WorldWideScience

Sample records for back-country avalanche forecasting

  1. A Hidden Markov Model for avalanche forecasting on Chowkibal ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... different states of the model and Avalanche Activity Index (AAI) of a day, derived from the model input variables, as an observation. Validation of the model with independent data of two winters (2008–2009, 2009–2010) gives 80% accuracy for both day-1 and day-2. Comparison of various forecasting quality measures and ...

  2. Meteorological variables to aid forecasting deep slab avalanches on persistent weak layers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marienthal, Alex; Hendrikx, Jordy; Birkeland, Karl; Irvine, Kathryn M.

    2015-01-01

    Deep slab avalanches are particularly challenging to forecast. These avalanches are difficult to trigger, yet when they release they tend to propagate far and can result in large and destructive avalanches. We utilized a 44-year record of avalanche control and meteorological data from Bridger Bowl ski area in southwest Montana to test the usefulness of meteorological variables for predicting seasons and days with deep slab avalanches. We defined deep slab avalanches as those that failed on persistent weak layers deeper than 0.9 m, and that occurred after February 1st. Previous studies often used meteorological variables from days prior to avalanches, but we also considered meteorological variables over the early months of the season. We used classification trees and random forests for our analyses. Our results showed seasons with either dry or wet deep slabs on persistent weak layers typically had less precipitation from November through January than seasons without deep slabs on persistent weak layers. Days with deep slab avalanches on persistent weak layers often had warmer minimum 24-hour air temperatures, and more precipitation over the prior seven days, than days without deep slabs on persistent weak layers. Days with deep wet slab avalanches on persistent weak layers were typically preceded by three days of above freezing air temperatures. Seasonal and daily meteorological variables were found useful to aid forecasting dry and wet deep slab avalanches on persistent weak layers, and should be used in combination with continuous observation of the snowpack and avalanche activity.

  3. Snow-avalanche hazard forecasting in the Krkonoše Mountains, Czechia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blahut, Jan; Pavlasek, Jiri; Juras, Roman; Klimes, Jan; Klose, Zbynek; Balek, Jan; Roubinek, Jiri; Taborik, Petr; Hajek, Petr

    2014-05-01

    The Krkonoše Mts., with the highest peak at 1602 m, are the highest mountains in the Czech Republic. This middle-mountain range covers an area of 454 km2 and includes 53 permanent avalanche paths. Despite its low altitude Krkonoše experience considerably high avalanche activity, even causing fatalities. Unfortunately, and so far, the local authorities do not have a professional tool for avalanche forecasting available. Within the framework of a project devoted to preparation of a tool for snow avalanche hazard forecasting an analysis of historical datasets was performed including weather and snow condition data covering more than 1100 avalanche events in the last 50 years. HR-DEM from airborne LiDAR was used to get accurate slope and terrain characteristics, which were used for calculation of a release susceptibility map using ANN method. Afterwards and regional runout susceptibility was calculated employing Flow-R code (http://www.flow-r.org) and information from the regression analysis of avalanche runout length. This "static" information about avalanche hazard is then being coupled with snow distribution and stability models in order to assess the snow-avalanche hazard in near-real time. For the snow distribution modelling are being tested two models - Alpine 3D and newly developed spatial distributed HBV-ETH model. It is planned that the forecasting system will be employed as a public avalanche alert system for the Krkonoše Mts. and consequently will be extended for the whole Czechia under the patronage of the Mountain Rescue Service, an organization responsible for the public snow-avalanche hazard forecasting. The system will use forecasted ALADIN weather data.

  4. Forecasting for natural avalanches during spring opening of Going-to-the-Sun Road, Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reardon, Blase; Lundy, Chris

    2004-01-01

    The annual spring opening of the Going-to-the-Sun Road in Glacier National Park presents a unique avalanche forecasting challenge. The highway traverses dozens of avalanche paths mid-track in a 23-kilometer section that crosses the Continental Divide. Workers removing seasonal snow and avalanche debris are exposed to paths that can produce avalanches of destructive class 4. The starting zones for most slide paths are within proposed Wilderness, and explosive testing or control are not currently used. Spring weather along the Divide is highly variable; rain-on-snow events are common, storms can bring several feet of new snow as late as June, and temperature swings can be dramatic. Natural avalanches - dry and wet slab, dry and wet loose, and glide avalanches - present a wide range of hazards and forecasting issues. This paper summarizes the forecasting program instituted in 2002 for the annual snow removal operations. It focuses on tools and techniques for forecasting natural wet snow avalanches by incorporating two case studies, including a widespread climax wet slab cycle in 2003. We examine weather and snowpack conditions conducive to wet snow avalanches, indicators for instability, and suggest a conceptual model for wet snow stability in a northern intermountain snow climate.

  5. Ecological monitoring for Berlin and its back country

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, G.

    1992-01-01

    In 1991, the city of Berlin started the implementation of the 'monitoring program natural budget'. The aim of this program is the assessment of biological and ecological effects of atmospheric pollution as well as the analysis and evaluation of the functioning of the natural balance in pine forest ecosystems in the city area of Berlin and in the close vicinity. The investigations should make temporal and regional statements possible. Techniques of active and passive monitoring are applied (effect cadastre) as well as extensive investigations in long-term observation areas (at present pine forest systems). The ecosystem itself is in the foreground as a sensitive indicator for an existing atmospheric pollution load. The results should enable forecasts of the development of the related organisms and the ecosystems under the effect of anthropogenic load factors. (orig.) [de

  6. A probabilistic model for snow avalanche occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perona, P.; Miescher, A.; Porporato, A.

    2009-04-01

    Avalanche hazard forecasting is an important issue in relation to the protection of urbanized environments, ski resorts and of ski-touring alpinists. A critical point is to predict the conditions that trigger the snow mass instability determining the onset and the size of avalanches. On steep terrains the risk of avalanches is known to be related to preceding consistent snowfall events and to subsequent changes in the local climatic conditions. Regression analysis has shown that avalanche occurrence indeed correlates to the amount of snow fallen in consecutive three snowing days and to the state of the settled snow at the ground. Moreover, since different type of avalanches may occur as a result of the interactions of different factors, the process of snow avalanche formation is inherently complex and with some degree of unpredictability. For this reason, although several models assess the risk of avalanche by accounting for all the involved processes with a great detail, a high margin of uncertainty invariably remains. In this work, we explicitly describe such an unpredictable behaviour with an intrinsic noise affecting the processes leading snow instability. Eventually, this sets the basis for a minimalist stochastic model, which allows us to investigate the avalanche dynamics and its statistical properties. We employ a continuous time process with stochastic jumps (snowfalls), deterministic decay (snowmelt and compaction) and state dependent avalanche occurrence (renewals) as a minimalist model for the determination of avalanche size and related intertime occurrence. The physics leading to avalanches is simplified to the extent where only meteorological data and terrain data are necessary to estimate avalanche danger. We explore the analytical formulation of the process and the properties of the probability density function of the avalanche process variables. We also discuss what is the probabilistic link between avalanche size and preceding snowfall event and

  7. Arctic avalanche dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prokop, Alexander; Eiken, Mari; Ganaus, Kerstin; Rubensdotter, Lena

    2017-04-01

    Since the avalanche disaster December 19th, 2015 in Longyearbyen (Svalbard) happened, where two people were killed within settlements, the dynamic of avalanches in arctic regions is of increasing interest for hazard mapping in such areas. To investigate the flow behavior of arctic avalanches we focused on avalanches that occurred in Central Svalbard. In this regions historic avalanche events can be analyzed due to their deposition behavior visible on geomorphological maps in the run-out area of the avalanches. To get an idea about possible snow mass that was involved in the avalanches we measured the snow volume balance of recent avalanches (winters 2015/16) via terrestrial laser scanning. In this way we gained reasonable data to set calibration and input parameters for dynamic avalanche modeling. Using state of the art dynamic avalanche models allowed us to back calculate how much snow was involved in the historic avalanches that we identified on the geomorphological maps and what the return period of those events are. In our presentation we first explain our methodology; we discuss arctic avalanche behavior of the avalanches measured via terrestrial laser scanning and how the dynamic avalanche models performed for those case examples. Finally we conclude how our results can improve avalanche hazard mapping for arctic regions.

  8. Negative feedback avalanche diode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itzler, Mark Allen (Inventor)

    2010-01-01

    A single-photon avalanche detector is disclosed that is operable at wavelengths greater than 1000 nm and at operating speeds greater than 10 MHz. The single-photon avalanche detector comprises a thin-film resistor and avalanche photodiode that are monolithically integrated such that little or no additional capacitance is associated with the addition of the resistor.

  9. Meteorological variables associated with deep slab avalanches on persistent weak layers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marienthal, Alex; Hendrikx, Jordy; Birkeland, Karl; Irvine, Kathryn M.

    2014-01-01

    Deep slab avalanches are a particularly challenging avalanche forecasting problem. These avalanches are typically difficult to trigger, yet when they are triggered they tend to propagate far and result in large and destructive avalanches. For this work we define deep slab avalanches as those that fail on persistent weak layers deeper than 0.9m (3 feet), and that occur after February 1st. We utilized a 44-year record of avalanche control and meteorological data from Bridger Bowl Ski Area to test the usefulness of meteorological variables for predicting deep slab avalanches. As in previous studies, we used data from the days preceding deep slab cycles, but we also considered meteorological metrics over the early months of the season. We utilized classification trees for our analyses. Our results showed warmer temperatures in the prior twenty-four hours and more loading over the seven days before days with deep slab avalanches on persistent weak layers. In line with previous research, extended periods of above freezing temperatures led to days with deep wet slab avalanches on persistent weak layers. Seasons with either dry or wet avalanches on deep persistent weak layers typically had drier early months, and often had some significant snow depth prior to those dry months. This paper provides insights for ski patrollers, guides, and avalanche forecasters who struggle to forecast deep slab avalanches on persistent weak layers late in the season.

  10. Mountain range specific analog weather forecast model for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    various road management activities and for better assessment of avalanche danger situation during the winter period (November to April). Weather forecasting in the context of avalanche forecasting can be viewed as an initial essential process to begin assessment of an avalanche danger situation for a given area and ...

  11. Synoptic atmospheric circulation patterns controlling avalanche activity in central Svalbard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock, Holt; Prokop, Alexander; Eckerstorfer, Markus; Hendrikx, Jordy

    2017-04-01

    Central Svalbard's avalanche activity is primarily controlled by the local and synoptic scale meteorological conditions characterizing the region's winter storms. Previous work has described Svalbard's direct-action snow climate as High-Arctic maritime based on the unique meteorological conditions and resulting snowpack stratigraphy observed in the region. To gain a better understanding of the broad-scale spatial controls on regional avalanche activity in Svalbard, this work investigates synoptic atmospheric circulation patterns associated with observed avalanche cycles during the 2007/2008 to 2015/2016 winter seasons. We use avalanche observations systematically recorded as part of the Cryoslope Svalbard project from 2007-2010 in combination with additional observations from notable avalanche events from 2010-2016 to develop a regional avalanche cycle history. We then compare the timing of these avalanche cycles to an existing daily calendar of synoptic types and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis datasets to characterize the synoptic atmospheric circulation patterns influencing this avalanche activity. Our results indicate regional avalanche cycles are driven by cyclonic activity in the seas surrounding Svalbard under synoptic circulation patterns associated with warm air advection and moisture transport from lower latitudes to Svalbard. The character and spatial distribution of observed avalanche activity can be differentiated by atmospheric circulation type: mid-winter slushflow and wet slab avalanche cycles, for example, are typically associated with meridional southerly flow over the North Atlantic bringing warm air and heavy precipitation to Svalbard. Such analyses can provide a foundation upon which to improve the understanding of central Svalbard's snow climate to facilitate regional avalanche forecasting efforts.

  12. Characterizing the nature and variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shandro, Bret; Haegeli, Pascal

    2018-04-01

    The snow and avalanche climate types maritime, continental and transitional are well established and have been used extensively to characterize the general nature of avalanche hazard at a location, study inter-seasonal and large-scale spatial variabilities and provide context for the design of avalanche safety operations. While researchers and practitioners have an experience-based understanding of the avalanche hazard associated with the three climate types, no studies have described the hazard character of an avalanche climate in detail. Since the 2009/2010 winter, the consistent use of Statham et al. (2017) conceptual model of avalanche hazard in public avalanche bulletins in Canada has created a new quantitative record of avalanche hazard that offers novel opportunities for addressing this knowledge gap. We identified typical daily avalanche hazard situations using self-organizing maps (SOMs) and then calculated seasonal prevalence values of these situations. This approach produces a concise characterization that is conducive to statistical analyses, but still provides a comprehensive picture that is informative for avalanche risk management due to its link to avalanche problem types. Hazard situation prevalence values for individual seasons, elevations bands and forecast regions provide unprecedented insight into the inter-seasonal and spatial variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada.

  13. Thunder - adaptive avalanche airbag system

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Kan

    2017-01-01

    Skiing plays an important role in outdoor activities. It allows us to regain control of our body, makes us feel alive. However, in some cases, skiing comes with great risk. Avalanche is the worth thing a skier would like to encounter. Thunder is an adaptive avalanche airbag system. Usually, an avalanche airbag product can help you float on the snow in an avalanche circumstance. Thunder are more focusing on the human behavior, making this avalanche airbag system not only an effective safety eq...

  14. Statistical-Based Forecasting of Avalanche Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    K. Srinivasan; Girish Semwal; T. Sunil

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes the study carried out to predict few meteorological parameters of the nextday using the observed parameters of previous day through statistical methods. Multiple linear regression model was formulated for a hill station, Patsio, situated between Manali and Leh, for two winter months(December and January) separately. Twelve meteorological parameters were predicted using 18 predictorsob served on the previous day. Ten years data has been used for the computation of regressi...

  15. A multi path, weather independent avalanche monitoring tool using distributed acoustic fiber optic sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prokop, Alexander; Wirbel, Anna

    2013-04-01

    Information on avalanche activity is a paramount parameter in avalanche forecasting. When avalanches are released spontaneously, the risk of avalanches is very high. Triggering avalanches by artificial means, such as explosives launched from helicopter or avalanche towers, can also give information on the stability of the snow pack. Hence, monitoring of avalanches released naturally or artificially, is an important quantity in avalanche forecasting. This information is also needed when deciding whether to close or not endangered ski runs, roads or railway lines. So far monitoring systems lack certain benefits. Either they monitor only large avalanches, can only be used for single avalanche tracks or are weather/sight dependant. Therefore a new tool for avalanche- monitoring, a distributed fiber optic system, is for the first time installed and adapted for the purpose of monitoring snow avalanche activity. The method is based on an optical time domain reflectometer (OTDR) system, which dates back to the 1970`s and detects seismic vibrations and acoustic signals on a fiber optic cable that can have a length of up to 30 km. An appropriate test slope for this configuration has been found in the ski area of "Lech am Arlberg". In this work a detailed description of the theoretical background, the system implementation, the field installation, realization of tests and an investigation of the recorded data is presented. We conducted 100 tests and triggered 41 avalanches so far with a runout distances ranging from a few meters to approximately 250 meters, all of which were detected by the system, as well as the 59 not successful attempts of artificial triggering. Moreover we measured properly if critical infrastructure (in our case a ski run) was reached by the avalanches or not. The spatial distributed sensing approach allowed us to relate the amplitude and spectral content of the signals to avalanche size, avalanche speed and snow properties of the avalanches. In

  16. Mountain range specific analog weather forecast model for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    hazard evaluation; Canadian Geotechnical Journal 7. 414–419. Sharma S S and Ganju A 2000 Complexities of avalanche forecasting in Western Himalaya: An overview; Cold. Regions Science and Technology 31 95–102. Singh A and Ganju A 2004 A supplement to nearest neigh- bour method for avalanche forecasting; ...

  17. Influence of snow-cover properties on avalanche dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinkogler, W.; Sovilla, B.; Lehning, M.

    2012-04-01

    Snow avalanches with the potential of reaching traffic routes and settlements are a permanent winter threat for many mountain communities. Snow safety officers have to take the decision whether to close a road, a railway line or a ski slope. Those decisions are often very difficult as they demand the ability to interpret weather forecasts, to establish their implication for the stability and the structure of the snow cover and to evaluate the influence of the snow cover on avalanche run-out distances. In the operational programme 'Italy-Switzerland, project STRADA' we focus on the effects of snow cover on avalanche dynamics, and thus run-out distance, with the aim to provide a better understanding of this influence and to ultimately develop tools to support snow safety officers in their decision process. We selected five avalanches, measured at the Vallée de la Sionne field site, with similar initial mass and topography but different flow dynamics and run-out distances. Significant differences amongst the individual avalanches could be observed for front and internal velocities, impact pressures, flow regimes, deposition volumes and run-out distances. For each of these avalanches, the prevailing snow conditions at release were reconstructed using field data from local snowpits or were modeled with SNOWPACK. Combining flow dynamical data with snow cover properties shows that erodible snow depth, snow density and snow temperature in the snow pack along the avalanche track are among the decisive variables that appear to explain the observed differences. It is further discussed, how these influencing factors can be quantified and used for improved predictions of site and time specific avalanche hazard.

  18. IFKIS - a basis for managing avalanche risk in settlements and on roads in Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Bründl

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available After the avalanche winter of 1999 in Switzerland, which caused 17 deaths and damage of over CHF 600 mill. in buildings and on roads, the project IFKIS, aimed at improving the basics of organizational measures (closure of roads, evacuation etc. in avalanche risk management, was initiated. The three main parts of the project were the development of a compulsory checklist for avalanche safety services, a modular education and training course program and an information system for safety services. The information system was developed in order to improve both the information flux between the national centre for avalanche forecasting, the Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, and the local safety services on the one hand and the communication between avalanche safety services in the communities on the other hand. The results of this project make a valuable contribution to strengthening organizational measures in avalanche risk management and to closing the gaps, which became apparent during the avalanche winter of 1999. They are not restricted to snow avalanches but can also be adapted for dealing with other natural hazard processes and catastrophes.

  19. Integrated avalanche photodiode arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harmon, Eric S.

    2015-07-07

    The present disclosure includes devices for detecting photons, including avalanche photon detectors, arrays of such detectors, and circuits including such arrays. In some aspects, the detectors and arrays include a virtual beveled edge mesa structure surrounded by resistive material damaged by ion implantation and having side wall profiles that taper inwardly towards the top of the mesa structures, or towards the direction from which the ion implantation occurred. Other aspects are directed to masking and multiple implantation and/or annealing steps. Furthermore, methods for fabricating and using such devices, circuits and arrays are disclosed.

  20. Skier triggering of backcountry avalanches with skilled route selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinickas, Alexandra; Haegeli, Pascal; Jamieson, Bruce

    2015-04-01

    Jamieson (2009) provided numerical estimates for the baseline probabilities of triggering an avalanche by a backcountry skier making fresh tracks without skilled route selection as a function of the North American avalanche danger scale (i.e., hazard levels Low, Moderate, Considerable, High and Extreme). Using the results of an expert survey, he showed that triggering probabilities while skiing directly up, down or across a trigger zone without skilled route selection increase roughly by a factor of 10 with each step of the North American avalanche danger scale (i.e. hazard level). The objective of the present study is to examine the effect of skilled route selection on the relationship between triggering probability and hazard level. To assess the effect of skilled route selection on triggering probability by hazard level, we analysed avalanche hazard assessments as well as reports of skiing activity and triggering of avalanches from 11 Canadian helicopter and snowcat operations during two winters (2012-13 and 2013-14). These reports were submitted to the daily information exchange among Canadian avalanche safety operations, and reflect professional decision-making and route selection practices of guides leading groups of skiers. We selected all skier-controlled or accidentally triggered avalanches with a destructive size greater than size 1 according to the Canadian avalanche size classification, triggered by any member of a guided group (guide or guest). These operations forecast the avalanche hazard daily for each of three elevation bands: alpine, treeline and below treeline. In contrast to the 2009 study, an exposure was defined as a group skiing within any one of the three elevation bands, and consequently within a hazard rating, for the day (~4,300 ratings over two winters). For example, a group that skied below treeline (rated Moderate) and treeline (rated Considerable) in one day, would receive one count for exposure to Moderate hazard, and one count for

  1. Timing of wet snow avalanche activity: An analysis from Glacier National Park, Montana, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peitzsch, Erich H.; Hendrikx, Jordy; Fagre, Daniel B.

    2012-01-01

    Wet snow avalanches pose a problem for annual spring road opening operations along the Going-to-the-Sun Road (GTSR) in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. A suite of meteorological metrics and snow observations has been used to forecast for wet slab and glide avalanche activity. However, the timing of spring wet slab and glide avalanches is a difficult process to forecast and requires new capabilities. For the 2011 and 2012 spring seasons we tested a previously developed classification tree model which had been trained on data from 2003-2010. For 2011, this model yielded a 91% predictive rate for avalanche days. For 2012, the model failed to capture any of the avalanche days observed. We then investigated these misclassified avalanche days in the 2012 season by comparing them to the misclassified days from the original dataset from which the model was trained. Results showed no significant difference in air temperature variables between this year and the original training data set for these misclassified days. This indicates that 2012 was characterized by avalanche days most similar to those that the model struggled with in the original training data. The original classification tree model showed air temperature to be a significant variable in wet avalanche activity which implies that subsequent movement of meltwater through the snowpack is also important. To further understand the timing of water flow we installed two lysimeters in fall 2011 before snow accumulation. Water flow showed a moderate correlation with air temperature later in the season and no synchronous pattern associated with wet slab and glide avalanche activity. We also characterized snowpack structure as the snowpack transitioned from a dry to a wet snowpack throughout the spring. This helped to assess potential failure layers of wet snow avalanches and the timing of avalanches compared to water moving through the snowpack. These tools (classification tree model and lysimeter data), combined with

  2. About possibility of application of avalanche photodiodes during radioecological monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huseynaliyev, Y.H.

    2004-01-01

    Full text : This article includes all necessary information about possibility of application of avalanche photodiodes during radioecological surveys. It is shown that at present these devices can be operated in every field of our life. Mostly their operation is based on different types of crystals, which have different characteristics. These photodiodes have a great importance in production of tomographs for conducting of diagnostics and forecasting. Further additional diagram of connection to work of this photodiode is explained [az

  3. Characterizing wet slab and glide slab avalanche occurrence along the Going-to-the-Sun Road, Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peitzsch, Erich H.; Hendrikx, Jordy; Fagre, Daniel B.; Reardon, Blase

    2010-01-01

    Wet slab and glide slab snow avalanches are dangerous and yet can be particularly difficult to predict. Both wet slab and glide slab avalanches are thought to depend upon free water moving through the snowpack but are driven by different processes. In Glacier National Park, Montana, both types of avalanches can occur in the same year and affect the Going-to-the-Sun Road (GTSR). Both wet slab and glide slab avalanches along the GTSR from 2003-2010 are investigated. Meteorological data from two high-elevation weather stations and one SNOTEL site are used in conjunction with an avalanche database and snowpit profiles. These data were used to characterize years when only glide slab avalanches occurred and those years when both glide slab and wet slab avalanches occurred. Results of 168 glide slab and 57 wet slab avalanches along the GTSR suggest both types of avalanche occurrence depend on sustained warming periods with intense solar radiation (or rain on snow) to produce free water in the snowpack. Differences in temperature and net radiation metrics between wet slab and glide slab avalanches emerge as one moves from one day to seven days prior to avalanche occurrence. On average, a more rapid warming precedes wet slab avalanche occurrence. Glide slab and wet slab avalanches require a similar amount of net radiation. Wet slab avalanches do not occur every year, while glide slab avalanches occur annually. These results aim to enhance understanding of the required meteorological conditions for wet slab and glide slab avalanches and aid in improved wet snow avalanche forecasting.

  4. Using GIS and Google Earth for the creation of the Going-to-the-Sun Road Avalanche Atlas, Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peitzsch, Erich H.; Fagre, Daniel B.; Dundas, Mark

    2010-01-01

    Snow avalanche paths are key geomorphologic features in Glacier National Park, Montana, and an important component of mountain ecosystems: they are isolated within a larger ecosystem, they are continuously disturbed, and they contain unique physical characteristics (Malanson and Butler, 1984). Avalanches impact subalpine forest structure and function, as well as overall biodiversity (Bebi et al., 2009). Because avalanches are dynamic phenomena, avalanche path geometry and spatial extent depend upon climatic regimes. The USGS/GNP Avalanche Program formally began in 2003 as an avalanche forecasting program for the spring opening of the ever-popular Going-to-the-Sun Road (GTSR), which crosses through 37 identified avalanche paths. Avalanche safety and forecasting is a necessary part of the GTSR spring opening procedures. An avalanche atlas detailing topographic parameters and oblique photographs was completed for the GTSR corridor in response to a request from GNP personnel for planning and resource management. Using ArcMap 9.2 GIS software, polygons were created for every avalanche path affecting the GTSR using aerial imagery, field-based observations, and GPS measurements of sub-meter accuracy. Spatial attributes for each path were derived within the GIS. Resulting products include an avalanche atlas book for operational use, a geoPDF of the atlas, and a Google Earth flyover illustrating each path and associated photographs. The avalanche atlas aids park management in worker safety, infrastructure planning, and natural resource protection by identifying avalanche path patterns and location. The atlas was created for operational and planning purposes and is also used as a foundation for research such as avalanche ecology projects and avalanche path runout modeling.

  5. Neuronal avalanches and learning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arcangelis, Lucilla de, E-mail: dearcangelis@na.infn.it [Department of Information Engineering and CNISM, Second University of Naples, 81031 Aversa (Italy)

    2011-05-01

    Networks of living neurons represent one of the most fascinating systems of biology. If the physical and chemical mechanisms at the basis of the functioning of a single neuron are quite well understood, the collective behaviour of a system of many neurons is an extremely intriguing subject. Crucial ingredient of this complex behaviour is the plasticity property of the network, namely the capacity to adapt and evolve depending on the level of activity. This plastic ability is believed, nowadays, to be at the basis of learning and memory in real brains. Spontaneous neuronal activity has recently shown features in common to other complex systems. Experimental data have, in fact, shown that electrical information propagates in a cortex slice via an avalanche mode. These avalanches are characterized by a power law distribution for the size and duration, features found in other problems in the context of the physics of complex systems and successful models have been developed to describe their behaviour. In this contribution we discuss a statistical mechanical model for the complex activity in a neuronal network. The model implements the main physiological properties of living neurons and is able to reproduce recent experimental results. Then, we discuss the learning abilities of this neuronal network. Learning occurs via plastic adaptation of synaptic strengths by a non-uniform negative feedback mechanism. The system is able to learn all the tested rules, in particular the exclusive OR (XOR) and a random rule with three inputs. The learning dynamics exhibits universal features as function of the strength of plastic adaptation. Any rule could be learned provided that the plastic adaptation is sufficiently slow.

  6. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  7. Analysis of avalanche risk factors in backcountry terrain based on usage frequency and accident data in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Techel, F.; Zweifel, B.; Winkler, K.

    2015-09-01

    Recreational activities in snow-covered mountainous terrain in the backcountry account for the vast majority of avalanche accidents. Studies analyzing avalanche risk mostly rely on accident statistics without considering exposure (or the elements at risk), i.e., how many, when and where people are recreating, as data on recreational activity in the winter mountains are scarce. To fill this gap, we explored volunteered geographic information on two social media mountaineering websites - bergportal.ch and camptocamp.org. Based on these data, we present a spatiotemporal pattern of winter backcountry touring activity in the Swiss Alps and compare this with accident statistics. Geographically, activity was concentrated in Alpine regions relatively close to the main Swiss population centers in the west and north. In contrast, accidents occurred equally often in the less-frequented inner-alpine regions. Weekends, weather and avalanche conditions influenced the number of recreationists, while the odds to be involved in a severe avalanche accident did not depend on weekends or weather conditions. However, the likelihood of being involved in an accident increased with increasing avalanche danger level, but also with a more unfavorable snowpack containing persistent weak layers (also referred to as an old snow problem). In fact, the most critical situation for backcountry recreationists and professionals occurred on days and in regions when both the avalanche danger was critical and when the snowpack contained persistent weak layers. The frequently occurring geographical pattern of a more unfavorable snowpack structure also explains the relatively high proportion of accidents in the less-frequented inner-alpine regions. These results have practical implications: avalanche forecasters should clearly communicate the avalanche danger and the avalanche problem to the backcountry user, particularly if persistent weak layers are of concern. Professionals and recreationists, on the

  8. Lumped transmission line avalanche pulser

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, Rex

    1995-01-01

    A lumped linear avalanche transistor pulse generator utilizes stacked transistors in parallel within a stage and couples a plurality of said stages, in series with increasing zener diode limited voltages per stage and decreasing balanced capacitance load per stage to yield a high voltage, high and constant current, very short pulse.

  9. STUDY ON SIMULATION METHOD OF AVALANCHE : FLOW ANALYSIS OF AVALANCHE USING PARTICLE METHOD

    OpenAIRE

    塩澤, 孝哉

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, modeling for the simulation of the avalanche by a particle method is discussed. There are two kinds of the snow avalanches, one is the surface avalanche which shows a smoke-like flow, and another is the total-layer avalanche which shows a flow like Bingham fluid. In the simulation of the surface avalanche, the particle method in consideration of a rotation resistance model is used. The particle method by Bingham fluid is used in the simulation of the total-layer avalanche. At t...

  10. Snow-avalanche modeling and hazard level assessment using statistical and physical modeling, DSS and WebGIS: case study from Czechia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blahut, J.; Balek, J.; Juras, R.; Klimes, J.; Klose, Z.; Roubinek, J.; Pavlasek, J.

    2014-12-01

    Snow-avalanche modeling and hazard level assessment are important issues to be solved within mountain regions worldwide. In Czechia, there are two mountain ranges (Krkonoše and Jeseníky Mountains), which suffer from regular avalanche activity every year. Mountain Rescue Service is responsible for issuing avalanche bulletins. However, its approaches are still lacking objective assessments and procedures for hazard level estimations. This lack is mainly caused by missing expert avalanche information system. This paper presents preliminary results from a project funded by the Ministry of Interior of the Czech Republic. This project is focused on development of an information system for snow-avalanche hazard level forecasting. It is composed of three main modules, which should act as a Decision Support System (DSS) for the Mountain Rescue Service. Firstly, snow-avalanche susceptibility model is used for delimiting areas where avalanches can occur based on accurate statistical analyses. For that purpose a waste database is used, containing more than 1100 avalanche events from 1961/62 till present. Secondly, a physical modeling of the avalanches is being performed on avalanche paths using RAMMS modeling code. Regular paths, where avalanches occur every year, and irregular paths are being assessed. Their footprint is being updated using return period information for each path. Thirdly, snow distribution and stability models (distributed HBV-ETH, Snowtran 3D, Snowpack and Alpine 3D) are used to assess the critical conditions for avalanche release. For calibration of the models data about meteo/snow cover data and snowpits is used. Those three parts are being coupled in a WebGIS platform used as the principal component of the DSS in snow-avalanche hazard level assessment.

  11. Velocity distribution in snow avalanches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishimura, K.; Ito, Y.

    1997-12-01

    In order to investigate the detailed structure of snow avalanches, we have made snow flow experiments at the Miyanomori ski jump in Sapporo and systematic observations in the Shiai-dani, Kurobe Canyon. In the winter of 1995-1996, a new device to measure static pressures was used to estimate velocities in the snow cloud that develops above the flowing layer of avalanches. Measurements during a large avalanche in the Shiai-dani which damaged and destroyed some instruments indicate velocities increased rapidly to more than 50 m/s soon after the front. Velocities decreased gradually in the following 10 s. Velocities of the lower flowing layer were also calculated by differencing measurement of impact pressure. Both recordings in the snow cloud and in the flowing layer changed with a similar trend and suggest a close interaction between the two layers. In addition, the velocity showed a periodic change. Power spectrum analysis of the impact pressure and the static pressure depression showed a strong peak at a frequency between 4 and 6 Hz, which might imply the existence of either ordered structure or a series of surges in the flow.

  12. Regional snow-avalanche detection using object-based image analysis of near-infrared aerial imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Korzeniowska

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Snow avalanches are destructive mass movements in mountain regions that continue to claim lives and cause infrastructural damage and traffic detours. Given that avalanches often occur in remote and poorly accessible steep terrain, their detection and mapping is extensive and time consuming. Nonetheless, systematic avalanche detection over large areas could help to generate more complete and up-to-date inventories (cadastres necessary for validating avalanche forecasting and hazard mapping. In this study, we focused on automatically detecting avalanches and classifying them into release zones, tracks, and run-out zones based on 0.25 m near-infrared (NIR ADS80-SH92 aerial imagery using an object-based image analysis (OBIA approach. Our algorithm takes into account the brightness, the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI, the normalised difference water index (NDWI, and its standard deviation (SDNDWI to distinguish avalanches from other land-surface elements. Using normalised parameters allows applying this method across large areas. We trained the method by analysing the properties of snow avalanches at three 4 km−2 areas near Davos, Switzerland. We compared the results with manually mapped avalanche polygons and obtained a user's accuracy of > 0.9 and a Cohen's kappa of 0.79–0.85. Testing the method for a larger area of 226.3 km−2, we estimated producer's and user's accuracies of 0.61 and 0.78, respectively, with a Cohen's kappa of 0.67. Detected avalanches that overlapped with reference data by > 80 % occurred randomly throughout the testing area, showing that our method avoids overfitting. Our method has potential for large-scale avalanche mapping, although further investigations into other regions are desirable to verify the robustness of our selected thresholds and the transferability of the method.

  13. Regional snow-avalanche detection using object-based image analysis of near-infrared aerial imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korzeniowska, Karolina; Bühler, Yves; Marty, Mauro; Korup, Oliver

    2017-10-01

    Snow avalanches are destructive mass movements in mountain regions that continue to claim lives and cause infrastructural damage and traffic detours. Given that avalanches often occur in remote and poorly accessible steep terrain, their detection and mapping is extensive and time consuming. Nonetheless, systematic avalanche detection over large areas could help to generate more complete and up-to-date inventories (cadastres) necessary for validating avalanche forecasting and hazard mapping. In this study, we focused on automatically detecting avalanches and classifying them into release zones, tracks, and run-out zones based on 0.25 m near-infrared (NIR) ADS80-SH92 aerial imagery using an object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach. Our algorithm takes into account the brightness, the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), the normalised difference water index (NDWI), and its standard deviation (SDNDWI) to distinguish avalanches from other land-surface elements. Using normalised parameters allows applying this method across large areas. We trained the method by analysing the properties of snow avalanches at three 4 km-2 areas near Davos, Switzerland. We compared the results with manually mapped avalanche polygons and obtained a user's accuracy of > 0.9 and a Cohen's kappa of 0.79-0.85. Testing the method for a larger area of 226.3 km-2, we estimated producer's and user's accuracies of 0.61 and 0.78, respectively, with a Cohen's kappa of 0.67. Detected avalanches that overlapped with reference data by > 80 % occurred randomly throughout the testing area, showing that our method avoids overfitting. Our method has potential for large-scale avalanche mapping, although further investigations into other regions are desirable to verify the robustness of our selected thresholds and the transferability of the method.

  14. Avalanches and Criticality in Driven Magnetic Skyrmions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz, S. A.; Reichhardt, C.; Arovas, D. P.; Saxena, A.; Reichhardt, C. J. O.

    2018-03-01

    We show using numerical simulations that slowly driven Skyrmions interacting with random pinning move via correlated jumps or avalanches. The avalanches exhibit power-law distributions in their duration and size, and the average avalanche shape for different avalanche durations can be scaled to a universal function, in agreement with theoretical predictions for systems in a nonequilibrium critical state. A distinctive feature of Skyrmions is the influence of the nondissipative Magnus term. When we increase the ratio of the Magnus term to the damping term, a change in the universality class of the behavior occurs, the average avalanche shape becomes increasingly asymmetric, and individual avalanches exhibit motion in the direction perpendicular to their own density gradient.

  15. Avalanche dynamics of elastic interfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Doussal, Pierre; Wiese, Kay Jörg

    2013-08-01

    Slowly driven elastic interfaces, such as domain walls in dirty magnets, contact lines wetting a nonhomogeneous substrate, or cracks in brittle disordered material proceed via intermittent motion, called avalanches. Here we develop a field-theoretic treatment to calculate, from first principles, the space-time statistics of instantaneous velocities within an avalanche. For elastic interfaces at (or above) their (internal) upper critical dimension d≥d(uc) (d(uc)=2,4 respectively for long-ranged and short-ranged elasticity) we show that the field theory for the center of mass reduces to the motion of a point particle in a random-force landscape, which is itself a random walk [Alessandro, Beatrice, Bertotti, and Montorsi (ABBM) model]. Furthermore, the full spatial dependence of the velocity correlations is described by the Brownian-force model (BFM) where each point of the interface sees an independent Brownian-force landscape. Both ABBM and BFM can be solved exactly in any dimension d (for monotonous driving) by summing tree graphs, equivalent to solving a (nonlinear) instanton equation. We focus on the limit of slow uniform driving. This tree approximation is the mean-field theory (MFT) for realistic interfaces in short-ranged disorder, up to the renormalization of two parameters at d=d(uc). We calculate a number of observables of direct experimental interest: Both for the center of mass, and for a given Fourier mode q, we obtain various correlations and probability distribution functions (PDF's) of the velocity inside an avalanche, as well as the avalanche shape and its fluctuations (second shape). Within MFT we find that velocity correlations at nonzero q are asymmetric under time reversal. Next we calculate, beyond MFT, i.e., including loop corrections, the one-time PDF of the center-of-mass velocity u[over ·] for dimension delasticity) and a=1-4/9(2-d)+... (long-ranged elasticity). We show how the dynamical theory recovers the avalanche-size distribution

  16. Terrain Classification of Norwegian Slab Avalanche Accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallandvik, Linda; Aadland, Eivind; Vikene, Odd Lennart

    2016-01-01

    It is difficult to rely on snow conditions, weather, and human factors when making judgments about avalanche risk because these variables are dynamic and complex; terrain, however, is more easily observed and interpreted. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate (1) the type of terrain in which historical fatal snow avalanche accidents in Norway…

  17. A Hidden Markov Model for avalanche forecasting on Chowkibal ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ) in J&K, India. Table 1. Summary statistics of the data used in the model. Average ... attempt to introduce snow pack information into the model. 3. Methodology. The HMM consists of two parts: • an unobserved state sequence S1, S2,...,Sn of.

  18. Frontal Dynamics of Powder Snow Avalanches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louge, M. Y.; Carroll, C. S.; Turnbull, B.

    2012-04-01

    We model the dynamics of the head of dilute powder snow avalanches sustained by a massive frontal blow-out, arising as a weakly cohesive snow cover is fluidized by the very pore pressure gradients that the avalanche induces within the snow pack. Such material eruption just behind the front acts as a source of denser fluid thrust into a uniform ambient air flow at high Reynolds number. In such "eruption current", fluidization depth is inversely proportional to a bulk Richardson number representing avalanche height. By excluding situations in which the snow cover is not fluidized up to its free surface, we derive a criterion combining snow pack friction and density indicating which avalanches can produce a sustainable powder cloud. A mass balance involving snow cover and powder cloud sets avalanche height and mean density. By determining which solution of the mass balance is stable, we find that avalanches reach constant growth and acceleration rates for fixed slope and avalanche width. Under these conditions, we calculate the fraction of the fluidized cover that is actually scoured and blown-out into the cloud, and deduce from a momentum balance on the head that the avalanche accelerates at a rate only 14% of the gravitational component along the flow. We also calculate how far a powder cloud travels until its mean density becomes constant. Finally, we show that the dynamics of powder snow avalanches are crucially affected by the rate of change of their width, for example by reaching an apparent steady speed as their channel widens. If such widening is rapid, or if slope inclination vanishes, we calculate where and how powder clouds collapse. Predictions agree well with observations of powder snow avalanches carried out at the Vallee de la Sionne (Switzerland).

  19. Energy and dissipated work in snow avalanches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartelt, P.; Buser, O.

    2004-12-01

    Using the results of large scale avalanche experiments at the Swiss Vallée de la Sionne test site, the energy balance of several snow avalanches is determined. Avalanches convert approximately one-seventh of their potential energy into kinetic energy. The total potential energy depends strongly on the entrained snowcover, indicating that entrainment processes cannot be ignored when predicting terminal velocities and runout distances. We find energy dissipation rates on the order of 1 GW. Fluidization of the fracture slab can be identified in the experiments as an increase in dissipation rate, thereby explaining the initial and rapid acceleration of avalanches after release. Interestingly, the dissipation rates appear to be constant along the track, although large fluctuations in internal velocity exist. Thus, we can demonstrate within the context of non-equilibrium thermodynamics that -- in space -- granular snow avalanches are irreversible, dissipative systems that minimize entropy production because they appear to reach a steady-state non-equilibrium. A thermodynamic analysis reveals that fluctuations in velocity depend on the roughness of the flow surface and viscosity of the granular system. We speculate that this property explains the transition from flowing avalanches to powder avalanches.

  20. Avalanches in vanadium sesquioxide nanodevices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Siming; Ramírez, Juan Gabriel; Schuller, Ivan K.

    2015-08-01

    The resistance versus temperature across the metal-insulator transition (MIT) of V2O3 nanodevices exhibits multiple discontinuous jumps. The jump sizes range over three orders of magnitude in resistance and their distribution follows a power law, implying that the MIT of V2O3 occurs through avalanches. While the maximum jump size depends on the device size, the power law exponent for V2O3 is independent of device geometry and different than the one found earlier in V O2 . A two-dimensional random percolation model exhibits a power law distribution different from the one found in V2O3 . Instead, the model gives a similar exponent found in another vanadium oxide, V O2 . Our results suggest that the MITs of V O2 and V2O3 are produced by different mechanisms.

  1. Continuum description of avalanches in granular media.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aranson, I. S.; Tsimring, L. S.

    2000-12-05

    A continuum theory of partially fluidized granular flows is proposed. The theory is based on a combination of the mass and momentum conservation equations with the order parameter equation which describes the transition between flowing and static components of the granular system. We apply this model to the dynamics of avalanches in chutes. The theory provides a quantitative description of recent observations of granular flows on rough inclined planes (Daerr and Douady 1999): layer bistability, and the transition from triangular avalanches propagating downhill at small inclination angles to balloon-shaped avalanches also propagating uphill for larger angles.

  2. Statistical Distributions of Electron Avalanches and Streamers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Ficker

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available A new theoretical concept of fractal multiplication of electron avalanches has resulted in forming a generalized distribution function whose multiparameter character has been subjected to detailed discussion. 

  3. Electromagnetic radiation field of an electron avalanche

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooray, Vernon; Cooray, Gerald

    2012-11-01

    Electron avalanches are the main constituent of electrical discharges in the atmosphere. However, the electromagnetic radiation field generated by a single electron avalanche growing in different field configurations has not yet been evaluated in the literature. In this paper, the electromagnetic radiation fields created by electron avalanches were evaluated for electric fields in pointed, co-axial and spherical geometries. The results show that the radiation field has a duration of approximately 1-2 ns, with a rise time in the range of 0.25 ns. The wave-shape takes the form of an initial peak followed by an overshoot in the opposite direction. The electromagnetic spectrum generated by the avalanches has a peak around 109 Hz.

  4. Statistics of Electron Avalanches and Streamers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Ficker

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We have studied the severe systematic deviations of populations of electron avalanches from the Furry distribution, which has been held to be the statistical law corresponding to them, and a possible explanation has been sought. A  new theoretical concept based on fractal avalanche multiplication has been proposed and is shown to be a convenient candidate for explaining these deviations from Furry statistics. 

  5. Catastrophic avalanches and methods of their control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Volodicheva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Definition of such phenomenon as “catastrophic avalanche” is presented in this arti-cle. Several situations with releases of catastrophic avalanches in mountains of Caucasus, Alps, and Central Asia are investigated. Materials of snow-avalanche ob-servations performed since 1960s at the Elbrus station of the Lomonosov Moscow State University (Central Caucasus were used for this work. Complex-valued measures of engineering protection demonstrating different efficiencies are consid-ered.

  6. Wet and full-depth glide snow avalanche onset monitoring and detection with ground based Ku-band radar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, Célia; Bühler, Yves; Leinss, Silvan; Hajnsek, Irena

    2017-04-01

    prone to wet and full-depth glide snow avalanches in the near future. Therefore in the current winter season, we attempt to automatically detect snowpack displacement and avalanche releases at Dorfberg. Automatic warnings issued by the radar about the presence and amount of displacement and information about location and altitude of creeping regions as well as released avalanches will be combined with simulated LWC (Liquid Water Content) for the observed area. This slope-specific knowledge will be evaluated for inclusion into the more regional avalanche bulletin issued by SLF. Two cameras capture photographs at 1 and 10 minute intervals respectively to reference the opening of optically visible tensile cracks and triggering of avalanches. [1] C. Lucas, Y. Buehler, A. Marino, I. Hajnsek: Investigation of Snow Avalanches wit Ground Based Ku-band Radar, EUSAR 2016; 11th European Conference on Synthetic Aperture Radar; Proceedings of, 2016 [2] R. Bamler, P. Hartl: Synthetic aperture radar interferometry, Inverse Problems, Vol. 14 R1-R54, 1988 [3] Y. Buehler, C. Pielmeier, R. Frauenfelder, C. Jaedicke, G. Bippus, A. Wiesmann and R. Caduff: Improved Alpine Avalanche Forecast Service AAF, Final Report, European Space Agency ESA, 2014 [4] R. Caduff, A. Wiesmann, Y. Buehler, and C. Pielmeier: Continuous monitoring of snowpack displacement at high spatial and temporal resolution with terrestrial radar interferometry, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 42, no. 3, 2015. [5] R. Caduff, A. Wiesmann, Y. Bühler, C. Bieler, and P. Limpach, "Terrestrial radar interferometry for snow glide activity monitoring and its potential as precursor of wet snow," in Interpraevent, 2016, pp. 239-248.

  7. Erosion dynamics of powder snow avalanches - Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sovilla, Betty; Louge, Michel

    2013-04-01

    Powder snow avalanches (PSA) entrain massive amounts of material from the underlying snow cover by erosion mechanisms that are not fully understood. Despite their inherent diversity, PSAs have recognizable flow features: they are fast, reaching velocity up to 80 m/s, they develop a tall, low density powder cloud and, at the same time, they can exert impact pressure with similar magnitudes of high density flow. In this talk, we report observations that underscore the interplay between entrainment and flow dynamics qualitatively shared by several PSAs at the Vallée de la Sionne test site in Switzerland. Measurements include time-histories of snow pack thickness with buried FMCW radar and time-histories of particle velocity using optical sensors, cloud density and cluster size using capacitance probes, and impact pressure measured at several elevations on a pylon. Measurements show that, at the avalanche front, a layer of light, cold and cohesionless snow is rapidly entrained, creating a turbulent and stratified head region with intermittent snow clusters. Fast and localized entrainment of deeper and warmer snow layers may also occur well behind the front, up to a distance of hundreds of meters, where pronounced stratification appears and snow clusters grow larger. In the avalanche head, impact pressure strongly fluctuates and is larger near the ground. Velocity profiles change throughout the avalanche head, with more abrupt changes localized where rapid entrainment occurs. A basal, continuous dense layer forms as deeper, warmer and denser snow cover is entrained and as suspended material starts to deposit. The thickness of the basal layer progressively increases toward the avalanche tail where, finally, deposition occurs en masse. Toward the avalanche tail, velocity profiles tend to become uniform, impact pressures are lower and nearly constant, while entrainment processes are negligible. These observations underscore the relevance of entrainment location and the

  8. Vulnerability assessment in avalanche hazardous areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frigo, B.; De Biagi, V.; Chiaia, B.

    2012-04-01

    Until a few decades ago, damages and human losses related to the avalanche risk represented only a small part of the destructive effects produced each year by natural events. Nowadays, on the contrary, the situation has considerably changed due to growing of the built-up areas and human presence in the mountain environment: this fact increases the current avalanche risk and puts snow avalanches and hydro-geological risks (floods, landslides, rock falls, etc…) at the same importance level. To mitigate the effects, Authorities provide both specific policies for urban development and mountain land use and simple but reliable methodologies to define the avalanche risk. As is well known, risk can be defined as the product of three factors: the environmental danger P (probability that a given phenomenon with its catastrophic intensity occurs in a specific area and time), the vulnerability V (degree of loss of one or more elements by a natural phenomenon of a known magnitude) and the exposure E (measure of the exposed value for each vulnerable element). A novel approach for the evaluation of the "Vulnerability factor" of a new or existing building under avalanche hazard by considering its structural (materials, strength and robustness, etc…) and architectural (shape, exposure, etc…) peculiarities is presented. A real avalanche event occurred in December, 2008 in Aosta Valley, which caused the total collapse of a building is taken as an example for tesing the effectiveness of the proposed risk assessment. By means of photographical analysis on undamaged parts, local surveys and debris arrangement, the impact pressure and the collapse dynamics are back-analyzed. The results are commented and comparisons between the damages and Vulnerability factor are made.

  9. Criticality and avalanches in neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zare, Marzieh; Grigolini, Paolo

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Temporal criticality is used as criticality indicator. • The Mittag–Leffler function is proposed as a proper form of temporal complexity. • The distribution of avalanche size becomes scale free in the supercritical state. • The scale-free distribution of avalanche sizes is an epileptic manifestation. -- Abstract: Experimental work, both in vitro and in vivo, reveals the occurrence of neural avalanches with an inverse power law distribution in size and time duration. These properties are interpreted as an evident manifestation of criticality, thereby suggesting that the brain is an operating near criticality complex system: an attractive theoretical perspective that according to Gerhard Werner may help to shed light on the origin of consciousness. However, a recent experimental observation shows no clear evidence for power-law scaling in awake and sleeping brain of mammals, casting doubts on the assumption that the brain works at criticality. This article rests on a model proposed by our group in earlier publications to generate neural avalanches with the time duration and size distribution matching the experimental results on neural networks. We now refine the analysis of the time distance between consecutive firing bursts and observe the deviation of the corresponding distribution from the Poisson statistics, as the system moves from the non-cooperative to the cooperative regime. In other words, we make the assumption that the genuine signature of criticality may emerge from temporal complexity rather than from the size and time duration of avalanches. We argue that the Mittag–Leffler (ML) exponential function is a satisfactory indicator of temporal complexity, namely of the occurrence of non-Poisson and renewal events. The assumption that the onset of criticality corresponds to the birth of renewal non-Poisson events establishes a neat distinction between the ML function and the power law avalanches generating regime. We find that

  10. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    indicated that forecasting experience has little relationship to forecasting performance. In the latter three studies, neophyte forecasters became... Europe . Within a few months after a new commander was assigned, this unit’s performance rose to first place in the theater and remained there

  11. Real time avalanche detection for high risk areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    Avalanches routinely occur on State Highway 21 (SH21) between Lowman and Stanley, Idaho each winter. The avalanches pose : a threat to the safety of maintenance workers and the traveling public. A real-time avalanche detection system will allow the :...

  12. Assessing the importance of terrain parameters on glide avalanche release

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peitzsch, Erich H.; Hendrikx, Jordy; Fagre, Daniel B.

    2014-01-01

    Glide snow avalanches are dangerous and difficult to predict. Despite recent research there is still a lack of understanding regarding the controls of glide avalanche release. Glide avalanches often occur in similar terrain or the same locations annually and observations suggest that topography may be critical. Thus, to gain an understanding of the terrain component of these types of avalanches we examined terrain parameters associated with glide avalanche release as well as areas of consistent glide crack formation but no subsequent avalanches. Glide avalanche occurrences visible from the Going-to-the-Sun Road corridor in Glacier National Park, Montana from 2003-2013 were investigated using an avalanche database derived of daily observations each year from April 1 to June 15. This yielded 192 glide avalanches in 53 distinct avalanche paths. Each avalanche occurrence was digitized in a GIS using satellite, oblique, and aerial imagery as reference. Topographical parameters such as area, slope, aspect, elevation and elevation were then derived for the entire dataset utilizing GIS tools and a 10m DEM. Land surface substrate and surface geology were derived from National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring maps and U.S. Geological Survey surface geology maps, respectively. Surface roughness and glide factor were calculated using a four level classification index. . Then, each avalanche occurrence was aggregated to general avalanche release zones and the frequencies were compared. For this study, glide avalanches released in elevations ranging from 1300 to 2700 m with a mean aspect of 98 degrees (east) and a mean slope angle of 38 degrees. The mean profile curvature for all glide avalanches was 0.15 and a plan curvature of -0.01, suggesting a fairly linear surface (i.e. neither convex nor concave). The glide avalanches occurred in mostly bedrock made up of dolomite and limestone slabs and talus deposits with very few occurring in alpine meadows. However, not all glide

  13. Oscillatory regime of avalanche particle detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukin, K.A.; Cerdeira, H.A.; Colavita, A.A.

    1995-06-01

    We describe the model of an avalanche high energy particle detector consisting of two pn-junctions, connected through an intrinsic semiconductor with a reverse biased voltage applied. We show that this detector is able to generate the oscillatory response on the single particle passage through the structure. The possibility of oscillations leading to chaotic behaviour is pointed out. (author). 15 refs, 7 figs

  14. Avalanche photodiodes for the CMS electromagnetic calorimeter

    CERN Document Server

    Organtini, G

    1999-01-01

    Avalanche Photodiodes (APDs) will be used as photodetectors for the CMS crystal barrel calorimeter, made of lead tungstate (PWO) scintillating crystals. After two years of strong R&D effort a significant progress was achieved, in collaboration with manufacturers, in the relevant properties of the device for LHC applications. Quantum efficiency, noise contributions and radiation resistance measurements of APDs are presented.

  15. Nano-multiplication region avalanche photodiodes and arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Xinyu (Inventor); Pain, Bedabrata (Inventor); Cunningham, Thomas J. (Inventor)

    2011-01-01

    An avalanche photodiode with a nano-scale reach-through structure comprising n-doped and p-doped regions, formed on a silicon island on an insulator, so that the avalanche photodiode may be electrically isolated from other circuitry on other silicon islands on the same silicon chip as the avalanche photodiode. For some embodiments, multiplied holes generated by an avalanche reduces the electric field in the depletion region of the n-doped and p-doped regions to bring about self-quenching of the avalanche photodiode. Other embodiments are described and claimed.

  16. Load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mak, H.

    1995-01-01

    Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

  17. Snow drift: acoustic sensors for avalanche warning and research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Lehning

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on wind tunnel measurements at the CSTB (Jules Verne facility in Nantes and based on field observations at the SLF experimental site Versuchsfeld Weissfluhjoch, two acoustic wind drift sensors are evaluated against different mechanical snow traps and one optical snow particle counter. The focus of the work is the suitability of the acoustic sensors for applications such as avalanche warning and research. Although the acoustic sensors have not yet reached the accuracy required for typical research applications, they can, however, be useful for snow drift monitoring to help avalanche forecasters. The main problem of the acoustic sensors is a difficult calibration that has to take into account the variable snow properties. Further difficulties arise from snow fall and high wind speeds. However, the sensor is robust and can be operated remotely under harsh conditions. It is emphasized that due to the lack of an accurate reference method for snow drift measurements, all sensors play a role in improving and evaluating snow drift models. Finally, current operational snow drift models and snow drift sensors are compared with respect to their usefulness as an aid for avalanche warning. While drift sensors always make a point measurement, the models are able to give a more representative drift index that is valid for a larger area. Therefore, models have the potential to replace difficult observations such as snow drift in operational applications. Current models on snow drift are either only applicable in flat terrain, are still too complex for an operational application (Lehning et al., 2000b, or offer only limited information on snow drift, such as the SNOWPACK drift index (Lehning et al., 2000a. On the other hand, snow drift is also difficult to measure. While mechanical traps (Mellor 1960; Budd et al., 1966 are probably still the best reference, they require more or less continuous manual operation and are thus not suitable for remote locations

  18. Avalanches in functional materials and geophysics

    CERN Document Server

    Saxena, Avadh; Planes, Antoni

    2017-01-01

    This book provides the state-of-the art of the present understanding of avalanche phenomena in both functional materials and geophysics. The main emphasis of the book is analyzing these apparently different problems within the common perspective of out-of-equilibrium phenomena displaying spatial and temporal complexity that occur in a broad range of scales. Many systems, when subjected to an external force, respond intermittently in the form of avalanches that often span over a wide range of sizes, energies and durations. This is often related to a class of critical behavior characterized by the absence of characteristic scales. Typical examples are magnetization processes, plastic deformation and failure occuring in functional materials. These phenomena share many similarities with seismicity arising from the earth crust failure due to stresses that originate from plate tectonics.

  19. Avalanche Dynamics of Radio Pulsar Glitches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melatos, A.; Peralta, C.; Wyithe, J. S. B.

    2008-01-01

    We test statistically the hypothesis that radio pulsar glitches result from an avalanche process, in which angular momentum is transferred erratically from the flywheel-like superfluid in the star to the slowly decelerating, solid crust via spatially connected chains of local, impulsive, threshold-activated events, so that the system fluctuates around a self-organized critical state. Analysis of the glitch population (currently 285 events from 101 pulsars) demonstrates that the size distribution in individual pulsars is consistent with being scale invariant, as expected for an avalanche process. The measured power-law exponents fall in the range -0.13 age. The rate distribution itself is fitted reasonably well by an exponential for λ >= 0.25 yr-1, with langle λ rangle = 1.3+ 0.7-0.6 yr-1. For λ 0.25 yr-1 must exceed ~70%.

  20. GEM scintillation readout with avalanche photodiodes

    CERN Document Server

    Conceição, A S; Fernandes, L M P; Monteiro, C M B; Coelho, L C C; Azevedo, C D R; Veloso, J F C A; Lopesac, J A M; dos Santosa, J M F

    2007-01-01

    The use of the scintillation produced in the charge avalanches in GEM holes as signal amplification and readout is investigated for xenon. A VUV-sensitive avalanche photodiode has been used as photosensor. Detector gains of about 4 × 104 are achieved in scintillation readout mode, for GEM voltages of 490 V and for a photosensor gain of 150. Those gains are more than one order of magnitude larger than what is obtained using charge readout. In addition, the energy resolutions achieved with the scintillation readout are lower than those achieved with charge readout. The GEM scintillation yield in xenon was measured as a function of GEM voltage, presenting values that are about a half of those achieved for the charge yield, and reach about 730 photons per primary electron at GEM voltages of 490 V.

  1. Avalanches in Mn12-Acetate: ``Magnetic Burning"

    Science.gov (United States)

    McHugh, Sean; Suzuki, Y.; Graybill, D.; Sarachik, M. P.; Avraham, N.; Myasoedov, Y.; Shtrikman, H.; Zeldov, E.; Bagai, R.; Chakov, N. E.; Christou, G.

    2006-03-01

    From local time-resolved measurements of fast reversal of the magnetization in single crystals of the molecular magnet Mn12-acetate, we have shown[1] that the magnetization avalanche spreads as a narrow interface that propagates through the crystal at a constant velocity roughly two orders of magnitude smaller than the speed of sound. This phenomenon is closely analogous to the propagation of a flame front (deflagration) through a flammable chemical substance. The propagation speed of the avalanche depends on the energy stored in each molecule, which can be controlled and tuned using an external magnetic field. We report studies of propagation speed with different external fields in Mn12-acetate. [1] Yoko Suzuki, M.P. Sarachik, E.M. Chudnovsky, S. McHugh, R. Gonzalez-Rubio, N. Avraham, Y. Myasoedov, H. Shtrikman, E. Zeldov, N.E. Chakov and G. Christou, Phys. Rev. Lett. 95, 147201 (2005).

  2. A position sensitive parallel plate avalanche counter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lombardi, M.; Tan Jilian; Potenza, R.; D'amico, V.

    1986-01-01

    A position sensitive parallel plate avalanche counter with a distributed constant delay-line-cathode (PSAC) is described. The strips formed on the printed board were served as the cathode and the delay line for readout of signals. The detector (PSAC) was operated in isobutane gas at the pressure range from 10 to 20 torr. The position resolution is better than 1 mm and the time resolution is about 350 ps, for 252 Cf fission-spectrum source

  3. New advances for modelling the debris avalanches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuomo, Sabatino; Cascini, Leonardo; Pastor, Manuel; Castorino, Giuseppe Claudio

    2013-04-01

    Flow-like landslides are a major global hazard and they occur worldwide causing a large number of casualties, significant structural damages to property and infrastructures as well as economic losses. When involving open slopes, these landslides often occur in triangular source areas where initial slides turn into avalanches through further failures and/or eventual soil entrainment. This paper deals with the numerical modelling of the propagation stage of debris avalanches which provides information such as the propagation pattern of the mobilized material, its velocity, thickness and run-out distance. In the paper, a "depth integrated" model is used which allows: i) adequately taking into account the irregular topography of real slopes which greatly affect the propagation stage and ii) using a less time consuming model than fully 3D approaches. The used model is named "GeoFlow_SPH" and it was formerly applied to theoretical, experimental and real case histories (Pastor et al., 2009; Cascini et al., 2012). In this work the behavior of debris avalanches is analyzed with special emphasis on the apical angle, one of the main features of this type of landslide, in relation to soil rheology, hillslope geometry and features of triggering area. Furthermore, the role of erosion has been investigated with reference to the uppermost parts of open slopes with a different steepness. These analyses are firstly carried out for simplified benchmark slopes, using both water-like materials (with no shear strength) and debris type materials. Then, three important case studies of Campania region (Cervinara, Nocera Inferiore e Sarno) are analyzed where debris avalanches involved pyroclastic soils originated from the eruptive products of Vesusius volcano. The results achieved for both benchmark slopes and real case histories outline the key role played by the erosion on the whole propagation stage of debris avalanches. The results are particularly satisfactory since they indicate the

  4. Anthropogenic effect on avalanche and debris flow activity

    OpenAIRE

    S. A. Sokratov; Yu. G. Seliverstov; A. L. Shnyparkov; K. P. Koltermann

    2013-01-01

    The paper presents examples of the change in snow avalanches and debris flows activity due to the anthropogenic pressure on vegetation and relief. The changes in dynamical characteristics of selected snow avalanches and debris flows due to the anthropogenic activity are quantified. The conclusion is made that the anthropogenic effects on the snow avalanches and debris flows activity are more pronounced than the possible effects of the climate change. The necessity is expressed on the unavoida...

  5. Multiphonon absorption and photon avalanche criterion in erbium doped materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auzel, F.

    1996-01-01

    The photon avalanche effect has been recently observed at room temperature in erbium doped fluoride glasses and crystals, in a particularly clear way, displaying simultaneously all the typical features of this effect: (i) existence of a threshold for transmission at the excitation wavelength, (ii) up-conversion excitation threshold, (iii) long delay for threshold establishment. Analysing the first step of the avalanche effect as an anti-Stokes multiphonon absorption, it can be shown why this effect is so clearly observed at room temperature in our erbium studies. Our results are compared with other cases of avalanche, with cases which have been called ''looping effects'' and ''quasi-avalanche'' ones. (author)

  6. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts......Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...

  7. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  8. Assessment and mapping of snow avalanche risk in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seliverstov, Yuri; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Shnyparkov, Alexander; Vilchek, Yana; Sergeeva, Ksenia; Martynov, Alexei

    The term 'risk' can be defined as the probability of unfavourable consequences or negative effects. Risk can be expressed by means of various indices, such as collective or social risk (possible number of dead), individual risk (probability of a person's death within a certain territory during 1 year), probability of losses, etc. This paper is a case study of the small-scale assessment and mapping of individual avalanche risk focused on the two regions of Russia with the highest levels of avalanche activity: the northern Caucasus and the mountainous parts of Sakhalin island. The basic indices applied for individual avalanche risk estimation are: recurrence interval of avalanches (avalanche frequency), percentage of the whole investigated territory that is occupied by avalanche-prone areas, duration of avalanche danger period, probability of a person's stay in an avalanche-prone area during 1 day (24 hours) and during 1 year, total population of the area and its density. The results of individual avalanche risk assessment, undertaken for the territory of Russia as a whole, show that its values generally do not exceed the admissible level (from 1 × 10-6 to 1 × 10-4). However, some areas of the northern Caucasus, including famous alpine skiing resorts (Krasnaya Poliana, Dombai, the Mount Elbrus region, etc.), and of Sakhalin, including the environs of towns (Kholmsk, Nevel'sk) and other smaller human settlements, are characterized by an unacceptable level of risk. In the aggregate, areas with an unacceptable (>1 × 10-4) level of individual avalanche risk comprise about 7% of the whole avalanche-prone territory of the northern Caucasus, those with an admissible level comprise 52% and those with an acceptable level (<1 × 10-6) 41%. The corresponding values for Sakhalin are 0.1%, 14.8% and 85.1%.

  9. Type-II Superlattice Avalanche Photodiodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jun

    Type-II superlattice avalanche photodiodes have shown advantages compared to conventional mercury cadmium telluride photodiodes for infrared wavelength detection. However, surface or interface leakage current has been a major issue for superlattice avalanche photodiodes, especially in infrared wavelength region. First, passivation of the superlattice device with ammonium sulfide and thioacetamide was carried out, and its surface quality was studied by X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy. The study showed that both ammonium sulfide and thiacetamide passivation can actively remove the native oxide at the surface. Thiacetamide passivation combine more sulfur bonds with III-V elements than that of ammonium sulfide. Another X-ray photoelectron spectra of thiacetamide-treated atomic layer deposited zinc sulfide capped InAs/GaSb superlattice was performed to investigate the interface sulfur bond conditions. Sb--S and As--S bonds disappear while In-S bond gets enhanced, indicating that Indium Sulfide should be the major components at the interface after ZnS deposition. Second, the simulation of electrical characteristics for zinc sulfide, silicon nitride and silicon dioxide passivated superlattice devices was performed by SILVACO software to fit the experimental results and to discover the surface current mechanism. Different surface current mechanism strengths were found. Third, several novel dual-carrier avalanche photodiode structures were designed and simulated. The structures had alternate carrier multiplication regions, placed next to a wider electron multiplication region, creating dual-carrier multiplication feedback systems. Gain and excess noise factor of these structures were simulated and compared based on the dead space multiplication theory under uniform electric field. From the simulation, the applied bias can be greatly lowered or the thickness can be shrunk to achieve the same gain from the conventional device. The width of the thin region was the most

  10. TCAD simulation of Low Gain Avalanche Detectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dalal, Ranjeet; Jain, Geetika; Bhardwaj, Ashutosh, E-mail: ashutosh.bhardwaj@cern.ch; Ranjan, Kirti

    2016-11-11

    In the present work, detailed simulation using Technology Computer Aided Design (TCAD) tool, Silvaco for non-irradiated and irradiated LGAD (Low Gain Avalanche Detector) devices has been carried out. The effects of different design parameters and proton irradiation on LGAD operation are discussed in detail. An already published effective two trap bulk damage model is used to simulate the radiation damage without implementing any acceptor removal term. The TCAD simulation for irradiated LGAD devices produce decreasing gain with increasing fluence, similar to the measurement results. The space charge density and electric field distribution are used to illustrate the possible reasons for the degradation of gain of the irradiated LGAD devices.

  11. TCAD simulation of Low Gain Avalanche Detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dalal, Ranjeet; Jain, Geetika; Bhardwaj, Ashutosh; Ranjan, Kirti

    2016-01-01

    In the present work, detailed simulation using Technology Computer Aided Design (TCAD) tool, Silvaco for non-irradiated and irradiated LGAD (Low Gain Avalanche Detector) devices has been carried out. The effects of different design parameters and proton irradiation on LGAD operation are discussed in detail. An already published effective two trap bulk damage model is used to simulate the radiation damage without implementing any acceptor removal term. The TCAD simulation for irradiated LGAD devices produce decreasing gain with increasing fluence, similar to the measurement results. The space charge density and electric field distribution are used to illustrate the possible reasons for the degradation of gain of the irradiated LGAD devices.

  12. TCAD simulation of Low Gain Avalanche Detectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalal, Ranjeet; Jain, Geetika; Bhardwaj, Ashutosh; Ranjan, Kirti

    2016-11-01

    In the present work, detailed simulation using Technology Computer Aided Design (TCAD) tool, Silvaco for non-irradiated and irradiated LGAD (Low Gain Avalanche Detector) devices has been carried out. The effects of different design parameters and proton irradiation on LGAD operation are discussed in detail. An already published effective two trap bulk damage model is used to simulate the radiation damage without implementing any acceptor removal term. The TCAD simulation for irradiated LGAD devices produce decreasing gain with increasing fluence, similar to the measurement results. The space charge density and electric field distribution are used to illustrate the possible reasons for the degradation of gain of the irradiated LGAD devices.

  13. Tuning magnetization avalanches in Mn12-acetate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Bo; McHugh, S.; Ma, Xiang; Sarachik, M. P.; Myasoedov, Y.; Shtrikman, H.; Zeldov, E.; Bagai, R.; Christou, G.

    2009-03-01

    We report the results of a systematic study of magnetic avalanches (abrupt magnetization reversals) in the molecular magnet Mn12-acetate using a micron-sized Hall sensor array. Measurements were taken for: (a) fixed magnetic field (constant barrier against spin reversal); and (b) fixed energy release obtained by adjusting the barrier and δM. A detailed comparison with the theory of magnetic deflagration of Garanin and Chudnovsky [1] will be presented and discussed. [1] D. A. Garanin and E. M. Chudnovsky, Phys. Rev. B 76, 054410 (2007)

  14. EXTREME WINTERS IN XX–XXI CENTURIES AS INDICATORS OF SNOWINESS AND AVALANCHE HAZARD IN THE PAST AND EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. D. Oleynikov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently, due to the global climate change and increasing frequency of weather events focus is on prediction of climate extremes. Large-scale meteorological anomalies can cause long-term paralysis of social and economic infrastructure of the major mountain regions and even individual states. In winter periods, these anomalies are associated with prolonged heavy snowfalls and associated with them catastrophic avalanches which cause significant social and economic damage. The climate system maintains a certain momentum during periods of adjustment and transition to other conditions in the ratio of heat and moisture and contains a climate «signal» of the climates of the past and the future. In our view seasonal and yearly extremes perform the role of these indicators, study of which enables for a deeper understanding and appreciation of the real situation of the climate periods related to the modern ones. The paper provides an overview of the criteria for selection of extreme winters. Identification of extremely cold winters during the period of instrumental observation and assessment of their snowiness and avalanche activity done for the Elbrus region, which is a model site for study of the avalanche regime in the Central Caucasus. The studies aim to identify the extreme winters in the Greater Caucasus, assess their frequency of occurrence, characterize the scale and intensity of the avalanche formation. The data obtained can be used to identify winter-analogues in the reconstruction and long-term forecast of avalanches

  15. Validation of DEM prediction for granular avalanches on irregular terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mead, Stuart R.; Cleary, Paul W.

    2015-09-01

    Accurate numerical simulation can provide crucial information useful for a greater understanding of destructive granular mass movements such as rock avalanches, landslides, and pyroclastic flows. It enables more informed and relatively low cost investigation of significant risk factors, mitigation strategy effectiveness, and sensitivity to initial conditions, material, or soil properties. In this paper, a granular avalanche experiment from the literature is reanalyzed and used as a basis to assess the accuracy of discrete element method (DEM) predictions of avalanche flow. Discrete granular approaches such as DEM simulate the motion and collisions of individual particles and are useful for identifying and investigating the controlling processes within an avalanche. Using a superquadric shape representation, DEM simulations were found to accurately reproduce transient and static features of the avalanche. The effect of material properties on the shape of the avalanche deposit was investigated. The simulated avalanche deposits were found to be sensitive to particle shape and friction, with the particle shape causing the sensitivity to friction to vary. The importance of particle shape, coupled with effect on the sensitivity to friction, highlights the importance of quantifying and including particle shape effects in numerical modeling of granular avalanches.

  16. High voltage short plus generation based on avalanche circuit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Yuanfeng; Yu Xiaoqi

    2006-01-01

    Simulate the avalanche circuit in series with PSPICE module, design the high voltage short plus generation circuit by avalanche transistor in series for the sweep deflection circuit of streak camera. The output voltage ranges 1.2 KV into 50 ohm load. The rise time of the circuit is less than 3 ns. (authors)

  17. Electric field distribution and simulation of avalanche formation due ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. Electric field distributions and their role in the formation of avalanche due to the passage of heavy ions in parallel grid avalanche type wire chamber detectors are evaluated using a Monte Carlo simulation. The relative merits and demerits of parallel and crossed wire grid configurations are studied. It is found that ...

  18. Electric field distribution and simulation of avalanche formation due ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Electric field distributions and their role in the formation of avalanche due to the passage of heavy ions in parallel grid avalanche type wire chamber detectors are evaluated using a Monte Carlo simulation. The relative merits and demerits of parallel and crossed wire grid configurations are studied. It is found that the crossed ...

  19. Electric field distribution and simulation of avalanche formation due ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Avalanche propagation; gas gain; parallel grid avalanche counter. PACS Nos 29.40.Cs, 51.50.+v, 52.80.Dy. 1. Introduction. Multiwire detectors have evolved into several configurations depending on the physics goal of the experiments. In the pioneering work of George Charpak et al [1], the detector was developed for high ...

  20. Avalanche transmission and critical behaviour in load-bearing ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The strength and stability properties of hierarchical load-bearing networks and their strengthened variants have been discussed in a recent work. Here, we study the avalanche time distributions on these load-bearing networks. The avalanche time distributions of the V-lattice, a unique realization of the networks, show ...

  1. Townsend coefficients of gases in avalanche counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brunner, G.

    1978-01-01

    Though much work has been done by many authors in the last few years in the development and application of avalanche counters for ion radiation, it is based upon values of the Townsend coefficients as the essential gas parameter, which were determined many years ago for much lower reduced field strengths F/p than prevail in such counters. Therefore absolute determinations of α in vapours of methyl alcohol, cyclohexane, acetone, and n-heptene were performed under original conditions of avalanche counters. The values obtained do not differ by more than 30%-50% from the former values indeed, extrapolated over F/p for the first three mentioned substances, but the amounts of A and B in the usual representation α/p=A exp(-B(F/p)) are much greater for the stronger reduced fields. This is of importance for such counter properties as the dependence of pulse heights on pressure, voltage, electrode distance etc., which are governed by other combinations of A and B than α/p itself. A comparison of results for different ionic radiations shows a marked influence of the primary ionization density along the particle tracks which is hard to explain. (Auth.)

  2. Similar Hamiltonian Between Avalanche-effect & Sociophysics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksoed, Ssi, Wh-

    2016-05-01

    Of similar Hamiltonian concerned in ``sociophysics'', there were RandomFieldIsingModel/RFIM in external field retrieved in S. Sabhapandit:``Hysteresis & Avalanche in RandomFieldIsingModel'',2002:'' ..in earthquake, it is an energy release and in case of ferromagnet, it is the size of the domain flips''. Following the extremes & compromises curve in Serge Galam: ``Sociophysics: a Review of Galam Model'', 2008 fig. 12, h 9 whereas it seems similar with ``heating curve''-Prof. Ir. Abdul Kadir: ``Mesin Arus Searah'', h 192 when the heat sources are continuous denote continuous opinion dynamics. Further, hysteresis as duties in ``Kajian Analisis Model Mikromagnetik dari Struktur Magnet Nanokomposit'', 2007 [ UI file no. S29286 ] also sought:'' calculate the probability that `one more site became unstable' causes an avalanche of the spin flips...'' usually found in Per Bak sand-pile fractal characters experiment exhibits. Great acknowledgment to HE. Mr. LieutGen-TNI[rtd]. H. TUK SETYOHADI, +62-21-7220385, Jl. Sriwijaya Raya 3, Kebayoran Baru, South-Jakarta.

  3. Reducing financial avalanches by random investments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biondo, Alessio Emanuele; Pluchino, Alessandro; Rapisarda, Andrea; Helbing, Dirk

    2013-12-01

    Building on similarities between earthquakes and extreme financial events, we use a self-organized criticality-generating model to study herding and avalanche dynamics in financial markets. We consider a community of interacting investors, distributed in a small-world network, who bet on the bullish (increasing) or bearish (decreasing) behavior of the market which has been specified according to the S&P 500 historical time series. Remarkably, we find that the size of herding-related avalanches in the community can be strongly reduced by the presence of a relatively small percentage of traders, randomly distributed inside the network, who adopt a random investment strategy. Our findings suggest a promising strategy to limit the size of financial bubbles and crashes. We also obtain that the resulting wealth distribution of all traders corresponds to the well-known Pareto power law, while that of random traders is exponential. In other words, for technical traders, the risk of losses is much greater than the probability of gains compared to those of random traders.

  4. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  5. Avalanche situation in Turkey and back calculation of selected events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aydin, A.; Bühler, Y.; Christen, M.; Gürer, I.

    2014-05-01

    In Turkey, an average of 24 people die in snow avalanches every year, mainly in the eastern part of Anatolia and in the eastern Black Sea region, where high-mountain ranges are close to the sea. The proportion of people killed in buildings is very high (87%), especially in comparison to other European countries and North America. In this paper we discuss avalanche occurrence, the climatic situation and historical avalanche events in Turkey; in addition, we identify bottlenecks and suggest solutions to tackle avalanche problems. Furthermore, we have applied the numerical avalanche simulation software RAMMS (rapid mass movements simulation) combined with a (digital elevation model) DEM-based potential release zone identification algorithm to analyze the catastrophic avalanche events in the villages of Üzengili (Bayburt province) in 1993 and Yaylaönü (Trabzon province) in 1981. The results demonstrate the value of such an approach for regions with poor avalanche databases, enabling the calculation of different scenarios and the estimation of run-out distances, impact pressure and flow height.

  6. Anthropogenic effect on avalanche and debris flow activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Sokratov

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents examples of the change in snow avalanches and debris flows activity due to the anthropogenic pressure on vegetation and relief. The changes in dynamical characteristics of selected snow avalanches and debris flows due to the anthropogenic activity are quantified. The conclusion is made that the anthropogenic effects on the snow avalanches and debris flows activity are more pronounced than the possible effects of the climate change. The necessity is expressed on the unavoidable changes of the natural environment as the result of a construction and of use of the constructed infrastructure to be account for in corresponding planning of the protection measures.

  7. Avalanche localization and its effects in proportional counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, J.; Okuno, H.; Walenta, A.H.

    1977-11-01

    Avalanche development around the anode wire in a gas proportional counter is investigated. In the region of proportional gas amplification, the avalanche is found to be well localized on one side of the anode wire, where the electrons arrive along the field lines from the point of primary ionization. Induced signals on electrodes surrounding the anode wire are used to measure the azimuthal position of the avalanche on the anode wire. Practical applications of the phenomena such as left-right assignment in drift chambers and measurement of the angular direction of the primary ionization electrons drifting towards the anode wire are discussed

  8. ELECTRON AVALANCHE MODEL OF DIELECTRIC-VACUUM SURFACE BREAKDOWN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lauer, E J

    2007-02-21

    The model assumes that an 'initiating event' results in positive ions on the surface near the anode and reverses the direction of the normal component of electric field so that electrons in vacuum are attracted to the dielectric locally. A sequence of surface electron avalanches progresses in steps from the anode to the cathode. For 200 kV across 1 cm, the spacing of avalanches is predicted to be about 13 microns. The time for avalanches to step from the anode to the cathode is predicted to be about a ns.

  9. Snow fracture in relation to slab avalanche release: critical state for the onset of crack propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaume, Johan; van Herwijnen, Alec; Chambon, Guillaume; Wever, Nander; Schweizer, Jürg

    2017-01-01

    The failure of a weak snow layer buried below cohesive slab layers is a necessary, but insufficient, condition for the release of a dry-snow slab avalanche. The size of the crack in the weak layer must also exceed a critical length to propagate across a slope. In contrast to pioneering shear-based approaches, recent developments account for weak layer collapse and allow for better explaining typical observations of remote triggering from low-angle terrain. However, these new models predict a critical length for crack propagation that is almost independent of slope angle, a rather surprising and counterintuitive result. Based on discrete element simulations we propose a new analytical expression for the critical crack length. This new model reconciles past approaches by considering for the first time the complex interplay between slab elasticity and the mechanical behavior of the weak layer including its structural collapse. The crack begins to propagate when the stress induced by slab loading and deformation at the crack tip exceeds the limit given by the failure envelope of the weak layer. The model can reproduce crack propagation on low-angle terrain and the decrease in critical length with increasing slope angle as modeled in numerical experiments. The good agreement of our new model with extensive field data and the ease of implementation in the snow cover model SNOWPACK opens a promising prospect for improving avalanche forecasting.

  10. SiC Avalanche Photodiodes and Arrays Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Aymont Technology, Inc. (Aymont) will demonstrate the feasibility of SiC p-i-n avalanche photodiodes (APD) arrays. Aymont will demonstrate 4 x 4 arrays of 2 mm2 APDs...

  11. Relation of the runaway avalanche threshold to momentum space topology

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDevitt, Christopher J.; Guo, Zehua; Tang, Xian-Zhu

    2018-02-01

    The underlying physics responsible for the formation of an avalanche instability due to the generation of secondary electrons is studied. A careful examination of the momentum space topology of the runaway electron population is carried out with an eye toward identifying how qualitative changes in the momentum space of the runaway electrons is correlated with the avalanche threshold. It is found that the avalanche threshold is tied to the merger of an O and X point in the momentum space of the primary runaway electron population. Such a change of the momentum space topology is shown to be accurately described by a simple analytic model, thus providing a powerful means of determining the avalanche threshold for a range of model assumptions.

  12. Discrimination capability of avalanche counters detecting different ionizing particles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prete, G.; Viesti, G.; Padua Univ.

    1985-01-01

    The discrimination capability of avalanche counters to detect different ionizing particles has been studied using a 252 Cf source. Pulse height, pulse-height resolution and timing properties have been measured as a function of the reduced applied voltage for parallel-plate and parallel-grid avalanche counters. At the highest applied voltages, space charge effects shift the pulse-height signal of the avalanche counter away from being linearly proportional to the stopping power of the detected particles and cause the pulse-height resolution to deteriorate. To optimize the avalanche counter capability, without loss of time resolution, it appears better to operate the detector at voltages well below the breakdown threshold. Measurements with 32 S ions are also reported. (orig.)

  13. Random walk theory applied to electron avalanche formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Englert, G. W.

    1974-01-01

    Use of microscopic detail in random walk theory describing the initial formations of a large number of avalanches shows that concomitant electron transport coefficients quickly relax to equilibrium values. This enables the use of random walks having step sizes and probabilities based only on local electric field strengths and densities. A self-consistent avalanche solution which accounts for collective long range Coulomb interactions as well as short range elastic and inelastic collisions between electrons and background atoms is demonstrated for helium. Avalanche growth retardation followed by an abrupt growth augmentation as time proceeds is shown to be associated with the formation of regions of charge density extrema near the avalanche axis and within the axial distance covered by the electron swarm.

  14. Non-linear behaviour of large-area avalanche photodiodes

    CERN Document Server

    Fernandes, L M P; Monteiro, C M B; Santos, J M; Morgado, R E

    2002-01-01

    The characterisation of photodiodes used as photosensors requires a determination of the number of electron-hole pairs produced by scintillation light. One method involves comparing signals produced by X-ray absorptions occurring directly in the avalanche photodiode with the light signals. When the light is derived from light-emitting diodes in the 400-600 nm range, significant non-linear behaviour is reported. In the present work, we extend the study of the linear behaviour to large-area avalanche photodiodes, of Advanced Photonix, used as photosensors of the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) scintillation light produced by argon (128 nm) and xenon (173 nm). We observed greater non-linearities in the avalanche photodiodes for the VUV scintillation light than reported previously for visible light, but considerably less than the non-linearities observed in other commercially available avalanche photodiodes.

  15. Noiseless Near-Infrared Photon Counting Avalanche Photodiode Detectors

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This proposal concerns the research and development of a mercury cadmium telluride (HgCdTe) Avalanche Photodiode (APD) array for use as a low-noise science detector...

  16. Transient events in bright debris discs: Collisional avalanches revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thebault, P.; Kral, Q.

    2018-01-01

    Context. A collisional avalanche is set off by the breakup of a large planetesimal, releasing vast amounts of small unbound grains that enter a debris disc located further away from the star, triggering there a collisional chain reaction that could potentially create detectable transient structures. Aims: We investigate this mechanism, using for the first time a fully self-consistent code coupling dynamical and collisional evolutions. We also quantify for the first time the photometric evolution of the system and investigate whether or not avalanches could explain the short-term luminosity variations recently observed in some extremely bright debris discs. Methods: We use the state-of-the-art LIDT-DD code. We consider an avalanche-favoring A6V star, and two set-ups: a "cold disc" case, with a dust release at 10 au and an outer disc extending from 50 to 120 au, and a "warm disc" case with the release at 1 au and a 5-12 au outer disc. We explore, in addition, two key parameters: the density (parameterized by its optical depth τ) of the main outer disc and the amount of dust released by the initial breakup. Results: We find that avalanches could leave detectable structures on resolved images, for both "cold" and "warm" disc cases, in discs with τ of a few 10-3, provided that large dust masses (≳1020-5 × 1022 g) are initially released. The integrated photometric excess due to an avalanche is relatively limited, less than 10% for these released dust masses, peaking in the λ 10-20 μm domain and becoming insignificant beyond 40-50 μm. Contrary to earlier studies, we do not obtain stronger avalanches when increasing τ to higher values. Likewise, we do not observe a significant luminosity deficit, as compared to the pre-avalanche level, after the passage of the avalanche. These two results concur to make avalanches an unlikely explanation for the sharp luminosity drops observed in some extremely bright debris discs. The ideal configuration for observing an

  17. Physical vulnerability of reinforced concrete buildings impacted by snow avalanches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Bertrand

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the assessment of physical vulnerability of civil engineering structures to snow avalanche loadings. In this case, the vulnerability of the element at risk is defined by its damage level expressed on a scale from 0 (no damage to 1 (total destruction. The vulnerability of a building depends on its structure and flow features (geometry, mechanical properties, type of avalanche, topography, etc.. This makes it difficult to obtain vulnerability relations. Most existing vulnerability relations have been built from field observations. This approach suffers from the scarcity of well documented events. Moreover, the back analysis is based on both rough descriptions of the avalanche and the structure. To overcome this problem, numerical simulations of reinforced concrete structures loaded by snow avalanches are carried out. Numerical simulations allow to study, in controlled conditions, the structure behavior under snow avalanche loading. The structure is modeled in 3-D by the finite element method (FEM. The elasto-plasticity framework is used to represent the mechanical behavior of both materials (concrete and steel bars and the transient feature of the avalanche loading is taken into account in the simulation. Considering a reference structure, several simulation campaigns are conducted in order to assess its snow avalanches vulnerability. Thus, a damage index is defined and is based on global and local parameters of the structure. The influence of the geometrical features of the structure, the compressive strength of the concrete, the density of steel inside the composite material and the maximum impact pressure on the damage index are studied and analyzed. These simulations allow establishing the vulnerability as a function of the impact pressure and the structure features. The derived vulnerability functions could be used for risk analysis in a snow avalanche context.

  18. La Carte de Localisation Probable des Avalanches (CPLA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilles BORREL

    1994-12-01

    Full Text Available La Carte de Localisation Probable des Avalanches (CPLA indique l’enveloppe des limites extrêmes connues atteintes par les avalanches, ainsi que les travaux de protection associés. Il s’agit d’un document informatif et non d’une carte de risque. Depuis 1990, les données thématiques sont numérisées.

  19. Avalanches driven by pressure gradients in a magnetized plasma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Compernolle, B.; Morales, G. J.

    2017-11-01

    The results are presented for a basic heat transport experiment involving an off-axis heat source in which avalanche events occur. The configuration consists of a long, hollow, cylindrical region of elevated electron temperature embedded in a colder plasma, and far from the device walls [Van Compernolle et al. Phys. Rev. E 91, 031102(R) (2015)]. The avalanche events are identified as sudden rearrangements of the pressure profile following the growth of fluctuations from ambient noise. The intermittent collapses of the plasma pressure profile are associated with unstable drift-Alfvén waves and exhibit both radial and poloidal dynamics. After each collapse, the plasma enters a quiescent phase in which the pressure profile slowly recovers and steepens until a threshold is exceeded, and the process repeats. The use of reference probes as time markers allows for the visualization of the 2D spatio-temporal evolution of the avalanche events. Avalanches are observed only for a limited combination of heating powers and magnetic fields. At higher heating powers, the system transits from the avalanche regime into a regime dominated by sustained drift-Alfvén wave activity. This manuscript focuses on new results that illustrate the individual contributions to the avalanche process from density and temperature gradients in the presence of zero-order, sheared flows.

  20. OPTIMIZING THROUGH CO-EVOLUTIONARY AVALANCHES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S. BOETTCHER; A. PERCUS

    2000-08-01

    We explore a new general-purpose heuristic for finding high-quality solutions to hard optimization problems. The method, called extremal optimization, is inspired by ''self-organized critically,'' a concept introduced to describe emergent complexity in many physical systems. In contrast to Genetic Algorithms which operate on an entire ''gene-pool'' of possible solutions, extremal optimization successively replaces extremely undesirable elements of a sub-optimal solution with new, random ones. Large fluctuations, called ''avalanches,'' ensue that efficiently explore many local optima. Drawing upon models used to simulate far-from-equilibrium dynamics, extremal optimization complements approximation methods inspired by equilibrium statistical physics, such as simulated annealing. With only one adjustable parameter, its performance has proved competitive with more elaborate methods, especially near phase transitions. Those phase transitions are found in the parameter space of most optimization problems, and have recently been conjectured to be the origin of some of the hardest instances in computational complexity. We will demonstrate how extremal optimization can be implemented for a variety of combinatorial optimization problems. We believe that extremal optimization will be a useful tool in the investigation of phase transitions in combinatorial optimization problems, hence valuable in elucidating the origin of computational complexity.

  1. Avalanches Near the Onset of Jamming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, J. M.; Chakrabarti, Bismayan

    2010-03-01

    As the jamming transition is approached from the liquid-like side, experiments and simulations demonstrate that a random assembly of particles exhibits avalanche-like behaviour in response to a probe particle being dragged through it. To better understand this response, we construct a lattice model with active and inactive particles occupying some fraction of the lattice, with each site being occupied by at most one particle. Only the active particles can hop to empty neighboring sites and can activate k neighboring inactive particles at some rate λk. Also, active particles can become inactive at some rate γ. When lambdak>=2=0 , this model is closely related to the conserved lattice gas model which is thought to belong to the universality class of absorbing phase transitions with a conserved field, i.e. conserved stochastic sandpile models. To mimic the approach towards jamming, an increasingly more crowded environment, we study this model for λk>=1>0 and search for a new universality class as λk=1 approaches zero.

  2. Avalanche breakdown of the quantum hall effects

    CERN Document Server

    Komiyama, S

    1999-01-01

    Heat stability of two-dimensional electron gas (2DEG) systems in the integer quantum hall effect (IQHE) regime is discussed, and a heat instability is suggested to be the intrinsic mechanism behind the breakdown of the IQHE. Phenomenological argument is provided to suggest that the 2DEG system in the IQHE state becomes thermally unstable when the Hall electric field E sub y reaches a threshold value E sub b. Above E sub b , excited nonequilibrium electrons (holes), which are initially present in the conductor as the temperature fluctuation, are accelerated by E sub y and the 2DEG thereby undergoes a transition to a warm dissipative state. The critical field, E sub b , of this abrupt transition is theoretically estimated and shown to be in fare agreement with experimentally reported values. Consideration of the dynamics of electrons suggests that the transition is a process of avalanche electron-hole pair multiplication, in which a small number of non-equilibrium carriers, gains kinetic energy within a Landau ...

  3. Guiding thermomagnetic avalanches with soft magnetic stripes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vlasko-Vlasov, V. K.; Colauto, F.; Benseman, T.; Rosenmann, D.; Kwok, W. -K.

    2017-12-01

    We demonstrate the potential for manipulating the ultrafast dynamics of thermomagnetic flux avalanches (TMA) in superconducting films with soft magnetic stripes deposited on the film. By tuning the in-plane magnetization of the stripes, we induce lines of strong magnetic potentials for Abrikosov vortices, resulting in guided slow motion of vortices along the stripe edges and preferential bursts of TMA along the stripes. Furthermore, we show that transversely polarized stripes can reduce the TMA size by diverting magnetic flux away from the major trunk of the TMA into interstripe gaps. Our data indicate that TMAs are launched from locations with enhanced vortex entry barrier, where flux accumulation followed by accelerated vortex discharge significantly reduces the threshold of the applied field ramping speed required for the creation of TMAs. Finally, vortex-antivortex annihilation at the moving front of an expanding TMA can account for the enhanced TMA activity in the receding branches of the sample's magnetization cycle and the preferred propagation of TMAs into maximum trapped flux regions.

  4. First approximations in avalanche model validations using seismic information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roig Lafon, Pere; Suriñach, Emma; Bartelt, Perry; Pérez-Guillén, Cristina; Tapia, Mar; Sovilla, Betty

    2017-04-01

    Avalanche dynamics modelling is an essential tool for snow hazard management. Scenario based numerical modelling provides quantitative arguments for decision-making. The software tool RAMMS (WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF) is one such tool, often used by government authorities and geotechnical offices. As avalanche models improve, the quality of the numerical results will depend increasingly on user experience on the specification of input (e.g. release and entrainment volumes, secondary releases, snow temperature and quality). New model developments must continue to be validated using real phenomena data, for improving performance and reliability. The avalanches group form University of Barcelona (RISKNAT - UB), has studied the seismic signals generated from avalanches since 1994. Presently, the group manages the seismic installation at SLF's Vallée de la Sionne experimental site (VDLS). At VDLS the recorded seismic signals can be correlated to other avalanche measurement techniques, including both advanced remote sensing methods (radars, videogrammetry) and obstacle based sensors (pressure, capacitance, optical sender-reflector barriers). This comparison between different measurement techniques allows the group to address the question if seismic analysis can be used alone, on more additional avalanche tracks, to gain insight and validate numerical avalanche dynamics models in different terrain conditions. In this study, we aim to add the seismic data as an external record of the phenomena, able to validate RAMMS models. The seismic sensors are considerable easy and cheaper to install than other physical measuring tools, and are able to record data from the phenomena in every atmospheric conditions (e.g. bad weather, low light, freezing make photography, and other kind of sensors not usable). With seismic signals, we record the temporal evolution of the inner and denser parts of the avalanche. We are able to recognize the approximate position

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  7. kspi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kclm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kipl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kpbi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kgdv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. krdg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kbgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kcmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kdls Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. koaj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. krhi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kbpk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kcwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. pawg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kgfl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. pgwt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. khuf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. pabr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kewn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kipt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kpeq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kdug Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. klbt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kcys Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. khio Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kflo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. klaf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kmlu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kact Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. khob Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. ktcs Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kdnl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kmgw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kryy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kgtf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kjax Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. ktvf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kfat Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kink Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kshv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. pajn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kpna Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. ktph Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. ksux Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kcon Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kpnc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kgsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kgpt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kgcn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kart Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. pagk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. korf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kpsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kcre Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. krsw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. papg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kblf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. krdu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kluk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. keed Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kiwd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kttn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kagc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kbmi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kapn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kgon Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. Segregation induced fingering instabilities in granular avalanches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodhouse, Mark; Thornton, Anthony; Johnson, Chris; Kokelaar, Pete; Gray, Nico

    2013-04-01

    It is important to be able to predict the distance to which a hazardous natural granular flows (e.g. snow slab avalanches, debris-flows and pyroclastic flows) might travel, as this information is vital for accurate assessment of the risks posed by such events. In the high solids fraction regions of these flows the large particles commonly segregate to the surface, where they are transported to the margins to form bouldery flow fronts. In many natural flows these bouldery margins experience a much greater frictional force, leading to frontal instabilities. These instabilities create levees that channelize the flow vastly increasing the run-out distance. A similar effect can be observed in dry granular experiments, which use a combination of small round and large rough particles. When this mixture is poured down an inclined plane, particle size segregation causes the large particles to accumulate near the margins. Being rougher, the large particles experience a greater friction force and this configuration (rougher material in front of smoother) can be unstable. The instability causes the uniform flow front to break up into a series of fingers. A recent model for particle size-segregation has been coupled to existing avalanche models through a particle concentration dependent friction law. In this talk numerical solutions of this coupled system are presented and compared to both large scale experiments carried out at the USGS flume and more controlled small scale laboratory experiments. The coupled depth-averaged model captures the accumulation of large particles at the flow front. We show this large particle accumulation at the head of the flow can lead to the break-up of the initially uniform front into a series of fingers. However, we are unable to obtain a fully grid-resolved numerical solution; the width of the fingers decreases as the grid is refined. By considering the linear stability of a steady, fully-developed, bidisperse granular layer it is shown that

  14. Intermittent flow under constant forcing: Acoustic emission from creep avalanches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salje, Ekhard K. H.; Liu, Hanlong; Jin, Linsen; Jiang, Deyi; Xiao, Yang; Jiang, Xiang

    2018-01-01

    While avalanches in field driven ferroic systems (e.g., Barkhausen noise), domain switching of martensitic nanostructures, and the collapse of porous materials are well documented, creep avalanches (avalanches under constant forcing) were never observed. Collapse avalanches generate particularly large acoustic emission (AE) signals and were hence chosen to investigate crackling noise under creep conditions. Piezoelectric SiO2 has a strong piezoelectric response even at the nanoscale so that we chose weakly bound SiO2 spheres in natural sandstone as a representative for the study of avalanches under time-independent, constant force. We found highly non-stationary crackling noise with four activity periods, each with power law distributed AE emission. Only the period before the final collapse shows the mean field behavior (ɛ near 1.39), in agreement with previous dynamic measurements at a constant stress rate. All earlier event periods show collapse with larger exponents (ɛ = 1.65). The waiting time exponents are classic with τ near 2.2 and 1.32. Creep data generate power law mixing with "effective" exponents for the full dataset with combinations of mean field and non-mean field regimes. We find close agreement with the predicted time-dependent fiber bound simulations, including events and waiting time distributions. Båth's law holds under creep conditions.

  15. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-02-07

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  16. Fast transmission avalanche counter for charged particle detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nojbert, V.; Dubbers, F.

    1979-01-01

    A new type of detectors, an avalanche transmission-type counter has been developed to record charged particles. It consists of two very thin tightened films between which high voltage is applied. Structurally the avalanche counter is made in the form of round small polyamide frames on which a FORMAVAR film of 15-30 μgxcm -2 thick is tightened. The latter is then covered with gold (approximately 40 μgxcm -2 ). As a working gas the avalanche counter uses vapours of acetone or n-heptane at a pressure ranging from 2 to 10 mm Hg. The basic circuits of detector-preamplifier connection is given, and the dependence of the detector signal amplitude on the counter anode-cathode voltage is presented. When recording α-particles the proper time resolution of the developed counter constitutes 475 ps

  17. The diversity of flux avalanche patterns in superconducting films

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vestgården, J. I.; Shantsev, D. V.; Galperin, Y. M.; Johansen, T. H.

    2013-05-01

    The variety of morphologies in flux patterns created by thermomagnetic dendritic avalanches in type-II superconducting films is investigated using numerical simulations. The avalanches are triggered by introducing a hot spot at the edge of a strip-shaped sample, which is initially prepared in a partially penetrated Bean critical state by slowly ramping the transversely applied magnetic field. The simulation scheme is based on a model accounting for the nonlinear and nonlocal electrodynamics of superconductors in the transverse geometry. By systematically varying the parameters representing the Joule heating, heat conduction in the film, and heat transfer to the substrate, a wide variety of avalanche patterns are formed, and quantitative characterizations of the areal extension, branch width etc are made. The results show that branching is suppressed by the lateral heat diffusion, while large Joule heating gives many branches, and heat removal into the substrate limits the areal size. The morphology shows significant dependence also on the initial flux penetration depth.

  18. Precise method for determining avalanche breakdown voltage of silicon photomultipliers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirikov-Zorin, I.

    2017-07-01

    A physically motivated method is proposed for determining the avalanche breakdown voltage of silicon photomultipliers (SiPM). The method is based on measuring the dependence of the relative photon detection efficiency (PDErel) on the bias voltage when one type of carriers (electron or hole) is injected into the avalanche multiplication zone of the p-n junction. The injection of electrons or holes from the base region of the SiPM semiconductor structure is performed using short-wave or long-wave light. At a low overvoltage (1-2 V) the detection efficiency is linearly dependent on the bias voltage; therefore, extrapolation to zero PDErel value determines the SiPM avalanche breakdown voltage with an accuracy within a few millivolts.

  19. Experimental method to predict avalanches based on neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Zhdanov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents results of experimental use of currently available statistical methods to classify the avalanche‑dangerous precipitations and snowfalls in the Kishi Almaty river basin. The avalanche service of Kazakhstan uses graphical methods for prediction of avalanches developed by I.V. Kondrashov and E.I. Kolesnikov. The main objective of this work was to develop a modern model that could be used directly at the avalanche stations. Classification of winter precipitations into dangerous snowfalls and non‑dangerous ones was performed by two following ways: the linear discriminant function (canonical analysis and artificial neural networks. Observational data on weather and avalanches in the gorge Kishi Almaty in the gorge Kishi Almaty were used as a training sample. Coefficients for the canonical variables were calculated by the software «Statistica» (Russian version 6.0, and then the necessary formula had been constructed. The accuracy of the above classification was 96%. Simulator by the authors L.N. Yasnitsky and F.М. Cherepanov was used to learn the neural networks. The trained neural network demonstrated 98% accuracy of the classification. Prepared statistical models are recommended to be tested at the snow‑avalanche stations. Results of the tests will be used for estimation of the model quality and its readiness for the operational work. In future, we plan to apply these models for classification of the avalanche danger by the five‑point international scale.

  20. Investigations of single-electron avalanches in a proportional drift tube

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, W.S.; Armitage, J.C.; Chevreau, P.; Heinrich, J.G.; Lu, C.; McDonald, I.; McDonald, K.T.; Miller, B.; Secrest, D.; Weckel, J.

    1990-01-01

    Detailed information on single-electron drift and avalanche behavior has a basic interest in an investigation of gas-chamber performance. Its timing, avalanche distribution, attachment by the working gas mixtures, etc., provide various criteria for choosing the best suitable gas mixture under a specific experimental circumstance. Investigations of single-electron avalanches in a proportional drift tube have been carried out with a pulsed N 2 laser. The study consists of two aspects: timing properties, and fluctuations in the gas avalanche

  1. Neutron irradiation studies of avalanche photodiodes using californium-252

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reucroft, S.; Rusack, R.; Ruuska, D.; Swain, J.

    1997-02-01

    Californium-252 is a convenient and copious source of neutrons of energies around 1 MeV, and provides many advantages over reactors for neutron irradiation studies of detector components. We describe here an experimental setup at Oak Ridge National Laboratory which has been constructed to study the performance of avalanche photodiodes in neutron fluences up to 10 13 neutrons/cm 2, similar to what is expected in parts of the CMS detector at the LHC. An irradiation study of some avalanche photodiodes is discussed, followed by a brief summary of results obtained.

  2. SNOW AVALANCHE ACTIVITY IN PARÂNG SKI AREA REVEALED BY TREE-RINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. MESEȘAN

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Snow Avalanche Activity in Parâng Ski Area Revealed by Tree-Rings. Snow avalanches hold favorable conditions to manifest in Parâng Mountains but only one event is historically known, without destructive impact upon infrastructure or fatalities and this region wasn’t yet the object of avalanche research. The existing ski infrastructure of Parâng resort located in the west of Parâng Mountains is proposed to be extended in the steep slopes of subalpine area. Field evidence pinpoints that these steep slopes were affected by snow avalanches in the past. In this study we analyzed 11 stem discs and 31 increment cores extracted from 22 spruces (Picea abies (L. Karst impacted by avalanches, in order to obtain more information about past avalanches activity. Using the dendrogeomorphological approach we found 13 avalanche events that occurred along Scărița avalanche path, since 1935 until 2012, nine of them produced in the last 20 years. The tree-rings data inferred an intense snow avalanche activity along this avalanche path. This study not only calls for more research in the study area but also proves that snow avalanches could constitute an important restrictive factor for the tourism infrastructure and related activities in the area. It must be taken into consideration by the future extension of tourism infrastructure. Keywords: snow avalanche, Parâng Mountains, dendrogeomorphology, ski area.

  3. On the predictability of ice avalanches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Pralong

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The velocity of unstable large ice masses from hanging glaciers increases as a power-law function of time prior to failure. This characteristic acceleration presents a finite-time singularity at the theoretical time of failure and can be used to forecast the time of glacier collapse. However, the non-linearity of the power-law function makes the prediction difficult. The effects of the non-linearity on the predictability of a failure are analyzed using a non-linear regression method. Predictability strongly depends on the time window when the measurements are performed. Log-periodic oscillations have been observed to be superimposed on the motion of large unstable ice masses. The value of their amplitude, frequency and phase are observed to be spatially homogeneous over the whole unstable ice mass. Inclusion of a respective term in the function describing the acceleration of unstable ice masses greatly increases the accuracy of the prediction.

  4. The Devdorak ice-rock avalanche and consequent debris flow from the slope of Mt. Kazbek (Caucasus, Georgia) in 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chernomorets, Sergey; Savernyuk, Elena; Petrakov, Dmitry; Dokukin, Mikhail; Gotsiridze, George; Gavardashvili, Givi; Drobyshev, Valery; Tutubalina, Olga; Zaporozhchenko, Eduard; Kamenev, Nikolay; Kamenev, Vladimir; Kääb, Andreas; Kargel, Jeffrey; Huggel, Christian

    2016-04-01

    the middle and lower course of the valley below 3000 m a.s.l. was about 2 million cubic metres, while the ice content in the deposits reached 25-30%. It is planned to assess the volume of the trigger mass in the initiation zone later. The flow went along the valley with characteristic superelevations and run-ups, as it moved from one valley side to the other. We identified six superelevaions in fresh deposits, with differences of up to 45 m in flow height on the left and right valley banks. Instrumental measurements of superelevations and subsequent calculations yield the flow velocities of over 200 km/hour. These results lead to a reassessment of similar events which occurred in this valley in 18-19th centuries. Previously the trigger of these events was supposed to be the ice accumulation during surges of Devdorak glacier with subsequent temporary damming of the Amilishka River valley. The analysis of the 2014 event demonstrates that a similar trigger was possible in the past: an ice-rock avalanche onto Devdorak glacier tongue from significantly higher locations. Following the field data analysis, we issued a warning through mass media on 12 August 2014, forecasting a high risk of a new glacial disaster in this site and a new blockage of the Terek River valley and of Military Georgian Road. This forecast came true on 20 August 2014: a glacial debris flow reached the Terek River valley, and partially buried the Dariali hydropower station (under construction), the customs and border control buildings. Three people have been killed. We studied the deposits of this debris flow and morphology of the gully. The deposits entrained by the flow were previously deposited by the ice-rock avalanche of 17 May 2014. The debris flow started after shower rains. The debris flow-gully has a box-like crossection. At the confluence of Amilishka and Chach rivers it reached 30-32 m in width, and eroded the deposits of 17 May 2014 by 7 m. The channel slope at this location was about 7

  5. Avalanche transmission and critical behaviour in load-bearing ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Synchronization, Coupled Systems and Networks Volume 77 Issue 5 November 2011 pp 873-879 ... http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/pram/077/05/0873-0879 ... The avalanche time distributions of the V-lattice, a unique realization of the networks, show power-law behaviour when tested with certain fractions of its trunk ...

  6. Positron camera with high-density avalanche chambers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manfrass, D.; Enghardt, W.; Fromm, W.D.; Wohlfarth, D.; Hennig, K.

    1988-01-01

    The results of an extensive investigation of the properties of high-density avalanche chambers (HIDAC) are presented. This study has been performed in order to optimize the layout of HIDAC detectors, since they are intended to be applied as position sensitive detectors for annihilation radiation in a positron emission tomograph being under construction. (author)

  7. Electron avalanche structure determined by random walk theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Englert, G. W.

    1973-01-01

    A self-consistent avalanche solution which accounts for collective long range Coulomb interactions as well as short range elastic and inelastic collisions between electrons and background atoms is made possible by a random walk technique. Results show that the electric field patterns in the early formation stages of avalanches in helium are close to those obtained from theory based on constant transport coefficients. Regions of maximum and minimum induced electrostatic potential phi are located on the axis of symmetry and within the volume covered by the electron swarm. As formation time continues, however, the region of minimum phi moves to slightly higher radii and the electric field between the extrema becomes somewhat erratic. In the intermediate formation periods the avalanche growth is slightly retarded by the high concentration of ions in the tail which oppose the external electric field. Eventually the formation of ions and electrons in the localized regions of high field strength more than offset this effect causing a very abrupt increase in avalanche growth.

  8. Dimensional reduction, avalanches and disorder in artificial kagome spin ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hugli, Remo V.; Duff, Gerard; Braun, Hans-Benjamin

    2012-02-01

    In collaboration with an experimental team at the Swiss Light Source we have recently demonstrated that emergent monopoles and associated Dirac strings can directly be observed in real space via x-ray circular dichroism in a kagome lattice geometry. Here we build on the fact that the experimental results are in excellent agreement with MC simulations of a lattice of point dipoles with disorder realized in the form of random switching fields. We demonstrate that within a large range of physical parameters such as interdipolar coupling and randomness, magnetization reversal proceeds via a novel 1D avalanche behaviour whose hallmark is an exponential avalanche size distribution. After presenting simple arguments for the origin of such dimensional reduction we demonstrate that such 1D avalanche behavior also occurs in a model where the dipoles are stretched into magnetic charge dumbbells which provides a more realistic model for nanolithographic islands. Finally we demonstrate how a judicious design of the island anisotropy can be used to achieve controlled switching and avalanche propagation which paves the way for spintronic applications

  9. Snow avalanche hazard of the Krkonose National Park, Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Blahůt, Jan; Klimeš, Jan; Balek, Jan; Hájek, P.; Červená, L.; Lysák, J.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 13, č. 2 (2017), s. 86-90 ISSN 1744-5647 R&D Projects: GA MV VG20132015115 Institutional support: RVO:67985891 Keywords : snow avalanches * hazard * inventory * hazard mitigation * Krkonoše Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography OBOR OECD: Physical geography Impact factor: 2.174, year: 2016

  10. heat flow in a finite isolated pulsed avalanche semiconductor diode ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ES Obe

    1981-03-01

    Mar 1, 1981 ... high-power high-efficiency avalanche semiconductor devices. The temperature rise as a function of the heat sink size is computed, and useful practical design curves for a specified operation time presented. ... 2.1 THE PHYSICAL MODEL. Figure 1 shows a basic structure of a diode,-radius R, mounted on.

  11. Imaging of ionizing radiations from electronic avalanches, limited, in gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charpak, G.

    1995-01-01

    This work deals with the imaging of ionizing radiations from electronic avalanches in gases. Some applications realized with the help of physical instruments like : fog chambers, Geiger-Mueller counters, proportional counters, scintillation counters, semiconductor detectors, nuclear emulsions, bubble chambers, drift chambers, wire spark chambers and calorimeters are described and their performances compared. (O.L.). 5 refs., 10 figs

  12. Large Format Geiger Mode Avalanche Photodiode Arrays and Readout Circuits

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-01

    efficiency. The pixels in early CMOS designs effectively contained a “stop watch ” – circuitry operating at fast clock frequencies required to...Ghioni, A. Lacaita, C. Samori, and F. Zappa, "Avalanche photodiodes and quenching circuits for single-photon detection," Appl . Opt. 35, 1956-1976

  13. Laboratory study of avalanches in a magnetized plasma

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Compernolle, Bart

    2015-11-01

    Results of a basic heat transport experiment [] involving an off-axis heat source are presented. Experiments are performed in the Large Plasma Device (LAPD) at UCLA. A ring-shaped electron beam source injects low energy electrons (below ionization energy) along a strong magnetic field into a preexisting, large and cold plasma. The injected electrons are thermalized by Coulomb collisions within a short distance and provide an off-axis heat source that results in a long, hollow, cylindrical region of elevated electron temperature embedded in a colder plasma, and far from the machine walls. It is demonstrated that this heating configuration provides an ideal environment to study avalanche phenomena under controlled conditions. The avalanches are identified as sudden rearrangements of the pressure profile following the growth of fluctuations from ambient noise. The intermittent collapses of the plasma pressure profile are associated with unstable drift-Alfvén waves and exhibit both radial and azimuthal dynamics. After each collapse the plasma enters a quiescent phase in which the pressure profile slowly recovers and steepens until a threshold is exceeded, and the process repeats. The use of reference probes as time markers allows for the visualization of the 2D spatio-temporal evolution of the avalanche events. Avalanches are only observed for a limited combination of heating powers and magnetic fields. At higher heating powers the system transitions from the avalanche regime into a regime dominated by sustained drift-Alfvén wave activity. The pressure profile then transitions to a near steady-state in which anomalous transport balances the external pressure source. Performed at the Basic Plasma Science Facility at UCLA, supported jointly by DOE and NSF.

  14. Dealing with the white death: avalanche risk management for traffic routes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rheinberger, Christoph M; Bründl, Michael; Rhyner, Jakob

    2009-01-01

    This article discusses mitigation strategies to protect traffic routes from snow avalanches. Up to now, mitigation of snow avalanches on many roads and railways in the Alps has relied on avalanche sheds, which require large initial investments resulting in high opportunity costs. Therefore, avalanche risk managers have increasingly adopted organizational mitigation measures such as warning systems and closure policies instead. The effectiveness of these measures is, however, greatly dependent on human decisions. In this article, we present a method for optimizing avalanche mitigation for traffic routes in terms of both their risk reduction impact and their net benefit to society. First, we introduce a generic framework for assessing avalanche risk and for quantifying the impact of mitigation. This allows for sound cost-benefit comparisons between alternative mitigation strategies. Second, we illustrate the framework with a case study from Switzerland. Our findings suggest that site-specific characteristics of avalanche paths, as well as the economic importance of a traffic route, are decisive for the choice of optimal mitigation strategies. On routes endangered by few avalanche paths with frequent avalanche occurrences, structural measures are most efficient, whereas reliance on organizational mitigation is often the most appropriate strategy on routes endangered by many paths with infrequent or fuzzy avalanche risk. Finally, keeping a traffic route open may be very important for tourism or the transport industry. Hence, local economic value may promote the use of a hybrid strategy that combines organizational and structural measures to optimize the resource allocation of avalanche risk mitigation.

  15. Application of statistical and dynamics models for snow avalanche hazard assessment in mountain regions of Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turchaninova, A.

    2012-04-01

    The estimation of extreme avalanche runout distances, flow velocities, impact pressures and volumes is an essential part of snow engineering in mountain regions of Russia. It implies the avalanche hazard assessment and mapping. Russian guidelines accept the application of different avalanche models as well as approaches for the estimation of model input parameters. Consequently different teams of engineers in Russia apply various dynamics and statistical models for engineering practice. However it gives more freedom to avalanche practitioners and experts but causes lots of uncertainties in case of serious limitations of avalanche models. We discuss these problems by presenting the application results of different well known and widely used statistical (developed in Russia) and avalanche dynamics models for several avalanche test sites in the Khibini Mountains (The Kola Peninsula) and the Caucasus. The most accurate and well-documented data from different powder and wet, big rare and small frequent snow avalanche events is collected from 1960th till today in the Khibini Mountains by the Avalanche Safety Center of "Apatit". This data was digitized and is available for use and analysis. Then the detailed digital avalanche database (GIS) was created for the first time. It contains contours of observed avalanches (ESRI shapes, more than 50 years of observations), DEMs, remote sensing data, description of snow pits, photos etc. Thus, the Russian avalanche data is a unique source of information for understanding of an avalanche flow rheology and the future development and calibration of the avalanche dynamics models. GIS database was used to analyze model input parameters and to calibrate and verify avalanche models. Regarding extreme dynamic parameters the outputs using different models can differ significantly. This is unacceptable for the engineering purposes in case of the absence of the well-defined guidelines in Russia. The frequency curves for the runout distance

  16. Operational early warning of shallow landslides in Norway: Evaluation of landslide forecasts and associated challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahl, Mads-Peter; Colleuille, Hervé; Boje, Søren; Sund, Monica; Krøgli, Ingeborg; Devoli, Graziella

    2015-04-01

    The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) runs a national early warning system (EWS) for shallow landslides in Norway. Slope failures included in the EWS are debris slides, debris flows, debris avalanches and slush flows. The EWS has been operational on national scale since 2013 and consists of (a) quantitative landslide thresholds and daily hydro-meteorological prognosis; (b) daily qualitative expert evaluation of prognosis / additional data in decision to determine warning levels; (c) publication of warning levels through various custom build internet platforms. The effectiveness of an EWS depends on both the quality of forecasts being issued, and the communication of forecasts to the public. In this analysis a preliminary evaluation of landslide forecasts from the Norwegian EWS within the period 2012-2014 is presented. Criteria for categorizing forecasts as correct, missed events or false alarms are discussed and concrete examples of forecasts falling into the latter two categories are presented. The evaluation show a rate of correct forecasts exceeding 90%. However correct forecast categorization is sometimes difficult, particularly due to poorly documented landslide events. Several challenges has to be met in the process of further lowering rates of missed events of false alarms in the EWS. Among others these include better implementation of susceptibility maps in landslide forecasting, more detailed regionalization of hydro-meteorological landslide thresholds, improved prognosis on precipitation, snowmelt and soil water content as well as the build-up of more experience among the people performing landslide forecasting.

  17. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puechl, K.H.

    1975-01-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

  18. Improving Software Reliability Forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burtsy, Bernard; Albeanu, Grigore; Boros, Dragos N.; Popentiu, Florin; Nicola, V.F.

    1996-01-01

    This work investigates some methods for software reliability forecasting. A supermodel is presented as a suited tool for prediction of reliability in software project development. Also, times series forecasting for cumulative interfailure time is proposed and illustrated.

  19. Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2014-01-01

    The Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012) attracted hundreds of participants worldwide, who contributed many novel ideas to the energy forecasting field. This paper introduces both tracks of GEFCom2012, hierarchical load forecasting and wind power forecasting, with details...

  20. Magnetic avalanches in manganese-acetate, "magnetic deflagration"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Yoko

    Mn12-acetate, first synthesized in 1980 by Lis, is one example of a class of many molecules called single molecule magnets (SMMs) or molecular nanomagnets. These molecules have several atomic spins strongly coupled together within each molecule. They exhibit interesting quantum mechanical phenomena at low temperatures such as quantum tunneling of magnetization, which was first found with Mn12-acetate in 1996 by Friedman, et al. , and Berry phase oscillations which were measured in Fe8 (another SMM) in 1999 by Wernsdorfer, et al. In addition to possible application as memory storage and qubits for quantum computers, these systems provide the means for studies of mesoscopic physics as well as the interactions of the molecules with their environment, such as phonon, photon, nuclear spin, intermolecular dipole, and exchange interactions. Mn12-acetate has twelve Mn ions magnetically coupled in the center of the molecule yielding a giant spin of S = 10 at low temperature. It also has a large uniaxial anisotropy of 65 K. Below 3 K, magnetization curves show strong hysteresis due to the anisotropy barrier. At thesis temperatures, the spin relaxes through the barrier by quantum tunneling of magnetization, which produces regularly-spaced multiple resonant steps in the hysteresis curve. Magnetic avalanches, first detected by Paulsen et al., also occur for some samples only at low temperature, leading to a very fast single-step reversal of the full magnetization, which clearly differs from relaxation by tunneling. In this thesis, I present the results of detailed experimental studies of two aspects of magnetic avalanche phenomenon: "conditions for the triggering of avalanches" and "propagation of the avalanche front". In the first study, we find the magnetic fields at which avalanches occur are stochastically distributed in a particular range of fields. For the second study, we conducted local time-resolved measurements. The results indicate the magnetization avalanches spread

  1. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    , the difference between actual and forecasted traffic is more than +-20%; for 25% of road projects, the difference is larger than +-40%. Forecasts for roads are more accurate and more balanced than for rail, with no significant difference between the frequency of inflated versus deflated forecasts. But for both...

  2. Managing Sales Forecasters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.P. de Bruijn (Bert); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractA Forecast Support System (FSS), which generates sales forecasts, is a sophisticated business analytical tool that can help to improve targeted business decisions. Many companies use such a tool, although at the same time they may allow managers to quote their own forecasts. These sales

  3. A New Method for the Estimation of Avalanche Distance Exceeded Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbolini, Massimiliano; Cappabianca, Federica; Savi, Fabrizio

    2003-11-01

    A crucial point in any methodology for avalanche hazard assessment is the evaluation of avalanche distance exceeded probability, i.e., the annual probability that any assigned location along a given path is reached or exceeded by an avalanche. Typically this problem is faced by estimating the snow volume in the starting zone that is likely to accumulate an average every T years by statistical analysis of snowfall record, and then using this volume as input to an appropriately calibrated avalanche dynamics model to determine the runout distances for this design event. This methodology identifies the areas that can be affected by an avalanche for the considered value of the return period (i.e. the average interval of time for a certain event to repeat itself), T. However, it does not allow us to evaluate the actual avalanche encounter probability for any given point in the runout zone. In the present work this probability is computed by numerical integration of the expression P(x) = ∫0∞ P*(V)f(V) dV, where f is the probability density function (PDF) of the avalanche release volume V, and P* is the probability of the point x being reached or passed by an avalanche if the release volume is V; this latter probability is calculated by avalanche dynamics simulations. The procedure is implemented using a one-dimensional hydraulic-continuum avalanche dynamic model, calibrated on data from different Italian Alpine ranges, and is applied to a real world hazard mapping problem.

  4. Erosion dynamics of powder snow avalanches - model of frontal entrainment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louge, Michel; Sovilla, Betty

    2013-04-01

    We analyze entrainment at the head of powder snow avalanches (PSA) behaving as an eruption current. Instead of invoking an erosion model or other fitted parameters, the analysis assumes that erosion is sustained by a massive blow-out arising as the snow cover is fluidized by the very pore pressure gradients that the avalanche induces within the snow pack. The stability of a mass balance involving snow cover and flow in the PSA's head region then sets frontal speed, height, mixed-mean density, snowpack fluidization depth, frontal impact pressure and static pressure. We show that acceleration of the front is insensitive to local slope, but effectively depends on the rate of change in cloud width. We compare predictions with data collected at the Vallee de la Sionne.

  5. Stability of the discretization of the electron avalanche phenomenon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Villa, Andrea, E-mail: andrea.villa@rse-web.it [Ricerca Sul Sistema Energetico (RSE), Via Rubattino 50, 20134, Milano (Italy); Barbieri, Luca, E-mail: luca.barbieri@rse-web.it [Ricerca Sul Sistema Energetico (RSE), Via Rubattino 50, 20134, Milano (Italy); Gondola, Marco, E-mail: marco.gondola@rse-web.it [Ricerca Sul Sistema Energetico (RSE), Via Rubattino 50, 20134, Milano (Italy); Leon-Garzon, Andres R., E-mail: andresricardo.leon@polimi.it [CMIC Department “Giulio Natta”, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133, Milano (Italy); Malgesini, Roberto, E-mail: roberto.malgesini@rse-web.it [Ricerca Sul Sistema Energetico (RSE), Via Rubattino 50, 20134, Milano (Italy)

    2015-09-01

    The numerical simulation of the discharge inception is an active field of applied physics with many industrial applications. In this work we focus on the drift-reaction equation that describes the electron avalanche. This phenomenon is one of the basic building blocks of the streamer model. The main difficulty of the electron avalanche equation lies in the fact that the reaction term is positive when a high electric field is applied. It leads to exponentially growing solutions and this has a major impact on the behavior of numerical schemes. We analyze the stability of a reference finite volume scheme applied to this latter problem. The stability of the method may impose a strict mesh spacing, therefore a proper stabilized scheme, which is stable whatever spacing is used, has been developed. The convergence of the scheme is treated as well as some numerical experiments.

  6. Plasma simulation of electron avalanche in a linear thyratron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kushner, M.J.

    1985-01-01

    Thyratrons typically operate at sufficiently small PD (pressure x electrode separation) that holdoff is obtained by operating on the near side of the Paschen curve, and by shielding the slot in the control grid so there is no straight line path for electrons to reach the anode from the cathode. Electron avalanche is initiated by pulsing the control grid to a high voltage. Upon collapse of voltage in the cathode-control grid space, the discharge is sustained by penetration of potential through the control grid slot into the cathode-control grid region. To better understand the electron avalanche process in multi-grid and slotted structures such as thyratrons, a plasma simulation code has been constructed. This effort is in support of a companion program in which a linear thyratron is being electrically and spectroscopically characterized

  7. Anticrack nucleation as triggering mechanism for snow slab avalanches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heierli, J; Gumbsch, P; Zaiser, M

    2008-07-11

    Snow slab avalanches are believed to begin by the gravity-driven shear failure of weak layers in stratified snow. The critical crack length for shear crack propagation along such layers should increase without bound as the slope decreases. However, recent experiments show that the critical length of artificially introduced cracks remains constant or, if anything, slightly decreases with decreasing slope. This surprising observation can be understood in terms of volumetric collapse of the weak layer during failure, resulting in the formation and propagation of mixed-mode anticracks, which are driven simultaneously by slope-parallel and slope-normal components of gravity. Such fractures may propagate even if crack-face friction impedes downhill sliding of the snowpack, indicating a scenario in which two separate conditions have to be met for slab avalanche release.

  8. Kinetic modelling of runaway electron avalanches in tokamak plasmas.

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Nilsson, E.; Decker, J.; Peysson, Y.; Granetz, R.S.; Saint-Laurent, F.; Vlainic, Milos

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 57, č. 9 (2015), č. článku 095006. ISSN 0741-3335 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 633053 - EUROfusion Institutional support: RVO:61389021 Keywords : plasma physics * runaway electrons * knock-on collisions * tokamak * Fokker-Planck * runaway avalanches Subject RIV: BL - Plasma and Gas Discharge Physics OBOR OECD: Fluids and plasma physics (including surface physics) Impact factor: 2.404, year: 2015

  9. A microstrip gas avalanche chamber with two-dimensional readout

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angelini, F.; Bellazzini, R.; Brez, A.; Massai, M.M.; Spandre, G.; Torquati, M.R.

    1989-01-01

    A microstrip gas avalanche chamber with a 200 μm anode pitch has been built and successfully tested in our laboratory. A gas gain of 10 4 and an energy resolution of 18% (FWHM) at 6 keV have been measured using a gas mixture of argon-CO 2 at atmospheric pressure. A preliminary measurement of the positional sensitivity indicates that a spatial resolution of 50 μm can be obtained. (orig.)

  10. Avalanche fluctuations within the multigap resistive plate chamber

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cerron Zeballos, E.; Crotty, I.; Lamas Valverde, J.; Veenhof, R.J.; Williams, M.C.S.; Zichichi, A.

    1996-01-01

    The multigap resistive plate chamber (MRPC) was originally designed to have improved time resolution (compared to the wide gap RPC), but also to keep the good high rate behaviour and ease of construction associated with the wide gap RPC. However in addition we observed a very long efficiency plateau, even at high rates. Here we consider fluctuations in avalanche growth, and show that the inherent ''averaging'' of these fluctuations can account for the enhanced performance of the multigap RPC. (orig.)

  11. Particle-based Powder-snow Avalanche Simulation Using GPU

    OpenAIRE

    Yndestad, Leif Kåre Hornnes

    2011-01-01

    The main focus of this thesis was the simulation of a powder-snow avalanche flow. The simulation were implemented using the particle-based simulation solution SPH, from a mathematical model describing powder-snow flow dynamics. The simulation was accelerated by applying the computational power of the GPU, in order to provide a faster simulation time than would have been achieved on the CPU.

  12. Tuning magnetic avalanches in the molecular magnet Mn12 -acetate

    Science.gov (United States)

    McHugh, S.; Wen, Bo; Ma, Xiang; Sarachik, M. P.; Myasoedov, Y.; Zeldov, E.; Bagai, R.; Christou, G.

    2009-05-01

    Using micron-sized Hall sensor arrays to obtain time-resolved measurements of the local magnetization, we report a systematic study in the molecular magnet Mn12 acetate of magnetic avalanches controllably triggered in different fixed external magnetic fields and for different values of the initial magnetization. The speeds of propagation of the spin-reversal fronts are in good overall agreement with the theory of magnetic deflagration of Garanin and Chudnovsky [Phys. Rev. B 76, 054410 (2007)].

  13. Propagation of avalanches in Mn12-acetate: magnetic deflagration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Yoko; Sarachik, M P; Chudnovsky, E M; McHugh, S; Gonzalez-Rubio, R; Avraham, Nurit; Myasoedov, Y; Zeldov, E; Shtrikman, H; Chakov, N E; Christou, G

    2005-09-30

    Local time-resolved measurements of fast reversal of the magnetization of single crystals of Mn12-acetate indicate that the magnetization avalanche spreads as a narrow interface that propagates through the crystal at a constant velocity that is roughly 2 orders of magnitude smaller than the speed of sound. We argue that this phenomenon is closely analogous to the propagation of a flame front (deflagration) through a flammable chemical substance.

  14. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

  15. Electricity demand forecasting techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnanalingam, K.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

  16. Avalanches in the Bean critical-state model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barford, W.

    1997-07-01

    A macroscopic equation of motion for the flux density in dirty type-II superconductors is introduced. The flux density is subject to various types of spatially varying pinning force. When there is no stick-slip dynamics, i.e., when the static pinning force equals the dynamic pinning force, it is shown that in both one and two dimensions an increase in the surface magnetic field leads to an overall height change and hence to a change in magnetization equal to the change in the surface magnetic field. More interesting behavior occurs on introducing stick-slip dynamics, i.e., when the static pinning force exceeds the dynamic pinning force. In this limit a distribution of avalanche sizes over four orders of magnitude is found for a 100×100 lattice. Apart from the anomalous behavior at large sizes, this is shown to fit a distribution of the form P(s)~s-ν exp(-s/α), where s is the avalanche size. The anomalous behavior for large sizes corresponds to avalanches which involve most of the lattice and, hence, cause the flux to ``slide over the edge,'' as detected by a change in the edge magnetization.

  17. Avalanches and power-law behaviour in lung inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suki, Béla; Barabási, Albert-László; Hantos, Zoltán; Peták, Ferenc; Stanley, H. Eugene

    1994-04-01

    WHEN lungs are emptied during exhalation, peripheral airways close up1. For people with lung disease, they may not reopen for a significant portion of inhalation, impairing gas exchange2,3. A knowledge of the mechanisms that govern reinflation of collapsed regions of lungs is therefore central to the development of ventilation strategies for combating respiratory problems. Here we report measurements of the terminal airway resistance, Rt , during the opening of isolated dog lungs. When inflated by a constant flow, Rt decreases in discrete jumps. We find that the probability distribution of the sizes of the jumps and of the time intervals between them exhibit power-law behaviour over two decades. We develop a model of the inflation process in which 'avalanches' of airway openings are seen-with power-law distributions of both the size of avalanches and the time intervals between them-which agree quantitatively with those seen experimentally, and are reminiscent of the power-law behaviour observed for self-organized critical systems4. Thus power-law distributions, arising from avalanches associated with threshold phenomena propagating down a branching tree structure, appear to govern the recruitment of terminal airspaces.

  18. First Townsend coefficient of organic vapour in avalanche counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sernicki, J.

    1990-01-01

    A new concept is presented in the paper for implementing the proven method of determining the first Townsend coefficient (α) of gases using an avalanche counter. The A and B gas constants, interrelated by the expression α/p=A exp[-B/(K/p)], are analyzed. Parallel-plate avalanche counters (PPAC) with an electrode spacing d from 0.1 to 0.4 cm have been employed for the investigation, arranged to register low-energy alpha particles at n-heptane vapour pressures of p≥5 Torr. An in-depth discussion is given, covering the veracity and the behaviour vs K/p, of the n-heptane A and B constants determined at reduced electric-field intensity values ranging from 173.5 to 940 V/cm Torr; the constants have been found to depend upon d. The results of the investigation are compared to available data of the α coefficient of organic vapours used in avalanche counters. The PPAC method of determining α reveals some imperfections at very low values of the pd product. (orig.)

  19. Automated Characterization of Single-Photon Avalanche Photodiode

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aina Mardhiyah M. Ghazali

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We report an automated characterization of a single-photon detector based on commercial silicon avalanche photodiode (PerkinElmer C30902SH. The photodiode is characterized by I-V curves at different illumination levels (darkness, 10 pW and 10 µW, dark count rate and photon detection efficiency at different bias voltages. The automated characterization routine is implemented in C++ running on a Linux computer. ABSTRAK: Kami melaporkan pencirian pengesan foton tunggal secara automatik berdasarkan kepada diod foto runtuhan silikon (silicon avalanche photodiode (PerkinElmer C30902SH komersial. Pencirian  diod foto adalah berdasarkan kepada plot arus-voltan (I-V pada tahap pencahayaan yang berbeza (kelam - tanpa cahaya, 10pW, dan 10µW, kadar bacaan latar belakang, kecekapan pengesanan foton pada voltan picuan yang berbeza. Pengaturcaraan C++ digunakan di dalam rutin pencirian automatik melalui komputer dengan sistem pengendalian LINUX.KEYWORDS: avalanche photodiode (APD; single photon detector; photon counting; experiment automation

  20. Noise Fluctuations and Avalanche Statistics of Skyrmions with Quenched Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, Sebastian; Olson Reichhardt, Cynthia; Reichhardt, Charles; Saxena, Avadh

    Magnetic skyrmions are nanoscopic magnetic textures that enjoy topologically-protected stability and exhibit particle-like behavior. Their novel transport properties have generated extensive basic research and show great potential for using skyrmions as information carriers in future high-density magnetic storage and logic devices. At the particle level, both magnetic skyrmions and superconducting vortices - another kind of topological excitations that also behave as particles - admit a common theoretical description. While in real materials, superconducting vortex dynamics is dissipation-dominated, the so-called Magnus force dominates the dynamics of magnetic skyrmions. Using a particle-based model, we simulate two different systems in the presence of quenched disorder: velocity noise fluctuations of current-driven skyrmions and avalanche statistics of flux-driven skyrmions. We obtain the power spectral density, dynamical phase diagram, as well as the avalanche critical exponents as a function of the Magnus force strength. Our results show that both the noise and avalanche properties of skyrmions depart significantly from the known case of superconducting vortices.

  1. Towards an understanding of flows in avalanche transport phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Suying; Ramadan, Nikolas; van Compernolle, Bart; Poulos, Matt J.; Morales, George J.

    2017-10-01

    Recent heat transport experiments conducted in the Large Plasma Device (LAPD) at UCLA, studying avalanche phenomena at steep cross-magnetic field pressure gradients, suggest that flows play a critical role in the evolution of transport phenomena, motivating further characterization. A ring shaped electron beam source injects sub-ionization energy electrons along the strong background magnetic field within a larger quiescent plasma, creating a hollow, high pressure filament. Two distinct regimes are observed as the density decays; the first characterized by multiple small avalanches producing sudden relaxations of the pressure profile which then recovers under continued heating, and the second signaled by a permanent collapse of the density profile after a global avalanche event, then dominated by drift-Alfven waves. The source is modified from previous experiments to gain active control of the flows by controlling the bias between the emitting ring and surrounding carbon masks. The results of flow measurements obtained using a Mach probe and Langmuir/emissive probe are here presented and compared. An analytical model for the behavior of the electron beam source is also in development. Sponsored by NSF Grant 1619505 and by DOE/NSF at BaPSF.

  2. The transitional behaviour of avalanches in cohesive granular materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintanilla, M. A. S.; Valverde, J. M.; Castellanos, A.

    2006-07-01

    We present a statistical analysis of avalanches of granular materials that partially fill a slowly rotated horizontal drum. For large sized noncohesive grains the classical coherent oscillation is reproduced, consisting of a quasi-periodic succession of regularly sized avalanches. As the powder cohesiveness is increased by decreasing the particle size, we observe a gradual crossover to a complex dynamics that resembles the transitional behaviour observed in fusion plasmas. For particle size below ~50 µm, avalanches lose a characteristic size, retain a short term memory and turn gradually decorrelated in the long term as described by a Markov process. In contrast, large grains made cohesive by coating them with adhesive microparticles display a distinct phenomenology, characterized by a quasi-regular succession of well defined small precursors and large relaxation events. The transition from a one-peaked distribution (noncohesive large beads) to a flattened distribution (fine cohesive beads) passing through the two-peaked distribution of cohesive large beads had already been predicted using a coupled-map lattice model, as the relaxation mechanism of grain reorganization becomes dominant to the detriment of inertia.

  3. Self-organization without conservation: are neuronal avalanches generically critical?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonachela, Juan A.; de Franciscis, Sebastiano; Torres, Joaquín J.; Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2010-02-01

    Recent experiments on cortical neural networks have revealed the existence of well-defined avalanches of electrical activity. Such avalanches have been claimed to be generically scale invariant—i.e. power law distributed—with many exciting implications in neuroscience. Recently, a self-organized model has been proposed by Levina, Herrmann and Geisel to explain this empirical finding. Given that (i) neural dynamics is dissipative and (ii) there is a loading mechanism progressively 'charging' the background synaptic strength, this model/dynamics is very similar in spirit to forest-fire and earthquake models, archetypical examples of non-conserving self-organization, which have recently been shown to lack true criticality. Here we show that cortical neural networks obeying (i) and (ii) are not generically critical; unless parameters are fine-tuned, their dynamics is either subcritical or supercritical, even if the pseudo-critical region is relatively broad. This conclusion seems to be in agreement with the most recent experimental observations. The main implication of our work is that, if future experimental research on cortical networks were to support the observation that truly critical avalanches are the norm and not the exception, then one should look for more elaborate (adaptive/evolutionary) explanations, beyond simple self-organization, to account for this.

  4. Particle-size segregation in dense granular avalanches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, John Mark Nicholas Timm; Gajjar, Parmesh; Kokelaar, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Particles of differing sizes are notoriously prone to segregate, which is a chronic problem in the manufacture of a wide variety of products that are used by billions of people worldwide every day. Segregation is the single most important factor in product non-uniformity, which can lead to significant handling problems as well as complete batches being discarded at huge financial loss. It is generally regarded that the most important mechanism for segregation is the combination of kinetic sieving and squeeze expulsion in shallow granular avalanches. These free-surface flows are more common than one might expect, often forming part of more complicated flows in drums, heaps and silos, where there is mass exchange with underlying regions of static or slowly moving grains. The combination of segregation and solid-fluid granular phase transitions creates incredibly complicated and beautiful patterns in the resulting deposits, but a full understanding of such effects lies beyond our capabilities at present. This paper reviews recent advances in our ability to model the basic segregation processes in a single avalanche (without mass exchange) and the subtle feedback effects that they can have on the bulk flow. This is particularly important for geophysical applications, where segregation can spontaneously self-channelize and lubricate the flow, significantly enhancing the run-out of debris-flows, pyroclastic flows, rock-falls and snow-slab avalanches.

  5. Rock-avalanche dynamics revealed by large-scale field mapping and seismic signals at a highly mobile avalanche in the West Salt Creek valley, western Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coe, Jeffrey A.; Baum, Rex L.; Allstadt, Kate E.; Kochevar, Bernard; Schmitt, Robert G.; Morgan, Matthew L.; White, Jonathan L.; Stratton, Benjamin T.; Hayashi, Timothy A.; Kean, Jason W.

    2016-01-01

    On 25 May 2014, a rain-on-snow–induced rock avalanche occurred in the West Salt Creek valley on the northern flank of Grand Mesa in western Colorado (United States). The avalanche mobilized from a preexisting rock slide in the Green River Formation and traveled 4.6 km down the confined valley, killing three people. The avalanche was rare for the contiguous United States because of its large size (54.5 Mm3) and high mobility (height/length = 0.14). To understand the avalanche failure sequence, mechanisms, and mobility, we conducted a forensic analysis using large-scale (1:1000) structural mapping and seismic data. We used high-resolution, unmanned aircraft system imagery as a base for field mapping, and analyzed seismic data from 22 broadband stations (distances central, hummock-rich core continued to move slowly. Since 25 May 2014, numerous shallow landslides, rock slides, and rock falls have created new structures and modified avalanche topography. Mobility of the main avalanche and central core was likely enhanced by valley floor material that liquefied from undrained loading by the overriding avalanche. Although the base was likely at least partially liquefied, our mapping indicates that the overriding avalanche internally deformed predominantly by sliding along discrete shear surfaces in material that was nearly dry and had substantial frictional strength. These results indicate that the West Salt Creek avalanche, and probably other long-traveled avalanches, could be modeled as two layers: a thin, liquefied basal layer, and a thicker and stronger overriding layer.

  6. The Tancitaro Debris Avalanche: Characterization, propagation and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Stefano; Monroy, Victor Hugo Garduño; Gigli, Giovanni; Falorni, Giacomo; Rocha, Eleazar Arreygue; Casagli, Nicola

    2010-06-01

    The Tancitaro volcano (3860 m) is an andesitic-dacitic stratovolcano located in the western portion of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt within the state of Michoacán (Mexico). The tectonic activity of this area has likely contributed to a large sector collapse of the volcano. The first findings of a multidisciplinary investigation into this debris avalanche are presented here. Geomorphological analyses, based on the interpretation of orthophotos, satellite imagery and on GIS elaborations, had the objective of determining the main morphometric features of the landslide. The collapse structure is an east-facing horseshoe-shaped crater (4 km wide and 5.3 km long), while the deposit forms a large fan that is 66 km long, covers an area of approximately 1155 km 2 and has an estimated volume of 18 km 3. Event volume was established by reconstructing the paleo-edifice in a GIS and taking into account volumetric expansion. Cross sections measured in the field were also used for this purpose. Field investigations also highlighted the presence of two texturally distinct units, which are referred to as the "block facies" and the "matrix facies", respectively. The first is responsible for the typical hummock morphologies found in the proximal area. A transitional zone contains a "mixed block and matrix facies" while in the distal portion blocks and megablocks, some of which have a jigsaw puzzle texture, gradually decrease in size until they disappear entirely. A number of matrix samples were collected to conduct direct shear tests, granulometric analyses and classification of the materials. The data and analyses described above were used to discuss the mechanism controlling the long runout of the avalanche. Based on the comparison between the Tancitaro debris avalanche and similar events we propose that mechanical fluidization was the mechanism responsible for the remarkable mobility of the landslide. The predisposing factors leading to the collapse were also considered. Field

  7. Statistical evaluation of waveform collapse reveals scale-free properties of neuronal avalanches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleena eShaukat

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Neural avalanches are a prominent form of brain activity characterized by network-wide bursts whose statistics follow a power-law distribution with a slope near 3/2. Recent work suggests that avalanches of different durations can be rescaled and thus collapsed together. This collapse mirrors work in statistical physics where it is proposed to form a signature of systems evolving in a critical state. However, no rigorous statistical test has been proposed to examine the degree to which neuronal avalanches collapse together. Here, we describe a statistical test based on functional data analysis, where raw avalanches are first smoothed with a Fourier basis, then rescaled using a time-warping function. Finally, an F ratio test combined with a bootstrap permutation is employed to determine if avalanches collapse together in a statistically reliable fashion. To illustrate this approach, we recorded avalanches from cortical cultures on multielectrode arrays as in previous work. Analyses show that avalanches of various durations can be collapsed together in a statistically robust fashion. However, a principal components analysis revealed that the offset of avalanches resulted in marked variance in the time-warping function, thus arguing for limitations to the strict fractal nature of avalanche dynamics. We compared these results with those obtained from cultures treated with an AMPA/NMDA receptor antagonist (APV/DNQX, which yield a power-law of avalanche durations with a slope greater than 3/2. When collapsed together, these avalanches showed marked misalignments both at onset and offset time-points. In sum, the proposed statistical evaluation suggests the presence of scale-free avalanche waveforms and constitutes an avenue for examining critical dynamics in neuronal systems.

  8. Information processing occurs via critical avalanches in a model of the primary visual cortex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bortolotto, G. S.; Girardi-Schappo, M.; Gonsalves, J. J.; Pinto, L. T.; Tragtenberg, M. H. R.

    2016-01-01

    We study a new biologically motivated model for the Macaque monkey primary visual cortex which presents power-law avalanches after a visual stimulus. The signal propagates through all the layers of the model via avalanches that depend on network structure and synaptic parameter. We identify four different avalanche profiles as a function of the excitatory postsynaptic potential. The avalanches follow a size-duration scaling relation and present critical exponents that match experiments. The structure of the network gives rise to a regime of two characteristic spatial scales, one of which vanishes in the thermodynamic limit.

  9. Effects of ground freezing and snow avalanche deposits on debris flows in alpine environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Bardou

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Debris flows consist of a mixture of water and sediments of various sizes. Apart from few exceptions, the water is usually contributed directly from precipitation. In a high mountain environment like the Alps, it appears necessary to consider infiltration of water into the ground during rainfall events, the runoff characteristics and the potential supply of sediment as a function of a multitude of climatic and hydrogeological factors. This paper outlines several new processes - either linked to ice formation in the ground before an event, or to the presence of snow avalanche deposits - that change the probability of observing an event. These processes were identified during field observations connected with extreme weather events that occurred recently in the Valais Alps (south-western Switzerland: they can be seen as factors either amplifying or reducing the potential of slope instability caused by the precipitation event. An intense freezing of the ground during the week preceding the exceptional rainfall event in mid-October 2000 amplified the probability of triggering debris flows between roughly 1800 and 2300m asl. Both growth of ice needles and superficial ground freezing destroyed soil aggregates (increasing the availability of sediments and/or, a deeper ground freezing resulted in decreased infiltration rate (increased runoff during the first hours of heavy rainfall. The presence of snow avalanche deposits in a gully could be simultaneously an amplifying factor (the snow deposits increase the base flow and create a sliding plane for the sediments, mainly at the time of summer storms or a reducing factor (reduction in the impact energy of the raindrops, mainly at the time of winter storms of the risk of triggering debris flows. If it is not currently possible to establish rainfall threshold values for debris flow triggering, the knowledge and the implementation of these processes in the analysis of the potential triggering (for example by

  10. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from...

  11. Forcing the snow-cover model SNOWPACK with forecasted weather data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Bellaire

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Avalanche danger is often estimated based on snow cover stratigraphy and snow stability data. In Canada, single forecasting regions are very large (>50 000 km2 and snow cover data are often not available. To provide additional information on the snow cover and its seasonal evolution the Swiss snow cover model SNOWPACK was therefore coupled with a regional weather forecasting model GEM15. The output of GEM15 was compared to meteorological as well as snow cover data from Mt. Fidelity, British Columbia, Canada, for five winters between 2005 and 2010. Precipitation amounts are most difficult to predict for weather forecasting models. Therefore, we first assess the capability of the model chain to forecast new snow amounts and consequently snow depth. Forecasted precipitation amounts were generally over-estimated. The forecasted data were therefore filtered and used as input for the snow cover model. Comparison between the model output and manual observations showed that after pre-processing the input data the snow depth and new snow events were well modelled. In a case study two key factors of snow cover instability, i.e. surface hoar formation and crust formation were investigated at a single point. Over half of the relevant critical layers were reproduced. Overall, the model chain shows promising potential as a future forecasting tool for avalanche warning services in Canadian data sparse areas and could thus well be applied to similarly large regions elsewhere. However, a more detailed analysis of the simulated snow cover structure is still required.

  12. Forecasting in Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively. Quantitative forecasting is illustrated with a brief overview of time series methods. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are illustrated by an example. The role and relative importance of forec...

  13. Commuter Airline Forecasts,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-05-01

    conterminous United States (48 contiguous states and the District of Columbia), for the State of Hawaii, and for the U.S. Carribean areas, Puerto Rico and U.S...FAA 15. Supplementary Notes I Abstract This publication presents forecasts of cammuter air carrier activity and describes the models designed for...forecasting Contenninous United States, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Hawaii, and individual airport activity. These forecasts take into account the

  14. Subsampling effects in neuronal avalanche distributions recorded in vivo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Munk Matthias HJ

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many systems in nature are characterized by complex behaviour where large cascades of events, or avalanches, unpredictably alternate with periods of little activity. Snow avalanches are an example. Often the size distribution f(s of a system's avalanches follows a power law, and the branching parameter sigma, the average number of events triggered by a single preceding event, is unity. A power law for f(s, and sigma = 1, are hallmark features of self-organized critical (SOC systems, and both have been found for neuronal activity in vitro. Therefore, and since SOC systems and neuronal activity both show large variability, long-term stability and memory capabilities, SOC has been proposed to govern neuronal dynamics in vivo. Testing this hypothesis is difficult because neuronal activity is spatially or temporally subsampled, while theories of SOC systems assume full sampling. To close this gap, we investigated how subsampling affects f(s and sigma by imposing subsampling on three different SOC models. We then compared f(s and sigma of the subsampled models with those of multielectrode local field potential (LFP activity recorded in three macaque monkeys performing a short term memory task. Results Neither the LFP nor the subsampled SOC models showed a power law for f(s. Both, f(s and sigma, depended sensitively on the subsampling geometry and the dynamics of the model. Only one of the SOC models, the Abelian Sandpile Model, exhibited f(s and sigma similar to those calculated from LFP activity. Conclusion Since subsampling can prevent the observation of the characteristic power law and sigma in SOC systems, misclassifications of critical systems as sub- or supercritical are possible. Nevertheless, the system specific scaling of f(s and sigma under subsampling conditions may prove useful to select physiologically motivated models of brain function. Models that better reproduce f(s and sigma calculated from the physiological

  15. Micro-pixels avalanche photodiodes as radiation detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmadov, F.; Garibov, A.; Madatov, R.; Naghiyev, J.; Sadigov, A; Suleymanov, S.; Sadygov, Z.; Ahmadov, G.; Sadygov, Z.; Zhezher, V.; Mukhtarov, R.; Guliyev, E.; Zerrouk, F.

    2014-01-01

    Full text: In this work it was reported the results of gamma-ray, alpha particle and neutron detecting measurements performed using LFS scintillation crystal by micro-pixels avalanche photodiodes. The gamma ray detection performance investigated in the range of energy 59.6 keV - 1.3 MeV at room temperature. For this measurements Am-241 and Cd-109 sources placed together in front of the detector. Obtained results showed these detectors could be used in many fields e.g. geology of monitoring and exploration of oil and gas fields, medicine, border security and monitoring of contamination areas

  16. Study on avalanche photodiode influence on heterodyne laser interferometer linearity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budzyn, Grzegorz; Podzorny, Tomasz

    2016-06-01

    In the paper we analyze factors reducing the possible accuracy of the heterodyne laser interferometers. The analysis is performed for the avalanche-photodiode input stages but is in main points valid also for stages with other type of photodetectors. Instrumental error originating from optical, electronic and digital signal processing factors is taken into consideration. We stress factors which are critical and those which can be neglected at certain accuracy requirements. In the work we prove that it is possible to reduce errors of the laser instrument below 1 nm point for multiaxial APD based interferometers by precise control of incident optical power and the temperature of the photodiode.

  17. Studies of light emission by continuously sensitive avalanche chambers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charpak, G.; Dominik, W.; Fabre, J.P.; Gaudaen, J.; Sauli, F.; Suzuki, M.

    1988-01-01

    The optimal conditions for the optical recording of images of electron avalanches between parallel meshes have been studied. The emission spectra of gas mixtures have been investigated, where triethylamine (TEA), tetrakis(dimethylamine)ethylene (TMAE), and nitrogen, are used as the photon-emitting agents. For a given charge gain, the photon intensity decreases with electric field. This favours amplification between parallel meshes instead of wires. The use of intensified CCD cameras permits the recording of the local energy loss along the tracks. (orig.)

  18. Double Screening Tests of the CMS ECAL Avalanche Photodiodes

    CERN Document Server

    Deiters, Konrad; Renker, Dieter; Sakhelashvili, Tariel; Britvitch, Ilia; Kuznetsov, Andrey; Musienko, Yuri; Singovsky, Alexander

    2005-01-01

    Specially developed avalanche photo-diodes (APDs) will be used to measure the light from the 61,200 lead tungstate crystals in the barrel part of the CMS electromagnetic calorimeter. To ensure the reliability over the lifetime of the detector, every APD is screened by irradiation and burn-in before it is accepted for CMS. As part of the establishment of the screening procedure and to determine its effectiveness, a large number of APDs were screened twice. The results of these tests suggest that the required reliability will be achieved.

  19. Parallel-plate avalanche detectors with anode wire grids

    CERN Document Server

    Sanabria, J C; Cetina, C; Cole, P L; Dodge, W R; Nedorezov, V G; Sudov, A S; Kezerashvili, G Ya

    2000-01-01

    A fission-fragment detection system was designed and built at The George Washington University, to be used in photofission experiments at the Saskatchewan Accelerator Laboratory and the Jefferson Laboratory. The fission fragments were detected using parallel-plate avalanche detectors with anode wire grids. An array of several target-detector pairs was mounted inside a low-pressure reaction chamber. The results of calibrations of the detectors using a sup 2 sup 5 sup 2 Cf source and their performance with a bremsstrahlung photon beam during the experiments are presented.

  20. Double screening tests of the CMS ECAL avalanche photodiodes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deiters, K.; Ingram, Q.; Renker, D.; Sakhelashvili, T.; Britvitch, I.; Kuznetsov, A.; Musienko, Y.; Singovsky, A.

    2005-01-01

    Specially developed avalanche photodiodes (APDs) will be used to measure the light from the 61,200 lead tungstate crystals in the barrel part of the CMS electromagnetic calorimeter. To ensure the reliability over the lifetime of the detector, every APD is screened by irradiation and burn-in before it is accepted for CMS. As part of the establishment of the screening procedure and to determine its effectiveness, a large number of APDs were screened twice. The results of these tests suggest that the required reliability will be achieved

  1. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  2. Hole-Initiated-Avalanche, Linear-Mode, Single-Photon-Sensitive Avalanche Photodetector with Reduced Excess Noise and Low Dark Count Rate, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A radiation hard, single photon sensitive InGaAs avalanche photodiode (APD) receiver technology will be demonstrated useful for long range space based optical...

  3. World Area Forecast System (WAFS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) is a worldwide system by which world area forecast centers provide aeronautical meteorological en-route forecasts in uniform...

  4. Forensic Analysis of the May 2014 West Salt Creek Rock Avalanche in Western Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coe, J. A.; Baum, R. L.; Allstadt, K.; Kochevar, B. F.; Schmitt, R. G.; Morgan, M. L.; White, J. L.; Stratton, B. T.; Hayashi, T. A.; Kean, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    The rain-on-snow induced West Salt Creek rock avalanche occurred on May 25, 2014 on the northern flank of Grand Mesa. The avalanche was rare for the contiguous U.S. because of its large size (59 M m3) and high mobility (Length/Height=7.2). To understand the avalanche failure sequence, mechanisms, and mobility, we conducted a forensic analysis using large-scale (1:1000) structural mapping and seismic data. We used high-resolution, Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) imagery as a base for our field mapping and analyzed seismic data from 22 broadband stations (distances central, hummock-rich, strike-slip bound core continued to move slowly. Following movement of the core, numerous shallow landslides, rock slides, and rock falls created new structures and modified topography. Mobility of the main avalanche and central core were likely enhanced by valley floor material that liquefied from undrained loading by the overriding avalanche. Although the base was likely at least partially liquefied, our mapping indicates that the overriding avalanche internally deformed predominantly by sliding along discrete shear surfaces in material that was nearly dry and had substantial frictional strength. These results indicate that the West Salt Creek avalanche, and probably other long-traveled avalanches, could be modeled as two layers: a liquefied basal layer; and a thicker and stronger overriding layer.

  5. Low power wide spectrum optical transmitter using avalanche mode LEDs in SOI CMOS technology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Agarwal, Vishal Vishal; Dutta, Satadal; Annema, Anne J.; Hueting, Raymond Josephus Engelbart; Steeneken, P.G.; Nauta, Bram

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a low power monolithically integrated optical transmitter with avalanche mode light emitting diodes in a 140 nm silicon-on-insulator CMOS technology. Avalanche mode LEDs in silicon exhibit wide-spectrum electroluminescence (400 nm < λ < 850 nm), which has a significant overlap

  6. Low power wide spectrum optical transmitter using avalanche mode LEDs in SOI CMOS technology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Agarwal, V.; Dutta, S; Annema, AJ; Hueting, RJE; Steeneken, P.G.; Nauta, B

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a low power monolithically integrated optical transmitter with avalanche mode light emitting diodes in a 140 nm silicon-on-insulator CMOS technology. Avalanche mode LEDs in silicon exhibit wide-spectrum electroluminescence (400 nm < λ < 850 nm), which has a significant

  7. Forecasting in Planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively.

  8. Apparatus and method for recharging a string a avalanche transistors within a pulse generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulkerson, E. Stephen

    2000-01-01

    An apparatus and method for recharging a string of avalanche transistors within a pulse generator is disclosed. A plurality of amplification stages are connected in series. Each stage includes an avalanche transistor and a capacitor. A trigger signal, causes the apparatus to generate a very high voltage pulse of a very brief duration which discharges the capacitors. Charge resistors inject current into the string of avalanche transistors at various points, recharging the capacitors. The method of the present invention includes the steps of supplying current to charge resistors from a power supply; using the charge resistors to charge capacitors connected to a set of serially connected avalanche transistors; triggering the avalanche transistors; generating a high-voltage pulse from the charge stored in the capacitors; and recharging the capacitors through the charge resistors.

  9. Infrasonic and seismic signals of snow avalanches and debris flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kogelnig, Arnold; Suriñach, Emma; Hübl, Johannes; Vilajosana, Ignasi; Hiller, Martin; Dufour, Francois; McArdell, Brian W.

    2010-05-01

    Infrasonic and seismic signals generated by debris flows and snow avalanches are observed by microphones and seismometers, respectively, in near field. The properties of the signals obtained are presented. For debris flows, infrasonic and seismic signals are correlated and their amplitudes show a relationship with flow depth and precipitation data. During the passing of a debris flow several surges identified by ultrasonic gauges are observed in the time series and in the running spectra of infrasonic and seismic data. Both sensors detect the debris flow phenomena before reaching the sensors. Analyses in the time and frequency domains of seismic and acoustic signals from snow avalanches provide information on these natural phenomena. Although time series behaviour of infrasonic and seismic waves is similar, the time series present some differences in the information supplied. Complementarity and peculiarities of the use of these sensors for monitoring purposes are discussed in the paper. During the execution of this study infrasonic signals emitted from helicopters, airplanes and thunder were also identified and are presented

  10. Supershort avalanche electron beam in SF6 and krypton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Cheng; Tarasenko, Victor F.; Gu, Jianwei; Baksht, Evgeni Kh.; Beloplotov, Dmitry V.; Burachenko, Alexander G.; Yan, Ping; Lomaev, Mikhail I.; Shao, Tao

    2016-03-01

    Runaway electrons play an important role in the avalanche formation in nanosecond- and subnanosecond- pulse discharges. In this paper, characteristics of a supershort avalanche electron beam (SAEB) generated at the subnanosecond and nanosecond breakdown in sulfur hexafluoride (SF6 ) in an inhomogeneous electric field were studied. One pulser operated at negative polarity with voltage pulse amplitude of ˜130 kV and rise time of 0.3 ns. The other pulser operated at negative polarity with voltage pulse amplitude of 70 kV and rise time of ˜1.6 ns . SAEB parameters in SF6 are compared with those obtained in krypton (Kr), nitrogen (N2 ), air, and mixtures of SF6 with krypton or nitrogen. Experimental results showed that SAEB currents appeared during the rise-time of the voltage pulse for both pulsers. Moreover, amplitudes of the SAEB current in SF6 and Kr approximately ranged from several to tens of milliamps at atmospheric pressure, which were smaller than those in N2 and air (ranging from hundreds of milliamps to several amperes). Furthermore, the concentration of SF6 additive could significantly reduce the SAEB current in N2-SF6 mixture, but it slightly affected the SAEB current in Kr -SF6 mixture because of the atomic/molecular ionization cross section of the gas had a much greater impact on the SAEB current rather than the electronegativity.

  11. From an electron avalanche to the lightning discharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalikhanov, B. Zh.

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this work is to describe qualitatively the physics of processes which begin with an electron avalanche and finish in a lightning discharge. A streamer model is considered that is based on studies of the recently discovered processes occurring in the prestreamer region. The investigation and analysis of these processes enabled making the conclusion that they are, in essence, the attendant processes, which ensure the electron avalanche-to-streamer transition, and may be interpreted as a manifestation of properties of a double charge layer exposed to the external electric field. The pressing problems of physical processes which form a lightning discharge are considered from the standpoint of new ideas about the mechanism of the streamer formation and growth. Causes of the emergence of coherent super-high-frequency radiation of a leader and the neutron production in a lightning discharge are revealed that have not been explained so far in the theory of gas discharge. Based also on new ideas about the lightning discharge, a simple ball-lightning model, providing answers to almost allquestions formulated from numerous observations on the behavior of ball lightning, is offered, and the need of a new design of lightning protection instead of the traditional rod is discussed.

  12. Does Avalanche Shovel Shape Affect Excavation Time: A Pilot Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kurt Schindelwig

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available In Europe and North America, approximately 150 fatalities occur as a result of avalanches every year. However, it is unclear whether certain shovel shapes are more effective than others in snow removal during avalanche victim recovery. The objective was to determine the performance parameters with a developed standardized test using different shovel shapes and to determine sex-specific differences. Hence, several parameters were determined for clearing the snow from a snow filled box (15 men, 14 women. A flat (F and a deep (D shovel blade with the shaft connected straight (S or in clearing mode (C were used for the investigation of the shovel shapes FS, DC and the subsequent use of DC&DS. Mean snow mass shifted per unit time increased significantly from 1.50 kg/s with FS to 1.71 kg/s (14% with DS and further to 1.79 kg/s (4% with DC&DS for all participants. Snow mass shifted per unit time was 44% higher (p < 0.05 for men than for women. In excavation operations, the sex-specific physical performance should be taken into account. The results were limited to barely binding snow, because only with this snow did the tests show a high reliability.

  13. Scale-free avalanche dynamics in crystal plasticity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ispanovity, Pater Dusan; Laurson, Lasse; Zaiser, Michael; Zapperi, Stefano; Groma, Istvan; Alava, Mikko

    2015-03-01

    We investigate the properties of strain bursts (dislocation avalanches) occurring during plastic deformation of crystalline matter using two dimensional discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD). We perform quasistatic stress-controlled simulations with three DDD models differing in the spatiotemporal discretization and the mobility law assumed for individual dislocations. We find that each model exhibits identical avalanche dynamics with the following properties: (i) strain burst sizes follow a power law distribution characterized by an exponent τ ~ 1 . 0 and (ii) the distribution in truncated at a cutoff that diverges with increasing system size at any applied stress level. It has been proposed earlier that plastic yielding can be described in terms of a continuous phase transition of depinning type and its critical point is at the yield stress. We will demonstrate, however, that our results are inconsistent with cutoff scaling in depinning systems (like magnetic domain walls or earthquakes) and that the system behaves as critical at every stress level. We, therefore, conclude that in the models studied plastic yielding cannot be associated with a continuous phase transition. Financial supports of the Hungarian Scientific Research Fund (OTKA) under Contract Numbers PD-105256 and K-105335 and of the European Commission under Grant Agreement No. CIG-321842 are acknowledged.

  14. Vortex Avalanches with Periodic Arrays of Pinning Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbas, J.; Heckel, T.; Kakalios, J.

    2001-03-01

    Numerical simulations by Nori and co-workers of dynamical phase transitions for magnetic vortices in type II superconductors when the defects which act as pinning sites are arranged in a periodic array have found a dramatic non-linear relationship between vortex voltage and driving current.2,4 In order to experimentally test the predictions of these simulations, a macroscopic physical analog of an array of flux vortices in the presense of an ordered lattice of pinning sites has been constructed. This simple table-top experimental system consists of conventional household magnets, arranged in an ordered grid (serving as the lattice of fixed pinning centers). A plexiglass sheet is positioned above these fixed magnets, and another collection of magnets (representing the magnetic flux vortices), oriented so that they are attracted to the fixed magnets are placed on top of the sheet. The entire apparatus is then tilted to a given angle (the analog of the driving voltage) and the velocity of the avalanching magnets is recorded using the induced voltage in a pick-up coil. By varying the ratio of movable magnets to fixed pinning magnets, the filling fraction can be adjusted, as can the pinning strength, by adjusting the separation of the plexiglass sheet between the fixed and movable magnets. The velocity of the avalanching magnets as the filling fraction is varied displays a jamming transition, with a non-trivial dependence on the pinning strength of the lattice of fixed magnets below the sheet.

  15. Avalanche photo-detection for high data rate applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coldenstrodt-Ronge, H B; Silberhorn, C

    2007-01-01

    Avalanche photo-detection is commonly used in applications which require single-photon sensitivity. We examine the limits of using avalanche photo-diodes (APD) for characterizing photon statistics at high data rates. To identify the regime of linear APD operation, we employ a ps-pulsed diode laser with variable repetition rates between 0.5 MHz and 80 MHz. We modify the mean optical power of the coherent pulses by applying different levels of well-calibrated attenuation. The linearity at high repetition rates is limited by the APD dead time and a nonlinear response arises at higher photon-numbers due to multiphoton events. Assuming Poissonian input-light statistics we ascertain the effective mean photon-number of the incident light with high accuracy. Time multiplexed detectors allow us to accomplish photon-number resolution by 'photon chopping'. This detection setup extends the linear response function to higher photon-numbers and statistical methods may be used to compensate for nonlinearity. We investigate this effect, compare it to the single APD case and show the validity of the convolution treatment in the TMD data analysis

  16. Validating numerical simulations of snow avalanches using dendrochronology: the Cerro Ventana event in Northern Patagonia, Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Casteller

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available The damage caused by snow avalanches to property and human lives is underestimated in many regions around the world, especially where this natural hazard remains poorly documented. One such region is the Argentinean Andes, where numerous settlements are threatened almost every winter by large snow avalanches. On 1 September 2002, the largest tragedy in the history of Argentinean mountaineering took place at Cerro Ventana, Northern Patagonia: nine persons were killed and seven others injured by a snow avalanche. In this paper, we combine both numerical modeling and dendrochronological investigations to reconstruct this event. Using information released by local governmental authorities and compiled in the field, the avalanche event was numerically simulated using the avalanche dynamics programs AVAL-1D and RAMMS. Avalanche characteristics, such as extent and date were determined using dendrochronological techniques. Model simulation results were compared with documentary and tree-ring evidences for the 2002 event. Our results show a good agreement between the simulated projection of the avalanche and its reconstructed extent using tree-ring records. Differences between the observed and the simulated avalanche, principally related to the snow height deposition in the run-out zone, are mostly attributed to the low resolution of the digital elevation model used to represent the valley topography. The main contributions of this study are (1 to provide the first calibration of numerical avalanche models for the Patagonian Andes and (2 to highlight the potential of Nothofagus pumilio tree-ring records to reconstruct past snow-avalanche events in time and space. Future research should focus on testing this combined approach in other forested regions of the Andes.

  17. The strategy of professional forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2006-01-01

    We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the ......We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...

  18. Wet-snow avalanche interaction with a deflecting dam: field observations and numerical simulations in a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Sovilla

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In avalanche-prone areas, deflecting dams are widely used to divert avalanches away from endangered objects. In recent years, their effectiveness has been questioned when several large and multiple avalanches have overrun such dams.

    In 2008, we were able to observe a large wet-snow avalanche, characterized by an high water content, that interacted with a deflecting dam and overflowed it at its lower end. To evaluate the dam's performance, we carried out an airborne laser scanning campaign immediately after the avalanche. This data, together with a video sequence made during the avalanche descent, provided a unique data set to study the dynamics of a wet dense snow avalanche and its flow behavior along a deflecting dam.

    To evaluate the effect of the complex flow field of the avalanche along the dam and to provide a basis for discussion of the residual risk, we performed numerical simulations using a two-dimensional dense snow avalanche dynamics model with entrainment.

    In comparison to dry dense snow avalanches, we found that wet-snow avalanches, with high water content, seem to be differently influenced by the local small-scale topography roughness. Rough terrain close to the dam deflected the flow to produce abrupt impacts with the dam. At the impact sites, instability waves were generated and increased the already large flow depths. The complex flow dynamics around the dam may produce large, local snow deposits. Furthermore, the high water content in the snow may decrease the avalanche internal friction angle, inducing wet-snow avalanches to spread further laterally than dry-snow avalanches.

    Based on our analysis, we made recommendations for designing deflecting dams and for residual risk analysis to take into account the effects of wet-snow avalanche flow.

  19. Risk analysis for dry snow slab avalanche release by skier triggering

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClung, David

    2013-04-01

    Risk analysis is of primary importance for skier triggering of avalanches since human triggering is responsible for about 90% of deaths from slab avalanches in Europe and North America. Two key measureable quantities about dry slab avalanche release prior to initiation are the depth to the weak layer and the slope angle. Both are important in risk analysis. As the slope angle increases, the probability of avalanche release increases dramatically. As the slab depth increases, the consequences increase if an avalanche releases. Among the simplest risk definitions is (Vick, 2002): Risk = (Probability of failure) x (Consequences of failure). Here, these two components of risk are the probability or chance of avalanche release and the consequences given avalanche release. In this paper, for the first time, skier triggered avalanches were analyzed from probability theory and its relation to risk for both the D and . The data consisted of two quantities : (,D) taken from avalanche fracture line profiles after an avalanche has taken place. Two data sets from accidentally skier triggered avalanches were considered: (1) 718 for and (2) a set of 1242 values of D which represent average values along the fracture line. The values of D were both estimated (about 2/3) and measured (about 1/3) by ski guides from Canadian Mountain Holidays CMH). I also analyzed 1231 accidentally skier triggered avalanches reported by CMH ski guides for avalanche size (representing destructive potential) on the Canadian scale. The size analysis provided a second analysis of consequences to verify that using D. The results showed that there is an intermediate range of both D and with highest risk. ForD, the risk (product of consequences and probability of occurrence) is highest for D in the approximate range 0.6 m - 1.0 m. The consequences are low for lower values of D and the chance of release is low for higher values of D. Thus, the highest product is in the intermediate range. For slope angles

  20. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Spatial Electric Load Forecasting Consumer Demand for Power and ReliabilityCoincidence and Load BehaviorLoad Curve and End-Use ModelingWeather and Electric LoadWeather Design Criteria and Forecast NormalizationSpatial Load Growth BehaviorSpatial Forecast Accuracy and Error MeasuresTrending MethodsSimulation Method: Basic ConceptsA Detailed Look at the Simulation MethodBasics of Computerized SimulationAnalytical Building Blocks for Spatial SimulationAdvanced Elements of Computerized SimulationHybrid Trending-Simulation MethodsAdvanced

  1. Avalanche situation in Turkey and back-calculation of selected events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aydın, A.; Bühler, Y.; Christen, M.; Gürer, I.

    2014-01-01

    In Turkey, an average of 24 people dies in snow avalanches every year, mainly in the eastern part of Anatolia and in the eastern Black Sea Region where high mountain ranges are close to the sea. The proportion of people killed in buildings is very high (87%), especially in comparison to other European and American countries. In this paper we discuss avalanche occurrence, the climatic situation and historical avalanche events in Turkey; in addition, we identify bottlenecks and suggest solutions to tackle avalanche problems. Furthermore, we have applied the numerical avalanche simulation software RAMMS combined with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM)-based potential release zone identification algorithm to analyze the catastrophic avalanche events in the villages of Üzengili (Bayburt province) in 1993 and Yaylaönü (Trabzon province) in 1981. The results demonstrate the value of such an approach for regions with poor avalanche databases, enabling the calculation of different scenarios and the estimation of run-out distances, flow velocities, impact pressure and flow height.

  2. Avalanches near a solid insulator in nitrogen gas at atmospheric pressure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahajan, S.M.; Sudarshan, T.S.; Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina 29208)

    1989-01-01

    The pulsed Townsend (PT) technique was used to record the growth of avalanches near a solid insulator in nitrogen gas at 0.1 MPa. Several other nonconventional techniques for releasing initiatory electrons at the cathode are discussed. In this paper, experimental results of avalanches initiated by illuminating a fast (0.6-ns) nitrogen laser onto the cathode triple junction are presented. Data were recorded with plexiglas, Teflon, high-density polyethylene, low-density polyethylene, Delrin, etc. Effect of surface condition, variation of the distance between insulator surface and the avalanche initiation region, and the effect of a large number of previous avalanches on the avalanche characteristics at a particular voltage were studied. The Townsend primary ionization coefficient, hereafter referred to as growth coefficient (α), and drift velocity (V/sub e/) were evaluated through the PT technique. Results indicate that the avalanche growth in the vicinity of a solid insulator is less than that in an identical plain gas gap. Existence of a nonuniform field as a result of surface charges on the insulator and/or field modifications due to the avalanche space charge are believed to be responsible for this behavior

  3. Modeling the influence of snow cover temperature and water content on wet-snow avalanche runout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valero, Cesar Vera; Wever, Nander; Christen, Marc; Bartelt, Perry

    2018-03-01

    Snow avalanche motion is strongly dependent on the temperature and water content of the snow cover. In this paper we use a snow cover model, driven by measured meteorological data, to set the initial and boundary conditions for wet-snow avalanche calculations. The snow cover model provides estimates of snow height, density, temperature and liquid water content. This information is used to prescribe fracture heights and erosion heights for an avalanche dynamics model. We compare simulated runout distances with observed avalanche deposition fields using a contingency table analysis. Our analysis of the simulations reveals a large variability in predicted runout for tracks with flat terraces and gradual slope transitions to the runout zone. Reliable estimates of avalanche mass (height and density) in the release and erosion zones are identified to be more important than an exact specification of temperature and water content. For wet-snow avalanches, this implies that the layers where meltwater accumulates in the release zone must be identified accurately as this defines the height of the fracture slab and therefore the release mass. Advanced thermomechanical models appear to be better suited to simulate wet-snow avalanche inundation areas than existing guideline procedures if and only if accurate snow cover information is available.

  4. THEORY AND PRACTICE OF INDIVIDUAL SNOW AVALANCHE RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr Shnyparkov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the Government of the Russian Federation considerably increased attention to the exploitation of the Russian Arctic territories. Simultaneously, the evaluation of snow avalanches danger was enhanced with the aim to decrease fatalities and reduce economic losses. However, it turned out that solely reporting the degree of avalanche danger is not sufficient. Instead, quantitative information on probabilistic parameters of natural hazards, the characteristics of their effects on the environment and possibly resulting losses is increasingly needed. Such information allows for the estimation of risk, including risk related to snow avalanches. Here, snow avalanche risk is quantified for the Khibiny Mountains, one of the most industrialized parts of the Russian Arctic: Major parts of the territory have an acceptable degree of individual snow avalanche risk (<1×10-6. The territories with an admissible (10-4–10-6 or unacceptable (>1×10-4 degree of individual snow avalanche risk (0.5 and 2% of the total area correspond to the Southeast of the Khibiny Mountains where settlements and mining industries are situated. Moreover, due to an increase in winter tourism, some traffic infrastructure is located in valleys with an admissible or unacceptable degree of individual snow avalanches risk.

  5. Multiplication theory for dynamically biased avalanche photodiodes: new limits for gain bandwidth product.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayat, Majeed M; Ramirez, David A

    2012-03-26

    Novel theory is developed for the avalanche multiplication process in avalanche photodiodes (APDs) under time-varying reverse-biasing conditions. Integral equations are derived characterizing the statistics of the multiplication factor and the impulse-response function of APDs, as well as their breakdown probability, all under the assumption that the electric field driving the avalanche process is time varying and spatially nonuniform. Numerical calculations generated by the model predict that by using a bit-synchronous sinusoidal biasing scheme to operate the APD in an optical receiver, the pulse-integrated gain-bandwidth product can be improved by a factor of 5 compared to the same APD operating under the conventional static biasing. The bit-synchronized periodic modulation of the electric field in the multiplication region serves to (1) produce large avalanche multiplication factors with suppressed avalanche durations for photons arriving in the early phase of each optical pulse; and (2) generate low avalanche gains and very short avalanche durations for photons arriving in the latter part of each optical pulse. These two factors can work together to reduce intersymbol interference in optical receivers without sacrificing sensitivity.

  6. NYHOPS Forecast Model Results

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 3D Marine Nowcast/Forecast System for the New York Bight NYHOPS subdomain. Currents, waves, surface meteorology, and water conditions.

  7. Slab entrainment and surge dynamics of the 2015 Valleé de la Sionne avalanches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köhler, Anselm; McElwaine, Jim; Sovilla, Betty

    2016-04-01

    On 3 February 2015 five avalanches were artificially released at the Valleé de la Sionne test site in the west of Switzerland. The dense parts of the avalanches were tracked by the GEODAR Mark 2 radar system at 111 Hz framerate with 0.75 m down slope resolution. The data show that these avalanche contain several internal surges and that the avalanche front is repeatedly overtaken by some of these surges. We show that these surges exist on different scale. While the major surges originates from secondary triggered slab releases and occur all over the avalanche. The minor surges are only found in the energetic part of a well developed powder snow avalanche. The mass of the major surges can be as huge as the initial released mass, this has a dramatic effect on the mass distribution inside the avalanche and effects the front velocity and run out. Furthermore, the secondary released snow slabs are an important entrainment mechanism and up to 50 percent of the mass entered the avalanche via slab entrainment. We analyse the dynamics of the leading edge and the minor surges in more detail using a simple one dimensional model with frictional resistance and quadratic velocity dependent drag. These models fit the data well for the start and middle of avalanche but cannot capture the slowing and overtaking of the minor surge. We find much higher friction coefficients to describe the surging. We propose that this data can only be explained by changes in the snow surface. These effects are not included in current models yet, but the data presented here will enable the development and verification of such models.

  8. Avalanche dynamics for active matter in heterogeneous media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichhardt, C. J. O.; Reichhardt, C.

    2018-02-01

    Using numerical simulations, we examine the dynamics of run-and-tumble disks moving in a disordered array of fixed obstacles. As a function of increasing active disk density and activity, we find a transition from a completely clogged state to a continuous flowing phase, and in the large activity limit, we observe an intermittent state where the motion occurs in avalanches that are power law distributed in size with an exponent of β =1.46. In contrast, in the thermal or low activity limit we find bursts of motion that are not broadly distributed in size. We argue that in the highly active regime, the system reaches a self-jamming state due to the activity-induced self-clustering, and that the intermittent dynamics is similar to that found in the yielding of amorphous solids. Our results show that activity is another route by which particulate systems can be tuned to a nonequilibrium critical state.

  9. Studies of avalanche photodiodes for scintillating fibre tracking readout

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fenker, H.; Thomas, J.

    1993-01-01

    Avalanche Photodiodes (APDs) operating in ''Geiger Mode'' have been studied in a fibre tracking readout environment. A fast recharge circuit has been developed for high rate data taking, and results obtained from a model fibre tracker in the test beam at Brookhaven National Laboratory are presented. A high rate calibrated light source has been developed using a commercially available laser diode and has been used to measure the efficiency of the devices. The transmission of the light from a 1mm fibre onto a 0.5mm diameter APD surface has been identified as the main problem in the use of these particular devices for scintillating fibre tracking in the Superconducting Supercollider environment. Solutions to this problem are proposed

  10. Temperature Control of Avalanche Photodiode Using Thermoelectric Cooler

    Science.gov (United States)

    Refaat, Tamer F.; Luck, William S., Jr.; DeYoung, Russell J.

    1999-01-01

    Avalanche photodiodes (APDS) are quantum optical detectors that are used for visible and near infrared optical detection applications. Although APDs are compact, rugged, and have an internal gain mechanism that is suitable for low light intensity; their responsivity, and therefore their output, is strongly dependent on the device temperature. Thermoelectric coolers (TEC) offers a suitable solution to this problem. A TEC is a solid state cooling device, which can be controlled by changing its current. TECs are compact and rugged, and they can precisely control the temperature to within 0.1 C with more than a 150 C temperature gradient between its surfaces. In this Memorandum, a proportional integral (PI) temperature controller for APDs using a TEC is discussed. The controller is compact and can successfully cool the APD to almost 0 C in an ambient temperature environment of up to 27 C.

  11. Single Photon Avalanche Diodes: Towards the Large Bidimensional Arrays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilio Sciacca

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Single photon detection is one of the most challenging goals of photonics. In recent years, the study of ultra-fast and/or low-intensity phenomena has received renewed attention from the academic and industrial communities. Intense research activity has been focused on bio-imaging applications, bio-luminescence, bio-scattering methods, and, more in general, on several applications requiring high speed operation and high timing resolution. In this paper we present design and characterization of bi-dimensional arrays of a next generation of single photon avalanche diodes (SPADs. Single photon sensitivity, dark noise, afterpulsing and timing resolution of the single SPAD have been examined in several experimental conditions. Moreover, the effects arising from their integration and the readout mode have also been deeply investigated.

  12. Correcting for accidental correlations in saturated avalanche photodiodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grieve, J A; Chandrasekara, R; Tang, Z; Cheng, C; Ling, A

    2016-02-22

    In this paper we present a general method for estimating rates of accidental coincidence between a pair of single photon detectors operated within their saturation regimes. By folding the effects of recovery time of both detectors and the detection circuit into an "effective duty cycle" we are able to accomodate complex recovery behaviour at high event rates. As an example, we provide a detailed high-level model for the behaviour of passively quenched avalanche photodiodes, and demonstrate effective background subtraction at rates commonly associated with detector saturation. We show that by post-processing using the updated model, we observe an improvement in polarization correlation visibility from 88.7% to 96.9% in our experimental dataset. This technique will be useful in improving the signal-to-noise ratio in applications which depend on coincidence measurements, especially in situations where rapid changes in flux may cause detector saturation.

  13. Application of Ultraviolet Light in Dental Identification of Avalanche Victims.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agrawal, Nitin Kumar; Dahal, Samarika; Wasti, Harihar; Soon, Alistair

    2017-09-08

    In any disaster, it becomes important to identify the deceased for ethical, social and legal causes.Out of the numerous methods of identification, dental comparison is considered to be one of the scientific methods in a Disaster Victim Identification process. The two victims of avalanche in Nepal were identified using dental comparison. The two bodies brought for examination were unidentifiable visually. To aid identification of tooth coloured restorations, ultraviolet light was used. The ultraviolet light made the tooth coloured restorations appear distinct from the adjacent tooth structure in one of the cases. This helped in post-mortem charting of dental examination with greater accuracy. When the ante-mortem dental records and the post-mortem dental findings were compared, positive identification was made for both the cases. The bodies were then handed over to their respective kin. These cases highlighted the importance of ultraviolet light in post-mortem dental examination and the significance of forensic dentistry in identification process.

  14. TCAD simulations for a novel single-photon avalanche diode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xiangliang; Yang, Jia; Yang, Hongjiao; Tang, Lizhen; Liu, Weihui

    2015-03-01

    A single-photon avalanche diode (SPAD) device with P+-SEN junction, and a low concentration of N-type doping circular virtual guard-ring was presented in this paper. SEN layer of the proposed SPAD has high concentration of N-type doping, causing the SPAD low breakdown voltage (~14.26 V). What's more, an efficient and narrow (about 2μm) guard-ring of the proposed SPAD not only can withstand considerably higher electric fields for preventing edge breakdown, but also offers a little increment in fill factor compared with existing SPADs due to its small area. In addition, some Silvaco TCAD simulations have been done and verify characteristics and performance of the design in this work.

  15. Mechanics of debris flows and rock avalanches: Chapter 43

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iverson, Richard M.; Fernando, Harindra Joseph

    2012-01-01

    Debris flows are geophysical phenomena intermediate in character between rock avalanches and flash floods. They commonly originate as water-laden landslides on steep slopes and transform into liquefied masses of fragmented rock, muddy water, and entrained organic matter that disgorge from canyons onto valley floors. Typically including 50%–70% solid grains by volume, attaining speeds >10 m/s, and ranging in size up to ∼109 m3, debris flows can denude mountainsides, inundate floodplains, and devastate people and property (Figure 43.1). Notable recent debris-flow disasters resulted in more than 20,000 fatalities in Armero, Colombia, in 1985 and in Vargas state, Venezuela, in 1999.

  16. Interevent Correlations from Avalanches Hiding Below the Detection Threshold

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janićević, Sanja; Laurson, Lasse; Mâløy, Knut Jørgen; Santucci, Stéphane; Alava, Mikko J.

    2016-12-01

    Numerous systems ranging from deformation of materials to earthquakes exhibit bursty dynamics, which consist of a sequence of events with a broad event size distribution. Very often these events are observed to be temporally correlated or clustered, evidenced by power-law-distributed waiting times separating two consecutive activity bursts. We show how such interevent correlations arise simply because of a finite detection threshold, created by the limited sensitivity of the measurement apparatus, or used to subtract background activity or noise from the activity signal. Data from crack-propagation experiments and numerical simulations of a nonequilibrium crack-line model demonstrate how thresholding leads to correlated bursts of activity by separating the avalanche events into subavalanches. The resulting temporal subavalanche correlations are well described by our general scaling description of thresholding-induced correlations in crackling noise.

  17. Sixteen-year follow-up of childhood avalanche survivors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edda Bjork Thordardottir

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Every year a substantial number of children are affected by natural disasters worldwide. However, data are scarce on long-term psychological impact of natural disasters on children's health. Identifying risk factors and outcomes associated with the long-term sequelae of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD can provide a gateway to recovery as well as enhancement of preventive measures. Objective: Among childhood avalanche survivors, we aimed to investigate risk factors for PTSD symptoms and the relationship between socioeconomic status (SES and PTSD symptoms in adulthood. Methods: Childhood survivors (aged 2–19 at the time of exposure of two avalanches were identified through nationwide registers 16 years later. The Posttraumatic Diagnostic Scale was used to assess current PTSD symptoms. One-way ANOVA was used to explore PTSD symptoms by background and trauma-specific factors, as well as associations with current SES. Predictors of PTSD symptoms were examined by multivariable regression analysis. Results: Response rate was 66% (108/163. Results from univariate ANOVA analysis revealed that female sex was associated with PTSD symptoms (F=5.96, p<0.05. When adjusted for age and sex, PTSD symptoms were associated with lower education (F=7.62, p<0.001, poor financial status (F=12.21, p<0.001, and unemployment and/or disability (F=3.04, p<0.05. In a multivariable regression model, when adjusting for age and sex, lack of social support (t=4.22, p<0.001 and traumatic reactions of caregivers (t=2.49, p<0.05 in the aftermath of the disaster independently predicted PTSD 16 years post-trauma. Conclusions: Lingering PTSD symptoms after childhood exposure to a disaster may negatively influence socioeconomic development in adulthood. Strengthening children's support systems post-disaster may prevent the long-term sequelae of symptoms.

  18. XeCl avalanche discharge laser employing Ar as a diluent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sze, R.C.

    1979-10-10

    A XeCl avalanche discharge exciplex laser which uses a gaseous lasing starting mixture of: 0.2 to 0.4% chlorine donor/2.5% to 10% Xe/97.3% to 89.6% Ar) is provided. The chlorine donor normally comprises HCl but can also comprise CCl/sub 4/ BCl/sub 3/. Use of Ar as a diluent gas reduces operating pressures over other rare gas halide lasers to near atmospheric pressure, increases output lasing power of the XeCl avalanche discharge laser by 30% to exceed KrF avalanche discharge lasing outputs, and is less expensive to operate.

  19. Avalanche diode having reduced dark current and method for its manufacture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davids, Paul; Starbuck, Andrew Lee; Pomerene, Andrew T. S.

    2017-08-29

    An avalanche diode includes an absorption region in a germanium body epitaxially grown on a silicon body including a multiplication region. Aspect-ratio trapping is used to suppress dislocation growth in the vicinity of the absorption region.

  20. Single Photon Sensitive HgCdTe Avalanche Photodiode Detector (APD) Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A linear mode HgCdT electron-initiated avalanche photodiode (EAPD) capable of 1570nm photon detection efficiency (PDE) at >10 MHz will be developed. The Phase I...

  1. Readout of scintillator light with avalanche photodiodes for positron emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ruru; Fremout, A.; Tavernier, S.; Bruyndonckx, P.; Clement, D.; Loude, J.-F.; Morel, C.

    1999-01-01

    The noise properties and other relevant characteristics of avalanche photodiodes have been investigated with the perspective of replacing photomultiplier tubes in positron emission tomography. It is clearly demonstrated that they are a valid alternative to photomultiplier tubes in this application

  2. Observation of the Avalanche of Runaway Electrons in Air in a Strong Electric Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurevich, A. V.; Mesyats, G. A.; Zybin, K. P.; Yalandin, M. I.; Reutova, A. G.; Shpak, V. G.; Shunailov, S. A.

    2012-08-01

    The generation of an avalanche of runaway electrons is demonstrated for the first time in a laboratory experiment. Two flows of runaway electrons are formed sequentially in an extended air discharge gap at the stage of delay of a pulsed breakdown. The first, picosecond, runaway electron flow is emitted in the cathode region where the field is enhanced. Being accelerated in the gap, this beam generates electrons due to impact ionization. These secondary electrons form a delayed avalanche of runaway electrons if the field is strong enough. The properties of the avalanche correspond to the existing notions about the runaway breakdown in air. The measured current of the avalanche exceeds up to an order the current of the initiating electron beam.

  3. Extended Wavelength InP Based Avalanche Diodes for MWIR Response, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — For this NASA STTR program, we propose to develop a novel superlattice-based near infrared to midwave infrared avalanche photodetector (APD) grown on InP substrates...

  4. Analysis of the dynamic avalanche of punch through insulated gate bipolar transistor (PT-IGBT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefranc, P.; Planson, D.; Morel, H.; Bergogne, D.

    2009-09-01

    In the paper proposed here, we are studying the dynamic avalanche from experimental results first, dynamic avalanche is identified on a punch through insulated gate bipolar transistor (PT-IGBT) module 1200 V-300 A from Mitsubishi. Secondly, the phenomenon is analysed thanks to simple solid state devices equations. Numerical simulations are used to confirm experimental results. Simulation results allows us locating the active area of the dynamic avalanche during turn-off under over-current conditions. A PT-IGBT cell is described with MEDICI™, a finite element simulator. A mixed-mode simulation is performed thanks to MEDICI™ and SPICE™. The circuit simulated here is a buck topology with an inductive load. Finally, a thermal analysis is performed to estimate temperature increase due to dynamic avalanche.

  5. Backcountry snowmobilers' risk perceptions, avalanche related information seeking behaviours, preparedness and decision-making processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Jennifer

    Although there has been substantial research on the avoidance of risk, much less has been completed on voluntary risk. This study examined backcountry snowmobilers' risk perceptions, avalanche related information seeking behaviours, and decision-making processes when dealing with avalanches and backcountry risk in Canada. To accomplish this, in-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 17 participants who were involved in backcountry snowmobiling. Interviews were done both in person and by telephone. The results of this study show that, unlike previous research on snowmobilers, the participants of this study were well prepared and knowledgeable about backcountry risks. All 17 participants stated that they carried a shovel, probe, and transceiver with them on each backcountry trip, and 10 participants had taken an avalanche safety course. Group dynamics and positive peer pressure were influential in promoting safe backcountry behaviour. KEYWORDS: Backcountry snowmobiling, Avalanches, Voluntary Risk, Preparedness, Decision-Making.

  6. Secondary instability in drift wave turbulence as a mechanism for avalanche and zonal flow formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diamond, P.H.; Champeaux, S.; Malkov, M.

    2001-01-01

    We report on recent developments in the theory of secondary instability in drift-ITG turbulence. Specifically, we explore secondary instability as a mechanism for avalanche formation. A theory of radially extended streamer cell formation and self-regulation is presented. Aspects of streamer structure and dynamics are used to estimate the variance of the drift-wave induced flux. The relation between streamer cell structures and the avalanche concept is discussed, as are the implications of our results for transport modeling. (author)

  7. Spike avalanches exhibit universal dynamics across the sleep-wake cycle.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiago L Ribeiro

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Scale-invariant neuronal avalanches have been observed in cell cultures and slices as well as anesthetized and awake brains, suggesting that the brain operates near criticality, i.e. within a narrow margin between avalanche propagation and extinction. In theory, criticality provides many desirable features for the behaving brain, optimizing computational capabilities, information transmission, sensitivity to sensory stimuli and size of memory repertoires. However, a thorough characterization of neuronal avalanches in freely-behaving (FB animals is still missing, thus raising doubts about their relevance for brain function.To address this issue, we employed chronically implanted multielectrode arrays (MEA to record avalanches of action potentials (spikes from the cerebral cortex and hippocampus of 14 rats, as they spontaneously traversed the wake-sleep cycle, explored novel objects or were subjected to anesthesia (AN. We then modeled spike avalanches to evaluate the impact of sparse MEA sampling on their statistics. We found that the size distribution of spike avalanches are well fit by lognormal distributions in FB animals, and by truncated power laws in the AN group. FB data surrogation markedly decreases the tail of the distribution, i.e. spike shuffling destroys the largest avalanches. The FB data are also characterized by multiple key features compatible with criticality in the temporal domain, such as 1/f spectra and long-term correlations as measured by detrended fluctuation analysis. These signatures are very stable across waking, slow-wave sleep and rapid-eye-movement sleep, but collapse during anesthesia. Likewise, waiting time distributions obey a single scaling function during all natural behavioral states, but not during anesthesia. Results are equivalent for neuronal ensembles recorded from visual and tactile areas of the cerebral cortex, as well as the hippocampus.Altogether, the data provide a comprehensive link between behavior

  8. High pressure pulsed avalanche discharges: Scaling of required preionization rate for homogeneity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenning, N.; Axnaes, I.; Nilsson, J.O.; Eninger, J.E.

    1994-01-01

    Homogeneous high-pressure discharges can be formed by pulsed avalanche breakdown, provided that the individual avalanche heads have diffused to a large enough radius to overlap before streamer breakdown occurs. The overlap condition can be met by using an external mechanism to preionize the neutral gas, e.g., x-rays or uv radiation. There are several scenarios, (1) to preionize the gas, and then trigger the discharge by the sudden application of an electric field, (2) to apply an overvoltage over the discharge and trigger the discharge by external ionization, or (3) to have a continuous rate of external ionization and let the E field rise, with a comparatively long time constant τ, across the breakdown value (E/n) 0 . The authors here study the last of these scenarios, which gives a very efficient use of the preionization source because the avalanche startpoint can accumulate during the pre-avalanche phase. The authors have found that the required avalanche startpoint density N st.p , defined as the density of individual single, or clusters of, electrons at the time when the electric field crosses the breakdown value, scales with pressure and rise time as N st.p ∝ p 21/4 τ -3/4 . This pressure scaling disagrees with the p 3/2 scaling found by Levatter and Lin (J. Appl. Phys. 51(1), 210), while the rise time scaling agrees satisfactorily with their results. For an E field which rises slowly across the breakdown value, the pre-avalanche accumulation of electrons must be taken into account, as well as the fact that the density n e of free electrons becomes larger than the density N st.p of independent avalanche heads: when electron impact ionization closely balances attachment, individual electrons are replaced by clusters of electrons which are too close to form individual avalanche heads

  9. Multiwire proportional chamber and multistage avalanche chamber with low concentration photoionization gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Pingde; Xu Zhiqing; Tang Xiaowei

    1986-01-01

    The characteristics of multiwire proportional chamber and multistage avalanche chamber filled with argon and photoionization gas (C 2 H 5 ) 3 N were measured. The spatial resolution curves and output pulse height spectra were measured as well. Low concentration (C 2 H 5 ) 3 N can play an effective part in quenching. At very low concentration, the phenomena of avalanche transverse expansion was observed obviously

  10. Noise Performance of Millimeter-wave Silicon Based Mixed Tunneling Avalanche Transit Time(MITATT) Diode

    OpenAIRE

    Aritra Acharyya; Moumita Mukherjee; J. P. Banerjee

    2010-01-01

    A generalized method for small-signal simulation of avalanche noise in Mixed Tunneling Avalanche Transit Time (MITATT) device is presented in this paper where the effect of series resistance is taken into account. The method is applied to a millimeter-wave Double Drift Region (DDR) MITATT device based on Silicon to obtain noise spectral density and noise measure as a function of frequency for different values of series resistance. It is found that noise measure of the dev...

  11. Parameters of an avalanche of runaway electrons in air under atmospheric pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oreshkin, E. V.

    2018-01-01

    The features of runaway-electron avalanches developing in air under atmospheric pressures are investigated in the framework of a three-dimensional numerical simulation. The simulation results indicate that an avalanche of this type can be characterized, besides the time and length of its exponential growth, by the propagation velocity and by the average kinetic energy of the runaway electrons. It is shown that these parameters obey the similarity laws applied to gas discharges.

  12. Statistical analysis and trends of wet snow avalanches in the French Alps over the period 1959-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naaim, Mohamed

    2017-04-01

    Since an avalanche contains a significant proportion of wet snow, its characteristics and its behavior change significantly (heterogeneous and polydisperse). Even if on a steep given slope, wet snow avalanches are slow. They can flow over gentle slopes and reach the same extensions as dry avalanches. To highlight the link between climate warming and the proliferation of wet snow avlanches, we crossed two well-documented avalanche databases: the permanent avalanche chronicle (EPA) and the meteorological re-analyzes. For each avalanche referenced in EPA, a moisture index I is buit. It represents the ratio of the thickness of the wet snow layer to the total snow thickness, at the date of the avalanche on the concerned massif at 2400 m.a.s.l. The daily and annual proportion of avalanches exceeding a given threshold of I are calculated for each massif of the French alps. The statistical distribution of wet avalanches per massif is calculated over the period 1959-2009. The statistical quantities are also calculated over two successive periods of the same duration 1959-1984 and 1984-2009, and the annual evolution of the proportion of wet avalanches is studied using time-series tools to detect potential rupture or trends. This study showed that about 77% of avalanches on the French alpine massif mobilize dry snow. The probability of having an avalanche of a moisture index greater than 10 % in a given year is 0.2. This value varies from one massif to another. The analysis between the two successive periods showed a significant growth of wet avalanches on 20 massifs and a decrease on 3 massifs. The study of time-series confirmed these trends, which are of the inter-annual variability level.

  13. Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

  14. Granular avalanches across irregular three-dimensional terrain: 2. Experimental tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iverson, Richard M.; Logan, Matthew; Denlinger, Roger P.

    2004-03-01

    Scaling considerations indicate that miniature experiments can be used to test models of granular avalanches in which the effects of intergranular fluid and cohesion are negligible. To test predictions of a granular avalanche model described in a companion paper, we performed bench top experiments involving avalanches of dry sand across irregular basal topography that mimicked the complexity of natural terrain. The experiments employed a novel method of laser-assisted cartography to map the three-dimensional morphology of rapidly moving avalanches, thereby providing high-resolution data for comparison with model output. Model input consisted of two material properties (angles of internal and basal Coulomb friction of the sand), which were measured in independent tests, and of initial and boundary conditions that characterized the geometry of the experimental apparatus. Experimental results demonstrate that the model accurately predicts not only the gross behavior but also many details of avalanche motion, from initiation to deposition. We attribute this accuracy to a mathematical and computational formulation that conserves mass and momentum in three-dimensional physical space and satisfies the Coulomb equation in three-dimensional stress space. Our results support the hypothesis that a Coulomb proportionality between shear and normal stresses applies in moderately rapid granular flows and that complicated constitutive postulates are unnecessary if momentum conservation is strictly enforced in continuum avalanche models. Furthermore, predictions of our Coulomb continuum model contrast with those of a Coulomb point mass model, illustrating the importance of multidimensional modeling and model testing.

  15. Is extracorporeal rewarming indicated in avalanche victims with unwitnessed hypothermic cardiorespiratory arrest?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mair, Peter; Brugger, Hermann; Mair, Birgit; Moroder, Luca; Ruttmann, Elfriede

    2014-12-01

    International guidelines recommend using extracorporeal rewarming in all hypothermic avalanche victims with prolonged cardiac arrest if they have patent airways and a plasma potassium level≤12 mmol/L. The aim of this study was to evaluate outcome data to determine if available experience with extracorporeal rewarming of avalanche victims supports this recommendation. At Innsbruck Medical University Hospital, 28 patients with hypothermic cardiac arrest following an avalanche accident were resuscitated using extracorporeal circulation. Of these patients, 25 were extricated from the snow masses with no vital signs and did not survive to hospital discharge. Three patients had witnessed cardiac arrest after extrication and a core temperature of 21.7°C, 22°C, and 24.0°C, two of whom survived long-term with full neurological recovery. A search of the literature revealed only one asystolic avalanche victim with unwitnessed hypothermic cardiac arrest (core temperature 19°C) surviving long-term. All other avalanche victims in the medical literature surviving prolonged hypothermic cardiac arrest suffered witnessed arrest after extrication with a core temperature below 24°C. Our results suggest that prognosis of hypothermic avalanche victims with unwitnessed asystolic cardiac arrest and a core temperature>24°C is extremely poor. Available outcome data do not support the use of extracorporeal rewarming in these patients.

  16. Financial Analysts’ Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stæhr, Simone

    in the decision making and the magnitude of these constraints does sometimes vary with personal traits. Therefore, to the extent that financial analysts are subjects to behavioral biases their outputs to the investors are likely to be biased by their interpretation of information. Because investors need accuracy....... The primary focus is on financial analysts in the task of conducting earnings forecasts while a secondary focus is on investors’ abilities to interpret and make use of these forecasts. Simply put, financial analysts can be seen as information intermediators receiving inputs to their analyses from firm...... management and providing outputs to the investors. Amongst various outputs from the analysts are forecasts of earnings. According to decision theories mostly from the literature in psychology all humans are affected by cognitive constraints to some degree. These constraints may lead to unintentional biases...

  17. Spatial load forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willis, H.L.; Engel, M.V.; Buri, M.J.

    1995-04-01

    The reliability, efficiency, and economy of a power delivery system depend mainly on how well its substations, transmission lines, and distribution feeders are located within the utility service area, and how well their capacities match power needs in their respective localities. Often, utility planners are forced to commit to sites, rights of way, and equipment capacities year in advance. A necessary element of effective expansion planning is a forecast of where and how much demand must be served by the future T and D system. This article reports that a three-stage method forecasts with accuracy and detail, allowing meaningful determination of sties and sizes for future substation, transmission, and distribution facilities.

  18. Forecast of auroral activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lui, A.T.Y.

    2004-01-01

    A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting, namely, the area, the power, and the rates of change in area and power. This new technique is quite accurate, as indicated by the high true skill scores for forecasting three different levels of auroral dissipation during the activity lifetime. The corresponding advanced warning time ranges from 22 to 79 min from low to high dissipation levels

  19. Combining forecasts in short term load forecasting: Empirical ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We present an empirical analysis to show that combination of short term load forecasts leads to better accuracy. We also discuss other aspects of combination, i.e.,distribution of weights, effect of variation in the historical window and distribution of forecast errors. The distribution of forecast errors is analyzed in order to get a ...

  20. Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find...

  1. CDM Convective Forecast Planning guidance

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CDM Convective Forecast Planning (CCFP) guidance product provides a foreast of en-route aviation convective hazards. The forecasts are updated every 2 hours and...

  2. Battlescale Forecast Model Sensitivity Study

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sauter, Barbara

    2003-01-01

    .... Changes to the surface observations used in the Battlescale Forecast Model initialization led to no significant changes in the resulting forecast values of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, or wind direction...

  3. Challenges of operational river forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pagano, T.C.; Wood, A.W.; Ramos, M.H.; Cloke, H.L.; Pappenbreger, F.; Verkade, J.S.

    2014-01-01

    Skillful and timely streamflow forecasts are critically important to water managers and emergency protection services. To provide these forecasts, hydrologists must predict the behavior of complex coupled human–natural systems using incomplete and uncertain information and imperfect models.

  4. Monitoring snow avalanches in the medium range by a network of infrasonic arrays: first results

    Science.gov (United States)

    ulivieri, giacomo; marchetti, emanuele; ripepe, maurizio; durand, nathalie; frigo, barbara; chiambretti, igor; segor, valerio

    2013-04-01

    Monitoring of small-to-medium sized avalanches activity represents a crucial parameter to compare predictions and real effects. However, at present natural avalanche activity is mainly based on field observations, which have a limited range and are possible only during the daylight. Since 2009, the Department of Earth Sciences of University of Florence in collaboration with the Regione Valle d'Aosta is using the infrasonic array technology for near real-time monitoring of natural and artificial avalanche activity in the Alpine area. The results obtained during the last 3 years indicate that small-to-medium sized snow avalanches can be detected in the short-to-medium range distance (2-6 km). However, despite single array analysis allows to recognise many natural (microbarom, earthquakes, avalanches) and artificial (airplane, explosions) infrasound sources by using apparent velocity criterion, any unique identification and precise location of infrasonic sources is not possible without any additional information. In order to solve this problem, the monitoring system is upgraded by installing two additional arrays. In fact, a network of 3 arrays is operating since December 2012 around the MonteRosa and Cervino international ski resorts on the related massifs. Each infrasonic array consists of 4 infrasonic sensors deployed in triangular geometry and ~150 m of aperture. Data are sampled at 100 Hz and transmitted in real-time to Department of Earth Sciences in Florence for near real-time (<2 minutes) processing. The network has improved the capability in locating avalanches sources in a medium range distance (from 6 km to more than 10 km). In fact, the 3 arrays are covering an area of ~ 250 km2. Efficiency of source location and sensitivity of this infrasonic array network are tested by using artificial triggered avalanches: avalanches can now be located with a precision of ~ 1 km. Information on geographical position, origin time and infrasonic energy will be supplied to

  5. Fractal dimension of debris-avalanche deposits in the Hawaiian submarine landslide deposits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokose, H.; Yamato, S.

    2005-12-01

    17 landslide deposits on the flanks of the southern Hawaiian Ridge have been classified into two major types: SLUMPS, which moved slowly as a coherent mass, and DEBRIS AVALANCHES, which moved quickly.The debris-avalanche deposits are predominant on submarine flanks of volcanic ocean islands elsewhere in the world. Such huge landslides are considered to produce giant tsunamis and megaturbidites covering large areas of abyssal plains. Based on the small scale topographic elements, we reinvestigated the distribution areas and emplacement styles of the debris-avalanche deposits, which differ from those previously proposed from GLORIA images without benefit of detailed bathymetric data or direct seafloor observations. There are several types of small scale topographic elements in the debris-avalanche deposits previously proposed: source amphitheater, toppled blocks, marginal levee, slide-emplaced blocks, chute, mud wave, hummocky terrain. They are very similar to those appeared in subaerial volcanic debris-avalanche fields. However, no correlation between the collapse height and runout distance are observed in the submarine debris-avalanche deposits. The hummocky terrains can be classified into two types: FLAT-TYPE, which is distributed in the nearly flat abyssal plain, less than 0.5 degree, and SLOPE-TYPE, which located on the lower part of the submarine flanks, greater than 1 degree. The size of hummocks in a slope-type hummocky terrain have an unimodal distribution pattern with a broad peak in the number of hummocks versus height category diagram. On the contrary, the size of hummocks in flat-type hummocky terrains have a power law distribution pattern in the same diagram. The fractal dimensions calculated from these diagrams are 1.19 (Nuuanu landslide), 2.32 (Ka Lae landslide) and 2.96 (Alika 2 debris-avalanche), respectively. They are expected to reflect the processes and degree of fragmentation. Therefore, among the debris_]avalanche deposits proposed previously

  6. The September 1988 intracaldera avalanche and eruption at Fernandina volcano, Galapagos Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadwick, W.W.; De Roy, T.; Carrasco, A.

    1991-01-01

    During 14-16 September 1988, a large intracaldera avalanche and an eruption of basaltic tephra and lava at Fernandina volcano, Galapagos, produced the most profound changes within the caldera since its collapse in 1968. A swarm of eight earthquakes (mb 4.7-5.5) occurred in a 14 h period on 24 February 1988 at Fernandina, and two more earthquakes of this size followed on 15 April and 20 May, respectively. On 14 September 1988, another earthquake (mb 4.6) preceded a complex series of events. A debris avalanche was generated by the failure of a fault-bounded segment of the east caldera wall, approximately 2 km long and 300 m wide. The avalanche deposit is up to 250 m thick and has an approximate volume of 0.9 km3. The avalanche rapidly displaced a preexisting lake from the southeast end of the caldera floor to the northwest end, where the water washed up against the lower part of the caldera wall, then gradually seeped into the avalanche deposit and was completely gone by mid-January 1989. An eruption began in the caldera within about 1-2 h of the earthquake, producing a vigorous tephra plume for about 12 h, then lava flows during the next two days. The eruption ended late on 16 September. Most of the eruptive activity was from vents on the caldera floor near the base of the new avalanche scar. Unequivocal relative timing of events is difficult to determine, but seismic records suggest that the avalanche may have occurred 1.6 h after the earthquake, and field relations show that lava was clearly erupted after the avalanche was emplaced. The most likely sequence of events seems to be that the 1988 feeder dike intruded upward into the east caldera wall, dislocated the unstable wall block, and triggered the avalanche. The avalanche immediately exposed the newly emplaced dike and initiated the eruption. The exact cause of the earthquakes is unknown. ?? 1991 Springer-Verlag.

  7. Are demand forecasting techniques applicable to libraries?

    OpenAIRE

    Sridhar, M. S.

    1984-01-01

    Examines the nature and limitations of demand forecasting, discuses plausible methods of forecasting demand for information, suggests some useful hints for demand forecasting and concludes by emphasizing unified approach to demand forecasting.

  8. The Importance of Damage Potential for Avalanche Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keiler, M.; Fuchs, S.

    2003-04-01

    Risk is normally expressed as a function of recurrence probability of a process and its related damage potential. Various physical and empirical models describing the process aspect of the risk formula exist in the field of avalanche risk management while studies on damage potential are rare. Due to the changes of the socio-economic structures in mountain regions (urban sprawl, population growth, increased mobility and tourism) these studies are mandatory. This study focuses on different possibilities to obtain obligatory input parameters for multitemporal studies in settlement areas. A conceptual method that records the damage potential (probability of presence, evaluation of buildings) was developed and applied in Tyrol, Austria. A second approach, working with real-time insurance values for buildings and population growth, was tested in Grison, Switzerland. The different developments of the damage potential in the two alpine study areas are highlighted; their influences on the risk formula are discussed. The results of both studies show the advantages and disadvantages of each method, such as precision, amount of time needed and possibilities of implementing in a GIS. The results serve to improve risk determination and point out an unnoticed increase of damage potential and risk in apparently safe settlement areas.

  9. Laser annealing heals radiation damage in avalanche photodiodes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lim, Jin Gyu [University of Waterloo, Institute for Quantum Computing, Waterloo, ON (Canada); University of Waterloo, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Waterloo, ON (Canada); Anisimova, Elena; Higgins, Brendon L.; Bourgoin, Jean-Philippe [University of Waterloo, Institute for Quantum Computing, Waterloo, ON (Canada); University of Waterloo, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Waterloo, ON (Canada); Jennewein, Thomas [University of Waterloo, Institute for Quantum Computing, Waterloo, ON (Canada); University of Waterloo, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Waterloo, ON (Canada); Canadian Institute for Advanced Research, Quantum Information Science Program, Toronto, ON (Canada); Makarov, Vadim [University of Waterloo, Institute for Quantum Computing, Waterloo, ON (Canada); University of Waterloo, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Waterloo, ON (Canada); University of Waterloo, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Waterloo, ON (Canada)

    2017-12-15

    Avalanche photodiodes (APDs) are a practical option for space-based quantum communications requiring single-photon detection. However, radiation damage to APDs significantly increases their dark count rates and thus reduces their useful lifetimes in orbit. We show that high-power laser annealing of irradiated APDs of three different models (Excelitas C30902SH, Excelitas SLiK, and Laser Components SAP500S2) heals the radiation damage and several APDs are restored to typical pre-radiation dark count rates. Of nine samples we test, six APDs were thermally annealed in a previous experiment as another solution to mitigate the radiation damage. Laser annealing reduces the dark count rates further in all samples with the maximum dark count rate reduction factor varying between 5.3 and 758 when operating at -80 C. This indicates that laser annealing is a more effective method than thermal annealing. The illumination power to reach these reduction factors ranges from 0.8 to 1.6 W. Other photon detection characteristics, such as photon detection efficiency, timing jitter, and afterpulsing probability, fluctuate but the overall performance of quantum communications should be largely unaffected by these variations. These results herald a promising method to extend the lifetime of a quantum satellite equipped with APDs. (orig.)

  10. Novel micropixel avalanche photodiodes (MAPD) with super high pixel density

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anfimov, N.; Chirikov-Zorin, I.; Dovlatov, A.; Gavrishchuk, O.; Guskov, A.; Khovanskiy, N.; Krumshtein, Z.; Leitner, R.; Meshcheryakov, G.; Nagaytsev, A.; Olchevski, A.; Rezinko, T.; Sadovskiy, A.; Sadygov, Z.; Savin, I.; Tchalyshev, V.; Tyapkin, I.; Yarygin, G.; Zerrouk, F.

    2011-01-01

    In many detectors based on scintillators the photomultiplier tubes (PMTs) are used as photodetectors. At present photodiodes are finding wide application. Solid state photodetectors allow operation in strong magnetic fields that are often present in applications, e.g. some calorimeters operating near magnets, combined PET and MRT, etc. The photon detection efficiency (PDE) of photodiodes may reach values a few times higher than that of PMTs. Also, they are rigid, compact and have relatively low operating voltage. In the last few years Micropixel Avalanche PhotoDiodes (MAPD) have been developed and started to be used. The MAPD combines a lot of advantages of semiconductor photodetectors and has a high gain, which is close to that of the PMT. Yet, they have some disadvantages, and one of them is a limited dynamic range that corresponds to a total number of pixels. The novel deep microwell MAPD with high pixel density produced by the Zecotek Company partially avoids this disadvantage. In this paper characteristics of these photodetectors are presented in comparison with the PMT characteristics. The results refer to measurements of the gain, PDE, cross-talks, photon counting and applications: beam test results of two different 'Shashlyk' EM calorimeters for COMPASS (CERN) and NICA-MPD (JINR) with the MAPD readout and a possibility of using the MAPD in PET.

  11. Impact ionisation measurement and modelling of long wavelength avalanche photodiodes

    CERN Document Server

    Ng, J S

    2003-01-01

    Impact ionisation coefficients are measured in In sub 0 sub . sub 5 sub 3 Ga sub 0 sub . sub 4 sub 7 As and excess noise characteristics are measured in sub-micron ln sub 0 sub . sub 5 sub 2 Al sub 0 sub . sub 4 sub 8 As. Photomultiplication measurements performed on a series of In sub 0 sub . sub 5 sub 3 Ga sub 0 sub . sub 4 sub 7 As p-i-n diodes are reported. Taking careful account of factors which could give rise to erroneous results at low fields, ln sub 0 sub . sub 5 sub 3 Ga sub 0 sub . sub 4 sub 7 As ionisation coefficients are deduced at room temperature as a function of electric field. The results confirm the low field ionisation behaviour of alpha and the conventional field dependence of beta. Excess avalanche noise factors of In sub 0 sub . sub 5 sub 2 Al sub 0 sub . sub 4 sub 8 As p-i-n diodes, with i-region thicknesses ranging from 1.0 mu m to 0.1 mu m, are reported. The results indicate effective beta/alpha values lying between 0.15 and 0.23, comparable with or lower than the values reported in ...

  12. CMOS-based avalanche photodiodes for direct particle detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stapels, Christopher J.; Squillante, Michael R.; Lawrence, William G.; Augustine, Frank L.; Christian, James F.

    2007-01-01

    Active Pixel Sensors (APSs) in complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) technology are augmenting Charge-Coupled Devices (CCDs) as imaging devices and cameras in some demanding optical imaging applications. Radiation Monitoring Devices are investigating the APS concept for nuclear detection applications and has successfully migrated avalanche photodiode (APD) pixel fabrication to a CMOS environment, creating pixel detectors that can be operated with internal gain as proportional detectors. Amplification of the signal within the diode allows identification of events previously hidden within the readout noise of the electronics. Such devices can be used to read out a scintillation crystal, as in SPECT or PET, and as direct-conversion particle detectors. The charge produced by an ionizing particle in the epitaxial layer is collected by an electric field within the diode in each pixel. The monolithic integration of the readout circuitry with the pixel sensors represents an improved design compared to the current hybrid-detector technology that requires wire or bump bonding. In this work, we investigate designs for CMOS APD detector elements and compare these to typical values for large area devices. We characterize the achievable detector gain and the gain uniformity over the active area. The excess noise in two different pixel structures is compared. The CMOS APD performance is demonstrated by measuring the energy spectra of X-rays from 55 Fe

  13. Forecasting inbound tourists in Cambodia

    OpenAIRE

    Tanaka, Kiyoyasu

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting tourism demand is crucial for management decisions in the tourism sector. Estimating a vector autoregressive (VAR) model for monthly visitor arrivals disaggregated by three entry points in Cambodia for the years 2006–2015, I forecast the number of arrivals for years 2016 and 2017. The results show that the VAR model fits well with the data on visitor arrivals for each entry point. Ex post forecasting shows that the forecasts closely match the observed data for visitor arrivals, th...

  14. Forecasters' Objectives and Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marinovic, Iván; Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2013-01-01

    This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive lit- erature on analysts, we review the empirical evidenc...

  15. Housing Price Forecastability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Møller, Stig Vinther

    2016-01-01

    We examine U.S. housing price forecastability using principal component analysis (PCA), partial least squares (PLS), and sparse PLS (SPLS). We incorporate information from a large panel of 128 economic time series and show that macroeconomic fundamentals have strong predictive power for future mo...

  16. Hydrology and flow forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrijling, J.K.; Kwadijk, J.; Van Duivendijk, J.; Van Gelder, P.; Pang, H.; Rao, S.Q.; Wang, G.Q.; Huang, X.Q.

    2002-01-01

    We have studied and applied the statistic model (i.e. MMC) and hydrological models to Upper Yellow River. This report introduces the results and some conclusions from the model. The three models, MMC, MWBM and NAM, have be applied in the research area. The forecasted discharge by the three models

  17. Reference class forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent

    Underbudgettering og budgetoverskridelser forekommer i et flertal af større bygge- og anlægsprojekter. Problemet skyldes optimisme og/eller strategisk misinformation i budgetteringsprocessen. Reference class forecasting (RCF) er en prognosemetode, som er udviklet for at reducere eller eliminere...

  18. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bai

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  19. GEOS-5 seasonal forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borovikov, Anna; Cullather, Richard; Kovach, Robin; Marshak, Jelena; Vernieres, Guillaume; Vikhliaev, Yury; Zhao, Bin; Li, Zhao

    2017-09-01

    Ensembles of numerical forecasts based on perturbed initial conditions have long been used to improve estimates of both weather and climate forecasts. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5 AOGCM) Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecast System has been used routinely by the GMAO since 2008, the current version since 2012. A coupled reanalysis starting in 1980 provides the initial conditions for the 9-month experimental forecasts. Once a month, sea surface temperature from a suite of 11 ensemble forecasts is contributed to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) consensus project, which compares and distributes seasonal forecasts of ENSO events. Since June 2013, GEOS-5 forecasts of the Arctic sea-ice distribution were provided to the Sea-Ice Outlook project. The seasonal forecast output data includes surface fields, atmospheric and ocean fields, as well as sea ice thickness and area, and soil moisture variables. The current paper aims to document the characteristics of the GEOS-5 seasonal forecast system and to highlight forecast biases and skills of selected variables (sea surface temperature, air temperature at 2 m, precipitation and sea ice extent) to be used as a benchmark for the future GMAO seasonal forecast systems and to facilitate comparison with other global seasonal forecast systems.

  20. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Ma, Xuejiao; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-04-17

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  1. Analysis of the dynamic avalanche of carrier stored trench bipolar transistor (CSTBT) during clamped inductive turn-off transient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Peng; Fu, Guicui

    2017-03-01

    The dynamic avalanche has a huge impact on the switching robustness of carrier stored trench bipolar transistor (CSTBT). The purpose of this work is to investigate the CSTBT's dynamic avalanche mechanism during clamped inductive turn-off transient. At first, with a Mitsubishi 600 V/150 A CSTBT and a Infineon 600 V/200 A field stop insulated gate bipolar transistor (FS-IGBT) utilized, the clamped inductive turn-off characteristics are obtained by double pulse test. The unclamped inductive switching (UIS) test is also utilized to identify the CSTBT's clamping voltage under dynamic avalanche condition. After the test data analysis, it is found that the CSTBT's dynamic avalanche is abnormal and can be triggered under much looser condition than the conventional buffer layer IGBT. The comparison between the FS-IGBT and CSTBT's experimental results implies that the CSTBT's abnormal dynamic avalanche phenomenon may be induced by the carrier storage (CS) layer. Based on the semiconductor physics, the electric field distribution and dynamic avalanche generation in the depletion region are analyzed. The analysis confirms that the CS layer is the root cause of the CSTBT's abnormal dynamic avalanche mechanism. Moreover, the CSTBT's negative gate capacitance effect is also investigated to clarify the underlying mechanism of the gate voltage bump observed in the test. In the end, the mixed-mode numerical simulation is utilized to reproduce the CSTBT's dynamic avalanche behavior. The simulation results validate the proposed dynamic avalanche mechanisms.

  2. Discrimination of hot versus cold avalanche deposits: Implications for hazard assessment at Mount Meager, B.C.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. L. Stewart

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The surficial deposits surrounding the Mount Meager volcanic complex include numerous avalanche deposits. These deposits share many attributes: (a they are nearly monolithologic and comprise mainly intermediate volcanic rock clasts, (b they lack internal structure, and (c they are very poorly sorted. Despite these similarities, the avalanche deposits represent two distinct processes. Mass wasting of the Mount Meager volcanic edifice has produced cold rock avalanche deposits, whereas gravitational collapse of active lava domes and flows has produced hot block and ash avalanche deposits. The ability to discriminate between these "hot" and "cold" avalanche deposits is a critical component in the assessment of hazards in volcanic terranes. Hot block and ash avalanche deposits can be distinguished by the presence of radially-oriented joints, breadcrust textures, and incipient welding, which are features indicative of high emplacement temperatures. Conversely, rock avalanche deposits resulting from mass wasting events may be distinguished by the presence of clasts that preserve pre-depositional weathering and jointing surfaces. Volcanic avalanches are mechanically similar to rock avalanches but pose a greater hazard due to high temperatures, increased fluidization from degassing and the potential to decouple highly mobile elutriated ash clouds. The increasing use of hazardous regions such as the Lillooet River valley requires more reliable risk assessment in order to minimize losses from future hazardous events.

  3. Load forecasting for supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Aalborg Nielsen, Henrik

    This report presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. The load for refrigeration is the sum of all cabinets in the supermarket, both low and medium temperature cabinets, and spans a period of one year. As input to the forecasting models the ambient temperature observed near the supermarket together with weather forecasts are used. Every hour...... the hourly load for refrigeration for the following 42 hours is forecasted. The forecast models are adaptive linear time-series models which are fitted with a computationally efficient recursive least squares scheme. The dynamic relations between the inputs and the load is modeled by simple transfer...

  4. Nonlinear response and avalanche behavior in metallic glasses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riechers, B.; Samwer, K.

    2017-08-01

    The response to different stress amplitudes at temperatures below the glass transition temperature is analyzed by mechanical oscillatory excitation of Pd40Ni40P20 metallic glass samples in single cantilever bending geometry. While low amplitude oscillatory excitations are commonly used in mechanical spectroscopy to probe the relaxation spectrum, in this work the response to comparably high amplitudes is investigated. The strain response of the material is well below the critical yield stress even for highest stress amplitudes, implying the expectation of a linear relation between stress and strain according to Hooke's Law. However, a deviation from the linear behavior is evident, which is analyzed in terms of temperature dependence and influence of the applied stress amplitude by two different approaches of evaluation. The nonlinear approach is based on a nonlinear expansion of the stress-strain-relation, assuming an intrinsic nonlinear character of the shear or elastic modulus. The degree of nonlinearity is extracted by a period-by-period Fourier-analysis and connected to nonlinear coefficients, describing the intensity of nonlinearity at the fundamental and higher harmonic frequencies. The characteristic timescale to adapt to a significant change in stress amplitude in terms of a recovery timescale to a steady state value is connected to the structural relaxation time of the material, suggesting a connection between the observed nonlinearity and primary relaxation processes. The second approach of evaluation is termed the incremental analysis and relates the observed response behavior to avalanches, which occur due to the activation and correlation of local microstructural rearrangements. These rearrangements are connected with shear transformation zones and correspond to localized plastic events, which are superimposed on the linear response behavior of the material.

  5. Layer number dependence of flux avalanches in superconducting shifted strip array

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mine, A.; Tsuchiya, Y.; Miyano, S.; Pyon, S.; Tamegai, T.; Nagasawa, S.; Hidaka, M.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We have fabricated superconducting shifted strip arrays (SSAs) up to 4 layers. • Flux penetrations into SSAs are observed by using magneto-optical imaging. • Linear flux avalanches are observed in a wider range of overlap in the 4-layer SSAs than in the 2- or 3-layer SSAs. - Abstract: We have fabricated multi-layer superconducting shifted strip arrays (SSAs) of Nb up to 4 layers and systematically studied the vortex penetrations into these structures. We observed the vortex penetration as a function of the number of layers and the ratio of overlap between neighboring layers by using magneto-optical (MO) imaging. In the case of 2- and 3-layer SSAs, spot-like avalanches occur when the overlap is small, while linear avalanches occur when the overlap is large, consistent with our previous reports. In the 4-layer SSAs, the smallest limit of the overlap between the neighboring layers for the linear avalanche is lower. Flux penetrations parallel to the strip which were observed in the 3-layer SSA were also observed in the 4-layer SSAs with smaller ratio of overlap. Larger demagnetization effects in the middle two layers in 4-layer SSA help to make avalanches larger and more extended.

  6. Methodical bases of geodemographic forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Катерина Сегіда

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with methodological features of the forecast of population size and composition. The essence and features of probabilistic demographic forecasting, methods, a component and dynamic ranks are considered; requirements to initial indicators for each type of the forecast are provided. It is noted that geo-demographic forecast is an important component of regional geo-demographic characteristic. Features of the demographic forecast development by component method (recursors of age are given, basic formulae of calculation, including the equation of demographic balance, a formula recursors taking into account gender and age indicators, survival coefficient are presented. The basic methodical principles of the demographic forecast are given by an extrapolation method (dynamic ranks, calculation features by means of the generalized indicators, such as extrapolation on the basis of indicators of an average pure gain, average growth rate and average rate of a gain are presented. To develop population forecast, the method of retrospective extrapolation (for the short-term forecast and a component method (for the mid-term forecast are mostly used. The example of such development by component method for gender and age structure of the population of Kharkiv region with step-by-step explanation of calculation is provided. The example of Kharkiv region’s population forecast development is provided by the method of dynamic ranks. Having carried out calculations of the main forecast indicators by administrative units, it is possible to determine features of further regional demographic development, to reveal internal territorial distinctions in demographic development. Application of separate forecasting methods allows to develop the forecast for certain indicators, however essential a variety, nonlinearity and not stationarity of the processes constituting demographic development forces to look +for new approaches and

  7. Forecasting Turbine Icing Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we present a method for forecasting icing events. The method is validated at two European wind farms in with known icing events. The icing model used was developed using current ice accretion methods, and newly developed ablation algorithms. The model is driven by inputs from the WRF...... mesoscale model, allowing for both climatological estimates of icing and short term icing forecasts. The current model was able to detect periods of icing reasonably well at the warmer site. However at the cold climate site, the model was not able to remove ice quickly enough leading to large ice...... accumulations, which have not been seen in observations. In addition to the model evaluation we were able to investigate the potential occurrence of ice induced power loss at two wind parks in Europe using observed data. We found that the potential loss during an icing event is large even when the turbine...

  8. Forecasting Infectious Disease Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaman, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    Dynamic models of infectious disease systems abound and are used to study the epidemiological characteristics of disease outbreaks, the ecological mechanisms affecting transmission, and the suitability of various control and intervention strategies. The dynamics of disease transmission are non-linear and consequently difficult to forecast. Here, we describe combined model-inference frameworks developed for the prediction of infectious diseases. We show that accurate and reliable predictions of seasonal influenza outbreaks can be made using a mathematical model representing population-level influenza transmission dynamics that has been recursively optimized using ensemble data assimilation techniques and real-time estimates of influenza incidence. Operational real-time forecasts of influenza and other infectious diseases have been and are currently being generated.

  9. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Uranium price forecasting methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuller, D.M.

    1994-01-01

    This article reviews a number of forecasting methods that have been applied to uranium prices and compares their relative strengths and weaknesses. The methods reviewed are: (1) judgemental methods, (2) technical analysis, (3) time-series methods, (4) fundamental analysis, and (5) econometric methods. Historically, none of these methods has performed very well, but a well-thought-out model is still useful as a basis from which to adjust to new circumstances and try again

  11. Statistical methods for forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Abraham, Bovas

    2009-01-01

    The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists."This book, it must be said, lives up to the words on its advertising cover: ''Bridging the gap between introductory, descriptive approaches and highly advanced theoretical treatises, it provides a practical, intermediate level discussion of a variety of forecasting tools, and explains how they relate to one another, both in theory and practice.'' It does just that!"-Journal of the Royal Statistical Society"A well-written work that deals with statistical methods and models that can be used to produce short-term forecasts, this book has wide-ranging applications. It could be used in the context of a study of regression, forecasting, and time series ...

  12. PyForecastTools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-09-22

    The PyForecastTools package provides Python routines for calculating metrics for model validation, forecast verification and model comparison. For continuous predictands the package provides functions for calculating bias (mean error, mean percentage error, median log accuracy, symmetric signed bias), and for calculating accuracy (mean squared error, mean absolute error, mean absolute scaled error, normalized RMSE, median symmetric accuracy). Convenience routines to calculate the component parts (e.g. forecast error, scaled error) of each metric are also provided. To compare models the package provides: generic skill score; percent better. Robust measures of scale including median absolute deviation, robust standard deviation, robust coefficient of variation and the Sn estimator are all provided by the package. Finally, the package implements Python classes for NxN contingency tables. In the case of a multi-class prediction, accuracy and skill metrics such as proportion correct and the Heidke and Peirce skill scores are provided as object methods. The special case of a 2x2 contingency table inherits from the NxN class and provides many additional metrics for binary classification: probability of detection, probability of false detection, false alarm ration, threat score, equitable threat score, bias. Confidence intervals for many of these quantities can be calculated using either the Wald method or Agresti-Coull intervals.

  13. Evolving forecasting classifications and applications in health forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soyiri IN

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Ireneous N Soyiri1,2, Daniel D Reidpath11Global Public Health, JCSMHS, MONASH University, Selangor, Malaysia; 2School of Public Health, University of Ghana, Legon, Accra, GhanaAbstract: Health forecasting forewarns the health community about future health situations and disease episodes so that health systems can better allocate resources and manage demand. The tools used for developing and measuring the accuracy and validity of health forecasts commonly are not defined although they are usually adapted forms of statistical procedures. This review identifies previous typologies used in classifying the forecasting methods commonly used in forecasting health conditions or situations. It then discusses the strengths and weaknesses of these methods and presents the choices available for measuring the accuracy of health-forecasting models, including a note on the discrepancies in the modes of validation.Keywords: health forecast, health data, electronic health records, accuracy, cross validation, method, strengths and limitations

  14. Note: An avalanche transistor-based nanosecond pulse generator with 25 MHz repetition rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beev, Nikolai; Keller, Jonas; Mehlstäubler, Tanja E

    2017-12-01

    We have developed an avalanche transistor-based pulse generator for driving the photocathode of an image intensifier, which comprises a mainly capacitive load on the order of 100 pF. The circuit produces flat-top pulses with a rise time of 2 ns, a FWHM of 10 ns, and an amplitude of tens of V at a high repetition rate in the range of tens of MHz. The generator is built of identical avalanche transistor sections connected in parallel and triggered in a sequence, synchronized to a reference rf signal. The described circuit and mode of operation overcome the power dissipation limit of avalanche transistor generators and enable a significant increase of pulse repetition rates. Our approach is naturally suited for synchronized imaging applications at low light levels.

  15. Note: An avalanche transistor-based nanosecond pulse generator with 25 MHz repetition rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beev, Nikolai; Keller, Jonas; Mehlstäubler, Tanja E.

    2017-12-01

    We have developed an avalanche transistor-based pulse generator for driving the photocathode of an image intensifier, which comprises a mainly capacitive load on the order of 100 pF. The circuit produces flat-top pulses with a rise time of 2 ns, a FWHM of 10 ns, and an amplitude of tens of V at a high repetition rate in the range of tens of MHz. The generator is built of identical avalanche transistor sections connected in parallel and triggered in a sequence, synchronized to a reference rf signal. The described circuit and mode of operation overcome the power dissipation limit of avalanche transistor generators and enable a significant increase of pulse repetition rates. Our approach is naturally suited for synchronized imaging applications at low light levels.

  16. Creation of the snow avalanche susceptibility map of the Krkonoše Mountains using GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Suk

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with the development of the snow avalanche susceptibility map in the Czech part of the Krkonoše Mountains using the free Geographic Information System (GIS GRASS. The area susceptibility map consists of two components: the morphological risk map, which is derived from the digital terrain model (DTM and describes the slope steepness, aspect and curvature of the slope, and the protecting vegetation influence map, which is based on supervised image classification (spectrozonal aerial photos and takes into consideration the importance of vegetation cover. The final map also includes starting zones calculated on the basis of significant changes in slope steepness and approximate shapes of avalanche paths based on these zones. In the map development, the layer of measured paths of avalanche cadastre in the Czech part of the Krkonoše Mountains was used, partly to gain the morphological characteristics of starting zones and partly to check the quality of the map.

  17. Scaling behavior of individual barkhausen avalanches in nucleation-mediated magnetization reversal processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Im, Mi-Young; Fischer, Peter; Kim, Dong-Hyun; Shin, Sung-Chul

    2009-11-09

    We report the scaling behavior of Barkhausen avalanches along the hysteresis loop of a CoCrPt alloy film with perpendicular magnetic anisotropy for every field step of 200 Oe. Individual Barkhausen avalanches are directly observed via high-resolution soft X-ray microscopy with a spatial resolution of 15 nm. The Barkhausen avalanches exhibit a power-law scaling behavior, where the scaling exponent of the power-law distribution drastically changes from 1 {+-} 0.04 to 1.47 {+-} 0.03 as the applied magnetic field approaches the coercivity of the CoCrPt film. We infer that this is due to the coupling of adjacent domains.

  18. Avalanches and Dimensional Reduction Breakdown in the Critical Behavior of Disordered Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarjus, Gilles; Baczyk, Maxime; Tissier, Matthieu

    2013-03-01

    We investigate the connection between a formal property of the critical behavior of several disordered systems, known as “dimensional reduction,” and the presence in these systems at zero temperature of collective events known as “avalanches.” Avalanches generically produce nonanalyticities in the functional dependence of the cumulants of the renormalized disorder. We show that this leads to a breakdown of the dimensional reduction predictions if and only if the fractal dimension characterizing the scaling properties of the avalanches is exactly equal to the difference between the dimension of space and the scaling dimension of the primary field. This is proven by combining scaling theory and the functional renormalization group. We therefore clarify the puzzle of why dimensional reduction remains valid in random field systems above a nontrivial dimension (but fails below), always applies to the statistics of branched polymer, and is always wrong in elastic models of interfaces in a random environment.

  19. Possible deviations from Griffith’s criterion in shallow slabs, and consequences on slab avalanche release

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Louchet

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Possible reasons for deviations from Griffith’s criterion in slab avalanche triggerings are examined. In the case of a major basal crack, we show (i that the usual form of Griffith’s criterion is valid if elastic energy is stored in a shallow and hard slab only, and (ii that rapid healing of broken ice bonds may lead to shear toughnesses larger than expected from tensile toughness experiments. In the case of avalanches resulting from failure of multi-cracked weak layers, where a simple Griffith’s criterion cannot be applied, frequency/size plots obtained from discrete elements and cellular automata simulations are shown to obey scale invariant power law distributions. These findings are confirmed by both frequency/acoustic emission duration and frequency/size plots obtained from field data, suggesting that avalanche triggerings may be described using the formalism of critical phenomena.

  20. Plasmonic field confinement for separate absorption-multiplication in InGaAs nanopillar avalanche photodiodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Alan C; Senanayake, Pradeep; Hung, Chung-Hong; El-Howayek, Georges; Rajagopal, Abhejit; Currie, Marc; Hayat, Majeed M; Huffaker, Diana L

    2015-12-02

    Avalanche photodiodes (APDs) are essential components in quantum key distribution systems and active imaging systems requiring both ultrafast response time to measure photon time of flight and high gain to detect low photon flux. The internal gain of an APD can improve system signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Excess noise is typically kept low through the selection of material with intrinsically low excess noise, using separate-absorption-multiplication (SAM) heterostructures, or taking advantage of the dead-space effect using thin multiplication regions. In this work we demonstrate the first measurement of excess noise and gain-bandwidth product in III-V nanopillars exhibiting substantially lower excess noise factors compared to bulk and gain-bandwidth products greater than 200 GHz. The nanopillar optical antenna avalanche detector (NOAAD) architecture is utilized for spatially separating the absorption region from the avalanche region via the NOA resulting in single carrier injection without the use of a traditional SAM heterostructure.

  1. Chaos and Correlated Avalanches in Excitatory Neural Networks with Synaptic Plasticity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittorino, Fabrizio; Ibáñez-Berganza, Miguel; di Volo, Matteo; Vezzani, Alessandro; Burioni, Raffaella

    2017-03-01

    A collective chaotic phase with power law scaling of activity events is observed in a disordered mean field network of purely excitatory leaky integrate-and-fire neurons with short-term synaptic plasticity. The dynamical phase diagram exhibits two transitions from quasisynchronous and asynchronous regimes to the nontrivial, collective, bursty regime with avalanches. In the homogeneous case without disorder, the system synchronizes and the bursty behavior is reflected into a period doubling transition to chaos for a two dimensional discrete map. Numerical simulations show that the bursty chaotic phase with avalanches exhibits a spontaneous emergence of persistent time correlations and enhanced Kolmogorov complexity. Our analysis reveals a mechanism for the generation of irregular avalanches that emerges from the combination of disorder and deterministic underlying chaotic dynamics.

  2. Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement

    OpenAIRE

    McAllister, Patrick; Newell, G.; Matysiak, George

    2005-01-01

    Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The re...

  3. Error diagrams and temporal correlations in a fracture model with characteristic and power-law distributed avalanches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moreno, Y.; Vázquez-Prada, M.; Pacheco, A.F.

    2003-01-01

    to the heterogeneity of the system. In one regime, a characteristic event is observed while for the second regime a power-law spectrum of avalanches is obtained reminiscent of self-organized criticality. We find that both regimes are different when predicting large avalanches and that, in the second regime...

  4. Self-organized criticality induced by quenched disorder: Experiments on flux avalanches in NbHx films

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Welling, M.S.; Aegerter, C.M.; Wijngaarden, R.J.

    2005-01-01

    We present an experimental study of the influence of quenched disorder on the distribution of flux avalanches in type-II superconductors. In the presence of much quenched disorder, the avalanche sizes are powerlaw distributed and show finite-size scaling, as expected from self-organized criticality

  5. Measurement and modeling of microlenses fabricated on single-photon avalanche diode arrays for fill factor recovery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mata Pavia, J.; Wolf, M.; Charbon, E.

    2014-01-01

    Single-photon avalanche diode (SPAD) imagers typically have a relatively low fil factor, i.e. a low proportion of the pixel’s surface is light sensitive, due to in-pixel circuitry. We present a microlens array fabricated on a 128x128 single-photon avalanche diode (SPAD) imager to enhance its

  6. Avalanche dynamics, surface roughening, and self-organized criticality: Experiments on a three-dimensional pile of rice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aegerter, C.M.; Gunther, R.; Wijngaarden, R.J.

    2003-01-01

    The results of both the avalanche and the roughening behavior of an experimental self-organized criticality (SOC) system are presented. In addition, simple arguments for universal scaling relations, derived by Paczuski et al. on general grounds, connecting the avalanche and the roughening behavior

  7. Modelling wet snow avalanche runout to assess road safety at a high-altitude mine in the central Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valero, Cesar Vera; Wever, Nander; Bühler, Yves; Stoffel, Lukas; Margreth, Stefan; Bartelt, Perry

    2016-11-01

    Mining activities in cold regions are vulnerable to snow avalanches. Unlike operational facilities, which can be constructed in secure locations outside the reach of avalanches, access roads are often susceptible to being cut, leading to mine closures and significant financial losses. In this paper we discuss the application of avalanche runout modelling to predict the operational risk to mining roads, a long-standing problem for mines in high-altitude, snowy regions. We study the 35 km long road located in the "Cajón del rio Blanco" valley in the central Andes, which is operated by the Codelco Andina copper mine. In winter and early spring, this road is threatened by over 100 avalanche paths. If the release and snow cover conditions can be accurately specified, we find that avalanche dynamics modelling is able to represent runout, and safe traffic zones can be identified. We apply a detailed, physics-based snow cover model to calculate snow temperature, density and moisture content in three-dimensional terrain. This information is used to determine the initial and boundary conditions of the avalanche dynamics model. Of particular importance is the assessment of the current snow conditions along the avalanche tracks, which define the mass and thermal energy entrainment rates and therefore the possibility of avalanche growth and long runout distances.

  8. Smartphone applications for communicating avalanche risk information : a study on how they are developed and evaluated by their providers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Charriere, M.K.M.; Bogaard, T.A.

    2016-01-01

    Every year, people are victims of avalanches. It is commonly assumed that one way to decrease those losses is to inform about danger levels. This paper presents a study on current practices in the development and evaluation of smartphones applications that are dedicated to avalanche risk

  9. A mineralogical and granulometric study of Cayambe volcano debris avalanche deposit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detienne, M.; Delmelle, P.; Guevara, A.; Samaniego, P.; Bustillos, J.; Sonnet, P.; Opfergelt, S.

    2013-12-01

    Volcano flank/sector collapse represents one of the most catastrophic volcanic hazards. Various volcanic and non-volcanic processes are known to decrease the stability of a volcanic cone, eventually precipitating its gravitational failure. Among them, hydrothermal alteration of volcanic rocks leading to clay mineral formation is recognized as having a large negative impact on rock strength properties. Furthermore, the presence of hydrothermal clays in the collapsing mass influences the behavior of the associated volcanic debris avalanche. In particular, clay-containing debris avalanches seem to travel farther and spread more widely than avalanches of similar volume but which do not incorporate hydrothermally-altered materials. However, the relationship between hydrothermal alteration, flank collapse and debris avalanche behavior is not well understood. The objective of this study is to better determine the volume and composition of hydrothermal clay minerals in the poorly characterized debris avalanche deposit (DAD) of Cayambe composite volcano, located in a densely populated area ~70 km northeast of Quito, Ecuador. Cayambe DAD originated from a sector collapse, which occurred less than 200 ka ago. The DAD is 10-20 m thick and has an estimated total volume of ~0.85 Km3. The H/L ratio (where H is the vertical drop and L is the travel distance of the avalanche) for Cayambe DAD is ~0.095, suggesting a high mobility. In the medial-distal zone, at 9-20 km from its source, the DAD consists of an unstratified and unsorted matrix supporting millimetric to metric clasts. It has a matrix facies (i.e. rich in particles DAD behaved as a cohesive debris flow. Analysis of 13 matrix samples reveals a large variability in particle size distribution. This may reflect poor mixing of the collapsed material during transport. The clay fraction content in the matrix ranges from 15 to 30 wt.%, and does not show a relationship with the sample position in the DAD. Mineralogical

  10. Improved x-ray detection and particle identification with avalanche photodiodes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diepold, Marc, E-mail: marc.diepold@mpq.mpg.de; Franke, Beatrice; Götzfried, Johannes; Hänsch, Theodor W.; Krauth, Julian J.; Mulhauser, Françoise; Nebel, Tobias; Pohl, Randolf [Max Planck Institute of Quantum Optics, 85748 Garching (Germany); Fernandes, Luis M. P.; Amaro, Fernando D.; Gouvea, Andrea L.; Monteiro, Cristina M. B.; Santos, Joaquim M. F. dos [LIBPhys, Physics Department, Universidade de Coimbra, 3004-516 Coimbra (Portugal); Machado, Jorge [Laboratório de Instrumentação, Engenharia Biomédica e Física da Radiação (LIBPhys-UNL) e Departamento de Física da Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Monte da Caparica, 2892-516 Caparica (Portugal); Laboratoire Kastler Brossel, UPMC-Sorbonne Universités, CNRS, ENS-PSL Research University, Collège de France, 4 place Jussieu, case 74, 75005 Paris (France); Amaro, Pedro; Santos, José Paulo [Laboratório de Instrumentação, Engenharia Biomédica e Física da Radiação (LIBPhys-UNL) e Departamento de Física da Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Monte da Caparica, 2892-516 Caparica (Portugal); and others

    2015-05-15

    Avalanche photodiodes are commonly used as detectors for low energy x-rays. In this work, we report on a fitting technique used to account for different detector responses resulting from photoabsorption in the various avalanche photodiode layers. The use of this technique results in an improvement of the energy resolution at 8.2 keV by up to a factor of 2 and corrects the timing information by up to 25 ns to account for space dependent electron drift time. In addition, this waveform analysis is used for particle identification, e.g., to distinguish between x-rays and MeV electrons in our experiment.

  11. Diffusion correction to the Raether Meek criterion for the avalanche-to-streamer transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montijn, Carolynne; Ebert, Ute

    2006-07-01

    Space-charge dominated streamer discharges can emerge in free space from single electrons. We reinvestigate the Raether-Meek criterion and show that streamer emergence depends not only on ionization and attachment rates and gap length, but also on electron diffusion. Motivated by simulation results, we derive an explicit quantitative criterion for the avalanche-to-streamer transition both for pure non-attaching gases and for air, under the assumption that the avalanche emerges from a single free electron and evolves in a homogeneous field.

  12. A new crack propagation criterion for skier-triggered snow slab avalanches

    OpenAIRE

    Gaume Johan; Reuter Benjamin; van Herwijnen Alec; Schweizer Jürg

    2016-01-01

    Dry snow slab avalanches begin with a local failure in a weak snowpack layer buried below cohesive slab layers. If the size of the failed zone exceeds a critical length rapid crack propagation occurs possibly followed by slab release if the slope is steep enough. The probability to trigger a slab avalanche by a skier or a snowmobile is generally described by classical stability indices which do not account for crack propagation. In this study we propose a new model to evaluate the conditions ...

  13. Ultralow-noise readout circuit with an avalanche photodiode: toward a photon-number-resolving detector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsujino, Kenji; Akiba, Makoto; Sasaki, Masahide

    2007-03-01

    The charge-integration readout circuit was fabricated to achieve an ultralow-noise preamplifier for photoelectrons generated in an avalanche photodiode with linear mode operation at 77 K. To reduce the various kinds of noise, the capacitive transimpedance amplifier was used and consisted of low-capacitance circuit elements that were cooled with liquid nitrogen. As a result, the readout noise is equal to 3.0 electrons averaged for a period of 40 ms. We discuss the requirements for avalanche photodiodes to achieve photon-number-resolving detectors below this noise level.

  14. A multiple parallel-plate avalanche counter for fission-fragment detection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, C.Y., E-mail: wu24@llnl.gov [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 9455 (United States); Henderson, R.A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 9455 (United States); Haight, R.C.; Lee, H.Y.; Taddeucci, T.N. [Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, MN 87545 (United States); Bucher, B.; Chyzh, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 9455 (United States); Devlin, M.; Fotiades, N. [Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, MN 87545 (United States); Kwan, E. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 9455 (United States); National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory, East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States); O’Donnell, J.M.; Perdue, B.A.; Ullmann, J.L. [Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, MN 87545 (United States)

    2015-09-11

    A new low-mass multiple gas-filled parallel-plate avalanche counter for the fission-fragment detection has been developed to mark the fission occurrence in measurements of the prompt fission neutron energy spectrum as a function of incident neutron energy. It was used successfully for the neutron-induced fission of {sup 235}U and {sup 239}Pu with a total mass near 100 mg each and the spontaneous fission of {sup 252}Cf. Both the incident neutron energy and the prompt fission neutron energy are measured by using the time-of-flight method. The design and performance of this avalanche counter are described.

  15. Characterization of new hexagonal large area Geiger Avalanche Photodiodes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boccone, V.; Aguilar, J.A.; Della Volpe, D.; Christov, A.; Montaruli, T.; Rameez, M.; Basili, A.

    2013-06-01

    Photomultipliers (PMTs) are the standard detector for construction of the current generation of imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes (IACTs). Despite impressive improvements in QE and reliability in the last years, these devices suffer from the limitation of being unable to operate in the partially illuminated sky (during full or partial moon periods) as the excess light leads to a significant increase in the rate of ageing of the devices themselves and consequently limit the life of the camera. A viable alternative is the large area Geiger-mode avalanche photodiodes (G-APDs also known as Silicon Photomultipliers or SiPMs) that are commercially available from different producers in various types and dimensions. The sufficiency of the maturity of this technology for application to Cherenkov Astronomy has already been demonstrated by the FACT telescope. One of the camera designs under study for the 4 m Davies Cotton Telescope foresees the utilization of a large area G-APDs coupled to non imaging light concentrators. In collaboration with Hamamatsu and deriving from their current technology, we have designed a new hexagonal shaped large area G-APD HEX S12516 which when coupled to a Winston cone of 24 degrees cutting angle allows for a pixel angular resolution of 0.25 degrees for a f/D 1.4 telescope with a diameter of 4 m. The device, available in 2 different cell size configurations (50 μm and 100 μm), is divided into 4 different channels powered in common cathode mode. A temperature sensor was included for a better temperature evaluation in the characterization phase. The first 3 prototypes were fully characterized and the results are compared to the larger area devices commercially available such as the S10985-050C (2x2 array of 3x3 mm 2 G-APDs). The photo-detection efficiency is measured applying the Poisson statistics method using pulsed LED at 7 different wavelengths from 355 to 670 nm and for different bias over-voltages (V ov ). Optical crosstalk and

  16. Ensemble hydromoeteorological forecasting in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lucatero Villasenor, Diana

    of the main sources of uncertainty in hydrological forecasts. This is the reason why substantiated efforts to include information from Numerical Weather Predictors (NWP) or General Circulation Models (GCM) have been made over the last couple of decades. The present thesis expects to advance the field...... forecasts only about 15% and ET0 being the lowest at 15% for some months. The lowest skill of ET0 can be attributable to the combination of both T and incoming shortwave radiation (ISWR) bias from the GCM in addition to the added uncertainty for the model of the ET0 chosen (Makkink formula). Attempts...... steps. First, GCM-based streamflow forecasts exhibit biases that increase with lead time and, although these forecasts are sharper than the ESP forecasts, these biases lead to lower accuracy relative to ESP forecasts, especially at lead times larger than two months. Corrected GCM-based streamflow...

  17. Evaluation of Probabilistic Disease Forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Gareth; Burnett, Fiona J

    2017-10-01

    The statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts often involves calculation of metrics defined conditionally on disease status, such as sensitivity and specificity. However, for the purpose of disease management decision making, metrics defined conditionally on the result of the forecast-predictive values-are also important, although less frequently reported. In this context, the application of scoring rules in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts is discussed. An index of separation with application in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts, described in the clinical literature, is also considered and its relation to scoring rules illustrated. Scoring rules provide a principled basis for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts used in plant disease management. In particular, the decomposition of scoring rules into interpretable components is an advantageous feature of their application in the evaluation of disease forecasts.

  18. IEA Wind Task 36 Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giebel, Gregor; Cline, Joel; Frank, Helmut; Shaw, Will; Pinson, Pierre; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Kariniotakis, Georges; Sempreviva, Anna Maria; Draxl, Caroline

    2017-04-01

    Wind power forecasts have been used operatively for over 20 years. Despite this fact, there are still several possibilities to improve the forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The new International Energy Agency (IEA) Task on Wind Power Forecasting tries to organise international collaboration, among national weather centres with an interest and/or large projects on wind forecast improvements (NOAA, DWD, UK MetOffice, …) and operational forecaster and forecast users. The Task is divided in three work packages: Firstly, a collaboration on the improvement of the scientific basis for the wind predictions themselves. This includes numerical weather prediction model physics, but also widely distributed information on accessible datasets for verification. Secondly, we will be aiming at an international pre-standard (an IEA Recommended Practice) on benchmarking and comparing wind power forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts aiming at industry and forecasters alike. This WP will also organise benchmarks, in cooperation with the IEA Task WakeBench. Thirdly, we will be engaging end users aiming at dissemination of the best practice in the usage of wind power predictions, especially probabilistic ones. The Operating Agent is Gregor Giebel of DTU, Co-Operating Agent is Joel Cline of the US Department of Energy. Collaboration in the task is solicited from everyone interested in the forecasting business. We will collaborate with IEA Task 31 Wakebench, which developed the Windbench benchmarking platform, which this task will use for forecasting benchmarks. The task runs for three years, 2016-2018. Main deliverables are an up-to-date list of current projects and main project results, including datasets which can be used by researchers around the world to improve their own models, an IEA Recommended Practice on performance evaluation of probabilistic forecasts, a position paper regarding the use of probabilistic forecasts

  19. Earthquake forecasting and its verification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Holliday

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months. However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on a pattern informatics (PI method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output, which is based on an association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes, is a map of areas in a seismogenic region ('hotspots'' where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. Because a sharp decision threshold is used, these forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative (or receiver operating characteristic (ROC diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI forecast based on the hypothesis that future large earthquakes will occur where most smaller earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances.

  20. Medium-range fire weather forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.O. Roads; K. Ueyoshi; S.C. Chen; J. Alpert; F. Fujioka

    1991-01-01

    The forecast skill of theNational Meteorological Center's medium range forecast (MRF) numerical forecasts of fire weather variables is assessed for the period June 1,1988 to May 31,1990. Near-surface virtual temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and a derived fire weather index (FWI) are forecast well by the MRF model. However, forecast relative humidity has...

  1. Forecasting freight flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    model. The analysis uses a structural relationship to explain the structure of the exchange of the goods—a relationship that can be used in the year of forecast. This article also provides a new methodology for converting monetary aggregates into quantity aggregates. The resulting commodity growth rates....... This article models long-term dynamic physical trade flows and estimates a dynamic panel data model for foreign trade for the EU15 and two countries from the EFTA (European Free Trade Association) 1967–2002. The analysis suggests that a dynamic three-way-effects gravity equation is the best-fitted econometric...

  2. Utility usage forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosking, Jonathan R. M.; Natarajan, Ramesh

    2017-08-22

    The computer creates a utility demand forecast model for weather parameters by receiving a plurality of utility parameter values, wherein each received utility parameter value corresponds to a weather parameter value. Determining that a range of weather parameter values lacks a sufficient amount of corresponding received utility parameter values. Determining one or more utility parameter values that corresponds to the range of weather parameter values. Creating a model which correlates the received and the determined utility parameter values with the corresponding weather parameters values.

  3. Forecasting and modelling ice layer formation on the snowpack due to freezing precipitations in the Pyrenees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quéno, Louis; Vionnet, Vincent; Cabot, Frédéric; Vrécourt, Dominique; Dombrowski-Etchevers, Ingrid

    2017-04-01

    In the Pyrenees, freezing precipitations in altitude occur at least once per winter, leading to the formation of a pure ice layer on the surface of the snowpack. It may lead to accidents and fatalities among mountaineers and skiers, with sometimes a higher human toll than avalanches. Such events are not predicted by the current operational systems for snow and avalanche hazard forecasting. A crowd-sourced database of surface ice layer occurrences is first built up, using reports from Internet mountaineering and ski-touring communities, to mitigate the lack of observations from conventional observation networks. A simple diagnostic of freezing precipitation is then developed, based on the cloud water content and screen temperature forecast by the Numerical Weather Prediction model AROME, operating at 2.5-km resolution. The performance of this diagnostic is assessed for the event of 5-6 January 2012, with a good representation of altitudinal and spatial distributions of the ice layer. An evaluation of the diagnostic for major events over five winters gives good skills of detection compared to the occurrences reported in the observation database. A new modelling of ice formation on the surface of the snowpack due to impinging supercooled water is added to the detailed snowpack model Crocus. It is combined to the atmospheric diagnostic of freezing precipitations and resulting snowpack simulations over a winter season capture well the formation of the main ice layers. Their influence on the snowpack stratigraphy is also realistically simulated. These simple methods enable to forecast the occurrence of surface ice layer formations with good confidence and to simulate their evolution within the snowpack, even if an accurate estimation of freezing precipitation amounts remains the main challenge.

  4. On the Influence of Weather Forecast Errors in Short-Term Load Forecasting Models

    OpenAIRE

    Fay, D.; Ringwood, John; Condon, M.

    2004-01-01

    Weather information is an important factor in load forecasting models. This weather information usually takes the form of actual weather readings. However, online operation of load forecasting models requires the use of weather forecasts, with associated weather forecast errors. A technique is proposed to model weather forecast errors to reflect current accuracy. A load forecasting model is then proposed which combines the forecasts of several load forecasting models. This approach allows the...

  5. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyin Ye

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

  6. Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

    1993-01-01

    The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

  7. Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2016-01-01

    The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged fundamenta...... competition with four tracks on load, price, wind and solar forecasting, which attracted 581 participants from 61 countries. We conclude the paper with 12 predictions for the next decade of energy forecasting.......The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged...... fundamentally. In this competitive and dynamic environment, many decision-making processes rely on probabilistic forecasts to quantify the uncertain future. Although most of the papers in the energy forecasting literature focus on point or singlevalued forecasts, the research interest in probabilistic energy...

  8. Issues in Forecasting CMEs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzo, V. J.

    2017-12-01

    I will present my view of the current status of space weather forecasting abilities related to CMEs. This talk will address the large-scale aspects, but specifically not energetic particle phenomena. A key point is that all models, whether sophisticated numerical contraptions or quasi-empirical ones, are only as good as the data you feed them. Hence the emphasis will be on observations and analysis methods. First I will review where we stand with regard to the near-Sun quantitative data needed to drive any model, no matter how complex or simple-minded, and I will discuss technological roadblocks that suggest it may be some time before we see any meaningful improvements beyond what we have today. Then I cover issues related to characterizing CME propagation out through the corona and into interplanetary space, as well as to observational limitations in the vicinity of 1 AU. Since none of these observational constraints are likely to be resolved anytime soon, the real challenge is to make more informed use of what is available. Thus, this talk will focus on how we may identify and pursue the most profitable approaches, for both forecast and research applications. The discussion will highlight a number of promising leads, including those related to inclusion of solar backside information, joint magnetograph observations from L5 and Earth, how to use (not just run) ensembles, more rational use of HI observations, and suggestions for using cube-sats for deep space observations of CMEs and MCs.

  9. Global warming forecasts unreliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baker, A.B.

    1993-01-01

    This paper reports the opinions of a series of experts who have recently commented on the reliability of predictions of global warning in relation to observed and forecasted increases in carbon dioxide emissions. One of the more difficult to explain observations, evidenced through the analysis of past meteorological data, was the rapid increase in global temperature that took place during the period preceding 1940 and which was followed by a gradual decrease, during a thirty year period of heightened industrialization and consumption of fossil fuels, up to 1970 when global temperatures began again to rise rapidly. Variations in solar activity was suggested to explain this apparently anomalous trend in global temperatures. This question as to the existence of a strict correlation between global warming and rises in carbon dioxide emissions, as well as, forecasted increases in concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide due to the expected population growth in China are putting a strain on attempts by OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) environmental policy makers to gain support for energy tax proposals

  10. The 2002 rock/ice avalanche at Kolka/Karmadon, Russian Caucasus: assessment of extraordinary avalanche formation and mobility, and application of QuickBird satellite imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, C.; Zgraggen-Oswald, S.; Haeberli, W.; Kääb, A.; Polkvoj, A.; Galushkin, I.; Evans, S. G.

    2005-01-01

    A massive rock/ice avalanche of about 100x106m3 volume took place on the northern slope of the Kazbek massif, North Ossetia, Russian Caucasus, on 20 September 2002. The avalanche started as a slope failure, that almost completely entrained Kolka glacier, traveled down the Genaldon valley for 20km, was stopped at the entrance of the Karmadon gorge, and was finally succeeded by a distal mudflow which continued for another 15km. The event caused the death of ca. 140 people and massive destruction. Several aspects of the event are extraordinary, i.e. the large ice volume involved, the extreme initial acceleration, the high flow velocity, the long travel distance and particularly the erosion of a valley-type glacier, a process not known so far. The analysis of these aspects is essential for process understanding and worldwide glacial hazard assessments. This study is therefore concerned with the analysis of processes and the evaluation of the most likely interpretations. The analysis is based on QuickBird satellite images, field observations, and ice-, flow- and thermo-mechanical considerations. QuickBird is currently the best available satellite sensor in terms of ground resolution (0.6 m) and opens new perspectives for assessment of natural hazards. Evaluation of the potential of QuickBird images for assessment of high-mountain hazards shows the feasibility for detailed avalanche mapping and analysis of flow dynamics, far beyond the capabilities of conventional satellite remote sensing. It is shown that the avalanche was characterized by two different flows. The first one was comparable to a hyperconcentrated flow and was immediately followed by a flow with a much lower concentration of water involving massive volumes of ice. The high mobility of the avalanche is likely related to fluidization effects at the base of the moving ice/debris mass with high pore pressures and a continuous supply of water due to frictional melting of ice. The paper concludes with

  11. The 2002 rock/ice avalanche at Kolka/Karmadon, Russian Caucasus: assessment of extraordinary avalanche formation and mobility, and application of QuickBird satellite imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Huggel

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A massive rock/ice avalanche of about 100x106m3 volume took place on the northern slope of the Kazbek massif, North Ossetia, Russian Caucasus, on 20 September 2002. The avalanche started as a slope failure, that almost completely entrained Kolka glacier, traveled down the Genaldon valley for 20km, was stopped at the entrance of the Karmadon gorge, and was finally succeeded by a distal mudflow which continued for another 15km. The event caused the death of ca. 140 people and massive destruction. Several aspects of the event are extraordinary, i.e. the large ice volume involved, the extreme initial acceleration, the high flow velocity, the long travel distance and particularly the erosion of a valley-type glacier, a process not known so far. The analysis of these aspects is essential for process understanding and worldwide glacial hazard assessments. This study is therefore concerned with the analysis of processes and the evaluation of the most likely interpretations. The analysis is based on QuickBird satellite images, field observations, and ice-, flow- and thermo-mechanical considerations. QuickBird is currently the best available satellite sensor in terms of ground resolution (0.6 m and opens new perspectives for assessment of natural hazards. Evaluation of the potential of QuickBird images for assessment of high-mountain hazards shows the feasibility for detailed avalanche mapping and analysis of flow dynamics, far beyond the capabilities of conventional satellite remote sensing. It is shown that the avalanche was characterized by two different flows. The first one was comparable to a hyperconcentrated flow and was immediately followed by a flow with a much lower concentration of water involving massive volumes of ice. The high mobility of the avalanche is likely related to fluidization effects at the base of the moving ice/debris mass with high pore pressures and a continuous supply of water due to frictional melting of ice. The paper

  12. Cosmic Ray Measurements by Scintillators with Metal Resistor Semiconductor Avalanche Photo Diodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanco, Francesco; La Rocca, Paola; Riggi, Francesco; Akindinov, Alexandre; Mal'kevich, Dmitry

    2008-01-01

    An educational set-up for cosmic ray physics experiments is described. The detector is based on scintillator tiles with a readout through metal resistor semiconductor (MRS) avalanche photo diode (APD) arrays. Typical measurements of the cosmic angular distribution at sea level and a study of the East-West asymmetry obtained by such a device are…

  13. Automatic scanning of Cerenkov light photograms from a multistep avalanche chamber using a television digitizer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vascon, M.; Zanella, G.

    1980-01-01

    A television digitizer and its application to automatic scanning of Cerenkov imaging using the multistep avalanche chamber in front of optical spark chamber are described. The results are of interest in the adoption of the automatic scanning of photographic plates of these events or for the on-line application of the television digitizer itself. (orig.)

  14. Avalanches and generalized memory associativity in a network model for conscious and unconscious mental functioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqui, Maheen; Wedemann, Roseli S.; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft

    2018-01-01

    We explore statistical characteristics of avalanches associated with the dynamics of a complex-network model, where two modules corresponding to sensorial and symbolic memories interact, representing unconscious and conscious mental processes. The model illustrates Freud's ideas regarding the neuroses and that consciousness is related with symbolic and linguistic memory activity in the brain. It incorporates the Stariolo-Tsallis generalization of the Boltzmann Machine in order to model memory retrieval and associativity. In the present work, we define and measure avalanche size distributions during memory retrieval, in order to gain insight regarding basic aspects of the functioning of these complex networks. The avalanche sizes defined for our model should be related to the time consumed and also to the size of the neuronal region which is activated, during memory retrieval. This allows the qualitative comparison of the behaviour of the distribution of cluster sizes, obtained during fMRI measurements of the propagation of signals in the brain, with the distribution of avalanche sizes obtained in our simulation experiments. This comparison corroborates the indication that the Nonextensive Statistical Mechanics formalism may indeed be more well suited to model the complex networks which constitute brain and mental structure.

  15. Calorimeter detector consisting of a KMgF3 scintillator and parallel-plate avalanche chamber

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buzulutskov, A.F.; Turchanovich, L.K.; Vasil'chenko, V.G.

    1989-01-01

    Scintillations of a KMgF 3 crystal have been detected in the parallel-plate avalanche chamber with a TEA gaseous photocathode, the scintillation signal is shown to be much higher than the direct ionization one. The characteristic properties of the calorimeters on the basis of such structure with electrical and optical readout are discussed. 10 refs.; 4 figs

  16. X-ray imaging with amorphous selenium: Pulse height measurements of avalanche gain fluctuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lui, Brian J. M.; Hunt, D. C.; Reznik, A.; Tanioka, K.; Rowlands, J. A.

    2006-01-01

    Avalanche multiplication in amorphous selenium (a-Se) can provide a large, adjustable gain for active matrix flat panel imagers (AMFPI), enabling quantum noise limited x-ray imaging during both radiography and fluoroscopy. In the case of direct conversion AMFPI, the multiplication factor for each x ray is a function of its depth of interaction, and the resulting variations in gain can reduce the detective quantum efficiency (DQE) of the system. An experimental method was developed to measure gain fluctuations by analyzing images of individual x rays that were obtained using a video camera with an a-Se target operated in avalanche mode. Pulse height spectra (PHS) of the charge produced per x ray were recorded for monoenergetic 30.9, 49.4, and 73.8 keV x-ray sources. The rapid initial decay and long tail of each PHS can be explained by a model in which positive charge dominates the initiation of avalanche. The Swank information factor quantifies the effect of gain fluctuation on DQE and was calculated from the PHS. The information factor was found to be 0.5 for a 25 μm a-Se layer with a maximum gain of ∼300. Changing the energy of the incident x ray influenced the range of the primary photoelectron and noticeably affected the tail of the experimental PHS, but did not significantly change the avalanche Swank factor

  17. Smartphone applications for communicating avalanche risk information - a review of existing practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charrière, M. K. M.; Bogaard, T. A.

    2015-11-01

    Every year, in all mountainous regions, people are victims of avalanches. One way to decrease those losses is believed to be informing about danger levels. The paper presents a study on current practices in the development of smartphones applications that are dedicated to avalanche risk communication. The analysis based on semi-structured interviews with developers of smartphone apps highlights the context of their development, how choices of content and visualization were made as well as how their effectiveness is evaluated. It appears that although the communicators agree on the message to disseminate, its representation triggers debate. Moreover, only simple evaluation processes are conducted but there is a clear awareness that further scientific efforts are needed to analyze the effectiveness of the smartphone apps. Finally, the current or planned possibility for non-experts users to report feedback on the snow and avalanches conditions open the doors to a transition of these apps from one-way communication tools to two-ways communication platforms. This paper also indicates the remaining challenges that avalanche risk communication is facing, although it is disputably the most advanced and standardized practice compared to other natural hazards. Therefore, this research is of interest for the entire field of natural hazards related risk communication.

  18. Implications of geomorphological research for recent and prehistoric avalanches and related hazards at Huascaran, Peru

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Klimeš, Jan; Vilímek, V.; Omelka, M.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 50, č. 1 (2009), s. 193-209 ISSN 0921-030X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30460519 Keywords : rock debris avalanches * natural hazards * Huascaran Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography Impact factor: 1.217, year: 2009

  19. Experimental multi-photon-resolving detector using a single avalanche photodiode

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Haderka, Ondřej; Hamar, M.; Peřina ml., Jan

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 28, - (2004), s. 149-154 ISSN 1434-6060 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LN00A015 Keywords : multichannel detector * avalanche photodiode Subject RIV: BH - Optics, Masers, Lasers Impact factor: 1.692, year: 2004

  20. A new single-photon avalanche diode in 90nm standard CMOS technology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Karami, M.A.; Gersbach, M.; Charbon, E.

    2010-01-01

    A single-photon avalanche diode (SPAD) fabricated in a 90nm standard CMOS process is reported. The detector comprises an octagonal multiplication region and a guard ring to prevent premature edge breakdown using exclusively standard layers. The proposed structure is the result of a systematic study

  1. Characterization of Single-Photon Avalanche Diodes in Standard 140-nm SOI CMOS Technology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lee, M.J.; Sun, P.; Charbon, E.

    2015-01-01

    We report on the characterization of single-photon avalanche diodes (SPADs) fabricated in standard 140-nm silicon on insulator (SOI) complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) technology. As a methodology for SPAD optimization, a test structure array, called SPAD farm, was realized with several

  2. A simple and accurate method for bidimensional position read-out of parallel plate avalanche counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breskin, A.; Zwang, N.

    1977-01-01

    A simple method for bidimensional position read-out of Parallel Plate Avalanche counters (PPAC) has been developed, using the induced charge technique. An accuracy better than 0.5 mm (FWHM) has been achieved for both coordinates with 5.5. MeV α-particles at gas pressures of 10-40 torr. (author)

  3. Flexible ultrathin-body single-photon avalanche diode sensors and CMOS integration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sun, P.; Ishihara, R.; Charbon, E.

    2016-01-01

    We proposed the world’s first flexible ultrathin-body single-photon avalanche diode (SPAD) as photon counting device providing a suitable solution to advanced implantable bio-compatible chronic medical monitoring, diagnostics and other applications. In this paper, we investigate the Geiger-mode

  4. Massive Formation of Equiaxed Crystals by Avalanches of Mushy Zone Segments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, A.; Stefan-Kharicha, M.; Kharicha, A.; Wu, M.

    2017-06-01

    It is well known that the growth and motion of equiaxed crystals govern important microstructural features, especially in larger castings such as heavy ingots. To determine the origin of the equiaxed crystals, heterogeneous nucleation, and/or fragmentation of dendrite arms from columnar regions are often discussed. In the present study, we demonstrate that under certain conditions relatively large areas of mushy regions slide downward and form spectacular crystal avalanches. These avalanches crumble into thousands of dendritic fragments, whereby the larger fragments immediately sediment and the smaller proceed to behave as equiaxed crystals. Traces of such crystal avalanches can be seen by conspicuous equiaxed layers in the lower part of the casting. From the arguments in the discussion, it is believed that such a phenomenon may occur in alloys which reveal an upward solutal buoyancy in the interdendritic mush. This would include certain steels and other alloys such as Cu-Al, Pb-Sn, or Ni-Al-alloys. Moreover, the occurrence of crystal avalanches contribute to the formation of V-segregations.

  5. A parallel plate avalanche detector system for the localization of relativistic heavy ions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burgei, R.; Demoulins, M.; Cavata, C.; Fanet, H.; Gosset, J.; Le Merdy, A.; L'Hote, D.; Lucas, B.; Lugol, J.C.; Poitou, J.; Valette, O.

    1990-01-01

    Parallel plate avalanche counters have been designed and used for the localization of relativistic heavy ions. They have been tested with alpha particles from a 241 Am source. They have been used with the heavy-ion beams from Saturne in conjunction with the 4π detector Diogene. They provide an accurate measurement of the vertex position with high efficiency. (orig.)

  6. Location specific forecasting of maximum and minimum ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    . The global NWP models, though able to provide reasonably good short- to medium-range weather forecasts, have comparatively less skill in forecasting surface parameters. It is well known that NWP model forecasts contain systematic biases ...

  7. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  8. Improving Local Weather Forecasts for Agricultural Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.; Keesman, K.J.

    2005-01-01

    For controlling agricultural systems, weather forecasts can be of substantial importance. Studies have shown that forecast errors can be reduced in terms of bias and standard deviation using forecasts and meteorological measurements from one specific meteorological station. For agricultural systems

  9. Developing an Experimental Simulation Method for Rock Avalanches: Fragmentation Behavior of Brittle Analogue Material

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thordén Haug, Øystein; Rosenau, Matthias; Leever, Karen; Oncken, Onno

    2013-04-01

    Gravitational mass movement on earth and other planets show a scale dependent behavior, of which the physics is not fully understood. In particular, the runout distance for small to medium sized landslides (volume dynamics control small and large landslides/rock avalanches. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain this scale dependent behavior, but no consensus has been reached. Experimental simulations of rock avalanches usually involve transport of loose granular material down a chute. Though such granular avalanche models provide important insights into avalanche dynamics, they imply that the material fully disintegrate instantaneously. Observations from nature, however, suggests that a transition from solid to "liquid" occurs over some finite distance downhill, critically controlling the mobility and energy budget of the avalanche. Few experimental studies simulated more realistically the material failing during sliding and those were realized in a labscale centrifuge, where the range of volumes/scales is limited. To develop a new modeling technique to study the scale dependent runout behavior of rock avalanches, we designed, tested and verified several brittle materials allowing fragmentation to occur under normal gravity conditions. According to the model similarity theory, the analogue material must behave dynamically similar to the rocks in natural rock avalanches. Ideally, the material should therefore deform in a brittle manner with limited elastic and ductile strains up to a certain critical stress, beyond which the material breaks and deforms irreversibly. According to scaling relations derived from dimensional analysis and for a model-to-prototype length ratio of 1/1000, the appropriate yield strength for an analogue material is in the order of 10 kPa, friction coefficient around 0.8 and stiffness in the order of MPa. We used different sand (garnet, quartz) in combination with different matrix materials (sugar, salt, starch, plaster) to cement

  10. Volcanic avalanche fault zone with pseudotachylite and gouge in French Massif Central

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernard, Karine; van Wyk de Vries, Benjamin

    2017-11-01

    Structures and textures with sedimentological variations at different scales of the lithofacies assemblage help us to constrain the basal kinematic transition from non-depositional to depositional conditions during volcanic avalanche emplacement. In the well-exposed impact-sheared contact along volcanic avalanche fault zone in the French Massif Central, we observe how the granular textures of the pseudotachylite and fault gouge have recorded the propagation of shock wave with granular oscillatory stress. Sequential events of basal aggradation along avalanche fault zone have been established related to fractal D-values, temperature pressure regime and oscillatory stress during slow wave velocity. A typical lithofacies assemblage with a reverse grading shows the pseudotachylite and fault gouge. A cataclastic gradient is characterised by the fractal D-values from 2.7 in jigsaw breccias with pseudotachylite partial melt, to 2.6 in the polymodal gouge. Shock, brecciation and comminution produce cataclastic shear bands in the pseudotachylite and quartz microstructures along the basal contact of the volcanic debris-avalanche deposit. Gouge microstructures show granular segregation, cataclasis with antithetic rotational Riedel shear, and an arching effect between the Riedel shear bands. X-ray microtomography provided 3D microfabrics along the clastic vein in the sandy-gouge. From the available statistical dataset, a few equations have been developed implicating the same cataclastic origin with a co-genetic evolution of lithofacies. An impact wave during primary shear propagation may contribute to produce hydroclastic matrix, pseudotachylite partial melt and proximal gouge thixotropy with v 50m/s and a T < 654 °C. The interseismic period with oscillatory stress is related to crushed clasts and basaltic melt around 800 °C, Riedel shear bands with granular segregation along the fault gouge. The secondary shock by matrix-rich avalanche (ΔP = 10GPa, T ≥ 1000-1500

  11. Guidelines for forecasting energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sonino, T.

    1976-11-01

    Four methodologies for forecasting energy demand are reviewed here after considering the role of energy in the economy and the analysis of energy use in different economic sectors. The special case of Israel is considered throughout, and some forecasts for energy demands in the year 2000 are presented. An energy supply mix that may be considered feasible is proposed. (author)

  12. Forecasting the future of biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitzpatrick, M. C.; Sanders, Nate; Ferrier, Simon

    2011-01-01

    , but their application to forecasting climate change impacts on biodiversity has been limited. Here we compare forecasts of changes in patterns of ant biodiversity in North America derived from ensembles of single-species models to those from a multi-species modeling approach, Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling (GDM...... climate change impacts on biodiversity....

  13. Forecasting Using Random Subspace Methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T. Boot (Tom); D. Nibbering (Didier)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractRandom subspace methods are a novel approach to obtain accurate forecasts in high-dimensional regression settings. We provide a theoretical justification of the use of random subspace methods and show their usefulness when forecasting monthly macroeconomic variables. We focus on two

  14. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  15. Forecasting Macroeconomic Labour Market Flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wilke, Ralf

    2017-01-01

    Forecasting labour market flows is important for budgeting and decision-making in government departments and public administration. Macroeconomic forecasts are normally obtained from time series data. In this article, we follow another approach that uses individual-level statistical analysis...

  16. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  17. Effective Feature Preprocessing for Time Series Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Junhua; Dong, Zhaoyang; Xu, Zhao

    2006-01-01

    Time series forecasting is an important area in data mining research. Feature preprocessing techniques have significant influence on forecasting accuracy, therefore are essential in a forecasting model. Although several feature preprocessing techniques have been applied in time series forecasting...... performance in time series forecasting. It is demonstrated in our experiment that, effective feature preprocessing can significantly enhance forecasting accuracy. This research can be a useful guidance for researchers on effectively selecting feature preprocessing techniques and integrating them with time...

  18. Method of forecasting power distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaneto, Kunikazu.

    1981-01-01

    Purpose: To obtain forecasting results at high accuracy by reflecting the signals from neutron detectors disposed in the reactor core on the forecasting results. Method: An on-line computer transfers, to a simulator, those process data such as temperature and flow rate for coolants in each of the sections and various measuring signals such as control rod positions from the nuclear reactor. The simulator calculates the present power distribution before the control operation. The signals from the neutron detectors at each of the positions in the reactor core are estimated from the power distribution and errors are determined based on the estimated values and the measured values to determine the smooth error distribution in the axial direction. Then, input conditions at the time to be forecast are set by a data setter. The simulator calculates the forecast power distribution after the control operation based on the set conditions. The forecast power distribution is corrected using the error distribution. (Yoshino, Y.)

  19. Monitoring and forecasting local landslide hazard in the area of Longyearbyen, Svalbard - early progress and experiences from the Autumn 2016 events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Thea; Krøgli, Ingeborg; Boje, Søren; Colleuille, Hervé

    2017-04-01

    Since 2013 the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) has operated a landslide early warning system (LEWS) for mainland Norway. The Svalbard islands, situated 800 km north of the Norwegian mainland, and 1200 km from the North Pole, are not part of the conventional early warning service. However, following the fatal snow avalanche event 19 Dec. 2015 in the settlement of Longyearbyen (78° north latitude), local authorities and the NVE have initiated monitoring of the hydro-meteorological conditions for the area of Longyearbyen, as an extraordinary precaution. Two operational forecasting teams from the NVE; the snow avalanche and the landslide hazard forecasters, perform hazard assessment related to snow avalanches, slush flows, debris flows, shallow slides and local flooding. This abstract will focus on recent experiences made by the landslide hazard team during the autumn 2016 landslide events, caused by a record setting wet and warm summer and autumn of 2016. The general concept of the Norwegian LEWS is based on frequency intervals of extreme hydro-meteorological conditions. This general concept has been transposed to the Longyearbyen area. Although the climate is considerably colder and drier than mainland Norway, experiences so far are positive and seem useful to the local authorities. Initially, the landslide hazard evaluation was intended to consider only slush flow hazard during the snow covered season. However, due to the extraordinary warm and wet summer and autumn 2016, the landslide hazard forecasters unexpectedly had to issue warnings for the local authorities due to increased risk of shallow landslides and debris flows. This was done in close cooperation with the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, who provided weather forecasts from the recently developed weather prediction model, AROME-Arctic. Two examples, from 14-15 Oct and 8-9 Nov 2016, will be given to demonstrate how the landslide hazard assessment for the Longyearbyen area is

  20. Assessment of storm forecast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Huus Bjerge, Martin

    at analysing the ability of existing forecast tools to predict storms at the Horns Rev 2 wind farm. The focus will be on predicting the time where the wind turbine will need to shut down to protect itself, e.g. the time where wind speed exceeds 25 m/s. At the same time, the planned shut-down should cost...... storms was analysed based on historical meteorological data available at Risø DTU and dynamically down-scaled to the Horns Rev 2 wind farm level. This solution was chosen due to the lack of measurements. Moreover, since the project started, there were four events during which Horns Rev 2 wind farm...

  1. Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Operational Forecasts

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) produced by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is a fully coupled model representing the...

  2. Black Sea coastal forecasting system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Kubryakov

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Black Sea coastal nowcasting and forecasting system was built within the framework of EU FP6 ECOOP (European COastalshelf sea OPerational observing and forecasting system project for five regions: the south-western basin along the coasts of Bulgaria and Turkey, the north-western shelf along the Romanian and Ukrainian coasts, coastal zone around of the Crimea peninsula, the north-eastern Russian coastal zone and the coastal zone of Georgia. The system operates in the real-time mode during the ECOOP project and afterwards. The forecasts include temperature, salinity and current velocity fields. Ecosystem model operates in the off-line mode near the Crimea coast.

  3. Forecasts: uncertain, inaccurate and biased?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Ambrasaite, Inga; Salling, Kim Bang

    2012-01-01

    Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts of cons....... It is recommended that more attention is given to monitoring completed projects so future forecasts can benefit from better data availability through systematic ex-post evaluations, and an example of how to utilize such data in practice is presented....

  4. Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barghouty, Nasser; Falconer, David

    2015-01-01

    Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

  5. The mobility of rock avalanches: disintegration, entrainment and deposition - a conceptual approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knapp, Sibylle; Mamot, Philipp; Krautblatter, Michael

    2015-04-01

    Massive rock slope failures cause more than 60% of all catastrophic landslide disasters. Failures usually progress through three consecutive phases: detachment, disintegration and flow. While significant advances have been achieved in modelling Rock Avalanche Phase 1 "Detachment" and Phase 3 "Flow", the crucial link between both during Phase 2 "Disintegration", is still poorly understood. Disintegration of the detached rock mass is often initiated by its first major impact with the ground surface. This is a preliminary setup of a PhD project in which we aim at understanding the importance of disintegration and on site conditions at the impact site on fluidization and mobilization. The TUM Landslides Group is experienced in near surface geophysics of rockwalls and under Alpine conditions and has also developed laboratory experience in testing resistivity and P-/S-wave velocity of anisotropic and fractured rocks in the laboratory. In addition, there is a more than ten year experience in the analysis of different magnitudes of rock slope failure. Many of these studies took part in the Wetterstein Mountains and close to the Zugspitze. In this project we plan to compare one very small (Steingerümpel, Rein valley, Germany, with 0.003 km³) and two larger test sites (Eibsee, Zugspitze area, Germany, with 0.3 km³ and Flims, Grisons, Switzerland, with 12 km³) situated in limestone rocks. From our preliminary work we know that the Steingerümpel bergsturz shows a low degree of fracturing in spite of a high impact; the latter ones are high-magnitude rock slope failures which both partially collapsed into a lake and were highly disintegrated and fluidized. We intend to use the smaller Eibsee rock avalanche as a training site where we can try to understand the full dynamics of the flow using sedimentology, geophysics and surface geomorphology which indicated compressive and extensional flow, superelevation and runups. Regarding entrainment processes, we will carry out a

  6. First characterisation of the "Rumi-Pana" rock avalanche deposits (Famatina Range, La Rioja, Argentina)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santiago Pullarello, José; Derron, Marc-Henri; Penna, Ivanna; Leiva, Alicia; Jaboyadoff, Michel

    2017-04-01

    Active mountain fronts are subject to large scale slope collapses which have the capacity to run long distances on piedmont areas. Along time, fluvial activity and other gravitatory processes can intensively erode and mask primary features related to the collapses. Therefore, to reconstruct the history of their occurrence, further analyses are needed, e.g. sedimentologic analyses. This work focuses on the occurrence of large rock avalanches in the Vinchina region, La Rioja (28°43'27.81'' S / 68°00'25.42'' W) on the western side of the Famatina range(Argentina). Here, photointerpretation of high resolution satellite images (Google Earth) allowed us to identify two rock avalanches, main scarps developed at 2575 and 2750 m a.s.l. . There are no absolute ages for these deposits, however, comparing their preservation degree with those dated further north (in similar climatic and landscape dynamics contexts [i]), we can suggest these rock avalanches took place during the Pleistocene. We carried out a fieldwork survey in this remote area, including classical landslide mapping, structural analysis, deposits characterization and sampling. The deposits reach the valley bottom (at around 1700 m a.s.l.) with runouts about 5 and 5.3 km long. In one of the cases, the morphology of the deposit is well preserved, allowing to reconstruct accurately its extension. However, in the second case, the deposits are strongly eroded by courses draining the mountain front, therefore further analyses should be done to reconstruct its extension. In addition to morphologic interpretations, a multiscale grain-size analysis was done to differentiate rock avalanches from other hillslope deposits: (1) 3D surface models of surface plots (5x5m) have been built by SfM photogrammetry; 2) classical sieving and 3) laser grain-size analysis of deposits. Samples were collected on different parts of the slope, but also along cross sections through the avalanche deposit. This deposits characterization will

  7. A simulated avalanche search and rescue mission induces temporary physiological and behavioural changes in military dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diverio, Silvana; Barbato, Olimpia; Cavallina, Roberta; Guelfi, Gabriella; Iaboni, Martina; Zasso, Renato; Di Mari, Walter; Santoro, Michele Matteo; Knowles, Toby G

    2016-09-01

    Saving human lives is of paramount importance in avalanche rescue missions. Avalanche military dogs represent an invaluable resource in these operations. However, their performance can be influenced by several environmental, social and transport challenges. If too severe, these are likely to activate a range of responses to stress, which might put at risk the dogs' welfare. The aim of this study was to assess the physiological and behavioural responses of a group of military dogs to a Simulated Avalanche Search and Rescue mission (SASR). Seventeen avalanche dogs from the Italian Military Force Guardia di Finanza (SAGF dogs) were monitored during a simulated search for a buried operator in an artificial avalanche area (SASR). Heart rate (HR), body temperature (RBT) and blood samples were collected at rest the day before the trial (T0), immediately after helicopter transport at the onset of the SASR (T1), after the discovery of the buried operator (T2) and 2h later (T3). Heart rate (HR), rectal body temperature (RBT), cortisol, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), creatine kinase (CK), non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) were measured. During the search mission the behaviour of each SAGF dog was measured by focal animal sampling and qualitatively assessed by its handler and two observers. Inter-rater agreement was evaluated. Snow and environmental variables were also measured. All dogs successfully completed their search for the buried, simulated victim within 10min. The SASR was shown to exert significant increases on RBT, NEFA and cortisol (Pdog's search mission ability was found only for motivation, signalling behaviour, signs of stress and possessive reward playing. More time signalling was related to shorter search time. In conclusion, despite extreme environmental and training conditions only temporary physiological and behavioural changes were recorded in the avalanche dogs. Their excellent performance in successful simulated SASR

  8. Earthquake number forecasts testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Yan Y.

    2017-10-01

    We study the distributions of earthquake numbers in two global earthquake catalogues: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. The properties of these distributions are especially required to develop the number test for our forecasts of future seismic activity rate, tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). A common assumption, as used in the CSEP tests, is that the numbers are described by the Poisson distribution. It is clear, however, that the Poisson assumption for the earthquake number distribution is incorrect, especially for the catalogues with a lower magnitude threshold. In contrast to the one-parameter Poisson distribution so widely used to describe earthquake occurrences, the negative-binomial distribution (NBD) has two parameters. The second parameter can be used to characterize the clustering or overdispersion of a process. We also introduce and study a more complex three-parameter beta negative-binomial distribution. We investigate the dependence of parameters for both Poisson and NBD distributions on the catalogue magnitude threshold and on temporal subdivision of catalogue duration. First, we study whether the Poisson law can be statistically rejected for various catalogue subdivisions. We find that for most cases of interest, the Poisson distribution can be shown to be rejected statistically at a high significance level in favour of the NBD. Thereafter, we investigate whether these distributions fit the observed distributions of seismicity. For this purpose, we study upper statistical moments of earthquake numbers (skewness and kurtosis) and compare them to the theoretical values for both distributions. Empirical values for the skewness and the kurtosis increase for the smaller magnitude threshold and increase with even greater intensity for small temporal subdivision of catalogues. The Poisson distribution for large rate values approaches the Gaussian law, therefore its skewness

  9. Ultraviolet AlGaN-based Avalanche Photo Diode Grown over Single Crystal Bulk AlN Substrates, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Premature breakdown is a key obstacle in developing AlGaN-based avalanche photo diodes (APD) for ultraviolet (UV) light detection. Novel materials growth techniques,...

  10. Recalculation of an artificially released avalanche with SAMOS and validation with measurements from a pulsed Doppler radar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Sailer

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available A joint experiment was carried out on 10 February 1999 by the Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research (SFISAR and the Austrian Institute for Avalanche and Torrent Research (AIATR, of the Federal Office and Re-search Centre for Forests, BFW to measure forces and velocities at the full scale experimental site CRÊTA BESSE in VALLÉE DE LA SIONNE, Canton du Valais, Switzerland. A huge avalanche could be released artificially, which permitted extensive investigations (dynamic measurements, im-provement of measurement systems, simulation model verification, design of protective measures, etc.. The results of the velocity measurements from the dual frequency pulsed Doppler avalanche radar of the AIATR and the recalculation with the numerical simulation model SAMOS are explained in this paper.

  11. Proof-of-concept and feasibility demonstrations for an avalanche photodiode/photoelastic modulator-based imaging polarimeter

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Building on the successful heritage of JPL’s Multiangle SpectroPolarimetric Imager (MSPI), we propose infusing HgCdTe avalanche photodiode (APD) array technology...

  12. GaN-based, low-voltage avalanche photodiodes for robust and compact UV imagers, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This Phase I SBIR program is directed toward the development of a novel low-voltage (~10V) AlGaN-based multi-quantum well (MQW) avalanche photodiode (APD) on...

  13. Hierarchical Estimation as Basis for Hierarchical Forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strijbosch, L.W.G.; Heuts, R.M.J.; Moors, J.J.A.

    2006-01-01

    In inventory management, hierarchical forecasting (HF) is a hot issue : families of items are formed for which total demand is forecasted; total forecast then is broken up to produce forecasts for the individual items.Since HF is a complicated procedure, analytical results are hard to obtain;

  14. Recurrent networks for wave forecasting

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    The tremendous increase in offshore operational activities demands improved wave forecasting techniques. With the knowledge of accurate wave conditions, it is possible to carry out the marine activities such as offshore drilling, naval operations...

  15. Load forecasting of supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lisa Buth; Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a novel study of models for forecasting the electrical load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. Every hour the hourly electrical load for refrigeration is forecasted for the following 42 h. The forecast models are adaptive linear time series models. The model has two regimes; one for opening hours and one for closing hours, this is modeled by a regime switching model and two different...... methods for predicting the regimes are tested. The dynamic relation between the weather and the load is modeled by simple transfer functions and the non-linearities are described using spline functions. The results are thoroughly evaluated and it is shown that the spline functions are suitable...

  16. Forecasting and management of technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roper, A. T

    2011-01-01

    .... The scope of this edition has broadened to include management of technology content that is relevant to now to executives in organizations while updating and strengthening the technology forecasting...

  17. Intrinsic Bistability and Critical Slowing in Tm3+/Yb3+ Codoped Laser Crystal with the Photon Avalanche Mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Li; Li-Xue, Chen; Xin-Lu, Zhang

    2009-01-01

    We present theoretically a novel intrinsic optical bistability (IOB) in the Tm 3+ /Yb 3+ codoped system with a photon avalanche mechanism. Numerical simulations based on the rate equation model demonstrate distinct IOB hysteresis and critical slowing dynamics around the avalanche thresholds. Such an IOB characteristic in Tm 3+ /Yb 3+ codoped crystal has potential applications in solid-state bistable optical displays and luminescence switchers in visible-infrared spectra. (fundamental areas of phenomenology (including applications))

  18. Measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent

    2005-01-01

    Project promoters, forecasters, and managers sometimes object to two things in measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: (1)using the forecast made at the time of making the decision to build as the basis for measuring inaccuracy and (2)using traffic during the first year of operations...... in travel demand forecasts are likely to be conservatively biased, i.e., accuracy in travel demand forecasts estimated from such samples would likely be higher than accuracy in travel demand forecasts in the project population. This bias must be taken into account when interpreting the results from...... statistical analyses of inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting....

  19. Forecasting with Dynamic Regression Models

    CERN Document Server

    Pankratz, Alan

    2012-01-01

    One of the most widely used tools in statistical forecasting, single equation regression models is examined here. A companion to the author's earlier work, Forecasting with Univariate Box-Jenkins Models: Concepts and Cases, the present text pulls together recent time series ideas and gives special attention to possible intertemporal patterns, distributed lag responses of output to input series and the auto correlation patterns of regression disturbance. It also includes six case studies.

  20. Forecasting Interest Rates and Inflation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chun, Albert Lee

    This study examines the performance of the professional analysts in the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts vis-à-vis set of competing econometric benchmarks, including shrinkage versions that adjust for in-sample over-fit in improving out-of-sample performance. The individual participants perform...... document predictability in the survey forecast errors, which exhibit substantial variability across different economic episodes, and propose a new adjustment that can substantially improve the performance of the survey participants....

  1. Setting best practice criteria for self-differencing avalanche photodiodes in quantum key distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehler-Sidki, Alexander; Dynes, James F.; Lucamarini, Marco; Roberts, George L.; Sharpe, Andrew W.; Savory, Seb J.; Yuan, Zhiliang; Shields, Andrew J.

    2017-10-01

    In recent years, the security of avalanche photodiodes as single photon detectors for quantum key distribution has been subjected to much scrutiny. The most prominent example of this surrounds the vulnerability of such devices to blinding under strong illumination. We focus on self-differencing avalanche photodiodes, single photon detectors that have demonstrated count rates exceeding 1 GCounts/s resulting in secure key rates over 1 MBit/s. These detectors use a passive electronic circuit to cancel any periodic signals thereby enhancing detection sensitivity. However this intrinsic feature can be exploited by adversaries to gain control of the devices using illumination of a moderate intensity. Through careful experimental examinations, we define here a set of criteria for these detectors to avoid such attacks.

  2. Exploring the significance of the fluidized flow regime for avalanche hazard mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Issler, Dieter; Gauer, Peter

    Observational and experimental evidence suggests that it is important to explicitly account for the fluidized flow regime in avalanche hazard mapping due to its high mobility, intermediate density and high velocity. We explore the differences from conventional runout modelling by implementing an extension of the Norem-Irgens-Schieldrop (NIS) rheology in a simple mass-point model. When the dispersive stresses and the excess pore pressure equal the overburden pressure, the flow height increases and the density diminishes until a new equilibrium is reached, determined by the different density dependencies of the two parameters of the dispersive stresses. Fluidization requires sufficiently steep terrain; when it occurs it leads to substantially higher velocities than compared to the dense-flow regime. The model parameters are strongly constrained by their physical meaning and vary little between widely different avalanches. However, in all test cases we obtained better agreement between simulated and observed runout distances and pressure effects than with conventional models.

  3. Assessing the value of real-time snow and avalanche information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeidler, Antonia; Adams, Marc; Schuster, Martin; Berner, Martin; Nagy, Wilhelm

    2017-04-01

    This poster presentation shows first results from a pilot study on exploring the possibilities of using existing and new information and communication technologies (ICT) for snow and avalanche assessments. Today, ICT solutions allow the utilisation of information at a high spatiotemporal resolution, due to the widespread availability of internet access, high computing power and affordable mobile devices. Therefore, there is an increasing request for up to date information on snow and avalanche decision-making. However, there are challenges that need to be addressed from different view points. These include topics in the field of technological feasibility of providing a stable network, exchanging trustworthy information and motivation of experts to participate. This contribution discusses the lessons-learnt, from the establishment of a platform to the user-experience.

  4. Mapping snow avalanche risk using GIS technique and 3D modeling in Ceahlau Mountain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covasnianu, A.; Grigoras, I. R.; State, L. E.; Balin, D.; Hogas, S.; Balin, I.

    2009-04-01

    This study consisted in a precise mapping project (GPS field campaign and on-screen digitization of the topographic maps at 1:5.000 scale) of the Ceahlau mountain area in Romanian Carpathians in order to address the snow avalanche risk management, surveying and monitoring. Thus we considered the slope, aspect, altitude, landforms and roughness derived from a high resolute numerical terrain model (31 km2 at 1: 5.000 scale resulted in a spatial resolution of 3 m by the help of Topo to Raster tool). These parameters were classified according to a model applied into Tatra Mountains and used over Ceahlau Massive. The results were adapted and interpreted considering to the European Avalanche Hazard Scale. This work was made in the context of the elaboration of Risk Map and is directly concerning both the security of tourism activities but also the management of the Natural Park Ceahlau. The extension of this method to similar mountain areas is ongoing.

  5. Modelling results of avalanche multiplication in AlGaAs soft X-ray APDs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnett, A.M., E-mail: amb67@le.ac.u [Space Research Centre, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Michael Atiyah Building, University of Leicester, Leicester LE1 7RH (United Kingdom); Lees, J.E.; Bassford, D.J. [Space Research Centre, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Michael Atiyah Building, University of Leicester, Leicester LE1 7RH (United Kingdom); Ng, J.S.; Tan, C.H.; Gomez, R.B. [Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, University of Sheffield, Mappin Street, Sheffield S1 3JD (United Kingdom)

    2011-01-21

    First results from a new simple simulation of X-ray spectroscopy with an Al{sub 0.8}Ga{sub 0.2}As p{sup +}-p{sup -}-n{sup +} spectroscopic X-ray photon counting avalanche photodiode are presented and compared with experimentally obtained data. Particular attention is paid to the experimentally observed phenomenon of an additional peak being present in the spectrum from a radioisotope source that, whilst previously reported, had not been fully explained. The additional peak is shown to result from the unequal distributions of multiplications undergone by the charge carriers created by photons absorbed in the p{sup +} and p{sup -} layers. The consequences of this effect for future AlGaAs X-ray photon counting avalanche photodiode designs are discussed.

  6. Performance and simulation of a double-gap resistive plate chamber in the avalanche mode

    CERN Document Server

    Ahn Sung Hwan; Hong Byung Sik; Hong Seong Jong; Ito, M; Kang, T I; Kim, B I; Kim, J H; Kim, Y J; Kim, Y U; Koo, D G; Lee Hyup Woo; Lee, K B; Lee Kyong Sei; Lee Seok Jae; Lim, J K; Moon, D H; Nam, S K; Park, S; Park, W J; Rhee June Tak; Ryu, M S; Sim Kwang Souk

    2004-01-01

    We present a detailed analysis of the time and the charge signals of a prototype double-gap resistive plate chamber for the endcap region of the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) detector at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). The chamber was built with relatively low-resistivity bakelite. The time and the charge results demonstrate that the high- voltage plateau, which satisfies various CMS requirements for the efficiency, the noise cluster rate, the fraction of the large signal, and the streamer probability, can be extended at least up to 400 V with the present design. In addition, a simple avalanche multiplication model is studied in detail. The model can reproduce the experimental charge spectra reasonably well. The charge information enables us to estimate the effective Townsend coefficient in avalanche-mode operation.

  7. The Large-Scale Debris Avalanche From The Tancitaro Volcano (Mexico): Characterization And Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, S.; Gigli, G.; Falorni, G.; Garduno Monroy, V. H.; Arreygue, E.

    2008-12-01

    The Tancitaro is an andesitic-dacitic stratovolcano located in the Michoacán Guanajuato volcanic field within the west-central portion of the trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. The volcanism in this area is characterized by two composite volcanoes, the highest of which is the Tancitaro volcanic edifice (3840 m), some low angle lava cones and more than 1,000 monogenetic cinder cones. The distribution of the cinder cones is controlled by NE-SW active faults, although there are also additional faults with NNW-SSE trends along which some cones are aligned. The Tancitaro stratovolcano is located at the intersection of the tectonical structures that originate these alignments. All this geological activity has contributed to the gravitational instability of the volcano, leading to a huge sector collapse which produced the investigated debris avalanche. The collapse structure is an east-facing horseshoe-shaped crater (4 km wide and 5.3 km long), related with a large fan that was deposited within the Tepalcatepec depression. The deposit starts only 7 km downslope from the failure scar, it is 66 km long and covers an area of approximately 1155 km2. The landslide magnitude is about 20 km3 and it was firstly determined by the reconstruction of the paleo-edifice using a GIS software and then validated by the observation of significant outcrops. The fan was primarily formed by the deposit of this huge debris avalanche and subsequently by debris flow and fluvial deposits. Field investigations on the fan area highlighted the presence of two texturally distinct parts, which are referred to the 'block facies' and the 'matrix facies'. The first sedimentary structure is responsible for the typical hummock morphologies in the proximal area, as seen in many other debris avalanche deposits. Instead in the distal zones, the deposit is made up by the 'mixed block and matrix facies'. Blocks and megablocks, some of which are characterized by a jigsaw puzzle texture, gradually decrease in size

  8. Increasing power-law range in avalanche amplitude and energy distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navas-Portella, Víctor; Serra, Isabel; Corral, Álvaro; Vives, Eduard

    2018-02-01

    Power-law-type probability density functions spanning several orders of magnitude are found for different avalanche properties. We propose a methodology to overcome empirical constraints that limit the range of truncated power-law distributions. By considering catalogs of events that cover different observation windows, the maximum likelihood estimation of a global power-law exponent is computed. This methodology is applied to amplitude and energy distributions of acoustic emission avalanches in failure-under-compression experiments of a nanoporous silica glass, finding in some cases global exponents in an unprecedented broad range: 4.5 decades for amplitudes and 9.5 decades for energies. In the latter case, however, strict statistical analysis suggests experimental limitations might alter the power-law behavior.

  9. Mean secondary electron yield of avalanche electrons in the channels of a microchannel plate detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Funsten, H.O.; Suszcynsky, D.M.; Harper, R.W.

    1996-01-01

    By modeling the statistical evolution of an avalanche created by 20 keV protons impacting the input surface of a z-stack microchannel plate (MCP) detector, the mean secondary electron yield γ C of avalanche electrons propagating through a MCP channel is measured to equal 1.37 for 760 V per MCP in the z stack. This value agrees with other studies that used MCP gain measurements to infer γ C . The technique described here to measure γ C is independent of gain saturation effects and simplifying assumptions used in the segmented dynode model, both of which can introduce errors when inferring γ C through gain measurements. copyright 1996 American Institute of Physics

  10. Municipal water consumption forecast accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fullerton, Thomas M.; Molina, Angel L.

    2010-06-01

    Municipal water consumption planning is an active area of research because of infrastructure construction and maintenance costs, supply constraints, and water quality assurance. In spite of that, relatively few water forecast accuracy assessments have been completed to date, although some internal documentation may exist as part of the proprietary "grey literature." This study utilizes a data set of previously published municipal consumption forecasts to partially fill that gap in the empirical water economics literature. Previously published municipal water econometric forecasts for three public utilities are examined for predictive accuracy against two random walk benchmarks commonly used in regional analyses. Descriptive metrics used to quantify forecast accuracy include root-mean-square error and Theil inequality statistics. Formal statistical assessments are completed using four-pronged error differential regression F tests. Similar to studies for other metropolitan econometric forecasts in areas with similar demographic and labor market characteristics, model predictive performances for the municipal water aggregates in this effort are mixed for each of the municipalities included in the sample. Given the competitiveness of the benchmarks, analysts should employ care when utilizing econometric forecasts of municipal water consumption for planning purposes, comparing them to recent historical observations and trends to insure reliability. Comparative results using data from other markets, including regions facing differing labor and demographic conditions, would also be helpful.

  11. Change in snow avalanche and debris flow hazards in the region of Krasnaya Polyana as the result of anthropogenic activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shnyparkov, A. L.; Seliverstov, Y. G.; Sokratov, S. A.; Koltermann, K. P.

    2012-04-01

    The first evaluations of the snow avalanches and debris flow danger in the region of Krasnaya Polyana (Winter Olympic Games 2014 site) were made by the staff of LSADF in 1960s. In those times the danger was estimated as medium and low. Active development of the region started in 2000, when the ski (mountain climatic health) resort Alpika Service was constructed at the north slope of Aibga mountain range. Then the Alpine resorts Rosa Khutor and Gornaya Karusel [Mountain Carousel] were put into operation on the same slope. OAO Gazprom was also developing its own ski resort at the neighbouring Psekhako ridge. As the result of deforestation the quantity of small snow avalanches increased on the Aibga slopes. Skiers were caught several times by avalanches initiated by them in the reported avalanche events. The construction of ski runs, motorways, roads, as well as building of other related infrastructure has resulted in considerable change in relief. The sediment capping was dumped into stream canals, which resulted in the formation of debris flows, threatening the infrastructure of the ski resorts. The relief change related to the on going Olympic constructions is especially pronounced, when newly formed landfilling on some slopes becomes the material for landslides and debris flows and beds for avalanches. Thus, the degree of snow avalanche and debris flows danger increased considerably in the recent years, requiring originally unplanned mitigation measures.

  12. In-situ observations of the April 2014 Mount Everest Avalanche

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Kent; Cristofanelli, Paolo; Bonasoni, Paolo; Pietro Verza, Gian; Semple, John

    2016-04-01

    Instrumental records indicate a warming of approximately 0.8oC has occurred in the Everest region since the 1980s that has resulted in a 100-300m rise in the height at which the ground is permanently frozen as well as a retreat and thinning of Everest's glaciers. This period of warming has coincided with Mount Everest becoming an increasingly important destination for both climbers and trekkers. For some time, there have been concerns that this warming and the resultant changes in the region's glaciers may be increasing the risks for both travellers to Mount Everest as well as the indigenous populations who support them. On April 18 2014, an avalanche caused by the collapse of a large serac swept down Mount Everest's Khumbu Ice Fall resulting in the deaths of 16 Sherpa. Although satellite imagery has been used to estimate the size of the serac, in-situ data on the avalanche itself has not been available. Here we show that this event was of a sufficient size as to result in the excitation of a 20 min long 'avalanche wind' that was observed at the Nepal Climate Observatory-Pyramid situated 12 km from Mount Everest. We use these observations to estimate that the winds at Everest Base Camp during this event were of hurricane strength. As a result of the destabilization of the region's glaciers due to the climate change, there are concerns that such events may become more frequent. These results provide the basis for a method to estimate the frequency and severity of avalanches in this region.

  13. Performances of Resistive Plate chamber Operated in Avalanche Mode under 137Cs Irradiation

    CERN Document Server

    Abbrescia, Marcello; Gianini, Gabriele; Iaselli, Giuseppe; Maggi, Marcello; Marangelli, Bartolomeo; Natali, Sergio; Nuzzo, Salvatore; Ranieri, Antonio; Ratti, Sergio P; Romano, Francesco; Vitulo, Paolo

    1997-01-01

    A 2 mm gas RPC with bakelite plates has been operated in avalanche mode under 137Cs source irradiation. We report on measurements of the efficiency in cosmic rays detection and of the charge developed in the gap, performed for different gas mixtures. We show that C2H2F4 based mixtures exhibit a wide full efficiency plateau with low streamer probability, while the argon based mixtures allow to reduce the detector power consumption

  14. Light from electron avalanches and background rejection in X-ray astronomy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siegmund, O.H.W.; Sanford, P.W.; Mason, I.M.; Culhane, J.L.; Cockshott, R.

    1980-01-01

    A modified version of the parallel plate imaging proportional counter, developed to register images of cosmic x-ray sources in the focal planes of x-ray telescopes, has been constructed to investigate the application of risetime discrimination to the scintillation pulses caused by the electron avalanche process. It is shown that efficient background event rejection (> 90%) is achieved and the application of this system for x-ray astronomy is discussed. (U.K.)

  15. X-ray spectrometry with Peltier-cooled large area avalanche photodiodes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandes, L.M.P.; Lopes, J.A.M.; Santos, J.M.F. dos; Conde, C.A.N.

    2004-01-01

    Performance characteristics of the response of a Peltier-cooled large-area avalanche photodiode are investigated. Detector gain, energy linearity, energy resolution and minimum detectable energy are studied at different operation temperatures. Detector energy resolution and lowest detectable X-ray energy present a strong improvement as the operation temperature is reduced from 25 to 15 deg. C and slower improvements are achieved for temperatures below 10 deg. C

  16. Network dynamics in nociceptive pathways assessed by the neuronal avalanche model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu José

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Traditional electroencephalography provides a critical assessment of pain responses. The perception of pain, however, may involve a series of signal transmission pathways in higher cortical function. Recent studies have shown that a mathematical method, the neuronal avalanche model, may be applied to evaluate higher-order network dynamics. The neuronal avalanche is a cascade of neuronal activity, the size distribution of which can be approximated by a power law relationship manifested by the slope of a straight line (i.e., the α value. We investigated whether the neuronal avalanche could be a useful index for nociceptive assessment. Findings Neuronal activity was recorded with a 4 × 8 multichannel electrode array in the primary somatosensory cortex (S1 and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC. Under light anesthesia, peripheral pinch stimulation increased the slope of the α value in both the ACC and S1, whereas brush stimulation increased the α value only in the S1. The increase in α values was blocked in both regions under deep anesthesia. The increase in α values in the ACC induced by peripheral pinch stimulation was blocked by medial thalamic lesion, but the increase in α values in the S1 induced by brush and pinch stimulation was not affected. Conclusions The neuronal avalanche model shows a critical state in the cortical network for noxious-related signal processing. The α value may provide an index of brain network activity that distinguishes the responses to somatic stimuli from the control state. These network dynamics may be valuable for the evaluation of acute nociceptive processes and may be applied to chronic pathological pain conditions.

  17. 1000-V, 300-ps pulse-generation circuit using silicon avalanche devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benzel, D. M.; Pocha, M. D.

    1985-07-01

    A Marx configured avalanche transistor string and a pulse rise-time peaking diode are used to generate pulses of >1000 V into a 50-Ω load with rise times of less than 300 ps. The trigger delay of this circuit is about 7-10 ns, with jitter <100 ps. This circuit has been used to generate pulses at a repetition rate up to 5 kHz.

  18. III-V strain layer superlattice based band engineered avalanche photodiodes (Presentation Recording)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Sid

    2015-08-01

    Laser detection and ranging (LADAR)-based systems operating in the Near Infrared (NIR) and Short Wave Infrared (SWIR) have become popular optical sensors for remote sensing, medical, and environmental applications. Sophisticated laser-based radar and weapon systems used for long-range military and astronomical applications need to detect, recognize, and track a variety of targets under a wide spectrum of atmospheric conditions. Infrared APDs play an important role in LADAR systems by integrating the detection and gain stages in a single device. Robust silicon-APDs are limited to visible and very near infrared region ( 3um) infrared photon detection applications. Recently, various research groups (including Ghosh et. al.) have reported SWIR and MWIR HgCdTe APDs on CdZnTe and Si substrates. However, HgCdTe APDs suffer from low breakdown fields due to material defects, and excess noise increases significantly at high electric fields. During the past decade, InAs/GaSb Strain Layer Superlattice (SLS) material system has emerged as a potential material for the entire infrared spectrum because of relatively easier growth, comparable absorption coefficients, lower tunneling currents and longer Auger lifetimes resulting in enhanced detectivities (D*). Band engineering in type II SLS allows us to engineer avalanche properties of electrons and holes. This is a great advantage over bulk InGaAs and HgCdTe APDs where engineering avalanche properties is not possible. The talk will discuss the evolution of superlattice based avalanche photodiodes and some of the recent results on the work being done at Raytheon on SWIR avalanche photodiodes.

  19. Rock avalanche and rock glacier: A compound landform study from Hornsund, Svalbard

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hartvich, Filip; Blahůt, Jan; Stemberk, Josef

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 276, JAN 1 (2017), s. 244-256 ISSN 0169-555X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LM2015079; GA MŠk(CZ) LG15007 Institutional support: RVO:67985891 Keywords : ERT * TLS (LiDAR) * lichenometry * morphometry * rock avalanche * rock glacier * Schmidt hammer * Svalbard * Hornsund Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy OBOR OECD: Geology Impact factor: 2.958, year: 2016

  20. Snow fracture in relation to slab avalanche release: critical state for the onset of crack propagation

    OpenAIRE

    J. Gaume; A. van Herwijnen; G. Chambon; N. Wever; J. Schweizer

    2017-01-01

    The failure of a weak snow layer buried below cohesive slab layers is a necessary, but insufficient, condition for the release of a dry-snow slab avalanche. The size of the crack in the weak layer must also exceed a critical length to propagate across a slope. In contrast to pioneering shear-based approaches, recent developments account for weak layer collapse and allow for better explaining typical observations of remote triggering from low-angle terrain. However, these new...