WorldWideScience

Sample records for average model parameter

  1. Averaging models: parameters estimation with the R-Average procedure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Noventa

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The Functional Measurement approach, proposed within the theoretical framework of Information Integration Theory (Anderson, 1981, 1982, can be a useful multi-attribute analysis tool. Compared to the majority of statistical models, the averaging model can account for interaction effects without adding complexity. The R-Average method (Vidotto & Vicentini, 2007 can be used to estimate the parameters of these models. By the use of multiple information criteria in the model selection procedure, R-Average allows for the identification of the best subset of parameters that account for the data. After a review of the general method, we present an implementation of the procedure in the framework of R-project, followed by some experiments using a Monte Carlo method.

  2. Simultaneous inference for model averaging of derived parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Signe Marie; Ritz, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Model averaging is a useful approach for capturing uncertainty due to model selection. Currently, this uncertainty is often quantified by means of approximations that do not easily extend to simultaneous inference. Moreover, in practice there is a need for both model averaging and simultaneous...... inference for derived parameters calculated in an after-fitting step. We propose a method for obtaining asymptotically correct standard errors for one or several model-averaged estimates of derived parameters and for obtaining simultaneous confidence intervals that asymptotically control the family...

  3. Robust nonlinear autoregressive moving average model parameter estimation using stochastic recurrent artificial neural networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chon, K H; Hoyer, D; Armoundas, A A

    1999-01-01

    In this study, we introduce a new approach for estimating linear and nonlinear stochastic autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model parameters, given a corrupt signal, using artificial recurrent neural networks. This new approach is a two-step approach in which the parameters of the deterministic...... part of the stochastic ARMA model are first estimated via a three-layer artificial neural network (deterministic estimation step) and then reestimated using the prediction error as one of the inputs to the artificial neural networks in an iterative algorithm (stochastic estimation step). The prediction...... error is obtained by subtracting the corrupt signal of the estimated ARMA model obtained via the deterministic estimation step from the system output response. We present computer simulation examples to show the efficacy of the proposed stochastic recurrent neural network approach in obtaining accurate...

  4. Compact and accurate linear and nonlinear autoregressive moving average model parameter estimation using laguerre functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chon, K H; Cohen, R J; Holstein-Rathlou, N H

    1997-01-01

    A linear and nonlinear autoregressive moving average (ARMA) identification algorithm is developed for modeling time series data. The algorithm uses Laguerre expansion of kernals (LEK) to estimate Volterra-Wiener kernals. However, instead of estimating linear and nonlinear system dynamics via moving...... average models, as is the case for the Volterra-Wiener analysis, we propose an ARMA model-based approach. The proposed algorithm is essentially the same as LEK, but this algorithm is extended to include past values of the output as well. Thus, all of the advantages associated with using the Laguerre...

  5. Variations in environmental tritium doses due to meteorological data averaging and uncertainties in pathway model parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kock, A.

    1996-05-01

    The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies.

  6. Variations in environmental tritium doses due to meteorological data averaging and uncertainties in pathway model parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kock, A.

    1996-05-01

    The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies

  7. Adaptation of model proteins from cold to hot environments involves continuous and small adjustments of average parameters related to amino acid composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vendittis, Emmanuele; Castellano, Immacolata; Cotugno, Roberta; Ruocco, Maria Rosaria; Raimo, Gennaro; Masullo, Mariorosario

    2008-01-07

    The growth temperature adaptation of six model proteins has been studied in 42 microorganisms belonging to eubacterial and archaeal kingdoms, covering optimum growth temperatures from 7 to 103 degrees C. The selected proteins include three elongation factors involved in translation, the enzymes glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase and superoxide dismutase, the cell division protein FtsZ. The common strategy of protein adaptation from cold to hot environments implies the occurrence of small changes in the amino acid composition, without altering the overall structure of the macromolecule. These continuous adjustments were investigated through parameters related to the amino acid composition of each protein. The average value per residue of mass, volume and accessible surface area allowed an evaluation of the usage of bulky residues, whereas the average hydrophobicity reflected that of hydrophobic residues. The specific proportion of bulky and hydrophobic residues in each protein almost linearly increased with the temperature of the host microorganism. This finding agrees with the structural and functional properties exhibited by proteins in differently adapted sources, thus explaining the great compactness or the high flexibility exhibited by (hyper)thermophilic or psychrophilic proteins, respectively. Indeed, heat-adapted proteins incline toward the usage of heavier-size and more hydrophobic residues with respect to mesophiles, whereas the cold-adapted macromolecules show the opposite behavior with a certain preference for smaller-size and less hydrophobic residues. An investigation on the different increase of bulky residues along with the growth temperature observed in the six model proteins suggests the relevance of the possible different role and/or structure organization played by protein domains. The significance of the linear correlations between growth temperature and parameters related to the amino acid composition improved when the analysis was

  8. The Efficiency of OLS Estimators of Structural Parameters in a Simple Linear Regression Model in the Calibration of the Averages Scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kowal Robert

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available A simple linear regression model is one of the pillars of classic econometrics. Multiple areas of research function within its scope. One of the many fundamental questions in the model concerns proving the efficiency of the most commonly used OLS estimators and examining their properties. In the literature of the subject one can find taking back to this scope and certain solutions in that regard. Methodically, they are borrowed from the multiple regression model or also from a boundary partial model. Not everything, however, is here complete and consistent. In the paper a completely new scheme is proposed, based on the implementation of the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality in the arrangement of the constraint aggregated from calibrated appropriately secondary constraints of unbiasedness which in a result of choice the appropriate calibrator for each variable directly leads to showing this property. A separate range-is a matter of choice of such a calibrator. These deliberations, on account of the volume and kinds of the calibration, were divided into a few parts. In the one the efficiency of OLS estimators is proven in a mixed scheme of the calibration by averages, that is preliminary, and in the most basic frames of the proposed methodology. In these frames the future outlines and general premises constituting the base of more distant generalizations are being created.

  9. Review of the different methods to derive average spacing from resolved resonance parameters sets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fort, E.; Derrien, H.; Lafond, D.

    1979-12-01

    The average spacing of resonances is an important parameter for statistical model calculations, especially concerning non fissile nuclei. The different methods to derive this average value from resonance parameters sets have been reviewed and analyzed in order to tentatively detect their respective weaknesses and propose recommendations. Possible improvements are suggested

  10. Constructive Epistemic Modeling: A Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, F. T. C.; Elshall, A. S.

    2014-12-01

    Constructive epistemic modeling is the idea that our understanding of a natural system through a scientific model is a mental construct that continually develops through learning about and from the model. Using the hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) method [1], this study shows that segregating different uncertain model components through a BMA tree of posterior model probabilities, model prediction, within-model variance, between-model variance and total model variance serves as a learning tool [2]. First, the BMA tree of posterior model probabilities permits the comparative evaluation of the candidate propositions of each uncertain model component. Second, systemic model dissection is imperative for understanding the individual contribution of each uncertain model component to the model prediction and variance. Third, the hierarchical representation of the between-model variance facilitates the prioritization of the contribution of each uncertain model component to the overall model uncertainty. We illustrate these concepts using the groundwater modeling of a siliciclastic aquifer-fault system. The sources of uncertainty considered are from geological architecture, formation dip, boundary conditions and model parameters. The study shows that the HBMA analysis helps in advancing knowledge about the model rather than forcing the model to fit a particularly understanding or merely averaging several candidate models. [1] Tsai, F. T.-C., and A. S. Elshall (2013), Hierarchical Bayesian model averaging for hydrostratigraphic modeling: Uncertainty segregation and comparative evaluation. Water Resources Research, 49, 5520-5536, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20428. [2] Elshall, A.S., and F. T.-C. Tsai (2014). Constructive epistemic modeling of groundwater flow with geological architecture and boundary condition uncertainty under Bayesian paradigm, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 105-119, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.027.

  11. Model averaging, optimal inference and habit formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas H B FitzGerald

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Postulating that the brain performs approximate Bayesian inference generates principled and empirically testable models of neuronal function – the subject of much current interest in neuroscience and related disciplines. Current formulations address inference and learning under some assumed and particular model. In reality, organisms are often faced with an additional challenge – that of determining which model or models of their environment are the best for guiding behaviour. Bayesian model averaging – which says that an agent should weight the predictions of different models according to their evidence – provides a principled way to solve this problem. Importantly, because model evidence is determined by both the accuracy and complexity of the model, optimal inference requires that these be traded off against one another. This means an agent’s behaviour should show an equivalent balance. We hypothesise that Bayesian model averaging plays an important role in cognition, given that it is both optimal and realisable within a plausible neuronal architecture. We outline model averaging and how it might be implemented, and then explore a number of implications for brain and behaviour. In particular, we propose that model averaging can explain a number of apparently suboptimal phenomena within the framework of approximate (bounded Bayesian inference, focussing particularly upon the relationship between goal-directed and habitual behaviour.

  12. Average Bandwidth Allocation Model of WFQ

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Balogh

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a new iterative method for the calculation of average bandwidth assignment to traffic flows using a WFQ scheduler in IP based NGN networks. The bandwidth assignment calculation is based on the link speed, assigned weights, arrival rate, and average packet length or input rate of the traffic flows. We prove the model outcome with examples and simulation results using NS2 simulator.

  13. Essays on model averaging and political economics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, W.

    2013-01-01

    This thesis first investigates various issues related with model averaging, and then evaluates two policies, i.e. West Development Drive in China and fiscal decentralization in U.S, using econometric tools. Chapter 2 proposes a hierarchical weighted least squares (HWALS) method to address multiple

  14. A note on moving average models for Gaussian random fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Linda Vadgård; Thorarinsdottir, Thordis L.

    The class of moving average models offers a flexible modeling framework for Gaussian random fields with many well known models such as the Matérn covariance family and the Gaussian covariance falling under this framework. Moving average models may also be viewed as a kernel smoothing of a Lévy...... basis, a general modeling framework which includes several types of non-Gaussian models. We propose a new one-parameter spatial correlation model which arises from a power kernel and show that the associated Hausdorff dimension of the sample paths can take any value between 2 and 3. As a result...

  15. Online Prediction under Model Uncertainty Via Dynamic Model Averaging: Application to a Cold Rolling Mill

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Raftery, Adrian E; Karny, Miroslav; Andrysek, Josef; Ettler, Pavel

    2007-01-01

    ... is. We develop a method called Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) in which a state space model for the parameters of each model is combined with a Markov chain model for the correct model. This allows the (correct...

  16. Lumped-parameter models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, M.

    2006-12-15

    A lumped-parameter model represents the frequency dependent soil-structure interaction of a massless foundation placed on or embedded into an unbounded soil domain. In this technical report the steps of establishing a lumped-parameter model are presented. Following sections are included in this report: Static and dynamic formulation, Simple lumped-parameter models and Advanced lumped-parameter models. (au)

  17. Borel summability in the disorder parameter of the averaged Green's function for Gaussian disorder

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Constantinescu, F.; Kloeckner, K.; Scharffenberger, U.

    1985-01-01

    In this note we prove Borel summability in the disorder parameter of the averaged Green's function of tight binding models Hsub(v)=-Δ+V with Gaussian disorder. Using this, we can reconstruct the density of states rho(E)sub(γ) from the Borel sums. (orig./WL)

  18. Digital mammography screening: average glandular dose and first performance parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weigel, S.; Girnus, R.; Czwoydzinski, J.; Heindel, W.; Decker, T.; Spital, S.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: The Radiation Protection Commission demanded structured implementation of digital mammography screening in Germany. The main requirements were the installation of digital reference centers and separate evaluation of the fully digitized screening units. Digital mammography screening must meet the quality standards of the European guidelines and must be compared to analog screening results. We analyzed early surrogate indicators of effective screening and dosage levels for the first German digital screening unit in a routine setting after the first half of the initial screening round. Materials and Methods: We used three digital mammography screening units (one full-field digital scanner [DR] and two computed radiography systems [CR]). Each system has been proven to fulfill the requirements of the National and European guidelines. The radiation exposure levels, the medical workflow and the histological results were documented in a central electronic screening record. Results: In the first year 11,413 women were screened (participation rate 57.5 %). The parenchymal dosages for the three mammographic X-ray systems, averaged for the different breast sizes, were 0.7 (DR), 1.3 (CR), 1.5 (CR) mGy. 7 % of the screened women needed to undergo further examinations. The total number of screen-detected cancers was 129 (detection rate 1.1 %). 21 % of the carcinomas were classified as ductal carcinomas in situ, 40 % of the invasive carcinomas had a histological size ≤ 10 mm and 61 % < 15 mm. The frequency distribution of pT-categories of screen-detected cancer was as follows: pTis 20.9 %, pT1 61.2 %, pT2 14.7 %, pT3 2.3 %, pT4 0.8 %. 73 % of the invasive carcinomas were node-negative. (orig.)

  19. Average Nuclear properties based on statistical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Jaick, L.J.

    1974-01-01

    The rough properties of nuclei were investigated by statistical model, in systems with the same and different number of protons and neutrons, separately, considering the Coulomb energy in the last system. Some average nuclear properties were calculated based on the energy density of nuclear matter, from Weizsscker-Beth mass semiempiric formulae, generalized for compressible nuclei. In the study of a s surface energy coefficient, the great influence exercised by Coulomb energy and nuclear compressibility was verified. For a good adjust of beta stability lines and mass excess, the surface symmetry energy were established. (M.C.K.) [pt

  20. Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models for double bounded environmental data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayer, Fábio Mariano; Bayer, Débora Missio; Pumi, Guilherme

    2017-12-01

    In this paper we introduce the Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models (KARMA), which is a dynamic class of models for time series taking values in the double bounded interval (a,b) following the Kumaraswamy distribution. The Kumaraswamy family of distribution is widely applied in many areas, especially hydrology and related fields. Classical examples are time series representing rates and proportions observed over time. In the proposed KARMA model, the median is modeled by a dynamic structure containing autoregressive and moving average terms, time-varying regressors, unknown parameters and a link function. We introduce the new class of models and discuss conditional maximum likelihood estimation, hypothesis testing inference, diagnostic analysis and forecasting. In particular, we provide closed-form expressions for the conditional score vector and conditional Fisher information matrix. An application to environmental real data is presented and discussed.

  1. Bayesian model averaging and weighted average least squares : Equivariance, stability, and numerical issues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Luca, G.; Magnus, J.R.

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we describe the estimation of linear regression models with uncertainty about the choice of the explanatory variables. We introduce the Stata commands bma and wals, which implement, respectively, the exact Bayesian model-averaging estimator and the weighted-average least-squares

  2. Forecasting house prices in the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Møller, Stig Vinther

    2015-01-01

    We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves substantia......We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves...

  3. Post-model selection inference and model averaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georges Nguefack-Tsague

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Although model selection is routinely used in practice nowadays, little is known about its precise effects on any subsequent inference that is carried out. The same goes for the effects induced by the closely related technique of model averaging. This paper is concerned with the use of the same data first to select a model and then to carry out inference, in particular point estimation and point prediction. The properties of the resulting estimator, called a post-model-selection estimator (PMSE, are hard to derive. Using selection criteria such as hypothesis testing, AIC, BIC, HQ and Cp, we illustrate that, in terms of risk function, no single PMSE dominates the others. The same conclusion holds more generally for any penalised likelihood information criterion. We also compare various model averaging schemes and show that no single one dominates the others in terms of risk function. Since PMSEs can be regarded as a special case of model averaging, with 0-1 random-weights, we propose a connection between the two theories, in the frequentist approach, by taking account of the selection procedure when performing model averaging. We illustrate the point by simulating a simple linear regression model.

  4. A benchmark test of computer codes for calculating average resonance parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ribon, P.; Thompson, A.

    1983-01-01

    A set of resonance parameters has been generated from known, but secret, average values; the parameters have then been adjusted to mimic experimental data by including the effects of Doppler broadening, resolution broadening and statistical fluctuations. Average parameters calculated from the dataset by various computer codes are compared with each other, and also with the true values. The benchmark test is fully described in the report NEANDC160-U (NEA Data Bank Newsletter No. 27 July 1982); the present paper is a summary of this document. (Auth.)

  5. Using Bayes Model Averaging for Wind Power Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preede Revheim, Pål; Beyer, Hans Georg

    2014-05-01

    For operational purposes predictions of the forecasts of the lumped output of groups of wind farms spread over larger geographic areas will often be of interest. A naive approach is to make forecasts for each individual site and sum them up to get the group forecast. It is however well documented that a better choice is to use a model that also takes advantage of spatial smoothing effects. It might however be the case that some sites tends to more accurately reflect the total output of the region, either in general or for certain wind directions. It will then be of interest giving these a greater influence over the group forecast. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical post-processing method for producing probabilistic forecasts from ensembles. Raftery et al. [1] show how BMA can be used for statistical post processing of forecast ensembles, producing PDFs of future weather quantities. The BMA predictive PDF of a future weather quantity is a weighted average of the ensemble members' PDFs, where the weights can be interpreted as posterior probabilities and reflect the ensemble members' contribution to overall forecasting skill over a training period. In Revheim and Beyer [2] the BMA procedure used in Sloughter, Gneiting and Raftery [3] were found to produce fairly accurate PDFs for the future mean wind speed of a group of sites from the single sites wind speeds. However, when the procedure was attempted applied to wind power it resulted in either problems with the estimation of the parameters (mainly caused by longer consecutive periods of no power production) or severe underestimation (mainly caused by problems with reflecting the power curve). In this paper the problems that arose when applying BMA to wind power forecasting is met through two strategies. First, the BMA procedure is run with a combination of single site wind speeds and single site wind power production as input. This solves the problem with longer consecutive periods where the input data

  6. Application of Bayesian model averaging to measurements of the primordial power spectrum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parkinson, David; Liddle, Andrew R.

    2010-01-01

    Cosmological parameter uncertainties are often stated assuming a particular model, neglecting the model uncertainty, even when Bayesian model selection is unable to identify a conclusive best model. Bayesian model averaging is a method for assessing parameter uncertainties in situations where there is also uncertainty in the underlying model. We apply model averaging to the estimation of the parameters associated with the primordial power spectra of curvature and tensor perturbations. We use CosmoNest and MultiNest to compute the model evidences and posteriors, using cosmic microwave data from WMAP, ACBAR, BOOMERanG, and CBI, plus large-scale structure data from the SDSS DR7. We find that the model-averaged 95% credible interval for the spectral index using all of the data is 0.940 s s is specified at a pivot scale 0.015 Mpc -1 . For the tensors model averaging can tighten the credible upper limit, depending on prior assumptions.

  7. Average inactivity time model, associated orderings and reliability properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayid, M.; Izadkhah, S.; Abouammoh, A. M.

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we introduce and study a new model called 'average inactivity time model'. This new model is specifically applicable to handle the heterogeneity of the time of the failure of a system in which some inactive items exist. We provide some bounds for the mean average inactivity time of a lifespan unit. In addition, we discuss some dependence structures between the average variable and the mixing variable in the model when original random variable possesses some aging behaviors. Based on the conception of the new model, we introduce and study a new stochastic order. Finally, to illustrate the concept of the model, some interesting reliability problems are reserved.

  8. Effect of parameters in moving average method for event detection enhancement using phase sensitive OTDR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Yong-Seok; Naeem, Khurram; Jeon, Min Yong; Kwon, Il-bum

    2017-04-01

    We analyze the relations of parameters in moving average method to enhance the event detectability of phase sensitive optical time domain reflectometer (OTDR). If the external events have unique frequency of vibration, then the control parameters of moving average method should be optimized in order to detect these events efficiently. A phase sensitive OTDR was implemented by a pulsed light source, which is composed of a laser diode, a semiconductor optical amplifier, an erbium-doped fiber amplifier, a fiber Bragg grating filter, and a light receiving part, which has a photo-detector and high speed data acquisition system. The moving average method is operated with the control parameters: total number of raw traces, M, number of averaged traces, N, and step size of moving, n. The raw traces are obtained by the phase sensitive OTDR with sound signals generated by a speaker. Using these trace data, the relation of the control parameters is analyzed. In the result, if the event signal has one frequency, then the optimal values of N, n are existed to detect the event efficiently.

  9. Analysis and comparison of safety models using average daily, average hourly, and microscopic traffic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ling; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Xuesong; Yu, Rongjie

    2018-02-01

    There have been plenty of traffic safety studies based on average daily traffic (ADT), average hourly traffic (AHT), or microscopic traffic at 5 min intervals. Nevertheless, not enough research has compared the performance of these three types of safety studies, and seldom of previous studies have intended to find whether the results of one type of study is transferable to the other two studies. First, this study built three models: a Bayesian Poisson-lognormal model to estimate the daily crash frequency using ADT, a Bayesian Poisson-lognormal model to estimate the hourly crash frequency using AHT, and a Bayesian logistic regression model for the real-time safety analysis using microscopic traffic. The model results showed that the crash contributing factors found by different models were comparable but not the same. Four variables, i.e., the logarithm of volume, the standard deviation of speed, the logarithm of segment length, and the existence of diverge segment, were positively significant in the three models. Additionally, weaving segments experienced higher daily and hourly crash frequencies than merge and basic segments. Then, each of the ADT-based, AHT-based, and real-time models was used to estimate safety conditions at different levels: daily and hourly, meanwhile, the real-time model was also used in 5 min intervals. The results uncovered that the ADT- and AHT-based safety models performed similar in predicting daily and hourly crash frequencies, and the real-time safety model was able to provide hourly crash frequency. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Approximations for transport parameters and self-averaging properties for point-like injections in heterogeneous media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eberhard, Jens

    2004-01-01

    We focus on transport parameters in heterogeneous media with a flow modelled by an ensemble of periodic and Gaussian random fields. The parameters are determined by ensemble averages. We study to what extent these averages represent the behaviour in a single realization. We calculate the centre-of-mass velocity and the dispersion coefficient using approximations based on a perturbative expansion for the transport equation, and on the iterative solution of the Langevin equation. Compared with simulations, the perturbation theory reproduces the numerical results only poorly, whereas the iterative solution yields good results. Using these approximations, we investigate the self-averaging properties. The ensemble average of the velocity characterizes the behaviour of a realization for large times in both ensembles. The dispersion coefficient is not self-averaging in the ensemble of periodic fields. For the Gaussian ensemble the asymptotic dispersion coefficient is self-averaging. For finite times, however, the fluctuations are so large that the average does not represent the behaviour in a single realization

  11. Accurate phenotyping: Reconciling approaches through Bayesian model averaging.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla Chia-Ming Chen

    Full Text Available Genetic research into complex diseases is frequently hindered by a lack of clear biomarkers for phenotype ascertainment. Phenotypes for such diseases are often identified on the basis of clinically defined criteria; however such criteria may not be suitable for understanding the genetic composition of the diseases. Various statistical approaches have been proposed for phenotype definition; however our previous studies have shown that differences in phenotypes estimated using different approaches have substantial impact on subsequent analyses. Instead of obtaining results based upon a single model, we propose a new method, using Bayesian model averaging to overcome problems associated with phenotype definition. Although Bayesian model averaging has been used in other fields of research, this is the first study that uses Bayesian model averaging to reconcile phenotypes obtained using multiple models. We illustrate the new method by applying it to simulated genetic and phenotypic data for Kofendred personality disorder-an imaginary disease with several sub-types. Two separate statistical methods were used to identify clusters of individuals with distinct phenotypes: latent class analysis and grade of membership. Bayesian model averaging was then used to combine the two clusterings for the purpose of subsequent linkage analyses. We found that causative genetic loci for the disease produced higher LOD scores using model averaging than under either individual model separately. We attribute this improvement to consolidation of the cores of phenotype clusters identified using each individual method.

  12. A spatially-averaged mathematical model of kidney branching morphogenesis

    KAUST Repository

    Zubkov, V.S.

    2015-08-01

    © 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Kidney development is initiated by the outgrowth of an epithelial ureteric bud into a population of mesenchymal cells. Reciprocal morphogenetic responses between these two populations generate a highly branched epithelial ureteric tree with the mesenchyme differentiating into nephrons, the functional units of the kidney. While we understand some of the mechanisms involved, current knowledge fails to explain the variability of organ sizes and nephron endowment in mice and humans. Here we present a spatially-averaged mathematical model of kidney morphogenesis in which the growth of the two key populations is described by a system of time-dependant ordinary differential equations. We assume that branching is symmetric and is invoked when the number of epithelial cells per tip reaches a threshold value. This process continues until the number of mesenchymal cells falls below a critical value that triggers cessation of branching. The mathematical model and its predictions are validated against experimentally quantified C57Bl6 mouse embryonic kidneys. Numerical simulations are performed to determine how the final number of branches changes as key system parameters are varied (such as the growth rate of tip cells, mesenchyme cells, or component cell population exit rate). Our results predict that the developing kidney responds differently to loss of cap and tip cells. They also indicate that the final number of kidney branches is less sensitive to changes in the growth rate of the ureteric tip cells than to changes in the growth rate of the mesenchymal cells. By inference, increasing the growth rate of mesenchymal cells should maximise branch number. Our model also provides a framework for predicting the branching outcome when ureteric tip or mesenchyme cells change behaviour in response to different genetic or environmental developmental stresses.

  13. A spatially-averaged mathematical model of kidney branching morphogenesis

    KAUST Repository

    Zubkov, V.S.; Combes, A.N.; Short, K.M.; Lefevre, J.; Hamilton, N.A.; Smyth, I.M.; Little, M.H.; Byrne, H.M.

    2015-01-01

    © 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Kidney development is initiated by the outgrowth of an epithelial ureteric bud into a population of mesenchymal cells. Reciprocal morphogenetic responses between these two populations generate a highly branched epithelial ureteric tree with the mesenchyme differentiating into nephrons, the functional units of the kidney. While we understand some of the mechanisms involved, current knowledge fails to explain the variability of organ sizes and nephron endowment in mice and humans. Here we present a spatially-averaged mathematical model of kidney morphogenesis in which the growth of the two key populations is described by a system of time-dependant ordinary differential equations. We assume that branching is symmetric and is invoked when the number of epithelial cells per tip reaches a threshold value. This process continues until the number of mesenchymal cells falls below a critical value that triggers cessation of branching. The mathematical model and its predictions are validated against experimentally quantified C57Bl6 mouse embryonic kidneys. Numerical simulations are performed to determine how the final number of branches changes as key system parameters are varied (such as the growth rate of tip cells, mesenchyme cells, or component cell population exit rate). Our results predict that the developing kidney responds differently to loss of cap and tip cells. They also indicate that the final number of kidney branches is less sensitive to changes in the growth rate of the ureteric tip cells than to changes in the growth rate of the mesenchymal cells. By inference, increasing the growth rate of mesenchymal cells should maximise branch number. Our model also provides a framework for predicting the branching outcome when ureteric tip or mesenchyme cells change behaviour in response to different genetic or environmental developmental stresses.

  14. Yearly, seasonal and monthly daily average diffuse sky radiation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kassem, A.S.; Mujahid, A.M.; Turner, D.W.

    1993-01-01

    A daily average diffuse sky radiation regression model based on daily global radiation was developed utilizing two year data taken near Blytheville, Arkansas (Lat. =35.9 0 N, Long. = 89.9 0 W), U.S.A. The model has a determination coefficient of 0.91 and 0.092 standard error of estimate. The data were also analyzed for a seasonal dependence and four seasonal average daily models were developed for the spring, summer, fall and winter seasons. The coefficient of determination is 0.93, 0.81, 0.94 and 0.93, whereas the standard error of estimate is 0.08, 0.102, 0.042 and 0.075 for spring, summer, fall and winter, respectively. A monthly average daily diffuse sky radiation model was also developed. The coefficient of determination is 0.92 and the standard error of estimate is 0.083. A seasonal monthly average model was also developed which has 0.91 coefficient of determination and 0.085 standard error of estimate. The developed monthly daily average and daily models compare well with a selected number of previously developed models. (author). 11 ref., figs., tabs

  15. Influence of Averaging Preprocessing on Image Analysis with a Markov Random Field Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakamoto, Hirotaka; Nakanishi-Ohno, Yoshinori; Okada, Masato

    2018-02-01

    This paper describes our investigations into the influence of averaging preprocessing on the performance of image analysis. Averaging preprocessing involves a trade-off: image averaging is often undertaken to reduce noise while the number of image data available for image analysis is decreased. We formulated a process of generating image data by using a Markov random field (MRF) model to achieve image analysis tasks such as image restoration and hyper-parameter estimation by a Bayesian approach. According to the notions of Bayesian inference, posterior distributions were analyzed to evaluate the influence of averaging. There are three main results. First, we found that the performance of image restoration with a predetermined value for hyper-parameters is invariant regardless of whether averaging is conducted. We then found that the performance of hyper-parameter estimation deteriorates due to averaging. Our analysis of the negative logarithm of the posterior probability, which is called the free energy based on an analogy with statistical mechanics, indicated that the confidence of hyper-parameter estimation remains higher without averaging. Finally, we found that when the hyper-parameters are estimated from the data, the performance of image restoration worsens as averaging is undertaken. We conclude that averaging adversely influences the performance of image analysis through hyper-parameter estimation.

  16. Time Series ARIMA Models of Undergraduate Grade Point Average.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Bruce G.

    The Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Models, often referred to as Box-Jenkins models, are regression methods for analyzing sequential dependent observations with large amounts of data. The Box-Jenkins approach, a three-stage procedure consisting of identification, estimation and diagnosis, was used to select the most appropriate…

  17. Average values of 235U resonance parameters up to 500 eV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leal, L.C.

    1991-01-01

    An R-matrix analysis of 235 U neutron cross sections was recently completed. The analysis was performed with the multilevel-multichannel Reich-Moore computer code SAMMY and extended the resolved resonance region up to 500 eV. Several high resolution measurements namely, transmission, fission and capture data as well as spin separated fission data were analyzed in a consistent manner and a very accurate parametrization up to 500 eV of these data were obtained. The aim of this paper is to present the results of average values of the resonance parameters. 9 refs., 1 tab

  18. Effect of alloy deformation on the average spacing parameters of non-deforming particles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, J.; Gurland, J.

    1980-02-01

    It is shown on the basis of stereological definitions and a few simple experiments that the commonly used average dispersion parameters, area fraction (A/sub A/)/sub β/, areal particle density N/sub Aβ/ and mean free path lambda/sub α/, remain invariant during plastic deformation in the case of non-deforming equiaxed particles. Directional effects on the spacing parameters N/sub Aβ/ and lambda/sub α/ arise during uniaxial deformation by rotation and preferred orientation of nonequiaxed particles. Particle arrangement in stringered or layered structures and the effect of deformation on nearest neighbor distances of particles and voids are briefly discussed in relation to strength and fracture theories

  19. Generalized Empirical Likelihood-Based Focused Information Criterion and Model Averaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naoya Sueishi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops model selection and averaging methods for moment restriction models. We first propose a focused information criterion based on the generalized empirical likelihood estimator. We address the issue of selecting an optimal model, rather than a correct model, for estimating a specific parameter of interest. Then, this study investigates a generalized empirical likelihood-based model averaging estimator that minimizes the asymptotic mean squared error. A simulation study suggests that our averaging estimator can be a useful alternative to existing post-selection estimators.

  20. Analysis of nonlinear systems using ARMA [autoregressive moving average] models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, N.F. Jr.

    1990-01-01

    While many vibration systems exhibit primarily linear behavior, a significant percentage of the systems encountered in vibration and model testing are mildly to severely nonlinear. Analysis methods for such nonlinear systems are not yet well developed and the response of such systems is not accurately predicted by linear models. Nonlinear ARMA (autoregressive moving average) models are one method for the analysis and response prediction of nonlinear vibratory systems. In this paper we review the background of linear and nonlinear ARMA models, and illustrate the application of these models to nonlinear vibration systems. We conclude by summarizing the advantages and disadvantages of ARMA models and emphasizing prospects for future development. 14 refs., 11 figs

  1. Application of autoregressive moving average model in reactor noise analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tran Dinh Tri

    1993-01-01

    The application of an autoregressive (AR) model to estimating noise measurements has achieved many successes in reactor noise analysis in the last ten years. The physical processes that take place in the nuclear reactor, however, are described by an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model rather than by an AR model. Consequently more correct results could be obtained by applying the ARMA model instead of the AR model to reactor noise analysis. In this paper the system of the generalised Yule-Walker equations is derived from the equation of an ARMA model, then a method for its solution is given. Numerical results show the applications of the method proposed. (author)

  2. Research & development and growth: A Bayesian model averaging analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Horváth, Roman

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 28, č. 6 (2011), s. 2669-2673 ISSN 0264-9993. [Society for Non-linear Dynamics and Econometrics Annual Conferencen. Washington DC, 16.03.2011-18.03.2011] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Research and development * Growth * Bayesian model averaging Subject RIV: AH - Economic s Impact factor: 0.701, year: 2011 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/E/horvath-research & development and growth a bayesian model averaging analysis.pdf

  3. Airborne-Measured Spatially-Averaged Temperature and Moisture Turbulent Structure Parameters Over a Heterogeneous Surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platis, Andreas; Martinez, Daniel; Bange, Jens

    2014-05-01

    Turbulent structure parameters of temperature and humidity can be derived from scintillometer measurements along horizontal paths of several 100 m to several 10 km. These parameters can be very useful to estimate the vertical turbulent heat fluxes at the surface (applying MOST). However, there are many assumptions required by this method which can be checked using in situ data, e.g. 1) Were CT2 and CQ2 correctly derived from the initial CN2 scintillometer data (structure parameter of density fluctuations or refraction index, respectively)? 2) What is the influence of the surround hetereogeneous surface regarding its footprint and the weighted averaging effect of the scintillometer method 3) Does MOST provide the correct turbulent fluxes from scintillometer data. To check these issues, in situ data from low-level flight measurements are well suited, since research aircraft cover horizontal distances in very short time (Taylor's hypothesis of a frozen turbulence structure can be applyed very likely). From airborne-measured time series the spatial series are calculated and then their structure functions that finally provide the structure parameters. The influence of the heterogeneous surface can be controlled by the definition of certain moving-average window sizes. A very useful instrument for this task are UAVs since they can fly very low and maintain altitude very precisely. However, the data base of such unmanned operations is still quite thin. So in this contribution we want to present turbulence data obtained with the Helipod, a turbulence probe hanging below a manned helicopter. The structure parameters of temperature and moisture, CT2 and CQ2, in the lower convective boundary layer were derived from data measured using the Helipod in 2003. The measurements were carried out during the LITFASS03 campaign over a heterogeneous land surface around the boundary-layer field site of the Lindenberg Meteorological Observatory-Richard-Aßmann-Observatory (MOL) of the

  4. Reproducing multi-model ensemble average with Ensemble-averaged Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) in regional climate modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.; Wang, G.

    2016-12-01

    Multi-model ensemble (MME) average is considered the most reliable for simulating both present-day and future climates. It has been a primary reference for making conclusions in major coordinated studies i.e. IPCC Assessment Reports and CORDEX. The biases of individual models cancel out each other in MME average, enabling the ensemble mean to outperform individual members in simulating the mean climate. This enhancement however comes with tremendous computational cost, which is especially inhibiting for regional climate modeling as model uncertainties can originate from both RCMs and the driving GCMs. Here we propose the Ensemble-based Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) approach to regional climate modeling that achieves a similar level of bias reduction at a fraction of cost compared with the conventional MME approach. The new method constructs a single set of initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) by averaging the IBCs of multiple GCMs, and drives the RCM with this ensemble average of IBCs to conduct a single run. Using a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5), we tested the method over West Africa for multiple combination of (up to six) GCMs. Our results indicate that the performance of the ERF method is comparable to that of the MME average in simulating the mean climate. The bias reduction seen in ERF simulations is achieved by using more realistic IBCs in solving the system of equations underlying the RCM physics and dynamics. This endows the new method with a theoretical advantage in addition to reducing computational cost. The ERF output is an unaltered solution of the RCM as opposed to a climate state that might not be physically plausible due to the averaging of multiple solutions with the conventional MME approach. The ERF approach should be considered for use in major international efforts such as CORDEX. Key words: Multi-model ensemble, ensemble analysis, ERF, regional climate modeling

  5. A collisional-radiative average atom model for hot plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rozsnyai, B.F.

    1996-01-01

    A collisional-radiative 'average atom' (AA) model is presented for the calculation of opacities of hot plasmas not in the condition of local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE). The electron impact and radiative rate constants are calculated using the dipole oscillator strengths of the average atom. A key element of the model is the photon escape probability which at present is calculated for a semi infinite slab. The Fermi statistics renders the rate equation for the AA level occupancies nonlinear, which requires iterations until the steady state. AA level occupancies are found. Detailed electronic configurations are built into the model after the self-consistent non-LTE AA state is found. The model shows a continuous transition from the non-LTE to the LTE state depending on the optical thickness of the plasma. 22 refs., 13 figs., 1 tab

  6. A depth semi-averaged model for coastal dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antuono, M.; Colicchio, G.; Lugni, C.; Greco, M.; Brocchini, M.

    2017-05-01

    The present work extends the semi-integrated method proposed by Antuono and Brocchini ["Beyond Boussinesq-type equations: Semi-integrated models for coastal dynamics," Phys. Fluids 25(1), 016603 (2013)], which comprises a subset of depth-averaged equations (similar to Boussinesq-like models) and a Poisson equation that accounts for vertical dynamics. Here, the subset of depth-averaged equations has been reshaped in a conservative-like form and both the Poisson equation formulations proposed by Antuono and Brocchini ["Beyond Boussinesq-type equations: Semi-integrated models for coastal dynamics," Phys. Fluids 25(1), 016603 (2013)] are investigated: the former uses the vertical velocity component (formulation A) and the latter a specific depth semi-averaged variable, ϒ (formulation B). Our analyses reveal that formulation A is prone to instabilities as wave nonlinearity increases. On the contrary, formulation B allows an accurate, robust numerical implementation. Test cases derived from the scientific literature on Boussinesq-type models—i.e., solitary and Stokes wave analytical solutions for linear dispersion and nonlinear evolution and experimental data for shoaling properties—are used to assess the proposed solution strategy. It is found that the present method gives reliable predictions of wave propagation in shallow to intermediate waters, in terms of both semi-averaged variables and conservation properties.

  7. Bayesian Model Averaging in the Presence of Structural Breaks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F. Ravazzolo (Francesco); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick); R. Paap (Richard); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractThis paper develops a return forecasting methodology that allows for instabil ity in the relationship between stock returns and predictor variables, for model uncertainty, and for parameter estimation uncertainty. The predictive regres sion speci¯cation that is put forward allows for

  8. Modeling methane emission via the infinite moving average process

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jordanova, D.; Dušek, Jiří; Stehlík, M.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 122, - (2013), s. 40-49 ISSN 0169-7439 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073; GA ČR(CZ) GAP504/11/1151 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Environmental chemistry * Pareto tails * t-Hill estimator * Weak consistency * Moving average process * Methane emission model Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.381, year: 2013

  9. Macroeconomic Forecasts in Models with Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Białowolski

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to construct a forecasting model oriented on predicting basic macroeconomic variables, namely: the GDP growth rate, the unemployment rate, and the consumer price inflation. In order to select the set of the best regressors, Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimators (BACE is employed. The models are atheoretical (i.e. they do not reflect causal relationships postulated by the macroeconomic theory and the role of regressors is played by business and consumer tendency survey-based indicators. Additionally, survey-based indicators are included with a lag that enables to forecast the variables of interest (GDP, unemployment, and inflation for the four forthcoming quarters without the need to make any additional assumptions concerning the values of predictor variables in the forecast period.  Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimators is a method allowing for full and controlled overview of all econometric models which can be obtained out of a particular set of regressors. In this paper authors describe the method of generating a family of econometric models and the procedure for selection of a final forecasting model. Verification of the procedure is performed by means of out-of-sample forecasts of main economic variables for the quarters of 2011. The accuracy of the forecasts implies that there is still a need to search for new solutions in the atheoretical modelling.

  10. Optimizing Prediction Using Bayesian Model Averaging: Examples Using Large-Scale Educational Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David; Lee, Chansoon

    2018-01-01

    This article provides a review of Bayesian model averaging as a means of optimizing the predictive performance of common statistical models applied to large-scale educational assessments. The Bayesian framework recognizes that in addition to parameter uncertainty, there is uncertainty in the choice of models themselves. A Bayesian approach to addressing the problem of model uncertainty is the method of Bayesian model averaging. Bayesian model averaging searches the space of possible models for a set of submodels that satisfy certain scientific principles and then averages the coefficients across these submodels weighted by each model's posterior model probability (PMP). Using the weighted coefficients for prediction has been shown to yield optimal predictive performance according to certain scoring rules. We demonstrate the utility of Bayesian model averaging for prediction in education research with three examples: Bayesian regression analysis, Bayesian logistic regression, and a recently developed approach for Bayesian structural equation modeling. In each case, the model-averaged estimates are shown to yield better prediction of the outcome of interest than any submodel based on predictive coverage and the log-score rule. Implications for the design of large-scale assessments when the goal is optimal prediction in a policy context are discussed.

  11. Modeling and Forecasting Average Temperature for Weather Derivative Pricing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiliang Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to present a feasible model for the daily average temperature on the area of Zhengzhou and apply it to weather derivatives pricing. We start by exploring the background of weather derivatives market and then use the 62 years of daily historical data to apply the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to describe the evolution of the temperature. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are used to price heating degree day (HDD call option for this city, and the slow convergence of the price of the HDD call can be found through taking 100,000 simulations. The methods of the research will provide a frame work for modeling temperature and pricing weather derivatives in other similar places in China.

  12. Zonally averaged chemical-dynamical model of the lower thermosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasting, J.F.; Roble, R.G.

    1981-01-01

    A zonally averaged numerical model of the thermosphere is used to examine the coupling between neutral composition, including N 2 , O 2 and O, temperature, and winds at solstice for solar minimum conditions. The meridional circulation forced by solar heating results in a summer-to-winter flow, with a winter enhancement in atomic oxygen density that is a factor of about 1.8 greater than the summer hemisphere at 160 km. The O 2 and N 2 variations are associated with a latitudinal gradient in total number density, which is required to achieve pressure balance in the presence of large zonal jets. Latitudinal profiles OI (5577A) green line emission intensity are calculated by using both Chapman and Barth mechanisms. Composition of the lower thermosphere is shown to be strongly influenced by circulation patterns initiated in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere, below the lower boundary used in the model

  13. Ensemble bayesian model averaging using markov chain Monte Carlo sampling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vrugt, Jasper A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Diks, Cees G H [NON LANL; Clark, Martyn P [NON LANL

    2008-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has recently been proposed as a statistical method to calibrate forecast ensembles from numerical weather models. Successful implementation of BMA however, requires accurate estimates of the weights and variances of the individual competing models in the ensemble. In their seminal paper (Raftery etal. Mon Weather Rev 133: 1155-1174, 2(05)) has recommended the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for BMA model training, even though global convergence of this algorithm cannot be guaranteed. In this paper, we compare the performance of the EM algorithm and the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating the BMA weights and variances. Simulation experiments using 48-hour ensemble data of surface temperature and multi-model stream-flow forecasts show that both methods produce similar results, and that their performance is unaffected by the length of the training data set. However, MCMC simulation with DREAM is capable of efficiently handling a wide variety of BMA predictive distributions, and provides useful information about the uncertainty associated with the estimated BMA weights and variances.

  14. Photovoltaic module parameters acquisition model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cibira, Gabriel, E-mail: cibira@lm.uniza.sk; Koščová, Marcela, E-mail: mkoscova@lm.uniza.sk

    2014-09-01

    Highlights: • Photovoltaic five-parameter model is proposed using Matlab{sup ®} and Simulink. • The model acquisits input sparse data matrix from stigmatic measurement. • Computer simulations lead to continuous I–V and P–V characteristics. • Extrapolated I–V and P–V characteristics are in hand. • The model allows us to predict photovoltaics exploitation in different conditions. - Abstract: This paper presents basic procedures for photovoltaic (PV) module parameters acquisition using MATLAB and Simulink modelling. In first step, MATLAB and Simulink theoretical model are set to calculate I–V and P–V characteristics for PV module based on equivalent electrical circuit. Then, limited I–V data string is obtained from examined PV module using standard measurement equipment at standard irradiation and temperature conditions and stated into MATLAB data matrix as a reference model. Next, the theoretical model is optimized to keep-up with the reference model and to learn its basic parameters relations, over sparse data matrix. Finally, PV module parameters are deliverable for acquisition at different realistic irradiation, temperature conditions as well as series resistance. Besides of output power characteristics and efficiency calculation for PV module or system, proposed model validates computing statistical deviation compared to reference model.

  15. Photovoltaic module parameters acquisition model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cibira, Gabriel; Koščová, Marcela

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Photovoltaic five-parameter model is proposed using Matlab ® and Simulink. • The model acquisits input sparse data matrix from stigmatic measurement. • Computer simulations lead to continuous I–V and P–V characteristics. • Extrapolated I–V and P–V characteristics are in hand. • The model allows us to predict photovoltaics exploitation in different conditions. - Abstract: This paper presents basic procedures for photovoltaic (PV) module parameters acquisition using MATLAB and Simulink modelling. In first step, MATLAB and Simulink theoretical model are set to calculate I–V and P–V characteristics for PV module based on equivalent electrical circuit. Then, limited I–V data string is obtained from examined PV module using standard measurement equipment at standard irradiation and temperature conditions and stated into MATLAB data matrix as a reference model. Next, the theoretical model is optimized to keep-up with the reference model and to learn its basic parameters relations, over sparse data matrix. Finally, PV module parameters are deliverable for acquisition at different realistic irradiation, temperature conditions as well as series resistance. Besides of output power characteristics and efficiency calculation for PV module or system, proposed model validates computing statistical deviation compared to reference model

  16. An Invariance Property for the Maximum Likelihood Estimator of the Parameters of a Gaussian Moving Average Process

    OpenAIRE

    Godolphin, E. J.

    1980-01-01

    It is shown that the estimation procedure of Walker leads to estimates of the parameters of a Gaussian moving average process which are asymptotically equivalent to the maximum likelihood estimates proposed by Whittle and represented by Godolphin.

  17. Analysis of litter size and average litter weight in pigs using a recursive model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Varona, Luis; Sorensen, Daniel; Thompson, Robin

    2007-01-01

    An analysis of litter size and average piglet weight at birth in Landrace and Yorkshire using a standard two-trait mixed model (SMM) and a recursive mixed model (RMM) is presented. The RMM establishes a one-way link from litter size to average piglet weight. It is shown that there is a one......-to-one correspondence between the parameters of SMM and RMM and that they generate equivalent likelihoods. As parameterized in this work, the RMM tests for the presence of a recursive relationship between additive genetic values, permanent environmental effects, and specific environmental effects of litter size......, on average piglet weight. The equivalent standard mixed model tests whether or not the covariance matrices of the random effects have a diagonal structure. In Landrace, posterior predictive model checking supports a model without any form of recursion or, alternatively, a SMM with diagonal covariance...

  18. The dynamics of multimodal integration: The averaging diffusion model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Brandon M; Gao, Juan; Koenig, Scott; Palfy, Dylan; L McClelland, James

    2017-12-01

    We combine extant theories of evidence accumulation and multi-modal integration to develop an integrated framework for modeling multimodal integration as a process that unfolds in real time. Many studies have formulated sensory processing as a dynamic process where noisy samples of evidence are accumulated until a decision is made. However, these studies are often limited to a single sensory modality. Studies of multimodal stimulus integration have focused on how best to combine different sources of information to elicit a judgment. These studies are often limited to a single time point, typically after the integration process has occurred. We address these limitations by combining the two approaches. Experimentally, we present data that allow us to study the time course of evidence accumulation within each of the visual and auditory domains as well as in a bimodal condition. Theoretically, we develop a new Averaging Diffusion Model in which the decision variable is the mean rather than the sum of evidence samples and use it as a base for comparing three alternative models of multimodal integration, allowing us to assess the optimality of this integration. The outcome reveals rich individual differences in multimodal integration: while some subjects' data are consistent with adaptive optimal integration, reweighting sources of evidence as their relative reliability changes during evidence integration, others exhibit patterns inconsistent with optimality.

  19. The flattening of the average potential in models with fermions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bornholdt, S.

    1993-01-01

    The average potential is a scale dependent scalar effective potential. In a phase with spontaneous symmetry breaking its inner region becomes flat as the averaging extends over infinite volume and the average potential approaches the convex effective potential. Fermion fluctuations affect the shape of the average potential in this region and its flattening with decreasing physical scale. They have to be taken into account to find the true minimum of the scalar potential which determines the scale of spontaneous symmetry breaking. (orig.)

  20. Forecasting Kp from solar wind data: input parameter study using 3-hour averages and 3-hour range values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wintoft, Peter; Wik, Magnus; Matzka, Jürgen; Shprits, Yuri

    2017-11-01

    We have developed neural network models that predict Kp from upstream solar wind data. We study the importance of various input parameters, starting with the magnetic component Bz, particle density n, and velocity V and then adding total field B and the By component. As we also notice a seasonal and UT variation in average Kp we include functions of day-of-year and UT. Finally, as Kp is a global representation of the maximum range of geomagnetic variation over 3-hour UT intervals we conclude that sudden changes in the solar wind can have a big effect on Kp, even though it is a 3-hour value. Therefore, 3-hour solar wind averages will not always appropriately represent the solar wind condition, and we introduce 3-hour maxima and minima values to some degree address this problem. We find that introducing total field B and 3-hour maxima and minima, derived from 1-minute solar wind data, have a great influence on the performance. Due to the low number of samples for high Kp values there can be considerable variation in predicted Kp for different networks with similar validation errors. We address this issue by using an ensemble of networks from which we use the median predicted Kp. The models (ensemble of networks) provide prediction lead times in the range 20-90 min given by the time it takes a solar wind structure to travel from L1 to Earth. Two models are implemented that can be run with real time data: (1) IRF-Kp-2017-h3 uses the 3-hour averages of the solar wind data and (2) IRF-Kp-2017 uses in addition to the averages, also the minima and maxima values. The IRF-Kp-2017 model has RMS error of 0.55 and linear correlation of 0.92 based on an independent test set with final Kp covering 2 years using ACE Level 2 data. The IRF-Kp-2017-h3 model has RMSE = 0.63 and correlation = 0.89. We also explore the errors when tested on another two-year period with real-time ACE data which gives RMSE = 0.59 for IRF-Kp-2017 and RMSE = 0.73 for IRF-Kp-2017-h3. The errors as function

  1. Evaluation of subject contrast and normalized average glandular dose by semi-analytical models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomal, A.; Poletti, M.E.; Caldas, L.V.E.

    2010-01-01

    In this work, two semi-analytical models are described to evaluate the subject contrast of nodules and the normalized average glandular dose in mammography. Both models were used to study the influence of some parameters, such as breast characteristics (thickness and composition) and incident spectra (kVp and target-filter combination) on the subject contrast of a nodule and on the normalized average glandular dose. From the subject contrast results, detection limits of nodules were also determined. Our results are in good agreement with those reported by other authors, who had used Monte Carlo simulation, showing the robustness of our semi-analytical method.

  2. Electricity demand loads modeling using AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pappas, S.S. [Department of Information and Communication Systems Engineering, University of the Aegean, Karlovassi, 83 200 Samos (Greece); Ekonomou, L.; Chatzarakis, G.E. [Department of Electrical Engineering Educators, ASPETE - School of Pedagogical and Technological Education, N. Heraklion, 141 21 Athens (Greece); Karamousantas, D.C. [Technological Educational Institute of Kalamata, Antikalamos, 24100 Kalamata (Greece); Katsikas, S.K. [Department of Technology Education and Digital Systems, University of Piraeus, 150 Androutsou Srt., 18 532 Piraeus (Greece); Liatsis, P. [Division of Electrical Electronic and Information Engineering, School of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences, Information and Biomedical Engineering Centre, City University, Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB (United Kingdom)

    2008-09-15

    This study addresses the problem of modeling the electricity demand loads in Greece. The provided actual load data is deseasonilized and an AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) model is fitted on the data off-line, using the Akaike Corrected Information Criterion (AICC). The developed model fits the data in a successful manner. Difficulties occur when the provided data includes noise or errors and also when an on-line/adaptive modeling is required. In both cases and under the assumption that the provided data can be represented by an ARMA model, simultaneous order and parameter estimation of ARMA models under the presence of noise are performed. The produced results indicate that the proposed method, which is based on the multi-model partitioning theory, tackles successfully the studied problem. For validation purposes the produced results are compared with three other established order selection criteria, namely AICC, Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz's Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The developed model could be useful in the studies that concern electricity consumption and electricity prices forecasts. (author)

  3. Choice of initial operating parameters for high average current linear accelerators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batchelor, K.

    1976-01-01

    In designing an accelerator for high currents it is evident that beam losses in the machine must be minimized, which implies well matched beams, and that adequate acceptance under severe space charge conditions must be met. This paper investigates the input parameters to an Alvarez type drift-tube accelerator resulting from such factors

  4. The lumped parameter model for fuel pins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, W S [Ontario Hydro, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    1996-12-31

    The use of a lumped fuel-pin model in a thermal-hydraulic code is advantageous because of computational simplicity and efficiency. The model uses an averaging approach over the fuel cross section and makes some simplifying assumptions to describe the transient equations for the averaged fuel, fuel centerline and sheath temperatures. It is shown that by introducing a factor in the effective fuel conductivity, the analytical solution of the mean fuel temperature can be modified to simulate the effects of the flux depression in the heat generation rate and the variation in fuel thermal conductivity. The simplified analytical method used in the transient equation is presented. The accuracy of the lumped parameter model has been compared with the results from the finite difference method. (author). 4 refs., 2 tabs., 4 figs.

  5. Focused information criterion and model averaging based on weighted composite quantile regression

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Ganggang

    2013-08-13

    We study the focused information criterion and frequentist model averaging and their application to post-model-selection inference for weighted composite quantile regression (WCQR) in the context of the additive partial linear models. With the non-parametric functions approximated by polynomial splines, we show that, under certain conditions, the asymptotic distribution of the frequentist model averaging WCQR-estimator of a focused parameter is a non-linear mixture of normal distributions. This asymptotic distribution is used to construct confidence intervals that achieve the nominal coverage probability. With properly chosen weights, the focused information criterion based WCQR estimators are not only robust to outliers and non-normal residuals but also can achieve efficiency close to the maximum likelihood estimator, without assuming the true error distribution. Simulation studies and a real data analysis are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed procedure. © 2013 Board of the Foundation of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics..

  6. An averaged polarizable potential for multiscale modeling in phospholipid membranes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Witzke, Sarah; List, Nanna Holmgaard; Olsen, Jógvan Magnus Haugaard

    2017-01-01

    A set of average atom-centered charges and polarizabilities has been developed for three types of phospholipids for use in polarizable embedding calculations. The lipids investigated are 1,2-dimyristoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine, 1-palmitoyl-2-oleoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine, and 1-palmitoyl...

  7. Choice of initial operating parameters for high average current linear accelerators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batchelor, K.

    1976-01-01

    Recent emphasis on alternative energy sources together with the need for intense neutron sources for testing of materials for CTR has resulted in renewed interest in high current (approximately 100 mA) c.w. proton and deuteron linear accelerators. In desinging an accelerator for such high currents, it is evident that beam losses in the machine must be minimized, which implies well matched beams, and that adequate acceptance under severe space charge conditions must be met. An investigation is presented of the input parameters to an Alvarez type drift-tube accelerator resulting from such factors. The analysis indicates that an accelerator operating at a frequency of 50 MHz is capable of accepting deuteron currents of about 0.4 amperes and proton currents of about 1.2 amperes. These values depend critically on the assumed values of beam emittance and on the ability to properly ''match'' this to the linac acceptance

  8. Impact-parameter-averaged probability of 3dσ - Vacancy sharing in heavy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marble, D.K.; McDaniel, F.D.; Zoran, V.; Szilagyi, Z.; Piticu, I.; Fluerasu, D.; Enulescu, A.; Dumitriu, D.; Bucur, B.I.; Ciortea, C.

    1993-01-01

    The probabilities for the 3dσ molecular vacancy sharing in the 0.08 - 1.75 MeV/u F, Co, Ni, Cu + Bi collisions have been estimated by using integral X-ray spectrum measurement. The analytic two-state exponential model of Nikitin has been applied to 3dσ -2p 3/2 vacancy sharing in these collisions systems. This describes satisfactory the velocity dependence at low energies, < 0.5 MeV/u, but around 1 MeV/u the velocity dependence changes its character, indicating departure from the hypotheses of the model. (Author)

  9. Stochastic modelling of the monthly average maximum and minimum temperature patterns in India 1981-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narasimha Murthy, K. V.; Saravana, R.; Vijaya Kumar, K.

    2018-04-01

    The paper investigates the stochastic modelling and forecasting of monthly average maximum and minimum temperature patterns through suitable seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model for the period 1981-2015 in India. The variations and distributions of monthly maximum and minimum temperatures are analyzed through Box plots and cumulative distribution functions. The time series plot indicates that the maximum temperature series contain sharp peaks in almost all the years, while it is not true for the minimum temperature series, so both the series are modelled separately. The possible SARIMA model has been chosen based on observing autocorrelation function (ACF), partial autocorrelation function (PACF), and inverse autocorrelation function (IACF) of the logarithmic transformed temperature series. The SARIMA (1, 0, 0) × (0, 1, 1)12 model is selected for monthly average maximum and minimum temperature series based on minimum Bayesian information criteria. The model parameters are obtained using maximum-likelihood method with the help of standard error of residuals. The adequacy of the selected model is determined using correlation diagnostic checking through ACF, PACF, IACF, and p values of Ljung-Box test statistic of residuals and using normal diagnostic checking through the kernel and normal density curves of histogram and Q-Q plot. Finally, the forecasting of monthly maximum and minimum temperature patterns of India for the next 3 years has been noticed with the help of selected model.

  10. Generalized Heteroskedasticity ACF for Moving Average Models in Explicit Forms

    OpenAIRE

    Samir Khaled Safi

    2014-01-01

    The autocorrelation function (ACF) measures the correlation between observations at different   distances apart. We derive explicit equations for generalized heteroskedasticity ACF for moving average of order q, MA(q). We consider two cases: Firstly: when the disturbance term follow the general covariance matrix structure Cov(wi, wj)=S with si,j ¹ 0 " i¹j . Secondly: when the diagonal elements of S are not all identical but sij = 0 " i¹j, i.e. S=diag(s11, s22,&hellip...

  11. Average intensity and spreading of partially coherent model beams propagating in a turbulent biological tissue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Yuqian; Zhang, Yixin; Wang, Qiu; Hu, Zhengda

    2016-01-01

    For Gaussian beams with three different partially coherent models, including Gaussian-Schell model (GSM), Laguerre-Gaussian Schell-model (LGSM) and Bessel-Gaussian Schell-model (BGSM) beams propagating through a biological turbulent tissue, the expression of the spatial coherence radius of a spherical wave propagating in a turbulent biological tissue, and the average intensity and beam spreading for GSM, LGSM and BGSM beams are derived based on the fractal model of power spectrum of refractive-index variations in biological tissue. Effects of partially coherent model and parameters of biological turbulence on such beams are studied in numerical simulations. Our results reveal that the spreading of GSM beams is smaller than LGSM and BGSM beams on the same conditions, and the beam with larger source coherence width has smaller beam spreading than that with smaller coherence width. The results are useful for any applications involved light beam propagation through tissues, especially the cases where the average intensity and spreading properties of the light should be taken into account to evaluate the system performance and investigations in the structures of biological tissue. - Highlights: • Spatial coherence radius of a spherical wave propagating in a turbulent biological tissue is developed. • Expressions of average intensity and beam spreading for GSM, LGSM and BGSM beams in a turbulent biological tissue are derived. • The contrast for the three partially coherent model beams is shown in numerical simulations. • The results are useful for any applications involved light beam propagation through tissues.

  12. Generalized Heteroskedasticity ACF for Moving Average Models in Explicit Forms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samir Khaled Safi

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 The autocorrelation function (ACF measures the correlation between observations at different   distances apart. We derive explicit equations for generalized heteroskedasticity ACF for moving average of order q, MA(q. We consider two cases: Firstly: when the disturbance term follow the general covariance matrix structure Cov(wi, wj=S with si,j ¹ 0 " i¹j . Secondly: when the diagonal elements of S are not all identical but sij = 0 " i¹j, i.e. S=diag(s11, s22,…,stt. The forms of the explicit equations depend essentially on the moving average coefficients and covariance structure of the disturbance terms.   /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"جدول عادي"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;}

  13. Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam’s Window*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onorante, Luca; Raftery, Adrian E.

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam’s window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods. PMID:26917859

  14. Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam's Window.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onorante, Luca; Raftery, Adrian E

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam's window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods.

  15. Determining Time-Varying Drivers of Spot Oil Price in a Dynamic Model Averaging Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Drachal

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This article presents results from modelling spot oil prices by Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA. First, based on a literature review and availability of data, the following oil price drivers have been selected: stock prices indices, stock prices volatility index, exchange rates, global economic activity, interest rates, supply and demand indicators and inventories level. Next, they have been included as explanatory variables in various DMA models with different initial parameters. Monthly data between January 1986 and December 2015 has been analyzed. Several variations of DMA models have been constructed, because DMA requires the initial setting of certain parameters. Interestingly, DMA has occurred to be robust to setting different values to these parameters. It has also occurred that the quality of prediction is the highest for the model with the drivers solely connected with the stock markets behavior. Drivers connected with macroeconomic fundamental indicators have not been found so important. This observation can serve as an argument favoring the hypothesis of the increasing financialization of the oil market, at least in the short-term period. The predictions from other, slightly different modelling variations based on DMA methodology, have happened to be consistent with each other in general. Many constructed models have outperformed alternative forecasting methods. It has also been found that normalization of the initial data, although not necessary for DMA from the theoretical point of view, significantly improves the quality of prediction.

  16. Corporate Average Fuel Economy Compliance and Effects Modeling System Documentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-04-01

    The Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe Center) of the United States Department of Transportation's Research and Innovative Technology Administration has developed a modeling system to assist the National Highway Traffic Safety Admini...

  17. Bayesian averaging over Decision Tree models for trauma severity scoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schetinin, V; Jakaite, L; Krzanowski, W

    2018-01-01

    Health care practitioners analyse possible risks of misleading decisions and need to estimate and quantify uncertainty in predictions. We have examined the "gold" standard of screening a patient's conditions for predicting survival probability, based on logistic regression modelling, which is used in trauma care for clinical purposes and quality audit. This methodology is based on theoretical assumptions about data and uncertainties. Models induced within such an approach have exposed a number of problems, providing unexplained fluctuation of predicted survival and low accuracy of estimating uncertainty intervals within which predictions are made. Bayesian method, which in theory is capable of providing accurate predictions and uncertainty estimates, has been adopted in our study using Decision Tree models. Our approach has been tested on a large set of patients registered in the US National Trauma Data Bank and has outperformed the standard method in terms of prediction accuracy, thereby providing practitioners with accurate estimates of the predictive posterior densities of interest that are required for making risk-aware decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Evidence on Features of a DSGE Business Cycle Model from Bayesian Model Averaging

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.W. Strachan (Rodney); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThe empirical support for features of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with two technology shocks is valuated using Bayesian model averaging over vector autoregressions. The model features include equilibria, restrictions on long-run responses, a structural break of unknown

  19. Rf system modeling for the high average power FEL at CEBAF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merminga, L.; Fugitt, J.; Neil, G.; Simrock, S.

    1995-01-01

    High beam loading and energy recovery compounded by use of superconducting cavities, which requires tight control of microphonic noise, place stringent constraints on the linac rf system design of the proposed high average power FEL at CEBAF. Longitudinal dynamics imposes off-crest operation, which in turn implies a large tuning angle to minimize power requirements. Amplitude and phase stability requirements are consistent with demonstrated performance at CEBAF. A numerical model of the CEBAF rf control system is presented and the response of the system is examined under large parameter variations, microphonic noise, and beam current fluctuations. Studies of the transient behavior lead to a plausible startup and recovery scenario

  20. Averaging principle for second-order approximation of heterogeneous models with homogeneous models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fibich, Gadi; Gavious, Arieh; Solan, Eilon

    2012-11-27

    Typically, models with a heterogeneous property are considerably harder to analyze than the corresponding homogeneous models, in which the heterogeneous property is replaced by its average value. In this study we show that any outcome of a heterogeneous model that satisfies the two properties of differentiability and symmetry is O(ε(2)) equivalent to the outcome of the corresponding homogeneous model, where ε is the level of heterogeneity. We then use this averaging principle to obtain new results in queuing theory, game theory (auctions), and social networks (marketing).

  1. Averaging principle for second-order approximation of heterogeneous models with homogeneous models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fibich, Gadi; Gavious, Arieh; Solan, Eilon

    2012-01-01

    Typically, models with a heterogeneous property are considerably harder to analyze than the corresponding homogeneous models, in which the heterogeneous property is replaced by its average value. In this study we show that any outcome of a heterogeneous model that satisfies the two properties of differentiability and symmetry is O(ɛ2) equivalent to the outcome of the corresponding homogeneous model, where ɛ is the level of heterogeneity. We then use this averaging principle to obtain new results in queuing theory, game theory (auctions), and social networks (marketing). PMID:23150569

  2. Bayesian Model Averaging of Artificial Intelligence Models for Hydraulic Conductivity Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadiri, A.; Chitsazan, N.; Tsai, F. T.; Asghari Moghaddam, A.

    2012-12-01

    This research presents a Bayesian artificial intelligence model averaging (BAIMA) method that incorporates multiple artificial intelligence (AI) models to estimate hydraulic conductivity and evaluate estimation uncertainties. Uncertainty in the AI model outputs stems from error in model input as well as non-uniqueness in selecting different AI methods. Using one single AI model tends to bias the estimation and underestimate uncertainty. BAIMA employs Bayesian model averaging (BMA) technique to address the issue of using one single AI model for estimation. BAIMA estimates hydraulic conductivity by averaging the outputs of AI models according to their model weights. In this study, the model weights were determined using the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) that follows the parsimony principle. BAIMA calculates the within-model variances to account for uncertainty propagation from input data to AI model output. Between-model variances are evaluated to account for uncertainty due to model non-uniqueness. We employed Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy logic (TS-FL), artificial neural network (ANN) and neurofuzzy (NF) to estimate hydraulic conductivity for the Tasuj plain aquifer, Iran. BAIMA combined three AI models and produced better fitting than individual models. While NF was expected to be the best AI model owing to its utilization of both TS-FL and ANN models, the NF model is nearly discarded by the parsimony principle. The TS-FL model and the ANN model showed equal importance although their hydraulic conductivity estimates were quite different. This resulted in significant between-model variances that are normally ignored by using one AI model.

  3. Extending a Consensus-based Fuzzy Ordered Weighting Average (FOWA Model in New Water Quality Indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ali Baghapour

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In developing a specific WQI (Water Quality Index, many water quality parameters are involved with different levels of importance. The impact of experts’ different opinions and viewpoints, current risks affecting their opinions, and plurality of the involved parameters double the significance of the issue. Hence, the current study tries to apply a consensus-based FOWA (Fuzzy Ordered Weighting Average model as one of the most powerful and well-known Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM techniques to determine the importance of the used parameters in the development of such WQIs which is shown with an example. This operator has provided the capability of modeling the risks in decision-making through applying the optimistic degree of stakeholders and their power coupled with the use of fuzzy numbers. Totally, 22 water quality parameters for drinking purposes are considered in this study. To determine the weight of each parameter, the viewpoints of 4 decision-making groups of experts are taken into account. After determining the final weights, to validate the use of each parameter in a potential WQI, consensus degrees of both the decision makers and the parameters are calculated. All calculations are carried out by using the expertise software called Group Fuzzy Decision Making (GFDM. The highest and the lowest weight values, 0.999 and 0.073 respectively, are related to Hg and temperature. Regarding the type of consumption that is drinking, the parameters’ weights and ranks are consistent with their health impacts. Moreover, the decision makers’ highest and lowest consensus degrees were 0.9905 and 0.9669, respectively. Among the water quality parameters, temperature (with consensus degree of 0.9972 and Pb (with consensus degree of 0.9665, received the highest and lowest agreement from the decision making group. This study indicates that the weight of parameters in determining water quality largely depends on the experts’ opinions and

  4. Extending a Consensus-based Fuzzy Ordered Weighting Average (FOWA Model in New Water Quality Indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ali Baghapour

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In developing a specific WQI (Water Quality Index, many quality parameters are involved with different levels of importance. The impact of experts’ different opinions and viewpoints, current risks affecting their opinions, and plurality of the involved parameters double the significance of the issue. Hence, the current study tries to apply a consensus-based FOWA (Fuzzy Ordered Weighting Average model as one of the most powerful and well-known Multi-Criteria Decision- Making (MCDM techniques to determine the importance of the used parameters in the development of such WQIs which is shown with an example. This operator has provided the capability of modeling the risks in decision-making through applying the optimistic degree of stakeholders and their power coupled with the use of fuzzy numbers. Totally, 22 water quality parameters for drinking purposes were considered in this study. To determine the weight of each parameter, the viewpoints of 4 decision-making groups of experts were taken into account. After determining the final weights, to validate the use of each parameter in a potential WQI, consensus degrees of both the decision makers and the parameters are calculated. The highest and the lowest weight values, 0.999 and 0.073 respectively, were related to Hg and temperature. Regarding the type of consumption that was drinking, the parameters’ weights and ranks were consistent with their health impacts. Moreover, the decision makers’ highest and lowest consensus degrees were 0.9905 and 0.9669, respectively. Among the water quality parameters, temperature (with consensus degree of 0.9972 and Pb (with consensus degree of 0.9665, received the highest and lowest agreement with the decision-making group. This study indicated that the weight of parameters in determining water quality largely depends on the experts’ opinions and approaches. Moreover, using the FOWA model provides results accurate and closer- to-reality on the significance of

  5. Bayesian model averaging using particle filtering and Gaussian mixture modeling : Theory, concepts, and simulation experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rings, J.; Vrugt, J.A.; Schoups, G.; Huisman, J.A.; Vereecken, H.

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a standard method for combining predictive distributions from different models. In recent years, this method has enjoyed widespread application and use in many fields of study to improve the spread-skill relationship of forecast ensembles. The BMA predictive

  6. Numerical Analysis of a Small-Size Vertical-Axis Wind Turbine Performance and Averaged Flow Parameters Around the Rotor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rogowski Krzysztof

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Small-scale vertical-axis wind turbines can be used as a source of electricity in rural and urban environments. According to the authors’ knowledge, there are no validated simplified aerodynamic models of these wind turbines, therefore the use of more advanced techniques, such as for example the computational methods for fluid dynamics is justified. The paper contains performance analysis of the small-scale vertical-axis wind turbine with a large solidity. The averaged velocity field and the averaged static pressure distribution around the rotor have been also analyzed. All numerical results presented in this paper are obtained using the SST k-ω turbulence model. Computed power coeffcients are in good agreement with the experimental results. A small change in the tip speed ratio significantly affects the velocity field. Obtained velocity fields can be further used as a base for simplified aerodynamic methods.

  7. Forecasting Rice Productivity and Production of Odisha, India, Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahul Tripathi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting of rice area, production, and productivity of Odisha was made from the historical data of 1950-51 to 2008-09 by using univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA models and was compared with the forecasted all Indian data. The autoregressive (p and moving average (q parameters were identified based on the significant spikes in the plots of partial autocorrelation function (PACF and autocorrelation function (ACF of the different time series. ARIMA (2, 1, 0 model was found suitable for all Indian rice productivity and production, whereas ARIMA (1, 1, 1 was best fitted for forecasting of rice productivity and production in Odisha. Prediction was made for the immediate next three years, that is, 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10, using the best fitted ARIMA models based on minimum value of the selection criterion, that is, Akaike information criteria (AIC and Schwarz-Bayesian information criteria (SBC. The performances of models were validated by comparing with percentage deviation from the actual values and mean absolute percent error (MAPE, which was found to be 0.61 and 2.99% for the area under rice in Odisha and India, respectively. Similarly for prediction of rice production and productivity in Odisha and India, the MAPE was found to be less than 6%.

  8. Regionalization of SWAT Model Parameters for Use in Ungauged Watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrajeet Chaubey

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available There has been a steady shift towards modeling and model-based approaches as primary methods of assessing watershed response to hydrologic inputs and land management, and of quantifying watershed-wide best management practice (BMP effectiveness. Watershed models often require some degree of calibration and validation to achieve adequate watershed and therefore BMP representation. This is, however, only possible for gauged watersheds. There are many watersheds for which there are very little or no monitoring data available, thus the question as to whether it would be possible to extend and/or generalize model parameters obtained through calibration of gauged watersheds to ungauged watersheds within the same region. This study explored the possibility of developing regionalized model parameter sets for use in ungauged watersheds. The study evaluated two regionalization methods: global averaging, and regression-based parameters, on the SWAT model using data from priority watersheds in Arkansas. Resulting parameters were tested and model performance determined on three gauged watersheds. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NS for stream flow obtained using regression-based parameters (0.53–0.83 compared well with corresponding values obtained through model calibration (0.45–0.90. Model performance obtained using global averaged parameter values was also generally acceptable (0.4 ≤ NS ≤ 0.75. Results from this study indicate that regionalized parameter sets for the SWAT model can be obtained and used for making satisfactory hydrologic response predictions in ungauged watersheds.

  9. Real-time traffic signal optimization model based on average delay time per person

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengpeng Jiao

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Real-time traffic signal control is very important for relieving urban traffic congestion. Many existing traffic control models were formulated using optimization approach, with the objective functions of minimizing vehicle delay time. To improve people’s trip efficiency, this article aims to minimize delay time per person. Based on the time-varying traffic flow data at intersections, the article first fits curves of accumulative arrival and departure vehicles, as well as the corresponding functions. Moreover, this article transfers vehicle delay time to personal delay time using average passenger load of cars and buses, employs such time as the objective function, and proposes a signal timing optimization model for intersections to achieve real-time signal parameters, including cycle length and green time. This research further implements a case study based on practical data collected at an intersection in Beijing, China. The average delay time per person and queue length are employed as evaluation indices to show the performances of the model. The results show that the proposed methodology is capable of improving traffic efficiency and is very effective for real-world applications.

  10. Average and dispersion of the luminosity-redshift relation in the concordance model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ben-Dayan, I. [DESY Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Gasperini, M. [Bari Univ. (Italy). Dipt. di Fisica; Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Bari (Italy); Marozzi, G. [College de France, 75 - Paris (France); Geneve Univ. (Switzerland). Dept. de Physique Theorique and CAP; Nugier, F. [Ecole Normale Superieure CNRS, Paris (France). Laboratoire de Physique Theorique; Veneziano, G. [College de France, 75 - Paris (France); CERN, Geneva (Switzerland). Physics Dept.; New York Univ., NY (United States). Dept. of Physics

    2013-03-15

    Starting from the luminosity-redshift relation recently given up to second order in the Poisson gauge, we calculate the effects of the realistic stochastic background of perturbations of the so-called concordance model on the combined light-cone and ensemble average of various functions of the luminosity distance, and on their variance, as functions of redshift. We apply a gauge-invariant light-cone averaging prescription which is free from infrared and ultraviolet divergences, making our results robust with respect to changes of the corresponding cutoffs. Our main conclusions, in part already anticipated in a recent letter for the case of a perturbation spectrum computed in the linear regime, are that such inhomogeneities not only cannot avoid the need for dark energy, but also cannot prevent, in principle, the determination of its parameters down to an accuracy of order 10{sup -3} - 10{sup -5}, depending on the averaged observable and on the regime considered for the power spectrum. However, taking into account the appropriate corrections arising in the non-linear regime, we predict an irreducible scatter of the data approaching the 10% level which, for limited statistics, will necessarily limit the attainable precision. The predicted dispersion appears to be in good agreement with current observational estimates of the distance-modulus variance due to Doppler and lensing effects (at low and high redshifts, respectively), and represents a challenge for future precision measurements.

  11. Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Modeling of Turbulent Free Shear Layers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Oleg

    2017-11-01

    Turbulent mixing of gases in free shear layers is simulated using a weighted essentially nonoscillatory implementation of ɛ- and L-based Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes models. Specifically, the air/air shear layer with velocity ratio 0.6 studied experimentally by Bell and Mehta (1990) is modeled. The detailed predictions of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate and lengthscale models are compared to one another, and to the experimental data. The role of analytical, self-similar solutions for model calibration and physical insights is also discussed. It is shown that turbulent lengthscale-based models are unable to predict both the growth parameter (spreading rate) and turbulent kinetic energy normalized by the square of the velocity difference of the streams. The terms in the K, ɛ, and L equation budgets are compared between the models, and it is shown that the production and destruction mechanisms are substantially different in the ɛ and L equations. Application of the turbulence models to the Brown and Roshko (1974) experiments with streams having various velocity and density ratios is also briefly discussed. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  12. Modeling and forecasting monthly movement of annual average solar insolation based on the least-squares Fourier-model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Zong-Chang

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Introduce a finite Fourier-series model for evaluating monthly movement of annual average solar insolation. • Present a forecast method for predicting its movement based on the extended Fourier-series model in the least-squares. • Shown its movement is well described by a low numbers of harmonics with approximately 6-term Fourier series. • Predict its movement most fitting with less than 6-term Fourier series. - Abstract: Solar insolation is one of the most important measurement parameters in many fields. Modeling and forecasting monthly movement of annual average solar insolation is of increasingly importance in areas of engineering, science and economics. In this study, Fourier-analysis employing finite Fourier-series is proposed for evaluating monthly movement of annual average solar insolation and extended in the least-squares for forecasting. The conventional Fourier analysis, which is the most common analysis method in the frequency domain, cannot be directly applied for prediction. Incorporated with the least-square method, the introduced Fourier-series model is extended to predict its movement. The extended Fourier-series forecasting model obtains its optimums Fourier coefficients in the least-square sense based on its previous monthly movements. The proposed method is applied to experiments and yields satisfying results in the different cities (states). It is indicated that monthly movement of annual average solar insolation is well described by a low numbers of harmonics with approximately 6-term Fourier series. The extended Fourier forecasting model predicts the monthly movement of annual average solar insolation most fitting with less than 6-term Fourier series

  13. Focused information criterion and model averaging based on weighted composite quantile regression

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Ganggang; Wang, Suojin; Huang, Jianhua Z.

    2013-01-01

    We study the focused information criterion and frequentist model averaging and their application to post-model-selection inference for weighted composite quantile regression (WCQR) in the context of the additive partial linear models. With the non

  14. Maximum-likelihood model averaging to profile clustering of site types across discrete linear sequences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Zhang

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available A major analytical challenge in computational biology is the detection and description of clusters of specified site types, such as polymorphic or substituted sites within DNA or protein sequences. Progress has been stymied by a lack of suitable methods to detect clusters and to estimate the extent of clustering in discrete linear sequences, particularly when there is no a priori specification of cluster size or cluster count. Here we derive and demonstrate a maximum likelihood method of hierarchical clustering. Our method incorporates a tripartite divide-and-conquer strategy that models sequence heterogeneity, delineates clusters, and yields a profile of the level of clustering associated with each site. The clustering model may be evaluated via model selection using the Akaike Information Criterion, the corrected Akaike Information Criterion, and the Bayesian Information Criterion. Furthermore, model averaging using weighted model likelihoods may be applied to incorporate model uncertainty into the profile of heterogeneity across sites. We evaluated our method by examining its performance on a number of simulated datasets as well as on empirical polymorphism data from diverse natural alleles of the Drosophila alcohol dehydrogenase gene. Our method yielded greater power for the detection of clustered sites across a breadth of parameter ranges, and achieved better accuracy and precision of estimation of clusters, than did the existing empirical cumulative distribution function statistics.

  15. Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xun, Xiaolei; Cao, Jiguo; Mallick, Bani; Carroll, Raymond J; Maity, Arnab

    2013-01-01

    Partial differential equation (PDE) models are commonly used to model complex dynamic systems in applied sciences such as biology and finance. The forms of these PDE models are usually proposed by experts based on their prior knowledge and understanding of the dynamic system. Parameters in PDE models often have interesting scientific interpretations, but their values are often unknown, and need to be estimated from the measurements of the dynamic system in the present of measurement errors. Most PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus the computational load is high. In this article, we propose two methods to estimate parameters in PDE models: a parameter cascading method and a Bayesian approach. In both methods, the underlying dynamic process modeled with the PDE model is represented via basis function expansion. For the parameter cascading method, we develop two nested levels of optimization to estimate the PDE parameters. For the Bayesian method, we develop a joint model for data and the PDE, and develop a novel hierarchical model allowing us to employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to make posterior inference. Simulation studies show that the Bayesian method and parameter cascading method are comparable, and both outperform other available methods in terms of estimation accuracy. The two methods are demonstrated by estimating parameters in a PDE model from LIDAR data.

  16. Quality assessment for radiological model parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Funtowicz, S.O.

    1989-01-01

    A prototype framework for representing uncertainties in radiological model parameters is introduced. This follows earlier development in this journal of a corresponding framework for representing uncertainties in radiological data. Refinements and extensions to the earlier framework are needed in order to take account of the additional contextual factors consequent on using data entries to quantify model parameters. The parameter coding can in turn feed in to methods for evaluating uncertainties in calculated model outputs. (author)

  17. Estimation of Model's Marginal likelihood Using Adaptive Sparse Grid Surrogates in Bayesian Model Averaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, X.

    2015-12-01

    A large number of model executions are required to obtain alternative conceptual models' predictions and their posterior probabilities in Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The posterior model probability is estimated through models' marginal likelihood and prior probability. The heavy computation burden hinders the implementation of BMA prediction, especially for the elaborated marginal likelihood estimator. For overcoming the computation burden of BMA, an adaptive sparse grid (SG) stochastic collocation method is used to build surrogates for alternative conceptual models through the numerical experiment of a synthetical groundwater model. BMA predictions depend on model posterior weights (or marginal likelihoods), and this study also evaluated four marginal likelihood estimators, including arithmetic mean estimator (AME), harmonic mean estimator (HME), stabilized harmonic mean estimator (SHME), and thermodynamic integration estimator (TIE). The results demonstrate that TIE is accurate in estimating conceptual models' marginal likelihoods. The BMA-TIE has better predictive performance than other BMA predictions. TIE has high stability for estimating conceptual model's marginal likelihood. The repeated estimated conceptual model's marginal likelihoods by TIE have significant less variability than that estimated by other estimators. In addition, the SG surrogates are efficient to facilitate BMA predictions, especially for BMA-TIE. The number of model executions needed for building surrogates is 4.13%, 6.89%, 3.44%, and 0.43% of the required model executions of BMA-AME, BMA-HME, BMA-SHME, and BMA-TIE, respectively.

  18. Forecast of sea surface temperature off the Peruvian coast using an autoregressive integrated moving average model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Quispe

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available El Niño connects globally climate, ecosystems and socio-economic activities. Since 1980 this event has been tried to be predicted, but until now the statistical and dynamical models are insuffi cient. Thus, the objective of the present work was to explore using an autoregressive moving average model the effect of El Niño over the sea surface temperature (TSM off the Peruvian coast. The work involved 5 stages: identifi cation, estimation, diagnostic checking, forecasting and validation. Simple and partial autocorrelation functions (FAC and FACP were used to identify and reformulate the orders of the model parameters, as well as Akaike information criterium (AIC and Schwarz criterium (SC for the selection of the best models during the diagnostic checking. Among the main results the models ARIMA(12,0,11 were proposed, which simulated monthly conditions in agreement with the observed conditions off the Peruvian coast: cold conditions at the end of 2004, and neutral conditions at the beginning of 2005.

  19. Waif goodbye! Average-size female models promote positive body image and appeal to consumers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diedrichs, Phillippa C; Lee, Christina

    2011-10-01

    Despite consensus that exposure to media images of thin fashion models is associated with poor body image and disordered eating behaviours, few attempts have been made to enact change in the media. This study sought to investigate an effective alternative to current media imagery, by exploring the advertising effectiveness of average-size female fashion models, and their impact on the body image of both women and men. A sample of 171 women and 120 men were assigned to one of three advertisement conditions: no models, thin models and average-size models. Women and men rated average-size models as equally effective in advertisements as thin and no models. For women with average and high levels of internalisation of cultural beauty ideals, exposure to average-size female models was associated with a significantly more positive body image state in comparison to exposure to thin models and no models. For men reporting high levels of internalisation, exposure to average-size models was also associated with a more positive body image state in comparison to viewing thin models. These findings suggest that average-size female models can promote positive body image and appeal to consumers.

  20. Comparison of power pulses from homogeneous and time-average-equivalent models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De, T.K.; Rouben, B.

    1995-01-01

    The time-average-equivalent model is an 'instantaneous' core model designed to reproduce the same three dimensional power distribution as that generated by a time-average model. However it has been found that the time-average-equivalent model gives a full-core static void reactivity about 8% smaller than the time-average or homogeneous models. To investigate the consequences of this difference in static void reactivity in time dependent calculations, simulations of the power pulse following a hypothetical large-loss-of-coolant accident were performed with a homogeneous model and compared with the power pulse from the time-average-equivalent model. The results show that there is a much smaller difference in peak dynamic reactivity than in static void reactivity between the two models. This is attributed to the fact that voiding is not complete, but also to the retardation effect of the delayed-neutron precursors on the dynamic flux shape. The difference in peak reactivity between the models is 0.06 milli-k. The power pulses are essentially the same in the two models, because the delayed-neutron fraction in the time-average-equivalent model is lower than in the homogeneous model, which compensates for the lower void reactivity in the time-average-equivalent model. (author). 1 ref., 5 tabs., 9 figs

  1. Establishing statistical models of manufacturing parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senevat, J.; Pape, J.L.; Deshayes, J.F.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on the effect of pilgering and cold-work parameters on contractile strain ratio and mechanical properties that were investigated using a large population of Zircaloy tubes. Statistical models were established between: contractile strain ratio and tooling parameters, mechanical properties (tensile test, creep test) and cold-work parameters, and mechanical properties and stress-relieving temperature

  2. Robust estimation of hydrological model parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bárdossy

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of hydrological model parameters is a challenging task. With increasing capacity of computational power several complex optimization algorithms have emerged, but none of the algorithms gives a unique and very best parameter vector. The parameters of fitted hydrological models depend upon the input data. The quality of input data cannot be assured as there may be measurement errors for both input and state variables. In this study a methodology has been developed to find a set of robust parameter vectors for a hydrological model. To see the effect of observational error on parameters, stochastically generated synthetic measurement errors were applied to observed discharge and temperature data. With this modified data, the model was calibrated and the effect of measurement errors on parameters was analysed. It was found that the measurement errors have a significant effect on the best performing parameter vector. The erroneous data led to very different optimal parameter vectors. To overcome this problem and to find a set of robust parameter vectors, a geometrical approach based on Tukey's half space depth was used. The depth of the set of N randomly generated parameters was calculated with respect to the set with the best model performance (Nash-Sutclife efficiency was used for this study for each parameter vector. Based on the depth of parameter vectors, one can find a set of robust parameter vectors. The results show that the parameters chosen according to the above criteria have low sensitivity and perform well when transfered to a different time period. The method is demonstrated on the upper Neckar catchment in Germany. The conceptual HBV model was used for this study.

  3. Model parameter updating using Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Treml, C.A.; Ross, Timothy J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper outlines a model parameter updating technique for a new method of model validation using a modified model reference adaptive control (MRAC) framework with Bayesian Networks (BNs). The model parameter updating within this method is generic in the sense that the model/simulation to be validated is treated as a black box. It must have updateable parameters to which its outputs are sensitive, and those outputs must have metrics that can be compared to that of the model reference, i.e., experimental data. Furthermore, no assumptions are made about the statistics of the model parameter uncertainty, only upper and lower bounds need to be specified. This method is designed for situations where a model is not intended to predict a complete point-by-point time domain description of the item/system behavior; rather, there are specific points, features, or events of interest that need to be predicted. These specific points are compared to the model reference derived from actual experimental data. The logic for updating the model parameters to match the model reference is formed via a BN. The nodes of this BN consist of updateable model input parameters and the specific output values or features of interest. Each time the model is executed, the input/output pairs are used to adapt the conditional probabilities of the BN. Each iteration further refines the inferred model parameters to produce the desired model output. After parameter updating is complete and model inputs are inferred, reliabilities for the model output are supplied. Finally, this method is applied to a simulation of a resonance control cooling system for a prototype coupled cavity linac. The results are compared to experimental data.

  4. Econometric modelling of Serbian current account determinants: Jackknife Model Averaging approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Predrag

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to model Serbian current account determinants for the period Q1 2002 - Q4 2012. Taking into account the majority of relevant determinants, using the Jackknife Model Averaging approach, 48 different models have been estimated, where 1254 equations needed to be estimated and averaged for each of the models. The results of selected representative models indicate moderate persistence of the CA and positive influence of: fiscal balance, oil trade balance, terms of trade, relative income and real effective exchange rates, where we should emphasise: (i a rather strong influence of relative income, (ii the fact that the worsening of oil trade balance results in worsening of other components (probably non-oil trade balance of CA and (iii that the positive influence of terms of trade reveals functionality of the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect in Serbia. On the other hand, negative influence is evident in case of: relative economic growth, gross fixed capital formation, net foreign assets and trade openness. What particularly stands out is the strong effect of relative economic growth that, most likely, reveals high citizens' future income growth expectations, which has negative impact on the CA.

  5. Comparison of depth-averaged concentration and bed load flux sediment transport models of dam-break flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia-heng Zhao

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents numerical simulations of dam-break flow over a movable bed. Two different mathematical models were compared: a fully coupled formulation of shallow water equations with erosion and deposition terms (a depth-averaged concentration flux model, and shallow water equations with a fully coupled Exner equation (a bed load flux model. Both models were discretized using the cell-centered finite volume method, and a second-order Godunov-type scheme was used to solve the equations. The numerical flux was calculated using a Harten, Lax, and van Leer approximate Riemann solver with the contact wave restored (HLLC. A novel slope source term treatment that considers the density change was introduced to the depth-averaged concentration flux model to obtain higher-order accuracy. A source term that accounts for the sediment flux was added to the bed load flux model to reflect the influence of sediment movement on the momentum of the water. In a one-dimensional test case, a sensitivity study on different model parameters was carried out. For the depth-averaged concentration flux model, Manning's coefficient and sediment porosity values showed an almost linear relationship with the bottom change, and for the bed load flux model, the sediment porosity was identified as the most sensitive parameter. The capabilities and limitations of both model concepts are demonstrated in a benchmark experimental test case dealing with dam-break flow over variable bed topography.

  6. Forecast Accuracy and Economic Gains from Bayesian Model Averaging using Time Varying Weights

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.F. Hoogerheide (Lennart); R.H. Kleijn (Richard); H.K. van Dijk (Herman); M.J.C.M. Verbeek (Marno)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractSeveral Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy and economic gains using financial and macroeconomic time

  7. On parameter estimation in deformable models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fisker, Rune; Carstensen, Jens Michael

    1998-01-01

    Deformable templates have been intensively studied in image analysis through the last decade, but despite its significance the estimation of model parameters has received little attention. We present a method for supervised and unsupervised model parameter estimation using a general Bayesian form...

  8. Predicting water main failures using Bayesian model averaging and survival modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kabir, Golam; Tesfamariam, Solomon; Sadiq, Rehan

    2015-01-01

    To develop an effective preventive or proactive repair and replacement action plan, water utilities often rely on water main failure prediction models. However, in predicting the failure of water mains, uncertainty is inherent regardless of the quality and quantity of data used in the model. To improve the understanding of water main failure, a Bayesian framework is developed for predicting the failure of water mains considering uncertainties. In this study, Bayesian model averaging method (BMA) is presented to identify the influential pipe-dependent and time-dependent covariates considering model uncertainties whereas Bayesian Weibull Proportional Hazard Model (BWPHM) is applied to develop the survival curves and to predict the failure rates of water mains. To accredit the proposed framework, it is implemented to predict the failure of cast iron (CI) and ductile iron (DI) pipes of the water distribution network of the City of Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Results indicate that the predicted 95% uncertainty bounds of the proposed BWPHMs capture effectively the observed breaks for both CI and DI water mains. Moreover, the performance of the proposed BWPHMs are better compare to the Cox-Proportional Hazard Model (Cox-PHM) for considering Weibull distribution for the baseline hazard function and model uncertainties. - Highlights: • Prioritize rehabilitation and replacements (R/R) strategies of water mains. • Consider the uncertainties for the failure prediction. • Improve the prediction capability of the water mains failure models. • Identify the influential and appropriate covariates for different models. • Determine the effects of the covariates on failure

  9. Large deviations of a long-time average in the Ehrenfest urn model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meerson, Baruch; Zilber, Pini

    2018-05-01

    Since its inception in 1907, the Ehrenfest urn model (EUM) has served as a test bed of key concepts of statistical mechanics. Here we employ this model to study large deviations of a time-additive quantity. We consider two continuous-time versions of the EUM with K urns and N balls: with and without interactions between the balls in the same urn. We evaluate the probability distribution that the average number of balls in one urn over time T, , takes any specified value aN, where . For long observation time, , a Donsker–Varadhan large deviation principle holds: , where … denote additional parameters of the model. We calculate the rate function exactly by two different methods due to Donsker and Varadhan and compare the exact results with those obtained with a variant of WKB approximation (after Wentzel, Kramers and Brillouin). In the absence of interactions the WKB prediction for is exact for any N. In the presence of interactions the WKB method gives asymptotically exact results for . The WKB method also uncovers the (very simple) time history of the system which dominates the contribution of different time histories to .

  10. Parameter identification in multinomial processing tree models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmittmann, V.D.; Dolan, C.V.; Raijmakers, M.E.J.; Batchelder, W.H.

    2010-01-01

    Multinomial processing tree models form a popular class of statistical models for categorical data that have applications in various areas of psychological research. As in all statistical models, establishing which parameters are identified is necessary for model inference and selection on the basis

  11. Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models

    KAUST Repository

    Xun, Xiaolei

    2013-09-01

    Partial differential equation (PDE) models are commonly used to model complex dynamic systems in applied sciences such as biology and finance. The forms of these PDE models are usually proposed by experts based on their prior knowledge and understanding of the dynamic system. Parameters in PDE models often have interesting scientific interpretations, but their values are often unknown and need to be estimated from the measurements of the dynamic system in the presence of measurement errors. Most PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus the computational load is high. In this article, we propose two methods to estimate parameters in PDE models: a parameter cascading method and a Bayesian approach. In both methods, the underlying dynamic process modeled with the PDE model is represented via basis function expansion. For the parameter cascading method, we develop two nested levels of optimization to estimate the PDE parameters. For the Bayesian method, we develop a joint model for data and the PDE and develop a novel hierarchical model allowing us to employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to make posterior inference. Simulation studies show that the Bayesian method and parameter cascading method are comparable, and both outperform other available methods in terms of estimation accuracy. The two methods are demonstrated by estimating parameters in a PDE model from long-range infrared light detection and ranging data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 American Statistical Association.

  12. GI Joe or Average Joe? The impact of average-size and muscular male fashion models on men's and women's body image and advertisement effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diedrichs, Phillippa C; Lee, Christina

    2010-06-01

    Increasing body size and shape diversity in media imagery may promote positive body image. While research has largely focused on female models and women's body image, men may also be affected by unrealistic images. We examined the impact of average-size and muscular male fashion models on men's and women's body image and perceived advertisement effectiveness. A sample of 330 men and 289 women viewed one of four advertisement conditions: no models, muscular, average-slim or average-large models. Men and women rated average-size models as equally effective in advertisements as muscular models. For men, exposure to average-size models was associated with more positive body image in comparison to viewing no models, but no difference was found in comparison to muscular models. Similar results were found for women. Internalisation of beauty ideals did not moderate these effects. These findings suggest that average-size male models can promote positive body image and appeal to consumers. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. PARAMETER ESTIMATION IN BREAD BAKING MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hadiyanto Hadiyanto

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Bread product quality is highly dependent to the baking process. A model for the development of product quality, which was obtained by using quantitative and qualitative relationships, was calibrated by experiments at a fixed baking temperature of 200°C alone and in combination with 100 W microwave powers. The model parameters were estimated in a stepwise procedure i.e. first, heat and mass transfer related parameters, then the parameters related to product transformations and finally product quality parameters. There was a fair agreement between the calibrated model results and the experimental data. The results showed that the applied simple qualitative relationships for quality performed above expectation. Furthermore, it was confirmed that the microwave input is most meaningful for the internal product properties and not for the surface properties as crispness and color. The model with adjusted parameters was applied in a quality driven food process design procedure to derive a dynamic operation pattern, which was subsequently tested experimentally to calibrate the model. Despite the limited calibration with fixed operation settings, the model predicted well on the behavior under dynamic convective operation and on combined convective and microwave operation. It was expected that the suitability between model and baking system could be improved further by performing calibration experiments at higher temperature and various microwave power levels.  Abstrak  PERKIRAAN PARAMETER DALAM MODEL UNTUK PROSES BAKING ROTI. Kualitas produk roti sangat tergantung pada proses baking yang digunakan. Suatu model yang telah dikembangkan dengan metode kualitatif dan kuantitaif telah dikalibrasi dengan percobaan pada temperatur 200oC dan dengan kombinasi dengan mikrowave pada 100 Watt. Parameter-parameter model diestimasi dengan prosedur bertahap yaitu pertama, parameter pada model perpindahan masa dan panas, parameter pada model transformasi, dan

  14. A comparative analysis of 9 multi-model averaging approaches in hydrological continuous streamflow simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsenault, Richard; Gatien, Philippe; Renaud, Benoit; Brissette, François; Martel, Jean-Luc

    2015-10-01

    This study aims to test whether a weighted combination of several hydrological models can simulate flows more accurately than the models taken individually. In addition, the project attempts to identify the most efficient model averaging method and the optimal number of models to include in the weighting scheme. In order to address the first objective, streamflow was simulated using four lumped hydrological models (HSAMI, HMETS, MOHYSE and GR4J-6), each of which were calibrated with three different objective functions on 429 watersheds. The resulting 12 hydrographs (4 models × 3 metrics) were weighted and combined with the help of 9 averaging methods which are the simple arithmetic mean (SAM), Akaike information criterion (AICA), Bates-Granger (BGA), Bayes information criterion (BICA), Bayesian model averaging (BMA), Granger-Ramanathan average variant A, B and C (GRA, GRB and GRC) and the average by SCE-UA optimization (SCA). The same weights were then applied to the hydrographs in validation mode, and the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency metric was measured between the averaged and observed hydrographs. Statistical analyses were performed to compare the accuracy of weighted methods to that of individual models. A Kruskal-Wallis test and a multi-objective optimization algorithm were then used to identify the most efficient weighted method and the optimal number of models to integrate. Results suggest that the GRA, GRB, GRC and SCA weighted methods perform better than the individual members. Model averaging from these four methods were superior to the best of the individual members in 76% of the cases. Optimal combinations on all watersheds included at least one of each of the four hydrological models. None of the optimal combinations included all members of the ensemble of 12 hydrographs. The Granger-Ramanathan average variant C (GRC) is recommended as the best compromise between accuracy, speed of execution, and simplicity.

  15. Model averaging in the presence of structural uncertainty about treatment effects: influence on treatment decision and expected value of information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Malcolm J; Welton, Nicky J; Briggs, Andrew H; Ades, A E

    2011-01-01

    Standard approaches to estimation of Markov models with data from randomized controlled trials tend either to make a judgment about which transition(s) treatments act on, or they assume that treatment has a separate effect on every transition. An alternative is to fit a series of models that assume that treatment acts on specific transitions. Investigators can then choose among alternative models using goodness-of-fit statistics. However, structural uncertainty about any chosen parameterization will remain and this may have implications for the resulting decision and the need for further research. We describe a Bayesian approach to model estimation, and model selection. Structural uncertainty about which parameterization to use is accounted for using model averaging and we developed a formula for calculating the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) in averaged models. Marginal posterior distributions are generated for each of the cost-effectiveness parameters using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation in WinBUGS, or Monte-Carlo simulation in Excel (Microsoft Corp., Redmond, WA). We illustrate the approach with an example of treatments for asthma using aggregate-level data from a connected network of four treatments compared in three pair-wise randomized controlled trials. The standard errors of incremental net benefit using structured models is reduced by up to eight- or ninefold compared to the unstructured models, and the expected loss attaching to decision uncertainty by factors of several hundreds. Model averaging had considerable influence on the EVPI. Alternative structural assumptions can alter the treatment decision and have an overwhelming effect on model uncertainty and expected value of information. Structural uncertainty can be accounted for by model averaging, and the EVPI can be calculated for averaged models. Copyright © 2011 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

  16. Parameter identification in the logistic STAR model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekner, Line Elvstrøm; Nejstgaard, Emil

    We propose a new and simple parametrization of the so-called speed of transition parameter of the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model. The new parametrization highlights that a consequence of the well-known identification problem of the speed of transition parameter is that th...

  17. Exploiting intrinsic fluctuations to identify model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmer, Christoph; Sahle, Sven; Pahle, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    Parameterisation of kinetic models plays a central role in computational systems biology. Besides the lack of experimental data of high enough quality, some of the biggest challenges here are identification issues. Model parameters can be structurally non-identifiable because of functional relationships. Noise in measured data is usually considered to be a nuisance for parameter estimation. However, it turns out that intrinsic fluctuations in particle numbers can make parameters identifiable that were previously non-identifiable. The authors present a method to identify model parameters that are structurally non-identifiable in a deterministic framework. The method takes time course recordings of biochemical systems in steady state or transient state as input. Often a functional relationship between parameters presents itself by a one-dimensional manifold in parameter space containing parameter sets of optimal goodness. Although the system's behaviour cannot be distinguished on this manifold in a deterministic framework it might be distinguishable in a stochastic modelling framework. Their method exploits this by using an objective function that includes a measure for fluctuations in particle numbers. They show on three example models, immigration-death, gene expression and Epo-EpoReceptor interaction, that this resolves the non-identifiability even in the case of measurement noise with known amplitude. The method is applied to partially observed recordings of biochemical systems with measurement noise. It is simple to implement and it is usually very fast to compute. This optimisation can be realised in a classical or Bayesian fashion.

  18. Setting Parameters for Biological Models With ANIMO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schivo, Stefano; Scholma, Jetse; Karperien, Hermanus Bernardus Johannes; Post, Janine Nicole; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Langerak, Romanus; André, Étienne; Frehse, Goran

    2014-01-01

    ANIMO (Analysis of Networks with Interactive MOdeling) is a software for modeling biological networks, such as e.g. signaling, metabolic or gene networks. An ANIMO model is essentially the sum of a network topology and a number of interaction parameters. The topology describes the interactions

  19. Determination of average molecular parameters of vacuum residues and asphalt by elementary analysis and 1 H NMR and comparison with 13 C NMR results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teixeira, Marco Antonio; Marques, Rosana Garrido

    1995-01-01

    This work proposes a new approach for determining average molecular parameters in petroleum fractions, from some approximation based on consideration about average composition of petroleum heavy fractions. A comparative evaluation between the proposed method and the traditional one has been carried out, showing 60 hours saving in time spent at analysis. The results were present and discussed

  20. Parameters and error of a theoretical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, P.; Nix, J.R.; Swiatecki, W.

    1986-09-01

    We propose a definition for the error of a theoretical model of the type whose parameters are determined from adjustment to experimental data. By applying a standard statistical method, the maximum-likelihoodlmethod, we derive expressions for both the parameters of the theoretical model and its error. We investigate the derived equations by solving them for simulated experimental and theoretical quantities generated by use of random number generators. 2 refs., 4 tabs

  1. Parameter Estimation of Nonlinear Models in Forestry.

    OpenAIRE

    Fekedulegn, Desta; Mac Siúrtáin, Máirtín Pádraig; Colbert, Jim J.

    1999-01-01

    Partial derivatives of the negative exponential, monomolecular, Mitcherlich, Gompertz, logistic, Chapman-Richards, von Bertalanffy, Weibull and the Richard’s nonlinear growth models are presented. The application of these partial derivatives in estimating the model parameters is illustrated. The parameters are estimated using the Marquardt iterative method of nonlinear regression relating top height to age of Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) from the Bowmont Norway Spruce Thinnin...

  2. An empirical investigation on the forecasting ability of mallows model averaging in a macro economic environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yip Chee; Hock-Eam, Lim

    2012-09-01

    This paper investigates the forecasting ability of Mallows Model Averaging (MMA) by conducting an empirical analysis of five Asia countries, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia and China's GDP growth rate. Results reveal that MMA has no noticeable differences in predictive ability compared to the general autoregressive fractional integrated moving average model (ARFIMA) and its predictive ability is sensitive to the effect of financial crisis. MMA could be an alternative forecasting method for samples without recent outliers such as financial crisis.

  3. Transferability of hydrological models and ensemble averaging methods between contrasting climatic periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broderick, Ciaran; Matthews, Tom; Wilby, Robert L.; Bastola, Satish; Murphy, Conor

    2016-10-01

    Understanding hydrological model predictive capabilities under contrasting climate conditions enables more robust decision making. Using Differential Split Sample Testing (DSST), we analyze the performance of six hydrological models for 37 Irish catchments under climate conditions unlike those used for model training. Additionally, we consider four ensemble averaging techniques when examining interperiod transferability. DSST is conducted using 2/3 year noncontinuous blocks of (i) the wettest/driest years on record based on precipitation totals and (ii) years with a more/less pronounced seasonal precipitation regime. Model transferability between contrasting regimes was found to vary depending on the testing scenario, catchment, and evaluation criteria considered. As expected, the ensemble average outperformed most individual ensemble members. However, averaging techniques differed considerably in the number of times they surpassed the best individual model member. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and the Granger-Ramanathan Averaging (GRA) method were found to outperform the simple arithmetic mean (SAM) and Akaike Information Criteria Averaging (AICA). Here GRA performed better than the best individual model in 51%-86% of cases (according to the Nash-Sutcliffe criterion). When assessing model predictive skill under climate change conditions we recommend (i) setting up DSST to select the best available analogues of expected annual mean and seasonal climate conditions; (ii) applying multiple performance criteria; (iii) testing transferability using a diverse set of catchments; and (iv) using a multimodel ensemble in conjunction with an appropriate averaging technique. Given the computational efficiency and performance of GRA relative to BMA, the former is recommended as the preferred ensemble averaging technique for climate assessment.

  4. Estimation and Forecasting in Vector Autoregressive Moving Average Models for Rich Datasets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dias, Gustavo Fruet; Kapetanios, George

    We address the issue of modelling and forecasting macroeconomic variables using rich datasets, by adopting the class of Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (VARMA) models. We overcome the estimation issue that arises with this class of models by implementing an iterative ordinary least squares (...

  5. Free-free opacity in dense plasmas with an average atom model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaffer, Nathaniel R.; Ferris, Natalie G.; Colgan, James Patrick; Kilcrease, David Parker; Starrett, Charles Edward

    2017-01-01

    A model for the free-free opacity of dense plasmas is presented. The model uses a previously developed average atom model, together with the Kubo-Greenwood model for optical conductivity. This, in turn, is used to calculate the opacity with the Kramers-Kronig dispersion relations. Furthermore, comparisons to other methods for dense deuterium results in excellent agreement with DFT-MD simulations, and reasonable agreement with a simple Yukawa screening model corrected to satisfy the conductivity sum rule.

  6. Wind Farm Decentralized Dynamic Modeling With Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soltani, Mohsen; Shakeri, Sayyed Mojtaba; Grunnet, Jacob Deleuran

    2010-01-01

    Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...... local models. The results of this report are especially useful, but not limited, to design a decentralized wind farm controller, since in centralized controller design one can also use the model and update it in a central computing node.......Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...

  7. Parameter Estimation for Thurstone Choice Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vojnovic, Milan [London School of Economics (United Kingdom); Yun, Seyoung [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-04-24

    We consider the estimation accuracy of individual strength parameters of a Thurstone choice model when each input observation consists of a choice of one item from a set of two or more items (so called top-1 lists). This model accommodates the well-known choice models such as the Luce choice model for comparison sets of two or more items and the Bradley-Terry model for pair comparisons. We provide a tight characterization of the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator. We also provide similar characterizations for parameter estimators defined by a rank-breaking method, which amounts to deducing one or more pair comparisons from a comparison of two or more items, assuming independence of these pair comparisons, and maximizing a likelihood function derived under these assumptions. We also consider a related binary classification problem where each individual parameter takes value from a set of two possible values and the goal is to correctly classify all items within a prescribed classification error. The results of this paper shed light on how the parameter estimation accuracy depends on given Thurstone choice model and the structure of comparison sets. In particular, we found that for unbiased input comparison sets of a given cardinality, when in expectation each comparison set of given cardinality occurs the same number of times, for a broad class of Thurstone choice models, the mean squared error decreases with the cardinality of comparison sets, but only marginally according to a diminishing returns relation. On the other hand, we found that there exist Thurstone choice models for which the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator can decrease much faster with the cardinality of comparison sets. We report empirical evaluation of some claims and key parameters revealed by theory using both synthetic and real-world input data from some popular sport competitions and online labor platforms.

  8. Implementation of bayesian model averaging on the weather data forecasting applications utilizing open weather map

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmat, R. F.; Nasution, F. R.; Seniman; Syahputra, M. F.; Sitompul, O. S.

    2018-02-01

    Weather is condition of air in a certain region at a relatively short period of time, measured with various parameters such as; temperature, air preasure, wind velocity, humidity and another phenomenons in the atmosphere. In fact, extreme weather due to global warming would lead to drought, flood, hurricane and other forms of weather occasion, which directly affects social andeconomic activities. Hence, a forecasting technique is to predict weather with distinctive output, particullary mapping process based on GIS with information about current weather status in certain cordinates of each region with capability to forecast for seven days afterward. Data used in this research are retrieved in real time from the server openweathermap and BMKG. In order to obtain a low error rate and high accuracy of forecasting, the authors use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method. The result shows that the BMA method has good accuracy. Forecasting error value is calculated by mean square error shows (MSE). The error value emerges at minumum temperature rated at 0.28 and maximum temperature rated at 0.15. Meanwhile, the error value of minimum humidity rates at 0.38 and the error value of maximum humidity rates at 0.04. Afterall, the forecasting error rate of wind speed is at 0.076. The lower the forecasting error rate, the more optimized the accuracy is.

  9. Systematic parameter inference in stochastic mesoscopic modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lei, Huan; Yang, Xiu [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352 (United States); Li, Zhen [Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States); Karniadakis, George Em, E-mail: george_karniadakis@brown.edu [Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States)

    2017-02-01

    We propose a method to efficiently determine the optimal coarse-grained force field in mesoscopic stochastic simulations of Newtonian fluid and polymer melt systems modeled by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) and energy conserving dissipative particle dynamics (eDPD). The response surfaces of various target properties (viscosity, diffusivity, pressure, etc.) with respect to model parameters are constructed based on the generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion using simulation results on sampling points (e.g., individual parameter sets). To alleviate the computational cost to evaluate the target properties, we employ the compressive sensing method to compute the coefficients of the dominant gPC terms given the prior knowledge that the coefficients are “sparse”. The proposed method shows comparable accuracy with the standard probabilistic collocation method (PCM) while it imposes a much weaker restriction on the number of the simulation samples especially for systems with high dimensional parametric space. Fully access to the response surfaces within the confidence range enables us to infer the optimal force parameters given the desirable values of target properties at the macroscopic scale. Moreover, it enables us to investigate the intrinsic relationship between the model parameters, identify possible degeneracies in the parameter space, and optimize the model by eliminating model redundancies. The proposed method provides an efficient alternative approach for constructing mesoscopic models by inferring model parameters to recover target properties of the physics systems (e.g., from experimental measurements), where those force field parameters and formulation cannot be derived from the microscopic level in a straight forward way.

  10. Hybrid Reynolds-Averaged/Large Eddy Simulation of the Flow in a Model SCRamjet Cavity Flameholder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baurle, R. A.

    2016-01-01

    Steady-state and scale-resolving simulations have been performed for flow in and around a model scramjet combustor flameholder. Experimental data available for this configuration include velocity statistics obtained from particle image velocimetry. Several turbulence models were used for the steady-state Reynolds-averaged simulations which included both linear and non-linear eddy viscosity models. The scale-resolving simulations used a hybrid Reynolds-averaged/large eddy simulation strategy that is designed to be a large eddy simulation everywhere except in the inner portion (log layer and below) of the boundary layer. Hence, this formulation can be regarded as a wall-modeled large eddy simulation. This e ort was undertaken to not only assess the performance of the hybrid Reynolds-averaged / large eddy simulation modeling approach in a flowfield of interest to the scramjet research community, but to also begin to understand how this capability can best be used to augment standard Reynolds-averaged simulations. The numerical errors were quantified for the steady-state simulations, and at least qualitatively assessed for the scale-resolving simulations prior to making any claims of predictive accuracy relative to the measurements. The steady-state Reynolds-averaged results displayed a high degree of variability when comparing the flameholder fuel distributions obtained from each turbulence model. This prompted the consideration of applying the higher-fidelity scale-resolving simulations as a surrogate "truth" model to calibrate the Reynolds-averaged closures in a non-reacting setting prior to their use for the combusting simulations. In general, the Reynolds-averaged velocity profile predictions at the lowest fueling level matched the particle imaging measurements almost as well as was observed for the non-reacting condition. However, the velocity field predictions proved to be more sensitive to the flameholder fueling rate than was indicated in the measurements.

  11. Application of lumped-parameter models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten

    This technical report concerns the lumped-parameter models for a suction caisson with a ratio between skirt length and foundation diameter equal to 1/2, embedded into an viscoelastic soil. The models are presented for three different values of the shear modulus of the subsoil (section 1.1). Subse...

  12. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base

  13. WINKLER'S SINGLE-PARAMETER SUBGRADE MODEL FROM ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Preferred Customer

    Page 1 ... corresponding single-parameter Winkler model presented in this work. Keywords: Heterogeneous subgrade, Reissner's simplified continuum, Shear interaction, Simplified continuum, Winkler ... model in practical applications and its long time familiarity among practical engineers, its usage has endured to this date ...

  14. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, C W [ed.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)

  15. Consistent Stochastic Modelling of Meteocean Design Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Sterndorff, M. J.

    2000-01-01

    Consistent stochastic models of metocean design parameters and their directional dependencies are essential for reliability assessment of offshore structures. In this paper a stochastic model for the annual maximum values of the significant wave height, and the associated wind velocity, current...

  16. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.

    1983-01-01

    This article reviews the forthcoming book Models and Parameters for Environmental Radiological Assessments, which presents a unified compilation of models and parameters for assessing the impact on man of radioactive discharges, both routine and accidental, into the environment. Models presented in this book include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Summaries are presented for each of the transport and dosimetry areas previously for each of the transport and dosimetry areas previously mentioned, and details are available in the literature cited. A chapter of example problems illustrates many of the methodologies presented throughout the text. Models and parameters presented are based on the results of extensive literature reviews and evaluations performed primarily by the staff of the Health and Safety Research Division of Oak Ridge National Laboratory

  17. Parameter sensitivity analysis of a lumped-parameter model of a chain of lymphangions in series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamalian, Samira; Bertram, Christopher D; Richardson, William J; Moore, James E

    2013-12-01

    Any disruption of the lymphatic system due to trauma or injury can lead to edema. There is no effective cure for lymphedema, partly because predictive knowledge of lymphatic system reactions to interventions is lacking. A well-developed model of the system could greatly improve our understanding of its function. Lymphangions, defined as the vessel segment between two valves, are the individual pumping units. Based on our previous lumped-parameter model of a chain of lymphangions, this study aimed to identify the parameters that affect the system output the most using a sensitivity analysis. The system was highly sensitive to minimum valve resistance, such that variations in this parameter caused an order-of-magnitude change in time-average flow rate for certain values of imposed pressure difference. Average flow rate doubled when contraction frequency was increased within its physiological range. Optimum lymphangion length was found to be some 13-14.5 diameters. A peak of time-average flow rate occurred when transmural pressure was such that the pressure-diameter loop for active contractions was centered near maximum passive vessel compliance. Increasing the number of lymphangions in the chain improved the pumping in the presence of larger adverse pressure differences. For a given pressure difference, the optimal number of lymphangions increased with the total vessel length. These results indicate that further experiments to estimate valve resistance more accurately are necessary. The existence of an optimal value of transmural pressure may provide additional guidelines for increasing pumping in areas affected by edema.

  18. An averaging battery model for a lead-acid battery operating in an electric car

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozek, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    A battery model is developed based on time averaging the current or power, and is shown to be an effective means of predicting the performance of a lead acid battery. The effectiveness of this battery model was tested on battery discharge profiles expected during the operation of an electric vehicle following the various SAE J227a driving schedules. The averaging model predicts the performance of a battery that is periodically charged (regenerated) if the regeneration energy is assumed to be converted to retrievable electrochemical energy on a one-to-one basis.

  19. Actuator disk model of wind farms based on the rotor average wind speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Han, Xing Xing; Xu, Chang; Liu, De You

    2016-01-01

    Due to difficulty of estimating the reference wind speed for wake modeling in wind farm, this paper proposes a new method to calculate the momentum source based on the rotor average wind speed. The proposed model applies volume correction factor to reduce the influence of the mesh recognition of ...

  20. Bootstrap-after-bootstrap model averaging for reducing model uncertainty in model selection for air pollution mortality studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Steven; Martin, Michael A

    2010-01-01

    Concerns have been raised about findings of associations between particulate matter (PM) air pollution and mortality that have been based on a single "best" model arising from a model selection procedure, because such a strategy may ignore model uncertainty inherently involved in searching through a set of candidate models to find the best model. Model averaging has been proposed as a method of allowing for model uncertainty in this context. To propose an extension (double BOOT) to a previously described bootstrap model-averaging procedure (BOOT) for use in time series studies of the association between PM and mortality. We compared double BOOT and BOOT with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and a standard method of model selection [standard Akaike's information criterion (AIC)]. Actual time series data from the United States are used to conduct a simulation study to compare and contrast the performance of double BOOT, BOOT, BMA, and standard AIC. Double BOOT produced estimates of the effect of PM on mortality that have had smaller root mean squared error than did those produced by BOOT, BMA, and standard AIC. This performance boost resulted from estimates produced by double BOOT having smaller variance than those produced by BOOT and BMA. Double BOOT is a viable alternative to BOOT and BMA for producing estimates of the mortality effect of PM.

  1. Comparative Analysis of Market Volatility in Indian Banking and IT Sectors by using Average Decline Model

    OpenAIRE

    Kirti AREKAR; Rinku JAIN

    2017-01-01

    The stock market volatility is depends on three major features, complete volatility, volatility fluctuations, and volatility attention and they are calculate by the statistical techniques. Comparative analysis of market volatility for two major index i.e. banking & IT sector in Bombay stock exchange (BSE) by using average decline model. The average degeneration process in volatility has being used after very high and low stock returns. The results of this study explain significant decline in...

  2. The mobilisation model and parameter sensitivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blok, B.M.

    1993-12-01

    In the PRObabillistic Safety Assessment (PROSA) of radioactive waste in a salt repository one of the nuclide release scenario's is the subrosion scenario. A new subrosion model SUBRECN has been developed. In this model the combined effect of a depth-dependent subrosion, glass dissolution, and salt rise has been taken into account. The subrosion model SUBRECN and the implementation of this model in the German computer program EMOS4 is presented. A new computer program PANTER is derived from EMOS4. PANTER models releases of radionuclides via subrosion from a disposal site in a salt pillar into the biosphere. For uncertainty and sensitivity analyses the new subrosion model Latin Hypercube Sampling has been used for determine the different values for the uncertain parameters. The influence of the uncertainty in the parameters on the dose calculations has been investigated by the following sensitivity techniques: Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficients, Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients, Standardised Rank Regression Coefficients, and the Smirnov Test. (orig./HP)

  3. Source term modelling parameters for Project-90

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, W.; Smith, G.; Worgan, K.; Hodgkinson, D.; Andersson, K.

    1992-04-01

    This document summarises the input parameters for the source term modelling within Project-90. In the first place, the parameters relate to the CALIBRE near-field code which was developed for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate's (SKI) Project-90 reference repository safety assessment exercise. An attempt has been made to give best estimate values and, where appropriate, a range which is related to variations around base cases. It should be noted that the data sets contain amendments to those considered by KBS-3. In particular, a completely new set of inventory data has been incorporated. The information given here does not constitute a complete set of parameter values for all parts of the CALIBRE code. Rather, it gives the key parameter values which are used in the constituent models within CALIBRE and the associated studies. For example, the inventory data acts as an input to the calculation of the oxidant production rates, which influence the generation of a redox front. The same data is also an initial value data set for the radionuclide migration component of CALIBRE. Similarly, the geometrical parameters of the near-field are common to both sub-models. The principal common parameters are gathered here for ease of reference and avoidance of unnecessary duplication and transcription errors. (au)

  4. Extension of the time-average model to Candu refueling schemes involving reshuffling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rouben, Benjamin; Nichita, Eleodor

    2008-01-01

    Candu reactors consist of a horizontal non-pressurized heavy-water-filled vessel penetrated axially by fuel channels, each containing twelve 50-cm-long fuel bundles cooled by pressurized heavy water. Candu reactors are refueled on-line and, as a consequence, the core flux and power distributions change continuously. For design purposes, a 'time-average' model was developed in the 1970's to calculate the average over time of the flux and power distribution and to study the effects of different refueling schemes. The original time-average model only allows treatment of simple push-through refueling schemes whereby fresh fuel is inserted at one end of the channel and irradiated fuel is removed from the other end. With the advent of advanced fuel cycles and new Candu designs, novel refueling schemes may be considered, such as reshuffling discharged fuel from some channels into other channels, to achieve better overall discharge burnup. Such reshuffling schemes cannot be handled by the original time-average model. This paper presents an extension of the time-average model to allow for the treatment of refueling schemes with reshuffling. Equations for the extended model are presented, together with sample results for a simple demonstration case. (authors)

  5. Hybrid Reynolds-Averaged/Large Eddy Simulation of a Cavity Flameholder; Assessment of Modeling Sensitivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baurle, R. A.

    2015-01-01

    Steady-state and scale-resolving simulations have been performed for flow in and around a model scramjet combustor flameholder. The cases simulated corresponded to those used to examine this flowfield experimentally using particle image velocimetry. A variety of turbulence models were used for the steady-state Reynolds-averaged simulations which included both linear and non-linear eddy viscosity models. The scale-resolving simulations used a hybrid Reynolds-averaged / large eddy simulation strategy that is designed to be a large eddy simulation everywhere except in the inner portion (log layer and below) of the boundary layer. Hence, this formulation can be regarded as a wall-modeled large eddy simulation. This effort was undertaken to formally assess the performance of the hybrid Reynolds-averaged / large eddy simulation modeling approach in a flowfield of interest to the scramjet research community. The numerical errors were quantified for both the steady-state and scale-resolving simulations prior to making any claims of predictive accuracy relative to the measurements. The steady-state Reynolds-averaged results showed a high degree of variability when comparing the predictions obtained from each turbulence model, with the non-linear eddy viscosity model (an explicit algebraic stress model) providing the most accurate prediction of the measured values. The hybrid Reynolds-averaged/large eddy simulation results were carefully scrutinized to ensure that even the coarsest grid had an acceptable level of resolution for large eddy simulation, and that the time-averaged statistics were acceptably accurate. The autocorrelation and its Fourier transform were the primary tools used for this assessment. The statistics extracted from the hybrid simulation strategy proved to be more accurate than the Reynolds-averaged results obtained using the linear eddy viscosity models. However, there was no predictive improvement noted over the results obtained from the explicit

  6. A novel Generalized State-Space Averaging (GSSA) model for advanced aircraft electric power systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebrahimi, Hadi; El-Kishky, Hassan

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A study model is developed for aircraft electric power systems. • A novel GSSA model is developed for the interconnected power grid. • The system’s dynamics are characterized under various conditions. • The averaged results are compared and verified with the actual model. • The obtained measured values are validated with available aircraft standards. - Abstract: The growing complexity of Advanced Aircraft Electric Power Systems (AAEPS) has made conventional state-space averaging models inadequate for systems analysis and characterization. This paper presents a novel Generalized State-Space Averaging (GSSA) model for the system analysis, control and characterization of AAEPS. The primary objective of this paper is to introduce a mathematically elegant and computationally simple model to copy the AAEPS behavior at the critical nodes of the electric grid. Also, to reduce some or all of the drawbacks (complexity, cost, simulation time…, etc) associated with sensor-based monitoring and computer aided design software simulations popularly used for AAEPS characterization. It is shown in this paper that the GSSA approach overcomes the limitations of the conventional state-space averaging method, which fails to predict the behavior of AC signals in a circuit analysis. Unlike conventional averaging method, the GSSA model presented in this paper includes both DC and AC components. This would capture the key dynamic and steady-state characteristics of the aircraft electric systems. The developed model is then examined for the aircraft system’s visualization and accuracy of computation under different loading scenarios. Through several case studies, the applicability and effectiveness of the GSSA method is verified by comparing to the actual real-time simulation model obtained from Powersim 9 (PSIM9) software environment. The simulations results represent voltage, current and load power at the major nodes of the AAEPS. It has been demonstrated that

  7. The Value of Multivariate Model Sophistication: An Application to pricing Dow Jones Industrial Average options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars; Violante, Francesco

    innovation for a Laplace innovation assumption improves the pricing in a smaller way. Apart from investigating directly the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses, we also use the model condence set approach to statistically infer the set of models that delivers the best pricing performance.......We assess the predictive accuracy of a large number of multivariate volatility models in terms of pricing options on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We measure the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses by considering a set 248 multivariate models that differer...

  8. Analysis of Modeling Parameters on Threaded Screws.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vigil, Miquela S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brake, Matthew Robert [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vangoethem, Douglas [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-06-01

    Assembled mechanical systems often contain a large number of bolted connections. These bolted connections (joints) are integral aspects of the load path for structural dynamics, and, consequently, are paramount for calculating a structure's stiffness and energy dissipation prop- erties. However, analysts have not found the optimal method to model appropriately these bolted joints. The complexity of the screw geometry cause issues when generating a mesh of the model. This paper will explore different approaches to model a screw-substrate connec- tion. Model parameters such as mesh continuity, node alignment, wedge angles, and thread to body element size ratios are examined. The results of this study will give analysts a better understanding of the influences of these parameters and will aide in finding the optimal method to model bolted connections.

  9. Parameter Estimation of Spacecraft Fuel Slosh Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gangadharan, Sathya; Sudermann, James; Marlowe, Andrea; Njengam Charles

    2004-01-01

    Fuel slosh in the upper stages of a spinning spacecraft during launch has been a long standing concern for the success of a space mission. Energy loss through the movement of the liquid fuel in the fuel tank affects the gyroscopic stability of the spacecraft and leads to nutation (wobble) which can cause devastating control issues. The rate at which nutation develops (defined by Nutation Time Constant (NTC can be tedious to calculate and largely inaccurate if done during the early stages of spacecraft design. Pure analytical means of predicting the influence of onboard liquids have generally failed. A strong need exists to identify and model the conditions of resonance between nutation motion and liquid modes and to understand the general characteristics of the liquid motion that causes the problem in spinning spacecraft. A 3-D computerized model of the fuel slosh that accounts for any resonant modes found in the experimental testing will allow for increased accuracy in the overall modeling process. Development of a more accurate model of the fuel slosh currently lies in a more generalized 3-D computerized model incorporating masses, springs and dampers. Parameters describing the model include the inertia tensor of the fuel, spring constants, and damper coefficients. Refinement and understanding the effects of these parameters allow for a more accurate simulation of fuel slosh. The current research will focus on developing models of different complexity and estimating the model parameters that will ultimately provide a more realistic prediction of Nutation Time Constant obtained through simulation.

  10. On the role of modeling parameters in IMRT plan optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krause, Michael; Scherrer, Alexander; Thieke, Christian

    2008-01-01

    The formulation of optimization problems in intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) planning comprises the choice of various values such as function-specific parameters or constraint bounds. In current inverse planning programs that yield a single treatment plan for each optimization, it is often unclear how strongly these modeling parameters affect the resulting plan. This work investigates the mathematical concepts of elasticity and sensitivity to deal with this problem. An artificial planning case with a horse-shoe formed target with different opening angles surrounding a circular risk structure is studied. As evaluation functions the generalized equivalent uniform dose (EUD) and the average underdosage below and average overdosage beyond certain dose thresholds are used. A single IMRT plan is calculated for an exemplary parameter configuration. The elasticity and sensitivity of each parameter are then calculated without re-optimization, and the results are numerically verified. The results show the following. (1) elasticity can quantify the influence of a modeling parameter on the optimization result in terms of how strongly the objective function value varies under modifications of the parameter value. It also can describe how strongly the geometry of the involved planning structures affects the optimization result. (2) Based on the current parameter settings and corresponding treatment plan, sensitivity analysis can predict the optimization result for modified parameter values without re-optimization, and it can estimate the value intervals in which such predictions are valid. In conclusion, elasticity and sensitivity can provide helpful tools in inverse IMRT planning to identify the most critical parameters of an individual planning problem and to modify their values in an appropriate way

  11. Serpent-COREDAX analysis of CANDU-6 time-average model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Motalab, M.A.; Cho, B.; Kim, W.; Cho, N.Z.; Kim, Y., E-mail: yongheekim@kaist.ac.kr [Korea Advanced Inst. of Science and Technology (KAIST), Dept. of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-07-01

    COREDAX-2 is the nuclear core analysis nodal code that has adopted the Analytic Function Expansion Nodal (AFEN) methodology which has been developed in Korea. AFEN method outperforms in terms of accuracy compared to other conventional nodal methods. To evaluate the possibility of CANDU-type core analysis using the COREDAX-2, the time-average analysis code system was developed. The two-group homogenized cross-sections were calculated using Monte Carlo code, Serpent2. A stand-alone time-average module was developed to determine the time-average burnup distribution in the core for a given fuel management strategy. The coupled Serpent-COREDAX-2 calculation converges to an equilibrium time-average model for the CANDU-6 core. (author)

  12. Validation of a mixture-averaged thermal diffusion model for premixed lean hydrogen flames

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlup, Jason; Blanquart, Guillaume

    2018-03-01

    The mixture-averaged thermal diffusion model originally proposed by Chapman and Cowling is validated using multiple flame configurations. Simulations using detailed hydrogen chemistry are done on one-, two-, and three-dimensional flames. The analysis spans flat and stretched, steady and unsteady, and laminar and turbulent flames. Quantitative and qualitative results using the thermal diffusion model compare very well with the more complex multicomponent diffusion model. Comparisons are made using flame speeds, surface areas, species profiles, and chemical source terms. Once validated, this model is applied to three-dimensional laminar and turbulent flames. For these cases, thermal diffusion causes an increase in the propagation speed of the flames as well as increased product chemical source terms in regions of high positive curvature. The results illustrate the necessity for including thermal diffusion, and the accuracy and computational efficiency of the mixture-averaged thermal diffusion model.

  13. Semi-analytical wave functions in relativistic average atom model for high-temperature plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo Yonghui; Duan Yaoyong; Kuai Bin

    2007-01-01

    The semi-analytical method is utilized for solving a relativistic average atom model for high-temperature plasmas. Semi-analytical wave function and the corresponding energy eigenvalue, containing only a numerical factor, are obtained by fitting the potential function in the average atom into hydrogen-like one. The full equations for the model are enumerated, and more attentions are paid upon the detailed procedures including the numerical techniques and computer code design. When the temperature of plasmas is comparatively high, the semi-analytical results agree quite well with those obtained by using a full numerical method for the same model and with those calculated by just a little different physical models, and the result's accuracy and computation efficiency are worthy of note. The drawbacks for this model are also analyzed. (authors)

  14. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) Modeling Method for Gyro Random Noise Using a Robust Kalman Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Lei

    2015-01-01

    To solve the problem in which the conventional ARMA modeling methods for gyro random noise require a large number of samples and converge slowly, an ARMA modeling method using a robust Kalman filtering is developed. The ARMA model parameters are employed as state arguments. Unknown time-varying estimators of observation noise are used to achieve the estimated mean and variance of the observation noise. Using the robust Kalman filtering, the ARMA model parameters are estimated accurately. The developed ARMA modeling method has the advantages of a rapid convergence and high accuracy. Thus, the required sample size is reduced. It can be applied to modeling applications for gyro random noise in which a fast and accurate ARMA modeling method is required. PMID:26437409

  15. Model comparisons and genetic and environmental parameter ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    arc

    Model comparisons and genetic and environmental parameter estimates of growth and the ... breeding strategies and for accurate breeding value estimation. The objectives ...... Sci. 23, 72-76. Van Wyk, J.B., Fair, M.D. & Cloete, S.W.P., 2003.

  16. The rho-parameter in supersymmetric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, C.S.; Inami, T.; Sakai, N.

    1983-10-01

    The electroweak rho-parameter is examined in a general class of supersymmetric models. Formulae are given for one-loop contributions to Δrho from scalar quarks and leptons, gauge-Higgs fermions and an extra doublet of Higgs scalars. Mass differences between members of isodoublet scalar quarks and leptons are constrained to be less than about 200 GeV. (author)

  17. A lumped parameter model of plasma focus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez, Jose H.; Florido, Pablo C.; Bruzzone, H.; Clausse, Alejandro

    1999-01-01

    A lumped parameter model to estimate neutron emission of a plasma focus (PF) device is developed. The dynamic of the current sheet is calculated using a snowplow model, and the neutron production with the thermal fusion cross section for a deuterium filling gas. The results were contrasted as a function of the filling pressure with experimental measurements of a 3.68 KJ Mather-type PF. (author)

  18. One parameter model potential for noble metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Idrees, M.; Khwaja, F.A.; Razmi, M.S.K.

    1981-08-01

    A phenomenological one parameter model potential which includes s-d hybridization and core-core exchange contributions is proposed for noble metals. A number of interesting properties like liquid metal resistivities, band gaps, thermoelectric powers and ion-ion interaction potentials are calculated for Cu, Ag and Au. The results obtained are in better agreement with experiment than the ones predicted by the other model potentials in the literature. (author)

  19. A new nonlinear turbulence model based on Partially-Averaged Navier-Stokes Equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, J T; Wu, Y L; Cai, C; Liu, S H; Wang, L Q

    2013-01-01

    Partially-averaged Navier-Stokes (PANS) Model was recognized as a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) to direct numerical simulation (DNS) bridging method. PANS model was purported for any filter width-from RANS to DNS. PANS method also shared some similarities with the currently popular URANS (unsteady RANS) method. In this paper, a new PANS model was proposed, which was based on RNG k-ε turbulence model. The Standard and RNG k-ε turbulence model were both isotropic models, as well as PANS models. The sheer stress in those PANS models was solved by linear equation. The linear hypothesis was not accurate in the simulation of complex flow, such as stall phenomenon. The sheer stress here was solved by nonlinear method proposed by Ehrhard. Then, the nonlinear PANS model was set up. The pressure coefficient of the suction side of the NACA0015 hydrofoil was predicted. The result of pressure coefficient agrees well with experimental result, which proves that the nonlinear PANS model can capture the high pressure gradient flow. A low specific centrifugal pump was used to verify the capacity of the nonlinear PANS model. The comparison between the simulation results of the centrifugal pump and Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) results proves that the nonlinear PANS model can be used in the prediction of complex flow field

  20. The level density parameters for fermi gas model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuang Youxiang; Wang Cuilan; Zhou Chunmei; Su Zongdi

    1986-01-01

    Nuclear level densities are crucial ingredient in the statistical models, for instance, in the calculations of the widths, cross sections, emitted particle spectra, etc. for various reaction channels. In this work 667 sets of more reliable and new experimental data are adopted, which include average level spacing D D , radiative capture width Γ γ 0 at neutron binding energy and cumulative level number N 0 at the low excitation energy. They are published during 1973 to 1983. Based on the parameters given by Gilbert-Cameon and Cook the physical quantities mentioned above are calculated. The calculated results have the deviation obviously from experimental values. In order to improve the fitting, the parameters in the G-C formula are adjusted and new set of level density parameters is obsained. The parameters is this work are more suitable to fit new measurements

  1. Calibration of discrete element model parameters: soybeans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghodki, Bhupendra M.; Patel, Manish; Namdeo, Rohit; Carpenter, Gopal

    2018-05-01

    Discrete element method (DEM) simulations are broadly used to get an insight of flow characteristics of granular materials in complex particulate systems. DEM input parameters for a model are the critical prerequisite for an efficient simulation. Thus, the present investigation aims to determine DEM input parameters for Hertz-Mindlin model using soybeans as a granular material. To achieve this aim, widely acceptable calibration approach was used having standard box-type apparatus. Further, qualitative and quantitative findings such as particle profile, height of kernels retaining the acrylic wall, and angle of repose of experiments and numerical simulations were compared to get the parameters. The calibrated set of DEM input parameters includes the following (a) material properties: particle geometric mean diameter (6.24 mm); spherical shape; particle density (1220 kg m^{-3} ), and (b) interaction parameters such as particle-particle: coefficient of restitution (0.17); coefficient of static friction (0.26); coefficient of rolling friction (0.08), and particle-wall: coefficient of restitution (0.35); coefficient of static friction (0.30); coefficient of rolling friction (0.08). The results may adequately be used to simulate particle scale mechanics (grain commingling, flow/motion, forces, etc) of soybeans in post-harvest machinery and devices.

  2. Model averaging in the analysis of leukemia mortality among Japanese A-bomb survivors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, David B.; Cole, Stephen R.

    2012-01-01

    Epidemiological studies often include numerous covariates, with a variety of possible approaches to control for confounding of the association of primary interest, as well as a variety of possible models for the exposure-response association of interest. Walsh and Kaiser (Radiat Environ Biophys 50:21-35, 2011) advocate a weighted averaging of the models, where the weights are a function of overall model goodness of fit and degrees of freedom. They apply this method to analyses of radiation-leukemia mortality associations among Japanese A-bomb survivors. We caution against such an approach, noting that the proposed model averaging approach prioritizes the inclusion of covariates that are strong predictors of the outcome, but which may be irrelevant as confounders of the association of interest, and penalizes adjustment for covariates that are confounders of the association of interest, but may contribute little to overall model goodness of fit. We offer a simple illustration of how this approach can lead to biased results. The proposed model averaging approach may also be suboptimal as way to handle competing model forms for an exposure-response association of interest, given adjustment for the same set of confounders; alternative approaches, such as hierarchical regression, may provide a more useful way to stabilize risk estimates in this setting. (orig.)

  3. Distribution of average, marginal, and participation tax rates among Czech taxpayers: results from a TAXBEN model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dušek, Libor; Kalíšková, Klára; Münich, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 63, č. 6 (2013), s. 474-504 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA TA ČR(CZ) TD010033 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : TAXBEN models * average tax rates * marginal tax rates Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.358, year: 2013 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1287_dusek.pdf

  4. Averaging of the Equations of the Standard Cosmological Model over Rapid Oscillations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ignat'ev, Yu. G.; Samigullina, A. R.

    2017-11-01

    An averaging of the equations of the standard cosmological model (SCM) is carried out. It is shown that the main contribution to the macroscopic energy density of the scalar field comes from its microscopic oscillations with the Compton period. The effective macroscopic equation of state of the oscillations of the scalar field corresponds to the nonrelativistic limit.

  5. Properties of bright solitons in averaged and unaveraged models for SDG fibres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Ajit; Kumar, Atul

    1996-04-01

    Using the slowly varying envelope approximation and averaging over the fibre cross-section the evolution equation for optical pulses in semiconductor-doped glass (SDG) fibres is derived from the nonlinear wave equation. Bright soliton solutions of this equation are obtained numerically and their properties are studied and compared with those of the bright solitons in the unaveraged model.

  6. Introduction to turbulence modelling: Applications of Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes Equations (RANSE) to engineering problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurence, D.

    1997-01-01

    The k-ε model and Reynolds stress transport model are set out in a few words. Limitations of models are shown, particularly for turbulence generation in the turbulent viscosity context, and, more generally, the uncertainties and miscellaneous changes made to the dissipation equation. The performances of models are then compared, using results of the three latest ERCOFTA/IAHR workshops. It is shown that algebraic constraints which can be derived exactly by assuming asymptotic limits (rapid distortion, homogeneous shear at infinite time, 2D turbulence) have inhibited a better tuning of the models for real life flow where these limits are not encountered. A more pragmatic approach could be taken by allowing the constants to be functions of invariant parameters. But these functions, making the models non-linear, can lead to bifurcations or instability. One essential parameter is the distance to the wall, which recent models have tried to eliminate, although this parameter appears indirectly through the Poisson equation for the fluctuating pressure. A possible indirect model is the elliptic relaxation. Progress was recently achieved in near-wall low Re modelling, but these advances do not always result in benefits to industry since only the 'wall function' approaches can be used in the high Re, 3D flows that we need to study. With the knowledge gained from near-wall modelling, it might be profitable to revisit the 'wall functions' devised 20 years ago. (author)

  7. Effects of stratospheric aerosol surface processes on the LLNL two-dimensional zonally averaged model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Connell, P.S.; Kinnison, D.E.; Wuebbles, D.J.; Burley, J.D.; Johnston, H.S.

    1992-01-01

    We have investigated the effects of incorporating representations of heterogeneous chemical processes associated with stratospheric sulfuric acid aerosol into the LLNL two-dimensional, zonally averaged, model of the troposphere and stratosphere. Using distributions of aerosol surface area and volume density derived from SAGE 11 satellite observations, we were primarily interested in changes in partitioning within the Cl- and N- families in the lower stratosphere, compared to a model including only gas phase photochemical reactions

  8. Robust Determinants of Growth in Asian Developing Economies: A Bayesian Panel Data Model Averaging Approach

    OpenAIRE

    LEON-GONZALEZ, Roberto; VINAYAGATHASAN, Thanabalasingam

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the determinants of growth in the Asian developing economies. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in the context of a dynamic panel data growth regression to overcome the uncertainty over the choice of control variables. In addition, we use a Bayesian algorithm to analyze a large number of competing models. Among the explanatory variables, we include a non-linear function of inflation that allows for threshold effects. We use an unbalanced panel data set of 27 Asian ...

  9. Parameter optimization for surface flux transport models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitbread, T.; Yeates, A. R.; Muñoz-Jaramillo, A.; Petrie, G. J. D.

    2017-11-01

    Accurate prediction of solar activity calls for precise calibration of solar cycle models. Consequently we aim to find optimal parameters for models which describe the physical processes on the solar surface, which in turn act as proxies for what occurs in the interior and provide source terms for coronal models. We use a genetic algorithm to optimize surface flux transport models using National Solar Observatory (NSO) magnetogram data for Solar Cycle 23. This is applied to both a 1D model that inserts new magnetic flux in the form of idealized bipolar magnetic regions, and also to a 2D model that assimilates specific shapes of real active regions. The genetic algorithm searches for parameter sets (meridional flow speed and profile, supergranular diffusivity, initial magnetic field, and radial decay time) that produce the best fit between observed and simulated butterfly diagrams, weighted by a latitude-dependent error structure which reflects uncertainty in observations. Due to the easily adaptable nature of the 2D model, the optimization process is repeated for Cycles 21, 22, and 24 in order to analyse cycle-to-cycle variation of the optimal solution. We find that the ranges and optimal solutions for the various regimes are in reasonable agreement with results from the literature, both theoretical and observational. The optimal meridional flow profiles for each regime are almost entirely within observational bounds determined by magnetic feature tracking, with the 2D model being able to accommodate the mean observed profile more successfully. Differences between models appear to be important in deciding values for the diffusive and decay terms. In like fashion, differences in the behaviours of different solar cycles lead to contrasts in parameters defining the meridional flow and initial field strength.

  10. Comparative Analysis of Market Volatility in Indian Banking and IT Sectors by using Average Decline Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirti AREKAR

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The stock market volatility is depends on three major features, complete volatility, volatility fluctuations, and volatility attention and they are calculate by the statistical techniques. Comparative analysis of market volatility for two major index i.e. banking & IT sector in Bombay stock exchange (BSE by using average decline model. The average degeneration process in volatility has being used after very high and low stock returns. The results of this study explain significant decline in volatility fluctuations, attention, and level between epochs of pre and post particularly high stock returns.

  11. Structure-activity relationships of pyrethroid insecticides. Part 2. The use of molecular dynamics for conformation searching and average parameter calculation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Brian D.; George, Ashley R.; Ford, Martyn G.; Livingstone, David J.

    1992-04-01

    Molecular dynamics simulations have been performed on a number of conformationally flexible pyrethroid insecticides. The results indicate that molecular dynamics is a suitable tool for conformational searching of small molecules given suitable simulation parameters. The structures derived from the simulations are compared with the static conformation used in a previous study. Various physicochemical parameters have been calculated for a set of conformations selected from the simulations using multivariate analysis. The averaged values of the parameters over the selected set (and the factors derived from them) are compared with the single conformation values used in the previous study.

  12. Evidence on a Real Business Cycle Model with Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks using Bayesian Model Averaging

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.W. Strachan (Rodney); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe empirical support for a real business cycle model with two technology shocks is evaluated using a Bayesian model averaging procedure. This procedure makes use of a finite mixture of many models within the class of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes. The linear VAR model is

  13. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy based inferential sensor model for estimating the average air temperature in space heating systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jassar, S.; Zhao, L. [Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Ryerson University, 350 Victoria Street, Toronto, ON (Canada); Liao, Z. [Department of Architectural Science, Ryerson University (Canada)

    2009-08-15

    The heating systems are conventionally controlled by open-loop control systems because of the absence of practical methods for estimating average air temperature in the built environment. An inferential sensor model, based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system modeling, for estimating the average air temperature in multi-zone space heating systems is developed. This modeling technique has the advantage of expert knowledge of fuzzy inference systems (FISs) and learning capability of artificial neural networks (ANNs). A hybrid learning algorithm, which combines the least-square method and the back-propagation algorithm, is used to identify the parameters of the network. This paper describes an adaptive network based inferential sensor that can be used to design closed-loop control for space heating systems. The research aims to improve the overall performance of heating systems, in terms of energy efficiency and thermal comfort. The average air temperature results estimated by using the developed model are strongly in agreement with the experimental results. (author)

  14. Constant-parameter capture-recapture models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brownie, C.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

    1986-01-01

    Jolly (1982, Biometrics 38, 301-321) presented modifications of the Jolly-Seber model for capture-recapture data, which assume constant survival and/or capture rates. Where appropriate, because of the reduced number of parameters, these models lead to more efficient estimators than the Jolly-Seber model. The tests to compare models given by Jolly do not make complete use of the data, and we present here the appropriate modifications, and also indicate how to carry out goodness-of-fit tests which utilize individual capture history information. We also describe analogous models for the case where young and adult animals are tagged. The availability of computer programs to perform the analysis is noted, and examples are given using output from these programs.

  15. Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Analysis of Zero Efflux Flow Control over a Hump Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumsey, Christopher L.

    2006-01-01

    The unsteady flow over a hump model with zero efflux oscillatory flow control is modeled computationally using the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. Three different turbulence models produce similar results, and do a reasonably good job predicting the general character of the unsteady surface pressure coefficients during the forced cycle. However, the turbulent shear stresses are underpredicted in magnitude inside the separation bubble, and the computed results predict too large a (mean) separation bubble compared with experiment. These missed predictions are consistent with earlier steady-state results using no-flow-control and steady suction, from a 2004 CFD validation workshop for synthetic jets.

  16. Refining Markov state models for conformational dynamics using ensemble-averaged data and time-series trajectories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsunaga, Y.; Sugita, Y.

    2018-06-01

    A data-driven modeling scheme is proposed for conformational dynamics of biomolecules based on molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and experimental measurements. In this scheme, an initial Markov State Model (MSM) is constructed from MD simulation trajectories, and then, the MSM parameters are refined using experimental measurements through machine learning techniques. The second step can reduce the bias of MD simulation results due to inaccurate force-field parameters. Either time-series trajectories or ensemble-averaged data are available as a training data set in the scheme. Using a coarse-grained model of a dye-labeled polyproline-20, we compare the performance of machine learning estimations from the two types of training data sets. Machine learning from time-series data could provide the equilibrium populations of conformational states as well as their transition probabilities. It estimates hidden conformational states in more robust ways compared to that from ensemble-averaged data although there are limitations in estimating the transition probabilities between minor states. We discuss how to use the machine learning scheme for various experimental measurements including single-molecule time-series trajectories.

  17. A Stochastic Model of Space-Time Variability of Tropical Rainfall: I. Statistics of Spatial Averages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundu, Prasun K.; Bell, Thomas L.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Global maps of rainfall are of great importance in connection with modeling of the earth s climate. Comparison between the maps of rainfall predicted by computer-generated climate models with observation provides a sensitive test for these models. To make such a comparison, one typically needs the total precipitation amount over a large area, which could be hundreds of kilometers in size over extended periods of time of order days or months. This presents a difficult problem since rain varies greatly from place to place as well as in time. Remote sensing methods using ground radar or satellites detect rain over a large area by essentially taking a series of snapshots at infrequent intervals and indirectly deriving the average rain intensity within a collection of pixels , usually several kilometers in size. They measure area average of rain at a particular instant. Rain gauges, on the other hand, record rain accumulation continuously in time but only over a very small area tens of centimeters across, say, the size of a dinner plate. They measure only a time average at a single location. In making use of either method one needs to fill in the gaps in the observation - either the gaps in the area covered or the gaps in time of observation. This involves using statistical models to obtain information about the rain that is missed from what is actually detected. This paper investigates such a statistical model and validates it with rain data collected over the tropical Western Pacific from ship borne radars during TOGA COARE (Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment). The model incorporates a number of commonly observed features of rain. While rain varies rapidly with location and time, the variability diminishes when averaged over larger areas or longer periods of time. Moreover, rain is patchy in nature - at any instant on the average only a certain fraction of the observed pixels contain rain. The fraction of area covered by

  18. Validation of numerical model for cook stove using Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes based solver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Md. Moinul; Hasan, Md. Abdullah Al; Rahman, Md. Mominur; Rahaman, Md. Mashiur

    2017-12-01

    Biomass fired cook stoves, for many years, have been the main cooking appliance for the rural people of developing countries. Several researches have been carried out to the find efficient stoves. In the present study, numerical model of an improved household cook stove is developed to analyze the heat transfer and flow behavior of gas during operation. The numerical model is validated with the experimental results. Computation of the numerical model is executed the using non-premixed combustion model. Reynold's averaged Navier-Stokes (RaNS) equation along with the κ - ɛ model governed the turbulent flow associated within the computed domain. The computational results are in well agreement with the experiment. Developed numerical model can be used to predict the effect of different biomasses on the efficiency of the cook stove.

  19. Modelling tourists arrival using time varying parameter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suciptawati, P.; Sukarsa, K. G.; Kencana, Eka N.

    2017-06-01

    The importance of tourism and its related sectors to support economic development and poverty reduction in many countries increase researchers’ attentions to study and model tourists’ arrival. This work is aimed to demonstrate time varying parameter (TVP) technique to model the arrival of Korean’s tourists to Bali. The number of Korean tourists whom visiting Bali for period January 2010 to December 2015 were used to model the number of Korean’s tourists to Bali (KOR) as dependent variable. The predictors are the exchange rate of Won to IDR (WON), the inflation rate in Korea (INFKR), and the inflation rate in Indonesia (INFID). Observing tourists visit to Bali tend to fluctuate by their nationality, then the model was built by applying TVP and its parameters were approximated using Kalman Filter algorithm. The results showed all of predictor variables (WON, INFKR, INFID) significantly affect KOR. For in-sample and out-of-sample forecast with ARIMA’s forecasted values for the predictors, TVP model gave mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as much as 11.24 percent and 12.86 percent, respectively.

  20. Flow and transport simulation of Madeira River using three depth-averaged two-equation turbulence closure models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-ren Yu

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a numerical simulation in the Amazon water system, aiming to develop a quasi-three-dimensional numerical tool for refined modeling of turbulent flow and passive transport of mass in natural waters. Three depth-averaged two-equation turbulence closure models, k˜−ε˜,k˜−w˜, and k˜−ω˜ , were used to close the non-simplified quasi-three dimensional hydrodynamic fundamental governing equations. The discretized equations were solved with the advanced multi-grid iterative method using non-orthogonal body-fitted coarse and fine grids with collocated variable arrangement. Except for steady flow computation, the processes of contaminant inpouring and plume development at the beginning of discharge, caused by a side-discharge of a tributary, have also been numerically investigated. The three depth-averaged two-equation closure models are all suitable for modeling strong mixing turbulence. The newly established turbulence models such as the k˜−ω˜ model, with a higher order of magnitude of the turbulence parameter, provide a possibility for improving computational precision.

  1. Distribution of average, marginal, and participation tax rates among Czech taxpayers: results from a TAXBEN model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dušek, Libor; Kalíšková, Klára; Münich, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 63, č. 6 (2013), s. 474-504 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) SVV 267801/2013 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : TAXBEN models * average tax rates * marginal tax rates Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.358, year: 2013 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1287_dusek.pdf

  2. Soil-related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A. J. Smith

    2003-01-01

    This analysis is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003 [163602]). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. ''The Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters needed to evaluate doses from pathways associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation and ash

  3. A Tidally Averaged Sediment-Transport Model for San Francisco Bay, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lionberger, Megan A.; Schoellhamer, David H.

    2009-01-01

    A tidally averaged sediment-transport model of San Francisco Bay was incorporated into a tidally averaged salinity box model previously developed and calibrated using salinity, a conservative tracer (Uncles and Peterson, 1995; Knowles, 1996). The Bay is represented in the model by 50 segments composed of two layers: one representing the channel (>5-meter depth) and the other the shallows (0- to 5-meter depth). Calculations are made using a daily time step and simulations can be made on the decadal time scale. The sediment-transport model includes an erosion-deposition algorithm, a bed-sediment algorithm, and sediment boundary conditions. Erosion and deposition of bed sediments are calculated explicitly, and suspended sediment is transported by implicitly solving the advection-dispersion equation. The bed-sediment model simulates the increase in bed strength with depth, owing to consolidation of fine sediments that make up San Francisco Bay mud. The model is calibrated to either net sedimentation calculated from bathymetric-change data or measured suspended-sediment concentration. Specified boundary conditions are the tributary fluxes of suspended sediment and suspended-sediment concentration in the Pacific Ocean. Results of model calibration and validation show that the model simulates the trends in suspended-sediment concentration associated with tidal fluctuations, residual velocity, and wind stress well, although the spring neap tidal suspended-sediment concentration variability was consistently underestimated. Model validation also showed poor simulation of seasonal sediment pulses from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta at Point San Pablo because the pulses enter the Bay over only a few days and the fate of the pulses is determined by intra-tidal deposition and resuspension that are not included in this tidally averaged model. The model was calibrated to net-basin sedimentation to calculate budgets of sediment and sediment-associated contaminants. While

  4. Dynamic Average-Value Modeling of Doubly-Fed Induction Generator Wind Energy Conversion Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahab, Azin

    In a Doubly-fed Induction Generator (DFIG) wind energy conversion system, the rotor of a wound rotor induction generator is connected to the grid via a partial scale ac/ac power electronic converter which controls the rotor frequency and speed. In this research, detailed models of the DFIG wind energy conversion system with Sinusoidal Pulse-Width Modulation (SPWM) scheme and Optimal Pulse-Width Modulation (OPWM) scheme for the power electronic converter are developed in detail in PSCAD/EMTDC. As the computer simulation using the detailed models tends to be computationally extensive, time consuming and even sometimes not practical in terms of speed, two modified approaches (switching-function modeling and average-value modeling) are proposed to reduce the simulation execution time. The results demonstrate that the two proposed approaches reduce the simulation execution time while the simulation results remain close to those obtained using the detailed model simulation.

  5. A Pareto-optimal moving average multigene genetic programming model for daily streamflow prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Kahya, Ercan

    2017-06-01

    Genetic programming (GP) is able to systematically explore alternative model structures of different accuracy and complexity from observed input and output data. The effectiveness of GP in hydrological system identification has been recognized in recent studies. However, selecting a parsimonious (accurate and simple) model from such alternatives still remains a question. This paper proposes a Pareto-optimal moving average multigene genetic programming (MA-MGGP) approach to develop a parsimonious model for single-station streamflow prediction. The three main components of the approach that take us from observed data to a validated model are: (1) data pre-processing, (2) system identification and (3) system simplification. The data pre-processing ingredient uses a simple moving average filter to diminish the lagged prediction effect of stand-alone data-driven models. The multigene ingredient of the model tends to identify the underlying nonlinear system with expressions simpler than classical monolithic GP and, eventually simplification component exploits Pareto front plot to select a parsimonious model through an interactive complexity-efficiency trade-off. The approach was tested using the daily streamflow records from a station on Senoz Stream, Turkey. Comparing to the efficiency results of stand-alone GP, MGGP, and conventional multi linear regression prediction models as benchmarks, the proposed Pareto-optimal MA-MGGP model put forward a parsimonious solution, which has a noteworthy importance of being applied in practice. In addition, the approach allows the user to enter human insight into the problem to examine evolved models and pick the best performing programs out for further analysis.

  6. Time series forecasting using ERNN and QR based on Bayesian model averaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pwasong, Augustine; Sathasivam, Saratha

    2017-08-01

    The Bayesian model averaging technique is a multi-model combination technique. The technique was employed to amalgamate the Elman recurrent neural network (ERNN) technique with the quadratic regression (QR) technique. The amalgamation produced a hybrid technique known as the hybrid ERNN-QR technique. The potentials of forecasting with the hybrid technique are compared with the forecasting capabilities of individual techniques of ERNN and QR. The outcome revealed that the hybrid technique is superior to the individual techniques in the mean square error sense.

  7. The effects of parameter estimation on minimizing the in-control average sample size for the double sampling X bar chart

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael B.C. Khoo

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The double sampling (DS X bar chart, one of the most widely-used charting methods, is superior for detecting small and moderate shifts in the process mean. In a right skewed run length distribution, the median run length (MRL provides a more credible representation of the central tendency than the average run length (ARL, as the mean is greater than the median. In this paper, therefore, MRL is used as the performance criterion instead of the traditional ARL. Generally, the performance of the DS X bar chart is investigated under the assumption of known process parameters. In practice, these parameters are usually estimated from an in-control reference Phase-I dataset. Since the performance of the DS X bar chart is significantly affected by estimation errors, we study the effects of parameter estimation on the MRL-based DS X bar chart when the in-control average sample size is minimised. This study reveals that more than 80 samples are required for the MRL-based DS X bar chart with estimated parameters to perform more favourably than the corresponding chart with known parameters.

  8. Comparative study of dense plasma state equations obtained from different models of average-atom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fromy, Patrice

    1991-01-01

    This research thesis addresses the influence of temperature and density effects on magnitudes such as pressure, energy, ionisation, and on energy levels of a body described according to the approximation of an electrically neutral isolated atomic sphere. Starting from the general formalism of the functional density, with some approximations, the author deduces the Thomas-Fermi, Thomas-Fermi-Dirac, and Thomas-Fermi-Dirac-Weizsaecker models, and an average-atom approximated quantum model. For each of these models, the author presents an explicit method of resolution, as well as the determination of different magnitudes taken into account in this study. For the different studied magnitudes, the author highlights effects due to the influence of temperature and of density, as well as variations due to the different models [fr

  9. Average spectral power changes at the hippocampal electroencephalogram in schizophrenia model induced by ketamine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampaio, Luis Rafael L; Borges, Lucas T N; Silva, Joyse M F; de Andrade, Francisca Roselin O; Barbosa, Talita M; Oliveira, Tatiana Q; Macedo, Danielle; Lima, Ricardo F; Dantas, Leonardo P; Patrocinio, Manoel Cláudio A; do Vale, Otoni C; Vasconcelos, Silvânia M M

    2018-02-01

    The use of ketamine (Ket) as a pharmacological model of schizophrenia is an important tool for understanding the main mechanisms of glutamatergic regulated neural oscillations. Thus, the aim of the current study was to evaluate Ket-induced changes in the average spectral power using the hippocampal quantitative electroencephalography (QEEG). To this end, male Wistar rats were submitted to a stereotactic surgery for the implantation of an electrode in the right hippocampus. After three days, the animals were divided into four groups that were treated for 10 consecutive days with Ket (10, 50, or 100 mg/kg). Brainwaves were captured on the 1st or 10th day, respectively, to acute or repeated treatments. The administration of Ket (10, 50, or 100 mg/kg), compared with controls, induced changes in the hippocampal average spectral power of delta, theta, alpha, gamma low or high waves, after acute or repeated treatments. Therefore, based on the alterations in the average spectral power of hippocampal waves induced by Ket, our findings might provide a basis for the use of hippocampal QEEG in animal models of schizophrenia. © 2017 Société Française de Pharmacologie et de Thérapeutique.

  10. Estimating the average treatment effect on survival based on observational data and using partly conditional modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Qi; Schaubel, Douglas E

    2017-03-01

    Treatments are frequently evaluated in terms of their effect on patient survival. In settings where randomization of treatment is not feasible, observational data are employed, necessitating correction for covariate imbalances. Treatments are usually compared using a hazard ratio. Most existing methods which quantify the treatment effect through the survival function are applicable to treatments assigned at time 0. In the data structure of our interest, subjects typically begin follow-up untreated; time-until-treatment, and the pretreatment death hazard are both heavily influenced by longitudinal covariates; and subjects may experience periods of treatment ineligibility. We propose semiparametric methods for estimating the average difference in restricted mean survival time attributable to a time-dependent treatment, the average effect of treatment among the treated, under current treatment assignment patterns. The pre- and posttreatment models are partly conditional, in that they use the covariate history up to the time of treatment. The pre-treatment model is estimated through recently developed landmark analysis methods. For each treated patient, fitted pre- and posttreatment survival curves are projected out, then averaged in a manner which accounts for the censoring of treatment times. Asymptotic properties are derived and evaluated through simulation. The proposed methods are applied to liver transplant data in order to estimate the effect of liver transplantation on survival among transplant recipients under current practice patterns. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  11. A Two-Factor Autoregressive Moving Average Model Based on Fuzzy Fluctuation Logical Relationships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuang Guan

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Many of the existing autoregressive moving average (ARMA forecast models are based on one main factor. In this paper, we proposed a new two-factor first-order ARMA forecast model based on fuzzy fluctuation logical relationships of both a main factor and a secondary factor of a historical training time series. Firstly, we generated a fluctuation time series (FTS for two factors by calculating the difference of each data point with its previous day, then finding the absolute means of the two FTSs. We then constructed a fuzzy fluctuation time series (FFTS according to the defined linguistic sets. The next step was establishing fuzzy fluctuation logical relation groups (FFLRGs for a two-factor first-order autoregressive (AR(1 model and forecasting the training data with the AR(1 model. Then we built FFLRGs for a two-factor first-order autoregressive moving average (ARMA(1,m model. Lastly, we forecasted test data with the ARMA(1,m model. To illustrate the performance of our model, we used real Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX and Dow Jones datasets as a secondary factor to forecast TAIEX. The experiment results indicate that the proposed two-factor fluctuation ARMA method outperformed the one-factor method based on real historic data. The secondary factor may have some effects on the main factor and thereby impact the forecasting results. Using fuzzified fluctuations rather than fuzzified real data could avoid the influence of extreme values in historic data, which performs negatively while forecasting. To verify the accuracy and effectiveness of the model, we also employed our method to forecast the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHSECI from 2001 to 2015 and the international gold price from 2000 to 2010.

  12. Ensemble averaging and stacking of ARIMA and GSTAR model for rainfall forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anggraeni, D.; Kurnia, I. F.; Hadi, A. F.

    2018-04-01

    Unpredictable rainfall changes can affect human activities, such as in agriculture, aviation, shipping which depend on weather forecasts. Therefore, we need forecasting tools with high accuracy in predicting the rainfall in the future. This research focus on local forcasting of the rainfall at Jember in 2005 until 2016, from 77 rainfall stations. The rainfall here was not only related to the occurrence of the previous of its stations, but also related to others, it’s called the spatial effect. The aim of this research is to apply the GSTAR model, to determine whether there are some correlations of spatial effect between one to another stations. The GSTAR model is an expansion of the space-time model that combines the time-related effects, the locations (stations) in a time series effects, and also the location it self. The GSTAR model will also be compared to the ARIMA model that completely ignores the independent variables. The forcested value of the ARIMA and of the GSTAR models then being combined using the ensemble forecasting technique. The averaging and stacking method of ensemble forecasting method here provide us the best model with higher acuracy model that has the smaller RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) value. Finally, with the best model we can offer a better local rainfall forecasting in Jember for the future.

  13. Modeling of Parameters of Subcritical Assembly SAD

    CERN Document Server

    Petrochenkov, S; Puzynin, I

    2005-01-01

    The accepted conceptual design of the experimental Subcritical Assembly in Dubna (SAD) is based on the MOX core with a nominal unit capacity of 25 kW (thermal). This corresponds to the multiplication coefficient $k_{\\rm eff} =0.95$ and accelerator beam power 1 kW. A subcritical assembly driven with the existing 660 MeV proton accelerator at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research has been modelled in order to make choice of the optimal parameters for the future experiments. The Monte Carlo method was used to simulate neutron spectra, energy deposition and doses calculations. Some of the calculation results are presented in the paper.

  14. Parameter estimation in fractional diffusion models

    CERN Document Server

    Kubilius, Kęstutis; Ralchenko, Kostiantyn

    2017-01-01

    This book is devoted to parameter estimation in diffusion models involving fractional Brownian motion and related processes. For many years now, standard Brownian motion has been (and still remains) a popular model of randomness used to investigate processes in the natural sciences, financial markets, and the economy. The substantial limitation in the use of stochastic diffusion models with Brownian motion is due to the fact that the motion has independent increments, and, therefore, the random noise it generates is “white,” i.e., uncorrelated. However, many processes in the natural sciences, computer networks and financial markets have long-term or short-term dependences, i.e., the correlations of random noise in these processes are non-zero, and slowly or rapidly decrease with time. In particular, models of financial markets demonstrate various kinds of memory and usually this memory is modeled by fractional Brownian diffusion. Therefore, the book constructs diffusion models with memory and provides s...

  15. Modeling an Application's Theoretical Minimum and Average Transactional Response Times

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paiz, Mary Rose [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-04-01

    The theoretical minimum transactional response time of an application serves as a ba- sis for the expected response time. The lower threshold for the minimum response time represents the minimum amount of time that the application should take to complete a transaction. Knowing the lower threshold is beneficial in detecting anomalies that are re- sults of unsuccessful transactions. On the converse, when an application's response time falls above an upper threshold, there is likely an anomaly in the application that is causing unusual performance issues in the transaction. This report explains how the non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value distribution is used to estimate the lower threshold of an ap- plication's daily minimum transactional response time. It also explains how the seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average time series model is used to estimate the upper threshold for an application's average transactional response time.

  16. ANALISIS CURAH HUJAN DAN DEBIT MODEL SWAT DENGAN METODE MOVING AVERAGE DI DAS CILIWUNG HULU

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Defri Satiya Zuma

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Watershed can be regarded as a hydrological system that has a function in transforming rainwater as an input into outputs such as flow and sediment. The transformation of inputs into outputs has specific forms and properties. The transformation involves many processes, including processes occurred on the surface of the land, river basins, in soil and aquifer. This study aimed to apply the SWAT model  in  Ciliwung Hulu Watershed, asses the effect of average rainfall  on 3 days, 5 days, 7 days and 10 days of the hydrological characteristics in Ciliwung Hulu Watershed. The correlation coefficient (r between rainfall and discharge was positive, it indicated that there was an unidirectional relationship between rainfall and discharge in the upstream, midstream and downstream of the watershed. The upper limit ratio of discharge had a downward trend from upstream to downstream, while the lower limit ratio of  discharge had an upward trend from upstream to downstream. It showed that the discharge peak in Ciliwung  Hulu Watershed from upstream to downstream had a downward trend while the baseflow from upstream to downstream had an upward trend. It showed that the upstream of Ciliwung Hulu Watershed had the highest ratio of discharge peak  and baseflow so it needs the soil and water conservations and technical civil measures. The discussion concluded that the SWAT model could be well applied in Ciliwung Hulu Watershed, the most affecting average rainfall on the hydrological characteristics was the average rainfall of 10 days. On average  rainfall of 10 days, all components had contributed maximally for river discharge.

  17. Radiative forcing and climate metrics for ozone precursor emissions: the impact of multi-model averaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. R. MacIntosh

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Multi-model ensembles are frequently used to assess understanding of the response of ozone and methane lifetime to changes in emissions of ozone precursors such as NOx, VOCs (volatile organic compounds and CO. When these ozone changes are used to calculate radiative forcing (RF (and climate metrics such as the global warming potential (GWP and global temperature-change potential (GTP there is a methodological choice, determined partly by the available computing resources, as to whether the mean ozone (and methane concentration changes are input to the radiation code, or whether each model's ozone and methane changes are used as input, with the average RF computed from the individual model RFs. We use data from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution source–receptor global chemical transport model ensemble to assess the impact of this choice for emission changes in four regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia. We conclude that using the multi-model mean ozone and methane responses is accurate for calculating the mean RF, with differences up to 0.6% for CO, 0.7% for VOCs and 2% for NOx. Differences of up to 60% for NOx 7% for VOCs and 3% for CO are introduced into the 20 year GWP. The differences for the 20 year GTP are smaller than for the GWP for NOx, and similar for the other species. However, estimates of the standard deviation calculated from the ensemble-mean input fields (where the standard deviation at each point on the model grid is added to or subtracted from the mean field are almost always substantially larger in RF, GWP and GTP metrics than the true standard deviation, and can be larger than the model range for short-lived ozone RF, and for the 20 and 100 year GWP and 100 year GTP. The order of averaging has most impact on the metrics for NOx, as the net values for these quantities is the residual of the sum of terms of opposing signs. For example, the standard deviation for the 20 year GWP is 2–3

  18. Valuing structure, model uncertainty and model averaging in vector autoregressive processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.W. Strachan (Rodney); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractEconomic policy decisions are often informed by empirical analysis based on accurate econometric modeling. However, a decision-maker is usually only interested in good estimates of outcomes, while an analyst must also be interested in estimating the model. Accurate inference on

  19. Moose models with vanishing S parameter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casalbuoni, R.; De Curtis, S.; Dominici, D.

    2004-01-01

    In the linear moose framework, which naturally emerges in deconstruction models, we show that there is a unique solution for the vanishing of the S parameter at the lowest order in the weak interactions. We consider an effective gauge theory based on K SU(2) gauge groups, K+1 chiral fields, and electroweak groups SU(2) L and U(1) Y at the ends of the chain of the moose. S vanishes when a link in the moose chain is cut. As a consequence one has to introduce a dynamical nonlocal field connecting the two ends of the moose. Then the model acquires an additional custodial symmetry which protects this result. We examine also the possibility of a strong suppression of S through an exponential behavior of the link couplings as suggested by the Randall Sundrum metric

  20. Adaptive and self-averaging Thouless-Anderson-Palmer mean-field theory for probabilistic modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Opper, Manfred; Winther, Ole

    2001-01-01

    We develop a generalization of the Thouless-Anderson-Palmer (TAP) mean-field approach of disorder physics. which makes the method applicable to the computation of approximate averages in probabilistic models for real data. In contrast to the conventional TAP approach, where the knowledge...... of the distribution of couplings between the random variables is required, our method adapts to the concrete set of couplings. We show the significance of the approach in two ways: Our approach reproduces replica symmetric results for a wide class of toy models (assuming a nonglassy phase) with given disorder...... distributions in the thermodynamic limit. On the other hand, simulations on a real data model demonstrate that the method achieves more accurate predictions as compared to conventional TAP approaches....

  1. Reynolds averaged turbulence modelling using deep neural networks with embedded invariance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ling, Julia; Kurzawski, Andrew; Templeton, Jeremy

    2016-01-01

    There exists significant demand for improved Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) turbulence models that are informed by and can represent a richer set of turbulence physics. This paper presents a method of using deep neural networks to learn a model for the Reynolds stress anisotropy tensor from high-fidelity simulation data. A novel neural network architecture is proposed which uses a multiplicative layer with an invariant tensor basis to embed Galilean invariance into the predicted anisotropy tensor. It is demonstrated that this neural network architecture provides improved prediction accuracy compared with a generic neural network architecture that does not embed this invariance property. Furthermore, the Reynolds stress anisotropy predictions of this invariant neural network are propagated through to the velocity field for two test cases. For both test cases, significant improvement versus baseline RANS linear eddy viscosity and nonlinear eddy viscosity models is demonstrated.

  2. Application of the Periodic Average System Model in Dam Deformation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yueqian Shen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Dams are among the most important hydraulic engineering facilities used for water supply, flood control, and hydroelectric power. Monitoring of dams is crucial since deformation might have occurred. How to obtain the deformation information and then judge the safe conditions is the key and difficult problem in dam deformation monitoring field. This paper proposes the periodic average system model and creates the concept of “settlement activity” based on the dam deformation issue. Long-term deformation monitoring data is carried out in a pumped-storage power station, this model combined with settlement activity is used to make the single point deformation analysis, and then the whole settlement activity profile is drawn by clustering analysis. Considering the cumulative settlement value of every point, the dam deformation trend is analyzed in an intuitive effect way. The analysis mode of combined single point with multipoints is realized. The results show that the key deformation information of the dam can be easily grasped by the application of the periodic average system model combined with the distribution diagram of settlement activity. And, above all, the ideas of this research provide an effective method for dam deformation analysis.

  3. Analysis of baseline, average, and longitudinally measured blood pressure data using linear mixed models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Ahmed; Beyene, Joseph

    2014-01-01

    This article compares baseline, average, and longitudinal data analysis methods for identifying genetic variants in genome-wide association study using the Genetic Analysis Workshop 18 data. We apply methods that include (a) linear mixed models with baseline measures, (b) random intercept linear mixed models with mean measures outcome, and (c) random intercept linear mixed models with longitudinal measurements. In the linear mixed models, covariates are included as fixed effects, whereas relatedness among individuals is incorporated as the variance-covariance structure of the random effect for the individuals. The overall strategy of applying linear mixed models decorrelate the data is based on Aulchenko et al.'s GRAMMAR. By analyzing systolic and diastolic blood pressure, which are used separately as outcomes, we compare the 3 methods in identifying a known genetic variant that is associated with blood pressure from chromosome 3 and simulated phenotype data. We also analyze the real phenotype data to illustrate the methods. We conclude that the linear mixed model with longitudinal measurements of diastolic blood pressure is the most accurate at identifying the known single-nucleotide polymorphism among the methods, but linear mixed models with baseline measures perform best with systolic blood pressure as the outcome.

  4. Banking Crisis Early Warning Model based on a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taha Zaghdoudi

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The succession of banking crises in which most have resulted in huge economic and financial losses, prompted several authors to study their determinants. These authors constructed early warning models to prevent their occurring. It is in this same vein as our study takes its inspiration. In particular, we have developed a warning model of banking crises based on a Bayesian approach. The results of this approach have allowed us to identify the involvement of the decline in bank profitability, deterioration of the competitiveness of the traditional intermediation, banking concentration and higher real interest rates in triggering bank crisis.

  5. A unified framework for benchmark dose estimation applied to mixed models and model averaging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ritz, Christian; Gerhard, Daniel; Hothorn, Ludwig A.

    2013-01-01

    for hierarchical data structures, reflecting increasingly common types of assay data. We illustrate the usefulness of the methodology by means of a cytotoxicology example where the sensitivity of two types of assays are evaluated and compared. By means of a simulation study, we show that the proposed framework......This article develops a framework for benchmark dose estimation that allows intrinsically nonlinear dose-response models to be used for continuous data in much the same way as is already possible for quantal data. This means that the same dose-response model equations may be applied to both...

  6. Modelling river bank erosion processes and mass failure mechanisms using 2-D depth averaged numerical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Die Moran, Andres; El kadi Abderrezzak, Kamal; Tassi, Pablo; Herouvet, Jean-Michel

    2014-05-01

    Bank erosion is a key process that may cause a large number of economic and environmental problems (e.g. land loss, damage to structures and aquatic habitat). Stream bank erosion (toe erosion and mass failure) represents an important form of channel morphology changes and a significant source of sediment. With the advances made in computational techniques, two-dimensional (2-D) numerical models have become valuable tools for investigating flow and sediment transport in open channels at large temporal and spatial scales. However, the implementation of mass failure process in 2D numerical models is still a challenging task. In this paper, a simple, innovative algorithm is implemented in the Telemac-Mascaret modeling platform to handle bank failure: failure occurs whether the actual slope of one given bed element is higher than the internal friction angle. The unstable bed elements are rotated around an appropriate axis, ensuring mass conservation. Mass failure of a bank due to slope instability is applied at the end of each sediment transport evolution iteration, once the bed evolution due to bed load (and/or suspended load) has been computed, but before the global sediment mass balance is verified. This bank failure algorithm is successfully tested using two laboratory experimental cases. Then, bank failure in a 1:40 scale physical model of the Rhine River composed of non-uniform material is simulated. The main features of the bank erosion and failure are correctly reproduced in the numerical simulations, namely the mass wasting at the bank toe, followed by failure at the bank head, and subsequent transport of the mobilised material in an aggradation front. Volumes of eroded material obtained are of the same order of magnitude as the volumes measured during the laboratory tests.

  7. Assimilation of time-averaged observations in a quasi-geostrophic atmospheric jet model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huntley, Helga S. [University of Washington, Department of Applied Mathematics, Seattle, WA (United States); University of Delaware, School of Marine Science and Policy, Newark, DE (United States); Hakim, Gregory J. [University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA (United States)

    2010-11-15

    The problem of reconstructing past climates from a sparse network of noisy time-averaged observations is considered with a novel ensemble Kalman filter approach. Results for a sparse network of 100 idealized observations for a quasi-geostrophic model of a jet interacting with a mountain reveal that, for a wide range of observation averaging times, analysis errors are reduced by about 50% relative to the control case without assimilation. Results are robust to changes to observational error, the number of observations, and an imperfect model. Specifically, analysis errors are reduced relative to the control case for observations having errors up to three times the climatological variance for a fixed 100-station network, and for networks consisting of ten or more stations when observational errors are fixed at one-third the climatological variance. In the limit of small numbers of observations, station location becomes critically important, motivating an optimally determined network. A network of fifteen optimally determined observations reduces analysis errors by 30% relative to the control, as compared to 50% for a randomly chosen network of 100 observations. (orig.)

  8. Statistical aspects of autoregressive-moving average models in the assessment of radon mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunn, J.E.; Henschel, D.B.

    1989-01-01

    Radon values, as reflected by hourly scintillation counts, seem dominated by major, pseudo-periodic, random fluctuations. This methodological paper reports a moderate degree of success in modeling these data using relatively simple autoregressive-moving average models to assess the effectiveness of radon mitigation techniques in existing housing. While accounting for the natural correlation of successive observations, familiar summary statistics such as steady state estimates, standard errors, confidence limits, and tests of hypothesis are produced. The Box-Jenkins approach is used throughout. In particular, intervention analysis provides an objective means of assessing the effectiveness of an active mitigation measure, such as a fan off/on cycle. Occasionally, failure to declare a significant intervention has suggested a means of remedial action in the data collection procedure

  9. Models for setting ATM parameter values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blaabjerg, Søren; Gravey, A.; Romæuf, L.

    1996-01-01

    essential to set traffic characteristic values that are relevant to the considered cell stream, and that ensure that the amount of non-conforming traffic is small. Using a queueing model representation for the GCRA formalism, several methods are available for choosing the traffic characteristics. This paper......In ATM networks, a user should negotiate at connection set-up a traffic contract which includes traffic characteristics and requested QoS. The traffic characteristics currently considered are the Peak Cell Rate, the Sustainable Cell Rate, the Intrinsic Burst Tolerance and the Cell Delay Variation...... (CDV) tolerance(s). The values taken by these traffic parameters characterize the so-called ''Worst Case Traffic'' that is used by CAC procedures for accepting a new connection and allocating resources to it. Conformance to the negotiated traffic characteristics is defined, at the ingress User...

  10. Forecasting Construction Tender Price Index in Ghana using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernest Kissi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Prices of construction resources keep on fluctuating due to unstable economic situations that have been experienced over the years. Clients knowledge of their financial commitments toward their intended project remains the basis for their final decision. The use of construction tender price index provides a realistic estimate at the early stage of the project. Tender price index (TPI is influenced by various economic factors, hence there are several statistical techniques that have been employed in forecasting. Some of these include regression, time series, vector error correction among others. However, in recent times the integrated modelling approach is gaining popularity due to its ability to give powerful predictive accuracy. Thus, in line with this assumption, the aim of this study is to apply autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX in modelling TPI. The results showed that ARIMAX model has a better predictive ability than the use of the single approach. The study further confirms the earlier position of previous research of the need to use the integrated model technique in forecasting TPI. This model will assist practitioners to forecast the future values of tender price index. Although the study focuses on the Ghanaian economy, the findings can be broadly applicable to other developing countries which share similar economic characteristics.

  11. Dual-component model of respiratory motion based on the periodic autoregressive moving average (periodic ARMA) method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCall, K C; Jeraj, R

    2007-01-01

    A new approach to the problem of modelling and predicting respiration motion has been implemented. This is a dual-component model, which describes the respiration motion as a non-periodic time series superimposed onto a periodic waveform. A periodic autoregressive moving average algorithm has been used to define a mathematical model of the periodic and non-periodic components of the respiration motion. The periodic components of the motion were found by projecting multiple inhale-exhale cycles onto a common subspace. The component of the respiration signal that is left after removing this periodicity is a partially autocorrelated time series and was modelled as an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process. The accuracy of the periodic ARMA model with respect to fluctuation in amplitude and variation in length of cycles has been assessed. A respiration phantom was developed to simulate the inter-cycle variations seen in free-breathing and coached respiration patterns. At ±14% variability in cycle length and maximum amplitude of motion, the prediction errors were 4.8% of the total motion extent for a 0.5 s ahead prediction, and 9.4% at 1.0 s lag. The prediction errors increased to 11.6% at 0.5 s and 21.6% at 1.0 s when the respiration pattern had ±34% variations in both these parameters. Our results have shown that the accuracy of the periodic ARMA model is more strongly dependent on the variations in cycle length than the amplitude of the respiration cycles

  12. Calculation of average molecular parameters, functional groups, and a surrogate molecule for heavy fuel oils using 1H and 13C NMR spectroscopy

    KAUST Repository

    Abdul Jameel, Abdul Gani

    2016-04-22

    Heavy fuel oil (HFO) is primarily used as fuel in marine engines and in boilers to generate electricity. Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) is a powerful analytical tool for structure elucidation and in this study, 1H NMR and 13C NMR spectroscopy were used for the structural characterization of 2 HFO samples. The NMR data was combined with elemental analysis and average molecular weight to quantify average molecular parameters (AMPs), such as the number of paraffinic carbons, naphthenic carbons, aromatic hydrogens, olefinic hydrogens, etc. in the HFO samples. Recent formulae published in the literature were used for calculating various derived AMPs like aromaticity factor 〖(f〗_a), C/H ratio, average paraffinic chain length (¯n), naphthenic ring number 〖(R〗_N), aromatic ring number〖 (R〗_A), total ring number〖 (R〗_T), aromatic condensation index (φ) and aromatic condensation degree (Ω). These derived AMPs help in understanding the overall structure of the fuel. A total of 19 functional groups were defined to represent the HFO samples, and their respective concentrations were calculated by formulating balance equations that equate the concentration of the functional groups with the concentration of the AMPs. Heteroatoms like sulfur, nitrogen, and oxygen were also included in the functional groups. Surrogate molecules were finally constructed to represent the average structure of the molecules present in the HFO samples. This surrogate molecule can be used for property estimation of the HFO samples and also serve as a surrogate to represent the molecular structure for use in kinetic studies.

  13. Calculation of average molecular parameters, functional groups, and a surrogate molecule for heavy fuel oils using 1H and 13C NMR spectroscopy

    KAUST Repository

    Abdul Jameel, Abdul Gani; Elbaz, Ayman M.; Emwas, Abdul-Hamid M.; Roberts, William L.; Sarathy, Mani

    2016-01-01

    Heavy fuel oil (HFO) is primarily used as fuel in marine engines and in boilers to generate electricity. Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) is a powerful analytical tool for structure elucidation and in this study, 1H NMR and 13C NMR spectroscopy were used for the structural characterization of 2 HFO samples. The NMR data was combined with elemental analysis and average molecular weight to quantify average molecular parameters (AMPs), such as the number of paraffinic carbons, naphthenic carbons, aromatic hydrogens, olefinic hydrogens, etc. in the HFO samples. Recent formulae published in the literature were used for calculating various derived AMPs like aromaticity factor 〖(f〗_a), C/H ratio, average paraffinic chain length (¯n), naphthenic ring number 〖(R〗_N), aromatic ring number〖 (R〗_A), total ring number〖 (R〗_T), aromatic condensation index (φ) and aromatic condensation degree (Ω). These derived AMPs help in understanding the overall structure of the fuel. A total of 19 functional groups were defined to represent the HFO samples, and their respective concentrations were calculated by formulating balance equations that equate the concentration of the functional groups with the concentration of the AMPs. Heteroatoms like sulfur, nitrogen, and oxygen were also included in the functional groups. Surrogate molecules were finally constructed to represent the average structure of the molecules present in the HFO samples. This surrogate molecule can be used for property estimation of the HFO samples and also serve as a surrogate to represent the molecular structure for use in kinetic studies.

  14. Average stopping powers for electron and photon sources for radiobiological modeling and microdosimetric applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vassiliev, Oleg N.; Kry, Stephen F.; Grosshans, David R.; Mohan, Radhe

    2018-03-01

    This study concerns calculation of the average electronic stopping power for photon and electron sources. It addresses two problems that have not yet been fully resolved. The first is defining the electron spectrum used for averaging in a way that is most suitable for radiobiological modeling. We define it as the spectrum of electrons entering the sensitive to radiation volume (SV) within the cell nucleus, at the moment they enter the SV. For this spectrum we derive a formula that combines linearly the fluence spectrum and the source spectrum. The latter is the distribution of initial energies of electrons produced by a source. Previous studies used either the fluence or source spectra, but not both, thereby neglecting a part of the complete spectrum. Our derived formula reduces to these two prior methods in the case of high and low energy sources, respectively. The second problem is extending electron spectra to low energies. Previous studies used an energy cut-off on the order of 1 keV. However, as we show, even for high energy sources, such as 60Co, electrons with energies below 1 keV contribute about 30% to the dose. In this study all the spectra were calculated with Geant4-DNA code and a cut-off energy of only 11 eV. We present formulas for calculating frequency- and dose-average stopping powers, numerical results for several important electron and photon sources, and tables with all the data needed to use our formulas for arbitrary electron and photon sources producing electrons with initial energies up to  ∼1 MeV.

  15. SU-F-R-44: Modeling Lung SBRT Tumor Response Using Bayesian Network Averaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diamant, A; Ybarra, N; Seuntjens, J; El Naqa, I

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The prediction of tumor control after a patient receives lung SBRT (stereotactic body radiation therapy) has proven to be challenging, due to the complex interactions between an individual’s biology and dose-volume metrics. Many of these variables have predictive power when combined, a feature that we exploit using a graph modeling approach based on Bayesian networks. This provides a probabilistic framework that allows for accurate and visually intuitive predictive modeling. The aim of this study is to uncover possible interactions between an individual patient’s characteristics and generate a robust model capable of predicting said patient’s treatment outcome. Methods: We investigated a cohort of 32 prospective patients from multiple institutions whom had received curative SBRT to the lung. The number of patients exhibiting tumor failure was observed to be 7 (event rate of 22%). The serum concentration of 5 biomarkers previously associated with NSCLC (non-small cell lung cancer) was measured pre-treatment. A total of 21 variables were analyzed including: dose-volume metrics with BED (biologically effective dose) correction and clinical variables. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique estimated the posterior probability distribution of the potential graphical structures. The probability of tumor failure was then estimated by averaging the top 100 graphs and applying Baye’s rule. Results: The optimal Bayesian model generated throughout this study incorporated the PTV volume, the serum concentration of the biomarker EGFR (epidermal growth factor receptor) and prescription BED. This predictive model recorded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.94(1), providing better performance compared to competing methods in other literature. Conclusion: The use of biomarkers in conjunction with dose-volume metrics allows for the generation of a robust predictive model. The preliminary results of this report demonstrate that it is possible

  16. SU-F-R-44: Modeling Lung SBRT Tumor Response Using Bayesian Network Averaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diamant, A; Ybarra, N; Seuntjens, J [McGill University, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); El Naqa, I [University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: The prediction of tumor control after a patient receives lung SBRT (stereotactic body radiation therapy) has proven to be challenging, due to the complex interactions between an individual’s biology and dose-volume metrics. Many of these variables have predictive power when combined, a feature that we exploit using a graph modeling approach based on Bayesian networks. This provides a probabilistic framework that allows for accurate and visually intuitive predictive modeling. The aim of this study is to uncover possible interactions between an individual patient’s characteristics and generate a robust model capable of predicting said patient’s treatment outcome. Methods: We investigated a cohort of 32 prospective patients from multiple institutions whom had received curative SBRT to the lung. The number of patients exhibiting tumor failure was observed to be 7 (event rate of 22%). The serum concentration of 5 biomarkers previously associated with NSCLC (non-small cell lung cancer) was measured pre-treatment. A total of 21 variables were analyzed including: dose-volume metrics with BED (biologically effective dose) correction and clinical variables. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique estimated the posterior probability distribution of the potential graphical structures. The probability of tumor failure was then estimated by averaging the top 100 graphs and applying Baye’s rule. Results: The optimal Bayesian model generated throughout this study incorporated the PTV volume, the serum concentration of the biomarker EGFR (epidermal growth factor receptor) and prescription BED. This predictive model recorded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.94(1), providing better performance compared to competing methods in other literature. Conclusion: The use of biomarkers in conjunction with dose-volume metrics allows for the generation of a robust predictive model. The preliminary results of this report demonstrate that it is possible

  17. Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models

    KAUST Repository

    Xun, Xiaolei; Cao, Jiguo; Mallick, Bani; Maity, Arnab; Carroll, Raymond J.

    2013-01-01

    PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus

  18. Inverse modeling of hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in the Community Land Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Y.; Hou, Z.; Huang, M.; Tian, F.; Leung, L. Ruby

    2013-12-01

    This study demonstrates the possibility of inverting hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4). Previous studies showed that surface flux and runoff calculations are sensitive to major hydrologic parameters in CLM4 over different watersheds, and illustrated the necessity and possibility of parameter calibration. Both deterministic least-square fitting and stochastic Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-Bayesian inversion approaches are evaluated by applying them to CLM4 at selected sites with different climate and soil conditions. The unknowns to be estimated include surface and subsurface runoff generation parameters and vadose zone soil water parameters. We find that using model parameters calibrated by the sampling-based stochastic inversion approaches provides significant improvements in the model simulations compared to using default CLM4 parameter values, and that as more information comes in, the predictive intervals (ranges of posterior distributions) of the calibrated parameters become narrower. In general, parameters that are identified to be significant through sensitivity analyses and statistical tests are better calibrated than those with weak or nonlinear impacts on flux or runoff observations. Temporal resolution of observations has larger impacts on the results of inverse modeling using heat flux data than runoff data. Soil and vegetation cover have important impacts on parameter sensitivities, leading to different patterns of posterior distributions of parameters at different sites. Overall, the MCMC-Bayesian inversion approach effectively and reliably improves the simulation of CLM under different climates and environmental conditions. Bayesian model averaging of the posterior estimates with different reference acceptance probabilities can smooth the posterior distribution and provide more reliable parameter estimates, but at the expense of wider uncertainty bounds.

  19. Reynolds-Averaged Turbulence Model Assessment for a Highly Back-Pressured Isolator Flowfield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baurle, Robert A.; Middleton, Troy F.; Wilson, L. G.

    2012-01-01

    The use of computational fluid dynamics in scramjet engine component development is widespread in the existing literature. Unfortunately, the quantification of model-form uncertainties is rarely addressed with anything other than sensitivity studies, requiring that the computational results be intimately tied to and calibrated against existing test data. This practice must be replaced with a formal uncertainty quantification process for computational fluid dynamics to play an expanded role in the system design, development, and flight certification process. Due to ground test facility limitations, this expanded role is believed to be a requirement by some in the test and evaluation community if scramjet engines are to be given serious consideration as a viable propulsion device. An effort has been initiated at the NASA Langley Research Center to validate several turbulence closure models used for Reynolds-averaged simulations of scramjet isolator flows. The turbulence models considered were the Menter BSL, Menter SST, Wilcox 1998, Wilcox 2006, and the Gatski-Speziale explicit algebraic Reynolds stress models. The simulations were carried out using the VULCAN computational fluid dynamics package developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. A procedure to quantify the numerical errors was developed to account for discretization errors in the validation process. This procedure utilized the grid convergence index defined by Roache as a bounding estimate for the numerical error. The validation data was collected from a mechanically back-pressured constant area (1 2 inch) isolator model with an isolator entrance Mach number of 2.5. As expected, the model-form uncertainty was substantial for the shock-dominated, massively separated flowfield within the isolator as evidenced by a 6 duct height variation in shock train length depending on the turbulence model employed. Generally speaking, the turbulence models that did not include an explicit stress limiter more closely

  20. Model parameters for representative wetland plant functional groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Amber S.; Kiniry, James R.; Mushet, David M.; Smith, Loren M.; McMurry, Scott T.; Attebury, Kelly; Lang, Megan; McCarty, Gregory W.; Shaffer, Jill A.; Effland, William R.; Johnson, Mari-Vaughn V.

    2017-01-01

    Wetlands provide a wide variety of ecosystem services including water quality remediation, biodiversity refugia, groundwater recharge, and floodwater storage. Realistic estimation of ecosystem service benefits associated with wetlands requires reasonable simulation of the hydrology of each site and realistic simulation of the upland and wetland plant growth cycles. Objectives of this study were to quantify leaf area index (LAI), light extinction coefficient (k), and plant nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) concentrations in natural stands of representative plant species for some major plant functional groups in the United States. Functional groups in this study were based on these parameters and plant growth types to enable process-based modeling. We collected data at four locations representing some of the main wetland regions of the United States. At each site, we collected on-the-ground measurements of fraction of light intercepted, LAI, and dry matter within the 2013–2015 growing seasons. Maximum LAI and k variables showed noticeable variations among sites and years, while overall averages and functional group averages give useful estimates for multisite simulation modeling. Variation within each species gives an indication of what can be expected in such natural ecosystems. For P and K, the concentrations from highest to lowest were spikerush (Eleocharis macrostachya), reed canary grass (Phalaris arundinacea), smartweed (Polygonum spp.), cattail (Typha spp.), and hardstem bulrush (Schoenoplectus acutus). Spikerush had the highest N concentration, followed by smartweed, bulrush, reed canary grass, and then cattail. These parameters will be useful for the actual wetland species measured and for the wetland plant functional groups they represent. These parameters and the associated process-based models offer promise as valuable tools for evaluating environmental benefits of wetlands and for evaluating impacts of various agronomic practices in

  1. Insight into model mechanisms through automatic parameter fitting: a new methodological framework for model development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tøndel, Kristin; Niederer, Steven A; Land, Sander; Smith, Nicolas P

    2014-05-20

    average 15% of the mean values over the succeeding parameter sets. Our results indicate that the presented approach is effective for comparing model alternatives and reducing models to the minimum complexity replicating measured data. We therefore believe that this approach has significant potential for reparameterising existing frameworks, for identification of redundant model components of large biophysical models and to increase their predictive capacity.

  2. Modelling and analysis of turbulent datasets using Auto Regressive Moving Average processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faranda, Davide; Dubrulle, Bérengère; Daviaud, François; Pons, Flavio Maria Emanuele; Saint-Michel, Brice; Herbert, Éric; Cortet, Pierre-Philippe

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a novel way to extract information from turbulent datasets by applying an Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) statistical analysis. Such analysis goes well beyond the analysis of the mean flow and of the fluctuations and links the behavior of the recorded time series to a discrete version of a stochastic differential equation which is able to describe the correlation structure in the dataset. We introduce a new index Υ that measures the difference between the resulting analysis and the Obukhov model of turbulence, the simplest stochastic model reproducing both Richardson law and the Kolmogorov spectrum. We test the method on datasets measured in a von Kármán swirling flow experiment. We found that the ARMA analysis is well correlated with spatial structures of the flow, and can discriminate between two different flows with comparable mean velocities, obtained by changing the forcing. Moreover, we show that the Υ is highest in regions where shear layer vortices are present, thereby establishing a link between deviations from the Kolmogorov model and coherent structures. These deviations are consistent with the ones observed by computing the Hurst exponents for the same time series. We show that some salient features of the analysis are preserved when considering global instead of local observables. Finally, we analyze flow configurations with multistability features where the ARMA technique is efficient in discriminating different stability branches of the system

  3. Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to calibrate probabilistic surface temperature forecasts over Iran

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soltanzadeh, I. [Tehran Univ. (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Inst. of Geophysics; Azadi, M.; Vakili, G.A. [Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research Center (ASMERC), Teheran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2011-07-01

    Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), an attempt was made to obtain calibrated probabilistic numerical forecasts of 2-m temperature over Iran. The ensemble employs three limited area models (WRF, MM5 and HRM), with WRF used with five different configurations. Initial and boundary conditions for MM5 and WRF are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) and for HRM the initial and boundary conditions come from analysis of Global Model Europe (GME) of the German Weather Service. The resulting ensemble of seven members was run for a period of 6 months (from December 2008 to May 2009) over Iran. The 48-h raw ensemble outputs were calibrated using BMA technique for 120 days using a 40 days training sample of forecasts and relative verification data. The calibrated probabilistic forecasts were assessed using rank histogram and attribute diagrams. Results showed that application of BMA improved the reliability of the raw ensemble. Using the weighted ensemble mean forecast as a deterministic forecast it was found that the deterministic-style BMA forecasts performed usually better than the best member's deterministic forecast. (orig.)

  4. Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA to calibrate probabilistic surface temperature forecasts over Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Soltanzadeh

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA, an attempt was made to obtain calibrated probabilistic numerical forecasts of 2-m temperature over Iran. The ensemble employs three limited area models (WRF, MM5 and HRM, with WRF used with five different configurations. Initial and boundary conditions for MM5 and WRF are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS and for HRM the initial and boundary conditions come from analysis of Global Model Europe (GME of the German Weather Service. The resulting ensemble of seven members was run for a period of 6 months (from December 2008 to May 2009 over Iran. The 48-h raw ensemble outputs were calibrated using BMA technique for 120 days using a 40 days training sample of forecasts and relative verification data. The calibrated probabilistic forecasts were assessed using rank histogram and attribute diagrams. Results showed that application of BMA improved the reliability of the raw ensemble. Using the weighted ensemble mean forecast as a deterministic forecast it was found that the deterministic-style BMA forecasts performed usually better than the best member's deterministic forecast.

  5. Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, A. J.

    2004-01-01

    analysis revises the previous version with the same name (BSC 2003 [DIRS 161239]), which was itself a revision of one titled ''Evaluate Soil/Radionuclide Removal by Erosion and Leaching'' (CRWMS M and O 2001 [DIRS 152517]). In Revision 00 of this report, the data generated were fixed values (i.e., taking no account of uncertainty and variability). Revision 01 (BSC 2003 [DIRS 161239]) incorporated uncertainty and variability into the values for the bulk density, elemental partition coefficients, average annual loss of soil from erosion, resuspension enhancement factor, and field capacity water content. The current revision of this document improves the transparency and traceability of the products without changing the details of the analysis. This analysis report supports the treatment of six of the features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the Yucca Mountain reference biosphere (DTN: MO0407SEPFEPLA.000 [DIRS 170760]). The use of the more recent FEP list in DTN: MO0407SEPFEPLA.000 [DIRS 170760] represents a deviation from the detail provided in the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]), which referenced a previous version of the FEP list. The parameters developed in this report support treatment of these six FEPs addressed in the biosphere model that are listed in Table 1-1. Inclusion and treatment of FEPs in the biosphere model is described in the ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460], Section 6.2)

  6. Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. J. Smith

    2004-09-09

    was defined as AP-SIII.9Q, ''Scientific Analyses''. This analysis revises the previous version with the same name (BSC 2003 [DIRS 161239]), which was itself a revision of one titled ''Evaluate Soil/Radionuclide Removal by Erosion and Leaching'' (CRWMS M&O 2001 [DIRS 152517]). In Revision 00 of this report, the data generated were fixed values (i.e., taking no account of uncertainty and variability). Revision 01 (BSC 2003 [DIRS 161239]) incorporated uncertainty and variability into the values for the bulk density, elemental partition coefficients, average annual loss of soil from erosion, resuspension enhancement factor, and field capacity water content. The current revision of this document improves the transparency and traceability of the products without changing the details of the analysis. This analysis report supports the treatment of six of the features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the Yucca Mountain reference biosphere (DTN: MO0407SEPFEPLA.000 [DIRS 170760]). The use of the more recent FEP list in DTN: MO0407SEPFEPLA.000 [DIRS 170760] represents a deviation from the detail provided in the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]), which referenced a previous version of the FEP list. The parameters developed in this report support treatment of these six FEPs addressed in the biosphere model that are listed in Table 1-1. Inclusion and treatment of FEPs in the biosphere model is described in the ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460], Section 6.2).

  7. Hybrid Large Eddy Simulation / Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes Modeling in Directed Energy Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zilberter, Ilya Alexandrovich

    In this work, a hybrid Large Eddy Simulation / Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes (LES/RANS) turbulence model is applied to simulate two flows relevant to directed energy applications. The flow solver blends the Menter Baseline turbulence closure near solid boundaries with a Lenormand-type subgrid model in the free-stream with a blending function that employs the ratio of estimated inner and outer turbulent length scales. A Mach 2.2 mixing nozzle/diffuser system representative of a gas laser is simulated under a range of exit pressures to assess the ability of the model to predict the dynamics of the shock train. The simulation captures the location of the shock train responsible for pressure recovery but under-predicts the rate of pressure increase. Predicted turbulence production at the wall is found to be highly sensitive to the behavior of the RANS turbulence model. A Mach 2.3, high-Reynolds number, three-dimensional cavity flow is also simulated in order to compute the wavefront aberrations of an optical beam passing thorough the cavity. The cavity geometry is modeled using an immersed boundary method, and an auxiliary flat plate simulation is performed to replicate the effects of the wind-tunnel boundary layer on the computed optical path difference. Pressure spectra extracted on the cavity walls agree with empirical predictions based on Rossiter's formula. Proper orthogonal modes of the wavefront aberrations in a beam originating from the cavity center agree well with experimental data despite uncertainty about in flow turbulence levels and boundary layer thicknesses over the wind tunnel window. Dynamic mode decomposition of a planar wavefront spanning the cavity reveals that wavefront distortions are driven by shear layer oscillations at the Rossiter frequencies; these disturbances create eddy shocklets that propagate into the free-stream, creating additional optical wavefront distortion.

  8. PERAMALAN DERET WAKTU MENGGUNAKAN MODEL FUNGSI BASIS RADIAL (RBF DAN AUTO REGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DT Wiyanti

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Salah satu metode peramalan yang paling dikembangkan saat ini adalah time series, yakni menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan data masa lampau yang dijadikan acuan untuk peramalan masa depan. Berbagai penelitian telah mengusulkan metode-metode untuk menyelesaikan time series, di antaranya statistik, jaringan syaraf, wavelet, dan sistem fuzzy. Metode-metode tersebut memiliki kekurangan dan keunggulan yang berbeda. Namun permasalahan yang ada dalam dunia nyata merupakan masalah yang kompleks. Satu metode saja mungkin tidak mampu mengatasi masalah tersebut dengan baik. Dalam artikel ini dibahas penggabungan dua buah metode yaitu Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA dan Radial Basis Function (RBF. Alasan penggabungan kedua metode ini adalah karena adanya asumsi bahwa metode tunggal tidak dapat secara total mengidentifikasi semua karakteristik time series. Pada artikel ini dibahas peramalan terhadap data Indeks Harga Perdagangan Besar (IHPB dan data inflasi komoditi Indonesia; kedua data berada pada rentang tahun 2006 hingga beberapa bulan di tahun 2012. Kedua data tersebut masing-masing memiliki enam variabel. Hasil peramalan metode ARIMA-RBF dibandingkan dengan metode ARIMA dan metode RBF secara individual. Hasil analisa menunjukkan bahwa dengan metode penggabungan ARIMA dan RBF, model yang diberikan memiliki hasil yang lebih akurat dibandingkan dengan penggunaan salah satu metode saja. Hal ini terlihat dalam visual plot, MAPE, dan RMSE dari semua variabel pada dua data uji coba. The accuracy of time series forecasting is the subject of many decision-making processes. Time series use a quantitative approach to employ data from the past to make forecast for the future. Many researches have proposed several methods to solve time series, such as using statistics, neural networks, wavelets, and fuzzy systems. These methods have different advantages and disadvantages. But often the problem in the real world is just too complex that a

  9. Assessing models for parameters of the Ångström-Prescott formula in China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Xiaoying; Xu, Yinlong; Zhong, Xiuli

    2012-01-01

    against the calibrated ones. Models 1, 6 and 7 showed an advantage in keeping the physical meaning of their modeled parameters due to the small magnitude of and the use of the relation of (a + b) versus other variables as a constraint, respectively. All models tended to perform best in zone II and poorest...... () (models 1–2), altitude (model 7), altitude and (model 3), altitude, and latitude (model 4), altitude and latitude (model 5) and annual average air temperature (model 6). It was found that model 7 performed best, followed by models 6, 1, 3, 2 and 4. The better performance of models 7 and 6 and the fact....... This also suggests that applicability of a Rs model is not proportional to its complexity. The common feature of the better performing models suggests that accurate modeling of parameter a is more important than that of b. Therefore, priority should be given to parameter models having higher accuracy for a...

  10. Modelling of an intermediate pressure microwave oxygen discharge reactor: from stationary two-dimensional to time-dependent global (volume-averaged) plasma models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemaneci, Efe; Graef, Wouter; Rahimi, Sara; Van Dijk, Jan; Kroesen, Gerrit; Carbone, Emile; Jimenez-Diaz, Manuel

    2015-01-01

    A microwave-induced oxygen plasma is simulated using both stationary and time-resolved modelling strategies. The stationary model is spatially resolved and it is self-consistently coupled to the microwaves (Jimenez-Diaz et al 2012 J. Phys. D: Appl. Phys. 45 335204), whereas the time-resolved description is based on a global (volume-averaged) model (Kemaneci et al 2014 Plasma Sources Sci. Technol. 23 045002). We observe agreement of the global model data with several published measurements of microwave-induced oxygen plasmas in both continuous and modulated power inputs. Properties of the microwave plasma reactor are investigated and corresponding simulation data based on two distinct models shows agreement on the common parameters. The role of the square wave modulated power input is also investigated within the time-resolved description. (paper)

  11. State Averages

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — A list of a variety of averages for each state or territory as well as the national average, including each quality measure, staffing, fine amount and number of...

  12. Bias-Corrected Estimation of Noncentrality Parameters of Covariance Structure Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raykov, Tenko

    2005-01-01

    A bias-corrected estimator of noncentrality parameters of covariance structure models is discussed. The approach represents an application of the bootstrap methodology for purposes of bias correction, and utilizes the relation between average of resample conventional noncentrality parameter estimates and their sample counterpart. The…

  13. An axially averaged-radial transport model of tokamak edge plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prinja, A.K.; Conn, R.W.

    1984-01-01

    A two-zone axially averaged-radial transport model for edge plasmas is described that incorporates parallel electron and ion conduction, localized recycling, parallel electron pressure gradient effects and sheath losses. Results for high recycling show that the radial electron temperature profile is determined by parallel electron conduction over short radial distances (proportional 3 cm). At larger radius where Tsub(e) has fallen appreciably, convective transport becomes equally important. The downstream density and ion temperature profiles are very flat over the region where electron conduction dominates. This is seen to result from a sharply decaying velocity profile that follows the radial electron temperature. A one-dimensional analytical recycling model shows that at high neutral pumping rates, the plasma density at the plate, nsub(ia), scales linearly with the unperturbed background density, nsub(io). When ionization dominates nsub(ia)/nsub(io) proportional exp(nsub(io)) while in the intermediate regime nsub(ia)/nsub(io) proportional exp(proportional nsub(io)). Such behavior is qualitatively in accord with experimental observations. (orig.)

  14. Two-Dimensional Depth-Averaged Beach Evolution Modeling: Case Study of the Kizilirmak River Mouth, Turkey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baykal, Cüneyt; Ergin, Ayşen; Güler, Işikhan

    2014-01-01

    investigated by satellite images, physical model tests, and one-dimensional numerical models. The current study uses a two-dimensional depth-averaged numerical beach evolution model, developed based on existing methodologies. This model is mainly composed of four main submodels: a phase-averaged spectral wave......This study presents an application of a two-dimensional beach evolution model to a shoreline change problem at the Kizilirmak River mouth, which has been facing severe coastal erosion problems for more than 20 years. The shoreline changes at the Kizilirmak River mouth have been thus far...... transformation model, a two-dimensional depth-averaged numerical waveinduced circulation model, a sediment transport model, and a bottom evolution model. To validate and verify the numerical model, it is applied to several cases of laboratory experiments. Later, the model is applied to a shoreline change problem...

  15. Reduced fractal model for quantitative analysis of averaged micromotions in mesoscale: Characterization of blow-like signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nigmatullin, Raoul R.; Toboev, Vyacheslav A.; Lino, Paolo; Maione, Guido

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: •A new approach describes fractal-branched systems with long-range fluctuations. •A reduced fractal model is proposed. •The approach is used to characterize blow-like signals. •The approach is tested on data from different fields. -- Abstract: It has been shown that many micromotions in the mesoscale region are averaged in accordance with their self-similar (geometrical/dynamical) structure. This distinctive feature helps to reduce a wide set of different micromotions describing relaxation/exchange processes to an averaged collective motion, expressed mathematically in a rather general form. This reduction opens new perspectives in description of different blow-like signals (BLS) in many complex systems. The main characteristic of these signals is a finite duration also when the generalized reduced function is used for their quantitative fitting. As an example, we describe quantitatively available signals that are generated by bronchial asthmatic people, songs by queen bees, and car engine valves operating in the idling regime. We develop a special treatment procedure based on the eigen-coordinates (ECs) method that allows to justify the generalized reduced fractal model (RFM) for description of BLS that can propagate in different complex systems. The obtained describing function is based on the self-similar properties of the different considered micromotions. This kind of cooperative model is proposed here for the first time. In spite of the fact that the nature of the dynamic processes that take place in fractal structure on a mesoscale level is not well understood, the parameters of the RFM fitting function can be used for construction of calibration curves, affected by various external/random factors. Then, the calculated set of the fitting parameters of these calibration curves can characterize BLS of different complex systems affected by those factors. Though the method to construct and analyze the calibration curves goes beyond the scope

  16. Application of regression model on stream water quality parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suleman, M.; Maqbool, F.; Malik, A.H.; Bhatti, Z.A.

    2012-01-01

    Statistical analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of solid waste leachate from the open solid waste dumping site of Salhad on the stream water quality. Five sites were selected along the stream. Two sites were selected prior to mixing of leachate with the surface water. One was of leachate and other two sites were affected with leachate. Samples were analyzed for pH, water temperature, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), Biological oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), dissolved oxygen (DO) and total bacterial load (TBL). In this study correlation coefficient r among different water quality parameters of various sites were calculated by using Pearson model and then average of each correlation between two parameters were also calculated, which shows TDS and EC and pH and BOD have significantly increasing r value, while temperature and TDS, temp and EC, DO and BL, DO and COD have decreasing r value. Single factor ANOVA at 5% level of significance was used which shows EC, TDS, TCL and COD were significantly differ among various sites. By the application of these two statistical approaches TDS and EC shows strongly positive correlation because the ions from the dissolved solids in water influence the ability of that water to conduct an electrical current. These two parameters significantly vary among 5 sites which are further confirmed by using linear regression. (author)

  17. The value of model averaging and dynamical climate model predictions for improving statistical seasonal streamflow forecasts over Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Prafulla; Wang, Q. J.; Robertson, David E.

    2013-10-01

    Seasonal streamflow forecasts are valuable for planning and allocation of water resources. In Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology employs a statistical method to forecast seasonal streamflows. The method uses predictors that are related to catchment wetness at the start of a forecast period and to climate during the forecast period. For the latter, a predictor is selected among a number of lagged climate indices as candidates to give the "best" model in terms of model performance in cross validation. This study investigates two strategies for further improvement in seasonal streamflow forecasts. The first is to combine, through Bayesian model averaging, multiple candidate models with different lagged climate indices as predictors, to take advantage of different predictive strengths of the multiple models. The second strategy is to introduce additional candidate models, using rainfall and sea surface temperature predictions from a global climate model as predictors. This is to take advantage of the direct simulations of various dynamic processes. The results show that combining forecasts from multiple statistical models generally yields more skillful forecasts than using only the best model and appears to moderate the worst forecast errors. The use of rainfall predictions from the dynamical climate model marginally improves the streamflow forecasts when viewed over all the study catchments and seasons, but the use of sea surface temperature predictions provide little additional benefit.

  18. Models for estimating photosynthesis parameters from in situ production profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovač, Žarko; Platt, Trevor; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Antunović, Suzana

    2017-12-01

    The rate of carbon assimilation in phytoplankton primary production models is mathematically prescribed with photosynthesis irradiance functions, which convert a light flux (energy) into a material flux (carbon). Information on this rate is contained in photosynthesis parameters: the initial slope and the assimilation number. The exactness of parameter values is crucial for precise calculation of primary production. Here we use a model of the daily production profile based on a suite of photosynthesis irradiance functions and extract photosynthesis parameters from in situ measured daily production profiles at the Hawaii Ocean Time-series station Aloha. For each function we recover parameter values, establish parameter distributions and quantify model skill. We observe that the choice of the photosynthesis irradiance function to estimate the photosynthesis parameters affects the magnitudes of parameter values as recovered from in situ profiles. We also tackle the problem of parameter exchange amongst the models and the effect it has on model performance. All models displayed little or no bias prior to parameter exchange, but significant bias following parameter exchange. The best model performance resulted from using optimal parameter values. Model formulation was extended further by accounting for spectral effects and deriving a spectral analytical solution for the daily production profile. The daily production profile was also formulated with time dependent growing biomass governed by a growth equation. The work on parameter recovery was further extended by exploring how to extract photosynthesis parameters from information on watercolumn production. It was demonstrated how to estimate parameter values based on a linearization of the full analytical solution for normalized watercolumn production and from the solution itself, without linearization. The paper complements previous works on photosynthesis irradiance models by analysing the skill and consistency of

  19. Performance of Optimally Merged Multisatellite Precipitation Products Using the Dynamic Bayesian Model Averaging Scheme Over the Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Yingzhao; Hong, Yang; Chen, Yang; Yang, Yuan; Tang, Guoqiang; Yao, Yunjun; Long, Di; Li, Changmin; Han, Zhongying; Liu, Ronghua

    2018-01-01

    Accurate estimation of precipitation from satellites at high spatiotemporal scales over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) remains a challenge. In this study, we proposed a general framework for blending multiple satellite precipitation data using the dynamic Bayesian model averaging (BMA) algorithm. The blended experiment was performed at a daily 0.25° grid scale for 2007-2012 among Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42RT and 3B42V7, Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique (CMORPH), and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR). First, the BMA weights were optimized using the expectation-maximization (EM) method for each member on each day at 200 calibrated sites and then interpolated to the entire plateau using the ordinary kriging (OK) approach. Thus, the merging data were produced by weighted sums of the individuals over the plateau. The dynamic BMA approach showed better performance with a smaller root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 6.77 mm/day, higher correlation coefficient of 0.592, and closer Euclid value of 0.833, compared to the individuals at 15 validated sites. Moreover, BMA has proven to be more robust in terms of seasonality, topography, and other parameters than traditional ensemble methods including simple model averaging (SMA) and one-outlier removed (OOR). Error analysis between BMA and the state-of-the-art IMERG in the summer of 2014 further proved that the performance of BMA was superior with respect to multisatellite precipitation data merging. This study demonstrates that BMA provides a new solution for blending multiple satellite data in regions with limited gauges.

  20. Benefits of dominance over additive models for the estimation of average effects in the presence of dominance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duenk, Pascal; Calus, Mario P.L.; Wientjes, Yvonne C.J.; Bijma, Piter

    2017-01-01

    In quantitative genetics, the average effect at a single locus can be estimated by an additive (A) model, or an additive plus dominance (AD) model. In the presence of dominance, the AD-model is expected to be more accurate, because the A-model falsely assumes that residuals are independent and

  1. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vrugt, Jasper A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Wohling, Thomas [NON LANL

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  2. Optimizing incomplete sample designs for item response model parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.

    Several models for optimizing incomplete sample designs with respect to information on the item parameters are presented. The following cases are considered: (1) known ability parameters; (2) unknown ability parameters; (3) item sets with multiple ability scales; and (4) response models with

  3. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Chemical Kinetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian

    2011-01-01

    We discuss the need for devoting time in differential equations courses to modelling and the completion of the modelling process with efforts to estimate the parameters in the models using data. We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of chemical reactions of order n, where n = 0, 1, 2, and apply more general…

  4. Performance of Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes Models in Predicting Separated Flows: Study of the Hump Flow Model Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cappelli, Daniele; Mansour, Nagi N.

    2012-01-01

    Separation can be seen in most aerodynamic flows, but accurate prediction of separated flows is still a challenging problem for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tools. The behavior of several Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models in predicting the separated ow over a wall-mounted hump is studied. The strengths and weaknesses of the most popular RANS models (Spalart-Allmaras, k-epsilon, k-omega, k-omega-SST) are evaluated using the open source software OpenFOAM. The hump ow modeled in this work has been documented in the 2004 CFD Validation Workshop on Synthetic Jets and Turbulent Separation Control. Only the baseline case is treated; the slot flow control cases are not considered in this paper. Particular attention is given to predicting the size of the recirculation bubble, the position of the reattachment point, and the velocity profiles downstream of the hump.

  5. Implementation, Comparison and Application of an Average Simulation Model of a Wind Turbine Driven Doubly Fed Induction Generator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lidula N. Widanagama Arachchige

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Wind turbine driven doubly-fed induction generators (DFIGs are widely used in the wind power industry. With the increasing penetration of wind farms, analysis of their effect on power systems has become a critical requirement. This paper presents the modeling of wind turbine driven DFIGs using the conventional vector controls in a detailed model of a DFIG that represents power electronics (PE converters with device level models and proposes an average model eliminating the PE converters. The PSCAD/EMTDC™ (4.6 electromagnetic transient simulation software is used to develop the detailed and the proposing average model of a DFIG. The comparison of the two models reveals that the designed average DFIG model is adequate for simulating and analyzing most of the transient conditions.

  6. Study on Parameters Modeling of Wind Turbines Using SCADA Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonglong YAN

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Taking the advantage of the current massive monitoring data from Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA system of wind farm, it is of important significance for anomaly detection, early warning and fault diagnosis to build the data model of state parameters of wind turbines (WTs. The operational conditions and the relationships between the state parameters of wind turbines are complex. It is difficult to establish the model of state parameter accurately, and the modeling method of state parameters of wind turbines considering parameter selection is proposed. Firstly, by analyzing the characteristic of SCADA data, a reasonable range of data and monitoring parameters are chosen. Secondly, neural network algorithm is adapted, and the selection method of input parameters in the model is presented. Generator bearing temperature and cooling air temperature are regarded as target parameters, and the two models are built and input parameters of the models are selected, respectively. Finally, the parameter selection method in this paper and the method using genetic algorithm-partial least square (GA-PLS are analyzed comparatively, and the results show that the proposed methods are correct and effective. Furthermore, the modeling of two parameters illustrate that the method in this paper can applied to other state parameters of wind turbines.

  7. Sensitivity of subject-specific models to Hill muscle-tendon model parameters in simulations of gait.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carbone, V; van der Krogt, M M; Koopman, H F J M; Verdonschot, N

    2016-06-14

    Subject-specific musculoskeletal (MS) models of the lower extremity are essential for applications such as predicting the effects of orthopedic surgery. We performed an extensive sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of potential errors in Hill muscle-tendon (MT) model parameters for each of the 56 MT parts contained in a state-of-the-art MS model. We used two metrics, namely a Local Sensitivity Index (LSI) and an Overall Sensitivity Index (OSI), to distinguish the effect of the perturbation on the predicted force produced by the perturbed MT parts and by all the remaining MT parts, respectively, during a simulated gait cycle. Results indicated that sensitivity of the model depended on the specific role of each MT part during gait, and not merely on its size and length. Tendon slack length was the most sensitive parameter, followed by maximal isometric muscle force and optimal muscle fiber length, while nominal pennation angle showed very low sensitivity. The highest sensitivity values were found for the MT parts that act as prime movers of gait (Soleus: average OSI=5.27%, Rectus Femoris: average OSI=4.47%, Gastrocnemius: average OSI=3.77%, Vastus Lateralis: average OSI=1.36%, Biceps Femoris Caput Longum: average OSI=1.06%) and hip stabilizers (Gluteus Medius: average OSI=3.10%, Obturator Internus: average OSI=1.96%, Gluteus Minimus: average OSI=1.40%, Piriformis: average OSI=0.98%), followed by the Peroneal muscles (average OSI=2.20%) and Tibialis Anterior (average OSI=1.78%) some of which were not included in previous sensitivity studies. Finally, the proposed priority list provides quantitative information to indicate which MT parts and which MT parameters should be estimated most accurately to create detailed and reliable subject-specific MS models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Elucidating fluctuating diffusivity in center-of-mass motion of polymer models with time-averaged mean-square-displacement tensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyaguchi, Tomoshige

    2017-10-01

    There have been increasing reports that the diffusion coefficient of macromolecules depends on time and fluctuates randomly. Here a method is developed to elucidate this fluctuating diffusivity from trajectory data. Time-averaged mean-square displacement (MSD), a common tool in single-particle-tracking (SPT) experiments, is generalized to a second-order tensor with which both magnitude and orientation fluctuations of the diffusivity can be clearly detected. This method is used to analyze the center-of-mass motion of four fundamental polymer models: the Rouse model, the Zimm model, a reptation model, and a rigid rodlike polymer. It is found that these models exhibit distinctly different types of magnitude and orientation fluctuations of diffusivity. This is an advantage of the present method over previous ones, such as the ergodicity-breaking parameter and a non-Gaussian parameter, because with either of these parameters it is difficult to distinguish the dynamics of the four polymer models. Also, the present method of a time-averaged MSD tensor could be used to analyze trajectory data obtained in SPT experiments.

  9. Neutron spectrum perturbations due to scattering materials and their effect on the average neutron energy, the spectral index, and the hardness parameter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, H.L.; Meason, J.L.; Wolf, M.; Harvey, J.T.

    1976-01-01

    Measurements have been performed on the perturbing effect of a number of scattering materials by the 'free-field' neutron leakage spectrum from a Godiva Type Critical Assembly (White Sands Missile Range Fast Burst Reactor). The results of these measurements are interpreted in relation to some of the general parameters characterizing a neutron environment, namely, the average neutron energy >10 KeV, the spectral index and the hardness parameter. Three neutron spectrum measurements have been performed, each under different experimental configurations of scattering materials. Results from these measurements show the following with relation to the spectral index: (1) The neutron environment on the core surface and at 12-inches from the core surface (free-field) yield a spectral index of 6.8, (2) The neutron environment behind a 4.75-inch Plexiglas plate yield 4.6 for the spectral index and (3) The neutron environment behind a 2-inch aluminum plate yield 6.7 for the spectral index. It is concluded that the core surface and the 12-inch from core surface neutron environment are identical with the 'free-field' neutron environment at 20-inches when considering only those neutrons with energy >10 KeV. On the other hand, it appears that the 4.75 inches of Plexiglas severely perturbs the 'free-field' neutron environment, i.e., a much harder neutron spectrum >10 KeV. In the situation where 2-inches of aluminum is used as the perturbing medium, essentially no change in the neutron spectrum >10 KeV is noted

  10. Model of averaged turbulent flow around cylindrical column for simulation of the saltation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kharlamova, Irina; Kharlamov, Alexander; Vlasák, Pavel

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 2 (2014), s. 103-110 ISSN 1802-1484 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA103/09/1718 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20600510 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : sediment transport * flow around cylinder * logarithmic profile * dipole line * averaged turbulent flow Subject RIV: BK - Fluid Dynamics

  11. Parameter Optimisation for the Behaviour of Elastic Models over Time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mosegaard, Jesper

    2004-01-01

    Optimisation of parameters for elastic models is essential for comparison or finding equivalent behaviour of elastic models when parameters cannot simply be transferred or converted. This is the case with a large range of commonly used elastic models. In this paper we present a general method tha...

  12. An automatic and effective parameter optimization method for model tuning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Zhang

    2015-11-01

    simulation results show that the optimum combination of these parameters determined using this method is able to improve the model's overall performance by 9 %. The proposed methodology and software framework can be easily applied to other GCMs to speed up the model development process, especially regarding unavoidable comprehensive parameter tuning during the model development stage.

  13. Identifying the connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Guse

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In hydrological models, parameters are used to represent the time-invariant characteristics of catchments and to capture different aspects of hydrological response. Hence, model parameters need to be identified based on their role in controlling the hydrological behaviour. For the identification of meaningful parameter values, multiple and complementary performance criteria are used that compare modelled and measured discharge time series. The reliability of the identification of hydrologically meaningful model parameter values depends on how distinctly a model parameter can be assigned to one of the performance criteria. To investigate this, we introduce the new concept of connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria. The connective strength assesses the intensity in the interrelationship between model parameters and performance criteria in a bijective way. In our analysis of connective strength, model simulations are carried out based on a latin hypercube sampling. Ten performance criteria including Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE and its three components (alpha, beta and r as well as RSR (the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation for different segments of the flow duration curve (FDC are calculated. With a joint analysis of two regression tree (RT approaches, we derive how a model parameter is connected to different performance criteria. At first, RTs are constructed using each performance criterion as the target variable to detect the most relevant model parameters for each performance criterion. Secondly, RTs are constructed using each parameter as the target variable to detect which performance criteria are impacted by changes in the values of one distinct model parameter. Based on this, appropriate performance criteria are identified for each model parameter. In this study, a high bijective connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria

  14. Resuspension parameters for TRAC dispersion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langer, G.

    1987-01-01

    Resuspension factors for the wind erosion of soil contaminated with plutonium are necessary to run the Rocky Flats Plant Terrain Responsive Atmospheric Code (TRAC). The model predicts the dispersion and resulting population dose due to accidental plutonium releases

  15. Summary of the DREAM8 Parameter Estimation Challenge: Toward Parameter Identification for Whole-Cell Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan R Karr

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Whole-cell models that explicitly represent all cellular components at the molecular level have the potential to predict phenotype from genotype. However, even for simple bacteria, whole-cell models will contain thousands of parameters, many of which are poorly characterized or unknown. New algorithms are needed to estimate these parameters and enable researchers to build increasingly comprehensive models. We organized the Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM 8 Whole-Cell Parameter Estimation Challenge to develop new parameter estimation algorithms for whole-cell models. We asked participants to identify a subset of parameters of a whole-cell model given the model's structure and in silico "experimental" data. Here we describe the challenge, the best performing methods, and new insights into the identifiability of whole-cell models. We also describe several valuable lessons we learned toward improving future challenges. Going forward, we believe that collaborative efforts supported by inexpensive cloud computing have the potential to solve whole-cell model parameter estimation.

  16. Average nuclear surface properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groote, H. von.

    1979-01-01

    The definition of the nuclear surface energy is discussed for semi-infinite matter. This definition is extended also for the case that there is a neutron gas instead of vacuum on the one side of the plane surface. The calculations were performed with the Thomas-Fermi Model of Syler and Blanchard. The parameters of the interaction of this model were determined by a least squares fit to experimental masses. The quality of this fit is discussed with respect to nuclear masses and density distributions. The average surface properties were calculated for different particle asymmetry of the nucleon-matter ranging from symmetry beyond the neutron-drip line until the system no longer can maintain the surface boundary and becomes homogeneous. The results of the calculations are incorporated in the nuclear Droplet Model which then was fitted to experimental masses. (orig.)

  17. How robust are the estimated effects of air pollution on health? Accounting for model uncertainty using Bayesian model averaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pannullo, Francesca; Lee, Duncan; Waclawski, Eugene; Leyland, Alastair H

    2016-08-01

    The long-term impact of air pollution on human health can be estimated from small-area ecological studies in which the health outcome is regressed against air pollution concentrations and other covariates, such as socio-economic deprivation. Socio-economic deprivation is multi-factorial and difficult to measure, and includes aspects of income, education, and housing as well as others. However, these variables are potentially highly correlated, meaning one can either create an overall deprivation index, or use the individual characteristics, which can result in a variety of pollution-health effects. Other aspects of model choice may affect the pollution-health estimate, such as the estimation of pollution, and spatial autocorrelation model. Therefore, we propose a Bayesian model averaging approach to combine the results from multiple statistical models to produce a more robust representation of the overall pollution-health effect. We investigate the relationship between nitrogen dioxide concentrations and cardio-respiratory mortality in West Central Scotland between 2006 and 2012. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  18. Modelling lidar volume-averaging and its significance to wind turbine wake measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer Forsting, A. R.; Troldborg, N.; Borraccino, A.

    2017-05-01

    Lidar velocity measurements need to be interpreted differently than conventional in-situ readings. A commonly ignored factor is “volume-averaging”, which refers to lidars not sampling in a single, distinct point but along its entire beam length. However, especially in regions with large velocity gradients, like the rotor wake, can it be detrimental. Hence, an efficient algorithm mimicking lidar flow sampling is presented, which considers both pulsed and continous-wave lidar weighting functions. The flow-field around a 2.3 MW turbine is simulated using Detached Eddy Simulation in combination with an actuator line to test the algorithm and investigate the potential impact of volume-averaging. Even with very few points discretising the lidar beam is volume-averaging captured accurately. The difference in a lidar compared to a point measurement is greatest at the wake edges and increases from 30% one rotor diameter (D) downstream of the rotor to 60% at 3D.

  19. Modeling Influenza Transmission Using Environmental Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soebiyanto, Radina P.; Kiang, Richard K.

    2010-01-01

    Influenza is an acute viral respiratory disease that has significant mortality, morbidity and economic burden worldwide. It infects approximately 5-15% of the world population, and causes 250,000 500,000 deaths each year. The role of environments on influenza is often drawn upon the latitude variability of influenza seasonality pattern. In regions with temperate climate, influenza epidemics exhibit clear seasonal pattern that peak during winter months, but it is not as evident in the tropics. Toward this end, we developed mathematical model and forecasting capabilities for influenza in regions characterized by warm climate Hong Kong (China) and Maricopa County (Arizona, USA). The best model for Hong Kong uses Land Surface Temperature (LST), precipitation and relative humidity as its covariates. Whereas for Maricopa County, we found that weekly influenza cases can be best modelled using mean air temperature as its covariates. Our forecasts can further guides public health organizations in targeting influenza prevention and control measures such as vaccination.

  20. Edge Modeling by Two Blur Parameters in Varying Contrasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Suyoung

    2018-06-01

    This paper presents a method of modeling edge profiles with two blur parameters, and estimating and predicting those edge parameters with varying brightness combinations and camera-to-object distances (COD). First, the validity of the edge model is proven mathematically. Then, it is proven experimentally with edges from a set of images captured for specifically designed target sheets and with edges from natural images. Estimation of the two blur parameters for each observed edge profile is performed with a brute-force method to find parameters that produce global minimum errors. Then, using the estimated blur parameters, actual blur parameters of edges with arbitrary brightness combinations are predicted using a surface interpolation method (i.e., kriging). The predicted surfaces show that the two blur parameters of the proposed edge model depend on both dark-side edge brightness and light-side edge brightness following a certain global trend. This is similar across varying CODs. The proposed edge model is compared with a one-blur parameter edge model using experiments of the root mean squared error for fitting the edge models to each observed edge profile. The comparison results suggest that the proposed edge model has superiority over the one-blur parameter edge model in most cases where edges have varying brightness combinations.

  1. Arrange and average algorithm for the retrieval of aerosol parameters from multiwavelength high-spectral-resolution lidar/Raman lidar data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chemyakin, Eduard; Müller, Detlef; Burton, Sharon; Kolgotin, Alexei; Hostetler, Chris; Ferrare, Richard

    2014-11-01

    We present the results of a feasibility study in which a simple, automated, and unsupervised algorithm, which we call the arrange and average algorithm, is used to infer microphysical parameters (complex refractive index, effective radius, total number, surface area, and volume concentrations) of atmospheric aerosol particles. The algorithm uses backscatter coefficients at 355, 532, and 1064 nm and extinction coefficients at 355 and 532 nm as input information. Testing of the algorithm is based on synthetic optical data that are computed from prescribed monomodal particle size distributions and complex refractive indices that describe spherical, primarily fine mode pollution particles. We tested the performance of the algorithm for the "3 backscatter (β)+2 extinction (α)" configuration of a multiwavelength aerosol high-spectral-resolution lidar (HSRL) or Raman lidar. We investigated the degree to which the microphysical results retrieved by this algorithm depends on the number of input backscatter and extinction coefficients. For example, we tested "3β+1α," "2β+1α," and "3β" lidar configurations. This arrange and average algorithm can be used in two ways. First, it can be applied for quick data processing of experimental data acquired with lidar. Fast automated retrievals of microphysical particle properties are needed in view of the enormous amount of data that can be acquired by the NASA Langley Research Center's airborne "3β+2α" High-Spectral-Resolution Lidar (HSRL-2). It would prove useful for the growing number of ground-based multiwavelength lidar networks, and it would provide an option for analyzing the vast amount of optical data acquired with a future spaceborne multiwavelength lidar. The second potential application is to improve the microphysical particle characterization with our existing inversion algorithm that uses Tikhonov's inversion with regularization. This advanced algorithm has recently undergone development to allow automated and

  2. Average pollutant concentration in soil profile simulated with Convective-Dispersive Equation. Model and Manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    Different parts of soil solution move with different velocities, and therefore chemicals are leached gradually from soil with infiltrating water. Solute dispersivity is the soil parameter characterizing this phenomenon. To characterize the dispersivity of soil profile at field scale, it is desirable...

  3. Dynamics in the Parameter Space of a Neuron Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulo, C. Rech

    2012-06-01

    Some two-dimensional parameter-space diagrams are numerically obtained by considering the largest Lyapunov exponent for a four-dimensional thirteen-parameter Hindmarsh—Rose neuron model. Several different parameter planes are considered, and it is shown that depending on the combination of parameters, a typical scenario can be preserved: for some choice of two parameters, the parameter plane presents a comb-shaped chaotic region embedded in a large periodic region. It is also shown that there exist regions close to these comb-shaped chaotic regions, separated by the comb teeth, organizing themselves in period-adding bifurcation cascades.

  4. Advances in Modelling, System Identification and Parameter ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Authors show, using numerical simulation for two system functions, the improvement in percentage normalized ... of nonlinear systems. The approach is to use multiple linearizing models fitted along the operating trajectories. ... over emphasized in the light of present day high level of research activity in the field of aerospace ...

  5. Bayesian Averaging over Many Dynamic Model Structures with Evidence on the Great Ratios and Liquidity Trap Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.W. Strachan (Rodney); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractA Bayesian model averaging procedure is presented that makes use of a finite mixture of many model structures within the class of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes. It is applied to two empirical issues. First, stability of the Great Ratios in U.S. macro-economic time series is

  6. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch

    2003-01-01

    This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN

  7. Wind-Farm Forecasting Using the HARMONIE Weather Forecast Model and Bayes Model Averaging for Bias Removal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Enda; McKinstry, Alastair; Ralph, Adam

    2015-04-01

    Building on previous work presented at EGU 2013 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876610213016068 ), more results are available now from a different wind-farm in complex terrain in southwest Ireland. The basic approach is to interpolate wind-speed forecasts from an operational weather forecast model (i.e., HARMONIE in the case of Ireland) to the precise location of each wind-turbine, and then use Bayes Model Averaging (BMA; with statistical information collected from a prior training-period of e.g., 25 days) to remove systematic biases. Bias-corrected wind-speed forecasts (and associated power-generation forecasts) are then provided twice daily (at 5am and 5pm) out to 30 hours, with each forecast validation fed back to BMA for future learning. 30-hr forecasts from the operational Met Éireann HARMONIE model at 2.5km resolution have been validated against turbine SCADA observations since Jan. 2014. An extra high-resolution (0.5km grid-spacing) HARMONIE configuration has been run since Nov. 2014 as an extra member of the forecast "ensemble". A new version of HARMONIE with extra filters designed to stabilize high-resolution configurations has been run since Jan. 2015. Measures of forecast skill and forecast errors will be provided, and the contributions made by the various physical and computational enhancements to HARMONIE will be quantified.

  8. Benefits of Dominance over Additive Models for the Estimation of Average Effects in the Presence of Dominance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pascal Duenk

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In quantitative genetics, the average effect at a single locus can be estimated by an additive (A model, or an additive plus dominance (AD model. In the presence of dominance, the AD-model is expected to be more accurate, because the A-model falsely assumes that residuals are independent and identically distributed. Our objective was to investigate the accuracy of an estimated average effect (α^ in the presence of dominance, using either a single locus A-model or AD-model. Estimation was based on a finite sample from a large population in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE, and the root mean squared error of α^ was calculated for several broad-sense heritabilities, sample sizes, and sizes of the dominance effect. Results show that with the A-model, both sampling deviations of genotype frequencies from HWE frequencies and sampling deviations of allele frequencies contributed to the error. With the AD-model, only sampling deviations of allele frequencies contributed to the error, provided that all three genotype classes were sampled. In the presence of dominance, the root mean squared error of α^ with the AD-model was always smaller than with the A-model, even when the heritability was less than one. Remarkably, in the absence of dominance, there was no disadvantage of fitting dominance. In conclusion, the AD-model yields more accurate estimates of average effects from a finite sample, because it is more robust against sampling deviations from HWE frequencies than the A-model. Genetic models that include dominance, therefore, yield higher accuracies of estimated average effects than purely additive models when dominance is present.

  9. A simulation of water pollution model parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibler, J. F.

    1976-01-01

    A parameter estimation procedure for a water pollution transport model is elaborated. A two-dimensional instantaneous-release shear-diffusion model serves as representative of a simple transport process. Pollution concentration levels are arrived at via modeling of a remote-sensing system. The remote-sensed data are simulated by adding Gaussian noise to the concentration level values generated via the transport model. Model parameters are estimated from the simulated data using a least-squares batch processor. Resolution, sensor array size, and number and location of sensor readings can be found from the accuracies of the parameter estimates.

  10. Lumped parameter models for the interpretation of environmental tracer data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maloszewski, P.; Zuber, A.

    1996-01-01

    Principles of the lumped-parameter approach to the interpretation of environmental tracer data are given. The following models are considered: the piston flow model (PFM), exponential flow model (EM), linear model (LM), combined piston flow and exponential flow model (EPM), combined linear flow and piston flow model (LPM), and dispersion model (DM). The applicability of these models for the interpretation of different tracer data is discussed for a steady state flow approximation. Case studies are given to exemplify the applicability of the lumped-parameter approach. Description of a user-friendly computer program is given. (author). 68 refs, 25 figs, 4 tabs

  11. Lumped parameter models for the interpretation of environmental tracer data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maloszewski, P [GSF-Inst. for Hydrology, Oberschleissheim (Germany); Zuber, A [Institute of Nuclear Physics, Cracow (Poland)

    1996-10-01

    Principles of the lumped-parameter approach to the interpretation of environmental tracer data are given. The following models are considered: the piston flow model (PFM), exponential flow model (EM), linear model (LM), combined piston flow and exponential flow model (EPM), combined linear flow and piston flow model (LPM), and dispersion model (DM). The applicability of these models for the interpretation of different tracer data is discussed for a steady state flow approximation. Case studies are given to exemplify the applicability of the lumped-parameter approach. Description of a user-friendly computer program is given. (author). 68 refs, 25 figs, 4 tabs.

  12. Parameters modelling of amaranth grain processing technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derkanosova, N. M.; Shelamova, S. A.; Ponomareva, I. N.; Shurshikova, G. V.; Vasilenko, O. A.

    2018-03-01

    The article presents a technique that allows calculating the structure of a multicomponent bakery mixture for the production of enriched products, taking into account the instability of nutrient content, and ensuring the fulfilment of technological requirements and, at the same time considering consumer preferences. The results of modelling and analysis of optimal solutions are given by the example of calculating the structure of a three-component mixture of wheat and rye flour with an enriching component, that is, whole-hulled amaranth flour applied to the technology of bread from a mixture of rye and wheat flour on a liquid leaven.

  13. WATGIS: A GIS-Based Lumped Parameter Water Quality Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn P. Fernandez; George M. Chescheir; R. Wayne Skaggs; Devendra M. Amatya

    2002-01-01

    A Geographic Information System (GIS)­based, lumped parameter water quality model was developed to estimate the spatial and temporal nitrogen­loading patterns for lower coastal plain watersheds in eastern North Carolina. The model uses a spatially distributed delivery ratio (DR) parameter to account for nitrogen retention or loss along a drainage network. Delivery...

  14. A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models is developed for conducting tests simultaneously on all the parameters of multiple linear regression models. The test is robust relative to the assumptions of homogeneity of variances and absence of serial correlation of the classical F-test. Under certain null and ...

  15. The influence of model parameters on catchment-response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shah, S.M.S.; Gabriel, H.F.; Khan, A.A.

    2002-01-01

    This paper deals with the study of influence of influence of conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameters on catchment response (runoff). A conceptual modified watershed yield model is employed to study the effects of model-parameters on catchment-response, i.e. runoff. The model is calibrated, using manual parameter-fitting approach, also known as trial and error parameter-fitting. In all, there are twenty one (21) parameters that control the functioning of the model. A lumped parametric approach is used. The detailed analysis was performed on Ling River near Kahuta, having catchment area of 56 sq. miles. The model includes physical parameters like GWSM, PETS, PGWRO, etc. fitting coefficients like CINF, CGWS, etc. and initial estimates of the surface-water and groundwater storages i.e. srosp and gwsp. Sensitivity analysis offers a good way, without repetititious computations, the proper weight and consideration that must be taken when each of the influencing factor is evaluated. Sensitivity-analysis was performed to evaluate the influence of model-parameters on runoff. The sensitivity and relative contributions of model parameters influencing catchment-response are studied. (author)

  16. Identification of ecosystem parameters by SDE-modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) for ecosystem modelling have attracted increasing attention during recent years. The modelling has mostly been through simulation experiments in order to analyse how system noise propagates through the ordinary differential equation formulation of ecosystem...... models. Estimation of parameters in SDEs is, however, possible by combining Kalman filter techniques and likelihood estimation. By modelling parameters as random walks it is possible to identify linear as well as non-linear interactions between ecosystem components. By formulating a simple linear SDE...

  17. Consistency, Verification, and Validation of Turbulence Models for Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumsey, Christopher L.

    2009-01-01

    In current practice, it is often difficult to draw firm conclusions about turbulence model accuracy when performing multi-code CFD studies ostensibly using the same model because of inconsistencies in model formulation or implementation in different codes. This paper describes an effort to improve the consistency, verification, and validation of turbulence models within the aerospace community through a website database of verification and validation cases. Some of the variants of two widely-used turbulence models are described, and two independent computer codes (one structured and one unstructured) are used in conjunction with two specific versions of these models to demonstrate consistency with grid refinement for several representative problems. Naming conventions, implementation consistency, and thorough grid resolution studies are key factors necessary for success.

  18. Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Engeland

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis

  19. Application of a Combined Model with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN in Forecasting Hepatitis Incidence in Heng County, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wudi Wei

    Full Text Available Hepatitis is a serious public health problem with increasing cases and property damage in Heng County. It is necessary to develop a model to predict the hepatitis epidemic that could be useful for preventing this disease.The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model and the generalized regression neural network (GRNN model were used to fit the incidence data from the Heng County CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention from January 2005 to December 2012. Then, the ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model was developed. The incidence data from January 2013 to December 2013 were used to validate the models. Several parameters, including mean absolute error (MAE, root mean square error (RMSE, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE and mean square error (MSE, were used to compare the performance among the three models.The morbidity of hepatitis from Jan 2005 to Dec 2012 has seasonal variation and slightly rising trend. The ARIMA(0,1,2(1,1,112 model was the most appropriate one with the residual test showing a white noise sequence. The smoothing factor of the basic GRNN model and the combined model was 1.8 and 0.07, respectively. The four parameters of the hybrid model were lower than those of the two single models in the validation. The parameters values of the GRNN model were the lowest in the fitting of the three models.The hybrid ARIMA-GRNN model showed better hepatitis incidence forecasting in Heng County than the single ARIMA model and the basic GRNN model. It is a potential decision-supportive tool for controlling hepatitis in Heng County.

  20. Brownian motion model with stochastic parameters for asset prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ching, Soo Huei; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2013-09-01

    The Brownian motion model may not be a completely realistic model for asset prices because in real asset prices the drift μ and volatility σ may change over time. Presently we consider a model in which the parameter x = (μ,σ) is such that its value x (t + Δt) at a short time Δt ahead of the present time t depends on the value of the asset price at time t + Δt as well as the present parameter value x(t) and m-1 other parameter values before time t via a conditional distribution. The Malaysian stock prices are used to compare the performance of the Brownian motion model with fixed parameter with that of the model with stochastic parameter.

  1. Dynamic average modeling of a bidirectional solid state transformer for feasibility studies and real-time implementation

    OpenAIRE

    Martínez Velasco, Juan Antonio; Alepuz Menéndez, Salvador; Gonzalez Molina, Francisco; Martín Arnedo, Jacinto

    2014-01-01

    Detailed switching models of power electronics devices often lead to long computing times, limiting the size of the system to be simulated. This drawback is especially important when the goal is to implement the model in a real-time simulation platform. An alternative is to use dynamic average models (DAM) for analyzing the dynamic behavior of power electronic devices. This paper presents the development of a DAM for a bidirectional solid-state transformer and its implementation in a real-tim...

  2. Control of Stochastic Master Equation Models of Genetic Regulatory Networks by Approximating Their Average Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umut Caglar, Mehmet; Pal, Ranadip

    2010-10-01

    The central dogma of molecular biology states that ``information cannot be transferred back from protein to either protein or nucleic acid.'' However, this assumption is not exactly correct in most of the cases. There are a lot of feedback loops and interactions between different levels of systems. These types of interactions are hard to analyze due to the lack of data in the cellular level and probabilistic nature of interactions. Probabilistic models like Stochastic Master Equation (SME) or deterministic models like differential equations (DE) can be used to analyze these types of interactions. SME models based on chemical master equation (CME) can provide detailed representation of genetic regulatory system, but their use is restricted by the large data requirements and computational costs of calculations. The differential equations models on the other hand, have low calculation costs and much more adequate to generate control procedures on the system; but they are not adequate to investigate the probabilistic nature of interactions. In this work the success of the mapping between SME and DE is analyzed, and the success of a control policy generated by DE model with respect to SME model is examined. Index Terms--- Stochastic Master Equation models, Differential Equation Models, Control Policy Design, Systems biology

  3. Zonally averaged model of dynamics, chemistry and radiation for the atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tung, K. K.

    1985-01-01

    A nongeostrophic theory of zonally averaged circulation is formulated using the nonlinear primitive equations on a sphere, taking advantage of the more direct relationship between the mean meridional circulation and diabatic heating rate which is available in isentropic coordinates. Possible differences between results of nongeostrophic theory and the commonly used geostrophic formulation are discussed concerning: (1) the role of eddy forcing of the diabatic circulation, and (2) the nonlinear nearly inviscid limit vs the geostrophic limit. Problems associated with the traditional Rossby number scaling in quasi-geostrophic formulations are pointed out and an alternate, more general scaling based on the smallness of mean meridional to zonal velocities for a rotating planet is suggested. Such a scaling recovers the geostrophic balanced wind relationship for the mean zonal flow but reveals that the mean meridional velocity is in general ageostrophic.

  4. Determination of the Corona model parameters with artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmet, Nayir; Bekir, Karlik; Arif, Hashimov

    2005-01-01

    Full text : The aim of this study is to calculate new model parameters taking into account the corona of electrical transmission line wires. For this purpose, a neural network modeling proposed for the corona frequent characteristics modeling. Then this model was compared with the other model developed at the Polytechnic Institute of Saint Petersburg. The results of development of the specified corona model for calculation of its influence on the wave processes in multi-wires line and determination of its parameters are submitted. Results of obtained calculation equations are brought for electrical transmission line with allowance for superficial effect in the ground and wires with reference to developed corona model

  5. Biological parameters for lung cancer in mathematical models of carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacob, P.; Jacob, V.

    2003-01-01

    Applications of the two-step model of carcinogenesis with clonal expansion (TSCE) to lung cancer data are reviewed, including those on atomic bomb survivors from Hiroshima and Nagasaki, British doctors, Colorado Plateau miners, and Chinese tin miners. Different sets of identifiable model parameters are used in the literature. The parameter set which could be determined with the lowest uncertainty consists of the net proliferation rate gamma of intermediate cells, the hazard h 55 at an intermediate age, and the hazard H? at an asymptotically large age. Also, the values of these three parameters obtained in the various studies are more consistent than other identifiable combinations of the biological parameters. Based on representative results for these three parameters, implications for the biological parameters in the TSCE model are derived. (author)

  6. Spatial models for probabilistic prediction of wind power with application to annual-average and high temporal resolution data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lenzi, Amanda; Pinson, Pierre; Clemmensen, Line Katrine Harder

    2017-01-01

    average wind power generation, and for a high temporal resolution (typically wind power averages over 15-min time steps). In both cases, we use a spatial hierarchical statistical model in which spatial correlation is captured by a latent Gaussian field. We explore how such models can be handled...... with stochastic partial differential approximations of Matérn Gaussian fields together with Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations. We demonstrate the proposed methods on wind farm data from Western Denmark, and compare the results to those obtained with standard geostatistical methods. The results show...

  7. Learning about physical parameters: the importance of model discrepancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brynjarsdóttir, Jenný; O'Hagan, Anthony

    2014-01-01

    Science-based simulation models are widely used to predict the behavior of complex physical systems. It is also common to use observations of the physical system to solve the inverse problem, that is, to learn about the values of parameters within the model, a process which is often called calibration. The main goal of calibration is usually to improve the predictive performance of the simulator but the values of the parameters in the model may also be of intrinsic scientific interest in their own right. In order to make appropriate use of observations of the physical system it is important to recognize model discrepancy, the difference between reality and the simulator output. We illustrate through a simple example that an analysis that does not account for model discrepancy may lead to biased and over-confident parameter estimates and predictions. The challenge with incorporating model discrepancy in statistical inverse problems is being confounded with calibration parameters, which will only be resolved with meaningful priors. For our simple example, we model the model-discrepancy via a Gaussian process and demonstrate that through accounting for model discrepancy our prediction within the range of data is correct. However, only with realistic priors on the model discrepancy do we uncover the true parameter values. Through theoretical arguments we show that these findings are typical of the general problem of learning about physical parameters and the underlying physical system using science-based mechanistic models. (paper)

  8. Spatio-temporal modeling of nonlinear distributed parameter systems

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Han-Xiong

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this volume is to provide a brief review of the previous work on model reduction and identifi cation of distributed parameter systems (DPS), and develop new spatio-temporal models and their relevant identifi cation approaches. In this book, a systematic overview and classifi cation on the modeling of DPS is presented fi rst, which includes model reduction, parameter estimation and system identifi cation. Next, a class of block-oriented nonlinear systems in traditional lumped parameter systems (LPS) is extended to DPS, which results in the spatio-temporal Wiener and Hammerstein s

  9. Depth-Averaged Non-Hydrostatic Hydrodynamic Model Using a New Multithreading Parallel Computing Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ling Kang

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Compared to the hydrostatic hydrodynamic model, the non-hydrostatic hydrodynamic model can accurately simulate flows that feature vertical accelerations. The model’s low computational efficiency severely restricts its wider application. This paper proposes a non-hydrostatic hydrodynamic model based on a multithreading parallel computing method. The horizontal momentum equation is obtained by integrating the Navier–Stokes equations from the bottom to the free surface. The vertical momentum equation is approximated by the Keller-box scheme. A two-step method is used to solve the model equations. A parallel strategy based on block decomposition computation is utilized. The original computational domain is subdivided into two subdomains that are physically connected via a virtual boundary technique. Two sub-threads are created and tasked with the computation of the two subdomains. The producer–consumer model and the thread lock technique are used to achieve synchronous communication between sub-threads. The validity of the model was verified by solitary wave propagation experiments over a flat bottom and slope, followed by two sinusoidal wave propagation experiments over submerged breakwater. The parallel computing method proposed here was found to effectively enhance computational efficiency and save 20%–40% computation time compared to serial computing. The parallel acceleration rate and acceleration efficiency are approximately 1.45% and 72%, respectively. The parallel computing method makes a contribution to the popularization of non-hydrostatic models.

  10. Diffuse radiation models and monthly-average, daily, diffuse data for a wide latitude range

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gopinathan, K.K.; Soler, A.

    1995-01-01

    Several years of measured data on global and diffuse radiation and sunshine duration for 40 widely spread locations in the latitude range 36° S to 60° N are used to develop and test models for estimating monthly-mean, daily, diffuse radiation on horizontal surfaces. Applicability of the clearness-index (K) and sunshine fraction (SSO) models for diffuse estimation and the effect of combining several variables into a single multilinear equation are tested. Correlations connecting the diffuse to global fraction (HdH) with K and SSO predict Hd values more accurately than their separate use. Among clearness-index and sunshine-fraction models, SSO models are found to have better accuracy if correlations are developed for wide latitude ranges. By including a term for declinations in the correlation, the accuracy of the estimated data can be marginally improved. The addition of latitude to the equation does not help to improve the accuracy further. (author)

  11. Parameters Estimation of Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression (GWOLR) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuhdi, Shaifudin; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi; Widyaningsih, Purnami

    2017-06-01

    A regression model is the representation of relationship between independent variable and dependent variable. The dependent variable has categories used in the logistic regression model to calculate odds on. The logistic regression model for dependent variable has levels in the logistics regression model is ordinal. GWOLR model is an ordinal logistic regression model influenced the geographical location of the observation site. Parameters estimation in the model needed to determine the value of a population based on sample. The purpose of this research is to parameters estimation of GWOLR model using R software. Parameter estimation uses the data amount of dengue fever patients in Semarang City. Observation units used are 144 villages in Semarang City. The results of research get GWOLR model locally for each village and to know probability of number dengue fever patient categories.

  12. Universally sloppy parameter sensitivities in systems biology models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan N Gutenkunst

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative computational models play an increasingly important role in modern biology. Such models typically involve many free parameters, and assigning their values is often a substantial obstacle to model development. Directly measuring in vivo biochemical parameters is difficult, and collectively fitting them to other experimental data often yields large parameter uncertainties. Nevertheless, in earlier work we showed in a growth-factor-signaling model that collective fitting could yield well-constrained predictions, even when it left individual parameters very poorly constrained. We also showed that the model had a "sloppy" spectrum of parameter sensitivities, with eigenvalues roughly evenly distributed over many decades. Here we use a collection of models from the literature to test whether such sloppy spectra are common in systems biology. Strikingly, we find that every model we examine has a sloppy spectrum of sensitivities. We also test several consequences of this sloppiness for building predictive models. In particular, sloppiness suggests that collective fits to even large amounts of ideal time-series data will often leave many parameters poorly constrained. Tests over our model collection are consistent with this suggestion. This difficulty with collective fits may seem to argue for direct parameter measurements, but sloppiness also implies that such measurements must be formidably precise and complete to usefully constrain many model predictions. We confirm this implication in our growth-factor-signaling model. Our results suggest that sloppy sensitivity spectra are universal in systems biology models. The prevalence of sloppiness highlights the power of collective fits and suggests that modelers should focus on predictions rather than on parameters.

  13. Universally sloppy parameter sensitivities in systems biology models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutenkunst, Ryan N; Waterfall, Joshua J; Casey, Fergal P; Brown, Kevin S; Myers, Christopher R; Sethna, James P

    2007-10-01

    Quantitative computational models play an increasingly important role in modern biology. Such models typically involve many free parameters, and assigning their values is often a substantial obstacle to model development. Directly measuring in vivo biochemical parameters is difficult, and collectively fitting them to other experimental data often yields large parameter uncertainties. Nevertheless, in earlier work we showed in a growth-factor-signaling model that collective fitting could yield well-constrained predictions, even when it left individual parameters very poorly constrained. We also showed that the model had a "sloppy" spectrum of parameter sensitivities, with eigenvalues roughly evenly distributed over many decades. Here we use a collection of models from the literature to test whether such sloppy spectra are common in systems biology. Strikingly, we find that every model we examine has a sloppy spectrum of sensitivities. We also test several consequences of this sloppiness for building predictive models. In particular, sloppiness suggests that collective fits to even large amounts of ideal time-series data will often leave many parameters poorly constrained. Tests over our model collection are consistent with this suggestion. This difficulty with collective fits may seem to argue for direct parameter measurements, but sloppiness also implies that such measurements must be formidably precise and complete to usefully constrain many model predictions. We confirm this implication in our growth-factor-signaling model. Our results suggest that sloppy sensitivity spectra are universal in systems biology models. The prevalence of sloppiness highlights the power of collective fits and suggests that modelers should focus on predictions rather than on parameters.

  14. Parameter estimation of variable-parameter nonlinear Muskingum model using excel solver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Ling; Zhou, Liwei

    2018-02-01

    Abstract . The Muskingum model is an effective flood routing technology in hydrology and water resources Engineering. With the development of optimization technology, more and more variable-parameter Muskingum models were presented to improve effectiveness of the Muskingum model in recent decades. A variable-parameter nonlinear Muskingum model (NVPNLMM) was proposed in this paper. According to the results of two real and frequently-used case studies by various models, the NVPNLMM could obtain better values of evaluation criteria, which are used to describe the superiority of the estimated outflows and compare the accuracies of flood routing using various models, and the optimal estimated outflows by the NVPNLMM were closer to the observed outflows than the ones by other models.

  15. Modeling and Parameter Estimation of a Small Wind Generation System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos A. Ramírez Gómez

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The modeling and parameter estimation of a small wind generation system is presented in this paper. The system consists of a wind turbine, a permanent magnet synchronous generator, a three phase rectifier, and a direct current load. In order to estimate the parameters wind speed data are registered in a weather station located in the Fraternidad Campus at ITM. Wind speed data were applied to a reference model programed with PSIM software. From that simulation, variables were registered to estimate the parameters. The wind generation system model together with the estimated parameters is an excellent representation of the detailed model, but the estimated model offers a higher flexibility than the programed model in PSIM software.

  16. NONLINEAR PLANT PIECEWISE-CONTINUOUS MODEL MATRIX PARAMETERS ESTIMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman L. Leibov

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a nonlinear plant piecewise-continuous model matrix parameters estimation technique using nonlinear model time responses and random search method. One of piecewise-continuous model application areas is defined. The results of proposed approach application for aircraft turbofan engine piecewisecontinuous model formation are presented

  17. Analysis of the spatial variation in the parameters of the SWAT model with application in Flanders, Northern Belgium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Heuvelmans

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Operational applications of a hydrological model often require the prediction of stream flow in (future time periods without stream flow observations or in ungauged catchments. Data for a case-specific optimisation of model parameters are not available for such applications, so parameters have to be derived from other catchments or time periods. It has been demonstrated that for applications of the SWAT in Northern Belgium, temporal transfers of the parameters have less influence than spatial transfers on the performance of the model. This study examines the spatial variation in parameter optima in more detail. The aim was to delineate zones wherein model parameters can be transferred without a significant loss of model performance. SWAT was calibrated for 25 catchments that are part of eight larger sub-basins of the Scheldt river basin. Two approaches are discussed for grouping these units in zones with a uniform set of parameters: a single parameter approach considering each parameter separately and a parameter set approach evaluating the parameterisation as a whole. For every catchment, the SWAT model was run with the local parameter optima, with the average parameter values for the entire study region (Flanders, with the zones delineated with the single parameter approach and with the zones obtained by the parameter set approach. Comparison of the model performances of these four parameterisation strategies indicates that both the single parameter and the parameter set zones lead to stream flow predictions that are more accurate than if the entire study region were treated as one single zone. On the other hand, the use of zonal average parameter values results in a considerably worse model fit compared to local parameter optima. Clustering of parameter sets gives a more accurate result than the single parameter approach and is, therefore, the preferred technique for use in the parameterisation of ungauged sub-catchments as part of the

  18. Hybrid support vector regression and autoregressive integrated moving average models improved by particle swarm optimization for property crime rates forecasting with economic indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alwee, Razana; Shamsuddin, Siti Mariyam Hj; Sallehuddin, Roselina

    2013-01-01

    Crimes forecasting is an important area in the field of criminology. Linear models, such as regression and econometric models, are commonly applied in crime forecasting. However, in real crimes data, it is common that the data consists of both linear and nonlinear components. A single model may not be sufficient to identify all the characteristics of the data. The purpose of this study is to introduce a hybrid model that combines support vector regression (SVR) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) to be applied in crime rates forecasting. SVR is very robust with small training data and high-dimensional problem. Meanwhile, ARIMA has the ability to model several types of time series. However, the accuracy of the SVR model depends on values of its parameters, while ARIMA is not robust to be applied to small data sets. Therefore, to overcome this problem, particle swarm optimization is used to estimate the parameters of the SVR and ARIMA models. The proposed hybrid model is used to forecast the property crime rates of the United State based on economic indicators. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid model is able to produce more accurate forecasting results as compared to the individual models.

  19. Hybrid Support Vector Regression and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models Improved by Particle Swarm Optimization for Property Crime Rates Forecasting with Economic Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Razana Alwee

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Crimes forecasting is an important area in the field of criminology. Linear models, such as regression and econometric models, are commonly applied in crime forecasting. However, in real crimes data, it is common that the data consists of both linear and nonlinear components. A single model may not be sufficient to identify all the characteristics of the data. The purpose of this study is to introduce a hybrid model that combines support vector regression (SVR and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA to be applied in crime rates forecasting. SVR is very robust with small training data and high-dimensional problem. Meanwhile, ARIMA has the ability to model several types of time series. However, the accuracy of the SVR model depends on values of its parameters, while ARIMA is not robust to be applied to small data sets. Therefore, to overcome this problem, particle swarm optimization is used to estimate the parameters of the SVR and ARIMA models. The proposed hybrid model is used to forecast the property crime rates of the United State based on economic indicators. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid model is able to produce more accurate forecasting results as compared to the individual models.

  20. Self-Averaging Property of Minimal Investment Risk of Mean-Variance Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinzato, Takashi

    2015-01-01

    In portfolio optimization problems, the minimum expected investment risk is not always smaller than the expected minimal investment risk. That is, using a well-known approach from operations research, it is possible to derive a strategy that minimizes the expected investment risk, but this strategy does not always result in the best rate of return on assets. Prior to making investment decisions, it is important to an investor to know the potential minimal investment risk (or the expected minimal investment risk) and to determine the strategy that will maximize the return on assets. We use the self-averaging property to analyze the potential minimal investment risk and the concentrated investment level for the strategy that gives the best rate of return. We compare the results from our method with the results obtained by the operations research approach and with those obtained by a numerical simulation using the optimal portfolio. The results of our method and the numerical simulation are in agreement, but they differ from that of the operations research approach.

  1. Self-Averaging Property of Minimal Investment Risk of Mean-Variance Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takashi Shinzato

    Full Text Available In portfolio optimization problems, the minimum expected investment risk is not always smaller than the expected minimal investment risk. That is, using a well-known approach from operations research, it is possible to derive a strategy that minimizes the expected investment risk, but this strategy does not always result in the best rate of return on assets. Prior to making investment decisions, it is important to an investor to know the potential minimal investment risk (or the expected minimal investment risk and to determine the strategy that will maximize the return on assets. We use the self-averaging property to analyze the potential minimal investment risk and the concentrated investment level for the strategy that gives the best rate of return. We compare the results from our method with the results obtained by the operations research approach and with those obtained by a numerical simulation using the optimal portfolio. The results of our method and the numerical simulation are in agreement, but they differ from that of the operations research approach.

  2. Analysis of subchannel effects and their treatment in average channel PWR core models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cuervo, D.; Ahnert, C.; Aragones, J.M.

    2004-01-01

    Neutronic thermal-hydraulic coupling is meanly made at this moment using whole plant thermal-hydraulic codes with one channel per assembly or quarter of assembly in more detailed cases. To extract safety limits variables a new calculation has to be performed using thermal-hydraulic subchannel codes in an embedded or off-line manner what implies an increase of calculation time. Another problem of this separated analysis of whole core and not channel is that the whole core calculation is not resolving the real problem due to the modification of the variables values by the homogenization process that is carried out to perform the whole core analysis. This process is making that some magnitudes are over or under-predicted causing that the problem that is being solved is not the original one. The purpose of the work that is being developed is to investigate the effects of the averaging process in the results obtained by the whole core analysis and to develop some corrections that may be included in this analysis to obtain results closer to the ones obtained by a detailed subchannel analysis. This paper shows the results obtained for a sample case and the conclusions for future work. (author)

  3. Identification of parameters of discrete-continuous models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cekus, Dawid; Warys, Pawel

    2015-01-01

    In the paper, the parameters of a discrete-continuous model have been identified on the basis of experimental investigations and formulation of optimization problem. The discrete-continuous model represents a cantilever stepped Timoshenko beam. The mathematical model has been formulated and solved according to the Lagrange multiplier formalism. Optimization has been based on the genetic algorithm. The presented proceeding’s stages make the identification of any parameters of discrete-continuous systems possible

  4. Identification of parameters of discrete-continuous models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cekus, Dawid, E-mail: cekus@imipkm.pcz.pl; Warys, Pawel, E-mail: warys@imipkm.pcz.pl [Institute of Mechanics and Machine Design Foundations, Czestochowa University of Technology, Dabrowskiego 73, 42-201 Czestochowa (Poland)

    2015-03-10

    In the paper, the parameters of a discrete-continuous model have been identified on the basis of experimental investigations and formulation of optimization problem. The discrete-continuous model represents a cantilever stepped Timoshenko beam. The mathematical model has been formulated and solved according to the Lagrange multiplier formalism. Optimization has been based on the genetic algorithm. The presented proceeding’s stages make the identification of any parameters of discrete-continuous systems possible.

  5. Reynolds averaged modelling of low momentum propane jet diffusion flames in cross flow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Majeski, A.J.; Chui, E.H. [Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). CANMET Energy Technology Centre; Kostiuk, L.W. [Alberta Univ., Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2003-07-01

    It is common practice to use continuous low flow rate flares to dispose of unwanted or by-product combustible gases resulting from the manufacturing process or oil recovery operations. This study evaluates the usefulness of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling in the context of low momentum flux reacting jets. The experimental data was gathered at the University of Alberta's Combustion Wind Tunnel. This data was used to compare data obtained from the CFD simulations. Only a small subset of the experimental conditions was used for the computational model. No attempt was made to fine tune any of the individual models. They were all part of the commercial CFD software package CFX-TASC flow, by ANSYS Inc. Flame length and angle results compared favourably with experiments. The shape of the plume changed significantly in the far field. This could be explained by distortion caused by the turbulence model used. A flame front model was incorporated in an effort to estimate combustion efficiency. The results obtained were not conclusive. 20 refs., 4 figs.

  6. Parameter estimation in stochastic rainfall-runoff models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa; Madsen, Henrik; Palsson, Olafur Petur

    2006-01-01

    A parameter estimation method for stochastic rainfall-runoff models is presented. The model considered in the paper is a conceptual stochastic model, formulated in continuous-discrete state space form. The model is small and a fully automatic optimization is, therefore, possible for estimating all...... the parameter values are optimal for simulation or prediction. The data originates from Iceland and the model is designed for Icelandic conditions, including a snow routine for mountainous areas. The model demands only two input data series, precipitation and temperature and one output data series...

  7. Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henrik; Johansen, Søren

    1999-01-01

    Some methods for the evaluation of parameter constancy in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are discussed. Two different ways of re-estimating the VAR model are proposed; one in which all parameters are estimated recursively based upon the likelihood function for the first observations, and anot...... be applied to test the constancy of the long-run parameters in the cointegrated VAR-model. All results are illustrated using a model for the term structure of interest rates on US Treasury securities. ......Some methods for the evaluation of parameter constancy in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are discussed. Two different ways of re-estimating the VAR model are proposed; one in which all parameters are estimated recursively based upon the likelihood function for the first observations......, and another in which the cointegrating relations are estimated recursively from a likelihood function, where the short-run parameters have been concentrated out. We suggest graphical procedures based on recursively estimated eigenvalues to evaluate the constancy of the long-run parameters in the model...

  8. Repetitive Identification of Structural Systems Using a Nonlinear Model Parameter Refinement Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeng-Wen Lin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a statistical confidence interval based nonlinear model parameter refinement approach for the health monitoring of structural systems subjected to seismic excitations. The developed model refinement approach uses the 95% confidence interval of the estimated structural parameters to determine their statistical significance in a least-squares regression setting. When the parameters' confidence interval covers the zero value, it is statistically sustainable to truncate such parameters. The remaining parameters will repetitively undergo such parameter sifting process for model refinement until all the parameters' statistical significance cannot be further improved. This newly developed model refinement approach is implemented for the series models of multivariable polynomial expansions: the linear, the Taylor series, and the power series model, leading to a more accurate identification as well as a more controllable design for system vibration control. Because the statistical regression based model refinement approach is intrinsically used to process a “batch” of data and obtain an ensemble average estimation such as the structural stiffness, the Kalman filter and one of its extended versions is introduced to the refined power series model for structural health monitoring.

  9. Incorporating model parameter uncertainty into inverse treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lian Jun; Xing Lei

    2004-01-01

    Radiobiological treatment planning depends not only on the accuracy of the models describing the dose-response relation of different tumors and normal tissues but also on the accuracy of tissue specific radiobiological parameters in these models. Whereas the general formalism remains the same, different sets of model parameters lead to different solutions and thus critically determine the final plan. Here we describe an inverse planning formalism with inclusion of model parameter uncertainties. This is made possible by using a statistical analysis-based frameset developed by our group. In this formalism, the uncertainties of model parameters, such as the parameter a that describes tissue-specific effect in the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) model, are expressed by probability density function and are included in the dose optimization process. We found that the final solution strongly depends on distribution functions of the model parameters. Considering that currently available models for computing biological effects of radiation are simplistic, and the clinical data used to derive the models are sparse and of questionable quality, the proposed technique provides us with an effective tool to minimize the effect caused by the uncertainties in a statistical sense. With the incorporation of the uncertainties, the technique has potential for us to maximally utilize the available radiobiology knowledge for better IMRT treatment

  10. What Type of Finance Matters for Growth? Bayesian Model Averaging Evidence

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Iftekhar, H.; Horváth, Roman; Mareš, J.

    -, - (2018) ISSN 0258-6770 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA16-09190S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : long-term economic growth * Bayesian model * uncertainty Subject RIV: AH - Economic s Impact factor: 1.431, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/horvath-0466516.pdf

  11. A time-averaged regional model of the Hermean magnetic field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thébault, E.; Langlais, B.; Oliveira, J. S.; Amit, H.; Leclercq, L.

    2018-03-01

    This paper presents the first regional model of the magnetic field of Mercury developed with mathematical continuous functions. The model has a horizontal spatial resolution of about 830 km at the surface of the planet, and it is derived without any a priori information about the geometry of the internal and external fields or regularization. It relies on an extensive dataset of the MESSENGER's measurements selected over its entire orbital lifetime between 2011 and 2015. A first order separation between the internal and the external fields over the Northern hemisphere is achieved under the assumption that the magnetic field measurements are acquired in a source free region within the magnetospheric cavity. When downward continued to the core-mantle boundary, the model confirms some of the general structures observed in previous studies such as the dominance of zonal field, the location of the North magnetic pole, and the global absence of significant small scale structures. The transformation of the regional model into a global spherical harmonic one provides an estimate for the axial quadrupole to axial dipole ratio of about g20/g10 = 0.27 . This is much lower than previous estimates of about 0.40. We note that it is possible to obtain a similar ratio provided that more weight is put on the location of the magnetic equator and less elsewhere.

  12. Maximum likelihood Bayesian averaging of airflow models in unsaturated fractured tuff using Occam and variance windows

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morales-Casique, E.; Neuman, S.P.; Vesselinov, V.V.

    2010-01-01

    We use log permeability and porosity data obtained from single-hole pneumatic packer tests in six boreholes drilled into unsaturated fractured tuff near Superior, Arizona, to postulate, calibrate and compare five alternative variogram models (exponential, exponential with linear drift, power,

  13. Tailored vs Black-Box Models for Forecasting Hourly Average Solar Irradiance

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brabec, Marek; Paulescu, M.; Badescu, V.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 111, January (2015), s. 320-331 ISSN 0038-092X R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12009 Grant - others:European Cooperation in Science and Technology(XE) COST ES1002 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : solar irradiance * forecasting * tilored statistical models Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 3.685, year: 2015

  14. Analytic Models of Domain-Averaged Fermi Holes: A New Tool for the

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ponec, Robert; Cooper, D.L.; Savin, A.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 11 (2008), s. 3338-3345 ISSN 0947-6539 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA4072403 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40720504 Keywords : bond theory * fermi hole analysis * lewis model Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 5.454, year: 2008

  15. Metallurgical source-contribution analysis of PM10 annual average concentration: A dispersion modeling approach in moravian-silesian region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Jančík

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article is to present analysis of metallurgical industry contribution to annual average PM10 concentrations in Moravian-Silesian based on means of the air pollution modelling in accord with the Czech reference methodology SYMOS´97.

  16. A method for model identification and parameter estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bambach, M; Heinkenschloss, M; Herty, M

    2013-01-01

    We propose and analyze a new method for the identification of a parameter-dependent model that best describes a given system. This problem arises, for example, in the mathematical modeling of material behavior where several competing constitutive equations are available to describe a given material. In this case, the models are differential equations that arise from the different constitutive equations, and the unknown parameters are coefficients in the constitutive equations. One has to determine the best-suited constitutive equations for a given material and application from experiments. We assume that the true model is one of the N possible parameter-dependent models. To identify the correct model and the corresponding parameters, we can perform experiments, where for each experiment we prescribe an input to the system and observe a part of the system state. Our approach consists of two stages. In the first stage, for each pair of models we determine the experiment, i.e. system input and observation, that best differentiates between the two models, and measure the distance between the two models. Then we conduct N(N − 1) or, depending on the approach taken, N(N − 1)/2 experiments and use the result of the experiments as well as the previously computed model distances to determine the true model. We provide sufficient conditions on the model distances and measurement errors which guarantee that our approach identifies the correct model. Given the model, we identify the corresponding model parameters in the second stage. The problem in the second stage is a standard parameter estimation problem and we use a method suitable for the given application. We illustrate our approach on three examples, including one where the models are elliptic partial differential equations with different parameterized right-hand sides and an example where we identify the constitutive equation in a problem from computational viscoplasticity. (paper)

  17. Modelling hydrodynamic parameters to predict flow assisted corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poulson, B.; Greenwell, B.; Chexal, B.; Horowitz, J.

    1992-01-01

    During the past 15 years, flow assisted corrosion has been a worldwide problem in the power generating industry. The phenomena is complex and depends on environment, material composition, and hydrodynamic factors. Recently, modeling of flow assisted corrosion has become a subject of great importance. A key part of this effort is modeling the hydrodynamic aspects of this issue. This paper examines which hydrodynamic parameter should be used to correlate the occurrence and rate of flow assisted corrosion with physically meaningful parameters, discusses ways of measuring the relevant hydrodynamic parameter, and describes how the hydrodynamic data is incorporated into the predictive model

  18. A Smoothing Algorithm for a New Two-Stage Stochastic Model of Supply Chain Based on Sample Average Approximation

    OpenAIRE

    Liu Yang; Yao Xiong; Xiao-jiao Tong

    2017-01-01

    We construct a new two-stage stochastic model of supply chain with multiple factories and distributors for perishable product. By introducing a second-order stochastic dominance (SSD) constraint, we can describe the preference consistency of the risk taker while minimizing the expected cost of company. To solve this problem, we convert it into a one-stage stochastic model equivalently; then we use sample average approximation (SAA) method to approximate the expected values of the underlying r...

  19. Modular model for Mercury's magnetospheric magnetic field confined within the average observed magnetopause.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korth, Haje; Tsyganenko, Nikolai A; Johnson, Catherine L; Philpott, Lydia C; Anderson, Brian J; Al Asad, Manar M; Solomon, Sean C; McNutt, Ralph L

    2015-06-01

    Accurate knowledge of Mercury's magnetospheric magnetic field is required to understand the sources of the planet's internal field. We present the first model of Mercury's magnetospheric magnetic field confined within a magnetopause shape derived from Magnetometer observations by the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging spacecraft. The field of internal origin is approximated by a dipole of magnitude 190 nT R M 3 , where R M is Mercury's radius, offset northward by 479 km along the spin axis. External field sources include currents flowing on the magnetopause boundary and in the cross-tail current sheet. The cross-tail current is described by a disk-shaped current near the planet and a sheet current at larger (≳ 5  R M ) antisunward distances. The tail currents are constrained by minimizing the root-mean-square (RMS) residual between the model and the magnetic field observed within the magnetosphere. The magnetopause current contributions are derived by shielding the field of each module external to the magnetopause by minimizing the RMS normal component of the magnetic field at the magnetopause. The new model yields improvements over the previously developed paraboloid model in regions that are close to the magnetopause and the nightside magnetic equatorial plane. Magnetic field residuals remain that are distributed systematically over large areas and vary monotonically with magnetic activity. Further advances in empirical descriptions of Mercury's magnetospheric external field will need to account for the dependence of the tail and magnetopause currents on magnetic activity and additional sources within the magnetosphere associated with Birkeland currents and plasma distributions near the dayside magnetopause.

  20. A distributed approach for parameters estimation in System Biology models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosca, E.; Merelli, I.; Alfieri, R.; Milanesi, L.

    2009-01-01

    Due to the lack of experimental measurements, biological variability and experimental errors, the value of many parameters of the systems biology mathematical models is yet unknown or uncertain. A possible computational solution is the parameter estimation, that is the identification of the parameter values that determine the best model fitting respect to experimental data. We have developed an environment to distribute each run of the parameter estimation algorithm on a different computational resource. The key feature of the implementation is a relational database that allows the user to swap the candidate solutions among the working nodes during the computations. The comparison of the distributed implementation with the parallel one showed that the presented approach enables a faster and better parameter estimation of systems biology models.

  1. Optimal parameters for the FFA-Beddoes dynamic stall model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoerck, A; Mert, M [FFA, The Aeronautical Research Institute of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden); Madsen, H A [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Unsteady aerodynamic effects, like dynamic stall, must be considered in calculation of dynamic forces for wind turbines. Models incorporated in aero-elastic programs are of semi-empirical nature. Resulting aerodynamic forces therefore depend on values used for the semi-empiricial parameters. In this paper a study of finding appropriate parameters to use with the Beddoes-Leishman model is discussed. Minimisation of the `tracking error` between results from 2D wind tunnel tests and simulation with the model is used to find optimum values for the parameters. The resulting optimum parameters show a large variation from case to case. Using these different sets of optimum parameters in the calculation of blade vibrations, give rise to quite different predictions of aerodynamic damping which is discussed. (au)

  2. Inconsistency in the average hydraulic models used in nuclear reactor design and safety analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Jee Won; Roh, Gyu Hong; Choi, Hang Bok [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-12-31

    One of important inconsistencies in the six-equation model predictions has been found to be the force experienced by a single bubble placed in a convergent stream of liquid. Various sets of governing equations yield different amount of forces to hold the bubble stationary in a convergent nozzle. By using the first order potential flow theory, it is found that the six-equation model can not be used to estimate the force experienced by a deformed bubble. The theoretical value of the particle stress of a bubble in a convergent nozzle flow has been found to be a function of the Weber number when bubble distortion is allowed. This force has been calculated by using different sets of governing equations and compared with the theoretical value. It is suggested in this study that the bubble size distribution function can be used to remove the presented inconsistency by relating the interfacial variables with different moments of the bubble size distribution function. This study also shows that the inconsistencies in the thermal-hydraulic governing equation can be removed by mechanistic modeling of the phasic interface. 11 refs., 3 figs. (Author)

  3. Inconsistency in the average hydraulic models used in nuclear reactor design and safety analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Jee Won; Roh, Gyu Hong; Choi, Hang Bok [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-12-31

    One of important inconsistencies in the six-equation model predictions has been found to be the force experienced by a single bubble placed in a convergent stream of liquid. Various sets of governing equations yield different amount of forces to hold the bubble stationary in a convergent nozzle. By using the first order potential flow theory, it is found that the six-equation model can not be used to estimate the force experienced by a deformed bubble. The theoretical value of the particle stress of a bubble in a convergent nozzle flow has been found to be a function of the Weber number when bubble distortion is allowed. This force has been calculated by using different sets of governing equations and compared with the theoretical value. It is suggested in this study that the bubble size distribution function can be used to remove the presented inconsistency by relating the interfacial variables with different moments of the bubble size distribution function. This study also shows that the inconsistencies in the thermal-hydraulic governing equation can be removed by mechanistic modeling of the phasic interface. 11 refs., 3 figs. (Author)

  4. Online State Space Model Parameter Estimation in Synchronous Machines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Gallehdari

    2014-06-01

    The suggested approach is evaluated for a sample synchronous machine model. Estimated parameters are tested for different inputs at different operating conditions. The effect of noise is also considered in this study. Simulation results show that the proposed approach provides good accuracy for parameter estimation.

  5. Influence of Boussinesq coefficient on depth-averaged modelling of rapid flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Fan; Liang, Dongfang; Xiao, Yang

    2018-04-01

    The traditional Alternating Direction Implicit (ADI) scheme has been proven to be incapable of modelling trans-critical flows. Its inherent lack of shock-capturing capability often results in spurious oscillations and computational instabilities. However, the ADI scheme is still widely adopted in flood modelling software, and various special treatments have been designed to stabilise the computation. Modification of the Boussinesq coefficient to adjust the amount of fluid inertia is a numerical treatment that allows the ADI scheme to be applicable to rapid flows. This study comprehensively examines the impact of this numerical treatment over a range of flow conditions. A shock-capturing TVD-MacCormack model is used to provide reference results. For unsteady flows over a frictionless bed, such as idealised dam-break floods, the results suggest that an increase in the value of the Boussinesq coefficient reduces the amplitude of the spurious oscillations. The opposite is observed for steady rapid flows over a frictional bed. Finally, a two-dimensional urban flooding phenomenon is presented, involving unsteady flow over a frictional bed. The results show that increasing the value of the Boussinesq coefficient can significantly reduce the numerical oscillations and reduce the predicted area of inundation. In order to stabilise the ADI computations, the Boussinesq coefficient could be judiciously raised or lowered depending on whether the rapid flow is steady or unsteady and whether the bed is frictional or frictionless. An increase in the Boussinesq coefficient generally leads to overprediction of the propagating speed of the flood wave over a frictionless bed, but the opposite is true when bed friction is significant.

  6. Parameter sensitivity analysis of a 1-D cold region lake model for land-surface schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrero, José-Luis; Pernica, Patricia; Wheater, Howard; Mackay, Murray; Spence, Chris

    2017-12-01

    Lakes might be sentinels of climate change, but the uncertainty in their main feedback to the atmosphere - heat-exchange fluxes - is often not considered within climate models. Additionally, these fluxes are seldom measured, hindering critical evaluation of model output. Analysis of the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM), a one-dimensional integral lake model, was performed to assess its ability to reproduce diurnal and seasonal variations in heat fluxes and the sensitivity of simulated fluxes to changes in model parameters, i.e., turbulent transport parameters and the light extinction coefficient (Kd). A C++ open-source software package, Problem Solving environment for Uncertainty Analysis and Design Exploration (PSUADE), was used to perform sensitivity analysis (SA) and identify the parameters that dominate model behavior. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) was applied to quantify the fluxes' uncertainty, comparing daily-averaged eddy-covariance observations to the output of CSLM. Seven qualitative and two quantitative SA methods were tested, and the posterior likelihoods of the modeled parameters, obtained from the GLUE analysis, were used to determine the dominant parameters and the uncertainty in the modeled fluxes. Despite the ubiquity of the equifinality issue - different parameter-value combinations yielding equivalent results - the answer to the question was unequivocal: Kd, a measure of how much light penetrates the lake, dominates sensible and latent heat fluxes, and the uncertainty in their estimates is strongly related to the accuracy with which Kd is determined. This is important since accurate and continuous measurements of Kd could reduce modeling uncertainty.

  7. Complexity, parameter sensitivity and parameter transferability in the modelling of floodplain inundation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, P. D.; Neal, J. C.; Fewtrell, T. J.

    2012-12-01

    In this we paper we consider two related questions. First, we address the issue of how much physical complexity is necessary in a model in order to simulate floodplain inundation to within validation data error. This is achieved through development of a single code/multiple physics hydraulic model (LISFLOOD-FP) where different degrees of complexity can be switched on or off. Different configurations of this code are applied to four benchmark test cases, and compared to the results of a number of industry standard models. Second we address the issue of how parameter sensitivity and transferability change with increasing complexity using numerical experiments with models of different physical and geometric intricacy. Hydraulic models are a good example system with which to address such generic modelling questions as: (1) they have a strong physical basis; (2) there is only one set of equations to solve; (3) they require only topography and boundary conditions as input data; and (4) they typically require only a single free parameter, namely boundary friction. In terms of complexity required we show that for the problem of sub-critical floodplain inundation a number of codes of different dimensionality and resolution can be found to fit uncertain model validation data equally well, and that in this situation Occam's razor emerges as a useful logic to guide model selection. We find also find that model skill usually improves more rapidly with increases in model spatial resolution than increases in physical complexity, and that standard approaches to testing hydraulic models against laboratory data or analytical solutions may fail to identify this important fact. Lastly, we find that in benchmark testing studies significant differences can exist between codes with identical numerical solution techniques as a result of auxiliary choices regarding the specifics of model implementation that are frequently unreported by code developers. As a consequence, making sound

  8. Determination of the Orientation and Dynamics of Ergosterol in Model Membranes Using Uniform 13C Labeling and Dynamically Averaged 13C Chemical Shift Anisotropies as Experimental Restraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soubias, O.; Jolibois, F.; Massou, S.; Milon, A.; Réat, V.

    2005-01-01

    A new strategy was established to determine the average orientation and dynamics of ergosterol in dimyristoylphosphatidylcholine model membranes. It is based on the analysis of chemical shift anisotropies (CSAs) averaged by the molecular dynamics. Static 13C CSA tensors were computed by quantum chemistry, using the gauge-including atomic-orbital approach within Hartree-Fock theory. Uniformly 13C-labeled ergosterol was purified from Pichia pastoris cells grown on labeled methanol. After reconstitution into dimyristoylphosphatidylcholine lipids, the complete 1H and 13C assignment of ergosterol's resonances was performed using a combination of magic-angle spinning two-dimensional experiments. Dynamically averaged CSAs were determined by standard side-band intensity analysis for isolated 13C resonances (C3 and ethylenic carbons) and by off-magic-angle spinning experiments for other carbons. A set of 18 constraints was thus obtained, from which the sterol's molecular order parameter and average orientation could be precisely defined. The validity of using computed CSAs in this strategy was verified on cholesterol model systems. This new method allowed us to quantify ergosterol's dynamics at three molar ratios: 16 mol % (Ld phase), 30 mol % (Lo phase), and 23 mol % (mixed phases). Contrary to cholesterol, ergosterol's molecular diffusion axis makes an important angle (14°) with the inertial axis of the rigid four-ring system. PMID:15923221

  9. Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falcone, Giuseppe; Murru, Maura; Console, Rodolfo; Marzocchi, Warner; Zhuang, Jiancang

    2016-04-01

    We present a retrospective ETAS (Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence) model based on the daily updating of free parameters during the background, the learning and the test phase of a seismic sequence. The idea was born after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) Center in Japan provided an appropriate testing benchmark for the five 1-day submitted models. Of all the models, only one was able to successfully predict the number of events that really happened. This result was verified using both the real time and the revised catalogs. The main cause of the failure was in the underestimation of the forecasted events, due to model parameters maintained fixed during the test. Moreover, the absence in the learning catalog of an event similar to the magnitude of the mainshock (M9.0), which drastically changed the seismicity in the area, made the learning parameters not suitable to describe the real seismicity. As an example of this methodological development we show the evolution of the model parameters during the last two strong seismic sequences in Italy: the 2009 L'Aquila and the 2012 Reggio Emilia episodes. The achievement of the model with daily updated parameters is compared with that of same model where the parameters remain fixed during the test time.

  10. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch

    2003-06-20

    This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN.

  11. The x rescaling parameter' formula of the extended x rescaling model and the nuclear effect l-A DIS process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao Yonghua; He Mingzhong; Duan Chungui

    2003-01-01

    The authors present an x rescaling parameters' formula for partons in the extended x rescaling model, where we have established the connection between the rescaling parameter and the mean binding energy. Using x rescaling parameters obtained by the x rescaling parameters' formula, we calculate the average nucleon structure function ratio of DIS process in l-A (Al, Ca, Pb) collision to l-C collision respectively. The result is in good agreement with experimental data

  12. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  13. Uncertainty in dual permeability model parameters for structured soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, B.; Mohanty, B. P.; McGuire, J. T.

    2012-01-01

    Successful application of dual permeability models (DPM) to predict contaminant transport is contingent upon measured or inversely estimated soil hydraulic and solute transport parameters. The difficulty in unique identification of parameters for the additional macropore- and matrix-macropore interface regions, and knowledge about requisite experimental data for DPM has not been resolved to date. Therefore, this study quantifies uncertainty in dual permeability model parameters of experimental soil columns with different macropore distributions (single macropore, and low- and high-density multiple macropores). Uncertainty evaluation is conducted using adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (AMCMC) and conventional Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithms while assuming 10 out of 17 parameters to be uncertain or random. Results indicate that AMCMC resolves parameter correlations and exhibits fast convergence for all DPM parameters while MH displays large posterior correlations for various parameters. This study demonstrates that the choice of parameter sampling algorithms is paramount in obtaining unique DPM parameters when information on covariance structure is lacking, or else additional information on parameter correlations must be supplied to resolve the problem of equifinality of DPM parameters. This study also highlights the placement and significance of matrix-macropore interface in flow experiments of soil columns with different macropore densities. Histograms for certain soil hydraulic parameters display tri-modal characteristics implying that macropores are drained first followed by the interface region and then by pores of the matrix domain in drainage experiments. Results indicate that hydraulic properties and behavior of the matrix-macropore interface is not only a function of saturated hydraulic conductivity of the macroporematrix interface (Ksa) and macropore tortuosity (lf) but also of other parameters of the matrix and macropore domains.

  14. Maximum stress estimation model for multi-span waler beams with deflections at the supports using average strains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sung Woo; Oh, Byung Kwan; Park, Hyo Seon

    2015-03-30

    The safety of a multi-span waler beam subjected simultaneously to a distributed load and deflections at its supports can be secured by limiting the maximum stress of the beam to a specific value to prevent the beam from reaching a limit state for failure or collapse. Despite the fact that the vast majority of accidents on construction sites occur at waler beams in retaining wall systems, no safety monitoring model that can consider deflections at the supports of the beam is available. In this paper, a maximum stress estimation model for a waler beam based on average strains measured from vibrating wire strain gauges (VWSGs), the most frequently used sensors in construction field, is presented. The model is derived by defining the relationship between the maximum stress and the average strains measured from VWSGs. In addition to the maximum stress, support reactions, deflections at supports, and the magnitudes of distributed loads for the beam structure can be identified by the estimation model using the average strains. Using simulation tests on two multi-span beams, the performance of the model is evaluated by estimating maximum stress, deflections at supports, support reactions, and the magnitudes of distributed loads.

  15. Maximum Stress Estimation Model for Multi-Span Waler Beams with Deflections at the Supports Using Average Strains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung Woo Park

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The safety of a multi-span waler beam subjected simultaneously to a distributed load and deflections at its supports can be secured by limiting the maximum stress of the beam to a specific value to prevent the beam from reaching a limit state for failure or collapse. Despite the fact that the vast majority of accidents on construction sites occur at waler beams in retaining wall systems, no safety monitoring model that can consider deflections at the supports of the beam is available. In this paper, a maximum stress estimation model for a waler beam based on average strains measured from vibrating wire strain gauges (VWSGs, the most frequently used sensors in construction field, is presented. The model is derived by defining the relationship between the maximum stress and the average strains measured from VWSGs. In addition to the maximum stress, support reactions, deflections at supports, and the magnitudes of distributed loads for the beam structure can be identified by the estimation model using the average strains. Using simulation tests on two multi-span beams, the performance of the model is evaluated by estimating maximum stress, deflections at supports, support reactions, and the magnitudes of distributed loads.

  16. Modelling the average velocity of propagation of the flame front in a gasoline engine with hydrogen additives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolenskaya, N. M.; Smolenskii, V. V.

    2018-01-01

    The paper presents models for calculating the average velocity of propagation of the flame front, obtained from the results of experimental studies. Experimental studies were carried out on a single-cylinder gasoline engine UIT-85 with hydrogen additives up to 6% of the mass of fuel. The article shows the influence of hydrogen addition on the average velocity propagation of the flame front in the main combustion phase. The dependences of the turbulent propagation velocity of the flame front in the second combustion phase on the composition of the mixture and operating modes. The article shows the influence of the normal combustion rate on the average flame propagation velocity in the third combustion phase.

  17. Luminescence model with quantum impact parameter for low energy ions

    CERN Document Server

    Cruz-Galindo, H S; Martínez-Davalos, A; Belmont-Moreno, E; Galindo, S

    2002-01-01

    We have modified an analytical model of induced light production by energetic ions interacting in scintillating materials. The original model is based on the distribution of energy deposited by secondary electrons produced along the ion's track. The range of scattered electrons, and thus the energy distribution, depends on a classical impact parameter between the electron and the ion's track. The only adjustable parameter of the model is the quenching density rho sub q. The modification here presented, consists in proposing a quantum impact parameter that leads to a better fit of the model to the experimental data at low incident ion energies. The light output response of CsI(Tl) detectors to low energy ions (<3 MeV/A) is fitted with the modified model and comparison is made to the original model.

  18. Retrospective cost adaptive Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes k-ω model for data-driven unsteady turbulent simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhiyong; Hoagg, Jesse B.; Martin, Alexandre; Bailey, Sean C. C.

    2018-03-01

    This paper presents a data-driven computational model for simulating unsteady turbulent flows, where sparse measurement data is available. The model uses the retrospective cost adaptation (RCA) algorithm to automatically adjust the closure coefficients of the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) k- ω turbulence equations to improve agreement between the simulated flow and the measurements. The RCA-RANS k- ω model is verified for steady flow using a pipe-flow test case and for unsteady flow using a surface-mounted-cube test case. Measurements used for adaptation of the verification cases are obtained from baseline simulations with known closure coefficients. These verification test cases demonstrate that the RCA-RANS k- ω model can successfully adapt the closure coefficients to improve agreement between the simulated flow field and a set of sparse flow-field measurements. Furthermore, the RCA-RANS k- ω model improves agreement between the simulated flow and the baseline flow at locations at which measurements do not exist. The RCA-RANS k- ω model is also validated with experimental data from 2 test cases: steady pipe flow, and unsteady flow past a square cylinder. In both test cases, the adaptation improves agreement with experimental data in comparison to the results from a non-adaptive RANS k- ω model that uses the standard values of the k- ω closure coefficients. For the steady pipe flow, adaptation is driven by mean stream-wise velocity measurements at 24 locations along the pipe radius. The RCA-RANS k- ω model reduces the average velocity error at these locations by over 35%. For the unsteady flow over a square cylinder, adaptation is driven by time-varying surface pressure measurements at 2 locations on the square cylinder. The RCA-RANS k- ω model reduces the average surface-pressure error at these locations by 88.8%.

  19. Atomic process calculations in hot dense plasmas using average atom models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Velarde, G.; Aragones, J.M.; Gamez, L.; Honrubia, J.J.; Martinez-Val, J.M.; Minguez, E.; Ocana, J.L.; Perlado, J.M.; Serrano, J.F.

    1987-01-01

    During the past years, an important effort has been devoted in the authors Institute to develop the NORCLA code, which in the first version was characterized by the following features: one-dimensional lagrangian mesh; equilibrium between radiation, ion and electron species; local alpha energy deposition; neutron transport by the discrete ordinates method and analytical equation of state, opacities and conductivities. In the successive versions of NORCLA, EOS and electron conductivities were modified by the pressure ionization and degeneracy corrections; a module was also developed for computing the energy deposition of the incident ion beams coupled to the energy equation, and a code to calculate the alpha particle transport and energy deposition. Recently, a 3T version of the NORCLA code, with tabular EOS, opacities and conductivities, laser ray tracing and suprathermal electrons transport has been produced. In this article, the atomic physic models developed to determine more accurate the atomic data, such as EOS and opacities are explained, giving a brief description and a comparison of them. As a result of this development, a DENIM Atomic Data Library is being generated, taking some data and procedures from the SESAME Library. This library is presented, including a comparison of the opacity data for aluminium and iron at different densities and temperatures. Conclusions about this work are presented, and the ongoing developments summarized

  20. Oyster Creek cycle 10 nodal model parameter optimization study using PSMS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dougher, J.D.

    1987-01-01

    The power shape monitoring system (PSMS) is an on-line core monitoring system that uses a three-dimensional nodal code (NODE-B) to perform nodal power calculations and compute thermal margins. The PSMS contains a parameter optimization function that improves the ability of NODE-B to accurately monitor core power distributions. This functions iterates on the model normalization parameters (albedos and mixing factors) to obtain the best agreement between predicted and measured traversing in-core probe (TIP) reading on a statepoint-by-statepoint basis. Following several statepoint optimization runs, an average set of optimized normalization parameters can be determined and can be implemented into the current or subsequent cycle core model for on-line core monitoring. A statistical analysis of 19 high-power steady-state state-points throughout Oyster Creek cycle 10 operation has shown a consistently poor virgin model performance. The normalization parameters used in the cycle 10 NODE-B model were based on a cycle 8 study, which evaluated only Exxon fuel types. The introduction of General Electric (GE) fuel into cycle 10 (172 assemblies) was a significant fuel/core design change that could have altered the optimum set of normalization parameters. Based on the need to evaluate a potential change in the model normalization parameters for cycle 11 and in an attempt to account for the poor cycle 10 model performance, a parameter optimization study was performed

  1. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-01-01

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters

  2. Determining extreme parameter correlation in ground water models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hill, Mary Cole; Østerby, Ole

    2003-01-01

    can go undetected even by experienced modelers. Extreme parameter correlation can be detected using parameter correlation coefficients, but their utility depends on the presence of sufficient, but not excessive, numerical imprecision of the sensitivities, such as round-off error. This work...... investigates the information that can be obtained from parameter correlation coefficients in the presence of different levels of numerical imprecision, and compares it to the information provided by an alternative method called the singular value decomposition (SVD). Results suggest that (1) calculated...... correlation coefficients with absolute values that round to 1.00 were good indicators of extreme parameter correlation, but smaller values were not necessarily good indicators of lack of correlation and resulting unique parameter estimates; (2) the SVD may be more difficult to interpret than parameter...

  3. Uncertainty of Modal Parameters Estimated by ARMA Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jacob Laigaard; Brincker, Rune; Rytter, Anders

    1990-01-01

    In this paper the uncertainties of identified modal parameters such as eidenfrequencies and damping ratios are assed. From the measured response of dynamic excited structures the modal parameters may be identified and provide important structural knowledge. However the uncertainty of the parameters...... by simulation study of a lightly damped single degree of freedom system. Identification by ARMA models has been choosen as system identification method. It is concluded that both the sampling interval and number of sampled points may play a significant role with respect to the statistical errors. Furthermore......, it is shown that the model errors may also contribute significantly to the uncertainty....

  4. SPOTting Model Parameters Using a Ready-Made Python Package.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Houska

    Full Text Available The choice for specific parameter estimation methods is often more dependent on its availability than its performance. We developed SPOTPY (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool, an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of methods typically used to calibrate, analyze and optimize parameters for a wide range of ecological models. SPOTPY currently contains eight widely used algorithms, 11 objective functions, and can sample from eight parameter distributions. SPOTPY has a model-independent structure and can be run in parallel from the workstation to large computation clusters using the Message Passing Interface (MPI. We tested SPOTPY in five different case studies to parameterize the Rosenbrock, Griewank and Ackley functions, a one-dimensional physically based soil moisture routine, where we searched for parameters of the van Genuchten-Mualem function and a calibration of a biogeochemistry model with different objective functions. The case studies reveal that the implemented SPOTPY methods can be used for any model with just a minimal amount of code for maximal power of parameter optimization. They further show the benefit of having one package at hand that includes number of well performing parameter search methods, since not every case study can be solved sufficiently with every algorithm or every objective function.

  5. Parameter resolution in two models for cell survival after radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Cera, E.; Andreasi Bassi, F.; Arcovito, G.

    1989-01-01

    The resolvability of model parameters for the linear-quadratic and the repair-misrepair models for cell survival after radiation has been studied by Monte Carlo simulations as a function of the number of experimental data points collected in a given dose range and the experimental error. Statistical analysis of the results reveals the range of experimental conditions under which the model parameters can be resolved with sufficient accuracy, and points out some differences in the operational aspects of the two models. (orig.)

  6. Updating parameters of the chicken processing line model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kurowicka, Dorota; Nauta, Maarten; Jozwiak, Katarzyna

    2010-01-01

    A mathematical model of chicken processing that quantitatively describes the transmission of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses from slaughter to chicken meat product has been developed in Nauta et al. (2005). This model was quantified with expert judgment. Recent availability of data allows...... updating parameters of the model to better describe processes observed in slaughterhouses. We propose Bayesian updating as a suitable technique to update expert judgment with microbiological data. Berrang and Dickens’s data are used to demonstrate performance of this method in updating parameters...... of the chicken processing line model....

  7. Lumped-parameter Model of a Bucket Foundation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars; Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten

    2009-01-01

    efficient model that can be applied in aero-elastic codes for fast evaluation of the dynamic structural response of wind turbines. The target solutions, utilised for calibration of the lumped-parameter models, are obtained by a coupled finite-element/boundaryelement scheme in the frequency domain......, and the quality of the models are tested in the time and frequency domains. It is found that precise results are achieved by lumped-parameter models with two to four internal degrees of freedom per displacement or rotation of the foundation. Further, coupling between the horizontal sliding and rocking cannot...

  8. Lumped-Parameter Models for Windturbine Footings on Layered Ground

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    The design of modern wind turbines is typically based on lifetime analyses using aeroelastic codes. In this regard, the impedance of the foundations must be described accurately without increasing the overall size of the computationalmodel significantly. This may be obtained by the fitting...... of a lumped-parameter model to the results of a rigorous model or experimental results. In this paper, guidelines are given for the formulation of such lumped-parameter models and examples are given in which the models are utilised for the analysis of a wind turbine supported by a surface footing on a layered...

  9. Automatic individual arterial input functions calculated from PCA outperform manual and population-averaged approaches for the pharmacokinetic modeling of DCE-MR images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanz-Requena, Roberto; Prats-Montalbán, José Manuel; Martí-Bonmatí, Luis; Alberich-Bayarri, Ángel; García-Martí, Gracián; Pérez, Rosario; Ferrer, Alberto

    2015-08-01

    To introduce a segmentation method to calculate an automatic arterial input function (AIF) based on principal component analysis (PCA) of dynamic contrast enhanced MR (DCE-MR) imaging and compare it with individual manually selected and population-averaged AIFs using calculated pharmacokinetic parameters. The study included 65 individuals with prostate examinations (27 tumors and 38 controls). Manual AIFs were individually extracted and also averaged to obtain a population AIF. Automatic AIFs were individually obtained by applying PCA to volumetric DCE-MR imaging data and finding the highest correlation of the PCs with a reference AIF. Variability was assessed using coefficients of variation and repeated measures tests. The different AIFs were used as inputs to the pharmacokinetic model and correlation coefficients, Bland-Altman plots and analysis of variance tests were obtained to compare the results. Automatic PCA-based AIFs were successfully extracted in all cases. The manual and PCA-based AIFs showed good correlation (r between pharmacokinetic parameters ranging from 0.74 to 0.95), with differences below the manual individual variability (RMSCV up to 27.3%). The population-averaged AIF showed larger differences (r from 0.30 to 0.61). The automatic PCA-based approach minimizes the variability associated to obtaining individual volume-based AIFs in DCE-MR studies of the prostate. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. MODELING OF FUEL SPRAY CHARACTERISTICS AND DIESEL COMBUSTION CHAMBER PARAMETERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. Kukharonak

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The computer model for coordination of fuel spray characteristics with diesel combustion chamber parameters has been created in the paper.  The model allows to observe fuel sprays  develоpment in diesel cylinder at any moment of injection, to calculate characteristics of fuel sprays with due account of a shape and dimensions of a combustion chamber, timely to change fuel injection characteristics and supercharging parameters, shape and dimensions of a combustion chamber. Moreover the computer model permits to determine parameters of holes in an injector nozzle that provides the required fuel sprays characteristics at the stage of designing a diesel engine. Combustion chamber parameters for 4ЧН11/12.5 diesel engine have been determined in the paper.

  11. Seasonal and spatial variation in broadleaf forest model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groenendijk, M.; van der Molen, M. K.; Dolman, A. J.

    2009-04-01

    Process based, coupled ecosystem carbon, energy and water cycle models are used with the ultimate goal to project the effect of future climate change on the terrestrial carbon cycle. A typical dilemma in such exercises is how much detail the model must be given to describe the observations reasonably realistic while also be general. We use a simple vegetation model (5PM) with five model parameters to study the variability of the parameters. These parameters are derived from the observed carbon and water fluxes from the FLUXNET database. For 15 broadleaf forests the model parameters were derived for different time resolutions. It appears that in general for all forests, the correlation coefficient between observed and simulated carbon and water fluxes improves with a higher parameter time resolution. The quality of the simulations is thus always better when a higher time resolution is used. These results show that annual parameters are not capable of properly describing weather effects on ecosystem fluxes, and that two day time resolution yields the best results. A first indication of the climate constraints can be found by the seasonal variation of the covariance between Jm, which describes the maximum electron transport for photosynthesis, and climate variables. A general seasonality we found is that during winter the covariance with all climate variables is zero. Jm increases rapidly after initial spring warming, resulting in a large covariance with air temperature and global radiation. During summer Jm is less variable, but co-varies negatively with air temperature and vapour pressure deficit and positively with soil water content. A temperature response appears during spring and autumn for broadleaf forests. This shows that an annual model parameter cannot be representative for the entire year. And relations with mean annual temperature are not possible. During summer the photosynthesis parameters are constrained by water availability, soil water content and

  12. Progress on reference input parameter library for nuclear model calculations of nuclear data (III)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Su Zongdi; Liu Jianfeng; Huang Zhongfu

    1997-01-01

    A new set of the average neutron resonance spacings D 0 and neutron strength functions S 0 for 309 nuclei were reestimated on the basis of the resolved resonance parameters reevaluated from BNL-325, ENDF/B-6, JEF-2, and JENDL-3, and the cumulative number N 0 of low low lying levels for 344 nuclei were also reevaluated by means of histograms. Three sets of level density parameters for the Gilbert-Cameron (GC) formula, back-shifted Fermi gas model(BS) and generated superfluid model (GSM) have been reesitmated by fitting the D 0 and N 0 values of CENPL.LRD-2

  13. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-09-10

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis

  14. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573])

  15. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-10

    This analysis is one of 10 reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception.

  16. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-01-01

    This analysis is one of 10 reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception

  17. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasiolek, M. A.

    2003-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699], Section 6.2). Parameter values

  18. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-06-27

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699

  19. Numerical calculation of the dispersion of heat and material in rivers by means of a depth-averaged model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pavlovic, R.N.

    1981-01-01

    Nowadays, our rivers are polluted to an ever increasing degree by industrial and domestic discharges of waste heat and sewage. An important task of environmental protection is to predict the consequences of such pollutions in order to be able to plan and perform protective measures. For the solution of this problem a reliable mathematical model is very helpful. In the present paper a depth-averaged model is developed consisting of a two-dimensional elliptical model component for the direct near-field of a discharge and a two-dimensional parabolic separate model for the calculation of longer river distances further downstream. This model is exhaustively tested by application to a number of laboratory flows and real discharges to rivers. (orig./RW) [de

  20. Positioning performance of the NTCM model driven by GPS Klobuchar model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoque, Mohammed Mainul; Jakowski, Norbert; Berdermann, Jens

    2018-03-01

    Users of the Global Positioning System (GPS) utilize the Ionospheric Correction Algorithm (ICA) also known as Klobuchar model for correcting ionospheric signal delay or range error. Recently, we developed an ionosphere correction algorithm called NTCM-Klobpar model for single frequency GNSS applications. The model is driven by a parameter computed from GPS Klobuchar model and consecutively can be used instead of the GPS Klobuchar model for ionospheric corrections. In the presented work we compare the positioning solutions obtained using NTCM-Klobpar with those using the Klobuchar model. Our investigation using worldwide ground GPS data from a quiet and a perturbed ionospheric and geomagnetic activity period of 17 days each shows that the 24-hour prediction performance of the NTCM-Klobpar is better than the GPS Klobuchar model in global average. The root mean squared deviation of the 3D position errors are found to be about 0.24 and 0.45 m less for the NTCM-Klobpar compared to the GPS Klobuchar model during quiet and perturbed condition, respectively. The presented algorithm has the potential to continuously improve the accuracy of GPS single frequency mass market devices with only little software modification.

  1. Reflector modelization for neutronic diffusion and parameters identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Argaud, J.P.

    1993-04-01

    Physical parameters of neutronic diffusion equations can be adjusted to decrease calculations-measurements errors. The reflector being always difficult to modelize, we choose to elaborate a new reflector model and to use the parameters of this model as adjustment coefficients in the identification procedure. Using theoretical results, and also the physical behaviour of neutronic flux solutions, the reflector model consists then in its replacement by boundary conditions for the diffusion equations on the core only. This theoretical result of non-local operator relations leads then to some discrete approximations by taking into account the multiscaled behaviour, on the core-reflector interface, of neutronic diffusion solutions. The resulting model of this approach is then compared with previous reflector modelizations, and first results indicate that this new model gives the same representation of reflector for the core than previous. (author). 12 refs

  2. Short-term electricity prices forecasting based on support vector regression and Auto-regressive integrated moving average modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Che Jinxing; Wang Jianzhou

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we present the use of different mathematical models to forecast electricity price under deregulated power. A successful prediction tool of electricity price can help both power producers and consumers plan their bidding strategies. Inspired by that the support vector regression (SVR) model, with the ε-insensitive loss function, admits of the residual within the boundary values of ε-tube, we propose a hybrid model that combines both SVR and Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to take advantage of the unique strength of SVR and ARIMA models in nonlinear and linear modeling, which is called SVRARIMA. A nonlinear analysis of the time-series indicates the convenience of nonlinear modeling, the SVR is applied to capture the nonlinear patterns. ARIMA models have been successfully applied in solving the residuals regression estimation problems. The experimental results demonstrate that the model proposed outperforms the existing neural-network approaches, the traditional ARIMA models and other hybrid models based on the root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error.

  3. Regionalising Parameters of a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    IHACRES, a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was calibrated to six catchments ranging in size from 49km2 to 600 km2 within the upper Tana River basin to obtain a set of model parameters that characterise the hydrological behaviour within the region. Physical catchment attributes indexing topography, soil and ...

  4. Constraint on Parameters of Inverse Compton Scattering Model for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    B2319+60, two parameters of inverse Compton scattering model, the initial Lorentz factor and the factor of energy loss of relativistic particles are constrained. Key words. Pulsar—inverse Compton scattering—emission mechanism. 1. Introduction. Among various kinds of models for pulsar radio emission, the inverse ...

  5. Geometry parameters for musculoskeletal modelling of the shoulder system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Helm, F C; Veeger, DirkJan (H. E. J.); Pronk, G M; Van der Woude, L H; Rozendal, R H

    A dynamical finite-element model of the shoulder mechanism consisting of thorax, clavicula, scapula and humerus is outlined. The parameters needed for the model are obtained in a cadaver experiment consisting of both shoulders of seven cadavers. In this paper, in particular, the derivation of

  6. Rain storm models and the relationship between their parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stol, P.T.

    1977-01-01

    Rainfall interstation correlation functions can be obtained with the aid of analytic rainfall or storm models. Since alternative storm models have different mathematical formulas, comparison should be based on equallity of parameters like storm diameter, mean rainfall amount, storm maximum or total

  7. Average current is better than peak current as therapeutic dosage for biphasic waveforms in a ventricular fibrillation pig model of cardiac arrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Bihua; Yu, Tao; Ristagno, Giuseppe; Quan, Weilun; Li, Yongqin

    2014-10-01

    Defibrillation current has been shown to be a clinically more relevant dosing unit than energy. However, the effects of average and peak current in determining shock outcome are still undetermined. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between average current, peak current and defibrillation success when different biphasic waveforms were employed. Ventricular fibrillation (VF) was electrically induced in 22 domestic male pigs. Animals were then randomized to receive defibrillation using one of two different biphasic waveforms. A grouped up-and-down defibrillation threshold-testing protocol was used to maintain the average success rate of 50% in the neighborhood. In 14 animals (Study A), defibrillations were accomplished with either biphasic truncated exponential (BTE) or rectilinear biphasic waveforms. In eight animals (Study B), shocks were delivered using two BTE waveforms that had identical peak current but different waveform durations. Both average and peak currents were associated with defibrillation success when BTE and rectilinear waveforms were investigated. However, when pathway impedance was less than 90Ω for the BTE waveform, bivariate correlation coefficient was 0.36 (p=0.001) for the average current, but only 0.21 (p=0.06) for the peak current in Study A. In Study B, a high defibrillation success (67.9% vs. 38.8%, pcurrent (14.9±2.1A vs. 13.5±1.7A, pcurrent unchanged. In this porcine model of VF, average current was better than peak current to be an adequate parameter to describe the therapeutic dosage when biphasic defibrillation waveforms were used. The institutional protocol number: P0805. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Lumped-parameters equivalent circuit for condenser microphones modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esteves, Josué; Rufer, Libor; Ekeom, Didace; Basrour, Skandar

    2017-10-01

    This work presents a lumped parameters equivalent model of condenser microphone based on analogies between acoustic, mechanical, fluidic, and electrical domains. Parameters of the model were determined mainly through analytical relations and/or finite element method (FEM) simulations. Special attention was paid to the air gap modeling and to the use of proper boundary condition. Corresponding lumped-parameters were obtained as results of FEM simulations. Because of its simplicity, the model allows a fast simulation and is readily usable for microphone design. This work shows the validation of the equivalent circuit on three real cases of capacitive microphones, including both traditional and Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems structures. In all cases, it has been demonstrated that the sensitivity and other related data obtained from the equivalent circuit are in very good agreement with available measurement data.

  9. Adaptive radiotherapy with an average anatomy model: Evaluation and quantification of residual deformations in head and neck cancer patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kranen, Simon van; Mencarelli, Angelo; Beek, Suzanne van; Rasch, Coen; Herk, Marcel van; Sonke, Jan-Jakob

    2013-01-01

    Background and purpose: To develop and validate an adaptive intervention strategy for radiotherapy of head-and-neck cancer that accounts for systematic deformations by modifying the planning-CT (pCT) to the average misalignments in daily cone beam CT (CBCT) measured with deformable registration (DR). Methods and materials: Daily CBCT scans (808 scans) for 25 patients were retrospectively registered to the pCT with B-spline DR. The average deformation vector field ( ) was used to deform the pCT for adaptive intervention. Two strategies were simulated: single intervention after 10 fractions and weekly intervention with an from the previous week. The model was geometrically validated with the residual misalignment of anatomical landmarks both on bony-anatomy (BA; automatically generated) and soft-tissue (ST; manually identified). Results: Systematic deformations were 2.5/3.4 mm vector length (BA/ST). Single intervention reduced deformations to 1.5/2.7 mm (BA/ST). Weekly intervention resulted in 1.0/2.2 mm (BA/ST) and accounted better for progressive changes. 15 patients had average systematic deformations >2 mm (BA): reductions were 1.1/1.9 mm (single/weekly BA). ST improvements were underestimated due to observer and registration variability. Conclusions: Adaptive intervention with a pCT modified to the average anatomy during treatment successfully reduces systematic deformations. The improved accuracy could possibly be exploited in margin reduction and/or dose escalation

  10. A software for parameter estimation in dynamic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Yuceer

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available A common problem in dynamic systems is to determine parameters in an equation used to represent experimental data. The goal is to determine the values of model parameters that provide the best fit to measured data, generally based on some type of least squares or maximum likelihood criterion. In the most general case, this requires the solution of a nonlinear and frequently non-convex optimization problem. Some of the available software lack in generality, while others do not provide ease of use. A user-interactive parameter estimation software was needed for identifying kinetic parameters. In this work we developed an integration based optimization approach to provide a solution to such problems. For easy implementation of the technique, a parameter estimation software (PARES has been developed in MATLAB environment. When tested with extensive example problems from literature, the suggested approach is proven to provide good agreement between predicted and observed data within relatively less computing time and iterations.

  11. Inferring the temperature dependence of Beremin cleavage model parameters from the Master Curve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao Yupeng; Hui Hu; Wang Guozhen; Xuan Fuzhen

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → Temperature dependence of Beremin model parameters is inferred by Master Curve approach. → Weibull modulus decreases while Weibull stress scale parameter increases with increasing the temperature. → Estimation of Weibull stress parameters in terms of small amounts of specimens leads to a considerable uncertainty. - Abstract: The temperature dependence of Beremin model parameters in the ductile-to-brittle transition region was addressed by employing the Master Curve. Monte Carlo simulation was performed to produce a large number of 1T fracture toughness data randomly drawn from the scatter band at a temperature of interest and thus to determine Beremin model parameters. In terms of the experimental data of a C-Mn steel (the 16MnR steel in China), results revealed that the Weibull modulus, m, decreases with temperature over the lower transition range and remains a constant in the lower-to-mid transition region. The Weibull scale parameter, σ u , increases with temperature over the temperature range of investigated. A small sample may lead to a considerable uncertainty in estimates of the Weibull stress parameters. However, no significant difference was observed for the average of Weibull stress parameters from different sample sizes.

  12. Determination of appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Ik-Kyu; Kim, Jong-Hwan; Min, Beong-Tae; Hong, Seong-Wan

    2008-03-15

    The purpose of the present work is to use experiments that have been performed at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe during about the last ten years for determining the most appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations. The results of a QUEOS experiment are used to fix the parameters concerning heat transfer. The QUEOS experiments are especially suited for this purpose as they have been performed with small hot solid spheres. Therefore the area of heat exchange is known. With the heat transfer parameters fixed in this way, a PREMIX experiment is recalculated. These experiments have been performed with molten alumina (Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}) as a simulant of corium. Its initial temperature is 2600 K. With these experiments the models and parameters for jet and drop break-up are tested.

  13. Parameter identification in a nonlinear nuclear reactor model using quasilinearization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barreto, J.M.; Martins Neto, A.F.; Tanomaru, N.

    1980-09-01

    Parameter identification in a nonlinear, lumped parameter, nuclear reactor model is carried out using discrete output power measurements during the transient caused by an external reactivity change. In order to minimize the difference between the model and the reactor power responses, the parameter promt neutron generation time and a parameter in fuel temperature reactivity coefficient equation are adjusted using quasilinearization. The influences of the external reactivity disturbance, the number and frequency of measurements and the measurement noise level on the method accuracy and rate of convergence are analysed through simulation. Procedures for the design of the identification experiments are suggested. The method proved to be very effective for low level noise measurements. (Author) [pt

  14. Determination of appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Ik-Kyu; Kim, Jong-Hwan; Min, Beong-Tae; Hong, Seong-Wan

    2008-03-01

    The purpose of the present work is to use experiments that have been performed at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe during about the last ten years for determining the most appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations. The results of a QUEOS experiment are used to fix the parameters concerning heat transfer. The QUEOS experiments are especially suited for this purpose as they have been performed with small hot solid spheres. Therefore the area of heat exchange is known. With the heat transfer parameters fixed in this way, a PREMIX experiment is recalculated. These experiments have been performed with molten alumina (Al 2 O 3 ) as a simulant of corium. Its initial temperature is 2600 K. With these experiments the models and parameters for jet and drop break-up are tested

  15. Condition Parameter Modeling for Anomaly Detection in Wind Turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonglong Yan

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Data collected from the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA system, used widely in wind farms to obtain operational and condition information about wind turbines (WTs, is of important significance for anomaly detection in wind turbines. The paper presents a novel model for wind turbine anomaly detection mainly based on SCADA data and a back-propagation neural network (BPNN for automatic selection of the condition parameters. The SCADA data sets are determined through analysis of the cumulative probability distribution of wind speed and the relationship between output power and wind speed. The automatic BPNN-based parameter selection is for reduction of redundant parameters for anomaly detection in wind turbines. Through investigation of cases of WT faults, the validity of the automatic parameter selection-based model for WT anomaly detection is verified.

  16. Ground level enhancement (GLE) energy spectrum parameters model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, G.; Wu, S.

    2017-12-01

    We study the ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 with the four energy spectra parameters, the normalization parameter C, low-energy power-law slope γ 1, high-energy power-law slope γ 2, and break energy E0, obtained by Mewaldt et al. 2012 who fit the observations to the double power-law equation. we divide the GLEs into two groups, one with strong acceleration by interplanetary (IP) shocks and another one without strong acceleration according to the condition of solar eruptions. We next fit the four parameters with solar event conditions to get models of the parameters for the two groups of GLEs separately. So that we would establish a model of energy spectrum for GLEs for the future space weather prediction.

  17. Applications of Analytical Self-Similar Solutions of Reynolds-Averaged Models for Instability-Induced Turbulent Mixing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartland, Tucker; Schilling, Oleg

    2017-11-01

    Analytical self-similar solutions to several families of single- and two-scale, eddy viscosity and Reynolds stress turbulence models are presented for Rayleigh-Taylor, Richtmyer-Meshkov, and Kelvin-Helmholtz instability-induced turbulent mixing. The use of algebraic relationships between model coefficients and physical observables (e.g., experimental growth rates) following from the self-similar solutions to calibrate a member of a given family of turbulence models is shown. It is demonstrated numerically that the algebraic relations accurately predict the value and variation of physical outputs of a Reynolds-averaged simulation in flow regimes that are consistent with the simplifying assumptions used to derive the solutions. The use of experimental and numerical simulation data on Reynolds stress anisotropy ratios to calibrate a Reynolds stress model is briefly illustrated. The implications of the analytical solutions for future Reynolds-averaged modeling of hydrodynamic instability-induced mixing are briefly discussed. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  18. Bayesian model averaging method for evaluating associations between air pollution and respiratory mortality: a time-series study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Xin; Li, Runkui; Kan, Haidong; Bottai, Matteo; Fang, Fang; Cao, Yang

    2016-08-16

    To demonstrate an application of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) with generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) and provide a novel modelling technique to assess the association between inhalable coarse particles (PM10) and respiratory mortality in time-series studies. A time-series study using regional death registry between 2009 and 2010. 8 districts in a large metropolitan area in Northern China. 9559 permanent residents of the 8 districts who died of respiratory diseases between 2009 and 2010. Per cent increase in daily respiratory mortality rate (MR) per interquartile range (IQR) increase of PM10 concentration and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) in single-pollutant and multipollutant (including NOx, CO) models. The Bayesian model averaged GAMM (GAMM+BMA) and the optimal GAMM of PM10, multipollutants and principal components (PCs) of multipollutants showed comparable results for the effect of PM10 on daily respiratory MR, that is, one IQR increase in PM10 concentration corresponded to 1.38% vs 1.39%, 1.81% vs 1.83% and 0.87% vs 0.88% increase, respectively, in daily respiratory MR. However, GAMM+BMA gave slightly but noticeable wider CIs for the single-pollutant model (-1.09 to 4.28 vs -1.08 to 3.93) and the PCs-based model (-2.23 to 4.07 vs -2.03 vs 3.88). The CIs of the multiple-pollutant model from two methods are similar, that is, -1.12 to 4.85 versus -1.11 versus 4.83. The BMA method may represent a useful tool for modelling uncertainty in time-series studies when evaluating the effect of air pollution on fatal health outcomes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  19. A note on modeling of tumor regression for estimation of radiobiological parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhong, Hualiang; Chetty, Indrin

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Accurate calculation of radiobiological parameters is crucial to predicting radiation treatment response. Modeling differences may have a significant impact on derived parameters. In this study, the authors have integrated two existing models with kinetic differential equations to formulate a new tumor regression model for estimation of radiobiological parameters for individual patients. Methods: A system of differential equations that characterizes the birth-and-death process of tumor cells in radiation treatment was analytically solved. The solution of this system was used to construct an iterative model (Z-model). The model consists of three parameters: tumor doubling time T d , half-life of dead cells T r , and cell survival fraction SF D under dose D. The Jacobian determinant of this model was proposed as a constraint to optimize the three parameters for six head and neck cancer patients. The derived parameters were compared with those generated from the two existing models: Chvetsov's model (C-model) and Lim's model (L-model). The C-model and L-model were optimized with the parameter T d fixed. Results: With the Jacobian-constrained Z-model, the mean of the optimized cell survival fractions is 0.43 ± 0.08, and the half-life of dead cells averaged over the six patients is 17.5 ± 3.2 days. The parameters T r and SF D optimized with the Z-model differ by 1.2% and 20.3% from those optimized with the T d -fixed C-model, and by 32.1% and 112.3% from those optimized with the T d -fixed L-model, respectively. Conclusions: The Z-model was analytically constructed from the differential equations of cell populations that describe changes in the number of different tumor cells during the course of radiation treatment. The Jacobian constraints were proposed to optimize the three radiobiological parameters. The generated model and its optimization method may help develop high-quality treatment regimens for individual patients

  20. Entropy Parameter M in Modeling a Flow Duration Curve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Zhang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A flow duration curve (FDC is widely used for predicting water supply, hydropower, environmental flow, sediment load, and pollutant load. Among different methods of constructing an FDC, the entropy-based method, developed recently, is appealing because of its several desirable characteristics, such as simplicity, flexibility, and statistical basis. This method contains a parameter, called entropy parameter M, which constitutes the basis for constructing the FDC. Since M is related to the ratio of the average streamflow to the maximum streamflow which, in turn, is related to the drainage area, it may be possible to determine M a priori and construct an FDC for ungauged basins. This paper, therefore, analyzed the characteristics of M in both space and time using streamflow data from 73 gauging stations in the Brazos River basin, Texas, USA. Results showed that the M values were impacted by reservoir operation and possibly climate change. The values were fluctuating, but relatively stable, after the operation of the reservoirs. Parameter M was found to change inversely with the ratio of average streamflow to the maximum streamflow. When there was an extreme event, there occurred a jump in the M value. Further, spatially, M had a larger value if the drainage area was small.

  1. Parameters Optimization and Application to Glutamate Fermentation Model Using SVM

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Xiangsheng; Pan, Feng

    2015-01-01

    Aimed at the parameters optimization in support vector machine (SVM) for glutamate fermentation modelling, a new method is developed. It optimizes the SVM parameters via an improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) algorithm which has better global searching ability. The algorithm includes detecting and handling the local convergence and exhibits strong ability to avoid being trapped in local minima. The material step of the method was shown. Simulation experiments demonstrate the effective...

  2. Parameters Optimization and Application to Glutamate Fermentation Model Using SVM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangsheng Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aimed at the parameters optimization in support vector machine (SVM for glutamate fermentation modelling, a new method is developed. It optimizes the SVM parameters via an improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO algorithm which has better global searching ability. The algorithm includes detecting and handling the local convergence and exhibits strong ability to avoid being trapped in local minima. The material step of the method was shown. Simulation experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

  3. A Bayesian framework for parameter estimation in dynamical models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávio Codeço Coelho

    Full Text Available Mathematical models in biology are powerful tools for the study and exploration of complex dynamics. Nevertheless, bringing theoretical results to an agreement with experimental observations involves acknowledging a great deal of uncertainty intrinsic to our theoretical representation of a real system. Proper handling of such uncertainties is key to the successful usage of models to predict experimental or field observations. This problem has been addressed over the years by many tools for model calibration and parameter estimation. In this article we present a general framework for uncertainty analysis and parameter estimation that is designed to handle uncertainties associated with the modeling of dynamic biological systems while remaining agnostic as to the type of model used. We apply the framework to fit an SIR-like influenza transmission model to 7 years of incidence data in three European countries: Belgium, the Netherlands and Portugal.

  4. A lumped parameter, low dimension model of heat exchanger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanoh, Hideaki; Furushoo, Junji; Masubuchi, Masami

    1980-01-01

    This paper reports on the results of investigation of the distributed parameter model, the difference model, and the model of the method of weighted residuals for heat exchangers. By the method of weighted residuals (MWR), the opposite flow heat exchanger system is approximated by low dimension, lumped parameter model. By assuming constant specific heat, constant density, the same form of tube cross-section, the same form of the surface of heat exchange, uniform flow velocity, the linear relation of heat transfer to flow velocity, liquid heat carrier, and the thermal insulation of liquid from outside, fundamental equations are obtained. The experimental apparatus was made of acrylic resin. The response of the temperature at the exit of first liquid to the variation of the flow rate of second liquid was measured and compared with the models. The MWR model shows good approximation for the low frequency region, and as the number of division increases, good approximation spreads to higher frequency region. (Kato, T.)

  5. Single nuclear transfer strengths and sum rules in the interacting boson-fermion model and in the spectral averaging theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kota, V.K.B.

    1991-01-01

    In the interacting boson-fermion model of collective nuclei, in the symmetry limits of the model appropriate for vibrational, rotational and γ-unstable nuclei, for one-particle transfer, the selection rules, model predictions for the allowed strengths and comparison of theory with experiment are briefly reviewed. In the spectral-averaging theory, with the specific example of orbit occupancies, the smoothed forms (linear or better ratio of Gaussians) as determined by central limit theorems, how they provide a good criterion for selecting effective interactions and the convolution structure of occupancy densities in huge spaces are described. Complementary information provided by nuclear models and statistical laws is broughtout. (author). 63 refs., 5 figs

  6. Technical Note: Using experimentally determined proton spot scanning timing parameters to accurately model beam delivery time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Jiajian; Tryggestad, Erik; Younkin, James E; Keole, Sameer R; Furutani, Keith M; Kang, Yixiu; Herman, Michael G; Bues, Martin

    2017-10-01

    To accurately model the beam delivery time (BDT) for a synchrotron-based proton spot scanning system using experimentally determined beam parameters. A model to simulate the proton spot delivery sequences was constructed, and BDT was calculated by summing times for layer switch, spot switch, and spot delivery. Test plans were designed to isolate and quantify the relevant beam parameters in the operation cycle of the proton beam therapy delivery system. These parameters included the layer switch time, magnet preparation and verification time, average beam scanning speeds in x- and y-directions, proton spill rate, and maximum charge and maximum extraction time for each spill. The experimentally determined parameters, as well as the nominal values initially provided by the vendor, served as inputs to the model to predict BDTs for 602 clinical proton beam deliveries. The calculated BDTs (T BDT ) were compared with the BDTs recorded in the treatment delivery log files (T Log ): ∆t = T Log -T BDT . The experimentally determined average layer switch time for all 97 energies was 1.91 s (ranging from 1.9 to 2.0 s for beam energies from 71.3 to 228.8 MeV), average magnet preparation and verification time was 1.93 ms, the average scanning speeds were 5.9 m/s in x-direction and 19.3 m/s in y-direction, the proton spill rate was 8.7 MU/s, and the maximum proton charge available for one acceleration is 2.0 ± 0.4 nC. Some of the measured parameters differed from the nominal values provided by the vendor. The calculated BDTs using experimentally determined parameters matched the recorded BDTs of 602 beam deliveries (∆t = -0.49 ± 1.44 s), which were significantly more accurate than BDTs calculated using nominal timing parameters (∆t = -7.48 ± 6.97 s). An accurate model for BDT prediction was achieved by using the experimentally determined proton beam therapy delivery parameters, which may be useful in modeling the interplay effect and patient throughput. The model may

  7. Reservoir theory, groundwater transit time distributions, and lumped parameter models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Etcheverry, D.; Perrochet, P.

    1999-01-01

    The relation between groundwater residence times and transit times is given by the reservoir theory. It allows to calculate theoretical transit time distributions in a deterministic way, analytically, or on numerical models. Two analytical solutions validates the piston flow and the exponential model for simple conceptual flow systems. A numerical solution of a hypothetical regional groundwater flow shows that lumped parameter models could be applied in some cases to large-scale, heterogeneous aquifers. (author)

  8. Sensitivity Analysis and Parameter Estimation for a Reactive Transport Model of Uranium Bioremediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, P. D.; Yabusaki, S.; Curtis, G. P.; Ye, M.; Fang, Y.

    2011-12-01

    A three-dimensional, variably-saturated flow and multicomponent biogeochemical reactive transport model of uranium bioremediation was used to generate synthetic data . The 3-D model was based on a field experiment at the U.S. Dept. of Energy Rifle Integrated Field Research Challenge site that used acetate biostimulation of indigenous metal reducing bacteria to catalyze the conversion of aqueous uranium in the +6 oxidation state to immobile solid-associated uranium in the +4 oxidation state. A key assumption in past modeling studies at this site was that a comprehensive reaction network could be developed largely through one-dimensional modeling. Sensitivity analyses and parameter estimation were completed for a 1-D reactive transport model abstracted from the 3-D model to test this assumption, to identify parameters with the greatest potential to contribute to model predictive uncertainty, and to evaluate model structure and data limitations. Results showed that sensitivities of key biogeochemical concentrations varied in space and time, that model nonlinearities and/or parameter interactions have a significant impact on calculated sensitivities, and that the complexity of the model's representation of processes affecting Fe(II) in the system may make it difficult to correctly attribute observed Fe(II) behavior to modeled processes. Non-uniformity of the 3-D simulated groundwater flux and averaging of the 3-D synthetic data for use as calibration targets in the 1-D modeling resulted in systematic errors in the 1-D model parameter estimates and outputs. This occurred despite using the same reaction network for 1-D modeling as used in the data-generating 3-D model. Predictive uncertainty of the 1-D model appeared to be significantly underestimated by linear parameter uncertainty estimates.

  9. The effect of various parameters of large scale radio propagation models on improving performance mobile communications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinem, M.; Fauzi, R.

    2018-02-01

    One technique for ensuring continuity of wireless communication services and keeping a smooth transition on mobile communication networks is the soft handover technique. In the Soft Handover (SHO) technique the inclusion and reduction of Base Station from the set of active sets is determined by initiation triggers. One of the initiation triggers is based on the strong reception signal. In this paper we observed the influence of parameters of large-scale radio propagation models to improve the performance of mobile communications. The observation parameters for characterizing the performance of the specified mobile system are Drop Call, Radio Link Degradation Rate and Average Size of Active Set (AS). The simulated results show that the increase in altitude of Base Station (BS) Antenna and Mobile Station (MS) Antenna contributes to the improvement of signal power reception level so as to improve Radio Link quality and increase the average size of Active Set and reduce the average Drop Call rate. It was also found that Hata’s propagation model contributed significantly to improvements in system performance parameters compared to Okumura’s propagation model and Lee’s propagation model.

  10. Variability of dynamic source parameters inferred from kinematic models of past earthquakes

    KAUST Repository

    Causse, M.

    2013-12-24

    We analyse the scaling and distribution of average dynamic source properties (fracture energy, static, dynamic and apparent stress drops) using 31 kinematic inversion models from 21 crustal earthquakes. Shear-stress histories are computed by solving the elastodynamic equations while imposing the slip velocity of a kinematic source model as a boundary condition on the fault plane. This is achieved using a 3-D finite difference method in which the rupture kinematics are modelled with the staggered-grid-split-node fault representation method of Dalguer & Day. Dynamic parameters are then estimated from the calculated stress-slip curves and averaged over the fault plane. Our results indicate that fracture energy, static, dynamic and apparent stress drops tend to increase with magnitude. The epistemic uncertainty due to uncertainties in kinematic inversions remains small (ϕ ∼ 0.1 in log10 units), showing that kinematic source models provide robust information to analyse the distribution of average dynamic source parameters. The proposed scaling relations may be useful to constrain friction law parameters in spontaneous dynamic rupture calculations for earthquake source studies, and physics-based near-source ground-motion prediction for seismic hazard and risk mitigation.

  11. A depth-averaged debris-flow model that includes the effects of evolving dilatancy. I. physical basis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iverson, Richard M.; George, David L.

    2014-01-01

    To simulate debris-flow behaviour from initiation to deposition, we derive a depth-averaged, two-phase model that combines concepts of critical-state soil mechanics, grain-flow mechanics and fluid mechanics. The model's balance equations describe coupled evolution of the solid volume fraction, m, basal pore-fluid pressure, flow thickness and two components of flow velocity. Basal friction is evaluated using a generalized Coulomb rule, and fluid motion is evaluated in a frame of reference that translates with the velocity of the granular phase, vs. Source terms in each of the depth-averaged balance equations account for the influence of the granular dilation rate, defined as the depth integral of ∇⋅vs. Calculation of the dilation rate involves the effects of an elastic compressibility and an inelastic dilatancy angle proportional to m−meq, where meq is the value of m in equilibrium with the ambient stress state and flow rate. Normalization of the model equations shows that predicted debris-flow behaviour depends principally on the initial value of m−meq and on the ratio of two fundamental timescales. One of these timescales governs downslope debris-flow motion, and the other governs pore-pressure relaxation that modifies Coulomb friction and regulates evolution of m. A companion paper presents a suite of model predictions and tests.

  12. SPOTting model parameters using a ready-made Python package

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houska, Tobias; Kraft, Philipp; Breuer, Lutz

    2015-04-01

    The selection and parameterization of reliable process descriptions in ecological modelling is driven by several uncertainties. The procedure is highly dependent on various criteria, like the used algorithm, the likelihood function selected and the definition of the prior parameter distributions. A wide variety of tools have been developed in the past decades to optimize parameters. Some of the tools are closed source. Due to this, the choice for a specific parameter estimation method is sometimes more dependent on its availability than the performance. A toolbox with a large set of methods can support users in deciding about the most suitable method. Further, it enables to test and compare different methods. We developed the SPOT (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool), an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of modules, to analyze and optimize parameters of (environmental) models. SPOT comes along with a selected set of algorithms for parameter optimization and uncertainty analyses (Monte Carlo, MC; Latin Hypercube Sampling, LHS; Maximum Likelihood, MLE; Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC; Scuffled Complex Evolution, SCE-UA; Differential Evolution Markov Chain, DE-MCZ), together with several likelihood functions (Bias, (log-) Nash-Sutcliff model efficiency, Correlation Coefficient, Coefficient of Determination, Covariance, (Decomposed-, Relative-, Root-) Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Error, Agreement Index) and prior distributions (Binomial, Chi-Square, Dirichlet, Exponential, Laplace, (log-, multivariate-) Normal, Pareto, Poisson, Cauchy, Uniform, Weibull) to sample from. The model-independent structure makes it suitable to analyze a wide range of applications. We apply all algorithms of the SPOT package in three different case studies. Firstly, we investigate the response of the Rosenbrock function, where the MLE algorithm shows its strengths. Secondly, we study the Griewank function, which has a challenging response surface for

  13. Modelling of intermittent microwave convective drying: parameter sensitivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Zhijun

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The reliability of the predictions of a mathematical model is a prerequisite to its utilization. A multiphase porous media model of intermittent microwave convective drying is developed based on the literature. The model considers the liquid water, gas and solid matrix inside of food. The model is simulated by COMSOL software. Its sensitivity parameter is analysed by changing the parameter values by ±20%, with the exception of several parameters. The sensitivity analysis of the process of the microwave power level shows that each parameter: ambient temperature, effective gas diffusivity, and evaporation rate constant, has significant effects on the process. However, the surface mass, heat transfer coefficient, relative and intrinsic permeability of the gas, and capillary diffusivity of water do not have a considerable effect. The evaporation rate constant has minimal parameter sensitivity with a ±20% value change, until it is changed 10-fold. In all results, the temperature and vapour pressure curves show the same trends as the moisture content curve. However, the water saturation at the medium surface and in the centre show different results. Vapour transfer is the major mass transfer phenomenon that affects the drying process.

  14. Synchronous Generator Model Parameter Estimation Based on Noisy Dynamic Waveforms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berhausen, Sebastian; Paszek, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, there have occurred system failures in many power systems all over the world. They have resulted in a lack of power supply to a large number of recipients. To minimize the risk of occurrence of power failures, it is necessary to perform multivariate investigations, including simulations, of power system operating conditions. To conduct reliable simulations, the current base of parameters of the models of generating units, containing the models of synchronous generators, is necessary. In the paper, there is presented a method for parameter estimation of a synchronous generator nonlinear model based on the analysis of selected transient waveforms caused by introducing a disturbance (in the form of a pseudorandom signal) in the generator voltage regulation channel. The parameter estimation was performed by minimizing the objective function defined as a mean square error for deviations between the measurement waveforms and the waveforms calculated based on the generator mathematical model. A hybrid algorithm was used for the minimization of the objective function. In the paper, there is described a filter system used for filtering the noisy measurement waveforms. The calculation results of the model of a 44 kW synchronous generator installed on a laboratory stand of the Institute of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science of the Silesian University of Technology are also given. The presented estimation method can be successfully applied to parameter estimation of different models of high-power synchronous generators operating in a power system.

  15. A compact cyclic plasticity model with parameter evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krenk, Steen; Tidemann, L.

    2017-01-01

    The paper presents a compact model for cyclic plasticity based on energy in terms of external and internal variables, and plastic yielding described by kinematic hardening and a flow potential with an additive term controlling the nonlinear cyclic hardening. The model is basically described by five...... parameters: external and internal stiffness, a yield stress and a limiting ultimate stress, and finally a parameter controlling the gradual development of plastic deformation. Calibration against numerous experimental results indicates that typically larger plastic strains develop than predicted...

  16. Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.

    1995-12-31

    A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.

  17. On the effect of model parameters on forecast objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzban, Caren; Jones, Corinne; Li, Ning; Sandgathe, Scott

    2018-04-01

    Many physics-based numerical models produce a gridded, spatial field of forecasts, e.g., a temperature map. The field for some quantities generally consists of spatially coherent and disconnected objects. Such objects arise in many problems, including precipitation forecasts in atmospheric models, eddy currents in ocean models, and models of forest fires. Certain features of these objects (e.g., location, size, intensity, and shape) are generally of interest. Here, a methodology is developed for assessing the impact of model parameters on the features of forecast objects. The main ingredients of the methodology include the use of (1) Latin hypercube sampling for varying the values of the model parameters, (2) statistical clustering algorithms for identifying objects, (3) multivariate multiple regression for assessing the impact of multiple model parameters on the distribution (across the forecast domain) of object features, and (4) methods for reducing the number of hypothesis tests and controlling the resulting errors. The final output of the methodology is a series of box plots and confidence intervals that visually display the sensitivities. The methodology is demonstrated on precipitation forecasts from a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model.

  18. A Smoothing Algorithm for a New Two-Stage Stochastic Model of Supply Chain Based on Sample Average Approximation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Yang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We construct a new two-stage stochastic model of supply chain with multiple factories and distributors for perishable product. By introducing a second-order stochastic dominance (SSD constraint, we can describe the preference consistency of the risk taker while minimizing the expected cost of company. To solve this problem, we convert it into a one-stage stochastic model equivalently; then we use sample average approximation (SAA method to approximate the expected values of the underlying random functions. A smoothing approach is proposed with which we can get the global solution and avoid introducing new variables and constraints. Meanwhile, we investigate the convergence of an optimal value from solving the transformed model and show that, with probability approaching one at exponential rate, the optimal value converges to its counterpart as the sample size increases. Numerical results show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm and analysis.

  19. Parameter estimation in nonlinear models for pesticide degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richter, O.; Pestemer, W.; Bunte, D.; Diekkrueger, B.

    1991-01-01

    A wide class of environmental transfer models is formulated as ordinary or partial differential equations. With the availability of fast computers, the numerical solution of large systems became feasible. The main difficulty in performing a realistic and convincing simulation of the fate of a substance in the biosphere is not the implementation of numerical techniques but rather the incomplete data basis for parameter estimation. Parameter estimation is a synonym for statistical and numerical procedures to derive reasonable numerical values for model parameters from data. The classical method is the familiar linear regression technique which dates back to the 18th century. Because it is easy to handle, linear regression has long been established as a convenient tool for analysing relationships. However, the wide use of linear regression has led to an overemphasis of linear relationships. In nature, most relationships are nonlinear and linearization often gives a poor approximation of reality. Furthermore, pure regression models are not capable to map the dynamics of a process. Therefore, realistic models involve the evolution in time (and space). This leads in a natural way to the formulation of differential equations. To establish the link between data and dynamical models, numerical advanced parameter identification methods have been developed in recent years. This paper demonstrates the application of these techniques to estimation problems in the field of pesticide dynamics. (7 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.)

  20. Global parameter estimation for thermodynamic models of transcriptional regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suleimenov, Yerzhan; Ay, Ahmet; Samee, Md Abul Hassan; Dresch, Jacqueline M; Sinha, Saurabh; Arnosti, David N

    2013-07-15

    Deciphering the mechanisms involved in gene regulation holds the key to understanding the control of central biological processes, including human disease, population variation, and the evolution of morphological innovations. New experimental techniques including whole genome sequencing and transcriptome analysis have enabled comprehensive modeling approaches to study gene regulation. In many cases, it is useful to be able to assign biological significance to the inferred model parameters, but such interpretation should take into account features that affect these parameters, including model construction and sensitivity, the type of fitness calculation, and the effectiveness of parameter estimation. This last point is often neglected, as estimation methods are often selected for historical reasons or for computational ease. Here, we compare the performance of two parameter estimation techniques broadly representative of local and global approaches, namely, a quasi-Newton/Nelder-Mead simplex (QN/NMS) method and a covariance matrix adaptation-evolutionary strategy (CMA-ES) method. The estimation methods were applied to a set of thermodynamic models of gene transcription applied to regulatory elements active in the Drosophila embryo. Measuring overall fit, the global CMA-ES method performed significantly better than the local QN/NMS method on high quality data sets, but this difference was negligible on lower quality data sets with increased noise or on data sets simplified by stringent thresholding. Our results suggest that the choice of parameter estimation technique for evaluation of gene expression models depends both on quality of data, the nature of the models [again, remains to be established] and the aims of the modeling effort. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2006-06-05

    This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This

  2. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek

    2006-01-01

    This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This report is concerned primarily with the

  3. Point-by-point model description of average prompt neutron data as a function of total kinetic energy of fission fragments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tudora, A.

    2013-01-01

    The experimental data of average prompt neutron multiplicity as a function of total kinetic energy of fragments <ν>(TKE) exhibit, especially in the case of 252 Cf(SF), different slopes dTKE/dν and different behaviours at low TKE values. The Point-by-Point (PbP) model can describe these different behaviours. The higher slope dTKE/dν and the flattening of <ν> at low TKE exhibited by a part of experimental data sets is very well reproduced when the PbP multi-parametric matrix ν(A,TKE) is averaged over a double distribution Y(A,TKE). The lower slope and the almost linear behaviour over the entire TKE range exhibited by other data sets is well described when the same matrix ν(A,TKE) is averaged over a single distribution Y(A). In the case of average prompt neutron energy in SCM as a function of TKE, different dTKE/dε slopes are also obtained by averaging the same PbP matrix ε(A,TKE) over Y(A,TKE) and over Y(A). The results are exemplified for 3 fissioning systems benefiting of experimental data as a function of TKE: 252 Cf(SF), 235 U(n th ,f) and 239 Pu(n th ,f). In the case of 234 U(n,f) for the first time it was possible to calculate <ν>(TKE) and <ε>(TKE) at many incident energies by averaging the PbP multi-parametric matrices over the experimental Y(A,TKE) distributions recently measured at IRMM for 14 incident energies in the range 0.3- 5 MeV. The results revealed that the slope dTKE/dν does not vary with the incident energy and the flattening of <ν> at low TKE values is more pronounced at low incident energies. The average model parameters dependences on TKE resulted from the PbP treatment allow the use of the most probable fragmentation approach, having the great advantage to provide results at many TKE values in a very short computing time compared to PbP and Monte Carlo treatments. (author)

  4. Analysis of experimental data: The average shape of extreme wave forces on monopile foundations and the NewForce model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schløer, Signe; Bredmose, Henrik; Ghadirian, Amin

    2017-01-01

    Experiments with a stiff pile subjected to extreme wave forces typical of offshore wind farm storm conditions are considered. The exceedance probability curves of the nondimensional force peaks and crest heights are analysed. The average force time history normalised with their peak values are co...... to the average shapes. For more nonlinear wave shapes, higher order terms has to be considered in order for the NewForce model to be able to predict the expected shapes.......Experiments with a stiff pile subjected to extreme wave forces typical of offshore wind farm storm conditions are considered. The exceedance probability curves of the nondimensional force peaks and crest heights are analysed. The average force time history normalised with their peak values...... are compared across the sea states. It is found that the force shapes show a clear similarity when grouped after the values of the normalised peak force, F/(ρghR2), normalised depth h/(gT2p) and presented in a normalised time scale t/Ta. For the largest force events, slamming can be seen as a distinct ‘hat...

  5. Iterative integral parameter identification of a respiratory mechanics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schranz, Christoph; Docherty, Paul D; Chiew, Yeong Shiong; Möller, Knut; Chase, J Geoffrey

    2012-07-18

    Patient-specific respiratory mechanics models can support the evaluation of optimal lung protective ventilator settings during ventilation therapy. Clinical application requires that the individual's model parameter values must be identified with information available at the bedside. Multiple linear regression or gradient-based parameter identification methods are highly sensitive to noise and initial parameter estimates. Thus, they are difficult to apply at the bedside to support therapeutic decisions. An iterative integral parameter identification method is applied to a second order respiratory mechanics model. The method is compared to the commonly used regression methods and error-mapping approaches using simulated and clinical data. The clinical potential of the method was evaluated on data from 13 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) patients. The iterative integral method converged to error minima 350 times faster than the Simplex Search Method using simulation data sets and 50 times faster using clinical data sets. Established regression methods reported erroneous results due to sensitivity to noise. In contrast, the iterative integral method was effective independent of initial parameter estimations, and converged successfully in each case tested. These investigations reveal that the iterative integral method is beneficial with respect to computing time, operator independence and robustness, and thus applicable at the bedside for this clinical application.

  6. Iterative integral parameter identification of a respiratory mechanics model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schranz Christoph

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Patient-specific respiratory mechanics models can support the evaluation of optimal lung protective ventilator settings during ventilation therapy. Clinical application requires that the individual’s model parameter values must be identified with information available at the bedside. Multiple linear regression or gradient-based parameter identification methods are highly sensitive to noise and initial parameter estimates. Thus, they are difficult to apply at the bedside to support therapeutic decisions. Methods An iterative integral parameter identification method is applied to a second order respiratory mechanics model. The method is compared to the commonly used regression methods and error-mapping approaches using simulated and clinical data. The clinical potential of the method was evaluated on data from 13 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS patients. Results The iterative integral method converged to error minima 350 times faster than the Simplex Search Method using simulation data sets and 50 times faster using clinical data sets. Established regression methods reported erroneous results due to sensitivity to noise. In contrast, the iterative integral method was effective independent of initial parameter estimations, and converged successfully in each case tested. Conclusion These investigations reveal that the iterative integral method is beneficial with respect to computing time, operator independence and robustness, and thus applicable at the bedside for this clinical application.

  7. Evaluations of average level spacings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liou, H.I.

    1980-01-01

    The average level spacing for highly excited nuclei is a key parameter in cross section formulas based on statistical nuclear models, and also plays an important role in determining many physics quantities. Various methods to evaluate average level spacings are reviewed. Because of the finite experimental resolution, to detect a complete sequence of levels without mixing other parities is extremely difficult, if not totally impossible. Most methods derive the average level spacings by applying a fit, with different degrees of generality, to the truncated Porter-Thomas distribution for reduced neutron widths. A method that tests both distributions of level widths and positions is discussed extensivey with an example of 168 Er data. 19 figures, 2 tables

  8. MODELLING BIOPHYSICAL PARAMETERS OF MAIZE USING LANDSAT 8 TIME SERIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Dahms

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Open and free access to multi-frequent high-resolution data (e.g. Sentinel – 2 will fortify agricultural applications based on satellite data. The temporal and spatial resolution of these remote sensing datasets directly affects the applicability of remote sensing methods, for instance a robust retrieving of biophysical parameters over the entire growing season with very high geometric resolution. In this study we use machine learning methods to predict biophysical parameters, namely the fraction of absorbed photosynthetic radiation (FPAR, the leaf area index (LAI and the chlorophyll content, from high resolution remote sensing. 30 Landsat 8 OLI scenes were available in our study region in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Germany. In-situ data were weekly to bi-weekly collected on 18 maize plots throughout the summer season 2015. The study aims at an optimized prediction of biophysical parameters and the identification of the best explaining spectral bands and vegetation indices. For this purpose, we used the entire in-situ dataset from 24.03.2015 to 15.10.2015. Random forest and conditional inference forests were used because of their explicit strong exploratory and predictive character. Variable importance measures allowed for analysing the relation between the biophysical parameters with respect to the spectral response, and the performance of the two approaches over the plant stock evolvement. Classical random forest regression outreached the performance of conditional inference forests, in particular when modelling the biophysical parameters over the entire growing period. For example, modelling biophysical parameters of maize for the entire vegetation period using random forests yielded: FPAR: R² = 0.85; RMSE = 0.11; LAI: R² = 0.64; RMSE = 0.9 and chlorophyll content (SPAD: R² = 0.80; RMSE=4.9. Our results demonstrate the great potential in using machine-learning methods for the interpretation of long-term multi-frequent remote sensing

  9. Modelling Biophysical Parameters of Maize Using Landsat 8 Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahms, Thorsten; Seissiger, Sylvia; Conrad, Christopher; Borg, Erik

    2016-06-01

    Open and free access to multi-frequent high-resolution data (e.g. Sentinel - 2) will fortify agricultural applications based on satellite data. The temporal and spatial resolution of these remote sensing datasets directly affects the applicability of remote sensing methods, for instance a robust retrieving of biophysical parameters over the entire growing season with very high geometric resolution. In this study we use machine learning methods to predict biophysical parameters, namely the fraction of absorbed photosynthetic radiation (FPAR), the leaf area index (LAI) and the chlorophyll content, from high resolution remote sensing. 30 Landsat 8 OLI scenes were available in our study region in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Germany. In-situ data were weekly to bi-weekly collected on 18 maize plots throughout the summer season 2015. The study aims at an optimized prediction of biophysical parameters and the identification of the best explaining spectral bands and vegetation indices. For this purpose, we used the entire in-situ dataset from 24.03.2015 to 15.10.2015. Random forest and conditional inference forests were used because of their explicit strong exploratory and predictive character. Variable importance measures allowed for analysing the relation between the biophysical parameters with respect to the spectral response, and the performance of the two approaches over the plant stock evolvement. Classical random forest regression outreached the performance of conditional inference forests, in particular when modelling the biophysical parameters over the entire growing period. For example, modelling biophysical parameters of maize for the entire vegetation period using random forests yielded: FPAR: R² = 0.85; RMSE = 0.11; LAI: R² = 0.64; RMSE = 0.9 and chlorophyll content (SPAD): R² = 0.80; RMSE=4.9. Our results demonstrate the great potential in using machine-learning methods for the interpretation of long-term multi-frequent remote sensing datasets to model

  10. X-Parameter Based Modelling of Polar Modulated Power Amplifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Yelin; Nielsen, Troels Studsgaard; Sira, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    X-parameters are developed as an extension of S-parameters capable of modelling non-linear devices driven by large signals. They are suitable for devices having only radio frequency (RF) and DC ports. In a polar power amplifier (PA), phase and envelope of the input modulated signal are applied...... at separate ports and the envelope port is neither an RF nor a DC port. As a result, X-parameters may fail to characterise the effect of the envelope port excitation and consequently the polar PA. This study introduces a solution to the problem for a commercial polar PA. In this solution, the RF-phase path...... PA for simulations. The simulated error vector magnitude (EVM) and adjacent channel power ratio (ACPR) were compared with the measured data to validate the model. The maximum differences between the simulated and measured EVM and ACPR are less than 2% point and 3 dB, respectively....

  11. Identifiability and error minimization of receptor model parameters with PET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delforge, J.; Syrota, A.; Mazoyer, B.M.

    1989-01-01

    The identifiability problem and the general framework for experimental design optimization are presented. The methodology is applied to the problem of the receptor-ligand model parameter estimation with dynamic positron emission tomography data. The first attempts to identify the model parameters from data obtained with a single tracer injection led to disappointing numerical results. The possibility of improving parameter estimation using a new experimental design combining an injection of the labelled ligand and an injection of the cold ligand (displacement experiment) has been investigated. However, this second protocol led to two very different numerical solutions and it was necessary to demonstrate which solution was biologically valid. This has been possible by using a third protocol including both a displacement and a co-injection experiment. (authors). 16 refs.; 14 figs

  12. Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ying, Khor Chia; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2014-01-01

    The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ (j) of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ (j) , we assume that φ (j) depends on φ (j−m) , φ (j−m+1) ,…, φ (j−1) and the interest rate r j+n at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r j+n+1 of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r j+n of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r j+n+d at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters

  13. Model parameters estimation and sensitivity by genetic algorithms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marseguerra, Marzio; Zio, Enrico; Podofillini, Luca

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we illustrate the possibility of extracting qualitative information on the importance of the parameters of a model in the course of a Genetic Algorithms (GAs) optimization procedure for the estimation of such parameters. The Genetic Algorithms' search of the optimal solution is performed according to procedures that resemble those of natural selection and genetics: an initial population of alternative solutions evolves within the search space through the four fundamental operations of parent selection, crossover, replacement, and mutation. During the search, the algorithm examines a large amount of solution points which possibly carries relevant information on the underlying model characteristics. A possible utilization of this information amounts to create and update an archive with the set of best solutions found at each generation and then to analyze the evolution of the statistics of the archive along the successive generations. From this analysis one can retrieve information regarding the speed of convergence and stabilization of the different control (decision) variables of the optimization problem. In this work we analyze the evolution strategy followed by a GA in its search for the optimal solution with the aim of extracting information on the importance of the control (decision) variables of the optimization with respect to the sensitivity of the objective function. The study refers to a GA search for optimal estimates of the effective parameters in a lumped nuclear reactor model of literature. The supporting observation is that, as most optimization procedures do, the GA search evolves towards convergence in such a way to stabilize first the most important parameters of the model and later those which influence little the model outputs. In this sense, besides estimating efficiently the parameters values, the optimization approach also allows us to provide a qualitative ranking of their importance in contributing to the model output. The

  14. Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ying, Khor Chia [Faculty of Computing and Informatics, Multimedia University, Jalan Multimedia, 63100 Cyberjaya, Selangor (Malaysia); Hin, Pooi Ah [Sunway University Business School, No. 5, Jalan Universiti, Bandar Sunway, 47500 Subang Jaya, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2014-06-19

    The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ{sup (j)} of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ{sup (j)}, we assume that φ{sup (j)} depends on φ{sup (j−m)}, φ{sup (j−m+1)},…, φ{sup (j−1)} and the interest rate r{sub j+n} at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r{sub j+n+1} of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r{sub j+n} of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r{sub j+n+d} at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters.

  15. Heavy particle track structure parameters for biophysical modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watt, D.E.

    1994-01-01

    Averaged values of physical track structure parameters are important in radiobiology and radiological protection for the expression of damage mechanisms and for quantifying radiation effects. To provide a ready reference, tables of relevant quantities have been compiled for heavy charged particles in liquid water. The full tables will be published elsewhere but here illustrative examples are given of the trends for the most important quantities. In the tables, data are given for 74 types of heavy charged particle ranging from protons to uranium ions at specific energies between 0.1 keV/u and 1 GeV/u. Aggregate effects in liquid water are taken into account implicitly in the calculations. Results are presented for instantaneous particle energies and for averages over the charged particle equilibrium spectrum. The latter are of special relevance to radiation dosimetry. Quality parameters calculated are: β 2 ; z 2 /β 2 ; linear primary ionisation and the mean free path between ionisations; LET; track and dose-restricted LET with 100 eV cut-off; relative variances; delta-ray energies and ranges; ion energies and ranges and kerma factors. Here, the procedures used in the calculations are indicated. Representative results are shown in graphical form. The role of the physical track properties is discussed with regard to optimisation of the design of experiments intended to elucidate biological damage mechanisms in mammalian cells and their relevance to radiological protection. ((orig.))

  16. Mathematical models to predict rheological parameters of lateritic hydromixtures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Hernández-Ramírez

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The present work had as objective to establish mathematical models that allow the prognosis of the rheological parameters of the lateritic pulp at concentrations of solids from 35% to 48%, temperature of the preheated hydromixture superior to 82 ° C and number of mineral between 3 and 16. Four samples of lateritic pulp were used in the study at different process locations. The results allowed defining that the plastic properties of the lateritic pulp in the conditions of this study conform to the Herschel-Bulkley model for real plastics. In addition, they show that for current operating conditions, even for new situations, UPD mathematical models have a greater ability to predict rheological parameters than least squares mathematical models.

  17. Revised Parameters for the AMOEBA Polarizable Atomic Multipole Water Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pande, Vijay S.; Head-Gordon, Teresa; Ponder, Jay W.

    2016-01-01

    A set of improved parameters for the AMOEBA polarizable atomic multipole water model is developed. The protocol uses an automated procedure, ForceBalance, to adjust model parameters to enforce agreement with ab initio-derived results for water clusters and experimentally obtained data for a variety of liquid phase properties across a broad temperature range. The values reported here for the new AMOEBA14 water model represent a substantial improvement over the previous AMOEBA03 model. The new AMOEBA14 water model accurately predicts the temperature of maximum density and qualitatively matches the experimental density curve across temperatures ranging from 249 K to 373 K. Excellent agreement is observed for the AMOEBA14 model in comparison to a variety of experimental properties as a function of temperature, including the 2nd virial coefficient, enthalpy of vaporization, isothermal compressibility, thermal expansion coefficient and dielectric constant. The viscosity, self-diffusion constant and surface tension are also well reproduced. In comparison to high-level ab initio results for clusters of 2 to 20 water molecules, the AMOEBA14 model yields results similar to the AMOEBA03 and the direct polarization iAMOEBA models. With advances in computing power, calibration data, and optimization techniques, we recommend the use of the AMOEBA14 water model for future studies employing a polarizable water model. PMID:25683601

  18. Predicting dissolution patterns in variable aperture fractures: 1. Development and evaluation of an enhanced depth-averaged computational model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Detwiler, R L; Rajaram, H

    2006-04-21

    Water-rock interactions within variable-aperture fractures can lead to dissolution of fracture surfaces and local alteration of fracture apertures, potentially transforming the transport properties of the fracture over time. Because fractures often provide dominant pathways for subsurface flow and transport, developing models that effectively quantify the role of dissolution on changing transport properties over a range of scales is critical to understanding potential impacts of natural and anthropogenic processes. Dissolution of fracture surfaces is controlled by surface-reaction kinetics and transport of reactants and products to and from the fracture surfaces. We present development and evaluation of a depth-averaged model of fracture flow and reactive transport that explicitly calculates local dissolution-induced alterations in fracture apertures. The model incorporates an effective mass transfer relationship that implicitly represents the transition from reaction-limited dissolution to transport-limited dissolution. We evaluate the model through direct comparison to previously reported physical experiments in transparent analog fractures fabricated by mating an inert, transparent rough surface with a smooth single crystal of potassium dihydrogen phosphate (KDP), which allowed direct measurement of fracture aperture during dissolution experiments using well-established light transmission techniques [Detwiler, et al., 2003]. Comparison of experiments and simulations at different flow rates demonstrate the relative impact of the dimensionless Peclet and Damkohler numbers on fracture dissolution and the ability of the computational model to simulate dissolution. Despite some discrepancies in the small-scale details of dissolution patterns, the simulations predict the evolution of large-scale features quite well for the different experimental conditions. This suggests that our depth-averaged approach to simulating fracture dissolution provides a useful approach for

  19. Comparisons of criteria in the assessment model parameter optimizations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Xinhe; Zhang Yongxing

    1993-01-01

    Three criteria (chi square, relative chi square and correlation coefficient) used in model parameter optimization (MPO) process that aims at significant reduction of prediction uncertainties were discussed and compared to each other with the aid of a well-controlled tracer experiment

  20. Revised models and genetic parameter estimates for production and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Genetic parameters for production and reproduction traits in the Elsenburg Dormer sheep stud were estimated using records of 11743 lambs born between 1943 and 2002. An animal model with direct and maternal additive, maternal permanent and temporary environmental effects was fitted for traits considered traits of the ...

  1. Determination of parameters in elasto-plastic models of aluminium.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meuwissen, M.H.H.; Oomens, C.W.J.; Baaijens, F.P.T.; Petterson, R.; Janssen, J.D.; Sol, H.; Oomens, C.W.J.

    1997-01-01

    A mixed numerical-experimental method is used to determine parameters in elasto-plastic constitutive models. An aluminium plate of non-standard geometry is mounted in a uniaxial tensile testing machine at which some adjustments are made to carry out shear tests. The sample is loaded and the total

  2. Parameter Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn

    2002-01-01

    We introduce a maximum entropy approach to parameter estimation for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The approach applies information theory to estimating a system of non-linear simultaneous equations. It has a number of advantages. First, it imposes all general equilibrium constraints...

  3. Parameter Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn

    We introduce a maximum entropy approach to parameter estimation for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The approach applies information theory to estimating a system of nonlinear simultaneous equations. It has a number of advantages. First, it imposes all general equilibrium constraints...

  4. Do Lumped-Parameter Models Provide the Correct Geometrical Damping?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    response during excitation and the geometrical damping related to free vibrations of a hexagonal footing. The optimal order of a lumped-parameter model is determined for each degree of freedom, i.e. horizontal and vertical translation as well as torsion and rocking. In particular, the necessity of coupling...... between horizontal sliding and rocking is discussed....

  5. Key processes and input parameters for environmental tritium models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunnenberg, C.; Taschner, M.; Ogram, G.L.

    1994-01-01

    The primary objective of the work reported here is to define key processes and input parameters for mathematical models of environmental tritium behaviour adequate for use in safety analysis and licensing of fusion devices like NET and associated tritium handling facilities. (author). 45 refs., 3 figs

  6. Key processes and input parameters for environmental tritium models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bunnenberg, C; Taschner, M [Niedersaechsisches Inst. fuer Radiooekologie, Hannover (Germany); Ogram, G L [Ontario Hydro, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    1994-12-31

    The primary objective of the work reported here is to define key processes and input parameters for mathematical models of environmental tritium behaviour adequate for use in safety analysis and licensing of fusion devices like NET and associated tritium handling facilities. (author). 45 refs., 3 figs.

  7. Towards Improving the Efficiency of Bayesian Model Averaging Analysis for Flow in Porous Media via the Probabilistic Collocation Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Xue

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The characterization of flow in subsurface porous media is associated with high uncertainty. To better quantify the uncertainty of groundwater systems, it is necessary to consider the model uncertainty. Multi-model uncertainty analysis can be performed in the Bayesian model averaging (BMA framework. However, the BMA analysis via Monte Carlo method is time consuming because it requires many forward model evaluations. A computationally efficient BMA analysis framework is proposed by using the probabilistic collocation method to construct a response surface model, where the log hydraulic conductivity field and hydraulic head are expanded into polynomials through Karhunen–Loeve and polynomial chaos methods. A synthetic test is designed to validate the proposed response surface analysis method. The results show that the posterior model weight and the key statistics in BMA framework can be accurately estimated. The relative errors of mean and total variance in the BMA analysis results are just approximately 0.013% and 1.18%, but the proposed method can be 16 times more computationally efficient than the traditional BMA method.

  8. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-09-24

    This analysis is one of the nine reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003a) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents a set of input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. This report, ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003b). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available at that time. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this analysis report. This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading, which is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Measurements of mass loading are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air surrounding crops and concentrations in air

  9. Integrating microbial diversity in soil carbon dynamic models parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis, Benjamin; Menasseri-Aubry, Safya; Leterme, Philippe; Maron, Pierre-Alain; Viaud, Valérie

    2015-04-01

    Faced with the numerous concerns about soil carbon dynamic, a large quantity of carbon dynamic models has been developed during the last century. These models are mainly in the form of deterministic compartment models with carbon fluxes between compartments represented by ordinary differential equations. Nowadays, lots of them consider the microbial biomass as a compartment of the soil organic matter (carbon quantity). But the amount of microbial carbon is rarely used in the differential equations of the models as a limiting factor. Additionally, microbial diversity and community composition are mostly missing, although last advances in soil microbial analytical methods during the two past decades have shown that these characteristics play also a significant role in soil carbon dynamic. As soil microorganisms are essential drivers of soil carbon dynamic, the question about explicitly integrating their role have become a key issue in soil carbon dynamic models development. Some interesting attempts can be found and are dominated by the incorporation of several compartments of different groups of microbial biomass in terms of functional traits and/or biogeochemical compositions to integrate microbial diversity. However, these models are basically heuristic models in the sense that they are used to test hypotheses through simulations. They have rarely been confronted to real data and thus cannot be used to predict realistic situations. The objective of this work was to empirically integrate microbial diversity in a simple model of carbon dynamic through statistical modelling of the model parameters. This work is based on available experimental results coming from a French National Research Agency program called DIMIMOS. Briefly, 13C-labelled wheat residue has been incorporated into soils with different pedological characteristics and land use history. Then, the soils have been incubated during 104 days and labelled and non-labelled CO2 fluxes have been measured at ten

  10. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-01-01

    This analysis is one of the nine reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003a) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents a set of input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. This report, ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003b). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available at that time. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this analysis report. This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading, which is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Measurements of mass loading are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air surrounding crops and concentrations in air inhaled by a receptor. Concentrations in air to which the

  11. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-14

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters.

  12. Evaluation of some infiltration models and hydraulic parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haghighi, F.; Gorji, M.; Shorafa, M.; Sarmadian, F.; Mohammadi, M. H.

    2010-01-01

    The evaluation of infiltration characteristics and some parameters of infiltration models such as sorptivity and final steady infiltration rate in soils are important in agriculture. The aim of this study was to evaluate some of the most common models used to estimate final soil infiltration rate. The equality of final infiltration rate with saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) was also tested. Moreover, values of the estimated sorptivity from the Philips model were compared to estimates by selected pedotransfer functions (PTFs). The infiltration experiments used the doublering method on soils with two different land uses in the Taleghan watershed of Tehran province, Iran, from September to October, 2007. The infiltration models of Kostiakov-Lewis, Philip two-term and Horton were fitted to observed infiltration data. Some parameters of the models and the coefficient of determination goodness of fit were estimated using MATLAB software. The results showed that, based on comparing measured and model-estimated infiltration rate using root mean squared error (RMSE), Hortons model gave the best prediction of final infiltration rate in the experimental area. Laboratory measured Ks values gave significant differences and higher values than estimated final infiltration rates from the selected models. The estimated final infiltration rate was not equal to laboratory measured Ks values in the study area. Moreover, the estimated sorptivity factor by Philips model was significantly different to those estimated by selected PTFs. It is suggested that the applicability of PTFs is limited to specific, similar conditions. (Author) 37 refs.

  13. Neural networks prediction and fault diagnosis applied to stationary and non stationary ARMA (Autoregressive moving average) modeled time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marseguerra, M.; Minoggio, S.; Rossi, A.; Zio, E.

    1992-01-01

    The correlated noise affecting many industrial plants under stationary or cyclo-stationary conditions - nuclear reactors included -has been successfully modeled by autoregressive moving average (ARMA) due to the versatility of this technique. The relatively recent neural network methods have similar features and much effort is being devoted to exploring their usefulness in forecasting and control. Identifying a signal by means of an ARMA model gives rise to the problem of selecting its correct order. Similar difficulties must be faced when applying neural network methods and, specifically, particular care must be given to the setting up of the appropriate network topology, the data normalization procedure and the learning code. In the present paper the capability of some neural networks of learning ARMA and seasonal ARMA processes is investigated. The results of the tested cases look promising since they indicate that the neural networks learn the underlying process with relative ease so that their forecasting capability may represent a convenient fault diagnosis tool. (Author)

  14. Electro-optical parameters of bond polarizability model for aluminosilicates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smirnov, Konstantin S; Bougeard, Daniel; Tandon, Poonam

    2006-04-06

    Electro-optical parameters (EOPs) of bond polarizability model (BPM) for aluminosilicate structures were derived from quantum-chemical DFT calculations of molecular models. The tensor of molecular polarizability and the derivatives of the tensor with respect to the bond length are well reproduced with the BPM, and the EOPs obtained are in a fair agreement with available experimental data. The parameters derived were found to be transferable to larger molecules. This finding suggests that the procedure used can be applied to systems with partially ionic chemical bonds. The transferability of the parameters to periodic systems was tested in molecular dynamics simulation of the polarized Raman spectra of alpha-quartz. It appeared that the molecular Si-O bond EOPs failed to reproduce the intensity of peaks in the spectra. This limitation is due to large values of the longitudinal components of the bond polarizability and its derivative found in the molecular calculations as compared to those obtained from periodic DFT calculations of crystalline silica polymorphs by Umari et al. (Phys. Rev. B 2001, 63, 094305). It is supposed that the electric field of the solid is responsible for the difference of the parameters. Nevertheless, the EOPs obtained can be used as an initial set of parameters for calculations of polarizability related characteristics of relevant systems in the framework of BPM.

  15. Estimating model parameters in nonautonomous chaotic systems using synchronization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Xiaoli; Xu, Wei; Sun, Zhongkui

    2007-01-01

    In this Letter, a technique is addressed for estimating unknown model parameters of multivariate, in particular, nonautonomous chaotic systems from time series of state variables. This technique uses an adaptive strategy for tracking unknown parameters in addition to a linear feedback coupling for synchronizing systems, and then some general conditions, by means of the periodic version of the LaSalle invariance principle for differential equations, are analytically derived to ensure precise evaluation of unknown parameters and identical synchronization between the concerned experimental system and its corresponding receiver one. Exemplifies are presented by employing a parametrically excited 4D new oscillator and an additionally excited Ueda oscillator. The results of computer simulations reveal that the technique not only can quickly track the desired parameter values but also can rapidly respond to changes in operating parameters. In addition, the technique can be favorably robust against the effect of noise when the experimental system is corrupted by bounded disturbance and the normalized absolute error of parameter estimation grows almost linearly with the cutoff value of noise strength in simulation

  16. An ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach for discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo; Yang, Hong; Sweetapple, Chris

    2018-03-01

    Global precipitation products are very important datasets in flow simulations, especially in poorly gauged regions. Uncertainties resulting from precipitation products, hydrological models and their combinations vary with time and data magnitude, and undermine their application to flow simulations. However, previous studies have not quantified these uncertainties individually and explicitly. This study developed an ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach (e-Bay) for deterministic discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models. In this approach, the joint probability of precipitation products and hydrological models being correct is quantified based on uncertainties in maximum and mean estimation, posterior probability is quantified as functions of the magnitude and timing of discharges, and the law of total probability is implemented to calculate expected discharges. Six global fine-resolution precipitation products and two hydrological models of different complexities are included in an illustrative application. e-Bay can effectively quantify uncertainties and therefore generate better deterministic discharges than traditional approaches (weighted average methods with equal and varying weights and maximum likelihood approach). The mean Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values of e-Bay are up to 0.97 and 0.85 in training and validation periods respectively, which are at least 0.06 and 0.13 higher than traditional approaches. In addition, with increased training data, assessment criteria values of e-Bay show smaller fluctuations than traditional approaches and its performance becomes outstanding. The proposed e-Bay approach bridges the gap between global precipitation products and their pragmatic applications to discharge simulations, and is beneficial to water resources management in ungauged or poorly gauged regions across the world.

  17. Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging: a method for the application of survival analysis to high-dimensional microarray data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raftery Adrian E

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Microarray technology is increasingly used to identify potential biomarkers for cancer prognostics and diagnostics. Previously, we have developed the iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA algorithm for use in classification. Here, we extend the iterative BMA algorithm for application to survival analysis on high-dimensional microarray data. The main goal in applying survival analysis to microarray data is to determine a highly predictive model of patients' time to event (such as death, relapse, or metastasis using a small number of selected genes. Our multivariate procedure combines the effectiveness of multiple contending models by calculating the weighted average of their posterior probability distributions. Our results demonstrate that our iterative BMA algorithm for survival analysis achieves high prediction accuracy while consistently selecting a small and cost-effective number of predictor genes. Results We applied the iterative BMA algorithm to two cancer datasets: breast cancer and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL data. On the breast cancer data, the algorithm selected a total of 15 predictor genes across 84 contending models from the training data. The maximum likelihood estimates of the selected genes and the posterior probabilities of the selected models from the training data were used to divide patients in the test (or validation dataset into high- and low-risk categories. Using the genes and models determined from the training data, we assigned patients from the test data into highly distinct risk groups (as indicated by a p-value of 7.26e-05 from the log-rank test. Moreover, we achieved comparable results using only the 5 top selected genes with 100% posterior probabilities. On the DLBCL data, our iterative BMA procedure selected a total of 25 genes across 3 contending models from the training data. Once again, we assigned the patients in the validation set to significantly distinct risk groups (p

  18. Long-Term Prediction of Emergency Department Revenue and Visitor Volume Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chieh-Fan Chen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed meteorological, clinical and economic factors in terms of their effects on monthly ED revenue and visitor volume. Monthly data from January 1, 2005 to September 30, 2009 were analyzed. Spearman correlation and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify the correlation between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model was used to quantify the relationship between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. The accuracies were evaluated by comparing model forecasts to actual values with mean absolute percentage of error. Sensitivity of prediction errors to model training time was also evaluated. The ARIMA models indicated that mean maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, non-trauma, and trauma visits may correlate positively with ED revenue, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with ED revenue. Moreover, mean minimum temperature and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature, relative humidity and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with non-trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature and relative humidity may correlate positively with pediatric visitor volume, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with pediatric visitor volume. The model also performed well in forecasting revenue and visitor volume.

  19. Parametric Study of Flow Control Over a Hump Model Using an Unsteady Reynolds- Averaged Navier-Stokes Code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumsey, Christopher L.; Greenblatt, David

    2007-01-01

    This is an expanded version of a limited-length paper that appeared at the 5th International Symposium on Turbulence and Shear Flow Phenomena by the same authors. A computational study was performed for steady and oscillatory flow control over a hump model with flow separation to assess how well the steady and unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations predict trends due to Reynolds number, control magnitude, and control frequency. As demonstrated in earlier studies, the hump model case is useful because it clearly demonstrates a failing in all known turbulence models: they under-predict the turbulent shear stress in the separated region and consequently reattachment occurs too far downstream. In spite of this known failing, three different turbulence models were employed to determine if trends can be captured even though absolute levels are not. Overall the three turbulence models showed very similar trends as experiment for steady suction, but only agreed qualitatively with some of the trends for oscillatory control.

  20. Mass balance model parameter transferability on a tropical glacier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurgiser, Wolfgang; Mölg, Thomas; Nicholson, Lindsey; Kaser, Georg

    2013-04-01

    The mass balance and melt water production of glaciers is of particular interest in the Peruvian Andes where glacier melt water has markedly increased water supply during the pronounced dry seasons in recent decades. However, the melt water contribution from glaciers is projected to decrease with appreciable negative impacts on the local society within the coming decades. Understanding mass balance processes on tropical glaciers is a prerequisite for modeling present and future glacier runoff. As a first step towards this aim we applied a process-based surface mass balance model in order to calculate observed ablation at two stakes in the ablation zone of Shallap Glacier (4800 m a.s.l., 9°S) in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Under the tropical climate, the snow line migrates very frequently across most of the ablation zone all year round causing large temporal and spatial variations of glacier surface conditions and related ablation. Consequently, pronounced differences between the two chosen stakes and the two years were observed. Hourly records of temperature, humidity, wind speed, short wave incoming radiation, and precipitation are available from an automatic weather station (AWS) on the moraine near the glacier for the hydrological years 2006/07 and 2007/08 while stake readings are available at intervals of between 14 to 64 days. To optimize model parameters, we used 1000 model simulations in which the most sensitive model parameters were varied randomly within their physically meaningful ranges. The modeled surface height change was evaluated against the two stake locations in the lower ablation zone (SH11, 4760m) and in the upper ablation zone (SH22, 4816m), respectively. The optimal parameter set for each point achieved good model skill but if we transfer the best parameter combination from one stake site to the other stake site model errors increases significantly. The same happens if we optimize the model parameters for each year individually and transfer

  1. distributed parameter model of spiral-wound sepralator for treatment of uranyl nitrate effluents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Bialy, S.H; Elsherbiny, A.E.

    2004-01-01

    in this paper, mathematical formulation of spiral-wound sepralator was derived and applied for the treatment of effluent stream which is produced during nuclear fuel processing stage. the concentration of the stream has a value up to 200 ppm . cross-flow characteristic of both feed and permeate streams was taken into account and their mutual effects on the values of system variables were investigated. of course, such a flow pattern leads to a heterogeneous system which leads-in turn-to six partial differential equations, beside a set of algebraic equations. those were solved numerically and the results were used to estimate the average values of both permeate flux and percent solute rejection. then, these were compared with both experimental data in addition to the results of lumped parameter model. the study showed that distributed parameter model gives better results than lumped parameter one compared with experimental data

  2. Development of a stacked ensemble model for forecasting and analyzing daily average PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Binxu; Chen, Jianguo

    2018-04-18

    A stacked ensemble model is developed for forecasting and analyzing the daily average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in Beijing, China. Special feature extraction procedures, including those of simplification, polynomial, transformation and combination, are conducted before modeling to identify potentially significant features based on an exploratory data analysis. Stability feature selection and tree-based feature selection methods are applied to select important variables and evaluate the degrees of feature importance. Single models including LASSO, Adaboost, XGBoost and multi-layer perceptron optimized by the genetic algorithm (GA-MLP) are established in the level 0 space and are then integrated by support vector regression (SVR) in the level 1 space via stacked generalization. A feature importance analysis reveals that nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations measured from the city of Zhangjiakou are taken as the most important elements of pollution factors for forecasting PM 2.5 concentrations. Local extreme wind speeds and maximal wind speeds are considered to extend the most effects of meteorological factors to the cross-regional transportation of contaminants. Pollutants found in the cities of Zhangjiakou and Chengde have a stronger impact on air quality in Beijing than other surrounding factors. Our model evaluation shows that the ensemble model generally performs better than a single nonlinear forecasting model when applied to new data with a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 0.90 and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 23.69μg/m 3 . For single pollutant grade recognition, the proposed model performs better when applied to days characterized by good air quality than when applied to days registering high levels of pollution. The overall classification accuracy level is 73.93%, with most misclassifications made among adjacent categories. The results demonstrate the interpretability and generalizability of

  3. Constraining statistical-model parameters using fusion and spallation reactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charity Robert J.

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The de-excitation of compound nuclei has been successfully described for several decades by means of statistical models. However, such models involve a large number of free parameters and ingredients that are often underconstrained by experimental data. We show how the degeneracy of the model ingredients can be partially lifted by studying different entrance channels for de-excitation, which populate different regions of the parameter space of the compound nucleus. Fusion reactions, in particular, play an important role in this strategy because they fix three out of four of the compound-nucleus parameters (mass, charge and total excitation energy. The present work focuses on fission and intermediate-mass-fragment emission cross sections. We prove how equivalent parameter sets for fusion-fission reactions can be resolved using another entrance channel, namely spallation reactions. Intermediate-mass-fragment emission can be constrained in a similar way. An interpretation of the best-fit IMF barriers in terms of the Wigner energies of the nascent fragments is discussed.

  4. Investigation of RADTRAN Stop Model input parameters for truck stops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griego, N.R.; Smith, J.D.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1996-01-01

    RADTRAN is a computer code for estimating the risks and consequences as transport of radioactive materials (RAM). RADTRAN was developed and is maintained by Sandia National Laboratories for the US Department of Energy (DOE). For incident-free transportation, the dose to persons exposed while the shipment is stopped is frequently a major percentage of the overall dose. This dose is referred to as Stop Dose and is calculated by the Stop Model. Because stop dose is a significant portion of the overall dose associated with RAM transport, the values used as input for the Stop Model are important. Therefore, an investigation of typical values for RADTRAN Stop Parameters for truck stops was performed. The resulting data from these investigations were analyzed to provide mean values, standard deviations, and histograms. Hence, the mean values can be used when an analyst does not have a basis for selecting other input values for the Stop Model. In addition, the histograms and their characteristics can be used to guide statistical sampling techniques to measure sensitivity of the RADTRAN calculated Stop Dose to the uncertainties in the stop model input parameters. This paper discusses the details and presents the results of the investigation of stop model input parameters at truck stops

  5. Updated climatological model predictions of ionospheric and HF propagation parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reilly, M.H.; Rhoads, F.J.; Goodman, J.M.; Singh, M.

    1991-01-01

    The prediction performances of several climatological models, including the ionospheric conductivity and electron density model, RADAR C, and Ionospheric Communications Analysis and Predictions Program, are evaluated for different regions and sunspot number inputs. Particular attention is given to the near-real-time (NRT) predictions associated with single-station updates. It is shown that a dramatic improvement can be obtained by using single-station ionospheric data to update the driving parameters for an ionospheric model for NRT predictions of f(0)F2 and other ionospheric and HF circuit parameters. For middle latitudes, the improvement extends out thousands of kilometers from the update point to points of comparable corrected geomagnetic latitude. 10 refs

  6. Statistical approach for uncertainty quantification of experimental modal model parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luczak, M.; Peeters, B.; Kahsin, M.

    2014-01-01

    Composite materials are widely used in manufacture of aerospace and wind energy structural components. These load carrying structures are subjected to dynamic time-varying loading conditions. Robust structural dynamics identification procedure impose tight constraints on the quality of modal models...... represent different complexity levels ranging from coupon, through sub-component up to fully assembled aerospace and wind energy structural components made of composite materials. The proposed method is demonstrated on two application cases of a small and large wind turbine blade........ This paper aims at a systematic approach for uncertainty quantification of the parameters of the modal models estimated from experimentally obtained data. Statistical analysis of modal parameters is implemented to derive an assessment of the entire modal model uncertainty measure. Investigated structures...

  7. Influential input parameters for reflood model of MARS code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Deog Yeon; Bang, Young Seok [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-10-15

    Best Estimate (BE) calculation has been more broadly used in nuclear industries and regulations to reduce the significant conservatism for evaluating Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). Reflood model has been identified as one of the problems in BE calculation. The objective of the Post BEMUSE Reflood Model Input Uncertainty Methods (PREMIUM) program of OECD/NEA is to make progress the issue of the quantification of the uncertainty of the physical models in system thermal hydraulic codes, by considering an experimental result especially for reflood. It is important to establish a methodology to identify and select the parameters influential to the response of reflood phenomena following Large Break LOCA. For this aspect, a reference calculation and sensitivity analysis to select the dominant influential parameters for FEBA experiment are performed.

  8. Four-parameter analytical local model potential for atoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fei, Yu; Jiu-Xun, Sun; Rong-Gang, Tian; Wei, Yang

    2009-01-01

    Analytical local model potential for modeling the interaction in an atom reduces the computational effort in electronic structure calculations significantly. A new four-parameter analytical local model potential is proposed for atoms Li through Lr, and the values of four parameters are shell-independent and obtained by fitting the results of X a method. At the same time, the energy eigenvalues, the radial wave functions and the total energies of electrons are obtained by solving the radial Schrödinger equation with a new form of potential function by Numerov's numerical method. The results show that our new form of potential function is suitable for high, medium and low Z atoms. A comparison among the new potential function and other analytical potential functions shows the greater flexibility and greater accuracy of the present new potential function. (atomic and molecular physics)

  9. Numerical Study of Natural Gas/Diesel Reactivity Controlled Compression Ignition Combustion with Large Eddy Simulation and Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir-Hasan Kakaee

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In the current study, a comparative study is performed using Large Eddy Simulation (LES and Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS turbulence models on a natural gas/diesel Reactivity Controlled Compression Ignition (RCCI engine. The numerical results are validated against the available research work in the literature. The RNG (Re-Normalization Group k − ε and dynamic structure models are employed to model turbulent flow for RANS and LES simulations, respectively. Parameters like the premixed natural gas mass fraction, the second start of injection timing (SOI2 of diesel and the engine speed are studied to compare performance of RANS and LES models on combustion and pollutant emissions prediction. The results obtained showed that the LES and RANS model give almost similar predictions of cylinder pressure and heat release rate at lower natural gas mass fractions and late SOI2 timings. However, the LES showed improved capability to predict the natural gas auto-ignition and pollutant emissions prediction compared to RANS model especially at higher natural gas mass fractions.

  10. Application of parameters space analysis tools for empirical model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paloma del Barrio, E. [LEPT-ENSAM UMR 8508, Talence (France); Guyon, G. [Electricite de France, Moret-sur-Loing (France)

    2004-01-01

    A new methodology for empirical model validation has been proposed in the framework of the Task 22 (Building Energy Analysis Tools) of the International Energy Agency. It involves two main steps: checking model validity and diagnosis. Both steps, as well as the underlying methods, have been presented in the first part of the paper. In this part, they are applied for testing modelling hypothesis in the framework of the thermal analysis of an actual building. Sensitivity analysis tools have been first used to identify the parts of the model that can be really tested on the available data. A preliminary diagnosis is then supplied by principal components analysis. Useful information for model behaviour improvement has been finally obtained by optimisation techniques. This example of application shows how model parameters space analysis is a powerful tool for empirical validation. In particular, diagnosis possibilities are largely increased in comparison with residuals analysis techniques. (author)

  11. An upscaled two-equation model of transport in porous media through unsteady-state closure of volume averaged formulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaynikov, S.; Porta, G.; Riva, M.; Guadagnini, A.

    2012-04-01

    We focus on a theoretical analysis of nonreactive solute transport in porous media through the volume averaging technique. Darcy-scale transport models based on continuum formulations typically include large scale dispersive processes which are embedded in a pore-scale advection diffusion equation through a Fickian analogy. This formulation has been extensively questioned in the literature due to its inability to depict observed solute breakthrough curves in diverse settings, ranging from the laboratory to the field scales. The heterogeneity of the pore-scale velocity field is one of the key sources of uncertainties giving rise to anomalous (non-Fickian) dispersion in macro-scale porous systems. Some of the models which are employed to interpret observed non-Fickian solute behavior make use of a continuum formulation of the porous system which assumes a two-region description and includes a bimodal velocity distribution. A first class of these models comprises the so-called ''mobile-immobile'' conceptualization, where convective and dispersive transport mechanisms are considered to dominate within a high velocity region (mobile zone), while convective effects are neglected in a low velocity region (immobile zone). The mass exchange between these two regions is assumed to be controlled by a diffusive process and is macroscopically described by a first-order kinetic. An extension of these ideas is the two equation ''mobile-mobile'' model, where both transport mechanisms are taken into account in each region and a first-order mass exchange between regions is employed. Here, we provide an analytical derivation of two region "mobile-mobile" meso-scale models through a rigorous upscaling of the pore-scale advection diffusion equation. Among the available upscaling methodologies, we employ the Volume Averaging technique. In this approach, the heterogeneous porous medium is supposed to be pseudo-periodic, and can be represented through a (spatially) periodic unit cell

  12. Test models for improving filtering with model errors through stochastic parameter estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gershgorin, B.; Harlim, J.; Majda, A.J.

    2010-01-01

    The filtering skill for turbulent signals from nature is often limited by model errors created by utilizing an imperfect model for filtering. Updating the parameters in the imperfect model through stochastic parameter estimation is one way to increase filtering skill and model performance. Here a suite of stringent test models for filtering with stochastic parameter estimation is developed based on the Stochastic Parameterization Extended Kalman Filter (SPEKF). These new SPEKF-algorithms systematically correct both multiplicative and additive biases and involve exact formulas for propagating the mean and covariance including the parameters in the test model. A comprehensive study is presented of robust parameter regimes for increasing filtering skill through stochastic parameter estimation for turbulent signals as the observation time and observation noise are varied and even when the forcing is incorrectly specified. The results here provide useful guidelines for filtering turbulent signals in more complex systems with significant model errors.

  13. Autoregressive-moving-average hidden Markov model for vision-based fall prediction-An application for walker robot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghvaei, Sajjad; Jahanandish, Mohammad Hasan; Kosuge, Kazuhiro

    2017-01-01

    Population aging of the societies requires providing the elderly with safe and dependable assistive technologies in daily life activities. Improving the fall detection algorithms can play a major role in achieving this goal. This article proposes a real-time fall prediction algorithm based on the acquired visual data of a user with walking assistive system from a depth sensor. In the lack of a coupled dynamic model of the human and the assistive walker a hybrid "system identification-machine learning" approach is used. An autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) model is fitted on the time-series walking data to forecast the upcoming states, and a hidden Markov model (HMM) based classifier is built on the top of the ARMA model to predict falling in the upcoming time frames. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated through experiments with four subjects including an experienced physiotherapist while using a walker robot in five different falling scenarios; namely, fall forward, fall down, fall back, fall left, and fall right. The algorithm successfully predicts the fall with a rate of 84.72%.

  14. MOTION ARTIFACT REDUCTION IN FUNCTIONAL NEAR INFRARED SPECTROSCOPY SIGNALS BY AUTOREGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE MODELING BASED KALMAN FILTERING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MEHDI AMIAN

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Functional near infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS is a technique that is used for noninvasive measurement of the oxyhemoglobin (HbO2 and deoxyhemoglobin (HHb concentrations in the brain tissue. Since the ratio of the concentration of these two agents is correlated with the neuronal activity, fNIRS can be used for the monitoring and quantifying the cortical activity. The portability of fNIRS makes it a good candidate for studies involving subject's movement. The fNIRS measurements, however, are sensitive to artifacts generated by subject's head motion. This makes fNIRS signals less effective in such applications. In this paper, the autoregressive moving average (ARMA modeling of the fNIRS signal is proposed for state-space representation of the signal which is then fed to the Kalman filter for estimating the motionless signal from motion corrupted signal. Results are compared to the autoregressive model (AR based approach, which has been done previously, and show that the ARMA models outperform AR models. We attribute it to the richer structure, containing more terms indeed, of ARMA than AR. We show that the signal to noise ratio (SNR is about 2 dB higher for ARMA based method.

  15. Model parameter learning using Kullback-Leibler divergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chungwei; Marks, Tim K.; Pajovic, Milutin; Watanabe, Shinji; Tung, Chih-kuan

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we address the following problem: For a given set of spin configurations whose probability distribution is of the Boltzmann type, how do we determine the model coupling parameters? We demonstrate that directly minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence is an efficient method. We test this method against the Ising and XY models on the one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) lattices, and provide two estimators to quantify the model quality. We apply this method to two types of problems. First, we apply it to the real-space renormalization group (RG). We find that the obtained RG flow is sufficiently good for determining the phase boundary (within 1% of the exact result) and the critical point, but not accurate enough for critical exponents. The proposed method provides a simple way to numerically estimate amplitudes of the interactions typically truncated in the real-space RG procedure. Second, we apply this method to the dynamical system composed of self-propelled particles, where we extract the parameter of a statistical model (a generalized XY model) from a dynamical system described by the Viscek model. We are able to obtain reasonable coupling values corresponding to different noise strengths of the Viscek model. Our method is thus able to provide quantitative analysis of dynamical systems composed of self-propelled particles.

  16. Biosphere modelling for a HLW repository - scenario and parameter variations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grogan, H.

    1985-03-01

    In Switzerland high-level radioactive wastes have been considered for disposal in deep-lying crystalline formations. The individual doses to man resulting from radionuclides entering the biosphere via groundwater transport are calculated. The main recipient area modelled, which constitutes the base case, is a broad gravel terrace sited along the south bank of the river Rhine. An alternative recipient region, a small valley with a well, is also modelled. A number of parameter variations are performed in order to ascertain their impact on the doses. Finally two scenario changes are modelled somewhat simplistically, these consider different prevailing climates, namely tundra and a warmer climate than present. In the base case negligibly low doses to man in the long term, resulting from the existence of a HLW repository have been calculated. Cs-135 results in the largest dose (8.4E-7 mrem/y at 6.1E+6 y) while Np-237 gives the largest dose from the actinides (3.6E-8 mrem/y). The response of the model to parameter variations cannot be easily predicted due to non-linear coupling of many of the parameters. However, the calculated doses were negligibly low in all cases as were those resulting from the two scenario variations. (author)

  17. A statistical study of gyro-averaging effects in a reduced model of drift-wave transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Fonseca, J. D.; del-Castillo-Negrete, D.; Sokolov, I. M.; Caldas, I. L.

    2016-08-01

    A statistical study of finite Larmor radius (FLR) effects on transport driven by electrostatic drift-waves is presented. The study is based on a reduced discrete Hamiltonian dynamical system known as the gyro-averaged standard map (GSM). In this system, FLR effects are incorporated through the gyro-averaging of a simplified weak-turbulence model of electrostatic fluctuations. Formally, the GSM is a modified version of the standard map in which the perturbation amplitude, K0, becomes K0J0(ρ ̂ ) , where J0 is the zeroth-order Bessel function and ρ ̂ is the Larmor radius. Assuming a Maxwellian probability density function (pdf) for ρ ̂ , we compute analytically and numerically the pdf and the cumulative distribution function of the effective drift-wave perturbation amplitude K0J0(ρ ̂ ) . Using these results, we compute the probability of loss of confinement (i.e., global chaos), Pc, and the probability of trapping in the main drift-wave resonance, Pt. It is shown that Pc provides an upper bound for the escape rate, and that Pt provides a good estimate of the particle trapping rate. The analytical results are compared with direct numerical Monte-Carlo simulations of particle transport.

  18. Contaminant transport in aquifers: improving the determination of model parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sabino, C.V.S.; Moreira, R.M.; Lula, Z.L.; Chausson, Y.; Magalhaes, W.F.; Vianna, M.N.

    1998-01-01

    Parameters conditioning the migration behavior of cesium and mercury are measured with their tracers 137 Cs and 203 Hg in the laboratory, using both batch and column experiments. Batch tests were used to define the sorption isotherm characteristics. Also investigated were the influences of some test parameters, in particular those due to the volume of water to mass of soil ratio (V/m). A provisional relationship between V/m and the distribution coefficient, K d , has been advanced, and a procedure to estimate K d 's valid for environmental values of the ratio V/m has been suggested. Column tests provided the parameters for a transport model. A major problem to be dealt with in such tests is the collimation of the radioactivity probe. Besides mechanically optimizing the collimator, a deconvolution procedure has been suggested and tested, with statistical criteria, to filter off both noise and spurious tracer signals. Correction procedures for the integrating effect introduced by sampling at the exit of columns have also been developed. These techniques may be helpful in increasing the accuracy required in the measurement of parameters conditioning contaminant migration in soils, thus allowing more reliable predictions based on mathematical model applications. (author)

  19. Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict and monitor the number of beds occupied during a SARS outbreak in a tertiary hospital in Singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earnest, Arul; Chen, Mark I; Ng, Donald; Sin, Leo Yee

    2005-05-11

    The main objective of this study is to apply autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to make real-time predictions on the number of beds occupied in Tan Tock Seng Hospital, during the recent SARS outbreak. This is a retrospective study design. Hospital admission and occupancy data for isolation beds was collected from Tan Tock Seng hospital for the period 14th March 2003 to 31st May 2003. The main outcome measure was daily number of isolation beds occupied by SARS patients. Among the covariates considered were daily number of people screened, daily number of people admitted (including observation, suspect and probable cases) and days from the most recent significant event discovery. We utilized the following strategy for the analysis. Firstly, we split the outbreak data into two. Data from 14th March to 21st April 2003 was used for model development. We used structural ARIMA models in an attempt to model the number of beds occupied. Estimation is via the maximum likelihood method using the Kalman filter. For the ARIMA model parameters, we considered the simplest parsimonious lowest order model. We found that the ARIMA (1,0,3) model was able to describe and predict the number of beds occupied during the SARS outbreak well. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the training set and validation set were 5.7% and 8.6% respectively, which we found was reasonable for use in the hospital setting. Furthermore, the model also provided three-day forecasts of the number of beds required. Total number of admissions and probable cases admitted on the previous day were also found to be independent prognostic factors of bed occupancy. ARIMA models provide useful tools for administrators and clinicians in planning for real-time bed capacity during an outbreak of an infectious disease such as SARS. The model could well be used in planning for bed-capacity during outbreaks of other infectious diseases as well.

  20. Middle and long-term prediction of UT1-UTC based on combination of Gray Model and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Song; Xu, Tian-he; Sun, Zhang-zhen; Li, Jia-jing

    2017-02-01

    UT1-UTC is an important part of the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP). The high-precision predictions of UT1-UTC play a key role in practical applications of deep space exploration, spacecraft tracking and satellite navigation and positioning. In this paper, a new prediction method with combination of Gray Model (GM(1, 1)) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is developed. The main idea is as following. Firstly, the UT1-UTC data are preprocessed by removing the leap second and Earth's zonal harmonic tidal to get UT1R-TAI data. Periodic terms are estimated and removed by the least square to get UT2R-TAI. Then the linear terms of UT2R-TAI data are modeled by the GM(1, 1), and the residual terms are modeled by the ARIMA. Finally, the UT2R-TAI prediction can be performed based on the combined model of GM(1, 1) and ARIMA, and the UT1-UTC predictions are obtained by adding the corresponding periodic terms, leap second correction and the Earth's zonal harmonic tidal correction. The results show that the proposed model can be used to predict UT1-UTC effectively with higher middle and long-term (from 32 to 360 days) accuracy than those of LS + AR, LS + MAR and WLS + MAR.

  1. A new LP formulation of the admission control problem modelled as an MDP under average reward criterion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietrabissa, Antonio

    2011-12-01

    The admission control problem can be modelled as a Markov decision process (MDP) under the average cost criterion and formulated as a linear programming (LP) problem. The LP formulation is attractive in the present and future communication networks, which support an increasing number of classes of service, since it can be used to explicitly control class-level requirements, such as class blocking probabilities. On the other hand, the LP formulation suffers from scalability problems as the number C of classes increases. This article proposes a new LP formulation, which, even if it does not introduce any approximation, is much more scalable: the problem size reduction with respect to the standard LP formulation is O((C + 1)2/2 C ). Theoretical and numerical simulation results prove the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  2. Progressive Learning of Topic Modeling Parameters: A Visual Analytics Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Assady, Mennatallah; Sevastjanova, Rita; Sperrle, Fabian; Keim, Daniel; Collins, Christopher

    2018-01-01

    Topic modeling algorithms are widely used to analyze the thematic composition of text corpora but remain difficult to interpret and adjust. Addressing these limitations, we present a modular visual analytics framework, tackling the understandability and adaptability of topic models through a user-driven reinforcement learning process which does not require a deep understanding of the underlying topic modeling algorithms. Given a document corpus, our approach initializes two algorithm configurations based on a parameter space analysis that enhances document separability. We abstract the model complexity in an interactive visual workspace for exploring the automatic matching results of two models, investigating topic summaries, analyzing parameter distributions, and reviewing documents. The main contribution of our work is an iterative decision-making technique in which users provide a document-based relevance feedback that allows the framework to converge to a user-endorsed topic distribution. We also report feedback from a two-stage study which shows that our technique results in topic model quality improvements on two independent measures.

  3. Propagation channel characterization, parameter estimation, and modeling for wireless communications

    CERN Document Server

    Yin, Xuefeng

    2016-01-01

    Thoroughly covering channel characteristics and parameters, this book provides the knowledge needed to design various wireless systems, such as cellular communication systems, RFID and ad hoc wireless communication systems. It gives a detailed introduction to aspects of channels before presenting the novel estimation and modelling techniques which can be used to achieve accurate models. To systematically guide readers through the topic, the book is organised in three distinct parts. The first part covers the fundamentals of the characterization of propagation channels, including the conventional single-input single-output (SISO) propagation channel characterization as well as its extension to multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) cases. Part two focuses on channel measurements and channel data post-processing. Wideband channel measurements are introduced, including the equipment, technology and advantages and disadvantages of different data acquisition schemes. The channel parameter estimation methods are ...

  4. Empirical flow parameters : a tool for hydraulic model validity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asquith, William H.; Burley, Thomas E.; Cleveland, Theodore G.

    2013-01-01

    The objectives of this project were (1) To determine and present from existing data in Texas, relations between observed stream flow, topographic slope, mean section velocity, and other hydraulic factors, to produce charts such as Figure 1 and to produce empirical distributions of the various flow parameters to provide a methodology to "check if model results are way off!"; (2) To produce a statistical regional tool to estimate mean velocity or other selected parameters for storm flows or other conditional discharges at ungauged locations (most bridge crossings) in Texas to provide a secondary way to compare such values to a conventional hydraulic modeling approach. (3.) To present ancillary values such as Froude number, stream power, Rosgen channel classification, sinuosity, and other selected characteristics (readily determinable from existing data) to provide additional information to engineers concerned with the hydraulic-soil-foundation component of transportation infrastructure.

  5. Parameter discovery in stochastic biological models using simulated annealing and statistical model checking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Faraz; Jha, Sumit K; Jha, Susmit; Langmead, Christopher J

    2014-01-01

    Stochastic models are increasingly used to study the behaviour of biochemical systems. While the structure of such models is often readily available from first principles, unknown quantitative features of the model are incorporated into the model as parameters. Algorithmic discovery of parameter values from experimentally observed facts remains a challenge for the computational systems biology community. We present a new parameter discovery algorithm that uses simulated annealing, sequential hypothesis testing, and statistical model checking to learn the parameters in a stochastic model. We apply our technique to a model of glucose and insulin metabolism used for in-silico validation of artificial pancreata and demonstrate its effectiveness by developing parallel CUDA-based implementation for parameter synthesis in this model.

  6. Study of the binary mixtures of {monoglyme + (hexane, cyclohexane, octane, dodecane)} by ECM-average and PFP models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivas, M.A.; Buep, A.H.; Iglesias, T.P.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Polarization of the real mixture is less than that of the ideal mixture. • Molar excess volume does not exert the dominant effect on the polarization of the mixture. • Similar influence of molecular interactions on the behaviour of excess permittivity. • Excess molar volume is more influenced by the interactions than excess permittivity. - Abstract: Excess molar volumes and excess permittivity of binary mixtures involving monoglyme and alkanes, such as n-hexane, cyclohexane, n-octane and n-dodecane, were calculated from density and relative permittivity measurements for the entire composition range at several temperatures (288.15, 298.15 and 308.15) K and atmospheric pressure. The excess permittivity was calculated on the basis of a recent definition considering the ideal volume fraction. Empirical equations for describing the experimental data in terms of temperature and concentration are given. The experimental values of permittivity have been compared with those estimated by well-known models from literature. The results have indicated that better predictions are obtained when the volume change on mixing is incorporated in these calculations. The contribution of interactions to the excess permittivity was analysed by means of the ECM-average model. The Prigogine–Flory–Patterson (PFP) theory of the thermodynamics of solutions was used to shed light on the contribution of interactions to the excess molar volume. The work concludes with an interpretation of the information given by the theoretical models and the behaviour of both excess magnitudes

  7. Estimation of Kinetic Parameters in an Automotive SCR Catalyst Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Åberg, Andreas; Widd, Anders; Abildskov, Jens

    2016-01-01

    be used directly for accurate full-scale transient simulations. The model was validated against full-scale data with an engine following the European Transient Cycle. The validation showed that the predictive capability for nitrogen oxides (NOx) was satisfactory. After re-estimation of the adsorption...... and desorption parameters with full-scale transient data, the fit for both NOx and NH3-slip was satisfactory....

  8. Mathematical models to predict rheological parameters of lateritic hydromixtures

    OpenAIRE

    Gabriel Hernández-Ramírez; Arístides A. Legrá-Lobaina; Beatriz Ramírez-Serrano; Liudmila Pérez-García

    2017-01-01

    The present work had as objective to establish mathematical models that allow the prognosis of the rheological parameters of the lateritic pulp at concentrations of solids from 35% to 48%, temperature of the preheated hydromixture superior to 82 ° C and number of mineral between 3 and 16. Four samples of lateritic pulp were used in the study at different process locations. The results allowed defining that the plastic properties of the lateritic pulp in the conditions of this study conform to...

  9. Modeling bioaccumulation in humans using poly-parameter linear free energy relationships (PPLFERS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Undeman, Emma, E-mail: emma.undeman@itm.su.se; Czub, Gertje; McLachlan, Michael S.

    2011-04-01

    Chemical partition coefficients between environmental media and biological tissues are a key component of bioaccumulation models. The single-parameter linear free energy relationships (spLFERs) commonly used for predicting partitioning are often derived using apolar chemicals and may not accurately capture polar chemicals. In this study, a poly-parameter LFER (ppLFER) based model of organic chemical bioaccumulation in humans is presented. Chemical partitioning was described by an air-body partition coefficient that was a volume weighted average of ppLFER based partition coefficients for the major organs and tissues constituting the human body. This model was compared to a spLFER model treating the body as a mixture of lipid ({approx} octanol) and water. Although model agreement was good for hydrophobic chemicals (average difference 15% for log K{sub OW} > 4 and log K{sub OA} > 8), the ppLFER model predicted {approx} 90% lower body burdens for hydrophilic chemicals (log K{sub OW} < 0). This was mainly due to lower predictions of muscle and adipose tissue sorption capacity for these chemicals. A comparison of the predicted muscle and adipose tissue sorption capacities of hydrophilic chemicals with measurements indicated that the ppLFER and spLFER models' uncertainties were similar. Consequently, little benefit from the implementation of ppLFERs in this model was identified. - Research Highlights: {yields}Implementation of ppLFERs resulted in on average 90% lower predicted body burdens. {yields}Uncertainties in spLFER and ppLFER predictions were similar. {yields}The benefit from implementation of ppLFERs in bioaccumulation models was limited.

  10. Mathematical properties and parameter estimation for transit compartment pharmacodynamic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, James W T

    2008-07-03

    One feature of recent research in pharmacodynamic modelling has been the move towards more mechanistically based model structures. However, in all of these models there are common sub-systems, such as feedback loops and time-delays, whose properties and contribution to the model behaviour merit some mathematical analysis. In this paper a common pharmacodynamic model sub-structure is considered: the linear transit compartment. These models have a number of interesting properties as the length of the cascade chain is increased. In the limiting case a pure time-delay is achieved [Milsum, J.H., 1966. Biological Control Systems Analysis. McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York] and the initial behaviour becoming increasingly sensitive to parameter value perturbation. It is also shown that the modelled drug effect is attenuated, though the duration of action is longer. Through this analysis the range of behaviours that such models are capable of reproducing are characterised. The properties of these models and the experimental requirements are discussed in order to highlight how mathematical analysis prior to experimentation can enhance the utility of mathematical modelling.

  11. Sensitivity of tumor motion simulation accuracy to lung biomechanical modeling approaches and parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tehrani, Joubin Nasehi; Yang, Yin; Werner, Rene; Lu, Wei; Low, Daniel; Guo, Xiaohu; Wang, Jing

    2015-11-21

    Finite element analysis (FEA)-based biomechanical modeling can be used to predict lung respiratory motion. In this technique, elastic models and biomechanical parameters are two important factors that determine modeling accuracy. We systematically evaluated the effects of lung and lung tumor biomechanical modeling approaches and related parameters to improve the accuracy of motion simulation of lung tumor center of mass (TCM) displacements. Experiments were conducted with four-dimensional computed tomography (4D-CT). A Quasi-Newton FEA was performed to simulate lung and related tumor displacements between end-expiration (phase 50%) and other respiration phases (0%, 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40%). Both linear isotropic and non-linear hyperelastic materials, including the neo-Hookean compressible and uncoupled Mooney-Rivlin models, were used to create a finite element model (FEM) of lung and tumors. Lung surface displacement vector fields (SDVFs) were obtained by registering the 50% phase CT to other respiration phases, using the non-rigid demons registration algorithm. The obtained SDVFs were used as lung surface displacement boundary conditions in FEM. The sensitivity of TCM displacement to lung and tumor biomechanical parameters was assessed in eight patients for all three models. Patient-specific optimal parameters were estimated by minimizing the TCM motion simulation errors between phase 50% and phase 0%. The uncoupled Mooney-Rivlin material model showed the highest TCM motion simulation accuracy. The average TCM motion simulation absolute errors for the Mooney-Rivlin material model along left-right, anterior-posterior, and superior-inferior directions were 0.80 mm, 0.86 mm, and 1.51 mm, respectively. The proposed strategy provides a reliable method to estimate patient-specific biomechanical parameters in FEM for lung tumor motion simulation.

  12. Sensitivity of tumor motion simulation accuracy to lung biomechanical modeling approaches and parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tehrani, Joubin Nasehi; Wang, Jing; Yang, Yin; Werner, Rene; Lu, Wei; Low, Daniel; Guo, Xiaohu

    2015-01-01

    Finite element analysis (FEA)-based biomechanical modeling can be used to predict lung respiratory motion. In this technique, elastic models and biomechanical parameters are two important factors that determine modeling accuracy. We systematically evaluated the effects of lung and lung tumor biomechanical modeling approaches and related parameters to improve the accuracy of motion simulation of lung tumor center of mass (TCM) displacements. Experiments were conducted with four-dimensional computed tomography (4D-CT). A Quasi-Newton FEA was performed to simulate lung and related tumor displacements between end-expiration (phase 50%) and other respiration phases (0%, 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40%). Both linear isotropic and non-linear hyperelastic materials, including the neo-Hookean compressible and uncoupled Mooney–Rivlin models, were used to create a finite element model (FEM) of lung and tumors. Lung surface displacement vector fields (SDVFs) were obtained by registering the 50% phase CT to other respiration phases, using the non-rigid demons registration algorithm. The obtained SDVFs were used as lung surface displacement boundary conditions in FEM. The sensitivity of TCM displacement to lung and tumor biomechanical parameters was assessed in eight patients for all three models. Patient-specific optimal parameters were estimated by minimizing the TCM motion simulation errors between phase 50% and phase 0%. The uncoupled Mooney–Rivlin material model showed the highest TCM motion simulation accuracy. The average TCM motion simulation absolute errors for the Mooney–Rivlin material model along left-right, anterior–posterior, and superior–inferior directions were 0.80 mm, 0.86 mm, and 1.51 mm, respectively. The proposed strategy provides a reliable method to estimate patient-specific biomechanical parameters in FEM for lung tumor motion simulation. (paper)

  13. Estimation Parameters And Modelling Zero Inflated Negative Binomial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cindy Cahyaning Astuti

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Regression analysis is used to determine relationship between one or several response variable (Y with one or several predictor variables (X. Regression model between predictor variables and the Poisson distributed response variable is called Poisson Regression Model. Since, Poisson Regression requires an equality between mean and variance, it is not appropriate to apply this model on overdispersion (variance is higher than mean. Poisson regression model is commonly used to analyze the count data. On the count data type, it is often to encounteredd some observations that have zero value with large proportion of zero value on the response variable (zero Inflation. Poisson regression can be used to analyze count data but it has not been able to solve problem of excess zero value on the response variable. An alternative model which is more suitable for overdispersion data and can solve the problem of excess zero value on the response variable is Zero Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB. In this research, ZINB is applied on the case of Tetanus Neonatorum in East Java. The aim of this research is to examine the likelihood function and to form an algorithm to estimate the parameter of ZINB and also applying ZINB model in the case of Tetanus Neonatorum in East Java. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE method is used to estimate the parameter on ZINB and the likelihood function is maximized using Expectation Maximization (EM algorithm. Test results of ZINB regression model showed that the predictor variable have a partial significant effect at negative binomial model is the percentage of pregnant women visits and the percentage of maternal health personnel assisted, while the predictor variables that have a partial significant effect at zero inflation model is the percentage of neonatus visits.

  14. COMPREHENSIVE CHECK MEASUREMENT OF KEY PARAMETERS ON MODEL BELT CONVEYOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlastimil MONI

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Complex measurements of characteristic parameters realised on a long distance model belt conveyor are described. The main objective was to complete and combine the regular measurements of electric power on drives of belt conveyors operated in Czech opencast mines with measurements of other physical quantities and to gain by this way an image of their mutual relations and relations of quantities derived from them. The paper includes a short description and results of the measurements on an experimental model conveyor with a closed material transport way.

  15. Information Theoretic Tools for Parameter Fitting in Coarse Grained Models

    KAUST Repository

    Kalligiannaki, Evangelia

    2015-01-07

    We study the application of information theoretic tools for model reduction in the case of systems driven by stochastic dynamics out of equilibrium. The model/dimension reduction is considered by proposing parametrized coarse grained dynamics and finding the optimal parameter set for which the relative entropy rate with respect to the atomistic dynamics is minimized. The minimization problem leads to a generalization of the force matching methods to non equilibrium systems. A multiplicative noise example reveals the importance of the diffusion coefficient in the optimization problem.

  16. Surrogate based approaches to parameter inference in ocean models

    KAUST Repository

    Knio, Omar

    2016-01-06

    This talk discusses the inference of physical parameters using model surrogates. Attention is focused on the use of sampling schemes to build suitable representations of the dependence of the model response on uncertain input data. Non-intrusive spectral projections and regularized regressions are used for this purpose. A Bayesian inference formalism is then applied to update the uncertain inputs based on available measurements or observations. To perform the update, we consider two alternative approaches, based on the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods or of adjoint-based optimization techniques. We outline the implementation of these techniques to infer dependence of wind drag, bottom drag, and internal mixing coefficients.

  17. Surrogate based approaches to parameter inference in ocean models

    KAUST Repository

    Knio, Omar

    2016-01-01

    This talk discusses the inference of physical parameters using model surrogates. Attention is focused on the use of sampling schemes to build suitable representations of the dependence of the model response on uncertain input data. Non-intrusive spectral projections and regularized regressions are used for this purpose. A Bayesian inference formalism is then applied to update the uncertain inputs based on available measurements or observations. To perform the update, we consider two alternative approaches, based on the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods or of adjoint-based optimization techniques. We outline the implementation of these techniques to infer dependence of wind drag, bottom drag, and internal mixing coefficients.

  18. The Impact of Three Factors on the Recovery of Item Parameters for the Three-Parameter Logistic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

    2017-01-01

    This article provides a detailed description of three factors (specification of the ability distribution, numerical integration, and frame of reference for the item parameter estimates) that might affect the item parameter estimation of the three-parameter logistic model, and compares five item calibration methods, which are combinations of the…

  19. Ordinary Mathematical Models in Calculating the Aviation GTE Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. Khoreva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the analytical review results of the ordinary mathematical models of the operating process used to study aviation GTE parameters and characteristics at all stages of its creation and operation. Considers the mathematical models of the zero and the first level, which are mostly used when solving typical problems in calculating parameters and characteristics of engines.Presents a number of practical problems arising in designing aviation GTE for various applications.The application of mathematical models of the zero-level engine can be quite appropriate when the engine is considered as a component in the aircraft system to estimate its calculated individual flight performance or when modeling the flight cycle of the aircrafts of different purpose.The paper demonstrates that introduction of correction functions into the first-level mathematical models in solving typical problems (influence of the Reynolds number, characteristics deterioration of the units during the overhaul period of engine, as well as influence of the flow inhomogeneity at the inlet because of manufacturing tolerance, etc. enables providing a sufficient engineering estimate accuracy to reflect a realistic operating process in the engine and its elements.

  20. Averaging operations on matrices

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2014-07-03

    Jul 3, 2014 ... Role of Positive Definite Matrices. • Diffusion Tensor Imaging: 3 × 3 pd matrices model water flow at each voxel of brain scan. • Elasticity: 6 × 6 pd matrices model stress tensors. • Machine Learning: n × n pd matrices occur as kernel matrices. Tanvi Jain. Averaging operations on matrices ...

  1. Applicability of genetic algorithms to parameter estimation of economic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcel Ševela

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper concentrates on capability of genetic algorithms for parameter estimation of non-linear economic models. In the paper we test the ability of genetic algorithms to estimate of parameters of demand function for durable goods and simultaneously search for parameters of genetic algorithm that lead to maximum effectiveness of the computation algorithm. The genetic algorithms connect deterministic iterative computation methods with stochastic methods. In the genteic aůgorithm approach each possible solution is represented by one individual, those life and lifes of all generations of individuals run under a few parameter of genetic algorithm. Our simulations resulted in optimal mutation rate of 15% of all bits in chromosomes, optimal elitism rate 20%. We can not set the optimal extend of generation, because it proves positive correlation with effectiveness of genetic algorithm in all range under research, but its impact is degreasing. The used genetic algorithm was sensitive to mutation rate at most, than to extend of generation. The sensitivity to elitism rate is not so strong.

  2. Improving filtering and prediction of spatially extended turbulent systems with model errors through stochastic parameter estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gershgorin, B.; Harlim, J.; Majda, A.J.

    2010-01-01

    The filtering and predictive skill for turbulent signals is often limited by the lack of information about the true dynamics of the system and by our inability to resolve the assumed dynamics with sufficiently high resolution using the current computing power. The standard approach is to use a simple yet rich family of constant parameters to account for model errors through parameterization. This approach can have significant skill by fitting the parameters to some statistical feature of the true signal; however in the context of real-time prediction, such a strategy performs poorly when intermittent transitions to instability occur. Alternatively, we need a set of dynamic parameters. One strategy for estimating parameters on the fly is a stochastic parameter estimation through partial observations of the true signal. In this paper, we extend our newly developed stochastic parameter estimation strategy, the Stochastic Parameterization Extended Kalman Filter (SPEKF), to filtering sparsely observed spatially extended turbulent systems which exhibit abrupt stability transition from time to time despite a stable average behavior. For our primary numerical example, we consider a turbulent system of externally forced barotropic Rossby waves with instability introduced through intermittent negative damping. We find high filtering skill of SPEKF applied to this toy model even in the case of very sparse observations (with only 15 out of the 105 grid points observed) and with unspecified external forcing and damping. Additive and multiplicative bias corrections are used to learn the unknown features of the true dynamics from observations. We also present a comprehensive study of predictive skill in the one-mode context including the robustness toward variation of stochastic parameters, imperfect initial conditions and finite ensemble effect. Furthermore, the proposed stochastic parameter estimation scheme applied to the same spatially extended Rossby wave system demonstrates

  3. Statistical comparison of models for estimating the monthly average daily diffuse radiation at a subtropical African site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bashahu, M.

    2003-01-01

    Nine correlations have been developed in this paper to estimate the monthly average diffuse radiation for Dakar, Senegal. A 16-year period data on the global (H) and diffuse (H d ) radiation, together with data on the bright sunshine hours (N), the fraction of the sky's (Ne/8), the water vapour pressure in the air (e) and the ambient temperature (T) have been used for that purpose. A model inter-comparison based on the MBE, RMSE and t statistical tests has shown that estimates in any of the obtained correlations are not significantly different from their measured counterparts, thus all the nine models are recommended for the aforesaid location. Three of them should be particularly selected for their simplicity, universal applicability and high accuracy. Those are simple linear correlations between K d and N/N d , Ne/8 or K t . Even presenting adequate performance, the remaining correlations are either simple but less accurate, or multiple or nonlinear regressions needing one or two input variables. (author)

  4. Statistical comparison of models for estimating the monthly average daily diffuse radiation at a subtropical African site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bashahu, M. [University of Burundi, Bujumbura (Burundi). Institute of Applied Pedagogy, Department of Physics and Technology

    2003-07-01

    Nine correlations have been developed in this paper to estimate the monthly average diffuse radiation for Dakar, Senegal. A 16-year period data on the global (H) and diffuse (H{sub d}) radiation, together with data on the bright sunshine hours (N), the fraction of the sky's (Ne/8), the water vapour pressure in the air (e) and the ambient temperature (T) have been used for that purpose. A model inter-comparison based on the MBE, RMSE and t statistical tests has shown that estimates in any of the obtained correlations are not significantly different from their measured counterparts, thus all the nine models are recommended for the aforesaid location. Three of them should be particularly selected for their simplicity, universal applicability and high accuracy. Those are simple linear correlations between K{sub d} and N/N{sub d}, Ne/8 or K{sub t}. Even presenting adequate performance, the remaining correlations are either simple but less accurate, or multiple or nonlinear regressions needing one or two input variables. (author)

  5. A function accounting for training set size and marker density to model the average accuracy of genomic prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erbe, Malena; Gredler, Birgit; Seefried, Franz Reinhold; Bapst, Beat; Simianer, Henner

    2013-01-01

    Prediction of genomic breeding values is of major practical relevance in dairy cattle breeding. Deterministic equations have been suggested to predict the accuracy of genomic breeding values in a given design which are based on training set size, reliability of phenotypes, and the number of independent chromosome segments ([Formula: see text]). The aim of our study was to find a general deterministic equation for the average accuracy of genomic breeding values that also accounts for marker density and can be fitted empirically. Two data sets of 5'698 Holstein Friesian bulls genotyped with 50 K SNPs and 1'332 Brown Swiss bulls genotyped with 50 K SNPs and imputed to ∼600 K SNPs were available. Different k-fold (k = 2-10, 15, 20) cross-validation scenarios (50 replicates, random assignment) were performed using a genomic BLUP approach. A maximum likelihood approach was used to estimate the parameters of different prediction equations. The highest likelihood was obtained when using a modified form of the deterministic equation of Daetwyler et al. (2010), augmented by a weighting factor (w) based on the assumption that the maximum achievable accuracy is [Formula: see text]. The proportion of genetic variance captured by the complete SNP sets ([Formula: see text]) was 0.76 to 0.82 for Holstein Friesian and 0.72 to 0.75 for Brown Swiss. When modifying the number of SNPs, w was found to be proportional to the log of the marker density up to a limit which is population and trait specific and was found to be reached with ∼20'000 SNPs in the Brown Swiss population studied.

  6. A function accounting for training set size and marker density to model the average accuracy of genomic prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malena Erbe

    Full Text Available Prediction of genomic breeding values is of major practical relevance in dairy cattle breeding. Deterministic equations have been suggested to predict the accuracy of genomic breeding values in a given design which are based on training set size, reliability of phenotypes, and the number of independent chromosome segments ([Formula: see text]. The aim of our study was to find a general deterministic equation for the average accuracy of genomic breeding values that also accounts for marker density and can be fitted empirically. Two data sets of 5'698 Holstein Friesian bulls genotyped with 50 K SNPs and 1'332 Brown Swiss bulls genotyped with 50 K SNPs and imputed to ∼600 K SNPs were available. Different k-fold (k = 2-10, 15, 20 cross-validation scenarios (50 replicates, random assignment were performed using a genomic BLUP approach. A maximum likelihood approach was used to estimate the parameters of different prediction equations. The highest likelihood was obtained when using a modified form of the deterministic equation of Daetwyler et al. (2010, augmented by a weighting factor (w based on the assumption that the maximum achievable accuracy is [Formula: see text]. The proportion of genetic variance captured by the complete SNP sets ([Formula: see text] was 0.76 to 0.82 for Holstein Friesian and 0.72 to 0.75 for Brown Swiss. When modifying the number of SNPs, w was found to be proportional to the log of the marker density up to a limit which is population and trait specific and was found to be reached with ∼20'000 SNPs in the Brown Swiss population studied.

  7. A Review of Distributed Parameter Groundwater Management Modeling Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorelick, Steven M.

    1983-04-01

    Models which solve the governing groundwater flow or solute transport equations in conjunction with optimization techniques, such as linear and quadratic programing, are powerful aquifer management tools. Groundwater management models fall in two general categories: hydraulics or policy evaluation and water allocation. Groundwater hydraulic management models enable the determination of optimal locations and pumping rates of numerous wells under a variety of restrictions placed upon local drawdown, hydraulic gradients, and water production targets. Groundwater policy evaluation and allocation models can be used to study the influence upon regional groundwater use of institutional policies such as taxes and quotas. Furthermore, fairly complex groundwater-surface water allocation problems can be handled using system decomposition and multilevel optimization. Experience from the few real world applications of groundwater optimization-management techniques is summarized. Classified separately are methods for groundwater quality management aimed at optimal waste disposal in the subsurface. This classification is composed of steady state and transient management models that determine disposal patterns in such a way that water quality is protected at supply locations. Classes of research missing from the literature are groundwater quality management models involving nonlinear constraints, models which join groundwater hydraulic and quality simulations with political-economic management considerations, and management models that include parameter uncertainty.

  8. Parameters of oscillation generation regions in open star cluster models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danilov, V. M.; Putkov, S. I.

    2017-07-01

    We determine the masses and radii of central regions of open star cluster (OCL) models with small or zero entropy production and estimate the masses of oscillation generation regions in clustermodels based on the data of the phase-space coordinates of stars. The radii of such regions are close to the core radii of the OCL models. We develop a new method for estimating the total OCL masses based on the cluster core mass, the cluster and cluster core radii, and radial distribution of stars. This method yields estimates of dynamical masses of Pleiades, Praesepe, and M67, which agree well with the estimates of the total masses of the corresponding clusters based on proper motions and spectroscopic data for cluster stars.We construct the spectra and dispersion curves of the oscillations of the field of azimuthal velocities v φ in OCL models. Weak, low-amplitude unstable oscillations of v φ develop in cluster models near the cluster core boundary, and weak damped oscillations of v φ often develop at frequencies close to the frequencies of more powerful oscillations, which may reduce the non-stationarity degree in OCL models. We determine the number and parameters of such oscillations near the cores boundaries of cluster models. Such oscillations points to the possible role that gradient instability near the core of cluster models plays in the decrease of the mass of the oscillation generation regions and production of entropy in the cores of OCL models with massive extended cores.

  9. A Study of Single- and Double-Averaged Second-Order Models to Evaluate Third-Body Perturbation Considering Elliptic Orbits for the Perturbing Body

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. C. Domingos

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The equations for the variations of the Keplerian elements of the orbit of a spacecraft perturbed by a third body are developed using a single average over the motion of the spacecraft, considering an elliptic orbit for the disturbing body. A comparison is made between this approach and the more used double averaged technique, as well as with the full elliptic restricted three-body problem. The disturbing function is expanded in Legendre polynomials up to the second order in both cases. The equations of motion are obtained from the planetary equations, and several numerical simulations are made to show the evolution of the orbit of the spacecraft. Some characteristics known from the circular perturbing body are studied: circular, elliptic equatorial, and frozen orbits. Different initial eccentricities for the perturbed body are considered, since the effect of this variable is one of the goals of the present study. The results show the impact of this parameter as well as the differences between both models compared to the full elliptic restricted three-body problem. Regions below, near, and above the critical angle of the third-body perturbation are considered, as well as different altitudes for the orbit of the spacecraft.

  10. Identifyability measures to select the parameters to be estimated in a solid-state fermentation distributed parameter model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silveira, Christian L; Mazutti, Marcio A; Salau, Nina P G

    2016-07-08

    Process modeling can lead to of advantages such as helping in process control, reducing process costs and product quality improvement. This work proposes a solid-state fermentation distributed parameter model composed by seven differential equations with seventeen parameters to represent the process. Also, parameters estimation with a parameters identifyability analysis (PIA) is performed to build an accurate model with optimum parameters. Statistical tests were made to verify the model accuracy with the estimated parameters considering different assumptions. The results have shown that the model assuming substrate inhibition better represents the process. It was also shown that eight from the seventeen original model parameters were nonidentifiable and better results were obtained with the removal of these parameters from the estimation procedure. Therefore, PIA can be useful to estimation procedure, since it may reduce the number of parameters that can be evaluated. Further, PIA improved the model results, showing to be an important procedure to be taken. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 32:905-917, 2016. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

  11. Modeling parameters that characterize pacing of elite female 800-m freestyle swimmers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipińska, Patrycja; Allen, Sian V; Hopkins, Will G

    2016-01-01

    Pacing offers a potential avenue for enhancement of endurance performance. We report here a novel method for characterizing pacing in 800-m freestyle swimming. Websites provided 50-m lap and race times for 192 swims of 20 elite female swimmers between 2000 and 2013. Pacing for each swim was characterized with five parameters derived from a linear model: linear and quadratic coefficients for effect of lap number, reductions from predicted time for first and last laps, and lap-time variability (standard error of the estimate). Race-to-race consistency of the parameters was expressed as intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). The average swim was a shallow negative quadratic with slowest time in the eleventh lap. First and last laps were faster by 6.4% and 3.6%, and lap-time variability was ±0.64%. Consistency between swimmers ranged from low-moderate for the linear and quadratic parameters (ICC = 0.29 and 0.36) to high for the last-lap parameter (ICC = 0.62), while consistency for race time was very high (ICC = 0.80). Only ~15% of swimmers had enough swims (~15 or more) to provide reasonable evidence of optimum parameter values in plots of race time vs. each parameter. The modest consistency of most of the pacing parameters and lack of relationships between parameters and performance suggest that swimmers usually compensated for changes in one parameter with changes in another. In conclusion, pacing in 800-m elite female swimmers can be characterized with five parameters, but identifying an optimal pacing profile is generally impractical.

  12. Global distribution of urban parameters derived from high-resolution global datasets for weather modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawano, N.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Dong, Y.; Kanda, M.

    2016-12-01

    Numerical model such as Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with single-layer Urban Canopy Model (WRF-UCM) is one of the powerful tools to investigate urban heat island. Urban parameters such as average building height (Have), plain area index (λp) and frontal area index (λf), are necessary inputs for the model. In general, these parameters are uniformly assumed in WRF-UCM but this leads to unrealistic urban representation. Distributed urban parameters can also be incorporated into WRF-UCM to consider a detail urban effect. The problem is that distributed building information is not readily available for most megacities especially in developing countries. Furthermore, acquiring real building parameters often require huge amount of time and money. In this study, we investigated the potential of using globally available satellite-captured datasets for the estimation of the parameters, Have, λp, and λf. Global datasets comprised of high spatial resolution population dataset (LandScan by Oak Ridge National Laboratory), nighttime lights (NOAA), and vegetation fraction (NASA). True samples of Have, λp, and λf were acquired from actual building footprints from satellite images and 3D building database of Tokyo, New York, Paris, Melbourne, Istanbul, Jakarta and so on. Regression equations were then derived from the block-averaging of spatial pairs of real parameters and global datasets. Results show that two regression curves to estimate Have and λf from the combination of population and nightlight are necessary depending on the city's level of development. An index which can be used to decide which equation to use for a city is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). On the other hand, λphas less dependence on GDP but indicated a negative relationship to vegetation fraction. Finally, a simplified but precise approximation of urban parameters through readily-available, high-resolution global datasets and our derived regressions can be utilized to estimate a

  13. Identification of biomolecule mass transport and binding rate parameters in living cells by inverse modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shirmohammadi Adel

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Quantification of in-vivo biomolecule mass transport and reaction rate parameters from experimental data obtained by Fluorescence Recovery after Photobleaching (FRAP is becoming more important. Methods and results The Osborne-Moré extended version of the Levenberg-Marquardt optimization algorithm was coupled with the experimental data obtained by the Fluorescence Recovery after Photobleaching (FRAP protocol, and the numerical solution of a set of two partial differential equations governing macromolecule mass transport and reaction in living cells, to inversely estimate optimized values of the molecular diffusion coefficient and binding rate parameters of GFP-tagged glucocorticoid receptor. The results indicate that the FRAP protocol provides enough information to estimate one parameter uniquely using a nonlinear optimization technique. Coupling FRAP experimental data with the inverse modeling strategy, one can also uniquely estimate the individual values of the binding rate coefficients if the molecular diffusion coefficient is known. One can also simultaneously estimate the dissociation rate parameter and molecular diffusion coefficient given the pseudo-association rate parameter is known. However, the protocol provides insufficient information for unique simultaneous estimation of three parameters (diffusion coefficient and binding rate parameters owing to the high intercorrelation between the molecular diffusion coefficient and pseudo-association rate parameter. Attempts to estimate macromolecule mass transport and binding rate parameters simultaneously from FRAP data result in misleading conclusions regarding concentrations of free macromolecule and bound complex inside the cell, average binding time per vacant site, average time for diffusion of macromolecules from one site to the next, and slow or rapid mobility of biomolecules in cells. Conclusion To obtain unique values for molecular diffusion coefficient and

  14. Tension-compression asymmetry modelling: strategies for anisotropy parameters identification.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barros Pedro

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents details concerning the strategies and algorithms adopted in the fully implicit FE solver DD3IMP to model the orthotropic behavior of metallic sheets and the procedure for anisotropy parameters identification. The work is focused on the yield criterion developed by Cazacu, Plunkett and Barlat, 2006 [1], which accounts for both tension–compression asymmetry and orthotropic plastic behavior. The anisotropy parameters for a 2090-T3 aluminum alloy are identified accounting, or not, for the tension-compression asymmetry. The numerical simulation of a cup drawing is performed for this material, highlighting the importance of considering tension-compression asymmetry in the prediction of the earing profile, for materials with cubic structure, even if this phenomenon is relatively small.

  15. Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Grey-Box Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Niels Rode; Madsen, Henrik; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2004-01-01

    An efficient and flexible parameter estimation scheme for grey-box models in the sense of discretely, partially observed Ito stochastic differential equations with measurement noise is presented along with a corresponding software implementation. The estimation scheme is based on the extended...... Kalman filter and features maximum likelihood as well as maximum a posteriori estimation on multiple independent data sets, including irregularly sampled data sets and data sets with occasional outliers and missing observations. The software implementation is compared to an existing software tool...... and proves to have better performance both in terms of quality of estimates for nonlinear systems with significant diffusion and in terms of reproducibility. In particular, the new tool provides more accurate and more consistent estimates of the parameters of the diffusion term....

  16. Modelling Technical and Economic Parameters in Selection of Manufacturing Devices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naqib Daneshjo

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable science and technology development is also conditioned by continuous development of means of production which have a key role in structure of each production system. Mechanical nature of the means of production is complemented by controlling and electronic devices in context of intelligent industry. A selection of production machines for a technological process or technological project has so far been practically resolved, often only intuitively. With regard to increasing intelligence, the number of variable parameters that have to be considered when choosing a production device is also increasing. It is necessary to use computing techniques and decision making methods according to heuristic methods and more precise methodological procedures during the selection. The authors present an innovative model for optimization of technical and economic parameters in the selection of manufacturing devices for industry 4.0.

  17. Automated parameter estimation for biological models using Bayesian statistical model checking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Faraz; Langmead, Christopher J; Mi, Qi; Dutta-Moscato, Joyeeta; Vodovotz, Yoram; Jha, Sumit K

    2015-01-01

    Probabilistic models have gained widespread acceptance in the systems biology community as a useful way to represent complex biological systems. Such models are developed using existing knowledge of the structure and dynamics of the system, experimental observations, and inferences drawn from statistical analysis of empirical data. A key bottleneck in building such models is that some system variables cannot be measured experimentally. These variables are incorporated into the model as numerical parameters. Determining values of these parameters that justify existing experiments and provide reliable predictions when model simulations are performed is a key research problem. Using an agent-based model of the dynamics of acute inflammation, we demonstrate a novel parameter estimation algorithm by discovering the amount and schedule of doses of bacterial lipopolysaccharide that guarantee a set of observed clinical outcomes with high probability. We synthesized values of twenty-eight unknown parameters such that the parameterized model instantiated with these parameter values satisfies four specifications describing the dynamic behavior of the model. We have developed a new algorithmic technique for discovering parameters in complex stochastic models of biological systems given behavioral specifications written in a formal mathematical logic. Our algorithm uses Bayesian model checking, sequential hypothesis testing, and stochastic optimization to automatically synthesize parameters of probabilistic biological models.

  18. Phase diagram distortion from traffic parameter averaging.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stipdonk, H. Toorenburg, J. van & Postema, M.

    2010-01-01

    Motorway traffic congestion is a major bottleneck for economic growth. Therefore, research of traffic behaviour is carried out in many countries. Although well describing the undersaturated free flow phase as an almost straight line in a (k,q)-phase diagram, congested traffic observations and

  19. Average resonance parameters evaluation for actinides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Porodzinskij, Yu.V.; Sukhovitskij, E.Sh. [Radiation Physics and Chemistry Problems Inst., Minsk-Sosny (Belarus)

    1997-03-01

    New evaluated <{Gamma}{sub n}{sup 0}> and values for {sup 238}U, {sup 237}Np, {sup 243}Cm, {sup 245}Cm, {sup 246}Cm and {sup 241}Am nuclei in the resolved resonance region are presented. The applied method based on the idea that experimental resonance missing results in correlated changes of reduced neutron widths and level spacings distributions is discussed. (author)

  20. Identification of grid model parameters using synchrophasor measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boicea, Valentin; Albu, Mihaela [Politehnica University of Bucharest (Romania)

    2012-07-01

    Presently a critical element of the energy networks is represented by the active distribution grids, where generation intermittency and controllable loads contribute to a stochastic varability of the quantities characterizing the grid operation. The capability of controlling the electrical energy transfer is also limited by the incomplete knowledge of the detailed electrical model of each of the grid components. Asset management in distribution grids has to consider dynamic loads, while high loading of network sections might already have degraded some of the assets. Moreover, in case of functional microgrids, all elements need to be modelled accurately and an appropriate measurement layer enabling online control needs to be deployed. In this paper a method for online identification of the actual parameter values in grid electrical models is proposed. Laboratory results validating the proposed method are presented. (orig.)