WorldWideScience

Sample records for baffin island inferred

  1. Paleoenvironmental inference models from sediment diatom assemblages in Baffin Island lakes (Nunavut, Canada) and reconstruction of summer water temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joynt, E. H. III; Wolfe, A. P. [Colorado Univ., Inst. of Arctic and Alpine Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2001-06-01

    Lake sediments are attractive repositories for paleoclimate proxy data because they are temporally continuous, undisturbed and datable. It is particularly true of lakes which are ubiquitous throughout the Arctic regions, enabling dense spatial coverage of sampling sites. In more recent times diatoms have been applied to a a variety of paleoenvironmental questions. However, these studies have been of limited usefulness because they lack a regional training set that would facilitate making quantitative paleoenvironmental inferences. This article provides this inferential tool, together with an example of its application. Conductivity, pH, summer lake water temperature, and mean annual air temperature have been identified as the significant controls over diatom assemblages from the surface sediments of 61 lakes on Baffin Island. Using weighted-averaging regression and calibration, predictive models for these parameters have been developed. Results show that the summer lake water temperature model provides realistic reconstructions when compared with other paleoenvironmental records. Over the past 5000 years the amplitude of reconstructed summer lake water temperature was found to be on the order of 4 degrees C, expressed primarily as progressive neoglacial cooling culminating in the Little Ice Age. Diatom-inferred summer water temperatures have increased by about 2 degrees C in the past 150 years, which is also in agreement with independent paleoclimatic reconstructions. The data obtained in this study complements similar efforts from the western Canadian Arctic and the northern reaches of Scandinavia, however, this is the first training set developed for lakes situated entirely north of the tree line. As such, it extends the applicability of diatoms for paleotemperature reconstructions well into the Arctic tundra biome. 45 refs., 1 tab., 10 figs., 1 appendix.

  2. The Thermal Evolution of the Southeast Baffin Island Continental Margin: An Integrated Apatite Fission Track and Apatite (U-Th)/He Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jess, S.; Stephenson, R.; Brown, R. W.

    2017-12-01

    The elevated continental margins of the North Atlantic continue to be a focus of considerable geological and geomorphological debate, as the timing of major tectonic events and the age of topographic relief remain controversial. The West Greenland margin, on the eastern flank of Baffin Bay, is believed by some authors to have experienced tectonic rejuvenation and uplift during the Neogene. However, the opposing flank, Baffin Island, is considered to have experienced a protracted erosional regime with little tectonic activity since the Cretaceous. This work examines the thermal evolution of the Cumberland Peninsula, SE Baffin Island, using published apatite fission track (AFT) data with the addition of 103 apatite (U-Th)/He (AHe) ages. This expansion of available thermochronological data introduces a higher resolution of thermal modelling, whilst the application of the newly developed `Broken Crystals' technique provides a greater number of thermal constraints for an area dominated by AHe age dispersion. Results of joint thermal modelling of the AFT and AHe data exhibit two significant periods of cooling across the Cumberland Peninsula: Devonian/Carboniferous to the Triassic and Late Cretaceous to present. The earliest phase of cooling is interpreted as the result of major fluvial systems present throughout the Paleozoic that flowed across the Canadian Shield to basins in the north and south. The later stage of cooling is believed to result from rift controlled fluvial systems that flowed into Baffin Bay during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic during the early stages and culmination of rifting along the Labrador-Baffin margins. Glaciation in the Late Cenozoic has likely overprinted these later river systems creating a complex fjordal distribution that has shaped the modern elevated topography. This work demonstrates how surface processes, and not tectonism, can explain the formation of elevated continental margins and that recent methodological developments in the field of

  3. One Isotope, Two Tales: using plant and cosmogenic 14C to constrain Holocene glacier activity on Baffin Island.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendleton, S.; Miller, G. H.; Lifton, N. A.; Young, N. E.

    2017-12-01

    As the cryosphere continues to undergo rapid and accelerating change, it is more important than ever to understand past glacier activity to predict the future of the cryosphere. However, continuous Holocene glacier records are notoriously difficult to reconstruct because an advancing glacier will re-incorporate previous deposits so that moraines typically only record the farthest downvalley glacier expansion. Here we combine dates of ice margin advance from in situ dead vegetation with in situ cosmogenic 14C (in situ 14C) from preserved bedrock surfaces at the same locations to further constrain the timing of ice-free episodes during the Holocene following deglaciation on southern Baffin Island. Radiocarbon ages from recently exposed in situ plants suggest that ice last advanced over sample locations at 9.4, 9.2, 9.0, and 3.7 ka and that they remained ice covered until modern times. Associated in situ 14C inventories are variable, but well above background levels, suggesting some amount of Holocene in situ 14C production. Using plant 14C ages representing the beginning of ice coverage and in situ 14C inventories representative of exposure prior to ice coverage, a simple model of cosmogenic in situ 14C production (accounting for muon production through ice) provides constraints timing and duration of ice-free times at sample locations prior to their most recent burial. Using conservative Holocene ice thicknesses, the locations buried at 9.4, 9.2, and 9.0 ka require, at minimum, 1000 years of pre-burial exposure to match the observed in situ 14C inventory. This suggests these locations were ice free by at least 10 ka and likely earlier. The in situ 14C inventory at the location buried at 3.7 ka limits prior exposure to 2000 years, suggesting that this location experienced more complex Holocene ice cover/burial history. These pilot data show that valuable information regarding periods of exposure is contained within in situ 14C inventories. Additional paired plant and

  4. Accelerated contributions of Canada's Baffin and Bylot Island glaciers to sea level rise over the past half century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gardner

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Canadian Arctic glaciers have recently contributed large volumes of meltwater to the world's oceans. To place recently observed glacier wastage into a historical perspective and to determine the region's longer-term (~50 years contribution to sea level, we estimate mass and volume changes for the glaciers of Baffin and Bylot Islands using digital elevation models generated from airborne and satellite stereoscopic imagery and elevation postings from repeat airborne and satellite laser altimetry. In addition, we update existing glacier mass change records from GRACE satellite gravimetry to cover the period from 2003 to 2011. Using this integrated approach, we find that the rate of mass loss from the region's glaciers increased from 11.1 ± 3.4 Gt a−1 (271 ± 84 kg m−2 a−1 for the period 1963–2006 to 23.8 ± 6.1 Gt a−1 (581 ± 149 kg m−2 a−1 for the period 2003–2011. The doubling of the rate of mass loss is attributed to higher temperatures in summer with little change in annual precipitation. Through both direct and indirect effects, changes in summer temperatures accounted for 70–98% of the variance in the rate of mass loss, to which the Barnes Ice Cap was found to be 1.7 times more sensitive than either the Penny Ice Cap or the region's glaciers as a whole. This heightened sensitivity is the result of a glacier hypsometry that is skewed to lower elevations, which are shown to have a higher mass change sensitive to temperature compared to glacier surfaces at higher elevations. Between 2003 and 2011 the glaciers of Baffin and Bylot Islands contributed 0.07 ± 0.02 mm a−1 to sea level rise accounting for 16% of the total contribution from glaciers outside of Greenland and Antarctica, a rate much higher than the longer-term average of 0.03 ± 0.01 mm a−1 (1963 to 2006.

  5. Pre-industrial and recent (1970-2010) atmospheric deposition of sulfate and mercury in snow on southern Baffin Island, Arctic Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zdanowicz, Christian; Kruemmel, Eva; Lean, David; Poulain, Alexandre; Kinnard, Christophe; Yumvihoze, Emmanuel; Chen, JiuBin; Hintelmann, Holger

    2015-03-15

    Sulfate (SO4(2-)) and mercury (Hg) are airborne pollutants transported to the Arctic where they can affect properties of the atmosphere and the health of marine or terrestrial ecosystems. Detecting trends in Arctic Hg pollution is challenging because of the short period of direct observations, particularly of actual deposition. Here, we present an updated proxy record of atmospheric SO4(2-) and a new 40-year record of total Hg (THg) and monomethyl Hg (MeHg) deposition developed from a firn core (P2010) drilled from Penny Ice Cap, Baffin Island, Canada. The updated P2010 record shows stable mean SO4(2-) levels over the past 40 years, which is inconsistent with observations of declining atmospheric SO4(2-) or snow acidity in the Arctic during the same period. A sharp THg enhancement in the P2010 core ca 1991 is tentatively attributed to the fallout from the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Hekla. Although MeHg accumulation on Penny Ice Cap had remained constant since 1970, THg accumulation increased after the 1980s. This increase is not easily explained by changes in snow accumulation, marine aerosol inputs or air mass trajectories; however, a causal link may exist with the declining sea-ice cover conditions in the Baffin Bay sector. The ratio of THg accumulation between pre-industrial times (reconstructed from archived ice cores) and the modern industrial era is estimated at between 4- and 16-fold, which is consistent with estimates from Arctic lake sediment cores. The new P2010 THg record is the first of its kind developed from the Baffin Island region of the eastern Canadian Arctic and one of very few such records presently available in the Arctic. As such, it may help to bridge the knowledge gap linking direct observation of gaseous Hg in the Arctic atmosphere and actual net deposition and accumulation in various terrestrial media. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Coastal Mapping for Baseline Geoscience Knowledge to Support Community Hazard Assessment and Sustainable Development, Eastern Baffin Island, Nunavut

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forbes, D. L.; Bell, T.; Campbell, D. C.; Cowan, B.; Deering, R. L.; Hatcher, S. V.; Hughes Clarke, J. E.; Irvine, M.; Manson, G. K.; Smith, I. R.; Edinger, E.

    2015-12-01

    Since 2012 we have carried out extensive multibeam bathymetric and backscatter surveys in coastal waters of eastern Baffin Island, supplemented by sub-bottom imaging and coring. Shore-zone surveys have been undertaken in proximity to the communities of Iqaluit and Qikiqtarjuaq, following earlier work in Clyde River. These support benthic habitat mapping, geological exploration, analysis of past and present sea-level trends, and assessment of coastal hazards relating to climate change and seabed instability. Outputs include a seamless topographic-bathymetric digital elevation model (DEM) of extensive boulder-strewn tidal flats in the large tidal-range setting at Iqaluit, supporting analysis of coastal flooding, wave run-up, and sea-ice impacts on a rapidly developing urban waterfront in the context of climate change. Seabed mapping of inner Frobisher Bay seaward of Iqaluit reveals a potential local tsunami hazard in widespread submarine slope failures, the triggers, magnitudes, and ages of which are the subject of ongoing research. In fjords of the Cumberland Peninsula, this project has mapped numerous submerged delta terraces at 19 to 45 m present water depth. These attest to an early postglacial submerged shoreline, displaced by glacial-isostatic adjustment. It rises linearly over a distance of 100 km east to west, where a submerged boulder barricade on a -16 m shoreline was discovered at a proposed port site in Broughton Channel near Qikiqtarjuaq. Palaeotopographic mapping using the multibeam data revealed an enclosed estuarine environment quite different from the present-day open passage swept by tidal currents. At Clyde River, combined seabed and onshore DEMs with geohazard mapping provided foundation data for community assessment and planning under a local knowledge co-production initiative. The geohazard work identified portions of the town-site more vulnerable to both coastal flooding and potential thaw subsidence, while the shallow delta terrace suggested a

  7. Inverted Apatite (U-Th)/He and Fission-track Dates from the Rae craton, Baffin Island, Canada and Implications for Apatite Radiation Damage-He Diffusivity Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ault, A. K.; Reiners, P. W.; Thomson, S. N.; Miller, G. H.

    2015-12-01

    Coupled apatite (U-Th)/He and fission-track (AFT) thermochronology data from the same sample can be used to decipher complex low temperature thermal histories and evaluate compatibility between these two methods. Existing apatite He damage-diffusivity models parameterize radiation damage annealing as fission-track annealing and yield inverted apatite He and AFT dates for samples with prolonged residence in the He partial retention zone. Apatite chemistry also impacts radiation damage and fission-track annealing, temperature sensitivity, and dates in both systems. We present inverted apatite He and AFT dates from the Rae craton, Baffin Island, Canada, that cannot be explained by apatite chemistry or existing damage-diffusivity and fission track models. Apatite He dates from 34 individual analyses from 6 samples range from 237 ± 44 Ma to 511 ± 25 Ma and collectively define a positive date-eU relationship. AFT dates from these same samples are 238 ± 15 Ma to 350 ± 20 Ma. These dates and associated track length data are inversely correlated and define the left segment of a boomerang diagram. Three of the six samples with 20-90 ppm eU apatite grains yield apatite He and AFT dates inverted by 300 million years. These samples have average apatite Cl chemistry of ≤0.02 wt.%, with no correlation between Cl content and Dpar. Thermal history simulations using geologic constraints, an apatite He radiation damage accumulation and annealing model, apatite He dates with the range of eU values, and AFT date and track length data, do not yield any viable time-temperature paths. Apatite He and AFT data modeled separately predict thermal histories with Paleozoic-Mesozoic peaks reheating temperatures differing by ≥15 °C. By modifying the parameter controlling damage annealing (Rmr0) from the canonical 0.83 to 0.5-0.6, forward models reproduce the apatite He date-eU correlation and AFT dates with a common thermal history. Results imply apatite radiation damage anneals at

  8. Molecules in the mud: Combining ancient DNA and lipid biomarkers to reconstruct vegetation response to climate variability during the Last Interglacial and the Holocene on Baffin Island, Arctic Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crump, S. E.; Sepúlveda, J.; Bunce, M.; Miller, G. H.

    2017-12-01

    Modern ecological studies are revealing that the "greening" of the Arctic, resulting from a poleward shift in woody vegetation ranges, is already underway. The increasing abundance of shrubs in tundra ecosystems plays an important role in the global climate system through multiple positive feedbacks, yet uncertainty in future predictions of terrestrial vegetation means that climate models are likely not capturing these feedbacks accurately. Recently developed molecular techniques for reconstructing past vegetation and climate allow for a closer look at the paleo-record in order to improve our understanding of tundra community responses to climate variability; our current research focus is to apply these tools to both Last Interglacial and Holocene warm times. Here we present initial results from a small lake on southern Baffin Island spanning the last 7.2 ka. We reconstruct climate with both bulk geochemical and biomarker proxies, primarily using biogenic silica and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) as temperature indicators. We assess shifts in plant community using multivariate analysis of sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) metabarcoding data. This combination of approaches reveals that the vegetation community has responded sensitively to early Holocene warmth, Neoglacial cooling, and possibly modern anthropogenic warming. To our knowledge, this represents the first combination of a quantitative, biomarker-based climate reconstruction with a sedaDNA-based paleoecological reconstruction, and offers a glimpse at the potential of these molecular techniques used in tandem.

  9. Episodic swell growth inferred from variable uplift of the Cape Verde hotspot islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramalho, R.; Helffrich, G.; Cosca, M.; Vance, D.; Hoffmann, D.; Schmidt, D.N.

    2010-01-01

    On the Beagle voyage, Charles Darwin first noted the creation and subsidence of ocean islands, establishing in geology's infancy that island freeboard changes with time. Hotspot ocean islands have an obvious mechanism for freeboard change through the growth of the bathymetric anomaly, or swell, on which the islands rest. Models for swell development indicate that flexural, thermal or dynamic pressure contributions, as well as spreading of melt residue from the hotspot, can all contribute to island uplift. Here we test various models for swell development using the uplift histories for the islands of the Cape Verde hotspot, derived from isotopic dating of marine terraces and subaerial to submarine lava-flow morphologies. The island uplift histories, in conjunction with inter-island spacing, uplift rate and timing differences, rule out flexural, thermal or dynamic pressure contributions. We also find that uplift cannot be reconciled with models that advocate the spreading of melt residue in swell development unless swell growth is episodic. Instead, we infer from the uplift histories that two processes have acted to raise the islands during the past 6 Myr. During an initial phase, mantle processes acted to build the swell. Subsequently, magmatic intrusions at the island edifice caused 350 m of local uplift at the scale of individual islands. Finally, swell-wide uplift contributed a further 100 m of surface rise.

  10. Tectonic Model of Bali Island Inferred from GPS Data

    OpenAIRE

    Cecep Sulaeman; Sri Hidayati; Amalfi Omang; Imam Catur Priambodo

    2018-01-01

    DOI: 10.17014/ijog.5.1.81-91Seven periods of GPS campaign have been conducted for three years since March 2013 - October 2015 on fourteen GPS sites across Bali Island. The GAMIT/GLOBK 10.6 version was used to compute data with respect for thirteen reference sites of International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) 2008 surrounding Bali. The result shows that horizontal displacement varies between 1.93 and 22.53 mm/yr dominantly northeastward. Vertical displacement ranges at -184.34 to 33.79 m...

  11. Tectonic Model of Bali Island Inferred from GPS Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecep Sulaeman

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available DOI: 10.17014/ijog.5.1.81-91Seven periods of GPS campaign have been conducted for three years since March 2013 - October 2015 on fourteen GPS sites across Bali Island. The GAMIT/GLOBK 10.6 version was used to compute data with respect for thirteen reference sites of International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF 2008 surrounding Bali. The result shows that horizontal displacement varies between 1.93 and 22.53 mm/yr dominantly northeastward. Vertical displacement ranges at -184.34 to 33.79 mm/yr. The result of modeling using Coulomb 3.3 version indicates the deformation in Bali was mostly contributed by subduction at the southern part, West and East Flores Back-Arc Thrust at the north, Lombok Strait Fault and a fault at the eastern coast of Bali with the estimation maximum magnitude of 7.1, 6.6, 6.8, 5.8, and 5.2, respectively.

  12. Early Holocene hydroclimate of Baffin Bay: Understanding the interplay between abrupt climate change events and ice sheet fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corcoran, M. C.; Thomas, E. K.; Castañeda, I. S.; Briner, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the causes of ice sheet fluctuations resulting in sea level rise is essential in today's warming climate. In high-latitude ice-sheet-proximal environments such as Baffin Bay, studying both the cause and the rate of ice sheet variability during past abrupt climate change events aids in predictions. Past climate reconstructions are used to understand ice sheet responses to changes in temperature and precipitation. The 9,300 and 8,200 yr BP events are examples of abrupt climate change events in the Baffin Bay region during which there were multiple re-advances of the Greenland and Laurentide ice sheets. High-resolution (decadal-scale) hydroclimate variability near the ice sheet margins during these abrupt climate change events is still unknown. We will generate a decadal-scale record of early Holocene temperature and precipitation using leaf wax hydrogen isotopes, δ2Hwax, from a lake sediment archive on Baffin Island, western Baffin Bay, to better understand abrupt climate change in this region. Shifts in temperature and moisture source result in changes in environmental water δ2H, which in turn is reflected in δ2Hwax, allowing for past hydroclimate to be determined from these compound-specific isotopes. The combination of terrestrial and aquatic δ2Hwax is used to determine soil evaporation and is ultimately used to reconstruct moisture variability. We will compare our results with a previous analysis of δ2Hwax and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, a temperature and pH proxy, in lake sediment from western Greenland, eastern Baffin Bay, which indicates that cool and dry climate occurred in response to freshwater forcing events in the Labrador Sea. Reconstructing and comparing records on both the western and eastern sides of Baffin Bay during the early Holocene will allow for a spatial understanding of temperature and moisture balance changes during abrupt climate events, aiding in ice sheet modeling and predictions of future sea level

  13. Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper

    2010-01-01

    Chapter 9: This contribution concerns statistical inference for parametric models used in stochastic geometry and based on quick and simple simulation free procedures as well as more comprehensive methods based on a maximum likelihood or Bayesian approach combined with markov chain Monte Carlo...... (MCMC) techniques. Due to space limitations the focus is on spatial point processes....

  14. Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper

    (This text written by Jesper Møller, Aalborg University, is submitted for the collection ‘Stochastic Geometry: Highlights, Interactions and New Perspectives', edited by Wilfrid S. Kendall and Ilya Molchanov, to be published by ClarendonPress, Oxford, and planned to appear as Section 4.1 with the ......(This text written by Jesper Møller, Aalborg University, is submitted for the collection ‘Stochastic Geometry: Highlights, Interactions and New Perspectives', edited by Wilfrid S. Kendall and Ilya Molchanov, to be published by ClarendonPress, Oxford, and planned to appear as Section 4.......1 with the title ‘Inference'.) This contribution concerns statistical inference for parametric models used in stochastic geometry and based on quick and simple simulation free procedures as well as more comprehensive methods using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Due to space limitations the focus...

  15. Magnetic and mineralogical properties of central Baffin Bay sediments since the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Q.; St-Onge, G.; Hillaire-Marcel, C.

    2011-12-01

    Magnetic and mineralogical properties of terrigenous sediments from the deep central Baffin Bay (HU2008-029-016PC - 70°46,14N/-64°65,77W - 2063 m) were analyzed as a means of linking sedimentological changes to ice-margin dynamics along the surrounding coastlines of W. Greenland, E. Baffin Island and N.E. Ellesmere Island since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). A chronology based on relative paleointensity (RPI) and secular variation (PSV) in sections where magnetism properties were suitable has been set. The age-model yields a low mean sedimentation rate varying between 4 - 8 cm/kyr along the core and illustrates a significant increase during Termination 1. Carbonate content increases drastically from 16 ka due to increasing supplies of dolomitic material from dolostone rocks outcropping in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and associated with inputs from the Innuitian Ice Sheet margin. The magnetic properties demonstrate major changes during the deglaciation and especially during Heinrich event 1 (H1), the Younger Dryas (YD) and throughout the Holocene. Very low median destructive field (MDF) of the natural remanent magnetization (NRM) values are observed during the 11.5 - 12.6 ka (YD) and 14.8 - 16 (H1) ka intervals, and are reflecting coarser magnetic grains. Similarly, the kARM/kLF grain-size ratio shows coarser magnetic grain size during the H1 and YD intervals, and finer magnetic grains during the LGM (19 - 22 ka). During the LGM, "glacial flour" formed by mechanical grinding of rocks by ice sheets released finer magnetic grains from lateral source (e.g., Greenland continental shelf). On the contrary, during the YD and H1 periods, icebergs released coarser magnetic grains from a northern source (axial source). The Holocene is marked by the highest median destructive field (MDF) and ARM20mT/ARM0mT values of the core, indicating an increased proportion of finer magnetic grains during this interval. Together with the large increase in the silt fraction, these

  16. Key processes for Cheirolophus (Asteraceae diversification on oceanic islands inferred from AFLP data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Vitales

    Full Text Available The radiation of the genus Cheirolophus (Asteraceae in Macaronesia constitutes a spectacular case of rapid diversification on oceanic islands. Twenty species - nine of them included in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species - have been described to date inhabiting the Madeiran and Canarian archipelagos. A previous phylogenetic study revealed that the diversification of Cheirolophus in Macaronesia started less than 2 Ma. As a result of such an explosive speciation process, limited phylogenetic resolution was reported, mainly due to the low variability of the employed molecular markers. In the present study, we used highly polymorphic AFLP markers to i evaluate species' boundaries, ii infer their evolutionary relationships and iii investigate the patterns of genetic diversity in relation to the potential processes likely involved in the radiation of Cheirolophus. One hundred and seventy-two individuals representing all Macaronesian Cheirolophus species were analysed using 249 AFLP loci. Our results suggest that geographic isolation played an important role in this radiation process. This was likely driven by the combination of poor gene flow capacity and a good ability for sporadic long-distance colonisations. In addition, we also found some traces of introgression and incipient ecological adaptation, which could have further enhanced the extraordinary diversification of Cheirolophus in Macaronesia. Last, we hypothesize that current threat categories assigned to Macaronesian Cheirolophus species do not reflect their respective evolutionary relevance, so future evaluations of their conservation status should take into account the results presented here.

  17. Key processes for Cheirolophus (Asteraceae) diversification on oceanic islands inferred from AFLP data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitales, Daniel; García-Fernández, Alfredo; Pellicer, Jaume; Vallès, Joan; Santos-Guerra, Arnoldo; Cowan, Robyn S; Fay, Michael F; Hidalgo, Oriane; Garnatje, Teresa

    2014-01-01

    The radiation of the genus Cheirolophus (Asteraceae) in Macaronesia constitutes a spectacular case of rapid diversification on oceanic islands. Twenty species - nine of them included in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species - have been described to date inhabiting the Madeiran and Canarian archipelagos. A previous phylogenetic study revealed that the diversification of Cheirolophus in Macaronesia started less than 2 Ma. As a result of such an explosive speciation process, limited phylogenetic resolution was reported, mainly due to the low variability of the employed molecular markers. In the present study, we used highly polymorphic AFLP markers to i) evaluate species' boundaries, ii) infer their evolutionary relationships and iii) investigate the patterns of genetic diversity in relation to the potential processes likely involved in the radiation of Cheirolophus. One hundred and seventy-two individuals representing all Macaronesian Cheirolophus species were analysed using 249 AFLP loci. Our results suggest that geographic isolation played an important role in this radiation process. This was likely driven by the combination of poor gene flow capacity and a good ability for sporadic long-distance colonisations. In addition, we also found some traces of introgression and incipient ecological adaptation, which could have further enhanced the extraordinary diversification of Cheirolophus in Macaronesia. Last, we hypothesize that current threat categories assigned to Macaronesian Cheirolophus species do not reflect their respective evolutionary relevance, so future evaluations of their conservation status should take into account the results presented here.

  18. Molecular phylogenetics of Micromeria (Lamiaceae) in the Canary Islands, diversification and inter-island colonization patterns inferred from nuclear genes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puppo, Pamela; Curto, Manuel; Gusmão-Guedes, Joana; Cochofel, Jaqueline; Pérez de Paz, Pedro Luis; Bräuchler, Christian; Meimberg, Harald

    2015-08-01

    Here we reconstruct the evolutionary history of Micromeria in the Canary Islands using eight nuclear markers. Our results show two centers of diversification for Micromeria, one in the eastern islands Gran Canaria and Lanzarote, the other in the western islands, Tenerife, La Palma and El Hierro. Suggested directions of inter-island colonization are the following: Gran Canaria to Lanzarote and La Gomera; Tenerife to La Palma (from the paleoisland of Teno), to El Hierro (from the younger, central part), and to La Gomera and Madeira (from the paleoislands). Colonization of La Gomera probably occurred several times from Gran Canaria and Tenerife. The taxonomic implications of these results are discussed. Incongruence among the different markers was evaluated and, using next generation sequencing, we investigated if this incongruence is due to gene duplication. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Inferred vs Realized Patterns of Gene Flow: An Analysis of Population Structure in the Andros Island Rock Iguana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colosimo, Giuliano; Knapp, Charles R.; Wallace, Lisa E.; Welch, Mark E.

    2014-01-01

    Ecological data, the primary source of information on patterns and rates of migration, can be integrated with genetic data to more accurately describe the realized connectivity between geographically isolated demes. In this paper we implement this approach and discuss its implications for managing populations of the endangered Andros Island Rock Iguana, Cyclura cychlura cychlura. This iguana is endemic to Andros, a highly fragmented landmass of large islands and smaller cays. Field observations suggest that geographically isolated demes were panmictic due to high, inferred rates of gene flow. We expand on these observations using 16 polymorphic microsatellites to investigate the genetic structure and rates of gene flow from 188 Andros Iguanas collected across 23 island sites. Bayesian clustering of specimens assigned individuals to three distinct genotypic clusters. An analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) indicates that allele frequency differences are responsible for a significant portion of the genetic variance across the three defined clusters (Fst =  0.117, p0.01). These clusters are associated with larger islands and satellite cays isolated by broad water channels with strong currents. These findings imply that broad water channels present greater obstacles to gene flow than was inferred from field observation alone. Additionally, rates of gene flow were indirectly estimated using BAYESASS 3.0. The proportion of individuals originating from within each identified cluster varied from 94.5 to 98.7%, providing further support for local isolation. Our assessment reveals a major disparity between inferred and realized gene flow. We discuss our results in a conservation perspective for species inhabiting highly fragmented landscapes. PMID:25229344

  20. Inferred vs realized patterns of gene flow: an analysis of population structure in the Andros Island Rock Iguana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colosimo, Giuliano; Knapp, Charles R; Wallace, Lisa E; Welch, Mark E

    2014-01-01

    Ecological data, the primary source of information on patterns and rates of migration, can be integrated with genetic data to more accurately describe the realized connectivity between geographically isolated demes. In this paper we implement this approach and discuss its implications for managing populations of the endangered Andros Island Rock Iguana, Cyclura cychlura cychlura. This iguana is endemic to Andros, a highly fragmented landmass of large islands and smaller cays. Field observations suggest that geographically isolated demes were panmictic due to high, inferred rates of gene flow. We expand on these observations using 16 polymorphic microsatellites to investigate the genetic structure and rates of gene flow from 188 Andros Iguanas collected across 23 island sites. Bayesian clustering of specimens assigned individuals to three distinct genotypic clusters. An analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) indicates that allele frequency differences are responsible for a significant portion of the genetic variance across the three defined clusters (Fst =  0.117, p<0.01). These clusters are associated with larger islands and satellite cays isolated by broad water channels with strong currents. These findings imply that broad water channels present greater obstacles to gene flow than was inferred from field observation alone. Additionally, rates of gene flow were indirectly estimated using BAYESASS 3.0. The proportion of individuals originating from within each identified cluster varied from 94.5 to 98.7%, providing further support for local isolation. Our assessment reveals a major disparity between inferred and realized gene flow. We discuss our results in a conservation perspective for species inhabiting highly fragmented landscapes.

  1. Inferred vs realized patterns of gene flow: an analysis of population structure in the Andros Island Rock Iguana.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuliano Colosimo

    Full Text Available Ecological data, the primary source of information on patterns and rates of migration, can be integrated with genetic data to more accurately describe the realized connectivity between geographically isolated demes. In this paper we implement this approach and discuss its implications for managing populations of the endangered Andros Island Rock Iguana, Cyclura cychlura cychlura. This iguana is endemic to Andros, a highly fragmented landmass of large islands and smaller cays. Field observations suggest that geographically isolated demes were panmictic due to high, inferred rates of gene flow. We expand on these observations using 16 polymorphic microsatellites to investigate the genetic structure and rates of gene flow from 188 Andros Iguanas collected across 23 island sites. Bayesian clustering of specimens assigned individuals to three distinct genotypic clusters. An analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA indicates that allele frequency differences are responsible for a significant portion of the genetic variance across the three defined clusters (Fst =  0.117, p<<0.01. These clusters are associated with larger islands and satellite cays isolated by broad water channels with strong currents. These findings imply that broad water channels present greater obstacles to gene flow than was inferred from field observation alone. Additionally, rates of gene flow were indirectly estimated using BAYESASS 3.0. The proportion of individuals originating from within each identified cluster varied from 94.5 to 98.7%, providing further support for local isolation. Our assessment reveals a major disparity between inferred and realized gene flow. We discuss our results in a conservation perspective for species inhabiting highly fragmented landscapes.

  2. Origin of yellow kingfish, Seriola lalandi, from Lord Howe Island, Australia, inferred from otolith chemistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patterson, H.M.; Swearer, S.E.

    2008-01-01

    Yellowtail kingfish, Seriola lalandi (Family Carangidae), sustain important commercial and recreational fisheries in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. However, little is known about their population structure, particularly whether the kingfish around Lord Howe Island (LHI) comprise a distinct stock, separate from that of the NSW stock. We examined the otolith chemistry from juvenile kingfish collected from LHI, several NSW sites and Elizabeth and Middleton reefs (EMR) and compared those elemental signatures to the juvenile portion of adult otoliths collected from LHI to determine where the adults may have originated. Our results indicate a robust separation in otolith signatures from different locations (error rate of classification ranged from 3.5% to 9.9%), and suggest that a significant proportion of the adult kingfish sampled (28%) may have originated in the waters around LHI or nearby EMR. Further research may indicate that the management of kingfish in NSW waters could benefit from a more spatially explicit strategy. (author). 32 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  3. HLA genes in Madeira Island (Portugal) inferred from sequence-based typing: footprints from different origins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spínola, Hélder; Bruges-Armas, Jácome; Mora, Marian Gantes; Middleton, Derek; Brehm, António

    2006-04-01

    Human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-A, HLA-B, and HLA-DRB1 polymorphisms were examined in Madeira Island populations. The data was obtained at high-resolution level, using sequence-based typing (SBT). The most frequent alleles at each loci were: A*020101 (24.6%), B*5101 (9.7%), B*440201 (9.2%), and DRB1*070101 (15.7%). The predominant three-loci haplotypes in Madeira were A*020101-B*510101-DRB1*130101 (2.7%) and A*010101-B*0801-DRB1*030101 (2.4%), previously found in north and central Portugal. The present study corroborates historical sources and other genetic studies that say Madeira were populated not only by Europeans, mostly Portuguese, but also sub-Saharan Africans due to slave trade. Comparison with other populations shows that Madeira experienced a stronger African influence due to slave trade than Portugal mainland and even the Azores archipelago. Despite this African genetic input, haplotype and allele frequencies were predominantly from European origin, mostly common to mainland Portugal.

  4. Magnetic structure of Basse-Terre volcanic island (Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles) inferred from 3D inversion of aeromagnetic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnoud, Anne; Bouligand, Claire; Coutant, Olivier; Carlut, Julie

    2017-12-01

    We interpret aeromagnetic data to constrain the magnetic structure of the island of Basse-Terre, Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles. Aeromagnetic data are inverted in the spatial domain with a Bayesian formulation to retrieve the 3D distribution of rock magnetization intensity and polarity. The inversion is regularized using a correlation length and standard deviation for magnetization chosen to be consistent with results from paleomagnetic measurements on lava flow samples from Basse-Terre. The resulting 3D model of magnetization is consistent at the surface with observed polarities and at depth with a 2D model obtained from a Parker and Huestis (1974) inversion in the Fourier domain. The inferred magnetic structure is compared with the available geological information deduced from published geological, geomorphological and geochronological studies. In the southern part of the island, very low magnetization is observed around the Soufrière lava dome, last activity of the Grande-Découverte-Carmichaël-Soufrière composite volcano, in relation with a high level of hydrothermal alteration. High-magnetizations in the South-East might reflect the presence of massive lava flows and lava domes from the Madeleine vents and Monts Caraïbes. Medium magnetizations in the South-West coincide with the location of debris avalanche deposits associated with the collapse of the former Carmichaël volcano and might reflect less massive lava structure at depth. Using the volume of normal polarity in the South part of Basse-Terre recovered in our 3D model of rock magnetization, we estimate an average construction rate of ∼ 9.4 ×10-4 km3/yr during the Brunhes chron which provides new insights on the volcanic activity of La Soufrière volcano.

  5. Mercury and other trace elements in a pelagic Arctic marine food web (Northwater Polynya, Baffin Bay)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, Linda M.; Norstrom, Ross J.; Hobson, Keith A.; Muir, Derek C.G.; Backus, Sean; Fisk, Aaron T.

    2005-01-01

    Total mercury (THg), methylmercury (MeHg) and 22 other trace elements were measured in ice algae, three species of zooplankton, mixed zooplankton samples, Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida), ringed seals (Phoca hispida) and eight species of seabirds to examine the trophodynamics of these metals in an Arctic marine food web. All samples were collected in 1998 in the Northwater Polynya (NOW) located between Ellesmere Island and Greenland in Baffin Bay. THg and MeHg were found to biomagnify through the NOW food web, based on significant positive relationships between log THg and log MeHg concentrations vs. δ 15 N muscle and liver . The slope of these relationships for muscle THg and MeHg concentrations (slope = 0.197 and 0.223, respectively) were similar to those reported for other aquatic food webs. The food web behavior of THg and δ 15 N appears constant, regardless of trophic state (eutrophic vs. oligotrophic), latitude (Arctic vs. tropical) or salinity (marine vs. freshwater) of the ecosystem. Rb in both liver and muscle tissue and Zn in muscle tissue were also found to biomagnify through this food web, although at a rate that is approximately 25% of that of THg. A number of elements (Cd, Pb and Ni in muscle tissue and Cd and Li in seabird liver tissue) were found to decrease trophically through the food web, as indicated by significantly negative relationships with tissue-specific δ 15 N. A diverse group of metals (Ag, Ba, La, Li, Sb, Sr, U and V) were found to have higher concentrations in zooplankton than seabirds or marine mammals due to bioconcentration from seawater. The remaining metals (As, Co, Cu, Ga, Mn, Mo and Se in muscle tissue) showed no relationship with trophic position, as indicated by δ 15 N values, although As in liver tissue showed significant biomagnification in the seabird portion of the food web

  6. Volcanic sulfur dioxide index and volcanic explosivity index inferred from eruptive volume of volcanoes in Jeju Island, Korea: application to volcanic hazard mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Bokyun; Yun, Sung-Hyo

    2016-04-01

    Jeju Island located in the southwestern part of Korea Peninsula is a volcanic island composed of lavaflows, pyroclasts, and around 450 monogenetic volcanoes. The volcanic activity of the island commenced with phreatomagmatic eruptions under subaqueous condition ca. 1.8-2.0 Ma and lasted until ca. 1,000 year BP. For evaluating volcanic activity of the most recently erupted volcanoes with reported age, volcanic explosivity index (VEI) and volcanic sulfur dioxide index (VSI) of three volcanoes (Ilchulbong tuff cone, Songaksan tuff ring, and Biyangdo scoria cone) are inferred from their eruptive volumes. The quantity of eruptive materials such as tuff, lavaflow, scoria, and so on, is calculated using a model developed in Auckland Volcanic Field which has similar volcanic setting to the island. The eruptive volumes of them are 11,911,534 m3, 24,987,557 m3, and 9,652,025 m3, which correspond to VEI of 3, 3, and 2, respectively. According to the correlation between VEI and VSI, the average quantity of SO2 emission during an eruption with VEI of 3 is 2-8 × 103 kiloton considering that the island was formed under intraplate tectonic setting. Jeju Island was regarded as an extinct volcano, however, several studies have recently reported some volcanic eruption ages within 10,000 year BP owing to the development in age dating technique. Thus, the island is a dormant volcano potentially implying high probability to erupt again in the future. The volcanoes might have explosive eruptions (vulcanian to plinian) with the possibility that SO2 emitted by the eruption reaches stratosphere causing climate change due to backscattering incoming solar radiation, increase in cloud reflectivity, etc. Consequently, recommencement of volcanic eruption in the island is able to result in serious volcanic hazard and this study provides fundamental and important data for volcanic hazard mitigation of East Asia as well as the island. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: This research was supported by a grant [MPSS

  7. The numbers of ringed seals (Phoca hispida in Baffin Bay and associated waters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael C S Kingsley

    1998-06-01

    Full Text Available The size of the population of ringed seals (Phoca hispida inhabiting Baffin Bay and associated waters was estimated by two methods. An approximate model of the energetics of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus estimated an energetic need of about 16,000 MJ/bear per year. Modelled estimates of the energetic yield of a ringed seal population showed that a stable standing population of 140-170 ringed seals per bear would be needed to provide that much energy, assuming that all mortalities were due to polar bear predation. This result was sensitive to assumptions about the Field Metabolic Rate (FMR of the bears and the energetic yield of individual ringed seals, but less sensitive to assumptions about relative incidence of predation on different age classes of seal or the age structure of the polar bear population. Estimated sizes of polar bear populations in Baffin Bay and associated waters (total about 4,025, and of the standing population needed to support an estimated hunter kill of 100,000 yielded a population estimate of, very roughly, 1.2 million ringed seals. Estimates of ice areas and of the density of hauled out seals from aerial surveys were used to generate another approximate figure for the ringed seal population, which was about the same. The density of seals in the pack-ice area of Baffin Bay, which is imperfectly known, has a large influence on the latter estimate.

  8. Magnetotelluric imaging of the resurgent caldera on the island of Ischia (southern Italy): inferences for its structure and activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Giuseppe, M. G.; Troiano, A.; Carlino, S.

    2017-12-01

    The island of Ischia (located in the Bay of Naples, Italy) represents a peculiar case of a well-exposed caldera that has experienced a large (>800 m) and rapid resurgence, accompanied by volcanic activity. What drives the resurgence of calderas is a crucial issue to investigate, because this process is associated with potential eruptions and high risk to people living within and around such large active volcanic systems. To improve the knowledge of volcano-tectonic processes affecting the caldera of Ischia, electromagnetic imaging of the structures associated with its resurgence was performed and integrated with available geological information. A magnetotelluric (MT) survey of the island was carried out along two main profiles through the central-western sector, providing an electrical resistivity map to a depth of 3 km. These resistivity cross sections allowed us to identify the presence of a very shallow magmatic intrusion, possibly a laccolith, at a depth of about 1 km, which was responsible for both the resurgence and the volcanic activity. Furthermore, the tectonic structures bordering the resurgent area and the occurrence of a large thermal anomaly in the western sector of the caldera also provided a signature in the resistivity cross sections, with the magma intrusion producing advection of hot fluids with high geothermal gradients (>150 °C km-1) in the southern and western sectors. All of these data are fundamental for the assessment of the island's volcano-tectonic dynamics and their associated hazards. The structure and activity of the island have been controlled by the process of resurgence associated with the arrival of new magma and the progressive intrusion of a laccolith at a shallow depth. The reactivation of such a shallow system may imply imminent eruption which would pose a major volcanic hazard.

  9. delta 18O variations in snow on the Devon Island ice cap, Northwest Territories, Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koerner, R.; Russel, R.D.

    1979-01-01

    A study of delta 18 O variations of snow samples taken on traverses across the Devon Island ice cap in June 1971, 1972, and 1973 has shown a difference between the accumulation conditions on the souteast and nortwest sides of the ice cap. On the souteast side there is an increasing depletion of 18 O in the snow with increasing elevation. This pattern is attibuted to the effect of orographic uplift of air masses moving over the ice cap from the southeast, which promotes condensation and precipitation due to adiabatic cooling. On the northwest side of the ice cap there is no evidence of any further depletion of 18 O in snow, neither with increasing distance from the possible moisture source in Baffin Bay to the southeast nor with increasing elevation if the air mass comes from the northwest. In this case condensation is due to isobaric cooling so that precipitation is generally from level cloud bases. The changes inferred for the isotopic composition of the water vapour as it rises up the southeast slope are found to be consistent with its depletion through precipitation under near-equilibrium conditions. It is calculated that approximately 30% of the moisture at sea level on the southeast side of the ice cap and 8% at the top of the ice cap are of local origin. Lower temporal and aerial variability of the delta values on the southeast side of the ice cap is attributed to dominance of the Baffin Bay low on that side Effecting consistency of storm conditions there. The delta values of ice in the ablation zone on the Sverdrup Glacier show the combined effect of ice movement from the accumulation to the ablation zone and climatic change during the period of movement from cold to warm and back to cold conditions again. (auth)

  10. Volcanic volatile budgets and fluxes inferred from melt inclusions from post-shield volcanoes in Hawaii and the Canary Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, L.; Gazel, E.; Bodnar, R. J.; Carracedo, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    Pre-eruptive volatile contents of volcanic melts recorded by melt inclusions are useful for estimating rates of deep earth ingassing and outgassing on geologic timescales. Ocean island volcanoes may erupt melts derived from recycled material and thus have implications regarding the degree to which volatile-bearing phases like magnesite can survive subduction and be recycled by intraplate magmatism. However, melt inclusions affected by degassing will not reflect the original volatile content of the primary melt. Post-shield ocean island volcanoes are thought to erupt volatile-rich melts that ascend quickly, crystallizing in deep reservoirs and are more likely to reflect the composition of the primary melt. In this study, we compare melt inclusions from post-shield volcanoes, Haleakala (East Maui, Hawaii) and Tenerife (Canary Islands), to estimate the volatile budgets of two presumably plume-related ocean-island settings. Melt inclusions from Haleakala contain up to 1.5 wt% CO2, up to 1.3 wt% H2O, and about 2000 ppm of S. The CO2 concentration is similar to estimates for primary CO2 concentrations for Hawaii, suggesting that the melt inclusions in this study trapped a melt that underwent minimal degassing. Assuming a melt production rate of 2 km3/ka for postshield Hawaiian volcanism, the average fluxes of CO2 and S are about 80 t/year and 10 t/year respectively. Melt inclusions from Tenerife contain up to 1 wt% CO2, up to 2 wt% H2O, and about 4000 ppm of S. Assuming a melt production rate of 0.8 km3/ka for the northeast rift zone of Tenerife, the average fluxes of CO2 and S are about 20 t/year and 8 t/year respectively. The concentration of CO2 is lower than estimates of the primary melt CO2 content based on CO2/Nb from El Hierro. This may indicate that the inclusions trapped a melt that had degassed significantly, or that some of the CO2 in the inclusions has been sequestered in carbonate daughter crystals, which were observed in abundance.

  11. A possible submarine mud volcano from the southeast Baffin Island shelf

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Woodworth-Lynas, C. M. T

    1983-01-01

    .... The mechanism of formulation may be by the extrusion of a pressurized mixture of unconsolidated sediments, oil, gas and conate water escaping to the seafloor by upward movement along a contact...

  12. Comparison of the glacial chronology of Eastern Baffin Island, East Greenland and Camp century accumulation record

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andrews, John; Funder, Svend Visby; Hjort, Chritian

    1974-01-01

    ) an interval about 40,000 to 11,000 yr ago of restricted ice extent; and (5) a late glacial sladial belween 11,000 and 8,000 B.P. This record shows basic agreement with a chronology of snow accumulation at the Camp Century ice core site based on a revised chronostratigraphic interpretation. Fluctuations in sea...... level between 120,000 and 70,000 B.P. may well be related to glacierization of high arctic land masses under conditions of heavy snowfall. The subsequent reduction of accumulation in these high arctic areas then leads to a reduction of ice volume with a dry, cold interstadial correlative in time...

  13. Genesis of fumarolic emissions as inferred by isotope mass balances: CO 2 and water at Vulcano Island, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paonita, A.; Favara, R.; Nuccio, P. M.; Sortino, F.

    2002-03-01

    We have developed a quantitative model of CO2 and H2O isotopic mixing between magmatic and hydrothermal gases for the fumarolic emissions of the La Fossa crater (Vulcano Island, Italy). On the basis of isotope balance equations, the model takes into account the isotope equilibrium between H2O and CO2 and extends the recent model of chemical and energy two-end-member mixing by Nuccio et al. (1999). As a result, the H2O and CO2 content and the δD, δ18O, and δ13C isotope compositions for both magmatic and hydrothermal end-members have been assessed. Low contributions of meteoric steam, added at a shallow depth, have been also recognized and quantified in the fumaroles throughout the period from 1988 to 1998. Nonequilibrium oxygen isotope exchange also seems to be occurring between ascending gases and wall rocks along some fumarolic conduits. The δ13CCO2 of the magmatic gases varies around -3 to 1‰ vs. Peedee belemnite (PDB), following a perfect synchronism with the variations of the CO2 concentration in the magmatic gases. This suggests a process of isotope fractionation because of vapor exsolution caused by magma depressurization. The hydrogen isotopes in the magmatic gases (-1 to -‰ vs. standard mean ocean water [SMOW]), as well as the above δ13CCO2 value, are coherent with a convergent tectonic setting of magma generation, where the local mantle is widely contaminated by fluids released from the subducted slab. Magma contamination in the crust probably amplifies this effect. The computed isotope composition of carbon and hydrogen in the hydrothermal vapors has been used to calculate the δD and δ13C of the entire hydrothermal system, including mixed H2O-CO2 vapor, liquid water, and dissolved carbon. We have computed values of about 10‰ vs. SMOW for water and -2 to -6.5‰ vs. PDB for CO2. On these grounds, we think that Mediterranean marine water (δDH2O ≈ 10‰) feeds the hydrothermal system. It infiltrates at depth throughout the local rocks

  14. Melting mode and source lithology inferred from trace element systematic in historical olivine from Lanzarote, Canary Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Ulla, Alejandra; Sigmarsson, Olgeir; Guðfinnsson, Guðmundur H.

    2017-04-01

    Trace element concentrations and ratios in olivine phenocrysts, such as fractionation-corrected Ni x (FeO/MgO) and Fe/Mn, have been shown useful as probes of pyroxenite derived component in mixtures of primary mantle melts (e.g. Sobolev et al., 2007). For instance, higher Ni and lower Mn and Ca contents are expected in partial melts of pyroxenite compared to those of lherzolite. We have measured trace element concentrations in olivine from 1730-1736 AD (Timanfaya) and 1824 AD eruptions in Lanzarote (Canary Islands), which erupted mafic and mantle nodule bearing magmas, ranging in composition from highly silica-undersaturated basanite through alkali basalt to tholeiite. The early basanite exhibit the largest olivine trace element variation covering the range of those from MORB and OIB worldwide, whereas later erupted tholeiite have values typical from pyroxenite derived melts. The Fo value decreased systematically with time during the 1730-36 eruption and the proportion of silica-saturated primary melt increased in the parental magma mixture with time. At the end of the eruption, tholeiite magmas crystallized olivine with, increasing concentrations of Mn and Ca and higher Ca/Al at relatively uniform Ni x (FeO/MgO) and Fe/Mn, all of which is readily explained by increased decompression melting at lower temperature. The basanite from the eruption that took place in 1824 AD has olivine with even higher Fo value and trace element variability similar those of the Timanfaya basanite. The fact that the Lanzarote basanite contain olivine with trace element systematic spanning that of MORB and pyroxenite melt can be explained by CO2-flux melting of a lithologically heterogeneous source, generating the diverse compositions. Initial reactive porous flow through depleted oceanic lithosphere and equilibration with dunitic restite of percolating pyroxenite melt may have amplified the observed Ni depletion in olivine of the earliest basanite. The fact that olivine compositions and

  15. The crustal structure of Ellesmere Island, Arctic Canada—teleseismic mapping across a remote intraplate orogenic belt

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiffer, Christian; Stephenson, Randell Alexander; Oakey, Gordon

    2016-01-01

    Ellesmere Island in Arctic Canada displays a complex geological evolution. The region was affected by two distinct orogenies, the Palaeozoic Ellesmerian orogeny (the Caledonian equivalent in Arctic Canada and Northern Greenland) and the Palaeogene Eurekan orogeny, related to the opening of Baffin...

  16. Identifying Challenges and Opportunities for Residents in Upernavik as Oil Companies are Making a First Entrance into Baffin Bay

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Merrild, Anne; Tejsner, Pelle

    2016-01-01

    The oil industry is making its first entrance offshore in Baffin Bay in a time where Inuit residents on the northwest coast of Greenland are struggling to uphold a traditional way of living. The operating oil companies are encouraged by the Government of Greenland to promote a high degree of loca...

  17. The crustal structure of Ellesmere Island, Arctic Canada—teleseismic mapping across a remote intraplate orogenic belt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiffer, Christian; Stephenson, Randell; Oakey, Gordon N.; Jacobsen, Bo H.

    2016-03-01

    Ellesmere Island in Arctic Canada displays a complex geological evolution. The region was affected by two distinct orogenies, the Palaeozoic Ellesmerian orogeny (the Caledonian equivalent in Arctic Canada and Northern Greenland) and the Palaeogene Eurekan orogeny, related to the opening of Baffin Bay and the consequent convergence of the Greenland plate. The details of this complex evolution and the present-day deep structure are poorly constrained in this remote area and deep geophysical data are sparse. Receiver function analysis of seven temporary broad-band seismometers of the Ellesmere Island Lithosphere Experiment complemented by two permanent stations provides important data on the crustal velocity structure of Ellesmere Island. The crustal expression of the northernmost tectonic block of Ellesmere Island (˜82°-83°N), Pearya, which was accreted during the Ellesmerian orogeny, is similar to that at the southernmost part, which is part of the Precambrian Laurentian (North America-Greenland) craton. Both segments have thick crystalline crust (˜35-36 km) and comparable velocity-depth profiles. In contrast, crustal thickness in central Ellesmere Island decreases from ˜24-30 km in the Eurekan fold and thrust belt (˜79.7°-80.6°N) to ˜16-20 km in the Hazen Stable Block (HSB; ˜80.6°-81.4°N) and is covered by a thick succession of metasediments. A deep crustal root (˜48 km) at ˜79.6°N is interpreted as cratonic crust flexed beneath the Eurekan fold and thrust belt. The Carboniferous to Palaeogene sedimentary succession of the Sverdrup Basin is inferred to be up to 1-4 km thick, comparable to geologically-based estimates, near the western margin of the HSB.

  18. THE BAFFIN BAY REGION DURING THE LAST INTERGLACIATION: EVIDENCE FROM NORTHWEST GREENLAND

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Funder, Svend Visby

    1989-01-01

    Coastal sections in the Thule area, northwest Greenland, provide a recordof last interglacial glacial and oceanographic events on the northern perimeter of Baffin Bay. The record is dated by a combination of thermoluminescence and 14C dating; local and regional correlation is provided by amino acid...... for the last nterglacial/glacial cycle was attained during Middle Sangamonian times, and a smaller advance took place in the Late Wisconsinan. In beween ice coverage was similar to the present, or smaller. The record provides a link between events in Arctic Canada and northern Greenland, and shows...... analyses of mollusc shells, and periods of penetration by warm subarctic water have been identified by their foraminifera and mollusc faunas. Subarclic water reached the area on three occasions: during the Holocene, and in the Early and Late Sangamonian. Maximum, although restricted, ice coverage...

  19. A Bioeconomic model of ocean acidification in the Baffin Bay/ Davis Strait Shrimp Fishery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaiser, Brooks; Ravn-Jonsen, Lars

    We examine the case of the shrimp fishery in Baffin Bay/Davis Straight for potential effects of Ocean Acidification (OA), including: 1. the overall productivity of the shrimp fishery, 2. the spatial spread of the shrimp fishery, 3. the quality of the shrimp brought to market, and hence price...... and indirect costs of OA by comparing optimal bio-economic use of the shrimp fishery without ecosystem productivity shifts due to OA and with shifts due to OA. The demand side includes product differentiation to account for price differentials from different quality levels. The supply side includes costs...... or indirectly as the energy requirements of reproduction and growth shift the characteristics of the shrimp throughout the lifecycle....

  20. The co-distribution of seabirds and their juvenile fish prey in Baffin Bay

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    LeBlanc, Mathieu; Mosbech, Anders; Fortier, Louis

    documented. We test the hypothesis that the abundance and biomass of juvenile fish, especially at the sea-ice edge, influence the distribution and composition of the seabird assemblage. Hydroacoustic data were recorded continuously during the CCGS Amundsen GreenEdge 2016 cruise in southern Baffin Bay, using...... cod (Boreogadus saida), the main pelagic forage fish, plays a key role by transferring energy from the zooplankton to the upper trophic levels, including seabirds. The interactions between fish and seabirds at the sea-ice edge, an environment increasingly common in the warming Arctic, are poorly...... a hull-mounted EK60 multi-frequency echosounder. Pelagic nets were deployed to document the fish assemblage and to validate the acoustic echoes. Seabird observations during transit periods and seabird sampling in Greenland waters were completed. This study will provide insights in the predator...

  1. Age of overwash and rate of relative sea-level rise inferred from detrital heads and microatolls of medieval corals at Anegada, British Virgin Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer, W.; Feuillet, N.; Robert, H.; Brian, A.; Ten Brink, U. S.; Deschamps, P.; Tuttle, M. P.; Wei, Y.; Fuentes, Z.

    2012-12-01

    Coral boulders deposited on Anegada, an island 120 km south of the Puerto Rico Trench, record overwash dated to AD 1200-1450 and relative sea-level changes that preceded it. Composed largely of Pleistocene limestone, Anegada is less than 8 m above sea level and is fringed on the north and east by a coral reef where Atlantic Ocean waves break. The lowest parts of the island were washed over from the north in AD 1650-1800, as judged from landforms and deposits reported previously (doi:10.1007/s11069-010-9622-6). The coral boulders indicate overwash of higher elevation and earlier age. The boulders were apparently torn from the adjacent reef by a tsunami of nearby origin, as inferred in companion abstracts on geology and modeling. We found the corals scattered in five areas inland from the north shore. Two of the areas show solitary coral heads 1500 m from the reef. The boulders are more numerous in the three other areas, where they are up to 500-700 m from the reef and up to 4 m above sea level. Some were transported over beach ridges or through breaches cut into them. Others are hundreds of meters inland from a modern storm berm. Most rest on the Pleistocene limestone. Many are overturned. Most are broken but few are whole. The largest measured diameter is 2 m and the greatest measured height is 1 m. Most of the boulders are of the brain coral Diploria strigosa, but smaller Porites asteroides and Montastrea annularis are also present. Some of the D. strigosa retain the rounded shape typical of living heads and are dimpled with holes perhaps left by feather-duster worms. The preservation of these features suggests that many of the boulders came ashore alive. We avoided dating a head that shows field evidence for death before transport; an erosional surface cuts across its youngest growth bands and is covered with the remains of encrusting marine organisms. Among the 18 coral boulders dated, 13 form a young group with ages in the range 890±25 to 1020±25 14C yr BP

  2. Greenland coastal air temperatures linked to Baffin Bay and Greenland Sea ice conditions during autumn through regional blocking patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballinger, Thomas J.; Hanna, Edward; Hall, Richard J.; Miller, Jeffrey; Ribergaard, Mads H.; Høyer, Jacob L.

    2018-01-01

    Variations in sea ice freeze onset and regional sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in Baffin Bay and Greenland Sea are linked to autumn surface air temperatures (SATs) around coastal Greenland through 500 hPa blocking patterns, 1979-2014. We find strong, statistically significant correlations between Baffin Bay freeze onset and SSTs and SATs across the western and southernmost coastal areas, while weaker and fewer significant correlations are found between eastern SATs, SSTs, and freeze periods observed in the neighboring Greenland Sea. Autumn Greenland Blocking Index values and the incidence of meridional circulation patterns have increased over the modern sea ice monitoring era. Increased anticyclonic blocking patterns promote poleward transport of warm air from lower latitudes and local warm air advection onshore from ocean-atmosphere sensible heat exchange through ice-free or thin ice-covered seas bordering the coastal stations. Temperature composites by years of extreme late freeze conditions, occurring since 2006 in Baffin Bay, reveal positive monthly SAT departures that often exceed 1 standard deviation from the 1981-2010 climate normal over coastal areas that exhibit a similar spatial pattern as the peak correlations.

  3. Organochlorine contaminants in seven species of Arctic seabirds from northern Baffin Bay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buckman, Andrea H.; Norstrom, Ross J.; Hobson, Keith A.; Karnovsky, Nina J.; Duffe, Jason; Fisk, Aaron T.

    2004-01-01

    Organochlorine contaminants (OCs) were determined in liver and fat of seven species of seabirds (Alle alle, Uria lomvia, Cepphus grylle, Rissa tridactyla, Pagophila eburnea, Larus hyperboreus, and Fulmaris glacialis) collected in May/June 1998 from the Northwater Polynya in northern Baffin Bay. OC concentrations ranged over an order of magnitude between seabird species and OC groups, with PCBs having the highest concentrations followed by DDT, chlordane, HCH and ClBz. Positive relationships between δ 15 N (estimator of trophic level) and OC concentrations (lipid basis) were found for all OC groups, showing that trophic position and biomagnification significantly influence OC concentrations in Arctic seabirds. Concentrations of a number of OCs in particular species (e.g., HCH in P. eburnean) were lower than expected based on δ 15 N and was attributed to biotransformation. P. eburnea and F. glacialis, which scavenge, and R. tridactyla, which migrate from the south, were consistently above the δ 15 N-OC regression providing evidence that these variables can elevate OC concentrations. Stable isotope measurements in muscle may not be suitable for identifying past scavenging events by seabirds. OC relative proportions were related to trophic position and phylogeny, showing that OC biotransformation varies between seabird groups. Trophic level, migration, scavenging and biotransformation all play important roles in the OCs found in Arctic seabirds. - Concentrations of organochlorides in high Arctic seabirds are influenced by trophic level, migration, scavenging and biotransformation

  4. The north-east Baffin Bay region, offshore Greenland - a new frontier petroleum exploration region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gregersen, U. (Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen (Denmark))

    2008-07-15

    In recent years the Arctic has come into focus for hydrocarbon exploration, and areas offshore both West and East Greenland have been evaluated as promising frontier hydrocarbon provinces. Seven hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation licenses were awarded in 2007-2008 offshore the Disko-Nuussuaq region, and two more have been awarded in the open-door region offshore south-western Greenland. In 2007, an extensive amount of new seismic and aero-magnetic data was acquired by the TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company in the north-eastern Baffin Bay region. Geophysical mapping has been initiated by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) in the Melville Bugt region offshore North-West Greenland with the purpose of evaluating the hydrocarbon prospectivity. Initial interpretation of seismic and gravity data suggests the presence of deep sedimentary basins separated by structural highs. Geological information on source rock, reservoir rock and seal intervals from surrounding regions suggest that the Melville Bugt region is likely to have a significant petroleum potential. The study is based on public domain magnetic and gravity data, and all proprietary and public 2-D seismic data acquired before 2003. Seismic horizons from the 'seismic basement' to 'base Quaternary' are being interpreted regionally. Based on the seismic interpretation, a structural element map, depth-structure maps and isopach maps will be produced in order to assess the prospectivity of the Melville Bugt region. (au)

  5. Population size and yield of Baffin Bay beluga (Delphinapterus leucas stocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart Innes

    2002-07-01

    Full Text Available A surplus production model within a Sampling, Importance Resampling (SIR Bayesian analysis was used to estimate stock sizes and yields of Baffin Bay belugas. The catch of belugas in West Greenland increased in 1968 and has remained well above sustainable rates. SIR analysis indicated a decline of about 50% between 1981 and 1994, with a credibility interval that included a previous estimate of 62%. The estimated stock sizes of belugas wintering off West Greenland in 1998 and 1999 were approximately 5,100 and 4,100 respectively and were not significantly different than an estimate based on aerial surveys combined for both years. Projected to 1999 this stock can sustain median landings of 109 whales with a total kill of about 155, based on posterior estimates of struck and lost plus under-reporting. The declining stock size index series did not provide sufficient information to estimate the potential maximum rate of population growth, the number of whales struck and lost, or the shape of the production curve with precision. Estimating these parameters requires an index time series with a marked step change in catch or a series with increasing stock sizes. The stock size estimate for the belugas wintering in the North Water in 1999 was approximately 14,800 but there is no information about the population biology of these whales. The estimated maximum sustainable yield (landed for the North Water stock was 317 belugas.

  6. Impact of the large-scale Arctic circulation and the North Water Polynya on nutrient inventories in Baffin Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tremblay, Jean-Éric; Gratton, Yves; Carmack, Eddy C.; Payne, Christopher D.; Price, Neil M.

    2002-08-01

    The distributions of nitrate, phosphate, and silicate in northern Baffin Bay were determined from 90 bottle casts taken between April 11 and July 21, 1998. During late spring, low-salinity Arctic water entered northern Smith Sound and mixed with Baffin Bay water (BBW) within the North Water Polynya. The Arctic water originated from the Bering Sea and contained high concentrations of phosphate and silicate (referred to as silicate-rich Arctic water (SRAW)). The distribution of the two water masses was established using a new tracer, Siex, which showed moderate penetration of SRAW into Smith Sound during April and a very strong incursion in May and June, consistent with the intensification of southward current velocities. Biological depletion of macronutrients in BBW began in April and continued until nitrate was exhausted from the upper mixed layer in early June. Beneath the Polynya the deep waters (>450 m) showed a marked increase in nutrient concentration toward the bottom, which was most pronounced in the south and much stronger for silicate than nitrate and phosphate. The silicate enrichment was consistent with dissolution of diatom-derived biogenic silica in deep waters. The results indicate that the North Water acts as a silicate trap in which the biota differentially transports surface silicate to depth, thereby influencing local and downstream nutrient signatures.

  7. Indoor air quality and risk of severe lower respiratory tract infection in Inuit infants in Baffin Region, Nunavut

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kovesi, T. [Children' s Hospital of Easterrn Ontario, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    This paper discussed the indoor air quality in the houses of Inuit infants in Nunavut and the health implications. Inuit infants in the Baffin (Qikiqtani) Region of Nunavut have the highest reported rate in the world of severe lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) including bronchiolitis and pneumonia requiring hospitalization. This population also has a high rate of long-term complications after severe LRTI. The houses in the region are small and crowded and tend to be kept warm and humid. Although the homes are heated with low-sulphur Arctic diesel, there is no evidence of leakage from furnaces, as nitrogen dioxide concentrations are low. Houses are generally clean, with very low levels of dust mites and generally low levels of indoor mould. However, indoor smoking is prevalent. According to measured ventilation of indoor carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) concentrations, most houses have ventilation rates below recommended standards. A controlled trial of installing heat recovery ventilators (HRVs) in the homes of the 68 young Inuit children in 3 communities in the Baffin Region has shown that active HRVs can significantly reduce mean indoor CO{sub 2} concentrations and increase occupant comfort. Health outcomes are currently undergoing analysis. 11 refs.

  8. Non-breeding Cackling, Ross's and Snow Geese on Baffin Island show no loss of body mass during wing moult

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fox, Anthony David; Leafloor, James O.; Balsby, Thorsten Johannes Skovbjerg

    2016-01-01

    is consistent with the hypothesis that in other species of geese, accumulation of fat stores prior to, and depletion of such stores during, wing moult is adaptive and likely to be a feature of individual plasticity to meet particular needs, such as undertaking moult migration to remote sites where precise...

  9. Frobisher Bay, Baffin Island, Northwest Territories, Canada. Revised Uniform Summary of Surface Weather Observations (RUSSWO). Parts A-F.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1970-01-29

    55.2 56.4’.56.6 !)6,b 57,5 57, h~ 51.0 59,.3 50,3 58.8 39, 9000 2. 54.9 S4.2 1 56. 1 46-1 10 . " 5 5.4 56. l 5 l9. 5 ., .¢7 599. S700 oo 5.9 57.6a a8...97,9 97, 97, 97. 97, 97, 0 73,6 8304 4j*1 09*2 910 93sQ 96, 99 96.9 97.. 96.7 8, 9. 98. 9. S700 71.6 R3,4 011 692 93 ,0 93,5 967 96.9 96,9 97,2 98. 98

  10. Fault strength in Marmara region inferred from the geometry of the principle stress axes and fault orientations: A case study for the Prince's Islands fault segment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinar, Ali; Coskun, Zeynep; Mert, Aydin; Kalafat, Dogan

    2015-04-01

    The general consensus based on historical earthquake data point out that the last major moment release on the Prince's islands fault was in 1766 which in turn signals an increased seismic risk for Istanbul Metropolitan area considering the fact that most of the 20 mm/yr GPS derived slip rate for the region is accommodated mostly by that fault segment. The orientation of the Prince's islands fault segment overlaps with the NW-SE direction of the maximum principle stress axis derived from the focal mechanism solutions of the large and moderate sized earthquakes occurred in the Marmara region. As such, the NW-SE trending fault segment translates the motion between the two E-W trending branches of the North Anatolian fault zone; one extending from the Gulf of Izmit towards Çınarcık basin and the other extending between offshore Bakırköy and Silivri. The basic relation between the orientation of the maximum and minimum principal stress axes, the shear and normal stresses, and the orientation of a fault provides clue on the strength of a fault, i.e., its frictional coefficient. Here, the angle between the fault normal and maximum compressive stress axis is a key parameter where fault normal and fault parallel maximum compressive stress might be a necessary and sufficient condition for a creeping event. That relation also implies that when the trend of the sigma-1 axis is close to the strike of the fault the shear stress acting on the fault plane approaches zero. On the other hand, the ratio between the shear and normal stresses acting on a fault plane is proportional to the coefficient of frictional coefficient of the fault. Accordingly, the geometry between the Prince's islands fault segment and a maximum principal stress axis matches a weak fault model. In the frame of the presentation we analyze seismological data acquired in Marmara region and interpret the results in conjuction with the above mentioned weak fault model.

  11. Entropic Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caticha, Ariel

    2011-03-01

    In this tutorial we review the essential arguments behing entropic inference. We focus on the epistemological notion of information and its relation to the Bayesian beliefs of rational agents. The problem of updating from a prior to a posterior probability distribution is tackled through an eliminative induction process that singles out the logarithmic relative entropy as the unique tool for inference. The resulting method of Maximum relative Entropy (ME), includes as special cases both MaxEnt and Bayes' rule, and therefore unifies the two themes of these workshops—the Maximum Entropy and the Bayesian methods—into a single general inference scheme.

  12. Distributional Inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroese, A.H.; van der Meulen, E.A.; Poortema, Klaas; Schaafsma, W.

    1995-01-01

    The making of statistical inferences in distributional form is conceptionally complicated because the epistemic 'probabilities' assigned are mixtures of fact and fiction. In this respect they are essentially different from 'physical' or 'frequency-theoretic' probabilities. The distributional form is

  13. Entropic Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Caticha, Ariel

    2010-01-01

    In this tutorial we review the essential arguments behing entropic inference. We focus on the epistemological notion of information and its relation to the Bayesian beliefs of rational agents. The problem of updating from a prior to a posterior probability distribution is tackled through an eliminative induction process that singles out the logarithmic relative entropy as the unique tool for inference. The resulting method of Maximum relative Entropy (ME), includes as special cases both MaxEn...

  14. Biostratigraphic correlation of the western and eastern margins of the Labrador-Baffin Seaway and implications for the regional geology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrik Nøhr-Hansen

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available New analyses of the palynological assemblages in 13 offshore wells on the Canadian margin and six on the West Greenland Margin, in conjunction with onshore data, have led to a new biostratigraphic framework for the Cretaceous–Cenozoic strata of the Labrador Sea – Davis Strait – Baffin Bay (Labrador–Baffin Seaway region and the first broad biostratigraphic correlation of the Canadian and Greenland margins. This framework is based on 167 last occurrences and 18 local/regional peak/common-occurrence events for dinocysts, miospores, fungal spores and Azolla. Detailed biostratigraphic evidence has confirmed the following hiatuses: pre-Aptian in the Hopedale Basin; pre-Albian in the Saglek Basin; Albian–Turonian in some wells of the Hopedale Basin; Turonian–Santonian/Campanian in some areas; pre-Campanian and late Campanian – Thanetian on the Greenland Margin; late Maastrichtian and Danian in some wells of the Hopedale Basin and in the Saglek Basin; Selandian in part of the Hopedale Basin, in all the Saglek Basin wells and in two wells on the West Greenland Margin; late Ypresian and/or Lutetian on both sides; Oligocene to middle Miocene of considerable variability on both margins, with all of the Oligocene and the lower Miocene missing in all the West Greenland Margin wells; and middle to late Miocene on the western side. On the Canadian margin, the hiatuses can be partially matched with the five previously recognised regional unconformities; on the Greenland margin, however, the relationship to the five unconformities is more tenuous. Palynomorph assemblages show that most Aptian to Albian sediments were deposited in generally non-marine to marginal marine settings, interrupted by a short-lived shallow marine episode in the Aptian. A marine transgression started in the Cenomanian–Turonian and led to the most open-marine, oceanic conditions in the Campanian–Lutetian; shallowing probably started in the late Lutetian and continued into

  15. Temperature and salinity profile data collected by bottle on multiple cruises in the Baltic Sea, Baffin Bay, Davis Strait, the North Atlantic Ocean, and the North Sea from 02 January 1985 to 13 November 1989 (NODC Accession 0000056)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile and nutrients data were collected using bottle casts from DANA and other platforms in Baffin Sea, Baltic Sea, Davis Strait, North Sea, and North...

  16. Perceptual inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggelopoulos, Nikolaos C

    2015-08-01

    Perceptual inference refers to the ability to infer sensory stimuli from predictions that result from internal neural representations built through prior experience. Methods of Bayesian statistical inference and decision theory model cognition adequately by using error sensing either in guiding action or in "generative" models that predict the sensory information. In this framework, perception can be seen as a process qualitatively distinct from sensation, a process of information evaluation using previously acquired and stored representations (memories) that is guided by sensory feedback. The stored representations can be utilised as internal models of sensory stimuli enabling long term associations, for example in operant conditioning. Evidence for perceptual inference is contributed by such phenomena as the cortical co-localisation of object perception with object memory, the response invariance in the responses of some neurons to variations in the stimulus, as well as from situations in which perception can be dissociated from sensation. In the context of perceptual inference, sensory areas of the cerebral cortex that have been facilitated by a priming signal may be regarded as comparators in a closed feedback loop, similar to the better known motor reflexes in the sensorimotor system. The adult cerebral cortex can be regarded as similar to a servomechanism, in using sensory feedback to correct internal models, producing predictions of the outside world on the basis of past experience. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Modelling hourly dissolved oxygen concentration (DO) using dynamic evolving neural-fuzzy inference system (DENFIS)-based approach: case study of Klamath River at Miller Island Boat Ramp, OR, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heddam, Salim

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we present application of an artificial intelligence (AI) technique model called dynamic evolving neural-fuzzy inference system (DENFIS) based on an evolving clustering method (ECM), for modelling dissolved oxygen concentration in a river. To demonstrate the forecasting capability of DENFIS, a one year period from 1 January 2009 to 30 December 2009, of hourly experimental water quality data collected by the United States Geological Survey (USGS Station No: 420853121505500) station at Klamath River at Miller Island Boat Ramp, OR, USA, were used for model development. Two DENFIS-based models are presented and compared. The two DENFIS systems are: (1) offline-based system named DENFIS-OF, and (2) online-based system, named DENFIS-ON. The input variables used for the two models are water pH, temperature, specific conductance, and sensor depth. The performances of the models are evaluated using root mean square errors (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Willmott index of agreement (d) and correlation coefficient (CC) statistics. The lowest root mean square error and highest correlation coefficient values were obtained with the DENFIS-ON method. The results obtained with DENFIS models are compared with linear (multiple linear regression, MLR) and nonlinear (multi-layer perceptron neural networks, MLPNN) methods. This study demonstrates that DENFIS-ON investigated herein outperforms all the proposed techniques for DO modelling.

  18. Baseline water-quality sampling to infer nutrient and contaminant sources at Kaloko-Honokōhau National Historical Park, Island of Hawai‘i, 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Charles D.

    2015-01-01

    Baseline water-quality sampling was conducted for dissolved nutrients and for chemical and isotopic tracers at Kaloko-Honokōhau National Historical Park on the Island of Hawai'i. Existing and future urbanization in the surrounding areas have the potential to affect water quality in the Park, and so the National Park Service and the U.S. Geological Survey designed a water-sampling strategy to document baseline conditions against which future changes can be compared. Sites in and near the Park were sampled twice, in July and December 2009, and included four anchialine pools, two large fishponds, five monitoring wells, an upland production well, tap water, and a holding pond for golf-course irrigation water. Water samples within the coastal park were brackish, ranging in salinity from 15 to 67 percent seawater. Samples were analyzed for dissolved inorganic nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus), stable isotopes (nitrogen and oxygen in dissolved nitrate; hydrogen and oxygen in the water molecule), pharmaceuticals, wastewater compounds, and volatile organic compounds. A case of acute, but temporary, fertilizer contamination was evident along the Park's north boundary during the turf grow-in period of a newly constructed golf course. A maximum nitrogen concentration 280 percent above background level was measured in monitoring well MW401 in July, later falling to 109 percent above background by December. Two nearby sites (MW400 and AP 144) had nitrogen concentrations that were elevated compared to remaining sites but less severely than at MW401. Aside from this localized fertilizer influence, other water samples had lower nutrient enrichments: 40 percent or less above background for nitrogen and 57 percent or less above background for phosphorus. Background was defined in this study by a graphical mixing line between saltwater from a deep well in the Park and freshwater at a reference well in the mountainous uplands (Honokōhau production well, at 1,675 ft altitude

  19. The ophiolite of the Eohellenic nappe in the island of Skyros, Greece: Geotectonic environment of formation and metamorphic conditions inferred by mineralogical and geochemical data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karkalis, Christos; Magganas, Andreas; Koutsovitis, Petros

    2014-05-01

    The island of Skyros is located in the Sporades-Aegean region. It includes an ophiolitic mélange sequence consisting of serpentinites, gabbroic and doleritic rocks, and also lavas which mostly appear in massive form, but in rare cases as deformed pillows. The ophiolitic mélange sequence also includes rodingites, ophicalcites, as well as radiolarites. This formation belongs to the Eohellenic tectonic nappe, which encompasses marbles, sandstones and schists and was emplaced onto the Pelagonian Zone during Early Cretaceous [1, 2]. Serpentinites were most likely formed after serpentinization of harzburgitic protoliths and consist of serpentine, bastite, spinel and magnetite. The chemistry of spinels (TiO2=0.14-0.25 wt.%, Al2O3=35.1-35.21 wt.%, Cr#=37.38-38.87), shows that the harzburgitic protoliths plausibly resemble back-arc basin peridotites [3]. Gabbros and dolerites present mostly subophitic textures, between the hornblende/clinopyroxene and plagioclase grains. Based upon their petrography and on their mineral chemistry hornblendes have been distinguished into magmatic and metamorphic hornblendes, with the first occurring mostly in gabbroic rocks. Magmatic hornblendes exhibit relatively high TiO2 (1.42-1.62 wt.%), Al2O3 (5.11-5.86 wt.%) and Na2O (1.01-1.09 wt.%) contents, with their presence implying that the magma was at least to some degree hydrous. Lavas are tholeiitic basalts with relatively high FeOt≡12 wt.% and low K2O and Th contents, consisting mostly albite, altered clinopyroxene and devitrified glass. Tectonomagmatic discrimination diagrams [4, 5] illustrate that the studied gabbros and lavas of Skyros are most likely associated with SSZ processes. Gabbroic rocks, subvolcanic dolerites and lavas have been subjected to greenschist/subgreenschist metamorphic processes, as confirmed by the presence of secondary amphiboles (metamorphic hornblende, actinolite/tremolite), epidote, pumpellyite and chlorite in all of the studied samples. On the other hand

  20. Statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Rohatgi, Vijay K

    2003-01-01

    Unified treatment of probability and statistics examines and analyzes the relationship between the two fields, exploring inferential issues. Numerous problems, examples, and diagrams--some with solutions--plus clear-cut, highlighted summaries of results. Advanced undergraduate to graduate level. Contents: 1. Introduction. 2. Probability Model. 3. Probability Distributions. 4. Introduction to Statistical Inference. 5. More on Mathematical Expectation. 6. Some Discrete Models. 7. Some Continuous Models. 8. Functions of Random Variables and Random Vectors. 9. Large-Sample Theory. 10. General Meth

  1. Resource utilisation by deep-sea megabenthos in the Canadian High Arctic (Baffin Bay and Parry Channel)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourgeois, Solveig; Witte, Ursula; Harrison, Ailish M.; Makela, Anni; Kazanidis, Georgios; Archambault, Philippe

    2016-04-01

    Ongoing climate change in the Arctic is causing drastic alteration of the Arctic marine ecosystem functioning, such as shifts in patterns of primary production, and modifying the present tight pelagic-benthic coupling. Subsequently benthic communities, which rely upon organic matter produced in the top layers of the Ocean, will also be affected by these changes. The benthic megafaunal communities play a significant role in ecological processes and ecosystem functioning (i.e. organic matter recycling, bioturbation, food source for the higher trophic levels…). Yet, information is scarce regarding the main food sources for dominant benthic organisms, and therefore the impact of the ongoing changes is difficult to assess. The goal of this study is to investigate the preferential feeding of different carbon sources by megabenthic organisms in the Canadian High Arctic and to identify environmental drivers which explain the observed trends. In summer 2013, benthic megafauna was collected at 9 stations spread along latitudinal (58 to 81°N) and longitudinal (62 to 114°W) transects in the Baffin Bay and Parry Channel, respectively. Carbon and nitrogen bulk stable isotope analyses (δ13C and δ15N) were performed on several species divided into groups according to their feeding type. This study highlights distinct trends in δ13C values of benthic organisms suggesting the importance of both phytoplankton and ice algae as carbon sources for megafauna in the Canadian High Arctic. The importance of physical and biological parameters as drivers of food web structure will be furthermore discussed.

  2. Heat Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's Heat Island Effect Site provides information on heat islands, their impacts, mitigation strategies, related research, a directory of heat island reduction initiatives in U.S. communities, and EPA's Heat Island Reduction Program.

  3. Island biogeography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Whittaker, Robert James; Fernández-Palacios, José María; Matthews, Thomas J.

    2017-01-01

    Islands provide classic model biological systems. We review how growing appreciation of geoenvironmental dynamics of marine islands has led to advances in island biogeographic theory accommodating both evolutionary and ecological phenomena. Recognition of distinct island geodynamics permits gener...

  4. A Comparison of the Crustal Deformation Predicted by Glacial Isostatic Adjustment to Seismicity in the Baffin Region of Northern Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, T. S.; Schamehorn, T.; Bent, A. L.; Allen, T. I.; Mulder, T.; Simon, K.

    2016-12-01

    The horizontal crustal strain-rates induced by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in northern Canada and western Greenland region are compared to the spatial pattern of seismicity. For the comparison, an updated seismicity catalogue was created from the 2010 version of the NRCan Seismic Hazard Earthquake Epicentre File (SHEEF2010) catalogue and the Greenland Ice Sheet Monitoring Network (GLISN) catalogue of the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS). Crustal motion rates were computed with the Innu/Laur16 ice-sheet history and the VM5a viscosity profile (Simon et al., 2015; 2016). This GIA model optimizes the fit to relative sea-level and vertical crustal motion measurements around Hudson Bay and in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). A region in Baffin Bay with historically high seismicity, including the 1933 M 7.4 and the 1934 and 1945 M 6.5 earthquakes, features high predicted GIA strain-rates. Elsewhere, agreement is not strong, with zones of seismicity occurring where predicted horizontal crustal strain-rates are small and large crustal strain-rates predicted where earthquake occurrence is muted. For example, large compressional crustal strain-rates are predicted beneath seismically quiescent portions of the Greenland ice sheet. Similarly, large predicted extensional strain-rates occur around southern Hudson Bay and the Foxe Basin, which are also regions of relative seismic quiescence. Additional factors to be considered include the orientation of the background stress field, relative to the predicted stress changes, and potential pre-existing zones of lithospheric weakness.

  5. Vertical and horizontal distribution of zooplankton and polar cod in southern Baffin Bay (66-71°N) in September 2009

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjellerup, Sanne; Dünweber, Michael; Møller, Eva Friis

    2015-01-01

    Zooplankton are the link connecting primary producers to higher trophic levels, and knowing their distribution and community is important for predicting the distribution of predator species, like fish, seabirds, and marine mammals. However, data from open Arctic oceans are still scarce. In autumn...... fishes in the upper 500 m of southern Baffin Bay in September 2009. The zooplankton community was dominated by copepods (55 % of abundance in the upper 500 m), primarily of the genus Calanus. Other important zooplankton taxa included Limacina helicina, Chaetognatha, and Cirripedia nauplii...

  6. Canary Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-01-01

    This easterly looking view shows the seven major volcanic islands of the Canary Island chain (28.0N, 16.5W) and offers a unique view of the islands that have become a frequent vacation spot for Europeans. The northwest coastline of Africa, (Morocco and Western Sahara), is visible in the background. Frequently, these islands create an impact on local weather (cloud formations) and ocean currents (island wakes) as seen in this photo.

  7. Biostratigraphic correlation of the western and eastern margins of the Labrador–Baffin Seaway and implications for the regional geology. Appendix 3

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrik Nøhr-Hansen

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available New analyses of the palynological assemblages in 13 offshore wells on the Canadian margin and six on the West Greenland Margin, in conjunction with onshore data, have led to a new biostratigraphic framework for the Cretaceous–Cenozoic strata of the Labrador Sea – Davis Strait – Baffin Bay (Labrador–Baffin Seaway region and the first broad biostratigraphic correlation of the Canadian and Greenland margins. This framework is based on 167 last occurrences and 18 local/regional peak/common-occurrence events for dinocysts, miospores, fungal spores and Azolla. Detailed biostratigraphic evidence has confirmed the following hiatuses: pre-Aptian in the Hopedale Basin; pre-Albian in the Saglek Basin; Albian–Turonian in some wells of the Hopedale Basin; Turonian–Santonian/Campanian in some areas; pre-Campanian and late Campanian – Thanetian on the Greenland Margin; late Maastrichtian and Danian in some wells of the Hopedale Basin and in the Saglek Basin; Selandian in part of the Hopedale Basin, in all the Saglek Basin wells and in two wells on the West Greenland Margin; late Ypresian and/or Lutetian on both sides; Oligocene to middle Miocene of considerable variability on both margins, with all of the Oligocene and the lower Miocene missing in all the West Greenland Margin wells; and middle to late Miocene on the western side. On the Canadian margin, the hiatuses can be partially matched with the five previously recognised regional unconformities; on the Greenland margin, however, the relationship to the five unconformities is more tenuous. Palynomorph assemblages show that most Aptian to Albian sediments were deposited in generally non-marine to marginal marine settings, interrupted by a short-lived shallow marine episode in the Aptian. A marine transgression started in the Cenomanian–Turonian and led to the most open-marine, oceanic conditions in the Campanian–Lutetian; shallowing probably started in the late Lutetian and continued into

  8. Biostratigraphic correlation of the western and eastern margins of the Labrador–Baffin Seaway and implications for the regional geology. Fig. 5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrik Nøhr-Hansen

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available New analyses of the palynological assemblages in 13 offshore wells on the Canadian margin and six on the West Greenland Margin, in conjunction with onshore data, have led to a new biostratigraphic framework for the Cretaceous–Cenozoic strata of the Labrador Sea – Davis Strait – Baffin Bay (Labrador–Baffin Seaway region and the first broad biostratigraphic correlation of the Canadian and Greenland margins. This framework is based on 167 last occurrences and 18 local/regional peak/common-occurrence events for dinocysts, miospores, fungal spores and Azolla. Detailed biostratigraphic evidence has confirmed the following hiatuses: pre-Aptian in the Hopedale Basin; pre-Albian in the Saglek Basin; Albian–Turonian in some wells of the Hopedale Basin; Turonian–Santonian/Campanian in some areas; pre-Campanian and late Campanian – Thanetian on the Greenland Margin; late Maastrichtian and Danian in some wells of the Hopedale Basin and in the Saglek Basin; Selandian in part of the Hopedale Basin, in all the Saglek Basin wells and in two wells on the West Greenland Margin; late Ypresian and/or Lutetian on both sides; Oligocene to middle Miocene of considerable variability on both margins, with all of the Oligocene and the lower Miocene missing in all the West Greenland Margin wells; and middle to late Miocene on the western side. On the Canadian margin, the hiatuses can be partially matched with the five previously recognised regional unconformities; on the Greenland margin, however, the relationship to the five unconformities is more tenuous. Palynomorph assemblages show that most Aptian to Albian sediments were deposited in generally non-marine to marginal marine settings, interrupted by a short-lived shallow marine episode in the Aptian. A marine transgression started in the Cenomanian–Turonian and led to the most open-marine, oceanic conditions in the Campanian–Lutetian; shallowing probably started in the late Lutetian and continued into

  9. Spatial and temporal variability of seawater pCO2 within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Baffin Bay during the summer and autumn 2011

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geilfus, N.-X.; Pind, M. L.; Else, B. G. T.

    2018-01-01

    The partial pressure of CO2 in surface water (pCO2sw) measured within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) and Baffin Bay was highly variable with values ranging from strongly undersaturated (118 μatm) to slightly supersaturated (419 μatm) with respect to the atmospheric levels ( 386 μatm) during...... summer and autumn 2011. During summer, melting sea ice contributed to cold and fresh surface water and enhanced the ice-edge bloom, resulting in strong pCO2sw undersaturation. Coronation Gulf was the only area with supersaturated pCO2sw, likely due to warm CO2-enriched freshwater input from...... the Coppermine River. During autumn, the entire CAA (including Coronation Gulf) was undersaturated, despite generally increasing pCO2sw. Coronation Gulf was the one place where pCO2sw decreased, likely due to seasonal reduction in discharge from the Coppermine River and the decreasing sea surface temperature...

  10. Spatial and temporal variability of seawater pCO2 within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Baffin Bay during the summer and autumn 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geilfus, N.-X.; Pind, M. L.; Else, B. G. T.; Galley, R. J.; Miller, L. A.; Thomas, H.; Gosselin, M.; Rysgaard, S.; Wang, F.; Papakyriakou, T. N.

    2018-03-01

    The partial pressure of CO2 in surface water (pCO2sw) measured within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) and Baffin Bay was highly variable with values ranging from strongly undersaturated (118 μatm) to slightly supersaturated (419 μatm) with respect to the atmospheric levels ( 386 μatm) during summer and autumn 2011. During summer, melting sea ice contributed to cold and fresh surface water and enhanced the ice-edge bloom, resulting in strong pCO2sw undersaturation. Coronation Gulf was the only area with supersaturated pCO2sw, likely due to warm CO2-enriched freshwater input from the Coppermine River. During autumn, the entire CAA (including Coronation Gulf) was undersaturated, despite generally increasing pCO2sw. Coronation Gulf was the one place where pCO2sw decreased, likely due to seasonal reduction in discharge from the Coppermine River and the decreasing sea surface temperature. The seasonal summer-to-autumn increase in pCO2sw across the archipelago is attributed in part to the continuous uptake of atmospheric CO2 through both summer and autumn and to the seasonal deepening of the surface mixed layer, bringing CO2-rich waters to the surface. These observations demonstrate how freshwater from sea ice melt and rivers affect pCO2sw differently. The general pCO2sw undersaturation during summer-autumn 2011 throughout the CAA and Baffin Bay give an estimated net oceanic sink for atmospheric CO2 over the study period of 11.4 mmol CO2 m-2 d-1, assuming no sea-air CO2 flux exchange across the sea-ice covered areas.

  11. Partial pressure (or fugacity) of carbon dioxide and other variables collected from Surface underway observations using Carbon dioxide (CO2) gas analyzer, Shower head chamber equilibrator for autonomous carbon dioxide (CO2) measurement and other instruments from NUKA ARCTICA in the Baffin Bay, Davis Strait and others from 2013-02-01 to 2013-12-31 (NCEI Accession 0157395)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NCEI Accession 0157395 includes Surface underway, chemical and physical data collected from NUKA ARCTICA in the Baffin Bay, Davis Strait, Kattegat, The Sound, Great...

  12. Dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, temperature, salinity and other variables collected from discrete sample and profile observations using CTD, bottle and other instruments from the HEALY in the Baffin Bay and Lincoln Sea from 2003-07-21 to 2003-08-16 (NODC Accession 0113909)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NODC Accession 0113909 includes chemical, discrete sample, physical and profile data collected from HEALY in the Baffin Bay and Lincoln Sea from 2003-07-21 to...

  13. Dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, temperature, salinity and other variables collected from discrete sample and profile observations using CTD, bottle and other instruments from the LOUIS S. ST. LAURENT in the Baffin Bay, Davis Strait and others from 1997-08-03 to 1997-08-18 (NODC Accession 0114432)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NODC Accession 0114432 includes chemical, discrete sample, physical and profile data collected from LOUIS S. ST. LAURENT in the Baffin Bay, Davis Strait, Hudson...

  14. Dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, temperature, salinity and other variables collected from discrete sample and profile observations using CTD, bottle and other instruments from the PIERRE RADISSON in the Baffin Bay and Davis Strait from 1999-08-27 to 1999-10-10 (NODC Accession 0113986)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NODC Accession 0113986 includes chemical, discrete sample, physical and profile data collected from PIERRE RADISSON in the Baffin Bay and Davis Strait from...

  15. Dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, temperature, salinity and other variables collected from discrete sample and profile observations using CTD, bottle and other instruments from the PIERRE RADISSON in the Baffin Bay from 1998-04-04 to 1998-07-21 (NODC Accession 0113915)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NODC Accession 0113915 includes biological, chemical, discrete sample, physical and profile data collected from PIERRE RADISSON in the Baffin Bay from 1998-04-04 to...

  16. SEMANTIC PATCH INFERENCE

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper

    2009-01-01

    Collateral evolution the problem of updating several library-using programs in response to API changes in the used library. In this dissertation we address the issue of understanding collateral evolutions by automatically inferring a high-level specification of the changes evident in a given set ...... specifications inferred by spdiff in Linux are shown. We find that the inferred specifications concisely capture the actual collateral evolution performed in the examples....

  17. Inference in `poor` languages

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petrov, S.

    1996-10-01

    Languages with a solvable implication problem but without complete and consistent systems of inference rules (`poor` languages) are considered. The problem of existence of finite complete and consistent inference rule system for a ``poor`` language is stated independently of the language or rules syntax. Several properties of the problem arc proved. An application of results to the language of join dependencies is given.

  18. Bayesian statistical inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno De Finetti

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This work was translated into English and published in the volume: Bruno De Finetti, Induction and Probability, Biblioteca di Statistica, eds. P. Monari, D. Cocchi, Clueb, Bologna, 1993.Bayesian statistical Inference is one of the last fundamental philosophical papers in which we can find the essential De Finetti's approach to the statistical inference.

  19. Geometric statistical inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Periwal, Vipul

    1999-01-01

    A reparametrization-covariant formulation of the inverse problem of probability is explicitly solved for finite sample sizes. The inferred distribution is explicitly continuous for finite sample size. A geometric solution of the statistical inference problem in higher dimensions is outlined

  20. Practical Bayesian Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailer-Jones, Coryn A. L.

    2017-04-01

    Preface; 1. Probability basics; 2. Estimation and uncertainty; 3. Statistical models and inference; 4. Linear models, least squares, and maximum likelihood; 5. Parameter estimation: single parameter; 6. Parameter estimation: multiple parameters; 7. Approximating distributions; 8. Monte Carlo methods for inference; 9. Parameter estimation: Markov chain Monte Carlo; 10. Frequentist hypothesis testing; 11. Model comparison; 12. Dealing with more complicated problems; References; Index.

  1. Marshall Islands

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2015-01-01

    This note aims to build understanding of the existing disaster risk financing and insurance (DRFI) tools in use in The Marshall Islands and to identify gaps where potential engagement could further develop financial resilience. The likelihood that a hazardous event will have a significant impact on the Marshall Islands has risen with the increasing levels of population and assets in the urban ...

  2. Global patterns and drivers of phylogenetic structure in island floras

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weigelt, P.; Kissling, W.D.; Kisel, Y.; Fritz, S.A.; Karger, D.N.; Kessler, A.; Lehtonen, S.; Svenning, J.-C.; Kreft, H.

    2015-01-01

    Islands are ideal for investigating processes that shape species assemblages because they are isolated and have discrete boundaries. Quantifying phylogenetic assemblage structure allows inferences about these processes, in particular dispersal, environmental filtering and in-situ speciation. Here,

  3. Knowledge and inference

    CERN Document Server

    Nagao, Makoto

    1990-01-01

    Knowledge and Inference discusses an important problem for software systems: How do we treat knowledge and ideas on a computer and how do we use inference to solve problems on a computer? The book talks about the problems of knowledge and inference for the purpose of merging artificial intelligence and library science. The book begins by clarifying the concept of """"knowledge"""" from many points of view, followed by a chapter on the current state of library science and the place of artificial intelligence in library science. Subsequent chapters cover central topics in the artificial intellig

  4. Logical inference and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perey, F.G.

    1981-01-01

    Most methodologies of evaluation currently used are based upon the theory of statistical inference. It is generally perceived that this theory is not capable of dealing satisfactorily with what are called systematic errors. Theories of logical inference should be capable of treating all of the information available, including that not involving frequency data. A theory of logical inference is presented as an extension of deductive logic via the concept of plausibility and the application of group theory. Some conclusions, based upon the application of this theory to evaluation of data, are also given

  5. Probability and Statistical Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Prosper, Harrison B.

    2006-01-01

    These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.

  6. On quantum statistical inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, O.E.; Gill, R.D.; Jupp, P.E.

    2003-01-01

    Interest in problems of statistical inference connected to measurements of quantum systems has recently increased substantially, in step with dramatic new developments in experimental techniques for studying small quantum systems. Furthermore, developments in the theory of quantum measurements have

  7. INFERENCE BUILDING BLOCKS

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-02-15

    expressed a variety of inference techniques on discrete and continuous distributions: exact inference, importance sampling, Metropolis-Hastings (MH...without redoing any math or rewriting any code. And although our main goal is composable reuse, our performance is also good because we can use...control paths. • The Hakaru language can express mixtures of discrete and continuous distributions, but the current disintegration transformation

  8. Introductory statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Mukhopadhyay, Nitis

    2014-01-01

    This gracefully organized text reveals the rigorous theory of probability and statistical inference in the style of a tutorial, using worked examples, exercises, figures, tables, and computer simulations to develop and illustrate concepts. Drills and boxed summaries emphasize and reinforce important ideas and special techniques.Beginning with a review of the basic concepts and methods in probability theory, moments, and moment generating functions, the author moves to more intricate topics. Introductory Statistical Inference studies multivariate random variables, exponential families of dist

  9. Type Inference with Inequalities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwartzbach, Michael Ignatieff

    1991-01-01

    of (monotonic) inequalities on the types of variables and expressions. A general result about systems of inequalities over semilattices yields a solvable form. We distinguish between deciding typability (the existence of solutions) and type inference (the computation of a minimal solution). In our case, both......Type inference can be phrased as constraint-solving over types. We consider an implicitly typed language equipped with recursive types, multiple inheritance, 1st order parametric polymorphism, and assignments. Type correctness is expressed as satisfiability of a possibly infinite collection...

  10. Inference as Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Jane

    2007-01-01

    Inference, or decision making, is seen in curriculum documents as the final step in a statistical investigation. For a formal statistical enquiry this may be associated with sophisticated tests involving probability distributions. For young students without the mathematical background to perform such tests, it is still possible to draw informal…

  11. Hybrid Optical Inference Machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-09-27

    with labels. Now, events. a set of facts cal be generated in the dyadic form "u, R 1,2" Eichmann and Caulfield (19] consider the same type of and can...these enceding-schemes. These architectures are-based pri- 19. G. Eichmann and H. J. Caulfield, "Optical Learning (Inference)marily on optical inner

  12. Class renormalization: islands around islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meiss, J.D.

    1986-01-01

    An orbit of 'class' is one that rotates about a periodic orbit of one lower class with definite frequency. This contrasts to the 'level' of a periodic orbit which is the number of elements in its continued fraction expansion. Level renormalization is conventionally used to study the structure of quasi-periodic orbits. The scaling structure of periodic orbits encircling other periodic orbits in area preserving maps is discussed here. Fixed points corresponding to the accumulation of p/q bifurcations are found and scaling exponents determined. Fixed points for q > 2 correspond to self-similar islands around islands. Frequencies of the island boundary circles at the fixed points are obtained. Importance of this scaling for the motion of particles in stochastic regions is emphasized. (author)

  13. Inference rule and problem solving

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goto, S

    1982-04-01

    Intelligent information processing signifies an opportunity of having man's intellectual activity executed on the computer, in which inference, in place of ordinary calculation, is used as the basic operational mechanism for such an information processing. Many inference rules are derived from syllogisms in formal logic. The problem of programming this inference function is referred to as a problem solving. Although logically inference and problem-solving are in close relation, the calculation ability of current computers is on a low level for inferring. For clarifying the relation between inference and computers, nonmonotonic logic has been considered. The paper deals with the above topics. 16 references.

  14. Stochastic processes inference theory

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, Malempati M

    2014-01-01

    This is the revised and enlarged 2nd edition of the authors’ original text, which was intended to be a modest complement to Grenander's fundamental memoir on stochastic processes and related inference theory. The present volume gives a substantial account of regression analysis, both for stochastic processes and measures, and includes recent material on Ridge regression with some unexpected applications, for example in econometrics. The first three chapters can be used for a quarter or semester graduate course on inference on stochastic processes. The remaining chapters provide more advanced material on stochastic analysis suitable for graduate seminars and discussions, leading to dissertation or research work. In general, the book will be of interest to researchers in probability theory, mathematical statistics and electrical and information theory.

  15. Making Type Inference Practical

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwartzbach, Michael Ignatieff; Oxhøj, Nicholas; Palsberg, Jens

    1992-01-01

    We present the implementation of a type inference algorithm for untyped object-oriented programs with inheritance, assignments, and late binding. The algorithm significantly improves our previous one, presented at OOPSLA'91, since it can handle collection classes, such as List, in a useful way. Abo......, the complexity has been dramatically improved, from exponential time to low polynomial time. The implementation uses the techniques of incremental graph construction and constraint template instantiation to avoid representing intermediate results, doing superfluous work, and recomputing type information....... Experiments indicate that the implementation type checks as much as 100 lines pr. second. This results in a mature product, on which a number of tools can be based, for example a safety tool, an image compression tool, a code optimization tool, and an annotation tool. This may make type inference for object...

  16. Russell and Humean Inferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Paulo Monteiro

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available Russell's The Problems of Philosophy tries to establish a new theory of induction, at the same time that Hume is there accused of an irrational/ scepticism about induction". But a careful analysis of the theory of knowledge explicitly acknowledged by Hume reveals that, contrary to the standard interpretation in the XXth century, possibly influenced by Russell, Hume deals exclusively with causal inference (which he never classifies as "causal induction", although now we are entitled to do so, never with inductive inference in general, mainly generalizations about sensible qualities of objects ( whether, e.g., "all crows are black" or not is not among Hume's concerns. Russell's theories are thus only false alternatives to Hume's, in (1912 or in his (1948.

  17. Causal inference in econometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

    2016-01-01

    This book is devoted to the analysis of causal inference which is one of the most difficult tasks in data analysis: when two phenomena are observed to be related, it is often difficult to decide whether one of them causally influences the other one, or whether these two phenomena have a common cause. This analysis is the main focus of this volume. To get a good understanding of the causal inference, it is important to have models of economic phenomena which are as accurate as possible. Because of this need, this volume also contains papers that use non-traditional economic models, such as fuzzy models and models obtained by using neural networks and data mining techniques. It also contains papers that apply different econometric models to analyze real-life economic dependencies.

  18. Active inference and learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, Karl; FitzGerald, Thomas; Rigoli, Francesco; Schwartenbeck, Philipp; O Doherty, John; Pezzulo, Giovanni

    2016-09-01

    This paper offers an active inference account of choice behaviour and learning. It focuses on the distinction between goal-directed and habitual behaviour and how they contextualise each other. We show that habits emerge naturally (and autodidactically) from sequential policy optimisation when agents are equipped with state-action policies. In active inference, behaviour has explorative (epistemic) and exploitative (pragmatic) aspects that are sensitive to ambiguity and risk respectively, where epistemic (ambiguity-resolving) behaviour enables pragmatic (reward-seeking) behaviour and the subsequent emergence of habits. Although goal-directed and habitual policies are usually associated with model-based and model-free schemes, we find the more important distinction is between belief-free and belief-based schemes. The underlying (variational) belief updating provides a comprehensive (if metaphorical) process theory for several phenomena, including the transfer of dopamine responses, reversal learning, habit formation and devaluation. Finally, we show that active inference reduces to a classical (Bellman) scheme, in the absence of ambiguity. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  19. Learning Convex Inference of Marginals

    OpenAIRE

    Domke, Justin

    2012-01-01

    Graphical models trained using maximum likelihood are a common tool for probabilistic inference of marginal distributions. However, this approach suffers difficulties when either the inference process or the model is approximate. In this paper, the inference process is first defined to be the minimization of a convex function, inspired by free energy approximations. Learning is then done directly in terms of the performance of the inference process at univariate marginal prediction. The main ...

  20. Probabilistic inductive inference: a survey

    OpenAIRE

    Ambainis, Andris

    2001-01-01

    Inductive inference is a recursion-theoretic theory of learning, first developed by E. M. Gold (1967). This paper surveys developments in probabilistic inductive inference. We mainly focus on finite inference of recursive functions, since this simple paradigm has produced the most interesting (and most complex) results.

  1. Multimodel inference and adaptive management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehme, S.E.; Powell, L.A.; Allen, Craig R.

    2011-01-01

    Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study’s inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference.

  2. Nonparametric statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Gibbons, Jean Dickinson

    2010-01-01

    Overall, this remains a very fine book suitable for a graduate-level course in nonparametric statistics. I recommend it for all people interested in learning the basic ideas of nonparametric statistical inference.-Eugenia Stoimenova, Journal of Applied Statistics, June 2012… one of the best books available for a graduate (or advanced undergraduate) text for a theory course on nonparametric statistics. … a very well-written and organized book on nonparametric statistics, especially useful and recommended for teachers and graduate students.-Biometrics, 67, September 2011This excellently presente

  3. Emotional inferences by pragmatics

    OpenAIRE

    Iza-Miqueleiz, Mauricio

    2017-01-01

    It has for long been taken for granted that, along the course of reading a text, world knowledge is often required in order to establish coherent links between sentences (McKoon & Ratcliff 1992, Iza & Ezquerro 2000). The content grasped from a text turns out to be strongly dependent upon the reader’s additional knowledge that allows a coherent interpretation of the text as a whole. The world knowledge directing the inference may be of distinctive nature. Gygax et al. (2007) showed that m...

  4. Generic patch inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper; Lawall, Julia

    2010-01-01

    A key issue in maintaining Linux device drivers is the need to keep them up to date with respect to evolutions in Linux internal libraries. Currently, there is little tool support for performing and documenting such changes. In this paper we present a tool, spdiff, that identifies common changes...... developers can use it to extract an abstract representation of the set of changes that others have made. Our experiments on recent changes in Linux show that the inferred generic patches are more concise than the corresponding patches found in commits to the Linux source tree while being safe with respect...

  5. Thermal structure and flow patterns around Seychelles group of Islands (Indian Ocean) during austral autumn

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vethamony, P.; RameshBabu, V.; RameshKumar, M.R.

    Properties of thermal structure in the upper 750 m around the Seychelles group of islands in the Indian Ocean, based on Expendable Bathythermograph (XBT) data collected in March 1984, are presented along with the inferred flow patterns...

  6. Tenarife Island, Canary Island Archipelago, Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    Tenarife Island is one of the most volcanically active of the Canary Island archipelago, Atlantic Ocean, just off the NW coast of Africa, (28.5N, 16.5W). The old central caldera, nearly filled in by successive volcanic activity culminating in two stratocones. From those two peaks, a line of smaller cinder cones extend to the point of the island. Extensive gullies dissect the west side of the island and some forests still remain on the east side.

  7. Control of paleoshorelines by trench forebulge uplift, Loyalty Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, William R.

    2013-07-01

    Unlike most tropical Pacific islands, which lie along island arcs or hotspot chains, the Loyalty Islands between New Caledonia and Vanuatu owe their existence and morphology to the uplift of pre-existing atolls on the flexural forebulge of the New Hebrides Trench. The configuration and topography of each island is a function of distance from the crest of the uplifted forebulge. Both Maré and Lifou are fully emergent paleoatolls upon which ancient barrier reefs form highstanding annular ridges that enclose interior plateaus representing paleolagoon floors, whereas the partially emergent Ouvea paleoatoll rim flanks a drowned remnant lagoon. Emergent paleoshoreline features exposed by island uplift include paleoreef flats constructed as ancient fringing reefs built to past low tide levels and emergent tidal notches incised at past high tide levels. Present paleoshoreline elevations record uplift rates of the islands since last-interglacial and mid-Holocene highstands in global and regional sea levels, respectively, and paleoreef stratigraphy reflects net Quaternary island emergence. The empirical uplift rates vary in harmony with theoretical uplift rates inferred from the different positions of the islands in transit across the trench forebulge at the trench subduction rate. The Loyalty Islands provide a case study of island environments controlled primarily by neotectonics.

  8. Feature Inference Learning and Eyetracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehder, Bob; Colner, Robert M.; Hoffman, Aaron B.

    2009-01-01

    Besides traditional supervised classification learning, people can learn categories by inferring the missing features of category members. It has been proposed that feature inference learning promotes learning a category's internal structure (e.g., its typical features and interfeature correlations) whereas classification promotes the learning of…

  9. An Inference Language for Imaging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedemonte, Stefano; Catana, Ciprian; Van Leemput, Koen

    2014-01-01

    We introduce iLang, a language and software framework for probabilistic inference. The iLang framework enables the definition of directed and undirected probabilistic graphical models and the automated synthesis of high performance inference algorithms for imaging applications. The iLang framewor...

  10. Gauging Variational Inference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chertkov, Michael [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Ahn, Sungsoo [Korea Advanced Inst. Science and Technology (KAIST), Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Shin, Jinwoo [Korea Advanced Inst. Science and Technology (KAIST), Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-05-25

    Computing partition function is the most important statistical inference task arising in applications of Graphical Models (GM). Since it is computationally intractable, approximate methods have been used to resolve the issue in practice, where meanfield (MF) and belief propagation (BP) are arguably the most popular and successful approaches of a variational type. In this paper, we propose two new variational schemes, coined Gauged-MF (G-MF) and Gauged-BP (G-BP), improving MF and BP, respectively. Both provide lower bounds for the partition function by utilizing the so-called gauge transformation which modifies factors of GM while keeping the partition function invariant. Moreover, we prove that both G-MF and G-BP are exact for GMs with a single loop of a special structure, even though the bare MF and BP perform badly in this case. Our extensive experiments, on complete GMs of relatively small size and on large GM (up-to 300 variables) confirm that the newly proposed algorithms outperform and generalize MF and BP.

  11. Social Inference Through Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oulasvirta, Antti

    Awareness cues are computer-mediated, real-time indicators of people’s undertakings, whereabouts, and intentions. Already in the mid-1970 s, UNIX users could use commands such as “finger” and “talk” to find out who was online and to chat. The small icons in instant messaging (IM) applications that indicate coconversants’ presence in the discussion space are the successors of “finger” output. Similar indicators can be found in online communities, media-sharing services, Internet relay chat (IRC), and location-based messaging applications. But presence and availability indicators are only the tip of the iceberg. Technological progress has enabled richer, more accurate, and more intimate indicators. For example, there are mobile services that allow friends to query and follow each other’s locations. Remote monitoring systems developed for health care allow relatives and doctors to assess the wellbeing of homebound patients (see, e.g., Tang and Venables 2000). But users also utilize cues that have not been deliberately designed for this purpose. For example, online gamers pay attention to other characters’ behavior to infer what the other players are like “in real life.” There is a common denominator underlying these examples: shared activities rely on the technology’s representation of the remote person. The other human being is not physically present but present only through a narrow technological channel.

  12. Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J Dunn

    Full Text Available We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae, chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum, chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum. The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a

  13. Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, Michael J; Jackson, Jennifer A; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S; Briggs, Dirk R; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M

    2016-01-01

    We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual

  14. Capturing the Petermann Ice Island Flux With the CI2D3 Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, A. J.; Crocker, G.; Mueller, D.; Saper, R.; Desjardins, L.; Carrieres, T.

    2017-12-01

    The Petermann Glacier ice tongue lost >460 km2 of areal extent ( 38 Gt of mass) due to three large calving events in 2008, 2010 and 2012, as well as three previously unrecorded events in 2011 and 2012. Hundreds of ice islands subsequently drifted south between Hall Basin and Newfoundland's Grand Banks, but no systematic data collection or analysis has been conducted for the full flux of fragments prior to the present study. To accomplish this, the Canadian Ice Service's extensive RADARSAT-1 and -2 synthetic aperture radar image archive was mined to create the Canadian Ice Island Drift, Deterioration and Detection (CI2D3) Database. Over 15000 fragments have been digitized in GIS software from 3200 SAR scenes. A unique characteristic of the database is the inclusion of the lineage (i.e., connecting repeat observations or mother-daughter fragments) for all tracked fragments with areas >0.25 km2. This genealogical information was used to isolate ice islands that were about to fracture in order to assess the environmental conditions and morphological characteristics that influence this deterioration mechanism. Fracture counts showed a significant relationship with sea ice concentration (r = -0.56). However, variations in relative thickness played a large role in fracturing likelihood regardless of sea ice conditions. The exceedance probability of the daughter fragment length was calculated, as is often conducted for offshore industry hazard assessment. Grounded ice islands, which are hazards to seafloor installations and disturb benthic ecology, were recognized from their negligible drift speeds and two grounding hot-spots were identified along the Coburg and eastern Baffin island coasts. Petermann ice islands have been noted to drift along specific isobaths due to the influence of bathymetry on ocean currents. 50% of observations occurred between the 100 and 300 m isobaths, and smaller ice islands were observed more frequently in deeper regions. The CI2D3 Database can

  15. Optimization methods for logical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Chandru, Vijay

    2011-01-01

    Merging logic and mathematics in deductive inference-an innovative, cutting-edge approach. Optimization methods for logical inference? Absolutely, say Vijay Chandru and John Hooker, two major contributors to this rapidly expanding field. And even though ""solving logical inference problems with optimization methods may seem a bit like eating sauerkraut with chopsticks. . . it is the mathematical structure of a problem that determines whether an optimization model can help solve it, not the context in which the problem occurs."" Presenting powerful, proven optimization techniques for logic in

  16. Combined crustal-geological cross-section of Ellesmere Island

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stephenson, Randell Alexander; Schiffer, Christian; Oakey, Gordon

    are reported in detail in another presentation at this symposium (Schiffer et al.). Moho depth, a number of intracrustal horizons and sedimentary thicknesses can be inferred. Meanwhile, geological mapping on Ellesmere Island in the framework of BGR’s (Germany) CASE (“Circum-Arctic Structural Events”) programme...

  17. Researching Pacific island livelihoods:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Egelund Christensen, Andreas; Mertz, Ole

    2010-01-01

    on contemporary theories of nissology and conceptual analytical frameworks for island research. Through a review of selected case-study-based island literature on changing livelihoods coming out of the South Pacific, we wish to illustrate and discuss advantages of finding common grounds for small island studies....... The focus is on two dimensions of island livelihood, migration and natural resource management, both of which are significant contributors in making island livelihoods and shaping Pacific seascapes. We argue that there is still a substantial lack of studies targeting small island dynamics that are empirical...

  18. On principles of inductive inference

    OpenAIRE

    Kostecki, Ryszard Paweł

    2011-01-01

    We propose an intersubjective epistemic approach to foundations of probability theory and statistical inference, based on relative entropy and category theory, and aimed to bypass the mathematical and conceptual problems of existing foundational approaches.

  19. Statistical inference via fiducial methods

    OpenAIRE

    Salomé, Diemer

    1998-01-01

    In this thesis the attention is restricted to inductive reasoning using a mathematical probability model. A statistical procedure prescribes, for every theoretically possible set of data, the inference about the unknown of interest. ... Zie: Summary

  20. Statistical inference for stochastic processes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Basawa, Ishwar V; Prakasa Rao, B. L. S

    1980-01-01

    The aim of this monograph is to attempt to reduce the gap between theory and applications in the area of stochastic modelling, by directing the interest of future researchers to the inference aspects...

  1. Active inference, communication and hermeneutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, Karl J; Frith, Christopher D

    2015-07-01

    Hermeneutics refers to interpretation and translation of text (typically ancient scriptures) but also applies to verbal and non-verbal communication. In a psychological setting it nicely frames the problem of inferring the intended content of a communication. In this paper, we offer a solution to the problem of neural hermeneutics based upon active inference. In active inference, action fulfils predictions about how we will behave (e.g., predicting we will speak). Crucially, these predictions can be used to predict both self and others--during speaking and listening respectively. Active inference mandates the suppression of prediction errors by updating an internal model that generates predictions--both at fast timescales (through perceptual inference) and slower timescales (through perceptual learning). If two agents adopt the same model, then--in principle--they can predict each other and minimise their mutual prediction errors. Heuristically, this ensures they are singing from the same hymn sheet. This paper builds upon recent work on active inference and communication to illustrate perceptual learning using simulated birdsongs. Our focus here is the neural hermeneutics implicit in learning, where communication facilitates long-term changes in generative models that are trying to predict each other. In other words, communication induces perceptual learning and enables others to (literally) change our minds and vice versa. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  2. Optimal inference with suboptimal models: Addiction and active Bayesian inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas H.B.; Mathys, Christoph; Dolan, Ray; Wurst, Friedrich; Kronbichler, Martin; Friston, Karl

    2015-01-01

    When casting behaviour as active (Bayesian) inference, optimal inference is defined with respect to an agent’s beliefs – based on its generative model of the world. This contrasts with normative accounts of choice behaviour, in which optimal actions are considered in relation to the true structure of the environment – as opposed to the agent’s beliefs about worldly states (or the task). This distinction shifts an understanding of suboptimal or pathological behaviour away from aberrant inference as such, to understanding the prior beliefs of a subject that cause them to behave less ‘optimally’ than our prior beliefs suggest they should behave. Put simply, suboptimal or pathological behaviour does not speak against understanding behaviour in terms of (Bayes optimal) inference, but rather calls for a more refined understanding of the subject’s generative model upon which their (optimal) Bayesian inference is based. Here, we discuss this fundamental distinction and its implications for understanding optimality, bounded rationality and pathological (choice) behaviour. We illustrate our argument using addictive choice behaviour in a recently described ‘limited offer’ task. Our simulations of pathological choices and addictive behaviour also generate some clear hypotheses, which we hope to pursue in ongoing empirical work. PMID:25561321

  3. Diomede Islands, Bering Straight

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    The Diomede Islands consisting of the western island Big Diomede (also known as Imaqliq, Nunarbuk or Ratmanov Island), and the eastern island Little Diomede (also known as Krusenstern Island or Inaliq), are two rocky islands located in the middle of the Bering Strait between Russia and Alaska. The islands are separated by an international border and the International Date Line which is approximately 1.5 km from each island; you can look from Alaska into tomorrow in Russia. At the closest land approach between the United States, which controls Little Diomede, and Russia, which controls Big Diomede, they are 3 km apart. Little Diomede Island constitutes the Alaskan City of Diomede, while Big Diomede Island is Russia's easternmost point. The first European to reach the islands was the Russian explorer Semyon Dezhnev in 1648. The text of the 1867 treaty finalizing the sale of Alaska uses the islands to designate the border between the two nations. The image was acquired July 8, 2000, covers an area of 13.5 x 10.8 km, and is located at 65.8 degrees north latitude, 169 degrees west longitude. The U.S. science team is located at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. The Terra mission is part of NASA's Science Mission Directorate.

  4. Tales of island tails

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groot, de Alma V.; Oost, Albert P.; Veeneklaas, Roos M.; Lammerts, Evert Jan; Duin, van Willem E.; Wesenbeeck, van Bregje K.

    2016-01-01

    The Frisian islands (Southern North Sea) have extensive island tails, i.e. the entire downdrift side of an island consisting of salt marshes, dunes, beaches and beach plains, and green beaches. Currently, large parts of these tails are ageing and losing dynamics, partly due to human influence.

  5. Rhode Island unemployment

    OpenAIRE

    Leonard Lardaro

    2010-01-01

    How can a state like Rhode Island have such a high unemployment rate? This question has been asked often over the past year, especially since at one point, Rhode Island found itself with the dubious distinction of having the highest unemployment rate in the United States. Following that extreme, Rhode Island seemed to settle into a niche where its rank was third nationally.

  6. Interactive Instruction in Bayesian Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Azam; Breslav, Simon; Hornbæk, Kasper

    2018-01-01

    An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction. These pri......An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction....... These principles concern coherence, personalization, signaling, segmenting, multimedia, spatial contiguity, and pretraining. Principles of self-explanation and interactivity are also applied. Four experiments on the Mammography Problem showed that these principles help participants answer the questions...... that an instructional approach to improving human performance in Bayesian inference is a promising direction....

  7. On Maximum Entropy and Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luigi Gresele

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Maximum entropy is a powerful concept that entails a sharp separation between relevant and irrelevant variables. It is typically invoked in inference, once an assumption is made on what the relevant variables are, in order to estimate a model from data, that affords predictions on all other (dependent variables. Conversely, maximum entropy can be invoked to retrieve the relevant variables (sufficient statistics directly from the data, once a model is identified by Bayesian model selection. We explore this approach in the case of spin models with interactions of arbitrary order, and we discuss how relevant interactions can be inferred. In this perspective, the dimensionality of the inference problem is not set by the number of parameters in the model, but by the frequency distribution of the data. We illustrate the method showing its ability to recover the correct model in a few prototype cases and discuss its application on a real dataset.

  8. Eight challenges in phylodynamic inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon D.W. Frost

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The field of phylodynamics, which attempts to enhance our understanding of infectious disease dynamics using pathogen phylogenies, has made great strides in the past decade. Basic epidemiological and evolutionary models are now well characterized with inferential frameworks in place. However, significant challenges remain in extending phylodynamic inference to more complex systems. These challenges include accounting for evolutionary complexities such as changing mutation rates, selection, reassortment, and recombination, as well as epidemiological complexities such as stochastic population dynamics, host population structure, and different patterns at the within-host and between-host scales. An additional challenge exists in making efficient inferences from an ever increasing corpus of sequence data.

  9. Problem solving and inference mechanisms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Furukawa, K; Nakajima, R; Yonezawa, A; Goto, S; Aoyama, A

    1982-01-01

    The heart of the fifth generation computer will be powerful mechanisms for problem solving and inference. A deduction-oriented language is to be designed, which will form the core of the whole computing system. The language is based on predicate logic with the extended features of structuring facilities, meta structures and relational data base interfaces. Parallel computation mechanisms and specialized hardware architectures are being investigated to make possible efficient realization of the language features. The project includes research into an intelligent programming system, a knowledge representation language and system, and a meta inference system to be built on the core. 30 references.

  10. Paradise Islands? Island States and Environmental Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sverker C. Jagers

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Island states have been shown to outperform continental states on a number of large-scale coordination-related outcomes, such as levels of democracy and institutional quality. The argument developed and tested in this article contends that the same kind of logic may apply to islands’ environmental performance, too. However, the empirical analysis shows mixed results. Among the 105 environmental outcomes that we analyzed, being an island only has a positive impact on 20 of them. For example, island states tend to outcompete continental states with respect to several indicators related to water quality but not in aspects related to biodiversity, protected areas, or environmental regulations. In addition, the causal factors previously suggested to make islands outperform continental states in terms of coordination have weak explanatory power in predicting islands’ environmental performance. We conclude the paper by discussing how these interesting findings can be further explored.

  11. Genetically depauperate in the continent but rich in oceanic islands: Cistus monspeliensis (Cistaceae in the Canary Islands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Fernández-Mazuecos

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Population genetic theory holds that oceanic island populations are expected to have lower levels of genetic variation than their mainland counterparts, due to founder effect after island colonization from the continent. Cistus monspeliensis (Cistaceae is distributed in both the Canary Islands and the Mediterranean region. Numerous phylogenetic results obtained in the last years allow performing further phylogeographic analyses in Cistus. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We analyzed sequences from multiple plastid DNA regions in 47 populations of Cistus monspeliensis from the Canary Islands (21 populations and the Mediterranean basin (26 populations. The time-calibrated phylogeny and phylogeographic analyses yielded the following results: (1 a single, ancestral haplotype is distributed across the Mediterranean, whereas 10 haplotypes in the Canary Islands; (2 four haplotype lineages are present in the Canarian Islands; (3 multiple colonization events across the archipelago are inferred; (4 the earliest split of intraspecific lineages occurred in the Early to Middle Pleistocene (<930,000 years BP. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The contrasting pattern of cpDNA variation is best explained by genetic bottlenecks in the Mediterranean during Quaternary glaciations, while the Canarian archipelago acted as a refugium of high levels of genetic diversity. Active colonization across the Canarian islands is supported not only by the distribution of C. monspeliensis in five of the seven islands, but also by our phylogeographic reconstruction in which unrelated haplotypes are present on the same island. Widespread distribution of thermophilous habitats on every island, as those found throughout the Mediterranean, has likely been responsible for the successful colonization of C. monspeliensis, despite the absence of a long-distance dispersal mechanism. This is the first example of a plant species with higher genetic variation among oceanic island

  12. Object-Oriented Type Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwartzbach, Michael Ignatieff; Palsberg, Jens

    1991-01-01

    We present a new approach to inferring types in untyped object-oriented programs with inheritance, assignments, and late binding. It guarantees that all messages are understood, annotates the program with type information, allows polymorphic methods, and can be used as the basis of an op...

  13. Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....

  14. Mixed normal inference on multicointegration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boswijk, H.P.

    2009-01-01

    Asymptotic likelihood analysis of cointegration in I(2) models, see Johansen (1997, 2006), Boswijk (2000) and Paruolo (2000), has shown that inference on most parameters is mixed normal, implying hypothesis test statistics with an asymptotic 2 null distribution. The asymptotic distribution of the

  15. Statistical inference and Aristotle's Rhetoric.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macdonald, Ranald R

    2004-11-01

    Formal logic operates in a closed system where all the information relevant to any conclusion is present, whereas this is not the case when one reasons about events and states of the world. Pollard and Richardson drew attention to the fact that the reasoning behind statistical tests does not lead to logically justifiable conclusions. In this paper statistical inferences are defended not by logic but by the standards of everyday reasoning. Aristotle invented formal logic, but argued that people mostly get at the truth with the aid of enthymemes--incomplete syllogisms which include arguing from examples, analogies and signs. It is proposed that statistical tests work in the same way--in that they are based on examples, invoke the analogy of a model and use the size of the effect under test as a sign that the chance hypothesis is unlikely. Of existing theories of statistical inference only a weak version of Fisher's takes this into account. Aristotle anticipated Fisher by producing an argument of the form that there were too many cases in which an outcome went in a particular direction for that direction to be plausibly attributed to chance. We can therefore conclude that Aristotle would have approved of statistical inference and there is a good reason for calling this form of statistical inference classical.

  16. Tanzania - Mafia Island Airport

    Data.gov (United States)

    Millennium Challenge Corporation — The evaluation design and subsequent data gathering activities will address the following key research questions: a) Has the Mafia Island Airport Upgrade Project...

  17. Statistical learning and selective inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Jonathan; Tibshirani, Robert J

    2015-06-23

    We describe the problem of "selective inference." This addresses the following challenge: Having mined a set of data to find potential associations, how do we properly assess the strength of these associations? The fact that we have "cherry-picked"--searched for the strongest associations--means that we must set a higher bar for declaring significant the associations that we see. This challenge becomes more important in the era of big data and complex statistical modeling. The cherry tree (dataset) can be very large and the tools for cherry picking (statistical learning methods) are now very sophisticated. We describe some recent new developments in selective inference and illustrate their use in forward stepwise regression, the lasso, and principal components analysis.

  18. Bayesian inference with ecological applications

    CERN Document Server

    Link, William A

    2009-01-01

    This text is written to provide a mathematically sound but accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference specifically for environmental scientists, ecologists and wildlife biologists. It emphasizes the power and usefulness of Bayesian methods in an ecological context. The advent of fast personal computers and easily available software has simplified the use of Bayesian and hierarchical models . One obstacle remains for ecologists and wildlife biologists, namely the near absence of Bayesian texts written specifically for them. The book includes many relevant examples, is supported by software and examples on a companion website and will become an essential grounding in this approach for students and research ecologists. Engagingly written text specifically designed to demystify a complex subject Examples drawn from ecology and wildlife research An essential grounding for graduate and research ecologists in the increasingly prevalent Bayesian approach to inference Companion website with analyt...

  19. Statistical inference an integrated approach

    CERN Document Server

    Migon, Helio S; Louzada, Francisco

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Information The concept of probability Assessing subjective probabilities An example Linear algebra and probability Notation Outline of the bookElements of Inference Common statistical modelsLikelihood-based functions Bayes theorem Exchangeability Sufficiency and exponential family Parameter elimination Prior Distribution Entirely subjective specification Specification through functional forms Conjugacy with the exponential family Non-informative priors Hierarchical priors Estimation Introduction to decision theoryBayesian point estimation Classical point estimation Empirical Bayes estimation Comparison of estimators Interval estimation Estimation in the Normal model Approximating Methods The general problem of inference Optimization techniquesAsymptotic theory Other analytical approximations Numerical integration methods Simulation methods Hypothesis Testing Introduction Classical hypothesis testingBayesian hypothesis testing Hypothesis testing and confidence intervalsAsymptotic tests Prediction...

  20. Bayesian inference on proportional elections.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe Brunello

    Full Text Available Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.

  1. Causal inference based on counterfactuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Höfler M

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The counterfactual or potential outcome model has become increasingly standard for causal inference in epidemiological and medical studies. Discussion This paper provides an overview on the counterfactual and related approaches. A variety of conceptual as well as practical issues when estimating causal effects are reviewed. These include causal interactions, imperfect experiments, adjustment for confounding, time-varying exposures, competing risks and the probability of causation. It is argued that the counterfactual model of causal effects captures the main aspects of causality in health sciences and relates to many statistical procedures. Summary Counterfactuals are the basis of causal inference in medicine and epidemiology. Nevertheless, the estimation of counterfactual differences pose several difficulties, primarily in observational studies. These problems, however, reflect fundamental barriers only when learning from observations, and this does not invalidate the counterfactual concept.

  2. System Support for Forensic Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gehani, Ashish; Kirchner, Florent; Shankar, Natarajan

    Digital evidence is playing an increasingly important role in prosecuting crimes. The reasons are manifold: financially lucrative targets are now connected online, systems are so complex that vulnerabilities abound and strong digital identities are being adopted, making audit trails more useful. If the discoveries of forensic analysts are to hold up to scrutiny in court, they must meet the standard for scientific evidence. Software systems are currently developed without consideration of this fact. This paper argues for the development of a formal framework for constructing “digital artifacts” that can serve as proxies for physical evidence; a system so imbued would facilitate sound digital forensic inference. A case study involving a filesystem augmentation that provides transparent support for forensic inference is described.

  3. Probability biases as Bayesian inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre; C. R. Martins

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.

  4. Statistical inference on residual life

    CERN Document Server

    Jeong, Jong-Hyeon

    2014-01-01

    This is a monograph on the concept of residual life, which is an alternative summary measure of time-to-event data, or survival data. The mean residual life has been used for many years under the name of life expectancy, so it is a natural concept for summarizing survival or reliability data. It is also more interpretable than the popular hazard function, especially for communications between patients and physicians regarding the efficacy of a new drug in the medical field. This book reviews existing statistical methods to infer the residual life distribution. The review and comparison includes existing inference methods for mean and median, or quantile, residual life analysis through medical data examples. The concept of the residual life is also extended to competing risks analysis. The targeted audience includes biostatisticians, graduate students, and PhD (bio)statisticians. Knowledge in survival analysis at an introductory graduate level is advisable prior to reading this book.

  5. Nonparametric Bayesian inference in biostatistics

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, Peter

    2015-01-01

    As chapters in this book demonstrate, BNP has important uses in clinical sciences and inference for issues like unknown partitions in genomics. Nonparametric Bayesian approaches (BNP) play an ever expanding role in biostatistical inference from use in proteomics to clinical trials. Many research problems involve an abundance of data and require flexible and complex probability models beyond the traditional parametric approaches. As this book's expert contributors show, BNP approaches can be the answer. Survival Analysis, in particular survival regression, has traditionally used BNP, but BNP's potential is now very broad. This applies to important tasks like arrangement of patients into clinically meaningful subpopulations and segmenting the genome into functionally distinct regions. This book is designed to both review and introduce application areas for BNP. While existing books provide theoretical foundations, this book connects theory to practice through engaging examples and research questions. Chapters c...

  6. Statistical inference a short course

    CERN Document Server

    Panik, Michael J

    2012-01-01

    A concise, easily accessible introduction to descriptive and inferential techniques Statistical Inference: A Short Course offers a concise presentation of the essentials of basic statistics for readers seeking to acquire a working knowledge of statistical concepts, measures, and procedures. The author conducts tests on the assumption of randomness and normality, provides nonparametric methods when parametric approaches might not work. The book also explores how to determine a confidence interval for a population median while also providing coverage of ratio estimation, randomness, and causal

  7. On Quantum Statistical Inference, II

    OpenAIRE

    Barndorff-Nielsen, O. E.; Gill, R. D.; Jupp, P. E.

    2003-01-01

    Interest in problems of statistical inference connected to measurements of quantum systems has recently increased substantially, in step with dramatic new developments in experimental techniques for studying small quantum systems. Furthermore, theoretical developments in the theory of quantum measurements have brought the basic mathematical framework for the probability calculations much closer to that of classical probability theory. The present paper reviews this field and proposes and inte...

  8. Nonparametric predictive inference in reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolen, F.P.A.; Coolen-Schrijner, P.; Yan, K.J.

    2002-01-01

    We introduce a recently developed statistical approach, called nonparametric predictive inference (NPI), to reliability. Bounds for the survival function for a future observation are presented. We illustrate how NPI can deal with right-censored data, and discuss aspects of competing risks. We present possible applications of NPI for Bernoulli data, and we briefly outline applications of NPI for replacement decisions. The emphasis is on introduction and illustration of NPI in reliability contexts, detailed mathematical justifications are presented elsewhere

  9. Variational inference & deep learning : A new synthesis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kingma, D.P.

    2017-01-01

    In this thesis, Variational Inference and Deep Learning: A New Synthesis, we propose novel solutions to the problems of variational (Bayesian) inference, generative modeling, representation learning, semi-supervised learning, and stochastic optimization.

  10. Variational inference & deep learning: A new synthesis

    OpenAIRE

    Kingma, D.P.

    2017-01-01

    In this thesis, Variational Inference and Deep Learning: A New Synthesis, we propose novel solutions to the problems of variational (Bayesian) inference, generative modeling, representation learning, semi-supervised learning, and stochastic optimization.

  11. Continuous Integrated Invariant Inference, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed project will develop a new technique for invariant inference and embed this and other current invariant inference and checking techniques in an...

  12. Variations on Bayesian Prediction and Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-09

    inference 2.2.1 Background There are a number of statistical inference problems that are not generally formulated via a full probability model...problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND...the problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability model/likelihood which can be an obstacle

  13. Adaptive Inference on General Graphical Models

    OpenAIRE

    Acar, Umut A.; Ihler, Alexander T.; Mettu, Ramgopal; Sumer, Ozgur

    2012-01-01

    Many algorithms and applications involve repeatedly solving variations of the same inference problem; for example we may want to introduce new evidence to the model or perform updates to conditional dependencies. The goal of adaptive inference is to take advantage of what is preserved in the model and perform inference more rapidly than from scratch. In this paper, we describe techniques for adaptive inference on general graphs that support marginal computation and updates to the conditional ...

  14. Efficient fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithms for incorporating expert knowledge in parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajabi, Mohammad Mahdi; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad

    2016-05-01

    Bayesian inference has traditionally been conceived as the proper framework for the formal incorporation of expert knowledge in parameter estimation of groundwater models. However, conventional Bayesian inference is incapable of taking into account the imprecision essentially embedded in expert provided information. In order to solve this problem, a number of extensions to conventional Bayesian inference have been introduced in recent years. One of these extensions is 'fuzzy Bayesian inference' which is the result of integrating fuzzy techniques into Bayesian statistics. Fuzzy Bayesian inference has a number of desirable features which makes it an attractive approach for incorporating expert knowledge in the parameter estimation process of groundwater models: (1) it is well adapted to the nature of expert provided information, (2) it allows to distinguishably model both uncertainty and imprecision, and (3) it presents a framework for fusing expert provided information regarding the various inputs of the Bayesian inference algorithm. However an important obstacle in employing fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater numerical modeling applications is the computational burden, as the required number of numerical model simulations often becomes extremely exhaustive and often computationally infeasible. In this paper, a novel approach of accelerating the fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithm is proposed which is based on using approximate posterior distributions derived from surrogate modeling, as a screening tool in the computations. The proposed approach is first applied to a synthetic test case of seawater intrusion (SWI) in a coastal aquifer. It is shown that for this synthetic test case, the proposed approach decreases the number of required numerical simulations by an order of magnitude. Then the proposed approach is applied to a real-world test case involving three-dimensional numerical modeling of SWI in Kish Island, located in the Persian Gulf. An expert

  15. Temporal variability of mass transport across Canary Islands Channels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marrero-Díaz, Ángeles; Rodríguez-Santana, Ángel; José Machín, Francisco; García-Weil, Luis; Sangrà, Pablo; Vélez-Belchí, Pedro; Fraile-Nuez, Eugenio

    2014-05-01

    The equatorward flowing Canary Current (CC) is the main feature of the circulation in the Canary Islands region. The CC flow perturbation by the Canary Islands originate the Canary Eddy Corridor which is the major pathway for long lived eddies in the subtropical North Atlantic (Sangrà et al., 2009, DSR). Therefore the variability of the CC passing through the Canary Archipelago will have both local and regional importance. Past studies on the CC variability trough the Canary Islands point out a clearly seasonal variability (Fraile-Nuez et al, 2010 (JGR); Hernández-Guerra et al, 2002 (DSR)). However those studies where focused on the eastern islands channels missing the variability through the western island channels which are the main source of long lived eddies. In order to fill this gap from November 2012 until September 2013 we conducted trimonthly surveys crossing the whole islands channels using opportunity ships (Naviera Armas Ferries). XBT and XCTD where launched along the cross channels transects. Additionally a closed box circling the Archipelago was performed on October 2013 as part of the cruise RAPROCAN-2013 (IEO) using also XBT and XCTD. Dynamical variables where derived inferring salinity from S(T,p) analytical relationships for the region updated with new XCTD data. High resolution, vertical sections of temperature, potential density, geostrophic velocity and transport where obtained. Our preliminary results suggest that the CC suffer a noticeable acceleration in those islands channels where eddy shedding is more frequent. They also indicate a clearly seasonal variability of the flows passing the islands channels. With this regard we observed significant differences on the obtained seasonal variability with respect the cited past studies on the eastern islands channel (Lanzarote / Fuerteventura - Africa coast). This work was co-funded by Canary Government (TRAMIC project: PROID20100092) and the European Union (FEDER).

  16. More than one kind of inference: re-examining what's learned in feature inference and classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweller, Naomi; Hayes, Brett K

    2010-08-01

    Three studies examined how task demands that impact on attention to typical or atypical category features shape the category representations formed through classification learning and inference learning. During training categories were learned via exemplar classification or by inferring missing exemplar features. In the latter condition inferences were made about missing typical features alone (typical feature inference) or about both missing typical and atypical features (mixed feature inference). Classification and mixed feature inference led to the incorporation of typical and atypical features into category representations, with both kinds of features influencing inferences about familiar (Experiments 1 and 2) and novel (Experiment 3) test items. Those in the typical inference condition focused primarily on typical features. Together with formal modelling, these results challenge previous accounts that have characterized inference learning as producing a focus on typical category features. The results show that two different kinds of inference learning are possible and that these are subserved by different kinds of category representations.

  17. Generative inference for cultural evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandler, Anne; Powell, Adam

    2018-04-05

    One of the major challenges in cultural evolution is to understand why and how various forms of social learning are used in human populations, both now and in the past. To date, much of the theoretical work on social learning has been done in isolation of data, and consequently many insights focus on revealing the learning processes or the distributions of cultural variants that are expected to have evolved in human populations. In population genetics, recent methodological advances have allowed a greater understanding of the explicit demographic and/or selection mechanisms that underlie observed allele frequency distributions across the globe, and their change through time. In particular, generative frameworks-often using coalescent-based simulation coupled with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)-have provided robust inferences on the human past, with no reliance on a priori assumptions of equilibrium. Here, we demonstrate the applicability and utility of generative inference approaches to the field of cultural evolution. The framework advocated here uses observed population-level frequency data directly to establish the likely presence or absence of particular hypothesized learning strategies. In this context, we discuss the problem of equifinality and argue that, in the light of sparse cultural data and the multiplicity of possible social learning processes, the exclusion of those processes inconsistent with the observed data might be the most instructive outcome. Finally, we summarize the findings of generative inference approaches applied to a number of case studies.This article is part of the theme issue 'Bridging cultural gaps: interdisciplinary studies in human cultural evolution'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  18. sick: The Spectroscopic Inference Crank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casey, Andrew R.

    2016-03-01

    There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives that remain severely under-utilized. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analyzing large volumes of spectra contributes to this situation, which is poised to worsen as large surveys successively release orders of magnitude more spectra. In this article I introduce sick, the spectroscopic inference crank, a flexible and fast Bayesian tool for inferring astrophysical parameters from spectra. sick is agnostic to the wavelength coverage, resolving power, or general data format, allowing any user to easily construct a generative model for their data, regardless of its source. sick can be used to provide a nearest-neighbor estimate of model parameters, a numerically optimized point estimate, or full Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability distributions. This generality empowers any astronomer to capitalize on the plethora of published synthetic and observed spectra, and make precise inferences for a host of astrophysical (and nuisance) quantities. Model intensities can be reliably approximated from existing grids of synthetic or observed spectra using linear multi-dimensional interpolation, or a Cannon-based model. Additional phenomena that transform the data (e.g., redshift, rotational broadening, continuum, spectral resolution) are incorporated as free parameters and can be marginalized away. Outlier pixels (e.g., cosmic rays or poorly modeled regimes) can be treated with a Gaussian mixture model, and a noise model is included to account for systematically underestimated variance. Combining these phenomena into a scalar-justified, quantitative model permits precise inferences with credible uncertainties on noisy data. I describe the common model features, the implementation details, and the default behavior, which is balanced to be suitable for most astronomical applications. Using a forward model on low-resolution, high signal

  19. Inferring network structure from cascades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghonge, Sushrut; Vural, Dervis Can

    2017-07-01

    Many physical, biological, and social phenomena can be described by cascades taking place on a network. Often, the activity can be empirically observed, but not the underlying network of interactions. In this paper we offer three topological methods to infer the structure of any directed network given a set of cascade arrival times. Our formulas hold for a very general class of models where the activation probability of a node is a generic function of its degree and the number of its active neighbors. We report high success rates for synthetic and real networks, for several different cascade models.

  20. SICK: THE SPECTROSCOPIC INFERENCE CRANK

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casey, Andrew R., E-mail: arc@ast.cam.ac.uk [Institute of Astronomy, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambdridge, CB3 0HA (United Kingdom)

    2016-03-15

    There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives that remain severely under-utilized. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analyzing large volumes of spectra contributes to this situation, which is poised to worsen as large surveys successively release orders of magnitude more spectra. In this article I introduce sick, the spectroscopic inference crank, a flexible and fast Bayesian tool for inferring astrophysical parameters from spectra. sick is agnostic to the wavelength coverage, resolving power, or general data format, allowing any user to easily construct a generative model for their data, regardless of its source. sick can be used to provide a nearest-neighbor estimate of model parameters, a numerically optimized point estimate, or full Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability distributions. This generality empowers any astronomer to capitalize on the plethora of published synthetic and observed spectra, and make precise inferences for a host of astrophysical (and nuisance) quantities. Model intensities can be reliably approximated from existing grids of synthetic or observed spectra using linear multi-dimensional interpolation, or a Cannon-based model. Additional phenomena that transform the data (e.g., redshift, rotational broadening, continuum, spectral resolution) are incorporated as free parameters and can be marginalized away. Outlier pixels (e.g., cosmic rays or poorly modeled regimes) can be treated with a Gaussian mixture model, and a noise model is included to account for systematically underestimated variance. Combining these phenomena into a scalar-justified, quantitative model permits precise inferences with credible uncertainties on noisy data. I describe the common model features, the implementation details, and the default behavior, which is balanced to be suitable for most astronomical applications. Using a forward model on low-resolution, high signal

  1. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....

  2. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    2013-01-01

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....

  3. Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas D.; Rumi, Rafael; Salmeron, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Bayesian networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability techniques (like fault trees and reliability block diagrams). However, limitations in the BNs' calculation engine have prevented BNs from becoming equally popular for domains containing mixtures of both discrete and continuous variables (the so-called hybrid domains). In this paper we focus on these difficulties, and summarize some of the last decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability.

  4. SICK: THE SPECTROSCOPIC INFERENCE CRANK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casey, Andrew R.

    2016-01-01

    There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives that remain severely under-utilized. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analyzing large volumes of spectra contributes to this situation, which is poised to worsen as large surveys successively release orders of magnitude more spectra. In this article I introduce sick, the spectroscopic inference crank, a flexible and fast Bayesian tool for inferring astrophysical parameters from spectra. sick is agnostic to the wavelength coverage, resolving power, or general data format, allowing any user to easily construct a generative model for their data, regardless of its source. sick can be used to provide a nearest-neighbor estimate of model parameters, a numerically optimized point estimate, or full Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability distributions. This generality empowers any astronomer to capitalize on the plethora of published synthetic and observed spectra, and make precise inferences for a host of astrophysical (and nuisance) quantities. Model intensities can be reliably approximated from existing grids of synthetic or observed spectra using linear multi-dimensional interpolation, or a Cannon-based model. Additional phenomena that transform the data (e.g., redshift, rotational broadening, continuum, spectral resolution) are incorporated as free parameters and can be marginalized away. Outlier pixels (e.g., cosmic rays or poorly modeled regimes) can be treated with a Gaussian mixture model, and a noise model is included to account for systematically underestimated variance. Combining these phenomena into a scalar-justified, quantitative model permits precise inferences with credible uncertainties on noisy data. I describe the common model features, the implementation details, and the default behavior, which is balanced to be suitable for most astronomical applications. Using a forward model on low-resolution, high signal

  5. Vancouver Island gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Des Brisay, C.

    2005-01-01

    Terasen Gas is pursuing alternatives for the supply of additional natural gas capacity to Vancouver Island. Its subsidiary, Terasen Gas (Vancouver Island) Inc. (TGVI), is responding to the need for delivery of increased gas supply and, is supporting plans for new gas-fired power generation on Vancouver Island. TGVI's proposal for new natural gas capacity involves a combination of compression and pipeline loops as well as the addition of a storage facility for liquefied natural gas (LNG) at Mt. Hayes to help manage price volatility. This presentation outlined the objectives and components of the resource planning process, including demand forecast scenarios and the preferred infrastructure options. tabs., figs

  6. Multiple independent colonization of the Canary Islands by the winged grasshopper genus Sphingonotus Fieber, 1852.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husemann, Martin; Deppermann, Jana; Hochkirch, Axel

    2014-12-01

    Volcanic archipelagos represent ideal systems to study processes of colonization, differentiation and speciation. The Canary Islands are one of the best studied archipelagos, being composed of seven main islands with a well-known geological history. Most taxa have colonized these islands stepwise from the African or Iberian mainland from east to west, following their geological origin as well as the predominating wind direction and ocean currents. Furthermore, within-island radiations have been reported for several taxa. The grasshopper genus Sphingonotus is species-rich and occurs with nine fully winged species on the Canary Islands, seven of which are endemic to single or few islands. We inferred a phylogeny of these species and their North African and Iberian relatives based upon sequences of three mitochondrial genes and one nuclear gene of 136 specimens. Surprisingly, our results suggest that almost all Sphingonotus species colonized the archipelago independently from the mainland and nearly no inter-island colonization occurred. Despite their strong flight capabilities, only one pair of endemic species are closely related (S. sublaevis from Gran Canary and S. pachecoi from Lanzarote). Moreover, no within-island speciation events were detected. We hypothesize that passive wind dispersal from the African mainland was the main driver of the colonization process and that most Sphingonotus species are not able to cover inter-island distances by active flight. This, together with strong intrageneric niche overlap might explain the lack of within-island speciation in this taxon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Subjective randomness as statistical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Thomas L; Daniels, Dylan; Austerweil, Joseph L; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

    2018-06-01

    Some events seem more random than others. For example, when tossing a coin, a sequence of eight heads in a row does not seem very random. Where do these intuitions about randomness come from? We argue that subjective randomness can be understood as the result of a statistical inference assessing the evidence that an event provides for having been produced by a random generating process. We show how this account provides a link to previous work relating randomness to algorithmic complexity, in which random events are those that cannot be described by short computer programs. Algorithmic complexity is both incomputable and too general to capture the regularities that people can recognize, but viewing randomness as statistical inference provides two paths to addressing these problems: considering regularities generated by simpler computing machines, and restricting the set of probability distributions that characterize regularity. Building on previous work exploring these different routes to a more restricted notion of randomness, we define strong quantitative models of human randomness judgments that apply not just to binary sequences - which have been the focus of much of the previous work on subjective randomness - but also to binary matrices and spatial clustering. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Island formation without attractive interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, A.P.J.

    2008-01-01

    We show that adsorbates on surfaces can form islands even if there are no attractive interactions. Instead, strong repulsion between adsorbates at short distances can lead to islands, because such islands increase the entropy of the adsorbates that are not part of the islands. We suggest that this

  9. Coalescence of magnetic islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pellat, R.

    1982-01-01

    The paper gives the analytical theory of the coalescence instability and of a new, one island, instability. These instabilities are expected to be relevant for the disruptions observed in Tokamak experiments and astrophysical plasmas

  10. Heat Island Compendium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heat islands can be mitigated through measures like planting trees and vegetation, installing green roofs and cool roofs, and using cool pavements. The compendium describes all of these strategies and shows how communities around the country are being used

  11. Three Mile Island revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacLeod, G.K.

    1986-01-01

    The accident at Three Mile Island proved that the Pennsylvania Department of Health lacked the tools to deal with the serious health consequences that occurred during and after this emergency. Despite the relative safety of nuclear power generation, we must be better prepared for the health and medical consequences of serous radiation emergencies. The author reviews the Three Mile Island accident through the eyes of newspaper reporters

  12. Islands and Islandness in Rock Music Lyrics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniele Mezzana

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a first exploration, qualitative in character, based on a review of 412 songs produced in the period 1960-2009, about islands in rock music as both social products and social tools potentially contributing to shaping ideas, emotions, will, and desires. An initial taxonomy of 24 themes clustered under five meta-themes of space, lifestyle, emotions, symbolism, and social-political relations is provided, together with some proposals for further research.

  13. Lower complexity bounds for lifted inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred

    2015-01-01

    instances of the model. Numerous approaches for such “lifted inference” techniques have been proposed. While it has been demonstrated that these techniques will lead to significantly more efficient inference on some specific models, there are only very recent and still quite restricted results that show...... the feasibility of lifted inference on certain syntactically defined classes of models. Lower complexity bounds that imply some limitations for the feasibility of lifted inference on more expressive model classes were established earlier in Jaeger (2000; Jaeger, M. 2000. On the complexity of inference about...... that under the assumption that NETIME≠ETIME, there is no polynomial lifted inference algorithm for knowledge bases of weighted, quantifier-, and function-free formulas. Further strengthening earlier results, this is also shown to hold for approximate inference and for knowledge bases not containing...

  14. A comparison of controls on freshwater lens morphology of small carbonate and siliciclastic islands: examples from barrier islands in Florida, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, James C.; Kruse, Sarah E.

    2003-12-01

    The freshwater lens on small islands may easily be overexploited or polluted due to dense development combined with improper management. On small carbonate islands complexities in fresh groundwater distribution are most commonly driven by geologic heterogeneities and their attendant impact on permeability and effective recharge patterns. Siliciclastic islands (composed primarily of quartz sand and other silica-based minerals) have been less well studied, and fewer common patterns of lens development have emerged. On some siliciclastic islands correlations between geology and lens geometries are weak; on these islands the freshwater lens geometry may be largely determined by how vegetation and terrain elevation affect recharge. Other factors such as unequal sea level on opposite sides of an island and transient variability (natural island migration and climate variability) may also be locally significant. Two barrier islands in the northeast Gulf of Mexico fall into this category of siliciclastic islands. Relationships between lens morphology, geology, vegetation, terrain, and sea level and transient effects are documented on St George Island and Dog Island, FL. Patterns of fresh groundwater occurrence are deduced with electrical and electromagnetic geophysical methods. Although isolated cores show geologic layering that could potentially control freshwater lens development, ground penetrating radar and seismic surveys show no evidence of semi-continuous subhorizontal layering. Inferred lens thickness and geometry suggests that site geology plays a relatively minor role as a cause of complexity in lens formation. Lens geometry does appear to be related to terrain and vegetation variability, and further complicated by the continuous reforming of these islands by coastal processes and human development.

  15. Statistical inference for financial engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Taniguchi, Masanobu; Ogata, Hiroaki; Taniai, Hiroyuki

    2014-01-01

    This monograph provides the fundamentals of statistical inference for financial engineering and covers some selected methods suitable for analyzing financial time series data. In order to describe the actual financial data, various stochastic processes, e.g. non-Gaussian linear processes, non-linear processes, long-memory processes, locally stationary processes etc. are introduced and their optimal estimation is considered as well. This book also includes several statistical approaches, e.g., discriminant analysis, the empirical likelihood method, control variate method, quantile regression, realized volatility etc., which have been recently developed and are considered to be powerful tools for analyzing the financial data, establishing a new bridge between time series and financial engineering. This book is well suited as a professional reference book on finance, statistics and statistical financial engineering. Readers are expected to have an undergraduate-level knowledge of statistics.

  16. Type inference for correspondence types

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hüttel, Hans; Gordon, Andy; Hansen, Rene Rydhof

    2009-01-01

    We present a correspondence type/effect system for authenticity in a π-calculus with polarized channels, dependent pair types and effect terms and show how one may, given a process P and an a priori type environment E, generate constraints that are formulae in the Alternating Least Fixed......-Point (ALFP) logic. We then show how a reasonable model of the generated constraints yields a type/effect assignment such that P becomes well-typed with respect to E if and only if this is possible. The formulae generated satisfy a finite model property; a system of constraints is satisfiable if and only...... if it has a finite model. As a consequence, we obtain the result that type/effect inference in our system is polynomial-time decidable....

  17. Causal inference in public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glass, Thomas A; Goodman, Steven N; Hernán, Miguel A; Samet, Jonathan M

    2013-01-01

    Causal inference has a central role in public health; the determination that an association is causal indicates the possibility for intervention. We review and comment on the long-used guidelines for interpreting evidence as supporting a causal association and contrast them with the potential outcomes framework that encourages thinking in terms of causes that are interventions. We argue that in public health this framework is more suitable, providing an estimate of an action's consequences rather than the less precise notion of a risk factor's causal effect. A variety of modern statistical methods adopt this approach. When an intervention cannot be specified, causal relations can still exist, but how to intervene to change the outcome will be unclear. In application, the often-complex structure of causal processes needs to be acknowledged and appropriate data collected to study them. These newer approaches need to be brought to bear on the increasingly complex public health challenges of our globalized world.

  18. Inference Attacks and Control on Database Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhamed Turkanovic

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Today’s databases store information with sensitivity levels that range from public to highly sensitive, hence ensuring confidentiality can be highly important, but also requires costly control. This paper focuses on the inference problem on different database structures. It presents possible treats on privacy with relation to the inference, and control methods for mitigating these treats. The paper shows that using only access control, without any inference control is inadequate, since these models are unable to protect against indirect data access. Furthermore, it covers new inference problems which rise from the dimensions of new technologies like XML, semantics, etc.

  19. Magnetic-Island Contraction and Particle Acceleration in Simulated Eruptive Solar Flares

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guidoni, S. E.; Devore, C. R.; Karpen, J. T.; Lynch, B. J.

    2016-01-01

    The mechanism that accelerates particles to the energies required to produce the observed high-energy impulsive emission in solar flares is not well understood. Drake et al. proposed a mechanism for accelerating electrons in contracting magnetic islands formed by kinetic reconnection in multi-layered current sheets (CSs). We apply these ideas to sunward-moving flux ropes (2.5D magnetic islands) formed during fast reconnection in a simulated eruptive flare. A simple analytic model is used to calculate the energy gain of particles orbiting the field lines of the contracting magnetic islands in our ultrahigh-resolution 2.5D numerical simulation. We find that the estimated energy gains in a single island range up to a factor of five. This is higher than that found by Drake et al. for islands in the terrestrial magnetosphere and at the heliopause, due to strong plasma compression that occurs at the flare CS. In order to increase their energy by two orders of magnitude and plausibly account for the observed high-energy flare emission, the electrons must visit multiple contracting islands. This mechanism should produce sporadic emission because island formation is intermittent. Moreover, a large number of particles could be accelerated in each magneto hydro dynamic-scale island, which may explain the inferred rates of energetic-electron production in flares. We conclude that island contraction in the flare CS is a promising candidate for electron acceleration in solar eruptions.

  20. Heron Island, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    Heron Island is located at the sourthern end of Australia's 2,050 km-long Great Barrier Reef. Surrounded by coral reef and home to over 1000 species of fish, scuba divers and scientists alike are drawn to the island's resort and research station. The true-color image above was taken by Space Imaging's Ikonos satellite with a resolution of 4 meters per pixel-high enough to see individual boats tied up at the small marina. The narrow channel leading from the marina to the ocean was blasted and dredged decades ago, before the island became a national park. Since then the Australian government has implemented conservation measures, such as limiting the number of tourists and removing or recycling, instead of incinerating, all trash. One of the applications of remote sensing data from Ikonos is environmental monitoring, including studies of coral reef health. For more information about the island, read Heron Island. Image by Robert Simmon, based on data copyright Space Imaging

  1. LAIT: a local ancestry inference toolkit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Daniel; Fang, Zhou; Lin, Jerome; Duan, Qing; Li, Yun; Hu, Ming; Chen, Wei

    2017-09-06

    Inferring local ancestry in individuals of mixed ancestry has many applications, most notably in identifying disease-susceptible loci that vary among different ethnic groups. Many software packages are available for inferring local ancestry in admixed individuals. However, most of these existing software packages require specific formatted input files and generate output files in various types, yielding practical inconvenience. We developed a tool set, Local Ancestry Inference Toolkit (LAIT), which can convert standardized files into software-specific input file formats as well as standardize and summarize inference results for four popular local ancestry inference software: HAPMIX, LAMP, LAMP-LD, and ELAI. We tested LAIT using both simulated and real data sets and demonstrated that LAIT provides convenience to run multiple local ancestry inference software. In addition, we evaluated the performance of local ancestry software among different supported software packages, mainly focusing on inference accuracy and computational resources used. We provided a toolkit to facilitate the use of local ancestry inference software, especially for users with limited bioinformatics background.

  2. Forward and backward inference in spatial cognition.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Will D Penny

    Full Text Available This paper shows that the various computations underlying spatial cognition can be implemented using statistical inference in a single probabilistic model. Inference is implemented using a common set of 'lower-level' computations involving forward and backward inference over time. For example, to estimate where you are in a known environment, forward inference is used to optimally combine location estimates from path integration with those from sensory input. To decide which way to turn to reach a goal, forward inference is used to compute the likelihood of reaching that goal under each option. To work out which environment you are in, forward inference is used to compute the likelihood of sensory observations under the different hypotheses. For reaching sensory goals that require a chaining together of decisions, forward inference can be used to compute a state trajectory that will lead to that goal, and backward inference to refine the route and estimate control signals that produce the required trajectory. We propose that these computations are reflected in recent findings of pattern replay in the mammalian brain. Specifically, that theta sequences reflect decision making, theta flickering reflects model selection, and remote replay reflects route and motor planning. We also propose a mapping of the above computational processes onto lateral and medial entorhinal cortex and hippocampus.

  3. Generative Inferences Based on Learned Relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Dawn; Lu, Hongjing; Holyoak, Keith J.

    2017-01-01

    A key property of relational representations is their "generativity": From partial descriptions of relations between entities, additional inferences can be drawn about other entities. A major theoretical challenge is to demonstrate how the capacity to make generative inferences could arise as a result of learning relations from…

  4. Inference in models with adaptive learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chevillon, G.; Massmann, M.; Mavroeidis, S.

    2010-01-01

    Identification of structural parameters in models with adaptive learning can be weak, causing standard inference procedures to become unreliable. Learning also induces persistent dynamics, and this makes the distribution of estimators and test statistics non-standard. Valid inference can be

  5. Fiducial inference - A Neyman-Pearson interpretation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salome, D; VonderLinden, W; Dose,; Fischer, R; Preuss, R

    1999-01-01

    Fisher's fiducial argument is a tool for deriving inferences in the form of a probability distribution on the parameter space, not based on Bayes's Theorem. Lindley established that in exceptional situations fiducial inferences coincide with posterior distributions; in the other situations fiducial

  6. Uncertainty in prediction and in inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hilgevoord, J.; Uffink, J.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts of uncertainty in prediction and inference are introduced and illustrated using the diffraction of light as an example. The close re-lationship between the concepts of uncertainty in inference and resolving power is noted. A general quantitative measure of uncertainty in

  7. Causal inference in economics and marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varian, Hal R

    2016-07-05

    This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual-a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference.

  8. Nonparametric predictive inference in statistical process control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arts, G.R.J.; Coolen, F.P.A.; Laan, van der P.

    2000-01-01

    New methods for statistical process control are presented, where the inferences have a nonparametric predictive nature. We consider several problems in process control in terms of uncertainties about future observable random quantities, and we develop inferences for these random quantities hased on

  9. The Impact of Disablers on Predictive Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummins, Denise Dellarosa

    2014-01-01

    People consider alternative causes when deciding whether a cause is responsible for an effect (diagnostic inference) but appear to neglect them when deciding whether an effect will occur (predictive inference). Five experiments were conducted to test a 2-part explanation of this phenomenon: namely, (a) that people interpret standard predictive…

  10. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Darwiche, Adnan; Chavira, Mark

    2006-01-01

    We describe in this paper a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available PRIMULA tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference...

  11. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Chavira, Mark; Darwiche, Adnan

    2004-01-01

    We describe a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available \\primula\\ tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference by evaluating...

  12. Small Island Visitor Attractions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haven Allahar

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This article proposes a process framework for developing and managing visitor attractions (VA in small island developing states with Trinidad and Tobago, a two-island state in the Caribbean, as the case study. An extensive literature review was conducted, supported by field observations, individual depth interviews, and small and large focus group meetings. The process framework identified four sets of processes: national policy formulation and legislation; inventory, classification, evaluation, and ranking of VA; general operations management involving project management activities; and site specific activities of development, operations, and maintenance. The value of the framework lies in the fact that no similar framework applicable to small islands was covered in the literature and validation was obtained from a panel of experts and a cross section of tourism stakeholders in Tobago.

  13. Extended likelihood inference in reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martz, H.F. Jr.; Beckman, R.J.; Waller, R.A.

    1978-10-01

    Extended likelihood methods of inference are developed in which subjective information in the form of a prior distribution is combined with sampling results by means of an extended likelihood function. The extended likelihood function is standardized for use in obtaining extended likelihood intervals. Extended likelihood intervals are derived for the mean of a normal distribution with known variance, the failure-rate of an exponential distribution, and the parameter of a binomial distribution. Extended second-order likelihood methods are developed and used to solve several prediction problems associated with the exponential and binomial distributions. In particular, such quantities as the next failure-time, the number of failures in a given time period, and the time required to observe a given number of failures are predicted for the exponential model with a gamma prior distribution on the failure-rate. In addition, six types of life testing experiments are considered. For the binomial model with a beta prior distribution on the probability of nonsurvival, methods are obtained for predicting the number of nonsurvivors in a given sample size and for predicting the required sample size for observing a specified number of nonsurvivors. Examples illustrate each of the methods developed. Finally, comparisons are made with Bayesian intervals in those cases where these are known to exist

  14. Reinforcement learning or active inference?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, Karl J; Daunizeau, Jean; Kiebel, Stefan J

    2009-07-29

    This paper questions the need for reinforcement learning or control theory when optimising behaviour. We show that it is fairly simple to teach an agent complicated and adaptive behaviours using a free-energy formulation of perception. In this formulation, agents adjust their internal states and sampling of the environment to minimize their free-energy. Such agents learn causal structure in the environment and sample it in an adaptive and self-supervised fashion. This results in behavioural policies that reproduce those optimised by reinforcement learning and dynamic programming. Critically, we do not need to invoke the notion of reward, value or utility. We illustrate these points by solving a benchmark problem in dynamic programming; namely the mountain-car problem, using active perception or inference under the free-energy principle. The ensuing proof-of-concept may be important because the free-energy formulation furnishes a unified account of both action and perception and may speak to a reappraisal of the role of dopamine in the brain.

  15. Reinforcement learning or active inference?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl J Friston

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper questions the need for reinforcement learning or control theory when optimising behaviour. We show that it is fairly simple to teach an agent complicated and adaptive behaviours using a free-energy formulation of perception. In this formulation, agents adjust their internal states and sampling of the environment to minimize their free-energy. Such agents learn causal structure in the environment and sample it in an adaptive and self-supervised fashion. This results in behavioural policies that reproduce those optimised by reinforcement learning and dynamic programming. Critically, we do not need to invoke the notion of reward, value or utility. We illustrate these points by solving a benchmark problem in dynamic programming; namely the mountain-car problem, using active perception or inference under the free-energy principle. The ensuing proof-of-concept may be important because the free-energy formulation furnishes a unified account of both action and perception and may speak to a reappraisal of the role of dopamine in the brain.

  16. Active inference and epistemic value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, Karl; Rigoli, Francesco; Ognibene, Dimitri; Mathys, Christoph; Fitzgerald, Thomas; Pezzulo, Giovanni

    2015-01-01

    We offer a formal treatment of choice behavior based on the premise that agents minimize the expected free energy of future outcomes. Crucially, the negative free energy or quality of a policy can be decomposed into extrinsic and epistemic (or intrinsic) value. Minimizing expected free energy is therefore equivalent to maximizing extrinsic value or expected utility (defined in terms of prior preferences or goals), while maximizing information gain or intrinsic value (or reducing uncertainty about the causes of valuable outcomes). The resulting scheme resolves the exploration-exploitation dilemma: Epistemic value is maximized until there is no further information gain, after which exploitation is assured through maximization of extrinsic value. This is formally consistent with the Infomax principle, generalizing formulations of active vision based upon salience (Bayesian surprise) and optimal decisions based on expected utility and risk-sensitive (Kullback-Leibler) control. Furthermore, as with previous active inference formulations of discrete (Markovian) problems, ad hoc softmax parameters become the expected (Bayes-optimal) precision of beliefs about, or confidence in, policies. This article focuses on the basic theory, illustrating the ideas with simulations. A key aspect of these simulations is the similarity between precision updates and dopaminergic discharges observed in conditioning paradigms.

  17. Ancient Biomolecules and Evolutionary Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cappellini, Enrico; Prohaska, Ana; Racimo, Fernando; Welker, Frido; Pedersen, Mikkel Winther; Allentoft, Morten E; de Barros Damgaard, Peter; Gutenbrunner, Petra; Dunne, Julie; Hammann, Simon; Roffet-Salque, Mélanie; Ilardo, Melissa; Moreno-Mayar, J Víctor; Wang, Yucheng; Sikora, Martin; Vinner, Lasse; Cox, Jürgen; Evershed, Richard P; Willerslev, Eske

    2018-04-25

    Over the last decade, studies of ancient biomolecules-particularly ancient DNA, proteins, and lipids-have revolutionized our understanding of evolutionary history. Though initially fraught with many challenges, the field now stands on firm foundations. Researchers now successfully retrieve nucleotide and amino acid sequences, as well as lipid signatures, from progressively older samples, originating from geographic areas and depositional environments that, until recently, were regarded as hostile to long-term preservation of biomolecules. Sampling frequencies and the spatial and temporal scope of studies have also increased markedly, and with them the size and quality of the data sets generated. This progress has been made possible by continuous technical innovations in analytical methods, enhanced criteria for the selection of ancient samples, integrated experimental methods, and advanced computational approaches. Here, we discuss the history and current state of ancient biomolecule research, its applications to evolutionary inference, and future directions for this young and exciting field. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Biochemistry Volume 87 is June 20, 2018. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

  18. Bayesian Inference Methods for Sparse Channel Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Lovmand

    2013-01-01

    This thesis deals with sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) with application to radio channel estimation. As opposed to the classical approach for sparse signal representation, we focus on the problem of inferring complex signals. Our investigations within SBL constitute the basis for the development...... of Bayesian inference algorithms for sparse channel estimation. Sparse inference methods aim at finding the sparse representation of a signal given in some overcomplete dictionary of basis vectors. Within this context, one of our main contributions to the field of SBL is a hierarchical representation...... analysis of the complex prior representation, where we show that the ability to induce sparse estimates of a given prior heavily depends on the inference method used and, interestingly, whether real or complex variables are inferred. We also show that the Bayesian estimators derived from the proposed...

  19. EI: A Program for Ecological Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary King

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available The program EI provides a method of inferring individual behavior from aggregate data. It implements the statistical procedures, diagnostics, and graphics from the book A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data (King 1997. Ecological inference, as traditionally defined, is the process of using aggregate (i.e., "ecological" data to infer discrete individual-level relationships of interest when individual-level data are not available. Ecological inferences are required in political science research when individual-level surveys are unavailable (e.g., local or comparative electoral politics, unreliable (racial politics, insufficient (political geography, or infeasible (political history. They are also required in numerous areas of ma jor significance in public policy (e.g., for applying the Voting Rights Act and other academic disciplines ranging from epidemiology and marketing to sociology and quantitative history.

  20. Island of Luzon, Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-01-01

    In this north to south view of the Island of Luzon, Philippines (13.0N, 120.0E), the prominent Cordillera Central mountain range where gold, copper and silver are mined. The several large rivers that drain this region normally carry a heavy silt load to the sea but the absence of sediment plumes in this view is evidence of hot dry weather and lack of recent rains. Manila, the capital city is just visible at the south end of the island.

  1. Chatham Islands Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mullan, B.; Salinger, J.; Thompson, C.; Ramsay, D.; Wild, M.

    2005-06-01

    This brief report provides guidance on climate change specific to the Chatham Islands, to complement the information recently produced for local government by the Ministry for the Environment in 'Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment: A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand' and 'Coastal Hazards and Climate Change: A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand'. These previous reports contain a lot of generic information on climate change, and how to assess associated risks, that is relevant to the Chatham Islands Council.

  2. Island in the Air

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Dorthe Gert

    2017-01-01

    In this article, I explore the formation of airspace in Britain from 1910 to 1913. The technology of flight challenged the “flat discourse” of nationalized geography, drawing up instead a volumetric space in the sky as airplanes flew from the Continent to England. The drive to control aerial...... extension of the Island Kingdom, extrapolating its coastal borders into the sky. However, even as Parliament passed the Aerial Navigation Act in 1913, this legal construction of an island in the air could not endure the agency of airplanes. The formation of airspace, I argue, is a history particularly well...

  3. Archaeoastronomy of Easter Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Edmundo

    Astronomer priests or "skywatchers" on Easter Island lived in stone towers that were used as observatories and built stone markers in the periphery that indicated the heliacal rising of certain stars that served to indicate the arrival of marine birds, turtles, the offshore fishing season, and times for planting and harvest. Petroglyphs related to such sites depict outriggers, fishhooks, pelagic fish, and turtles and supposedly represented a star map. In this chapter, we analyze a set of such skywatchers dwellings, and stone markers located upon the North coast of Easter Island that have astronomic orientations, its related petroglyphs, and the relations between these directions with their yearly activities and their ritual calendar.

  4. Long Island Solar Farm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anders, R.

    2013-05-01

    The Long Island Solar Farm (LISF) is a remarkable success story, whereby very different interest groups found a way to capitalize on unusual circumstances to develop a mutually beneficial source of renewable energy. The uniqueness of the circumstances that were necessary to develop the Long Island Solar Farm make it very difficult to replicate. The project is, however, an unparalleled resource for solar energy research, which will greatly inform large-scale PV solar development in the East. Lastly, the LISF is a superb model for the process by which the project developed and the innovation and leadership shown by the different players.

  5. Islanded operation of distribution networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    This report summarises the results of a study assessing the benefits and risks to distribution network of generator islanding and examining the technical, commercial and regulatory changes required to facilitate the operation of islanding. The background to the study is traced, and details are given of a literature review, the technical criteria for operating sections of the network in islanding mode, and the impact of islanding on trading. Case studies and a detailed implementation plan, data acquisition, and commercial incentives are discussed.

  6. Islanded operation of distribution networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    This report summarises the results of a study assessing the benefits and risks to distribution network of generator islanding and examining the technical, commercial and regulatory changes required to facilitate the operation of islanding. The background to the study is traced, and details are given of a literature review, the technical criteria for operating sections of the network in islanding mode, and the impact of islanding on trading. Case studies and a detailed implementation plan, data acquisition, and commercial incentives are discussed

  7. Pediatrics in the Marshall Islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dungy, C.I.; Morgan, B.C.; Adams, W.H.

    1984-01-01

    The delivery of health care to children living on isolated island communities presents unique challenges to health professionals. An evolved method of providing longitudinal services to infants and children residing on islands of the Marshall Island chain - a central Pacific portion of the Micronesian archipelago - is presented. The difficulties associated with provision of comprehensive health care in a vast ocean area are discussed

  8. The Island Smart Energy System and Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Zheng; Billanes, Joy Dalmacio; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

    2017-01-01

    developing island smart energy systems with the integration of renewable energy resources can increase the energy supply and address the global island energy issues. The island smart energy system operates either in a single-island or in multi-islands. However the island characteristics and influ...

  9. Genetic affinities between the Yami tribe people of Orchid Island and the Philippine Islanders of the Batanes archipelago

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Yami and Ivatan islanders are Austronesian speakers from Orchid Island and the Batanes archipelago that are located between Taiwan and the Philippines. The paternal genealogies of the Yami tribe from 1962 monograph of Wei and Liu were compared with our dataset of non-recombining Y (NRY) chromosomes from the corresponding families. Then mitochondrial DNA polymorphism was also analyzed to determine the matrilineal relationships between Yami, Ivatan, and other East Asian populations. Results The family relationships inferred from the NRY Phylogeny suggested a low number of paternal founders and agreed with the genealogy of Wei and Liu (P Philippine people was closer than that between Yami and Ivatan, suggesting that the Orchid islanders were colonized separately by their nearest neighbors and bred in isolation. However a northward gene flow to Orchid Island from the Philippines was suspected as Yami and Ivatan peoples both speak Western Malayo-Polynesian languages which are not spoken in Taiwan. Actually, only very little gene flow was observed between Yami and Ivatan or between Yami and the Philippines as indicated by the sharing of mtDNA haplogroup B4a1a4 and one O1a1* Y-STR lineage. Conclusions The NRY and mtDNA genetic information among Yami tribe peoples fitted well the patrilocal society model proposed by Wei and Liu. In this proposal, there were likely few genetic exchanges among Yami and the Philippine people. Trading activities may have contributed to the diffusion of Malayo-Polynesian languages among them. Finally, artifacts dating 4,000 YBP, found on Orchid Island and indicating association with the Out of Taiwan hypothesis might be related to a pioneering stage of settlement, as most dating estimates inferred from DNA variation in our data set ranged between 100-3,000 YBP. PMID:21281460

  10. Solomon Islands Botany

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steenis, van C.G.G.J.

    1969-01-01

    A discussion of the Results of the Royal Society Expedition to the British Solomon Islands Protectorate, 1965. Organized by E.J.H. Corner. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 255 (1969) 185-631, 196 fig. University Printing House, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge. Obtainable through booksellers or direct to the Royal

  11. Pacific Island Pharmacovigilance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McEwen, John; Vestergaard, Lasse S.; Sanburg, Amanda L C

    2016-01-01

    Many Pacific Island countries (PICs) are recipients of funding support from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund). However, most of these countries cannot be expected to meet Global Fund and World Health Organization (WHO) minimum requirements for a functioning...

  12. Magnetic-island formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boozer, A.H.

    1983-08-01

    The response of a finite conductivity plasma to resonant magnetic perturbations is studied. The equations, which are derived for the time development of magnetic islands, help one interpret the singular currents which occur under the assumption of perfect plasma conductivity. The relation to the Rutherford regime of resistive instabilities is given

  13. Bone island and leprosy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carpintero, P.; Garcia-Frasquet, A. [Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Cordoba University, Medical School, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba (Spain); Tarradas, E. [Department of Imaging, Cordoba University, Medical School, Cordoba (Spain); Logrono, C. [Department of Dermatology, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba (Spain); Carrascal, A. [Department of Radiology, Infanta Elena Hospital, Huelva (Spain); Carreto, A. [Department of Radiology, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba (Spain)

    1998-06-01

    Objective. To determine the incidence of bone islands in leprosy patients. Design. X-rays of feet and hands of patients with Hansen`s disease (leprosy) were reviewed retrospectively. A second group of related age- and sex-matched patients who did not have Hansen`s disease was used for control purposes. Controls had undergone hand or foot X-rays during diagnosis of other pathologies. The patients with Hansen`s disease were compared with the control group, and were also analyzed as subgroups with different types of leprosy. The results were subjected to statistical analysis. Patients. Ninety patients with Hansen`s disease were randomly selected for this study. Patients who had had ulcers on hands or feet were excluded from the study. Results and conclusions. Bone islands were demonstrated in 20 patients with Hansen`s disease; no bone islands were observed in the controls. This was statistically significant (P<0.01). Bone islands were only seen in patients with lepromatous leprosy and borderline types but were not demonstrated in patients with tuberculoid leprosy. There was also a statistically significant relationship for a disease duration of 15 years or more. The cause of this raised incidence of enostosis in leprosy patients is not clear, but there may be a genetic predisposition in patients with leprosy, or it may be a side effect of leprosy, especially the lepromatous form. (orig.) With 4 figs., 2 tabs., 9 refs.

  14. Bone island and leprosy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carpintero, P.; Garcia-Frasquet, A.; Tarradas, E.; Logrono, C.; Carrascal, A.; Carreto, A.

    1998-01-01

    Objective. To determine the incidence of bone islands in leprosy patients. Design. X-rays of feet and hands of patients with Hansen's disease (leprosy) were reviewed retrospectively. A second group of related age- and sex-matched patients who did not have Hansen's disease was used for control purposes. Controls had undergone hand or foot X-rays during diagnosis of other pathologies. The patients with Hansen's disease were compared with the control group, and were also analyzed as subgroups with different types of leprosy. The results were subjected to statistical analysis. Patients. Ninety patients with Hansen's disease were randomly selected for this study. Patients who had had ulcers on hands or feet were excluded from the study. Results and conclusions. Bone islands were demonstrated in 20 patients with Hansen's disease; no bone islands were observed in the controls. This was statistically significant (P<0.01). Bone islands were only seen in patients with lepromatous leprosy and borderline types but were not demonstrated in patients with tuberculoid leprosy. There was also a statistically significant relationship for a disease duration of 15 years or more. The cause of this raised incidence of enostosis in leprosy patients is not clear, but there may be a genetic predisposition in patients with leprosy, or it may be a side effect of leprosy, especially the lepromatous form. (orig.)

  15. Speciation on oceanic islands: rapid adaptive divergence vs. cryptic speciation in a Guadalupe Island songbird (Aves: Junco.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pau Aleixandre

    Full Text Available The evolutionary divergence of island populations, and in particular the tempo and relative importance of neutral and selective factors, is of central interest to the study of speciation. The rate of phenotypic evolution upon island colonization can vary greatly among taxa, and cases of convergent evolution can further confound the inference of correct evolutionary histories. Given the potential lability of phenotypic characters, molecular dating of insular lineages analyzed in a phylogenetic framework provides a critical tool to test hypotheses of phenotypic divergence since colonization. The Guadalupe junco is the only insular form of the polymorphic dark-eyed junco (Junco hyemalis, and shares eye and plumage color with continental morphs, yet presents an enlarged bill and reduced body size. Here we use variation in mtDNA sequence, morphological traits and song variables to test whether the Guadalupe junco evolved rapidly following a recent colonization by a mainland form of the dark-eyed junco, or instead represents a well-differentiated "cryptic" lineage adapted to the insular environment through long-term isolation, with plumage coloration a result of evolutionary convergence. We found high mtDNA divergence of the island lineage with respect to both continental J. hyemalis and J. phaeonotus, representing a history of isolation of about 600,000 years. The island lineage was also significantly differentiated in morphological and male song variables. Moreover, and contrary to predictions regarding diversity loss on small oceanic islands, we document relatively high levels of both haplotypic and song-unit diversity on Guadalupe Island despite long-term isolation in a very small geographic area. In contrast to prevailing taxonomy, the Guadalupe junco is an old, well-differentiated evolutionary lineage, whose similarity to mainland juncos in plumage and eye color is due to evolutionary convergence. Our findings confirm the role of remote islands

  16. Speciation on oceanic islands: rapid adaptive divergence vs. cryptic speciation in a Guadalupe Island songbird (Aves: Junco).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleixandre, Pau; Hernández Montoya, Julio; Milá, Borja

    2013-01-01

    The evolutionary divergence of island populations, and in particular the tempo and relative importance of neutral and selective factors, is of central interest to the study of speciation. The rate of phenotypic evolution upon island colonization can vary greatly among taxa, and cases of convergent evolution can further confound the inference of correct evolutionary histories. Given the potential lability of phenotypic characters, molecular dating of insular lineages analyzed in a phylogenetic framework provides a critical tool to test hypotheses of phenotypic divergence since colonization. The Guadalupe junco is the only insular form of the polymorphic dark-eyed junco (Junco hyemalis), and shares eye and plumage color with continental morphs, yet presents an enlarged bill and reduced body size. Here we use variation in mtDNA sequence, morphological traits and song variables to test whether the Guadalupe junco evolved rapidly following a recent colonization by a mainland form of the dark-eyed junco, or instead represents a well-differentiated "cryptic" lineage adapted to the insular environment through long-term isolation, with plumage coloration a result of evolutionary convergence. We found high mtDNA divergence of the island lineage with respect to both continental J. hyemalis and J. phaeonotus, representing a history of isolation of about 600,000 years. The island lineage was also significantly differentiated in morphological and male song variables. Moreover, and contrary to predictions regarding diversity loss on small oceanic islands, we document relatively high levels of both haplotypic and song-unit diversity on Guadalupe Island despite long-term isolation in a very small geographic area. In contrast to prevailing taxonomy, the Guadalupe junco is an old, well-differentiated evolutionary lineage, whose similarity to mainland juncos in plumage and eye color is due to evolutionary convergence. Our findings confirm the role of remote islands in driving

  17. Multidecadal shoreline changes of atoll islands in the Marshall Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, M.

    2012-12-01

    Atoll islands are considered highly vulnerable to the impacts of continued sea level rise. One of the most commonly predicted outcomes of continued sea level rise is widespread and chronic shoreline erosion. Despite the widespread implications of predicted erosion, the decadal scale changes of atoll island shorelines are poorly resolved. The Marshall Islands is one of only four countries where the majority of inhabited land is comprised of reef and atoll islands. Consisting of 29 atolls and 5 mid-ocean reef islands, the Marshall Islands are considered highly vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise. A detailed analysis of shoreline change on over 300 islands on 10 atolls was undertaken using historic aerial photos (1945-1978) and modern high resolution satellite imagery (2004-2012). Results highlight the complex and dynamic nature of atoll islands, with significant shifts in shoreline position observed over the period of analysis. Results suggest shoreline accretion is the dominant mode of change on the islands studied, often associated with a net increase in vegetated island area. However, considerable inter- and intra-atoll variability exists with regards to shoreline stability. Findings are discussed with respect to island morphodynamics and potential hazard mitigation and planning responses within atoll settings.

  18. Statistical inference an integrated Bayesianlikelihood approach

    CERN Document Server

    Aitkin, Murray

    2010-01-01

    Filling a gap in current Bayesian theory, Statistical Inference: An Integrated Bayesian/Likelihood Approach presents a unified Bayesian treatment of parameter inference and model comparisons that can be used with simple diffuse prior specifications. This novel approach provides new solutions to difficult model comparison problems and offers direct Bayesian counterparts of frequentist t-tests and other standard statistical methods for hypothesis testing.After an overview of the competing theories of statistical inference, the book introduces the Bayes/likelihood approach used throughout. It pre

  19. Inferring Domain Plans in Question-Answering

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pollack, Martha E

    1986-01-01

    The importance of plan inference in models of conversation has been widely noted in the computational-linguistics literature, and its incorporation in question-answering systems has enabled a range...

  20. Scalable inference for stochastic block models

    KAUST Repository

    Peng, Chengbin; Zhang, Zhihua; Wong, Ka-Chun; Zhang, Xiangliang; Keyes, David E.

    2017-01-01

    Community detection in graphs is widely used in social and biological networks, and the stochastic block model is a powerful probabilistic tool for describing graphs with community structures. However, in the era of "big data," traditional inference

  1. Efficient algorithms for conditional independence inference

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bouckaert, R.; Hemmecke, R.; Lindner, S.; Studený, Milan

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 11, č. 1 (2010), s. 3453-3479 ISSN 1532-4435 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/08/0539; GA MŠk 1M0572 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : conditional independence inference * linear programming approach Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 2.949, year: 2010 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/MTR/studeny-efficient algorithms for conditional independence inference.pdf

  2. On the criticality of inferred models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Marsili, Matteo

    2011-10-01

    Advanced inference techniques allow one to reconstruct a pattern of interaction from high dimensional data sets, from probing simultaneously thousands of units of extended systems—such as cells, neural tissues and financial markets. We focus here on the statistical properties of inferred models and argue that inference procedures are likely to yield models which are close to singular values of parameters, akin to critical points in physics where phase transitions occur. These are points where the response of physical systems to external perturbations, as measured by the susceptibility, is very large and diverges in the limit of infinite size. We show that the reparameterization invariant metrics in the space of probability distributions of these models (the Fisher information) are directly related to the susceptibility of the inferred model. As a result, distinguishable models tend to accumulate close to critical points, where the susceptibility diverges in infinite systems. This region is the one where the estimate of inferred parameters is most stable. In order to illustrate these points, we discuss inference of interacting point processes with application to financial data and show that sensible choices of observation time scales naturally yield models which are close to criticality.

  3. On the criticality of inferred models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Marsili, Matteo

    2011-01-01

    Advanced inference techniques allow one to reconstruct a pattern of interaction from high dimensional data sets, from probing simultaneously thousands of units of extended systems—such as cells, neural tissues and financial markets. We focus here on the statistical properties of inferred models and argue that inference procedures are likely to yield models which are close to singular values of parameters, akin to critical points in physics where phase transitions occur. These are points where the response of physical systems to external perturbations, as measured by the susceptibility, is very large and diverges in the limit of infinite size. We show that the reparameterization invariant metrics in the space of probability distributions of these models (the Fisher information) are directly related to the susceptibility of the inferred model. As a result, distinguishable models tend to accumulate close to critical points, where the susceptibility diverges in infinite systems. This region is the one where the estimate of inferred parameters is most stable. In order to illustrate these points, we discuss inference of interacting point processes with application to financial data and show that sensible choices of observation time scales naturally yield models which are close to criticality

  4. Polynomial Chaos Surrogates for Bayesian Inference

    KAUST Repository

    Le Maitre, Olivier

    2016-01-06

    The Bayesian inference is a popular probabilistic method to solve inverse problems, such as the identification of field parameter in a PDE model. The inference rely on the Bayes rule to update the prior density of the sought field, from observations, and derive its posterior distribution. In most cases the posterior distribution has no explicit form and has to be sampled, for instance using a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo method. In practice the prior field parameter is decomposed and truncated (e.g. by means of Karhunen- Lo´eve decomposition) to recast the inference problem into the inference of a finite number of coordinates. Although proved effective in many situations, the Bayesian inference as sketched above faces several difficulties requiring improvements. First, sampling the posterior can be a extremely costly task as it requires multiple resolutions of the PDE model for different values of the field parameter. Second, when the observations are not very much informative, the inferred parameter field can highly depends on its prior which can be somehow arbitrary. These issues have motivated the introduction of reduced modeling or surrogates for the (approximate) determination of the parametrized PDE solution and hyperparameters in the description of the prior field. Our contribution focuses on recent developments in these two directions: the acceleration of the posterior sampling by means of Polynomial Chaos expansions and the efficient treatment of parametrized covariance functions for the prior field. We also discuss the possibility of making such approach adaptive to further improve its efficiency.

  5. A Bayesian Network Schema for Lessening Database Inference

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Chang, LiWu; Moskowitz, Ira S

    2001-01-01

    .... The authors introduce a formal schema for database inference analysis, based upon a Bayesian network structure, which identifies critical parameters involved in the inference problem and represents...

  6. New interpretations based on seismic and modelled well data and their implications for the tectonic evolution of the west Greenland continental margin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mcgregor, E.D.; Nielsen, S.B.; Stephenson, R.A.

    Davis Strait is situated between Baffin Island and Greenland and forms part of a sedimentary basin system, linking Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay, developed during Cretaceous and Palaeocene rifting that culminated in a brief period of sea-floor spreading in the late Palaeocene and Eocene. Seismic...... reflection profiles and exploration wells along the Greenland margin of Davis Strait have been analysed in order to elucidate uplift events affecting sedimentary basin development during the Cenozoic with a focus on postulated Neogene (tectonic) uplift affecting the west Greenland continental margin...... tectonic event. An interpretation in which the inferred onshore cooling is related to erosion of pre-existing topography is more consistent with our new results from the offshore region. These results will have important implications for other continental margins developed throughout the Atlantic...

  7. Island solution; Inselloesung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bah, Isaac

    2013-06-15

    On the Azores island Graciosa the Berlin-based company Younicos has installed a new electricity system with advanced storage technology, which will make the islanders independent from fossil fuels. With an energy mix of wind power, photovoltaics and biomass the dependence on fossil fuels should be terminated. In the center of the flagship project specifically developed hybrid batteries are used (combination of sodium-sulfur- and lithium-ion batteries) with 2.7 MW of power and a storage capacity of ten megawatts hours. [German] Auf der Azoren-Insel Graciosa installiert das Berliner Unternehmen Younicos ein neues Stromsystem mit modernster Speichertechnologie, das die Bewohner unabhaengig von fossilen Energietraegern machen soll. Mit einem Energiemix aus Windkraft, Photovoltaik und Biomasse soll die Abhaengigkeit von fossilen Brennstoffen beendet werden. Im Zentrum des Vorzeigeprojekts stehen speziell fuer den Inseleinsatz entwickelte Hybridbatterien (Kombination aus Natrium-Schwefel- und Lithium-Ionen-Akkus) mit 2,7 Megawatt Leistung und eine Speicherkapazitaet von zehn Megawattestunden.

  8. Urban heat island 1

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bühler, Oliver; Jensen, Marina Bergen; Petersen, Karen Sejr

    2010-01-01

    Urban Heat Island beskriver det forhold, at temperaturen i byområder er højere end temperaturen i tilgrænsede landområder. Årsagen hertil ligger i den urbane arealanvendelse, hvor en mindre andel af arealerne er dækket af vegetation, og en større andel består af forseglede arealer.......Urban Heat Island beskriver det forhold, at temperaturen i byområder er højere end temperaturen i tilgrænsede landområder. Årsagen hertil ligger i den urbane arealanvendelse, hvor en mindre andel af arealerne er dækket af vegetation, og en større andel består af forseglede arealer....

  9. Charge Islands Through Tunneling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Daryl C.

    2002-01-01

    It has been recently reported that the electrical charge in a semiconductive carbon nanotube is not evenly distributed, but rather it is divided into charge "islands." This paper links the aforementioned phenomenon to tunneling and provides further insight into the higher rate of tunneling processes, which makes tunneling devices attractive. This paper also provides a basis for calculating the charge profile over the length of the tube so that nanoscale devices' conductive properties may be fully exploited.

  10. Islands in the Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Bagina

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Today’s China is an outpost of modern western architecture. All famous architects and firms build here. Having lost their historical context, the objects of traditional Chinese architecture become islands in the ocean of new development. Their destiny is controversial. Architectural masterpieces are perceived in a superficial manner not only by tourists, but also by local people. The link of times that used to be cherished in Chinese culture is being broken today.

  11. A small cohort of Island Southeast Asian women founded Madagascar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Murray P; Nelson, Michael G; Tumonggor, Meryanne K; Ricaut, François-X; Sudoyo, Herawati

    2012-07-22

    The settlement of Madagascar is one of the most unusual, and least understood, episodes in human prehistory. Madagascar was one of the last landmasses to be reached by people, and despite the island's location just off the east coast of Africa, evidence from genetics, language and culture all attests that it was settled jointly by Africans, and more surprisingly, Indonesians. Nevertheless, extremely little is known about the settlement process itself. Here, we report broad geographical screening of Malagasy and Indonesian genetic variation, from which we infer a statistically robust coalescent model of the island's initial settlement. Maximum-likelihood estimates favour a scenario in which Madagascar was settled approximately 1200 years ago by a very small group of women (approx. 30), most of Indonesian descent (approx. 93%). This highly restricted founding population raises the possibility that Madagascar was settled not as a large-scale planned colonization event from Indonesia, but rather through a small, perhaps even unintended, transoceanic crossing.

  12. Divergent evolutionary processes associated with colonization of offshore islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínková, Natália; Barnett, Ross; Cucchi, Thomas; Struchen, Rahel; Pascal, Marine; Pascal, Michel; Fischer, Martin C; Higham, Thomas; Brace, Selina; Ho, Simon Y W; Quéré, Jean-Pierre; O'Higgins, Paul; Excoffier, Laurent; Heckel, Gerald; Hoelzel, A Rus; Dobney, Keith M; Searle, Jeremy B

    2013-10-01

    Oceanic islands have been a test ground for evolutionary theory, but here, we focus on the possibilities for evolutionary study created by offshore islands. These can be colonized through various means and by a wide range of species, including those with low dispersal capabilities. We use morphology, modern and ancient sequences of cytochrome b (cytb) and microsatellite genotypes to examine colonization history and evolutionary change associated with occupation of the Orkney archipelago by the common vole (Microtus arvalis), a species found in continental Europe but not in Britain. Among possible colonization scenarios, our results are most consistent with human introduction at least 5100 bp (confirmed by radiocarbon dating). We used approximate Bayesian computation of population history to infer the coast of Belgium as the possible source and estimated the evolutionary timescale using a Bayesian coalescent approach. We showed substantial morphological divergence of the island populations, including a size increase presumably driven by selection and reduced microsatellite variation likely reflecting founder events and genetic drift. More surprisingly, our results suggest that a recent and widespread cytb replacement event in the continental source area purged cytb variation there, whereas the ancestral diversity is largely retained in the colonized islands as a genetic 'ark'. The replacement event in the continental M. arvalis was probably triggered by anthropogenic causes (land-use change). Our studies illustrate that small offshore islands can act as field laboratories for studying various evolutionary processes over relatively short timescales, informing about the mainland source area as well as the island. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. An analysis of the Three Mile Island accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brooks, G.L.; Siddal, E.

    1980-09-01

    Starting with a systematic analysis of the chain of events that took place during the Three Mile Island accident, the authors assess the significance of the four distinct phases of the accident. Inferences that can be drawn with respect to the safety of CANDU reactors are discussed. A rational reaction to the accident is suggested, and several factors are shown not to have played an important part, contrary to public impressions. The authors point out that over-reaction to the accident could detract from public safety. The Canadian response to the accident is discussed. (auth)

  14. The Flooding of Long Island Sound

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, E.; Varekamp, J. C.; Lewis, R. S.

    2007-12-01

    Between the Last Glacial Maximum (22-19 ka) and the Holocene (10 ka) regions marginal to the Laurentide Ice Sheets saw complex environmental changes from moraines to lake basins to dry land to estuaries and marginal ocean basins, as a result of the interplay between the topography of moraines formed at the maximum extent and during stages of the retreat of the ice sheet, regional glacial rebound, and global eustatic sea level rise. In New England, the history of deglaciation and relative sea level rise has been studied extensively, and the sequence of events has been documented in detail. The Laurentide Ice Sheet reached its maximum extent (Long Island) at 21.3-20.4 ka according to radiocarbon dating (calibrated ages), 19.0-18.4 ka according to radionuclide dating. Periglacial Lake Connecticut formed behind the moraines in what is now the Long Island Sound Basin. The lake drained through the moraine at its eastern end. Seismic records show that a fluvial system was cut into the exposed lake beds, and a wave-cut unconformity was produced during the marine flooding, which has been inferred to have occurred at about 15.5 ka (Melt Water Pulse 1A) through correlation with dated events on land. Vibracores from eastern Long Island Sound penetrate the unconformity and contain red, varved lake beds overlain by marine grey sands and silts with a dense concentration of oysters in life position above the erosional contact. The marine sediments consist of intertidal to shallow subtidal deposits with oysters, shallow-water foraminifera and litoral diatoms, overlain by somewhat laminated sandy silts, in turn overlain by coarser-grained, sandy to silty sediments with reworked foraminifera and bivalve fragments. The latter may have been deposited in a sand-wave environment as present today at the core locations. We provide direct age control of the transgression with 30 radiocarbon dates on oysters, and compared the ages with those obtained on macrophytes and bulk organic carbon in

  15. MARICULTURE ON CROATIAN ISLANDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordana Šarušić

    2000-09-01

    Full Text Available The first attempts of intensive mariculture in Croatia commenced at the very beginning of 1980’s. The mid-eighties brought an expansion of mariculture production, which has been continuously increasing. A few different marine organisms are intensively cultured - both fish and shellfish. Among them commercially most important and highly valued species are sea bass Dicentrarchus labrax and sea bream Sparus aurata. Mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis and oyster Ostrea edulis are the most important shellfish. Fish species such as dentex Dentex dentex, red sea bream Pagrus major and sheepshead bream Puntazzo puntazzo are reared too, but in a rather small quantities. Only recently the rearing, on-growing- of bluefin tuna Thunnus thynnus started in Croatia. The juveniles (70% are reared in a Croatian hatcheries, and 30% has to be imported mainly from Italy and France, due to a higher demand for this kind of culture among the small growers. Croatian part of Adriatic sea possesses a number of geomorfologicaly suitable sites and meteorological conditions which determined the choice - type - of intensive culture. All fish species are reared in a floating cages. The choice of cages i. e. semi off-shore or floating frames, size, rearing volume and design depend on the investors personal preference. The annual turnouf of a market size bass was about 600t and 300t bream in 1996., by 10 island farms which is 70% of total production in Croatia. Including other cultured fish species last year production was up to 1000t, and it™s being estimated to be about 1300t in the following year. The shellfish production on the islands is usually individual attempt of farmers, producing minor quantities mostly in polyculture. This production has bigger potential but it’s limited owing to the EU quality control regulations which do not allow the export, and by domestic market which has drastically decreased due to the collapse of tourism during the recent war. Almost 80

  16. A formal model of interpersonal inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael eMoutoussis

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: We propose that active Bayesian inference – a general framework for decision-making – can equally be applied to interpersonal exchanges. Social cognition, however, entails special challenges. We address these challenges through a novel formulation of a formal model and demonstrate its psychological significance. Method: We review relevant literature, especially with regards to interpersonal representations, formulate a mathematical model and present a simulation study. The model accommodates normative models from utility theory and places them within the broader setting of Bayesian inference. Crucially, we endow people's prior beliefs, into which utilities are absorbed, with preferences of self and others. The simulation illustrates the model's dynamics and furnishes elementary predictions of the theory. Results: 1. Because beliefs about self and others inform both the desirability and plausibility of outcomes, in this framework interpersonal representations become beliefs that have to be actively inferred. This inference, akin to 'mentalising' in the psychological literature, is based upon the outcomes of interpersonal exchanges. 2. We show how some well-known social-psychological phenomena (e.g. self-serving biases can be explained in terms of active interpersonal inference. 3. Mentalising naturally entails Bayesian updating of how people value social outcomes. Crucially this includes inference about one’s own qualities and preferences. Conclusion: We inaugurate a Bayes optimal framework for modelling intersubject variability in mentalising during interpersonal exchanges. Here, interpersonal representations are endowed with explicit functional and affective properties. We suggest the active inference framework lends itself to the study of psychiatric conditions where mentalising is distorted.

  17. Self-sustained magnetic islands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chatenet, J H; Luciani, J F [Ecole Polytechnique, 91 - Palaiseau (France); Garbet, X [Association Euratom-CEA, Centre d` Etudes de Cadarache, 13 - Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France). Dept. de Recherches sur la Fusion Controlee

    1996-06-01

    Numerical simulations of a single magnetic island evolution are presented in the regime where the island width is smaller than an ion Larmor radius. It is shown that the island rotation is controlled by particle diffusion due to collisions or a background of microturbulence. As expected from the theory of a stationary island, there exist cases where linearly stable magnetic perturbation are nonlinearly self-sustained. This situation corresponds to large poloidal beta and temperature gradient. The drive is due to diamagnetic frequency effects. However, this situation is not generic, and islands can also decay. It is found that a magnetic island is self-sustained for a negative off-diagonal diffusion coefficient. This case occurs in a tokamak if the inward particle pinch is due to the temperature gradient. (author). 30 refs.

  18. Self-sustained magnetic islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chatenet, J.H.; Luciani, J.F.; Garbet, X.

    1996-06-01

    Numerical simulations of a single magnetic island evolution are presented in the regime where the island width is smaller than an ion Larmor radius. It is shown that the island rotation is controlled by particle diffusion due to collisions or a background of microturbulence. As expected from the theory of a stationary island, there exist cases where linearly stable magnetic perturbation are nonlinearly self-sustained. This situation corresponds to large poloidal beta and temperature gradient. The drive is due to diamagnetic frequency effects. However, this situation is not generic, and islands can also decay. It is found that a magnetic island is self-sustained for a negative off-diagonal diffusion coefficient. This case occurs in a tokamak if the inward particle pinch is due to the temperature gradient. (author)

  19. Estimating uncertainty of inference for validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Langenbrunner, James R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

    2010-09-30

    We present a validation process based upon the concept that validation is an inference-making activity. This has always been true, but the association has not been as important before as it is now. Previously, theory had been confirmed by more data, and predictions were possible based on data. The process today is to infer from theory to code and from code to prediction, making the role of prediction somewhat automatic, and a machine function. Validation is defined as determining the degree to which a model and code is an accurate representation of experimental test data. Imbedded in validation is the intention to use the computer code to predict. To predict is to accept the conclusion that an observable final state will manifest; therefore, prediction is an inference whose goodness relies on the validity of the code. Quantifying the uncertainty of a prediction amounts to quantifying the uncertainty of validation, and this involves the characterization of uncertainties inherent in theory/models/codes and the corresponding data. An introduction to inference making and its associated uncertainty is provided as a foundation for the validation problem. A mathematical construction for estimating the uncertainty in the validation inference is then presented, including a possibility distribution constructed to represent the inference uncertainty for validation under uncertainty. The estimation of inference uncertainty for validation is illustrated using data and calculations from Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). The ICF measurements of neutron yield and ion temperature were obtained for direct-drive inertial fusion capsules at the Omega laser facility. The glass capsules, containing the fusion gas, were systematically selected with the intent of establishing a reproducible baseline of high-yield 10{sup 13}-10{sup 14} neutron output. The deuterium-tritium ratio in these experiments was varied to study its influence upon yield. This paper on validation inference is the

  20. Demographic Ageing on Croatian Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivo Nejašmić

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the changes in the population structure of the Croatian islands by age, warns of the degree of ageing, provides spatial differentiation of this process and presents perspective of ageing at the level of settlement. Typing of population ageing is based on scores and has seven types. The total island population in 2011 belongs to the type 5 – very old population. Almost a half of the settlements (out of 303 have been affected by the highest levels of ageing (types 6 and 7. It was found that a quarter of island settlements will become “dead villages” in a foreseeable future; most of them are on small islands but also in the interior of larger islands. These are villages decaying in every respect, in which the way of life, as we know it, veins and goes out. The present ageing villagers are their last residents in most cases. Eve¬rything suggests that demographic recovery of the islands is not possible with the forces in situ. It is important to strike a balance between the needs and opportunities in order to successfully organize life on the islands, both small and large ones, and the fact is that there is a continuing disparity, which is especially profound in small islands. A sensitive and selective approach is needed to overcome the unfavourable demographic trends. Therefore it is necessary to respect the particularities of indi¬vidual islands and island groups in devising development strategy. Solutions to the problems must come of the local and wider community in synergy with relevant professional and scientific institutions. However, if the solutions are not found or measures do not give results, if the islands are left to desorganisation and senilisation, a part of the islands will become a wasteland. With regard to the value of this area whose wealth are people in the first place, this would be an intolerable civilization decline.

  1. Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehan, Sara; Song, Yun S

    2016-03-01

    Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data) to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest). We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history). Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep) or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme.

  2. Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Sheehan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest. We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history. Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme.

  3. Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehan, Sara; Song, Yun S.

    2016-01-01

    Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data) to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest). We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history). Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep) or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme. PMID:27018908

  4. Inferring Phylogenetic Networks Using PhyloNet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Dingqiao; Yu, Yun; Zhu, Jiafan; Nakhleh, Luay

    2018-07-01

    PhyloNet was released in 2008 as a software package for representing and analyzing phylogenetic networks. At the time of its release, the main functionalities in PhyloNet consisted of measures for comparing network topologies and a single heuristic for reconciling gene trees with a species tree. Since then, PhyloNet has grown significantly. The software package now includes a wide array of methods for inferring phylogenetic networks from data sets of unlinked loci while accounting for both reticulation (e.g., hybridization) and incomplete lineage sorting. In particular, PhyloNet now allows for maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian inference of phylogenetic networks from gene tree estimates. Furthermore, Bayesian inference directly from sequence data (sequence alignments or biallelic markers) is implemented. Maximum parsimony is based on an extension of the "minimizing deep coalescences" criterion to phylogenetic networks, whereas maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference are based on the multispecies network coalescent. All methods allow for multiple individuals per species. As computing the likelihood of a phylogenetic network is computationally hard, PhyloNet allows for evaluation and inference of networks using a pseudolikelihood measure. PhyloNet summarizes the results of the various analyzes and generates phylogenetic networks in the extended Newick format that is readily viewable by existing visualization software.

  5. Renewable energy islands in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oestergaard, Iben [ed.

    1998-12-31

    This publication includes a compiled presentation of various aspects concerning the possible transformation of some European islands into renewable energy communities and these projects were presented by a selection of pioneer islands at the first European Seminar on Renewable Energy Islands, held on the Danish island of Samsoee, 29-30 June 1998. This issue has increased in importance with the presentation of the ambitious EU-White Paper: `Energy for the future: Renewable Sources of Energy` which was adopted in 1998. One of the key elements of the strategy for an accelerated implementation of renewable energy is to transform 100 localities within Europe into communities which are to be 100% self-sufficient with renewable energy before 2010. In line with this strategy, the Danish Government appointed the island of Samsoe towards the end of 1997 to be the first `official` Danish, renewable energy island. This is to serve as a demonstration project for other local communities, both in Denmark as well as in the rest Europe. Gothland, Madeira, Canary Islands, Cape Verde, Arki, Crete, Minorca and Orkney Islands were represented. Environmental advantages of wind, solar and wave power for distant island communities were indicated. Serious savings would be achieved by limitation of fossil fuel import and utilization of local resources. (EG)

  6. Goal inferences about robot behavior : goal inferences and human response behaviors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broers, H.A.T.; Ham, J.R.C.; Broeders, R.; De Silva, P.; Okada, M.

    2014-01-01

    This explorative research focused on the goal inferences human observers draw based on a robot's behavior, and the extent to which those inferences predict people's behavior in response to that robot. Results show that different robot behaviors cause different response behavior from people.

  7. Using Alien Coins to Test Whether Simple Inference Is Bayesian

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassey, Peter; Hawkins, Guy E.; Donkin, Chris; Brown, Scott D.

    2016-01-01

    Reasoning and inference are well-studied aspects of basic cognition that have been explained as statistically optimal Bayesian inference. Using a simplified experimental design, we conducted quantitative comparisons between Bayesian inference and human inference at the level of individuals. In 3 experiments, with more than 13,000 participants, we…

  8. ACCELERATED EVOLUTION OF LAND SNAILS MANDARINA IN THE OCEANIC BONIN ISLANDS: EVIDENCE FROM MITOCHONDRIAL DNA SEQUENCES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiba, Satoshi

    1999-04-01

    An endemic land snail genus Mandarina of the oceanic Bonin (Ogasawara) Islands shows exceptionally rapid evolution not only of morphological and ecological traits, but of DNA sequence. A phylogenetic relationship based on mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences suggests that morphological differences equivalent to the differences between families were produced between Mandarina and its ancestor during the Pleistocene. The inferred phylogeny shows that species with similar morphologies and life habitats appeared repeatedly and independently in different lineages and islands at different times. Sequential adaptive radiations occurred in different islands of the Bonin Islands and species occupying arboreal, semiarboreal, and terrestrial habitat arose independently in each island. Because of a close relationship between shell morphology and life habitat, independent evolution of the same life habitat in different islands created species possesing the same shell morphology in different islands and lineages. This rapid evolution produced some incongruences between phylogenetic relationship and species taxonomy. Levels of sequence divergence of mtDNA among the species of Mandarina is extremely high. The maximum level of sequence divergence at 16S and 12S ribosomal RNA sequence within Mandarina are 18.7% and 17.7%, respectively, and this suggests that evolution of mtDNA of Mandarina is extremely rapid, more than 20 times faster than the standard rate in other animals. The present examination reveals that evolution of morphological and ecological traits occurs at extremely high rates in the time of adaptive radiation, especially in fragmented environments. © 1999 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  9. Pliocene-Quaternary history of Futuna island, south Vanuatu, southwest Pacific

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neef, G.; McCulloch, M.T.

    2001-01-01

    Uranium-series ages from thermal ionisation mass spectrometry are reported here for the raised coral reefs of Futuna Island, which lies adjacent to the eastern margin of the backarc Futuna Trough in south Vanuatu, southwest Pacific. U-series ages from coral from the lowest raised reef indicate that its upper part is most likely to be ca 210 ka, whereas the most elevated raised reef has a likely age of ca 520 ka (range 600-440 ka). The inferred Pliocene-Quaternary history for Futuna Island and the adjacent Futuna Trough is: (i) formation of the Pliocene - Early Quaternary basaltic-andesite cone in a southeast part of the Vanuatu Island Arc; (ii) inception of the Futuna Trough (adjacent to the west margin of Futuna Island) since 1.8Ma; (iii) subsequent uplift of the volcanic cone above sea-level caused ∼ 500 m of its upper part to be removed by marine erosion; (iv) the island then subsided and at least 160 m of limestone was deposited on the truncated cone; and (v) during the period 520 ka to ca 210 ka seven fringing reefs formed at the margin of the cone as the island was uplifted. Since ca 210 ka Futuna further subsided and, as a result, the post ca 210 ka history of the island is obscure. Copyright (2001) Geological Society of Australia

  10. Vertical and lateral ordering of Ge islands grown on Si(001): theory and experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montalenti, F; Marzegalli, A; Capellini, G; Seta, M De; Miglio, Leo

    2007-01-01

    A set of recent results concerning lateral and vertical ordering of Ge islands grown on Si(001) is reviewed. Experimental data generated by chemical vapour deposition and analysed by atomic force microscopy and photoelectron spectroscopy are compared with computer simulations and modelling based on atomistic approaches and continuum theory. In particular, we show that it is possible to probe experimentally the detailed strain field generated by buried Ge islands at the surface of the Si capping layer. The observed arrangement of small Ge islands grown over the capping layer is demonstrated to be very close to the one predicted by a simple model where the local chemical potential is inferred from the strain field at the atomic scale, as given by Tersoff-potential molecular dynamics simulations. Moreover, we review recent experimental evidence for lateral ordering, triggered by partial Si capping, in the first layer of Ge islands on Si(001). Theoretical support is given by showing that when two islands lie in close proximity the elastic field is likely to generate a flow of atoms leading to an effective gliding motion along opposite directions of both islands, eventually stopped by the presence of further neighbouring islands

  11. The genetic assimilation in language borrowing inferred from Jing People.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Xiufeng; Zhou, Qinghui; Bin, Xiaoyun; Lai, Shu; Lin, Chaowen; Hu, Rong; Xiao, Jiashun; Luo, Dajun; Li, Yingxiang; Wei, Lan-Hai; Yeh, Hui-Yuan; Chen, Gang; Wang, Chuan-Chao

    2018-02-28

    The Jing people are a recognized ethnic group in Guangxi, southwest China, who are the immigrants from Vietnam during the 16th century. They speak Vietnamese but with lots of language borrowings from Cantonese, Zhuang, and Mandarin. However, it's unclear if there is large-scale gene flow from surrounding populations into Jing people during their language change due to the very limited genetic information of this population. We collected blood samples from 37 Jing and 3 Han Chinese individuals from Wanwei, Shanxin, and Wutou islands in Guangxi and genotyped about 600,000 genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We used Principal Component Analysis (PCA), ADMIXTURE analysis, f statistics, qpWave and qpAdm to infer the population genetic structure and admixture. Our data revealed that the Jing people are genetically similar to the populations in southwest China and mainland Southeast Asia. But compared with Vietnamese, they show significant evidence of gene flow from surrounding East Asians. The admixture proportion is estimated to be around 35-42% in different Jing groups using southern Han Chinese as a proxy. The majority of the paternal lineages of Jing people are most likely from surrounding East Asians. We conclude that the formation and language change of present-day Jing people have involved genetic assimilation of surrounding East Asian populations. The language borrowing, in this case, is not only a cultural phenomenon but has involved demic diffusion. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Explanatory Preferences Shape Learning and Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombrozo, Tania

    2016-10-01

    Explanations play an important role in learning and inference. People often learn by seeking explanations, and they assess the viability of hypotheses by considering how well they explain the data. An emerging body of work reveals that both children and adults have strong and systematic intuitions about what constitutes a good explanation, and that these explanatory preferences have a systematic impact on explanation-based processes. In particular, people favor explanations that are simple and broad, with the consequence that engaging in explanation can shape learning and inference by leading people to seek patterns and favor hypotheses that support broad and simple explanations. Given the prevalence of explanation in everyday cognition, understanding explanation is therefore crucial to understanding learning and inference. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Fuzzy logic controller using different inference methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Z.; De Keyser, R.

    1994-01-01

    In this paper the design of fuzzy controllers by using different inference methods is introduced. Configuration of the fuzzy controllers includes a general rule-base which is a collection of fuzzy PI or PD rules, the triangular fuzzy data model and a centre of gravity defuzzification algorithm. The generalized modus ponens (GMP) is used with the minimum operator of the triangular norm. Under the sup-min inference rule, six fuzzy implication operators are employed to calculate the fuzzy look-up tables for each rule base. The performance is tested in simulated systems with MATLAB/SIMULINK. Results show the effects of using the fuzzy controllers with different inference methods and applied to different test processes

  14. Uncertainty in prediction and in inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hilgevoord, J.; Uffink, J.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts of uncertainty in prediction and inference are introduced and illustrated using the diffraction of light as an example. The close relationship between the concepts of uncertainty in inference and resolving power is noted. A general quantitative measure of uncertainty in inference can be obtained by means of the so-called statistical distance between probability distributions. When applied to quantum mechanics, this distance leads to a measure of the distinguishability of quantum states, which essentially is the absolute value of the matrix element between the states. The importance of this result to the quantum mechanical uncertainty principle is noted. The second part of the paper provides a derivation of the statistical distance on the basis of the so-called method of support

  15. A Learning Algorithm for Multimodal Grammar Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Ulizia, A; Ferri, F; Grifoni, P

    2011-12-01

    The high costs of development and maintenance of multimodal grammars in integrating and understanding input in multimodal interfaces lead to the investigation of novel algorithmic solutions in automating grammar generation and in updating processes. Many algorithms for context-free grammar inference have been developed in the natural language processing literature. An extension of these algorithms toward the inference of multimodal grammars is necessary for multimodal input processing. In this paper, we propose a novel grammar inference mechanism that allows us to learn a multimodal grammar from its positive samples of multimodal sentences. The algorithm first generates the multimodal grammar that is able to parse the positive samples of sentences and, afterward, makes use of two learning operators and the minimum description length metrics in improving the grammar description and in avoiding the over-generalization problem. The experimental results highlight the acceptable performances of the algorithm proposed in this paper since it has a very high probability of parsing valid sentences.

  16. Examples in parametric inference with R

    CERN Document Server

    Dixit, Ulhas Jayram

    2016-01-01

    This book discusses examples in parametric inference with R. Combining basic theory with modern approaches, it presents the latest developments and trends in statistical inference for students who do not have an advanced mathematical and statistical background. The topics discussed in the book are fundamental and common to many fields of statistical inference and thus serve as a point of departure for in-depth study. The book is divided into eight chapters: Chapter 1 provides an overview of topics on sufficiency and completeness, while Chapter 2 briefly discusses unbiased estimation. Chapter 3 focuses on the study of moments and maximum likelihood estimators, and Chapter 4 presents bounds for the variance. In Chapter 5, topics on consistent estimator are discussed. Chapter 6 discusses Bayes, while Chapter 7 studies some more powerful tests. Lastly, Chapter 8 examines unbiased and other tests. Senior undergraduate and graduate students in statistics and mathematics, and those who have taken an introductory cou...

  17. Grammatical inference algorithms, routines and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Wieczorek, Wojciech

    2017-01-01

    This book focuses on grammatical inference, presenting classic and modern methods of grammatical inference from the perspective of practitioners. To do so, it employs the Python programming language to present all of the methods discussed. Grammatical inference is a field that lies at the intersection of multiple disciplines, with contributions from computational linguistics, pattern recognition, machine learning, computational biology, formal learning theory and many others. Though the book is largely practical, it also includes elements of learning theory, combinatorics on words, the theory of automata and formal languages, plus references to real-world problems. The listings presented here can be directly copied and pasted into other programs, thus making the book a valuable source of ready recipes for students, academic researchers, and programmers alike, as well as an inspiration for their further development.>.

  18. Statistical inference based on divergence measures

    CERN Document Server

    Pardo, Leandro

    2005-01-01

    The idea of using functionals of Information Theory, such as entropies or divergences, in statistical inference is not new. However, in spite of the fact that divergence statistics have become a very good alternative to the classical likelihood ratio test and the Pearson-type statistic in discrete models, many statisticians remain unaware of this powerful approach.Statistical Inference Based on Divergence Measures explores classical problems of statistical inference, such as estimation and hypothesis testing, on the basis of measures of entropy and divergence. The first two chapters form an overview, from a statistical perspective, of the most important measures of entropy and divergence and study their properties. The author then examines the statistical analysis of discrete multivariate data with emphasis is on problems in contingency tables and loglinear models using phi-divergence test statistics as well as minimum phi-divergence estimators. The final chapter looks at testing in general populations, prese...

  19. Organizations as Designed Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pasquale Gagliardi

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The literature and practice of organizational design are mostly based on simplistic conceptions which ignore recent theoretical developments in organizational studies. Conceiving of organizations as ‘designed islands’, it is argued, can contribute to a more solid theoretical foundation to organization theory, viewed as normative science. Relying on the work of Peter Sloterdijk, who describes the forms of life in space in terms of spheres, the heuristic power of the island metaphor is explored. What can be learnt from the art of isolating in order to construct lived organizational environments is then discussed, and the paradoxical relationship between connection and isolation is highlighted.

  20. Three Mile Island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wood, M.S.; Shultz, S.M.

    1988-01-01

    This bibliography is divided into the following categories: Accident Overviews, Sequence and Causes; International Commentary and Reaction; Emergency Preparedness and Disaster Planning; Health Effects; Radioactive Releases and the Environment; Accident Investigations/Commissions; Nuclear Industry: Safety, Occupational, and Financial Issues; Media and Communications; Cleanup; Sociopolitical Response and Commentary; Restart; Legal Ramifications; Federal Documents: President's Commission on the Accident at Three Mile Island; Federal Documents: Nuclear Regulatory Commission; Federal Documents: United States Department of Energy; Federal Documents: Miscellaneous Reports; Pennsylvania State Documents; Federal and State Hearings; and Popular Literature

  1. Weather In Some Islands

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王良华

    2007-01-01

    There are four seasons in a year. When spring comes, the weather is mild(温和的). Summer comes after spring. Summer is the hottest season of the year. Autumn follows summer. It is the best season of the year. Winter is the coldest season of the year. Some islands(岛) have their own particular(特别的) seasons because their weather is very much affected(影响) by the oceans(海洋) around them. In Britain, winter is not very cold and summer is not very hot.

  2. Islands and non-islands in native and heritage Korean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boyoung eKim

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available To a large extent, island phenomena are cross-linguistically invariable, but English and Korean present some striking differences in this domain. English has wh-movement and Korean does not, and while both languages show sensitivity to wh-islands, only English has island effects for adjunct clauses. Given this complex set of differences, one might expect Korean/English bilinguals, and especially heritage Korean speakers (i.e. early bilinguals whose L2 became their dominant language during childhood to be different from native speakers, since heritage speakers have had more limited exposure to Korean, may have had incomplete acquisition and/or attrition, and may show significant transfer effects from the L2. Here we examine islands in heritage speakers of Korean in the U.S. Through a series of four formal acceptability experiments comparing these heritage speakers with native speakers residing in Korea, we show that the two groups are remarkably similar. Both show clear evidence for wh-islands and an equally clear lack of adjunct island effects. Given the very different linguistic environment that the heritage speakers have had since early childhood, this result lends support to the idea that island phenomena are largely immune to environmental influences and stem from deeper properties of the processor and/or grammar. Similarly, it casts some doubt on recent proposals that islands are learned from the input.

  3. Improved Inference of Heteroscedastic Fixed Effects Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Afshan Saeed

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Heteroscedasticity is a stern problem that distorts estimation and testing of panel data model (PDM. Arellano (1987 proposed the White (1980 estimator for PDM with heteroscedastic errors but it provides erroneous inference for the data sets including high leverage points. In this paper, our attempt is to improve heteroscedastic consistent covariance matrix estimator (HCCME for panel dataset with high leverage points. To draw robust inference for the PDM, our focus is to improve kernel bootstrap estimators, proposed by Racine and MacKinnon (2007. The Monte Carlo scheme is used for assertion of the results.

  4. Likelihood inference for unions of interacting discs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Helisova, K.

    2010-01-01

    This is probably the first paper which discusses likelihood inference for a random set using a germ-grain model, where the individual grains are unobservable, edge effects occur and other complications appear. We consider the case where the grains form a disc process modelled by a marked point...... process, where the germs are the centres and the marks are the associated radii of the discs. We propose to use a recent parametric class of interacting disc process models, where the minimal sufficient statistic depends on various geometric properties of the random set, and the density is specified......-based maximum likelihood inference and the effect of specifying different reference Poisson models....

  5. IMAGINE: Interstellar MAGnetic field INference Engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steininger, Theo

    2018-03-01

    IMAGINE (Interstellar MAGnetic field INference Engine) performs inference on generic parametric models of the Galaxy. The modular open source framework uses highly optimized tools and technology such as the MultiNest sampler (ascl:1109.006) and the information field theory framework NIFTy (ascl:1302.013) to create an instance of the Milky Way based on a set of parameters for physical observables, using Bayesian statistics to judge the mismatch between measured data and model prediction. The flexibility of the IMAGINE framework allows for simple refitting for newly available data sets and makes state-of-the-art Bayesian methods easily accessible particularly for random components of the Galactic magnetic field.

  6. Inferring causality from noisy time series data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mønster, Dan; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian

    2016-01-01

    Convergent Cross-Mapping (CCM) has shown high potential to perform causal inference in the absence of models. We assess the strengths and weaknesses of the method by varying coupling strength and noise levels in coupled logistic maps. We find that CCM fails to infer accurate coupling strength...... and even causality direction in synchronized time-series and in the presence of intermediate coupling. We find that the presence of noise deterministically reduces the level of cross-mapping fidelity, while the convergence rate exhibits higher levels of robustness. Finally, we propose that controlled noise...

  7. Enjebi Island dose assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robison, W.L.; Conrado, C.L.; Phillips, W.A.

    1987-07-01

    We have updeated the radiological dose assessment for Enjebi Island at Enewetak Atoll using data derived from analysis of food crops grown on Enjebi. This is a much more precise assessment of potential doses to people resettling Enjebi Island than the 1980 assessment in which there were no data available from food crops on Enjebi. Details of the methods and data used to evaluate each exposure pathway are presented. The terrestrial food chain is the most significant potential exposure pathway and 137 Cs is the radionuclide responsible for most of the estimated dose over the next 50 y. The doses are calculated assuming a resettlement date of 1990. The average wholebody maximum annual estimated dose equivalent derived using our diet model is 166 mremy;the effective dose equivalent is 169 mremy. The estimated 30-, 50-, and 70-y integral whole-body dose equivalents are 3.5 rem, 5.1 rem, and 6.2 rem, respectively. Bone-marrow dose equivalents are only slightly higher than the whole-body estimates in each case. The bone-surface cells (endosteal cells) receive the highest dose, but they are a less sensitive cell population and are less sensitive to fatal cancer induction than whole body and bone marrow. The effective dose equivalents for 30, 50, and 70 y are 3.6 rem, 5.3 rem, and 6.6 rem, respectively. 79 refs., 17 figs., 24 tabs

  8. An Island Called Cuba

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean Stubbs

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Review of: An Island Called Home: Returning to Jewish Cuba. Ruth Behar, photographs by Humberto Mayol. New Brunswick NJ: Rutgers University Press, 2007. xiii + 297 pp. (Cloth US$ 29.95 Fidel Castro: My Life: A Spoken Autobiography. Fidel Castro & Ignacio Ramonet. New York: Scribner/Simon & Schuster, 2008. vii + 724 pp. (Paper US$ 22.00, e-book US$ 14.99 Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know. Julia E. Sweig. New York: Oxford University Press, 2009. xiv + 279 pp. (Paper US$ 16.95 [First paragraph] These three ostensibly very different books tell a compelling story of each author’s approach, as much as the subject matter itself. Fidel Castro: My Life: A Spoken Autobiography is based on a series of long interviews granted by the then-president of Cuba, Fidel Castro, to Spanish-Franco journalist Ignacio Ramonet. Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, by U.S. political analyst Julia Sweig, is one of a set country series, and, like Ramonet’s, presented in question/answer format. An Island Called Home: Returning to Jewish Cuba, with a narrative by Cuban-American anthropologist Ruth Behar and photographs by Cuban photographer Humberto Mayol, is a retrospective/introspective account of the Jewish presence in Cuba. While from Ramonet and Sweig we learn much about the revolutionary project, Behar and Mayol convey the lived experience of the small Jewish community against that backdrop.

  9. Monitoring developments in island waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crellin, L.V.

    1995-01-01

    The environmental effects of islands in the Irish Sea of the offshore oil and gas industry are discussed in this paper, in particular on sand and gravel resources. This information is considered by the Department of Trade and Industry when granting prospecting, exploration and production licenses. Consultation between industry and islanders forms part of the license granting process. (UK)

  10. Islands for nuclear power stations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usher, E.F.F.W.; Fraser, A.P.

    1981-01-01

    The safety principles, design criteria and types of artificial island for an offshore nuclear power station are discussed with particular reference to siting adjacent to an industrial island. The paper concludes that the engineering problems are soluble and that offshore nuclear power stations will eventually be built but that much fundamental work is still required. (author)

  11. Islanded operation of distributed networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    This report summarises the findings of a study to investigate the regulatory, commercial and technical risks and benefits associated with the operation of distributed generation to power an islanded section of distributed network. A review of published literature was carried out, and UK generators were identified who could operate as part of an island network under the existing technical, regulatory, and safety framework. Agreement on case studies for consideration with distributed network operators (DNOs) is discussed as well as the quantification of the risks, benefits and costs of islanding, and the production of a case implementation plan for each case study. Technical issues associated with operating sections of network in islanded mode are described, and impacts of islanding on trading and settlement, and technical and commercial modelling are explored.

  12. A roadmap for island biology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Patino, Jairo; Whittaker, Robert J.; Borges, Paulo A.V.

    2017-01-01

    Aims: The 50th anniversary of the publication of the seminal book, The Theory of Island Biogeography, by Robert H. MacArthur and Edward O. Wilson, is a timely moment to review and identify key research foci that could advance island biology. Here, we take a collaborative horizon-scanning approach...... to identify 50 fundamental questions for the continued development of the field. Location: Worldwide. Methods: We adapted a well-established methodology of horizon scanning to identify priority research questions in island biology, and initiated it during the Island Biology 2016 conference held in the Azores......); global change (5); conservation and management policies (5); and invasive alien species (4). Main conclusions: Collectively, this cross-disciplinary set of topics covering the 50 fundamental questions has the potential to stimulate and guide future research in island biology. By covering fields ranging...

  13. Islanded operation of distributed networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    This report summarises the findings of a study to investigate the regulatory, commercial and technical risks and benefits associated with the operation of distributed generation to power an islanded section of distributed network. A review of published literature was carried out, and UK generators were identified who could operate as part of an island network under the existing technical, regulatory, and safety framework. Agreement on case studies for consideration with distributed network operators (DNOs) is discussed as well as the quantification of the risks, benefits and costs of islanding, and the production of a case implementation plan for each case study. Technical issues associated with operating sections of network in islanded mode are described, and impacts of islanding on trading and settlement, and technical and commercial modelling are explored

  14. Model averaging, optimal inference and habit formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas H B FitzGerald

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Postulating that the brain performs approximate Bayesian inference generates principled and empirically testable models of neuronal function – the subject of much current interest in neuroscience and related disciplines. Current formulations address inference and learning under some assumed and particular model. In reality, organisms are often faced with an additional challenge – that of determining which model or models of their environment are the best for guiding behaviour. Bayesian model averaging – which says that an agent should weight the predictions of different models according to their evidence – provides a principled way to solve this problem. Importantly, because model evidence is determined by both the accuracy and complexity of the model, optimal inference requires that these be traded off against one another. This means an agent’s behaviour should show an equivalent balance. We hypothesise that Bayesian model averaging plays an important role in cognition, given that it is both optimal and realisable within a plausible neuronal architecture. We outline model averaging and how it might be implemented, and then explore a number of implications for brain and behaviour. In particular, we propose that model averaging can explain a number of apparently suboptimal phenomena within the framework of approximate (bounded Bayesian inference, focussing particularly upon the relationship between goal-directed and habitual behaviour.

  15. Efficient Bayesian inference for ARFIMA processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, T.; Gramacy, R. B.; Franzke, C. L. E.; Watkins, N. W.

    2015-03-01

    Many geophysical quantities, like atmospheric temperature, water levels in rivers, and wind speeds, have shown evidence of long-range dependence (LRD). LRD means that these quantities experience non-trivial temporal memory, which potentially enhances their predictability, but also hampers the detection of externally forced trends. Thus, it is important to reliably identify whether or not a system exhibits LRD. In this paper we present a modern and systematic approach to the inference of LRD. Rather than Mandelbrot's fractional Gaussian noise, we use the more flexible Autoregressive Fractional Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model which is widely used in time series analysis, and of increasing interest in climate science. Unlike most previous work on the inference of LRD, which is frequentist in nature, we provide a systematic treatment of Bayesian inference. In particular, we provide a new approximate likelihood for efficient parameter inference, and show how nuisance parameters (e.g. short memory effects) can be integrated over in order to focus on long memory parameters, and hypothesis testing more directly. We illustrate our new methodology on the Nile water level data, with favorable comparison to the standard estimators.

  16. Campbell's and Rubin's Perspectives on Causal Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Stephen G.; Thoemmes, Felix

    2010-01-01

    Donald Campbell's approach to causal inference (D. T. Campbell, 1957; W. R. Shadish, T. D. Cook, & D. T. Campbell, 2002) is widely used in psychology and education, whereas Donald Rubin's causal model (P. W. Holland, 1986; D. B. Rubin, 1974, 2005) is widely used in economics, statistics, medicine, and public health. Campbell's approach focuses on…

  17. Bayesian structural inference for hidden processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strelioff, Christopher C.; Crutchfield, James P.

    2014-04-01

    We introduce a Bayesian approach to discovering patterns in structurally complex processes. The proposed method of Bayesian structural inference (BSI) relies on a set of candidate unifilar hidden Markov model (uHMM) topologies for inference of process structure from a data series. We employ a recently developed exact enumeration of topological ɛ-machines. (A sequel then removes the topological restriction.) This subset of the uHMM topologies has the added benefit that inferred models are guaranteed to be ɛ-machines, irrespective of estimated transition probabilities. Properties of ɛ-machines and uHMMs allow for the derivation of analytic expressions for estimating transition probabilities, inferring start states, and comparing the posterior probability of candidate model topologies, despite process internal structure being only indirectly present in data. We demonstrate BSI's effectiveness in estimating a process's randomness, as reflected by the Shannon entropy rate, and its structure, as quantified by the statistical complexity. We also compare using the posterior distribution over candidate models and the single, maximum a posteriori model for point estimation and show that the former more accurately reflects uncertainty in estimated values. We apply BSI to in-class examples of finite- and infinite-order Markov processes, as well to an out-of-class, infinite-state hidden process.

  18. HIERARCHICAL PROBABILISTIC INFERENCE OF COSMIC SHEAR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, Michael D.; Dawson, William A.; Hogg, David W.; Marshall, Philip J.; Bard, Deborah J.; Meyers, Joshua; Lang, Dustin

    2015-01-01

    Point estimators for the shearing of galaxy images induced by gravitational lensing involve a complex inverse problem in the presence of noise, pixelization, and model uncertainties. We present a probabilistic forward modeling approach to gravitational lensing inference that has the potential to mitigate the biased inferences in most common point estimators and is practical for upcoming lensing surveys. The first part of our statistical framework requires specification of a likelihood function for the pixel data in an imaging survey given parameterized models for the galaxies in the images. We derive the lensing shear posterior by marginalizing over all intrinsic galaxy properties that contribute to the pixel data (i.e., not limited to galaxy ellipticities) and learn the distributions for the intrinsic galaxy properties via hierarchical inference with a suitably flexible conditional probabilitiy distribution specification. We use importance sampling to separate the modeling of small imaging areas from the global shear inference, thereby rendering our algorithm computationally tractable for large surveys. With simple numerical examples we demonstrate the improvements in accuracy from our importance sampling approach, as well as the significance of the conditional distribution specification for the intrinsic galaxy properties when the data are generated from an unknown number of distinct galaxy populations with different morphological characteristics

  19. Interest, Inferences, and Learning from Texts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton, Virginia; van den Broek, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Topic interest and learning from texts have been found to be positively associated with each other. However, the reason for this positive association is not well understood. The purpose of this study is to examine a cognitive process, inference generation, that could explain the positive association between interest and learning from texts. In…

  20. Ignorability in Statistical and Probabilistic Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred

    2005-01-01

    When dealing with incomplete data in statistical learning, or incomplete observations in probabilistic inference, one needs to distinguish the fact that a certain event is observed from the fact that the observed event has happened. Since the modeling and computational complexities entailed...

  1. Inverse Ising inference with correlated samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obermayer, Benedikt; Levine, Erel

    2014-01-01

    Correlations between two variables of a high-dimensional system can be indicative of an underlying interaction, but can also result from indirect effects. Inverse Ising inference is a method to distinguish one from the other. Essentially, the parameters of the least constrained statistical model are learned from the observed correlations such that direct interactions can be separated from indirect correlations. Among many other applications, this approach has been helpful for protein structure prediction, because residues which interact in the 3D structure often show correlated substitutions in a multiple sequence alignment. In this context, samples used for inference are not independent but share an evolutionary history on a phylogenetic tree. Here, we discuss the effects of correlations between samples on global inference. Such correlations could arise due to phylogeny but also via other slow dynamical processes. We present a simple analytical model to address the resulting inference biases, and develop an exact method accounting for background correlations in alignment data by combining phylogenetic modeling with an adaptive cluster expansion algorithm. We find that popular reweighting schemes are only marginally effective at removing phylogenetic bias, suggest a rescaling strategy that yields better results, and provide evidence that our conclusions carry over to the frequently used mean-field approach to the inverse Ising problem. (paper)

  2. Evolutionary inference via the Poisson Indel Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchard-Côté, Alexandre; Jordan, Michael I

    2013-01-22

    We address the problem of the joint statistical inference of phylogenetic trees and multiple sequence alignments from unaligned molecular sequences. This problem is generally formulated in terms of string-valued evolutionary processes along the branches of a phylogenetic tree. The classic evolutionary process, the TKF91 model [Thorne JL, Kishino H, Felsenstein J (1991) J Mol Evol 33(2):114-124] is a continuous-time Markov chain model composed of insertion, deletion, and substitution events. Unfortunately, this model gives rise to an intractable computational problem: The computation of the marginal likelihood under the TKF91 model is exponential in the number of taxa. In this work, we present a stochastic process, the Poisson Indel Process (PIP), in which the complexity of this computation is reduced to linear. The Poisson Indel Process is closely related to the TKF91 model, differing only in its treatment of insertions, but it has a global characterization as a Poisson process on the phylogeny. Standard results for Poisson processes allow key computations to be decoupled, which yields the favorable computational profile of inference under the PIP model. We present illustrative experiments in which Bayesian inference under the PIP model is compared with separate inference of phylogenies and alignments.

  3. Culture and Pragmatic Inference in Interpersonal Communication

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    cognitive process, and that the human capacity for inference is crucially important ... been noted that research in interpersonal communication is currently pushing the ... communicative actions, the social-cultural world of everyday life is not only ... personal experiences of the authors', as documented over time and recreated ...

  4. Inference and the Introductory Statistics Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfannkuch, Maxine; Regan, Matt; Wild, Chris; Budgett, Stephanie; Forbes, Sharleen; Harraway, John; Parsonage, Ross

    2011-01-01

    This article sets out some of the rationale and arguments for making major changes to the teaching and learning of statistical inference in introductory courses at our universities by changing from a norm-based, mathematical approach to more conceptually accessible computer-based approaches. The core problem of the inferential argument with its…

  5. Statistical Inference on the Canadian Middle Class

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Russell Davidson

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Conventional wisdom says that the middle classes in many developed countries have recently suffered losses, in terms of both the share of the total population belonging to the middle class, and also their share in total income. Here, distribution-free methods are developed for inference on these shares, by means of deriving expressions for their asymptotic variances of sample estimates, and the covariance of the estimates. Asymptotic inference can be undertaken based on asymptotic normality. Bootstrap inference can be expected to be more reliable, and appropriate bootstrap procedures are proposed. As an illustration, samples of individual earnings drawn from Canadian census data are used to test various hypotheses about the middle-class shares, and confidence intervals for them are computed. It is found that, for the earlier censuses, sample sizes are large enough for asymptotic and bootstrap inference to be almost identical, but that, in the twenty-first century, the bootstrap fails on account of a strange phenomenon whereby many presumably different incomes in the data are rounded to one and the same value. Another difference between the centuries is the appearance of heavy right-hand tails in the income distributions of both men and women.

  6. Spurious correlations and inference in landscape genetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuel A. Cushman; Erin L. Landguth

    2010-01-01

    Reliable interpretation of landscape genetic analyses depends on statistical methods that have high power to identify the correct process driving gene flow while rejecting incorrect alternative hypotheses. Little is known about statistical power and inference in individual-based landscape genetics. Our objective was to evaluate the power of causalmodelling with partial...

  7. Cortical information flow during inferences of agency

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dogge, Myrthel; Hofman, Dennis; Boersma, Maria; Dijkerman, H Chris; Aarts, Henk

    2014-01-01

    Building on the recent finding that agency experiences do not merely rely on sensorimotor information but also on cognitive cues, this exploratory study uses electroencephalographic recordings to examine functional connectivity during agency inference processing in a setting where action and outcome

  8. Quasi-Experimental Designs for Causal Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yongnam; Steiner, Peter

    2016-01-01

    When randomized experiments are infeasible, quasi-experimental designs can be exploited to evaluate causal treatment effects. The strongest quasi-experimental designs for causal inference are regression discontinuity designs, instrumental variable designs, matching and propensity score designs, and comparative interrupted time series designs. This…

  9. The importance of learning when making inferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorg Rieskamp

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The assumption that people possess a repertoire of strategies to solve the inference problems they face has been made repeatedly. The experimental findings of two previous studies on strategy selection are reexamined from a learning perspective, which argues that people learn to select strategies for making probabilistic inferences. This learning process is modeled with the strategy selection learning (SSL theory, which assumes that people develop subjective expectancies for the strategies they have. They select strategies proportional to their expectancies, which are updated on the basis of experience. For the study by Newell, Weston, and Shanks (2003 it can be shown that people did not anticipate the success of a strategy from the beginning of the experiment. Instead, the behavior observed at the end of the experiment was the result of a learning process that can be described by the SSL theory. For the second study, by Br"oder and Schiffer (2006, the SSL theory is able to provide an explanation for why participants only slowly adapted to new environments in a dynamic inference situation. The reanalysis of the previous studies illustrates the importance of learning for probabilistic inferences.

  10. Colligation, Or the Logical Inference of Interconnection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Falster, Peter

    1998-01-01

    laws or assumptions. Yet interconnection as an abstract concept seems to be without scientific underpinning in pure logic. Adopting a historical viewpoint, our aim is to show that the reasoning of interconnection may be identified with a neglected kind of logical inference, called "colligation...

  11. Colligation or, The Logical Inference of Interconnection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Franksen, Ole Immanuel; Falster, Peter

    2000-01-01

    laws or assumptions. Yet interconnection as an abstract concept seems to be without scientific underpinning in oure logic. Adopting a historical viewpoint, our aim is to show that the reasoning of interconnection may be identified with a neglected kind of logical inference, called "colligation...

  12. Inferring motion and location using WLAN RSSI

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kavitha Muthukrishnan, K.; van der Zwaag, B.J.; Havinga, Paul J.M.; Fuller, R.; Koutsoukos, X.

    2009-01-01

    We present novel algorithms to infer movement by making use of inherent fluctuations in the received signal strengths from existing WLAN infrastructure. We evaluate the performance of the presented algorithms based on classification metrics such as recall and precision using annotated traces

  13. Active inference, sensory attenuation and illusions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Harriet; Adams, Rick A; Parees, Isabel; Edwards, Mark; Friston, Karl

    2013-11-01

    Active inference provides a simple and neurobiologically plausible account of how action and perception are coupled in producing (Bayes) optimal behaviour. This can be seen most easily as minimising prediction error: we can either change our predictions to explain sensory input through perception. Alternatively, we can actively change sensory input to fulfil our predictions. In active inference, this action is mediated by classical reflex arcs that minimise proprioceptive prediction error created by descending proprioceptive predictions. However, this creates a conflict between action and perception; in that, self-generated movements require predictions to override the sensory evidence that one is not actually moving. However, ignoring sensory evidence means that externally generated sensations will not be perceived. Conversely, attending to (proprioceptive and somatosensory) sensations enables the detection of externally generated events but precludes generation of actions. This conflict can be resolved by attenuating the precision of sensory evidence during movement or, equivalently, attending away from the consequences of self-made acts. We propose that this Bayes optimal withdrawal of precise sensory evidence during movement is the cause of psychophysical sensory attenuation. Furthermore, it explains the force-matching illusion and reproduces empirical results almost exactly. Finally, if attenuation is removed, the force-matching illusion disappears and false (delusional) inferences about agency emerge. This is important, given the negative correlation between sensory attenuation and delusional beliefs in normal subjects--and the reduction in the magnitude of the illusion in schizophrenia. Active inference therefore links the neuromodulatory optimisation of precision to sensory attenuation and illusory phenomena during the attribution of agency in normal subjects. It also provides a functional account of deficits in syndromes characterised by false inference

  14. Island in an island – The suggestions for transportation improvement plan for Haidian Island, Haikou, Hainan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sia Rosalind Juo Ling

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Haidian Island, which situated at the Northern part of Haikou City of Hainan Province, is an island within a city. Haidian Island is unique in term of it's development which centered around an university, the Hainan University, besides some others important landmarks, such as Haikou city hospital, Baishamen municipal park, Golf Driving Range etc. All commercials, residential, recreational activities etc are planned to serve Hainan University in particular. The study, taking ‘Haidian Island Area Development Control Plan’ as case study, would like to look into the importance of transportation and traffic planning. The study used observation, site investigation and traffic study methods to gather data needed. Firstly the study analyzed the current state of transportation system for Haidian Island in accordance to the Island Development Control plan and Haikou master plan and identified the problems. Then, the study made some recommendations for these problems. The study highlighted the important of non-motorized, cycling and walking as the main transportation system for an education-based island and as supportive to domestic tourism activities found. The transportation planning suggested by the study took ‘green and low-carbon’ approaches considered the role of University as the core activity in the island.

  15. Energy Self-Sufficient Island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bratic, S.; Krajacic, G.; Duic, N.; Cotar, A.; Jardas, D.

    2011-01-01

    In order to analyze energy self-sufficient island, example of a smaller island, connected to the power system of a bigger island with an undersea cable, was taken. Mounting substation 10/0,4 is situated on the island and for the moment it provides enough electricity using the medium voltage line. It is assumed that the island is situated on the north part of the Adriatic Sea. The most important problem that occurs on the island is the population drop that occurs for a significant number of years, therefore, life standard needs to be improved, and economic development needs to be encouraged immediately. Local authorities to stimulate sustainable development on the island through different projects, to breath in a new life to the island, open new jobs and attract new people to come live there. Because of the planned development and increase of the population, energy projects, planned as a support to sustainable development, and later achievement of the energy self-sufficiency, is described in this paper. Therefore, Rewisland methodology appliance is described taking into the account three possible scenarios of energy development. Each scenario is calculated until year 2030. Also, what is taken into the account is 100% usage of renewable sources of energy in 2030. Scenario PTV, PP, EE - This scenario includes installation of solar photovoltaic modules and solar thermal collectors on the buildings roofs, as well as well as implementation of energy efficiency on the island (replacement of the street light bulbs with LED lightning, replacement of the old windows and doors on the houses, as well as the installation of the thermal insulation). Scenario PV island - This scenario, similarly to the previous one, includes installation of solar photovoltaic modules and solar thermal collectors an the residential buildings, as well as the 2 MW photovoltaic power plant and ''Green Hotel'', a building that satisfies all of its energy needs completely from renewable energy sources

  16. Three Mile Island accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barre, B.; Olivier, E.; Roux, J.P.; Pelle, P.

    2010-01-01

    Deluded by equivocal instrumentation signals, operators at TMI-2 (Three Mile Island - unit 2) misunderstood what was going on in the reactor and for 2 hours were taking inadequate decisions that turned a reactor incident into a major nuclear event that led to the melting of about one third of the core. The TMI accident had worldwide impacts in the domain of nuclear safety. The main consequences in France were: 1) the introduction of the major accident approach and the reinforcement of crisis management; 2) the improvement of the reactor design, particularly that of the pressurizer valves; 3) the implementation of safety probabilistic studies; 4) a better taking into account of the feedback experience in reactor operations; and 5) a better taking into account of the humane factor in reactor safety. (A.C.)

  17. Three Mile Island update

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Snyder, B.J.

    1984-01-01

    Almost six years after the accident at Three Mile Island-2, cleanup operations are proceeding and the financial condition of the owners has improved. The author reviews some of the cleanup activities and notes the milestones ahead before reaching the September, 1988 target date for completion. A decision to decommission or refurbish will follow the completion of fuel removal activities in 1987. The cleanup has produced considerable data and useful information. In particular, the experience of large-scale decontamination and radioactive waste processing, along with information on fission product transport, is relevant for maintenance and safe operation of other plants. Both macro- and microscopic examination of the core could help in developing safer reactors in the future. 3 figures, 1 table

  18. PWR: nuclear islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    Framatome and its partners have produced this glossary of technical terms that can be used in writing English language documents relating to power plants (nuclear islands, individual components, nuclear services, etc.) with the hope of improving the quality of the documents intended for their clients, suppliers and partners and for others. This glossary will be particularly useful to the translators and authors of technical proposals, design documents, manufacturing documents, construction and operating documents concerning Pressurized Water Reactors written in English or French. It can also be useful as a reference document for students, researchers, journalists, etc., having to write on this subject. We would like to thank all those individuals working at the Ministere de la Recherche et de la Technologie, Electricite de France, Jeumont Schneider and Framatome who have contributed to this glossary. We would also appreciate any comments or sugestions intended to improve subsequent editions of this glossary [fr

  19. Mauritius - a Sustainable Island

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Anders

    2010-01-01

    production is determined to be the way forward. A step in this direction is to devolve upon citizens the ability and motivation to produce electricity via small-scale distributed generation (SSDG), i.e. wind, photovoltaic and hydro installations below 50 kW. Given that SSDG is more expensive per installed......The Government of Mauritius has a long-term vision of transforming Mauritius into a sustainable Island. One important element towards the achievement of this vision is to increase the country's renewable energy usage and thereby reducing dependence on fossil fuels. Democratisation of energy...... capacity than the existing much larger power plants, subsidies are needed so as to provide incentives to small independent power producers (SIPP), households and firms to invest in SSDG.The paper presents the context, the theoretical considerations and the proposed incentive schemes to enable electricity...

  20. SRTM Anaglyph: Fiji Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    The Sovereign Democratic Republic of the Fiji Islands, commonly known as Fiji, is an independent nation consisting of some 332 islands surrounding the Koro Sea in the South Pacific Ocean. This topographic image shows Viti Levu, the largest island in the group. With an area of 10,429 square kilometers (about 4000 square miles), it comprises more than half the area of the Fiji Islands. Suva, the capital city, lies on the southeast shore. The Nakauvadra, the rugged mountain range running from north to south, has several peaks rising above 900 meters (about 3000 feet). Mount Tomanivi, in the upper center, is the highest peak at 1324 meters (4341 feet). The distinct circular feature on the north shore is the Tavua Caldera, the remnant of a large shield volcano that was active about 4 million years ago. Gold has been mined on the margin of the caldera since the 1930s. The Nadrau plateau is the low relief highland in the center of the mountain range. The coastal plains in the west, northwest and southeast account for only 15 percent of Viti Levu's area but are the main centers of agriculture and settlement.This shaded relief anaglyph image was generated using preliminary topographic data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. A computer-generated artificial light source illuminates the elevation data from the top (north) to produce a pattern of light and shadows. Slopes facing the light appear bright, while those facing away are shaded. The stereoscopic effect was created by first draping the shaded relief image back over the topographic data and then generating two differing perspectives, one for each eye. When viewed through special glasses, the result is a vertically exaggerated view of the Earth's surface in its full three dimensions. Anaglyph glasses cover the left eye with a red filter and cover the right eye with a blue filter.This image was acquired by SRTM aboard the Space Shuttle Endeavour, launched on February 11, 2000. SRTM used the same radar instrument

  1. Indexing the Environmental Quality Performance Based on A Fuzzy Inference Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iswari, Lizda

    2018-03-01

    Environmental performance strongly deals with the quality of human life. In Indonesia, this performance is quantified through Environmental Quality Index (EQI) which consists of three indicators, i.e. river quality index, air quality index, and coverage of land cover. The current of this instrument data processing was done by averaging and weighting each index to represent the EQI at the provincial level. However, we found EQI interpretations that may contain some uncertainties and have a range of circumstances possibly less appropriate if processed under a common statistical approach. In this research, we aim to manage the indicators of EQI with a more intuitive computation technique and make some inferences related to the environmental performance in 33 provinces in Indonesia. Research was conducted in three stages of Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System (MAFIS), i.e. fuzzification, data inference, and defuzzification. Data input consists of 10 environmental parameters and the output is an index of Environmental Quality Performance (EQP). Research was applied to the environmental condition data set in 2015 and quantified the results into the scale of 0 to 100, i.e. 10 provinces at good performance with the EQP above 80 dominated by provinces in eastern part of Indonesia, 22 provinces with the EQP between 80 to 50, and one province in Java Island with the EQP below 20. This research shows that environmental quality performance can be quantified without eliminating the natures of the data set and simultaneously is able to show the environment behavior along with its spatial pattern distribution.

  2. Island biogeography of marine organisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinheiro, Hudson T.; Bernardi, Giacomo; Simon, Thiony; Joyeux, Jean-Christophe; Macieira, Raphael M.; Gasparini, João Luiz; Rocha, Claudia; Rocha, Luiz A.

    2017-09-01

    Studies on the distribution and evolution of organisms on oceanic islands have advanced towards a dynamic perspective, where terrestrial endemicity results from island geographical aspects and geological history intertwined with sea-level fluctuations. Diversification on these islands may follow neutral models, decreasing over time as niches are filled, or disequilibrium states and progression rules, where richness and endemism rise with the age of the archipelago owing to the splitting of ancestral lineages (cladogenesis). However, marine organisms have received comparatively little scientific attention. Therefore, island and seamount evolutionary processes in the aquatic environment remain unclear. Here we analyse the evolutionary history of reef fishes that are endemic to a volcanic ridge of seamounts and islands to understand their relations to island evolution and sea-level fluctuations. We also test how this evolutionary history fits island biogeography theory. We found that most endemic species have evolved recently (Pleistocene epoch), during a period of recurrent sea-level changes and intermittent connectivity caused by repeated aerial exposure of seamounts, a finding that is consistent with an ephemeral ecological speciation process. Similar to findings for terrestrial biodiversity, our data suggest that the marine speciation rate on islands is negatively correlated with immigration rate. However, because marine species disperse better than terrestrial species, most niches are filled by immigration: speciation increases with the random accumulation of species with low dispersal ability, with few opportunities for in situ cladogenesis and adaptive radiation. Moreover, we confirm that sea-level fluctuations and seamount location play a critical role in marine evolution, mainly by intermittently providing stepping stones for island colonization.

  3. Bamboo Diversity in Sumba Island

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KARSONO

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Bamboo is one of the economic plant which grow widely in the villages and have been used by the local people in the villages. Indonesia has about 10% of the world bamboo, 50% among them was endemic to Indonesia. According Widjaja (2001 Lesser Sunda Island which consists of Lombok, Sumbawa, Flores, Timor, Sumba and other small island eastern of Flores has 14 bamboo species, however, the information from the Sumba Island was lacking because of lacking data from this area except one species which was proposed by S. Soenarko in 1977 where the type specimens was collected by Iboet 443 in 1925. To fullfill data from the Sumba Island, an exploration to this area has been conducted on July 2003. The observation was done in West Sumba and East Sumba District, especially in two natioal parks at both districts. According to this inventory study in the Sumba Island, there were 10 bamboo species in Sumba Island, 1 species among them (Dinochloa sp. was a new species which has not been collected before, whereas the other species (Dinochloa kostermansiana has a new addition record from this area. The bamboo species in Sumba Island were Bambusa blumeana, Bambusa vulgaris, Dendocalamus asper, Dinochloa kostermansiana, Dinochloa sp., Gigantochloa atter, Nastus reholtumianus, Phyllostachys aurea, Schisotachyum brachycladum and Schizostachyum lima. From 10 recorded species, the genera Dinochloa and Nastus grow wild in the forest, whereas another species grow widly or cultivated in the garden. Furthermore, the genus Dinochloa was the only genus grow climbing. The endemic species found in Sumba Island was Nastus reholttumianus, whereas Dinochloa kostermansiana was also found in Flores Island.

  4. Reliving Island Life: Staging Stories of the Blasket Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daithí Kearney

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The Blasket Islands are located off the south-west coast of Ireland. No longer inhabited, the Great Blasket Island and its distinctive culture have been documented by a variety of writers and are celebrated today in an interpretative centre on the mainland and in performances by Siamsa Tíre, The National Folk Theatre of Ireland. “Siamsa” developed from local initiatives in North Kerry during the early 1960s and is located today in Tralee, Co. Kerry. It aims to present Irish folklore and folk culture through the medium of theatre involving music, song, dance and mime but invariably no dialogue. In this paper, I focus on the production Oiléan, based loosely on the stories of the Blasket Islanders, which was initially devised as part of the fiftieth anniversary commemoration of the departure of the last inhabitants of the islands in 2003.

  5. Seismic and gravity signature of the Ischia Island Caldera (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capuano, P.; de Matteis, R.; Russo, G.

    2009-04-01

    The Campania (Italy) coasts are characterized by the presence of several volcanoes. The island of Ischia, located at the northwestern end of the Gulf of Naples, belongs to the Neapolitan Volcanic District together with Phlegrean Fields and Vesuvius, having all these Pleistocene volcanoes erupted in historical times, and it is characterized by diffuse hydrothermal phenomena The island represents the emergent part of a more extensive volcanic area developed mainly westward of the island, with underwater volcanoes aligned along regional fault patterns. The activity of Ischia volcano is testified by the occurrence of eruptions in historical times, the presence of intense hydrothermal phenomena, and by seismic activity (e.g. the 1883 Casamicciola earthquake). Ischia is populated by about 50,000 inhabitants increasing, mainly in the summer, due to thriving tourism business, partially due to its active volcanic state. Hazard assessment at active, densely populated volcanoes is critically based on knowledge of the volcanoes past behavior and the definition of its present state. As a contribution to the definition of the present state of the Ischia island volcano, we obtain a model of the shallow crust using geophysical observables through seismic tomography and 3D gravity inversion. In particular we use travel times collected during the Serapis experiment on the island and its surroundings and free air anomaly. A new 3D gravity inversion procedure has been developed to take better into account the shape and the effects of topography approximating it by a triangular mesh. Below each triangle, a sequence of triangular prisms is built, the uppermost prism having the upper face coincident with the triangle following the topography. The inversion is performed searching for a regularized solution using the minimum norm stabilizer. The main results inferable from the 3D seismic and gravity images are the definition of the caldera rims hypothesize by many authors along the

  6. Recombination rate variation in mice from an isolated island.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Richard J; Gray, Melissa M; Parmenter, Michelle D; Broman, Karl W; Payseur, Bret A

    2017-01-01

    Recombination rate is a heritable trait that varies among individuals. Despite the major impact of recombination rate on patterns of genetic diversity and the efficacy of selection, natural variation in this phenotype remains poorly characterized. We present a comparison of genetic maps, sampling 1212 meioses, from a unique population of wild house mice (Mus musculus domesticus) that recently colonized remote Gough Island. Crosses to a mainland reference strain (WSB/EiJ) reveal pervasive variation in recombination rate among Gough Island mice, including subchromosomal intervals spanning up to 28% of the genome. In spite of this high level of polymorphism, the genomewide recombination rate does not significantly vary. In general, we find that recombination rate varies more when measured in smaller genomic intervals. Using the current standard genetic map of the laboratory mouse to polarize intervals with divergent recombination rates, we infer that the majority of evolutionary change occurred in one of the two tested lines of Gough Island mice. Our results confirm that natural populations harbour a high level of recombination rate polymorphism and highlight the disparities in recombination rate evolution across genomic scales. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Approaching the Island of Inversion: 34P

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bender, P.C.; Hoffman, C.R.; Wiedeking, M.; Allmond, J.M.; Bernstein, L.A.; Burke, J.T.; Bleuel, D.L.; Clark, R.M.; Fallon, P.; Goldblum, B.L.; Hinners, T.A.; Jeppesen, H.B.; Lee, Sangjin; Lee, I.Y.; Lesher, S.R.; Machiavelli, A.O.; McMahan, M.A.; Morris, D.; Perry, M.; Phair, L.; Scielzo, N.D.; Tabor, S.L.; Tripathi, Vandana; Volya, A.

    2011-06-14

    Yrast states in 34P were investigated using the 18O(18O,pn) reaction at energies of 20, 24, 25, 30, and 44 MeV at Florida State University and at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. The level scheme was expanded, ray angular distributions were measured, and lifetimes were inferred with the Doppler-shift attenuation method by detecting decay protons in coincidence with one or more rays. The results provide a clearer picture of the evolution of structure approaching the 'Island of Inversion', particularly how the 1 and 2 particle-hole (ph) states fall in energy with increasing neutro number approaching inversion. However, the agreement of the lowest few states with pure sd shell model predictions shows that the level scheme of 34P is not itself inverted. Rather, the accumulated evidence indicates that the 1-ph states start at 2.3 MeV. A good candidate for the lowest 2-ph state lies at 6236 keV, just below the neutron separation energy of 6291 keV. Shell model calculations made using a small modification of the WBP interaction reproduce the negative-parity, 1-ph states rather well.

  8. Equilibrium theory of island biogeography: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angela D. Yu; Simon A. Lei

    2001-01-01

    The topography, climatic pattern, location, and origin of islands generate unique patterns of species distribution. The equilibrium theory of island biogeography creates a general framework in which the study of taxon distribution and broad island trends may be conducted. Critical components of the equilibrium theory include the species-area relationship, island-...

  9. Oak restoration trials: Santa Catalina Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lisa Stratton

    2002-01-01

    Two restoration trials involving four oak species have been implemented as part of a larger restoration program for Catalina Island. In 1997 the Catalina Island Conservancy began an active program of restoration after 50 years of ranching and farming activities on the island. The restoration program includes removing feral goats and pigs island-wide and converting 80...

  10. Likelihood inference for unions of interacting discs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Helisová, Katarina

    To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper which discusses likelihood inference or a random set using a germ-grain model, where the individual grains are unobservable edge effects occur, and other complications appear. We consider the case where the grains form a disc process modelled...... is specified with respect to a given marked Poisson model (i.e. a Boolean model). We show how edge effects and other complications can be handled by considering a certain conditional likelihood. Our methodology is illustrated by analyzing Peter Diggle's heather dataset, where we discuss the results...... of simulation-based maximum likelihood inference and the effect of specifying different reference Poisson models....

  11. An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reddy, Vikas; Farr, Anna Charisse; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K D V

    2014-01-01

    Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++

  12. The NIFTY way of Bayesian signal inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selig, Marco

    2014-01-01

    We introduce NIFTY, 'Numerical Information Field Theory', a software package for the development of Bayesian signal inference algorithms that operate independently from any underlying spatial grid and its resolution. A large number of Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods for 1D signal reconstruction, 2D imaging, as well as 3D tomography, appear formally similar, but one often finds individualized implementations that are neither flexible nor easily transferable. Signal inference in the framework of NIFTY can be done in an abstract way, such that algorithms, prototyped in 1D, can be applied to real world problems in higher-dimensional settings. NIFTY as a versatile library is applicable and already has been applied in 1D, 2D, 3D and spherical settings. A recent application is the D 3 PO algorithm targeting the non-trivial task of denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations in high energy astronomy

  13. The NIFTy way of Bayesian signal inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selig, Marco

    2014-12-01

    We introduce NIFTy, "Numerical Information Field Theory", a software package for the development of Bayesian signal inference algorithms that operate independently from any underlying spatial grid and its resolution. A large number of Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods for 1D signal reconstruction, 2D imaging, as well as 3D tomography, appear formally similar, but one often finds individualized implementations that are neither flexible nor easily transferable. Signal inference in the framework of NIFTy can be done in an abstract way, such that algorithms, prototyped in 1D, can be applied to real world problems in higher-dimensional settings. NIFTy as a versatile library is applicable and already has been applied in 1D, 2D, 3D and spherical settings. A recent application is the D3PO algorithm targeting the non-trivial task of denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations in high energy astronomy.

  14. Bayesianism and inference to the best explanation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeriano IRANZO

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Bayesianism and Inference to the best explanation (IBE are two different models of inference. Recently there has been some debate about the possibility of “bayesianizing” IBE. Firstly I explore several alternatives to include explanatory considerations in Bayes’s Theorem. Then I distinguish two different interpretations of prior probabilities: “IBE-Bayesianism” (IBE-Bay and “frequentist-Bayesianism” (Freq-Bay. After detailing the content of the latter, I propose a rule for assessing the priors. I also argue that Freq-Bay: (i endorses a role for explanatory value in the assessment of scientific hypotheses; (ii avoids a purely subjectivist reading of prior probabilities; and (iii fits better than IBE-Bayesianism with two basic facts about science, i.e., the prominent role played by empirical testing and the existence of many scientific theories in the past that failed to fulfil their promises and were subsequently abandoned.

  15. Dopamine, reward learning, and active inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas eFitzgerald

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Temporal difference learning models propose phasic dopamine signalling encodes reward prediction errors that drive learning. This is supported by studies where optogenetic stimulation of dopamine neurons can stand in lieu of actual reward. Nevertheless, a large body of data also shows that dopamine is not necessary for learning, and that dopamine depletion primarily affects task performance. We offer a resolution to this paradox based on an hypothesis that dopamine encodes the precision of beliefs about alternative actions, and thus controls the outcome-sensitivity of behaviour. We extend an active inference scheme for solving Markov decision processes to include learning, and show that simulated dopamine dynamics strongly resemble those actually observed during instrumental conditioning. Furthermore, simulated dopamine depletion impairs performance but spares learning, while simulated excitation of dopamine neurons drives reward learning, through aberrant inference about outcome states. Our formal approach provides a novel and parsimonious reconciliation of apparently divergent experimental findings.

  16. Dopamine, reward learning, and active inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    FitzGerald, Thomas H B; Dolan, Raymond J; Friston, Karl

    2015-01-01

    Temporal difference learning models propose phasic dopamine signaling encodes reward prediction errors that drive learning. This is supported by studies where optogenetic stimulation of dopamine neurons can stand in lieu of actual reward. Nevertheless, a large body of data also shows that dopamine is not necessary for learning, and that dopamine depletion primarily affects task performance. We offer a resolution to this paradox based on an hypothesis that dopamine encodes the precision of beliefs about alternative actions, and thus controls the outcome-sensitivity of behavior. We extend an active inference scheme for solving Markov decision processes to include learning, and show that simulated dopamine dynamics strongly resemble those actually observed during instrumental conditioning. Furthermore, simulated dopamine depletion impairs performance but spares learning, while simulated excitation of dopamine neurons drives reward learning, through aberrant inference about outcome states. Our formal approach provides a novel and parsimonious reconciliation of apparently divergent experimental findings.

  17. Inferring genetic interactions from comparative fitness data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crona, Kristina; Gavryushkin, Alex; Greene, Devin; Beerenwinkel, Niko

    2017-12-20

    Darwinian fitness is a central concept in evolutionary biology. In practice, however, it is hardly possible to measure fitness for all genotypes in a natural population. Here, we present quantitative tools to make inferences about epistatic gene interactions when the fitness landscape is only incompletely determined due to imprecise measurements or missing observations. We demonstrate that genetic interactions can often be inferred from fitness rank orders, where all genotypes are ordered according to fitness, and even from partial fitness orders. We provide a complete characterization of rank orders that imply higher order epistasis. Our theory applies to all common types of gene interactions and facilitates comprehensive investigations of diverse genetic interactions. We analyzed various genetic systems comprising HIV-1, the malaria-causing parasite Plasmodium vivax , the fungus Aspergillus niger , and the TEM-family of β-lactamase associated with antibiotic resistance. For all systems, our approach revealed higher order interactions among mutations.

  18. An emergent approach to analogical inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thibodeau, Paul H.; Flusberg, Stephen J.; Glick, Jeremy J.; Sternberg, Daniel A.

    2013-03-01

    In recent years, a growing number of researchers have proposed that analogy is a core component of human cognition. According to the dominant theoretical viewpoint, analogical reasoning requires a specific suite of cognitive machinery, including explicitly coded symbolic representations and a mapping or binding mechanism that operates over these representations. Here we offer an alternative approach: we find that analogical inference can emerge naturally and spontaneously from a relatively simple, error-driven learning mechanism without the need to posit any additional analogy-specific machinery. The results also parallel findings from the developmental literature on analogy, demonstrating a shift from an initial reliance on surface feature similarity to the use of relational similarity later in training. Variants of the model allow us to consider and rule out alternative accounts of its performance. We conclude by discussing how these findings can potentially refine our understanding of the processes that are required to perform analogical inference.

  19. Pointwise probability reinforcements for robust statistical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frénay, Benoît; Verleysen, Michel

    2014-02-01

    Statistical inference using machine learning techniques may be difficult with small datasets because of abnormally frequent data (AFDs). AFDs are observations that are much more frequent in the training sample that they should be, with respect to their theoretical probability, and include e.g. outliers. Estimates of parameters tend to be biased towards models which support such data. This paper proposes to introduce pointwise probability reinforcements (PPRs): the probability of each observation is reinforced by a PPR and a regularisation allows controlling the amount of reinforcement which compensates for AFDs. The proposed solution is very generic, since it can be used to robustify any statistical inference method which can be formulated as a likelihood maximisation. Experiments show that PPRs can be easily used to tackle regression, classification and projection: models are freed from the influence of outliers. Moreover, outliers can be filtered manually since an abnormality degree is obtained for each observation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Statistical inference from imperfect photon detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Audenaert, Koenraad M R; Scheel, Stefan

    2009-01-01

    We consider the statistical properties of photon detection with imperfect detectors that exhibit dark counts and less than unit efficiency, in the context of tomographic reconstruction. In this context, the detectors are used to implement certain positive operator-valued measures (POVMs) that would allow us to reconstruct the quantum state or quantum process under consideration. Here we look at the intermediate step of inferring outcome probabilities from measured outcome frequencies, and show how this inference can be performed in a statistically sound way in the presence of detector imperfections. Merging outcome probabilities for different sets of POVMs into a consistent quantum state picture has been treated elsewhere (Audenaert and Scheel 2009 New J. Phys. 11 023028). Single-photon pulsed measurements as well as continuous wave measurements are covered.

  1. An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Vikas; Charisse Farr, Anna; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K. D. V.

    2014-03-01

    Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.

  2. Working with sample data exploration and inference

    CERN Document Server

    Chaffe-Stengel, Priscilla

    2014-01-01

    Managers and analysts routinely collect and examine key performance measures to better understand their operations and make good decisions. Being able to render the complexity of operations data into a coherent account of significant events requires an understanding of how to work well with raw data and to make appropriate inferences. Although some statistical techniques for analyzing data and making inferences are sophisticated and require specialized expertise, there are methods that are understandable and applicable by anyone with basic algebra skills and the support of a spreadsheet package. By applying these fundamental methods themselves rather than turning over both the data and the responsibility for analysis and interpretation to an expert, managers will develop a richer understanding and potentially gain better control over their environment. This text is intended to describe these fundamental statistical techniques to managers, data analysts, and students. Statistical analysis of sample data is enh...

  3. Parametric inference for biological sequence analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pachter, Lior; Sturmfels, Bernd

    2004-11-16

    One of the major successes in computational biology has been the unification, by using the graphical model formalism, of a multitude of algorithms for annotating and comparing biological sequences. Graphical models that have been applied to these problems include hidden Markov models for annotation, tree models for phylogenetics, and pair hidden Markov models for alignment. A single algorithm, the sum-product algorithm, solves many of the inference problems that are associated with different statistical models. This article introduces the polytope propagation algorithm for computing the Newton polytope of an observation from a graphical model. This algorithm is a geometric version of the sum-product algorithm and is used to analyze the parametric behavior of maximum a posteriori inference calculations for graphical models.

  4. Inferences on Children’s Reading Groups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier González García

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available This article focuses on the non-literal information of a text, which can be inferred from key elements or clues offered by the text itself. This kind of text is called implicit text or inference, due to the thinking process that it stimulates. The explicit resources that lead to information retrieval are related to others of implicit information, which have increased their relevance. In this study, during two courses, how two teachers interpret three stories and how they establish a debate dividing the class into three student groups, was analyzed. The sample was formed by two classes of two urban public schools of Burgos capital (Spain, and two of public schools of Tampico (Mexico. This allowed us to observe an increasing percentage value of the group focused in text comprehension, and a lesser percentage of the group perceiving comprehension as a secondary objective.

  5. Inferring Genetic Ancestry: Opportunities, Challenges, and Implications

    OpenAIRE

    Royal, Charmaine D.; Novembre, John; Fullerton, Stephanie M.; Goldstein, David B.; Long, Jeffrey C.; Bamshad, Michael J.; Clark, Andrew G.

    2010-01-01

    Increasing public interest in direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic ancestry testing has been accompanied by growing concern about issues ranging from the personal and societal implications of the testing to the scientific validity of ancestry inference. The very concept of “ancestry” is subject to misunderstanding in both the general and scientific communities. What do we mean by ancestry? How exactly is ancestry measured? How far back can such ancestry be defined and by which genetic tools? How ...

  6. Spatial Inference Based on Geometric Proportional Analogies

    OpenAIRE

    Mullally, Emma-Claire; O'Donoghue, Diarmuid P.

    2006-01-01

    We describe an instance-based reasoning solution to a variety of spatial reasoning problems. The solution centers on identifying an isomorphic mapping between labelled graphs that represent some problem data and a known solution instance. We describe a number of spatial reasoning problems that are solved by generating non-deductive inferences, integrating topology with area (and other) features. We report the accuracy of our algorithm on different categories of spatial reasoning tasks from th...

  7. Inferring ontology graph structures using OWL reasoning

    KAUST Repository

    Rodriguez-Garcia, Miguel Angel

    2018-01-05

    Ontologies are representations of a conceptualization of a domain. Traditionally, ontologies in biology were represented as directed acyclic graphs (DAG) which represent the backbone taxonomy and additional relations between classes. These graphs are widely exploited for data analysis in the form of ontology enrichment or computation of semantic similarity. More recently, ontologies are developed in a formal language such as the Web Ontology Language (OWL) and consist of a set of axioms through which classes are defined or constrained. While the taxonomy of an ontology can be inferred directly from the axioms of an ontology as one of the standard OWL reasoning tasks, creating general graph structures from OWL ontologies that exploit the ontologies\\' semantic content remains a challenge.We developed a method to transform ontologies into graphs using an automated reasoner while taking into account all relations between classes. Searching for (existential) patterns in the deductive closure of ontologies, we can identify relations between classes that are implied but not asserted and generate graph structures that encode for a large part of the ontologies\\' semantic content. We demonstrate the advantages of our method by applying it to inference of protein-protein interactions through semantic similarity over the Gene Ontology and demonstrate that performance is increased when graph structures are inferred using deductive inference according to our method. Our software and experiment results are available at http://github.com/bio-ontology-research-group/Onto2Graph .Onto2Graph is a method to generate graph structures from OWL ontologies using automated reasoning. The resulting graphs can be used for improved ontology visualization and ontology-based data analysis.

  8. Role of Speaker Cues in Attention Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Jin Joo Lee; Cynthia Breazeal; David DeSteno

    2017-01-01

    Current state-of-the-art approaches to emotion recognition primarily focus on modeling the nonverbal expressions of the sole individual without reference to contextual elements such as the co-presence of the partner. In this paper, we demonstrate that the accurate inference of listeners’ social-emotional state of attention depends on accounting for the nonverbal behaviors of their storytelling partner, namely their speaker cues. To gain a deeper understanding of the role of speaker cues in at...

  9. Inferring ontology graph structures using OWL reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-García, Miguel Ángel; Hoehndorf, Robert

    2018-01-05

    Ontologies are representations of a conceptualization of a domain. Traditionally, ontologies in biology were represented as directed acyclic graphs (DAG) which represent the backbone taxonomy and additional relations between classes. These graphs are widely exploited for data analysis in the form of ontology enrichment or computation of semantic similarity. More recently, ontologies are developed in a formal language such as the Web Ontology Language (OWL) and consist of a set of axioms through which classes are defined or constrained. While the taxonomy of an ontology can be inferred directly from the axioms of an ontology as one of the standard OWL reasoning tasks, creating general graph structures from OWL ontologies that exploit the ontologies' semantic content remains a challenge. We developed a method to transform ontologies into graphs using an automated reasoner while taking into account all relations between classes. Searching for (existential) patterns in the deductive closure of ontologies, we can identify relations between classes that are implied but not asserted and generate graph structures that encode for a large part of the ontologies' semantic content. We demonstrate the advantages of our method by applying it to inference of protein-protein interactions through semantic similarity over the Gene Ontology and demonstrate that performance is increased when graph structures are inferred using deductive inference according to our method. Our software and experiment results are available at http://github.com/bio-ontology-research-group/Onto2Graph . Onto2Graph is a method to generate graph structures from OWL ontologies using automated reasoning. The resulting graphs can be used for improved ontology visualization and ontology-based data analysis.

  10. Constrained bayesian inference of project performance models

    OpenAIRE

    Sunmola, Funlade

    2013-01-01

    Project performance models play an important role in the management of project success. When used for monitoring projects, they can offer predictive ability such as indications of possible delivery problems. Approaches for monitoring project performance relies on available project information including restrictions imposed on the project, particularly the constraints of cost, quality, scope and time. We study in this paper a Bayesian inference methodology for project performance modelling in ...

  11. Using metacognitive cues to infer others' thinking

    OpenAIRE

    André Mata; Tiago Almeida

    2014-01-01

    Three studies tested whether people use cues about the way other people think---for example, whether others respond fast vs. slow---to infer what responses other people might give to reasoning problems. People who solve reasoning problems using deliberative thinking have better insight than intuitive problem-solvers into the responses that other people might give to the same problems. Presumably because deliberative responders think of intuitive responses before they think o...

  12. Thermodynamics of statistical inference by cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Alex H; Fisher, Charles K; Mora, Thierry; Mehta, Pankaj

    2014-10-03

    The deep connection between thermodynamics, computation, and information is now well established both theoretically and experimentally. Here, we extend these ideas to show that thermodynamics also places fundamental constraints on statistical estimation and learning. To do so, we investigate the constraints placed by (nonequilibrium) thermodynamics on the ability of biochemical signaling networks to estimate the concentration of an external signal. We show that accuracy is limited by energy consumption, suggesting that there are fundamental thermodynamic constraints on statistical inference.

  13. Analysis of Island Formation Due to RMPs in D3D Plasmas Using SIESTA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirshman, Steven; Shafer, Morgan; Seal, Sudip; Canik, John

    2015-11-01

    By varying the initial helical perturbation amplitude of Resonant Magnetic Perturbations (RMPs) applied to a Doublet III-D (DIII-D) plasma, a variety of meta-stable equilibrium are scanned using the SIESTA MHD equilibrium code. It is found that increasing the perturbation strength at the dominant m =2 resonant surface leads to lower MHD energies and significant increases in the equilibrium island widths at the m =2 (and sidebands) surfaces. Island overlap eventually leads to stochastic magnetic fields which correlate well with the experimentally inferred field line structure. The magnitude and spatial phase (around associated rational surfaces) of resonant (shielding) components of the parallel current is shown to be correlated with the magnetic island topology. Work supported by U.S. DOE under Contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with UT-Battelle, LLC.

  14. Bootstrap inference when using multiple imputation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schomaker, Michael; Heumann, Christian

    2018-04-16

    Many modern estimators require bootstrapping to calculate confidence intervals because either no analytic standard error is available or the distribution of the parameter of interest is nonsymmetric. It remains however unclear how to obtain valid bootstrap inference when dealing with multiple imputation to address missing data. We present 4 methods that are intuitively appealing, easy to implement, and combine bootstrap estimation with multiple imputation. We show that 3 of the 4 approaches yield valid inference, but that the performance of the methods varies with respect to the number of imputed data sets and the extent of missingness. Simulation studies reveal the behavior of our approaches in finite samples. A topical analysis from HIV treatment research, which determines the optimal timing of antiretroviral treatment initiation in young children, demonstrates the practical implications of the 4 methods in a sophisticated and realistic setting. This analysis suffers from missing data and uses the g-formula for inference, a method for which no standard errors are available. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Wan

    Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases.

  16. Role of Speaker Cues in Attention Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Joo Lee

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Current state-of-the-art approaches to emotion recognition primarily focus on modeling the nonverbal expressions of the sole individual without reference to contextual elements such as the co-presence of the partner. In this paper, we demonstrate that the accurate inference of listeners’ social-emotional state of attention depends on accounting for the nonverbal behaviors of their storytelling partner, namely their speaker cues. To gain a deeper understanding of the role of speaker cues in attention inference, we conduct investigations into real-world interactions of children (5–6 years old storytelling with their peers. Through in-depth analysis of human–human interaction data, we first identify nonverbal speaker cues (i.e., backchannel-inviting cues and listener responses (i.e., backchannel feedback. We then demonstrate how speaker cues can modify the interpretation of attention-related backchannels as well as serve as a means to regulate the responsiveness of listeners. We discuss the design implications of our findings toward our primary goal of developing attention recognition models for storytelling robots, and we argue that social robots can proactively use speaker cues to form more accurate inferences about the attentive state of their human partners.

  17. Cortical information flow during inferences of agency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myrthel eDogge

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Building on the recent finding that agency experiences do not merely rely on sensorimotor information but also on cognitive cues, this exploratory study uses electroencephalographic recordings to examine functional connectivity during agency inference processing in a setting where action and outcome are independent. Participants completed a computerized task in which they pressed a button followed by one of two color words (red or blue and rated their experienced agency over producing the color. Before executing the action, a matching or mismatching color word was pre-activated by explicitly instructing participants to produce the color (goal condition or by briefly presenting the color word (prime condition. In both conditions, experienced agency was higher in matching versus mismatching trials. Furthermore, increased electroencephalography (EEG-based connectivity strength was observed between parietal and frontal nodes and within the (prefrontal cortex when color-outcomes matched with goals and participants reported high agency. This pattern of increased connectivity was not identified in trials where outcomes were pre-activated through primes. These results suggest that different connections are involved in the experience and in the loss of agency, as well as in inferences of agency resulting from different types of pre-activation. Moreover, the findings provide novel support for the involvement of a fronto-parietal network in agency inferences.

  18. Phylogenetic Inference of HIV Transmission Clusters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlad Novitsky

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Better understanding the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks is essential for designing the most efficient interventions to prevent new HIV transmissions, and ultimately for gaining control of the HIV epidemic. The inference of phylogenetic relationships and the interpretation of results rely on the definition of the HIV transmission cluster. The definition of the HIV cluster is complex and dependent on multiple factors, including the design of sampling, accuracy of sequencing, precision of sequence alignment, evolutionary models, the phylogenetic method of inference, and specified thresholds for cluster support. While the majority of studies focus on clusters, non-clustered cases could also be highly informative. A new dimension in the analysis of the global and local HIV epidemics is the concept of phylogenetically distinct HIV sub-epidemics. The identification of active HIV sub-epidemics reveals spreading viral lineages and may help in the design of targeted interventions.HIVclustering can also be affected by sampling density. Obtaining a proper sampling density may increase statistical power and reduce sampling bias, so sampling density should be taken into account in study design and in interpretation of phylogenetic results. Finally, recent advances in long-range genotyping may enable more accurate inference of HIV transmission networks. If performed in real time, it could both inform public-health strategies and be clinically relevant (e.g., drug-resistance testing.

  19. Causal inference of asynchronous audiovisual speech

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John F Magnotti

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available During speech perception, humans integrate auditory information from the voice with visual information from the face. This multisensory integration increases perceptual precision, but only if the two cues come from the same talker; this requirement has been largely ignored by current models of speech perception. We describe a generative model of multisensory speech perception that includes this critical step of determining the likelihood that the voice and face information have a common cause. A key feature of the model is that it is based on a principled analysis of how an observer should solve this causal inference problem using the asynchrony between two cues and the reliability of the cues. This allows the model to make predictions abut the behavior of subjects performing a synchrony judgment task, predictive power that does not exist in other approaches, such as post hoc fitting of Gaussian curves to behavioral data. We tested the model predictions against the performance of 37 subjects performing a synchrony judgment task viewing audiovisual speech under a variety of manipulations, including varying asynchronies, intelligibility, and visual cue reliability. The causal inference model outperformed the Gaussian model across two experiments, providing a better fit to the behavioral data with fewer parameters. Because the causal inference model is derived from a principled understanding of the task, model parameters are directly interpretable in terms of stimulus and subject properties.

  20. Functional neuroanatomy of intuitive physical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Jason; Mikhael, John G; Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Kanwisher, Nancy

    2016-08-23

    To engage with the world-to understand the scene in front of us, plan actions, and predict what will happen next-we must have an intuitive grasp of the world's physical structure and dynamics. How do the objects in front of us rest on and support each other, how much force would be required to move them, and how will they behave when they fall, roll, or collide? Despite the centrality of physical inferences in daily life, little is known about the brain mechanisms recruited to interpret the physical structure of a scene and predict how physical events will unfold. Here, in a series of fMRI experiments, we identified a set of cortical regions that are selectively engaged when people watch and predict the unfolding of physical events-a "physics engine" in the brain. These brain regions are selective to physical inferences relative to nonphysical but otherwise highly similar scenes and tasks. However, these regions are not exclusively engaged in physical inferences per se or, indeed, even in scene understanding; they overlap with the domain-general "multiple demand" system, especially the parts of that system involved in action planning and tool use, pointing to a close relationship between the cognitive and neural mechanisms involved in parsing the physical content of a scene and preparing an appropriate action.

  1. Elements of Causal Inference: Foundations and Learning Algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peters, Jonas Martin; Janzing, Dominik; Schölkopf, Bernhard

    A concise and self-contained introduction to causal inference, increasingly important in data science and machine learning......A concise and self-contained introduction to causal inference, increasingly important in data science and machine learning...

  2. Integrating distributed Bayesian inference and reinforcement learning for sensor management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grappiolo, C.; Whiteson, S.; Pavlin, G.; Bakker, B.

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces a sensor management approach that integrates distributed Bayesian inference (DBI) and reinforcement learning (RL). DBI is implemented using distributed perception networks (DPNs), a multiagent approach to performing efficient inference, while RL is used to automatically

  3. The Three Mile Island Disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosby, Emeral

    1980-01-01

    For the past decade, education has been experiencing meltdown, explosions, radiation leaks, heat pollution, and management crises, just like the Three Mile Island disaster. This article offers suggestions on how to deal with these problems. (Author/LD)

  4. Ship impact against protection islands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    1997-01-01

    The five most exposed piers and the anchor blocks on the East Bridge shall be protected by aritificial islands. Extensive analytical and experimental investitations were carried out to verify the efficiency of how these protection works....

  5. Three Mile Island Accident Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Three Mile Island Accident Data consists of mostly upper air and wind observations immediately following the nuclear meltdown occurring on March 28, 1979, near...

  6. Archaeology of Bet Dwarka Island

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sundaresh; Gaur, A.S.

    Explorations along the shore and in the intertidal zone at Bet Dwarka island, Gujarat, India were carried out by the Marine Archaeology Centre of National Institute of Oceanography (NIO), Goa, India between 1981-1994. Artefacts of both...

  7. Magnetic island formation in tokamaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshikawa, S.

    1989-04-01

    The size of a magnetic island created by a perturbing helical field in a tokamak is estimated. A helical equilibrium of a current- carrying plasma is found in a helical coordinate and the helically flowing current in the cylinder that borders the plasma is calculated. From that solution, it is concluded that the helical perturbation of /approximately/10/sup /minus/4/ of the total plasma current is sufficient to cause an island width of approximately 5% of the plasma radius. 6 refs

  8. Island biodiversity conservation needs palaeoecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogué, Sandra; de Nascimento, Lea; Froyd, Cynthia A.

    2017-01-01

    to human activities. Consequently, even the most degraded islands are a focus for restoration, eradication, and monitoring programmes to protect the remaining endemic and/or relict populations. Here, we build a framework that incorporates an assessment of the degree of change from multiple baseline...... and the introduction of non-native species. We provide exemplification of how such approaches can provide valuable information for biodiversity conservation managers of island ecosystems....

  9. Bootstrapping phylogenies inferred from rearrangement data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Yu

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Large-scale sequencing of genomes has enabled the inference of phylogenies based on the evolution of genomic architecture, under such events as rearrangements, duplications, and losses. Many evolutionary models and associated algorithms have been designed over the last few years and have found use in comparative genomics and phylogenetic inference. However, the assessment of phylogenies built from such data has not been properly addressed to date. The standard method used in sequence-based phylogenetic inference is the bootstrap, but it relies on a large number of homologous characters that can be resampled; yet in the case of rearrangements, the entire genome is a single character. Alternatives such as the jackknife suffer from the same problem, while likelihood tests cannot be applied in the absence of well established probabilistic models. Results We present a new approach to the assessment of distance-based phylogenetic inference from whole-genome data; our approach combines features of the jackknife and the bootstrap and remains nonparametric. For each feature of our method, we give an equivalent feature in the sequence-based framework; we also present the results of extensive experimental testing, in both sequence-based and genome-based frameworks. Through the feature-by-feature comparison and the experimental results, we show that our bootstrapping approach is on par with the classic phylogenetic bootstrap used in sequence-based reconstruction, and we establish the clear superiority of the classic bootstrap for sequence data and of our corresponding new approach for rearrangement data over proposed variants. Finally, we test our approach on a small dataset of mammalian genomes, verifying that the support values match current thinking about the respective branches. Conclusions Our method is the first to provide a standard of assessment to match that of the classic phylogenetic bootstrap for aligned sequences. Its

  10. Bootstrapping phylogenies inferred from rearrangement data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yu; Rajan, Vaibhav; Moret, Bernard Me

    2012-08-29

    Large-scale sequencing of genomes has enabled the inference of phylogenies based on the evolution of genomic architecture, under such events as rearrangements, duplications, and losses. Many evolutionary models and associated algorithms have been designed over the last few years and have found use in comparative genomics and phylogenetic inference. However, the assessment of phylogenies built from such data has not been properly addressed to date. The standard method used in sequence-based phylogenetic inference is the bootstrap, but it relies on a large number of homologous characters that can be resampled; yet in the case of rearrangements, the entire genome is a single character. Alternatives such as the jackknife suffer from the same problem, while likelihood tests cannot be applied in the absence of well established probabilistic models. We present a new approach to the assessment of distance-based phylogenetic inference from whole-genome data; our approach combines features of the jackknife and the bootstrap and remains nonparametric. For each feature of our method, we give an equivalent feature in the sequence-based framework; we also present the results of extensive experimental testing, in both sequence-based and genome-based frameworks. Through the feature-by-feature comparison and the experimental results, we show that our bootstrapping approach is on par with the classic phylogenetic bootstrap used in sequence-based reconstruction, and we establish the clear superiority of the classic bootstrap for sequence data and of our corresponding new approach for rearrangement data over proposed variants. Finally, we test our approach on a small dataset of mammalian genomes, verifying that the support values match current thinking about the respective branches. Our method is the first to provide a standard of assessment to match that of the classic phylogenetic bootstrap for aligned sequences. Its support values follow a similar scale and its receiver

  11. Type Inference for Session Types in the Pi-Calculus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graversen, Eva Fajstrup; Harbo, Jacob Buchreitz; Huttel, Hans

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we present a direct algorithm for session type inference for the π-calculus. Type inference for session types has previously been achieved by either imposing limitations and restriction on the π-calculus, or by reducing the type inference problem to that for linear types. Our approach...

  12. Reasoning about Informal Statistical Inference: One Statistician's View

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossman, Allan J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper identifies key concepts and issues associated with the reasoning of informal statistical inference. I focus on key ideas of inference that I think all students should learn, including at secondary level as well as tertiary. I argue that a fundamental component of inference is to go beyond the data at hand, and I propose that statistical…

  13. Statistical Inference at Work: Statistical Process Control as an Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, Arthur; Kent, Phillip; Derry, Jan; Noss, Richard; Hoyles, Celia

    2008-01-01

    To characterise statistical inference in the workplace this paper compares a prototypical type of statistical inference at work, statistical process control (SPC), with a type of statistical inference that is better known in educational settings, hypothesis testing. Although there are some similarities between the reasoning structure involved in…

  14. Three Mile Island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    This document addresses the Three Mile Island accident which resulted in a core partial fusion. It recalls that other reactors of this plant are still being operated. The operation of this PWR is briefly described, and the main events and phases of the accident are briefly presented (failure of the secondary circuit supply pump, failure of a pressurizer component and wrong information about it, mistaken reaction in the control room, core partial fusion due to insufficient cooling means). It shows that the accident occurred because of a combination of technical failures and human mistakes. This situation has put operator education and organisation into question again. The main actors and their mistakes, weaknesses and responsibilities are indicated: Metropolitan Edison (the operator), the NRC (the US nuclear safety authority). Some key figures are recalled, as well as the context of construction of the plant. Impacts and consequences are reviewed: implementation of new standards, population concern. The document outlines that radioactive exposures due to the accident were minor

  15. Arctic Islands LNG

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hindle, W.

    1977-01-01

    Trans-Canada Pipe Lines Ltd. made a feasibility study of transporting LNG from the High Arctic Islands to a St. Lawrence River Terminal by means of a specially designed and built 125,000 cu m or 165,000 cu m icebreaking LNG tanker. Studies were made of the climatology and of ice conditions, using available statistical data as well as direct surveys in 1974, 1975, and 1976. For on-schedule and unimpeded (unescorted) passage of the LNG carriers at all times of the year, special navigation and communications systems can be made available. Available icebreaking experience, charting for the proposed tanker routes, and tide tables for the Canadian Arctic were surveyed. Preliminary design of a proposed Arctic LNG icebreaker tanker, including containment system, reliquefaction of boiloff, speed, power, number of trips for 345 day/yr operation, and liquefaction and regasification facilities are discussed. The use of a minimum of three Arctic Class 10 ships would enable delivery of volumes of natural gas averaging 11.3 million cu m/day over a period of a year to Canadian markets. The concept appears to be technically feasible with existing basic technology.

  16. Is there a hierarchy of social inferences? The likelihood and speed of inferring intentionality, mind, and personality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malle, Bertram F; Holbrook, Jess

    2012-04-01

    People interpret behavior by making inferences about agents' intentionality, mind, and personality. Past research studied such inferences 1 at a time; in real life, people make these inferences simultaneously. The present studies therefore examined whether 4 major inferences (intentionality, desire, belief, and personality), elicited simultaneously in response to an observed behavior, might be ordered in a hierarchy of likelihood and speed. To achieve generalizability, the studies included a wide range of stimulus behaviors, presented them verbally and as dynamic videos, and assessed inferences both in a retrieval paradigm (measuring the likelihood and speed of accessing inferences immediately after they were made) and in an online processing paradigm (measuring the speed of forming inferences during behavior observation). Five studies provide evidence for a hierarchy of social inferences-from intentionality and desire to belief to personality-that is stable across verbal and visual presentations and that parallels the order found in developmental and primate research. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  17. The inference from a single case: moral versus scientific inferences in implementing new biotechnologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmann, B

    2008-06-01

    Are there similarities between scientific and moral inference? This is the key question in this article. It takes as its point of departure an instance of one person's story in the media changing both Norwegian public opinion and a brand-new Norwegian law prohibiting the use of saviour siblings. The case appears to falsify existing norms and to establish new ones. The analysis of this case reveals similarities in the modes of inference in science and morals, inasmuch as (a) a single case functions as a counter-example to an existing rule; (b) there is a common presupposition of stability, similarity and order, which makes it possible to reason from a few cases to a general rule; and (c) this makes it possible to hold things together and retain order. In science, these modes of inference are referred to as falsification, induction and consistency. In morals, they have a variety of other names. Hence, even without abandoning the fact-value divide, there appear to be similarities between inference in science and inference in morals, which may encourage communication across the boundaries between "the two cultures" and which are relevant to medical humanities.

  18. Geographical, Temporal and Environmental Determinants of Bryophyte Species Richness in the Macaronesian Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aranda, Silvia C.; Gabriel, Rosalina; Borges, Paulo A. V.; Santos, Ana M. C.; de Azevedo, Eduardo Brito; Patiño, Jairo; Hortal, Joaquín; Lobo, Jorge M.

    2014-01-01

    Species richness on oceanic islands has been related to a series of ecological factors including island size and isolation (i.e. the Equilibrium Model of Island Biogeography, EMIB), habitat diversity, climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation) and more recently island ontogeny (i.e. the General Dynamic Model of oceanic island biogeography, GDM). Here we evaluate the relationship of these factors with the diversity of bryophytes in the Macaronesian region (Azores, Madeira, Canary Islands and Cape Verde). The predictive power of EMIB, habitat diversity, climate and the GDM on total bryophyte richness, as well as moss and liverwort richness (the two dominant bryophyte groups), was evaluated through ordinary least squares regressions. After choosing the best subset of variables using inference statistics, we used partial regression analyses to identify the independent and shared effects of each model. The variables included within each model were similar for mosses and liverworts, with orographic mist layer being one of the most important predictors of richness. Models combining climate with either the GDM or habitat diversity explained most of richness variation (up to 91%). There was a high portion of shared variance between all pairwise combinations of factors in mosses, while in liverworts around half of the variability in species richness was accounted for exclusively by climate. Our results suggest that the effects of climate and habitat are strong and prevalent in this region, while geographical factors have limited influence on Macaronesian bryophyte diversity. Although climate is of great importance for liverwort richness, in mosses its effect is similar to or, at least, indiscernible from the effect of habitat diversity and, strikingly, the effect of island ontogeny. These results indicate that for highly vagile taxa on oceanic islands, the dispersal process may be less important for successful colonization than the availability of suitable ecological

  19. Foundation Investigation for Ground Based Radar Project-Kwajalein Island, Marshall Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-04-01

    iL_ COPY MISCELLANEOUS PAPER GL-90-5 i iFOUNDATION INVESTIGATION FOR GROUND BASED RADAR PROJECT--KWAJALEIN ISLAND, MARSHALL ISLANDS by Donald E...C!assification) Foundatioa Investigation for Ground Based Radar Project -- Kwajalein Island, Marshall Islands 12. PERSONAL AUTHOR(S) Yule, Donald E...investigation for the Ground Based Radar Project -- Kwajalein Island, Marshall Islands , are presented.- eophysical tests comprised of surface refrac- tion

  20. Bryophytes from Simeonof Island in the Shumagin Islands, southwestern Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schofield, W.B.; Talbot, S. S.; Talbot, S.L.

    2004-01-01

    Simeonof Island is located south of the Alaska Peninsula in the hyperoceanic sector of the middle boreal subzone. We examined the bryoflora of Simeonof Island to determine species composition in an area where no previous collections had been reported. This field study was conducted in sites selected to represent the spectrum of environmental variation within Simeonof Island. Data were analyzed using published reports to compare bryophyte distribution patterns at three levels, the Northern Hemisphere, North America, and Alaska. A total of 271 bryophytes were identified: 202 mosses and 69 liverworts. The annotated list of species for Simeonof Island expands the known range for many species and fills distribution gaps within Hulte??n's Western Pacific Coast district. Maps and notes on the distribution of 14 significant distribution records are presented. Compared with bryophyte distribution in the Northern Hemisphere, the bryoflora of Simeonof Island primarily includes taxa of boreal (55%), temperate (20%), arctic (10%), and cosmopolitan (8%) distribution; 6% of the moss flora are western North America endemics. A description of the bryophytes present in the vegetation and habitat types is provided as is a quantitative analysis of the most frequently occurring bryophytes in crowberry heath.

  1. Nonparametric inference of network structure and dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peixoto, Tiago P.

    The network structure of complex systems determine their function and serve as evidence for the evolutionary mechanisms that lie behind them. Despite considerable effort in recent years, it remains an open challenge to formulate general descriptions of the large-scale structure of network systems, and how to reliably extract such information from data. Although many approaches have been proposed, few methods attempt to gauge the statistical significance of the uncovered structures, and hence the majority cannot reliably separate actual structure from stochastic fluctuations. Due to the sheer size and high-dimensionality of many networks, this represents a major limitation that prevents meaningful interpretations of the results obtained with such nonstatistical methods. In this talk, I will show how these issues can be tackled in a principled and efficient fashion by formulating appropriate generative models of network structure that can have their parameters inferred from data. By employing a Bayesian description of such models, the inference can be performed in a nonparametric fashion, that does not require any a priori knowledge or ad hoc assumptions about the data. I will show how this approach can be used to perform model comparison, and how hierarchical models yield the most appropriate trade-off between model complexity and quality of fit based on the statistical evidence present in the data. I will also show how this general approach can be elegantly extended to networks with edge attributes, that are embedded in latent spaces, and that change in time. The latter is obtained via a fully dynamic generative network model, based on arbitrary-order Markov chains, that can also be inferred in a nonparametric fashion. Throughout the talk I will illustrate the application of the methods with many empirical networks such as the internet at the autonomous systems level, the global airport network, the network of actors and films, social networks, citations among

  2. Impact of noise on molecular network inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radhakrishnan Nagarajan

    Full Text Available Molecular entities work in concert as a system and mediate phenotypic outcomes and disease states. There has been recent interest in modelling the associations between molecular entities from their observed expression profiles as networks using a battery of algorithms. These networks have proven to be useful abstractions of the underlying pathways and signalling mechanisms. Noise is ubiquitous in molecular data and can have a pronounced effect on the inferred network. Noise can be an outcome of several factors including: inherent stochastic mechanisms at the molecular level, variation in the abundance of molecules, heterogeneity, sensitivity of the biological assay or measurement artefacts prevalent especially in high-throughput settings. The present study investigates the impact of discrepancies in noise variance on pair-wise dependencies, conditional dependencies and constraint-based Bayesian network structure learning algorithms that incorporate conditional independence tests as a part of the learning process. Popular network motifs and fundamental connections, namely: (a common-effect, (b three-chain, and (c coherent type-I feed-forward loop (FFL are investigated. The choice of these elementary networks can be attributed to their prevalence across more complex networks. Analytical expressions elucidating the impact of discrepancies in noise variance on pairwise dependencies and conditional dependencies for special cases of these motifs are presented. Subsequently, the impact of noise on two popular constraint-based Bayesian network structure learning algorithms such as Grow-Shrink (GS and Incremental Association Markov Blanket (IAMB that implicitly incorporate tests for conditional independence is investigated. Finally, the impact of noise on networks inferred from publicly available single cell molecular expression profiles is investigated. While discrepancies in noise variance are overlooked in routine molecular network inference, the

  3. Bayesian Estimation and Inference using Stochastic Hardware

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chetan Singh Thakur

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present the implementation of two types of Bayesian inference problems to demonstrate the potential of building probabilistic algorithms in hardware using single set of building blocks with the ability to perform these computations in real time. The first implementation, referred to as the BEAST (Bayesian Estimation and Stochastic Tracker, demonstrates a simple problem where an observer uses an underlying Hidden Markov Model (HMM to track a target in one dimension. In this implementation, sensors make noisy observations of the target position at discrete time steps. The tracker learns the transition model for target movement, and the observation model for the noisy sensors, and uses these to estimate the target position by solving the Bayesian recursive equation online. We show the tracking performance of the system and demonstrate how it can learn the observation model, the transition model, and the external distractor (noise probability interfering with the observations. In the second implementation, referred to as the Bayesian INference in DAG (BIND, we show how inference can be performed in a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG using stochastic circuits. We show how these building blocks can be easily implemented using simple digital logic gates. An advantage of the stochastic electronic implementation is that it is robust to certain types of noise, which may become an issue in integrated circuit (IC technology with feature sizes in the order of tens of nanometers due to their low noise margin, the effect of high-energy cosmic rays and the low supply voltage. In our framework, the flipping of random individual bits would not affect the system performance because information is encoded in a bit stream.

  4. Bayesian Estimation and Inference Using Stochastic Electronics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakur, Chetan Singh; Afshar, Saeed; Wang, Runchun M; Hamilton, Tara J; Tapson, Jonathan; van Schaik, André

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we present the implementation of two types of Bayesian inference problems to demonstrate the potential of building probabilistic algorithms in hardware using single set of building blocks with the ability to perform these computations in real time. The first implementation, referred to as the BEAST (Bayesian Estimation and Stochastic Tracker), demonstrates a simple problem where an observer uses an underlying Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to track a target in one dimension. In this implementation, sensors make noisy observations of the target position at discrete time steps. The tracker learns the transition model for target movement, and the observation model for the noisy sensors, and uses these to estimate the target position by solving the Bayesian recursive equation online. We show the tracking performance of the system and demonstrate how it can learn the observation model, the transition model, and the external distractor (noise) probability interfering with the observations. In the second implementation, referred to as the Bayesian INference in DAG (BIND), we show how inference can be performed in a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) using stochastic circuits. We show how these building blocks can be easily implemented using simple digital logic gates. An advantage of the stochastic electronic implementation is that it is robust to certain types of noise, which may become an issue in integrated circuit (IC) technology with feature sizes in the order of tens of nanometers due to their low noise margin, the effect of high-energy cosmic rays and the low supply voltage. In our framework, the flipping of random individual bits would not affect the system performance because information is encoded in a bit stream.

  5. Children's and adults' judgments of the certainty of deductive inferences, inductive inferences, and guesses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillow, Bradford H; Pearson, Raeanne M; Hecht, Mary; Bremer, Amanda

    2010-01-01

    Children and adults rated their own certainty following inductive inferences, deductive inferences, and guesses. Beginning in kindergarten, participants rated deductions as more certain than weak inductions or guesses. Deductions were rated as more certain than strong inductions beginning in Grade 3, and fourth-grade children and adults differentiated strong inductions, weak inductions, and informed guesses from pure guesses. By Grade 3, participants also gave different types of explanations for their deductions and inductions. These results are discussed in relation to children's concepts of cognitive processes, logical reasoning, and epistemological development.

  6. Robust Inference with Multi-way Clustering

    OpenAIRE

    A. Colin Cameron; Jonah B. Gelbach; Douglas L. Miller; Doug Miller

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we propose a variance estimator for the OLS estimator as well as for nonlinear estimators such as logit, probit and GMM. This variance estimator enables cluster-robust inference when there is two-way or multi-way clustering that is non-nested. The variance estimator extends the standard cluster-robust variance estimator or sandwich estimator for one-way clustering (e.g. Liang and Zeger (1986), Arellano (1987)) and relies on similar relatively weak distributional assumptions. Our...

  7. Approximate Inference and Deep Generative Models

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2018-01-01

    Advances in deep generative models are at the forefront of deep learning research because of the promise they offer for allowing data-efficient learning, and for model-based reinforcement learning. In this talk I'll review a few standard methods for approximate inference and introduce modern approximations which allow for efficient large-scale training of a wide variety of generative models. Finally, I'll demonstrate several important application of these models to density estimation, missing data imputation, data compression and planning.

  8. Abductive Inference using Array-Based Logic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frisvad, Jeppe Revall; Falster, Peter; Møller, Gert L.

    The notion of abduction has found its usage within a wide variety of AI fields. Computing abductive solutions has, however, shown to be highly intractable in logic programming. To avoid this intractability we present a new approach to logicbased abduction; through the geometrical view of data...... employed in array-based logic we embrace abduction in a simple structural operation. We argue that a theory of abduction on this form allows for an implementation which, at runtime, can perform abductive inference quite efficiently on arbitrary rules of logic representing knowledge of finite domains....

  9. Generic Patch Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper; Lawall, Julia Laetitia

    2008-01-01

    A key issue in maintaining Linux device drivers is the need to update drivers in response to evolutions in Linux internal libraries. Currently, there is little tool support for performing and documenting such changes. In this paper we present a tool, spfind, that identifies common changes made...... developers can use it to extract an abstract representation of the set of changes that others have made. Our experiments on recent changes in Linux show that the inferred generic patches are more concise than the corresponding patches found in commits to the Linux source tree while being safe with respect...

  10. Inverse Ising Inference Using All the Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aurell, Erik; Ekeberg, Magnus

    2012-03-01

    We show that a method based on logistic regression, using all the data, solves the inverse Ising problem far better than mean-field calculations relying only on sample pairwise correlation functions, while still computationally feasible for hundreds of nodes. The largest improvement in reconstruction occurs for strong interactions. Using two examples, a diluted Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model and a two-dimensional lattice, we also show that interaction topologies can be recovered from few samples with good accuracy and that the use of l1 regularization is beneficial in this process, pushing inference abilities further into low-temperature regimes.

  11. Barrier island facies models and recognition criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulhern, J.; Johnson, C. L.

    2017-12-01

    Barrier island outcrops record transgressive shoreline motion at geologic timescales, providing integral clues to understanding how coastlines respond to rising sea levels. However, barrier island deposits are difficult to recognize. While significant progress has been made in understanding the modern coastal morphodynamics, this insight is not fully leveraged in existing barrier island facies models. Excellent outcrop exposures of the paralic Upper Cretaceous Straight Cliffs Formation of southern Utah provide an opportunity to revise facies models and recognition criteria for barrier island deposits. Preserved barrier islands are composed of three main architectural elements (shorefaces, tidal inlets, and tidal channels) which occur independently or in combination to create larger-scale barrier island deposits. Barrier island shorefaces record progradation, while barrier island tidal inlets record lateral migration, and barrier island tidal channels record aggradation within the tidal inlet. Four facies associations are used to describe and characterize these barrier island architectural elements. Barrier islands occur in association with backarrier fill and internally contain lower and upper shoreface, high-energy upper shoreface, and tidal channel facies. Barrier islands bound lagoons or estuaries, and are distinguished from other shoreface deposits by their internal facies and geometry, association with backbarrier facies, and position within transgressive successions. Tidal processes, in particular tidal inlet migration and reworking of the upper shoreface, also distinguish barrier island deposits. Existing barrier island models highlight the short term heterogeneous and dynamic nature of barrier island systems, yet overlook processes tied to geologic time scales, such as multi-directional motion, erosion, and reworking, and their expressions in preserved barrier island strata. This study uses characteristic outcrop expressions of barrier island successions to

  12. One million served: Rhode Island`s recycling facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malloy, M.G.

    1997-11-01

    Rhode Island`s landfill and adjacent materials recovery facility (MRF) in Johnston, both owned by the quasi-public Rhode Island Resource Recovery Corp. (RIRRC, Johnston), serve the entire state. The $12-million recycling facility was built in 1989 next to the state`s sole landfill, the Central Landfill, which accepts only in-state trash. The MRF is operated for RIRRC by New England CRInc. (Hampton, N.H.), a unit of Waste Management, Inc. (WMI, Oak Brook, Ill.). It handles a wide variety of materials, from the usual newspaper, cardboard, and mixed containers to new streams such as wood waste, scrap metal, aseptic packaging (milk and juice boxes), and even textiles. State municipalities are in the process of adding many of these new recyclable streams into their curbside collection programs, all of which feed the facility.

  13. Terrestrial bird population trends on Aguiguan (Goat Island), Mariana Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amidon, Fred; Camp, Richard J.; Marshall, Ann P.; Pratt, Thane K.; Williams, Laura; Radley, Paul; Cruz, Justine B.

    2014-01-01

    The island of Aguiguan is part of the Mariana archipelago and currently supports populations of four endemic species, including one endemic genus, Cleptornis. Bird population trends since 1982 were recently assessed on the neighbouring islands of Saipan, Tinian, and Rota indicating declines in some native species. Point-transect surveys were conducted in 2008 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to assess population densities and trends on Aguiguan. Densities for six of the nine native birds—White-throated Ground-dove Gallicolumba xanthonura, Collared Kingfisher Todiramphus chloris, Rufous Fantail Rhipidura rufifrons, Golden White-eye Cleptornis marchei, Bridled White-eye Zosterops conspicillatus and Micronesian Starling Aplonis opaca—and the non-native bird—Island Collared-dove Streptopelia bitorquata—were significantly greater in 2008 than in 1982. No differences in densities were detected among the surveys for Mariana Fruit-dove Ptilinopus roseicapilla, and Micronesian MyzomelaMyzomela rubratra. Three federally and locally listed endangered birds—Nightingale Reed-warbler Acrocephalus luscinius, Mariana Swiftlet Collocalia bartschi, and Micronesian Megapode Megapodius laperous)—were either not detected during the point-transect counts, the surveys were not appropriate for the species, or the numbers of birds detected were too small to estimate densities. The factors behind the increasing trends for some species are unknown but may be related to increased forest cover on the island since 1982. With declining trends for some native species on neighbouring islands, the increasing and stable trends on Aguiguan is good news for forest bird populations in the region, as Aguiguan populations can help support conservation efforts on other islands in the archipelago.

  14. Late Quaternary climate change shapes island biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weigelt, Patrick; Steinbauer, Manuel; Cabral, Juliano

    2016-01-01

    Island biogeographical models consider islands either as geologically static with biodiversity resulting from ecologically neutral immigration–extinction dynamics1, or as geologically dynamic with biodiversity resulting from immigration–speciation–extinction dynamics influenced by changes in island...... sea levels3, 4 and caused massive changes in island area, isolation and connectivity5, orders of magnitude faster than the geological processes of island formation, subsidence and erosion considered in island theory2, 6. Consequences of these oscillations for present biodiversity remain unassessed5, 7...

  15. Quantum Enhanced Inference in Markov Logic Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittek, Peter; Gogolin, Christian

    2017-04-19

    Markov logic networks (MLNs) reconcile two opposing schools in machine learning and artificial intelligence: causal networks, which account for uncertainty extremely well, and first-order logic, which allows for formal deduction. An MLN is essentially a first-order logic template to generate Markov networks. Inference in MLNs is probabilistic and it is often performed by approximate methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Gibbs sampling. An MLN has many regular, symmetric structures that can be exploited at both first-order level and in the generated Markov network. We analyze the graph structures that are produced by various lifting methods and investigate the extent to which quantum protocols can be used to speed up Gibbs sampling with state preparation and measurement schemes. We review different such approaches, discuss their advantages, theoretical limitations, and their appeal to implementations. We find that a straightforward application of a recent result yields exponential speedup compared to classical heuristics in approximate probabilistic inference, thereby demonstrating another example where advanced quantum resources can potentially prove useful in machine learning.

  16. Inferring network topology from complex dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shandilya, Srinivas Gorur; Timme, Marc

    2011-01-01

    Inferring the network topology from dynamical observations is a fundamental problem pervading research on complex systems. Here, we present a simple, direct method for inferring the structural connection topology of a network, given an observation of one collective dynamical trajectory. The general theoretical framework is applicable to arbitrary network dynamical systems described by ordinary differential equations. No interference (external driving) is required and the type of dynamics is hardly restricted in any way. In particular, the observed dynamics may be arbitrarily complex; stationary, invariant or transient; synchronous or asynchronous and chaotic or periodic. Presupposing a knowledge of the functional form of the dynamical units and of the coupling functions between them, we present an analytical solution to the inverse problem of finding the network topology from observing a time series of state variables only. Robust reconstruction is achieved in any sufficiently long generic observation of the system. We extend our method to simultaneously reconstructing both the entire network topology and all parameters appearing linear in the system's equations of motion. Reconstruction of network topology and system parameters is viable even in the presence of external noise that distorts the original dynamics substantially. The method provides a conceptually new step towards reconstructing a variety of real-world networks, including gene and protein interaction networks and neuronal circuits.

  17. Inferring climate sensitivity from volcanic events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boer, G.J. [Environment Canada, University of Victoria, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); Stowasser, M.; Hamilton, K. [University of Hawaii, International Pacific Research Centre, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    2007-04-15

    The possibility of estimating the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the earth-system from observations following explosive volcanic eruptions is assessed in the context of a perfect model study. Two modern climate models (the CCCma CGCM3 and the NCAR CCSM2) with different equilibrium climate sensitivities are employed in the investigation. The models are perturbed with the same transient volcano-like forcing and the responses analysed to infer climate sensitivities. For volcano-like forcing the global mean surface temperature responses of the two models are very similar, despite their differing equilibrium climate sensitivities, indicating that climate sensitivity cannot be inferred from the temperature record alone even if the forcing is known. Equilibrium climate sensitivities can be reasonably determined only if both the forcing and the change in heat storage in the system are known very accurately. The geographic patterns of clear-sky atmosphere/surface and cloud feedbacks are similar for both the transient volcano-like and near-equilibrium constant forcing simulations showing that, to a considerable extent, the same feedback processes are invoked, and determine the climate sensitivity, in both cases. (orig.)

  18. Facility Activity Inference Using Radiation Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rao, Nageswara S. [ORNL; Ramirez Aviles, Camila A. [ORNL

    2017-11-01

    We consider the problem of inferring the operational status of a reactor facility using measurements from a radiation sensor network deployed around the facility’s ventilation off-gas stack. The intensity of stack emissions decays with distance, and the sensor counts or measurements are inherently random with parameters determined by the intensity at the sensor’s location. We utilize the measurements to estimate the intensity at the stack, and use it in a one-sided Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) to infer on/off status of the reactor. We demonstrate the superior performance of this method over conventional majority fusers and individual sensors using (i) test measurements from a network of 21 NaI detectors, and (ii) effluence measurements collected at the stack of a reactor facility. We also analytically establish the superior detection performance of the network over individual sensors with fixed and adaptive thresholds by utilizing the Poisson distribution of the counts. We quantify the performance improvements of the network detection over individual sensors using the packing number of the intensity space.

  19. Models for inference in dynamic metacommunity systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorazio, Robert M.; Kery, Marc; Royle, J. Andrew; Plattner, Matthias

    2010-01-01

    A variety of processes are thought to be involved in the formation and dynamics of species assemblages. For example, various metacommunity theories are based on differences in the relative contributions of dispersal of species among local communities and interactions of species within local communities. Interestingly, metacommunity theories continue to be advanced without much empirical validation. Part of the problem is that statistical models used to analyze typical survey data either fail to specify ecological processes with sufficient complexity or they fail to account for errors in detection of species during sampling. In this paper, we describe a statistical modeling framework for the analysis of metacommunity dynamics that is based on the idea of adopting a unified approach, multispecies occupancy modeling, for computing inferences about individual species, local communities of species, or the entire metacommunity of species. This approach accounts for errors in detection of species during sampling and also allows different metacommunity paradigms to be specified in terms of species- and location-specific probabilities of occurrence, extinction, and colonization: all of which are estimable. In addition, this approach can be used to address inference problems that arise in conservation ecology, such as predicting temporal and spatial changes in biodiversity for use in making conservation decisions. To illustrate, we estimate changes in species composition associated with the species-specific phenologies of flight patterns of butterflies in Switzerland for the purpose of estimating regional differences in biodiversity.

  20. Causal inference, probability theory, and graphical insights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Stuart G

    2013-11-10

    Causal inference from observational studies is a fundamental topic in biostatistics. The causal graph literature typically views probability theory as insufficient to express causal concepts in observational studies. In contrast, the view here is that probability theory is a desirable and sufficient basis for many topics in causal inference for the following two reasons. First, probability theory is generally more flexible than causal graphs: Besides explaining such causal graph topics as M-bias (adjusting for a collider) and bias amplification and attenuation (when adjusting for instrumental variable), probability theory is also the foundation of the paired availability design for historical controls, which does not fit into a causal graph framework. Second, probability theory is the basis for insightful graphical displays including the BK-Plot for understanding Simpson's paradox with a binary confounder, the BK2-Plot for understanding bias amplification and attenuation in the presence of an unobserved binary confounder, and the PAD-Plot for understanding the principal stratification component of the paired availability design. Published 2013. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  1. Inferring relevance in a changing world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert C Wilson

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Reinforcement learning models of human and animal learning usually concentrate on how we learn the relationship between different stimuli or actions and rewards. However, in real world situations stimuli are ill-defined. On the one hand, our immediate environment is extremely multi-dimensional. On the other hand, in every decision-making scenario only a few aspects of the environment are relevant for obtaining reward, while most are irrelevant. Thus a key question is how do we learn these relevant dimensions, that is, how do we learn what to learn about? We investigated this process of representation learning experimentally, using a task in which one stimulus dimension was relevant for determining reward at each point in time. As in real life situations, in our task the relevant dimension can change without warning, adding ever-present uncertainty engendered by a constantly changing environment. We show that human performance on this task is better described by a suboptimal strategy based on selective attention and serial hypothesis testing rather than a normative strategy based on probabilistic inference. From this, we conjecture that the problem of inferring relevance in general scenarios is too computationally demanding for the brain to solve optimally. As a result the brain utilizes approximations, employing these even in simplified scenarios in which optimal representation learning is tractable, such as the one in our experiment.

  2. Automated adaptive inference of phenomenological dynamical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, Bryan

    Understanding the dynamics of biochemical systems can seem impossibly complicated at the microscopic level: detailed properties of every molecular species, including those that have not yet been discovered, could be important for producing macroscopic behavior. The profusion of data in this area has raised the hope that microscopic dynamics might be recovered in an automated search over possible models, yet the combinatorial growth of this space has limited these techniques to systems that contain only a few interacting species. We take a different approach inspired by coarse-grained, phenomenological models in physics. Akin to a Taylor series producing Hooke's Law, forgoing microscopic accuracy allows us to constrain the search over dynamical models to a single dimension. This makes it feasible to infer dynamics with very limited data, including cases in which important dynamical variables are unobserved. We name our method Sir Isaac after its ability to infer the dynamical structure of the law of gravitation given simulated planetary motion data. Applying the method to output from a microscopically complicated but macroscopically simple biological signaling model, it is able to adapt the level of detail to the amount of available data. Finally, using nematode behavioral time series data, the method discovers an effective switch between behavioral attractors after the application of a painful stimulus.

  3. Graphical models for inferring single molecule dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonzalez Ruben L

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The recent explosion of experimental techniques in single molecule biophysics has generated a variety of novel time series data requiring equally novel computational tools for analysis and inference. This article describes in general terms how graphical modeling may be used to learn from biophysical time series data using the variational Bayesian expectation maximization algorithm (VBEM. The discussion is illustrated by the example of single-molecule fluorescence resonance energy transfer (smFRET versus time data, where the smFRET time series is modeled as a hidden Markov model (HMM with Gaussian observables. A detailed description of smFRET is provided as well. Results The VBEM algorithm returns the model’s evidence and an approximating posterior parameter distribution given the data. The former provides a metric for model selection via maximum evidence (ME, and the latter a description of the model’s parameters learned from the data. ME/VBEM provide several advantages over the more commonly used approach of maximum likelihood (ML optimized by the expectation maximization (EM algorithm, the most important being a natural form of model selection and a well-posed (non-divergent optimization problem. Conclusions The results demonstrate the utility of graphical modeling for inference of dynamic processes in single molecule biophysics.

  4. Quantum Enhanced Inference in Markov Logic Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittek, Peter; Gogolin, Christian

    2017-04-01

    Markov logic networks (MLNs) reconcile two opposing schools in machine learning and artificial intelligence: causal networks, which account for uncertainty extremely well, and first-order logic, which allows for formal deduction. An MLN is essentially a first-order logic template to generate Markov networks. Inference in MLNs is probabilistic and it is often performed by approximate methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Gibbs sampling. An MLN has many regular, symmetric structures that can be exploited at both first-order level and in the generated Markov network. We analyze the graph structures that are produced by various lifting methods and investigate the extent to which quantum protocols can be used to speed up Gibbs sampling with state preparation and measurement schemes. We review different such approaches, discuss their advantages, theoretical limitations, and their appeal to implementations. We find that a straightforward application of a recent result yields exponential speedup compared to classical heuristics in approximate probabilistic inference, thereby demonstrating another example where advanced quantum resources can potentially prove useful in machine learning.

  5. Causal Inference in the Perception of Verticality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Winkel, Ksander N; Katliar, Mikhail; Diers, Daniel; Bülthoff, Heinrich H

    2018-04-03

    The perceptual upright is thought to be constructed by the central nervous system (CNS) as a vector sum; by combining estimates on the upright provided by the visual system and the body's inertial sensors with prior knowledge that upright is usually above the head. Recent findings furthermore show that the weighting of the respective sensory signals is proportional to their reliability, consistent with a Bayesian interpretation of a vector sum (Forced Fusion, FF). However, violations of FF have also been reported, suggesting that the CNS may rely on a single sensory system (Cue Capture, CC), or choose to process sensory signals based on inferred signal causality (Causal Inference, CI). We developed a novel alternative-reality system to manipulate visual and physical tilt independently. We tasked participants (n = 36) to indicate the perceived upright for various (in-)congruent combinations of visual-inertial stimuli, and compared models based on their agreement with the data. The results favor the CI model over FF, although this effect became unambiguous only for large discrepancies (±60°). We conclude that the notion of a vector sum does not provide a comprehensive explanation of the perception of the upright, and that CI offers a better alternative.

  6. Late Quaternary climate change shapes island biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigelt, Patrick; Steinbauer, Manuel Jonas; Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Kreft, Holger

    2016-04-07

    Island biogeographical models consider islands either as geologically static with biodiversity resulting from ecologically neutral immigration-extinction dynamics, or as geologically dynamic with biodiversity resulting from immigration-speciation-extinction dynamics influenced by changes in island characteristics over millions of years. Present climate and spatial arrangement of islands, however, are rather exceptional compared to most of the Late Quaternary, which is characterized by recurrent cooler and drier glacial periods. These climatic oscillations over short geological timescales strongly affected sea levels and caused massive changes in island area, isolation and connectivity, orders of magnitude faster than the geological processes of island formation, subsidence and erosion considered in island theory. Consequences of these oscillations for present biodiversity remain unassessed. Here we analyse the effects of present and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) island area, isolation, elevation and climate on key components of angiosperm diversity on islands worldwide. We find that post-LGM changes in island characteristics, especially in area, have left a strong imprint on present diversity of endemic species. Specifically, the number and proportion of endemic species today is significantly higher on islands that were larger during the LGM. Native species richness, in turn, is mostly determined by present island characteristics. We conclude that an appreciation of Late Quaternary environmental change is essential to understand patterns of island endemism and its underlying evolutionary dynamics.

  7. Greece, Milos Island Geothermal Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delliou, E.E.

    1990-01-01

    On Milos island (Aegean Sea) a high enthalpy, water dominated geothermal field of high salinity exists. At 1985, a 2MW geothermoelectric pilot plant was installed on the island. This plant has been provided by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries of Japan under a contract with Public Power Corporation of Greece. Due to high salinity of the geothermal fluid, unforeseen problems (scaling mainly) arisen in both steam and brine cycles. As a consequence, the operation (trial mainly) of the power plant have been interrupted several times for long periods, in order to identify the arisen, each time, problems and find the most appropriate technical solution. The above fact, as well as, some unfortunate coincidences described in this paper, led Milos people to react against geothermal development in their island. The sequence of the events, technical and non-technical, their approach and the relevant conclusions are reported in this presentation

  8. Dust Storm Hits Canary Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    A thick pall of sand and dust blew out from the Sahara Desert over the Atlantic Ocean yesterday (January 6, 2002), engulfing the Canary Islands in what has become one of the worst sand storms ever recorded there. In this scene, notice how the dust appears particularly thick in the downwind wake of Tenerife, the largest of the Canary Islands. Perhaps the turbulence generated by the air currents flowing past the island's volcanic peaks is churning the dust back up into the atmosphere, rather than allowing it to settle toward the surface. This true-color image was captured by the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), flying aboard NASA's Terra satellite, on January 7, 2002. Image courtesy Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC

  9. Anthropic pressures on Egadi Islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peronaci, Marcello; Luciani, Roberto

    2015-01-01

    The Egadi Islands, like most Mediterranean islets, have radically changed the traditional lifestyle and the economic development model, based for centuries on the almost self-sufficient resources and production activities, mostly related to the sea (fishing and fish processing) and to the land. During the second half of the 1900., the development of transport radically transformed this model to make smaller islands, at least those closest to the coast, more tightly interconnected and dependent on the mainland. In particular, in Favignana, which is the most populous island and very close to the coast, the traditional activities tourism have led to a strong anthropic pressure concentrated in a few months of the year (summer) on the one hand, and a reduction of the resident population during the winter months on the other, with a serious impact on the care of the land [it

  10. Constraint Satisfaction Inference : Non-probabilistic Global Inference for Sequence Labelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Canisius, S.V.M.; van den Bosch, A.; Daelemans, W.; Basili, R.; Moschitti, A.

    2006-01-01

    We present a new method for performing sequence labelling based on the idea of using a machine-learning classifier to generate several possible output sequences, and then applying an inference procedure to select the best sequence among those. Most sequence labelling methods following a similar

  11. Changes in the landsnail fauna of Lady Alice Island, northeastern New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brook, F.J.

    1999-01-01

    A small coastal dunefield on Lady Alice Island off northern New Zealand incorporates a stratigraphic record of the historic period and much if not all of the period of prehistoric Maori occupation of the island. Fossil landsnail faunas from the dunefield are closely comparable with those from present-day dune shrubland habitats and differ from contiguous hillslope forest and shrubland faunas. Three of the landsnail species are no longer extant on Lady Alice Island. Two are large species (Amborhytida tarangensis, Placostylus hongii) that are inferred to have become extinct following the introduction of kiore (Rattus exulans) to the island. Failure to find any snail shells with breakages characteristic of rat predation suggests that kiore may not have established on the island until the early 19th century. The other smaller species of landsnail (Phrixgnathus paralaomiformis) probably became extinct in the late 19th or early 20th century as a result of habitat disturbance from fires and cattle. (author). 56 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs

  12. Review of islanding detection methods for distributed generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Zhe; Mahat, Pukar; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of power system islanding and islanding detection techniques. Islanding detection techniques, for a distribution system with distributed generation (DG), can broadly be divided into remote and local techniques. A remote islanding detection technique is associated...

  13. HYDROGEOLOGICAL RELATIONS ON KARSTIFIED ISLANDS - VIS ISLAND CASE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Terzić

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available An approach to the hydrogeological investigations on Adriatic islands is presented on the Island of Vis case study. Infiltration, accumulation and discharge of the groundwater occur in karstified rock mass. Hydrogeological relations are mostly a consequence of the geological setting, because of the complete hydrogeologic barrier in Komiža bay, and relative barrier in the area of karst poljes. Significant research was performed in the 1999 – 2000 period aimed of better understanding of hydrogeological relations. These investigations, as well as reinterpretation of some previously known data, included structural geology, hydrogeology, hydrology and hydrochemistry. Approximate rock mass hydraulic conductivity calculation is also shown, as well as level of its usability in such terrain. Based on all these methods, it is possible to conclude that on the Island of Vis there is no saline water present underneath the entire island. There is only a saline water wedge which is formed on the top of relatively impermeable base rock, some few tens of meters under recent sea level. With such a model, and taking in account the hydrological balance, it is possible to conclude that there is possibility of higher amount of groundwater exploitation then it is today (the paper is published in Croatian.

  14. Obesity and Native Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Population Profiles > Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander > Obesity Obesity and Native Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders Native Hawaiians/Pacific ... youthonline . [Accessed 08/18/2017] HEALTH IMPACT OF OBESITY People who are overweight are more likely to ...

  15. Submarine physiography off Lakshadweep Islands, Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chauhan, O.S; Chaubey, A

    Analysis of echosoundings, side scan sonar and shallow seismic data, supplementEd. by 152 sediment samples, collected along 150 km around Lakshadweep Islands, Arabian Sea, revealed that the islands have a very narrow shelf, and an abrupt, shelf...

  16. Benthic Mapping in Long Island Sound

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — QTCView is used with an incorporated depthfinder to create a sonar map of the bottom to the west of the Charles Island, in Long Island Sound in Connecticut waters....

  17. Dredged Material Management in Long Island Sound

    Science.gov (United States)

    Information on Western and Central Long Island Sound Dredged Material Disposal Sites including the Dredged Material Management Plan and Regional Dredging Team. Information regarding the Eastern Long Island Sound Selected Site including public meetings.

  18. Bartolome Island, Galapagos Stable Oxygen Calibration Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Galapagos Coral Stable Oxygen Calibration Data. Sites: Bartolome Island: 0 deg, 17'S, 90 deg 33' W. Champion Island: 1 deg, 15'S, 90 deg, 05' W. Urvina Bay (Isabela...

  19. Asthma and Native Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Population Profiles > Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander > Asthma Asthma and Native Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders National data for ... very limited. While all of the causes of asthma remain unclear, children exposed to secondhand tobacco smoke ...

  20. Immunizations and Asians and Pacific Islanders

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... and Data > Minority Population Profiles > Asian American > Immunizations Immunizations and Asians and Pacific Islanders Asian/Pacific Islander ... 35 months reached the Healthy People goal for immunizations for hepatitis B, MMR (measles-mumps-rubella), polio ...

  1. Human brain lesion-deficit inference remapped.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mah, Yee-Haur; Husain, Masud; Rees, Geraint; Nachev, Parashkev

    2014-09-01

    Our knowledge of the anatomical organization of the human brain in health and disease draws heavily on the study of patients with focal brain lesions. Historically the first method of mapping brain function, it is still potentially the most powerful, establishing the necessity of any putative neural substrate for a given function or deficit. Great inferential power, however, carries a crucial vulnerability: without stronger alternatives any consistent error cannot be easily detected. A hitherto unexamined source of such error is the structure of the high-dimensional distribution of patterns of focal damage, especially in ischaemic injury-the commonest aetiology in lesion-deficit studies-where the anatomy is naturally shaped by the architecture of the vascular tree. This distribution is so complex that analysis of lesion data sets of conventional size cannot illuminate its structure, leaving us in the dark about the presence or absence of such error. To examine this crucial question we assembled the largest known set of focal brain lesions (n = 581), derived from unselected patients with acute ischaemic injury (mean age = 62.3 years, standard deviation = 17.8, male:female ratio = 0.547), visualized with diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging, and processed with validated automated lesion segmentation routines. High-dimensional analysis of this data revealed a hidden bias within the multivariate patterns of damage that will consistently distort lesion-deficit maps, displacing inferred critical regions from their true locations, in a manner opaque to replication. Quantifying the size of this mislocalization demonstrates that past lesion-deficit relationships estimated with conventional inferential methodology are likely to be significantly displaced, by a magnitude dependent on the unknown underlying lesion-deficit relationship itself. Past studies therefore cannot be retrospectively corrected, except by new knowledge that would render them redundant

  2. Airborne dust transport to the eastern Pacific Ocean off southern California: Evidence from San Clemente Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhs, D.R.; Budahn, J.; Reheis, M.; Beann, J.; Skipp, G.; Fisher, E.

    2007-01-01

    Islands are natural dust traps, and San Clemente Island, California, is a good example. Soils on marine terraces cut into Miocene andesite on this island are clay-rich Vertisols or Alfisols with vertic properties. These soils are overlain by silt-rich mantles, 5-20 cm thick, that contrast sharply with the underlying clay-rich subsoils. The silt mantles have a mineralogy that is distinct from the island bedrock. Silt mantles are rich in quartz, which is rare in the island andesite. The clay fraction of the silt mantles is dominated by mica, also absent from local andesite, and contrasts with the subsoils, dominated by smectite. Ternary plots of immobile trace elements (Sc-Th-La and Ta-Nd-Cr) show that the island andesite has a composition intermediate between average upper continental crust and average oceanic crust. In contrast, the silt and, to a lesser extent, clay fractions of the silt mantles have compositions closer to average upper continental crust. The silt mantles have particle size distributions similar to loess and Mojave Desert dust, but are coarser than long-range-transported Asian dust. We infer from these observations that the silt mantles are derived from airborne dust from the North American mainland, probably river valleys in the coastal mountains of southern California and/or the Mojave Desert. Although average winds are from the northwest in coastal California, easterly winds occur numerous times of the year when "Santa Ana" conditions prevail, caused by a high-pressure cell centered over the Great Basin. Examination of satellite imagery shows that easterly Santa Ana winds carry abundant dust to the eastern Pacific Ocean and the California Channel Islands. Airborne dust from mainland North America may be an important component of the offshore sediment budget in the easternmost Pacific Ocean, a finding of potential biogeochemical and climatic significance.

  3. 33 CFR 80.717 - Tybee Island, GA to St. Simons Island, GA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Island. (j) An east-west line from the southernmost extremity of Sea Island across Goulds Inlet to St... Tybee Island 255° true across Tybee Inlet to the shore of Little Tybee Island south of the entrance to... shoreline across Cabretta Inlet. (g) A north-south line (longitude 81°16.9′ W.) drawn from the south...

  4. Tuppiap Qeqertaa (Tobias Island): a newly discovered island off northeast Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bennike, O.; Mikkelsen, N.; Forsberg, René

    2006-01-01

    The small island of Tuppiap Qeqertaa, formerly known as Tobias circle divide or Tobias Island, is situated 80 km off the northeast Greenland coast. The island was discovered in 1993 and is approximately 2 km long and 1.5 km wide. Most of the island is covered by an ice cap that rises to 35 in abo...

  5. Energy Transition Initiative: Island Energy Snapshot - U.S. Virgin Islands (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-03-01

    This profile provides a snapshot of the energy landscape of the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) - St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. The Virgin Islands archipelago makes up the northern portion of the Lesser Antilles and the western island group of the Leeward Islands, forming the border between the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea.

  6. The geology of the Falkland Islands

    OpenAIRE

    Aldiss, D.T.; Edwards, E.J.

    1999-01-01

    This report is complementary to the 1:250 000 scale geological map of the Falkland Islands compiled in 1998. The report and map are products of the Falkland Islands Geological Mapping Project (1996-1998). Geological observation and research in the Islands date from 1764. The Islands were visited during two pioneering scientific cruises in the 19th century. Subsequently, many scientists visited en route to the Antarctic or Patagonia. Geological affinities to other parts of the sout...

  7. Meta-learning framework applied in bioinformatics inference system design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arredondo, Tomás; Ormazábal, Wladimir

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes a meta-learner inference system development framework which is applied and tested in the implementation of bioinformatic inference systems. These inference systems are used for the systematic classification of the best candidates for inclusion in bacterial metabolic pathway maps. This meta-learner-based approach utilises a workflow where the user provides feedback with final classification decisions which are stored in conjunction with analysed genetic sequences for periodic inference system training. The inference systems were trained and tested with three different data sets related to the bacterial degradation of aromatic compounds. The analysis of the meta-learner-based framework involved contrasting several different optimisation methods with various different parameters. The obtained inference systems were also contrasted with other standard classification methods with accurate prediction capabilities observed.

  8. Active Inference, homeostatic regulation and adaptive behavioural control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pezzulo, Giovanni; Rigoli, Francesco; Friston, Karl

    2015-11-01

    We review a theory of homeostatic regulation and adaptive behavioural control within the Active Inference framework. Our aim is to connect two research streams that are usually considered independently; namely, Active Inference and associative learning theories of animal behaviour. The former uses a probabilistic (Bayesian) formulation of perception and action, while the latter calls on multiple (Pavlovian, habitual, goal-directed) processes for homeostatic and behavioural control. We offer a synthesis these classical processes and cast them as successive hierarchical contextualisations of sensorimotor constructs, using the generative models that underpin Active Inference. This dissolves any apparent mechanistic distinction between the optimization processes that mediate classical control or learning. Furthermore, we generalize the scope of Active Inference by emphasizing interoceptive inference and homeostatic regulation. The ensuing homeostatic (or allostatic) perspective provides an intuitive explanation for how priors act as drives or goals to enslave action, and emphasises the embodied nature of inference. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  9. Bayesian inference data evaluation and decisions

    CERN Document Server

    Harney, Hanns Ludwig

    2016-01-01

    This new edition offers a comprehensive introduction to the analysis of data using Bayes rule. It generalizes Gaussian error intervals to situations in which the data follow distributions other than Gaussian. This is particularly useful when the observed parameter is barely above the background or the histogram of multiparametric data contains many empty bins, so that the determination of the validity of a theory cannot be based on the chi-squared-criterion. In addition to the solutions of practical problems, this approach provides an epistemic insight: the logic of quantum mechanics is obtained as the logic of unbiased inference from counting data. New sections feature factorizing parameters, commuting parameters, observables in quantum mechanics, the art of fitting with coherent and with incoherent alternatives and fitting with multinomial distribution. Additional problems and examples help deepen the knowledge. Requiring no knowledge of quantum mechanics, the book is written on introductory level, with man...

  10. Bayesian inference and updating of reliability data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sabri, Z.A.; Cullingford, M.C.; David, H.T.; Husseiny, A.A.

    1980-01-01

    A Bayes methodology for inference of reliability values using available but scarce current data is discussed. The method can be used to update failure rates as more information becomes available from field experience, assuming that the performance of a given component (or system) exhibits a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Bayes' theorem is used to summarize the historical evidence and current component data in the form of a posterior distribution suitable for prediction and for smoothing or interpolation. An example is given. It may be appropriate to apply the methodology developed here to human error data, in which case the exponential model might be used to describe the learning behavior of the operator or maintenance crew personnel

  11. Automatic inference of indexing rules for MEDLINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shooshan Sonya E

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: Indexing is a crucial step in any information retrieval system. In MEDLINE, a widely used database of the biomedical literature, the indexing process involves the selection of Medical Subject Headings in order to describe the subject matter of articles. The need for automatic tools to assist MEDLINE indexers in this task is growing with the increasing number of publications being added to MEDLINE. Methods: In this paper, we describe the use and the customization of Inductive Logic Programming (ILP to infer indexing rules that may be used to produce automatic indexing recommendations for MEDLINE indexers. Results: Our results show that this original ILP-based approach outperforms manual rules when they exist. In addition, the use of ILP rules also improves the overall performance of the Medical Text Indexer (MTI, a system producing automatic indexing recommendations for MEDLINE. Conclusion: We expect the sets of ILP rules obtained in this experiment to be integrated into MTI.

  12. Progression inference for somatic mutations in cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leif E. Peterson

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Computational methods were employed to determine progression inference of genomic alterations in commonly occurring cancers. Using cross-sectional TCGA data, we computed evolutionary trajectories involving selectivity relationships among pairs of gene-specific genomic alterations such as somatic mutations, deletions, amplifications, downregulation, and upregulation among the top 20 driver genes associated with each cancer. Results indicate that the majority of hierarchies involved TP53, PIK3CA, ERBB2, APC, KRAS, EGFR, IDH1, VHL, etc. Research into the order and accumulation of genomic alterations among cancer driver genes will ever-increase as the costs of nextgen sequencing subside, and personalized/precision medicine incorporates whole-genome scans into the diagnosis and treatment of cancer. Keywords: Oncology, Cancer research, Genetics, Computational biology

  13. Inferring Phylogenetic Networks from Gene Order Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey Anatolievich Morozov

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Existing algorithms allow us to infer phylogenetic networks from sequences (DNA, protein or binary, sets of trees, and distance matrices, but there are no methods to build them using the gene order data as an input. Here we describe several methods to build split networks from the gene order data, perform simulation studies, and use our methods for analyzing and interpreting different real gene order datasets. All proposed methods are based on intermediate data, which can be generated from genome structures under study and used as an input for network construction algorithms. Three intermediates are used: set of jackknife trees, distance matrix, and binary encoding. According to simulations and case studies, the best intermediates are jackknife trees and distance matrix (when used with Neighbor-Net algorithm. Binary encoding can also be useful, but only when the methods mentioned above cannot be used.

  14. Supplier Selection Using Fuzzy Inference System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    hamidreza kadhodazadeh

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Suppliers are one of the most vital parts of supply chain whose operation has significant indirect effect on customer satisfaction. Since customer's expectations from organization are different, organizations should consider different standards, respectively. There are many researches in this field using different standards and methods in recent years. The purpose of this study is to propose an approach for choosing a supplier in a food manufacturing company considering cost, quality, service, type of relationship and structure standards of the supplier organization. To evaluate supplier according to the above standards, the fuzzy inference system has been used. Input data of this system includes supplier's score in any standard that is achieved by AHP approach and the output is final score of each supplier. Finally, a supplier has been selected that although is not the best in price and quality, has achieved good score in all of the standards.

  15. MARINE BOTTOM COMMUNITIES OF BLOCK ISLAND WATERS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The sea has long been an integral part of Block Island's natural history, beginning when the rising sea surrounded the high spot on a Pleistocene terminal moraine that became Block Island. The southern New England continental shelf, which lies around Block Island, and the Great S...

  16. Past, Present, Future Erosion at Locke Island

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjornstad, Bruce N.

    2006-08-08

    This report describes and documents the erosion that has occurred along the northeast side of Locke Island over the last 10 to 20 years. The principal cause of this erosion is the massive Locke Island landslide complex opposite the Columbia River along the White Bluffs, which constricts the flow of the river and deflects the river's thalweg southward against the island.

  17. Ecology and Evolution: Islands of Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benz, Richard

    This book was designed for middle and junior high school science classes and focuses on island biogeography, ecology, and evolution. Sections include: (1) "Galapagos: Frame of Reference"; (2) "Ecology and Islands"; and (3) "Evolution." Nineteen standards-based activities use the Galapagos Islands as a running theme…

  18. seal Arctocephaius tropicaiis at Gough Island

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population increase in the Amsterdam Island fur seal Arctocephaius tropicaiis at Gough Island. M.N. Bester. Mammal Research Institute, University of Pretoria, Pretoria. Population size of Arctocephalus tropicalis on Gough Island was determined by direct censuses of parts of the coast duro ing the summers of 1974 - 1976 ...

  19. The Limacidae of the Canary Islands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Regteren Altena, van C.O.

    1950-01-01

    CONTENTS Introduction............... 3 Systematic survey of the Limacidae of the central and western Canary Islands 5 Biogeographical notes on the Limacidae of the Canary Islands . . . . 21 Alphabetical list of the persons who collected or observed Limacidae in the Canary Islands.............. 31

  20. Gene expression inference with deep learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yifei; Li, Yi; Narayan, Rajiv; Subramanian, Aravind; Xie, Xiaohui

    2016-06-15

    Large-scale gene expression profiling has been widely used to characterize cellular states in response to various disease conditions, genetic perturbations, etc. Although the cost of whole-genome expression profiles has been dropping steadily, generating a compendium of expression profiling over thousands of samples is still very expensive. Recognizing that gene expressions are often highly correlated, researchers from the NIH LINCS program have developed a cost-effective strategy of profiling only ∼1000 carefully selected landmark genes and relying on computational methods to infer the expression of remaining target genes. However, the computational approach adopted by the LINCS program is currently based on linear regression (LR), limiting its accuracy since it does not capture complex nonlinear relationship between expressions of genes. We present a deep learning method (abbreviated as D-GEX) to infer the expression of target genes from the expression of landmark genes. We used the microarray-based Gene Expression Omnibus dataset, consisting of 111K expression profiles, to train our model and compare its performance to those from other methods. In terms of mean absolute error averaged across all genes, deep learning significantly outperforms LR with 15.33% relative improvement. A gene-wise comparative analysis shows that deep learning achieves lower error than LR in 99.97% of the target genes. We also tested the performance of our learned model on an independent RNA-Seq-based GTEx dataset, which consists of 2921 expression profiles. Deep learning still outperforms LR with 6.57% relative improvement, and achieves lower error in 81.31% of the target genes. D-GEX is available at https://github.com/uci-cbcl/D-GEX CONTACT: xhx@ics.uci.edu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Systematic parameter inference in stochastic mesoscopic modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lei, Huan; Yang, Xiu [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352 (United States); Li, Zhen [Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States); Karniadakis, George Em, E-mail: george_karniadakis@brown.edu [Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States)

    2017-02-01

    We propose a method to efficiently determine the optimal coarse-grained force field in mesoscopic stochastic simulations of Newtonian fluid and polymer melt systems modeled by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) and energy conserving dissipative particle dynamics (eDPD). The response surfaces of various target properties (viscosity, diffusivity, pressure, etc.) with respect to model parameters are constructed based on the generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion using simulation results on sampling points (e.g., individual parameter sets). To alleviate the computational cost to evaluate the target properties, we employ the compressive sensing method to compute the coefficients of the dominant gPC terms given the prior knowledge that the coefficients are “sparse”. The proposed method shows comparable accuracy with the standard probabilistic collocation method (PCM) while it imposes a much weaker restriction on the number of the simulation samples especially for systems with high dimensional parametric space. Fully access to the response surfaces within the confidence range enables us to infer the optimal force parameters given the desirable values of target properties at the macroscopic scale. Moreover, it enables us to investigate the intrinsic relationship between the model parameters, identify possible degeneracies in the parameter space, and optimize the model by eliminating model redundancies. The proposed method provides an efficient alternative approach for constructing mesoscopic models by inferring model parameters to recover target properties of the physics systems (e.g., from experimental measurements), where those force field parameters and formulation cannot be derived from the microscopic level in a straight forward way.

  2. Stepping-stones to the Edge: Artistic Expressions of Islandness in an Ocean of Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurie Brinklow

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Since the earliest of times, islands have captured the artistic imagination—and, often, for the artist who finds his or her muse in being ‘islanded’, the smaller the island the better. Archipelagos offer an ideal setting for artists who take their inspiration from place: on small islands off islands they can experience an intensity of island living they might not otherwise have on a main island: boundedness and connection, isolation and community. This paper examines expressions of islandness by artists who live on islands off islands that are poles apart—‘archipelagos’ of the Canadian North Atlantic and the Great Southern Ocean. It draws upon interviews with those artists and writers to consider the nature of humans’ attachment and attraction to islands, exploring through the lens of phenomenology what Stratford et al. call the “entanglement between and among islands”.

  3. State-Space Inference and Learning with Gaussian Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Turner, R; Deisenroth, MP; Rasmussen, CE

    2010-01-01

    18.10.13 KB. Ok to add author version to spiral, authors hold copyright. State-space inference and learning with Gaussian processes (GPs) is an unsolved problem. We propose a new, general methodology for inference and learning in nonlinear state-space models that are described probabilistically by non-parametric GP models. We apply the expectation maximization algorithm to iterate between inference in the latent state-space and learning the parameters of the underlying GP dynamics model. C...

  4. Extinction debt on oceanic islands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Triantis, Kostas A.; Borges, Paulo A. V.; Ladle, Richard J.

    2010-01-01

    the magnitude of such future extinction events has been hampered by potentially inaccurate assumptions about the slope of species-area relationships, which are habitat- and taxon-specific. We overcome this challenge by applying a method that uses the historical sequence of deforestation in the Azorean Islands...

  5. Destination: Marshall Islands. Video Guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legowski, Margaret

    This video guide was developed by the Peace Corps' Office of World Wise Schools. Activities that the guide describes are for use in a 3- to 5-day unit on one of the nations of Oceania, the Republic of the Marshall Islands. The activities are designed to provide students with opportunities to: (1) compare and contrast Marshallese and U.S. culture;…

  6. Modeling the distribution of Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus on offshore islands in the Falkland Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A. Tabak

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Non-native rats (Rattus spp. threaten native island species worldwide. Efforts to eradicate them from islands have increased in frequency and become more ambitious in recent years. However, the long-term success of some eradication efforts has been compromised by the ability of rats, particularly Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus which are good swimmers, to recolonize islands following eradications. In the Falkland Islands, an archipelago in the South Atlantic Ocean, the distance of 250 m between islands (once suggested as the minimum separation distance for an effective barrier to recolonization has shown to be insufficient. Norway rats are present on about half of the 503 islands in the Falklands. Bird diversity is lower on islands with rats and two vulnerable passerine species, Troglodytes cobbi (the only endemic Falkland Islands passerine and Cinclodes antarcticus, have greatly reduced abundances and/or are absent on islands with rats. We used logistic regression models to investigate the potential factors that may determine the presence of Norway rats on 158 islands in the Falkland Islands. Our models included island area, distance to the nearest rat-infested island, island location, and the history of island use by humans as driving variables. Models best supported by data included only distance to the nearest potential source of rats and island area, but the relative magnitude of the effect of distance and area on the presence of rats varied depending on whether islands were in the eastern or western sector of the archipelago. The human use of an island was not a significant parameter in any models. A very large fraction (72% of islands within 500 m of the nearest potential rat source had rats, but 97% of islands farther than 1,000 m away from potential rat sources were free of rats.

  7. Sociodemographic Factors Influencing Island Food Consumption in the Pacific Islander Health Study

    OpenAIRE

    Baumhofer, Nicole Kau'i

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation explores the relationships between island food consumption, sociodemographic variables, and cardiovascular risk using data from the Pacific Islander Health Study (PIHS). Chapter 1 explores the associations between self-reported level of island food consumption and key covariates. Island food consumption was modeled using Poisson regression and adjusted for demographic, socioeconomic, and cultural characteristics. Increased Pacific Island cultural affinity was the strongest p...

  8. At the end of the line: independent overwater colonizations of the Solomon Islands by a hyperdiverse trans-Wallacean lizard lineage (Cyrtodactylus: Gekkota: Squamata)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Paul M.; Travers, Scott L; Richmond, Jonathan Q.; Pikacha, Patrick; Fisher, Robert N.

    2018-01-01

    The islands of East Melanesia have generated key insights into speciation processes and community assembly. However, when and how these islands began to form, emerge and accumulate endemic taxa remains poorly understood. Here, we show that two divergent lineages within the world’s most diverse genus of geckos (Cyrtodactylus) occur in the Solomon Islands. One large-bodied species is nested within a radiation from far eastern New Guinea, with inferred colonization, spread and diversification since the late Miocene. In contrast, a newly sampled and relatively small species with a restricted distribution on Guadalcanal Island is a relict that diverged from extant congeners around the early to mid-Miocene. Similar Miocene divergences from extralimital relatives have been inferred for other endemic bird, bat and lizard lineages in East Melanesia. In contrast, across all lineages (including divergent relictual lineages), there is little evidence for endemic in situ diversification within East Melanesia predating the Pliocene (especially in the Solomon Islands). While some East Melanesian endemic lineages may have origins on progenitor islands during the Miocene or even earlier, current evidence suggests the in situ diversification and assembly of extant biological communities commenced around the end of the Miocene.

  9. Probabilistic logic networks a comprehensive framework for uncertain inference

    CERN Document Server

    Goertzel, Ben; Goertzel, Izabela Freire; Heljakka, Ari

    2008-01-01

    This comprehensive book describes Probabilistic Logic Networks (PLN), a novel conceptual, mathematical and computational approach to uncertain inference. A broad scope of reasoning types are considered.

  10. Parametric statistical inference basic theory and modern approaches

    CERN Document Server

    Zacks, Shelemyahu; Tsokos, C P

    1981-01-01

    Parametric Statistical Inference: Basic Theory and Modern Approaches presents the developments and modern trends in statistical inference to students who do not have advanced mathematical and statistical preparation. The topics discussed in the book are basic and common to many fields of statistical inference and thus serve as a jumping board for in-depth study. The book is organized into eight chapters. Chapter 1 provides an overview of how the theory of statistical inference is presented in subsequent chapters. Chapter 2 briefly discusses statistical distributions and their properties. Chapt

  11. Returning from the Horizon: Introducing Urban Island Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xavier Barceló Pinya

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Island studies tends to focus on peripheral, isolated, and marginal aspects of island communities, while urban studies has showed scant awareness of islandness: Although many people research cities on islands, there is little tradition of researching island cities or urban archipelagos per se. Island cities (densely populated small islands and population centres of larger islands and archipelagos nevertheless play import cultural, economic, political, and environmental roles on local, regional, and global scales. Many major cities and ports have developed on small islands, and even villages can fulfil important urban functions on lightly populated islands. Island concepts are also deployed to metaphorically describe developments in urban space. The journal Urban Island Studies explores island and urban processes around the world, taking an island approach to urban research and an urban approach to island research.

  12. Human responses to Middle Holocene climate change on California's Channel Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennett, Douglas J.; Kennett, James P.; Erlandson, Jon M.; Cannariato, Kevin G.

    2007-02-01

    High-resolution archaeological and paleoenvironmental records from California's Channel Islands provide a unique opportunity to examine potential relationships between climatically induced environmental changes and prehistoric human behavioral responses. Available climate records in western North America (7-3.8 ka) indicate a severe dry interval between 6.3 and 4.8 ka embedded within a generally warm and dry Middle Holocene. Very dry conditions in western North America between 6.3 and 4.8 ka correlate with cold to moderate sea-surface temperatures (SST) along the southern California Coast evident in Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Core 893A/B (Santa Barbara Basin). An episode of inferred high marine productivity between 6.3 and 5.8 ka corresponds with the coldest estimated SSTs of the Middle Holocene, otherwise marked by warm/low productivity marine conditions (7.5-3.8 ka). The impact of this severe aridity on humans was different between the northern and southern Channel Islands, apparently related to degree of island isolation, size and productivity of islands relative to population, fresh water availability, and on-going social relationships between island and continental populations. Northern Channel Islanders seem to have been largely unaffected by this severe arid phase. In contrast, cultural changes on the southern Channel Islands were likely influenced by the climatically induced environmental changes. We suggest that productive marine conditions coupled with a dry terrestrial climate between 6.3 and 5.8 ka stimulated early village development and intensified fishing on the more remote southern islands. Contact with people on the adjacent southern California Coast increased during this time with increased participation in a down-the-line trade network extending into the western Great Basin and central Oregon. Genetic similarities between Middle Holocene burial populations on the southern Channel Islands and modern California Uto-Aztecan populations suggest

  13. Shape and coarsening dynamics of strained islands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schifani, Guido; Frisch, Thomas; Argentina, Mederic

    2016-01-01

    and numerically the formation of an equilibrium island using a two-dimensional continuous model. We have found that these equilibrium island-like solutions have a maximum height h_{0} and they sit on top of a flat wetting layer with a thickness h_{w}. We then consider two islands, and we report that they undergo...... and leads to the shrinkage of the smallest island. Once its height becomes smaller than a minimal equilibrium height h_{0}^{*}, its mass spreads over the entire system. Our results pave the way for a future analysis of coarsening of an assembly of islands....

  14. Genomic islands predict functional adaptation in marine actinobacteria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Penn, Kevin; Jenkins, Caroline; Nett, Markus; Udwary, Daniel; Gontang, Erin; McGlinchey, Ryan; Foster, Brian; Lapidus, Alla; Podell, Sheila; Allen, Eric; Moore, Bradley; Jensen, Paul

    2009-04-01

    Linking functional traits to bacterial phylogeny remains a fundamental but elusive goal of microbial ecology 1. Without this information, it becomes impossible to resolve meaningful units of diversity and the mechanisms by which bacteria interact with each other and adapt to environmental change. Ecological adaptations among bacterial populations have been linked to genomic islands, strain-specific regions of DNA that house functionally adaptive traits 2. In the case of environmental bacteria, these traits are largely inferred from bioinformatic or gene expression analyses 2, thus leaving few examples in which the functions of island genes have been experimentally characterized. Here we report the complete genome sequences of Salinispora tropica and S. arenicola, the first cultured, obligate marine Actinobacteria 3. These two species inhabit benthic marine environments and dedicate 8-10percent of their genomes to the biosynthesis of secondary metabolites. Despite a close phylogenetic relationship, 25 of 37 secondary metabolic pathways are species-specific and located within 21 genomic islands, thus providing new evidence linking secondary metabolism to ecological adaptation. Species-specific differences are also observed in CRISPR sequences, suggesting that variations in phage immunity provide fitness advantages that contribute to the cosmopolitan distribution of S. arenicola 4. The two Salinispora genomes have evolved by complex processes that include the duplication and acquisition of secondary metabolite genes, the products of which provide immediate opportunities for molecular diversification and ecological adaptation. Evidence that secondary metabolic pathways are exchanged by Horizontal Gene Transfer (HGT) yet are fixed among globally distributed populations 5 supports a functional role for their products and suggests that pathway acquisition represents a previously unrecognized force driving bacterial diversification

  15. The Probabilistic Convolution Tree: Efficient Exact Bayesian Inference for Faster LC-MS/MS Protein Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serang, Oliver

    2014-01-01

    Exact Bayesian inference can sometimes be performed efficiently for special cases where a function has commutative and associative symmetry of its inputs (called “causal independence”). For this reason, it is desirable to exploit such symmetry on big data sets. Here we present a method to exploit a general form of this symmetry on probabilistic adder nodes by transforming those probabilistic adder nodes into a probabilistic convolution tree with which dynamic programming computes exact probabilities. A substantial speedup is demonstrated using an illustration example that can arise when identifying splice forms with bottom-up mass spectrometry-based proteomics. On this example, even state-of-the-art exact inference algorithms require a runtime more than exponential in the number of splice forms considered. By using the probabilistic convolution tree, we reduce the runtime to and the space to where is the number of variables joined by an additive or cardinal operator. This approach, which can also be used with junction tree inference, is applicable to graphs with arbitrary dependency on counting variables or cardinalities and can be used on diverse problems and fields like forward error correcting codes, elemental decomposition, and spectral demixing. The approach also trivially generalizes to multiple dimensions. PMID:24626234

  16. Making inference from wildlife collision data: inferring predator absence from prey strikes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Caley

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Wildlife collision data are ubiquitous, though challenging for making ecological inference due to typically irreducible uncertainty relating to the sampling process. We illustrate a new approach that is useful for generating inference from predator data arising from wildlife collisions. By simply conditioning on a second prey species sampled via the same collision process, and by using a biologically realistic numerical response functions, we can produce a coherent numerical response relationship between predator and prey. This relationship can then be used to make inference on the population size of the predator species, including the probability of extinction. The statistical conditioning enables us to account for unmeasured variation in factors influencing the runway strike incidence for individual airports and to enable valid comparisons. A practical application of the approach for testing hypotheses about the distribution and abundance of a predator species is illustrated using the hypothesized red fox incursion into Tasmania, Australia. We estimate that conditional on the numerical response between fox and lagomorph runway strikes on mainland Australia, the predictive probability of observing no runway strikes of foxes in Tasmania after observing 15 lagomorph strikes is 0.001. We conclude there is enough evidence to safely reject the null hypothesis that there is a widespread red fox population in Tasmania at a population density consistent with prey availability. The method is novel and has potential wider application.

  17. Making inference from wildlife collision data: inferring predator absence from prey strikes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caley, Peter; Hosack, Geoffrey R; Barry, Simon C

    2017-01-01

    Wildlife collision data are ubiquitous, though challenging for making ecological inference due to typically irreducible uncertainty relating to the sampling process. We illustrate a new approach that is useful for generating inference from predator data arising from wildlife collisions. By simply conditioning on a second prey species sampled via the same collision process, and by using a biologically realistic numerical response functions, we can produce a coherent numerical response relationship between predator and prey. This relationship can then be used to make inference on the population size of the predator species, including the probability of extinction. The statistical conditioning enables us to account for unmeasured variation in factors influencing the runway strike incidence for individual airports and to enable valid comparisons. A practical application of the approach for testing hypotheses about the distribution and abundance of a predator species is illustrated using the hypothesized red fox incursion into Tasmania, Australia. We estimate that conditional on the numerical response between fox and lagomorph runway strikes on mainland Australia, the predictive probability of observing no runway strikes of foxes in Tasmania after observing 15 lagomorph strikes is 0.001. We conclude there is enough evidence to safely reject the null hypothesis that there is a widespread red fox population in Tasmania at a population density consistent with prey availability. The method is novel and has potential wider application.

  18. Making Inferences in Adulthood: Falling Leaves Mean It's Fall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zandi, Taher; Gregory, Monica E.

    1988-01-01

    Assessed age differences in making inferences from prose. Older adults correctly answered mean of 10 questions related to implicit information and 8 related to explicit information. Young adults answered mean of 7 implicit and 12 explicit information questions. In spite of poorer recall of factual details, older subjects made inferences to greater…

  19. Statistical Inference and Patterns of Inequality in the Global North

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Timothy Patrick

    2006-01-01

    Cross-national inequality trends have historically been a crucial field of inquiry across the social sciences, and new methodological techniques of statistical inference have recently improved the ability to analyze these trends over time. This paper applies Monte Carlo, bootstrap inference methods to the income surveys of the Luxembourg Income…

  20. Causal Effect Inference with Deep Latent-Variable Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Louizos, C; Shalit, U.; Mooij, J.; Sontag, D.; Zemel, R.; Welling, M.

    2017-01-01

    Learning individual-level causal effects from observational data, such as inferring the most effective medication for a specific patient, is a problem of growing importance for policy makers. The most important aspect of inferring causal effects from observational data is the handling of

  1. A Comparative Analysis of Fuzzy Inference Engines in Context of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Fuzzy inference engine has found successful applications in a wide variety of fields, such as automatic control, data classification, decision analysis, expert engines, time series prediction, robotics, pattern recognition, etc. This paper presents a comparative analysis of three fuzzy inference engines, max-product, max-min ...

  2. General Purpose Probabilistic Programming Platform with Effective Stochastic Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-04-01

    REFERENCES 74 LIST OF ACRONYMS 80 ii List of Figures Figure 1. The problem of inferring curves from data while simultaneously choosing the...bottom path) as the inverse problem to computer graphics (top path). ........ 18 Figure 18. An illustration of generative probabilistic graphics for 3D...Building these systems involves simultaneously developing mathematical models, inference algorithms and optimized software implementations. Small changes

  3. A Comparative Analysis of Fuzzy Inference Engines in Context of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF. O. E. OSUAGWU

    Fuzzy Inference engine is an important part of reasoning systems capable of extracting correct conclusions from ... is known as the inference, or rule definition portion, of fuzzy .... minimal set of decision rules based on input- ... The study uses Mamdani FIS model and. Sugeno FIS ... control of induction motor drive. [18] study.

  4. Deontic Introduction: A Theory of Inference from Is to Ought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elqayam, Shira; Thompson, Valerie A.; Wilkinson, Meredith R.; Evans, Jonathan St. B. T.; Over, David E.

    2015-01-01

    Humans have a unique ability to generate novel norms. Faced with the knowledge that there are hungry children in Somalia, we easily and naturally infer that we ought to donate to famine relief charities. Although a contentious and lively issue in metaethics, such inference from "is" to "ought" has not been systematically…

  5. Causal inference in survival analysis using pseudo-observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Per K; Syriopoulou, Elisavet; Parner, Erik T

    2017-01-01

    Causal inference for non-censored response variables, such as binary or quantitative outcomes, is often based on either (1) direct standardization ('G-formula') or (2) inverse probability of treatment assignment weights ('propensity score'). To do causal inference in survival analysis, one needs ...

  6. Description of a New Galapagos Giant Tortoise Species (Chelonoidis; Testudines: Testudinidae from Cerro Fatal on Santa Cruz Island.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikos Poulakakis

    Full Text Available The taxonomy of giant Galapagos tortoises (Chelonoidis spp. is currently based primarily on morphological characters and island of origin. Over the last decade, compelling genetic evidence has accumulated for multiple independent evolutionary lineages, spurring the need for taxonomic revision. On the island of Santa Cruz there is currently a single named species, C. porteri. Recent genetic and morphological studies have shown that, within this taxon, there are two evolutionarily and spatially distinct lineages on the western and eastern sectors of the island, known as the Reserva and Cerro Fatal populations, respectively. Analyses of DNA from natural populations and museum specimens, including the type specimen for C. porteri, confirm the genetic distinctiveness of these two lineages and support elevation of the Cerro Fatal tortoises to the rank of species. In this paper, we identify DNA characters that define this new species, and infer evolutionary relationships relative to other species of Galapagos tortoises.

  7. Bayesian inference of radiation belt loss timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camporeale, E.; Chandorkar, M.

    2017-12-01

    Electron fluxes in the Earth's radiation belts are routinely studied using the classical quasi-linear radial diffusion model. Although this simplified linear equation has proven to be an indispensable tool in understanding the dynamics of the radiation belt, it requires specification of quantities such as the diffusion coefficient and electron loss timescales that are never directly measured. Researchers have so far assumed a-priori parameterisations for radiation belt quantities and derived the best fit using satellite data. The state of the art in this domain lacks a coherent formulation of this problem in a probabilistic framework. We present some recent progress that we have made in performing Bayesian inference of radial diffusion parameters. We achieve this by making extensive use of the theory connecting Gaussian Processes and linear partial differential equations, and performing Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of radial diffusion parameters. These results are important for understanding the role and the propagation of uncertainties in radiation belt simulations and, eventually, for providing a probabilistic forecast of energetic electron fluxes in a Space Weather context.

  8. Scalable inference for stochastic block models

    KAUST Repository

    Peng, Chengbin

    2017-12-08

    Community detection in graphs is widely used in social and biological networks, and the stochastic block model is a powerful probabilistic tool for describing graphs with community structures. However, in the era of "big data," traditional inference algorithms for such a model are increasingly limited due to their high time complexity and poor scalability. In this paper, we propose a multi-stage maximum likelihood approach to recover the latent parameters of the stochastic block model, in time linear with respect to the number of edges. We also propose a parallel algorithm based on message passing. Our algorithm can overlap communication and computation, providing speedup without compromising accuracy as the number of processors grows. For example, to process a real-world graph with about 1.3 million nodes and 10 million edges, our algorithm requires about 6 seconds on 64 cores of a contemporary commodity Linux cluster. Experiments demonstrate that the algorithm can produce high quality results on both benchmark and real-world graphs. An example of finding more meaningful communities is illustrated consequently in comparison with a popular modularity maximization algorithm.

  9. Probabilistic learning and inference in schizophrenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Averbeck, Bruno B.; Evans, Simon; Chouhan, Viraj; Bristow, Eleanor; Shergill, Sukhwinder S.

    2010-01-01

    Patients with schizophrenia make decisions on the basis of less evidence when required to collect information to make an inference, a behavior often called jumping to conclusions. The underlying basis for this behaviour remains controversial. We examined the cognitive processes underpinning this finding by testing subjects on the beads task, which has been used previously to elicit jumping to conclusions behaviour, and a stochastic sequence learning task, with a similar decision theoretic structure. During the sequence learning task, subjects had to learn a sequence of button presses, while receiving noisy feedback on their choices. We fit a Bayesian decision making model to the sequence task and compared model parameters to the choice behavior in the beads task in both patients and healthy subjects. We found that patients did show a jumping to conclusions style; and those who picked early in the beads task tended to learn less from positive feedback in the sequence task. This favours the likelihood of patients selecting early because they have a low threshold for making decisions, and that they make choices on the basis of relatively little evidence. PMID:20810252

  10. Heuristics as Bayesian inference under extreme priors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parpart, Paula; Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

    2018-05-01

    Simple heuristics are often regarded as tractable decision strategies because they ignore a great deal of information in the input data. One puzzle is why heuristics can outperform full-information models, such as linear regression, which make full use of the available information. These "less-is-more" effects, in which a relatively simpler model outperforms a more complex model, are prevalent throughout cognitive science, and are frequently argued to demonstrate an inherent advantage of simplifying computation or ignoring information. In contrast, we show at the computational level (where algorithmic restrictions are set aside) that it is never optimal to discard information. Through a formal Bayesian analysis, we prove that popular heuristics, such as tallying and take-the-best, are formally equivalent to Bayesian inference under the limit of infinitely strong priors. Varying the strength of the prior yields a continuum of Bayesian models with the heuristics at one end and ordinary regression at the other. Critically, intermediate models perform better across all our simulations, suggesting that down-weighting information with the appropriate prior is preferable to entirely ignoring it. Rather than because of their simplicity, our analyses suggest heuristics perform well because they implement strong priors that approximate the actual structure of the environment. We end by considering how new heuristics could be derived by infinitely strengthening the priors of other Bayesian models. These formal results have implications for work in psychology, machine learning and economics. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Aesthetic quality inference for online fashion shopping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ming; Allebach, Jan

    2014-03-01

    On-line fashion communities in which participants post photos of personal fashion items for viewing and possible purchase by others are becoming increasingly popular. Generally, these photos are taken by individuals who have no training in photography with low-cost mobile phone cameras. It is desired that photos of the products have high aesthetic quality to improve the users' online shopping experience. In this work, we design features for aesthetic quality inference in the context of online fashion shopping. Psychophysical experiments are conducted to construct a database of the photos' aesthetic evaluation, specifically for photos from an online fashion shopping website. We then extract both generic low-level features and high-level image attributes to represent the aesthetic quality. Using a support vector machine framework, we train a predictor of the aesthetic quality rating based on the feature vector. Experimental results validate the efficacy of our approach. Metadata such as the product type are also used to further improve the result.

  12. Information-Theoretic Inference of Common Ancestors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bastian Steudel

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available A directed acyclic graph (DAG partially represents the conditional independence structure among observations of a system if the local Markov condition holds, that is if every variable is independent of its non-descendants given its parents. In general, there is a whole class of DAGs that represents a given set of conditional independence relations. We are interested in properties of this class that can be derived from observations of a subsystem only. To this end, we prove an information-theoretic inequality that allows for the inference of common ancestors of observed parts in any DAG representing some unknown larger system. More explicitly, we show that a large amount of dependence in terms of mutual information among the observations implies the existence of a common ancestor that distributes this information. Within the causal interpretation of DAGs, our result can be seen as a quantitative extension of Reichenbach’s principle of common cause to more than two variables. Our conclusions are valid also for non-probabilistic observations, such as binary strings, since we state the proof for an axiomatized notion of “mutual information” that includes the stochastic as well as the algorithmic version.

  13. Probabilistic learning and inference in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Averbeck, Bruno B; Evans, Simon; Chouhan, Viraj; Bristow, Eleanor; Shergill, Sukhwinder S

    2011-04-01

    Patients with schizophrenia make decisions on the basis of less evidence when required to collect information to make an inference, a behavior often called jumping to conclusions. The underlying basis for this behavior remains controversial. We examined the cognitive processes underpinning this finding by testing subjects on the beads task, which has been used previously to elicit jumping to conclusions behavior, and a stochastic sequence learning task, with a similar decision theoretic structure. During the sequence learning task, subjects had to learn a sequence of button presses, while receiving a noisy feedback on their choices. We fit a Bayesian decision making model to the sequence task and compared model parameters to the choice behavior in the beads task in both patients and healthy subjects. We found that patients did show a jumping to conclusions style; and those who picked early in the beads task tended to learn less from positive feedback in the sequence task. This favours the likelihood of patients selecting early because they have a low threshold for making decisions, and that they make choices on the basis of relatively little evidence. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  14. Active Inference and Learning in the Cerebellum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, Karl; Herreros, Ivan

    2016-09-01

    This letter offers a computational account of Pavlovian conditioning in the cerebellum based on active inference and predictive coding. Using eyeblink conditioning as a canonical paradigm, we formulate a minimal generative model that can account for spontaneous blinking, startle responses, and (delay or trace) conditioning. We then establish the face validity of the model using simulated responses to unconditioned and conditioned stimuli to reproduce the sorts of behavior that are observed empirically. The scheme's anatomical validity is then addressed by associating variables in the predictive coding scheme with nuclei and neuronal populations to match the (extrinsic and intrinsic) connectivity of the cerebellar (eyeblink conditioning) system. Finally, we try to establish predictive validity by reproducing selective failures of delay conditioning, trace conditioning, and extinction using (simulated and reversible) focal lesions. Although rather metaphorical, the ensuing scheme can account for a remarkable range of anatomical and neurophysiological aspects of cerebellar circuitry-and the specificity of lesion-deficit mappings that have been established experimentally. From a computational perspective, this work shows how conditioning or learning can be formulated in terms of minimizing variational free energy (or maximizing Bayesian model evidence) using exactly the same principles that underlie predictive coding in perception.

  15. Inferring gene networks from discrete expression data

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, L.

    2013-07-18

    The modeling of gene networks from transcriptional expression data is an important tool in biomedical research to reveal signaling pathways and to identify treatment targets. Current gene network modeling is primarily based on the use of Gaussian graphical models applied to continuous data, which give a closedformmarginal likelihood. In this paper,we extend network modeling to discrete data, specifically data from serial analysis of gene expression, and RNA-sequencing experiments, both of which generate counts of mRNAtranscripts in cell samples.We propose a generalized linear model to fit the discrete gene expression data and assume that the log ratios of the mean expression levels follow a Gaussian distribution.We restrict the gene network structures to decomposable graphs and derive the graphs by selecting the covariance matrix of the Gaussian distribution with the hyper-inverse Wishart priors. Furthermore, we incorporate prior network models based on gene ontology information, which avails existing biological information on the genes of interest. We conduct simulation studies to examine the performance of our discrete graphical model and apply the method to two real datasets for gene network inference. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  16. Bayesian Inference of a Multivariate Regression Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marick S. Sinay

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We explore Bayesian inference of a multivariate linear regression model with use of a flexible prior for the covariance structure. The commonly adopted Bayesian setup involves the conjugate prior, multivariate normal distribution for the regression coefficients and inverse Wishart specification for the covariance matrix. Here we depart from this approach and propose a novel Bayesian estimator for the covariance. A multivariate normal prior for the unique elements of the matrix logarithm of the covariance matrix is considered. Such structure allows for a richer class of prior distributions for the covariance, with respect to strength of beliefs in prior location hyperparameters, as well as the added ability, to model potential correlation amongst the covariance structure. The posterior moments of all relevant parameters of interest are calculated based upon numerical results via a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure. The Metropolis-Hastings-within-Gibbs algorithm is invoked to account for the construction of a proposal density that closely matches the shape of the target posterior distribution. As an application of the proposed technique, we investigate a multiple regression based upon the 1980 High School and Beyond Survey.

  17. Logical inference techniques for loop parallelization

    KAUST Repository

    Oancea, Cosmin E.; Rauchwerger, Lawrence

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a fully automatic approach to loop parallelization that integrates the use of static and run-time analysis and thus overcomes many known difficulties such as nonlinear and indirect array indexing and complex control flow. Our hybrid analysis framework validates the parallelization transformation by verifying the independence of the loop's memory references. To this end it represents array references using the USR (uniform set representation) language and expresses the independence condition as an equation, S = Ø, where S is a set expression representing array indexes. Using a language instead of an array-abstraction representation for S results in a smaller number of conservative approximations but exhibits a potentially-high runtime cost. To alleviate this cost we introduce a language translation F from the USR set-expression language to an equally rich language of predicates (F(S) ⇒ S = Ø). Loop parallelization is then validated using a novel logic inference algorithm that factorizes the obtained complex predicates (F(S)) into a sequence of sufficient-independence conditions that are evaluated first statically and, when needed, dynamically, in increasing order of their estimated complexities. We evaluate our automated solution on 26 benchmarks from PERFECTCLUB and SPEC suites and show that our approach is effective in parallelizing large, complex loops and obtains much better full program speedups than the Intel and IBM Fortran compilers. Copyright © 2012 ACM.

  18. BAYESIAN INFERENCE OF CMB GRAVITATIONAL LENSING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderes, Ethan [Department of Statistics, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Wandelt, Benjamin D.; Lavaux, Guilhem [Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06 and CNRS, UMR7095, Institut d’Astrophysique de Paris, F-75014, Paris (France)

    2015-08-01

    The Planck satellite, along with several ground-based telescopes, has mapped the cosmic microwave background (CMB) at sufficient resolution and signal-to-noise so as to allow a detection of the subtle distortions due to the gravitational influence of the intervening matter distribution. A natural modeling approach is to write a Bayesian hierarchical model for the lensed CMB in terms of the unlensed CMB and the lensing potential. So far there has been no feasible algorithm for inferring the posterior distribution of the lensing potential from the lensed CMB map. We propose a solution that allows efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling from the joint posterior of the lensing potential and the unlensed CMB map using the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo technique. The main conceptual step in the solution is a re-parameterization of CMB lensing in terms of the lensed CMB and the “inverse lensing” potential. We demonstrate a fast implementation on simulated data, including noise and a sky cut, that uses a further acceleration based on a very mild approximation of the inverse lensing potential. We find that the resulting Markov Chain has short correlation lengths and excellent convergence properties, making it promising for applications to high-resolution CMB data sets in the future.

  19. Virtual reality and consciousness inference in dreaming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobson, J Allan; Hong, Charles C-H; Friston, Karl J

    2014-01-01

    This article explores the notion that the brain is genetically endowed with an innate virtual reality generator that - through experience-dependent plasticity - becomes a generative or predictive model of the world. This model, which is most clearly revealed in rapid eye movement (REM) sleep dreaming, may provide the theater for conscious experience. Functional neuroimaging evidence for brain activations that are time-locked to rapid eye movements (REMs) endorses the view that waking consciousness emerges from REM sleep - and dreaming lays the foundations for waking perception. In this view, the brain is equipped with a virtual model of the world that generates predictions of its sensations. This model is continually updated and entrained by sensory prediction errors in wakefulness to ensure veridical perception, but not in dreaming. In contrast, dreaming plays an essential role in maintaining and enhancing the capacity to model the world by minimizing model complexity and thereby maximizing both statistical and thermodynamic efficiency. This perspective suggests that consciousness corresponds to the embodied process of inference, realized through the generation of virtual realities (in both sleep and wakefulness). In short, our premise or hypothesis is that the waking brain engages with the world to predict the causes of sensations, while in sleep the brain's generative model is actively refined so that it generates more efficient predictions during waking. We review the evidence in support of this hypothesis - evidence that grounds consciousness in biophysical computations whose neuronal and neurochemical infrastructure has been disclosed by sleep research.

  20. Inferring human mobility using communication patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palchykov, Vasyl; Mitrović, Marija; Jo, Hang-Hyun; Saramäki, Jari; Pan, Raj Kumar

    2014-08-01

    Understanding the patterns of mobility of individuals is crucial for a number of reasons, from city planning to disaster management. There are two common ways of quantifying the amount of travel between locations: by direct observations that often involve privacy issues, e.g., tracking mobile phone locations, or by estimations from models. Typically, such models build on accurate knowledge of the population size at each location. However, when this information is not readily available, their applicability is rather limited. As mobile phones are ubiquitous, our aim is to investigate if mobility patterns can be inferred from aggregated mobile phone call data alone. Using data released by Orange for Ivory Coast, we show that human mobility is well predicted by a simple model based on the frequency of mobile phone calls between two locations and their geographical distance. We argue that the strength of the model comes from directly incorporating the social dimension of mobility. Furthermore, as only aggregated call data is required, the model helps to avoid potential privacy problems.

  1. Inference-based procedural modeling of solids

    KAUST Repository

    Biggers, Keith

    2011-11-01

    As virtual environments become larger and more complex, there is an increasing need for more automated construction algorithms to support the development process. We present an approach for modeling solids by combining prior examples with a simple sketch. Our algorithm uses an inference-based approach to incrementally fit patches together in a consistent fashion to define the boundary of an object. This algorithm samples and extracts surface patches from input models, and develops a Petri net structure that describes the relationship between patches along an imposed parameterization. Then, given a new parameterized line or curve, we use the Petri net to logically fit patches together in a manner consistent with the input model. This allows us to easily construct objects of varying sizes and configurations using arbitrary articulation, repetition, and interchanging of parts. The result of our process is a solid model representation of the constructed object that can be integrated into a simulation-based environment. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Multiple sequence alignment accuracy and phylogenetic inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogden, T Heath; Rosenberg, Michael S

    2006-04-01

    Phylogenies are often thought to be more dependent upon the specifics of the sequence alignment rather than on the method of reconstruction. Simulation of sequences containing insertion and deletion events was performed in order to determine the role that alignment accuracy plays during phylogenetic inference. Data sets were simulated for pectinate, balanced, and random tree shapes under different conditions (ultrametric equal branch length, ultrametric random branch length, nonultrametric random branch length). Comparisons between hypothesized alignments and true alignments enabled determination of two measures of alignment accuracy, that of the total data set and that of individual branches. In general, our results indicate that as alignment error increases, topological accuracy decreases. This trend was much more pronounced for data sets derived from more pectinate topologies. In contrast, for balanced, ultrametric, equal branch length tree shapes, alignment inaccuracy had little average effect on tree reconstruction. These conclusions are based on average trends of many analyses under different conditions, and any one specific analysis, independent of the alignment accuracy, may recover very accurate or inaccurate topologies. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian, in general, outperformed neighbor joining and maximum parsimony in terms of tree reconstruction accuracy. Results also indicated that as the length of the branch and of the neighboring branches increase, alignment accuracy decreases, and the length of the neighboring branches is the major factor in topological accuracy. Thus, multiple-sequence alignment can be an important factor in downstream effects on topological reconstruction.

  3. Phylogenetic inference with weighted codon evolutionary distances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Criscuolo, Alexis; Michel, Christian J

    2009-04-01

    We develop a new approach to estimate a matrix of pairwise evolutionary distances from a codon-based alignment based on a codon evolutionary model. The method first computes a standard distance matrix for each of the three codon positions. Then these three distance matrices are weighted according to an estimate of the global evolutionary rate of each codon position and averaged into a unique distance matrix. Using a large set of both real and simulated codon-based alignments of nucleotide sequences, we show that this approach leads to distance matrices that have a significantly better treelikeness compared to those obtained by standard nucleotide evolutionary distances. We also propose an alternative weighting to eliminate the part of the noise often associated with some codon positions, particularly the third position, which is known to induce a fast evolutionary rate. Simulation results show that fast distance-based tree reconstruction algorithms on distance matrices based on this codon position weighting can lead to phylogenetic trees that are at least as accurate as, if not better, than those inferred by maximum likelihood. Finally, a well-known multigene dataset composed of eight yeast species and 106 codon-based alignments is reanalyzed and shows that our codon evolutionary distances allow building a phylogenetic tree which is similar to those obtained by non-distance-based methods (e.g., maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood) and also significantly improved compared to standard nucleotide evolutionary distance estimates.

  4. Primate diversification inferred from phylogenies and fossils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, James P

    2017-12-01

    Biodiversity arises from the balance between speciation and extinction. Fossils record the origins and disappearance of organisms, and the branching patterns of molecular phylogenies allow estimation of speciation and extinction rates, but the patterns of diversification are frequently incongruent between these two data sources. I tested two hypotheses about the diversification of primates based on ∼600 fossil species and 90% complete phylogenies of living species: (1) diversification rates increased through time; (2) a significant extinction event occurred in the Oligocene. Consistent with the first hypothesis, analyses of phylogenies supported increasing speciation rates and negligible extinction rates. In contrast, fossils showed that while speciation rates increased, speciation and extinction rates tended to be nearly equal, resulting in zero net diversification. Partially supporting the second hypothesis, the fossil data recorded a clear pattern of diversity decline in the Oligocene, although diversification rates were near zero. The phylogeny supported increased extinction ∼34 Ma, but also elevated extinction ∼10 Ma, coinciding with diversity declines in some fossil clades. The results demonstrated that estimates of speciation and extinction ignoring fossils are insufficient to infer diversification and information on extinct lineages should be incorporated into phylogenetic analyses. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  5. Logical inference techniques for loop parallelization

    KAUST Repository

    Oancea, Cosmin E.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a fully automatic approach to loop parallelization that integrates the use of static and run-time analysis and thus overcomes many known difficulties such as nonlinear and indirect array indexing and complex control flow. Our hybrid analysis framework validates the parallelization transformation by verifying the independence of the loop\\'s memory references. To this end it represents array references using the USR (uniform set representation) language and expresses the independence condition as an equation, S = Ø, where S is a set expression representing array indexes. Using a language instead of an array-abstraction representation for S results in a smaller number of conservative approximations but exhibits a potentially-high runtime cost. To alleviate this cost we introduce a language translation F from the USR set-expression language to an equally rich language of predicates (F(S) ⇒ S = Ø). Loop parallelization is then validated using a novel logic inference algorithm that factorizes the obtained complex predicates (F(S)) into a sequence of sufficient-independence conditions that are evaluated first statically and, when needed, dynamically, in increasing order of their estimated complexities. We evaluate our automated solution on 26 benchmarks from PERFECTCLUB and SPEC suites and show that our approach is effective in parallelizing large, complex loops and obtains much better full program speedups than the Intel and IBM Fortran compilers. Copyright © 2012 ACM.

  6. Inferring Molecular Processes Heterogeneity from Transcriptional Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gogolewski, Krzysztof; Wronowska, Weronika; Lech, Agnieszka; Lesyng, Bogdan; Gambin, Anna

    2017-01-01

    RNA microarrays and RNA-seq are nowadays standard technologies to study the transcriptional activity of cells. Most studies focus on tracking transcriptional changes caused by specific experimental conditions. Information referring to genes up- and downregulation is evaluated analyzing the behaviour of relatively large population of cells by averaging its properties. However, even assuming perfect sample homogeneity, different subpopulations of cells can exhibit diverse transcriptomic profiles, as they may follow different regulatory/signaling pathways. The purpose of this study is to provide a novel methodological scheme to account for possible internal, functional heterogeneity in homogeneous cell lines, including cancer ones. We propose a novel computational method to infer the proportion between subpopulations of cells that manifest various functional behaviour in a given sample. Our method was validated using two datasets from RNA microarray experiments. Both experiments aimed to examine cell viability in specific experimental conditions. The presented methodology can be easily extended to RNA-seq data as well as other molecular processes. Moreover, it complements standard tools to indicate most important networks from transcriptomic data and in particular could be useful in the analysis of cancer cell lines affected by biologically active compounds or drugs.

  7. Contingency inferences driven by base rates: Valid by sampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Kutzner

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Fiedler et al. (2009, reviewed evidence for the utilization of a contingency inference strategy termed pseudocontingencies (PCs. In PCs, the more frequent levels (and, by implication, the less frequent levels are assumed to be associated. PCs have been obtained using a wide range of task settings and dependent measures. Yet, the readiness with which decision makers rely on PCs is poorly understood. A computer simulation explored two potential sources of subjective validity of PCs. First, PCs are shown to perform above chance level when the task is to infer the sign of moderate to strong population contingencies from a sample of observations. Second, contingency inferences based on PCs and inferences based on cell frequencies are shown to partially agree across samples. Intriguingly, this criterion and convergent validity are by-products of random sampling error, highlighting the inductive nature of contingency inferences.

  8. Quantum-Like Representation of Non-Bayesian Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, M.; Basieva, I.; Khrennikov, A.; Ohya, M.; Tanaka, Y.

    2013-01-01

    This research is related to the problem of "irrational decision making or inference" that have been discussed in cognitive psychology. There are some experimental studies, and these statistical data cannot be described by classical probability theory. The process of decision making generating these data cannot be reduced to the classical Bayesian inference. For this problem, a number of quantum-like coginitive models of decision making was proposed. Our previous work represented in a natural way the classical Bayesian inference in the frame work of quantum mechanics. By using this representation, in this paper, we try to discuss the non-Bayesian (irrational) inference that is biased by effects like the quantum interference. Further, we describe "psychological factor" disturbing "rationality" as an "environment" correlating with the "main system" of usual Bayesian inference.

  9. Statistical causal inferences and their applications in public health research

    CERN Document Server

    Wu, Pan; Chen, Ding-Geng

    2016-01-01

    This book compiles and presents new developments in statistical causal inference. The accompanying data and computer programs are publicly available so readers may replicate the model development and data analysis presented in each chapter. In this way, methodology is taught so that readers may implement it directly. The book brings together experts engaged in causal inference research to present and discuss recent issues in causal inference methodological development. This is also a timely look at causal inference applied to scenarios that range from clinical trials to mediation and public health research more broadly. In an academic setting, this book will serve as a reference and guide to a course in causal inference at the graduate level (Master's or Doctorate). It is particularly relevant for students pursuing degrees in Statistics, Biostatistics and Computational Biology. Researchers and data analysts in public health and biomedical research will also find this book to be an important reference.

  10. Human Inferences about Sequences: A Minimal Transition Probability Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florent Meyniel

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The brain constantly infers the causes of the inputs it receives and uses these inferences to generate statistical expectations about future observations. Experimental evidence for these expectations and their violations include explicit reports, sequential effects on reaction times, and mismatch or surprise signals recorded in electrophysiology and functional MRI. Here, we explore the hypothesis that the brain acts as a near-optimal inference device that constantly attempts to infer the time-varying matrix of transition probabilities between the stimuli it receives, even when those stimuli are in fact fully unpredictable. This parsimonious Bayesian model, with a single free parameter, accounts for a broad range of findings on surprise signals, sequential effects and the perception of randomness. Notably, it explains the pervasive asymmetry between repetitions and alternations encountered in those studies. Our analysis suggests that a neural machinery for inferring transition probabilities lies at the core of human sequence knowledge.

  11. Bayesian methods for hackers probabilistic programming and Bayesian inference

    CERN Document Server

    Davidson-Pilon, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples a...

  12. The Kattegat Island of Anholt

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schrøder, Niels

    2015-01-01

    relatively simple models can describe the processes that take place. New data are presented which provide a detailed description of the last 16,000 years of climate and sea level change influence on the forces that have formed the island. This geological history can be used to provide information...... on the history of groundwater recharge and drainage, and the development of the salt-fresh groundwater interface under a sand island. The fact that the center of Anholt was covered by the sea 6,000 years ago, and consequently the freshwater lens, over 100 m below sea level, did not exist means that the present......Fluctuations in sea level influence the condition of many coastal groundwater aquifers. A rise in sea level can result in seawater intrusion in areas where the groundwater level is near the present sea level, and it may take a long time for the boundary between salt and fresh groundwater to reach...

  13. Tsunami Forecast for Galapagos Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renteria, W.

    2012-04-01

    The objective of this study is to present a model for the short-term and long-term tsunami forecast for Galapagos Islands. For both cases the ComMIT/MOST(Titov,et al 2011) numerical model and methodology have been used. The results for the short-term model has been compared with the data from Lynett et al, 2011 surveyed from the impacts of the March/11 in the Galapagos Islands. For the case of long-term forecast, several scenarios have run along the Pacific, an extreme flooding map is obtained, the method is considered suitable for places with poor or without tsunami impact information, but under tsunami risk geographic location.

  14. Nuclear treasure island [superheavy nuclei

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    1999-01-01

    Summary form only given. Soon after the experiments at Dubna, which synthesized element 114 and made the first footprints on the beach of the "island of nuclear stability", two new superheavy elements have been discovered at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Element 118 and its immediate decay product, element 116, were manufactured at Berkeley's 88 inch cyclotron by fusing targets of lead-208 with an intense beam of 449 MeV krypton-86 ions. Although both new nuclei almost instantly decay into lighter ones, the decay sequence is consistent with theories that have long predicted the island of stability for nuclei with approximately 114 protons and 184 neutrons. Theorist Robert Smolanczuk, visiting from the Soltan Institute for Nuclear Studies in Poland, had calculated that this reaction should have particularly favourable production rates. Now that this route has been signposted, similar reactions could be possible: new elements and isotopes, tests of nuclear stability and mass models, and a new under...

  15. Holocene Tree Line and Climate Change on the Queen Charlotte Islands, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellatt, Marlow G.; Mathewes, Rolf W.

    1997-07-01

    Palynological study of two subalpine ponds on the Queen Charlotte Islands reveals changes in tree line and climate during the Holocene. The findings agree with previous reconstructions, from nearby Louise Pond on the Queen Charlotte Islands, that suggest a warmer-than-present climate and higher-than-present tree lines in the early Holocene (ca. 9600-6600 14C yr B.P.). Basal ages at SC1 Pond and Shangri-La Bog indicate that the basins did not hold permanent water before 7200 14C yr B.P., consistent with a warmer and drier early Holocene previously inferred from Louise Pond. Pollen and plant macrofossils indicate the initial establishment of subalpine conditions by 6090 ± 90 14C yr B.P., similar to the 5790 ± 130 14C yr B.P. age for cooling inferred from Louise Pond. Conditions similar to present were established at SC1 Pond by 3460 ± 100 14C yr B.P., confirming the previous estimate of 3400 14C yr B.P. at Louise Pond. This 3400 14C yr B.P. vegetation shift on the Queen Charlotte Islands corresponds with the beginning of the Tiedemann glacial advance in the south-coastal mountains of British Columbia (ca. 3300 14C yr B.P.), the Peyto and Robson glacial advances between 3300 and 2800 14C yr B.P. in the Rocky Mountains, and climatic cooling inferred from palynological studies throughout southern British Columbia, northern Washington, and southeast Alaska. These findings confirm that changes in regional climate influenced changes in vegetation in coastal British Columbia.

  16. Stratigraphy, sedimentology and eruptive mechanisms in the tuff cone of El Golfo (Lanzarote, Canary Islands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedrazzi, Dario; Martí, Joan; Geyer, Adelina

    2013-07-01

    The tuff cone of El Golfo on the western coast of Lanzarote (Canary Islands) is a typical hydrovolcanic edifice. Along with other edifices of the same age, it was constructed along a fracture oriented NEE-SWW that coincides with the main structural trend of recent volcanism in this part of the island. We conducted a detailed stratigraphic study of the succession of deposits present in this tuff cone and here interpret them in light of the depositional processes and eruptive dynamics that we were able to infer. The eruptive sequence is represented by a succession of pyroclastic deposits, most of which were emplaced by flow, plus a number of air-fall deposits and ballistic blocks and bombs. We distinguished five different eruptive/depositional stages on the basis of differences in inferred current flow regimes and fragmentation efficiencies represented by the resulting deposits; the different stages may be related to variations in the explosive energy. Eight lithofacies were identified based on sedimentary discontinuities, grain size, components, variations in primary laminations and bedforms. The volcanic edifice was constructed very rapidly around the vent, and this is inferred to have controlled the amount of water that was able to enter the eruption conduit. The sedimentological characteristics of the deposits and the nature and distribution of palagonitic alteration suggest that most of the pyroclastic succession in El Golfo was deposited in a subaerial environment. This type of hydrovolcanic explosive activity is common in the coastal zones of Lanzarote and the other Canary Islands and is one of the main potential hazards that could threaten the human population of this archipelago. Detailed studies of these hydrovolcanic eruptions such as the one we present here can help volcanologists understand the hazards that this type of eruption can generate and provide essential information for undertaking risk assessment in similar volcanic environments.

  17. Wake Island Supplemental Environmental Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-02-01

    During the 1998 marine biological survey, a total of 122 species of reef fish, 41 species of corals, 39 species of other macroinvertebrates , and 19...The lagoon supports a large population of fish and the surrounding reefs host a diverse assemblage of reef fish. Nearshore fish important for food...found at Wake Island. The Federally threatened Green sea turtle (Chelonia mydas) was observed multiple times in the near shore ocean and lagoon

  18. Dauphin Island natural gas project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Layfield, R.P.; Elser, K.L.; Ostler, R.H.

    1994-01-01

    Arco Oil and Gas Co. installed the Dauphin Island production facility in a fragile Alabama marine environment supporting important fisheries and tourist facilities. The authors used proactive communication with governmental agencies, area industry, and the public; innovative construction technologies; and unique platform design to minimize the environmental and aesthetic impacts and to develop an economically successful gas field. The innovative equipment used in the offshore pipeline installation is a model approach for solving certain turbidity problems. The project has received numerous environmental awards

  19. The Three Mile Island crisis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houts, P.S.; Cleary, P.D.; Hu, T.W.

    1988-01-01

    Since the March 1979 accident at the Three Mile Island (TMI) nuclear power plant, many studies have assessed its impacts. Compiled and summarized in this book are the results of five related surveys, all aimed at the scientific assessment of the psycho-socio-economic behavior of the residents around the TMI facility. These studies are based on a randomly selected, large sample of the population (with telephones) around TMI

  20. Dauphin Island natural gas project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Layfield, R.P. (Arco International Oil and Gas Co., Plano, TX (United States)); Elser, K.L.; Ostler, R.H. (Arco Oil and Gas Co., Houston, TX (United States))

    1994-01-01

    Arco Oil and Gas Co. installed the Dauphin Island production facility in a fragile Alabama marine environment supporting important fisheries and tourist facilities. The authors used proactive communication with governmental agencies, area industry, and the public; innovative construction technologies; and unique platform design to minimize the environmental and aesthetic impacts and to develop an economically successful gas field. The innovative equipment used in the offshore pipeline installation is a model approach for solving certain turbidity problems. The project has received numerous environmental awards.

  1. Lodging Update: Providence, Rhode Island

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ragel Roginsky

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Each quarter, Pinnacle Advisory Group prepares an analysis of the New England lodging industry, which provides a regional summary and then focuses in depth on a particular market. These reviews look at recent and proposed supply changes, factors affecting demand and growth rates, and the effects of interactions between such supply and demand trends. In this issue, the authors spotlight the lodging market in Providence, Rhode Island.

  2. Tilt measurements at Vulcano Island

    OpenAIRE

    B. Saraceno; G. Laudani; F. Guglielmino; A. Ferro; G. Falzone; O. Campisi; S. Gambino

    2007-01-01

    A network of tiltmeters has been operational on Vulcano Island for numerous years. At present, the network comprises five functioning borehole stations, four of which are installed at 8-10 m and allow recording very stable, high precision signals with very low noise. We report observations over the last 12 years that illustrate impulsive variations linked to seismicity and long-term (several years) trends in the signals. We suggest a relationship between tilt changes correlated to the stro...

  3. First record of the mycoheterotrophic orchid Gastrodia fontinalis (Orchidaceae from Takeshima Island, the Ryukyu Islands, Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenji Suetsugu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available We found Gastrodia fontinalis T. P. Lin in a bamboo forest from Takeshima Island, which is the northernmost island of the Ryukyu Islands in Japan. This species is apparently rare and was previously considered to be an endemic Taiwanese species. Because there are a few minor differences between the original description and our specimens collected in Takeshima Island, here we report Gastrodia fontinalis from Takeshima Island as the first record outside of Taiwan, with a description of the specimens from Takeshima Island.

  4. 78 FR 63860 - Amendment of Class D Airspace; Kwajalein Island, Marshall Islands, RMI

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-25

    ...This action amends the Kwajalein Island Class D airspace description by amending the geographic coordinates for Bucholz Army Airfield (AAF), Kwajalein Island, Marshall Islands, RMI. The Bucholz AAF geographic coordinates information was updated in the Kwajalein Island Class E airspace descriptions in 2011, but was inadvertently overlooked in the Kwajalein Island Class D airspace description. This action ensures the safety of aircraft operating in the Kwajalein Island airspace area. This is an administrative action and does not affect the operating requirements of the airspace.

  5. Depopulation of Vis Island, Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivo Nejašmić

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses population dynamics of Vis Island along with geographic, demographic and social features related to this process. Data from demographic statistics and research results show that Vis Island has been affected by strong populational regression. This process originated at the beginning of the 20th century, and intensified after the Second World War. Depopulation was generated by retardation in socio-economic development, but it was directly caused by centennial emigration. At the beginning of 1960s, natural decrease occurred as another important cause of depopulation. It was the result of postponed effect of emigration, demographic losses in world wars and birth rate transition (changes in number of children per family. Long-term unfavorable demographic processes (emigration, depopulation, demographic aging, reduced birth rates have led to weakening of (bioreproduction and vital potential. The above-mentioned fact has also influencedthe age structure of the population. Population of Vis Island has aged and belongs to a particular demographic type named very old population. However, depopulation, that used to be the result of social phenomena, has become an important factor of social and spatial processes.

  6. Generalized model of island biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, David A.; Shnerb, Nadav M.

    2015-04-01

    The dynamics of a local community of competing species with weak immigration from a static regional pool is studied. Implementing the generalized competitive Lotka-Volterra model with demographic noise, a rich dynamics with four qualitatively distinct phases is unfolded. When the overall interspecies competition is weak, the island species recapitulate the mainland species. For higher values of the competition parameter, the system still admits an equilibrium community, but now some of the mainland species are absent on the island. Further increase in competition leads to an intermittent "disordered" phase, where the dynamics is controlled by invadable combinations of species and the turnover rate is governed by the migration. Finally, the strong competition phase is glasslike, dominated by uninvadable states and noise-induced transitions. Our model contains, as a special case, the celebrated neutral island theories of Wilson-MacArthur and Hubbell. Moreover, we show that slight deviations from perfect neutrality may lead to each of the phases, as the Hubbell point appears to be quadracritical.

  7. Applicability of T-S algorithms to the Canary Islands region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Marrero-Díaz

    2001-07-01

    Full Text Available The high cost of oceanographic cruises often makes it advisable to use opportunity vessels for simple measurements, such as determining the temperature of the water column with expandable bathythermographs (XBT. In this work we examine the goodness and reliability of a method aimed at obtaining the maximum possible information from XBT data, and we apply it to the Canary Islands region. It consists in calculating analytic relations between temperature and salinity from historical conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD data for the region, which are then used to hindcast/forecast the salinity and density distribution, as well as the distribution of other inferred quantities such as velocity. A hindcasting is carried out using direct independent temperature measurements obtained from a hydrographic cruise south of the island of Gran Canaria. At depths greater than 100-150 m the results show good agreement with the calculations obtained from CTD in situ data.

  8. Monitoring the coastline change of Hatiya Island in Bangladesh using remote sensing techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Manoj Kumer; Kumar, Lalit; Roy, Chandan

    2015-03-01

    A large percentage of the world's population is concentrated along the coastal zones. These environmentally sensitive areas are under intense pressure from natural processes such as erosion, accretion and natural disasters as well as anthropogenic processes such as urban growth, resource development and pollution. These threats have made the coastal zone a priority for coastline monitoring programs and sustainable coastal management. This research utilizes integrated techniques of remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) to monitor coastline changes from 1989 to 2010 at Hatiya Island, Bangladesh. In this study, satellite images from Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM) were used to quantify the spatio-temporal changes that took place in the coastal zone of Hatiya Island during the specified period. The modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI) algorithm was applied to TM (1989 and 2010) and ETM (2000) images to discriminate the land-water interface and the on-screen digitizing approach was used over the MNDWI images of 1989, 2000 and 2010 for coastline extraction. Afterwards, the extent of changes in the coastline was estimated through overlaying the digitized maps of Hatiya Island of all three years. Coastline positions were highlighted to infer the erosion/accretion sectors along the coast, and the coastline changes were calculated. The results showed that erosion was severe in the northern and western parts of the island, whereas the southern and eastern parts of the island gained land through sedimentation. Over the study period (1989-2010), this offshore island witnessed the erosion of 6476 hectares. In contrast it experienced an accretion of 9916 hectares. These erosion and accretion processes played an active role in the changes of coastline during the study period.

  9. Introduced mammals on Western Indian Ocean islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James C. Russell

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The diversity of introduced mammals and their introduction history varies greatly across the Western Indian Ocean (WIO islands, from ancient introductions in the past millennia on islands off the East coast of Africa where extant terrestrial native mammal communities exist, to very recent invasions in the past decades on islands in the Mascarene archipelago. We compile the distribution of 16 introduced mammal taxa on 28 island groups comprising almost 2000 islands. Through an exhaustive literature review and expert consultation process we recorded all mammal eradications, and species recoveries which could be attributed to introduced mammal eradication or control. All island groups have been invaded by mammals, and invasive cats and rats in particular are ubiquitous, but cultural contingency has also led to regional invasions by other mammals such as lemurs, civets and tenrecs. Mammal eradications have been attempted on 45 islands in the WIO, the majority in the Seychelles and Mauritius, and where successful have resulted in spectacular recovery of species and ecosystems. Invasive mammalian predator eradication or control in association with habitat management has led to improved conservation prospects for at least 24 species, and IUCN red-list down-listing of eight species, in the Mascarene Islands. Future island conservation prioritisation in the region will need to take account of global climate change and predicted sea-level rises and coastal inundation. Greater investment and prioritisation in island conservation in the region is warranted, given its high biodiversity values and the extent of invasions.

  10. Island development: Local governance under globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huei-Min Tsai

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Issues surrounding island development have generated a growing volume of research. What does it mean to develop? How can island communities maintain control over development processes to the benefit of the local economy, rather than seeing economic flows enter and exit the island with little or a primarily negative impact? And how important is local knowledge for edifying local governance and enhancing potentials for innovation in island development? Island histories have repeatedly been forwarded as exemplars and ‘lessons’ for global learning on (unsustainability. To consider these issues, we have selected a number of papers from among the presentations given at the International Geographical Union’s Commission on Islands Conference, Island Development: Local Economy, Culture, Innovation and Sustainability, which took place in the Penghu Archipelago, Taiwan, 1–5 October 2013. These papers serve as examples of how the processes of globalization have penetrated the borders and changed the political and economic structures of islands. They also explore how island-based innovations in science, technology, culture, and formal or informal governance might contribute to sustainable island development.

  11. Pathogenicity island mobility and gene content.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Kelly Porter

    2013-10-01

    Key goals towards national biosecurity include methods for analyzing pathogens, predicting their emergence, and developing countermeasures. These goals are served by studying bacterial genes that promote pathogenicity and the pathogenicity islands that mobilize them. Cyberinfrastructure promoting an island database advances this field and enables deeper bioinformatic analysis that may identify novel pathogenicity genes. New automated methods and rich visualizations were developed for identifying pathogenicity islands, based on the principle that islands occur sporadically among closely related strains. The chromosomally-ordered pan-genome organizes all genes from a clade of strains; gaps in this visualization indicate islands, and decorations of the gene matrix facilitate exploration of island gene functions. A %E2%80%9Clearned phyloblocks%E2%80%9D method was developed for automated island identification, that trains on the phylogenetic patterns of islands identified by other methods. Learned phyloblocks better defined termini of previously identified islands in multidrug-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae ATCC BAA-2146, and found its only antibiotic resistance island.

  12. Influence of climatic oscillations in the archaeological sequence on Marajo island, Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meggers, B.J.; Danon, J.; Ferreira, J.; Valladas, H.

    1982-01-01

    Thermoluminescence dates define the durations of five successive archaeological complexes or phases on the island of Marajo, providing a chronology extending from about 34000 B.P. to European contact. A hiatus of 930 + - 300 years coincides with a period of aridity between about 2700 and 2000 B.P. inferred from pollen sequences in various parts of the neo-tropical lowlands, suggesting that Marajo may have been abandoned by pottery-making groups during this interval because of subsistence stress. (Author) [pt

  13. Phylogeography and diversification history of the day-gecko genus Phelsuma in the Seychelles islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha, Sara; Posada, David; Harris, D James

    2013-01-05

    Lying in a shallow continental shelf cyclically affected by oscillating sea levels since the Miocene, the Seychelles islands are particularly interesting for evolutionary studies. Recent molecular studies are generating an emerging picture of the origin of its biota, yet very little is known regarding their phylogeographic structure or on the factors promoting diversification within the archipelago. Here we aimed to obtain a detailed depiction of the genetic structure and evolution of one of the most widespread vertebrate groups in the archipelago: the day-geckos of the genus Phelsuma. In parallel, we aimed to infer divergence times between species and subspecies, testing a long-standing hypothesis that argues for different time since sympatry between species as the cause of their different morphological differentiation across the archipelago. Molecular data corroborated the existence of two main lineages, corresponding to the two currently recognized species. Divergences between species likely date back to the Mio-Pliocene, while more recent, Pleistocenic, divergences are suggested within each species. Populations from outer islands share mtDNA haplotypes with inner island populations, suggesting very recent dispersals (or introductions). We found no evidence of current gene flow between species, but results pointed to the possibility of gene flow between (now allopatric) subspecies. Time estimates suggest a synchronous divergence within each species (between island groups). The geographic patterns of genetic variation agree with previous taxonomic subdivisions within each species and the origin of outer islands populations is clearly tracked. The similar intraspecific divergence time estimates obtained suggest that the differential body-size differentiation between species within each group of islands may be driven by factors other than character displacement proportional to time since sympatry, as previously suggested. These factors could include different

  14. Divergence times and colonization of the Canary Islands by Gallotia lizards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Siobhan C; Carranza, Salvador; Brown, Richard P

    2010-08-01

    The Canary Islands have become a model region for evolutionary studies. We obtained 1.8 Kbp of mtDNA sequence from all known island forms of the endemic lizard genus Gallotia and from its sister taxon Psammodromus in order to reanalyze phylogenetic relationships within the archipelago, estimate lineage divergence times, and reconstruct the colonization history of this group. Well-supported phylogenies were obtained using maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference. Previous studies have been unable to establish the branching pattern at the base of the tree. We found evidence that G. stehlini (Gran Canaria) originated from the most basal Gallotia node and G. atlantica from the subsequent node. Divergence times were estimated under a global clock using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods implemented by three different programs: BEAST, MCMCTREE, MULTIDIVTIME. Node constraints were derived from subaerial island appearance data and were incorporated into the analyses as soft or hard maximal bounds. Posterior node ages differed slightly between programs, possibly due to different priors on divergence times. The most eastern Canary Islands first emerged just over 20 mya and their colonization appears to have taken place relatively quickly, around 17-20 mya. The subsequent node is consistent with cladogenesis due to colonization of Gran Canaria from the eastern islands about 11-13 mya. The western islands appear to have been colonized by a dispersal event from Lanzarote/Fuerteventura in the east to either La Gomera or one of the ancient edifices that subsequently formed Tenerife in the west, about 9-10 mya. Within the western islands, the most recent node that is ancestral to both the G. intermedia/G. gomerana/G. simonyi and the G.galloti/G. caesaris clades is dated at about 5-6 mya. Subsequent dispersal events between ancient Tenerife islands and La Gomera are dated at around 3 mya in both clades, although the direction of dispersal cannot be determined. Finally, we

  15. Phylogeography and conservation genetics of the common wall lizard, Podarcis muralis, on islands at its northern range.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sozos Michaelides

    Full Text Available Populations at range limits are often characterized by lower genetic diversity, increased genetic isolation and differentiation relative to populations at the core of geographical ranges. Furthermore, it is increasingly recognized that populations situated at range limits might be the result of human introductions rather than natural dispersal. It is therefore important to document the origin and genetic diversity of marginal populations to establish conservation priorities. In this study, we investigate the phylogeography and genetic structure of peripheral populations of the common European wall lizard, Podarcis muralis, on Jersey (Channel Islands, UK and in the Chausey archipelago. We sequenced a fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene in 200 individuals of P. muralis to infer the phylogeography of the island populations using Bayesian approaches. We also genotyped 484 individuals from 21 populations at 10 polymorphic microsatellite loci to evaluate the genetic structure and diversity of island and mainland (Western France populations. We detected four unique haplotypes in the island populations that formed a sub-clade within the Western France clade. There was a significant reduction in genetic diversity (HO, HE and AR of the island populations in relation to the mainland. The small fragmented island populations at the northern range margin of the common wall lizard distribution are most likely native, with genetic differentiation reflecting isolation following sea level increase approximately 7000 BP. Genetic diversity is lower on islands than in marginal populations on the mainland, potentially as a result of early founder effects or long-term isolation. The combination of restriction to specific localities and an inability to expand their range into adjacent suitable locations might make the island populations more vulnerable to extinction.

  16. Inferring climate variability from skewed proxy records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emile-Geay, J.; Tingley, M.

    2013-12-01

    Many paleoclimate analyses assume a linear relationship between the proxy and the target climate variable, and that both the climate quantity and the errors follow normal distributions. An ever-increasing number of proxy records, however, are better modeled using distributions that are heavy-tailed, skewed, or otherwise non-normal, on account of the proxies reflecting non-normally distributed climate variables, or having non-linear relationships with a normally distributed climate variable. The analysis of such proxies requires a different set of tools, and this work serves as a cautionary tale on the danger of making conclusions about the underlying climate from applications of classic statistical procedures to heavily skewed proxy records. Inspired by runoff proxies, we consider an idealized proxy characterized by a nonlinear, thresholded relationship with climate, and describe three approaches to using such a record to infer past climate: (i) applying standard methods commonly used in the paleoclimate literature, without considering the non-linearities inherent to the proxy record; (ii) applying a power transform prior to using these standard methods; (iii) constructing a Bayesian model to invert the mechanistic relationship between the climate and the proxy. We find that neglecting the skewness in the proxy leads to erroneous conclusions and often exaggerates changes in climate variability between different time intervals. In contrast, an explicit treatment of the skewness, using either power transforms or a Bayesian inversion of the mechanistic model for the proxy, yields significantly better estimates of past climate variations. We apply these insights in two paleoclimate settings: (1) a classical sedimentary record from Laguna Pallcacocha, Ecuador (Moy et al., 2002). Our results agree with the qualitative aspects of previous analyses of this record, but quantitative departures are evident and hold implications for how such records are interpreted, and

  17. Vertically Integrated Seismological Analysis II : Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, N. S.; Russell, S.; Sudderth, E.

    2009-12-01

    Methods for automatically associating detected waveform features with hypothesized seismic events, and localizing those events, are a critical component of efforts to verify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). As outlined in our companion abstract, we have developed a hierarchical model which views detection, association, and localization as an integrated probabilistic inference problem. In this abstract, we provide more details on the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods used to solve this inference task. MCMC generates samples from a posterior distribution π(x) over possible worlds x by defining a Markov chain whose states are the worlds x, and whose stationary distribution is π(x). In the Metropolis-Hastings (M-H) method, transitions in the Markov chain are constructed in two steps. First, given the current state x, a candidate next state x‧ is generated from a proposal distribution q(x‧ | x), which may be (more or less) arbitrary. Second, the transition to x‧ is not automatic, but occurs with an acceptance probability—α(x‧ | x) = min(1, π(x‧)q(x | x‧)/π(x)q(x‧ | x)). The seismic event model outlined in our companion abstract is quite similar to those used in multitarget tracking, for which MCMC has proved very effective. In this model, each world x is defined by a collection of events, a list of properties characterizing those events (times, locations, magnitudes, and types), and the association of each event to a set of observed detections. The target distribution π(x) = P(x | y), the posterior distribution over worlds x given the observed waveform data y at all stations. Proposal distributions then implement several types of moves between worlds. For example, birth moves create new events; death moves delete existing events; split moves partition the detections for an event into two new events; merge moves combine event pairs; swap moves modify the properties and assocations for pairs of events. Importantly, the rules for

  18. Network inference via adaptive optimal design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stigter Johannes D

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Current research in network reverse engineering for genetic or metabolic networks very often does not include a proper experimental and/or input design. In this paper we address this issue in more detail and suggest a method that includes an iterative design of experiments based, on the most recent data that become available. The presented approach allows a reliable reconstruction of the network and addresses an important issue, i.e., the analysis and the propagation of uncertainties as they exist in both the data and in our own knowledge. These two types of uncertainties have their immediate ramifications for the uncertainties in the parameter estimates and, hence, are taken into account from the very beginning of our experimental design. Findings The method is demonstrated for two small networks that include a genetic network for mRNA synthesis and degradation and an oscillatory network describing a molecular network underlying adenosine 3’-5’ cyclic monophosphate (cAMP as observed in populations of Dyctyostelium cells. In both cases a substantial reduction in parameter uncertainty was observed. Extension to larger scale networks is possible but needs a more rigorous parameter estimation algorithm that includes sparsity as a constraint in the optimization procedure. Conclusion We conclude that a careful experiment design very often (but not always pays off in terms of reliability in the inferred network topology. For large scale networks a better parameter estimation algorithm is required that includes sparsity as an additional constraint. These algorithms are available in the literature and can also be used in an adaptive optimal design setting as demonstrated in this paper.

  19. On the Hardness of Topology Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharya, H. B.; Gouda, M. G.

    Many systems require information about the topology of networks on the Internet, for purposes like management, efficiency, testing of new protocols and so on. However, ISPs usually do not share the actual topology maps with outsiders; thus, in order to obtain the topology of a network on the Internet, a system must reconstruct it from publicly observable data. The standard method employs traceroute to obtain paths between nodes; next, a topology is generated such that the observed paths occur in the graph. However, traceroute has the problem that some routers refuse to reveal their addresses, and appear as anonymous nodes in traces. Previous research on the problem of topology inference with anonymous nodes has demonstrated that it is at best NP-complete. In this paper, we improve upon this result. In our previous research, we showed that in the special case where nodes may be anonymous in some traces but not in all traces (so all node identifiers are known), there exist trace sets that are generable from multiple topologies. This paper extends our theory of network tracing to the general case (with strictly anonymous nodes), and shows that the problem of computing the network that generated a trace set, given the trace set, has no general solution. The weak version of the problem, which allows an algorithm to output a "small" set of networks- any one of which is the correct one- is also not solvable. Any algorithm guaranteed to output the correct topology outputs at least an exponential number of networks. Our results are surprisingly robust: they hold even when the network is known to have exactly two anonymous nodes, and every node as well as every edge in the network is guaranteed to occur in some trace. On the basis of this result, we suggest that exact reconstruction of network topology requires more powerful tools than traceroute.

  20. Statistical Inference for Data Adaptive Target Parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, Alan E; Kherad-Pajouh, Sara; van der Laan, Mark J

    2016-05-01

    Consider one observes n i.i.d. copies of a random variable with a probability distribution that is known to be an element of a particular statistical model. In order to define our statistical target we partition the sample in V equal size sub-samples, and use this partitioning to define V splits in an estimation sample (one of the V subsamples) and corresponding complementary parameter-generating sample. For each of the V parameter-generating samples, we apply an algorithm that maps the sample to a statistical target parameter. We define our sample-split data adaptive statistical target parameter as the average of these V-sample specific target parameters. We present an estimator (and corresponding central limit theorem) of this type of data adaptive target parameter. This general methodology for generating data adaptive target parameters is demonstrated with a number of practical examples that highlight new opportunities for statistical learning from data. This new framework provides a rigorous statistical methodology for both exploratory and confirmatory analysis within the same data. Given that more research is becoming "data-driven", the theory developed within this paper provides a new impetus for a greater involvement of statistical inference into problems that are being increasingly addressed by clever, yet ad hoc pattern finding methods. To suggest such potential, and to verify the predictions of the theory, extensive simulation studies, along with a data analysis based on adaptively determined intervention rules are shown and give insight into how to structure such an approach. The results show that the data adaptive target parameter approach provides a general framework and resulting methodology for data-driven science.