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Sample records for baffin island inferred

  1. Paleoenvironmental inference models from sediment diatom assemblages in Baffin Island lakes (Nunavut, Canada) and reconstruction of summer water temperature

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    Joynt, E. H. III; Wolfe, A. P. [Colorado Univ., Inst. of Arctic and Alpine Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2001-06-01

    Lake sediments are attractive repositories for paleoclimate proxy data because they are temporally continuous, undisturbed and datable. It is particularly true of lakes which are ubiquitous throughout the Arctic regions, enabling dense spatial coverage of sampling sites. In more recent times diatoms have been applied to a a variety of paleoenvironmental questions. However, these studies have been of limited usefulness because they lack a regional training set that would facilitate making quantitative paleoenvironmental inferences. This article provides this inferential tool, together with an example of its application. Conductivity, pH, summer lake water temperature, and mean annual air temperature have been identified as the significant controls over diatom assemblages from the surface sediments of 61 lakes on Baffin Island. Using weighted-averaging regression and calibration, predictive models for these parameters have been developed. Results show that the summer lake water temperature model provides realistic reconstructions when compared with other paleoenvironmental records. Over the past 5000 years the amplitude of reconstructed summer lake water temperature was found to be on the order of 4 degrees C, expressed primarily as progressive neoglacial cooling culminating in the Little Ice Age. Diatom-inferred summer water temperatures have increased by about 2 degrees C in the past 150 years, which is also in agreement with independent paleoclimatic reconstructions. The data obtained in this study complements similar efforts from the western Canadian Arctic and the northern reaches of Scandinavia, however, this is the first training set developed for lakes situated entirely north of the tree line. As such, it extends the applicability of diatoms for paleotemperature reconstructions well into the Arctic tundra biome. 45 refs., 1 tab., 10 figs., 1 appendix.

  2. The Thermal Evolution of the Southeast Baffin Island Continental Margin: An Integrated Apatite Fission Track and Apatite (U-Th)/He Study

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    Jess, S.; Stephenson, R.; Brown, R. W.

    2017-12-01

    The elevated continental margins of the North Atlantic continue to be a focus of considerable geological and geomorphological debate, as the timing of major tectonic events and the age of topographic relief remain controversial. The West Greenland margin, on the eastern flank of Baffin Bay, is believed by some authors to have experienced tectonic rejuvenation and uplift during the Neogene. However, the opposing flank, Baffin Island, is considered to have experienced a protracted erosional regime with little tectonic activity since the Cretaceous. This work examines the thermal evolution of the Cumberland Peninsula, SE Baffin Island, using published apatite fission track (AFT) data with the addition of 103 apatite (U-Th)/He (AHe) ages. This expansion of available thermochronological data introduces a higher resolution of thermal modelling, whilst the application of the newly developed `Broken Crystals' technique provides a greater number of thermal constraints for an area dominated by AHe age dispersion. Results of joint thermal modelling of the AFT and AHe data exhibit two significant periods of cooling across the Cumberland Peninsula: Devonian/Carboniferous to the Triassic and Late Cretaceous to present. The earliest phase of cooling is interpreted as the result of major fluvial systems present throughout the Paleozoic that flowed across the Canadian Shield to basins in the north and south. The later stage of cooling is believed to result from rift controlled fluvial systems that flowed into Baffin Bay during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic during the early stages and culmination of rifting along the Labrador-Baffin margins. Glaciation in the Late Cenozoic has likely overprinted these later river systems creating a complex fjordal distribution that has shaped the modern elevated topography. This work demonstrates how surface processes, and not tectonism, can explain the formation of elevated continental margins and that recent methodological developments in the field of

  3. Pre-industrial and recent (1970-2010) atmospheric deposition of sulfate and mercury in snow on southern Baffin Island, Arctic Canada.

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    Zdanowicz, Christian; Kruemmel, Eva; Lean, David; Poulain, Alexandre; Kinnard, Christophe; Yumvihoze, Emmanuel; Chen, JiuBin; Hintelmann, Holger

    2015-03-15

    Sulfate (SO4(2-)) and mercury (Hg) are airborne pollutants transported to the Arctic where they can affect properties of the atmosphere and the health of marine or terrestrial ecosystems. Detecting trends in Arctic Hg pollution is challenging because of the short period of direct observations, particularly of actual deposition. Here, we present an updated proxy record of atmospheric SO4(2-) and a new 40-year record of total Hg (THg) and monomethyl Hg (MeHg) deposition developed from a firn core (P2010) drilled from Penny Ice Cap, Baffin Island, Canada. The updated P2010 record shows stable mean SO4(2-) levels over the past 40 years, which is inconsistent with observations of declining atmospheric SO4(2-) or snow acidity in the Arctic during the same period. A sharp THg enhancement in the P2010 core ca 1991 is tentatively attributed to the fallout from the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Hekla. Although MeHg accumulation on Penny Ice Cap had remained constant since 1970, THg accumulation increased after the 1980s. This increase is not easily explained by changes in snow accumulation, marine aerosol inputs or air mass trajectories; however, a causal link may exist with the declining sea-ice cover conditions in the Baffin Bay sector. The ratio of THg accumulation between pre-industrial times (reconstructed from archived ice cores) and the modern industrial era is estimated at between 4- and 16-fold, which is consistent with estimates from Arctic lake sediment cores. The new P2010 THg record is the first of its kind developed from the Baffin Island region of the eastern Canadian Arctic and one of very few such records presently available in the Arctic. As such, it may help to bridge the knowledge gap linking direct observation of gaseous Hg in the Arctic atmosphere and actual net deposition and accumulation in various terrestrial media. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Accelerated contributions of Canada's Baffin and Bylot Island glaciers to sea level rise over the past half century

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    A. Gardner

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Canadian Arctic glaciers have recently contributed large volumes of meltwater to the world's oceans. To place recently observed glacier wastage into a historical perspective and to determine the region's longer-term (~50 years contribution to sea level, we estimate mass and volume changes for the glaciers of Baffin and Bylot Islands using digital elevation models generated from airborne and satellite stereoscopic imagery and elevation postings from repeat airborne and satellite laser altimetry. In addition, we update existing glacier mass change records from GRACE satellite gravimetry to cover the period from 2003 to 2011. Using this integrated approach, we find that the rate of mass loss from the region's glaciers increased from 11.1 ± 3.4 Gt a−1 (271 ± 84 kg m−2 a−1 for the period 1963–2006 to 23.8 ± 6.1 Gt a−1 (581 ± 149 kg m−2 a−1 for the period 2003–2011. The doubling of the rate of mass loss is attributed to higher temperatures in summer with little change in annual precipitation. Through both direct and indirect effects, changes in summer temperatures accounted for 70–98% of the variance in the rate of mass loss, to which the Barnes Ice Cap was found to be 1.7 times more sensitive than either the Penny Ice Cap or the region's glaciers as a whole. This heightened sensitivity is the result of a glacier hypsometry that is skewed to lower elevations, which are shown to have a higher mass change sensitive to temperature compared to glacier surfaces at higher elevations. Between 2003 and 2011 the glaciers of Baffin and Bylot Islands contributed 0.07 ± 0.02 mm a−1 to sea level rise accounting for 16% of the total contribution from glaciers outside of Greenland and Antarctica, a rate much higher than the longer-term average of 0.03 ± 0.01 mm a−1 (1963 to 2006.

  5. One Isotope, Two Tales: using plant and cosmogenic 14C to constrain Holocene glacier activity on Baffin Island.

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    Pendleton, S.; Miller, G. H.; Lifton, N. A.; Young, N. E.

    2017-12-01

    As the cryosphere continues to undergo rapid and accelerating change, it is more important than ever to understand past glacier activity to predict the future of the cryosphere. However, continuous Holocene glacier records are notoriously difficult to reconstruct because an advancing glacier will re-incorporate previous deposits so that moraines typically only record the farthest downvalley glacier expansion. Here we combine dates of ice margin advance from in situ dead vegetation with in situ cosmogenic 14C (in situ 14C) from preserved bedrock surfaces at the same locations to further constrain the timing of ice-free episodes during the Holocene following deglaciation on southern Baffin Island. Radiocarbon ages from recently exposed in situ plants suggest that ice last advanced over sample locations at 9.4, 9.2, 9.0, and 3.7 ka and that they remained ice covered until modern times. Associated in situ 14C inventories are variable, but well above background levels, suggesting some amount of Holocene in situ 14C production. Using plant 14C ages representing the beginning of ice coverage and in situ 14C inventories representative of exposure prior to ice coverage, a simple model of cosmogenic in situ 14C production (accounting for muon production through ice) provides constraints timing and duration of ice-free times at sample locations prior to their most recent burial. Using conservative Holocene ice thicknesses, the locations buried at 9.4, 9.2, and 9.0 ka require, at minimum, 1000 years of pre-burial exposure to match the observed in situ 14C inventory. This suggests these locations were ice free by at least 10 ka and likely earlier. The in situ 14C inventory at the location buried at 3.7 ka limits prior exposure to 2000 years, suggesting that this location experienced more complex Holocene ice cover/burial history. These pilot data show that valuable information regarding periods of exposure is contained within in situ 14C inventories. Additional paired plant and

  6. Magnetic and mineralogical properties of central Baffin Bay sediments since the Last Glacial Maximum

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    Simon, Q.; St-Onge, G.; Hillaire-Marcel, C.

    2011-12-01

    Magnetic and mineralogical properties of terrigenous sediments from the deep central Baffin Bay (HU2008-029-016PC - 70°46,14N/-64°65,77W - 2063 m) were analyzed as a means of linking sedimentological changes to ice-margin dynamics along the surrounding coastlines of W. Greenland, E. Baffin Island and N.E. Ellesmere Island since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). A chronology based on relative paleointensity (RPI) and secular variation (PSV) in sections where magnetism properties were suitable has been set. The age-model yields a low mean sedimentation rate varying between 4 - 8 cm/kyr along the core and illustrates a significant increase during Termination 1. Carbonate content increases drastically from 16 ka due to increasing supplies of dolomitic material from dolostone rocks outcropping in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and associated with inputs from the Innuitian Ice Sheet margin. The magnetic properties demonstrate major changes during the deglaciation and especially during Heinrich event 1 (H1), the Younger Dryas (YD) and throughout the Holocene. Very low median destructive field (MDF) of the natural remanent magnetization (NRM) values are observed during the 11.5 - 12.6 ka (YD) and 14.8 - 16 (H1) ka intervals, and are reflecting coarser magnetic grains. Similarly, the kARM/kLF grain-size ratio shows coarser magnetic grain size during the H1 and YD intervals, and finer magnetic grains during the LGM (19 - 22 ka). During the LGM, "glacial flour" formed by mechanical grinding of rocks by ice sheets released finer magnetic grains from lateral source (e.g., Greenland continental shelf). On the contrary, during the YD and H1 periods, icebergs released coarser magnetic grains from a northern source (axial source). The Holocene is marked by the highest median destructive field (MDF) and ARM20mT/ARM0mT values of the core, indicating an increased proportion of finer magnetic grains during this interval. Together with the large increase in the silt fraction, these

  7. Early Holocene hydroclimate of Baffin Bay: Understanding the interplay between abrupt climate change events and ice sheet fluctuations

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    Corcoran, M. C.; Thomas, E. K.; Castañeda, I. S.; Briner, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the causes of ice sheet fluctuations resulting in sea level rise is essential in today's warming climate. In high-latitude ice-sheet-proximal environments such as Baffin Bay, studying both the cause and the rate of ice sheet variability during past abrupt climate change events aids in predictions. Past climate reconstructions are used to understand ice sheet responses to changes in temperature and precipitation. The 9,300 and 8,200 yr BP events are examples of abrupt climate change events in the Baffin Bay region during which there were multiple re-advances of the Greenland and Laurentide ice sheets. High-resolution (decadal-scale) hydroclimate variability near the ice sheet margins during these abrupt climate change events is still unknown. We will generate a decadal-scale record of early Holocene temperature and precipitation using leaf wax hydrogen isotopes, δ2Hwax, from a lake sediment archive on Baffin Island, western Baffin Bay, to better understand abrupt climate change in this region. Shifts in temperature and moisture source result in changes in environmental water δ2H, which in turn is reflected in δ2Hwax, allowing for past hydroclimate to be determined from these compound-specific isotopes. The combination of terrestrial and aquatic δ2Hwax is used to determine soil evaporation and is ultimately used to reconstruct moisture variability. We will compare our results with a previous analysis of δ2Hwax and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, a temperature and pH proxy, in lake sediment from western Greenland, eastern Baffin Bay, which indicates that cool and dry climate occurred in response to freshwater forcing events in the Labrador Sea. Reconstructing and comparing records on both the western and eastern sides of Baffin Bay during the early Holocene will allow for a spatial understanding of temperature and moisture balance changes during abrupt climate events, aiding in ice sheet modeling and predictions of future sea level

  8. The crustal structure of Ellesmere Island, Arctic Canada—teleseismic mapping across a remote intraplate orogenic belt

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiffer, Christian; Stephenson, Randell Alexander; Oakey, Gordon

    2016-01-01

    Ellesmere Island in Arctic Canada displays a complex geological evolution. The region was affected by two distinct orogenies, the Palaeozoic Ellesmerian orogeny (the Caledonian equivalent in Arctic Canada and Northern Greenland) and the Palaeogene Eurekan orogeny, related to the opening of Baffin...

  9. Episodic swell growth inferred from variable uplift of the Cape Verde hotspot islands

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    Ramalho, R.; Helffrich, G.; Cosca, M.; Vance, D.; Hoffmann, D.; Schmidt, D.N.

    2010-01-01

    On the Beagle voyage, Charles Darwin first noted the creation and subsidence of ocean islands, establishing in geology's infancy that island freeboard changes with time. Hotspot ocean islands have an obvious mechanism for freeboard change through the growth of the bathymetric anomaly, or swell, on which the islands rest. Models for swell development indicate that flexural, thermal or dynamic pressure contributions, as well as spreading of melt residue from the hotspot, can all contribute to island uplift. Here we test various models for swell development using the uplift histories for the islands of the Cape Verde hotspot, derived from isotopic dating of marine terraces and subaerial to submarine lava-flow morphologies. The island uplift histories, in conjunction with inter-island spacing, uplift rate and timing differences, rule out flexural, thermal or dynamic pressure contributions. We also find that uplift cannot be reconciled with models that advocate the spreading of melt residue in swell development unless swell growth is episodic. Instead, we infer from the uplift histories that two processes have acted to raise the islands during the past 6 Myr. During an initial phase, mantle processes acted to build the swell. Subsequently, magmatic intrusions at the island edifice caused 350 m of local uplift at the scale of individual islands. Finally, swell-wide uplift contributed a further 100 m of surface rise.

  10. Coastal Mapping for Baseline Geoscience Knowledge to Support Community Hazard Assessment and Sustainable Development, Eastern Baffin Island, Nunavut

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    Forbes, D. L.; Bell, T.; Campbell, D. C.; Cowan, B.; Deering, R. L.; Hatcher, S. V.; Hughes Clarke, J. E.; Irvine, M.; Manson, G. K.; Smith, I. R.; Edinger, E.

    2015-12-01

    Since 2012 we have carried out extensive multibeam bathymetric and backscatter surveys in coastal waters of eastern Baffin Island, supplemented by sub-bottom imaging and coring. Shore-zone surveys have been undertaken in proximity to the communities of Iqaluit and Qikiqtarjuaq, following earlier work in Clyde River. These support benthic habitat mapping, geological exploration, analysis of past and present sea-level trends, and assessment of coastal hazards relating to climate change and seabed instability. Outputs include a seamless topographic-bathymetric digital elevation model (DEM) of extensive boulder-strewn tidal flats in the large tidal-range setting at Iqaluit, supporting analysis of coastal flooding, wave run-up, and sea-ice impacts on a rapidly developing urban waterfront in the context of climate change. Seabed mapping of inner Frobisher Bay seaward of Iqaluit reveals a potential local tsunami hazard in widespread submarine slope failures, the triggers, magnitudes, and ages of which are the subject of ongoing research. In fjords of the Cumberland Peninsula, this project has mapped numerous submerged delta terraces at 19 to 45 m present water depth. These attest to an early postglacial submerged shoreline, displaced by glacial-isostatic adjustment. It rises linearly over a distance of 100 km east to west, where a submerged boulder barricade on a -16 m shoreline was discovered at a proposed port site in Broughton Channel near Qikiqtarjuaq. Palaeotopographic mapping using the multibeam data revealed an enclosed estuarine environment quite different from the present-day open passage swept by tidal currents. At Clyde River, combined seabed and onshore DEMs with geohazard mapping provided foundation data for community assessment and planning under a local knowledge co-production initiative. The geohazard work identified portions of the town-site more vulnerable to both coastal flooding and potential thaw subsidence, while the shallow delta terrace suggested a

  11. The numbers of ringed seals (Phoca hispida in Baffin Bay and associated waters

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    Michael C S Kingsley

    1998-06-01

    Full Text Available The size of the population of ringed seals (Phoca hispida inhabiting Baffin Bay and associated waters was estimated by two methods. An approximate model of the energetics of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus estimated an energetic need of about 16,000 MJ/bear per year. Modelled estimates of the energetic yield of a ringed seal population showed that a stable standing population of 140-170 ringed seals per bear would be needed to provide that much energy, assuming that all mortalities were due to polar bear predation. This result was sensitive to assumptions about the Field Metabolic Rate (FMR of the bears and the energetic yield of individual ringed seals, but less sensitive to assumptions about relative incidence of predation on different age classes of seal or the age structure of the polar bear population. Estimated sizes of polar bear populations in Baffin Bay and associated waters (total about 4,025, and of the standing population needed to support an estimated hunter kill of 100,000 yielded a population estimate of, very roughly, 1.2 million ringed seals. Estimates of ice areas and of the density of hauled out seals from aerial surveys were used to generate another approximate figure for the ringed seal population, which was about the same. The density of seals in the pack-ice area of Baffin Bay, which is imperfectly known, has a large influence on the latter estimate.

  12. Inferred vs realized patterns of gene flow: an analysis of population structure in the Andros Island Rock Iguana.

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    Colosimo, Giuliano; Knapp, Charles R; Wallace, Lisa E; Welch, Mark E

    2014-01-01

    Ecological data, the primary source of information on patterns and rates of migration, can be integrated with genetic data to more accurately describe the realized connectivity between geographically isolated demes. In this paper we implement this approach and discuss its implications for managing populations of the endangered Andros Island Rock Iguana, Cyclura cychlura cychlura. This iguana is endemic to Andros, a highly fragmented landmass of large islands and smaller cays. Field observations suggest that geographically isolated demes were panmictic due to high, inferred rates of gene flow. We expand on these observations using 16 polymorphic microsatellites to investigate the genetic structure and rates of gene flow from 188 Andros Iguanas collected across 23 island sites. Bayesian clustering of specimens assigned individuals to three distinct genotypic clusters. An analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) indicates that allele frequency differences are responsible for a significant portion of the genetic variance across the three defined clusters (Fst =  0.117, p<0.01). These clusters are associated with larger islands and satellite cays isolated by broad water channels with strong currents. These findings imply that broad water channels present greater obstacles to gene flow than was inferred from field observation alone. Additionally, rates of gene flow were indirectly estimated using BAYESASS 3.0. The proportion of individuals originating from within each identified cluster varied from 94.5 to 98.7%, providing further support for local isolation. Our assessment reveals a major disparity between inferred and realized gene flow. We discuss our results in a conservation perspective for species inhabiting highly fragmented landscapes.

  13. Inferred vs Realized Patterns of Gene Flow: An Analysis of Population Structure in the Andros Island Rock Iguana

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    Colosimo, Giuliano; Knapp, Charles R.; Wallace, Lisa E.; Welch, Mark E.

    2014-01-01

    Ecological data, the primary source of information on patterns and rates of migration, can be integrated with genetic data to more accurately describe the realized connectivity between geographically isolated demes. In this paper we implement this approach and discuss its implications for managing populations of the endangered Andros Island Rock Iguana, Cyclura cychlura cychlura. This iguana is endemic to Andros, a highly fragmented landmass of large islands and smaller cays. Field observations suggest that geographically isolated demes were panmictic due to high, inferred rates of gene flow. We expand on these observations using 16 polymorphic microsatellites to investigate the genetic structure and rates of gene flow from 188 Andros Iguanas collected across 23 island sites. Bayesian clustering of specimens assigned individuals to three distinct genotypic clusters. An analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) indicates that allele frequency differences are responsible for a significant portion of the genetic variance across the three defined clusters (Fst =  0.117, p0.01). These clusters are associated with larger islands and satellite cays isolated by broad water channels with strong currents. These findings imply that broad water channels present greater obstacles to gene flow than was inferred from field observation alone. Additionally, rates of gene flow were indirectly estimated using BAYESASS 3.0. The proportion of individuals originating from within each identified cluster varied from 94.5 to 98.7%, providing further support for local isolation. Our assessment reveals a major disparity between inferred and realized gene flow. We discuss our results in a conservation perspective for species inhabiting highly fragmented landscapes. PMID:25229344

  14. Inferred vs realized patterns of gene flow: an analysis of population structure in the Andros Island Rock Iguana.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuliano Colosimo

    Full Text Available Ecological data, the primary source of information on patterns and rates of migration, can be integrated with genetic data to more accurately describe the realized connectivity between geographically isolated demes. In this paper we implement this approach and discuss its implications for managing populations of the endangered Andros Island Rock Iguana, Cyclura cychlura cychlura. This iguana is endemic to Andros, a highly fragmented landmass of large islands and smaller cays. Field observations suggest that geographically isolated demes were panmictic due to high, inferred rates of gene flow. We expand on these observations using 16 polymorphic microsatellites to investigate the genetic structure and rates of gene flow from 188 Andros Iguanas collected across 23 island sites. Bayesian clustering of specimens assigned individuals to three distinct genotypic clusters. An analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA indicates that allele frequency differences are responsible for a significant portion of the genetic variance across the three defined clusters (Fst =  0.117, p<<0.01. These clusters are associated with larger islands and satellite cays isolated by broad water channels with strong currents. These findings imply that broad water channels present greater obstacles to gene flow than was inferred from field observation alone. Additionally, rates of gene flow were indirectly estimated using BAYESASS 3.0. The proportion of individuals originating from within each identified cluster varied from 94.5 to 98.7%, providing further support for local isolation. Our assessment reveals a major disparity between inferred and realized gene flow. We discuss our results in a conservation perspective for species inhabiting highly fragmented landscapes.

  15. Greenland coastal air temperatures linked to Baffin Bay and Greenland Sea ice conditions during autumn through regional blocking patterns

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    Ballinger, Thomas J.; Hanna, Edward; Hall, Richard J.; Miller, Jeffrey; Ribergaard, Mads H.; Høyer, Jacob L.

    2018-01-01

    Variations in sea ice freeze onset and regional sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in Baffin Bay and Greenland Sea are linked to autumn surface air temperatures (SATs) around coastal Greenland through 500 hPa blocking patterns, 1979-2014. We find strong, statistically significant correlations between Baffin Bay freeze onset and SSTs and SATs across the western and southernmost coastal areas, while weaker and fewer significant correlations are found between eastern SATs, SSTs, and freeze periods observed in the neighboring Greenland Sea. Autumn Greenland Blocking Index values and the incidence of meridional circulation patterns have increased over the modern sea ice monitoring era. Increased anticyclonic blocking patterns promote poleward transport of warm air from lower latitudes and local warm air advection onshore from ocean-atmosphere sensible heat exchange through ice-free or thin ice-covered seas bordering the coastal stations. Temperature composites by years of extreme late freeze conditions, occurring since 2006 in Baffin Bay, reveal positive monthly SAT departures that often exceed 1 standard deviation from the 1981-2010 climate normal over coastal areas that exhibit a similar spatial pattern as the peak correlations.

  16. New interpretations based on seismic and modelled well data and their implications for the tectonic evolution of the west Greenland continental margin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mcgregor, E.D.; Nielsen, S.B.; Stephenson, R.A.

    Davis Strait is situated between Baffin Island and Greenland and forms part of a sedimentary basin system, linking Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay, developed during Cretaceous and Palaeocene rifting that culminated in a brief period of sea-floor spreading in the late Palaeocene and Eocene. Seismic...... reflection profiles and exploration wells along the Greenland margin of Davis Strait have been analysed in order to elucidate uplift events affecting sedimentary basin development during the Cenozoic with a focus on postulated Neogene (tectonic) uplift affecting the west Greenland continental margin...... tectonic event. An interpretation in which the inferred onshore cooling is related to erosion of pre-existing topography is more consistent with our new results from the offshore region. These results will have important implications for other continental margins developed throughout the Atlantic...

  17. Survival of the primitive mantle reservoir?

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    Huang, S.; Jacobsen, S. B.; Mukhopadhyay, S.

    2010-12-01

    The high-3He lavas are thought to originate from a deep primitive mantle source that has not been much modified since the formation of Earth’s core. Comparison of 4He/3He in MORBs and plume lavas indicate that the plume sources must be a lower mantle feature, in agreement with most geophysical inferences. However, the lithophile element isotope systems of plume lavas are not primitive. The idea that the high-3He source is significantly less processed and more primitive than MORB source is clearly supported by mixing trends in plots of 4He/3He versus Sr, Nd and Pb isotope ratios, which have been extrapolated to an inferred 4He/3He of ~17,000 (~43x the atmospheric ratio), a mantle reservoir named PHEM (Primitive HElium Mantle). Slightly lower 4He/3He, ~15,000, were reported for Baffin Island picrites. Recently, Jackson et al. (2010) claimed that some Baffin Island and Greenland picrites with single-stage Pb model ages of ~4.5 Ga have low 4He/3He, and argued that “their source is the most ancient accessible reservoir in the Earth’s mantle, and it may be parental to all mantle reservoirs”. However, the available data are insufficient to make such a claim, and we suggest an alternative interpretation. Specially: 1. Four out of ten Baffin Island and Greenland picrites used by Jackson et al. (2010) have 4He/3He higher than average MORB value and all are far removed from the lowest measured value of 15,000. 2. Five Greenland picrites which cluster around the 4.50 Gyr geochron (Jackson et al., 2010) form a curved 207Pb*/206Pb*-4He/3He trend. This trend is best explained as a mixing line, implying that the single-stage Pb ages of these lavas are meaningless. 3. In a 207Pb*/206Pb*-4He/3He plot, Koolau lavas from Hawaii overlap with Baffin Island and Greenland picrites. If Baffin Island and Greenland picrites represent melts from the primitive mantle based on their Pb and He isotopes (Jackson et al., 2010), a similar argument can be applied to Koolau lavas. However, it

  18. The crustal structure of Ellesmere Island, Arctic Canada—teleseismic mapping across a remote intraplate orogenic belt

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    Schiffer, Christian; Stephenson, Randell; Oakey, Gordon N.; Jacobsen, Bo H.

    2016-03-01

    Ellesmere Island in Arctic Canada displays a complex geological evolution. The region was affected by two distinct orogenies, the Palaeozoic Ellesmerian orogeny (the Caledonian equivalent in Arctic Canada and Northern Greenland) and the Palaeogene Eurekan orogeny, related to the opening of Baffin Bay and the consequent convergence of the Greenland plate. The details of this complex evolution and the present-day deep structure are poorly constrained in this remote area and deep geophysical data are sparse. Receiver function analysis of seven temporary broad-band seismometers of the Ellesmere Island Lithosphere Experiment complemented by two permanent stations provides important data on the crustal velocity structure of Ellesmere Island. The crustal expression of the northernmost tectonic block of Ellesmere Island (˜82°-83°N), Pearya, which was accreted during the Ellesmerian orogeny, is similar to that at the southernmost part, which is part of the Precambrian Laurentian (North America-Greenland) craton. Both segments have thick crystalline crust (˜35-36 km) and comparable velocity-depth profiles. In contrast, crustal thickness in central Ellesmere Island decreases from ˜24-30 km in the Eurekan fold and thrust belt (˜79.7°-80.6°N) to ˜16-20 km in the Hazen Stable Block (HSB; ˜80.6°-81.4°N) and is covered by a thick succession of metasediments. A deep crustal root (˜48 km) at ˜79.6°N is interpreted as cratonic crust flexed beneath the Eurekan fold and thrust belt. The Carboniferous to Palaeogene sedimentary succession of the Sverdrup Basin is inferred to be up to 1-4 km thick, comparable to geologically-based estimates, near the western margin of the HSB.

  19. delta 18O variations in snow on the Devon Island ice cap, Northwest Territories, Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koerner, R.; Russel, R.D.

    1979-01-01

    A study of delta 18 O variations of snow samples taken on traverses across the Devon Island ice cap in June 1971, 1972, and 1973 has shown a difference between the accumulation conditions on the souteast and nortwest sides of the ice cap. On the souteast side there is an increasing depletion of 18 O in the snow with increasing elevation. This pattern is attibuted to the effect of orographic uplift of air masses moving over the ice cap from the southeast, which promotes condensation and precipitation due to adiabatic cooling. On the northwest side of the ice cap there is no evidence of any further depletion of 18 O in snow, neither with increasing distance from the possible moisture source in Baffin Bay to the southeast nor with increasing elevation if the air mass comes from the northwest. In this case condensation is due to isobaric cooling so that precipitation is generally from level cloud bases. The changes inferred for the isotopic composition of the water vapour as it rises up the southeast slope are found to be consistent with its depletion through precipitation under near-equilibrium conditions. It is calculated that approximately 30% of the moisture at sea level on the southeast side of the ice cap and 8% at the top of the ice cap are of local origin. Lower temporal and aerial variability of the delta values on the southeast side of the ice cap is attributed to dominance of the Baffin Bay low on that side Effecting consistency of storm conditions there. The delta values of ice in the ablation zone on the Sverdrup Glacier show the combined effect of ice movement from the accumulation to the ablation zone and climatic change during the period of movement from cold to warm and back to cold conditions again. (auth)

  20. Molecules in the mud: Combining ancient DNA and lipid biomarkers to reconstruct vegetation response to climate variability during the Last Interglacial and the Holocene on Baffin Island, Arctic Canada

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    Crump, S. E.; Sepúlveda, J.; Bunce, M.; Miller, G. H.

    2017-12-01

    Modern ecological studies are revealing that the "greening" of the Arctic, resulting from a poleward shift in woody vegetation ranges, is already underway. The increasing abundance of shrubs in tundra ecosystems plays an important role in the global climate system through multiple positive feedbacks, yet uncertainty in future predictions of terrestrial vegetation means that climate models are likely not capturing these feedbacks accurately. Recently developed molecular techniques for reconstructing past vegetation and climate allow for a closer look at the paleo-record in order to improve our understanding of tundra community responses to climate variability; our current research focus is to apply these tools to both Last Interglacial and Holocene warm times. Here we present initial results from a small lake on southern Baffin Island spanning the last 7.2 ka. We reconstruct climate with both bulk geochemical and biomarker proxies, primarily using biogenic silica and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) as temperature indicators. We assess shifts in plant community using multivariate analysis of sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) metabarcoding data. This combination of approaches reveals that the vegetation community has responded sensitively to early Holocene warmth, Neoglacial cooling, and possibly modern anthropogenic warming. To our knowledge, this represents the first combination of a quantitative, biomarker-based climate reconstruction with a sedaDNA-based paleoecological reconstruction, and offers a glimpse at the potential of these molecular techniques used in tandem.

  1. Identifying Challenges and Opportunities for Residents in Upernavik as Oil Companies are Making a First Entrance into Baffin Bay

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Merrild, Anne; Tejsner, Pelle

    2016-01-01

    The oil industry is making its first entrance offshore in Baffin Bay in a time where Inuit residents on the northwest coast of Greenland are struggling to uphold a traditional way of living. The operating oil companies are encouraged by the Government of Greenland to promote a high degree of loca...

  2. Indoor air quality and risk of severe lower respiratory tract infection in Inuit infants in Baffin Region, Nunavut

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kovesi, T. [Children' s Hospital of Easterrn Ontario, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    This paper discussed the indoor air quality in the houses of Inuit infants in Nunavut and the health implications. Inuit infants in the Baffin (Qikiqtani) Region of Nunavut have the highest reported rate in the world of severe lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) including bronchiolitis and pneumonia requiring hospitalization. This population also has a high rate of long-term complications after severe LRTI. The houses in the region are small and crowded and tend to be kept warm and humid. Although the homes are heated with low-sulphur Arctic diesel, there is no evidence of leakage from furnaces, as nitrogen dioxide concentrations are low. Houses are generally clean, with very low levels of dust mites and generally low levels of indoor mould. However, indoor smoking is prevalent. According to measured ventilation of indoor carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) concentrations, most houses have ventilation rates below recommended standards. A controlled trial of installing heat recovery ventilators (HRVs) in the homes of the 68 young Inuit children in 3 communities in the Baffin Region has shown that active HRVs can significantly reduce mean indoor CO{sub 2} concentrations and increase occupant comfort. Health outcomes are currently undergoing analysis. 11 refs.

  3. Impact of the large-scale Arctic circulation and the North Water Polynya on nutrient inventories in Baffin Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tremblay, Jean-Éric; Gratton, Yves; Carmack, Eddy C.; Payne, Christopher D.; Price, Neil M.

    2002-08-01

    The distributions of nitrate, phosphate, and silicate in northern Baffin Bay were determined from 90 bottle casts taken between April 11 and July 21, 1998. During late spring, low-salinity Arctic water entered northern Smith Sound and mixed with Baffin Bay water (BBW) within the North Water Polynya. The Arctic water originated from the Bering Sea and contained high concentrations of phosphate and silicate (referred to as silicate-rich Arctic water (SRAW)). The distribution of the two water masses was established using a new tracer, Siex, which showed moderate penetration of SRAW into Smith Sound during April and a very strong incursion in May and June, consistent with the intensification of southward current velocities. Biological depletion of macronutrients in BBW began in April and continued until nitrate was exhausted from the upper mixed layer in early June. Beneath the Polynya the deep waters (>450 m) showed a marked increase in nutrient concentration toward the bottom, which was most pronounced in the south and much stronger for silicate than nitrate and phosphate. The silicate enrichment was consistent with dissolution of diatom-derived biogenic silica in deep waters. The results indicate that the North Water acts as a silicate trap in which the biota differentially transports surface silicate to depth, thereby influencing local and downstream nutrient signatures.

  4. Biostratigraphic correlation of the western and eastern margins of the Labrador-Baffin Seaway and implications for the regional geology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrik Nøhr-Hansen

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available New analyses of the palynological assemblages in 13 offshore wells on the Canadian margin and six on the West Greenland Margin, in conjunction with onshore data, have led to a new biostratigraphic framework for the Cretaceous–Cenozoic strata of the Labrador Sea – Davis Strait – Baffin Bay (Labrador–Baffin Seaway region and the first broad biostratigraphic correlation of the Canadian and Greenland margins. This framework is based on 167 last occurrences and 18 local/regional peak/common-occurrence events for dinocysts, miospores, fungal spores and Azolla. Detailed biostratigraphic evidence has confirmed the following hiatuses: pre-Aptian in the Hopedale Basin; pre-Albian in the Saglek Basin; Albian–Turonian in some wells of the Hopedale Basin; Turonian–Santonian/Campanian in some areas; pre-Campanian and late Campanian – Thanetian on the Greenland Margin; late Maastrichtian and Danian in some wells of the Hopedale Basin and in the Saglek Basin; Selandian in part of the Hopedale Basin, in all the Saglek Basin wells and in two wells on the West Greenland Margin; late Ypresian and/or Lutetian on both sides; Oligocene to middle Miocene of considerable variability on both margins, with all of the Oligocene and the lower Miocene missing in all the West Greenland Margin wells; and middle to late Miocene on the western side. On the Canadian margin, the hiatuses can be partially matched with the five previously recognised regional unconformities; on the Greenland margin, however, the relationship to the five unconformities is more tenuous. Palynomorph assemblages show that most Aptian to Albian sediments were deposited in generally non-marine to marginal marine settings, interrupted by a short-lived shallow marine episode in the Aptian. A marine transgression started in the Cenomanian–Turonian and led to the most open-marine, oceanic conditions in the Campanian–Lutetian; shallowing probably started in the late Lutetian and continued into

  5. Inverted Apatite (U-Th)/He and Fission-track Dates from the Rae craton, Baffin Island, Canada and Implications for Apatite Radiation Damage-He Diffusivity Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ault, A. K.; Reiners, P. W.; Thomson, S. N.; Miller, G. H.

    2015-12-01

    Coupled apatite (U-Th)/He and fission-track (AFT) thermochronology data from the same sample can be used to decipher complex low temperature thermal histories and evaluate compatibility between these two methods. Existing apatite He damage-diffusivity models parameterize radiation damage annealing as fission-track annealing and yield inverted apatite He and AFT dates for samples with prolonged residence in the He partial retention zone. Apatite chemistry also impacts radiation damage and fission-track annealing, temperature sensitivity, and dates in both systems. We present inverted apatite He and AFT dates from the Rae craton, Baffin Island, Canada, that cannot be explained by apatite chemistry or existing damage-diffusivity and fission track models. Apatite He dates from 34 individual analyses from 6 samples range from 237 ± 44 Ma to 511 ± 25 Ma and collectively define a positive date-eU relationship. AFT dates from these same samples are 238 ± 15 Ma to 350 ± 20 Ma. These dates and associated track length data are inversely correlated and define the left segment of a boomerang diagram. Three of the six samples with 20-90 ppm eU apatite grains yield apatite He and AFT dates inverted by 300 million years. These samples have average apatite Cl chemistry of ≤0.02 wt.%, with no correlation between Cl content and Dpar. Thermal history simulations using geologic constraints, an apatite He radiation damage accumulation and annealing model, apatite He dates with the range of eU values, and AFT date and track length data, do not yield any viable time-temperature paths. Apatite He and AFT data modeled separately predict thermal histories with Paleozoic-Mesozoic peaks reheating temperatures differing by ≥15 °C. By modifying the parameter controlling damage annealing (Rmr0) from the canonical 0.83 to 0.5-0.6, forward models reproduce the apatite He date-eU correlation and AFT dates with a common thermal history. Results imply apatite radiation damage anneals at

  6. A Bioeconomic model of ocean acidification in the Baffin Bay/ Davis Strait Shrimp Fishery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaiser, Brooks; Ravn-Jonsen, Lars

    We examine the case of the shrimp fishery in Baffin Bay/Davis Straight for potential effects of Ocean Acidification (OA), including: 1. the overall productivity of the shrimp fishery, 2. the spatial spread of the shrimp fishery, 3. the quality of the shrimp brought to market, and hence price...... and indirect costs of OA by comparing optimal bio-economic use of the shrimp fishery without ecosystem productivity shifts due to OA and with shifts due to OA. The demand side includes product differentiation to account for price differentials from different quality levels. The supply side includes costs...... or indirectly as the energy requirements of reproduction and growth shift the characteristics of the shrimp throughout the lifecycle....

  7. THE BAFFIN BAY REGION DURING THE LAST INTERGLACIATION: EVIDENCE FROM NORTHWEST GREENLAND

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Funder, Svend Visby

    1989-01-01

    Coastal sections in the Thule area, northwest Greenland, provide a recordof last interglacial glacial and oceanographic events on the northern perimeter of Baffin Bay. The record is dated by a combination of thermoluminescence and 14C dating; local and regional correlation is provided by amino acid...... for the last nterglacial/glacial cycle was attained during Middle Sangamonian times, and a smaller advance took place in the Late Wisconsinan. In beween ice coverage was similar to the present, or smaller. The record provides a link between events in Arctic Canada and northern Greenland, and shows...... analyses of mollusc shells, and periods of penetration by warm subarctic water have been identified by their foraminifera and mollusc faunas. Subarclic water reached the area on three occasions: during the Holocene, and in the Early and Late Sangamonian. Maximum, although restricted, ice coverage...

  8. Biostratigraphic correlation of the western and eastern margins of the Labrador–Baffin Seaway and implications for the regional geology. Appendix 3

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrik Nøhr-Hansen

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available New analyses of the palynological assemblages in 13 offshore wells on the Canadian margin and six on the West Greenland Margin, in conjunction with onshore data, have led to a new biostratigraphic framework for the Cretaceous–Cenozoic strata of the Labrador Sea – Davis Strait – Baffin Bay (Labrador–Baffin Seaway region and the first broad biostratigraphic correlation of the Canadian and Greenland margins. This framework is based on 167 last occurrences and 18 local/regional peak/common-occurrence events for dinocysts, miospores, fungal spores and Azolla. Detailed biostratigraphic evidence has confirmed the following hiatuses: pre-Aptian in the Hopedale Basin; pre-Albian in the Saglek Basin; Albian–Turonian in some wells of the Hopedale Basin; Turonian–Santonian/Campanian in some areas; pre-Campanian and late Campanian – Thanetian on the Greenland Margin; late Maastrichtian and Danian in some wells of the Hopedale Basin and in the Saglek Basin; Selandian in part of the Hopedale Basin, in all the Saglek Basin wells and in two wells on the West Greenland Margin; late Ypresian and/or Lutetian on both sides; Oligocene to middle Miocene of considerable variability on both margins, with all of the Oligocene and the lower Miocene missing in all the West Greenland Margin wells; and middle to late Miocene on the western side. On the Canadian margin, the hiatuses can be partially matched with the five previously recognised regional unconformities; on the Greenland margin, however, the relationship to the five unconformities is more tenuous. Palynomorph assemblages show that most Aptian to Albian sediments were deposited in generally non-marine to marginal marine settings, interrupted by a short-lived shallow marine episode in the Aptian. A marine transgression started in the Cenomanian–Turonian and led to the most open-marine, oceanic conditions in the Campanian–Lutetian; shallowing probably started in the late Lutetian and continued into

  9. Biostratigraphic correlation of the western and eastern margins of the Labrador–Baffin Seaway and implications for the regional geology. Fig. 5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrik Nøhr-Hansen

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available New analyses of the palynological assemblages in 13 offshore wells on the Canadian margin and six on the West Greenland Margin, in conjunction with onshore data, have led to a new biostratigraphic framework for the Cretaceous–Cenozoic strata of the Labrador Sea – Davis Strait – Baffin Bay (Labrador–Baffin Seaway region and the first broad biostratigraphic correlation of the Canadian and Greenland margins. This framework is based on 167 last occurrences and 18 local/regional peak/common-occurrence events for dinocysts, miospores, fungal spores and Azolla. Detailed biostratigraphic evidence has confirmed the following hiatuses: pre-Aptian in the Hopedale Basin; pre-Albian in the Saglek Basin; Albian–Turonian in some wells of the Hopedale Basin; Turonian–Santonian/Campanian in some areas; pre-Campanian and late Campanian – Thanetian on the Greenland Margin; late Maastrichtian and Danian in some wells of the Hopedale Basin and in the Saglek Basin; Selandian in part of the Hopedale Basin, in all the Saglek Basin wells and in two wells on the West Greenland Margin; late Ypresian and/or Lutetian on both sides; Oligocene to middle Miocene of considerable variability on both margins, with all of the Oligocene and the lower Miocene missing in all the West Greenland Margin wells; and middle to late Miocene on the western side. On the Canadian margin, the hiatuses can be partially matched with the five previously recognised regional unconformities; on the Greenland margin, however, the relationship to the five unconformities is more tenuous. Palynomorph assemblages show that most Aptian to Albian sediments were deposited in generally non-marine to marginal marine settings, interrupted by a short-lived shallow marine episode in the Aptian. A marine transgression started in the Cenomanian–Turonian and led to the most open-marine, oceanic conditions in the Campanian–Lutetian; shallowing probably started in the late Lutetian and continued into

  10. The co-distribution of seabirds and their juvenile fish prey in Baffin Bay

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    LeBlanc, Mathieu; Mosbech, Anders; Fortier, Louis

    documented. We test the hypothesis that the abundance and biomass of juvenile fish, especially at the sea-ice edge, influence the distribution and composition of the seabird assemblage. Hydroacoustic data were recorded continuously during the CCGS Amundsen GreenEdge 2016 cruise in southern Baffin Bay, using...... cod (Boreogadus saida), the main pelagic forage fish, plays a key role by transferring energy from the zooplankton to the upper trophic levels, including seabirds. The interactions between fish and seabirds at the sea-ice edge, an environment increasingly common in the warming Arctic, are poorly...... a hull-mounted EK60 multi-frequency echosounder. Pelagic nets were deployed to document the fish assemblage and to validate the acoustic echoes. Seabird observations during transit periods and seabird sampling in Greenland waters were completed. This study will provide insights in the predator...

  11. Mercury and other trace elements in a pelagic Arctic marine food web (Northwater Polynya, Baffin Bay)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, Linda M.; Norstrom, Ross J.; Hobson, Keith A.; Muir, Derek C.G.; Backus, Sean; Fisk, Aaron T.

    2005-01-01

    Total mercury (THg), methylmercury (MeHg) and 22 other trace elements were measured in ice algae, three species of zooplankton, mixed zooplankton samples, Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida), ringed seals (Phoca hispida) and eight species of seabirds to examine the trophodynamics of these metals in an Arctic marine food web. All samples were collected in 1998 in the Northwater Polynya (NOW) located between Ellesmere Island and Greenland in Baffin Bay. THg and MeHg were found to biomagnify through the NOW food web, based on significant positive relationships between log THg and log MeHg concentrations vs. δ 15 N muscle and liver . The slope of these relationships for muscle THg and MeHg concentrations (slope = 0.197 and 0.223, respectively) were similar to those reported for other aquatic food webs. The food web behavior of THg and δ 15 N appears constant, regardless of trophic state (eutrophic vs. oligotrophic), latitude (Arctic vs. tropical) or salinity (marine vs. freshwater) of the ecosystem. Rb in both liver and muscle tissue and Zn in muscle tissue were also found to biomagnify through this food web, although at a rate that is approximately 25% of that of THg. A number of elements (Cd, Pb and Ni in muscle tissue and Cd and Li in seabird liver tissue) were found to decrease trophically through the food web, as indicated by significantly negative relationships with tissue-specific δ 15 N. A diverse group of metals (Ag, Ba, La, Li, Sb, Sr, U and V) were found to have higher concentrations in zooplankton than seabirds or marine mammals due to bioconcentration from seawater. The remaining metals (As, Co, Cu, Ga, Mn, Mo and Se in muscle tissue) showed no relationship with trophic position, as indicated by δ 15 N values, although As in liver tissue showed significant biomagnification in the seabird portion of the food web

  12. Volcanic sulfur dioxide index and volcanic explosivity index inferred from eruptive volume of volcanoes in Jeju Island, Korea: application to volcanic hazard mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Bokyun; Yun, Sung-Hyo

    2016-04-01

    Jeju Island located in the southwestern part of Korea Peninsula is a volcanic island composed of lavaflows, pyroclasts, and around 450 monogenetic volcanoes. The volcanic activity of the island commenced with phreatomagmatic eruptions under subaqueous condition ca. 1.8-2.0 Ma and lasted until ca. 1,000 year BP. For evaluating volcanic activity of the most recently erupted volcanoes with reported age, volcanic explosivity index (VEI) and volcanic sulfur dioxide index (VSI) of three volcanoes (Ilchulbong tuff cone, Songaksan tuff ring, and Biyangdo scoria cone) are inferred from their eruptive volumes. The quantity of eruptive materials such as tuff, lavaflow, scoria, and so on, is calculated using a model developed in Auckland Volcanic Field which has similar volcanic setting to the island. The eruptive volumes of them are 11,911,534 m3, 24,987,557 m3, and 9,652,025 m3, which correspond to VEI of 3, 3, and 2, respectively. According to the correlation between VEI and VSI, the average quantity of SO2 emission during an eruption with VEI of 3 is 2-8 × 103 kiloton considering that the island was formed under intraplate tectonic setting. Jeju Island was regarded as an extinct volcano, however, several studies have recently reported some volcanic eruption ages within 10,000 year BP owing to the development in age dating technique. Thus, the island is a dormant volcano potentially implying high probability to erupt again in the future. The volcanoes might have explosive eruptions (vulcanian to plinian) with the possibility that SO2 emitted by the eruption reaches stratosphere causing climate change due to backscattering incoming solar radiation, increase in cloud reflectivity, etc. Consequently, recommencement of volcanic eruption in the island is able to result in serious volcanic hazard and this study provides fundamental and important data for volcanic hazard mitigation of East Asia as well as the island. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: This research was supported by a grant [MPSS

  13. Vertical and horizontal distribution of zooplankton and polar cod in southern Baffin Bay (66-71°N) in September 2009

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjellerup, Sanne; Dünweber, Michael; Møller, Eva Friis

    2015-01-01

    Zooplankton are the link connecting primary producers to higher trophic levels, and knowing their distribution and community is important for predicting the distribution of predator species, like fish, seabirds, and marine mammals. However, data from open Arctic oceans are still scarce. In autumn...... fishes in the upper 500 m of southern Baffin Bay in September 2009. The zooplankton community was dominated by copepods (55 % of abundance in the upper 500 m), primarily of the genus Calanus. Other important zooplankton taxa included Limacina helicina, Chaetognatha, and Cirripedia nauplii...

  14. Cryosolic pedons from Northern Canada, Version 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Pedons included here represent Cryosolic (permafrost-affected) soils from across the Canadian North from Baffin Island in the east, to the lower Mackenzie Valley and...

  15. An Observational Array for High-Resolution, Year-Round Measurements of Volume, Freshwater, and Ice Flux Variability in Davis Strait: Cruise Report for R/V Knorr 179-05, 22 September-4 October 2004

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, Craig

    2004-01-01

    .... This 300-km-wide strait sits between Baffin Island and the west coast of Greenland and acts as the gateway for waters passing between the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the subpolar North Atlantic...

  16. Molecular phylogenetics of Micromeria (Lamiaceae) in the Canary Islands, diversification and inter-island colonization patterns inferred from nuclear genes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puppo, Pamela; Curto, Manuel; Gusmão-Guedes, Joana; Cochofel, Jaqueline; Pérez de Paz, Pedro Luis; Bräuchler, Christian; Meimberg, Harald

    2015-08-01

    Here we reconstruct the evolutionary history of Micromeria in the Canary Islands using eight nuclear markers. Our results show two centers of diversification for Micromeria, one in the eastern islands Gran Canaria and Lanzarote, the other in the western islands, Tenerife, La Palma and El Hierro. Suggested directions of inter-island colonization are the following: Gran Canaria to Lanzarote and La Gomera; Tenerife to La Palma (from the paleoisland of Teno), to El Hierro (from the younger, central part), and to La Gomera and Madeira (from the paleoislands). Colonization of La Gomera probably occurred several times from Gran Canaria and Tenerife. The taxonomic implications of these results are discussed. Incongruence among the different markers was evaluated and, using next generation sequencing, we investigated if this incongruence is due to gene duplication. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Capturing the Petermann Ice Island Flux With the CI2D3 Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, A. J.; Crocker, G.; Mueller, D.; Saper, R.; Desjardins, L.; Carrieres, T.

    2017-12-01

    The Petermann Glacier ice tongue lost >460 km2 of areal extent ( 38 Gt of mass) due to three large calving events in 2008, 2010 and 2012, as well as three previously unrecorded events in 2011 and 2012. Hundreds of ice islands subsequently drifted south between Hall Basin and Newfoundland's Grand Banks, but no systematic data collection or analysis has been conducted for the full flux of fragments prior to the present study. To accomplish this, the Canadian Ice Service's extensive RADARSAT-1 and -2 synthetic aperture radar image archive was mined to create the Canadian Ice Island Drift, Deterioration and Detection (CI2D3) Database. Over 15000 fragments have been digitized in GIS software from 3200 SAR scenes. A unique characteristic of the database is the inclusion of the lineage (i.e., connecting repeat observations or mother-daughter fragments) for all tracked fragments with areas >0.25 km2. This genealogical information was used to isolate ice islands that were about to fracture in order to assess the environmental conditions and morphological characteristics that influence this deterioration mechanism. Fracture counts showed a significant relationship with sea ice concentration (r = -0.56). However, variations in relative thickness played a large role in fracturing likelihood regardless of sea ice conditions. The exceedance probability of the daughter fragment length was calculated, as is often conducted for offshore industry hazard assessment. Grounded ice islands, which are hazards to seafloor installations and disturb benthic ecology, were recognized from their negligible drift speeds and two grounding hot-spots were identified along the Coburg and eastern Baffin island coasts. Petermann ice islands have been noted to drift along specific isobaths due to the influence of bathymetry on ocean currents. 50% of observations occurred between the 100 and 300 m isobaths, and smaller ice islands were observed more frequently in deeper regions. The CI2D3 Database can

  18. Key processes for Cheirolophus (Asteraceae diversification on oceanic islands inferred from AFLP data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Vitales

    Full Text Available The radiation of the genus Cheirolophus (Asteraceae in Macaronesia constitutes a spectacular case of rapid diversification on oceanic islands. Twenty species - nine of them included in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species - have been described to date inhabiting the Madeiran and Canarian archipelagos. A previous phylogenetic study revealed that the diversification of Cheirolophus in Macaronesia started less than 2 Ma. As a result of such an explosive speciation process, limited phylogenetic resolution was reported, mainly due to the low variability of the employed molecular markers. In the present study, we used highly polymorphic AFLP markers to i evaluate species' boundaries, ii infer their evolutionary relationships and iii investigate the patterns of genetic diversity in relation to the potential processes likely involved in the radiation of Cheirolophus. One hundred and seventy-two individuals representing all Macaronesian Cheirolophus species were analysed using 249 AFLP loci. Our results suggest that geographic isolation played an important role in this radiation process. This was likely driven by the combination of poor gene flow capacity and a good ability for sporadic long-distance colonisations. In addition, we also found some traces of introgression and incipient ecological adaptation, which could have further enhanced the extraordinary diversification of Cheirolophus in Macaronesia. Last, we hypothesize that current threat categories assigned to Macaronesian Cheirolophus species do not reflect their respective evolutionary relevance, so future evaluations of their conservation status should take into account the results presented here.

  19. Key processes for Cheirolophus (Asteraceae) diversification on oceanic islands inferred from AFLP data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitales, Daniel; García-Fernández, Alfredo; Pellicer, Jaume; Vallès, Joan; Santos-Guerra, Arnoldo; Cowan, Robyn S; Fay, Michael F; Hidalgo, Oriane; Garnatje, Teresa

    2014-01-01

    The radiation of the genus Cheirolophus (Asteraceae) in Macaronesia constitutes a spectacular case of rapid diversification on oceanic islands. Twenty species - nine of them included in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species - have been described to date inhabiting the Madeiran and Canarian archipelagos. A previous phylogenetic study revealed that the diversification of Cheirolophus in Macaronesia started less than 2 Ma. As a result of such an explosive speciation process, limited phylogenetic resolution was reported, mainly due to the low variability of the employed molecular markers. In the present study, we used highly polymorphic AFLP markers to i) evaluate species' boundaries, ii) infer their evolutionary relationships and iii) investigate the patterns of genetic diversity in relation to the potential processes likely involved in the radiation of Cheirolophus. One hundred and seventy-two individuals representing all Macaronesian Cheirolophus species were analysed using 249 AFLP loci. Our results suggest that geographic isolation played an important role in this radiation process. This was likely driven by the combination of poor gene flow capacity and a good ability for sporadic long-distance colonisations. In addition, we also found some traces of introgression and incipient ecological adaptation, which could have further enhanced the extraordinary diversification of Cheirolophus in Macaronesia. Last, we hypothesize that current threat categories assigned to Macaronesian Cheirolophus species do not reflect their respective evolutionary relevance, so future evaluations of their conservation status should take into account the results presented here.

  20. Temperature and salinity profile data collected by bottle on multiple cruises in the Baltic Sea, Baffin Bay, Davis Strait, the North Atlantic Ocean, and the North Sea from 02 January 1985 to 13 November 1989 (NODC Accession 0000056)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile and nutrients data were collected using bottle casts from DANA and other platforms in Baffin Sea, Baltic Sea, Davis Strait, North Sea, and North...

  1. Dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, temperature, salinity and other variables collected from discrete sample and profile observations using CTD, bottle and other instruments from the PIERRE RADISSON in the Baffin Bay from 1998-04-04 to 1998-07-21 (NODC Accession 0113915)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NODC Accession 0113915 includes biological, chemical, discrete sample, physical and profile data collected from PIERRE RADISSON in the Baffin Bay from 1998-04-04 to...

  2. "She Can Bother Me, and that's because She Cares": What Inuit Students Say about Teaching and Their Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewthwaite, Brian; McMillan, Barbara

    2010-01-01

    In this study, we have investigated, through interviews, conversations, questionnaires, and observations, perceptions of learning success of northern Qikiqtani (Baffin Island) of Nunavut Inuit middle years (grades 5-8) students and the classroom pedagogy influencing their success, in particular their learning in science. Most of the processes…

  3. Dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, temperature, salinity and other variables collected from discrete sample and profile observations using CTD, bottle and other instruments from the HEALY in the Baffin Bay and Lincoln Sea from 2003-07-21 to 2003-08-16 (NODC Accession 0113909)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NODC Accession 0113909 includes chemical, discrete sample, physical and profile data collected from HEALY in the Baffin Bay and Lincoln Sea from 2003-07-21 to...

  4. Spatial and temporal variability of seawater pCO2 within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Baffin Bay during the summer and autumn 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geilfus, N.-X.; Pind, M. L.; Else, B. G. T.; Galley, R. J.; Miller, L. A.; Thomas, H.; Gosselin, M.; Rysgaard, S.; Wang, F.; Papakyriakou, T. N.

    2018-03-01

    The partial pressure of CO2 in surface water (pCO2sw) measured within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) and Baffin Bay was highly variable with values ranging from strongly undersaturated (118 μatm) to slightly supersaturated (419 μatm) with respect to the atmospheric levels ( 386 μatm) during summer and autumn 2011. During summer, melting sea ice contributed to cold and fresh surface water and enhanced the ice-edge bloom, resulting in strong pCO2sw undersaturation. Coronation Gulf was the only area with supersaturated pCO2sw, likely due to warm CO2-enriched freshwater input from the Coppermine River. During autumn, the entire CAA (including Coronation Gulf) was undersaturated, despite generally increasing pCO2sw. Coronation Gulf was the one place where pCO2sw decreased, likely due to seasonal reduction in discharge from the Coppermine River and the decreasing sea surface temperature. The seasonal summer-to-autumn increase in pCO2sw across the archipelago is attributed in part to the continuous uptake of atmospheric CO2 through both summer and autumn and to the seasonal deepening of the surface mixed layer, bringing CO2-rich waters to the surface. These observations demonstrate how freshwater from sea ice melt and rivers affect pCO2sw differently. The general pCO2sw undersaturation during summer-autumn 2011 throughout the CAA and Baffin Bay give an estimated net oceanic sink for atmospheric CO2 over the study period of 11.4 mmol CO2 m-2 d-1, assuming no sea-air CO2 flux exchange across the sea-ice covered areas.

  5. Genetic affinities between the Yami tribe people of Orchid Island and the Philippine Islanders of the Batanes archipelago

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Yami and Ivatan islanders are Austronesian speakers from Orchid Island and the Batanes archipelago that are located between Taiwan and the Philippines. The paternal genealogies of the Yami tribe from 1962 monograph of Wei and Liu were compared with our dataset of non-recombining Y (NRY) chromosomes from the corresponding families. Then mitochondrial DNA polymorphism was also analyzed to determine the matrilineal relationships between Yami, Ivatan, and other East Asian populations. Results The family relationships inferred from the NRY Phylogeny suggested a low number of paternal founders and agreed with the genealogy of Wei and Liu (P Philippine people was closer than that between Yami and Ivatan, suggesting that the Orchid islanders were colonized separately by their nearest neighbors and bred in isolation. However a northward gene flow to Orchid Island from the Philippines was suspected as Yami and Ivatan peoples both speak Western Malayo-Polynesian languages which are not spoken in Taiwan. Actually, only very little gene flow was observed between Yami and Ivatan or between Yami and the Philippines as indicated by the sharing of mtDNA haplogroup B4a1a4 and one O1a1* Y-STR lineage. Conclusions The NRY and mtDNA genetic information among Yami tribe peoples fitted well the patrilocal society model proposed by Wei and Liu. In this proposal, there were likely few genetic exchanges among Yami and the Philippine people. Trading activities may have contributed to the diffusion of Malayo-Polynesian languages among them. Finally, artifacts dating 4,000 YBP, found on Orchid Island and indicating association with the Out of Taiwan hypothesis might be related to a pioneering stage of settlement, as most dating estimates inferred from DNA variation in our data set ranged between 100-3,000 YBP. PMID:21281460

  6. Dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, temperature, salinity and other variables collected from discrete sample and profile observations using CTD, bottle and other instruments from the PIERRE RADISSON in the Baffin Bay and Davis Strait from 1999-08-27 to 1999-10-10 (NODC Accession 0113986)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NODC Accession 0113986 includes chemical, discrete sample, physical and profile data collected from PIERRE RADISSON in the Baffin Bay and Davis Strait from...

  7. Population size and yield of Baffin Bay beluga (Delphinapterus leucas stocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart Innes

    2002-07-01

    Full Text Available A surplus production model within a Sampling, Importance Resampling (SIR Bayesian analysis was used to estimate stock sizes and yields of Baffin Bay belugas. The catch of belugas in West Greenland increased in 1968 and has remained well above sustainable rates. SIR analysis indicated a decline of about 50% between 1981 and 1994, with a credibility interval that included a previous estimate of 62%. The estimated stock sizes of belugas wintering off West Greenland in 1998 and 1999 were approximately 5,100 and 4,100 respectively and were not significantly different than an estimate based on aerial surveys combined for both years. Projected to 1999 this stock can sustain median landings of 109 whales with a total kill of about 155, based on posterior estimates of struck and lost plus under-reporting. The declining stock size index series did not provide sufficient information to estimate the potential maximum rate of population growth, the number of whales struck and lost, or the shape of the production curve with precision. Estimating these parameters requires an index time series with a marked step change in catch or a series with increasing stock sizes. The stock size estimate for the belugas wintering in the North Water in 1999 was approximately 14,800 but there is no information about the population biology of these whales. The estimated maximum sustainable yield (landed for the North Water stock was 317 belugas.

  8. Tectonic Model of Bali Island Inferred from GPS Data

    OpenAIRE

    Cecep Sulaeman; Sri Hidayati; Amalfi Omang; Imam Catur Priambodo

    2018-01-01

    DOI: 10.17014/ijog.5.1.81-91Seven periods of GPS campaign have been conducted for three years since March 2013 - October 2015 on fourteen GPS sites across Bali Island. The GAMIT/GLOBK 10.6 version was used to compute data with respect for thirteen reference sites of International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) 2008 surrounding Bali. The result shows that horizontal displacement varies between 1.93 and 22.53 mm/yr dominantly northeastward. Vertical displacement ranges at -184.34 to 33.79 m...

  9. Magnetic structure of Basse-Terre volcanic island (Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles) inferred from 3D inversion of aeromagnetic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnoud, Anne; Bouligand, Claire; Coutant, Olivier; Carlut, Julie

    2017-12-01

    We interpret aeromagnetic data to constrain the magnetic structure of the island of Basse-Terre, Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles. Aeromagnetic data are inverted in the spatial domain with a Bayesian formulation to retrieve the 3D distribution of rock magnetization intensity and polarity. The inversion is regularized using a correlation length and standard deviation for magnetization chosen to be consistent with results from paleomagnetic measurements on lava flow samples from Basse-Terre. The resulting 3D model of magnetization is consistent at the surface with observed polarities and at depth with a 2D model obtained from a Parker and Huestis (1974) inversion in the Fourier domain. The inferred magnetic structure is compared with the available geological information deduced from published geological, geomorphological and geochronological studies. In the southern part of the island, very low magnetization is observed around the Soufrière lava dome, last activity of the Grande-Découverte-Carmichaël-Soufrière composite volcano, in relation with a high level of hydrothermal alteration. High-magnetizations in the South-East might reflect the presence of massive lava flows and lava domes from the Madeleine vents and Monts Caraïbes. Medium magnetizations in the South-West coincide with the location of debris avalanche deposits associated with the collapse of the former Carmichaël volcano and might reflect less massive lava structure at depth. Using the volume of normal polarity in the South part of Basse-Terre recovered in our 3D model of rock magnetization, we estimate an average construction rate of ∼ 9.4 ×10-4 km3/yr during the Brunhes chron which provides new insights on the volcanic activity of La Soufrière volcano.

  10. Combined crustal-geological cross-section of Ellesmere Island

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stephenson, Randell Alexander; Schiffer, Christian; Oakey, Gordon

    are reported in detail in another presentation at this symposium (Schiffer et al.). Moho depth, a number of intracrustal horizons and sedimentary thicknesses can be inferred. Meanwhile, geological mapping on Ellesmere Island in the framework of BGR’s (Germany) CASE (“Circum-Arctic Structural Events”) programme...

  11. Organochlorine contaminants in seven species of Arctic seabirds from northern Baffin Bay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buckman, Andrea H.; Norstrom, Ross J.; Hobson, Keith A.; Karnovsky, Nina J.; Duffe, Jason; Fisk, Aaron T.

    2004-01-01

    Organochlorine contaminants (OCs) were determined in liver and fat of seven species of seabirds (Alle alle, Uria lomvia, Cepphus grylle, Rissa tridactyla, Pagophila eburnea, Larus hyperboreus, and Fulmaris glacialis) collected in May/June 1998 from the Northwater Polynya in northern Baffin Bay. OC concentrations ranged over an order of magnitude between seabird species and OC groups, with PCBs having the highest concentrations followed by DDT, chlordane, HCH and ClBz. Positive relationships between δ 15 N (estimator of trophic level) and OC concentrations (lipid basis) were found for all OC groups, showing that trophic position and biomagnification significantly influence OC concentrations in Arctic seabirds. Concentrations of a number of OCs in particular species (e.g., HCH in P. eburnean) were lower than expected based on δ 15 N and was attributed to biotransformation. P. eburnea and F. glacialis, which scavenge, and R. tridactyla, which migrate from the south, were consistently above the δ 15 N-OC regression providing evidence that these variables can elevate OC concentrations. Stable isotope measurements in muscle may not be suitable for identifying past scavenging events by seabirds. OC relative proportions were related to trophic position and phylogeny, showing that OC biotransformation varies between seabird groups. Trophic level, migration, scavenging and biotransformation all play important roles in the OCs found in Arctic seabirds. - Concentrations of organochlorides in high Arctic seabirds are influenced by trophic level, migration, scavenging and biotransformation

  12. Global patterns and drivers of phylogenetic structure in island floras

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weigelt, P.; Kissling, W.D.; Kisel, Y.; Fritz, S.A.; Karger, D.N.; Kessler, A.; Lehtonen, S.; Svenning, J.-C.; Kreft, H.

    2015-01-01

    Islands are ideal for investigating processes that shape species assemblages because they are isolated and have discrete boundaries. Quantifying phylogenetic assemblage structure allows inferences about these processes, in particular dispersal, environmental filtering and in-situ speciation. Here,

  13. Dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, temperature, salinity and other variables collected from discrete sample and profile observations using CTD, bottle and other instruments from the LOUIS S. ST. LAURENT in the Baffin Bay, Davis Strait and others from 1997-08-03 to 1997-08-18 (NODC Accession 0114432)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NODC Accession 0114432 includes chemical, discrete sample, physical and profile data collected from LOUIS S. ST. LAURENT in the Baffin Bay, Davis Strait, Hudson...

  14. Control of paleoshorelines by trench forebulge uplift, Loyalty Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, William R.

    2013-07-01

    Unlike most tropical Pacific islands, which lie along island arcs or hotspot chains, the Loyalty Islands between New Caledonia and Vanuatu owe their existence and morphology to the uplift of pre-existing atolls on the flexural forebulge of the New Hebrides Trench. The configuration and topography of each island is a function of distance from the crest of the uplifted forebulge. Both Maré and Lifou are fully emergent paleoatolls upon which ancient barrier reefs form highstanding annular ridges that enclose interior plateaus representing paleolagoon floors, whereas the partially emergent Ouvea paleoatoll rim flanks a drowned remnant lagoon. Emergent paleoshoreline features exposed by island uplift include paleoreef flats constructed as ancient fringing reefs built to past low tide levels and emergent tidal notches incised at past high tide levels. Present paleoshoreline elevations record uplift rates of the islands since last-interglacial and mid-Holocene highstands in global and regional sea levels, respectively, and paleoreef stratigraphy reflects net Quaternary island emergence. The empirical uplift rates vary in harmony with theoretical uplift rates inferred from the different positions of the islands in transit across the trench forebulge at the trench subduction rate. The Loyalty Islands provide a case study of island environments controlled primarily by neotectonics.

  15. Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, Michael J; Jackson, Jennifer A; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S; Briggs, Dirk R; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M

    2016-01-01

    We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual

  16. Genetically depauperate in the continent but rich in oceanic islands: Cistus monspeliensis (Cistaceae in the Canary Islands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Fernández-Mazuecos

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Population genetic theory holds that oceanic island populations are expected to have lower levels of genetic variation than their mainland counterparts, due to founder effect after island colonization from the continent. Cistus monspeliensis (Cistaceae is distributed in both the Canary Islands and the Mediterranean region. Numerous phylogenetic results obtained in the last years allow performing further phylogeographic analyses in Cistus. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We analyzed sequences from multiple plastid DNA regions in 47 populations of Cistus monspeliensis from the Canary Islands (21 populations and the Mediterranean basin (26 populations. The time-calibrated phylogeny and phylogeographic analyses yielded the following results: (1 a single, ancestral haplotype is distributed across the Mediterranean, whereas 10 haplotypes in the Canary Islands; (2 four haplotype lineages are present in the Canarian Islands; (3 multiple colonization events across the archipelago are inferred; (4 the earliest split of intraspecific lineages occurred in the Early to Middle Pleistocene (<930,000 years BP. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The contrasting pattern of cpDNA variation is best explained by genetic bottlenecks in the Mediterranean during Quaternary glaciations, while the Canarian archipelago acted as a refugium of high levels of genetic diversity. Active colonization across the Canarian islands is supported not only by the distribution of C. monspeliensis in five of the seven islands, but also by our phylogeographic reconstruction in which unrelated haplotypes are present on the same island. Widespread distribution of thermophilous habitats on every island, as those found throughout the Mediterranean, has likely been responsible for the successful colonization of C. monspeliensis, despite the absence of a long-distance dispersal mechanism. This is the first example of a plant species with higher genetic variation among oceanic island

  17. A comparison of controls on freshwater lens morphology of small carbonate and siliciclastic islands: examples from barrier islands in Florida, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, James C.; Kruse, Sarah E.

    2003-12-01

    The freshwater lens on small islands may easily be overexploited or polluted due to dense development combined with improper management. On small carbonate islands complexities in fresh groundwater distribution are most commonly driven by geologic heterogeneities and their attendant impact on permeability and effective recharge patterns. Siliciclastic islands (composed primarily of quartz sand and other silica-based minerals) have been less well studied, and fewer common patterns of lens development have emerged. On some siliciclastic islands correlations between geology and lens geometries are weak; on these islands the freshwater lens geometry may be largely determined by how vegetation and terrain elevation affect recharge. Other factors such as unequal sea level on opposite sides of an island and transient variability (natural island migration and climate variability) may also be locally significant. Two barrier islands in the northeast Gulf of Mexico fall into this category of siliciclastic islands. Relationships between lens morphology, geology, vegetation, terrain, and sea level and transient effects are documented on St George Island and Dog Island, FL. Patterns of fresh groundwater occurrence are deduced with electrical and electromagnetic geophysical methods. Although isolated cores show geologic layering that could potentially control freshwater lens development, ground penetrating radar and seismic surveys show no evidence of semi-continuous subhorizontal layering. Inferred lens thickness and geometry suggests that site geology plays a relatively minor role as a cause of complexity in lens formation. Lens geometry does appear to be related to terrain and vegetation variability, and further complicated by the continuous reforming of these islands by coastal processes and human development.

  18. Walruses in West Greenland: Where do they belong?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Born, E. W.; Andersen, L. W.; Dietz, R.

    ) transmitted for more than 3 months during which time she moved from CWG west to SE Baffin Island (SE BI). Hence, the studies supported a suspected connection between walruses in CWG and the HS-SE BI area. Future studies include a genetic comparison of biopsies from SE BI and CWG, and deployment of satellite...

  19. The Holocene history of Nares Strait: Transition from glacial bay to Arctic-Atlantic throughflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennings, Anne E.; Sheldon, Christina; Cronin, Thomas M.; Francus, Pierre; Stoner, Joseph; Andrews, John

    2011-01-01

    Retreat of glacier ice from Nares Strait and other straits in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago after the end of the last Ice Age initiated an important connection between the Arctic and the North Atlantic Oceans, allowing development of modern ocean circulation in Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea. As low-salinity, nutrient-rich Arctic Water began to enter Baffin Bay, it contributed to the Baffin and Labrador currents flowing southward. This enhanced freshwater inflow must have influenced the sea ice regime and likely is responsible for poor calcium carbonate preservation that characterizes the Baffin Island margin today. Sedimentologic and paleoceanographic data from radiocarbon-dated core HLY03-05GC, Hall Basin, northern Nares Strait, document the timing and paleoenvironments surrounding the retreat of waning ice sheets from Nares Strait and opening of this connection between the Arctic Ocean and Baffin Bay. Hall Basin was deglaciated soon before 10,300 cal BP (calibrated years before present) and records ice-distal sedimentation in a glacial bay facing the Arctic Ocean until about 9,000 cal BP. Atlantic Water was present in Hall Basin during deglaciation, suggesting that it may have promoted ice retreat. A transitional unit with high ice-rafted debris content records the opening of Nares Strait at approximately 9,000 cal BP. High productivity in Hall Basin between 9,000 and 6,000 cal BP reflects reduced sea ice cover and duration as well as throughflow of nutrient-rich Pacific Water. The later Holocene is poorly resolved in the core, but slow sedimentation rates and heavier carbon isotope values support an interpretation of increased sea ice cover and decreased productivity during the Neoglacial period.

  20. Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J Dunn

    Full Text Available We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae, chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum, chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum. The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a

  1. The north-east Baffin Bay region, offshore Greenland - a new frontier petroleum exploration region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gregersen, U. (Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen (Denmark))

    2008-07-15

    In recent years the Arctic has come into focus for hydrocarbon exploration, and areas offshore both West and East Greenland have been evaluated as promising frontier hydrocarbon provinces. Seven hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation licenses were awarded in 2007-2008 offshore the Disko-Nuussuaq region, and two more have been awarded in the open-door region offshore south-western Greenland. In 2007, an extensive amount of new seismic and aero-magnetic data was acquired by the TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company in the north-eastern Baffin Bay region. Geophysical mapping has been initiated by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) in the Melville Bugt region offshore North-West Greenland with the purpose of evaluating the hydrocarbon prospectivity. Initial interpretation of seismic and gravity data suggests the presence of deep sedimentary basins separated by structural highs. Geological information on source rock, reservoir rock and seal intervals from surrounding regions suggest that the Melville Bugt region is likely to have a significant petroleum potential. The study is based on public domain magnetic and gravity data, and all proprietary and public 2-D seismic data acquired before 2003. Seismic horizons from the 'seismic basement' to 'base Quaternary' are being interpreted regionally. Based on the seismic interpretation, a structural element map, depth-structure maps and isopach maps will be produced in order to assess the prospectivity of the Melville Bugt region. (au)

  2. Holocene Tree Line and Climate Change on the Queen Charlotte Islands, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellatt, Marlow G.; Mathewes, Rolf W.

    1997-07-01

    Palynological study of two subalpine ponds on the Queen Charlotte Islands reveals changes in tree line and climate during the Holocene. The findings agree with previous reconstructions, from nearby Louise Pond on the Queen Charlotte Islands, that suggest a warmer-than-present climate and higher-than-present tree lines in the early Holocene (ca. 9600-6600 14C yr B.P.). Basal ages at SC1 Pond and Shangri-La Bog indicate that the basins did not hold permanent water before 7200 14C yr B.P., consistent with a warmer and drier early Holocene previously inferred from Louise Pond. Pollen and plant macrofossils indicate the initial establishment of subalpine conditions by 6090 ± 90 14C yr B.P., similar to the 5790 ± 130 14C yr B.P. age for cooling inferred from Louise Pond. Conditions similar to present were established at SC1 Pond by 3460 ± 100 14C yr B.P., confirming the previous estimate of 3400 14C yr B.P. at Louise Pond. This 3400 14C yr B.P. vegetation shift on the Queen Charlotte Islands corresponds with the beginning of the Tiedemann glacial advance in the south-coastal mountains of British Columbia (ca. 3300 14C yr B.P.), the Peyto and Robson glacial advances between 3300 and 2800 14C yr B.P. in the Rocky Mountains, and climatic cooling inferred from palynological studies throughout southern British Columbia, northern Washington, and southeast Alaska. These findings confirm that changes in regional climate influenced changes in vegetation in coastal British Columbia.

  3. Tectonic Model of Bali Island Inferred from GPS Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecep Sulaeman

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available DOI: 10.17014/ijog.5.1.81-91Seven periods of GPS campaign have been conducted for three years since March 2013 - October 2015 on fourteen GPS sites across Bali Island. The GAMIT/GLOBK 10.6 version was used to compute data with respect for thirteen reference sites of International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF 2008 surrounding Bali. The result shows that horizontal displacement varies between 1.93 and 22.53 mm/yr dominantly northeastward. Vertical displacement ranges at -184.34 to 33.79 mm/yr. The result of modeling using Coulomb 3.3 version indicates the deformation in Bali was mostly contributed by subduction at the southern part, West and East Flores Back-Arc Thrust at the north, Lombok Strait Fault and a fault at the eastern coast of Bali with the estimation maximum magnitude of 7.1, 6.6, 6.8, 5.8, and 5.2, respectively.

  4. Changes in the landsnail fauna of Lady Alice Island, northeastern New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brook, F.J.

    1999-01-01

    A small coastal dunefield on Lady Alice Island off northern New Zealand incorporates a stratigraphic record of the historic period and much if not all of the period of prehistoric Maori occupation of the island. Fossil landsnail faunas from the dunefield are closely comparable with those from present-day dune shrubland habitats and differ from contiguous hillslope forest and shrubland faunas. Three of the landsnail species are no longer extant on Lady Alice Island. Two are large species (Amborhytida tarangensis, Placostylus hongii) that are inferred to have become extinct following the introduction of kiore (Rattus exulans) to the island. Failure to find any snail shells with breakages characteristic of rat predation suggests that kiore may not have established on the island until the early 19th century. The other smaller species of landsnail (Phrixgnathus paralaomiformis) probably became extinct in the late 19th or early 20th century as a result of habitat disturbance from fires and cattle. (author). 56 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs

  5. Partial pressure (or fugacity) of carbon dioxide and other variables collected from Surface underway observations using Carbon dioxide (CO2) gas analyzer, Shower head chamber equilibrator for autonomous carbon dioxide (CO2) measurement and other instruments from NUKA ARCTICA in the Baffin Bay, Davis Strait and others from 2013-02-01 to 2013-12-31 (NCEI Accession 0157395)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NCEI Accession 0157395 includes Surface underway, chemical and physical data collected from NUKA ARCTICA in the Baffin Bay, Davis Strait, Kattegat, The Sound, Great...

  6. Speciation on oceanic islands: rapid adaptive divergence vs. cryptic speciation in a Guadalupe Island songbird (Aves: Junco).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleixandre, Pau; Hernández Montoya, Julio; Milá, Borja

    2013-01-01

    The evolutionary divergence of island populations, and in particular the tempo and relative importance of neutral and selective factors, is of central interest to the study of speciation. The rate of phenotypic evolution upon island colonization can vary greatly among taxa, and cases of convergent evolution can further confound the inference of correct evolutionary histories. Given the potential lability of phenotypic characters, molecular dating of insular lineages analyzed in a phylogenetic framework provides a critical tool to test hypotheses of phenotypic divergence since colonization. The Guadalupe junco is the only insular form of the polymorphic dark-eyed junco (Junco hyemalis), and shares eye and plumage color with continental morphs, yet presents an enlarged bill and reduced body size. Here we use variation in mtDNA sequence, morphological traits and song variables to test whether the Guadalupe junco evolved rapidly following a recent colonization by a mainland form of the dark-eyed junco, or instead represents a well-differentiated "cryptic" lineage adapted to the insular environment through long-term isolation, with plumage coloration a result of evolutionary convergence. We found high mtDNA divergence of the island lineage with respect to both continental J. hyemalis and J. phaeonotus, representing a history of isolation of about 600,000 years. The island lineage was also significantly differentiated in morphological and male song variables. Moreover, and contrary to predictions regarding diversity loss on small oceanic islands, we document relatively high levels of both haplotypic and song-unit diversity on Guadalupe Island despite long-term isolation in a very small geographic area. In contrast to prevailing taxonomy, the Guadalupe junco is an old, well-differentiated evolutionary lineage, whose similarity to mainland juncos in plumage and eye color is due to evolutionary convergence. Our findings confirm the role of remote islands in driving

  7. At the end of the line: independent overwater colonizations of the Solomon Islands by a hyperdiverse trans-Wallacean lizard lineage (Cyrtodactylus: Gekkota: Squamata)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Paul M.; Travers, Scott L; Richmond, Jonathan Q.; Pikacha, Patrick; Fisher, Robert N.

    2018-01-01

    The islands of East Melanesia have generated key insights into speciation processes and community assembly. However, when and how these islands began to form, emerge and accumulate endemic taxa remains poorly understood. Here, we show that two divergent lineages within the world’s most diverse genus of geckos (Cyrtodactylus) occur in the Solomon Islands. One large-bodied species is nested within a radiation from far eastern New Guinea, with inferred colonization, spread and diversification since the late Miocene. In contrast, a newly sampled and relatively small species with a restricted distribution on Guadalcanal Island is a relict that diverged from extant congeners around the early to mid-Miocene. Similar Miocene divergences from extralimital relatives have been inferred for other endemic bird, bat and lizard lineages in East Melanesia. In contrast, across all lineages (including divergent relictual lineages), there is little evidence for endemic in situ diversification within East Melanesia predating the Pliocene (especially in the Solomon Islands). While some East Melanesian endemic lineages may have origins on progenitor islands during the Miocene or even earlier, current evidence suggests the in situ diversification and assembly of extant biological communities commenced around the end of the Miocene.

  8. Thermal structure and flow patterns around Seychelles group of Islands (Indian Ocean) during austral autumn

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vethamony, P.; RameshBabu, V.; RameshKumar, M.R.

    Properties of thermal structure in the upper 750 m around the Seychelles group of islands in the Indian Ocean, based on Expendable Bathythermograph (XBT) data collected in March 1984, are presented along with the inferred flow patterns...

  9. Pliocene-Quaternary history of Futuna island, south Vanuatu, southwest Pacific

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neef, G.; McCulloch, M.T.

    2001-01-01

    Uranium-series ages from thermal ionisation mass spectrometry are reported here for the raised coral reefs of Futuna Island, which lies adjacent to the eastern margin of the backarc Futuna Trough in south Vanuatu, southwest Pacific. U-series ages from coral from the lowest raised reef indicate that its upper part is most likely to be ca 210 ka, whereas the most elevated raised reef has a likely age of ca 520 ka (range 600-440 ka). The inferred Pliocene-Quaternary history for Futuna Island and the adjacent Futuna Trough is: (i) formation of the Pliocene - Early Quaternary basaltic-andesite cone in a southeast part of the Vanuatu Island Arc; (ii) inception of the Futuna Trough (adjacent to the west margin of Futuna Island) since 1.8Ma; (iii) subsequent uplift of the volcanic cone above sea-level caused ∼ 500 m of its upper part to be removed by marine erosion; (iv) the island then subsided and at least 160 m of limestone was deposited on the truncated cone; and (v) during the period 520 ka to ca 210 ka seven fringing reefs formed at the margin of the cone as the island was uplifted. Since ca 210 ka Futuna further subsided and, as a result, the post ca 210 ka history of the island is obscure. Copyright (2001) Geological Society of Australia

  10. Environmental controls on the 2H/1H values of terrestrial leaf waxes in the eastern Canadian Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanahan, Timothy M.; Hughen, Konrad A.; Ampel, Linda; Sauer, Peter E.; Fornace, Kyrstin

    2013-10-01

    The hydrogen isotope composition of plant waxes preserved in lacustrine sediments is a potentially valuable tool for reconstructing paleoenvironmental changes in the Arctic. However, in contrast to the mid- and low-latitudes, significantly less effort has been directed towards understanding the factors controlling D/H fractionation in high latitude plant waxes and the impact of these processes on the interpretation of sedimentary leaf wax δD records. To better understand these processes, we examined the D/H ratios of long chain fatty acids in lake surface sediments spanning a temperature and precipitation gradient on Baffin Island in the eastern Canadian Arctic. D/H ratios of plant waxes increase with increasing temperature and aridity, with values ranging from -240‰ to -160‰ over the study area. Apparent fractionation factors between n-alkanoic acids in Arctic lake sediments and precipitation(εFA-ppt) are less negative than those of mid-latitude lakes and modern plants by 25‰ to 65‰, consistent with n-alkane data from modern Arctic plants (Yang et al., 2011). Furthermore, εFA-ppt values from Arctic lakes become systematically more positive with increasing evaporation, in contrast to mid-latitude sites, which show little to no change in fractionation with aridity. These data are consistent with enhanced water loss and isotope fractionation at higher latitude in the Arctic summer, when continuous sunlight supports increased daily photosynthesis. The dominant control on δDFA variations on Baffin Island is temperature. However, changing εFA-ppt result in steeper δDFA-temperature relationships than observed for modern precipitation. The application of this δDFA-based paleotemperature calibration to existing δDFA records from Baffin Island produces much more realistic changes in late Holocene temperature and highlights the importance of these effects in influencing the interpretation of Arctic δDFA records. A better understanding of the controls on

  11. Inception of the Laurentide Ice Sheet using asynchronous coupling of a regional atmospheric model and an ice model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birch, L.; Cronin, T.; Tziperman, E.

    2017-12-01

    The climate over the past 0.8 million years has been dominated by ice ages. Ice sheets have grown about every 100 kyrs, starting from warm interglacials, until they spanned continents. State-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) have difficulty simulating glacial inception, or the transition of Earth's climate from an interglacial to a glacial state. It has been suggested that this failure may be related to their poorly resolved local mountain topography, due to their coarse spatial resolution. We examine this idea as well as the possible role of ice flow dynamics missing in GCMs. We investigate the growth of the Laurentide Ice Sheet at 115 kya by focusing on the mountain glaciers of Canada's Baffin Island, where geologic evidence indicates the last inception occurred. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) in a regional, cloud-resolving configuration with resolved mountain terrain to explore how quickly Baffin Island could become glaciated with the favorable yet realizable conditions of 115 kya insolation, cool summers, and wet winters. Using the model-derived mountain glacier mass balance, we force an ice sheet model based on the shallow-ice approximation, capturing the ice flow that may be critical to the spread of ice sheets away from mountain ice caps. The ice sheet model calculates the surface area newly covered by ice and the change in the ice surface elevation, which we then use to run WRF again. Through this type of iterated asynchronous coupling, we investigate how the regional climate responds to both larger areas of ice cover and changes in ice surface elevation. In addition, we use the NOAH-MP Land model to characterize the importance of land processes, like refreezing. We find that initial ice growth on the Penny Ice Cap causes regional cooling that increases the accumulation on the Barnes Ice Cap. We investigate how ice and topography changes on Baffin Island may impact both the regional climate and the large-scale circulation.

  12. Magnetic-Island Contraction and Particle Acceleration in Simulated Eruptive Solar Flares

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guidoni, S. E.; Devore, C. R.; Karpen, J. T.; Lynch, B. J.

    2016-01-01

    The mechanism that accelerates particles to the energies required to produce the observed high-energy impulsive emission in solar flares is not well understood. Drake et al. proposed a mechanism for accelerating electrons in contracting magnetic islands formed by kinetic reconnection in multi-layered current sheets (CSs). We apply these ideas to sunward-moving flux ropes (2.5D magnetic islands) formed during fast reconnection in a simulated eruptive flare. A simple analytic model is used to calculate the energy gain of particles orbiting the field lines of the contracting magnetic islands in our ultrahigh-resolution 2.5D numerical simulation. We find that the estimated energy gains in a single island range up to a factor of five. This is higher than that found by Drake et al. for islands in the terrestrial magnetosphere and at the heliopause, due to strong plasma compression that occurs at the flare CS. In order to increase their energy by two orders of magnitude and plausibly account for the observed high-energy flare emission, the electrons must visit multiple contracting islands. This mechanism should produce sporadic emission because island formation is intermittent. Moreover, a large number of particles could be accelerated in each magneto hydro dynamic-scale island, which may explain the inferred rates of energetic-electron production in flares. We conclude that island contraction in the flare CS is a promising candidate for electron acceleration in solar eruptions.

  13. Temporal variability of mass transport across Canary Islands Channels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marrero-Díaz, Ángeles; Rodríguez-Santana, Ángel; José Machín, Francisco; García-Weil, Luis; Sangrà, Pablo; Vélez-Belchí, Pedro; Fraile-Nuez, Eugenio

    2014-05-01

    The equatorward flowing Canary Current (CC) is the main feature of the circulation in the Canary Islands region. The CC flow perturbation by the Canary Islands originate the Canary Eddy Corridor which is the major pathway for long lived eddies in the subtropical North Atlantic (Sangrà et al., 2009, DSR). Therefore the variability of the CC passing through the Canary Archipelago will have both local and regional importance. Past studies on the CC variability trough the Canary Islands point out a clearly seasonal variability (Fraile-Nuez et al, 2010 (JGR); Hernández-Guerra et al, 2002 (DSR)). However those studies where focused on the eastern islands channels missing the variability through the western island channels which are the main source of long lived eddies. In order to fill this gap from November 2012 until September 2013 we conducted trimonthly surveys crossing the whole islands channels using opportunity ships (Naviera Armas Ferries). XBT and XCTD where launched along the cross channels transects. Additionally a closed box circling the Archipelago was performed on October 2013 as part of the cruise RAPROCAN-2013 (IEO) using also XBT and XCTD. Dynamical variables where derived inferring salinity from S(T,p) analytical relationships for the region updated with new XCTD data. High resolution, vertical sections of temperature, potential density, geostrophic velocity and transport where obtained. Our preliminary results suggest that the CC suffer a noticeable acceleration in those islands channels where eddy shedding is more frequent. They also indicate a clearly seasonal variability of the flows passing the islands channels. With this regard we observed significant differences on the obtained seasonal variability with respect the cited past studies on the eastern islands channel (Lanzarote / Fuerteventura - Africa coast). This work was co-funded by Canary Government (TRAMIC project: PROID20100092) and the European Union (FEDER).

  14. Speciation on oceanic islands: rapid adaptive divergence vs. cryptic speciation in a Guadalupe Island songbird (Aves: Junco.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pau Aleixandre

    Full Text Available The evolutionary divergence of island populations, and in particular the tempo and relative importance of neutral and selective factors, is of central interest to the study of speciation. The rate of phenotypic evolution upon island colonization can vary greatly among taxa, and cases of convergent evolution can further confound the inference of correct evolutionary histories. Given the potential lability of phenotypic characters, molecular dating of insular lineages analyzed in a phylogenetic framework provides a critical tool to test hypotheses of phenotypic divergence since colonization. The Guadalupe junco is the only insular form of the polymorphic dark-eyed junco (Junco hyemalis, and shares eye and plumage color with continental morphs, yet presents an enlarged bill and reduced body size. Here we use variation in mtDNA sequence, morphological traits and song variables to test whether the Guadalupe junco evolved rapidly following a recent colonization by a mainland form of the dark-eyed junco, or instead represents a well-differentiated "cryptic" lineage adapted to the insular environment through long-term isolation, with plumage coloration a result of evolutionary convergence. We found high mtDNA divergence of the island lineage with respect to both continental J. hyemalis and J. phaeonotus, representing a history of isolation of about 600,000 years. The island lineage was also significantly differentiated in morphological and male song variables. Moreover, and contrary to predictions regarding diversity loss on small oceanic islands, we document relatively high levels of both haplotypic and song-unit diversity on Guadalupe Island despite long-term isolation in a very small geographic area. In contrast to prevailing taxonomy, the Guadalupe junco is an old, well-differentiated evolutionary lineage, whose similarity to mainland juncos in plumage and eye color is due to evolutionary convergence. Our findings confirm the role of remote islands

  15. Vertical and lateral ordering of Ge islands grown on Si(001): theory and experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montalenti, F; Marzegalli, A; Capellini, G; Seta, M De; Miglio, Leo

    2007-01-01

    A set of recent results concerning lateral and vertical ordering of Ge islands grown on Si(001) is reviewed. Experimental data generated by chemical vapour deposition and analysed by atomic force microscopy and photoelectron spectroscopy are compared with computer simulations and modelling based on atomistic approaches and continuum theory. In particular, we show that it is possible to probe experimentally the detailed strain field generated by buried Ge islands at the surface of the Si capping layer. The observed arrangement of small Ge islands grown over the capping layer is demonstrated to be very close to the one predicted by a simple model where the local chemical potential is inferred from the strain field at the atomic scale, as given by Tersoff-potential molecular dynamics simulations. Moreover, we review recent experimental evidence for lateral ordering, triggered by partial Si capping, in the first layer of Ge islands on Si(001). Theoretical support is given by showing that when two islands lie in close proximity the elastic field is likely to generate a flow of atoms leading to an effective gliding motion along opposite directions of both islands, eventually stopped by the presence of further neighbouring islands

  16. Spatial and temporal variability of seawater pCO2 within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Baffin Bay during the summer and autumn 2011

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geilfus, N.-X.; Pind, M. L.; Else, B. G. T.

    2018-01-01

    The partial pressure of CO2 in surface water (pCO2sw) measured within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) and Baffin Bay was highly variable with values ranging from strongly undersaturated (118 μatm) to slightly supersaturated (419 μatm) with respect to the atmospheric levels ( 386 μatm) during...... summer and autumn 2011. During summer, melting sea ice contributed to cold and fresh surface water and enhanced the ice-edge bloom, resulting in strong pCO2sw undersaturation. Coronation Gulf was the only area with supersaturated pCO2sw, likely due to warm CO2-enriched freshwater input from...... the Coppermine River. During autumn, the entire CAA (including Coronation Gulf) was undersaturated, despite generally increasing pCO2sw. Coronation Gulf was the one place where pCO2sw decreased, likely due to seasonal reduction in discharge from the Coppermine River and the decreasing sea surface temperature...

  17. Efficient fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithms for incorporating expert knowledge in parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajabi, Mohammad Mahdi; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad

    2016-05-01

    Bayesian inference has traditionally been conceived as the proper framework for the formal incorporation of expert knowledge in parameter estimation of groundwater models. However, conventional Bayesian inference is incapable of taking into account the imprecision essentially embedded in expert provided information. In order to solve this problem, a number of extensions to conventional Bayesian inference have been introduced in recent years. One of these extensions is 'fuzzy Bayesian inference' which is the result of integrating fuzzy techniques into Bayesian statistics. Fuzzy Bayesian inference has a number of desirable features which makes it an attractive approach for incorporating expert knowledge in the parameter estimation process of groundwater models: (1) it is well adapted to the nature of expert provided information, (2) it allows to distinguishably model both uncertainty and imprecision, and (3) it presents a framework for fusing expert provided information regarding the various inputs of the Bayesian inference algorithm. However an important obstacle in employing fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater numerical modeling applications is the computational burden, as the required number of numerical model simulations often becomes extremely exhaustive and often computationally infeasible. In this paper, a novel approach of accelerating the fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithm is proposed which is based on using approximate posterior distributions derived from surrogate modeling, as a screening tool in the computations. The proposed approach is first applied to a synthetic test case of seawater intrusion (SWI) in a coastal aquifer. It is shown that for this synthetic test case, the proposed approach decreases the number of required numerical simulations by an order of magnitude. Then the proposed approach is applied to a real-world test case involving three-dimensional numerical modeling of SWI in Kish Island, located in the Persian Gulf. An expert

  18. Divergent evolutionary processes associated with colonization of offshore islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínková, Natália; Barnett, Ross; Cucchi, Thomas; Struchen, Rahel; Pascal, Marine; Pascal, Michel; Fischer, Martin C; Higham, Thomas; Brace, Selina; Ho, Simon Y W; Quéré, Jean-Pierre; O'Higgins, Paul; Excoffier, Laurent; Heckel, Gerald; Hoelzel, A Rus; Dobney, Keith M; Searle, Jeremy B

    2013-10-01

    Oceanic islands have been a test ground for evolutionary theory, but here, we focus on the possibilities for evolutionary study created by offshore islands. These can be colonized through various means and by a wide range of species, including those with low dispersal capabilities. We use morphology, modern and ancient sequences of cytochrome b (cytb) and microsatellite genotypes to examine colonization history and evolutionary change associated with occupation of the Orkney archipelago by the common vole (Microtus arvalis), a species found in continental Europe but not in Britain. Among possible colonization scenarios, our results are most consistent with human introduction at least 5100 bp (confirmed by radiocarbon dating). We used approximate Bayesian computation of population history to infer the coast of Belgium as the possible source and estimated the evolutionary timescale using a Bayesian coalescent approach. We showed substantial morphological divergence of the island populations, including a size increase presumably driven by selection and reduced microsatellite variation likely reflecting founder events and genetic drift. More surprisingly, our results suggest that a recent and widespread cytb replacement event in the continental source area purged cytb variation there, whereas the ancestral diversity is largely retained in the colonized islands as a genetic 'ark'. The replacement event in the continental M. arvalis was probably triggered by anthropogenic causes (land-use change). Our studies illustrate that small offshore islands can act as field laboratories for studying various evolutionary processes over relatively short timescales, informing about the mainland source area as well as the island. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Detailed mtDNA genotypes permit a reassessment of the settlement and population structure of the Andaman Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barik, S S; Sahani, R; Prasad, B V R; Endicott, P; Metspalu, M; Sarkar, B N; Bhattacharya, S; Annapoorna, P C H; Sreenath, J; Sun, D; Sanchez, J J; Ho, S Y W; Chandrasekar, A; Rao, V R

    2008-05-01

    The population genetics of the Indian subcontinent is central to understanding early human prehistory due to its strategic location on the proposed corridor of human movement from Africa to Australia during the late Pleistocene. Previous genetic research using mtDNA has emphasized the relative isolation of the late Pleistocene colonizers, and the physically isolated Andaman Island populations of Island South-East Asia remain the source of claims supporting an early split between the populations that formed the patchy settlement pattern along the coast of the Indian Ocean. Using whole-genome sequencing, combined with multiplexed SNP typing, this study investigates the deep structure of mtDNA haplogroups M31 and M32 in India and the Andaman Islands. The identification of a so far unnoticed rare polymorphism shared between these two lineages suggests that they are actually sister groups within a single haplogroup, M31'32. The enhanced resolution of M31 allows for the inference of a more recent colonization of the Andaman Islands than previously suggested, but cannot reject the very early peopling scenario. We further demonstrate a widespread overlap of mtDNA and cultural markers between the two major language groups of the Andaman archipelago. Given the "completeness" of the genealogy based on whole genome sequences, and the multiple scenarios for the peopling of the Andaman Islands sustained by this inferred genealogy, our study hints that further mtDNA based phylogeographic studies are unlikely to unequivocally support any one of these possibilities. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  20. Analysis of Island Formation Due to RMPs in D3D Plasmas Using SIESTA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirshman, Steven; Shafer, Morgan; Seal, Sudip; Canik, John

    2015-11-01

    By varying the initial helical perturbation amplitude of Resonant Magnetic Perturbations (RMPs) applied to a Doublet III-D (DIII-D) plasma, a variety of meta-stable equilibrium are scanned using the SIESTA MHD equilibrium code. It is found that increasing the perturbation strength at the dominant m =2 resonant surface leads to lower MHD energies and significant increases in the equilibrium island widths at the m =2 (and sidebands) surfaces. Island overlap eventually leads to stochastic magnetic fields which correlate well with the experimentally inferred field line structure. The magnitude and spatial phase (around associated rational surfaces) of resonant (shielding) components of the parallel current is shown to be correlated with the magnetic island topology. Work supported by U.S. DOE under Contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with UT-Battelle, LLC.

  1. Resource utilisation by deep-sea megabenthos in the Canadian High Arctic (Baffin Bay and Parry Channel)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourgeois, Solveig; Witte, Ursula; Harrison, Ailish M.; Makela, Anni; Kazanidis, Georgios; Archambault, Philippe

    2016-04-01

    Ongoing climate change in the Arctic is causing drastic alteration of the Arctic marine ecosystem functioning, such as shifts in patterns of primary production, and modifying the present tight pelagic-benthic coupling. Subsequently benthic communities, which rely upon organic matter produced in the top layers of the Ocean, will also be affected by these changes. The benthic megafaunal communities play a significant role in ecological processes and ecosystem functioning (i.e. organic matter recycling, bioturbation, food source for the higher trophic levels…). Yet, information is scarce regarding the main food sources for dominant benthic organisms, and therefore the impact of the ongoing changes is difficult to assess. The goal of this study is to investigate the preferential feeding of different carbon sources by megabenthic organisms in the Canadian High Arctic and to identify environmental drivers which explain the observed trends. In summer 2013, benthic megafauna was collected at 9 stations spread along latitudinal (58 to 81°N) and longitudinal (62 to 114°W) transects in the Baffin Bay and Parry Channel, respectively. Carbon and nitrogen bulk stable isotope analyses (δ13C and δ15N) were performed on several species divided into groups according to their feeding type. This study highlights distinct trends in δ13C values of benthic organisms suggesting the importance of both phytoplankton and ice algae as carbon sources for megafauna in the Canadian High Arctic. The importance of physical and biological parameters as drivers of food web structure will be furthermore discussed.

  2. An analysis of the Three Mile Island accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brooks, G.L.; Siddal, E.

    1980-09-01

    Starting with a systematic analysis of the chain of events that took place during the Three Mile Island accident, the authors assess the significance of the four distinct phases of the accident. Inferences that can be drawn with respect to the safety of CANDU reactors are discussed. A rational reaction to the accident is suggested, and several factors are shown not to have played an important part, contrary to public impressions. The authors point out that over-reaction to the accident could detract from public safety. The Canadian response to the accident is discussed. (auth)

  3. Multiple independent colonization of the Canary Islands by the winged grasshopper genus Sphingonotus Fieber, 1852.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husemann, Martin; Deppermann, Jana; Hochkirch, Axel

    2014-12-01

    Volcanic archipelagos represent ideal systems to study processes of colonization, differentiation and speciation. The Canary Islands are one of the best studied archipelagos, being composed of seven main islands with a well-known geological history. Most taxa have colonized these islands stepwise from the African or Iberian mainland from east to west, following their geological origin as well as the predominating wind direction and ocean currents. Furthermore, within-island radiations have been reported for several taxa. The grasshopper genus Sphingonotus is species-rich and occurs with nine fully winged species on the Canary Islands, seven of which are endemic to single or few islands. We inferred a phylogeny of these species and their North African and Iberian relatives based upon sequences of three mitochondrial genes and one nuclear gene of 136 specimens. Surprisingly, our results suggest that almost all Sphingonotus species colonized the archipelago independently from the mainland and nearly no inter-island colonization occurred. Despite their strong flight capabilities, only one pair of endemic species are closely related (S. sublaevis from Gran Canary and S. pachecoi from Lanzarote). Moreover, no within-island speciation events were detected. We hypothesize that passive wind dispersal from the African mainland was the main driver of the colonization process and that most Sphingonotus species are not able to cover inter-island distances by active flight. This, together with strong intrageneric niche overlap might explain the lack of within-island speciation in this taxon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Stratigraphy, sedimentology and eruptive mechanisms in the tuff cone of El Golfo (Lanzarote, Canary Islands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedrazzi, Dario; Martí, Joan; Geyer, Adelina

    2013-07-01

    The tuff cone of El Golfo on the western coast of Lanzarote (Canary Islands) is a typical hydrovolcanic edifice. Along with other edifices of the same age, it was constructed along a fracture oriented NEE-SWW that coincides with the main structural trend of recent volcanism in this part of the island. We conducted a detailed stratigraphic study of the succession of deposits present in this tuff cone and here interpret them in light of the depositional processes and eruptive dynamics that we were able to infer. The eruptive sequence is represented by a succession of pyroclastic deposits, most of which were emplaced by flow, plus a number of air-fall deposits and ballistic blocks and bombs. We distinguished five different eruptive/depositional stages on the basis of differences in inferred current flow regimes and fragmentation efficiencies represented by the resulting deposits; the different stages may be related to variations in the explosive energy. Eight lithofacies were identified based on sedimentary discontinuities, grain size, components, variations in primary laminations and bedforms. The volcanic edifice was constructed very rapidly around the vent, and this is inferred to have controlled the amount of water that was able to enter the eruption conduit. The sedimentological characteristics of the deposits and the nature and distribution of palagonitic alteration suggest that most of the pyroclastic succession in El Golfo was deposited in a subaerial environment. This type of hydrovolcanic explosive activity is common in the coastal zones of Lanzarote and the other Canary Islands and is one of the main potential hazards that could threaten the human population of this archipelago. Detailed studies of these hydrovolcanic eruptions such as the one we present here can help volcanologists understand the hazards that this type of eruption can generate and provide essential information for undertaking risk assessment in similar volcanic environments.

  5. Recombination rate variation in mice from an isolated island.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Richard J; Gray, Melissa M; Parmenter, Michelle D; Broman, Karl W; Payseur, Bret A

    2017-01-01

    Recombination rate is a heritable trait that varies among individuals. Despite the major impact of recombination rate on patterns of genetic diversity and the efficacy of selection, natural variation in this phenotype remains poorly characterized. We present a comparison of genetic maps, sampling 1212 meioses, from a unique population of wild house mice (Mus musculus domesticus) that recently colonized remote Gough Island. Crosses to a mainland reference strain (WSB/EiJ) reveal pervasive variation in recombination rate among Gough Island mice, including subchromosomal intervals spanning up to 28% of the genome. In spite of this high level of polymorphism, the genomewide recombination rate does not significantly vary. In general, we find that recombination rate varies more when measured in smaller genomic intervals. Using the current standard genetic map of the laboratory mouse to polarize intervals with divergent recombination rates, we infer that the majority of evolutionary change occurred in one of the two tested lines of Gough Island mice. Our results confirm that natural populations harbour a high level of recombination rate polymorphism and highlight the disparities in recombination rate evolution across genomic scales. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Human responses to Middle Holocene climate change on California's Channel Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennett, Douglas J.; Kennett, James P.; Erlandson, Jon M.; Cannariato, Kevin G.

    2007-02-01

    High-resolution archaeological and paleoenvironmental records from California's Channel Islands provide a unique opportunity to examine potential relationships between climatically induced environmental changes and prehistoric human behavioral responses. Available climate records in western North America (7-3.8 ka) indicate a severe dry interval between 6.3 and 4.8 ka embedded within a generally warm and dry Middle Holocene. Very dry conditions in western North America between 6.3 and 4.8 ka correlate with cold to moderate sea-surface temperatures (SST) along the southern California Coast evident in Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Core 893A/B (Santa Barbara Basin). An episode of inferred high marine productivity between 6.3 and 5.8 ka corresponds with the coldest estimated SSTs of the Middle Holocene, otherwise marked by warm/low productivity marine conditions (7.5-3.8 ka). The impact of this severe aridity on humans was different between the northern and southern Channel Islands, apparently related to degree of island isolation, size and productivity of islands relative to population, fresh water availability, and on-going social relationships between island and continental populations. Northern Channel Islanders seem to have been largely unaffected by this severe arid phase. In contrast, cultural changes on the southern Channel Islands were likely influenced by the climatically induced environmental changes. We suggest that productive marine conditions coupled with a dry terrestrial climate between 6.3 and 5.8 ka stimulated early village development and intensified fishing on the more remote southern islands. Contact with people on the adjacent southern California Coast increased during this time with increased participation in a down-the-line trade network extending into the western Great Basin and central Oregon. Genetic similarities between Middle Holocene burial populations on the southern Channel Islands and modern California Uto-Aztecan populations suggest

  7. A possible submarine mud volcano from the southeast Baffin Island shelf

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Woodworth-Lynas, C. M. T

    1983-01-01

    .... The mechanism of formulation may be by the extrusion of a pressurized mixture of unconsolidated sediments, oil, gas and conate water escaping to the seafloor by upward movement along a contact...

  8. (De)coupled zircon metamictization, radiation damage, and He diffusivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ault, A. K.; Guenthner, W.; Reiners, P. W.; Moser, A. C.; Miller, G. H.; Refsnider, K. A.

    2017-12-01

    We develop and apply a new protocol for targeting crystals for the zircon (U-Th)/He (He) thermochronometry to maximize effective U (eU) and corresponding closure temperature variability to develop zircon He date-eU correlations observed in some datasets. Our approach exploits visual proxies for radiation damage accumulation (metamictization) during zircon selection. We show that by purposefully targeting a spectrum of zircon textures from pristine to metamict grains, it is possible to generate broad eU variation in suites of zircon from a single sample and zircon He date-eU-metamictization trends that can be exploited to resolve increasingly complex thermal histories. We present plane light photographs, eU concentration, and zircon He results from 59 individual zircons from nine crystalline rock samples. Six of the nine samples come from exposed Proterozoic granitoids on SE Baffin Island, Canada; Boulder Creek, CO; Sandia Mountains, NM; and Mecca Hills, CA. We report data from three Archean Baffin samples to compare with the Proterozoic Baffin sample date-eU-metamictization trend. In each Proterozoic sample, target zircons display a spectrum of metamictization from pristine, transparent crystals to purple-brown, translucent grains. Progressive loss of transparency and increase in discoloration consistently corresponds to an increase in eU in all samples. Individual zircon eU varies from 89-1885 ppm and, within each sample, the total eU spread is 538 ppm to 1374 ppm. For any given eU value, the Archean zircon appear comparatively more metamict than the Proterozoic Baffin grains and samples collectively define a 1681 ppm range in eU, with more restrictive intrasample eU spreads (199-1120 ppm). Proterozoic samples from Baffin, Sandia, and Front Range yield negative zircon He date-eU correlations with intrasample date ranges of 90-783 Ma. Increasing eU and younger dates correspond with increasing metamictization. In contrast, all three Proterozoic Mecca Hills samples

  9. Applicability of T-S algorithms to the Canary Islands region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Marrero-Díaz

    2001-07-01

    Full Text Available The high cost of oceanographic cruises often makes it advisable to use opportunity vessels for simple measurements, such as determining the temperature of the water column with expandable bathythermographs (XBT. In this work we examine the goodness and reliability of a method aimed at obtaining the maximum possible information from XBT data, and we apply it to the Canary Islands region. It consists in calculating analytic relations between temperature and salinity from historical conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD data for the region, which are then used to hindcast/forecast the salinity and density distribution, as well as the distribution of other inferred quantities such as velocity. A hindcasting is carried out using direct independent temperature measurements obtained from a hydrographic cruise south of the island of Gran Canaria. At depths greater than 100-150 m the results show good agreement with the calculations obtained from CTD in situ data.

  10. Entropic Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caticha, Ariel

    2011-03-01

    In this tutorial we review the essential arguments behing entropic inference. We focus on the epistemological notion of information and its relation to the Bayesian beliefs of rational agents. The problem of updating from a prior to a posterior probability distribution is tackled through an eliminative induction process that singles out the logarithmic relative entropy as the unique tool for inference. The resulting method of Maximum relative Entropy (ME), includes as special cases both MaxEnt and Bayes' rule, and therefore unifies the two themes of these workshops—the Maximum Entropy and the Bayesian methods—into a single general inference scheme.

  11. SVC control enhancement applying self-learning fuzzy algorithm for islanded microgrid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossam Gabbar

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Maintaining voltage stability, within acceptable levels, for islanded Microgrids (MGs is a challenge due to limited exchange power between generation and loads. This paper proposes an algorithm to enhance the dynamic performance of islanded MGs in presence of load disturbance using Static VAR Compensator (SVC with Fuzzy Model Reference Learning Controller (FMRLC. The proposed algorithm compensates MG nonlinearity via fuzzy membership functions and inference mechanism imbedded in both controller and inverse model. Hence, MG keeps the desired performance as required at any operating condition. Furthermore, the self-learning capability of the proposed control algorithm compensates for grid parameter’s variation even with inadequate information about load dynamics. A reference model was designed to reject bus voltage disturbance with achievable performance by the proposed fuzzy controller. Three simulations scenarios have been presented to investigate effectiveness of proposed control algorithm in improving steady-state and transient performance of islanded MGs. The first scenario conducted without SVC, second conducted with SVC using PID controller and third conducted using FMRLC algorithm. A comparison for results shows ability of proposed control algorithm to enhance disturbance rejection due to learning process.

  12. A small cohort of Island Southeast Asian women founded Madagascar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Murray P; Nelson, Michael G; Tumonggor, Meryanne K; Ricaut, François-X; Sudoyo, Herawati

    2012-07-22

    The settlement of Madagascar is one of the most unusual, and least understood, episodes in human prehistory. Madagascar was one of the last landmasses to be reached by people, and despite the island's location just off the east coast of Africa, evidence from genetics, language and culture all attests that it was settled jointly by Africans, and more surprisingly, Indonesians. Nevertheless, extremely little is known about the settlement process itself. Here, we report broad geographical screening of Malagasy and Indonesian genetic variation, from which we infer a statistically robust coalescent model of the island's initial settlement. Maximum-likelihood estimates favour a scenario in which Madagascar was settled approximately 1200 years ago by a very small group of women (approx. 30), most of Indonesian descent (approx. 93%). This highly restricted founding population raises the possibility that Madagascar was settled not as a large-scale planned colonization event from Indonesia, but rather through a small, perhaps even unintended, transoceanic crossing.

  13. More than one kind of inference: re-examining what's learned in feature inference and classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweller, Naomi; Hayes, Brett K

    2010-08-01

    Three studies examined how task demands that impact on attention to typical or atypical category features shape the category representations formed through classification learning and inference learning. During training categories were learned via exemplar classification or by inferring missing exemplar features. In the latter condition inferences were made about missing typical features alone (typical feature inference) or about both missing typical and atypical features (mixed feature inference). Classification and mixed feature inference led to the incorporation of typical and atypical features into category representations, with both kinds of features influencing inferences about familiar (Experiments 1 and 2) and novel (Experiment 3) test items. Those in the typical inference condition focused primarily on typical features. Together with formal modelling, these results challenge previous accounts that have characterized inference learning as producing a focus on typical category features. The results show that two different kinds of inference learning are possible and that these are subserved by different kinds of category representations.

  14. Influence of climatic oscillations in the archaeological sequence on Marajo island, Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meggers, B.J.; Danon, J.; Ferreira, J.; Valladas, H.

    1982-01-01

    Thermoluminescence dates define the durations of five successive archaeological complexes or phases on the island of Marajo, providing a chronology extending from about 34000 B.P. to European contact. A hiatus of 930 + - 300 years coincides with a period of aridity between about 2700 and 2000 B.P. inferred from pollen sequences in various parts of the neo-tropical lowlands, suggesting that Marajo may have been abandoned by pottery-making groups during this interval because of subsistence stress. (Author) [pt

  15. Geographical, Temporal and Environmental Determinants of Bryophyte Species Richness in the Macaronesian Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aranda, Silvia C.; Gabriel, Rosalina; Borges, Paulo A. V.; Santos, Ana M. C.; de Azevedo, Eduardo Brito; Patiño, Jairo; Hortal, Joaquín; Lobo, Jorge M.

    2014-01-01

    Species richness on oceanic islands has been related to a series of ecological factors including island size and isolation (i.e. the Equilibrium Model of Island Biogeography, EMIB), habitat diversity, climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation) and more recently island ontogeny (i.e. the General Dynamic Model of oceanic island biogeography, GDM). Here we evaluate the relationship of these factors with the diversity of bryophytes in the Macaronesian region (Azores, Madeira, Canary Islands and Cape Verde). The predictive power of EMIB, habitat diversity, climate and the GDM on total bryophyte richness, as well as moss and liverwort richness (the two dominant bryophyte groups), was evaluated through ordinary least squares regressions. After choosing the best subset of variables using inference statistics, we used partial regression analyses to identify the independent and shared effects of each model. The variables included within each model were similar for mosses and liverworts, with orographic mist layer being one of the most important predictors of richness. Models combining climate with either the GDM or habitat diversity explained most of richness variation (up to 91%). There was a high portion of shared variance between all pairwise combinations of factors in mosses, while in liverworts around half of the variability in species richness was accounted for exclusively by climate. Our results suggest that the effects of climate and habitat are strong and prevalent in this region, while geographical factors have limited influence on Macaronesian bryophyte diversity. Although climate is of great importance for liverwort richness, in mosses its effect is similar to or, at least, indiscernible from the effect of habitat diversity and, strikingly, the effect of island ontogeny. These results indicate that for highly vagile taxa on oceanic islands, the dispersal process may be less important for successful colonization than the availability of suitable ecological

  16. Perceptual inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggelopoulos, Nikolaos C

    2015-08-01

    Perceptual inference refers to the ability to infer sensory stimuli from predictions that result from internal neural representations built through prior experience. Methods of Bayesian statistical inference and decision theory model cognition adequately by using error sensing either in guiding action or in "generative" models that predict the sensory information. In this framework, perception can be seen as a process qualitatively distinct from sensation, a process of information evaluation using previously acquired and stored representations (memories) that is guided by sensory feedback. The stored representations can be utilised as internal models of sensory stimuli enabling long term associations, for example in operant conditioning. Evidence for perceptual inference is contributed by such phenomena as the cortical co-localisation of object perception with object memory, the response invariance in the responses of some neurons to variations in the stimulus, as well as from situations in which perception can be dissociated from sensation. In the context of perceptual inference, sensory areas of the cerebral cortex that have been facilitated by a priming signal may be regarded as comparators in a closed feedback loop, similar to the better known motor reflexes in the sensorimotor system. The adult cerebral cortex can be regarded as similar to a servomechanism, in using sensory feedback to correct internal models, producing predictions of the outside world on the basis of past experience. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. SEMANTIC PATCH INFERENCE

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper

    2009-01-01

    Collateral evolution the problem of updating several library-using programs in response to API changes in the used library. In this dissertation we address the issue of understanding collateral evolutions by automatically inferring a high-level specification of the changes evident in a given set ...... specifications inferred by spdiff in Linux are shown. We find that the inferred specifications concisely capture the actual collateral evolution performed in the examples....

  18. Multimodel inference and adaptive management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehme, S.E.; Powell, L.A.; Allen, Craig R.

    2011-01-01

    Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study’s inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference.

  19. A Comparison of the Crustal Deformation Predicted by Glacial Isostatic Adjustment to Seismicity in the Baffin Region of Northern Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, T. S.; Schamehorn, T.; Bent, A. L.; Allen, T. I.; Mulder, T.; Simon, K.

    2016-12-01

    The horizontal crustal strain-rates induced by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in northern Canada and western Greenland region are compared to the spatial pattern of seismicity. For the comparison, an updated seismicity catalogue was created from the 2010 version of the NRCan Seismic Hazard Earthquake Epicentre File (SHEEF2010) catalogue and the Greenland Ice Sheet Monitoring Network (GLISN) catalogue of the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS). Crustal motion rates were computed with the Innu/Laur16 ice-sheet history and the VM5a viscosity profile (Simon et al., 2015; 2016). This GIA model optimizes the fit to relative sea-level and vertical crustal motion measurements around Hudson Bay and in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). A region in Baffin Bay with historically high seismicity, including the 1933 M 7.4 and the 1934 and 1945 M 6.5 earthquakes, features high predicted GIA strain-rates. Elsewhere, agreement is not strong, with zones of seismicity occurring where predicted horizontal crustal strain-rates are small and large crustal strain-rates predicted where earthquake occurrence is muted. For example, large compressional crustal strain-rates are predicted beneath seismically quiescent portions of the Greenland ice sheet. Similarly, large predicted extensional strain-rates occur around southern Hudson Bay and the Foxe Basin, which are also regions of relative seismic quiescence. Additional factors to be considered include the orientation of the background stress field, relative to the predicted stress changes, and potential pre-existing zones of lithospheric weakness.

  20. Heat Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's Heat Island Effect Site provides information on heat islands, their impacts, mitigation strategies, related research, a directory of heat island reduction initiatives in U.S. communities, and EPA's Heat Island Reduction Program.

  1. 230Th/234U activity ratio in the products from Izu-Bonin island-arc volcanoes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurihara, Y.; Takahashi, M.; Sato, J.

    2006-01-01

    Magma genesis at subduction zone is generally inferred to be induced by the partial melting of the mantle wedge by the addition of fluid derived from the subducting slab. Uranium-series disequilibria in the volcanic products are a useful tracer to understand various magma processes. Young island-arc volcanic rocks showed the characteristic feature of excess 234 U over 230 Th. Observation was carried out on the radioactive disequilibrium between 234 U and 230 Th in the volcanic products from Asama volcano and Izu-Mariana island-arc volcanoes. Thorium and Uranium in the volcanic rock samples were separated by anion-exchange resin and purified by TEVA·Spec. and UTEVA·Spec. resins, respectively. Purified Th and U were electrodeposited onto a stainless steel planchet for α-ray counting. U-234 and 230 Th in volcanic rock samples were determined by isotope dilution method coupled with α-ray spectrometry. 230 Th/ 234 U activity ratio in the volcanic products from Asama volcano and Izu-Bonin island-arc volcanoes were in radioactive disequilibrium, enriched in 234 U relative to 230 Th, which is often observed for volcanic products from young island-arc volcanic products. (author)

  2. Magnetotelluric imaging of the resurgent caldera on the island of Ischia (southern Italy): inferences for its structure and activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Giuseppe, M. G.; Troiano, A.; Carlino, S.

    2017-12-01

    The island of Ischia (located in the Bay of Naples, Italy) represents a peculiar case of a well-exposed caldera that has experienced a large (>800 m) and rapid resurgence, accompanied by volcanic activity. What drives the resurgence of calderas is a crucial issue to investigate, because this process is associated with potential eruptions and high risk to people living within and around such large active volcanic systems. To improve the knowledge of volcano-tectonic processes affecting the caldera of Ischia, electromagnetic imaging of the structures associated with its resurgence was performed and integrated with available geological information. A magnetotelluric (MT) survey of the island was carried out along two main profiles through the central-western sector, providing an electrical resistivity map to a depth of 3 km. These resistivity cross sections allowed us to identify the presence of a very shallow magmatic intrusion, possibly a laccolith, at a depth of about 1 km, which was responsible for both the resurgence and the volcanic activity. Furthermore, the tectonic structures bordering the resurgent area and the occurrence of a large thermal anomaly in the western sector of the caldera also provided a signature in the resistivity cross sections, with the magma intrusion producing advection of hot fluids with high geothermal gradients (>150 °C km-1) in the southern and western sectors. All of these data are fundamental for the assessment of the island's volcano-tectonic dynamics and their associated hazards. The structure and activity of the island have been controlled by the process of resurgence associated with the arrival of new magma and the progressive intrusion of a laccolith at a shallow depth. The reactivation of such a shallow system may imply imminent eruption which would pose a major volcanic hazard.

  3. Island biogeography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Whittaker, Robert James; Fernández-Palacios, José María; Matthews, Thomas J.

    2017-01-01

    Islands provide classic model biological systems. We review how growing appreciation of geoenvironmental dynamics of marine islands has led to advances in island biogeographic theory accommodating both evolutionary and ecological phenomena. Recognition of distinct island geodynamics permits gener...

  4. Indexing the Environmental Quality Performance Based on A Fuzzy Inference Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iswari, Lizda

    2018-03-01

    Environmental performance strongly deals with the quality of human life. In Indonesia, this performance is quantified through Environmental Quality Index (EQI) which consists of three indicators, i.e. river quality index, air quality index, and coverage of land cover. The current of this instrument data processing was done by averaging and weighting each index to represent the EQI at the provincial level. However, we found EQI interpretations that may contain some uncertainties and have a range of circumstances possibly less appropriate if processed under a common statistical approach. In this research, we aim to manage the indicators of EQI with a more intuitive computation technique and make some inferences related to the environmental performance in 33 provinces in Indonesia. Research was conducted in three stages of Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System (MAFIS), i.e. fuzzification, data inference, and defuzzification. Data input consists of 10 environmental parameters and the output is an index of Environmental Quality Performance (EQP). Research was applied to the environmental condition data set in 2015 and quantified the results into the scale of 0 to 100, i.e. 10 provinces at good performance with the EQP above 80 dominated by provinces in eastern part of Indonesia, 22 provinces with the EQP between 80 to 50, and one province in Java Island with the EQP below 20. This research shows that environmental quality performance can be quantified without eliminating the natures of the data set and simultaneously is able to show the environment behavior along with its spatial pattern distribution.

  5. MobilomeFINDER: web-based tools for in silico and experimental discovery of bacterial genomic islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ou, Hong-Yu; He, Xinyi; Harrison, Ewan M.; Kulasekara, Bridget R.; Thani, Ali Bin; Kadioglu, Aras; Lory, Stephen; Hinton, Jay C. D.; Barer, Michael R.; Rajakumar, Kumar

    2007-01-01

    MobilomeFINDER (http://mml.sjtu.edu.cn/MobilomeFINDER) is an interactive online tool that facilitates bacterial genomic island or ‘mobile genome’ (mobilome) discovery; it integrates the ArrayOme and tRNAcc software packages. ArrayOme utilizes a microarray-derived comparative genomic hybridization input data set to generate ‘inferred contigs’ produced by merging adjacent genes classified as ‘present’. Collectively these ‘fragments’ represent a hypothetical ‘microarray-visualized genome (MVG)’. ArrayOme permits recognition of discordances between physical genome and MVG sizes, thereby enabling identification of strains rich in microarray-elusive novel genes. Individual tRNAcc tools facilitate automated identification of genomic islands by comparative analysis of the contents and contexts of tRNA sites and other integration hotspots in closely related sequenced genomes. Accessory tools facilitate design of hotspot-flanking primers for in silico and/or wet-science-based interrogation of cognate loci in unsequenced strains and analysis of islands for features suggestive of foreign origins; island-specific and genome-contextual features are tabulated and represented in schematic and graphical forms. To date we have used MobilomeFINDER to analyse several Enterobacteriaceae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Streptococcus suis genomes. MobilomeFINDER enables high-throughput island identification and characterization through increased exploitation of emerging sequence data and PCR-based profiling of unsequenced test strains; subsequent targeted yeast recombination-based capture permits full-length sequencing and detailed functional studies of novel genomic islands. PMID:17537813

  6. Optimal inference with suboptimal models: Addiction and active Bayesian inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas H.B.; Mathys, Christoph; Dolan, Ray; Wurst, Friedrich; Kronbichler, Martin; Friston, Karl

    2015-01-01

    When casting behaviour as active (Bayesian) inference, optimal inference is defined with respect to an agent’s beliefs – based on its generative model of the world. This contrasts with normative accounts of choice behaviour, in which optimal actions are considered in relation to the true structure of the environment – as opposed to the agent’s beliefs about worldly states (or the task). This distinction shifts an understanding of suboptimal or pathological behaviour away from aberrant inference as such, to understanding the prior beliefs of a subject that cause them to behave less ‘optimally’ than our prior beliefs suggest they should behave. Put simply, suboptimal or pathological behaviour does not speak against understanding behaviour in terms of (Bayes optimal) inference, but rather calls for a more refined understanding of the subject’s generative model upon which their (optimal) Bayesian inference is based. Here, we discuss this fundamental distinction and its implications for understanding optimality, bounded rationality and pathological (choice) behaviour. We illustrate our argument using addictive choice behaviour in a recently described ‘limited offer’ task. Our simulations of pathological choices and addictive behaviour also generate some clear hypotheses, which we hope to pursue in ongoing empirical work. PMID:25561321

  7. Tenarife Island, Canary Island Archipelago, Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    Tenarife Island is one of the most volcanically active of the Canary Island archipelago, Atlantic Ocean, just off the NW coast of Africa, (28.5N, 16.5W). The old central caldera, nearly filled in by successive volcanic activity culminating in two stratocones. From those two peaks, a line of smaller cinder cones extend to the point of the island. Extensive gullies dissect the west side of the island and some forests still remain on the east side.

  8. Inference rule and problem solving

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goto, S

    1982-04-01

    Intelligent information processing signifies an opportunity of having man's intellectual activity executed on the computer, in which inference, in place of ordinary calculation, is used as the basic operational mechanism for such an information processing. Many inference rules are derived from syllogisms in formal logic. The problem of programming this inference function is referred to as a problem solving. Although logically inference and problem-solving are in close relation, the calculation ability of current computers is on a low level for inferring. For clarifying the relation between inference and computers, nonmonotonic logic has been considered. The paper deals with the above topics. 16 references.

  9. MobilomeFINDER: web-based tools for in silico and experimental discovery of bacterial genomic islands

    OpenAIRE

    Ou, Hong-Yu; He, Xinyi; Harrison, Ewan M.; Kulasekara, Bridget R.; Thani, Ali Bin; Kadioglu, Aras; Lory, Stephen; Hinton, Jay C. D.; Barer, Michael R.; Deng, Zixin; Rajakumar, Kumar

    2007-01-01

    MobilomeFINDER (http://mml.sjtu.edu.cn/MobilomeFINDER) is an interactive online tool that facilitates bacterial genomic island or ‘mobile genome’ (mobilome) discovery; it integrates the ArrayOme and tRNAcc software packages. ArrayOme utilizes a microarray-derived comparative genomic hybridization input data set to generate ‘inferred contigs’ produced by merging adjacent genes classified as ‘present’. Collectively these ‘fragments’ represent a hypothetical ‘microarray-visualized genome (MVG)’....

  10. Knowledge and inference

    CERN Document Server

    Nagao, Makoto

    1990-01-01

    Knowledge and Inference discusses an important problem for software systems: How do we treat knowledge and ideas on a computer and how do we use inference to solve problems on a computer? The book talks about the problems of knowledge and inference for the purpose of merging artificial intelligence and library science. The book begins by clarifying the concept of """"knowledge"""" from many points of view, followed by a chapter on the current state of library science and the place of artificial intelligence in library science. Subsequent chapters cover central topics in the artificial intellig

  11. Canary Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-01-01

    This easterly looking view shows the seven major volcanic islands of the Canary Island chain (28.0N, 16.5W) and offers a unique view of the islands that have become a frequent vacation spot for Europeans. The northwest coastline of Africa, (Morocco and Western Sahara), is visible in the background. Frequently, these islands create an impact on local weather (cloud formations) and ocean currents (island wakes) as seen in this photo.

  12. Geometric statistical inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Periwal, Vipul

    1999-01-01

    A reparametrization-covariant formulation of the inverse problem of probability is explicitly solved for finite sample sizes. The inferred distribution is explicitly continuous for finite sample size. A geometric solution of the statistical inference problem in higher dimensions is outlined

  13. Monitoring the coastline change of Hatiya Island in Bangladesh using remote sensing techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Manoj Kumer; Kumar, Lalit; Roy, Chandan

    2015-03-01

    A large percentage of the world's population is concentrated along the coastal zones. These environmentally sensitive areas are under intense pressure from natural processes such as erosion, accretion and natural disasters as well as anthropogenic processes such as urban growth, resource development and pollution. These threats have made the coastal zone a priority for coastline monitoring programs and sustainable coastal management. This research utilizes integrated techniques of remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) to monitor coastline changes from 1989 to 2010 at Hatiya Island, Bangladesh. In this study, satellite images from Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM) were used to quantify the spatio-temporal changes that took place in the coastal zone of Hatiya Island during the specified period. The modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI) algorithm was applied to TM (1989 and 2010) and ETM (2000) images to discriminate the land-water interface and the on-screen digitizing approach was used over the MNDWI images of 1989, 2000 and 2010 for coastline extraction. Afterwards, the extent of changes in the coastline was estimated through overlaying the digitized maps of Hatiya Island of all three years. Coastline positions were highlighted to infer the erosion/accretion sectors along the coast, and the coastline changes were calculated. The results showed that erosion was severe in the northern and western parts of the island, whereas the southern and eastern parts of the island gained land through sedimentation. Over the study period (1989-2010), this offshore island witnessed the erosion of 6476 hectares. In contrast it experienced an accretion of 9916 hectares. These erosion and accretion processes played an active role in the changes of coastline during the study period.

  14. ACCELERATED EVOLUTION OF LAND SNAILS MANDARINA IN THE OCEANIC BONIN ISLANDS: EVIDENCE FROM MITOCHONDRIAL DNA SEQUENCES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiba, Satoshi

    1999-04-01

    An endemic land snail genus Mandarina of the oceanic Bonin (Ogasawara) Islands shows exceptionally rapid evolution not only of morphological and ecological traits, but of DNA sequence. A phylogenetic relationship based on mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences suggests that morphological differences equivalent to the differences between families were produced between Mandarina and its ancestor during the Pleistocene. The inferred phylogeny shows that species with similar morphologies and life habitats appeared repeatedly and independently in different lineages and islands at different times. Sequential adaptive radiations occurred in different islands of the Bonin Islands and species occupying arboreal, semiarboreal, and terrestrial habitat arose independently in each island. Because of a close relationship between shell morphology and life habitat, independent evolution of the same life habitat in different islands created species possesing the same shell morphology in different islands and lineages. This rapid evolution produced some incongruences between phylogenetic relationship and species taxonomy. Levels of sequence divergence of mtDNA among the species of Mandarina is extremely high. The maximum level of sequence divergence at 16S and 12S ribosomal RNA sequence within Mandarina are 18.7% and 17.7%, respectively, and this suggests that evolution of mtDNA of Mandarina is extremely rapid, more than 20 times faster than the standard rate in other animals. The present examination reveals that evolution of morphological and ecological traits occurs at extremely high rates in the time of adaptive radiation, especially in fragmented environments. © 1999 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  15. Seismic and gravity signature of the Ischia Island Caldera (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capuano, P.; de Matteis, R.; Russo, G.

    2009-04-01

    The Campania (Italy) coasts are characterized by the presence of several volcanoes. The island of Ischia, located at the northwestern end of the Gulf of Naples, belongs to the Neapolitan Volcanic District together with Phlegrean Fields and Vesuvius, having all these Pleistocene volcanoes erupted in historical times, and it is characterized by diffuse hydrothermal phenomena The island represents the emergent part of a more extensive volcanic area developed mainly westward of the island, with underwater volcanoes aligned along regional fault patterns. The activity of Ischia volcano is testified by the occurrence of eruptions in historical times, the presence of intense hydrothermal phenomena, and by seismic activity (e.g. the 1883 Casamicciola earthquake). Ischia is populated by about 50,000 inhabitants increasing, mainly in the summer, due to thriving tourism business, partially due to its active volcanic state. Hazard assessment at active, densely populated volcanoes is critically based on knowledge of the volcanoes past behavior and the definition of its present state. As a contribution to the definition of the present state of the Ischia island volcano, we obtain a model of the shallow crust using geophysical observables through seismic tomography and 3D gravity inversion. In particular we use travel times collected during the Serapis experiment on the island and its surroundings and free air anomaly. A new 3D gravity inversion procedure has been developed to take better into account the shape and the effects of topography approximating it by a triangular mesh. Below each triangle, a sequence of triangular prisms is built, the uppermost prism having the upper face coincident with the triangle following the topography. The inversion is performed searching for a regularized solution using the minimum norm stabilizer. The main results inferable from the 3D seismic and gravity images are the definition of the caldera rims hypothesize by many authors along the

  16. Origin and Evolution of Nitrogen Fixation Genes on Symbiosis Islands and Plasmid in Bradyrhizobium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okubo, Takashi; Piromyou, Pongdet; Tittabutr, Panlada; Teaumroong, Neung; Minamisawa, Kiwamu

    2016-01-01

    The nitrogen fixation (nif) genes of nodule-forming Bradyrhizobium strains are generally located on symbiosis islands or symbiosis plasmids, suggesting that these genes have been transferred laterally. The nif genes of rhizobial and non-rhizobial Bradyrhizobium strains were compared in order to infer the evolutionary histories of nif genes. Based on all codon positions, the phylogenetic tree of concatenated nifD and nifK sequences showed that nifDK on symbiosis islands formed a different clade from nifDK on non-symbiotic loci (located outside of symbiosis islands and plasmids) with elongated branches; however, these genes were located in close proximity, when only the 1st and 2nd codon positions were analyzed. The guanine (G) and cytosine (C) content of the 3rd codon position of nifDK on symbiosis islands was lower than that on non-symbiotic loci. These results suggest that nif genes on symbiosis islands were derived from the non-symbiotic loci of Bradyrhizobium or closely related strains and have evolved toward a lower GC content with a higher substitution rate than the ancestral state. Meanwhile, nifDK on symbiosis plasmids clustered with nifDK on non-symbiotic loci in the tree representing all codon positions, and the GC content of symbiotic and non-symbiotic loci were similar. These results suggest that nif genes on symbiosis plasmids were derived from the non-symbiotic loci of Bradyrhizobium and have evolved with a similar evolutionary pattern and rate as the ancestral state. PMID:27431195

  17. Goal inferences about robot behavior : goal inferences and human response behaviors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broers, H.A.T.; Ham, J.R.C.; Broeders, R.; De Silva, P.; Okada, M.

    2014-01-01

    This explorative research focused on the goal inferences human observers draw based on a robot's behavior, and the extent to which those inferences predict people's behavior in response to that robot. Results show that different robot behaviors cause different response behavior from people.

  18. Multidecadal shoreline changes of atoll islands in the Marshall Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, M.

    2012-12-01

    Atoll islands are considered highly vulnerable to the impacts of continued sea level rise. One of the most commonly predicted outcomes of continued sea level rise is widespread and chronic shoreline erosion. Despite the widespread implications of predicted erosion, the decadal scale changes of atoll island shorelines are poorly resolved. The Marshall Islands is one of only four countries where the majority of inhabited land is comprised of reef and atoll islands. Consisting of 29 atolls and 5 mid-ocean reef islands, the Marshall Islands are considered highly vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise. A detailed analysis of shoreline change on over 300 islands on 10 atolls was undertaken using historic aerial photos (1945-1978) and modern high resolution satellite imagery (2004-2012). Results highlight the complex and dynamic nature of atoll islands, with significant shifts in shoreline position observed over the period of analysis. Results suggest shoreline accretion is the dominant mode of change on the islands studied, often associated with a net increase in vegetated island area. However, considerable inter- and intra-atoll variability exists with regards to shoreline stability. Findings are discussed with respect to island morphodynamics and potential hazard mitigation and planning responses within atoll settings.

  19. Entropic Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Caticha, Ariel

    2010-01-01

    In this tutorial we review the essential arguments behing entropic inference. We focus on the epistemological notion of information and its relation to the Bayesian beliefs of rational agents. The problem of updating from a prior to a posterior probability distribution is tackled through an eliminative induction process that singles out the logarithmic relative entropy as the unique tool for inference. The resulting method of Maximum relative Entropy (ME), includes as special cases both MaxEn...

  20. Learning Convex Inference of Marginals

    OpenAIRE

    Domke, Justin

    2012-01-01

    Graphical models trained using maximum likelihood are a common tool for probabilistic inference of marginal distributions. However, this approach suffers difficulties when either the inference process or the model is approximate. In this paper, the inference process is first defined to be the minimization of a convex function, inspired by free energy approximations. Learning is then done directly in terms of the performance of the inference process at univariate marginal prediction. The main ...

  1. Foundation Investigation for Ground Based Radar Project-Kwajalein Island, Marshall Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-04-01

    iL_ COPY MISCELLANEOUS PAPER GL-90-5 i iFOUNDATION INVESTIGATION FOR GROUND BASED RADAR PROJECT--KWAJALEIN ISLAND, MARSHALL ISLANDS by Donald E...C!assification) Foundatioa Investigation for Ground Based Radar Project -- Kwajalein Island, Marshall Islands 12. PERSONAL AUTHOR(S) Yule, Donald E...investigation for the Ground Based Radar Project -- Kwajalein Island, Marshall Islands , are presented.- eophysical tests comprised of surface refrac- tion

  2. Phylogeography and conservation genetics of the common wall lizard, Podarcis muralis, on islands at its northern range.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sozos Michaelides

    Full Text Available Populations at range limits are often characterized by lower genetic diversity, increased genetic isolation and differentiation relative to populations at the core of geographical ranges. Furthermore, it is increasingly recognized that populations situated at range limits might be the result of human introductions rather than natural dispersal. It is therefore important to document the origin and genetic diversity of marginal populations to establish conservation priorities. In this study, we investigate the phylogeography and genetic structure of peripheral populations of the common European wall lizard, Podarcis muralis, on Jersey (Channel Islands, UK and in the Chausey archipelago. We sequenced a fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene in 200 individuals of P. muralis to infer the phylogeography of the island populations using Bayesian approaches. We also genotyped 484 individuals from 21 populations at 10 polymorphic microsatellite loci to evaluate the genetic structure and diversity of island and mainland (Western France populations. We detected four unique haplotypes in the island populations that formed a sub-clade within the Western France clade. There was a significant reduction in genetic diversity (HO, HE and AR of the island populations in relation to the mainland. The small fragmented island populations at the northern range margin of the common wall lizard distribution are most likely native, with genetic differentiation reflecting isolation following sea level increase approximately 7000 BP. Genetic diversity is lower on islands than in marginal populations on the mainland, potentially as a result of early founder effects or long-term isolation. The combination of restriction to specific localities and an inability to expand their range into adjacent suitable locations might make the island populations more vulnerable to extinction.

  3. Description of a New Galapagos Giant Tortoise Species (Chelonoidis; Testudines: Testudinidae from Cerro Fatal on Santa Cruz Island.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikos Poulakakis

    Full Text Available The taxonomy of giant Galapagos tortoises (Chelonoidis spp. is currently based primarily on morphological characters and island of origin. Over the last decade, compelling genetic evidence has accumulated for multiple independent evolutionary lineages, spurring the need for taxonomic revision. On the island of Santa Cruz there is currently a single named species, C. porteri. Recent genetic and morphological studies have shown that, within this taxon, there are two evolutionarily and spatially distinct lineages on the western and eastern sectors of the island, known as the Reserva and Cerro Fatal populations, respectively. Analyses of DNA from natural populations and museum specimens, including the type specimen for C. porteri, confirm the genetic distinctiveness of these two lineages and support elevation of the Cerro Fatal tortoises to the rank of species. In this paper, we identify DNA characters that define this new species, and infer evolutionary relationships relative to other species of Galapagos tortoises.

  4. Statistical modeling of the long-range-dependent structure of barrier island framework geology and surface geomorphology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. A. Weymer

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Shorelines exhibit long-range dependence (LRD and have been shown in some environments to be described in the wave number domain by a power-law characteristic of scale independence. Recent evidence suggests that the geomorphology of barrier islands can, however, exhibit scale dependence as a result of systematic variations in the underlying framework geology. The LRD of framework geology, which influences island geomorphology and its response to storms and sea level rise, has not been previously examined. Electromagnetic induction (EMI surveys conducted along Padre Island National Seashore (PAIS, Texas, United States, reveal that the EMI apparent conductivity (σa signal and, by inference, the framework geology exhibits LRD at scales of up to 101 to 102 km. Our study demonstrates the utility of describing EMI σa and lidar spatial series by a fractional autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA process that specifically models LRD. This method offers a robust and compact way of quantifying the geological variations along a barrier island shoreline using three statistical parameters (p, d, q. We discuss how ARIMA models that use a single parameter d provide a quantitative measure for determining free and forced barrier island evolutionary behavior across different scales. Statistical analyses at regional, intermediate, and local scales suggest that the geologic framework within an area of paleo-channels exhibits a first-order control on dune height. The exchange of sediment amongst nearshore, beach, and dune in areas outside this region are scale independent, implying that barrier islands like PAIS exhibit a combination of free and forced behaviors that affect the response of the island to sea level rise.

  5. Statistical modeling of the long-range-dependent structure of barrier island framework geology and surface geomorphology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weymer, Bradley A.; Wernette, Phillipe; Everett, Mark E.; Houser, Chris

    2018-06-01

    Shorelines exhibit long-range dependence (LRD) and have been shown in some environments to be described in the wave number domain by a power-law characteristic of scale independence. Recent evidence suggests that the geomorphology of barrier islands can, however, exhibit scale dependence as a result of systematic variations in the underlying framework geology. The LRD of framework geology, which influences island geomorphology and its response to storms and sea level rise, has not been previously examined. Electromagnetic induction (EMI) surveys conducted along Padre Island National Seashore (PAIS), Texas, United States, reveal that the EMI apparent conductivity (σa) signal and, by inference, the framework geology exhibits LRD at scales of up to 101 to 102 km. Our study demonstrates the utility of describing EMI σa and lidar spatial series by a fractional autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) process that specifically models LRD. This method offers a robust and compact way of quantifying the geological variations along a barrier island shoreline using three statistical parameters (p, d, q). We discuss how ARIMA models that use a single parameter d provide a quantitative measure for determining free and forced barrier island evolutionary behavior across different scales. Statistical analyses at regional, intermediate, and local scales suggest that the geologic framework within an area of paleo-channels exhibits a first-order control on dune height. The exchange of sediment amongst nearshore, beach, and dune in areas outside this region are scale independent, implying that barrier islands like PAIS exhibit a combination of free and forced behaviors that affect the response of the island to sea level rise.

  6. Probabilistic inductive inference: a survey

    OpenAIRE

    Ambainis, Andris

    2001-01-01

    Inductive inference is a recursion-theoretic theory of learning, first developed by E. M. Gold (1967). This paper surveys developments in probabilistic inductive inference. We mainly focus on finite inference of recursive functions, since this simple paradigm has produced the most interesting (and most complex) results.

  7. LAIT: a local ancestry inference toolkit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Daniel; Fang, Zhou; Lin, Jerome; Duan, Qing; Li, Yun; Hu, Ming; Chen, Wei

    2017-09-06

    Inferring local ancestry in individuals of mixed ancestry has many applications, most notably in identifying disease-susceptible loci that vary among different ethnic groups. Many software packages are available for inferring local ancestry in admixed individuals. However, most of these existing software packages require specific formatted input files and generate output files in various types, yielding practical inconvenience. We developed a tool set, Local Ancestry Inference Toolkit (LAIT), which can convert standardized files into software-specific input file formats as well as standardize and summarize inference results for four popular local ancestry inference software: HAPMIX, LAMP, LAMP-LD, and ELAI. We tested LAIT using both simulated and real data sets and demonstrated that LAIT provides convenience to run multiple local ancestry inference software. In addition, we evaluated the performance of local ancestry software among different supported software packages, mainly focusing on inference accuracy and computational resources used. We provided a toolkit to facilitate the use of local ancestry inference software, especially for users with limited bioinformatics background.

  8. Bayesian statistical inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno De Finetti

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This work was translated into English and published in the volume: Bruno De Finetti, Induction and Probability, Biblioteca di Statistica, eds. P. Monari, D. Cocchi, Clueb, Bologna, 1993.Bayesian statistical Inference is one of the last fundamental philosophical papers in which we can find the essential De Finetti's approach to the statistical inference.

  9. Volcanic volatile budgets and fluxes inferred from melt inclusions from post-shield volcanoes in Hawaii and the Canary Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, L.; Gazel, E.; Bodnar, R. J.; Carracedo, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    Pre-eruptive volatile contents of volcanic melts recorded by melt inclusions are useful for estimating rates of deep earth ingassing and outgassing on geologic timescales. Ocean island volcanoes may erupt melts derived from recycled material and thus have implications regarding the degree to which volatile-bearing phases like magnesite can survive subduction and be recycled by intraplate magmatism. However, melt inclusions affected by degassing will not reflect the original volatile content of the primary melt. Post-shield ocean island volcanoes are thought to erupt volatile-rich melts that ascend quickly, crystallizing in deep reservoirs and are more likely to reflect the composition of the primary melt. In this study, we compare melt inclusions from post-shield volcanoes, Haleakala (East Maui, Hawaii) and Tenerife (Canary Islands), to estimate the volatile budgets of two presumably plume-related ocean-island settings. Melt inclusions from Haleakala contain up to 1.5 wt% CO2, up to 1.3 wt% H2O, and about 2000 ppm of S. The CO2 concentration is similar to estimates for primary CO2 concentrations for Hawaii, suggesting that the melt inclusions in this study trapped a melt that underwent minimal degassing. Assuming a melt production rate of 2 km3/ka for postshield Hawaiian volcanism, the average fluxes of CO2 and S are about 80 t/year and 10 t/year respectively. Melt inclusions from Tenerife contain up to 1 wt% CO2, up to 2 wt% H2O, and about 4000 ppm of S. Assuming a melt production rate of 0.8 km3/ka for the northeast rift zone of Tenerife, the average fluxes of CO2 and S are about 20 t/year and 8 t/year respectively. The concentration of CO2 is lower than estimates of the primary melt CO2 content based on CO2/Nb from El Hierro. This may indicate that the inclusions trapped a melt that had degassed significantly, or that some of the CO2 in the inclusions has been sequestered in carbonate daughter crystals, which were observed in abundance.

  10. Is there a hierarchy of social inferences? The likelihood and speed of inferring intentionality, mind, and personality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malle, Bertram F; Holbrook, Jess

    2012-04-01

    People interpret behavior by making inferences about agents' intentionality, mind, and personality. Past research studied such inferences 1 at a time; in real life, people make these inferences simultaneously. The present studies therefore examined whether 4 major inferences (intentionality, desire, belief, and personality), elicited simultaneously in response to an observed behavior, might be ordered in a hierarchy of likelihood and speed. To achieve generalizability, the studies included a wide range of stimulus behaviors, presented them verbally and as dynamic videos, and assessed inferences both in a retrieval paradigm (measuring the likelihood and speed of accessing inferences immediately after they were made) and in an online processing paradigm (measuring the speed of forming inferences during behavior observation). Five studies provide evidence for a hierarchy of social inferences-from intentionality and desire to belief to personality-that is stable across verbal and visual presentations and that parallels the order found in developmental and primate research. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  11. Island in an island – The suggestions for transportation improvement plan for Haidian Island, Haikou, Hainan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sia Rosalind Juo Ling

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Haidian Island, which situated at the Northern part of Haikou City of Hainan Province, is an island within a city. Haidian Island is unique in term of it's development which centered around an university, the Hainan University, besides some others important landmarks, such as Haikou city hospital, Baishamen municipal park, Golf Driving Range etc. All commercials, residential, recreational activities etc are planned to serve Hainan University in particular. The study, taking ‘Haidian Island Area Development Control Plan’ as case study, would like to look into the importance of transportation and traffic planning. The study used observation, site investigation and traffic study methods to gather data needed. Firstly the study analyzed the current state of transportation system for Haidian Island in accordance to the Island Development Control plan and Haikou master plan and identified the problems. Then, the study made some recommendations for these problems. The study highlighted the important of non-motorized, cycling and walking as the main transportation system for an education-based island and as supportive to domestic tourism activities found. The transportation planning suggested by the study took ‘green and low-carbon’ approaches considered the role of University as the core activity in the island.

  12. INFERENCE BUILDING BLOCKS

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-02-15

    expressed a variety of inference techniques on discrete and continuous distributions: exact inference, importance sampling, Metropolis-Hastings (MH...without redoing any math or rewriting any code. And although our main goal is composable reuse, our performance is also good because we can use...control paths. • The Hakaru language can express mixtures of discrete and continuous distributions, but the current disintegration transformation

  13. Practical Bayesian Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailer-Jones, Coryn A. L.

    2017-04-01

    Preface; 1. Probability basics; 2. Estimation and uncertainty; 3. Statistical models and inference; 4. Linear models, least squares, and maximum likelihood; 5. Parameter estimation: single parameter; 6. Parameter estimation: multiple parameters; 7. Approximating distributions; 8. Monte Carlo methods for inference; 9. Parameter estimation: Markov chain Monte Carlo; 10. Frequentist hypothesis testing; 11. Model comparison; 12. Dealing with more complicated problems; References; Index.

  14. Islands and non-islands in native and heritage Korean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boyoung eKim

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available To a large extent, island phenomena are cross-linguistically invariable, but English and Korean present some striking differences in this domain. English has wh-movement and Korean does not, and while both languages show sensitivity to wh-islands, only English has island effects for adjunct clauses. Given this complex set of differences, one might expect Korean/English bilinguals, and especially heritage Korean speakers (i.e. early bilinguals whose L2 became their dominant language during childhood to be different from native speakers, since heritage speakers have had more limited exposure to Korean, may have had incomplete acquisition and/or attrition, and may show significant transfer effects from the L2. Here we examine islands in heritage speakers of Korean in the U.S. Through a series of four formal acceptability experiments comparing these heritage speakers with native speakers residing in Korea, we show that the two groups are remarkably similar. Both show clear evidence for wh-islands and an equally clear lack of adjunct island effects. Given the very different linguistic environment that the heritage speakers have had since early childhood, this result lends support to the idea that island phenomena are largely immune to environmental influences and stem from deeper properties of the processor and/or grammar. Similarly, it casts some doubt on recent proposals that islands are learned from the input.

  15. Class renormalization: islands around islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meiss, J.D.

    1986-01-01

    An orbit of 'class' is one that rotates about a periodic orbit of one lower class with definite frequency. This contrasts to the 'level' of a periodic orbit which is the number of elements in its continued fraction expansion. Level renormalization is conventionally used to study the structure of quasi-periodic orbits. The scaling structure of periodic orbits encircling other periodic orbits in area preserving maps is discussed here. Fixed points corresponding to the accumulation of p/q bifurcations are found and scaling exponents determined. Fixed points for q > 2 correspond to self-similar islands around islands. Frequencies of the island boundary circles at the fixed points are obtained. Importance of this scaling for the motion of particles in stochastic regions is emphasized. (author)

  16. Logical inference and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perey, F.G.

    1981-01-01

    Most methodologies of evaluation currently used are based upon the theory of statistical inference. It is generally perceived that this theory is not capable of dealing satisfactorily with what are called systematic errors. Theories of logical inference should be capable of treating all of the information available, including that not involving frequency data. A theory of logical inference is presented as an extension of deductive logic via the concept of plausibility and the application of group theory. Some conclusions, based upon the application of this theory to evaluation of data, are also given

  17. Genomic islands predict functional adaptation in marine actinobacteria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Penn, Kevin; Jenkins, Caroline; Nett, Markus; Udwary, Daniel; Gontang, Erin; McGlinchey, Ryan; Foster, Brian; Lapidus, Alla; Podell, Sheila; Allen, Eric; Moore, Bradley; Jensen, Paul

    2009-04-01

    Linking functional traits to bacterial phylogeny remains a fundamental but elusive goal of microbial ecology 1. Without this information, it becomes impossible to resolve meaningful units of diversity and the mechanisms by which bacteria interact with each other and adapt to environmental change. Ecological adaptations among bacterial populations have been linked to genomic islands, strain-specific regions of DNA that house functionally adaptive traits 2. In the case of environmental bacteria, these traits are largely inferred from bioinformatic or gene expression analyses 2, thus leaving few examples in which the functions of island genes have been experimentally characterized. Here we report the complete genome sequences of Salinispora tropica and S. arenicola, the first cultured, obligate marine Actinobacteria 3. These two species inhabit benthic marine environments and dedicate 8-10percent of their genomes to the biosynthesis of secondary metabolites. Despite a close phylogenetic relationship, 25 of 37 secondary metabolic pathways are species-specific and located within 21 genomic islands, thus providing new evidence linking secondary metabolism to ecological adaptation. Species-specific differences are also observed in CRISPR sequences, suggesting that variations in phage immunity provide fitness advantages that contribute to the cosmopolitan distribution of S. arenicola 4. The two Salinispora genomes have evolved by complex processes that include the duplication and acquisition of secondary metabolite genes, the products of which provide immediate opportunities for molecular diversification and ecological adaptation. Evidence that secondary metabolic pathways are exchanged by Horizontal Gene Transfer (HGT) yet are fixed among globally distributed populations 5 supports a functional role for their products and suggests that pathway acquisition represents a previously unrecognized force driving bacterial diversification

  18. Divergence times and colonization of the Canary Islands by Gallotia lizards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Siobhan C; Carranza, Salvador; Brown, Richard P

    2010-08-01

    The Canary Islands have become a model region for evolutionary studies. We obtained 1.8 Kbp of mtDNA sequence from all known island forms of the endemic lizard genus Gallotia and from its sister taxon Psammodromus in order to reanalyze phylogenetic relationships within the archipelago, estimate lineage divergence times, and reconstruct the colonization history of this group. Well-supported phylogenies were obtained using maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference. Previous studies have been unable to establish the branching pattern at the base of the tree. We found evidence that G. stehlini (Gran Canaria) originated from the most basal Gallotia node and G. atlantica from the subsequent node. Divergence times were estimated under a global clock using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods implemented by three different programs: BEAST, MCMCTREE, MULTIDIVTIME. Node constraints were derived from subaerial island appearance data and were incorporated into the analyses as soft or hard maximal bounds. Posterior node ages differed slightly between programs, possibly due to different priors on divergence times. The most eastern Canary Islands first emerged just over 20 mya and their colonization appears to have taken place relatively quickly, around 17-20 mya. The subsequent node is consistent with cladogenesis due to colonization of Gran Canaria from the eastern islands about 11-13 mya. The western islands appear to have been colonized by a dispersal event from Lanzarote/Fuerteventura in the east to either La Gomera or one of the ancient edifices that subsequently formed Tenerife in the west, about 9-10 mya. Within the western islands, the most recent node that is ancestral to both the G. intermedia/G. gomerana/G. simonyi and the G.galloti/G. caesaris clades is dated at about 5-6 mya. Subsequent dispersal events between ancient Tenerife islands and La Gomera are dated at around 3 mya in both clades, although the direction of dispersal cannot be determined. Finally, we

  19. The Flooding of Long Island Sound

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, E.; Varekamp, J. C.; Lewis, R. S.

    2007-12-01

    Between the Last Glacial Maximum (22-19 ka) and the Holocene (10 ka) regions marginal to the Laurentide Ice Sheets saw complex environmental changes from moraines to lake basins to dry land to estuaries and marginal ocean basins, as a result of the interplay between the topography of moraines formed at the maximum extent and during stages of the retreat of the ice sheet, regional glacial rebound, and global eustatic sea level rise. In New England, the history of deglaciation and relative sea level rise has been studied extensively, and the sequence of events has been documented in detail. The Laurentide Ice Sheet reached its maximum extent (Long Island) at 21.3-20.4 ka according to radiocarbon dating (calibrated ages), 19.0-18.4 ka according to radionuclide dating. Periglacial Lake Connecticut formed behind the moraines in what is now the Long Island Sound Basin. The lake drained through the moraine at its eastern end. Seismic records show that a fluvial system was cut into the exposed lake beds, and a wave-cut unconformity was produced during the marine flooding, which has been inferred to have occurred at about 15.5 ka (Melt Water Pulse 1A) through correlation with dated events on land. Vibracores from eastern Long Island Sound penetrate the unconformity and contain red, varved lake beds overlain by marine grey sands and silts with a dense concentration of oysters in life position above the erosional contact. The marine sediments consist of intertidal to shallow subtidal deposits with oysters, shallow-water foraminifera and litoral diatoms, overlain by somewhat laminated sandy silts, in turn overlain by coarser-grained, sandy to silty sediments with reworked foraminifera and bivalve fragments. The latter may have been deposited in a sand-wave environment as present today at the core locations. We provide direct age control of the transgression with 30 radiocarbon dates on oysters, and compared the ages with those obtained on macrophytes and bulk organic carbon in

  20. Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper

    (This text written by Jesper Møller, Aalborg University, is submitted for the collection ‘Stochastic Geometry: Highlights, Interactions and New Perspectives', edited by Wilfrid S. Kendall and Ilya Molchanov, to be published by ClarendonPress, Oxford, and planned to appear as Section 4.1 with the ......(This text written by Jesper Møller, Aalborg University, is submitted for the collection ‘Stochastic Geometry: Highlights, Interactions and New Perspectives', edited by Wilfrid S. Kendall and Ilya Molchanov, to be published by ClarendonPress, Oxford, and planned to appear as Section 4.......1 with the title ‘Inference'.) This contribution concerns statistical inference for parametric models used in stochastic geometry and based on quick and simple simulation free procedures as well as more comprehensive methods using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Due to space limitations the focus...

  1. Airborne dust transport to the eastern Pacific Ocean off southern California: Evidence from San Clemente Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhs, D.R.; Budahn, J.; Reheis, M.; Beann, J.; Skipp, G.; Fisher, E.

    2007-01-01

    Islands are natural dust traps, and San Clemente Island, California, is a good example. Soils on marine terraces cut into Miocene andesite on this island are clay-rich Vertisols or Alfisols with vertic properties. These soils are overlain by silt-rich mantles, 5-20 cm thick, that contrast sharply with the underlying clay-rich subsoils. The silt mantles have a mineralogy that is distinct from the island bedrock. Silt mantles are rich in quartz, which is rare in the island andesite. The clay fraction of the silt mantles is dominated by mica, also absent from local andesite, and contrasts with the subsoils, dominated by smectite. Ternary plots of immobile trace elements (Sc-Th-La and Ta-Nd-Cr) show that the island andesite has a composition intermediate between average upper continental crust and average oceanic crust. In contrast, the silt and, to a lesser extent, clay fractions of the silt mantles have compositions closer to average upper continental crust. The silt mantles have particle size distributions similar to loess and Mojave Desert dust, but are coarser than long-range-transported Asian dust. We infer from these observations that the silt mantles are derived from airborne dust from the North American mainland, probably river valleys in the coastal mountains of southern California and/or the Mojave Desert. Although average winds are from the northwest in coastal California, easterly winds occur numerous times of the year when "Santa Ana" conditions prevail, caused by a high-pressure cell centered over the Great Basin. Examination of satellite imagery shows that easterly Santa Ana winds carry abundant dust to the eastern Pacific Ocean and the California Channel Islands. Airborne dust from mainland North America may be an important component of the offshore sediment budget in the easternmost Pacific Ocean, a finding of potential biogeochemical and climatic significance.

  2. Lower complexity bounds for lifted inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred

    2015-01-01

    instances of the model. Numerous approaches for such “lifted inference” techniques have been proposed. While it has been demonstrated that these techniques will lead to significantly more efficient inference on some specific models, there are only very recent and still quite restricted results that show...... the feasibility of lifted inference on certain syntactically defined classes of models. Lower complexity bounds that imply some limitations for the feasibility of lifted inference on more expressive model classes were established earlier in Jaeger (2000; Jaeger, M. 2000. On the complexity of inference about...... that under the assumption that NETIME≠ETIME, there is no polynomial lifted inference algorithm for knowledge bases of weighted, quantifier-, and function-free formulas. Further strengthening earlier results, this is also shown to hold for approximate inference and for knowledge bases not containing...

  3. Variations on Bayesian Prediction and Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-09

    inference 2.2.1 Background There are a number of statistical inference problems that are not generally formulated via a full probability model...problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND...the problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability model/likelihood which can be an obstacle

  4. Adaptive divergence despite strong genetic drift: genomic analysis of the evolutionary mechanisms causing genetic differentiation in the island fox (Urocyon littoralis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    FUNK, W. CHRIS; LOVICH, ROBERT E.; HOHENLOHE, PAUL A.; HOFMAN, COURTNEY A.; MORRISON, SCOTT A.; SILLETT, T. SCOTT; GHALAMBOR, CAMERON K.; MALDONADO, JESUS E.; RICK, TORBEN C.; DAY, MITCH D.; POLATO, NICHOLAS R.; FITZPATRICK, SARAH W.; COONAN, TIMOTHY J.; CROOKS, KEVIN R.; DILLON, ADAM; GARCELON, DAVID K.; KING, JULIE L.; BOSER, CHRISTINA L.; GOULD, NICHOLAS; ANDELT, WILLIAM F.

    2016-01-01

    The evolutionary mechanisms generating the tremendous biodiversity of islands have long fascinated evolutionary biologists. Genetic drift and divergent selection are predicted to be strong on islands and both could drive population divergence and speciation. Alternatively, strong genetic drift may preclude adaptation. We conducted a genomic analysis to test the roles of genetic drift and divergent selection in causing genetic differentiation among populations of the island fox (Urocyon littoralis). This species consists of 6 subspecies, each of which occupies a different California Channel Island. Analysis of 5293 SNP loci generated using Restriction-site Associated DNA (RAD) sequencing found support for genetic drift as the dominant evolutionary mechanism driving population divergence among island fox populations. In particular, populations had exceptionally low genetic variation, small Ne (range = 2.1–89.7; median = 19.4), and significant genetic signatures of bottlenecks. Moreover, islands with the lowest genetic variation (and, by inference, the strongest historical genetic drift) were most genetically differentiated from mainland gray foxes, and vice versa, indicating genetic drift drives genome-wide divergence. Nonetheless, outlier tests identified 3.6–6.6% of loci as high FST outliers, suggesting that despite strong genetic drift, divergent selection contributes to population divergence. Patterns of similarity among populations based on high FST outliers mirrored patterns based on morphology, providing additional evidence that outliers reflect adaptive divergence. Extremely low genetic variation and small Ne in some island fox populations, particularly on San Nicolas Island, suggest that they may be vulnerable to fixation of deleterious alleles, decreased fitness, and reduced adaptive potential. PMID:26992010

  5. Adaptive divergence despite strong genetic drift: genomic analysis of the evolutionary mechanisms causing genetic differentiation in the island fox (Urocyon littoralis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, W Chris; Lovich, Robert E; Hohenlohe, Paul A; Hofman, Courtney A; Morrison, Scott A; Sillett, T Scott; Ghalambor, Cameron K; Maldonado, Jesus E; Rick, Torben C; Day, Mitch D; Polato, Nicholas R; Fitzpatrick, Sarah W; Coonan, Timothy J; Crooks, Kevin R; Dillon, Adam; Garcelon, David K; King, Julie L; Boser, Christina L; Gould, Nicholas; Andelt, William F

    2016-05-01

    The evolutionary mechanisms generating the tremendous biodiversity of islands have long fascinated evolutionary biologists. Genetic drift and divergent selection are predicted to be strong on islands and both could drive population divergence and speciation. Alternatively, strong genetic drift may preclude adaptation. We conducted a genomic analysis to test the roles of genetic drift and divergent selection in causing genetic differentiation among populations of the island fox (Urocyon littoralis). This species consists of six subspecies, each of which occupies a different California Channel Island. Analysis of 5293 SNP loci generated using Restriction-site Associated DNA (RAD) sequencing found support for genetic drift as the dominant evolutionary mechanism driving population divergence among island fox populations. In particular, populations had exceptionally low genetic variation, small Ne (range = 2.1-89.7; median = 19.4), and significant genetic signatures of bottlenecks. Moreover, islands with the lowest genetic variation (and, by inference, the strongest historical genetic drift) were most genetically differentiated from mainland grey foxes, and vice versa, indicating genetic drift drives genome-wide divergence. Nonetheless, outlier tests identified 3.6-6.6% of loci as high FST outliers, suggesting that despite strong genetic drift, divergent selection contributes to population divergence. Patterns of similarity among populations based on high FST outliers mirrored patterns based on morphology, providing additional evidence that outliers reflect adaptive divergence. Extremely low genetic variation and small Ne in some island fox populations, particularly on San Nicolas Island, suggest that they may be vulnerable to fixation of deleterious alleles, decreased fitness and reduced adaptive potential. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Tuppiap Qeqertaa (Tobias Island): a newly discovered island off northeast Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bennike, O.; Mikkelsen, N.; Forsberg, René

    2006-01-01

    The small island of Tuppiap Qeqertaa, formerly known as Tobias circle divide or Tobias Island, is situated 80 km off the northeast Greenland coast. The island was discovered in 1993 and is approximately 2 km long and 1.5 km wide. Most of the island is covered by an ice cap that rises to 35 in abo...

  7. Modelling hourly dissolved oxygen concentration (DO) using dynamic evolving neural-fuzzy inference system (DENFIS)-based approach: case study of Klamath River at Miller Island Boat Ramp, OR, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heddam, Salim

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we present application of an artificial intelligence (AI) technique model called dynamic evolving neural-fuzzy inference system (DENFIS) based on an evolving clustering method (ECM), for modelling dissolved oxygen concentration in a river. To demonstrate the forecasting capability of DENFIS, a one year period from 1 January 2009 to 30 December 2009, of hourly experimental water quality data collected by the United States Geological Survey (USGS Station No: 420853121505500) station at Klamath River at Miller Island Boat Ramp, OR, USA, were used for model development. Two DENFIS-based models are presented and compared. The two DENFIS systems are: (1) offline-based system named DENFIS-OF, and (2) online-based system, named DENFIS-ON. The input variables used for the two models are water pH, temperature, specific conductance, and sensor depth. The performances of the models are evaluated using root mean square errors (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Willmott index of agreement (d) and correlation coefficient (CC) statistics. The lowest root mean square error and highest correlation coefficient values were obtained with the DENFIS-ON method. The results obtained with DENFIS models are compared with linear (multiple linear regression, MLR) and nonlinear (multi-layer perceptron neural networks, MLPNN) methods. This study demonstrates that DENFIS-ON investigated herein outperforms all the proposed techniques for DO modelling.

  8. Diomede Islands, Bering Straight

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    The Diomede Islands consisting of the western island Big Diomede (also known as Imaqliq, Nunarbuk or Ratmanov Island), and the eastern island Little Diomede (also known as Krusenstern Island or Inaliq), are two rocky islands located in the middle of the Bering Strait between Russia and Alaska. The islands are separated by an international border and the International Date Line which is approximately 1.5 km from each island; you can look from Alaska into tomorrow in Russia. At the closest land approach between the United States, which controls Little Diomede, and Russia, which controls Big Diomede, they are 3 km apart. Little Diomede Island constitutes the Alaskan City of Diomede, while Big Diomede Island is Russia's easternmost point. The first European to reach the islands was the Russian explorer Semyon Dezhnev in 1648. The text of the 1867 treaty finalizing the sale of Alaska uses the islands to designate the border between the two nations. The image was acquired July 8, 2000, covers an area of 13.5 x 10.8 km, and is located at 65.8 degrees north latitude, 169 degrees west longitude. The U.S. science team is located at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. The Terra mission is part of NASA's Science Mission Directorate.

  9. Sociodemographic Factors Influencing Island Food Consumption in the Pacific Islander Health Study

    OpenAIRE

    Baumhofer, Nicole Kau'i

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation explores the relationships between island food consumption, sociodemographic variables, and cardiovascular risk using data from the Pacific Islander Health Study (PIHS). Chapter 1 explores the associations between self-reported level of island food consumption and key covariates. Island food consumption was modeled using Poisson regression and adjusted for demographic, socioeconomic, and cultural characteristics. Increased Pacific Island cultural affinity was the strongest p...

  10. Paradise Islands? Island States and Environmental Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sverker C. Jagers

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Island states have been shown to outperform continental states on a number of large-scale coordination-related outcomes, such as levels of democracy and institutional quality. The argument developed and tested in this article contends that the same kind of logic may apply to islands’ environmental performance, too. However, the empirical analysis shows mixed results. Among the 105 environmental outcomes that we analyzed, being an island only has a positive impact on 20 of them. For example, island states tend to outcompete continental states with respect to several indicators related to water quality but not in aspects related to biodiversity, protected areas, or environmental regulations. In addition, the causal factors previously suggested to make islands outperform continental states in terms of coordination have weak explanatory power in predicting islands’ environmental performance. We conclude the paper by discussing how these interesting findings can be further explored.

  11. Biogeography in Cellana (Patellogastropoda, Nacellidae with Special Emphasis on the Relationships of Southern Hemisphere Oceanic Island Species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio A González-Wevar

    Full Text Available Oceanic islands lacking connections to other land are extremely isolated from sources of potential colonists and have acquired their biota mainly through dispersal from geographically distant areas. Hence, isolated island biota constitutes interesting models to infer biogeographical mechanisms of dispersal, colonization, differentiation, and speciation. Limpets of the genus Cellana (Nacellidae: Patellogastropoda show limited dispersal capacity but are broadly distributed across the Indo-Pacific including many endemic species in isolated oceanic islands. Here, we examined main distributional patterns and geographic boundaries among Cellana lineages with special emphasis in the relationships of Southern Hemisphere oceanic islands species. Phylogenetic reconstructions based on mtDNA (COI recognized three main clades in Cellana including taxa from different provinces of the Indo-Pacific. Clear genetic discontinuities characterize the biogeography of Cellana and several lineages are associated to particular areas of the Indo-Pacific supporting the low dispersal capacity of the genus across recognized biogeographical barriers in the region. However, evolutionary relationships within Cellana suggest that long-distance dispersal processes have been common in the history of the genus and probably associated to the origin of the species in Hawaii and Juan Fernández Archipelago. Therefore, the presence of Cellana species in geographically distant Southern Hemisphere oceanic islands, such as the Juan Fernández Archipelago, suggests that long-distance dispersal mediated by rafting may have played an important role in the biogeography of the genus.

  12. Biogeography in Cellana (Patellogastropoda, Nacellidae) with Special Emphasis on the Relationships of Southern Hemisphere Oceanic Island Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakano, Tomoyuki; Palma, Alvaro; Poulin, Elie

    2017-01-01

    Oceanic islands lacking connections to other land are extremely isolated from sources of potential colonists and have acquired their biota mainly through dispersal from geographically distant areas. Hence, isolated island biota constitutes interesting models to infer biogeographical mechanisms of dispersal, colonization, differentiation, and speciation. Limpets of the genus Cellana (Nacellidae: Patellogastropoda) show limited dispersal capacity but are broadly distributed across the Indo-Pacific including many endemic species in isolated oceanic islands. Here, we examined main distributional patterns and geographic boundaries among Cellana lineages with special emphasis in the relationships of Southern Hemisphere oceanic islands species. Phylogenetic reconstructions based on mtDNA (COI) recognized three main clades in Cellana including taxa from different provinces of the Indo-Pacific. Clear genetic discontinuities characterize the biogeography of Cellana and several lineages are associated to particular areas of the Indo-Pacific supporting the low dispersal capacity of the genus across recognized biogeographical barriers in the region. However, evolutionary relationships within Cellana suggest that long-distance dispersal processes have been common in the history of the genus and probably associated to the origin of the species in Hawaii and Juan Fernández Archipelago. Therefore, the presence of Cellana species in geographically distant Southern Hemisphere oceanic islands, such as the Juan Fernández Archipelago, suggests that long-distance dispersal mediated by rafting may have played an important role in the biogeography of the genus. PMID:28099466

  13. Adaptive Inference on General Graphical Models

    OpenAIRE

    Acar, Umut A.; Ihler, Alexander T.; Mettu, Ramgopal; Sumer, Ozgur

    2012-01-01

    Many algorithms and applications involve repeatedly solving variations of the same inference problem; for example we may want to introduce new evidence to the model or perform updates to conditional dependencies. The goal of adaptive inference is to take advantage of what is preserved in the model and perform inference more rapidly than from scratch. In this paper, we describe techniques for adaptive inference on general graphs that support marginal computation and updates to the conditional ...

  14. Imaging Canary Island hotspot material beneath the lithosphere of Morocco and southern Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Meghan S.; O'Driscoll, Leland J.; Butcher, Amber J.; Thomas, Christine

    2015-12-01

    The westernmost Mediterranean has developed into its present day tectonic configuration as a result of complex interactions between late stage subduction of the Neo-Tethys Ocean, continental collision of Africa and Eurasia, and the Canary Island mantle plume. This study utilizes S receiver functions (SRFs) from over 360 broadband seismic stations to seismically image the lithosphere and uppermost mantle from southern Spain through Morocco and the Canary Islands. The lithospheric thickness ranges from ∼65 km beneath the Atlas Mountains and the active volcanic islands to over ∼210 km beneath the cratonic lithosphere in southern Morocco. The common conversion point (CCP) volume of the SRFs indicates that thinned lithosphere extends from beneath the Canary Islands offshore southwestern Morocco, to beneath the continental lithosphere of the Atlas Mountains, and then thickens abruptly at the West African craton. Beneath thin lithosphere between the Canary hot spot and southern Spain, including below the Atlas Mountains and the Alboran Sea, there are distinct pockets of low velocity material, as inferred from high amplitude positive, sub-lithospheric conversions in the SRFs. These regions of low seismic velocity at the base of the lithosphere extend beneath the areas of Pliocene-Quaternary magmatism, which has been linked to a Canary hotspot source via geochemical signatures. However, we find that this volume of low velocity material is discontinuous along strike and occurs only in areas of recent volcanism and where asthenospheric mantle flow is identified with shear wave splitting analyses. We propose that the low velocity structure beneath the lithosphere is material flowing sub-horizontally northeastwards beneath Morocco from the tilted Canary Island plume, and the small, localized volcanoes are the result of small-scale upwellings from this material.

  15. The inference from a single case: moral versus scientific inferences in implementing new biotechnologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmann, B

    2008-06-01

    Are there similarities between scientific and moral inference? This is the key question in this article. It takes as its point of departure an instance of one person's story in the media changing both Norwegian public opinion and a brand-new Norwegian law prohibiting the use of saviour siblings. The case appears to falsify existing norms and to establish new ones. The analysis of this case reveals similarities in the modes of inference in science and morals, inasmuch as (a) a single case functions as a counter-example to an existing rule; (b) there is a common presupposition of stability, similarity and order, which makes it possible to reason from a few cases to a general rule; and (c) this makes it possible to hold things together and retain order. In science, these modes of inference are referred to as falsification, induction and consistency. In morals, they have a variety of other names. Hence, even without abandoning the fact-value divide, there appear to be similarities between inference in science and inference in morals, which may encourage communication across the boundaries between "the two cultures" and which are relevant to medical humanities.

  16. Introductory statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Mukhopadhyay, Nitis

    2014-01-01

    This gracefully organized text reveals the rigorous theory of probability and statistical inference in the style of a tutorial, using worked examples, exercises, figures, tables, and computer simulations to develop and illustrate concepts. Drills and boxed summaries emphasize and reinforce important ideas and special techniques.Beginning with a review of the basic concepts and methods in probability theory, moments, and moment generating functions, the author moves to more intricate topics. Introductory Statistical Inference studies multivariate random variables, exponential families of dist

  17. The slow demise of Easter Island: insights from a modelling investigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gunnar eBrandt

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The history of Easter Island and its supposed social-ecological collapse is often taken as a grim warning for the modern world. However, while the loss of a once lush palm forest is largely uncontested, causes and timing of the collapse remain controversial, because many paleoeological and archaeological data are afflicted with considerable uncertainties. According to a scenario named ecocide, the overharvesting of palm trees triggered a dramatic population decline, whereas a contrasting view termed genocide deems diseases and enslavement introduced by Europeans as the main reasons for the collapse. We propose here a third possibility, a slow demise, in which aspects of both ecocide and genocide concur to produce a long and slow decline of the society. We use a dynamic model to illustrate the consequences of the three alternatives with respect to the fate of the paleoecological system of the island.While none of the three model scenarios can be safely ruled out given the uncertainties of the available data, the slow demise appears to be the most plausible model scenario, in particular when considering the temporal pattern of deforestation as inferred from radiocarbon dates of charcoal remains.

  18. Active inference, communication and hermeneutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, Karl J; Frith, Christopher D

    2015-07-01

    Hermeneutics refers to interpretation and translation of text (typically ancient scriptures) but also applies to verbal and non-verbal communication. In a psychological setting it nicely frames the problem of inferring the intended content of a communication. In this paper, we offer a solution to the problem of neural hermeneutics based upon active inference. In active inference, action fulfils predictions about how we will behave (e.g., predicting we will speak). Crucially, these predictions can be used to predict both self and others--during speaking and listening respectively. Active inference mandates the suppression of prediction errors by updating an internal model that generates predictions--both at fast timescales (through perceptual inference) and slower timescales (through perceptual learning). If two agents adopt the same model, then--in principle--they can predict each other and minimise their mutual prediction errors. Heuristically, this ensures they are singing from the same hymn sheet. This paper builds upon recent work on active inference and communication to illustrate perceptual learning using simulated birdsongs. Our focus here is the neural hermeneutics implicit in learning, where communication facilitates long-term changes in generative models that are trying to predict each other. In other words, communication induces perceptual learning and enables others to (literally) change our minds and vice versa. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  19. Researching Pacific island livelihoods:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Egelund Christensen, Andreas; Mertz, Ole

    2010-01-01

    on contemporary theories of nissology and conceptual analytical frameworks for island research. Through a review of selected case-study-based island literature on changing livelihoods coming out of the South Pacific, we wish to illustrate and discuss advantages of finding common grounds for small island studies....... The focus is on two dimensions of island livelihood, migration and natural resource management, both of which are significant contributors in making island livelihoods and shaping Pacific seascapes. We argue that there is still a substantial lack of studies targeting small island dynamics that are empirical...

  20. 78 FR 63860 - Amendment of Class D Airspace; Kwajalein Island, Marshall Islands, RMI

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-25

    ...This action amends the Kwajalein Island Class D airspace description by amending the geographic coordinates for Bucholz Army Airfield (AAF), Kwajalein Island, Marshall Islands, RMI. The Bucholz AAF geographic coordinates information was updated in the Kwajalein Island Class E airspace descriptions in 2011, but was inadvertently overlooked in the Kwajalein Island Class D airspace description. This action ensures the safety of aircraft operating in the Kwajalein Island airspace area. This is an administrative action and does not affect the operating requirements of the airspace.

  1. Stepping-stones to the Edge: Artistic Expressions of Islandness in an Ocean of Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurie Brinklow

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Since the earliest of times, islands have captured the artistic imagination—and, often, for the artist who finds his or her muse in being ‘islanded’, the smaller the island the better. Archipelagos offer an ideal setting for artists who take their inspiration from place: on small islands off islands they can experience an intensity of island living they might not otherwise have on a main island: boundedness and connection, isolation and community. This paper examines expressions of islandness by artists who live on islands off islands that are poles apart—‘archipelagos’ of the Canadian North Atlantic and the Great Southern Ocean. It draws upon interviews with those artists and writers to consider the nature of humans’ attachment and attraction to islands, exploring through the lens of phenomenology what Stratford et al. call the “entanglement between and among islands”.

  2. Modeling the distribution of Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus on offshore islands in the Falkland Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A. Tabak

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Non-native rats (Rattus spp. threaten native island species worldwide. Efforts to eradicate them from islands have increased in frequency and become more ambitious in recent years. However, the long-term success of some eradication efforts has been compromised by the ability of rats, particularly Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus which are good swimmers, to recolonize islands following eradications. In the Falkland Islands, an archipelago in the South Atlantic Ocean, the distance of 250 m between islands (once suggested as the minimum separation distance for an effective barrier to recolonization has shown to be insufficient. Norway rats are present on about half of the 503 islands in the Falklands. Bird diversity is lower on islands with rats and two vulnerable passerine species, Troglodytes cobbi (the only endemic Falkland Islands passerine and Cinclodes antarcticus, have greatly reduced abundances and/or are absent on islands with rats. We used logistic regression models to investigate the potential factors that may determine the presence of Norway rats on 158 islands in the Falkland Islands. Our models included island area, distance to the nearest rat-infested island, island location, and the history of island use by humans as driving variables. Models best supported by data included only distance to the nearest potential source of rats and island area, but the relative magnitude of the effect of distance and area on the presence of rats varied depending on whether islands were in the eastern or western sector of the archipelago. The human use of an island was not a significant parameter in any models. A very large fraction (72% of islands within 500 m of the nearest potential rat source had rats, but 97% of islands farther than 1,000 m away from potential rat sources were free of rats.

  3. 33 CFR 80.717 - Tybee Island, GA to St. Simons Island, GA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Island. (j) An east-west line from the southernmost extremity of Sea Island across Goulds Inlet to St... Tybee Island 255° true across Tybee Inlet to the shore of Little Tybee Island south of the entrance to... shoreline across Cabretta Inlet. (g) A north-south line (longitude 81°16.9′ W.) drawn from the south...

  4. Energy Transition Initiative: Island Energy Snapshot - U.S. Virgin Islands (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-03-01

    This profile provides a snapshot of the energy landscape of the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) - St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. The Virgin Islands archipelago makes up the northern portion of the Lesser Antilles and the western island group of the Leeward Islands, forming the border between the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea.

  5. Summer Decay Processes in a Large Tabular Iceberg

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wadhams, P.; Wagner, T. M.; Bates, R.

    2012-12-01

    Summer Decay Processes in a Large Tabular Iceberg Peter Wadhams (1), Till J W Wagner(1) and Richard Bates(2) (1) Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA, UK (2) Scottish Oceans Institute, School of Geography and Geosciences, University of St Andrews, St. Andrews, Scotland KY16 9AL We present observational results from an experiment carried out during July-August 2012 on a giant grounded tabular iceberg off Baffin Island. The iceberg studied was part of the Petermann Ice Island B1 (PIIB1) which calved off the Petermann Glacier in NW Greenland in 2010. Since 2011 it has been aground in 100 m of water on the Baffin Island shelf at 69 deg 06'N, 66 deg 06'W. As part of the project a set of high resolution GPS sensors and tiltmeters was placed on the ice island to record rigid body motion as well as flexural responses to wind, waves, current and tidal forces, while a Waverider buoy monitored incident waves and swell. On July 31, 2012 a major breakup event was recorded, with a piece of 25,000 sq m surface area calving off the iceberg. At the time of breakup, GPS sensors were collecting data both on the main berg as well as on the newly calved piece, while two of us (PW and TJWW) were standing on the broken-out portion which rose by 0.6 m to achieve a new isostatic equilibrium. Crucially, there was no significant swell at the time of breakup, which suggests a melt-driven decay process rather than wave-driven flexural break-up. The GPS sensors recorded two disturbances during the hour preceding the breakup, indicative of crack growth and propagation. Qualitative observation during the two weeks in which our research ship was moored to, or was close to, the ice island edge indicates that an important mechanism for summer ablation is successive collapses of the overburden from above an unsupported wave cut, which creates a submerged ram fringing the berg. A model of buoyancy stresses induced by

  6. Phylogeography and diversification history of the day-gecko genus Phelsuma in the Seychelles islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha, Sara; Posada, David; Harris, D James

    2013-01-05

    Lying in a shallow continental shelf cyclically affected by oscillating sea levels since the Miocene, the Seychelles islands are particularly interesting for evolutionary studies. Recent molecular studies are generating an emerging picture of the origin of its biota, yet very little is known regarding their phylogeographic structure or on the factors promoting diversification within the archipelago. Here we aimed to obtain a detailed depiction of the genetic structure and evolution of one of the most widespread vertebrate groups in the archipelago: the day-geckos of the genus Phelsuma. In parallel, we aimed to infer divergence times between species and subspecies, testing a long-standing hypothesis that argues for different time since sympatry between species as the cause of their different morphological differentiation across the archipelago. Molecular data corroborated the existence of two main lineages, corresponding to the two currently recognized species. Divergences between species likely date back to the Mio-Pliocene, while more recent, Pleistocenic, divergences are suggested within each species. Populations from outer islands share mtDNA haplotypes with inner island populations, suggesting very recent dispersals (or introductions). We found no evidence of current gene flow between species, but results pointed to the possibility of gene flow between (now allopatric) subspecies. Time estimates suggest a synchronous divergence within each species (between island groups). The geographic patterns of genetic variation agree with previous taxonomic subdivisions within each species and the origin of outer islands populations is clearly tracked. The similar intraspecific divergence time estimates obtained suggest that the differential body-size differentiation between species within each group of islands may be driven by factors other than character displacement proportional to time since sympatry, as previously suggested. These factors could include different

  7. Optimization methods for logical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Chandru, Vijay

    2011-01-01

    Merging logic and mathematics in deductive inference-an innovative, cutting-edge approach. Optimization methods for logical inference? Absolutely, say Vijay Chandru and John Hooker, two major contributors to this rapidly expanding field. And even though ""solving logical inference problems with optimization methods may seem a bit like eating sauerkraut with chopsticks. . . it is the mathematical structure of a problem that determines whether an optimization model can help solve it, not the context in which the problem occurs."" Presenting powerful, proven optimization techniques for logic in

  8. Inference in `poor` languages

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petrov, S.

    1996-10-01

    Languages with a solvable implication problem but without complete and consistent systems of inference rules (`poor` languages) are considered. The problem of existence of finite complete and consistent inference rule system for a ``poor`` language is stated independently of the language or rules syntax. Several properties of the problem arc proved. An application of results to the language of join dependencies is given.

  9. 46 CFR 7.70 - Folly Island, SC to Hilton Head Island, SC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Folly Island, SC to Hilton Head Island, SC. 7.70 Section... BOUNDARY LINES Atlantic Coast § 7.70 Folly Island, SC to Hilton Head Island, SC. (a) A line drawn from the...′ W. (Port Royal Sound Lighted Whistle Buoy “2PR”); thence to the easternmost extremity of Hilton Head...

  10. EI: A Program for Ecological Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary King

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available The program EI provides a method of inferring individual behavior from aggregate data. It implements the statistical procedures, diagnostics, and graphics from the book A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data (King 1997. Ecological inference, as traditionally defined, is the process of using aggregate (i.e., "ecological" data to infer discrete individual-level relationships of interest when individual-level data are not available. Ecological inferences are required in political science research when individual-level surveys are unavailable (e.g., local or comparative electoral politics, unreliable (racial politics, insufficient (political geography, or infeasible (political history. They are also required in numerous areas of ma jor significance in public policy (e.g., for applying the Voting Rights Act and other academic disciplines ranging from epidemiology and marketing to sociology and quantitative history.

  11. Chemical trends in ocean islands explained by plume–slab interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dannberg, Juliane; Gassmöller, Rene

    2018-04-01

    Earth's surface shows many features, of which the genesis can be understood only through their connection with processes in Earth's deep interior. Recent studies indicate that spatial geochemical patterns at oceanic islands correspond to structures in the lowermost mantle inferred from seismic tomographic models. This suggests that hot, buoyant upwellings can carry chemical heterogeneities from the deep lower mantle toward the surface, providing a window to the composition of the lowermost mantle. The exact nature of this link between surface and deep Earth remains debated and poorly understood. Using computational models, we show that subducted slabs interacting with dense thermochemical piles can trigger the ascent of hot plumes that inherit chemical gradients present in the lowermost mantle. We identify two key factors controlling this process: (i) If slabs induce strong lower-mantle flow toward the edges of these piles where plumes rise, the pile-facing side of the plume preferentially samples material originating from the pile, and bilaterally asymmetric chemical zoning develops. (ii) The composition of the melt produced reflects this bilateral zoning if the overlying plate moves roughly perpendicular to the chemical gradient in the plume conduit. Our results explain some of the observed geochemical trends of oceanic islands and provide insights into how these trends may originate.

  12. On the criticality of inferred models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Marsili, Matteo

    2011-10-01

    Advanced inference techniques allow one to reconstruct a pattern of interaction from high dimensional data sets, from probing simultaneously thousands of units of extended systems—such as cells, neural tissues and financial markets. We focus here on the statistical properties of inferred models and argue that inference procedures are likely to yield models which are close to singular values of parameters, akin to critical points in physics where phase transitions occur. These are points where the response of physical systems to external perturbations, as measured by the susceptibility, is very large and diverges in the limit of infinite size. We show that the reparameterization invariant metrics in the space of probability distributions of these models (the Fisher information) are directly related to the susceptibility of the inferred model. As a result, distinguishable models tend to accumulate close to critical points, where the susceptibility diverges in infinite systems. This region is the one where the estimate of inferred parameters is most stable. In order to illustrate these points, we discuss inference of interacting point processes with application to financial data and show that sensible choices of observation time scales naturally yield models which are close to criticality.

  13. On the criticality of inferred models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Marsili, Matteo

    2011-01-01

    Advanced inference techniques allow one to reconstruct a pattern of interaction from high dimensional data sets, from probing simultaneously thousands of units of extended systems—such as cells, neural tissues and financial markets. We focus here on the statistical properties of inferred models and argue that inference procedures are likely to yield models which are close to singular values of parameters, akin to critical points in physics where phase transitions occur. These are points where the response of physical systems to external perturbations, as measured by the susceptibility, is very large and diverges in the limit of infinite size. We show that the reparameterization invariant metrics in the space of probability distributions of these models (the Fisher information) are directly related to the susceptibility of the inferred model. As a result, distinguishable models tend to accumulate close to critical points, where the susceptibility diverges in infinite systems. This region is the one where the estimate of inferred parameters is most stable. In order to illustrate these points, we discuss inference of interacting point processes with application to financial data and show that sensible choices of observation time scales naturally yield models which are close to criticality

  14. An Inference Language for Imaging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedemonte, Stefano; Catana, Ciprian; Van Leemput, Koen

    2014-01-01

    We introduce iLang, a language and software framework for probabilistic inference. The iLang framework enables the definition of directed and undirected probabilistic graphical models and the automated synthesis of high performance inference algorithms for imaging applications. The iLang framewor...

  15. Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper

    2010-01-01

    Chapter 9: This contribution concerns statistical inference for parametric models used in stochastic geometry and based on quick and simple simulation free procedures as well as more comprehensive methods based on a maximum likelihood or Bayesian approach combined with markov chain Monte Carlo...... (MCMC) techniques. Due to space limitations the focus is on spatial point processes....

  16. Feature Inference Learning and Eyetracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehder, Bob; Colner, Robert M.; Hoffman, Aaron B.

    2009-01-01

    Besides traditional supervised classification learning, people can learn categories by inferring the missing features of category members. It has been proposed that feature inference learning promotes learning a category's internal structure (e.g., its typical features and interfeature correlations) whereas classification promotes the learning of…

  17. Spiders on a Hot Volcanic Roof: Colonisation Pathways and Phylogeography of the Canary Islands Endemic Trap-Door Spider Titanidiops canariensis (Araneae, Idiopidae)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opatova, Vera; Arnedo, Miquel A.

    2014-01-01

    Studies conducted on volcanic islands have greatly contributed to our current understanding of how organisms diversify. The Canary Islands archipelago, located northwest of the coast of northern Africa, harbours a large number of endemic taxa. Because of their low vagility, mygalomorph spiders are usually absent from oceanic islands. The spider Titanidiops canariensis, which inhabits the easternmost islands of the archipelago, constitutes an exception to this rule. Here, we use a multi-locus approach that combines three mitochondrial and four nuclear genes to investigate the origins and phylogeography of this remarkable trap-door spider. We provide a timeframe for the colonisation of the Canary Islands using two alternative approaches: concatenation and species tree inference in a Bayesian relaxed clock framework. Additionally, we investigate the existence of cryptic species on the islands by means of a Bayesian multi-locus species delimitation method. Our results indicate that T. canariensis colonised the Canary Islands once, most likely during the Miocene, although discrepancies between the timeframes from different approaches make the exact timing uncertain. A complex evolutionary history for the species in the archipelago is revealed, which involves two independent colonisations of Fuerteventura from the ancestral range of T. canariensis in northern Lanzarote and a possible back colonisation of southern Lanzarote. The data further corroborate a previously proposed volcanic refugium, highlighting the impact of the dynamic volcanic history of the island on the phylogeographic patterns of the endemic taxa. T. canariensis includes at least two different species, one inhabiting the Jandia peninsula and central Fuerteventura and one spanning from central Fuerteventura to Lanzarote. Our data suggest that the extant northern African Titanidiops lineages may have expanded to the region after the islands were colonised and, hence, are not the source of colonisation. In

  18. Spiders on a Hot Volcanic Roof: Colonisation Pathways and Phylogeography of the Canary Islands Endemic Trap-Door Spider Titanidiops canariensis (Araneae, Idiopidae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vera Opatova

    Full Text Available Studies conducted on volcanic islands have greatly contributed to our current understanding of how organisms diversify. The Canary Islands archipelago, located northwest of the coast of northern Africa, harbours a large number of endemic taxa. Because of their low vagility, mygalomorph spiders are usually absent from oceanic islands. The spider Titanidiops canariensis, which inhabits the easternmost islands of the archipelago, constitutes an exception to this rule. Here, we use a multi-locus approach that combines three mitochondrial and four nuclear genes to investigate the origins and phylogeography of this remarkable trap-door spider. We provide a timeframe for the colonisation of the Canary Islands using two alternative approaches: concatenation and species tree inference in a Bayesian relaxed clock framework. Additionally, we investigate the existence of cryptic species on the islands by means of a Bayesian multi-locus species delimitation method. Our results indicate that T. canariensis colonised the Canary Islands once, most likely during the Miocene, although discrepancies between the timeframes from different approaches make the exact timing uncertain. A complex evolutionary history for the species in the archipelago is revealed, which involves two independent colonisations of Fuerteventura from the ancestral range of T. canariensis in northern Lanzarote and a possible back colonisation of southern Lanzarote. The data further corroborate a previously proposed volcanic refugium, highlighting the impact of the dynamic volcanic history of the island on the phylogeographic patterns of the endemic taxa. T. canariensis includes at least two different species, one inhabiting the Jandia peninsula and central Fuerteventura and one spanning from central Fuerteventura to Lanzarote. Our data suggest that the extant northern African Titanidiops lineages may have expanded to the region after the islands were colonised and, hence, are not the source

  19. Spiders on a Hot Volcanic Roof: Colonisation Pathways and Phylogeography of the Canary Islands Endemic Trap-Door Spider Titanidiops canariensis (Araneae, Idiopidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opatova, Vera; Arnedo, Miquel A

    2014-01-01

    Studies conducted on volcanic islands have greatly contributed to our current understanding of how organisms diversify. The Canary Islands archipelago, located northwest of the coast of northern Africa, harbours a large number of endemic taxa. Because of their low vagility, mygalomorph spiders are usually absent from oceanic islands. The spider Titanidiops canariensis, which inhabits the easternmost islands of the archipelago, constitutes an exception to this rule. Here, we use a multi-locus approach that combines three mitochondrial and four nuclear genes to investigate the origins and phylogeography of this remarkable trap-door spider. We provide a timeframe for the colonisation of the Canary Islands using two alternative approaches: concatenation and species tree inference in a Bayesian relaxed clock framework. Additionally, we investigate the existence of cryptic species on the islands by means of a Bayesian multi-locus species delimitation method. Our results indicate that T. canariensis colonised the Canary Islands once, most likely during the Miocene, although discrepancies between the timeframes from different approaches make the exact timing uncertain. A complex evolutionary history for the species in the archipelago is revealed, which involves two independent colonisations of Fuerteventura from the ancestral range of T. canariensis in northern Lanzarote and a possible back colonisation of southern Lanzarote. The data further corroborate a previously proposed volcanic refugium, highlighting the impact of the dynamic volcanic history of the island on the phylogeographic patterns of the endemic taxa. T. canariensis includes at least two different species, one inhabiting the Jandia peninsula and central Fuerteventura and one spanning from central Fuerteventura to Lanzarote. Our data suggest that the extant northern African Titanidiops lineages may have expanded to the region after the islands were colonised and, hence, are not the source of colonisation. In

  20. Forward and backward inference in spatial cognition.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Will D Penny

    Full Text Available This paper shows that the various computations underlying spatial cognition can be implemented using statistical inference in a single probabilistic model. Inference is implemented using a common set of 'lower-level' computations involving forward and backward inference over time. For example, to estimate where you are in a known environment, forward inference is used to optimally combine location estimates from path integration with those from sensory input. To decide which way to turn to reach a goal, forward inference is used to compute the likelihood of reaching that goal under each option. To work out which environment you are in, forward inference is used to compute the likelihood of sensory observations under the different hypotheses. For reaching sensory goals that require a chaining together of decisions, forward inference can be used to compute a state trajectory that will lead to that goal, and backward inference to refine the route and estimate control signals that produce the required trajectory. We propose that these computations are reflected in recent findings of pattern replay in the mammalian brain. Specifically, that theta sequences reflect decision making, theta flickering reflects model selection, and remote replay reflects route and motor planning. We also propose a mapping of the above computational processes onto lateral and medial entorhinal cortex and hippocampus.

  1. Rhode Island unemployment

    OpenAIRE

    Leonard Lardaro

    2010-01-01

    How can a state like Rhode Island have such a high unemployment rate? This question has been asked often over the past year, especially since at one point, Rhode Island found itself with the dubious distinction of having the highest unemployment rate in the United States. Following that extreme, Rhode Island seemed to settle into a niche where its rank was third nationally.

  2. Coastal management strategy for small island: ecotourism potency development in Karimata Island, West Kalimantan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudiastuti, A. W.; Munawaroh; Setyawan, I. E.; Pramono, G. H.

    2018-04-01

    Sustainable coastal management is playing an important role in coastal resources conservation, particularly on small islands. Karimata archipelago has unique characteristics and great potential to be developed as a tourism object, one of which is Karimata Island as the largest island and also reserve area. The concept of ecotourism focuses on the ecology conservation, economic benefits, and social life. Ecotourism aims to build sustainable tourism that provides economically viable and social benefits to the community. This study aims to develop coastal management strategy based on ecotourism at Karimata Island. Spatial approaching through coastal type was done. Qualitative descriptive analysis and SWOT are used to develop sustainable management strategies for the coast of Karimata Island, where the opportunities and challenges to the development of coastal ecotourism Karimata Island also included. If this potential is optimally utilized, it can be relied as an economic opportunity for local communities. Structurally shaped coast, marine depositional coast and coast build by organism are several of coastal types found at Karimata Island. Coastal ecosystems inhabited Karimata Island are mangroves, coral reefs, and macro-algae. Karimata Island have not been optimally utilized for tourist destinations. The biggest obstacle encountered is the accessibility from Kalimantan or other island at Karimata islands. Several problems related to the utilization of coastal resources were found such as mangrove and coral reef damage, also regulation that less supportive. The results of this study are expected to provide an overview of solutions for the development of coastal tourism potentials in Karimata Island.

  3. Origin of yellow kingfish, Seriola lalandi, from Lord Howe Island, Australia, inferred from otolith chemistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patterson, H.M.; Swearer, S.E.

    2008-01-01

    Yellowtail kingfish, Seriola lalandi (Family Carangidae), sustain important commercial and recreational fisheries in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. However, little is known about their population structure, particularly whether the kingfish around Lord Howe Island (LHI) comprise a distinct stock, separate from that of the NSW stock. We examined the otolith chemistry from juvenile kingfish collected from LHI, several NSW sites and Elizabeth and Middleton reefs (EMR) and compared those elemental signatures to the juvenile portion of adult otoliths collected from LHI to determine where the adults may have originated. Our results indicate a robust separation in otolith signatures from different locations (error rate of classification ranged from 3.5% to 9.9%), and suggest that a significant proportion of the adult kingfish sampled (28%) may have originated in the waters around LHI or nearby EMR. Further research may indicate that the management of kingfish in NSW waters could benefit from a more spatially explicit strategy. (author). 32 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  4. HLA genes in Madeira Island (Portugal) inferred from sequence-based typing: footprints from different origins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spínola, Hélder; Bruges-Armas, Jácome; Mora, Marian Gantes; Middleton, Derek; Brehm, António

    2006-04-01

    Human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-A, HLA-B, and HLA-DRB1 polymorphisms were examined in Madeira Island populations. The data was obtained at high-resolution level, using sequence-based typing (SBT). The most frequent alleles at each loci were: A*020101 (24.6%), B*5101 (9.7%), B*440201 (9.2%), and DRB1*070101 (15.7%). The predominant three-loci haplotypes in Madeira were A*020101-B*510101-DRB1*130101 (2.7%) and A*010101-B*0801-DRB1*030101 (2.4%), previously found in north and central Portugal. The present study corroborates historical sources and other genetic studies that say Madeira were populated not only by Europeans, mostly Portuguese, but also sub-Saharan Africans due to slave trade. Comparison with other populations shows that Madeira experienced a stronger African influence due to slave trade than Portugal mainland and even the Azores archipelago. Despite this African genetic input, haplotype and allele frequencies were predominantly from European origin, mostly common to mainland Portugal.

  5. Self-sustained magnetic islands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chatenet, J H; Luciani, J F [Ecole Polytechnique, 91 - Palaiseau (France); Garbet, X [Association Euratom-CEA, Centre d` Etudes de Cadarache, 13 - Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France). Dept. de Recherches sur la Fusion Controlee

    1996-06-01

    Numerical simulations of a single magnetic island evolution are presented in the regime where the island width is smaller than an ion Larmor radius. It is shown that the island rotation is controlled by particle diffusion due to collisions or a background of microturbulence. As expected from the theory of a stationary island, there exist cases where linearly stable magnetic perturbation are nonlinearly self-sustained. This situation corresponds to large poloidal beta and temperature gradient. The drive is due to diamagnetic frequency effects. However, this situation is not generic, and islands can also decay. It is found that a magnetic island is self-sustained for a negative off-diagonal diffusion coefficient. This case occurs in a tokamak if the inward particle pinch is due to the temperature gradient. (author). 30 refs.

  6. Self-sustained magnetic islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chatenet, J.H.; Luciani, J.F.; Garbet, X.

    1996-06-01

    Numerical simulations of a single magnetic island evolution are presented in the regime where the island width is smaller than an ion Larmor radius. It is shown that the island rotation is controlled by particle diffusion due to collisions or a background of microturbulence. As expected from the theory of a stationary island, there exist cases where linearly stable magnetic perturbation are nonlinearly self-sustained. This situation corresponds to large poloidal beta and temperature gradient. The drive is due to diamagnetic frequency effects. However, this situation is not generic, and islands can also decay. It is found that a magnetic island is self-sustained for a negative off-diagonal diffusion coefficient. This case occurs in a tokamak if the inward particle pinch is due to the temperature gradient. (author)

  7. A formal model of interpersonal inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael eMoutoussis

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: We propose that active Bayesian inference – a general framework for decision-making – can equally be applied to interpersonal exchanges. Social cognition, however, entails special challenges. We address these challenges through a novel formulation of a formal model and demonstrate its psychological significance. Method: We review relevant literature, especially with regards to interpersonal representations, formulate a mathematical model and present a simulation study. The model accommodates normative models from utility theory and places them within the broader setting of Bayesian inference. Crucially, we endow people's prior beliefs, into which utilities are absorbed, with preferences of self and others. The simulation illustrates the model's dynamics and furnishes elementary predictions of the theory. Results: 1. Because beliefs about self and others inform both the desirability and plausibility of outcomes, in this framework interpersonal representations become beliefs that have to be actively inferred. This inference, akin to 'mentalising' in the psychological literature, is based upon the outcomes of interpersonal exchanges. 2. We show how some well-known social-psychological phenomena (e.g. self-serving biases can be explained in terms of active interpersonal inference. 3. Mentalising naturally entails Bayesian updating of how people value social outcomes. Crucially this includes inference about one’s own qualities and preferences. Conclusion: We inaugurate a Bayes optimal framework for modelling intersubject variability in mentalising during interpersonal exchanges. Here, interpersonal representations are endowed with explicit functional and affective properties. We suggest the active inference framework lends itself to the study of psychiatric conditions where mentalising is distorted.

  8. Distributional Inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroese, A.H.; van der Meulen, E.A.; Poortema, Klaas; Schaafsma, W.

    1995-01-01

    The making of statistical inferences in distributional form is conceptionally complicated because the epistemic 'probabilities' assigned are mixtures of fact and fiction. In this respect they are essentially different from 'physical' or 'frequency-theoretic' probabilities. The distributional form is

  9. Reliving Island Life: Staging Stories of the Blasket Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daithí Kearney

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The Blasket Islands are located off the south-west coast of Ireland. No longer inhabited, the Great Blasket Island and its distinctive culture have been documented by a variety of writers and are celebrated today in an interpretative centre on the mainland and in performances by Siamsa Tíre, The National Folk Theatre of Ireland. “Siamsa” developed from local initiatives in North Kerry during the early 1960s and is located today in Tralee, Co. Kerry. It aims to present Irish folklore and folk culture through the medium of theatre involving music, song, dance and mime but invariably no dialogue. In this paper, I focus on the production Oiléan, based loosely on the stories of the Blasket Islanders, which was initially devised as part of the fiftieth anniversary commemoration of the departure of the last inhabitants of the islands in 2003.

  10. Continuous Integrated Invariant Inference, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed project will develop a new technique for invariant inference and embed this and other current invariant inference and checking techniques in an...

  11. 46 CFR 7.85 - St. Simons Island, GA to Little Talbot Island, FL.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false St. Simons Island, GA to Little Talbot Island, FL. 7.85... BOUNDARY LINES Atlantic Coast § 7.85 St. Simons Island, GA to Little Talbot Island, FL. (a) A line drawn from latitude 31°04.1′ N. longitude 81°16.7′ W. (St. Simons Lighted Whistle Buoy “ST S”) to latitude 30...

  12. Magmatic sill intrusions beneath El Hierro Island following the 2011-2012 submarine eruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benito-Saz, María Á.; Sigmundsson, Freysteinn; Parks, Michelle M.; García-Cañada, Laura; Domínguez Cerdeña, Itahiza

    2016-04-01

    El Hierro, the most southwestern island of Canary Islands, Spain, is a volcano rising from around 3600 m above the ocean floor and up to of 1500 m above sea level. A submarine eruption occurred off the coast of El Hierro in 2011-2012, which was the only confirmed eruption in the last ~ 600 years. Activity continued after the end of the eruption with six magmatic intrusions occurring between 2012-2014. Each of these intrusions was characterized by hundreds of earthquakes and 3-19 centimeters of observed ground deformation. Ground displacements at ten continuous GPS sites were initially inverted to determine the optimal source parameters (location, geometry, volume/pressure change) that best define these intrusions from a geodetic point of view. Each intrusive period appears to be associated with the formation of a separate sill, with inferred volumes between 0.02 - 0.3 km3. SAR images from the Canadian RADARSAT-2 satellite and the Italian Space Agency COSMO-SkyMed constellation have been used to produce high-resolution detailed maps of line-of-sight displacements for each of these intrusions. These data have been combined with the continuous GPS observations and a joint inversion undertaken to gain further constraints on the optimal source parameters for each of these separate intrusive events. The recorded activity helps to understand how an oceanic intraplate volcanic island grows through repeated sill intrusions; well documented by seismic, GPS and InSAR observations in the case of the El Hierro activity.

  13. Estimating uncertainty of inference for validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Langenbrunner, James R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

    2010-09-30

    We present a validation process based upon the concept that validation is an inference-making activity. This has always been true, but the association has not been as important before as it is now. Previously, theory had been confirmed by more data, and predictions were possible based on data. The process today is to infer from theory to code and from code to prediction, making the role of prediction somewhat automatic, and a machine function. Validation is defined as determining the degree to which a model and code is an accurate representation of experimental test data. Imbedded in validation is the intention to use the computer code to predict. To predict is to accept the conclusion that an observable final state will manifest; therefore, prediction is an inference whose goodness relies on the validity of the code. Quantifying the uncertainty of a prediction amounts to quantifying the uncertainty of validation, and this involves the characterization of uncertainties inherent in theory/models/codes and the corresponding data. An introduction to inference making and its associated uncertainty is provided as a foundation for the validation problem. A mathematical construction for estimating the uncertainty in the validation inference is then presented, including a possibility distribution constructed to represent the inference uncertainty for validation under uncertainty. The estimation of inference uncertainty for validation is illustrated using data and calculations from Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). The ICF measurements of neutron yield and ion temperature were obtained for direct-drive inertial fusion capsules at the Omega laser facility. The glass capsules, containing the fusion gas, were systematically selected with the intent of establishing a reproducible baseline of high-yield 10{sup 13}-10{sup 14} neutron output. The deuterium-tritium ratio in these experiments was varied to study its influence upon yield. This paper on validation inference is the

  14. Adaptive radiation of island plants: Evidence from Aeonium (Crassulaceae) of the Canary Islands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jorgensen, T.H.; Olesen, J.M.

    2001-01-01

    evidence that such traits have been acquired through convergent evolution on islands comes from molecular phylogenies; however, direct evidence of their selective value rarely is obtained. The importance of hybridization in the evolution of island plants is also considered as part of a more general......The presence of diverse and species-rich plant lineages on oceanic islands is most often associated with adaptive radiation. Here we discuss the possible adaptive significance of some of the most prominent traits in island plants, including woodiness, monocarpy and sexual dimorphisms. Indirect...... discussion of the mechanisms governing radiations on islands. Most examples are from the Hawaiian and Canarian floras, and in particular from studies on the morphological, ecological and molecular diversification of the genus Aeonium, the largest plant radiation of the Canarian Islands....

  15. The evolution and age of populations of Scaphinotus petersi Roeschke on Arizona Sky Islands (Coleoptera, Carabidae, Cychrini

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen Ober

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Populations of the ground beetle Scaphinotus petersi are isolated in subalpine conifer forest habitats on mountain ranges or Sky Islands in southeastern Arizona. Previous work on this species has suggested these populations have been isolated since the last post-glacial maximum times as warming caused this cool adapted species to retreat to high elevations. To test this hypothesis, we inferred the phylogeny from mitochondrial DNA sequence data from several Arizona Sky Island populations of S. petersi and estimated the divergence time of the currently isolated populations. We found two major clades of S. petersi, an eastern clade and a western group. Our results indicated most mountain ranges form clades except the Huachucas, which are polyphyletic and the Santa Catalinas, which are paraphyletic. We estimated the Pinaleño population is much older than the last glacial maximum, but the Huachuca and Pinal populations may have been fragmented from the Santa Catalina population since the post-glacial maximum times.

  16. The fate of stranded oil at the BIOS site twenty years after the experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, E.H.; Sergy, G.A.; Prince, R.C.

    2002-01-01

    As part of the 1981 Baffin Island Oil Spill (BIOS) Project, 15 cubic metres of aged crude oil was released onto the shores of an experimental beach at Cape Hatt, northern Baffin Island, Canada. The oil was left to weather naturally and the distribution, quantity and character of the oil was monitored over time. The experiment provided a unique opportunity to study and sample oil as it weathers over a 20 year period in a low-energy, arctic environment. Over the 20 years of the study, the oil was exposed to weathering processes for about 40 months during ice-free periods. While most of the stranded oil was removed in the first few months of open water immediately following the experiment, some small surface patches still persist. It was noted that there has been very little change in the distribution or in the physical condition of the oil patches between 1993 and 2001. Geochemical analysis reveals that some samples are unaltered despite more than 20 years of exposure to elements. Other samples indicate that biodegradation and photo-oxidation play a major role in removing most of the components of the oil in this low-energy arctic environment. Some highly biodegraded samples had less than 87 per cent of the original hydrocarbons. The study revealed that there are 4 stages in the evolution of the stranded oil: (1) initial rapid refloating of oil during the first 24 to 48 hours in 1981, (2) period of relative stability up to the formation of an asphalt pavement within 4 open-water months, (3) degradation of an asphalt pavement in the upper intertidal zone over a 10-month open-water period from August 1983 to August 1989, and (4) disintegration of the pavement after 1989 and before August 1991, with soft interstitial surface oil still present in 2001. 21 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig

  17. Heron Island, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    Heron Island is located at the sourthern end of Australia's 2,050 km-long Great Barrier Reef. Surrounded by coral reef and home to over 1000 species of fish, scuba divers and scientists alike are drawn to the island's resort and research station. The true-color image above was taken by Space Imaging's Ikonos satellite with a resolution of 4 meters per pixel-high enough to see individual boats tied up at the small marina. The narrow channel leading from the marina to the ocean was blasted and dredged decades ago, before the island became a national park. Since then the Australian government has implemented conservation measures, such as limiting the number of tourists and removing or recycling, instead of incinerating, all trash. One of the applications of remote sensing data from Ikonos is environmental monitoring, including studies of coral reef health. For more information about the island, read Heron Island. Image by Robert Simmon, based on data copyright Space Imaging

  18. East African cassava mosaic-like viruses from Africa to Indian ocean islands: molecular diversity, evolutionary history and geographical dissemination of a bipartite begomovirus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    De Bruyn Alexandre

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cassava (Manihot esculenta is a major food source for over 200 million sub-Saharan Africans. Unfortunately, its cultivation is severely hampered by cassava mosaic disease (CMD. Caused by a complex of bipartite cassava mosaic geminiviruses (CMG species (Family: Geminivirideae; Genus: Begomovirus CMD has been widely described throughout Africa and it is apparent that CMG's are expanding their geographical distribution. Determining where and when CMG movements have occurred could help curtail its spread and reveal the ecological and anthropic factors associated with similar viral invasions. We applied Bayesian phylogeographic inference and recombination analyses to available and newly described CMG sequences to reconstruct a plausible history of CMG diversification and migration between Africa and South West Indian Ocean (SWIO islands. Results The isolation and analysis of 114 DNA-A and 41 DNA-B sequences demonstrated the presence of three CMG species circulating in the Comoros and Seychelles archipelagos (East African cassava mosaic virus, EACMV; East African cassava mosaic Kenya virus, EACMKV; and East African cassava mosaic Cameroon virus, EACMCV. Phylogeographic analyses suggest that CMG’s presence on these SWIO islands is probably the result of at least four independent introduction events from mainland Africa occurring between 1988 and 2009. Amongst the islands of the Comoros archipelago, two major migration pathways were inferred: One from Grande Comore to Mohéli and the second from Mayotte to Anjouan. While only two recombination events characteristic of SWIO islands isolates were identified, numerous re-assortments events were detected between EACMV and EACMKV, which seem to almost freely interchange their genome components. Conclusions Rapid and extensive virus spread within the SWIO islands was demonstrated for three CMG complex species. Strong evolutionary or ecological interaction between CMG species may explain

  19. Exploring the role of Micronesian islands in the maintenance of coral genetic diversity in the Pacific Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, S W; Treml, E A; Kenkel, C D; Matz, M V

    2015-01-01

    Understanding how genetic diversity is maintained across patchy marine environments remains a fundamental problem in marine biology. The Coral Triangle, located in the Indo-West Pacific, is the centre of marine biodiversity and has been proposed as an important source of genetic diversity for remote Pacific reefs. Several studies highlight Micronesia, a scattering of hundreds of small islands situated within the North Equatorial Counter Current, as a potentially important migration corridor. To test this hypothesis, we characterized the population genetic structure of two ecologically important congeneric species of reef-building corals across greater Micronesia, from Palau to the Marshall Islands. Genetic divergences between islands followed an isolation-by-distance pattern, with Acropora hyacinthus exhibiting greater genetic divergences than A. digitifera, suggesting different migration capabilities or different effective population sizes for these closely related species. We inferred dispersal distance using a biophysical larval transport model, which explained an additional 15-21% of the observed genetic variation compared to between-island geographical distance alone. For both species, genetic divergence accumulates and genetic diversity diminishes with distance from the Coral Triangle, supporting the hypothesis that Micronesian islands act as important stepping stones connecting the central Pacific with the species-rich Coral Triangle. However, for A. hyacinthus, the species with lower genetic connectivity, immigration from the subequatorial Pacific begins to play a larger role in shaping diversity than input from the Coral Triangle. This work highlights the enormous dispersal potential of broadcast-spawning corals and identifies the biological and physical drivers that influence coral genetic diversity on a regional scale. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Ancient geographical gaps and paleo-climate shape the phylogeography of an endemic bird in the sky islands of southern India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robin, V V; Sinha, Anindya; Ramakrishnan, Uma

    2010-10-13

    Sky islands, formed by the highest reaches of mountain tracts physically isolated from one another, represent one of the biodiversity-rich regions of the world. Comparative studies of geographically isolated populations on such islands can provide valuable insights into the biogeography and evolution of species on these islands. The Western Ghats mountains of southern India form a sky island system, where the relationship between the island structure and the evolution of its species remains virtually unknown despite a few population genetic studies. We investigated how ancient geographic gaps and glacial cycles have partitioned genetic variation in modern populations of a threatened endemic bird, the White-bellied Shortwing Brachypteryx major, across the montane Shola forests on these islands and also inferred its evolutionary history. We used bayesian and maximum likelihood-based phylogenetic and population-genetic analyses on data from three mitochondrial markers and one nuclear marker (totally 2594 bp) obtained from 33 White-bellied Shortwing individuals across five islands. Genetic differentiation between populations of the species correlated with the locations of deep valleys in the Western Ghats but not with geographical distance between these populations. All populations revealed demographic histories consistent with population founding and expansion during the Last Glacial Maximum. Given the level of genetic differentiation north and south of the Palghat Gap, we suggest that these populations be considered two different taxonomic species. Our results show that the physiography and paleo-climate of this region historically resulted in multiple glacial refugia that may have subsequently driven the evolutionary history and current population structure of this bird. The first avian genetic study from this biodiversity hotspot, our results provide insights into processes that may have impacted the speciation and evolution of the endemic fauna of this region.

  1. Ancient geographical gaps and paleo-climate shape the phylogeography of an endemic bird in the sky islands of southern India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V V Robin

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Sky islands, formed by the highest reaches of mountain tracts physically isolated from one another, represent one of the biodiversity-rich regions of the world. Comparative studies of geographically isolated populations on such islands can provide valuable insights into the biogeography and evolution of species on these islands. The Western Ghats mountains of southern India form a sky island system, where the relationship between the island structure and the evolution of its species remains virtually unknown despite a few population genetic studies.We investigated how ancient geographic gaps and glacial cycles have partitioned genetic variation in modern populations of a threatened endemic bird, the White-bellied Shortwing Brachypteryx major, across the montane Shola forests on these islands and also inferred its evolutionary history. We used bayesian and maximum likelihood-based phylogenetic and population-genetic analyses on data from three mitochondrial markers and one nuclear marker (totally 2594 bp obtained from 33 White-bellied Shortwing individuals across five islands. Genetic differentiation between populations of the species correlated with the locations of deep valleys in the Western Ghats but not with geographical distance between these populations. All populations revealed demographic histories consistent with population founding and expansion during the Last Glacial Maximum. Given the level of genetic differentiation north and south of the Palghat Gap, we suggest that these populations be considered two different taxonomic species.Our results show that the physiography and paleo-climate of this region historically resulted in multiple glacial refugia that may have subsequently driven the evolutionary history and current population structure of this bird. The first avian genetic study from this biodiversity hotspot, our results provide insights into processes that may have impacted the speciation and evolution of the endemic fauna of

  2. Formation and adjustment of typhoon-impacted reef islands interpreted from remote imagery: Nadikdik Atoll, Marshall Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Murray R.; Kench, Paul S.

    2014-06-01

    In 1905, a devastating typhoon hit Nadikdik Atoll (5°54‧ N and 172°09‧ E) in the southern Marshall Islands. Evidence suggests that large sections of reef islands on Nadikdik were overwashed and destroyed. Comparison of aerial photographs taken in 1945 and modern satellite imagery provides a unique record of the geomorphic adjustment of islands after the typhoon. Between 1945 and 2010 the vegetated area of islands on Nadikdik grew from 0.74 to 0.90 km2. Observed changes to Nadikdik reef islands manifested through a range of styles and were largely accretionary. Of note, the formation of a new island was tracked from an embryonic deposit to a fully vegetated and stable island over a 61 year period. Similarly, a number of previously discrete islands have agglomerated and formed a single larger island. These changes were rapid and indicate that reef island formation can occur quickly. Evidence suggests that despite the typhoon occurring over a century ago the geomorphic adjustment of islands is still on-going.

  3. Quantum-Like Representation of Non-Bayesian Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, M.; Basieva, I.; Khrennikov, A.; Ohya, M.; Tanaka, Y.

    2013-01-01

    This research is related to the problem of "irrational decision making or inference" that have been discussed in cognitive psychology. There are some experimental studies, and these statistical data cannot be described by classical probability theory. The process of decision making generating these data cannot be reduced to the classical Bayesian inference. For this problem, a number of quantum-like coginitive models of decision making was proposed. Our previous work represented in a natural way the classical Bayesian inference in the frame work of quantum mechanics. By using this representation, in this paper, we try to discuss the non-Bayesian (irrational) inference that is biased by effects like the quantum interference. Further, we describe "psychological factor" disturbing "rationality" as an "environment" correlating with the "main system" of usual Bayesian inference.

  4. Bayesian Inference Methods for Sparse Channel Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Lovmand

    2013-01-01

    This thesis deals with sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) with application to radio channel estimation. As opposed to the classical approach for sparse signal representation, we focus on the problem of inferring complex signals. Our investigations within SBL constitute the basis for the development...... of Bayesian inference algorithms for sparse channel estimation. Sparse inference methods aim at finding the sparse representation of a signal given in some overcomplete dictionary of basis vectors. Within this context, one of our main contributions to the field of SBL is a hierarchical representation...... analysis of the complex prior representation, where we show that the ability to induce sparse estimates of a given prior heavily depends on the inference method used and, interestingly, whether real or complex variables are inferred. We also show that the Bayesian estimators derived from the proposed...

  5. Statistical inference an integrated Bayesianlikelihood approach

    CERN Document Server

    Aitkin, Murray

    2010-01-01

    Filling a gap in current Bayesian theory, Statistical Inference: An Integrated Bayesian/Likelihood Approach presents a unified Bayesian treatment of parameter inference and model comparisons that can be used with simple diffuse prior specifications. This novel approach provides new solutions to difficult model comparison problems and offers direct Bayesian counterparts of frequentist t-tests and other standard statistical methods for hypothesis testing.After an overview of the competing theories of statistical inference, the book introduces the Bayes/likelihood approach used throughout. It pre

  6. A dengue outbreak on a floating village at Cat Ba Island in Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Viet, Thanh; Choisy, Marc; Bryant, Juliet E; Vu Trong, Duoc; Pham Quang, Thai; Horby, Peter; Nguyen Tran, Hien; Tran Thi Kieu, Huong; Nguyen Vu, Trung; Nguyen Van, Kinh; Le Quynh, Mai; Wertheim, Heiman F L

    2015-09-22

    A dengue outbreak in an ecotourism destination spot in Vietnam, from September to November 2013, impacted a floating village of fishermen on the coastal island of Cat Ba. The outbreak raises questions about how tourism may impact disease spread in rural areas. Epidemiological data were obtained from the Hai Phong Preventive Medical Center (PMC), including case histories and residential location from all notified dengue cases from this outbreak. All household addresses were geo-located. Knox test, a spatio-temporal analysis that enables inference dengue clustering constrained by space and time, was performed on the geocoded locations. From the plasma available from two patients, positive for Dengue serotype 3 virus (DENV3), the Envelope (E) gene was sequenced, and their genetic relationships compared to other E sequences in the region. Of 192 dengue cases, the odds ratio of contracting dengue infections for people living in the floating villages compared to those living on the island was 4.9 (95 % CI: 3.6-6.7). The space-time analyses on 111 geocoded dengue residences found the risk of dengue infection to be the highest within 4 days and a radius of 20 m of a given case. Of the total of ten detected clusters with an excess risk greater than 2, the cluster with the highest number of cases was in the floating village area (24 patients for a total duration of 31 days). Phylogenetic analysis revealed a high homology of the two DENV3 strains (genotype III) from Cat Ba with DENV3 viruses circulating in Hanoi in the same year (99.1 %). Our study showed that dengue transmission is unlikely to be sustained on Cat Ba Island and that the 2013 epidemic likely originated through introduction of viruses from the mainland, potentially Hanoi. These findings suggest that prevention efforts should be focused on mainland rather than on the island.

  7. Genetic consequences of anagenetic speciation in Acer okamotoanum (Sapindaceae) on Ullung Island, Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takayama, Koji; Sun, Byung-Yun; Stuessy, Tod F

    2012-02-01

    Anagenesis (also known as phyletic speciation) is an important process of speciation in endemic species of oceanic islands. We investigated genetic variation in Acer okamotoanum, an anagenetically derived species endemic to Ullung Island, South Korea, to infer genetic consequences of anagenesis in comparison with other groups that have undergone cladogenesis (and adaptive radiation). We examined genetic variation based on eight polymorphic microsatellite markers from 145 individuals of A. okamotoanum and 134 individuals of its putative progenitor A. mono. We employed standard population genetic analyses, clustering analyses, Bayesian clustering analyses in STRUCTURE and bottleneck analyses. Based on both the Neighbor-Joining tree and Bayesian clustering analyses, clear genetic distinctions were found between the two species. Genetic diversity in terms of allelic richness and heterozygosity shows slightly lower levels in A. okamotoanum in comparison with A. mono. Bayesian clustering analyses showed a relatively high F-value in the cluster of A. okamotoanum, suggesting a strong episode of genetic drift during colonization and speciation. There was no clear evidence of a bottleneck based on allelic frequency distribution and excess of observed heterozygotes, but the M-ratio indicated a historical bottleneck in several populations of A. okamotoanum. No geographical genetic structure within the island was found, and the genetic variation among populations of A. okamotoanum was quite low. We hypothesized that genetic consequences of oceanic-endemic plants derived via anagenesis would be quite different from those derived via cladogenesis. Populations of A. okamotoanum form a cluster and are clearly differentiated from A. mono, which suggests a single origin for the anagenetically derived island endemic. No pattern of geographical differentiation of populations occurs in A. okamotoanum, which supports the concept of initial founder populations diverging through time by

  8. Inference Attacks and Control on Database Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhamed Turkanovic

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Today’s databases store information with sensitivity levels that range from public to highly sensitive, hence ensuring confidentiality can be highly important, but also requires costly control. This paper focuses on the inference problem on different database structures. It presents possible treats on privacy with relation to the inference, and control methods for mitigating these treats. The paper shows that using only access control, without any inference control is inadequate, since these models are unable to protect against indirect data access. Furthermore, it covers new inference problems which rise from the dimensions of new technologies like XML, semantics, etc.

  9. Bryophytes from Simeonof Island in the Shumagin Islands, southwestern Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schofield, W.B.; Talbot, S. S.; Talbot, S.L.

    2004-01-01

    Simeonof Island is located south of the Alaska Peninsula in the hyperoceanic sector of the middle boreal subzone. We examined the bryoflora of Simeonof Island to determine species composition in an area where no previous collections had been reported. This field study was conducted in sites selected to represent the spectrum of environmental variation within Simeonof Island. Data were analyzed using published reports to compare bryophyte distribution patterns at three levels, the Northern Hemisphere, North America, and Alaska. A total of 271 bryophytes were identified: 202 mosses and 69 liverworts. The annotated list of species for Simeonof Island expands the known range for many species and fills distribution gaps within Hulte??n's Western Pacific Coast district. Maps and notes on the distribution of 14 significant distribution records are presented. Compared with bryophyte distribution in the Northern Hemisphere, the bryoflora of Simeonof Island primarily includes taxa of boreal (55%), temperate (20%), arctic (10%), and cosmopolitan (8%) distribution; 6% of the moss flora are western North America endemics. A description of the bryophytes present in the vegetation and habitat types is provided as is a quantitative analysis of the most frequently occurring bryophytes in crowberry heath.

  10. On the form of species–area relationships in habitat islands and true islands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Matthews, Thomas J.; Guilhaumon, François; Triantis, Kostas A.

    2016-01-01

    and c vary between different island types. Location: Global. Methods: We used an information theoretic approach to compare the fit of 20 ISAR models to 207 habitat island datasets. Model performance was ranked according to pre-set criteria, including metrics of generality and efficiency. We also fitted......, and was the highest ranked model overall. In general, the more complex models performed badly. Average z-values were significantly lower for habitat island datasets than for true islands, and were higher for mountaintop and urban habitat islands than for other habitat island types. Average c-values were significantly...... multimodel comparisons demonstrated the nonlinear implementation of the power model to be the best overall model and thus to be a sensible choice for general use. As the z-value of the log–log power model varied in relation to ecological and geographical properties of the study systems, caution should...

  11. Island formation without attractive interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, A.P.J.

    2008-01-01

    We show that adsorbates on surfaces can form islands even if there are no attractive interactions. Instead, strong repulsion between adsorbates at short distances can lead to islands, because such islands increase the entropy of the adsorbates that are not part of the islands. We suggest that this

  12. Type Inference with Inequalities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwartzbach, Michael Ignatieff

    1991-01-01

    of (monotonic) inequalities on the types of variables and expressions. A general result about systems of inequalities over semilattices yields a solvable form. We distinguish between deciding typability (the existence of solutions) and type inference (the computation of a minimal solution). In our case, both......Type inference can be phrased as constraint-solving over types. We consider an implicitly typed language equipped with recursive types, multiple inheritance, 1st order parametric polymorphism, and assignments. Type correctness is expressed as satisfiability of a possibly infinite collection...

  13. Tales of island tails

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groot, de Alma V.; Oost, Albert P.; Veeneklaas, Roos M.; Lammerts, Evert Jan; Duin, van Willem E.; Wesenbeeck, van Bregje K.

    2016-01-01

    The Frisian islands (Southern North Sea) have extensive island tails, i.e. the entire downdrift side of an island consisting of salt marshes, dunes, beaches and beach plains, and green beaches. Currently, large parts of these tails are ageing and losing dynamics, partly due to human influence.

  14. Energy Self-Sufficient Island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bratic, S.; Krajacic, G.; Duic, N.; Cotar, A.; Jardas, D.

    2011-01-01

    In order to analyze energy self-sufficient island, example of a smaller island, connected to the power system of a bigger island with an undersea cable, was taken. Mounting substation 10/0,4 is situated on the island and for the moment it provides enough electricity using the medium voltage line. It is assumed that the island is situated on the north part of the Adriatic Sea. The most important problem that occurs on the island is the population drop that occurs for a significant number of years, therefore, life standard needs to be improved, and economic development needs to be encouraged immediately. Local authorities to stimulate sustainable development on the island through different projects, to breath in a new life to the island, open new jobs and attract new people to come live there. Because of the planned development and increase of the population, energy projects, planned as a support to sustainable development, and later achievement of the energy self-sufficiency, is described in this paper. Therefore, Rewisland methodology appliance is described taking into the account three possible scenarios of energy development. Each scenario is calculated until year 2030. Also, what is taken into the account is 100% usage of renewable sources of energy in 2030. Scenario PTV, PP, EE - This scenario includes installation of solar photovoltaic modules and solar thermal collectors on the buildings roofs, as well as well as implementation of energy efficiency on the island (replacement of the street light bulbs with LED lightning, replacement of the old windows and doors on the houses, as well as the installation of the thermal insulation). Scenario PV island - This scenario, similarly to the previous one, includes installation of solar photovoltaic modules and solar thermal collectors an the residential buildings, as well as the 2 MW photovoltaic power plant and ''Green Hotel'', a building that satisfies all of its energy needs completely from renewable energy sources

  15. One million served: Rhode Island`s recycling facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malloy, M.G.

    1997-11-01

    Rhode Island`s landfill and adjacent materials recovery facility (MRF) in Johnston, both owned by the quasi-public Rhode Island Resource Recovery Corp. (RIRRC, Johnston), serve the entire state. The $12-million recycling facility was built in 1989 next to the state`s sole landfill, the Central Landfill, which accepts only in-state trash. The MRF is operated for RIRRC by New England CRInc. (Hampton, N.H.), a unit of Waste Management, Inc. (WMI, Oak Brook, Ill.). It handles a wide variety of materials, from the usual newspaper, cardboard, and mixed containers to new streams such as wood waste, scrap metal, aseptic packaging (milk and juice boxes), and even textiles. State municipalities are in the process of adding many of these new recyclable streams into their curbside collection programs, all of which feed the facility.

  16. Origin and diversification of Hibiscus glaber, species endemic to the oceanic Bonin Islands, revealed by chloroplast DNA polymorphism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takayama, Koji; Ohi-Toma, Tetsuo; Kudoh, Hiroshi; Kato, Hidetoshi

    2005-04-01

    Abstract Two woody Hibiscus species co-occur in the Bonin Islands of the northwestern Pacific Ocean: Hibiscus glaber Matsum. is endemic to the islands, and its putative ancestral species, Hibiscus tiliaceus L., is widely distributed in coastal areas of the tropics and subtropics. To infer isolating mechanisms that led to speciation of H. glaber and the processes that resulted in co-occurrence of the two closely related species on the Bonin Islands, we conducted molecular phylogenetic analyses on chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) sequences. Materials collected from a wide area of the Pacific and Indian Oceans were used, and two closely related species, Hibiscus hamabo Siebold Zucc. and Hibiscus macrophyllus Roxb., were also included in the analyses. The constructed tree suggested that H. glaber has been derived from H. tiliaceus, and that most of the modern Bonin populations of H. tiliaceus did not share most recent ancestry with H. glaber. Geographic isolation appears to be the most important mechanism in the speciation of H. glaber. The co-occurrence of the two species can be attributed to multiple migrations of different lineages into the islands. While a wide and overlapping geographical distribution of haplotypes was found in H. tiliaceus, localized geographical distribution of haplotypes was detected in H. glaber. It is hypothesized that a shift to inland habitats may have affected the mode of seed dispersal from ocean currents to gravity and hence resulted in geographical structuring of H. glaber haplotypes.

  17. Inference in models with adaptive learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chevillon, G.; Massmann, M.; Mavroeidis, S.

    2010-01-01

    Identification of structural parameters in models with adaptive learning can be weak, causing standard inference procedures to become unreliable. Learning also induces persistent dynamics, and this makes the distribution of estimators and test statistics non-standard. Valid inference can be

  18. Immigrants, islandness and perceptions of quality-of-life on Prince Edward Island, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Kitchen

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores perceptions of immigrant quality-of-life (QOL and islandness in Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, Canada, and compares these perceptions to those of Canadian-born residents of the same provincial capital. The study employed a mixed-methods approach, including a household telephone survey conducted in the summer of 2012 (n=302, focus group interviews with immigrants in late 2012 and observations on preliminary results by the staff of the PEI Association of Newcomers to Canada (PEIANC, the primary immigrant settlement service agency on the island. The analysis of the results suggests that immigrants have a high and undifferentiated assessment of their own QOL, sense of belonging and sense of place compared to Canadian-born islanders; immigrants are also critical of the quality of education and of the range of recreational and cultural events underway on the Island. While they express positive sentiments regarding life on the Island, immigrants still feel excluded from social and economic opportunities.

  19. Pathogenicity island mobility and gene content.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Kelly Porter

    2013-10-01

    Key goals towards national biosecurity include methods for analyzing pathogens, predicting their emergence, and developing countermeasures. These goals are served by studying bacterial genes that promote pathogenicity and the pathogenicity islands that mobilize them. Cyberinfrastructure promoting an island database advances this field and enables deeper bioinformatic analysis that may identify novel pathogenicity genes. New automated methods and rich visualizations were developed for identifying pathogenicity islands, based on the principle that islands occur sporadically among closely related strains. The chromosomally-ordered pan-genome organizes all genes from a clade of strains; gaps in this visualization indicate islands, and decorations of the gene matrix facilitate exploration of island gene functions. A %E2%80%9Clearned phyloblocks%E2%80%9D method was developed for automated island identification, that trains on the phylogenetic patterns of islands identified by other methods. Learned phyloblocks better defined termini of previously identified islands in multidrug-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae ATCC BAA-2146, and found its only antibiotic resistance island.

  20. First record of the mycoheterotrophic orchid Gastrodia fontinalis (Orchidaceae from Takeshima Island, the Ryukyu Islands, Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenji Suetsugu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available We found Gastrodia fontinalis T. P. Lin in a bamboo forest from Takeshima Island, which is the northernmost island of the Ryukyu Islands in Japan. This species is apparently rare and was previously considered to be an endemic Taiwanese species. Because there are a few minor differences between the original description and our specimens collected in Takeshima Island, here we report Gastrodia fontinalis from Takeshima Island as the first record outside of Taiwan, with a description of the specimens from Takeshima Island.

  1. Renewable energy islands in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oestergaard, Iben [ed.

    1998-12-31

    This publication includes a compiled presentation of various aspects concerning the possible transformation of some European islands into renewable energy communities and these projects were presented by a selection of pioneer islands at the first European Seminar on Renewable Energy Islands, held on the Danish island of Samsoee, 29-30 June 1998. This issue has increased in importance with the presentation of the ambitious EU-White Paper: `Energy for the future: Renewable Sources of Energy` which was adopted in 1998. One of the key elements of the strategy for an accelerated implementation of renewable energy is to transform 100 localities within Europe into communities which are to be 100% self-sufficient with renewable energy before 2010. In line with this strategy, the Danish Government appointed the island of Samsoe towards the end of 1997 to be the first `official` Danish, renewable energy island. This is to serve as a demonstration project for other local communities, both in Denmark as well as in the rest Europe. Gothland, Madeira, Canary Islands, Cape Verde, Arki, Crete, Minorca and Orkney Islands were represented. Environmental advantages of wind, solar and wave power for distant island communities were indicated. Serious savings would be achieved by limitation of fossil fuel import and utilization of local resources. (EG)

  2. Fiducial inference - A Neyman-Pearson interpretation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salome, D; VonderLinden, W; Dose,; Fischer, R; Preuss, R

    1999-01-01

    Fisher's fiducial argument is a tool for deriving inferences in the form of a probability distribution on the parameter space, not based on Bayes's Theorem. Lindley established that in exceptional situations fiducial inferences coincide with posterior distributions; in the other situations fiducial

  3. Uncertainty in prediction and in inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hilgevoord, J.; Uffink, J.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts of uncertainty in prediction and inference are introduced and illustrated using the diffraction of light as an example. The close re-lationship between the concepts of uncertainty in inference and resolving power is noted. A general quantitative measure of uncertainty in

  4. Barrier island habitat map and vegetation survey—Dauphin Island, Alabama, 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enwright, Nicholas M.; Borchert, Sinéad M.; Day, Richard H.; Feher, Laura C.; Osland, Michael J.; Wang, Lei; Wang, Hongqing

    2017-08-04

    Barrier islands are dynamic environments due to their position at the land-sea interface. Storms, waves, tides, currents, and relative sea-level rise are powerful forces that shape barrier island geomorphology and habitats (for example, beach, dune, marsh, and forest). Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the Deep Water Horizon oil spill in 2010 are two major events that have affected habitats and natural resources on Dauphin Island, Alabama. The latter event prompted a collaborative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the State of Alabama funded by the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation to investigate viable, sustainable restoration options that protect and restore the natural resources of Dauphin Island, Alabama.In order to understand the feasibility and sustainability of various restoration scenarios, it is important to understand current conditions on Dauphin Island. To further this understanding, a detailed 19-class habitat map for Dauphin Island was produced from 1-foot aerial infrared photography collected on December 4, 2015, and lidar data collected in January 2015. We also conducted a ground survey of habitat types, vegetation community structure, and elevations in November and December 2015. These products provide baseline data regarding the ecological and general geomorphological attributes of the area, which can be compared with observations from other dates for tracking changes over time.

  5. Phylogeny of the Celastreae (Celastraceae) and the relationships of Catha edulis (qat) inferred from morphological characters and nuclear and plastid genes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmons, Mark P; Cappa, Jennifer J; Archer, Robert H; Ford, Andrew J; Eichstedt, Dedra; Clevinger, Curtis C

    2008-08-01

    The phylogeny of Celastraceae tribe Celastreae, which includes about 350 species of trees and shrubs in 15 genera, was inferred in a simultaneous analysis of morphological characters together with nuclear (ITS and 26S rDNA) and plastid (matK, trnL-F) genes. A strong correlation was found between the geography of the species sampled and their inferred relationships. Species of Maytenus and Gymnosporia from different regions were resolved as polyphyletic groups. Maytenus was resolved in three lineages (New World, African, and Austral-Pacific), while Gymnosporia was resolved in two lineages (New World and Old World). Putterlickia was resolved as nested within the Old World Gymnosporia. Catha edulis (qat, khat) was resolved as sister to the clade of Allocassine, Cassine, Lauridia, and Maurocenia. Gymnosporia cassinoides, which is reportedly chewed as a stimulant in the Canary Islands, was resolved as a derived member of Gymnosporia and is more closely related to Lydenburgia and Putterlickia than it is to Catha. Therefore, all eight of these genera are candidates for containing cathinone- and/or cathine-related alkaloids.

  6. 33 CFR 80.712 - Morris Island, SC to Hilton Head Island, SC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Morris Island, SC to Hilton Head..., SC to Hilton Head Island, SC. (a) A line drawn from the easternmost tip of Folley Island to the... easternmost extremity of Hilton Head at latitude 32°13.0′ N. longitude 80°40.1′ W. [CGD 77-118a, 42 FR 35784...

  7. Island dynamics and Minoan expansion in the Aegean: the Kythera Island Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cyprian Broodbank

    1999-11-01

    Full Text Available In recent years archaeologists have become increasingly interested in the investigation of island societies. At a global level, discoveries in the Pacific, Caribbean, Mediterranean and elsewhere have greatly improved our understanding of the antiquity and dynamics of island life. Now archaeologists at the Institute, together with other colleagues, have embarked on a long-term interdisciplinary study of the island of Kythera in the Aegean.

  8. Holocene sea-level changes in the Falkland Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, Tom; Gehrels, Roland; Daley, Tim; Long, Antony; Bentley, Mike

    2014-05-01

    In many locations in the southern hemisphere, relative sea level (RSL) reached its maximum position during the middle Holocene. This highstand is used by models of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) to constrain the melt histories of the large ice sheets, particularly Antarctica. In this paper we present the first Holocene sea-level record from the Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas), an archipelago located on the Patagonian continental shelf about 500 km east of mainland South America at a latitude of ca. 52 degrees. Unlike coastal locations in southernmost South America, Holocene sea-level data from the Falklands are not influenced by tectonics, local ice loading effects and large tidal ranges such that GIA and ice-ocean mass flux are the dominant drivers of RSL change. Our study site is a salt marsh located in Swan Inlet in East Falkland, around 50 km southwest of Stanley. This is the largest and best developed salt marsh in the Falkland Islands. Cores were collected in 2005 and 2013. Lithostratigraphic analyses were complemented by analyses of foraminifera, testate amoebae and diatoms to infer palaeoenvironments. The bedrock, a Permian black shale, is overlain by grey-brown organic salt-marsh clay, up to 90 cm thick, which, in a landward direction, is replaced by freshwater organic sediments. Overlying these units are medium-coarse sands with occasional pebbles, up to 115 cm thick, containing tidal flat foraminifera. The sandy unit is erosively overlain by a grey-brown organic salt-marsh peat which extends up to the present surface. Further away from the sea this unit is predominantly of freshwater origin. Based on 13 radiocarbon dates we infer that prior to ~9.5 ka sea level was several metres below present. Under rising sea levels a salt marsh developed which was suddenly drowned around 8.4 ka, synchronous with a sea-level jump known from northern hemisphere locations. Following the drowning, RSL rose to its maximum position around 7 ka, less than 0.5 m above

  9. Polynomial Chaos Surrogates for Bayesian Inference

    KAUST Repository

    Le Maitre, Olivier

    2016-01-06

    The Bayesian inference is a popular probabilistic method to solve inverse problems, such as the identification of field parameter in a PDE model. The inference rely on the Bayes rule to update the prior density of the sought field, from observations, and derive its posterior distribution. In most cases the posterior distribution has no explicit form and has to be sampled, for instance using a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo method. In practice the prior field parameter is decomposed and truncated (e.g. by means of Karhunen- Lo´eve decomposition) to recast the inference problem into the inference of a finite number of coordinates. Although proved effective in many situations, the Bayesian inference as sketched above faces several difficulties requiring improvements. First, sampling the posterior can be a extremely costly task as it requires multiple resolutions of the PDE model for different values of the field parameter. Second, when the observations are not very much informative, the inferred parameter field can highly depends on its prior which can be somehow arbitrary. These issues have motivated the introduction of reduced modeling or surrogates for the (approximate) determination of the parametrized PDE solution and hyperparameters in the description of the prior field. Our contribution focuses on recent developments in these two directions: the acceleration of the posterior sampling by means of Polynomial Chaos expansions and the efficient treatment of parametrized covariance functions for the prior field. We also discuss the possibility of making such approach adaptive to further improve its efficiency.

  10. Vegetation and checklist of Inaccessible Island, central South Atlantic Ocean, with notes on Nightingale Island

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Roux

    1992-10-01

    Full Text Available The physiography and climate of Inaccessible and Nightingale Islands are briefly discussed. The vegetation and the major plant associations are described. Notes are given on the ecology and distribution of each taxon. Taxa newly recorded for Inaccessible Island include Agrostis goughensis, A.holgateana, A. wacei, Calamagrostis deschampsiiformis, Carex thouarsii var.  recurvata, Conyza albida, Elaphoglossum campylolepium and  Uncinia meridensis. One species, C.  albida, is alien to the Tristan group. Two native ferns Asplenium platybasis var.  subnudum and Blechnum australe were found on Nightingale Island for the first time, and the presence of introduced Malus domestica orchards was recorded. Two unidentified taxa were found that may represent new species:  Elaphoglossum sp. at Inaccessible Island and Apium sp. at both Inaccessible and Nightingale Islands. The total number of vascular plant species recorded at Inaccessible and Nightingale Islands now stands at 98 and 43, respectively, of which 26 (28% and seven (16% are introduced species. Only Airiplex plebeja and two species of Cotula occur at Nightingale Island but are absent from Inaccessible Island.

  11. Marshall Islands

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2015-01-01

    This note aims to build understanding of the existing disaster risk financing and insurance (DRFI) tools in use in The Marshall Islands and to identify gaps where potential engagement could further develop financial resilience. The likelihood that a hazardous event will have a significant impact on the Marshall Islands has risen with the increasing levels of population and assets in the urban ...

  12. Interactive Instruction in Bayesian Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Azam; Breslav, Simon; Hornbæk, Kasper

    2018-01-01

    An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction. These pri......An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction....... These principles concern coherence, personalization, signaling, segmenting, multimedia, spatial contiguity, and pretraining. Principles of self-explanation and interactivity are also applied. Four experiments on the Mammography Problem showed that these principles help participants answer the questions...... that an instructional approach to improving human performance in Bayesian inference is a promising direction....

  13. A man and his island: The island mirror in Michael Crummey’s Sweetland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurie Brinklow

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Between 1946 and 1975, dozens of islands and outports in the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador were abandoned as part of a government resettlement policy. Families and communities were torn apart, and a culture and way of life that revolved around the fishery changed irrevocably. The practice, which continues to this day, has been well documented, particularly by artists and writers. Michael Crummey’s 2014 novel Sweetland is a recent iteration. The relationship between humans and place is complex: on an island, with compressed space and a very real boundary that is the ocean, emotional attachments to one’s place are often heightened and distilled. What happens when a person is displaced from his or her island; when bonds of attachment are severed and one’s mirrored double is destroyed? Sweetland offers a fictional lens through which we see an example of a mirrored relationship between an island protagonist and his island setting. Exploring themes of attachment to place, and what Barry Lopez calls a “storied” or “reciprocal” relationship with the land, this paper examines what happens to a man when confronted with leaving an island he knows as deeply as his own body and soul; and how the island reacts.

  14. Inferring Phylogenetic Networks Using PhyloNet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Dingqiao; Yu, Yun; Zhu, Jiafan; Nakhleh, Luay

    2018-07-01

    PhyloNet was released in 2008 as a software package for representing and analyzing phylogenetic networks. At the time of its release, the main functionalities in PhyloNet consisted of measures for comparing network topologies and a single heuristic for reconciling gene trees with a species tree. Since then, PhyloNet has grown significantly. The software package now includes a wide array of methods for inferring phylogenetic networks from data sets of unlinked loci while accounting for both reticulation (e.g., hybridization) and incomplete lineage sorting. In particular, PhyloNet now allows for maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian inference of phylogenetic networks from gene tree estimates. Furthermore, Bayesian inference directly from sequence data (sequence alignments or biallelic markers) is implemented. Maximum parsimony is based on an extension of the "minimizing deep coalescences" criterion to phylogenetic networks, whereas maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference are based on the multispecies network coalescent. All methods allow for multiple individuals per species. As computing the likelihood of a phylogenetic network is computationally hard, PhyloNet allows for evaluation and inference of networks using a pseudolikelihood measure. PhyloNet summarizes the results of the various analyzes and generates phylogenetic networks in the extended Newick format that is readily viewable by existing visualization software.

  15. Island development: Local governance under globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huei-Min Tsai

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Issues surrounding island development have generated a growing volume of research. What does it mean to develop? How can island communities maintain control over development processes to the benefit of the local economy, rather than seeing economic flows enter and exit the island with little or a primarily negative impact? And how important is local knowledge for edifying local governance and enhancing potentials for innovation in island development? Island histories have repeatedly been forwarded as exemplars and ‘lessons’ for global learning on (unsustainability. To consider these issues, we have selected a number of papers from among the presentations given at the International Geographical Union’s Commission on Islands Conference, Island Development: Local Economy, Culture, Innovation and Sustainability, which took place in the Penghu Archipelago, Taiwan, 1–5 October 2013. These papers serve as examples of how the processes of globalization have penetrated the borders and changed the political and economic structures of islands. They also explore how island-based innovations in science, technology, culture, and formal or informal governance might contribute to sustainable island development.

  16. Active inference and learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, Karl; FitzGerald, Thomas; Rigoli, Francesco; Schwartenbeck, Philipp; O Doherty, John; Pezzulo, Giovanni

    2016-09-01

    This paper offers an active inference account of choice behaviour and learning. It focuses on the distinction between goal-directed and habitual behaviour and how they contextualise each other. We show that habits emerge naturally (and autodidactically) from sequential policy optimisation when agents are equipped with state-action policies. In active inference, behaviour has explorative (epistemic) and exploitative (pragmatic) aspects that are sensitive to ambiguity and risk respectively, where epistemic (ambiguity-resolving) behaviour enables pragmatic (reward-seeking) behaviour and the subsequent emergence of habits. Although goal-directed and habitual policies are usually associated with model-based and model-free schemes, we find the more important distinction is between belief-free and belief-based schemes. The underlying (variational) belief updating provides a comprehensive (if metaphorical) process theory for several phenomena, including the transfer of dopamine responses, reversal learning, habit formation and devaluation. Finally, we show that active inference reduces to a classical (Bellman) scheme, in the absence of ambiguity. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  17. Energy Transition Initiative, Island Energy Snapshot - British Virgin Islands (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-03-01

    This profile provides a snapshot of the energy landscape of the British Virgin Islands (BVI), one of three sets of the Virgin Island territories in an archipelago making up the northern portion of the Lesser Antilles.

  18. Active Inference, homeostatic regulation and adaptive behavioural control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pezzulo, Giovanni; Rigoli, Francesco; Friston, Karl

    2015-11-01

    We review a theory of homeostatic regulation and adaptive behavioural control within the Active Inference framework. Our aim is to connect two research streams that are usually considered independently; namely, Active Inference and associative learning theories of animal behaviour. The former uses a probabilistic (Bayesian) formulation of perception and action, while the latter calls on multiple (Pavlovian, habitual, goal-directed) processes for homeostatic and behavioural control. We offer a synthesis these classical processes and cast them as successive hierarchical contextualisations of sensorimotor constructs, using the generative models that underpin Active Inference. This dissolves any apparent mechanistic distinction between the optimization processes that mediate classical control or learning. Furthermore, we generalize the scope of Active Inference by emphasizing interoceptive inference and homeostatic regulation. The ensuing homeostatic (or allostatic) perspective provides an intuitive explanation for how priors act as drives or goals to enslave action, and emphasises the embodied nature of inference. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  19. Generative Inferences Based on Learned Relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Dawn; Lu, Hongjing; Holyoak, Keith J.

    2017-01-01

    A key property of relational representations is their "generativity": From partial descriptions of relations between entities, additional inferences can be drawn about other entities. A major theoretical challenge is to demonstrate how the capacity to make generative inferences could arise as a result of learning relations from…

  20. Geology of Saipan, Mariana Islands; Part 4, Submarine topography and shoal-water ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloud, Preston E.

    1959-01-01

    The topography of the sea floor within 10 miles of Saipan broadly resembles that of the land. Eastward, toward the Mariana trench, slopes are about 6°, without prominent benches or scarps. This is inferred to indicate easterly continuation of generally pyroclastic bedrock. The westward slope averages 2° to 3° and consists mainly of nearly flat benches and westfacing scarps. This is taken to imply westward continuation of a limestone bench-and-fault-scarp topography. Projection of known faults to sea and through Tinian, on the basis of topographic trends, suggests a pattern of west-dipping normal faults that parallel the strike of the Mariana ridge and affect the shape and position of islands at the crest of the ridge.

  1. Demographic Ageing on Croatian Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivo Nejašmić

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the changes in the population structure of the Croatian islands by age, warns of the degree of ageing, provides spatial differentiation of this process and presents perspective of ageing at the level of settlement. Typing of population ageing is based on scores and has seven types. The total island population in 2011 belongs to the type 5 – very old population. Almost a half of the settlements (out of 303 have been affected by the highest levels of ageing (types 6 and 7. It was found that a quarter of island settlements will become “dead villages” in a foreseeable future; most of them are on small islands but also in the interior of larger islands. These are villages decaying in every respect, in which the way of life, as we know it, veins and goes out. The present ageing villagers are their last residents in most cases. Eve¬rything suggests that demographic recovery of the islands is not possible with the forces in situ. It is important to strike a balance between the needs and opportunities in order to successfully organize life on the islands, both small and large ones, and the fact is that there is a continuing disparity, which is especially profound in small islands. A sensitive and selective approach is needed to overcome the unfavourable demographic trends. Therefore it is necessary to respect the particularities of indi¬vidual islands and island groups in devising development strategy. Solutions to the problems must come of the local and wider community in synergy with relevant professional and scientific institutions. However, if the solutions are not found or measures do not give results, if the islands are left to desorganisation and senilisation, a part of the islands will become a wasteland. With regard to the value of this area whose wealth are people in the first place, this would be an intolerable civilization decline.

  2. Snake and bird predation drive the repeated convergent evolution of correlated life history traits and phenotype in the Izu Island Scincid lizard (Plestiodon latiscutatus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew C Brandley

    Full Text Available Predation may create strong natural selection pressure on the phenotype and life history characteristics of prey species. The Izu scincid lizards (Plestiodon latiscutatus that inhabit the four Japanese Izu Islands with only bird predators are drab brown, mature later, lay small clutches of large eggs, and hatch large neonates. In contrast, skinks on seven islands with both snake and bird predators are conspicuously colored, mature early, lay large clutches of small eggs, and hatch small neonates. We test the hypothesis that these suites of traits have evolved independently on each island via natural selection pressures from one of two predator regimes--birds-only and birds + snakes. Using two mtDNA genes and a nuclear locus, we infer a time-calibrated phylogeny of P. latiscutatus that reveals a basal split between Mikura and all islands south, and Miyake, all islands north, and the Izu Peninsula. Populations inhabiting Miyake, Niijima, Shikine, and Toshima are not monophyletic, suggesting either multiple colonizations or an artifact of incomplete lineage sorting (ILS. We therefore developed novel phylogenetic comparative analyses that assume either a multiple colonization or more restrictive single colonization ILS scenario and found 1 statistically significant support for the of different suites of phenotypic and life history characteristics with the presence of bird-only or bird + snake predator assemblages, and 2 strong phylogenetic support for at least two independent derivations of either the "bird-only" or "snakes + birds" phenotypes regardless of colonization scenario. Finally, our time-calibrated phylogeographic analysis supports the conclusion that the ancestor to modern Izu Island P. latiscutatus dispersed from the mainland to the Izu proto-islands between 3-7.6 million years ago (Ma. These lineages remained present in the area during successive formation of the islands, with one lineage re-colonizing the mainland 0.24-0.7 Ma.

  3. The Island Smart Energy System and Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Zheng; Billanes, Joy Dalmacio; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

    2017-01-01

    developing island smart energy systems with the integration of renewable energy resources can increase the energy supply and address the global island energy issues. The island smart energy system operates either in a single-island or in multi-islands. However the island characteristics and influ...

  4. Terrestrial bird population trends on Aguiguan (Goat Island), Mariana Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amidon, Fred; Camp, Richard J.; Marshall, Ann P.; Pratt, Thane K.; Williams, Laura; Radley, Paul; Cruz, Justine B.

    2014-01-01

    The island of Aguiguan is part of the Mariana archipelago and currently supports populations of four endemic species, including one endemic genus, Cleptornis. Bird population trends since 1982 were recently assessed on the neighbouring islands of Saipan, Tinian, and Rota indicating declines in some native species. Point-transect surveys were conducted in 2008 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to assess population densities and trends on Aguiguan. Densities for six of the nine native birds—White-throated Ground-dove Gallicolumba xanthonura, Collared Kingfisher Todiramphus chloris, Rufous Fantail Rhipidura rufifrons, Golden White-eye Cleptornis marchei, Bridled White-eye Zosterops conspicillatus and Micronesian Starling Aplonis opaca—and the non-native bird—Island Collared-dove Streptopelia bitorquata—were significantly greater in 2008 than in 1982. No differences in densities were detected among the surveys for Mariana Fruit-dove Ptilinopus roseicapilla, and Micronesian MyzomelaMyzomela rubratra. Three federally and locally listed endangered birds—Nightingale Reed-warbler Acrocephalus luscinius, Mariana Swiftlet Collocalia bartschi, and Micronesian Megapode Megapodius laperous)—were either not detected during the point-transect counts, the surveys were not appropriate for the species, or the numbers of birds detected were too small to estimate densities. The factors behind the increasing trends for some species are unknown but may be related to increased forest cover on the island since 1982. With declining trends for some native species on neighbouring islands, the increasing and stable trends on Aguiguan is good news for forest bird populations in the region, as Aguiguan populations can help support conservation efforts on other islands in the archipelago.

  5. Renewable technologies for generation systems in islands and their application to Cozumel Island, Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Mendoza Vizcaino, Javier; Sumper, Andreas; Sudrià Andreu, Antoni; Ramirez, J.M.

    2016-01-01

    The electric generation systems on islands are based generally on fossil fuel. This fact and its supply make the electricity cost higher than in systems used in the continent. In this article, we present a review of the renewable energy generation systems on islands. To do it we analysed 77 islands from 45 different countries. This work will allow us to know how the implementation of renewable energy sources could help these islands in developing a renewable and sustainable energy sector, inc...

  6. Parametric statistical inference basic theory and modern approaches

    CERN Document Server

    Zacks, Shelemyahu; Tsokos, C P

    1981-01-01

    Parametric Statistical Inference: Basic Theory and Modern Approaches presents the developments and modern trends in statistical inference to students who do not have advanced mathematical and statistical preparation. The topics discussed in the book are basic and common to many fields of statistical inference and thus serve as a jumping board for in-depth study. The book is organized into eight chapters. Chapter 1 provides an overview of how the theory of statistical inference is presented in subsequent chapters. Chapter 2 briefly discusses statistical distributions and their properties. Chapt

  7. CRED Gridded Bathymetry near Laysan Island (100-006), Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — File 100-006b is a 60-m ASCII grid of depth data collected near Laysan Island in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands as of May 2003. This grid has been produced as...

  8. CRED Gridded Bathymetry near Lisianski Island (100-001), Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — File 100-001b is a 60-m ASCII grid of depth data collected near Lisianski Island in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands as of May 2003. This grid has been produced as...

  9. 75 FR 61993 - Amendment of Class E Airspace; Kwajalein Island, Marshall Islands, RMI

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-07

    ...This action removes the reference to the Kwajalein Tactacial Air Navigation (TACAN) System from the legal description of the Class E airspace areas for Kwajalein Island, Bucholz AAF, Marshall Islands, RMI. The U.S. Army notified the FAA that the Kwajalein TACAN was decommissioned. This action corrects the legal descriptions for the Class E airspace areas in the vicinity of the Marshall Islands.

  10. Variational inference & deep learning: A new synthesis

    OpenAIRE

    Kingma, D.P.

    2017-01-01

    In this thesis, Variational Inference and Deep Learning: A New Synthesis, we propose novel solutions to the problems of variational (Bayesian) inference, generative modeling, representation learning, semi-supervised learning, and stochastic optimization.

  11. Variational inference & deep learning : A new synthesis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kingma, D.P.

    2017-01-01

    In this thesis, Variational Inference and Deep Learning: A New Synthesis, we propose novel solutions to the problems of variational (Bayesian) inference, generative modeling, representation learning, semi-supervised learning, and stochastic optimization.

  12. Paleocene Picrites of Davis Strait: Products of a Plume or Plates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beutel, E. K.; Clarke, D. B.

    2017-12-01

    Voluminous, subaerial, ultra-depleted, 62 Ma, primary picritic lavas occur on both sides of Davis Strait separating Baffin Island and West Greenland. Temporally, the picrites are coeval with the initiation of sea-floor spreading in Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay around 62 Ma. Petrogenetically, the chemical characteristics of these picrites (MgO = 18-21 wt. %; K2O = 0.01-0.20 wt. %; 87Sr/86Sri ≈ 0.7030; ɛNdi ≈ +5.2-8.6; 3He/4He ≤ 49.5RA) demand only derivation by partial melting of highly depleted subcontinental lithospheric mantle (SCLM) at a pressure of 4 GPa, followed by rapid ascent to the surface, but do not necessarily require high temperatures or high degrees of partial melting. Tectonically, these picrites formed in thick Archean and Paleoproterozoic cratonic terranes during Paleogene rifting between Greenland and North America. Structurally, the picrites are related to the major intersection of a NNW suture zone under Baffin Bay and the E-W trending Paleoproterozoic Nagssugtoqidian Fold Belt. During the late Mesozoic, ENE extension created normal faulted basins quasi-parallel with the NNW suture and thinned the mantle lithosphere. Elastic finite element models and present day studies of crustal extension show that the thicker Nagssugtoqidian Fold Belt underwent less thinning and extension than the NNW suture zone in the Archean Rae craton. These extensional disparities occur at the orthogonal intersection of pre-existing E-W trending strike-slip faults in the thicker Nagssugtoqidian Fold Belt with the NNW thinned Archean suture zone, and likely resulted in the formation of one or more pull-apart basins. Because the strike-slip faults are ancient suture zones, trans-tension within these suture zones easily reached 120 km, creating not only decompression melting in the SCLM, but also a pathway for the picritic melts to rapidly reach the surface. Such a purely tectonic model requires no spatially or temporally improbable deep mantle plume for generation of

  13. Simulation of saltwater movement in the Upper Floridan aquifer in the Savannah, Georgia-Hilton Head Island, South Carolina, area, predevelopment-2004, and projected movement for 2000 pumping conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provost, Alden M.; Payne, Dorothy F.; Voss, Clifford I.

    2006-01-01

    A digital model was developed to simulate ground-water flow and solute transport for the Upper Floridan aquifer in the Savannah, Georgia-Hilton Head Island, South Carolina, area. The model was used to (1) simulate trends of saltwater intrusion from predevelopment to the present day (1885-2004), (2) project these trends from the present day into the future, and (3) evaluate the relative influence of different assumptions regarding initial and boundary conditions and physical properties. The model is based on a regional, single-density ground-water flow model of coastal Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida. Variable-density ground-water flow and solute transport were simulated using the U.S. Geological Survey finite-element, variable-density solute-transport simulator SUTRA, 1885-2004. The model comprises seven layers: the surficial aquifer system, the Brunswick aquifer system, the Upper Floridan aquifer, the Lower Floridan aquifer, and the intervening confining units. The model was calibrated to September 1998 water levels, for single-density freshwater conditions, then refined using variable density and chloride concentration to give a reasonable match to the trend in the chloride distribution in the Upper Floridan aquifer inferred from field measurements of specific conductance made during 2000, 2002, 2003, and 2004. The model was modified to simulate solute transport by allowing saltwater to enter the system through localized areas near the northern end of Hilton Head Island, at Pinckney Island, and near the Colleton River, and was calibrated to match chloride concentrations inferred from field measurements of specific conductance. This simulation is called the 'Base Case.'

  14. Returning from the Horizon: Introducing Urban Island Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xavier Barceló Pinya

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Island studies tends to focus on peripheral, isolated, and marginal aspects of island communities, while urban studies has showed scant awareness of islandness: Although many people research cities on islands, there is little tradition of researching island cities or urban archipelagos per se. Island cities (densely populated small islands and population centres of larger islands and archipelagos nevertheless play import cultural, economic, political, and environmental roles on local, regional, and global scales. Many major cities and ports have developed on small islands, and even villages can fulfil important urban functions on lightly populated islands. Island concepts are also deployed to metaphorically describe developments in urban space. The journal Urban Island Studies explores island and urban processes around the world, taking an island approach to urban research and an urban approach to island research.

  15. Barrier island facies models and recognition criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulhern, J.; Johnson, C. L.

    2017-12-01

    Barrier island outcrops record transgressive shoreline motion at geologic timescales, providing integral clues to understanding how coastlines respond to rising sea levels. However, barrier island deposits are difficult to recognize. While significant progress has been made in understanding the modern coastal morphodynamics, this insight is not fully leveraged in existing barrier island facies models. Excellent outcrop exposures of the paralic Upper Cretaceous Straight Cliffs Formation of southern Utah provide an opportunity to revise facies models and recognition criteria for barrier island deposits. Preserved barrier islands are composed of three main architectural elements (shorefaces, tidal inlets, and tidal channels) which occur independently or in combination to create larger-scale barrier island deposits. Barrier island shorefaces record progradation, while barrier island tidal inlets record lateral migration, and barrier island tidal channels record aggradation within the tidal inlet. Four facies associations are used to describe and characterize these barrier island architectural elements. Barrier islands occur in association with backarrier fill and internally contain lower and upper shoreface, high-energy upper shoreface, and tidal channel facies. Barrier islands bound lagoons or estuaries, and are distinguished from other shoreface deposits by their internal facies and geometry, association with backbarrier facies, and position within transgressive successions. Tidal processes, in particular tidal inlet migration and reworking of the upper shoreface, also distinguish barrier island deposits. Existing barrier island models highlight the short term heterogeneous and dynamic nature of barrier island systems, yet overlook processes tied to geologic time scales, such as multi-directional motion, erosion, and reworking, and their expressions in preserved barrier island strata. This study uses characteristic outcrop expressions of barrier island successions to

  16. Gridded multibeam bathymetry of Howland Island, Pacific Remote Island Areas, Central Pacific

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Gridded bathymetry at 40m resolution surrounding Howland Island, within the Pacific Remote Island Areas - Central Pacific Ocean. Bottom coverage was achieved in...

  17. Ensemble stacking mitigates biases in inference of synaptic connectivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brendan Chambers

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available A promising alternative to directly measuring the anatomical connections in a neuronal population is inferring the connections from the activity. We employ simulated spiking neuronal networks to compare and contrast commonly used inference methods that identify likely excitatory synaptic connections using statistical regularities in spike timing. We find that simple adjustments to standard algorithms improve inference accuracy: A signing procedure improves the power of unsigned mutual-information-based approaches and a correction that accounts for differences in mean and variance of background timing relationships, such as those expected to be induced by heterogeneous firing rates, increases the sensitivity of frequency-based methods. We also find that different inference methods reveal distinct subsets of the synaptic network and each method exhibits different biases in the accurate detection of reciprocity and local clustering. To correct for errors and biases specific to single inference algorithms, we combine methods into an ensemble. Ensemble predictions, generated as a linear combination of multiple inference algorithms, are more sensitive than the best individual measures alone, and are more faithful to ground-truth statistics of connectivity, mitigating biases specific to single inference methods. These weightings generalize across simulated datasets, emphasizing the potential for the broad utility of ensemble-based approaches. Mapping the routing of spikes through local circuitry is crucial for understanding neocortical computation. Under appropriate experimental conditions, these maps can be used to infer likely patterns of synaptic recruitment, linking activity to underlying anatomical connections. Such inferences help to reveal the synaptic implementation of population dynamics and computation. We compare a number of standard functional measures to infer underlying connectivity. We find that regularization impacts measures

  18. Constraint Satisfaction Inference : Non-probabilistic Global Inference for Sequence Labelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Canisius, S.V.M.; van den Bosch, A.; Daelemans, W.; Basili, R.; Moschitti, A.

    2006-01-01

    We present a new method for performing sequence labelling based on the idea of using a machine-learning classifier to generate several possible output sequences, and then applying an inference procedure to select the best sequence among those. Most sequence labelling methods following a similar

  19. Reasoning about Informal Statistical Inference: One Statistician's View

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossman, Allan J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper identifies key concepts and issues associated with the reasoning of informal statistical inference. I focus on key ideas of inference that I think all students should learn, including at secondary level as well as tertiary. I argue that a fundamental component of inference is to go beyond the data at hand, and I propose that statistical…

  20. Experimental Evaluation of PV Inverter Anti-Islanding with Grid Support Functions in Multi-Inverter Island Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoke, Anderson [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Nelson, Austin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Miller, Brian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Chakraborty, Sudipta [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bell, Frances [SolarCity, San Mateo, CA (United States); McCarty, Michael [SolarCity, San Mateo, CA (United States)

    2016-07-01

    As PV and other DER systems are connected to the grid at increased penetration levels, island detection may become more challenging for two reasons: 1.) In islands containing many DERs, active inverter-based anti-islanding methods may have more difficulty detecting islands because each individual inverter's efforts to detect the island may be interfered with by the other inverters in the island. 2.) The increasing numbers of DERs are leading to new requirements that DERs ride through grid disturbances and even actively try to regulate grid voltage and frequency back towards nominal operating conditions. These new grid support requirements may directly or indirectly interfere with anti-islanding controls. This report describes a series of tests designed to examine the impacts of both grid support functions and multi-inverter islands on anti-islanding effectiveness. Crucially, the multi-inverter anti-islanding tests described in this report examine scenarios with multiple inverters connected to multiple different points on the grid. While this so-called 'solar subdivision' scenario has been examined to some extent through simulation, this is the first known work to test it using hardware inverters. This was accomplished through the use of power hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) simulation, which allows the hardware inverters to be connected to a real-time transient simulation of an electric power system that can be easily reconfigured to test various distribution circuit scenarios. The anti-islanding test design was a modified version of the unintentional islanding test in IEEE Standard 1547.1, which creates a balanced, resonant island with the intent of creating a highly challenging condition for island detection. Three common, commercially available single-phase PV inverters from three different manufacturers were tested. The first part of this work examined each inverter individually using a series of pure hardware resistive-inductive-capacitive (RLC

  1. Meta-learning framework applied in bioinformatics inference system design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arredondo, Tomás; Ormazábal, Wladimir

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes a meta-learner inference system development framework which is applied and tested in the implementation of bioinformatic inference systems. These inference systems are used for the systematic classification of the best candidates for inclusion in bacterial metabolic pathway maps. This meta-learner-based approach utilises a workflow where the user provides feedback with final classification decisions which are stored in conjunction with analysed genetic sequences for periodic inference system training. The inference systems were trained and tested with three different data sets related to the bacterial degradation of aromatic compounds. The analysis of the meta-learner-based framework involved contrasting several different optimisation methods with various different parameters. The obtained inference systems were also contrasted with other standard classification methods with accurate prediction capabilities observed.

  2. Gridded multibeam bathymetry of Baker Island, Pacific Remote Island Areas, Central Pacific

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Gridded bathymetry at 40m resolution surrounding Baker Island, within the Pacific Remote Island Areas - Central Pacific Ocean. Bottom coverage was achieved in depths...

  3. The life and adventures of an eight-legged castaway: Colonization and diversification of Philisca ghost spiders on Robinson Crusoe Island (Araneae, Anyphaenidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soto, Eduardo M; Labarque, Facundo M; Ceccarelli, F Sara; Arnedo, Miquel A; Pizarro-Araya, Jaime; Ramírez, Martín J

    2017-02-01

    Oceanic archipelagoes, by their young origin and isolation, provide privileged settings to study the origin and diversification of species. Here, we study the anyphaenid spider genus Philisca, endemic to the Valdivian temperate rainforest, which includes species living both on the mainland as well as on the Robison Crusoe Island in the Juan Fernández archipelago. Anyphaenids, as many spiders, are potentially good colonizers due their ability for ballooning, an airborne dispersal mediated by strands of silk that are caught in the wind. We use a molecular approach to estimate both the phylogenetic relationships and the timeframe of species diversification of Philisca, with the aim to infer its evolutionary history. We further estimate the rates of speciation on both the insular and continental Philisca species and score the microhabitat used by each species and their sizes as a proxy to evaluate ecological niche diversification within the island. Most analyses support the monophyly of Philisca, with the exclusion of Philisca tripunctata. Our results reveal colonization from a single lineage that postdated the origin of the island, followed by rapid (∼2Ma) diversification. The ancestral microhabitat was most likely leaf-dwelling but we identify two independent microhabitat shifts. Our data provides evidence that Philisca has undergone an adaptive radiation on the Robison Crusoe Island. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Vegetation assessment of forests of Pagan Island, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratt, Linda W.

    2011-01-01

    As part of the Marianas Expedition Wildlife Surveys-2010, the forest vegetation of the island of Pagan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), was sampled with a series of systematic plots along 13 transects established for monitoring forest bird populations. Shrubland and grassland were also sampled in the northern half of the island. Data collected were woody plant density, tree diameter at breast height, woody plant density in height classes below 2 m, and ground cover measured with the point-intercept method. Coconut forests (Cocos nucifera) were generally found to have low native tree diversity, little regeneration of trees and shrubs in the forest understory, and little live ground cover. The sole exception was a coconut-dominated forest of the northeast side of the island that exhibited high native tree diversity and a large number of young native trees in the understory. Ironwood (Casuarina equisetifolia) forests on the northern half of the island were nearly monocultures with almost no trees other than ironwood in vegetation plots, few woody plants in the understory, and low ground cover dominated by native ferns. Mixed native forests of both northern and southern sections of the island had a diversity of native tree species in both the canopy and the sparse understory. Ground cover of native forests in the north had a mix of native and alien species, but that of the southern half of the island was dominated by native ferns and woody plants.

  5. Island biogeography of marine organisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinheiro, Hudson T.; Bernardi, Giacomo; Simon, Thiony; Joyeux, Jean-Christophe; Macieira, Raphael M.; Gasparini, João Luiz; Rocha, Claudia; Rocha, Luiz A.

    2017-09-01

    Studies on the distribution and evolution of organisms on oceanic islands have advanced towards a dynamic perspective, where terrestrial endemicity results from island geographical aspects and geological history intertwined with sea-level fluctuations. Diversification on these islands may follow neutral models, decreasing over time as niches are filled, or disequilibrium states and progression rules, where richness and endemism rise with the age of the archipelago owing to the splitting of ancestral lineages (cladogenesis). However, marine organisms have received comparatively little scientific attention. Therefore, island and seamount evolutionary processes in the aquatic environment remain unclear. Here we analyse the evolutionary history of reef fishes that are endemic to a volcanic ridge of seamounts and islands to understand their relations to island evolution and sea-level fluctuations. We also test how this evolutionary history fits island biogeography theory. We found that most endemic species have evolved recently (Pleistocene epoch), during a period of recurrent sea-level changes and intermittent connectivity caused by repeated aerial exposure of seamounts, a finding that is consistent with an ephemeral ecological speciation process. Similar to findings for terrestrial biodiversity, our data suggest that the marine speciation rate on islands is negatively correlated with immigration rate. However, because marine species disperse better than terrestrial species, most niches are filled by immigration: speciation increases with the random accumulation of species with low dispersal ability, with few opportunities for in situ cladogenesis and adaptive radiation. Moreover, we confirm that sea-level fluctuations and seamount location play a critical role in marine evolution, mainly by intermittently providing stepping stones for island colonization.

  6. Geographical origin of Leucobryum boninense Sull. & Lesq. (Leucobryaceae, Musci) endemic to the Bonin Islands, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oguri, Emiko; Yamaguchi, Tomio; Tsubota, Hiromi; Deguchi, Hironori; Murakami, Noriaki

    2013-04-01

    Leucobryum boninense is endemic to the Bonin Islands, Japan, and its related species are widely distributed in Asia and the Pacific. We aimed to clarify the phylogenetic relationships among Leucobryum species and infer the origin of L. boninense. We also describe the utility of the chloroplast trnK intron including matK for resolving the phylogenetic relationships among Leucobryum species, as phylogenetic analyses using trnK intron and/or matK have not been performed well in bryophytes to date. Fifty samples containing 15 species of Leucobryum from Asia and the Pacific were examined for six chloroplast DNA regions including rbcL, rps4, partial 5' trnK intron, matK, partial 3' trnK intron, and trnL-F intergenic spacer plus one nuclear DNA region including ITS. A molecular phylogenetic tree showed that L. boninense made a clade with L. scabrum from Japan, Taiwan and, Hong Kong; L. javense which is widely distributed in East and Southeast Asia, and L. pachyphyllum and L. seemannii restricted to the Hawaii Islands, as well as with L. scaberulum from the Ryukyus, Japan, Taiwan, and southeastern China. Leucobryum boninense from various islands of the Bonin Islands made a monophylic group that was closely related to L. scabrum and L. javense from Japan. Therefore, L. boninense may have evolved from L. scabrum from Japan, Taiwan, or Hong Kong, or L. javense from Japan. We also described the utility of trnK intron including matK. A percentage of the parsimony-informative characters in trnK intron sequence data (5.8%) was significantly higher than that from other chloroplast regions, rbcL (2.4%) and rps4 (3.2%) sequence data. Nucleotide sequence data of the trnK intron including matK are more informative than other chloroplast DNA regions for identifying the phylogenetic relationships among Leucobryum species.

  7. Interaction of bootstrap-current-driven magnetic islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hegna, C.C.; Callen, J.D.

    1991-10-01

    The formation and interaction of fluctuating neoclassical pressure gradient driven magnetic islands is examined. The interaction of magnetic islands produces a stochastic region around the separatrices of the islands. This interaction causes the island pressure profile to be broadened, reducing the island bootstrap current and drive for the magnetic island. A model is presented that describes the magnetic topology as a bath of interacting magnetic islands with low to medium poloidal mode number (m congruent 3-30). The islands grow by the bootstrap current effect and damp due to the flattening of the pressure profile near the island separatrix caused by the interaction of the magnetic islands. The effect of this sporadic growth and decay of the islands (''magnetic bubbling'') is not normally addressed in theories of plasma transport due to magnetic fluctuations. The nature of the transport differs from statistical approaches to magnetic turbulence since the radial step size of the plasma transport is now given by the characteristic island width. This model suggests that tokamak experiments have relatively short-lived, coherent, long wavelength magnetic oscillations present in the steep pressure-gradient regions of the plasma. 42 refs

  8. Statistical inference and Aristotle's Rhetoric.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macdonald, Ranald R

    2004-11-01

    Formal logic operates in a closed system where all the information relevant to any conclusion is present, whereas this is not the case when one reasons about events and states of the world. Pollard and Richardson drew attention to the fact that the reasoning behind statistical tests does not lead to logically justifiable conclusions. In this paper statistical inferences are defended not by logic but by the standards of everyday reasoning. Aristotle invented formal logic, but argued that people mostly get at the truth with the aid of enthymemes--incomplete syllogisms which include arguing from examples, analogies and signs. It is proposed that statistical tests work in the same way--in that they are based on examples, invoke the analogy of a model and use the size of the effect under test as a sign that the chance hypothesis is unlikely. Of existing theories of statistical inference only a weak version of Fisher's takes this into account. Aristotle anticipated Fisher by producing an argument of the form that there were too many cases in which an outcome went in a particular direction for that direction to be plausibly attributed to chance. We can therefore conclude that Aristotle would have approved of statistical inference and there is a good reason for calling this form of statistical inference classical.

  9. Some data on the avifauna of the Island of Roti, Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verheijen, J.A.J.

    1976-01-01

    INTRODUCTION For several years I had been looking for an opportunity to visit the island of Roti (Rotti, Roté, Loté). Junge (1954) mentions that only once an ornithological collection was made in the island, namely by Dr. H. F. C. ten Kate, an ethnologist who visited the island in 1891. Büttikofer

  10. Children's and adults' judgments of the certainty of deductive inferences, inductive inferences, and guesses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillow, Bradford H; Pearson, Raeanne M; Hecht, Mary; Bremer, Amanda

    2010-01-01

    Children and adults rated their own certainty following inductive inferences, deductive inferences, and guesses. Beginning in kindergarten, participants rated deductions as more certain than weak inductions or guesses. Deductions were rated as more certain than strong inductions beginning in Grade 3, and fourth-grade children and adults differentiated strong inductions, weak inductions, and informed guesses from pure guesses. By Grade 3, participants also gave different types of explanations for their deductions and inductions. These results are discussed in relation to children's concepts of cognitive processes, logical reasoning, and epistemological development.

  11. Islanded operation of distribution networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    This report summarises the results of a study assessing the benefits and risks to distribution network of generator islanding and examining the technical, commercial and regulatory changes required to facilitate the operation of islanding. The background to the study is traced, and details are given of a literature review, the technical criteria for operating sections of the network in islanding mode, and the impact of islanding on trading. Case studies and a detailed implementation plan, data acquisition, and commercial incentives are discussed.

  12. Islanded operation of distribution networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    This report summarises the results of a study assessing the benefits and risks to distribution network of generator islanding and examining the technical, commercial and regulatory changes required to facilitate the operation of islanding. The background to the study is traced, and details are given of a literature review, the technical criteria for operating sections of the network in islanding mode, and the impact of islanding on trading. Case studies and a detailed implementation plan, data acquisition, and commercial incentives are discussed

  13. HYDROGEOLOGICAL RELATIONS ON KARSTIFIED ISLANDS - VIS ISLAND CASE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Terzić

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available An approach to the hydrogeological investigations on Adriatic islands is presented on the Island of Vis case study. Infiltration, accumulation and discharge of the groundwater occur in karstified rock mass. Hydrogeological relations are mostly a consequence of the geological setting, because of the complete hydrogeologic barrier in Komiža bay, and relative barrier in the area of karst poljes. Significant research was performed in the 1999 – 2000 period aimed of better understanding of hydrogeological relations. These investigations, as well as reinterpretation of some previously known data, included structural geology, hydrogeology, hydrology and hydrochemistry. Approximate rock mass hydraulic conductivity calculation is also shown, as well as level of its usability in such terrain. Based on all these methods, it is possible to conclude that on the Island of Vis there is no saline water present underneath the entire island. There is only a saline water wedge which is formed on the top of relatively impermeable base rock, some few tens of meters under recent sea level. With such a model, and taking in account the hydrological balance, it is possible to conclude that there is possibility of higher amount of groundwater exploitation then it is today (the paper is published in Croatian.

  14. Stable Isotopic Composition of Dissolved Organic Nitrogen Fueling Brown Tide in a Semi-Arid Texas Estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, J.; Felix, J. D. D.; Wetz, M.; Cira, E.

    2017-12-01

    Harmful algal blooms (HABs) have the potential to adversely affect the water quality of estuaries and, consequently, their ability to support healthy and diverse ecosystems. Since the early 1990s, Baffin Bay, a semi-arid south Texas estuary, has progressively experienced harmful algal blooms. The primary species of HAB native to the Baffin Bay region, Aureoumbra lagunensis, is unable to utilize nitrate as a nutrient source, but instead relies on forms of reduced nitrogen (such as dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) and ammonium (NH4+)) for survival. DON levels in Baffin Bay (77 ± 10 µM) exceed the DON concentrations of not only typical Texas estuaries, but estuaries worldwide. Additionally, DON accounts for 90% of the total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) in Baffin Bay, followed by NH4+ at 8%, and NO3-+NO2- contributing 2%. Due to the dependence of A. lagunensis on the reduced forms of nitrogen as an energy source and the elevated concentrations of DON throughout the bay, it is important to identify the origin of this nitrogen as well as how it's being processed as it cycles through the ecosystem. The presented work investigates the stable isotopic composition of reactive nitrogen (Nr) (δ15N-DON, δ15N-NH4+, and δ15N-NO3-) in Baffin Bay samples collected monthly at nine stations over the period of one year. The work provides preliminary evidence of Nr sources and mechanisms driving favorable conditions for HAB proliferation. This information can be useful and applicable to estuarine ecosystems in various settings, advancing scientific progress towards mitigating blooms. Additionally, since the elevated concentrations of DON make Baffin Bay uniquely suited to investigate its sources and processing, this project will aid in characterizing the role of this largely unstudied form of Nr, which could provide insight and change perceptions about the role of DON in nitrogen dynamics.

  15. Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehan, Sara; Song, Yun S

    2016-03-01

    Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data) to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest). We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history). Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep) or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme.

  16. Strategic Environmental Assessment practices in European small islands: Insights from Azores and Orkney islands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Polido, Alexandra, E-mail: a.polido@campus.fct.unl.pt [CENSE, Center for Environmental and Sustainability Research, Departamento de Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Campus da Caparica, 2829-516 Caparica (Portugal); João, Elsa, E-mail: elsa.joao@strath.ac.uk [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Level 5, James Weir Building, 75 Montrose Street, Glasgow G1 1XJ, Scotland (United Kingdom); Ramos, Tomás B., E-mail: tabr@fct.unl.pt [CENSE, Center for Environmental and Sustainability Research, Departamento de Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Campus da Caparica, 2829-516 Caparica (Portugal)

    2016-02-15

    The literature concerning Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) often refers to the importance of context-specific approaches. However, there is a lack of systematised and consistent studies that enhance tailor-made SEA practices and procedures. Small islands are bounded units of study which may help explore SEA theory and practice in special territories. Small islands present particular features and unique values, such as, small size and population, geographic isolation, limited resources and vulnerable ecosystems. Hence, the main goal of this research was to profile SEA practices and procedures in European small islands and provide a background for future research aiming to improve context-specific SEA applications. To achieve this goal, an exploratory case study was developed using Azores (Portugal) and Orkney (Scotland) archipelagos. An analysis of the corresponding mainland was also carried out to contextualise both case studies. The data collection was achieved through a qualitative content analysis of 43 Environmental Reports. The research found that there is not an SEA context-specific approach used within these European small islands, including guidelines, assessment topics, assessment techniques, follow-up and stakeholders engagement. The debate concerning specific approaches to small islands must be re-focused on the enhancement of SEA capacity-building amongst different stakeholders (including decision-makers), on the development and implementation of collaborative approaches, and on the exchange of knowledge and experiences between small islands networks. - Highlights: • Reviewed the differences between the Portuguese and Scottish SEA system • Showed a low integration of SEA specific features in reports of European small islands • Provides background for future SEA research for small islands approaches.

  17. Strategic Environmental Assessment practices in European small islands: Insights from Azores and Orkney islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Polido, Alexandra; João, Elsa; Ramos, Tomás B.

    2016-01-01

    The literature concerning Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) often refers to the importance of context-specific approaches. However, there is a lack of systematised and consistent studies that enhance tailor-made SEA practices and procedures. Small islands are bounded units of study which may help explore SEA theory and practice in special territories. Small islands present particular features and unique values, such as, small size and population, geographic isolation, limited resources and vulnerable ecosystems. Hence, the main goal of this research was to profile SEA practices and procedures in European small islands and provide a background for future research aiming to improve context-specific SEA applications. To achieve this goal, an exploratory case study was developed using Azores (Portugal) and Orkney (Scotland) archipelagos. An analysis of the corresponding mainland was also carried out to contextualise both case studies. The data collection was achieved through a qualitative content analysis of 43 Environmental Reports. The research found that there is not an SEA context-specific approach used within these European small islands, including guidelines, assessment topics, assessment techniques, follow-up and stakeholders engagement. The debate concerning specific approaches to small islands must be re-focused on the enhancement of SEA capacity-building amongst different stakeholders (including decision-makers), on the development and implementation of collaborative approaches, and on the exchange of knowledge and experiences between small islands networks. - Highlights: • Reviewed the differences between the Portuguese and Scottish SEA system • Showed a low integration of SEA specific features in reports of European small islands • Provides background for future SEA research for small islands approaches

  18. Late Quaternary climate change shapes island biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigelt, Patrick; Steinbauer, Manuel Jonas; Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Kreft, Holger

    2016-04-07

    Island biogeographical models consider islands either as geologically static with biodiversity resulting from ecologically neutral immigration-extinction dynamics, or as geologically dynamic with biodiversity resulting from immigration-speciation-extinction dynamics influenced by changes in island characteristics over millions of years. Present climate and spatial arrangement of islands, however, are rather exceptional compared to most of the Late Quaternary, which is characterized by recurrent cooler and drier glacial periods. These climatic oscillations over short geological timescales strongly affected sea levels and caused massive changes in island area, isolation and connectivity, orders of magnitude faster than the geological processes of island formation, subsidence and erosion considered in island theory. Consequences of these oscillations for present biodiversity remain unassessed. Here we analyse the effects of present and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) island area, isolation, elevation and climate on key components of angiosperm diversity on islands worldwide. We find that post-LGM changes in island characteristics, especially in area, have left a strong imprint on present diversity of endemic species. Specifically, the number and proportion of endemic species today is significantly higher on islands that were larger during the LGM. Native species richness, in turn, is mostly determined by present island characteristics. We conclude that an appreciation of Late Quaternary environmental change is essential to understand patterns of island endemism and its underlying evolutionary dynamics.

  19. Using Alien Coins to Test Whether Simple Inference Is Bayesian

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassey, Peter; Hawkins, Guy E.; Donkin, Chris; Brown, Scott D.

    2016-01-01

    Reasoning and inference are well-studied aspects of basic cognition that have been explained as statistically optimal Bayesian inference. Using a simplified experimental design, we conducted quantitative comparisons between Bayesian inference and human inference at the level of individuals. In 3 experiments, with more than 13,000 participants, we…

  20. On Maximum Entropy and Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luigi Gresele

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Maximum entropy is a powerful concept that entails a sharp separation between relevant and irrelevant variables. It is typically invoked in inference, once an assumption is made on what the relevant variables are, in order to estimate a model from data, that affords predictions on all other (dependent variables. Conversely, maximum entropy can be invoked to retrieve the relevant variables (sufficient statistics directly from the data, once a model is identified by Bayesian model selection. We explore this approach in the case of spin models with interactions of arbitrary order, and we discuss how relevant interactions can be inferred. In this perspective, the dimensionality of the inference problem is not set by the number of parameters in the model, but by the frequency distribution of the data. We illustrate the method showing its ability to recover the correct model in a few prototype cases and discuss its application on a real dataset.

  1. Virtually Impossible: Deleuze and Derrida on the Political Problem of Islands (and Island Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stewart Williams

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available It is commonplace to think of an island as a discreetly bounded unit. Selected writings on islands by the poststructuralist philosophers Gilles Deleuze and Jacques Derrida reveal the island variously to be both real and imaginary, mythological and scientific, but as most problematic when constituted in political terms as an indivisible, sovereign entity. These two thinkers’ more broadly developed concepts of the virtual and the impossible, respectively, are seen to disrupt any assumptions about the fixity and closure of the island polity. Instead they emphasize its actualization through processual relations that can be difficult yet dynamic and decisive in effecting the move from being to becoming-other. As the possibilities for instituting more ethical as well as different political relations open up, the question of island studies remaining in its currently coherent, familiar form is raised for consideration.

  2. Bamboo Diversity in Sumba Island

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KARSONO

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Bamboo is one of the economic plant which grow widely in the villages and have been used by the local people in the villages. Indonesia has about 10% of the world bamboo, 50% among them was endemic to Indonesia. According Widjaja (2001 Lesser Sunda Island which consists of Lombok, Sumbawa, Flores, Timor, Sumba and other small island eastern of Flores has 14 bamboo species, however, the information from the Sumba Island was lacking because of lacking data from this area except one species which was proposed by S. Soenarko in 1977 where the type specimens was collected by Iboet 443 in 1925. To fullfill data from the Sumba Island, an exploration to this area has been conducted on July 2003. The observation was done in West Sumba and East Sumba District, especially in two natioal parks at both districts. According to this inventory study in the Sumba Island, there were 10 bamboo species in Sumba Island, 1 species among them (Dinochloa sp. was a new species which has not been collected before, whereas the other species (Dinochloa kostermansiana has a new addition record from this area. The bamboo species in Sumba Island were Bambusa blumeana, Bambusa vulgaris, Dendocalamus asper, Dinochloa kostermansiana, Dinochloa sp., Gigantochloa atter, Nastus reholtumianus, Phyllostachys aurea, Schisotachyum brachycladum and Schizostachyum lima. From 10 recorded species, the genera Dinochloa and Nastus grow wild in the forest, whereas another species grow widly or cultivated in the garden. Furthermore, the genus Dinochloa was the only genus grow climbing. The endemic species found in Sumba Island was Nastus reholttumianus, whereas Dinochloa kostermansiana was also found in Flores Island.

  3. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Chavira, Mark; Darwiche, Adnan

    2004-01-01

    We describe a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available \\primula\\ tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference by evaluating...

  4. Causal inference in economics and marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varian, Hal R

    2016-07-05

    This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual-a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference.

  5. Uncertainty in prediction and in inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hilgevoord, J.; Uffink, J.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts of uncertainty in prediction and inference are introduced and illustrated using the diffraction of light as an example. The close relationship between the concepts of uncertainty in inference and resolving power is noted. A general quantitative measure of uncertainty in inference can be obtained by means of the so-called statistical distance between probability distributions. When applied to quantum mechanics, this distance leads to a measure of the distinguishability of quantum states, which essentially is the absolute value of the matrix element between the states. The importance of this result to the quantum mechanical uncertainty principle is noted. The second part of the paper provides a derivation of the statistical distance on the basis of the so-called method of support

  6. Polyglutamine variation in a flowering time protein correlates with island age in a Hawaiian plant radiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laakkonen Liisa

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A controversial topic in evolutionary developmental biology is whether morphological diversification in natural populations can be driven by expansions and contractions of amino acid repeats in proteins. To promote adaptation, selection on protein length variation must overcome deleterious effects of multiple correlated traits (pleiotropy. Thus far, systems that demonstrate this capacity include only ancient or artificial morphological diversifications. The Hawaiian Islands, with their linear geological sequence, present a unique environment to study recent, natural radiations. We have focused our research on the Hawaiian endemic mints (Lamiaceae, a large and diverse lineage with paradoxically low genetic variation, in order to test whether a direct relationship between coding-sequence repeat diversity and morphological change can be observed in an actively evolving system. Results Here we show that in the Hawaiian mints, extensive polyglutamine (CAG codon repeat polymorphism within a homolog of the pleiotropic flowering time protein and abscisic acid receptor FCA tracks the natural environmental cline of the island chain, consequent with island age, across a period of 5 million years. CAG expansions, perhaps following their natural tendency to elongate, are more frequent in colonists of recently-formed, nutrient-rich islands than in their forebears on older, nutrient-poor islands. Values for several quantitative morphological variables related to reproductive investment, known from Arabidopsis fca mutant studies, weakly though positively correlate with increasing glutamine tract length. Together with protein modeling of FCA, which indicates that longer polyglutamine tracts could induce suboptimally mobile functional domains, we suggest that CAG expansions may form slightly deleterious alleles (with respect to protein function that become fixed in founder populations. Conclusion In the Hawaiian mint FCA system, we infer that

  7. Biological invasions on oceanic islands: Implications for island ecosystems and avifauna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean E. Pearson

    2009-01-01

    Biological invasions present a global threat to biodiversity, but oceanic islands are the systems hardest hit by invasions. Islands are generally depauperate in species richness, trophic complexity, and functional diversity relative to comparable mainland ecosystems. This situation results in low biotic resistance to invasion and many empty niches for invaders to...

  8. Oak restoration trials: Santa Catalina Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lisa Stratton

    2002-01-01

    Two restoration trials involving four oak species have been implemented as part of a larger restoration program for Catalina Island. In 1997 the Catalina Island Conservancy began an active program of restoration after 50 years of ranching and farming activities on the island. The restoration program includes removing feral goats and pigs island-wide and converting 80...

  9. Island history affects faunal composition: the treeshrews (Mammalia: Scandentia: Tupaiidae) from the Mentawai and Batu Islands, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sargis, Eric J.; Woodman, Neal; Morningstar, Natalie C.; Reese, Aspen T.; Olson, Link E.

    2014-01-01

    The Mentawai and Batu Island groups off the west coast of Sumatra have a complicated geological and biogeographical history. The Batu Islands have shared a connection with the Sumatran ‘mainland’ during periods of lowered sea level, whereas the Mentawai Islands, despite being a similar distance from Sumatra, have remained isolated from Sumatra, and probably from the Batu Islands as well. These contrasting historical relationships to Sumatra have influenced the compositions of the respective mammalian faunas of these island groups. Treeshrews (Scandentia, Tupaiidae) from these islands have, at various times in their history, been recognized as geographically circumscribed populations of a broadly distributed Tupaia glis, subspecies, or distinct species. We used multivariate analyses of measurements from the skull and hands to compare the island populations from Siberut (Mentawai Islands) and Tanahbala (Batu Islands) with the geographically adjacent species from the southern Mentawai Islands (T. chrysogaster) and Sumatra (T. ferruginea). Results from both the skull and manus of the Siberut population show that it is most similar to T. chrysogaster, whereas the Tanahbala population is more similar to T. ferruginea, confirming predictions based on island history. These results are further corroborated by mammae counts. Based on these lines of evidence, we include the Siberut population in T. chrysogaster and the Tanahbala population in T. ferruginea. Our conclusions expand the known distributions of both the Mentawai and Sumatran species. The larger geographical range of the endangered T. chrysogaster has conservation implications for this Mentawai endemic, so populations and habitat should be re-evaluated on each of the islands it inhabits. However, until such a re-evaluation is conducted, we recommend that the IUCN Red List status of this species be changed from ‘Endangered’ to ‘Data Deficient’.

  10. Nonparametric predictive inference in statistical process control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arts, G.R.J.; Coolen, F.P.A.; Laan, van der P.

    2000-01-01

    New methods for statistical process control are presented, where the inferences have a nonparametric predictive nature. We consider several problems in process control in terms of uncertainties about future observable random quantities, and we develop inferences for these random quantities hased on

  11. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Darwiche, Adnan; Chavira, Mark

    2006-01-01

    We describe in this paper a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available PRIMULA tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference...

  12. Making inference from wildlife collision data: inferring predator absence from prey strikes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Caley

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Wildlife collision data are ubiquitous, though challenging for making ecological inference due to typically irreducible uncertainty relating to the sampling process. We illustrate a new approach that is useful for generating inference from predator data arising from wildlife collisions. By simply conditioning on a second prey species sampled via the same collision process, and by using a biologically realistic numerical response functions, we can produce a coherent numerical response relationship between predator and prey. This relationship can then be used to make inference on the population size of the predator species, including the probability of extinction. The statistical conditioning enables us to account for unmeasured variation in factors influencing the runway strike incidence for individual airports and to enable valid comparisons. A practical application of the approach for testing hypotheses about the distribution and abundance of a predator species is illustrated using the hypothesized red fox incursion into Tasmania, Australia. We estimate that conditional on the numerical response between fox and lagomorph runway strikes on mainland Australia, the predictive probability of observing no runway strikes of foxes in Tasmania after observing 15 lagomorph strikes is 0.001. We conclude there is enough evidence to safely reject the null hypothesis that there is a widespread red fox population in Tasmania at a population density consistent with prey availability. The method is novel and has potential wider application.

  13. Making inference from wildlife collision data: inferring predator absence from prey strikes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caley, Peter; Hosack, Geoffrey R; Barry, Simon C

    2017-01-01

    Wildlife collision data are ubiquitous, though challenging for making ecological inference due to typically irreducible uncertainty relating to the sampling process. We illustrate a new approach that is useful for generating inference from predator data arising from wildlife collisions. By simply conditioning on a second prey species sampled via the same collision process, and by using a biologically realistic numerical response functions, we can produce a coherent numerical response relationship between predator and prey. This relationship can then be used to make inference on the population size of the predator species, including the probability of extinction. The statistical conditioning enables us to account for unmeasured variation in factors influencing the runway strike incidence for individual airports and to enable valid comparisons. A practical application of the approach for testing hypotheses about the distribution and abundance of a predator species is illustrated using the hypothesized red fox incursion into Tasmania, Australia. We estimate that conditional on the numerical response between fox and lagomorph runway strikes on mainland Australia, the predictive probability of observing no runway strikes of foxes in Tasmania after observing 15 lagomorph strikes is 0.001. We conclude there is enough evidence to safely reject the null hypothesis that there is a widespread red fox population in Tasmania at a population density consistent with prey availability. The method is novel and has potential wider application.

  14. Sable Island: A heritage to preserve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Villeneuve, C.

    1997-09-01

    Sable Island is strategically located on the edge of the teeming fisheries of the Newfoundland Grand Banks and near one of the main sea routes between North America and Europe. It has been the bane of navigators from 1583 onward, with 250 ships running aground, the latest in 1947. Marine productivity around Sable Island is very high owing to the temperature differences between the currents and the adjacent underwater topography. Dolphins and whales abound in the area known as the `Gully`, and there are no fewer than 36 fish species present in the waters surrounding the Island. Approximately 35 per cent of the Island is covered by vegetation which is limited to species adapted to sandy soil containing little organic matter and few nutrients. Some plants, such as the American beachgrass, grow in dense colonies and help to stabilize the dunes. Bird diversity is limited to species adapted to open areas, ponds and the littoral. Some 324 species have been recorded on the Island, but only 25 are known to nest there. The Island is one of world`s most important breeding sites for grey seals where they can be observed in great numbers during mating, whelping and moulting season. Among the many introduced animals only the legendary horses of Sable Island remain to this day. Despite its remoteness and isolation, the Island faces many threats, one of the most worrysome being the erosion of the eastern extremity of the Island during severe winter storms. The Island benefits from its status as a Migratory Bird Sanctuary, and is legally protected under Sable Island Regulations of the Navigation Act.

  15. Causal inference in biology networks with integrated belief propagation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Rui; Karr, Jonathan R; Schadt, Eric E

    2015-01-01

    Inferring causal relationships among molecular and higher order phenotypes is a critical step in elucidating the complexity of living systems. Here we propose a novel method for inferring causality that is no longer constrained by the conditional dependency arguments that limit the ability of statistical causal inference methods to resolve causal relationships within sets of graphical models that are Markov equivalent. Our method utilizes Bayesian belief propagation to infer the responses of perturbation events on molecular traits given a hypothesized graph structure. A distance measure between the inferred response distribution and the observed data is defined to assess the 'fitness' of the hypothesized causal relationships. To test our algorithm, we infer causal relationships within equivalence classes of gene networks in which the form of the functional interactions that are possible are assumed to be nonlinear, given synthetic microarray and RNA sequencing data. We also apply our method to infer causality in real metabolic network with v-structure and feedback loop. We show that our method can recapitulate the causal structure and recover the feedback loop only from steady-state data which conventional method cannot.

  16. Efficient Bayesian inference for ARFIMA processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, T.; Gramacy, R. B.; Franzke, C. L. E.; Watkins, N. W.

    2015-03-01

    Many geophysical quantities, like atmospheric temperature, water levels in rivers, and wind speeds, have shown evidence of long-range dependence (LRD). LRD means that these quantities experience non-trivial temporal memory, which potentially enhances their predictability, but also hampers the detection of externally forced trends. Thus, it is important to reliably identify whether or not a system exhibits LRD. In this paper we present a modern and systematic approach to the inference of LRD. Rather than Mandelbrot's fractional Gaussian noise, we use the more flexible Autoregressive Fractional Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model which is widely used in time series analysis, and of increasing interest in climate science. Unlike most previous work on the inference of LRD, which is frequentist in nature, we provide a systematic treatment of Bayesian inference. In particular, we provide a new approximate likelihood for efficient parameter inference, and show how nuisance parameters (e.g. short memory effects) can be integrated over in order to focus on long memory parameters, and hypothesis testing more directly. We illustrate our new methodology on the Nile water level data, with favorable comparison to the standard estimators.

  17. A new phylogeographic pattern of endemic Bufo bankorensis in Taiwan Island is attributed to the genetic variation of populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teng-Lang Yu

    Full Text Available To comprehend the phylogeographic patterns of genetic variation in anurans at Taiwan Island, this study attempted to examine (1 the existence of various geological barriers (Central Mountain Ranges, CMRs; and (2 the genetic variation of Bufo bankorensis using mtDNA sequences among populations located in different regions of Taiwan, characterized by different climates and existing under extreme conditions when compared available sequences of related species B. gargarizans of mainland China.Phylogenetic analyses of the dataset with mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA D-loop gene (348 bp recovered a close relationship between B. bankorensis and B. gargarizans, identified three distinct lineages. Furthermore, the network of mtDNA D-loop gene (564 bp amplified (279 individuals, 27 localities from Taiwan Island indicated three divergent clades within B. bankorensis (Clade W, E and S, corresponding to the geography, thereby verifying the importance of the CMRs and Kaoping River drainage as major biogeographic barriers. Mismatch distribution analysis, neutrality tests and Bayesian skyline plots revealed that a significant population expansion occurred for the total population and Clade W, with horizons dated to approximately 0.08 and 0.07 Mya, respectively. These results suggest that the population expansion of Taiwan Island species B. bankorensis might have resulted from the release of available habitat in post-glacial periods, the genetic variation on mtDNA showing habitat selection, subsequent population dispersal, and co-distribution among clades.The multiple origins (different clades of B. bankorensis mtDNA sequences were first evident in this study. The divergent genetic clades found within B. bankorensis could be independent colonization by previously diverged lineages; inferring B. bankorensis originated from B. gargarizans of mainland China, then dispersal followed by isolation within Taiwan Island. Highly divergent clades between W and E of B

  18. Approaching the Island of Inversion: 34P

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bender, P.C.; Hoffman, C.R.; Wiedeking, M.; Allmond, J.M.; Bernstein, L.A.; Burke, J.T.; Bleuel, D.L.; Clark, R.M.; Fallon, P.; Goldblum, B.L.; Hinners, T.A.; Jeppesen, H.B.; Lee, Sangjin; Lee, I.Y.; Lesher, S.R.; Machiavelli, A.O.; McMahan, M.A.; Morris, D.; Perry, M.; Phair, L.; Scielzo, N.D.; Tabor, S.L.; Tripathi, Vandana; Volya, A.

    2011-06-14

    Yrast states in 34P were investigated using the 18O(18O,pn) reaction at energies of 20, 24, 25, 30, and 44 MeV at Florida State University and at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. The level scheme was expanded, ray angular distributions were measured, and lifetimes were inferred with the Doppler-shift attenuation method by detecting decay protons in coincidence with one or more rays. The results provide a clearer picture of the evolution of structure approaching the 'Island of Inversion', particularly how the 1 and 2 particle-hole (ph) states fall in energy with increasing neutro number approaching inversion. However, the agreement of the lowest few states with pure sd shell model predictions shows that the level scheme of 34P is not itself inverted. Rather, the accumulated evidence indicates that the 1-ph states start at 2.3 MeV. A good candidate for the lowest 2-ph state lies at 6236 keV, just below the neutron separation energy of 6291 keV. Shell model calculations made using a small modification of the WBP interaction reproduce the negative-parity, 1-ph states rather well.

  19. Islanded operation of distributed networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    This report summarises the findings of a study to investigate the regulatory, commercial and technical risks and benefits associated with the operation of distributed generation to power an islanded section of distributed network. A review of published literature was carried out, and UK generators were identified who could operate as part of an island network under the existing technical, regulatory, and safety framework. Agreement on case studies for consideration with distributed network operators (DNOs) is discussed as well as the quantification of the risks, benefits and costs of islanding, and the production of a case implementation plan for each case study. Technical issues associated with operating sections of network in islanded mode are described, and impacts of islanding on trading and settlement, and technical and commercial modelling are explored.

  20. Islanded operation of distributed networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    This report summarises the findings of a study to investigate the regulatory, commercial and technical risks and benefits associated with the operation of distributed generation to power an islanded section of distributed network. A review of published literature was carried out, and UK generators were identified who could operate as part of an island network under the existing technical, regulatory, and safety framework. Agreement on case studies for consideration with distributed network operators (DNOs) is discussed as well as the quantification of the risks, benefits and costs of islanding, and the production of a case implementation plan for each case study. Technical issues associated with operating sections of network in islanded mode are described, and impacts of islanding on trading and settlement, and technical and commercial modelling are explored

  1. Coastal groundwater exchange on a small Pacific atoll island: Roi Namur, Republic of the Marshall Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberle, Ferdinand K. J.; Swarzenski, Peter W.; Storlazzi, Curt

    2017-04-01

    Atoll islands, most of which only average 1-2 meters above today's sea level, provide a tremendous natural laboratory in which to study and better understand the intensifying impacts of high rates of sea-level rise on tropical reef-lined islands globally due to their unique geologic structure and limited water supply. Groundwater resources of atolls are typically minimal due to the low elevation and small surface area of the islands and are also subject to recurring droughts, and more frequent, storm-driven seawater overwash events. Although groundwater is the principal means of freshwater storage on atoll islands and is a major factor in determining the overall sustainability of island communities, hydrological data on how an aquifer will response to changes in sea-level rise or storm-driven overwash remain limited. We here present high-resolution time series hydrogeological and geochemical data to determine the role of the atoll's carbonate geology, land use, and atmospheric and oceanographic forcing in driving coastal groundwater exchange on the island of Roi Namur on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. This information can provide new estimates on the recovery and resilience of coastal groundwater resources on such islands to expected climate change-driven perturbations.

  2. The coastline remote sensing survey for Zhao Shu Island in Xisha Islands based on WorldView-2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Li; Zhong, Chang; Kong, Fanping

    2014-11-01

    Due to diastrophism, tide action and human activities, the coastline is always in flux. There are lots of coral islands in the south sea of China. Remote sensing survey for the coastline not only can reassert the necessity and importance of coral protection, but also can provide basic data and scientific basis for island ecologic protection, reasonable utilization of land resources. The study area named Zhao Shu Island lies in Jintong Islands of Xisha. It is a coral island which has people inhabited. Using WorldView-2 satellite remote sensing images as data sources we carry out three phases of coastline investigation and monitoring. The satellite data phases are 2002, 2010 and 2013. Firstly, affirm the bands valuable for color composition on the basis of spectral and correlation analysis. Then extract the coastline by a series of image process, such as image correction, fusion, waterline extraction and coastline revision. Finally determine the coastline types and length by artificial interpretation. The results show that the island length is gradually smaller, which means the island area is reducing. The beach bedrock coast in northern island was eroded seriously especially during the period between 2010 and 2013. In addition, the shoal head shape in the western island changed a lot.

  3. Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Sheehan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest. We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history. Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme.

  4. Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehan, Sara; Song, Yun S.

    2016-01-01

    Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data) to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest). We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history). Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep) or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme. PMID:27018908

  5. Late Quaternary climate change shapes island biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weigelt, Patrick; Steinbauer, Manuel; Cabral, Juliano

    2016-01-01

    Island biogeographical models consider islands either as geologically static with biodiversity resulting from ecologically neutral immigration–extinction dynamics1, or as geologically dynamic with biodiversity resulting from immigration–speciation–extinction dynamics influenced by changes in island...... sea levels3, 4 and caused massive changes in island area, isolation and connectivity5, orders of magnitude faster than the geological processes of island formation, subsidence and erosion considered in island theory2, 6. Consequences of these oscillations for present biodiversity remain unassessed5, 7...

  6. A Bayesian Network Schema for Lessening Database Inference

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Chang, LiWu; Moskowitz, Ira S

    2001-01-01

    .... The authors introduce a formal schema for database inference analysis, based upon a Bayesian network structure, which identifies critical parameters involved in the inference problem and represents...

  7. Type Inference for Session Types in the Pi-Calculus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graversen, Eva Fajstrup; Harbo, Jacob Buchreitz; Huttel, Hans

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we present a direct algorithm for session type inference for the π-calculus. Type inference for session types has previously been achieved by either imposing limitations and restriction on the π-calculus, or by reducing the type inference problem to that for linear types. Our approach...

  8. Autumn monitoring of resident avifauna on Guana Island, British Virgin Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    C.W. Boal; J.M. Wunderle Jr.; W.J. Arendt

    2013-01-01

    Although the Caribbean region is considered a biodiversity hotspot and a priority for ecological conservation efforts, little information exists on population trends of West Indian landbirds. We combined avian survey data collected from three studies spanning a 16-year period on a small island with a minimal human presence in the British Virgin Islands. Although...

  9. The pacific island health care project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Person, Donald Ames

    2014-01-01

    US Associated/Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) include three freely associated states: Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Palau, and three Territories: American Samoa, Guam, and Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. The Pacific Island Health Care Project (PIHCP) provides humanitarian medical referral/consultation/care to >500,000 indigenous people of these remote islands. In the mid-1990s, we developed a simple store-and-forward program to link the USAPI with Tripler Army Medical Center. This application allowed image attachment to email consultations. More than 8000 Pacific Islanders have benefited from the program. Three thousand Pacific Islanders prior to telemedicine (1990-1997) and since store-and-forward telemedicine (1997-present), the PIHCP has helped an additional 5000. Records post dynamically and are stored in an archival database. The PIHCP is the longest running telemedicine program in the world delivering humanitarian medical care. It has bridged the Developing World of the remote Pacific Islands with advanced medical and surgical care available at a major US military teaching hospital. (The opinions expressed here are those of the author and not that of the Army, Department of Defense, or the US Government.).

  10. The Pacific Island Health Care Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald Ames Person

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction/BackgroundUS Associated/Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI include 3 Freely Associated States: Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Palau and 3 Territories: American Samoa, Guam, and Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. ObjectiveThe Pacific Island Health Care Project (PIHCP provides humanitarian medical referral/consultation/care to >500,000 indigenous people of these remote islands. Methods In the mid-1990s, we developed a simple store-and-forward program to link the USAPI with Tripler Army Medical Center (TAMC. This application allowed image attachment to email consultations. ResultsMore than 8000 Pacific Islanders have benefited from the program. 3000 Pacific Islanders prior to telemedicine (1990-1997 and since store-and-forward telemedicine (1997-present, the PIHCP has helped an additional 5000. Records post dynamically and are stored in an archival database. Conclusion The PIHCP is the longest running telemedicine program in the world delivering humanitarian medical care. It has bridged the Developing World of the remote Pacific islands with advanced medical and surgical care available at a major US military teaching hospital.(The opinions expressed here are those of the author and not that of the Army, Department of Defense, or the US Government.

  11. Physically Based Modeling of Delta Island Consumptive Use: Fabian Tract and Staten Island, California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas J. Siegfried

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2014v12iss4art2Water use estimation is central to managing most water problems. To better understand water use in California’s Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, a collaborative, integrated approach was used to predict Delta island diversion, consumption, and return of water on a more detailed temporal and spatial resolution. Fabian Tract and Staten Island were selected for this pilot study based on available data and island accessibility. Historical diversion and return location data, water rights claims, LiDAR digital elevation model data, and Google Earth were used to predict island diversion and return locations, which were tested and improved through ground-truthing. Soil and land-use characteristics as well as weather data were incorporated with the Integrated Water Flow Model Demand Calculator to estimate water use and runoff returns from input agricultural lands. For modeling, the islands were divided into grid cells forming subregions, representing fields, levees, ditches, and roads. The subregions were joined hydrographically to form diversion and return watersheds related to return and diversion locations. Diversions and returns were limited by physical capacities. Differences between initial model and measured results point to the importance of seepage into deeply subsided islands. The capabilities of the models presented far exceeded current knowledge of agricultural practices within the Delta, demonstrating the need for more data collection to enable improvements upon current Delta Island Consumptive Use estimates.

  12. Explanatory Preferences Shape Learning and Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombrozo, Tania

    2016-10-01

    Explanations play an important role in learning and inference. People often learn by seeking explanations, and they assess the viability of hypotheses by considering how well they explain the data. An emerging body of work reveals that both children and adults have strong and systematic intuitions about what constitutes a good explanation, and that these explanatory preferences have a systematic impact on explanation-based processes. In particular, people favor explanations that are simple and broad, with the consequence that engaging in explanation can shape learning and inference by leading people to seek patterns and favor hypotheses that support broad and simple explanations. Given the prevalence of explanation in everyday cognition, understanding explanation is therefore crucial to understanding learning and inference. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Grammatical inference algorithms, routines and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Wieczorek, Wojciech

    2017-01-01

    This book focuses on grammatical inference, presenting classic and modern methods of grammatical inference from the perspective of practitioners. To do so, it employs the Python programming language to present all of the methods discussed. Grammatical inference is a field that lies at the intersection of multiple disciplines, with contributions from computational linguistics, pattern recognition, machine learning, computational biology, formal learning theory and many others. Though the book is largely practical, it also includes elements of learning theory, combinatorics on words, the theory of automata and formal languages, plus references to real-world problems. The listings presented here can be directly copied and pasted into other programs, thus making the book a valuable source of ready recipes for students, academic researchers, and programmers alike, as well as an inspiration for their further development.>.

  14. BagReg: Protein inference through machine learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Can; Liu, Dao; Teng, Ben; He, Zengyou

    2015-08-01

    Protein inference from the identified peptides is of primary importance in the shotgun proteomics. The target of protein inference is to identify whether each candidate protein is truly present in the sample. To date, many computational methods have been proposed to solve this problem. However, there is still no method that can fully utilize the information hidden in the input data. In this article, we propose a learning-based method named BagReg for protein inference. The method firstly artificially extracts five features from the input data, and then chooses each feature as the class feature to separately build models to predict the presence probabilities of proteins. Finally, the weak results from five prediction models are aggregated to obtain the final result. We test our method on six public available data sets. The experimental results show that our method is superior to the state-of-the-art protein inference algorithms. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. A roadmap for island biology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Patino, Jairo; Whittaker, Robert J.; Borges, Paulo A.V.

    2017-01-01

    Aims: The 50th anniversary of the publication of the seminal book, The Theory of Island Biogeography, by Robert H. MacArthur and Edward O. Wilson, is a timely moment to review and identify key research foci that could advance island biology. Here, we take a collaborative horizon-scanning approach...... to identify 50 fundamental questions for the continued development of the field. Location: Worldwide. Methods: We adapted a well-established methodology of horizon scanning to identify priority research questions in island biology, and initiated it during the Island Biology 2016 conference held in the Azores......); global change (5); conservation and management policies (5); and invasive alien species (4). Main conclusions: Collectively, this cross-disciplinary set of topics covering the 50 fundamental questions has the potential to stimulate and guide future research in island biology. By covering fields ranging...

  16. Ensemble stacking mitigates biases in inference of synaptic connectivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Brendan; Levy, Maayan; Dechery, Joseph B; MacLean, Jason N

    2018-01-01

    A promising alternative to directly measuring the anatomical connections in a neuronal population is inferring the connections from the activity. We employ simulated spiking neuronal networks to compare and contrast commonly used inference methods that identify likely excitatory synaptic connections using statistical regularities in spike timing. We find that simple adjustments to standard algorithms improve inference accuracy: A signing procedure improves the power of unsigned mutual-information-based approaches and a correction that accounts for differences in mean and variance of background timing relationships, such as those expected to be induced by heterogeneous firing rates, increases the sensitivity of frequency-based methods. We also find that different inference methods reveal distinct subsets of the synaptic network and each method exhibits different biases in the accurate detection of reciprocity and local clustering. To correct for errors and biases specific to single inference algorithms, we combine methods into an ensemble. Ensemble predictions, generated as a linear combination of multiple inference algorithms, are more sensitive than the best individual measures alone, and are more faithful to ground-truth statistics of connectivity, mitigating biases specific to single inference methods. These weightings generalize across simulated datasets, emphasizing the potential for the broad utility of ensemble-based approaches.

  17. Stochastic processes inference theory

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, Malempati M

    2014-01-01

    This is the revised and enlarged 2nd edition of the authors’ original text, which was intended to be a modest complement to Grenander's fundamental memoir on stochastic processes and related inference theory. The present volume gives a substantial account of regression analysis, both for stochastic processes and measures, and includes recent material on Ridge regression with some unexpected applications, for example in econometrics. The first three chapters can be used for a quarter or semester graduate course on inference on stochastic processes. The remaining chapters provide more advanced material on stochastic analysis suitable for graduate seminars and discussions, leading to dissertation or research work. In general, the book will be of interest to researchers in probability theory, mathematical statistics and electrical and information theory.

  18. Russell and Humean Inferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Paulo Monteiro

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available Russell's The Problems of Philosophy tries to establish a new theory of induction, at the same time that Hume is there accused of an irrational/ scepticism about induction". But a careful analysis of the theory of knowledge explicitly acknowledged by Hume reveals that, contrary to the standard interpretation in the XXth century, possibly influenced by Russell, Hume deals exclusively with causal inference (which he never classifies as "causal induction", although now we are entitled to do so, never with inductive inference in general, mainly generalizations about sensible qualities of objects ( whether, e.g., "all crows are black" or not is not among Hume's concerns. Russell's theories are thus only false alternatives to Hume's, in (1912 or in his (1948.

  19. Efficient algorithms for conditional independence inference

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bouckaert, R.; Hemmecke, R.; Lindner, S.; Studený, Milan

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 11, č. 1 (2010), s. 3453-3479 ISSN 1532-4435 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/08/0539; GA MŠk 1M0572 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : conditional independence inference * linear programming approach Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 2.949, year: 2010 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/MTR/studeny-efficient algorithms for conditional independence inference.pdf

  20. Pediatrics in the Marshall Islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dungy, C.I.; Morgan, B.C.; Adams, W.H.

    1984-01-01

    The delivery of health care to children living on isolated island communities presents unique challenges to health professionals. An evolved method of providing longitudinal services to infants and children residing on islands of the Marshall Island chain - a central Pacific portion of the Micronesian archipelago - is presented. The difficulties associated with provision of comprehensive health care in a vast ocean area are discussed

  1. Issues and Tensions in Island Heritage Management: A Case Study of Motuihe Island, New Zealand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Bade

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper draws on a New Zealand case study, Motuihe Island, to examine the challenges of conserving cultural heritage in places renowned for natural heritage values. In keeping with the broader trend toward the ecological restoration of islands close to Auckland, Motuihe Island is undergoing conversion into an ecosystem of native flora and fauna. Issues and tensions relating to the management of natural and cultural heritage will be discussed and influencing aspects investigated: the nature/culture dualism, the effect of New Zealand’s history and identity, and the influence of islandness on heritage management.

  2. State-Space Inference and Learning with Gaussian Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Turner, R; Deisenroth, MP; Rasmussen, CE

    2010-01-01

    18.10.13 KB. Ok to add author version to spiral, authors hold copyright. State-space inference and learning with Gaussian processes (GPs) is an unsolved problem. We propose a new, general methodology for inference and learning in nonlinear state-space models that are described probabilistically by non-parametric GP models. We apply the expectation maximization algorithm to iterate between inference in the latent state-space and learning the parameters of the underlying GP dynamics model. C...

  3. Enhancing Transparency and Control When Drawing Data-Driven Inferences About Individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Daizhuo; Fraiberger, Samuel P; Moakler, Robert; Provost, Foster

    2017-09-01

    Recent studies show the remarkable power of fine-grained information disclosed by users on social network sites to infer users' personal characteristics via predictive modeling. Similar fine-grained data are being used successfully in other commercial applications. In response, attention is turning increasingly to the transparency that organizations provide to users as to what inferences are drawn and why, as well as to what sort of control users can be given over inferences that are drawn about them. In this article, we focus on inferences about personal characteristics based on information disclosed by users' online actions. As a use case, we explore personal inferences that are made possible from "Likes" on Facebook. We first present a means for providing transparency into the information responsible for inferences drawn by data-driven models. We then introduce the "cloaking device"-a mechanism for users to inhibit the use of particular pieces of information in inference. Using these analytical tools we ask two main questions: (1) How much information must users cloak to significantly affect inferences about their personal traits? We find that usually users must cloak only a small portion of their actions to inhibit inference. We also find that, encouragingly, false-positive inferences are significantly easier to cloak than true-positive inferences. (2) Can firms change their modeling behavior to make cloaking more difficult? The answer is a definitive yes. We demonstrate a simple modeling change that requires users to cloak substantially more information to affect the inferences drawn. The upshot is that organizations can provide transparency and control even into complicated, predictive model-driven inferences, but they also can make control easier or harder for their users.

  4. Status of the Island Night Lizard and Two Non-Native Lizards on Outlying Landing Field San Nicolas Island, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fellers, Gary M.; Drost, Charles A.; Murphey, Thomas G.

    2008-01-01

    More than 900 individually marked island night lizards (Xantusia riversiana) were captured on San Nicolas Island, California, between 1984 and 2007 as part of an ongoing study to monitor the status of this threatened species. Our data suggest that at least a few lizards are probably more than 20 years old, and one lizard would be 31.5 years old if it grew at an average rate for the population. Ages of 20 and 30 years seem reasonable given the remarkably slow growth during capture intervals of more than a decade for five of the lizards which we estimated to be 20 or more years old. Like other lizards, island night lizard growth rates vary by size, with larger lizards growing more slowly. In general, growth rates were somewhat greater on San Nicolas Island (compared with Santa Barbara Island), and this increase was sustained through all of the intermediate size classes. The higher growth rate may account for the somewhat larger lizards present on San Nicolas Island, although we cannot discount the possibility that night lizards on San Nicolas are merely living longer. The high percentage of small lizards in the Eucalyptus habitat might seem to reflect a healthy population in that habitat, but the high proportion of small lizards appears to be caused by good reproduction in the 1900s and substantially poorer reproduction in subsequent years. The Eucalyptus habitat has dried quite a bit in recent years. Night lizards in the Haplopappus/Grassland habitat have shown an increase in the proportion of larger lizards since 2000. There has also been an increase in the proportion of large lizards in the Rock Cobble habitat at Redeye Beach. However, there are has been some change in habitat with more elephant seals occupying the same area just above the high tide as do the night lizards. Southern alligator lizards and side-blotched lizards are both non-native on San Nicolas Island. Neither lizard causes obvious harm to island night lizards, and management time and effort should

  5. Fused Regression for Multi-source Gene Regulatory Network Inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kari Y Lam

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Understanding gene regulatory networks is critical to understanding cellular differentiation and response to external stimuli. Methods for global network inference have been developed and applied to a variety of species. Most approaches consider the problem of network inference independently in each species, despite evidence that gene regulation can be conserved even in distantly related species. Further, network inference is often confined to single data-types (single platforms and single cell types. We introduce a method for multi-source network inference that allows simultaneous estimation of gene regulatory networks in multiple species or biological processes through the introduction of priors based on known gene relationships such as orthology incorporated using fused regression. This approach improves network inference performance even when orthology mapping and conservation are incomplete. We refine this method by presenting an algorithm that extracts the true conserved subnetwork from a larger set of potentially conserved interactions and demonstrate the utility of our method in cross species network inference. Last, we demonstrate our method's utility in learning from data collected on different experimental platforms.

  6. Mechanisms causing size differences of the land hermit crab Coenobita rugosus among eco-islands in Southern Taiwan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Hsuan Hsu

    Full Text Available Numerous environmental factors can influence body size. Comparing populations in different ecological contexts is one potential approach to elucidating the most critical of such factors. In the current study, we found that the body size of the land hermit crab Coenobita rugosus was significantly larger on Dongsha Island in the South China Sea than on other eco-islands around Southern Taiwan. We hypothesized that this could be due to differences in (1 shell resources, (2 parasite impact, (3 competition, (4 predation, and (5 food. We found no supporting evidence for the first three hypotheses; the shells used by the hermit crabs on Dongsha were in poorer condition than were those used elsewhere, extremely few individuals in the region had ectoparasites, and the density of hermit crabs varied considerably among localities within each island. However, significantly higher percentages of C. rugosus reached age 3 years on Dongsha than at Siziwan bay in Taiwan. Two growth rate indices inferred from size structures suggested faster growth on Dongsha than at Siziwan. The condition index (i.e., the body mass/shield length ratio of C. rugosus was also greater on Dongsha than at Siziwan. Therefore, Dongsha hermit crabs seem to have superior diet and growth performance. Seagrass debris accumulation at the shore of Dongsha was considerable, whereas none was observed at Siziwan or on the other islands, where dicot leaves were the dominant food item for the vegetarian hermit crabs. We then experimentally evaluated the possible role of seagrass as food for C. rugosus. The crabs on Dongsha preferred seagrass to dicot leaves, and their growth increment was faster when they fed on seagrass than when they fed on dicot leaves; no such differences were found in the Siziwan hermit crabs. The aforementioned results are compatible with the food hypothesis explaining the size differences among the islands. The predator hypothesis could explain the greater life span but

  7. HIERARCHICAL PROBABILISTIC INFERENCE OF COSMIC SHEAR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, Michael D.; Dawson, William A.; Hogg, David W.; Marshall, Philip J.; Bard, Deborah J.; Meyers, Joshua; Lang, Dustin

    2015-01-01

    Point estimators for the shearing of galaxy images induced by gravitational lensing involve a complex inverse problem in the presence of noise, pixelization, and model uncertainties. We present a probabilistic forward modeling approach to gravitational lensing inference that has the potential to mitigate the biased inferences in most common point estimators and is practical for upcoming lensing surveys. The first part of our statistical framework requires specification of a likelihood function for the pixel data in an imaging survey given parameterized models for the galaxies in the images. We derive the lensing shear posterior by marginalizing over all intrinsic galaxy properties that contribute to the pixel data (i.e., not limited to galaxy ellipticities) and learn the distributions for the intrinsic galaxy properties via hierarchical inference with a suitably flexible conditional probabilitiy distribution specification. We use importance sampling to separate the modeling of small imaging areas from the global shear inference, thereby rendering our algorithm computationally tractable for large surveys. With simple numerical examples we demonstrate the improvements in accuracy from our importance sampling approach, as well as the significance of the conditional distribution specification for the intrinsic galaxy properties when the data are generated from an unknown number of distinct galaxy populations with different morphological characteristics

  8. Inverse Ising inference with correlated samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obermayer, Benedikt; Levine, Erel

    2014-01-01

    Correlations between two variables of a high-dimensional system can be indicative of an underlying interaction, but can also result from indirect effects. Inverse Ising inference is a method to distinguish one from the other. Essentially, the parameters of the least constrained statistical model are learned from the observed correlations such that direct interactions can be separated from indirect correlations. Among many other applications, this approach has been helpful for protein structure prediction, because residues which interact in the 3D structure often show correlated substitutions in a multiple sequence alignment. In this context, samples used for inference are not independent but share an evolutionary history on a phylogenetic tree. Here, we discuss the effects of correlations between samples on global inference. Such correlations could arise due to phylogeny but also via other slow dynamical processes. We present a simple analytical model to address the resulting inference biases, and develop an exact method accounting for background correlations in alignment data by combining phylogenetic modeling with an adaptive cluster expansion algorithm. We find that popular reweighting schemes are only marginally effective at removing phylogenetic bias, suggest a rescaling strategy that yields better results, and provide evidence that our conclusions carry over to the frequently used mean-field approach to the inverse Ising problem. (paper)

  9. Bayesian structural inference for hidden processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strelioff, Christopher C.; Crutchfield, James P.

    2014-04-01

    We introduce a Bayesian approach to discovering patterns in structurally complex processes. The proposed method of Bayesian structural inference (BSI) relies on a set of candidate unifilar hidden Markov model (uHMM) topologies for inference of process structure from a data series. We employ a recently developed exact enumeration of topological ɛ-machines. (A sequel then removes the topological restriction.) This subset of the uHMM topologies has the added benefit that inferred models are guaranteed to be ɛ-machines, irrespective of estimated transition probabilities. Properties of ɛ-machines and uHMMs allow for the derivation of analytic expressions for estimating transition probabilities, inferring start states, and comparing the posterior probability of candidate model topologies, despite process internal structure being only indirectly present in data. We demonstrate BSI's effectiveness in estimating a process's randomness, as reflected by the Shannon entropy rate, and its structure, as quantified by the statistical complexity. We also compare using the posterior distribution over candidate models and the single, maximum a posteriori model for point estimation and show that the former more accurately reflects uncertainty in estimated values. We apply BSI to in-class examples of finite- and infinite-order Markov processes, as well to an out-of-class, infinite-state hidden process.

  10. The Impact of Disablers on Predictive Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummins, Denise Dellarosa

    2014-01-01

    People consider alternative causes when deciding whether a cause is responsible for an effect (diagnostic inference) but appear to neglect them when deciding whether an effect will occur (predictive inference). Five experiments were conducted to test a 2-part explanation of this phenomenon: namely, (a) that people interpret standard predictive…

  11. Isotopic composition of reduced and oxidized sulfur in the Canary Islands: implications for the mantle S cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaudry, P.; Longpre, M. A.; Wing, B. A.; Bui, T. H.; Stix, J.

    2017-12-01

    The Earth's mantle contains distinct sulfur reservoirs, which can be probed by sulfur isotope analyses of volcanic rocks and gases. We analyzed the isotopic composition of reduced and oxidized sulfur in a diverse range of volcanically derived materials spanning historical volcanism in the Canary Islands. Our sample set consists of subaerial volcanic tephras from three different islands, mantle and sedimentary xenoliths, as well as lava balloon samples from the 2011-2012 submarine El Hierro eruption and associated crystal separates. This large sample set allows us to differentiate between the various processes responsible for sulfur isotope heterogeneity in the Canary archipelago. Our results define an array in triple S isotope space between the compositions of the MORB and seawater sulfate reservoirs. Specifically, the sulfide values are remarkably homogeneous around d34S = -1 ‰ and D33S = -0.01 ‰, while sulfate values peak at d34S = +4 ‰ and D33S = +0.01 ‰. Lava balloons from the El Hierro eruption have highly enriched sulfate d34S values up to +19.3 ‰, reflecting direct interaction between seawater sulfate and the erupting magma. Several sulfate data points from the island of Lanzarote also trend towards more positive d34S up to +13.8 ‰, suggesting interaction with seawater sulfate-enriched lithologies or infiltration of seawater within the magmatic system. On the other hand, the modal values and relative abundances of S2- and S6+ in crystal separates suggest that the Canary Island mantle source has a d34S around +3 ‰, similar to the S-isotopic composition of a peridotite xenolith from Lanzarote. We infer that the S2- and S6+ modes reflect isotopic equilibrium between those species in the magmatic source, which requires 80 % of the sulfide to become oxidized after melting, consistent with measured S speciation. This 34S enrichment of the source could be due to the recycling of hydrothermally-altered oceanic crust, which has been previously suggested

  12. Automatic physical inference with information maximizing neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charnock, Tom; Lavaux, Guilhem; Wandelt, Benjamin D.

    2018-04-01

    Compressing large data sets to a manageable number of summaries that are informative about the underlying parameters vastly simplifies both frequentist and Bayesian inference. When only simulations are available, these summaries are typically chosen heuristically, so they may inadvertently miss important information. We introduce a simulation-based machine learning technique that trains artificial neural networks to find nonlinear functionals of data that maximize Fisher information: information maximizing neural networks (IMNNs). In test cases where the posterior can be derived exactly, likelihood-free inference based on automatically derived IMNN summaries produces nearly exact posteriors, showing that these summaries are good approximations to sufficient statistics. In a series of numerical examples of increasing complexity and astrophysical relevance we show that IMNNs are robustly capable of automatically finding optimal, nonlinear summaries of the data even in cases where linear compression fails: inferring the variance of Gaussian signal in the presence of noise, inferring cosmological parameters from mock simulations of the Lyman-α forest in quasar spectra, and inferring frequency-domain parameters from LISA-like detections of gravitational waveforms. In this final case, the IMNN summary outperforms linear data compression by avoiding the introduction of spurious likelihood maxima. We anticipate that the automatic physical inference method described in this paper will be essential to obtain both accurate and precise cosmological parameter estimates from complex and large astronomical data sets, including those from LSST and Euclid.

  13. Vulnerability assessment of small islands to tourism: The case of the Marine Tourism Park of the Gili Matra Islands, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fery Kurniawan

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Indonesian government is currently directing its focus of development on the optimum uses of marine and coastal ecosystem services including the marine and coastal tourism. One of the main locus of coastal and marine tourism is the small islands tourism such as Gili Matra Islands among others. Small islands tourism is one of the favourite touristic activities because the destination provides beauty, exotism, aesthetic and a diversity of natural habitats including the warm, clear and attractive water. Tourism is being considered as a development instrument in order to boost a country’s economy and has become part of the global industry. However, tourism is also one of the actors that is responsible for environmental depletion, due to the constructions of buildings and tourism activities. This paper aims to study the level of vulnerability in small islands to tourism as a basis of integrated small islands management in Indonesian conservation area. The group of islands in this study consists of three islands namely Gili Ayer Island, Gili Meno Island and Gili Trawangan Island (known as Gili Matra Islands that were observed using Small Islands Vulnerability Index (SIVI. The results indicate that Gili Matra Islands have a vulnerability status from low into moderate, ranging from 2.25 to 2.75. Gili Ayer Island has the highest vulnerability with SIVI of 2.75 (Moderate, followed by Gili Meno Island with SIVI of 2.50 (Low and Gili Trawangan Island with SIVI of 2.25 (Low. The driving factor of vulnerability is the intensive utilization of marine tourism activities. Tourism is the sole stress to Gili Matra Island’s ecosystem due to its direct damaging impact and reducing its environmental quality. The vulnerability index which was built from the coastline, coral reef, live coral reef, and development area was applicable to assess the small island’s vulnerability in Indonesia, especially for coral island.

  14. Dendrochronology of Strain-Relaxed Islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merdzhanova, T.; Kiravittaya, S.; Rastelli, A.; Stoffel, M.; Denker, U.; Schmidt, O.G.

    2006-01-01

    We report on the observation and study of tree-ring structures below dislocated SiGe islands (superdomes) grown on Si(001) substrates. Analogous to the study of tree rings (dendrochronology), these footprints enable us to gain unambiguous information on the growth and evolution of superdomes and their neighboring islands. The temperature dependence of the critical volume for dislocation introduction is measured and related to the composition of the islands. We show clearly that island coalescence is the dominant pathway towards dislocation nucleation at low temperatures, while at higher temperatures anomalous coarsening is effective and leads to the formation of a depletion region around superdomes

  15. Dendrochronology of strain-relaxed islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merdzhanova, T; Kiravittaya, S; Rastelli, A; Stoffel, M; Denker, U; Schmidt, O G

    2006-06-09

    We report on the observation and study of tree-ring structures below dislocated SiGe islands (superdomes) grown on Si(001) substrates. Analogous to the study of tree rings (dendrochronology), these footprints enable us to gain unambiguous information on the growth and evolution of superdomes and their neighboring islands. The temperature dependence of the critical volume for dislocation introduction is measured and related to the composition of the islands. We show clearly that island coalescence is the dominant pathway towards dislocation nucleation at low temperatures, while at higher temperatures anomalous coarsening is effective and leads to the formation of a depletion region around superdomes.

  16. Snakes on the Balearic islands: an invasion tale with implications for native biodiversity conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva-Rocha, Iolanda; Salvi, Daniele; Sillero, Neftalí; Mateo, Jose A; Carretero, Miguel A

    2015-01-01

    Biological invasions are a major conservation threat for biodiversity worldwide. Islands are particularly vulnerable to invasive species, especially Mediterranean islands which have suffered human pressure since ancient times. In the Balearic archipelago, reptiles represent an outstanding case with more alien than native species. Moreover, in the last decade a new wave of alien snakes landed in the main islands of the archipelago, some of which were originally snake-free. The identification of the origin and colonization pathways of alien species, as well as the prediction of their expansion, is crucial to develop effective conservation strategies. In this study, we used molecular markers to assess the allochthonous status and the putative origin of the four introduced snake species (Hemorrhois hippocrepis, Malpolon monspessulanus, Macroprotodon mauritanicus and Rhinechis scalaris) as well as ecological niche models to infer their patterns of invasion and expansion based on current and future habitat suitability. For most species, DNA sequence data suggested the Iberian Peninsula as the potential origin of the allochthonous populations, although the shallow phylogeographic structure of these species prevented the identification of a restricted source-area. For all of them, the ecological niche models showed a current low habitat suitability in the Balearic, which is however predicted to increase significantly in the next few decades under climate change scenarios. Evidence from direct observations and spatial distribution of the first-occurrence records of alien snakes (but also lizards and worm lizards) suggest the nursery trade, and in particular olive tree importation from Iberian Peninsula, as the main pathway of introduction of alien reptiles in the Balearic islands. This trend has been reported also for recent invasions in NE Spain, thus showing that olive trees transplantation may be an effective vector for bioinvasion across the Mediterranean. The

  17. Snakes on the Balearic islands: an invasion tale with implications for native biodiversity conservation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iolanda Silva-Rocha

    Full Text Available Biological invasions are a major conservation threat for biodiversity worldwide. Islands are particularly vulnerable to invasive species, especially Mediterranean islands which have suffered human pressure since ancient times. In the Balearic archipelago, reptiles represent an outstanding case with more alien than native species. Moreover, in the last decade a new wave of alien snakes landed in the main islands of the archipelago, some of which were originally snake-free. The identification of the origin and colonization pathways of alien species, as well as the prediction of their expansion, is crucial to develop effective conservation strategies. In this study, we used molecular markers to assess the allochthonous status and the putative origin of the four introduced snake species (Hemorrhois hippocrepis, Malpolon monspessulanus, Macroprotodon mauritanicus and Rhinechis scalaris as well as ecological niche models to infer their patterns of invasion and expansion based on current and future habitat suitability. For most species, DNA sequence data suggested the Iberian Peninsula as the potential origin of the allochthonous populations, although the shallow phylogeographic structure of these species prevented the identification of a restricted source-area. For all of them, the ecological niche models showed a current low habitat suitability in the Balearic, which is however predicted to increase significantly in the next few decades under climate change scenarios. Evidence from direct observations and spatial distribution of the first-occurrence records of alien snakes (but also lizards and worm lizards suggest the nursery trade, and in particular olive tree importation from Iberian Peninsula, as the main pathway of introduction of alien reptiles in the Balearic islands. This trend has been reported also for recent invasions in NE Spain, thus showing that olive trees transplantation may be an effective vector for bioinvasion across the

  18. The Limacidae of the Canary Islands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Regteren Altena, van C.O.

    1950-01-01

    CONTENTS Introduction............... 3 Systematic survey of the Limacidae of the central and western Canary Islands 5 Biogeographical notes on the Limacidae of the Canary Islands . . . . 21 Alphabetical list of the persons who collected or observed Limacidae in the Canary Islands.............. 31

  19. Inference as Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Jane

    2007-01-01

    Inference, or decision making, is seen in curriculum documents as the final step in a statistical investigation. For a formal statistical enquiry this may be associated with sophisticated tests involving probability distributions. For young students without the mathematical background to perform such tests, it is still possible to draw informal…

  20. Problem solving and inference mechanisms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Furukawa, K; Nakajima, R; Yonezawa, A; Goto, S; Aoyama, A

    1982-01-01

    The heart of the fifth generation computer will be powerful mechanisms for problem solving and inference. A deduction-oriented language is to be designed, which will form the core of the whole computing system. The language is based on predicate logic with the extended features of structuring facilities, meta structures and relational data base interfaces. Parallel computation mechanisms and specialized hardware architectures are being investigated to make possible efficient realization of the language features. The project includes research into an intelligent programming system, a knowledge representation language and system, and a meta inference system to be built on the core. 30 references.

  1. Elements of Causal Inference: Foundations and Learning Algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peters, Jonas Martin; Janzing, Dominik; Schölkopf, Bernhard

    A concise and self-contained introduction to causal inference, increasingly important in data science and machine learning......A concise and self-contained introduction to causal inference, increasingly important in data science and machine learning...

  2. Genomic island excisions in Bordetella petrii

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Levillain Erwan

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Among the members of the genus Bordetella B. petrii is unique, since it is the only species isolated from the environment, while the pathogenic Bordetellae are obligately associated with host organisms. Another feature distinguishing B. petrii from the other sequenced Bordetellae is the presence of a large number of mobile genetic elements including several large genomic regions with typical characteristics of genomic islands collectively known as integrative and conjugative elements (ICEs. These elements mainly encode accessory metabolic factors enabling this bacterium to grow on a large repertoire of aromatic compounds. Results During in vitro culture of Bordetella petrii colony variants appear frequently. We show that this variability can be attributed to the presence of a large number of metastable mobile genetic elements on its chromosome. In fact, the genome sequence of B. petrii revealed the presence of at least seven large genomic islands mostly encoding accessory metabolic functions involved in the degradation of aromatic compounds and detoxification of heavy metals. Four of these islands (termed GI1 to GI3 and GI6 are highly related to ICEclc of Pseudomonas knackmussii sp. strain B13. Here we present first data about the molecular characterization of these islands. We defined the exact borders of each island and we show that during standard culture of the bacteria these islands get excised from the chromosome. For all but one of these islands (GI5 we could detect circular intermediates. For the clc-like elements GI1 to GI3 of B. petrii we provide evidence that tandem insertion of these islands which all encode highly related integrases and attachment sites may also lead to incorporation of genomic DNA which originally was not part of the island and to the formation of huge composite islands. By integration of a tetracycline resistance cassette into GI3 we found this island to be rather unstable and to be lost from

  3. CRED Gridded Bathymetry of Necker Island (100-021) in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — File 100-021b is a 60-m ASCII grid of depth data collected near Necker Island in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands as of May 2003. This grid has been produced as...

  4. Tsunami Stratigraphy in a Coastal Salt Pond, St. Croix, US Virgin Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, P.; Browning, T. N.; Brooks, G.; Larson, R. A.; Cook, A.; Sawyer, D. E.

    2017-12-01

    The Caribbean has significant exposure to tsunamis from multiple sources, such as earthquakes, volcanoes, and landslides. Due to the limited historical record in the region, paleotsunami deposits provide important information about the size, location, and sources of these events. In turn, these data inform the public and policymakers about the tsunamigenic threat to their communities. A key challenge is that tsunami deposits are often poorly preserved. However, a good candidate for high preservation potential are coastal salt ponds commonly found on the perimeter of tropical islands. The US Virgin Islands has both high susceptibility to tsunamis and large, low lying salt ponds. The most prominent historical example of a tsunami in the US Virgin Islands is the 1867 event which caused widespread devastation throughout the region, including Puerto Rico. One of the hardest hit locations was Frederiksted, on the western end of St. Croix, US Virgin Islands with 7m runups that beached the USS Monongahela. Frederiksted is also in close proximity to a large coastal salt pond. We targeted this, and older, events by collecting a series of sediment cores at four sites in the salt pond during a summer 2017 field campaign. At each location we acquired a 3" aluminum core and a 4" acrylic companion core to core refusal, which most often occurred at a impenetrable horizon. Maximum core recovery was .79m and the average was .54m. Each 4" core was extruded in 1cm intervals and used to determine grain size, total carbon content, and age dating via radioisotope dating. The 3" core was scanned in a X-Ray CT Lab, split, described, and samples from key layers were targeted for detailed sedimentological analyses. The defining stratigraphic sequence is fine-grained muds interspersed with coarse-grained units that exhibit a fining-upwards trend and contained a variety of marine debris, which we infer to represent tsunami or tropical storm event deposits. However, each core did not exhibit

  5. Bayesian methods for hackers probabilistic programming and Bayesian inference

    CERN Document Server

    Davidson-Pilon, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples a...

  6. The geology of the Falkland Islands

    OpenAIRE

    Aldiss, D.T.; Edwards, E.J.

    1999-01-01

    This report is complementary to the 1:250 000 scale geological map of the Falkland Islands compiled in 1998. The report and map are products of the Falkland Islands Geological Mapping Project (1996-1998). Geological observation and research in the Islands date from 1764. The Islands were visited during two pioneering scientific cruises in the 19th century. Subsequently, many scientists visited en route to the Antarctic or Patagonia. Geological affinities to other parts of the sout...

  7. The Solomon Islands tsunami of 6 February 2013 field survey in the Santa Cruz Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, H. M.; Papantoniou, A.; Biukoto, L.; Albert, G.

    2013-12-01

    On February 6, 2013 at 01:12:27 UTC (local time: UTC+11), a magnitude Mw 8.0 earthquake occurred 70 km to the west of Ndendo Island (Santa Cruz Island) in the Solomon Islands. The under-thrusting earthquake near a 90° bend, where the Australian plate subducts beneath the Pacific plate generated a locally focused tsunami in the Coral Sea and the South Pacific Ocean. The tsunami claimed the lives of 10 people and injured 15, destroyed 588 houses and partially damaged 478 houses, affecting 4,509 people in 1,066 households corresponding to an estimated 37% of the population of Santa Cruz Island. A multi-disciplinary international tsunami survey team (ITST) was deployed within days of the event to document flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment and coral boulder depositions, land level changes, damage patterns at various scales, performance of the man-made infrastructure and impact on the natural environment. The 19 to 23 February 2013 ITST covered 30 locations on 4 Islands: Ndendo (Santa Cruz), Tomotu Noi (Lord Howe), Nea Tomotu (Trevanion, Malo) and Tinakula. The reconnaissance completely circling Ndendo and Tinakula logged 240 km by small boat and additionally covered 20 km of Ndendo's hard hit western coastline by vehicle. The collected survey data includes more than 80 tsunami runup and flow depth measurements. The tsunami impact peaked at Manoputi on Ndendo's densely populated west coast with maximum tsunami height exceeding 11 m and local flow depths above ground exceeding 7 m. A fast tide-like positive amplitude of 1 m was recorded at Lata wharf inside Graciosa Bay on Ndendo Island and misleadingly reported in the media as representative tsunami height. The stark contrast between the field observations on exposed coastlines and the Lata tide gauge recording highlights the importance of rapid tsunami reconnaissance surveys. Inundation distance and damage more than 500 m inland were recorded at Lata airport on Ndendo Island. Landslides were

  8. Forces in the development of remote islands in Japan : A case study of local energy enterprises in Tsushima Island

    OpenAIRE

    Matsumura, Yuko; Miyoshi, Emako

    2018-01-01

    Japan, one of the most famous islander nations in the world, has promoted the development of its remote islands for over 60 years after the Second World War. The target islands and projects for fostering development have been steadily expanded. However, the country is facing serious socio-economic challenges such as aging and recession, resulting in less available funding for preferential treatment to remote islands. Thus, the framework for boosting island development should be reconsidered, ...

  9. Causal inference in econometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

    2016-01-01

    This book is devoted to the analysis of causal inference which is one of the most difficult tasks in data analysis: when two phenomena are observed to be related, it is often difficult to decide whether one of them causally influences the other one, or whether these two phenomena have a common cause. This analysis is the main focus of this volume. To get a good understanding of the causal inference, it is important to have models of economic phenomena which are as accurate as possible. Because of this need, this volume also contains papers that use non-traditional economic models, such as fuzzy models and models obtained by using neural networks and data mining techniques. It also contains papers that apply different econometric models to analyze real-life economic dependencies.

  10. CpG island mapping by epigenome prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christoph Bock

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available CpG islands were originally identified by epigenetic and functional properties, namely, absence of DNA methylation and frequent promoter association. However, this concept was quickly replaced by simple DNA sequence criteria, which allowed for genome-wide annotation of CpG islands in the absence of large-scale epigenetic datasets. Although widely used, the current CpG island criteria incur significant disadvantages: (1 reliance on arbitrary threshold parameters that bear little biological justification, (2 failure to account for widespread heterogeneity among CpG islands, and (3 apparent lack of specificity when applied to the human genome. This study is driven by the idea that a quantitative score of "CpG island strength" that incorporates epigenetic and functional aspects can help resolve these issues. We construct an epigenome prediction pipeline that links the DNA sequence of CpG islands to their epigenetic states, including DNA methylation, histone modifications, and chromatin accessibility. By training support vector machines on epigenetic data for CpG islands on human Chromosomes 21 and 22, we identify informative DNA attributes that correlate with open versus compact chromatin structures. These DNA attributes are used to predict the epigenetic states of all CpG islands genome-wide. Combining predictions for multiple epigenetic features, we estimate the inherent CpG island strength for each CpG island in the human genome, i.e., its inherent tendency to exhibit an open and transcriptionally competent chromatin structure. We extensively validate our results on independent datasets, showing that the CpG island strength predictions are applicable and informative across different tissues and cell types, and we derive improved maps of predicted "bona fide" CpG islands. The mapping of CpG islands by epigenome prediction is conceptually superior to identifying CpG islands by widely used sequence criteria since it links CpG island detection to

  11. CpG island mapping by epigenome prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Christoph; Walter, Jörn; Paulsen, Martina; Lengauer, Thomas

    2007-06-01

    CpG islands were originally identified by epigenetic and functional properties, namely, absence of DNA methylation and frequent promoter association. However, this concept was quickly replaced by simple DNA sequence criteria, which allowed for genome-wide annotation of CpG islands in the absence of large-scale epigenetic datasets. Although widely used, the current CpG island criteria incur significant disadvantages: (1) reliance on arbitrary threshold parameters that bear little biological justification, (2) failure to account for widespread heterogeneity among CpG islands, and (3) apparent lack of specificity when applied to the human genome. This study is driven by the idea that a quantitative score of "CpG island strength" that incorporates epigenetic and functional aspects can help resolve these issues. We construct an epigenome prediction pipeline that links the DNA sequence of CpG islands to their epigenetic states, including DNA methylation, histone modifications, and chromatin accessibility. By training support vector machines on epigenetic data for CpG islands on human Chromosomes 21 and 22, we identify informative DNA attributes that correlate with open versus compact chromatin structures. These DNA attributes are used to predict the epigenetic states of all CpG islands genome-wide. Combining predictions for multiple epigenetic features, we estimate the inherent CpG island strength for each CpG island in the human genome, i.e., its inherent tendency to exhibit an open and transcriptionally competent chromatin structure. We extensively validate our results on independent datasets, showing that the CpG island strength predictions are applicable and informative across different tissues and cell types, and we derive improved maps of predicted "bona fide" CpG islands. The mapping of CpG islands by epigenome prediction is conceptually superior to identifying CpG islands by widely used sequence criteria since it links CpG island detection to their characteristic

  12. CRED Gridded Bathymetry of Nihoa Island (100-025) in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — File 100-025b is a 60-m ASCII grid of depth data collected near Nihoa Island in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands as of May 2003. This grid has been produced as part...

  13. Age of overwash and rate of relative sea-level rise inferred from detrital heads and microatolls of medieval corals at Anegada, British Virgin Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer, W.; Feuillet, N.; Robert, H.; Brian, A.; Ten Brink, U. S.; Deschamps, P.; Tuttle, M. P.; Wei, Y.; Fuentes, Z.

    2012-12-01

    Coral boulders deposited on Anegada, an island 120 km south of the Puerto Rico Trench, record overwash dated to AD 1200-1450 and relative sea-level changes that preceded it. Composed largely of Pleistocene limestone, Anegada is less than 8 m above sea level and is fringed on the north and east by a coral reef where Atlantic Ocean waves break. The lowest parts of the island were washed over from the north in AD 1650-1800, as judged from landforms and deposits reported previously (doi:10.1007/s11069-010-9622-6). The coral boulders indicate overwash of higher elevation and earlier age. The boulders were apparently torn from the adjacent reef by a tsunami of nearby origin, as inferred in companion abstracts on geology and modeling. We found the corals scattered in five areas inland from the north shore. Two of the areas show solitary coral heads 1500 m from the reef. The boulders are more numerous in the three other areas, where they are up to 500-700 m from the reef and up to 4 m above sea level. Some were transported over beach ridges or through breaches cut into them. Others are hundreds of meters inland from a modern storm berm. Most rest on the Pleistocene limestone. Many are overturned. Most are broken but few are whole. The largest measured diameter is 2 m and the greatest measured height is 1 m. Most of the boulders are of the brain coral Diploria strigosa, but smaller Porites asteroides and Montastrea annularis are also present. Some of the D. strigosa retain the rounded shape typical of living heads and are dimpled with holes perhaps left by feather-duster worms. The preservation of these features suggests that many of the boulders came ashore alive. We avoided dating a head that shows field evidence for death before transport; an erosional surface cuts across its youngest growth bands and is covered with the remains of encrusting marine organisms. Among the 18 coral boulders dated, 13 form a young group with ages in the range 890±25 to 1020±25 14C yr BP

  14. Equilibrium theory of island biogeography: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angela D. Yu; Simon A. Lei

    2001-01-01

    The topography, climatic pattern, location, and origin of islands generate unique patterns of species distribution. The equilibrium theory of island biogeography creates a general framework in which the study of taxon distribution and broad island trends may be conducted. Critical components of the equilibrium theory include the species-area relationship, island-...

  15. Assessment of network inference methods: how to cope with an underdetermined problem.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline Siegenthaler

    Full Text Available The inference of biological networks is an active research area in the field of systems biology. The number of network inference algorithms has grown tremendously in the last decade, underlining the importance of a fair assessment and comparison among these methods. Current assessments of the performance of an inference method typically involve the application of the algorithm to benchmark datasets and the comparison of the network predictions against the gold standard or reference networks. While the network inference problem is often deemed underdetermined, implying that the inference problem does not have a (unique solution, the consequences of such an attribute have not been rigorously taken into consideration. Here, we propose a new procedure for assessing the performance of gene regulatory network (GRN inference methods. The procedure takes into account the underdetermined nature of the inference problem, in which gene regulatory interactions that are inferable or non-inferable are determined based on causal inference. The assessment relies on a new definition of the confusion matrix, which excludes errors associated with non-inferable gene regulations. For demonstration purposes, the proposed assessment procedure is applied to the DREAM 4 In Silico Network Challenge. The results show a marked change in the ranking of participating methods when taking network inferability into account.

  16. Implementations of geographically weighted lasso in spatial data with multicollinearity (Case study: Poverty modeling of Java Island)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setiyorini, Anis; Suprijadi, Jadi; Handoko, Budhi

    2017-03-01

    Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is a regression model that takes into account the spatial heterogeneity effect. In the application of the GWR, inference on regression coefficients is often of interest, as is estimation and prediction of the response variable. Empirical research and studies have demonstrated that local correlation between explanatory variables can lead to estimated regression coefficients in GWR that are strongly correlated, a condition named multicollinearity. It later results on a large standard error on estimated regression coefficients, and, hence, problematic for inference on relationships between variables. Geographically Weighted Lasso (GWL) is a method which capable to deal with spatial heterogeneity and local multicollinearity in spatial data sets. GWL is a further development of GWR method, which adds a LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) constraint in parameter estimation. In this study, GWL will be applied by using fixed exponential kernel weights matrix to establish a poverty modeling of Java Island, Indonesia. The results of applying the GWL to poverty datasets show that this method stabilizes regression coefficients in the presence of multicollinearity and produces lower prediction and estimation error of the response variable than GWR does.

  17. Probability and Statistical Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Prosper, Harrison B.

    2006-01-01

    These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.

  18. Nearshore coastal bathymetry data collected in 2016 from West Ship Island to Horn Island, Gulf Islands National Seashore, Mississippi

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeWitt, Nancy T.; Stalk, Chelsea A.; Fredericks, Jake J.; Flocks, James G.; Kelso, Kyle W.; Farmer, Andrew S.; Tuten, Thomas M.; Buster, Noreen A.

    2018-04-13

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Mobile District, conducted bathymetric surveys of the nearshore waters surrounding Ship and Horn Islands, Gulf Islands National Seashore, Mississippi. The objective of this study was to establish base-level elevation conditions around West Ship, East Ship, and Horn Islands and their associated active littoral system prior to restoration activities. These activities include the closure of Camille Cut and the placement of sediment in the littoral zone of East Ship Island. These surveys can be compared with future surveys to monitor sediment migration patterns post-restoration and can also be measured against historic bathymetric datasets to further our understanding of island evolution.The USGS collected 667 line-kilometers (km) of single-beam bathymetry data and 844 line-km of interferometric swath bathymetry data in July 2016 under Field Activity Number 2016-347-FA. Data are provided in three datums: (1) the International Terrestrial Reference Frame of 2000 (ellipsoid height); (2) the North American Datum of 1983 (NAD83) CORS96 realization and the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 with respect to the GEOID12B model (orthometric height); and (3) NAD83 (CORS96) and Mean Lower Low Water (tidal datum). Data products, including x,y,zpoint datasets, trackline shapefiles, digital and handwritten Field Activity Collection Systems logs, 50-meter digital elevation model, and formal Federal Geographic Data Committee metadata, are available for download.

  19. Fuzzy logic controller using different inference methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Z.; De Keyser, R.

    1994-01-01

    In this paper the design of fuzzy controllers by using different inference methods is introduced. Configuration of the fuzzy controllers includes a general rule-base which is a collection of fuzzy PI or PD rules, the triangular fuzzy data model and a centre of gravity defuzzification algorithm. The generalized modus ponens (GMP) is used with the minimum operator of the triangular norm. Under the sup-min inference rule, six fuzzy implication operators are employed to calculate the fuzzy look-up tables for each rule base. The performance is tested in simulated systems with MATLAB/SIMULINK. Results show the effects of using the fuzzy controllers with different inference methods and applied to different test processes

  20. An algebra-based method for inferring gene regulatory networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vera-Licona, Paola; Jarrah, Abdul; Garcia-Puente, Luis David; McGee, John; Laubenbacher, Reinhard

    2014-03-26

    The inference of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from experimental observations is at the heart of systems biology. This includes the inference of both the network topology and its dynamics. While there are many algorithms available to infer the network topology from experimental data, less emphasis has been placed on methods that infer network dynamics. Furthermore, since the network inference problem is typically underdetermined, it is essential to have the option of incorporating into the inference process, prior knowledge about the network, along with an effective description of the search space of dynamic models. Finally, it is also important to have an understanding of how a given inference method is affected by experimental and other noise in the data used. This paper contains a novel inference algorithm using the algebraic framework of Boolean polynomial dynamical systems (BPDS), meeting all these requirements. The algorithm takes as input time series data, including those from network perturbations, such as knock-out mutant strains and RNAi experiments. It allows for the incorporation of prior biological knowledge while being robust to significant levels of noise in the data used for inference. It uses an evolutionary algorithm for local optimization with an encoding of the mathematical models as BPDS. The BPDS framework allows an effective representation of the search space for algebraic dynamic models that improves computational performance. The algorithm is validated with both simulated and experimental microarray expression profile data. Robustness to noise is tested using a published mathematical model of the segment polarity gene network in Drosophila melanogaster. Benchmarking of the algorithm is done by comparison with a spectrum of state-of-the-art network inference methods on data from the synthetic IRMA network to demonstrate that our method has good precision and recall for the network reconstruction task, while also predicting several of the

  1. Statistical inference based on divergence measures

    CERN Document Server

    Pardo, Leandro

    2005-01-01

    The idea of using functionals of Information Theory, such as entropies or divergences, in statistical inference is not new. However, in spite of the fact that divergence statistics have become a very good alternative to the classical likelihood ratio test and the Pearson-type statistic in discrete models, many statisticians remain unaware of this powerful approach.Statistical Inference Based on Divergence Measures explores classical problems of statistical inference, such as estimation and hypothesis testing, on the basis of measures of entropy and divergence. The first two chapters form an overview, from a statistical perspective, of the most important measures of entropy and divergence and study their properties. The author then examines the statistical analysis of discrete multivariate data with emphasis is on problems in contingency tables and loglinear models using phi-divergence test statistics as well as minimum phi-divergence estimators. The final chapter looks at testing in general populations, prese...

  2. Active inference, sensory attenuation and illusions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Harriet; Adams, Rick A; Parees, Isabel; Edwards, Mark; Friston, Karl

    2013-11-01

    Active inference provides a simple and neurobiologically plausible account of how action and perception are coupled in producing (Bayes) optimal behaviour. This can be seen most easily as minimising prediction error: we can either change our predictions to explain sensory input through perception. Alternatively, we can actively change sensory input to fulfil our predictions. In active inference, this action is mediated by classical reflex arcs that minimise proprioceptive prediction error created by descending proprioceptive predictions. However, this creates a conflict between action and perception; in that, self-generated movements require predictions to override the sensory evidence that one is not actually moving. However, ignoring sensory evidence means that externally generated sensations will not be perceived. Conversely, attending to (proprioceptive and somatosensory) sensations enables the detection of externally generated events but precludes generation of actions. This conflict can be resolved by attenuating the precision of sensory evidence during movement or, equivalently, attending away from the consequences of self-made acts. We propose that this Bayes optimal withdrawal of precise sensory evidence during movement is the cause of psychophysical sensory attenuation. Furthermore, it explains the force-matching illusion and reproduces empirical results almost exactly. Finally, if attenuation is removed, the force-matching illusion disappears and false (delusional) inferences about agency emerge. This is important, given the negative correlation between sensory attenuation and delusional beliefs in normal subjects--and the reduction in the magnitude of the illusion in schizophrenia. Active inference therefore links the neuromodulatory optimisation of precision to sensory attenuation and illusory phenomena during the attribution of agency in normal subjects. It also provides a functional account of deficits in syndromes characterised by false inference

  3. Bayesian Inference and Online Learning in Poisson Neuronal Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yanping; Rao, Rajesh P N

    2016-08-01

    Motivated by the growing evidence for Bayesian computation in the brain, we show how a two-layer recurrent network of Poisson neurons can perform both approximate Bayesian inference and learning for any hidden Markov model. The lower-layer sensory neurons receive noisy measurements of hidden world states. The higher-layer neurons infer a posterior distribution over world states via Bayesian inference from inputs generated by sensory neurons. We demonstrate how such a neuronal network with synaptic plasticity can implement a form of Bayesian inference similar to Monte Carlo methods such as particle filtering. Each spike in a higher-layer neuron represents a sample of a particular hidden world state. The spiking activity across the neural population approximates the posterior distribution over hidden states. In this model, variability in spiking is regarded not as a nuisance but as an integral feature that provides the variability necessary for sampling during inference. We demonstrate how the network can learn the likelihood model, as well as the transition probabilities underlying the dynamics, using a Hebbian learning rule. We present results illustrating the ability of the network to perform inference and learning for arbitrary hidden Markov models.

  4. Can Perceptions of Environmental and Climate Change in Island Communities Assist in Adaptation Planning Locally?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aswani, Shankar; Vaccaro, Ismael; Abernethy, Kirsten; Albert, Simon; de Pablo, Javier Fernández-López

    2015-12-01

    Local perceptions of environmental and climate change, as well as associated adaptations made by local populations, are fundamental for designing comprehensive and inclusive mitigation and adaptation plans both locally and nationally. In this paper, we analyze people's perceptions of environmental and climate-related transformations in communities across the Western Solomon Islands through ethnographic and geospatial methods. Specifically, we documented people's observed changes over the past decades across various environmental domains, and for each change, we asked respondents to identify the causes, timing, and people's adaptive responses. We also incorporated this information into a geographical information system database to produce broad-scale base maps of local perceptions of environmental change. Results suggest that people detected changes that tended to be acute (e.g., water clarity, logging intensity, and agricultural diseases). We inferred from these results that most local observations of and adaptations to change were related to parts of environment/ecosystem that are most directly or indirectly related to harvesting strategies. On the other hand, people were less aware of slower insidious/chronic changes identified by scientific studies. For the Solomon Islands and similar contexts in the insular tropics, a broader anticipatory adaptation planning strategy to climate change should include a mix of local scientific studies and local observations of ongoing ecological changes.

  5. Soil-vegetation relationships on a banded ironstone 'island', Carajás Plateau, Brazilian Eastern Amazonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, Jaquelina A; Schaefer, Carlos E G R; Ferreira Júnior, Walnir G; Neri, Andreza V; Correa, Guilherme R; Enright, Neal J

    2015-01-01

    Vegetation and soil properties of an iron-rich canga (laterite) island on the largest outcrop of banded-iron formation in Serra de Carajás (eastern Amazonia, Brazil) were studied along a topographic gradient (738-762 m asl), and analyzed to test the hypothesis that soil chemical and physical attributes play a key role in the structure and floristic composition of these plant communities. Soil and vegetation were sampled in eight replicate plots within each of the four vegetation types. Surface (0-10 cm) soil samples from each plot were analyzed for basic cations, N, P and plant species density for all species was recorded. CCA ordination analysis showed a strong separation between forest and non-forest sites on the first axis, and between herbaceous and shrubby campo rupestre on the second axis. The four vegetation types shared few plant species, which was attributed to their distinctive soil environments and filtering of their constituent species by chemical, physical and hydrological constraints. Thus, we can infer that Edaphic (pedological) factors are crucial in explaining the types and distributions of campo rupestre vegetation associated with ferruginous ironstone uplands (Canga) in Carajás, eastern Amazonia, therefore the soil properties are the main drivers of vegetation composition and structure on these ironstone islands.

  6. Checklist of marine fishes of the Zunan Islands, located between the Izu and Ogasawara (Bonin) islands, Japan, with zoogeographical comments

    OpenAIRE

    Kuriiwa, Kaoru; Arihara, Hisashi; Chiba, Satoru; Kato, Shoichi; Senou, Hiroshi; Matsuura, Keiichi

    2014-01-01

    The Zunan Islands are located 360–650 km south of Tokyo, and consist of four uninhabited volcanoes: the Bayonnaise Rocks, the Smith Rocks, Torishima Island and the Sofugan Rock. Although all of the elements of the Zunan Islands are tiny islets and rocks, they form a series of stepping stones for shallow water fishes between the Izu Islands in the north and the Ogasawara (Bonin) Islands in the south. We report here the first comprehensive survey of marine fishes in the Zunan Islands. A total o...

  7. Contingency inferences driven by base rates: Valid by sampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Kutzner

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Fiedler et al. (2009, reviewed evidence for the utilization of a contingency inference strategy termed pseudocontingencies (PCs. In PCs, the more frequent levels (and, by implication, the less frequent levels are assumed to be associated. PCs have been obtained using a wide range of task settings and dependent measures. Yet, the readiness with which decision makers rely on PCs is poorly understood. A computer simulation explored two potential sources of subjective validity of PCs. First, PCs are shown to perform above chance level when the task is to infer the sign of moderate to strong population contingencies from a sample of observations. Second, contingency inferences based on PCs and inferences based on cell frequencies are shown to partially agree across samples. Intriguingly, this criterion and convergent validity are by-products of random sampling error, highlighting the inductive nature of contingency inferences.

  8. Ecology and Evolution: Islands of Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benz, Richard

    This book was designed for middle and junior high school science classes and focuses on island biogeography, ecology, and evolution. Sections include: (1) "Galapagos: Frame of Reference"; (2) "Ecology and Islands"; and (3) "Evolution." Nineteen standards-based activities use the Galapagos Islands as a running theme…

  9. Reinforcement and inference in cross-situational word learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilles, Paulo F C; Fontanari, José F

    2013-01-01

    Cross-situational word learning is based on the notion that a learner can determine the referent of a word by finding something in common across many observed uses of that word. Here we propose an adaptive learning algorithm that contains a parameter that controls the strength of the reinforcement applied to associations between concurrent words and referents, and a parameter that regulates inference, which includes built-in biases, such as mutual exclusivity, and information of past learning events. By adjusting these parameters so that the model predictions agree with data from representative experiments on cross-situational word learning, we were able to explain the learning strategies adopted by the participants of those experiments in terms of a trade-off between reinforcement and inference. These strategies can vary wildly depending on the conditions of the experiments. For instance, for fast mapping experiments (i.e., the correct referent could, in principle, be inferred in a single observation) inference is prevalent, whereas for segregated contextual diversity experiments (i.e., the referents are separated in groups and are exhibited with members of their groups only) reinforcement is predominant. Other experiments are explained with more balanced doses of reinforcement and inference.

  10. Data-driven inference for the spatial scan statistic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Alexandre C L; Duarte, Anderson R; Duczmal, Luiz H; Oliveira, Fernando L P; Takahashi, Ricardo H C

    2011-08-02

    Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic for aggregated area maps searches for clusters of cases without specifying their size (number of areas) or geographic location in advance. Their statistical significance is tested while adjusting for the multiple testing inherent in such a procedure. However, as is shown in this work, this adjustment is not done in an even manner for all possible cluster sizes. A modification is proposed to the usual inference test of the spatial scan statistic, incorporating additional information about the size of the most likely cluster found. A new interpretation of the results of the spatial scan statistic is done, posing a modified inference question: what is the probability that the null hypothesis is rejected for the original observed cases map with a most likely cluster of size k, taking into account only those most likely clusters of size k found under null hypothesis for comparison? This question is especially important when the p-value computed by the usual inference process is near the alpha significance level, regarding the correctness of the decision based in this inference. A practical procedure is provided to make more accurate inferences about the most likely cluster found by the spatial scan statistic.

  11. Tools for sustainability assessment in island socio-ecological systems: an application to the Canary Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel Banos-González

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available An integral dynamic model, in combination with other methods (indicators, policy and scenario analysis, is presented as a tool for sustainability assessment in island socio-ecological systems (SES. The Fuerteventura sustainability model (FSM, tested for the 1996-2011, allows a better understanding of the dynamic interactions between sustainability indicators and other factors of this island. The FSM was first applied to analyse the vulnerability of this island to climate change for the 2012-2025 period; results point to the need for urgent measures to mitigate its effects on some of the analysed indicators. A set of policy measures was then assessed from the behaviour of nine indicators and their sustainability thresholds. Finally, the FSM facilitated the development of a dynamic model of the island of El Hierro, extrapolating the features common to both SES. We propose this to be a useful tool for the quantitative sustainability assessment and the management of real island socio-ecological systems

  12. The Idea of the Archipelago: Contemplating Island Relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Stratford

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Creative, innovative, and timely research on islands and island futures is warranted and pressing, not least because island(ers are poorly served by established tropes of them as subordinate to continents or mainlands. Opportunities exist to provide a more thoroughgoing account of island life and island relations, and the seven papers in this special issue address that task. In works that consider islands in the Timor Sea, the Caribbean, the Pacific, Atlantic and Southern Oceans, and that span several different disciplinary frames—archival-historical, critical theoretical, literary, cultural, geopolitical, sociological and artistic—these papers evidence both the diversity of approach to thinking with the archipelago, and numerous points in common. Among the latter is an understanding that island relations are built on connection, assemblage, mobility, and multiplicity, and a commitment to critically examine the ways in which these entanglements affect and give effect to island life. The models of island relationality brought to light by this collective focus on the archipelago reveal new and diverse connections of island peoples with their physical and cultural environments, and with the world beyond; create spaces for growing resilience, association and engagement; and invite further study.

  13. seal Arctocephaius tropicaiis at Gough Island

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population increase in the Amsterdam Island fur seal Arctocephaius tropicaiis at Gough Island. M.N. Bester. Mammal Research Institute, University of Pretoria, Pretoria. Population size of Arctocephalus tropicalis on Gough Island was determined by direct censuses of parts of the coast duro ing the summers of 1974 - 1976 ...

  14. Simple method for calculating island widths

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cary, J.R.; Hanson, J.D.; Carreras, B.A.; Lynch, V.E.

    1989-01-01

    A simple method for calculating magnetic island widths has been developed. This method uses only information obtained from integrating along the closed field line at the island center. Thus, this method is computationally less intensive than the usual method of producing surfaces of section of sufficient detail to locate and resolve the island separatrix. This method has been implemented numerically and used to analyze the buss work islands of ATF. In this case the method proves to be accurate to at least within 30%. 7 refs

  15. Recommendations for a barrier island breach management plan for Fire Island National Seashore, including the Otis Pike High Dune Wilderness Area, Long Island, New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, S. Jeffress; Foley, Mary K.

    2007-01-01

    The U.S Army Corps of Engineers, New York District is developing engineering plans, including economic costs and benefits, for storm damage reduction along an 83 mile stretch of the coastal barrier islands and beaches on the south shore of Long Island, NY from Fire Island Inlet east to the Montauk Point headland. The plan, expected to include various alternatives for storm protection and erosion mitigation, is referred to as the Fire Island to Montauk Point Reformulation Plan (FIMP). These plans are expected to follow the Corps of Engineers’ Environmental Operating Principles striving for long term environmental sustainability and balance between environmental protection and protection of human health and property. Fire Island National Seashore (FIIS), a 19,579 acre unit of the National Park System includes a 32 mile long coastal barrier island located within the FIMP project area. A seven-mile section of the park, Otis Pike Fire Island High Dune Wilderness Area, is also a designated Federal Wilderness Area. The FIIS includes not only the barrier island and sand dunes, but also several islands, sand flats and wetlands landward of the barrier, submerged parts of Great South Bay shoreface, extending approximately 4,000 feet into the bay with the inner shelf region extending approximately 1,000 feet seaward of the Fire Island shoreline. The Fire Island barrier islands, a sand-starved system dominated by highly dynamic processes, are struggling to maintain their integrity in the face of sea-level rise and storms. Adding to the dilemma is that development on the barriers and the mainland has increased greatly during the past 50 years. As such, managers and decision makers in federal agencies, state agencies and local governments are challenged to balance tradeoffs between protection of lives and property, public access and long term conservation of natural habitats and processes and the plants and animals that depend on these habitats. National Park Service (NPS

  16. Mosquito Surveys Carried out On Green Island, Orchid Island, and Penghu Island, Taiwan, in 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hwa-Jen Teng

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available Field surveys of mosquitoes were carried out on Green, Orchid, and Penghu Islands in 2003 to ascertain the status of mosquito vectors. Eighteen species of mosquitoes were collected, including three species of Anopheles, four species of Aedes, eight species of Culex, two species of Armigeres, and one species of Malaya. Seventeen previously recorded species were not collected in this study but 11 species collected had not previously been recorded. Ten newly recorded species, An. maculatus, An. takasagoensis, Ae. alcasidi, Ae. lineatopennis, Ae. vexans vexans, Ar. omissus, Cx. vishnui, Cx. halifaxii, Cx. hayashii, and Cx. neomimulus, were collected on Green Island and one previously unrecorded species, Ar. subalbatus, was collected on Orchid Island. Potential vectors An. maculatus and An. sinensis, malaria vectors in Korea and Mainland China, Ae. albopictus, a vector of dengue in Taiwan and West Nile virus in the USA, Cx. vishnui and Cx. tritaeniorhynchus, Japanese encephalitis vectors in Taiwan, Ae. vexans vexans, an eastern equine encephalitis vector in the USA, and Cx. quinquefasciatus, a vector of filariasis in Taiwan and West Nile virus in the USA, were among the mosquito species collected.

  17. Eight challenges in phylodynamic inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon D.W. Frost

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The field of phylodynamics, which attempts to enhance our understanding of infectious disease dynamics using pathogen phylogenies, has made great strides in the past decade. Basic epidemiological and evolutionary models are now well characterized with inferential frameworks in place. However, significant challenges remain in extending phylodynamic inference to more complex systems. These challenges include accounting for evolutionary complexities such as changing mutation rates, selection, reassortment, and recombination, as well as epidemiological complexities such as stochastic population dynamics, host population structure, and different patterns at the within-host and between-host scales. An additional challenge exists in making efficient inferences from an ever increasing corpus of sequence data.

  18. Intersectional gene flow between insular endemics of Ilex (Aquifoliaceae) on the Bonin Islands and the Ryukyu Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setoguchi, H; Watanabe, I

    2000-06-01

    Hybridization and introgression play important roles in plant evolution, and their occurrence on the oceanic islands provides good examples of plant speciation and diversification. Restriction fragment length polymorphisms (RFLPs) and trnL (UAA) 3'exon-trnF (GAA) intergenic spacer (IGS) sequences of chloroplast DNA (cpDNA), and the sequences of internal transcribed spacer (ITS) of nuclear ribosomal DNA were examined to investigate the occurrence of gene transfer in Ilex species on the Bonin Islands and the Ryukyu Islands in Japan. A gene phylogeny for the plastid genome is in agreement with the morphologically based taxonomy, whereas the nuclear genome phylogeny clusters putatively unrelated endemics both on the Bonin and the Ryukyu Islands. Intersectional hybridization and nuclear gene flow were independently observed in insular endemics of Ilex on both sets of islands without evidence of plastid introgression. Gene flow observed in these island systems can be explained by ecological features of insular endemics, i.e., limits of distribution range or sympatric distribution in a small land area.

  19. Seed islands driven by turbulence and NTM dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muraglia, M.; Agullo, O.; Poye, A.; Benkadda, S.; Horton, W.; Dubuit, N.; Garbet, X.; Sen, A.

    2014-10-01

    Magnetic reconnection is an issue for tokamak plasmas. Growing magnetic islands expel energetic particles from the plasma core leading to high energy fluxes in the SOL and may cause damage to the plasma facing components. The islands grow from seeds from the bootstrap current effects that oppose the negative delta-prime producing nonlinear island growth. Experimentally, the onset of NTM is quantified in terms of the beta parameter and the sawtooth period. Indeed, in experiments, (3;2) NTM magnetic islands are often triggered by sawtooth precursors. However (2;1) magnetic islands can appear without noticeable MHD event and the seed islands origin for the NTM growth is still an open question. Macroscale MHD instabilities (magnetic islands) coexist with micro-scale turbulent fluctuations and zonal flows which impact island dynamics. Nonlinear simulations show that the nonlinear beating of the fastest growing small-scale ballooning interchange modes on a low order rational surface drive a magnetic islands located on the same surface. The island size is found to be controlled by the turbulence level and modifies the NTM threshold and dynamics.

  20. Analysis of Three Mile Island - Unit 2 accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-07-01

    The Nuclear Safety Analysis Center (NSAC) of the Electric Power Research Institute is analyzing the Three Mile Island-2 accident. An early result of this analysis was a brief narrative summary, issued in mid May 1979. The present report contains a revised version of that narrative summary, a highly detailed sequence of events, a standard reference list, a list of abbreviations and acronyms, and several appendices. The appendices serve either to describe plant features which are pertinent to the understanding of the sequence of events, or indicate how certain inferences and conclusions in the report were reached. Supplementing the appendices contained herein, additional appendices are in preparation; these will be issued when available (e.g., the appendices Hydrogen Phenomena and Operator Actions during Initial Transient will follow later). Also in preparation is a matrix of equipment and systems actions during the accident. This report together with future supplements and a separate Core Damage Assessment report, will embody the principal results of that phase of NSAC work which is devoted to learning and understanding what happened during the accident. Subsequent phases will concentrate on causes, lessons learned and generic remedial or preventive measures which may be appropriate

  1. Analysis of Three Mile Island-Unit 2 accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-07-01

    The Nuclear Safety Analysis Center (NSAC) of the Electic Power Research Institute is analyzing the Three Mile Island-2 accident. An early result of this analysis was a brief narrative summary, issued in mid-May 1979. The present report contains a revised version of that narrative summary, a highly detailed sequence of events, a standard reference list, a list of abbreviations and acronyms, and several appendices. The appendices serve either to describe plant features which are pertinent to the understanding of the sequence of events, or indicate how certain inferences and conclusions in the report were reached. Supplementing the appendices contained herein, additional appendices are in preparation; these will be issued when available (e.g., the appendices Hydrogen Phenomena and Operator Actions duing Initial Transient will follow later). Also in preparation is a matrix of equipment and systems actions during the accident. This report together with future supplements and a separate Core Damage Assessment report, will embody the principal results of that phase of NSAC's work which is devoted to learning and understanding what happened during the accident. Subsequent phases will concentrate on causes, lessons learned and generic remedial or preventive measures which may be appropriate

  2. Introduced mammals on Western Indian Ocean islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James C. Russell

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The diversity of introduced mammals and their introduction history varies greatly across the Western Indian Ocean (WIO islands, from ancient introductions in the past millennia on islands off the East coast of Africa where extant terrestrial native mammal communities exist, to very recent invasions in the past decades on islands in the Mascarene archipelago. We compile the distribution of 16 introduced mammal taxa on 28 island groups comprising almost 2000 islands. Through an exhaustive literature review and expert consultation process we recorded all mammal eradications, and species recoveries which could be attributed to introduced mammal eradication or control. All island groups have been invaded by mammals, and invasive cats and rats in particular are ubiquitous, but cultural contingency has also led to regional invasions by other mammals such as lemurs, civets and tenrecs. Mammal eradications have been attempted on 45 islands in the WIO, the majority in the Seychelles and Mauritius, and where successful have resulted in spectacular recovery of species and ecosystems. Invasive mammalian predator eradication or control in association with habitat management has led to improved conservation prospects for at least 24 species, and IUCN red-list down-listing of eight species, in the Mascarene Islands. Future island conservation prioritisation in the region will need to take account of global climate change and predicted sea-level rises and coastal inundation. Greater investment and prioritisation in island conservation in the region is warranted, given its high biodiversity values and the extent of invasions.

  3. Vancouver Island gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Des Brisay, C.

    2005-01-01

    Terasen Gas is pursuing alternatives for the supply of additional natural gas capacity to Vancouver Island. Its subsidiary, Terasen Gas (Vancouver Island) Inc. (TGVI), is responding to the need for delivery of increased gas supply and, is supporting plans for new gas-fired power generation on Vancouver Island. TGVI's proposal for new natural gas capacity involves a combination of compression and pipeline loops as well as the addition of a storage facility for liquefied natural gas (LNG) at Mt. Hayes to help manage price volatility. This presentation outlined the objectives and components of the resource planning process, including demand forecast scenarios and the preferred infrastructure options. tabs., figs

  4. Human Inferences about Sequences: A Minimal Transition Probability Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florent Meyniel

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The brain constantly infers the causes of the inputs it receives and uses these inferences to generate statistical expectations about future observations. Experimental evidence for these expectations and their violations include explicit reports, sequential effects on reaction times, and mismatch or surprise signals recorded in electrophysiology and functional MRI. Here, we explore the hypothesis that the brain acts as a near-optimal inference device that constantly attempts to infer the time-varying matrix of transition probabilities between the stimuli it receives, even when those stimuli are in fact fully unpredictable. This parsimonious Bayesian model, with a single free parameter, accounts for a broad range of findings on surprise signals, sequential effects and the perception of randomness. Notably, it explains the pervasive asymmetry between repetitions and alternations encountered in those studies. Our analysis suggests that a neural machinery for inferring transition probabilities lies at the core of human sequence knowledge.

  5. Making Type Inference Practical

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwartzbach, Michael Ignatieff; Oxhøj, Nicholas; Palsberg, Jens

    1992-01-01

    We present the implementation of a type inference algorithm for untyped object-oriented programs with inheritance, assignments, and late binding. The algorithm significantly improves our previous one, presented at OOPSLA'91, since it can handle collection classes, such as List, in a useful way. Abo......, the complexity has been dramatically improved, from exponential time to low polynomial time. The implementation uses the techniques of incremental graph construction and constraint template instantiation to avoid representing intermediate results, doing superfluous work, and recomputing type information....... Experiments indicate that the implementation type checks as much as 100 lines pr. second. This results in a mature product, on which a number of tools can be based, for example a safety tool, an image compression tool, a code optimization tool, and an annotation tool. This may make type inference for object...

  6. Wind energy potential on Malaysian Resort Islands: a case study of Tioman, Redang and Perhentian Island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamaruzzaman Sopian

    2000-01-01

    Wind data collected at three east coast islands of Peninsular Malaysia namely Tioman, Redang and Perhentian Island were analyzed for the wind energy potential. The results were presented as Weibull distribution and preliminary analysis indicate that the site at Redang Island have the greatest potential with a mean power density of 85.1 w/m 2 at 10 meters above sea level. (Author)

  7. Examples in parametric inference with R

    CERN Document Server

    Dixit, Ulhas Jayram

    2016-01-01

    This book discusses examples in parametric inference with R. Combining basic theory with modern approaches, it presents the latest developments and trends in statistical inference for students who do not have an advanced mathematical and statistical background. The topics discussed in the book are fundamental and common to many fields of statistical inference and thus serve as a point of departure for in-depth study. The book is divided into eight chapters: Chapter 1 provides an overview of topics on sufficiency and completeness, while Chapter 2 briefly discusses unbiased estimation. Chapter 3 focuses on the study of moments and maximum likelihood estimators, and Chapter 4 presents bounds for the variance. In Chapter 5, topics on consistent estimator are discussed. Chapter 6 discusses Bayes, while Chapter 7 studies some more powerful tests. Lastly, Chapter 8 examines unbiased and other tests. Senior undergraduate and graduate students in statistics and mathematics, and those who have taken an introductory cou...

  8. Causal Effect Inference with Deep Latent-Variable Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Louizos, C; Shalit, U.; Mooij, J.; Sontag, D.; Zemel, R.; Welling, M.

    2017-01-01

    Learning individual-level causal effects from observational data, such as inferring the most effective medication for a specific patient, is a problem of growing importance for policy makers. The most important aspect of inferring causal effects from observational data is the handling of

  9. Causal inference in survival analysis using pseudo-observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Per K; Syriopoulou, Elisavet; Parner, Erik T

    2017-01-01

    Causal inference for non-censored response variables, such as binary or quantitative outcomes, is often based on either (1) direct standardization ('G-formula') or (2) inverse probability of treatment assignment weights ('propensity score'). To do causal inference in survival analysis, one needs ...

  10. Modeling the Response of Human Altered Natural Barrier Island Dynamics Along Assateague Island National Seashore to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, A.; McNamara, D.; Schupp, C.

    2009-12-01

    Assateague Island National Seashore comprises a long barrier island located off the coasts of Maryland and Virginia. Geological evidence suggests that over recent centuries Assateague Island has steadily transgressed up the continental shelf in response to rising sea level. More recently, the natural barrier island dynamics governing Assateague’s evolution have been altered by human activity in three ways: the construction of a jetty and the subsequent interruption of alongshore sediment transport on the north end of Assateague and both the ongoing and abandoned maintenance of a continuous dune system along portions of Assateague with the concomitant modification to overwash dynamics. It is unclear how these varied human alterations to the natural barrier island dynamics will influence the response of Assateague to climate change induced shifts in forcing such as increased rates of sea level rise and changing storm patterns. We use LIDAR detected morphological data of Assateague Island as initial conditions in an alongshore extended model for barrier island dynamics including beach erosion, island overwash and inlet cutting during storms, and beach accretion, tidal delta growth and dune and vegetation growth between storms to explore the response of the various human altered segments of Assateague Island to forcing changes. Traditional models exploring barrier island evolution contain only cross-shore dynamics therefore lacking important alongshore-spatial dynamics in aeolian and surf zone sediment transport. Results show that including alongshore dynamics alter the steady state of Assateague relative to simulations that only include cross-shore dynamics. Results will also be presented exploring the potential for regime shifts in steady state behavior under various scenarios for the rate of sea level rise and storm climate and varying management strategies.

  11. Statistical Inference at Work: Statistical Process Control as an Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, Arthur; Kent, Phillip; Derry, Jan; Noss, Richard; Hoyles, Celia

    2008-01-01

    To characterise statistical inference in the workplace this paper compares a prototypical type of statistical inference at work, statistical process control (SPC), with a type of statistical inference that is better known in educational settings, hypothesis testing. Although there are some similarities between the reasoning structure involved in…

  12. On quantum statistical inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, O.E.; Gill, R.D.; Jupp, P.E.

    2003-01-01

    Interest in problems of statistical inference connected to measurements of quantum systems has recently increased substantially, in step with dramatic new developments in experimental techniques for studying small quantum systems. Furthermore, developments in the theory of quantum measurements have

  13. Terrestrial radiation measurements in Marshall Islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gudiksen, P.H.

    1978-01-01

    With the prospect of habitation in the near future, radiological surveys were undertaken of Enewetak and Bikini Atolls to provide a basis for determining whether or not the atolls can be safely reinhabited. The surveys included all of the forty islands within Enewetak Atoll, but only the two principal islands, Bikini and Eneu Islands, of Bikini Atoll. These atolls were former U.S. nuclear weapons test sites in the Pacific. Integral parts of the surveys were the measurements of the distributions of radioactivity in the soil and the resulting gamma ray exposure rates for external dose estimation. Numerous soil samples were collected from both atolls for analysis by Ge (Li) gamma spectrometry and by wet chemistry techniques. At Enewetak Atoll the gamma exposure rates were measured by TLDs and a helicopter-borne array of Nal detectors, while at Bikini Atoll portable Nal detectors, pressurized ion-chambers, and TLDs were utilized. The predominant species measured in the soil samples collected from both atolls were 90 Sr, 239,240 Pu, 137 Cs and 60 Co with the latter two nuclides being the primary contributors to the gamma-ray exposure rates. The geographical distribution of the exposure rates measured on both atolls, was highly variable ranging from less than 1 μR/h on islands that had not been impacted radiologically by the testing program, to over 100 μR/h near weapon detonation sites. Thus, within Enewetak Atoll, the highest soil activities and gamma-ray exposure rates were measured on the northern islands, where the weapons testing had been most intense. Bikini Island exhibited contamination levels that were considerably higher than those on Eneu Island. Generally, the highest activity levels were observed within the island interiors or in proximity to ground zero sites, and could usually be related to the surrounding vegetation density. The island of Yvonne, within Enewetak Atoll, is the most severely contaminated land area. Particles containing as much as several

  14. Globally threatened vertebrates on islands with invasive species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spatz, Dena R; Zilliacus, Kelly M; Holmes, Nick D; Butchart, Stuart H M; Genovesi, Piero; Ceballos, Gerardo; Tershy, Bernie R; Croll, Donald A

    2017-10-01

    Global biodiversity loss is disproportionately rapid on islands, where invasive species are a major driver of extinctions. To inform conservation planning aimed at preventing extinctions, we identify the distribution and biogeographic patterns of highly threatened terrestrial vertebrates (classified by the International Union for Conservation of Nature) and invasive vertebrates on ~465,000 islands worldwide by conducting a comprehensive literature review and interviews with more than 500 experts. We found that 1189 highly threatened vertebrate species (319 amphibians, 282 reptiles, 296 birds, and 292 mammals) breed on 1288 islands. These taxa represent only 5% of Earth's terrestrial vertebrates and 41% of all highly threatened terrestrial vertebrates, which occur in vertebrates was available for 1030 islands (80% of islands with highly threatened vertebrates). Invasive vertebrates were absent from 24% of these islands, where biosecurity to prevent invasions is a critical management tool. On the 76% of islands where invasive vertebrates were present, management could benefit 39% of Earth's highly threatened vertebrates. Invasive mammals occurred in 97% of these islands, with Rattus sp. as the most common invasive vertebrate (78%; 609 islands). Our results provide an important baseline for identifying islands for invasive species eradication and other island conservation actions that reduce biodiversity loss.

  15. North Aegean island landscapes as ecomuseums: the case of Lesvos Island

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evangelos Pavlis

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The main advantage of the Aegean islands, in generating national, regional, or international competitiveness, compared to the areas on the continental mainland, is their natural and cultural assets, their cultural landscapes. Consequently, the organized utilization of cultural heritage, rich biodiversity, and the unique Aegean landscape, could make the islands attractive as places to live or work and help them fulfill their sustainability goals. Ecomuseums are ‘in situ’ museums, aimed at local communities and managed by them, aiming at the interpretation, protection, utilization, and promotion of natural and cultural assets of a place, and at the economic revival of marginal regions through the combinational development of small-scale tourism, local manufacturing, and primary production sectors. They could function as laboratories of sustainable development. The island of Lesvos has been selected as a case study for such a potential ecomuseum.

  16. Frog size on continental islands of the coast of Rio de Janeiro and the generality of the Island Rule.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raoni Rebouças

    Full Text Available Island Rule postulated that individuals on islands tend to dwarfism when individuals from mainland populations are large and to gigantism when mainland populations present small individuals. There has been much discussion about this rule, but only few studies were carried out aiming to reveal this pattern for anurans. Our study focused on measuring the size of individuals on islands and to find a possible pattern of size modification for insular anurans. Individuals were collected on continental islands, measured and compared to mainland populations. We selected four species with different natural history aspects during these analyses. Island parameters were compared to size of individuals in order to find an explanation to size modification. Three of the four species presented size shifting on islands. Ololygon trapicheiroi and Adenomera marmorata showed dwarfism, Boana albomarginata showed gigantism and in Thoropa miliaris there was no evident size modification. Allometric analysis also revealed differential modification, which might be a result of different selective pressures on islands in respect of mainland populations. Regression model explained most of the size modification in B. albomarginata, but not for the other species. Our results indicate that previous assumptions, usually proposed for mammals from older islands, do not fit to the anurans studied here. We support the assumption that size modification on islands are population-specific. Hence, in B. albomarginata some factor associated to competition, living area and isolation time might likely be responsible for gigantism on islands.

  17. Statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Rohatgi, Vijay K

    2003-01-01

    Unified treatment of probability and statistics examines and analyzes the relationship between the two fields, exploring inferential issues. Numerous problems, examples, and diagrams--some with solutions--plus clear-cut, highlighted summaries of results. Advanced undergraduate to graduate level. Contents: 1. Introduction. 2. Probability Model. 3. Probability Distributions. 4. Introduction to Statistical Inference. 5. More on Mathematical Expectation. 6. Some Discrete Models. 7. Some Continuous Models. 8. Functions of Random Variables and Random Vectors. 9. Large-Sample Theory. 10. General Meth

  18. Spatial and temporal controls of atoll island inundation: implications for urbanized atolls in the Marshall Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, M.; Becker, J. M.; Merrifield, M. A.

    2012-12-01

    Atoll islands are highly vulnerable to a range of inundation hazards. The impacts of such hazards are expected to be magnified as a result of continued sea-level rise. Both recent and historic inundation events provide unique insights into the requisite conditions necessary to initiate island inundation. A number of recent and historic inundation events are presented in order to examine the oceanographic and meteorological conditions driving inundation of a densely populated, urbanized atoll in the central Pacific. Analysis of inundation events suggests that a number of key drivers contribute to the spatial and temporal extent of island inundation, with unique degrees of predictability and resultant impact signatures apparent on island geomorphology and local anthropogenic activities. Results indicate three distinct drivers of inundation hazards exist. Firstly, tropical storms and typhoons elevate sea level through inverse barometric setup, wind setup and a range of wave driven processes and have caused considerable impact on atolls within the Marshall Islands. Secondly, super-elevated sea level conditions resulting from the combination of seasonal high tides and quasi-cyclical La Nina conditions drive inundation of low-lying lagoon facing coastal areas. Thirdly, long period swell conditions, typically generated by distant storms, can elevate reef-flat water levels through wave setup and infragravity wave oscillations. Such wave conditions can over wash the ocean-facing island ridge, often inundating large sections of the island. Reef-flat wave conditions are tidally modulated, with inundation events typically occurring around high tide. However, the two most recent destructive swell-driven inundation events have occurred while tide levels were significantly lower than spring tide levels, suggesting high water levels are not a necessary prerequisite for wave-driven inundation. The different modes of inundation are discussed and grounded within recent and historic

  19. Chronic Liver Disease and Asian Americans/Pacific Islanders

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Cancer Asian/Pacific Islander Women Non-Hispanic White Women Asian/Pacific Islander/ Non-Hispanic White Ratio All Sites ... Cancer Asian/Pacific Islander Women Non-Hispanic White Women Asian/Pacific Islander/ Non-Hispanic White Ratio Liver & IBD* ...

  20. The Impact of Contextual Clue Selection on Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leila Barati

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Linguistic information can be conveyed in the form of speech and written text, but it is the content of the message that is ultimately essential for higher-level processes in language comprehension, such as making inferences and associations between text information and knowledge about the world. Linguistically, inference is the shovel that allows receivers to dig meaning out from the text with selecting different embedded contextual clues. Naturally, people with different world experiences infer similar contextual situations differently. Lack of contextual knowledge of the target language can present an obstacle to comprehension (Anderson & Lynch, 2003. This paper tries to investigate how true contextual clue selection from the text can influence listener’s inference. In the present study 60 male and female teenagers (13-19 and 60 male and female young adults (20-26 were selected randomly based on Oxford Placement Test (OPT. During the study two fiction and two non-fiction passages were read to the participants in the experimental and control groups respectively and they were given scores according to Lexile’s Score (LS[1] based on their correct inference and logical thinking ability. In general the results show that participants’ clue selection based on their personal schematic references and background knowledge differ between teenagers and young adults and influence inference and listening comprehension. [1]- This is a framework for reading and listening which matches the appropriate score to each text based on degree of difficulty of text and each text was given a Lexile score from zero to four.

  1. Solid waste management on small islands. The case of Green Island, Taiwan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, M.C.; Ruijs, A.; Wesseler, J. [Environmental Economics and Natural Resources Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 8130, 6700 EW Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2005-09-01

    Municipalities of small islands have limited capacities for waste disposal. In the case of Green Island, Taiwan, continuing with business as usual would only allow the disposal of waste on the island for another 8 years. Three alternatives for solid waste management (SWM) are compared. The cost-effective solution is the one, which is the most expensive in the short run: continuing business as usual and introducing an incineration plant in the year 2010. The results indicate furthermore that deviations from optimal timing of investment only slightly change average annual costs. In the long run, the municipality can hardly avoid transporting waste to the mainland. By investing in an incineration plant, they can buy additional time to investigate alternative SWM strategies.

  2. Colonization of the Scottish islands via long-distance Neolithic transport of red deer (Cervus elaphus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanton, David W G; Mulville, Jacqueline A; Bruford, Michael W

    2016-04-13

    Red deer (Cervus elaphus) have played a key role in human societies throughout history, with important cultural significance and as a source of food and materials. This relationship can be traced back to the earliest human cultures and continues to the present day. Humans are thought to be responsible for the movement of a considerable number of deer throughout history, although the majority of these movements are poorly described or understood. Studying such translocations allows us to better understand ancient human-wildlife interactions, and in the case of island colonizations, informs us about ancient human maritime practices. This study uses DNA sequences to characterise red deer genetic diversity across the Scottish islands (Inner and Outer Hebrides and Orkney) and mainland using ancient deer samples, and attempts to infer historical colonization events. We show that deer from the Outer Hebrides and Orkney are unlikely to have originated from mainland Scotland, implying that humans introduced red deer from a greater distance. Our results are also inconsistent with an origin from Ireland or Norway, suggesting long-distance maritime travel by Neolithic people to the outer Scottish Isles from an unknown source. Common haplotypes and low genetic differentiation between the Outer Hebrides and Orkney imply common ancestry and/or gene flow across these islands. Close genetic proximity between the Inner Hebrides and Ireland, however, corroborates previous studies identifying mainland Britain as a source for red deer introductions into Ireland. This study provides important information on the processes that led to the current distribution of the largest surviving indigenous land mammal in the British Isles. © 2016 The Authors.

  3. Alien dominance of the parasitoid wasp community along an elevation gradient on Hawai'i Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peck, R.W.; Banko, P.C.; Schwarzfeld, M.; Euaparadorn, M.; Brinck, K.W.

    2008-01-01

    Through intentional and accidental introduction, more than 100 species of alien Ichneumonidae and Braconidae (Hymenoptera) have become established in the Hawaiian Islands. The extent to which these parasitoid wasps have penetrated native wet forests was investigated over a 1,765 m elevation gradient on windward Hawai'i Island. For >1 year, malaise traps were used to continuously monitor parasitoid abundance and species richness in nine sites over three elevations. A total of 18,996 individuals from 16 subfamilies were collected. Overall, the fauna was dominated by aliens, with 44 of 58 species foreign to the Hawaiian Islands. Ichneumonidae was dominant over Braconidae in terms of both diversity and abundance, comprising 67.5% of individuals and 69.0% of species collected. Parasitoid abundance and species richness varied significantly with elevation: abundance was greater at mid and high elevations compared to low elevation while species richness increased with increasing elevation, with all three elevations differing significantly from each other. Nine species purposely introduced to control pest insects were found, but one braconid, Meteorus laphygmae, comprised 98.0% of this assemblage, or 28.3% of the entire fauna. Endemic species, primarily within the genera Spolas and Enicospilus, were collected almost exclusively at mid- and high-elevation sites, where they made up 22.1% and 36.0% of the total catch, respectively. Overall, 75.9% of species and 96.0% of individuals are inferred to parasitize Lepidoptera larvae and pupae. Our results support previous data indicating that alien parasitoids have deeply penetrated native forest habitats and may have substantial impacts on Hawaiian ecosystems. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  4. Inferring Demographic History Using Two-Locus Statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragsdale, Aaron P; Gutenkunst, Ryan N

    2017-06-01

    Population demographic history may be learned from contemporary genetic variation data. Methods based on aggregating the statistics of many single loci into an allele frequency spectrum (AFS) have proven powerful, but such methods ignore potentially informative patterns of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between neighboring loci. To leverage such patterns, we developed a composite-likelihood framework for inferring demographic history from aggregated statistics of pairs of loci. Using this framework, we show that two-locus statistics are more sensitive to demographic history than single-locus statistics such as the AFS. In particular, two-locus statistics escape the notorious confounding of depth and duration of a bottleneck, and they provide a means to estimate effective population size based on the recombination rather than mutation rate. We applied our approach to a Zambian population of Drosophila melanogaster Notably, using both single- and two-locus statistics, we inferred a substantially lower ancestral effective population size than previous works and did not infer a bottleneck history. Together, our results demonstrate the broad potential for two-locus statistics to enable powerful population genetic inference. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

  5. Statistical Inference on the Canadian Middle Class

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Russell Davidson

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Conventional wisdom says that the middle classes in many developed countries have recently suffered losses, in terms of both the share of the total population belonging to the middle class, and also their share in total income. Here, distribution-free methods are developed for inference on these shares, by means of deriving expressions for their asymptotic variances of sample estimates, and the covariance of the estimates. Asymptotic inference can be undertaken based on asymptotic normality. Bootstrap inference can be expected to be more reliable, and appropriate bootstrap procedures are proposed. As an illustration, samples of individual earnings drawn from Canadian census data are used to test various hypotheses about the middle-class shares, and confidence intervals for them are computed. It is found that, for the earlier censuses, sample sizes are large enough for asymptotic and bootstrap inference to be almost identical, but that, in the twenty-first century, the bootstrap fails on account of a strange phenomenon whereby many presumably different incomes in the data are rounded to one and the same value. Another difference between the centuries is the appearance of heavy right-hand tails in the income distributions of both men and women.

  6. The importance of learning when making inferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorg Rieskamp

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The assumption that people possess a repertoire of strategies to solve the inference problems they face has been made repeatedly. The experimental findings of two previous studies on strategy selection are reexamined from a learning perspective, which argues that people learn to select strategies for making probabilistic inferences. This learning process is modeled with the strategy selection learning (SSL theory, which assumes that people develop subjective expectancies for the strategies they have. They select strategies proportional to their expectancies, which are updated on the basis of experience. For the study by Newell, Weston, and Shanks (2003 it can be shown that people did not anticipate the success of a strategy from the beginning of the experiment. Instead, the behavior observed at the end of the experiment was the result of a learning process that can be described by the SSL theory. For the second study, by Br"oder and Schiffer (2006, the SSL theory is able to provide an explanation for why participants only slowly adapted to new environments in a dynamic inference situation. The reanalysis of the previous studies illustrates the importance of learning for probabilistic inferences.

  7. CRED Gridded Bathymetry near Lisianski Island and Pioneer Bank (100-002), Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — File 100-002b is a 60-m ASCII grid of depth data collected near Lisianski Island and Pioneer Bank in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands as of May 2003. This grid has...

  8. Revisiting the Metaphor of the Island: Challenging "World Culture" from an Island Misunderstood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rappleye, Jeremy

    2015-01-01

    This article revisits the newly "discovered" island that world culture theorists have repeatedly utilised to explain their theoretical stance, conceptual preferences and methodological approach. Yet, it seeks to (re)connect world culture with the real world by replacing their imagined atoll with a real one--the island-nation of Japan. In…

  9. A new species of iguana Brachylophus Cuvier 1829 (Sauria: Iguania: Iguanidae) from Gau Island, Fiji Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Robert N; Niukula, Jone; Watling, Dick; Harlow, Peter S

    2017-06-06

    The south Pacific iguanas (Brachylophus) currently have three recognized living species in Fiji.  Recent surveys have uncovered more specific variation (morphological and genetic) within the genus and have better defined the geographic ranges of the named species.  One of these recent discoveries is a strikingly different iguana from all other island populations in Fiji which is restricted to Gau Island of the Lomaiviti Province.  Gau is the fifth largest island in Fiji and maintains excellent upland forests in the higher elevations.  We describe this population from Gau Island as a new species, Brachylophus gau sp. nov., in recognition of its type locality.

  10. A new species of iguana Brachylophus Cuvier 1829 (Sauria: Iguania: Iguanidae) from Gau Island, Fiji Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Robert N.; Niukula, Jone; Watling, Dick; Harlow, Peter S.

    2017-01-01

    The south Pacific iguanas (Brachylophus) currently have three recognized living species in Fiji.  Recent surveys have uncovered more specific variation (morphological and genetic) within the genus and have better defined the geographic ranges of the named species.  One of these recent discoveries is a strikingly different iguana from all other island populations in Fiji which is restricted to Gau Island of the Lomaiviti Province.  Gau is the fifth largest island in Fiji and maintains excellent upland forests in the higher elevations.  We describe this population from Gau Island as a new species, Brachylophus gau sp. nov., in recognition of its type locality.

  11. Island forming processes in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, T. S.; Humphries, M. S.; Mahomed, I.; Le Roux, P.; Verhagen, B. Th.

    2012-12-01

    The Okavango Delta in Botswana is a large (40,000 km2) alluvial fan that is characterised by the presence of numerous tree-covered islands. Thought to originate from the mound-building activities of termites or through fluvial processes associated with development of scroll bars and inverted channels, islands have been shown to play an important role in the structure and functioning of the Delta through the creation of habitat diversity, focusing of nutrients, and disposal of toxic salts. This study investigates the processes responsible for the maintenance and growth of two such islands in the seasonal swamps. Transpiration by vegetation is shown to result in substantial increases in groundwater salinity beneath the islands, contributing to their growth through chemical precipitation. Detailed chemical analyses revealed that the precipitation of magnesian calcite and silica within the island soils contributes 30-40% of the total island volume. Isotopic analyses of carbonate samples show that vegetation plays an important role in providing carbon for carbonate precipitation. Variations in δ13C carbonate values appear to reflect the relative proportion of C3 to C4 plants on the island, with C4 species becoming more dominant toward island centres in response to increases in groundwater salinity. The study suggests that continued island growth is also related to the deposition of aerosols and the accumulation of dust preferentially on islands and possibly to ongoing termite activity. Tall trees that characterise the island margins trap dust carried from the floodplains, resulting particularly in the lateral growth of islands. Islands in the Okavango are considered to be the product of long-term aggradation processes, with the two islands studied estimated to be in the order of tens of thousands of years old.

  12. Bayesian inference of substrate properties from film behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aggarwal, R; Demkowicz, M J; Marzouk, Y M

    2015-01-01

    We demonstrate that by observing the behavior of a film deposited on a substrate, certain features of the substrate may be inferred with quantified uncertainty using Bayesian methods. We carry out this demonstration on an illustrative film/substrate model where the substrate is a Gaussian random field and the film is a two-component mixture that obeys the Cahn–Hilliard equation. We construct a stochastic reduced order model to describe the film/substrate interaction and use it to infer substrate properties from film behavior. This quantitative inference strategy may be adapted to other film/substrate systems. (paper)

  13. Brain Imaging, Forward Inference, and Theories of Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heit, Evan

    2015-01-01

    This review focuses on the issue of how neuroimaging studies address theoretical accounts of reasoning, through the lens of the method of forward inference (Henson, 2005, 2006). After theories of deductive and inductive reasoning are briefly presented, the method of forward inference for distinguishing between psychological theories based on brain imaging evidence is critically reviewed. Brain imaging studies of reasoning, comparing deductive and inductive arguments, comparing meaningful versus non-meaningful material, investigating hemispheric localization, and comparing conditional and relational arguments, are assessed in light of the method of forward inference. Finally, conclusions are drawn with regard to future research opportunities. PMID:25620926

  14. Brain imaging, forward inference, and theories of reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heit, Evan

    2014-01-01

    This review focuses on the issue of how neuroimaging studies address theoretical accounts of reasoning, through the lens of the method of forward inference (Henson, 2005, 2006). After theories of deductive and inductive reasoning are briefly presented, the method of forward inference for distinguishing between psychological theories based on brain imaging evidence is critically reviewed. Brain imaging studies of reasoning, comparing deductive and inductive arguments, comparing meaningful versus non-meaningful material, investigating hemispheric localization, and comparing conditional and relational arguments, are assessed in light of the method of forward inference. Finally, conclusions are drawn with regard to future research opportunities.

  15. Data-driven inference for the spatial scan statistic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duczmal Luiz H

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic for aggregated area maps searches for clusters of cases without specifying their size (number of areas or geographic location in advance. Their statistical significance is tested while adjusting for the multiple testing inherent in such a procedure. However, as is shown in this work, this adjustment is not done in an even manner for all possible cluster sizes. Results A modification is proposed to the usual inference test of the spatial scan statistic, incorporating additional information about the size of the most likely cluster found. A new interpretation of the results of the spatial scan statistic is done, posing a modified inference question: what is the probability that the null hypothesis is rejected for the original observed cases map with a most likely cluster of size k, taking into account only those most likely clusters of size k found under null hypothesis for comparison? This question is especially important when the p-value computed by the usual inference process is near the alpha significance level, regarding the correctness of the decision based in this inference. Conclusions A practical procedure is provided to make more accurate inferences about the most likely cluster found by the spatial scan statistic.

  16. Elastic energies of coherent germanium islands on silicon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanderbilt, D.; Wickham, L.K.

    1991-01-01

    Motivated by recent observations of coherent Ge island formation during growth of Ge on Si (100), the authors of this paper have carried out a theoretical study of the elastic energies associated with the evolution of a uniform strained overlayer as it segregates into coherent islands. In the context of a two-dimensional model, the authors have explored the conditions under which coherent islands may be energetically favored over both uniform epitaxial films and dislocated islands. The authors find that if the interface energy (for dislocated islands) is more than about 15% of the surface energy, then there is a range of island sizes for which the coherent island structure is preferred

  17. Estimation of isolation times of the island species in the Drosophila simulans complex from multilocus DNA sequence data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shannon R McDermott

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The Drosophila simulans species complex continues to serve as an important model system for the study of new species formation. The complex is comprised of the cosmopolitan species, D. simulans, and two island endemics, D. mauritiana and D. sechellia. A substantial amount of effort has gone into reconstructing the natural history of the complex, in part to infer the context in which functional divergence among the species has arisen. In this regard, a key parameter to be estimated is the initial isolation time (t of each island species. Loci in regions of low recombination have lower divergence within the complex than do other loci, yet divergence from D. melanogaster is similar for both classes. This might reflect gene flow of the low-recombination loci subsequent to initial isolation, but it might also reflect differential effects of changing population size on the two recombination classes of loci when the low-recombination loci are subject to genetic hitchhiking or pseudohitchhikingNew DNA sequence variation data for 17 loci corroborate the prior observation from 13 loci that DNA sequence divergence is reduced in genes of low recombination. Two models are presented to estimate t and other relevant parameters (substitution rate correction factors in lineages leading to the island species and, in the case of the 4-parameter model, the ratio of ancestral to extant effective population size from the multilocus DNA sequence data.In general, it appears that both island species were isolated at about the same time, here estimated at approximately 250,000 years ago. It also appears that the difference in divergence patterns of genes in regions of low and higher recombination can be reconciled by allowing a modestly larger effective population size for the ancestral population than for extant D. simulans.

  18. Shape and coarsening dynamics of strained islands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schifani, Guido; Frisch, Thomas; Argentina, Mederic

    2016-01-01

    and numerically the formation of an equilibrium island using a two-dimensional continuous model. We have found that these equilibrium island-like solutions have a maximum height h_{0} and they sit on top of a flat wetting layer with a thickness h_{w}. We then consider two islands, and we report that they undergo...... and leads to the shrinkage of the smallest island. Once its height becomes smaller than a minimal equilibrium height h_{0}^{*}, its mass spreads over the entire system. Our results pave the way for a future analysis of coarsening of an assembly of islands....

  19. Review of islanding detection methods for distributed generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Zhe; Mahat, Pukar; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of power system islanding and islanding detection techniques. Islanding detection techniques, for a distribution system with distributed generation (DG), can broadly be divided into remote and local techniques. A remote islanding detection technique is associated...

  20. Effect of island shape on dielectrophoretic assembly of metal nanoparticle chains in a conductive-island-based microelectrode system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding, Haitao; Shao, Jinyou; Ding, Yucheng; Liu, Weiyu; Li, Xiangming; Tian, Hongmiao; Zhou, Yaopei

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Conductive island shape influences the dynamic process occurring in DEP assembly of 10 nm gold nanoparticles in a conductive-island-based microelectrode system. • The DEP-assembled nanoparticle wires form a straighter conduction path with the increase in the geometric angle of conductive island tip. • The different island shapes distort the DEP force distribution and increase the local electrothermally induced fluid flow to different extents, which is important for the morphology and electrical conductance quality of the DEP-assembled metal nanoparticle chains. - Abstract: The electrical conduction quality of an electric circuit connection formed by dielectrophoretic (DEP)-assembled metal nanoparticle wires between small conductive elements plays a significant role in electronic devices. One of the major challenges for improving the electrical conductance of nanowires is optimizing their geometric morphology. So far, the electrical conduction quality has been enhanced by optimizing the AC frequency and conductivity of nanoparticle suspensions. Herein, the effect of the conductive island shapes on the dynamic process occurring in a DEP assembly of 10 nm gold nanoparticles was investigated in a conductive-island-based microelectrode system. The nanoparticle wires between the microelectrodes were assembled in situ from colloidal suspensions. The wires were grown in a much straighter route by increasing the geometric angle of the conductive-island tip. To validate the experiments, the effects of mutual DEP interactions and electrothermally induced fluid flow on the dynamic behavior of particle motion for different island geometric configurations in the conductive-island-based microelectrode system were determined by numerical simulations. The simulation results are consistent with those of experiments. This indicates that different conductive island shapes change the distribution of DEP force and increase the electrothermally induced fluid flow to

  1. Statistical inference an integrated approach

    CERN Document Server

    Migon, Helio S; Louzada, Francisco

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Information The concept of probability Assessing subjective probabilities An example Linear algebra and probability Notation Outline of the bookElements of Inference Common statistical modelsLikelihood-based functions Bayes theorem Exchangeability Sufficiency and exponential family Parameter elimination Prior Distribution Entirely subjective specification Specification through functional forms Conjugacy with the exponential family Non-informative priors Hierarchical priors Estimation Introduction to decision theoryBayesian point estimation Classical point estimation Empirical Bayes estimation Comparison of estimators Interval estimation Estimation in the Normal model Approximating Methods The general problem of inference Optimization techniquesAsymptotic theory Other analytical approximations Numerical integration methods Simulation methods Hypothesis Testing Introduction Classical hypothesis testingBayesian hypothesis testing Hypothesis testing and confidence intervalsAsymptotic tests Prediction...

  2. Statistical learning and selective inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Jonathan; Tibshirani, Robert J

    2015-06-23

    We describe the problem of "selective inference." This addresses the following challenge: Having mined a set of data to find potential associations, how do we properly assess the strength of these associations? The fact that we have "cherry-picked"--searched for the strongest associations--means that we must set a higher bar for declaring significant the associations that we see. This challenge becomes more important in the era of big data and complex statistical modeling. The cherry tree (dataset) can be very large and the tools for cherry picking (statistical learning methods) are now very sophisticated. We describe some recent new developments in selective inference and illustrate their use in forward stepwise regression, the lasso, and principal components analysis.

  3. Environmental assessment for the resettlement of Eneu Island on Bikini Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maragos, J.E.; Agegian, Catherine

    1986-01-01

    This environmental assessment evaluates various alternatives to return the Bikini people to their homeland on Bikini Atoll. Eneu Island was spared the heavy nuclear contamination that rendered Bikini Island, the largest and main inhabitable island on the atoll, presently unsuitable for resettlement. The economic, social, technical and environmental consequences of all alternatives were compared, and alternative sites, purposes and scales for resettlement were included in the analysis. This environmental assessment explores these alternatives in detail and concludes that the resettlement of Eneu Island by some of the Bikini people at this time will not result in significant adverse effects to the environment nor will it foreclose any other full scale resettlement option involving the cleanup of Bikini Atoll. In addition, it concludes that the resettlement of Eneu can be accomplished independently from the planned cleanup and resettlement of Bikini Island. Plans and combination of plans involving the early resettlement of Eneu are fully feasible and implementable at this time. (author)

  4. Environmental assessment for the resettlement of Eneu Island on Bikini Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maragos, J E [Environmental Resources Section, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Pacific Ocean Division, HI (United States); Agegian, Catherine [University of Hawaii, Department of Oceanography, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    1986-07-01

    This environmental assessment evaluates various alternatives to return the Bikini people to their homeland on Bikini Atoll. Eneu Island was spared the heavy nuclear contamination that rendered Bikini Island, the largest and main inhabitable island on the atoll, presently unsuitable for resettlement. The economic, social, technical and environmental consequences of all alternatives were compared, and alternative sites, purposes and scales for resettlement were included in the analysis. This environmental assessment explores these alternatives in detail and concludes that the resettlement of Eneu Island by some of the Bikini people at this time will not result in significant adverse effects to the environment nor will it foreclose any other full scale resettlement option involving the cleanup of Bikini Atoll. In addition, it concludes that the resettlement of Eneu can be accomplished independently from the planned cleanup and resettlement of Bikini Island. Plans and combination of plans involving the early resettlement of Eneu are fully feasible and implementable at this time. (author)

  5. Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becerril, Laura; Martí, Joan; Bartolini, Stefania; Geyer, Adelina

    2017-07-01

    Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primary importance for land-use planning and defining emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. A definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (> 1.5 km3 DRE) and longest (6 years) eruption, the Timanfaya eruption (1730-1736), on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years). This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment or hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable eruptive scenarios.

  6. Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of a Coastal Island Using Geospatial Techniques: A Case in Hatiya Island, Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramjan, S.; Mahmud, M. S.; Hossain, M. A.; Hasan, M.; Ashrafi, Z. M.

    2016-12-01

    Bangladesh is recognized for its high vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR). SLR directly and indirectly (by altering morphology of river estuary) accelerates erosion processes, washes out the loose materials of the coast and coastal islands. Hatiya, highly populated coastal island, located in Meghna river estuary is under severe threat of coastal erosion, which has not been quantified yet. The accurate mapping of the shoreline and coastal changes are very important for adopting conservation measures e.g. protection of human life, property and the natural environment. The objectives of the present study are to use remote sensing and Geographical Information System techniques to evaluate spatial and temporal changes in the shoreline and coastal land area of the Hatiya Island between the year of 1985 and 2016 from multi-temporal satellite images, i.e. assessing shifting of the shoreline position through digital shoreline analysis besides the erosion-accretion measurements. Study reveals that about 67 square kilometer areas has been lost between 1985 and 2016 which was about 17 percent of original area (1985). Erosion mainly took place in northern, north-western banks of the island. In these areas, the landward movement and rate of the shoreline were higher with a highest value of the net shoreline movement (NSM) around 6.2 km. Erosion rate is significant in exposed part of the island where tidal water pressure, shoreline configuration, loose bank materials and steep slope were observed. However, the accretion was noticed in recent years (2010-2016) in southern part of the island where slopes were gentle, perhaps due to backwash sediment deposition. As erosion process is prominent in this island, significant amounnt of usable land was lost. Therefore, local livelihood pattern has changed that has noticable effect on local economy. By quantifying the erosion-accretion rate, livelihood planning can be initiated in climatically threated vulnerable islands.

  7. Rising sea levels and small island states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leatherman, S.P.

    1994-01-01

    A review is given of the problems small island nations face with respect to sea level rise caused by global warming. Many small island nations are very vulnerable to sea level rise. Particularly at risk are coral reef atolls, which are generally quite small, lie within three metres of current sea levels, and have no land at higher elevations to relocate populations and economic activity. Volcanic islands in the Pacific have high ground, but it is largely rugged, high relief and soil-poor. The most vulnerable islands are those that consist entirely of atolls and reef islands, such as Kirabai, Maldives, Tokelau and Tuvalu. Small island states, which by themselves have little power or influence in world affairs, have banded together to form the Strategic Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). This alliance had grown to include 42 states by the time of the 1992 U.N. Earth Summit. Although the greenhouse effect is mainly caused by industrial nations, developing countries will suffer the most from it. Choices of response strategy will depend on environmental, economic and social factors. Most small island nations do not have the resources to fight sea level rise in the way that the Dutch have. Retreat can occur as a gradual process or as catastrophic abandonment. Prohibiting construction close to the water's edge is a good approach. Sea level histories for each island state should be compiled and updated, island geomorphology and settlement patterns should be surveyed to determine risk areas, storm regimes should be determined, and information on coastal impacts of sea level rise should be disseminated to the public

  8. Vicia vulcanorum (Fabaceae a new species from the island of Lanzarote (Canary Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morales-Mateos, J. B.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Vicia vulcanorum J. Gil & M. L. Gil (Fabaceae, a new species of subg. Cracca (Dumort. Peterm., sect. Cracca Dumort. is described and illustrated from the island of Lanzarote, Canary Islands, north-west of Africa. It is related to and compared with Vicia cirrhosa C. Sm. ex Webb & Berthel. and Vicia filicaulis Webb & Berthel., two endemic species from the western and central group of the Canary Islands, and Vicia ferreirensis Goyder, an endemic species from Porto Santo Island, Madeira Archipelago.Se describe e ilustra Vicia vulcanorum J. Gil & M. L. Gil (Fabaceae, una nueva especie y endemismo de la isla de Lanzarote, Islas Canarias, perteneciente al subg. Cracca (Dumort. Peterm., sect. Cracca Dumort. Se encuentra relacionada y es comparada con Vicia cirrhosa C. Sm. ex Webb & Berthel. y Vicia filicaulis Webb & Berthel., especies endémicas de las islas centrales y occidentales del archipiélago canario, y con Vicia ferreirensis Goyder, especie endémica de la isla de Porto Santo, en el archipiélago de Madeira.

  9. Geology of the Elephanta Island fault zone, western Indian rifted margin, and its significance for understanding the Panvel flexure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samant, Hrishikesh; Pundalik, Ashwin; D'souza, Joseph; Sheth, Hetu; Lobo, Keegan Carmo; D'souza, Kyle; Patel, Vanit

    2017-02-01

    The Panvel flexure is a 150-km long tectonic structure, comprising prominently seaward-dipping Deccan flood basalts, on the western Indian rifted margin. Given the active tectonic faulting beneath the Panvel flexure zone inferred from microseismicity, better structural understanding of the region is needed. The geology of Elephanta Island in the Mumbai harbour, famous for the ca. mid-6th century A.D. Hindu rock-cut caves in Deccan basalt (a UNESCO World Heritage site) is poorly known. We describe a previously unreported but well-exposed fault zone on Elephanta Island, consisting of two large faults dipping steeply east-southeast and producing easterly downthrows. Well-developed slickensides and structural measurements indicate oblique slip on both faults. The Elephanta Island fault zone may be the northern extension of the Alibag-Uran fault zone previously described. This and two other known regional faults (Nhava-Sheva and Belpada faults) indicate a progressively eastward step-faulted structure of the Panvel flexure, with the important result that the individual movements were not simply downdip but also oblique-slip and locally even rotational (as at Uran). An interesting problem is the normal faulting, block tectonics and rifting of this region of the crust for which seismological data indicate a normal thickness (up to 41.3 km). A model of asymmetric rifting by simple shear may explain this observation and the consistently landward dips of the rifted margin faults.

  10. Neoclassical islands on COMPASS-D

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gates, D.A.; Lloyd, B.; Morris, A.W.; McArdle, G.; O'Brien, M.R.; Valovic, M.; Warrick, C.D.; Wilson, H.R.

    1997-01-01

    Neoclassical magnetic islands are observed to limit the achievable β in COMPASS-D low collisionality single null divertor tokamak plasmas with ITER-like geometry (R 0 = 0.56 m, B 0 1.2 T, I p = 120-180 kA, κ = 1.6, ε = 0.3). The limiting β is typically well below that expected from ideal instabilities with maximum βN in the range of 1.6 to 2.1. The plasma is heated with up to 1.8 MW of 60 GHz electron cyclotron resonance heating (ECRH) at the second harmonic with X mode polarization. The time history of the measured island width is compared with the predictions of neoclassical tearing mode theory, with good agreement between theory and experiment. The measured islands have a threshold width below which the mode will not grow. The density scaling of the point of onset of the measured instabilities is compared with two theories that predict a threshold island width for the onset of neoclassical tearing modes. Applied resonant helical error fields are used to induce islands in collisionality regimes wherein the neoclassical islands do not occur naturally, allowing the study of the behaviour of neoclassical tearing modes in this regime. The critical β for the onset of neoclassical tearing modes is seen to be ∼3 times higher in the naturally stable region. This observation is compared with the predictions of both threshold theories. A simple expression for the q scaling of the maximum achievable β N in the presence of neoclassical tearing modes is derived on the basis of the assumption of a maximum allowable island width. The predicted q scaling of this β limit is compared with data from a q scan, and the results are in good agreement. (author)

  11. Immigration and the competitiveness of an island tourism destination: a knowledge-based reputation analysis of Lanzarote, Canary Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Desiderio Juan García-Almeida

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper sheds light on the relationship between immigration and tourism competitiveness on the island of Lanzarote through the analysis of reputation from the demand perspective. The tourists’ knowledge about news on immigration from a destination, their contact with immigrants in the area, and the influence of the presence of immigrants there are studied, as all these factors can have a major impact on island competitiveness in tourism. The empirical work has been conducted with a survey of tourists on Lanzarote, Canary Islands, Spain. A total of 359 valid questionnaires were obtained. Results show a relatively low impact and retention of immigration news about the destination, and a low perceived contact with non-European immigrants when visiting the island. Moreover, tourists tend to recognize the positive value created by immigrants on the island, though some negative effects are also indicated. Finally, immigration seems to have a positive impact on the tourist’s global satisfaction and loyalty to the island destination.

  12. Backscatter 0.5m TIFF Mosaic of St. Croix (Buck Island), US Virgin Islands, 2004

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This image represents a 0.5 meter resolution backscatter mosaic of the north shore of Buck Island, St. Croix, US Virgin Islands. NOAA's NOS/NCCOS/CCMA Biogeography...

  13. Object-Oriented Type Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwartzbach, Michael Ignatieff; Palsberg, Jens

    1991-01-01

    We present a new approach to inferring types in untyped object-oriented programs with inheritance, assignments, and late binding. It guarantees that all messages are understood, annotates the program with type information, allows polymorphic methods, and can be used as the basis of an op...

  14. Checklist of the ants (Hymenoptera, Formicidae of the Solomon Islands and a new survey of Makira Island

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eli Sarnat

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The intent of this paper is to facilitate future research of the Solomon Islands ant fauna by providing the first comprehensively researched species inventory in over 75 years. The species list presented here includes the names of all ant species recorded from the islands that are available in the literature together with specimen records from several museum collections and new records from our 2008 Makira field expedition. All the names of described species presented are valid in accordance with the most recent Formicidae classification. In total, the checklist is composed of 237 species and subspecies (including 30 morphospecies in 59 genera representing nine subfamilies. We report that the recent field expedition added 67 new species records to Makira and 28 new species records to the Solomon Islands. Our research recovered species occurrence records for 32 individual islands and five island groups. The five islands with the highest number of recorded species are: Makira (142 spp., Guadalcanal (107 spp., Malaita (70 spp., Santa Isabel (68 spp., and Rennell (66 spp.. Based on our results, we discuss the taxonomic composition of the archipelago’s ant fauna, which islands are most in need of additional sampling, and the importance of establishing biodiversity baselines before environmental threats such as the invasive ant Wasmannia auropunctata cause irrevocable harm to the native biodiversity.

  15. Reduction of Islands in Full-pressure Stellarator Equilibria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, S.R.; Monticello, D.A.; Reiman, A.H.

    2001-01-01

    The control of magnetic islands is a crucial issue in designing Stellarators. Islands are associated with resonant radial magnetic fields at rational rotational-transform surfaces and can lead to chaos and poor plasma confinement. In this article, we show that variations in the resonant fields of a full-pressure stellarator equilibrium can be related to variations in the boundary via a coupling matrix, and inversion of this matrix determines a boundary modification for which the island content is significantly reduced. The numerical procedure is described and the results of island optimization are presented. Equilibria with islands are computed using the Princeton Iterative Equilibrium Solver, and resonant radial fields are calculated via construction of quadratic-flux-minimizing surfaces. A design candidate for the National Compact Stellarator Experiment [Phys. Plasmas 8, 2001], which has a large island, is used to illustrate the technique. Small variations in the boundary shape are used to reduce island size and to reverse the phase of a major island chain

  16. 36 CFR 13.1178 - Closed waters, islands and other areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... southeast of Flapjack Island; or Eider Island; or Boulder Island; or Geikie Rock; or Lone Island; or the... islands) of the easternmost point of Russell Island; or Graves Rocks (on the outer coast); or Cormorant... and Preserve Vessel Operating Restrictions § 13.1178 Closed waters, islands and other areas. The...

  17. Functional and phylogenetic structure of island bird communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Si, Xingfeng; Cadotte, Marc W; Zeng, Di; Baselga, Andrés; Zhao, Yuhao; Li, Jiaqi; Wu, Yiru; Wang, Siyu; Ding, Ping

    2017-05-01

    Biodiversity change in anthropogenically transformed habitats is often nonrandom, yet the nature and importance of the different mechanisms shaping community structure are unclear. Here, we extend the classic Theory of Island Biogeography (TIB) to account for nonrandom processes by incorporating species traits and phylogenetic relationships into a study of faunal relaxation following habitat loss and fragmentation. Two possible mechanisms can create nonrandom community patterns on fragment islands. First, small and isolated islands might consist of similar or closely related species because they are environmentally homogeneous or select for certain shared traits, such as dispersal ability. Alternatively, communities on small islands might contain more dissimilar or distantly related species than on large islands because limited space and resource availability result in greater competitive exclusion among species with high niche overlap. Breeding birds were surveyed on 36 islands and two mainland sites annually from 2010 to 2014 in the Thousand Island Lake region, China. We assessed community structure of breeding birds on these subtropical land-bridge islands by integrating species' trait and evolutionary distances. We additionally analysed habitat heterogeneity and variance in size ratios to distinguish biotic and abiotic processes of community assembly. Results showed that functional-phylogenetic diversity increased with island area, and decreased with isolation. Bird communities on the mainland were more diverse and generally less clustered than island bird communities and not different than randomly assembled communities. Bird communities on islands tend to be functionally similar and phylogenetically clustered, especially on small and isolated islands. The nonrandom decline in species diversity and change in bird community structure with island area and isolation, along with the relatively homogeneous habitats on small islands, support the environmental

  18. The Probabilistic Convolution Tree: Efficient Exact Bayesian Inference for Faster LC-MS/MS Protein Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serang, Oliver

    2014-01-01

    Exact Bayesian inference can sometimes be performed efficiently for special cases where a function has commutative and associative symmetry of its inputs (called “causal independence”). For this reason, it is desirable to exploit such symmetry on big data sets. Here we present a method to exploit a general form of this symmetry on probabilistic adder nodes by transforming those probabilistic adder nodes into a probabilistic convolution tree with which dynamic programming computes exact probabilities. A substantial speedup is demonstrated using an illustration example that can arise when identifying splice forms with bottom-up mass spectrometry-based proteomics. On this example, even state-of-the-art exact inference algorithms require a runtime more than exponential in the number of splice forms considered. By using the probabilistic convolution tree, we reduce the runtime to and the space to where is the number of variables joined by an additive or cardinal operator. This approach, which can also be used with junction tree inference, is applicable to graphs with arbitrary dependency on counting variables or cardinalities and can be used on diverse problems and fields like forward error correcting codes, elemental decomposition, and spectral demixing. The approach also trivially generalizes to multiple dimensions. PMID:24626234

  19. Reward inference by primate prefrontal and striatal neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Xiaochuan; Fan, Hongwei; Sawa, Kosuke; Tsuda, Ichiro; Tsukada, Minoru; Sakagami, Masamichi

    2014-01-22

    The brain contains multiple yet distinct systems involved in reward prediction. To understand the nature of these processes, we recorded single-unit activity from the lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) and the striatum in monkeys performing a reward inference task using an asymmetric reward schedule. We found that neurons both in the LPFC and in the striatum predicted reward values for stimuli that had been previously well experienced with set reward quantities in the asymmetric reward task. Importantly, these LPFC neurons could predict the reward value of a stimulus using transitive inference even when the monkeys had not yet learned the stimulus-reward association directly; whereas these striatal neurons did not show such an ability. Nevertheless, because there were two set amounts of reward (large and small), the selected striatal neurons were able to exclusively infer the reward value (e.g., large) of one novel stimulus from a pair after directly experiencing the alternative stimulus with the other reward value (e.g., small). Our results suggest that although neurons that predict reward value for old stimuli in the LPFC could also do so for new stimuli via transitive inference, those in the striatum could only predict reward for new stimuli via exclusive inference. Moreover, the striatum showed more complex functions than was surmised previously for model-free learning.

  20. Bootstrap inference when using multiple imputation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schomaker, Michael; Heumann, Christian

    2018-04-16

    Many modern estimators require bootstrapping to calculate confidence intervals because either no analytic standard error is available or the distribution of the parameter of interest is nonsymmetric. It remains however unclear how to obtain valid bootstrap inference when dealing with multiple imputation to address missing data. We present 4 methods that are intuitively appealing, easy to implement, and combine bootstrap estimation with multiple imputation. We show that 3 of the 4 approaches yield valid inference, but that the performance of the methods varies with respect to the number of imputed data sets and the extent of missingness. Simulation studies reveal the behavior of our approaches in finite samples. A topical analysis from HIV treatment research, which determines the optimal timing of antiretroviral treatment initiation in young children, demonstrates the practical implications of the 4 methods in a sophisticated and realistic setting. This analysis suffers from missing data and uses the g-formula for inference, a method for which no standard errors are available. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Inferring the colonization of a mountain range--refugia vs. nunatak survival in high alpine ground beetles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohse, Konrad; Nicholls, James A; Stone, Graham N

    2011-01-01

    It has long been debated whether high alpine specialists survived ice ages in situ on small ice-free islands of habitat, so-called nunataks, or whether glacial survival was restricted to larger massifs de refuge at the periphery. We evaluate these alternative hypotheses in a local radiation of high alpine carabid beetles (genus Trechus) in the Orobian Alps, Northern Italy. While summits along the northern ridge of this mountain range were surrounded by the icesheet as nunataks during the last glacial maximum, southern areas remained unglaciated. We analyse a total of 1366 bp of mitochondrial (Cox1 and Cox2) data sampled from 150 individuals from twelve populations and 530 bp of nuclear (PEPCK) sequence sampled for a subset of 30 individuals. Using Bayesian inference, we estimate ancestral location states in the gene trees, which in turn are used to infer the most likely order of recolonization under a model of sequential founder events from a massif de refuge from the mitochondrial data. We test for the paraphyly expected under this model and for reciprocal monophyly predicted by a contrasting model of prolonged persistence of nunatak populations. We find that (i) only three populations are incompatible with the paraphyly of the massif de refuge model, (ii) both mitochondrial and nuclear data support separate refugial origins for populations on the western and eastern ends of the northern ridge, and (iii) mitochondrial node ages suggest persistence on the northern ridge for part of the last ice age. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  2. Deer Island Aquatic Ecosystem Restoration Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-07-01

    across the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) requires that a broad base of EWN understanding and support be built . The Deer Island Aquatic...USACE) requires that a broad base of EWN understanding and support be built . The Deer Island Aquatic Ecosystem Restoration Project (Deer Island AERP...Mississippi Wetlands Restoration Projects). The project received additional funding through several public laws in response to hurricane damages

  3. Evolutionary inference via the Poisson Indel Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchard-Côté, Alexandre; Jordan, Michael I

    2013-01-22

    We address the problem of the joint statistical inference of phylogenetic trees and multiple sequence alignments from unaligned molecular sequences. This problem is generally formulated in terms of string-valued evolutionary processes along the branches of a phylogenetic tree. The classic evolutionary process, the TKF91 model [Thorne JL, Kishino H, Felsenstein J (1991) J Mol Evol 33(2):114-124] is a continuous-time Markov chain model composed of insertion, deletion, and substitution events. Unfortunately, this model gives rise to an intractable computational problem: The computation of the marginal likelihood under the TKF91 model is exponential in the number of taxa. In this work, we present a stochastic process, the Poisson Indel Process (PIP), in which the complexity of this computation is reduced to linear. The Poisson Indel Process is closely related to the TKF91 model, differing only in its treatment of insertions, but it has a global characterization as a Poisson process on the phylogeny. Standard results for Poisson processes allow key computations to be decoupled, which yields the favorable computational profile of inference under the PIP model. We present illustrative experiments in which Bayesian inference under the PIP model is compared with separate inference of phylogenies and alignments.

  4. Sedimentary Fatty Alcohols in Kapas Island, Terengganu

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noor Farahin Amiruddin; Mohamad Iznul Muazim Mohamad Zabidi; Nurul Fathihah Mt Nanyan; Masni Mohd Ali; Masni Mohd Ali

    2015-01-01

    A geochemical study was carried out to identify the composition and sources of fatty alcohols in Kapas Island, Terengganu, Malaysia. Fatty alcohols in surface sediments were extracted and analyzed using Gas Chromatography - Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS). A total of 23 fatty alcohol compounds were identified in the Kapas Island sediment. Total concentrations of fatty alcohols ranged from 0.53 to 21.31 ng/ g dry weight and the highest total concentration was found at S2, which is probably due to its location profile that is located north of Kapas Island which is close to several small islands. The short chain/ long chain fatty alcohol ratio and alcohol source index (ASI) were used together to identify the dominant input in Kapas Island. Kapas Island sediments contained a mixture of organic sources, of which terrestrial sources were indicated to be the most abundant sources in these marine sediments. (author)

  5. Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Becerril

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primary importance for land-use planning and defining emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. A definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (>  1.5 km3 DRE and longest (6 years eruption, the Timanfaya eruption (1730–1736, on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years. This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment or hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable eruptive scenarios.

  6. System Support for Forensic Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gehani, Ashish; Kirchner, Florent; Shankar, Natarajan

    Digital evidence is playing an increasingly important role in prosecuting crimes. The reasons are manifold: financially lucrative targets are now connected online, systems are so complex that vulnerabilities abound and strong digital identities are being adopted, making audit trails more useful. If the discoveries of forensic analysts are to hold up to scrutiny in court, they must meet the standard for scientific evidence. Software systems are currently developed without consideration of this fact. This paper argues for the development of a formal framework for constructing “digital artifacts” that can serve as proxies for physical evidence; a system so imbued would facilitate sound digital forensic inference. A case study involving a filesystem augmentation that provides transparent support for forensic inference is described.

  7. Fuelwood production in Prince Edward Island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCallum, B.

    1992-01-01

    The most recent Prince Edward Island Fuelwood Survey occurred in 1990-91. Consumption of fuelwood rose again to 49% of Prince Edward Island's 43,170 households. Total residential fuelwood consumption was estimated to be 242,000 m 3 . The fuelwood industry makes an important contribution to the economy of Prince Edward Island. In the 1990-91 heating season, fuelwood valued at USD 9 million displaced approximately 43 million litres of domestic heating oil valued at USD 16.4 million. In addition, it is estimated that 70 cents of every dollar spent on fuelwood remains in the province and contributes spin-off benefits, whereas 90 cents of every dollar spent on heating oil is lost to the economy of Prince Edward Island. The percentage of people cutting their own fuelwood decreased from 52 in 1984-85 to only 23.4 in 1990-91. The governments of Canada and Prince Edward Island have implemented a series of Forest Resource Development Agreements (FRDAs) starting in 1983. The current 1988-1993 FRDA provides USD 24 million for research and incentives for reforestation and management of Prince Edward Island woodlots. It is expected that 3,800 Prince Edward Island woodlot owners will be participating in a woodlot management program by 1993. Silviculture treatments of hardwood stands include thinning, stand conversion (removal of lowgrade softwoods such as balsam fir in mainly hardwood stands), and shelterwood (strip) cutting, particularly in marginal stands. (9 refs.)

  8. Geostatistical inference using crosshole ground-penetrating radar

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Looms, Majken C; Hansen, Thomas Mejer; Cordua, Knud Skou

    2010-01-01

    of the subsurface are used to evaluate the uncertainty of the inversion estimate. We have explored the full potential of the geostatistical inference method using several synthetic models of varying correlation structures and have tested the influence of different assumptions concerning the choice of covariance...... reflection profile. Furthermore, the inferred values of the subsurface global variance and the mean velocity have been corroborated with moisturecontent measurements, obtained gravimetrically from samples collected at the field site....

  9. Emergent Marine Terraces in Cebu Island, Philippines and Their Implications for Relative Sea Level Changes in the Late Quaternary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, N. T.; Sarmiento, K. J. S.; Maxwell, K. V.; Soberano, O. B.; Dimalanta, C. B.

    2017-12-01

    The remarkable preservation and extensive distribution of emergent marine terraces in the Philippines allow us to study relative sea level changes and tectonic processes during the Late Quaternary. While higher uplift rates and possible prehistoric coseismic events are recorded by emergent coral reefs facing subduction zones, the central Philippine islands are reported to reflect vertical tectonic stability as they are distant from trenches. To constrain the coastal tectonics of the central Philippine region, we studied emergent sea level indicators along the coasts of northern Cebu Island in Tabuelan, San Remigio, and Bogo City. Upper steps of marine terraces were interpreted from IFSAR-derived DEMs, in which at least two and seven steps were identified along the west (Tabuelan) and east (Bogo) coasts, respectively. In Tabuelan, two extensive terrace steps (TPT) were interpreted with TPT1 at 5-13 m above mean sea level (amsl) and TPT2 at 27-44 m amsl. Five to possibly seven terrace steps (BPT) were delineated in Bogo City with elevations from lowest (BPT1) to highest (BPT7) at BPT1: 4-6 m, BPT2: 12-18 m, BPT3: 27-33 m, BPT4: 39-46 m, BPT5: 59-71 m, BPT6: 80-92 m, and BPT7: 103-108 m amsl. These upper terraces are inferred to be Late Pleistocene in age based on an initial MIS 5e age reported for a 5-m-high terrace in Mactan Island. At some sites, even lower and narrower terrace surfaces were observed, consisting of cemented coral rubble that surround eroded and attached corals. These lower carbonate steps, with elevations ranging from 1 to 3 m amsl, further provide clues on relative sea level changes and long-term tectonic deformation across Cebu Island.

  10. Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuan Guo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM, Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM, and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM, and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

  11. A Novel Unscheduled Islanding Detection Method for Microgrid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Hui

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Microgrid with its intelligent and flexible control characteristics conform to the trend of sustainable development of electricity, and when the microgrid in the unplanned island state, the successful detection of the island is a prerequisite, energy storage inverter as the key equipment in the microgrid system, island protection is one of the necessary functions. In this paper, an improved islanding detection method based on active frequency drift and q-axis reactive power perturbation is proposed. The method has the advantages of faster detection speed and minor influence on power quality, which makes the energy storage inverter with better output power quality when it works on grid-connected state, and can be detected the islanding state quickly from grid-connected mode to islanded mode. Finally, the validity and superiority of the improved island detection method are verified by simulation experiments.

  12. Seasonal evolution of the upper-ocean adjacent to the South Orkney Islands, Southern Ocean: Results from a “lazy biological mooring”

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meredith, Michael P.; Nicholls, Keith W.; Renfrew, Ian A.; Boehme, Lars; Biuw, Martin; Fedak, Mike

    2011-07-01

    A serendipitous >8-month time series of hydrographic properties was obtained from the vicinity of the South Orkney Islands, Southern Ocean, by tagging a southern elephant seal ( Mirounga leonina) on Signy Island with a Conductivity-Temperature-Depth/Satellite-Relay Data Logger (CTD-SRDL) in March 2007. Such a time series (including data from the austral autumn and winter) would have been extremely difficult to obtain via other means, and it illustrates with unprecedented temporal resolution the seasonal progression of upper-ocean water mass properties and stratification at this location. Sea ice production values of around 0.15-0.4 m month -1 for April to July were inferred from the progression of salinity, with significant levels still in September (around 0.2 m month -1). However, these values presume that advective processes have negligible effect on the salinity changes observed locally; this presumption is seen to be inappropriate in this case, and it is argued that the ice production rates inferred are better considered as "smeared averages" for the region of the northwestern Weddell Sea upstream from the South Orkneys. The impact of such advective effects is illustrated by contrasting the observed hydrographic series with the output of a one-dimensional model of the upper-ocean forced with local fluxes. It is found that the difference in magnitude between local (modelled) and regional (inferred) ice production is significant, with estimates differing by around a factor of two. A halo of markedly low sea ice concentration around the South Orkneys during the austral winter offers at least a partial explanation for this, since it enabled stronger atmosphere/ocean fluxes to persist and hence stronger ice production to prevail locally compared with the upstream region. The year of data collection was an El Niño year, and it is well-established that this phenomenon can impact strongly on the surface ocean and ice field in this sector of the Southern Ocean, thus

  13. Comparison of the glacial chronology of Eastern Baffin Island, East Greenland and Camp century accumulation record

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andrews, John; Funder, Svend Visby; Hjort, Chritian

    1974-01-01

    ) an interval about 40,000 to 11,000 yr ago of restricted ice extent; and (5) a late glacial sladial belween 11,000 and 8,000 B.P. This record shows basic agreement with a chronology of snow accumulation at the Camp Century ice core site based on a revised chronostratigraphic interpretation. Fluctuations in sea...... level between 120,000 and 70,000 B.P. may well be related to glacierization of high arctic land masses under conditions of heavy snowfall. The subsequent reduction of accumulation in these high arctic areas then leads to a reduction of ice volume with a dry, cold interstadial correlative in time...

  14. Effects of insularity on digestion: living on islands induces shifts in physiological and morphological traits in island reptiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagonas, Kostas; Pafilis, Panayiotis; Valakos, Efstratios D.

    2015-10-01

    Living on islands entails numerous challenges for animals, among which resource scarcity stands out. In order to survive, animals have to optimize energy acquisition. We examined the impact of insularity on digestion comparing a series of physiological and morphological traits of adult males between insular and mainland populations of the Balkan green lizard. Island lizards had longer gastrointestinal tracts and gut passage times and higher digestive efficiencies. The dissection of the hindgut revealed an unexpected finding, the presence of cecal valves that were more frequent in island lizards. Thanks to all above islanders retain food for longer periods and thus maximize energy income and increase the amount of the extracted nutrients. That way, they secure energy income from the limited, in time and quantity, food resources of the islands.

  15. MARINE BOTTOM COMMUNITIES OF BLOCK ISLAND WATERS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The sea has long been an integral part of Block Island's natural history, beginning when the rising sea surrounded the high spot on a Pleistocene terminal moraine that became Block Island. The southern New England continental shelf, which lies around Block Island, and the Great S...

  16. Three Mile Island revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacLeod, G.K.

    1986-01-01

    The accident at Three Mile Island proved that the Pennsylvania Department of Health lacked the tools to deal with the serious health consequences that occurred during and after this emergency. Despite the relative safety of nuclear power generation, we must be better prepared for the health and medical consequences of serous radiation emergencies. The author reviews the Three Mile Island accident through the eyes of newspaper reporters

  17. Surficial geology of the sea floor in Long Island Sound offshore of Plum Island, New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMullen, K.Y.; Poppe, L.J.; Danforth, W.W.; Blackwood, D.S.; Schaer, J.D.; Ostapenko, A.J.; Glomb, K.A.; Doran, E.F.

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have been working cooperatively to interpret surficial sea-floor geology along the coast of the Northeastern United States. NOAA survey H11445 in eastern Long Island Sound, offshore of Plum Island, New York, covers an area of about 12 square kilometers. Multibeam bathymetry and sidescan-sonar imagery from the survey, as well as sediment and photographic data from 13 stations occupied during a USGS verification cruise are used to delineate sea-floor features and characterize the environment. Bathymetry gradually deepens offshore to over 100 meters in a depression in the northwest part of the study area and reaches 60 meters in Plum Gut, a channel between Plum Island and Orient Point. Sand waves are present on a shoal north of Plum Island and in several smaller areas around the basin. Sand-wave asymmetry indicates that counter-clockwise net sediment transport maintains the shoal. Sand is prevalent where there is low backscatter in the sidescan-sonar imagery. Gravel and boulder areas are submerged lag deposits produced from the Harbor Hill-Orient Point-Fishers Island moraine segment and are found adjacent to the shorelines and just north of Plum Island, where high backscatter is present in the sidescan-sonar imagery.

  18. From 3D to 4D seismic tomography at El Hierro Island (Canary Islands, Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Yeguas, A.; Koulakov, I.; Jakovlev, A.; Ibáñez, J. M.

    2012-04-01

    In this work we are going to show the advantages of a dynamic tomography 4D, versus a static image 3D related with a volcanic reactivation and eruption at El Hierro island (Canary Islands, Spain). In this process a high number of earthquakes before and during the eruptive processes have been registered. We are going to show a 3D image as an average of the velocity structure and then the characteristics and physical properties on the medium, including the presence or not of magma. This image will be complemented with its evolution along the time, observing its volcanic dynamic and its influence over the medium properties, including its power as an important element on early warnings protocols. After more than forty years of quiet at Canary Islands, since 1971 with Teneguía eruption at La Palma Island, and more than 200 years on El Hierro Island (The last eruption known at El Hierro took place in 1793, volcán de Lomo Negro), on 19th July on 2011 the Spanish seismic national network, administered by IGN (Instituto Geográfico Nacional), detected an increase of local seismic activity below El Hierro island (Canary Islands, Spain). Since this moment an intense swarm took place, with more than 11000 events, until 11th December, with magnitudes (MLg) from 0.2 to 4.4. In this period two eruptive processes have been declared in front of the South coast of El Hierro island, and they have not finished yet. This seismic swarm has allowed carrying out a 3D seismic tomography, using P and S waves traveltimes. It has showed a low velocity from the North to the South. On the other hand, we have performed a 4D seismic tomography, taking the events occurred at different intervals of time. We can observe the evolution of the negative anomaly along the time, from the North to the South, where has taken place La Restinga submarine eruption. 4D seismic tomography is an innovative and powerful tool able to show the evolution in time of a volcanic process.

  19. Hypersonic drift-tearing magnetic islands in tokamak plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fitzpatrick, R.; Waelbroeck, F. L.

    2007-01-01

    A two-fluid theory of long wavelength, hypersonic, drift-tearing magnetic islands in low-collisionality, low-β plasmas possessing relatively weak magnetic shear is developed. The model assumes both slab geometry and cold ions, and neglects electron temperature and equilibrium current gradient effects. The problem is solved in three asymptotically matched regions. The 'inner region' contains the island. However, the island emits electrostatic drift-acoustic waves that propagate into the surrounding 'intermediate region', where they are absorbed by the plasma. Since the waves carry momentum, the inner region exerts a net force on the intermediate region, and vice versa, giving rise to strong velocity shear in the region immediately surrounding the island. The intermediate region is matched to the surrounding 'outer region', in which ideal magnetohydrodynamic holds. Isolated hypersonic islands propagate with a velocity that lies between those of the unperturbed local ion and electron fluids, but is much closer to the latter. The ion polarization current is stabilizing, and increases with increasing island width. Finally, the hypersonic branch of isolated island solutions ceases to exist above a certain critical island width. Hypersonic islands whose widths exceed the critical width are hypothesized to bifurcate to the so-called 'sonic' solution branch

  20. Working memory supports inference learning just like classification learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Stewart; Lewandowsky, Stephan

    2013-08-01

    Recent research has found a positive relationship between people's working memory capacity (WMC) and their speed of category learning. To date, only classification-learning tasks have been considered, in which people learn to assign category labels to objects. It is unknown whether learning to make inferences about category features might also be related to WMC. We report data from a study in which 119 participants undertook classification learning and inference learning, and completed a series of WMC tasks. Working memory capacity was positively related to people's classification and inference learning performance.

  1. Floristic account of the marine benthic algae from Jarvis Island and Kingman Reef, Line Islands, Central Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vroom, P.S.

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The marine benthic algae from Jarvis Island and Kingman Reef were identified from collections obtained from the Whippoorwill Expedition in 1924, the Itasca Expedition in 1935, the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Taney in 1938, the Smithsonian Institution’s Pacific Ocean Biological Survey Program in 1964 and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Reef Assessment and Monitoring Program (RAMP in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004 and 2006. A total of 124 species, representing 8 Cyanobacteria (blue-green algae, 82 Rhodophyta (red algae, 6 Heterokontophyta (brown algae and 28 Chlorophyta (green algae, are reported from both islands. Seventy-nine and 95 species of marine benthic algae are recorded from Jarvis Island and Kingman Reef, respectively. Of the 124 species, 77 species or 62% (4 blue-green algae, 57 red algae, 2 brown algae and 14 green algae have never before been reported from the 11 remote reefs, atolls and low islands comprising the Line Islands in the Central Pacific.

  2. Small Island Visitor Attractions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haven Allahar

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This article proposes a process framework for developing and managing visitor attractions (VA in small island developing states with Trinidad and Tobago, a two-island state in the Caribbean, as the case study. An extensive literature review was conducted, supported by field observations, individual depth interviews, and small and large focus group meetings. The process framework identified four sets of processes: national policy formulation and legislation; inventory, classification, evaluation, and ranking of VA; general operations management involving project management activities; and site specific activities of development, operations, and maintenance. The value of the framework lies in the fact that no similar framework applicable to small islands was covered in the literature and validation was obtained from a panel of experts and a cross section of tourism stakeholders in Tobago.

  3. Statistical inference for stochastic processes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Basawa, Ishwar V; Prakasa Rao, B. L. S

    1980-01-01

    The aim of this monograph is to attempt to reduce the gap between theory and applications in the area of stochastic modelling, by directing the interest of future researchers to the inference aspects...

  4. Predictable evolution toward flightlessness in volant island birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Natalie A; Steadman, David W; Witt, Christopher C

    2016-04-26

    Birds are prolific colonists of islands, where they readily evolve distinct forms. Identifying predictable, directional patterns of evolutionary change in island birds, however, has proved challenging. The "island rule" predicts that island species evolve toward intermediate sizes, but its general applicability to birds is questionable. However, convergent evolution has clearly occurred in the island bird lineages that have undergone transitions to secondary flightlessness, a process involving drastic reduction of the flight muscles and enlargement of the hindlimbs. Here, we investigated whether volant island bird populations tend to change shape in a way that converges subtly on the flightless form. We found that island bird species have evolved smaller flight muscles than their continental relatives. Furthermore, in 366 populations of Caribbean and Pacific birds, smaller flight muscles and longer legs evolved in response to increasing insularity and, strikingly, the scarcity of avian and mammalian predators. On smaller islands with fewer predators, birds exhibited shifts in investment from forelimbs to hindlimbs that were qualitatively similar to anatomical rearrangements observed in flightless birds. These findings suggest that island bird populations tend to evolve on a trajectory toward flightlessness, even if most remain volant. This pattern was consistent across nine families and four orders that vary in lifestyle, foraging behavior, flight style, and body size. These predictable shifts in avian morphology may reduce the physical capacity for escape via flight and diminish the potential for small-island taxa to diversify via dispersal.

  5. Inference of Large Phylogenies Using Neighbour-Joining

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Martin; Mailund, Thomas; Pedersen, Christian Nørgaard Storm

    2011-01-01

    The neighbour-joining method is a widely used method for phylogenetic reconstruction which scales to thousands of taxa. However, advances in sequencing technology have made data sets with more than 10,000 related taxa widely available. Inference of such large phylogenies takes hours or days using...... the Neighbour-Joining method on a normal desktop computer because of the O(n^3) running time. RapidNJ is a search heuristic which reduce the running time of the Neighbour-Joining method significantly but at the cost of an increased memory consumption making inference of large phylogenies infeasible. We present...... two extensions for RapidNJ which reduce the memory requirements and \\makebox{allows} phylogenies with more than 50,000 taxa to be inferred efficiently on a desktop computer. Furthermore, an improved version of the search heuristic is presented which reduces the running time of RapidNJ on many data...

  6. Along for the ride or missing it altogether: exploring the host specificity and diversity of haemogregarines in the Canary Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomé, Beatriz; Pereira, Ana; Jorge, Fátima; Carretero, Miguel A; Harris, D James; Perera, Ana

    2018-03-19

    Host-parasite relationships are expected to be strongly shaped by host specificity, a crucial factor in parasite adaptability and diversification. Because whole host communities have to be considered to assess host specificity, oceanic islands are ideal study systems given their simplified biotic assemblages. Previous studies on insular parasites suggest host range broadening during colonization. Here, we investigate the association between one parasite group (haemogregarines) and multiple sympatric hosts (of three lizard genera: Gallotia, Chalcides and Tarentola) in the Canary Islands. Given haemogregarine characteristics and insular conditions, we hypothesized low host specificity and/or occurrence of host-switching events. A total of 825 samples were collected from the three host taxa inhabiting the seven main islands of the Canarian Archipelago, including locations where the different lizards occurred in sympatry. Blood slides were screened to assess prevalence and parasitaemia, while parasite genetic diversity and phylogenetic relationships were inferred from 18S rRNA gene sequences. Infection levels and diversity of haplotypes varied geographically and across host groups. Infections were found in all species of Gallotia across the seven islands, in Tarentola from Tenerife, La Gomera and La Palma, and in Chalcides from Tenerife, La Gomera and El Hierro. Gallotia lizards presented the highest parasite prevalence, parasitaemia and diversity (seven haplotypes), while the other two host groups (Chalcides and Tarentola) harbored one haplotype each, with low prevalence and parasitaemia levels, and very restricted geographical ranges. Host-sharing of the same haemogregarine haplotype was only detected twice, but these rare instances likely represent occasional cross-infections. Our results suggest that: (i) Canarian haemogregarine haplotypes are highly host-specific, which might have restricted parasite host expansion; (ii) haemogregarines most probably reached the

  7. Statistical causal inferences and their applications in public health research

    CERN Document Server

    Wu, Pan; Chen, Ding-Geng

    2016-01-01

    This book compiles and presents new developments in statistical causal inference. The accompanying data and computer programs are publicly available so readers may replicate the model development and data analysis presented in each chapter. In this way, methodology is taught so that readers may implement it directly. The book brings together experts engaged in causal inference research to present and discuss recent issues in causal inference methodological development. This is also a timely look at causal inference applied to scenarios that range from clinical trials to mediation and public health research more broadly. In an academic setting, this book will serve as a reference and guide to a course in causal inference at the graduate level (Master's or Doctorate). It is particularly relevant for students pursuing degrees in Statistics, Biostatistics and Computational Biology. Researchers and data analysts in public health and biomedical research will also find this book to be an important reference.

  8. The anatomy of choice: active inference and agency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl eFriston

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers agency in the setting of embodied or active inference. In brief, we associate a sense of agency with prior beliefs about action and ask what sorts of beliefs underlie optimal behaviour. In particular, we consider prior beliefs that action minimises the Kullback-Leibler divergence between desired states and attainable states in the future. This allows one to formulate bounded rationality as approximate Bayesian inference that optimises a free energy bound on model evidence. We show that constructs like expected utility, exploration bonuses, softmax choice rules and optimism bias emerge as natural consequences of this formulation. Previous accounts of active inference have focused on predictive coding and Bayesian filtering schemes for minimising free energy. Here, we consider variational Bayes as an alternative scheme that provides formal constraints on the computational anatomy of inference and action – constraints that are remarkably consistent with neuroanatomy. Furthermore, this scheme contextualises optimal decision theory and economic (utilitarian formulations as pure inference problems. For example, expected utility theory emerges as a special case of free energy minimisation, where the sensitivity or inverse temperature (of softmax functions and quantal response equilibria has a unique and Bayes-optimal solution – that minimises free energy. This sensitivity corresponds to the precision of beliefs about behaviour, such that attainable goals are afforded a higher precision or confidence. In turn, this means that optimal behaviour entails a representation of confidence about outcomes that are under an agent's control.

  9. The anatomy of choice: active inference and agency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, Karl; Schwartenbeck, Philipp; Fitzgerald, Thomas; Moutoussis, Michael; Behrens, Timothy; Dolan, Raymond J

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers agency in the setting of embodied or active inference. In brief, we associate a sense of agency with prior beliefs about action and ask what sorts of beliefs underlie optimal behavior. In particular, we consider prior beliefs that action minimizes the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between desired states and attainable states in the future. This allows one to formulate bounded rationality as approximate Bayesian inference that optimizes a free energy bound on model evidence. We show that constructs like expected utility, exploration bonuses, softmax choice rules and optimism bias emerge as natural consequences of this formulation. Previous accounts of active inference have focused on predictive coding and Bayesian filtering schemes for minimizing free energy. Here, we consider variational Bayes as an alternative scheme that provides formal constraints on the computational anatomy of inference and action-constraints that are remarkably consistent with neuroanatomy. Furthermore, this scheme contextualizes optimal decision theory and economic (utilitarian) formulations as pure inference problems. For example, expected utility theory emerges as a special case of free energy minimization, where the sensitivity or inverse temperature (of softmax functions and quantal response equilibria) has a unique and Bayes-optimal solution-that minimizes free energy. This sensitivity corresponds to the precision of beliefs about behavior, such that attainable goals are afforded a higher precision or confidence. In turn, this means that optimal behavior entails a representation of confidence about outcomes that are under an agent's control.

  10. Universal Darwinism As a Process of Bayesian Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, John O

    2016-01-01

    Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes' Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus, natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians). As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational) free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an "experiment" in the external world environment, and the results of that "experiment" or the "surprise" entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the "experiment." Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of "surprise" experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature.

  11. sick: The Spectroscopic Inference Crank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casey, Andrew R.

    2016-03-01

    There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives that remain severely under-utilized. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analyzing large volumes of spectra contributes to this situation, which is poised to worsen as large surveys successively release orders of magnitude more spectra. In this article I introduce sick, the spectroscopic inference crank, a flexible and fast Bayesian tool for inferring astrophysical parameters from spectra. sick is agnostic to the wavelength coverage, resolving power, or general data format, allowing any user to easily construct a generative model for their data, regardless of its source. sick can be used to provide a nearest-neighbor estimate of model parameters, a numerically optimized point estimate, or full Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability distributions. This generality empowers any astronomer to capitalize on the plethora of published synthetic and observed spectra, and make precise inferences for a host of astrophysical (and nuisance) quantities. Model intensities can be reliably approximated from existing grids of synthetic or observed spectra using linear multi-dimensional interpolation, or a Cannon-based model. Additional phenomena that transform the data (e.g., redshift, rotational broadening, continuum, spectral resolution) are incorporated as free parameters and can be marginalized away. Outlier pixels (e.g., cosmic rays or poorly modeled regimes) can be treated with a Gaussian mixture model, and a noise model is included to account for systematically underestimated variance. Combining these phenomena into a scalar-justified, quantitative model permits precise inferences with credible uncertainties on noisy data. I describe the common model features, the implementation details, and the default behavior, which is balanced to be suitable for most astronomical applications. Using a forward model on low-resolution, high signal

  12. SICK: THE SPECTROSCOPIC INFERENCE CRANK

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casey, Andrew R., E-mail: arc@ast.cam.ac.uk [Institute of Astronomy, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambdridge, CB3 0HA (United Kingdom)

    2016-03-15

    There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives that remain severely under-utilized. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analyzing large volumes of spectra contributes to this situation, which is poised to worsen as large surveys successively release orders of magnitude more spectra. In this article I introduce sick, the spectroscopic inference crank, a flexible and fast Bayesian tool for inferring astrophysical parameters from spectra. sick is agnostic to the wavelength coverage, resolving power, or general data format, allowing any user to easily construct a generative model for their data, regardless of its source. sick can be used to provide a nearest-neighbor estimate of model parameters, a numerically optimized point estimate, or full Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability distributions. This generality empowers any astronomer to capitalize on the plethora of published synthetic and observed spectra, and make precise inferences for a host of astrophysical (and nuisance) quantities. Model intensities can be reliably approximated from existing grids of synthetic or observed spectra using linear multi-dimensional interpolation, or a Cannon-based model. Additional phenomena that transform the data (e.g., redshift, rotational broadening, continuum, spectral resolution) are incorporated as free parameters and can be marginalized away. Outlier pixels (e.g., cosmic rays or poorly modeled regimes) can be treated with a Gaussian mixture model, and a noise model is included to account for systematically underestimated variance. Combining these phenomena into a scalar-justified, quantitative model permits precise inferences with credible uncertainties on noisy data. I describe the common model features, the implementation details, and the default behavior, which is balanced to be suitable for most astronomical applications. Using a forward model on low-resolution, high signal

  13. SICK: THE SPECTROSCOPIC INFERENCE CRANK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casey, Andrew R.

    2016-01-01

    There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives that remain severely under-utilized. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analyzing large volumes of spectra contributes to this situation, which is poised to worsen as large surveys successively release orders of magnitude more spectra. In this article I introduce sick, the spectroscopic inference crank, a flexible and fast Bayesian tool for inferring astrophysical parameters from spectra. sick is agnostic to the wavelength coverage, resolving power, or general data format, allowing any user to easily construct a generative model for their data, regardless of its source. sick can be used to provide a nearest-neighbor estimate of model parameters, a numerically optimized point estimate, or full Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability distributions. This generality empowers any astronomer to capitalize on the plethora of published synthetic and observed spectra, and make precise inferences for a host of astrophysical (and nuisance) quantities. Model intensities can be reliably approximated from existing grids of synthetic or observed spectra using linear multi-dimensional interpolation, or a Cannon-based model. Additional phenomena that transform the data (e.g., redshift, rotational broadening, continuum, spectral resolution) are incorporated as free parameters and can be marginalized away. Outlier pixels (e.g., cosmic rays or poorly modeled regimes) can be treated with a Gaussian mixture model, and a noise model is included to account for systematically underestimated variance. Combining these phenomena into a scalar-justified, quantitative model permits precise inferences with credible uncertainties on noisy data. I describe the common model features, the implementation details, and the default behavior, which is balanced to be suitable for most astronomical applications. Using a forward model on low-resolution, high signal

  14. Numerical modeling of atoll island hydrogeology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, R T; Jenson, J W; Olsen, A E

    2009-01-01

    We implemented Ayers and Vachers' (1986) inclusive conceptual model for atoll island aquifers in a comprehensive numerical modeling study to evaluate the response of the fresh water lens to selected controlling climatic and geologic variables. Climatic factors include both constant and time-varying recharge rates, with particular attention paid to the effects of El Niño and the associated drought it brings to the western Pacific. Geologic factors include island width; hydraulic conductivity of the uppermost Holocene-age aquifer, which contains the fresh water lens; the depth to the contact with the underlying, and much more conductive, Pleistocene karst aquifer, which transmits tidal signals to the base of the lens; and the presence or absence of a semiconfining reef flat plate on the ocean side. Sensitivity analyses of steady-steady simulations show that lens thickness is most strongly sensitive to the depth to the Holocene-Pleistocene contact and to the hydraulic conductivity of the Holocene aquifer, respectively. Comparisons between modeling results and published observations of atoll island lens thicknesses suggest a hydraulic conductivity of approximately 50 m/d for leeward islands and approximately 400 m/d for windward islands. Results of transient simulations show that lens thickness fluctuations during average seasonal conditions and El Niño events are quite sensitive to island width, recharge rate, and hydraulic conductivity of the Holocene aquifer. In general, the depletion of the lens during drought conditions is most drastic for small, windward islands. Simulation results suggest that recovery from a 6-month drought requires about 1.5 years.

  15. Climate Change in the Pacific Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamnett, Michael P.

    Climate change have been a major concern among Pacific Islanders since the late 1990s. During that period, Time Magazine featured a cover story that read: Say Goodbye to the Marshall Islands, Kiribati, and Tuvalu from sea level rise. Since that time, the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme, UN and government agencies and academic researchers have been assessing the impacts of long-term climate change and seasonal to inter-annual climate variability on the Pacific Islands. The consensus is that long-term climate change will result in more extreme weather and tidal events including droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, coastal erosion, and salt water inundation. Extreme weather events already occur in the Pacific Islands and they are patterned. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events impact rainfall, tropical cyclone and tidal patterns. In 2000, the first National Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Variability and Change concluded that long-term climate change will result in more El Niño events or a more El Niño like climate every year. The bad news is that will mean more natural disasters. The good news is that El Niño events can be predicted and people can prepare for them. The reallly bad news is that some Pacific Islands are already becoming uninhabitable because of erosion of land or the loss of fresh water from droughts and salt water intrusion. Many of the most vulnerable countries already overseas populations in New Zealand, the US, or larger Pacific Island countries. For some Pacific Islander abandoning their home countries will be their only option.

  16. Modeling Flare Hard X-ray Emission from Electrons in Contracting Magnetic Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guidoni, Silvina E.; Allred, Joel C.; Alaoui, Meriem; Holman, Gordon D.; DeVore, C. Richard; Karpen, Judith T.

    2016-05-01

    The mechanism that accelerates particles to the energies required to produce the observed impulsive hard X-ray emission in solar flares is not well understood. It is generally accepted that this emission is produced by a non-thermal beam of electrons that collides with the ambient ions as the beam propagates from the top of a flare loop to its footpoints. Most current models that investigate this transport assume an injected beam with an initial energy spectrum inferred from observed hard X-ray spectra, usually a power law with a low-energy cutoff. In our previous work (Guidoni et al. 2016), we proposed an analytical method to estimate particle energy gain in contracting, large-scale, 2.5-dimensional magnetic islands, based on a kinetic model by Drake et al. (2010). We applied this method to sunward-moving islands formed high in the corona during fast reconnection in a simulated eruptive flare. The overarching purpose of the present work is to test this proposed acceleration model by estimating the hard X-ray flux resulting from its predicted accelerated-particle distribution functions. To do so, we have coupled our model to a unified computational framework that simulates the propagation of an injected beam as it deposits energy and momentum along its way (Allred et al. 2015). This framework includes the effects of radiative transfer and return currents, necessary to estimate flare emission that can be compared directly to observations. We will present preliminary results of the coupling between these models.

  17. On principles of inductive inference

    OpenAIRE

    Kostecki, Ryszard Paweł

    2011-01-01

    We propose an intersubjective epistemic approach to foundations of probability theory and statistical inference, based on relative entropy and category theory, and aimed to bypass the mathematical and conceptual problems of existing foundational approaches.

  18. Professional operation and management of nuclear island installation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Limin

    2011-01-01

    As an important part of nuclear power plant construction, nuclear island installation mainly involves main equipment installation, pipeline installation, associated procedure examination and other important tasks. However, due to the nuclear island installation management changing from single project to multi-projects, the problems such as professional management of nuclear island installation and the lack of technical staff become more and more prominent and become one of the key restricts to the work of nuclear island installation. Based on analysis of the single project, single-base nuclear island installation management and practice, combined with the current situation that multi-project and multi-base construction of nuclear power are carrying out at the same time, this paper proposes a new management model of nuclear island installation. (author)

  19. Phytoseiid mites of the Canary Islands (Acari, Phytoseiidae. II. Tenerife and La Gomera Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferragut, F.

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Phytoseiid mites (Acari, Phytoseiidae inhabiting plants in natural ecosystems from Tenerife and La Gomera islands (Canary Islands have been studied. Surveys were conducted from 1997 to 2002. Eleven species were collected, one of them being reported for the first time from the Canary Islands and six of them reported for the first time from Tenerife and La Gomera islands. Euseius machadoi n. sp. collected from woody plants in the Canarian laurisilva is proposed as a new species.

    En muestreos realizados desde 1997 hasta 2002 se ha estudiado la fauna de ácaros fitoseidos (Acari, Phytoseiidae asociada a plantas de ecosistemas naturales de las islas de Tenerife y La Gomera (Islas Canarias. Se han recolectado un total de 11 especies, siendo una de ellas citada por vez primera en las islas Canarias y seis de ellas citadas por primera vez en las islas de Tenerife y La Gomera. Euseius machadoi n. sp., recolectado en plantas leñosas de la laurisilva canaria, se propone como una nueva especie.

  20. Model averaging, optimal inference and habit formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas H B FitzGerald

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Postulating that the brain performs approximate Bayesian inference generates principled and empirically testable models of neuronal function – the subject of much current interest in neuroscience and related disciplines. Current formulations address inference and learning under some assumed and particular model. In reality, organisms are often faced with an additional challenge – that of determining which model or models of their environment are the best for guiding behaviour. Bayesian model averaging – which says that an agent should weight the predictions of different models according to their evidence – provides a principled way to solve this problem. Importantly, because model evidence is determined by both the accuracy and complexity of the model, optimal inference requires that these be traded off against one another. This means an agent’s behaviour should show an equivalent balance. We hypothesise that Bayesian model averaging plays an important role in cognition, given that it is both optimal and realisable within a plausible neuronal architecture. We outline model averaging and how it might be implemented, and then explore a number of implications for brain and behaviour. In particular, we propose that model averaging can explain a number of apparently suboptimal phenomena within the framework of approximate (bounded Bayesian inference, focussing particularly upon the relationship between goal-directed and habitual behaviour.

  1. Decolonizing through integration: Australia's off-shore island territories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger Wettenhall

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Australia’s three small off-shore island territories – Norfolk Island in the Pacific Ocean and Christmas Island and the Cocos (Keeling Islands Group in the Indian Ocean – can be seen as monuments to 19th century British-style colonization, though their early paths to development took very different courses. Their transition to the status of external territories of the Australian Commonwealth in the 20th century – early in the case of Norfolk and later in the cases of Christmas and Cocos – put them on a common path in which serious tensions emerged between local populations which sought autonomous governance and the Commonwealth government which wanted to impose governmental systems similar to those applying to mainstream Australians. This article explores the issues involved, and seeks to relate the governmental history of the three island territories to the exploration of island jurisdictions developed in island studies research.

  2. Bootstrapping phylogenies inferred from rearrangement data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Yu

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Large-scale sequencing of genomes has enabled the inference of phylogenies based on the evolution of genomic architecture, under such events as rearrangements, duplications, and losses. Many evolutionary models and associated algorithms have been designed over the last few years and have found use in comparative genomics and phylogenetic inference. However, the assessment of phylogenies built from such data has not been properly addressed to date. The standard method used in sequence-based phylogenetic inference is the bootstrap, but it relies on a large number of homologous characters that can be resampled; yet in the case of rearrangements, the entire genome is a single character. Alternatives such as the jackknife suffer from the same problem, while likelihood tests cannot be applied in the absence of well established probabilistic models. Results We present a new approach to the assessment of distance-based phylogenetic inference from whole-genome data; our approach combines features of the jackknife and the bootstrap and remains nonparametric. For each feature of our method, we give an equivalent feature in the sequence-based framework; we also present the results of extensive experimental testing, in both sequence-based and genome-based frameworks. Through the feature-by-feature comparison and the experimental results, we show that our bootstrapping approach is on par with the classic phylogenetic bootstrap used in sequence-based reconstruction, and we establish the clear superiority of the classic bootstrap for sequence data and of our corresponding new approach for rearrangement data over proposed variants. Finally, we test our approach on a small dataset of mammalian genomes, verifying that the support values match current thinking about the respective branches. Conclusions Our method is the first to provide a standard of assessment to match that of the classic phylogenetic bootstrap for aligned sequences. Its

  3. Bootstrapping phylogenies inferred from rearrangement data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yu; Rajan, Vaibhav; Moret, Bernard Me

    2012-08-29

    Large-scale sequencing of genomes has enabled the inference of phylogenies based on the evolution of genomic architecture, under such events as rearrangements, duplications, and losses. Many evolutionary models and associated algorithms have been designed over the last few years and have found use in comparative genomics and phylogenetic inference. However, the assessment of phylogenies built from such data has not been properly addressed to date. The standard method used in sequence-based phylogenetic inference is the bootstrap, but it relies on a large number of homologous characters that can be resampled; yet in the case of rearrangements, the entire genome is a single character. Alternatives such as the jackknife suffer from the same problem, while likelihood tests cannot be applied in the absence of well established probabilistic models. We present a new approach to the assessment of distance-based phylogenetic inference from whole-genome data; our approach combines features of the jackknife and the bootstrap and remains nonparametric. For each feature of our method, we give an equivalent feature in the sequence-based framework; we also present the results of extensive experimental testing, in both sequence-based and genome-based frameworks. Through the feature-by-feature comparison and the experimental results, we show that our bootstrapping approach is on par with the classic phylogenetic bootstrap used in sequence-based reconstruction, and we establish the clear superiority of the classic bootstrap for sequence data and of our corresponding new approach for rearrangement data over proposed variants. Finally, we test our approach on a small dataset of mammalian genomes, verifying that the support values match current thinking about the respective branches. Our method is the first to provide a standard of assessment to match that of the classic phylogenetic bootstrap for aligned sequences. Its support values follow a similar scale and its receiver

  4. Classification versus inference learning contrasted with real-world categories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Erin L; Ross, Brian H

    2011-07-01

    Categories are learned and used in a variety of ways, but the research focus has been on classification learning. Recent work contrasting classification with inference learning of categories found important later differences in category performance. However, theoretical accounts differ on whether this is due to an inherent difference between the tasks or to the implementation decisions. The inherent-difference explanation argues that inference learners focus on the internal structure of the categories--what each category is like--while classification learners focus on diagnostic information to predict category membership. In two experiments, using real-world categories and controlling for earlier methodological differences, inference learners learned more about what each category was like than did classification learners, as evidenced by higher performance on a novel classification test. These results suggest that there is an inherent difference between learning new categories by classifying an item versus inferring a feature.

  5. Statistical inference via fiducial methods

    OpenAIRE

    Salomé, Diemer

    1998-01-01

    In this thesis the attention is restricted to inductive reasoning using a mathematical probability model. A statistical procedure prescribes, for every theoretically possible set of data, the inference about the unknown of interest. ... Zie: Summary

  6. Stygofauna of the Canary Islands, 9. The amphipod genus Pseudoniphargus (Crustacea) in the Canary Islands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stock, Jan H.

    1988-01-01

    Pseudoniphargus was known from inland stygohabitats in the Iberian peninsula, the Azores, Madeira, N.W. Africa, and Bermuda, but not from the Canary Islands. Systematic sampling in six of the seven larger islands of the latter archipelago has revealed the presence of the genus in Tenerife (4

  7. Reconstructed Marine Fisheries Catches at a Remote Island Group: Pitcairn Islands (1950–2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy R. Coghlan

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The remote Pitcairn Island Group in the South Pacific was designated one of the world's largest marine reserves in 2016, encompassing some of the few remaining near-pristine areas within EEZ boundaries. Pitcairn's domestic fisheries are small-scale, and consist mainly of subsistence (non-commercial and limited artisanal (commercial catches. There is no locally-based industrial (large-scale commercial fishery and the level of foreign industrial activity in recent times has been minimal, due in part to the low biomass of commercially valuable species, along with economic constraints of the EEZ's geographic isolation. Using a catch reconstruction method we estimated the total domestic marine catches for the Pitcairn Islands from 1950 to 2014. We show that overall the Pitcairn Islands' small-scale fisheries catches were almost 2.5 times higher than the data reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO of the United Nations on behalf of the Pitcairn Islands, however, this primarily reflects discrepancies prior to the 1980s. Overall, catches for the subsistence and artisanal sectors started with around 12 t·year−1 in 1950, but declined to 4 t·year−1 by 2014. Domestic reconstructed subsistence catch levels were entirely driven by changes in the human population on the island, with reconstructed artisanal catches only occurring in recent years (2000 onwards. Industrial fishing is entirely executed by foreign vessels, this catch is considerably variable throughout the years and ceases entirely in 2006. The implementation of one of the world's largest marine reserves surrounding the offshore waters of Pitcairn Island has been specifically designed not to affect the rates of subsistence and artisanal fishing conducted by the resident population. Although there is no industrial fishing in the Pitcairn EEZ at present, climate change is predicted to influence the routes of migrating commercially-targeted species, potentially altering fishing

  8. 33 CFR 334.1420 - Pacific Ocean off Orote Point, Apra Harbor, Island of Guam, Marianas Islands; small arms firing...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Pacific Ocean off Orote Point, Apra Harbor, Island of Guam, Marianas Islands; small arms firing range. 334.1420 Section 334.1420... AND RESTRICTED AREA REGULATIONS § 334.1420 Pacific Ocean off Orote Point, Apra Harbor, Island of Guam...

  9. The transport characteristics of passing fast ions produced by nonlocal overlapping of drift island surfaces and magnetic island surfaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cao, Jinjia; Gong, Xueyu, E-mail: gongxueyu-usc@163.com; Xiang, Dong; Huang, Qianhong [School of Nuclear Science and Technology, University of South China, Hengyang 421001 (China); Yu, Jun [School of Mathematics and Physics, University of South China, Hengyang 421001 (China)

    2016-08-15

    The structure of the drift-island surface of passing fast ions (PFIs) is investigated in the presence of the resonant interaction with a magnetic island. Two overlapping regions of the drift-island surface and the magnetic island surface are found, one corresponding to local overlapping region and the other to non-local one. Here, the word “nonlocal” denotes that the resonances in the core plasma can have effects on the PFIs near the plasma boundary, while the “local” represents that the PFIs just near the resonant location are influenced. The nonlocal overlapping constructs a transport path along which the PFIs can become losses. There are three kinds of drift-island surfaces to join in forming the transport paths. A pitch angle region, which is called pitch angle gap, is found near the plasma boundary, where the drift-island surface cannot be formed and few PFIs are lost. The pitch-angle selective features of PFI losses are obtained by analyzing the three kinds of drift-island surfaces. The coupling between the crowd drift island surfaces and the collision can induce the prompt losses of PFIs and rapidly slowing down of PFI energy. The time of the prompt losses and the slowing down rate are calculated. Qualitatively, the theoretical results are in well agreement with the experimental observations in ASDEX Upgrade [M. García-Muñoz et al., Nucl. Fusion 47, L10 (2007)].

  10. Information-Theoretic Inference of Large Transcriptional Regulatory Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meyer Patrick

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents MRNET, an original method for inferring genetic networks from microarray data. The method is based on maximum relevance/minimum redundancy (MRMR, an effective information-theoretic technique for feature selection in supervised learning. The MRMR principle consists in selecting among the least redundant variables the ones that have the highest mutual information with the target. MRNET extends this feature selection principle to networks in order to infer gene-dependence relationships from microarray data. The paper assesses MRNET by benchmarking it against RELNET, CLR, and ARACNE, three state-of-the-art information-theoretic methods for large (up to several thousands of genes network inference. Experimental results on thirty synthetically generated microarray datasets show that MRNET is competitive with these methods.

  11. Information-Theoretic Inference of Large Transcriptional Regulatory Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick E. Meyer

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents MRNET, an original method for inferring genetic networks from microarray data. The method is based on maximum relevance/minimum redundancy (MRMR, an effective information-theoretic technique for feature selection in supervised learning. The MRMR principle consists in selecting among the least redundant variables the ones that have the highest mutual information with the target. MRNET extends this feature selection principle to networks in order to infer gene-dependence relationships from microarray data. The paper assesses MRNET by benchmarking it against RELNET, CLR, and ARACNE, three state-of-the-art information-theoretic methods for large (up to several thousands of genes network inference. Experimental results on thirty synthetically generated microarray datasets show that MRNET is competitive with these methods.

  12. IMAGINE: Interstellar MAGnetic field INference Engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steininger, Theo

    2018-03-01

    IMAGINE (Interstellar MAGnetic field INference Engine) performs inference on generic parametric models of the Galaxy. The modular open source framework uses highly optimized tools and technology such as the MultiNest sampler (ascl:1109.006) and the information field theory framework NIFTy (ascl:1302.013) to create an instance of the Milky Way based on a set of parameters for physical observables, using Bayesian statistics to judge the mismatch between measured data and model prediction. The flexibility of the IMAGINE framework allows for simple refitting for newly available data sets and makes state-of-the-art Bayesian methods easily accessible particularly for random components of the Galactic magnetic field.

  13. Non-Gaussianity in island cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piao Yunsong

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we fully calculate the non-Gaussianity of primordial curvature perturbation of the island universe by using the second order perturbation equation. We find that for the spectral index n s ≅0.96, which is favored by current observations, the non-Gaussianity level f NL seen in an island will generally lie between 30 and 60, which may be tested by the coming observations. In the landscape, the island universe is one of anthropically acceptable cosmological histories. Thus the results obtained in some sense mean the coming observations, especially the measurement of non-Gaussianity, will be significant to clarify how our position in the landscape is populated.

  14. The CpG island searcher: a new WWW resource.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takai, Daiya; Jones, Peter A

    2003-01-01

    Clusters of CpG dinucleotides in GC rich regions of the genome called "CpG islands" frequently occur in the 5' ends of genes. Methylation of CpG islands plays a role in transcriptional silencing in higher organisms in certain situations. We have established a CpG-island-extraction algorithm, which we previously developed [Takai and Jones, 2002], on a web site which has a simple user interface to identify CpG islands from submitted sequences of up to 50kb. The web site determines the locations of CpG islands using parameters (lower limit of %GC, ObsCpG/ExpCpG, length) set by the user, to display the value of parameters on each CpG island, and provides a graphical map of CpG dinucleotide distribution and borders of CpG islands. A command-line version of the CpG islands searcher has also been developed for larger sequences. The CpG Island Searcher was applied to the latest sequence and mapping information of human chromosomes 20, 21 and 22, and a total of 2345 CpG islands were extracted and 534 (23%) of them contained first coding exons and 650 (28%) contained other exons. The CpG Island Searcher is available on the World Wide Web at http://www.cpgislands.com or http://www.uscnorris.com/cpgislands/cpg.cgi.

  15. Climate change vulnerability to agrarian ecosystem of small Island: evidence from Sagar Island, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandal, S.; Satpati, L. N.; Choudhury, B. U.; Sadhu, S.

    2018-04-01

    The present study assessed climate change vulnerability in agricultural sector of low-lying Sagar Island of Bay of Bengal. Vulnerability indices were estimated using spatially aggregated biophysical and socio-economic parameters by applying principal component analysis and equal weight method. The similarities and differences of outputs of these two methods were analysed across the island. From the integration of outputs and based on the severity of vulnerability, explicit vulnerable zones were demarcated spatially. Results revealed that life subsistence agriculture in 11.8% geographical area (2829 ha) of the island along the western coast falls under very high vulnerable zone (VHVZ VI of 84-99%) to climate change. Comparatively higher values of exposure (0.53 ± 0.26) and sensitivity (0.78 ± 0.14) subindices affirmed that the VHV zone is highly exposed to climate stressor with very low adaptive capacity (ADI= 0.24 ± 0.16) to combat vulnerability to climate change. Hence, food security for a population of >22 thousands comprising >3.7 thousand agrarian households are highly exposed to climate change. Another 17% area comprising 17.5% population covering 20% villages in north-western and eastern parts of the island also falls under high vulnerable (VI= 61%-77%) zone. Findings revealed large spatial heterogeneity in the degree of vulnerability across the island and thus, demands devising area specific planning (adaptation and mitigation strategies) to address the climate change impact implications both at macro and micro levels.

  16. Diet patterns of island foxes on San Nicolas Island relative to feral cat removal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cypher, Brian L.; Kelly, Erica C.; Ferrara, Francesca J.; Drost, Charles A.; Westall, Tory L.; Hudgens, Brian

    2017-01-01

    Island foxes (Urocyon littoralis) are a species of conservation concern that occur on six of the Channel Islands off the coast of southern California. We analysed island fox diet on San Nicolas Island during 2006–12 to assess the influence of the removal of feral cats (Felis catus) on the food use by foxes. Our objective was to determine whether fox diet patterns shifted in response to the cat removal conducted during 2009–10, thus indicating that cats were competing with foxes for food items. We also examined the influence of annual precipitation patterns and fox abundance on fox diet. On the basis of an analysis of 1975 fox scats, use of vertebrate prey – deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus), birds, and lizards – increased significantly during and after the complete removal of cats (n = 66) from the island. Deer mouse abundance increased markedly during and after cat removal and use of mice by foxes was significantly related to mouse abundance. The increase in mice and shift in item use by the foxes was consistent with a reduction in exploitative competition associated with the cat removal. However, fox abundance declined markedly coincident with the removal of cats and deer mouse abundance was negatively related to fox numbers. Also, annual precipitation increased markedly during and after cat removal and deer mouse abundance closely tracked precipitation. Thus, our results indicate that other confounding factors, particularly precipitation, may have had a greater influence on fox diet patterns.

  17. Results and Error Estimates from GRACE Forward Modeling over Greenland, Canada, and Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonin, J. A.; Chambers, D. P.

    2012-12-01

    Forward modeling using a weighted least squares technique allows GRACE information to be projected onto a pre-determined collection of local basins. This decreases the impact of spatial leakage, allowing estimates of mass change to be better localized. The technique is especially valuable where models of current-day mass change are poor, such as over Greenland and Antarctica. However, the accuracy of the forward model technique has not been determined, nor is it known how the distribution of the local basins affects the results. We use a "truth" model composed of hydrology and ice-melt slopes as an example case, to estimate the uncertainties of this forward modeling method and expose those design parameters which may result in an incorrect high-resolution mass distribution. We then apply these optimal parameters in a forward model estimate created from RL05 GRACE data. We compare the resulting mass slopes with the expected systematic errors from the simulation, as well as GIA and basic trend-fitting uncertainties. We also consider whether specific regions (such as Ellesmere Island and Baffin Island) can be estimated reliably using our optimal basin layout.

  18. Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Wan

    Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases.

  19. A Learning Algorithm for Multimodal Grammar Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Ulizia, A; Ferri, F; Grifoni, P

    2011-12-01

    The high costs of development and maintenance of multimodal grammars in integrating and understanding input in multimodal interfaces lead to the investigation of novel algorithmic solutions in automating grammar generation and in updating processes. Many algorithms for context-free grammar inference have been developed in the natural language processing literature. An extension of these algorithms toward the inference of multimodal grammars is necessary for multimodal input processing. In this paper, we propose a novel grammar inference mechanism that allows us to learn a multimodal grammar from its positive samples of multimodal sentences. The algorithm first generates the multimodal grammar that is able to parse the positive samples of sentences and, afterward, makes use of two learning operators and the minimum description length metrics in improving the grammar description and in avoiding the over-generalization problem. The experimental results highlight the acceptable performances of the algorithm proposed in this paper since it has a very high probability of parsing valid sentences.

  20. Population biology of establishment in New Zealand hedgehogs inferred from genetic and historical data: conflict or compromise?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolfíková, Barbora; Konečný, Adam; Pfäffle, Miriam; Skuballa, Jasmin; Hulva, Pavel

    2013-07-01

    The crucial steps in biological invasions, related to the shaping of genetic architecture and the current evolution of adaptations to a novel environment, usually occur in small populations during the phases of introduction and establishment. However, these processes are difficult to track in nature due to invasion lag, large geographic and temporal scales compared with human observation capabilities, the frequent depletion of genetic variance, admixture and other phenomena. In this study, we compared genetic and historical evidence related to the invasion of the West European hedgehog to New Zealand to infer details about the introduction and establishment. Historical information indicates that the species was initially established on the South Island. A molecular assay of populations from Great Britain and New Zealand using mitochondrial sequences and nuclear microsatellite loci was performed based on a set of analyses including approximate Bayesian computation, a powerful approach for disentangling complex population demographies. According to these analyses, the population of the North Island was most similar to that of the native area and showed greatest reduction in genetic variation caused by founder demography and/or drift. This evidence indicated the location of the establishment phase. The hypothesis was corroborated by data on climate and urbanization. We discuss the contrasting results obtained by the molecular and historical approaches in the light of their different explanatory power and the possible biases influencing the description of particular aspects of invasions, and we advocate the integration of the two types of approaches in invasion biology. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.