Empirical analysis for Distributed Energy Resources' impact on future distribution network

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Han, Xue; Sandels, Claes; Zhu, Kun

2012-01-01

There has been a large body of statements claiming that the large scale deployment of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) will eventually reshape the future distribution grid operation in various ways. Thus, it is interesting to introduce a platform to interpret to what extent the power system...... operation will be alternated. In this paper, quantitative results in terms of how the future distribution grid will be changed by the deployment of distributed generation, active demand and electric vehicles, are presented. The analysis is based on the conditions for both a radial and a meshed distribution...... network. The input parameters are based on the current and envisioned DER deployment scenarios proposed for Sweden....

Future perspectives of resin-based dental materials.

Science.gov (United States)

Jandt, Klaus D; Sigusch, Bernd W

2009-08-01

This concise review and outlook paper gives a view of selected potential future developments in the area of resin-based biomaterials with an emphasis on dental composites. A selection of key publications (1 book, 35 scientific original publications and 1 website source) covering the areas nanotechnology, antimicrobial materials, stimuli responsive materials, self-repairing materials and materials for tissue engineering with direct or indirect relations and/or implications to resin-based dental materials is critically reviewed and discussed. Connections between these fields and their potential for resin-based dental materials are highlighted and put in perspective. The need to improve shrinkage properties and wear resistance is obvious for dental composites, and a vast number of attempts have been made to accomplish these aims. Future resin-based materials may be further improved in this respect if, for example nanotechnology is applied. Dental composites may, however, reach a completely new quality by utilizing new trends from materials science, such as introducing nanostructures, antimicrobial properties, stimuli responsive capabilities, the ability to promote tissue regeneration or repair of dental tissues if the composites were able to repair themselves. This paper shows selected potential future developments in the area of resin-based dental materials, gives basic and industrial researchers in dental materials science, and dental practitioners a glance into the potential future of these materials, and should stimulate discussion about needs and future developments in the area.

The design, results and future development of the National Energy Strategy Environmental Analysis Model (NESEAM)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisher, R.E.; Boyd, G.A.; Breed, W.S.

1991-01-01

The National Energy Strategy Environmental Model (NESEAM) has been developed to project emissions for the National Energy Strategy (NES). Two scenarios were evaluated for the NES, a Current Policy Base Case and a NES Action Case. The results from the NES Actions Case project much lower emissions than the Current Policy Base Case. Future enhancements to NESEAM will focus on fuel cycle analysis, including future technologies and additional pollutants to model. NESEAM's flexibility will allow it to model other future legislative issues. 7 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

Failure analysis: Status and future trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anderson, R.E.; Soden, J.M.; Henderson, C.L.

1995-01-01

Failure analysis is a critical element in the integrated circuit manufacturing industry. This paper reviews the changing role of failure analysis and describes major techniques employed in the industry today. Several advanced failure analysis techniques that meet the challenges imposed by advancements in integrated circuit technology are described and their applications are discussed. Future trends in failure analysis needed to keep pace with the continuing advancements in integrated circuit technology are anticipated

Spatio-temporal model based optimization framework to design future hydrogen infrastructure networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Konda, N.V.S.; Shah, N.; Brandon, N.P.

2009-01-01

A mixed integer programming (MIP) spatio-temporal model was used to design hydrogen infrastructure networks for the Netherlands. The detailed economic analysis was conducted using a multi-echelon model of the entire hydrogen supply chain, including feed, production, storage, and transmission-distribution systems. The study considered various near-future and commercially available technologies. A multi-period model was used to design evolutionary hydrogen supply networks in coherence with growing demand. A scenario-based analysis was conducted in order to account for uncertainties in future demand. The study showed that competitive hydrogen networks can be designed for any conceivable scenario. It was concluded that the multi-period model presented significant advantages in relation to decision-making over long time-horizons

Optimization in supply chain management, the current state and future directions: A systematic review and bibliometric analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Movahedipour, M.; Yang, M.; Zeng, J.; Wu, X.; Salam, S.

2016-07-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is finding the current state of research and identifies high-potential area for future investigation in optimization in supply chain management. Design/methodology/approach: In this paper we present Bibliometric and Network analysis to examine current state research on optimization in supply chain management to identify established and emergent research field for future investigation. The systematic research review which we used in our study have not grasp or assess by other researchers on this topic. Firstly, based on our methodology Bibliometric analysis began by identifying 1610 publications raised from scientific journals, included literatures from 1994 to March of 2016. Secondly, we applied PageRank algorithm in our data for citation analysis to indicate the significance of a publication. Thirdly, the topological decision variables analysis is done based on Louvain method for network data clustering, for this proposes we used the rigorous tools. Finding: Based on our Network analysis result, the optimization in supply chain management research can be divided into four clusters /modules that introduced fundamental skill, knowledge, theory, application and method. Research limitations/implications: We presented some limitation in our research in some fields which could allow new researchers and practitioners conduct the future research to grow up in different dimensions. Practical implications: Practitioners or policy maker usually are not familiar with these type researches so this is why mush of these survey remain in theatrical and conceptual .Future investigation needs to play in practical application domain instead stop merely in opinion. Originality/value: Based on our research, the researchers have more attention to work in conceptual analysis due to other fields but we believe that in facility location problem there many remarkable rooms still exist for future research to development. We also contributed more details in

Optimization in supply chain management, the current state and future directions: A systematic review and bibliometric analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahmood Movahedipour

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is finding the current state of research and identifies high-potential area for future investigation in optimization in supply chain management. Design/methodology/approach: In this paper we present Bibliometric and Network analysis to examine current state research on optimization in supply chain management to identify established and emergent research field for future investigation. The systematic research review which we used in our study have not grasp or assess by other researchers on this topic. Firstly, based on our methodology Bibliometric analysis began by identifying 1610 publications raised from scientific journals, included literatures from 1994 to March of 2016. Secondly, we applied PageRank algorithm in our data for citation analysis to indicate the significance of a publication. Thirdly, the topological decision variables analysis is done based on Louvain method for network data clustering, for this proposes we used the rigorous tools. Finding: Based on our Network analysis result, the optimization in supply chain management research can be divided into four clusters /modules that introduced fundamental skill, knowledge, theory, application and method. Research limitations/implications: We presented some limitation in our research in some fields which could allow new researchers and practitioners conduct the future research to grow up in different dimensions. Practical implications: Practitioners or policy maker usually are not familiar with these type researches so this is why mush of these survey remain in theatrical and conceptual .Future investigation needs to play in practical application  domain instead stop merely in opinion.    Originality/value: Based on our research, the researchers have more attention to work in conceptual analysis due to other fields but we believe that in facility location problem there many remarkable rooms still exist for future research to development

Optimization in supply chain management, the current state and future directions: A systematic review and bibliometric analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Movahedipour, M.; Yang, M.; Zeng, J.; Wu, X.; Salam, S.

2016-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is finding the current state of research and identifies high-potential area for future investigation in optimization in supply chain management. Design/methodology/approach: In this paper we present Bibliometric and Network analysis to examine current state research on optimization in supply chain management to identify established and emergent research field for future investigation. The systematic research review which we used in our study have not grasp or assess by other researchers on this topic. Firstly, based on our methodology Bibliometric analysis began by identifying 1610 publications raised from scientific journals, included literatures from 1994 to March of 2016. Secondly, we applied PageRank algorithm in our data for citation analysis to indicate the significance of a publication. Thirdly, the topological decision variables analysis is done based on Louvain method for network data clustering, for this proposes we used the rigorous tools. Finding: Based on our Network analysis result, the optimization in supply chain management research can be divided into four clusters /modules that introduced fundamental skill, knowledge, theory, application and method. Research limitations/implications: We presented some limitation in our research in some fields which could allow new researchers and practitioners conduct the future research to grow up in different dimensions. Practical implications: Practitioners or policy maker usually are not familiar with these type researches so this is why mush of these survey remain in theatrical and conceptual .Future investigation needs to play in practical application domain instead stop merely in opinion. Originality/value: Based on our research, the researchers have more attention to work in conceptual analysis due to other fields but we believe that in facility location problem there many remarkable rooms still exist for future research to development. We also contributed more details in

Multifractal spectrum analysis of nonlinear dynamical mechanisms in China’s agricultural futures markets

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shu-Peng; He, Ling-Yun

2010-04-01

Based on Partition Function and Multifractal Spectrum Analysis, we investigated the nonlinear dynamical mechanisms in China’s agricultural futures markets, namely, Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE for short) and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE for short), where nearly all agricultural futures contracts are traded in the two markets. Firstly, we found nontrivial multifractal spectra, which are the empirical evidence of the existence of multifractal features, in 4 representative futures markets in China, that is, Hard Winter wheat (HW for short) and Strong Gluten wheat (SG for short) futures markets from ZCE and Soy Meal (SM for short) futures and Soy Bean No.1 (SB for short) futures markets from DCE. Secondly, by shuffling the original time series, we destroyed the underlying nonlinear temporal correlation; thus, we identified that long-range correlation mechanism constitutes major contributions in the formation in the multifractals of the markets. Thirdly, by tracking the evolution of left- and right-half spectra, we found that there exist critical points, between which there are different behaviors, in the left-half spectra for large price fluctuations; but for the right-hand spectra for small price fluctuations, the width of those increases slowly as the delay t increases in the long run. Finally, the dynamics of large fluctuations is significantly different from that of the small ones, which implies that there exist different underlying mechanisms in the formation of multifractality in the markets. Our main contributions focus on that we not only provided empirical evidence of the existence of multifractal features in China agricultural commodity futures markets; but also we pioneered in investigating the sources of the multifractality in China’s agricultural futures markets in current literature; furthermore, we investigated the nonlinear dynamical mechanisms based on spectrum analysis, which offers us insights into the underlying dynamical mechanisms in

The influence of future-oriented technology analysis: addressing the Cassandra challenge

OpenAIRE

JOHNSTON Ron; CAGNIN Cristiano

2011-01-01

This paper is based on a series of interviews with nine leading researchers conducted during the Future-Oriented Technology Analysis International Conference held in Seville on 16–17 October 2008. Analysis of these interviews paints a picture of FTA as an increasingly important approach being adopted in many countries to address the many challenges which are emerging at this time in human history. From this are drawn implications for the community of FTA practitioners. The biggest challenge i...

Thermodynamics and process analysis for future economic scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ayres, R.U.

1995-01-01

Economists are increasingly interested in forecasting future costs and benefits of policies for dealing with materials/energy fluxes, polluting emissions and environmental impacts on various scales, from sectoral to global. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are currently popular because they project demand and industrial structure into the future, along an equilibrium path. But they are applicable only to the extent that structural changes occur in or near equilibrium, independent of radical technological (or social) change. The alternative tool for analyzing economic implications of scenario assumptions is to use Leontief-type Input-Output (I-O) models. I-O models are unable to endogenize structural shifts (changing I-O coefficients). However, this can be a virtue when considering radical rather than incremental shifts. Postulated I-O tables can be used independently to check the internal consistency of scenarios. Or I-O models can be used to generate scenarios by linking them to econometric 'macro-drivers' (which can, in principle, be CGE models). Explicit process analysis can be integrated, in principle, with I-O models. This hybrid scheme provides a natural means of satisfying physical constraints, especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This is important, to avoid constructing scenarios based on physically impossible processes. Process analysis is really the only available tool for constructing physically plausible alternative future I-O tables, and generating materials/energy and waste emissions coefficients. Explicit process analysis also helps avoid several problems characteristic of 'pure' CGE or I-O models, viz. (1) aggregation errors (2) inability to handle arbitrary combinations of co-product and co-input relationships and (3) inability to reflect certain non-linearities such as internal feedback loops. 4 figs., 2 tabs., 38 refs

Projecting the Future for Design Science Research: An Action‐Case Based Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Baskerville, Richard; Pries-Heje, Jan

2015-01-01

and theories appears to be a key challenge. In this paper we commence with a DESRIST paper from 2012 that instantiated design principles in an artifact for a bank. That paper included plans and techniques for future use of its principles (propagation), including prescriptions for a five-phase adoption process...... or theories have stimulated many actual projections. We demonstrate these concepts in a case study of propagation: a chemical manufacturer and service provider that adopted the design principles arising from that 2012 DESRIST banking-based design science research. We conclude that generalizability is too well...

GIS based analysis of future district heating potential in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Steffen; Möller, Bernd

2013-01-01

in Denmark have been mapped in a heat atlas which includes all buildings and their heat demands. This article focuses on developing a method for assessing the costs associated with supplying these buildings with DH. The analysis is based on the existing DH areas in Denmark. By finding the heat production...

JAVA based LCD Reconstruction and Analysis Tools

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bower, G.

2004-01-01

We summarize the current status and future developments of the North American Group's Java-based system for studying physics and detector design issues at a linear collider. The system is built around Java Analysis Studio (JAS) an experiment-independent Java-based utility for data analysis. Although the system is an integrated package running in JAS, many parts of it are also standalone Java utilities

Java based LCD reconstruction and analysis tools

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bower, Gary; Cassell, Ron; Graf, Norman; Johnson, Tony; Ronan, Mike

2001-01-01

We summarize the current status and future developments of the North American Group's Java-based system for studying physics and detector design issues at a linear collider. The system is built around Java Analysis Studio (JAS) an experiment-independent Java-based utility for data analysis. Although the system is an integrated package running in JAS, many parts of it are also standalone Java utilities

Anticipating the use of future things: towards a framework for prospective use analysis in innovation design projects.

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Julien; Buisine, Stéphanie; Aoussat, Améziane

2013-11-01

Anticipation of future product use is a persistent issue in User-Centered Design. In this paper, we argue that one obstacle to early integration of use analysis in innovation design is overreliance on retrospective use analysis, i.e. that which is based on clear references to existing products or activities. In contrast, innovation design projects are full of uncertainty, leading to a need for prospective analysis. After having described some limitations of prospective use analysis, we contend that creativity tools may be used to assist the anticipation of future product use, by allowing designers to approach the variability of situations of future use in a structured manner rather than by "muddling through". We illustrate the expected benefits of this approach with two case studies, and describe some prospects for future research and practice in ergonomics. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Introduction to a special section: Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision-making

OpenAIRE

Karel Haegeman; Jennifer C Harper; Ron Johnston

2010-01-01

Experiences of recent years place a premium, for governments and individuals, on being able to discern the possible shape of the future: what is likely to influence it, and what can be done to prepare for it. This special section is based on selected papers from the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis, held 16–17 October 2008 at Seville, Spain, which addressed the challenge of increasing the impact of future-oriented technology analysis on policy and dec...

Present state and future of CFD based on three-dimensional RANS analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Kwang Yong

2004-01-01

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) based on Navier-Stokes equations has been developed rapidly for several decades with the developments of high speed computers and numerical algorithms, and presently is regarded as an essential analysis tool in the engineering applications containing fluid flow and convective heat transfer. It is known that for turbulent flow the Navier-Stokes equations can be calculated precisely by Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS). However, DNS needs huge computing time even for simple low-Reynolds number flows, and thus is not practical. Large Eddy Simulation (LES) can be an alternative. But, LES also needs considerable computing time for the analysis of engineering flows, and have some problem in the methods. Therefore, the analysis methods using Reynolds-averaged Navier-stokes equations (RANS) and turbulence closure models are still regarded as the major techniques for the analysis of turbulent flows in spite of the inaccuracy of the prediction. In this presentation, the present state and the prospect of CFD based on three-dimensional RANS analysis are introduced for physical models and numerical algorithms with the engineering examples. Especially, for the analysis of two-phase flows in nuclear reactor, the recently developed techniques are also introduced. And, the presentation includes the methods of design optimization using RANS analysis and numerical optimization techniques with variety of the applications

Safety analysis - current and future regulatory challenges

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jamieson, T., E-mail: Terry.Jamieson@cnsc-ccsn.gc.ca [Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

2015-07-01

'Full text:' The current and future regulatory challenges associated with deterministic safety analysis are reviewed, including: 1. The CNSC's and safety control areas. 2. Traditional safety analysis approach. 3. Experience gained and impact. 4. Current analysis and regulatory approaches. 5. Current status. 6. Complexity and challenges In particular, the technical, regulatory and strategic aspects of these challenges are discussed. (author)

Safety analysis - current and future regulatory challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jamieson, T.

2015-01-01

'Full text:' The current and future regulatory challenges associated with deterministic safety analysis are reviewed, including: 1. The CNSC's and safety control areas. 2. Traditional safety analysis approach. 3. Experience gained and impact. 4. Current analysis and regulatory approaches. 5. Current status. 6. Complexity and challenges In particular, the technical, regulatory and strategic aspects of these challenges are discussed. (author)

The future of copper in China--A perspective based on analysis of copper flows and stocks.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ling; Cai, Zhijian; Yang, Jiameng; Yuan, Zengwei; Chen, Yan

2015-12-01

This study attempts to speculate on the future of copper metabolism in China based on dynamic substance flow analysis. Based on tremendous growth of copper consumption over the past 63 years, China will depict a substantially increasing trend of copper in-use stocks for the next 30 years. The highest peak will be possibly achieved in 2050, with the maximum ranging between 163 Mt and 171 Mt. After that, total stocks are expected to slowly decline 147-154 Mt by the year 2080. Owing to the increasing demand of in-use stocks, China will continue to have a profound impact on global copper consumption with its high import dependence until around 2020, and the peak demand for imported copper are expected to approach 5.5 Mt/year. Thereafter, old scrap generated by domestic society will occupy an increasingly important role in copper supply. In around 2060, approximately 80% of copper resources could come from domestic recycling of old scrap, implying a major shift from primary production to secondary production. With regard to the effect of lifetime distribution uncertainties in different end-use sectors of copper stocks on the predict results, uncertainty evaluation was performed and found the model was relatively robust to these changes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Charged particle activation analysis: present status and future perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chowdhury, D.P.

2006-01-01

Charged particle activation analysis is a highly sensitive nuclear analytical technique for the determination of elements at trace and ultra trace levels. CPAA involves the irradiation of samples with high energy charged particles, both light ions and heavy ions, from an accelerator in the energy range of 10 to 100 MeV. CPAA has been developed and standardized for the determination of several elements at trace levels in various types of materials using high energy ion beams from VEC machine at Kolkata. A brief review on CPAA is presented here based on our present works and its applications in future. (author)

Software-Based Challenges of Developing the Future Distribution Grid

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stewart, Emma; Kiliccote, Sila; McParland, Charles

2014-06-01

The software that the utility industry currently uses may be insufficient to analyze the distribution grid as it rapidly modernizes to include active resources such as distributed generation, switch and voltage control, automation, and increasingly complex loads. Although planners and operators have traditionally viewed the distribution grid as a passive load, utilities and consultants increasingly need enhanced analysis that incorporates active distribution grid loads in order to ensure grid reliability. Numerous commercial and open-source tools are available for analyzing distribution grid systems. These tools vary in complexity from providing basic load-flow and capacity analysis under steady-state conditions to time-series analysis and even geographical representations of dynamic and transient events. The need for each type of analysis is not well understood in the industry, nor are the reasons that distribution analysis requires different techniques and tools both from those now available and from those used for transmission analysis. In addition, there is limited understanding of basic capability of the tools and how they should be practically applied to the evolving distribution system. The study reviews the features and state of the art capability of current tools, including usability and visualization, basic analysis functionality, advanced analysis including inverters, and renewable generation and load modeling. We also discuss the need for each type of distribution grid system analysis. In addition to reviewing basic functionality current models, we discuss dynamics and transient simulation in detail and draw conclusions about existing software?s ability to address the needs of the future distribution grid as well as the barriers to modernization of the distribution grid that are posed by the current state of software and model development. Among our conclusions are that accuracy, data transfer, and data processing abilities are key to future

Research development, current hotspots, and future directions of water research based on MODIS images: a critical review with a bibliometric analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yibo; Zhang, Yunlin; Shi, Kun; Yao, Xiaolong

2017-06-01

Water is essential for life as it provides drinking water and food for humans and animals. Additionally, the water environment provides habitats for numerous species and plays an important role in hydrological, nutrient, and carbon cycles. Among the existing natural resources on Earth's surface, water is the most extensive as it covers more than 70% of the Earth. To gather a comprehensive understanding of the focus of past, present, and future directions of remote sensing water research, we provide an alternative perspective on water research using moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery by conducting a comparative quantitative and qualitative analysis of research development, current hotspots, and future directions using a bibliometric analysis. Our study suggests that there has been a rapid growth in the scientific outputs of water research using MODIS imagery over the past 15 years compared to other popular satellites around the world. The analysis indicated that Remote Sensing of Environment was the most active journal, and "remote sensing," "imaging science photographic technology," "environmental sciences ecology," "meteorology atmospheric sciences," and "geology" are the top 5 most popular subject categories. The Chinese Academy of Sciences was the most productive institution with a total of 477 papers, and Hu CM (Chinese) was the most productive author with 76 papers. A keyword analysis indicated that "vegetation index," "evapotranspiration," and "phytoplankton" were the most active research topics throughout the study period. In addition, it is predicted that more attention will be paid to research on climate change and phenology in the future. Based on the keyword analysis and in consideration of current environmental problems, more studies should focus on the following three aspects: (1) develop methods suitable for data assimilation to fully explain climate or phenological phenomena at continental or global scales rather than at

Futures Business Models for an IoT Enabled Healthcare Sector: A Causal Layered Analysis Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julius Francis Gomes

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: To facilitate futures business research by proposing a novel way to combine business models as a conceptual tool with futures research techniques. Design: A futures perspective is adopted to foresight business models of the Internet of Things (IoT enabled healthcare sector by using business models as a futures business research tool. In doing so, business models is coupled with one of the most prominent foresight methodologies, Causal Layered Analysis (CLA. Qualitative analysis provides deeper understanding of the phenomenon through the layers of CLA; litany, social causes, worldview and myth. Findings: It is di cult to predict the far future for a technology oriented sector like healthcare. This paper presents three scenarios for short-, medium- and long-term future. Based on these scenarios we also present a set of business model elements for different future time frames. This paper shows a way to combine business models with CLA, a foresight methodology; in order to apply business models in futures business research. Besides offering early results for futures business research, this study proposes a conceptual space to work with individual business models for managerial stakeholders. Originality / Value: Much research on business models has offered conceptualization of the phenomenon, innovation through business model and transformation of business models. However, existing literature does not o er much on using business model as a futures research tool. Enabled by futures thinking, we collected key business model elements and building blocks for the futures market and ana- lyzed them through the CLA framework.

Regional analysis of drought and heat impacts on forests: current and future science directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Law, Beverly E

2014-12-01

Accurate assessments of forest response to current and future climate and human actions are needed at regional scales. Predicting future impacts on forests will require improved analysis of species-level adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability to mortality. Land system models can be enhanced by creating trait-based groupings of species that better represent climate sensitivity, such as risk of hydraulic failure from drought. This emphasizes the need for more coordinated in situ and remote sensing observations to track changes in ecosystem function, and to improve model inputs, spatio-temporal diagnosis, and predictions of future conditions, including implications of actions to mitigate climate change. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cost development of future technologies for power generation-A study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neij, Lena

2008-01-01

Technology foresight studies have become an important tool in identifying realistic ways of reducing the impact of modern energy systems on the climate and the environment. Studies on the future cost development of advanced energy technologies are of special interest. One approach widely adopted for the analysis of future cost is the experience curve approach. The question is, however, how robust this approach is, and which experience curves should be used in energy foresight analysis. This paper presents an analytical framework for the analysis of future cost development of new energy technologies for electricity generation; the analytical framework is based on an assessment of available experience curves, complemented with bottom-up analysis of sources of cost reductions and, for some technologies, judgmental expert assessments of long-term development paths. The results of these three methods agree in most cases, i.e. the cost (price) reductions described by the experience curves match the incremental cost reduction described in the bottom-up analysis and the judgmental expert assessments. For some technologies, the bottom-up analysis confirms large uncertainties in future cost development not captured by the experience curves. Experience curves with a learning rate ranging from 0% to 20% are suggested for the analysis of future cost development

Development and Validation of A Nuclear Fuel Cycle Analysis Tool: A FUTURE Code

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, S. K.; Ko, W. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Yoon Hee [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2013-10-15

This paper presents the development and validation methods of the FUTURE (FUel cycle analysis Tool for nUcleaR Energy) code, which was developed for a dynamic material flow evaluation and economic analysis of the nuclear fuel cycle. This code enables an evaluation of a nuclear material flow and its economy for diverse nuclear fuel cycles based on a predictable scenario. The most notable virtue of this FUTURE code, which was developed using C and MICROSOFT SQL DBMS, is that a program user can design a nuclear fuel cycle process easily using a standard process on the canvas screen through a drag-and-drop method. From the user's point of view, this code is very easy to use thanks to its high flexibility. In addition, the new code also enables the maintenance of data integrity by constructing a database environment of the results of the nuclear fuel cycle analyses.

Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Qi; Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

2012-01-01

Under continuing policies of CO 2 emissions reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system. The development plans for nuclear power and renewable energy - particularly solar and wind power - are being reconsidered in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident. To contribute to this, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios for 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development policies, and the maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued. On the other side of the equation, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering potential energy saving measures. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate quantitatively the technological, economic and environmental impacts of different supply policy selections and demand assumptions on future electricity systems. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input–output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix, CO 2 emissions, and generation cost of the scenarios were inter-compared and analyzed. The penetration of renewable energy generation in a future electricity system in Japan, as well as its relationship with nuclear power share was uncovered. -- Highlights: ► Scenario analysis is conducted on future electricity systems under different supply policies and demand assumptions. ► Scenario analysis is conducted using a input–output hour-by-hour simulation model for real-time demand-supply balance. ► The technological, economic and environmental impacts of supply policies and demand assumptions on future electricity systems are studied. ► The maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued in the scenario analysis using the hour-by-hour simulation. ► The relationship between the penetration levels of renewable energy and nuclear power

The bacterial rhizobiome of hyperaccumulators: future perspectives based on omics analysis and advanced microscopy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanna eVisioli

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Hyperaccumulators are plants that can extract heavy metal ions from the soil and translocate those ions to the shoots, where they are sequestered and detoxified. Hyperaccumulation depends not only on the availability of mobilized metal ions in the soil, but also on the enhanced activity of metal transporters and metal chelators which may be provided by the plant or its associated microbes. The rhizobiome is captured by plant root exudates from the complex microbial community in the soil, and may colonize the root surface or infiltrate the root cortex. This community can increase the root surface area by inducing hairy root proliferation. It may also increase the solubility of metals in the rhizosphere and promote the uptake of soluble metals by the plant. The bacterial rhizobiome, a subset of specialized microorganisms that colonize the plant rhizosphere and endosphere, makes an important contribution to the hyperaccumulator phenotype. In this review, we discuss classic and more recent tools that are used to study the interactions between hyperaccumulators and the bacterial rhizobiome, and consider future perspectives based on the use of omics analysis and microscopy to study plant metabolism in the context of metal accumulation. Recent data suggest that metal-resistant bacteria isolated from the hyperaccumulator rhizosphere and endosphere could be useful in applications such as phytoextraction and phytoremediation, although more research is required to determine whether such properties can be transferred successfully to non-accumulator species.

Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations

OpenAIRE

Gagnin, Cristiano; Havas, Attila; Saritas, Ozcan

2011-01-01

This paper reflects on the potential of future-oriented analysis (FTA) to address major change and to support decision-makers and other stakeholders in anticipating and dealing with transformations. It does so by critically reflecting on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future-oriented Technology Analysis. Considering the potential roles of FTA in enabling a better understanding of co...

An Agent-Based Computational Model for China’s Stock Market and Stock Index Futures Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hai-Chuan Xu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This study presents an agent-based computational cross market model for Chinese equity market structure, which includes both stocks and CSI 300 index futures. In this model, we design several stocks and one index future to simulate this structure. This model allows heterogeneous investors to make investment decisions with restrictions including wealth, market trading mechanism, and risk management. Investors’ demands and order submissions are endogenously determined. Our model successfully reproduces several key features of the Chinese financial markets including spot-futures basis distribution, bid-ask spread distribution, volatility clustering, and long memory in absolute returns. Our model can be applied in cross market risk control, market mechanism design, and arbitrage strategies analysis.

Oil futures prices and stock management: a cointegration analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balabanoff, Stefan

1995-01-01

Futures markets are considered important to hedgers and speculators. Therefore, they are relevant to stock management. This issue is tested empirically by applying the methodology of cointegration analysis and causality testing to the monthly average of commercial (non-strategic) primary oil stocks and monthly averages of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot and futures prices for one month and three-months delivery, over the period January 1985 to June 1993. Long-and short-run relations are presented. The results support the view of a relationships between futures prices and oil stocks. (author)

Recent trends in water analysis triggering future monitoring of organic micropollutants.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Torsten C

2018-03-21

Water analysis has been an important area since the beginning of analytical chemistry. The focus though has shifted substantially: from minerals and the main constituents of water in the time of Carl Remigius Fresenius to a multitude of, in particular, organic compounds at concentrations down to the sub-nanogram per liter level nowadays. This was possible only because of numerous innovations in instrumentation in recent decades, drivers of which are briefly discussed. In addition to the high demands on sensitivity, high throughput by automation and short analysis times are major requirements. In this article, some recent developments in the chemical analysis of organic micropollutants (OMPs) are presented. These include the analysis of priority pollutants in whole water samples, extension of the analytical window, in particular to encompass highly polar compounds, the trend toward more than one separation dimension before mass spectrometric detection, and ways of coping with unknown analytes by suspect and nontarget screening approaches involving high-resolution mass spectrometry. Furthermore, beyond gathering reliable concentration data for many OMPs, the question of the relevance of such data for the aquatic system under scrutiny is becoming ever more important. To that end, effect-based analytics can be used and may become part of future routine monitoring, mostly with a focus on adverse effects of OMPs in specific test systems mimicking environmental impacts. Despite advances in the field of water analysis in recent years, there are still many challenges for further analytical research. Graphical abstract Recent trends in water analysis of organic micropollutants that open new opportunities in future water monitoring. HRMS high-resolution mass spectrometry, PMOC persistent mobile organic compounds.

Transport energy demand in Andorra. Assessing private car futures through sensitivity and scenario analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travesset-Baro, Oriol; Gallachóir, Brian P.Ó.; Jover, Eric; Rosas-Casals, Marti

2016-01-01

This paper presents a model which estimates current car fleet energy consumption in Andorra and forecasts such consumption as a reference scenario. The base-year model is built through a bottom-up methodology using vehicle registration and technical inspection data. The model forecasts energy consumption up to 2050, taking into account the fleet structure, the car survival profile, trends in activity of the various car categories, and the fuel price and income elasticities that affect car stock and total fleet activity. It provides an initial estimate of private car energy demand in Andorra and charts a baseline scenario that describes a hypothetical future based on historical trends. A local sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most sensitive input parameters and study the effect of its variability. In addition, the scenario analysis explores the most uncertain future aspects which can cause important variability in the results with respect to the Reference scenario and provides a broad estimate of potential energy savings related to different policy strategies. - Highlights: •A private car energy model is built using aggregated available data. •Andorra's current car fleet energy consumption is estimated and forecasted to 2050. •Potential energy savings have been estimated using sensitivity and scenario analysis.

Advancing School-Based Interventions through Economic Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Olsson, Tina M.; Ferrer-Wreder, Laura; Eninger, Lilianne

2014-01-01

Commentators interested in school-based prevention programs point to the importance of economic issues for the future of prevention efforts. Many of the processes and aims of prevention science are dependent upon prevention resources. Although economic analysis is an essential tool for assessing resource use, the attention given economic analysis…

DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE ANALYSIS TOOL: A FUTURE CODE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S.K. KIM

2013-10-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the development and validation methods of the FUTURE (FUel cycle analysis Tool for nUcleaR Energy code, which was developed for a dynamic material flow evaluation and economic analysis of the nuclear fuel cycle. This code enables an evaluation of a nuclear material flow and its economy for diverse nuclear fuel cycles based on a predictable scenario. The most notable virtue of this FUTURE code, which was developed using C# and MICROSOFT SQL DBMS, is that a program user can design a nuclear fuel cycle process easily using a standard process on the canvas screen through a drag-and-drop method. From the user's point of view, this code is very easy to use thanks to its high flexibility. In addition, the new code also enables the maintenance of data integrity by constructing a database environment of the results of the nuclear fuel cycle analyses.

Innovative classification of methods of the Future-oriented Technology Analysis

OpenAIRE

HALICKA, Katarzyna

2016-01-01

In the era characterized by significant dynamics of the environment traditional methods of anticipating the future, assuming the immutability of the factors affecting the forecasted phenomenon, may be in the long term ineffective. The modern approach of predicting the future of technology, taking into account the multidimensionality of the environment, is, among other things, the Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA). Designing the FTA research procedure is a complex process, both in orga...

Future Trends in Reliability-Based Bridge Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thoft-Christensen, Palle

Future bridge management systems will be based on simple stochastic models predicting the residual strength of structural elements. The current deterministic management systems are not effective in optimizing e.g. the life cycle cost of a bridge or a system of bridges. A number of important factors...

The Southern Forest Futures Project: technical report

Science.gov (United States)

David N. Wear; John G. Greis

2013-01-01

Please visit the Southern Forest Futures Project website for more information.The Southern Forest Futures Project provides a science-based “futuring” analysis of the forests of the 13 States of the Southeastern United States. With findings...

The JET Intershot Analysis: Current infrastructure and future plans

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Layne, R.; Cook, N.; Harting, D.; McDonald, D.C.; Tidy, C.

2010-01-01

The JET Intershot Analysis (Chain1) generates processed data following a pulse. Maintaining the pulse repetition rate is one of JET's key success factors, so performance of Chain1 is crucial. This paper will describe JET's experience of managing Chain1, including a description of the control system used to ensure the analysis chain runs as quickly as possible, and a discussion of JET's experience of integrating externally developed codes into a standard analysis framework. The current Chain1 infrastructure was developed in 1999 and although reliable and efficient is starting to prove costly in terms of flexibility and extensibility to meet JET's current and future needs. For this reason JET is planning to re-implement the Chain1 system. The paper will outline the work done towards this aim, and present a model of the proposed new system. Finally, possible future steps towards an integrated data production chain for JET will be discussed, and the potential applicability to next generation fusion devices will be outlined.

An analysis of China's coal supply and its impact on China's future economic growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Jianliang; Feng, Lianyong; Tverberg, Gail E.

2013-01-01

Many people believe that China's economic growth can continue almost indefinitely. For a manufacturing-based economy such as China's to continue to grow, it needs an adequate supply of inexpensive energy. To date, this energy growth has primarily come from coal, but China's indigenous coal supplies are now falling short of the amount needed to support this growth. In this situation, the status of China's future coal supply will be very important for China's future economic development. Our analysis shows that China's ultimate recoverable coal reserves equal 223.6×10 9 MT, and its production will peak between 2025 and 2030, with peak production of approximately 3.9×10 9 MT. The extent to which China can import coal in the future is uncertain. With rising coal demand, this combination is likely to create a significant challenge to China's future economic development. - Highlights: ► We analyze an issue of prime importance for the future of China's economy. ► The decline in coal supply will present a challenge to China's economic growth. ► Rising coal price will also have an adverse impact on economic growth

Time Series Analysis of Wheat Futures Reward in China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2005-01-01

Different from the fact that the main researches are focused on single futures contract and lack of the comparison of different periods, this paper described the statistical characteristics of wheat futures reward time series of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in recent three years. Besides the basic statistic analysis, the paper used the GARCH and EGARCH model to describe the time series which had the ARCH effect and analyzed the persistence of volatility shocks and the leverage effect. The results showed that compared with that of normal one,wheat futures reward series were abnormality, leptokurtic and thick tail distribution. The study also found that two-part of the reward series had no autocorrelation. Among the six correlative series, three ones presented the ARCH effect. By using of the Auto-regressive Distributed Lag Model, GARCH model and EGARCH model, the paper demonstrates the persistence of volatility shocks and the leverage effect on the wheat futures reward time series. The results reveal that on the one hand, the statistical characteristics of the wheat futures reward are similar to the aboard mature futures market as a whole. But on the other hand, the results reflect some shortages such as the immatureness and the over-control by the government in the Chinese future market.

Predictability of the future development of aggressive behavior of cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas based on decision tree analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Satomi, Junichiro; Ghaibeh, A Ammar; Moriguchi, Hiroki; Nagahiro, Shinji

2015-07-01

The severity of clinical signs and symptoms of cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas (DAVFs) are well correlated with their pattern of venous drainage. Although the presence of cortical venous drainage can be considered a potential predictor of aggressive DAVF behaviors, such as intracranial hemorrhage or progressive neurological deficits due to venous congestion, accurate statistical analyses are currently not available. Using a decision tree data mining method, the authors aimed at clarifying the predictability of the future development of aggressive behaviors of DAVF and at identifying the main causative factors. Of 266 DAVF patients, 89 were eligible for analysis. Under observational management, 51 patients presented with intracranial hemorrhage/infarction during the follow-up period. The authors created a decision tree able to assess the risk for the development of aggressive DAVF behavior. Evaluated by 10-fold cross-validation, the decision tree's accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were 85.28%, 88.33%, and 80.83%, respectively. The tree shows that the main factor in symptomatic patients was the presence of cortical venous drainage. In its absence, the lesion location determined the risk of a DAVF developing aggressive behavior. Decision tree analysis accurately predicts the future development of aggressive DAVF behavior.

Status and future transition of rapid urbanizing landscape in central Western Ghats - CA based approach

Science.gov (United States)

Bharath, S..; Rajan, K. S.; Ramachandra, T. V.

2014-11-01

The land use changes in forested landscape are highly complex and dynamic, affected by the natural, socio-economic, cultural, political and other factors. The remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS) techniques coupled with multi-criteria evaluation functions such as Markov-cellular automata (CA-Markov) model helps in analysing intensity, extent and future forecasting of human activities affecting the terrestrial biosphere. Karwar taluk of Central Western Ghats in Karnataka state, India has seen rapid transitions in its forest cover due to various anthropogenic activities, primarily driven by major industrial activities. A study based on Landsat and IRS derived data along with CA-Markov method has helped in characterizing the patterns and trends of land use changes over a period of 2004-2013, expected transitions was predicted for a set of scenarios through 2013-2022. The analysis reveals the loss of pristine forest cover from 75.51% to 67.36% (1973 to 2013) and increase in agriculture land as well as built-up area of 8.65% (2013), causing impact on local flora and fauna. The other factors driving these changes are the aggregated level of demand for land, local and regional effects of land use activities such as deforestation, improper practices in expansion of agriculture and infrastructure development, deteriorating natural resources availability. The spatio temporal models helped in visualizing on-going changes apart from prediction of likely changes. The CA-Markov based analysis provides us insights into the localized changes impacting these regions and can be useful in developing appropriate mitigation management approaches based on the modelled future impacts. This necessitates immediate measures for minimizing the future impacts.

Distributed, price-based control approach to market-based operation of future power systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jokic, A.; Bosch, van den P.P.J.; Hermans, R.M.

2009-01-01

In this paper we present, discuss and illustrate on examples the price-based control paradigm as a suitable approach to solve some of the challenging problems facing future, market-based power systems. It is illustrated how global objectives and constraints are optimally translated into time-varying

Proceedings of DAE-BRNS discussion meet on current trends and future perspectives of neutron activation analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reddy, A.V.R.; Acharya, R.; Nair, A.G.C.; Manchanda, V.K.

2006-01-01

The theme of the meet includes: Development of Neutron Activation Analysis (Naca) methods : k o -based NAA, Chemical NAA, Short-lived NAA, Prompt Gamma ray NAA (PGNAA), Fast neutron NAA using reactor and 14 MeV neutrons, Applications of NAA methods in various fields, Gamma ray spectrometry, An in-sight to data analysis in NAA, Position of NAA in comparison to other Nuclear Analytical Techniques (NATs) and Future perspectives in a panel discussion. Papers relevant to INIS are indexed separately

Analysis of the options - rationale for servomanipulator maintenance in future reprocessing plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herndon, J.N.; Hamel, W.R.

1984-04-01

The currently available maintenance systems which can be applied, in various combinations, to large-volume in-cell maintenance operations are: (1) contact, (2) overhead cranes, (3) power manipulators, (4) mechanical master/slave manipulators, and (5) servomanipulators. The requirements for reprocessing plant maintenance are reviewed, and the capabilities of remote maintenance systems are described. A basic trade-off analysis of these remote maintenance systems considering reprocessing plant requirements is given. Justification is given for selecting the overhead crane/servomanipulator-based maintenance concept as the option most desirable for future large reprocessing plant maintenance. 23 references, 6 tables

GIS-Based Planning and Modeling for Renewable Energy: Challenges and Future Research Avenues

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bernd Resch

2014-05-01

Full Text Available In the face of the broad political call for an “energy turnaround”, we are currently witnessing three essential trends with regard to energy infrastructure planning, energy generation and storage: from planned production towards fluctuating production on the basis of renewable energy sources, from centralized generation towards decentralized generation and from expensive energy carriers towards cost-free energy carriers. These changes necessitate considerable modifications of the energy infrastructure. Even though most of these modifications are inherently motivated by geospatial questions and challenges, the integration of energy system models and Geographic Information Systems (GIS is still in its infancy. This paper analyzes the shortcomings of previous approaches in using GIS in renewable energy-related projects, extracts distinct challenges from these previous efforts and, finally, defines a set of core future research avenues for GIS-based energy infrastructure planning with a focus on the use of renewable energy. These future research avenues comprise the availability base data and their “geospatial awareness”, the development of a generic and unified data model, the usage of volunteered geographic information (VGI and crowdsourced data in analysis processes, the integration of 3D building models and 3D data analysis, the incorporation of network topologies into GIS, the harmonization of the heterogeneous views on aggregation issues in the fields of energy and GIS, fine-grained energy demand estimation from freely-available data sources, decentralized storage facility planning, the investigation of GIS-based public participation mechanisms, the transition from purely structural to operational planning, data privacy aspects and, finally, the development of a new dynamic power market design.

The Southern Forest Futures Project: summary report

Science.gov (United States)

David N. Wear; John G. Greis

2012-01-01

The Southern Forest Futures Project provides a science-based “futuring” analysis of the forests of the 13 States of the Southeastern United States. With findings organized in a set of scenarios and using a combination of computer models and science synthesis, the authors of the Southern Forest Futures Project examine a variety of possible futures that could shape...

Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoette, Trisha Marie

2012-03-01

Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of the attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.

Modeling of Future Initial Teacher of Foreign Language Training, Using Situation Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maryana М. Sidun

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The article discloses the content of modeling of future initial teacher of foreign language, using situation analysis, defines the stages of modeling during the professional competence formation of future teacher of foreign language: preparatory, analytical and executive.

Analysis of future nuclear power plants competitiveness with stochastic methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feretic, D.; Tomsic, Z.

2004-01-01

To satisfy the increased demand it is necessary to build new electrical power plants, which could in an optimal way meet, the imposed acceptability criteria. The main criteria are potential to supply the required energy, to supply this energy with minimal (or at least acceptable) costs, to satisfy licensing requirements and be acceptable to public. The main competitors for unlimited electricity production in next few decades are fossil power plants (coal and gas) and nuclear power plants. New renewable power plants (solar, wind, biomass) are also important but due to limited energy supply potential and high costs can be only supplement to the main generating units. Large hydropower plans would be competitive under condition of existence of suitable sites for construction of such plants. The paper describes the application of a stochastic method for comparing economic parameters of future electrical power generating systems including conventional and nuclear power plants. The method is applied to establish competitive specific investment costs of future nuclear power plants when compared with combined cycle gas fired units combined with wind electricity generators using best estimated and optimistic input data. The bases for economic comparison of potential options are plant life time levelized electricity generating costs. The purpose is to assess the uncertainty of several key performance and cost of electricity produced in coal fired power plant, gas fired power plant and nuclear power plant developing probability distribution of levelized price of electricity from different Power Plants, cumulative probability of levelized price of electricity for each technology and probability distribution of cost difference between the technologies. The key parameters evaluated include: levelized electrical energy cost USD/kWh,, discount rate, interest rate for credit repayment, rate of expected increase of fuel cost, plant investment cost , fuel cost , constant annual

Recent advances in nanopore-based nucleic acid analysis and sequencing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shi, Jidong; Fang, Ying; Hou, Junfeng

2016-01-01

Nanopore-based sequencing platforms are transforming the field of genomic science. This review (containing 116 references) highlights some recent progress on nanopore-based nucleic acid analysis and sequencing. These studies are classified into three categories, biological, solid-state, and hybrid nanopores, according to their nanoporous materials. We begin with a brief description of the translocation-based detection mechanism of nanopores. Next, specific examples are given in nanopore-based nucleic acid analysis and sequencing, with an emphasis on identifying strategies that can improve the resolution of nanopores. This review concludes with a discussion of future research directions that will advance the practical applications of nanopore technology. (author)

Futures Business Models for an IoT Enabled Healthcare Sector: A Causal Layered Analysis Perspective

OpenAIRE

Julius Francis Gomes; Sara Moqaddemerad

2016-01-01

Purpose: To facilitate futures business research by proposing a novel way to combine business models as a conceptual tool with futures research techniques. Design: A futures perspective is adopted to foresight business models of the Internet of Things (IoT) enabled healthcare sector by using business models as a futures business research tool. In doing so, business models is coupled with one of the most prominent foresight methodologies, Causal Layered Analysis (CLA). Qualitative analysis...

Future economic outlook of Nebraska rural community pharmacies based on break-even analysis of community operational costs and county population.

Science.gov (United States)

Keast, Shellie L; Jacobs, Elgene; Harrison, Donald; Farmer, Kevin; Thompson, David

2010-09-01

There is growing concern over increasingly limited access to local health care, including pharmacies, for rural citizens of the United States. Although geographically distant from most competitors, rural pharmacies may still struggle to generate an acceptable profit to remain economically viable. Therefore, a method for calculating the economic viability for a community pharmacy to recruit a potential new owner to assume the entrepreneurial risk is an important issue to consider when evaluating rural pharmacy access. The primary objective of this study was to use a modified break-even analysis to predict the future financial potential of the current pharmacy business to attract a new owner. The secondary objective was to forecast a risk level for a Nebraska county to sustain the number of pharmacies in the country beyond current ownership. This research used data provided by pharmacies that responded to a Nebraska Medicaid cost of dispensing (COD) survey in addition to data from the US Census Bureau, US Office of Management and Budget, and the Nebraska State Board of Pharmacy. Break-even analysis was used to determine the point where the prescription volume of the pharmacy not only covered the variable and fixed costs but also maintained a reasonable profit to attract new ownership. Counties were classified into 3 risk levels based on the projected available prescription volume and the number of pharmacies in each county. Sensitivity analysis was performed on the risk levels to determine the impact of variance in projected available prescription volume on the projected future outlook for the pharmacies in each county. Regression analysis of responses to the COD survey indicated that the annual break-even prescription volume ranged from 44,790 to 49,246 prescriptions per pharmacy per annum. The number of rural Nebraska pharmacies was projected to decline from 126 to 78. The number of counties in Nebraska without a single pharmacy was projected to increase from 19 to

Analysis of Big Data in Gait Biomechanics: Current Trends and Future Directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Phinyomark, Angkoon; Petri, Giovanni; Ibáñez-Marcelo, Esther; Osis, Sean T; Ferber, Reed

2018-01-01

The increasing amount of data in biomechanics research has greatly increased the importance of developing advanced multivariate analysis and machine learning techniques, which are better able to handle "big data". Consequently, advances in data science methods will expand the knowledge for testing new hypotheses about biomechanical risk factors associated with walking and running gait-related musculoskeletal injury. This paper begins with a brief introduction to an automated three-dimensional (3D) biomechanical gait data collection system: 3D GAIT, followed by how the studies in the field of gait biomechanics fit the quantities in the 5 V's definition of big data: volume, velocity, variety, veracity, and value. Next, we provide a review of recent research and development in multivariate and machine learning methods-based gait analysis that can be applied to big data analytics. These modern biomechanical gait analysis methods include several main modules such as initial input features, dimensionality reduction (feature selection and extraction), and learning algorithms (classification and clustering). Finally, a promising big data exploration tool called "topological data analysis" and directions for future research are outlined and discussed.

Complexity analysis based on generalized deviation for financial markets

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chao; Shang, Pengjian

2018-03-01

In this paper, a new modified method is proposed as a measure to investigate the correlation between past price and future volatility for financial time series, known as the complexity analysis based on generalized deviation. In comparison with the former retarded volatility model, the new approach is both simple and computationally efficient. The method based on the generalized deviation function presents us an exhaustive way showing the quantization of the financial market rules. Robustness of this method is verified by numerical experiments with both artificial and financial time series. Results show that the generalized deviation complexity analysis method not only identifies the volatility of financial time series, but provides a comprehensive way distinguishing the different characteristics between stock indices and individual stocks. Exponential functions can be used to successfully fit the volatility curves and quantify the changes of complexity for stock market data. Then we study the influence for negative domain of deviation coefficient and differences during the volatile periods and calm periods. after the data analysis of the experimental model, we found that the generalized deviation model has definite advantages in exploring the relationship between the historical returns and future volatility.

The Soldier-Cyborg Transformation: A Framework for Analysis of Social and Ethical Issues of Future Warfare

Science.gov (United States)

1998-05-26

government agency. STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT THE SOLDIER- CYBORG TRANSFORMATION: A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL AND ETHICAL ISSUES OF FUTURE...UNCLASSIFIED USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT THE SOLDIER- CYBORG TRANSFORMATION: A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL AND ETHICAL ISSUES OF FUTURE...P) Donald A. Gagliano, M.D. TITLE: THE SOLDIER CYBORG TRANSFORMATION: A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL AND ETHICAL ISSUES OF FUTURE WARFARE

Current and Future Trends in Game-Based Learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos Vaz de Carvalho

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The first number of the second volume of the EAI Transactions on Serious Games focuses on the results presented on the European Conference on Game-Based Learning. This event, already on the 8th edition, has set standards in terms of presentation of research and practice and in the pointing out of new and future trends in the development of Game-Based Learning. As such, we are quite thrilled to be able to report them here.

Future Scope of Community Based Tourism in Nepal

OpenAIRE

Gurung, Sunita

2015-01-01

This Bachelor’s thesis is based on the tourism and community based tourism in Nepal. The purpose of selecting tourism as a main topic is to find out the future scope of CBT in Nepal. Despite having small size, Nepal holds many attractive and adventurous tourist destinations. Nepal is famous from its cultural and traditional diversity, natural beauty, trekking trails, moun-taineering and warm and welcoming hospitality. Tourism in Nepal is undoubtedly the most important source for the econo...

Interim Feed The Future Population Based Assessment of Cambodia

Data.gov (United States)

US Agency for International Development — This is the interim population based survey of Feed the Future in Cambodia for 2015. The data is split into survey modules. Modules A through C includes location...

Effect-directed analysis: Current status and future challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Seongjin; Giesy, John P.; Lee, Jung-Suk; Lee, Jong-Hyeon; Khim, Jong Seong

2016-09-01

Effect-directed analysis (EDA) has become useful for identification of toxicant(s) that occur in mixtures in the environment, especially those that are causative agents of specific adverse effects. Here, we summarize and review EDA methodology including preparation of samples, biological analyses, fractionations, and instrumental analyses, highlighting key scientific advancements. A total of 63 documents since 1999 (Scopus search) including 46 research articles, 13 review papers, and 4 project descriptions, have been collected and reviewed in this study. At the early stage (1999-2010), most studies that applied EDA focused on organic extracts of freshwater and coastal contaminated sediments and wastewater. Toxic effects were often measured using cell-based bioassays ( in vitro) and the causative chemicals were identified by use of low resolution gas chromatography with mass selective detector (GCMSD). More recently (2010-present), EDA has been extended to various matrices such as biota, soil, crude oil, and suspended solids and techniques have been improved to include determination of bioavailability in vivo. In particular, methods for non-target screenings of organic chemicals in environmental samples using cutting-edge instrumentation such as time of flight-mass spectrometry (ToF-MS), Fourier transform-ion cyclotron resonance (FT-ICR), and Orbitrap mass spectrometer have been developed. This overview provides descriptions of recent improvements of EDA and suggests future research directions based on current understandings and limitations.

Future Perspectives for Arts-Based Methods in Higher Education

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chemi, Tatiana; Du, Xiangyun

2018-01-01

practices around the world while, on the other, addressing the challenges that these practices meet. Disruptive strategies must be given opportunities for reflection and reflexive spaces, opportunities for learning and teaching the artistic languages. The chapters show that long-term, systematic...... conversations between scholars and educators are needed, and that artists have a central role in the future developments of this field. Whether professional or amateur artists is no matter, but the craft and creativity of art practices in the flesh must lead any future direction of arts-based methods....

Empirical analysis on future-cash arbitrage risk with portfolio VaR

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Rongda; Li, Cong; Wang, Weijin; Wang, Ze

2014-03-01

This paper constructs the positive arbitrage position by alternating the spot index with Chinese Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) portfolio and estimating the arbitrage-free interval of futures with the latest trade data. Then, an improved Delta-normal method was used, which replaces the simple linear correlation coefficient with tail dependence correlation coefficient, to measure VaR (Value-at-risk) of the arbitrage position. Analysis of VaR implies that the risk of future-cash arbitrage is less than that of investing completely in either futures or spot market. Then according to the compositional VaR and the marginal VaR, we should increase the futures position and decrease the spot position appropriately to minimize the VaR, which can minimize risk subject to certain revenues.

Membrane-based seawater desalination: Present and future prospects

KAUST Repository

Amy, Gary L.

2016-10-20

Given increasing regional water scarcity and that almost half of the world\\'s population lives within 100 km of an ocean, seawater represents a virtually infinite water resource. However, its exploitation is presently limited by the significant specific energy consumption (kWh/m) required by conventional desalination technologies, further exasperated by high unit costs ($/m) and environmental impacts including GHG emissions (g CO-eq/m), organism impingement/entrainment through intakes, and brine disposal through outfalls. This paper explores the state-of-the-art in present seawater desalination practice, emphasizing membrane-based technologies, while identifying future opportunities in step improvements to conventional technologies and development of emerging, potentially disruptive, technologies through advances in material science, process engineering, and system integration. In this paper, seawater reverse osmosis (RO) serves as the baseline conventional technology. The discussion extends beyond desalting processes into membrane-based salinity gradient energy production processes, which can provide an energy offset to desalination process energy requirements. The future membrane landscape in membrane-based desalination and salinity gradient energy is projected to include ultrahigh permeability RO membranes, renewable-energy driven desalination, and emerging processes including closed-circuit RO, membrane distillation, forward osmosis, pressure retarded osmosis, and reverse electrodialysis according various niche applications and/or hybrids, operating separately or in conjunction with RO.

ANALYSIS OF FOREIGN EXPERIENCE OF SYSTEMIC DEVELOPMENT OF FUTURE SOCIAL PEDAGOGISTS’ INFORMATIONAL CULTURE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oleksandr A. Ratsul

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the analysis of foreign experience of systemic development of future social pedagogists’ informational culture. A number of cultural universals are identified, each of them is treated as the core of culture. A list of components of future social pedagogists’ information culture is given. Personality traits that enable future social pedagogists to participate effectively in all kinds of work with information are characterized. Two structural levels (contents and functions in future social pedagogists’ information culture are singled out. Main functions of future social pedagogists’ information culture are defined. The structural organization of future social pedagogists’ information culture is analyzed.

Rehabilitation centers: marketing analysis and future challenges.

Science.gov (United States)

Chandra, Ashish; Stroube, William B; Willis, William K

2014-01-01

A rehabilitation center is another form of health care organization that specializes in providing care for particular conditions of patients. Patients admitted in rehab centers range from being accident victims to those suffering with a specific illness. These organizations are becoming extremely valuable in providing patient care services. However, they have not marketed themselves as aggressively as other health care organizations. This article provides an insight regarding rehab centers and examines marketing issues using a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis. It further provides some future prospects and challenges for marketers of these organizations.

Reducing Future International Chemical and Biological Dangers.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haddal, Chad [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bull, Diana L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hernandez, Patricia Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Foley, John T. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-12-01

The International Biological and Chemical Threat Reduction Program at Sandia National Laboratories is developing a 15 - year technology road map in support the United States Government efforts to reduce international chemical and biological dangers . In 2017, the program leadership chartered an analysis team to explore dangers in the future international chemical and biological landscape through engagements with national security experts within and beyond Sandia to gain a multidisciplinary perspective on the future . This report offers a hi gh level landscape of future chemical and biological dangers based upon analysis of those engagements and provides support for further technology road map development.

Chicane and wiggler based bunch compressors for future linear colliders

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raubenheimer, T.O.; Emma, P.; Kheifets, S.

1993-05-01

In this paper, we discuss bunch compressors for future linear colliders. In the past, the bunch compression optics has been based upon achromatic cells using strong sextupoles to correct the dispersive and betatron chromaticity. To preserve the very small emittances required in most future collider designs, these schemes tend to have very tight alignment tolerances. Here, we describe bunch compressors based upon magnetic chicanes or wigglers which do need sextupoles to correct the chromatic emittance dilution. The dispersive chromaticity cancels naturally and the betatron chromaticity is not a significant source of emittance dilution. Thus, these schemes allow for substantially reduced alignment tolerances. Finally, we present a detailed design for the NLC linear collider

Heading in the right direction: thermodynamics-based network analysis and pathway engineering.

Science.gov (United States)

Ataman, Meric; Hatzimanikatis, Vassily

2015-12-01

Thermodynamics-based network analysis through the introduction of thermodynamic constraints in metabolic models allows a deeper analysis of metabolism and guides pathway engineering. The number and the areas of applications of thermodynamics-based network analysis methods have been increasing in the last ten years. We review recent applications of these methods and we identify the areas that such analysis can contribute significantly, and the needs for future developments. We find that organisms with multiple compartments and extremophiles present challenges for modeling and thermodynamics-based flux analysis. The evolution of current and new methods must also address the issues of the multiple alternatives in flux directionalities and the uncertainties and partial information from analytical methods. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Analysis of blocking probability for OFDM-based variable bandwidth optical network

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Lei; Zhang, Jie; Zhao, Yongli; Lin, Xuefeng; Wu, Yuyao; Gu, Wanyi

2011-12-01

Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) has recently been proposed as a modulation technique. For optical networks, because of its good spectral efficiency, flexibility, and tolerance to impairments, optical OFDM is much more flexible compared to traditional WDM systems, enabling elastic bandwidth transmissions, and optical networking is the future trend of development. In OFDM-based optical network the research of blocking rate has very important significance for network assessment. Current research for WDM network is basically based on a fixed bandwidth, in order to accommodate the future business and the fast-changing development of optical network, our study is based on variable bandwidth OFDM-based optical networks. We apply the mathematical analysis and theoretical derivation, based on the existing theory and algorithms, research blocking probability of the variable bandwidth of optical network, and then we will build a model for blocking probability.

Future prospects of antiarrhythmic treatment based on experimental studies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janse, M. J.

1995-01-01

Based on recent experimental studies, a number of speculations about future developments are made regarding the treatment of atrial fibrillation, the problem of proarrhythmia in patients with heart failure, and the treatment of ventricular tachycardia developing during the first 6 weeks following

Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael R. Guzy

2008-06-01

Full Text Available The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon. Our exploration of alternative future scenarios suggests that policies that constrain urban growth and create incentives for farming and forest enterprises to preserve and enhance habitat can protect ecosystem resilience and services.

The Future of the Global Environment: A Model-based Analysis Supporting UNEP's First Global Environment Outlook

OpenAIRE

Bakkes JA; Woerden JW van; Alcamo J; Berk MM; Bol P; Born GJ van den; Brink BJE ten; Hettelingh JP; Langeweg F; Niessen LW; Swart RJ; United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi, Kenia; MNV

1997-01-01

This report documents the scenario analysis in UNEP's first Global Environment Outlook, published at the same time as the scenario analysis. This Outlook provides a pilot assessment of developments in the environment, both global and regional, between now and 2015, with a further projection to 2050. The study was carried out in support of the Agenda 21 interim evaluation, five years after 'Rio' and ten years after 'Brundtland'. The scenario analysis is based on only one scenario, Conventional...

The Pathogen-Host Interactions database (PHI-base): additions and future developments.

Science.gov (United States)

Urban, Martin; Pant, Rashmi; Raghunath, Arathi; Irvine, Alistair G; Pedro, Helder; Hammond-Kosack, Kim E

2015-01-01

Rapidly evolving pathogens cause a diverse array of diseases and epidemics that threaten crop yield, food security as well as human, animal and ecosystem health. To combat infection greater comparative knowledge is required on the pathogenic process in multiple species. The Pathogen-Host Interactions database (PHI-base) catalogues experimentally verified pathogenicity, virulence and effector genes from bacterial, fungal and protist pathogens. Mutant phenotypes are associated with gene information. The included pathogens infect a wide range of hosts including humans, animals, plants, insects, fish and other fungi. The current version, PHI-base 3.6, available at http://www.phi-base.org, stores information on 2875 genes, 4102 interactions, 110 host species, 160 pathogenic species (103 plant, 3 fungal and 54 animal infecting species) and 181 diseases drawn from 1243 references. Phenotypic and gene function information has been obtained by manual curation of the peer-reviewed literature. A controlled vocabulary consisting of nine high-level phenotype terms permits comparisons and data analysis across the taxonomic space. PHI-base phenotypes were mapped via their associated gene information to reference genomes available in Ensembl Genomes. Virulence genes and hotspots can be visualized directly in genome browsers. Future plans for PHI-base include development of tools facilitating community-led curation and inclusion of the corresponding host target(s). © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

[Model-based biofuels system analysis: a review].

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Shiyan; Zhang, Xiliang; Zhao, Lili; Ou, Xunmin

2011-03-01

Model-based system analysis is an important tool for evaluating the potential and impacts of biofuels, and for drafting biofuels technology roadmaps and targets. The broad reach of the biofuels supply chain requires that biofuels system analyses span a range of disciplines, including agriculture/forestry, energy, economics, and the environment. Here we reviewed various models developed for or applied to modeling biofuels, and presented a critical analysis of Agriculture/Forestry System Models, Energy System Models, Integrated Assessment Models, Micro-level Cost, Energy and Emission Calculation Models, and Specific Macro-level Biofuel Models. We focused on the models' strengths, weaknesses, and applicability, facilitating the selection of a suitable type of model for specific issues. Such an analysis was a prerequisite for future biofuels system modeling, and represented a valuable resource for researchers and policy makers.

Challenges of Future VANET and Cloud-Based Approaches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rakesh Shrestha

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs have been studied intensively due to their wide variety of applications and services, such as passenger safety, enhanced traffic efficiency, and infotainment. With the evolution of technology and sudden growth in the number of smart vehicles, traditional VANETs face several technical challenges in deployment and management due to less flexibility, scalability, poor connectivity, and inadequate intelligence. Cloud computing is considered a way to satisfy these requirements in VANETs. However, next-generation VANETs will have special requirements of autonomous vehicles with high mobility, low latency, real-time applications, and connectivity, which may not be resolved by conventional cloud computing. Hence, merging of fog computing with the conventional cloud for VANETs is discussed as a potential solution for several issues in current and future VANETs. In addition, fog computing can be enhanced by integrating Software-Defined Network (SDN, which provides flexibility, programmability, and global knowledge of the network. We present two example scenarios for timely dissemination of safety messages in future VANETs based on fog and a combination of fog and SDN. We also explained the issues that need to be resolved for the deployment of three different cloud-based approaches.

Future plans for performance analysis and maintenance/inspection optimization of shutoff rods based on the case study of Bruce Power Unit-3 Shutoff Rod 5 inspection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nasimi, E.; Gabbar, H.A.

2011-01-01

Shutdown System 1 (SDS1) is a preferred method for a quick shutdown of nuclear fission process in CANDU (CANada Deuterium Uranium) reactor units. Failure of a routine SDS1 safety test during Fall 2009 outage resulted in the need to develop and execute a new methodology for Shutoff Rod inspection and re-evaluate the known degradation mechanisms and failure modes. This paper describes the development of this methodology and the obtained results. It also proposes several alternative solutions for the future performance analysis and maintenance/inspection optimization for SDS1 Shutoff Rods based on the Bruce Power Unit-3 Shutoff Rod 5 case study. (author)

Research on biomass energy and environment from the past to the future: A bibliometric analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Mao, Guozhu; Huang, Ning; Chen, Lu; Wang, Hongmei

2018-09-01

The development and utilization of biomass energy can help to change the ways of energy production and consumption and establish a sustainable energy system that can effectively promote the development of the national economy and strengthen the protection of the environment. Here,we perform a bibliometric analysis of 9514 literature reports in the Web of Science Core Collection searched with the key words "Biomass energy" and "Environment*" date from 1998 to 2017; hot topics in the research and development of biomass energy utilization, as well as the status and development trends of biomass energy utilization and the environment, were analyzed based on content analysis and bibliometrics. The interaction between biomass energy and the environment began to become a major concern as the research progressively deepened. This work is of great significance for the development and utilization of biomass energy to put forward specific suggestions and strategies based on the analysis and demonstration of relationships and interactions between biomass energy utilization and environment. It is also useful to researchers for selecting the future research topics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling and simulation-based acquisition decision support: present & future

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Naidoo, S

2009-10-01

Full Text Available stream_source_info Naidoo1_2009.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 24551 Content-Encoding UTF-8 stream_name Naidoo1_2009.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 1 Modelling & Simulation...-Based Acquisition Decision Support: Present & Future Shahen Naidoo Abstract The Ground Based Air Defence System (GBADS) Programme, of the South African Army has been applying modelling and simulation (M&S) to provide acquisition decision and doctrine...

A Vulnerability-Based, Bottom-up Assessment of Future Riverine Flood Risk Using a Modified Peaks-Over-Threshold Approach and a Physically Based Hydrologic Model

Science.gov (United States)

Knighton, James; Steinschneider, Scott; Walter, M. Todd

2017-12-01

There is a chronic disconnection among purely probabilistic flood frequency analysis of flood hazards, flood risks, and hydrological flood mechanisms, which hamper our ability to assess future flood impacts. We present a vulnerability-based approach to estimating riverine flood risk that accommodates a more direct linkage between decision-relevant metrics of risk and the dominant mechanisms that cause riverine flooding. We adapt the conventional peaks-over-threshold (POT) framework to be used with extreme precipitation from different climate processes and rainfall-runoff-based model output. We quantify the probability that at least one adverse hydrologic threshold, potentially defined by stakeholders, will be exceeded within the next N years. This approach allows us to consider flood risk as the summation of risk from separate atmospheric mechanisms, and supports a more direct mapping between hazards and societal outcomes. We perform this analysis within a bottom-up framework to consider the relevance and consequences of information, with varying levels of credibility, on changes to atmospheric patterns driving extreme precipitation events. We demonstrate our proposed approach using a case study for Fall Creek in Ithaca, NY, USA, where we estimate the risk of stakeholder-defined flood metrics from three dominant mechanisms: summer convection, tropical cyclones, and spring rain and snowmelt. Using downscaled climate projections, we determine how flood risk associated with a subset of mechanisms may change in the future, and the resultant shift to annual flood risk. The flood risk approach we propose can provide powerful new insights into future flood threats.

Electric Vehicle Based Battery Storages for Future Power System Regulation Services

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pillai, Jayakrishnan Radhakrishna; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2009-01-01

supplying the reserve power requirements. This limited regulation services from conventional generators in the future power system calls for other new reserve power solutions like Electric Vehicle (EV) based battery storages. A generic aggregated EV based battery storage for long-term dynamic load frequency...

Multivariate analysis of attitudes on financial and other aspects of business ethics of future managers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Blaženka Knežević

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Business ethics is a set of rules by which individuals and institutions behave and conduct business in a responsible manner. It involves appropriate constraints on the pursuit of self-interest and profits, particularly when actions affect other stakeholders. Research on financial and other aspects of business ethics includes an examination of personal attitudes which give insight into ways in which people tend to behave as employees, managers, taxpayers and consumers. In this research, the standard ATBEQ questionnaire was extended with five variables covering corporate social responsibility and applied to a sample of business administration students in Croatia. The aim of the research was to identify groups of future managers based on an evaluation of their attitudes on business ethics and corporate social responsibility. The analysis was divided into two parts. In the first part, factor analysis was performed on 35 variables (attitudes relating to business ethics and corporate social responsibility. Six factors were extracted and factor scores were calculated. In the second part, hierarchical and non-hierarchical cluster analyses were conducted. Factor scores were used as input data for the cluster analysis. Firstly, the hierarchical cluster analysis was run on the calculated factor scores. According to the dendrogram, a three-cluster solution was chosen. The non-hierarchical cluster analysis was then used to improve the results of the hierarchical cluster solution. Finally, these clusters (groups of future managers were characterised according to their attitudes on financial and other aspects of business ethics and corporate social responsibility.

Digital amnesia and the future tourist

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chris Greenwood

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the phenomenon of digital amnesia and its influence on the future tourist. Design/methodology/approach – A trend paper based on environmental scanning and speculative future analysis. Findings – The phenomena of digital amnesia are established. The growth of digital platforms and the consumer’s reliance is exponential. The implications for the future tourist in terms of decision making, the influence of marketing messaging and potentially the recall and reimagining of authentic experience will be significant in the future. Practical implications – Subject to the signals of change, should consumer’s reliance on digital platforms for the storing of information and memories continue to grow this has implications on how tourism businesses engage with their customers, influence and inform their marketing and how destinations would be reimagined based on the recall of their visitors. Originality/value – The trend of digital amnesia is an established and well-documented phenomenon. The development of the trend to consider the implications for the future tourism industry based a growing dependence on digital platforms is the focus of this paper.

A Nodal Pricing Analysis of the Future German Electricity Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ozdemir, O.; Hers, J.S.; Bartholomew Fisher, E.; Brunekreeft, G.; Hobbs, B.F.

2009-05-01

The electricity market in Germany is likely to undergo several significant structural changes over the years to come. Here one may think of Germany's ambitious renewable agenda, the disputed decommissioning of nuclear facilities, but also unbundling of TSO's as enforced by European regulation. This study is a scenario-based analysis of the impact of different realizations of known investment plans for transmission and generation capacity on the future German power market while accounting for internal congestion. For this analysis the static equilibrium model of the European electricity market COMPETES is deployed, including a 10-node representation of the German highvoltage grid. Results for the multi-node analysis indicate that price divergence and congestion are likely to arise in the German market as renewable additions affecting mainly the North of Germany, the debated decommissioning of nuclear facilities in the South, and the expected decommissioning of coal-fired facilities in Western Germany appear to render current investment plans for transmission capacity insufficient. The current system of singlezone pricing for the German market may therewith be compromised. However, transmission additions would not benefit all market parties, with producers in exporting regions and consumers in importing regions being the main beneficiaries. Vertical unbundling of German power companies could increase the incentive for constructing transmission lines if generation capacity would cause Germany to be a net-importing country. In case Germany remains a net-exporting country, the effects of vertical unbundling on cross-border capacity are less clear cut.

Reservoir adaptive operating rules based on both of historical streamflow and future projections

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wei; Liu, Pan; Wang, Hao; Chen, Jie; Lei, Xiaohui; Feng, Maoyuan

2017-10-01

Climate change is affecting hydrological variables and consequently is impacting water resources management. Historical strategies are no longer applicable under climate change. Therefore, adaptive management, especially adaptive operating rules for reservoirs, has been developed to mitigate the possible adverse effects of climate change. However, to date, adaptive operating rules are generally based on future projections involving uncertainties under climate change, yet ignoring historical information. To address this, we propose an approach for deriving adaptive operating rules considering both historical information and future projections, namely historical and future operating rules (HAFOR). A robustness index was developed by comparing benefits from HAFOR with benefits from conventional operating rules (COR). For both historical and future streamflow series, maximizations of both average benefits and the robustness index were employed as objectives, and four trade-offs were implemented to solve the multi-objective problem. Based on the integrated objective, the simulation-based optimization method was used to optimize the parameters of HAFOR. Using the Dongwushi Reservoir in China as a case study, HAFOR was demonstrated to be an effective and robust method for developing adaptive operating rules under the uncertain changing environment. Compared with historical or projected future operating rules (HOR or FPOR), HAFOR can reduce the uncertainty and increase the robustness for future projections, especially regarding results of reservoir releases and volumes. HAFOR, therefore, facilitates adaptive management in the context that climate change is difficult to predict accurately.

YersiniaBase: a genomic resource and analysis platform for comparative analysis of Yersinia.

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Shi Yang; Dutta, Avirup; Jakubovics, Nicholas S; Ang, Mia Yang; Siow, Cheuk Chuen; Mutha, Naresh Vr; Heydari, Hamed; Wee, Wei Yee; Wong, Guat Jah; Choo, Siew Woh

2015-01-16

Yersinia is a Gram-negative bacteria that includes serious pathogens such as the Yersinia pestis, which causes plague, Yersinia pseudotuberculosis, Yersinia enterocolitica. The remaining species are generally considered non-pathogenic to humans, although there is evidence that at least some of these species can cause occasional infections using distinct mechanisms from the more pathogenic species. With the advances in sequencing technologies, many genomes of Yersinia have been sequenced. However, there is currently no specialized platform to hold the rapidly-growing Yersinia genomic data and to provide analysis tools particularly for comparative analyses, which are required to provide improved insights into their biology, evolution and pathogenicity. To facilitate the ongoing and future research of Yersinia, especially those generally considered non-pathogenic species, a well-defined repository and analysis platform is needed to hold the Yersinia genomic data and analysis tools for the Yersinia research community. Hence, we have developed the YersiniaBase, a robust and user-friendly Yersinia resource and analysis platform for the analysis of Yersinia genomic data. YersiniaBase has a total of twelve species and 232 genome sequences, of which the majority are Yersinia pestis. In order to smooth the process of searching genomic data in a large database, we implemented an Asynchronous JavaScript and XML (AJAX)-based real-time searching system in YersiniaBase. Besides incorporating existing tools, which include JavaScript-based genome browser (JBrowse) and Basic Local Alignment Search Tool (BLAST), YersiniaBase also has in-house developed tools: (1) Pairwise Genome Comparison tool (PGC) for comparing two user-selected genomes; (2) Pathogenomics Profiling Tool (PathoProT) for comparative pathogenomics analysis of Yersinia genomes; (3) YersiniaTree for constructing phylogenetic tree of Yersinia. We ran analyses based on the tools and genomic data in YersiniaBase and the

Predictive Technology Management for the Identification of Future Development Trends and the Maximum Achievable Potential Based on a Quantitative Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Fries

2017-07-01

Full Text Available A company’s ability to find the most profitable technology is based on a precise forecast of achievement potential. Technology Management (TM uses forecasting models to analyse future potentials, e.g. the Gartner Hype Cycle, Arthur D. Little’s technology lifecycle or McKinsey’s S-curve model. All these methods are useful for qualitative analysis in the planning of strategic research and development (R&D expenses. In a new approach, exponential and logistic growth functions are used to identify and quantify characteristic stages of technology development. Innovations from electrical, mechanical and computer engineering are observed and projected until the year 2025. Datasets from different industry sectors are analysed, as the number of active Facebook users worldwide, the tensile yield point of flat bar steel, the number of transistors per unit area on integrated circuits, the fuel efficiency per dimension of passenger cars, and the energy density of Lithium-Ion cells. Results show the period of performance doubling and the forecast for the end of the technological achievement potential. The methodology can help to answer key entrepreneurial questions such as the search for alternatives to applied technologies, as well as identifying the risk of substitution technology.

Predicting the future of sports organizations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jugoslav Vojinovic

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The current crisis of sport in Serbia justifies its prediction of real potential future of sport organizations. Sample of respondents (N=277 was divided in two subsamples: 113 professional persons involved in the management of sports clubs ("experimental" sample and 164 individuals ("control" sample. The results of structural analysis showed that experimental sample based its vision on the staff as a determinant of the system, which is providing creativity as a characteristic of the organizational culture of the club. Control subsample of respondents could indicate some characteristic variables to predict the future of clubs, but can't say a clear prediction system based on a long sequence of reasoning. We can conclude that the mentioned two sub-samples are differerent in terms of the ability to orient to predict the future of their clubs on the basis of assessment of the key variables that shape the future scenarios.

Modelling requirements for future assessments based on FEP analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Locke, J.; Bailey, L.

1998-01-01

This report forms part of a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed safety assessment. A scenario approach to performance assessment has been adopted. It is proposed that potential evolutions of a deep geological radioactive waste repository can be represented by a base scenario and a number of variant scenarios. The base scenario is chosen to be broad-ranging and to represent the natural evolution of the repository system and its surrounding environment. The base scenario is defined to include all those FEPs that are certain to occur and those which are judged likely to occur for a significant period of the assessment timescale. The structuring of FEPs on a Master Directed Diagram (MDD) provides a systematic framework for identifying those FEPs that form part of the natural evolution of the system and those, which may define alternative potential evolutions of the repository system. In order to construct a description of the base scenario, FEPs have been grouped into a series of conceptual models. Conceptual models are groups of FEPs, identified from the MDD, representing a specific component or process within the disposal system. It has been found appropriate to define conceptual models in terms of the three main components of the disposal system: the repository engineered system, the surrounding geosphere and the biosphere. For each of these components, conceptual models provide a description of the relevant subsystem in terms of its initial characteristics, subsequent evolution and the processes affecting radionuclide transport for the groundwater and gas pathways. The aim of this document is to present the methodology that has been developed for deriving modelling requirements and to illustrate the application of the methodology by

Preeclampsia and Future Cardiovascular Health: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Pensée; Haththotuwa, Randula; Kwok, Chun Shing; Babu, Aswin; Kotronias, Rafail A; Rushton, Claire; Zaman, Azfar; Fryer, Anthony A; Kadam, Umesh; Chew-Graham, Carolyn A; Mamas, Mamas A

2017-02-01

Preeclampsia is a pregnancy-specific disorder resulting in hypertension and multiorgan dysfunction. There is growing evidence that these effects persist after pregnancy. We aimed to systematically evaluate and quantify the evidence on the relationship between preeclampsia and the future risk of cardiovascular diseases. We studied the future risk of heart failure, coronary heart disease, composite cardiovascular disease, death because of coronary heart or cardiovascular disease, stroke, and stroke death after preeclampsia. A systematic search of MEDLINE and EMBASE was performed to identify relevant studies. We used random-effects meta-analysis to determine the risk. Twenty-two studies were identified with >6.4 million women including >258 000 women with preeclampsia. Meta-analysis of studies that adjusted for potential confounders demonstrated that preeclampsia was independently associated with an increased risk of future heart failure (risk ratio [RR], 4.19; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.09-8.38), coronary heart disease (RR, 2.50; 95% CI, 1.43-4.37), cardiovascular disease death (RR, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.83-2.66), and stroke (RR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.29-2.55). Sensitivity analyses showed that preeclampsia continued to be associated with an increased risk of future coronary heart disease, heart failure, and stroke after adjusting for age (RR, 3.89; 95% CI, 1.83-8.26), body mass index (RR, 3.16; 95% CI, 1.41-7.07), and diabetes mellitus (RR, 4.19; 95% CI, 2.09-8.38). Preeclampsia is associated with a 4-fold increase in future incident heart failure and a 2-fold increased risk in coronary heart disease, stroke, and death because of coronary heart or cardiovascular disease. Our study highlights the importance of lifelong monitoring of cardiovascular risk factors in women with a history of preeclampsia. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

The operating room of the future: observations and commentary.

Science.gov (United States)

Satava, Richard M

2003-09-01

The Operating Room of the Future is a construct upon which to develop the next generation of operating environments for the patient, surgeon, and operating team. Analysis of the suite of visions for the Operating Room of the Future reveals a broad set of goals, with a clear overall solution to create a safe environment for high-quality healthcare. The vision, although planned for the future, is based upon iteratively improving and integrating current systems, both technology and process. This must become the Operating Room of Today, which will require the enormous efforts described. An alternative future of the operating room, based upon emergence of disruptive technologies, is also presented.

A big data analysis of the relationship between future thinking and decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Thorstad, Robert; Wolff, Phillip

2018-02-20

We use big data methods to investigate how decision-making might depend on future sightedness (that is, on how far into the future people's thoughts about the future extend). In study 1, we establish a link between future thinking and decision-making at the population level in showing that US states with citizens having relatively far future sightedness, as reflected in their tweets, take fewer risks than citizens in states having relatively near future sightedness. In study 2, we analyze people's tweets to confirm a connection between future sightedness and decision-making at the individual level in showing that people with long future sightedness are more likely to choose larger future rewards over smaller immediate rewards. In study 3, we show that risk taking decreases with increases in future sightedness as reflected in people's tweets. The ability of future sightedness to predict decisions suggests that future sightedness is a relatively stable cognitive characteristic. This implication was supported in an analysis of tweets by over 38,000 people that showed that future sightedness has both state and trait characteristics (study 4). In study 5, we provide evidence for a potential mechanism by which future sightedness can affect decisions in showing that far future sightedness can make the future seem more connected to the present, as reflected in how people refer to the present, past, and future in their tweets over the course of several minutes. Our studies show how big data methods can be applied to naturalistic data to reveal underlying psychological properties and processes.

A Survey of Advances in Vision-Based Human Motion Capture and Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moeslund, Thomas B.; Hilton, Adrian; Krüger, Volker

2006-01-01

This survey reviews advances in human motion capture and analysis from 2000 to 2006, following a previous survey of papers up to 2000 Human motion capture continues to be an increasingly active research area in computer vision with over 350 publications over this period. A number of significant...... actions and behavior. This survey reviews recent trends in video based human capture and analysis, as well as discussing open problems for future research to achieve automatic visual analysis of human movement....

Physics-Based Aeroelastic Analysis for Future Air Vehicle Concepts Using a Fully Nonlinear Methodology

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Strganac, Thomas W

2007-01-01

Future air vehicles will be highly flexible and will include deformable sub-systems resulting in new physical interactions between a vehicle's structure, the surrounding flowfleld, and the dynamics...

Geothermal power production in future electricity markets-A scenario analysis for Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Purkus, Alexandra; Barth, Volker

2011-01-01

Development and diffusion of new renewable energy technologies play a central role in mitigating climate change. In this context, small-scale deep geothermal power has seen growing interest in recent years as an environmentally friendly, non-intermittent energy source with large technical potential. Following the first successful demonstration projects, the German geothermal industry is currently experiencing an internationally unparalleled growth. In this study we explore the factors driving this development, and the role geothermal power production could play in the future of the German electricity market. For this, we apply the scenario technique, based on literature analysis and interviews with companies operating actively in the field. Our findings highlight the importance of political support and framework conditions in the electricity market, with the best prospects in a decentralised energy system based on renewable energy sources, where high investment costs and the risk of discovery failure are balanced by the benefits of low-carbon base load power. - Research highlights: → Small scale geothermal plants could provide base load for RES based power systems. → New technologies allow its use even in geologically inactive regions like Germany. → Key factors for growth are political support and power market framework conditions. → Main investment barriers are comparatively high investment costs and discovery risks. → Scale of use depends on technological evolution and energy system structure.

TRAINING SYSTEM OF FUTURE SPECIALISTS: QUALITY CONTROL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimir A. Romanov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of the investigation is development of innovative strategy of quality control training of engineers and skilled workers (hereinafter – future specialists in educational professional organizations on the principles of social partnership.Methods. Theoretic: theoretic and methodological analysis, polytheoretic synthesis, modeling. Empirical: research and generalization of the system, process and competence – based approaches experience, experiment, observation, surveys, expert evaluation, SWOT-analysis as a method of strategic planning which is to identify the internal and external factors (socio-cultural of the organization surrounding.Results. The strategy of the development of the process of quality control training in educational professional organizations and a predictive model of the system of quality control training for future engineers and workers have been created on the analysis and synthesis of a quantitative specification of the quality, the obtained experience and success in control training of future specialists in educational professional organizations in recent economic and educational conditions.Scientific novelty. There has been built a predicative model of quality control training of future specialists to meet modern standards and the principles of social partnership; the control algorithm of the learning process, developed in accordance with the standards (international of quality ISO in the implementation of the quality control systems of the process approach (matrix-based responsibility, competence and remit of those responsible for the education process in the educational organization, the «problem» terms and diagnostic tools for assessing the quality of professional training of future specialists. The perspective directions of innovation in the control of the quality of future professionals training have been determined; the parameters of a comprehensive analysis of the state of the system to ensure the

EnerFuture: Long Term Energy Scenarios 'Understanding our energy future'. Key graphs and analysis, Enerdata - Global Energy Forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

Enerdata analyses 4 future energy scenarios accounting for 2 economic growth assumptions combined with 2 alternative carbon emission mitigation policies. In this study, a series of analyses supported by graphs assess the energy consumption and intensity forecasts in emerging and developed markets. In particular, one analysis is dedicated to energies competition, including gas, coal and renewable energies. (authors)

Metrological analysis of a virtual flowmeter-based transducer for cryogenic helium

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arpaia, P., E-mail: pasquale.arpaia@unina.it [Department of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology, University of Napoli Federico II, Naples (Italy); Technology Department, European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN), Geneva (Switzerland); Girone, M., E-mail: mario.girone@cern.ch [Technology Department, European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN), Geneva (Switzerland); Department of Engineering, University of Sannio, Benevento (Italy); Liccardo, A., E-mail: annalisa.liccardo@unina.it [Department of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology, University of Napoli Federico II, Naples (Italy); Pezzetti, M., E-mail: marco.pezzetti@cern.ch [Technology Department, European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN), Geneva (Switzerland); Piccinelli, F., E-mail: fabio.piccinelli@cern.ch [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Brescia, Brescia (Italy)

2015-12-15

The metrological performance of a virtual flowmeter-based transducer for monitoring helium under cryogenic conditions is assessed. At this aim, an uncertainty model of the transducer, mainly based on a valve model, exploiting finite-element approach, and a virtual flowmeter model, based on the Sereg-Schlumberger method, are presented. The models are validated experimentally on a case study for helium monitoring in cryogenic systems at the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN). The impact of uncertainty sources on the transducer metrological performance is assessed by a sensitivity analysis, based on statistical experiment design and analysis of variance. In this way, the uncertainty sources most influencing metrological performance of the transducer are singled out over the input range as a whole, at varying operating and setting conditions. This analysis turns out to be important for CERN cryogenics operation because the metrological design of the transducer is validated, and its components and working conditions with critical specifications for future improvements are identified.

Improving Hospital Services Based on Patient Experience Data: Current Feedback Practices and Future Opportunities.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaipio, Johanna; Stenhammar, Hanna; Immonen, Susanna; Litovuo, Lauri; Axelsson, Minja; Lantto, Minna; Lahdenne, Pekka

2018-01-01

Patient feedback is considered important for healthcare organizations. However, measurement and analysis of patient reported data is useful only if gathered insights are transformed into actions. This article focuses on gathering and utilization of patient experience data at hospitals with the aim of supporting the development of patient-centered services. The study was designed to explore both current practices of collecting and utilizing patient feedback at hospitals as well as future feedback-related opportunities. Nine people working at different hierarchical levels of three university hospitals in Finland participated in in-depth interviews. Findings indicate that current feedback processes are poorly planned and inflexible. Some feedback data are gathered, but not systematically utilized. Currently, it is difficult to obtain a comprehensive picture of the situation. One future hope was to increase the amount of patient feedback to be able to better generalize and utilize the data. Based on the findings the following recommendations are given: attention to both patients' and healthcare staff's perspectives when collecting feedback, employing a coordinated approach for collecting and utilizing patient feedback, and organizational transformation towards a patient-centric culture.

Essentials of single-cell analysis concepts, applications and future prospects

CERN Document Server

Santra, Tuhin

2016-01-01

This book provides an overview of single-cell isolation, separation, injection, lysis and dynamics analysis as well as a study of their heterogeneity using different miniaturized devices. As an important part of single-cell analysis, different techniques including electroporation, microinjection, optical trapping, optoporation, rapid electrokinetic patterning and optoelectronic tweezers are described in detail. It presents different fluidic systems (e.g. continuous micro/nano-fluidic devices, microfluidic cytometry) and their integration with sensor technology, optical and hydrodynamic stretchers etc., and demonstrates the applications of single-cell analysis in systems biology, proteomics, genomics, epigenomics, cancer transcriptomics, metabolomics, biomedicine and drug delivery systems. It also discusses the future challenges for single-cell analysis, including the advantages and limitations. This book is enjoyable reading material while at the same time providing essential information to scientists in acad...

Evaluating the Navy’s Enlisted Accessions Testing Program Based on Future Talent Needs

Science.gov (United States)

2017-03-01

NAVY’S ENLISTED ACCESSIONS TESTING PROGRAM BASED ON FUTURE TALENT NEEDS by Shereka F. Riley March 2017 Thesis Advisor: Joseph Sullivan Co...REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE EVALUATING THE NAVY’S ENLISTED ACCESSIONS TESTING PROGRAM BASED ON FUTURE TALENT ...public release. Distribution is unlimited. 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) In recent years, non-defense related industries

Multifactor valuation models of energy futures and options on futures

Science.gov (United States)

Bertus, Mark J.

The intent of this dissertation is to investigate continuous time pricing models for commodity derivative contracts that consider mean reversion. The motivation for pricing commodity futures and option on futures contracts leads to improved practical risk management techniques in markets where uncertainty is increasing. In the dissertation closed-form solutions to mean reverting one-factor, two-factor, three-factor Brownian motions are developed for futures contracts. These solutions are obtained through risk neutral pricing methods that yield tractable expressions for futures prices, which are linear in the state variables, hence making them attractive for estimation. These functions, however, are expressed in terms of latent variables (i.e. spot prices, convenience yield) which complicate the estimation of the futures pricing equation. To address this complication a discussion on Dynamic factor analysis is given. This procedure documents latent variables using a Kalman filter and illustrations show how this technique may be used for the analysis. In addition, to the futures contracts closed form solutions for two option models are obtained. Solutions to the one- and two-factor models are tailored solutions of the Black-Scholes pricing model. Furthermore, since these contracts are written on the futures contracts, they too are influenced by the same underlying parameters of the state variables used to price the futures contracts. To conclude, the analysis finishes with an investigation of commodity futures options that incorporate random discrete jumps.

Sustainability of plant-based diets: back to the future.

Science.gov (United States)

Sabaté, Joan; Soret, Sam

2014-07-01

Plant-based diets in comparison to diets rich in animal products are more sustainable because they use many fewer natural resources and are less taxing on the environment. Given the global population explosion and increase in wealth, there is an increased demand for foods of animal origin. Environmental data are rapidly accumulating on the unsustainability of current worldwide food consumption practices that are high in meat and dairy products. Natural nonrenewable resources are becoming scarce, and environmental degradation is rapidly increasing. At the current trends of food consumption and environmental changes, food security and food sustainability are on a collision course. Changing course (to avoid the collision) will require extreme downward shifts in meat and dairy consumption by large segments of the world's population. Other approaches such as food waste reduction and precision agriculture and/or other technological advances have to be simultaneously pursued; however, they are insufficient to make the global food system sustainable. For millennia, meatless diets have been advocated on the basis of values, and large segments of the world population have thrived on plant-based diets. "Going back" to plant-based diets worldwide seems to be a reasonable alternative for a sustainable future. Policies in favor of the global adoption of plant-based diets will simultaneously optimize the food supply, health, environmental, and social justice outcomes for the world's population. Implementing such nutrition policy is perhaps one of the most rational and moral paths for a sustainable future of the human race and other living creatures of the biosphere that we share. © 2014 American Society for Nutrition.

Energy futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Treat, J.E.

1990-01-01

This book provides fifteen of the futures industry's leading authorities with broader background in both theory and practice of energy futures trading in this updated text. The authors review the history of the futures market and the fundamentals of trading, hedging, and technical analysis; then they update you with the newest trends in energy futures trading - natural gas futures, options, regulations, and new information services. The appendices outline examples of possible contracts and their construction

System-of-Systems Framework for the Future Hydrogen-Based Transportation Economy: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Duffy, M.; Sandor, D.

2008-06-01

From a supply chain view, this paper traces the flow of transportation fuels through required systems and addresses the current petroleum-based economy, DOE's vision for a future hydrogen-based transportation economy, and the challenges of a massive market and infrastructure transformation.

Maritime Pre-Positioning Force-Future: Bill Payer or Sea Basing Enabler?

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Grotewold, William R

2008-01-01

.... The Maritime Prepositioning Force-Future (MPF-F) program, envisioned as a key enabler of sea basing, may be funded through further cuts in amphibious ships or fall victim to an untenable Navy ship building plan...

The study of the price of gold futures based on heterogeneous investors' overconfidence

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Wei Jiang; Pupu Luan; Chunpeng Yang

2014-01-01

Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to research and analyze the price of gold futures based on heterogeneous investors' overconfidence.Design/methodology/approach-This paper divides the traders of gold futures market into two kinds:the speculators and arbitrageurs,and then constructs a market equilibrium model of futures pricing to analyze the behaviors of the two kinds of traders with overconfidence.After getting the decision-making function,the market equilibrium futures price is attained on the condition of market clearing.Then,this paper analyzes how the overconfidence impacts on futures price,volatility of the price of gold futures and the effects on individual utility.Findings-Under different market conditions,the overconfidence psychological impacts of heterogeneous investor on the price and volatility of futures are different,sometimes completely opposite.Originality/value-In the past literature,the relationships between overconfidence and the price or volatility are positive;however,the study shows that sometimes it is positive,and sometimes it is negative

An Exploration of the System Dynamics Field : A Model-Based Policy Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rose, A.C.

2014-01-01

This report presents a first look study at the field of System Dynamics. The objective of the study is to perform a model-based policy analysis in order to investigate the future advancement of the System Dynamics field. The aim of this investigation is to determine what this advancement should look

What is the future of work based learning in VET?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Christian Helms

not to pursue an academic career. Countries with strong apprenticeship systems tend to have less youth unemployment and a smoother transition to the labour market than others. Furthermore, from a learning perspective, the outcomes of work-based training and informal learning are enhanced when they are combined...... that question the future role and organisation of work-based training in VET. The purpose of this paper is to examine these challenges based on a review of research on European VET systems and analyses of the Danish dual system of VET. In the end of the paper, some innovative solutions to these challenges...

Understanding China’s past and future energy demand: An exergy efficiency and decomposition analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brockway, Paul E.; Steinberger, Julia K.; Barrett, John R.; Foxon, Timothy J.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We complete the first time series exergy and useful work study of China (1971–2010). • Novel exergy approach to understand China’s past and future energy consumption. • China’s exergy efficiency rose from 5% to 13%, and is now above US (11%). • Decomposition finds this is due to structural change not technical leapfrogging. • Results suggests current models may underestimate China’s future energy demand. - Abstract: There are very few useful work and exergy analysis studies for China, and fewer still that consider how the results inform drivers of past and future energy consumption. This is surprising: China is the world’s largest energy consumer, whilst exergy analysis provides a robust thermodynamic framework for analysing the technical efficiency of energy use. In response, we develop three novel sub-analyses. First we perform a long-term whole economy time-series exergy analysis for China (1971–2010). We find a 10-fold growth in China’s useful work since 1971, which is supplied by a 4-fold increase in primary energy coupled to a 2.5-fold gain in aggregate exergy conversion efficiency to useful work: from 5% to 12.5%. Second, using index decomposition we expose the key driver of efficiency growth as not ‘technological leapfrogging’ but structural change: i.e. increasing reliance on thermodynamically efficient (but very energy intensive) heavy industrial activities. Third, we extend our useful work analysis to estimate China’s future primary energy demand, and find values for 2030 that are significantly above mainstream projections

The present and future on surface analysis for corrosion study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohtsuka, Toshiaki

2015-01-01

Surface analysis for corrosion study was reviewed. For the study, the in-situ analysis was desired to describe the real feature. Light i.e., electromagnetic wave from gamma rays to infrared light has been used for the in-situ measurement of the corroded surface, although various ideas should be introduced for the study. For the application of the electromagnetic waves, a suitable window material and a suitable distance between the window and specimen surface depending on the properties of the wave must be selected. Electron spectroscopy including X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and Auger electron spectroscopy (AES) is not applicable for the in-situ study and, however, it is very available for the corrosion study from the following points; elemental analysis, state analysis of the element, and microscopic analysis. In future, the tip enhance Raman scattering (TERS) for which the scanning probe microscopy (SPM) is combined with the surface enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) may be useful for the in-situ corrosion study. (author)

A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of price discovery in commodity futures markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dolatabadi, Sepideh; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Xu, Ke

straightforward examination of the adjustment coefficients. In our empirical analysis we use the data from Figuerola-Ferretti and Gonzalo (2010), who conduct a similar analysis using the usual (non-fractional) CVAR model. Our first finding is that, for all markets except copper, the fractional integration......In this paper we apply the recently developed fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model to analyze price discovery in the spot and futures markets for five non-ferrous metals (aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc). The FCVAR model allows for long memory (fractional...... to the results from the non-fractional model, we find slightly more evidence of price discovery in the spot market. Specifically, using standard likelihood ratio tests, we do not reject the hypothesis that price discovery takes place exclusively in the spot (futures) market for copper, lead, and zinc (aluminium...

Field-based detection of biological samples for forensic analysis: Established techniques, novel tools, and future innovations.

Science.gov (United States)

Morrison, Jack; Watts, Giles; Hobbs, Glyn; Dawnay, Nick

2018-04-01

Field based forensic tests commonly provide information on the presence and identity of biological stains and can also support the identification of species. Such information can support downstream processing of forensic samples and generate rapid intelligence. These approaches have traditionally used chemical and immunological techniques to elicit the result but some are known to suffer from a lack of specificity and sensitivity. The last 10 years has seen the development of field-based genetic profiling systems, with specific focus on moving the mainstay of forensic genetic analysis, namely STR profiling, out of the laboratory and into the hands of the non-laboratory user. In doing so it is now possible for enforcement officers to generate a crime scene DNA profile which can then be matched to a reference or database profile. The introduction of these novel genetic platforms also allows for further development of new molecular assays aimed at answering the more traditional questions relating to body fluid identity and species detection. The current drive for field-based molecular tools is in response to the needs of the criminal justice system and enforcement agencies, and promises a step-change in how forensic evidence is processed. However, the adoption of such systems by the law enforcement community does not represent a new strategy in the way forensic science has integrated previous novel approaches. Nor do they automatically represent a threat to the quality control and assurance practices that are central to the field. This review examines the historical need and subsequent research and developmental breakthroughs in field-based forensic analysis over the past two decades with particular focus on genetic methods Emerging technologies from a range of scientific fields that have potential applications in forensic analysis at the crime scene are identified and associated issues that arise from the shift from laboratory into operational field use are discussed

Large scale scenario analysis of future low carbon energy options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olaleye, Olaitan; Baker, Erin

2015-01-01

In this study, we use a multi-model framework to examine a set of possible future energy scenarios resulting from R&D investments in Solar, Nuclear, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), Bio-fuels, Bio-electricity, and Batteries for Electric Transportation. Based on a global scenario analysis, we examine the impact on the economy of advancement in energy technologies, considering both individual technologies and the interactions between pairs of technologies, with a focus on the role of uncertainty. Nuclear and CCS have the most impact on abatement costs, with CCS mostly important at high levels of abatement. We show that CCS and Bio-electricity are complements, while most of the other energy technology pairs are substitutes. We also examine for stochastic dominance between R&D portfolios: given the uncertainty in R&D outcomes, we examine which portfolios would be preferred by all decision-makers, regardless of their attitude toward risk. We observe that portfolios with CCS tend to stochastically dominate those without CCS; and portfolios lacking CCS and Nuclear tend to be stochastically dominated by others. We find that the dominance of CCS becomes even stronger as uncertainty in climate damages increases. Finally, we show that there is significant value in carefully choosing a portfolio, as relatively small portfolios can dominate large portfolios. - Highlights: • We examine future energy scenarios in the face of R&D and climate uncertainty. • We examine the impact of advancement in energy technologies and pairs of technologies. • CCS complements Bio-electricity while most technology pairs are substitutes. • R&D portfolios without CCS are stochastically dominated by portfolios with CCS. • Higher damage uncertainty favors R&D development of CCS and Bio-electricity

From Site Data to Safety Assessment: Analysis of Present and Future Hydrological Conditions at a Coastal Site in Sweden

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berglund, Sten; Bosson, Emma; Sassner, Mona

2013-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of present and future hydrological conditions at the Forsmark site in Sweden, which has been proposed as the site for a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. Forsmark is a coastal site that changes in response to shoreline displacement. In the considered time frame (until year 10 000 ad), the hydrological system will be affected by landscape succession associated with shoreline displacement and changes in vegetation, regolith stratigraphy, and climate. Based on extensive site investigations and modeling of present hydrological conditions, the effects of different processes on future site hydrology are quantified. As expected, shoreline displacement has a strong effect on local hydrology (e.g., groundwater flow) in areas that change from sea to land. The comparison between present and future land areas emphasizes the importance of climate variables relative to other factors for main hydrological features such as water balances

The Analysis of the Development of Futures Investment Funds in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhang Zhe Jing

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper introduces the futures investment fund, elaborates on its functions and puts forward its problems in China. It also comes up with some personal suggestions for reference based on the measures for its development.

Flood Frequency Analysis of Future Climate Projections in the Cache Creek Watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, I.; Trihn, T.; Ishida, K.; Jang, S.; Kavvas, E.; Kavvas, M. L.

2014-12-01

Effects of climate change on hydrologic flow regimes, particularly extreme events, necessitate modeling of future flows to best inform water resources management. Future flow projections may be modeled through the joint use of carbon emission scenarios, general circulation models and watershed models. This research effort ran 13 simulations for carbon emission scenarios (taken from the A1, A2 and B1 families) over the 21st century (2001-2100) for the Cache Creek watershed in Northern California. Atmospheric data from general circulation models, CCSM3 and ECHAM5, were dynamically downscaled to a 9 km resolution using MM5, a regional mesoscale model, before being input into the physically based watershed environmental hydrology (WEHY) model. Ensemble mean and standard deviation of simulated flows describe the expected hydrologic system response. Frequency histograms and cumulative distribution functions characterize the range of hydrologic responses that may occur. The modeled flow results comprise a dataset suitable for time series and frequency analysis allowing for more robust system characterization, including indices such as the 100 year flood return period. These results are significant for water quality management as the Cache Creek watershed is severely impacted by mercury pollution from historic mining activities. Extreme flow events control mercury fate and transport affecting the downstream water bodies of the Sacramento River and Sacramento- San Joaquin Delta which provide drinking water to over 25 million people.

The role of an exergy-based building stock model for exploration of future decarbonisation scenarios and policy making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

García Kerdan, Iván; Raslan, Rokia; Ruyssevelt, Paul; Morillón Gálvez, David

2017-01-01

State-of-the-art research suggests that energy systems are best evaluated using exergy analysis, as exergy represents the real value of an energy source, demonstrating it to be the only rational basis for evaluation. After discovering the lack of thermodynamic integration into stock modelling, this paper presents the development of an exergy-based building stock model. The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to investigate the impact of large-scale future energy retrofit scenarios in the English and Welsh (E&W) non-domestic sector, and secondly, to determine the potential of exergy analysis in improving sectoral efficiency and its potential implications on exergy-oriented policy making. The research explores seven different large-scale future retrofit scenarios that encompass typical, low-carbon, and low-exergy approaches. Modelling results show that by 2050, current regulations have the potential to reduce carbon emissions by up to 49.0±2.9% and increasing sector thermodynamic efficiency from 10.7% to 13.7%. On the other hand, a low-exergy oriented scenario based on renewable electricity and heat pumps is able to reduce carbon emissions by 88.2±2.4%, achieving a sectoral exergy efficiency of 19.8%. This modelling framework can provide energy policy makers with new insights on policy options based on exergy indicators and the assessment of their potential impact. - Highlights: • A bottom-up exergy-based model was developed to analyse the UK non-domestic sector. • Different low-carbon and low-exergy large-scale retrofit scenarios were assessed. • The UK non-domestic sector as a whole has an exergy efficiency of 10.7±4.06%. • Exergy-based retrofits could reduce sectoral carbon emissions by 88±2.4% for 2050. • Exergy oriented policies are required to obtain a sustainable building sector.

Multi-element analysis for environmental characterization and its future trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sansoni, B.

1987-04-01

Before starting to characterize the environment by its elemental composition, it may be useful to ask about the objective of these efforts. This includes questions about the scope of environmental protection, the definition of the environment and the limitations of its characterization by elemental composition alone. In the second part of this lecture, examples are given of the elemental composition of well analysed samples from the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere and biosphere. The third part introduces the principle of multi-element analysis and the fourth part gives examples. Finally, future aspects of modern chemical analysis are outlined with respect to the multi-element principle. (orig.)

The investor behavior and futures market volatility A theory and empirical study based on the OLG model and high-frequency data

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Yun Wang; Renhai Hua; Zongcheng Zhang

2011-01-01

Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the futures volatility could attect the investor behavior and what trading strategy different investors could adopt when they meet different information conditions.Design/methodology/approach-This study introduces a two-period overlapping generation model (OLG) model into the future market and set the investor behavior model based on the future contract price,which can also be extended to complete and incomplete information.It provides the equilibrium solution and uses cuprum tick data in SHFE to conduct the empirical analysis.Findings-The two-period OLG model based on the future market is consistent with the practical situation;second,the sufficient information investors such as institutional adopt reversal trading patterns generally;last,the insufficient information investors such as individual investors adopt momentum trading patterns in general.Research limitations/implications-Investor trading behavior is always an important issue in the behavioral finance and market supervision,but the related research is scarce.Practical implications-The conclusion shows that the investors' behavior in Chinese future market is different from the Chinese stock market.Originality/value-This study empirically analyzes and verifies the different types of trading strategies investors could;investors such as institutional ones adopt reversal trading patterns generally;while investors such as individual investors adopt momentum trading patterns in general.

The plunge in German electricity futures prices – Analysis using a parsimonious fundamental model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kallabis, Thomas; Pape, Christian; Weber, Christoph

2016-01-01

The German market has seen a plunge in wholesale electricity prices from 2007 until 2014, with base futures prices dropping by more than 40%. This is frequently attributed to the unexpected high increase in renewable power generation. Using a parsimonious fundamental model, we determine the respective impact of supply and demand shocks on electricity futures prices. The used methodology is based on a piecewise linear approximation of the supply stack and time-varying price-inelastic demand. This parsimonious model is able to replicate electricity futures prices and discover non-linear dependencies in futures price formation. We show that emission prices have a higher impact on power prices than renewable penetration. Changes in renewables, demand and installed capacities turn out to be similarly important for explaining the decrease in operation margins of conventional power plants. We thus argue for the establishment of an independent authority to stabilize emission prices. - Highlights: •We build a parsimonious fundamental model based on a piecewise linear bid stack. •We use the model to investigate impact factors for the plunge in German futures prices. •Largest impact by CO_2 price developments followed by demand and renewable feed-in. •Power plant operating profits strongly affected by demand and renewables. •We argue that stabilizing CO_2 emission prices could provide better market signals.

NASA Life Sciences Data Repositories: Tools for Retrospective Analysis and Future Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, D.; Wear, M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Fitts, M.

2011-01-01

As NASA transitions from the Space Shuttle era into the next phase of space exploration, the need to ensure the capture, analysis, and application of its research and medical data is of greater urgency than at any other previous time. In this era of limited resources and challenging schedules, the Human Research Program (HRP) based at NASA s Johnson Space Center (JSC) recognizes the need to extract the greatest possible amount of information from the data already captured, as well as focus current and future research funding on addressing the HRP goal to provide human health and performance countermeasures, knowledge, technologies, and tools to enable safe, reliable, and productive human space exploration. To this end, the Science Management Office and the Medical Informatics and Health Care Systems Branch within the HRP and the Space Medicine Division have been working to make both research data and clinical data more accessible to the user community. The Life Sciences Data Archive (LSDA), the research repository housing data and information regarding the physiologic effects of microgravity, and the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH-R), the clinical repository housing astronaut data, have joined forces to achieve this goal. The task of both repositories is to acquire, preserve, and distribute data and information both within the NASA community and to the science community at large. This is accomplished via the LSDA s public website (http://lsda.jsc.nasa.gov), which allows access to experiment descriptions including hardware, datasets, key personnel, mission descriptions and a mechanism for researchers to request additional data, research and clinical, that is not accessible from the public website. This will result in making the work of NASA and its partners available to the wider sciences community, both domestic and international. The desired outcome is the use of these data for knowledge discovery, retrospective analysis, and planning of future

Future indoor light and associated energy consumption based on professionals' visions: A practice- and network-oriented analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Franceschini, Simone; Borup, Mads; Rosales-Carreón, Jesús

2018-01-01

Through the insight and visions of Danish lighting experts, this manuscript investigates relationships between future lighting technologies and practices and the expected impacts on energy and lighting consumption. The light-emitting diode (LED) will be the dominant technology of the future smart...... light systems. Though, energy efficiency is expected to improve, new market players will appear and new lighting opportunites will be exploited that, in turn, will increase the demand for light. A rebound effect is expected. The overall impact on the future consumption of energy is uncertain, so we...

Investor preferences for oil spot and futures based on mean-variance and stochastic dominance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

H.H. Lean (Hooi Hooi); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

2010-01-01

textabstractThis paper examines investor preferences for oil spot and futures based on mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD). The mean-variance criterion cannot distinct the preferences of spot and market whereas SD tests leads to the conclusion that spot dominates futures in the downside

Benefit Analysis of Hybrid CNT/CFRP Composites in Future Aircraft Structures, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — During Phase I, Aurora Flight Sciences and N12 Technologies propose to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the benefits of hybrid composites in future aircraft...

Visions of Alternative (Unpredictable Futures and Their Use in Policy Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert Costanza

2000-07-01

Full Text Available The most critical task facing humanity today is the creation of a shared vision of a sustainable and desirable society, one that can provide permanent prosperity within the biophysical constraints of the real world in a way that is fair and equitable to all of humanity, to other species, and to future generations. Recent work with businesses and communities indicates that creating a shared vision is the most effective engine for change in the desired direction, yet most effort in "futures modeling" has focused on extrapolating past trends rather than envisioning alternative futures. Science and economics as applied to policy are in conflict more often over alternative visions of the world than purely "scientific" disagreements. Likewise, governance has gotten bogged down in mediating short term conflicts between special interests rather than its more basic role of creating broadly shared visions that can guide dispute resolution. This paper addresses the question of what policies are most appropriate for society now, given alternative visions of the future and the enormous uncertainty about the reality of the assumptions underlying these visions. Four specific visions are laid out as being representative of the major alternatives. For each vision the benefits of achieving the vision, the assumptions that would have to be true in order for it to be achieved, and the implications of it being attempted but not achieved are explored. It is argued that dealing with uncertainty about the nature of the world, its carrying capacity for humans, the impacts of climate change, and other aspects of its future can best be done at this level of future visions and assumptions, not at more detailed levels (like the parameter uncertainty in models. Application of this vision/uncertainty analysis can help us both to design the future society we want and to maximize the chances of our getting there safely.

Future-Proofing Nursing Education

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicholas Ralph

2014-11-01

Full Text Available The relevance of pre-registration programs of nursing education to current and emerging trends in healthcare and society could have a significant future impact on the nursing profession. In this article, we use a PESTEL (politics, economics, society, technology, environment, and law framework to identify significant current and future priorities in Australian healthcare. Following the PESTEL analysis, we conduct a review of the curriculum content of current Australian undergraduate pre-registration nursing curricula. The data were analyzed to determine how nursing curricula were aligned with the priorities identified in the PESTEL analysis. Findings suggest that preparation–practice gaps are evident in nursing curricula as the broad priorities identified were poorly reflected in undergraduate pre-registration programs. The study recommended (a the establishment of a nationally consistent mechanism to identify current and emerging trends in healthcare and higher education, and (b an evidence-based framework that enhances forward planning in the design of undergraduate pre-registration nursing curricula.

The Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Prices Relationship between Cotton Spot Market and Futures Market in Xinjiang

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

2011-01-01

The thesis analyzes the causal relationship between the cotton spot,and the tendency and impact of prices of futures markets in Xinjiang by using ADF test,co-integration analysis,Granger causality test and other econometric methods in order to discuss the interacted relationship between futures market prices of cotton and spot market prices since the futures of cotton in Xinjiang go public.The results of empirical analysis show that the spot market prices of cotton and the futures market prices in Xinjiang fluctuate prominently in the short run and tend to counterpoise in the long run;the futures market of cotton plays the role of leading the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang,while the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang impacts little on the futures market prices.The corresponding countermeasures are put forward.The government should continuously perfect the construction of the futures market of cotton in Xinjiang,so as to exert the function of price discovery and the function of hedging,and promote the development of cotton industry in Xinjiang.

HDAT: web-based high-throughput screening data analysis tools

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Rong; Hassan, Taimur; Rallo, Robert; Cohen, Yoram

2013-01-01

The increasing utilization of high-throughput screening (HTS) in toxicity studies of engineered nano-materials (ENMs) requires tools for rapid and reliable processing and analyses of large HTS datasets. In order to meet this need, a web-based platform for HTS data analyses tools (HDAT) was developed that provides statistical methods suitable for ENM toxicity data. As a publicly available computational nanoinformatics infrastructure, HDAT provides different plate normalization methods, various HTS summarization statistics, self-organizing map (SOM)-based clustering analysis, and visualization of raw and processed data using both heat map and SOM. HDAT has been successfully used in a number of HTS studies of ENM toxicity, thereby enabling analysis of toxicity mechanisms and development of structure–activity relationships for ENM toxicity. The online approach afforded by HDAT should encourage standardization of and future advances in HTS as well as facilitate convenient inter-laboratory comparisons of HTS datasets. (paper)

Effects of implementation of problem-based learning tutorials on fifth-year pharmacy students and future issues.

Science.gov (United States)

Sato, Atsuko; Morone, Mieko; Azuma, Yutaka

2011-01-01

At Tohoku Pharmaceutical University, problem-based learning (PBL) tutorials were incorporated into "prescription analysis" and "case analysis" for fifth-year students in 2010 with the following objectives: ① application and confirmation of acquired knowledge and skills, and acquisition of ② communication ability, ③ presentation ability, ④ cooperativeness through groupwork, and ⑤ information collecting ability. In the present study, we conducted a questionnaire survey on a total of 158 fifth-year students in order to investigate the educational benefits of PBL tutorials. The results showed that the above five objectives of PBL tutorials were being achieved, and confirmed the educational benefits expected of PBL tutorials. In contrast, it was found to be necessary to improve the contents of scenarios and lectures, time allocation regarding schedules, the learning environment, the role of tutors, and other matters. In order to maximize the educational benefits of PBL tutorials, it will be necessary in the future to continue to conduct surveys on students and make improvements to the curriculum based on survey results.

The environmental performance of current and future passenger vehicles: Life cycle assessment based on a novel scenario analysis framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bauer, Christian; Hofer, Johannes; Althaus, Hans-Jörg; Del Duce, Andrea; Simons, Andrew

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We perform Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of current and future passenger vehicles. • We include gasoline, diesel and natural gas as well as battery and fuel cell cars. • An integrated vehicle simulation framework guarantees consistency. • Only electric cars with “clean” electricity and H_2 allow for pollution mitigation. • Complete LCA is mandatory for environmental evaluation of vehicle technologies. - Abstract: This paper contains an evaluation of the environmental performance of a comprehensive set of current and future mid-size passenger vehicles. We present a comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) based on a novel integrated vehicle simulation framework, which allows for consistency in vehicle parameter settings and consideration of future technological progress. Conventional and hybrid gasoline, diesel and natural gas cars as well as battery and fuel cell electric vehicles (BEV and FCV) are analyzed, taking into account electricity and hydrogen production chains from fossil, nuclear and renewable energy resources. Our results show that a substantial mitigation of climate change can be obtained with electric passenger vehicles, provided that non-fossil energy resources are used for electricity and hydrogen production. However, in terms of other environmental burdens such as acidification, particulate matter formation, and toxicity, BEV may in some cases and FCV are likely to perform worse than modern fossil fueled cars as a consequence of emissions along vehicle and fuel production chains. Therefore, the electrification of road transportation should be accompanied by an integration of life cycle management in vehicle manufacturing chains as well as energy and transport policies in order to counter potential environmental drawbacks.

Mental Health Smartphone Apps: Review and Evidence-Based Recommendations for Future Developments.

Science.gov (United States)

Bakker, David; Kazantzis, Nikolaos; Rickwood, Debra; Rickard, Nikki

2016-03-01

The number of mental health apps (MHapps) developed and now available to smartphone users has increased in recent years. MHapps and other technology-based solutions have the potential to play an important part in the future of mental health care; however, there is no single guide for the development of evidence-based MHapps. Many currently available MHapps lack features that would greatly improve their functionality, or include features that are not optimized. Furthermore, MHapp developers rarely conduct or publish trial-based experimental validation of their apps. Indeed, a previous systematic review revealed a complete lack of trial-based evidence for many of the hundreds of MHapps available. To guide future MHapp development, a set of clear, practical, evidence-based recommendations is presented for MHapp developers to create better, more rigorous apps. A literature review was conducted, scrutinizing research across diverse fields, including mental health interventions, preventative health, mobile health, and mobile app design. Sixteen recommendations were formulated. Evidence for each recommendation is discussed, and guidance on how these recommendations might be integrated into the overall design of an MHapp is offered. Each recommendation is rated on the basis of the strength of associated evidence. It is important to design an MHapp using a behavioral plan and interactive framework that encourages the user to engage with the app; thus, it may not be possible to incorporate all 16 recommendations into a single MHapp. Randomized controlled trials are required to validate future MHapps and the principles upon which they are designed, and to further investigate the recommendations presented in this review. Effective MHapps are required to help prevent mental health problems and to ease the burden on health systems.

The Impact of Future Demographic Trends in Europe, 2005-2050

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marek Kupiszewski

2008-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of the paper is to examine the future of populations within the Council of Europe member states, identify the main trends and discuss their policy implications. The analysis focuses on the impact that future demographic trends will have on the following social domains: education, the labour market, health care and care of the elderly and social protection. The study aims to be policy-oriented and to provide an overview of future demographic trends for 2005-2050 in the Council of Europe member states, as well as presenting an analysis related to selected policies and an interpretation of these trends. The analysis of population dynamics in the coming 45 years is based on the United Nations population projection of 2005.

Investment in the future electricity system - An agent-based modelling approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kraan, O.; Kramer, G. J.; Nikolic, I.

2018-01-01

Now that renewable technologies are both technically and commercially mature, the imperfect rational behaviour of investors becomes a critical factor in the future success of the energy transition. Here, we take an agent-based approach to model investor decision making in the electricity sector

Work ability score and future work ability as predictors of register-based disability pension and long-term sickness absence: A three-year follow-up study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kinnunen, Ulla; Nätti, Jouko

2018-05-01

We investigated two single items of the Work Ability Index - work ability score, and future work ability - as predictors of register-based disability pension and long-term sickness absence over a three-year follow-up. Survey responses of 11,131 Finnish employees were linked to pension and long-term (more than 10 days) sickness absence register data by Statistics Finland. Work ability score was divided into poor (0-5), moderate (6-7) and good/excellent (8-10) and future work ability into poor (1-2) and good (3) work ability at baseline. Cox proportional hazard regressions were used in the analysis of disability pension, and a negative binomial model in the analysis of long-term sickness absence. The results were adjusted for several background, work- and health-related covariates. Compared with those with good/excellent work ability scores, the hazard ratios of disability pension after adjusting for all covariates were 9.84 (95% CI 6.68-14.49) for poor and 2.25 (CI 95% 1.51-3.35) for moderate work ability score. For future work ability, the hazard ratio was 8.19 (95% CI 4.71-14.23) among those with poor future work ability. The incidence rate ratios of accumulated long-term sickness absence days were 3.08 (95% CI 2.19-4.32) and 1.59 (95% CI 1.32-1.92) for poor and moderate work ability scores, and 1.51 (95% CI 0.97-2.36) for poor future work ability. The single items of work ability score and future work ability predicted register-based disability pension equally well, but work ability score was a better predictor of register-based long-term sickness absence days than future work ability in a three-year follow-up. Both items seem to be of use especially when examining the risk of poor work ability for disability but also for long sick leave.

Rising to the challenges-Reflections on Future-oriented Technology Analysis

OpenAIRE

Georghiou, Luke; Cassingena Harper, Jennifer

2013-01-01

Drawing upon the presentations made at the fourth conference on Future-oriented Technology Analysis, this essay reflects on the implications of the current period of instability and discontinuity for the practice of FTA or foresight. In the past the demand environment for foresight on research and innovation policy favoured application to priority-setting and articulation of demand. New tendencies include a heightened search for breakthrough science and a focus on grand societal challenges. B...

Investment guidelines based on future growth indicators / Christo Vorster

OpenAIRE

Vorster, Christo

2008-01-01

The stock market is cited to be one of the greatest tools ever invented for building wealth. The relative small size of the ideal portfolio, consisting of 10 to 12 shares, reiterates the fact that share selection is absolutely crucial to portfolio success and ultimately the creation of personal financial independence. The main objective of this study is to research, identify and develop investment guidelines based on possible future growth indicators of organisations listed on the JSE. ...

Wireless Technology Use Case Requirement Analysis for Future Space Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Abedi, Ali; Wilkerson, DeLisa

2016-01-01

This report presents various use case scenarios for wireless technology -including radio frequency (RF), optical, and acoustic- and studies requirements and boundary conditions in each scenario. The results of this study can be used to prioritize technology evaluation and development and in the long run help in development of a roadmap for future use of wireless technology. The presented scenarios cover the following application areas: (i) Space Vehicles (manned/unmanned), (ii) Satellites and Payloads, (iii) Surface Explorations, (iv) Ground Systems, and (v) Habitats. The requirement analysis covers two parallel set of conditions. The first set includes the environmental conditions such as temperature, radiation, noise/interference, wireless channel characteristics and accessibility. The second set of requirements are dictated by the application and may include parameters such as latency, throughput (effective data rate), error tolerance, and reliability. This report provides a comprehensive overview of all requirements from both perspectives and details their effects on wireless system reliability and network design. Application area examples are based on 2015 NASA Technology roadmap with specific focus on technology areas: TA 2.4, 3.3, 5.2, 5.5, 6.4, 7.4, and 10.4 sections that might benefit from wireless technology.

METHODOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF STUDYING THE PROBLEM OF PERCEPTION IN FUTURE MUSIC TEACHERS’ PROFESSIONAL TRAINING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhang Bo

2017-04-01

Full Text Available In the article the methodological analysis of problem of perception in future music teachers’ professional training is presented. The author of the article analyses works of outstanding scientists in philosophy, psychology, and art education. The hierarchical system of musical perception options is revealed. A methodological foundation is supported by consideration of the following modern research in specialty – a theory and methodology of musical study that gives proper appearance and circumstantiality to the presented material. Studying the vocal and choral researches in the field of forming the valued music art perception by future music teachers, an author sets an aim to present the methodological analysis of the problem of perception in future music teachers’ professional training. Realization of the system approach to updating the problem of forming the valued music art perception of future music teachers while being trained to vocal and choral work with senior pupils extends their artistic awareness; contributes to distinguishing art works, phenomena; to seeing their properties; to providing orientation in the informative content of music art works. The special attention is paid to revealing methodological principles of perception of category research in the aspect of the valued understanding images of music art works. As a result of analysing scientific sources on the issue of voice production the author of the article finds out that perception is densely related to transformation of external information, conditioning for forming images, operating category attention, memory, thinking, and emotions. The features of perception of maintaining vocal and choral studies and students’ extrapolation are analysed in the process of future professional activity with senior pupils in the aspects of perception and transformation of musical and intonation information, analysis, object perception, and interpretation in accordance with future

Sensor Network-Based and User-Friendly User Location Discovery for Future Smart Homes.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahvar, Ehsan; Lee, Gyu Myoung; Han, Son N; Crespi, Noel; Khan, Imran

2016-06-27

User location is crucial context information for future smart homes where many location based services will be proposed. This location necessarily means that User Location Discovery (ULD) will play an important role in future smart homes. Concerns about privacy and the need to carry a mobile or a tag device within a smart home currently make conventional ULD systems uncomfortable for users. Future smart homes will need a ULD system to consider these challenges. This paper addresses the design of such a ULD system for context-aware services in future smart homes stressing the following challenges: (i) users' privacy; (ii) device-/tag-free; and (iii) fault tolerance and accuracy. On the other hand, emerging new technologies, such as the Internet of Things, embedded systems, intelligent devices and machine-to-machine communication, are penetrating into our daily life with more and more sensors available for use in our homes. Considering this opportunity, we propose a ULD system that is capitalizing on the prevalence of sensors for the home while satisfying the aforementioned challenges. The proposed sensor network-based and user-friendly ULD system relies on different types of inexpensive sensors, as well as a context broker with a fuzzy-based decision-maker. The context broker receives context information from different types of sensors and evaluates that data using the fuzzy set theory. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed system by illustrating a use case, utilizing both an analytical model and simulation.

Sensor Network-Based and User-Friendly User Location Discovery for Future Smart Homes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ehsan Ahvar

2016-06-01

Full Text Available User location is crucial context information for future smart homes where many location based services will be proposed. This location necessarily means that User Location Discovery (ULD will play an important role in future smart homes. Concerns about privacy and the need to carry a mobile or a tag device within a smart home currently make conventional ULD systems uncomfortable for users. Future smart homes will need a ULD system to consider these challenges. This paper addresses the design of such a ULD system for context-aware services in future smart homes stressing the following challenges: (i users’ privacy; (ii device-/tag-free; and (iii fault tolerance and accuracy. On the other hand, emerging new technologies, such as the Internet of Things, embedded systems, intelligent devices and machine-to-machine communication, are penetrating into our daily life with more and more sensors available for use in our homes. Considering this opportunity, we propose a ULD system that is capitalizing on the prevalence of sensors for the home while satisfying the aforementioned challenges. The proposed sensor network-based and user-friendly ULD system relies on different types of inexpensive sensors, as well as a context broker with a fuzzy-based decision-maker. The context broker receives context information from different types of sensors and evaluates that data using the fuzzy set theory. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed system by illustrating a use case, utilizing both an analytical model and simulation.

Exploring JavaScript and ROOT technologies to create Web-based ATLAS analysis and monitoring tools

CERN Document Server

Sanchez, Arturo; The ATLAS collaboration

2015-01-01

We explore the potentialities of current web applications to create online interfaces that allow the visualization, interaction and real physics cut-based analysis and monitoring of processes trough a web browser. The project consists in the initial development of web-based and cloud computing services to allow students and researches to perform fast and very useful cut-based analysis on a browser, reading and using real data and official Monte-Carlo simulations stored in ATLAS computing facilities. Several tools are considered: ROOT, JavaScript and HTML. Our study case is the current cut-based H->ZZ->llqq analysis of the ATLAS experiment. Preliminary but satisfactory results have been obtained online; this presentation describes the tests and plans and future upgrades.

A Comparative Analysis of User Preferences for for Major Internet Based Education Media in China

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Chunyang; Jiang, Yanqing

2014-01-01

Internet based education media are developing at an amazing rate and being seen as an upstart that will likely take the place of traditional education means worldwide in the future. This paper presents the results of a comparative analysis on user preferences for four major categories of internet-based media used in China. In this paper, we first…

Breath analysis based on micropreconcentrator for early cancer diagnosis

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Sang-Seok

2018-02-01

We are developing micropreconcentrators based on micro/nanotechnology to detect trace levels of volatile organic compound (VOC) gases contained in human and canine exhaled breath. The possibility of using exhaled VOC gases as biomarkers for various cancer diagnoses has been previously discussed. For early cancer diagnosis, detection of trace levels of VOC gas is indispensable. Using micropreconcentrators based on MEMS technology or nanotechnology is very promising for detection of VOC gas. A micropreconcentrator based breath analysis technique also has advantages from the viewpoints of cost performance and availability for various cancers diagnosis. In this paper, we introduce design, fabrication and evaluation results of our MEMS and nanotechnology based micropreconcentrators. In the MEMS based device, we propose a flower leaf type Si microstructure, and its shape and configuration are optimized quantitatively by finite element method simulation. The nanotechnology based micropreconcentrator consists of carbon nanotube (CNT) structures. As a result, we achieve ppb level VOC gas detection with our micropreconcentrators and usual gas chromatography system that can detect on the order of ppm VOC in gas samples. In performance evaluation, we also confirm that the CNT based micropreconcentrator shows 115 times better concentration ratio than that of the Si based micropreconcentrator. Moreover, we discuss a commercialization idea for new cancer diagnosis using breath analysis. Future work and preliminary clinical testing in dogs is also discussed.

Future Orientation in Times of Threat and Challenge: How Resilient Adolescents Construct Their Future

Science.gov (United States)

Seginer, Rachel

2008-01-01

Drawing on the importance of future orientation for adolescent development this analysis presents a model describing how future orientation is affected by high challenge (or resilience) in the face of political violence. The analysis consists of three parts. The first two present future orientation conceptualization and the psychological processes…

Research of second harmonic generation images based on texture analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yao; Li, Yan; Gong, Haiming; Zhu, Xiaoqin; Huang, Zufang; Chen, Guannan

2014-09-01

Texture analysis plays a crucial role in identifying objects or regions of interest in an image. It has been applied to a variety of medical image processing, ranging from the detection of disease and the segmentation of specific anatomical structures, to differentiation between healthy and pathological tissues. Second harmonic generation (SHG) microscopy as a potential noninvasive tool for imaging biological tissues has been widely used in medicine, with reduced phototoxicity and photobleaching. In this paper, we clarified the principles of texture analysis including statistical, transform, structural and model-based methods and gave examples of its applications, reviewing studies of the technique. Moreover, we tried to apply texture analysis to the SHG images for the differentiation of human skin scar tissues. Texture analysis method based on local binary pattern (LBP) and wavelet transform was used to extract texture features of SHG images from collagen in normal and abnormal scars, and then the scar SHG images were classified into normal or abnormal ones. Compared with other texture analysis methods with respect to the receiver operating characteristic analysis, LBP combined with wavelet transform was demonstrated to achieve higher accuracy. It can provide a new way for clinical diagnosis of scar types. At last, future development of texture analysis in SHG images were discussed.

GIS Based Analysis of future district heating potential in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Steffen; Möller, Bernd

2012-01-01

and their heat demand has in recent years been assessed in a heat atlas including all buildings in Denmark. The focus in this article is to further develop a method for assessing the costs associated with supplying these buildings with DH. The analysis takes departure in the existing DH areas in Denmark...

Why does Colombia lack agricultural commodity futures?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pablo Moreno-Alemay

2015-11-01

Full Text Available This article explores the reasons why futures contracts are not traded as an alternative to price hedging for agricultural goods in Colombia. Based on surveys, interviews and statistical analysis, this study identified that conceptual gaps in contract negotiation, lack of consensus in the agricultural sector regarding the use of financial mechanisms and the sector’s infrequent contact with Colombia’s financial institutions, are the main reasons why a futures contracts market has not emerged.

Developing a vision and strategic action plan for future community-based residency training.

Science.gov (United States)

Skelton, Jann B; Owen, James A

2016-01-01

The Community Pharmacy Residency Program (CPRP) Planning Committee convened to develop a vision and a strategic action plan for the advancement of community pharmacy residency training. Aligned with the profession's efforts to achieve provider status and expand access to care, the Future Vision and Action Plan for Community-based Residency Training will provide guidance, direction, and a strategic action plan for community-based residency training to ensure that the future needs of community-based pharmacist practitioners are met. National thought leaders, selected because of their leadership in pharmacy practice, academia, and residency training, served on the planning committee. The committee conducted a series of conference calls and an in-person strategic planning meeting held on January 13-14, 2015. Outcomes from the discussions were supplemented with related information from the literature. Results of a survey of CPRP directors and preceptors also informed the planning process. The vision and strategic action plan for community-based residency training is intended to advance training to meet the emerging needs of patients in communities that are served by the pharmacy profession. The group anticipated the advanced skills required of pharmacists serving as community-based pharmacist practitioners and the likely education, training and competencies required by future residency graduates in order to deliver these services. The vision reflects a transformation of community residency training, from CPRPs to community-based residency training, and embodies the concept that residency training should be primarily focused on training the individual pharmacist practitioner based on the needs of patients served within the community, and not on the physical location where pharmacy services are provided. The development of a vision statement, core values statements, and strategic action plan will provide support, guidance, and direction to the profession of pharmacy to

Future of photorefractive based holographic 3D display

Science.gov (United States)

Blanche, P.-A.; Bablumian, A.; Voorakaranam, R.; Christenson, C.; Lemieux, D.; Thomas, J.; Norwood, R. A.; Yamamoto, M.; Peyghambarian, N.

2010-02-01

The very first demonstration of our refreshable holographic display based on photorefractive polymer was published in Nature early 20081. Based on the unique properties of a new organic photorefractive material and the holographic stereography technique, this display addressed a gap between large static holograms printed in permanent media (photopolymers) and small real time holographic systems like the MIT holovideo. Applications range from medical imaging to refreshable maps and advertisement. Here we are presenting several technical solutions for improving the performance parameters of the initial display from an optical point of view. Full color holograms can be generated thanks to angular multiplexing, the recording time can be reduced from minutes to seconds with a pulsed laser, and full parallax hologram can be recorded in a reasonable time thanks to parallel writing. We also discuss the future of such a display and the possibility of video rate.

Comparative analysis for energy production processes (EPPs): Sustainable energy futures for Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Talinli, Ilhan; Topuz, Emel; Uygar Akbay, Mehmet

2010-01-01

This study presents a comparative analysis of three different energy production process (EPP) scenarios for Turkey. Main goal is to incorporate the prioritization criteria for the assessment of various energy policies for power alternatives, and evaluating these policies against these criteria. The three types of EPPs reviewed in this study are: electricity production from wind farms in the future, existing coal-based thermal power plants and planned nuclear power plants. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is utilized to assess the main and sub-factors of EPPs. Main factors such as economic, technical, social and environmental are assigned in first level of the AHP. The importance weights of factors are produced and priority values with realistic numbers are obtained using Fuzzy-AHP Chang's Model. Priority value for wind energy was determined as two times higher than the others when making the ultimate decision. On aggregate, importance weights of environmental (0.68) and social (0.69) factors make wind power leader. Sub-factors such as public acceptance, waste-emission and environmental impacts cause both nuclear and thermal power to have the lowest priority numbers. Additionally, the CO 2 emissions trade was determined to be a very important criterion associated with both economic and environmental factors according to Kyoto Protocol. This study concludes that Turkey's existing thermal power stations should gradually be substituted by renewable energy options according to a schedule of Turkish energy policies in future.

Drivers of sustainable future mobility

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sigurdardottir, Sigrun Birna

This PhD thesis presents three complementary studies that aimed to enhance knowledge of young people’s longitudinal mobility trends and the factors influencing adolescents’ future mobility intentions. First study was an analysis of Danish national travel survey data (TU) from 1995 to 2012....... The sample consisted of young people divided into four age groups: 15-19 year old, 20-24 year old, 25-29 year old and 30-34 year old. The analysis explores the development of gender gaps for rural and urban living location. The mobility indicators analysed were; driving licence status, travel mode, distance...... is still an important subject in transportation research and future development for young people should be monitored closely. The second study was an internet based survey with the aim to explore a range of mediating factors influencing 15 year old adolescents’ intentions to commute by means of car...

ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED PRICE DYNAMICS BETWEEN FLUID MILK FUTURES CONTRACTS AND CASH PRICES FOR FLUID MILK

OpenAIRE

T. Randall FORTENBERY; Robert A. CROPP; Hector O. ZAPATA

1997-01-01

The objective of this study is to provide an empirical evaluation of the expected relationship between cash and futures prices for fluid milk. This is done using historic cash prices from 1988 to 1995, and making inferences about how futures prices would have behaved if they had traded during this sample period. Futures prices are simulated over the sample period based on two assumptions about futures market behavior for fluid milk. The first is that the futures market will essentially price ...

The Role of Incompleteness in Commodity Futures Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takashi eKanamura

2015-10-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a convenience yield-based pricing for commodity futures, which embeds incompleteness of commodity futures markets in convenience yields. By using the pricing method, we conduct empirical analyses of the prices of WTI crude oil, heating oil, and natural gas futures traded on the NYMEX in order to assess the incompleteness of energy futures markets. We show that the fluctuation from the incompleteness is partly driven by the fluctuation from convenience yields. In addition, it is shown that the incompleteness of natural gas futures market is more highlighted than the incompleteness of WTI crude oil and heating oil futures markets. We apply the implied market price of risk from the NYMEX data to pricing an Asian call option written on WTI crude oil futures. Finally, we try to apply the market incompleteness analysis to the post-crisis periods after 2009.

Current and future sustainable biofuels; Dagens och framtidens haallbara biodrivmedel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boerjesson, Paal [Lunds Univ., Lund (Sweden); Lundgren, Joakim [Luleaa Tekniska Univ., Luleaa (Sweden); Ahlgren, Serina [Sveriges Lantbruksuniv., Uppsala (Sweden); Nystroem, Ingrid [Swedish Knowledge Centre for Renewable Transportation Fuels, Goeteborg (Sweden); CIT Industriell Energi., Goeteborg (Sweden)

2013-09-01

This report has been prepared as a background paper for the state investigation 'Fossil Free Vehicle Traffic'. The purpose of this study is to describe and summarize the current knowledge on production of biofuels and linkages to sustainability issues such as energy and land efficiency, GHG performance and costs. The report includes both existing and future fuel systems under development and based on different raw materials and production processes. The study has primarily a Swedish perspective, but with international views. The report includes both existing and future fuel systems under development, and based on different raw materials and production processes. The study has primarily a Swedish perspective, but with international views. The report's analysis of energy efficiency, greenhouse gas performance and production costs is based on system analysis and a life-cycle perspective. The focus is on the production chain to the produced fuel (well-to-tank). Results are based on current research and commercial development of the respective chains. They are based primarily from standardized life cycle analysis and, in some production systems, also on industrial systems analysis. These two approaches have some differences in methodology, which are highlighted in the report. In the overview values and results have been compiled to make it possible to compare the results.

Current and future sustainable biofuels; Dagens och framtidens haallbara biodrivmedel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boerjesson, Paal [Lunds Univ., Lund (Sweden); Lundgren, Joakim [Luleaa Tekniska Univ., Luleaa (Sweden); Ahlgren, Serina [Sveriges Lantbruksuniv., Uppsala (Sweden); Nystroem, Ingrid [Swedish Knowledge Centre for Renewable Transportation Fuels, Goeteborg (Sweden); CIT Industriell Energi., Goeteborg (Sweden)

2013-09-01

This report has been prepared as a background paper for the state investigation 'Fossil Free Vehicle Traffic'. The purpose of this study is to describe and summarize the current knowledge on production of biofuels and linkages to sustainability issues such as energy and land efficiency, GHG performance and costs. The report includes both existing and future fuel systems under development and based on different raw materials and production processes. The study has primarily a Swedish perspective, but with international views. The report includes both existing and future fuel systems under development, and based on different raw materials and production processes. The study has primarily a Swedish perspective, but with international views. The report's analysis of energy efficiency, greenhouse gas performance and production costs is based on system analysis and a life-cycle perspective. The focus is on the production chain to the produced fuel (well-to-tank). Results are based on current research and commercial development of the respective chains. They are based primarily from standardized life cycle analysis and, in some production systems, also on industrial systems analysis. These two approaches have some differences in methodology, which are highlighted in the report. In the overview values and results have been compiled to make it possible to compare the results.

The future of Jungian analysis: strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats ('SWOT').

Science.gov (United States)

Samuels, Andrew

2017-11-01

Using a methodology derived from management and organizational studies, the author reviews the future of Jungian analysis. The methodology is termed SWOT - strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats. A selected list in each of these categories is presented. The author is transparent in allowing for the fact that the paper not only derives from a public lecture on the topic, but also retains the immediacy and the contrarian and opinionated style of such a lecture. © 2017, The Society of Analytical Psychology.

Real-time data analysis at the LHC: present and future

CERN Document Server

Gligorov, V.V.

2015-01-01

The Large Hadron Collider (LHC), which collides protons at an energy of 14 TeV, produces hundreds of exabytes of data per year, making it one of the largest sources of data in the world today. At present it is not possible to even transfer most of this data from the four main particle detectors at the LHC to "offline" data facilities, much less to permanently store it for future processing. For this reason the LHC detectors are equipped with real-time analysis systems, called triggers, which process this volume of data and select the most interesting proton-proton collisions. The LHC experiment triggers reduce the data produced by the LHC by between 1/1000 and 1/100000, to tens of petabytes per year, allowing its economical storage and further analysis. The bulk of the data-reduction is performed by custom electronics which ignores most of the data in its decision making, and is therefore unable to exploit the most powerful known data analysis strategies. I cover the present status of real-time data analysis ...

Tests of gravity with future space-based experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Sakstein, Jeremy

2018-03-01

Future space-based tests of relativistic gravitation—laser ranging to Phobos, accelerometers in orbit, and optical networks surrounding Earth—will constrain the theory of gravity with unprecedented precision by testing the inverse-square law, the strong and weak equivalence principles, and the deflection and time delay of light by massive bodies. In this paper, we estimate the bounds that could be obtained on alternative gravity theories that use screening mechanisms to suppress deviations from general relativity in the Solar System: chameleon, symmetron, and Galileon models. We find that space-based tests of the parametrized post-Newtonian parameter γ will constrain chameleon and symmetron theories to new levels, and that tests of the inverse-square law using laser ranging to Phobos will provide the most stringent constraints on Galileon theories to date. We end by discussing the potential for constraining these theories using upcoming tests of the weak equivalence principle, and conclude that further theoretical modeling is required in order to fully utilize the data.

Possible sites for future nuclear power plants in Israel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yaar, Ilan, E-mail: ilany@energy.gov.il [Ministry of National Infrastructure, Energy and Water Resources, Chief Scientist Office, 14 Hartum St., POB 36148, Jerusalem 9136002 (Israel); Walter, Ayelet [Ministry of National Infrastructure, Energy and Water Resources, Chief Scientist Office, 14 Hartum St., POB 36148, Jerusalem 9136002 (Israel); Sanders, Yovav [Sysnet Group, Habarzel St. 32, Tel Aviv 69710 (Israel); Felus, Yaron [Survey of Israel, 1 Lincoln St., POB 14171, Tel-Aviv 61141 (Israel); Calvo, Ran; Hamiel, Yariv [Geological Survey of Israel, 30 Malkhe Israel St., Jerusalem 95501 (Israel)

2016-03-15

A preliminary work aimed at allocating suitable new sites for possible NPPs in Israel is presented. The work is based on Israel's present NPP siting criteria, supported by selected procedure performed by various countries that conducted similar process. The site selection process was conducted in two stages: first, a selection procedure using demographic analysis was conducted; second, a seismological and geological analysis process was performed in the remaining area. From the combined two screening processes results, an overall new area of 569 km{sup 2} was located as a possible area for future construction of NPPs in Israel. Further and more comprehensive work, based on the IAEAs site selection guidelines, has to be performed in the future, in order to verify the preliminary findings presented in this work.

Coping with a fast-changing world: Towards new systems of future-oriented technology analysis

OpenAIRE

Weber, K. Matthias; Harper, Jennifer Cassingena; Könnölä, Totti; Carabias Barceló, Vicente

2017-01-01

Transformations linked to disruptive events are causing a shift in future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) activities from individual large-scale foresight actions to smaller in-house exercises and capacity building. The reasons are manifold relating to the need for an even tighter embedding of FTA in policy-making in a fast-changing complex environment as well as to internal drivers for novel forms of future intelligence to support coordinated and coherent decisions within and across organ...

Adapting for uncertainty : a scenario analysis of U.S. technology energy futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laitner, J.A.; Hanson, D.A.; Mintzner, I.; Leonard, J.A.

2006-01-01

The pattern of future evolution for United States (US) energy markets is highly uncertain at this time. This article provided details of a study using a scenario analysis technique to investigate key energy issues affecting decision-making processes in the United States. Four scenarios were used to examine the driving forces and critical uncertainties that may shape United States energy markets and the economy for the next 50 years: (1) a reference scenario benchmarked to the 2002 annual energy outlook forecast, (2) abundant and inexpensive supplies of oil and gas, (3) a chaotic future beset with international conflict, faltering new technologies, environmental policy difficulties and slowed economic growth, and (4) a technology-driven market in which a variety of forces converge to reshape the energy sector. Each of the scenarios was quantified using a computable general equilibrium model known as the All Modular Industry Growth Assessment (AMIGA) model. Results suggested that the range of different outcomes for the US is broad. However, energy use is expected to increase in all 4 scenarios. It was observed that the introduction of policies to encourage capital stock turnover and accelerate the commercialization of high efficiency, low-emissions technologies may reduce future primary energy demand. The analysis also showed that lower energy prices may lead to higher economic growth. Policies introduced to improve energy efficiency and accelerate the introduction of new technologies did not appreciably reduce the prospects for economic growth. Results also suggested that lower fossil fuel prices discourage investments in energy efficiency or new technologies and may mask the task of responding to future surprises. It was concluded that an investment path that emphasizes both energy efficiency improvements and advanced energy supply technologies will provide economic growth conditions similar to the implementation of lower energy prices. 11 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs

A Theme-Based Course: Hydrogen as the Fuel of the Future

Science.gov (United States)

Shultz, Mary Jane; Kelly, Matthew; Paritsky, Leonid; Wagner, Julia

2009-01-01

A theme-based course focusing on the potential role of hydrogen as a future fuel is described. Numerous topics included in typical introductory courses can be directly related to the issue of hydrogen energy. Beginning topics include Avogadro's number, the mole, atomic mass, gas laws, and the role of electrons in chemical transformations. Reaction…

Estimation of the future nuclear power research in Romania, based on the present Cernavoda NPP evolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dumitrache, Ion

2001-01-01

For more than four decades, the electric power needs of Romania were evaluated on the basis of the State Plan for Economic Development. To identify the optimal solution, the 'least price per produced MWh' was practically the only criterion. Now, there is no convincing estimation of the future economic development and at least two additional criteria play a significant role, 'the safety in the supply of the needed electric power', and 'the need of limiting the environmental impact of electricity generation'. The analysis dedicated to evaluation of future electric power solutions must take into account several features of the present situation. There are no available internal funds to finance the construction of new generating units of the order of several hundreds of MW. Even the so-called 'refurbishing' of the existing thermal power plants is based on foreign loan. In the 2000 year, about 80 electricity generation units reached 30 years of operation, i.e., the design life. Other thermal power plants proved very modest performances during 15-20 years of operation. Consequently, the future of almost 100 generating units is either in shutdown + decommissioning or shutdown + modernization situation. The Government analyzed the situation and decided to continue the completion of the Cernavoda NPP. The Unit 2 will be commissioned in a couple of years, and there is a schedule of negotiations relating the future of the Unit 3. After almost five years of successful operation of the Unit 1, the collaboration between RDT Institutes and NPP has clear features. Based on the experience related to this collaboration and taking into account the evolution of the Cernavoda NPP, we estimated that five research domains have significant chances to obtain a stable (and, hopefully, consistent) financial support. 1. Nuclear Safety, in particular Accident Analysis. As the Government re-iterated the firm decision to meet the conditions required for European integration, most of the nuclear

Predicting the Uncertain Future of Aptamer-Based Diagnostics and Therapeutics.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruno, John G

2015-04-16

Despite the great promise of nucleic acid aptamers in the areas of diagnostics and therapeutics for their facile in vitro development, lack of immunogenicity and other desirable properties, few truly successful aptamer-based products exist in the clinical or other markets. Core reasons for these commercial deficiencies probably stem from industrial commitment to antibodies including a huge financial investment in humanized monoclonal antibodies and a general ignorance about aptamers and their performance among the research and development community. Given the early failures of some strong commercial efforts to gain government approval and bring aptamer-based products to market, it may seem that aptamers are doomed to take a backseat to antibodies forever. However, the key advantages of aptamers over antibodies coupled with niche market needs that only aptamers can fill and more recent published data still point to a bright commercial future for aptamers in areas such as infectious disease and cancer diagnostics and therapeutics. As more researchers and entrepreneurs become familiar with aptamers, it seems inevitable that aptamers will at least be considered for expanded roles in diagnostics and therapeutics. This review also examines new aptamer modifications and attempts to predict new aptamer applications that could revolutionize biomedical technology in the future and lead to marketed products.

Real-time web-based assessment of total population risk of future emergency department utilization: statewide prospective active case finding study.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Zhongkai; Jin, Bo; Shin, Andrew Y; Zhu, Chunqing; Zhao, Yifan; Hao, Shiying; Zheng, Le; Fu, Changlin; Wen, Qiaojun; Ji, Jun; Li, Zhen; Wang, Yong; Zheng, Xiaolin; Dai, Dorothy; Culver, Devore S; Alfreds, Shaun T; Rogow, Todd; Stearns, Frank; Sylvester, Karl G; Widen, Eric; Ling, Xuefeng B

2015-01-13

An easily accessible real-time Web-based utility to assess patient risks of future emergency department (ED) visits can help the health care provider guide the allocation of resources to better manage higher-risk patient populations and thereby reduce unnecessary use of EDs. Our main objective was to develop a Health Information Exchange-based, next 6-month ED risk surveillance system in the state of Maine. Data on electronic medical record (EMR) encounters integrated by HealthInfoNet (HIN), Maine's Health Information Exchange, were used to develop the Web-based surveillance system for a population ED future 6-month risk prediction. To model, a retrospective cohort of 829,641 patients with comprehensive clinical histories from January 1 to December 31, 2012 was used for training and then tested with a prospective cohort of 875,979 patients from July 1, 2012, to June 30, 2013. The multivariate statistical analysis identified 101 variables predictive of future defined 6-month risk of ED visit: 4 age groups, history of 8 different encounter types, history of 17 primary and 8 secondary diagnoses, 8 specific chronic diseases, 28 laboratory test results, history of 3 radiographic tests, and history of 25 outpatient prescription medications. The c-statistics for the retrospective and prospective cohorts were 0.739 and 0.732 respectively. Integration of our method into the HIN secure statewide data system in real time prospectively validated its performance. Cluster analysis in both the retrospective and prospective analyses revealed discrete subpopulations of high-risk patients, grouped around multiple "anchoring" demographics and chronic conditions. With the Web-based population risk-monitoring enterprise dashboards, the effectiveness of the active case finding algorithm has been validated by clinicians and caregivers in Maine. The active case finding model and associated real-time Web-based app were designed to track the evolving nature of total population risk, in a

Future changes in the Baltic Sea acid–base (pH and oxygen balances

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anders Omstedt

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Possible future changes in Baltic Sea acid–base (pH and oxygen balances were studied using a catchment–sea coupled model system and numerical experiments based on meteorological and hydrological forcing datasets and scenarios. By using objective statistical methods, climate runs for present climate conditions were examined and evaluated using Baltic Sea modelling. The results indicate that increased nutrient loads will not inhibit future Baltic Sea acidification; instead, the seasonal pH cycle will be amplified by increased biological production and mineralization. All examined scenarios indicate future acidification of the whole Baltic Sea that is insensitive to the chosen global climate model. The main factor controlling the direction and magnitude of future pH changes is atmospheric CO2 concentration (i.e. emissions. Climate change and land-derived changes (e.g. nutrient loads affect acidification mainly by altering the seasonal cycle and deep-water conditions. Apart from decreasing pH, we also project a decreased saturation state of calcium carbonate, decreased respiration index and increasing hypoxic area – all factors that will threaten the marine ecosystem. We demonstrate that substantial reductions in fossil-fuel burning are needed to minimise the coming pH decrease and that substantial reductions in nutrient loads are needed to reduce the coming increase in hypoxic and anoxic waters.

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 1. Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hand, M. M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Baldwin, S. [U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States); DeMeo, E. [Renewable Energy Consulting, Chicago, IL (United States); Reilly, J. M. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Mai, T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Arent, D. [Joint Inst. for Strategic Energy Analysis, Boulder, CO (United States); Porro, G. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Meshek, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sandor, D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2012-06-15

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/

Efficient strategies for the integration of renewable energy into future energy infrastructures in Europe – An analysis based on transnational modeling and case studies for nine European regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boie, Inga; Fernandes, Camila; Frías, Pablo; Klobasa, Marian

2014-01-01

As a result of the current international climate change strategy, the European Commission has agreed on ambitious targets to reduce CO 2 emissions by more than 80% until 2050 as compared to 1990 levels and to increase the share of renewable energy and improve energy efficiency by 20% until 2020. Under this framework, renewable energy generation has increased considerably in the EU and it is expected to keep growing in the future years. This paper presents long-term strategies for transmission infrastructure development to integrate increasing amounts of renewable generation in the time horizon of 2030–2050. These are part of the outcomes of the SUSPLAN project, which focuses on four possible future renewable deployment scenarios in different European regions taking into account the corresponding infrastructure needs, especially electricity and gas grids, both on regional and transnational level. The main objective of the project is the development of guidelines for the integration of renewable energy into future energy infrastructures while taking account of national and regional characteristics. Therefore, the analysis is based on a two-track approach: A transnational modeling exercise (“top-down”) and in-depth case studies for nine representative European regions (“bottom-up”). - Highlights: • We present the main outcomes of the SUSPLAN EU project. • It assesses long-term energy infrastructure needs to integrate RES in Europe. • Regional and transnational analyses are performed for 4 RES scenarios until 2050. • Major barriers to the integration of RES into energy infrastructure are identified. • Efficient strategies to mitigate these barriers are proposed

Future generations, environmental ethics, and global environmental change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tonn, B.E.

1994-12-31

The elements of a methodology to be employed by the global community to investigate the consequences of global environmental change upon future generations and global ecosystems are outlined in this paper. The methodology is comprised of two major components: A possible future worlds model; and a formal, citizen-oriented process to judge whether the possible future worlds potentially inheritable by future generations meet obligational standards. A broad array of descriptors of future worlds can be encompassed within this framework, including survival of ecosystems and other species and satisfaction of human concerns. The methodology expresses fundamental psychological motivations and human myths journey, renewal, mother earth, and being-in-nature-and incorporates several viewpoints on obligations to future generations-maintaining options, fairness, humility, and the cause of humanity. The methodology overcomes several severe drawbacks of the economic-based methods most commonly used for global environmental policy analysis.

Assessing the impacts of current and future concentrations of surface ozone on crop yield with meta-analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Zhaozhong; Kobayashi, Kazuhiko

Meta-analysis was conducted to quantitatively assess the effects of rising ozone concentrations ([O 3]) on yield and yield components of major food crops: potato, barley, wheat, rice, bean and soybean in 406 experimental observations. Yield loss of the crops under current and future [O 3] was expressed relative to the yield under base [O 3] (≤26 ppb). With potato, current [O 3] (31-50 ppb) reduced the yield by 5.3%, and it reduced the yield of barley, wheat and rice by 8.9%, 9.7% and 17.5%, respectively. In bean and soybean, the yield losses were 19.0% and 7.7%, respectively. Compared with yield loss at current [O 3], future [O 3] (51-75 ppb) drove a further 10% loss in yield of soybean, wheat and rice, and 20% loss in bean. Mass of individual grain, seed, or tuber was often the major cause of the yield loss at current and future [O 3], whereas other yield components also contributed to the yield loss in some cases. No significant difference was found between the responses in crops grown in pots and those in the ground for any yield parameters. The ameliorating effect of elevated [CO 2] was significant in the yields of wheat and potato, and the individual grain weight in wheat exposed to future [O 3]. These findings confirm the rising [O 3] as a threat to food security for the growing global population in this century.

Imagining flood futures: risk assessment and management in practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Lane, Stuart N; Landström, Catharina; Whatmore, Sarah J

2011-05-13

The mantra that policy and management should be 'evidence-based' is well established. Less so are the implications that follow from 'evidence' being predictions of the future (forecasts, scenarios, horizons) even though such futures define the actions taken today to make the future sustainable. Here, we consider the tension between 'evidence', reliable because it is observed, and predictions of the future, unobservable in conventional terms. For flood risk management in England and Wales, we show that futures are actively constituted, and so imagined, through 'suites of practices' entwining policy, management and scientific analysis. Management has to constrain analysis because of the many ways in which flood futures can be constructed, but also because of commitment to an accounting calculus, which requires risk to be expressed in monetary terms. It is grounded in numerical simulation, undertaken by scientific consultants who follow policy/management guidelines that define the futures to be considered. Historical evidence is needed to deal with process and parameter uncertainties and the futures imagined are tied to pasts experienced. Reliance on past events is a challenge for prediction, given changing probability (e.g. climate change) and consequence (e.g. development on floodplains). So, risk management allows some elements of risk analysis to become unstable (notably in relation to climate change) but forces others to remain stable (e.g. invoking regulation to prevent inappropriate floodplain development). We conclude that the assumed separation of risk assessment and management is false because the risk calculation has to be defined by management. Making this process accountable requires openness about the procedures that make flood risk analysis more (or less) reliable to those we entrust to produce and act upon them such that, unlike the 'pseudosciences', they can be put to the test of public interrogation by those who have to live with their consequences

End-User Attitudes towards Location-Based Services and Future Mobile Wireless Devices: The Students’ Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bogdan Cramariuc

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Nowadays, location-enabled mobile phones are becoming more and more widespread. Various players in the mobile business forecast that, in the future, a significant part of total wireless revenue will come from Location-Based Services (LBS. An LBS system extracts information about the user’s geographical location and provides services based on the positioning information. A successful LBS service should create value for the end-user, by satisfying some of the users’ needs or wants, and at the same time preserving the key factors of the mobile wireless device, such as low costs, low battery consumption, and small size. From many users’ perspectives, location services and mobile location capabilities are still rather poorly known and poorly understood. The aim of this research is to investigate users’ views on the LBS, their requirements in terms of mobile device characteristics, their concerns in terms of privacy and usability, and their opinion on LBS applications that might increase the social wellbeing in the future wireless world. Our research is based on two surveys performed among 105 students (average student age: 24 years from two European technical universities. The survey questions were intended to solicit the youngsters’ views on present and future technological trends and on their perceived needs and wishes regarding Location-Based Services, with the aim of obtaining a better understanding of designer constraints when building a location receiver and generating new ideas related to potential future killer LBS applications.

Back to the future: past and future era-based schematic support and associative memory for prices in younger and older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Castel, Alan D; McGillivray, Shannon; Worden, Kendell M

2013-12-01

Older adults typically display various associative memory deficits, but these deficits can be reduced when conditions allow for the use of prior knowledge or schematic support. To determine how era-specific schematic support and future simulation might influence associative memory, we examined how younger and older adults remember prices from the past as well as the future. Younger and older adults were asked to imagine the past or future, and then studied items and prices from approximately 40 years ago (market value prices from the 1970s) or 40 years in the future. In Experiment 1, all items were common items (e.g., movie ticket, coffee) and the associated prices reflected the era in question, whereas in Experiment 2, some item-price pairs were specific to the time period (e.g., typewriter, robot maid), to test different degrees of schematic support. After studying the pairs, participants were shown each item and asked to recall the associated price. In both experiments, older adults showed similar performance as younger adults in the past condition for the common items, whereas age-related differences were greater in the future condition and for the era-specific items. The findings suggest that in order for schematic support to be effective, recent (and not simply remote) experience is needed in order to enhance memory. Thus, whereas older adults can benefit from "turning back the clock," younger adults better remember future-oriented information compared with older adults, outlining age-related similarities and differences in associative memory and the efficient use of past and future-based schematic support. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Comparative analysis of coolants for FBR of future nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toshinsky, G.I.; Grigoryev, O.G.; Pylchenkov, E.H.; Skorikov, D.E.; Komkova, O.I.

2001-01-01

Selection of a fast reactor (FR) coolant for future nuclear reactors is a complex task that has not a single solution. Safety requirements are expected to grow in the future. The requirements to FR are reconsidered. Gradual transition from the FR as a builder up of plutonium to the FR as an economically effective energy source, is taking place. Among all types of coolants viable for FR, LMC (light molten salt coolants) cover the most complete range of requirements to advanced reactors and have a complete database. Sodium and lead-bismuth coolant (LBC) are selected because there is a complete package of technologies for their handling. Heavy liquid metal coolant (HLMC), being at a disadvantage of heat transfer rate in relation to sodium, make it possible to give the inherent safety properties to the reactor and, as a result, to simplify essentially the reactor design and its safety systems. This results in capital and costs reduction. Neutronic characteristics of HLMC cooled reactors make possible to transmute their own minor actinides (MA) safely, and LBC cooled reactors are able to transmute LWR'MA with high safety characteristics. Basing on the comparison carried out, it can be concluded, that both LBC and sodium are perspective coolants for future FR

Comparative analysis of coolants for FBR of future nuclear power

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Toshinsky, G.I.; Grigoryev, O.G.; Pylchenkov, E.H.; Skorikov, D.E.; Komkova, O.I. [State Scientific Center of Russian Federation, Institute for Physics and Power Engineering named after Academician A.I. Leipusky, Kaluga Region (Russian Federation)

2001-07-01

Selection of a fast reactor (FR) coolant for future nuclear reactors is a complex task that has not a single solution. Safety requirements are expected to grow in the future. The requirements to FR are reconsidered. Gradual transition from the FR as a builder up of plutonium to the FR as an economically effective energy source, is taking place. Among all types of coolants viable for FR, LMC (light molten salt coolants) cover the most complete range of requirements to advanced reactors and have a complete database. Sodium and lead-bismuth coolant (LBC) are selected because there is a complete package of technologies for their handling. Heavy liquid metal coolant (HLMC), being at a disadvantage of heat transfer rate in relation to sodium, make it possible to give the inherent safety properties to the reactor and, as a result, to simplify essentially the reactor design and its safety systems. This results in capital and costs reduction. Neutronic characteristics of HLMC cooled reactors make possible to transmute their own minor actinides (MA) safely, and LBC cooled reactors are able to transmute LWR'MA with high safety characteristics. Basing on the comparison carried out, it can be concluded, that both LBC and sodium are perspective coolants for future FR.

Share price trend based on analysis of investor’s online activity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mihail Dumitru SACALĂ

2011-07-01

Full Text Available The desire of modeling the influence coming from behavioral economics, representing mostly qualitative variables, requires new approaches to quantify this influence. In this paper we present an analytical method for determining the direction of the share future return using an aggregate indicator calculated based exclusively on the trend of registered variables from investor’s online activity. This online activity refers to the number and content of messages posted by investors on shares analysis dedicated web blogs.

Future Urban Climate Projection in A Tropical Megacity Based on Global and Regional Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.

2017-12-01

Cities in Asian developing countries experience rapid transformation in urban morphology and energy consumption, which correspondingly affects urban climate. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) in the tropic Jakarta Greater Area was conducted. Simulation was conducted during the dry months from 2006 to 2015 and agreed well with point and satellite observation. The same technology coupled with pseudo global warming (PGW) method based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenario 2.6 and 8.5 was conducted to produce futuristic climate condition in 2050. Projected urban morphology and AHE in 2050s were constructed using regional urban growing model with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) among its inputs. Compact future urban configuration, based on SSP1, was coupled to RCP2.6. Unrestrained future urban configuration, based on SSP3, was coupled to RCP8.5. Results show that background warming from RCP 2.6 and 8.5 will increase background temperature by 0.55°C and 1.2°C throughout the region, respectively. Future projection of urban sprawl results to an additional 0.3°C and 0.5°C increase on average, with maximum increase of 1.1°C and 1.3°C due to urban effect for RCP2.6/compact and RCP8.5/unrestrained, respectively. Higher moisture content in urban area is indicated in the future due to higher evaporation. Change in urban roughness is likely affect slower wind velocity in urban area and sea breeze front inland penetration the future compare with current condition. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

Analysis of Balancing Requirements in Future Sustainable and Reliable Power Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frunt, J.

2011-01-01

This thesis elaborates on the rules for power balancing, provides a method for quantifying balancing requirements and examines the effect of future changes on balancing. Chapter 2 elaborates on system balancing and the different actors and entities in the electricity delivery system. The necessity and implementation of power balancing are explained. Also different subsequent markets (i.e., day-ahead markets, intraday markets and imbalance settlement systems) and options to trade electricity are discussed. As the research focusses mainly on the Netherlands, properties of the Dutch imbalance settlement system are analyzed. Based on this framework an in-depth analysis of imbalances and calls for balancing capacity with the corresponding prices is given. This shows the incentives to minimize the amount of imbalance in the system and to participate in the imbalance settlement system. Chapter 3 elaborates on the level of aggregation that the entities, involved in the imbalance settlement system, in electricity markets can have. Based on current market rules, incentives to either grow or shrink and by aggregating more or less entities are discussed. The level of aggregation will directly influence the functioning of the imbalance settlement system. It is shown that larger aggregations benefit more from the canceling out of imbalances. The imbalances of the Netherlands and Belgium have been aggregated to illustrate the possible benefits of aggregating multiple national imbalance settlement systems. The increased penetration of renewable generation strongly influences the planning and operation of the power system. As many renewable energy generators have a fluctuating power output, several methods are discussed in chapter 4 that can be used to classify and quantify the balancing requirements to counteract these fluctuations. Chapter 4 discusses the multiple existing classes of balancing capacity and the corresponding methods to quantify their needs. Due to the

Analysis of Balancing Requirements in Future Sustainable and Reliable Power Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Frunt, J.

2011-06-01

This thesis elaborates on the rules for power balancing, provides a method for quantifying balancing requirements and examines the effect of future changes on balancing. Chapter 2 elaborates on system balancing and the different actors and entities in the electricity delivery system. The necessity and implementation of power balancing are explained. Also different subsequent markets (i.e., day-ahead markets, intraday markets and imbalance settlement systems) and options to trade electricity are discussed. As the research focusses mainly on the Netherlands, properties of the Dutch imbalance settlement system are analyzed. Based on this framework an in-depth analysis of imbalances and calls for balancing capacity with the corresponding prices is given. This shows the incentives to minimize the amount of imbalance in the system and to participate in the imbalance settlement system. Chapter 3 elaborates on the level of aggregation that the entities, involved in the imbalance settlement system, in electricity markets can have. Based on current market rules, incentives to either grow or shrink and by aggregating more or less entities are discussed. The level of aggregation will directly influence the functioning of the imbalance settlement system. It is shown that larger aggregations benefit more from the canceling out of imbalances. The imbalances of the Netherlands and Belgium have been aggregated to illustrate the possible benefits of aggregating multiple national imbalance settlement systems. The increased penetration of renewable generation strongly influences the planning and operation of the power system. As many renewable energy generators have a fluctuating power output, several methods are discussed in chapter 4 that can be used to classify and quantify the balancing requirements to counteract these fluctuations. Chapter 4 discusses the multiple existing classes of balancing capacity and the corresponding methods to quantify their needs. Due to the

Open access for ALICE analysis based on virtualization technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buncic, P; Gheata, M; Schutz, Y

2015-01-01

Open access is one of the important leverages for long-term data preservation for a HEP experiment. To guarantee the usability of data analysis tools beyond the experiment lifetime it is crucial that third party users from the scientific community have access to the data and associated software. The ALICE Collaboration has developed a layer of lightweight components built on top of virtualization technology to hide the complexity and details of the experiment-specific software. Users can perform basic analysis tasks within CernVM, a lightweight generic virtual machine, paired with an ALICE specific contextualization. Once the virtual machine is launched, a graphical user interface is automatically started without any additional configuration. This interface allows downloading the base ALICE analysis software and running a set of ALICE analysis modules. Currently the available tools include fully documented tutorials for ALICE analysis, such as the measurement of strange particle production or the nuclear modification factor in Pb-Pb collisions. The interface can be easily extended to include an arbitrary number of additional analysis modules. We present the current status of the tools used by ALICE through the CERN open access portal, and the plans for future extensions of this system. (paper)

Frailty as a Predictor of Future Falls Among Community-Dwelling Older People: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kojima, Gotaro

2015-12-01

Although multiple longitudinal studies have investigated frailty as a predictor of future falls, the results were mixed. Thus far, no systematic review or meta-analysis on this topic has been conducted. To review the evidence of frailty as a predictor of future falls among community-dwelling older people. Systematic review of literature and meta-analysis were performed using 6 electronic databases (Embase, Scopus, MEDLINE, CINAHL Plus, PsycINFO, and the Cochrane Library) searching for studies that prospectively examined risk of future fall risk according to frailty among community-dwelling older people published from 2010 to April 2015 with no language restrictions. Of 2245 studies identified through the systematic review, 11 studies incorporating 68,723 individuals were included in the meta-analysis. Among 7 studies reporting odds ratios (ORs), frailty and prefrailty were significantly associated with higher risk of future falls (pooled OR = 1.84, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 1.43-2.38, P dwelling older people despite various criteria used to define frailty. The future fall risk according to frailty seemed to be higher in men than in women. Copyright © 2015 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Future of Virtual Reality in Education: A Future Oriented Meta Analysis of the Literature

Science.gov (United States)

Passig, David

2009-01-01

Many have elaborated on the potential of virtual reality (VR) in learning. This article attempts at organizing the literature in this issue in order to better identify indicators that can account for future valid trends, and seeks to bring to attention how authors who wrote about the future of VR in education confused futures' terms and produced…

The cost of respirable coal mine dust: an analysis based on new black lung claims

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Page, S.J.; Organiscak, J.A.; Lichtman, K. [US Bureau of Mines, Pittsburgh, PA (United States). Dept. of the Interior

1997-12-01

The article provides summation of the monetary costs of new compensation claims associated with levels of unmitigated respirable coal mine dust and the resultant lung disease known as black lung and compares these compensation costs to the cost of dust control technology research by the US Bureau of Mines. It presents an analysis of these expenditures and projects these costs over the period from 1991 to 2010, based on projected future new claims which are assumed to be approved for federal and state benefit payment. Since current and future dust control research efforts cannot change past claim histories, a valid comparison of future research spending with other incurred costs must examine only the cost of future new claims. The bias of old claim costs was eliminated in this analysis by examining only claims since 1980. The results estimate that for an expected 339 new approved claims annually from 1991 to 2010, the Federal Trust Fund costs will be 985 million dollars. During this same period, state black lung compensation is estimated to be 18.2 billion dollars. The Bureau of Mines dust control research expenditures are estimated as 0.44% of the projected future black lung-related costs. 9 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.

Preparing the Dutch delta for future droughts: model based support in the national Delta Programme

Science.gov (United States)

ter Maat, Judith; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; van der Vat, Marnix; Hunink, Joachim; Prinsen, Geert; Visser, Martijn

2014-05-01

Keywords: uncertainty, policymaking, adaptive policies, fresh water management, droughts, Netherlands, Dutch Deltaprogramme, physically-based complex model, theory-motivated meta-model To prepare the Dutch Delta for future droughts and water scarcity, a nation-wide 4-year project, called Delta Programme, is established to assess impacts of climate scenarios and socio-economic developments and to explore policy options. The results should contribute to a national adaptive plan that is able to adapt to future uncertain conditions, if necessary. For this purpose, we followed a model-based step-wise approach, wherein both physically-based complex models and theory-motivated meta-models were used. First step (2010-2011) was to make a quantitative problem description. This involved a sensitivity analysis of the water system for drought situations under current and future conditions. The comprehensive Dutch national hydrological instrument was used for this purpose and further developed. Secondly (2011-2012) our main focus was on making an inventory of potential actions together with stakeholders. We assessed efficacy, sell-by date of actions, and reassessed vulnerabilities and opportunities for the future water supply system if actions were (not) taken. A rapid assessment meta-model was made based on the complex model. The effects of all potential measures were included in the tool. Thirdly (2012-2013), with support of the rapid assessment model, we assessed the efficacy of policy actions over time for an ensemble of possible futures including sea level rise and climate and land use change. Last step (2013-2014) involves the selection of preferred actions from a set of promising actions that meet the defined objectives. These actions are all modeled and evaluated using the complex model. The outcome of the process will be an adaptive management plan. The adaptive plan describes a set of preferred policy pathways - sequences of policy actions - to achieve targets under

Mental Health Smartphone Apps: Review and Evidence-Based Recommendations for Future Developments

OpenAIRE

Bakker, David; Kazantzis, Nikolaos; Rickwood, Debra; Rickard, Nikki

2016-01-01

Background The number of mental health apps (MHapps) developed and now available to smartphone users has increased in recent years. MHapps and other technology-based solutions have the potential to play an important part in the future of mental health care; however, there is no single guide for the development of evidence-based MHapps. Many currently available MHapps lack features that would greatly improve their functionality, or include features that are not optimized. Furthermore, MHapp de...

Group-based social skills interventions for adolescents with higher-functioning autism spectrum disorder: a review and looking to the future

Science.gov (United States)

McMahon, Camilla M; Lerner, Matthew D; Britton, Noah

2013-01-01

In this paper, we synthesize the current literature on group-based social skills interventions (GSSIs) for adolescents (ages 10–20 years) with higher-functioning autism spectrum disorder and identify key concepts that should be addressed in future research on GSSIs. We consider the research participants, the intervention, the assessment of the intervention, and the research methodology and results to be integral and interconnected components of the GSSI literature, and we review each of these components respectively. Participant characteristics (eg, age, IQ, sex) and intervention characteristics (eg, targeted social skills, teaching strategies, duration and intensity) vary considerably across GSSIs; future research should evaluate whether participant and intervention characteristics mediate/moderate intervention efficacy. Multiple assessments (eg, parent-report, child-report, social cognitive assessments) are used to evaluate the efficacy of GSSIs; future research should be aware of the limitations of current measurement approaches and employ more accurate, sensitive, and comprehensive measurement approaches. Results of GSSIs are largely inconclusive, with few consistent findings across studies (eg, high parent and child satisfaction with the intervention); future research should employ more rigorous methodological standards for evaluating efficacy. A better understanding of these components in the current GSSI literature and a more sophisticated and rigorous analysis of these components in future research will lend clarity to key questions regarding the efficacy of GSSIs for individuals with autism spectrum disorder. PMID:23956616

Prostate-specific antigen-based prostate cancer screening: Past and future.

Science.gov (United States)

Alberts, Arnout R; Schoots, Ivo G; Roobol, Monique J

2015-06-01

Prostate-specific antigen-based prostate cancer screening remains a controversial topic. Up to now, there is worldwide consensus on the statement that the harms of population-based screening, mainly as a result of overdiagnosis (the detection of clinically insignificant tumors that would have never caused any symptoms), outweigh the benefits. However, worldwide opportunistic screening takes place on a wide scale. The European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer showed a reduction in prostate cancer mortality through prostate-specific antigen based-screening. These population-based data need to be individualized in order to avoid screening in those who cannot benefit and start screening in those who will. For now, lacking a more optimal screening approach, screening should only be started after the process of shared decision-making. The focus of future research is the reduction of unnecessary testing and overdiagnosis by further research to better biomarkers and the value of the multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging, potentially combined in already existing prostate-specific antigen-based multivariate risk prediction models. © 2015 The Japanese Urological Association.

Some strategic conclusions from an economic analysis of wind power based on simple and innovative methods and tools

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chabot, B.

2001-01-01

The fast development of wind power is based on improved performance of wind turbines and on higher profitability of wind power projects. Therefore, an economic analysis is necessary to quantify past and future progress. In this respect, the paper presents a simplified economic analysis method in order to assess present and future wind energy costs and in order to determine wind tariffs able to ensure a sustainable development of this technology. Perspectives and scenarios for the development of wind power are described up to 2020 in the case of France and in the 21. century for the world. (author)

A scenario analysis of future energy systems based on an energy flow model represented as functionals of technology options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kikuchi, Yasunori; Kimura, Seiichiro; Okamoto, Yoshitaka; Koyama, Michihisa

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Energy flow model was represented as the functionals of technology options. • Relationships among available technologies can be visualized by developed model. • Technology roadmapping can be incorporated into the model as technical scenario. • Combination of technologies can increase their contribution to the environment. - Abstract: The design of energy systems has become an issue all over the world. A single optimal system cannot be suggested because the availability of infrastructure and resources and the acceptability of the system should be discussed locally, involving all related stakeholders in the energy system. In particular, researchers and engineers of technologies related to energy systems should be able to perform the forecasting and roadmapping of future energy systems and indicate quantitative results of scenario analyses. We report an energy flow model developed for analysing scenarios of future Japanese energy systems implementing a variety of feasible technology options. The model was modularized and represented as functionals of appropriate technology options, which enables the aggregation and disaggregation of energy systems by defining functionals for single technologies, packages integrating multi-technologies, and mini-systems such as regions implementing industrial symbiosis. Based on the model, the combinations of technologies on both energy supply and demand sides can be addressed considering not only the societal scenarios such as resource prices, economic growth and population change but also the technical scenarios including the development and penetration of energy-related technologies such as distributed solid oxide fuel cells in residential sectors and new-generation vehicles, and the replacement and shift of current technologies such as heat pumps for air conditioning and centralized power generation. The developed model consists of two main modules; namely, a power generation dispatching module for the

The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, O.; Hawkes, A.; Gambhir, A.; Staffell, I.

2017-08-01

Electrical energy storage could play a pivotal role in future low-carbon electricity systems, balancing inflexible or intermittent supply with demand. Cost projections are important for understanding this role, but data are scarce and uncertain. Here, we construct experience curves to project future prices for 11 electrical energy storage technologies. We find that, regardless of technology, capital costs are on a trajectory towards US$340 ± 60 kWh-1 for installed stationary systems and US$175 ± 25 kWh-1 for battery packs once 1 TWh of capacity is installed for each technology. Bottom-up assessment of material and production costs indicates this price range is not infeasible. Cumulative investments of US$175-510 billion would be needed for any technology to reach 1 TWh deployment, which could be achieved by 2027-2040 based on market growth projections. Finally, we explore how the derived rates of future cost reduction influence when storage becomes economically competitive in transport and residential applications. Thus, our experience-curve data set removes a barrier for further study by industry, policymakers and academics.

Futures Analysis of Urban Land Use and Wetland Change in Saskatoon, Canada: An Application in Strategic Environmental Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anton Sizo

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a scenario-based approach to strategic environmental assessment (SEA for wetland trend analysis and land use and land cover (LUC modeling in an urban environment. The application is focused on the Saskatoon urban environment, a rapidly growing urban municipality in Canada’s prairie pothole region. Alternative future LUC was simulated using remote sensing data and city spatial planning documentation using a Markov Chain technique. Two alternatives were developed and compared for LUC change and threats to urban wetland sustainability: a zero alternative that simulated trends in urban development and wetland conservation under a business as usual scenario, in the absence of prescribed planning and zoning actions; and an alternative focused on implementation of current urban development plans, which simulated future LUC to account for prescribed wetland conservation strategies. Results show no improvement in future wetland conditions under the city’s planned growth and wetland conservation scenario versus the business as usual scenario. Results also indicate that a blanket wetland conservation strategy for the city may not be sufficient to overcome the historic trend of urban wetland loss; and that spatially distributed conservation rates, based on individual wetland water catchment LUC peculiarities, may be more effective in terms of wetland conservation. The paper also demonstrates the challenges to applied SEA in a rapidly changing urban planning context, where data are often sparse and inconsistent across the urban region, and provides potential solutions through LUC classification and prediction tools to help overcome data limitations to support land use planning decisions for wetland conservation.

Forming Attitudes That Predict Future Behavior: A Meta-Analysis of the Attitude–Behavior Relation

Science.gov (United States)

Glasman, Laura R.; Albarracín, Dolores

2016-01-01

A meta-analysis (k of conditions = 128; N = 4,598) examined the influence of factors present at the time an attitude is formed on the degree to which this attitude guides future behavior. The findings indicated that attitudes correlated with a future behavior more strongly when they were easy to recall (accessible) and stable over time. Because of increased accessibility, attitudes more strongly predicted future behavior when participants had direct experience with the attitude object and reported their attitudes frequently. Because of the resulting attitude stability, the attitude–behavior association was strongest when attitudes were confident, when participants formed their attitude on the basis of behavior-relevant information, and when they received or were induced to think about one- rather than two-sided information about the attitude object. PMID:16910754

Enabling the Analysis of Emergent Behavior in Future Electrical Distribution Systems Using Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sonja Kolen

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In future electrical distribution systems, component heterogeneity and their cyber-physical interactions through electrical lines and communication lead to emergent system behavior. As the distribution systems represent the largest part of an energy system with respect to the number of nodes and components, large-scale studies of their emergent behavior are vital for the development of decentralized control strategies. This paper presents and evaluates DistAIX, a novel agent-based modeling and simulation tool to conduct such studies. The major novelty is a parallelization of the entire model—including the power system, communication system, control, and all interactions—using processes instead of threads. Thereby, a distribution of the simulation to multiple computing nodes with a distributed memory architecture becomes possible. This makes DistAIX scalable and allows the inclusion of as many processing units in the simulation as desired. The scalability of DistAIX is demonstrated by simulations of large-scale scenarios. Additionally, the capability of observing emergent behavior is demonstrated for an exemplary distribution grid with a large number of interacting components.

Phishing Detection: Analysis of Visual Similarity Based Approaches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ankit Kumar Jain

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Phishing is one of the major problems faced by cyber-world and leads to financial losses for both industries and individuals. Detection of phishing attack with high accuracy has always been a challenging issue. At present, visual similarities based techniques are very useful for detecting phishing websites efficiently. Phishing website looks very similar in appearance to its corresponding legitimate website to deceive users into believing that they are browsing the correct website. Visual similarity based phishing detection techniques utilise the feature set like text content, text format, HTML tags, Cascading Style Sheet (CSS, image, and so forth, to make the decision. These approaches compare the suspicious website with the corresponding legitimate website by using various features and if the similarity is greater than the predefined threshold value then it is declared phishing. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of phishing attacks, their exploitation, some of the recent visual similarity based approaches for phishing detection, and its comparative study. Our survey provides a better understanding of the problem, current solution space, and scope of future research to deal with phishing attacks efficiently using visual similarity based approaches.

Community-based dental education: history, current status, and future.

Science.gov (United States)

Formicola, Allan J; Bailit, Howard L

2012-01-01

This article examines the history, current status, and future direction of community-based dental education (CBDE). The key issues addressed include the reasons that dentistry developed a different clinical education model than the other health professions; how government programs, private medical foundations, and early adopter schools influenced the development of CBDE; the societal and financial factors that are leading more schools to increase the time that senior dental students spend in community programs; the impact of CBDE on school finances and faculty and student perceptions; and the reasons that CBDE is likely to become a core part of the clinical education of all dental graduates.

Study on spillover effect of copper futures between LME and SHFE using wavelet multiresolution analysis

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2007-01-01

Research on information spillover effects between financial markets remains active in the economic community. A Granger-type model has recently been used to investigate the spillover between London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), however, possible correlation between the future price and return on different time scales have been ignored. In this paper, wavelet multiresolution decomposition is used to investigate the spillover effects of copper future returns between the two markets. The daily return time series are decomposed on 2n (n=1, ..., 6) frequency bands through wavelet multiresolution analysis. The correlation between the two markets is studied with decomposed data. It is shown that high frequency detail components represent much more energy than low-frequency smooth components. The relation between copper future daily returns in LME and that in SHFE are different on different time scales. The fluctuations of the copper future daily returns in LME have large effect on that in SHFE in 32-day scale, but small effect in high frequency scales. It also has evidence that strong effects exist between LME and SHFE for monthly responses of the copper futures but not for daily responses.

Impacts and Implications of Future-oriented Technology Analysis for Policy and Decision Making

OpenAIRE

SARITAS Ozcan; CAGNIN CRISTIANO; HAVAS Attila; MILES Ian

2009-01-01

Most of the papers in this special issue were presented at the Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) that took place in October 2008. They address a wide variety of issues in FTA including methods and policy and governance impacts with discussions and demonstrations at the regional and corporate levels.

Efficacy of computer technology-based HIV prevention interventions: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Noar, Seth M; Black, Hulda G; Pierce, Larson B

2009-01-02

To conduct a meta-analysis of computer technology-based HIV prevention behavioral interventions aimed at increasing condom use among a variety of at-risk populations. Systematic review and meta-analysis of existing published and unpublished studies testing computer-based interventions. Meta-analytic techniques were used to compute and aggregate effect sizes for 12 randomized controlled trials that met inclusion criteria. Variables that had the potential to moderate intervention efficacy were also tested. The overall mean weighted effect size for condom use was d = 0.259 (95% confidence interval = 0.201, 0.317; Z = 8.74, P partners, and incident sexually transmitted diseases. In addition, interventions were significantly more efficacious when they were directed at men or women (versus mixed sex groups), utilized individualized tailoring, used a Stages of Change model, and had more intervention sessions. Computer technology-based HIV prevention interventions have similar efficacy to more traditional human-delivered interventions. Given their low cost to deliver, ability to customize intervention content, and flexible dissemination channels, they hold much promise for the future of HIV prevention.

Estimating likelihood of future crashes for crash-prone drivers

OpenAIRE

Subasish Das; Xiaoduan Sun; Fan Wang; Charles Leboeuf

2015-01-01

At-fault crash-prone drivers are usually considered as the high risk group for possible future incidents or crashes. In Louisiana, 34% of crashes are repeatedly committed by the at-fault crash-prone drivers who represent only 5% of the total licensed drivers in the state. This research has conducted an exploratory data analysis based on the driver faultiness and proneness. The objective of this study is to develop a crash prediction model to estimate the likelihood of future crashes for the a...

Future orientation and smoking cessation: secondary analysis of data from a smoking cessation trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Beenstock, Jane; Lindson-Hawley, Nicola; Aveyard, Paul; Adams, Jean

2014-10-01

To examine the association between future orientation (how individuals consider and value outcomes in the future) and smoking cessation at 4 weeks and 6 months post quit-date in individuals enrolled in a smoking cessation study. Cohort analysis of randomized controlled trial data. UK primary care. Adults aged ≥18 years smoking ≥15 cigarettes daily, prepared to quit in the next 2 weeks. Future orientation was measured prior to quitting and at 4 weeks post-quitting using the Consideration of Future Consequences Scale. Smoking cessation at 4 weeks and 6 months was confirmed biochemically. Those lost to follow-up were assumed to not be abstinent. Potential confounders adjusted for were: age, gender, educational attainment, nicotine dependence and longest previous period quit. A total of 697 participants provided data at baseline; 422 provided information on future orientation at 4 weeks. There was no evidence of an association between future orientation at baseline and abstinence at 4 weeks [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.05, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.80-1.38] or 6 months (aOR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.60-1.20). There was no change in future orientation from baseline to 4 weeks and no evidence that the change differed between those who were and were not quit at 4 weeks (adjusted regression coefficient = -0.04, 95% CI = -0.16 to 0.08). In smokers who are prepared to quit in the next 2 weeks, the extent of future orientation is unlikely to be a strong predictor of quitting over 4 weeks or 6 months and any increase in future orientation following quitting is likely to be small. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Complications following Nipple-Sparing Mastectomy and Immediate Acellular Dermal Matrix Implant-based Breast Reconstruction—A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lene Nyhøj Heidemann, MD

2018-01-01

Conclusion:. The use of acellular dermal matrix in nipple-sparing mastectomy and implant-based breast reconstruction can be done with acceptable complication rates in selected patients. We recommend future studies to include specific definitions when reporting complication rates. Furthermore, future studies should elaborate on demographic characteristics of the included study samples and include predictor analysis to enhance knowledge of high risk patients.

Current and future sustainable biofuels - Summary; Dagens och framtidens haallbara biodrivmedel - Sammanfattning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boerjesson, Paal [Lunds Univ., Lund (Sweden); Lundgren, Joakim [Luleaa Tekniska Univ., Luleaa (Sweden); Ahlgren, Serina [Sveriges Lantbruksuniv., Uppsala (Sweden); Nystroem, Ingrid [Swedish Knowledge Centre for Renewable Transportation Fuels, Goeteborg (Sweden); CIT Industriell Energi., Goeteborg (Sweden)

2013-09-01

This report has been prepared as a background paper for the state investigation 'Fossil Free Vehicle Traffic'. The purpose of this study is to describe and summarize the current knowledge on production of biofuels and linkages to sustainability issues such as energy and land efficiency, GHG performance and costs. The report includes both existing and future fuel systems under development and based on different raw materials and production processes. The study has primarily a Swedish perspective, but with international views. The report includes both existing and future fuel systems under development, and based on different raw materials and production processes. The study has primarily a Swedish perspective, but with international views. The report's analysis of energy efficiency, greenhouse gas performance and production costs is based on system analysis and a life-cycle perspective. The focus is on the production chain to the produced fuel (well-to-tank). Results are based on current research and commercial development of the respective chains. They are based primarily from standardized life cycle analysis and, in some production systems, also on industrial systems analysis. These two approaches have some differences in methodology, which are highlighted in the report. In the overview values and results have been compiled to make it possible to compare the results.

Base technology approaches in materials research for future nuclear applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kondo, Tatsuo

1992-01-01

In the development of advanced nuclear systems for future, majority of critical issues in material research and development are more or less related with the effects of neutron irradiation. The approaches to those issues in the past have been mainly concerned with interpretation of the facts and minor modification of existing materials, having been inevitably of passive nature. In combating against predicted complex effects arising from variety of critical parameters, approaches must be reviewed more strategically. Some attempts of shifting research programs to such a direction have been made at JAERI in the Base (Common) Technology Programs either by adding to or restructuring the existing tasks. Major tasks currently in progress after the reorientation are categorized in several disciplines including new tasks for material innovation and concept development for neutron sources. The efforts have been set forth since 1988, and a few of them are now mature to transfer to the tasks in the projects of advanced reactors. The paper reviews the status of some typical activities emphasizing the effects of the reorientation and possible extensions of the outcomes to future applications. (author)

Program for Plasma-Based Concepts for Future High Energy Accelerators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Katsouleas, Thomas C.; Muggli, Patric

2003-01-01

OAK B204 Program for Plasma-Based Concepts for Future High Energy Accelerators. The progress made under this program in the period since November 15, 2002 is reflected in this report. The main activities for this period were to conduct the first run of the E-164 high-gradient wakefield experiment at SLAC, to prepare for run 2 and to continue our collaborative effort with CERN to model electron cloud interactions in circular accelerators. Each of these is described. Also attached to this report are papers that were prepared or appeared during this period

Impact of computer advances on future finite elements computations. [for aircraft and spacecraft design

Science.gov (United States)

Fulton, Robert E.

1985-01-01

Research performed over the past 10 years in engineering data base management and parallel computing is discussed, and certain opportunities for research toward the next generation of structural analysis capability are proposed. Particular attention is given to data base management associated with the IPAD project and parallel processing associated with the Finite Element Machine project, both sponsored by NASA, and a near term strategy for a distributed structural analysis capability based on relational data base management software and parallel computers for a future structural analysis system.

Future trends in computer waste generation in India.

Science.gov (United States)

Dwivedy, Maheshwar; Mittal, R K

2010-11-01

The objective of this paper is to estimate the future projection of computer waste in India and to subsequently analyze their flow at the end of their useful phase. For this purpose, the study utilizes the logistic model-based approach proposed by Yang and Williams to forecast future trends in computer waste. The model estimates future projection of computer penetration rate utilizing their first lifespan distribution and historical sales data. A bounding analysis on the future carrying capacity was simulated using the three parameter logistic curve. The observed obsolete generation quantities from the extrapolated penetration rates are then used to model the disposal phase. The results of the bounding analysis indicate that in the year 2020, around 41-152 million units of computers will become obsolete. The obsolete computer generation quantities are then used to estimate the End-of-Life outflows by utilizing a time-series multiple lifespan model. Even a conservative estimate of the future recycling capacity of PCs will reach upwards of 30 million units during 2025. Apparently, more than 150 million units could be potentially recycled in the upper bound case. However, considering significant future investment in the e-waste recycling sector from all stakeholders in India, we propose a logistic growth in the recycling rate and estimate the requirement of recycling capacity between 60 and 400 million units for the lower and upper bound case during 2025. Finally, we compare the future obsolete PC generation amount of the US and India. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computer-based quantitative computed tomography image analysis in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: A mini review.

Science.gov (United States)

Ohkubo, Hirotsugu; Nakagawa, Hiroaki; Niimi, Akio

2018-01-01

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is the most common type of progressive idiopathic interstitial pneumonia in adults. Many computer-based image analysis methods of chest computed tomography (CT) used in patients with IPF include the mean CT value of the whole lungs, density histogram analysis, density mask technique, and texture classification methods. Most of these methods offer good assessment of pulmonary functions, disease progression, and mortality. Each method has merits that can be used in clinical practice. One of the texture classification methods is reported to be superior to visual CT scoring by radiologist for correlation with pulmonary function and prediction of mortality. In this mini review, we summarize the current literature on computer-based CT image analysis of IPF and discuss its limitations and several future directions. Copyright © 2017 The Japanese Respiratory Society. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Web-based access, aggregation, and visualization of future climate projections with emphasis on agricultural assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Villoria, Nelson B.; Elliott, Joshua; Müller, Christoph; Shin, Jaewoo; Zhao, Lan; Song, Carol

2018-01-01

Access to climate and spatial datasets by non-specialists is restricted by technical barriers involving hardware, software and data formats. We discuss an open-source online tool that facilitates downloading the climate data from the global circulation models used by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. The tool also offers temporal and spatial aggregation capabilities for incorporating future climate scenarios in applications where spatial aggregation is important. We hope that streamlined access to these data facilitates analysis of climate related issues while considering the uncertainties derived from future climate projections and temporal aggregation choices.

The future of climate science analysis in a coming era of exascale computing

Science.gov (United States)

Bates, S. C.; Strand, G.

2013-12-01

Projections of Community Earth System Model (CESM) output based on the growth of data archived over 2000-2012 at all of our computing sites (NCAR, NERSC, ORNL) show that we can expect to reach 1,000 PB (1 EB) sometime in the next decade or so. The current paradigms of using site-based archival systems to hold these data that are then accessed via portals or gateways, downloading the data to a local system, and then processing/analyzing the data will be irretrievably broken before then. From a climate modeling perspective, the expertise involved in making climate models themselves efficient on HPC systems will need to be applied to the data as well - providing fast parallel analysis tools co-resident in memory with the data, because the disk I/O bandwidth simply will not keep up with the expected arrival of exaflop systems. The ability of scientists, analysts, stakeholders and others to use climate model output to turn these data into understanding and knowledge will require significant advances in the current typical analysis tools and packages to enable these processes for these vast volumes of data. Allowing data users to enact their own analyses on model output is virtually a requirement as well - climate modelers cannot anticipate all the possibilities for analysis that users may want to do. In addition, the expertise of data scientists, and their knowledge of the model output and their knowledge of best practices in data management (metadata, curation, provenance and so on) will need to be rewarded and exploited to gain the most understanding possible from these volumes of data. In response to growing data size, demand, and future projections, the CESM output has undergone a structure evolution and the data management plan has been reevaluated and updated. The major evolution of the CESM data structure is presented here, along with the CESM experience and role within the CMIP3/CMIP5.

Omics-based nanomedicine: the future of personalized oncology.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenblum, Daniel; Peer, Dan

2014-09-28

The traditional "one treatment fits all" paradigm disregards the heterogeneity between cancer patients, and within a particular tumor, thus limit the success of common treatments. Moreover, current treatment lacks specificity and therefore most of the anticancer drugs induce severe adverse effects. Personalized medicine aims to individualize therapeutic interventions, based on the growing knowledge of the human multiple '-oms' (e.g. genome, epigenome, transcriptome, proteome and metabolome), which has led to the discovery of various biomarkers that can be used to detect early stage cancers and predict tumor progression, drug response, and clinical outcome. Nanomedicine, the application of nanotechnology to healthcare, holds great promise for revolutionizing disease management such as drug delivery, molecular imaging, reduced adverse effects and the ability to contain both therapeutic and diagnostic modalities simultaneously termed theranostics. Personalizednanomedicine has the power of combining nanomedicine with clinical and molecular biomarkers ("OMICS" data) achieving improve prognosis and disease management as well as individualized drug selection and dosage profiling to ensure maximal efficacy and safety. Tumor's heterogeneity sets a countless challenge for future personalized therapy in cancer, however the use of multi-parameter 'omic's data for specific molecular biomarkers recognition together with versatile drug delivery nanocarriers, which could target concomitantly and specifically tumor cells subpopulations, might heralds a brighter future for personalized cancer management. In this review, we present the current leading technologies available for personalized oncology. We discusses the immense potential of combining the best of these two worlds, nanomedicine and high throughput OMICS technologies to pave the way towards cancer personalized medicine. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global Energy Assessment. Toward a Sustainable Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johansson, T B; Nakicenovic, N; Patwardhan, A; Gomez-Echeverri, L [eds.

2012-11-01

The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) brings together over 300 international researchers to provide an independent, scientifically based, integrated and policy-relevant analysis of current and emerging energy issues and options. It has been peer-reviewed anonymously by an additional 200 international experts. The GEA assesses the major global challenges for sustainable development and their linkages to energy; the technologies and resources available for providing energy services; future energy systems that address the major challenges; and the policies and other measures that are needed to realize transformational change toward sustainable energy futures. The GEA goes beyond existing studies on energy issues by presenting a comprehensive and integrated analysis of energy challenges, opportunities and strategies, for developing, industrialized and emerging economies. This volume is an invaluable resource for energy specialists and technologists in all sectors (academia, industry and government) as well as policymakers, development economists and practitioners in international organizations and national governments.

[Theoretical and methodological bases for formation of future drivers 'readiness to application of physical-rehabilitation technologies].

Science.gov (United States)

Yemets, Anatoliy V; Donchenko, Viktoriya I; Scrinick, Eugenia O

2018-01-01

Introduction: Experimental work is aimed at introducing theoretical and methodological foundations for the professional training of the future doctor. The aim: Identify the dynamics of quantitative and qualitative indicators of the readiness of a specialist in medicine. Materials and methods: The article presents the course and results of the experimental work of the conditions of forming the readiness of future specialists in medicine. Results: Our methodical bases for studying the disciplines of the general practice and specialized professional stage of experimental training of future physicians have been worked out. Conclusions: It is developed taking into account the peculiarities of future physician training of materials for various stages of experimental implementation in the educational process of higher medical educational institutions.

ICWorld: An MMOG-Based Approach to Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wyatt Wong

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Intelligence analysts routinely work with "wicked" problems—critical,time-sensitive problems where analytical errors can lead to catastrophic consequences for the nation's security. In the analyst's world, important decisions are often made quickly, and are made based on consuming, understanding, and piecing together enormous volumes of data. The data is not only voluminous, but often fragmented, subjective, inaccurate and fluid.Why does multi-player on-line gaming (MMOG technology matter to the IC? Fundamentally, there are two reasons. The first is technological: stripping away the gamelike content, MMOGs are dynamic systems that represent a physical world, where users are presented with (virtual life-and-death challenges that can only be overcome through planning, collaboration and communication. The second is cultural: the emerging generation of analysts is part of what is sometimes called the "Digital Natives" (Prensky 2001 and is fluent with interactive media. MMOGs enable faster visualization, data manipulation, collaboration and analysis than traditional text and imagery.ICWorld is an MMOG approach to intelligence analysis that fuses ideasfrom experts in the fields of gaming and data visualization, with knowledge of current and future intelligence analysis processes and tools. The concept has evolved over the last year as a result of evaluations by allsource analysts from around the IC. When fully developed, the Forterra team believes that ICWorld will fundamentally address major shortcomings of intelligence analysis, and dramatically improve the effectiveness of intelligence products.

Use of crops and livestock futures contracts in portfolios: an analysis of feasibility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mattos Fabio L.

2003-01-01

Full Text Available According to Portfolio Theory, by combining assets that show a correlation inferior to one (1 among their individual returns, it becomes possible to create portfolios that reduce risk without damaging expected return. Crop and livestock futures contracts and company stocks show such a characteristic, which signals potential benefits when forming portfolios combining these two types of assets. This investment strategy is not often utilized in Brazil. The purpose of our research was to assess whether such an asset combination is actually advantageous to those creating investment portfolios in the Brazilian market. Our evaluation used instruments of analysis developed by Markowitz in Portfolio Theory and data about the return from crop and livestock futures contracts and stocks. The data was gathered from the Brazilian Futures and Commodities Exchange (BM&F and Brazil?s National Association of Open Market Institutions (ANDIMA between July 1994 and December 1998. The results of this work showed that the combination of these two types of assets in investment portfolios can be an interesting portfolio management alternative.

The future use of pathway analysis in IAEA safeguards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Budlong Sylvester, Kory; Pilat, J.; Murphy, Chantell

2013-01-01

Pathway analysis has the potential to play an important role in the development of a safeguards system that is more information driven, leveraging all the information available to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Pathway analysis should be seen as an extension of traditional hypothesis testing used by the Agency in the past. The most attractive pathways based on the assessed capabilities of a given state can be identified and used in the development of state-level safeguards approaches. This ranking of pathways can be revised based on evidence of pathway use, or preparations for use, allowing limited safeguards resources to flow to the areas of highest concern. The possible uses of pathway analysis in the implementation of the IAEA's state-level concept are described along with implementation issues that will likely arise. The paper is followed by the slides of the presentation. (authors)

Machine-Learning-Based Future Received Signal Strength Prediction Using Depth Images for mmWave Communications

OpenAIRE

Okamoto, Hironao; Nishio, Takayuki; Nakashima, Kota; Koda, Yusuke; Yamamoto, Koji; Morikura, Masahiro; Asai, Yusuke; Miyatake, Ryo

2018-01-01

This paper discusses a machine-learning (ML)-based future received signal strength (RSS) prediction scheme using depth camera images for millimeter-wave (mmWave) networks. The scheme provides the future RSS prediction of any mmWave links within the camera's view, including links where nodes are not transmitting frames. This enables network controllers to conduct network operations before line-of-sight path blockages degrade the RSS. Using the ML techniques, the prediction scheme automatically...

Laser Therapy and Dementia: A Database Analysis and Future Aspects on LED-Based Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniela Litscher

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Mainly because of the movement in the age pyramid, one can assume that the incidence of Alzheimer’s disease or dementia in general will increase in the coming decades. This paper employs a database analysis to examine the profile of publication activity related to this topic. Two databases were searched: PubMed and Cochrane Library. About 600 papers related to the research area “dementia and laser” and about 450 papers related to the search terms “Alzheimer and laser” were found in these two most commonly used databases. Ten plus one papers are described in detail and are discussed in the context of the laser research performed at the Medical University of Graz. First results concerning the measurement of the transmission factor (TF through the human skull of a new LED- (light emitting diode- based system are presented (TF = 0.0434 ± 0.0104 (SD. The measurements show that this LED system (using the QIT (quantum optical induced transparency effect might be used in the treatment of dementia.

Analysis of Hybrid-Integrated High-Speed Electro-Absorption Modulated Lasers Based on EM/Circuit Co-simulation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Tom Keinicke; Krozer, Viktor; Kazmierski, C.

2009-01-01

An improved electromagnetic simulation (EM) based approach has been developed for optimization of the electrical to optical (E/O) transmission properties of integrated electro-absorption modulated lasers (EMLs) aiming at 100 Gbit/s Ethernet applications. Our approach allows for an accurate analysis...... of the EML performance in a hybrid microstrip assembly. The established EM-based approach provides a design methodology for the future hybrid integration of the EML with its driving electronics....

Beyond integrated safeguards: Performance-based assessments for future nuclear controls

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pilat, Joseph F.; Budlong Sylvester, Kory W.

2001-01-01

Full text: In the future, if the nuclear nonproliferation and arms control agendas are to advance, they will likely become increasingly seen as parallel undertakings with the objective of comprehensive cradle-to-grave controls over nuclear materials and possibly even warheads removed from defense programs along with materials in civilian use. This 'back to the future' prospect was envisioned in the Acheson-Lillienthal Report and the Baruch Plan, and more modestly in the Atoms-for-Peace Proposal. Unlike the grand plans of the early nuclear years, today's and tomorrow's undertakings will more likely consist of a series of incremental steps with the goal of expanding nuclear controls. These steps will be undertaken at a time of fundamental change in the IAEA safeguards system, and they will be influenced by those changes in profound ways. This prospective influence needs to be taken into account as the IAEA develops and implements integrated safeguards, including its efforts to establish new safeguards criteria, undertake technological and administrative improvements in safeguards, implement credible capabilities for the detection of undeclared nuclear facilities and activities and, perhaps, provide for a more intensive involvement in applying safeguards in new roles such as the verification of a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty. Performance-based criteria offer one promising way to address the effectiveness of integrated safeguards and to provide a common means of assessing the other key areas of a comprehensive approach to nuclear controls as these develop independently and to the extent that they are coordinated in the future. (author)

Application of State Analysis and Goal-based Operations to a MER Mission Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, John Richard; Ingham, Michel D.; Mishkin, Andrew H.; Rasmussen, Robert D.; Starbird, Thomas W.

2006-01-01

State Analysis is a model-based systems engineering methodology employing a rigorous discovery process which articulates operations concepts and operability needs as an integrated part of system design. The process produces requirements on system and software design in the form of explicit models which describe the system behavior in terms of state variables and the relationships among them. By applying State Analysis to an actual MER flight mission scenario, this study addresses the specific real world challenges of complex space operations and explores technologies that can be brought to bear on future missions. The paper first describes the tools currently used on a daily basis for MER operations planning and provides an in-depth description of the planning process, in the context of a Martian day's worth of rover engineering activities, resource modeling, flight rules, science observations, and more. It then describes how State Analysis allows for the specification of a corresponding goal-based sequence that accomplishes the same objectives, with several important additional benefits.

Developing web-based data analysis tools for precision farming using R and Shiny

Science.gov (United States)

Jahanshiri, Ebrahim; Mohd Shariff, Abdul Rashid

2014-06-01

Technologies that are set to increase the productivity of agricultural practices require more and more data. Nevertheless, farming data is also being increasingly cheap to collect and maintain. Bulk of data that are collected by the sensors and samples need to be analysed in an efficient and transparent manner. Web technologies have long being used to develop applications that can assist the farmers and managers. However until recently, analysing the data in an online environment has not been an easy task especially in the eyes of data analysts. This barrier is now overcome by the availability of new application programming interfaces that can provide real-time web based data analysis. In this paper developing a prototype web based application for data analysis using new facilities in R statistical package and its web development facility, Shiny is explored. The pros and cons of this type of data analysis environment for precision farming are enumerated and future directions in web application development for agricultural data are discussed.

Developing web-based data analysis tools for precision farming using R and Shiny

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jahanshiri, Ebrahim; Shariff, Abdul Rashid Mohd

2014-01-01

Technologies that are set to increase the productivity of agricultural practices require more and more data. Nevertheless, farming data is also being increasingly cheap to collect and maintain. Bulk of data that are collected by the sensors and samples need to be analysed in an efficient and transparent manner. Web technologies have long being used to develop applications that can assist the farmers and managers. However until recently, analysing the data in an online environment has not been an easy task especially in the eyes of data analysts. This barrier is now overcome by the availability of new application programming interfaces that can provide real-time web based data analysis. In this paper developing a prototype web based application for data analysis using new facilities in R statistical package and its web development facility, Shiny is explored. The pros and cons of this type of data analysis environment for precision farming are enumerated and future directions in web application development for agricultural data are discussed

Functions of Expressions of Futurality in Professional Economic Texts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mikuláš Martin

2016-07-01

Full Text Available The aim of this corpus-based study is to identify the functions that selected expressions of futurality can express in professional economic texts. The classification of functions is established on the corpus of seven economic books. Excerpted instances of futural constructions are analysed with respect to textual and interpersonal functions as defined by Halliday. Futurality is interpreted broadly to include all lexical and grammatical means referring to the future. This approach makes it also possible to analyse futurality as a means of text coherence. Hence the core grammatical means are interpreted along with co-occurring lexical means under the two categories of functions to provide a comprehensive model of text coherence with regard to futurality. Frequency analysis shows that core futural expressions are not distributed equally throughout the corpus. While some expressions (e.g., will and the present simple tense dominate, others prove to be rather insignificant (e.g., be on the point/verge of, the present progressive tense. In addition, both lexical and grammatical constructions regularly co-occur in clusters, contributing to the coherence of the economic texts.

Intensity changes in future extreme precipitation: A statistical event-based approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

method, unchanged. The advantages of the suggested Pi-Td method of projecting future precipitation events from historic events is that it is simple to use, is less expensive time, computational and resource wise compared to a numerical model. The outcome can be used directly for hydrological and climatological studies and for impact analysis such as for flood risk assessments.

Cost-Savings Analysis of the Better Beginnings, Better Futures Community-Based Project for Young Children and Their Families: A 10-Year Follow-up.

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Ray DeV; Petrunka, Kelly; Khan, Shahriar; Howell-Moneta, Angela; Nelson, Geoffrey; Pancer, S Mark; Loomis, Colleen

2016-02-01

This study examined the long-term cost-savings of the Better Beginnings, Better Futures (BBBF) initiative, a community-based early intervention project for young children living in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods during their transition to primary school. A quasi-experimental, longitudinal two-group design was used to compare costs and outcomes for children and families in three BBBF project neighborhoods (n = 401) and two comparison neighborhoods (n = 225). A cost-savings analysis was conducted using all project costs for providing up to 4 years of BBBF programs when children were in junior kindergarten (JK) (4 years old) to grade 2 (8 years old). Data on 19 government service cost measures were collected from the longitudinal research sample from the time the youth were in JK through to grade 12 (18 years old), 10 years after ending project participation. The average family incremental net savings to government of providing the BBBF project was $6331 in 2014 Canadian dollars. When the BBBF monetary return to government as a ratio of savings to costs was calculated, for every dollar invested by the government, a return of $2.50 per family was saved. Findings from this study have important implications for government investments in early interventions focused on a successful transition to primary school as well as parenting programs and community development initiatives in support of children's development.

Future Contract Selection by Term Structure Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vasco Grossmann

2017-07-01

Full Text Available In futures markets, a single asset is generally represented by several contracts with different maturities. The selection of specific contracts is an inevitable task that also creates new opportunities, especially in terms of speculative trading. Evaluating immediate and upcoming trading costs for all considered contracts might lead to a significantly improved performance. Among that, even possible market inefficiencies might be taken into consideration. This research introduces and evaluates a new algorithm for the contract selection. The results are benchmarked and compared with established methods using a Monte Carlo simulation on different commodity and index futures.

News from the future

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Reinecke Hansen, Kenneth

2016-01-01

This article presents a corpus linguistic analysis of the development in future-oriented political journalism in four Danish newspapers in the period 1997–2013 (N = 2954 full articles = 1,553,038 word tokens). Keyword analysis and concordance analysis are applied within a framework of grammatical......-semantic theory of tense and modal verbs and semantic-pragmatic theory of time meaning, modality and speech acts. The results suggest, unexpectedly, that the newspapers – and news reports in particular – seem to have become less future-oriented in the period. At the same time, however, the articles...

Impact of Nuclear Energy Futures on Advanced Fuel Cycle Options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brent W. Dixon; Steven J. Piet

2004-01-01

The Nuclear Waste Policy Act requires the Secretary of Energy to inform Congress before 2010 on the need for a second geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel. By that time, the spent fuel discharged from current commercial reactors will exceed the statutory limit of the first repository (63,000 MTiHM commercial, 7,000 MT non-commercial). There are several approaches to eliminate the need for another repository in this century. This paper presents a high-level analysis of these spent fuel management options in the context of a full range of possible nuclear energy futures. The analysis indicates the best option to implement varies depending on the nuclear energy future selected. The first step in understanding the need for different spent fuel management approaches is to understand the size of potential spent fuel inventories. A full range of potential futures for domestic commercial nuclear energy is considered. These energy futures are as follows: 1. Existing License Completion - Based on existing spent fuel inventories plus extrapolation of future plant-by-plant discharges until the end of each operating license, including known license extensions. 2. Extended License Completion - Based on existing spent fuel inventories plus a plant-by-plant extrapolation of future discharges assuming on all operating plants having one 20-year extension. 3. Continuing Level Energy Generation - Based on extension of the current ∼100 GWe installed commercial base and average spent fuel discharge of 2100 MT/yr through the year 2100. 4. Continuing Market Share Generation - Based on a 1.8% compounded growth of the electricity market through the year 2100, matched by growing nuclear capacity and associated spent fuel discharge. 5. Growing Market Share Generation - Extension of current nuclear capacity and associated spent fuel discharge through 2100 with 3.2% growth representing 1.5% market growth (all energy, not just electricity) and 1.7% share growth. Share growth results in

Simplified life-cycle analysis of PV systems in buildings: present situation and future trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frankl, P.; Masini, A.; Gamberale, M.; Toccaceli, D.

1998-01-01

The integration of photovoltaic (PV) systems in buildings shows several advantages compared to conventional PV power plants. The main objectives of the present study are the quantitative evaluation of the benefits of building-integrated PV systems over their entire life-cycle and the identification of best solutions to maximise their energy efficiency and CO 2 mitigation potential. In order to achieve these objectives, a simplified life-cycle analysis (LCA) has been carried out. Firstly, a number of existing applications have been studied. Secondly, a parametric analysis of possible improvements in the balance-of-system (BOS) has been developed. Finally, the two steps have been combined with the analysis of crystalline silicon technologies. Results are reported in terms of several indicators: energy pay-back time, CO 2 yield and specific CO 2 emissions. The Indicators show that the integration of PV systems in buildings clearly increases the environmental benefits of present PV technology. These benefits will further increase with future PV technologies. Future optimised PV roof-integrated systems are expected to have an energy pay-back time of around 1-5 years (1 year with heat recovery) and to save during their lifetime more than 20 times the amount of CO 2 emitted during their manufacturing (34 times with heat recovery). (Author)

The Case of Web-Based Course on Taxation: Current Status, Problems and Future Improvement

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, Zhigang

This paper mainly introduces the case of the web-based course on taxation developed by Xiamen University. We analyze the current status, problems and future improvement of the web-based course. The web-based course has the basic contents and modules, but it has several problems including unclear object, lacking interaction, lacking examination module, lacking study management module, and the learning materials and the navigation are too simple. According to its problems, we put forward the measures to improve it.

Enhancing Student Motivation: A Longitudinal Intervention Study Based on Future Time Perspective Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Schuitema, Jaap; Peetsma, Thea; van der Veen, Ineke

2014-01-01

The authors investigated the effects of an intervention developed to enhance student motivation in the first years of secondary education. The intervention, based on future time perspective (FTP) theory, has been found to be effective in prevocational secondary education (T. T. D. Peetsma & I. Van der Veen, 2008, 2009). The authors extend the…

Transition Analysis of Promising U.S. Future Fuel Cycles Using ORION

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sunny, Eva E.; Worrall, Andrew; Peterson, Joshua L.; Powers, Jeffrey J.; Gehin, Jess C.; Gregg, Robert

2015-01-01

The US Department of Energy Office of Fuel Cycle Technologies performed an evaluation and screening (E&S) study of nuclear fuel cycle options to help prioritize future research and development decisions. Previous work for this E&S study focused on establishing equilibrium conditions for analysis examples of 40 nuclear fuel cycle evaluation groups (EGs) and evaluating their performance according to a set of 22 standardized metrics. Following the E&S study, additional studies are being conducted to assess transitioning from the current US fuel cycle to future fuel cycle options identified by the E&S study as being most promising. These studies help inform decisions on how to effectively achieve full transition, estimate the length of time needed to undergo transition from the current fuel cycle, and evaluate performance of nuclear systems and facilities in place during the transition. These studies also help identify any barriers to achieve transition. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Fuel Cycle Options Campaign team used ORION to analyze the transition pathway from the existing US nuclear fuel cycle—the once-through use of low-enriched-uranium (LEU) fuel in thermal-spectrum light water reactors (LWRs)—to a new fuel cycle with continuous recycling of plutonium and uranium in sodium fast reactors (SFRs). This paper discusses the analysis of the transition from an LWR to an SFR fleet using ORION, highlights the role of lifetime extensions of existing LWRs to aid transition, and discusses how a slight delay in SFR deployment can actually reduce the time to achieve an equilibrium fuel cycle.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of flood risk management decisions based on stationary and nonstationary model choices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rehan Balqis M.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Current practice in flood frequency analysis assumes that the stochastic properties of extreme floods follow that of stationary conditions. As human intervention and anthropogenic climate change influences in hydrometeorological variables are becoming evident in some places, there have been suggestions that nonstationary statistics would be better to represent the stochastic properties of the extreme floods. The probabilistic estimation of non-stationary models, however, is surrounded with uncertainty related to scarcity of observations and modelling complexities hence the difficulty to project the future condition. In the face of uncertain future and the subjectivity of model choices, this study attempts to demonstrate the practical implications of applying a nonstationary model and compares it with a stationary model in flood risk assessment. A fully integrated framework to simulate decision makers’ behaviour in flood frequency analysis is thereby developed. The framework is applied to hypothetical flood risk management decisions and the outcomes are compared with those of known underlying future conditions. Uncertainty of the economic performance of the risk-based decisions is assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. Sensitivity of the results is also tested by varying the possible magnitude of future changes. The application provides quantitative and qualitative comparative results that satisfy a preliminary analysis of whether the nonstationary model complexity should be applied to improve the economic performance of decisions. Results obtained from the case study shows that the relative differences of competing models for all considered possible future changes are small, suggesting that stationary assumptions are preferred to a shift to nonstationary statistics for practical application of flood risk management. Nevertheless, nonstationary assumption should also be considered during a planning stage in addition to stationary assumption

Key Concept Identification: A Comprehensive Analysis of Frequency and Topical Graph-Based Approaches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Aman

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Automatic key concept extraction from text is the main challenging task in information extraction, information retrieval and digital libraries, ontology learning, and text analysis. The statistical frequency and topical graph-based ranking are the two kinds of potentially powerful and leading unsupervised approaches in this area, devised to address the problem. To utilize the potential of these approaches and improve key concept identification, a comprehensive performance analysis of these approaches on datasets from different domains is needed. The objective of the study presented in this paper is to perform a comprehensive empirical analysis of selected frequency and topical graph-based algorithms for key concept extraction on three different datasets, to identify the major sources of error in these approaches. For experimental analysis, we have selected TF-IDF, KP-Miner and TopicRank. Three major sources of error, i.e., frequency errors, syntactical errors and semantical errors, and the factors that contribute to these errors are identified. Analysis of the results reveals that performance of the selected approaches is significantly degraded by these errors. These findings can help us develop an intelligent solution for key concept extraction in the future.

A Monte Carlo based decision-support tool for assessing generation portfolios in future carbon constrained electricity industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat; MacGill, Iain F.

2012-01-01

This paper presents a novel decision-support tool for assessing future generation portfolios in an increasingly uncertain electricity industry. The tool combines optimal generation mix concepts with Monte Carlo simulation and portfolio analysis techniques to determine expected overall industry costs, associated cost uncertainty, and expected CO 2 emissions for different generation portfolio mixes. The tool can incorporate complex and correlated probability distributions for estimated future fossil-fuel costs, carbon prices, plant investment costs, and demand, including price elasticity impacts. The intent of this tool is to facilitate risk-weighted generation investment and associated policy decision-making given uncertainties facing the electricity industry. Applications of this tool are demonstrated through a case study of an electricity industry with coal, CCGT, and OCGT facing future uncertainties. Results highlight some significant generation investment challenges, including the impacts of uncertain and correlated carbon and fossil-fuel prices, the role of future demand changes in response to electricity prices, and the impact of construction cost uncertainties on capital intensive generation. The tool can incorporate virtually any type of input probability distribution, and support sophisticated risk assessments of different portfolios, including downside economic risks. It can also assess portfolios against multi-criterion objectives such as greenhouse emissions as well as overall industry costs. - Highlights: ► Present a decision support tool to assist generation investment and policy making under uncertainty. ► Generation portfolios are assessed based on their expected costs, risks, and CO 2 emissions. ► There is tradeoff among expected cost, risks, and CO 2 emissions of generation portfolios. ► Investment challenges include economic impact of uncertainties and the effect of price elasticity. ► CO 2 emissions reduction depends on the mix of

Comparative Analysis of Discovery Function of Cotton Future Price among Different Regions——A Case Study of Xinjiang

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

2011-01-01

Through comparative analysis, We research the relationship between cotton future price and cotton spot price in different regions, in order to formulate corresponding strategies in different regions under the new situation. We use ADF unit root test, E-G two-step cointegration test, Granger causality test, and other research methods in Eviews 5.0 statistical software, to empirically study the relationship between the cotton future price and cotton spot price in Xinjiang, the relationship between the cotton future price and cotton spot price in China. The results show that there is a long-term relationship between the cotton future price and cotton spot price in Xinjiang, between the cotton future price and cotton spot price in China; the cotton future price plays unidirectional role in guiding cotton spot price in Xinjiang and cotton spot price in China. The discovery function of cotton future price plays much greater role in the cotton market of China than in the cotton market of Xinjiang.

“To see a world in a grain of sand”: Towards Future-oriented What-If Analysis in Narrative Research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sools, Anna Maria

2012-01-01

In this article, I explore narrative building blocks for future-oriented what-if (i.e., possibilities-generating) analysis developed in a health promotion study. The aim of this study was to gain insight into future possibilities for good health among participants known for their poor health status.

Environmental Scanning, Futures Research, Strategic Foresight and Organizational Future Orientation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rohrbeck, René; Bade, Manuel

to adjacent research disciplines. Through such integration and linkage research should produce better recommendations for managers on how to build an organizational future orientation, drive organizational adaptation, and make their firms robust towards external discontinuous change.......In this paper we explore the current understanding on how firms explore future changes and trends as well as plan their managerial responses. We review literature in four research streams: (1) environmental scanning, (2) futures research, (3) peripheral vision, and (4) corporate/strategic foresight....... Through the analysis of more than 250 articles we (a) trace the evolution over time, (b) highlight the linkages between the different research streams, and (c) give recommendations for future research. Overall we call for more cross-fertilization of the different research streams and a stronger linkage...

HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

Science.gov (United States)

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

Exploring the applicability of future air quality predictions based on synoptic system forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuval; Broday, David M.; Alpert, Pinhas

2012-01-01

For a given emissions inventory, the general levels of air pollutants and the spatial distribution of their concentrations are determined by the physiochemical state of the atmosphere. Apart from the trivial seasonal and daily cycles, most of the variability is associated with the atmospheric synoptic scale. A simple methodology for assessing future levels of air pollutants' concentrations based on synoptic forecasts is presented. At short time scales the methodology is comparable and slightly better than persistence and seasonal forecasts at categorical classification of pollution levels. It's utility is shown for air quality studies at the long time scale of a changing climate scenario, where seasonality and persistence cannot be used. It is demonstrated that the air quality variability due to changes in the pollution emissions can be expected to be much larger than that associated with the effects of climatic changes. - Highlights: ► A method for short and long term air quality forecasts is introduced. ► The method is based on prediction of synoptic systems. ► The method beats simple benchmarks in short term forecasts. ► Assessment of future air pollution in a changing climate scenario is demonstrated. - Air quality in a changing climate scenario can be studied using air pollution predictions based on synoptic system forecasts.

Exploration of the Future – a Key to Sustainable Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vatroslav Zovko

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Throughout the history people were fascinated and curious about the future. The future was, and still is seen as a key for prosperous development in all aspects of the society. As such, new discipline is developed – future studies.This paper discusses the discipline of future studies and its role in the society and science. Future studies are analyzed in the context of sustainable development. It is argued that future studies and sustainable development are complementary in nature. Based on analysis of most developed countries in the world, that spend the greatest portion of their budget on research, development and science in comparison to the rest of the world, there is a conclusive link between investments in research, development and science, and the recognition of the importance of thinking about the future. Those countries started to formalize their future orientation in many respected research centres and universities through their educational programs and research. That situation poses the need for other, less well off countries, to follow up.

DTI analysis methods : Voxel-based analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Hecke, Wim; Leemans, Alexander; Emsell, Louise

2016-01-01

Voxel-based analysis (VBA) of diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) data permits the investigation of voxel-wise differences or changes in DTI metrics in every voxel of a brain dataset. It is applied primarily in the exploratory analysis of hypothesized group-level alterations in DTI parameters, as it does

The identification of possible future provincial boundaries for South Africa based on an intramax analysis of journey-to-work data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

JH Nel

2008-12-01

Full Text Available National census data contain information on place of residence and place of work. It is possible to combine this information~and create journey-to-work flows. The process of establishing these flows are presented in this paper. The intramax method is explained and used to identify functional regions based upon these flows. Interesting applications, such as the demarcation of regions in South Africa are considered and solutions to disputed areas are put forward. The process of the creation of the current provincial boundaries are discussed. New boundaries, based on the intramax analysis of the journey-to-work data are proposed for four or five new provinces. Results compare favourably with those from a principal component and cluster analysis, which has previously been used to demarcate the South African space economy into a hierarchy of development regions.

The role of district heating in future renewable energy systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Henrik; Möller, Bernd; Mathiesen, Brian Vad

2010-01-01

Based on the case of Denmark, this paper analyses the role of district heating in future Renewable Energy Systems. At present, the share of renewable energy is coming close to 20 per cent. From such point of departure, the paper defines a scenario framework in which the Danish system is converted...... to 100 per cent Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in the year 2060 including reductions in space heating demands by 75 per cent. By use of a detailed energy system analysis of the complete national energy system, the consequences in relation to fuel demand, CO2 emissions and cost are calculated for various...... as in a potential future system based 100 per cent on renewable energy....

Principle-based concept analysis: intentionality in holistic nursing theories.

Science.gov (United States)

Aghebati, Nahid; Mohammadi, Eesa; Ahmadi, Fazlollah; Noaparast, Khosrow Bagheri

2015-03-01

This is a report of a principle-based concept analysis of intentionality in holistic nursing theories. A principle-based concept analysis method was used to analyze seven holistic theories. The data included eight books and 31 articles (1998-2011), which were retrieved through MEDLINE and CINAHL. Erickson, Kriger, Parse, Watson, and Zahourek define intentionality as a capacity, a focused consciousness, and a pattern of human being. Rogers and Newman do not explicitly mention intentionality; however, they do explain pattern and consciousness (epistemology). Intentionality has been operationalized as a core concept of nurse-client relationships (pragmatic). The theories are consistent on intentionality as a noun and as an attribute of the person-intentionality is different from intent and intention (linguistic). There is ambiguity concerning the boundaries between intentionality and consciousness (logic). Theoretically, intentionality is an evolutionary capacity to integrate human awareness and experience. Because intentionality is an individualized concept, we introduced it as "a matrix of continuous known changes" that emerges in two forms: as a capacity of human being and as a capacity of transpersonal caring. This study has produced a theoretical definition of intentionality and provides a foundation for future research to further investigate intentionality to better delineate its boundaries. © The Author(s) 2014.

Voxel-Based Morphometry ALE meta-analysis of Bipolar Disorder

Science.gov (United States)

Magana, Omar; Laird, Robert

2012-03-01

A meta-analysis was performed independently to view the changes in gray matter (GM) on patients with Bipolar disorder (BP). The meta-analysis was conducted on a Talairach Space using GingerALE to determine the voxels and their permutation. In order to achieve the data acquisition, published experiments and similar research studies were uploaded onto the online Voxel-Based Morphometry database (VBM). By doing so, coordinates of activation locations were extracted from Bipolar disorder related journals utilizing Sleuth. Once the coordinates of given experiments were selected and imported to GingerALE, a Gaussian was performed on all foci points to create the concentration points of GM on BP patients. The results included volume reductions and variations of GM between Normal Healthy controls and Patients with Bipolar disorder. A significant amount of GM clusters were obtained in Normal Healthy controls over BP patients on the right precentral gyrus, right anterior cingulate, and the left inferior frontal gyrus. In future research, more published journals could be uploaded onto the database and another VBM meta-analysis could be performed including more activation coordinates or a variation of age groups.

New design procedure development of future reactor critical power estimation. (1) Practical design-by-analysis method for BWR critical power design correlation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamamoto, Yasushi; Mitsutake, Toru

2007-01-01

For present BWR fuels, the full mock-up thermal-hydraulic test, such as the critical power measurement test, pressure drop measurement test and so on, has been needed. However, the full mock-up test required the high costs and large-scale test facility. At present, there are only a few test facilities to perform the full mock-up thermal-hydraulic test in the world. Moreover, for future BWR, the bundle size tends to be larger, because of reducing the plant construction costs and minimizing the routine check period. For instance, AB1600, improved ABWR, was proposed from Toshiba, whose bundle size was 1.2 times larger than the conventional BWR fuel size. It is too expensive and far from realistic to perform the full mock-up thermal-hydraulic test for such a large size fuel bundle. The new design procedure is required to realize the large scale bundle design development, especially for the future reactor. Therefore, the new design procedure, Practical Design-by-Analysis (PDBA) method, has been developed. This new procedure consists of the partial mock-up test and numerical analysis. At present, the subchannel analysis method based on three-fluid two-phase flow model only is a realistic choice. Firstly, the partial mock-up test is performed, for instance, the 1/4 partial mock-up bundle. Then, the first-step critical power correlation coefficients are evaluated with the measured data. The input data, such as the spacer effect model coefficient, on the subchannel analysis are also estimated with the data. Next, the radial power effect on the critical power of the full-bundle size was estimated with the subchannel analysis. Finally, the critical power correlation is modified by the subchannel analysis results. In the present study, the critical power correlation of the conventional 8x8 BWR fuel was developed with the PDBA method by 4x4 partial mock-up tests and the subchannel analysis code. The accuracy of the estimated critical power was 3.8%. The several themes remain to

Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

2017-05-01

The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets.

Science.gov (United States)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

2017-05-01

The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha -1  h -1  yr -1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

Personalized translational epilepsy research - Novel approaches and future perspectives: Part I: Clinical and network analysis approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenow, Felix; van Alphen, Natascha; Becker, Albert; Chiocchetti, Andreas; Deichmann, Ralf; Deller, Thomas; Freiman, Thomas; Freitag, Christine M; Gehrig, Johannes; Hermsen, Anke M; Jedlicka, Peter; Kell, Christian; Klein, Karl Martin; Knake, Susanne; Kullmann, Dimitri M; Liebner, Stefan; Norwood, Braxton A; Omigie, Diana; Plate, Karlheinz; Reif, Andreas; Reif, Philipp S; Reiss, Yvonne; Roeper, Jochen; Ronellenfitsch, Michael W; Schorge, Stephanie; Schratt, Gerhard; Schwarzacher, Stephan W; Steinbach, Joachim P; Strzelczyk, Adam; Triesch, Jochen; Wagner, Marlies; Walker, Matthew C; von Wegner, Frederic; Bauer, Sebastian

2017-11-01

Despite the availability of more than 15 new "antiepileptic drugs", the proportion of patients with pharmacoresistant epilepsy has remained constant at about 20-30%. Furthermore, no disease-modifying treatments shown to prevent the development of epilepsy following an initial precipitating brain injury or to reverse established epilepsy have been identified to date. This is likely in part due to the polyetiologic nature of epilepsy, which in turn requires personalized medicine approaches. Recent advances in imaging, pathology, genetics and epigenetics have led to new pathophysiological concepts and the identification of monogenic causes of epilepsy. In the context of these advances, the First International Symposium on Personalized Translational Epilepsy Research (1st ISymPTER) was held in Frankfurt on September 8, 2016, to discuss novel approaches and future perspectives for personalized translational research. These included new developments and ideas in a range of experimental and clinical areas such as deep phenotyping, quantitative brain imaging, EEG/MEG-based analysis of network dysfunction, tissue-based translational studies, innate immunity mechanisms, microRNA as treatment targets, functional characterization of genetic variants in human cell models and rodent organotypic slice cultures, personalized treatment approaches for monogenic epilepsies, blood-brain barrier dysfunction, therapeutic focal tissue modification, computational modeling for target and biomarker identification, and cost analysis in (monogenic) disease and its treatment. This report on the meeting proceedings is aimed at stimulating much needed investments of time and resources in personalized translational epilepsy research. Part I includes the clinical phenotyping and diagnostic methods, EEG network-analysis, biomarkers, and personalized treatment approaches. In Part II, experimental and translational approaches will be discussed (Bauer et al., 2017) [1]. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc

FORECASTING COSMOLOGICAL PARAMETER CONSTRAINTS FROM NEAR-FUTURE SPACE-BASED GALAXY SURVEYS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pavlov, Anatoly; Ratra, Bharat; Samushia, Lado

2012-01-01

The next generation of space-based galaxy surveys is expected to measure the growth rate of structure to a level of about one percent over a range of redshifts. The rate of growth of structure as a function of redshift depends on the behavior of dark energy and so can be used to constrain parameters of dark energy models. In this work, we investigate how well these future data will be able to constrain the time dependence of the dark energy density. We consider parameterizations of the dark energy equation of state, such as XCDM and ωCDM, as well as a consistent physical model of time-evolving scalar field dark energy, φCDM. We show that if the standard, specially flat cosmological model is taken as a fiducial model of the universe, these near-future measurements of structure growth will be able to constrain the time dependence of scalar field dark energy density to a precision of about 10%, which is almost an order of magnitude better than what can be achieved from a compilation of currently available data sets.

Economic effects of propulsion system technology on existing and future transport aircraft

Science.gov (United States)

Sallee, G. P.

1974-01-01

The results of an airline study of the economic effects of propulsion system technology on current and future transport aircraft are presented. This report represents the results of a detailed study of propulsion system operating economics. The study has four major parts: (1) a detailed analysis of current propulsion system maintenance with respect to the material and labor costs encountered versus years in service and the design characteristics of the major elements of the propulsion system of the B707, b727, and B747. (2) an analysis of the economic impact of a future representative 1979 propulsion system is presented with emphasis on depreciation of investment, fuel costs and maintenance costs developed on the basis of the analysis of the historical trends observed. (3) recommendations concerning improved methods of forecasting the maintenance cost of future propulsion systems are presented. A detailed method based on the summation of the projected labor and material repair costs for each major engine module and its installation along with a shorter form suitable for quick, less detailed analysis are presented, and (4) recommendations concerning areas where additional technology is needed to improve the economics of future commercial propulsion systems are presented along with the suggested economic benefits available from such advanced technology efforts.

Analysis of Emergency Information Management Research Hotspots Based on Bibliometric and Co-occurrence Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zou Qingyun

2017-04-01

Full Text Available [Purpose/significance] Emergency information management is an interdisciplinary field of emergency management and information management. Summarizing the major research output is helpful to strengthen the effective utilization of information resources in emergency management research, and to provide references for the follow-up development and practical exploration of emergency information management research. [Method/process] By retrieving concerned literature from CNKI, this paper used the bibliometric and co-word clustering analysis methods to analyze the domestic emergency management research output. [Result/conclusion] Domestic emergency information management research mainly focuses on five hot topics: disaster emergency information management, crisis information disclosure, emergency information management system, emergency response, wisdom emergency management. China should strengthen the emergency management information base for future theoretical research, and build the emergency information management theoretical framework.

Qualitative analysis of interviews of future non-affective psychotic disorder patients and non-psychiatric controls: preliminary results

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katya Rubinstein

2014-03-01

Conclusions: The findings of this unique historical-prospective qualitative analysis of interviews performed before the onset of psychosis, confirmed previous findings of premorbid abnormality of future non-affective psychosis patients. Using qualitative analysis enabled obtaining a more in-depth understanding of the real-life experience of the premorbid period among patients with non-affective psychotic disorders.

Probabilistic Decision Based Block Partitioning for Future Video Coding

KAUST Repository

Wang, Zhao

2017-11-29

In the latest Joint Video Exploration Team development, the quadtree plus binary tree (QTBT) block partitioning structure has been proposed for future video coding. Compared to the traditional quadtree structure of High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC) standard, QTBT provides more flexible patterns for splitting the blocks, which results in dramatically increased combinations of block partitions and high computational complexity. In view of this, a confidence interval based early termination (CIET) scheme is proposed for QTBT to identify the unnecessary partition modes in the sense of rate-distortion (RD) optimization. In particular, a RD model is established to predict the RD cost of each partition pattern without the full encoding process. Subsequently, the mode decision problem is casted into a probabilistic framework to select the final partition based on the confidence interval decision strategy. Experimental results show that the proposed CIET algorithm can speed up QTBT block partitioning structure by reducing 54.7% encoding time with only 1.12% increase in terms of bit rate. Moreover, the proposed scheme performs consistently well for the high resolution sequences, of which the video coding efficiency is crucial in real applications.

Future-concepts of HRM in perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Neisig, Margit

This article deals with a systemic perspective on the transition of HRM. The field of study adresses how four recent contributions on HRM transition might be understood according to the framework of the reflective business paradigm (Holmström, 2005). The contributions are building on different...... streams of applied research penetrating future-concepts. Each of the contributions is from highly influential knowledge institutions. The contributions are chosen as to illuminate different elements of the HRM transition. A Luhmann based approach is applied creating a meta-analysis (a third order analysis......) of how the four contributions on HRM transition might be understood according to the framework of the reflective society and business paradigm...

The Future Path of Organic Farming - Values, Standards and Controversy!

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjærgård, Bente; Pedersen, Kirsten Bransholm; Land, Birgit

The study focuses on the recent debate about what is, or what constitutes, organic farming and what is the right path for organic farming in the future. The study is based on a critical discourse analysis of the controversy about suspending the private standard for organic farming adopted by the ...

News, volatility and jumps: the case of Natural Gas futures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Borovkova, S.A.; Mahakena, D.

2015-01-01

We investigate the impact of news sentiment on the price dynamics of natural gas futures. We propose a Local News Sentiment Level model, based on the Local Level model of Durbin and Koopman [Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods, 2001], to construct a running series of news sentiment from

Influence of economic factors on future global emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duffey, R.B.; Poehnell, T.G.; Miller, A.I.; Tamm, J.A.

2001-01-01

The climate change debate is really about economics, and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate change potential at a reasonable and acceptable cost for everyone. In this paper, we examine the major economic factors behind defining climate change policies that relate to reducing GHG emissions, and the value to be placed on CO 2 . We examine the impacts and the 'cost of carbon' based on the studies of GHG reduction strategies in the US and the European Union (EU). We show that a series of self-defeating assumptions have been used in the latest analyses regarding relative future energy and power costs, and hence future GHG emissions. We estimate: the 'natural value' of GHG emissions based on world economic factors, the value of electricity and energy based on world data, the cost advantage of using a given new technology, and the value of avoided GHG emissions in future global and national climate change projections. The use of electricity is shown to be key in aiding economic growth for the entire world. Using the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2000 climate change projections as a base, we reflect the impacts of differing energy prices on future global climate conditions and GHG reductions. We conduct a similar analysis for Canada using the latest 'Energy in Canada 2000' projections. We show how the use of advanced technology for the traditional production of electricity, and for hydrogen-based transportation fuels, can stabilize global emissions and assist in managing adverse climate change conditions without causing economic penalties. The method we develop is sufficiently general that it can be used for valuing the economic impact of the emission reductions for any technology. We estimate the embedded value and potential economic benefit of nuclear technology and electric contribution for both the world economy to 2100, and for the latest projections for Canada to 2020. (author)

Digital Holography, a metrological tool for quantitative analysis: Trends and future applications

Science.gov (United States)

Paturzo, Melania; Pagliarulo, Vito; Bianco, Vittorio; Memmolo, Pasquale; Miccio, Lisa; Merola, Francesco; Ferraro, Pietro

2018-05-01

A review on the last achievements of Digital Holography is reported in this paper, showing that this powerful method can be a key metrological tool for the quantitative analysis and non-invasive inspection of a variety of materials, devices and processes. Nowadays, its range of applications has been greatly extended, including the study of live biological matter and biomedical applications. This paper overviews the main progresses and future perspectives of digital holography, showing new optical configurations and investigating the numerical issues to be tackled for the processing and display of quantitative data.

Proposed Performance-Based Metrics for the Future Funding of Graduate Medical Education: Starting the Conversation.

Science.gov (United States)

Caverzagie, Kelly J; Lane, Susan W; Sharma, Niraj; Donnelly, John; Jaeger, Jeffrey R; Laird-Fick, Heather; Moriarty, John P; Moyer, Darilyn V; Wallach, Sara L; Wardrop, Richard M; Steinmann, Alwin F

2017-12-12

Graduate medical education (GME) in the United States is financed by contributions from both federal and state entities that total over $15 billion annually. Within institutions, these funds are distributed with limited transparency to achieve ill-defined outcomes. To address this, the Institute of Medicine convened a committee on the governance and financing of GME to recommend finance reform that would promote a physician training system that meets society's current and future needs. The resulting report provided several recommendations regarding the oversight and mechanisms of GME funding, including implementation of performance-based GME payments, but did not provide specific details about the content and development of metrics for these payments. To initiate a national conversation about performance-based GME funding, the authors asked: What should GME be held accountable for in exchange for public funding? In answer to this question, the authors propose 17 potential performance-based metrics for GME funding that could inform future funding decisions. Eight of the metrics are described as exemplars to add context and to help readers obtain a deeper understanding of the inherent complexities of performance-based GME funding. The authors also describe considerations and precautions for metric implementation.

Optimisation-based worst-case analysis and anti-windup synthesis for uncertain nonlinear systems

Science.gov (United States)

Menon, Prathyush Purushothama

This thesis describes the development and application of optimisation-based methods for worst-case analysis and anti-windup synthesis for uncertain nonlinear systems. The worst-case analysis methods developed in the thesis are applied to the problem of nonlinear flight control law clearance for highly augmented aircraft. Local, global and hybrid optimisation algorithms are employed to evaluate worst-case violations of a nonlinear response clearance criterion, for a highly realistic aircraft simulation model and flight control law. The reliability and computational overheads associated with different opti misation algorithms are compared, and the capability of optimisation-based approaches to clear flight control laws over continuous regions of the flight envelope is demonstrated. An optimisation-based method for computing worst-case pilot inputs is also developed, and compared with current industrial approaches for this problem. The importance of explicitly considering uncertainty in aircraft parameters when computing worst-case pilot demands is clearly demonstrated. Preliminary results on extending the proposed framework to the problems of limit-cycle analysis and robustness analysis in the pres ence of time-varying uncertainties are also included. A new method for the design of anti-windup compensators for nonlinear constrained systems controlled using nonlinear dynamics inversion control schemes is presented and successfully applied to some simple examples. An algorithm based on the use of global optimisation is proposed to design the anti-windup compensator. Some conclusions are drawn from the results of the research presented in the thesis, and directions for future work are identified.

Current and future sustainable biofuels; Dagens och framtidens haallbara biodrivmedel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boerjesson, Paal [Lunds Univ., Lund (Sweden); Lundgren, Joakim [Luleaa Univ. of Technology Bio4Energy, Luleaa (Sweden); Ahlgren, Serina [Sveriges Lantbruksuniv., Uppsala (Sweden)

2013-07-01

This report has been prepared as a background paper for the government study of Fossil-Free Vehicle traffic (FFF investigation). The purpose of this study is to describe and summarize the current knowledge on the production of biofuels and linkages to sustainability issues such as energy and land efficiency, GHG performance and costs. The report includes both existing and future fuel systems under development and based on different raw materials and production processes. The study has primarily a Swedish perspective, but with international outlooks. The report's analysis of energy efficiency, GHG performance and production costs are based on system analysis and a life-cycle perspective. The focus is on the production chain up to produced fuel (well-to-tank). Results are based on current research and production chains and is based primarily on standardized LCA and for some systems also on industrial systems analysis.

Current and future sustainable biofuels; Dagens och framtidens haallbara biodrivmedel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boerjesson, Paal [Lunds Univ., Lund (Sweden); Lundgren, Joakim [Luleaa Univ. of Technology Bio4Energy, Luleaa (Sweden); Ahlgren, Serina [Sveriges Lantbruksuniv., Uppsala (Sweden)

2013-07-01

This report has been prepared as a background paper for the government study of Fossil-Free Vehicle traffic (FFF investigation). The purpose of this study is to describe and summarize the current knowledge on the production of biofuels and linkages to sustainability issues such as energy and land efficiency, GHG performance and costs. The report includes both existing and future fuel systems under development and based on different raw materials and production processes. The study has primarily a Swedish perspective, but with international outlooks. The report's analysis of energy efficiency, GHG performance and production costs are based on system analysis and a life-cycle perspective. The focus is on the production chain up to produced fuel (well-to-tank). Results are based on current research and production chains and is based primarily on standardized LCA and for some systems also on industrial systems analysis.

The estimation of future surface water bodies at Olkiluoto area based on statistical terrain and land uplift models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pohjola, J.; Turunen, J.; Lipping, T. [Tampere Univ. of Technology (Finland); Ikonen, A.

2014-03-15

In this working report the modelling effort of future landscape development and surface water body formation at the modelling area in the vicinity of the Olkiluoto Island is presented. Estimation of the features of future surface water bodies is based on probabilistic terrain and land uplift models presented in previous working reports. The estimation is done using a GIS-based toolbox called UNTAMO. The future surface water bodies are estimated in 10 000 years' time span with 1000 years' intervals for the safety assessment of disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site. In the report a brief overview on the techniques used for probabilistic terrain modelling, land uplift modelling and hydrological modelling are presented first. The latter part of the report describes the results of the modelling effort. The main features of the future landscape - the four lakes forming in the vicinity of the Olkiluoto Island - are identified and the probabilistic model of the shoreline displacement is presented. The area and volume of the four lakes is modelled in a probabilistic manner. All the simulations have been performed for three scenarios two of which are based on 10 realizations of the probabilistic digital terrain model (DTM) and 10 realizations of the probabilistic land uplift model. These two scenarios differ from each other by the eustatic curve used in the land uplift model. The third scenario employs 50 realizations of the probabilistic DTM while a deterministic land uplift model, derived solely from the current land uplift rate, is used. The results indicate that the two scenarios based on the probabilistic land uplift model behave in a similar manner while the third model overestimates past and future land uplift rates. The main features of the landscape are nevertheless similar also for the third scenario. Prediction results for the volumes of the future lakes indicate that a couple of highly probably lake formation scenarios can be identified

The estimation of future surface water bodies at Olkiluoto area based on statistical terrain and land uplift models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pohjola, J.; Turunen, J.; Lipping, T.; Ikonen, A.

2014-03-01

In this working report the modelling effort of future landscape development and surface water body formation at the modelling area in the vicinity of the Olkiluoto Island is presented. Estimation of the features of future surface water bodies is based on probabilistic terrain and land uplift models presented in previous working reports. The estimation is done using a GIS-based toolbox called UNTAMO. The future surface water bodies are estimated in 10 000 years' time span with 1000 years' intervals for the safety assessment of disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site. In the report a brief overview on the techniques used for probabilistic terrain modelling, land uplift modelling and hydrological modelling are presented first. The latter part of the report describes the results of the modelling effort. The main features of the future landscape - the four lakes forming in the vicinity of the Olkiluoto Island - are identified and the probabilistic model of the shoreline displacement is presented. The area and volume of the four lakes is modelled in a probabilistic manner. All the simulations have been performed for three scenarios two of which are based on 10 realizations of the probabilistic digital terrain model (DTM) and 10 realizations of the probabilistic land uplift model. These two scenarios differ from each other by the eustatic curve used in the land uplift model. The third scenario employs 50 realizations of the probabilistic DTM while a deterministic land uplift model, derived solely from the current land uplift rate, is used. The results indicate that the two scenarios based on the probabilistic land uplift model behave in a similar manner while the third model overestimates past and future land uplift rates. The main features of the landscape are nevertheless similar also for the third scenario. Prediction results for the volumes of the future lakes indicate that a couple of highly probably lake formation scenarios can be identified with other

[Present status and trend of heart fluid mechanics research based on medical image analysis].

Science.gov (United States)

Gan, Jianhong; Yin, Lixue; Xie, Shenghua; Li, Wenhua; Lu, Jing; Luo, Anguo

2014-06-01

With introduction of current main methods for heart fluid mechanics researches, we studied the characteristics and weakness for three primary analysis methods based on magnetic resonance imaging, color Doppler ultrasound and grayscale ultrasound image, respectively. It is pointed out that particle image velocity (PIV), speckle tracking and block match have the same nature, and three algorithms all adopt block correlation. The further analysis shows that, with the development of information technology and sensor, the research for cardiac function and fluid mechanics will focus on energy transfer process of heart fluid, characteristics of Chamber wall related to blood fluid and Fluid-structure interaction in the future heart fluid mechanics fields.

Anatomical specificity of vascular endothelial growth factor expression in glioblastomas: a voxel-based mapping analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fan, Xing [Capital Medical University, Department of Neurosurgery, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Beijing (China); Wang, Yinyan [Capital Medical University, Department of Neurosurgery, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Beijing (China); Capital Medical University, Department of Neuropathology, Beijing Neurosurgical Institute, Beijing (China); Wang, Kai; Ma, Jun; Li, Shaowu [Capital Medical University, Department of Neuroradiology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Beijing (China); Liu, Shuai [Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Departments of Neurosurgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Beijing (China); Liu, Yong [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Brainnetome Center, Institute of Automation, Beijing (China); Jiang, Tao [Capital Medical University, Department of Neurosurgery, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Beijing (China); Beijing Academy of Critical Illness in Brain, Department of Clinical Oncology, Beijing (China)

2016-01-15

The expression of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is a common genetic alteration in malignant gliomas and contributes to the angiogenesis of tumors. This study aimed to investigate the anatomical specificity of VEGF expression levels in glioblastomas using voxel-based neuroimaging analysis. Clinical information, MR scans, and immunohistochemistry stains of 209 patients with glioblastomas were reviewed. All tumor lesions were segmented manually and subsequently registered to standard brain space. Voxel-based regression analysis was performed to correlate the brain regions of tumor involvement with the level of VEGF expression. Brain regions identified as significantly associated with high or low VEGF expression were preserved following permutation correction. High VEGF expression was detected in 123 (58.9 %) of the 209 patients. Voxel-based statistical analysis demonstrated that high VEGF expression was more likely in tumors located in the left frontal lobe and the right caudate and low VEGF expression was more likely in tumors that occurred in the posterior region of the right lateral ventricle. Voxel-based neuroimaging analysis revealed the anatomic specificity of VEGF expression in glioblastoma, which may further our understanding of genetic heterogeneity during tumor origination. This finding provides primary theoretical support for potential future application of customized antiangiogenic therapy. (orig.)

Anatomical specificity of vascular endothelial growth factor expression in glioblastomas: a voxel-based mapping analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fan, Xing; Wang, Yinyan; Wang, Kai; Ma, Jun; Li, Shaowu; Liu, Shuai; Liu, Yong; Jiang, Tao

2016-01-01

The expression of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is a common genetic alteration in malignant gliomas and contributes to the angiogenesis of tumors. This study aimed to investigate the anatomical specificity of VEGF expression levels in glioblastomas using voxel-based neuroimaging analysis. Clinical information, MR scans, and immunohistochemistry stains of 209 patients with glioblastomas were reviewed. All tumor lesions were segmented manually and subsequently registered to standard brain space. Voxel-based regression analysis was performed to correlate the brain regions of tumor involvement with the level of VEGF expression. Brain regions identified as significantly associated with high or low VEGF expression were preserved following permutation correction. High VEGF expression was detected in 123 (58.9 %) of the 209 patients. Voxel-based statistical analysis demonstrated that high VEGF expression was more likely in tumors located in the left frontal lobe and the right caudate and low VEGF expression was more likely in tumors that occurred in the posterior region of the right lateral ventricle. Voxel-based neuroimaging analysis revealed the anatomic specificity of VEGF expression in glioblastoma, which may further our understanding of genetic heterogeneity during tumor origination. This finding provides primary theoretical support for potential future application of customized antiangiogenic therapy. (orig.)

The Importance of Future Kindergarten Teachers' Beliefs about the Usefulness of Games Based Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Manessis, Dionysios

2014-01-01

This paper examines the importance of future kindergarten teachers' beliefs about the usefulness of Games Based Learning in Early Childhood Education. Data were collected by using questionnaires which were given to the participants at the end of an introductory level, Information and Communication Technologies course. The sample of this study was…

Technology-Based Healthcare for Nursing Education Within The Netherlands: Past, Present and Future.

Science.gov (United States)

Koster, Ybranda; van Houwelingen, Cornelis T M

2017-01-01

At the present time, nearly all Dutch nursing schools are searching for suitable ways to implement technology-based healthcare in their curriculum. Some Universities chose elective education, others a mandatory solution. Several studies were executed to determine competencies needed by nurses in order to work with technology-based healthcare. In 2016 a nationwide new curriculum for nurses has been published. Providing technology-based healthcare is included under the core competencies of this new curriculum. All baccalaureate nursing educational institutes must implement this new curriculum at the start of 2016 which will have a huge impact on the implementation of technology-based healthcare in the education programs. In the future, technology centers from Universities will collaborate and specialize, partner with technology companies and crossovers between information and communication technology and healthcare education will be expanded.

Effects of NYMEX trading on IPE Brent Crude futures markets: a duration analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, S.X.; Tamvakis, M.N.

2004-01-01

Recent developments in the energy markets, and the surge and dip in crude oil prices over the last few years, have renewed the interest in the workings of the two main price setting markets: London's International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) and New York's Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The interaction of these two markets, when both of them are open (synchronous trading) and when only London is open (asynchronous trading), is important, in view of the fact that most participants take positions in both markets. This paper looks at how London is affected by New York by analysing the transaction duration of the IPE Brent futures contract, both when the NYMEX WTI futures contract is being traded and when NYMEX is closed. Using tick-by-tick data obtained from IPE, transaction durations are found to form two distinctive and inverted U-shaped patterns. Autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model, first introduced by Engle and Russell, is applied to the data. Parameters of IPE morning and afternoon are significantly different from each other, underlining the dominant effects of NYMEX on IPE trading. The results from the current analysis reinforce previous results by the authors, which indicate that NYMEX is a leading price setter in crude oil futures prices and has a dominant effect on the IPE-traded contracts

Support vector machine based estimation of remaining useful life: current research status and future trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Hong Zhong; Wang, Hai Kun; Li, Yan Feng; Zhang, Longlong; Liu, Zhiliang

2015-01-01

Estimation of remaining useful life (RUL) is helpful to manage life cycles of machines and to reduce maintenance cost. Support vector machine (SVM) is a promising algorithm for estimation of RUL because it can easily process small training sets and multi-dimensional data. Many SVM based methods have been proposed to predict RUL of some key components. We did a literature review related to SVM based RUL estimation within a decade. The references reviewed are classified into two categories: improved SVM algorithms and their applications to RUL estimation. The latter category can be further divided into two types: one, to predict the condition state in the future and then build a relationship between state and RUL; two, to establish a direct relationship between current state and RUL. However, SVM is seldom used to track the degradation process and build an accurate relationship between the current health condition state and RUL. Based on the above review and summary, this paper points out that the ability to continually improve SVM, and obtain a novel idea for RUL prediction using SVM will be future works.

Hidden flows and waste processing--an analysis of illustrative futures.

Science.gov (United States)

Schiller, F; Raffield, T; Angus, A; Herben, M; Young, P J; Longhurst, P J; Pollard, S J T

2010-12-14

An existing materials flow model is adapted (using Excel and AMBER model platforms) to account for waste and hidden material flows within a domestic environment. Supported by national waste data, the implications of legislative change, domestic resource depletion and waste technology advances are explored. The revised methodology offers additional functionality for economic parameters that influence waste generation and disposal. We explore this accounting system under hypothetical future waste and resource management scenarios, illustrating the utility of the model. A sensitivity analysis confirms that imports, domestic extraction and their associated hidden flows impact mostly on waste generation. The model offers enhanced utility for policy and decision makers with regard to economic mass balance and strategic waste flows, and may promote further discussion about waste technology choice in the context of reducing carbon budgets.

Preliminary Analysis of ISS Maintenance History and Implications for Supportability of Future Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Kevin J.; Robbins, William W.

2004-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) enables the study of supportability issues associated with long-duration human spaceflight. The ISS is a large, complex spacecraft that must be maintained by its crew. In contrast to the Space Shuttle Orbiter vehicle, but similar to spacecraft that will be component elements of future missions beyond low-Earth orbit, ISS does not return to the ground for servicing and provisioning of spares is severely constrained by transportation limits. Although significant technical support is provided by ground personnel, all hands-on maintenance tasks are performed by the crew. It is expected that future missions to distant destinations will be further limited by lack of resupply opportunities and will, eventually, become largely independent of ground support. ISS provides an opportunity to begin learning lessons that will enable future missions to be successful. Data accumulated over the first several years of ISS operations have been analyzed to gain a better understanding of maintenance-related workload. This analysis addresses both preventive and corrective maintenance and includes all U.S segment core systems. Systems and tasks that are major contributors to workload are identified. As further experience accrues, lessons will be learned that will influence future system designs so that they require less maintenance and, when maintenance is required, it can be performed more efficiently. By heeding the lessons of ISS it will be possible to identify system designs that should be more robust and point towards advances in both technology and design that will offer the greatest return on investment.

Mountain Home Air Force Base, Idaho Geothermal Resource Assessment and Future Recommendations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joseph C. Armstrong; Robert P. Breckenridge; Dennis L. Nielson; John W. Shervais; Thomas R. Wood

2013-03-01

The U.S. Air Force is facing a number of challenges as it moves into the future, one of the biggest being how to provide safe and secure energy to support base operations. A team of scientists and engineers met at Mountain Home Air Force Base in early 2011 near Boise, Idaho, to discuss the possibility of exploring for geothermal resources under the base. The team identified that there was a reasonable potential for geothermal resources based on data from an existing well. In addition, a regional gravity map helped identify several possible locations for drilling a new well. The team identified several possible sources of funding for this well—the most logical being to use U.S. Department of Energy funds to drill the upper half of the well and U.S. Air Force funds to drill the bottom half of the well. The well was designed as a slimhole well in accordance with State of Idaho Department of Water Resources rules and regulations. Drilling operations commenced at the Mountain Home site in July of 2011 and were completed in January of 2012. Temperatures increased gradually, especially below a depth of 2000 ft. Temperatures increased more rapidly below a depth of 5500 ft. The bottom of the well is at 5976 ft, where a temperature of about 140°C was recorded. The well flowed artesian from a depth below 5600 ft, until it was plugged off with drilling mud. Core samples were collected from the well and are being analyzed to help understand permeability at depth. Additional tests using a televiewer system will be run to evaluate orientation and directions at fractures, especially in the production zone. A final report on the well exploitation will be forthcoming later this year. The Air Force will use it to evaluate the geothermal resource potential for future private development options at Mountain Home Air Force Base. In conclusion, Recommendation for follow-up efforts include the following:

A Study on stabilization of energy supply and demand using foreign futures market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yun, Won Chul; Lee, Sung Keun [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

1999-02-01

This study seeks to minimize financial cost related to the price stabilization and the supply and demand stabilization. In order to accomplish this, it derives a theoretical model of supply hedging to minimize fluctuation risk of price and financial cost intended for crude oil and LNG. Through the positive analysis based on this, it analyzes quantitatively the economic effect of utilizing foreign futures market. It shows the decline of average and divergence of supply cost. Despite the economic effect of utilizing a futures market, the degree of utilizing energy futures market of related firms in Korea appeared to be insufficient. To raise the utilization of trading in futures, the followings were suggested. Firstly, cost reduction and sharing relating information can be designed through the joint participation among allied enterprises. Secondly, energy futures transaction center in Korea can be established or trading linkage based on the existing international trading system can be built. Thirdly, it is possible to subsidize related cost by making a loan from trading in futures. Lastly, the participating directly in a futures market at government level can be considered. (author). 61 refs., 57 figs., 22 tabs.

Demographic Analysis and Planning for the Future. No. 13.

Science.gov (United States)

Efird, Cathy M.

The basic sources and types of demographic data available for future planning for the developmentally disabled are reviewed and a frame work for data organization is suggested. It is explained that future forecasts may be undertaken by the following principles: trend forecasting or extrapolation; scenario construction; models, games, and…

Affordances of Augmented Reality in Science Learning: Suggestions for Future Research

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Kun-Hung; Tsai, Chin-Chung

2013-08-01

Augmented reality (AR) is currently considered as having potential for pedagogical applications. However, in science education, research regarding AR-aided learning is in its infancy. To understand how AR could help science learning, this review paper firstly has identified two major approaches of utilizing AR technology in science education, which are named as image- based AR and location- based AR. These approaches may result in different affordances for science learning. It is then found that students' spatial ability, practical skills, and conceptual understanding are often afforded by image-based AR and location-based AR usually supports inquiry-based scientific activities. After examining what has been done in science learning with AR supports, several suggestions for future research are proposed. For example, more research is required to explore learning experience (e.g., motivation or cognitive load) and learner characteristics (e.g., spatial ability or perceived presence) involved in AR. Mixed methods of investigating learning process (e.g., a content analysis and a sequential analysis) and in-depth examination of user experience beyond usability (e.g., affective variables of esthetic pleasure or emotional fulfillment) should be considered. Combining image-based and location-based AR technology may bring new possibility for supporting science learning. Theories including mental models, spatial cognition, situated cognition, and social constructivist learning are suggested for the profitable uses of future AR research in science education.

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 1: Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mai, T.; Wiser, R.; Sandor, D.; Brinkman, G.; Heath, G.; Denholm, P.; Hostick, D.J.; Darghouth, N.; Schlosser, A.; Strzepek, K.

2012-06-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

Lipid Based Nanosystems for Curcumin: Past, Present and Future.

Science.gov (United States)

Nayak, Aditya P; Mills, Tom; Norton, Ian

2016-01-01

Curcumin is one of the principle bioactive compounds used in the ayurvedic medicine system that has the history of over 5000 years for human use. Curcumin an "Indian Gold" is used to treat simple ailments like the common cold to severe life threatening diseases like cancer, and HIV. Though its contribution is immense for the health protection and disease prevention, its clinical use is limited due to its susceptible nature to alkaline pH, high temperature, presence of oxygen and light. Hence it becomes extremely difficult to maintain its bioactivity during processing, storage and consumption. Recent advancements in the application of nanotechnology to curcumin offer an opportunity to enhance its stability, bioactivity and to overcome its pharmacokinetic mismatch. This in turn helps to bridge the gaps that exist between its bench top research data to its clinical findings. Among the various types of nano/micro delivery systems, lipid based delivery systems are well studied and are the best suited delivery systems to enhance the stability and pharmacokinetic profile of curcumin both for pharma and the food application. In the current review, effort will be made to recapitulate the work done in the past to use lipid based delivery systems (liposomes, solid lipid nanoparticles, and emulsions) to enhance the application of curcumin for health promotion and disease prevention. Further, future prospects for the utilization of these lipid-based delivery systems will be discussed in detail.

α-Cut method based importance measure for criticality analysis in fuzzy probability – Based fault tree analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Purba, Julwan Hendry; Sony Tjahyani, D.T.; Widodo, Surip; Tjahjono, Hendro

2017-01-01

Highlights: •FPFTA deals with epistemic uncertainty using fuzzy probability. •Criticality analysis is important for reliability improvement. •An α-cut method based importance measure is proposed for criticality analysis in FPFTA. •The α-cut method based importance measure utilises α-cut multiplication, α-cut subtraction, and area defuzzification technique. •Benchmarking confirm that the proposed method is feasible for criticality analysis in FPFTA. -- Abstract: Fuzzy probability – based fault tree analysis (FPFTA) has been recently developed and proposed to deal with the limitations of conventional fault tree analysis. In FPFTA, reliabilities of basic events, intermediate events and top event are characterized by fuzzy probabilities. Furthermore, the quantification of the FPFTA is based on fuzzy multiplication rule and fuzzy complementation rule to propagate uncertainties from basic event to the top event. Since the objective of the fault tree analysis is to improve the reliability of the system being evaluated, it is necessary to find the weakest path in the system. For this purpose, criticality analysis can be implemented. Various importance measures, which are based on conventional probabilities, have been developed and proposed for criticality analysis in fault tree analysis. However, not one of those importance measures can be applied for criticality analysis in FPFTA, which is based on fuzzy probability. To be fully applied in nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment, FPFTA needs to have its corresponding importance measure. The objective of this study is to develop an α-cut method based importance measure to evaluate and rank the importance of basic events for criticality analysis in FPFTA. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed measure, a case study is performed and its results are then benchmarked to the results generated by the four well known importance measures in conventional fault tree analysis. The results

Analysis of present day and future OH and methane lifetime in the ACCMIP simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Voulgarakis

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Results from simulations performed for the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP are analysed to examine how OH and methane lifetime may change from present day to the future, under different climate and emissions scenarios. Present day (2000 mean tropospheric chemical lifetime derived from the ACCMIP multi-model mean is 9.8 ± 1.6 yr (9.3 ± 0.9 yr when only including selected models, lower than a recent observationally-based estimate, but with a similar range to previous multi-model estimates. Future model projections are based on the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, and the results also exhibit a large range. Decreases in global methane lifetime of 4.5 ± 9.1% are simulated for the scenario with lowest radiative forcing by 2100 (RCP 2.6, while increases of 8.5 ± 10.4% are simulated for the scenario with highest radiative forcing (RCP 8.5. In this scenario, the key driver of the evolution of OH and methane lifetime is methane itself, since its concentration more than doubles by 2100 and it consumes much of the OH that exists in the troposphere. Stratospheric ozone recovery, which drives tropospheric OH decreases through photolysis modifications, also plays a partial role. In the other scenarios, where methane changes are less drastic, the interplay between various competing drivers leads to smaller and more diverse OH and methane lifetime responses, which are difficult to attribute. For all scenarios, regional OH changes are even more variable, with the most robust feature being the large decreases over the remote oceans in RCP8.5. Through a regression analysis, we suggest that differences in emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds and in the simulation of photolysis rates may be the main factors causing the differences in simulated present day OH and methane lifetime. Diversity in predicted changes between present day and future OH was found to be associated more strongly with

Rosetta: Ensuring the Preservation and Usability of ASCII-based Data into the Future

Science.gov (United States)

Ramamurthy, M. K.; Arms, S. C.

2015-12-01

Field data obtained from dataloggers often take the form of comma separated value (CSV) ASCII text files. While ASCII based data formats have positive aspects, such as the ease of accessing the data from disk and the wide variety of tools available for data analysis, there are some drawbacks, especially when viewing the situation through the lens of data interoperability and stewardship. The Unidata data translation tool, Rosetta, is a web-based service that provides an easy, wizard-based interface for data collectors to transform their datalogger generated ASCII output into Climate and Forecast (CF) compliant netCDF files following the CF-1.6 discrete sampling geometries. These files are complete with metadata describing what data are contained in the file, the instruments used to collect the data, and other critical information that otherwise may be lost in one of many README files. The choice of the machine readable netCDF data format and data model, coupled with the CF conventions, ensures long-term preservation and interoperability, and that future users will have enough information to responsibly use the data. However, with the understanding that the observational community appreciates the ease of use of ASCII files, methods for transforming the netCDF back into a CSV or spreadsheet format are also built-in. One benefit of translating ASCII data into a machine readable format that follows open community-driven standards is that they are instantly able to take advantage of data services provided by the many open-source data server tools, such as the THREDDS Data Server (TDS). While Rosetta is currently a stand-alone service, this talk will also highlight efforts to couple Rosetta with the TDS, thus allowing self-publishing of thoroughly documented datasets by the data producers themselves.

Cardiovascular imaging environment: will the future be cloud-based?

Science.gov (United States)

Kawel-Boehm, Nadine; Bluemke, David A

2017-07-01

In cardiovascular CT and MR imaging large datasets have to be stored, post-processed, analyzed and distributed. Beside basic assessment of volume and function in cardiac magnetic resonance imaging e.g., more sophisticated quantitative analysis is requested requiring specific software. Several institutions cannot afford various types of software and provide expertise to perform sophisticated analysis. Areas covered: Various cloud services exist related to data storage and analysis specifically for cardiovascular CT and MR imaging. Instead of on-site data storage, cloud providers offer flexible storage services on a pay-per-use basis. To avoid purchase and maintenance of specialized software for cardiovascular image analysis, e.g. to assess myocardial iron overload, MR 4D flow and fractional flow reserve, evaluation can be performed with cloud based software by the consumer or complete analysis is performed by the cloud provider. However, challenges to widespread implementation of cloud services include regulatory issues regarding patient privacy and data security. Expert commentary: If patient privacy and data security is guaranteed cloud imaging is a valuable option to cope with storage of large image datasets and offer sophisticated cardiovascular image analysis for institutions of all sizes.

A look into the future. Scenarios for distributed generation in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scheepers, M.J.J.; Timpe, C.

2003-12-01

Based on the analysis of the long-term historical and future technical, socio-economic and institutional dynamics of European electricity supply systems and markets, the SUSTELNET project developed scenarios for future electricity supply systems in EU Member States and Newly Associated States (NAS). These scenarios provide a background for the development of regulatory road maps, which can be used as a tool to map out a regulatory strategy, facilitating the transition of current regulation into a regulatory framework that is required for future sustainable electricity supply systems. This report describes four different scenarios for the future of electricity systems and distributed generation (DG) in Europe in a qualitative manner. Moreover, the methodology used to develop these scenarios is described as well as the impact that disruptive events may have on these scenarios

Transition analysis of promising U.S. future fuel cycles using ORION - 5114

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sunny, E.; Worrall, A.; Peterson, J.; Powers, J.; Gehin, J.

2015-01-01

The US Department of Energy Office of Fuel Cycle Technologies performed an evaluation and screening (E/S) study of nuclear fuel cycle options to help prioritize future research and development decisions. Previous work for this E/S study focused on establishing equilibrium conditions for analysis examples of 40 nuclear fuel cycle evaluation groups and evaluating their performance according to a set of 22 standardized metrics. Following the E/S study, additional studies are being conducted to assess transition period from the current US fuel cycle to future fuel cycle options identified by the E/S study as being most promising. These studies help inform decisions on how to effectively achieve full transition, estimate the length of time needed to undergo transition from the current fuel cycle, and evaluate performance of nuclear systems and facilities in place during the transition. These studies also help identify any barriers to achieve transition. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Fuel Cycle Options Campaign team used ORION to analyze the transition pathway from the existing US nuclear fuel cycle - the once-through use of low-enriched-uranium (LEU) fuel in thermal-spectrum light water reactors (LWRs) - to a new fuel cycle with continuous recycling of plutonium and uranium in sodium fast reactors (SFRs). This paper discusses the analysis of the transition from an LWR to an SFR fleet using ORION, highlights the role of lifetime extensions of existing LWRs to aid transition, and discusses how a slight delay in SFR deployment can actually reduce the time to achieve an equilibrium fuel cycle. (authors)

Potential impact of climate change to the future streamflow of Yellow River Basin based on CMIP5 data

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Xiaoli; Zheng, Weifei; Ren, Liliang; Zhang, Mengru; Wang, Yuqian; Liu, Yi; Yuan, Fei; Jiang, Shanhu

2018-02-01

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is the largest river basin in northern China, which has suffering water scarcity and drought hazard for many years. Therefore, assessments the potential impacts of climate change on the future streamflow in this basin is very important for local policy and planning on food security. In this study, based on the observations of 101 meteorological stations in YRB, equidistant CDF matching (EDCDFm) statistical downscaling approach was applied to eight climate models under two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model with 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution was developed based on downscaled fields for simulating streamflow in the future period over YRB. The results show that with the global warming trend, the annual streamflow will reduced about 10 % during the period of 2021-2050, compared to the base period of 1961-1990 in YRB. There should be suitable water resources planning to meet the demands of growing populations and future climate changing in this region.

Energy Futures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Davies, Sarah Rachael; Selin, Cynthia

2012-01-01

foresight and public and stakeholder engagement are used to reflect on?and direct?the impacts of new technology. In this essay we draw on our experience of anticipatory governance, in the shape of the ?NanoFutures? project on energy futures, to present a reflexive analysis of engagement and deliberation. We...... draw out five tensions of the practice of deliberation on energy technologies. Through tracing the lineages of these dilemmas, we discuss some of the implications of these tensions for the practice of civic engagement and deliberation in a set of questions for this community of practitioner-scholars....

Group-based social skills interventions for adolescents with higher-functioning autism spectrum disorder: a review and looking to the future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

McMahon CM

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Camilla M McMahon,1 Matthew D Lerner,2,3 Noah Britton41Department of Curriculum and Instruction, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, USA; 2Department of Psychology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA; 3Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Neuroscience, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA; 4Behavorial Sciences Department, Bunker Hill Community College, Charleston, MA, USAAbstract: In this paper, we synthesize the current literature on group-based social skills interventions (GSSIs for adolescents (ages 10–20 years with higher-functioning autism spectrum disorder and identify key concepts that should be addressed in future research on GSSIs. We consider the research participants, the intervention, the assessment of the intervention, and the research methodology and results to be integral and interconnected components of the GSSI literature, and we review each of these components respectively. Participant characteristics (eg, age, IQ, sex and intervention characteristics (eg, targeted social skills, teaching strategies, duration and intensity vary considerably across GSSIs; future research should evaluate whether participant and intervention characteristics mediate/moderate intervention efficacy. Multiple assessments (eg, parent-report, child-report, social cognitive assessments are used to evaluate the efficacy of GSSIs; future research should be aware of the limitations of current measurement approaches and employ more accurate, sensitive, and comprehensive measurement approaches. Results of GSSIs are largely inconclusive, with few consistent findings across studies (eg, high parent and child satisfaction with the intervention; future research should employ more rigorous methodological standards for evaluating efficacy. A better understanding of these components in the current GSSI literature and a more sophisticated and rigorous analysis of these components in future research will lend clarity to key questions

Space Shuttle Launch Probability Analysis: Understanding History so We Can Predict the Future

Science.gov (United States)

Cates, Grant R.

2014-01-01

The Space Shuttle was launched 135 times and nearly half of those launches required 2 or more launch attempts. The Space Shuttle launch countdown historical data of 250 launch attempts provides a wealth of data that is important to analyze for strictly historical purposes as well as for use in predicting future launch vehicle launch countdown performance. This paper provides a statistical analysis of all Space Shuttle launch attempts including the empirical probability of launch on any given attempt and the cumulative probability of launch relative to the planned launch date at the start of the initial launch countdown. This information can be used to facilitate launch probability predictions of future launch vehicles such as NASA's Space Shuttle derived SLS. Understanding the cumulative probability of launch is particularly important for missions to Mars since the launch opportunities are relatively short in duration and one must wait for 2 years before a subsequent attempt can begin.

The analysis of the value orientation of the future teachers of physical education

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deminskaya L.A.

2012-08-01

Full Text Available The analysis of the value orientation of the future teachers of physical education was carried out. The degree of importance for students of such values as: friendship, love, family - relationships with parents, study, hobbies, health was determined In the survey took part 512 students of 1-st and 2-nd courses. Students were proposed to rate each concept on a 5-point scale. It was determined that 40,3 % of students who took part in the survey as high as possible (for 5 points estimated for themselves the degree of value relationships with parents; approximately 40 % of students as high as possible (for 5 points estimated for themselves the degree of value health. The smallest number of students appreciate such values as friendship (9,85% and learning (5,36%. Such estimation of values indicates the necessity for adjustments in the process of professionally - pedagogical training of future teachers of physical education.

Another 25 Years of AIED? Challenges and Opportunities for Intelligent Educational Technologies of the Future

Science.gov (United States)

Pinkwart, Niels

2016-01-01

This paper attempts an analysis of some current trends and future developments in computer science, education, and educational technology. Based on these trends, two possible future predictions of AIED are presented in the form of a utopian vision and a dystopian vision. A comparison of these two visions leads to seven challenges that AIED might…

Incorporating stakeholder perspectives into model-based scenarios : Exploring the futures of the Dutch gas sector

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eker, S.; van Daalen, C.; Thissen, W.A.H.

2017-01-01

Several model-based, analytical approaches have been developed recently to deal with the deep uncertainty present in situations for which futures studies are conducted. These approaches focus on covering a wide variety of scenarios and searching for robust strategies. However, they generally do

Relationship between Future Time Orientation and Item Nonresponse on Subjective Probability Questions: A Cross-Cultural Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Sunghee; Liu, Mingnan; Hu, Mengyao

2017-06-01

Time orientation is an unconscious yet fundamental cognitive process that provides a framework for organizing personal experiences in temporal categories of past, present and future, reflecting the relative emphasis given to these categories. Culture lies central to individuals' time orientation, leading to cultural variations in time orientation. For example, people from future-oriented cultures tend to emphasize the future and store information relevant for the future more than those from present- or past-oriented cultures. For survey questions that ask respondents to report expected probabilities of future events, this may translate into culture-specific question difficulties, manifested through systematically varying "I don't know" item nonresponse rates. This study drew on the time orientation theory and examined culture-specific nonresponse patterns on subjective probability questions using methodologically comparable population-based surveys from multiple countries. The results supported our hypothesis. Item nonresponse rates on these questions varied significantly in the way that future-orientation at the group as well as individual level was associated with lower nonresponse rates. This pattern did not apply to non-probability questions. Our study also suggested potential nonresponse bias. Examining culture-specific constructs, such as time orientation, as a framework for measurement mechanisms may contribute to improving cross-cultural research.

Well-faring towards Uncertain Futures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frederiksen, Martin Demant; Pedersen, Susanne Højlund; Meinert, Lotte

2011-01-01

The article explores how societal contexts create different possibilities for faring well towards the future for young marginalized people. Based on a comparative project including ethnographies from Brazil, Uganda, Georgia and Denmark the authors discuss well-faring as a time-oriented process...... based on individual as well as societal conditions. The article argues that in order to understand well-faring it is important to analyse how visions and strategies for the future are shaped in relation to local circumstances. Whether it is possible to envision the future as hopeless or hopeful...

The future of nuclear power in France: an analysis of the costs of phasing-out

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Malischek, Raimund; Trüby, Johannes

2016-01-01

Nuclear power is an important pillar in electricity generation in France. However, the French nuclear power plant fleet is ageing, and the possibility of reducing the technology's share in power generation or even a complete phase-out has been increasingly discussed. This paper focuses on three inter-related questions: First, what are the costs of phasing-out nuclear power in France? Second, who has to bear these costs, i.e., how much of the costs will be passed on to the rest of the European power system? And third, what effect does the uncertainty regarding future nuclear policy in France have on system costs? Applying a stochastic optimization model for the European electricity system, the analysis showed that additional system costs in France of a nuclear phase-out amount up to 76 billion €_2_0_1_0. Additional costs are mostly borne by the French power system. Surprisingly, the analysis found that the costs of uncertainty are rather limited. Based on the results, it can be concluded that a commitment regarding nuclear policy reform is only mildly beneficial in terms of system cost savings. - Highlights: • Analysis of different nuclear policy and phase-out scenarios in France. • Nuclear policy uncertainty in France is treated using stochastic programming. • Costs of a nuclear phase-out in France are significant, amounting up to 76 bill €. • Costs of a phase-out are hardly passed on to the rest of the European power system. • Costs of uncertainty are low, implying little benefit of nuclear policy commitment.

Partial Least Squares Based Gene Expression Analysis in EBV- Positive and EBV-Negative Posttransplant Lymphoproliferative Disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Sa; Zhang, Xin; Li, Zhi-Ming; Shi, Yan-Xia; Huang, Jia-Jia; Xia, Yi; Yang, Hang; Jiang, Wen-Qi

2013-01-01

Post-transplant lymphoproliferative disorder (PTLD) is a common complication of therapeutic immunosuppression after organ transplantation. Gene expression profile facilitates the identification of biological difference between Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) positive and negative PTLDs. Previous studies mainly implemented variance/regression analysis without considering unaccounted array specific factors. The aim of this study is to investigate the gene expression difference between EBV positive and negative PTLDs through partial least squares (PLS) based analysis. With a microarray data set from the Gene Expression Omnibus database, we performed PLS based analysis. We acquired 1188 differentially expressed genes. Pathway and Gene Ontology enrichment analysis identified significantly over-representation of dysregulated genes in immune response and cancer related biological processes. Network analysis identified three hub genes with degrees higher than 15, including CREBBP, ATXN1, and PML. Proteins encoded by CREBBP and PML have been reported to be interact with EBV before. Our findings shed light on expression distinction of EBV positive and negative PTLDs with the hope to offer theoretical support for future therapeutic study.

Recognizing mild cognitive impairment based on network connectivity analysis of resting EEG with zero reference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu, Peng; Xiong, Xiu Chun; Tian, Yin; Zhang, Rui; Li, Pei Yang; Yao, De Zhong; Xue, Qing; Wang, Yu Ping; Peng, Yueheng

2014-01-01

The diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is very helpful for early therapeutic interventions of Alzheimer's disease (AD). MCI has been proven to be correlated with disorders in multiple brain areas. In this paper, we used information from resting brain networks at different EEG frequency bands to reliably recognize MCI. Because EEG network analysis is influenced by the reference that is used, we also evaluate the effect of the reference choices on the resting scalp EEG network-based MCI differentiation. The conducted study reveals two aspects: (1) the network-based MCI differentiation is superior to the previously reported classification that uses coherence in the EEG; and (2) the used EEG reference influences the differentiation performance, and the zero approximation technique (reference electrode standardization technique, REST) can construct a more accurate scalp EEG network, which results in a higher differentiation accuracy for MCI. This study indicates that the resting scalp EEG-based network analysis could be valuable for MCI recognition in the future. (paper)

Comparative Analysis of Pedagogical Technologies in the Context of Future Agrarians' Multicultural Education in the USA

Science.gov (United States)

Kravets, Ruslan

2015-01-01

In the article the comparative analysis of pedagogical technologies in the USA has been carried out in the context of future agrarians' multicultural education. The essence of traditional and innovative pedagogical technologies and the peculiarities of their realization at higher educational establishments have been viewed. The expediency of…

To Model for the Georeferenciation of the Colonization of the Forest to Future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Angel Sanint, Enrique; Castano Posada, Carlos Mario

2003-01-01

A mathematical model for the future geographical projection of the forest colonization process is proposed. The model allows the estimation of future forest areas and their geographical location, in such a way that it is possible to create a probable image of the forest coverage at a given future date. The model is based on the preservation of historical statistical parameters through the use of multi-temporal analysis of satellite images. The developed projection method is applied to San Vicente del Chucuri Santander, Colombia) using four Land sat satellite images from 1977, 1985, 1991 and 1998. The statistical behavior of the colonization process is established, to produce a future forest image for the year 2005 in the study area

Accelerator-based neutron source and its future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kiyanagi, Yoshiaki

2008-01-01

Neutrons are useful tool for the material science and also for the industrial applications. Now, high intensity neutron sources based on MW class big accelerators are under commissioning in Japan, Japan Spallation Neutron Source (JSNS) at J-PARC and in the US, SNS. Such high power neutron sources required the moderators that can be used under high radiation field and also give high neutronic performance. We have been performing experimental and Monte Carlo simulation studies to develop the cold neutron moderator systems for the high power sources since it is becoming important for materials and life science. Hydrogen is the unique candidate at the present stage due to its high resistibility to the radiation. It was indicated the para hydrogen moderator gave a good neutronic performance by experimental results. On the other hand, in the future, low power neutron sources are recognized to be useful to perform sprouting experiments and to promote the neutron science. The moderator systems need a concept different from the high power source. Therefore, we studied neutronic performances of the mesitylene and the methane moderators to get high intensity in a definite area on the moderator surface. Single groove moderators were studied and optimal geometry and the intensity gain were obtained. The mesitylene moderator gave a rather good performance compared to the methane moderator. (author)

Digital Story-Based Problem Solving Applications: Preservice Primary Teachers' Experiences and Future Integration Plans

Science.gov (United States)

Kilic, Çigdem; Sancar-Tokmak, Hatice

2017-01-01

This case study investigates how preservice primary school teachers describe their experiences with digital story-based problem solving applications and their plans for the future integration of this technology into their teaching. Totally 113 preservice primary school teachers participated in the study. Data collection tools included a…

Downtrend Algorithm and Hedging Strategy in Futures Market

OpenAIRE

S. Masteika; A.V. Rutkauskas; A. Tamosaitis

2012-01-01

The paper investigates downtrend algorithm and trading strategy based on chart pattern recognition and technical analysis in futures market. The proposed chart formation is a pattern with the lowest low in the middle and one higher low on each side. The contribution of this paper lies in the reinforcement of statements about the profitability of momentum trend trading strategies. Practical benefit of the research is a trading algorithm in falling markets and back-test ana...

Credibility of management earnings forecasts and future returns

OpenAIRE

Norio Kitagawa; Akinobu Shuto

2015-01-01

This study investigates the effect of managerial discretion over their initial earnings forecasts on future performance. First, by estimating the discretionary portion of initial management earnings forecasts (defined as discretionary forecasts) based on the findings of fundamental analysis research, we find that firms with higher discretionary forecasts are more likely to miss their earnings forecast at the end of the fiscal year and revise their forecasts downward to meet their earnings for...

Wavelets and their applications past and future

Science.gov (United States)

Coifman, Ronald R.

2009-04-01

As this is a conference on mathematical tools for defense, I would like to dedicate this talk to the memory of Louis Auslander, who through his insights and visionary leadership, brought powerful new mathematics into DARPA, he has provided the main impetus to the development and insertion of wavelet based processing in defense. My goal here is to describe the evolution of a stream of ideas in Harmonic Analysis, ideas which in the past have been mostly applied for the analysis and extraction of information from physical data, and which now are increasingly applied to organize and extract information and knowledge from any set of digital documents, from text to music to questionnaires. This form of signal processing on digital data, is part of the future of wavelet analysis.

School-Based Mental Health Programs in the United States: Present Status and a Blueprint for the Future.

Science.gov (United States)

Pfeiffer, Steven I.; Reddy, Linda A.

1998-01-01

Provides overview of sociocultural and political factors in the United States that have influenced recent interest in school-based health and mental health programs. Describes four well-known programs and presents a new framework, the Tripartite Model of School-Based Mental Health Interventions, to stimulate thinking on future programs. Addresses…

The future distribution of the savannah biome: model-based and biogeographic contingency.

Science.gov (United States)

Moncrieff, Glenn R; Scheiter, Simon; Langan, Liam; Trabucco, Antonio; Higgins, Steven I

2016-09-19

The extent of the savannah biome is expected to be profoundly altered by climatic change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Contrasting projections are given when using different modelling approaches to estimate future distributions. Furthermore, biogeographic variation within savannahs in plant function and structure is expected to lead to divergent responses to global change. Hence the use of a single model with a single savannah tree type will likely lead to biased projections. Here we compare and contrast projections of South American, African and Australian savannah distributions from the physiologically based Thornley transport resistance statistical distribution model (TTR-SDM)-and three versions of a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) designed and parametrized separately for specific continents. We show that attempting to extrapolate any continent-specific model globally biases projections. By 2070, all DVMs generally project a decrease in the extent of savannahs at their boundary with forests, whereas the TTR-SDM projects a decrease in savannahs at their boundary with aridlands and grasslands. This difference is driven by forest and woodland expansion in response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations in DVMs, unaccounted for by the TTR-SDM. We suggest that the most suitable models of the savannah biome for future development are individual-based dynamic vegetation models designed for specific biogeographic regions.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation'. © 2016 The Author(s).

X-ray microanalysis with transition edge sensors. The future of material analysis with scanning electron microscopes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hollerith, C.

2006-07-05

In current experiments and technical applications the demand for new and advanced concepts for the detection of radiation and particle is increasing. Low temperature detectors such as Transition Edge Sensors (TES) have been developed as ultrahigh-resolution radiation and particle detectors offering advantages in manifold applications. They were designed primarily for astrophysical experiments such as the dark matter search. In material analysis they have been introduced to revolutionize mass spectroscopy of biological molecules and Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (EDS). EDS is the determination of the elemental constitution of samples in scanning electron microscopes (SEMs) with characteristic X-ray radiation excited by the electron beam. The use of TES detectors improves the EDS analysis of small volumes such as particles or thin layers. This is especially important for the semiconductor industry because of the continual shrinking of device size. Current structure sizes of 65 nm are already demanding new approaches in analytic methodology. In this thesis the introduction and improvement of a fully automated TES detector system in the industrial environment of a semiconductor failure analysis lab is described. This system, marketed under the trade name of 'Polaris' by the manufacturer, is based on a mechanical pulse tube cooler in combination with an adiabatic demagnetization refrigerator (ADR) for cooling the TES detector to its operating temperature. Several large improvements had to be made to the system during the total system integration. The energy resolution could be improved significantly thus enabling a better peak separation and the measurement of chemical shifts. Due to the small area of TES detectors compared with conventional EDS detectors the efficiency of the system proved to be too low for everyday use. A polycapillary X-ray lens was added to the system in order to solve this problem. The application of the lens, however, brought its

Erha Uncertainty Analysis: Planning for the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brami, T.R.; Hopkins, D.F.; Loguer, W.L.; Cornagia, D.M.; Braisted, A.W.C.

2002-01-01

The Erha field (OPL 209) was discovered in 1999 approximately 100 km off the coast of Nigeria in 1,100 m of water. The discovery well (Erha-1) encountered oil and gas in deep-water clastic reservoirs. The first appraisal well (Erha-2) drilled 1.6 km downdip to the northwest penetrated an oil-water contact and confirmed a potentially commercial discovery. However, the Erha-3 and Erha-3 ST-1 boreholes, drilled on the faulted east-side of the field in 2001, encountered shallower fluid contacts. As a result of these findings, a comprehensive field-wide uncertainty analysis was performed to better understand what we know versus what we think regarding resource size and economic viability The uncertainty analysis process applied at Erha is an integrated scenario-based probabilistic approach to model resource and reserves. Its goal is to provide quantitative results for a variety of scenarios, thus allowing identification of and focus on critical controls (the variables that are likely to impose the greatest influence).The initial focus at Erha was to incorporate the observed fluid contacts and to develop potential scenarios that included the range of possibilities in unpenetrated portions of the field. Four potential compartmentalization scenarios were hypothesized. The uncertainty model combines these scenarios with reservoir parameters and their plausible ranges. Input data comes from multiple sources including: wells, 3D seismic, reservoir flow simulation, geochemistry, fault-seal analysis, sequence stratigraphic analysis, and analogs. Once created, the model is sampled using Monte-Carlo techniques to create probability density functions for a variety of variables including oil in-place and recoverable reserves.Results of the uncertainty analysis support that despite a thinner oil column on the faulted east-side of the field, Erha is an economically attractive opportunity. Further, the results have been to develop data acquisition plans and mitigation strategies that

Flexible Pedagogies: Employer Engagement and Work-Based Learning. Flexible Pedagogies: Preparing for the Future Series

Science.gov (United States)

Kettle, Jane

2013-01-01

This publication focuses on national and international policy initiatives to develop a better understanding of work-based learners and the types of flexibility that may well enhance their study especially pedagogically. As part of our five-strand research project "Flexible Pedagogies: preparing for the future" it: (1) highlights the…

Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis of agricultural futures markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He Lingyun; Chen Shupeng

2011-01-01

Highlights: → We investigated cross-correlations between China's and US agricultural futures markets. → Power-law cross-correlations are found between the geographically far but correlated markets. → Multifractal features are significant in all the markets. → Cross-correlation exponent is less than averaged GHE when q 0. - Abstract: We investigated geographically far but temporally correlated China's and US agricultural futures markets. We found that there exists a power-law cross-correlation between them, and that multifractal features are significant in all the markets. It is very interesting that the geographically far markets show strong cross-correlations and share much of their multifractal structure. Furthermore, we found that for all the agricultural futures markets in our studies, the cross-correlation exponent is less than the averaged generalized Hurst exponents (GHE) when q 0.

New computing systems, future computing environment, and their implications on structural analysis and design

Science.gov (United States)

Noor, Ahmed K.; Housner, Jerrold M.

1993-01-01

Recent advances in computer technology that are likely to impact structural analysis and design of flight vehicles are reviewed. A brief summary is given of the advances in microelectronics, networking technologies, and in the user-interface hardware and software. The major features of new and projected computing systems, including high performance computers, parallel processing machines, and small systems, are described. Advances in programming environments, numerical algorithms, and computational strategies for new computing systems are reviewed. The impact of the advances in computer technology on structural analysis and the design of flight vehicles is described. A scenario for future computing paradigms is presented, and the near-term needs in the computational structures area are outlined.

Telescope-based cavity for negative ion beam neutralization in future fusion reactors.

Science.gov (United States)

Fiorucci, Donatella; Hreibi, Ali; Chaibi, Walid

2018-03-01

In future fusion reactors, heating system efficiency is of the utmost importance. Photo-neutralization substantially increases the neutral beam injector (NBI) efficiency with respect to the foreseen system in the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) based on a gaseous target. In this paper, we propose a telescope-based configuration to be used in the NBI photo-neutralizer cavity of the demonstration power plant (DEMO) project. This configuration greatly reduces the total length of the cavity, which likely solves overcrowding issues in a fusion reactor environment. Brought to a tabletop experiment, this cavity configuration is tested: a 4 mm beam width is obtained within a ≃1.5  m length cavity. The equivalent cavity g factor is measured to be 0.038(3), thus confirming the cavity stability.

Temporal expression-based analysis of metabolism.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sara B Collins

Full Text Available Metabolic flux is frequently rerouted through cellular metabolism in response to dynamic changes in the intra- and extra-cellular environment. Capturing the mechanisms underlying these metabolic transitions in quantitative and predictive models is a prominent challenge in systems biology. Progress in this regard has been made by integrating high-throughput gene expression data into genome-scale stoichiometric models of metabolism. Here, we extend previous approaches to perform a Temporal Expression-based Analysis of Metabolism (TEAM. We apply TEAM to understanding the complex metabolic dynamics of the respiratorily versatile bacterium Shewanella oneidensis grown under aerobic, lactate-limited conditions. TEAM predicts temporal metabolic flux distributions using time-series gene expression data. Increased predictive power is achieved by supplementing these data with a large reference compendium of gene expression, which allows us to take into account the unique character of the distribution of expression of each individual gene. We further propose a straightforward method for studying the sensitivity of TEAM to changes in its fundamental free threshold parameter θ, and reveal that discrete zones of distinct metabolic behavior arise as this parameter is changed. By comparing the qualitative characteristics of these zones to additional experimental data, we are able to constrain the range of θ to a small, well-defined interval. In parallel, the sensitivity analysis reveals the inherently difficult nature of dynamic metabolic flux modeling: small errors early in the simulation propagate to relatively large changes later in the simulation. We expect that handling such "history-dependent" sensitivities will be a major challenge in the future development of dynamic metabolic-modeling techniques.

A Potential Transmitter Architecture for Future Generation Green Wireless Base Station

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mike Faulkner

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Current radio frequency power amplifiers in 3G base stations have very high power consumption leading to a hefty cost and negative environmental impact. In this paper, we propose a potential architecture design for future wireless base station. Issues associated with components of the architecture are investigated. The all-digital transmitter architecture uses a combination of envelope elimination and restoration (EER and pulse width modulation (PWM/pulse position modulation (PPM modulation. The performance of this architecture is predicted from the measured output power and efficiency curves of a GaN amplifier. 57% efficiency is obtained for an OFDM signal limited to 8 dB peak to average power ratio. The PWM/PPM drive signal is generated using the improved Cartesian sigma delta techniques. It is shown that an RF oversampling by a factor of four meets the WLAN spectral mask, and WCDMA specification is met by an RF oversampling of sixteen.

A Potential Transmitter Architecture for Future Generation Green Wireless Base Station

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cijvat Ellie

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Current radio frequency power amplifiers in 3G base stations have very high power consumption leading to a hefty cost and negative environmental impact. In this paper, we propose a potential architecture design for future wireless base station. Issues associated with components of the architecture are investigated. The all-digital transmitter architecture uses a combination of envelope elimination and restoration (EER and pulse width modulation (PWM/pulse position modulation (PPM modulation. The performance of this architecture is predicted from the measured output power and efficiency curves of a GaN amplifier. 57% efficiency is obtained for an OFDM signal limited to 8 dB peak to average power ratio. The PWM/PPM drive signal is generated using the improved Cartesian sigma delta techniques. It is shown that an RF oversampling by a factor of four meets the WLAN spectral mask, and WCDMA specification is met by an RF oversampling of sixteen.

Frame-based safety analysis approach for decision-based errors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fan, Chin-Feng; Yihb, Swu

1997-01-01

A frame-based approach is proposed to analyze decision-based errors made by automatic controllers or human operators due to erroneous reference frames. An integrated framework, Two Frame Model (TFM), is first proposed to model the dynamic interaction between the physical process and the decision-making process. Two important issues, consistency and competing processes, are raised. Consistency between the physical and logic frames makes a TFM-based system work properly. Loss of consistency refers to the failure mode that the logic frame does not accurately reflect the state of the controlled processes. Once such failure occurs, hazards may arise. Among potential hazards, the competing effect between the controller and the controlled process is the most severe one, which may jeopardize a defense-in-depth design. When the logic and physical frames are inconsistent, conventional safety analysis techniques are inadequate. We propose Frame-based Fault Tree; Analysis (FFTA) and Frame-based Event Tree Analysis (FETA) under TFM to deduce the context for decision errors and to separately generate the evolution of the logical frame as opposed to that of the physical frame. This multi-dimensional analysis approach, different from the conventional correctness-centred approach, provides a panoramic view in scenario generation. Case studies using the proposed techniques are also given to demonstrate their usage and feasibility

Fueling the dragon: Alternative Chinese oil futures and their implications for the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Eberling, George G.

This study examines how Chinese oil energy will likely shape future Sino-American relations under conditions of dependency and non-dependency. The study will list and describe three possible Chinese oil energy futures or scenarios (Competitive Dependency, Competitive Surplus and Cooperative Surplus) using Scenario Analysis to subsequently estimate their associated likelihoods using the PRINCE forecasting system and discuss and evaluate their strategic implications for the United States. Further, this study will determine the most likely oil energy future or scenario. Finally, the study will list and describe the most likely United States political, economic and/or military policy responses for each future or scenario. The study contributes to the literature on Chinese and United States energy security, foreign policy, political economy and political risk analysis by showing how China will most likely address its growing oil energy dependence and by determining what will be the most likely U.S. foreign policy consequences based on the most current literature available on energy security and foreign policy.

Formation of Various Competencies in the Process of Training the Future Music Teachers at the Present Stage

Science.gov (United States)

Kovalev, Dmitry A.; Khussainova, Gulzada A.; Balagazova, Svetlana T.; Zhankul, Tamarasar

2016-01-01

The article is devoted to professional training of future music teachers. Based on the analysis of domestic and foreign studies, the authors proved the importance of studying this problem and focusing on different pedagogical aspects. The study of this topic in general shows that the process of training the future music teachers has its own…

A framework for the exergy analysis of future transport pathways: Application for the United Kingdom transport system 2010–2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Byers, Edward A.; Gasparatos, Alexandros; Serrenho, André C.

2015-01-01

Exergy analysis has been used to quantify the historical resource use efficiency and environmental impact of transport systems. However, few exergy studies have explored future transport pathways. This study aims to, (a) develop a conceptual framework for the exergy analysis of multiple future transport and electricity pathways, (b) apply this framework to quantify future resource consumption and service delivery patterns, (c) discuss the policy-relevant results that exergy studies of future transport systems can offer. Multiple transport and electricity pathways developed by the UK Government are used to explore changes in energy use, useful work delivery and greenhouse gas emissions. In passenger transport, ambitious electrification results in a 20% increase of useful work delivery, whilst reducing GHG emissions and energy consumption by 65%. For freight, international shipping and aviation, smaller exergy efficiency improvements make useful work delivery and greenhouse gas emissions highly dependent on transport demand. Passenger transport electrification brings a step-change in useful work delivery, which if accompanied by low-carbon electricity, significantly reduces greenhouse gas emissions. The efficiency of low-carbon electricity systems is significant for useful work delivery, but not dominant across the scenarios explored. High penetration of renewables and electrified transport is the most resource-efficient combination in this context. - Highlights: • Develop an exergy analysis framework of future transport pathways and apply it to UK. • Electrification of personal transport brings step change in useful work delivery. • Efficiency of electricity supply becomes significant once transport is electrified. • High electrification increases useful work (+20%) and reduces emissions (−65%). • High penetration of renewables and electrified transport is most resource efficient

Evolution of the Converged NGN Service Platforms Towards Future Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eugen Mikóczy

2011-03-01

Full Text Available This article presents a comparison of main characteristics of the Next Generation Networks (NGN and Future Generation Internet (FGI. The aim is to discuss and compare two approaches to Future Networks (FN and services: the evolution of NGN, and the revolutionary approach of a new FGI. We present both frameworks from the services point of view as they are delivered to the end-user, as well as from the architectural point of view. We compare selected properties of both approaches to explain commonalities and differences. Their challenges are similar: managing the quality of experience, mobility, security, scalability and providing openness to applications. Based on this comparison, we evaluate possible areas for future convergence in the approach of the two architectures to the Future Network concept. Our analysis shows that despite their different backgrounds, the internet’s FGI and telco’s NGN are not that different after all. The convergence of the two approaches therefore seems the only logical way forward.

Acidic deposition: State of science and technology. Report 14. Methods for projecting future changes in surface water acid-base chemistry. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thornton, K.W.; Marmorek, D.; Ryan, P.F.; Heltcher, K.; Robinson, D.

1990-09-01

The objectives of the report are to: critically evaluate methods for projecting future effects of acidic deposition on surface water acid-base chemistry; review and evaluate techniques and procedures for analyzing projection uncertainty; review procedures for estimating regional lake and stream population attributes; review the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Direct/Delayed Response Project (DDRP) methodology for projecting the effects of acidic deposition on future changes in surface water acid-base chemistry; and present the models, uncertainty estimators, population estimators, and proposed approach selected to project the effects of acidic deposition on future changes in surface water acid-base chemistry in the NAPAP 1990 Integrated Assessment and discuss the selection rationale

Model-based Integration of Past & Future in TimeTravel

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khalefa, Mohamed E.; Fischer, Ulrike; Pedersen, Torben Bach

2012-01-01

We demonstrate TimeTravel, an efficient DBMS system for seamless integrated querying of past and (forecasted) future values of time series, allowing the user to view past and future values as one joint time series. This functionality is important for advanced application domain like energy....... The main idea is to compactly represent time series as models. By using models, the TimeTravel system answers queries approximately on past and future data with error guarantees (absolute error and confidence) one order of magnitude faster than when accessing the time series directly. In addition...... it to answer approximate and exact queries. TimeTravel is implemented into PostgreSQL, thus achieving complete user transparency at the query level. In the demo, we show the easy building of a hierarchical model index for a real-world time series and the effect of varying the error guarantees on the speed up...

White Paper on the Status and Future of Ground-based Gamma-Ray Astronomy - Extragalactic Science Working Group

Science.gov (United States)

Krawczynski, H.; Coppi, P.; Dermer, C.; Dwek, E.; Georganopoulos, M.; Horan, D.; Jones, T.; Krennrich, F.; Mukherjee, R.; Perlman, E.; Vassiliev, V.

2007-04-01

In fall 2006, the Division of Astrophysics of the American Physical Society requested a white paper about the status and future of ground based gamma-ray astronomy. The white paper will largely be written in the year 2007. Interested scientists are invited to join the science working groups. In this contribution, we will report on some preliminary results of the extragalactic science working group. We will discuss the potential of future ground based gamma-ray experiments to elucidate how supermassive black holes accrete matter, form jets, and accelerate particles, and to study in detail the acceleration and propagation of cosmic rays in extragalactic systems like infrared galaxies and galaxy clusters. Furthermore, we discuss avenues to constrain the spectrum of the extragalactic infrared to optical background radiation, and to measure the extragalactic magnetic fields based on gamma-ray observations. Eventually, we discuss the potential of ground based experiments for conducting gamma-ray source surveys. More information about the white paper can be found at: http://cherenkov.physics.iastate.edu/wp/

Impacts of Future Grassland Changes on Surface Climate in Mongolia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fan Zhang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change caused by land use/cover change (LUCC is becoming a hot topic in current global change, especially the changes caused by the grassland degradation. In this paper, based on the baseline underlying surface data of 1993, the predicted underlying surface data which can be derived through overlaying the grassland degradation information to the map of baseline underlying surface, and the atmospheric forcing data of RCP 6.0 from CMIP5, climatological changes caused by future grassland changes for the years 2010–2020 and 2040–2050 with the Weather Research Forecast model (WRF are simulated. The model-based analysis shows that future grassland degradation will significantly result in regional climate change. The grassland degradation in future could lead to an increasing trend of temperature in most areas and corresponding change range of the annual average temperature of −0.1°C–0.4°C, and it will cause a decreasing trend of precipitation and corresponding change range of the annual average precipitation of 10 mm–50 mm. This study identifies lines of evidence for effects of future grassland degradation on regional climate in Mongolia which provides meaningful decision-making information for the development and strategy plan making in Mongolia.

Insect-based protein: future promising protein source for fish cultured

Science.gov (United States)

Nugroho, R. A.; Nur, F. M.

2018-04-01

As one of the vital component feed used in fisheries, fishmeal (FM) is generally added to the fish diet to enhance fish growth, digestive performance and absorption of nutrients. This addition contributes significantly to the variable production cost in the aquaculture industry. Expanded production of carnivorous species requiring high protein, high-energy feeds will further tax global fish meal. Thus, research based on the low-cost budget for feed operating cost should be strategized to assist aquaculturists in enhancing fish productivity. Moreover, suitable alternative feed ingredients will have to be utilized to provide the essential nutrients and energy needed to fuel the growth of aquaculture production. To this effect, the use of insect-based protein sources to replace FM that often scarce, expensive, limited availability, and leads to high fish production costs is alternative ways and has been gaining momentum. Currently, Insects have been proposed as one of the potential future protein sources of protein because of the production of insects is highly sustainable. Farming insects is characterized by higher food conversion efficiencies, lower environmental impact, and higher potential to be grown on waste streams.

Baby boomers as future care users--An analysis of expectations in print media.

Science.gov (United States)

Jönson, Håkan; Jönsson, Anders

2015-08-01

The aim of the study was to investigate media presentations of baby boomers as future care users. The Swedish baby boomer generation, born in the 1940s, and known as the '40s generation, has been characterized as youthful and powerful, and a question investigated in the study was whether boomers are supposed to display these characteristics as care users. We analyzed 481 articles in Swedish newspapers, published between 1995 and 2012, with a qualitative content analysis. The results showed that the '40s generation was predicted to become a new breed of demanding, self-aware care users. These claims were supported by descriptions of the formative events and typical characteristics of these individuals, which were then projected onto their future behavior as care users. Such projections tended to portray contemporary care users as passive, submissive, and partly responsible for problems associated with elder care. Consequently, approaches that focus on differences between cohorts need to incorporate a constructionist dimension to highlight the problem of generationism. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Learner-Centered SEM and Competency-Based Education: Exploring the Learning Frontier of Graduate Enrollment Futures

Science.gov (United States)

Snowden, Monique L.

2014-01-01

In March 2013, the US Department of Education issued guidance to institutions on how to attain approval for competency-based programs under the current title IV, Higher Education Act (HEA) regulations on direct assessment programs. This article considers the graduate enrollment futures of colleges and universities that have chosen and will elect…

Team-Based Care: A Concept Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Baik, Dawon

2017-10-01

The purpose of this concept analysis is to clarify and analyze the concept of team-based care in clinical practice. Team-based care has garnered attention as a way to enhance healthcare delivery and patient care related to quality and safety. However, there is no consensus on the concept of team-based care; as a result, the lack of common definition impedes further studies on team-based care. This analysis was conducted using Walker and Avant's strategy. Literature searches were conducted using PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), and PsycINFO, with a timeline from January 1985 to December 2015. The analysis demonstrates that the concept of team-based care has three core attributes: (a) interprofessional collaboration, (b) patient-centered approach, and (c) integrated care process. This is accomplished through understanding other team members' roles and responsibilities, a climate of mutual respect, and organizational support. Consequences of team-based care are identified with three aspects: (a) patient, (b) healthcare professional, and (c) healthcare organization. This concept analysis helps better understand the characteristics of team-based care in the clinical practice as well as promote the development of a theoretical definition of team-based care. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Projecting Sexual and Injecting HIV Risks into Future Outcomes with Agent-Based Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Bobashev, Georgiy V.; Morris, Robert J.; Zule, William A.

Longitudinal studies of health outcomes for HIV could be very costly cumbersome and not representative of the risk population. Conversely, cross-sectional approaches could be representative but rely on the retrospective information to estimate prevalence and incidence. We present an Agent-based Modeling (ABM) approach where we use behavioral data from a cross-sectional representative study and project the behavior into the future so that the risks of acquiring HIV could be studied in a dynamical/temporal sense. We show how the blend of behavior and contact network factors (sexual, injecting) play the role in the risk of future HIV acquisition and time till obtaining HIV. We show which subjects are the most likely persons to get HIV in the next year, and whom they are likely to infect. We examine how different behaviors are related to the increase or decrease of HIV risks and how to estimate the quantifiable risk measures such as survival HIV free.

Trajectory Based Traffic Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Krogh, Benjamin Bjerre; Andersen, Ove; Lewis-Kelham, Edwin

2013-01-01

We present the INTRA system for interactive path-based traffic analysis. The analyses are developed in collaboration with traffic researchers and provide novel insights into conditions such as congestion, travel-time, choice of route, and traffic-flow. INTRA supports interactive point-and-click a......We present the INTRA system for interactive path-based traffic analysis. The analyses are developed in collaboration with traffic researchers and provide novel insights into conditions such as congestion, travel-time, choice of route, and traffic-flow. INTRA supports interactive point......-and-click analysis, due to a novel and efficient indexing structure. With the web-site daisy.aau.dk/its/spqdemo/we will demonstrate several analyses, using a very large real-world data set consisting of 1.9 billion GPS records (1.5 million trajectories) recorded from more than 13000 vehicles, and touching most...

Stability and Growth Pact – critical analysis and perspectives of the future development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert Plaga

2004-01-01

Full Text Available This working paper seeks to define perspectives of the functioning of the Stability and Growth Pact as a tool for regulation of national fiscal policies through analysis and description of legal acts regarding the Pact and through analysis and statistical evaluation of the compliance of the EMU States with requirements for fiscal discipline. The first part brings the description of the Pact's functioning mechanism and defines its weaknesses (e.g. extensive role of the Council. The second part tries to analyse and statistically evaluate how the Member States complied with the provisions of the Pact during the years 1999-2003. The results are compared with the most mentioned shortcomings of the Pact. In the concluding part the paper discusses proposals for a change of the Pact and tries to estimate perspectives of its functioning in the future.

Analysis on the Influence of Stock Index Futures on Chinese Stock Market

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

王钊

2014-01-01

As the first product of financial futures in China, CSI 300 Stock Index Futures is a symbol of the continual improvement and development of Chinese capital market system. So it would be bound to generate immeasurable influence on Chinese capital market and financial system. Starting from introducing the relevant summaries of stock index futures, this paper analyzes the influence of the stock index futures on the fluctuation in the international stock market;then, it analyzes influence of the stock index futures on the fluctuation in Chinese stock market, in order to propose some suggestions to the policies for developing Chinese stock index futures.

Autonoetic consciousness: Reconsidering the role of episodic memory in future-oriented self-projection.

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, Stanley B

2016-01-01

Following the seminal work of Ingvar (1985. "Memory for the future": An essay on the temporal organization of conscious awareness. Human Neurobiology, 4, 127-136), Suddendorf (1994. The discovery of the fourth dimension: Mental time travel and human evolution. Master's thesis. University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand), and Tulving (1985. Memory and consciousness. Canadian Psychology/PsychologieCanadienne, 26, 1-12), exploration of the ability to anticipate and prepare for future contingencies that cannot be known with certainty has grown into a thriving research enterprise. A fundamental tenet of this line of inquiry is that future-oriented mental time travel, in most of its presentations, is underwritten by a property or an extension of episodic recollection. However, a careful conceptual analysis of exactly how episodic memory functions in this capacity has yet to be undertaken. In this paper I conduct such an analysis. Based on conceptual, phenomenological, and empirical considerations, I conclude that the autonoetic component of episodic memory, not episodic memory per se, is the causally determinative factor enabling an individual to project him or herself into a personal future.

Mental time travel to the future might be reduced in sleep.

Science.gov (United States)

Speth, Jana; Schloerscheidt, Astrid M; Speth, Clemens

2017-02-01

We present a quantitative study of mental time travel to the future in sleep. Three independent, blind judges analysed a total of 563 physiology-monitored mentation reports from sleep onset, REM sleep, non-REM sleep, and waking. The linguistic tool for the mentation report analysis is based on established grammatical and cognitive-semantic theories and has been validated in previous studies. Our data indicate that REM and non-REM sleep must be characterized by a reduction in mental time travel to the future, which would support earlier physiological evidence at the level of brain function. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk-based decision analysis for the 200-BP-5 groundwater operable unit. Revision 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiaramonte, G.R.

1996-02-01

This document presents data from a risk analysis that was performed on three groundwater contaminant plumes within the 200-BP-5 Operable Unit. Hypothetical exposure scenarios were assessed based on current and future plume conditions. For current conditions, a hypothetical industrial groundwater scenarios were assumed. The industrial ingestion scenario, which is derived from HSRAM, was not used for drinking water and should not be implied by this risk analysis that the DOE is advocating use of this groundwater for direct human ingestion. Risk was calculated at each monitoring well using the observed radionuclide concentrations in groundwater from that well. The calculated values represent total radiological incremental lifetime cancer risk. Computer models were used to show the analytical flow and transport of contaminants of concern

Performance Evaluation of Public Key Based Authentication in Future Mobile Communication Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kambourakis Georgios

2004-01-01

Full Text Available While mobile hosts are evolving into full-IP enabled devices, there is a greater demand to provide a more flexible, reconfigurable, and scalable security mechanism in mobile communication systems beyond 3G (B3G. Work has already begun on such an “all-IP” end-to-end solution, commonly referred to as 4G systems. Fully fledged integration between heterogeneous networks, such as 2.5G, UMTS, WLAN, Bluetooth, and the Internet, demands fully compatible, time-tested, and reliable mechanisms to depend on. SSL protocol has proved its effectiveness in the wired Internet and it will probably be the most promising candidate for future wireless environments. In this paper, we discuss existing problems related to authentication and key agreement (AKA procedures, such as compromised authentication vectors attacks, as they appear in current 2/2.5G/3G mobile communication systems, and propose how SSL, combined with public key infrastructure (PKI elements, can be used to overcome these vulnerabilities. In this B3G environment, we perceive authentication as a service, which has to be performed at the higher protocol layers irrespective of the underlying network technology. Furthermore, we analyze the effectiveness of such a solution, based on measurements of a “prototype” implementation. Performance measurements indicate that SSL-based authentication can be possible in terms of service time in future wireless systems, while it can simultaneously provide both the necessary flexibility to network operators and a high level of confidence to end users.

Future perspective of thorium based nuclear fuels and thorium potential of Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unak, T.; Yildirim, Y.

2001-01-01

Today's nuclear technology has principally been based on the use of fissile U-235 and Pu-239. he existence of thorium in the nature and its potential use in the nuclear technology were not unfortunately into account with a sufficient importance. The global distributions of thorium and uranium reserves indicate that in general some developed countries such as the USA, Canada, Australia, France have considerable uranium reserves, and contrarily only some developing countries such as Turkey, Brazil, India, Egypt have considerable thorium reserves. The studies carried out on the thorium during the last 50 years have clearly showed that the thorium based nuclear fuels have the potential easily use in most of reactor types actually operated with the classical uranium based nuclear fuels without any considerable modification. In the case of the use of thorium based nuclear fuels in future nuclear energy production systems, the serious problems such as the excess of Pu-239, the proliferation potential of nuclear weapons, and also the anxious of nuclear terrorism will probably be resolved, and sustainable nuclear energy production will be realized in the next new century. (authors)

Future perspective of thorium based nuclear fuels and thorium potential of Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unak, T.; Yildirim, Y.

2000-01-01

Today's nuclear technology has principally been based on the use of fissile U-235 and Pu-239. The existence of thorium in the nature and its potential use in the nuclear technology were not unfortunately into account with a sufficient importance. The global distributions of thorium and uranium reserves indicate that in general some developed countries such as the USA, Canada, Australia, France have considerable uranium reserves, and contrarily only some developing countries such as Turkey, Brazil, India, Egypt have considerable thorium reserves. The studies carried out on the thorium during the last 50 years have clearly showed that the thorium based nuclear fuels have the potential easily use in most of reactor types actually operated with the classical uranium based nuclear fuels without any considerable modification. In the case of the use of thorium based nuclear fuels in future nuclear energy production systems, the serious problems such as the excess of Pu-239, the proliferation potential of nuclear weapons, and also the anxious of nuclear terrorism will probably be resolved, and sustainable nuclear energy production will be realized in the next new century. (authors)

The future of monitoring in clinical research - a holistic approach: linking risk-based monitoring with quality management principles.

Science.gov (United States)

Ansmann, Eva B; Hecht, Arthur; Henn, Doris K; Leptien, Sabine; Stelzer, Hans Günther

2013-01-01

Since several years risk-based monitoring is the new "magic bullet" for improvement in clinical research. Lots of authors in clinical research ranging from industry and academia to authorities are keen on demonstrating better monitoring-efficiency by reducing monitoring visits, monitoring time on site, monitoring costs and so on, always arguing with the use of risk-based monitoring principles. Mostly forgotten is the fact, that the use of risk-based monitoring is only adequate if all mandatory prerequisites at site and for the monitor and the sponsor are fulfilled.Based on the relevant chapter in ICH GCP (International Conference on Harmonisation of technical requirements for registration of pharmaceuticals for human use - Good Clinical Practice) this publication takes a holistic approach by identifying and describing the requirements for future monitoring and the use of risk-based monitoring. As the authors are operational managers as well as QA (Quality Assurance) experts, both aspects are represented to come up with efficient and qualitative ways of future monitoring according to ICH GCP.

A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

2014-03-01

GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty-sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights.

DNA fingerprinting in forensics: past, present, future.

Science.gov (United States)

Roewer, Lutz

2013-11-18

DNA fingerprinting, one of the great discoveries of the late 20th century, has revolutionized forensic investigations. This review briefly recapitulates 30 years of progress in forensic DNA analysis which helps to convict criminals, exonerate the wrongly accused, and identify victims of crime, disasters, and war. Current standard methods based on short tandem repeats (STRs) as well as lineage markers (Y chromosome, mitochondrial DNA) are covered and applications are illustrated by casework examples. Benefits and risks of expanding forensic DNA databases are discussed and we ask what the future holds for forensic DNA fingerprinting.

Structural Path Analysis of Fossil Fuel Based CO2 Emissions: A Case Study for China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhiyong Yang

Full Text Available Environmentally extended input-output analysis (EEIOA has long been used to quantify global and regional environmental impacts and to clarify emission transfers. Structural path analysis (SPA, a technique based on EEIOA, is especially useful for measuring significant flows in this environmental-economic system. This paper constructs an imports-adjusted single-region input-output (SRIO model considering only domestic final use elements, and it uses the SPA technique to highlight crucial routes along the production chain in both final use and sectoral perspectives. The results indicate that future mitigation policies on household consumption should change direct energy use structures in rural areas, cut unreasonable demand for power and chemical products, and focus on urban areas due to their consistently higher magnitudes than rural areas in the structural routes. Impacts originating from government spending should be tackled by managing onsite energy use in 3 major service sectors and promoting cleaner fuels and energy-saving techniques in the transport sector. Policies on investment should concentrate on sectoral interrelationships along the production chain by setting up standards to regulate upstream industries, especially for the services, construction and equipment manufacturing sectors, which have high demand pulling effects. Apart from the similar methods above, mitigating policies in exports should also consider improving embodied technology and quality in manufactured products to achieve sustainable development. Additionally, detailed sectoral results in the coal extraction industry highlight the onsite energy use management in large domestic companies, emphasize energy structure rearrangement, and indicate resources and energy safety issues. Conclusions based on the construction and public administration sectors reveal that future mitigation in secondary and tertiary industries should be combined with upstream emission intensive

Structural Path Analysis of Fossil Fuel Based CO2 Emissions: A Case Study for China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Zhiyong; Dong, Wenjie; Xiu, Jinfeng; Dai, Rufeng; Chou, Jieming

2015-01-01

Environmentally extended input-output analysis (EEIOA) has long been used to quantify global and regional environmental impacts and to clarify emission transfers. Structural path analysis (SPA), a technique based on EEIOA, is especially useful for measuring significant flows in this environmental-economic system. This paper constructs an imports-adjusted single-region input-output (SRIO) model considering only domestic final use elements, and it uses the SPA technique to highlight crucial routes along the production chain in both final use and sectoral perspectives. The results indicate that future mitigation policies on household consumption should change direct energy use structures in rural areas, cut unreasonable demand for power and chemical products, and focus on urban areas due to their consistently higher magnitudes than rural areas in the structural routes. Impacts originating from government spending should be tackled by managing onsite energy use in 3 major service sectors and promoting cleaner fuels and energy-saving techniques in the transport sector. Policies on investment should concentrate on sectoral interrelationships along the production chain by setting up standards to regulate upstream industries, especially for the services, construction and equipment manufacturing sectors, which have high demand pulling effects. Apart from the similar methods above, mitigating policies in exports should also consider improving embodied technology and quality in manufactured products to achieve sustainable development. Additionally, detailed sectoral results in the coal extraction industry highlight the onsite energy use management in large domestic companies, emphasize energy structure rearrangement, and indicate resources and energy safety issues. Conclusions based on the construction and public administration sectors reveal that future mitigation in secondary and tertiary industries should be combined with upstream emission intensive industries in a

[Current status and future of telemonitoring : Scenarios for telemedical care in 2025].

Science.gov (United States)

Zippel-Schultz, Bettina; Schultz, Carsten; Helms, Thomas M

2017-09-01

Telemonitoring is an already realized implementation of digital transformation in the healthcare system. It has the potential to support and secure a sustainable and comprehensive provision of healthcare for a rising number of chronically ill patients, e. g. patients with chronic heart failure. Remote regions in particular can profit from the benefits of telemonitoring; however, so far telemonitoring services have not become truly established in the German healthcare market. Together with experts from politics, science and practice, a scenario analysis "Health Care System 2025 - A Place for Telemonitoring?" was carried out with the aim to examine the future development of the healthcare market and to draw conclusions for providers of telemonitoring services or devices. The scenario analysis contained two workshops and an expert survey and was supported by a scenario software. The current drivers and barriers of the diffusion of telemonitoring were identified and the most relevant factors that influence the future development of the healthcare market were discussed. Based on those influencing factors, three different scenarios were determined: (1) administrating rather than shaping, (2) safely into the future and (3) interconnected and digital world. In the subsequent consequence analysis activities were defined, which describe the necessary infrastructure, software instruments, organizational structures and provision of services and discuss possible activities, which prepare telemonitoring solutions for the future.

Significance of Bias Correction in Drought Frequency and Scenario Analysis Based on Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Aryal, Y.; Zhu, J.

2015-12-01

Assessment of future drought characteristics is difficult as climate models usually have bias in simulating precipitation frequency and intensity. To overcome this limitation, output from climate models need to be bias corrected based on the specific purpose of applications. In this study, we examine the significance of bias correction in the context of drought frequency and scenario analysis using output from climate models. In particular, we investigate the performance of three widely used bias correction techniques: (1) monthly bias correction (MBC), (2) nested bias correction (NBC), and (3) equidistance quantile mapping (EQM) The effect of bias correction in future scenario of drought frequency is also analyzed. The characteristics of drought are investigated in terms of frequency and severity in nine representative locations in different climatic regions across the United States using regional climate model (RCM) output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used as the means to compare and forecast drought characteristics at different timescales. Systematic biases in the RCM precipitation output are corrected against the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data. The results demonstrate that bias correction significantly decreases the RCM errors in reproducing drought frequency derived from the NARR data. Preserving mean and standard deviation is essential for climate models in drought frequency analysis. RCM biases both have regional and timescale dependence. Different timescale of input precipitation in the bias corrections show similar results. Drought frequency obtained from the RCM future (2040-2070) scenarios is compared with that from the historical simulations. The changes in drought characteristics occur in all climatic regions. The relative changes in drought frequency in future scenario in relation to

Hand-Based Biometric Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Bebis, George (Inventor); Amayeh, Gholamreza (Inventor)

2015-01-01

Hand-based biometric analysis systems and techniques are described which provide robust hand-based identification and verification. An image of a hand is obtained, which is then segmented into a palm region and separate finger regions. Acquisition of the image is performed without requiring particular orientation or placement restrictions. Segmentation is performed without the use of reference points on the images. Each segment is analyzed by calculating a set of Zernike moment descriptors for the segment. The feature parameters thus obtained are then fused and compared to stored sets of descriptors in enrollment templates to arrive at an identity decision. By using Zernike moments, and through additional manipulation, the biometric analysis is invariant to rotation, scale, or translation or an in put image. Additionally, the analysis utilizes re-use of commonly-seen terms in Zernike calculations to achieve additional efficiencies over traditional Zernike moment calculation.

Analysis of the Multi Strategy Goal Programming for Micro-Grid Based on Dynamic ant Genetic Algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Qiu, J. P.; Niu, D. X.

Micro-grid is one of the key technologies of the future energy supplies. Take economic planning. reliability, and environmental protection of micro grid as a basis for the analysis of multi-strategy objective programming problems for micro grid which contains wind power, solar power, and battery and micro gas turbine. Establish the mathematical model of each power generation characteristics and energy dissipation. and change micro grid planning multi-objective function under different operating strategies to a single objective model based on AHP method. Example analysis shows that in combination with dynamic ant mixed genetic algorithm can get the optimal power output of this model.

Prediction Model of Collapse Risk Based on Information Entropy and Distance Discriminant Analysis Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hujun He

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The prediction and risk classification of collapse is an important issue in the process of highway construction in mountainous regions. Based on the principles of information entropy and Mahalanobis distance discriminant analysis, we have produced a collapse hazard prediction model. We used the entropy measure method to reduce the influence indexes of the collapse activity and extracted the nine main indexes affecting collapse activity as the discriminant factors of the distance discriminant analysis model (i.e., slope shape, aspect, gradient, and height, along with exposure of the structural face, stratum lithology, relationship between weakness face and free face, vegetation cover rate, and degree of rock weathering. We employ postearthquake collapse data in relation to construction of the Yingxiu-Wolong highway, Hanchuan County, China, as training samples for analysis. The results were analyzed using the back substitution estimation method, showing high accuracy and no errors, and were the same as the prediction result of uncertainty measure. Results show that the classification model based on information entropy and distance discriminant analysis achieves the purpose of index optimization and has excellent performance, high prediction accuracy, and a zero false-positive rate. The model can be used as a tool for future evaluation of collapse risk.

Analysis of QCD sum rule based on the maximum entropy method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gubler, Philipp

2012-01-01

QCD sum rule was developed about thirty years ago and has been used up to the present to calculate various physical quantities like hadrons. It has been, however, needed to assume 'pole + continuum' for the spectral function in the conventional analyses. Application of this method therefore came across with difficulties when the above assumption is not satisfied. In order to avoid this difficulty, analysis to make use of the maximum entropy method (MEM) has been developed by the present author. It is reported here how far this new method can be successfully applied. In the first section, the general feature of the QCD sum rule is introduced. In section 2, it is discussed why the analysis by the QCD sum rule based on the MEM is so effective. In section 3, the MEM analysis process is described, and in the subsection 3.1 likelihood function and prior probability are considered then in subsection 3.2 numerical analyses are picked up. In section 4, some cases of applications are described starting with ρ mesons, then charmoniums in the finite temperature and finally recent developments. Some figures of the spectral functions are shown. In section 5, summing up of the present analysis method and future view are given. (S. Funahashi)

Some possibilities of utilisation of TRIGA reactors in the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stegnar, Peter; Byrne, Anthony R.

2008-01-01

Full text. In this presentation, some possibilities for the future use of TRIGA reactors are discussed. The use and practical applications of neutron activation analysis, both in instrumental and radiochemical analysis, is presented based on the experience of the Institute's TRIGA Mark II Reactor in Ljubljana. The limited use of isotope production for medicine and industry is also discussed as well as some other potential applications, i.e. prompt gamma neutron activation analysis and an approach to BNCT (Boron Neutron Capture Therapy). The possibility of using TRIGA reactors for training in nuclear safety, radiological protection and other relevant fields of science and technology is also addressed in the presentation

Multivariate meta-analysis: a robust approach based on the theory of U-statistic.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Yan; Mazumdar, Madhu

2011-10-30

Meta-analysis is the methodology for combining findings from similar research studies asking the same question. When the question of interest involves multiple outcomes, multivariate meta-analysis is used to synthesize the outcomes simultaneously taking into account the correlation between the outcomes. Likelihood-based approaches, in particular restricted maximum likelihood (REML) method, are commonly utilized in this context. REML assumes a multivariate normal distribution for the random-effects model. This assumption is difficult to verify, especially for meta-analysis with small number of component studies. The use of REML also requires iterative estimation between parameters, needing moderately high computation time, especially when the dimension of outcomes is large. A multivariate method of moments (MMM) is available and is shown to perform equally well to REML. However, there is a lack of information on the performance of these two methods when the true data distribution is far from normality. In this paper, we propose a new nonparametric and non-iterative method for multivariate meta-analysis on the basis of the theory of U-statistic and compare the properties of these three procedures under both normal and skewed data through simulation studies. It is shown that the effect on estimates from REML because of non-normal data distribution is marginal and that the estimates from MMM and U-statistic-based approaches are very similar. Therefore, we conclude that for performing multivariate meta-analysis, the U-statistic estimation procedure is a viable alternative to REML and MMM. Easy implementation of all three methods are illustrated by their application to data from two published meta-analysis from the fields of hip fracture and periodontal disease. We discuss ideas for future research based on U-statistic for testing significance of between-study heterogeneity and for extending the work to meta-regression setting. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Interplay between past market correlation structure changes and future volatility outbursts

Science.gov (United States)

Musmeci, Nicoló; Aste, Tomaso; Di Matteo, T.

2016-11-01

We report significant relations between past changes in the market correlation structure and future changes in the market volatility. This relation is made evident by using a measure of “correlation structure persistence” on correlation-based information filtering networks that quantifies the rate of change of the market dependence structure. We also measured changes in the correlation structure by means of a “metacorrelation” that measures a lagged correlation between correlation matrices computed over different time windows. Both methods show a deep interplay between past changes in correlation structure and future changes in volatility and we demonstrate they can anticipate market risk variations and this can be used to better forecast portfolio risk. Notably, these methods overcome the curse of dimensionality that limits the applicability of traditional econometric tools to portfolios made of a large number of assets. We report on forecasting performances and statistical significance of both methods for two different equity datasets. We also identify an optimal region of parameters in terms of True Positive and False Positive trade-off, through a ROC curve analysis. We find that this forecasting method is robust and it outperforms logistic regression predictors based on past volatility only. Moreover the temporal analysis indicates that methods based on correlation structural persistence are able to adapt to abrupt changes in the market, such as financial crises, more rapidly than methods based on past volatility.

Current and future industrial energy service characterizations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krawiec, F.; Thomas, T.; Jackson, F.; Limaye, D.R.; Isser, S.; Karnofsky, K.; Davis, T.D.

1980-10-01

Current and future energy demands, end uses, and cost used to characterize typical applications and resultant services in the industrial sector of the United States and 15 selected states are examined. A review and evaluation of existing industrial energy data bases was undertaken to assess their potential for supporting SERI research on: (1) market suitability analysis, (2) market development, (3) end-use matching, (3) industrial applications case studies, and (4) identification of cost and performance goals for solar systems and typical information requirements for industrial energy end use. In reviewing existing industrial energy data bases, the level of detail, disaggregation, and primary sources of information were examined. The focus was on fuels and electric energy used for heat and power purchased by the manufacturing subsector and listed by 2-, 3-, and 4-digit SIC, primary fuel, and end use. Projections of state level energy prices to 1990 are developed using the energy intensity approach. The effects of federal and state industrial energy conservation programs on future industrial sector demands were assessed. Future end-use energy requirements were developed for each 4-digit SIC industry and were grouped as follows: (1) hot water, (2) steam (212 to 300/sup 0/F, each 100/sup 0/F interval from 300 to 1000/sup 0/F, and greater than 1000/sup 0/F), and (3) hot air (100/sup 0/F intervals). Volume I details the activities performed in this effort.

Valuation Bases and Accounting System Entries in Financial Analysis of the Municipal Real Property

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniela Feschiyan

2013-08-01

Full Text Available The paper introduces a conceptual framework for an accounting of the municipal real property, and defines a respective system of indicators. The development of this framework is seen as an important prerequisite for the efficient property management. It aims to overcome the lack or poor accessibility of the information, and thus to ensure the successful municipal real property management in a strategic context. The developing of the applied approach implies that accounting indicators are divided into three main groups – values, revenues, and costs. Beside the above mentioned classification, the municipal revenues and costs are classified also as existing and proposed. The existing indicators are defined by International Accounting Standards in public sector, and some of them are considered as being appropriate for the inclusion in the financial analysis as accounting system entries. The proposed indicators are perceived as appropriate to carry out a detailed analysis of the municipal property at a lower level of desegregations. The first two paragraphs explain the main bases for the municipal property valuation - historical cost, current price, market value, present value, with a special emphasis on the use of the historical value, and the types of valuation respectively. The next three paragraphs are concentrated mainly on the accounting indicators for the municipal property assessment. The sixth paragraph represents several major accounting bases - an accounting value, a carrying value, a market value, an accumulated depreciation, revenues from the sale of assets and services, costs by economic elements, revenues from future periods and costs for future periods, and revenues from other events and costs for other events. The seventh section presents a brief comparative analysis of accounting systems of 6 municipalities in South-Eastern Europe and the last paragraph highlights the identified “good practices”.

Ecology, Economy and security of supply of the Dutch Electricity Supply System. A scenario based future analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roedel, J.G.

2008-01-01

The Dutch electricity sector has been transformed into a liberalized international energy market. Market players are free to choose from various electricity generation options when replacing or expanding production capacity. However, choices that are made now will influence emissions (ecology), integral costs (economy) and availability (security of supply) for the next 25 - 40 years. This thesis shows if and how, based on the current electricity supply system, an optimal balance of ecology, economy and security of supply can be achieved. First, the current electricity supply system is described to create a frame of reference. Then, future technological developments are described for electricity production options. Four potential scenarios are constructed featuring various uncertainties: the globalising versus the local economy; priority versus subordination for the environment; and the security/insecurity of the fuel supply. These four scenarios are worked out with a specially developed techno-economic simulation model; the results are analysed in terms of ecology, economy and security of supply. The findings indicate that it is impossible to arrive at an optimal balance for the defined scenarios. Scenarios with a low environmental impact lead to high integral costs and vice versa. However, by applying a smart combination of various modern generation technologies, CO2 capture and storage, the deployment of biomass and the re-use of residual heat it is possible to reach an optimal balance whereby the additional integral costs can be kept under control compared with the lowest-cost scenarios. To achieve this, clear growth and incentive guidelines need to be established for the various production options. This thesis will form a good starting point for that exercise

Utilization of Used Nuclear Fuel in a Potential Future US Fuel Cycle Scenario - 13499

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Worrall, Andrew [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, P.O. BOX 2008 MS6172, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831-6172 (United States)

2013-07-01

To date, the US reactor fleet has generated approximately 68,000 MTHM of used nuclear fuel (UNF) and even with no new nuclear build in the US, this stockpile will continue to grow at approximately 2,000 MTHM per year for several more decades. In the absence of reprocessing and recycle, this UNF is a liability and needs to be dealt with accordingly. However, with the development of future fuel cycle and reactor technologies in the decades ahead, there is potential for UNF to be used effectively and efficiently within a future US nuclear reactor fleet. Based on the detailed expected operating lifetimes, the future UNF discharges from the existing reactor fleet have been calculated on a yearly basis. Assuming a given electricity demand growth in the US and a corresponding growth demand for nuclear energy via new nuclear build, the future discharges of UNF have also been calculated on a yearly basis. Using realistic assumptions about reprocessing technologies and timescales and which future fuels are likely to be reprocessed, the amount of plutonium that could be separated and stored for future reactor technologies has been determined. With fast reactors (FRs) unlikely to be commercially available until 2050, any new nuclear build prior to then is assumed to be a light water reactor (LWR). If the decision is made for the US to proceed with reprocessing by 2030, the analysis shows that the UNF from future fuels discharged from 2025 onwards from the new and existing fleet of LWRs is sufficient to fuel a realistic future demand from FRs. The UNF arising from the existing LWR fleet prior to 2025 can be disposed of directly with no adverse effect on the potential to deploy a FR fleet from 2050 onwards. Furthermore, only a proportion of the UNF is required to be reprocessed from the existing fleet after 2025. All of the analyses and conclusions are based on realistic deployment timescales for reprocessing and reactor deployment. The impact of the delay in recycling the UNF

Utilization of Used Nuclear Fuel in a Potential Future US Fuel Cycle Scenario - 13499

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Worrall, Andrew

2013-01-01

To date, the US reactor fleet has generated approximately 68,000 MTHM of used nuclear fuel (UNF) and even with no new nuclear build in the US, this stockpile will continue to grow at approximately 2,000 MTHM per year for several more decades. In the absence of reprocessing and recycle, this UNF is a liability and needs to be dealt with accordingly. However, with the development of future fuel cycle and reactor technologies in the decades ahead, there is potential for UNF to be used effectively and efficiently within a future US nuclear reactor fleet. Based on the detailed expected operating lifetimes, the future UNF discharges from the existing reactor fleet have been calculated on a yearly basis. Assuming a given electricity demand growth in the US and a corresponding growth demand for nuclear energy via new nuclear build, the future discharges of UNF have also been calculated on a yearly basis. Using realistic assumptions about reprocessing technologies and timescales and which future fuels are likely to be reprocessed, the amount of plutonium that could be separated and stored for future reactor technologies has been determined. With fast reactors (FRs) unlikely to be commercially available until 2050, any new nuclear build prior to then is assumed to be a light water reactor (LWR). If the decision is made for the US to proceed with reprocessing by 2030, the analysis shows that the UNF from future fuels discharged from 2025 onwards from the new and existing fleet of LWRs is sufficient to fuel a realistic future demand from FRs. The UNF arising from the existing LWR fleet prior to 2025 can be disposed of directly with no adverse effect on the potential to deploy a FR fleet from 2050 onwards. Furthermore, only a proportion of the UNF is required to be reprocessed from the existing fleet after 2025. All of the analyses and conclusions are based on realistic deployment timescales for reprocessing and reactor deployment. The impact of the delay in recycling the UNF

Future engineering skills, knowledge, and identity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kolmos, Anette

2006-01-01

What are the requirements engineers are going to meet in the future? We do not know – but we have some predictions based on the technological, scientific, and societal development. Normally, these requirement analyses are based on only the technological and scientific development. In this chapter......, this traditional approach will be supplemented with socio-cultural considerations concerning the development of future societies. The point is that it is no longer enough to base development of engineering skills on trends in technological and scientific development – even though this approach in undergoing...... as at an individual level. The chapter will end by analyzing if the existing engineering education contributes to the outline of future skills....

Future markers of the West Greenlandic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Trondhjem, Naja Blytmann

2010-01-01

Abstract West Greenlandic, a polysynthetic language, belongs to Inuit languages. In Inuktitut (Canada) and West Greenlandic (Inuit languages) tense is marked by optional tense suffixes and in both languages the temporal systems are based on a future/ non-future opposition. In Inuktitut the tense...... suffixes have developed a complicated remoteness system. In West Greenlandic the future tense suffixes have a distinction between vague and inevitable future, and the past time suffixes have developed different perfect meanings. In Iñupiaq (Alaska), the temporal system is based on an opposition between...... past, present and future, where tense is marked in the flectional morpheme, but only in the indicative mood. There are only a few tense suffixes. The meanings of these tense suffixes are the same as those of the West Greenlandic tense suffixes. My current work is a typological investigation about...

John Adams Lecture | Accelerator-Based Neutrino Physics: Past, Present and Future by Kenneth Long | 8 December

CERN Multimedia

2014-01-01

John Adams Lecture: Accelerator-Based Neutrino Physics: Past, Present and Future by Dr. Kenneth Long (Imperial College London & STFC).   Monday, 8 December 2014 from 2 p.m. to 4 p.m. at CERN ( 503-1-001 - Council Chamber ) Abstract: The study of the neutrino is the study of physics beyond the Standard Model. We now know that the neutrinos have mass and that neutrino mixing occurs causing neutrino flavour to oscillate as neutrinos propagate through space and time. Further, some measurements can be interpreted as hints for new particles known as sterile neutrinos. The measured values of the mixing parameters make it possible that the matter-antimatter (CP) symmetry may be violated through the mixing process. The consequences of observing CP-invariance violation in neutrinos would be profound. To discover CP-invariance violation will require measurements of exquisite precision. Accelerator-based neutrino sources are central to the future programme and advances in technique are required ...

Current activities and future trends in reliability analysis and probabilistic safety assessment in Hungary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hollo, E.; Toth, J.

1986-01-01

In Hungary reliability analysis (RA) and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants was initiated 3 years ago. First, computer codes for automatic fault tree analysis (CAT, PREP) and numerical evaluation (REMO, KITT1,2) were adapted. Two main case studies - detailed availability/reliability calculation of diesel sets and analysis of safety systems influencing event sequences induced by large LOCA - were performed. Input failure data were taken from publications, a need for failure and reliability data bank was revealed. Current and future activities involves: setup of national data bank for WWER-440 units; full-scope level-I PSA of PAKS NPP in Hungary; operational safety assessment of particular problems at PAKS NPP. In the present article the state of RA and PSA activities in Hungary, as well as the main objectives of ongoing work are described. A need for international cooperation (for unified data collection of WWER-440 units) and for IAEA support (within Interregional Program INT/9/063) is emphasized. (author)

Current advances and future perspectives in extrusion-based bioprinting.

Science.gov (United States)

Ozbolat, Ibrahim T; Hospodiuk, Monika

2016-01-01

Extrusion-based bioprinting (EBB) is a rapidly growing technology that has made substantial progress during the last decade. It has great versatility in printing various biologics, including cells, tissues, tissue constructs, organ modules and microfluidic devices, in applications from basic research and pharmaceutics to clinics. Despite the great benefits and flexibility in printing a wide range of bioinks, including tissue spheroids, tissue strands, cell pellets, decellularized matrix components, micro-carriers and cell-laden hydrogels, the technology currently faces several limitations and challenges. These include impediments to organ fabrication, the limited resolution of printed features, the need for advanced bioprinting solutions to transition the technology bench to bedside, the necessity of new bioink development for rapid, safe and sustainable delivery of cells in a biomimetically organized microenvironment, and regulatory concerns to transform the technology into a product. This paper, presenting a first-time comprehensive review of EBB, discusses the current advancements in EBB technology and highlights future directions to transform the technology to generate viable end products for tissue engineering and regenerative medicine. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk management of stock index futures

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2008-01-01

The Hong Kong Hang Seng index futures is taken as a study object and a method of empirical analysis is adopted in order to verify the validity of the application of the value-at-risk (VaR) method in the risk measurement of the stock index futures market. The results suggest that under normal market conditions it is feasible to apply the VaR method in the measurement of the market risks of stock index futures. The daily VaR value of the stock index futures provides a foreseeable profit and loss of the stock ...

Applying Place-Based Social-Ecological Research to Address Water Scarcity: Insights for Future Research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio J. Castro

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Globally, environmental and social change in water-scarce regions challenge the sustainability of social-ecological systems. WaterSES, a sponsored working group within the Program for Ecosystem Change and Society, explores and compares the social-ecological dynamics related to water scarcity across placed-based international research sites with contrasting local and regional water needs and governance, including research sites in Spain and Sweden in Europe, South Africa, China, and Alabama, Idaho, Oklahoma, and Texas in the USA. This paper aims to provide a commentary on insights into conducting future solutions-oriented research on water scarcity based on the understanding of the social-ecological dynamics of water scarce regions.

A web-based tool to engage stakeholders in informing research planning for future decisions on emerging materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Powers, Christina M.; Grieger, Khara D.; Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Meacham, Connie A.; Gurevich, Gerald; Lassiter, Meredith Gooding; Money, Eric S.; Lloyd, Jennifer M.; Beaulieu, Stephen M.

2014-01-01

Prioritizing and assessing risks associated with chemicals, industrial materials, or emerging technologies is a complex problem that benefits from the involvement of multiple stakeholder groups. For example, in the case of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs), scientific uncertainties exist that hamper environmental, health, and safety (EHS) assessments. Therefore, alternative approaches to standard EHS assessment methods have gained increased attention. The objective of this paper is to describe the application of a web-based, interactive decision support tool developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) in a pilot study on ENMs. The piloted tool implements U.S. EPA's comprehensive environmental assessment (CEA) approach to prioritize research gaps. When pursued, such research priorities can result in data that subsequently improve the scientific robustness of risk assessments and inform future risk management decisions. Pilot results suggest that the tool was useful in facilitating multi-stakeholder prioritization of research gaps. Results also provide potential improvements for subsequent applications. The outcomes of future CEAWeb applications with larger stakeholder groups may inform the development of funding opportunities for emerging materials across the scientific community (e.g., National Science Foundation Science to Achieve Results [STAR] grants, National Institutes of Health Requests for Proposals). - Highlights: • A web-based, interactive decision support tool was piloted for emerging materials. • The tool (CEAWeb) was based on an established approach to prioritize research gaps. • CEAWeb facilitates multi-stakeholder prioritization of research gaps. • We provide recommendations for future versions and applications of CEAWeb

Analysis of the efficiency of the Iberian power futures market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Capitan Herraiz, Alvaro; Rodriguez Monroy, Carlos

2009-01-01

Market efficiency is analysed for the Iberian Power Futures Market and other European Power Markets, as well as other fuel markets through evaluation of ex-post Forward Risk Premium. The equilibrium price from compulsory call auctions for distribution companies within the framework of the Iberian Power Futures Market is not optimal for remuneration purposes as it seems to be slightly upward biased. In the period considered (August 2006-July 2008), monthly futures contracts behave similarly to quarterly contracts. Average risk premia have been positive in power and natural gas markets but negative in oil and coal markets. Different hypotheses are tested regarding increasing volatility with maturity and regarding Forward Risk Premium variations (decreasing with variance of spot prices during delivery period and increasing with skewness of spot prices during delivery period). Enlarged data sets are recommended for stronger test results. Energy markets tend to show limited levels of market efficiency. Regarding the emerging Iberian Power Futures Market, price efficiency is improved with market development of all the coexistent forward contracting mechanisms and with further integration of European Regional Electricity Markets. (author)

A cointegration analysis of petroleum futures prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Serletis, Apostolos (Calgary Univ., AB (Canada). Dept. of Economics)

1994-04-01

This paper presents evidence concerning the number of common stochastic trends in a system of three petroleum futures prices (crude oil, heating oil and unleaded gasoline) using daily data from 3 December 1984 to 30 April 1993. Johansen's maximum likelihood approach for estimating long-run relations in multivariate vector autoregressive models is used. The results indicate the presence of only one common trend. (author)

Future neutrino experiments

CERN Document Server

Di Lella, L

2001-01-01

Future experiments to search for neutrino oscillations using neutrinos from the Sun, from reactors and accelerators are reviewed. Possible long-term developments based on neutrino factories are also described. (29 refs).

Multi-state system in a fault tree analysis of a nuclear based thermochemical hydrogen plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Y.

2008-01-01

Nuclear-based hydrogen generation is a promising way to supply hydrogen for this large market in the future. This thesis focuses on one of the most promising methods, a thermochemical Cu-Cl cycle, which is currently under development by UOIT, Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL) and the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). The safety issues of the Cu-Cl cycle are addressed in this thesis. An investigation of major accident scenarios shows that potential tragedies can be avoided with effective risk analysis and safety management programs. As a powerful and systematic tool, fault tree analysis (FTA) is adapted to the particular needs of the Cu-Cl system. This thesis develops a new method that combines FTA with a reliability analysis tool, multi-state system (MSS), to improve the accuracy of FTA and also improve system reliability. (author)

The Future of Home Health Care

Science.gov (United States)

Landers, Steven; Madigan, Elizabeth; Leff, Bruce; Rosati, Robert J.; McCann, Barbara A.; Hornbake, Rodney; MacMillan, Richard; Jones, Kate; Bowles, Kathryn; Dowding, Dawn; Lee, Teresa; Moorhead, Tracey; Rodriguez, Sally; Breese, Erica

2016-01-01

The Future of Home Health project sought to support transformation of home health and home-based care to meet the needs of patients in the evolving U.S. health care system. Interviews with key thought leaders and stakeholders resulted in key themes about the future of home health care. By synthesizing this qualitative research, a literature review, case studies, and the themes from a 2014 Institute of Medicine and National Research Council workshop on “The Future of Home Health Care,” the authors articulate a vision for home-based care and recommend a bold framework for the Medicare-certified home health agency of the future. The authors also identify challenges and recommendations for achievement of this framework. PMID:27746670

The analysis of return on speculative trading with futures contracts of agriculture commodities in the context of the currency risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oldřich Šoba

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The paper is focused on analysis of return on speculative operations with futures contracts from the view of participators not undertaking and undertaking the currency risk. The currency risk is determined by unexpected change of relevant exchange rate (currency denomination of futures contracts / domestic currency of participator. The paper analyses the basic factors influencing the profitability of these operations such as relative change of futures contract value, leverage incidence and relative change of relevant exchange rate. The paper is focused on futures contracts of the world most important agricultural commodities. The conclusion of the paper for participators not undertaking the currency risk is following: The relative change of futures contract is main factor for the calculation of return on speculative operation. This change is multiplied by leverage incidence finally. The conclusion of the paper for participators undertaking the currency risk is following: The relative change of relevant exchange rate is not usually relevant for the calculation of return on speculative operation. Main factor is the relative change of futures contract because this change is multiplied by leverage incidence finally but the relative change of relevant exchange rate isn’t.Neverthless the conclusions of this paper are not valid only for futures contracts of agricultural commodities but generally also for other commodity futures contracts and futures contracts where underlying assets are not commodities but for example financial assets.

Analysis of concept and application or Risk-Informed Performed-Based Regulation (RI-PBR)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, W. S.; Sung, K. Y.; Lee, C. J.; Kim, H. J.

2002-01-01

For improving regulation of nuclear power plants, the USNRC is adopting the Risk-Informed Performance-Based Regulation (RI-PBR) as an alternative, in parallel with implementing current deterministic regulation. This paper introduces a research plan for 'Institutionalization of RI-PBR' that is being conducted by KINS as a national project for evaluating feasibility for application of the alternative to Korean regulation system. Analysis of regulation characteristics, case study and experience on RI-PBR were presented as interim research results. In addition, the future plan of development of RI-PBR concept as understandable to the public and evaluation of level of techniques needed for implementation of RI-PBR was introduced

Robust linear discriminant analysis with distance based estimators

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Yai-Fung; Yahaya, Sharipah Soaad Syed; Ali, Hazlina

2017-11-01

Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) is one of the supervised classification techniques concerning relationship between a categorical variable and a set of continuous variables. The main objective of LDA is to create a function to distinguish between populations and allocating future observations to previously defined populations. Under the assumptions of normality and homoscedasticity, the LDA yields optimal linear discriminant rule (LDR) between two or more groups. However, the optimality of LDA highly relies on the sample mean and pooled sample covariance matrix which are known to be sensitive to outliers. To alleviate these conflicts, a new robust LDA using distance based estimators known as minimum variance vector (MVV) has been proposed in this study. The MVV estimators were used to substitute the classical sample mean and classical sample covariance to form a robust linear discriminant rule (RLDR). Simulation and real data study were conducted to examine on the performance of the proposed RLDR measured in terms of misclassification error rates. The computational result showed that the proposed RLDR is better than the classical LDR and was comparable with the existing robust LDR.

Reliability analysis of software based safety functions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pulkkinen, U.

1993-05-01

The methods applicable in the reliability analysis of software based safety functions are described in the report. Although the safety functions also include other components, the main emphasis in the report is on the reliability analysis of software. The check list type qualitative reliability analysis methods, such as failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), are described, as well as the software fault tree analysis. The safety analysis based on the Petri nets is discussed. The most essential concepts and models of quantitative software reliability analysis are described. The most common software metrics and their combined use with software reliability models are discussed. The application of software reliability models in PSA is evaluated; it is observed that the recent software reliability models do not produce the estimates needed in PSA directly. As a result from the study some recommendations and conclusions are drawn. The need of formal methods in the analysis and development of software based systems, the applicability of qualitative reliability engineering methods in connection to PSA and the need to make more precise the requirements for software based systems and their analyses in the regulatory guides should be mentioned. (orig.). (46 refs., 13 figs., 1 tab.)

Analysis of the Economic Potential for a Mercosur Rice Futures Market

OpenAIRE

Waldemar Antonio da Rocha de Souza; João Gomes Martines-Filho; Claudio Zancan; Antonio Carlos Silva Costa; Andreza Galindo Alves de Queiróz

2015-01-01

World rice production reached 488.4 thousand tons, in 2012. Asian countries are the world’s largest rice producers, followed by Latinamerica, particularly Brazil, where rice is a basic food item. In spite of the clear economic benefits bestowed by commodity futures markets, neither Asia nor Mercosur have implemented a regional rice futures market. In sum, we propose to investigate the feasibility of a Brazilian rice futures contract to serve the Mercosur region by estimating Me...

Examination of the Cost-of-Carry Formula for Futures Contracts on WIG20. Wavelet and Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Bruzda, Joanna

The instantaneous and non-instantaneous dependences between spot and futures index prices has been subject of numerous empirical investigations. The theoretical background of these studies is the cost-ofcarry model introduced by [15]. The cost-of-carry model is an arbitrage relationship based on comparison between two alternative methods of acquiring an asset at some future date. In the first method an asset is purchased now and held until this future date. In the second case a futures contract with maturity on the required date is bought. The present value of the futures contract is invested at the risk free interest rate until delivery of the underlying asset at the maturity date. Arbitrage should ensure that the difference between the current asset price and the futures contract price is the cost of carrying the asset, which involves dividend yields and interest rates. The cost-of-carry formula gives the fair price of the futures contract: F_{t,T} = S_t e^{left( {r_t - d_t } right)left( {T - t} right)} where St is the security index price at time t, F t,T is the index futures price at time t with maturity T, r t is the risk free interest rate, d t is the dividend yield on the security index, and (T — t) is the time to maturity of the futures contract. Taking logarithms of both sides of equation (1) we get: f_{t,T} = s_t + left( {r_t - d_t } right)left( {T - t} right)

As we fall asleep we forget about the future: A quantitative linguistic analysis of mentation reports from hypnagogia.

Science.gov (United States)

Speth, Jana; Schloerscheidt, Astrid M; Speth, Clemens

2016-10-01

We present a quantitative study of mental time travel to the past and future in sleep onset hypnagogia. Three independent, blind judges analysed a total of 150 mentation reports from different intervals prior to and after sleep onset. The linguistic tool for the mentation report analysis grounds on established grammatical and cognitive-semantic theories, and proof of concept has been provided in previous studies. The current results indicate that memory for the future, but not for the past, decreases in sleep onset - thereby supporting preliminary physiological evidence at the level of brain function. While recent memory research emphasizes similarities in the cognitive and physiological processes of mental time travel to the past and future, the current study explores a state of consciousness which may serve to dissociate between the two. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Forming Future Teachers’ Aesthetic Culture in Foreign Educational Practice

OpenAIRE

Sotska Galyna

2016-01-01

The article deals with a theoretical analysis of foreign educational experience in solving scientific problems of forming future teachers’ aesthetic culture. Given the current socio-cultural situation, it has been noted that a teacher who developed his/her aesthetic culture can make a direct contribution to the social and cultural challenges of a changing world. Based on the study of scientific and pedagogical literature, normative and legal support and the content of practical courses, the a...

Oil futures and spot markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samii, M.V.

1992-01-01

In the last decade, the oil futures market has risen to prominence and has become a major factor in influencing oil market psychology and the crude oil market. On a normal day, over 92 thousand contracts, the equivalent of 92 million barrels per day, change hands on the New York Mercantile Exchange, NYMEX. This market has provided a vehicle for hedging against risk. At the same time, it has also created opportunities for speculation. Those who previously were unable to participate in oil market transactions can now become involved through the futures market. The large number of participants in the future market and the availability of information has made this market more efficient and transparent, relative to the crude oil market. While there has been considerable in-depth analysis of other future markets, relatively little theoretical attention has focused on that of oil. This paper looks at the following issues. First, what is the relationship between futures and spot oil prices? And secondly, are futures prices a good predictor of spot crude prices in the future? (author)

THE MODEL OF TEACHING FUTURE PHILOLOGISTS DISCUSSION IN ENGLISH BASED ON PROBLEMATIC SITUATIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ірина Зайцева

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the model of teaching 1-st year students of foreign languages’ faculties discussion based on problematic situations and the ways of implementing such a model in the teaching process at the English language classes. The author defines and describes principles and stages of teaching discussion, hours for students’ class and individual work (autonomous learning, techniques and methods of teaching. Such notions as “model”, “communicative-discussion skills” and “method of teaching” have been defined. The gradual implementation of the model of learning process in terms of credit-modular system of training is described. The purpose, object and subjects of study that are important for creating a model of teaching discussion to future philologists based on problematic situations have been singled out.

Automated X-ray image analysis for cargo security: Critical review and future promise.

Science.gov (United States)

Rogers, Thomas W; Jaccard, Nicolas; Morton, Edward J; Griffin, Lewis D

2017-01-01

We review the relatively immature field of automated image analysis for X-ray cargo imagery. There is increasing demand for automated analysis methods that can assist in the inspection and selection of containers, due to the ever-growing volumes of traded cargo and the increasing concerns that customs- and security-related threats are being smuggled across borders by organised crime and terrorist networks. We split the field into the classical pipeline of image preprocessing and image understanding. Preprocessing includes: image manipulation; quality improvement; Threat Image Projection (TIP); and material discrimination and segmentation. Image understanding includes: Automated Threat Detection (ATD); and Automated Contents Verification (ACV). We identify several gaps in the literature that need to be addressed and propose ideas for future research. Where the current literature is sparse we borrow from the single-view, multi-view, and CT X-ray baggage domains, which have some characteristics in common with X-ray cargo.

Renewable Electricity Futures Study Executive Summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sandor, Debra [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wiser, Ryan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Schneider, Thomas [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2012-12-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures Study (RE Futures) provides an analysis of the grid integration opportunities, challenges, and implications of high levels of renewable electricity generation for the U.S. electric system. The study is not a market or policy assessment. Rather, RE Futures examines renewable energy resources and many technical issues related to the operability of the U.S. electricity grid, and provides initial answers to important questions about the integration of high penetrations of renewable electricity technologies from a national perspective. RE Futures results indicate that a future U.S. electricity system that is largely powered by renewable sources is possible and that further work is warranted to investigate this clean generation pathway.

Groundwater remediation from the past to the future: A bibliometric analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Shu; Mao, Guozhu; Crittenden, John; Liu, Xi; Du, Huibin

2017-08-01

Groundwater is an important component of terrestrial ecosystems and plays a role in geochemical cycling. Groundwater is also used for agricultural irrigation and for the domestic supply of drinking water in most nations. However, groundwater contamination has led to many research efforts on groundwater remediation technologies and strategies. This study evaluated a total of 5486 groundwater remediation-related publications from 1995 to 2015 using bibliometric technology and social network analysis, to provide a quantitative analysis and a global view on the current research trend and future research directions. Our results underline a strong research interest and an urgent need to remediate groundwater pollution due to the increasing number of both groundwater contamination and remediation publications. In the past two decades, the United States (U.S.) published 41.1% of the papers and it was the core country of the international collaboration network, cooperating with the other 19 most productive countries. Besides the active international collaboration, the funding agencies also played positive roles to foster the science and technology publications. With respect to the analysis of the distribution of funding agencies, the National Science Foundation of China sponsored most of the groundwater remediation research. We also identified the most productive journals, Environmental Science and Technology and Journal of Contaminant Hydrology, which published 334 and 259 scientific articles (including research articles and reviews) over the past 20 years, respectively. In addition to journal publications, a patent analysis was performed to show the impact of intellectual property protection on journal publications. Three major remediation technologies, including chemical oxidation, biodegradation and adsorption, have received increasing interest in both journal publication and patent development. Our results provide a valuable reference and global overview to identify

Extending helicopter operations to meet future integrated transportation needs.

Science.gov (United States)

Stanton, Neville A; Plant, Katherine L; Roberts, Aaron P; Harvey, Catherine; Thomas, T Glyn

2016-03-01

Helicopters have the potential to be an integral part of the future transport system. They offer a means of rapid transit in an overly populated transport environment. However, one of the biggest limitations on rotary wing flight is their inability to fly in degraded visual conditions in the critical phases of approach and landing. This paper presents a study that developed and evaluated a Head up Display (HUD) to assist rotary wing pilots by extending landing to degraded visual conditions. The HUD was developed with the assistance of the Cognitive Work Analysis method as an approach for analysing the cognitive work of landing the helicopter. The HUD was tested in a fixed based flight simulator with qualified helicopter pilots. A qualitative analysis to assess situation awareness and workload found that the HUD enabled safe landing in degraded conditions whilst simultaneously enhancing situation awareness and reducing workload. Continued development in this area has the potential to extend the operational capability of helicopters in the future. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Anticipating future innovation pathways through large data analysis

CERN Document Server

Chiavetta, Denise; Porter, Alan; Saritas, Ozcan

2016-01-01

This book aims to identify promising future developmental opportunities and applications for Tech Mining. Specifically, the enclosed contributions will pursue three converging themes: The increasing availability of electronic text data resources relating to Science, Technology & Innovation (ST&I) The multiple methods that are able to treat this data effectively and incorporate means to tap into human expertise and interests Translating those analyses to provide useful intelligence on likely future developments of particular emerging S&T targets. Tech Mining can be defined as text analyses of ST&I information resources to generate Competitive Technical Intelligence (CTI). It combines bibliometrics and advanced text analytic, drawing on specialized knowledge pertaining to ST&I. Tech Mining may also be viewed as a special form of “Big Data” analytics because it searches on a target emerging technology (or key organization) of interest in global databases. One then downloads, typically, th...

Application of Quantum Dots-Based Biotechnology in Cancer Diagnosis: Current Status and Future Perspectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chun-Wei Peng

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The semiconductor nanocrystal quantum dots (QDs have excellent photo-physical properties, and the QDs-based probes have achieved encouraging developments in cellular and in vivo molecular imaging. More and more researches showed that QDs-based technology may become a promising approach in cancer research. In this review, we focus on recent application of QDs in cancer diagnosis and treatment, including early detection of primary tumor such as ovarian cancer, breast cancer, prostate cancer and pancreatic cancer, as well as regional lymph nodes and distant metastases. With the development of QDs synthesis and modification, the effect of QDs on tumor metastasis investigation will become more and more important in the future.

A Priority-Based View of Future Challenges in International Nuclear Safeguards.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Matteucci, Kayla [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-06-01

The international nuclear safeguards community is faced with a host of challenges in the coming years, many of which have been outlined but have not been described in terms of their urgency. Literature regarding safeguards challenges is either broad and devoid of any reference to prioritization or tailored to a specific problem and removed from the overall goals of the safeguards community. For example, developing new methods of environmental sampling, improving containment and surveillance (C/S) technologies to increase efficiency and decrease inspection time, advancing nuclear material accountancy (NMA) techniques, and planning safeguards approaches for new types of nuclear facilities are all important. They have not, however, been distinctly prioritized at a high level within the safeguards community. Based on a review of existing literature and interviews with experts on these upcoming challenges, this paper offers a high-level summary of present and future priorities in safeguards, with attention both to what is feasible and to what is most imperative. In doing so, the paper addresses the potential repercussions for failing to prioritize, with a focus on the risk of diversion of nuclear material. Within the context of shifts in the American political landscape, and keeping in mind that nonproliferation issues may take a backseat to others in the near future, a prioritized view of safeguards objectives will be vital. In the interest of expanding upon this work, the paper offers several potential conceptual models for prioritization which can be explored in greater depth upon further research.

The Future of Gero-Oncology Nursing.

Science.gov (United States)

Kagan, Sarah H

2016-02-01

To project the future of gero-oncology nursing as a distinct specialty, framed between analysis of current challenges and explication of prospective solutions. Peer-reviewed literature, policy directives, web-based resources, and author expertise. Oncology nursing faces several challenges in meeting the needs of older people living with cancer. Realigning cancer nursing education, practice, and research to match demographic and epidemiological realities mandates redesign. Viewing geriatric oncology as an optional sub-specialty limits oncology nursing, where older people represent the majority of oncology patients and cancer survivors. The future of gero-oncology nursing lies in transforming oncology nursing itself. Specific goals to achieve transformation of oncology nursing into gero-oncology nursing include assuring integrated foundational aging and cancer content across entry-level nursing curricula; assuring a gero-competent oncology nursing workforce with integrated continuing education; developing gero-oncology nurse specialists in advanced practice roles; and cultivating nurse leadership in geriatric oncology program development and administration along with expanding the scope and sophistication of gero-oncology nursing science. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

Science.gov (United States)

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

2016-04-01

In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

A DNA Structure-Based Bionic Wavelet Transform and Its Application to DNA Sequence Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Chen

2003-01-01

Full Text Available DNA sequence analysis is of great significance for increasing our understanding of genomic functions. An important task facing us is the exploration of hidden structural information stored in the DNA sequence. This paper introduces a DNA structure-based adaptive wavelet transform (WT – the bionic wavelet transform (BWT – for DNA sequence analysis. The symbolic DNA sequence can be separated into four channels of indicator sequences. An adaptive symbol-to-number mapping, determined from the structural feature of the DNA sequence, was introduced into WT. It can adjust the weight value of each channel to maximise the useful energy distribution of the whole BWT output. The performance of the proposed BWT was examined by analysing synthetic and real DNA sequences. Results show that BWT performs better than traditional WT in presenting greater energy distribution. This new BWT method should be useful for the detection of the latent structural features in future DNA sequence analysis.

Past, present, future of neutron activation analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guinn, V.P.

1991-01-01

Although the method of NAA was originated in 1936, use of the method was minimal for about the next ten years - due to the lack of a high-flux source of thermal neutrons. When such a copious source of neutrons - the nuclear reactor - became available, commencing in 1945, the power of the method to determine many elements, quantitatively, even though present in samples at concentrations as low as ppb, attracted many scientists. During about the next 20 years (1945-1965), NAA provided the first major results on trace elements (essential and toxic) in biomedical materials. These studies constituted the first major achievement of NAA - and such studies continue. Due to the initial lack of a high-efficiency detector of gamma radiation, work during the early part of this period had to be carried out by tedious radiochemical separations. Starting in the early 1950's, with the advent of the NaI(Tl) scintillation detector and multichannel pulse-height analyzers, the purely-instrumental form of the method (INAA) was born, and research and applications mushroomed. In the 1960s, two additional important applications of NAA were its vital use in the semiconductor industry and in the analysis of the lunar rocks. The INAA method in this period was greatly advanced by the availability of high-resolution germanium detectors. Applications in environmental studies, archaeology, and forensic chemistry were also of note. INAA is now a mature method, but still improving. As for the future, what is still needed are less expensive high-flux neutron sources, simple automated systems, gamma-ray detectors of even better resolution, and faster electronics. The field of NAA has been, and is, blessed by a large number of outstanding scientists, world-wide, all intrigued by the atomic nucleus and radioactive decay

A web-based tool to engage stakeholders in informing research planning for future decisions on emerging materials

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Powers, Christina M., E-mail: powers.christina@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 (United States); Grieger, Khara D., E-mail: kgrieger@rti.org [RTI International, 3040 Cornwallis Rd., Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (United States); Hendren, Christine Ogilvie, E-mail: chendren@duke.edu [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Meacham, Connie A., E-mail: meacham.connie@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 (United States); Gurevich, Gerald, E-mail: gurevich.gerald@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 (United States); Lassiter, Meredith Gooding, E-mail: lassiter.meredith@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 (United States); Money, Eric S., E-mail: emoney@rti.org [RTI International, 3040 Cornwallis Rd., Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (United States); Lloyd, Jennifer M., E-mail: jml@rti.org [RTI International, 3040 Cornwallis Rd., Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (United States); Beaulieu, Stephen M., E-mail: steveb@rti.org [RTI International, 3040 Cornwallis Rd., Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (United States)

2014-02-01

Prioritizing and assessing risks associated with chemicals, industrial materials, or emerging technologies is a complex problem that benefits from the involvement of multiple stakeholder groups. For example, in the case of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs), scientific uncertainties exist that hamper environmental, health, and safety (EHS) assessments. Therefore, alternative approaches to standard EHS assessment methods have gained increased attention. The objective of this paper is to describe the application of a web-based, interactive decision support tool developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) in a pilot study on ENMs. The piloted tool implements U.S. EPA's comprehensive environmental assessment (CEA) approach to prioritize research gaps. When pursued, such research priorities can result in data that subsequently improve the scientific robustness of risk assessments and inform future risk management decisions. Pilot results suggest that the tool was useful in facilitating multi-stakeholder prioritization of research gaps. Results also provide potential improvements for subsequent applications. The outcomes of future CEAWeb applications with larger stakeholder groups may inform the development of funding opportunities for emerging materials across the scientific community (e.g., National Science Foundation Science to Achieve Results [STAR] grants, National Institutes of Health Requests for Proposals). - Highlights: • A web-based, interactive decision support tool was piloted for emerging materials. • The tool (CEAWeb) was based on an established approach to prioritize research gaps. • CEAWeb facilitates multi-stakeholder prioritization of research gaps. • We provide recommendations for future versions and applications of CEAWeb.

Evidence of efficiency in United States futures oil prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duchock, C.J. Jr.

1991-01-01

The purpose of this study was to use the Perpetual Contract Data for West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures contracts in studies of the US crude oil futures market prices to determine whether the market was efficient. Analysis was done to determine whether the Perpetual Contract Data exhibited the characteristics of a random walk. Daily data on US crude oil perpetual futures contract prices were analyzed using standard statistical techniques and spectral analysis techniques. Spectral analysis was used on the first differences of daily data to determine whether the price change data contained cyclicality. Results showed no significant cycles or autocorrelation in the data, concluding there was evidence to indicate the Perpetual Contract Data for futures prices is a random walk. This is similar to the conclusion by Howard (1988) that spot West Texas Intermediate Crude prices follow a random walk. Thus, both the futures and spot markets efficiently capture current information in prices

Educational Psychology's Past and Future Contributions to the Science of Learning, Science of Instruction, and Science of Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Mayer, Richard E.

2018-01-01

Patricia Alexander (2018) provides a thought-provoking analysis of the past and future of educational psychology. Based on the themes in Alexander's paper, the present paper explores the past and future of educational psychology's contributions to: (a) the science of learning, corresponding to Alexander's theme of "a focus on learning as a…

Evidence based practice readiness: A concept analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Schaefer, Jessica D; Welton, John M

2018-01-15

To analyse and define the concept "evidence based practice readiness" in nurses. Evidence based practice readiness is a term commonly used in health literature, but without a clear understanding of what readiness means. Concept analysis is needed to define the meaning of evidence based practice readiness. A concept analysis was conducted using Walker and Avant's method to clarify the defining attributes of evidence based practice readiness as well as antecedents and consequences. A Boolean search of PubMed and Cumulative Index for Nursing and Allied Health Literature was conducted and limited to those published after the year 2000. Eleven articles met the inclusion criteria for this analysis. Evidence based practice readiness incorporates personal and organisational readiness. Antecedents include the ability to recognize the need for evidence based practice, ability to access and interpret evidence based practice, and a supportive environment. The concept analysis demonstrates the complexity of the concept and its implications for nursing practice. The four pillars of evidence based practice readiness: nursing, training, equipping and leadership support are necessary to achieve evidence based practice readiness. Nurse managers are in the position to address all elements of evidence based practice readiness. Creating an environment that fosters evidence based practice can improve patient outcomes, decreased health care cost, increase nurses' job satisfaction and decrease nursing turnover. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Executive Summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mai, T.; Sandor, D.; Wiser, R.; Schneider, T.

2012-12-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

Design to learn: customizing services when the future matters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dan Ariely

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Internet-based customization tools can be used to design service encounters that maximize customers' utility in the present or explore their tastes to provide more value in the future, where these two goals conflict with each other. Maximizing expected customer satisfaction in the present leads to slow rates of learning that may limit the ability to provide quality in the future. An emphasis on learning can lead to unsatisfied customers that will not only forego purchasing in the current period, but, more seriously, never return if they lose trust in the service provider's ability to meet their needs. This paper describes service design policies that balance the objectives of learning and selling by characterizing customer lifetime value as a function of knowledge. The analysis of the customization problem as a dynamic program yields three results. The first result is the characterization of customization policies that quantify the value of knowledge so as to adequately balance the expected revenue of present and future interactions. The second result is an analysis of the impact of operational decisions on loyalty, learning, and profitability over time. Finally, the quantification of the value of knowing the customer provides a connection between customer acquisition and retention policies, thus enhancing the current understanding of the mechanisms connecting service customization, value creation, and customer lifetime value.

Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pelt, van S.C.; Beersma, J.J.; Buishand, T.A.; Hurk, van den B.J.J.M.; Kabat, P.

2012-01-01

Probability estimates of the future change of extreme precipitation events are usually based on a limited number of available global climate model (GCM) or regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Since floods are related to heavy precipitation events, this restricts the assessment of flood risks.

Meta-Analysis on Pharmacogenetics of Platinum-Based Chemotherapy in Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Patients

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Ji-Ye; Huang, Qiong; Zhao, Ying-Chun; Zhou, Hong-Hao; Liu, Zhao-Qian

2012-01-01

Aim To determine the pharmacogenetics of platinum-based chemotherapy in Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) patients. Methods Publications were selected from PubMed, Cochrane Library and ISI Web of Knowledge. A meta-analysis was conducted to determine the association between genetic polymorphisms and platinum-based chemotherapy by checking odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Results Data were extracted from 24 publications, which included 11 polymorphisms in 8 genes for meta-analysis. MDR1 C3435T (OR = 1.97, 95% CI: 1.11–3.50, P = 0.02), G2677A/T (OR = 2.61, 95% CI: 1.44–4.74, P = 0.002) and GSTP1 A313G (OR = 0.32, 95% CI: 0.17–0.58, P = 0.0002) were significantly correlated with platinum-based chemotherapy in Asian NSCLC patients. Conclusion Attention should be paid to MDR1 C3435T, G2677A/T and GSTP1 A313G for personalized chemotherapy treatment for NSCLC patients in Asian population in the future. PMID:22761669

Analysis and mapping of present and future drought conditions over Greek areas with different climate conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios; Weiler, Markus; Matzarakis, Andreas

2018-01-01

Estimation of drought in a certain temporal and spatial scale is crucial in climate change studies. The current study targets on three agricultural areas widespread in Greece, Ardas River Basin in Northeastern Greece, Sperchios River Basin in Central Greece, and Geropotamos River Basin in Crete Island in South Greece that are characterized by diverse climates as they are located in various regions. The objective is to assess the spatiotemporal variation of drought conditions prevailing in these areas. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to identify and assess the present and future drought conditions. Future simulated data were derived from a number of Regional Climatic Models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES European Project. The analysis was performed for the future periods of 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, implementing A1B and B1 scenarios. The spatial analysis of the drought conditions was performed using a combined downscaling technique and the Ordinary Kriging. The Mann-Kendall test was implemented for trend investigation. During both periods and scenarios, drought conditions will tend to be more severe in the upcoming years. The decrease of the SPI values in the Sperchios River Basin is expected to be the strongest, as it is the only study area that will show a negative balance (in SPI values), regarding the drought conditions. For the Ardas and the Geropotamos River Basins, a great increase of the drought conditions will occur during the 2021-2050 period, while for 2071-2100 period, the decrease will continue but it will be tempered. Nevertheless, the situation in all study areas according to the SPI classification is characterized as "Near-normal", in terms of drought conditions.

Specifying the Concept of Future Generations for Addressing Issues Related to High-Level Radioactive Waste.

Science.gov (United States)

Kermisch, Celine

2016-12-01

The nuclear community frequently refers to the concept of "future generations" when discussing the management of high-level radioactive waste. However, this notion is generally not defined. In this context, we have to assume a wide definition of the concept of future generations, conceived as people who will live after the contemporary people are dead. This definition embraces thus each generation following ours, without any restriction in time. The aim of this paper is to show that, in the debate about nuclear waste, this broad notion should be further specified and to clarify the related implications for nuclear waste management policies. Therefore, we provide an ethical analysis of different management strategies for high-level waste in the light of two principles, protection of future generations-based on safety and security-and respect for their choice. This analysis shows that high-level waste management options have different ethical impacts across future generations, depending on whether the memory of the waste and its location is lost, or not. We suggest taking this distinction into account by introducing the notions of "close future generations" and "remote future generations", which has important implications on nuclear waste management policies insofar as it stresses that a retrievable disposal has fewer benefits than usually assumed.

Nearly Finished Genomes Produced Using Gel Microdroplet Culturing (Seventh Annual Sequencing, Finishing, Analysis in the Future (SFAF) Meeting 2012)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fitzsimmons, Michael

2012-06-01

Michael Fitzsimmons from Los Alamos National Laboratory gives a talk titled "Nearly Finished Genomes Produced Using Gel Microdroplet Culturing" at the 7th Annual Sequencing, Finishing, Analysis in the Future (SFAF) Meeting held in June, 2012 in Santa Fe, NM.

Toward decentralized analysis of mercury (II) in real samples. A critical review on nanotechnology-based methodologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Botasini, Santiago; Heijo, Gonzalo; Méndez, Eduardo

2013-01-01

Graphical abstract: -- Highlights: •Several methods based on nanotechnology achieve limit of detections in the pM and nM ranges for mercury (II) analysis. •Most of these methods are validated in filtered water samples and/or spiked samples. •Thiols in real samples constitute an actual competence for any sensor based on the binding of mercury (II) ions. •Future research should include the study of matrix interferences including thiols and dissolved organic matter. -- Abstract: In recent years, it has increased the number of works focused on the development of novel nanoparticle-based sensors for mercury detection, mainly motivated by the need of low cost portable devices capable of giving fast and reliable analytical response, thus contributing to the analytical decentralization. Methodologies employing colorimetric, fluorometric, magnetic, and electrochemical output signals allowed reaching detection limits within the pM and nM ranges. Most of these developments proved their suitability in detecting and quantifying mercury (II) ions in synthetic solutions or spiked water samples. However, the state of art in these technologies is still behind the standard methods of mercury quantification, such as cold vapor atomic absorption spectrometry and inductively coupled plasma techniques, in terms of reliability and sensitivity. This is mainly because the response of nanoparticle-based sensors is highly affected by the sample matrix. The developed analytical nanosystems may fail in real samples because of the negative incidence of the ionic strength and the presence of exchangeable ligands. The aim of this review is to critically consider the recently published innovations in this area, and highlight the needs to include more realistic assays in future research in order to make these advances suitable for on-site analysis

Mindfulness-based interventions for binge eating: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Godfrey, Kathryn M; Gallo, Linda C; Afari, Niloofar

2015-04-01

Mindfulness-based interventions are increasingly used to treat binge eating. The effects of these interventions have not been reviewed comprehensively. This systematic review and meta-analysis sought to summarize the literature on mindfulness-based interventions and determine their impact on binge eating behavior. PubMED, Web of Science, and PsycINFO were searched using keywords binge eating, overeating, objective bulimic episodes, acceptance and commitment therapy, dialectical behavior therapy, mindfulness, meditation, mindful eating. Of 151 records screened, 19 studies met inclusion criteria. Most studies showed effects of large magnitude. Results of random effects meta-analyses supported large or medium-large effects of these interventions on binge eating (within-group random effects mean Hedge's g = -1.12, 95 % CI -1.67, -0.80, k = 18; between-group mean Hedge's g = -0.70, 95 % CI -1.16, -0.24, k = 7). However, there was high statistical heterogeneity among the studies (within-group I(2) = 93 %; between-group I(2) = 90 %). Limitations and future research directions are discussed.

Analysis of the Dynamic Evolutionary Behavior of American Heating Oil Spot and Futures Price Fluctuation Networks