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Sample records for back-country avalanche forecasting

  1. Forecasting of wet snow avalanche activity: Proof of concept and operational implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobiet, Andreas; Jöbstl, Lisa; Rieder, Hannes; Bellaire, Sascha; Mitterer, Christoph

    2017-04-01

    State-of-the-art tools for the operational assessment of avalanche danger include field observations, recordings from automatic weather stations, meteorological analyses and forecasts, and recently also indices derived from snowpack models. In particular, an index for identifying the onset of wet-snow avalanche cycles (LWCindex), has been demonstrated to be useful. However, its value for operational avalanche forecasting is currently limited, since detailed, physically based snowpack models are usually driven by meteorological data from automatic weather stations only and have therefore no prognostic ability. Since avalanche risk management heavily relies on timely information and early warnings, many avalanche services in Europe nowadays start issuing forecasts for the following days, instead of the traditional assessment of the current avalanche danger. In this context, the prognostic operation of detailed snowpack models has recently been objective of extensive research. In this study a new, observationally constrained setup for forecasting the onset of wet-snow avalanche cycles with the detailed snow cover model SNOWPACK is presented and evaluated. Based on data from weather stations and different numerical weather prediction models, we demonstrate that forecasts of the LWCindex as indicator for wet-snow avalanche cycles can be useful for operational warning services, but is so far not reliable enough to be used as single warning tool without considering other factors. Therefore, further development currently focuses on the improvement of the forecasts by applying ensemble techniques and suitable post processing approaches to the output of numerical weather prediction models. In parallel, the prognostic meteo-snow model chain is operationally used by two regional avalanche warning services in Austria since winter 2016/2017 for the first time. Experiences from the first operational season and first results from current model developments will be reported.

  2. Infrasound array criteria for automatic detection and front velocity estimation of snow avalanches: towards a real-time early-warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchetti, E.; Ripepe, M.; Ulivieri, G.; Kogelnig, A.

    2015-11-01

    Avalanche risk management is strongly related to the ability to identify and timely report the occurrence of snow avalanches. Infrasound has been applied to avalanche research and monitoring for the last 20 years but it never turned into an operational tool to identify clear signals related to avalanches. We present here a method based on the analysis of infrasound signals recorded by a small aperture array in Ischgl (Austria), which provides a significant improvement to overcome this limit. The method is based on array-derived wave parameters, such as back azimuth and apparent velocity. The method defines threshold criteria for automatic avalanche identification by considering avalanches as a moving source of infrasound. We validate the efficiency of the automatic infrasound detection with continuous observations with Doppler radar and we show how the velocity of a snow avalanche in any given path around the array can be efficiently derived. Our results indicate that a proper infrasound array analysis allows a robust, real-time, remote detection of snow avalanches that is able to provide the number and the time of occurrence of snow avalanches occurring all around the array, which represent key information for a proper validation of avalanche forecast models and risk management in a given area.

  3. Forecast errors in IEA-countries' energy consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Linderoth, Hans

    2002-01-01

    Every year Policy of IEA Countries includes a forecast of the energy consumption in the member countries. Forecasts concerning the years 1985,1990 and 1995 can now be compared to actual values. The second oil crisis resulted in big positive forecast errors. The oil price drop in 1986 did not have...... the small value is often the sum of large positive and negative errors. Almost no significant correlation is found between forecast errors in the 3 years. Correspondingly, no significant correlation coefficient is found between forecasts errors in the 3 main energy sectors. Therefore, a relatively small...

  4. Calibration of snow avalanche mathematical models using the data of real avalanches in the Ile (Zailiyskiy Alatau Range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. P. Blagoveshchensky

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The calibration of the dry friction and turbulent friction coefficients is necessary for computer simulation of avalanches. The method of back calculation based on data on actual avalanches is used for this purpose. The article presents the results of the calibration of the Eglit’s and RAMMS models for Ile Alatau range condi‑ tions. The range is located in Kazakhstan. The data on six avalanches in the same avalanche site were used. Five avalanches were dry, and one avalanche was wet. Avalanches volume varied from 2000 to 12000  m3. Maximum speed avalanches were between 15 and 30  m/s, the flow height  – from 3 to 10  m. Series of back calculations with different values of the friction coefficients was made to obtain the calibrated coeffi‑ cients. The calibrated coefficients were chosen under condition of the best fit with real avalanches. The cal‑ ibrated coefficients were following. For the Eglit’s model for dry avalanches of the volume 2000–5000  m3 μ = 0.46÷0.48, k = 0.005–0.006, and the volume 8000–12000 m3 μ = 0.38÷0.42, k = 0.002÷0.003. For RAMMS model for dry avalanches of the volume of 2000–5000 m3 μ (dry friction coefficient = 0.35÷0.4, ξ (viscous friction coefficient = 1500÷2000 m/s2, and the volume 8,000–12,000 m3 μ = 0.3÷0.35, ξ = 2000÷3000 m/s2. For wet avalanches of the volume 12,000 m3 μ = 0.35, ξ = 1500 m/s2. The work on the calibration will be con‑ tinued to obtain the friction coefficients for the Eglit’s and RAMMS models. The additional data on real ava‑ lanches will be needed for this purpose.

  5. Multifactor-influenced energy consumption forecasting using enhanced back-propagation neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng, Yu-Rong; Zeng, Yi; Choi, Beomjin; Wang, Lin

    2017-01-01

    Reliable energy consumption forecasting can provide effective decision-making support for planning development strategies to energy enterprises and for establishing national energy policies. Accordingly, the present study aims to apply a hybrid intelligent approach named ADE–BPNN, the back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model supported by an adaptive differential evolution algorithm, to estimate energy consumption. Most often, energy consumption is influenced by socioeconomic factors. The proposed hybrid model incorporates gross domestic product, population, import, and export data as inputs. An improved differential evolution with adaptive mutation and crossover is utilized to find appropriate global initial connection weights and thresholds to enhance the forecasting performance of the BPNN. A comparative example and two extended examples are utilized to validate the applicability and accuracy of the proposed ADE–BPNN model. Errors of the test data sets indicate that the ADE–BPNN model can effectively predict energy consumption compared with the traditional back-propagation neural network model and other popular existing models. Moreover, mean impact value based analysis is conducted for electrical energy consumption in U.S. and total energy consumption forecasting in China to quantitatively explore the relative importance of each input variable for the improvement of effective energy consumption prediction. - Highlights: • Enhanced back-propagation neural network (ADE-BPNN) for energy consumption forecasting. • ADE-BPNN outperforms the current best models for two comparative cases. • Mean impact value approach explores socio-economic factors' relative importance. • ADE-BPNN's adjusted goodness-of-fit is 99.2% for China's energy consumption forecasting.

  6. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  7. Characterizing the nature and variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shandro, Bret; Haegeli, Pascal

    2018-04-01

    The snow and avalanche climate types maritime, continental and transitional are well established and have been used extensively to characterize the general nature of avalanche hazard at a location, study inter-seasonal and large-scale spatial variabilities and provide context for the design of avalanche safety operations. While researchers and practitioners have an experience-based understanding of the avalanche hazard associated with the three climate types, no studies have described the hazard character of an avalanche climate in detail. Since the 2009/2010 winter, the consistent use of Statham et al. (2017) conceptual model of avalanche hazard in public avalanche bulletins in Canada has created a new quantitative record of avalanche hazard that offers novel opportunities for addressing this knowledge gap. We identified typical daily avalanche hazard situations using self-organizing maps (SOMs) and then calculated seasonal prevalence values of these situations. This approach produces a concise characterization that is conducive to statistical analyses, but still provides a comprehensive picture that is informative for avalanche risk management due to its link to avalanche problem types. Hazard situation prevalence values for individual seasons, elevations bands and forecast regions provide unprecedented insight into the inter-seasonal and spatial variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada.

  8. A probabilistic model for snow avalanche occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perona, P.; Miescher, A.; Porporato, A.

    2009-04-01

    Avalanche hazard forecasting is an important issue in relation to the protection of urbanized environments, ski resorts and of ski-touring alpinists. A critical point is to predict the conditions that trigger the snow mass instability determining the onset and the size of avalanches. On steep terrains the risk of avalanches is known to be related to preceding consistent snowfall events and to subsequent changes in the local climatic conditions. Regression analysis has shown that avalanche occurrence indeed correlates to the amount of snow fallen in consecutive three snowing days and to the state of the settled snow at the ground. Moreover, since different type of avalanches may occur as a result of the interactions of different factors, the process of snow avalanche formation is inherently complex and with some degree of unpredictability. For this reason, although several models assess the risk of avalanche by accounting for all the involved processes with a great detail, a high margin of uncertainty invariably remains. In this work, we explicitly describe such an unpredictable behaviour with an intrinsic noise affecting the processes leading snow instability. Eventually, this sets the basis for a minimalist stochastic model, which allows us to investigate the avalanche dynamics and its statistical properties. We employ a continuous time process with stochastic jumps (snowfalls), deterministic decay (snowmelt and compaction) and state dependent avalanche occurrence (renewals) as a minimalist model for the determination of avalanche size and related intertime occurrence. The physics leading to avalanches is simplified to the extent where only meteorological data and terrain data are necessary to estimate avalanche danger. We explore the analytical formulation of the process and the properties of the probability density function of the avalanche process variables. We also discuss what is the probabilistic link between avalanche size and preceding snowfall event and

  9. Evaluating Forecasting Models for Unemployment Rates by Gender in Selected European Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ksenija Dumičić

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The unemployment can be considered as one of the main economic problems. The aim of this article is to examine the differences in male and female unemployment rates in selected European countries and to predict their future trends by using different statistical forecasting models. Furthermore, the impact of adding a new data point on the selection of the most appropriate statistical forecasting model and on the overall forecasting errors values is also evaluated. Male and female unemployment rates are observed for twelve European countries in the period from 1991 to 2014. Four statistical forecasting models have been selected and applied and the most appropriate model is considered to be the one with the lowest overall forecasting errors values. The analysis has shown that in the period from 1991 to 2014 the decreasing trend of unemployment rates in the short-run is forecasted for more Eastern Balkan than the EU-28 countries. An additional data point for male and female unemployment rates in 2014 led to somewhat smaller forecasting errors in more than half of the observed countries. However, the additional data point does not necessarily improve forecasting performances of the used statistical forecasting models.

  10. Time lapse photography as an approach to understanding glide avalanche activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendrikx, Jordy; Peitzsch, Erich H.; Fagre, Daniel B.

    2012-01-01

    Avalanches resulting from glide cracks are notoriously difficult to forecast, but are a recurring problem for numerous avalanche forecasting programs. In some cases glide cracks are observed to open and then melt away in situ. In other cases, they open and then fail catastrophically as large, full-depth avalanches. Our understanding and management of these phenomena are currently limited. It is thought that an increase in the rate of snow gliding occurs prior to full-depth avalanche activity so frequent observation of glide crack movement can provide an index of instability. During spring 2011 in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA, we began an approach to track glide crack avalanche activity using a time-lapse camera focused on a southwest facing glide crack. This crack melted in-situ without failing as a glide avalanche, while other nearby glide cracks on north through southeast aspects failed. In spring 2012, a camera was aimed at a large and productive glide crack adjacent to the Going to the Sun Road. We captured three unique glide events in the field of view. Unfortunately, all of them either failed very quickly, or during periods of obscured view, so measurements of glide rate could not be obtained. However, we compared the hourly meteorological variables during the period of glide activity to the same variables prior to glide activity. The variables air temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, incoming and reflected long wave radiation, SWE, total precipitation, and snow depth were found to be statistically different for our cases examined. We propose that these are some of the potential precursors for glide avalanche activity, but do urge caution in their use, due to the simple approach and small data set size. It is hoped that by introducing a workable method to easily record glide crack movement, combined with ongoing analysis of the associated meteorological data, we will improve our understanding of when, or if, glide avalanche activity will ensue.

  11. IFKIS - a basis for managing avalanche risk in settlements and on roads in Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Bründl

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available After the avalanche winter of 1999 in Switzerland, which caused 17 deaths and damage of over CHF 600 mill. in buildings and on roads, the project IFKIS, aimed at improving the basics of organizational measures (closure of roads, evacuation etc. in avalanche risk management, was initiated. The three main parts of the project were the development of a compulsory checklist for avalanche safety services, a modular education and training course program and an information system for safety services. The information system was developed in order to improve both the information flux between the national centre for avalanche forecasting, the Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, and the local safety services on the one hand and the communication between avalanche safety services in the communities on the other hand. The results of this project make a valuable contribution to strengthening organizational measures in avalanche risk management and to closing the gaps, which became apparent during the avalanche winter of 1999. They are not restricted to snow avalanches but can also be adapted for dealing with other natural hazard processes and catastrophes.

  12. Using GIS and Google Earth for the creation of the Going-to-the-Sun Road Avalanche Atlas, Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peitzsch, Erich H.; Fagre, Daniel B.; Dundas, Mark

    2010-01-01

    Snow avalanche paths are key geomorphologic features in Glacier National Park, Montana, and an important component of mountain ecosystems: they are isolated within a larger ecosystem, they are continuously disturbed, and they contain unique physical characteristics (Malanson and Butler, 1984). Avalanches impact subalpine forest structure and function, as well as overall biodiversity (Bebi et al., 2009). Because avalanches are dynamic phenomena, avalanche path geometry and spatial extent depend upon climatic regimes. The USGS/GNP Avalanche Program formally began in 2003 as an avalanche forecasting program for the spring opening of the ever-popular Going-to-the-Sun Road (GTSR), which crosses through 37 identified avalanche paths. Avalanche safety and forecasting is a necessary part of the GTSR spring opening procedures. An avalanche atlas detailing topographic parameters and oblique photographs was completed for the GTSR corridor in response to a request from GNP personnel for planning and resource management. Using ArcMap 9.2 GIS software, polygons were created for every avalanche path affecting the GTSR using aerial imagery, field-based observations, and GPS measurements of sub-meter accuracy. Spatial attributes for each path were derived within the GIS. Resulting products include an avalanche atlas book for operational use, a geoPDF of the atlas, and a Google Earth flyover illustrating each path and associated photographs. The avalanche atlas aids park management in worker safety, infrastructure planning, and natural resource protection by identifying avalanche path patterns and location. The atlas was created for operational and planning purposes and is also used as a foundation for research such as avalanche ecology projects and avalanche path runout modeling.

  13. Neural Networks-Based Forecasting Regarding the Convergence Process of CEE Countries to the Eurozone

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    Magdalena RĂDULESCU

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In the crisis frame, many forecasts failed to provide well determined ratios. What we tried to explain in this paper is how some selected Central and Eastern European countries will perform in the near future: Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Czech Republic, using neural networks- based forecasting model which we created for the nominal and real convergence ratios. As a methodology, we propose the forecasting based on artificial neural network (ANN, using the well-known software tool GMDH Shell. For each output variable, we obtain a forecast model, according to previous values and other input related variables, and we applied the model to all countries. Our forecasts are much closer to the partial results of 2013 in the analyzed countries than the European Commission’s or other international organizations’ forecasts. The results of the forecast are important both for governments to design their financial strategies and for the investors in these selected countries. According to our results, the Czech Republic seems to be closer to achieve its nominal convergence in the next two years, but it faces great difficulties in the real convergence area, because it did not overpass the recession.

  14. Forecasting outpatient visits using empirical mode decomposition coupled with back-propagation artificial neural networks optimized by particle swarm optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Daizheng; Wu, Zhihui

    2017-01-01

    Accurately predicting the trend of outpatient visits by mathematical modeling can help policy makers manage hospitals effectively, reasonably organize schedules for human resources and finances, and appropriately distribute hospital material resources. In this study, a hybrid method based on empirical mode decomposition and back-propagation artificial neural networks optimized by particle swarm optimization is developed to forecast outpatient visits on the basis of monthly numbers. The data outpatient visits are retrieved from January 2005 to December 2013 and first obtained as the original time series. Second, the original time series is decomposed into a finite and often small number of intrinsic mode functions by the empirical mode decomposition technique. Third, a three-layer back-propagation artificial neural network is constructed to forecast each intrinsic mode functions. To improve network performance and avoid falling into a local minimum, particle swarm optimization is employed to optimize the weights and thresholds of back-propagation artificial neural networks. Finally, the superposition of forecasting results of the intrinsic mode functions is regarded as the ultimate forecasting value. Simulation indicates that the proposed method attains a better performance index than the other four methods.

  15. Highly enhanced avalanche probability using sinusoidally-gated silicon avalanche photodiode

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suzuki, Shingo; Namekata, Naoto, E-mail: nnao@phys.cst.nihon-u.ac.jp; Inoue, Shuichiro [Institute of Quantum Science, Nihon University, 1-8-14 Kanda-Surugadai, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8308 (Japan); Tsujino, Kenji [Tokyo Women' s Medical University, 8-1 Kawada-cho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 162-8666 (Japan)

    2014-01-27

    We report on visible light single photon detection using a sinusoidally-gated silicon avalanche photodiode. Detection efficiency of 70.6% was achieved at a wavelength of 520 nm when an electrically cooled silicon avalanche photodiode with a quantum efficiency of 72.4% was used, which implies that a photo-excited single charge carrier in a silicon avalanche photodiode can trigger a detectable avalanche (charge) signal with a probability of 97.6%.

  16. A new solver for granular avalanche simulation: Indoor experiment verification and field scale case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, XiaoLiang; Li, JiaChun

    2017-12-01

    A new solver based on the high-resolution scheme with novel treatments of source terms and interface capture for the Savage-Hutter model is developed to simulate granular avalanche flows. The capability to simulate flow spread and deposit processes is verified through indoor experiments of a two-dimensional granular avalanche. Parameter studies show that reduction in bed friction enhances runout efficiency, and that lower earth pressure restraints enlarge the deposit spread. The April 9, 2000, Yigong avalanche in Tibet, China, is simulated as a case study by this new solver. The predicted results, including evolution process, deposit spread, and hazard impacts, generally agree with site observations. It is concluded that the new solver for the Savage-Hutter equation provides a comprehensive software platform for granular avalanche simulation at both experimental and field scales. In particular, the solver can be a valuable tool for providing necessary information for hazard forecasts, disaster mitigation, and countermeasure decisions in mountainous areas.

  17. Regional snow-avalanche detection using object-based image analysis of near-infrared aerial imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Korzeniowska

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Snow avalanches are destructive mass movements in mountain regions that continue to claim lives and cause infrastructural damage and traffic detours. Given that avalanches often occur in remote and poorly accessible steep terrain, their detection and mapping is extensive and time consuming. Nonetheless, systematic avalanche detection over large areas could help to generate more complete and up-to-date inventories (cadastres necessary for validating avalanche forecasting and hazard mapping. In this study, we focused on automatically detecting avalanches and classifying them into release zones, tracks, and run-out zones based on 0.25 m near-infrared (NIR ADS80-SH92 aerial imagery using an object-based image analysis (OBIA approach. Our algorithm takes into account the brightness, the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI, the normalised difference water index (NDWI, and its standard deviation (SDNDWI to distinguish avalanches from other land-surface elements. Using normalised parameters allows applying this method across large areas. We trained the method by analysing the properties of snow avalanches at three 4 km−2 areas near Davos, Switzerland. We compared the results with manually mapped avalanche polygons and obtained a user's accuracy of > 0.9 and a Cohen's kappa of 0.79–0.85. Testing the method for a larger area of 226.3 km−2, we estimated producer's and user's accuracies of 0.61 and 0.78, respectively, with a Cohen's kappa of 0.67. Detected avalanches that overlapped with reference data by > 80 % occurred randomly throughout the testing area, showing that our method avoids overfitting. Our method has potential for large-scale avalanche mapping, although further investigations into other regions are desirable to verify the robustness of our selected thresholds and the transferability of the method.

  18. SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC OUTPUT POWER FORECASTING USING BACK PROPAGATION NEURAL NETWORK

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    B. Jency Paulin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Solar Energy is an important renewable and unlimited source of energy. Solar photovoltaic power forecasting, is an estimation of the expected power production, that help the grid operators to better manage the electric balance between power demand and supply. Neural network is a computational model that can predict new outcomes from past trends. The artificial neural network is used for photovoltaic plant energy forecasting. The output power for solar photovoltaic cell is predicted on hourly basis. In historical dataset collection process, two dataset was collected and used for analysis. The dataset was provided with three independent attributes and one dependent attributes. The implementation of Artificial Neural Network structure is done by Multilayer Perceptron (MLP and training procedure for neural network is done by error Back Propagation (BP. In order to train and test the neural network, the datasets are divided in the ratio 70:30. The accuracy of prediction can be done by using various error measurement criteria and the performance of neural network is to be noted.

  19. STUDY ON SIMULATION METHOD OF AVALANCHE : FLOW ANALYSIS OF AVALANCHE USING PARTICLE METHOD

    OpenAIRE

    塩澤, 孝哉

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, modeling for the simulation of the avalanche by a particle method is discussed. There are two kinds of the snow avalanches, one is the surface avalanche which shows a smoke-like flow, and another is the total-layer avalanche which shows a flow like Bingham fluid. In the simulation of the surface avalanche, the particle method in consideration of a rotation resistance model is used. The particle method by Bingham fluid is used in the simulation of the total-layer avalanche. At t...

  20. The December 2008 Crammont rock avalanche, Mont Blanc massif area, Italy

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    P. Deline

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available We describe a 0.5 Mm3 rock avalanche that occurred in 2008 in the western Alps and discuss possible roles of controlling factors in the context of current climate change. The source is located between 2410 m and 2653 m a.s.l. on Mont Crammont and is controlled by a densely fractured rock structure. The main part of the collapsed rock mass deposited at the foot of the rock wall. A smaller part travelled much farther, reaching horizontal and vertical travel distances of 3050 m and 1560 m, respectively. The mobility of the rock mass was enhanced by channelization and snow. The rock-avalanche volume was calculated by comparison of pre- and post-event DTMs, and geomechanical characterization of the detachment zone was extracted from LiDAR point cloud processing. Back analysis of the rock-avalanche runout suggests a two stage event.

    There was no previous rock avalanche activity from the Mont Crammont ridge during the Holocene. The 2008 rock avalanche may have resulted from permafrost degradation in the steep rock wall, as suggested by seepage water in the scar after the collapse in spite of negative air temperatures, and modelling of rock temperatures that indicate warm permafrost (T > −2 °C.

  1. An empirical investigation on different methods of economic growth rate forecast and its behavior from fifteen countries across five continents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yip Chee; Hock-Eam, Lim

    2012-09-01

    Our empirical results show that we can predict GDP growth rate more accurately in continent with fewer large economies, compared to smaller economies like Malaysia. This difficulty is very likely positively correlated with subsidy or social security policies. The stage of economic development and level of competiveness also appears to have interactive effects on this forecast stability. These results are generally independent of the forecasting procedures. Countries with high stability in their economic growth, forecasting by model selection is better than model averaging. Overall forecast weight averaging (FWA) is a better forecasting procedure in most countries. FWA also outperforms simple model averaging (SMA) and has the same forecasting ability as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in almost all countries.

  2. Analysis of avalanche risk factors in backcountry terrain based on usage frequency and accident data in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Techel, F.; Zweifel, B.; Winkler, K.

    2015-09-01

    Recreational activities in snow-covered mountainous terrain in the backcountry account for the vast majority of avalanche accidents. Studies analyzing avalanche risk mostly rely on accident statistics without considering exposure (or the elements at risk), i.e., how many, when and where people are recreating, as data on recreational activity in the winter mountains are scarce. To fill this gap, we explored volunteered geographic information on two social media mountaineering websites - bergportal.ch and camptocamp.org. Based on these data, we present a spatiotemporal pattern of winter backcountry touring activity in the Swiss Alps and compare this with accident statistics. Geographically, activity was concentrated in Alpine regions relatively close to the main Swiss population centers in the west and north. In contrast, accidents occurred equally often in the less-frequented inner-alpine regions. Weekends, weather and avalanche conditions influenced the number of recreationists, while the odds to be involved in a severe avalanche accident did not depend on weekends or weather conditions. However, the likelihood of being involved in an accident increased with increasing avalanche danger level, but also with a more unfavorable snowpack containing persistent weak layers (also referred to as an old snow problem). In fact, the most critical situation for backcountry recreationists and professionals occurred on days and in regions when both the avalanche danger was critical and when the snowpack contained persistent weak layers. The frequently occurring geographical pattern of a more unfavorable snowpack structure also explains the relatively high proportion of accidents in the less-frequented inner-alpine regions. These results have practical implications: avalanche forecasters should clearly communicate the avalanche danger and the avalanche problem to the backcountry user, particularly if persistent weak layers are of concern. Professionals and recreationists, on the

  3. Avalanche hazard and control in Kazakhstan

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    V. P. Blagoveshchensky

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In Kazakhstan, area of 124 thousand km2 is prone to the avalanche hazard. Avalanches are released down in mountain regions situated along the eastern boundary of Kazakhstan. Systematic studies of avalanches here were started in 1958 by explorer I.S. Sosedov; later on, I.V. Seversky continued these investigations in Institute of Geography of the Kazakh Soviet Republic. Actually, he founded the Kazakh school of the avalanche studies. In 1970–1980s, five snow-avalanche stations operated in Kazakhstan: two in Il’ Alatau, two in Zhetysu Alatau, and one in the Altai. At the present time, only two stations and two snow-avalanche posts operate, and all of them are located in Il’ Alatau.Since 1951 to 2013, 75 avalanches took place in Kazakhstan, releases of them caused significant damages. For this period 172 people happened to be under avalanches, among them 86 perished. Large avalanche catastrophes causing human victims and destructions took place in Altai in 1977 and in Karatau in 1990. In spring of 1966, only in Il’ Alatau avalanches destroyed more 600 ha of mature fir (coniferous forest, and the total area of forest destroyed here by avalanches amounts to 2677 ha or 7% of the total forest area.For 48 years of the avalanche observations, there were 15 winters with increased avalanche activity in the river Almatinka basin when total volume of released snow exceeded annual mean value of 147 thousand m3. During this period, number of days with winter avalanches changed from three (in season of 1973/1974 to 28 (1986/1987, the average for a year is 16 days for a season. Winter with the total volume of snow 1300 thousand m3 occur once in 150 years. Individual avalanches with maximal volume of 350 thousand m3 happen once in 80 years.Preventive avalanche releases aimed at protection of roads and settlements are used in Kazakhstan since 1974. These precautions are taken in Il’ Alatau, Altai, and on Kalbinsky Range. Avalanches are released with the

  4. Spatial shape of avalanches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Zhaoxuan; Wiese, Kay Jörg

    2017-12-01

    In disordered elastic systems, driven by displacing a parabolic confining potential adiabatically slowly, all advance of the system is in bursts, termed avalanches. Avalanches have a finite extension in time, which is much smaller than the waiting time between them. Avalanches also have a finite extension ℓ in space, i.e., only a part of the interface of size ℓ moves during an avalanche. Here we study their spatial shape 〈S(x ) 〉 ℓ given ℓ , as well as its fluctuations encoded in the second cumulant 〈S2(x ) 〉 ℓ c. We establish scaling relations governing the behavior close to the boundary. We then give analytic results for the Brownian force model, in which the microscopic disorder for each degree of freedom is a random walk. Finally, we confirm these results with numerical simulations. To do this properly we elucidate the influence of discretization effects, which also confirms the assumptions entering into the scaling ansatz. This allows us to reach the scaling limit already for avalanches of moderate size. We find excellent agreement for the universal shape and its fluctuations, including all amplitudes.

  5. Application of a hybrid method combining grey model and back propagation artificial neural networks to forecast hepatitis B in china.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Ruijing; Chen, Xiaojun; Yan, Yu; Huang, Daizheng

    2015-01-01

    Accurate incidence forecasting of infectious disease provides potentially valuable insights in its own right. It is critical for early prevention and may contribute to health services management and syndrome surveillance. This study investigates the use of a hybrid algorithm combining grey model (GM) and back propagation artificial neural networks (BP-ANN) to forecast hepatitis B in China based on the yearly numbers of hepatitis B and to evaluate the method's feasibility. The results showed that the proposal method has advantages over GM (1, 1) and GM (2, 1) in all the evaluation indexes.

  6. Avalanches and Criticality in Driven Magnetic Skyrmions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz, S. A.; Reichhardt, C.; Arovas, D. P.; Saxena, A.; Reichhardt, C. J. O.

    2018-03-01

    We show using numerical simulations that slowly driven Skyrmions interacting with random pinning move via correlated jumps or avalanches. The avalanches exhibit power-law distributions in their duration and size, and the average avalanche shape for different avalanche durations can be scaled to a universal function, in agreement with theoretical predictions for systems in a nonequilibrium critical state. A distinctive feature of Skyrmions is the influence of the nondissipative Magnus term. When we increase the ratio of the Magnus term to the damping term, a change in the universality class of the behavior occurs, the average avalanche shape becomes increasingly asymmetric, and individual avalanches exhibit motion in the direction perpendicular to their own density gradient.

  7. The association between obesity and back pain in nine countries: a cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koyanagi, Ai; Stickley, Andrew; Garin, Noe; Miret, Marta; Ayuso-Mateos, Jose Luis; Leonardi, Matilde; Koskinen, Seppo; Galas, Aleksander; Haro, Josep Maria

    2015-02-11

    The association between obesity and back pain has mainly been studied in high-income settings with inconclusive results, and data from older populations and developing countries are scarce. The aim of this study was to assess this association in nine countries in Asia, Africa, Europe, and Latin America among older adults using nationally-representative data. Data on 42116 individuals ≥50 years who participated in the Collaborative Research on Ageing in Europe (COURAGE) study conducted in Finland, Poland, and Spain in 2011-2012, and the World Health Organization's Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) conducted in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa in 2007-2010 were analysed. Information on measured height and weight available in the two datasets was used to calculate Body Mass Index (BMI). Self-reported back pain occurring in the past 30 days was the outcome. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between BMI and back pain. The prevalence of back pain ranged from 21.5% (China) to 57.5% (Poland). In the multivariable analysis, compared to BMI 18.5-24.9 kg/m(2), significantly higher odds for back pain were observed for BMI ≥35 kg/m(2) in Finland (OR 3.33), Russia (OR 2.20), Poland (OR 2.03), Spain (OR 1.56), and South Africa (OR 1.48); BMI 30.0-34.0 kg/m(2) in Russia (OR 2.76), South Africa (OR 1.51), and Poland (OR 1.47); and BMI 25.0-29.9 kg/m(2) in Russia (OR 1.51) and Poland (OR 1.40). No significant associations were found in the other countries. The strength of the association between obesity and back pain may vary by country. Future studies are needed to determine the factors contributing to differences in the associations observed.

  8. Nano-multiplication region avalanche photodiodes and arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Xinyu (Inventor); Pain, Bedabrata (Inventor); Cunningham, Thomas J. (Inventor)

    2011-01-01

    An avalanche photodiode with a nano-scale reach-through structure comprising n-doped and p-doped regions, formed on a silicon island on an insulator, so that the avalanche photodiode may be electrically isolated from other circuitry on other silicon islands on the same silicon chip as the avalanche photodiode. For some embodiments, multiplied holes generated by an avalanche reduces the electric field in the depletion region of the n-doped and p-doped regions to bring about self-quenching of the avalanche photodiode. Other embodiments are described and claimed.

  9. Avalanches in insulating gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verhaart, H.F.A.

    1982-01-01

    Avalanches of charged particles in gases are often studied with the ''electrical method'', the measurement of the waveform of the current in the external circuit. In this thesis a substantial improvement of the time resolution of the measuring setup, to be used for the electrical method, is reported. The avalanche is started by an N 2 -laser with a pulse duration of only 0.6 ns. With this laser it is possible to release a high number of primary electrons (some 10 8 ) which makes it possible to obtain sizeable signals, even at low E/p values. With the setup it is possible to analyze current waveforms with a time resolution down to 1.4 ns, determined by both the laser and the measuring system. Furthermore it is possible to distinguish between the current caused by the electrons and the current caused by the ions in the avalanche and to monitor these currents simultaneously. Avalanche currents are measured in N 2 , CO 2 , O 2 , H 2 O, air of varying humidity, SF 6 and SF 6 /N 2 mixtures. Depending on the nature of the gas and the experimental conditions, processes as diffusion, ionization, attachment, detachment, conversion and secondary emission are observed. Values of parameters with which these processes can be described, are derived from an analysis of the current waveforms. For this analysis already published theories and new theories described in this thesis are used. The drift velocity of both the electrons and the ions could be easily determined from measured avalanche currents. Special attention is paid to avalanches in air becasue of the practical importance of air insulation. (Auth.)

  10. The Ebola contagion and forecasting virus: evidence from four African countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadhem, Selmi; Nejib, Hachicha D

    2015-12-01

    This paper is focused on examining the number of deaths' increases participation in the propagating the Ebola virus during the period ranging from March to October 2014. An application of the MGARCH-DCC model regressions on four countries has led to discover that the finding that human contact play a significant role in transmitting the Ebola virus. Our findings also reveal that Guinea has already suffered from a spread-like virus originating from Sierra Lione and Liberia. Noteworthy also, other countries are now liable to such a risk; for instance, Nigeria is a country vulnerable to the propagation of this virus. Consequently, we undertake to conduct our forecasts for EGARCH model estimates implements; which has estimated a decrease in the Ebola virus incurred number of deadly Ebola virus over the two months following the November and December.

  11. Application of a Hybrid Method Combining Grey Model and Back Propagation Artificial Neural Networks to Forecast Hepatitis B in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruijing Gan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate incidence forecasting of infectious disease provides potentially valuable insights in its own right. It is critical for early prevention and may contribute to health services management and syndrome surveillance. This study investigates the use of a hybrid algorithm combining grey model (GM and back propagation artificial neural networks (BP-ANN to forecast hepatitis B in China based on the yearly numbers of hepatitis B and to evaluate the method’s feasibility. The results showed that the proposal method has advantages over GM (1, 1 and GM (2, 1 in all the evaluation indexes.

  12. Effects of keV electron irradiation on the avalanche-electron generation rates of three donors on oxidized silicon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sah, C.; Sun, J.Y.; Tzou, J.J.

    1983-01-01

    After keV electron beam irradiation of oxidized silicon, the avalanche-electron-injection generation rates and densities of the bulk compensating donor, the interface states, and the turnaround trap all increase. Heating at 200 0 C can anneal out these three donor-like traps, however, it cannot restore the generation rates back to their original and lower pre-keV electron irradiation values. The experimental results also indicate that all three traps may be related to the same mobile impurity species whose bonds are loosened by the keV electrons and then broken or released by the avalanche injected electrons

  13. Gallium-based avalanche photodiode optical crosstalk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blazej, Josef; Prochazka, Ivan; Hamal, Karel; Sopko, Bruno; Chren, Dominik

    2006-01-01

    Solid-state single photon detectors based on avalanche photodiode are getting more attention in various areas of applied physics: optical sensors, quantum key distribution, optical ranging and Lidar, time-resolved spectroscopy, X-ray laser diagnostics, and turbid media imaging. Avalanche photodiodes specifically designed for single photon counting semiconductor avalanche structures have been developed on the basis of various materials: Si, Ge, GaP, GaAsP, and InGaP/InGaAs at the Czech Technical University in Prague during the last 20 years. They have been tailored for numerous applications. Trends in demand are focused on detection array construction recently. Even extremely small arrays containing a few cells are of great importance for users. Electrical crosstalk between individual gating and quenching circuits and optical crosstalk between individual detecting cells are serious limitation for array design and performance. Optical crosstalk is caused by the parasitic light emission of the avalanche which accompanies the photon detection process. We have studied in detail the optical emission of the avalanche photon counting structure in the silicon- and gallium-based photodiodes. The timing properties and spectral distribution of the emitted light have been measured for different operating conditions to quantify optical crosstalk. We conclude that optical crosstalk is an inherent property of avalanche photodiode operated in Geiger mode. The only way to minimize optical crosstalk in avalanche photodiode array is to build active quenching circuit with minimum response time

  14. Energy and dissipated work in snow avalanches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartelt, P.; Buser, O.

    2004-12-01

    Using the results of large scale avalanche experiments at the Swiss Vallée de la Sionne test site, the energy balance of several snow avalanches is determined. Avalanches convert approximately one-seventh of their potential energy into kinetic energy. The total potential energy depends strongly on the entrained snowcover, indicating that entrainment processes cannot be ignored when predicting terminal velocities and runout distances. We find energy dissipation rates on the order of 1 GW. Fluidization of the fracture slab can be identified in the experiments as an increase in dissipation rate, thereby explaining the initial and rapid acceleration of avalanches after release. Interestingly, the dissipation rates appear to be constant along the track, although large fluctuations in internal velocity exist. Thus, we can demonstrate within the context of non-equilibrium thermodynamics that -- in space -- granular snow avalanches are irreversible, dissipative systems that minimize entropy production because they appear to reach a steady-state non-equilibrium. A thermodynamic analysis reveals that fluctuations in velocity depend on the roughness of the flow surface and viscosity of the granular system. We speculate that this property explains the transition from flowing avalanches to powder avalanches.

  15. Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Roy Batchelor

    2007-01-01

    This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using parametric fixed effect panel regressions and nonparametric tests on accuracy ranks. We examine patterns across countries and forecasters to establish whether the bias reflects the inefficient use of i...

  16. Imaging findings of avalanche victims

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grosse, Alexandra B.; Grosse, Claudia A.; Anderson, Suzanne [University Hospital of Berne, Inselspital, Department of Diagnostic, Pediatric and Interventional Radiology, Berne (Switzerland); Steinbach, Lynne S. [University of California San Francisco, Department of Radiology, San Francisco, CA (United States); Zimmermann, Heinz [University Hospital of Berne, Inselspital, Department of Trauma and Emergency Medicine, Berne (Switzerland)

    2007-06-15

    Skiing and hiking outside the boundaries remains an attractive wilderness activity despite the danger of avalanches. Avalanches occur on a relatively frequent basis and may be devastating. Musculoskeletal radiologists should be acquainted with these injuries. Fourteen avalanche victims (11 men and 3 women; age range 17-59 years, mean age 37.4 years) were air transported to a high-grade trauma centre over a period of 2 years. Radiographs, CT and MR images were prospectively evaluated by two observers in consensus. Musculoskeletal findings (61%) were more frequent than extraskeletal findings (39%). Fractures were most commonly seen (36.6%), involving the spine (14.6%) more frequently than the extremities (9.8%). Blunt abdominal and thoracic trauma were the most frequent extraskeletal findings. A wide spectrum of injuries can be found in avalanche victims, ranging from extremity fractures to massive polytrauma. Asphyxia remains the main cause of death along with hypoxic brain injury and hypothermia. (orig.)

  17. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions based on a hybrid of mixed data sampling regression model and back propagation neural network in the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xin; Han, Meng; Ding, Lili; Calin, Adrian Cantemir

    2018-01-01

    The accurate forecast of carbon dioxide emissions is critical for policy makers to take proper measures to establish a low carbon society. This paper discusses a hybrid of the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regression model and BP (back propagation) neural network (MIDAS-BP model) to forecast carbon dioxide emissions. Such analysis uses mixed frequency data to study the effects of quarterly economic growth on annual carbon dioxide emissions. The forecasting ability of MIDAS-BP is remarkably better than MIDAS, ordinary least square (OLS), polynomial distributed lags (PDL), autoregressive distributed lags (ADL), and auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models. The MIDAS-BP model is suitable for forecasting carbon dioxide emissions for both the short and longer term. This research is expected to influence the methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide emissions by improving the forecast accuracy. Empirical results show that economic growth has both negative and positive effects on carbon dioxide emissions that last 15 quarters. Carbon dioxide emissions are also affected by their own change within 3 years. Therefore, there is a need for policy makers to explore an alternative way to develop the economy, especially applying new energy policies to establish a low carbon society.

  18. Measuring neuronal avalanches in disordered systems with absorbing states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girardi-Schappo, M.; Tragtenberg, M. H. R.

    2018-04-01

    Power-law-shaped avalanche-size distributions are widely used to probe for critical behavior in many different systems, particularly in neural networks. The definition of avalanche is ambiguous. Usually, theoretical avalanches are defined as the activity between a stimulus and the relaxation to an inactive absorbing state. On the other hand, experimental neuronal avalanches are defined by the activity between consecutive silent states. We claim that the latter definition may be extended to some theoretical models to characterize their power-law avalanches and critical behavior. We study a system in which the separation of driving and relaxation time scales emerges from its structure. We apply both definitions of avalanche to our model. Both yield power-law-distributed avalanches that scale with system size in the critical point as expected. Nevertheless, we find restricted power-law-distributed avalanches outside of the critical region within the experimental procedure, which is not expected by the standard theoretical definition. We remark that these results are dependent on the model details.

  19. Spatial determination of magnetic avalanche ignition points

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaafar, Reem; McHugh, S.; Suzuki, Yoko; Sarachik, M.P.; Myasoedov, Y.; Zeldov, E.; Shtrikman, H.; Bagai, R.; Christou, G.

    2008-01-01

    Using time-resolved measurements of local magnetization in the molecular magnet Mn 12 -ac, we report studies of magnetic avalanches (fast magnetization reversals) with non-planar propagating fronts, where the curved nature of the magnetic fronts is reflected in the time-of-arrival at micro-Hall sensors placed at the surface of the sample. Assuming that the avalanche interface is a spherical bubble that grows with a radius proportional to time, we are able to locate the approximate ignition point of each avalanche in a two-dimensional cross-section of the crystal. We find that although in most samples the avalanches ignite at the long ends, as found in earlier studies, there are crystals in which ignition points are distributed throughout an entire weak region near the center, with a few avalanches still originating at the ends

  20. Spatial determination of magnetic avalanche ignition points

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaafar, Reem; McHugh, S.; Suzuki, Yoko [Physics Department, City College of the City University of New York, New York, NY 10031 (United States); Sarachik, M.P. [Physics Department, City College of the City University of New York, New York, NY 10031 (United States)], E-mail: sarachik@sci.ccny.cuny.edu; Myasoedov, Y.; Zeldov, E.; Shtrikman, H. [Department Condensed Matter Physics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot 76100 (Israel); Bagai, R.; Christou, G. [Department of Chemistry, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 (United States)

    2008-03-15

    Using time-resolved measurements of local magnetization in the molecular magnet Mn{sub 12}-ac, we report studies of magnetic avalanches (fast magnetization reversals) with non-planar propagating fronts, where the curved nature of the magnetic fronts is reflected in the time-of-arrival at micro-Hall sensors placed at the surface of the sample. Assuming that the avalanche interface is a spherical bubble that grows with a radius proportional to time, we are able to locate the approximate ignition point of each avalanche in a two-dimensional cross-section of the crystal. We find that although in most samples the avalanches ignite at the long ends, as found in earlier studies, there are crystals in which ignition points are distributed throughout an entire weak region near the center, with a few avalanches still originating at the ends.

  1. Real time avalanche detection for high risk areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    Avalanches routinely occur on State Highway 21 (SH21) between Lowman and Stanley, Idaho each winter. The avalanches pose : a threat to the safety of maintenance workers and the traveling public. A real-time avalanche detection system will allow the :...

  2. Assessing the importance of terrain parameters on glide avalanche release

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peitzsch, E.; Hendrikx, J.; Fagre, D. B.

    2013-12-01

    Glide snow avalanches are dangerous and difficult to predict. Despite recent research there is still a lack of understanding regarding the controls of glide avalanche release. Glide avalanches often occur in similar terrain or the same locations annually and observations suggest that topography may be critical. Thus, to gain an understanding of the terrain component of these types of avalanches we examined terrain parameters associated with glide avalanche release as well as areas of consistent glide crack formation but no subsequent avalanches. Glide avalanche occurrences visible from the Going-to-the-Sun Road corridor in Glacier National Park, Montana from 2003-2013 were investigated using an avalanche database derived of daily observations each year from April 1 to June 15. This yielded 192 glide avalanches in 53 distinct avalanche paths. Each avalanche occurrence was digitized in a GIS using satellite, oblique, and aerial imagery as reference. Topographical parameters such as area, slope, aspect, elevation and elevation were then derived for the entire dataset utilizing GIS tools and a 10m DEM. Land surface substrate and surface geology were derived from National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring maps and U.S. Geological Survey surface geology maps, respectively. Surface roughness and glide factor were calculated using a four level classification index. . Then, each avalanche occurrence was aggregated to general avalanche release zones and the frequencies were compared. For this study, glide avalanches released in elevations ranging from 1300 to 2700 m with a mean aspect of 98 degrees (east) and a mean slope angle of 38 degrees. The mean profile curvature for all glide avalanches was 0.15 and a plan curvature of -0.01, suggesting a fairly linear surface (i.e. neither convex nor concave). The glide avalanches occurred in mostly bedrock made up of dolomite and limestone slabs and talus deposits with very few occurring in alpine meadows. However, not all glide

  3. Assessing the importance of terrain parameters on glide avalanche release

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peitzsch, Erich H.; Hendrikx, Jordy; Fagre, Daniel B.

    2014-01-01

    Glide snow avalanches are dangerous and difficult to predict. Despite recent research there is still a lack of understanding regarding the controls of glide avalanche release. Glide avalanches often occur in similar terrain or the same locations annually and observations suggest that topography may be critical. Thus, to gain an understanding of the terrain component of these types of avalanches we examined terrain parameters associated with glide avalanche release as well as areas of consistent glide crack formation but no subsequent avalanches. Glide avalanche occurrences visible from the Going-to-the-Sun Road corridor in Glacier National Park, Montana from 2003-2013 were investigated using an avalanche database derived of daily observations each year from April 1 to June 15. This yielded 192 glide avalanches in 53 distinct avalanche paths. Each avalanche occurrence was digitized in a GIS using satellite, oblique, and aerial imagery as reference. Topographical parameters such as area, slope, aspect, elevation and elevation were then derived for the entire dataset utilizing GIS tools and a 10m DEM. Land surface substrate and surface geology were derived from National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring maps and U.S. Geological Survey surface geology maps, respectively. Surface roughness and glide factor were calculated using a four level classification index. . Then, each avalanche occurrence was aggregated to general avalanche release zones and the frequencies were compared. For this study, glide avalanches released in elevations ranging from 1300 to 2700 m with a mean aspect of 98 degrees (east) and a mean slope angle of 38 degrees. The mean profile curvature for all glide avalanches was 0.15 and a plan curvature of -0.01, suggesting a fairly linear surface (i.e. neither convex nor concave). The glide avalanches occurred in mostly bedrock made up of dolomite and limestone slabs and talus deposits with very few occurring in alpine meadows. However, not all glide

  4. EXTREME WINTERS IN XX–XXI CENTURIES AS INDICATORS OF SNOWINESS AND AVALANCHE HAZARD IN THE PAST AND EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. D. Oleynikov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently, due to the global climate change and increasing frequency of weather events focus is on prediction of climate extremes. Large-scale meteorological anomalies can cause long-term paralysis of social and economic infrastructure of the major mountain regions and even individual states. In winter periods, these anomalies are associated with prolonged heavy snowfalls and associated with them catastrophic avalanches which cause significant social and economic damage. The climate system maintains a certain momentum during periods of adjustment and transition to other conditions in the ratio of heat and moisture and contains a climate «signal» of the climates of the past and the future. In our view seasonal and yearly extremes perform the role of these indicators, study of which enables for a deeper understanding and appreciation of the real situation of the climate periods related to the modern ones. The paper provides an overview of the criteria for selection of extreme winters. Identification of extremely cold winters during the period of instrumental observation and assessment of their snowiness and avalanche activity done for the Elbrus region, which is a model site for study of the avalanche regime in the Central Caucasus. The studies aim to identify the extreme winters in the Greater Caucasus, assess their frequency of occurrence, characterize the scale and intensity of the avalanche formation. The data obtained can be used to identify winter-analogues in the reconstruction and long-term forecast of avalanches

  5. Forecasting the spatial and seasonal dynamic of Aedes albopictus oviposition activity in Albania and Balkan countries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clément Tisseuil

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The increasing spread of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, in Europe and US raises public health concern due to the species competence to transmit several exotic human arboviruses, among which dengue, chikungunya and Zika, and urges the development of suitable modeling approach to forecast the spatial and temporal distribution of the mosquito. Here we developed a dynamical species distribution modeling approach forecasting Ae. albopictus eggs abundance at high spatial (0.01 degree WGS84 and temporal (weekly resolution over 10 Balkan countries, using temperature times series of Modis data products and altitude as input predictors. The model was satisfactorily calibrated and validated over Albania based observed eggs abundance data weekly monitored during three years. For a given week of the year, eggs abundance was mainly predicted by the number of eggs and the mean temperature recorded in the preceding weeks. That is, results are in agreement with the biological cycle of the mosquito, reflecting the effect temperature on eggs spawning, maturation and hatching. The model, seeded by initial egg values derived from a second model, was then used to forecast the spatial and temporal distribution of eggs abundance over the selected Balkan countries, weekly in 2011, 2012 and 2013. The present study is a baseline to develop an easy-handling forecasting model able to provide information useful for promoting active surveillance and possibly prevention of Ae. albopictus colonization in presently non-infested areas in the Balkans as well as in other temperate regions.

  6. The impact of implementing a demand forecasting system into a low-income country's supply chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Leslie E; Haidari, Leila A; Wateska, Angela R; Phillips, Roslyn J; Schmitz, Michelle M; Connor, Diana L; Norman, Bryan A; Brown, Shawn T; Welling, Joel S; Lee, Bruce Y

    2016-07-12

    To evaluate the potential impact and value of applications (e.g. adjusting ordering levels, storage capacity, transportation capacity, distribution frequency) of data from demand forecasting systems implemented in a lower-income country's vaccine supply chain with different levels of population change to urban areas. Using our software, HERMES, we generated a detailed discrete event simulation model of Niger's entire vaccine supply chain, including every refrigerator, freezer, transport, personnel, vaccine, cost, and location. We represented the introduction of a demand forecasting system to adjust vaccine ordering that could be implemented with increasing delivery frequencies and/or additions of cold chain equipment (storage and/or transportation) across the supply chain during varying degrees of population movement. Implementing demand forecasting system with increased storage and transport frequency increased the number of successfully administered vaccine doses and lowered the logistics cost per dose up to 34%. Implementing demand forecasting system without storage/transport increases actually decreased vaccine availability in certain circumstances. The potential maximum gains of a demand forecasting system may only be realized if the system is implemented to both augment the supply chain cold storage and transportation. Implementation may have some impact but, in certain circumstances, may hurt delivery. Therefore, implementation of demand forecasting systems with additional storage and transport may be the better approach. Significant decreases in the logistics cost per dose with more administered vaccines support investment in these forecasting systems. Demand forecasting systems have the potential to greatly improve vaccine demand fulfilment, and decrease logistics cost/dose when implemented with storage and transportation increases. Simulation modeling can demonstrate the potential health and economic benefits of supply chain improvements. Copyright

  7. Rock-avalanche dynamics revealed by large-scale field mapping and seismic signals at a highly mobile avalanche in the West Salt Creek valley, western Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coe, Jeffrey A.; Baum, Rex L.; Allstadt, Kate E.; Kochevar, Bernard; Schmitt, Robert G.; Morgan, Matthew L.; White, Jonathan L.; Stratton, Benjamin T.; Hayashi, Timothy A.; Kean, Jason W.

    2016-01-01

    On 25 May 2014, a rain-on-snow–induced rock avalanche occurred in the West Salt Creek valley on the northern flank of Grand Mesa in western Colorado (United States). The avalanche mobilized from a preexisting rock slide in the Green River Formation and traveled 4.6 km down the confined valley, killing three people. The avalanche was rare for the contiguous United States because of its large size (54.5 Mm3) and high mobility (height/length = 0.14). To understand the avalanche failure sequence, mechanisms, and mobility, we conducted a forensic analysis using large-scale (1:1000) structural mapping and seismic data. We used high-resolution, unmanned aircraft system imagery as a base for field mapping, and analyzed seismic data from 22 broadband stations (distances earth and tracked these forces using curves in the avalanche path. Our results revealed that the rock avalanche was a cascade of landslide events, rather than a single massive failure. The sequence began with an early morning landslide/debris flow that started ∼10 h before the main avalanche. The main avalanche lasted ∼3.5 min and traveled at average velocities ranging from 15 to 36 m/s. For at least two hours after the avalanche ceased movement, a central, hummock-rich core continued to move slowly. Since 25 May 2014, numerous shallow landslides, rock slides, and rock falls have created new structures and modified avalanche topography. Mobility of the main avalanche and central core was likely enhanced by valley floor material that liquefied from undrained loading by the overriding avalanche. Although the base was likely at least partially liquefied, our mapping indicates that the overriding avalanche internally deformed predominantly by sliding along discrete shear surfaces in material that was nearly dry and had substantial frictional strength. These results indicate that the West Salt Creek avalanche, and probably other long-traveled avalanches, could be modeled as two layers: a thin, liquefied

  8. Criticality and avalanches in neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zare, Marzieh; Grigolini, Paolo

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Temporal criticality is used as criticality indicator. • The Mittag–Leffler function is proposed as a proper form of temporal complexity. • The distribution of avalanche size becomes scale free in the supercritical state. • The scale-free distribution of avalanche sizes is an epileptic manifestation. -- Abstract: Experimental work, both in vitro and in vivo, reveals the occurrence of neural avalanches with an inverse power law distribution in size and time duration. These properties are interpreted as an evident manifestation of criticality, thereby suggesting that the brain is an operating near criticality complex system: an attractive theoretical perspective that according to Gerhard Werner may help to shed light on the origin of consciousness. However, a recent experimental observation shows no clear evidence for power-law scaling in awake and sleeping brain of mammals, casting doubts on the assumption that the brain works at criticality. This article rests on a model proposed by our group in earlier publications to generate neural avalanches with the time duration and size distribution matching the experimental results on neural networks. We now refine the analysis of the time distance between consecutive firing bursts and observe the deviation of the corresponding distribution from the Poisson statistics, as the system moves from the non-cooperative to the cooperative regime. In other words, we make the assumption that the genuine signature of criticality may emerge from temporal complexity rather than from the size and time duration of avalanches. We argue that the Mittag–Leffler (ML) exponential function is a satisfactory indicator of temporal complexity, namely of the occurrence of non-Poisson and renewal events. The assumption that the onset of criticality corresponds to the birth of renewal non-Poisson events establishes a neat distinction between the ML function and the power law avalanches generating regime. We find that

  9. The relationship between energy intensity and income levels: Forecasting long term energy demand in Asian emerging countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galli, R.; Univ. della Svizzera Italiana, Lugano

    1998-01-01

    This paper analyzes long-term trends in energy intensity for ten Asian emerging countries to test for a non-monotonic relationship between energy intensity and income in the author's sample. Energy demand functions are estimated during 1973--1990 using a quadratic function of log income. The long-run coefficient on squared income is found to be negative and significant, indicating a change in trend of energy intensity. The estimates are then used to evaluate a medium-term forecast of energy demand in the Asian countries, using both a log-linear and a quadratic model. It is found that in medium to high income countries the quadratic model performs better than the log-linear, with an average error of 9% against 43% in 1995. For the region as a whole, the quadratic model appears more adequate with a forecast error of 16% against 28% in 1995. These results are consistent with a process of dematerialization, which occurs as a result of a reduction of resource use per unit of GDP once an economy passes some threshold level of GDP per capita

  10. A forecast of typhoid conjugate vaccine introduction and demand in typhoid endemic low- and middle-income countries to support vaccine introduction policy and decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogasale, Vittal; Ramani, Enusa; Park, Il Yeon; Lee, Jung Seok

    2017-09-02

    A Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine (TCV) is expected to acquire WHO prequalification soon, which will pave the way for its use in many low- and middle-income countries where typhoid fever is endemic. Thus it is critical to forecast future vaccine demand to ensure supply meets demand, and to facilitate vaccine policy and introduction planning. We forecasted introduction dates for countries based on specific criteria and estimated vaccine demand by year for defined vaccination strategies in 2 scenarios: rapid vaccine introduction and slow vaccine introduction. In the rapid introduction scenario, we forecasted 17 countries and India introducing TCV in the first 5 y of the vaccine's availability while in the slow introduction scenario we forecasted 4 countries and India introducing TCV in the same time period. If the vaccine is targeting infants in high-risk populations as a routine single dose, the vaccine demand peaks around 40 million doses per year under the rapid introduction scenario. Similarly, if the vaccine is targeting infants in the general population as a routine single dose, the vaccine demand increases to 160 million doses per year under the rapid introduction scenario. The demand forecast projected here is an upper bound estimate of vaccine demand, where actual demand depends on various factors such as country priorities, actual vaccine introduction, vaccination strategies, Gavi financing, costs, and overall product profile. Considering the potential role of TCV in typhoid control globally; manufacturers, policymakers, donors and financing bodies should work together to ensure vaccine access through sufficient production capacity, early WHO prequalification of the vaccine, continued Gavi financing and supportive policy.

  11. Road safety forecasts in five European countries using structural time series models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoniou, Constantinos; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George

    2014-01-01

    Modeling road safety development is a complex task and needs to consider both the quantifiable impact of specific parameters as well as the underlying trends that cannot always be measured or observed. The objective of this research is to apply structural time series models for obtaining reliable medium- to long-term forecasts of road traffic fatality risk using data from 5 countries with different characteristics from all over Europe (Cyprus, Greece, Hungary, Norway, and Switzerland). Two structural time series models are considered: (1) the local linear trend model and the (2) latent risk time series model. Furthermore, a structured decision tree for the selection of the applicable model for each situation (developed within the Road Safety Data, Collection, Transfer and Analysis [DaCoTA] research project, cofunded by the European Commission) is outlined. First, the fatality and exposure data that are used for the development of the models are presented and explored. Then, the modeling process is presented, including the model selection process, introduction of intervention variables, and development of mobility scenarios. The forecasts using the developed models appear to be realistic and within acceptable confidence intervals. The proposed methodology is proved to be very efficient for handling different cases of data availability and quality, providing an appropriate alternative from the family of structural time series models in each country. A concluding section providing perspectives and directions for future research is presented.

  12. Monitoring and forecasting local landslide hazard in the area of Longyearbyen, Svalbard - early progress and experiences from the Autumn 2016 events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Thea; Krøgli, Ingeborg; Boje, Søren; Colleuille, Hervé

    2017-04-01

    Since 2013 the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) has operated a landslide early warning system (LEWS) for mainland Norway. The Svalbard islands, situated 800 km north of the Norwegian mainland, and 1200 km from the North Pole, are not part of the conventional early warning service. However, following the fatal snow avalanche event 19 Dec. 2015 in the settlement of Longyearbyen (78° north latitude), local authorities and the NVE have initiated monitoring of the hydro-meteorological conditions for the area of Longyearbyen, as an extraordinary precaution. Two operational forecasting teams from the NVE; the snow avalanche and the landslide hazard forecasters, perform hazard assessment related to snow avalanches, slush flows, debris flows, shallow slides and local flooding. This abstract will focus on recent experiences made by the landslide hazard team during the autumn 2016 landslide events, caused by a record setting wet and warm summer and autumn of 2016. The general concept of the Norwegian LEWS is based on frequency intervals of extreme hydro-meteorological conditions. This general concept has been transposed to the Longyearbyen area. Although the climate is considerably colder and drier than mainland Norway, experiences so far are positive and seem useful to the local authorities. Initially, the landslide hazard evaluation was intended to consider only slush flow hazard during the snow covered season. However, due to the extraordinary warm and wet summer and autumn 2016, the landslide hazard forecasters unexpectedly had to issue warnings for the local authorities due to increased risk of shallow landslides and debris flows. This was done in close cooperation with the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, who provided weather forecasts from the recently developed weather prediction model, AROME-Arctic. Two examples, from 14-15 Oct and 8-9 Nov 2016, will be given to demonstrate how the landslide hazard assessment for the Longyearbyen area is

  13. Avalanche photoconductive switching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pocha, M. D.; Druce, R. L.; Wilson, M. J.; Hofer, W. W.

    This paper describes work being done at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory on the avalanche mode of operation of laser triggered photoconductive switches. We have been able to generate pulses with amplitudes of 2 kV to 35 kV and rise times of 300 to 500 ps, and with a switching gain (energy of output electrical pulse vs energy of trigger optical pulse) of 10(exp 3) to over 10(exp 5). Switches with two very different physical configurations and with two different illumination wavelengths (1.06 micrometer, 890 nm) exhibit very similar behavior. The avalanche switching behavior, therefore, appears to be related to the material parameters rather than the optical wavelength or switch geometry. Considerable further work needs to be done to fully characterize and understand this mode of operation.

  14. Avalanche photoconductive switching

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pocha, M.D.; Druce, R.L.; Wilson, M.J.; Hofer, W.W.

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes work being done at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory on the avalanche mode of operation of laser triggered photoconductive switches. We have been able to generate pulses with amplitudes of 2 kV--35 kV and rise times of 300--500 ps, and with a switching gain (energy of output electrical pulse vs energy of trigger optical pulse) of 10{sup 3} to over 10{sup 5}. Switches with two very different physical configurations and with two different illumination wavelengths (1.06 {mu}m, 890 nm) exhibit very similar behavior. The avalanche switching behavior, therefore, appears to be related to the material parameters rather than the optical wavelength or switch geometry. Considerable further work needs to be done to fully characterize and understand this mode of operation. 3 refs., 6 figs.

  15. First approximations in avalanche model validations using seismic information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roig Lafon, Pere; Suriñach, Emma; Bartelt, Perry; Pérez-Guillén, Cristina; Tapia, Mar; Sovilla, Betty

    2017-04-01

    Avalanche dynamics modelling is an essential tool for snow hazard management. Scenario based numerical modelling provides quantitative arguments for decision-making. The software tool RAMMS (WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF) is one such tool, often used by government authorities and geotechnical offices. As avalanche models improve, the quality of the numerical results will depend increasingly on user experience on the specification of input (e.g. release and entrainment volumes, secondary releases, snow temperature and quality). New model developments must continue to be validated using real phenomena data, for improving performance and reliability. The avalanches group form University of Barcelona (RISKNAT - UB), has studied the seismic signals generated from avalanches since 1994. Presently, the group manages the seismic installation at SLF's Vallée de la Sionne experimental site (VDLS). At VDLS the recorded seismic signals can be correlated to other avalanche measurement techniques, including both advanced remote sensing methods (radars, videogrammetry) and obstacle based sensors (pressure, capacitance, optical sender-reflector barriers). This comparison between different measurement techniques allows the group to address the question if seismic analysis can be used alone, on more additional avalanche tracks, to gain insight and validate numerical avalanche dynamics models in different terrain conditions. In this study, we aim to add the seismic data as an external record of the phenomena, able to validate RAMMS models. The seismic sensors are considerable easy and cheaper to install than other physical measuring tools, and are able to record data from the phenomena in every atmospheric conditions (e.g. bad weather, low light, freezing make photography, and other kind of sensors not usable). With seismic signals, we record the temporal evolution of the inner and denser parts of the avalanche. We are able to recognize the approximate position

  16. Anthropogenic effect on avalanche and debris flow activity

    OpenAIRE

    S. A. Sokratov; Yu. G. Seliverstov; A. L. Shnyparkov; K. P. Koltermann

    2013-01-01

    The paper presents examples of the change in snow avalanches and debris flows activity due to the anthropogenic pressure on vegetation and relief. The changes in dynamical characteristics of selected snow avalanches and debris flows due to the anthropogenic activity are quantified. The conclusion is made that the anthropogenic effects on the snow avalanches and debris flows activity are more pronounced than the possible effects of the climate change. The necessity is expressed on the unavoida...

  17. Dealing with the white death: avalanche risk management for traffic routes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rheinberger, Christoph M; Bründl, Michael; Rhyner, Jakob

    2009-01-01

    This article discusses mitigation strategies to protect traffic routes from snow avalanches. Up to now, mitigation of snow avalanches on many roads and railways in the Alps has relied on avalanche sheds, which require large initial investments resulting in high opportunity costs. Therefore, avalanche risk managers have increasingly adopted organizational mitigation measures such as warning systems and closure policies instead. The effectiveness of these measures is, however, greatly dependent on human decisions. In this article, we present a method for optimizing avalanche mitigation for traffic routes in terms of both their risk reduction impact and their net benefit to society. First, we introduce a generic framework for assessing avalanche risk and for quantifying the impact of mitigation. This allows for sound cost-benefit comparisons between alternative mitigation strategies. Second, we illustrate the framework with a case study from Switzerland. Our findings suggest that site-specific characteristics of avalanche paths, as well as the economic importance of a traffic route, are decisive for the choice of optimal mitigation strategies. On routes endangered by few avalanche paths with frequent avalanche occurrences, structural measures are most efficient, whereas reliance on organizational mitigation is often the most appropriate strategy on routes endangered by many paths with infrequent or fuzzy avalanche risk. Finally, keeping a traffic route open may be very important for tourism or the transport industry. Hence, local economic value may promote the use of a hybrid strategy that combines organizational and structural measures to optimize the resource allocation of avalanche risk mitigation.

  18. Statistics of Electron Avalanches and Streamers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Ficker

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We have studied the severe systematic deviations of populations of electron avalanches from the Furry distribution, which has been held to be the statistical law corresponding to them, and a possible explanation has been sought. A  new theoretical concept based on fractal avalanche multiplication has been proposed and is shown to be a convenient candidate for explaining these deviations from Furry statistics. 

  19. An improved design for AlGaN solar-blind avalanche photodiodes with enhanced avalanche ionization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang Yin; Cai Qing; Chen Dun-Jun; Lu Hai; Zhang Rong; Zheng You-Dou; Yang Lian-Hong; Dong Ke-Xiu

    2017-01-01

    To enhance the avalanche ionization, we designed a new separate absorption and multiplication AlGaN solar-blind avalanche photodiode (APD) by using a high/low-Al-content AlGaN heterostructure as the multiplication region instead of the conventional AlGaN homogeneous layer. The calculated results show that the designed APD with Al 0.3 Ga 0.7 N/Al 0.45 Ga 0.55 N heterostructure multiplication region exhibits a 60% higher gain than the conventional APD and a smaller avalanche breakdown voltage due to the use of the low-Al-content Al 0.3 Ga 0.7 N which has about a six times higher hole ionization coefficient than the high-Al-content Al 0.45 Ga 0.55 N. Meanwhile, the designed APD still remains a good solar-blind characteristic by introducing a quarter-wave AlGaN/AlN distributed Bragg reflectors structure at the bottom of the device. (paper)

  20. The effects of common medical interventions on pain, back function, and work resumption in patients with chronic low back pain: A prospective 2-year cohort study in six countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, T H; Hansson, E K

    2000-12-01

    A prospective cohort study with identical questionnaires and inclusion criteria was performed. To compare in six different countries the frequencies and effects of the common medical interventions used for patients with low back pain who are work incapacitated. Low back pain is a huge problem with increasing costs for health care, industry, and society. Cohorts of employed men and women ages 18 to 59 years who had been sick-listed (100%) for a minimum of 90 days because of low back pain were recruited in Denmark, Germany, Israel, Sweden, the Netherlands, and the United States. The subjects received three separate questionnaires with identical questions after 90 days, 1 year, and 2 years. The questionnaires included separate questions about background factors, treatment, and the like, as well as validated scales such as the Hannover Activities of Daily Living, von Korff pain score, Short Form-36, and Karasek-Theorell. Working status was obtained from registers. Main outcome measures were working/not working, back function, and pain. All three questionnaires were completed by 2080 subjects in the six countries. With few exceptions, there were great similarities in the appointments, examinations, and treatments in the different countries. Considerable differences were found between the back surgery rates, which ranged from 6% in Sweden to 32% in the United States during the first 90 days of the study. Very few of the interventions had any noticeable positive effects on work resumption, pain, or back function. Back surgery in Sweden was a striking exception, positively affecting all three outcome measures. The frequencies of work resumption within the first year ranged from 73% in the Netherlands to 32% in Denmark. Almost none of the commonly occurring and frequently practiced medical interventions for patients who are sick-listed because of low back pain had any positive effects on either the recorded health measures or work resumption.

  1. Transient events in bright debris discs: Collisional avalanches revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thebault, P.; Kral, Q.

    2018-01-01

    Context. A collisional avalanche is set off by the breakup of a large planetesimal, releasing vast amounts of small unbound grains that enter a debris disc located further away from the star, triggering there a collisional chain reaction that could potentially create detectable transient structures. Aims: We investigate this mechanism, using for the first time a fully self-consistent code coupling dynamical and collisional evolutions. We also quantify for the first time the photometric evolution of the system and investigate whether or not avalanches could explain the short-term luminosity variations recently observed in some extremely bright debris discs. Methods: We use the state-of-the-art LIDT-DD code. We consider an avalanche-favoring A6V star, and two set-ups: a "cold disc" case, with a dust release at 10 au and an outer disc extending from 50 to 120 au, and a "warm disc" case with the release at 1 au and a 5-12 au outer disc. We explore, in addition, two key parameters: the density (parameterized by its optical depth τ) of the main outer disc and the amount of dust released by the initial breakup. Results: We find that avalanches could leave detectable structures on resolved images, for both "cold" and "warm" disc cases, in discs with τ of a few 10-3, provided that large dust masses (≳1020-5 × 1022 g) are initially released. The integrated photometric excess due to an avalanche is relatively limited, less than 10% for these released dust masses, peaking in the λ 10-20 μm domain and becoming insignificant beyond 40-50 μm. Contrary to earlier studies, we do not obtain stronger avalanches when increasing τ to higher values. Likewise, we do not observe a significant luminosity deficit, as compared to the pre-avalanche level, after the passage of the avalanche. These two results concur to make avalanches an unlikely explanation for the sharp luminosity drops observed in some extremely bright debris discs. The ideal configuration for observing an

  2. Snow Avalanche Disturbance Ecology: Examples From the San Juan Mountains, Colorado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonson, S.; Fassnacht, S. R.

    2008-12-01

    We evaluated landscape ecology approaches to characterize snow avalanche paths based on patterns of plant species composition and evidence of disturbance. Historical records of avalanche incidents, patterns in the annual growth layers of woody plants, and distributions of plant species can be used to quantify and map the frequency and magnitude of snow slide events. Near Silverton, Colorado, a series of snow storms in January of 2005 resulted in many avalanche paths running full track at 30 and 100 year return frequency. Many avalanches cut fresh trimlines, widening their tracks by uprooting, stripping, and breaking mature trees. Powerful avalanches deposited massive piles of snow, rocks, and woody debris in their runout zones. We used cross-section discs and cores of representative downed trees to detect dendro-ecological signals of past snow avalanche disturbance. Avalanche signals included impact scars from the moving snow and associated wind blast, relative width of annual growth rings, and development of reaction wood in response to tilting. Initial measurements of plant diversity and disturbance along the elevation gradient of an avalanche path near Silverton indicate that avalanche activity influences patterns of forest cover, contributes to the high local plant species diversity, and provides opportunities for new seedling establishment.

  3. SNOW AVALANCHE ACTIVITY IN PARÂNG SKI AREA REVEALED BY TREE-RINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. MESEȘAN

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Snow Avalanche Activity in Parâng Ski Area Revealed by Tree-Rings. Snow avalanches hold favorable conditions to manifest in Parâng Mountains but only one event is historically known, without destructive impact upon infrastructure or fatalities and this region wasn’t yet the object of avalanche research. The existing ski infrastructure of Parâng resort located in the west of Parâng Mountains is proposed to be extended in the steep slopes of subalpine area. Field evidence pinpoints that these steep slopes were affected by snow avalanches in the past. In this study we analyzed 11 stem discs and 31 increment cores extracted from 22 spruces (Picea abies (L. Karst impacted by avalanches, in order to obtain more information about past avalanches activity. Using the dendrogeomorphological approach we found 13 avalanche events that occurred along Scărița avalanche path, since 1935 until 2012, nine of them produced in the last 20 years. The tree-rings data inferred an intense snow avalanche activity along this avalanche path. This study not only calls for more research in the study area but also proves that snow avalanches could constitute an important restrictive factor for the tourism infrastructure and related activities in the area. It must be taken into consideration by the future extension of tourism infrastructure. Keywords: snow avalanche, Parâng Mountains, dendrogeomorphology, ski area.

  4. Cosmogenic Nuclide Exposure Dating of the Tiltill Rock Avalanche, Yosemite National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, K. R.; Pluhar, C. J.; Stone, J. O.; Stock, G. M.; Zimmerman, S. R.

    2013-12-01

    Yosemite National Park serves as an excellent natural laboratory for studying rock falls and rock avalanches because these are the main processes modifying the nearly vertical slopes of this recently glaciated landscape. Mass wasting represents a significant hazard in the region and the database of previous rock falls and other mass wasting events in Yosemite is extensive, dating back to the mid-1800s. However, this record is too short to capture the recurrence characteristics and triggering mechanisms of the very largest events, necessitating studies of the geologic record of mass wasting. Rock falls and rock avalanches are readily dated by cosmogenic nuclide methods due to their instantaneous formation, and results can be tied to triggering events such as seismic activity (e.g. Stock et al., 2009). Here, we apply exposure dating to the Holocene Tiltill rock avalanche north of Hetch Hetchy Reservoir. The deposit comprises what appear to be two separate lobes of rock and debris, yielding a total volume of ~3.1 x 106 m3. Assuming an erosion rate of 0.0006 cm/yr and neglecting snowpack shielding, preliminary data suggest a mean exposure age of 11,000 + 600 year B.P. for both deposits, indicating that they were emplaced in a single event. The age of the Tiltill 'slide' is similar to earthquakes on the Owens Valley Fault between 10,800 + 600 and 10,200 + 200 cal year B.P. (Bacon, 2007) and the White Mountain Fault, ~10,000 cal year B.P. (Reheis, 1996; DePolo, 1989). Given that movement on the Owens Valley fault in 1872 caused a number of rock falls in Yosemite and the coincidence of ages between the Tiltill 'slide' and paleoseismic events, a large earthquake in Eastern Sierra Nevada may have triggered this event. Other trigger events are also possibilities, but only through compilation of a database of large rock avalanches can statistically significant groupings of events begin to demonstrate whether seismic triggering is a dominant process.

  5. Relating rock avalanche morphology to emplacement processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dufresne, Anja; Prager, Christoph; Bösmeier, Annette

    2015-04-01

    The morphology, structure and sedimentological characteristics of rock avalanche deposits reflect both internal emplacement processes and external influences, such as runout path characteristics. The latter is mainly predisposed by topography, substrate types, and hydrogeological conditions. Additionally, the geological setting at the source slope controls, e.g. the spatial distribution of accumulated lithologies and hence material property-related changes in morphology, or the maximum clast size and amount of fines of different lithological units. The Holocene Tschirgant rock avalanche (Tyrol, Austria) resulted from failure of an intensely deformed carbonate rock mass on the southeast face of a 2,370-m-high mountain ridge. The initially sliding rock mass rapidly fragmented as it moved towards the floor of the Inn River valley. Part of the 200-250 x 106 m3 (Patzelt 2012) rock avalanche debris collided with and moved around an opposing bedrock ridge and flowed into the Ötz valley, reaching up to 6.3 km from source. Where the Tschirgant rock avalanche spread freely it formed longitudinal ridges aligned along motion direction as well as smaller hummocks. Encountering high topography, it left runup ridges, fallback patterns (i.e. secondary collapse), and compressional morphology (successively elevated, transverse ridges). Further evidence for the mechanical landslide behaviour is given by large volumes of mobilized valley-fill sediments (polymict gravels and sands). These sediments indicate both shearing and compressional faulting within the rock avalanche mass (forming their own morphological units through, e.g. in situ bulldozing or as distinctly different hummocky terrain), but also indicate extension of the spreading landslide mass (i.e. intercalated/injected gravels encountered mainly in morphological depressions between hummocks). Further influences on its morphology are given by the different lithological units. E.g. the transition from massive dolomite

  6. Forecasting Method for Urban Rail Transit Ridership at Station Level Using Back Propagation Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junfang Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Direct forecasting method for Urban Rail Transit (URT ridership at the station level is not able to reflect nonlinear relationship between ridership and its predictors. Also, population is inappropriately expressed in this method since it is not uniformly distributed by area. In this paper, a new variable, population per distance band, is considered and a back propagation neural network (BPNN model which can reflect nonlinear relationship between ridership and its predictors is proposed to forecast ridership. Key predictors are obtained through partial correlation analysis. The performance of the proposed model is compared with three other benchmark models, which are linear model with population per distance band, BPNN model with total population, and linear model with total population, using four measures of effectiveness (MOEs, maximum relative error (MRE, smallest relative error (SRE, average relative error (ARE, and mean square root of relative error (MSRRE. Also, another model for contribution rate of population per distance band to ridership is formulated based on the BPNN model with nonpopulation variables fixed. Case studies with Japanese data show that BPNN model with population per distance band outperforms other three models and the contribution rate of population within special distance band to ridership calculated through the contribution rate model is 70%~92.9% close to actual statistical value. The result confirms the effectiveness of models proposed in this paper.

  7. Forecasting Urban Air Quality via a Back-Propagation Neural Network and a Selection Sample Rule

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonghong Liu

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, based on a sample selection rule and a Back Propagation (BP neural network, a new model of forecasting daily SO2, NO2, and PM10 concentration in seven sites of Guangzhou was developed using data from January 2006 to April 2012. A meteorological similarity principle was applied in the development of the sample selection rule. The key meteorological factors influencing SO2, NO2, and PM10 daily concentrations as well as weight matrices and threshold matrices were determined. A basic model was then developed based on the improved BP neural network. Improving the basic model, identification of the factor variation consistency was added in the rule, and seven sets of sensitivity experiments in one of the seven sites were conducted to obtain the selected model. A comparison of the basic model from May 2011 to April 2012 in one site showed that the selected model for PM10 displayed better forecasting performance, with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE values decreasing by 4% and R2 values increasing from 0.53 to 0.68. Evaluations conducted at the six other sites revealed a similar performance. On the whole, the analysis showed that the models presented here could provide local authorities with reliable and precise predictions and alarms about air quality if used at an operational scale.

  8. Investigations of single-electron avalanches in a proportional drift tube

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, W.S.; Armitage, J.C.; Chevreau, P.; Heinrich, J.G.; Lu, C.; McDonald, I.; McDonald, K.T.; Miller, B.; Secrest, D.; Weckel, J.

    1990-01-01

    Detailed information on single-electron drift and avalanche behavior has a basic interest in an investigation of gas-chamber performance. Its timing, avalanche distribution, attachment by the working gas mixtures, etc., provide various criteria for choosing the best suitable gas mixture under a specific experimental circumstance. Investigations of single-electron avalanches in a proportional drift tube have been carried out with a pulsed N 2 laser. The study consists of two aspects: timing properties, and fluctuations in the gas avalanche

  9. Terrain Classification of Norwegian Slab Avalanche Accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallandvik, Linda; Aadland, Eivind; Vikene, Odd Lennart

    2016-01-01

    It is difficult to rely on snow conditions, weather, and human factors when making judgments about avalanche risk because these variables are dynamic and complex; terrain, however, is more easily observed and interpreted. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate (1) the type of terrain in which historical fatal snow avalanche accidents in Norway…

  10. Bayesian inference in mass flow simulations - from back calculation to prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kofler, Andreas; Fischer, Jan-Thomas; Hellweger, Valentin; Huber, Andreas; Mergili, Martin; Pudasaini, Shiva; Fellin, Wolfgang; Oberguggenberger, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Mass flow simulations are an integral part of hazard assessment. Determining the hazard potential requires a multidisciplinary approach, including different scientific fields such as geomorphology, meteorology, physics, civil engineering and mathematics. An important task in snow avalanche simulation is to predict process intensities (runout, flow velocity and depth, ...). The application of probabilistic methods allows one to develop a comprehensive simulation concept, ranging from back to forward calculation and finally to prediction of mass flow events. In this context optimized parameter sets for the used simulation model or intensities of the modeled mass flow process (e.g. runout distances) are represented by probability distributions. Existing deterministic flow models, in particular with respect to snow avalanche dynamics, contain several parameters (e.g. friction). Some of these parameters are more conceptual than physical and their direct measurement in the field is hardly possible. Hence, parameters have to be optimized by matching simulation results to field observations. This inverse problem can be solved by a Bayesian approach (Markov chain Monte Carlo). The optimization process yields parameter distributions, that can be utilized for probabilistic reconstruction and prediction of avalanche events. Arising challenges include the limited amount of observations, correlations appearing in model parameters or observed avalanche characteristics (e.g. velocity and runout) and the accurate handling of ensemble simulations, always taking into account the related uncertainties. Here we present an operational Bayesian simulation framework with r.avaflow, the open source GIS simulation model for granular avalanches and debris flows.

  11. Discrimination capability of avalanche counters detecting different ionizing particles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prete, G.; Viesti, G.; Padua Univ.

    1985-01-01

    The discrimination capability of avalanche counters to detect different ionizing particles has been studied using a 252 Cf source. Pulse height, pulse-height resolution and timing properties have been measured as a function of the reduced applied voltage for parallel-plate and parallel-grid avalanche counters. At the highest applied voltages, space charge effects shift the pulse-height signal of the avalanche counter away from being linearly proportional to the stopping power of the detected particles and cause the pulse-height resolution to deteriorate. To optimize the avalanche counter capability, without loss of time resolution, it appears better to operate the detector at voltages well below the breakdown threshold. Measurements with 32 S ions are also reported. (orig.)

  12. Statistical evaluation of waveform collapse reveals scale-free properties of neuronal avalanches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleena eShaukat

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Neural avalanches are a prominent form of brain activity characterized by network-wide bursts whose statistics follow a power-law distribution with a slope near 3/2. Recent work suggests that avalanches of different durations can be rescaled and thus collapsed together. This collapse mirrors work in statistical physics where it is proposed to form a signature of systems evolving in a critical state. However, no rigorous statistical test has been proposed to examine the degree to which neuronal avalanches collapse together. Here, we describe a statistical test based on functional data analysis, where raw avalanches are first smoothed with a Fourier basis, then rescaled using a time-warping function. Finally, an F ratio test combined with a bootstrap permutation is employed to determine if avalanches collapse together in a statistically reliable fashion. To illustrate this approach, we recorded avalanches from cortical cultures on multielectrode arrays as in previous work. Analyses show that avalanches of various durations can be collapsed together in a statistically robust fashion. However, a principal components analysis revealed that the offset of avalanches resulted in marked variance in the time-warping function, thus arguing for limitations to the strict fractal nature of avalanche dynamics. We compared these results with those obtained from cultures treated with an AMPA/NMDA receptor antagonist (APV/DNQX, which yield a power-law of avalanche durations with a slope greater than 3/2. When collapsed together, these avalanches showed marked misalignments both at onset and offset time-points. In sum, the proposed statistical evaluation suggests the presence of scale-free avalanche waveforms and constitutes an avenue for examining critical dynamics in neuronal systems.

  13. Avalanche and streamer mode operation of resistive plate chambers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cardarelli, R.; Makeev, V.; Santonico, R.

    1996-01-01

    A resistive plate chamber was operated at voltages increasing in steps of 200 V over a 3 kV interval and the transition between the avalanche and streamer modes was studied. The avalanche amplitude was observed to be exponentially dependent on the operating voltage up to a value, characteristic of the gas, where the avalanche saturation occurs and delayed streamer signals start to appear. Signal waveforms, charge and timing distributions are reported. (orig.)

  14. Avalanche localization and its effects in proportional counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, J.; Okuno, H.; Walenta, A.H.

    1977-11-01

    Avalanche development around the anode wire in a gas proportional counter is investigated. In the region of proportional gas amplification, the avalanche is found to be well localized on one side of the anode wire, where the electrons arrive along the field lines from the point of primary ionization. Induced signals on electrodes surrounding the anode wire are used to measure the azimuthal position of the avalanche on the anode wire. Practical applications of the phenomena such as left-right assignment in drift chambers and measurement of the angular direction of the primary ionization electrons drifting towards the anode wire are discussed

  15. Automated identification of potential snow avalanche release areas based on digital elevation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Bühler

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The identification of snow avalanche release areas is a very difficult task. The release mechanism of snow avalanches depends on many different terrain, meteorological, snowpack and triggering parameters and their interactions, which are very difficult to assess. In many alpine regions such as the Indian Himalaya, nearly no information on avalanche release areas exists mainly due to the very rough and poorly accessible terrain, the vast size of the region and the lack of avalanche records. However avalanche release information is urgently required for numerical simulation of avalanche events to plan mitigation measures, for hazard mapping and to secure important roads. The Rohtang tunnel access road near Manali, Himachal Pradesh, India, is such an example. By far the most reliable way to identify avalanche release areas is using historic avalanche records and field investigations accomplished by avalanche experts in the formation zones. But both methods are not feasible for this area due to the rough terrain, its vast extent and lack of time. Therefore, we develop an operational, easy-to-use automated potential release area (PRA detection tool in Python/ArcGIS which uses high spatial resolution digital elevation models (DEMs and forest cover information derived from airborne remote sensing instruments as input. Such instruments can acquire spatially continuous data even over inaccessible terrain and cover large areas. We validate our tool using a database of historic avalanches acquired over 56 yr in the neighborhood of Davos, Switzerland, and apply this method for the avalanche tracks along the Rohtang tunnel access road. This tool, used by avalanche experts, delivers valuable input to identify focus areas for more-detailed investigations on avalanche release areas in remote regions such as the Indian Himalaya and is a precondition for large-scale avalanche hazard mapping.

  16. Automated identification of potential snow avalanche release areas based on digital elevation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bühler, Y.; Kumar, S.; Veitinger, J.; Christen, M.; Stoffel, A.; Snehmani

    2013-05-01

    The identification of snow avalanche release areas is a very difficult task. The release mechanism of snow avalanches depends on many different terrain, meteorological, snowpack and triggering parameters and their interactions, which are very difficult to assess. In many alpine regions such as the Indian Himalaya, nearly no information on avalanche release areas exists mainly due to the very rough and poorly accessible terrain, the vast size of the region and the lack of avalanche records. However avalanche release information is urgently required for numerical simulation of avalanche events to plan mitigation measures, for hazard mapping and to secure important roads. The Rohtang tunnel access road near Manali, Himachal Pradesh, India, is such an example. By far the most reliable way to identify avalanche release areas is using historic avalanche records and field investigations accomplished by avalanche experts in the formation zones. But both methods are not feasible for this area due to the rough terrain, its vast extent and lack of time. Therefore, we develop an operational, easy-to-use automated potential release area (PRA) detection tool in Python/ArcGIS which uses high spatial resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) and forest cover information derived from airborne remote sensing instruments as input. Such instruments can acquire spatially continuous data even over inaccessible terrain and cover large areas. We validate our tool using a database of historic avalanches acquired over 56 yr in the neighborhood of Davos, Switzerland, and apply this method for the avalanche tracks along the Rohtang tunnel access road. This tool, used by avalanche experts, delivers valuable input to identify focus areas for more-detailed investigations on avalanche release areas in remote regions such as the Indian Himalaya and is a precondition for large-scale avalanche hazard mapping.

  17. Forecasting water demand using back propagation networks in the operation of reservoirs in the citarum cascade, west java, indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mulya R. Mashudi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the use of Neural Networks (NN as a potential means of more accurately forecasting water demand in the Citarum River basin cascade. Neural Networks have the ability to recognise nonlinear patterns when sufficiently trained with historical data. The study constructs a NN model of the cascade, based on Back Propagation Networks (BPN. Data representing physical characteristics and meteorological conditions in the Citarum River basin from 1989 through 1995 were used to train the BPN. Nonlinear activation functions (sigmoid, tangent, and gaussian functions and hidden layers in the BPN were chosen for the study.

  18. Occupational Structure in European Countries: What do Forecasts Predict?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Vishnevskaya

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the future occupational structure of the labour force in European members of the Organisation for Co-operation and Development (OECD. Occupational structure forecasts allow researchers to evaluate the quality of job openings and, consequently, overall future labour market performance. Identification of demand for certain occupations in Europe can facilitate assessment of whether processes occurring in the Russian labour market are consistent with global trends. The paper discusses the methodology of labour force forecasting and basic research approaches to the prediction of occupational structure changes. It emphasizes the dynamics of demand for representatives of certain occupations in Europe by identifying the fastest growing and declining occupations and suggests possible reasons for changing demand. The paper demonstrates that the main occupational trend over the next decade will consist in the increasing importance of professionals, as well as technicians and associate professionals. The increase in demand for health professionals and representatives of occupations providing scientific and technological innovation will be most significant. At the same time, it is expected that demand for elementary occupations will also rise. This process will evolve simultaneously with the decrease in the total number of skilled and semi-skilled blue-collar occupations due to globalization and the reduction of industrial production in developed economies. The ongoing “mechanization” of many job functions will not eliminate the need for occupations such as cleaners, labourers, domestic servants or personal workers. The need for these jobs allow employees with low levels of education to enter the labour market rather than depending on the social benefit system. Another tendency for all countries with developed economies will be reduced demand for many whitecollar occupations as modern computer technologies and the automation of many

  19. Forecasting of municipal solid waste quantity in a developing country using multivariate grey models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Intharathirat, Rotchana; Abdul Salam, P.; Kumar, S.; Untong, Akarapong

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Grey model can be used to forecast MSW quantity accurately with the limited data. • Prediction interval overcomes the uncertainty of MSW forecast effectively. • A multivariate model gives accuracy associated with factors affecting MSW quantity. • Population, urbanization, employment and household size play role for MSW quantity. - Abstract: In order to plan, manage and use municipal solid waste (MSW) in a sustainable way, accurate forecasting of MSW generation and composition plays a key role. It is difficult to carry out the reliable estimates using the existing models due to the limited data available in the developing countries. This study aims to forecast MSW collected in Thailand with prediction interval in long term period by using the optimized multivariate grey model which is the mathematical approach. For multivariate models, the representative factors of residential and commercial sectors affecting waste collected are identified, classified and quantified based on statistics and mathematics of grey system theory. Results show that GMC (1, 5), the grey model with convolution integral, is the most accurate with the least error of 1.16% MAPE. MSW collected would increase 1.40% per year from 43,435–44,994 tonnes per day in 2013 to 55,177–56,735 tonnes per day in 2030. This model also illustrates that population density is the most important factor affecting MSW collected, followed by urbanization, proportion employment and household size, respectively. These mean that the representative factors of commercial sector may affect more MSW collected than that of residential sector. Results can help decision makers to develop the measures and policies of waste management in long term period

  20. Forecasting of municipal solid waste quantity in a developing country using multivariate grey models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Intharathirat, Rotchana, E-mail: rotchana.in@gmail.com [Energy Field of Study, School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, KlongLuang, Pathumthani 12120 (Thailand); Abdul Salam, P., E-mail: salam@ait.ac.th [Energy Field of Study, School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, KlongLuang, Pathumthani 12120 (Thailand); Kumar, S., E-mail: kumar@ait.ac.th [Energy Field of Study, School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, KlongLuang, Pathumthani 12120 (Thailand); Untong, Akarapong, E-mail: akarapong_un@hotmail.com [School of Tourism Development, Maejo University, Chiangmai (Thailand)

    2015-05-15

    Highlights: • Grey model can be used to forecast MSW quantity accurately with the limited data. • Prediction interval overcomes the uncertainty of MSW forecast effectively. • A multivariate model gives accuracy associated with factors affecting MSW quantity. • Population, urbanization, employment and household size play role for MSW quantity. - Abstract: In order to plan, manage and use municipal solid waste (MSW) in a sustainable way, accurate forecasting of MSW generation and composition plays a key role. It is difficult to carry out the reliable estimates using the existing models due to the limited data available in the developing countries. This study aims to forecast MSW collected in Thailand with prediction interval in long term period by using the optimized multivariate grey model which is the mathematical approach. For multivariate models, the representative factors of residential and commercial sectors affecting waste collected are identified, classified and quantified based on statistics and mathematics of grey system theory. Results show that GMC (1, 5), the grey model with convolution integral, is the most accurate with the least error of 1.16% MAPE. MSW collected would increase 1.40% per year from 43,435–44,994 tonnes per day in 2013 to 55,177–56,735 tonnes per day in 2030. This model also illustrates that population density is the most important factor affecting MSW collected, followed by urbanization, proportion employment and household size, respectively. These mean that the representative factors of commercial sector may affect more MSW collected than that of residential sector. Results can help decision makers to develop the measures and policies of waste management in long term period.

  1. Avalanches near a solid insulator in nitrogen gas at atmospheric pressure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahajan, S.M.; Sudarshan, T.S.; Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina 29208)

    1989-01-01

    The pulsed Townsend (PT) technique was used to record the growth of avalanches near a solid insulator in nitrogen gas at 0.1 MPa. Several other nonconventional techniques for releasing initiatory electrons at the cathode are discussed. In this paper, experimental results of avalanches initiated by illuminating a fast (0.6-ns) nitrogen laser onto the cathode triple junction are presented. Data were recorded with plexiglas, Teflon, high-density polyethylene, low-density polyethylene, Delrin, etc. Effect of surface condition, variation of the distance between insulator surface and the avalanche initiation region, and the effect of a large number of previous avalanches on the avalanche characteristics at a particular voltage were studied. The Townsend primary ionization coefficient, hereafter referred to as growth coefficient (α), and drift velocity (V/sub e/) were evaluated through the PT technique. Results indicate that the avalanche growth in the vicinity of a solid insulator is less than that in an identical plain gas gap. Existence of a nonuniform field as a result of surface charges on the insulator and/or field modifications due to the avalanche space charge are believed to be responsible for this behavior

  2. Velocity distribution in snow avalanches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishimura, K.; Ito, Y.

    1997-12-01

    In order to investigate the detailed structure of snow avalanches, we have made snow flow experiments at the Miyanomori ski jump in Sapporo and systematic observations in the Shiai-dani, Kurobe Canyon. In the winter of 1995-1996, a new device to measure static pressures was used to estimate velocities in the snow cloud that develops above the flowing layer of avalanches. Measurements during a large avalanche in the Shiai-dani which damaged and destroyed some instruments indicate velocities increased rapidly to more than 50 m/s soon after the front. Velocities decreased gradually in the following 10 s. Velocities of the lower flowing layer were also calculated by differencing measurement of impact pressure. Both recordings in the snow cloud and in the flowing layer changed with a similar trend and suggest a close interaction between the two layers. In addition, the velocity showed a periodic change. Power spectrum analysis of the impact pressure and the static pressure depression showed a strong peak at a frequency between 4 and 6 Hz, which might imply the existence of either ordered structure or a series of surges in the flow.

  3. Anthropogenic effect on avalanche and debris flow activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Sokratov

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents examples of the change in snow avalanches and debris flows activity due to the anthropogenic pressure on vegetation and relief. The changes in dynamical characteristics of selected snow avalanches and debris flows due to the anthropogenic activity are quantified. The conclusion is made that the anthropogenic effects on the snow avalanches and debris flows activity are more pronounced than the possible effects of the climate change. The necessity is expressed on the unavoidable changes of the natural environment as the result of a construction and of use of the constructed infrastructure to be account for in corresponding planning of the protection measures.

  4. Beyond Critical Exponents in Neuronal Avalanches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Nir; Butler, Tom; Deville, Robert; Beggs, John; Dahmen, Karin

    2011-03-01

    Neurons form a complex network in the brain, where they interact with one another by firing electrical signals. Neurons firing can trigger other neurons to fire, potentially causing avalanches of activity in the network. In many cases these avalanches have been found to be scale independent, similar to critical phenomena in diverse systems such as magnets and earthquakes. We discuss models for neuronal activity that allow for the extraction of testable, statistical predictions. We compare these models to experimental results, and go beyond critical exponents.

  5. A novel approach to evaluate and compare computational snow avalanche simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-T. Fischer

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available An innovative approach for the analysis and interpretation of snow avalanche simulation in three dimensional terrain is presented. Snow avalanche simulation software is used as a supporting tool in hazard mapping. When performing a high number of simulation runs the user is confronted with a considerable amount of simulation results. The objective of this work is to establish an objective, model independent framework to evaluate and compare results of different simulation approaches with respect to indicators of practical relevance, providing an answer to the important questions: how far and how destructive does an avalanche move down slope. For this purpose the Automated Indicator based Model Evaluation and Comparison (AIMEC method is introduced. It operates on a coordinate system which follows a given avalanche path. A multitude of simulation runs is performed with the snow avalanche simulation software SamosAT (Snow Avalanche MOdelling and Simulation – Advanced Technology. The variability of pressure-based run out and avalanche destructiveness along the path is investigated for multiple simulation runs, varying release volume and model parameters. With this, results of deterministic simulation software are processed and analysed by means of statistical methods. Uncertainties originating from varying input conditions, model parameters or the different model implementations are assessed. The results show that AIMEC contributes to the interpretation of avalanche simulations with a broad applicability in model evaluation, comparison as well as examination of scenario variations.

  6. The importance of the reference populations for coherent mortality forecasting models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærgaard, Søren; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Vaupel, James W.

    -population mortality models aiming to find the optimal of the set of countries to use as reference population and analyse the importance of the selection of countries. The two multi-population mortality models used are the Li-Lee model and the Double-Gap life expectancy forecasting model. The reference populations......Coherent forecasting models that take into consideration mortality changes observed in different countries are today among the essential tools for demographers, actuaries and other researchers interested in forecasts. Medium and long term life expectancy forecasts are compared for two multi...... is calculated taking into account all the possible combinations of a set of 20 industrialized countries. The different reference populations possibilities are compared by their forecast performance. The results show that the selection of countries for multi-population mortality models has a significant effect...

  7. Experimental method to predict avalanches based on neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Zhdanov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents results of experimental use of currently available statistical methods to classify the avalanche‑dangerous precipitations and snowfalls in the Kishi Almaty river basin. The avalanche service of Kazakhstan uses graphical methods for prediction of avalanches developed by I.V. Kondrashov and E.I. Kolesnikov. The main objective of this work was to develop a modern model that could be used directly at the avalanche stations. Classification of winter precipitations into dangerous snowfalls and non‑dangerous ones was performed by two following ways: the linear discriminant function (canonical analysis and artificial neural networks. Observational data on weather and avalanches in the gorge Kishi Almaty in the gorge Kishi Almaty were used as a training sample. Coefficients for the canonical variables were calculated by the software «Statistica» (Russian version 6.0, and then the necessary formula had been constructed. The accuracy of the above classification was 96%. Simulator by the authors L.N. Yasnitsky and F.М. Cherepanov was used to learn the neural networks. The trained neural network demonstrated 98% accuracy of the classification. Prepared statistical models are recommended to be tested at the snow‑avalanche stations. Results of the tests will be used for estimation of the model quality and its readiness for the operational work. In future, we plan to apply these models for classification of the avalanche danger by the five‑point international scale.

  8. Spike avalanches exhibit universal dynamics across the sleep-wake cycle.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiago L Ribeiro

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Scale-invariant neuronal avalanches have been observed in cell cultures and slices as well as anesthetized and awake brains, suggesting that the brain operates near criticality, i.e. within a narrow margin between avalanche propagation and extinction. In theory, criticality provides many desirable features for the behaving brain, optimizing computational capabilities, information transmission, sensitivity to sensory stimuli and size of memory repertoires. However, a thorough characterization of neuronal avalanches in freely-behaving (FB animals is still missing, thus raising doubts about their relevance for brain function.To address this issue, we employed chronically implanted multielectrode arrays (MEA to record avalanches of action potentials (spikes from the cerebral cortex and hippocampus of 14 rats, as they spontaneously traversed the wake-sleep cycle, explored novel objects or were subjected to anesthesia (AN. We then modeled spike avalanches to evaluate the impact of sparse MEA sampling on their statistics. We found that the size distribution of spike avalanches are well fit by lognormal distributions in FB animals, and by truncated power laws in the AN group. FB data surrogation markedly decreases the tail of the distribution, i.e. spike shuffling destroys the largest avalanches. The FB data are also characterized by multiple key features compatible with criticality in the temporal domain, such as 1/f spectra and long-term correlations as measured by detrended fluctuation analysis. These signatures are very stable across waking, slow-wave sleep and rapid-eye-movement sleep, but collapse during anesthesia. Likewise, waiting time distributions obey a single scaling function during all natural behavioral states, but not during anesthesia. Results are equivalent for neuronal ensembles recorded from visual and tactile areas of the cerebral cortex, as well as the hippocampus.Altogether, the data provide a comprehensive link between behavior

  9. A Hybrid Genetic Programming Method in Optimization and Forecasting: A Case Study of the Broadband Penetration in OECD Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantinos Salpasaranis

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of a hybrid genetic programming method (hGP in fitting and forecasting of the broadband penetration data is proposed. The hGP uses some well-known diffusion models, such as those of Gompertz, Logistic, and Bass, in the initial population of the solutions in order to accelerate the algorithm. The produced solutions models of the hGP are used in fitting and forecasting the adoption of broadband penetration. We investigate the fitting performance of the hGP, and we use the hGP to forecast the broadband penetration in OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. The results of the optimized diffusion models are compared to those of the hGP-generated models. The comparison indicates that the hGP manages to generate solutions with high-performance statistical indicators. The hGP cooperates with the existing diffusion models, thus allowing multiple approaches to forecasting. The modified algorithm is implemented in the Python programming language, which is fast in execution time, compact, and user friendly.

  10. Ground thermal and geomechanical conditions in a permafrost-affected high-latitude rock avalanche site (Polvartinden, northern Norway)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frauenfelder, Regula; Isaksen, Ketil; Lato, Matthew J.; Noetzli, Jeannette

    2018-04-01

    On 26 June 2008, a rock avalanche detached in the northeast facing slope of Polvartinden, a high-alpine mountain in Signaldalen, northern Norway. Here, we report on the observed and modelled past and present near-surface temperature regime close to the failure zone, as well as on a subsequent simulation of the subsurface temperature regime, and on initial geomechanical mapping based on laser scanning. The volume of the rock avalanche was estimated to be approximately 500 000 m3. The depth to the actual failure surface was found to range from 40 m at the back of the failure zone to 0 m at its toe. Visible in situ ice was observed in the failure zone just after the rock avalanche. Between September 2009 and August 2013, ground surface temperatures were measured with miniature temperature data loggers at 14 different localities, close to the original failure zone along the northern ridge of Polvartinden and on the valley floor. The results from these measurements and from a basic three-dimensional heat conduction model suggest that the lower altitudinal limit of permafrost at present is at 600-650 m a.s.l., which corresponds to the upper limit of the failure zone. A coupling of our in situ data with regional climate data since 1958 suggests a general gradual warming and that the period with highest mean near surface temperatures on record ended four months before the Signaldalen rock avalanche detached. A comparison with a transient permafrost model run at 10 m depth, representative for areas where snow accumulates, strengthen these findings, which are also in congruence with measurements in nearby permafrost boreholes. It is likely that permafrost in and near the failure zone is presently subject to degradation. This degradation, in combination with the extreme warm year antecedent to the rock failure, is seen to have played an important role in the detaching of the Signaldalen rock avalanche.

  11. Ground thermal and geomechanical conditions in a permafrost-affected high-latitude rock avalanche site (Polvartinden, northern Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Frauenfelder

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available On 26 June 2008, a rock avalanche detached in the northeast facing slope of Polvartinden, a high-alpine mountain in Signaldalen, northern Norway. Here, we report on the observed and modelled past and present near-surface temperature regime close to the failure zone, as well as on a subsequent simulation of the subsurface temperature regime, and on initial geomechanical mapping based on laser scanning. The volume of the rock avalanche was estimated to be approximately 500 000 m3. The depth to the actual failure surface was found to range from 40 m at the back of the failure zone to 0 m at its toe. Visible in situ ice was observed in the failure zone just after the rock avalanche. Between September 2009 and August 2013, ground surface temperatures were measured with miniature temperature data loggers at 14 different localities, close to the original failure zone along the northern ridge of Polvartinden and on the valley floor. The results from these measurements and from a basic three-dimensional heat conduction model suggest that the lower altitudinal limit of permafrost at present is at 600–650 m a.s.l., which corresponds to the upper limit of the failure zone. A coupling of our in situ data with regional climate data since 1958 suggests a general gradual warming and that the period with highest mean near surface temperatures on record ended four months before the Signaldalen rock avalanche detached. A comparison with a transient permafrost model run at 10 m depth, representative for areas where snow accumulates, strengthen these findings, which are also in congruence with measurements in nearby permafrost boreholes. It is likely that permafrost in and near the failure zone is presently subject to degradation. This degradation, in combination with the extreme warm year antecedent to the rock failure, is seen to have played an important role in the detaching of the Signaldalen rock avalanche.

  12. Are dragon-king neuronal avalanches dungeons for self-organized brain activity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Arcangelis, L.

    2012-05-01

    Recent experiments have detected a novel form of spontaneous neuronal activity both in vitro and in vivo: neuronal avalanches. The statistical properties of this activity are typical of critical phenomena, with power laws characterizing the distributions of avalanche size and duration. A critical behaviour for the spontaneous brain activity has important consequences on stimulated activity and learning. Very interestingly, these statistical properties can be altered in significant ways in epilepsy and by pharmacological manipulations. In particular, there can be an increase in the number of large events anticipated by the power law, referred to herein as dragon-king avalanches. This behaviour, as verified by numerical models, can originate from a number of different mechanisms. For instance, it is observed experimentally that the emergence of a critical behaviour depends on the subtle balance between excitatory and inhibitory mechanisms acting in the system. Perturbing this balance, by increasing either synaptic excitation or the incidence of depolarized neuronal up-states causes frequent dragon-king avalanches. Conversely, an unbalanced GABAergic inhibition or long periods of low activity in the network give rise to sub-critical behaviour. Moreover, the existence of power laws, common to other stochastic processes, like earthquakes or solar flares, suggests that correlations are relevant in these phenomena. The dragon-king avalanches may then also be the expression of pathological correlations leading to frequent avalanches encompassing all neurons. We will review the statistics of neuronal avalanches in experimental systems. We then present numerical simulations of a neuronal network model introducing within the self-organized criticality framework ingredients from the physiology of real neurons, as the refractory period, synaptic plasticity and inhibitory synapses. The avalanche critical behaviour and the role of dragon-king avalanches will be discussed in

  13. Advances in gas avalanche photomultipliers

    CERN Document Server

    Breskin, Amos; Buzulutskov, A F; Chechik, R; Garty, E; Shefer, G; Singh, B K

    2000-01-01

    Gas avalanche detectors, combining solid photocathodes with fast electron multipliers, provide an attractive solution for photon localization over very large sensitive areas and under high illumination flux. They offer single-photon sensitivity and the possibility of operation under very intense magnetic fields. We discuss the principal factors governing the operation of gas avalanche photomultipliers. We summarize the recent progress made in alkali-halide and CVD-diamond UV-photocathodes, capable of operation under gas multiplication, and novel thin-film protected alkali-antimonide photocathodes, providing, for the first time, the possibility of operating gas photomultipliers in the visible range. Electron multipliers, adequate for these photon detectors, are proposed and some applications are briefly discussed.

  14. Catastrophic avalanches and methods of their control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Volodicheva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Definition of such phenomenon as “catastrophic avalanche” is presented in this arti-cle. Several situations with releases of catastrophic avalanches in mountains of Caucasus, Alps, and Central Asia are investigated. Materials of snow-avalanche ob-servations performed since 1960s at the Elbrus station of the Lomonosov Moscow State University (Central Caucasus were used for this work. Complex-valued measures of engineering protection demonstrating different efficiencies are consid-ered.

  15. Design and characterization of single photon avalanche diodes arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neri, L.; Tudisco, S.; Lanzanò, L.; Musumeci, F.; Privitera, S.; Scordino, A.; Condorelli, G.; Fallica, G.; Mazzillo, M.; Sanfilippo, D.; Valvo, G.

    2010-05-01

    During the last years, in collaboration with ST-Microelectronics, we developed a new avalanche photo sensor, single photon avalanche diode (SPAD) see Ref.[S. Privitera, et al., Sensors 8 (2008) 4636 [1];S. Tudisco et al., IEEE Sensors Journal 8 (2008) 1324 [2

  16. China's soaring vehicle population: Even greater than forecasted?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yunshi; Teter, Jacob; Sperling, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    China's vehicle population is widely forecasted to grow 6-11% per year into the foreseeable future. Barring aggressive policy intervention or a collapse of the Chinese economy, we suggest that those forecasts are conservative. We analyze the historical vehicle growth patterns of seven of the largest vehicle producing countries at comparable times in their motorization history. We estimate vehicle growth rates for this analogous group of countries to have 13-17% per year-roughly twice the rate forecasted for China by others. Applying these higher growth rates to China results in the total vehicle fleet reaching considerably higher volumes than forecasted by others, implying far higher global oil use and carbon emissions than projected by the International Energy Agency and others. - Highlights: → We use large, car-producing countries as models in forecasting vehicle ownership in China. → We find that vehicle growth rates in China could be twice as high as forecasted by others (including IEA). → Motorization is occurring quickly across all regions in China, not just the richer coastal areas.

  17. Relation of the runaway avalanche threshold to momentum space topology

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDevitt, Christopher J.; Guo, Zehua; Tang, Xian-Zhu

    2018-02-01

    The underlying physics responsible for the formation of an avalanche instability due to the generation of secondary electrons is studied. A careful examination of the momentum space topology of the runaway electron population is carried out with an eye toward identifying how qualitative changes in the momentum space of the runaway electrons is correlated with the avalanche threshold. It is found that the avalanche threshold is tied to the merger of an O and X point in the momentum space of the primary runaway electron population. Such a change of the momentum space topology is shown to be accurately described by a simple analytic model, thus providing a powerful means of determining the avalanche threshold for a range of model assumptions.

  18. Magnetic avalanches in manganese-acetate, "magnetic deflagration"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Yoko

    Mn12-acetate, first synthesized in 1980 by Lis, is one example of a class of many molecules called single molecule magnets (SMMs) or molecular nanomagnets. These molecules have several atomic spins strongly coupled together within each molecule. They exhibit interesting quantum mechanical phenomena at low temperatures such as quantum tunneling of magnetization, which was first found with Mn12-acetate in 1996 by Friedman, et al. , and Berry phase oscillations which were measured in Fe8 (another SMM) in 1999 by Wernsdorfer, et al. In addition to possible application as memory storage and qubits for quantum computers, these systems provide the means for studies of mesoscopic physics as well as the interactions of the molecules with their environment, such as phonon, photon, nuclear spin, intermolecular dipole, and exchange interactions. Mn12-acetate has twelve Mn ions magnetically coupled in the center of the molecule yielding a giant spin of S = 10 at low temperature. It also has a large uniaxial anisotropy of 65 K. Below 3 K, magnetization curves show strong hysteresis due to the anisotropy barrier. At thesis temperatures, the spin relaxes through the barrier by quantum tunneling of magnetization, which produces regularly-spaced multiple resonant steps in the hysteresis curve. Magnetic avalanches, first detected by Paulsen et al., also occur for some samples only at low temperature, leading to a very fast single-step reversal of the full magnetization, which clearly differs from relaxation by tunneling. In this thesis, I present the results of detailed experimental studies of two aspects of magnetic avalanche phenomenon: "conditions for the triggering of avalanches" and "propagation of the avalanche front". In the first study, we find the magnetic fields at which avalanches occur are stochastically distributed in a particular range of fields. For the second study, we conducted local time-resolved measurements. The results indicate the magnetization avalanches spread

  19. La Carte de Localisation Probable des Avalanches (CPLA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilles BORREL

    1994-12-01

    Full Text Available La Carte de Localisation Probable des Avalanches (CPLA indique l’enveloppe des limites extrêmes connues atteintes par les avalanches, ainsi que les travaux de protection associés. Il s’agit d’un document informatif et non d’une carte de risque. Depuis 1990, les données thématiques sont numérisées.

  20. Phase avalanches in near-adiabatic evolutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vertesi, T.; Englman, R.

    2006-01-01

    In the course of slow, nearly adiabatic motion of a system, relative changes in the slowness can cause abrupt and high magnitude phase changes, ''phase avalanches,'' superimposed on the ordinary geometric phases. The generality of this effect is examined for arbitrary Hamiltonians and multicomponent (>2) wave packets and is found to be connected (through the Blaschke term in the theory of analytic signals) to amplitude zeros in the lower half of the complex time plane. Motion on a nonmaximal circle on the Poincare-sphere suppresses the effect. A spectroscopic transition experiment can independently verify the phase-avalanche magnitudes

  1. Forecasting Zakat collection using artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sy Ahmad Ubaidillah, Sh. Hafizah; Sallehuddin, Roselina

    2013-04-01

    'Zakat', "that which purifies" or "alms", is the giving of a fixed portion of one's wealth to charity, generally to the poor and needy. It is one of the five pillars of Islam, and must be paid by all practicing Muslims who have the financial means (nisab). 'Nisab' is the minimum level to determine whether there is a 'zakat' to be paid on the assets. Today, in most Muslim countries, 'zakat' is collected through a decentralized and voluntary system. Under this voluntary system, 'zakat' committees are established, which are tasked with the collection and distribution of 'zakat' funds. 'Zakat' promotes a more equitable redistribution of wealth, and fosters a sense of solidarity amongst members of the 'Ummah'. The Malaysian government has established a 'zakat' center at every state to facilitate the management of 'zakat'. The center has to have a good 'zakat' management system to effectively execute its functions especially in the collection and distribution of 'zakat'. Therefore, a good forecasting model is needed. The purpose of this study is to develop a forecasting model for Pusat Zakat Pahang (PZP) to predict the total amount of collection from 'zakat' of assets more precisely. In this study, two different Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models using two different learning algorithms are developed; Back Propagation (BP) and Levenberg-Marquardt (LM). Both models are developed and compared in terms of their accuracy performance. The best model is determined based on the lowest mean square error and the highest correlations values. Based on the results obtained from the study, BP neural network is recommended as the forecasting model to forecast the collection from 'zakat' of assets for PZP.

  2. Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries; Food and non-Food Inflation in Kenya

    OpenAIRE

    Michal Andrle; Andrew Berg; R. Armando Morales; Rafael Portillo; Jan Vlcek

    2013-01-01

    We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in low-income countries and apply it to Kenya. We use the model to run several policy-relevant exercises. First, we filter international and Kenyan data (on output, inflation and its components, exchange rates and interest rates) to recover a model-based decomposition of most variables into trends (or potential values) and temporary mo...

  3. Energy and electricity demand forecasting for nuclear power planning in developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-07-01

    This Guidebook is designed to be a reference document to forecast energy and electricity demand. It presents concepts and methodologies that have been developed to make an analytical approach to energy/electricity demand forecasting as part of the planning process. The Guidebook is divided into 6 main chapters: (Energy demand and development, energy demand analysis, electric load curve analysis, energy and electricity demand forecasting, energy and electricity demand forecasting tools used in various organizations, IAEA methodologies for energy and electricity demand forecasting) and 3 appendices (experience with case studies carried out by the IAEA, reference technical data, reference economic data). A bibliography and a glossary complete the Guidebook. Refs, figs and tabs

  4. Post-glacial rock avalanches in the Obersee Valley, Glarner Alps, Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagelisen, Jan; Moore, Jeffrey R.; Vockenhuber, Christoph; Ivy-Ochs, Susan

    2015-06-01

    The geological record of prehistoric rock avalanches provides invaluable data for assessing the hazard posed by these rare but destructive mass movements. Here we investigate two large rock avalanches in the Obersee valley of the Glarner Alps, Switzerland, providing detailed mapping of landslide and related Quaternary phenomena, revised volume estimates for each event, and surface exposure dating of rock avalanche deposits. The Rautispitz rock avalanche originated from the southern flank of the Obersee valley, releasing approximately 91 million m3 of limestone on steeply-dipping bedding planes. Debris had maximum horizontal travel distance of ~ 5000 m, a fahrboeschung angle (relating fall height to length) of 18°, and was responsible for the creation of Lake Obersee; deposits are more than 130 m thick in places. The Platten rock avalanche encompassed a source volume of 11 million m3 sliding from the northern flank of the Obersee valley on similar steeply-dipping limestone beds (bedrock forms a syncline under the valley). Debris had a maximum horizontal travel distance of 1600 m with a fahrboeschung angle of 21°, and is more than 80 m thick in places. Deposits of the Platten rock avalanche are superposed atop those from the Rautispitz event at the end of the Obersee valley where they dam Lake Haslensee. Runout for both events was simulated using the dynamic analysis code DAN3D; results showed excellent match to mapped deposit extents and thickness and helped confirm the hypothesized single-event failure scenarios. 36Cl cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dating of 13 deposited boulders revealed a Younger Dryas age of 12.6 ± 1.0 ka for the Rautispitz rock avalanche and a mid-Holocene age of 6.1 ± 0.8 ka for the Platten rock avalanche. A seismological trigger is proposed for the former event due to potentially correlated turbidite deposits in nearby Lake Zurich.

  5. New method for determining avalanche breakdown voltage of silicon photomultipliers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chirikov-Zorin, I.

    2017-01-01

    The avalanche breakdown and Geiger mode of the silicon p-n junction is considered. A precise physically motivated method is proposed for determining the avalanche breakdown voltage of silicon photomultipliers (SiPM). The method is based on measuring the dependence of the relative photon detection efficiency (PDE rel ) on the bias voltage when one type of carriers (electron or hole) is injected into the avalanche multiplication zone of the p-n junction. The injection of electrons or holes from the base region of the SiPM semiconductor structure is performed using short-wave or long-wave light. At a low overvoltage (1-2 V) the detection efficiency is linearly dependent on the bias voltage; therefore, extrapolation to zero PDE rel value determines the SiPM avalanche breakdown voltage with an accuracy within a few millivolts. [ru

  6. Application of statistical and dynamics models for snow avalanche hazard assessment in mountain regions of Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turchaninova, A.

    2012-04-01

    The estimation of extreme avalanche runout distances, flow velocities, impact pressures and volumes is an essential part of snow engineering in mountain regions of Russia. It implies the avalanche hazard assessment and mapping. Russian guidelines accept the application of different avalanche models as well as approaches for the estimation of model input parameters. Consequently different teams of engineers in Russia apply various dynamics and statistical models for engineering practice. However it gives more freedom to avalanche practitioners and experts but causes lots of uncertainties in case of serious limitations of avalanche models. We discuss these problems by presenting the application results of different well known and widely used statistical (developed in Russia) and avalanche dynamics models for several avalanche test sites in the Khibini Mountains (The Kola Peninsula) and the Caucasus. The most accurate and well-documented data from different powder and wet, big rare and small frequent snow avalanche events is collected from 1960th till today in the Khibini Mountains by the Avalanche Safety Center of "Apatit". This data was digitized and is available for use and analysis. Then the detailed digital avalanche database (GIS) was created for the first time. It contains contours of observed avalanches (ESRI shapes, more than 50 years of observations), DEMs, remote sensing data, description of snow pits, photos etc. Thus, the Russian avalanche data is a unique source of information for understanding of an avalanche flow rheology and the future development and calibration of the avalanche dynamics models. GIS database was used to analyze model input parameters and to calibrate and verify avalanche models. Regarding extreme dynamic parameters the outputs using different models can differ significantly. This is unacceptable for the engineering purposes in case of the absence of the well-defined guidelines in Russia. The frequency curves for the runout distance

  7. High voltage short plus generation based on avalanche circuit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Yuanfeng; Yu Xiaoqi

    2006-01-01

    Simulate the avalanche circuit in series with PSPICE module, design the high voltage short plus generation circuit by avalanche transistor in series for the sweep deflection circuit of streak camera. The output voltage ranges 1.2 KV into 50 ohm load. The rise time of the circuit is less than 3 ns. (authors)

  8. Electric field distribution and simulation of avalanche formation due ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Electric field distributions and their role in the formation of avalanche due to the passage of heavy ions in parallel grid avalanche type wire chamber detectors are evaluated using a Monte Carlo simulation. The relative merits and demerits of parallel and crossed wire grid configurations are studied. It is found that the crossed ...

  9. A Fuzzy Collaborative Forecasting Approach for Forecasting the Productivity of a Factory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Chi Wang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Productivity is always considered as one of the most basic and important factors to the competitiveness of a factory. For this reason, all factories have sought to enhance productivity. To achieve this goal, we first need to estimate the productivity. However, there is considerable degree of uncertainty in productivity. For this reason, a fuzzy collaborative forecasting approach is proposed in this study to forecast the productivity of a factory. First, a learning model is established to estimate the future productivity. Subsequently, the learning model is converted into three equivalent nonlinear programming problems to be solved from various viewpoints. The fuzzy productivity forecasts by different experts may not be equal and should therefore be aggregated. To this end, the fuzzy intersection and back propagation network approach is applied. The practical example of a dynamic random access memory (DRAM factory is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

  10. A new web-based system to improve the monitoring of snow avalanche hazard in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourova, Ekaterina; Maldonado, Eric; Leroy, Jean-Baptiste; Alouani, Rachid; Eckert, Nicolas; Bonnefoy-Demongeot, Mylene; Deschatres, Michael

    2016-05-01

    Snow avalanche data in the French Alps and Pyrenees have been recorded for more than 100 years in several databases. The increasing amount of observed data required a more integrative and automated service. Here we report the comprehensive web-based Snow Avalanche Information System newly developed to this end for three important data sets: an avalanche chronicle (Enquête Permanente sur les Avalanches, EPA), an avalanche map (Carte de Localisation des Phénomènes d'Avalanche, CLPA) and a compilation of hazard and vulnerability data recorded on selected paths endangering human settlements (Sites Habités Sensibles aux Avalanches, SSA). These data sets are now integrated into a common database, enabling full interoperability between all different types of snow avalanche records: digitized geographic data, avalanche descriptive parameters, eyewitness reports, photographs, hazard and risk levels, etc. The new information system is implemented through modular components using Java-based web technologies with Spring and Hibernate frameworks. It automates the manual data entry and improves the process of information collection and sharing, enhancing user experience and data quality, and offering new outlooks to explore and exploit the huge amount of snow avalanche data available for fundamental research and more applied risk assessment.

  11. Evaluation and operationalization of a novel forest detrainment modeling approach for computational snow avalanche simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teich, M.; Feistl, T.; Fischer, J.; Bartelt, P.; Bebi, P.; Christen, M.; Grêt-Regamey, A.

    2013-12-01

    Two-dimensional avalanche simulation software operating in three-dimensional terrain are widely used for hazard zoning and engineering to predict runout distances and impact pressures of snow avalanche events. Mountain forests are an effective biological protection measure; however, the protective capacity of forests to decelerate or even to stop avalanches that start within forested areas or directly above the treeline is seldom considered in this context. In particular, runout distances of small- to medium-scale avalanches are strongly influenced by the structural conditions of forests in the avalanche path. This varying decelerating effect has rarely been addressed or implemented in avalanche simulation. We present an evaluation and operationalization of a novel forest detrainment modeling approach implemented in the avalanche simulation software RAMMS. The new approach accounts for the effect of forests in the avalanche path by detraining mass, which leads to a deceleration and runout shortening of avalanches. The extracted avalanche mass caught behind trees stops immediately and, therefore, is instantly subtracted from the flow and the momentum of the stopped mass is removed from the total momentum of the avalanche flow. This relationship is parameterized by the empirical detrainment coefficient K [Pa] which accounts for the braking power of different forest types per unit area. To define K dependent on specific forest characteristics, we simulated 40 well-documented small- to medium-scale avalanches which released in and ran through forests with varying K-values. Comparing two-dimensional simulation results with one-dimensional field observations for a high number of avalanche events and simulations manually is however time consuming and rather subjective. In order to process simulation results in a comprehensive and standardized way, we used a recently developed automatic evaluation and comparison method defining runout distances based on a pressure

  12. Rock avalanches clusters along the northern Chile coastal scarp

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosta, G. B.; Hermanns, R. L.; Dehls, J.; Lari, S.; Sepulveda, S.

    2017-07-01

    Rock avalanche clusters can be relevant indicators of the evolution of specific regions. They can be used to define: the type and intensity of triggering events, their recurrence and potential probability of occurrence, the progressive damage of the rock mass, the mechanisms of transport and deposition, as well as the environmental conditions at the time of occurrence. This paper tackles these subjects by analyzing two main clusters of rock avalanches (each event between 0.6 and 30 Mm3), separated by few kilometers and located along the coastal scarp of Northern Chile, south of Iquique. It lies, hence, within a seismic area characterized by a long seismic gap that ended on April 1st, 2014 with a Mw 8.2 earthquake. The scar position, high along the coastal cliff, supports seismic triggering for these clusters. The deposits' relative positions are used to obtain the sequence of rock avalanching events for each cluster. The progressive decrease of volume in the sequence of rock avalanches forming each cluster fits well the theoretical models for successive slope failures. These sequences seem to agree with those derived by dating the deposits with ages spanning between 4 kyr and 60 kyr. An average uplift rate of 0.2 mm/yr in the last 40 kyr is estimated for the coastal plain giving a further constraint to the rock avalanche deposition considering the absence of reworking of the deposits. Volume estimates and datings allow the estimation of an erosion rate contribution of about 0.098-0.112 mm km- 2 yr- 1 which is well comparable to values presented in the literature for earthquake induced landslides. We have carried out numerical modeling in order to analyze the mobility of the rock avalanches and examine the environmental conditions that controlled the runout. In doing so, we have considered the sequence of individual rock avalanches within the specific clusters, thus including in the models the confining effect caused by the presence of previous deposits. Bingham

  13. Wind-Farm Forecasting Using the HARMONIE Weather Forecast Model and Bayes Model Averaging for Bias Removal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Enda; McKinstry, Alastair; Ralph, Adam

    2015-04-01

    Building on previous work presented at EGU 2013 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876610213016068 ), more results are available now from a different wind-farm in complex terrain in southwest Ireland. The basic approach is to interpolate wind-speed forecasts from an operational weather forecast model (i.e., HARMONIE in the case of Ireland) to the precise location of each wind-turbine, and then use Bayes Model Averaging (BMA; with statistical information collected from a prior training-period of e.g., 25 days) to remove systematic biases. Bias-corrected wind-speed forecasts (and associated power-generation forecasts) are then provided twice daily (at 5am and 5pm) out to 30 hours, with each forecast validation fed back to BMA for future learning. 30-hr forecasts from the operational Met Éireann HARMONIE model at 2.5km resolution have been validated against turbine SCADA observations since Jan. 2014. An extra high-resolution (0.5km grid-spacing) HARMONIE configuration has been run since Nov. 2014 as an extra member of the forecast "ensemble". A new version of HARMONIE with extra filters designed to stabilize high-resolution configurations has been run since Jan. 2015. Measures of forecast skill and forecast errors will be provided, and the contributions made by the various physical and computational enhancements to HARMONIE will be quantified.

  14. Using stereo satellite imagery to account for ablation, entrainment, and compaction in volume calculations for rock avalanches on Glaciers: Application to the 2016 Lamplugh Rock Avalanche in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bessette-Kirton, Erin; Coe, Jeffrey A.; Zhou, Wendy

    2018-01-01

    The use of preevent and postevent digital elevation models (DEMs) to estimate the volume of rock avalanches on glaciers is complicated by ablation of ice before and after the rock avalanche, scour of material during rock avalanche emplacement, and postevent ablation and compaction of the rock avalanche deposit. We present a model to account for these processes in volume estimates of rock avalanches on glaciers. We applied our model by calculating the volume of the 28 June 2016 Lamplugh rock avalanche in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska. We derived preevent and postevent 2‐m resolution DEMs from WorldView satellite stereo imagery. Using data from DEM differencing, we reconstructed the rock avalanche and adjacent surfaces at the time of occurrence by accounting for elevation changes due to ablation and scour of the ice surface, and postevent deposit changes. We accounted for uncertainties in our DEMs through precise coregistration and an assessment of relative elevation accuracy in bedrock control areas. The rock avalanche initially displaced 51.7 ± 1.5 Mm3 of intact rock and then scoured and entrained 13.2 ± 2.2 Mm3 of snow and ice during emplacement. We calculated the total deposit volume to be 69.9 ± 7.9 Mm3. Volume estimates that did not account for topographic changes due to ablation, scour, and compaction underestimated the deposit volume by 31.0–46.8 Mm3. Our model provides an improved framework for estimating uncertainties affecting rock avalanche volume measurements in glacial environments. These improvements can contribute to advances in the understanding of rock avalanche hazards and dynamics.

  15. Intermittent flow under constant forcing: Acoustic emission from creep avalanches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salje, Ekhard K. H.; Liu, Hanlong; Jin, Linsen; Jiang, Deyi; Xiao, Yang; Jiang, Xiang

    2018-01-01

    While avalanches in field driven ferroic systems (e.g., Barkhausen noise), domain switching of martensitic nanostructures, and the collapse of porous materials are well documented, creep avalanches (avalanches under constant forcing) were never observed. Collapse avalanches generate particularly large acoustic emission (AE) signals and were hence chosen to investigate crackling noise under creep conditions. Piezoelectric SiO2 has a strong piezoelectric response even at the nanoscale so that we chose weakly bound SiO2 spheres in natural sandstone as a representative for the study of avalanches under time-independent, constant force. We found highly non-stationary crackling noise with four activity periods, each with power law distributed AE emission. Only the period before the final collapse shows the mean field behavior (ɛ near 1.39), in agreement with previous dynamic measurements at a constant stress rate. All earlier event periods show collapse with larger exponents (ɛ = 1.65). The waiting time exponents are classic with τ near 2.2 and 1.32. Creep data generate power law mixing with "effective" exponents for the full dataset with combinations of mean field and non-mean field regimes. We find close agreement with the predicted time-dependent fiber bound simulations, including events and waiting time distributions. Båth's law holds under creep conditions.

  16. Comparison of landslide forecasting services in Piedmont (Italy) and Norway, illustrated by events in late spring 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devoli, Graziella; Tiranti, Davide; Cremonini, Roberto; Sund, Monica; Boje, Søren

    2018-05-01

    Only few countries operate systematically national and regional forecasting services for rainfall-induced landslides (i.e., debris flows, debris avalanches and shallow slides), among them Norway and Italy. In Norway, the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) operates a landslide forecasting service at national level. In Italy, the Regional Agency for Environmental Protection, ARPA Piemonte, is responsible for issuing landslide warnings for the Piedmont region, located in northwestern Italy. A daily hazard assessment is performed, describing both expected awareness level and type of landslide hazard for a selected warning region. Both services provide regular landslide hazard assessments based on a combination of quantitative thresholds and daily rainfall forecasts together with qualitative expert analysis. Daily warning reports are published at http://www.arpa.piemonte.gov.it/rischinaturali and http://www.varsom.no, last access: 7 May 2018. In spring 2013, ARPA Piemonte and the NVE issued warnings for hydro-meteorological hazards due to the arrival of a deep and large low-pressure system, called herein Vb cyclone. This kind of weather system is known to produce the largest floods in Europe. Less known is that this weather pattern can trigger landslides as well. In this study, we present the experiences of NVE and ARPA Piemonte in the late spring of 2013. The Vb cyclone influenced weather throughout Europe over a long period, from the end of April until the beginning of June 2013. However, major affects were observed in the first half part of this period in Piedmont, while in Norway, major damage was reported from 15 May to 2 June 2013. Floods and landslides significantly damaged roads, railways, buildings and other infrastructure in both countries. This case study shows that large synoptic pattern can produce different natural hazards in different parts of Europe, from sandstorms at low latitudes, to flood and landslides when the system moves

  17. Stellar Winds and Dust Avalanches in the AU Mic Debris Disk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chiang, Eugene; Fung, Jeffrey, E-mail: echiang@astro.berkeley.edu, E-mail: jeffrey.fung@berkeley.edu [Department of Astronomy, University of California at Berkeley, Campbell Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720-3411 (United States)

    2017-10-10

    We explain the fast-moving, ripple-like features in the edge-on debris disk orbiting the young M dwarf AU Mic. The bright features are clouds of submicron dust repelled by the host star’s wind. The clouds are produced by avalanches: radial outflows of dust that gain exponentially more mass as they shatter background disk particles in collisional chain reactions. The avalanches are triggered from a region a few au across—the “avalanche zone”—located on AU Mic’s primary “birth” ring at a true distance of ∼35 au from the star but at a projected distance more than a factor of 10 smaller: the avalanche zone sits directly along the line of sight to the star, on the side of the ring nearest Earth, launching clouds that disk rotation sends wholly to the southeast, as observed. The avalanche zone marks where the primary ring intersects a secondary ring of debris left by the catastrophic disruption of a progenitor up to Varuna in size, less than tens of thousands of years ago. Only where the rings intersect are particle collisions sufficiently violent to spawn the submicron dust needed to seed the avalanches. We show that this picture works quantitatively, reproducing the masses, sizes, and velocities of the observed escaping clouds. The Lorentz force exerted by the wind’s magnetic field, whose polarity reverses periodically according to the stellar magnetic cycle, promises to explain the observed vertical undulations. The timescale between avalanches, about 10 yr, might be set by time variability of the wind mass loss rate or, more speculatively, by some self-regulating limit cycle.

  18. Avalanches and plastic flow in crystal plasticity: an overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papanikolaou, Stefanos; Cui, Yinan; Ghoniem, Nasr

    2018-01-01

    Crystal plasticity is mediated through dislocations, which form knotted configurations in a complex energy landscape. Once they disentangle and move, they may also be impeded by permanent obstacles with finite energy barriers or frustrating long-range interactions. The outcome of such complexity is the emergence of dislocation avalanches as the basic mechanism of plastic flow in solids at the nanoscale. While the deformation behavior of bulk materials appears smooth, a predictive model should clearly be based upon the character of these dislocation avalanches and their associated strain bursts. We provide here a comprehensive overview of experimental observations, theoretical models and computational approaches that have been developed to unravel the multiple aspects of dislocation avalanche physics and the phenomena leading to strain bursts in crystal plasticity.

  19. Novel methodology for pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aball?a, Samuel; R?muzat, C?cile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, ?sa; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and objective: The value appreciation of new drugs across countries today features a disruption that is making the historical data that are used for forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure poorly reliable. Forecasting methods rarely addressed uncertainty. The objective of this project was to propose a methodology to perform pharmaceutical expenditure forecasting that integrates expected policy changes and uncertainty (developed for the European Commission as the ‘EU Pharmaceutical e...

  20. La carte de localisation des phénomènes d'avalanche (CLPA : enjeux et perspectives The Localization Map of Avalanche Phenomena (CLPA in French: stakes and prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mylène Bonnefoy, Gilles Borrel, Didier Richard, Laurent Bélanger et Mohamed Naaim

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Après presque quarante ans d’existence, la carte de localisation des phénomènes d'avalanche (CLPA constitue aujourd’hui un outil incontournable pour la prise en compte du risque d’avalanche dans l’aménagement et la gestion des territoires de montagne. Pour optimiser la sécurité des zones urbanisées, ce dispositif a su se rénover par une mise à jour régulière et étendue des données et l'étude de nouvelles zones, mais aussi par une meilleure diffusion auprès des opérationnels et du public concernés. Les auteurs nous rappellent ici l'évolution du fonctionnement de la CLPA et l'intérêt d'élargir la valorisation de ses données dans de nouveaux outils scientifiques.The Localization Map of Avalanche Phenomena (CLPA in French was created in 1971 as a response to the deadly avalanche occurred in Val d’Isère (February 1970, 39 persons killed. The aim is to inventory and to memorize areas where avalanches occurred in the past in order to keep in memory precisely greatest limits of those avalanches. The CLPA was rapidly considered as an essential element for developing plan in mountain areas. After the other catastrophic avalanche, which occurred in the Montroc Village (Chamonix in February 1999, it was recommended “the mutual valuation of the EPA and the CLPA integrated into an information system containing the information on avalanches and the information on the other natural risks in mountain”. The ministry in charge of environment decided therefore to continue and to modernize the CLPA, mission that was assigned to the Cemagref with the ONF collaboration. This modernization was based on the end of maps and testimonies records digitizing, on the compilation of summary notes concerning main avalanches information in reference to a mountain massif, on the institution of a durable updating of the map and on the possibility of having all information on line on the website www.avalanches.fr. Information recorded in the

  1. THEORY AND PRACTICE OF INDIVIDUAL SNOW AVALANCHE RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr Shnyparkov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the Government of the Russian Federation considerably increased attention to the exploitation of the Russian Arctic territories. Simultaneously, the evaluation of snow avalanches danger was enhanced with the aim to decrease fatalities and reduce economic losses. However, it turned out that solely reporting the degree of avalanche danger is not sufficient. Instead, quantitative information on probabilistic parameters of natural hazards, the characteristics of their effects on the environment and possibly resulting losses is increasingly needed. Such information allows for the estimation of risk, including risk related to snow avalanches. Here, snow avalanche risk is quantified for the Khibiny Mountains, one of the most industrialized parts of the Russian Arctic: Major parts of the territory have an acceptable degree of individual snow avalanche risk (<1×10-6. The territories with an admissible (10-4–10-6 or unacceptable (>1×10-4 degree of individual snow avalanche risk (0.5 and 2% of the total area correspond to the Southeast of the Khibiny Mountains where settlements and mining industries are situated. Moreover, due to an increase in winter tourism, some traffic infrastructure is located in valleys with an admissible or unacceptable degree of individual snow avalanches risk.

  2. Reforestation and land use change as drivers for a decrease of avalanche damage in mid-latitude mountains (NW Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Hernández, Cristina; Ruiz-Fernández, Jesús; Sánchez-Posada, Covadonga; Pereira, Susana; Oliva, Marc; Vieira, Gonçalo

    2017-06-01

    developed countries worldwide, and considering present initiatives conducted to counteract its negative cultural effects by means of grazing and clearing operations, planning is imperative, and this research provides useful information for environmental management policies and risk mitigation in avalanche prone areas.

  3. MO-AB-BRA-07: Low Dose Imaging with Avalanche Amorphous Selenium Flat Panel Imager

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scheuermann, J; Howansky, A; Goldan, A; Tanioka, K; Zhao, W [Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York (United States); Leveille, S; Tousignant, O [2Analogic Canada, Saint-laurent, Quebec (Canada)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: We present the first active matrix flat panel imager (AMFPI) capable of producing x-ray quantum noise limited images at low doses by overcoming the electronic noise through signal amplification by photoconductive avalanche gain (gav). The indirect detector fabricated uses an optical sensing layer of amorphous selenium (a-Se) known as High-Gain Avalanche Rushing Photoconductor (HARP). The detector design is called Scintillator HARP (SHARP)-AMFPI. This is the first image sensor to utilize solid-state HARP technology. Methods: The detector’s electronic readout is a 24 × 30 cm{sup 2} array of thin film transistors (TFT) with a pixel pitch of 85 µm. The HARP structure consists of a 15 µm layer of a-Se isolated from the high voltage (HV) and signal electrode by a 2 µm thick hole blocking layer and electron blocking layer, respectively, to reduce dark current. A 150 µm thick structured CsI scintillator with reflective backing and a fiber optic faceplate (FOP) was coupled to the semi-transparent HV bias electrode of the HARP structure. Images were acquired using a 30 kVp Mo/Mo spectrum typically used in mammography. Results: Optical sensitivity measurements demonstrate that gav = 76 ± 5 can be achieved over the entire active area of the detector. At a constant dose to the detector of 6.67 µGy, image quality increases with gav until the effective electronic noise is negligible. Quantum noise limited images can be obtained with doses as low as 0.18 µGy. Conclusion: We demonstrate the feasibility of utilizing avalanche gain to overcome electronic noise. The indirect detector fabricated is the first solid-state imaging sensor to use HARP, and the largest active area HARP sensor to date. Our future work is to improve charge transport within the HARP structure and utilize a transparent HV electrode.

  4. High pressure pulsed avalanche discharges: Scaling of required preionization rate for homogeneity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenning, N.; Axnaes, I.; Nilsson, J.O.; Eninger, J.E.

    1994-01-01

    Homogeneous high-pressure discharges can be formed by pulsed avalanche breakdown, provided that the individual avalanche heads have diffused to a large enough radius to overlap before streamer breakdown occurs. The overlap condition can be met by using an external mechanism to preionize the neutral gas, e.g., x-rays or uv radiation. There are several scenarios, (1) to preionize the gas, and then trigger the discharge by the sudden application of an electric field, (2) to apply an overvoltage over the discharge and trigger the discharge by external ionization, or (3) to have a continuous rate of external ionization and let the E field rise, with a comparatively long time constant τ, across the breakdown value (E/n) 0 . The authors here study the last of these scenarios, which gives a very efficient use of the preionization source because the avalanche startpoint can accumulate during the pre-avalanche phase. The authors have found that the required avalanche startpoint density N st.p , defined as the density of individual single, or clusters of, electrons at the time when the electric field crosses the breakdown value, scales with pressure and rise time as N st.p ∝ p 21/4 τ -3/4 . This pressure scaling disagrees with the p 3/2 scaling found by Levatter and Lin (J. Appl. Phys. 51(1), 210), while the rise time scaling agrees satisfactorily with their results. For an E field which rises slowly across the breakdown value, the pre-avalanche accumulation of electrons must be taken into account, as well as the fact that the density n e of free electrons becomes larger than the density N st.p of independent avalanche heads: when electron impact ionization closely balances attachment, individual electrons are replaced by clusters of electrons which are too close to form individual avalanche heads

  5. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and Objectives: With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States’ ph...

  6. China's soaring vehicle population: Even greater than forecasted?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Yunshi, E-mail: yunwang@ucdavis.edu [Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Teter, Jacob, E-mail: jeteter@ucdavis.edu [Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Sperling, Daniel, E-mail: dsperling@ucdavis.edu [Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616 (United States)

    2011-06-15

    China's vehicle population is widely forecasted to grow 6-11% per year into the foreseeable future. Barring aggressive policy intervention or a collapse of the Chinese economy, we suggest that those forecasts are conservative. We analyze the historical vehicle growth patterns of seven of the largest vehicle producing countries at comparable times in their motorization history. We estimate vehicle growth rates for this analogous group of countries to have 13-17% per year-roughly twice the rate forecasted for China by others. Applying these higher growth rates to China results in the total vehicle fleet reaching considerably higher volumes than forecasted by others, implying far higher global oil use and carbon emissions than projected by the International Energy Agency and others. - Highlights: > We use large, car-producing countries as models in forecasting vehicle ownership in China. > We find that vehicle growth rates in China could be twice as high as forecasted by others (including IEA). > Motorization is occurring quickly across all regions in China, not just the richer coastal areas.

  7. Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: a case study in the French Alps over the 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castebrunet, H.; Eckert, N.; Giraud, G.; Durand, Y.; Morin, S.

    2014-01-01

    Projecting changes in snow cover due to climate warming is important for many societal issues, including adaptation of avalanche risk mitigation strategies. Efficient modeling of future snow cover requires high resolution to properly resolve the topography. Here, we detail results obtained through statistical downscaling techniques allowing simulations of future snowpack conditions for the mid- and late 21st century in the French Alps under three climate change scenarios. Refined statistical descriptions of snowpack characteristics are provided with regards to a 1960-1990 reference period, including latitudinal, altitudinal and seasonal gradients. These results are then used to feed a statistical model of avalanche activity-snow conditions-meteorological conditions relationships, so as to produce the first prognoses at annual/seasonal time scales of future natural avalanche activity eventually based on past observations. The resulting statistical indicators are fundamental for the mountain economy in terms of changes anticipation. At all considered spatio-temporal scales, whereas precipitations are expected to remain quite stationary, temperature increase interacting with topography will control snow-related variables, for instance the rate of decrease of total and dry snow depths, and the successive increase/decrease of the wet snow pack. Overall, with regards to the reference period, changes are strong for the end of the 21st century, but already significant for the mid-century. Changes in winter are somewhat less important than in spring, but wet snow conditions will appear at high elevations earlier in the season. For a given altitude, the Southern French Alps will not be significantly more affected than the Northern French Alps, so that the snowpack characteristics will be preserved more lately in the southern massifs of higher mean altitude. Regarding avalanche activity, a general -20-30% decrease and interannual variability is forecasted, relatively strong

  8. Stretched exponentials and power laws in granular avalanching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Head, D. A.; Rodgers, G. J.

    1999-02-01

    We introduce a model for granular surface flow which exhibits both stretched exponential and power law avalanching over its parameter range. Two modes of transport are incorporated, a rolling layer consisting of individual particles and the overdamped, sliding motion of particle clusters. The crossover in behaviour observed in experiments on piles of rice is attributed to a change in the dominant mode of transport. We predict that power law avalanching will be observed whenever surface flow is dominated by clustered motion.

  9. Emplacement of rock avalanche material across saturated sediments, Southern Alp, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dufresne, A.; Davies, T. R.; McSaveney, M. J.

    2012-04-01

    The spreading of material from slope failure events is not only influenced by the volume and nature of the source material and the local topography, but also by the materials encountered in the runout path. In this study, evidence of complex interactions between rock avalanche and sedimentary runout path material were investigated at the 45 x 106 m3 long-runout (L: 4.8 km) Round Top rock avalanche deposit, New Zealand. It was sourced within myolinitic schists of the active strike-slip Alpine Fault. The narrow and in-failure-direction elongate source scarp is deep-seated, indicating slope failure was triggered by strong seismic activity. The most striking morphological deposit features are longitudinal ridges aligned radially to source. Trenching and geophysical surveys show bulldozed and sheared substrate material at ridge termini and laterally displaced sedimentary strata. The substrate failed at a minimum depth of 3 m indicating a ploughing motion of the ridges into the saturated material below. Internal avalanche compression features suggest deceleration behind the bulldozed substrate obstacle. Contorted fabric in material ahead of the ridge document substrate disruption by the overriding avalanche material deposited as the next down-motion hummock. Comparison with rock avalanches of similar volume but different emplacement environments places Round Top between longer runout avalanches emplaced over e.g. playa lake sediments and those with shorter travel distances, whose runout was apparently retarded by topographic obstacles or that entrained high-friction debris. These empirical observations indicate the importance of runout path materials on tentative trends in rock avalanche emplacement dynamics and runout behaviour.

  10. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States' pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012-2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (-€9,367 million), France (-€5,589 million), and, far behind them

  11. Analysts' earnings forecasts and international asset allocation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijgen, Carel; Plantinga, Auke

    1999-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to investigate whether financial analysts’ earnings forecasts are informative from the viewpoint of allocating investments across different stock markets. Therefore we develop a country forecast indicator reflecting the analysts’ prospects for specific stock markets. The

  12. Nanomechanics of slip avalanches in amorphous plasticity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Penghui; Dahmen, Karin A.; Kushima, Akihiro; Wright, Wendelin J.; Park, Harold S.; Short, Michael P.; Yip, Sidney

    2018-05-01

    Discrete stress relaxations (slip avalanches) in a model metallic glass under uniaxial compression are studied using a metadynamics algorithm for molecular simulation at experimental strain rates. The onset of yielding is observed at the first major stress drop, accompanied, upon analysis, by the formation of a single localized shear band region spanning the entire system. During the elastic response prior to yielding, low concentrations of shear transformation deformation events appear intermittently and spatially uncorrelated. During serrated flow following yielding, small stress drops occur interspersed between large drops. The simulation results point to a threshold value of stress dissipation as a characteristic feature separating major and minor avalanches consistent with mean-field modeling analysis and mechanical testing experiments. We further interpret this behavior to be a consequence of a nonlinear interplay of two prevailing mechanisms of amorphous plasticity, thermally activated atomic diffusion and stress-induced shear transformations, originally proposed by Spaepen and Argon, respectively. Probing the atomistic processes at widely separate strain rates gives insight to different modes of shear band formation: percolation of shear transformations versus crack-like propagation. Additionally a focus on crossover avalanche size has implications for nanomechanical modeling of spatially and temporally heterogeneous dynamics.

  13. Combining Diffusion Models and Macroeconomic Indicators with a Modified Genetic Programming Method: Implementation in Forecasting the Number of Mobile Telecommunications Subscribers in OECD Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantinos Salpasaranis

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a modified Genetic Programming method for forecasting the mobile telecommunications subscribers’ population. The method constitutes an expansion of the hybrid Genetic Programming (hGP method improved by the introduction of diffusion models for technological forecasting purposes in the initial population, such as the Logistic, Gompertz, and Bass, as well as the Bi-Logistic and LogInLog. In addition, the aforementioned functions and models expand the function set of hGP. The application of the method in combination with macroeconomic indicators such as Gross Domestic Product per Capita (GDPpC and Consumer Prices Index (CPI leads to the creation of forecasting models and scenarios for medium- and long-term level of predictability. The forecasting module of the program has also been improved with the multi-levelled use of the statistical indices as fitness functions and model selection indices. The implementation of the modified-hGP in the datasets of mobile subscribers in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD countries shows very satisfactory forecasting performance.

  14. Theory of suppressing avalanche process of carrier in short pulse laser irradiated dielectrics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deng, H. X., E-mail: hxdeng@uestc.edu.cn, E-mail: xtzu@uestc.edu.cn, E-mail: kaisun@umich.edu; Zu, X. T., E-mail: hxdeng@uestc.edu.cn, E-mail: xtzu@uestc.edu.cn, E-mail: kaisun@umich.edu; Xiang, X. [School of Physical Electronics, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 610054 (China); Zheng, W. G.; Yuan, X. D. [Research Center of Laser Fusion, China Academy of Engineering Physics, Mianyang 621900 (China); Sun, K., E-mail: hxdeng@uestc.edu.cn, E-mail: xtzu@uestc.edu.cn, E-mail: kaisun@umich.edu [Department of Materials Engineering and Sciences, University of Michigan, 413B Space Research Building, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-2143 (United States); Gao, F. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, P. O. Box 999, Richland, Washington 99352 (United States)

    2014-05-28

    A theory for controlling avalanche process of carrier during short pulse laser irradiation is proposed. We show that avalanche process of conduction band electrons (CBEs) is determined by the occupation number of phonons in dielectrics. The theory provides a way to suppress avalanche process and a direct judgment for the contribution of avalanche process and photon ionization process to the generation of CBEs. The obtained temperature dependent rate equation shows that the laser induced damage threshold of dielectrics, e.g., fused silica, increase nonlinearly with the decreases of temperature. Present theory predicts a new approach to improve the laser induced damage threshold of dielectrics.

  15. Avalanches in functional materials and geophysics

    CERN Document Server

    Saxena, Avadh; Planes, Antoni

    2017-01-01

    This book provides the state-of-the art of the present understanding of avalanche phenomena in both functional materials and geophysics. The main emphasis of the book is analyzing these apparently different problems within the common perspective of out-of-equilibrium phenomena displaying spatial and temporal complexity that occur in a broad range of scales. Many systems, when subjected to an external force, respond intermittently in the form of avalanches that often span over a wide range of sizes, energies and durations. This is often related to a class of critical behavior characterized by the absence of characteristic scales. Typical examples are magnetization processes, plastic deformation and failure occuring in functional materials. These phenomena share many similarities with seismicity arising from the earth crust failure due to stresses that originate from plate tectonics.

  16. Rockslide-debris avalanche of May 18, 1980, Mount St. Helens Volcano, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glicken, Harry

    1996-01-01

    This report provides a detailed picture of the rockslide-debris avalanche of the May 18, 1980, eruption of Mount St. Helens volcano. It provides a characterization of the deposit, a reinterpretation of the details of the first minutes of the eruption of May 18, and insight into the transport mechanism of the mass movement. Details of the rockslide event, as revealed by eyewitness photographs, are correlated with features of the deposit. The photographs show three slide blocks in the rockslide movement. Slide block I was triggered by a magnitude 5.1 earthquake at 8:32 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (P.D.T.). An exploding cryptodome burst through slide block II to produce the 'blast surge.' Slide block III consisted of many discrete failures that were carried out in continuing pyroclastic currents generated from the exploding cryptodome. The cryptodome continued to depressurize after slide block III, producing a blast deposit that rests on top of the debris-avalanche deposit. The hummocky 2.5 cubic kilometer debris-avalanche deposit consists of block facies (pieces of the pre-eruption Mount St. Helens transported relatively intact) and matrix facies (a mixture of rocks from the old mountain and cryptodome dacite). Block facies is divided into five lithologic units. Matrix facies was derived from the explosively generated current of slide block III as well as from disaggregation and mixing of debris-avalanche blocks. The mean density of the old cone was measured to be abut 20 percent greater than the mean density of the avalanche deposit. Density in the deposit does not decrease with distance which suggests that debris-avalanche blocks were dilated at the mountain, rather than during transport. Various grain-size parameters that show that clast size converges about a mean with distance suggest mixing during transport. The debris-avalanche flow can be considered a grain flow, where particles -- either debris-avalanche blocks or the clasts within the blocks -- collided and

  17. Trade Balances of the Asian Countries under Crisis: Forecast and Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingyo Cheong

    1998-06-01

    Full Text Available To overcome the financial crisis, we need to do some reform, such as to change the governmental and non-governmental structure, make sure the policy to be transparent, and remove restrictions, etc. All these measures can restore the confidence of foreign investors towards Korea. But to make balance of the trade surplus and keep foreign exchange reserve at a reasonable level, ensure foreign exchange and the security of financial department is one of the most urgent topics. Since the deep relationship of economy among countries in North-East Asia, financial crisis is not only the problem in Korea. It is already expended to the whole North-East Asia. This thesis shows the idea that we can forecast surplus in the trade balance scale, enlarge the trade balance of South Korea and activate export. It also shows that instead of the increase of export, the surplus is caused by the decrease of import. At this point of view, the number of surplus is not true. If the investment keeps decreasing like this, the foundation of Korean Economy will collapse.

  18. Statistical analysis and trends of wet snow avalanches in the French Alps over the period 1959-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naaim, Mohamed

    2017-04-01

    Since an avalanche contains a significant proportion of wet snow, its characteristics and its behavior change significantly (heterogeneous and polydisperse). Even if on a steep given slope, wet snow avalanches are slow. They can flow over gentle slopes and reach the same extensions as dry avalanches. To highlight the link between climate warming and the proliferation of wet snow avlanches, we crossed two well-documented avalanche databases: the permanent avalanche chronicle (EPA) and the meteorological re-analyzes. For each avalanche referenced in EPA, a moisture index I is buit. It represents the ratio of the thickness of the wet snow layer to the total snow thickness, at the date of the avalanche on the concerned massif at 2400 m.a.s.l. The daily and annual proportion of avalanches exceeding a given threshold of I are calculated for each massif of the French alps. The statistical distribution of wet avalanches per massif is calculated over the period 1959-2009. The statistical quantities are also calculated over two successive periods of the same duration 1959-1984 and 1984-2009, and the annual evolution of the proportion of wet avalanches is studied using time-series tools to detect potential rupture or trends. This study showed that about 77% of avalanches on the French alpine massif mobilize dry snow. The probability of having an avalanche of a moisture index greater than 10 % in a given year is 0.2. This value varies from one massif to another. The analysis between the two successive periods showed a significant growth of wet avalanches on 20 massifs and a decrease on 3 massifs. The study of time-series confirmed these trends, which are of the inter-annual variability level.

  19. Lumped transmission line avalanche pulser

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, Rex

    1995-01-01

    A lumped linear avalanche transistor pulse generator utilizes stacked transistors in parallel within a stage and couples a plurality of said stages, in series with increasing zener diode limited voltages per stage and decreasing balanced capacitance load per stage to yield a high voltage, high and constant current, very short pulse.

  20. Six rules for accurate effective forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saffo, Paul

    2007-01-01

    The primary goal of forecasting is to identify the full range of possibilities facing a company, society, or the world at large. In this article, Saffo demythologizes the forecasting process to help executives become sophisticated and participative consumers of forecasts, rather than passive absorbers. He illustrates how to use forecasts to at once broaden understanding of possibilities and narrow the decision space within which one must exercise intuition. The events of 9/11, for example, were a much bigger surprise than they should have been. After all, airliners flown into monuments were the stuff of Tom Clancy novels in the 1990s, and everyone knew that terrorists had a very personal antipathy toward the World Trade Center. So why was 9/11 such a surprise? What can executives do to avoid being blind-sided by other such wild cards, be they radical shifts in markets or the seemingly sudden emergence of disruptive technologies? In describing what forecasters are trying to achieve, Saffo outlines six simple, commonsense rules that smart managers should observe as they embark on a voyage of discovery with professional forecasters. Map a cone of uncertainty, he advises, look for the S curve, embrace the things that don't fit, hold strong opinions weakly, look back twice as far as you look forward, and know when not to make a forecast.

  1. Information processing occurs via critical avalanches in a model of the primary visual cortex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bortolotto, G. S.; Girardi-Schappo, M.; Gonsalves, J. J.; Tragtenberg, M. H. R.; Pinto, L. T.

    2016-01-01

    We study a new biologically motivated model for the Macaque monkey primary visual cortex which presents power-law avalanches after a visual stimulus. The signal propagates through all the layers of the model via avalanches that depend on network structure and synaptic parameter. We identify four different avalanche profiles as a function of the excitatory postsynaptic potential. The avalanches follow a size-duration scaling relation and present critical exponents that match experiments. The structure of the network gives rise to a regime of two characteristic spatial scales, one of which vanishes in the thermodynamic limit. (paper)

  2. Avalanches in the Bean critical-state model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barford, W.

    1997-01-01

    A macroscopic equation of motion for the flux density in dirty type-II superconductors is introduced. The flux density is subject to various types of spatially varying pinning force. When there is no stick-slip dynamics, i.e., when the static pinning force equals the dynamic pinning force, it is shown that in both one and two dimensions an increase in the surface magnetic field leads to an overall height change and hence to a change in magnetization equal to the change in the surface magnetic field. More interesting behavior occurs on introducing stick-slip dynamics, i.e., when the static pinning force exceeds the dynamic pinning force. In this limit a distribution of avalanche sizes over four orders of magnitude is found for a 100x100 lattice. Apart from the anomalous behavior at large sizes, this is shown to fit a distribution of the form P(s)∼s -ν exp(-s/α), where s is the avalanche size. The anomalous behavior for large sizes corresponds to avalanches which involve most of the lattice and, hence, cause the flux to open-quotes slide over the edge,close quotes as detected by a change in the edge magnetization. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

  3. High Dynamic Range Imaging at the Quantum Limit with Single Photon Avalanche Diode-Based Image Sensors †

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattioli Della Rocca, Francescopaolo

    2018-01-01

    This paper examines methods to best exploit the High Dynamic Range (HDR) of the single photon avalanche diode (SPAD) in a high fill-factor HDR photon counting pixel that is scalable to megapixel arrays. The proposed method combines multi-exposure HDR with temporal oversampling in-pixel. We present a silicon demonstration IC with 96 × 40 array of 8.25 µm pitch 66% fill-factor SPAD-based pixels achieving >100 dB dynamic range with 3 back-to-back exposures (short, mid, long). Each pixel sums 15 bit-planes or binary field images internally to constitute one frame providing 3.75× data compression, hence the 1k frames per second (FPS) output off-chip represents 45,000 individual field images per second on chip. Two future projections of this work are described: scaling SPAD-based image sensors to HDR 1 MPixel formats and shrinking the pixel pitch to 1–3 µm. PMID:29641479

  4. Previous Mental Disorders and Subsequent Onset of Chronic Back or Neck Pain: Findings From 19 Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viana, Maria Carmen; Lim, Carmen C W; Garcia Pereira, Flavia; Aguilar-Gaxiola, Sergio; Alonso, Jordi; Bruffaerts, Ronny; de Jonge, Peter; Caldas-de-Almeida, Jose Miguel; O'Neill, Siobhan; Stein, Dan J; Al-Hamzawi, Ali; Benjet, Corina; Cardoso, Graça; Florescu, Silvia; de Girolamo, Giovanni; Haro, Josep Maria; Hu, Chiyi; Kovess-Masfety, Viviane; Levinson, Daphna; Piazza, Marina; Posada-Villa, José; Rabczenko, Daniel; Kessler, Ronald C; Scott, Kate M

    2018-01-01

    Associations between depression/anxiety and pain are well established, but its directionality is not clear. We examined the associations between temporally previous mental disorders and subsequent self-reported chronic back/neck pain onset, and investigated the variation in the strength of associations according to timing of events during the life course, and according to gender. Data were from population-based household surveys conducted in 19 countries (N = 52,095). Lifetime prevalence and age of onset of 16 mental disorders according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, and the occurrence and age of onset of back/neck pain were assessed using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Survival analyses estimated the associations between first onset of mental disorders and subsequent back/neck pain onset. All mental disorders were positively associated with back/neck pain in bivariate analyses; most (12 of 16) remained so after adjusting for psychiatric comorbidity, with a clear dose-response relationship between number of mental disorders and subsequent pain. Early-onset disorders were stronger predictors of pain; when adjusting for psychiatric comorbidity, this remained the case for depression/dysthymia. No gender differences were observed. In conclusion, individuals with mental disorder, beyond depression and anxiety, are at higher risk of developing subsequent back/neck pain, stressing the importance of early detection of mental disorders, and highlight the need of assessing back/neck pain in mental health clinical settings. Previous mental disorders according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition are positively associated with subsequent back/neck pain onset, with a clear dose-response relationship between number of mental disorders and subsequent pain. Earlier-onset mental disorders are stronger predictors of subsequent pain onset, compared with later-onset disorders

  5. Snow-avalanche impact craters in southern Norway: Their morphology and dynamics compared with small terrestrial meteorite craters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, John A.; Owen, Geraint; McEwen, Lindsey J.; Shakesby, Richard A.; Hill, Jennifer L.; Vater, Amber E.; Ratcliffe, Anna C.

    2017-11-01

    This regional inventory and study of a globally uncommon landform type reveals similarities in form and process between craters produced by snow-avalanche and meteorite impacts. Fifty-two snow-avalanche impact craters (mean diameter 85 m, range 10-185 m) were investigated through field research, aerial photographic interpretation and analysis of topographic maps. The craters are sited on valley bottoms or lake margins at the foot of steep avalanche paths (α = 28-59°), generally with an easterly aspect, where the slope of the final 200 m of the avalanche path (β) typically exceeds 15°. Crater diameter correlates with the area of the avalanche start zone, which points to snow-avalanche volume as the main control on crater size. Proximal erosional scars ('blast zones') up to 40 m high indicate up-range ejection of material from the crater, assisted by air-launch of the avalanches and impulse waves generated by their impact into water-filled craters. Formation of distal mounds up to 12 m high of variable shape is favoured by more dispersed down-range deposition of ejecta. Key to the development of snow-avalanche impact craters is the repeated occurrence of topographically-focused snow avalanches that impact with a steep angle on unconsolidated sediment. Secondary craters or pits, a few metres in diameter, are attributed to the impact of individual boulders or smaller bodies of snow ejected from the main avalanche. The process of crater formation by low-density, low-velocity, large-volume snow flows occurring as multiple events is broadly comparable with cratering by single-event, high-density, high-velocity, small-volume projectiles such as small meteorites. Simple comparative modelling of snow-avalanche events associated with a crater of average size (diameter 85 m) indicates that the kinetic energy of a single snow-avalanche impact event is two orders of magnitude less than that of a single meteorite-impact event capable of producing a crater of similar size

  6. Validating numerical simulations of snow avalanches using dendrochronology: the Cerro Ventana event in Northern Patagonia, Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Casteller

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available The damage caused by snow avalanches to property and human lives is underestimated in many regions around the world, especially where this natural hazard remains poorly documented. One such region is the Argentinean Andes, where numerous settlements are threatened almost every winter by large snow avalanches. On 1 September 2002, the largest tragedy in the history of Argentinean mountaineering took place at Cerro Ventana, Northern Patagonia: nine persons were killed and seven others injured by a snow avalanche. In this paper, we combine both numerical modeling and dendrochronological investigations to reconstruct this event. Using information released by local governmental authorities and compiled in the field, the avalanche event was numerically simulated using the avalanche dynamics programs AVAL-1D and RAMMS. Avalanche characteristics, such as extent and date were determined using dendrochronological techniques. Model simulation results were compared with documentary and tree-ring evidences for the 2002 event. Our results show a good agreement between the simulated projection of the avalanche and its reconstructed extent using tree-ring records. Differences between the observed and the simulated avalanche, principally related to the snow height deposition in the run-out zone, are mostly attributed to the low resolution of the digital elevation model used to represent the valley topography. The main contributions of this study are (1 to provide the first calibration of numerical avalanche models for the Patagonian Andes and (2 to highlight the potential of Nothofagus pumilio tree-ring records to reconstruct past snow-avalanche events in time and space. Future research should focus on testing this combined approach in other forested regions of the Andes.

  7. Massive Formation of Equiaxed Crystals by Avalanches of Mushy Zone Segments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, A.; Stefan-Kharicha, M.; Kharicha, A.; Wu, M.

    2017-06-01

    It is well known that the growth and motion of equiaxed crystals govern important microstructural features, especially in larger castings such as heavy ingots. To determine the origin of the equiaxed crystals, heterogeneous nucleation, and/or fragmentation of dendrite arms from columnar regions are often discussed. In the present study, we demonstrate that under certain conditions relatively large areas of mushy regions slide downward and form spectacular crystal avalanches. These avalanches crumble into thousands of dendritic fragments, whereby the larger fragments immediately sediment and the smaller proceed to behave as equiaxed crystals. Traces of such crystal avalanches can be seen by conspicuous equiaxed layers in the lower part of the casting. From the arguments in the discussion, it is believed that such a phenomenon may occur in alloys which reveal an upward solutal buoyancy in the interdendritic mush. This would include certain steels and other alloys such as Cu-Al, Pb-Sn, or Ni-Al-alloys. Moreover, the occurrence of crystal avalanches contribute to the formation of V-segregations.

  8. Forecasting of Currency Crises in East Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi-Young Song

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we have developed a forecasting system for currency crisis in East Asia based on a signaling approach. Our system uses 15 monthly indicators of five East Asian countries including Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand that were severely hit by the currency crisis in 1997. We investigate the performance of the system through deploying out-of-sample forecasting for the periods both before and after the 1997 East Asian currency crisis. Unlike the existing research based on the signaling approach, our out-of-sample forecasting does not fix the in-sample period. The out-of-sample forecasting between July 1995 and June 1997 shows that prior to breakout of the crisis, several indicators including real exchange rates and exports sent frequent warnings to all crisis-hit East Asian countries except the Philippines. This may indicate that a signaling-based early warning system for currency crisis could have been an useful method of forecasting the East Asian crisis. On the other hand, we also find that our forecasting system often generates warning signals during the out-of-sample period between July 1999 and June 2001. Since we have not observed any currency crisis in this region after 1998, these are all false alarms, indicating that our system may be seriously exposed to the type II error. We can, however, mitigate this problem if we adjust the optimal critical values of indicators depending on the preferences of forecasting system manager.

  9. Radiation Detection Measurements with a New 'Buried Junction' Silicon Avalanche Photodiode

    CERN Document Server

    Lecomte, R; Rouleau, D; Dautet, H; McIntyre, R J; McSween, D; Webb, P

    1999-01-01

    An improved version of a recently developed 'Buried Junction' avalanche photodiode (APD), designed for use with scintillators, is described and characterized. This device, also called the 'Reverse APD', is designed to have a wide depletion layer and thus low capacitance, but to have high gain only for e-h pairs generated within the first few microns of the depletion layer. Thus it has high gain for light from scintillators emitting in the 400-600 nm range, with relatively low dark current noise and it is relatively insensitive to minimum ionizing particles (MIPs). An additional feature is that the metallurgical junction is at the back of the wafer, leaving the front surface free to be coupled to a scintillator without fear of junction contamination. The modifications made in this device, as compared with the earlier diode, have resulted in a lower excess noise factor, lower dark current, and much-reduced trapping. The electrical and optical characteristics of this device are described and measurements of ener...

  10. A concept for optimizing avalanche rescue strategies using a Monte Carlo simulation approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingrid Reiweger

    Full Text Available Recent technical and strategical developments have increased the survival chances for avalanche victims. Still hundreds of people, primarily recreationists, get caught and buried by snow avalanches every year. About 100 die each year in the European Alps-and many more worldwide. Refining concepts for avalanche rescue means to optimize the procedures such that the survival chances are maximized in order to save the greatest possible number of lives. Avalanche rescue includes several parameters related to terrain, natural hazards, the people affected by the event, the rescuers, and the applied search and rescue equipment. The numerous parameters and their complex interaction make it unrealistic for a rescuer to take, in the urgency of the situation, the best possible decisions without clearly structured, easily applicable decision support systems. In order to analyse which measures lead to the best possible survival outcome in the complex environment of an avalanche accident, we present a numerical approach, namely a Monte Carlo simulation. We demonstrate the application of Monte Carlo simulations for two typical, yet tricky questions in avalanche rescue: (1 calculating how deep one should probe in the first passage of a probe line depending on search area, and (2 determining for how long resuscitation should be performed on a specific patient while others are still buried. In both cases, we demonstrate that optimized strategies can be calculated with the Monte Carlo method, provided that the necessary input data are available. Our Monte Carlo simulations also suggest that with a strict focus on the "greatest good for the greatest number", today's rescue strategies can be further optimized in the best interest of patients involved in an avalanche accident.

  11. Investigation of avalanche photodiodes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Si Mohand, D.; Benhammou, Y.; Depasse, P.; Goyot, M.; Ille, B.; Linard, E.; Martin, F.; Musienko, Y.

    1996-06-01

    Some characteristics and performances of a set of nine Hamamatsu avalanche photodiodes have been investigated. These APDs have equipped a small 3x3 PbWO{sub 4} crystal matrix in X3 beam during the summer of 1995. This note summarizes the main results of this work. An electromagnetic calorimeter with a high resolution is necessary to search for the Higgs if it has a mass between 80 and 160 GeV. A PbWO{sub 4} crystal option has been chosen by the CMS collaboration to achieve this task. The light is collected and converted into an electric charge by an Avalanche Photodiode (APD) followed by a fast preamplifier. The advantage of the APDs is that they are not sensitive to the strong magnetic field when compared to photomultipliers and they are a small nuclear counter effect when compared to PIN diodes. In this study, we have tested nine low capacitance Hamamatsu APDs (S5345) received in spring, 1995 with an area of 0.2 cm{sup 2}. We have measured the capacitance and dark current for each APD. The gain measurements have also been done with gamma sources, continuous and pulsed light. The gain sensitivity versus bias and temperature have also been investigated succinctly. (author). 8 refs., 16 figs., 1 tab.

  12. Investigation of avalanche photodiodes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Si Mohand, D.; Benhammou, Y.; Depasse, P.; Goyot, M.; Ille, B.; Linard, E.; Martin, F.; Musienko, Y.

    1996-06-01

    Some characteristics and performances of a set of nine Hamamatsu avalanche photodiodes have been investigated. These APDs have equipped a small 3x3 PbWO 4 crystal matrix in X3 beam during the summer of 1995. This note summarizes the main results of this work. An electromagnetic calorimeter with a high resolution is necessary to search for the Higgs if it has a mass between 80 and 160 GeV. A PbWO 4 crystal option has been chosen by the CMS collaboration to achieve this task. The light is collected and converted into an electric charge by an Avalanche Photodiode (APD) followed by a fast preamplifier. The advantage of the APDs is that they are not sensitive to the strong magnetic field when compared to photomultipliers and they are a small nuclear counter effect when compared to PIN diodes. In this study, we have tested nine low capacitance Hamamatsu APDs (S5345) received in spring, 1995 with an area of 0.2 cm 2 . We have measured the capacitance and dark current for each APD. The gain measurements have also been done with gamma sources, continuous and pulsed light. The gain sensitivity versus bias and temperature have also been investigated succinctly. (author). 8 refs., 16 figs., 1 tab

  13. Modeling the influence of snow cover temperature and water content on wet-snow avalanche runout

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Vera Valero

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Snow avalanche motion is strongly dependent on the temperature and water content of the snow cover. In this paper we use a snow cover model, driven by measured meteorological data, to set the initial and boundary conditions for wet-snow avalanche calculations. The snow cover model provides estimates of snow height, density, temperature and liquid water content. This information is used to prescribe fracture heights and erosion heights for an avalanche dynamics model. We compare simulated runout distances with observed avalanche deposition fields using a contingency table analysis. Our analysis of the simulations reveals a large variability in predicted runout for tracks with flat terraces and gradual slope transitions to the runout zone. Reliable estimates of avalanche mass (height and density in the release and erosion zones are identified to be more important than an exact specification of temperature and water content. For wet-snow avalanches, this implies that the layers where meltwater accumulates in the release zone must be identified accurately as this defines the height of the fracture slab and therefore the release mass. Advanced thermomechanical models appear to be better suited to simulate wet-snow avalanche inundation areas than existing guideline procedures if and only if accurate snow cover information is available.

  14. Energy demand forecasting method based on international statistical data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glanc, Z.; Kerner, A.

    1997-01-01

    Poland is in a transition phase from a centrally planned to a market economy; data collected under former economic conditions do not reflect a market economy. Final energy demand forecasts are based on the assumption that the economic transformation in Poland will gradually lead the Polish economy, technologies and modes of energy use, to the same conditions as mature market economy countries. The starting point has a significant influence on the future energy demand and supply structure: final energy consumption per capita in 1992 was almost half the average of OECD countries; energy intensity, based on Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) and referred to GDP, is more than 3 times higher in Poland. A method of final energy demand forecasting based on regression analysis is described in this paper. The input data are: output of macroeconomic and population growth forecast; time series 1970-1992 of OECD countries concerning both macroeconomic characteristics and energy consumption; and energy balance of Poland for the base year of the forecast horizon. (author). 1 ref., 19 figs, 4 tabs

  15. Energy demand forecasting method based on international statistical data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glanc, Z; Kerner, A [Energy Information Centre, Warsaw (Poland)

    1997-09-01

    Poland is in a transition phase from a centrally planned to a market economy; data collected under former economic conditions do not reflect a market economy. Final energy demand forecasts are based on the assumption that the economic transformation in Poland will gradually lead the Polish economy, technologies and modes of energy use, to the same conditions as mature market economy countries. The starting point has a significant influence on the future energy demand and supply structure: final energy consumption per capita in 1992 was almost half the average of OECD countries; energy intensity, based on Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) and referred to GDP, is more than 3 times higher in Poland. A method of final energy demand forecasting based on regression analysis is described in this paper. The input data are: output of macroeconomic and population growth forecast; time series 1970-1992 of OECD countries concerning both macroeconomic characteristics and energy consumption; and energy balance of Poland for the base year of the forecast horizon. (author). 1 ref., 19 figs, 4 tabs.

  16. Comparison of landslide forecasting services in Piedmont (Italy and Norway, illustrated by events in late spring 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Devoli

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Only few countries operate systematically national and regional forecasting services for rainfall-induced landslides (i.e., debris flows, debris avalanches and shallow slides, among them Norway and Italy. In Norway, the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE operates a landslide forecasting service at national level. In Italy, the Regional Agency for Environmental Protection, ARPA Piemonte, is responsible for issuing landslide warnings for the Piedmont region, located in northwestern Italy. A daily hazard assessment is performed, describing both expected awareness level and type of landslide hazard for a selected warning region. Both services provide regular landslide hazard assessments based on a combination of quantitative thresholds and daily rainfall forecasts together with qualitative expert analysis. Daily warning reports are published at http://www.arpa.piemonte.gov.it/rischinaturali and http://www.varsom.no, last access: 7 May 2018. In spring 2013, ARPA Piemonte and the NVE issued warnings for hydro-meteorological hazards due to the arrival of a deep and large low-pressure system, called herein Vb cyclone. This kind of weather system is known to produce the largest floods in Europe. Less known is that this weather pattern can trigger landslides as well. In this study, we present the experiences of NVE and ARPA Piemonte in the late spring of 2013. The Vb cyclone influenced weather throughout Europe over a long period, from the end of April until the beginning of June 2013. However, major affects were observed in the first half part of this period in Piedmont, while in Norway, major damage was reported from 15 May to 2 June 2013. Floods and landslides significantly damaged roads, railways, buildings and other infrastructure in both countries. This case study shows that large synoptic pattern can produce different natural hazards in different parts of Europe, from sandstorms at low latitudes, to flood and landslides when

  17. Hybrid phase transition into an absorbing state: Percolation and avalanches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Deokjae; Choi, S.; Stippinger, M.; Kertész, J.; Kahng, B.

    2016-04-01

    Interdependent networks are more fragile under random attacks than simplex networks, because interlayer dependencies lead to cascading failures and finally to a sudden collapse. This is a hybrid phase transition (HPT), meaning that at the transition point the order parameter has a jump but there are also critical phenomena related to it. Here we study these phenomena on the Erdős-Rényi and the two-dimensional interdependent networks and show that the hybrid percolation transition exhibits two kinds of critical behaviors: divergence of the fluctuations of the order parameter and power-law size distribution of finite avalanches at a transition point. At the transition point global or "infinite" avalanches occur, while the finite ones have a power law size distribution; thus the avalanche statistics also has the nature of a HPT. The exponent βm of the order parameter is 1 /2 under general conditions, while the value of the exponent γm characterizing the fluctuations of the order parameter depends on the system. The critical behavior of the finite avalanches can be described by another set of exponents, βa and γa. These two critical behaviors are coupled by a scaling law: 1 -βm=γa .

  18. High-Gain Avalanche Rushing amorphous Photoconductor (HARP) detector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tanioka, K. [NHK Science and Technical Research Laboratories, 1-10-11 Kinuta, Setagaya-ku, Tokyo 157-8510 (Japan)], E-mail: tanioka.k-jg@nhk.or.jp

    2009-09-01

    We have been studying a very sensitive image sensor since the early 1980s. In 1985, the author found for the first time that an experimental pickup tube with an amorphous selenium photoconductive target exhibits high sensitivity with excellent picture quality because of a continuous and stable avalanche multiplication phenomenon. We named the pickup tube with an amorphous photoconductive layer operating in the avalanche-mode 'HARP': High-gain Avalanche Rushing amorphous Photoconductor. A color camera equipped with the HARP pickup tubes has a maximum sensitivity of 11 lx at F8. This means that the HARP camera is about 100 times as sensitive as that of CCD camera for broadcasting. This ultrahigh-sensitivity HARP pickup tube is a powerful tool for reporting breaking news at night and other low-light conditions, the production of scientific programs, and numerous other applications, including medical diagnoses, biotech research, and nighttime surveillance. In addition, since the HARP target can convert X-rays into electrons directly, it should be possible to exploit this capability to produce X-ray imaging devices with unparalleled levels of resolution and sensitivity.

  19. Methodology to Forecast Volume and Cost of Cancer Drugs in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yehoda M. Martei

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs, frequent outages of the stock of cancer drugs undermine cancer care delivery and are potentially fatal for patients with cancer. The aim of this study is to describe a methodologic approach to forecast chemotherapy volume and estimate cost that can be readily updated and applied in most LMICs. Methods: Prerequisite data for forecasting are population-based incidence data and cost estimates per unit of drug to be ordered. We used the supplementary guidelines from the WHO list of essential medicines for cancer to predict treatment plans and ordering patterns. We used de-identified aggregate data from the Botswana National Cancer Registry to estimate incident cases. The WHO Management Sciences for Health International Price Indicator was used to estimate unit costs per drug. Results: Chemotherapy volume required for incident cancer cases was estimated as the product of the standardized dose required to complete a full treatment regimen per patient, with a given cancer diagnosis and stage, multiplied by the total number of incident cancer cases with the respective diagnosis. The estimated chemotherapy costs to treat the 10 most common cancers in the public health care sector of Botswana is approximately 2.3 million US dollars. An estimated 66% of the budget is allocated to costs of rituximab and trastuzumab alone, which are used by approximately 10% of the cancer population. Conclusion: This method provides a reproducible approach to forecast chemotherapy volume and cost in LMICs. The chemotherapy volume and cost outputs of this methodology provide key stakeholders with valuable information that can guide budget estimation, resource allocation, and drug-price negotiations for cancer treatment. Ultimately, this will minimize drug shortages or outages and reduce potential loss of lives that result from an erratic drug supply.

  20. A grey neural network and input-output combined forecasting model. Primary energy consumption forecasts in Spanish economic sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Xiuli; Moreno, Blanca; García, Ana Salomé

    2016-01-01

    A combined forecast of Grey forecasting method and neural network back propagation model, which is called Grey Neural Network and Input-Output Combined Forecasting Model (GNF-IO model), is proposed. A real case of energy consumption forecast is used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The GNF-IO model predicts coal, crude oil, natural gas, renewable and nuclear primary energy consumption volumes by Spain's 36 sub-sectors from 2010 to 2015 according to three different GDP growth scenarios (optimistic, baseline and pessimistic). Model test shows that the proposed model has higher simulation and forecasting accuracy on energy consumption than Grey models separately and other combination methods. The forecasts indicate that the primary energies as coal, crude oil and natural gas will represent on average the 83.6% percent of the total of primary energy consumption, raising concerns about security of supply and energy cost and adding risk for some industrial production processes. Thus, Spanish industry must speed up its transition to an energy-efficiency economy, achieving a cost reduction and increase in the level of self-supply. - Highlights: • Forecasting System Using Grey Models combined with Input-Output Models is proposed. • Primary energy consumption in Spain is used to validate the model. • The grey-based combined model has good forecasting performance. • Natural gas will represent the majority of the total of primary energy consumption. • Concerns about security of supply, energy cost and industry competitiveness are raised.

  1. High gain multigap avalanche detectors for Cerenkov ring imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilmore, R.S.; Lavender, W.M.; Leith, D.W.G.S.; Williams, S.H.

    1980-10-01

    We report on a continuing study of multigap parallel plate avalanche chambers, primarily as photoelectron detectors for use with Cerenkov ring imaging counters. By suitable control of the fields in successive gaps and by introducing screens to reduce photon feedback to the cathode the gain many be increased considerably. We have obtained gains in excess of 6 x 10/sup 7/ for photoelectrons with a good pulse height spectrum and expect to increase this further. We discuss the use of resistive anodes to give avalanche positions in two dimensions by charge division.

  2. A Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and the Cuckoo Search Algorithm: A Case Study for Power Load

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiani Heng

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Power load forecasting always plays a considerable role in the management of a power system, as accurate forecasting provides a guarantee for the daily operation of the power grid. It has been widely demonstrated in forecasting that hybrid forecasts can improve forecast performance compared with individual forecasts. In this paper, a hybrid forecasting approach, comprising Empirical Mode Decomposition, CSA (Cuckoo Search Algorithm, and WNN (Wavelet Neural Network, is proposed. This approach constructs a more valid forecasting structure and more stable results than traditional ANN (Artificial Neural Network models such as BPNN (Back Propagation Neural Network, GABPNN (Back Propagation Neural Network Optimized by Genetic Algorithm, and WNN. To evaluate the forecasting performance of the proposed model, a half-hourly power load in New South Wales of Australia is used as a case study in this paper. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid model is not only simple but also able to satisfactorily approximate the actual power load and can be an effective tool in planning and dispatch for smart grids.

  3. Dynamic avalanche behavior of power MOSFETs and IGBTs under unclamped inductive switching conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu Jiang; Tian Xiaoli; Lu Shuojin; Zhou Hongyu; Zhu Yangjun; Han Zhengsheng

    2013-01-01

    The ability of high-voltage power MOSFETs and IGBTs to withstand avalanche events under unclamped inductive switching (UIS) conditions is measured. This measurement is to investigate and compare the dynamic avalanche failure behavior of the power MOSFETs and the IGBT, which occur at different current conditions. The UIS measurement results at different current conditions show that the main failure reason of the power MOSFETs is related to the parasitic bipolar transistor, which leads to the deterioration of the avalanche reliability of power MOSFETs. However, the results of the IGBT show two different failure behaviors. At high current mode, the failure behavior is similar to the power MOSFETs situation. But at low current mode, the main failure mechanism is related to the parasitic thyristor activity during the occurrence of the avalanche process and which is in good agreement with the experiment result. (semiconductor devices)

  4. A mathematical model to forecast uranium production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camisani-Calzolari, F.A.G.M.

    1987-01-01

    The uranium production forecasting program described in this paper projects production from reasonably assured, estimated additional and speculative resources in the cost categories of less than $130/kg U. Originally designed to handle South African production, it has been expanded and redimensioned using available published information to forecast production for countries of the Western World. The program forecasts production from up to 400 plants over a period of fifty years and has built-in production models derived from documented historical data of the more important uranium provinces. It is particularly suitable to assess production capabilities on a national and global scale where variations in outputs for the individual plants tend to even out. The program is aimed at putting the uranium potential of any one country into a realistic perspective, and it could thus be useful for planning purposes and marketing strategies

  5. New advances for modelling the debris avalanches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuomo, Sabatino; Cascini, Leonardo; Pastor, Manuel; Castorino, Giuseppe Claudio

    2013-04-01

    Flow-like landslides are a major global hazard and they occur worldwide causing a large number of casualties, significant structural damages to property and infrastructures as well as economic losses. When involving open slopes, these landslides often occur in triangular source areas where initial slides turn into avalanches through further failures and/or eventual soil entrainment. This paper deals with the numerical modelling of the propagation stage of debris avalanches which provides information such as the propagation pattern of the mobilized material, its velocity, thickness and run-out distance. In the paper, a "depth integrated" model is used which allows: i) adequately taking into account the irregular topography of real slopes which greatly affect the propagation stage and ii) using a less time consuming model than fully 3D approaches. The used model is named "GeoFlow_SPH" and it was formerly applied to theoretical, experimental and real case histories (Pastor et al., 2009; Cascini et al., 2012). In this work the behavior of debris avalanches is analyzed with special emphasis on the apical angle, one of the main features of this type of landslide, in relation to soil rheology, hillslope geometry and features of triggering area. Furthermore, the role of erosion has been investigated with reference to the uppermost parts of open slopes with a different steepness. These analyses are firstly carried out for simplified benchmark slopes, using both water-like materials (with no shear strength) and debris type materials. Then, three important case studies of Campania region (Cervinara, Nocera Inferiore e Sarno) are analyzed where debris avalanches involved pyroclastic soils originated from the eruptive products of Vesusius volcano. The results achieved for both benchmark slopes and real case histories outline the key role played by the erosion on the whole propagation stage of debris avalanches. The results are particularly satisfactory since they indicate the

  6. Scaling behavior of individual barkhausen avalanches in nucleation-mediated magnetization reversal processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Im, Mi-Young; Fischer, Peter; Kim, Dong-Hyun; Shin, Sung-Chul

    2009-11-09

    We report the scaling behavior of Barkhausen avalanches along the hysteresis loop of a CoCrPt alloy film with perpendicular magnetic anisotropy for every field step of 200 Oe. Individual Barkhausen avalanches are directly observed via high-resolution soft X-ray microscopy with a spatial resolution of 15 nm. The Barkhausen avalanches exhibit a power-law scaling behavior, where the scaling exponent of the power-law distribution drastically changes from 1 {+-} 0.04 to 1.47 {+-} 0.03 as the applied magnetic field approaches the coercivity of the CoCrPt film. We infer that this is due to the coupling of adjacent domains.

  7. Angle sensitive single photon avalanche diode

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Changhyuk, E-mail: cl678@cornell.edu; Johnson, Ben, E-mail: bcj25@cornell.edu; Molnar, Alyosha, E-mail: am699@cornell.edu [Electrical and Computer Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14850 (United States)

    2015-06-08

    An ideal light sensor would provide exact information on intensity, timing, location, and angle of incoming photons. Single photon avalanche diodes (SPADs) provide such desired high (single photon) sensitivity with precise time information and can be implemented at a pixel-scale to form an array to extract spatial information. Furthermore, recent work has demonstrated photodiode-based structures (combined with micro-lenses or diffraction gratings) that are capable of encoding both spatial and angular information of incident light. In this letter, we describe the implementation of such a grating structure on SPADs to realize a pixel-scale angle-sensitive single photon avalanche diode (A-SPAD) built in a standard CMOS process. While the underlying SPAD structure provides high sensitivity, the time information of the two layers of diffraction gratings above offers angle-sensitivity. Such a unique combination of SPAD and diffraction gratings expands the sensing dimensions to pave a path towards lens-less 3-D imaging and light-field time-of-flight imaging.

  8. First Townsend coefficient of organic vapour in avalanche counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sernicki, J.

    1990-01-01

    A new concept is presented in the paper for implementing the proven method of determining the first Townsend coefficient (α) of gases using an avalanche counter. The A and B gas constants, interrelated by the expression α/p=A exp[-B/(K/p)], are analyzed. Parallel-plate avalanche counters (PPAC) with an electrode spacing d from 0.1 to 0.4 cm have been employed for the investigation, arranged to register low-energy alpha particles at n-heptane vapour pressures of p≥5 Torr. An in-depth discussion is given, covering the veracity and the behaviour vs K/p, of the n-heptane A and B constants determined at reduced electric-field intensity values ranging from 173.5 to 940 V/cm Torr; the constants have been found to depend upon d. The results of the investigation are compared to available data of the α coefficient of organic vapours used in avalanche counters. The PPAC method of determining α reveals some imperfections at very low values of the pd product. (orig.)

  9. AN MHD AVALANCHE IN A MULTI-THREADED CORONAL LOOP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hood, A. W.; Cargill, P. J.; Tam, K. V. [School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, Fife, KY16 9SS (United Kingdom); Browning, P. K., E-mail: awh@st-andrews.ac.uk [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL (United Kingdom)

    2016-01-20

    For the first time, we demonstrate how an MHD avalanche might occur in a multithreaded coronal loop. Considering 23 non-potential magnetic threads within a loop, we use 3D MHD simulations to show that only one thread needs to be unstable in order to start an avalanche even when the others are below marginal stability. This has significant implications for coronal heating in that it provides for energy dissipation with a trigger mechanism. The instability of the unstable thread follows the evolution determined in many earlier investigations. However, once one stable thread is disrupted, it coalesces with a neighboring thread and this process disrupts other nearby threads. Coalescence with these disrupted threads then occurs leading to the disruption of yet more threads as the avalanche develops. Magnetic energy is released in discrete bursts as the surrounding stable threads are disrupted. The volume integrated heating, as a function of time, shows short spikes suggesting that the temporal form of the heating is more like that of nanoflares than of constant heating.

  10. Observation of the Avalanche of Runaway Electrons in Air in a Strong Electric Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurevich, A. V.; Mesyats, G. A.; Zybin, K. P.; Yalandin, M. I.; Reutova, A. G.; Shpak, V. G.; Shunailov, S. A.

    2012-08-01

    The generation of an avalanche of runaway electrons is demonstrated for the first time in a laboratory experiment. Two flows of runaway electrons are formed sequentially in an extended air discharge gap at the stage of delay of a pulsed breakdown. The first, picosecond, runaway electron flow is emitted in the cathode region where the field is enhanced. Being accelerated in the gap, this beam generates electrons due to impact ionization. These secondary electrons form a delayed avalanche of runaway electrons if the field is strong enough. The properties of the avalanche correspond to the existing notions about the runaway breakdown in air. The measured current of the avalanche exceeds up to an order the current of the initiating electron beam.

  11. Evaluating terrain based criteria for snow avalanche exposure ratings using GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delparte, Donna; Jamieson, Bruce; Waters, Nigel

    2010-05-01

    Snow avalanche terrain in backcountry regions of Canada is increasingly being assessed based upon the Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES). ATES is a terrain based classification introduced in 2004 by Parks Canada to identify "simple", "challenging" and "complex" backcountry areas. The ATES rating system has been applied to well over 200 backcountry routes, has been used in guidebooks, trailhead signs and maps and is part of the trip planning component of the AVALUATOR™, a simple decision-support tool for backcountry users. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) offers a means to model and visualize terrain based criteria through the use of digital elevation model (DEM) and land cover data. Primary topographic variables such as slope, aspect and curvature are easily derived from a DEM and are compatible with the equivalent evaluation criteria in ATES. Other components of the ATES classification are difficult to extract from a DEM as they are not strictly terrain based. An overview is provided of the terrain variables that can be generated from DEM and land cover data; criteria from ATES which are not clearly terrain based are identified for further study or revision. The second component of this investigation was the development of an algorithm for inputting suitable ATES criteria into a GIS, thereby mimicking the process avalanche experts use when applying the ATES classification to snow avalanche terrain. GIS based classifications were compared to existing expert assessments for validity. The advantage of automating the ATES classification process through GIS is to assist avalanche experts with categorizing and mapping remote backcountry terrain.

  12. A mineralogical and granulometric study of Cayambe volcano debris avalanche deposit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detienne, M.; Delmelle, P.; Guevara, A.; Samaniego, P.; Bustillos, J.; Sonnet, P.; Opfergelt, S.

    2013-12-01

    Volcano flank/sector collapse represents one of the most catastrophic volcanic hazards. Various volcanic and non-volcanic processes are known to decrease the stability of a volcanic cone, eventually precipitating its gravitational failure. Among them, hydrothermal alteration of volcanic rocks leading to clay mineral formation is recognized as having a large negative impact on rock strength properties. Furthermore, the presence of hydrothermal clays in the collapsing mass influences the behavior of the associated volcanic debris avalanche. In particular, clay-containing debris avalanches seem to travel farther and spread more widely than avalanches of similar volume but which do not incorporate hydrothermally-altered materials. However, the relationship between hydrothermal alteration, flank collapse and debris avalanche behavior is not well understood. The objective of this study is to better determine the volume and composition of hydrothermal clay minerals in the poorly characterized debris avalanche deposit (DAD) of Cayambe composite volcano, located in a densely populated area ~70 km northeast of Quito, Ecuador. Cayambe DAD originated from a sector collapse, which occurred less than 200 ka ago. The DAD is 10-20 m thick and has an estimated total volume of ~0.85 Km3. The H/L ratio (where H is the vertical drop and L is the travel distance of the avalanche) for Cayambe DAD is ~0.095, suggesting a high mobility. In the medial-distal zone, at 9-20 km from its source, the DAD consists of an unstratified and unsorted matrix supporting millimetric to metric clasts. It has a matrix facies (i.e. rich in particles DAD behaved as a cohesive debris flow. Analysis of 13 matrix samples reveals a large variability in particle size distribution. This may reflect poor mixing of the collapsed material during transport. The clay fraction content in the matrix ranges from 15 to 30 wt.%, and does not show a relationship with the sample position in the DAD. Mineralogical

  13. Critical state transformation in hard superconductors resulting from thermomagnetic avalanches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chabanenko, V.V.; Kuchuk, E.I.; Rusakov, V.F.; Abaloszewa, I.; Nabialek, A.; Perez-Rodriguez, F.

    2016-01-01

    The results of experimental investigations of magnetic flux dynamics in finite superconductors, obtained using integral and local measurements methods, are presented. Local methods were aimed at clarifying the role of demagnetizing factor in dynamic formation of a complex magnetic structure of the critical state of hard superconductors. To understand the reasons for cardinal restructuring of the induction, we further analyzed the literature data of flux dynamics visualization during avalanches, obtained by magneto-optical methods. New features in the behavior of the magnetic flux during and after the avalanche were discovered. Two stages of the formation of the induction structures in the avalanche area were established, i.e. of homogeneous and heterogeneous filling with the magnetic flux. The mechanism of the inversion of the induction profile was considered. Oscillations in the speed of the front of the magnetic flux were revealed. Transformation of the critical state near the edge of the sample was analyzed. The role of thermal effects and of de-magnetizing factor in the dissipative flux dynamics was shown. Generalized information allowed, in the framework of the Bean concept, to present a model the transformation of the picture of the induction of the critical state and of the superconducting currents of a finite superconductor as a result of flux avalanches for two regimes - of screening and trapping of the magnetic flux.

  14. Avalanches in a Bose-Einstein condensate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuster, J.; Marte, A.; Amtage, S.; Sang, B.; Rempe, G.; Beijerinck, H.C.W.

    2001-01-01

    Collisional avalanches are identified to be responsible for an 8-fold increase of the initial loss rate of a large 87Rb condensate. We show that the collisional opacity of an ultracold gas exhibits a critical value. When exceeded, losses due to inelastic collisions are substantially enhanced. Under

  15. High performance waveguide-coupled Ge-on-Si linear mode avalanche photodiodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Nicholas J D; Derose, Christopher T; Brock, Reinhard W; Starbuck, Andrew L; Pomerene, Andrew T; Lentine, Anthony L; Trotter, Douglas C; Davids, Paul S

    2016-08-22

    We present experimental results for a selective epitaxially grown Ge-on-Si separate absorption and charge multiplication (SACM) integrated waveguide coupled avalanche photodiode (APD) compatible with our silicon photonics platform. Epitaxially grown Ge-on-Si waveguide-coupled linear mode avalanche photodiodes with varying lateral multiplication regions and different charge implant dimensions are fabricated and their illuminated device characteristics and high-speed performance is measured. We report a record gain-bandwidth product of 432 GHz for our highest performing waveguide-coupled avalanche photodiode operating at 1510nm. Bit error rate measurements show operation with BER-12, in the range from -18.3 dBm to -12 dBm received optical power into a 50 Ω load and open eye diagrams with 13 Gbps pseudo-random data at 1550 nm.

  16. Avalanche effect in the planar array of superheated superconductors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meagher, G.; Pond, J.; Kotlicki, A.; Turrell, B.G.; Eska, G.; Drukier, A.K.

    1996-01-01

    An avalanche effect has been observed in a cryogenic detector based on the planar array of superheated superconductors (PASS). The indium PASS, fabricated by photolithography on a mylar substrate, consisted of 40 well-separated lines each containing about 175 spheres of diameter 18 μm and separation 20 μm with those at the end being shielded by superconducting wire. The magnetic field was applied in the PASS plane parallel to the lines. Avalanche events in which several granules changed their state from superconducting to normal were triggered by the nucleation of the transition in a single grain by an alpha particle. (author)

  17. Avalanche size scaling in sheared three-dimensional amorphous solid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bailey, Nicholas; Schiøtz, Jakob; Lemaître, A.

    2007-01-01

    We study the statistics of plastic rearrangement events in a simulated amorphous solid at T=0. Events are characterized by the energy release and the "slip volume", the product of plastic strain and system volume. Their distributions for a given system size L appear to be exponential......, but a characteristic event size cannot be inferred, because the mean values of these quantities increase as L-alpha with alpha similar to 3/2. In contrast with results obtained in 2D models, we do not see simply connected avalanches. The exponent suggests a fractal shape of the avalanches, which is also evidenced...

  18. Fractal multiplication of electron avalanches and streamers: new mechanism of electrical breakdown?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ficker, T

    2007-01-01

    Long-lasting problems concerning peculiar statistical behaviour of high populated electron avalanches have been analysed. These avalanches are precursors of streamer breakdown in gases. The present streamer theory fails in explaining severe systematic deviations from the Furry statistics that is believed to be a governing statistical law. Such a deviated behaviour of high populated avalanches seems to be a consequence of a special pre-breakdown mechanism that is rather different from that known so far in discharge physics. This analysis tends towards formulating a modified theoretical concept supplementing the streamer theory by a new statistical view of pre-streamer states. The correctness of the concept is corroborated by a series of experiments

  19. Alpha- and gamma-detection by the avalanche detectors with metal-resistor-semiconductor structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vetokhin, S.S.; Evtushenko, V.P.; Zalesskij, V.B.; Malyshev, S.A.; Chudakov, V.A.; Shunevich, S.A.

    1992-01-01

    Possibility to use silicon avalanche photodetectors with metal-resistor-semiconductor structure with 0.12 cm 2 photosensitive area as detectors of α-particles, as well as, photodetector of γ-quanta scintillation detector is shown. When detection of α-particles the energy resolution reaches 10%. R energy resolution for avalanche photodetector-CsI(Tl) scintillator system cooled up to - 60 deg C at 59 keV ( 241 Am) and 662 keV ( 137 Cs) energy of γ-quanta constitutes 60% and 80%, respectively. R minimal value in the conducted experiments is determined by the degree of irregularity of avalanche amplification along the photodetector area

  20. Dengue prediction by the web: Tweets are a useful tool for estimating and forecasting Dengue at country and city level.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecilia de Almeida Marques-Toledo

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Infectious diseases are a leading threat to public health. Accurate and timely monitoring of disease risk and progress can reduce their impact. Mentioning a disease in social networks is correlated with physician visits by patients, and can be used to estimate disease activity. Dengue is the fastest growing mosquito-borne viral disease, with an estimated annual incidence of 390 million infections, of which 96 million manifest clinically. Dengue burden is likely to increase in the future owing to trends toward increased urbanization, scarce water supplies and, possibly, environmental change. The epidemiological dynamic of Dengue is complex and difficult to predict, partly due to costly and slow surveillance systems.In this study, we aimed to quantitatively assess the usefulness of data acquired by Twitter for the early detection and monitoring of Dengue epidemics, both at country and city level at a weekly basis. Here, we evaluated and demonstrated the potential of tweets modeling for Dengue estimation and forecast, in comparison with other available web-based data, Google Trends and Wikipedia access logs. Also, we studied the factors that might influence the goodness-of-fit of the model. We built a simple model based on tweets that was able to 'nowcast', i.e. estimate disease numbers in the same week, but also 'forecast' disease in future weeks. At the country level, tweets are strongly associated with Dengue cases, and can estimate present and future Dengue cases until 8 weeks in advance. At city level, tweets are also useful for estimating Dengue activity. Our model can be applied successfully to small and less developed cities, suggesting a robust construction, even though it may be influenced by the incidence of the disease, the activity of Twitter locally, and social factors, including human development index and internet access.Tweets association with Dengue cases is valuable to assist traditional Dengue surveillance at real-time and low

  1. Dengue prediction by the web: Tweets are a useful tool for estimating and forecasting Dengue at country and city level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marques-Toledo, Cecilia de Almeida; Degener, Carolin Marlen; Vinhal, Livia; Coelho, Giovanini; Meira, Wagner; Codeço, Claudia Torres; Teixeira, Mauro Martins

    2017-07-01

    Infectious diseases are a leading threat to public health. Accurate and timely monitoring of disease risk and progress can reduce their impact. Mentioning a disease in social networks is correlated with physician visits by patients, and can be used to estimate disease activity. Dengue is the fastest growing mosquito-borne viral disease, with an estimated annual incidence of 390 million infections, of which 96 million manifest clinically. Dengue burden is likely to increase in the future owing to trends toward increased urbanization, scarce water supplies and, possibly, environmental change. The epidemiological dynamic of Dengue is complex and difficult to predict, partly due to costly and slow surveillance systems. In this study, we aimed to quantitatively assess the usefulness of data acquired by Twitter for the early detection and monitoring of Dengue epidemics, both at country and city level at a weekly basis. Here, we evaluated and demonstrated the potential of tweets modeling for Dengue estimation and forecast, in comparison with other available web-based data, Google Trends and Wikipedia access logs. Also, we studied the factors that might influence the goodness-of-fit of the model. We built a simple model based on tweets that was able to 'nowcast', i.e. estimate disease numbers in the same week, but also 'forecast' disease in future weeks. At the country level, tweets are strongly associated with Dengue cases, and can estimate present and future Dengue cases until 8 weeks in advance. At city level, tweets are also useful for estimating Dengue activity. Our model can be applied successfully to small and less developed cities, suggesting a robust construction, even though it may be influenced by the incidence of the disease, the activity of Twitter locally, and social factors, including human development index and internet access. Tweets association with Dengue cases is valuable to assist traditional Dengue surveillance at real-time and low-cost. Tweets are

  2. Lowering effect of radioactive irradiation on breakdown voltage and electron avalanche pulse characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kawahashi, Akira; Nakano, Toru; Hosokawa, Tatsuzo; Miyoshi, Yosinori.

    1976-01-01

    In the time resolving measurement of the growing process and breakdown of electron avalanche in a gap of uniform electric field, the phenomenon that DC breakdown voltage slightly lowered was observed when β ray was irradiated as the initial electron source, as compared with unirradiated condition. Beta source used is 90 Sr- 90 Y of 2 mCi in radiative equilibrium. The experimental results and the examination are described in detail. In brief, the remarkable superposition of succeeding avalanche pulse over the preceeding avalanche pulse waveform was observed under the gap condition in which the breakdown voltage decreased in β-ray irradiation. Thus this superposition of avalanche pulses is considered as one of the causes of the breakdown voltage reduction. When β source is used as the initial electron source, the number of supplied initial electrons is very large as compared with unity, and at the same time, a great number of initial electrons can be supplied within the diffusion radius r of avalanche. Then the effect of initial electron number n 0 was considered by employing a diagram for breakdown scheme. The transition from Townsend type breakdown to streamer type breakdown occurs owing to increasing n 0 , and in that condition, the breakdown voltage lowers slightly. (Wakatsuki, Y)

  3. Volcanic avalanche fault zone with pseudotachylite and gouge in French Massif Central

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernard, Karine; van Wyk de Vries, Benjamin

    2017-11-01

    Structures and textures with sedimentological variations at different scales of the lithofacies assemblage help us to constrain the basal kinematic transition from non-depositional to depositional conditions during volcanic avalanche emplacement. In the well-exposed impact-sheared contact along volcanic avalanche fault zone in the French Massif Central, we observe how the granular textures of the pseudotachylite and fault gouge have recorded the propagation of shock wave with granular oscillatory stress. Sequential events of basal aggradation along avalanche fault zone have been established related to fractal D-values, temperature pressure regime and oscillatory stress during slow wave velocity. A typical lithofacies assemblage with a reverse grading shows the pseudotachylite and fault gouge. A cataclastic gradient is characterised by the fractal D-values from 2.7 in jigsaw breccias with pseudotachylite partial melt, to 2.6 in the polymodal gouge. Shock, brecciation and comminution produce cataclastic shear bands in the pseudotachylite and quartz microstructures along the basal contact of the volcanic debris-avalanche deposit. Gouge microstructures show granular segregation, cataclasis with antithetic rotational Riedel shear, and an arching effect between the Riedel shear bands. X-ray microtomography provided 3D microfabrics along the clastic vein in the sandy-gouge. From the available statistical dataset, a few equations have been developed implicating the same cataclastic origin with a co-genetic evolution of lithofacies. An impact wave during primary shear propagation may contribute to produce hydroclastic matrix, pseudotachylite partial melt and proximal gouge thixotropy with v 50m/s and a T < 654 °C. The interseismic period with oscillatory stress is related to crushed clasts and basaltic melt around 800 °C, Riedel shear bands with granular segregation along the fault gouge. The secondary shock by matrix-rich avalanche (ΔP = 10GPa, T ≥ 1000-1500

  4. Prediction of picosecond voltage collapse and electromagnetic wave generation in gas avalanche switches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayhall, D.J.; Yee, J.H.; Duong-Van, M.; Villa, F.

    1988-01-01

    A picosecond speed switch, the Gas Avalanche Switch (GAS), has been proposed for GeV linear accelerators. The medium is gas at high pressure (100 - 700 atm). An avalanche discharge is induced between pulse-charged high voltage electrodes by electron deposition from a fast laser pulse. Avalanche electrons move to the positive electrode, causing the applied voltage to collapse in picoseconds. A two-dimensional (2D) electromagnetic electron fluid computer code calculates the avalanche evolution and voltage collapse in air for an infinite parallel plate capacitor with a 0.1 mm spacing. Calculations are done for an accelerator switch geometry consisting of a 0.7 mm wide by 0.8 mm high, rectangular, high voltage center electrode (CE) between the grounded plates of a parallel plate line of 2 mm spacing. Several variations of CE elevation and initial electron deposition are investigated The 2D character of the outgoing TEM waves is shown

  5. A general improved methodology to forecasting future oil production: Application to the UK and Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiévet, L.; Forró, Z.; Cauwels, P.; Sornette, D.

    2015-01-01

    We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field discoveries. Compared with the standard methodology that tends to underestimate remaining oil reserves, our method gives a better description of future oil production, as validated by our back-tests starting in 2008. Specifically, we predict remaining reserves extractable until 2030 to be 5.7 ± 0.3 billion barrels for Norway and 3.0 ± 0.3 billion barrels for the UK, which are respectively 45% and 66% above the predictions using an extrapolation of aggregate production. - Highlights: • Two step methodology to forecast a countries oil production. • Nonlinear extrapolation of the performance of individual fields. • Stochastic model of the frequency of future discoveries. • Backtest starting in 2008 of the methodology. • Improvement upon standard extrapolation of aggregate production

  6. Population aging and migration - history and UN forecasts in the EU-28 and its east and south near neighborhood - one century perspective 1950-2050.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jakovljevic, Mihajlo Michael; Netz, Yael; Buttigieg, Sandra C; Adany, Roza; Laaser, Ulrich; Varjacic, Mirjana

    2018-03-16

    There is a gap in knowledge on long term pace of population aging acceleration and related net-migration rate changes in WHO European Region and its adjacent MENA countries. We decided to compare European Union (EU-28) region with the EU Near Neighborhood Policy Region East and EU Near Neighborhood Policy Region South in terms of these two essential features of third demographic transition. One century long perspective dating back to both historical data and towards reliable future forecasts was observed. United Nation's Department of Economic and Social Affairs estimates on indicators of population aging and migration were observed. Time horizon adopted was 1950-2050. Targeted 44 countries belong to either one of three regions named by EU diplomacy as: European Union or EU-28, EU Near Neighborhood Policy Region East (ENP East) and EU Near Neighborhood Policy Region South (ENP South). European Union region currently experiences most advanced stage of demographic aging. The latter one is the ENP East region dominated by Slavic nations whose fertility decline continues since the USSR Era back in late 1980s. ENP South region dominated by Arab League nations remains rather young compared to their northern counterparts. However, as the Third Demographic Transition is inevitably coming to these societies they remain the spring of youth and positive net emigration rate. Probably the most prominent change will be the extreme fall of total fertility rate (children per woman) in ENP South countries (dominantly Arab League) from 6.72 back in 1950 to medium-scenario forecasted 2.10 in 2050. In the same time net number of migrants in the EU28 (both sexes combined) will grow from - 91,000 in 1950 to + 394,000 in 2050. Long term migration from Eastern Europe westwards and from MENA region northwards is historically present for many decades dating back deep into the Cold War Era. Contemporary large-scale migrations outsourcing from Arab League nations towards rich European

  7. Low back pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchbinder, Rachelle; van Tulder, Maurits; Öberg, Birgitta

    2018-01-01

    Low back pain is the leading worldwide cause of years lost to disability and its burden is growing alongside the increasing and ageing population.1 Because these population shifts are more rapid in low-income and middle-income countries, where adequate resources to address the problem might...... not exist, the effects will probably be more extreme in these regions. Most low back pain is unrelated to specific identifiable spinal abnormalities, and our Viewpoint, the third paper in this Lancet Series,2,3 is a call for action on this global problem of low back pain....

  8. The GOCF/AWAP system - forecasting temperature extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fawcett, Robert; Hume, Timothy

    2010-01-01

    Gridded hourly temperature forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology's Gridded Operational Consensus Forecasting (GOCF) system are combined in real time with the Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) gridded daily temperature analyses to produce gridded daily maximum and minimum temperature forecasts with lead times from one to five days. These forecasts are compared against the historical record of AWAP daily temperature analyses (1911 to present), to identify regions where record or near-record temperatures are predicted to occur. This paper describes the GOCF/AWAP system, showing how the daily maximum and minimum temperature forecasts are prepared from the hourly forecasts, and how they are bias-corrected in real time using the AWAP analyses, against which they are subsequently verified. Using monthly climatologies of long-term daily mean, standard deviation and all-time highest and lowest on record, derived forecast products (for both maximum and minimum temperature) include ordinary and standardised anomalies, 'forecast - highest on record' and 'forecast - lowest on record'. Compensation for the climatological variation across the country is achieved in these last two products, which provide the necessary guidance as to whether or not record-breaking temperatures are expected, by expressing the forecast departure from the previous record in both 0 C and standard deviations.

  9. Spatially Extended Avalanches in a Hysteretic Capillary Condensation System: Superfluid 4He in Nuclepore

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lilly, M.P.; Wootters, A.H.; Hallock, R.B.

    1996-01-01

    Capacitive studies of hysteretic capillary condensation of superfluid 4 He in Nuclepore have shown that the initial draining of the pores occurs over a small range of the chemical potential with avalanches present as groups of pores drain. In the work reported here, the avalanches in this system are shown to be nonlocal events which involve pores distributed at low density across the entire sample. The nonlocal avalanche behavior is shown to be enabled by the presence of a superfluid film connection among the pores. copyright 1996 The American Physical Society

  10. Hole-Initiated-Avalanche, Linear-Mode, Single-Photon-Sensitive Avalanche Photodetector with Reduced Excess Noise and Low Dark Count Rate, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A radiation hard, single photon sensitive InGaAs avalanche photodiode (APD) receiver technology will be demonstrated useful for long range space based optical...

  11. On the relativistic large-angle electron collision operator for runaway avalanches in plasmas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Embréus, O.; Stahl, A.; Fülöp, T.

    2018-02-01

    Large-angle Coulomb collisions lead to an avalanching generation of runaway electrons in a plasma. We present the first fully conservative large-angle collision operator, derived from the relativistic Boltzmann operator. The relation to previous models for large-angle collisions is investigated, and their validity assessed. We present a form of the generalized collision operator which is suitable for implementation in a numerical kinetic equation solver, and demonstrate the effect on the runaway-electron growth rate. Finally we consider the reverse avalanche effect, where runaways are slowed down by large-angle collisions, and show that the choice of operator is important if the electric field is close to the avalanche threshold.

  12. Reducing financial avalanches by random investments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biondo, Alessio Emanuele; Pluchino, Alessandro; Rapisarda, Andrea; Helbing, Dirk

    2013-12-01

    Building on similarities between earthquakes and extreme financial events, we use a self-organized criticality-generating model to study herding and avalanche dynamics in financial markets. We consider a community of interacting investors, distributed in a small-world network, who bet on the bullish (increasing) or bearish (decreasing) behavior of the market which has been specified according to the S&P 500 historical time series. Remarkably, we find that the size of herding-related avalanches in the community can be strongly reduced by the presence of a relatively small percentage of traders, randomly distributed inside the network, who adopt a random investment strategy. Our findings suggest a promising strategy to limit the size of financial bubbles and crashes. We also obtain that the resulting wealth distribution of all traders corresponds to the well-known Pareto power law, while that of random traders is exponential. In other words, for technical traders, the risk of losses is much greater than the probability of gains compared to those of random traders.

  13. Avalanches in Mn12-Acetate: ``Magnetic Burning"

    Science.gov (United States)

    McHugh, Sean; Suzuki, Y.; Graybill, D.; Sarachik, M. P.; Avraham, N.; Myasoedov, Y.; Shtrikman, H.; Zeldov, E.; Bagai, R.; Chakov, N. E.; Christou, G.

    2006-03-01

    From local time-resolved measurements of fast reversal of the magnetization in single crystals of the molecular magnet Mn12-acetate, we have shown[1] that the magnetization avalanche spreads as a narrow interface that propagates through the crystal at a constant velocity roughly two orders of magnitude smaller than the speed of sound. This phenomenon is closely analogous to the propagation of a flame front (deflagration) through a flammable chemical substance. The propagation speed of the avalanche depends on the energy stored in each molecule, which can be controlled and tuned using an external magnetic field. We report studies of propagation speed with different external fields in Mn12-acetate. [1] Yoko Suzuki, M.P. Sarachik, E.M. Chudnovsky, S. McHugh, R. Gonzalez-Rubio, N. Avraham, Y. Myasoedov, H. Shtrikman, E. Zeldov, N.E. Chakov and G. Christou, Phys. Rev. Lett. 95, 147201 (2005).

  14. The development of structures in analogue and natural debris avalanches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paguican, Engielle Mae; van Wyk de Vries, Benjamin; Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo; Grosse, Pablo

    2010-05-01

    All types of rockslide-debris avalanches present a plethora of internal structures that are also well observed on the surface. Many of these are seen as faults and folds that can be used to determine deformation history and kinematics. We present two sets of simple and well-constrained experiments of reduced basal friction laboratory rockslides, equivalent to a highly deformed simple shear layer, with plug-flow. These follow the original ramp-slide work of Shea and van Wyk de Vries (Geosphere, 2008). The experiments used a curved ramp where materials accelerate until reaching a gently-sloped depositional surface and a constantly inclined ramp with a more regular slope and longer slides. A detailed description of deposit structures, their sequential formation and morphology is then used to investigate the transport type and deformation chronology from slide initiation to runout stopping of avalanches. Results using a curved ramp show accumulation and thickening at where the slope decreases. The thickened mass then further remobilises and advances by secondary collapse of the mass. Such a stop-start process may be important in many mountainous avalanches where there are rapid changes in slope. The constantly inclined ramp shows shearing and extensional structures at the levees and a set of compression and extension structures in the middle. We noted that frontal accumulation during flow occurs as materials at the front move slower relative to those in the medial and proximal zones. This also leads to secondary frontal collapse, and helps to maintain a thicker mass that can flow further. Descriptions and analyses of these structures are then applied to the kinematics and dynamics of natural examples. We study the 2006 Guinsaugon Rockslide event in the Philippines and find that frontal accumulation and secondary avalanching had also occurred and were important in determining the distribution and runout of the mass. Frontal bulking and collapse may also have occurred at

  15. Forecasting electricity consumption in Pakistan: the way forward

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hussain, Anwar; Rahman, Muhammad; Memon, Junaid Alam

    2016-01-01

    Growing shortfall of electricity in Pakistan affects almost all sectors of its economy. For proper policy formulation, it is imperative to have reliable forecasts of electricity consumption. This paper applies Holt-Winter and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models on time series secondary data from 1980 to 2011 to forecast total and component wise electricity consumption in Pakistan. Results reveal that Holt-Winter is the appropriate model for forecasting electricity consumption in Pakistan. It also suggests that electricity consumption would continue to increase throughout the projected period and widen the consumption-production gap in case of failure to respond the issue appropriately. It further reveals that demand would be highest in the household sector as compared to all other sectors and the increase in the energy generation would be less than the increase in total electricity consumption throughout the projected period. The study discuss various options to reduce the demand-supply gap and provide reliable electricity to different sectors of the economy. - Highlights: • We forecast total and component wise electricity consumption for Pakistan. • Electricity shortfall in Pakistan will increase in future if same situation exists. • Various options exist to cope with the electricity crisis in the country. • Holt-winter model gives best forecasts for electricity consumption in the country.

  16. Avalanche photodiodes for ISABELLE detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strand, R.C.

    1979-01-01

    At ISABELLE some requirements for detecting bursts of photons are not met by standard photomultiplier tubes. The characteristics of immunity to magnetic fields, small size (few mm), low power consumption (approx. 100 mW), insensitivity to optical overloads, and wide dynamic range (approx. 60 dB) are achieved with difficulty, if at all, with PMTs. These are characteristics of the solid state avalanche photodiode (APD), the preferred detector for light-wave communications. Successful field tests with APD detectors stimulated the design of standard optical-fiber communication systems to replace wire carriers by the early 1980's. In other characteristics, i.e., counting rate, pulse-height resolution, effective quantum efficiency, detection efficiency, and reliability, bare APDs are equivalent to standard PMTs. APDs with currently available amplifiers cannot resolve single photoelectrons but they could provide reasonable detection efficiencies and pulse-height resolution for packets of approx. > 100 photons. Commercially available APDs can cost up to 100 times as much as PMTs per active area, but they are potentially much cheaper. Six topics are discussed: (1) detectors for light-wave communication and detectors for particles, (2) avalanche photodiodes, (3) commercially available APDs, (4) dynamic response of PMTs and bare APDs, (5) photon counting with cold APDs, and (6) conclusions and recommendations

  17. Low power wide spectrum optical transmitter using avalanche mode LEDs in SOI CMOS technology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Agarwal, V.; Dutta, S; Annema, AJ; Hueting, RJE; Steeneken, P.G.; Nauta, B

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a low power monolithically integrated optical transmitter with avalanche mode light emitting diodes in a 140 nm silicon-on-insulator CMOS technology. Avalanche mode LEDs in silicon exhibit wide-spectrum electroluminescence (400 nm < λ < 850 nm), which has a significant

  18. Multiwire proportional chamber and multistage avalanche chamber with low concentration photoionization gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Pingde; Xu Zhiqing; Tang Xiaowei

    1986-01-01

    The characteristics of multiwire proportional chamber and multistage avalanche chamber filled with argon and photoionization gas (C 2 H 5 ) 3 N were measured. The spatial resolution curves and output pulse height spectra were measured as well. Low concentration (C 2 H 5 ) 3 N can play an effective part in quenching. At very low concentration, the phenomena of avalanche transverse expansion was observed obviously

  19. The Vaigat Rock Avalanche Laboratory, west-central Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunning, S.; Rosser, N. J.; Szczucinski, W.; Norman, E. C.; Benjamin, J.; Strzelecki, M.; Long, A. J.; Drewniak, M.

    2013-12-01

    Rock avalanches have unusually high mobility and pose both an immediate hazard, but also produce far-field impacts associated with dam breach, glacier collapse and where they run-out into water, tsunami. Such secondary hazards can often pose higher risks than the original landslide. The prediction of future threats posed by potential rock avalanches is heavily reliant upon understanding of the physics derived from an interpretation of deposits left by previous events, yet drawing comparisons between multiple events is normally challenging as interactions with complex mountainous terrain makes deposits from each event unique. As such numerical models and the interpretation of the underlying physics which govern landslide mobility is commonly case-specific and poorly suited to extrapolation beyond the single events the model is tuned to. Here we present a high-resolution LiDAR and hyperspectral dataset captured across a unique cluster of large rock avalanche source areas and deposits in the Vaigat straight, west central Greenland. Vaigat offers the unprecedented opportunity to model a sample of > 15 rock avalanches of various age sourced from an 80 km coastal escarpment. At Vaigat many of the key variables (topography, geology, post-glacial history) are held constant across all landslides providing the chance to investigate the variations in dynamics and emplacement style related to variable landslide volume, drop-heights, and thinning/spreading over relatively simple, unrestricted run-out zones both onto land and into water. Our data suggest that this region represents excellent preservation of landslide deposits, and hence is well suited to calibrate numerical models of run out dynamics. We use this data to aid the interpretation of deposit morphology, structure lithology and run-out characteristics in more complex settings. Uniquely, we are also able to calibrate our models using a far-field dataset of well-preserved tsunami run-up deposits, resulting from the 21

  20. A method to harness global crowd-sourced data to understand travel behavior in avalanche terrain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendrikx, J.; Johnson, J.

    2015-12-01

    To date, most studies of the human dimensions of decision making in avalanche terrain has focused on two areas - post-accident analysis using accident reports/interviews and, the development of tools as decision forcing aids. We present an alternate method using crowd-sourced citizen science, for understanding decision-making in avalanche terrain. Our project combines real-time GPS tracking via a smartphone application, with internet based surveys of winter backcountry users as a method to describe and quantify travel practices in concert with group decision-making dynamics, and demographic data of participants during excursions. Effectively, we use the recorded GPS track taken within the landscape as an expression of the decision making processes and terrain usage by the group. Preliminary data analysis shows that individual experience levels, gender, avalanche hazard, and group composition all influence the ways in which people travel in avalanche terrain. Our results provide the first analysis of coupled real-time GPS tracking of the crowd while moving in avalanche terrain combined with psychographic and demographic correlates. This research will lead to an improved understanding of real-time decision making in avalanche terrain. In this paper we will specifically focus on the presentation of the methods used to solicit, and then harness the crowd to obtain data in a unique and innovative application of citizen science where the movements within the terrain are the desired output data (Figure 1). Figure 1: Example GPS tracks sourced from backcountry winter users in the Teton Pass area (Wyoming), from the 2014-15 winter season, where tracks in red represent those recorded as self-assessed experts (as per our survey), and where tracks in blue represent those recorded as self-assessed intermediates. All tracks shown were obtained under similar avalanche conditions. Statistical analysis of terrain metrics showed that the experts used steeper terrain than the

  1. Developing energy forecasting model using hybrid artificial intelligence method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shahram Mollaiy-Berneti

    2015-01-01

    An important problem in demand planning for energy consumption is developing an accurate energy forecasting model. In fact, it is not possible to allocate the energy resources in an optimal manner without having accurate demand value. A new energy forecasting model was proposed based on the back-propagation (BP) type neural network and imperialist competitive algorithm. The proposed method offers the advantage of local search ability of BP technique and global search ability of imperialist competitive algorithm. Two types of empirical data regarding the energy demand (gross domestic product (GDP), population, import, export and energy demand) in Turkey from 1979 to 2005 and electricity demand (population, GDP, total revenue from exporting industrial products and electricity consumption) in Thailand from 1986 to 2010 were investigated to demonstrate the applicability and merits of the present method. The performance of the proposed model is found to be better than that of conventional back-propagation neural network with low mean absolute error.

  2. Gas sampling calorimeter studies in proportional, saturated avalanche, and streamer modes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atac, M.; Bedeschi, F.; Yoh, J.; Morse, R.; Procario, M.

    1982-01-01

    Recently, satisfactory new results were obtained at SLAC from gas sampling calorimeters running in the saturated avalanche mode within the energy range of 1.5 to 17.5 GeV. To study the higher energy behavior of this mode, more tests were carried out in the M4 beamline at Fermilab. This paper contains results obtained from the MAC prototype electromagnetic and hadronic calorimeters running in the proportional, saturated avalanche, and the streamer regions for energies between 12 and 150 GeV

  3. Athermal avalanche in bilayer superconducting nanowire single-photon detectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verma, V. B., E-mail: verma@nist.gov; Lita, A. E.; Stevens, M. J.; Mirin, R. P.; Nam, S. W. [National Institute of Standards and Technology, 325 Broadway, Boulder, Colorado 80305 (United States)

    2016-03-28

    We demonstrate that two superconducting nanowires separated by a thin insulating barrier can undergo an avalanche process. In this process, Joule heating caused by a photodetection event in one nanowire and the associated production of athermal phonons which are transmitted through the barrier cause the transition of the adjacent nanowire from the superconducting to the normal state. We show that this process can be utilized in the fabrication of superconducting nanowire single photon detectors to improve the signal-to-noise ratio, reduce system jitter, maximize device area, and increase the external efficiency over a very broad range of wavelengths. Furthermore, the avalanche mechanism may provide a path towards a superconducting logic element based on athermal gating.

  4. Short-term load forecasting by a neuro-fuzzy based approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruey-Hsun Liang; Ching-Chi Cheng [National Yunlin University of Science and Technology (China). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

    2002-02-01

    An approach based on an artificial neural network (ANN) combined with a fuzzy system is proposed for short-term load forecasting. This approach was developed in order to reach the desired short-term load forecasting in an efficient manner. Over the past few years, ANNs have attained the ability to manage a great deal of system complexity and are now being proposed as powerful computational tools. In order to select the appropriate load as the input for the desired forecasting, the Pearson analysis method is first applied to choose two historical record load patterns that are similar to the forecasted load pattern. These two load patterns and the required weather parameters are then fuzzified and input into a neural network for training or testing the network. The back-propagation (BP) neural network is applied to determine the preliminary forecasted load. In addition, the rule base for the fuzzy inference machine contains important linguistic membership function terms with knowledge in the form of fuzzy IF-THEN rules. This produces the load correction inference from the historical information and past forecasted load errors to obtain an inferred load error. Adding the inferred load error to the preliminary forecasted load, we can obtain the finial forecasted load. The effectiveness of the proposed approach to the short-term load-forecasting problem is demonstrated using practical data from the Taiwan Power Company (TPC). (Author)

  5. Oscillatory regime of avalanche particle detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukin, K.A.; Cerdeira, H.A.; Colavita, A.A.

    1995-06-01

    We describe the model of an avalanche high energy particle detector consisting of two pn-junctions, connected through an intrinsic semiconductor with a reverse biased voltage applied. We show that this detector is able to generate the oscillatory response on the single particle passage through the structure. The possibility of oscillations leading to chaotic behaviour is pointed out. (author). 15 refs, 7 figs

  6. Smartphone applications for communicating avalanche risk information - a review of existing practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charrière, M. K. M.; Bogaard, T. A.

    2015-11-01

    Every year, in all mountainous regions, people are victims of avalanches. One way to decrease those losses is believed to be informing about danger levels. The paper presents a study on current practices in the development of smartphones applications that are dedicated to avalanche risk communication. The analysis based on semi-structured interviews with developers of smartphone apps highlights the context of their development, how choices of content and visualization were made as well as how their effectiveness is evaluated. It appears that although the communicators agree on the message to disseminate, its representation triggers debate. Moreover, only simple evaluation processes are conducted but there is a clear awareness that further scientific efforts are needed to analyze the effectiveness of the smartphone apps. Finally, the current or planned possibility for non-experts users to report feedback on the snow and avalanches conditions open the doors to a transition of these apps from one-way communication tools to two-ways communication platforms. This paper also indicates the remaining challenges that avalanche risk communication is facing, although it is disputably the most advanced and standardized practice compared to other natural hazards. Therefore, this research is of interest for the entire field of natural hazards related risk communication.

  7. A New Hybrid Model Based on Data Preprocessing and an Intelligent Optimization Algorithm for Electrical Power System Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping Jiang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The establishment of electrical power system cannot only benefit the reasonable distribution and management in energy resources, but also satisfy the increasing demand for electricity. The electrical power system construction is often a pivotal part in the national and regional economic development plan. This paper constructs a hybrid model, known as the E-MFA-BP model, that can forecast indices in the electrical power system, including wind speed, electrical load, and electricity price. Firstly, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition can be applied to eliminate the noise of original time series data. After data preprocessing, the back propagation neural network model is applied to carry out the forecasting. Owing to the instability of its structure, the modified firefly algorithm is employed to optimize the weight and threshold values of back propagation to obtain a hybrid model with higher forecasting quality. Three experiments are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the model. Through comparison with other traditional well-known forecasting models, and models optimized by other optimization algorithms, the experimental results demonstrate that the hybrid model has the best forecasting performance.

  8. Forecast Mekong 2012: Building scientific capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanov, James E.

    2012-01-01

    In 2009, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton joined the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam in launching the Lower Mekong Initiative to enhance U.S. engagement with the countries of the Lower Mekong River Basin in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. The U.S. Geological Survey Forecast Mekong supports the Lower Mekong Initiative through a variety of activities. The principal objectives of Forecast Mekong include the following: * Build scientific capacity in the Lower Mekong Basin and promote cooperation and collaboration among scientists working in the region. * Provide data, information, and scientific models to help resource managers there make informed decisions. * Produce forecasting and visualization tools to support basin planning, including climate change adaptation. The focus of this product is Forecast Mekong accomplishments and current activities related to the development of scientific capacity at organizations and institutions in the region. Building on accomplishments in 2010 and 2011, Forecast Mekong continues to enhance scientific capacity in the Lower Mekong Basin with a suite of activities in 2012.

  9. Study of an avalanche-mode resistive plate chamber

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ying, J.; Ban, Y.; Liu, H.T.; Zhu, Z.M.; Zhu, Z.Y.; Chen, T.; Ma, J.G.; Ye, Y.L.

    2000-01-01

    Resistive plate chambers (RPCs) are widely used to detect high-energy charged particles, especially muons, due to the high gain, moderate time and spatial resolution, simple design and low cost of these detectors. While the simple streamer mode is adequate for cosmic-ray and low-rate accelerator experiments, the avalanche mode is required for high-rate experiments such as CMS at LHC. In this paper construction of a medium-sized double-gap RPC made of Chinese materials is reported. The experimental set-up of cosmic-ray and muon beam tests are introduced. The avalanche mode was clearly observed. Good efficiency and time resolution were obtained from the beam test at CERN under normal irradiation conditions. At very high radiation background the chamber efficiency decreases, indicating the necessity to change the resistivity value of the Chinese bakelites. (author)

  10. Parameters of an avalanche of runaway electrons in air under atmospheric pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oreshkin, E. V.

    2018-01-01

    The features of runaway-electron avalanches developing in air under atmospheric pressures are investigated in the framework of a three-dimensional numerical simulation. The simulation results indicate that an avalanche of this type can be characterized, besides the time and length of its exponential growth, by the propagation velocity and by the average kinetic energy of the runaway electrons. It is shown that these parameters obey the similarity laws applied to gas discharges.

  11. Geomorphological analysis, monitoring and modeling of large rock avalanches in northern Chile (Iquique area) for regional hazard assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yugsi Molina, F. X.; Hermanns, R. L.; Crosta, G. B.; Dehls, J.; Sosio, R.; Sepúlveda, S. A.

    2012-04-01

    mapped characterized by well defined lateral levees and clear internal morphological features (ridges and furrows, hummocks). Rock avalanche run out simulations have been carried out to back analyze the sites using DAN 3D and a 3 m pixel resolution digital elevation model (DEM) obtained from stereoscopic Geoeye-1 images to assess parameters that controlled propagation mechanism and impact area extent of the events. The older lobes were dated by radiocarbon methods. Results indicate ages higher than 40,000 yr BP for the northern site. The second site could only be dated relatively with an underlying terrace that resulted older than the age limit of radiocarbon dating (43.500 yr BP). All the deposits are positioned well above (40-70 m) the present sea level rise, and at the reported uplift rates for the area, they could be associated to events older than some hundreds of thousand years. A more complete record of the failure history of the sites will be obtained when results of cosmogenic nuclides (CN) and luminescence dating will become available later this year. Several other smaller rock avalanches have been mapped in the study area. Satellite-based radar interferometry (InSAR) was performed using ERS-1 and ERS-2 scenes from 1995-2000 as well as ENVISAT ASAR scenes from 2004-2010. Both datasets show only small deformation in the area. This deformation includes sliding of small surficial slope deposits and subsidence apparently due to local groundwater withdrawal. No deformation of bedrock along the escarpment edge is observed. Results show that only major rock avalanches could reach the main access roads to Iquique and currently no large slope segments show signs of large displacement rates. Moreover, there is no strong correlation between M > 8 earthquakes return periods and age of the dated deposits, which implies that large rock avalanches could have been triggered by other factors. Hence, from a hazard and risk perspective, it is unlikely that large rock avalanches

  12. Forecasting exchange rates; Kawase yosoku no riron to jissai

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kiuchi, T. [The Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan, Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

    1995-11-20

    This paper explains the theory and practice of foreign exchange rate fluctuation. It also explains various factors that constitute the reasons for the difficulty of forecasting the fluctuation in a short to medium period of time as a practical problem, even though forecasting it over a long period of time may be possible theoretically. Export, of which payment received in dollars cannot be used unless exchanged to yen, forms the yen buying demand. Increase in export and trade surplus turns into pressure for the yen appreciation after all. The amounts of exports and imports depend on such fundamentals as productivity and inflation in the country, as well as the cycle of strong business conditions and recession. Staggering of business conditions in Japan and the U.S. causes trade imbalance and fluctuation in foreign exchange rates. Attempts of grabbing the basic tone of the foreign exchange rates upon equalizing the business conditions in both countries is the purchasing power parity theory, which in fact can explain the long-term fluctuations in the past data. However, in the actual scenes where forecasting over a short to medium period is demanded, the forecasting actions are disturbed by such factors lying complexly as exports and imports of capitals, that is the capital circulation in long and short periods, foreign exchange tradings, and difference in interests inside and outside the country. 3 figs.

  13. Forecasting world natural gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Fattah, S. M.; Startzman, R. A.

    2000-01-01

    Using the multi-cyclic Hubert approach, a 53 country-specific gas supply model was developed which enables production forecasts for virtually all of the world's gas. Supply models for some organizations such as OPEC, non-OPEC and OECD were also developed and analyzed. Results of the modeling study indicate that the world's supply of natural gas will peak in 2014, followed by an annual decline at the rate of one per cent per year. North American gas production is reported to be currently at its peak with 29 Tcf/yr; Western Europe will reach its peak supply in 2002 with 12 Tcf. According to this forecast the main sources of natural gas supply in the future will be the countries of the former Soviet Union and the Middle East. Between them, they possess about 62 per cent of the world's ultimate recoverable natural gas (4,880 Tcf). It should be noted that these estimates do not include unconventional gas resulting from tight gas reservoirs, coalbed methane, gas shales and gas hydrates. These unconventional sources will undoubtedly play an important role in the gas supply in countries such as the United States and Canada. 18 refs., 2 tabs., 18 figs

  14. Universal Critical Dynamics in High Resolution Neuronal Avalanche Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Nir; Ito, Shinya; Brinkman, Braden A. W.; Shimono, Masanori; DeVille, R. E. Lee; Dahmen, Karin A.; Beggs, John M.; Butler, Thomas C.

    2012-05-01

    The tasks of neural computation are remarkably diverse. To function optimally, neuronal networks have been hypothesized to operate near a nonequilibrium critical point. However, experimental evidence for critical dynamics has been inconclusive. Here, we show that the dynamics of cultured cortical networks are critical. We analyze neuronal network data collected at the individual neuron level using the framework of nonequilibrium phase transitions. Among the most striking predictions confirmed is that the mean temporal profiles of avalanches of widely varying durations are quantitatively described by a single universal scaling function. We also show that the data have three additional features predicted by critical phenomena: approximate power law distributions of avalanche sizes and durations, samples in subcritical and supercritical phases, and scaling laws between anomalous exponents.

  15. A micropixel avalanche phototransistor for time of flight measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sadigov, A., E-mail: saazik@yandex.ru [National Nuclear Research Center, Baku (Azerbaijan); Institute of Radiation Problems, Baku (Azerbaijan); Suleymanov, S. [National Nuclear Research Center, Baku (Azerbaijan); Institute of Radiation Problems, Baku (Azerbaijan); Ahmadov, F. [National Nuclear Research Center, Baku (Azerbaijan); Ahmadov, G. [National Nuclear Research Center, Baku (Azerbaijan); Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Dubna (Russian Federation); Abdullayev, K. [National Aviation Academy, Baku (Azerbaijan); Akberov, R. [National Nuclear Research Center, Baku (Azerbaijan); Institute of Radiation Problems, Baku (Azerbaijan); Heydarov, N. [National Nuclear Research Center, Baku (Azerbaijan); Madatov, R. [Institute of Radiation Problems, Baku (Azerbaijan); Mukhtarov, R. [National Aviation Academy, Baku (Azerbaijan); Nazarov, M.; Valiyev, R. [National Nuclear Research Center, Baku (Azerbaijan)

    2017-02-11

    This paper presents results of studies of the silicon based new micropixel avalanche phototransistor (MAPT). MAPT is a modification of well-known silicon photomultipliers (SiPMs) and differs since each photosensitive pixel of the MAPT operates in Geiger mode and comprises an individual micro-transistor operating in binary mode. This provides a high amplitude single photoelectron signal with significantly shorter rise time. The obtained results are compared with appropriate parameters of known SiPMs. - Highlights: • A new photo detector – micropixel avalanche phototransistor was developed. • MAPT has a matrix of microtransistors with fast output. • In these modules the duration of the leading edge of the signal from the photodetectors are not worse than 50–100 ps.

  16. Worldwide satellite market demand forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowyer, J. M.; Frankfort, M.; Steinnagel, K. M.

    1981-01-01

    The forecast is for the years 1981 - 2000 with benchmark years at 1985, 1990 and 2000. Two typs of markets are considered for this study: Hardware (worldwide total) - satellites, earth stations and control facilities (includes replacements and spares); and non-hardware (addressable by U.S. industry) - planning, launch, turnkey systems and operations. These markets were examined for the INTELSAT System (international systems and domestic and regional systems using leased transponders) and domestic and regional systems. Forecasts were determined for six worldwide regions encompassing 185 countries using actual costs for existing equipment and engineering estimates of costs for advanced systems. Most likely (conservative growth rate estimates) and optimistic (mid range growth rate estimates) scenarios were employed for arriving at the forecasts which are presented in constant 1980 U.S. dollars. The worldwide satellite market demand forecast predicts that the market between 181 and 2000 will range from $35 to $50 billion. Approximately one-half of the world market, $16 to $20 billion, will be generated in the United States.

  17. In Brief: Forecasting meningitis threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    2008-12-01

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), in conjunction with a team of health and weather organizations, has launched a project to provide weather forecasts to medical officials in Africa to help reduce outbreaks of meningitis. The forecasts will enable local health care providers to target vaccination programs more effectively. In 2009, meteorologists with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is managed by UCAR, will begin issuing 14-day forecasts of atmospheric conditions in Ghana. Later, UCAR plans to work closely with health experts from several African countries to design and test a decision support system to provide health officials with useful meteorological information. ``By targeting forecasts in regions where meningitis is a threat, we may be able to help vulnerable populations. Ultimately, we hope to build on this project and provide information to public health programs battling weather-related diseases in other parts of the world,'' said Rajul Pandya, director of UCAR's Community Building Program. Funding for the project comes from a $900,000 grant from Google.org, the philanthropic arm of the Internet search company.

  18. Hybrid ellipsoidal fuzzy systems in forecasting regional electricity loads

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pai, Ping-Feng [Department of Information Management, National Chi Nan University, 1 University Road, Puli, Nantou 545, Taiwan (China)

    2006-09-15

    Because of the privatization of electricity in many countries, load forecasting has become one of the most crucial issues in the planning and operations of electric utilities. In addition, accurate regional load forecasting can provide the transmission and distribution operators with more information. The hybrid ellipsoidal fuzzy system was originally designed to solve control and pattern recognition problems. The main objective of this investigation is to develop a hybrid ellipsoidal fuzzy system for time series forecasting (HEFST) and apply the proposed model to forecast regional electricity loads in Taiwan. Additionally, a scaled conjugate gradient learning method is employed in the supervised learning phase of the HEFST model. Subsequently, numerical data taken from the existing literature is used to demonstrate the forecasting performance of the HEFST model. Simulation results reveal that the proposed model has better forecasting performance than the artificial neural network model and the regression model. Thus, the HEFST model is a valid and promising alternative for forecasting regional electricity loads. (author)

  19. Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Using the Enhanced Particle Swarm Optimization Based Hybrid Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Yeau Chang

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available High penetration of wind power in the electricity system provides many challenges to power system operators, mainly due to the unpredictability and variability of wind power generation. Although wind energy may not be dispatched, an accurate forecasting method of wind speed and power generation can help power system operators reduce the risk of an unreliable electricity supply. This paper proposes an enhanced particle swarm optimization (EPSO based hybrid forecasting method for short-term wind power forecasting. The hybrid forecasting method combines the persistence method, the back propagation neural network, and the radial basis function (RBF neural network. The EPSO algorithm is employed to optimize the weight coefficients in the hybrid forecasting method. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, the method is tested on the practical information of wind power generation of a wind energy conversion system (WECS installed on the Taichung coast of Taiwan. Comparisons of forecasting performance are made with the individual forecasting methods. Good agreements between the realistic values and forecasting values are obtained; the test results show the proposed forecasting method is accurate and reliable.

  20. The weather forecasting in Colombia: Science plus Art

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez Marentes, Humberto

    2006-01-01

    The presentation intends to show briefly and rapidly the progress weather forecasting science has undergone times until today. Undoubtedly, there has been an impressive technological advances, more data better models, better representations of the physics of the atmosphere; however for the case of the low latitude countries, there are still some problems to resolve concerning the local prediction that deserve more research and more data to be included in the models. As these limitations subsist, the subjective knowledge and the experience of the duty forecaster remain valuable. The presentation is also useful to summarize how IDEAM prepares short weather forecasts

  1. Optical fibers and avalanche photodiodes for scintillator counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borenstein, S.R.; Palmer, R.B.; Strand, R.C.

    1980-01-01

    Fine hodoscopes can be made of new scintillating optical fibers and one half inch end-on PMT's. An avalanche photodiode with small size and immunity to magnetic fields remains as a tempting new device to be proven as a photodetector for the fibers

  2. Ex-post evaluations of demand forecast accuracy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Driscoll, Patrick Arthur

    2014-01-01

    Travel demand forecasts play a crucial role in the preparation of decision support to policy makers in the field of transport planning. The results feed directly into impact appraisals such as cost benefit analyses and environmental impact assessments, which are mandatory for large public works...... projects in many countries. Over the last couple of decades there has been an increasing attention to the lack of demand forecast accuracy, but since data availability for comprehensive ex- post appraisals is problematic, such studies are still relatively rare. The present paper presents a review...... of the largest ex-post studies of demand forecast accuracy for transport infrastructure projects. The focus is twofold; to provide an overview of observed levels of demand forecast inaccuracy and to explore the primary explanations offered for the observed inaccuracy. Inaccuracy in the form of both bias...

  3. Status of mineral resources evaluation and forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Hanfeng; Li Ziying; Luo Yi; Li Shengxiang; Sun Wenpeng

    2007-01-01

    The work of resources evaluation and forecast is a focus to the governments of every country in the world, it is related to the establishment of strategic policy on the national mineral resources. In order to quantitatively evaluate the general potential of uranium resources in China and better forecast uranium deposits, this paper briefly introduces the method of evaluating total amount of mineral resources, especially 6 usual prospective methods which are recommended in international geology comparison programs, as well as principle of usual mineral resources quantitative prediction and its steps. The work history of mineral resources evaluation and forecast is reviewed concisely. Advantages and disadvantages of each method, their application field and condition are also explained briefly. At last, the history of uranium resources evaluation and forecast in China and its status are concisely outlined. (authors)

  4. Characterization of midwave infrared InSb avalanche photodiode

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abautret, J., E-mail: johan.abautret@ies.univ-montp2.fr; Evirgen, A. [Université Montpellier, IES, UMR 5214, F-34095 Montpellier (France); CNRS, IES, UMR 5214, F-34095 Montpellier (France); SOFRADIR, BP 21, 38113 Veurey-Voroize (France); Perez, J. P.; Christol, P. [Université Montpellier, IES, UMR 5214, F-34095 Montpellier (France); CNRS, IES, UMR 5214, F-34095 Montpellier (France); Rothman, J. [CEA-LETI, 17 rue des Martyrs, 38054 Grenoble Cedex 9 (France); Cordat, A. [SOFRADIR, BP 21, 38113 Veurey-Voroize (France)

    2015-06-28

    This paper focuses on the InSb material potential for the elaboration of Avalanche Photodiodes (APD) for high performance infrared imaging applications, both in passive or active mode. The first InSb electron-APD structure was grown by molecular beam epitaxy, processed and electrically characterized. The device performances are at the state of the art for the InSb epi-diode technology, with a dark current density J(−50 mV) = 32 nA/cm{sup 2} at 77 K. Then, a pure electron injection was performed, and an avalanche gain, increasing exponentially, was observed with a gain value near 3 at −4 V at 77 K. The Okuto–Crowell model was used to determine the electron ionization coefficient α(E) in InSb, and the InSb gain behavior is compared with the one of InAs and MCT APDs.

  5. Positron camera with high-density avalanche chambers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manfrass, D.; Enghardt, W.; Fromm, W.D.; Wohlfarth, D.; Hennig, K.

    1988-01-01

    The results of an extensive investigation of the properties of high-density avalanche chambers (HIDAC) are presented. This study has been performed in order to optimize the layout of HIDAC detectors, since they are intended to be applied as position sensitive detectors for annihilation radiation in a positron emission tomograph being under construction. (author)

  6. Developing an Experimental Simulation Method for Rock Avalanches: Fragmentation Behavior of Brittle Analogue Material

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thordén Haug, Øystein; Rosenau, Matthias; Leever, Karen; Oncken, Onno

    2013-04-01

    Gravitational mass movement on earth and other planets show a scale dependent behavior, of which the physics is not fully understood. In particular, the runout distance for small to medium sized landslides (volume dynamics control small and large landslides/rock avalanches. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain this scale dependent behavior, but no consensus has been reached. Experimental simulations of rock avalanches usually involve transport of loose granular material down a chute. Though such granular avalanche models provide important insights into avalanche dynamics, they imply that the material fully disintegrate instantaneously. Observations from nature, however, suggests that a transition from solid to "liquid" occurs over some finite distance downhill, critically controlling the mobility and energy budget of the avalanche. Few experimental studies simulated more realistically the material failing during sliding and those were realized in a labscale centrifuge, where the range of volumes/scales is limited. To develop a new modeling technique to study the scale dependent runout behavior of rock avalanches, we designed, tested and verified several brittle materials allowing fragmentation to occur under normal gravity conditions. According to the model similarity theory, the analogue material must behave dynamically similar to the rocks in natural rock avalanches. Ideally, the material should therefore deform in a brittle manner with limited elastic and ductile strains up to a certain critical stress, beyond which the material breaks and deforms irreversibly. According to scaling relations derived from dimensional analysis and for a model-to-prototype length ratio of 1/1000, the appropriate yield strength for an analogue material is in the order of 10 kPa, friction coefficient around 0.8 and stiffness in the order of MPa. We used different sand (garnet, quartz) in combination with different matrix materials (sugar, salt, starch, plaster) to cement

  7. Swedish skiers knowledge, experience and attitudes towards off-piste skiing and avalanches

    OpenAIRE

    Mårtensson, Stefan; Wikberg, Per-Olov; Palmgren, Petter

    2013-01-01

    The winter of 2012/2013 was the most accident-prone season in the Swedish avalanche history with a total of seven dead Swedes. In April 2013 the Swedish Mountain Safety Council initiated a web-based survey aimed towards Swedish skiers. The aim was to identify the target group's knowledge, experience and attitudes towards off-piste skiing and avalanches. Respondents were asked to answer a total of 28 questions. 1047 Swedish off-piste skiers answered, and we analysed them in more detail. The Sw...

  8. Analysis of the snow-atmosphere energy balance during wet-snow instabilities and implications for avalanche prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Mitterer

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Wet-snow avalanches are notoriously difficult to predict; their formation mechanism is poorly understood since in situ measurements representing the thermal and mechanical evolution are difficult to perform. Instead, air temperature is commonly used as a predictor variable for days with high wet-snow avalanche danger – often with limited success. As melt water is a major driver of wet-snow instability and snow melt depends on the energy input into the snow cover, we computed the energy balance for predicting periods with high wet-snow avalanche activity. The energy balance was partly measured and partly modelled for virtual slopes at different elevations for the aspects south and north using the 1-D snow cover model SNOWPACK. We used measured meteorological variables and computed energy balance and its components to compare wet-snow avalanche days to non-avalanche days for four consecutive winter seasons in the surroundings of Davos, Switzerland. Air temperature, the net shortwave radiation and the energy input integrated over 3 or 5 days showed best results in discriminating event from non-event days. Multivariate statistics, however, revealed that for better predicting avalanche days, information on the cold content of the snowpack is necessary. Wet-snow avalanche activity was closely related to periods when large parts of the snowpack reached an isothermal state (0 °C and energy input exceeded a maximum value of 200 kJ m−2 in one day, or the 3-day sum of positive energy input was larger than 1.2 MJ m−2. Prediction accuracy with measured meteorological variables was as good as with computed energy balance parameters, but simulated energy balance variables accounted better for different aspects, slopes and elevations than meteorological data.

  9. Neuronal avalanches and learning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arcangelis, Lucilla de, E-mail: dearcangelis@na.infn.it [Department of Information Engineering and CNISM, Second University of Naples, 81031 Aversa (Italy)

    2011-05-01

    Networks of living neurons represent one of the most fascinating systems of biology. If the physical and chemical mechanisms at the basis of the functioning of a single neuron are quite well understood, the collective behaviour of a system of many neurons is an extremely intriguing subject. Crucial ingredient of this complex behaviour is the plasticity property of the network, namely the capacity to adapt and evolve depending on the level of activity. This plastic ability is believed, nowadays, to be at the basis of learning and memory in real brains. Spontaneous neuronal activity has recently shown features in common to other complex systems. Experimental data have, in fact, shown that electrical information propagates in a cortex slice via an avalanche mode. These avalanches are characterized by a power law distribution for the size and duration, features found in other problems in the context of the physics of complex systems and successful models have been developed to describe their behaviour. In this contribution we discuss a statistical mechanical model for the complex activity in a neuronal network. The model implements the main physiological properties of living neurons and is able to reproduce recent experimental results. Then, we discuss the learning abilities of this neuronal network. Learning occurs via plastic adaptation of synaptic strengths by a non-uniform negative feedback mechanism. The system is able to learn all the tested rules, in particular the exclusive OR (XOR) and a random rule with three inputs. The learning dynamics exhibits universal features as function of the strength of plastic adaptation. Any rule could be learned provided that the plastic adaptation is sufficiently slow.

  10. Neuronal avalanches and learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arcangelis, Lucilla de

    2011-01-01

    Networks of living neurons represent one of the most fascinating systems of biology. If the physical and chemical mechanisms at the basis of the functioning of a single neuron are quite well understood, the collective behaviour of a system of many neurons is an extremely intriguing subject. Crucial ingredient of this complex behaviour is the plasticity property of the network, namely the capacity to adapt and evolve depending on the level of activity. This plastic ability is believed, nowadays, to be at the basis of learning and memory in real brains. Spontaneous neuronal activity has recently shown features in common to other complex systems. Experimental data have, in fact, shown that electrical information propagates in a cortex slice via an avalanche mode. These avalanches are characterized by a power law distribution for the size and duration, features found in other problems in the context of the physics of complex systems and successful models have been developed to describe their behaviour. In this contribution we discuss a statistical mechanical model for the complex activity in a neuronal network. The model implements the main physiological properties of living neurons and is able to reproduce recent experimental results. Then, we discuss the learning abilities of this neuronal network. Learning occurs via plastic adaptation of synaptic strengths by a non-uniform negative feedback mechanism. The system is able to learn all the tested rules, in particular the exclusive OR (XOR) and a random rule with three inputs. The learning dynamics exhibits universal features as function of the strength of plastic adaptation. Any rule could be learned provided that the plastic adaptation is sufficiently slow.

  11. Novel methodology for pharmaceutical expenditure forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, Åsa; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    The value appreciation of new drugs across countries today features a disruption that is making the historical data that are used for forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure poorly reliable. Forecasting methods rarely addressed uncertainty. The objective of this project was to propose a methodology to perform pharmaceutical expenditure forecasting that integrates expected policy changes and uncertainty (developed for the European Commission as the 'EU Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast'; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). 1) Identification of all pharmaceuticals going off-patent and new branded medicinal products over a 5-year forecasting period in seven European Union (EU) Member States. 2) Development of a model to estimate direct and indirect impacts (based on health policies and clinical experts) on savings of generics and biosimilars. Inputs were originator sales value, patent expiry date, time to launch after marketing authorization, price discount, penetration rate, time to peak sales, and impact on brand price. 3) Development of a model for new drugs, which estimated sales progression in a competitive environment. Clinical expected benefits as well as commercial potential were assessed for each product by clinical experts. Inputs were development phase, marketing authorization dates, orphan condition, market size, and competitors. 4) Separate analysis of the budget impact of products going off-patent and new drugs according to several perspectives, distribution chains, and outcomes. 5) Addressing uncertainty surrounding estimations via deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. This methodology has proven to be effective by 1) identifying the main parameters impacting the variations in pharmaceutical expenditure forecasting across countries: generics discounts and penetration, brand price after patent loss, reimbursement rate, the penetration of biosimilars and discount price, distribution chains, and the time

  12. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  13. Recalculation of an artificially released avalanche with SAMOS and validation with measurements from a pulsed Doppler radar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Sailer

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available A joint experiment was carried out on 10 February 1999 by the Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research (SFISAR and the Austrian Institute for Avalanche and Torrent Research (AIATR, of the Federal Office and Re-search Centre for Forests, BFW to measure forces and velocities at the full scale experimental site CRÊTA BESSE in VALLÉE DE LA SIONNE, Canton du Valais, Switzerland. A huge avalanche could be released artificially, which permitted extensive investigations (dynamic measurements, im-provement of measurement systems, simulation model verification, design of protective measures, etc.. The results of the velocity measurements from the dual frequency pulsed Doppler avalanche radar of the AIATR and the recalculation with the numerical simulation model SAMOS are explained in this paper.

  14. Plasma simulation of electron avalanche in a linear thyratron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kushner, M.J.

    1985-01-01

    Thyratrons typically operate at sufficiently small PD (pressure x electrode separation) that holdoff is obtained by operating on the near side of the Paschen curve, and by shielding the slot in the control grid so there is no straight line path for electrons to reach the anode from the cathode. Electron avalanche is initiated by pulsing the control grid to a high voltage. Upon collapse of voltage in the cathode-control grid space, the discharge is sustained by penetration of potential through the control grid slot into the cathode-control grid region. To better understand the electron avalanche process in multi-grid and slotted structures such as thyratrons, a plasma simulation code has been constructed. This effort is in support of a companion program in which a linear thyratron is being electrically and spectroscopically characterized

  15. Higher utilization of the pharmacologic and non-pharmacologic therapies in patients with chronic low back pain in a developing country than in the USA: Treatment of chronic low back pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jovičić Jelena

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Pain is a highly subjective experience and different studies have shown that the perception of the pain intensity depends on multiple factors, such as: gender, race, age, eye or hair color, socio-economic status, education, as well as psychological status of the person, etc. Despite those determinants there is an discrepancy in pain treating approach between the USA and the European countries. Low back pain has become a major socio-economic problem in the USA, with 70-85% of people in the North America being affected throughout their lifes compared with the average prevalence of back pain In Western Europe as 15%. Overall, NSAIDs are the most commonly prescribed medication for low back pain worldwide, however with liberalization of the law in the USA within past 20 years, and with the promotion of opioids as highly effective and safe treatment, they are getting prescribed widely and readily for different chronic pain conditions including chronic low back pain. Low back pain has become a major socio-economic problem in the USA, and Western Europe. The purpose of this prospective study was to determine the utilization of pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatments for chronic low back pain in developing countries. Methods: After approval of the ethics committee Medical School University of Belgrade we enrolled 185 patients. Any patients who were > 18 years, diagnosed with chronic low back pain and did not have a history of malignancy are included in the study. All of them completed the study. Results: Patients were between 21 and 91 years old (average age 61.2 ± 14.7, 43.5% of them were males and 56.5% females. The pain duration for these patients ranged from 2 months up to 20 years. Average VAS pain scores in rest 4.7 ± 2.3 and in movement 5.2 ± 2.1. All of these patients exploited different types of non-pharmacological treatments for their painful condition. The average improvements after these treatments were: physical

  16. Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand forecast by fuzzy logic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kucukali, Serhat; Baris, Kemal

    2010-01-01

    This paper aims to forecast Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand by applying fuzzy logic methodology while general information on economical, political and electricity market conditions of the country is also given. Unlike most of the other forecast models about Turkey's electricity demand, which usually uses more than one parameter, gross domestic product (GDP) based on purchasing power parity was the only parameter used in the model. Proposed model made good predictions and captured the system dynamic behavior covering the years of 1970-2014. The model yielded average absolute relative errors of 3.9%. Furthermore, the model estimates a 4.5% decrease in electricity demand of Turkey in 2009 and the electricity demand growth rates are projected to be about 4% between 2010 and 2014. It is concluded that forecasting the Turkey's short-term gross electricity demand with the country's economic performance will provide more reliable projections. Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of a country could be made by any designer with the help of the fuzzy logic procedure described in this paper. The advantage of this model lies on the ability to mimic the human thinking and reasoning.

  17. Global change. Taking stock of a catastrophe. The use of satellite data for environmental protection and in developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-10-01

    The individual contributions deal primarily with the development of the climate; they want to render environmental processes transparent. Satellite data play an important part in forecasts of climate development: only satellites permit to realize the global dimension of climate. The numerous illustrations in the form of satellite images are to aid thinking in global dimensions. The use of environment satellites is a step beyond climate research. Further contributions discuss the uses of environment satellites during nature disasters, for the detection of environmental polluters and for the analysis of forest die-back in industrialized countries or rainforest clearfelling in the Amazon region. (KW) [de

  18. Single-Photon-Sensitive HgCdTe Avalanche Photodiode Detector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntington, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this program was to develop single-photon-sensitive short-wavelength infrared (SWIR) and mid-wavelength infrared (MWIR) avalanche photodiode (APD) receivers based on linear-mode HgCdTe APDs, for application by NASA in light detection and ranging (lidar) sensors. Linear-mode photon-counting APDs are desired for lidar because they have a shorter pixel dead time than Geiger APDs, and can detect sequential pulse returns from multiple objects that are closely spaced in range. Linear-mode APDs can also measure photon number, which Geiger APDs cannot, adding an extra dimension to lidar scene data for multi-photon returns. High-gain APDs with low multiplication noise are required for efficient linear-mode detection of single photons because of APD gain statistics -- a low-excess-noise APD will generate detectible current pulses from single photon input at a much higher rate of occurrence than will a noisy APD operated at the same average gain. MWIR and LWIR electron-avalanche HgCdTe APDs have been shown to operate in linear mode at high average avalanche gain (M > 1000) without excess multiplication noise (F = 1), and are therefore very good candidates for linear-mode photon counting. However, detectors fashioned from these narrow-bandgap alloys require aggressive cooling to control thermal dark current. Wider-bandgap SWIR HgCdTe APDs were investigated in this program as a strategy to reduce detector cooling requirements.

  19. The accountability imperative for quantifying the uncertainty of emission forecasts: evidence from Mexico

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Puig, Daniel; Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo; Bakhtiari, Fatemeh

    2017-01-01

    forecasting approaches can reflect prevailing uncertainties. We apply a transparent and replicable method to quantify the uncertainty associated with projections of gross domestic product growth rates for Mexico, a key driver of GHG emissions in the country. We use those projections to produce probabilistic...... forecasts of GHG emissions for Mexico. We contrast our probabilistic forecasts with Mexico’s governmental deterministic forecasts. We show that, because they fail to reflect such key uncertainty, deterministic forecasts are ill-suited for use in target-setting processes. We argue that (i) guidelines should...... be agreed upon, to ensure that governmental forecasts meet certain minimum transparency and quality standards, and (ii) governments should be held accountable for the appropriateness of the forecasting approach applied to prepare governmental forecasts, especially when those forecasts are used to derive...

  20. Stability of the discretization of the electron avalanche phenomenon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Villa, Andrea, E-mail: andrea.villa@rse-web.it [Ricerca Sul Sistema Energetico (RSE), Via Rubattino 50, 20134, Milano (Italy); Barbieri, Luca, E-mail: luca.barbieri@rse-web.it [Ricerca Sul Sistema Energetico (RSE), Via Rubattino 50, 20134, Milano (Italy); Gondola, Marco, E-mail: marco.gondola@rse-web.it [Ricerca Sul Sistema Energetico (RSE), Via Rubattino 50, 20134, Milano (Italy); Leon-Garzon, Andres R., E-mail: andresricardo.leon@polimi.it [CMIC Department “Giulio Natta”, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133, Milano (Italy); Malgesini, Roberto, E-mail: roberto.malgesini@rse-web.it [Ricerca Sul Sistema Energetico (RSE), Via Rubattino 50, 20134, Milano (Italy)

    2015-09-01

    The numerical simulation of the discharge inception is an active field of applied physics with many industrial applications. In this work we focus on the drift-reaction equation that describes the electron avalanche. This phenomenon is one of the basic building blocks of the streamer model. The main difficulty of the electron avalanche equation lies in the fact that the reaction term is positive when a high electric field is applied. It leads to exponentially growing solutions and this has a major impact on the behavior of numerical schemes. We analyze the stability of a reference finite volume scheme applied to this latter problem. The stability of the method may impose a strict mesh spacing, therefore a proper stabilized scheme, which is stable whatever spacing is used, has been developed. The convergence of the scheme is treated as well as some numerical experiments.

  1. Network dynamics in nociceptive pathways assessed by the neuronal avalanche model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu José

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Traditional electroencephalography provides a critical assessment of pain responses. The perception of pain, however, may involve a series of signal transmission pathways in higher cortical function. Recent studies have shown that a mathematical method, the neuronal avalanche model, may be applied to evaluate higher-order network dynamics. The neuronal avalanche is a cascade of neuronal activity, the size distribution of which can be approximated by a power law relationship manifested by the slope of a straight line (i.e., the α value. We investigated whether the neuronal avalanche could be a useful index for nociceptive assessment. Findings Neuronal activity was recorded with a 4 × 8 multichannel electrode array in the primary somatosensory cortex (S1 and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC. Under light anesthesia, peripheral pinch stimulation increased the slope of the α value in both the ACC and S1, whereas brush stimulation increased the α value only in the S1. The increase in α values was blocked in both regions under deep anesthesia. The increase in α values in the ACC induced by peripheral pinch stimulation was blocked by medial thalamic lesion, but the increase in α values in the S1 induced by brush and pinch stimulation was not affected. Conclusions The neuronal avalanche model shows a critical state in the cortical network for noxious-related signal processing. The α value may provide an index of brain network activity that distinguishes the responses to somatic stimuli from the control state. These network dynamics may be valuable for the evaluation of acute nociceptive processes and may be applied to chronic pathological pain conditions.

  2. Low Gain Avalanche Detectors (LGAD) for particle physics and synchrotron applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moffat, N.; Bates, R.; Bullough, M.; Flores, L.; Maneuski, D.; Simon, L.; Tartoni, N.; Doherty, F.; Ashby, J.

    2018-03-01

    A new avalanche silicon detector concept is introduced with a low gain in the region of ten, known as a Low Gain Avalanche Detector, LGAD. The detector's characteristics are simulated via a full process simulation to obtain the required doping profiles which demonstrate the desired operational characteristics of high breakdown voltage (500 V) and a gain of 10 at 200 V reverse bias for X-ray detection. The first low gain avalanche detectors fabricated by Micron Semiconductor Ltd are presented. The doping profiles of the multiplication junctions were measured with SIMS and reproduced by simulating the full fabrication process which enabled further development of the manufacturing process. The detectors are 300 μm thick p-type silicon with a resistivity of 8.5 kΩcm, which fully depletes at 116 V. The current characteristics are presented and demonstrate breakdown voltages in excess of 500 V and a current density of 40 to 100 nAcm‑2 before breakdown measured at 20oC. The gain of the LGAD has been measured with a red laser (660 nm) and shown to be between 9 and 12 for an external bias voltage range from 150 V to 300 V.

  3. Assessing the value of real-time snow and avalanche information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeidler, Antonia; Adams, Marc; Schuster, Martin; Berner, Martin; Nagy, Wilhelm

    2017-04-01

    This poster presentation shows first results from a pilot study on exploring the possibilities of using existing and new information and communication technologies (ICT) for snow and avalanche assessments. Today, ICT solutions allow the utilisation of information at a high spatiotemporal resolution, due to the widespread availability of internet access, high computing power and affordable mobile devices. Therefore, there is an increasing request for up to date information on snow and avalanche decision-making. However, there are challenges that need to be addressed from different view points. These include topics in the field of technological feasibility of providing a stable network, exchanging trustworthy information and motivation of experts to participate. This contribution discusses the lessons-learnt, from the establishment of a platform to the user-experience.

  4. Investigation of the performance of alpha particle counting and alpha-gamma discrimination by pulse shape with micro-pixel avalanche photodiode

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmadov, G.; Madatov, R.; Sadigov, A.; Sadygov, Z.; Jafarova, E.; Ahmadov, G.; Sadygov, Z.; Olshevski, A.; Zerrouk, F.; Mukhtarov, R.

    2015-01-01

    Being capable measuring small lights gives possibility to use micro-pixel avalanche photodiodes with scintillators. It is shown two prototypes to use micro-pixel avalanche photodiodes with and without scintillators as alpha and gamma counters in this paper. First prototype is to use two micro-pixel avalanche photodiodes. One for detecting alpha particles and closer to it, the second one with a thin plastic scintillator for detecting gamma rays. Second prototype is called two-layers configuration in which it is used only one micro-pixel avalanche photodiode, but two scntillators with different decay times. One can distinquish alpha particle and gamma ray events by using pulse shape discrimination techniques in the two-layer configuration. In this work an alpha particle and gamma ray counting performance of micro-pixel avalanche photodiodes without scintillators and its combination of plastic and BGO+ plastic scintillators was investigated. Obtained results showed the detection performance of the micro-pixel avalanche photodiodes in combination with plastic scintillator was about the same as conventional semiconductor detectors

  5. Avalanches of Singing Sand in the Laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagois-Bohy, Simon; Courrech Du Pont, Sylvain; Douady, Stéphane

    2011-03-01

    The song of dunes is a natural phenomenon that has arisen travellers' curiosity for a long time, from Marco Polo to R.A. Bagnold. Scientific observations in the XXth century have shown that the sound is emitted during a shear flow of these particular grains, the free surface of the flow having coherent vibrations like a loud speaker. The sound emission is also submitted to a threshold effect with many parameters like humidity, flow speed, surface of the grains. The sound has been reproduced in laboratory avalanche experiments close to the natural phenomenon on field, but set in a channel with a hard bottom and a few centimeters of sand flowing, which contradicts explanations of the sound that involve a sand dune under the avalanche flow. Flow rates measurements also show the presence of a plug region in the flow above the sheared band, with the same characteristic length as the coherence zones of the sound. Finally we show experimentally that the Froude number, once modified to take into account the height of this plug band, is the parameter that sets the amplitude of the sound, and produces a threshold that depends on the grain type.

  6. Townsend coefficients of gases in avalanche counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brunner, G.

    1978-01-01

    Though much work has been done by many authors in the last few years in the development and application of avalanche counters for ion radiation, it is based upon values of the Townsend coefficients as the essential gas parameter, which were determined many years ago for much lower reduced field strengths F/p than prevail in such counters. Therefore absolute determinations of α in vapours of methyl alcohol, cyclohexane, acetone, and n-heptene were performed under original conditions of avalanche counters. The values obtained do not differ by more than 30%-50% from the former values indeed, extrapolated over F/p for the first three mentioned substances, but the amounts of A and B in the usual representation α/p=A exp(-B(F/p)) are much greater for the stronger reduced fields. This is of importance for such counter properties as the dependence of pulse heights on pressure, voltage, electrode distance etc., which are governed by other combinations of A and B than α/p itself. A comparison of results for different ionic radiations shows a marked influence of the primary ionization density along the particle tracks which is hard to explain. (Auth.)

  7. X-ray imaging with amorphous selenium: Pulse height measurements of avalanche gain fluctuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lui, Brian J. M.; Hunt, D. C.; Reznik, A.; Tanioka, K.; Rowlands, J. A.

    2006-01-01

    Avalanche multiplication in amorphous selenium (a-Se) can provide a large, adjustable gain for active matrix flat panel imagers (AMFPI), enabling quantum noise limited x-ray imaging during both radiography and fluoroscopy. In the case of direct conversion AMFPI, the multiplication factor for each x ray is a function of its depth of interaction, and the resulting variations in gain can reduce the detective quantum efficiency (DQE) of the system. An experimental method was developed to measure gain fluctuations by analyzing images of individual x rays that were obtained using a video camera with an a-Se target operated in avalanche mode. Pulse height spectra (PHS) of the charge produced per x ray were recorded for monoenergetic 30.9, 49.4, and 73.8 keV x-ray sources. The rapid initial decay and long tail of each PHS can be explained by a model in which positive charge dominates the initiation of avalanche. The Swank information factor quantifies the effect of gain fluctuation on DQE and was calculated from the PHS. The information factor was found to be 0.5 for a 25 μm a-Se layer with a maximum gain of ∼300. Changing the energy of the incident x ray influenced the range of the primary photoelectron and noticeably affected the tail of the experimental PHS, but did not significantly change the avalanche Swank factor

  8. Scenarios for energy forecasting: papers of the symposium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    Energy planning is important for every developed country and therefore also for South Africa. However, during 1984 it was felt by interested parties that the work in this field should be coordinated through mutual discussion. With this in mind a 'Task Team for Energy Forecasting' was formed with the task to generate acceptable forecasts of the energy set-up in South Africa. Knowledge of the relationship between energy and variables such as the economy and the population is necessary to the Task Team. However, the Task Team also needs some insight into the future paths of such variables if it has to generate energy forecasts. It is the purpose of this symposium to improve this insight through having experts in all relevant fields to set out and develop their possible future scenarios independently of energy forecasting

  9. Avalanche weak layer shear fracture parameters from the cohesive crack model

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClung, David

    2014-05-01

    Dry slab avalanches release by mode II shear fracture within thin weak layers under cohesive snow slabs. The important fracture parameters include: nominal shear strength, mode II fracture toughness and mode II fracture energy. Alpine snow is not an elastic material unless the rate of deformation is very high. For natural avalanche release, it would not be possible that the fracture parameters can be considered as from classical fracture mechanics from an elastic framework. The strong rate dependence of alpine snow implies that it is a quasi-brittle material (Bažant et al., 2003) with an important size effect on nominal shear strength. Further, the rate of deformation for release of an avalanche is unknown, so it is not possible to calculate the fracture parameters for avalanche release from any model which requires the effective elastic modulus. The cohesive crack model does not require the modulus to be known to estimate the fracture energy. In this paper, the cohesive crack model was used to calculate the mode II fracture energy as a function of a brittleness number and nominal shear strength values calculated from slab avalanche fracture line data (60 with natural triggers; 191 with a mix of triggers). The brittleness number models the ratio of the approximate peak value of shear strength to nominal shear strength. A high brittleness number (> 10) represents large size relative to fracture process zone (FPZ) size and the implications of LEFM (Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics). A low brittleness number (e.g. 0.1) represents small sample size and primarily plastic response. An intermediate value (e.g. 5) implies non-linear fracture mechanics with intermediate relative size. The calculations also implied effective values for the modulus and the critical shear fracture toughness as functions of the brittleness number. The results showed that the effective mode II fracture energy may vary by two orders of magnitude for alpine snow with median values ranging from 0

  10. Forecasting residential electricity demand in provincial China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Hua; Liu, Yanan; Gao, Yixuan; Hao, Yu; Ma, Xiao-Wei; Wang, Kan

    2017-03-01

    In China, more than 80% electricity comes from coal which dominates the CO2 emissions. Residential electricity demand forecasting plays a significant role in electricity infrastructure planning and energy policy designing, but it is challenging to make an accurate forecast for developing countries. This paper forecasts the provincial residential electricity consumption of China in the 13th Five-Year-Plan (2016-2020) period using panel data. To overcome the limitations of widely used predication models with unreliably prior knowledge on function forms, a robust piecewise linear model in reduced form is utilized to capture the non-deterministic relationship between income and residential electricity consumption. The forecast results suggest that the growth rates of developed provinces will slow down, while the less developed will be still in fast growing. The national residential electricity demand will increase at 6.6% annually during 2016-2020, and populous provinces such as Guangdong will be the main contributors to the increments.

  11. Error diagrams and temporal correlations in a fracture model with characteristic and power-law distributed avalanches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moreno, Y.; Vázquez-Prada, M.; Pacheco, A.F.

    2003-01-01

    to the heterogeneity of the system. In one regime, a characteristic event is observed while for the second regime a power-law spectrum of avalanches is obtained reminiscent of self-organized criticality. We find that both regimes are different when predicting large avalanches and that, in the second regime...

  12. Emplacement mechanisms of contrasting debris avalanches at Volcán Mombacho (Nicaragua), provided by structural and facies analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shea, Thomas; van Wyk de Vries, Benjamin; Pilato, Martín

    2008-07-01

    We study the lithology, structure, and emplacement of two debris-avalanche deposits (DADs) with contrasting origins and materials from the Quaternary-Holocene Mombacho Volcano, Nicaragua. A clear comparison is possible because both DADs were emplaced onto similar nearly flat (3° slope) topography with no apparent barrier to transport. This lack of confinement allows us to study, in nature, the perfect case scenario of a freely spreading avalanche. In addition, there is good evidence that no substratum was incorporated in the events during flow, so facies changes are related only to internal dynamics. Mombacho shows evidence of at least three large flank collapses, producing the two well-preserved debris avalanches of this study; one on its northern flank, “Las Isletas,” directed northeast, and the other on its southern flank, “El Crater,” directed south. Other south-eastern features indicate that the debris-avalanche corresponding to the third collapse (La Danta) occurred before Las Isletas and El Crater events. The materials involved in each event were similar, except in their alteration state and in the amount of substrata initially included in the collapse. While “El Crater” avalanche shows no signs of substratum involvement and has characteristics of a hydrothermal weakening-related collapse, the “Las Isletas” avalanche involves significant substratum and was generated by gravity spreading-related failure. The latter avalanche may have interacted with Lake Nicaragua during transport, in which case its run-out could have been modified. Through a detailed morphological and structural description of the Mombacho avalanches, we provide two contrasting examples of non-eruptive volcanic flank collapse. We show that, remarkably, even with two distinct collapse mechanisms, the debris avalanches developed the same gross stratigraphy of a coarse layer above a fine layer. This fine layer provided a low friction basal slide layer. Whereas DAD layering and

  13. Meshfree simulation of avalanches with the Finite Pointset Method (FPM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Isabel; Kuhnert, Jörg; Kolymbas, Dimitrios

    2017-04-01

    Meshfree methods are the numerical method of choice in case of applications which are characterized by strong deformations in conjunction with free surfaces or phase boundaries. In the past the meshfree Finite Pointset Method (FPM) developed by Fraunhofer ITWM (Kaiserslautern, Germany) has been successfully applied to problems in computational fluid dynamics such as water crossing of cars, water turbines, and hydraulic valves. Most recently the simulation of granular flows, e.g. soil interaction with cars (rollover), has also been tackled. This advancement is the basis for the simulation of avalanches. Due to the generalized finite difference formulation in FPM, the implementation of different material models is quite simple. We will demonstrate 3D simulations of avalanches based on the Drucker-Prager yield criterion as well as the nonlinear barodesy model. The barodesy model (Division of Geotechnical and Tunnel Engineering, University of Innsbruck, Austria) describes the mechanical behavior of soil by an evolution equation for the stress tensor. The key feature of successful and realistic simulations of avalanches - apart from the numerical approximation of the occurring differential operators - is the choice of the boundary conditions (slip, no-slip, friction) between the different phases of the flow as well as the geometry. We will discuss their influences for simplified one- and two-phase flow examples. This research is funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) and the FWF Austrian Science Fund.

  14. Early forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon: case study 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surovyatkina, Elena; Stolbova, Veronika; Kurths, Jurgen

    2017-04-01

    The prior knowledge of dates of onset and withdrawal of monsoon is of vital importance for the population of the Indian subcontinent. In May 2016 before monsoon season, India recorded its highest-ever temperature of 51C. Hot waves have decimated crops, killed livestock and left 330 million people without enough water. At the end of monsoon season the floods in Indian this year have also broken previous records. Severe and devastating rainfall poured down, triggering dams spilling and floods. Such extreme conditions pose the vital questions such as: When will the monsoon come? When will the monsoon withdraw? More lead time in monsoon forecast warning is crucial for taking appropriate decisions at various levels - from the farmer's field (e.g. plowing day, seeding) to the central government (e.g. managing water and energy resources, food procurement policies). The Indian Meteorological Department issues forecasts of onset of monsoon for Kerala state in South India on May 15-th. It does not give such predictions for the other 28 states of the country. Our study concerns the central part of India. We made the monsoon forecast using our recently developed method which focuses on Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon [1]. Our prediction relies on observations of near-surface air temperature and relative humidity from both the ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. We performed both of our forecasts for the onset and withdrawal of monsoon for the central part of India, the Eastern Ghats (20N,80E). We predicted the monsoon arrival to the Eastern Ghats (20N,80E) on the 13th of June with a deviation of +/-4 days. The prediction was made on May 6-th, 2016 [2], that is 40 days in advance of the date of the forecast. The actual monsoon arrival was June 17-th. In this day near-surface air temperature and relative humidity overcame the critical values and the monsoon season started, that was confirmed by observations of meteorological stations located around the EG-region. We

  15. Forecasting the demand for health tourism in Asian countries using a GM(1,1)-Alpha model

    OpenAIRE

    Ya-Ling Huang

    2012-01-01

    The purpose – Accurately forecasting the demand for international health tourism is important to newly-emerging markets in the world. The aim of this study was presents a more suitable and accurate model for forecasting the demand for health tourism that should be more theoretically useful. Design – Applying GM(1,1) with adaptive levels of α (hereafter GM(1,1)-α model) to provide a concise prediction model that will improve the ability to forecast the demand for health tourism in Asian cou...

  16. LOW-BACK PAIN DISORDERS AS OCCUPATIONAL DISEASES IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC AND 22 EUROPEAN COUNTRIES: COMPARISON OF NATIONAL SYSTEMS, RELATED DIAGNOSES AND EVALUATION CRITERIA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laštovková, Andrea; Nakládalová, Marie; Fenclová, Zdenka; Urban, Pavel; Gad'ourek, Petr; Lebeda, Tomáš; Ehler, Edvard; Ridzoň, Petr; Hlávková, Jana; Boriková, Alena; Kuijer, P. Paul F. M.; Bátora, Igor; Scholz-Odermatt, Stefan M.; Moldovan, Horatiu; Godderis, Lode; Leijon, Ola; Campo, Giuseppe; Vaněčková, Manuela; Bonneterre, Vincent; Stikova, Elisaveta Jasna; Pelclová, Daniela

    2015-01-01

    Low-back pain diseases (LBPD) belong to the most frequent diagnoses determined by general practitioners, and constitute one of the most common reasons for sick leave and permanent disability pension in the Czech Republic and other European countries. Epidemiological studies have shown a

  17. Ethical issues in forecasting of natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinti, Stefano

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazards have by definition a large impact on the society and, therefore, since the beginning of science one of the major aspiration of mankind has been the prediction of natural calamities in the attempt to avoid or to mitigate their effects. In modern societies where science and technology have gained a foundational role, forecasts and predictions have become part of the every-day life and may also influence state policies and economic development. And in parallel with the growing importance of forecasting, even ethical problems for forecasters and for forecasters communities have started to appear. In this work two of the many geo-ethical issues are considered mostly: 1) how to cope with uncertainties that are inherently associated with any forecast statement; 2) how to handle predictions in scientific journals and scientific conferences The former issue is mainly related to the impact of predictions on the general public and on managers and operators in the civil protection field. Forecasters operate in specific contexts that 1) may change from country to country, depending on the local adopted best practices, but also, which is more constraining, on the local legal regulations and laws; 2) may change from discipline to discipline according to the development of the specific knowhow and the range of the forecast (from minutes to centuries) The second issue has to do with the communication of the scientific results on predictions and on prediction methods to the audience mainly composed of scientists, and involves one of the basic elements of science. In principle, scientists should use scientific communication means (papers in scientific journals, conferences, …) to illustrate results that are sound and certain, or the methods by means of which they conduct their research. But scientists involved in predictions have inherently to do with uncertainties, and, since there is no common agreement on how to deal with them, there is the risk that scientific

  18. Silicon avalanche photodiodes on the base of metal-resistor-semiconductor (MRS) structures

    CERN Document Server

    Saveliev, V

    2000-01-01

    The development of a high quantum efficiency, fast photodetector, with internal gain amplification for the wavelength range 450-600 nm is one of the critical issues for experimental physics - registration of low-intensity light photons flux. The new structure of Silicon Avalanche Detectors with high internal amplification (10 sup 5 -10 sup 6) has been designed, manufactured and tested for registration of visible light photons and charge particles. The main features of Metal-Resistor-Semiconductor (MRS) structures are the high charge multiplication in nonuniform electric field near the 'needle' pn-junction and negative feedback for stabilization of avalanche process due to resistive layer.

  19. An Hourly Streamflow Forecasting Model Coupled with an Enforced Learning Strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chang Wu

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Floods, one of the most significant natural hazards, often result in loss of life and property. Accurate hourly streamflow forecasting is always a key issue in hydrology for flood hazard mitigation. To improve the performance of hourly streamflow forecasting, a methodology concerning the development of neural network (NN based models with an enforced learning strategy is proposed in this paper. Firstly, four different NNs, namely back propagation network (BPN, radial basis function network (RBFN, self-organizing map (SOM, and support vector machine (SVM, are used to construct streamflow forecasting models. Through the cross-validation test, NN-based models with superior performance in streamflow forecasting are detected. Then, an enforced learning strategy is developed to further improve the performance of the superior NN-based models, i.e., SOM and SVM in this study. Finally, the proposed flow forecasting model is obtained. Actual applications are conducted to demonstrate the potential of the proposed model. Moreover, comparison between the NN-based models with and without the enforced learning strategy is performed to evaluate the effect of the enforced learning strategy on model performance. The results indicate that the NN-based models with the enforced learning strategy indeed improve the accuracy of hourly streamflow forecasting. Hence, the presented methodology is expected to be helpful for developing improved NN-based streamflow forecasting models.

  20. Martian Dust Devil Electron Avalanche Process and Associated Electrochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Telana L.; Farrell, William M.; Delory, Gregory T.; Nithianandam, Jeyasingh

    2010-01-01

    Mars' dynamic atmosphere displays localized dust devils and larger, global dust storms. Based on terrestrial analog studies, electrostatic modeling, and laboratory work these features will contain large electrostatic fields formed via triboelectric processes. In the low-pressure Martian atmosphere, these fields may create an electron avalanche and collisional plasma due to an increase in electron density driven by the internal electrical forces. To test the hypothesis that an electron avalanche is sustained under these conditions, a self-consistent atmospheric process model is created including electron impact ionization sources and electron losses via dust absorption, electron dissociation attachment, and electron/ion recombination. This new model is called the Dust Devil Electron Avalanche Model (DDEAM). This model solves simultaneously nine continuity equations describing the evolution of the primary gaseous chemical species involved in the electrochemistry. DDEAM monitors the evolution of the electrons and primary gas constituents, including electron/water interactions. We especially focus on electron dynamics and follow the electrons as they evolve in the E field driven collisional gas. When sources and losses are self-consistently included in the electron continuity equation, the electron density grows exponentially with increasing electric field, reaching an equilibrium that forms a sustained time-stable collisional plasma. However, the character of this plasma differs depending upon the assumed growth rate saturation process (chemical saturation versus space charge). DDEAM also shows the possibility of the loss of atmospheric methane as a function of electric field due to electron dissociative attachment of the hydrocarbon. The methane destruction rates are presented and can be included in other larger atmospheric models.

  1. Early Holocene (8.6 ka) rock avalanche deposits, Obernberg valley (Eastern Alps): Landform interpretation and kinematics of rapid mass movement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostermann, Marc; Sanders, Diethard; Ivy-Ochs, Susan; Alfimov, Vasily; Rockenschaub, Manfred; Römer, Alexander

    2012-10-15

    In the Obernberg valley, the Eastern Alps, landforms recently interpreted as moraines are re-interpreted as rock avalanche deposits. The catastrophic slope failure involved an initial rock volume of about 45 million m³, with a runout of 7.2 km over a total vertical distance of 1330 m (fahrböschung 10°). 36 Cl surface-exposure dating of boulders of the avalanche mass indicates an event age of 8.6 ± 0.6 ka. A 14 C age of 7785 ± 190 cal yr BP of a palaeosoil within an alluvial fan downlapping the rock avalanche is consistent with the event age. The distal 2 km of the rock-avalanche deposit is characterized by a highly regular array of transverse ridges that were previously interpreted as terminal moraines of Late-Glacial. 'Jigsaw-puzzle structure' of gravel to boulder-size clasts in the ridges and a matrix of cataclastic gouge indicate a rock avalanche origin. For a wide altitude range the avalanche deposit is preserved, and the event age of mass-wasting precludes both runout over glacial ice and subsequent glacial overprint. The regularly arrayed transverse ridges thus were formed during freezing of the rock avalanche deposits.

  2. Avalanches and generalized memory associativity in a network model for conscious and unconscious mental functioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqui, Maheen; Wedemann, Roseli S.; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft

    2018-01-01

    We explore statistical characteristics of avalanches associated with the dynamics of a complex-network model, where two modules corresponding to sensorial and symbolic memories interact, representing unconscious and conscious mental processes. The model illustrates Freud's ideas regarding the neuroses and that consciousness is related with symbolic and linguistic memory activity in the brain. It incorporates the Stariolo-Tsallis generalization of the Boltzmann Machine in order to model memory retrieval and associativity. In the present work, we define and measure avalanche size distributions during memory retrieval, in order to gain insight regarding basic aspects of the functioning of these complex networks. The avalanche sizes defined for our model should be related to the time consumed and also to the size of the neuronal region which is activated, during memory retrieval. This allows the qualitative comparison of the behaviour of the distribution of cluster sizes, obtained during fMRI measurements of the propagation of signals in the brain, with the distribution of avalanche sizes obtained in our simulation experiments. This comparison corroborates the indication that the Nonextensive Statistical Mechanics formalism may indeed be more well suited to model the complex networks which constitute brain and mental structure.

  3. An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Syed Aziz Ur Rehman; Yanpeng Cai; Rizwan Fazal; Gordhan Das Walasai; Nayyar Hussain Mirjat

    2017-01-01

    Energy planning and policy development require an in-depth assessment of energy resources and long-term demand forecast estimates. Pakistan, unfortunately, lacks reliable data on its energy resources as well do not have dependable long-term energy demand forecasts. As a result, the policy makers could not come up with an effective energy policy in the history of the country. Energy demand forecast has attained greatest ever attention in the perspective of growing population and diminishing fo...

  4. Coal production forecast and low carbon policies in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jianzhou; Dong Yao; Wu Jie; Mu Ren; Jiang He

    2011-01-01

    With rapid economic growth and industrial expansion, China consumes more coal than any other nation. Therefore, it is particularly crucial to forecast China's coal production to help managers make strategic decisions concerning China's policies intended to reduce carbon emissions and concerning the country's future needs for domestic and imported coal. Such decisions, which must consider results from forecasts, will have important national and international effects. This article proposes three improved forecasting models based on grey systems theory: the Discrete Grey Model (DGM), the Rolling DGM (RDGM), and the p value RDGM. We use the statistical data of coal production in China from 1949 to 2005 to validate the effectiveness of these improved models to forecast the data from 2006 to 2010. The performance of the models demonstrates that the p value RDGM has the best forecasting behaviour over this historical time period. Furthermore, this paper forecasts coal production from 2011 to 2015 and suggests some policies for reducing carbon and other emissions that accompany the rise in forecasted coal production. - Highlights: → Improved forecasting models make full use of the advantages of individual model. → Proposed models create commendable improvements for current research. → Proposed models do not make complicated decisions about the explicit form. → We forecast coal production of China from 2011 to 2015. → We suggest some policies for reducing carbon emissions.

  5. Coal production forecast and low carbon policies in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Jianzhou [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Dong Yao, E-mail: dongyao20051987@yahoo.cn [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Wu Jie; Mu Ren; Jiang He [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China)

    2011-10-15

    With rapid economic growth and industrial expansion, China consumes more coal than any other nation. Therefore, it is particularly crucial to forecast China's coal production to help managers make strategic decisions concerning China's policies intended to reduce carbon emissions and concerning the country's future needs for domestic and imported coal. Such decisions, which must consider results from forecasts, will have important national and international effects. This article proposes three improved forecasting models based on grey systems theory: the Discrete Grey Model (DGM), the Rolling DGM (RDGM), and the p value RDGM. We use the statistical data of coal production in China from 1949 to 2005 to validate the effectiveness of these improved models to forecast the data from 2006 to 2010. The performance of the models demonstrates that the p value RDGM has the best forecasting behaviour over this historical time period. Furthermore, this paper forecasts coal production from 2011 to 2015 and suggests some policies for reducing carbon and other emissions that accompany the rise in forecasted coal production. - Highlights: > Improved forecasting models make full use of the advantages of individual model. > Proposed models create commendable improvements for current research. > Proposed models do not make complicated decisions about the explicit form. > We forecast coal production of China from 2011 to 2015. > We suggest some policies for reducing carbon emissions.

  6. Application of seasonal rainfall forecasts and satellite rainfall observations to crop yield forecasting for Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greatrex, H. L.; Grimes, D. I. F.; Wheeler, T. R.

    2009-04-01

    generated, thus describing the likely accuracy of the forecast. The system is currently under development for Ethiopian maize with the potential to expand to other African countries.

  7. First characterisation of the "Rumi-Pana" rock avalanche deposits (Famatina Range, La Rioja, Argentina)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santiago Pullarello, José; Derron, Marc-Henri; Penna, Ivanna; Leiva, Alicia; Jaboyadoff, Michel

    2017-04-01

    Active mountain fronts are subject to large scale slope collapses which have the capacity to run long distances on piedmont areas. Along time, fluvial activity and other gravitatory processes can intensively erode and mask primary features related to the collapses. Therefore, to reconstruct the history of their occurrence, further analyses are needed, e.g. sedimentologic analyses. This work focuses on the occurrence of large rock avalanches in the Vinchina region, La Rioja (28°43'27.81'' S / 68°00'25.42'' W) on the western side of the Famatina range(Argentina). Here, photointerpretation of high resolution satellite images (Google Earth) allowed us to identify two rock avalanches, main scarps developed at 2575 and 2750 m a.s.l. . There are no absolute ages for these deposits, however, comparing their preservation degree with those dated further north (in similar climatic and landscape dynamics contexts [i]), we can suggest these rock avalanches took place during the Pleistocene. We carried out a fieldwork survey in this remote area, including classical landslide mapping, structural analysis, deposits characterization and sampling. The deposits reach the valley bottom (at around 1700 m a.s.l.) with runouts about 5 and 5.3 km long. In one of the cases, the morphology of the deposit is well preserved, allowing to reconstruct accurately its extension. However, in the second case, the deposits are strongly eroded by courses draining the mountain front, therefore further analyses should be done to reconstruct its extension. In addition to morphologic interpretations, a multiscale grain-size analysis was done to differentiate rock avalanches from other hillslope deposits: (1) 3D surface models of surface plots (5x5m) have been built by SfM photogrammetry; 2) classical sieving and 3) laser grain-size analysis of deposits. Samples were collected on different parts of the slope, but also along cross sections through the avalanche deposit. This deposits characterization will

  8. Recent Progress of Solar Weather Forecasting at Naoc

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Han; Wang, Huaning; Du, Zhanle; Zhang, Liyun; Huang, Xin; Yan, Yan; Fan, Yuliang; Zhu, Xiaoshuai; Guo, Xiaobo; Dai, Xinghua

    The history of solar weather forecasting services at National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences (NAOC) can be traced back to 1960s. Nowadays, NAOC is the headquarters of the Regional Warning Center of China (RWC-China), which is one of the members of the International Space Environment Service (ISES). NAOC is responsible for exchanging data, information and space weather forecasts of RWC-China with other RWCs. The solar weather forecasting services at NAOC cover short-term prediction (within two or three days), medium-term prediction (within several weeks), and long-term prediction (in time scale of solar cycle) of solar activities. Most efforts of the short-term prediction research are concentrated on the solar eruptive phenomena, such as flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar proton events, which are the key driving sources of strong space weather disturbances. Based on the high quality observation data of the latest space-based and ground-based solar telescopes and with the help of artificial intelligence techniques, new numerical models with quantitative analyses and physical consideration are being developed for the predictions of solar eruptive events. The 3-D computer simulation technology is being introduced for the operational solar weather service platform to visualize the monitoring of solar activities, the running of the prediction models, as well as the presenting of the forecasting results. A new generation operational solar weather monitoring and forecasting system is expected to be constructed in the near future at NAOC.

  9. The electromagnetic radiation fields of a relativistic electron avalanche with special attention to the origin of narrow bipolar pulses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooray, G. V.; Cooray, G. K.

    2011-12-01

    Gurevich et al. [1] postulated that the source of narrow bipolar pulses, a class of high energy pulses that occur during thunderstorms, could be a runaway electron avalanche driven by the intense electric fields of a thunderstorm. Recently, Watson and Marshall [2] used the modified transmission line model to test the mechanism of the source of narrow bipolar pulses. In a recent paper, Cooray and Cooray [3] demonstrated that the electromagnetic fields of accelerating charges could be used to evaluate the electromagnetic fields from electrical discharges if the temporal and spatial variation of the charges in the discharge is known. In the present study, those equations were utilized to evaluate the electromagnetic fields generated by a relativistic electron avalanche. In the analysis it is assumed that all the electrons in the avalanche are moving with the same speed. In other words, the growth or the decay of the number of electrons takes place only at the head of the avalanche. It is shown that the radiation is emanating only from the head of the avalanche where electrons are being accelerated. It is also shown that an analytical expression for the radiation field of the avalanche at any distance can be written directly in terms of the e-folding length of the avalanche. This makes it possible to extract directly the spatial variation of the e-folding length of the avalanche from the measured radiation fields. In the study this model avalanche was used to investigate whether it can be used to describe the measured electromagnetic fields of narrow bipolar pulses. The results obtained are in reasonable agreement with the two station data of Eack [4] for speeds of propagation around (2 - 2.5) x 10^8 m/s and when the propagation effects on the electric fields measured at the distant station is taken into account. [1] Gurevich et al. (2004), Phys. Lett. A., 329, pp. 348 -361. [2] Watson, S. S. and T. C. Marshall (2007), Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, L04816, doi: 10

  10. Latin America wind market assessment. Forecast 2013-2022

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-10-15

    Wind Power Activities by Country: Developers/Owners, Wind Plant Sizes, Wind Turbines Deployed, Commissioning Dates, Market Share, and Capacity Forecasts Latin American markets are a subject of intense interest from the global wind industry. Wind plant construction across Latin America is modest compared to the more established markets like the United States, Europe, and China, but it is an emerging market that is taking off at a rapid pace. The region has become the hottest alternative growth market for the wind energy industry at a time when growth rates in other markets are flat due to a variety of policy and macroeconomic challenges. Globalization is driving sustainable economic growth in most Latin American countries, resulting in greater energy demand. Wind is increasingly viewed as a valuable and essential answer to increasing electricity generation across most markets in Latin America. Strong wind resources, coupled with today's sophisticated wind turbines, are providing cost-effective generation that is competitive with fossil fuel generation. Most Latin American countries also rely heavily on hydroelectricity, which balances well with variable wind generation. Navigant Research forecasts that if most wind plants under construction with planned commissioning go online as scheduled, annual wind power installations in Latin America will grow from nearly 2.2 GW in 2013 to 4.3 GW by 2022. This Navigant Research report provides a comprehensive view of the wind energy market dynamics at play in Latin America. It offers a country-by-country analysis, outlining the key energy policies and development opportunities and barriers and identifying which companies own operational wind plants and which wind turbine vendors supplied those projects. Market forecasts for wind power installations, capacity, and market share in Latin America, segmented by country and company, extend through 2022. The report also offers an especially close analysis of Brazil and Mexico

  11. Trigger mechanisms of debris avalanche. Comparison between Bandai-san 1888 and the other cases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ui, Tadahide

    1988-08-25

    This report describes a trial of classifying the trigger mechanisms of debris avalanche in a volcanic action, on the basis of a geography and the structure of the sedimentation. Reason of disintegration is diversified but the debris avalanche is caused by the destruction of the unstable mountain mass. In the case of the 1888 debris avalanche of Bandai-san, a small steam explosion at the end of the strato-volcanic activity caused the instability of a part of the mountain mass, inducing a landslide. At the active period of the volcano, a viscous magma penetrates into the volcano mass, sometimes deforming the mountain body and eventually reaching disintegration. Furthermore, an eroded valley on the surface of the volcano body develops and disintegrates and, also along the slope of the volcano, a disintegration towards the sea-bottom will occur. (4 figs, 4 tabs, 19 refs)

  12. Ecological monitoring for Berlin and its back country

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, G.

    1992-01-01

    In 1991, the city of Berlin started the implementation of the 'monitoring program natural budget'. The aim of this program is the assessment of biological and ecological effects of atmospheric pollution as well as the analysis and evaluation of the functioning of the natural balance in pine forest ecosystems in the city area of Berlin and in the close vicinity. The investigations should make temporal and regional statements possible. Techniques of active and passive monitoring are applied (effect cadastre) as well as extensive investigations in long-term observation areas (at present pine forest systems). The ecosystem itself is in the foreground as a sensitive indicator for an existing atmospheric pollution load. The results should enable forecasts of the development of the related organisms and the ecosystems under the effect of anthropogenic load factors. (orig.) [de

  13. The Large-Scale Debris Avalanche From The Tancitaro Volcano (Mexico): Characterization And Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, S.; Gigli, G.; Falorni, G.; Garduno Monroy, V. H.; Arreygue, E.

    2008-12-01

    The Tancitaro is an andesitic-dacitic stratovolcano located in the Michoacán Guanajuato volcanic field within the west-central portion of the trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. The volcanism in this area is characterized by two composite volcanoes, the highest of which is the Tancitaro volcanic edifice (3840 m), some low angle lava cones and more than 1,000 monogenetic cinder cones. The distribution of the cinder cones is controlled by NE-SW active faults, although there are also additional faults with NNW-SSE trends along which some cones are aligned. The Tancitaro stratovolcano is located at the intersection of the tectonical structures that originate these alignments. All this geological activity has contributed to the gravitational instability of the volcano, leading to a huge sector collapse which produced the investigated debris avalanche. The collapse structure is an east-facing horseshoe-shaped crater (4 km wide and 5.3 km long), related with a large fan that was deposited within the Tepalcatepec depression. The deposit starts only 7 km downslope from the failure scar, it is 66 km long and covers an area of approximately 1155 km2. The landslide magnitude is about 20 km3 and it was firstly determined by the reconstruction of the paleo-edifice using a GIS software and then validated by the observation of significant outcrops. The fan was primarily formed by the deposit of this huge debris avalanche and subsequently by debris flow and fluvial deposits. Field investigations on the fan area highlighted the presence of two texturally distinct parts, which are referred to the 'block facies' and the 'matrix facies'. The first sedimentary structure is responsible for the typical hummock morphologies in the proximal area, as seen in many other debris avalanche deposits. Instead in the distal zones, the deposit is made up by the 'mixed block and matrix facies'. Blocks and megablocks, some of which are characterized by a jigsaw puzzle texture, gradually decrease in size

  14. Indirect flat-panel detector with avalanche gain: Fundamental feasibility investigation for SHARP-AMFPI (scintillator HARP active matrix flat panel imager)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Wei; Li Dan; Reznik, Alla; Lui, B.J.M.; Hunt, D.C.; Rowlands, J.A.; Ohkawa, Yuji; Tanioka, Kenkichi

    2005-01-01

    An indirect flat-panel imager (FPI) with avalanche gain is being investigated for low-dose x-ray imaging. It is made by optically coupling a structured x-ray scintillator CsI(Tl) to an amorphous selenium (a-Se) avalanche photoconductor called HARP (high-gain avalanche rushing photoconductor). The final electronic image is read out using an active matrix array of thin film transistors (TFT). We call the proposed detector SHARP-AMFPI (scintillator HARP active matrix flat panel imager). The advantage of the SHARP-AMFPI is its programmable gain, which can be turned on during low dose fluoroscopy to overcome electronic noise, and turned off during high dose radiography to avoid pixel saturation. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the important design considerations for SHARP-AMFPI such as avalanche gain, which depends on both the thickness d Se and the applied electric field E Se of the HARP layer. To determine the optimal design parameter and operational conditions for HARP, we measured the E Se dependence of both avalanche gain and optical quantum efficiency of an 8 μm HARP layer. The results were used in a physical model of HARP as well as a linear cascaded model of the FPI to determine the following x-ray imaging properties in both the avalanche and nonavalanche modes as a function of E Se : (1) total gain (which is the product of avalanche gain and optical quantum efficiency); (2) linearity; (3) dynamic range; (4) gain nonuniformity resulting from thickness nonuniformity; and (5) effects of direct x-ray interaction in HARP. Our results showed that a HARP layer thickness of 8 μm can provide adequate avalanche gain and sufficient dynamic range for x-ray imaging applications to permit quantum limited operation over the range of exposures needed for radiography and fluoroscopy

  15. Caldera formation at Volcán Colima, Mexico, by a large large holocene volcanic debris avalanche

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luhr, James F.; Prestegaard, Karen L.

    1988-12-01

    About 4,300 years ago, 10 km 3 of the upper cone of ancestral Volcán Colima collapsed to the southwest leaving a horseshoe-shaped caldera 4 km in diameter. The collapse produced a massive volcanic debris avalanche deposit covering over 1550 km 2 on the southern flanks of the volcano and extending at least 70 km from the former summit. The avalanche followed a steep topographic gradient unobstructed by barriers, resulting in an unusually high area/volume ratio for the Colima deposit. The apparent coefficient of friction (fall height/distance traveled) for the Colima avalanche is 0.06, a low value similar to those of other large-volume deposits. The debris avalanche deposit contains 40-75% angular volcanic clasts from the ancestral cone, a small proportion of vesicular blocks that may be juvenile, and in distal exposures, rare carbonate clasts plucked from the underlying surface by the moving avalanche. Clasts range in size to over 20 m in diameter and are brecciated to different degrees, pulverized, and surrounded by a rock-flour matrix. The upper surface of the deposit shows prominent hummocky topography with closed depressions and surface boulders. A thick, coarse-grained, compositionally zoned scoria-fall layer on the upper northeastern slope of the volcano may have erupted at the time of collapse. A fine-grained surge layer is present beneath the avalanche deposit at one locality, apparently representing an initial blast event. Most of the missing volume of the ancestral volcano has since been restored at an average rate of 0.002 km 3/yr through repeated eruptions from the post-caldera cone. As a result, the southern slope of Volcán Colima may again be susceptible to collapse. Over 200,000 people are now living on primary or secondary deposits of the debris avalanche, and a repetition of this event would constitute a volcanic disaster of great magnitude. Ancestral Volcán Colima grew on the southern, trenchward flank of the earlier and larger volcano Nevado de

  16. Forecasting Inflation Using Interest-Rate and Time-Series Models: Some International Evidence.

    OpenAIRE

    Hafer, R W; Hein, Scott E

    1990-01-01

    It has been suggested that inflation forecasts derived from short-term interest rates are as accurate as time-series forecasts. Previous analyses of this notion have focused on U.S. data, providing mixed results. In this article, the authors extend previous work by testing the hypothesis using data taken from the United States and five other countries. Using monthly Eurocurrency rates and the consumer price index for the period 1967-86, their results indicate that time-series forecasts of inf...

  17. Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand forecast by fuzzy logic approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kucukali, Serhat [Civil Engineering Department, Zonguldak Karaelmas University, Incivez 67100, Zonguldak (Turkey); Baris, Kemal [Mining Engineering Department, Zonguldak Karaelmas University, Incivez 67100, Zonguldak (Turkey)

    2010-05-15

    This paper aims to forecast Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand by applying fuzzy logic methodology while general information on economical, political and electricity market conditions of the country is also given. Unlike most of the other forecast models about Turkey's electricity demand, which usually uses more than one parameter, gross domestic product (GDP) based on purchasing power parity was the only parameter used in the model. Proposed model made good predictions and captured the system dynamic behavior covering the years of 1970-2014. The model yielded average absolute relative errors of 3.9%. Furthermore, the model estimates a 4.5% decrease in electricity demand of Turkey in 2009 and the electricity demand growth rates are projected to be about 4% between 2010 and 2014. It is concluded that forecasting the Turkey's short-term gross electricity demand with the country's economic performance will provide more reliable projections. Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of a country could be made by any designer with the help of the fuzzy logic procedure described in this paper. The advantage of this model lies on the ability to mimic the human thinking and reasoning. (author)

  18. Characterisation of Geiger-mode avalanche photodiodes for medical imaging applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Britvitch, I. [Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, CH-8092 Zurich (Switzerland)]. E-mail: Ilia.britvitch@psi.ch; Johnson, I. [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, 141980 Dubna (Russian Federation); Renker, D. [Paul Scherrer Institut, CH-5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland); Stoykov, A. [Paul Scherrer Institut, CH-5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland); Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, 141980 Dubna (Russian Federation); Lorenz, E. [Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, CH-8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Max Planck Institute for Physics, 80805 Munich (Germany)

    2007-02-01

    Recently developed multipixel Geiger-mode avalanche photodiodes (G-APDs) are very promising candidates for the detection of light in medical imaging instruments (e.g. positron emission tomography) as well as in high-energy physics experiments and astrophysical applications. G-APDs are especially well suited for morpho-functional imaging (multimodality PET/CT, SPECT/CT, PET/MRI, SPECT/MRI). G-APDs have many advantages compared to conventional photosensors such as photomultiplier tubes because of their compact size, low-power consumption, high quantum efficiency and insensitivity to magnetic fields. Compared to avalanche photodiodes and PIN diodes, they are advantageous because of their high gain, reduced sensitivity to pick up and the so-called nuclear counter effect and lower noise. We present measurements of the basic G-APD characteristics: photon detection efficiency, gain, inter-cell crosstalk, dynamic range, recovery time and dark count rate.

  19. Characterisation of Geiger-mode avalanche photodiodes for medical imaging applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Britvitch, I.; Johnson, I.; Renker, D.; Stoykov, A.; Lorenz, E.

    2007-01-01

    Recently developed multipixel Geiger-mode avalanche photodiodes (G-APDs) are very promising candidates for the detection of light in medical imaging instruments (e.g. positron emission tomography) as well as in high-energy physics experiments and astrophysical applications. G-APDs are especially well suited for morpho-functional imaging (multimodality PET/CT, SPECT/CT, PET/MRI, SPECT/MRI). G-APDs have many advantages compared to conventional photosensors such as photomultiplier tubes because of their compact size, low-power consumption, high quantum efficiency and insensitivity to magnetic fields. Compared to avalanche photodiodes and PIN diodes, they are advantageous because of their high gain, reduced sensitivity to pick up and the so-called nuclear counter effect and lower noise. We present measurements of the basic G-APD characteristics: photon detection efficiency, gain, inter-cell crosstalk, dynamic range, recovery time and dark count rate

  20. A Novel Ensemble Learning Approach for Corporate Financial Distress Forecasting in Fashion and Textiles Supply Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gang Xie

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel ensemble learning approach based on logistic regression (LR and artificial intelligence tool, that is, support vector machine (SVM and back-propagation neural networks (BPNN, for corporate financial distress forecasting in fashion and textiles supply chains. Firstly, related concepts of LR, SVM, and BPNN are introduced. Then, the forecasting results by LR are introduced into the SVM and BPNN techniques which can recognize the forecasting errors in fitness by LR. Moreover, empirical analysis of Chinese listed companies in fashion and textile sector is implemented for the comparison of the methods, and some related issues are discussed. The results suggest that the proposed novel ensemble learning approach can achieve higher forecasting performance than those of individual models.

  1. The accountability imperative for quantifying the uncertainty of emission forecasts: evidence from Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puig, Daniel; Bakhtiari, Fatemeh; Morales-Napoles, Oswaldo; Landa Rivera, Gissela

    2017-01-01

    Governmental climate change mitigation targets are typically developed with the aid of forecasts of greenhouse-gas emissions. The robustness and credibility of such forecasts depends, among other issues, on the extent to which forecasting approaches can reflect prevailing uncertainties. We apply a transparent and replicable method to quantify the uncertainty associated with projections of gross domestic product growth rates for Mexico, a key driver of greenhouse-gas emissions in the country. We use those projections to produce probabilistic forecasts of greenhouse-gas emissions for Mexico. We contrast our probabilistic forecasts with Mexico's governmental deterministic forecasts. We show that, because they fail to reflect such key uncertainty, deterministic forecasts are ill-suited for use in target-setting processes. We argue that (i) guidelines should be agreed upon, to ensure that governmental forecasts meet certain minimum transparency and quality standards, and (ii) governments should be held accountable for the appropriateness of the forecasting approach applied to prepare governmental forecasts, especially when those forecasts are used to derive climate change mitigation targets. (authors)

  2. Large area avalanche MRS-photodiodes for nuclear spectroscopy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ermalitski, F A; Zalesski, V B

    1996-12-31

    Problems of application of avalanche photodiodes (APD) in readout systems of nuclear spectrometers are considered. APD`s with a large sensitive area of a diameter 1-5 mm and a high multiplication coefficient 200-1000 are created. MPS-photodiodes provide for the energy resolution 80% at temperature 231 K for detecting gamma-quanta with energy 662 keV. 4 refs.

  3. Forecasting and Warning of Tropical Cyclones in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bangzhong Wang

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available With the development of the global economy, the impact of tropical cyclones has become far-reaching. Thus they are a fundamental issue to be addressed both nationally and globally. The socio-economic impact is particularly noticeable in developing countries, especially China. This paper begins with the effects of cyclones on regional and global economies. Then a brief introduction to the past and current situations and progress in cyclones forecasting and warning in China are presented. Finally the paper gives recommendations about improving and perfecting the tropical cyclone forecasting and warning systems.

  4. Statistical distributions of avalanche size and waiting times in an inter-sandpile cascade model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batac, Rene; Longjas, Anthony; Monterola, Christopher

    2012-02-01

    Sandpile-based models have successfully shed light on key features of nonlinear relaxational processes in nature, particularly the occurrence of fat-tailed magnitude distributions and exponential return times, from simple local stress redistributions. In this work, we extend the existing sandpile paradigm into an inter-sandpile cascade, wherein the avalanches emanating from a uniformly-driven sandpile (first layer) is used to trigger the next (second layer), and so on, in a successive fashion. Statistical characterizations reveal that avalanche size distributions evolve from a power-law p(S)≈S-1.3 for the first layer to gamma distributions p(S)≈Sαexp(-S/S0) for layers far away from the uniformly driven sandpile. The resulting avalanche size statistics is found to be associated with the corresponding waiting time distribution, as explained in an accompanying analytic formulation. Interestingly, both the numerical and analytic models show good agreement with actual inventories of non-uniformly driven events in nature.

  5. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) t......) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time....

  6. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be

  7. Posttraumatic stress and other health consequences of catastrophic avalanches: A 16-year follow-up of survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thordardottir, Edda Bjork; Valdimarsdottir, Unnur Anna; Hansdottir, Ingunn; Resnick, Heidi; Shipherd, Jillian C; Gudmundsdottir, Berglind

    2015-05-01

    To date, no study has investigated the effects of avalanches on survivor's health beyond the first years. The aim of this study was to examine long-term health status 16 years after exposure to avalanches using a matched cohort design. Mental health, sleep quality and somatic symptoms among avalanche survivors (n=286) and non-exposed controls (n=357) were examined. Results showed that 16% of survivors currently experience avalanche-specific PTSD symptoms (PDS score>14). In addition, survivors presented with increased risk of PTSD hyperarousal symptoms (>85th percentile) (aRR=1.83; 98.3% CI [1.23-2.74]); sleep-related problems (PSQI score>5) (aRR=1.34; 95% CI [1.05-1.70]); PTSD-related sleep disturbances (PSQI-A score≥4) (aRR=1.86; 95% CI [1.30-2.67]); musculoskeletal and nervous system problems (aRR 1.43; 99% CI 1.06-1.93) and gastrointestinal problems (aRR 2.16; 99% CI 1.21-3.86) compared to the unexposed group. Results highlight the need for treatment for long-term PTSD symptoms and sleep disruption in disaster communities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  9. A Hybrid Method Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, Firefly Algorithm, and BP Neural Network for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuyang Gao

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available With increasing importance being attached to big data mining, analysis, and forecasting in the field of wind energy, how to select an optimization model to improve the forecasting accuracy of the wind speed time series is not only an extremely challenging problem, but also a problem of concern for economic forecasting. The artificial intelligence model is widely used in forecasting and data processing, but the individual back-propagation artificial neural network cannot always satisfy the time series forecasting needs. Thus, a hybrid forecasting approach has been proposed in this study, which consists of data preprocessing, parameter optimization and a neural network for advancing the accuracy of short-term wind speed forecasting. According to the case study, in which the data are collected from Peng Lai, a city located in China, the simulation results indicate that the hybrid forecasting method yields better predictions compared to the individual BP, which indicates that the hybrid method exhibits stronger forecasting ability.

  10. Technology developments and first measurements on inverse Low Gain Avalanche Detector (iLGAD) for high energy physics applications

    CERN Document Server

    Carulla, M.; Fernández-Martínez, P.; IMB-CNM (CSIC); Flores, D.; IMB-CNM (CSIC); González, J.; Hidalgo, S.; Jaramillo, R.; Merlos, A.; Palomo, F.R.; Pellegrini, G; Quirion, D.; Vila, I.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT: The first Inverse Low Gain Avalanche Detector (iLGAD) have been fabricated at IMB-CNM (CSIC). The iLGAD structure includes the multiplication diffusions at the ohmic contact side while the segmentation is implemented at the front side with multiple P + diffusions. Therefore, iLGAD is P on P position-sensitive detector with a uniform electric field all along the device area that guarantees the same signal amplification wherever a particle passes through the sensitive bulk solving the main draw of the LGAD microstrip detector. However, the detection current is dominated by holes flowing back from the multiplication junction with the subsequent transient current pulse duration increase in comparison with conventional LGAD counterparts. Applications of iLGAD range from tracking and timing applications like determination of primary interaction vertex to medical imaging. The paper addresses the optimization of the iLGAD structure with the aid of TCAD simul...

  11. heat flow in a finite isolated pulsed avalanche semiconductor diode

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ES Obe

    1981-03-01

    Mar 1, 1981 ... high-power high-efficiency avalanche semiconductor devices. The ... computed, and useful practical design curves for a specified operation .... iv. For spherical shells of radius, ρ(x,y,z) = √x2+y2+z2. > R, the heat source.

  12. A position sensitive parallel plate avalanche counter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lombardi, M.; Tan Jilian; Potenza, R.; D'amico, V.

    1986-01-01

    A position sensitive parallel plate avalanche counter with a distributed constant delay-line-cathode (PSAC) is described. The strips formed on the printed board were served as the cathode and the delay line for readout of signals. The detector (PSAC) was operated in isobutane gas at the pressure range from 10 to 20 torr. The position resolution is better than 1 mm and the time resolution is about 350 ps, for 252 Cf fission-spectrum source

  13. Current oscillations in avalanche particle detectors with PNIPN-structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukin, K.A.

    1995-08-01

    The model of an avalanche high energy particle detector consisting of two pn-junctions, connected through an intrinsic semiconductor with a reverse biased voltage applied. This detector is able to generate the oscillatory response on the single particle passage through the structure. The possibility of oscillations leading to chaotic behaviour is pointed out

  14. Forecasting Fossil Fuel Energy Consumption for Power Generation Using QHSA-Based LSSVM Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Sun

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate forecasting of fossil fuel energy consumption for power generation is important and fundamental for rational power energy planning in the electricity industry. The least squares support vector machine (LSSVM is a powerful methodology for solving nonlinear forecasting issues with small samples. The key point is how to determine the appropriate parameters which have great effect on the performance of LSSVM model. In this paper, a novel hybrid quantum harmony search algorithm-based LSSVM (QHSA-LSSVM energy forecasting model is proposed. The QHSA which combines the quantum computation theory and harmony search algorithm is applied to searching the optimal values of and C in LSSVM model to enhance the learning and generalization ability. The case study on annual fossil fuel energy consumption for power generation in China shows that the proposed model outperforms other four comparative models, namely regression, grey model (1, 1 (GM (1, 1, back propagation (BP and LSSVM, in terms of prediction accuracy and forecasting risk.

  15. Back to Work

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Kim

    2010-01-01

    The economic downturn hit working America particularly hard, as agricultural, automotive, manufacturing, and retail jobs in many corners of the country all but evaporated. Consumers continue to cut back, and jobless rates in many states have eclipsed levels not seen in decades. Out of work and under pressure, many Americans are turning to the…

  16. A simulated avalanche search and rescue mission induces temporary physiological and behavioural changes in military dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diverio, Silvana; Barbato, Olimpia; Cavallina, Roberta; Guelfi, Gabriella; Iaboni, Martina; Zasso, Renato; Di Mari, Walter; Santoro, Michele Matteo; Knowles, Toby G

    2016-09-01

    Saving human lives is of paramount importance in avalanche rescue missions. Avalanche military dogs represent an invaluable resource in these operations. However, their performance can be influenced by several environmental, social and transport challenges. If too severe, these are likely to activate a range of responses to stress, which might put at risk the dogs' welfare. The aim of this study was to assess the physiological and behavioural responses of a group of military dogs to a Simulated Avalanche Search and Rescue mission (SASR). Seventeen avalanche dogs from the Italian Military Force Guardia di Finanza (SAGF dogs) were monitored during a simulated search for a buried operator in an artificial avalanche area (SASR). Heart rate (HR), body temperature (RBT) and blood samples were collected at rest the day before the trial (T0), immediately after helicopter transport at the onset of the SASR (T1), after the discovery of the buried operator (T2) and 2h later (T3). Heart rate (HR), rectal body temperature (RBT), cortisol, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), creatine kinase (CK), non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) were measured. During the search mission the behaviour of each SAGF dog was measured by focal animal sampling and qualitatively assessed by its handler and two observers. Inter-rater agreement was evaluated. Snow and environmental variables were also measured. All dogs successfully completed their search for the buried, simulated victim within 10min. The SASR was shown to exert significant increases on RBT, NEFA and cortisol (Pdog's search mission ability was found only for motivation, signalling behaviour, signs of stress and possessive reward playing. More time signalling was related to shorter search time. In conclusion, despite extreme environmental and training conditions only temporary physiological and behavioural changes were recorded in the avalanche dogs. Their excellent performance in successful simulated SASR

  17. What low back pain is and why we need to pay attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartvigsen, Jan; Hancock, Mark J; Kongsted, Alice; Louw, Quinette; Ferreira, Manuela L; Genevay, Stéphane; Hoy, Damian; Karppinen, Jaro; Pransky, Glenn; Sieper, Joachim; Smeets, Rob J; Underwood, Martin

    2018-03-20

    Low back pain is a very common symptom. It occurs in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries and all age groups from children to the elderly population. Globally, years lived with disability caused by low back pain increased by 54% between 1990 and 2015, mainly because of population increase and ageing, with the biggest increase seen in low-income and middle-income countries. Low back pain is now the leading cause of disability worldwide. For nearly all people with low back pain, it is not possible to identify a specific nociceptive cause. Only a small proportion of people have a well understood pathological cause-eg, a vertebral fracture, malignancy, or infection. People with physically demanding jobs, physical and mental comorbidities, smokers, and obese individuals are at greatest risk of reporting low back pain. Disabling low back pain is over-represented among people with low socioeconomic status. Most people with new episodes of low back pain recover quickly; however, recurrence is common and in a small proportion of people, low back pain becomes persistent and disabling. Initial high pain intensity, psychological distress, and accompanying pain at multiple body sites increases the risk of persistent disabling low back pain. Increasing evidence shows that central pain-modulating mechanisms and pain cognitions have important roles in the development of persistent disabling low back pain. Cost, health-care use, and disability from low back pain vary substantially between countries and are influenced by local culture and social systems, as well as by beliefs about cause and effect. Disability and costs attributed to low back pain are projected to increase in coming decades, in particular in low-income and middle-income countries, where health and other systems are often fragile and not equipped to cope with this growing burden. Intensified research efforts and global initiatives are clearly needed to address the burden of low back pain as a public

  18. Prediction of electromagnetic pulse generation by picosecond avalanches in high-pressure air

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayhall, D.J.; Yee, J.H.

    1993-01-01

    The gas avalanche switch is a laser-activated, high-voltage switch, consisting of a set of pulse-charged electrodes in a high-pressure gas. Induced electrons from a picosecond-scale laser pulse initiate an avalanche discharge between high-voltage and grounded electrodes. If the voltage, pressure, and dimensions are correct, the rapid avalanche, fueled by the immense number of electrons available in the gas, collapses the applied voltage in picoseconds and generates electromagnetic pulses with widths as short as 1-10 ps and 3 dB bandwidths of 20-120 GHz. With proper voltage or pressure detuning, wider pulses and lower bandwidths occur. In addition to picosecond electromagnetic pulse generation, application of this switch should result in ultra-fast Marx bank pulsers. A number of versions of the switch are possible. The simplest is a parallel plate capacitor, consisting of a gas between two parallel plate conductors. High voltage is applied across the two plates. A parallel plate, Blumlein geometry features a center electrode between two grounded parallel plates. This geometry emits a single pulse in each direction along the parallel plates. A frozen wave geometry with multiple, oppositely charged center electrodes will emit AC pulses. Series switches consisting of gas gaps between two electrodes are also possible

  19. Progresses in the simulation of Resistive Plate Chambers in avalanche mode

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abbrescia, M.; Colaleo, A.; Iaselli, G.; Loddo, F.; Maggi, M.; Marangelli, B.; Natali, S.; Nuzzo, S.; Pugliese, G.; Ranieri, A.; Romano, F.; Altieri, S.; Bruno, G.; Gianini, G.; Ratti, S.P.; Viola, L.; Vitulo, P

    1999-08-01

    New results about the simulation of Resistive Plate Chambers are reported; particular emphasis is put in the understanding of charge spectra in regions where deviations from the pure avalanche mode of operation can be present.

  20. The Chimborazo sector collapse and debris avalanche : deposit characteristics as evidence of emplacement mechanisms

    OpenAIRE

    Bernard, B.; Vries de, B. V.; Barba, D.; Leyrit, H.; Robin, Claude; Alcaraz, S.; Samaniego, Pablo

    2008-01-01

    Chimborazo is a Late Pleistocene to Holocene stratovolcano located at the southwest end of the main Ecuadorian volcanic arc. It experienced a large sector collapse and debris avalanche (DA) of the initial edifice (CH-1). This left a 4 km wide scar, removing 8.0 +/- 0.5 km(3) of the edifice. The debris avalanche deposit (DAD) is abundantly exposed throughout the Riobamba Basin to the Rio Chambo, more than 35 km southeast of the volcano. The DAD averages a thickness of 40 m, covers about 280 km...

  1. Cataclysmic Rock Avalanche from El Capitan, Yosemite Valley, circa 3.6 ka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, G. M.

    2008-12-01

    El Capitan in Yosemite Valley is one of the largest and most iconic granite faces in the world. Despite glacially steepened walls exceeding 90 degrees, a historic database shows relatively few rock falls from El Capitan in the past 150 years. However, a massive bouldery deposit beneath the southeast face suggests an earlier rock avalanche of unusually large size. Spatial analysis of airborne LiDAR data indicate that the rock avalanche deposit has a volume of ~2.70 x 106 m3, a maximum thickness of 18 m, and a runout distance of 660 m, roughly twice the horizontal extent of the adjacent talus. The deposit is very coarse on its distal edge, with individual boulder volumes up to 2500 m3. Cosmogenic 10Be exposure dates from boulders distributed across the deposit confirm this interpretation. Four 10Be samples are tightly clustered between 3.5 and 3.8 ka, with a mean age of 3.6 +/- 0.6 ka. A fifth sample gives a much older age of 22.0 ka, but a glacier occupied Yosemite Valley at this time, prohibiting deposition; thus, the older age likely results from exposure on the cliff face prior to failure. The similarity of ages and overall morphology suggest that the entire deposit formed during a single event. The mean exposure age coincides with inferred Holocene rupture of the northern Owens Valley and/or White Mountain fault(s) between 3.3 and 3.8 ka (Lee et al., 2001; Bacon and Pezzopane, 2007). This time coincidence, combined with the fact that historic rupture of the Owens Valley fault in A.D. 1872 generated numerous large rock falls in Yosemite Valley, strongly suggests that the El Capitan rock avalanche was triggered by a seismic event along the eastern margin of the Sierra Nevada circa 3.6 ka. As there is not an obvious "scar" on the expansive southeast face, the exact source area of the rock avalanche is not yet known. Detrital apatite U-Th/(He) thermochronometry can determine the elevation(s) from which rock fall boulders originate, but significant inter-sample age

  2. Elements of a coastal ocean forecasting system for India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Shetye, S.R.; Radhakrishnan, K.

    After about four decades of investment in infrastructure for ocean research, an appropriate initiative for India now would be to build a coastal ocean forecasting system to support the country's myriad activities in its Exclusive Economic Zone...

  3. Data collapse and critical dynamics in neuronal avalanche data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Thomas; Friedman, Nir; Dahmen, Karin; Beggs, John; Deville, Lee; Ito, Shinya

    2012-02-01

    The tasks of information processing, computation, and response to stimuli require neural computation to be remarkably flexible and diverse. To optimally satisfy the demands of neural computation, neuronal networks have been hypothesized to operate near a non-equilibrium critical point. In spite of their importance for neural dynamics, experimental evidence for critical dynamics has been primarily limited to power law statistics that can also emerge from non-critical mechanisms. By tracking the firing of large numbers of synaptically connected cortical neurons and comparing the resulting data to the predictions of critical phenomena, we show that cortical tissues in vitro can function near criticality. Among the most striking predictions of critical dynamics is that the mean temporal profiles of avalanches of widely varying durations are quantitatively described by a single universal scaling function (data collapse). We show for the first time that this prediction is confirmed in neuronal networks. We also show that the data have three additional features predicted by critical phenomena: approximate power law distributions of avalanche sizes and durations, samples in subcritical and supercritical phases, and scaling laws between anomalous exponents.

  4. International survey for good practices in forecasting uncertainty assessment and communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berthet, Lionel; Piotte, Olivier

    2014-05-01

    Achieving technically sound flood forecasts is a crucial objective for forecasters but remains of poor use if the users do not understand properly their significance and do not use it properly in decision making. One usual way to precise the forecasts limitations is to communicate some information about their uncertainty. Uncertainty assessment and communication to stakeholders are thus important issues for operational flood forecasting services (FFS) but remain open fields for research. French FFS wants to publish graphical streamflow and level forecasts along with uncertainty assessment in near future on its website (available to the greater public). In order to choose the technical options best adapted to its operational context, it carried out a survey among more than 15 fellow institutions. Most of these are providing forecasts and warnings to civil protection officers while some were mostly working for hydroelectricity suppliers. A questionnaire has been prepared in order to standardize the analysis of the practices of the surveyed institutions. The survey was conducted by gathering information from technical reports or from the scientific literature, as well as 'interviews' driven by phone, email discussions or meetings. The questionnaire helped in the exploration of practices in uncertainty assessment, evaluation and communication. Attention was paid to the particular context within which every insitution works, in the analysis drawn from raw results. Results show that most services interviewed assess their forecasts uncertainty. However, practices can differ significantly from a country to another. Popular techniques are ensemble approaches. They allow to take into account several uncertainty sources. Statistical past forecasts analysis (such as the quantile regressions) are also commonly used. Contrary to what was expected, only few services emphasize the role of the forecaster (subjective assessment). Similar contrasts can be observed in uncertainty

  5. Discrimination Voltage and Overdrive Bias Dependent Performance Evaluation of Passively Quenched SiC Single-Photon-Counting Avalanche Photodiodes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Fei; Yang Sen; Zhou Dong; Lu Hai; Zhang Rong; Zheng You-Dou

    2015-01-01

    In many critical civil and emerging military applications, low-level UV detection, sometimes at single photon level, is highly desired. In this work, a mesa-type 4H-SiC UV avalanche photodiode (APD) is designed and fabricated, which exhibits low leakage current and high avalanche gain. When studied by using a passive quenching circuit, the APD exhibits self-quenching characteristics due to its high differential resistance in the avalanche region. The single photon detection efficiency and dark count rate of the APD are evaluated as functions of discrimination voltage and over-drive voltage. The optimized operation conditions of the single photon counting APD are discussed. (paper)

  6. Nuclear Options for Industrialized and Developing Countries for 2020 Results of a Forecast Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loriette, Ph.; Bootz, J.Ph.

    2002-01-01

    The main objective of the project is to detect one or more nuclear options (consisting of one or several sets of reactors and fuel types) which could present a significant interest for the two horizons of 2020 and 2070. In order to attain this objective it is necessary first to define the energetic context for each of the two horizons. For EDF, the short and medium term issues are essentially to pursue the high quality operation of the existing plants and, on the other hand, to prepare the future in the perspective of the progressive park renewal. The project aims at providing an answer to this second issue. In order to provide the best possible answer, the project will have to address other criteria than the usual technical-economical one and consider every possible option. In particular, the analysis will have to integrate all the aspects: environmental, political, sociological, and market oriented. A forecast study will allow to define scenarios leading to the description of the energetic situation at horizons 2020 and 2070. The general framework of the analysis is defined, among others, by the perspectives concerning the existing park lifetime and economic competitiveness, the different types of energies demand, the European electricity market opening context and the international regulations concerning the greenhouse effect gases emissions. At the same time, the knowledge pertaining to the different innovative concepts will be gathered. Today several technical solutions are proposed by the French and foreign makers and R and D organizations, with varying degrees of development or industrialization. Those solutions concern either the reactors, the fuel or the back end of the cycle or the three topics together. It is therefore necessary to gather the acquired knowledge and to follow the development projects of those options. This activity is a technological watch or state of the art survey. Three types of options are to be distinguished: - evolutionary and

  7. Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay

    2004-01-01

    The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

  8. Avalanche diode having reduced dark current and method for its manufacture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davids, Paul; Starbuck, Andrew Lee; Pomerene, Andrew T. S.

    2017-08-29

    An avalanche diode includes an absorption region in a germanium body epitaxially grown on a silicon body including a multiplication region. Aspect-ratio trapping is used to suppress dislocation growth in the vicinity of the absorption region.

  9. Secondary instability in drift wave turbulence as a mechanism for avalanche and zonal flow formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diamond, P.H.; Champeaux, S.; Malkov, M.

    2001-01-01

    We report on recent developments in the theory of secondary instability in drift-ITG turbulence. Specifically, we explore secondary instability as a mechanism for avalanche formation. A theory of radially extended streamer cell formation and self-regulation is presented. Aspects of streamer structure and dynamics are used to estimate the variance of the drift-wave induced flux. The relation between streamer cell structures and the avalanche concept is discussed, as are the implications of our results for transport modeling. (author)

  10. Ultralow noise midwave infrared InAs-GaSb strain layer superlattice avalanche photodiode

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mallick, Shubhrangshu; Banerjee, Koushik; Ghosh, Siddhartha; Plis, Elena; Rodriguez, Jean Baptiste; Krishna, Sanjay; Grein, Christoph

    2007-01-01

    Eye-safe midwavelength infrared InAs-GaSb strain layer superlattice p + -n - -n homojunction avalanche photodiodes (APDs) grown by solid source molecular beam epitaxy were fabricated and characterized. Maximum multiplication gain of 1800 was measured at -20 V at 77 K. Excess noise factors between 0.8 and 1.2 were measured up to gain of 300. Gain of 200 was measured at 120 K. Exponential nature of the gain as a function of reverse bias along with low excess noise factor at higher gain confirms single carrier electron-only impact ionization in the avalanche regime. Decrease in the multiplication gain at higher temperatures correlates with standard APD characteristics

  11. Demand for oil and energy in developing countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolf, C. Jr.; Relles, D.A.; Navarro, J.

    1980-05-01

    How much of the world's oil and energy supply will the non-OPEC less-developed countries (NOLDCs) demand in the next decade. Will their requirements be small and thus fairly insignificant compared with world demand, or large and relatively important. How will world demand be affected by the economic growth of the NOLDCs. In this report, we try to develop some reasonable forecasts of NOLDC energy demands in the next 10 years. Our focus is mainly on the demand for oil, but we also give some attention to the total commercial energy requirements of these countries. We have tried to be explicit about the uncertainties associated with our forecasts, and with the income and price elasticities on which they are based. Finally, we consider the forecasts in terms of their implications for US policies concerning the NOLDCs and suggest areas of future research on NOLDC energy issues.

  12. Forecasting of electricity prices with neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gareta, Raquel [Centro de Investigacion de Recursos y Consumos Energeticos (CIRCE), Universidad de Zaragoza, Centro Politecnico Superior, Maria de Luna, 3, 50018 Zaragoza (Spain); Romeo, Luis M. [Centro de Investigacion de Recursos y Consumos Energeticos (CIRCE), Universidad de Zaragoza, Centro Politecnico Superior, Maria de Luna, 3, 50018 Zaragoza (Spain)]. E-mail: luismi@unizar.es; Gil, Antonia [Centro de Investigacion de Recursos y Consumos Energeticos (CIRCE), Universidad de Zaragoza, Centro Politecnico Superior, Maria de Luna, 3, 50018 Zaragoza (Spain)

    2006-08-15

    During recent years, the electricity energy market deregulation has led to a new free competition situation in Europe and other countries worldwide. Generators, distributors and qualified clients have some uncertainties about the future evolution of electricity markets. In consequence, feasibility studies of new generation plants, design of new systems and energy management optimization are frequently postponed. The ability of forecasting energy prices, for instance the electricity prices, would be highly appreciated in order to improve the profitability of utility investments. The development of new simulation techniques, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), has provided a good tool to forecast time series. In this paper, it is demonstrated that the Neural Network (NN) approach can be used to forecast short term hourly electricity pool prices (for the next day and two or three days after). The NN architecture and design for prices forecasting are described in this paper. The results are tested with extensive data sets, and good agreement is found between actual data and NN results. This methodology could help to improve power plant generation capacity management and, certainly, more profitable operation in daily energy pools.

  13. Forecasting of electricity prices with neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gareta, Raquel; Romeo, Luis M.; Gil, Antonia

    2006-01-01

    During recent years, the electricity energy market deregulation has led to a new free competition situation in Europe and other countries worldwide. Generators, distributors and qualified clients have some uncertainties about the future evolution of electricity markets. In consequence, feasibility studies of new generation plants, design of new systems and energy management optimization are frequently postponed. The ability of forecasting energy prices, for instance the electricity prices, would be highly appreciated in order to improve the profitability of utility investments. The development of new simulation techniques, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), has provided a good tool to forecast time series. In this paper, it is demonstrated that the Neural Network (NN) approach can be used to forecast short term hourly electricity pool prices (for the next day and two or three days after). The NN architecture and design for prices forecasting are described in this paper. The results are tested with extensive data sets, and good agreement is found between actual data and NN results. This methodology could help to improve power plant generation capacity management and, certainly, more profitable operation in daily energy pools

  14. Should we use seasonnal meteorological ensemble forecasts for hydrological forecasting? A case study for nordic watersheds in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazile, Rachel; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Perreault, Luc; Leconte, Robert; Guay, Catherine

    2017-04-01

    Hydro-electricity is a major source of energy for many countries throughout the world, including Canada. Long lead-time streamflow forecasts are all the more valuable as they help decision making and dam management. Different techniques exist for long-term hydrological forecasting. Perhaps the most well-known is 'Extended Streamflow Prediction' (ESP), which considers past meteorological scenarios as possible, often equiprobable, future scenarios. In the ESP framework, those past-observed meteorological scenarios (climatology) are used in turn as the inputs of a chosen hydrological model to produce ensemble forecasts (one member corresponding to each year in the available database). Many hydropower companies, including Hydro-Québec (province of Quebec, Canada) use variants of the above described ESP system operationally for long-term operation planning. The ESP system accounts for the hydrological initial conditions and for the natural variability of the meteorological variables. However, it cannot consider the current initial state of the atmosphere. Climate models can help remedy this drawback. In the context of a changing climate, dynamical forecasts issued from climate models seem to be an interesting avenue to improve upon the ESP method and could help hydropower companies to adapt their management practices to an evolving climate. Long-range forecasts from climate models can also be helpful for water management at locations where records of past meteorological conditions are short or nonexistent. In this study, we compare 7-month hydrological forecasts obtained from climate model outputs to an ESP system. The ESP system mimics the one used operationally at Hydro-Québec. The dynamical climate forecasts are produced by the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) System4. Forecasts quality is assessed using numerical scores such as the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and the Ignorance score and also graphical tools such as the

  15. A novel stock forecasting model based on High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation Trends and Back Propagation Neural Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Hongjun; Dai, Zongli; Zhao, Aiwu; He, Jie

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to forecast the stock prices called High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation-Trends-based Back Propagation(HTBP)Neural Network model. First, we compare each value of the historical training data with the previous day's value to obtain a fluctuation trend time series (FTTS). On this basis, the FTTS blur into fuzzy time series (FFTS) based on the fluctuation of the increasing, equality, decreasing amplitude and direction. Since the relationship between FFTS and future wave trends is nonlinear, the HTBP neural network algorithm is used to find the mapping rules in the form of self-learning. Finally, the results of the algorithm output are used to predict future fluctuations. The proposed model provides some innovative features:(1)It combines fuzzy set theory and neural network algorithm to avoid overfitting problems existed in traditional models. (2)BP neural network algorithm can intelligently explore the internal rules of the actual existence of sequential data, without the need to analyze the influence factors of specific rules and the path of action. (3)The hybrid modal can reasonably remove noises from the internal rules by proper fuzzy treatment. This paper takes the TAIEX data set of Taiwan stock exchange as an example, and compares and analyzes the prediction performance of the model. The experimental results show that this method can predict the stock market in a very simple way. At the same time, we use this method to predict the Shanghai stock exchange composite index, and further verify the effectiveness and universality of the method.

  16. A novel stock forecasting model based on High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation Trends and Back Propagation Neural Network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongjun Guan

    Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to forecast the stock prices called High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation-Trends-based Back Propagation(HTBPNeural Network model. First, we compare each value of the historical training data with the previous day's value to obtain a fluctuation trend time series (FTTS. On this basis, the FTTS blur into fuzzy time series (FFTS based on the fluctuation of the increasing, equality, decreasing amplitude and direction. Since the relationship between FFTS and future wave trends is nonlinear, the HTBP neural network algorithm is used to find the mapping rules in the form of self-learning. Finally, the results of the algorithm output are used to predict future fluctuations. The proposed model provides some innovative features:(1It combines fuzzy set theory and neural network algorithm to avoid overfitting problems existed in traditional models. (2BP neural network algorithm can intelligently explore the internal rules of the actual existence of sequential data, without the need to analyze the influence factors of specific rules and the path of action. (3The hybrid modal can reasonably remove noises from the internal rules by proper fuzzy treatment. This paper takes the TAIEX data set of Taiwan stock exchange as an example, and compares and analyzes the prediction performance of the model. The experimental results show that this method can predict the stock market in a very simple way. At the same time, we use this method to predict the Shanghai stock exchange composite index, and further verify the effectiveness and universality of the method.

  17. The characteristic patterns of neuronal avalanches in mice under anesthesia and at rest: An investigation using constrained artificial neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knöpfel, Thomas; Leech, Robert

    2018-01-01

    Local perturbations within complex dynamical systems can trigger cascade-like events that spread across significant portions of the system. Cascades of this type have been observed across a broad range of scales in the brain. Studies of these cascades, known as neuronal avalanches, usually report the statistics of large numbers of avalanches, without probing the characteristic patterns produced by the avalanches themselves. This is partly due to limitations in the extent or spatiotemporal resolution of commonly used neuroimaging techniques. In this study, we overcome these limitations by using optical voltage (genetically encoded voltage indicators) imaging. This allows us to record cortical activity in vivo across an entire cortical hemisphere, at both high spatial (~30um) and temporal (~20ms) resolution in mice that are either in an anesthetized or awake state. We then use artificial neural networks to identify the characteristic patterns created by neuronal avalanches in our data. The avalanches in the anesthetized cortex are most accurately classified by an artificial neural network architecture that simultaneously connects spatial and temporal information. This is in contrast with the awake cortex, in which avalanches are most accurately classified by an architecture that treats spatial and temporal information separately, due to the increased levels of spatiotemporal complexity. This is in keeping with reports of higher levels of spatiotemporal complexity in the awake brain coinciding with features of a dynamical system operating close to criticality. PMID:29795654

  18. Avalanche analysis from multi-electrode ensemble recordings in cat, monkey and human cerebral cortex during wakefulness and sleep.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nima eDehghani

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Self-organized critical states are found in many natural systems, from earthquakes to forest fires, they have also been observed in neural systems, particularly, in neuronal cultures. However, the presence of critical states in the awake brain remains controversial. Here, we compared avalanche analyses performed on different in vivo preparations during wakefulness, slow-wave sleep and REM sleep, using high-density electrode arrays in cat motor cortex (96 electrodes, monkey motor cortex and premotor cortex and human temporal cortex (96 electrodes in epileptic patients. In neuronal avalanches defined from units (up to 160 single units, the size of avalanches never clearly scaled as power-law, but rather scaled exponentially or displayed intermediate scaling. We also analyzed the dynamics of local field potentials (LFPs and in particular LFP negative peaks (nLFPs among the different electrodes (up to 96 sites in temporal cortex or up to 128 sites in adjacent motor and pre-motor cortices. In this case, the avalanches defined from nLFPs displayed power-law scaling in double logarithmic representations, as reported previously in monkey. However, avalanche defined as positive LFP (pLFP peaks, which are less directly related to neuronal firing, also displayed apparent power-law scaling. Closer examination of this scaling using the more reliable cumulative distribution function (CDF and other rigorous statistical measures, did not confirm power-law scaling. The same pattern was seen for cats, monkey and human, as well as for different brain states of wakefulness and sleep. We also tested other alternative distributions. Multiple exponential fitting yielded optimal fits of the avalanche dynamics with bi-exponential distributions. Collectively, these results show no clear evidence for power-law scaling or self-organized critical states in the awake and sleeping brain of mammals, from cat to man.

  19. Group Dynamics and Decision Making: Backcountry Recreationists in Avalanche Terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bright, Leslie Shay

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to describe and determine the prevalence of decision-making characteristics of recreational backcountry groups when making a decision of where to travel and ride in avalanche terrain from the perspective of individuals. Decision-making characteristics encompassed communication, decision-making processes, leadership,…

  20. Forecast communication through the newspaper Part 2: perceptions of uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Andrew J. L.

    2015-04-01

    In the first part of this review, I defined the media filter and how it can operate to frame and blame the forecaster for losses incurred during an environmental disaster. In this second part, I explore the meaning and role of uncertainty when a forecast, and its basis, is communicated through the response and decision-making chain to the newspaper, especially during a rapidly evolving natural disaster which has far-reaching business, political, and societal impacts. Within the media-based communication system, there remains a fundamental disconnect of the definition of uncertainty and the interpretation of the delivered forecast between various stakeholders. The definition and use of uncertainty differs especially between scientific, media, business, and political stakeholders. This is a serious problem for the scientific community when delivering forecasts to the public though the press. As reviewed in Part 1, the media filter can result in a negative frame, which itself is a result of bias, slant, spin, and agenda setting introduced during passage of the forecast and its uncertainty through the media filter. The result is invariably one of anger and fury, which causes loss of credibility and blaming of the forecaster. Generation of a negative frame can be aided by opacity of the decision-making process that the forecast is used to support. The impact of the forecast will be determined during passage through the decision-making chain where the precautionary principle and cost-benefit analysis, for example, will likely be applied. Choice of forecast delivery format, vehicle of communication, syntax of delivery, and lack of follow-up measures can further contribute to causing the forecast and its role to be misrepresented. Follow-up measures to negative frames may include appropriately worded press releases and conferences that target forecast misrepresentation or misinterpretation in an attempt to swing the slant back in favor of the forecaster. Review of

  1. Tuning magnetization avalanches in Mn12-acetate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Bo; McHugh, S.; Ma, Xiang; Sarachik, M. P.; Myasoedov, Y.; Shtrikman, H.; Zeldov, E.; Bagai, R.; Christou, G.

    2009-03-01

    We report the results of a systematic study of magnetic avalanches (abrupt magnetization reversals) in the molecular magnet Mn12-acetate using a micron-sized Hall sensor array. Measurements were taken for: (a) fixed magnetic field (constant barrier against spin reversal); and (b) fixed energy release obtained by adjusting the barrier and δM. A detailed comparison with the theory of magnetic deflagration of Garanin and Chudnovsky [1] will be presented and discussed. [1] D. A. Garanin and E. M. Chudnovsky, Phys. Rev. B 76, 054410 (2007)

  2. Readout of scintillator light with avalanche photodiodes for positron emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ruru; Fremout, A.; Tavernier, S.; Bruyndonckx, P.; Clement, D.; Loude, J.-F.; Morel, C.

    1999-01-01

    The noise properties and other relevant characteristics of avalanche photodiodes have been investigated with the perspective of replacing photomultiplier tubes in positron emission tomography. It is clearly demonstrated that they are a valid alternative to photomultiplier tubes in this application

  3. Characteristics of debris avalanche deposits inferred from source volume estimate and hummock morphology around Mt. Erciyes, central Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayakawa, Yuichi S.; Yoshida, Hidetsugu; Obanawa, Hiroyuki; Naruhashi, Ryutaro; Okumura, Koji; Zaiki, Masumi; Kontani, Ryoichi

    2018-02-01

    Debris avalanches caused by volcano sector collapse often form characteristic depositional landforms such as hummocks. Sedimentological and geomorphological analyses of debris avalanche deposits (DADs) are crucial to clarify the size, mechanisms, and emplacement of debris avalanches. We describe the morphology of hummocks on the northeastern flank of Mt. Erciyes in Kayseri, central Turkey, likely formed in the late Pleistocene. Using a remotely piloted aircraft system (RPAS) and the structure-from-motion and multi-view stereo (SfM-MVS) photogrammetry, we obtained high-definition digital elevation model (DEM) and orthorectified images of the hummocks to investigate their geometric features. We estimated the source volume of the DAD by reconstructing the topography of the volcano edifice using a satellite-based DEM. We examined the topographic cross sections based on the slopes around the scar regarded as remnant topography. Spatial distribution of hummocks is anomalously concentrated at a certain distance from the source, unlike those that follow the distance-size relationship. The high-definition land surface data by RPAS and SfM revealed that many of the hummocks are aligned toward the flow direction of the debris avalanche, suggesting that the extensional regime of the debris avalanche was dominant. However, some displaced hummocks were also found, indicating that the compressional regime of the flow contributed to the formation of hummocks. These indicate that the flow and emplacement of the avalanche were constrained by the topography. The existing caldera wall forced the initial eastward flow to move northward, and the north-side caldera wall forced the flow into the narrow and steepened outlet valley where the sliding debris underwent a compressional regime, and out into the unconfined terrain where the debris was most likely emplaced on an extensional regime. Also, the estimated volume of 12-15 × 108 m3 gives a mean thickness of 60-75 m, which is much

  4. Forecasting the Demand for Information Security Personnel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anatoliy Alexandrovich Malyuk

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available During the formation of information society the problem of determining the demand for IS personnel (DfISP, consisting of IS specialists and IS practitioners, is of particular relevance at present. The goal of the paper is to calculate the demand for IS specialists (DfISS. To achieve it we used the informal heuristic methods and introduced some important indicators for DfISP forecast. As a validation of the conceptual approach proposed we show how to apply it on the regional level of one country on one real-world example. All the reasoning and calculations can be narrowed down to the DfISS forecasting within one corporation or IS professionals of a specific profile.

  5. A high current, high speed pulser using avalanche transistors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosono, Yoneichi; Hasegawa, Ken-ichi

    1985-01-01

    A high current, high speed pulser for the beam pulsing of a linear accelerator is described. It uses seven avalanche transistors in cascade. Design of a trigger circuit to obtain fast rise time is discussed. The characteristics of the pulser are : (a) Rise time = 0.9 ns (FWHM) and (d) Life time asymptotically equals 2000 -- 3000 hr (at 50 Hz). (author)

  6. Kinetic modelling of runaway electron avalanches in tokamak plasmas.

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Nilsson, E.; Decker, J.; Peysson, Y.; Granetz, R.S.; Saint-Laurent, F.; Vlainic, Milos

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 57, č. 9 (2015), č. článku 095006. ISSN 0741-3335 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 633053 - EUROfusion Institutional support: RVO:61389021 Keywords : plasma physics * runaway electrons * knock-on collisions * tokamak * Fokker-Planck * runaway avalanches Subject RIV: BL - Plasma and Gas Discharge Physics OBOR OECD: Fluids and plasma physics (including surface physics) Impact factor: 2.404, year: 2015

  7. Snow avalanche hazard of the Krkonose National Park, Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Blahůt, Jan; Klimeš, Jan; Balek, Jan; Hájek, P.; Červená, L.; Lysák, J.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 13, č. 2 (2017), s. 86-90 ISSN 1744-5647 R&D Projects: GA MV VG20132015115 Institutional support: RVO:67985891 Keywords : snow avalanches * hazard * inventory * hazard mitigation * Krkonoše Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography OBOR OECD: Physical geography Impact factor: 2.174, year: 2016

  8. Forecast Combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermann, Allan G

    2005-01-01

    Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...

  9. Forecast combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan

    2010-01-01

    We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...

  10. Generation efficiency of single-photon current pulses in the Geiger mode of silicon avalanche photodiodes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verkhovtseva, A. V.; Gergel, V. A.

    2009-01-01

    Statistical fluctuations of the avalanche's multiplication efficiency were studied as applied to the single-photon (Geiger) mode of avalanche photodiodes. The distribution function of partial multiplication factors with an anomalously wide (of the order of the average) dispersion was obtained. Expressions for partial feedback factors were derived in terms of the average gain and the corresponding dependences on the diode's overvoltage were calculated. Final expressions for the photon-electric pulse's conversion were derived by averaging corresponding formulas over the coordinate of initiating photoelectron generation using the functions of optical photon absorption in silicon.

  11. A hybrid approach EMD-HW for short-term forecasting of daily stock market time series data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awajan, Ahmad Mohd; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2017-08-01

    Recently, forecasting time series has attracted considerable attention in the field of analyzing financial time series data, specifically within the stock market index. Moreover, stock market forecasting is a challenging area of financial time-series forecasting. In this study, a hybrid methodology between Empirical Mode Decomposition with the Holt-Winter method (EMD-HW) is used to improve forecasting performances in financial time series. The strength of this EMD-HW lies in its ability to forecast non-stationary and non-linear time series without a need to use any transformation method. Moreover, EMD-HW has a relatively high accuracy and offers a new forecasting method in time series. The daily stock market time series data of 11 countries is applied to show the forecasting performance of the proposed EMD-HW. Based on the three forecast accuracy measures, the results indicate that EMD-HW forecasting performance is superior to traditional Holt-Winter forecasting method.

  12. Radiation damage effect on avalanche photodiodes

    CERN Document Server

    Baccaro, S; Cavallari, F; Da Ponte, V; Deiters, K; Denes, P; Diemoz, M; Kirn, Th; Lintern, A L; Longo, E; Montecchi, M; Musienko, Y; Pansart, J P; Renker, D; Reucroft, S; Rosi, G; Rusack, R; Ruuska, D; Stephenson, R; Torbet, M J

    1999-01-01

    Avalanche Photodiodes have been chosen as photon sensors for the electromagnetic calorimeter of the CMS experiment at the LHC. These sensors should operate in the 4T magnetic field of the experiment. Because of the high neutron radiation in the detector extensive studies have been done by the CMS collaboration on the APD neutron radiation damage. The characteristics of these devices after irradiation have been analized, with particular attention to the quantum efficiency and the dark current. The recovery of the radiation induced dark current has been studied carefully at room temperature and at slightly lower and higher temperatures. The temperature dependence of the defects decay-time has been evaluated.

  13. Practical photon number detection with electric field-modulated silicon avalanche photodiodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, O; Yuan, Z L; Shields, A J

    2012-01-24

    Low-noise single-photon detection is a prerequisite for quantum information processing using photonic qubits. In particular, detectors that are able to accurately resolve the number of photons in an incident light pulse will find application in functions such as quantum teleportation and linear optics quantum computing. More generally, such a detector will allow the advantages of quantum light detection to be extended to stronger optical signals, permitting optical measurements limited only by fluctuations in the photon number of the source. Here we demonstrate a practical high-speed device, which allows the signals arising from multiple photon-induced avalanches to be precisely discriminated. We use a type of silicon avalanche photodiode in which the lateral electric field profile is strongly modulated in order to realize a spatially multiplexed detector. Clearly discerned multiphoton signals are obtained by applying sub-nanosecond voltage gates in order to restrict the detector current.

  14. Scintillator high-gain avalanche rushing photoconductor active-matrix flat panel imager: zero-spatial frequency x-ray imaging properties of the solid-state SHARP sensor structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wronski, M; Zhao, W; Tanioka, K; Decrescenzo, G; Rowlands, J A

    2012-11-01

    The authors are investigating the feasibility of a new type of solid-state x-ray imaging sensor with programmable avalanche gain: scintillator high-gain avalanche rushing photoconductor active matrix flat panel imager (SHARP-AMFPI). The purpose of the present work is to investigate the inherent x-ray detection properties of SHARP and demonstrate its wide dynamic range through programmable gain. A distributed resistive layer (DRL) was developed to maintain stable avalanche gain operation in a solid-state HARP. The signal and noise properties of the HARP-DRL for optical photon detection were investigated as a function of avalanche gain both theoretically and experimentally, and the results were compared with HARP tube (with electron beam readout) used in previous investigations of zero spatial frequency performance of SHARP. For this new investigation, a solid-state SHARP x-ray image sensor was formed by direct optical coupling of the HARP-DRL with a structured cesium iodide (CsI) scintillator. The x-ray sensitivity of this sensor was measured as a function of avalanche gain and the results were compared with the sensitivity of HARP-DRL measured optically. The dynamic range of HARP-DRL with variable avalanche gain was investigated for the entire exposure range encountered in radiography∕fluoroscopy (R∕F) applications. The signal from HARP-DRL as a function of electric field showed stable avalanche gain, and the noise associated with the avalanche process agrees well with theory and previous measurements from a HARP tube. This result indicates that when coupled with CsI for x-ray detection, the additional noise associated with avalanche gain in HARP-DRL is negligible. The x-ray sensitivity measurements using the SHARP sensor produced identical avalanche gain dependence on electric field as the optical measurements with HARP-DRL. Adjusting the avalanche multiplication gain in HARP-DRL enabled a very wide dynamic range which encompassed all clinically relevant

  15. Scintillator high-gain avalanche rushing photoconductor active-matrix flat panel imager: Zero-spatial frequency x-ray imaging properties of the solid-state SHARP sensor structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wronski, M.; Zhao, W.; Tanioka, K.; DeCrescenzo, G.; Rowlands, J. A.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The authors are investigating the feasibility of a new type of solid-state x-ray imaging sensor with programmable avalanche gain: scintillator high-gain avalanche rushing photoconductor active matrix flat panel imager (SHARP-AMFPI). The purpose of the present work is to investigate the inherent x-ray detection properties of SHARP and demonstrate its wide dynamic range through programmable gain. Methods: A distributed resistive layer (DRL) was developed to maintain stable avalanche gain operation in a solid-state HARP. The signal and noise properties of the HARP-DRL for optical photon detection were investigated as a function of avalanche gain both theoretically and experimentally, and the results were compared with HARP tube (with electron beam readout) used in previous investigations of zero spatial frequency performance of SHARP. For this new investigation, a solid-state SHARP x-ray image sensor was formed by direct optical coupling of the HARP-DRL with a structured cesium iodide (CsI) scintillator. The x-ray sensitivity of this sensor was measured as a function of avalanche gain and the results were compared with the sensitivity of HARP-DRL measured optically. The dynamic range of HARP-DRL with variable avalanche gain was investigated for the entire exposure range encountered in radiography/fluoroscopy (R/F) applications. Results: The signal from HARP-DRL as a function of electric field showed stable avalanche gain, and the noise associated with the avalanche process agrees well with theory and previous measurements from a HARP tube. This result indicates that when coupled with CsI for x-ray detection, the additional noise associated with avalanche gain in HARP-DRL is negligible. The x-ray sensitivity measurements using the SHARP sensor produced identical avalanche gain dependence on electric field as the optical measurements with HARP-DRL. Adjusting the avalanche multiplication gain in HARP-DRL enabled a very wide dynamic range which encompassed all

  16. Application of fuzzy – Neuro to model weather parameter variability impacts on electrical load based on long-term forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danladi Ali

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Long-term load forecasting provides vital information about future load and it helps the power industries to make decision regarding electrical energy generation and delivery. In this work, fuzzy – neuro model is developed to forecast a year ahead load in relation to weather parameter (temperature and humidity in Mubi, Adamawa State. It is observed that: electrical load increased with increase in temperature and relative humidity does not show notable effect on electrical load. The accuracy of the prediction is obtained at 98.78% with the corresponding mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of 1.22%. This confirms that fuzzy – neuro is a good tool for load forecasting. Keywords: Electrical load, Load forecasting, Fuzzy logic, Back propagation, Neuro-fuzzy, Weather parameter

  17. Coherent Forecasts of Mortality with Compositional Data Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergeron-Boucher, Marie-Pier; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Oeppen, Jim

    2017-01-01

    Data Analysis (CoDa) of the life table distribution of deaths. We adapt existing coherent and non–coherent forecasting models to CoDa and compare their results. Results We apply our coherent method to the female mortality of 15 Western European countries and show that our proposed strategy would have...

  18. FORECASTING OF PASSENGER TRAFFIC UPON IMPLEMENTATION OF HIGH-SPEED RUNNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. B. Kurhan

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Forecasting of passenger traffic flows in the future is an essential and integral part of the complex process of designing of high-speed network (HSN. HSN direction and its parameters are determined by the volume of passenger traffic, the estimated value of which depends on the economic performance of the country, as well as the material status of citizens living in HSN concentration area, transport mobility of population, development of competing modes of transport and so on. The purpose of this work is to analyse the existing methods of passenger traffic forecasting, to evaluate errors of the existing models concerning determination of traffic volumes and to specify the scientific approach to the development of high-speed rail transport in Ukraine. Methodology. The existing forecasting methods are reduced to the following ones: Delphi approach, extrapolation method, factor and correlation analysis, simulation method. The method described in this paper is based on scientific approaches such as analysis – a comprehensive and detailed study of various aspects of the known forecasting methods, comparing of existing methods for establishing differences and similarities, as well as deduction – use of general knowledge to get the new particular one. Thus, the unified indicators determined for the country as a whole, such as gross domestic product, national income, total population and others cannot be used to forecast the traffic flow on specific areas of HSN construction. Therefore, it is necessary to move from the overall forecast to traffic volume forecast on particular direction. Findings. The conclusions are derived from the analysis of different approaches and methods of passenger flow forecasting. It is proposed to create typical techniques of traffic flow forecasting using modern mathematical methods that would allow avoiding unreasonable decisions and shortening project development time. The resulting recommendations will help

  19. Burial duration, depth and air pocket explain avalanche survival patterns in Austria and Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Procter, Emily; Strapazzon, Giacomo; Dal Cappello, Tomas; Zweifel, Benjamin; Würtele, Andreas; Renner, Andreas; Falk, Markus; Brugger, Hermann

    2016-08-01

    To calculate the first Austrian avalanche survival curve and update a Swiss survival curve to explore survival patterns in the Alps. Avalanche accidents occurring between 2005/06 and 2012/13 in Austria and Switzerland were collected. Completely buried victims (i.e. burial of the head and chest) in open terrain with known outcome (survived or not survived) were included in the analysis. Extrication and survival curves were calculated using the Turnbull algorithm, as in previous studies. 633 of the 796 completely buried victims were included (Austria n=333, Switzerland n=300). Overall survival was 56% (Austria 59%; Switzerland 52%; p=0.065). Time to extrication was shorter in Austria for victims buried ≤60min (p15min. The survival curves resembled those previously published and support the idea that underlying survival patterns are reproducible. The results are in accordance with current recommendations for management of avalanche victims and serve as a reminder that expedient companion rescue within a few minutes is critical for survival. An air pocket was shown to be a positive prognostic factor for survival. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Azimuthal spread of the avalanche in proportional chambers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okuno, H.; Fischer, J.; Radeka, V.; Walenta, A.H.

    1978-10-01

    The angular distribution of the avalanche around the anode wire in the gas proportional counter is determined by measuring the distribution of positive ions arriving on cathode strips surrounding the anode wire for each single event. The shape and width of the distribution depend on such factors as the gas gain, the anode diameter, the counting gas and the primary ionization density. Effects of these factors are studied systematically, and their importance for practical counter applications is discussed

  1. Subsampling effects in neuronal avalanche distributions recorded in vivo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Munk Matthias HJ

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many systems in nature are characterized by complex behaviour where large cascades of events, or avalanches, unpredictably alternate with periods of little activity. Snow avalanches are an example. Often the size distribution f(s of a system's avalanches follows a power law, and the branching parameter sigma, the average number of events triggered by a single preceding event, is unity. A power law for f(s, and sigma = 1, are hallmark features of self-organized critical (SOC systems, and both have been found for neuronal activity in vitro. Therefore, and since SOC systems and neuronal activity both show large variability, long-term stability and memory capabilities, SOC has been proposed to govern neuronal dynamics in vivo. Testing this hypothesis is difficult because neuronal activity is spatially or temporally subsampled, while theories of SOC systems assume full sampling. To close this gap, we investigated how subsampling affects f(s and sigma by imposing subsampling on three different SOC models. We then compared f(s and sigma of the subsampled models with those of multielectrode local field potential (LFP activity recorded in three macaque monkeys performing a short term memory task. Results Neither the LFP nor the subsampled SOC models showed a power law for f(s. Both, f(s and sigma, depended sensitively on the subsampling geometry and the dynamics of the model. Only one of the SOC models, the Abelian Sandpile Model, exhibited f(s and sigma similar to those calculated from LFP activity. Conclusion Since subsampling can prevent the observation of the characteristic power law and sigma in SOC systems, misclassifications of critical systems as sub- or supercritical are possible. Nevertheless, the system specific scaling of f(s and sigma under subsampling conditions may prove useful to select physiologically motivated models of brain function. Models that better reproduce f(s and sigma calculated from the physiological

  2. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

  3. An interdisciplinary approach for earthquake modelling and forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, P.; Zhuang, J.; Hattori, K.; Ogata, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake is one of the most serious disasters, which may cause heavy casualties and economic losses. Especially in the past two decades, huge/mega earthquakes have hit many countries. Effective earthquake forecasting (including time, location, and magnitude) becomes extremely important and urgent. To date, various heuristically derived algorithms have been developed for forecasting earthquakes. Generally, they can be classified into two types: catalog-based approaches and non-catalog-based approaches. Thanks to the rapid development of statistical seismology in the past 30 years, now we are able to evaluate the performances of these earthquake forecast approaches quantitatively. Although a certain amount of precursory information is available in both earthquake catalogs and non-catalog observations, the earthquake forecast is still far from satisfactory. In most case, the precursory phenomena were studied individually. An earthquake model that combines self-exciting and mutually exciting elements was developed by Ogata and Utsu from the Hawkes process. The core idea of this combined model is that the status of the event at present is controlled by the event itself (self-exciting) and all the external factors (mutually exciting) in the past. In essence, the conditional intensity function is a time-varying Poisson process with rate λ(t), which is composed of the background rate, the self-exciting term (the information from past seismic events), and the external excitation term (the information from past non-seismic observations). This model shows us a way to integrate the catalog-based forecast and non-catalog-based forecast. Against this background, we are trying to develop a new earthquake forecast model which combines catalog-based and non-catalog-based approaches.

  4. Short-term wind power combined forecasting based on error forecast correction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang, Zhengtang; Liang, Jun; Wang, Chengfu; Dong, Xiaoming; Miao, Xiaofeng

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The correlation relationships of short-term wind power forecast errors are studied. • The correlation analysis method of the multi-step forecast errors is proposed. • A strategy selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. • Several novel combined models based on error forecast correction are proposed. • The combined models have improved the short-term wind power forecasting accuracy. - Abstract: With the increasing contribution of wind power to electric power grids, accurate forecasting of short-term wind power has become particularly valuable for wind farm operators, utility operators and customers. The aim of this study is to investigate the interdependence structure of errors in short-term wind power forecasting that is crucial for building error forecast models with regression learning algorithms to correct predictions and improve final forecasting accuracy. In this paper, several novel short-term wind power combined forecasting models based on error forecast correction are proposed in the one-step ahead, continuous and discontinuous multi-step ahead forecasting modes. First, the correlation relationships of forecast errors of the autoregressive model, the persistence method and the support vector machine model in various forecasting modes have been investigated to determine whether the error forecast models can be established by regression learning algorithms. Second, according to the results of the correlation analysis, the range of input variables is defined and an efficient strategy for selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. Finally, several combined forecasting models are proposed, in which the error forecast models are based on support vector machine/extreme learning machine, and correct the short-term wind power forecast values. The data collected from a wind farm in Hebei Province, China, are selected as a case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed

  5. Ontario demand forecast from January 2004 to December 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This document examined the demand forecast for electricity on the Independent Market Operator (IMO)-controlled grid in Ontario for the period 2004-2013. It serves as an assessment tool to determine whether existing and proposed generation and transmission facilities in the province will be sufficient to meet future electricity needs. Changes in methodology have been made to allow for an hourly peak versus the previously reported 20-minute peak value. Actual data through to the end of October 2002 was used to re-estimate energy demand. Compared to other developed countries, the outlook for the Canadian economy is optimistic. In addition, the economic forecast is better than that which formed the basis of the last ten-year forecast. Energy demand in the median growth scenario is increasing at an annual rate of 1.1 per cent rather than 0.9 per cent for the forecasted period of 2003-2012. The combination of a higher growth rate and a higher starting point results in a 2010 forecast of 168 TWh. It is expected that peak demand will grow faster than in the previous forecast. Summer peak demand averaging an annual growth of 1.3 per cent is forecasted for the period 2003-2012, with winter peak demand averaging a growth of 0.8 per cent. Under normal weather conditions, the electricity system is expected to peak in the summer of 2005 due to the continued demand for cooling load. However, under an extreme weather scenario, the system is already summer peaking. The improved economic outlook and higher starting point resulted in a higher forecast for energy. The electricity system is expected to winter peak during the first years of the forecasted period. The heating load is not expected to experience rapid growth in the next few years. 15 tabs., 14 figs

  6. Peak load demand forecasting using two-level discrete wavelet decomposition and neural network algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunnoon, Pituk; Chalermyanont, Kusumal; Limsakul, Chusak

    2010-02-01

    This paper proposed the discrete transform and neural network algorithms to obtain the monthly peak load demand in mid term load forecasting. The mother wavelet daubechies2 (db2) is employed to decomposed, high pass filter and low pass filter signals from the original signal before using feed forward back propagation neural network to determine the forecasting results. The historical data records in 1997-2007 of Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) is used as reference. In this study, historical information of peak load demand(MW), mean temperature(Tmean), consumer price index (CPI), and industrial index (economic:IDI) are used as feature inputs of the network. The experimental results show that the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is approximately 4.32%. This forecasting results can be used for fuel planning and unit commitment of the power system in the future.

  7. Characteristics of debris avalanche deposits inferred from source volume estimate and hummock morphology around Mt. Erciyes, central Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. S. Hayakawa

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Debris avalanches caused by volcano sector collapse often form characteristic depositional landforms such as hummocks. Sedimentological and geomorphological analyses of debris avalanche deposits (DADs are crucial to clarify the size, mechanisms, and emplacement of debris avalanches. We describe the morphology of hummocks on the northeastern flank of Mt. Erciyes in Kayseri, central Turkey, likely formed in the late Pleistocene. Using a remotely piloted aircraft system (RPAS and the structure-from-motion and multi-view stereo (SfM–MVS photogrammetry, we obtained high-definition digital elevation model (DEM and orthorectified images of the hummocks to investigate their geometric features. We estimated the source volume of the DAD by reconstructing the topography of the volcano edifice using a satellite-based DEM. We examined the topographic cross sections based on the slopes around the scar regarded as remnant topography. Spatial distribution of hummocks is anomalously concentrated at a certain distance from the source, unlike those that follow the distance–size relationship. The high-definition land surface data by RPAS and SfM revealed that many of the hummocks are aligned toward the flow direction of the debris avalanche, suggesting that the extensional regime of the debris avalanche was dominant. However, some displaced hummocks were also found, indicating that the compressional regime of the flow contributed to the formation of hummocks. These indicate that the flow and emplacement of the avalanche were constrained by the topography. The existing caldera wall forced the initial eastward flow to move northward, and the north-side caldera wall forced the flow into the narrow and steepened outlet valley where the sliding debris underwent a compressional regime, and out into the unconfined terrain where the debris was most likely emplaced on an extensional regime. Also, the estimated volume of 12–15 × 108 m3 gives a mean thickness of

  8. Numerical modeling of debris avalanches at Nevado de Toluca (Mexico): implications for hazard evaluation and mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grieco, F.; Capra, L.; Groppelli, G.; Norini, G.

    2007-05-01

    The present study concerns the numerical modeling of debris avalanches on the Nevado de Toluca Volcano (Mexico) using TITAN2D simulation software, and its application to create hazard maps. Nevado de Toluca is an andesitic to dacitic stratovolcano of Late Pliocene-Holocene age, located in central México near to the cities of Toluca and México City; its past activity has endangered an area with more than 25 million inhabitants today. The present work is based upon the data collected during extensive field work finalized to the realization of the geological map of Nevado de Toluca at 1:25,000 scale. The activity of the volcano has developed from 2.6 Ma until 10.5 ka with both effusive and explosive events; the Nevado de Toluca has presented long phases of inactivity characterized by erosion and emplacement of debris flow and debris avalanche deposits on its flanks. The largest epiclastic events in the history of the volcano are wide debris flows and debris avalanches, occurred between 1 Ma and 50 ka, during a prolonged hiatus in eruptive activity. Other minor events happened mainly during the most recent volcanic activity (less than 50 ka), characterized by magmatic and tectonic-induced instability of the summit dome complex. According to the most recent tectonic analysis, the active transtensive kinematics of the E-W Tenango Fault System had a strong influence on the preferential directions of the last three documented lateral collapses, which generated the Arroyo Grande and Zaguàn debris avalanche deposits towards E and Nopal debris avalanche deposit towards W. The analysis of the data collected during the field work permitted to create a detailed GIS database of the spatial and temporal distribution of debris avalanche deposits on the volcano. Flow models, that have been performed with the software TITAN2D, developed by GMFG at Buffalo, were entirely based upon the information stored in the geological database. The modeling software is built upon equations

  9. A Study on the Determination of the World Crude Oil Price and Methods for Its Forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, J.K. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    2001-11-01

    religions with only God are continuously fighting among themselves to implant their religious principles over the world. This report attempted to investigate environmental factors affecting the determination of the world crude oil price. First of all, this report reviewed the trend of the determination of the world crude oil and its formula that informed importing countries. Secondly, environmental factors to decide the world crude oil are investigated by oil producing countries, oil consuming countries, and the US. In investigating environmental factors, the crude oil producing countries have a positive relationship between increasing demand of oil and the trend of crude oil prices with analysis of covariance({delta}) and correlation({sigma}) in 1971 to 1999. But there is no constant relationship between decreasing oil production and increasing oil prices with correlation. The trend of oil stocks in OECD and the trend of oil prices demonstrated the same direction in analysis of {delta} and {sigma} so that their relationships are significant. In addition, the relationship between SPR of the US and the trend of crude oil prices showed a negative relationship so that the relation has no meaning. It seems a political power game. In order to create the forecasting model of the world crude oil price, this report firstly reviewed the existing forecasting models such as Pindyck and a simulation. The reviewing results showed that Pindyck model with optimization did not consider the concept of 'back stop technology' and the simulation model did not include the concept of non-market such as political factors and oil producing countries' disciplined adherence. Finally, therefore, this report tried to include market mechanism and non-market factors mentioned above to forecast the world crude oil price using KEEIOF model. But this report did not show precise empirical results from KEEIOF model due to the lack of appropriate data and time constraint. KEEIOF model accounts

  10. Setting best practice criteria for self-differencing avalanche photodiodes in quantum key distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehler-Sidki, Alexander; Dynes, James F.; Lucamarini, Marco; Roberts, George L.; Sharpe, Andrew W.; Savory, Seb J.; Yuan, Zhiliang; Shields, Andrew J.

    2017-10-01

    In recent years, the security of avalanche photodiodes as single photon detectors for quantum key distribution has been subjected to much scrutiny. The most prominent example of this surrounds the vulnerability of such devices to blinding under strong illumination. We focus on self-differencing avalanche photodiodes, single photon detectors that have demonstrated count rates exceeding 1 GCounts/s resulting in secure key rates over 1 MBit/s. These detectors use a passive electronic circuit to cancel any periodic signals thereby enhancing detection sensitivity. However this intrinsic feature can be exploited by adversaries to gain control of the devices using illumination of a moderate intensity. Through careful experimental examinations, we define here a set of criteria for these detectors to avoid such attacks.

  11. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puechl, K.H.

    1975-01-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

  12. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puechl, K H

    1975-12-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis.

  13. Forecasting generation of urban solid waste in developing countries--a case study in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buenrostro, O; Bocco, G; Vence, J

    2001-01-01

    Based on a study of the composition of urban solid waste (USW) and of socioeconomic variables in Morelia, Mexico, generation rates were estimated. In addition, the generation of residential solid waste (RSW) and nonresidential solid waste (NRSW) was forecasted by means of a multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. For residential sources, the independent variables analyzed were monthly wages, persons per dwelling, age, and educational level of the heads of the household. For nonresidential sources, variables analyzed were number of employees, area of facilities, number of working days, and working hours per day. The forecasted values for residential waste were similar to those observed. This approach may be applied to areas in which available data are scarce, and in which there is an urgent need for the planning of adequate management of USW.

  14. Forecasting Social Unrest Using Activity Cascades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cadena, Jose; Korkmaz, Gizem; Kuhlman, Chris J; Marathe, Achla; Ramakrishnan, Naren; Vullikanti, Anil

    2015-01-01

    Social unrest is endemic in many societies, and recent news has drawn attention to happenings in Latin America, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe. Civilian populations mobilize, sometimes spontaneously and sometimes in an organized manner, to raise awareness of key issues or to demand changes in governing or other organizational structures. It is of key interest to social scientists and policy makers to forecast civil unrest using indicators observed on media such as Twitter, news, and blogs. We present an event forecasting model using a notion of activity cascades in Twitter (proposed by Gonzalez-Bailon et al., 2011) to predict the occurrence of protests in three countries of Latin America: Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela. The basic assumption is that the emergence of a suitably detected activity cascade is a precursor or a surrogate to a real protest event that will happen "on the ground." Our model supports the theoretical characterization of large cascades using spectral properties and uses properties of detected cascades to forecast events. Experimental results on many datasets, including the recent June 2013 protests in Brazil, demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

  15. Forecasting Social Unrest Using Activity Cascades.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Cadena

    Full Text Available Social unrest is endemic in many societies, and recent news has drawn attention to happenings in Latin America, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe. Civilian populations mobilize, sometimes spontaneously and sometimes in an organized manner, to raise awareness of key issues or to demand changes in governing or other organizational structures. It is of key interest to social scientists and policy makers to forecast civil unrest using indicators observed on media such as Twitter, news, and blogs. We present an event forecasting model using a notion of activity cascades in Twitter (proposed by Gonzalez-Bailon et al., 2011 to predict the occurrence of protests in three countries of Latin America: Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela. The basic assumption is that the emergence of a suitably detected activity cascade is a precursor or a surrogate to a real protest event that will happen "on the ground." Our model supports the theoretical characterization of large cascades using spectral properties and uses properties of detected cascades to forecast events. Experimental results on many datasets, including the recent June 2013 protests in Brazil, demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

  16. Forecast of Antarctic Sea Ice and Meteorological Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barreira, S.; Orquera, F.

    2017-12-01

    Since 2001, we have been forecasting the climatic fields of the Antarctic sea ice (SI) and surface air temperature, surface pressure and precipitation anomalies for the Southern Hemisphere at the Meteorological Department of the Argentine Naval Hydrographic Service with different techniques that have evolved with the years. Forecast is based on the results of Principal Components Analysis applied to SI series (S-Mode) that gives patterns of temporal series with validity areas (these series are important to determine which areas in Antarctica will have positive or negative SI anomalies based on what happen in the atmosphere) and, on the other hand, to SI fields (T-Mode) that give us the form of the SI fields anomalies based on a classification of 16 patterns. Each T-Mode pattern has unique atmospheric fields associated to them. Therefore, it is possible to forecast whichever atmosphere variable we decide for the Southern Hemisphere. When the forecast is obtained, each pattern has a probability of occurrence and sometimes it is necessary to compose more than one of them to obtain the final result. S-Mode and T-Mode are monthly updated with new data, for that reason the forecasts improved with the increase of cases since 2001. We used the Monthly Polar Gridded Sea Ice Concentrations database derived from satellite information generated by NASA Team algorithm provided monthly by the National Snow and Ice Data Center of USA that begins in November 1978. Recently, we have been experimenting with multilayer Perceptron (neuronal network) with supervised learning and a back-propagation algorithm to improve the forecast. The Perceptron is the most common Artificial Neural Network topology dedicated to image pattern recognition. It was implemented through the use of temperature and pressure anomalies field images that were associated with a the different sea ice anomaly patterns. The variables analyzed included only composites of surface air temperature and pressure anomalies

  17. Avalanche fluctuations within the multigap resistive plate chamber

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cerron Zeballos, E.; Crotty, I.; Lamas Valverde, J.; Veenhof, R.J.; Williams, M.C.S.; Zichichi, A.

    1996-01-01

    The multigap resistive plate chamber (MRPC) was originally designed to have improved time resolution (compared to the wide gap RPC), but also to keep the good high rate behaviour and ease of construction associated with the wide gap RPC. However in addition we observed a very long efficiency plateau, even at high rates. Here we consider fluctuations in avalanche growth, and show that the inherent ''averaging'' of these fluctuations can account for the enhanced performance of the multigap RPC. (orig.)

  18. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyin Ye

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

  19. Low flows: mechanisms, forecasts and climate change impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Demirel, M.C.

    2014-01-01

    A research on low flows may seem controversial for a “wet” country protected by dykes and barriers. However, low flows in dry summers such as in 1976, 1985 and 2003 indicate that it may happen also in the Rhine basin. Improved medium-range and seasonal low fow forecasts are important as there is an

  20. Propagation of avalanches in Mn12-acetate: magnetic deflagration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Yoko; Sarachik, M P; Chudnovsky, E M; McHugh, S; Gonzalez-Rubio, R; Avraham, Nurit; Myasoedov, Y; Zeldov, E; Shtrikman, H; Chakov, N E; Christou, G

    2005-09-30

    Local time-resolved measurements of fast reversal of the magnetization of single crystals of Mn12-acetate indicate that the magnetization avalanche spreads as a narrow interface that propagates through the crystal at a constant velocity that is roughly 2 orders of magnitude smaller than the speed of sound. We argue that this phenomenon is closely analogous to the propagation of a flame front (deflagration) through a flammable chemical substance.

  1. Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: the French Alps over the 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castebrunet, H.; Eckert, N.; Giraud, G.; Durand, Y.; Morin, S.

    2014-09-01

    Projecting changes in snow cover due to climate warming is important for many societal issues, including the adaptation of avalanche risk mitigation strategies. Efficient modelling of future snow cover requires high resolution to properly resolve the topography. Here, we introduce results obtained through statistical downscaling techniques allowing simulations of future snowpack conditions including mechanical stability estimates for the mid and late 21st century in the French Alps under three climate change scenarios. Refined statistical descriptions of snowpack characteristics are provided in comparison to a 1960-1990 reference period, including latitudinal, altitudinal and seasonal gradients. These results are then used to feed a statistical model relating avalanche activity to snow and meteorological conditions, so as to produce the first projection on annual/seasonal timescales of future natural avalanche activity based on past observations. The resulting statistical indicators are fundamental for the mountain economy in terms of anticipation of changes. Whereas precipitation is expected to remain quite stationary, temperature increase interacting with topography will constrain the evolution of snow-related variables on all considered spatio-temporal scales and will, in particular, lead to a reduction of the dry snowpack and an increase of the wet snowpack. Overall, compared to the reference period, changes are strong for the end of the 21st century, but already significant for the mid century. Changes in winter are less important than in spring, but wet-snow conditions are projected to appear at high elevations earlier in the season. At the same altitude, the southern French Alps will not be significantly more affected than the northern French Alps, which means that the snowpack will be preserved for longer in the southern massifs which are higher on average. Regarding avalanche activity, a general decrease in mean (20-30%) and interannual variability is

  2. Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find...

  3. Effects of the intrinsic layer width on the band-to-band tunneling current in p-i-n GaN-based avalanche photodiodes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Ling; Bao, Xichang; Zhang, Wenjing; Li, Chao; Yuan, Yonggang; Xu, Jintong; Zhang, Yan; Li, Xiangyang

    2009-01-01

    Dark current is critical for GaN-based avalanche photodiodes because it significantly increases the noise current and limits the multiplication factor. It has been found that the band-to-band tunneling current is the dominant origin of the dark current for avalanche photodiodes at the onset of breakdown voltage. Experimentally, for GaN-based avalanche photodiodes with a thinner intrinsic layer, the dark current increases nearly exponentially with the applied voltage even at a lower bias voltage. In this paper, the intrinsic layer (i-layer) width of GaN-based avalanche photodiodes has been varied to study its effect on the band-to-band tunneling current. A widely used equation was used to calculate the band-to-band tunneling current of avalanche photodiodes with different i-layer widths (i-layer 0.1 µm, 0.2 µm and 0.4 µm). At −40 V, the band-to-band tunneling current significantly reduces by a magnitude of 10 −15 A with an increase in the i-layer width from 0.1 µm to 0.2 µm, and a magnitude of 10 −29 A with an increase in the i-layer width from 0.2 µm to 0.4 µm. Then, GaN-based avalanche photodiodes (i-layer 0.1 µm, 0.2 µm and 0.4 µm) with different-sized mesa were fabricated. Also, the measurement of dark current of all three different structures was performed, and their multiplication factors were given

  4. Comparative study of four time series methods in forecasting typhoid fever incidence in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xingyu; Liu, Yuanyuan; Yang, Min; Zhang, Tao; Young, Alistair A; Li, Xiaosong

    2013-01-01

    Accurate incidence forecasting of infectious disease is critical for early prevention and for better government strategic planning. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of different forecasting methods based on the monthly incidence of typhoid fever. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and three different models inspired by neural networks, namely, back propagation neural networks (BPNN), radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and Elman recurrent neural networks (ERNN) were compared. The differences as well as the advantages and disadvantages, among the SARIMA model and the neural networks were summarized and discussed. The data obtained for 2005 to 2009 and for 2010 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). The results showed that RBFNN obtained the smallest MAE, MAPE and MSE in both the modeling and forecasting processes. The performances of the four models ranked in descending order were: RBFNN, ERNN, BPNN and the SARIMA model.

  5. Comparative study of four time series methods in forecasting typhoid fever incidence in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xingyu Zhang

    Full Text Available Accurate incidence forecasting of infectious disease is critical for early prevention and for better government strategic planning. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of different forecasting methods based on the monthly incidence of typhoid fever. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA model and three different models inspired by neural networks, namely, back propagation neural networks (BPNN, radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN, and Elman recurrent neural networks (ERNN were compared. The differences as well as the advantages and disadvantages, among the SARIMA model and the neural networks were summarized and discussed. The data obtained for 2005 to 2009 and for 2010 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE, and mean square error (MSE. The results showed that RBFNN obtained the smallest MAE, MAPE and MSE in both the modeling and forecasting processes. The performances of the four models ranked in descending order were: RBFNN, ERNN, BPNN and the SARIMA model.

  6. A new CMOS SiGeC avalanche photo-diode pixel for IR sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augusto, Carlos; Forester, Lynn; Diniz, Pedro C.

    2009-05-01

    Near-infra-red sensing with silicon is limited by the bandgap of silicon, corresponding to a maximum wavelength of absorption of 1.1 μm. A new type of CMOS sensor is presented, which uses a SiGeC epitaxial film in conjunction with novel device architecture to extend absorption into the infra-red. The SiGeC film composition and thickness determine the spectrum of absorption; in particular for SiGeC superlattices, the layer ordering to create pseudo direct bandgaps is the critical parameter. In this new device architecture, the p-type SiGeC film is grown on an active region surrounded by STI, linked to the S/D region of an adjacent NMOS, under the STI by a floating N-Well. On a n-type active, a P-I-N device is formed, and on a p-type active, a P-I-P device is formed, each sensing different regions of the spectrum. The SiGeC films can be biased for avalanche operation, as the required vertical electric field is confined to the region near the heterojunction interface, thereby not affecting the gate oxide of the adjacent NMOS. With suitable heterojunction and doping profiles, the avalanche region can also be bandgap engineered, allowing for avalanche breakdown voltages that are compatible with CMOS devices.

  7. Lifetime of Bubble Rafts: Cooperativity and Avalanches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritacco, Hernán; Kiefer, Flavien; Langevin, Dominique

    2007-06-01

    We have studied the collapse of pseudo-bi-dimensional foams. These foams are made of uniformly sized soap bubbles packed in an hexagonal lattice sitting at the top of a liquid surface. The collapse process follows the sequence: (1) rupture of a first bubble, driven by thermal fluctuations and (2) a cascade of bursting bubbles. We present a simple numerical model which captures the main characteristics of the dynamics of foam collapse. We show that in a certain range of viscosities of the foaming solutions, the size distribution of the avalanches follows power laws as in self-organized criticality processes.

  8. Short-term solar irradiation forecasting based on Dynamic Harmonic Regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trapero, Juan R.; Kourentzes, Nikolaos; Martin, A.

    2015-01-01

    Solar power generation is a crucial research area for countries that have high dependency on fossil energy sources and is gaining prominence with the current shift to renewable sources of energy. In order to integrate the electricity generated by solar energy into the grid, solar irradiation must be reasonably well forecasted, where deviations of the forecasted value from the actual measured value involve significant costs. The present paper proposes a univariate Dynamic Harmonic Regression model set up in a State Space framework for short-term (1–24 h) solar irradiation forecasting. Time series hourly aggregated as the Global Horizontal Irradiation and the Direct Normal Irradiation will be used to illustrate the proposed approach. This method provides a fast automatic identification and estimation procedure based on the frequency domain. Furthermore, the recursive algorithms applied offer adaptive predictions. The good forecasting performance is illustrated with solar irradiance measurements collected from ground-based weather stations located in Spain. The results show that the Dynamic Harmonic Regression achieves the lowest relative Root Mean Squared Error; about 30% and 47% for the Global and Direct irradiation components, respectively, for a forecast horizon of 24 h ahead. - Highlights: • Solar irradiation forecasts at short-term are required to operate solar power plants. • This paper assesses the Dynamic Harmonic Regression to forecast solar irradiation. • Models are evaluated using hourly GHI and DNI data collected in Spain. • The results show that forecasting accuracy is improved by using the model proposed

  9. Forecasting freight flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...... constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.......Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...

  10. State-space forecasting of Schistosoma haematobium time-series in Niono, Mali.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, Daniel C; Findley, Sally E; Doumbia, Seydou

    2008-08-13

    Much of the developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, exhibits high levels of morbidity and mortality associated with infectious diseases. The incidence of Schistosoma sp.-which are neglected tropical diseases exposing and infecting more than 500 and 200 million individuals in 77 countries, respectively-is rising because of 1) numerous irrigation and hydro-electric projects, 2) steady shifts from nomadic to sedentary existence, and 3) ineffective control programs. Notwithstanding the colossal scope of these parasitic infections, less than 0.5% of Schistosoma sp. investigations have attempted to predict their spatial and or temporal distributions. Undoubtedly, public health programs in developing countries could benefit from parsimonious forecasting and early warning systems to enhance management of these parasitic diseases. In this longitudinal retrospective (01/1996-06/2004) investigation, the Schistosoma haematobium time-series for the district of Niono, Mali, was fitted with general-purpose exponential smoothing methods to generate contemporaneous on-line forecasts. These methods, which are encapsulated within a state-space framework, accommodate seasonal and inter-annual time-series fluctuations. Mean absolute percentage error values were circa 25% for 1- to 5-month horizon forecasts. The exponential smoothing state-space framework employed herein produced reasonably accurate forecasts for this time-series, which reflects the incidence of S. haematobium-induced terminal hematuria. It obliquely captured prior non-linear interactions between disease dynamics and exogenous covariates (e.g., climate, irrigation, and public health interventions), thus obviating the need for more complex forecasting methods in the district of Niono, Mali. Therefore, this framework could assist with managing and assessing S. haematobium transmission and intervention impact, respectively, in this district and potentially elsewhere in the Sahel.

  11. Use of medium-range numerical weather prediction model output to produce forecasts of streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, M.P.; Hay, L.E.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines an archive containing over 40 years of 8-day atmospheric forecasts over the contiguous United States from the NCEP reanalysis project to assess the possibilities for using medium-range numerical weather prediction model output for predictions of streamflow. This analysis shows the biases in the NCEP forecasts to be quite extreme. In many regions, systematic precipitation biases exceed 100% of the mean, with temperature biases exceeding 3??C. In some locations, biases are even higher. The accuracy of NCEP precipitation and 2-m maximum temperature forecasts is computed by interpolating the NCEP model output for each forecast day to the location of each station in the NWS cooperative network and computing the correlation with station observations. Results show that the accuracy of the NCEP forecasts is rather low in many areas of the country. Most apparent is the generally low skill in precipitation forecasts (particularly in July) and low skill in temperature forecasts in the western United States, the eastern seaboard, and the southern tier of states. These results outline a clear need for additional processing of the NCEP Medium-Range Forecast Model (MRF) output before it is used for hydrologic predictions. Techniques of model output statistics (MOS) are used in this paper to downscale the NCEP forecasts to station locations. Forecasted atmospheric variables (e.g., total column precipitable water, 2-m air temperature) are used as predictors in a forward screening multiple linear regression model to improve forecasts of precipitation and temperature for stations in the National Weather Service cooperative network. This procedure effectively removes all systematic biases in the raw NCEP precipitation and temperature forecasts. MOS guidance also results in substantial improvements in the accuracy of maximum and minimum temperature forecasts throughout the country. For precipitation, forecast improvements were less impressive. MOS guidance increases

  12. Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wadud, Zia; Dey, Himadri S.; Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor; Khan, Shahidul I.

    2011-01-01

    Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity - around 1.5 - for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country. - Highlights: → Natural gas demand is modeled using dynamic econometric methods, first of its kind in Bangladesh. → Income elasticity for aggregate natural gas demand in Bangladesh is large-around 1.5. → Demand is price insensitive, indicating too low prices and/or presence of large suppressed demand. → Demand forecasts reveal large divergence from previous estimates, which is important for planning. → Attempts to model demand for end-use sectors were successful only for the industrial sector.

  13. Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wadud, Zia, E-mail: ziawadud@yahoo.com [Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Bangladesh); Dey, Himadri S. [University of Notre Dame (United States); Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor; Khan, Shahidul I. [Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Bangladesh)

    2011-11-15

    Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity - around 1.5 - for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country. - Highlights: > Natural gas demand is modeled using dynamic econometric methods, first of its kind in Bangladesh. > Income elasticity for aggregate natural gas demand in Bangladesh is large-around 1.5. > Demand is price insensitive, indicating too low prices and/or presence of large suppressed demand. > Demand forecasts reveal large divergence from previous estimates, which is important for planning. > Attempts to model demand for end-use sectors were successful only for the industrial sector.

  14. Predictive Uncertainty Estimation in Water Demand Forecasting Using the Model Conditional Processor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amos O. Anele

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In a previous paper, a number of potential models for short-term water demand (STWD prediction have been analysed to find the ones with the best fit. The results obtained in Anele et al. (2017 showed that hybrid models may be considered as the accurate and appropriate forecasting models for STWD prediction. However, such best single valued forecast does not guarantee reliable and robust decisions, which can be properly obtained via model uncertainty processors (MUPs. MUPs provide an estimate of the full predictive densities and not only the single valued expected prediction. Amongst other MUPs, the purpose of this paper is to use the multi-variate version of the model conditional processor (MCP, proposed by Todini (2008, to demonstrate how the estimation of the predictive probability conditional to a number of relatively good predictive models may improve our knowledge, thus reducing the predictive uncertainty (PU when forecasting into the unknown future. Through the MCP approach, the probability distribution of the future water demand can be assessed depending on the forecast provided by one or more deterministic forecasting models. Based on an average weekly data of 168 h, the probability density of the future demand is built conditional on three models’ predictions, namely the autoregressive-moving average (ARMA, feed-forward back propagation neural network (FFBP-NN and hybrid model (i.e., combined forecast from ARMA and FFBP-NN. The results obtained show that MCP may be effectively used for real-time STWD prediction since it brings out the PU connected to its forecast, and such information could help water utilities estimate the risk connected to a decision.

  15. Robust forecast comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Jin, Sainan; Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman

    2015-01-01

    Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. This paper addresses this issue by using a novel criterion for forecast evaluation which is based on the entire distribution of forecast errors. We introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority, and we establish a ...

  16. Avalanche breakdown and the probabilistic nature of laser failure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mitropol' skii, M M; Khote' enkov, V A; Khodakov, G S

    1976-01-01

    A study was made of the probabilistic aspects of the development of an electron avalanche arising under the influence of a powerful laser beam in a solid transparent dielectric. The distribution function of time and relative fluctuation of the number of electrons was found. The width of the probability function of failure was determined as a function of intensity. The relative dispersion of time of beginning of breakdown can also be determined. Its numerical value under identical conditions is +-7%. These results are similar to the experimentally defined dispersion from an earlier work. The data produced also show that, in spite of the clearly probabilistic nature of the development of an avalanche, the slight width of the distribution causes the use of the threshold criterion for rupture of transparent dielectrics by laser radiation to be practically correct. The dependence of I/sub 0/ on pulse length agrees with experimental data, whereas I/sub 0/ (V) is significantly weaker than the actually observed value. This disagreement can be explained by various imperfections in the structure of the crystals and by their contamination, the frequency of appearance of which, in the focal volume, is proportional to its size and which were not considered in the theoretical statements developed here.

  17. Geiger-Mode Avalanche Photodiode Arrays Integrated to All-Digital CMOS Circuits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aull, Brian

    2016-04-08

    This article reviews MIT Lincoln Laboratory's work over the past 20 years to develop photon-sensitive image sensors based on arrays of silicon Geiger-mode avalanche photodiodes. Integration of these detectors to all-digital CMOS readout circuits enable exquisitely sensitive solid-state imagers for lidar, wavefront sensing, and passive imaging.

  18. Neural avalanches at the critical point between replay and non-replay of spatiotemporal patterns.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Scarpetta

    Full Text Available We model spontaneous cortical activity with a network of coupled spiking units, in which multiple spatio-temporal patterns are stored as dynamical attractors. We introduce an order parameter, which measures the overlap (similarity between the activity of the network and the stored patterns. We find that, depending on the excitability of the network, different working regimes are possible. For high excitability, the dynamical attractors are stable, and a collective activity that replays one of the stored patterns emerges spontaneously, while for low excitability, no replay is induced. Between these two regimes, there is a critical region in which the dynamical attractors are unstable, and intermittent short replays are induced by noise. At the critical spiking threshold, the order parameter goes from zero to one, and its fluctuations are maximized, as expected for a phase transition (and as observed in recent experimental results in the brain. Notably, in this critical region, the avalanche size and duration distributions follow power laws. Critical exponents are consistent with a scaling relationship observed recently in neural avalanches measurements. In conclusion, our simple model suggests that avalanche power laws in cortical spontaneous activity may be the effect of a network at the critical point between the replay and non-replay of spatio-temporal patterns.

  19. Appraisal of artificial neural network for forecasting of economic parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kordanuli, Bojana; Barjaktarović, Lidija; Jeremić, Ljiljana; Alizamir, Meysam

    2017-01-01

    The main aim of this research is to develop and apply artificial neural network (ANN) with extreme learning machine (ELM) and back propagation (BP) to forecast gross domestic product (GDP) and Hirschman-Herfindahl Index (HHI). GDP could be developed based on combination of different factors. In this investigation GDP forecasting based on the agriculture and industry added value in gross domestic product (GDP) was analysed separately. Other inputs are final consumption expenditure of general government, gross fixed capital formation (investments) and fertility rate. The relation between product market competition and corporate investment is contentious. On one hand, the relation can be positive, but on the other hand, the relation can be negative. Several methods have been proposed to monitor market power for the purpose of developing procedures to mitigate or eliminate the effects. The most widely used methods are based on indices such as the Hirschman-Herfindahl Index (HHI). The reliability of the ANN models were accessed based on simulation results and using several statistical indicators. Based upon simulation results, it was presented that ELM shows better performances than BP learning algorithm in applications of GDP and HHI forecasting.

  20. A neutral network based technique for short-term forecasting of anomalous load periods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sforna, M [ENEL, s.p.a, Italian Power Company (Italy); Lamedica, R; Prudenzi, A [Rome Univ. ` La Sapienza` , Rome (Italy); Caciotta, M; Orsolini Cencelli, V [Rome Univ. III, Rome (Italy)

    1995-01-01

    The paper illustrates a part of the research activity conducted by authors in the field of electric Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) architectures. Previous experiences with basic ANN architectures have shown that, even though these architecture provide results comparable with those obtained by human operators for most normal days, they evidence some accuracy deficiencies when applied to `anomalous` load conditions occurring during holidays and long weekends. For these periods a specific procedure based upon a combined (unsupervised/supervised) approach has been proposed. The unsupervised stage provides a preventive classification of the historical load data by means of a Kohonen`s Self Organizing Map (SOM). The supervised stage, performing the proper forecasting activity, is obtained by using a multi-layer percept ron with a back propagation learning algorithm similar to the ones above mentioned. The unconventional use of information deriving from the classification stage permits the proposed procedure to obtain a relevant enhancement of the forecast accuracy for anomalous load situations.

  1. Application of BP Neural Network Algorithm in Traditional Hydrological Model for Flood Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianjin Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Flooding contributes to tremendous hazards every year; more accurate forecasting may significantly mitigate the damages and loss caused by flood disasters. Current hydrological models are either purely knowledge-based or data-driven. A combination of data-driven method (artificial neural networks in this paper and knowledge-based method (traditional hydrological model may booster simulation accuracy. In this study, we proposed a new back-propagation (BP neural network algorithm and applied it in the semi-distributed Xinanjiang (XAJ model. The improved hydrological model is capable of updating the flow forecasting error without losing the leading time. The proposed method was tested in a real case study for both single period corrections and real-time corrections. The results reveal that the proposed method could significantly increase the accuracy of flood forecasting and indicate that the global correction effect is superior to the second-order autoregressive correction method in real-time correction.

  2. Science implementation of Forecast Mekong for food and environmental security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turnipseed, D. Phil

    2012-01-01

    Forecast Mekong is a significant international thrust under the Delta Research and Global Observation Network (DRAGON) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and was launched in 2009 by the U.S. Department of State and the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam under U.S. Department of State Secretary Hillary R. Clinton's Lower Mekong Initiative to enhance U.S. engagement with countries of the Lower Mekong River Basin in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. Since 2009, the USGS has worked closely with the U.S. Department of State; personnel from Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam; nongovernmental organizations; and academia to collect and use research and data from the Lower Mekong River Basin to provide hands-on results that will help decisionmakers in future planning and design for restoration, conservation, and management efforts in the Lower Mekong River Basin. In 2012 Forecast Mekong is highlighting the increasing cooperation between the United States and Lower Mekong River Basin countries in the areas of food and environmental security. Under the DRAGON, Forecast Mekong continues work in interactive data integration, modeling, and visualization system by initiating three-dimensional bathymetry and river flow data along with a pilot study of fish distribution, population, and migratory patterns in the Lower Mekong River Basin. When fully developed by the USGS, in partnership with local governments and universities throughout the Mekong River region, Forecast Mekong will provide valuable planning tools to visualize the consequences of climate change and river management.

  3. Intrinsic Bistability and Critical Slowing in Tm3+/Yb3+ Codoped Laser Crystal with the Photon Avalanche Mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Li; Li-Xue, Chen; Xin-Lu, Zhang

    2009-01-01

    We present theoretically a novel intrinsic optical bistability (IOB) in the Tm 3+ /Yb 3+ codoped system with a photon avalanche mechanism. Numerical simulations based on the rate equation model demonstrate distinct IOB hysteresis and critical slowing dynamics around the avalanche thresholds. Such an IOB characteristic in Tm 3+ /Yb 3+ codoped crystal has potential applications in solid-state bistable optical displays and luminescence switchers in visible-infrared spectra. (fundamental areas of phenomenology (including applications))

  4. A microstrip gas avalanche chamber with two-dimensional readout

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angelini, F.; Bellazzini, R.; Brez, A.; Massai, M.M.; Spandre, G.; Torquati, M.R.

    1989-01-01

    A microstrip gas avalanche chamber with a 200 μm anode pitch has been built and successfully tested in our laboratory. A gas gain of 10 4 and an energy resolution of 18% (FWHM) at 6 keV have been measured using a gas mixture of argon-CO 2 at atmospheric pressure. A preliminary measurement of the positional sensitivity indicates that a spatial resolution of 50 μm can be obtained. (orig.)

  5. Forecasting the international diffusion of innovations: An adaptive estimation approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Y.M. van Everdingen (Yvonne); W.B. Aghina (Wouter)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractWe introduce an international, adaptive diffusion model that can be used to forecast the cross-national diffusion of an innovation at early stages of the diffusion curve. We model the mutual influence between the diffusion processes in the different social systems (countries) by mixing

  6. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

  7. Thermodynamics of the Heat-Flux Avalanches at the First-Order Magnetic Transition in Magnetocaloric Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piazzi, Marco; Bennati, Cecilia; Basso, Vittorio

    2017-10-01

    We investigate the kinetics of first-order magnetic phase transitions by measuring and modeling the heat-flux avalanches corresponding to the irreversible motion of the phase-boundary interface separating the coexisting low- and high-temperature stable magnetic phases. By means of out-of-equilibrium thermodynamics, we encompass the damping mechanisms of the boundary motion in a phenomenological parameter αs. By analyzing the time behavior of the heat-flux signals measured on La (Fe -Mn -Si )13-H magnetocaloric compounds through Peltier calorimetry temperature scans performed at low rates, we relate the linear rise of the individual avalanches to the intrinsic-damping parameter αs.

  8. Daily reservoir inflow forecasting combining QPF into ANNs model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jun; Cheng, Chun-Tian; Liao, Sheng-Li; Wu, Xin-Yu; Shen, Jian-Jian

    2009-01-01

    Daily reservoir inflow predictions with lead-times of several days are essential to the operational planning and scheduling of hydroelectric power system. The demand for quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) is increasing in hydropower operation with the dramatic advances in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. This paper presents a simple and an effective algorithm for daily reservoir inflow predictions which solicits the observed precipitation, forecasted precipitation from QPF as predictors and discharges in following 1 to 6 days as predicted targets for multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (MLP-ANNs) modeling. An improved error back-propagation algorithm with self-adaptive learning rate and self-adaptive momentum coefficient is used to make the supervised training procedure more efficient in both time saving and search optimization. Several commonly used error measures are employed to evaluate the performance of the proposed model and the results, compared with that of ARIMA model, show that the proposed model is capable of obtaining satisfactory forecasting not only in goodness of fit but also in generalization. Furthermore, the presented algorithm is integrated into a practical software system which has been severed for daily inflow predictions with lead-times varying from 1 to 6 days of more than twenty reservoirs operated by the Fujian Province Grid Company, China.

  9. Stratigraphic reconstruction of two debris avalanche deposits at Colima Volcano (Mexico): Insights into pre-failure conditions and climate influence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roverato, M.; Capra, L.; Sulpizio, R.; Norini, G.

    2011-10-01

    Throughout its history, Colima Volcano has experienced numerous partial edifice collapses with associated emplacement of debris avalanche deposits of contrasting volume, morphology and texture. A detailed stratigraphic study in the south-eastern sector of the volcano allowed the recognition of two debris avalanche deposits, named San Marcos (> 28,000 cal yr BP, V = ~ 1.3 km 3) and Tonila (15,000-16,000 cal yr BP, V = ~ 1 km 3 ). This work sheds light on the pre-failure conditions of the volcano based primarily on a detailed textural study of debris avalanche deposits and their associated pyroclastic and volcaniclastic successions. Furthermore, we show how the climate at the time of the Tonila collapse influenced the failure mechanisms. The > 28,000 cal yr BP San Marcos collapse was promoted by edifice steep flanks and ongoing tectonic and volcanotectonic deformation, and was followed by a magmatic eruption that emplaced pyroclastic flow deposits. In contrast, the Tonila failure occurred just after the Last Glacial Maximum (22,000-18,000 cal BP) and, in addition to the typical debris avalanche textural characteristics (angular to sub-angular clasts, coarse matrix, jigsaw fit) it shows a hybrid facies characterized by debris avalanche blocks embedded in a finer, homogenous and partially cemented matrix, a texture more characteristic of debris flow deposits. The Tonila debris avalanche is directly overlain by a 7-m thick hydromagmatic pyroclastic succession. Massive debris flow deposits, often more than 10 m thick and containing large amounts of tree trunk logs, represent the top unit in the succession. Fluvial deposits also occur throughout all successions; these represent periods of highly localized stream reworking. All these lines of evidence point to the presence of water in the edifice prior to the Tonila failure, suggesting it may have been a weakening factor. The Tonila failure appears to represent an anomalous event related to the particular climatic

  10. Evaluating information in multiple horizon forecasts. The DOE's energy price forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanders, Dwight R.; Manfredo, Mark R.; Boris, Keith

    2009-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy's (DOE) quarterly price forecasts for energy commodities are examined to determine the incremental information provided at the one-through four-quarter forecast horizons. A direct test for determining information content at alternative forecast horizons, developed by Vuchelen and Gutierrez [Vuchelen, J. and Gutierrez, M.-I. 'A Direct Test of the Information Content of the OECD Growth Forecasts.' International Journal of Forecasting. 21(2005):103-117.], is used. The results suggest that the DOE's price forecasts for crude oil, gasoline, and diesel fuel do indeed provide incremental information out to three-quarters ahead, while natural gas and electricity forecasts are informative out to the four-quarter horizon. In contrast, the DOE's coal price forecasts at two-, three-, and four-quarters ahead provide no incremental information beyond that provided for the one-quarter horizon. Recommendations of how to use these results for making forecast adjustments is also provided. (author)

  11. Study to forecast and determine characteristics of world satellite communications market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filep, R. T.; Schnapf, A.; Fordyce, S. W.

    1983-01-01

    The world commercial communications satellite market during the spring and summer of 1983 was examined and characteristics and forecasts of the market extending to the year 2000 were developed. Past, present and planned satellites were documented in relation to frequencies, procurement and launch dates, costs, transponders, and prime contractor. Characteristics of the market are outlined for the periods 1965 - 1985, 1986 - 1989, and 1990 - 2000. Market share forecasts, discussions of potential competitors in various world markets, and profiles of major communication satellite manufacturing and user countries are documented.

  12. Vortex Avalanches with Periodic Arrays of Pinning Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbas, J.; Heckel, T.; Kakalios, J.

    2001-03-01

    Numerical simulations by Nori and co-workers of dynamical phase transitions for magnetic vortices in type II superconductors when the defects which act as pinning sites are arranged in a periodic array have found a dramatic non-linear relationship between vortex voltage and driving current.2,4 In order to experimentally test the predictions of these simulations, a macroscopic physical analog of an array of flux vortices in the presense of an ordered lattice of pinning sites has been constructed. This simple table-top experimental system consists of conventional household magnets, arranged in an ordered grid (serving as the lattice of fixed pinning centers). A plexiglass sheet is positioned above these fixed magnets, and another collection of magnets (representing the magnetic flux vortices), oriented so that they are attracted to the fixed magnets are placed on top of the sheet. The entire apparatus is then tilted to a given angle (the analog of the driving voltage) and the velocity of the avalanching magnets is recorded using the induced voltage in a pick-up coil. By varying the ratio of movable magnets to fixed pinning magnets, the filling fraction can be adjusted, as can the pinning strength, by adjusting the separation of the plexiglass sheet between the fixed and movable magnets. The velocity of the avalanching magnets as the filling fraction is varied displays a jamming transition, with a non-trivial dependence on the pinning strength of the lattice of fixed magnets below the sheet.

  13. Advanced approach to numerical forecasting using artificial neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Štencl

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Current global market is driven by many factors, such as the information age, the time and amount of information distributed by many data channels it is practically impossible analyze all kinds of incoming information flows and transform them to data with classical methods. New requirements could be met by using other methods. Once trained on patterns artificial neural networks can be used for forecasting and they are able to work with extremely big data sets in reasonable time. The patterns used for learning process are samples of past data. This paper uses Radial Basis Functions neural network in comparison with Multi Layer Perceptron network with Back-propagation learning algorithm on prediction task. The task works with simplified numerical time series and includes forty observations with prediction for next five observations. The main topic of the article is the identification of the main differences between used neural networks architectures together with numerical forecasting. Detected differences then verify on practical comparative example.

  14. Space charge limited avalanche growth in multigap resistive plate chambers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akindinov, A.N.; Kaidalov, A.B.; Kisselev, S.M.; Alici, A.; Basile, M.; Cifarelli, L.; Anselmo, F.; Antonioli, P.; Romeo, G. Cara; Cindolo, F.; Baek, Y.; Kim, D.H.; Cosenza, F.; Caro, A. De; Pasquale, S. De; Bartolomeo, A. Di; Girard, M. Fusco; Guida, M.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; Kim, D.W.; Laurenti, G.; Lee, K.; Lee, S.C.; Lioublev, E.; Luvisetto, M.L.; Margotti, A.; Martemiyanov, A.N.; Nania, R.; Noferini, F.; Otiougova, P.; Pierella, F.; Polozov, P.A.; Scapparone, E.; Scioli, G.; Sellitto, S.B.; Smirnitski, A.V.; Tchoumakov, M.M.; Valenti, G.; Vicinanza, D.; Voloshin, K.G.; Williams, M.C.S.; Zagreev, B.V.; Zampolli, C.; Zichichi, A.

    2004-01-01

    Abstract The ALICE TOF array will be built using the Multigap Resistive Plate Chamber(MRPC) configured as a double stack. Each stack contains 5 gas gaps with width of 250 μm. There has been an intense R and D effort to optimise this new detector to withstand the problems connected with the high level of radiation at the LHC. One clear outcome of the R and D is that the growth of the gas avalanche is strongly affected by space charge. The effect of the space charge is a decrease in the rate of change in gain with electric field; this allows more stable operation of this detector. We have measured the gain as a function of the electric field and also measured the ratio of the fast charge to the total charge produced in the gas gap. It is well established that RPCs built with 250 μm gas gap have a much superior performance than 2 mm gaps; we discuss and compare the performance of 250 μm gap MRPCs with 2 mm gap RPCs to show the importance of space-charge limitation of avalanche growth. (orig.)

  15. Tax Policy in MENA Countries; Looking Back and Forward

    OpenAIRE

    Mario Mansour

    2015-01-01

    This paper reviews trends in taxation and revenue in MENA countries over 1990-2012, with a focus on non-resource taxes. On average, non-resource revenues declined slightly, while resource revenues soared. Country experiences vary: rates of main taxes and their revenues tend to be higher in the Magreb than in the Mashreq, except for the value-added tax, where lower rates are associated with equal or higher revenue; most oil producers raise little tax revenues—generally less than 5 percent of G...

  16. Two quantitative forecasting methods for macroeconomic indicators in Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela BRATU (SIMIONESCU

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Econometric modelling and exponential smoothing techniques are two quantitative forecasting methods with good results in practice, but the objective of the research was to find out which of the two techniques are better for short run predictions. Therefore, for inflation, unemployment and interest rate in Czech Republic some accuracy indicators were calculated for the predictions based on these methods. Short run forecasts on a horizon of 3 months were made for December 2011-February 2012, the econometric models being updated. For Czech Republic, the exponential smoothing techniques provided more accurate forecasts than the econometric models (VAR(2 models, ARMA procedure and models with lagged variables. One explication for the better performance of smoothing techniques would be that in the chosen countries the short run predictions more influenced by the recent evolution of the indicators.

  17. The simulation of resistive plate chambers in avalanche mode: charge spectra and efficiency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abbrescia, M. E-mail: Marcello.abbrescia@ba.infn.it; Colaleo, A.; Iaselli, G.; Loddo, F.; Maggi, M.; Marangelli, B.; Natali, S.; Nuzzo, S.; Pugliese, G.; Ranieri, A.; Romano, F.; Altieri, S.; Bruno, G.; Gianini, G.; Ratti, S.P.; Viola, L.; Vitulo, P

    1999-07-21

    A model to simulate the avalanche formation process and the induced signal in a Resistive Plate Chamber is presented. A first investigation of the effects of various parameters on the performance of this detector is reported. (author)

  18. Energy pumping in electrical circuits under avalanche noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanazawa, Kiyoshi; Sagawa, Takahiro; Hayakawa, Hisao

    2014-07-01

    We theoretically study energy pumping processes in an electrical circuit with avalanche diodes, where non-Gaussian athermal noise plays a crucial role. We show that a positive amount of energy (work) can be extracted by an external manipulation of the circuit in a cyclic way, even when the system is spatially symmetric. We discuss the properties of the energy pumping process for both quasistatic and finite-time cases, and analytically obtain formulas for the amounts of the work and the power. Our results demonstrate the significance of the non-Gaussianity in energetics of electrical circuits.

  19. Sixteen-year follow-up of childhood avalanche survivors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thordardottir, E.B.; Valdimarsdóttir, Unnur A; Hansdottir, Ingunn

    2016-01-01

    : Childhood survivors (aged 2-19 at the time of exposure) of two avalanches were identified through nationwide registers 16 years later. The PosttraumaticDiagnostic Scale was used to assess current PTSD symptoms. One-way ANOVA was used to explore PTSD symptoms by background and trauma-specific factors......, as well as associations with current SES. Predictors of PTSD symptoms were examined by multivariable regression analysis. Results: Response rate was 66% (108/163). Results from univariate ANOVA analysis revealed that female sex was associated with PTSD symptoms (F =5.96, p...

  20. A new method to improve multiplication factor in micro-pixel avalanche photodiodes with high pixel density

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sadygov, Z. [National Nuclear Research Center, Baku (Azerbaijan); Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Dubna (Russian Federation); Ahmadov, F. [National Nuclear Research Center, Baku (Azerbaijan); Khorev, S. [Zecotek Photonics Inc., Vancouver (Canada); Sadigov, A., E-mail: saazik@yandex.ru [National Nuclear Research Center, Baku (Azerbaijan); Suleymanov, S. [National Nuclear Research Center, Baku (Azerbaijan); Madatov, R.; Mehdiyeva, R. [Institute of Radiation Problems, Baku (Azerbaijan); Zerrouk, F. [Zecotek Photonics Inc., Vancouver (Canada)

    2016-07-11

    Presented is a new model describing development of the avalanche process in time, taking into account the dynamics of electric field within the depleted region of the diode and the effect of parasitic capacitance shunting individual quenching micro-resistors on device parameters. Simulations show that the effective capacitance of a single pixel, which defines the multiplication factor, is the sum of the pixel capacitance and a parasitic capacitance shunting its quenching micro-resistor. Conclusions obtained as a result of modeling open possibilities of improving the pixel gain in micropixel avalanche photodiodes with high pixel density (or low pixel capacitance).

  1. National Forecast Charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. National Forecast Charts

  2. X-ray spectrometry with Peltier-cooled large area avalanche photodiodes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandes, L.M.P.; Lopes, J.A.M.; Santos, J.M.F. dos; Conde, C.A.N.

    2004-01-01

    Performance characteristics of the response of a Peltier-cooled large-area avalanche photodiode are investigated. Detector gain, energy linearity, energy resolution and minimum detectable energy are studied at different operation temperatures. Detector energy resolution and lowest detectable X-ray energy present a strong improvement as the operation temperature is reduced from 25 to 15 deg. C and slower improvements are achieved for temperatures below 10 deg. C

  3. ALS-based hummock size-distance relationship assessment of Mt Shasta debris avalanche deposit, Northern California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tortini, Riccardo; Carn, Simon; van Wyk de Vries, Benjamin

    2015-04-01

    The failure of destabilized volcano flanks is a likely occurrence during the lifetime of a stratovolcano, generating large debris avalanches and drastically changing landforms around volcanoes. The significant hazards associated with these events in the Cascade range were demonstrated, for example, by the collapse of Mt St Helens (WA), which triggered its devastating explosive eruption in 1980. The rapid modification of the landforms due to these events makes it difficult to estimate the magnitude of prehistoric avalanches. However, the widespread preservation of hummocks along the course of rockslide-debris avalanches is highly significant for understanding the physical characteristics of these landslides. Mt Shasta is a 4,317 m high, snow-capped, steep-sloped stratovolcano located in Northern California. The current edifice began forming on the remnants of an ancestral Mt Shasta that collapsed ~300-380k years ago producing one of the largest debris avalanches known on Earth. The debris avalanche deposit (DAD) covers a surface of ~450 km2 across the Shasta valley, with an estimated volume of ~26 km3. We analyze ALS data on hummocks from the prehistoric Shasta valley DAD in northern California (USA) to derive the relationship between hummock size and distance from landslide source, and interpret the geomorphic significance of the intercept and slope coefficients of the observed functional relationships. Given the limited extent of the ALS survey (i.e. 40 km2), the high-resolution dataset is used for validation of the morphological parameters extracted from freely available, broader coverage DTMs such as the National Elevation Dataset (NED). The ALS dataset also permits the identification of subtle topographic features not apparent in the field or in coarser resolution datasets, including a previously unmapped fault, of crucial importance for both seismic and volcanic hazard assessment in volcanic areas. We present evidence from the Shasta DAD of neotectonic

  4. An abridged history of federal involvement in space weather forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, Becaja; McCarron, Eoin; Jonas, Seth

    2017-10-01

    Public awareness of space weather and its adverse effects on critical infrastructure systems, services, and technologies (e.g., the electric grid, telecommunications, and satellites) has grown through recent media coverage and scientific research. However, federal interest and involvement in space weather dates back to the decades between World War I and World War II when the National Bureau of Standards led efforts to observe, forecast, and provide warnings of space weather events that could interfere with high-frequency radio transmissions. The efforts to observe and predict space weather continued through the 1960s during the rise of the Cold War and into the present with U.S. government efforts to prepare the nation for space weather events. This paper provides a brief overview of the history of federal involvement in space weather forecasting from World War II, through the Apollo Program, and into the present.

  5. Storage and methyl jasmonate in postharvest conservation of roses cv. Avalanche

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elka Fabiana Aparecida Almeida

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The use of methyl jasmonate has demonstrated its efficiency to extend the vase life of cut flowers. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of methyl jasmonate associated with storage at low temperatures on the postharvest quality of Rosa cv. Avalanche stems. The treatments consisted of 125, 250, 500 and 1000 μM of methyl jasmonate, besides the control with distilled water. The flower buds were sprayed with 4 mL of the solution, according to the treatments, and then kept in a cold chamber (1 °C for periods of 2 and 6 days. Subsequently, the stems were taken to the postharvest laboratory at a temperature of 16 °C. Better quality, higher fresh weight and water absorption were observed in flower stems stored for 2 days. The application of methyl jasmonate caused less turgescence and greater darkening of roses. It was possible to conclude that two days is the best storage time at 1 °C and the use of methyl jasmonate does not maintain the quality of roses cv. Avalanche after harvest.

  6. TCAD simulation of Low Gain Avalanche Detectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalal, Ranjeet; Jain, Geetika; Bhardwaj, Ashutosh; Ranjan, Kirti

    2016-11-01

    In the present work, detailed simulation using Technology Computer Aided Design (TCAD) tool, Silvaco for non-irradiated and irradiated LGAD (Low Gain Avalanche Detector) devices has been carried out. The effects of different design parameters and proton irradiation on LGAD operation are discussed in detail. An already published effective two trap bulk damage model is used to simulate the radiation damage without implementing any acceptor removal term. The TCAD simulation for irradiated LGAD devices produce decreasing gain with increasing fluence, similar to the measurement results. The space charge density and electric field distribution are used to illustrate the possible reasons for the degradation of gain of the irradiated LGAD devices.

  7. TCAD simulation of Low Gain Avalanche Detectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dalal, Ranjeet; Jain, Geetika; Bhardwaj, Ashutosh, E-mail: ashutosh.bhardwaj@cern.ch; Ranjan, Kirti

    2016-11-11

    In the present work, detailed simulation using Technology Computer Aided Design (TCAD) tool, Silvaco for non-irradiated and irradiated LGAD (Low Gain Avalanche Detector) devices has been carried out. The effects of different design parameters and proton irradiation on LGAD operation are discussed in detail. An already published effective two trap bulk damage model is used to simulate the radiation damage without implementing any acceptor removal term. The TCAD simulation for irradiated LGAD devices produce decreasing gain with increasing fluence, similar to the measurement results. The space charge density and electric field distribution are used to illustrate the possible reasons for the degradation of gain of the irradiated LGAD devices.

  8. TCAD simulation of Low Gain Avalanche Detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dalal, Ranjeet; Jain, Geetika; Bhardwaj, Ashutosh; Ranjan, Kirti

    2016-01-01

    In the present work, detailed simulation using Technology Computer Aided Design (TCAD) tool, Silvaco for non-irradiated and irradiated LGAD (Low Gain Avalanche Detector) devices has been carried out. The effects of different design parameters and proton irradiation on LGAD operation are discussed in detail. An already published effective two trap bulk damage model is used to simulate the radiation damage without implementing any acceptor removal term. The TCAD simulation for irradiated LGAD devices produce decreasing gain with increasing fluence, similar to the measurement results. The space charge density and electric field distribution are used to illustrate the possible reasons for the degradation of gain of the irradiated LGAD devices.

  9. Forecasting telecommunication new service demand by analogy method and combined forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Feng-Jenq

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In the modeling forecast field, we are usually faced with the more difficult problems of forecasting market demand for a new service or product. A new service or product is defined as that there is absence of historical data in this new market. We hardly use models to execute the forecasting work directly. In the Taiwan telecommunication industry, after liberalization in 1996, there are many new services opened continually. For optimal investment, it is necessary that the operators, who have been granted the concessions and licenses, forecast this new service within their planning process. Though there are some methods to solve or avoid this predicament, in this paper, we will propose one forecasting procedure that integrates the concept of analogy method and the idea of combined forecast to generate new service forecast. In view of the above, the first half of this paper describes the procedure of analogy method and the approach of combined forecast, and the second half provides the case of forecasting low-tier phone demand in Taiwan to illustrate this procedure's feasibility.

  10. Exploring the interactions between forecast accuracy, risk perception and perceived forecast reliability in reservoir operator's decision to use forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafiee-Jood, M.; Cai, X.

    2017-12-01

    Advances in streamflow forecasts at different time scales offer a promise for proactive flood management and improved risk management. Despite the huge potential, previous studies have found that water resources managers are often not willing to incorporate streamflow forecasts information in decisions making, particularly in risky situations. While low accuracy of forecasts information is often cited as the main reason, some studies have found that implementation of streamflow forecasts sometimes is impeded by institutional obstacles and behavioral factors (e.g., risk perception). In fact, a seminal study by O'Connor et al. (2005) found that risk perception is the strongest determinant of forecast use while managers' perception about forecast reliability is not significant. In this study, we aim to address this issue again. However, instead of using survey data and regression analysis, we develop a theoretical framework to assess the user-perceived value of streamflow forecasts. The framework includes a novel behavioral component which incorporates both risk perception and perceived forecast reliability. The framework is then used in a hypothetical problem where reservoir operator should react to probabilistic flood forecasts with different reliabilities. The framework will allow us to explore the interactions among risk perception and perceived forecast reliability, and among the behavioral components and information accuracy. The findings will provide insights to improve the usability of flood forecasts information through better communication and education.

  11. Analysis and forecasting of nonresidential electricity consumption in Romania

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bianco, Vincenzo; Manca, Oronzio; Nardini, Sergio [Dipartimento di Ingegneria Aerospaziale e Meccanica, Seconda Universita degli Studi di Napoli, Via Roma 29, 81031 Aversa (CE) (Italy); Minea, Alina A. [Faculty of Materials Science and Engineering, Technical University Gh. Asachi from Iasi, Bd. D. Mangeron, No. 59, Iasi (Romania)

    2010-11-15

    Electricity consumption forecast has fundamental importance in the energy planning of a country. In this paper, we present an analysis and two forecast models for nonresidential electricity consumption in Romania. A first part of the paper is dedicated to the estimation of GDP and price elasticities of consumption. Nonresidential short run GDP and price elasticities are found to be approximately 0.136 and -0.0752, respectively, whereas long run GDP and price elasticities are equal to 0.496 and -0.274 respectively. The second part of the study is dedicated to the forecasting of nonresidential electricity consumption up to year 2020. A Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method and a trigonometric grey model with rolling mechanism (TGMRM) are employed for the consumption prediction. The two models lead to similar results, with an average deviation less than 5%. This deviation is to be considered acceptable in relation to the time horizon considered in the present study. (author)

  12. Analysis and forecasting of nonresidential electricity consumption in Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bianco, Vincenzo; Manca, Oronzio; Nardini, Sergio; Minea, Alina A.

    2010-01-01

    Electricity consumption forecast has fundamental importance in the energy planning of a country. In this paper, we present an analysis and two forecast models for nonresidential electricity consumption in Romania. A first part of the paper is dedicated to the estimation of GDP and price elasticities of consumption. Nonresidential short run GDP and price elasticities are found to be approximately 0.136 and -0.0752, respectively, whereas long run GDP and price elasticities are equal to 0.496 and -0.274 respectively. The second part of the study is dedicated to the forecasting of nonresidential electricity consumption up to year 2020. A Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method and a trigonometric grey model with rolling mechanism (TGMRM) are employed for the consumption prediction. The two models lead to similar results, with an average deviation less than 5%. This deviation is to be considered acceptable in relation to the time horizon considered in the present study. (author)

  13. The performance of photon counting imaging with a Geiger mode silicon avalanche photodiode

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qu, Hui-Ming; Zhang, Yi-Fan; Ji, Zhong-Jie; Chen, Qian

    2013-01-01

    In principle, photon counting imaging can detect a photon. With the development of low-level-light image intensifier techniques and low-level-light detection devices, photon counting imaging can now detect photon images under extremely low illumination. Based on a Geiger mode silicon avalanche photodiode single photon counter, an experimental system for photon counting imaging was built through two-dimensional scanning of a SPAD (single photon avalanche diode) detector. The feasibility of the imaging platform was validated experimentally. Two images with different characteristics, namely, the USAF 1951 resolution test panel and the image of Lena, were chosen to evaluate the imaging performance of the experimental system. The results were compared and analysed. The imaging properties under various illumination and scanning steps were studied. The lowest illumination limit of the SPAD photon counting imaging was determined. (letter)

  14. A discrete model of the development and relaxation of a local microbreakdown in silicon avalanche photodiodes operating in the Geiger mode

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanyushin, I. V.; Gergel, V. A.; Gontar', V. M.; Zimoglyad, V. A.; Tishin, Yu. I.; Kholodnov, V. A.; Shcheleva, I. M.

    2007-01-01

    A new discrete theoretical model of the development and relaxation of a local microbreakdown in silicon avalanche photodiodes operating in the Geiger mode is developed. It is shown that the spreading resistance in the substrate profoundly affects both the amplitude of a single-photon electrical pulse and the possibility of attaining the steady-state form of the avalanche breakdown excluding the Geiger mode of the photodiode's operation. The model is employed to interpret the experimental data obtained using test single-photon cells of avalanche photodiodes fabricated on the basis of the 0.25-μm silicon technology with the use of deep implantation to form the region of avalanche multiplication for the charge carriers. Excellent functional properties of the studied type of the single-photon (Geiger) cell are noted. A typical amplitude characteristic of the cell for optical radiation with the wavelength λ = 0.56 μm in the irradiance range of 10 -3 -10 2 lx is presented; this characteristic indicates that the quantum efficiency of photoconversion is extremely high

  15. Current–voltage characteristics of high-voltage 4H-SiC p{sup +}–n{sub 0}–n{sup +} diodes in the avalanche breakdown mode

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ivanov, P. A., E-mail: Pavel.Ivanov@mail.ioffe.ru; Potapov, A. S.; Samsonova, T. P.; Grekhov, I. V. [Ioffe Physical–Technical Institute (Russian Federation)

    2017-03-15

    p{sup +}–n{sub 0}–n{sup +} 4H-SiC diodes with homogeneous avalanche breakdown at 1860 V are fabricated. The pulse current–voltage characteristics are measured in the avalanche-breakdown mode up to a current density of 4000 A/cm{sup 2}. It is shown that the avalanche-breakdown voltage increases with increasing temperature. The following diode parameters are determined: the avalanche resistance (8.6 × 10{sup –2} Ω cm{sup 2}), the electron drift velocity in the n{sub 0} base at electric fields higher than 10{sup 6} V/cm (7.8 × 10{sup 6} cm/s), and the relative temperature coefficient of the breakdown voltage (2.1 × 10{sup –4} K{sup –1}).

  16. Modeling and Computing of Stock Index Forecasting Based on Neural Network and Markov Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Yonghui; Han, Dongmei; Dai, Weihui

    2014-01-01

    The stock index reflects the fluctuation of the stock market. For a long time, there have been a lot of researches on the forecast of stock index. However, the traditional method is limited to achieving an ideal precision in the dynamic market due to the influences of many factors such as the economic situation, policy changes, and emergency events. Therefore, the approach based on adaptive modeling and conditional probability transfer causes the new attention of researchers. This paper presents a new forecast method by the combination of improved back-propagation (BP) neural network and Markov chain, as well as its modeling and computing technology. This method includes initial forecasting by improved BP neural network, division of Markov state region, computing of the state transition probability matrix, and the prediction adjustment. Results of the empirical study show that this method can achieve high accuracy in the stock index prediction, and it could provide a good reference for the investment in stock market. PMID:24782659

  17. Modeling and Computing of Stock Index Forecasting Based on Neural Network and Markov Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonghui Dai

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The stock index reflects the fluctuation of the stock market. For a long time, there have been a lot of researches on the forecast of stock index. However, the traditional method is limited to achieving an ideal precision in the dynamic market due to the influences of many factors such as the economic situation, policy changes, and emergency events. Therefore, the approach based on adaptive modeling and conditional probability transfer causes the new attention of researchers. This paper presents a new forecast method by the combination of improved back-propagation (BP neural network and Markov chain, as well as its modeling and computing technology. This method includes initial forecasting by improved BP neural network, division of Markov state region, computing of the state transition probability matrix, and the prediction adjustment. Results of the empirical study show that this method can achieve high accuracy in the stock index prediction, and it could provide a good reference for the investment in stock market.

  18. Mean secondary electron yield of avalanche electrons in the channels of a microchannel plate detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Funsten, H.O.; Suszcynsky, D.M.; Harper, R.W.

    1996-01-01

    By modeling the statistical evolution of an avalanche created by 20 keV protons impacting the input surface of a z-stack microchannel plate (MCP) detector, the mean secondary electron yield γ C of avalanche electrons propagating through a MCP channel is measured to equal 1.37 for 760 V per MCP in the z stack. This value agrees with other studies that used MCP gain measurements to infer γ C . The technique described here to measure γ C is independent of gain saturation effects and simplifying assumptions used in the segmented dynode model, both of which can introduce errors when inferring γ C through gain measurements. copyright 1996 American Institute of Physics

  19. Supershort avalanche electron beam in SF6 and krypton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Cheng; Tarasenko, Victor F.; Gu, Jianwei; Baksht, Evgeni Kh.; Beloplotov, Dmitry V.; Burachenko, Alexander G.; Yan, Ping; Lomaev, Mikhail I.; Shao, Tao

    2016-03-01

    Runaway electrons play an important role in the avalanche formation in nanosecond- and subnanosecond- pulse discharges. In this paper, characteristics of a supershort avalanche electron beam (SAEB) generated at the subnanosecond and nanosecond breakdown in sulfur hexafluoride (SF6 ) in an inhomogeneous electric field were studied. One pulser operated at negative polarity with voltage pulse amplitude of ˜130 kV and rise time of 0.3 ns. The other pulser operated at negative polarity with voltage pulse amplitude of 70 kV and rise time of ˜1.6 ns . SAEB parameters in SF6 are compared with those obtained in krypton (Kr), nitrogen (N2 ), air, and mixtures of SF6 with krypton or nitrogen. Experimental results showed that SAEB currents appeared during the rise-time of the voltage pulse for both pulsers. Moreover, amplitudes of the SAEB current in SF6 and Kr approximately ranged from several to tens of milliamps at atmospheric pressure, which were smaller than those in N2 and air (ranging from hundreds of milliamps to several amperes). Furthermore, the concentration of SF6 additive could significantly reduce the SAEB current in N2-SF6 mixture, but it slightly affected the SAEB current in Kr -SF6 mixture because of the atomic/molecular ionization cross section of the gas had a much greater impact on the SAEB current rather than the electronegativity.

  20. Chaotic particle swarm optimization algorithm in a support vector regression electric load forecasting model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, W.-C.

    2009-01-01

    Accurate forecasting of electric load has always been the most important issues in the electricity industry, particularly for developing countries. Due to the various influences, electric load forecasting reveals highly nonlinear characteristics. Recently, support vector regression (SVR), with nonlinear mapping capabilities of forecasting, has been successfully employed to solve nonlinear regression and time series problems. However, it is still lack of systematic approaches to determine appropriate parameter combination for a SVR model. This investigation elucidates the feasibility of applying chaotic particle swarm optimization (CPSO) algorithm to choose the suitable parameter combination for a SVR model. The empirical results reveal that the proposed model outperforms the other two models applying other algorithms, genetic algorithm (GA) and simulated annealing algorithm (SA). Finally, it also provides the theoretical exploration of the electric load forecasting support system (ELFSS)

  1. Studies of light emission by continuously sensitive avalanche chambers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charpak, G.; Dominik, W.; Fabre, J.P.; Gaudaen, J.; Sauli, F.; Suzuki, M.

    1988-01-01

    The optimal conditions for the optical recording of images of electron avalanches between parallel meshes have been studied. The emission spectra of gas mixtures have been investigated, where triethylamine (TEA), tetrakis(dimethylamine)ethylene (TMAE), and nitrogen, are used as the photon-emitting agents. For a given charge gain, the photon intensity decreases with electric field. This favours amplification between parallel meshes instead of wires. The use of intensified CCD cameras permits the recording of the local energy loss along the tracks. (orig.)

  2. Forecasting in Complex Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification

  3. Computational and experimental progress on laser-activated gas avalanche switches for broadband, high-power electromagnetic pulse generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayhall, D.J.; Yee, J.H.; Villa, F.

    1991-01-01

    This paper discusses the gas avalanche switch, a high-voltage, picosecond-speed switch, which has been proposed. The basic switch consists of pulse-charged electrodes, immersed in a high-pressure gas. An avalanche discharge is induced in the gas between the electrodes by ionization from a picosecond-scale laser pulse. The avalanching electrons move toward the anode, causing the applied voltage to collapse in picoseconds. This voltage collapse, if rapid enough, generates electromagnetic waves. A two-dimensional (2D), finite difference computer code solves Maxwell's equations for transverse magnetic modes for rectilinear electrodes between parallel plate conductors, along with electron conservation equations for continuity, momentum, and energy. Collision frequencies for ionization and momentum and energy transfer to neutral molecules are assumed to scale linearly with neutral pressure. Electrode charging and laser-driven electron deposition are assumed to be instantaneous. Code calculations are done for a pulse generator geometry, consisting of an 0.7 mm wide by 0.8 mm high, beveled, rectangular center electrode between grounded parallel plates at 2 mm spacing in air

  4. Universal avalanche statistics and triggering close to failure in a mean-field model of rheological fracture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baró, Jordi; Davidsen, Jörn

    2018-03-01

    The hypothesis of critical failure relates the presence of an ultimate stability point in the structural constitutive equation of materials to a divergence of characteristic scales in the microscopic dynamics responsible for deformation. Avalanche models involving critical failure have determined common universality classes for stick-slip processes and fracture. However, not all empirical failure processes exhibit the trademarks of criticality. The rheological properties of materials introduce dissipation, usually reproduced in conceptual models as a hardening of the coarse grained elements of the system. Here, we investigate the effects of transient hardening on (i) the activity rate and (ii) the statistical properties of avalanches. We find the explicit representation of transient hardening in the presence of generalized viscoelasticity and solve the corresponding mean-field model of fracture. In the quasistatic limit, the accelerated energy release is invariant with respect to rheology and the avalanche propagation can be reinterpreted in terms of a stochastic counting process. A single universality class can be defined from such analogy, and all statistical properties depend only on the distance to criticality. We also prove that interevent correlations emerge due to the hardening—even in the quasistatic limit—that can be interpreted as "aftershocks" and "foreshocks."

  5. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for forecasting rubber milk production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmat, R. F.; Nurmawan; Sembiring, S.; Syahputra, M. F.; Fadli

    2018-02-01

    Natural Rubber is classified as the top export commodity in Indonesia. Its high production leads to a significant contribution to Indonesia’s foreign exchange. Before natural rubber ready to be exported to another country, the production of rubber milk becomes the primary concern. In this research, we use adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to do rubber milk production forecasting. The data presented here is taken from PT. Anglo Eastern Plantation (AEP), which has high data variance and range for rubber milk production. Our data will span from January 2009 until December 2015. The best forecasting result is 1,182% in term of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).

  6. FORECAST FOR SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT IN PEDIATRY FOR 2006–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.Yu. Al'bitskiy

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This publication contains the predictions of the scientific studies in pediatric patients. The forecast is developed by leading pediatricians of the country. It was based on the analysis of pediatrics developement and pediatric practice in the Russian Federation in recent decades.

  7. Performance and simulation of a double-gap resistive plate chamber in the avalanche mode

    CERN Document Server

    Ahn Sung Hwan; Hong Byung Sik; Hong Seong Jong; Ito, M; Kang, T I; Kim, B I; Kim, J H; Kim, Y J; Kim, Y U; Koo, D G; Lee Hyup Woo; Lee, K B; Lee Kyong Sei; Lee Seok Jae; Lim, J K; Moon, D H; Nam, S K; Park, S; Park, W J; Rhee June Tak; Ryu, M S; Sim Kwang Souk

    2004-01-01

    We present a detailed analysis of the time and the charge signals of a prototype double-gap resistive plate chamber for the endcap region of the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) detector at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). The chamber was built with relatively low-resistivity bakelite. The time and the charge results demonstrate that the high- voltage plateau, which satisfies various CMS requirements for the efficiency, the noise cluster rate, the fraction of the large signal, and the streamer probability, can be extended at least up to 400 V with the present design. In addition, a simple avalanche multiplication model is studied in detail. The model can reproduce the experimental charge spectra reasonably well. The charge information enables us to estimate the effective Townsend coefficient in avalanche-mode operation.

  8. The Role of Implied Volatility in Forecasting Future Realized Volatility and Jumps in Foreign Exchange, Stock and Bond Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper

    We study the forecasting of future realized volatility in the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, as well as the continuous sample path and jump components of this, from variables in the information set, including implied volatility backed out from option prices. Recent nonparametric...

  9. Mapping flux avalanches in MgB2 films-equivalence between magneto-optical imaging and magnetic measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colauto, F; Choi, E M; Lee, J Y; Lee, S I; Yurchenko, V V; Johansen, T H; Ortiz, W A

    2007-01-01

    Vortex avalanches are known to occur in MgB 2 films within a certain range of temperatures and magnetic fields. These events, resulting from a thermomagnetic instability, were first revealed by real-time magneto-optical imaging, which exposed dendritic paths of abrupt flux propagation. This very powerful technique has, however, a practical limitation, since sensors that are currently available cannot be used at high magnetic fields. This letter shows that results obtained using dc magnetometry are in good correspondence with those furnished by magneto-optical imaging, demonstrating that the two techniques can be efficiently used as complementary tools to map vortex avalanches in superconducting films. (rapid communication)

  10. Observation of Spectral Signatures of 1/f Dynamics in Avalanches on Granular Piles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yong W.; Nishino, Thomas K.

    1997-03-01

    Granular piles of monodisperse glass spheres, 0.46+0.03 mm in diameter, have been studied. The base diameter of the pile has been varied from 3/8" to 2" in 1/8" increments. A single-grain dispenser with greater than 95consisting of a stepping motor-actuated reciprocating arm with a single-grain scoop. Each grain is dropped on the apex of the pile with lowest possible landing velocity at intervals at least 30longer than the duration of largest avalanches for each given pile. Each grain being added and being lost in avalanches from the pile is optically detected and recorded. The power spectrum of the net addition of grains to the pile as a function of time is found to be robustly 1/f for all base sizes. A wide variety of dynamical properties of 1/f systems, as obtained from the high precision data, will be presented.

  11. Volatility forecasting with the wavelet transformation algorithm GARCH model: Evidence from African stock markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Tahir Ismail

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The daily returns of four African countries' stock market indices for the period January 2, 2000, to December 31, 2014, were employed to compare the GARCH(1,1 model and a newly proposed Maximal Overlap Discreet Wavelet Transform (MODWT-GARCH(1,1 model. The results showed that although both models fit the returns data well, the forecast produced by the GARCH(1,1 model underestimates the observed returns whereas the newly proposed MODWT-GARCH(1,1 model generates an accurate forecast value of the observed returns. The results generally showed that the newly proposed MODWT-GARCH(1,1 model best fits returns series for these African countries. Hence the proposed MODWT-GARCH should be applied on other context to further verify its validity.

  12. Low Back Pain in 17 Countries, a Rasch Analysis of the ICF Core Set for Low Back Pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roe, Cecilie; Bautz-Holter, Erik; Cieza, Alarcos

    2013-01-01

    Previous studies indicate that a worldwide measurement tool may be developed based on the International Classification of Functioning Disability and Health (ICF) Core Sets for chronic conditions. The aim of the present study was to explore the possibility of constructing a cross-cultural measurement of functioning for patients with low back pain…

  13. Photon-counting monolithic avalanche photodiode arrays for the super collider

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishaque, A.N.; Castleberry, D.E.; Rougeot, H.M.

    1994-01-01

    In fiber tracking, calorimetry, and other high energy and nuclear physics experiments, the need arises to detect an optical signal consisting of a few photons (in some cases a single photoelectron) with a detector insensitive to magnetic fields. Previous attempts to detect a single photoelectron have involved avalanche photodiodes (APDs) operated in the Geiger mode, the visible light photon counter, and a photomultiplier tube with an APD as the anode. In this paper it is demonstrated that silicon APDs, biased below the breakdown voltage, can be used to detect a signal of a few photons with conventional pulse counting circuitry at room temperature. Moderate cooling, it is further argued, could make it possible to detect a single photoelectron. Monolithic arrays of silicon avalanche photodiodes fabricated by Radiation Monitoring Devices, Inc. (RMD) were evaluated for possible use in the Super Collider detector systems. Measurements on 3 element x 3 element (2 mm pitch) APD arrays, using pulse counting circuitry with a charge sensitive amplifier (CSA) and a Gaussian filter, are reported and found to conform to a simple noise model. The model is used to obtain the optimal operating point. Experimental results are described in Section II, modeling results in Section III, and the conclusions are summarized in Section IV

  14. Does Avalanche Shovel Shape Affect Excavation Time: A Pilot Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kurt Schindelwig

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available In Europe and North America, approximately 150 fatalities occur as a result of avalanches every year. However, it is unclear whether certain shovel shapes are more effective than others in snow removal during avalanche victim recovery. The objective was to determine the performance parameters with a developed standardized test using different shovel shapes and to determine sex-specific differences. Hence, several parameters were determined for clearing the snow from a snow filled box (15 men, 14 women. A flat (F and a deep (D shovel blade with the shaft connected straight (S or in clearing mode (C were used for the investigation of the shovel shapes FS, DC and the subsequent use of DC&DS. Mean snow mass shifted per unit time increased significantly from 1.50 kg/s with FS to 1.71 kg/s (14% with DS and further to 1.79 kg/s (4% with DC&DS for all participants. Snow mass shifted per unit time was 44% higher (p < 0.05 for men than for women. In excavation operations, the sex-specific physical performance should be taken into account. The results were limited to barely binding snow, because only with this snow did the tests show a high reliability.

  15. Comparisons of forecasting for hepatitis in Guangxi Province, China by using three neural networks models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruijing Gan

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This study compares and evaluates the prediction of hepatitis in Guangxi Province, China by using back propagation neural networks based genetic algorithm (BPNN-GA, generalized regression neural networks (GRNN, and wavelet neural networks (WNN. In order to compare the results of forecasting, the data obtained from 2004 to 2013 and 2014 were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The results show that when the small data set of hepatitis has seasonal fluctuation, the prediction result by BPNN-GA will be better than the two other methods. The WNN method is suitable for predicting the large data set of hepatitis that has seasonal fluctuation and the same for the GRNN method when the data increases steadily.

  16. Inflation Forecast Contracts

    OpenAIRE

    Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balanc...

  17. Proof-of-concept and feasibility demonstrations for an avalanche photodiode/photoelastic modulator-based imaging polarimeter

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Building on the successful heritage of JPL’s Multiangle SpectroPolarimetric Imager (MSPI), we propose infusing HgCdTe avalanche photodiode (APD) array technology...

  18. Experimental determination of the electron-avalanche and the electron-ion recombination coefficient

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ernst, G.J.; Boer, A.G.

    1980-01-01

    The electron-ion recombination coefficient γ and the avalanche coefficient δ = (α − a) · vd, where α and a are the ionizat ion and attachment coefficients respectively and vd the drift velocity of the electrons, have been experimentally determined in a self-sustained CO2-laser system (1:1:3 mixture)

  19. Stratigraphy, age, and correlation of voluminous debris-avalanche events from an ancestral Egmont Volcano : implications for coastal plain construction and regional hazard assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alloway, B.V.; McComb, P.; Neall, V.; Vucetich, C.; Gibb, J.; Sherburn, S.; Stirling, M.W.

    2005-01-01

    Two previously unrecognised debris-avalanche deposits have been identified on the eastern flanks of Egmont Volcano beneath a thick mantle of tephric and andic soil material that has mostly subdued their topographic expression. The Ngaere Formation is a c. 23 14 C ka large volume (>5.85 km 3 ) debris-avalanche deposit that is widely distributed over 320-500 km 2 of the north-east, south-east, and south portions of the Egmont ring plain. The second deposit, Okawa Formation, is a c. 105 ka large volume (>3.62 km 3 ) debris-avalanche deposit that has been mapped over a minimum area of 255 km 2 in northern and north-eastern Taranaki. Both debris-avalanche formations contain axial facies with hummocks composed mainly of block-supported brecciated andesitic debris. A less conspicuous marginal facies, texturally resembling a mudflow, is more extensive. A third debris-avalanche deposit (Motunui Formation) is extensively preserved along the north Taranaki coast where it is truncated by a c. 127 ka wave cut surface (NT2) and closely overlies a c. 210 ka wave cut surface (NT3). The source of this debris-avalanche deposit is unknown. Side-scan sonar and shallow seismic profiling have been useful in accurately delineating the distribution of combined Okawa and Motunui debris-avalanche deposits in the offshore environment but cannot distinguish between the two deposits or enable onshore spatial and volumetric estimates for each unit to be revised. However, the widespread occurrence of debris-avalanche rock material offshore does emphasise the importance of this lag material altering the orientation of the coast influencing both wave climate and rates of coastal erosion. Similarly, the extensive onshore occurrence of debris-avalanche rock material appears to be a significant factor in widening of the north Taranaki coastal plain and preservation of the NT2 and NT3 uplifted marine terrace surfaces. Initiation of collapse by magmatically-induced seismicity is apparently common at

  20. Analysis and forecast of railway coal transportation volume based on BP neural network combined forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yongbin; Xie, Haihong; Wu, Liuyi

    2018-05-01

    The share of coal transportation in the total railway freight volume is about 50%. As is widely acknowledged, coal industry is vulnerable to the economic situation and national policies. Coal transportation volume fluctuates significantly under the new economic normal. Grasp the overall development trend of railway coal transportation market, have important reference and guidance significance to the railway and coal industry decision-making. By analyzing the economic indicators and policy implications, this paper expounds the trend of the coal transportation volume, and further combines the economic indicators with the high correlation with the coal transportation volume with the traditional traffic prediction model to establish a combined forecasting model based on the back propagation neural network. The error of the prediction results is tested, which proves that the method has higher accuracy and has practical application.

  1. DEFENDER: Detecting and Forecasting Epidemics Using Novel Data-Analytics for Enhanced Response.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas Thapen

    Full Text Available In recent years social and news media have increasingly been used to explain patterns in disease activity and progression. Social media data, principally from the Twitter network, has been shown to correlate well with official disease case counts. This fact has been exploited to provide advance warning of outbreak detection, forecasting of disease levels and the ability to predict the likelihood of individuals developing symptoms. In this paper we introduce DEFENDER, a software system that integrates data from social and news media and incorporates algorithms for outbreak detection, situational awareness and forecasting. As part of this system we have developed a technique for creating a location network for any country or region based purely on Twitter data. We also present a disease nowcasting (forecasting the current but still unknown level approach which leverages counts from multiple symptoms, which was found to improve the nowcasting accuracy by 37 percent over a model that used only previous case data. Finally we attempt to forecast future levels of symptom activity based on observed user movement on Twitter, finding a moderate gain of 5 percent over a time series forecasting model.

  2. A Novel Nonlinear Combined Forecasting System for Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengshi Tian

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting plays an indispensable role in electric power systems, which is not only an extremely challenging task but also a concerning issue for all society due to complex nonlinearity characteristics. However, most previous combined forecasting models were based on optimizing weight coefficients to develop a linear combined forecasting model, while ignoring that the linear combined model only considers the contribution of the linear terms to improving the model’s performance, which will lead to poor forecasting results because of the significance of the neglected and potential nonlinear terms. In this paper, a novel nonlinear combined forecasting system, which consists of three modules (improved data pre-processing module, forecasting module and the evaluation module is developed for short-term load forecasting. Different from the simple data pre-processing of most previous studies, the improved data pre-processing module based on longitudinal data selection is successfully developed in this system, which further improves the effectiveness of data pre-processing and then enhances the final forecasting performance. Furthermore, the modified support vector machine is developed to integrate all the individual predictors and obtain the final prediction, which successfully overcomes the upper drawbacks of the linear combined model. Moreover, the evaluation module is incorporated to perform a scientific evaluation for the developed system. The half-hourly electrical load data from New South Wales are employed to verify the effectiveness of the developed forecasting system, and the results reveal that the developed nonlinear forecasting system can be employed in the dispatching and planning for smart grids.

  3. Necessary conditions for the homogeneous formation of a volume avalanche discharge with specific applications to rare gas-halide excimer laser discharges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levatter, J.I.

    1979-01-01

    Self-sustained/avalanche discharges are an efficient method of rare gas-halide excimer laser excitation in small systems. However, with the exceptions of the work reported here, experiments attempting to increase the laser energy output by scaling up the discharge volume and/or pulse duration have not been successful. The major problem encountered in scaling experiments has been the formation of arc channels in the discharge volume. The presence of arcing can totally disrupt proper laser operation. This problem stems from a general lack of understanding of high pressure avalanche discharge phenomena. Therefore, clarifying the basic discharge formation process and establishing a set of criteria under which a homogeneous avalanche discharge can be obtained is of central importance in defining the scaling limits of avalanche discharge lasers. The work presented here reviews the phenomena involved in high E/n (electric field to gas number density ratio) breakdown and its relationship to the formation of spatially homogeneous discharges. This relationship was first explored by A.J. Palmer in 1974. The basic requirement of his model was that the preionization density be large enough to cause an appreciable overlap of the primary electron avalanches and hence smooth out the ensuing space-charge fields to the extent that individual streamer formation would be prevented. This is the same basic model used in the more detailed discharge formation analysis developed here except that the effects of a time varying electric field caused by a finite voltage rise time and the effects due to the various electrochemical properties of the gas mixture are property taken into consideration

  4. Cosmic Ray Measurements by Scintillators with Metal Resistor Semiconductor Avalanche Photo Diodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanco, Francesco; La Rocca, Paola; Riggi, Francesco; Akindinov, Alexandre; Mal'kevich, Dmitry

    2008-01-01

    An educational set-up for cosmic ray physics experiments is described. The detector is based on scintillator tiles with a readout through metal resistor semiconductor (MRS) avalanche photo diode (APD) arrays. Typical measurements of the cosmic angular distribution at sea level and a study of the East-West asymmetry obtained by such a device are…

  5. Olympic games in Sochi, comparison and forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Kudrina, Anastasia

    2015-01-01

    Title: Olympic Games in Sochi, comparison and prediction Goals: Based on a research of the Olympic Games in Sochi to create a forecast of future economic effects on the territorium Method: The prediction is based on the analogic situation in other countries that held the Olympic Games in the past. Induction method of representing the thought process, during which the individual facts formulate more general assertions and theories; deduction method, which are derived from the general conclusio...

  6. Kinetic modelling of runaway electron avalanches in tokamak plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nilsson, E; Peysson, Y; Saint-Laurent, F; Decker, J; Granetz, R S; Vlainic, M

    2015-01-01

    Runaway electrons can be generated in tokamak plasmas if the accelerating force from the toroidal electric field exceeds the collisional drag force owing to Coulomb collisions with the background plasma. In ITER, disruptions are expected to generate runaway electrons mainly through knock-on collisions (Hender et al 2007 Nucl. Fusion 47 S128–202), where enough momentum can be transferred from existing runaways to slow electrons to transport the latter beyond a critical momentum, setting off an avalanche of runaway electrons. Since knock-on runaways are usually scattered off with a significant perpendicular component of the momentum with respect to the local magnetic field direction, these particles are highly magnetized. Consequently, the momentum dynamics require a full 3D kinetic description, since these electrons are highly sensitive to the magnetic non-uniformity of a toroidal configuration. For this purpose, a bounce-averaged knock-on source term is derived. The generation of runaway electrons from the combined effect of Dreicer mechanism and knock-on collision process is studied with the code LUKE, a solver of the 3D linearized bounce-averaged relativistic electron Fokker–Planck equation (Decker and Peysson 2004 DKE: a fast numerical solver for the 3D drift kinetic equation Report EUR-CEA-FC-1736, Euratom-CEA), through the calculation of the response of the electron distribution function to a constant parallel electric field. The model, which has been successfully benchmarked against the standard Dreicer runaway theory now describes the runaway generation by knock-on collisions as proposed by Rosenbluth (Rosenbluth and Putvinski 1997 Nucl. Fusion 37 1355–62). This paper shows that the avalanche effect can be important even in non-disruptive scenarios. Runaway formation through knock-on collisions is found to be strongly reduced when taking place off the magnetic axis, since trapped electrons can not contribute to the runaway electron population. Finally

  7. Solar photovoltaic power forecasting using optimized modified extreme learning machine technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manoja Kumar Behera

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of photovoltaic power is a significant research area using different forecasting techniques mitigating the effects of the uncertainty of the photovoltaic generation. Increasingly high penetration level of photovoltaic (PV generation arises in smart grid and microgrid concept. Solar source is irregular in nature as a result PV power is intermittent and is highly dependent on irradiance, temperature level and other atmospheric parameters. Large scale photovoltaic generation and penetration to the conventional power system introduces the significant challenges to microgrid a smart grid energy management. It is very critical to do exact forecasting of solar power/irradiance in order to secure the economic operation of the microgrid and smart grid. In this paper an extreme learning machine (ELM technique is used for PV power forecasting of a real time model whose location is given in the Table 1. Here the model is associated with the incremental conductance (IC maximum power point tracking (MPPT technique that is based on proportional integral (PI controller which is simulated in MATLAB/SIMULINK software. To train single layer feed-forward network (SLFN, ELM algorithm is implemented whose weights are updated by different particle swarm optimization (PSO techniques and their performance are compared with existing models like back propagation (BP forecasting model. Keywords: PV array, Extreme learning machine, Maximum power point tracking, Particle swarm optimization, Craziness particle swarm optimization, Accelerate particle swarm optimization, Single layer feed-forward network

  8. The use of economic forecasts in Danish economic policy, with special emphasis on energy and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, Lise

    1998-01-01

    This article discusses the use of economic forecasts in Danish economic policy, with special emphasis on energy and the environment. Two different approaches have been used to forecast energy consumption and its effects on environment in Denmark and other countries. These are the macro economic and the technical approaches. The technical approach is based on technical expertise related to energy production and energy consumption, and the article asks whether the forecasts produced by this approach are superior to macro economic forecasts of energy consumption. This question is interesting because the implications for policy resulting from the two approaches seem to be different. The analysis may have relevance to other areas outside the main economic field. (au) 22 refs

  9. The parallel plate avalanche counter: a simple, rugged, imaging X-ray counter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joensen, K.D.; Budtz-Joergensen, C.; Bahnsen, A.; Madsen, M.M.; Olesen, C.; Schnopper, H.W.

    1995-01-01

    A two-dimensional parallel gap proportional counter has been developed at the Danish Space Research Institute. Imaging over the 120 mm diameter active area is obtained using the positive ion component of the avalanche signals as recorded by a system of wedge- and strip-electrodes. An electronically simple, but very effective background rejection is obtained by using the fast electron component of the avalanche signal. Gas gains up to 8x10 5 have been achieved. An energy-resolution of 16% and a sub-millimeter spatial resolution have been measured at 5.9 keV for an operating gas gain of 10 5 . In principle, the position coordinates are linear functions of electronic readouts. The present model, however, exhibits non-linearities, caused by imperfections in the wedge and strip-electrode pattern. These non-linearities are corrected by using a bilinear correction algorithm. We conclude that the rugged construction, the simple electronics, the effectiveness of the background rejection and the actual imaging performance makes this a very attractive laboratory detector for low and intermediate count rate imaging applications. ((orig.))

  10. An accurate behavioral model for single-photon avalanche diode statistical performance simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yue; Zhao, Tingchen; Li, Ding

    2018-01-01

    An accurate behavioral model is presented to simulate important statistical performance of single-photon avalanche diodes (SPADs), such as dark count and after-pulsing noise. The derived simulation model takes into account all important generation mechanisms of the two kinds of noise. For the first time, thermal agitation, trap-assisted tunneling and band-to-band tunneling mechanisms are simultaneously incorporated in the simulation model to evaluate dark count behavior of SPADs fabricated in deep sub-micron CMOS technology. Meanwhile, a complete carrier trapping and de-trapping process is considered in afterpulsing model and a simple analytical expression is derived to estimate after-pulsing probability. In particular, the key model parameters of avalanche triggering probability and electric field dependence of excess bias voltage are extracted from Geiger-mode TCAD simulation and this behavioral simulation model doesn't include any empirical parameters. The developed SPAD model is implemented in Verilog-A behavioral hardware description language and successfully operated on commercial Cadence Spectre simulator, showing good universality and compatibility. The model simulation results are in a good accordance with the test data, validating high simulation accuracy.

  11. Supershort avalanche electron beam in SF_{6} and krypton

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng Zhang (章程

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Runaway electrons play an important role in the avalanche formation in nanosecond- and subnanosecond- pulse discharges. In this paper, characteristics of a supershort avalanche electron beam (SAEB generated at the subnanosecond and nanosecond breakdown in sulfur hexafluoride (SF_{6} in an inhomogeneous electric field were studied. One pulser operated at negative polarity with voltage pulse amplitude of ∼130  kV and rise time of 0.3 ns. The other pulser operated at negative polarity with voltage pulse amplitude of 70 kV and rise time of ∼1.6  ns. SAEB parameters in SF_{6} are compared with those obtained in krypton (Kr, nitrogen (N_{2}, air, and mixtures of SF_{6} with krypton or nitrogen. Experimental results showed that SAEB currents appeared during the rise-time of the voltage pulse for both pulsers. Moreover, amplitudes of the SAEB current in SF_{6} and Kr approximately ranged from several to tens of milliamps at atmospheric pressure, which were smaller than those in N_{2} and air (ranging from hundreds of milliamps to several amperes. Furthermore, the concentration of SF_{6} additive could significantly reduce the SAEB current in N_{2}-SF_{6} mixture, but it slightly affected the SAEB current in Kr-SF_{6} mixture because of the atomic/molecular ionization cross section of the gas had a much greater impact on the SAEB current rather than the electronegativity.

  12. Predicting the Evolution of CO2 Emissions in Bahrain with Automated Forecasting Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiana Tudor

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The 2012 Doha meeting established the continuation of the Kyoto protocol, the legally-binding global agreement under which signatory countries had agreed to reduce their carbon emissions. Contrary to this assumed obligation, all G20 countries with the exception of France and the UK saw significant increases in their CO2 emissions over the last 25 years, surpassing 300% in the case of China. This paper attempts to forecast the evolution of carbon dioxide emissions in Bahrain over the 2012–2021 decade by employing seven Automated Forecasting Methods, including the exponential smoothing state space model (ETS, the Holt–Winters Model, the BATS/TBATS model, ARIMA, the structural time series model (STS, the naive model, and the neural network time series forecasting method (NNAR. Results indicate a reversal of the current decreasing trend of pollution in the country, with a point estimate of 2309 metric tons per capita at the end of 2020 and 2317 at the end of 2021, as compared to the 1934 level achieved in 2010. The country’s baseline level corresponding to year 1990 (as specified by the Doha amendment of the Kyoto protocol is approximately 25.54 metric tons per capita, which implies a maximum level of 20.96 metric tons per capita for the year 2020 (corresponding to a decrease of 18% relative to the baseline level in order for Bahrain to comply with the protocol. Our results therefore suggest that Bahrain cannot meet its assumed target.

  13. Single photon detection in a waveguide-coupled Ge-on-Si lateral avalanche photodiode.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Nicholas J D; Gehl, Michael; Derose, Christopher T; Starbuck, Andrew L; Pomerene, Andrew T; Lentine, Anthony L; Trotter, Douglas C; Davids, Paul S

    2017-07-10

    We examine gated-Geiger mode operation of an integrated waveguide-coupled Ge-on-Si lateral avalanche photodiode (APD) and demonstrate single photon detection at low dark count for this mode of operation. Our integrated waveguide-coupled APD is fabricated using a selective epitaxial Ge-on-Si growth process resulting in a separate absorption and charge multiplication (SACM) design compatible with our silicon photonics platform. Single photon detection efficiency and dark count rate is measured as a function of temperature in order to understand and optimize performance characteristics in this device. We report single photon detection of 5.27% at 1310 nm and a dark count rate of 534 kHz at 80 K for a Ge-on-Si single photon avalanche diode. Dark count rate is the lowest for a Ge-on-Si single photon detector in this range of temperatures while maintaining competitive detection efficiency. A jitter of 105 ps was measured for this device.

  14. Increasing rock-avalanche size and mobility in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Alaska detected from 1984 to 2016 Landsat imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coe, Jeffrey A.; Bessette-Kirton, Erin; Geertsema, Marten

    2018-01-01

    In the USA, climate change is expected to have an adverse impact on slope stability in Alaska. However, to date, there has been limited work done in Alaska to assess if changes in slope stability are occurring. To address this issue, we used 30-m Landsat imagery acquired from 1984 to 2016 to establish an inventory of 24 rock avalanches in a 5000-km2 area of Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve in southeast Alaska. A search of available earthquake catalogs revealed that none of the avalanches were triggered by earthquakes. Analyses of rock-avalanche magnitude, mobility, and frequency reveal a cluster of large (areas ranging from 5.5 to 22.2 km2), highly mobile (height/length slopes for failure during periods of warm temperatures.

  15. Memory effect in gated single-photon avalanche diodes: a limiting noise contribution similar to afterpulsing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contini, D.; Dalla Mora, A.; Di Sieno, L.; Cubeddu, R.; Tosi, A.; Boso, G.; Pifferi, A.

    2013-03-01

    In recent years, emerging applications, such as diffuse optical imaging and spectroscopy (e.g., functional brain imaging and optical mammography), in which a wide dynamic range is crucial, have turned the interest towards Single-Photon Avalanche Diode (SPAD). In these fields, the use of a fast-gated SPAD has proven to be a successful technique to increase the measurement sensitivity of different orders of magnitude. However, an unknown background noise has been observed at high illumination during the gate-OFF time, thus setting a limit to the maximum increase of the dynamic range. In this paper we describe this noise in thin-junction silicon single-photon avalanche diode when a large amount of photons reaches the gated detector during the OFF time preceding the enabling time. This memory effect increases the background noise with respect to primary dark count rate similarly to a classical afterpulsing process, but differently it is not related to a previous avalanche ignition in the detector. We discovered that memory effect increases linearly with the power of light impinging on the detector and it has an exponential trend with time constants far different from those of afterpulsing and independently of the bias voltage applied to the junction. For these reasons, the memory effect is not due to the same trapping states of afterpulsing and must be described as a different process.

  16. Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barghouty, Nasser; Falconer, David

    2015-01-01

    Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

  17. Medium Range Forecasts Representation (and Long Range Forecasts?)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincendon, J.-C.

    2009-09-01

    The progress of the numerical forecasts urges us to interest us in more and more distant ranges. We thus supply more and more forecasts with term of some days. Nevertheless, precautions of use are necessary to give the most reliable and the most relevant possible information. Available in a TV bulletin or on quite other support (Internet, mobile phone), the interpretation and the representation of a medium range forecast (5 - 15 days) must be different from those of a short range forecast. Indeed, the "foresee-ability” of a meteorological phenomenon decreases gradually in the course of the ranges, it decreases all the more quickly that the phenomenon is of small scale. So, at the end of some days, the probability character of a forecast becomes very widely dominating. That is why in Meteo-France the forecasts of D+4 to D+7 are accompanied with a confidence index since around ten years. It is a figure between 1 and 5: the more we approach 5, the more the confidence in the supplied forecast is good. In the practice, an indication is supplied for period D+4 / D+5, the other one for period D+6 / D+7, every day being able to benefit from a different forecast, that is be represented in a independent way. We thus supply a global tendency over 24 hours with less and less precise symbols as the range goes away. Concrete examples will be presented. From now on two years, we also publish forecasts to D+8 / J+9, accompanied with a sign of confidence (" good reliability " or " to confirm "). These two days are grouped together on a single map because for us, the described tendency to this term is relevant on a duration about 48 hours with a spatial scale slightly superior to the synoptic scale. So, we avoid producing more than two zones of types of weather over France and we content with giving an evolution for the temperatures (still, in increase or in decline). Newspapers began to publish this information, it should soon be the case of televisions. It is particularly

  18. Ensemble forecasting for renewable energy applications - status and current challenges for their generation and verification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinson, Pierre

    2016-04-01

    The operational management of renewable energy generation in power systems and electricity markets requires forecasts in various forms, e.g., deterministic or probabilistic, continuous or categorical, depending upon the decision process at hand. Besides, such forecasts may also be necessary at various spatial and temporal scales, from high temporal resolutions (in the order of minutes) and very localized for an offshore wind farm, to coarser temporal resolutions (hours) and covering a whole country for day-ahead power scheduling problems. As of today, weather predictions are a common input to forecasting methodologies for renewable energy generation. Since for most decision processes, optimal decisions can only be made if accounting for forecast uncertainties, ensemble predictions and density forecasts are increasingly seen as the product of choice. After discussing some of the basic approaches to obtaining ensemble forecasts of renewable power generation, it will be argued that space-time trajectories of renewable power production may or may not be necessitate post-processing ensemble forecasts for relevant weather variables. Example approaches and test case applications will be covered, e.g., looking at the Horns Rev offshore wind farm in Denmark, or gridded forecasts for the whole continental Europe. Eventually, we will illustrate some of the limitations of current frameworks to forecast verification, which actually make it difficult to fully assess the quality of post-processing approaches to obtain renewable energy predictions.

  19. The strategy of professional forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2006-01-01

    We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...... contest with pre-specified rules. In a winner-take-all contest, equilibrium forecasts are excessively differentiated...

  20. The Value, Protocols, and Scientific Ethics of Earthquake Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Thomas H.

    2013-04-01

    provide public sources of information on short-term probabilities that are authoritative, scientific, open, and timely. Alert procedures should be negotiated with end-users to facilitate decisions at different levels of society, based in part on objective analysis of costs and benefits but also on less tangible aspects of value-of-information, such as gains in psychological preparedness and resilience. Unfortunately, in most countries, operational forecasting systems do not conform to such high standards, and earthquake scientists are often called upon to advise the public in roles that exceed their civic authority, expertise in risk communication, and situational knowledge. Certain ethical principles are well established; e.g., announcing unreliable predictions in public forums should be avoided, because bad information can be dangerous. But what are the professional responsibilities of earthquake scientists during seismic crises, especially when the public information through official channels is thought to be inadequate or incorrect? How much should these responsibilities be discounted in the face of personal liability? How should scientists contend with highly uncertain forecasts? To what degree should the public be involved in controversies about forecasting results? No simple answers to these questions can be offered, but the need for answers can be reduced by improving operational forecasting systems. This will require more substantial, and more trustful, collaborations between scientists, civil authorities, and public stakeholders.

  1. Tuning magnetic avalanches in the molecular magnet Mn12 -acetate

    Science.gov (United States)

    McHugh, S.; Wen, Bo; Ma, Xiang; Sarachik, M. P.; Myasoedov, Y.; Zeldov, E.; Bagai, R.; Christou, G.

    2009-05-01

    Using micron-sized Hall sensor arrays to obtain time-resolved measurements of the local magnetization, we report a systematic study in the molecular magnet Mn12 acetate of magnetic avalanches controllably triggered in different fixed external magnetic fields and for different values of the initial magnetization. The speeds of propagation of the spin-reversal fronts are in good overall agreement with the theory of magnetic deflagration of Garanin and Chudnovsky [Phys. Rev. B 76, 054410 (2007)].

  2. Modeling and forecasting of electrical power demands for capacity planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Shobaki, S.; Mohsen, M.

    2007-01-01

    Jordan imports oil from neighboring countries for use in power production. As such, the cost of electricity production is high compared to oil producing countries. It is anticipated that Jordan will face major challenges in trying to meet the growing energy and electricity demands while also developing the energy sector in a way that reduces any adverse impacts on the economy, the environment and social life. This paper described the development of forecasting models to predict future generation and sales loads of electrical power in Jordan. Two models that could be used for the prediction of electrical energy demand in Amman, Jordan were developed and validated. An analysis of the data was also presented. The first model was based on the levels of energy generated by the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) and the other was based on the levels of energy sold by the company in the same area. The models were compared and the percent error was presented. Energy demand was also forecasted across the next 60 months for both models. Results were then compared with the output of the in-house forecast model used by NEPCO to predict the levels of generated energy needed across the 60 months time period. It was concluded that the NEPCO model predicted energy demand higher than the validated generated data model by an average of 5.25 per cent. 8 refs., 5 tabs., 15 figs

  3. Modeling and forecasting of electrical power demands for capacity planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Shobaki, S. [Hashemite Univ., Zarka (Jordan). Dept. of Industrial Engineering; Mohsen, M. [Hashemite Univ., Zarka (Jordan). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2007-07-01

    Jordan imports oil from neighboring countries for use in power production. As such, the cost of electricity production is high compared to oil producing countries. It is anticipated that Jordan will face major challenges in trying to meet the growing energy and electricity demands while also developing the energy sector in a way that reduces any adverse impacts on the economy, the environment and social life. This paper described the development of forecasting models to predict future generation and sales loads of electrical power in Jordan. Two models that could be used for the prediction of electrical energy demand in Amman, Jordan were developed and validated. An analysis of the data was also presented. The first model was based on the levels of energy generated by the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) and the other was based on the levels of energy sold by the company in the same area. The models were compared and the percent error was presented. Energy demand was also forecasted across the next 60 months for both models. Results were then compared with the output of the in-house forecast model used by NEPCO to predict the levels of generated energy needed across the 60 months time period. It was concluded that the NEPCO model predicted energy demand higher than the validated generated data model by an average of 5.25 per cent. 8 refs., 5 tabs., 15 figs.

  4. An Innovative Hybrid Model Based on Data Pre-Processing and Modified Optimization Algorithm and Its Application in Wind Speed Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping Jiang

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Wind speed forecasting has an unsuperseded function in the high-efficiency operation of wind farms, and is significant in wind-related engineering studies. Back-propagation (BP algorithms have been comprehensively employed to forecast time series that are nonlinear, irregular, and unstable. However, the single model usually overlooks the importance of data pre-processing and parameter optimization of the model, which results in weak forecasting performance. In this paper, a more precise and robust model that combines data pre-processing, BP neural network, and a modified artificial intelligence optimization algorithm was proposed, which succeeded in avoiding the limitations of the individual algorithm. The novel model not only improves the forecasting accuracy but also retains the advantages of the firefly algorithm (FA and overcomes the disadvantage of the FA while optimizing in the later stage. To verify the forecasting performance of the presented hybrid model, 10-min wind speed data from Penglai city, Shandong province, China, were analyzed in this study. The simulations revealed that the proposed hybrid model significantly outperforms other single metaheuristics.

  5. Are Forecast Updates Progressive?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractMacro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average,

  6. Hybrid model for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and salendar variation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhartono; Rahayu, S. P.; Prastyo, D. D.; Wijayanti, D. G. P.; Juliyanto

    2017-09-01

    Most of the monthly time series data in economics and business in Indonesia and other Moslem countries not only contain trend and seasonal, but also affected by two types of calendar variation effects, i.e. the effect of the number of working days or trading and holiday effects. The purpose of this research is to develop a hybrid model or a combination of several forecasting models to predict time series that contain trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. This hybrid model is a combination of classical models (namely time series regression and ARIMA model) and/or modern methods (artificial intelligence method, i.e. Artificial Neural Networks). A simulation study was used to show that the proposed procedure for building the hybrid model could work well for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. Furthermore, the proposed hybrid model is applied for forecasting real data, i.e. monthly data about inflow and outflow of currency at Bank Indonesia. The results show that the hybrid model tend to provide more accurate forecasts than individual forecasting models. Moreover, this result is also in line with the third results of the M3 competition, i.e. the hybrid model on average provides a more accurate forecast than the individual model.

  7. Analyzing and forecasting the European social climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liliana DUGULEANĂ

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper uses the results of the sample survey Eurobarometer, which has been requested by the European Commission. The social climate index is used to measure the level of perceptions of population by taking into account their personal situation and their perspective at national level. The paper makes an analysis of the evolution of social climate indices for the countries of European Union and offers information about the expectations of population of analyzed countries. The obtained results can be compared with the forecasting of Eurobarometer, on short term of one year and medium term of five years. Modelling the social climate index and its influence factors offers useful information about the efficiency of social protection and inclusion policies.

  8. Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: A comparison of ten principal component methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Lin Shang

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Using the age- and sex-specific data of 14 developed countries, we compare the point and interval forecast accuracy and bias of ten principal component methods for forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy. The ten methods are variants and extensions of the Lee-Carter method. Based on one-step forecast errors, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate point forecasts of mortality rates and the Lee-Miller method is the least biased. For the accuracy and bias of life expectancy, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method performs the best for female mortality and the Lee-Miller method for male mortality. While all methods underestimate variability in mortality rates, the more complex Hyndman-Ullah methods are more accurate than the simpler methods. The weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate interval forecasts for mortality rates, while the robust Hyndman-Ullah method provides the best interval forecast accuracy for life expectancy.

  9. Short term load forecasting using neuro-fuzzy networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffman, M.; Hassan, A. [South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD (United States); Martinez, D. [Black Hills Power and Light, Rapid City, SD (United States)

    2005-07-01

    Details of a neuro-fuzzy network-based short term load forecasting system for power utilities were presented. The fuzzy logic controller was used to fuzzify inputs representing historical temperature and load curves. The fuzzified inputs were then used to develop the fuzzy rules matrix. Output membership function values were determined by evaluating the fuzzified inputs with the fuzzy rules. Output membership function values were used as inputs for the neural network portion of the system. The training process used a back propagation gradient descent algorithm to adjust the weight values of the neural network in order to reduce the error between the neural network output and the desired output. The neural network was then used to predict future load values. Sample data were taken from a local power company's daily load curve to validate the system. A 10 per cent forecast error was introduced in the temperature values to determine the effect on load prediction. Results of the study suggest that the combined use of fuzzy logic and neural networks provide greater accuracy than studies where either approach is used alone. 6 refs., 6 figs.

  10. Avalanche criticality in thermal-driven martensitic transitions: the asymmetry of the forward and reverse transitions in shape-memory materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Planes, Antoni; Vives, Eduard

    2017-08-01

    Martensitic transitions take place intermittently as a sequence of avalanches which are accompanied by the emission of acoustic waves. The study of this acoustic emission (AE) reveals the scale-free nature of the avalanches. In a number of shape memory materials undergoing a martensitic transition it has been found that, in spite of relatively low hysteresis, the dynamics of forward and reverse transitions are different, which may explain the fact that the AE activity is different in both forward and reverse transitions. The asymmetry could be a consequence of the fact that, while nucleation is required for the transition from the parent to martensitic phase to take place, reverse transition occurs by fast shrinkage of martensitic domains. We have analysed in detail the distribution of avalanches in cooling and heating runs in Fe-Pd and Cu-Zn-Al shape-memory alloys. In the former, the martensitic transition is weakly first order while it shows a significant first order character in the latter. We have found that in Fe-Pd the distributions are power law for the forward and reverse transitions characterized by the same critical exponents. For Cu-Zn-Al the distribution of avalanches is critical in forward transitions but exponentially damped in the reverse transition. It is suggested that this different behaviour could originate from the different dynamic mechanisms in forward and reverse transitions. This paper is dedicated to our friend Ekhard Salje in the occasion of his 70th birthday.

  11. Mid-term load forecasting of power systems by a new prediction method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amjady, Nima; Keynia, Farshid

    2008-01-01

    Mid-term load forecasting (MTLF) becomes an essential tool for today power systems, mainly in those countries whose power systems operate in a deregulated environment. Among different kinds of MTLF, this paper focuses on the prediction of daily peak load for one month ahead. This kind of load forecast has many applications like maintenance scheduling, mid-term hydro thermal coordination, adequacy assessment, management of limited energy units, negotiation of forward contracts, and development of cost efficient fuel purchasing strategies. However, daily peak load is a nonlinear, volatile, and nonstationary signal. Besides, lack of sufficient data usually further complicates this problem. The paper proposes a new methodology to solve it, composed of an efficient data model, preforecast mechanism and combination of neural network and evolutionary algorithm as the hybrid forecast technique. The proposed methodology is examined on the EUropean Network on Intelligent TEchnologies (EUNITE) test data and Iran's power system. We will also compare our strategy with the other MTLF methods revealing its capability to solve this load forecast problem

  12. Portals for Real-Time Earthquake Data and Forecasting: Challenge and Promise (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Feltstykket, R.; Donnellan, A.; Glasscoe, M. T.

    2013-12-01

    Earthquake forecasts have been computed by a variety of countries world-wide for over two decades. For the most part, forecasts have been computed for insurance, reinsurance and underwriters of catastrophe bonds. However, recent events clearly demonstrate that mitigating personal risk is becoming the responsibility of individual members of the public. Open access to a variety of web-based forecasts, tools, utilities and information is therefore required. Portals for data and forecasts present particular challenges, and require the development of both apps and the client/server architecture to deliver the basic information in real time. The basic forecast model we consider is the Natural Time Weibull (NTW) method (JBR et al., Phys. Rev. E, 86, 021106, 2012). This model uses small earthquakes (';seismicity-based models') to forecast the occurrence of large earthquakes, via data-mining algorithms combined with the ANSS earthquake catalog. This method computes large earthquake probabilities using the number of small earthquakes that have occurred in a region since the last large earthquake. Localizing these forecasts in space so that global forecasts can be computed in real time presents special algorithmic challenges, which we describe in this talk. Using 25 years of data from the ANSS California-Nevada catalog of earthquakes, we compute real-time global forecasts at a grid scale of 0.1o. We analyze and monitor the performance of these models using the standard tests, which include the Reliability/Attributes and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) tests. It is clear from much of the analysis that data quality is a major limitation on the accurate computation of earthquake probabilities. We discuss the challenges of serving up these datasets over the web on web-based platforms such as those at www.quakesim.org , www.e-decider.org , and www.openhazards.com.

  13. Load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mak, H.

    1995-01-01

    Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

  14. Relating Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error Distributions with Measurements of Forecast Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY by Nicholas M. Chisler March 2016 Thesis Advisor...March 2016 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE RELATING TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS...WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Nicholas M. Chisler 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES

  15. FORECASTING TOURIST ARRIVALS TO LANGKAWI ISLAND MALAYSIA

    OpenAIRE

    Kamarul Ariffin MANSOR; Wan Irham ISHAK

    2015-01-01

    Tourism is the act of travelling for a person or group of people from their own locality to a specific destination in a short term or long term period either for leisure or business purposes. Tourism is an important sector in the Malaysian economy where tourism development will lead to the positive economic development of the country and in general improve the quality of life for all citizens. Therefore, forecasting tourist arrivals with high accuracy becomes important since it may ensure t...

  16. LOCAL CONDITIONS AND IMPACTS OF THE AVALANCHES. CASE STUDIES IN REPRESENTATIVE SECTORS WITHIN PIATRA CRAIULUI AND FĂGĂRAȘ MOUNTAINS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ANCA MUNTEANU

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Genesis conditions and effects of avalanches. Case studies in representative sectors within Piatra Craiului and Fagars mountains. The present paper aims at investigating the avalanches and their impact on the environment components. Snow avalanches are natural phenomena, which are controlled by the specific features of the mountain realm. They start suddenly due to the combination of meteorological and non-meteorological factors, which make the loose materials (snow, ice, detritus, vegetation or soil collapse or slide down along the slope. In consequence, erosion is increased or facilitated because of the impact they have on the other components of the environment (thalwegs deepening, forest destruction. The distribution of avalanches is hard to be highlighted, because of the inaccessible lands and the adverse meteorological conditions. From this reason, one needs to know their complex features, namely the morphology, vegetation and spatial dynamics of the areas prone to such phenomena. The effects on the environment can be easily identified in the mountain realm, inasmuch as they create typical corridors along the streams crossing the forests. At the same time, however, they have certain effects on the slope deposits, too. These will be further presented with examples for the eastern slope of the Piatra Craiului Mts. and the Suru – Negoiu section in the Făgăraș Mts. These areas are deemed representative for each of the mentioned mountain massifs.

  17. The Joint Action on Health Workforce Planning and Forecasting: Results of a European programme to improve health workforce policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroezen, Marieke; Van Hoegaerden, Michel; Batenburg, Ronald

    2018-02-01

    Health workforce (HWF) planning and forecasting is faced with a number of challenges, most notably a lack of consistent terminology, a lack of data, limited model-, demand-based- and future-based planning, and limited inter-country collaboration. The Joint Action on Health Workforce Planning and Forecasting (JAHWF, 2013-2016) aimed to move forward on the HWF planning process and support countries in tackling the key challenges facing the HWF and HWF planning. This paper synthesizes and discusses the results of the JAHWF. It is shown that the JAHWF has provided important steps towards improved HWF planning and forecasting across Europe, among others through the creation of a minimum data set for HWF planning and the 'Handbook on Health Workforce Planning Methodologies across EU countries'. At the same time, the context-sensitivity of HWF planning was repeatedly noticeable in the application of the tools through pilot- and feasibility studies. Further investments should be made by all actors involved to support and stimulate countries in their HWF efforts, among others by implementing the tools developed by the JAHWF in diverse national and regional contexts. Simultaneously, investments should be made in evaluation to build a more robust evidence base for HWF planning methods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. What low back pain is and why we need to pay attention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartvigsen, Jan; Hancock, Mark J; Kongsted, Alice

    2018-01-01

    Low back pain is a very common symptom. It occurs in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries and all age groups from children to the elderly population. Globally, years lived with disability caused by low back pain increased by 54% between 1990 and 2015, mainly because of population ...

  19. Econometric Forecasting Models for Air Traffic Passenger of Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Suryan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the major benefits of the air transport services operating in bigger countries is the fact that they provide a vital social economic linkage. This study is an attempt to establish the determinants of the passenger air traffic in Indonesia. The main objective of the study is to determine the economic variables that affect the number of airline passengers using the econometrics model of projection with an emphasis on the use of panel data and to determine the economic variables that affect the number of airline passengers using the econometrics model of projection with an emphasis on the use of time series data. This research also predicts the upcoming number of air traffic passenger until 2030. Air transportation and the economic activity in a country are interdependent. This work first uses the data at the country level and then at the selected airport level for review. The methodology used in this study has adopted the study for both normal regression and panel data regression techniques. Once all these steps are performed, the final equation is taken up for the forecast of the passenger inflow data in the Indonesian airports. To forecast the same, the forecasted numbers of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product and population (independent variables were chosen as a part of the literature review exercise are used. The result of this study shows the GDP per capita have significant related to a number of passengers which the elasticity 2.23 (time-series data and 1.889 for panel data. The exchange rate variable is unrelated to a number of passengers as shown in the value of elasticity. In addition, the total of population gives small value for the elasticity. Moreover, the number of passengers is also affected by the dummy variable (deregulation. With three scenarios: low, medium and high for GDP per capita, the percentage of growth for total number of air traffic passenger from the year 2015 to 2030 is 199.3%, 205.7%, and 320.9% respectively.

  20. Advanced Intelligent System Application to Load Forecasting and Control for Hybrid Electric Bus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Momoh, James; Chattopadhyay, Deb; Elfayoumy, Mahmoud

    1996-01-01

    The primary motivation for this research emanates from providing a decision support system to the electric bus operators in the municipal and urban localities which will guide the operators to maintain an optimal compromise among the noise level, pollution level, fuel usage etc. This study is backed up by our previous studies on study of battery characteristics, permanent magnet DC motor studies and electric traction motor size studies completed in the first year. The operator of the Hybrid Electric Car must determine optimal power management schedule to meet a given load demand for different weather and road conditions. The decision support system for the bus operator comprises three sub-tasks viz. forecast of the electrical load for the route to be traversed divided into specified time periods (few minutes); deriving an optimal 'plan' or 'preschedule' based on the load forecast for the entire time-horizon (i.e., for all time periods) ahead of time; and finally employing corrective control action to monitor and modify the optimal plan in real-time. A fully connected artificial neural network (ANN) model is developed for forecasting the kW requirement for hybrid electric bus based on inputs like climatic conditions, passenger load, road inclination, etc. The ANN model is trained using back-propagation algorithm employing improved optimization techniques like projected Lagrangian technique. The pre-scheduler is based on a Goal-Programming (GP) optimization model with noise, pollution and fuel usage as the three objectives. GP has the capability of analyzing the trade-off among the conflicting objectives and arriving at the optimal activity levels, e.g., throttle settings. The corrective control action or the third sub-task is formulated as an optimal control model with inputs from the real-time data base as well as the GP model to minimize the error (or deviation) from the optimal plan. These three activities linked with the ANN forecaster proving the output to the

  1. Grey Forecast Rainfall with Flow Updating Algorithm for Real-Time Flood Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jui-Yi Ho

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic relationship between watershed characteristics and rainfall-runoff has been widely studied in recent decades. Since watershed rainfall-runoff is a non-stationary process, most deterministic flood forecasting approaches are ineffective without the assistance of adaptive algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to propose an effective flow forecasting system that integrates a rainfall forecasting model, watershed runoff model, and real-time updating algorithm. This study adopted a grey rainfall forecasting technique, based on existing hourly rainfall data. A geomorphology-based runoff model can be used for simulating impacts of the changing geo-climatic conditions on the hydrologic response of unsteady and non-linear watershed system, and flow updating algorithm were combined to estimate watershed runoff according to measured flow data. The proposed flood forecasting system was applied to three watersheds; one in the United States and two in Northern Taiwan. Four sets of rainfall-runoff simulations were performed to test the accuracy of the proposed flow forecasting technique. The results indicated that the forecast and observed hydrographs are in good agreement for all three watersheds. The proposed flow forecasting system could assist authorities in minimizing loss of life and property during flood events.

  2. Improved El Nino forecasting by cooperativity detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludescher, Josef; Gozolchiani, Avi; Bogachev, Mikhail I; Bunde, Armin; Havlin, Shlomo; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

    2013-07-16

    Although anomalous episodic warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific, dubbed El Niño by Peruvian fishermen, has major (and occasionally devastating) impacts around the globe, robust forecasting is still limited to about 6 mo ahead. A significant extension of the prewarning time would be instrumental for avoiding some of the worst damages such as harvest failures in developing countries. Here we introduce a unique avenue toward El Niño prediction based on network methods, inspecting emerging teleconnections. Our approach starts from the evidence that a large-scale cooperative mode--linking the El Niño basin (equatorial Pacific corridor) and the rest of the ocean--builds up in the calendar year before the warming event. On this basis, we can develop an efficient 12-mo forecasting scheme, i.e., achieve some doubling of the early-warning period. Our method is based on high-quality observational data available since 1950 and yields hit rates above 0.5, whereas false-alarm rates are below 0.1.

  3. FORECASTING TOURIST ARRIVALS TO LANGKAWI ISLAND MALAYSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamarul Ariffin MANSOR

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Tourism is the act of travelling for a person or group of people from their own locality to a specific destination in a short term or long term period either for leisure or business purposes. Tourism is an important sector in the Malaysian economy where tourism development will lead to the positive economic development of the country and in general improve the quality of life for all citizens. Therefore, forecasting tourist arrivals with high accuracy becomes important since it may ensure the development and the readiness of all tourism related industries such as hotels, transportation, food and services industries and their best shape. This study focuses on tourist arrivals in Langkawi Island as one of the major tourist attractions situated in the northerly region of Peninsular Malaysia. Importantly, this paper attempts to measure and compare the performance of forecasting with Exponential Smoothing, ARIMA and ARFIMA models using the R software package.

  4. Investigation on properties of ultrafast switching in a bulk gallium arsenide avalanche semiconductor switch

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Long; Su, Jiancang; Ding, Zhenjie; Hao, Qingsong; Yuan, Xuelin

    2014-01-01

    Properties of ultrafast switching in a bulk gallium arsenide (GaAs) avalanche semiconductor switch based on semi-insulating wafer, triggered by an optical pulse, were analyzed using physics-based numerical simulations. It has been demonstrated that when a voltage with amplitude of 5.2 kV is applied, after an exciting optical pulse with energy of 1 μJ arrival, the structure with thickness of 650 μm reaches a high conductivity state within 110 ps. Carriers are created due to photons absorption, and electrons and holes drift to anode and cathode terminals, respectively. Static ionizing domains appear both at anode and cathode terminals, and create impact-generated carriers which contribute to the formation of electron-hole plasma along entire channel. When the electric field in plasma region increases above the critical value (∼4 kV/cm) at which the electrons drift velocity peaks, a domain comes into being. An increase in carrier concentration due to avalanche multiplication in the domains reduces the domain width and results in the formation of an additional domain as soon as the field outside the domains increases above ∼4 kV/cm. The formation and evolution of multiple powerfully avalanching domains observed in the simulations are the physical reasons of ultrafast switching. The switch exhibits delayed breakdown with the characteristics affected by biased electric field, current density, and optical pulse energy. The dependence of threshold energy of the exciting optical pulse on the biased electric field is discussed

  5. Stratigraphic reconstruction of the 13 ka BP debris avalanche deposit at Colima volcano (Mexico): effect of climatic conditions on the flow mobility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roverato, M.; Capra, L.

    2010-12-01

    Colima volcano is an andesitic stratovolcano located in the western part of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) and at the southern end of the N-S trending Colima graben, about 70 km from the Pacific Ocean coast. It is probably the most active Mexican volcano in historic time and one of the most active of North America. Colima volcano yielded numerous partial edifice collapses with emplacement of debris avalanche deposits (DADs) of contrasting volume, morphology, texture and origin. This work has the aim to provide the evidences of how the climatic condition during the 13 ka flank collapse of the Colima volcano affected the textural characteristic and the mobility of the debris avalanche and debris flow originated from this event that occurred just after the Last Glacial Maximum in Mexico (18.4-14.5 ka 14C BP with snow line at 3600 m a.s.l. up to 13 ka BP). The 13,000 yrs old debris avalanche deposit, here named Tonila (TDAD) presents the typical debris avalanche textural characteristics (angular to sub-angular clasts, coarse matrix, jigsaw fit) but at approximately 13 km from the source, the deposit transforms to an hybrid phase with debris avalanche fragments imbedded in a finer, homogenous and indurated matrix more similar to a debris flow deposit. The debris avalanche deposit is directly overly by debris flows, often more than 10 m thick that contains large amount of logs from pine tree, mostly accumulated toward the base and imbricated down flow. Fluvial deposits also occur throughout all successions, representing periods of stream and river reworking highly localized and re-establishment. All these evidences point to the presence of water in the mass previous to the failure. The event here described represent an anomalous event between the previously described deposit associated to volcanic complex, and evidence as climatic condition can alter and modifies the depositional sequences incrementing the hazard.

  6. Best-Practice Criteria for Practical Security of Self-Differencing Avalanche Photodiode Detectors in Quantum Key Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehler-Sidki, A.; Dynes, J. F.; Lucamarini, M.; Roberts, G. L.; Sharpe, A. W.; Yuan, Z. L.; Shields, A. J.

    2018-04-01

    Fast-gated avalanche photodiodes (APDs) are the most commonly used single photon detectors for high-bit-rate quantum key distribution (QKD). Their robustness against external attacks is crucial to the overall security of a QKD system, or even an entire QKD network. We investigate the behavior of a gigahertz-gated, self-differencing (In,Ga)As APD under strong illumination, a tactic Eve often uses to bring detectors under her control. Our experiment and modeling reveal that the negative feedback by the photocurrent safeguards the detector from being blinded through reducing its avalanche probability and/or strengthening the capacitive response. Based on this finding, we propose a set of best-practice criteria for designing and operating fast-gated APD detectors to ensure their practical security in QKD.

  7. How Business Cycles Affect the Healthcare Sector: A Cross-country Investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleeren, Kathleen; Lamey, Lien; Meyer, Jan-Hinrich; De Ruyter, Ko

    2016-07-01

    The long-term relationship between the general economy and healthcare expenditures has been extensively researched, to explain differences in healthcare spending between countries, but the midterm (i.e., business cycle) perspective has been overlooked. This study explores business cycle sensitivity in both public and private parts of the healthcare sector across 32 countries. Responses to the business cycle vary notably, both across spending sources and across countries. Whereas in some countries, consumers and/or governments cut back, in others, private and/or public healthcare buyers tend to spend more. We also assess long-term consequences of business cycle sensitivity and show that public cost cutting during economic downturns deflates the mortality rates, whereas private cut backs increase the long-term growth in total healthcare expenditures. Finally, multiple factors help explain variability in cyclical sensitivity. Private cost cuts during economic downturns are smaller in countries with a predominantly publicly funded healthcare system and more preventive public activities. Public cut backs during contractions are smaller in countries that rely more on tax-based resources rather than social health insurances. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Research on industrialization of electric vehicles with its demand forecast using exponential smoothing method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanglin Peng

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Electric vehicles industry has gotten a rapid development in the world, especially in the developed countries, but still has a gap among different countries or regions. The advanced industrialization experiences of the EVs in the developed countries will have a great helpful for the development of EVs industrialization in the developing countries. This paper seeks to research the industrialization path & prospect of American EVs by forecasting electric vehicles demand and its proportion to the whole car sales based on the historical 37 EVs monthly sales and Cars monthly sales spanning from Dec. 2010 to Dec. 2013, and find out the key measurements to help Chinese government and automobile enterprises to promote Chinese EVs industrialization. Design/methodology: Compared with Single Exponential Smoothing method and Double Exponential Smoothing method, Triple exponential smoothing method is improved and applied in this study. Findings: The research results show that:  American EVs industry will keep a sustained growth in the next 3 months.  Price of the EVs, price of fossil oil, number of charging station, EVs technology and the government market & taxation polices have a different influence to EVs sales. So EVs manufacturers and policy-makers can adjust or reformulate some technology tactics and market measurements according to the forecast results. China can learn from American EVs polices and measurements to develop Chinese EVs industry. Originality/value: The main contribution of this paper is to use the triple exponential smoothing method to forecast the electric vehicles demand and its proportion to the whole automobile sales, and analyze the industrial development of Chinese electric vehicles by American EVs industry.

  9. Rock avalanche and rock glacier: A compound landform study from Hornsund, Svalbard

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hartvich, Filip; Blahůt, Jan; Stemberk, Josef

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 276, JAN 1 (2017), s. 244-256 ISSN 0169-555X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LM2015079; GA MŠk(CZ) LG15007 Institutional support: RVO:67985891 Keywords : ERT * TLS (LiDAR) * lichenometry * morphometry * rock avalanche * rock glacier * Schmidt hammer * Svalbard * Hornsund Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy OBOR OECD: Geology Impact factor: 2.958, year: 2016

  10. Short-term residential load forecasting: Impact of calendar effects and forecast granularity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lusis, Peter; Khalilpour, Kaveh Rajab; Andrew, Lachlan

    2017-01-01

    forecasting for a single-customer or even down at an appliance level. Access to high resolution data from smart meters has enabled the research community to assess conventional load forecasting techniques and develop new forecasting strategies suitable for demand-side disaggregated loads. This paper studies...... how calendar effects, forecasting granularity and the length of the training set affect the accuracy of a day-ahead load forecast for residential customers. Root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized RMSE were used as forecast error metrics. Regression trees, neural networks, and support vector...... regression yielded similar average RMSE results, but statistical analysis showed that regression trees technique is significantly better. The use of historical load profiles with daily and weekly seasonality, combined with weather data, leaves the explicit calendar effects a very low predictive power...

  11. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help

  12. Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project 'European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast' - http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). A model was built to assess policy scenarios' impact on the pharmaceutical budgets of seven member states of the EU, namely France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. The following scenarios were tested: expanding the UK policies to EU, changing time to market access, modifying generic price and penetration, shifting the distribution chain of biosimilars (retail/hospital). Applying the UK policy resulted in dramatic savings for Germany (10 times the base case forecast) and substantial additional savings for France and Portugal (2 and 4 times the base case forecast, respectively). Delaying time to market was found be to a very powerful tool to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Applying the EU transparency directive (6-month process for pricing and reimbursement) increased pharmaceutical expenditure for all countries (from 1.1 to 4 times the base case forecast), except in Germany (additional savings). Decreasing the price of generics and boosting the penetration rate, as well as shifting distribution of biosimilars through hospital chain were also key methods to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Change in the level of reimbursement rate to 100% in all countries led to an important increase in the pharmaceutical budget. Forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure is a critical exercise to inform policy decision makers. The most important leverages identified by the model on pharmaceutical budget were driven by generic and biosimilar prices, penetration rate, and distribution. Reducing, even slightly, the prices of

  13. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  14. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition contains offers increased-coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.

  15. A morphological perceptron with gradient-based learning for Brazilian stock market forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Ricardo de A

    2012-04-01

    Several linear and non-linear techniques have been proposed to solve the stock market forecasting problem. However, a limitation arises from all these techniques and is known as the random walk dilemma (RWD). In this scenario, forecasts generated by arbitrary models have a characteristic one step ahead delay with respect to the time series values, so that, there is a time phase distortion in stock market phenomena reconstruction. In this paper, we propose a suitable model inspired by concepts in mathematical morphology (MM) and lattice theory (LT). This model is generically called the increasing morphological perceptron (IMP). Also, we present a gradient steepest descent method to design the proposed IMP based on ideas from the back-propagation (BP) algorithm and using a systematic approach to overcome the problem of non-differentiability of morphological operations. Into the learning process we have included a procedure to overcome the RWD, which is an automatic correction step that is geared toward eliminating time phase distortions that occur in stock market phenomena. Furthermore, an experimental analysis is conducted with the IMP using four complex non-linear problems of time series forecasting from the Brazilian stock market. Additionally, two natural phenomena time series are used to assess forecasting performance of the proposed IMP with other non financial time series. At the end, the obtained results are discussed and compared to results found using models recently proposed in the literature. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Performance of fuzzy approach in Malaysia short-term electricity load forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansor, Rosnalini; Zulkifli, Malina; Yusof, Muhammad Mat; Ismail, Mohd Isfahani; Ismail, Suzilah; Yin, Yip Chee

    2014-12-01

    Many activities such as economic, education and manafucturing would paralyse with limited supply of electricity but surplus contribute to high operating cost. Therefore electricity load forecasting is important in order to avoid shortage or excess. Previous finding showed festive celebration has effect on short-term electricity load forecasting. Being a multi culture country Malaysia has many major festive celebrations such as Eidul Fitri, Chinese New Year and Deepavali but they are moving holidays due to non-fixed dates on the Gregorian calendar. This study emphasis on the performance of fuzzy approach in forecasting electricity load when considering the presence of moving holidays. Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was estimated using simulated data by including model simplification concept (manual or automatic), day types (weekdays or weekend), public holidays and lags of electricity load. The result indicated that day types, public holidays and several lags of electricity load were significant in the model. Overall, model simplification improves fuzzy performance due to less variables and rules.

  17. Construction Safety Forecast for ITER

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    cadwallader, lee charles

    2006-11-01

    The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project is poised to begin its construction activity. This paper gives an estimate of construction safety as if the experiment was being built in the United States. This estimate of construction injuries and potential fatalities serves as a useful forecast of what can be expected for construction of such a major facility in any country. These data should be considered by the ITER International Team as it plans for safety during the construction phase. Based on average U.S. construction rates, ITER may expect a lost workday case rate of < 4.0 and a fatality count of 0.5 to 0.9 persons per year.

  18. Forecasting non-stationary diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and malaria time-series in Niono, Mali.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, Daniel C; Findley, Sally E; Guindo, Boubacar; Doumbia, Seydou

    2007-11-21

    Much of the developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, exhibits high levels of morbidity and mortality associated with diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and malaria. With the increasing awareness that the aforementioned infectious diseases impose an enormous burden on developing countries, public health programs therein could benefit from parsimonious general-purpose forecasting methods to enhance infectious disease intervention. Unfortunately, these disease time-series often i) suffer from non-stationarity; ii) exhibit large inter-annual plus seasonal fluctuations; and, iii) require disease-specific tailoring of forecasting methods. In this longitudinal retrospective (01/1996-06/2004) investigation, diarrhea, acute respiratory infection of the lower tract, and malaria consultation time-series are fitted with a general-purpose econometric method, namely the multiplicative Holt-Winters, to produce contemporaneous on-line forecasts for the district of Niono, Mali. This method accommodates seasonal, as well as inter-annual, fluctuations and produces reasonably accurate median 2- and 3-month horizon forecasts for these non-stationary time-series, i.e., 92% of the 24 time-series forecasts generated (2 forecast horizons, 3 diseases, and 4 age categories = 24 time-series forecasts) have mean absolute percentage errors circa 25%. The multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting method: i) performs well across diseases with dramatically distinct transmission modes and hence it is a strong general-purpose forecasting method candidate for non-stationary epidemiological time-series; ii) obliquely captures prior non-linear interactions between climate and the aforementioned disease dynamics thus, obviating the need for more complex disease-specific climate-based parametric forecasting methods in the district of Niono; furthermore, iii) readily decomposes time-series into seasonal components thereby potentially assisting with programming of public health interventions

  19. InGaAs/InAlAs single photon avalanche diode for 1550 nm photons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Xiao; Xie, Shiyu; Zhou, Xinxin; Calandri, Niccolò; Sanzaro, Mirko; Tosi, Alberto; Tan, Chee Hing; Ng, Jo Shien

    2016-03-01

    A single photon avalanche diode (SPAD) with an InGaAs absorption region, and an InAlAs avalanche region was designed and demonstrated to detect 1550 nm wavelength photons. The characterization included leakage current, dark count rate and single photon detection efficiency as functions of temperature from 210 to 294 K. The SPAD exhibited good temperature stability, with breakdown voltage dependence of approximately 45 mV K(-1). Operating at 210 K and in a gated mode, the SPAD achieved a photon detection probability of 26% at 1550 nm with a dark count rate of 1 × 10(8) Hz. The time response of the SPAD showed decreasing timing jitter (full width at half maximum) with increasing overbias voltage, with 70 ps being the smallest timing jitter measured.

  20. Modeling and Forecasting Mortality With Economic Growth: A Multipopulation Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boonen, Tim J; Li, Hong

    2017-10-01

    Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by one or more common latent factors. This article proposes a multipopulation stochastic mortality model that uses the explanatory power of economic growth. In particular, we extend the Li and Lee model (Li and Lee 2005) by including economic growth, represented by the real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, to capture the common mortality trend for a group of populations with similar socioeconomic conditions. We find that our proposed model provides a better in-sample fit and an out-of-sample forecast performance. Moreover, it generates lower (higher) forecasted period life expectancy for countries with high (low) GDP per capita than the Li and Lee model.