded production of carnivorous species requiring high protein, high-energy feeds will further tax global fish meal. Thus, research based on the low-cost budget for feed operating cost should be strategized to assist aquaculturists in enhancing fish productivity. Moreover, suitable alternative feed ingredients will have to be utilized to provide the essential nutrients and energy needed to fuel the growth of aquaculture production. To this effect, the use of insect-based protein sources to replace FM that often scarce, expensive, limited availability, and leads to high fish production costs is alternative ways and has been gaining momentum. Currently, Insects have been proposed as one of the potential future protein sources of protein because of the production of insects is highly sustainable. Farming insects is characterized by higher food conversion efficiencies, lower environmental impact, and higher potential to be grown on waste streams.

  20. Qualitative analysis of interviews of future non-affective psychotic disorder patients and non-psychiatric controls: preliminary results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katya Rubinstein

    2014-03-01

    Conclusions: The findings of this unique historical-prospective qualitative analysis of interviews performed before the onset of psychosis, confirmed previous findings of premorbid abnormality of future non-affective psychosis patients. Using qualitative analysis enabled obtaining a more in-depth understanding of the real-life experience of the premorbid period among patients with non-affective psychotic disorders.

  1. [Model-based biofuels system analysis: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Shiyan; Zhang, Xiliang; Zhao, Lili; Ou, Xunmin

    2011-03-01

    Model-based system analysis is an important tool for evaluating the potential and impacts of biofuels, and for drafting biofuels technology roadmaps and targets. The broad reach of the biofuels supply chain requires that biofuels system analyses span a range of disciplines, including agriculture/forestry, energy, economics, and the environment. Here we reviewed various models developed for or applied to modeling biofuels, and presented a critical analysis of Agriculture/Forestry System Models, Energy System Models, Integrated Assessment Models, Micro-level Cost, Energy and Emission Calculation Models, and Specific Macro-level Biofuel Models. We focused on the models' strengths, weaknesses, and applicability, facilitating the selection of a suitable type of model for specific issues. Such an analysis was a prerequisite for future biofuels system modeling, and represented a valuable resource for researchers and policy makers.

  2. Analysis of Compound Water Hazard in Coastal Urbanized Areas under the Future Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shibuo, Y.; Taniguchi, K.; Sanuki, H.; Yoshimura, K.; Lee, S.; Tajima, Y.; Koike, T.; Furumai, H.; Sato, S.

    2017-12-01

    Several studies indicate the increased frequency and magnitude of heavy rainfalls as well as the sea level rise under the future climate, which implies that coastal low-lying urbanized areas may experience increased risk against flooding. In such areas, where river discharge, tidal fluctuation, and city drainage networks altogether influence urban inundation, it is necessary to consider their potential interference to understand the effect of compound water hazard. For instance, pump stations cannot pump out storm water when the river water level is high, and in the meantime the river water level shall increase when it receives pumped water from cities. At the further downstream, as the tidal fluctuation regulates the water levels in the river, it will also affect the functionality of pump stations and possible inundation from rivers. In this study, we estimate compound water hazard in the coastal low-lying urbanized areas of the Tsurumi river basin under the future climate. We developed the seamlessly integrated river, sewerage, and coastal hydraulic model that can simulate river water levels, water flow in sewerage network, and inundation from the rivers and/or the coast to address the potential interference issue. As a forcing, the pseudo global warming method, which applies the changes in GCM anomaly to re-analysis data, is employed to produce ensemble typhoons to drive the seamlessly integrated model. The results show that heavy rainfalls caused by the observed typhoon generally become stronger under the pseudo global climate condition. It also suggests that the coastal low-lying areas become extensively inundated if the onset of river flooding and storm surge coincides.

  3. Climate mitigation under an uncertain technology future: A TIAM-World analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labriet, Maryse; Kanudia, Amit; Loulou, Richard

    2012-01-01

    This paper explores the impacts of long-term technology and climate uncertainties on the optimal evolution of the World energy system. Stochastic programming with the TIAM-World model is used for a parametric analysis of hedging strategies, varying the probabilities associated to each of two contrasted technology outlooks. The parametric analysis constitutes an original supplement to the computation of hedging strategies by identifying technologies that are robust under a broad range of probabilities of the two technology outlooks. Natural gas appears to be one of the most appealing robust options in an uncertain technological context, especially in China, given its relatively low emissions and the low capital cost of associated technologies. Natural gas and some other options are in fact considered as “super-hedging” actions, penetrating more in the hedging solution than in any of the deterministic scenarios. Nuclear power and CCS use are less robust: they depend much more on either the level of the climate target or the probabilities of the technology outlooks. The analysis also shows that technological uncertainty has a greater impact under milder climate targets than under more severe ones. Future research might consider a larger set of possible technology outlooks, as well as specific analyses focused on key characteristics of low-carbon technologies. - Highlights: ► The hedging strategy is not an average of deterministic strategies. ► The hedging offers a mix of abatement actions that cannot easily be found otherwise. ► Natural gas is an appealing choice in an uncertain context, especially in China. ► China reduces its emissions only when options in other countries are exhausted.

  4. Development of X-33/X-34 Aerothermodynamic Data Bases: Lessons Learned and Future Enhancements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, C. G.

    2000-01-01

    led to delays in the optimization phase, as OMLs required modification to provide adequate transonic aerodynamic performance without sacrificing subsonic and hypersonic performance. Funding schedules for industry, based on technical milestones, also presented challenges to aerothermodynamics seeking optimum flying characteristics across the subsonic to hypersonic speed regimes and minimum aeroheating. This paper is concluded with a brief discussion of enhancements in ground-based testing/CFD capabilities necessary to partially/fully satisfy future requirements.

  5. X-ray microanalysis with transition edge sensors. The future of material analysis with scanning electron microscopes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hollerith, C.

    2006-07-05

    In current experiments and technical applications the demand for new and advanced concepts for the detection of radiation and particle is increasing. Low temperature detectors such as Transition Edge Sensors (TES) have been developed as ultrahigh-resolution radiation and particle detectors offering advantages in manifold applications. They were designed primarily for astrophysical experiments such as the dark matter search. In material analysis they have been introduced to revolutionize mass spectroscopy of biological molecules and Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (EDS). EDS is the determination of the elemental constitution of samples in scanning electron microscopes (SEMs) with characteristic X-ray radiation excited by the electron beam. The use of TES detectors improves the EDS analysis of small volumes such as particles or thin layers. This is especially important for the semiconductor industry because of the continual shrinking of device size. Current structure sizes of 65 nm are already demanding new approaches in analytic methodology. In this thesis the introduction and improvement of a fully automated TES detector system in the industrial environment of a semiconductor failure analysis lab is described. This system, marketed under the trade name of 'Polaris' by the manufacturer, is based on a mechanical pulse tube cooler in combination with an adiabatic demagnetization refrigerator (ADR) for cooling the TES detector to its operating temperature. Several large improvements had to be made to the system during the total system integration. The energy resolution could be improved significantly thus enabling a better peak separation and the measurement of chemical shifts. Due to the small area of TES detectors compared with conventional EDS detectors the efficiency of the system proved to be too low for everyday use. A polycapillary X-ray lens was added to the system in order to solve this problem. The application of the lens, however, brought its

  6. Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason

    2017-01-01

    Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr−1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

  7. Future Scenarios of Land Change Based on Empirical Data and Demographic Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason T.

    2017-11-01

    Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001-2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr-1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

  8. Development of a MPPC-based prototype gantry for future MRI-PET scanners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurei, Y.; Kataoka, J.; Kato, T.; Fujita, T.; Ohshima, T.; Taya, T.; Yamamoto, S.

    2014-12-01

    We have developed a high spatial resolution, compact Positron Emission Tomography (PET) module designed for small animals and intended for use in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) systems. This module consists of large-area, 4 × 4 ch MPPC arrays (S11830-3344MF; Hamamatsu Photonics K.K.) optically coupled with Ce-doped (Lu,Y)2(SiO4)O (Ce:LYSO) scintillators fabricated into 16 × 16 matrices of 0.5 × 0.5 mm2 pixels. We set the temperature sensor (LM73CIMK-0; National Semiconductor Corp.) at the rear of the MPPC acceptance surface, and apply optimum voltage to maintain the gain. The eight MPPC-based PET modules and coincidence circuits were assembled into a gantry arranged in a ring 90 mm in diameter to form the MPPC-based PET system. We have developed two types PET gantry: one made of non-magnetic metal and the other made of acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) resins. The PET gantry was positioned around the RF coil of the 4.7 T MRI system. We took an image of a point }22Na source under fast spin echo (FSE) and gradient echo (GE), in order to measure the interference between the MPPC-based PET and MRI. The spatial resolution of PET imaging in a transaxial plane of about 1 mm (FWHM) was achieved in all cases. Operating with PET made of ABS has no effect on MR images, while operating with PET made of non-magnetic metal has a significant detrimental effect on MR images. This paper describes our quantitative evaluations of PET images and MR images, and presents a more advanced version of the gantry for future MRI/DOI-PET systems.

  9. New Zealand's neurologist workforce: a pragmatic analysis of demand, supply and future projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranta, Annemarei Anna; Tiwari, Priyesh; Mottershead, John; Abernethy, David; Simpson, Mark; Brickell, Kiri; Lynch, Christopher; Walker, Elizabeth; Frith, Richard

    2015-08-07

    To estimate current and future specialist neurologist demand and supply to assist with health sector planning. Current demand for the neurology workforce in New Zealand was assessed using neuroepidemiological data. To assess current supply, all New Zealand neurology departments were surveyed to determine current workforce and estimate average neurologist productivity. Projections were made based on current neurologists anticipated retirement rates and addition of new neurologists based on current training positions. We explored several models to address the supply-demand gap. The current supply of neurologists in New Zealand is 36 full-time equivalents (FTE), insufficient to meet current demand of 74 FTE. Demand will grow over time and if status quo is maintained the gap will widen. Pressures on healthcare dollars are ever increasing and we cannot expect to address the identified service gap by immediately doubling the number of neurologists. Instead we propose a 12-year strategic approach with investments to enhance service productivity, strengthen collaborative efforts between specialists and general service providers, moderately increase the number of neurologists and neurology training positions, and develop highly skilled non-specialists including trained.

  10. The Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Prices Relationship between Cotton Spot Market and Futures Market in Xinjiang

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    The thesis analyzes the causal relationship between the cotton spot,and the tendency and impact of prices of futures markets in Xinjiang by using ADF test,co-integration analysis,Granger causality test and other econometric methods in order to discuss the interacted relationship between futures market prices of cotton and spot market prices since the futures of cotton in Xinjiang go public.The results of empirical analysis show that the spot market prices of cotton and the futures market prices in Xinjiang fluctuate prominently in the short run and tend to counterpoise in the long run;the futures market of cotton plays the role of leading the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang,while the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang impacts little on the futures market prices.The corresponding countermeasures are put forward.The government should continuously perfect the construction of the futures market of cotton in Xinjiang,so as to exert the function of price discovery and the function of hedging,and promote the development of cotton industry in Xinjiang.

  11. Realisable scenarios for a future electricity supply based 100% on renewable energies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Czisch, G.; Giebel, G.

    2007-01-01

    In view of the resource and climate problems, it seems obvious that we must transform our energy system into one using only renewable energies. But questions arise how such a system should be structured, which techniques should be used and, of course, how costly it might be. These questions were the focus of a study which investigated the cost optimum of a future renewable electricity supply for Europe and its closer Asian and African neighbourhood. The resulting scenarios are based on a broad data basis of the electricity consumption and for renewable energies. A linear optimisation determines the best system configuration and temporal dispatch of all components. The outcome of the scenarios can be considered as being a scientific breakthrough since it proves that a totally renewable electricity supply is possible even with current technology and at the same time is affordable for our national economies. In the conservative base case scenario, wind power would dominate the production spread over the better wind areas within the whole supply area, connected with the demand centres via HVDC transmission. The transmission system, furthermore, powerfully integrates the existing storage hydropower to provide for backup co-equally assisted by biomass power and supported by solar thermal electricity. The main results of the different scenarios can be summarized as follows: 1) A totally renewable electricity supply for Europe and its neighbourhood is possible and affordable. 2) Electricity import from non-European neighbour countries can be a very valuable and substantial component of a future supply. 3) Smoothing effects by the use of sources at locations in different climate zones improve the security of the supply and reduce the costs. 4) A large-scale co-operation of many different countries opens up for the possibility to combine the goals of development policy and climate politics in a multilateral win-win strategy. To aid implementation, an international extension

  12. The investor behavior and futures market volatility A theory and empirical study based on the OLG model and high-frequency data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yun Wang; Renhai Hua; Zongcheng Zhang

    2011-01-01

    Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the futures volatility could attect the investor behavior and what trading strategy different investors could adopt when they meet different information conditions.Design/methodology/approach-This study introduces a two-period overlapping generation model (OLG) model into the future market and set the investor behavior model based on the future contract price,which can also be extended to complete and incomplete information.It provides the equilibrium solution and uses cuprum tick data in SHFE to conduct the empirical analysis.Findings-The two-period OLG model based on the future market is consistent with the practical situation;second,the sufficient information investors such as institutional adopt reversal trading patterns generally;last,the insufficient information investors such as individual investors adopt momentum trading patterns in general.Research limitations/implications-Investor trading behavior is always an important issue in the behavioral finance and market supervision,but the related research is scarce.Practical implications-The conclusion shows that the investors' behavior in Chinese future market is different from the Chinese stock market.Originality/value-This study empirically analyzes and verifies the different types of trading strategies investors could;investors such as institutional ones adopt reversal trading patterns generally;while investors such as individual investors adopt momentum trading patterns in general.

  13. Rediscovering Don Swanson: The Past, Present and Future of Literature-based Discovery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil R. Smalheiser

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The late Don R. Swanson was well appreciated during his lifetime as Dean of the Graduate Library School at University of Chicago, as winner of the American Society for Information Science Award of Merit for 2000, and as author of many seminal articles. In this informal essay, I will give my personal perspective on Don’s contributions to science, and outline some current and future directions in literature-based discovery that are rooted in concepts that he developed. Design/methodology/approach: Personal recollections and literature review. Findings: The Swanson A-B-C model of literature-based discovery has been successfully used by laboratory investigators analyzing their findings and hypotheses. It continues to be a fertile area of research in a wide range of application areas including text mining, drug repurposing, studies of scientific innovation, knowledge discovery in databases, and bioinformatics. Recently, additional modes of discovery that do not follow the A-B-C model have also been proposed and explored (e.g. so-called storytelling, gaps, analogies, link prediction, negative consensus, outliers, and revival of neglected or discarded research questions. Research limitations: This paper reflects the opinions of the author and is not a comprehensive nor technically based review of literature-based discovery. Practical implications: The general scientific public is still not aware of the availability of tools for literature-based discovery. Our Arrowsmith project site maintains a suite of discovery tools that are free and open to the public (http://arrowsmith.psych.uic.edu, as does BITOLA which is maintained by Dmitar Hristovski (http:// http://ibmi.mf.uni-lj.si/bitola, and Epiphanet which is maintained by Trevor Cohen (http://epiphanet.uth.tmc.edu/. Bringing user-friendly tools to the public should be a high priority, since even more than advancing basic research in informatics, it is vital that we ensure that scientists

  14. School-Based Mental Health Programs in the United States: Present Status and a Blueprint for the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeiffer, Steven I.; Reddy, Linda A.

    1998-01-01

    Provides overview of sociocultural and political factors in the United States that have influenced recent interest in school-based health and mental health programs. Describes four well-known programs and presents a new framework, the Tripartite Model of School-Based Mental Health Interventions, to stimulate thinking on future programs. Addresses…

  15. Machine-Learning-Based Future Received Signal Strength Prediction Using Depth Images for mmWave Communications

    OpenAIRE

    Okamoto, Hironao; Nishio, Takayuki; Nakashima, Kota; Koda, Yusuke; Yamamoto, Koji; Morikura, Masahiro; Asai, Yusuke; Miyatake, Ryo

    2018-01-01

    This paper discusses a machine-learning (ML)-based future received signal strength (RSS) prediction scheme using depth camera images for millimeter-wave (mmWave) networks. The scheme provides the future RSS prediction of any mmWave links within the camera's view, including links where nodes are not transmitting frames. This enables network controllers to conduct network operations before line-of-sight path blockages degrade the RSS. Using the ML techniques, the prediction scheme automatically...

  16. SOAP based web services and their future role in VO projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topf, F.; Jacquey, C.; Génot, V.; Cecconi, B.; André, N.; Zhang, T. L.; Kallio, E.; Lammer, H.; Facsko, G.; Stöckler, R.; Khodachenko, M.

    2011-10-01

    Modern state-of-the-art web services are from crucial importance for the interoperability of different VO tools existing in the planetary community. SOAP based web services assure the interconnectability between different data sources and tools by providing a common protocol for communication. This paper will point out a best practice approach with the Automated Multi-Dataset Analysis Tool (AMDA) developed by CDPP, Toulouse and the provision of VEX/MAG data from a remote database located at IWF, Graz. Furthermore a new FP7 project IMPEx will be introduced with a potential usage example of AMDA web services in conjunction with simulation models.

  17. Assessing surface water flood risk and management strategies under future climate change: Insights from an Agent-Based Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, K; Surminski, S; Hall, J; Crick, F

    2017-10-01

    Climate change and increasing urbanization are projected to result in an increase in surface water flooding and consequential damages in the future. In this paper, we present insights from a novel Agent Based Model (ABM), applied to a London case study of surface water flood risk, designed to assess the interplay between different adaptation options; how risk reduction could be achieved by homeowners and government; and the role of flood insurance and the new flood insurance pool, Flood Re, in the context of climate change. The analysis highlights that while combined investment in property-level flood protection and sustainable urban drainage systems reduce surface water flood risk, the benefits can be outweighed by continued development in high risk areas and the effects of climate change. In our simulations, Flood Re is beneficial in its function to provide affordable insurance, even under climate change. However, the scheme does face increasing financial pressure due to rising surface water flood damages. If the intended transition to risk-based pricing is to take place then a determined and coordinated strategy will be needed to manage flood risk, which utilises insurance incentives, limits new development, and supports resilience measures. Our modelling approach and findings are highly relevant for the ongoing regulatory and political approval process for Flood Re as well as for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes to incentivise flood risk management and climate adaptation in the UK and internationally. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Future of an “Asymptomatic” T-cell Epitope-Based Therapeutic Herpes Simplex Vaccine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dervillez, Xavier; Gottimukkala, Chetan; Kabbara, Khaled W.; Nguyen, Chelsea; Badakhshan, Tina; Kim, Sarah M.; Nesburn, Anthony B.; Wechsler, Steven L.; BenMohamed, Lbachir

    2012-01-01

    Summary Considering the limited success of the recent herpes clinical vaccine trial [1], new vaccine strategies are needed. Infections with herpes simplex virus type 1 and type 2 (HSV-1 & HSV-2) in the majority of men and women are usually asymptomatic and results in lifelong viral latency in neurons of sensory ganglia (SG). However, in a minority of men and women HSV spontaneous reactivation can cause recurrent disease (i.e., symptomatic individuals). Our recent findings show that T cells from symptomatic and asymptomatic men and women (i.e. those with and without recurrences, respectively) recognize different herpes epitopes. This finding breaks new ground and opens new doors to assess a new vaccine strategy: mucosal immunization with HSV-1 & HSV-2 epitopes that induce strong in vitro CD4 and CD8 T cell responses from PBMC derived from asymptomatic men and women (designated here as “asymptomatic” protective epitopes”) could boost local and systemic “natural” protective immunity, induced by wild-type infection. Here we highlight the rationale and the future of our emerging “asymptomatic” T cell epitope-based mucosal vaccine strategy to decrease recurrent herpetic disease. PMID:22701511

  19. Nuclear magnetic resonance based metabolomics and liver diseases: Recent advances and future clinical applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amathieu, Roland; Triba, Mohamed Nawfal; Goossens, Corentine; Bouchemal, Nadia; Nahon, Pierre; Savarin, Philippe; Le Moyec, Laurence

    2016-01-07

    Metabolomics is defined as the quantitative measurement of the dynamic multiparametric metabolic response of living systems to pathophysiological stimuli or genetic modification. It is an "omics" technique that is situated downstream of genomics, transcriptomics and proteomics. Metabolomics is recognized as a promising technique in the field of systems biology for the evaluation of global metabolic changes. During the last decade, metabolomics approaches have become widely used in the study of liver diseases for the detection of early biomarkers and altered metabolic pathways. It is a powerful technique to improve our pathophysiological knowledge of various liver diseases. It can be a useful tool to help clinicians in the diagnostic process especially to distinguish malignant and non-malignant liver disease as well as to determine the etiology or severity of the liver disease. It can also assess therapeutic response or predict drug induced liver injury. Nevertheless, the usefulness of metabolomics is often not understood by clinicians, especially the concept of metabolomics profiling or fingerprinting. In the present work, after a concise description of the different techniques and processes used in metabolomics, we will review the main research on this subject by focusing specifically on in vitro proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy based metabolomics approaches in human studies. We will first consider the clinical point of view enlighten physicians on this new approach and emphasis its future use in clinical "routine".

  20. Historic Frontier Processes active in Future Space-Based Mineral Extraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, D. M.

    2000-01-01

    The forces that shaped historic mining frontiers are in many cases not bound by geographic or temporal limits. The forces that helped define historic frontiers are active in today's physical and virtual frontiers, and will be present in future space-based frontiers. While frontiers derived from position and technology are primarily economic in nature, non-economic conditions affect the success or failure of individual frontier endeavors, local "mining camps" and even entire frontiers. Frontiers can be defined as the line of activity that divides the established markets and infrastructure of civilization from the unclaimed resources and potential wealth of a wilderness. At the frontier line, ownership of resources is established. The resource can then be developed using capital, energy and information. In a mining setting, the resource is concentrated for economic shipment to the markets of civilization. Profits from the sale of the resource are then used to fund further development of the resource and/or pay investors. Both positional and technical frontiers develop as a series of generations. The profits from each generation of development provides the capital and/or investment incentive for the next round of development. Without profit, the self-replicating process of frontiers stops.

  1. Future malaria spatial pattern based on the potential global warming impact in South and Southeast Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan M. Khormi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-H climate model with the A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100 and CLIMEX software for projections to illustrate the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distributions of malaria in China, India, Indochina, Indonesia, and The Philippines based on climate variables such as temperature, moisture, heat, cold and dryness. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records. The areas in which malaria has currently been detected are consistent with those showing high values of the ecoclimatic index in the CLIMEX model. The match between prediction and reality was found to be high. More than 90% of the observed malaria distribution points were associated with the currently known suitable climate conditions. Climate suitability for malaria is projected to decrease in India, southern Myanmar, southern Thailand, eastern Borneo, and the region bordering Cambodia, Malaysia and the Indonesian islands, while it is expected to increase in southern and south-eastern China and Taiwan. The climatic models for Anopheles mosquitoes presented here should be useful for malaria control, monitoring, and management, particularly considering these future climate scenarios.

  2. Capital planning for operating theatres based on projecting future theatre requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehan, Jennifer A; Tyler, Peter; Jayasinha, Hirani; Meleady, Kathleen T; Jones, Neill

    2011-05-01

    During 2006, NSW and ACT Health Departments jointly engaged KPMG to develop an Operating Theatre Requirements' Projection Model and an accompanying planning guideline. A research scan was carried out to identify drivers of surgical demand, theatre capacity and theatre performance, as well as locating existing approaches to modelling operating theatre requirements for planning purposes. The project delivered a Microsoft Excel-based model for projecting future operating theatre requirements, together with an accompanying guideline for use of the model and interpretation of its outputs. It provides a valuable addition to the suite of tools available to Health staff for service and capital planning. The model operates with several limitations, largely due to being data dependent, and the state and completeness of available theatre activity data. However, the operational flexibility built into the model allows users to compensate for these limitations, on a case by case basis, when the user has access to suitable, local data. The design flexibility of the model means that updating the model as improved data become available is not difficult; resulting in revisions being able to be made quickly, and disseminated to users rapidly.

  3. A comprehensive review on droplet-based bioprinting: Past, present and future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudapati, Hemanth; Dey, Madhuri; Ozbolat, Ibrahim

    2016-09-01

    Droplet-based bioprinting (DBB) offers greater advantages due to its simplicity and agility with precise control on deposition of biologics including cells, growth factors, genes, drugs and biomaterials, and has been a prominent technology in the bioprinting community. Due to its immense versatility, DBB technology has been adopted by various application areas, including but not limited to, tissue engineering and regenerative medicine, transplantation and clinics, pharmaceutics and high-throughput screening, and cancer research. Despite the great benefits, the technology currently faces several challenges such as a narrow range of available bioink materials, bioprinting-induced cell damage at substantial levels, limited mechanical and structural integrity of bioprinted constructs, and restrictions on the size of constructs due to lack of vascularization and porosity. This paper presents a first-time review of DBB and comprehensively covers the existing DBB modalities including inkjet, electrohydrodynamic, acoustic, and micro-valve bioprinting. The recent notable studies are highlighted, the relevant bioink biomaterials and bioprinters are expounded, the application areas are presented, and the future prospects are provided to the reader. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Future malaria spatial pattern based on the potential global warming impact in South and Southeast Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khormi, Hassan M; Kumar, Lalit

    2016-11-21

    We used the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-H climate model with the A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100 and CLIMEX software for projections to illustrate the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distributions of malaria in China, India, Indochina, Indonesia, and The Philippines based on climate variables such as temperature, moisture, heat, cold and dryness. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records. The areas in which malaria has currently been detected are consistent with those showing high values of the ecoclimatic index in the CLIMEX model. The match between prediction and reality was found to be high. More than 90% of the observed malaria distribution points were associated with the currently known suitable climate conditions. Climate suitability for malaria is projected to decrease in India, southern Myanmar, southern Thailand, eastern Borneo, and the region bordering Cambodia, Malaysia and the Indonesian islands, while it is expected to increase in southern and south-eastern China and Taiwan. The climatic models for Anopheles mosquitoes presented here should be useful for malaria control, monitoring, and management, particularly considering these future climate scenarios.

  5. Using Agent-Based Models to Develop Public Policy about Food Behaviours: Future Directions and Recommendations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe J. Giabbanelli

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Most adults are overweight or obese in many western countries. Several population-level interventions on the physical, economical, political, or sociocultural environment have thus attempted to achieve a healthier weight. These interventions have involved different weight-related behaviours, such as food behaviours. Agent-based models (ABMs have the potential to help policymakers evaluate food behaviour interventions from a systems perspective. However, fully realizing this potential involves a complex procedure starting with obtaining and analyzing data to populate the model and eventually identifying more efficient cross-sectoral policies. Current procedures for ABMs of food behaviours are mostly rooted in one technique, often ignore the food environment beyond home and work, and underutilize rich datasets. In this paper, we address some of these limitations to better support policymakers through two contributions. First, via a scoping review, we highlight readily available datasets and techniques to deal with these limitations independently. Second, we propose a three steps’ process to tackle all limitations together and discuss its use to develop future models for food behaviours. We acknowledge that this integrated process is a leap forward in ABMs. However, this long-term objective is well-worth addressing as it can generate robust findings to effectively inform the design of food behaviour interventions.

  6. Accounting for the drug life cycle and future drug prices in cost-effectiveness analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoyle, Martin

    2011-01-01

    Economic evaluations of health technologies typically assume constant real drug prices and model only the cohort of patients currently eligible for treatment. It has recently been suggested that, in the UK, we should assume that real drug prices decrease at 4% per annum and, in New Zealand, that real drug prices decrease at 2% per annum and at patent expiry the drug price falls. It has also recently been suggested that we should model multiple future incident cohorts. In this article, the cost effectiveness of drugs is modelled based on these ideas. Algebraic expressions are developed to capture all costs and benefits over the entire life cycle of a new drug. The lifetime of a new drug in the UK, a key model parameter, is estimated as 33 years, based on the historical lifetime of drugs in England over the last 27 years. Under the proposed methodology, cost effectiveness is calculated for seven new drugs recently appraised in the UK. Cost effectiveness as assessed in the future is also estimated. Whilst the article is framed in mathematics, the findings and recommendations are also explained in non-mathematical language. The 'life-cycle correction factor' is introduced, which is used to convert estimates of cost effectiveness as traditionally calculated into estimates under the proposed methodology. Under the proposed methodology, all seven drugs appear far more cost effective in the UK than published. For example, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio decreases by 46%, from £61, 900 to £33, 500 per QALY, for cinacalcet versus best supportive care for end-stage renal disease, and by 45%, from £31,100 to £17,000 per QALY, for imatinib versus interferon-α for chronic myeloid leukaemia. Assuming real drug prices decrease over time, the chance that a drug is publicly funded increases over time, and is greater when modelling multiple cohorts than with a single cohort. Using the methodology (compared with traditional methodology) all drugs in the UK and New

  7. Present state of condition based maintenance (CBM) and its future problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hashimoto, Satoshi; Nogami, Takeki; Sugiyama, Naoki

    2008-01-01

    New inspection system of the nuclear power plant will be introduced from 2008. In this feature, eleven experts from electric utilities, venders and academia described their views or activities about Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) with a new inspection system attracting attention. These are titled as 'Electric utilities view on CBM and its technology', Deployment results of developed CBM technologies', 'Valve diagnostic analysis support system with wireless technology applied', 'Portable vibration checker', 'Tribology diagnosis with no overhaul', 'Infrared thermograph diagnosis', 'Pipewall thinning inspection and management' and, in addition, the US trend and also the development trend of the CBM advancement technology in the vender and university. CBM technology will be introduced step-by-step and contribute to establish reliability based maintenance. (T. Tanaka)

  8. Chip based electroanalytical systems for cell analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spegel, C.; Heiskanen, A.; Skjolding, L.H.D.

    2008-01-01

    ' measurements of processes related to living cells, i.e., systems without lysing the cells. The focus is on chip based amperometric and impedimetric cell analysis systems where measurements utilizing solely carbon fiber microelectrodes (CFME) and other nonchip electrode formats, such as CFME for exocytosis...

  9. Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

    2015-11-01

    Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Substance abuse and psychosocial adaptation to physical disability: analysis of the literature and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smedema, Susan Miller; Ebener, Deborah

    2010-01-01

    To analyse the current state of the literature with respect to substance abuse and psychosocial adjustment in persons with disabilities. The two primary databases containing the literature related to rehabilitation and disability issues (PsychINFO and MedLine) were searched to identify articles addressing the psychosocial impact of substance abuse in persons with disabilities. Eleven empirical articles specifically measuring the strength of the relationship between substance use and psychosocial outcomes in persons with disabilities were selected for analysis. Of the studies identified, five were related to spinal cord injury, three were related to traumatic brain injury, one was related to chronic back pain, one was related to HIV/AIDS, and one was related to persons with any type of disability. Each of the studies used different methodologies, measured substance abuse in different ways, and examined different psychosocial outcome variables. Examination of trends suggested that pre-injury substance abuse appears to be unrelated to acceptance of disability in persons with spinal cord injury and negatively associated with satisfaction in persons with traumatic brain injury. Recent substance abuse tends to have a detrimental effect on psychosocial outcomes across all disability groups. Future research, combined with appropriate pre-service and continuing education related to substance abuse and disability for rehabilitation practitioners, has the potential to lead to improved psychosocial outcomes in persons with disabilities.

  11. MULTICRITERIA HYBRID FLOW SHOP SCHEDULING PROBLEM: LITERATURE REVIEW, ANALYSIS, AND FUTURE RESEARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcia de Fatima Morais

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This research focuses on the Hybrid Flow Shop production scheduling problem, which is one of the most difficult problems to solve. The literature points to several studies that focus the Hybrid Flow Shop scheduling problem with monocriteria functions. Despite of the fact that, many real world problems involve several objective functions, they can often compete and conflict, leading researchers to concentrate direct their efforts on the development of methods that take consider this variant into consideration. The goal of the study is to review and analyze the methods in order to solve the Hybrid Flow Shop production scheduling problem with multicriteria functions in the literature. The analyses were performed using several papers that have been published over the years, also the parallel machines types, the approach used to develop solution methods, the type of method develop, the objective function, the performance criterion adopted, and the additional constraints considered. The results of the reviewing and analysis of 46 papers showed opportunities for future research on this topic, including the following: (i use uniform and dedicated parallel machines, (ii use exact and metaheuristics approaches, (iv develop lower and uppers bounds, relations of dominance and different search strategies to improve the computational time of the exact methods,  (v develop  other types of metaheuristic, (vi work with anticipatory setups, and (vii add constraints faced by the production systems itself.

  12. Analysis of the Economic Potential for a Mercosur Rice Futures Market

    OpenAIRE

    Waldemar Antonio da Rocha de Souza; João Gomes Martines-Filho; Claudio Zancan; Antonio Carlos Silva Costa; Andreza Galindo Alves de Queiróz

    2015-01-01

    World rice production reached 488.4 thousand tons, in 2012. Asian countries are the world’s largest rice producers, followed by Latinamerica, particularly Brazil, where rice is a basic food item. In spite of the clear economic benefits bestowed by commodity futures markets, neither Asia nor Mercosur have implemented a regional rice futures market. In sum, we propose to investigate the feasibility of a Brazilian rice futures contract to serve the Mercosur region by estimating Me...

  13. Biomaterials based strategies for skeletal muscle tissue engineering: existing technologies and future trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qazi, Taimoor H; Mooney, David J; Pumberger, Matthias; Geissler, Sven; Duda, Georg N

    2015-01-01

    Skeletal muscles have a robust capacity to regenerate, but under compromised conditions, such as severe trauma, the loss of muscle functionality is inevitable. Research carried out in the field of skeletal muscle tissue engineering has elucidated multiple intrinsic mechanisms of skeletal muscle repair, and has thus sought to identify various types of cells and bioactive factors which play an important role during regeneration. In order to maximize the potential therapeutic effects of cells and growth factors, several biomaterial based strategies have been developed and successfully implemented in animal muscle injury models. A suitable biomaterial can be utilized as a template to guide tissue reorganization, as a matrix that provides optimum micro-environmental conditions to cells, as a delivery vehicle to carry bioactive factors which can be released in a controlled manner, and as local niches to orchestrate in situ tissue regeneration. A myriad of biomaterials, varying in geometrical structure, physical form, chemical properties, and biofunctionality have been investigated for skeletal muscle tissue engineering applications. In the current review, we present a detailed summary of studies where the use of biomaterials favorably influenced muscle repair. Biomaterials in the form of porous three-dimensional scaffolds, hydrogels, fibrous meshes, and patterned substrates with defined topographies, have each displayed unique benefits, and are discussed herein. Additionally, several biomaterial based approaches aimed specifically at stimulating vascularization, innervation, and inducing contractility in regenerating muscle tissues are also discussed. Finally, we outline promising future trends in the field of muscle regeneration involving a deeper understanding of the endogenous healing cascades and utilization of this knowledge for the development of multifunctional, hybrid, biomaterials which support and enable muscle regeneration under compromised conditions

  14. Atomic scale engineering of HfO2-based dielectrics for future DRAM applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dudek, Piotr

    2011-01-01

    Modern dielectrics in combination with appropriate metal electrodes have a great potential to solve many difficulties associated with continuing miniaturization process in the microelectronic industry. One significant branch of microelectronics incorporates dynamic random access memory (DRAM) market. The DRAM devices scaled for over 35 years starting from 4 kb density to several Gb nowadays. The scaling process led to the dielectric material thickness reduction, resulting in higher leakage current density, and as a consequence higher power consumption. As a possible solution for this problem, alternative dielectric materials with improved electrical and material science parameters were intensively studied by many research groups. The higher dielectric constant allows the use of physically thicker layers with high capacitance but strongly reduced leakage current density. This work focused on deposition and characterization of thin insulating layers. The material engineering process was based on Si cleanroom compatible HfO 2 thin films deposited on TiN metal electrodes. A combined materials science and dielectric characterization study showed that Ba-added HfO 2 (BaHfO 3 ) films and Ti-added BaHfO 3 (BaHf 0.5 Ti 0.5 O 3 ) layers are promising candidates for future generation of state-of-the-art DRAMs. In especial a strong increase of the dielectric permittivity k was achieved for thin films of cubic BaHfO 3 (k∝38) and BaHf 0.5 Ti 0.5 O 3 (k∝90) with respect to monoclinic HfO 2 (k∝19). Meanwhile the CET values scaled down to 1 nm for BaHfO 3 and ∝0.8 nm for BaHf 0.5 Ti 0.5 O 3 with respect to HfO 2 (CET=1.5 nm). The Hf 4+ ions substitution in BaHfO 3 by Ti 4+ ions led to a significant decrease of thermal budget from 900 C for BaHfO 3 to 700 C for BaHf 0.5 Ti 0.5 O 3 . Future studies need to focus on the use of appropriate metal electrodes (high work function) and on film deposition process (homogeneity) for better current leakage control. (orig.)

  15. Making decisions based on an imperfect ensemble of climate simulators: strategies and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, B. M.

    2017-12-01

    The CMIP ensembles represent the most comprehensive source of information available to decision-makers for climate adaptation, yet it is clear that there are fundamental limitations in our ability to treat the ensemble as an unbiased sample of possible future climate trajectories. There is considerable evidence that models are not independent, and increasing complexity and resolution combined with computational constraints prevent a thorough exploration of parametric uncertainty or internal variability. Although more data than ever is available for calibration, the optimization of each model is influenced by institutional priorities, historical precedent and available resources. The resulting ensemble thus represents a miscellany of climate simulators which defy traditional statistical interpretation. Models are in some cases interdependent, but are sufficiently complex that the degree of interdependency is conditional on the application. Configurations have been updated using available observations to some degree, but not in a consistent or easily identifiable fashion. This means that the ensemble cannot be viewed as a true posterior distribution updated by available data, but nor can observational data alone be used to assess individual model likelihood. We assess recent literature for combining projections from an imperfect ensemble of climate simulators. Beginning with our published methodology for addressing model interdependency and skill in the weighting scheme for the 4th US National Climate Assessment, we consider strategies for incorporating process-based constraints on future response, perturbed parameter experiments and multi-model output into an integrated framework. We focus on a number of guiding questions: Is the traditional framework of confidence in projections inferred from model agreement leading to biased or misleading conclusions? Can the benefits of upweighting skillful models be reconciled with the increased risk of truth lying outside the

  16. Future temperature changes over the critical Belt and Road region based on CMIP5 models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tian-Yun Dong

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Based on data of 22 models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5, the performance of climate simulation is assessed and future changes under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are projected over critical Belt and Road region. Compared with observations, the CMIP5 models simulate the linear trend and spatial distribution of the annual mean surface air temperature (SAT better in the north (NBR and south (SBR of the Belt and Road region. The trend of the 22-model ensemble mean (CMIP5 MME is 0.70/0.50 °C per 100 years from 1901 to 2005, and the observed trend is 1.11/0.77 °C per 100 years in the NBR/SBR region. After 1971, the relative error between CMIP5 MME and observations is 22%/15% in the NBR/SBR region. Seven/nine models are selected in the NBR/SBR to project future SAT changes under three RCP scenarios. For 2081–2100, warming in the NBR/SBR is projected to be (1.16 ± 0.29/(0.72 ± 0.32 °C, (2.41 ± 0.54/(1.55 ± 0.44 °C, and (5.23 ± 1.02/(3.33 ± 0.65 °C for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. Under the RCP scenarios, the NBR region shows greater warming than the SBR region. The most significant warming is expected in Kazakhstan and the northern part of the SBR. The associated uncertainty generally increases with time under the three RCP scenarios. Furthermore, increases in warming over the Belt and Road region are more remarkable under higher-emission scenarios than lower-emission ones. Keywords: CMIP5 models, The Belt and Road region, Temperature projection, RCPs

  17. Atomic scale engineering of HfO{sub 2}-based dielectrics for future DRAM applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dudek, Piotr

    2011-02-14

    Modern dielectrics in combination with appropriate metal electrodes have a great potential to solve many difficulties associated with continuing miniaturization process in the microelectronic industry. One significant branch of microelectronics incorporates dynamic random access memory (DRAM) market. The DRAM devices scaled for over 35 years starting from 4 kb density to several Gb nowadays. The scaling process led to the dielectric material thickness reduction, resulting in higher leakage current density, and as a consequence higher power consumption. As a possible solution for this problem, alternative dielectric materials with improved electrical and material science parameters were intensively studied by many research groups. The higher dielectric constant allows the use of physically thicker layers with high capacitance but strongly reduced leakage current density. This work focused on deposition and characterization of thin insulating layers. The material engineering process was based on Si cleanroom compatible HfO{sub 2} thin films deposited on TiN metal electrodes. A combined materials science and dielectric characterization study showed that Ba-added HfO{sub 2} (BaHfO{sub 3}) films and Ti-added BaHfO{sub 3} (BaHf{sub 0.5}Ti{sub 0.5}O{sub 3}) layers are promising candidates for future generation of state-of-the-art DRAMs. In especial a strong increase of the dielectric permittivity k was achieved for thin films of cubic BaHfO{sub 3} (k{proportional_to}38) and BaHf{sub 0.5}Ti{sub 0.5}O{sub 3} (k{proportional_to}90) with respect to monoclinic HfO{sub 2} (k{proportional_to}19). Meanwhile the CET values scaled down to 1 nm for BaHfO{sub 3} and {proportional_to}0.8 nm for BaHf{sub 0.5}Ti{sub 0.5}O{sub 3} with respect to HfO{sub 2} (CET=1.5 nm). The Hf{sup 4+} ions substitution in BaHfO{sub 3} by Ti{sup 4+} ions led to a significant decrease of thermal budget from 900 C for BaHfO{sub 3} to 700 C for BaHf{sub 0.5}Ti{sub 0.5}O{sub 3}. Future studies need to focus

  18. A Comparative Analysis of User Preferences for for Major Internet Based Education Media in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Chunyang; Jiang, Yanqing

    2014-01-01

    Internet based education media are developing at an amazing rate and being seen as an upstart that will likely take the place of traditional education means worldwide in the future. This paper presents the results of a comparative analysis on user preferences for four major categories of internet-based media used in China. In this paper, we first…

  19. Korean national QPE technique development: Analysis of current QPE results and future plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cha, Joo Wan

    2013-04-01

    Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) has developed a Real-time ADjusted Radar-AWS (Automatic Weather Station) Rainrate (RAD-RAR) system using eleven radars over the South Korea. The procedure of the RAD-RAR system in real time consists of four steps: 1) the quality control of volumetric reflectivity for each radar, 2) the computation of the every 10-min rain gauge rainfall within each radar, 3) the real time (10 min-updated) rainfall estimation by the Z-R relationship minimizing the difference between the 1.5-km constant altitude plan precipitation indicator and rain gauge rainfall based on Window Probability Matching Method(WPMM) and by the real-time bias correction of RAD-RAR conducted at every 10 minutes for each radar by making the bias, and 4) the composition of the 11-radar estimated rainfall data. In addition, a local gauge correction method applies for RAD-RAR system. Therefore, the correlation coefficient of R2 = 0.81 is obtained between the daily accumulated observed and RAD-RAR estimated rainfall in 2012. We like to develop a new QPE system using the multi-sensor(radar, rain gauge, numerical model output, and lightning) data for newly improving Korean national QPE system. We made the prototype QPE system in 2012 and improve the detail techniques now. In the future, the new high performance QPE system will include a dual polarization radar observation technique for providing more accurate and valuable national QPE data

  20. The future of nuclear power in France. An analysis of the costs of phasing-out

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malischek, Raimund; Trueby, Johannes

    2014-01-01

    Nuclear power is an important pillar in electricity generation in France. However, France's nuclear power plant fleet is ageing, and the possibility of reducing its share in power generation or even a complete phaseout has been increasingly discussed. Our research therefore focuses on three questions: First, what are the costs of phasing-out nuclear power in France under different scenarios? Second, who has to bear these costs, i.e., how much of the costs will be passed on to the rest of the European power system? And third, what effect does the uncertainty regarding future nuclear policy in France have on system costs? Applying a stochastic optimization model for the European electricity system, we show that additional system costs in France of a nuclear phase-out amount up to 76 billion EURO 2010 . Additional costs are mostly borne by the French power system. Surprisingly, we find that the costs of uncertainty are rather limited. Based on our results, we conclude that a commitment regarding nuclear policy reform is only mildly beneficial in terms of system costs.

  1. Combining soundscape analysis with in situ observations and oceanographic data for future ecosystem evaluation techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, S. E.; Freeman, L. A.

    2016-02-01

    Coral reef ecosystems face many anthropogenic threats. There are urgent requirements for improved monitoring and management. Conventional assessment methods using SCUBA are costly and prone to bias and under-sampling. Here, three approaches to understanding coral reef ecology are combined to aid the goal of enhanced passive monitoring in the future: statistical analysis of oceanographic habitats, remote cameras for nocturnal surveys of benthic fauna, and soundscape analysis in the context of oceanographic setting and ecological metrics collected in-situ. Hawaiian reefs from Kure Atoll to the island of Hawaii, an area spanning two oceanographic habitats, are assessed. Multivariate analysis of acoustic, remote camera, and in-situ observational data showed significant differences in more than 20 percent of ecological and acoustic variables when grouped by oceanic regime, suggesting that large-scale oceanography substantially influences local ecological states and associated soundscapes. Acoustic variables further delineated sites by island, suggesting local conditions influence the soundscape to a greater degree. While the number of invertebrates (with an emphasis on crustaceans and echinoderms) imaged using remote cameras correlated with a number of acoustic metrics, an increasingly higher correlation between invertebrate density and spectral level was observed as acoustic bands increased in frequency from 2 to 20 kHz. In turn, correlation was also observed between the number of predatory fish and sound levels above 2 kHz, suggesting a connection between the number of invertebrates, sound levels at higher frequencies, and the presence of their predators. Comparisons between sound recordings and diversity indices calculated from observational and remote camera data indicate that greater diversity in fishes and benthic invertebrates is associated with a larger change in sound levels between day and night. Interdisciplinary analyses provide a novel view to underwater

  2. Maladaptive Perfectionism and Ineffective Coping as Mediators between Attachment and Future Depression: A Prospective Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Meifen; Heppner, P. Paul; Russell, Daniel W.; Young, Shannon K.

    2006-01-01

    This study used a longitudinal design to examine whether maladaptive perfectionism and ineffective coping served as 2 mediators of the relation between adult attachment and future depression. Data were collected from 372 undergraduates at 2 time points. Results indicated that (a) the impact of attachment on future depression was mediated through…

  3. An Analysis of the Future Need for Certified Animal Health Technicians and Instructional Program Content.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevada State Council on Occupational Education, Carson City.

    A study examined the future need for certified animal health technicians (CAHT) in Nevada and the skills/knowledge that future CAHTs will need. Questionnaires were mailed to all of Nevada's 306 licensed veterinarians; 100 (32.68%) responded. The estimated numbers of CAHTs needed by the state's veterinarians in 1, 3, and 5 years were 62, 142, and…

  4. A High Resolution Technology-based Emissions Inventory for Nepal: Present and Future Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadavarte, P.; Das, B.; Rupakheti, M.; Byanju, R.; Bhave, P.

    2016-12-01

    understand impacts of air pollution on health and climate in Kathmandu Valley and Nepal. Future emissions are being developed based on different possible growth scenarios and policy interventions to mitigate emissions.

  5. Comparative Analysis of Discovery Function of Cotton Future Price among Different Regions——A Case Study of Xinjiang

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Through comparative analysis, We research the relationship between cotton future price and cotton spot price in different regions, in order to formulate corresponding strategies in different regions under the new situation. We use ADF unit root test, E-G two-step cointegration test, Granger causality test, and other research methods in Eviews 5.0 statistical software, to empirically study the relationship between the cotton future price and cotton spot price in Xinjiang, the relationship between the cotton future price and cotton spot price in China. The results show that there is a long-term relationship between the cotton future price and cotton spot price in Xinjiang, between the cotton future price and cotton spot price in China; the cotton future price plays unidirectional role in guiding cotton spot price in Xinjiang and cotton spot price in China. The discovery function of cotton future price plays much greater role in the cotton market of China than in the cotton market of Xinjiang.

  6. Future Costs, Fixed Healthcare Budgets, and the Decision Rules of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Baal, Pieter; Meltzer, David; Brouwer, Werner

    2016-02-01

    Life-saving medical technologies result in additional demand for health care due to increased life expectancy. However, most economic evaluations do not include all medical costs that may result from this additional demand in health care and include only future costs of related illnesses. Although there has been much debate regarding the question to which extent future costs should be included from a societal perspective, the appropriate role of future medical costs in the widely adopted but more narrow healthcare perspective has been neglected. Using a theoretical model, we demonstrate that optimal decision rules for cost-effectiveness analyses assuming fixed healthcare budgets dictate that future costs of both related and unrelated medical care should be included. Practical relevance of including the costs of future unrelated medical care is illustrated using the example of transcatheter aortic valve implantation. Our findings suggest that guidelines should prescribe inclusion of these costs. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. SPECULATIVE EFFICIENCY OF STOCK INDEX FUTURES MARKETS:AN ANALYSIS ON THE ASEAN MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Normas Awang

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The capital markets in emerging economies are undergoing rapid transformationdue to the advancement of technologicalinnovations and globalization of themarketplace. Thus, the risk managementmeasures are extremely importantthroughout the financial system. However,the scarcity of derivative instrumentssuch as futures and options in emergingmarkets, in addition to the failure togenerate liquidity, have made the emerging economies to be left behind in therecent development of the world capital markets. Whilethere are a great numberof earlier studies that analyse the efficiency of futures markets in differentcountries, there is a lack ofresearch that take intoaccount of the speculativeefficiency of futures markets which argues that futures prices are an unbiased forecast of the spot pricesas well as a crucial part offorecasting techniques. Thispaper aims to investigate the speculativeefficiency of stock index futures marketsin the ASEAN markets which comprises ofSingapore, Malaysia and Thailand byemploying an econometric time series dataanalysis ranging from January 2000 toDecember 2010.

  8. Current and future pluvial flood hazard analysis for the city of Antwerp

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Patrick; Tabari, Hossein; De Niel, Jan; Van Uytven, Els; Lambrechts, Griet; Wellens, Geert

    2016-04-01

    For the city of Antwerp in Belgium, higher rainfall extremes were observed in comparison with surrounding areas. The differences were found statistically significant for some areas and may be the result of the heat island effect in combination with the higher concentrations of aerosols. A network of 19 rain gauges but with varying records length (the longest since the 1960s) and continuous radar data for 10 years were combined to map the spatial variability of rainfall extremes over the city at various durations from 15 minutes to 1 day together with the uncertainty. The improved spatial rainfall information was used as input in the sewer system model of the city to analyze the frequency of urban pluvial floods. Comparison with historical flood observations from various sources (fire brigade and media) confirmed that the improved spatial rainfall information also improved sewer impact results on both the magnitude and frequency of the sewer floods. Next to these improved urban flood impact results for recent and current climatological conditions, the new insights on the local rainfall microclimate were also helpful to enhance future projections on rainfall extremes and pluvial floods in the city. This was done by improved statistical downscaling of all available CMIP5 global climate model runs (160 runs) for the 4 RCP scenarios, as well as the available EURO-CORDEX regional climate model runs. Two types of statistical downscaling methods were applied for that purpose (a weather typing based method, and a quantile perturbation approach), making use of the microclimate results and its dependency on specific weather types. Changes in extreme rainfall intensities were analyzed and mapped as a function of the RCP scenario, together with the uncertainty, decomposed in the uncertainties related to the climate models, the climate model initialization or limited length of the 30-year time series (natural climate variability) and the statistical downscaling (albeit limited

  9. Open access for ALICE analysis based on virtualization technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buncic, P; Gheata, M; Schutz, Y

    2015-01-01

    Open access is one of the important leverages for long-term data preservation for a HEP experiment. To guarantee the usability of data analysis tools beyond the experiment lifetime it is crucial that third party users from the scientific community have access to the data and associated software. The ALICE Collaboration has developed a layer of lightweight components built on top of virtualization technology to hide the complexity and details of the experiment-specific software. Users can perform basic analysis tasks within CernVM, a lightweight generic virtual machine, paired with an ALICE specific contextualization. Once the virtual machine is launched, a graphical user interface is automatically started without any additional configuration. This interface allows downloading the base ALICE analysis software and running a set of ALICE analysis modules. Currently the available tools include fully documented tutorials for ALICE analysis, such as the measurement of strange particle production or the nuclear modification factor in Pb-Pb collisions. The interface can be easily extended to include an arbitrary number of additional analysis modules. We present the current status of the tools used by ALICE through the CERN open access portal, and the plans for future extensions of this system. (paper)

  10. Network-based analysis of proteomic profiles

    KAUST Repository

    Wong, Limsoon

    2016-01-26

    Mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteomics is a widely used and powerful tool for profiling systems-wide protein expression changes. It can be applied for various purposes, e.g. biomarker discovery in diseases and study of drug responses. Although RNA-based high-throughput methods have been useful in providing glimpses into the underlying molecular processes, the evidences they provide are indirect. Furthermore, RNA and corresponding protein levels have been known to have poor correlation. On the other hand, MS-based proteomics tend to have consistency issues (poor reproducibility and inter-sample agreement) and coverage issues (inability to detect the entire proteome) that need to be urgently addressed. In this talk, I will discuss how these issues can be addressed by proteomic profile analysis techniques that use biological networks (especially protein complexes) as the biological context. In particular, I will describe several techniques that we have been developing for network-based analysis of proteomics profile. And I will present evidence that these techniques are useful in identifying proteomics-profile analysis results that are more consistent, more reproducible, and more biologically coherent, and that these techniques allow expansion of the detected proteome to uncover and/or discover novel proteins.

  11. Frailty as a Predictor of Future Falls Among Community-Dwelling Older People: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kojima, Gotaro

    2015-12-01

    Although multiple longitudinal studies have investigated frailty as a predictor of future falls, the results were mixed. Thus far, no systematic review or meta-analysis on this topic has been conducted. To review the evidence of frailty as a predictor of future falls among community-dwelling older people. Systematic review of literature and meta-analysis were performed using 6 electronic databases (Embase, Scopus, MEDLINE, CINAHL Plus, PsycINFO, and the Cochrane Library) searching for studies that prospectively examined risk of future fall risk according to frailty among community-dwelling older people published from 2010 to April 2015 with no language restrictions. Of 2245 studies identified through the systematic review, 11 studies incorporating 68,723 individuals were included in the meta-analysis. Among 7 studies reporting odds ratios (ORs), frailty and prefrailty were significantly associated with higher risk of future falls (pooled OR = 1.84, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 1.43-2.38, P dwelling older people despite various criteria used to define frailty. The future fall risk according to frailty seemed to be higher in men than in women. Copyright © 2015 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. [Theoretical and methodological bases for formation of future drivers 'readiness to application of physical-rehabilitation technologies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yemets, Anatoliy V; Donchenko, Viktoriya I; Scrinick, Eugenia O

    2018-01-01

    Introduction: Experimental work is aimed at introducing theoretical and methodological foundations for the professional training of the future doctor. The aim: Identify the dynamics of quantitative and qualitative indicators of the readiness of a specialist in medicine. Materials and methods: The article presents the course and results of the experimental work of the conditions of forming the readiness of future specialists in medicine. Results: Our methodical bases for studying the disciplines of the general practice and specialized professional stage of experimental training of future physicians have been worked out. Conclusions: It is developed taking into account the peculiarities of future physician training of materials for various stages of experimental implementation in the educational process of higher medical educational institutions.

  13. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  14. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)

    2015-01-22

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  15. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

  16. Regional impacts of climate change and atmospheric CO2 on future ocean carbon uptake: a multi model linear feedback analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, Tilla; Bopp, Laurent; Gehlen, Marion; Cadule, Patricia; Schneider, Birgit; Frolicher, Thomas L.; Segschneider, Joachim; Tjiputra, Jerry; Heinze, Christoph; Joos, Fortunat

    2011-01-01

    The increase in atmospheric CO 2 over this century depends on the evolution of the oceanic air-sea CO 2 uptake, which will be driven by the combined response to rising atmospheric CO 2 itself and climate change. Here, the future oceanic CO 2 uptake is simulated using an ensemble of coupled climate-carbon cycle models. The models are driven by CO 2 emissions from historical data and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 high-emission scenario. A linear feedback analysis successfully separates the regional future (2010-2100) oceanic CO 2 uptake into a CO 2 -induced component, due to rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, and a climate-induced component, due to global warming. The models capture the observation based magnitude and distribution of anthropogenic CO 2 uptake. The distributions of the climate-induced component are broadly consistent between the models, with reduced CO 2 uptake in the sub polar Southern Ocean and the equatorial regions, owing to decreased CO 2 solubility; and reduced CO 2 uptake in the mid-latitudes, owing to decreased CO 2 solubility and increased vertical stratification. The magnitude of the climate-induced component is sensitive to local warming in the southern extra-tropics, to large freshwater fluxes in the extra-tropical North Atlantic Ocean, and to small changes in the CO 2 solubility in the equatorial regions. In key anthropogenic CO 2 uptake regions, the climate-induced component offsets the CO 2 - induced component at a constant proportion up until the end of this century. This amounts to approximately 50% in the northern extra-tropics and 25% in the southern extra-tropics and equatorial regions. Consequently, the detection of climate change impacts on anthropogenic CO 2 uptake may be difficult without monitoring additional tracers, such as oxygen. (authors)

  17. Regional impacts of climate change and atmospheric CO2 on future ocean carbon uptake: a multi model linear feedback analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, Tilla; Bopp, Laurent; Gehlen, Marion; Cadule, Patricia

    2011-01-01

    The increase in atmospheric CO 2 over this century depends on the evolution of the oceanic air-sea CO 2 uptake, which will be driven by the combined response to rising atmospheric CO 2 itself and climate change. Here, the future oceanic CO 2 uptake is simulated using an ensemble of coupled climate-carbon cycle models. The models are driven by CO 2 emissions from historical data and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 high-emission scenario. A linear feedback analysis successfully separates the regional future (2010-2100) oceanic CO 2 uptake into a CO 2 -induced component, due to rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, and a climate-induced component, due to global warming. The models capture the observation based magnitude and distribution of anthropogenic CO 2 uptake. The distributions of the climate-induced component are broadly consistent between the models, with reduced CO 2 uptake in the sub-polar Southern Ocean and the equatorial regions, owing to decreased CO 2 solubility; and reduced CO 2 uptake in the mid latitudes, owing to decreased CO 2 solubility and increased vertical stratification. The magnitude of the climate-induced component is sensitive to local warming in the southern extra tropics, to large freshwater fluxes in the extra tropical North Atlantic Ocean, and to small changes in the CO 2 solubility in the equatorial regions. In key anthropogenic CO 2 uptake regions, the climate-induced component offsets the CO 2 - induced component at a constant proportion up until the end of this century. This amounts to approximately 50% in the northern extra tropics and 25% in the southern extra tropics and equatorial regions. Consequently, the detection of climate change impacts on anthropogenic CO 2 uptake may be difficult without monitoring additional tracers, such as oxygen. (authors)

  18. Development of laser-based techniques for in situ characterization of the first wall in ITER and future fusion devices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Philipps, V.; Malaquias, A.; Hakola, A.; Karhunen, J.; Maddaluno, G.; Almaviva, S.; Caneve, L.; Colao, F.; Fortuna, E.; Gasior, P.; Kubkowska, M.; Czarnecka, A.; Laan, M.; Lissovski, A.; Paris, P.; van der Meiden, H. J.; Petersson, P.; Rubel, M.; Huber, A.; Zlobinski, M.; Schweer, B.; Gierse, N.; Xiao, Q.; Sergienko, G.

    2013-01-01

    Analysis and understanding of wall erosion, material transport and fuel retention are among the most important tasks for ITER and future devices, since these questions determine largely the lifetime and availability of the fusion reactor. These data are also of extreme value to improve the

  19. Texture-based analysis of COPD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lauge; Nielsen, Mads; Lo, Pechin Chien Pau

    2012-01-01

    This study presents a fully automatic, data-driven approach for texture-based quantitative analysis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in pulmonary computed tomography (CT) images. The approach uses supervised learning where the class labels are, in contrast to previous work, based...... on measured lung function instead of on manually annotated regions of interest (ROIs). A quantitative measure of COPD is obtained by fusing COPD probabilities computed in ROIs within the lung fields where the individual ROI probabilities are computed using a k nearest neighbor (kNN ) classifier. The distance...... and subsequently applied to classify 200 independent images from the same screening trial. The texture-based measure was significantly better at discriminating between subjects with and without COPD than were the two most common quantitative measures of COPD in the literature, which are based on density...

  20. Investigate Volatility Jumps in Chinese Stock Index Future and Spot Markets Based on Realized Volatility

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang qiang

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims to investigate Chinese stock index future and spot market's volatility jumps characteristics by using recentlydeveloped jumpstest(Barndorff-Nielsenand Shephard,2004).Thedataisoneyearhigh frequencydatafromthe period19/04/2012 to 19/04/2013. The empirical results show two important points. Firstly, the logarithm of adjusted realized volatility shows a high degree of autocorrelation and folows a normal distribution nearly perfect. These characteristics show a potential high forecast ability. Secondly,thedailyrealizedvolatilityjumpsshowalowdegreeofautocorrealtionbutwithsignificantvolatilityclusters.Ingeneral,thejumps component has a low percentage in realized volatility estimation for both future and spot market. On average, there is one significant jumpswithinevery ten continue trading days.Spotmarkets showshigherdegree of jumps,anda rapidly jumpscharacterises.It implies that jumps may transmission from spot to future market, and spot market dominate future market at some degree.

  1. Group-based social skills interventions for adolescents with higher-functioning autism spectrum disorder: a review and looking to the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, Camilla M; Lerner, Matthew D; Britton, Noah

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we synthesize the current literature on group-based social skills interventions (GSSIs) for adolescents (ages 10–20 years) with higher-functioning autism spectrum disorder and identify key concepts that should be addressed in future research on GSSIs. We consider the research participants, the intervention, the assessment of the intervention, and the research methodology and results to be integral and interconnected components of the GSSI literature, and we review each of these components respectively. Participant characteristics (eg, age, IQ, sex) and intervention characteristics (eg, targeted social skills, teaching strategies, duration and intensity) vary considerably across GSSIs; future research should evaluate whether participant and intervention characteristics mediate/moderate intervention efficacy. Multiple assessments (eg, parent-report, child-report, social cognitive assessments) are used to evaluate the efficacy of GSSIs; future research should be aware of the limitations of current measurement approaches and employ more accurate, sensitive, and comprehensive measurement approaches. Results of GSSIs are largely inconclusive, with few consistent findings across studies (eg, high parent and child satisfaction with the intervention); future research should employ more rigorous methodological standards for evaluating efficacy. A better understanding of these components in the current GSSI literature and a more sophisticated and rigorous analysis of these components in future research will lend clarity to key questions regarding the efficacy of GSSIs for individuals with autism spectrum disorder. PMID:23956616

  2. Possible futures for the Mediterranean: A cross-cutting approach of foresight analysis studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SANNA Serena

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Which are the possible scenarios that await the Mediterranean by 2025? This question characterizes the Plan Bleu synthesis report developed in the framework of the Pegaso project – funded by the 7 thFramework Programme of the European Union and devoted to Integrated Coastal Zone Management in the Mediterranean and Black Sea. As one of the Regional Activity Centres of the United Nations Environment Programme’s Mediterranean Action Plan (UNEP/MAP and as an observatory of the environment and development in the Mediterranean, Plan Bleu carried out various prospective studies to identify the threats and opportunities that arise in relation to sustainable development in the region, and the possible policy responses that might be needed. Plan Bleu developed recently a transversal analysis, synthetizing several relevant prospective studies at the Mediterranean level. Starting from the “business as usual” and alternative scenarios offered by those studies, this synthesis develops a cross-cutting approach between different dimensions of change (demographic trends, climate change, globalization and topics (water, energy, coastal development, urbanization, tourism, maritime transportation. It also takes into account recent events and changes (i.e. global economic crisis, Arab Spring, institutional reforms whose impacts on the future political trends could not be ignored. On the one hand the synthesis gathers a critical collection of scenarios for the Mediterranean, as outlined by a range of recent prospective studies. On the other hand, taking into account seeds of change and inflections of current trends, the reflection raises the crucial perspective towards a new regional prospective study at the 2050 horizon.

  3. Front end embedded microprocessors in the JET computer-based control system, past, present and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steed, C.A.; VanderBeken, H.; Browne, M.L.; Fullard, K.; Reed, K.; Tilley, M.; Schmidt, V.

    1987-01-01

    A brief history of the use of Front End Microprocessors in the JET Control and Data Acquisition System (CODAS) is presented. The present expansion in their use from 2 or 3 in 1983 to 27 now, is covered along with the reasoning behind their present usage. Finally, their future planned use in the area of remote handling is discussed and the authors present views on the use of front end processing in future large distributed control systems are presented

  4. A Future-Based Risk Assessment for the Survivability of Long Range Strike Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-03-01

    Aeronautics and Space Administration ( NASA ) investigated alternative futures to help generate a viable science strategy to address the future aerospace...World American World View ΔTeK World Power Grid Name 1 Global Exponential Dispersed DIGITAL CACOPHONY 2 Global Exponential Concentrated STAR TREK ...The United States has become the “United Kingdom of the Twenty-first Century.” 2.2.3. NASA Study (1997) In the NASA study, the National Research

  5. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark: IDA 2050, CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis), and Climate Commission 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy sectors. The methodologies used in two academic scenarios, IDA 2050 and CEESA, are compared. The main differences in the methodologies of IDA 2050 and CEESA are found in the estimation of future biomass potential, transport demand assessment, and a trial to examine future power grid in an electrical engineering perspective. The above-mentioned methodologies are compared in an evolutionary perspective to determine if the methodologies reflect the complex reality well. The results of the scenarios are also assessed within the framework of “radical technological change” in order to show which future scenario assumes more radical change within five dimensions of technology; technique, knowledge, organization, product, and profit. -- Highlights: ► Three future scenarios for Danish future in 2050 are compared. ► All of these scenarios suggest the same solutions for the future with minor differences. ► There are differences in methodologies for IDA 2050 and CEESA such as biomass, transport, and power grid. ► The contents of scenarios are assessed which scenario assume more radical technological change in the future.

  6. Recommendations for Future Army Analysis Efforts. Volume 4. Key Questions and Recommendations for Future Analysis Efforts on Explaining the Army and Supporting the Soldier

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-04-14

    McDonalds or Burger King for snack shops, Marriott for messing/billeting facilities, etc.? RECOMMENDED ELEMENTS OF ANALYSIS/TOPICAL AREAS: DATE RESULTS ITEM...e.g., a Burger King on post) now brings in about SI million per month to the family support coffers. It began in 1984 and has returned $21 million...Army, private sector franchises and family support. - The first or leading question is whether the family affects retention and, if so, what the Army

  7. The cognitive bases of the development of past and future episodic cognition in preschoolers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ünal, Gülten; Hohenberger, Annette

    2017-10-01

    The aim of this study was to use a minimalist framework to examine the joint development of past and future episodic cognition and their underlying cognitive abilities in 3- to 5-year-old Turkish preschoolers. Participants engaged in two main tasks, a what-where-when (www) task to measure episodic memory and a future prediction task to measure episodic future thinking. Three additional tasks were used for predicting children's performance in the two main tasks: a temporal language task, an executive function task, and a spatial working memory task. Results indicated that past and future episodic tasks were significantly correlated with each other even after controlling for age. Hierarchical multiple regressions showed that, after controlling for age, the www task was predicted by executive functions, possibly supporting binding of episodic information and by linguistic abilities. The future prediction task was predicted by linguistic abilities alone, underlining the importance of language for episodic past and future thinking. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Fetal Cell Based Prenatal Diagnosis: Perspectives on the Present and Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morris Fiddler

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The ability to capture and analyze fetal cells from maternal circulation or other sources during pregnancy has been a goal of prenatal diagnostics for over thirty years. The vision of replacing invasive prenatal diagnostic procedures with the prospect of having the entire fetal genome in hand non-invasively for chromosomal and molecular studies for both clinical and research use has brought many investigators and innovations into the effort. While the object of this desire, however, has remained elusive, the aspiration for this approach to non-invasive prenatal diagnosis remains and the inquiry has continued. With the advent of screening by cell-free DNA analysis, the standards for fetal cell based prenatal diagnostics have been sharpened. Relevant aspects of the history and the current status of investigations to meet the goal of having an accessible and reliable strategy for capturing and analyzing fetal cells during pregnancy are reviewed.

  9. Watershed-based Morphometric Analysis: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukristiyanti, S.; Maria, R.; Lestiana, H.

    2018-02-01

    Drainage basin/watershed analysis based on morphometric parameters is very important for watershed planning. Morphometric analysis of watershed is the best method to identify the relationship of various aspects in the area. Despite many technical papers were dealt with in this area of study, there is no particular standard classification and implication of each parameter. It is very confusing to evaluate a value of every morphometric parameter. This paper deals with the meaning of values of the various morphometric parameters, with adequate contextual information. A critical review is presented on each classification, the range of values, and their implications. Besides classification and its impact, the authors also concern about the quality of input data, either in data preparation or scale/the detail level of mapping. This review paper hopefully can give a comprehensive explanation to assist the upcoming research dealing with morphometric analysis.

  10. XML-based analysis interface for particle physics data analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Jifeng; Lu Xiaorui; Zhang Yangheng

    2011-01-01

    The letter emphasizes on an XML-based interface and its framework for particle physics data analysis. The interface uses a concise XML syntax to describe, in data analysis, the basic tasks: event-selection, kinematic fitting, particle identification, etc. and a basic processing logic: the next step goes on if and only if this step succeeds. The framework can perform an analysis without compiling by loading the XML-interface file, setting p in run-time and running dynamically. An analysis coding in XML instead of C++, easy-to-understood arid use, effectively reduces the work load, and enables users to carry out their analyses quickly. The framework has been developed on the BESⅢ offline software system (BOSS) with the object-oriented C++ programming. These functions, required by the regular tasks and the basic processing logic, are implemented with both standard modules or inherited from the modules in BOSS. The interface and its framework have been tested to perform physics analysis. (authors)

  11. YersiniaBase: a genomic resource and analysis platform for comparative analysis of Yersinia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Shi Yang; Dutta, Avirup; Jakubovics, Nicholas S; Ang, Mia Yang; Siow, Cheuk Chuen; Mutha, Naresh Vr; Heydari, Hamed; Wee, Wei Yee; Wong, Guat Jah; Choo, Siew Woh

    2015-01-16

    Yersinia is a Gram-negative bacteria that includes serious pathogens such as the Yersinia pestis, which causes plague, Yersinia pseudotuberculosis, Yersinia enterocolitica. The remaining species are generally considered non-pathogenic to humans, although there is evidence that at least some of these species can cause occasional infections using distinct mechanisms from the more pathogenic species. With the advances in sequencing technologies, many genomes of Yersinia have been sequenced. However, there is currently no specialized platform to hold the rapidly-growing Yersinia genomic data and to provide analysis tools particularly for comparative analyses, which are required to provide improved insights into their biology, evolution and pathogenicity. To facilitate the ongoing and future research of Yersinia, especially those generally considered non-pathogenic species, a well-defined repository and analysis platform is needed to hold the Yersinia genomic data and analysis tools for the Yersinia research community. Hence, we have developed the YersiniaBase, a robust and user-friendly Yersinia resource and analysis platform for the analysis of Yersinia genomic data. YersiniaBase has a total of twelve species and 232 genome sequences, of which the majority are Yersinia pestis. In order to smooth the process of searching genomic data in a large database, we implemented an Asynchronous JavaScript and XML (AJAX)-based real-time searching system in YersiniaBase. Besides incorporating existing tools, which include JavaScript-based genome browser (JBrowse) and Basic Local Alignment Search Tool (BLAST), YersiniaBase also has in-house developed tools: (1) Pairwise Genome Comparison tool (PGC) for comparing two user-selected genomes; (2) Pathogenomics Profiling Tool (PathoProT) for comparative pathogenomics analysis of Yersinia genomes; (3) YersiniaTree for constructing phylogenetic tree of Yersinia. We ran analyses based on the tools and genomic data in YersiniaBase and the

  12. Chapter 11. Community analysis-based methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cao, Y.; Wu, C.H.; Andersen, G.L.; Holden, P.A.

    2010-05-01

    Microbial communities are each a composite of populations whose presence and relative abundance in water or other environmental samples are a direct manifestation of environmental conditions, including the introduction of microbe-rich fecal material and factors promoting persistence of the microbes therein. As shown by culture-independent methods, different animal-host fecal microbial communities appear distinctive, suggesting that their community profiles can be used to differentiate fecal samples and to potentially reveal the presence of host fecal material in environmental waters. Cross-comparisons of microbial communities from different hosts also reveal relative abundances of genetic groups that can be used to distinguish sources. In increasing order of their information richness, several community analysis methods hold promise for MST applications: phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis, denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE), terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (TRFLP), cloning/sequencing, and PhyloChip. Specific case studies involving TRFLP and PhyloChip approaches demonstrate the ability of community-based analyses of contaminated waters to confirm a diagnosis of water quality based on host-specific marker(s). The success of community-based MST for comprehensively confirming fecal sources relies extensively upon using appropriate multivariate statistical approaches. While community-based MST is still under evaluation and development as a primary diagnostic tool, results presented herein demonstrate its promise. Coupled with its inherently comprehensive ability to capture an unprecedented amount of microbiological data that is relevant to water quality, the tools for microbial community analysis are increasingly accessible, and community-based approaches have unparalleled potential for translation into rapid, perhaps real-time, monitoring platforms.

  13. Examination of the Cost-of-Carry Formula for Futures Contracts on WIG20. Wavelet and Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruzda, Joanna

    The instantaneous and non-instantaneous dependences between spot and futures index prices has been subject of numerous empirical investigations. The theoretical background of these studies is the cost-ofcarry model introduced by [15]. The cost-of-carry model is an arbitrage relationship based on comparison between two alternative methods of acquiring an asset at some future date. In the first method an asset is purchased now and held until this future date. In the second case a futures contract with maturity on the required date is bought. The present value of the futures contract is invested at the risk free interest rate until delivery of the underlying asset at the maturity date. Arbitrage should ensure that the difference between the current asset price and the futures contract price is the cost of carrying the asset, which involves dividend yields and interest rates. The cost-of-carry formula gives the fair price of the futures contract: F_{t,T} = S_t e^{left( {r_t - d_t } right)left( {T - t} right)} where St is the security index price at time t, F t,T is the index futures price at time t with maturity T, r t is the risk free interest rate, d t is the dividend yield on the security index, and (T — t) is the time to maturity of the futures contract. Taking logarithms of both sides of equation (1) we get: f_{t,T} = s_t + left( {r_t - d_t } right)left( {T - t} right)

  14. Analysis of the interrelationship of energy, economy, and environment: A model of a sustainable energy future for Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boo, Kyung-Jin

    The primary purpose of this dissertation is to provide the groundwork for a sustainable energy future in Korea. For this purpose, a conceptual framework of sustainable energy development was developed to provide a deeper understanding of interrelationships between energy, the economy, and the environment (E 3). Based on this theoretical work, an empirical simulation model was developed to investigate the ways in which E3 interact. This dissertation attempts to develop a unified concept of sustainable energy development by surveying multiple efforts to integrate various definitions of sustainability. Sustainable energy development should be built on the basis of three principles: ecological carrying capacity, economic efficiency, and socio-political equity. Ecological carrying capacity delineates the earth's resource constraints as well as its ability to assimilate wastes. Socio-political equity implies an equitable distribution of the benefits and costs of energy consumption and an equitable distribution of environmental burdens. Economic efficiency dictates efficient allocation of scarce resources. The simulation model is composed of three modules: an energy module, an environmental module and an economic module. Because the model is grounded on economic structural behaviorism, the dynamic nature of the current economy is effectively depicted and simulated through manipulating exogenous policy variables. This macro-economic model is used to simulate six major policy intervention scenarios. Major findings from these policy simulations were: (1) carbon taxes are the most effective means of reducing air-pollutant emissions; (2) sustainable energy development can be achieved through reinvestment of carbon taxes into energy efficiency and renewable energy programs; and (3) carbon taxes would increase a nation's welfare if reinvested in relevant areas. The policy simulation model, because it is based on neoclassical economics, has limitations such that it cannot fully

  15. Insight into S-RNase-based self-incompatibility in Petunia: recent findings and future directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin S Williams

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available S-RNase-based self-incompatibility in Petunia is a self/non-self recognition system that allows the pistil to reject self-pollen to prevent inbreeding and to accept non-self pollen for outcrossing. Cloning of S-RNase in 1986 marked the beginning of nearly three decades of intensive research into the mechanism of this complex system. S-RNase was shown to be the sole female determinant in 1994, and the first male determinant, S-locus F-box protein1 (SLF1, was identified in 2004. It was discovered in 2010 that additional SLF proteins are involved in pollen specificity, and recently two S-haplotypes of P. inflata were found to possess 17 SLF genes based on pollen transcriptome analysis, further increasing the complexity of the system. Here, we first summarize the current understanding of how the interplay between SLF proteins and S-RNase in the pollen tube allows cross-compatible pollination, but results in self-incompatible pollination. We then discuss some of the aspects that are not yet elucidated, including uptake of S-RNase into the pollen tube, nature and assembly of SLF-containing complexes, the biochemical basis for differential interactions between SLF proteins and S-RNase, and fate of non-self S-RNases in the pollen tube.

  16. The estimation of future surface water bodies at Olkiluoto area based on statistical terrain and land uplift models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pohjola, J.; Turunen, J.; Lipping, T. [Tampere Univ. of Technology (Finland); Ikonen, A.

    2014-03-15

    In this working report the modelling effort of future landscape development and surface water body formation at the modelling area in the vicinity of the Olkiluoto Island is presented. Estimation of the features of future surface water bodies is based on probabilistic terrain and land uplift models presented in previous working reports. The estimation is done using a GIS-based toolbox called UNTAMO. The future surface water bodies are estimated in 10 000 years' time span with 1000 years' intervals for the safety assessment of disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site. In the report a brief overview on the techniques used for probabilistic terrain modelling, land uplift modelling and hydrological modelling are presented first. The latter part of the report describes the results of the modelling effort. The main features of the future landscape - the four lakes forming in the vicinity of the Olkiluoto Island - are identified and the probabilistic model of the shoreline displacement is presented. The area and volume of the four lakes is modelled in a probabilistic manner. All the simulations have been performed for three scenarios two of which are based on 10 realizations of the probabilistic digital terrain model (DTM) and 10 realizations of the probabilistic land uplift model. These two scenarios differ from each other by the eustatic curve used in the land uplift model. The third scenario employs 50 realizations of the probabilistic DTM while a deterministic land uplift model, derived solely from the current land uplift rate, is used. The results indicate that the two scenarios based on the probabilistic land uplift model behave in a similar manner while the third model overestimates past and future land uplift rates. The main features of the landscape are nevertheless similar also for the third scenario. Prediction results for the volumes of the future lakes indicate that a couple of highly probably lake formation scenarios can be identified

  17. The estimation of future surface water bodies at Olkiluoto area based on statistical terrain and land uplift models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pohjola, J.; Turunen, J.; Lipping, T.; Ikonen, A.

    2014-03-01

    In this working report the modelling effort of future landscape development and surface water body formation at the modelling area in the vicinity of the Olkiluoto Island is presented. Estimation of the features of future surface water bodies is based on probabilistic terrain and land uplift models presented in previous working reports. The estimation is done using a GIS-based toolbox called UNTAMO. The future surface water bodies are estimated in 10 000 years' time span with 1000 years' intervals for the safety assessment of disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site. In the report a brief overview on the techniques used for probabilistic terrain modelling, land uplift modelling and hydrological modelling are presented first. The latter part of the report describes the results of the modelling effort. The main features of the future landscape - the four lakes forming in the vicinity of the Olkiluoto Island - are identified and the probabilistic model of the shoreline displacement is presented. The area and volume of the four lakes is modelled in a probabilistic manner. All the simulations have been performed for three scenarios two of which are based on 10 realizations of the probabilistic digital terrain model (DTM) and 10 realizations of the probabilistic land uplift model. These two scenarios differ from each other by the eustatic curve used in the land uplift model. The third scenario employs 50 realizations of the probabilistic DTM while a deterministic land uplift model, derived solely from the current land uplift rate, is used. The results indicate that the two scenarios based on the probabilistic land uplift model behave in a similar manner while the third model overestimates past and future land uplift rates. The main features of the landscape are nevertheless similar also for the third scenario. Prediction results for the volumes of the future lakes indicate that a couple of highly probably lake formation scenarios can be identified with other

  18. Web-based Analysis Services Report

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2108758; Canali, Luca; Grancher, Eric; Lamanna, Massimo; McCance, Gavin; Mato Vila, Pere; Piparo, Danilo; Moscicki, Jakub; Pace, Alberto; Brito Da Rocha, Ricardo; Simko, Tibor; Smith, Tim; Tejedor Saavedra, Enric; CERN. Geneva. IT Department

    2017-01-01

    Web-based services (cloud services) is an important trend to innovate end-user services while optimising the service operational costs. CERN users are constantly proposing new approaches (inspired from services existing on the web, tools used in education or other science or based on their experience in using existing computing services). In addition, industry and open source communities have recently made available a large number of powerful and attractive tools and platforms that enable large scale data processing. “Big Data” software stacks notably provide solutions for scalable storage, distributed compute and data analysis engines, data streaming, web-based interfaces (notebooks). Some of those platforms and tools, typically available as open source products, are experiencing a very fast adoption in industry and science such that they are becoming “de facto” references in several areas of data engineering, data science and machine learning. In parallel to users' requests, WLCG is considering to c...

  19. Digital Story-Based Problem Solving Applications: Preservice Primary Teachers' Experiences and Future Integration Plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilic, Çigdem; Sancar-Tokmak, Hatice

    2017-01-01

    This case study investigates how preservice primary school teachers describe their experiences with digital story-based problem solving applications and their plans for the future integration of this technology into their teaching. Totally 113 preservice primary school teachers participated in the study. Data collection tools included a…

  20. Assessing the Effects of a Work-Based Antipoverty Program for Parents on Youth's Future Orientation and Employment Experiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLoyd, Vonnie C.; Kaplan, Rachel; Purtell, Kelly M.; Huston, Aletha C.

    2011-01-01

    The impacts of New Hope, a 3-year work-based antipoverty program to increase parent employment and reduce poverty, on youth ages 9-19 (N = 866) were assessed 5 years after parents left the program. New Hope had positive effects on the future orientation and employment experiences of boys, especially African American boys. Compared to boys in…

  1. Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pelt, van S.C.; Beersma, J.J.; Buishand, T.A.; Hurk, van den B.J.J.M.; Kabat, P.

    2012-01-01

    Probability estimates of the future change of extreme precipitation events are usually based on a limited number of available global climate model (GCM) or regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Since floods are related to heavy precipitation events, this restricts the assessment of flood risks.

  2. The future of high-strength copper base conductor materials; Hochfeste Leitermaterialien auf Kupfer-Basis: quo vadis?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freudenberger, J.; Botcharova, E.; Gaganov, A.; Lyubimova, J.; Schultz, L. [Institut fuer Festkoerper- und Werkstofforschung Dresden e.V. (Germany). Inst. fuer Metallische Werkstoffe; Witte, H.; Jones, H. [Oxford Univ. (United Kingdom). Dept. of Physics; Hermannsdoerfer, T.; Zherlitsyn, S.; Wosnitza, J. [Forschungszentrum Rossendorf e.V. (FZR), Dresden (Germany). Hochfeld-Magnetlabor; Givord, D. [Institut Neel, Grenoble (France); Barthem, V.M.T.S. [Universidade Federal, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Fisica; Boettcher, R.D.; Hannemann, K. [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Goettingen (Germany). Inst. fuer Aerodynamik und Stroemungstechnik

    2008-07-01

    Conductor materials with specific mechanical properties are required in many fields of science and industry. They are optimised selectively to achieve certain properties and optimum functionality, which often makes them a key component of the system in which they are used. This contribution describes current and future applications of the copper base high-strength conductor materials developed at IFW Dresden. (orig.)

  3. Learner-Centered SEM and Competency-Based Education: Exploring the Learning Frontier of Graduate Enrollment Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snowden, Monique L.

    2014-01-01

    In March 2013, the US Department of Education issued guidance to institutions on how to attain approval for competency-based programs under the current title IV, Higher Education Act (HEA) regulations on direct assessment programs. This article considers the graduate enrollment futures of colleges and universities that have chosen and will elect…

  4. End-User Attitudes towards Location-Based Services and Future Mobile Wireless Devices: The Students’ Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Cramariuc

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, location-enabled mobile phones are becoming more and more widespread. Various players in the mobile business forecast that, in the future, a significant part of total wireless revenue will come from Location-Based Services (LBS. An LBS system extracts information about the user’s geographical location and provides services based on the positioning information. A successful LBS service should create value for the end-user, by satisfying some of the users’ needs or wants, and at the same time preserving the key factors of the mobile wireless device, such as low costs, low battery consumption, and small size. From many users’ perspectives, location services and mobile location capabilities are still rather poorly known and poorly understood. The aim of this research is to investigate users’ views on the LBS, their requirements in terms of mobile device characteristics, their concerns in terms of privacy and usability, and their opinion on LBS applications that might increase the social wellbeing in the future wireless world. Our research is based on two surveys performed among 105 students (average student age: 24 years from two European technical universities. The survey questions were intended to solicit the youngsters’ views on present and future technological trends and on their perceived needs and wishes regarding Location-Based Services, with the aim of obtaining a better understanding of designer constraints when building a location receiver and generating new ideas related to potential future killer LBS applications.

  5. A Survey of Advances in Vision-Based Human Motion Capture and Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moeslund, Thomas B.; Hilton, Adrian; Krüger, Volker

    2006-01-01

    This survey reviews advances in human motion capture and analysis from 2000 to 2006, following a previous survey of papers up to 2000 Human motion capture continues to be an increasingly active research area in computer vision with over 350 publications over this period. A number of significant...... actions and behavior. This survey reviews recent trends in video based human capture and analysis, as well as discussing open problems for future research to achieve automatic visual analysis of human movement....

  6. Mechanical stress analysis during a quench in CLIQ protected 16 T dipole magnets designed for the future circular collider

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Junjie; Prioli, Marco; Stenvall, Antti; Salmi, Tiina; Gao, Yuanwen; Caiffi, Barbara; Lorin, Clement; Marinozzi, Vittorio; Farinon, Stefania; Sorbi, Massimo

    2018-07-01

    Protecting the magnets in case of a quench is a challenge for the 16 T superconducting dipole magnets presently designed for the 100 TeV: Future Circular Collider (FCC). These magnets are driven to the foreseen technological limits in terms of critical current, mechanical strength and quench protection. The magnets are protected with CLIQ (Coupling-Loss Induced Quench) system, which is a recently developed quench protection method based on discharging a capacitor bank across part of the winding. The oscillation of the magnet currents and the dissipation of the high stored energy into the windings cause electrodynamic forces and thermal stresses, which may need to be considered in the magnet mechanical design. This paper focuses on mechanical stress analysis during a quench of the 16 T cos-θ and block type dipole magnets. A finite element model allowed studying the stress due to the non-uniform temperature and current distribution in the superconducting coils. Two different CLIQ configurations were considered for the cos-θ design and one for the block type magnet. The analyses of the mechanical behavior of two magnets during a quench without or with hot spot turn were separately carried out. The simulation results show that the stress related to a quench should be considered when designing a high field magnet.

  7. Recent advancements and future trends in environmental analysis: Sample preparation, liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Fernández, Virginia; Mainero Rocca, Lucia; Tomai, Pierpaolo; Fanali, Salvatore; Gentili, Alessandra

    2017-08-29

    Among the thousands of chemicals having potential to enter the environment, the NORMAN network has identified at least 700 substances categorized into 20 classes in the European surface waters. Pesticides, pharmaceuticals, disinfection by-products, wood preservation and industrial chemicals are the prominent classes. Since the impact of these substances on aquatic life and human health might be dramatic, action is urgently required at multiple levels; one of them is just related to the development of more and more sensible and selective analytical methods. This review highlights the latest advancements and trends in liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry based environmental analysis. Specific sections are dedicated to novelties in sample preparation, chromatographic separation and mass spectrometry detection of emerging pollutants. The review also offers insights on last generation chromatographic and extraction materials, technological progresses and innovative methodological approaches for target and non-target analysis. As numerous papers have been published in this field, this overview covers the most representative and original works published in the 2011-2016 period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Lung and Heart Sounds Analysis: State-of-the-Art and Future Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla-Ortiz, Ana L; Ibarra, David

    2018-01-01

    Lung sounds, which include all sounds that are produced during the mechanism of respiration, may be classified into normal breath sounds and adventitious sounds. Normal breath sounds occur when no respiratory problems exist, whereas adventitious lung sounds (wheeze, rhonchi, crackle, etc.) are usually associated with certain pulmonary pathologies. Heart and lung sounds that are heard using a stethoscope are the result of mechanical interactions that indicate operation of cardiac and respiratory systems, respectively. In this article, we review the research conducted during the last six years on lung and heart sounds, instrumentation and data sources (sensors and databases), technological advances, and perspectives in processing and data analysis. Our review suggests that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma are the most common respiratory diseases reported on in the literature; related diseases that are less analyzed include chronic bronchitis, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, congestive heart failure, and parenchymal pathology. Some new findings regarding the methodologies associated with advances in the electronic stethoscope have been presented for the auscultatory heart sound signaling process, including analysis and clarification of resulting sounds to create a diagnosis based on a quantifiable medical assessment. The availability of automatic interpretation of high precision of heart and lung sounds opens interesting possibilities for cardiovascular diagnosis as well as potential for intelligent diagnosis of heart and lung diseases.

  9. Protein Analysis in Human Cerebrospinal Fluid: Physiological Aspects, Current Progress and Future Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas F. Hühmer

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of lumbar puncture into clinical medicine over 100 years ago marks the beginning of the study of central nervous system diseases using the human cerebrospinal fluid (CSF. Ever since, CSF has been analyzed extensively to elucidate the physiological and biochemical bases of neurological disease. The proximity of CSF to the brain makes it a good target for studying the pathophysiology of brain functions, but the barrier function of the CSF also impedes its diagnostic value. Today, measurements to determine alterations in the composition of CSF are central in the differential diagnosis of specific diseases of the central nervous system (CNS. In particular, the analysis of the CSF protein composition provides crucial information in the diagnosis of CNS diseases. This enables the assessment of the physiology of the blood-CSF barrier and of the immunology of intrathecial responses. Besides those routine measurements, protein compositional studies of CSF have been extended recently to many other proteins in the expectation that comprehensive analysis of lower abundance CSF proteins will lead to the discovery of new disease markers. Disease marker discovery by molecular profiling of the CSF tissue has the enormous potential of providing many new disease relevant molecules. New developments in protein profiling techniques hold promise for the discovery and validation of relevant disease markers. In this review, we summarize the current efforts and progress in CSF protein profiling measurements using conventional and current protein analysis tools. We also discuss necessary development in methodology in order to have the highest impact on the study of the molecular composition of CSF proteins.

  10. Evaluation of existing and proposed computer architectures for future ground-based systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulbach, C.

    1985-01-01

    Parallel processing architectures and techniques used in current supercomputers are described and projections are made of future advances. Presently, the von Neumann sequential processing pattern has been accelerated by having separate I/O processors, interleaved memories, wide memories, independent functional units and pipelining. Recent supercomputers have featured single-input, multiple data stream architectures, which have different processors for performing various operations (vector or pipeline processors). Multiple input, multiple data stream machines have also been developed. Data flow techniques, wherein program instructions are activated only when data are available, are expected to play a large role in future supercomputers, along with increased parallel processor arrays. The enhanced operational speeds are essential for adequately treating data from future spacecraft remote sensing instruments such as the Thematic Mapper.

  11. Model-based Integration of Past & Future in TimeTravel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khalefa, Mohamed E.; Fischer, Ulrike; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    2012-01-01

    We demonstrate TimeTravel, an efficient DBMS system for seamless integrated querying of past and (forecasted) future values of time series, allowing the user to view past and future values as one joint time series. This functionality is important for advanced application domain like energy....... The main idea is to compactly represent time series as models. By using models, the TimeTravel system answers queries approximately on past and future data with error guarantees (absolute error and confidence) one order of magnitude faster than when accessing the time series directly. In addition...... it to answer approximate and exact queries. TimeTravel is implemented into PostgreSQL, thus achieving complete user transparency at the query level. In the demo, we show the easy building of a hierarchical model index for a real-world time series and the effect of varying the error guarantees on the speed up...

  12. Trust and Credibility in Web-Based Health Information: A Review and Agenda for Future Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sbaffi, Laura; Rowley, Jennifer

    2017-06-19

    Internet sources are becoming increasingly important in seeking health information, such that they may have a significant effect on health care decisions and outcomes. Hence, given the wide range of different sources of Web-based health information (WHI) from different organizations and individuals, it is important to understand how information seekers evaluate and select the sources that they use, and more specifically, how they assess their credibility and trustworthiness. The aim of this study was to review empirical studies on trust and credibility in the use of WHI. The article seeks to present a profile of the research conducted on trust and credibility in WHI seeking, to identify the factors that impact judgments of trustworthiness and credibility, and to explore the role of demographic factors affecting trust formation. On this basis, it aimed to identify the gaps in current knowledge and to propose an agenda for future research. A systematic literature review was conducted. Searches were conducted using a variety of combinations of the terms WHI, trust, credibility, and their variants in four multi-disciplinary and four health-oriented databases. Articles selected were published in English from 2000 onwards; this process generated 3827 unique records. After the application of the exclusion criteria, 73 were analyzed fully. Interest in this topic has persisted over the last 15 years, with articles being published in medicine, social science, and computer science and originating mostly from the United States and the United Kingdom. Documents in the final dataset fell into 3 categories: (1) those using trust or credibility as a dependent variable, (2) those using trust or credibility as an independent variable, and (3) studies of the demographic factors that influence the role of trust or credibility in WHI seeking. There is a consensus that website design, clear layout, interactive features, and the authority of the owner have a positive effect on trust or

  13. Future space-based direct imaging platforms: high fidelity simulations and instrument testbed development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, Brian A.; Eberhardt, Andrew; SAINT, VNC, LUVOIR

    2017-06-01

    The direct detection and characterization of habitable zone (HZ) Earth-like exoplanets is predicated on light gathering power of a large telescope operating with tens of millicarcsecond angular resolution, and at contrast scales on the order of 0.1 ppb. Accessing a statistically significant sample of planets to search for habitable worlds will likely build on the knowledge and insfrastructure gained through JWST, later advancing to assembly in space or formation flying approaches that may eventually be used to achieve even greater photometric sensitivity or resolution. in order to address contrast, a means of starlight suppression is needed that contends with complex aperture diffraction. The Visible Nulling Coronagraph (VNC) is one such approach that destructively interferes starlight to enable detection and characterization of extrasolar objects.The VNC is being incorporated into an end-to-end telescope-coronagraph system demonstrator called the Segmented Aperture Interferometric Nulling Testbed (SAINT). Development of the VNC has a rich legacy, and successfully demonstrating its capability with SAINT will mark milestones towards meeting the high-contrast direct imaging needs of future large space telescopes. SAINT merges the VNC with an actively-controlled segmented aperture telescope via a fine pointing system and aims to demonstrate 1e-8 contrast nulling of a segmented aperture at an inner working angle of four diffraction radii over a 20 nm visible bandpass. The system comprises four detectors for wavefront sensing, one of which is the high-contrast focal plane. The detectors provide feedback to control the segmented telescope primary mirror, a fast steering mirror, a segmented deformable mirror, and a delay stage. All of these components must work in concert with passive optical elements that are designed, fabricated, and aligned pairwise to achieve the requisite wavefront symmetry needed to push the state of the art in broadband destructive interferometric

  14. The Southern Forest Futures Project: technical report

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear; John G. Greis

    2013-01-01

    Please visit the Southern Forest Futures Project website for more information.The Southern Forest Futures Project provides a science-based “futuring” analysis of the forests of the 13 States of the Southeastern United States. With findings...

  15. System based practice: a concept analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SHAHRAM YAZDANI

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Systems-Based Practice (SBP is one of the six competencies introduced by the ACGME for physicians to provide high quality of care and also the most challenging of them in performance, training, and evaluation of medical students. This concept analysis clarifies the concept of SBP by identifying its components to make it possible to differentiate it from other similar concepts. For proper training of SBP and to ensure these competencies in physicians, it is necessary to have an operational definition, and SBP’s components must be precisely defined in order to provide valid and reliable assessment tools. Methods: Walker & Avant’s approach to concept analysis was performed in eight stages: choosing a concept, determining the purpose of analysis, identifying all uses of the concept, defining attributes, identifying a model case, identifying borderline, related, and contrary cases, identifying antecedents and consequences, and defining empirical referents. Results: Based on the analysis undertaken, the attributes of SBP includes knowledge of the system, balanced decision between patients’ need and system goals, effective role playing in interprofessional health care team, system level of health advocacy, and acting for system improvement. System thinking and a functional system are antecedents and system goals are consequences. A case model, as well as border, and contrary cases of SBP, has been introduced. Conclusion: The identification of SBP attributes in this study contributes to the body of knowledge in SBP and reduces the ambiguity of this concept to make it possible for applying it in training of different medical specialties. Also, it would be possible to develop and use more precise tools to evaluate SBP competency by using empirical referents of the analysis.

  16. Relationship between Future Time Orientation and Item Nonresponse on Subjective Probability Questions: A Cross-Cultural Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sunghee; Liu, Mingnan; Hu, Mengyao

    2017-06-01

    Time orientation is an unconscious yet fundamental cognitive process that provides a framework for organizing personal experiences in temporal categories of past, present and future, reflecting the relative emphasis given to these categories. Culture lies central to individuals' time orientation, leading to cultural variations in time orientation. For example, people from future-oriented cultures tend to emphasize the future and store information relevant for the future more than those from present- or past-oriented cultures. For survey questions that ask respondents to report expected probabilities of future events, this may translate into culture-specific question difficulties, manifested through systematically varying "I don't know" item nonresponse rates. This study drew on the time orientation theory and examined culture-specific nonresponse patterns on subjective probability questions using methodologically comparable population-based surveys from multiple countries. The results supported our hypothesis. Item nonresponse rates on these questions varied significantly in the way that future-orientation at the group as well as individual level was associated with lower nonresponse rates. This pattern did not apply to non-probability questions. Our study also suggested potential nonresponse bias. Examining culture-specific constructs, such as time orientation, as a framework for measurement mechanisms may contribute to improving cross-cultural research.

  17. NASA Lunar Base Wireless System Propagation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwu, Shian U.; Upanavage, Matthew; Sham, Catherine C.

    2007-01-01

    There have been many radio wave propagation studies using both experimental and theoretical techniques over the recent years. However, most of studies have been in support of commercial cellular phone wireless applications. The signal frequencies are mostly at the commercial cellular and Personal Communications Service bands. The antenna configurations are mostly one on a high tower and one near the ground to simulate communications between a cellular base station and a mobile unit. There are great interests in wireless communication and sensor systems for NASA lunar missions because of the emerging importance of establishing permanent lunar human exploration bases. Because of the specific lunar terrain geometries and RF frequencies of interest to the NASA missions, much of the published literature for the commercial cellular and PCS bands of 900 and 1800 MHz may not be directly applicable to the lunar base wireless system and environment. There are various communication and sensor configurations required to support all elements of a lunar base. For example, the communications between astronauts, between astronauts and the lunar vehicles, between lunar vehicles and satellites on the lunar orbits. There are also various wireless sensor systems among scientific, experimental sensors and data collection ground stations. This presentation illustrates the propagation analysis of the lunar wireless communication and sensor systems taking into account the three dimensional terrain multipath effects. It is observed that the propagation characteristics are significantly affected by the presence of the lunar terrain. The obtained results indicate the lunar surface material, terrain geometry and antenna location are the important factors affecting the propagation characteristics of the lunar wireless systems. The path loss can be much more severe than the free space propagation and is greatly affected by the antenna height, surface material and operating frequency. The

  18. Gait Correlation Analysis Based Human Identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyan Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Human gait identification aims to identify people by a sequence of walking images. Comparing with fingerprint or iris based identification, the most important advantage of gait identification is that it can be done at a distance. In this paper, silhouette correlation analysis based human identification approach is proposed. By background subtracting algorithm, the moving silhouette figure can be extracted from the walking images sequence. Every pixel in the silhouette has three dimensions: horizontal axis (x, vertical axis (y, and temporal axis (t. By moving every pixel in the silhouette image along these three dimensions, we can get a new silhouette. The correlation result between the original silhouette and the new one can be used as the raw feature of human gait. Discrete Fourier transform is used to extract features from this correlation result. Then, these features are normalized to minimize the affection of noise. Primary component analysis method is used to reduce the features’ dimensions. Experiment based on CASIA database shows that this method has an encouraging recognition performance.

  19. Optimal depth-based regional frequency analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wazneh

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Classical methods of regional frequency analysis (RFA of hydrological variables face two drawbacks: (1 the restriction to a particular region which can lead to a loss of some information and (2 the definition of a region that generates a border effect. To reduce the impact of these drawbacks on regional modeling performance, an iterative method was proposed recently, based on the statistical notion of the depth function and a weight function φ. This depth-based RFA (DBRFA approach was shown to be superior to traditional approaches in terms of flexibility, generality and performance. The main difficulty of the DBRFA approach is the optimal choice of the weight function ϕ (e.g., φ minimizing estimation errors. In order to avoid a subjective choice and naïve selection procedures of φ, the aim of the present paper is to propose an algorithm-based procedure to optimize the DBRFA and automate the choice of ϕ according to objective performance criteria. This procedure is applied to estimate flood quantiles in three different regions in North America. One of the findings from the application is that the optimal weight function depends on the considered region and can also quantify the region's homogeneity. By comparing the DBRFA to the canonical correlation analysis (CCA method, results show that the DBRFA approach leads to better performances both in terms of relative bias and mean square error.

  20. Optimal depth-based regional frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wazneh, H.; Chebana, F.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

    2013-06-01

    Classical methods of regional frequency analysis (RFA) of hydrological variables face two drawbacks: (1) the restriction to a particular region which can lead to a loss of some information and (2) the definition of a region that generates a border effect. To reduce the impact of these drawbacks on regional modeling performance, an iterative method was proposed recently, based on the statistical notion of the depth function and a weight function φ. This depth-based RFA (DBRFA) approach was shown to be superior to traditional approaches in terms of flexibility, generality and performance. The main difficulty of the DBRFA approach is the optimal choice of the weight function ϕ (e.g., φ minimizing estimation errors). In order to avoid a subjective choice and naïve selection procedures of φ, the aim of the present paper is to propose an algorithm-based procedure to optimize the DBRFA and automate the choice of ϕ according to objective performance criteria. This procedure is applied to estimate flood quantiles in three different regions in North America. One of the findings from the application is that the optimal weight function depends on the considered region and can also quantify the region's homogeneity. By comparing the DBRFA to the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) method, results show that the DBRFA approach leads to better performances both in terms of relative bias and mean square error.

  1. Dependent failure analysis of NPP data bases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, S.E.; Lofgren, E.V.; Samanta, P.K.; Wong Seemeng

    1993-01-01

    A technical approach for analyzing plant-specific data bases for vulnerabilities to dependent failures has been developed and applied. Since the focus of this work is to aid in the formulation of defenses to dependent failures, rather than to quantify dependent failure probabilities, the approach of this analysis is critically different. For instance, the determination of component failure dependencies has been based upon identical failure mechanisms related to component piecepart failures, rather than failure modes. Also, component failures involving all types of component function loss (e.g., catastrophic, degraded, incipient) are equally important to the predictive purposes of dependent failure defense development. Consequently, dependent component failures are identified with a different dependent failure definition which uses a component failure mechanism categorization scheme in this study. In this context, clusters of component failures which satisfy the revised dependent failure definition are termed common failure mechanism (CFM) events. Motor-operated valves (MOVs) in two nuclear power plant data bases have been analyzed with this approach. The analysis results include seven different failure mechanism categories; identified potential CFM events; an assessment of the risk-significance of the potential CFM events using existing probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs); and postulated defenses to the identified potential CFM events. (orig.)

  2. Analysis of landing site attributes for future missions targeting the rim of the lunar South Pole Aitken basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koebel, David; Bonerba, Michele; Behrenwaldt, Daniel; Wieser, Matthias; Borowy, Carsten

    2012-11-01

    For the South polar lunar region between -85 and -90° Latitude an updated analyses of the solar illumination and ground station visibility conditions has been performed in the frame of a feasibility study for an ESA Lunar Lander mission. The analyses are based on the refined lunar digital elevation model provided by the Japanese Kaguya/Selene mission, originating from its LASER altimeter instrument. For the South polar region maps of integral solar illumination are presented for a mission epoch in 2016. The analysis modelling was validated with the help of a Kaguya High Definition video. The solar illumination is driving for the power subsystems of any robotic lander craft or manned lunar outpost, in case they rely on conventional photovoltaic power generation with battery buffering of shadowed periods. In addition the visibility of the terrain from a terrestrial ESA ground station was analysed. The results are presented as an integral ground contact duration map, being crucial for the operations of any lunar outpost. Considering these two quality criteria, several possible landing sites for a future lunar mission have been pre-selected. For these sites a detailed analysis of quasi-continuous illumination conditions is presented. This includes magnified maps of the pre-selected areas, showing any location's longest illumination intervals that are allowed to be interrupted by shadows with limited duration only. As a final quality criterion, the terrain topology has been analysed for its impact on the landing trajectory. From a trade-off between the three quality criteria the connecting ridge between the Shackleton and the de Gerlache was determined to provide the most favourable landing site quality. This site is located at 89°28' South, 136°40' West, and 1947 m altitude, and features and integral illumination of 85.7%. With battery energy to sustain shadows of 120 h, total mission duration of 9.37 sidereal months can be guaranteed.

  3. Mapping epidemiology's past to inform its future: metaknowledge analysis of epidemiologic topics in leading journals, 1974-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trinquart, Ludovic; Galea, Sandro

    2015-07-15

    An empiric perspective on what epidemiology has studied over time might inform discussions about future directions for the discipline. We aimed to identify the main areas of epidemiologic inquiry and determine how they evolved over time in 5 high-impact epidemiologic journals. We analyzed the titles and abstracts of 20,895 articles that were published between 1974 and 2013. In 5 time periods that reflected approximately equal numbers of articles, we identified the main topics by clustering terms based on co-occurrence. Infectious disease and cardiovascular disease epidemiology were the prevailing topics over the 5 periods. Cancer epidemiology was a major topic from 1974 to 2001 but disappeared thereafter. Nutritional epidemiology gained relative importance from 1974 to 2013. Environmental epidemiology appeared during 1996-2001 and continued to be important, whereas 2 clusters related to methodology and meta-analysis in genetics appeared during 2008-2013. Several areas of epidemiology, including injury or psychiatric epidemiology, did not make an appearance as major topics at any time. In an ancillary analysis of 6 high-impact general medicine journals, we found patterns of epidemiologic articles that were overall consistent with the findings in epidemiologic journals. This metaknowledge investigation allowed identification of the dominant topics in and conversely those that were absent from 5 major epidemiologic journals. We discuss implications for the field. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. Analysis of ELM stability with extended MHD models in JET, JT-60U and future JT-60SA tokamak plasmas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiba, N.; Pamela, S.; Honda, M.; Urano, H.; Giroud, C.; Delabie, E.; Frassinetti, L.; Lupelli, I.; Hayashi, N.; Huijsmans, G.; JET Contributors, the; Research Unit, JT-60SA

    2018-01-01

    The stability with respect to a peeling-ballooning mode (PBM) was investigated numerically with extended MHD simulation codes in JET, JT-60U and future JT-60SA plasmas. The MINERVA-DI code was used to analyze the linear stability, including the effects of rotation and ion diamagnetic drift ({ω }* {{i}}), in JET-ILW and JT-60SA plasmas, and the JOREK code was used to simulate nonlinear dynamics with rotation, viscosity and resistivity in JT-60U plasmas. It was validated quantitatively that the ELM trigger condition in JET-ILW plasmas can be reasonably explained by taking into account both the rotation and {ω }* {{i}} effects in the numerical analysis. When deuterium poloidal rotation is evaluated based on neoclassical theory, an increase in the effective charge of plasma destabilizes the PBM because of an acceleration of rotation and a decrease in {ω }* {{i}}. The difference in the amount of ELM energy loss in JT-60U plasmas rotating in opposite directions was reproduced qualitatively with JOREK. By comparing the ELM affected areas with linear eigenfunctions, it was confirmed that the difference in the linear stability property, due not to the rotation direction but to the plasma density profile, is thought to be responsible for changing the ELM energy loss just after the ELM crash. A predictive study to determine the pedestal profiles in JT-60SA was performed by updating the EPED1 model to include the rotation and {ω }* {{i}} effects in the PBM stability analysis. It was shown that the plasma rotation predicted with the neoclassical toroidal viscosity degrades the pedestal performance by about 10% by destabilizing the PBM, but the pressure pedestal height will be high enough to achieve the target parameters required for the ITER-like shape inductive scenario in JT-60SA.

  5. Fiber-based optic sensor for detecting human blood clot: present and future revival

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshikeri, Nada; Bakhtiar, Hazri

    2018-05-01

    Sustaining human’s life-frame away from being impeded by the clot - ghost term, we attempt to approach a mobile fiber-based optical sensor (f-s) for detecting blood clot in a blood vessel (intra-arteries/veins). Blood vessels are the part of the circulatory system that transport blood throughout the human body, thus their significance of being protected arise to the monograph focus. MRI (magnetic resonance imaging), X-rays and other medical instruments are diagnostic immobility techniques with a slackest interval. The corer causation of fiber-based optical sensor is to detect a clump of blood in the bloodstream by providing a prompt mobile diagnostic intervals preserving last-minutes-breath of human’s life. The detector (f-s) has been etched by diluting sulphuric acid ~10% at certain zone to sensate its function. The in-vitro monograph peaks its maximal monitoring when the sensor is attached to Raman Spectroscopy (RS) setup. RS quantifies the relative intensities of fibrinogen bond, which is the first type of blood coagulation elements of blood plasma. Blood coagulation parameters are the major concern of the monograph investigation, such as total haemoglobin (tHb), clotting reaction time (t), clot progression time (t2), maximum clot amplitude (ma) and mean refractive index (r). A blood sample will be drawn from the patient and after centrifugation to separate blood plasma from its constituents, then an immediate sloshing of blood plasma in the (f-s) packet which has its plug-in to RS. Estimating the quantitative analysis of blood sample concentration, RS will determine the presence of coagulation in terms of intensity and medical procedures will dominate the treatment process. Thus, the suggestive monograph provides a definite instrument for investigating blood coagulation intra-arteries/veins promptly.

  6. Reducing handover latency in future IP-based wireless networks: Fast Proxy Mobile IPv6

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijenk, Geert; Bargh, Mortaza S.; Laganier, Julien; Prasad, Anand R.

    2008-01-01

    Current IP-level mobility protocols have difficulties meeting the stringent handover delay requirements of future wireless networks. At the same time they do not give sufficient control to the network to control the handover process. This paper presents an extension to Proxy Mobile IP, which is the

  7. Zero-Based Strategic Thinking: Real Innovation Shifts the Focus to the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichtman, Grant

    2014-01-01

    As recently as five years ago, educators politely listened to, and largely ignored, suggestions that the world is changing at a dramatic rate and that education must adapt. Today, many educators agree that the traditional Industrial Age model of learning no longer adequately prepares students for their futures. As a result, many schools, and…

  8. A Future-Oriented, Globally Based Curriculum Model for Industrial Technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, Michael

    1982-01-01

    Presents a future-oriented curriculum approach for industrial technology programs. Major global issues provide the basic structure for curriculum development. These issues include energy management, resource management, technological advancement, and international relations. Rationales for industrial technology are discussed and a curriculum…

  9. Analysis of equilibrium about bidding strategy of suppliers with future contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Zhiqiang; Liu, Dong; Jiang, Chuanwen

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, the supply function model is employed to simulate the bidding strategy of suppliers in the power pool, and models of the supply function with future contracts are presented. It is proved that only one of the parameters between slope and intercept of the bidding curve is an independent variable in order to achieve definite equilibrium. In the meantime, the equilibria of the bidding strategy about suppliers are studied when different intercepts of the bidding curve are chosen. Some examples are employed to study the Nash equilibrium strategies of suppliers with different future contracts in various bidding strategy models. The results show that the equilibria are different in different bidding strategy models, but the future contracts can effectively make spot prices decrease in all the models

  10. The future of logistical education in Poland and Ukraine: comparative analysis of students\\' opinions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halina Ryzhkova

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: A professional future is the next logical step after a student completes their chosen degree course. More frequently, even during their studies, young people seek opportunities to participate in various conferences, training courses, internships, work placements, and to travel abroad, etc. All of this has one main goal - to increase the student's attractiveness as a potential employee on the labour market. Thus, it becomes very important to ask relevant and timely questions to students about the knowledge they gain during their studies, the skills they possess and how they perceive their future work. Methods: This paper presents the views of students of logistics and related disciplines regarding their future careers. The aim of this study was to investigate the expectations, skills and visions of the future of the young generation who stand at the threshold of their careers, in two countries - Poland and Ukraine. The test method used for collecting opinions was a questionnaire. Results: This paper recognises key elements of young people's perception of the labour market. They present a brief theoretical discussion on the issue in question. The authors present the results of the comparison of attitudes of students from two universities in  Poland and in Ukraine, in four areas: Participant's Profiles; Professional Attractiveness; Obtained Knowledge and Skills; Employment. Conclusions: Contemporary logistics requires professionals of the highest calibre, which is confirmed by many respected authorities. The research results show a preview of the preferences of students of logistics and related disciplines in terms of future work, and give information about the knowledge they gained during their studies. Comparison of the two groups of participants from different countries gives the opportunity to observe the aspirations and visions of each , as well as propose recommendations aimed at signalling the possibility of improving the

  11. Rweb:Web-based Statistical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeff Banfield

    1999-03-01

    Full Text Available Rweb is a freely accessible statistical analysis environment that is delivered through the World Wide Web (WWW. It is based on R, a well known statistical analysis package. The only requirement to run the basic Rweb interface is a WWW browser that supports forms. If you want graphical output you must, of course, have a browser that supports graphics. The interface provides access to WWW accessible data sets, so you may run Rweb on your own data. Rweb can provide a four window statistical computing environment (code input, text output, graphical output, and error information through browsers that support Javascript. There is also a set of point and click modules under development for use in introductory statistics courses.

  12. Qualitative safety analysis in accelerator based systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarkar, P.K.; Chowdhury, Lekha M.

    2006-01-01

    In recent developments connected to high energy and high current accelerators, the accelerator driven systems (ADS) and the Radioactive Ion Beam (RIB) facilities come in the forefront of application. For medical and industrial applications high current accelerators often need to be located in populated areas. These facilities pose significant radiological hazard during their operation and accidental situations. We have done a qualitative evaluation of radiological safety analysis using the probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) methods for accelerator-based systems. The major contribution to hazard comes from a target rupture scenario in both ADS and RIB facilities. Other significant contributors to hazard in the facilities are also discussed using fault tree and event tree methodologies. (author)

  13. A stochastic analysis approach on the cost-time profile for selecting the best future state MA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyedhosseini, Seyed Mohammad

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In the literature on value stream mapping (VSM, the only basis for choosing the best future state map (FSM among the proposed alternatives is the time factor. As a result, the FSM is selected as the best option because it has the least amount of total production lead time (TPLT. In this paper, the cost factor is considered in the FSM selection process, in addition to the time factor. Thus, for each of the proposed FSMs, the cost-time profile (CTP is used. Two factors that are of particular importance for the customer and the manufacturer – the TPLT and the direct cost of the product – are reviewed and analysed by calculating the sub-area of the CTP curve, called the cost-time investment (CTI. In addition, variability in the generated data has been studied in each of the CTPs in order to choose the best FSM more precisely and accurately. Based on a proposed step-by-step stochastic analysis method, and also by using non-parametric Kernel estimation methods for estimating the probability density function of CTIs, the process of choosing the best FSM has been carried out, based not only on the minimum expected CTI, but also on the minimum expected variability amount in CTIs among proposed alternatives. By implementing this method during the process of choosing the best FSM, the manufacturing organisations will consider both the cost factor and the variability in the generated data, in addition to the time factor. Accordingly, the decision-making process proceeds more easily and logically than do traditional methods. Finally, to describe the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method in this paper, it is applied to a case study on an industrial parts manufacturing company in Iran.

  14. Thermal-Signature-Based Sleep Analysis Sensor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Seba

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the development of a new technique in the sleep analysis domain. Sleep is defined as a periodic physiological state during which vigilance is suspended and reactivity to external stimulations diminished. We sleep on average between six and nine hours per night and our sleep is composed of four to six cycles of about 90 min each. Each of these cycles is composed of a succession of several stages of sleep that vary in depth. Analysis of sleep is usually done via polysomnography. This examination consists of recording, among other things, electrical cerebral activity by electroencephalography (EEG, ocular movements by electrooculography (EOG, and chin muscle tone by electromyography (EMG. Recordings are made mostly in a hospital, more specifically in a service for monitoring the pathologies related to sleep. The readings are then interpreted manually by an expert to generate a hypnogram, a curve showing the succession of sleep stages during the night in 30s epochs. The proposed method is based on the follow-up of the thermal signature that makes it possible to classify the activity into three classes: “awakening,” “calm sleep,” and “restless sleep”. The contribution of this non-invasive method is part of the screening of sleep disorders, to be validated by a more complete analysis of the sleep. The measure provided by this new system, based on temperature monitoring (patient and ambient, aims to be integrated into the tele-medicine platform developed within the framework of the Smart-EEG project by the SYEL–SYstèmes ELectroniques team. Analysis of the data collected during the first surveys carried out with this method showed a correlation between thermal signature and activity during sleep. The advantage of this method lies in its simplicity and the possibility of carrying out measurements of activity during sleep and without direct contact with the patient at home or hospitals.

  15. The future of GPS-based electric power system measurements, operation and control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rizy, D.T. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Wilson, R.E. [Western Area Power Administration, Golden, CO (United States); Martin, K.E.; Litzenberger, W.H. [Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR (United States); Hauer, J.F. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Overholt, P.N. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States); Sobajic, D.J. [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States)

    1998-11-01

    Much of modern society is powered by inexpensive and reliable electricity delivered by a complex and elaborate electric power network. Electrical utilities are currently using the Global Positioning System-NAVSTAR (GPS) timekeeping to improve the network`s reliability. Currently, GPS synchronizes the clocks on dynamic recorders and aids in post-mortem analysis of network disturbances. Two major projects have demonstrated the use of GPS-synchronized power system measurements. In 1992, the Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI) sponsored Phase Measurements Project used a commercially available Phasor Measurements Unit (PMU) to collect GPS-synchronized measurements for analyzing power system problems. In 1995, Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) and Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) under DOE`s and EPRI`s sponsorship launched the Wide Area Measurements (WAMS) project. WAMS demonstrated GPS-synchronized measurements over a large area of their power networks and demonstrated the networking of GPS-based measurement systems in BPA and WAPA. The phasor measurement technology has also been used to conduct dynamic power system tests. During these tests, a large dynamic resistor was inserted to simulate a small power system disturbance.

  16. Integrated GIS-Based Site Selection of Hillside Development for Future Growth of Urban Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imtiaz Ahmed Chandio

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization is a challenging issue for developing countries, like Malaysia. Penang Island is one of the states of Malaysia selected as a study area where limited flat land exists. As a result, this would create urban environmental problems, such as unstable slopes and landslides due to uneven topography. The purpose of this study was to develop land suitability model for hillside development. Hence, this research aims land suitability analysis modelling for hillside development by using integrated GIS (Geographic Information System based MCDM (Multi-Criteria Decision Making approach. The hill land portion of Penang Island was selected for hillside site development using GIS and AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process as a MCDM method for sustainable hillside development. This study found that 15% of land was highly suitable, 27% moderately suitable, 41% less suitable, and 17% not suitable. Therefore, this research can be consistently used by the concerned authorities for sustainable hillside urban planning and development. This approach can be used as a policy tool in decision making of urban planning and development.

  17. As we fall asleep we forget about the future: A quantitative linguistic analysis of mentation reports from hypnagogia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speth, Jana; Schloerscheidt, Astrid M; Speth, Clemens

    2016-10-01

    We present a quantitative study of mental time travel to the past and future in sleep onset hypnagogia. Three independent, blind judges analysed a total of 150 mentation reports from different intervals prior to and after sleep onset. The linguistic tool for the mentation report analysis grounds on established grammatical and cognitive-semantic theories, and proof of concept has been provided in previous studies. The current results indicate that memory for the future, but not for the past, decreases in sleep onset - thereby supporting preliminary physiological evidence at the level of brain function. While recent memory research emphasizes similarities in the cognitive and physiological processes of mental time travel to the past and future, the current study explores a state of consciousness which may serve to dissociate between the two. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Experimental data base for containment thermalhydraulic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, X.; Bazin, P.; Cornet, P.; Hittner, D.; Jackson, J.D.; Lopez Jimenez, J.; Naviglio, A.; Oriolo, F.; Petzold, H.

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes the joint research project DABASCO which is supported by the European Community under a cost-shared contract and participated by nine European institutions. The main objective of the project is to provide a generic experimental data base for the development of physical models and correlations for containment thermalhydraulic analysis. The project consists of seven separate-effects experimental programs which deal with new innovative conceptual features, e.g. passive decay heat removal and spray systems. The results of the various stages of the test programs will be assessed by industrial partners in relation to their applicability to reactor conditions

  19. Constructing storyboards based on hierarchical clustering analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasebe, Satoshi; Sami, Mustafa M.; Muramatsu, Shogo; Kikuchi, Hisakazu

    2005-07-01

    There are growing needs for quick preview of video contents for the purpose of improving accessibility of video archives as well as reducing network traffics. In this paper, a storyboard that contains a user-specified number of keyframes is produced from a given video sequence. It is based on hierarchical cluster analysis of feature vectors that are derived from wavelet coefficients of video frames. Consistent use of extracted feature vectors is the key to avoid a repetition of computationally-intensive parsing of the same video sequence. Experimental results suggest that a significant reduction in computational time is gained by this strategy.

  20. Robust Face Recognition Based on Texture Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanun Srisuk

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a new framework for face recognition with varying illumination based on DCT total variation minimization (DTV, a Gabor filter, a sub-micro-pattern analysis (SMP and discriminated accumulative feature transform (DAFT. We first suppress the illumination effect by using the DCT with the help of TV as a tool for face normalization. The DTV image is then emphasized by the Gabor filter. The facial features are encoded by our proposed method - the SMP. The SMP image is then transformed to the 2D histogram using DAFT. Our system is verified with experiments on the AR and the Yale face database B.