The fine-tuning cost of the likelihood in SUSY models

CERN Document Server

Ghilencea, D M

2013-01-01

In SUSY models, the fine tuning of the electroweak (EW) scale with respect to their parameters gamma_i={m_0, m_{1/2}, mu_0, A_0, B_0,...} and the maximal likelihood L to fit the experimental data are usually regarded as two different problems. We show that, if one regards the EW minimum conditions as constraints that fix the EW scale, this commonly held view is not correct and that the likelihood contains all the information about fine-tuning. In this case we show that the corrected likelihood is equal to the ratio L/Delta of the usual likelihood L and the traditional fine tuning measure Delta of the EW scale. A similar result is obtained for the integrated likelihood over the set {gamma_i}, that can be written as a surface integral of the ratio L/Delta, with the surface in gamma_i space determined by the EW minimum constraints. As a result, a large likelihood actually demands a large ratio L/Delta or equivalently, a small chi^2_{new}=chi^2_{old}+2*ln(Delta). This shows the fine-tuning cost to the likelihood ...

Generalized linear models with random effects unified analysis via H-likelihood

CERN Document Server

Lee, Youngjo; Pawitan, Yudi

2006-01-01

Since their introduction in 1972, generalized linear models (GLMs) have proven useful in the generalization of classical normal models. Presenting methods for fitting GLMs with random effects to data, Generalized Linear Models with Random Effects: Unified Analysis via H-likelihood explores a wide range of applications, including combining information over trials (meta-analysis), analysis of frailty models for survival data, genetic epidemiology, and analysis of spatial and temporal models with correlated errors.Written by pioneering authorities in the field, this reference provides an introduction to various theories and examines likelihood inference and GLMs. The authors show how to extend the class of GLMs while retaining as much simplicity as possible. By maximizing and deriving other quantities from h-likelihood, they also demonstrate how to use a single algorithm for all members of the class, resulting in a faster algorithm as compared to existing alternatives. Complementing theory with examples, many of...

A neurocomputational model of automatic sequence production.

Science.gov (United States)

Helie, Sebastien; Roeder, Jessica L; Vucovich, Lauren; Rünger, Dennis; Ashby, F Gregory

2015-07-01

Most behaviors unfold in time and include a sequence of submovements or cognitive activities. In addition, most behaviors are automatic and repeated daily throughout life. Yet, relatively little is known about the neurobiology of automatic sequence production. Past research suggests a gradual transfer from the associative striatum to the sensorimotor striatum, but a number of more recent studies challenge this role of the BG in automatic sequence production. In this article, we propose a new neurocomputational model of automatic sequence production in which the main role of the BG is to train cortical-cortical connections within the premotor areas that are responsible for automatic sequence production. The new model is used to simulate four different data sets from human and nonhuman animals, including (1) behavioral data (e.g., RTs), (2) electrophysiology data (e.g., single-neuron recordings), (3) macrostructure data (e.g., TMS), and (4) neurological circuit data (e.g., inactivation studies). We conclude with a comparison of the new model with existing models of automatic sequence production and discuss a possible new role for the BG in automaticity and its implication for Parkinson's disease.

Modelling maximum likelihood estimation of availability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waller, R.A.; Tietjen, G.L.; Rock, G.W.

1975-01-01

Suppose the performance of a nuclear powered electrical generating power plant is continuously monitored to record the sequence of failure and repairs during sustained operation. The purpose of this study is to assess one method of estimating the performance of the power plant when the measure of performance is availability. That is, we determine the probability that the plant is operational at time t. To study the availability of a power plant, we first assume statistical models for the variables, X and Y, which denote the time-to-failure and the time-to-repair variables, respectively. Once those statistical models are specified, the availability, A(t), can be expressed as a function of some or all of their parameters. Usually those parameters are unknown in practice and so A(t) is unknown. This paper discusses the maximum likelihood estimator of A(t) when the time-to-failure model for X is an exponential density with parameter, lambda, and the time-to-repair model for Y is an exponential density with parameter, theta. Under the assumption of exponential models for X and Y, it follows that the instantaneous availability at time t is A(t)=lambda/(lambda+theta)+theta/(lambda+theta)exp[-[(1/lambda)+(1/theta)]t] with t>0. Also, the steady-state availability is A(infinity)=lambda/(lambda+theta). We use the observations from n failure-repair cycles of the power plant, say X 1 , X 2 , ..., Xsub(n), Y 1 , Y 2 , ..., Ysub(n) to present the maximum likelihood estimators of A(t) and A(infinity). The exact sampling distributions for those estimators and some statistical properties are discussed before a simulation model is used to determine 95% simulation intervals for A(t). The methodology is applied to two examples which approximate the operating history of two nuclear power plants. (author)

Finite mixture model: A maximum likelihood estimation approach on time series data

Science.gov (United States)

Yen, Phoong Seuk; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Hamzah, Firdaus Mohamad

2014-09-01

Recently, statistician emphasized on the fitting of finite mixture model by using maximum likelihood estimation as it provides asymptotic properties. In addition, it shows consistency properties as the sample sizes increases to infinity. This illustrated that maximum likelihood estimation is an unbiased estimator. Moreover, the estimate parameters obtained from the application of maximum likelihood estimation have smallest variance as compared to others statistical method as the sample sizes increases. Thus, maximum likelihood estimation is adopted in this paper to fit the two-component mixture model in order to explore the relationship between rubber price and exchange rate for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia. Results described that there is a negative effect among rubber price and exchange rate for all selected countries.

Block Empirical Likelihood for Longitudinal Single-Index Varying-Coefficient Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yunquan Song

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we consider a single-index varying-coefficient model with application to longitudinal data. In order to accommodate the within-group correlation, we apply the block empirical likelihood procedure to longitudinal single-index varying-coefficient model, and prove a nonparametric version of Wilks’ theorem which can be used to construct the block empirical likelihood confidence region with asymptotically correct coverage probability for the parametric component. In comparison with normal approximations, the proposed method does not require a consistent estimator for the asymptotic covariance matrix, making it easier to conduct inference for the model's parametric component. Simulations demonstrate how the proposed method works.

Likelihood inference for a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Søren; Ørregård Nielsen, Morten

2012-01-01

such that the process X_{t} is fractional of order d and cofractional of order d-b; that is, there exist vectors ß for which ß'X_{t} is fractional of order d-b, and no other fractionality order is possible. We define the statistical model by 0inference when the true values satisfy b0¿1/2 and d0-b0......We consider model based inference in a fractionally cointegrated (or cofractional) vector autoregressive model with a restricted constant term, ¿, based on the Gaussian likelihood conditional on initial values. The model nests the I(d) VAR model. We give conditions on the parameters...... process in the parameters when errors are i.i.d. with suitable moment conditions and initial values are bounded. When the limit is deterministic this implies uniform convergence in probability of the conditional likelihood function. If the true value b0>1/2, we prove that the limit distribution of (ß...

Reconceptualizing Social Influence in Counseling: The Elaboration Likelihood Model.

Science.gov (United States)

McNeill, Brian W.; Stoltenberg, Cal D.

1989-01-01

Presents Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) of persuasion (a reconceptualization of the social influence process) as alternative model of attitude change. Contends ELM unifies conflicting social psychology results and can potentially account for inconsistent research findings in counseling psychology. Provides guidelines on integrating…

Automatic differentiation algorithms in model analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huiskes, M.J.

2002-01-01

Title: Automatic differentiation algorithms in model analysis
Author: M.J. Huiskes
Date: 19 March, 2002

In this thesis automatic differentiation algorithms and derivative-based methods

Statistical modelling of survival data with random effects h-likelihood approach

CERN Document Server

Ha, Il Do; Lee, Youngjo

2017-01-01

This book provides a groundbreaking introduction to the likelihood inference for correlated survival data via the hierarchical (or h-) likelihood in order to obtain the (marginal) likelihood and to address the computational difficulties in inferences and extensions. The approach presented in the book overcomes shortcomings in the traditional likelihood-based methods for clustered survival data such as intractable integration. The text includes technical materials such as derivations and proofs in each chapter, as well as recently developed software programs in R (“frailtyHL”), while the real-world data examples together with an R package, “frailtyHL” in CRAN, provide readers with useful hands-on tools. Reviewing new developments since the introduction of the h-likelihood to survival analysis (methods for interval estimation of the individual frailty and for variable selection of the fixed effects in the general class of frailty models) and guiding future directions, the book is of interest to research...

Review of Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion

OpenAIRE

藤原, 武弘; 神山, 貴弥

1989-01-01

This article mainly introduces Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM), proposed by Petty & Cacioppo, that is, a general attitude change theory. ELM posturates two routes to persuasion; central and peripheral route. Attitude change by central route is viewed as resulting from a diligent consideration of the issue-relevant informations presented. On the other hand, attitude change by peripheral route is viewed as resulting from peripheral cues in the persuasion context. Secondly we compare these tw...

Approximate Likelihood

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2015-01-01

Most physics results at the LHC end in a likelihood ratio test. This includes discovery and exclusion for searches as well as mass, cross-section, and coupling measurements. The use of Machine Learning (multivariate) algorithms in HEP is mainly restricted to searches, which can be reduced to classification between two fixed distributions: signal vs. background. I will show how we can extend the use of ML classifiers to distributions parameterized by physical quantities like masses and couplings as well as nuisance parameters associated to systematic uncertainties. This allows for one to approximate the likelihood ratio while still using a high dimensional feature vector for the data. Both the MEM and ABC approaches mentioned above aim to provide inference on model parameters (like cross-sections, masses, couplings, etc.). ABC is fundamentally tied Bayesian inference and focuses on the “likelihood free” setting where only a simulator is available and one cannot directly compute the likelihood for the dat...

Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of nonminimum phase and noncausal ARMA models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Klaus Bolding

1994-01-01

The well-known prediction-error-based maximum likelihood (PEML) method can only handle minimum phase ARMA models. This paper presents a new method known as the back-filtering-based maximum likelihood (BFML) method, which can handle nonminimum phase and noncausal ARMA models. The BFML method...... is identical to the PEML method in the case of a minimum phase ARMA model, and it turns out that the BFML method incorporates a noncausal ARMA filter with poles outside the unit circle for estimation of the parameters of a causal, nonminimum phase ARMA model...

Maximum likelihood pixel labeling using a spatially variant finite mixture model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gopal, S.S.; Hebert, T.J.

1996-01-01

We propose a spatially-variant mixture model for pixel labeling. Based on this spatially-variant mixture model we derive an expectation maximization algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of the pixel labels. While most algorithms using mixture models entail the subsequent use of a Bayes classifier for pixel labeling, the proposed algorithm yields maximum likelihood estimates of the labels themselves and results in unambiguous pixel labels. The proposed algorithm is fast, robust, easy to implement, flexible in that it can be applied to any arbitrary image data where the number of classes is known and, most importantly, obviates the need for an explicit labeling rule. The algorithm is evaluated both quantitatively and qualitatively on simulated data and on clinical magnetic resonance images of the human brain

Calibration of two complex ecosystem models with different likelihood functions

Science.gov (United States)

Hidy, Dóra; Haszpra, László; Pintér, Krisztina; Nagy, Zoltán; Barcza, Zoltán

2014-05-01

The biosphere is a sensitive carbon reservoir. Terrestrial ecosystems were approximately carbon neutral during the past centuries, but they became net carbon sinks due to climate change induced environmental change and associated CO2 fertilization effect of the atmosphere. Model studies and measurements indicate that the biospheric carbon sink can saturate in the future due to ongoing climate change which can act as a positive feedback. Robustness of carbon cycle models is a key issue when trying to choose the appropriate model for decision support. The input parameters of the process-based models are decisive regarding the model output. At the same time there are several input parameters for which accurate values are hard to obtain directly from experiments or no local measurements are available. Due to the uncertainty associated with the unknown model parameters significant bias can be experienced if the model is used to simulate the carbon and nitrogen cycle components of different ecosystems. In order to improve model performance the unknown model parameters has to be estimated. We developed a multi-objective, two-step calibration method based on Bayesian approach in order to estimate the unknown parameters of PaSim and Biome-BGC models. Biome-BGC and PaSim are a widely used biogeochemical models that simulate the storage and flux of water, carbon, and nitrogen between the ecosystem and the atmosphere, and within the components of the terrestrial ecosystems (in this research the developed version of Biome-BGC is used which is referred as BBGC MuSo). Both models were calibrated regardless the simulated processes and type of model parameters. The calibration procedure is based on the comparison of measured data with simulated results via calculating a likelihood function (degree of goodness-of-fit between simulated and measured data). In our research different likelihood function formulations were used in order to examine the effect of the different model

Menyoal Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM dan Teori Retorika

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yudi Perbawaningsih

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract: Persuasion is a communication process to establish or change attitudes, which can be understood through theory of Rhetoric and theory of Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM. This study elaborates these theories in a Public Lecture series which to persuade the students in choosing their concentration of study. The result shows that in term of persuasion effectiveness it is not quite relevant to separate the message and its source. The quality of source is determined by the quality of the message, and vice versa. Separating the two routes of the persuasion process as described in the ELM theory would not be relevant. Abstrak: Persuasi adalah proses komunikasi untuk membentuk atau mengubah sikap, yang dapat dipahami dengan teori Retorika dan teori Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM. Penelitian ini mengelaborasi teori tersebut dalam Kuliah Umum sebagai sarana mempersuasi mahasiswa untuk memilih konsentrasi studi studi yang didasarkan pada proses pengolahan informasi. Menggunakan metode survey, didapatkan hasil yaitu tidaklah cukup relevan memisahkan pesan dan narasumber dalam melihat efektivitas persuasi. Keduanya menyatu yang berarti bahwa kualitas narasumber ditentukan oleh kualitas pesan yang disampaikannya, dan sebaliknya. Memisahkan proses persuasi dalam dua lajur seperti yang dijelaskan dalam ELM teori menjadi tidak relevan.

Automatic terrain modeling using transfinite element analysis

KAUST Repository

Collier, Nathan; Calo, Victor M.

2010-01-01

An automatic procedure for modeling terrain is developed based on L2 projection-based interpolation of discrete terrain data onto transfinite function spaces. The function space is refined automatically by the use of image processing techniques

Likelihood-Based Inference in Nonlinear Error-Correction Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Dennis; Rahbæk, Anders

We consider a class of vector nonlinear error correction models where the transfer function (or loadings) of the stationary relation- ships is nonlinear. This includes in particular the smooth transition models. A general representation theorem is given which establishes the dynamic properties...... and a linear trend in general. Gaussian likelihood-based estimators are considered for the long- run cointegration parameters, and the short-run parameters. Asymp- totic theory is provided for these and it is discussed to what extend asymptotic normality and mixed normaity can be found. A simulation study...

Penggunaan Elaboration Likelihood Model dalam Menganalisis Penerimaan Teknologi Informasi

OpenAIRE

vitrian, vitrian2

2010-01-01

This article discusses some technology acceptance models in an organization. Thorough analysis of how technology is acceptable help managers make any planning to implement new teachnology and make sure that new technology could enhance organization's performance. Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) is the one which sheds light on some behavioral factors in acceptance of information technology. The basic tenet of ELM states that human behavior in principle can be influenced through central r...

Efficient simulation and likelihood methods for non-neutral multi-allele models.

Science.gov (United States)

Joyce, Paul; Genz, Alan; Buzbas, Erkan Ozge

2012-06-01

Throughout the 1980s, Simon Tavaré made numerous significant contributions to population genetics theory. As genetic data, in particular DNA sequence, became more readily available, a need to connect population-genetic models to data became the central issue. The seminal work of Griffiths and Tavaré (1994a , 1994b , 1994c) was among the first to develop a likelihood method to estimate the population-genetic parameters using full DNA sequences. Now, we are in the genomics era where methods need to scale-up to handle massive data sets, and Tavaré has led the way to new approaches. However, performing statistical inference under non-neutral models has proved elusive. In tribute to Simon Tavaré, we present an article in spirit of his work that provides a computationally tractable method for simulating and analyzing data under a class of non-neutral population-genetic models. Computational methods for approximating likelihood functions and generating samples under a class of allele-frequency based non-neutral parent-independent mutation models were proposed by Donnelly, Nordborg, and Joyce (DNJ) (Donnelly et al., 2001). DNJ (2001) simulated samples of allele frequencies from non-neutral models using neutral models as auxiliary distribution in a rejection algorithm. However, patterns of allele frequencies produced by neutral models are dissimilar to patterns of allele frequencies produced by non-neutral models, making the rejection method inefficient. For example, in some cases the methods in DNJ (2001) require 10(9) rejections before a sample from the non-neutral model is accepted. Our method simulates samples directly from the distribution of non-neutral models, making simulation methods a practical tool to study the behavior of the likelihood and to perform inference on the strength of selection.

Applying Hierarchical Model Calibration to Automatically Generated Items.

Science.gov (United States)

Williamson, David M.; Johnson, Matthew S.; Sinharay, Sandip; Bejar, Isaac I.

This study explored the application of hierarchical model calibration as a means of reducing, if not eliminating, the need for pretesting of automatically generated items from a common item model prior to operational use. Ultimately the successful development of automatic item generation (AIG) systems capable of producing items with highly similar…

Computation of the Likelihood in Biallelic Diffusion Models Using Orthogonal Polynomials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claus Vogl

2014-11-01

Full Text Available In population genetics, parameters describing forces such as mutation, migration and drift are generally inferred from molecular data. Lately, approximate methods based on simulations and summary statistics have been widely applied for such inference, even though these methods waste information. In contrast, probabilistic methods of inference can be shown to be optimal, if their assumptions are met. In genomic regions where recombination rates are high relative to mutation rates, polymorphic nucleotide sites can be assumed to evolve independently from each other. The distribution of allele frequencies at a large number of such sites has been called “allele-frequency spectrum” or “site-frequency spectrum” (SFS. Conditional on the allelic proportions, the likelihoods of such data can be modeled as binomial. A simple model representing the evolution of allelic proportions is the biallelic mutation-drift or mutation-directional selection-drift diffusion model. With series of orthogonal polynomials, specifically Jacobi and Gegenbauer polynomials, or the related spheroidal wave function, the diffusion equations can be solved efficiently. In the neutral case, the product of the binomial likelihoods with the sum of such polynomials leads to finite series of polynomials, i.e., relatively simple equations, from which the exact likelihoods can be calculated. In this article, the use of orthogonal polynomials for inferring population genetic parameters is investigated.

On-line validation of linear process models using generalized likelihood ratios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tylee, J.L.

1981-12-01

A real-time method for testing the validity of linear models of nonlinear processes is described and evaluated. Using generalized likelihood ratios, the model dynamics are continually monitored to see if the process has moved far enough away from the nominal linear model operating point to justify generation of a new linear model. The method is demonstrated using a seventh-order model of a natural circulation steam generator

Menyoal Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) dan Teori Retorika

OpenAIRE

Yudi Perbawaningsih

2012-01-01

Abstract: Persuasion is a communication process to establish or change attitudes, which can be understood through theory of Rhetoric and theory of Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM). This study elaborates these theories in a Public Lecture series which to persuade the students in choosing their concentration of study. The result shows that in term of persuasion effectiveness it is not quite relevant to separate the message and its source. The quality of source is determined by the quality of ...

Menyoal Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) Dan Teori Retorika

OpenAIRE

Perbawaningsih, Yudi

2012-01-01

: Persuasion is a communication process to establish or change attitudes, which can be understood through theory of Rhetoric and theory of Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM). This study elaborates these theories in a Public Lecture series which to persuade the students in choosing their concentration of study. The result shows that in term of persuasion effectiveness it is not quite relevant to separate the message and its source. The quality of source is determined by the quality of the mess...

Existence and uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimator for models with a Kronecker product covariance structure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ros, B.P.; Bijma, F.; de Munck, J.C.; de Gunst, M.C.M.

2016-01-01

This paper deals with multivariate Gaussian models for which the covariance matrix is a Kronecker product of two matrices. We consider maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters, in particular of the covariance matrix. There is no explicit expression for the maximum likelihood estimator

Likelihood ratio model for classification of forensic evidence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zadora, G., E-mail: gzadora@ies.krakow.pl [Institute of Forensic Research, Westerplatte 9, 31-033 Krakow (Poland); Neocleous, T., E-mail: tereza@stats.gla.ac.uk [University of Glasgow, Department of Statistics, 15 University Gardens, Glasgow G12 8QW (United Kingdom)

2009-05-29

One of the problems of analysis of forensic evidence such as glass fragments, is the determination of their use-type category, e.g. does a glass fragment originate from an unknown window or container? Very small glass fragments arise during various accidents and criminal offences, and could be carried on the clothes, shoes and hair of participants. It is therefore necessary to obtain information on their physicochemical composition in order to solve the classification problem. Scanning Electron Microscopy coupled with an Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectrometer and the Glass Refractive Index Measurement method are routinely used in many forensic institutes for the investigation of glass. A natural form of glass evidence evaluation for forensic purposes is the likelihood ratio-LR = p(E|H{sub 1})/p(E|H{sub 2}). The main aim of this paper was to study the performance of LR models for glass object classification which considered one or two sources of data variability, i.e. between-glass-object variability and(or) within-glass-object variability. Within the proposed model a multivariate kernel density approach was adopted for modelling the between-object distribution and a multivariate normal distribution was adopted for modelling within-object distributions. Moreover, a graphical method of estimating the dependence structure was employed to reduce the highly multivariate problem to several lower-dimensional problems. The performed analysis showed that the best likelihood model was the one which allows to include information about between and within-object variability, and with variables derived from elemental compositions measured by SEM-EDX, and refractive values determined before (RI{sub b}) and after (RI{sub a}) the annealing process, in the form of dRI = log{sub 10}|RI{sub a} - RI{sub b}|. This model gave better results than the model with only between-object variability considered. In addition, when dRI and variables derived from elemental compositions were used, this

Likelihood ratio model for classification of forensic evidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zadora, G.; Neocleous, T.

2009-01-01

One of the problems of analysis of forensic evidence such as glass fragments, is the determination of their use-type category, e.g. does a glass fragment originate from an unknown window or container? Very small glass fragments arise during various accidents and criminal offences, and could be carried on the clothes, shoes and hair of participants. It is therefore necessary to obtain information on their physicochemical composition in order to solve the classification problem. Scanning Electron Microscopy coupled with an Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectrometer and the Glass Refractive Index Measurement method are routinely used in many forensic institutes for the investigation of glass. A natural form of glass evidence evaluation for forensic purposes is the likelihood ratio-LR = p(E|H 1 )/p(E|H 2 ). The main aim of this paper was to study the performance of LR models for glass object classification which considered one or two sources of data variability, i.e. between-glass-object variability and(or) within-glass-object variability. Within the proposed model a multivariate kernel density approach was adopted for modelling the between-object distribution and a multivariate normal distribution was adopted for modelling within-object distributions. Moreover, a graphical method of estimating the dependence structure was employed to reduce the highly multivariate problem to several lower-dimensional problems. The performed analysis showed that the best likelihood model was the one which allows to include information about between and within-object variability, and with variables derived from elemental compositions measured by SEM-EDX, and refractive values determined before (RI b ) and after (RI a ) the annealing process, in the form of dRI = log 10 |RI a - RI b |. This model gave better results than the model with only between-object variability considered. In addition, when dRI and variables derived from elemental compositions were used, this model outperformed two other

Counseling Pretreatment and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of Attitude Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Heesacker, Martin

1986-01-01

Results of the application of the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) to a counseling context revealed that more favorable attitudes toward counseling occurred as subjects' ego involvement increased and as intervention quality improved. Counselor credibility affected the degree to which subjects' attitudes reflected argument quality differences.…

Extended likelihood inference in reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martz, H.F. Jr.; Beckman, R.J.; Waller, R.A.

1978-10-01

Extended likelihood methods of inference are developed in which subjective information in the form of a prior distribution is combined with sampling results by means of an extended likelihood function. The extended likelihood function is standardized for use in obtaining extended likelihood intervals. Extended likelihood intervals are derived for the mean of a normal distribution with known variance, the failure-rate of an exponential distribution, and the parameter of a binomial distribution. Extended second-order likelihood methods are developed and used to solve several prediction problems associated with the exponential and binomial distributions. In particular, such quantities as the next failure-time, the number of failures in a given time period, and the time required to observe a given number of failures are predicted for the exponential model with a gamma prior distribution on the failure-rate. In addition, six types of life testing experiments are considered. For the binomial model with a beta prior distribution on the probability of nonsurvival, methods are obtained for predicting the number of nonsurvivors in a given sample size and for predicting the required sample size for observing a specified number of nonsurvivors. Examples illustrate each of the methods developed. Finally, comparisons are made with Bayesian intervals in those cases where these are known to exist

A maximum pseudo-likelihood approach for estimating species trees under the coalescent model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edwards Scott V

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Several phylogenetic approaches have been developed to estimate species trees from collections of gene trees. However, maximum likelihood approaches for estimating species trees under the coalescent model are limited. Although the likelihood of a species tree under the multispecies coalescent model has already been derived by Rannala and Yang, it can be shown that the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE of the species tree (topology, branch lengths, and population sizes from gene trees under this formula does not exist. In this paper, we develop a pseudo-likelihood function of the species tree to obtain maximum pseudo-likelihood estimates (MPE of species trees, with branch lengths of the species tree in coalescent units. Results We show that the MPE of the species tree is statistically consistent as the number M of genes goes to infinity. In addition, the probability that the MPE of the species tree matches the true species tree converges to 1 at rate O(M -1. The simulation results confirm that the maximum pseudo-likelihood approach is statistically consistent even when the species tree is in the anomaly zone. We applied our method, Maximum Pseudo-likelihood for Estimating Species Trees (MP-EST to a mammal dataset. The four major clades found in the MP-EST tree are consistent with those in the Bayesian concatenation tree. The bootstrap supports for the species tree estimated by the MP-EST method are more reasonable than the posterior probability supports given by the Bayesian concatenation method in reflecting the level of uncertainty in gene trees and controversies over the relationship of four major groups of placental mammals. Conclusions MP-EST can consistently estimate the topology and branch lengths (in coalescent units of the species tree. Although the pseudo-likelihood is derived from coalescent theory, and assumes no gene flow or horizontal gene transfer (HGT, the MP-EST method is robust to a small amount of HGT in the

The automatic component of habit in health behavior: habit as cue-contingent automaticity.

Science.gov (United States)

Orbell, Sheina; Verplanken, Bas

2010-07-01

Habit might be usefully characterized as a form of automaticity that involves the association of a cue and a response. Three studies examined habitual automaticity in regard to different aspects of the cue-response relationship characteristic of unhealthy and healthy habits. In each study, habitual automaticity was assessed by the Self-Report Habit Index (SRHI). In Study 1 SRHI scores correlated with attentional bias to smoking cues in a Stroop task. Study 2 examined the ability of a habit cue to elicit an unwanted habit response. In a prospective field study, habitual automaticity in relation to smoking when drinking alcohol in a licensed public house (pub) predicted the likelihood of cigarette-related action slips 2 months later after smoking in pubs had become illegal. In Study 3 experimental group participants formed an implementation intention to floss in response to a specified situational cue. Habitual automaticity of dental flossing was rapidly enhanced compared to controls. The studies provided three different demonstrations of the importance of cues in the automatic operation of habits. Habitual automaticity assessed by the SRHI captured aspects of a habit that go beyond mere frequency or consistency of the behavior. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

Automatic 3d Building Model Generations with Airborne LiDAR Data

Science.gov (United States)

Yastikli, N.; Cetin, Z.

2017-11-01

LiDAR systems become more and more popular because of the potential use for obtaining the point clouds of vegetation and man-made objects on the earth surface in an accurate and quick way. Nowadays, these airborne systems have been frequently used in wide range of applications such as DEM/DSM generation, topographic mapping, object extraction, vegetation mapping, 3 dimensional (3D) modelling and simulation, change detection, engineering works, revision of maps, coastal management and bathymetry. The 3D building model generation is the one of the most prominent applications of LiDAR system, which has the major importance for urban planning, illegal construction monitoring, 3D city modelling, environmental simulation, tourism, security, telecommunication and mobile navigation etc. The manual or semi-automatic 3D building model generation is costly and very time-consuming process for these applications. Thus, an approach for automatic 3D building model generation is needed in a simple and quick way for many studies which includes building modelling. In this study, automatic 3D building models generation is aimed with airborne LiDAR data. An approach is proposed for automatic 3D building models generation including the automatic point based classification of raw LiDAR point cloud. The proposed point based classification includes the hierarchical rules, for the automatic production of 3D building models. The detailed analyses for the parameters which used in hierarchical rules have been performed to improve classification results using different test areas identified in the study area. The proposed approach have been tested in the study area which has partly open areas, forest areas and many types of the buildings, in Zekeriyakoy, Istanbul using the TerraScan module of TerraSolid. The 3D building model was generated automatically using the results of the automatic point based classification. The obtained results of this research on study area verified that automatic 3D

AUTOMATIC 3D BUILDING MODEL GENERATIONS WITH AIRBORNE LiDAR DATA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Yastikli

2017-11-01

Full Text Available LiDAR systems become more and more popular because of the potential use for obtaining the point clouds of vegetation and man-made objects on the earth surface in an accurate and quick way. Nowadays, these airborne systems have been frequently used in wide range of applications such as DEM/DSM generation, topographic mapping, object extraction, vegetation mapping, 3 dimensional (3D modelling and simulation, change detection, engineering works, revision of maps, coastal management and bathymetry. The 3D building model generation is the one of the most prominent applications of LiDAR system, which has the major importance for urban planning, illegal construction monitoring, 3D city modelling, environmental simulation, tourism, security, telecommunication and mobile navigation etc. The manual or semi-automatic 3D building model generation is costly and very time-consuming process for these applications. Thus, an approach for automatic 3D building model generation is needed in a simple and quick way for many studies which includes building modelling. In this study, automatic 3D building models generation is aimed with airborne LiDAR data. An approach is proposed for automatic 3D building models generation including the automatic point based classification of raw LiDAR point cloud. The proposed point based classification includes the hierarchical rules, for the automatic production of 3D building models. The detailed analyses for the parameters which used in hierarchical rules have been performed to improve classification results using different test areas identified in the study area. The proposed approach have been tested in the study area which has partly open areas, forest areas and many types of the buildings, in Zekeriyakoy, Istanbul using the TerraScan module of TerraSolid. The 3D building model was generated automatically using the results of the automatic point based classification. The obtained results of this research on study area verified

Maximum Likelihood Dynamic Factor Modeling for Arbitrary "N" and "T" Using SEM

Science.gov (United States)

Voelkle, Manuel C.; Oud, Johan H. L.; von Oertzen, Timo; Lindenberger, Ulman

2012-01-01

This article has 3 objectives that build on each other. First, we demonstrate how to obtain maximum likelihood estimates for dynamic factor models (the direct autoregressive factor score model) with arbitrary "T" and "N" by means of structural equation modeling (SEM) and compare the approach to existing methods. Second, we go beyond standard time…

CAD-based automatic modeling method for Geant4 geometry model through MCAM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, D.; Nie, F.; Wang, G.; Long, P.; LV, Z.

2013-01-01

The full text of publication follows. Geant4 is a widely used Monte Carlo transport simulation package. Before calculating using Geant4, the calculation model need be established which could be described by using Geometry Description Markup Language (GDML) or C++ language. However, it is time-consuming and error-prone to manually describe the models by GDML. Automatic modeling methods have been developed recently, but there are some problems that exist in most present modeling programs, specially some of them were not accurate or adapted to specifically CAD format. To convert the GDML format models to CAD format accurately, a Geant4 Computer Aided Design (CAD) based modeling method was developed for automatically converting complex CAD geometry model into GDML geometry model. The essence of this method was dealing with CAD model represented with boundary representation (B-REP) and GDML model represented with constructive solid geometry (CSG). At first, CAD model was decomposed to several simple solids which had only one close shell. And then the simple solid was decomposed to convex shell set. Then corresponding GDML convex basic solids were generated by the boundary surfaces getting from the topological characteristic of a convex shell. After the generation of these solids, GDML model was accomplished with series boolean operations. This method was adopted in CAD/Image-based Automatic Modeling Program for Neutronics and Radiation Transport (MCAM), and tested with several models including the examples in Geant4 install package. The results showed that this method could convert standard CAD model accurately, and can be used for Geant4 automatic modeling. (authors)

A Composite Likelihood Inference in Latent Variable Models for Ordinal Longitudinal Responses

Science.gov (United States)

Vasdekis, Vassilis G. S.; Cagnone, Silvia; Moustaki, Irini

2012-01-01

The paper proposes a composite likelihood estimation approach that uses bivariate instead of multivariate marginal probabilities for ordinal longitudinal responses using a latent variable model. The model considers time-dependent latent variables and item-specific random effects to be accountable for the interdependencies of the multivariate…

Analyzing multivariate survival data using composite likelihood and flexible parametric modeling of the hazard functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Jan; Parner, Erik

2010-01-01

In this paper, we model multivariate time-to-event data by composite likelihood of pairwise frailty likelihoods and marginal hazards using natural cubic splines. Both right- and interval-censored data are considered. The suggested approach is applied on two types of family studies using the gamma...

Maximum likelihood estimation and EM algorithm of Copas-like selection model for publication bias correction.

Science.gov (United States)

Ning, Jing; Chen, Yong; Piao, Jin

2017-07-01

Publication bias occurs when the published research results are systematically unrepresentative of the population of studies that have been conducted, and is a potential threat to meaningful meta-analysis. The Copas selection model provides a flexible framework for correcting estimates and offers considerable insight into the publication bias. However, maximizing the observed likelihood under the Copas selection model is challenging because the observed data contain very little information on the latent variable. In this article, we study a Copas-like selection model and propose an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for estimation based on the full likelihood. Empirical simulation studies show that the EM algorithm and its associated inferential procedure performs well and avoids the non-convergence problem when maximizing the observed likelihood. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Discrete Model Reference Adaptive Control System for Automatic Profiling Machine

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Peng Song

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Automatic profiling machine is a movement system that has a high degree of parameter variation and high frequency of transient process, and it requires an accurate control in time. In this paper, the discrete model reference adaptive control system of automatic profiling machine is discussed. Firstly, the model of automatic profiling machine is presented according to the parameters of DC motor. Then the design of the discrete model reference adaptive control is proposed, and the control rules are proven. The results of simulation show that adaptive control system has favorable dynamic performances.

Likelihood inference for unions of interacting discs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Jesper; Helisová, Katarina

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper which discusses likelihood inference or a random set using a germ-grain model, where the individual grains are unobservable edge effects occur, and other complications appear. We consider the case where the grains form a disc process modelled...... is specified with respect to a given marked Poisson model (i.e. a Boolean model). We show how edge effects and other complications can be handled by considering a certain conditional likelihood. Our methodology is illustrated by analyzing Peter Diggle's heather dataset, where we discuss the results...... of simulation-based maximum likelihood inference and the effect of specifying different reference Poisson models....

Neuro-fuzzy system modeling based on automatic fuzzy clustering

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Yuangang TANG; Fuchun SUN; Zengqi SUN

2005-01-01

A neuro-fuzzy system model based on automatic fuzzy clustering is proposed.A hybrid model identification algorithm is also developed to decide the model structure and model parameters.The algorithm mainly includes three parts:1) Automatic fuzzy C-means (AFCM),which is applied to generate fuzzy rules automatically,and then fix on the size of the neuro-fuzzy network,by which the complexity of system design is reducesd greatly at the price of the fitting capability;2) Recursive least square estimation (RLSE).It is used to update the parameters of Takagi-Sugeno model,which is employed to describe the behavior of the system;3) Gradient descent algorithm is also proposed for the fuzzy values according to the back propagation algorithm of neural network.Finally,modeling the dynamical equation of the two-link manipulator with the proposed approach is illustrated to validate the feasibility of the method.

Automatic Flight Controller With Model Inversion

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, George; Smith, G. Allan

1992-01-01

Automatic digital electronic control system based on inverse-model-follower concept being developed for proposed vertical-attitude-takeoff-and-landing airplane. Inverse-model-follower control places inverse mathematical model of dynamics of controlled plant in series with control actuators of controlled plant so response of combination of model and plant to command is unity. System includes feedback to compensate for uncertainties in mathematical model and disturbances imposed from without.

Model-Based Reasoning in Humans Becomes Automatic with Training.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcos Economides

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Model-based and model-free reinforcement learning (RL have been suggested as algorithmic realizations of goal-directed and habitual action strategies. Model-based RL is more flexible than model-free but requires sophisticated calculations using a learnt model of the world. This has led model-based RL to be identified with slow, deliberative processing, and model-free RL with fast, automatic processing. In support of this distinction, it has recently been shown that model-based reasoning is impaired by placing subjects under cognitive load--a hallmark of non-automaticity. Here, using the same task, we show that cognitive load does not impair model-based reasoning if subjects receive prior training on the task. This finding is replicated across two studies and a variety of analysis methods. Thus, task familiarity permits use of model-based reasoning in parallel with other cognitive demands. The ability to deploy model-based reasoning in an automatic, parallelizable fashion has widespread theoretical implications, particularly for the learning and execution of complex behaviors. It also suggests a range of important failure modes in psychiatric disorders.

The phylogenetic likelihood library.

Science.gov (United States)

Flouri, T; Izquierdo-Carrasco, F; Darriba, D; Aberer, A J; Nguyen, L-T; Minh, B Q; Von Haeseler, A; Stamatakis, A

2015-03-01

We introduce the Phylogenetic Likelihood Library (PLL), a highly optimized application programming interface for developing likelihood-based phylogenetic inference and postanalysis software. The PLL implements appropriate data structures and functions that allow users to quickly implement common, error-prone, and labor-intensive tasks, such as likelihood calculations, model parameter as well as branch length optimization, and tree space exploration. The highly optimized and parallelized implementation of the phylogenetic likelihood function and a thorough documentation provide a framework for rapid development of scalable parallel phylogenetic software. By example of two likelihood-based phylogenetic codes we show that the PLL improves the sequential performance of current software by a factor of 2-10 while requiring only 1 month of programming time for integration. We show that, when numerical scaling for preventing floating point underflow is enabled, the double precision likelihood calculations in the PLL are up to 1.9 times faster than those in BEAGLE. On an empirical DNA dataset with 2000 taxa the AVX version of PLL is 4 times faster than BEAGLE (scaling enabled and required). The PLL is available at http://www.libpll.org under the GNU General Public License (GPL). © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

Automatic terrain modeling using transfinite element analysis

KAUST Repository

Collier, Nathan

2010-05-31

An automatic procedure for modeling terrain is developed based on L2 projection-based interpolation of discrete terrain data onto transfinite function spaces. The function space is refined automatically by the use of image processing techniques to detect regions of high error and the flexibility of the transfinite interpolation to add degrees of freedom to these areas. Examples are shown of a section of the Palo Duro Canyon in northern Texas.

Maximum likelihood estimation for Cox's regression model under nested case-control sampling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheike, Thomas Harder; Juul, Anders

2004-01-01

-like growth factor I was associated with ischemic heart disease. The study was based on a population of 3784 Danes and 231 cases of ischemic heart disease where controls were matched on age and gender. We illustrate the use of the MLE for these data and show how the maximum likelihood framework can be used......Nested case-control sampling is designed to reduce the costs of large cohort studies. It is important to estimate the parameters of interest as efficiently as possible. We present a new maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for nested case-control sampling in the context of Cox's proportional hazards...... model. The MLE is computed by the EM-algorithm, which is easy to implement in the proportional hazards setting. Standard errors are estimated by a numerical profile likelihood approach based on EM aided differentiation. The work was motivated by a nested case-control study that hypothesized that insulin...

Estimation of Financial Agent-Based Models with Simulated Maximum Likelihood

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kukačka, Jiří; Baruník, Jozef

2017-01-01

Roč. 85, č. 1 (2017), s. 21-45 ISSN 0165-1889 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : heterogeneous agent model, * simulated maximum likelihood * switching Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Finance Impact factor: 1.000, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/kukacka-0478481.pdf

Obtaining reliable Likelihood Ratio tests from simulated likelihood functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Laura Mørch

It is standard practice by researchers and the default option in many statistical programs to base test statistics for mixed models on simulations using asymmetric draws (e.g. Halton draws). This paper shows that when the estimated likelihood functions depend on standard deviations of mixed param...

Automatic relative RPC image model bias compensation through hierarchical image matching for improving DEM quality

Science.gov (United States)

Noh, Myoung-Jong; Howat, Ian M.

2018-02-01

The quality and efficiency of automated Digital Elevation Model (DEM) extraction from stereoscopic satellite imagery is critically dependent on the accuracy of the sensor model used for co-locating pixels between stereo-pair images. In the absence of ground control or manual tie point selection, errors in the sensor models must be compensated with increased matching search-spaces, increasing both the computation time and the likelihood of spurious matches. Here we present an algorithm for automatically determining and compensating the relative bias in Rational Polynomial Coefficients (RPCs) between stereo-pairs utilizing hierarchical, sub-pixel image matching in object space. We demonstrate the algorithm using a suite of image stereo-pairs from multiple satellites over a range stereo-photogrammetrically challenging polar terrains. Besides providing a validation of the effectiveness of the algorithm for improving DEM quality, experiments with prescribed sensor model errors yield insight into the dependence of DEM characteristics and quality on relative sensor model bias. This algorithm is included in the Surface Extraction through TIN-based Search-space Minimization (SETSM) DEM extraction software package, which is the primary software used for the U.S. National Science Foundation ArcticDEM and Reference Elevation Model of Antarctica (REMA) products.

The Elaboration Likelihood Model: Implications for the Practice of School Psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Petty, Richard E.; Heesacker, Martin; Hughes, Jan N.

1997-01-01

Reviews a contemporary theory of attitude change, the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) of persuasion, and addresses its relevance to school psychology. Claims that a key postulate of ELM is that attitude change results from thoughtful (central route) or nonthoughtful (peripheral route) processes. Illustrations of ELM's utility for school…

Marginal Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Item Response Models in R

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew S. Johnson

2007-02-01

Full Text Available Item response theory (IRT models are a class of statistical models used by researchers to describe the response behaviors of individuals to a set of categorically scored items. The most common IRT models can be classified as generalized linear fixed- and/or mixed-effect models. Although IRT models appear most often in the psychological testing literature, researchers in other fields have successfully utilized IRT-like models in a wide variety of applications. This paper discusses the three major methods of estimation in IRT and develops R functions utilizing the built-in capabilities of the R environment to find the marginal maximum likelihood estimates of the generalized partial credit model. The currently available R packages ltm is also discussed.

R and D on automatic modeling methods for Monte Carlo codes FLUKA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Dianxi; Hu Liqin; Wang Guozhong; Zhao Zijia; Nie Fanzhi; Wu Yican; Long Pengcheng

2013-01-01

FLUKA is a fully integrated particle physics Monte Carlo simulation package. It is necessary to create the geometry models before calculation. However, it is time- consuming and error-prone to describe the geometry models manually. This study developed an automatic modeling method which could automatically convert computer-aided design (CAD) geometry models into FLUKA models. The conversion program was integrated into CAD/image-based automatic modeling program for nuclear and radiation transport simulation (MCAM). Its correctness has been demonstrated. (authors)

WE-AB-BRA-05: Fully Automatic Segmentation of Male Pelvic Organs On CT Without Manual Intervention

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Y; Lian, J; Chen, R; Wang, A; Shen, D

2015-01-01

Purpose: We aim to develop a fully automatic tool for accurate contouring of major male pelvic organs in CT images for radiotherapy without any manual initialization, yet still achieving superior performance than the existing tools. Methods: A learning-based 3D deformable shape model was developed for automatic contouring. Specifically, we utilized a recent machine learning method, random forest, to jointly learn both image regressor and classifier for each organ. In particular, the image regressor is trained to predict the 3D displacement from each vertex of the 3D shape model towards the organ boundary based on the local image appearance around the location of this vertex. The predicted 3D displacements are then used to drive the 3D shape model towards the target organ. Once the shape model is deformed close to the target organ, it is further refined by an organ likelihood map estimated by the learned classifier. As the organ likelihood map provides good guideline for the organ boundary, the precise contouring Result could be achieved, by deforming the 3D shape model locally to fit boundaries in the organ likelihood map. Results: We applied our method to 29 previously-treated prostate cancer patients, each with one planning CT scan. Compared with manually delineated pelvic organs, our method obtains overlap ratios of 85.2%±3.74% for the prostate, 94.9%±1.62% for the bladder, and 84.7%±1.97% for the rectum, respectively. Conclusion: This work demonstrated feasibility of a novel machine-learning based approach for accurate and automatic contouring of major male pelvic organs. It shows the potential to replace the time-consuming and inconsistent manual contouring in the clinic. Also, compared with the existing works, our method is more accurate and also efficient since it does not require any manual intervention, such as manual landmark placement. Moreover, our method obtained very similar contouring results as the clinical experts. Project is partially support

WE-AB-BRA-05: Fully Automatic Segmentation of Male Pelvic Organs On CT Without Manual Intervention

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gao, Y; Lian, J; Chen, R; Wang, A; Shen, D [Univ North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States)

2015-06-15

Purpose: We aim to develop a fully automatic tool for accurate contouring of major male pelvic organs in CT images for radiotherapy without any manual initialization, yet still achieving superior performance than the existing tools. Methods: A learning-based 3D deformable shape model was developed for automatic contouring. Specifically, we utilized a recent machine learning method, random forest, to jointly learn both image regressor and classifier for each organ. In particular, the image regressor is trained to predict the 3D displacement from each vertex of the 3D shape model towards the organ boundary based on the local image appearance around the location of this vertex. The predicted 3D displacements are then used to drive the 3D shape model towards the target organ. Once the shape model is deformed close to the target organ, it is further refined by an organ likelihood map estimated by the learned classifier. As the organ likelihood map provides good guideline for the organ boundary, the precise contouring Result could be achieved, by deforming the 3D shape model locally to fit boundaries in the organ likelihood map. Results: We applied our method to 29 previously-treated prostate cancer patients, each with one planning CT scan. Compared with manually delineated pelvic organs, our method obtains overlap ratios of 85.2%±3.74% for the prostate, 94.9%±1.62% for the bladder, and 84.7%±1.97% for the rectum, respectively. Conclusion: This work demonstrated feasibility of a novel machine-learning based approach for accurate and automatic contouring of major male pelvic organs. It shows the potential to replace the time-consuming and inconsistent manual contouring in the clinic. Also, compared with the existing works, our method is more accurate and also efficient since it does not require any manual intervention, such as manual landmark placement. Moreover, our method obtained very similar contouring results as the clinical experts. Project is partially support

Likelihood analysis of the minimal AMSB model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bagnaschi, E.; Weiglein, G. [DESY, Hamburg (Germany); Borsato, M.; Chobanova, V.; Lucio, M.; Santos, D.M. [Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Sakurai, K. [Institute for Particle Physics Phenomenology, University of Durham, Science Laboratories, Department of Physics, Durham (United Kingdom); University of Warsaw, Faculty of Physics, Institute of Theoretical Physics, Warsaw (Poland); Buchmueller, O.; Citron, M.; Costa, J.C.; Richards, A. [Imperial College, High Energy Physics Group, Blackett Laboratory, London (United Kingdom); Cavanaugh, R. [Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, Batavia, IL (United States); University of Illinois at Chicago, Physics Department, Chicago, IL (United States); De Roeck, A. [Experimental Physics Department, CERN, Geneva (Switzerland); Antwerp University, Wilrijk (Belgium); Dolan, M.J. [School of Physics, University of Melbourne, ARC Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Terascale, Melbourne (Australia); Ellis, J.R. [King' s College London, Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, London (United Kingdom); CERN, Theoretical Physics Department, Geneva (Switzerland); Flaecher, H. [University of Bristol, H.H. Wills Physics Laboratory, Bristol (United Kingdom); Heinemeyer, S. [Campus of International Excellence UAM+CSIC, Madrid (Spain); Instituto de Fisica Teorica UAM-CSIC, Madrid (Spain); Instituto de Fisica de Cantabria (CSIC-UC), Cantabria (Spain); Isidori, G. [Physik-Institut, Universitaet Zuerich, Zurich (Switzerland); Luo, F. [Kavli IPMU (WPI), UTIAS, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Chiba (Japan); Olive, K.A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, Minneapolis, MN (United States)

2017-04-15

We perform a likelihood analysis of the minimal anomaly-mediated supersymmetry-breaking (mAMSB) model using constraints from cosmology and accelerator experiments. We find that either a wino-like or a Higgsino-like neutralino LSP, χ{sup 0}{sub 1}, may provide the cold dark matter (DM), both with similar likelihoods. The upper limit on the DM density from Planck and other experiments enforces m{sub χ{sup 0}{sub 1}} 0) but the scalar mass m{sub 0} is poorly constrained. In the wino-LSP case, m{sub 3/2} is constrained to about 900 TeV and m{sub χ{sup 0}{sub 1}} to 2.9 ± 0.1 TeV, whereas in the Higgsino-LSP case m{sub 3/2} has just a lower limit >or similar 650 TeV (>or similar 480 TeV) and m{sub χ{sup 0}{sub 1}} is constrained to 1.12 (1.13) ± 0.02 TeV in the μ > 0 (μ < 0) scenario. In neither case can the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, (g-2){sub μ}, be improved significantly relative to its Standard Model (SM) value, nor do flavour measurements constrain the model significantly, and there are poor prospects for discovering supersymmetric particles at the LHC, though there are some prospects for direct DM detection. On the other hand, if the χ{sup 0}{sub 1} contributes only a fraction of the cold DM density, future LHC E{sub T}-based searches for gluinos, squarks and heavier chargino and neutralino states as well as disappearing track searches in the wino-like LSP region will be relevant, and interference effects enable BR(B{sub s,d} → μ{sup +}μ{sup -}) to agree with the data better than in the SM in the case of wino-like DM with μ > 0. (orig.)

PASSENGER TRAFFIC MOVEMENT MODELLING BY THE CELLULAR-AUTOMAT APPROACH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Mikhaylovskaya

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The mathematical model of passenger traffic movement developed on the basis of the cellular-automat approach is considered. The program realization of the cellular-automat model of pedastrians streams movement in pedestrian subways at presence of obstacles, at subway structure narrowing is presented. The optimum distances between the obstacles and the angle of subway structure narrowing providing pedastrians stream safe movement and traffic congestion occurance are determined.

Elaboration Likelihood Model and an Analysis of the Contexts of Its Application

OpenAIRE

Aslıhan Kıymalıoğlu

2014-01-01

Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM), which supports the existence of two routes to persuasion: central and peripheral routes, has been one of the major models on persuasion. As the number of studies in the Turkish literature on ELM is limited, a detailed explanation of the model together with a comprehensive literature review was considered to be contributory for this gap. The findings of the review reveal that the model was mostly used in marketing and advertising researches, that the concept...

Likelihood Inference of Nonlinear Models Based on a Class of Flexible Skewed Distributions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuedong Chen

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with the issue of the likelihood inference for nonlinear models with a flexible skew-t-normal (FSTN distribution, which is proposed within a general framework of flexible skew-symmetric (FSS distributions by combining with skew-t-normal (STN distribution. In comparison with the common skewed distributions such as skew normal (SN, and skew-t (ST as well as scale mixtures of skew normal (SMSN, the FSTN distribution can accommodate more flexibility and robustness in the presence of skewed, heavy-tailed, especially multimodal outcomes. However, for this distribution, a usual approach of maximum likelihood estimates based on EM algorithm becomes unavailable and an alternative way is to return to the original Newton-Raphson type method. In order to improve the estimation as well as the way for confidence estimation and hypothesis test for the parameters of interest, a modified Newton-Raphson iterative algorithm is presented in this paper, based on profile likelihood for nonlinear regression models with FSTN distribution, and, then, the confidence interval and hypothesis test are also developed. Furthermore, a real example and simulation are conducted to demonstrate the usefulness and the superiority of our approach.

The Role of Item Models in Automatic Item Generation

Science.gov (United States)

Gierl, Mark J.; Lai, Hollis

2012-01-01

Automatic item generation represents a relatively new but rapidly evolving research area where cognitive and psychometric theories are used to produce tests that include items generated using computer technology. Automatic item generation requires two steps. First, test development specialists create item models, which are comparable to templates…

Accelerated maximum likelihood parameter estimation for stochastic biochemical systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daigle Bernie J

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A prerequisite for the mechanistic simulation of a biochemical system is detailed knowledge of its kinetic parameters. Despite recent experimental advances, the estimation of unknown parameter values from observed data is still a bottleneck for obtaining accurate simulation results. Many methods exist for parameter estimation in deterministic biochemical systems; methods for discrete stochastic systems are less well developed. Given the probabilistic nature of stochastic biochemical models, a natural approach is to choose parameter values that maximize the probability of the observed data with respect to the unknown parameters, a.k.a. the maximum likelihood parameter estimates (MLEs. MLE computation for all but the simplest models requires the simulation of many system trajectories that are consistent with experimental data. For models with unknown parameters, this presents a computational challenge, as the generation of consistent trajectories can be an extremely rare occurrence. Results We have developed Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximization with Modified Cross-Entropy Method (MCEM2: an accelerated method for calculating MLEs that combines advances in rare event simulation with a computationally efficient version of the Monte Carlo expectation-maximization (MCEM algorithm. Our method requires no prior knowledge regarding parameter values, and it automatically provides a multivariate parameter uncertainty estimate. We applied the method to five stochastic systems of increasing complexity, progressing from an analytically tractable pure-birth model to a computationally demanding model of yeast-polarization. Our results demonstrate that MCEM2 substantially accelerates MLE computation on all tested models when compared to a stand-alone version of MCEM. Additionally, we show how our method identifies parameter values for certain classes of models more accurately than two recently proposed computationally efficient methods

Application of the Elaboration Likelihood Model of Attitude Change to Assertion Training.

Science.gov (United States)

Ernst, John M.; Heesacker, Martin

1993-01-01

College students (n=113) participated in study comparing effects of elaboration likelihood model (ELM) based assertion workshop with those of typical assertion workshop. ELM-based workshop was significantly better at producing favorable attitude change, greater intention to act assertively, and more favorable evaluations of workshop content.…

ModelMage: a tool for automatic model generation, selection and management.

Science.gov (United States)

Flöttmann, Max; Schaber, Jörg; Hoops, Stephan; Klipp, Edda; Mendes, Pedro

2008-01-01

Mathematical modeling of biological systems usually involves implementing, simulating, and discriminating several candidate models that represent alternative hypotheses. Generating and managing these candidate models is a tedious and difficult task and can easily lead to errors. ModelMage is a tool that facilitates management of candidate models. It is designed for the easy and rapid development, generation, simulation, and discrimination of candidate models. The main idea of the program is to automatically create a defined set of model alternatives from a single master model. The user provides only one SBML-model and a set of directives from which the candidate models are created by leaving out species, modifiers or reactions. After generating models the software can automatically fit all these models to the data and provides a ranking for model selection, in case data is available. In contrast to other model generation programs, ModelMage aims at generating only a limited set of models that the user can precisely define. ModelMage uses COPASI as a simulation and optimization engine. Thus, all simulation and optimization features of COPASI are readily incorporated. ModelMage can be downloaded from http://sysbio.molgen.mpg.de/modelmage and is distributed as free software.

Evaluation of Smoking Prevention Television Messages Based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model

Science.gov (United States)

Flynn, Brian S.; Worden, John K.; Bunn, Janice Yanushka; Connolly, Scott W.; Dorwaldt, Anne L.

2011-01-01

Progress in reducing youth smoking may depend on developing improved methods to communicate with higher risk youth. This study explored the potential of smoking prevention messages based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) to address these needs. Structured evaluations of 12 smoking prevention messages based on three strategies derived from…

Risk analysis of Leksell Gamma Knife Model C with automatic positioning system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goetsch, Steven J.

2002-01-01

Purpose: This study was conducted to evaluate the decrease in risk from misadministration of the new Leksell Gamma Knife Model C with Automatic Positioning System compared with previous models. Methods and Materials: Elekta Instruments, A.B. of Stockholm has introduced a new computer-controlled Leksell Gamma Knife Model C which uses motor-driven trunnions to reposition the patient between isocenters (shots) without human intervention. Previous models required the operators to manually set coordinates from a printed list, permitting opportunities for coordinate transposition, incorrect helmet size, incorrect treatment times, missing shots, or repeated shots. Results: A risk analysis was conducted between craniotomy involving hospital admission and outpatient Gamma Knife radiosurgery. A report of the Institute of Medicine of the National Academies dated November 29, 1999 estimated that medical errors kill between 44,000 and 98,000 people each year in the United States. Another report from the National Nosocomial Infections Surveillance System estimates that 2.1 million nosocomial infections occur annually in the United States in acute care hospitals alone, with 31 million total admissions. Conclusions: All medical procedures have attendant risks of morbidity and possibly mortality. Each patient should be counseled as to the risk of adverse effects as well as the likelihood of good results for alternative treatment strategies. This paper seeks to fill a gap in the existing medical literature, which has a paucity of data involving risk estimates for stereotactic radiosurgery

Composite likelihood estimation of demographic parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Garrigan Daniel

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Most existing likelihood-based methods for fitting historical demographic models to DNA sequence polymorphism data to do not scale feasibly up to the level of whole-genome data sets. Computational economies can be achieved by incorporating two forms of pseudo-likelihood: composite and approximate likelihood methods. Composite likelihood enables scaling up to large data sets because it takes the product of marginal likelihoods as an estimator of the likelihood of the complete data set. This approach is especially useful when a large number of genomic regions constitutes the data set. Additionally, approximate likelihood methods can reduce the dimensionality of the data by summarizing the information in the original data by either a sufficient statistic, or a set of statistics. Both composite and approximate likelihood methods hold promise for analyzing large data sets or for use in situations where the underlying demographic model is complex and has many parameters. This paper considers a simple demographic model of allopatric divergence between two populations, in which one of the population is hypothesized to have experienced a founder event, or population bottleneck. A large resequencing data set from human populations is summarized by the joint frequency spectrum, which is a matrix of the genomic frequency spectrum of derived base frequencies in two populations. A Bayesian Metropolis-coupled Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMCMC method for parameter estimation is developed that uses both composite and likelihood methods and is applied to the three different pairwise combinations of the human population resequence data. The accuracy of the method is also tested on data sets sampled from a simulated population model with known parameters. Results The Bayesian MCMCMC method also estimates the ratio of effective population size for the X chromosome versus that of the autosomes. The method is shown to estimate, with reasonable

Maximum likelihood approach for several stochastic volatility models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Camprodon, Jordi; Perelló, Josep

2012-01-01

Volatility measures the amplitude of price fluctuations. Despite it being one of the most important quantities in finance, volatility is not directly observable. Here we apply a maximum likelihood method which assumes that price and volatility follow a two-dimensional diffusion process where volatility is the stochastic diffusion coefficient of the log-price dynamics. We apply this method to the simplest versions of the expOU, the OU and the Heston stochastic volatility models and we study their performance in terms of the log-price probability, the volatility probability, and its Mean First-Passage Time. The approach has some predictive power on the future returns amplitude by only knowing the current volatility. The assumed models do not consider long-range volatility autocorrelation and the asymmetric return-volatility cross-correlation but the method still yields very naturally these two important stylized facts. We apply the method to different market indices and with a good performance in all cases. (paper)

Semi-Automatic Modelling of Building FAÇADES with Shape Grammars Using Historic Building Information Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Dore, C.; Murphy, M.

2013-02-01

This paper outlines a new approach for generating digital heritage models from laser scan or photogrammetric data using Historic Building Information Modelling (HBIM). HBIM is a plug-in for Building Information Modelling (BIM) software that uses parametric library objects and procedural modelling techniques to automate the modelling stage. The HBIM process involves a reverse engineering solution whereby parametric interactive objects representing architectural elements are mapped onto laser scan or photogrammetric survey data. A library of parametric architectural objects has been designed from historic manuscripts and architectural pattern books. These parametric objects were built using an embedded programming language within the ArchiCAD BIM software called Geometric Description Language (GDL). Procedural modelling techniques have been implemented with the same language to create a parametric building façade which automatically combines library objects based on architectural rules and proportions. Different configurations of the façade are controlled by user parameter adjustment. The automatically positioned elements of the façade can be subsequently refined using graphical editing while overlaying the model with orthographic imagery. Along with this semi-automatic method for generating façade models, manual plotting of library objects can also be used to generate a BIM model from survey data. After the 3D model has been completed conservation documents such as plans, sections, elevations and 3D views can be automatically generated for conservation projects.

ATTITUDE-CHANGE FOLLOWING PERSUASIVE COMMUNICATION - INTEGRATING SOCIAL JUDGMENT THEORY AND THE ELABORATION LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NARCIS (Netherlands)

SIERO, FW; DOOSJE, BJ

1993-01-01

An experiment was conducted to examine the influence of the perceived extremity of a message and motivation to elaborate upon the process of persuasion. The first goal was to test a model of attitude change relating Social Judgment Theory to the Elaboration Likelihood Model. The second objective was

Estimation of stochastic frontier models with fixed-effects through Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Emvalomatis, G.; Stefanou, S.E.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

2011-01-01

Estimation of nonlinear fixed-effects models is plagued by the incidental parameters problem. This paper proposes a procedure for choosing appropriate densities for integrating the incidental parameters from the likelihood function in a general context. The densities are based on priors that are

[Modeling and implementation method for the automatic biochemistry analyzer control system].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Dong; Ge, Wan-cheng; Song, Chun-lin; Wang, Yun-guang

2009-03-01

In this paper the system structure The automatic biochemistry analyzer is a necessary instrument for clinical diagnostics. First of is analyzed. The system problems description and the fundamental principles for dispatch are brought forward. Then this text puts emphasis on the modeling for the automatic biochemistry analyzer control system. The objects model and the communications model are put forward. Finally, the implementation method is designed. It indicates that the system based on the model has good performance.

AUTOMATIC TEXTURE MAPPING OF ARCHITECTURAL AND ARCHAEOLOGICAL 3D MODELS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. P. Kersten

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Today, detailed, complete and exact 3D models with photo-realistic textures are increasingly demanded for numerous applications in architecture and archaeology. Manual texture mapping of 3D models by digital photographs with software packages, such as Maxon Cinema 4D, Autodesk 3Ds Max or Maya, still requires a complex and time-consuming workflow. So, procedures for automatic texture mapping of 3D models are in demand. In this paper two automatic procedures are presented. The first procedure generates 3D surface models with textures by web services, while the second procedure textures already existing 3D models with the software tmapper. The program tmapper is based on the Multi Layer 3D image (ML3DImage algorithm and developed in the programming language C++. The studies showing that the visibility analysis using the ML3DImage algorithm is not sufficient to obtain acceptable results of automatic texture mapping. To overcome the visibility problem the Point Cloud Painter algorithm in combination with the Z-buffer-procedure will be applied in the future.

Automatic Texture Mapping of Architectural and Archaeological 3d Models

Science.gov (United States)

Kersten, T. P.; Stallmann, D.

2012-07-01

Today, detailed, complete and exact 3D models with photo-realistic textures are increasingly demanded for numerous applications in architecture and archaeology. Manual texture mapping of 3D models by digital photographs with software packages, such as Maxon Cinema 4D, Autodesk 3Ds Max or Maya, still requires a complex and time-consuming workflow. So, procedures for automatic texture mapping of 3D models are in demand. In this paper two automatic procedures are presented. The first procedure generates 3D surface models with textures by web services, while the second procedure textures already existing 3D models with the software tmapper. The program tmapper is based on the Multi Layer 3D image (ML3DImage) algorithm and developed in the programming language C++. The studies showing that the visibility analysis using the ML3DImage algorithm is not sufficient to obtain acceptable results of automatic texture mapping. To overcome the visibility problem the Point Cloud Painter algorithm in combination with the Z-buffer-procedure will be applied in the future.

Inter Genre Similarity Modelling For Automatic Music Genre Classification

OpenAIRE

Bagci, Ulas; Erzin, Engin

2009-01-01

Music genre classification is an essential tool for music information retrieval systems and it has been finding critical applications in various media platforms. Two important problems of the automatic music genre classification are feature extraction and classifier design. This paper investigates inter-genre similarity modelling (IGS) to improve the performance of automatic music genre classification. Inter-genre similarity information is extracted over the mis-classified feature population....

Maximum likelihood estimation for integrated diffusion processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Baltazar-Larios, Fernando; Sørensen, Michael

We propose a method for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of parameters in diffusion models when the data is a discrete time sample of the integral of the process, while no direct observations of the process itself are available. The data are, moreover, assumed to be contaminated...... EM-algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in the diffusion model. As part of the algorithm, we use a recent simple method for approximate simulation of diffusion bridges. In simulation studies for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and the CIR process the proposed method works...... by measurement errors. Integrated volatility is an example of this type of observations. Another example is ice-core data on oxygen isotopes used to investigate paleo-temperatures. The data can be viewed as incomplete observations of a model with a tractable likelihood function. Therefore we propose a simulated...

Automatic generation of Fortran programs for algebraic simulation models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schopf, W.; Rexer, G.; Ruehle, R.

1978-04-01

This report documents a generator program by which econometric simulation models formulated in an application-orientated language can be transformed automatically in a Fortran program. Thus the model designer is able to build up, test and modify models without the need of a Fortran programmer. The development of a computer model is therefore simplified and shortened appreciably; in chapter 1-3 of this report all rules are presented for the application of the generator to the model design. Algebraic models including exogeneous and endogeneous time series variables, lead and lag function can be generated. In addition, to these language elements, Fortran sequences can be applied to the formulation of models in the case of complex model interrelations. Automatically the generated model is a module of the program system RSYST III and is therefore able to exchange input and output data with the central data bank of the system and in connection with the method library modules can be used to handle planning problems. (orig.) [de

Automatization of hydrodynamic modelling in a Floreon+ system

Science.gov (United States)

Ronovsky, Ales; Kuchar, Stepan; Podhoranyi, Michal; Vojtek, David

2017-07-01

The paper describes fully automatized hydrodynamic modelling as a part of the Floreon+ system. The main purpose of hydrodynamic modelling in the disaster management is to provide an accurate overview of the hydrological situation in a given river catchment. Automatization of the process as a web service could provide us with immediate data based on extreme weather conditions, such as heavy rainfall, without the intervention of an expert. Such a service can be used by non scientific users such as fire-fighter operators or representatives of a military service organizing evacuation during floods or river dam breaks. The paper describes the whole process beginning with a definition of a schematization necessary for hydrodynamic model, gathering of necessary data and its processing for a simulation, the model itself and post processing of a result and visualization on a web service. The process is demonstrated on a real data collected during floods in our Moravian-Silesian region in 2010.

Likelihood functions for the analysis of single-molecule binned photon sequences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gopich, Irina V., E-mail: irinag@niddk.nih.gov [Laboratory of Chemical Physics, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892 (United States)

2012-03-02

Graphical abstract: Folding of a protein with attached fluorescent dyes, the underlying conformational trajectory of interest, and the observed binned photon trajectory. Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A sequence of photon counts can be analyzed using a likelihood function. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The exact likelihood function for a two-state kinetic model is provided. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Several approximations are considered for an arbitrary kinetic model. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Improved likelihood functions are obtained to treat sequences of FRET efficiencies. - Abstract: We consider the analysis of a class of experiments in which the number of photons in consecutive time intervals is recorded. Sequence of photon counts or, alternatively, of FRET efficiencies can be studied using likelihood-based methods. For a kinetic model of the conformational dynamics and state-dependent Poisson photon statistics, the formalism to calculate the exact likelihood that this model describes such sequences of photons or FRET efficiencies is developed. Explicit analytic expressions for the likelihood function for a two-state kinetic model are provided. The important special case when conformational dynamics are so slow that at most a single transition occurs in a time bin is considered. By making a series of approximations, we eventually recover the likelihood function used in hidden Markov models. In this way, not only is insight gained into the range of validity of this procedure, but also an improved likelihood function can be obtained.

Model study of an automatic controller of the IBR-2 pulsed reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pepelyshev, Yu.N.; Popov, A.K.

2007-01-01

For calculation of power transients in the IBR-2 reactor a special mathematical model of dynamics taking into account the discontinuous jump of reactivity by an automatic controller with the step motor is created. In the model the nonlinear dependence of the energy of power pulse on the reactivity and the influence of warming up of the reactor on the reactivity by means of introduction of a nonlinear feedback 'power-pulse energy - reactivity' are taken into account. With the help of the model the transients of relative deviation of power-pulse energy are calculated at various (random, mixed and regular) reactivity disturbances at the reactor mean power 1.475 MW. It is shown that to improve the quality of processes the choice of such regular values of parameters of the automatic controller is expedient, at which the least effect of smoothing of a signal acting on an automatic controller and the least speed of an automatic controller are provided, and the reduction of efficiency of one step of the automatic controller and introduction of a five-percent dead space are also expedient

Using suggestion to model different types of automatic writing.

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, E; Mehta, M A; Oakley, D A; Guilmette, D N; Gabay, A; Halligan, P W; Deeley, Q

2014-05-01

Our sense of self includes awareness of our thoughts and movements, and our control over them. This feeling can be altered or lost in neuropsychiatric disorders as well as in phenomena such as "automatic writing" whereby writing is attributed to an external source. Here, we employed suggestion in highly hypnotically suggestible participants to model various experiences of automatic writing during a sentence completion task. Results showed that the induction of hypnosis, without additional suggestion, was associated with a small but significant reduction of control, ownership, and awareness for writing. Targeted suggestions produced a double dissociation between thought and movement components of writing, for both feelings of control and ownership, and additionally, reduced awareness of writing. Overall, suggestion produced selective alterations in the control, ownership, and awareness of thought and motor components of writing, thus enabling key aspects of automatic writing, observed across different clinical and cultural settings, to be modelled. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Automatic paper sliceform design from 3D solid models.

Science.gov (United States)

Le-Nguyen, Tuong-Vu; Low, Kok-Lim; Ruiz, Conrado; Le, Sang N

2013-11-01

A paper sliceform or lattice-style pop-up is a form of papercraft that uses two sets of parallel paper patches slotted together to make a foldable structure. The structure can be folded flat, as well as fully opened (popped-up) to make the two sets of patches orthogonal to each other. Automatic design of paper sliceforms is still not supported by existing computational models and remains a challenge. We propose novel geometric formulations of valid paper sliceform designs that consider the stability, flat-foldability and physical realizability of the designs. Based on a set of sufficient construction conditions, we also present an automatic algorithm for generating valid sliceform designs that closely depict the given 3D solid models. By approximating the input models using a set of generalized cylinders, our method significantly reduces the search space for stable and flat-foldable sliceforms. To ensure the physical realizability of the designs, the algorithm automatically generates slots or slits on the patches such that no two cycles embedded in two different patches are interlocking each other. This guarantees local pairwise assembility between patches, which is empirically shown to lead to global assembility. Our method has been demonstrated on a number of example models, and the output designs have been successfully made into real paper sliceforms.

The Elaboration Likelihood Model and Proxemic Violations as Peripheral Cues to Information Processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Eaves, Michael

This paper provides a literature review of the elaboration likelihood model (ELM) as applied in persuasion. Specifically, the paper addresses distraction with regard to effects on persuasion. In addition, the application of proxemic violations as peripheral cues in message processing is discussed. Finally, the paper proposes to shed new light on…

Do Judgments of Learning Predict Automatic Influences of Memory?

Science.gov (United States)

Undorf, Monika; Böhm, Simon; Cüpper, Lutz

2016-01-01

Current memory theories generally assume that memory performance reflects both recollection and automatic influences of memory. Research on people's predictions about the likelihood of remembering recently studied information on a memory test, that is, on judgments of learning (JOLs), suggests that both magnitude and resolution of JOLs are linked…

Next Generation Model 8800 Automatic TLD Reader

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Velbeck, K.J.; Streetz, K.L.; Rotunda, J.E.

1999-01-01

BICRON NE has developed an advanced version of the Model 8800 Automatic TLD Reader. Improvements in the reader include a Windows NT TM -based operating system and a Pentium microprocessor for the host controller, a servo-controlled transport, a VGA display, mouse control, and modular assembly. This high capacity reader will automatically read fourteen hundred TLD Cards in one loading. Up to four elements in a card can be heated without mechanical contact, using hot nitrogen gas. Improvements in performance include an increased throughput rate and more precise card positioning. Operation is simplified through easy-to-read Windows-type screens. Glow curves are displayed graphically along with light intensity, temperature, and channel scaling. Maintenance and diagnostic aids are included for easier troubleshooting. A click of a mouse will command actions that are displayed in easy-to-understand English words. Available options include an internal 90 Sr irradiator, automatic TLD calibration, and two different extremity monitoring modes. Results from testing include reproducibility, reader stability, linearity, detection threshold, residue, primary power supply voltage and frequency, transient voltage, drop testing, and light leakage. (author)

Deliberation versus automaticity in decision making: Which presentation format features facilitate automatic decision making?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anke Soellner

2013-05-01

Full Text Available The idea of automatic decision making approximating normatively optimal decisions without necessitating much cognitive effort is intriguing. Whereas recent findings support the notion that such fast, automatic processes explain empirical data well, little is known about the conditions under which such processes are selected rather than more deliberate stepwise strategies. We investigate the role of the format of information presentation, focusing explicitly on the ease of information acquisition and its influence on information integration processes. In a probabilistic inference task, the standard matrix employed in prior research was contrasted with a newly created map presentation format and additional variations of both presentation formats. Across three experiments, a robust presentation format effect emerged: Automatic decision making was more prevalent in the matrix (with high information accessibility, whereas sequential decision strategies prevailed when the presentation format demanded more information acquisition effort. Further scrutiny of the effect showed that it is not driven by the presentation format as such, but rather by the extent of information search induced by a format. Thus, if information is accessible with minimal need for information search, information integration is likely to proceed in a perception-like, holistic manner. In turn, a moderate demand for information search decreases the likelihood of behavior consistent with the assumptions of automatic decision making.

Likelihood inference for unions of interacting discs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Jesper; Helisova, K.

2010-01-01

This is probably the first paper which discusses likelihood inference for a random set using a germ-grain model, where the individual grains are unobservable, edge effects occur and other complications appear. We consider the case where the grains form a disc process modelled by a marked point...... process, where the germs are the centres and the marks are the associated radii of the discs. We propose to use a recent parametric class of interacting disc process models, where the minimal sufficient statistic depends on various geometric properties of the random set, and the density is specified......-based maximum likelihood inference and the effect of specifying different reference Poisson models....

Multivariate normal maximum likelihood with both ordinal and continuous variables, and data missing at random.

Science.gov (United States)

Pritikin, Joshua N; Brick, Timothy R; Neale, Michael C

2018-04-01

A novel method for the maximum likelihood estimation of structural equation models (SEM) with both ordinal and continuous indicators is introduced using a flexible multivariate probit model for the ordinal indicators. A full information approach ensures unbiased estimates for data missing at random. Exceeding the capability of prior methods, up to 13 ordinal variables can be included before integration time increases beyond 1 s per row. The method relies on the axiom of conditional probability to split apart the distribution of continuous and ordinal variables. Due to the symmetry of the axiom, two similar methods are available. A simulation study provides evidence that the two similar approaches offer equal accuracy. A further simulation is used to develop a heuristic to automatically select the most computationally efficient approach. Joint ordinal continuous SEM is implemented in OpenMx, free and open-source software.

The behavior of the likelihood ratio test for testing missingness

OpenAIRE

Hens, Niel; Aerts, Marc; Molenberghs, Geert; Thijs, Herbert

2003-01-01

To asses the sensitivity of conclusions to model choices in the context of selection models for non-random dropout, one can oppose the different missing mechanisms to each other; e.g. by the likelihood ratio tests. The finite sample behavior of the null distribution and the power of the likelihood ratio test is studied under a variety of missingness mechanisms. missing data; sensitivity analysis; likelihood ratio test; missing mechanisms

Automatic physical inference with information maximizing neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Charnock, Tom; Lavaux, Guilhem; Wandelt, Benjamin D.

2018-04-01

Compressing large data sets to a manageable number of summaries that are informative about the underlying parameters vastly simplifies both frequentist and Bayesian inference. When only simulations are available, these summaries are typically chosen heuristically, so they may inadvertently miss important information. We introduce a simulation-based machine learning technique that trains artificial neural networks to find nonlinear functionals of data that maximize Fisher information: information maximizing neural networks (IMNNs). In test cases where the posterior can be derived exactly, likelihood-free inference based on automatically derived IMNN summaries produces nearly exact posteriors, showing that these summaries are good approximations to sufficient statistics. In a series of numerical examples of increasing complexity and astrophysical relevance we show that IMNNs are robustly capable of automatically finding optimal, nonlinear summaries of the data even in cases where linear compression fails: inferring the variance of Gaussian signal in the presence of noise, inferring cosmological parameters from mock simulations of the Lyman-α forest in quasar spectra, and inferring frequency-domain parameters from LISA-like detections of gravitational waveforms. In this final case, the IMNN summary outperforms linear data compression by avoiding the introduction of spurious likelihood maxima. We anticipate that the automatic physical inference method described in this paper will be essential to obtain both accurate and precise cosmological parameter estimates from complex and large astronomical data sets, including those from LSST and Euclid.

Markov random field based automatic image alignment for electron tomography.

Science.gov (United States)

Amat, Fernando; Moussavi, Farshid; Comolli, Luis R; Elidan, Gal; Downing, Kenneth H; Horowitz, Mark

2008-03-01

We present a method for automatic full-precision alignment of the images in a tomographic tilt series. Full-precision automatic alignment of cryo electron microscopy images has remained a difficult challenge to date, due to the limited electron dose and low image contrast. These facts lead to poor signal to noise ratio (SNR) in the images, which causes automatic feature trackers to generate errors, even with high contrast gold particles as fiducial features. To enable fully automatic alignment for full-precision reconstructions, we frame the problem probabilistically as finding the most likely particle tracks given a set of noisy images, using contextual information to make the solution more robust to the noise in each image. To solve this maximum likelihood problem, we use Markov Random Fields (MRF) to establish the correspondence of features in alignment and robust optimization for projection model estimation. The resulting algorithm, called Robust Alignment and Projection Estimation for Tomographic Reconstruction, or RAPTOR, has not needed any manual intervention for the difficult datasets we have tried, and has provided sub-pixel alignment that is as good as the manual approach by an expert user. We are able to automatically map complete and partial marker trajectories and thus obtain highly accurate image alignment. Our method has been applied to challenging cryo electron tomographic datasets with low SNR from intact bacterial cells, as well as several plastic section and X-ray datasets.

Automatic Model Generation Framework for Computational Simulation of Cochlear Implantation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mangado Lopez, Nerea; Ceresa, Mario; Duchateau, Nicolas

2016-01-01

. To address such a challenge, we propose an automatic framework for the generation of patient-specific meshes for finite element modeling of the implanted cochlea. First, a statistical shape model is constructed from high-resolution anatomical μCT images. Then, by fitting the statistical model to a patient......'s CT image, an accurate model of the patient-specific cochlea anatomy is obtained. An algorithm based on the parallel transport frame is employed to perform the virtual insertion of the cochlear implant. Our automatic framework also incorporates the surrounding bone and nerve fibers and assigns......Recent developments in computational modeling of cochlear implantation are promising to study in silico the performance of the implant before surgery. However, creating a complete computational model of the patient's anatomy while including an external device geometry remains challenging...

Accuracy of maximum likelihood estimates of a two-state model in single-molecule FRET

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gopich, Irina V. [Laboratory of Chemical Physics, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland 20892 (United States)

2015-01-21

Photon sequences from single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) experiments can be analyzed using a maximum likelihood method. Parameters of the underlying kinetic model (FRET efficiencies of the states and transition rates between conformational states) are obtained by maximizing the appropriate likelihood function. In addition, the errors (uncertainties) of the extracted parameters can be obtained from the curvature of the likelihood function at the maximum. We study the standard deviations of the parameters of a two-state model obtained from photon sequences with recorded colors and arrival times. The standard deviations can be obtained analytically in a special case when the FRET efficiencies of the states are 0 and 1 and in the limiting cases of fast and slow conformational dynamics. These results are compared with the results of numerical simulations. The accuracy and, therefore, the ability to predict model parameters depend on how fast the transition rates are compared to the photon count rate. In the limit of slow transitions, the key parameters that determine the accuracy are the number of transitions between the states and the number of independent photon sequences. In the fast transition limit, the accuracy is determined by the small fraction of photons that are correlated with their neighbors. The relative standard deviation of the relaxation rate has a “chevron” shape as a function of the transition rate in the log-log scale. The location of the minimum of this function dramatically depends on how well the FRET efficiencies of the states are separated.

Automatic discovery of the communication network topology for building a supercomputer model

Science.gov (United States)

Sobolev, Sergey; Stefanov, Konstantin; Voevodin, Vadim

2016-10-01

The Research Computing Center of Lomonosov Moscow State University is developing the Octotron software suite for automatic monitoring and mitigation of emergency situations in supercomputers so as to maximize hardware reliability. The suite is based on a software model of the supercomputer. The model uses a graph to describe the computing system components and their interconnections. One of the most complex components of a supercomputer that needs to be included in the model is its communication network. This work describes the proposed approach for automatically discovering the Ethernet communication network topology in a supercomputer and its description in terms of the Octotron model. This suite automatically detects computing nodes and switches, collects information about them and identifies their interconnections. The application of this approach is demonstrated on the "Lomonosov" and "Lomonosov-2" supercomputers.

Fast Appearance Modeling for Automatic Primary Video Object Segmentation.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Jiong; Price, Brian; Shen, Xiaohui; Lin, Zhe; Yuan, Junsong

2016-02-01

Automatic segmentation of the primary object in a video clip is a challenging problem as there is no prior knowledge of the primary object. Most existing techniques thus adapt an iterative approach for foreground and background appearance modeling, i.e., fix the appearance model while optimizing the segmentation and fix the segmentation while optimizing the appearance model. However, these approaches may rely on good initialization and can be easily trapped in local optimal. In addition, they are usually time consuming for analyzing videos. To address these limitations, we propose a novel and efficient appearance modeling technique for automatic primary video object segmentation in the Markov random field (MRF) framework. It embeds the appearance constraint as auxiliary nodes and edges in the MRF structure, and can optimize both the segmentation and appearance model parameters simultaneously in one graph cut. The extensive experimental evaluations validate the superiority of the proposed approach over the state-of-the-art methods, in both efficiency and effectiveness.

A Full-Body Layered Deformable Model for Automatic Model-Based Gait Recognition

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Haiping; Plataniotis, Konstantinos N.; Venetsanopoulos, Anastasios N.

2007-12-01

This paper proposes a full-body layered deformable model (LDM) inspired by manually labeled silhouettes for automatic model-based gait recognition from part-level gait dynamics in monocular video sequences. The LDM is defined for the fronto-parallel gait with 22 parameters describing the human body part shapes (widths and lengths) and dynamics (positions and orientations). There are four layers in the LDM and the limbs are deformable. Algorithms for LDM-based human body pose recovery are then developed to estimate the LDM parameters from both manually labeled and automatically extracted silhouettes, where the automatic silhouette extraction is through a coarse-to-fine localization and extraction procedure. The estimated LDM parameters are used for model-based gait recognition by employing the dynamic time warping for matching and adopting the combination scheme in AdaBoost.M2. While the existing model-based gait recognition approaches focus primarily on the lower limbs, the estimated LDM parameters enable us to study full-body model-based gait recognition by utilizing the dynamics of the upper limbs, the shoulders and the head as well. In the experiments, the LDM-based gait recognition is tested on gait sequences with differences in shoe-type, surface, carrying condition and time. The results demonstrate that the recognition performance benefits from not only the lower limb dynamics, but also the dynamics of the upper limbs, the shoulders and the head. In addition, the LDM can serve as an analysis tool for studying factors affecting the gait under various conditions.

Straight line fitting and predictions: On a marginal likelihood approach to linear regression and errors-in-variables models

Science.gov (United States)

Christiansen, Bo

2015-04-01

Linear regression methods are without doubt the most used approaches to describe and predict data in the physical sciences. They are often good first order approximations and they are in general easier to apply and interpret than more advanced methods. However, even the properties of univariate regression can lead to debate over the appropriateness of various models as witnessed by the recent discussion about climate reconstruction methods. Before linear regression is applied important choices have to be made regarding the origins of the noise terms and regarding which of the two variables under consideration that should be treated as the independent variable. These decisions are often not easy to make but they may have a considerable impact on the results. We seek to give a unified probabilistic - Bayesian with flat priors - treatment of univariate linear regression and prediction by taking, as starting point, the general errors-in-variables model (Christiansen, J. Clim., 27, 2014-2031, 2014). Other versions of linear regression can be obtained as limits of this model. We derive the likelihood of the model parameters and predictands of the general errors-in-variables model by marginalizing over the nuisance parameters. The resulting likelihood is relatively simple and easy to analyze and calculate. The well known unidentifiability of the errors-in-variables model is manifested as the absence of a well-defined maximum in the likelihood. However, this does not mean that probabilistic inference can not be made; the marginal likelihoods of model parameters and the predictands have, in general, well-defined maxima. We also include a probabilistic version of classical calibration and show how it is related to the errors-in-variables model. The results are illustrated by an example from the coupling between the lower stratosphere and the troposphere in the Northern Hemisphere winter.

The elaboration likelihood model and communication about food risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Frewer, L J; Howard, C; Hedderley, D; Shepherd, R

1997-12-01

Factors such as hazard type and source credibility have been identified as important in the establishment of effective strategies for risk communication. The elaboration likelihood model was adapted to investigate the potential impact of hazard type, information source, and persuasive content of information on individual engagement in elaborative, or thoughtful, cognitions about risk messages. One hundred sixty respondents were allocated to one of eight experimental groups, and the effects of source credibility, persuasive content of information and hazard type were systematically varied. The impact of the different factors on beliefs about the information and elaborative processing examined. Low credibility was particularly important in reducing risk perceptions, although persuasive content and hazard type were also influential in determining whether elaborative processing occurred.

Elaboration Likelihood Model and an Analysis of the Contexts of Its Application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aslıhan Kıymalıoğlu

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM, which supports the existence of two routes to persuasion: central and peripheral routes, has been one of the major models on persuasion. As the number of studies in the Turkish literature on ELM is limited, a detailed explanation of the model together with a comprehensive literature review was considered to be contributory for this gap. The findings of the review reveal that the model was mostly used in marketing and advertising researches, that the concept most frequently used in elaboration process was involvement, and that argument quality and endorser credibility were the factors most often employed in measuring their effect on the dependant variables. The review provides valuable insights as it presents a holistic view of the model and the variables used in the model.

Analysis of hourly crash likelihood using unbalanced panel data mixed logit model and real-time driving environmental big data.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Feng; Chen, Suren; Ma, Xiaoxiang

2018-06-01

Driving environment, including road surface conditions and traffic states, often changes over time and influences crash probability considerably. It becomes stretched for traditional crash frequency models developed in large temporal scales to capture the time-varying characteristics of these factors, which may cause substantial loss of critical driving environmental information on crash prediction. Crash prediction models with refined temporal data (hourly records) are developed to characterize the time-varying nature of these contributing factors. Unbalanced panel data mixed logit models are developed to analyze hourly crash likelihood of highway segments. The refined temporal driving environmental data, including road surface and traffic condition, obtained from the Road Weather Information System (RWIS), are incorporated into the models. Model estimation results indicate that the traffic speed, traffic volume, curvature and chemically wet road surface indicator are better modeled as random parameters. The estimation results of the mixed logit models based on unbalanced panel data show that there are a number of factors related to crash likelihood on I-25. Specifically, weekend indicator, November indicator, low speed limit and long remaining service life of rutting indicator are found to increase crash likelihood, while 5-am indicator and number of merging ramps per lane per mile are found to decrease crash likelihood. The study underscores and confirms the unique and significant impacts on crash imposed by the real-time weather, road surface, and traffic conditions. With the unbalanced panel data structure, the rich information from real-time driving environmental big data can be well incorporated. Copyright © 2018 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Penalized Maximum Likelihood Estimation for univariate normal mixture distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ridolfi, A.; Idier, J.

2001-01-01

Due to singularities of the likelihood function, the maximum likelihood approach for the estimation of the parameters of normal mixture models is an acknowledged ill posed optimization problem. Ill posedness is solved by penalizing the likelihood function. In the Bayesian framework, it amounts to incorporating an inverted gamma prior in the likelihood function. A penalized version of the EM algorithm is derived, which is still explicit and which intrinsically assures that the estimates are not singular. Numerical evidence of the latter property is put forward with a test

Efficient Detection of Repeating Sites to Accelerate Phylogenetic Likelihood Calculations.

Science.gov (United States)

Kobert, K; Stamatakis, A; Flouri, T

2017-03-01

The phylogenetic likelihood function (PLF) is the major computational bottleneck in several applications of evolutionary biology such as phylogenetic inference, species delimitation, model selection, and divergence times estimation. Given the alignment, a tree and the evolutionary model parameters, the likelihood function computes the conditional likelihood vectors for every node of the tree. Vector entries for which all input data are identical result in redundant likelihood operations which, in turn, yield identical conditional values. Such operations can be omitted for improving run-time and, using appropriate data structures, reducing memory usage. We present a fast, novel method for identifying and omitting such redundant operations in phylogenetic likelihood calculations, and assess the performance improvement and memory savings attained by our method. Using empirical and simulated data sets, we show that a prototype implementation of our method yields up to 12-fold speedups and uses up to 78% less memory than one of the fastest and most highly tuned implementations of the PLF currently available. Our method is generic and can seamlessly be integrated into any phylogenetic likelihood implementation. [Algorithms; maximum likelihood; phylogenetic likelihood function; phylogenetics]. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

Maximum-likelihood model averaging to profile clustering of site types across discrete linear sequences.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhang Zhang

2009-06-01

Full Text Available A major analytical challenge in computational biology is the detection and description of clusters of specified site types, such as polymorphic or substituted sites within DNA or protein sequences. Progress has been stymied by a lack of suitable methods to detect clusters and to estimate the extent of clustering in discrete linear sequences, particularly when there is no a priori specification of cluster size or cluster count. Here we derive and demonstrate a maximum likelihood method of hierarchical clustering. Our method incorporates a tripartite divide-and-conquer strategy that models sequence heterogeneity, delineates clusters, and yields a profile of the level of clustering associated with each site. The clustering model may be evaluated via model selection using the Akaike Information Criterion, the corrected Akaike Information Criterion, and the Bayesian Information Criterion. Furthermore, model averaging using weighted model likelihoods may be applied to incorporate model uncertainty into the profile of heterogeneity across sites. We evaluated our method by examining its performance on a number of simulated datasets as well as on empirical polymorphism data from diverse natural alleles of the Drosophila alcohol dehydrogenase gene. Our method yielded greater power for the detection of clustered sites across a breadth of parameter ranges, and achieved better accuracy and precision of estimation of clusters, than did the existing empirical cumulative distribution function statistics.

Automatic generation of anatomic characteristics from cerebral aneurysm surface models.

Science.gov (United States)

Neugebauer, M; Lawonn, K; Beuing, O; Preim, B

2013-03-01

Computer-aided research on cerebral aneurysms often depends on a polygonal mesh representation of the vessel lumen. To support a differentiated, anatomy-aware analysis, it is necessary to derive anatomic descriptors from the surface model. We present an approach on automatic decomposition of the adjacent vessels into near- and far-vessel regions and computation of the axial plane. We also exemplarily present two applications of the geometric descriptors: automatic computation of a unique vessel order and automatic viewpoint selection. Approximation methods are employed to analyze vessel cross-sections and the vessel area profile along the centerline. The resulting transition zones between near- and far- vessel regions are used as input for an optimization process to compute the axial plane. The unique vessel order is defined via projection into the plane space of the axial plane. The viewing direction for the automatic viewpoint selection is derived from the normal vector of the axial plane. The approach was successfully applied to representative data sets exhibiting a broad variability with respect to the configuration of their adjacent vessels. A robustness analysis showed that the automatic decomposition is stable against noise. A survey with 4 medical experts showed a broad agreement with the automatically defined transition zones. Due to the general nature of the underlying algorithms, this approach is applicable to most of the likely aneurysm configurations in the cerebral vasculature. Additional geometric information obtained during automatic decomposition can support correction in case the automatic approach fails. The resulting descriptors can be used for various applications in the field of visualization, exploration and analysis of cerebral aneurysms.

Maintaining symmetry of simulated likelihood functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Laura Mørch

This paper suggests solutions to two different types of simulation errors related to Quasi-Monte Carlo integration. Likelihood functions which depend on standard deviations of mixed parameters are symmetric in nature. This paper shows that antithetic draws preserve this symmetry and thereby...... improves precision substantially. Another source of error is that models testing away mixing dimensions must replicate the relevant dimensions of the quasi-random draws in the simulation of the restricted likelihood. These simulation errors are ignored in the standard estimation procedures used today...

Path Tracking Control of Automatic Parking Cloud Model considering the Influence of Time Delay

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yiding Hua

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper establishes the kinematic model of the automatic parking system and analyzes the kinematic constraints of the vehicle. Furthermore, it solves the problem where the traditional automatic parking system model fails to take into account the time delay. Firstly, based on simulating calculation, the influence of time delay on the dynamic trajectory of a vehicle in the automatic parking system is analyzed under the transverse distance Dlateral between different target spaces. Secondly, on the basis of cloud model, this paper utilizes the tracking control of an intelligent path closer to human intelligent behavior to further study the Cloud Generator-based parking path tracking control method and construct a vehicle path tracking control model. Moreover, tracking and steering control effects of the model are verified through simulation analysis. Finally, the effectiveness and timeliness of automatic parking controller in the aspect of path tracking are tested through a real vehicle experiment.

PROCOV: maximum likelihood estimation of protein phylogeny under covarion models and site-specific covarion pattern analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang Huai-Chun

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The covarion hypothesis of molecular evolution holds that selective pressures on a given amino acid or nucleotide site are dependent on the identity of other sites in the molecule that change throughout time, resulting in changes of evolutionary rates of sites along the branches of a phylogenetic tree. At the sequence level, covarion-like evolution at a site manifests as conservation of nucleotide or amino acid states among some homologs where the states are not conserved in other homologs (or groups of homologs. Covarion-like evolution has been shown to relate to changes in functions at sites in different clades, and, if ignored, can adversely affect the accuracy of phylogenetic inference. Results PROCOV (protein covarion analysis is a software tool that implements a number of previously proposed covarion models of protein evolution for phylogenetic inference in a maximum likelihood framework. Several algorithmic and implementation improvements in this tool over previous versions make computationally expensive tree searches with covarion models more efficient and analyses of large phylogenomic data sets tractable. PROCOV can be used to identify covarion sites by comparing the site likelihoods under the covarion process to the corresponding site likelihoods under a rates-across-sites (RAS process. Those sites with the greatest log-likelihood difference between a 'covarion' and an RAS process were found to be of functional or structural significance in a dataset of bacterial and eukaryotic elongation factors. Conclusion Covarion models implemented in PROCOV may be especially useful for phylogenetic estimation when ancient divergences between sequences have occurred and rates of evolution at sites are likely to have changed over the tree. It can also be used to study lineage-specific functional shifts in protein families that result in changes in the patterns of site variability among subtrees.

Optimized Large-scale CMB Likelihood and Quadratic Maximum Likelihood Power Spectrum Estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Gjerløw, E.; Colombo, L. P. L.; Eriksen, H. K.; Górski, K. M.; Gruppuso, A.; Jewell, J. B.; Plaszczynski, S.; Wehus, I. K.

2015-11-01

We revisit the problem of exact cosmic microwave background (CMB) likelihood and power spectrum estimation with the goal of minimizing computational costs through linear compression. This idea was originally proposed for CMB purposes by Tegmark et al., and here we develop it into a fully functioning computational framework for large-scale polarization analysis, adopting WMAP as a working example. We compare five different linear bases (pixel space, harmonic space, noise covariance eigenvectors, signal-to-noise covariance eigenvectors, and signal-plus-noise covariance eigenvectors) in terms of compression efficiency, and find that the computationally most efficient basis is the signal-to-noise eigenvector basis, which is closely related to the Karhunen-Loeve and Principal Component transforms, in agreement with previous suggestions. For this basis, the information in 6836 unmasked WMAP sky map pixels can be compressed into a smaller set of 3102 modes, with a maximum error increase of any single multipole of 3.8% at ℓ ≤ 32 and a maximum shift in the mean values of a joint distribution of an amplitude-tilt model of 0.006σ. This compression reduces the computational cost of a single likelihood evaluation by a factor of 5, from 38 to 7.5 CPU seconds, and it also results in a more robust likelihood by implicitly regularizing nearly degenerate modes. Finally, we use the same compression framework to formulate a numerically stable and computationally efficient variation of the Quadratic Maximum Likelihood implementation, which requires less than 3 GB of memory and 2 CPU minutes per iteration for ℓ ≤ 32, rendering low-ℓ QML CMB power spectrum analysis fully tractable on a standard laptop.

Simplified likelihood for the re-interpretation of public CMS results

CERN Document Server

The CMS Collaboration

2017-01-01

In this note, a procedure for the construction of simplified likelihoods for the re-interpretation of the results of CMS searches for new physics is presented. The procedure relies on the use of a reduced set of information on the background models used in these searches which can readily be provided by the CMS collaboration. A toy example is used to demonstrate the procedure and its accuracy in reproducing the full likelihood for setting limits in models for physics beyond the standard model. Finally, two representative searches from the CMS collaboration are used to demonstrate the validity of the simplified likelihood approach under realistic conditions.

Applying a Weighted Maximum Likelihood Latent Trait Estimator to the Generalized Partial Credit Model

Science.gov (United States)

Penfield, Randall D.; Bergeron, Jennifer M.

2005-01-01

This article applies a weighted maximum likelihood (WML) latent trait estimator to the generalized partial credit model (GPCM). The relevant equations required to obtain the WML estimator using the Newton-Raphson algorithm are presented, and a simulation study is described that compared the properties of the WML estimator to those of the maximum…

Source and Message Factors in Persuasion: A Reply to Stiff's Critique of the Elaboration Likelihood Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Petty, Richard E.; And Others

1987-01-01

Answers James Stiff's criticism of the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) of persuasion. Corrects certain misperceptions of the ELM and criticizes Stiff's meta-analysis that compares ELM predictions with those derived from Kahneman's elastic capacity model. Argues that Stiff's presentation of the ELM and the conclusions he draws based on the data…

The design of control algorithm for automatic start-up model of HWRR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo Wenqi

1990-01-01

The design of control algorithm for automatic start-up model of HWRR (Heavy Water Research Reactor), the calculation of μ value and the application of digital compensator are described. Finally The flow diagram of the automatic start-up and digital compensator program for HWRR are given

Fully automatic adjoints: a robust and efficient mechanism for generating adjoint ocean models

Science.gov (United States)

Ham, D. A.; Farrell, P. E.; Funke, S. W.; Rognes, M. E.

2012-04-01

The problem of generating and maintaining adjoint models is sufficiently difficult that typically only the most advanced and well-resourced community ocean models achieve it. There are two current technologies which each suffer from their own limitations. Algorithmic differentiation, also called automatic differentiation, is employed by models such as the MITGCM [2] and the Alfred Wegener Institute model FESOM [3]. This technique is very difficult to apply to existing code, and requires a major initial investment to prepare the code for automatic adjoint generation. AD tools may also have difficulty with code employing modern software constructs such as derived data types. An alternative is to formulate the adjoint differential equation and to discretise this separately. This approach, known as the continuous adjoint and employed in ROMS [4], has the disadvantage that two different model code bases must be maintained and manually kept synchronised as the model develops. The discretisation of the continuous adjoint is not automatically consistent with that of the forward model, producing an additional source of error. The alternative presented here is to formulate the flow model in the high level language UFL (Unified Form Language) and to automatically generate the model using the software of the FEniCS project. In this approach it is the high level code specification which is differentiated, a task very similar to the formulation of the continuous adjoint [5]. However since the forward and adjoint models are generated automatically, the difficulty of maintaining them vanishes and the software engineering process is therefore robust. The scheduling and execution of the adjoint model, including the application of an appropriate checkpointing strategy is managed by libadjoint [1]. In contrast to the conventional algorithmic differentiation description of a model as a series of primitive mathematical operations, libadjoint employs a new abstraction of the simulation

Likelihood analysis of parity violation in the compound nucleus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bowman, D.; Sharapov, E.

1993-01-01

We discuss the determination of the root mean-squared matrix element of the parity-violating interaction between compound-nuclear states using likelihood analysis. We briefly review the relevant features of the statistical model of the compound nucleus and the formalism of likelihood analysis. We then discuss the application of likelihood analysis to data on panty-violating longitudinal asymmetries. The reliability of the extracted value of the matrix element and errors assigned to the matrix element is stressed. We treat the situations where the spins of the p-wave resonances are not known and known using experimental data and Monte Carlo techniques. We conclude that likelihood analysis provides a reliable way to determine M and its confidence interval. We briefly discuss some problems associated with the normalization of the likelihood function

GIS Data Based Automatic High-Fidelity 3D Road Network Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jie; Shen, Yuzhong

2011-01-01

3D road models are widely used in many computer applications such as racing games and driving simulations_ However, almost all high-fidelity 3D road models were generated manually by professional artists at the expense of intensive labor. There are very few existing methods for automatically generating 3D high-fidelity road networks, especially those existing in the real world. This paper presents a novel approach thai can automatically produce 3D high-fidelity road network models from real 2D road GIS data that mainly contain road. centerline in formation. The proposed method first builds parametric representations of the road centerlines through segmentation and fitting . A basic set of civil engineering rules (e.g., cross slope, superelevation, grade) for road design are then selected in order to generate realistic road surfaces in compliance with these rules. While the proposed method applies to any types of roads, this paper mainly addresses automatic generation of complex traffic interchanges and intersections which are the most sophisticated elements in the road networks

Phylogenetic analysis using parsimony and likelihood methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Z

1996-02-01

The assumptions underlying the maximum-parsimony (MP) method of phylogenetic tree reconstruction were intuitively examined by studying the way the method works. Computer simulations were performed to corroborate the intuitive examination. Parsimony appears to involve very stringent assumptions concerning the process of sequence evolution, such as constancy of substitution rates between nucleotides, constancy of rates across nucleotide sites, and equal branch lengths in the tree. For practical data analysis, the requirement of equal branch lengths means similar substitution rates among lineages (the existence of an approximate molecular clock), relatively long interior branches, and also few species in the data. However, a small amount of evolution is neither a necessary nor a sufficient requirement of the method. The difficulties involved in the application of current statistical estimation theory to tree reconstruction were discussed, and it was suggested that the approach proposed by Felsenstein (1981, J. Mol. Evol. 17: 368-376) for topology estimation, as well as its many variations and extensions, differs fundamentally from the maximum likelihood estimation of a conventional statistical parameter. Evidence was presented showing that the Felsenstein approach does not share the asymptotic efficiency of the maximum likelihood estimator of a statistical parameter. Computer simulations were performed to study the probability that MP recovers the true tree under a hierarchy of models of nucleotide substitution; its performance relative to the likelihood method was especially noted. The results appeared to support the intuitive examination of the assumptions underlying MP. When a simple model of nucleotide substitution was assumed to generate data, the probability that MP recovers the true topology could be as high as, or even higher than, that for the likelihood method. When the assumed model became more complex and realistic, e.g., when substitution rates were

Automatic Detection and Resolution of Lexical Ambiguity in Process Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pittke, F.; Leopold, H.; Mendling, J.

2015-01-01

System-related engineering tasks are often conducted using process models. In this context, it is essential that these models do not contain structural or terminological inconsistencies. To this end, several automatic analysis techniques have been proposed to support quality assurance. While formal

Maximum likelihood fitting of FROC curves under an initial-detection-and-candidate-analysis model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edwards, Darrin C.; Kupinski, Matthew A.; Metz, Charles E.; Nishikawa, Robert M.

2002-01-01

We have developed a model for FROC curve fitting that relates the observer's FROC performance not to the ROC performance that would be obtained if the observer's responses were scored on a per image basis, but rather to a hypothesized ROC performance that the observer would obtain in the task of classifying a set of 'candidate detections' as positive or negative. We adopt the assumptions of the Bunch FROC model, namely that the observer's detections are all mutually independent, as well as assumptions qualitatively similar to, but different in nature from, those made by Chakraborty in his AFROC scoring methodology. Under the assumptions of our model, we show that the observer's FROC performance is a linearly scaled version of the candidate analysis ROC curve, where the scaling factors are just given by the FROC operating point coordinates for detecting initial candidates. Further, we show that the likelihood function of the model parameters given observational data takes on a simple form, and we develop a maximum likelihood method for fitting a FROC curve to this data. FROC and AFROC curves are produced for computer vision observer datasets and compared with the results of the AFROC scoring method. Although developed primarily with computer vision schemes in mind, we hope that the methodology presented here will prove worthy of further study in other applications as well

Automatic 3D modeling of the urban landscape

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Esteban, I.; Dijk, J.; Groen, F.

2010-01-01

In this paper we present a fully automatic system for building 3D models of urban areas at the street level. We propose a novel approach for the accurate estimation of the scale consistent camera pose given two previous images. We employ a new method for global optimization and use a novel sampling

Bayesian Inference using Neural Net Likelihood Models for Protein Secondary Structure Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seong-Gon Kim

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Several techniques such as Neural Networks, Genetic Algorithms, Decision Trees and other statistical or heuristic methods have been used to approach the complex non-linear task of predicting Alpha-helicies, Beta-sheets and Turns of a proteins secondary structure in the past. This project introduces a new machine learning method by using an offline trained Multilayered Perceptrons (MLP as the likelihood models within a Bayesian Inference framework to predict secondary structures proteins. Varying window sizes are used to extract neighboring amino acid information and passed back and forth between the Neural Net models and the Bayesian Inference process until there is a convergence of the posterior secondary structure probability.

Music genre classification via likelihood fusion from multiple feature models

Science.gov (United States)

Shiu, Yu; Kuo, C.-C. J.

2005-01-01

Music genre provides an efficient way to index songs in a music database, and can be used as an effective means to retrieval music of a similar type, i.e. content-based music retrieval. A new two-stage scheme for music genre classification is proposed in this work. At the first stage, we examine a couple of different features, construct their corresponding parametric models (e.g. GMM and HMM) and compute their likelihood functions to yield soft classification results. In particular, the timbre, rhythm and temporal variation features are considered. Then, at the second stage, these soft classification results are integrated to result in a hard decision for final music genre classification. Experimental results are given to demonstrate the performance of the proposed scheme.

Development of a cerebral circulation model for the automatic control of brain physiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Utsuki, T

2015-01-01

In various clinical guidelines of brain injury, intracranial pressure (ICP), cerebral blood flow (CBF) and brain temperature (BT) are essential targets for precise management for brain resuscitation. In addition, the integrated automatic control of BT, ICP, and CBF is required for improving therapeutic effects and reducing medical costs and staff burden. Thus, a new model of cerebral circulation was developed in this study for integrative automatic control. With this model, the CBF and cerebral perfusion pressure of a normal adult male were regionally calculated according to cerebrovascular structure, blood viscosity, blood distribution, CBF autoregulation, and ICP. The analysis results were consistent with physiological knowledge already obtained with conventional studies. Therefore, the developed model is potentially available for the integrative control of the physiological state of the brain as a reference model of an automatic control system, or as a controlled object in various control simulations.

Automatic smoothing parameter selection in GAMLSS with an application to centile estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Rigby, Robert A; Stasinopoulos, Dimitrios M

2014-08-01

A method for automatic selection of the smoothing parameters in a generalised additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) model is introduced. The method uses a P-spline representation of the smoothing terms to express them as random effect terms with an internal (or local) maximum likelihood estimation on the predictor scale of each distribution parameter to estimate its smoothing parameters. This provides a fast method for estimating multiple smoothing parameters. The method is applied to centile estimation where all four parameters of a distribution for the response variable are modelled as smooth functions of a transformed explanatory variable x This allows smooth modelling of the location, scale, skewness and kurtosis parameters of the response variable distribution as functions of x. © The Author(s) 2013 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Examining Sex Differences in Altering Attitudes About Rape: A Test of the Elaboration Likelihood Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Heppner, Mary J.; And Others

1995-01-01

Intervention sought to improve first-year college students' attitudes about rape. Used the Elaboration Likelihood Model to examine men's and women's attitude change process. Found numerous sex differences in ways men and women experienced and changed during and after intervention. Women's attitude showed more lasting change while men's was more…

Creation of voxel-based models for paediatric dosimetry from automatic segmentation methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Acosta, O.; Li, R.; Ourselin, S.; Caon, M.

2006-01-01

Full text: The first computational models representing human anatomy were mathematical phantoms, but still far from accurate representations of human body. These models have been used with radiation transport codes (Monte Carlo) to estimate organ doses from radiological procedures. Although new medical imaging techniques have recently allowed the construction of voxel-based models based on the real anatomy, few children models from individual CT or MRI data have been reported [1,3]. For pediatric dosimetry purposes, a large range of voxel models by ages is required since scaling the anatomy from existing models is not sufficiently accurate. The small number of models available arises from the small number of CT or MRI data sets of children available and the long amount of time required to segment the data sets. The existing models have been constructed by manual segmentation slice by slice and using simple thresholding techniques. In medical image segmentation, considerable difficulties appear when applying classical techniques like thresholding or simple edge detection. Until now, any evidence of more accurate or near-automatic methods used in construction of child voxel models exists. We aim to construct a range of pediatric voxel models, integrating automatic or semi-automatic 3D segmentation techniques. In this paper we present the first stage of this work using pediatric CT data.

Bias correction in the hierarchical likelihood approach to the analysis of multivariate survival data.

Science.gov (United States)

Jeon, Jihyoun; Hsu, Li; Gorfine, Malka

2012-07-01

Frailty models are useful for measuring unobserved heterogeneity in risk of failures across clusters, providing cluster-specific risk prediction. In a frailty model, the latent frailties shared by members within a cluster are assumed to act multiplicatively on the hazard function. In order to obtain parameter and frailty variate estimates, we consider the hierarchical likelihood (H-likelihood) approach (Ha, Lee and Song, 2001. Hierarchical-likelihood approach for frailty models. Biometrika 88, 233-243) in which the latent frailties are treated as "parameters" and estimated jointly with other parameters of interest. We find that the H-likelihood estimators perform well when the censoring rate is low, however, they are substantially biased when the censoring rate is moderate to high. In this paper, we propose a simple and easy-to-implement bias correction method for the H-likelihood estimators under a shared frailty model. We also extend the method to a multivariate frailty model, which incorporates complex dependence structure within clusters. We conduct an extensive simulation study and show that the proposed approach performs very well for censoring rates as high as 80%. We also illustrate the method with a breast cancer data set. Since the H-likelihood is the same as the penalized likelihood function, the proposed bias correction method is also applicable to the penalized likelihood estimators.

An efficient implementation of maximum likelihood identification of LTI state-space models by local gradient search

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bergboer, N.H.; Verdult, V.; Verhaegen, M.H.G.

2002-01-01

We present a numerically efficient implementation of the nonlinear least squares and maximum likelihood identification of multivariable linear time-invariant (LTI) state-space models. This implementation is based on a local parameterization of the system and a gradient search in the resulting

Observation Likelihood Model Design and Failure Recovery Scheme toward Reliable Localization of Mobile Robots

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chang-bae Moon

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Although there have been many researches on mobile robot localization, it is still difficult to obtain reliable localization performance in a human co-existing real environment. Reliability of localization is highly dependent upon developer's experiences because uncertainty is caused by a variety of reasons. We have developed a range sensor based integrated localization scheme for various indoor service robots. Through the experience, we found out that there are several significant experimental issues. In this paper, we provide useful solutions for following questions which are frequently faced with in practical applications: 1 How to design an observation likelihood model? 2 How to detect the localization failure? 3 How to recover from the localization failure? We present design guidelines of observation likelihood model. Localization failure detection and recovery schemes are presented by focusing on abrupt wheel slippage. Experiments were carried out in a typical office building environment. The proposed scheme to identify the localizer status is useful in practical environments. Moreover, the semi-global localization is a computationally efficient recovery scheme from localization failure. The results of experiments and analysis clearly present the usefulness of proposed solutions.

Observation Likelihood Model Design and Failure Recovery Scheme Toward Reliable Localization of Mobile Robots

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chang-bae Moon

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Although there have been many researches on mobile robot localization, it is still difficult to obtain reliable localization performance in a human co-existing real environment. Reliability of localization is highly dependent upon developer's experiences because uncertainty is caused by a variety of reasons. We have developed a range sensor based integrated localization scheme for various indoor service robots. Through the experience, we found out that there are several significant experimental issues. In this paper, we provide useful solutions for following questions which are frequently faced with in practical applications: 1 How to design an observation likelihood model? 2 How to detect the localization failure? 3 How to recover from the localization failure? We present design guidelines of observation likelihood model. Localization failure detection and recovery schemes are presented by focusing on abrupt wheel slippage. Experiments were carried out in a typical office building environment. The proposed scheme to identify the localizer status is useful in practical environments. Moreover, the semi-global localization is a computationally efficient recovery scheme from localization failure. The results of experiments and analysis clearly present the usefulness of proposed solutions.

Assessing Individual Weather Risk-Taking and Its Role in Modeling Likelihood of Hurricane Evacuation

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, A. E.

2017-12-01

This research focuses upon measuring an individual's level of perceived risk of different severe and extreme weather conditions using a new self-report measure, the Weather Risk-Taking Scale (WRTS). For 32 severe and extreme situations in which people could perform an unsafe behavior (e. g., remaining outside with lightning striking close by, driving over roadways covered with water, not evacuating ahead of an approaching hurricane, etc.), people rated: 1.their likelihood of performing the behavior, 2. The perceived risk of performing the behavior, 3. the expected benefits of performing the behavior, and 4. whether the behavior has actually been performed in the past. Initial development research with the measure using 246 undergraduate students examined its psychometric properties and found that it was internally consistent (Cronbach's a ranged from .87 to .93 for the four scales) and that the scales possessed good temporal (test-retest) reliability (r's ranged from .84 to .91). A second regression study involving 86 undergraduate students found that taking weather risks was associated with having taken similar risks in one's past and with the personality trait of sensation-seeking. Being more attentive to the weather and perceiving its risks when it became extreme was associated with lower likelihoods of taking weather risks (overall regression model, R2adj = 0.60). A third study involving 334 people examined the contributions of weather risk perceptions and risk-taking in modeling the self-reported likelihood of complying with a recommended evacuation ahead of a hurricane. Here, higher perceptions of hurricane risks and lower perceived benefits of risk-taking along with fear of severe weather and hurricane personal self-efficacy ratings were all statistically significant contributors to the likelihood of evacuating ahead of a hurricane. Psychological rootedness and attachment to one's home also tend to predict lack of evacuation. This research highlights the

Evaluation of the maximum-likelihood adaptive neural system (MLANS) applications to noncooperative IFF

Science.gov (United States)

Chernick, Julian A.; Perlovsky, Leonid I.; Tye, David M.

1994-06-01

This paper describes applications of maximum likelihood adaptive neural system (MLANS) to the characterization of clutter in IR images and to the identification of targets. The characterization of image clutter is needed to improve target detection and to enhance the ability to compare performance of different algorithms using diverse imagery data. Enhanced unambiguous IFF is important for fratricide reduction while automatic cueing and targeting is becoming an ever increasing part of operations. We utilized MLANS which is a parametric neural network that combines optimal statistical techniques with a model-based approach. This paper shows that MLANS outperforms classical classifiers, the quadratic classifier and the nearest neighbor classifier, because on the one hand it is not limited to the usual Gaussian distribution assumption and can adapt in real time to the image clutter distribution; on the other hand MLANS learns from fewer samples and is more robust than the nearest neighbor classifiers. Future research will address uncooperative IFF using fused IR and MMW data.

%lrasch_mml: A SAS Macro for Marginal Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Longitudinal Polytomous Rasch Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maja Olsbjerg

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Item response theory models are often applied when a number items are used to measure a unidimensional latent variable. Originally proposed and used within educational research, they are also used when focus is on physical functioning or psychological wellbeing. Modern applications often need more general models, typically models for multidimensional latent variables or longitudinal models for repeated measurements. This paper describes a SAS macro that fits two-dimensional polytomous Rasch models using a specification of the model that is sufficiently flexible to accommodate longitudinal Rasch models. The macro estimates item parameters using marginal maximum likelihood estimation. A graphical presentation of item characteristic curves is included.

High-order Composite Likelihood Inference for Max-Stable Distributions and Processes

KAUST Repository

Castruccio, Stefano; Huser, Raphaë l; Genton, Marc G.

2015-01-01

In multivariate or spatial extremes, inference for max-stable processes observed at a large collection of locations is a very challenging problem in computational statistics, and current approaches typically rely on less expensive composite likelihoods constructed from small subsets of data. In this work, we explore the limits of modern state-of-the-art computational facilities to perform full likelihood inference and to efficiently evaluate high-order composite likelihoods. With extensive simulations, we assess the loss of information of composite likelihood estimators with respect to a full likelihood approach for some widely-used multivariate or spatial extreme models, we discuss how to choose composite likelihood truncation to improve the efficiency, and we also provide recommendations for practitioners. This article has supplementary material online.

High-order Composite Likelihood Inference for Max-Stable Distributions and Processes

KAUST Repository

Castruccio, Stefano

2015-09-29

In multivariate or spatial extremes, inference for max-stable processes observed at a large collection of locations is a very challenging problem in computational statistics, and current approaches typically rely on less expensive composite likelihoods constructed from small subsets of data. In this work, we explore the limits of modern state-of-the-art computational facilities to perform full likelihood inference and to efficiently evaluate high-order composite likelihoods. With extensive simulations, we assess the loss of information of composite likelihood estimators with respect to a full likelihood approach for some widely-used multivariate or spatial extreme models, we discuss how to choose composite likelihood truncation to improve the efficiency, and we also provide recommendations for practitioners. This article has supplementary material online.

Using UML to Model Web Services for Automatic Composition

OpenAIRE

Amal Elgammal; Mohamed El-Sharkawi

2010-01-01

There is a great interest paid to the web services paradigm nowadays. One of the most important problems related to the web service paradigm is the automatic composition of web services. Several frameworks have been proposed to achieve this novel goal. The most recent and richest framework (model) is the Colombo model. However, even for experienced developers, working with Colombo formalisms is low-level, very complex and timeconsuming. We propose to use UML (Unified Modeling Language) to mod...

Empirical Likelihood in Nonignorable Covariate-Missing Data Problems.

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Yanmei; Zhang, Biao

2017-04-20

Missing covariate data occurs often in regression analysis, which frequently arises in the health and social sciences as well as in survey sampling. We study methods for the analysis of a nonignorable covariate-missing data problem in an assumed conditional mean function when some covariates are completely observed but other covariates are missing for some subjects. We adopt the semiparametric perspective of Bartlett et al. (Improving upon the efficiency of complete case analysis when covariates are MNAR. Biostatistics 2014;15:719-30) on regression analyses with nonignorable missing covariates, in which they have introduced the use of two working models, the working probability model of missingness and the working conditional score model. In this paper, we study an empirical likelihood approach to nonignorable covariate-missing data problems with the objective of effectively utilizing the two working models in the analysis of covariate-missing data. We propose a unified approach to constructing a system of unbiased estimating equations, where there are more equations than unknown parameters of interest. One useful feature of these unbiased estimating equations is that they naturally incorporate the incomplete data into the data analysis, making it possible to seek efficient estimation of the parameter of interest even when the working regression function is not specified to be the optimal regression function. We apply the general methodology of empirical likelihood to optimally combine these unbiased estimating equations. We propose three maximum empirical likelihood estimators of the underlying regression parameters and compare their efficiencies with other existing competitors. We present a simulation study to compare the finite-sample performance of various methods with respect to bias, efficiency, and robustness to model misspecification. The proposed empirical likelihood method is also illustrated by an analysis of a data set from the US National Health and

Automatic Model Generation Framework for Computational Simulation of Cochlear Implantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Mangado, Nerea; Ceresa, Mario; Duchateau, Nicolas; Kjer, Hans Martin; Vera, Sergio; Dejea Velardo, Hector; Mistrik, Pavel; Paulsen, Rasmus R; Fagertun, Jens; Noailly, Jérôme; Piella, Gemma; González Ballester, Miguel Ángel

2016-08-01

Recent developments in computational modeling of cochlear implantation are promising to study in silico the performance of the implant before surgery. However, creating a complete computational model of the patient's anatomy while including an external device geometry remains challenging. To address such a challenge, we propose an automatic framework for the generation of patient-specific meshes for finite element modeling of the implanted cochlea. First, a statistical shape model is constructed from high-resolution anatomical μCT images. Then, by fitting the statistical model to a patient's CT image, an accurate model of the patient-specific cochlea anatomy is obtained. An algorithm based on the parallel transport frame is employed to perform the virtual insertion of the cochlear implant. Our automatic framework also incorporates the surrounding bone and nerve fibers and assigns constitutive parameters to all components of the finite element model. This model can then be used to study in silico the effects of the electrical stimulation of the cochlear implant. Results are shown on a total of 25 models of patients. In all cases, a final mesh suitable for finite element simulations was obtained, in an average time of 94 s. The framework has proven to be fast and robust, and is promising for a detailed prognosis of the cochlear implantation surgery.

Small-Scale Helicopter Automatic Autorotation : Modeling, Guidance, and Control

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Taamallah, S.

2015-01-01

Our research objective consists in developing a, model-based, automatic safety recovery system, for a small-scale helicopter Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) in autorotation, i.e. an engine OFF flight condition, that safely flies and lands the helicopter to a pre-specified ground location. In pursuit

Exclusion probabilities and likelihood ratios with applications to mixtures.

Science.gov (United States)

Slooten, Klaas-Jan; Egeland, Thore

2016-01-01

The statistical evidence obtained from mixed DNA profiles can be summarised in several ways in forensic casework including the likelihood ratio (LR) and the Random Man Not Excluded (RMNE) probability. The literature has seen a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of likelihood ratios and exclusion probabilities, and part of our aim is to bring some clarification to this debate. In a previous paper, we proved that there is a general mathematical relationship between these statistics: RMNE can be expressed as a certain average of the LR, implying that the expected value of the LR, when applied to an actual contributor to the mixture, is at least equal to the inverse of the RMNE. While the mentioned paper presented applications for kinship problems, the current paper demonstrates the relevance for mixture cases, and for this purpose, we prove some new general properties. We also demonstrate how to use the distribution of the likelihood ratio for donors of a mixture, to obtain estimates for exceedance probabilities of the LR for non-donors, of which the RMNE is a special case corresponding to L R>0. In order to derive these results, we need to view the likelihood ratio as a random variable. In this paper, we describe how such a randomization can be achieved. The RMNE is usually invoked only for mixtures without dropout. In mixtures, artefacts like dropout and drop-in are commonly encountered and we address this situation too, illustrating our results with a basic but widely implemented model, a so-called binary model. The precise definitions, modelling and interpretation of the required concepts of dropout and drop-in are not entirely obvious, and we attempt to clarify them here in a general likelihood framework for a binary model.

Nearly Efficient Likelihood Ratio Tests of the Unit Root Hypothesis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jansson, Michael; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

Seemingly absent from the arsenal of currently available "nearly efficient" testing procedures for the unit root hypothesis, i.e. tests whose local asymptotic power functions are indistinguishable from the Gaussian power envelope, is a test admitting a (quasi-)likelihood ratio interpretation. We...... show that the likelihood ratio unit root test derived in a Gaussian AR(1) model with standard normal innovations is nearly efficient in that model. Moreover, these desirable properties carry over to more complicated models allowing for serially correlated and/or non-Gaussian innovations....

Grammar-based Automatic 3D Model Reconstruction from Terrestrial Laser Scanning Data

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Q.; Helmholz, P.; Belton, D.; West, G.

2014-04-01

The automatic reconstruction of 3D buildings has been an important research topic during the last years. In this paper, a novel method is proposed to automatically reconstruct the 3D building models from segmented data based on pre-defined formal grammar and rules. Such segmented data can be extracted e.g. from terrestrial or mobile laser scanning devices. Two steps are considered in detail. The first step is to transform the segmented data into 3D shapes, for instance using the DXF (Drawing Exchange Format) format which is a CAD data file format used for data interchange between AutoCAD and other program. Second, we develop a formal grammar to describe the building model structure and integrate the pre-defined grammars into the reconstruction process. Depending on the different segmented data, the selected grammar and rules are applied to drive the reconstruction process in an automatic manner. Compared with other existing approaches, our proposed method allows the model reconstruction directly from 3D shapes and takes the whole building into account.

Improvement and comparison of likelihood functions for model calibration and parameter uncertainty analysis within a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Qin-Bo; Chen, Xi; Xu, Chong-Yu; Reinhardt-Imjela, Christian; Schulte, Achim

2014-11-01

In this study, the likelihood functions for uncertainty analysis of hydrological models are compared and improved through the following steps: (1) the equivalent relationship between the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE) and the likelihood function with Gaussian independent and identically distributed residuals is proved; (2) a new estimation method of the Box-Cox transformation (BC) parameter is developed to improve the effective elimination of the heteroscedasticity of model residuals; and (3) three likelihood functions-NSE, Generalized Error Distribution with BC (BC-GED) and Skew Generalized Error Distribution with BC (BC-SGED)-are applied for SWAT-WB-VSA (Soil and Water Assessment Tool - Water Balance - Variable Source Area) model calibration in the Baocun watershed, Eastern China. Performances of calibrated models are compared using the observed river discharges and groundwater levels. The result shows that the minimum variance constraint can effectively estimate the BC parameter. The form of the likelihood function significantly impacts on the calibrated parameters and the simulated results of high and low flow components. SWAT-WB-VSA with the NSE approach simulates flood well, but baseflow badly owing to the assumption of Gaussian error distribution, where the probability of the large error is low, but the small error around zero approximates equiprobability. By contrast, SWAT-WB-VSA with the BC-GED or BC-SGED approach mimics baseflow well, which is proved in the groundwater level simulation. The assumption of skewness of the error distribution may be unnecessary, because all the results of the BC-SGED approach are nearly the same as those of the BC-GED approach.

Massive optimal data compression and density estimation for scalable, likelihood-free inference in cosmology

Science.gov (United States)

Alsing, Justin; Wandelt, Benjamin; Feeney, Stephen

2018-03-01

Many statistical models in cosmology can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihood functions. Likelihood-free inference methods allow us to perform Bayesian inference from these models using only forward simulations, free from any likelihood assumptions or approximations. Likelihood-free inference generically involves simulating mock data and comparing to the observed data; this comparison in data-space suffers from the curse of dimensionality and requires compression of the data to a small number of summary statistics to be tractable. In this paper we use massive asymptotically-optimal data compression to reduce the dimensionality of the data-space to just one number per parameter, providing a natural and optimal framework for summary statistic choice for likelihood-free inference. Secondly, we present the first cosmological application of Density Estimation Likelihood-Free Inference (DELFI), which learns a parameterized model for joint distribution of data and parameters, yielding both the parameter posterior and the model evidence. This approach is conceptually simple, requires less tuning than traditional Approximate Bayesian Computation approaches to likelihood-free inference and can give high-fidelity posteriors from orders of magnitude fewer forward simulations. As an additional bonus, it enables parameter inference and Bayesian model comparison simultaneously. We demonstrate Density Estimation Likelihood-Free Inference with massive data compression on an analysis of the joint light-curve analysis supernova data, as a simple validation case study. We show that high-fidelity posterior inference is possible for full-scale cosmological data analyses with as few as ˜104 simulations, with substantial scope for further improvement, demonstrating the scalability of likelihood-free inference to large and complex cosmological datasets.

Likelihood ratio decisions in memory: three implied regularities.

Science.gov (United States)

Glanzer, Murray; Hilford, Andrew; Maloney, Laurence T

2009-06-01

We analyze four general signal detection models for recognition memory that differ in their distributional assumptions. Our analyses show that a basic assumption of signal detection theory, the likelihood ratio decision axis, implies three regularities in recognition memory: (1) the mirror effect, (2) the variance effect, and (3) the z-ROC length effect. For each model, we present the equations that produce the three regularities and show, in computed examples, how they do so. We then show that the regularities appear in data from a range of recognition studies. The analyses and data in our study support the following generalization: Individuals make efficient recognition decisions on the basis of likelihood ratios.

Recovery of Graded Response Model Parameters: A Comparison of Marginal Maximum Likelihood and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Kieftenbeld, Vincent; Natesan, Prathiba

2012-01-01

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods enable a fully Bayesian approach to parameter estimation of item response models. In this simulation study, the authors compared the recovery of graded response model parameters using marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and Gibbs sampling (MCMC) under various latent trait distributions, test lengths, and…

Automatic Generation of Cycle-Approximate TLMs with Timed RTOS Model Support

Science.gov (United States)

Hwang, Yonghyun; Schirner, Gunar; Abdi, Samar

This paper presents a technique for automatically generating cycle-approximate transaction level models (TLMs) for multi-process applications mapped to embedded platforms. It incorporates three key features: (a) basic block level timing annotation, (b) RTOS model integration, and (c) RTOS overhead delay modeling. The inputs to TLM generation are application C processes and their mapping to processors in the platform. A processor data model, including pipelined datapath, memory hierarchy and branch delay model is used to estimate basic block execution delays. The delays are annotated to the C code, which is then integrated with a generated SystemC RTOS model. Our abstract RTOS provides dynamic scheduling and inter-process communication (IPC) with processor- and RTOS-specific pre-characterized timing. Our experiments using a MP3 decoder and a JPEG encoder show that timed TLMs, with integrated RTOS models, can be automatically generated in less than a minute. Our generated TLMs simulated three times faster than real-time and showed less than 10% timing error compared to board measurements.

Image Based Hair Segmentation Algorithm for the Application of Automatic Facial Caricature Synthesis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yehu Shen

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Hair is a salient feature in human face region and are one of the important cues for face analysis. Accurate detection and presentation of hair region is one of the key components for automatic synthesis of human facial caricature. In this paper, an automatic hair detection algorithm for the application of automatic synthesis of facial caricature based on a single image is proposed. Firstly, hair regions in training images are labeled manually and then the hair position prior distributions and hair color likelihood distribution function are estimated from these labels efficiently. Secondly, the energy function of the test image is constructed according to the estimated prior distributions of hair location and hair color likelihood. This energy function is further optimized according to graph cuts technique and initial hair region is obtained. Finally, K-means algorithm and image postprocessing techniques are applied to the initial hair region so that the final hair region can be segmented precisely. Experimental results show that the average processing time for each image is about 280 ms and the average hair region detection accuracy is above 90%. The proposed algorithm is applied to a facial caricature synthesis system. Experiments proved that with our proposed hair segmentation algorithm the facial caricatures are vivid and satisfying.

Automatic generation of statistical pose and shape models for articulated joints.

Science.gov (United States)

Xin Chen; Graham, Jim; Hutchinson, Charles; Muir, Lindsay

2014-02-01

Statistical analysis of motion patterns of body joints is potentially useful for detecting and quantifying pathologies. However, building a statistical motion model across different subjects remains a challenging task, especially for a complex joint like the wrist. We present a novel framework for simultaneous registration and segmentation of multiple 3-D (CT or MR) volumes of different subjects at various articulated positions. The framework starts with a pose model generated from 3-D volumes captured at different articulated positions of a single subject (template). This initial pose model is used to register the template volume to image volumes from new subjects. During this process, the Grow-Cut algorithm is used in an iterative refinement of the segmentation of the bone along with the pose parameters. As each new subject is registered and segmented, the pose model is updated, improving the accuracy of successive registrations. We applied the algorithm to CT images of the wrist from 25 subjects, each at five different wrist positions and demonstrated that it performed robustly and accurately. More importantly, the resulting segmentations allowed a statistical pose model of the carpal bones to be generated automatically without interaction. The evaluation results show that our proposed framework achieved accurate registration with an average mean target registration error of 0.34 ±0.27 mm. The automatic segmentation results also show high consistency with the ground truth obtained semi-automatically. Furthermore, we demonstrated the capability of the resulting statistical pose and shape models by using them to generate a measurement tool for scaphoid-lunate dissociation diagnosis, which achieved 90% sensitivity and specificity.

Optimizing Likelihood Models for Particle Trajectory Segmentation in Multi-State Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Dylan Christopher; Scrimgeour, Jan

2018-06-19

Particle tracking offers significant insight into the molecular mechanics that govern the behav- ior of living cells. The analysis of molecular trajectories that transition between different motive states, such as diffusive, driven and tethered modes, is of considerable importance, with even single trajectories containing significant amounts of information about a molecule's environment and its interactions with cellular structures. Hidden Markov models (HMM) have been widely adopted to perform the segmentation of such complex tracks. In this paper, we show that extensive analysis of hidden Markov model outputs using data derived from multi-state Brownian dynamics simulations can be used both for the optimization of the likelihood models used to describe the states of the system and for characterization of the technique's failure mechanisms. This analysis was made pos- sible by the implementation of parallelized adaptive direct search algorithm on a Nvidia graphics processing unit. This approach provides critical information for the visualization of HMM failure and successful design of particle tracking experiments where trajectories contain multiple mobile states. © 2018 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Estimation Methods for Non-Homogeneous Regression - Minimum CRPS vs Maximum Likelihood

Science.gov (United States)

Gebetsberger, Manuel; Messner, Jakob W.; Mayr, Georg J.; Zeileis, Achim

2017-04-01

Non-homogeneous regression models are widely used to statistically post-process numerical weather prediction models. Such regression models correct for errors in mean and variance and are capable to forecast a full probability distribution. In order to estimate the corresponding regression coefficients, CRPS minimization is performed in many meteorological post-processing studies since the last decade. In contrast to maximum likelihood estimation, CRPS minimization is claimed to yield more calibrated forecasts. Theoretically, both scoring rules used as an optimization score should be able to locate a similar and unknown optimum. Discrepancies might result from a wrong distributional assumption of the observed quantity. To address this theoretical concept, this study compares maximum likelihood and minimum CRPS estimation for different distributional assumptions. First, a synthetic case study shows that, for an appropriate distributional assumption, both estimation methods yield to similar regression coefficients. The log-likelihood estimator is slightly more efficient. A real world case study for surface temperature forecasts at different sites in Europe confirms these results but shows that surface temperature does not always follow the classical assumption of a Gaussian distribution. KEYWORDS: ensemble post-processing, maximum likelihood estimation, CRPS minimization, probabilistic temperature forecasting, distributional regression models

Sampling of systematic errors to estimate likelihood weights in nuclear data uncertainty propagation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helgesson, P.; Sjöstrand, H.; Koning, A.J.; Rydén, J.; Rochman, D.; Alhassan, E.; Pomp, S.

2016-01-01

In methodologies for nuclear data (ND) uncertainty assessment and propagation based on random sampling, likelihood weights can be used to infer experimental information into the distributions for the ND. As the included number of correlated experimental points grows large, the computational time for the matrix inversion involved in obtaining the likelihood can become a practical problem. There are also other problems related to the conventional computation of the likelihood, e.g., the assumption that all experimental uncertainties are Gaussian. In this study, a way to estimate the likelihood which avoids matrix inversion is investigated; instead, the experimental correlations are included by sampling of systematic errors. It is shown that the model underlying the sampling methodology (using univariate normal distributions for random and systematic errors) implies a multivariate Gaussian for the experimental points (i.e., the conventional model). It is also shown that the likelihood estimates obtained through sampling of systematic errors approach the likelihood obtained with matrix inversion as the sample size for the systematic errors grows large. In studied practical cases, it is seen that the estimates for the likelihood weights converge impractically slowly with the sample size, compared to matrix inversion. The computational time is estimated to be greater than for matrix inversion in cases with more experimental points, too. Hence, the sampling of systematic errors has little potential to compete with matrix inversion in cases where the latter is applicable. Nevertheless, the underlying model and the likelihood estimates can be easier to intuitively interpret than the conventional model and the likelihood function involving the inverted covariance matrix. Therefore, this work can both have pedagogical value and be used to help motivating the conventional assumption of a multivariate Gaussian for experimental data. The sampling of systematic errors could also

A general graphical user interface for automatic reliability modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Liceaga, Carlos A.; Siewiorek, Daniel P.

1991-01-01

Reported here is a general Graphical User Interface (GUI) for automatic reliability modeling of Processor Memory Switch (PMS) structures using a Markov model. This GUI is based on a hierarchy of windows. One window has graphical editing capabilities for specifying the system's communication structure, hierarchy, reconfiguration capabilities, and requirements. Other windows have field texts, popup menus, and buttons for specifying parameters and selecting actions. An example application of the GUI is given.

Component simulation in problems of calculated model formation of automatic machine mechanisms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Telegin Igor

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The paper deals with the problems of the component simulation method application in the problems of the automation of the mechanical system model formation with the further possibility of their CAD-realization. The purpose of the investigations mentioned consists in the automation of the CAD-model formation of high-speed mechanisms in automatic machines and in the analysis of dynamic processes occurred in their units taking into account their elasto-inertial properties, power dissipation, gaps in kinematic pairs, friction forces, design and technological loads. As an example in the paper there are considered a formalization of stages in the computer model formation of the cutting mechanism in cold stamping automatic machine AV1818 and methods of for the computation of their parameters on the basis of its solid-state model.

Automatic Model-Based Generation of Parameterized Test Cases Using Data Abstraction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Calamé, Jens R.; Ioustinova, Natalia; Romijn, J.M.T.; Smith, G.; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis

2007-01-01

Developing test suites is a costly and error-prone process. Model-based test generation tools facilitate this process by automatically generating test cases from system models. The applicability of these tools, however, depends on the size of the target systems. Here, we propose an approach to

Risk factors and likelihood of Campylobacter colonization in broiler flocks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SL Kuana

2007-09-01

Full Text Available Campylobacter was investigated in cecal droppings, feces, and cloacal swabs of 22 flocks of 3 to 5 week-old broilers. Risk factors and the likelihood of the presence of this agent in these flocks were determined. Management practices, such as cleaning and disinfection, feeding, drinkers, and litter treatments, were assessed. Results were evaluated using Odds Ratio (OR test, and their significance was tested by Fisher's test (p<0.05. A Campylobacter prevalence of 81.8% was found in the broiler flocks (18/22, and within positive flocks, it varied between 85 and 100%. Campylobacter incidence among sample types was homogenous, being 81.8% in cecal droppings, 80.9% in feces, and 80.4% in cloacal swabs (230. Flocks fed by automatic feeding systems presented higher incidence of Campylobacter as compared to those fed by tube feeders. Litter was reused in 63.6% of the farm, and, despite the lack of statistical significance, there was higher likelihood of Campylobacter incidence when litter was reused. Foot bath was not used in 45.5% of the flocks, whereas the use of foot bath associated to deficient lime management increased the number of positive flocks, although with no statiscal significance. The evaluated parameters were not significantly associated with Campylobacter colonization in the assessed broiler flocks.

On the Relationships between Jeffreys Modal and Weighted Likelihood Estimation of Ability under Logistic IRT Models

Science.gov (United States)

Magis, David; Raiche, Gilles

2012-01-01

This paper focuses on two estimators of ability with logistic item response theory models: the Bayesian modal (BM) estimator and the weighted likelihood (WL) estimator. For the BM estimator, Jeffreys' prior distribution is considered, and the corresponding estimator is referred to as the Jeffreys modal (JM) estimator. It is established that under…

Automatic creation of Markov models for reliability assessment of safety instrumented systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo Haitao; Yang Xianhui

2008-01-01

After the release of new international functional safety standards like IEC 61508, people care more for the safety and availability of safety instrumented systems. Markov analysis is a powerful and flexible technique to assess the reliability measurements of safety instrumented systems, but it is fallible and time-consuming to create Markov models manually. This paper presents a new technique to automatically create Markov models for reliability assessment of safety instrumented systems. Many safety related factors, such as failure modes, self-diagnostic, restorations, common cause and voting, are included in Markov models. A framework is generated first based on voting, failure modes and self-diagnostic. Then, repairs and common-cause failures are incorporated into the framework to build a complete Markov model. Eventual simplification of Markov models can be done by state merging. Examples given in this paper show how explosively the size of Markov model increases as the system becomes a little more complicated as well as the advancement of automatic creation of Markov models

Logic of likelihood

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wall, M.J.W.

1992-01-01

The notion of open-quotes probabilityclose quotes is generalized to that of open-quotes likelihood,close quotes and a natural logical structure is shown to exist for any physical theory which predicts likelihoods. Two physically based axioms are given for this logical structure to form an orthomodular poset, with an order-determining set of states. The results strengthen the basis of the quantum logic approach to axiomatic quantum theory. 25 refs

Evaluating score- and feature-based likelihood ratio models for multivariate continuous data: applied to forensic MDMA comparison

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bolck, A.; Ni, H.; Lopatka, M.

2015-01-01

Likelihood ratio (LR) models are moving into the forefront of forensic evidence evaluation as these methods are adopted by a diverse range of application areas in forensic science. We examine the fundamentally different results that can be achieved when feature- and score-based methodologies are

Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference With Examples in R, SAS and ADMB

CERN Document Server

Millar, Russell B

2011-01-01

This book takes a fresh look at the popular and well-established method of maximum likelihood for statistical estimation and inference. It begins with an intuitive introduction to the concepts and background of likelihood, and moves through to the latest developments in maximum likelihood methodology, including general latent variable models and new material for the practical implementation of integrated likelihood using the free ADMB software. Fundamental issues of statistical inference are also examined, with a presentation of some of the philosophical debates underlying the choice of statis

CT-based patient modeling for head and neck hyperthermia treatment planning: manual versus automatic normal-tissue-segmentation.

Science.gov (United States)

Verhaart, René F; Fortunati, Valerio; Verduijn, Gerda M; van Walsum, Theo; Veenland, Jifke F; Paulides, Margarethus M

2014-04-01

Clinical trials have shown that hyperthermia, as adjuvant to radiotherapy and/or chemotherapy, improves treatment of patients with locally advanced or recurrent head and neck (H&N) carcinoma. Hyperthermia treatment planning (HTP) guided H&N hyperthermia is being investigated, which requires patient specific 3D patient models derived from Computed Tomography (CT)-images. To decide whether a recently developed automatic-segmentation algorithm can be introduced in the clinic, we compared the impact of manual- and automatic normal-tissue-segmentation variations on HTP quality. CT images of seven patients were segmented automatically and manually by four observers, to study inter-observer and intra-observer geometrical variation. To determine the impact of this variation on HTP quality, HTP was performed using the automatic and manual segmentation of each observer, for each patient. This impact was compared to other sources of patient model uncertainties, i.e. varying gridsizes and dielectric tissue properties. Despite geometrical variations, manual and automatic generated 3D patient models resulted in an equal, i.e. 1%, variation in HTP quality. This variation was minor with respect to the total of other sources of patient model uncertainties, i.e. 11.7%. Automatically generated 3D patient models can be introduced in the clinic for H&N HTP. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

CT-based patient modeling for head and neck hyperthermia treatment planning: Manual versus automatic normal-tissue-segmentation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verhaart, René F.; Fortunati, Valerio; Verduijn, Gerda M.; Walsum, Theo van; Veenland, Jifke F.; Paulides, Margarethus M.

2014-01-01

Background and purpose: Clinical trials have shown that hyperthermia, as adjuvant to radiotherapy and/or chemotherapy, improves treatment of patients with locally advanced or recurrent head and neck (H and N) carcinoma. Hyperthermia treatment planning (HTP) guided H and N hyperthermia is being investigated, which requires patient specific 3D patient models derived from Computed Tomography (CT)-images. To decide whether a recently developed automatic-segmentation algorithm can be introduced in the clinic, we compared the impact of manual- and automatic normal-tissue-segmentation variations on HTP quality. Material and methods: CT images of seven patients were segmented automatically and manually by four observers, to study inter-observer and intra-observer geometrical variation. To determine the impact of this variation on HTP quality, HTP was performed using the automatic and manual segmentation of each observer, for each patient. This impact was compared to other sources of patient model uncertainties, i.e. varying gridsizes and dielectric tissue properties. Results: Despite geometrical variations, manual and automatic generated 3D patient models resulted in an equal, i.e. 1%, variation in HTP quality. This variation was minor with respect to the total of other sources of patient model uncertainties, i.e. 11.7%. Conclusions: Automatically generated 3D patient models can be introduced in the clinic for H and N HTP

CAD-based Monte Carlo automatic modeling method based on primitive solid

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Dong; Song, Jing; Yu, Shengpeng; Long, Pengcheng; Wang, Yongliang

2016-01-01

Highlights: • We develop a method which bi-convert between CAD model and primitive solid. • This method was improved from convert method between CAD model and half space. • This method was test by ITER model and validated the correctness and efficiency. • This method was integrated in SuperMC which could model for SuperMC and Geant4. - Abstract: Monte Carlo method has been widely used in nuclear design and analysis, where geometries are described with primitive solids. However, it is time consuming and error prone to describe a primitive solid geometry, especially for a complicated model. To reuse the abundant existed CAD models and conveniently model with CAD modeling tools, an automatic modeling method for accurate prompt modeling between CAD model and primitive solid is needed. An automatic modeling method for Monte Carlo geometry described by primitive solid was developed which could bi-convert between CAD model and Monte Carlo geometry represented by primitive solids. While converting from CAD model to primitive solid model, the CAD model was decomposed into several convex solid sets, and then corresponding primitive solids were generated and exported. While converting from primitive solid model to the CAD model, the basic primitive solids were created and related operation was done. This method was integrated in the SuperMC and was benchmarked with ITER benchmark model. The correctness and efficiency of this method were demonstrated.

Frequency-Domain Maximum-Likelihood Estimation of High-Voltage Pulse Transformer Model Parameters

CERN Document Server

Aguglia, D; Martins, C.D.A.

2014-01-01

This paper presents an offline frequency-domain nonlinear and stochastic identification method for equivalent model parameter estimation of high-voltage pulse transformers. Such kinds of transformers are widely used in the pulsed-power domain, and the difficulty in deriving pulsed-power converter optimal control strategies is directly linked to the accuracy of the equivalent circuit parameters. These components require models which take into account electric fields energies represented by stray capacitance in the equivalent circuit. These capacitive elements must be accurately identified, since they greatly influence the general converter performances. A nonlinear frequency-based identification method, based on maximum-likelihood estimation, is presented, and a sensitivity analysis of the best experimental test to be considered is carried out. The procedure takes into account magnetic saturation and skin effects occurring in the windings during the frequency tests. The presented method is validated by experim...

Likelihood inference for COM-Poisson cure rate model with interval-censored data and Weibull lifetimes.

Science.gov (United States)

Pal, Suvra; Balakrishnan, N

2017-10-01

In this paper, we consider a competing cause scenario and assume the number of competing causes to follow a Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution which can capture both over and under dispersion that is usually encountered in discrete data. Assuming the population of interest having a component cure and the form of the data to be interval censored, as opposed to the usually considered right-censored data, the main contribution is in developing the steps of the expectation maximization algorithm for the determination of the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters of the flexible Conway-Maxwell Poisson cure rate model with Weibull lifetimes. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Model discrimination within the Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution is addressed using the likelihood ratio test and information-based criteria to select a suitable competing cause distribution that provides the best fit to the data. A simulation study is also carried out to demonstrate the loss in efficiency when selecting an improper competing cause distribution which justifies the use of a flexible family of distributions for the number of competing causes. Finally, the proposed methodology and the flexibility of the Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution are illustrated with two known data sets from the literature: smoking cessation data and breast cosmesis data.

An automatic fault management model for distribution networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lehtonen, M; Haenninen, S [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland); Seppaenen, M [North-Carelian Power Co (Finland); Antila, E; Markkila, E [ABB Transmit Oy (Finland)

1998-08-01

An automatic computer model, called the FI/FL-model, for fault location, fault isolation and supply restoration is presented. The model works as an integrated part of the substation SCADA, the AM/FM/GIS system and the medium voltage distribution network automation systems. In the model, three different techniques are used for fault location. First, by comparing the measured fault current to the computed one, an estimate for the fault distance is obtained. This information is then combined, in order to find the actual fault point, with the data obtained from the fault indicators in the line branching points. As a third technique, in the absence of better fault location data, statistical information of line section fault frequencies can also be used. For combining the different fault location information, fuzzy logic is used. As a result, the probability weights for the fault being located in different line sections, are obtained. Once the faulty section is identified, it is automatically isolated by remote control of line switches. Then the supply is restored to the remaining parts of the network. If needed, reserve connections from other adjacent feeders can also be used. During the restoration process, the technical constraints of the network are checked. Among these are the load carrying capacity of line sections, voltage drop and the settings of relay protection. If there are several possible network topologies, the model selects the technically best alternative. The FI/IL-model has been in trial use at two substations of the North-Carelian Power Company since November 1996. This chapter lists the practical experiences during the test use period. Also the benefits of this kind of automation are assessed and future developments are outlined

Maximum likelihood estimation of semiparametric mixture component models for competing risks data.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Sangbum; Huang, Xuelin

2014-09-01

In the analysis of competing risks data, the cumulative incidence function is a useful quantity to characterize the crude risk of failure from a specific event type. In this article, we consider an efficient semiparametric analysis of mixture component models on cumulative incidence functions. Under the proposed mixture model, latency survival regressions given the event type are performed through a class of semiparametric models that encompasses the proportional hazards model and the proportional odds model, allowing for time-dependent covariates. The marginal proportions of the occurrences of cause-specific events are assessed by a multinomial logistic model. Our mixture modeling approach is advantageous in that it makes a joint estimation of model parameters associated with all competing risks under consideration, satisfying the constraint that the cumulative probability of failing from any cause adds up to one given any covariates. We develop a novel maximum likelihood scheme based on semiparametric regression analysis that facilitates efficient and reliable estimation. Statistical inferences can be conveniently made from the inverse of the observed information matrix. We establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators. We validate small sample properties with simulations and demonstrate the methodology with a data set from a study of follicular lymphoma. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

A new method for automatic discontinuity traces sampling on rock mass 3D model

Science.gov (United States)

Umili, G.; Ferrero, A.; Einstein, H. H.

2013-02-01

A new automatic method for discontinuity traces mapping and sampling on a rock mass digital model is described in this work. The implemented procedure allows one to automatically identify discontinuity traces on a Digital Surface Model: traces are detected directly as surface breaklines, by means of maximum and minimum principal curvature values of the vertices that constitute the model surface. Color influence and user errors, that usually characterize the trace mapping on images, are eliminated. Also trace sampling procedures based on circular windows and circular scanlines have been implemented: they are used to infer trace data and to calculate values of mean trace length, expected discontinuity diameter and intensity of rock discontinuities. The method is tested on a case study: results obtained applying the automatic procedure on the DSM of a rock face are compared to those obtained performing a manual sampling on the orthophotograph of the same rock face.

Progressive sampling-based Bayesian optimization for efficient and automatic machine learning model selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Xueqiang; Luo, Gang

2017-12-01

Machine learning is broadly used for clinical data analysis. Before training a model, a machine learning algorithm must be selected. Also, the values of one or more model parameters termed hyper-parameters must be set. Selecting algorithms and hyper-parameter values requires advanced machine learning knowledge and many labor-intensive manual iterations. To lower the bar to machine learning, miscellaneous automatic selection methods for algorithms and/or hyper-parameter values have been proposed. Existing automatic selection methods are inefficient on large data sets. This poses a challenge for using machine learning in the clinical big data era. To address the challenge, this paper presents progressive sampling-based Bayesian optimization, an efficient and automatic selection method for both algorithms and hyper-parameter values. We report an implementation of the method. We show that compared to a state of the art automatic selection method, our method can significantly reduce search time, classification error rate, and standard deviation of error rate due to randomization. This is major progress towards enabling fast turnaround in identifying high-quality solutions required by many machine learning-based clinical data analysis tasks.

A probabilistic approach using deformable organ models for automatic definition of normal anatomical structures for 3D treatment planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fritsch, Daniel; Yu Liyun; Johnson, Valen; McAuliffe, Matthew; Pizer, Stephen; Chaney, Edward

1996-01-01

priori (prior) information and 2) a likelihood function. In Bayesian terminology, the energy functions in the model represent a priori information. The likelihood function is computed from the image data and can take the form of geometric measurements obtained at the skeleton and boundary points. The best match is obtained by deforming the model to optimize the posterior probability. Results : A 2D implementation of the approach was tested on CT slices through the liver and kidneys and on MRI slices through the ventricles of the brain. Automatic segmentation was successful in all cases. When the model is matched against several slices, the slice that best matches the model corresponds to the slice with the greatest posterior probability. This finding is a demonstration of object recognition. Moreover abnormalities in shape, e.g., protrusions or indentations not represented in the model, can be recognized and localized by analyzing local values of the posterior probability. Conclusion : The method for combining the model and image data warps the model to conform to the image data while preserving neighbor relationships in the model, stabilizing the localization of the object boundary region in the presence of noise, contrast gradients, and poor contrast resolution. Therefore the method is robust and the results are reproducible and user independent. The success of initial studies is encouraging and extension to 3D is planned using more sophisticated models that capture statistical variations in organ shape across a population of images

Maximum likelihood estimation of the attenuated ultrasound pulse

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Klaus Bolding

1994-01-01

The attenuated ultrasound pulse is divided into two parts: a stationary basic pulse and a nonstationary attenuation pulse. A standard ARMA model is used for the basic pulse, and a nonstandard ARMA model is derived for the attenuation pulse. The maximum likelihood estimator of the attenuated...

Influencing Attitudes Regarding Special Class Placement Using a Psychoeducational Report: An Investigation of the Elaboration Likelihood Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrews, Lester W.; Gutkin, Terry B.

1994-01-01

Investigates variables drawn from the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) that might be manipulated to enhance the persuasiveness of a psychoeducational report. Results showed teachers in training were more persuaded by reports with high message quality. Findings are discussed in terms of the ELM and professional school psychology practice. (RJM)

A review of studies on persuasion from the viewpoint of the Elaboration Likelihood Model (1)

OpenAIRE

Fukada, Hiromi; Kimura, Kenichi; Makino, Koshi; Higuchi, Masataka

2000-01-01

The purpose of this paper was to review studies on persuasion from the viewpoint of the Elaboration Likelihood Model based on Petty & Wegener (1998). The paper consists of the following four parts. 1. Introduction. 2. Multiple roles for persuasion variables. 3. Source variables: (1) credibility (expertise, trustworthiness), (2) attractiveness/likableness, (3) power, (4) additional source factors related to credibility, liking and power (speed of speech, demographic variables, majority/minorit...

USING AFFORDABLE DATA CAPTURING DEVICES FOR AUTOMATIC 3D CITY MODELLING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Alizadehashrafi

2017-11-01

Full Text Available In this research project, many movies from UTM Kolej 9, Skudai, Johor Bahru (See Figure 1 were taken by AR. Drone 2. Since the AR drone 2.0 has liquid lens, while flying there were significant distortions and deformations on the converted pictures of the movies. Passive remote sensing (RS applications based on image matching and Epipolar lines such as Agisoft PhotoScan have been tested to create the point clouds and mesh along with 3D models and textures. As the result was not acceptable (See Figure 2, the previous Dynamic Pulse Function based on Ruby programming language were enhanced and utilized to create the 3D models automatically in LoD3. The accuracy of the final 3D model is almost 10 to 20 cm. After rectification and parallel projection of the photos based on some tie points and targets, all the parameters were measured and utilized as an input to the system to create the 3D model automatically in LoD3 in a very high accuracy.

Automatic, Global and Dynamic Student Modeling in a Ubiquitous Learning Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sabine Graf

2009-03-01

Full Text Available Ubiquitous learning allows students to learn at any time and any place. Adaptivity plays an important role in ubiquitous learning, aiming at providing students with adaptive and personalized learning material, activities, and information at the right place and the right time. However, for providing rich adaptivity, the student model needs to be able to gather a variety of information about the students. In this paper, an automatic, global, and dynamic student modeling approach is introduced, which aims at identifying and frequently updating information about students’ progress, learning styles, interests and knowledge level, problem solving abilities, preferences for using the system, social connectivity, and current location. This information is gathered in an automatic way, using students’ behavior and actions in different learning situations provided by different components/services of the ubiquitous learning environment. By providing a comprehensive student model, students can be supported by rich adaptivity in every component/service of the learning environment. Furthermore, the information in the student model can help in giving teachers a better understanding about the students’ learning process.

Using Affordable Data Capturing Devices for Automatic 3d City Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Alizadehashrafi, B.; Abdul-Rahman, A.

2017-11-01

In this research project, many movies from UTM Kolej 9, Skudai, Johor Bahru (See Figure 1) were taken by AR. Drone 2. Since the AR drone 2.0 has liquid lens, while flying there were significant distortions and deformations on the converted pictures of the movies. Passive remote sensing (RS) applications based on image matching and Epipolar lines such as Agisoft PhotoScan have been tested to create the point clouds and mesh along with 3D models and textures. As the result was not acceptable (See Figure 2), the previous Dynamic Pulse Function based on Ruby programming language were enhanced and utilized to create the 3D models automatically in LoD3. The accuracy of the final 3D model is almost 10 to 20 cm. After rectification and parallel projection of the photos based on some tie points and targets, all the parameters were measured and utilized as an input to the system to create the 3D model automatically in LoD3 in a very high accuracy.

Automatic Offline Formulation of Robust Model Predictive Control Based on Linear Matrix Inequalities Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Longge Zhang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Two automatic robust model predictive control strategies are presented for uncertain polytopic linear plants with input and output constraints. A sequence of nested geometric proportion asymptotically stable ellipsoids and controllers is constructed offline first. Then the feedback controllers are automatically selected with the receding horizon online in the first strategy. Finally, a modified automatic offline robust MPC approach is constructed to improve the closed system's performance. The new proposed strategies not only reduce the conservatism but also decrease the online computation. Numerical examples are given to illustrate their effectiveness.

Comparison of likelihood testing procedures for parallel systems with covariances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ayman Baklizi; Isa Daud; Noor Akma Ibrahim

1998-01-01

In this paper we considered investigating and comparing the behavior of the likelihood ratio, the Rao's and the Wald's statistics for testing hypotheses on the parameters of the simple linear regression model based on parallel systems with covariances. These statistics are asymptotically equivalent (Barndorff-Nielsen and Cox, 1994). However, their relative performances in finite samples are generally known. A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to stimulate the sizes and the powers of these statistics for complete samples and in the presence of time censoring. Comparisons of the statistics are made according to the attainment of assumed size of the test and their powers at various points in the parameter space. The results show that the likelihood ratio statistics appears to have the best performance in terms of the attainment of the assumed size of the test. Power comparisons show that the Rao statistic has some advantage over the Wald statistic in almost all of the space of alternatives while likelihood ratio statistic occupies either the first or the last position in term of power. Overall, the likelihood ratio statistic appears to be more appropriate to the model under study, especially for small sample sizes

Computing maximum likelihood estimates of loglinear models from marginal sums with special attention to loglinear item response theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kelderman, Henk

1992-01-01

In this paper algorithms are described for obtaining the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in loglinear models. Modified versions of the iterative proportional fitting and Newton-Raphson algorithms are described that work on the minimal sufficient statistics rather than on the usual

Parameterizing Spatial Models of Infectious Disease Transmission that Incorporate Infection Time Uncertainty Using Sampling-Based Likelihood Approximations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rajat Malik

Full Text Available A class of discrete-time models of infectious disease spread, referred to as individual-level models (ILMs, are typically fitted in a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC framework. These models quantify probabilistic outcomes regarding the risk of infection of susceptible individuals due to various susceptibility and transmissibility factors, including their spatial distance from infectious individuals. The infectious pressure from infected individuals exerted on susceptible individuals is intrinsic to these ILMs. Unfortunately, quantifying this infectious pressure for data sets containing many individuals can be computationally burdensome, leading to a time-consuming likelihood calculation and, thus, computationally prohibitive MCMC-based analysis. This problem worsens when using data augmentation to allow for uncertainty in infection times. In this paper, we develop sampling methods that can be used to calculate a fast, approximate likelihood when fitting such disease models. A simple random sampling approach is initially considered followed by various spatially-stratified schemes. We test and compare the performance of our methods with both simulated data and data from the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD epidemic in the U.K. Our results indicate that substantial computation savings can be obtained--albeit, of course, with some information loss--suggesting that such techniques may be of use in the analysis of very large epidemic data sets.

Multi-Channel Maximum Likelihood Pitch Estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Mads Græsbøll

2012-01-01

In this paper, a method for multi-channel pitch estimation is proposed. The method is a maximum likelihood estimator and is based on a parametric model where the signals in the various channels share the same fundamental frequency but can have different amplitudes, phases, and noise characteristics....... This essentially means that the model allows for different conditions in the various channels, like different signal-to-noise ratios, microphone characteristics and reverberation. Moreover, the method does not assume that a certain array structure is used but rather relies on a more general model and is hence...

Automatic generation of groundwater model hydrostratigraphy from AEM resistivity and boreholes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Marker, Pernille Aabye; Foged, N.; Christiansen, A. V.

2014-01-01

Regional hydrological models are important tools in water resources management. Model prediction uncertainty is primarily due to structural (geological) non-uniqueness which makes sampling of the structural model space necessary to estimate prediction uncertainties. Geological structures and hete...... and discharge observations. The method was applied to field data collected at a Danish field site. Our results show that a competitive hydrological model can be constructed from the AEM dataset using the automatic procedure outlined above....

Application of a semi-automatic cartilage segmentation method for biomechanical modeling of the knee joint.

Science.gov (United States)

Liukkonen, Mimmi K; Mononen, Mika E; Tanska, Petri; Saarakkala, Simo; Nieminen, Miika T; Korhonen, Rami K

2017-10-01

Manual segmentation of articular cartilage from knee joint 3D magnetic resonance images (MRI) is a time consuming and laborious task. Thus, automatic methods are needed for faster and reproducible segmentations. In the present study, we developed a semi-automatic segmentation method based on radial intensity profiles to generate 3D geometries of knee joint cartilage which were then used in computational biomechanical models of the knee joint. Six healthy volunteers were imaged with a 3T MRI device and their knee cartilages were segmented both manually and semi-automatically. The values of cartilage thicknesses and volumes produced by these two methods were compared. Furthermore, the influences of possible geometrical differences on cartilage stresses and strains in the knee were evaluated with finite element modeling. The semi-automatic segmentation and 3D geometry construction of one knee joint (menisci, femoral and tibial cartilages) was approximately two times faster than with manual segmentation. Differences in cartilage thicknesses, volumes, contact pressures, stresses, and strains between segmentation methods in femoral and tibial cartilage were mostly insignificant (p > 0.05) and random, i.e. there were no systematic differences between the methods. In conclusion, the devised semi-automatic segmentation method is a quick and accurate way to determine cartilage geometries; it may become a valuable tool for biomechanical modeling applications with large patient groups.

Deformation of log-likelihood loss function for multiclass boosting.

Science.gov (United States)

Kanamori, Takafumi

2010-09-01

The purpose of this paper is to study loss functions in multiclass classification. In classification problems, the decision function is estimated by minimizing an empirical loss function, and then, the output label is predicted by using the estimated decision function. We propose a class of loss functions which is obtained by a deformation of the log-likelihood loss function. There are four main reasons why we focus on the deformed log-likelihood loss function: (1) this is a class of loss functions which has not been deeply investigated so far, (2) in terms of computation, a boosting algorithm with a pseudo-loss is available to minimize the proposed loss function, (3) the proposed loss functions provide a clear correspondence between the decision functions and conditional probabilities of output labels, (4) the proposed loss functions satisfy the statistical consistency of the classification error rate which is a desirable property in classification problems. Based on (3), we show that the deformed log-likelihood loss provides a model of mislabeling which is useful as a statistical model of medical diagnostics. We also propose a robust loss function against outliers in multiclass classification based on our approach. The robust loss function is a natural extension of the existing robust loss function for binary classification. A model of mislabeling and a robust loss function are useful to cope with noisy data. Some numerical studies are presented to show the robustness of the proposed loss function. A mathematical characterization of the deformed log-likelihood loss function is also presented. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applying the elaboration likelihood model of persuasion to a videotape-based eating disorders primary prevention program for adolescent girls.

Science.gov (United States)

Withers, Giselle F; Wertheim, Eleanor H

2004-01-01

This study applied principles from the Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion to the prevention of disordered eating. Early adolescent girls watched either a preventive videotape only (n=114) or video plus post-video activity (verbal discussion, written exercises, or control discussion) (n=187); or had no intervention (n=104). Significantly more body image and knowledge improvements occurred at post video and follow-up in the intervention groups compared to no intervention. There were no outcome differences among intervention groups, or between girls with high or low elaboration likelihood. Further research is needed in integrating the videotape into a broader prevention package.

Model Considerations for Memory-based Automatic Music Transcription

Science.gov (United States)

Albrecht, Štěpán; Šmídl, Václav

2009-12-01

The problem of automatic music description is considered. The recorded music is modeled as a superposition of known sounds from a library weighted by unknown weights. Similar observation models are commonly used in statistics and machine learning. Many methods for estimation of the weights are available. These methods differ in the assumptions imposed on the weights. In Bayesian paradigm, these assumptions are typically expressed in the form of prior probability density function (pdf) on the weights. In this paper, commonly used assumptions about music signal are summarized and complemented by a new assumption. These assumptions are translated into pdfs and combined into a single prior density using combination of pdfs. Validity of the model is tested in simulation using synthetic data.

Computing maximum likelihood estimates of loglinear models from marginal sums with special attention to loglinear item response theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kelderman, Henk

1991-01-01

In this paper, algorithms are described for obtaining the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in log-linear models. Modified versions of the iterative proportional fitting and Newton-Raphson algorithms are described that work on the minimal sufficient statistics rather than on the usual

Bayesian Monte Carlo and Maximum Likelihood Approach for Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management: Application to Lake Oxygen Recovery Model

Science.gov (United States)

Model uncertainty estimation and risk assessment is essential to environmental management and informed decision making on pollution mitigation strategies. In this study, we apply a probabilistic methodology, which combines Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and Maximum Likelihood e...

LEARNING VECTOR QUANTIZATION FOR ADAPTED GAUSSIAN MIXTURE MODELS IN AUTOMATIC SPEAKER IDENTIFICATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

IMEN TRABELSI

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Speaker Identification (SI aims at automatically identifying an individual by extracting and processing information from his/her voice. Speaker voice is a robust a biometric modality that has a strong impact in several application areas. In this study, a new combination learning scheme has been proposed based on Gaussian mixture model-universal background model (GMM-UBM and Learning vector quantization (LVQ for automatic text-independent speaker identification. Features vectors, constituted by the Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC extracted from the speech signal are used to train the New England subset of the TIMIT database. The best results obtained (90% for gender- independent speaker identification, 97 % for male speakers and 93% for female speakers for test data using 36 MFCC features.

Race of source effects in the elaboration likelihood model.

Science.gov (United States)

White, P H; Harkins, S G

1994-11-01

In a series of experiments, we investigated the effect of race of source on persuasive communications in the Elaboration Likelihood Model (R.E. Petty & J.T. Cacioppo, 1981, 1986). In Experiment 1, we found no evidence that White participants responded to a Black source as a simple negative cue. Experiment 2 suggested the possibility that exposure to a Black source led to low-involvement message processing. In Experiments 3 and 4, a distraction paradigm was used to test this possibility, and it was found that participants under low involvement were highly motivated to process a message presented by a Black source. In Experiment 5, we found that attitudes toward the source's ethnic group, rather than violations of expectancies, accounted for this processing effect. Taken together, the results of these experiments are consistent with S.L. Gaertner and J.F. Dovidio's (1986) theory of aversive racism, which suggests that Whites, because of a combination of egalitarian values and underlying negative racial attitudes, are very concerned about not appearing unfavorable toward Blacks, leading them to be highly motivated to process messages presented by a source from this group.

Likelihood-based Dynamic Factor Analysis for Measurement and Forecasting

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jungbacker, B.M.J.P.; Koopman, S.J.

2015-01-01

We present new results for the likelihood-based analysis of the dynamic factor model. The latent factors are modelled by linear dynamic stochastic processes. The idiosyncratic disturbance series are specified as autoregressive processes with mutually correlated innovations. The new results lead to

Maximum likelihood estimation of signal detection model parameters for the assessment of two-stage diagnostic strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Lirio, R B; Dondériz, I C; Pérez Abalo, M C

1992-08-01

The methodology of Receiver Operating Characteristic curves based on the signal detection model is extended to evaluate the accuracy of two-stage diagnostic strategies. A computer program is developed for the maximum likelihood estimation of parameters that characterize the sensitivity and specificity of two-stage classifiers according to this extended methodology. Its use is briefly illustrated with data collected in a two-stage screening for auditory defects.

Depression, automatic thoughts, alexithymia, and assertiveness in patients with tension-type headache.

Science.gov (United States)

Yücel, Basak; Kora, Kaan; Ozyalçín, Süleyman; Alçalar, Nilüfer; Ozdemir, Ozay; Yücel, Aysen

2002-03-01

The role of psychological factors related to headache has long been a focus of investigation. The aim of this study was to evaluate depression, automatic thoughts, alexithymia, and assertiveness in persons with tension-type headache and to compare the results with those from healthy controls. One hundred five subjects with tension-type headache (according to the criteria of the International Headache Society classification) and 70 controls were studied. The Beck Depression Inventory, Automatic Thoughts Scale, Toronto Alexithymia Scale, and Rathus Assertiveness Schedule were administered to both groups. Sociodemographic variables and headache features were evaluated via a semistructured scale. Compared with healthy controls, the subjects with headache had significantly higher scores on measures of depression, automatic thoughts, and alexithymia and lower scores on assertiveness. Subjects with chronic tension-type headache had higher depression and automatic thoughts scores than those with episodic tension-type headache. These findings suggested that persons with tension-type headache have high depression scores and also may have difficulty with expression of their emotions. Headache frequency appears to influence the likelihood of coexisting depression.

Composite likelihood and two-stage estimation in family studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Elisabeth Anne Wreford

2004-01-01

In this paper register based family studies provide the motivation for linking a two-stage estimation procedure in copula models for multivariate failure time data with a composite likelihood approach. The asymptotic properties of the estimators in both parametric and semi-parametric models are d...

Robust Gaussian Process Regression with a Student-t Likelihood

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jylänki, P.P.; Vanhatalo, J.; Vehtari, A.

2011-01-01

This paper considers the robust and efficient implementation of Gaussian process regression with a Student-t observation model, which has a non-log-concave likelihood. The challenge with the Student-t model is the analytically intractable inference which is why several approximative methods have

A fast fiducial marker tracking model for fully automatic alignment in electron tomography

KAUST Repository

Han, Renmin; Zhang, Fa; Gao, Xin

2017-01-01

Automatic alignment, especially fiducial marker-based alignment, has become increasingly important due to the high demand of subtomogram averaging and the rapid development of large-field electron microscopy. Among the alignment steps, fiducial marker tracking is a crucial one that determines the quality of the final alignment. Yet, it is still a challenging problem to track the fiducial markers accurately and effectively in a fully automatic manner.In this paper, we propose a robust and efficient scheme for fiducial marker tracking. Firstly, we theoretically prove the upper bound of the transformation deviation of aligning the positions of fiducial markers on two micrographs by affine transformation. Secondly, we design an automatic algorithm based on the Gaussian mixture model to accelerate the procedure of fiducial marker tracking. Thirdly, we propose a divide-and-conquer strategy against lens distortions to ensure the reliability of our scheme. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt that theoretically relates the projection model with the tracking model. The real-world experimental results further support our theoretical bound and demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm. This work facilitates the fully automatic tracking for datasets with a massive number of fiducial markers.The C/C ++ source code that implements the fast fiducial marker tracking is available at https://github.com/icthrm/gmm-marker-tracking. Markerauto 1.6 version or later (also integrated in the AuTom platform at http://ear.ict.ac.cn/) offers a complete implementation for fast alignment, in which fast fiducial marker tracking is available by the

A fast fiducial marker tracking model for fully automatic alignment in electron tomography

KAUST Repository

Han, Renmin

2017-10-20

Automatic alignment, especially fiducial marker-based alignment, has become increasingly important due to the high demand of subtomogram averaging and the rapid development of large-field electron microscopy. Among the alignment steps, fiducial marker tracking is a crucial one that determines the quality of the final alignment. Yet, it is still a challenging problem to track the fiducial markers accurately and effectively in a fully automatic manner.In this paper, we propose a robust and efficient scheme for fiducial marker tracking. Firstly, we theoretically prove the upper bound of the transformation deviation of aligning the positions of fiducial markers on two micrographs by affine transformation. Secondly, we design an automatic algorithm based on the Gaussian mixture model to accelerate the procedure of fiducial marker tracking. Thirdly, we propose a divide-and-conquer strategy against lens distortions to ensure the reliability of our scheme. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt that theoretically relates the projection model with the tracking model. The real-world experimental results further support our theoretical bound and demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm. This work facilitates the fully automatic tracking for datasets with a massive number of fiducial markers.The C/C ++ source code that implements the fast fiducial marker tracking is available at https://github.com/icthrm/gmm-marker-tracking. Markerauto 1.6 version or later (also integrated in the AuTom platform at http://ear.ict.ac.cn/) offers a complete implementation for fast alignment, in which fast fiducial marker tracking is available by the

Moral Identity Predicts Doping Likelihood via Moral Disengagement and Anticipated Guilt.

Science.gov (United States)

Kavussanu, Maria; Ring, Christopher

2017-08-01

In this study, we integrated elements of social cognitive theory of moral thought and action and the social cognitive model of moral identity to better understand doping likelihood in athletes. Participants (N = 398) recruited from a variety of team sports completed measures of moral identity, moral disengagement, anticipated guilt, and doping likelihood. Moral identity predicted doping likelihood indirectly via moral disengagement and anticipated guilt. Anticipated guilt about potential doping mediated the relationship between moral disengagement and doping likelihood. Our findings provide novel evidence to suggest that athletes, who feel that being a moral person is central to their self-concept, are less likely to use banned substances due to their lower tendency to morally disengage and the more intense feelings of guilt they expect to experience for using banned substances.

Use of deterministic sampling for exploring likelihoods in linkage analysis for quantitative traits.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mackinnon, M.J.; Beek, van der S.; Kinghorn, B.P.

1996-01-01

Deterministic sampling was used to numerically evaluate the expected log-likelihood surfaces of QTL-marker linkage models in large pedigrees with simple structures. By calculating the expected values of likelihoods, questions of power of experimental designs, bias in parameter estimates, approximate

Performances of the likelihood-ratio classifier based on different data modelings

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chen, C.; Veldhuis, Raymond N.J.

2008-01-01

The classical likelihood ratio classifier easily collapses in many biometric applications especially with independent training-test subjects. The reason lies in the inaccurate estimation of the underlying user-specific feature density. Firstly, the feature density estimation suffers from

MXLKID: a maximum likelihood parameter identifier

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gavel, D.T.

1980-07-01

MXLKID (MaXimum LiKelihood IDentifier) is a computer program designed to identify unknown parameters in a nonlinear dynamic system. Using noisy measurement data from the system, the maximum likelihood identifier computes a likelihood function (LF). Identification of system parameters is accomplished by maximizing the LF with respect to the parameters. The main body of this report briefly summarizes the maximum likelihood technique and gives instructions and examples for running the MXLKID program. MXLKID is implemented LRLTRAN on the CDC7600 computer at LLNL. A detailed mathematical description of the algorithm is given in the appendices. 24 figures, 6 tables

Supplementary Material for: High-Order Composite Likelihood Inference for Max-Stable Distributions and Processes

KAUST Repository

Castruccio, Stefano; Huser, Raphaë l; Genton, Marc G.

2016-01-01

In multivariate or spatial extremes, inference for max-stable processes observed at a large collection of points is a very challenging problem and current approaches typically rely on less expensive composite likelihoods constructed from small subsets of data. In this work, we explore the limits of modern state-of-the-art computational facilities to perform full likelihood inference and to efficiently evaluate high-order composite likelihoods. With extensive simulations, we assess the loss of information of composite likelihood estimators with respect to a full likelihood approach for some widely used multivariate or spatial extreme models, we discuss how to choose composite likelihood truncation to improve the efficiency, and we also provide recommendations for practitioners. This article has supplementary material online.

Modelling the adoption of automatic milking systems in Noord-Holland

OpenAIRE

Matteo Floridi; Fabio Bartolini; Jack Peerlings; Nico Polman; Davide Viaggi

2013-01-01

Innovation and new technology adoption represent two central elements for the business and industry development process in agriculture. One of the most relevant innovations in dairy farms is the robotisation of the milking process through the adoption of Automatic Milking Systems (AMS). The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of selected Common Agricultural Policy measures on the adoption of AMS in dairy farms. The model developed is a dynamic farm-household model that is able to si...

Quantifying uncertainty, variability and likelihood for ordinary differential equation models

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Weisse, Andrea Y

2010-10-28

Abstract Background In many applications, ordinary differential equation (ODE) models are subject to uncertainty or variability in initial conditions and parameters. Both, uncertainty and variability can be quantified in terms of a probability density function on the state and parameter space. Results The partial differential equation that describes the evolution of this probability density function has a form that is particularly amenable to application of the well-known method of characteristics. The value of the density at some point in time is directly accessible by the solution of the original ODE extended by a single extra dimension (for the value of the density). This leads to simple methods for studying uncertainty, variability and likelihood, with significant advantages over more traditional Monte Carlo and related approaches especially when studying regions with low probability. Conclusions While such approaches based on the method of characteristics are common practice in other disciplines, their advantages for the study of biological systems have so far remained unrecognized. Several examples illustrate performance and accuracy of the approach and its limitations.

Moment Conditions Selection Based on Adaptive Penalized Empirical Likelihood

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yunquan Song

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Empirical likelihood is a very popular method and has been widely used in the fields of artificial intelligence (AI and data mining as tablets and mobile application and social media dominate the technology landscape. This paper proposes an empirical likelihood shrinkage method to efficiently estimate unknown parameters and select correct moment conditions simultaneously, when the model is defined by moment restrictions in which some are possibly misspecified. We show that our method enjoys oracle-like properties; that is, it consistently selects the correct moment conditions and at the same time its estimator is as efficient as the empirical likelihood estimator obtained by all correct moment conditions. Moreover, unlike the GMM, our proposed method allows us to carry out confidence regions for the parameters included in the model without estimating the covariances of the estimators. For empirical implementation, we provide some data-driven procedures for selecting the tuning parameter of the penalty function. The simulation results show that the method works remarkably well in terms of correct moment selection and the finite sample properties of the estimators. Also, a real-life example is carried out to illustrate the new methodology.

CADLIVE toolbox for MATLAB: automatic dynamic modeling of biochemical networks with comprehensive system analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Inoue, Kentaro; Maeda, Kazuhiro; Miyabe, Takaaki; Matsuoka, Yu; Kurata, Hiroyuki

2014-09-01

Mathematical modeling has become a standard technique to understand the dynamics of complex biochemical systems. To promote the modeling, we had developed the CADLIVE dynamic simulator that automatically converted a biochemical map into its associated mathematical model, simulated its dynamic behaviors and analyzed its robustness. To enhance the feasibility by CADLIVE and extend its functions, we propose the CADLIVE toolbox available for MATLAB, which implements not only the existing functions of the CADLIVE dynamic simulator, but also the latest tools including global parameter search methods with robustness analysis. The seamless, bottom-up processes consisting of biochemical network construction, automatic construction of its dynamic model, simulation, optimization, and S-system analysis greatly facilitate dynamic modeling, contributing to the research of systems biology and synthetic biology. This application can be freely downloaded from http://www.cadlive.jp/CADLIVE_MATLAB/ together with an instruction.

Likelihood devices in spatial statistics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zwet, E.W. van

1999-01-01

One of the main themes of this thesis is the application to spatial data of modern semi- and nonparametric methods. Another, closely related theme is maximum likelihood estimation from spatial data. Maximum likelihood estimation is not common practice in spatial statistics. The method of moments

The ACR-program for automatic finite element model generation for part through cracks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leinonen, M.S.; Mikkola, T.P.J.

1989-01-01

The ACR-program (Automatic Finite Element Model Generation for Part Through Cracks) has been developed at the Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) for automatic finite element model generation for surface flaws using three dimensional solid elements. Circumferential or axial cracks can be generated on the inner or outer surface of a cylindrical or toroidal geometry. Several crack forms are available including the standard semi-elliptical surface crack. The program can be used in the development of automated systems for fracture mechanical analyses of structures. The tests for the accuracy of the FE-mesh have been started with two-dimensional models. The results indicate that the accuracy of the standard mesh is sufficient for practical analyses. Refinement of the standard mesh is needed in analyses with high load levels well over the limit load of the structure

Assessing Compatibility of Direct Detection Data: Halo-Independent Global Likelihood Analyses

CERN Document Server

Gelmini, Graciela B.

2016-10-18

We present two different halo-independent methods utilizing a global maximum likelihood that can assess the compatibility of dark matter direct detection data given a particular dark matter model. The global likelihood we use is comprised of at least one extended likelihood and an arbitrary number of Poisson or Gaussian likelihoods. In the first method we find the global best fit halo function and construct a two sided pointwise confidence band, which can then be compared with those derived from the extended likelihood alone to assess the joint compatibility of the data. In the second method we define a "constrained parameter goodness-of-fit" test statistic, whose $p$-value we then use to define a "plausibility region" (e.g. where $p \\geq 10\\%$). For any halo function not entirely contained within the plausibility region, the level of compatibility of the data is very low (e.g. $p < 10 \\%$). As an example we apply these methods to CDMS-II-Si and SuperCDMS data, assuming dark matter particles with elastic s...

Automatic Conversion of a Conceptual Model to a Standard Multi-view Web Services Definition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anass Misbah

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Information systems are becoming more and more heterogeneous and here comes the need to have more generic transformation algorithms and more automatic generation Meta rules. In fact, the large number of terminals, devices, operating systems, platforms and environments require a high level of adaptation. Therefore, it is becoming more and more difficult to validate, generate and implement manually models, designs and codes.Web services are one of the technologies that are used massively nowadays; hence, it is considered as one of technologies that require the most automatic rules of validation and automation. Many previous works have dealt with Web services by proposing new concepts such as Multi-view Web services, standard WSDL implementation of Multi-view Web services and even further Generic Meta rules for automatic generation of Multi-view Web services.In this work we will propose a new way of generating Multi-view Web ser-vices, which is based on an engine algorithm that takes as input both an initial Conceptual Model and user’s matrix and then unroll a generic algorithm to gen-erate dynamically a validated set of points of view. This set of points of view will be transformed to a standard WSDL implementation of Multi-view Web services by means of the automatic transformation Meta rules.

Genetic Programming for Automatic Hydrological Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Chadalawada, Jayashree; Babovic, Vladan

2017-04-01

One of the recent challenges for the hydrologic research community is the need for the development of coupled systems that involves the integration of hydrologic, atmospheric and socio-economic relationships. This poses a requirement for novel modelling frameworks that can accurately represent complex systems, given, the limited understanding of underlying processes, increasing volume of data and high levels of uncertainity. Each of the existing hydrological models vary in terms of conceptualization and process representation and is the best suited to capture the environmental dynamics of a particular hydrological system. Data driven approaches can be used in the integration of alternative process hypotheses in order to achieve a unified theory at catchment scale. The key steps in the implementation of integrated modelling framework that is influenced by prior understanding and data, include, choice of the technique for the induction of knowledge from data, identification of alternative structural hypotheses, definition of rules, constraints for meaningful, intelligent combination of model component hypotheses and definition of evaluation metrics. This study aims at defining a Genetic Programming based modelling framework that test different conceptual model constructs based on wide range of objective functions and evolves accurate and parsimonious models that capture dominant hydrological processes at catchment scale. In this paper, GP initializes the evolutionary process using the modelling decisions inspired from the Superflex framework [Fenicia et al., 2011] and automatically combines them into model structures that are scrutinized against observed data using statistical, hydrological and flow duration curve based performance metrics. The collaboration between data driven and physical, conceptual modelling paradigms improves the ability to model and manage hydrologic systems. Fenicia, F., D. Kavetski, and H. H. Savenije (2011), Elements of a flexible approach

Applying exclusion likelihoods from LHC searches to extended Higgs sectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bechtle, Philip; Heinemeyer, Sven; Staal, Oscar; Stefaniak, Tim; Weiglein, Georg

2015-01-01

LHC searches for non-standard Higgs bosons decaying into tau lepton pairs constitute a sensitive experimental probe for physics beyond the Standard Model (BSM), such as supersymmetry (SUSY). Recently, the limits obtained from these searches have been presented by the CMS collaboration in a nearly model-independent fashion - as a narrow resonance model - based on the full 8 TeV dataset. In addition to publishing a 95 % C.L. exclusion limit, the full likelihood information for the narrowresonance model has been released. This provides valuable information that can be incorporated into global BSM fits. We present a simple algorithm that maps an arbitrary model with multiple neutral Higgs bosons onto the narrow resonance model and derives the corresponding value for the exclusion likelihood from the CMS search. This procedure has been implemented into the public computer code HiggsBounds (version 4.2.0 and higher). We validate our implementation by cross-checking against the official CMS exclusion contours in three Higgs benchmark scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM), and find very good agreement. Going beyond validation, we discuss the combined constraints of the ττ search and the rate measurements of the SM-like Higgs at 125 GeV in a recently proposed MSSM benchmark scenario, where the lightest Higgs boson obtains SM-like couplings independently of the decoupling of the heavier Higgs states. Technical details for how to access the likelihood information within HiggsBounds are given in the appendix. The program is available at http:// higgsbounds.hepforge.org. (orig.)

Comparison Of Semi-Automatic And Automatic Slick Detection Algorithms For Jiyeh Power Station Oil Spill, Lebanon

Science.gov (United States)

Osmanoglu, B.; Ozkan, C.; Sunar, F.

2013-10-01

After air strikes on July 14 and 15, 2006 the Jiyeh Power Station started leaking oil into the eastern Mediterranean Sea. The power station is located about 30 km south of Beirut and the slick covered about 170 km of coastline threatening the neighboring countries Turkey and Cyprus. Due to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Lebanon, cleaning efforts could not start immediately resulting in 12 000 to 15 000 tons of fuel oil leaking into the sea. In this paper we compare results from automatic and semi-automatic slick detection algorithms. The automatic detection method combines the probabilities calculated for each pixel from each image to obtain a joint probability, minimizing the adverse effects of atmosphere on oil spill detection. The method can readily utilize X-, C- and L-band data where available. Furthermore wind and wave speed observations can be used for a more accurate analysis. For this study, we utilize Envisat ASAR ScanSAR data. A probability map is generated based on the radar backscatter, effect of wind and dampening value. The semi-automatic algorithm is based on supervised classification. As a classifier, Artificial Neural Network Multilayer Perceptron (ANN MLP) classifier is used since it is more flexible and efficient than conventional maximum likelihood classifier for multisource and multi-temporal data. The learning algorithm for ANN MLP is chosen as the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM). Training and test data for supervised classification are composed from the textural information created from SAR images. This approach is semiautomatic because tuning the parameters of classifier and composing training data need a human interaction. We point out the similarities and differences between the two methods and their results as well as underlining their advantages and disadvantages. Due to the lack of ground truth data, we compare obtained results to each other, as well as other published oil slick area assessments.

Likelihood-based inference for clustered line transect data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Waagepetersen, Rasmus Plenge; Schweder, Tore

The uncertainty in estimation of spatial animal density from line transect surveys depends on the degree of spatial clustering in the animal population. To quantify the clustering we model line transect data as independent thinnings of spatial shot-noise Cox processes. Likelihood-based inference...

Likelihood-based inference for clustered line transect data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Waagepetersen, Rasmus; Schweder, Tore

2006-01-01

The uncertainty in estimation of spatial animal density from line transect surveys depends on the degree of spatial clustering in the animal population. To quantify the clustering we model line transect data as independent thinnings of spatial shot-noise Cox processes. Likelihood-based inference...

Effects of deceptive packaging and product involvement on purchase intention: an elaboration likelihood model perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Lammers, H B

2000-04-01

From an Elaboration Likelihood Model perspective, it was hypothesized that postexposure awareness of deceptive packaging claims would have a greater negative effect on scores for purchase intention by consumers lowly involved rather than highly involved with a product (n = 40). Undergraduates who were classified as either highly or lowly (ns = 20 and 20) involved with M&Ms examined either a deceptive or non-deceptive package design for M&Ms candy and were subsequently informed of the deception employed in the packaging before finally rating their intention to purchase. As anticipated, highly deceived subjects who were low in involvement rated intention to purchase lower than their highly involved peers. Overall, the results attest to the robustness of the model and suggest that the model has implications beyond advertising effects and into packaging effects.

Automatic system for 3D reconstruction of the chick eye based on digital photographs.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Alexander; Genest, Reno; Chandrashekar, Naveen; Choh, Vivian; Irving, Elizabeth L

2012-01-01

The geometry of anatomical specimens is very complex and accurate 3D reconstruction is important for morphological studies, finite element analysis (FEA) and rapid prototyping. Although magnetic resonance imaging, computed tomography and laser scanners can be used for reconstructing biological structures, the cost of the equipment is fairly high and specialised technicians are required to operate the equipment, making such approaches limiting in terms of accessibility. In this paper, a novel automatic system for 3D surface reconstruction of the chick eye from digital photographs of a serially sectioned specimen is presented as a potential cost-effective and practical alternative. The system is designed to allow for automatic detection of the external surface of the chick eye. Automatic alignment of the photographs is performed using a combination of coloured markers and an algorithm based on complex phase order likelihood that is robust to noise and illumination variations. Automatic segmentation of the external boundaries of the eye from the aligned photographs is performed using a novel level-set segmentation approach based on a complex phase order energy functional. The extracted boundaries are sampled to construct a 3D point cloud, and a combination of Delaunay triangulation and subdivision surfaces is employed to construct the final triangular mesh. Experimental results using digital photographs of the chick eye show that the proposed system is capable of producing accurate 3D reconstructions of the external surface of the eye. The 3D model geometry is similar to a real chick eye and could be used for morphological studies and FEA.

Fast automatic 3D liver segmentation based on a three-level AdaBoost-guided active shape model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

He, Baochun; Huang, Cheng; Zhou, Shoujun; Hu, Qingmao; Jia, Fucang, E-mail: fc.jia@siat.ac.cn [Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518055 (China); Sharp, Gregory [Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts 02114 (United States); Fang, Chihua; Fan, Yingfang [Department of Hepatology (I), Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510280 (China)

2016-05-15

Purpose: A robust, automatic, and rapid method for liver delineation is urgently needed for the diagnosis and treatment of liver disorders. Until now, the high variability in liver shape, local image artifacts, and the presence of tumors have complicated the development of automatic 3D liver segmentation. In this study, an automatic three-level AdaBoost-guided active shape model (ASM) is proposed for the segmentation of the liver based on enhanced computed tomography images in a robust and fast manner, with an emphasis on the detection of tumors. Methods: The AdaBoost voxel classifier and AdaBoost profile classifier were used to automatically guide three-level active shape modeling. In the first level of model initialization, fast automatic liver segmentation by an AdaBoost voxel classifier method is proposed. A shape model is then initialized by registration with the resulting rough segmentation. In the second level of active shape model fitting, a prior model based on the two-class AdaBoost profile classifier is proposed to identify the optimal surface. In the third level, a deformable simplex mesh with profile probability and curvature constraint as the external force is used to refine the shape fitting result. In total, three registration methods—3D similarity registration, probability atlas B-spline, and their proposed deformable closest point registration—are used to establish shape correspondence. Results: The proposed method was evaluated using three public challenge datasets: 3Dircadb1, SLIVER07, and Visceral Anatomy3. The results showed that our approach performs with promising efficiency, with an average of 35 s, and accuracy, with an average Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) of 0.94 ± 0.02, 0.96 ± 0.01, and 0.94 ± 0.02 for the 3Dircadb1, SLIVER07, and Anatomy3 training datasets, respectively. The DSC of the SLIVER07 testing and Anatomy3 unseen testing datasets were 0.964 and 0.933, respectively. Conclusions: The proposed automatic approach

Fast automatic 3D liver segmentation based on a three-level AdaBoost-guided active shape model.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Baochun; Huang, Cheng; Sharp, Gregory; Zhou, Shoujun; Hu, Qingmao; Fang, Chihua; Fan, Yingfang; Jia, Fucang

2016-05-01

A robust, automatic, and rapid method for liver delineation is urgently needed for the diagnosis and treatment of liver disorders. Until now, the high variability in liver shape, local image artifacts, and the presence of tumors have complicated the development of automatic 3D liver segmentation. In this study, an automatic three-level AdaBoost-guided active shape model (ASM) is proposed for the segmentation of the liver based on enhanced computed tomography images in a robust and fast manner, with an emphasis on the detection of tumors. The AdaBoost voxel classifier and AdaBoost profile classifier were used to automatically guide three-level active shape modeling. In the first level of model initialization, fast automatic liver segmentation by an AdaBoost voxel classifier method is proposed. A shape model is then initialized by registration with the resulting rough segmentation. In the second level of active shape model fitting, a prior model based on the two-class AdaBoost profile classifier is proposed to identify the optimal surface. In the third level, a deformable simplex mesh with profile probability and curvature constraint as the external force is used to refine the shape fitting result. In total, three registration methods-3D similarity registration, probability atlas B-spline, and their proposed deformable closest point registration-are used to establish shape correspondence. The proposed method was evaluated using three public challenge datasets: 3Dircadb1, SLIVER07, and Visceral Anatomy3. The results showed that our approach performs with promising efficiency, with an average of 35 s, and accuracy, with an average Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) of 0.94 ± 0.02, 0.96 ± 0.01, and 0.94 ± 0.02 for the 3Dircadb1, SLIVER07, and Anatomy3 training datasets, respectively. The DSC of the SLIVER07 testing and Anatomy3 unseen testing datasets were 0.964 and 0.933, respectively. The proposed automatic approach achieves robust, accurate, and fast liver

Model-based automatic generation of grasping regions

Science.gov (United States)

Bloss, David A.

1993-01-01

The problem of automatically generating stable regions for a robotic end effector on a target object, given a model of the end effector and the object is discussed. In order to generate grasping regions, an initial valid grasp transformation from the end effector to the object is obtained based on form closure requirements, and appropriate rotational and translational symmetries are associated with that transformation in order to construct a valid, continuous grasping region. The main result of this algorithm is a list of specific, valid grasp transformations of the end effector to the target object, and the appropriate combinations of translational and rotational symmetries associated with each specific transformation in order to produce a continuous grasp region.

Maximum likelihood versus likelihood-free quantum system identification in the atom maser

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Catana, Catalin; Kypraios, Theodore; Guţă, Mădălin

2014-01-01

We consider the problem of estimating a dynamical parameter of a Markovian quantum open system (the atom maser), by performing continuous time measurements in the system's output (outgoing atoms). Two estimation methods are investigated and compared. Firstly, the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) takes into account the full measurement data and is asymptotically optimal in terms of its mean square error. Secondly, the ‘likelihood-free’ method of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) produces an approximation of the posterior distribution for a given set of summary statistics, by sampling trajectories at different parameter values and comparing them with the measurement data via chosen statistics. Building on previous results which showed that atom counts are poor statistics for certain values of the Rabi angle, we apply MLE to the full measurement data and estimate its Fisher information. We then select several correlation statistics such as waiting times, distribution of successive identical detections, and use them as input of the ABC algorithm. The resulting posterior distribution follows closely the data likelihood, showing that the selected statistics capture ‘most’ statistical information about the Rabi angle. (paper)

Multilevel maximum likelihood estimation with application to covariance matrices

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Turčičová, Marie; Mandel, J.; Eben, Kryštof

Published online: 23 January ( 2018 ) ISSN 0361-0926 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-34856S Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : Fisher information * High dimension * Hierarchical maximum likelihood * Nested parameter spaces * Spectral diagonal covariance model * Sparse inverse covariance model Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.311, year: 2016

Automatic Traffic-Based Internet Control Message Protocol (ICMP) Model Generation for ns-3

Science.gov (United States)

2015-12-01

more protocols (especially at different layers of the OSI model ), implementing an inference engine to extract inter- and intrapacket dependencies, and...ARL-TR-7543 ● DEC 2015 US Army Research Laboratory Automatic Traffic-Based Internet Control Message Protocol (ICMP) Model ...ICMP) Model Generation for ns-3 by Jaime C Acosta and Felipe Jovel Survivability/Lethality Analysis Directorate, ARL Felipe Sotelo and Caesar

Use of empirical likelihood to calibrate auxiliary information in partly linear monotone regression models.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Baojiang; Qin, Jing

2014-05-10

In statistical analysis, a regression model is needed if one is interested in finding the relationship between a response variable and covariates. When the response depends on the covariate, then it may also depend on the function of this covariate. If one has no knowledge of this functional form but expect for monotonic increasing or decreasing, then the isotonic regression model is preferable. Estimation of parameters for isotonic regression models is based on the pool-adjacent-violators algorithm (PAVA), where the monotonicity constraints are built in. With missing data, people often employ the augmented estimating method to improve estimation efficiency by incorporating auxiliary information through a working regression model. However, under the framework of the isotonic regression model, the PAVA does not work as the monotonicity constraints are violated. In this paper, we develop an empirical likelihood-based method for isotonic regression model to incorporate the auxiliary information. Because the monotonicity constraints still hold, the PAVA can be used for parameter estimation. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method can yield more efficient estimates, and in some situations, the efficiency improvement is substantial. We apply this method to a dementia study. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Analysis of Minute Features in Speckled Imagery with Maximum Likelihood Estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alejandro C. Frery

2004-12-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with numerical problems arising when performing maximum likelihood parameter estimation in speckled imagery using small samples. The noise that appears in images obtained with coherent illumination, as is the case of sonar, laser, ultrasound-B, and synthetic aperture radar, is called speckle, and it can neither be assumed Gaussian nor additive. The properties of speckle noise are well described by the multiplicative model, a statistical framework from which stem several important distributions. Amongst these distributions, one is regarded as the universal model for speckled data, namely, the 𝒢0 law. This paper deals with amplitude data, so the 𝒢A0 distribution will be used. The literature reports that techniques for obtaining estimates (maximum likelihood, based on moments and on order statistics of the parameters of the 𝒢A0 distribution require samples of hundreds, even thousands, of observations in order to obtain sensible values. This is verified for maximum likelihood estimation, and a proposal based on alternate optimization is made to alleviate this situation. The proposal is assessed with real and simulated data, showing that the convergence problems are no longer present. A Monte Carlo experiment is devised to estimate the quality of maximum likelihood estimators in small samples, and real data is successfully analyzed with the proposed alternated procedure. Stylized empirical influence functions are computed and used to choose a strategy for computing maximum likelihood estimates that is resistant to outliers.

Fast maximum likelihood estimation of mutation rates using a birth-death process.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Xiaowei; Zhu, Hongxiao

2015-02-07

Since fluctuation analysis was first introduced by Luria and Delbrück in 1943, it has been widely used to make inference about spontaneous mutation rates in cultured cells. Under certain model assumptions, the probability distribution of the number of mutants that appear in a fluctuation experiment can be derived explicitly, which provides the basis of mutation rate estimation. It has been shown that, among various existing estimators, the maximum likelihood estimator usually demonstrates some desirable properties such as consistency and lower mean squared error. However, its application in real experimental data is often hindered by slow computation of likelihood due to the recursive form of the mutant-count distribution. We propose a fast maximum likelihood estimator of mutation rates, MLE-BD, based on a birth-death process model with non-differential growth assumption. Simulation studies demonstrate that, compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimator derived from the Luria-Delbrück distribution, MLE-BD achieves substantial improvement on computational speed and is applicable to arbitrarily large number of mutants. In addition, it still retains good accuracy on point estimation. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Automatic Construction of Finite Algebras

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

张健

1995-01-01

This paper deals with model generation for equational theories,i.e.,automatically generating (finite)models of a given set of (logical) equations.Our method of finite model generation and a tool for automatic construction of finite algebras is described.Some examples are given to show the applications of our program.We argue that,the combination of model generators and theorem provers enables us to get a better understanding of logical theories.A brief comparison betwween our tool and other similar tools is also presented.

Regularization parameter selection methods for ill-posed Poisson maximum likelihood estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bardsley, Johnathan M; Goldes, John

2009-01-01

In image processing applications, image intensity is often measured via the counting of incident photons emitted by the object of interest. In such cases, image data noise is accurately modeled by a Poisson distribution. This motivates the use of Poisson maximum likelihood estimation for image reconstruction. However, when the underlying model equation is ill-posed, regularization is needed. Regularized Poisson likelihood estimation has been studied extensively by the authors, though a problem of high importance remains: the choice of the regularization parameter. We will present three statistically motivated methods for choosing the regularization parameter, and numerical examples will be presented to illustrate their effectiveness

Automatic component calibration and error diagnostics for model-based accelerator control. Phase I final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carl Stern; Martin Lee

1999-01-01

Phase I work studied the feasibility of developing software for automatic component calibration and error correction in beamline optics models. A prototype application was developed that corrects quadrupole field strength errors in beamline models

Automatic component calibration and error diagnostics for model-based accelerator control. Phase I final report

CERN Document Server

Carl-Stern

1999-01-01

Phase I work studied the feasibility of developing software for automatic component calibration and error correction in beamline optics models. A prototype application was developed that corrects quadrupole field strength errors in beamline models.

An Elaboration Likelihood Model Based Longitudinal Analysis of Attitude Change during the Process of IT Acceptance via Education Program

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Woong-Kyu

2012-01-01

The principal objective of this study was to gain insight into attitude changes occurring during IT acceptance from the perspective of elaboration likelihood model (ELM). In particular, the primary target of this study was the process of IT acceptance through an education program. Although the Internet and computers are now quite ubiquitous, and…

A generic method for automatic translation between input models for different versions of simulation codes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Serfontein, Dawid E.; Mulder, Eben J.; Reitsma, Frederik

2014-01-01

A computer code was developed for the semi-automatic translation of input models for the VSOP-A diffusion neutronics simulation code to the format of the newer VSOP 99/05 code. In this paper, this algorithm is presented as a generic method for producing codes for the automatic translation of input models from the format of one code version to another, or even to that of a completely different code. Normally, such translations are done manually. However, input model files, such as for the VSOP codes, often are very large and may consist of many thousands of numeric entries that make no particular sense to the human eye. Therefore the task, of for instance nuclear regulators, to verify the accuracy of such translated files can be very difficult and cumbersome. This may cause translation errors not to be picked up, which may have disastrous consequences later on when a reactor with such a faulty design is built. Therefore a generic algorithm for producing such automatic translation codes may ease the translation and verification process to a great extent. It will also remove human error from the process, which may significantly enhance the accuracy and reliability of the process. The developed algorithm also automatically creates a verification log file which permanently record the names and values of each variable used, as well as the list of meanings of all the possible values. This should greatly facilitate reactor licensing applications

A generic method for automatic translation between input models for different versions of simulation codes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Serfontein, Dawid E., E-mail: Dawid.Serfontein@nwu.ac.za [School of Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering, North West University (PUK-Campus), PRIVATE BAG X6001 (Internal Post Box 360), Potchefstroom 2520 (South Africa); Mulder, Eben J. [School of Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering, North West University (South Africa); Reitsma, Frederik [Calvera Consultants (South Africa)

2014-05-01

A computer code was developed for the semi-automatic translation of input models for the VSOP-A diffusion neutronics simulation code to the format of the newer VSOP 99/05 code. In this paper, this algorithm is presented as a generic method for producing codes for the automatic translation of input models from the format of one code version to another, or even to that of a completely different code. Normally, such translations are done manually. However, input model files, such as for the VSOP codes, often are very large and may consist of many thousands of numeric entries that make no particular sense to the human eye. Therefore the task, of for instance nuclear regulators, to verify the accuracy of such translated files can be very difficult and cumbersome. This may cause translation errors not to be picked up, which may have disastrous consequences later on when a reactor with such a faulty design is built. Therefore a generic algorithm for producing such automatic translation codes may ease the translation and verification process to a great extent. It will also remove human error from the process, which may significantly enhance the accuracy and reliability of the process. The developed algorithm also automatically creates a verification log file which permanently record the names and values of each variable used, as well as the list of meanings of all the possible values. This should greatly facilitate reactor licensing applications.

A likelihood-based biostatistical model for analyzing consumer movement in simultaneous choice experiments.

Science.gov (United States)

Zeilinger, Adam R; Olson, Dawn M; Andow, David A

2014-08-01

Consumer feeding preference among resource choices has critical implications for basic ecological and evolutionary processes, and can be highly relevant to applied problems such as ecological risk assessment and invasion biology. Within consumer choice experiments, also known as feeding preference or cafeteria experiments, measures of relative consumption and measures of consumer movement can provide distinct and complementary insights into the strength, causes, and consequences of preference. Despite the distinct value of inferring preference from measures of consumer movement, rigorous and biologically relevant analytical methods are lacking. We describe a simple, likelihood-based, biostatistical model for analyzing the transient dynamics of consumer movement in a paired-choice experiment. With experimental data consisting of repeated discrete measures of consumer location, the model can be used to estimate constant consumer attraction and leaving rates for two food choices, and differences in choice-specific attraction and leaving rates can be tested using model selection. The model enables calculation of transient and equilibrial probabilities of consumer-resource association, which could be incorporated into larger scale movement models. We explore the effect of experimental design on parameter estimation through stochastic simulation and describe methods to check that data meet model assumptions. Using a dataset of modest sample size, we illustrate the use of the model to draw inferences on consumer preference as well as underlying behavioral mechanisms. Finally, we include a user's guide and computer code scripts in R to facilitate use of the model by other researchers.

A Cough-Based Algorithm for Automatic Diagnosis of Pertussis

Science.gov (United States)

Pramono, Renard Xaviero Adhi; Imtiaz, Syed Anas; Rodriguez-Villegas, Esther

2016-01-01

Pertussis is a contagious respiratory disease which mainly affects young children and can be fatal if left untreated. The World Health Organization estimates 16 million pertussis cases annually worldwide resulting in over 200,000 deaths. It is prevalent mainly in developing countries where it is difficult to diagnose due to the lack of healthcare facilities and medical professionals. Hence, a low-cost, quick and easily accessible solution is needed to provide pertussis diagnosis in such areas to contain an outbreak. In this paper we present an algorithm for automated diagnosis of pertussis using audio signals by analyzing cough and whoop sounds. The algorithm consists of three main blocks to perform automatic cough detection, cough classification and whooping sound detection. Each of these extract relevant features from the audio signal and subsequently classify them using a logistic regression model. The output from these blocks is collated to provide a pertussis likelihood diagnosis. The performance of the proposed algorithm is evaluated using audio recordings from 38 patients. The algorithm is able to diagnose all pertussis successfully from all audio recordings without any false diagnosis. It can also automatically detect individual cough sounds with 92% accuracy and PPV of 97%. The low complexity of the proposed algorithm coupled with its high accuracy demonstrates that it can be readily deployed using smartphones and can be extremely useful for quick identification or early screening of pertussis and for infection outbreaks control. PMID:27583523

MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THE UNPUT DEVICES IN AUTOMATIC LOCOMOTIVE SIGNALING SYSTEM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. O. Gololobova

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose. To examine the operation of the automatic locomotive signaling system (ALS, to find out the influence of external factors on the devices operation and the quality of the code information derived from track circuit information, as well as to enable modeling of failure occurrences that may appear during operation. Methodology. To achieve this purpose, the main obstacles in ALS operation and the reasons for their occurrence were considered and the system structure principle was researched. The mathematical model for input equipment of the continuous automatic locomotive signaling system (ALS with the number coding was developed. It was designed taking into account all the types of code signals “R”, “Y”, “RY” and equivalent scheme of replacing the filter with a frequency of 50 Hz. Findings. The operation of ALSN with a signal current frequency of 50 Hz was examined. The adequate mathematical model of input equipment of ALS with a frequency of 50 Hz was developed. Originality. The computer model of input equipment of ALS system in the environment of MATLAB+Simulink was developed. The results of the computer modeling on the outlet of the filter during delivering every type of code combination were given in the article. Practical value. With the use of developed mathematical model of ALS system operation we have an opportunity to study, research and determine behavior of the circuit during the normal operation mode and failure occurrences. Also there is a possibility to develop and apply different scheme decisions in modeling environment MATLAB+Simulink for reducing the influence of obstacles on the functional capability of ALS and to model the occurrence of possible difficulties.

Automatic Generation of Symbolic Model for Parameterized Synchronous Systems

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Wei-Wen Xu

2004-01-01

With the purpose of making the verification of parameterized system more general and easier, in this paper, a new and intuitive language PSL (Parameterized-system Specification Language) is proposed to specify a class of parameterized synchronous systems. From a PSL script, an automatic method is proposed to generate a constraint-based symbolic model. The model can concisely symbolically represent the collections of global states by counting the number of processes in a given state. Moreover, a theorem has been proved that there is a simulation relation between the original system and its symbolic model. Since the abstract and symbolic techniques are exploited in the symbolic model, state-explosion problem in traditional verification methods is efficiently avoided. Based on the proposed symbolic model, a reachability analysis procedure is implemented using ANSI C++ on UNIX platform. Thus, a complete tool for verifying the parameterized synchronous systems is obtained and tested for some cases. The experimental results show that the method is satisfactory.

A likelihood-based time series modeling approach for application in dendrochronology to examine the growth-climate relations and forest disturbance history

Science.gov (United States)

A time series intervention analysis (TSIA) of dendrochronological data to infer the tree growth-climate-disturbance relations and forest disturbance history is described. Maximum likelihood is used to estimate the parameters of a structural time series model with components for ...

Semi-automatic registration of 3D orthodontics models from photographs

Science.gov (United States)

Destrez, Raphaël.; Treuillet, Sylvie; Lucas, Yves; Albouy-Kissi, Benjamin

2013-03-01

In orthodontics, a common practice used to diagnose and plan the treatment is the dental cast. After digitization by a CT-scan or a laser scanner, the obtained 3D surface models can feed orthodontics numerical tools for computer-aided diagnosis and treatment planning. One of the pre-processing critical steps is the 3D registration of dental arches to obtain the occlusion of these numerical models. For this task, we propose a vision based method to automatically compute the registration based on photos of patient mouth. From a set of matched singular points between two photos and the dental 3D models, the rigid transformation to apply to the mandible to be in contact with the maxillary may be computed by minimizing the reprojection errors. During a precedent study, we established the feasibility of this visual registration approach with a manual selection of singular points. This paper addresses the issue of automatic point detection. Based on a priori knowledge, histogram thresholding and edge detection are used to extract specific points in 2D images. Concurrently, curvatures information detects 3D corresponding points. To improve the quality of the final registration, we also introduce a combined optimization of the projection matrix with the 2D/3D point positions. These new developments are evaluated on real data by considering the reprojection errors and the deviation angles after registration in respect to the manual reference occlusion realized by a specialist.

A composite likelihood approach for spatially correlated survival data

Science.gov (United States)

Paik, Jane; Ying, Zhiliang

2013-01-01

The aim of this paper is to provide a composite likelihood approach to handle spatially correlated survival data using pairwise joint distributions. With e-commerce data, a recent question of interest in marketing research has been to describe spatially clustered purchasing behavior and to assess whether geographic distance is the appropriate metric to describe purchasing dependence. We present a model for the dependence structure of time-to-event data subject to spatial dependence to characterize purchasing behavior from the motivating example from e-commerce data. We assume the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) distribution and then model the dependence parameter as a function of geographic and demographic pairwise distances. For estimation of the dependence parameters, we present pairwise composite likelihood equations. We prove that the resulting estimators exhibit key properties of consistency and asymptotic normality under certain regularity conditions in the increasing-domain framework of spatial asymptotic theory. PMID:24223450

A composite likelihood approach for spatially correlated survival data.

Science.gov (United States)

Paik, Jane; Ying, Zhiliang

2013-01-01

The aim of this paper is to provide a composite likelihood approach to handle spatially correlated survival data using pairwise joint distributions. With e-commerce data, a recent question of interest in marketing research has been to describe spatially clustered purchasing behavior and to assess whether geographic distance is the appropriate metric to describe purchasing dependence. We present a model for the dependence structure of time-to-event data subject to spatial dependence to characterize purchasing behavior from the motivating example from e-commerce data. We assume the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) distribution and then model the dependence parameter as a function of geographic and demographic pairwise distances. For estimation of the dependence parameters, we present pairwise composite likelihood equations. We prove that the resulting estimators exhibit key properties of consistency and asymptotic normality under certain regularity conditions in the increasing-domain framework of spatial asymptotic theory.

A model based method for automatic facial expression recognition

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuilenburg, H. van; Wiering, M.A.; Uyl, M. den

2006-01-01

Automatic facial expression recognition is a research topic with interesting applications in the field of human-computer interaction, psychology and product marketing. The classification accuracy for an automatic system which uses static images as input is however largely limited by the image

Likelihood estimators for multivariate extremes

KAUST Repository

Huser, Raphaë l; Davison, Anthony C.; Genton, Marc G.

2015-01-01

The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of componentwise maxima, high threshold exceedances or point processes, yielding different but related asymptotic characterizations and estimators. The present paper clarifies the connections between the main likelihood estimators, and assesses their practical performance. We investigate their ability to estimate the extremal dependence structure and to predict future extremes, using exact calculations and simulation, in the case of the logistic model.

Likelihood estimators for multivariate extremes

KAUST Repository

Huser, Raphaël

2015-11-17

The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of componentwise maxima, high threshold exceedances or point processes, yielding different but related asymptotic characterizations and estimators. The present paper clarifies the connections between the main likelihood estimators, and assesses their practical performance. We investigate their ability to estimate the extremal dependence structure and to predict future extremes, using exact calculations and simulation, in the case of the logistic model.

A guideline for the validation of likelihood ratio methods used for forensic evidence evaluation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meuwly, Didier; Ramos, Daniel; Haraksim, Rudolf

2017-01-01

This Guideline proposes a protocol for the validation of forensic evaluation methods at the source level, using the Likelihood Ratio framework as defined within the Bayes’ inference model. In the context of the inference of identity of source, the Likelihood Ratio is used to evaluate the strength of

Essays on empirical likelihood in economics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gao, Z.

2012-01-01

This thesis intends to exploit the roots of empirical likelihood and its related methods in mathematical programming and computation. The roots will be connected and the connections will induce new solutions for the problems of estimation, computation, and generalization of empirical likelihood.

Maximum Likelihood Blind Channel Estimation for Space-Time Coding Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hakan A. Çırpan

2002-05-01

Full Text Available Sophisticated signal processing techniques have to be developed for capacity enhancement of future wireless communication systems. In recent years, space-time coding is proposed to provide significant capacity gains over the traditional communication systems in fading wireless channels. Space-time codes are obtained by combining channel coding, modulation, transmit diversity, and optional receive diversity in order to provide diversity at the receiver and coding gain without sacrificing the bandwidth. In this paper, we consider the problem of blind estimation of space-time coded signals along with the channel parameters. Both conditional and unconditional maximum likelihood approaches are developed and iterative solutions are proposed. The conditional maximum likelihood algorithm is based on iterative least squares with projection whereas the unconditional maximum likelihood approach is developed by means of finite state Markov process modelling. The performance analysis issues of the proposed methods are studied. Finally, some simulation results are presented.

Predicting Likelihood of Surgery Prior to First Visit in Patients with Back and Lower Extremity Symptoms: A simple mathematical model based on over 8000 patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Boden, Lauren M; Boden, Stephanie A; Premkumar, Ajay; Gottschalk, Michael B; Boden, Scott D

2018-02-09

Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data. To create a data-driven triage system stratifying patients by likelihood of undergoing spinal surgery within one year of presentation. Low back pain (LBP) and radicular lower extremity (LE) symptoms are common musculoskeletal problems. There is currently no standard data-derived triage process based on information that can be obtained prior to the initial physician-patient encounter to direct patients to the optimal physician type. We analyzed patient-reported data from 8006 patients with a chief complaint of LBP and/or LE radicular symptoms who presented to surgeons at a large multidisciplinary spine center between September 1, 2005 and June 30, 2016. Univariate and multivariate analysis identified independent risk factors for undergoing spinal surgery within one year of initial visit. A model incorporating these risk factors was created using a random sample of 80% of the total patients in our cohort, and validated on the remaining 20%. The baseline one-year surgery rate within our cohort was 39% for all patients and 42% for patients with LE symptoms. Those identified as high likelihood by the center's existing triage process had a surgery rate of 45%. The new triage scoring system proposed in this study was able to identify a high likelihood group in which 58% underwent surgery, which is a 46% higher surgery rate than in non-triaged patients and a 29% improvement from our institution's existing triage system. The data-driven triage model and scoring system derived and validated in this study (Spine Surgery Likelihood model [SSL-11]), significantly improved existing processes in predicting the likelihood of undergoing spinal surgery within one year of initial presentation. This triage system will allow centers to more selectively screen for surgical candidates and more effectively direct patients to surgeons or non-operative spine specialists. 4.

Validation of DNA-based identification software by computation of pedigree likelihood ratios.

Science.gov (United States)

Slooten, K

2011-08-01

Disaster victim identification (DVI) can be aided by DNA-evidence, by comparing the DNA-profiles of unidentified individuals with those of surviving relatives. The DNA-evidence is used optimally when such a comparison is done by calculating the appropriate likelihood ratios. Though conceptually simple, the calculations can be quite involved, especially with large pedigrees, precise mutation models etc. In this article we describe a series of test cases designed to check if software designed to calculate such likelihood ratios computes them correctly. The cases include both simple and more complicated pedigrees, among which inbred ones. We show how to calculate the likelihood ratio numerically and algebraically, including a general mutation model and possibility of allelic dropout. In Appendix A we show how to derive such algebraic expressions mathematically. We have set up these cases to validate new software, called Bonaparte, which performs pedigree likelihood ratio calculations in a DVI context. Bonaparte has been developed by SNN Nijmegen (The Netherlands) for the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI). It is available free of charge for non-commercial purposes (see www.dnadvi.nl for details). Commercial licenses can also be obtained. The software uses Bayesian networks and the junction tree algorithm to perform its calculations. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The likelihood of achieving quantified road safety targets: a binary logistic regression model for possible factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Sze, N N; Wong, S C; Lee, C Y

2014-12-01

In past several decades, many countries have set quantified road safety targets to motivate transport authorities to develop systematic road safety strategies and measures and facilitate the achievement of continuous road safety improvement. Studies have been conducted to evaluate the association between the setting of quantified road safety targets and road fatality reduction, in both the short and long run, by comparing road fatalities before and after the implementation of a quantified road safety target. However, not much work has been done to evaluate whether the quantified road safety targets are actually achieved. In this study, we used a binary logistic regression model to examine the factors - including vehicle ownership, fatality rate, and national income, in addition to level of ambition and duration of target - that contribute to a target's success. We analyzed 55 quantified road safety targets set by 29 countries from 1981 to 2009, and the results indicate that targets that are in progress and with lower level of ambitions had a higher likelihood of eventually being achieved. Moreover, possible interaction effects on the association between level of ambition and the likelihood of success are also revealed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Component simulation in problems of calculated model formation of automatic machine mechanisms

OpenAIRE

Telegin Igor; Kozlov Alexander; Zhirkov Alexander

2017-01-01

The paper deals with the problems of the component simulation method application in the problems of the automation of the mechanical system model formation with the further possibility of their CAD-realization. The purpose of the investigations mentioned consists in the automation of the CAD-model formation of high-speed mechanisms in automatic machines and in the analysis of dynamic processes occurred in their units taking into account their elasto-inertial properties, power dissipation, gap...

AUTOMATIC TEXTURE RECONSTRUCTION OF 3D CITY MODEL FROM OBLIQUE IMAGES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Kang

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In recent years, the photorealistic 3D city models are increasingly important in various geospatial applications related to virtual city tourism, 3D GIS, urban planning, real-estate management. Besides the acquisition of high-precision 3D geometric data, texture reconstruction is also a crucial step for generating high-quality and visually realistic 3D models. However, most of the texture reconstruction approaches are probably leading to texture fragmentation and memory inefficiency. In this paper, we introduce an automatic framework of texture reconstruction to generate textures from oblique images for photorealistic visualization. Our approach include three major steps as follows: mesh parameterization, texture atlas generation and texture blending. Firstly, mesh parameterization procedure referring to mesh segmentation and mesh unfolding is performed to reduce geometric distortion in the process of mapping 2D texture to 3D model. Secondly, in the texture atlas generation step, the texture of each segmented region in texture domain is reconstructed from all visible images with exterior orientation and interior orientation parameters. Thirdly, to avoid color discontinuities at boundaries between texture regions, the final texture map is generated by blending texture maps from several corresponding images. We evaluated our texture reconstruction framework on a dataset of a city. The resulting mesh model can get textured by created texture without resampling. Experiment results show that our method can effectively mitigate the occurrence of texture fragmentation. It is demonstrated that the proposed framework is effective and useful for automatic texture reconstruction of 3D city model.

Automatic Generation of 3D Building Models with Multiple Roofs

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Kenichi Sugihara; Yoshitugu Hayashi

2008-01-01

Based on building footprints (building polygons) on digital maps, we are proposing the GIS and CG integrated system that automatically generates 3D building models with multiple roofs. Most building polygons' edges meet at right angles (orthogonal polygon). The integrated system partitions orthogonal building polygons into a set of rectangles and places rectangular roofs and box-shaped building bodies on these rectangles. In order to partition an orthogonal polygon, we proposed a useful polygon expression in deciding from which vertex a dividing line is drawn. In this paper, we propose a new scheme for partitioning building polygons and show the process of creating 3D roof models.

Parallelization of maximum likelihood fits with OpenMP and CUDA

CERN Document Server

Jarp, S; Leduc, J; Nowak, A; Pantaleo, F

2011-01-01

Data analyses based on maximum likelihood fits are commonly used in the high energy physics community for fitting statistical models to data samples. This technique requires the numerical minimization of the negative log-likelihood function. MINUIT is the most common package used for this purpose in the high energy physics community. The main algorithm in this package, MIGRAD, searches the minimum by using the gradient information. The procedure requires several evaluations of the function, depending on the number of free parameters and their initial values. The whole procedure can be very CPU-time consuming in case of complex functions, with several free parameters, many independent variables and large data samples. Therefore, it becomes particularly important to speed-up the evaluation of the negative log-likelihood function. In this paper we present an algorithm and its implementation which benefits from data vectorization and parallelization (based on OpenMP) and which was also ported to Graphics Processi...

CONSTRUCTING A FLEXIBLE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION FOR SPECTROSCOPIC INFERENCE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Czekala, Ian; Andrews, Sean M.; Mandel, Kaisey S.; Green, Gregory M.; Hogg, David W.

2015-01-01

We present a modular, extensible likelihood framework for spectroscopic inference based on synthetic model spectra. The subtraction of an imperfect model from a continuously sampled spectrum introduces covariance between adjacent datapoints (pixels) into the residual spectrum. For the high signal-to-noise data with large spectral range that is commonly employed in stellar astrophysics, that covariant structure can lead to dramatically underestimated parameter uncertainties (and, in some cases, biases). We construct a likelihood function that accounts for the structure of the covariance matrix, utilizing the machinery of Gaussian process kernels. This framework specifically addresses the common problem of mismatches in model spectral line strengths (with respect to data) due to intrinsic model imperfections (e.g., in the atomic/molecular databases or opacity prescriptions) by developing a novel local covariance kernel formalism that identifies and self-consistently downweights pathological spectral line “outliers.” By fitting many spectra in a hierarchical manner, these local kernels provide a mechanism to learn about and build data-driven corrections to synthetic spectral libraries. An open-source software implementation of this approach is available at http://iancze.github.io/Starfish, including a sophisticated probabilistic scheme for spectral interpolation when using model libraries that are sparsely sampled in the stellar parameters. We demonstrate some salient features of the framework by fitting the high-resolution V-band spectrum of WASP-14, an F5 dwarf with a transiting exoplanet, and the moderate-resolution K-band spectrum of Gliese 51, an M5 field dwarf

Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Generalized Long-Memory Time Series Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mesters, G.; Koopman, S.J.; Ooms, M.

2016-01-01

An exact maximum likelihood method is developed for the estimation of parameters in a non-Gaussian nonlinear density function that depends on a latent Gaussian dynamic process with long-memory properties. Our method relies on the method of importance sampling and on a linear Gaussian approximating

Maximum likelihood estimation for Cox's regression model under nested case-control sampling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheike, Thomas; Juul, Anders

2004-01-01

Nested case-control sampling is designed to reduce the costs of large cohort studies. It is important to estimate the parameters of interest as efficiently as possible. We present a new maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for nested case-control sampling in the context of Cox's proportional hazard...

Automatic segmentation of the bone and extraction of the bone-cartilage interface from magnetic resonance images of the knee

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fripp, Jurgen; Crozier, Stuart; Warfield, Simon K; Ourselin, Sebastien

2007-01-01

The accurate segmentation of the articular cartilages from magnetic resonance (MR) images of the knee is important for clinical studies and drug trials into conditions like osteoarthritis. Currently, segmentations are obtained using time-consuming manual or semi-automatic algorithms which have high inter- and intra-observer variabilities. This paper presents an important step towards obtaining automatic and accurate segmentations of the cartilages, namely an approach to automatically segment the bones and extract the bone-cartilage interfaces (BCI) in the knee. The segmentation is performed using three-dimensional active shape models, which are initialized using an affine registration to an atlas. The BCI are then extracted using image information and prior knowledge about the likelihood of each point belonging to the interface. The accuracy and robustness of the approach was experimentally validated using an MR database of fat suppressed spoiled gradient recall images. The (femur, tibia, patella) bone segmentation had a median Dice similarity coefficient of (0.96, 0.96, 0.89) and an average point-to-surface error of 0.16 mm on the BCI. The extracted BCI had a median surface overlap of 0.94 with the real interface, demonstrating its usefulness for subsequent cartilage segmentation or quantitative analysis

Automatic segmentation of the bone and extraction of the bone-cartilage interface from magnetic resonance images of the knee

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fripp, Jurgen [BioMedIA Lab, Autonomous Systems Laboratory, CSIRO ICT Centre, Level 20, 300 Adelaide street, Brisbane, QLD 4001 (Australia); Crozier, Stuart [School of Information Technology and Electrical Engineering, University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072 (Australia); Warfield, Simon K [Computational Radiology Laboratory, Harvard Medical School, Children' s Hospital Boston, 300 Longwood Avenue, Boston, MA 02115 (United States); Ourselin, Sebastien [BioMedIA Lab, Autonomous Systems Laboratory, CSIRO ICT Centre, Level 20, 300 Adelaide street, Brisbane, QLD 4001 (Australia)

2007-03-21

The accurate segmentation of the articular cartilages from magnetic resonance (MR) images of the knee is important for clinical studies and drug trials into conditions like osteoarthritis. Currently, segmentations are obtained using time-consuming manual or semi-automatic algorithms which have high inter- and intra-observer variabilities. This paper presents an important step towards obtaining automatic and accurate segmentations of the cartilages, namely an approach to automatically segment the bones and extract the bone-cartilage interfaces (BCI) in the knee. The segmentation is performed using three-dimensional active shape models, which are initialized using an affine registration to an atlas. The BCI are then extracted using image information and prior knowledge about the likelihood of each point belonging to the interface. The accuracy and robustness of the approach was experimentally validated using an MR database of fat suppressed spoiled gradient recall images. The (femur, tibia, patella) bone segmentation had a median Dice similarity coefficient of (0.96, 0.96, 0.89) and an average point-to-surface error of 0.16 mm on the BCI. The extracted BCI had a median surface overlap of 0.94 with the real interface, demonstrating its usefulness for subsequent cartilage segmentation or quantitative analysis.

Pendeteksian Outlier pada Regresi Nonlinier dengan Metode statistik Likelihood Displacement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Siti Tabi'atul Hasanah

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Outlier is an observation that much different (extreme from the other observational data, or data can be interpreted that do not follow the general pattern of the model. Sometimes outliers provide information that can not be provided by other data. That's why outliers should not just be eliminated. Outliers can also be an influential observation. There are many methods that can be used to detect of outliers. In previous studies done on outlier detection of linear regression. Next will be developed detection of outliers in nonlinear regression. Nonlinear regression here is devoted to multiplicative nonlinear regression. To detect is use of statistical method likelihood displacement. Statistical methods abbreviated likelihood displacement (LD is a method to detect outliers by removing the suspected outlier data. To estimate the parameters are used to the maximum likelihood method, so we get the estimate of the maximum. By using LD method is obtained i.e likelihood displacement is thought to contain outliers. Further accuracy of LD method in detecting the outliers are shown by comparing the MSE of LD with the MSE from the regression in general. Statistic test used is Λ. Initial hypothesis was rejected when proved so is an outlier.

DeepSleepNet: A Model for Automatic Sleep Stage Scoring Based on Raw Single-Channel EEG.

Science.gov (United States)

Supratak, Akara; Dong, Hao; Wu, Chao; Guo, Yike

2017-11-01

This paper proposes a deep learning model, named DeepSleepNet, for automatic sleep stage scoring based on raw single-channel EEG. Most of the existing methods rely on hand-engineered features, which require prior knowledge of sleep analysis. Only a few of them encode the temporal information, such as transition rules, which is important for identifying the next sleep stages, into the extracted features. In the proposed model, we utilize convolutional neural networks to extract time-invariant features, and bidirectional-long short-term memory to learn transition rules among sleep stages automatically from EEG epochs. We implement a two-step training algorithm to train our model efficiently. We evaluated our model using different single-channel EEGs (F4-EOG (left), Fpz-Cz, and Pz-Oz) from two public sleep data sets, that have different properties (e.g., sampling rate) and scoring standards (AASM and R&K). The results showed that our model achieved similar overall accuracy and macro F1-score (MASS: 86.2%-81.7, Sleep-EDF: 82.0%-76.9) compared with the state-of-the-art methods (MASS: 85.9%-80.5, Sleep-EDF: 78.9%-73.7) on both data sets. This demonstrated that, without changing the model architecture and the training algorithm, our model could automatically learn features for sleep stage scoring from different raw single-channel EEGs from different data sets without utilizing any hand-engineered features.

Maximum Likelihood Approach for RFID Tag Set Cardinality Estimation with Detection Errors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nguyen, Chuyen T.; Hayashi, Kazunori; Kaneko, Megumi

2013-01-01

Abstract Estimation schemes of Radio Frequency IDentification (RFID) tag set cardinality are studied in this paper using Maximum Likelihood (ML) approach. We consider the estimation problem under the model of multiple independent reader sessions with detection errors due to unreliable radio...... is evaluated under dierent system parameters and compared with that of the conventional method via computer simulations assuming flat Rayleigh fading environments and framed-slotted ALOHA based protocol. Keywords RFID tag cardinality estimation maximum likelihood detection error...

A maximum likelihood framework for protein design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philippe Hervé

2006-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of protein design is to predict amino-acid sequences compatible with a given target structure. Traditionally envisioned as a purely thermodynamic question, this problem can also be understood in a wider context, where additional constraints are captured by learning the sequence patterns displayed by natural proteins of known conformation. In this latter perspective, however, we still need a theoretical formalization of the question, leading to general and efficient learning methods, and allowing for the selection of fast and accurate objective functions quantifying sequence/structure compatibility. Results We propose a formulation of the protein design problem in terms of model-based statistical inference. Our framework uses the maximum likelihood principle to optimize the unknown parameters of a statistical potential, which we call an inverse potential to contrast with classical potentials used for structure prediction. We propose an implementation based on Markov chain Monte Carlo, in which the likelihood is maximized by gradient descent and is numerically estimated by thermodynamic integration. The fit of the models is evaluated by cross-validation. We apply this to a simple pairwise contact potential, supplemented with a solvent-accessibility term, and show that the resulting models have a better predictive power than currently available pairwise potentials. Furthermore, the model comparison method presented here allows one to measure the relative contribution of each component of the potential, and to choose the optimal number of accessibility classes, which turns out to be much higher than classically considered. Conclusion Altogether, this reformulation makes it possible to test a wide diversity of models, using different forms of potentials, or accounting for other factors than just the constraint of thermodynamic stability. Ultimately, such model-based statistical analyses may help to understand the forces

Radiation dosimetry by automatic image analysis of dicentric chromosomes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bayley, R.; Carothers, A.; Farrow, S.; Gordon, J.; Ji, L.; Piper, J.; Rutovitz, D.; Stark, M.; Chen, X.; Wald, N.; Pittsburgh Univ., PA

1991-01-01

A system for scoring dicentric chromosomes by image analysis comprised fully automatic location of mitotic cells, automatic retrieval, focus and digitisation at high resolution, automatic rejection of nuclei and debris and detection and segmentation of chromosome clusters, automatic centromere location, and subsequent rapid interactive visual review of potential dicentric chromosomes to confirm positives and reject false positives. A calibration set of about 15000 cells was used to establish the quadratic dose response for 60 Co γ-irradiation. The dose-response function parameters were established by a maximum likelihood technique, and confidence limits in the dose response and in the corresponding inverse curve, of estimated dose for observed dicentric frequency, were established by Monte Carlo techniques. The system was validated in a blind trial by analysing a test comprising a total of about 8000 cells irradiated to 1 of 10 dose levels, and estimating the doses from the observed dicentric frequency. There was a close correspondence between the estimated and true doses. The overall sensitivity of the system in terms of the proportion of the total population of dicentrics present in the cells analysed that were detected by the system was measured to be about 40%. This implies that about 2.5 times more cells must be analysed by machine than by visual analysis. Taking this factor into account, the measured review time and false positive rates imply that analysis by the system of sufficient cells to provide the equivalent of a visual analysis of 500 cells would require about 1 h for operator review. (author). 20 refs.; 4 figs.; 5 tabs

PEST modules with regularization for the acceleration of the automatic calibration in hydrodynamic models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Polomčić Dušan M.

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The calibration process of hydrodynamic model is done usually manually by 'testing' with different values of hydrogeological parameters and hydraulic characteristics of the boundary conditions. By using the PEST program, automatic calibration of models has been introduced, and it has proved to significantly reduce the subjective influence of the model creator on results. With the relatively new approach of PEST, i.e. with the introduction of so-called 'pilot points', the concept of homogeneous zones with parameter values of porous media or zones with the given boundary conditions has been outdated. However, the consequence of this kind of automatic calibration is that a significant amount of time is required to perform the calculation. The duration of calibration is measured in hours, sometimes even days. PEST contains two modules for the shortening of that process - Parallel PEST and BeoPEST. The paper presents performed experiments and analysis of different cases of PEST module usage, based on which the reduction in the time required to calibrate the model is done.

A Method for Modeling the Virtual Instrument Automatic Test System Based on the Petri Net

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

MA Min; CHEN Guang-ju

2005-01-01

Virtual instrument is playing the important role in automatic test system. This paper introduces a composition of a virtual instrument automatic test system and takes the VXIbus based a test software platform which is developed by CAT lab of the UESTC as an example. Then a method to model this system based on Petri net is proposed. Through this method, we can analyze the test task scheduling to prevent the deadlock or resources conflict. At last, this paper analyzes the feasibility of this method.

The Laplace Likelihood Ratio Test for Heteroscedasticity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Martin van Zyl

2011-01-01

Full Text Available It is shown that the likelihood ratio test for heteroscedasticity, assuming the Laplace distribution, gives good results for Gaussian and fat-tailed data. The likelihood ratio test, assuming normality, is very sensitive to any deviation from normality, especially when the observations are from a distribution with fat tails. Such a likelihood test can also be used as a robust test for a constant variance in residuals or a time series if the data is partitioned into groups.

Audio-visual Classification and Fusion of Spontaneous Affect Data in Likelihood Space

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nicolaou, Mihalis A.; Gunes, Hatice; Pantic, Maja

2010-01-01

This paper focuses on audio-visual (using facial expression, shoulder and audio cues) classification of spontaneous affect, utilising generative models for classification (i) in terms of Maximum Likelihood Classification with the assumption that the generative model structure in the classifier is

Development of a new model to evaluate the probability of automatic plant trips for pressurized water reactors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shimada, Yoshio [Institute of Nuclear Safety System Inc., Mihama, Fukui (Japan); Kawai, Katsunori; Suzuki, Hiroshi [Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

2001-09-01

In order to improve the reliability of plant operations for pressurized water reactors, a new fault tree model was developed to evaluate the probability of automatic plant trips. This model consists of fault trees for sixteen systems. It has the following features: (1) human errors and transmission line incidents are modeled by the existing data, (2) the repair of failed components is considered to calculate the failure probability of components, (3) uncertainty analysis is performed by an exact method. From the present results, it is confirmed that the obtained upper and lower bound values of the automatic plant trip probability are within the existing data bound in Japan. Thereby this model can be applicable to the prediction of plant performance and reliability. (author)

Automatic orientation and 3D modelling from markerless rock art imagery

Science.gov (United States)

Lerma, J. L.; Navarro, S.; Cabrelles, M.; Seguí, A. E.; Hernández, D.

2013-02-01

This paper investigates the use of two detectors and descriptors on image pyramids for automatic image orientation and generation of 3D models. The detectors and descriptors replace manual measurements and are used to detect, extract and match features across multiple imagery. The Scale-Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT) and the Speeded Up Robust Features (SURF) will be assessed based on speed, number of features, matched features, and precision in image and object space depending on the adopted hierarchical matching scheme. The influence of applying in addition Area Based Matching (ABM) with normalised cross-correlation (NCC) and least squares matching (LSM) is also investigated. The pipeline makes use of photogrammetric and computer vision algorithms aiming minimum interaction and maximum accuracy from a calibrated camera. Both the exterior orientation parameters and the 3D coordinates in object space are sequentially estimated combining relative orientation, single space resection and bundle adjustment. The fully automatic image-based pipeline presented herein to automate the image orientation step of a sequence of terrestrial markerless imagery is compared with manual bundle block adjustment and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) which serves as ground truth. The benefits of applying ABM after FBM will be assessed both in image and object space for the 3D modelling of a complex rock art shelter.

LASER: A Maximum Likelihood Toolkit for Detecting Temporal Shifts in Diversification Rates From Molecular Phylogenies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel L. Rabosky

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Rates of species origination and extinction can vary over time during evolutionary radiations, and it is possible to reconstruct the history of diversification using molecular phylogenies of extant taxa only. Maximum likelihood methods provide a useful framework for inferring temporal variation in diversification rates. LASER is a package for the R programming environment that implements maximum likelihood methods based on the birth-death process to test whether diversification rates have changed over time. LASER contrasts the likelihood of phylogenetic data under models where diversification rates have changed over time to alternative models where rates have remained constant over time. Major strengths of the package include the ability to detect temporal increases in diversification rates and the inference of diversification parameters under multiple rate-variable models of diversification. The program and associated documentation are freely available from the R package archive at http://cran.r-project.org.

Automatic Generation of Building Models with Levels of Detail 1-3

Science.gov (United States)

Nguatem, W.; Drauschke, M.; Mayer, H.

2016-06-01

We present a workflow for the automatic generation of building models with levels of detail (LOD) 1 to 3 according to the CityGML standard (Gröger et al., 2012). We start with orienting unsorted image sets employing (Mayer et al., 2012), we compute depth maps using semi-global matching (SGM) (Hirschmüller, 2008), and fuse these depth maps to reconstruct dense 3D point clouds (Kuhn et al., 2014). Based on planes segmented from these point clouds, we have developed a stochastic method for roof model selection (Nguatem et al., 2013) and window model selection (Nguatem et al., 2014). We demonstrate our workflow up to the export into CityGML.

TMB: Automatic differentiation and laplace approximation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Kasper; Nielsen, Anders; Berg, Casper Willestofte

2016-01-01

TMB is an open source R package that enables quick implementation of complex nonlinear random effects (latent variable) models in a manner similar to the established AD Model Builder package (ADMB, http://admb-project.org/; Fournier et al. 2011). In addition, it offers easy access to parallel...... computations. The user defines the joint likelihood for the data and the random effects as a C++ template function, while all the other operations are done in R; e.g., reading in the data. The package evaluates and maximizes the Laplace approximation of the marginal likelihood where the random effects...

Planck 2015 results. XI. CMB power spectra, likelihoods, and robustness of parameters

CERN Document Server

Aghanim, N.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartlett, J.G.; Bartolo, N.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit, A.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Boulanger, F.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.F.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Clements, D.L.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Combet, C.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Desert, F.X.; Di Valentino, E.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J.M.; Dolag, K.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Dore, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dunkley, J.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Ensslin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Fergusson, J.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A.A.; Franceschi, E.; Frejsel, A.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Gauthier, C.; Gerbino, M.; Giard, M.; Gjerlow, E.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J.E.; Hamann, J.; Hansen, F.K.; Harrison, D.L.; Helou, G.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kiiveri, K.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lahteenmaki, A.; Lamarre, J.M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C.R.; Le Jeune, M.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Levrier, F.; Lewis, A.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Lilley, M.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Lindholm, V.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; Maffei, B.; Maggio, G.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Maris, M.; Martin, P.G.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Millea, M.; Miville-Deschenes, M.A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J.A.; Narimani, A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Partridge, B.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Pearson, T.J.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Ponthieu, N.; Pratt, G.W.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Rachen, J.P.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Renzi, A.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rossetti, M.; Roudier, G.; d'Orfeuil, B.Rouille; Rubino-Martin, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Salvati, L.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Serra, P.; Spencer, L.D.; Spinelli, M.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Trombetti, T.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Wehus, I.K.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

2016-01-01

This paper presents the Planck 2015 likelihoods, statistical descriptions of the 2-point correlation functions of CMB temperature and polarization. They use the hybrid approach employed previously: pixel-based at low multipoles, $\\ell$, and a Gaussian approximation to the distribution of cross-power spectra at higher $\\ell$. The main improvements are the use of more and better processed data and of Planck polarization data, and more detailed foreground and instrumental models. More than doubling the data allows further checks and enhanced immunity to systematics. Progress in foreground modelling enables a larger sky fraction, contributing to enhanced precision. Improvements in processing and instrumental models further reduce uncertainties. Extensive tests establish robustness and accuracy, from temperature, from polarization, and from their combination, and show that the {\\Lambda}CDM model continues to offer a very good fit. We further validate the likelihood against specific extensions to this baseline, suc...

Maximum likelihood convolutional decoding (MCD) performance due to system losses

Science.gov (United States)

Webster, L.

1976-01-01

A model for predicting the computational performance of a maximum likelihood convolutional decoder (MCD) operating in a noisy carrier reference environment is described. This model is used to develop a subroutine that will be utilized by the Telemetry Analysis Program to compute the MCD bit error rate. When this computational model is averaged over noisy reference phase errors using a high-rate interpolation scheme, the results are found to agree quite favorably with experimental measurements.

A Predictive Likelihood Approach to Bayesian Averaging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomáš Jeřábek

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Multivariate time series forecasting is applied in a wide range of economic activities related to regional competitiveness and is the basis of almost all macroeconomic analysis. In this paper we combine multivariate density forecasts of GDP growth, inflation and real interest rates from four various models, two type of Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR models, a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE model of small open economy and DSGE-VAR model. The performance of models is identified using historical dates including domestic economy and foreign economy, which is represented by countries of the Eurozone. Because forecast accuracy of observed models are different, the weighting scheme based on the predictive likelihood, the trace of past MSE matrix, model ranks are used to combine the models. The equal-weight scheme is used as a simple combination scheme. The results show that optimally combined densities are comparable to the best individual models.

Hidden Markov models in automatic speech recognition

Science.gov (United States)

Wrzoskowicz, Adam

1993-11-01

This article describes a method for constructing an automatic speech recognition system based on hidden Markov models (HMMs). The author discusses the basic concepts of HMM theory and the application of these models to the analysis and recognition of speech signals. The author provides algorithms which make it possible to train the ASR system and recognize signals on the basis of distinct stochastic models of selected speech sound classes. The author describes the specific components of the system and the procedures used to model and recognize speech. The author discusses problems associated with the choice of optimal signal detection and parameterization characteristics and their effect on the performance of the system. The author presents different options for the choice of speech signal segments and their consequences for the ASR process. The author gives special attention to the use of lexical, syntactic, and semantic information for the purpose of improving the quality and efficiency of the system. The author also describes an ASR system developed by the Speech Acoustics Laboratory of the IBPT PAS. The author discusses the results of experiments on the effect of noise on the performance of the ASR system and describes methods of constructing HMM's designed to operate in a noisy environment. The author also describes a language for human-robot communications which was defined as a complex multilevel network from an HMM model of speech sounds geared towards Polish inflections. The author also added mandatory lexical and syntactic rules to the system for its communications vocabulary.

Model of Random Polygon Particles for Concrete and Mesh Automatic Subdivision

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2001-01-01

In order to study the constitutive behavior of concrete in mesoscopic level, a new method is proposed in this paper. This method uses random polygon particles to simulate full grading broken aggregates of concrete. Based on computational geometry, we carry out the automatic generation of the triangle finite element mesh for the model of random polygon particles of concrete. The finite element mesh generated in this paper is also applicable to many other numerical methods.

Using computer-extracted image features for modeling of error-making patterns in detection of mammographic masses among radiology residents.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jing; Lo, Joseph Y; Kuzmiak, Cherie M; Ghate, Sujata V; Yoon, Sora C; Mazurowski, Maciej A

2014-09-01

Mammography is the most widely accepted and utilized screening modality for early breast cancer detection. Providing high quality mammography education to radiology trainees is essential, since excellent interpretation skills are needed to ensure the highest benefit of screening mammography for patients. The authors have previously proposed a computer-aided education system based on trainee models. Those models relate human-assessed image characteristics to trainee error. In this study, the authors propose to build trainee models that utilize features automatically extracted from images using computer vision algorithms to predict likelihood of missing each mass by the trainee. This computer vision-based approach to trainee modeling will allow for automatically searching large databases of mammograms in order to identify challenging cases for each trainee. The authors' algorithm for predicting the likelihood of missing a mass consists of three steps. First, a mammogram is segmented into air, pectoral muscle, fatty tissue, dense tissue, and mass using automated segmentation algorithms. Second, 43 features are extracted using computer vision algorithms for each abnormality identified by experts. Third, error-making models (classifiers) are applied to predict the likelihood of trainees missing the abnormality based on the extracted features. The models are developed individually for each trainee using his/her previous reading data. The authors evaluated the predictive performance of the proposed algorithm using data from a reader study in which 10 subjects (7 residents and 3 novices) and 3 experts read 100 mammographic cases. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) methodology was applied for the evaluation. The average area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the error-making models for the task of predicting which masses will be detected and which will be missed was 0.607 (95% CI,0.564-0.650). This value was statistically significantly different from 0.5 (perror

Towards the Availability of the Distributed Cluster Rendering System: Automatic Modeling and Verification

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Kemin; Jiang, Zhengtao; Wang, Yongbin

2012-01-01

, whenever the number of node-n and related parameters vary, we can create the PRISM model file rapidly and then we can use PRISM model checker to verify ralated system properties. At the end of this study, we analyzed and verified the availability distributions of the Distributed Cluster Rendering System......In this study, we proposed a Continuous Time Markov Chain Model towards the availability of n-node clusters of Distributed Rendering System. It's an infinite one, we formalized it, based on the model, we implemented a software, which can automatically model with PRISM language. With the tool...

Automatic analysis of flow cytometric DNA histograms from irradiated mouse male germ cells

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lampariello, F.; Mauro, F.; Uccelli, R.; Spano, M.

1989-01-01

An automatic procedure for recovering the DNA content distribution of mouse irradiated testis cells from flow cytometric histograms is presented. First, a suitable mathematical model is developed, to represent the pattern of DNA content and fluorescence distribution in the sample. Then a parameter estimation procedure, based on the maximum likelihood approach, is constructed by means of an optimization technique. This procedure has been applied to a set of DNA histograms relative to different doses of 0.4-MeV neutrons and to different time intervals after irradiation. In each case, a good agreement between the measured histograms and the corresponding fits has been obtained. The results indicate that the proposed method for the quantitative analysis of germ cell DNA histograms can be usefully applied to the study of the cytotoxic and mutagenic action of agents of toxicological interest such as ionizing radiations.18 references

Towards Automatic Semantic Labelling of 3D City Models

Science.gov (United States)

Rook, M.; Biljecki, F.; Diakité, A. A.

2016-10-01

The lack of semantic information in many 3D city models is a considerable limiting factor in their use, as a lot of applications rely on semantics. Such information is not always available, since it is not collected at all times, it might be lost due to data transformation, or its lack may be caused by non-interoperability in data integration from other sources. This research is a first step in creating an automatic workflow that semantically labels plain 3D city model represented by a soup of polygons, with semantic and thematic information, as defined in the CityGML standard. The first step involves the reconstruction of the topology, which is used in a region growing algorithm that clusters upward facing adjacent triangles. Heuristic rules, embedded in a decision tree, are used to compute a likeliness score for these regions that either represent the ground (terrain) or a RoofSurface. Regions with a high likeliness score, to one of the two classes, are used to create a decision space, which is used in a support vector machine (SVM). Next, topological relations are utilised to select seeds that function as a start in a region growing algorithm, to create regions of triangles of other semantic classes. The topological relationships of the regions are used in the aggregation of the thematic building features. Finally, the level of detail is detected to generate the correct output in CityGML. The results show an accuracy between 85 % and 99 % in the automatic semantic labelling on four different test datasets. The paper is concluded by indicating problems and difficulties implying the next steps in the research.

Constraint optimization model of a scheduling problem for a robotic arm in automatic systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristiansen, Ewa; Smith, Stephen F.; Kristiansen, Morten

2014-01-01

are characteristics of the painting process application itself. Unlike spot-welding, painting tasks require movement of the entire robot arm. In addition to minimizing intertask duration, the scheduler must strive to maximize painting quality and the problem is formulated as a multi-objective optimization problem....... The scheduling model is implemented as a stand-alone module using constraint programming, and integrated with a larger automatic system. The results of a number of simulation experiments with simple parts are reported, both to characterize the functionality of the scheduler and to illustrate the operation...... of the entire software system for automatic generation of robot programs for painting....

Automatic Bayes Factors for Testing Equality- and Inequality-Constrained Hypotheses on Variances.

Science.gov (United States)

Böing-Messing, Florian; Mulder, Joris

2018-05-03

In comparing characteristics of independent populations, researchers frequently expect a certain structure of the population variances. These expectations can be formulated as hypotheses with equality and/or inequality constraints on the variances. In this article, we consider the Bayes factor for testing such (in)equality-constrained hypotheses on variances. Application of Bayes factors requires specification of a prior under every hypothesis to be tested. However, specifying subjective priors for variances based on prior information is a difficult task. We therefore consider so-called automatic or default Bayes factors. These methods avoid the need for the user to specify priors by using information from the sample data. We present three automatic Bayes factors for testing variances. The first is a Bayes factor with equal priors on all variances, where the priors are specified automatically using a small share of the information in the sample data. The second is the fractional Bayes factor, where a fraction of the likelihood is used for automatic prior specification. The third is an adjustment of the fractional Bayes factor such that the parsimony of inequality-constrained hypotheses is properly taken into account. The Bayes factors are evaluated by investigating different properties such as information consistency and large sample consistency. Based on this evaluation, it is concluded that the adjusted fractional Bayes factor is generally recommendable for testing equality- and inequality-constrained hypotheses on variances.

Semiparametric profile likelihood estimation for continuous outcomes with excess zeros in a random-threshold damage-resistance model.

Science.gov (United States)

Rice, John D; Tsodikov, Alex

2017-05-30

Continuous outcome data with a proportion of observations equal to zero (often referred to as semicontinuous data) arise frequently in biomedical studies. Typical approaches involve two-part models, with one part a logistic model for the probability of observing a zero and some parametric continuous distribution for modeling the positive part of the data. We propose a semiparametric model based on a biological system with competing damage manifestation and resistance processes. This allows us to derive a closed-form profile likelihood based on the retro-hazard function, leading to a flexible procedure for modeling continuous data with a point mass at zero. A simulation study is presented to examine the properties of the method in finite samples. We apply the method to a data set consisting of pulmonary capillary hemorrhage area in lab rats subjected to diagnostic ultrasound. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The equivalence of information-theoretic and likelihood-based methods for neural dimensionality reduction.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ross S Williamson

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Stimulus dimensionality-reduction methods in neuroscience seek to identify a low-dimensional space of stimulus features that affect a neuron's probability of spiking. One popular method, known as maximally informative dimensions (MID, uses an information-theoretic quantity known as "single-spike information" to identify this space. Here we examine MID from a model-based perspective. We show that MID is a maximum-likelihood estimator for the parameters of a linear-nonlinear-Poisson (LNP model, and that the empirical single-spike information corresponds to the normalized log-likelihood under a Poisson model. This equivalence implies that MID does not necessarily find maximally informative stimulus dimensions when spiking is not well described as Poisson. We provide several examples to illustrate this shortcoming, and derive a lower bound on the information lost when spiking is Bernoulli in discrete time bins. To overcome this limitation, we introduce model-based dimensionality reduction methods for neurons with non-Poisson firing statistics, and show that they can be framed equivalently in likelihood-based or information-theoretic terms. Finally, we show how to overcome practical limitations on the number of stimulus dimensions that MID can estimate by constraining the form of the non-parametric nonlinearity in an LNP model. We illustrate these methods with simulations and data from primate visual cortex.

Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

2015-07-01

Compared to the remarkable progress in risk analysis of normal accidents, the risk analysis of major accidents has not been so well-established, partly due to the complexity of such accidents and partly due to low probabilities involved. The issue of low probabilities normally arises from the scarcity of major accidents' relevant data since such accidents are few and far between. In this work, knowing that major accidents are frequently preceded by accident precursors, a novel precursor-based methodology has been developed for likelihood modeling of major accidents in critical infrastructures based on a unique combination of accident precursor data, information theory, and approximate reasoning. For this purpose, we have introduced an innovative application of information analysis to identify the most informative near accident of a major accident. The observed data of the near accident were then used to establish predictive scenarios to foresee the occurrence of the major accident. We verified the methodology using offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, and then demonstrated its application to dam breaches in the United Sates. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

PEST modules with regularization for the acceleration of the automatic calibration in hydrodynamic models

OpenAIRE

Polomčić, Dušan M.; Bajić, Dragoljub I.; Močević, Jelena M.

2015-01-01

The calibration process of hydrodynamic model is done usually manually by 'testing' with different values of hydrogeological parameters and hydraulic characteristics of the boundary conditions. By using the PEST program, automatic calibration of models has been introduced, and it has proved to significantly reduce the subjective influence of the model creator on results. With the relatively new approach of PEST, i.e. with the introduction of so-called 'pilot points', the concept of homogeneou...

Modelling time course gene expression data with finite mixtures of linear additive models.

Science.gov (United States)

Grün, Bettina; Scharl, Theresa; Leisch, Friedrich

2012-01-15

A model class of finite mixtures of linear additive models is presented. The component-specific parameters in the regression models are estimated using regularized likelihood methods. The advantages of the regularization are that (i) the pre-specified maximum degrees of freedom for the splines is less crucial than for unregularized estimation and that (ii) for each component individually a suitable degree of freedom is selected in an automatic way. The performance is evaluated in a simulation study with artificial data as well as on a yeast cell cycle dataset of gene expression levels over time. The latest release version of the R package flexmix is available from CRAN (http://cran.r-project.org/).

Improved Likelihood Function in Particle-based IR Eye Tracking

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Satria, R.; Sorensen, J.; Hammoud, R.

2005-01-01

In this paper we propose a log likelihood-ratio function of foreground and background models used in a particle filter to track the eye region in dark-bright pupil image sequences. This model fuses information from both dark and bright pupil images and their difference image into one model. Our...... enhanced tracker overcomes the issues of prior selection of static thresholds during the detection of feature observations in the bright-dark difference images. The auto-initialization process is performed using cascaded classifier trained using adaboost and adapted to IR eye images. Experiments show good...

A biclustering algorithm for binary matrices based on penalized Bernoulli likelihood

KAUST Repository

Lee, Seokho; Huang, Jianhua Z.

2013-01-01

We propose a new biclustering method for binary data matrices using the maximum penalized Bernoulli likelihood estimation. Our method applies a multi-layer model defined on the logits of the success probabilities, where each layer represents a

Automatic construction of 3D-ASM intensity models by simulating image acquisition: application to myocardial gated SPECT studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Tobon-Gomez, Catalina; Butakoff, Constantine; Aguade, Santiago; Sukno, Federico; Moragas, Gloria; Frangi, Alejandro F

2008-11-01

Active shape models bear a great promise for model-based medical image analysis. Their practical use, though, is undermined due to the need to train such models on large image databases. Automatic building of point distribution models (PDMs) has been successfully addressed and a number of autolandmarking techniques are currently available. However, the need for strategies to automatically build intensity models around each landmark has been largely overlooked in the literature. This work demonstrates the potential of creating intensity models automatically by simulating image generation. We show that it is possible to reuse a 3D PDM built from computed tomography (CT) to segment gated single photon emission computed tomography (gSPECT) studies. Training is performed on a realistic virtual population where image acquisition and formation have been modeled using the SIMIND Monte Carlo simulator and ASPIRE image reconstruction software, respectively. The dataset comprised 208 digital phantoms (4D-NCAT) and 20 clinical studies. The evaluation is accomplished by comparing point-to-surface and volume errors against a proper gold standard. Results show that gSPECT studies can be successfully segmented by models trained under this scheme with subvoxel accuracy. The accuracy in estimated LV function parameters, such as end diastolic volume, end systolic volume, and ejection fraction, ranged from 90.0% to 94.5% for the virtual population and from 87.0% to 89.5% for the clinical population.

A mathematical model of an automatic assembler to stack fuel pellets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jarvis, R.G.; Joynes, R.; Bretzlaff, C.I.

1980-11-01

Fuel elements for CANDU reactors are assembled from stacks of cylindrical UO 2 pellets, with close tolerances on lengths and diameters. Present stacking techniques involve extensive manual operations and they can be speeded up and reduced in cost by an automated device. If gamma-active fuel is handled such a device is essential. An automatic fuel pellet assembly process was modelled mathematically. The model indicated a suitable sequence of pellet manipulations to arrive at a stack length that was always within tolerance. This sequence was used as the inital input for the design of mechanical hardware. The mechanical design and the refinement of the mathematical model proceeded simultaneously. Mechanical constraints were allowed for in the model, and its optimized sequence of operations was incorporated in a microcomputer program to control the mechanical hardware. (auth)

Automatic anatomy recognition via multiobject oriented active shape models.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xinjian; Udupa, Jayaram K; Alavi, Abass; Torigian, Drew A

2010-12-01

This paper studies the feasibility of developing an automatic anatomy recognition (AAR) system in clinical radiology and demonstrates its operation on clinical 2D images. The anatomy recognition method described here consists of two main components: (a) multiobject generalization of OASM and (b) object recognition strategies. The OASM algorithm is generalized to multiple objects by including a model for each object and assigning a cost structure specific to each object in the spirit of live wire. The delineation of multiobject boundaries is done in MOASM via a three level dynamic programming algorithm, wherein the first level is at pixel level which aims to find optimal oriented boundary segments between successive landmarks, the second level is at landmark level which aims to find optimal location for the landmarks, and the third level is at the object level which aims to find optimal arrangement of object boundaries over all objects. The object recognition strategy attempts to find that pose vector (consisting of translation, rotation, and scale component) for the multiobject model that yields the smallest total boundary cost for all objects. The delineation and recognition accuracies were evaluated separately utilizing routine clinical chest CT, abdominal CT, and foot MRI data sets. The delineation accuracy was evaluated in terms of true and false positive volume fractions (TPVF and FPVF). The recognition accuracy was assessed (1) in terms of the size of the space of the pose vectors for the model assembly that yielded high delineation accuracy, (2) as a function of the number of objects and objects' distribution and size in the model, (3) in terms of the interdependence between delineation and recognition, and (4) in terms of the closeness of the optimum recognition result to the global optimum. When multiple objects are included in the model, the delineation accuracy in terms of TPVF can be improved to 97%-98% with a low FPVF of 0.1%-0.2%. Typically, a

Towards an automatic model transformation mechanism from UML state machines to DEVS models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ariel González

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The development of complex event-driven systems requires studies and analysis prior to deployment with the goal of detecting unwanted behavior. UML is a language widely used by the software engineering community for modeling these systems through state machines, among other mechanisms. Currently, these models do not have appropriate execution and simulation tools to analyze the real behavior of systems. Existing tools do not provide appropriate libraries (sampling from a probability distribution, plotting, etc. both to build and to analyze models. Modeling and simulation for design and prototyping of systems are widely used techniques to predict, investigate and compare the performance of systems. In particular, the Discrete Event System Specification (DEVS formalism separates the modeling and simulation; there are several tools available on the market that run and collect information from DEVS models. This paper proposes a model transformation mechanism from UML state machines to DEVS models in the Model-Driven Development (MDD context, through the declarative QVT Relations language, in order to perform simulations using tools, such as PowerDEVS. A mechanism to validate the transformation is proposed. Moreover, examples of application to analyze the behavior of an automatic banking machine and a control system of an elevator are presented.

Assessing compatibility of direct detection data: halo-independent global likelihood analyses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gelmini, Graciela B. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, UCLA,475 Portola Plaza, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States); Huh, Ji-Haeng [CERN Theory Division,CH-1211, Geneva 23 (Switzerland); Witte, Samuel J. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, UCLA,475 Portola Plaza, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States)

2016-10-18

We present two different halo-independent methods to assess the compatibility of several direct dark matter detection data sets for a given dark matter model using a global likelihood consisting of at least one extended likelihood and an arbitrary number of Gaussian or Poisson likelihoods. In the first method we find the global best fit halo function (we prove that it is a unique piecewise constant function with a number of down steps smaller than or equal to a maximum number that we compute) and construct a two-sided pointwise confidence band at any desired confidence level, which can then be compared with those derived from the extended likelihood alone to assess the joint compatibility of the data. In the second method we define a “constrained parameter goodness-of-fit” test statistic, whose p-value we then use to define a “plausibility region” (e.g. where p≥10%). For any halo function not entirely contained within the plausibility region, the level of compatibility of the data is very low (e.g. p<10%). We illustrate these methods by applying them to CDMS-II-Si and SuperCDMS data, assuming dark matter particles with elastic spin-independent isospin-conserving interactions or exothermic spin-independent isospin-violating interactions.

Mathematical modelling and quality indices optimization of automatic control systems of reactor facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Severin, V.P.

2007-01-01

The mathematical modeling of automatic control systems of reactor facility WWER-1000 with various regulator types is considered. The linear and nonlinear models of neutron power control systems of nuclear reactor WWER-1000 with various group numbers of delayed neutrons are designed. The results of optimization of direct quality indexes of neutron power control systems of nuclear reactor WWER-1000 are designed. The identification and optimization of level control systems with various regulator types of steam generator are executed

An analysis on Public Service Announcements (PSA) within the scope of Elaboration Likelihood Model: Orange and Hazelnut Consumption Samples

OpenAIRE

Bical, Adil; Yılmaz, R. Ayhan

2018-01-01

The purpose of the study is to reveal that how persuasion works in public service announcements on hazelnut and orange consumption ones broadcasted in Turkey. According to Petty and Cacioppo, Elaboration Likelihood Model explains the process of persuasion on two routes: central and peripheral. In-depth interviews were conducted to obtain the goal of the study. Respondents were asked whether they process the message of the PSA centrally or peripherally. Advertisements on consumption of hazelnu...

NASCENT: an automatic protein interaction network generation tool for non-model organisms.

Science.gov (United States)

Banky, Daniel; Ordog, Rafael; Grolmusz, Vince

2009-04-24

Large quantity of reliable protein interaction data are available for model organisms in public depositories (e.g., MINT, DIP, HPRD, INTERACT). Most data correspond to experiments with the proteins of Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Drosophila melanogaster, Homo sapiens, Caenorhabditis elegans, Escherichia coli and Mus musculus. For other important organisms the data availability is poor or non-existent. Here we present NASCENT, a completely automatic web-based tool and also a downloadable Java program, capable of modeling and generating protein interaction networks even for non-model organisms. The tool performs protein interaction network modeling through gene-name mapping, and outputs the resulting network in graphical form and also in computer-readable graph-forms, directly applicable by popular network modeling software. http://nascent.pitgroup.org.

Multi-atlas segmentation for abdominal organs with Gaussian mixture models

Science.gov (United States)

Burke, Ryan P.; Xu, Zhoubing; Lee, Christopher P.; Baucom, Rebeccah B.; Poulose, Benjamin K.; Abramson, Richard G.; Landman, Bennett A.

2015-03-01

Abdominal organ segmentation with clinically acquired computed tomography (CT) is drawing increasing interest in the medical imaging community. Gaussian mixture models (GMM) have been extensively used through medical segmentation, most notably in the brain for cerebrospinal fluid / gray matter / white matter differentiation. Because abdominal CT exhibit strong localized intensity characteristics, GMM have recently been incorporated in multi-stage abdominal segmentation algorithms. In the context of variable abdominal anatomy and rich algorithms, it is difficult to assess the marginal contribution of GMM. Herein, we characterize the efficacy of an a posteriori framework that integrates GMM of organ-wise intensity likelihood with spatial priors from multiple target-specific registered labels. In our study, we first manually labeled 100 CT images. Then, we assigned 40 images to use as training data for constructing target-specific spatial priors and intensity likelihoods. The remaining 60 images were evaluated as test targets for segmenting 12 abdominal organs. The overlap between the true and the automatic segmentations was measured by Dice similarity coefficient (DSC). A median improvement of 145% was achieved by integrating the GMM intensity likelihood against the specific spatial prior. The proposed framework opens the opportunities for abdominal organ segmentation by efficiently using both the spatial and appearance information from the atlases, and creates a benchmark for large-scale automatic abdominal segmentation.

Automatic Cell Segmentation in Fluorescence Images of Confluent Cell Monolayers Using Multi-object Geometric Deformable Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Zhen; Bogovic, John A; Carass, Aaron; Ye, Mao; Searson, Peter C; Prince, Jerry L

2013-03-13

With the rapid development of microscopy for cell imaging, there is a strong and growing demand for image analysis software to quantitatively study cell morphology. Automatic cell segmentation is an important step in image analysis. Despite substantial progress, there is still a need to improve the accuracy, efficiency, and adaptability to different cell morphologies. In this paper, we propose a fully automatic method for segmenting cells in fluorescence images of confluent cell monolayers. This method addresses several challenges through a combination of ideas. 1) It realizes a fully automatic segmentation process by first detecting the cell nuclei as initial seeds and then using a multi-object geometric deformable model (MGDM) for final segmentation. 2) To deal with different defects in the fluorescence images, the cell junctions are enhanced by applying an order-statistic filter and principal curvature based image operator. 3) The final segmentation using MGDM promotes robust and accurate segmentation results, and guarantees no overlaps and gaps between neighboring cells. The automatic segmentation results are compared with manually delineated cells, and the average Dice coefficient over all distinguishable cells is 0.88.

Parameter estimation in astronomy through application of the likelihood ratio. [satellite data analysis techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Cash, W.

1979-01-01

Many problems in the experimental estimation of parameters for models can be solved through use of the likelihood ratio test. Applications of the likelihood ratio, with particular attention to photon counting experiments, are discussed. The procedures presented solve a greater range of problems than those currently in use, yet are no more difficult to apply. The procedures are proved analytically, and examples from current problems in astronomy are discussed.

Method for Automatic Selection of Parameters in Normal Tissue Complication Probability Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Christophides, Damianos; Appelt, Ane L; Gusnanto, Arief; Lilley, John; Sebag-Montefiore, David

2018-07-01

To present a fully automatic method to generate multiparameter normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models and compare its results with those of a published model, using the same patient cohort. Data were analyzed from 345 rectal cancer patients treated with external radiation therapy to predict the risk of patients developing grade 1 or ≥2 cystitis. In total, 23 clinical factors were included in the analysis as candidate predictors of cystitis. Principal component analysis was used to decompose the bladder dose-volume histogram into 8 principal components, explaining more than 95% of the variance. The data set of clinical factors and principal components was divided into training (70%) and test (30%) data sets, with the training data set used by the algorithm to compute an NTCP model. The first step of the algorithm was to obtain a bootstrap sample, followed by multicollinearity reduction using the variance inflation factor and genetic algorithm optimization to determine an ordinal logistic regression model that minimizes the Bayesian information criterion. The process was repeated 100 times, and the model with the minimum Bayesian information criterion was recorded on each iteration. The most frequent model was selected as the final "automatically generated model" (AGM). The published model and AGM were fitted on the training data sets, and the risk of cystitis was calculated. The 2 models had no significant differences in predictive performance, both for the training and test data sets (P value > .05) and found similar clinical and dosimetric factors as predictors. Both models exhibited good explanatory performance on the training data set (P values > .44), which was reduced on the test data sets (P values < .05). The predictive value of the AGM is equivalent to that of the expert-derived published model. It demonstrates potential in saving time, tackling problems with a large number of parameters, and standardizing variable selection in NTCP

The development of an automatic recognition system for earmark and earprint comparisons.

Science.gov (United States)

Junod, Stéphane; Pasquier, Julien; Champod, Christophe

2012-10-10

The value of earmarks as an efficient means of personal identification is still subject to debate. It has been argued that the field is lacking a firm systematic and structured data basis to help practitioners to form their conclusions. Typically, there is a paucity of research guiding as to the selectivity of the features used in the comparison process between an earmark and reference earprints taken from an individual. This study proposes a system for the automatic comparison of earprints and earmarks, operating without any manual extraction of key-points or manual annotations. For each donor, a model is created using multiple reference prints, hence capturing the donor within source variability. For each comparison between a mark and a model, images are automatically aligned and a proximity score, based on a normalized 2D correlation coefficient, is calculated. Appropriate use of this score allows deriving a likelihood ratio that can be explored under known state of affairs (both in cases where it is known that the mark has been left by the donor that gave the model and conversely in cases when it is established that the mark originates from a different source). To assess the system performance, a first dataset containing 1229 donors elaborated during the FearID research project was used. Based on these data, for mark-to-print comparisons, the system performed with an equal error rate (EER) of 2.3% and about 88% of marks are found in the first 3 positions of a hitlist. When performing print-to-print transactions, results show an equal error rate of 0.5%. The system was then tested using real-case data obtained from police forces. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

IRT Item Parameter Recovery with Marginal Maximum Likelihood Estimation Using Loglinear Smoothing Models

Science.gov (United States)

Casabianca, Jodi M.; Lewis, Charles

2015-01-01

Loglinear smoothing (LLS) estimates the latent trait distribution while making fewer assumptions about its form and maintaining parsimony, thus leading to more precise item response theory (IRT) item parameter estimates than standard marginal maximum likelihood (MML). This article provides the expectation-maximization algorithm for MML estimation…

DarkBit. A GAMBIT module for computing dark matter observables and likelihoods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bringmann, Torsten; Dal, Lars A. [University of Oslo, Department of Physics, Oslo (Norway); Conrad, Jan; Edsjoe, Joakim; Farmer, Ben [AlbaNova University Centre, Oskar Klein Centre for Cosmoparticle Physics, Stockholm (Sweden); Stockholm University, Department of Physics, Stockholm (Sweden); Cornell, Jonathan M. [McGill University, Department of Physics, Montreal, QC (Canada); Kahlhoefer, Felix; Wild, Sebastian [DESY, Hamburg (Germany); Kvellestad, Anders; Savage, Christopher [NORDITA, Stockholm (Sweden); Putze, Antje [LAPTh, Universite de Savoie, CNRS, Annecy-le-Vieux (France); Scott, Pat [Blackett Laboratory, Imperial College London, Department of Physics, London (United Kingdom); Weniger, Christoph [University of Amsterdam, GRAPPA, Institute of Physics, Amsterdam (Netherlands); White, Martin [University of Adelaide, Department of Physics, Adelaide, SA (Australia); Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale, Parkville (Australia); Collaboration: The GAMBIT Dark Matter Workgroup

2017-12-15

We introduce DarkBit, an advanced software code for computing dark matter constraints on various extensions to the Standard Model of particle physics, comprising both new native code and interfaces to external packages. This release includes a dedicated signal yield calculator for gamma-ray observations, which significantly extends current tools by implementing a cascade-decay Monte Carlo, as well as a dedicated likelihood calculator for current and future experiments (gamLike). This provides a general solution for studying complex particle physics models that predict dark matter annihilation to a multitude of final states. We also supply a direct detection package that models a large range of direct detection experiments (DDCalc), and that provides the corresponding likelihoods for arbitrary combinations of spin-independent and spin-dependent scattering processes. Finally, we provide custom relic density routines along with interfaces to DarkSUSY, micrOMEGAs, and the neutrino telescope likelihood package nulike. DarkBit is written in the framework of the Global And Modular Beyond the Standard Model Inference Tool (GAMBIT), providing seamless integration into a comprehensive statistical fitting framework that allows users to explore new models with both particle and astrophysics constraints, and a consistent treatment of systematic uncertainties. In this paper we describe its main functionality, provide a guide to getting started quickly, and show illustrative examples for results obtained with DarkBit (both as a stand-alone tool and as a GAMBIT module). This includes a quantitative comparison between two of the main dark matter codes (DarkSUSY and micrOMEGAs), and application of DarkBit's advanced direct and indirect detection routines to a simple effective dark matter model. (orig.)

Unidirectional high fiber content composites: Automatic 3D FE model generation and damage simulation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qing, Hai; Mishnaevsky, Leon

2009-01-01

A new method and a software code for the automatic generation of 3D micromechanical FE models of unidirectional long-fiber-reinforced composite (LFRC) with high fiber volume fraction with random fiber arrangement are presented. The fiber arrangement in the cross-section is generated through random...

Automatic delineation of geomorphological slope units with r.slopeunits v1.0 and their optimization for landslide susceptibility modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Alvioli

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Automatic subdivision of landscapes into terrain units remains a challenge. Slope units are terrain units bounded by drainage and divide lines, but their use in hydrological and geomorphological studies is limited because of the lack of reliable software for their automatic delineation. We present the r.slopeunits software for the automatic delineation of slope units, given a digital elevation model and a few input parameters. We further propose an approach for the selection of optimal parameters controlling the terrain subdivision for landslide susceptibility modeling. We tested the software and the optimization approach in central Italy, where terrain, landslide, and geo-environmental information was available. The software was capable of capturing the variability of the landscape and partitioning the study area into slope units suited for landslide susceptibility modeling and zonation. We expect r.slopeunits to be used in different physiographical settings for the production of reliable and reproducible landslide susceptibility zonations.

Robust Likelihoods for Inflationary Gravitational Waves from Maps of Cosmic Microwave Background Polarization

Science.gov (United States)

Switzer, Eric Ryan; Watts, Duncan J.

2016-01-01

The B-mode polarization of the cosmic microwave background provides a unique window into tensor perturbations from inflationary gravitational waves. Survey effects complicate the estimation and description of the power spectrum on the largest angular scales. The pixel-space likelihood yields parameter distributions without the power spectrum as an intermediate step, but it does not have the large suite of tests available to power spectral methods. Searches for primordial B-modes must rigorously reject and rule out contamination. Many forms of contamination vary or are uncorrelated across epochs, frequencies, surveys, or other data treatment subsets. The cross power and the power spectrum of the difference of subset maps provide approaches to reject and isolate excess variance. We develop an analogous joint pixel-space likelihood. Contamination not modeled in the likelihood produces parameter-dependent bias and complicates the interpretation of the difference map. We describe a null test that consistently weights the difference map. Excess variance should either be explicitly modeled in the covariance or be removed through reprocessing the data.

A general model for likelihood computations of genetic marker data accounting for linkage, linkage disequilibrium, and mutations.

Science.gov (United States)

Kling, Daniel; Tillmar, Andreas; Egeland, Thore; Mostad, Petter

2015-09-01

Several applications necessitate an unbiased determination of relatedness, be it in linkage or association studies or in a forensic setting. An appropriate model to compute the joint probability of some genetic data for a set of persons given some hypothesis about the pedigree structure is then required. The increasing number of markers available through high-density SNP microarray typing and NGS technologies intensifies the demand, where using a large number of markers may lead to biased results due to strong dependencies between closely located loci, both within pedigrees (linkage) and in the population (allelic association or linkage disequilibrium (LD)). We present a new general model, based on a Markov chain for inheritance patterns and another Markov chain for founder allele patterns, the latter allowing us to account for LD. We also demonstrate a specific implementation for X chromosomal markers that allows for computation of likelihoods based on hypotheses of alleged relationships and genetic marker data. The algorithm can simultaneously account for linkage, LD, and mutations. We demonstrate its feasibility using simulated examples. The algorithm is implemented in the software FamLinkX, providing a user-friendly GUI for Windows systems (FamLinkX, as well as further usage instructions, is freely available at www.famlink.se ). Our software provides the necessary means to solve cases where no previous implementation exists. In addition, the software has the possibility to perform simulations in order to further study the impact of linkage and LD on computed likelihoods for an arbitrary set of markers.

Development of the Automatic Modeling System for Reaction Mechanisms Using REX+JGG

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, Takahiro; Kawai, Kohei; Nakai, Hiroyuki; Ema, Yoshinori

The identification of appropriate reaction models is very helpful for developing chemical vapor deposition (CVD) processes. In this study, we developed an automatic modeling system that analyzes experimental data on the cross- sectional shapes of films deposited on substrates with nanometer- or micrometer-sized trenches. The system then identifies a suitable reaction model to describe the film deposition. The inference engine used by the system to model the reaction mechanism was designed using real-coded genetic algorithms (RCGAs): a generation alternation model named "just generation gap" (JGG) and a real-coded crossover named "real-coded ensemble crossover" (REX). We studied the effect of REX+JGG on the system's performance, and found that the system with REX+JGG was the most accurate and reliable at model identification among the algorithms that we studied.

Posterior distributions for likelihood ratios in forensic science.

Science.gov (United States)

van den Hout, Ardo; Alberink, Ivo

2016-09-01

Evaluation of evidence in forensic science is discussed using posterior distributions for likelihood ratios. Instead of eliminating the uncertainty by integrating (Bayes factor) or by conditioning on parameter values, uncertainty in the likelihood ratio is retained by parameter uncertainty derived from posterior distributions. A posterior distribution for a likelihood ratio can be summarised by the median and credible intervals. Using the posterior mean of the distribution is not recommended. An analysis of forensic data for body height estimation is undertaken. The posterior likelihood approach has been criticised both theoretically and with respect to applicability. This paper addresses the latter and illustrates an interesting application area. Copyright © 2016 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automatic three-dimensional model for protontherapy of the eye: Preliminary results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bondiau, Pierre-Yves; Malandain, Gregoire; Chauvel, Pierre; Peyrade, Frederique; Courdi, Adel; Iborra, Nicole; Caujolle, Jean-Pierre; Gastaud, Pierre

2003-01-01

Recently, radiotherapy possibilities have been dramatically increased by software and hardware developments. Improvements in medical imaging devices have increased the importance of three-dimensional (3D) images as the complete examination of these data by a physician is not possible. Computer techniques are needed to present only the pertinent information for clinical applications. We describe a technique for an automatic 3D reconstruction of the eye and CT scan merging with fundus photographs (retinography). The final result is a 'virtual eye' to guide ocular tumor protontherapy. First, we make specific software to automatically detect the position of the eyeball, the optical nerve, and the lens in the CT scan. We obtain a 3D eye reconstruction using this automatic method. Second, we describe the retinography and demonstrate the projection of this modality. Then we combine retinography with a reconstructed eye, using a CT scan to get a virtual eye. The result is a computer 3D scene rendering a virtual eye into a skull reconstruction. The virtual eye can be useful for the simulation, the planning, and the control of ocular tumor protontherapy. It can be adapted to treatment planning to automatically detect eye and organs at risk position. It should be highlighted that all the image processing is fully automatic to allow the reproduction of results, this is a useful property to conduct a consistent clinical validation. The automatic localization of the organ at risk in a CT scan or an MRI by automatic software could be of great interest for radiotherapy in the future for comparison of one patient at different times, the comparison of different treatments centers, the possibility of pooling results of different treatments centers, the automatic generation of doses-volumes histograms, the comparison between different treatment planning for the same patient and the comparison between different patients at the same time. It will also be less time consuming

Electricity prices forecasting by automatic dynamic harmonic regression models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pedregal, Diego J.; Trapero, Juan R.

2007-01-01

The changes experienced by electricity markets in recent years have created the necessity for more accurate forecast tools of electricity prices, both for producers and consumers. Many methodologies have been applied to this aim, but in the view of the authors, state space models are not yet fully exploited. The present paper proposes a univariate dynamic harmonic regression model set up in a state space framework for forecasting prices in these markets. The advantages of the approach are threefold. Firstly, a fast automatic identification and estimation procedure is proposed based on the frequency domain. Secondly, the recursive algorithms applied offer adaptive predictions that compare favourably with respect to other techniques. Finally, since the method is based on unobserved components models, explicit information about trend, seasonal and irregular behaviours of the series can be extracted. This information is of great value to the electricity companies' managers in order to improve their strategies, i.e. it provides management innovations. The good forecast performance and the rapid adaptability of the model to changes in the data are illustrated with actual prices taken from the PJM interconnection in the US and for the Spanish market for the year 2002. (author)

Maximum-Likelihood Detection Of Noncoherent CPM

Science.gov (United States)

Divsalar, Dariush; Simon, Marvin K.

1993-01-01

Simplified detectors proposed for use in maximum-likelihood-sequence detection of symbols in alphabet of size M transmitted by uncoded, full-response continuous phase modulation over radio channel with additive white Gaussian noise. Structures of receivers derived from particular interpretation of maximum-likelihood metrics. Receivers include front ends, structures of which depends only on M, analogous to those in receivers of coherent CPM. Parts of receivers following front ends have structures, complexity of which would depend on N.

TU-H-CAMPUS-JeP1-02: Fully Automatic Verification of Automatically Contoured Normal Tissues in the Head and Neck

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McCarroll, R [UT MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX (United States); UT Health Science Center, Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Houston, TX (United States); Beadle, B; Yang, J; Zhang, L; Kisling, K; Balter, P; Stingo, F; Nelson, C; Followill, D; Court, L [UT MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX (United States); Mejia, M [University of Santo Tomas Hospital, Manila, Metro Manila (Philippines)

2016-06-15

Purpose: To investigate and validate the use of an independent deformable-based contouring algorithm for automatic verification of auto-contoured structures in the head and neck towards fully automated treatment planning. Methods: Two independent automatic contouring algorithms [(1) Eclipse’s Smart Segmentation followed by pixel-wise majority voting, (2) an in-house multi-atlas based method] were used to create contours of 6 normal structures of 10 head-and-neck patients. After rating by a radiation oncologist, the higher performing algorithm was selected as the primary contouring method, the other used for automatic verification of the primary. To determine the ability of the verification algorithm to detect incorrect contours, contours from the primary method were shifted from 0.5 to 2cm. Using a logit model the structure-specific minimum detectable shift was identified. The models were then applied to a set of twenty different patients and the sensitivity and specificity of the models verified. Results: Per physician rating, the multi-atlas method (4.8/5 point scale, with 3 rated as generally acceptable for planning purposes) was selected as primary and the Eclipse-based method (3.5/5) for verification. Mean distance to agreement and true positive rate were selected as covariates in an optimized logit model. These models, when applied to a group of twenty different patients, indicated that shifts could be detected at 0.5cm (brain), 0.75cm (mandible, cord), 1cm (brainstem, cochlea), or 1.25cm (parotid), with sensitivity and specificity greater than 0.95. If sensitivity and specificity constraints are reduced to 0.9, detectable shifts of mandible and brainstem were reduced by 0.25cm. These shifts represent additional safety margins which might be considered if auto-contours are used for automatic treatment planning without physician review. Conclusion: Automatically contoured structures can be automatically verified. This fully automated process could be used to

Evaluation of manual and automatic manually triggered ventilation performance and ergonomics using a simulation model.

Science.gov (United States)

Marjanovic, Nicolas; Le Floch, Soizig; Jaffrelot, Morgan; L'Her, Erwan

2014-05-01

In the absence of endotracheal intubation, the manual bag-valve-mask (BVM) is the most frequently used ventilation technique during resuscitation. The efficiency of other devices has been poorly studied. The bench-test study described here was designed to evaluate the effectiveness of an automatic, manually triggered system, and to compare it with manual BVM ventilation. A respiratory system bench model was assembled using a lung simulator connected to a manikin to simulate a patient with unprotected airways. Fifty health-care providers from different professional groups (emergency physicians, residents, advanced paramedics, nurses, and paramedics; n = 10 per group) evaluated manual BVM ventilation, and compared it with an automatic manually triggered device (EasyCPR). Three pathological situations were simulated (restrictive, obstructive, normal). Standard ventilation parameters were recorded; the ergonomics of the system were assessed by the health-care professionals using a standard numerical scale once the recordings were completed. The tidal volume fell within the standard range (400-600 mL) for 25.6% of breaths (0.6-45 breaths) using manual BVM ventilation, and for 28.6% of breaths (0.3-80 breaths) using the automatic manually triggered device (EasyCPR) (P < .0002). Peak inspiratory airway pressure was lower using the automatic manually triggered device (EasyCPR) (10.6 ± 5 vs 15.9 ± 10 cm H2O, P < .001). The ventilation rate fell consistently within the guidelines, in the case of the automatic manually triggered device (EasyCPR) only (10.3 ± 2 vs 17.6 ± 6, P < .001). Significant pulmonary overdistention was observed when using the manual BVM device during the normal and obstructive sequences. The nurses and paramedics considered the ergonomics of the automatic manually triggered device (EasyCPR) to be better than those of the manual device. The use of an automatic manually triggered device may improve ventilation efficiency and decrease the risk of

An automatic rat brain extraction method based on a deformable surface model.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jiehua; Liu, Xiaofeng; Zhuo, Jiachen; Gullapalli, Rao P; Zara, Jason M

2013-08-15

The extraction of the brain from the skull in medical images is a necessary first step before image registration or segmentation. While pre-clinical MR imaging studies on small animals, such as rats, are increasing, fully automatic imaging processing techniques specific to small animal studies remain lacking. In this paper, we present an automatic rat brain extraction method, the Rat Brain Deformable model method (RBD), which adapts the popular human brain extraction tool (BET) through the incorporation of information on the brain geometry and MR image characteristics of the rat brain. The robustness of the method was demonstrated on T2-weighted MR images of 64 rats and compared with other brain extraction methods (BET, PCNN, PCNN-3D). The results demonstrate that RBD reliably extracts the rat brain with high accuracy (>92% volume overlap) and is robust against signal inhomogeneity in the images. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Bootstrap Inference in Fractional Time Series Models with Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cavaliere, Giuseppe; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Taylor, Robert

We consider the problem of conducting estimation and inference on the parameters of univariate heteroskedastic fractionally integrated time series models. We first extend existing results in the literature, developed for conditional sum-of squares estimators in the context of parametric fractional...... time series models driven by conditionally homoskedastic shocks, to allow for conditional and unconditional heteroskedasticity both of a quite general and unknown form. Global consistency and asymptotic normality are shown to still obtain; however, the covariance matrix of the limiting distribution...... of the estimator now depends on nuisance parameters derived both from the weak dependence and heteroskedasticity present in the shocks. We then investigate classical methods of inference based on the Wald, likelihood ratio and Lagrange multiplier tests for linear hypotheses on either or both of the long and short...

Automatic generation of groundwater model hydrostratigraphy from AEM resistivity and boreholes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Marker, Pernille Aabye; Foged, N.; Christiansen, A. V.

2014-01-01

distribution govern groundwater flow. The coupling between hydrological and geophysical parameters is managed using a translator function with spatially variable parameters followed by a 3D zonation. The translator function translates geophysical resistivities into clay fractions and is calibrated...... with observed lithological data. Principal components are computed for the translated clay fractions and geophysical resistivities. Zonation is carried out by k-means clustering on the principal components. The hydraulic parameters of the zones are determined in a hydrological model calibration using head...... and discharge observations. The method was applied to field data collected at a Danish field site. Our results show that a competitive hydrological model can be constructed from the AEM dataset using the automatic procedure outlined above....

The skewed weak lensing likelihood: why biases arise, despite data and theory being sound.

Science.gov (United States)

Sellentin, Elena; Heymans, Catherine; Harnois-Déraps, Joachim

2018-04-01

We derive the essentials of the skewed weak lensing likelihood via a simple Hierarchical Forward Model. Our likelihood passes four objective and cosmology-independent tests which a standard Gaussian likelihood fails. We demonstrate that sound weak lensing data are naturally biased low, since they are drawn from a skewed distribution. This occurs already in the framework of ΛCDM. Mathematically, the biases arise because noisy two-point functions follow skewed distributions. This form of bias is already known from CMB analyses, where the low multipoles have asymmetric error bars. Weak lensing is more strongly affected by this asymmetry as galaxies form a discrete set of shear tracer particles, in contrast to a smooth shear field. We demonstrate that the biases can be up to 30% of the standard deviation per data point, dependent on the properties of the weak lensing survey and the employed filter function. Our likelihood provides a versatile framework with which to address this bias in future weak lensing analyses.

Automatic generation of medium-detailed 3D models of buildings based on CAD data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dominguez-Martin, B.; Van Oosterom, P.; Feito-Higueruela, F.R.; Garcia-Fernandez, A.L.; Ogayar-Anguita, C.J.

2015-01-01

We present the preliminary results of a work in progress which aims to obtain a software system able to automatically generate a set of diverse 3D building models with a medium level of detail, that is, more detailed that a mere parallelepiped, but not as detailed as a complete geometric

Attractiveness of the underling: an automatic power --> sex association and its consequences for sexual harassment and aggression.

Science.gov (United States)

Bargh, J A; Raymond, P; Pryor, J B; Strack, F

1995-05-01

One characteristic of men who sexually harass is that they are not aware that their actions are inappropriate or a misuse of their power (L. F. Fitzgerald, 1993a). We investigated the existence and automaticity of a mental association between the concepts of power and sex, and its consequences for sexual harassment tendencies. Using a subliminal priming paradigm, Experiment 1 demonstrated an automatic link between power and sex, and only for men high in the likelihood to sexually harass or aggress. In Experiment 2, male participants were unobtrusively primed with either power-related or neutral stimuli. For men likely to sexually aggress, but not other participants, attraction ratings of a female confederate were significantly higher in the power priming than the neutral priming condition.

(Re)evaluating the Implications of the Autoregressive Latent Trajectory Model Through Likelihood Ratio Tests of Its Initial Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ou, Lu; Chow, Sy-Miin; Ji, Linying; Molenaar, Peter C M

2017-01-01

The autoregressive latent trajectory (ALT) model synthesizes the autoregressive model and the latent growth curve model. The ALT model is flexible enough to produce a variety of discrepant model-implied change trajectories. While some researchers consider this a virtue, others have cautioned that this may confound interpretations of the model's parameters. In this article, we show that some-but not all-of these interpretational difficulties may be clarified mathematically and tested explicitly via likelihood ratio tests (LRTs) imposed on the initial conditions of the model. We show analytically the nested relations among three variants of the ALT model and the constraints needed to establish equivalences. A Monte Carlo simulation study indicated that LRTs, particularly when used in combination with information criterion measures, can allow researchers to test targeted hypotheses about the functional forms of the change process under study. We further demonstrate when and how such tests may justifiably be used to facilitate our understanding of the underlying process of change using a subsample (N = 3,995) of longitudinal family income data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.

Unbinned likelihood analysis of EGRET observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Digel, Seth W.

2000-01-01

We present a newly-developed likelihood analysis method for EGRET data that defines the likelihood function without binning the photon data or averaging the instrumental response functions. The standard likelihood analysis applied to EGRET data requires the photons to be binned spatially and in energy, and the point-spread functions to be averaged over energy and inclination angle. The full-width half maximum of the point-spread function increases by about 40% from on-axis to 30 degree sign inclination, and depending on the binning in energy can vary by more than that in a single energy bin. The new unbinned method avoids the loss of information that binning and averaging cause and can properly analyze regions where EGRET viewing periods overlap and photons with different inclination angles would otherwise be combined in the same bin. In the poster, we describe the unbinned analysis method and compare its sensitivity with binned analysis for detecting point sources in EGRET data

Thai Automatic Speech Recognition

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Suebvisai, Sinaporn; Charoenpornsawat, Paisarn; Black, Alan; Woszczyna, Monika; Schultz, Tanja

2005-01-01

.... We focus on the discussion of the rapid deployment of ASR for Thai under limited time and data resources, including rapid data collection issues, acoustic model bootstrap, and automatic generation of pronunciations...

Modelling Diverse Soil Attributes with Visible to Longwave Infrared Spectroscopy Using PLSR Employed by an Automatic Modelling Engine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Veronika Kopačková

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The study tested a data mining engine (PARACUDA® to predict various soil attributes (BC, CEC, BS, pH, Corg, Pb, Hg, As, Zn and Cu using reflectance data acquired for both optical and thermal infrared regions. The engine was designed to utilize large data in parallel and automatic processing to build and process hundreds of diverse models in a unified manner while avoiding bias and deviations caused by the operator(s. The system is able to systematically assess the effect of diverse preprocessing techniques; additionally, it analyses other parameters, such as different spectral resolutions and spectral coverages that affect soil properties. Accordingly, the system was used to extract models across both optical and thermal infrared spectral regions, which holds significant chromophores. In total, 2880 models were evaluated where each model was generated with a different preprocessing scheme of the input spectral data. The models were assessed using statistical parameters such as coefficient of determination (R2, square error of prediction (SEP, relative percentage difference (RPD and by physical explanation (spectral assignments. It was found that the smoothing procedure is the most beneficial preprocessing stage, especially when combined with spectral derivation (1st or 2nd derivatives. Automatically and without the need of an operator, the data mining engine enabled the best prediction models to be found from all the combinations tested. Furthermore, the data mining approach used in this study and its processing scheme proved to be efficient tools for getting a better understanding of the geochemical properties of the samples studied (e.g., mineral associations.

Likelihood-based inference for cointegration with nonlinear error-correction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Dennis; Rahbek, Anders Christian

2010-01-01

We consider a class of nonlinear vector error correction models where the transfer function (or loadings) of the stationary relationships is nonlinear. This includes in particular the smooth transition models. A general representation theorem is given which establishes the dynamic properties...... and a linear trend in general. Gaussian likelihood-based estimators are considered for the long-run cointegration parameters, and the short-run parameters. Asymptotic theory is provided for these and it is discussed to what extend asymptotic normality and mixed normality can be found. A simulation study...

Automatic generation of a subject-specific model for accurate markerless motion capture and biomechanical applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Corazza, Stefano; Gambaretto, Emiliano; Mündermann, Lars; Andriacchi, Thomas P

2010-04-01

A novel approach for the automatic generation of a subject-specific model consisting of morphological and joint location information is described. The aim is to address the need for efficient and accurate model generation for markerless motion capture (MMC) and biomechanical studies. The algorithm applied and expanded on previous work on human shapes space by embedding location information for ten joint centers in a subject-specific free-form surface. The optimal locations of joint centers in the 3-D mesh were learned through linear regression over a set of nine subjects whose joint centers were known. The model was shown to be sufficiently accurate for both kinematic (joint centers) and morphological (shape of the body) information to allow accurate tracking with MMC systems. The automatic model generation algorithm was applied to 3-D meshes of different quality and resolution such as laser scans and visual hulls. The complete method was tested using nine subjects of different gender, body mass index (BMI), age, and ethnicity. Experimental training error and cross-validation errors were 19 and 25 mm, respectively, on average over the joints of the ten subjects analyzed in the study.

Cases in which ancestral maximum likelihood will be confusingly misleading.

Science.gov (United States)

Handelman, Tomer; Chor, Benny

2017-05-07

Ancestral maximum likelihood (AML) is a phylogenetic tree reconstruction criteria that "lies between" maximum parsimony (MP) and maximum likelihood (ML). ML has long been known to be statistically consistent. On the other hand, Felsenstein (1978) showed that MP is statistically inconsistent, and even positively misleading: There are cases where the parsimony criteria, applied to data generated according to one tree topology, will be optimized on a different tree topology. The question of weather AML is statistically consistent or not has been open for a long time. Mossel et al. (2009) have shown that AML can "shrink" short tree edges, resulting in a star tree with no internal resolution, which yields a better AML score than the original (resolved) model. This result implies that AML is statistically inconsistent, but not that it is positively misleading, because the star tree is compatible with any other topology. We show that AML is confusingly misleading: For some simple, four taxa (resolved) tree, the ancestral likelihood optimization criteria is maximized on an incorrect (resolved) tree topology, as well as on a star tree (both with specific edge lengths), while the tree with the original, correct topology, has strictly lower ancestral likelihood. Interestingly, the two short edges in the incorrect, resolved tree topology are of length zero, and are not adjacent, so this resolved tree is in fact a simple path. While for MP, the underlying phenomenon can be described as long edge attraction, it turns out that here we have long edge repulsion. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

COSMIC MICROWAVE BACKGROUND LIKELIHOOD APPROXIMATION BY A GAUSSIANIZED BLACKWELL-RAO ESTIMATOR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rudjord, Oe.; Groeneboom, N. E.; Eriksen, H. K.; Huey, Greg; Gorski, K. M.; Jewell, J. B.

2009-01-01

We introduce a new cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature likelihood approximation called the Gaussianized Blackwell-Rao estimator. This estimator is derived by transforming the observed marginal power spectrum distributions obtained by the CMB Gibbs sampler into standard univariate Gaussians, and then approximating their joint transformed distribution by a multivariate Gaussian. The method is exact for full-sky coverage and uniform noise and an excellent approximation for sky cuts and scanning patterns relevant for modern satellite experiments such as the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) and Planck. The result is a stable, accurate, and computationally very efficient CMB temperature likelihood representation that allows the user to exploit the unique error propagation capabilities of the Gibbs sampler to high ls. A single evaluation of this estimator between l = 2 and 200 takes ∼0.2 CPU milliseconds, while for comparison, a singe pixel space likelihood evaluation between l = 2 and 30 for a map with ∼2500 pixels requires ∼20 s. We apply this tool to the five-year WMAP temperature data, and re-estimate the angular temperature power spectrum, C l , and likelihood, L(C l ), for l ≤ 200, and derive new cosmological parameters for the standard six-parameter ΛCDM model. Our spectrum is in excellent agreement with the official WMAP spectrum, but we find slight differences in the derived cosmological parameters. Most importantly, the spectral index of scalar perturbations is n s = 0.973 ± 0.014, 1.9σ away from unity and 0.6σ higher than the official WMAP result, n s = 0.965 ± 0.014. This suggests that an exact likelihood treatment is required to higher ls than previously believed, reinforcing and extending our conclusions from the three-year WMAP analysis. In that case, we found that the suboptimal likelihood approximation adopted between l = 12 and 30 by the WMAP team biased n s low by 0.4σ, while here we find that the same approximation

Lightning Protection Performance Assessment of Transmission Line Based on ATP model Automatic Generation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luo Hanwu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a novel method to solve the initial lightning breakdown current by combing ATP and MATLAB simulation software effectively, with the aims to evaluate the lightning protection performance of transmission line. Firstly, the executable ATP simulation model is generated automatically according to the required information such as power source parameters, tower parameters, overhead line parameters, grounding resistance and lightning current parameters, etc. through an interface program coded by MATLAB. Then, the data are extracted from the generated LIS files which can be obtained by executing the ATP simulation model, the occurrence of transmission lie breakdown can be determined by the relative data in LIS file. The lightning current amplitude should be reduced when the breakdown occurs, and vice the verse. Thus the initial lightning breakdown current of a transmission line with given parameters can be determined accurately by continuously changing the lightning current amplitude, which is realized by a loop computing algorithm that is coded by MATLAB software. The method proposed in this paper can generate the ATP simulation program automatically, and facilitates the lightning protection performance assessment of transmission line.

Evidence-Based Occupational Hearing Screening I: Modeling the Effects of Real-World Noise Environments on the Likelihood of Effective Speech Communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Soli, Sigfrid D; Giguère, Christian; Laroche, Chantal; Vaillancourt, Véronique; Dreschler, Wouter A; Rhebergen, Koenraad S; Harkins, Kevin; Ruckstuhl, Mark; Ramulu, Pradeep; Meyers, Lawrence S

corrections environments. The likelihood of effective speech communication at communication distances of 0.5 and 1 m was often less than 0.50 for normal vocal effort. Likelihood values often increased to 0.80 or more when raised or loud vocal effort was used. Effective speech communication at and beyond 5 m was often unlikely, regardless of vocal effort. ESII modeling of nonstationary real-world noise environments may prove an objective means of characterizing their impact on the likelihood of effective speech communication. The normative reference provided by these measures predicts the extent to which hearing impairments that increase the ESII value required for effective speech communication also decrease the likelihood of effective speech communication. These predictions may provide an objective evidence-based link between the essential hearing-critical job task requirements of public safety and law enforcement personnel and ESII-based hearing assessment of individuals who seek to perform these jobs.

PERBANDINGAN ESTIMASI KEMAMPUAN LATEN ANTARA METODE MAKSIMUM LIKELIHOOD DAN METODE BAYES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heri Retnawati

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Studi ini bertujuan untuk membandingkan ketepatan estimasi kemampuan laten (latent trait pada model logistik dengan metode maksimum likelihood (ML gabungan dan bayes. Studi ini menggunakan metode simulasi Monte Carlo, dengan model data ujian nasional matematika SMP. Variabel simulasi adalah panjang tes dan banyaknya peserta.  Data dibangkitkan dengan menggunakan SAS/IML dengan replikasi 40 kali, dan tiap data diestimasi dengan ML dan Bayes. Hasil estimasi kemudian dibandingkan dengan kemampuan yang sebenarnya, dengan menghitung mean square of error (MSE dan korelasi antara kemampuan laten yang sebenarnya dan hasil estimasi. Metode yang memiliki MSE lebih kecil dikatakan sebagai metode estimasi yang lebih baik. Hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa pada estimasi kemampuan laten dengan 15, 20, 25, dan 30 butir dengan 500 dan 1.000 peserta, hasil MSE belum stabil, namun ketika peserta menjadi 1.500 orang, diperoleh akurasi estimasi kemampuan yang hampir sama baik estimasi antara metode ML dan metode Bayes. Pada estimasi dengan 15 dan 20 butir dan peserta 500, 1.000, dan 1.500, hasil MSE belum stabil, dan ketika estimasi melibatkan 25 dan 30 butir, baik dengan peserta 500, 1.000, maupun 1.500 akan diperoleh hasil yang lebih akurat dengan metode ML. Kata kunci: estimasi kemampuan, metode maksimum likelihood, metode Bayes     THE COMPARISON OF ESTIMATION OF LATENT TRAITS USING MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD AND BAYES METHODS Abstract This study aimed to compare the accuracy of the estimation of latent ability (latent trait in the logistic model using maximum likelihood (ML and Bayes methods. This study uses a quantitative approach that is the Monte Carlo simulation method using students responses to national examination as data model, and variables are the length of the test and the number of participants. The data were generated using SAS/IML with replication 40 times, and each datum is then estimated by ML and Bayes. The estimation results are then compared with the

Uncertainty in a monthly water balance model using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Rivera, Diego; Rivas, Yessica; Godoy, Alex

2015-02-01

Hydrological models are simplified representations of natural processes and subject to errors. Uncertainty bounds are a commonly used way to assess the impact of an input or model architecture uncertainty in model outputs. Different sets of parameters could have equally robust goodness-of-fit indicators, which is known as Equifinality. We assessed the outputs from a lumped conceptual hydrological model to an agricultural watershed in central Chile under strong interannual variability (coefficient of variability of 25%) by using the Equifinality concept and uncertainty bounds. The simulation period ran from January 1999 to December 2006. Equifinality and uncertainty bounds from GLUE methodology (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) were used to identify parameter sets as potential representations of the system. The aim of this paper is to exploit the use of uncertainty bounds to differentiate behavioural parameter sets in a simple hydrological model. Then, we analyze the presence of equifinality in order to improve the identification of relevant hydrological processes. The water balance model for Chillan River exhibits, at a first stage, equifinality. However, it was possible to narrow the range for the parameters and eventually identify a set of parameters representing the behaviour of the watershed (a behavioural model) in agreement with observational and soft data (calculation of areal precipitation over the watershed using an isohyetal map). The mean width of the uncertainty bound around the predicted runoff for the simulation period decreased from 50 to 20 m3s-1 after fixing the parameter controlling the areal precipitation over the watershed. This decrement is equivalent to decreasing the ratio between simulated and observed discharge from 5.2 to 2.5. Despite the criticisms against the GLUE methodology, such as the lack of statistical formality, it is identified as a useful tool assisting the modeller with the identification of critical parameters.

Empirical Correction to the Likelihood Ratio Statistic for Structural Equation Modeling with Many Variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Ke-Hai; Tian, Yubin; Yanagihara, Hirokazu

2015-06-01

Survey data typically contain many variables. Structural equation modeling (SEM) is commonly used in analyzing such data. The most widely used statistic for evaluating the adequacy of a SEM model is T ML, a slight modification to the likelihood ratio statistic. Under normality assumption, T ML approximately follows a chi-square distribution when the number of observations (N) is large and the number of items or variables (p) is small. However, in practice, p can be rather large while N is always limited due to not having enough participants. Even with a relatively large N, empirical results show that T ML rejects the correct model too often when p is not too small. Various corrections to T ML have been proposed, but they are mostly heuristic. Following the principle of the Bartlett correction, this paper proposes an empirical approach to correct T ML so that the mean of the resulting statistic approximately equals the degrees of freedom of the nominal chi-square distribution. Results show that empirically corrected statistics follow the nominal chi-square distribution much more closely than previously proposed corrections to T ML, and they control type I errors reasonably well whenever N ≥ max(50,2p). The formulations of the empirically corrected statistics are further used to predict type I errors of T ML as reported in the literature, and they perform well.

Towards automatic exchange of information

OpenAIRE

Oberson, Xavier

2015-01-01

This article describes the various steps that led towards automatic exchange of information as the global standard and the issues that remain to be solved. First, the various competing models of exchange information, such as Double Tax Treaty (DTT), TIEA's, FATCA or UE Directives are described with a view to show how they interact between themselves. Second, the so-called Rubik Strategy is summarized and compared with an automatic exchange of information (AEOI). The third part then describes ...

Model design and simulation of automatic sorting machine using proximity sensor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bankole I. Oladapo

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The automatic sorting system has been reported to be complex and a global problem. This is because of the inability of sorting machines to incorporate flexibility in their design concept. This research therefore designed and developed an automated sorting object of a conveyor belt. The developed automated sorting machine is able to incorporate flexibility and separate species of non-ferrous metal objects and at the same time move objects automatically to the basket as defined by the regulation of the Programmable Logic Controllers (PLC with a capacitive proximity sensor to detect a value range of objects. The result obtained shows that plastic, wood, and steel were sorted into their respective and correct position with an average, sorting, time of 9.903 s, 14.072 s and 18.648 s respectively. The proposed developed model of this research could be adopted at any institution or industries, whose practices are based on mechatronics engineering systems. This is to guide the industrial sector in sorting of object and teaching aid to institutions and hence produce the list of classified materials according to the enabled sorting program commands.

GEM System: automatic prototyping of cell-wide metabolic pathway models from genomes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nakayama Yoichi

2006-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Successful realization of a "systems biology" approach to analyzing cells is a grand challenge for our understanding of life. However, current modeling approaches to cell simulation are labor-intensive, manual affairs, and therefore constitute a major bottleneck in the evolution of computational cell biology. Results We developed the Genome-based Modeling (GEM System for the purpose of automatically prototyping simulation models of cell-wide metabolic pathways from genome sequences and other public biological information. Models generated by the GEM System include an entire Escherichia coli metabolism model comprising 968 reactions of 1195 metabolites, achieving 100% coverage when compared with the KEGG database, 92.38% with the EcoCyc database, and 95.06% with iJR904 genome-scale model. Conclusion The GEM System prototypes qualitative models to reduce the labor-intensive tasks required for systems biology research. Models of over 90 bacterial genomes are available at our web site.

Automatic localization of IASLC-defined mediastinal lymph node stations on CT images using fuzzy models

Science.gov (United States)

Matsumoto, Monica M. S.; Beig, Niha G.; Udupa, Jayaram K.; Archer, Steven; Torigian, Drew A.

2014-03-01

Lung cancer is associated with the highest cancer mortality rates among men and women in the United States. The accurate and precise identification of the lymph node stations on computed tomography (CT) images is important for staging disease and potentially for prognosticating outcome in patients with lung cancer, as well as for pretreatment planning and response assessment purposes. To facilitate a standard means of referring to lymph nodes, the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer (IASLC) has recently proposed a definition of the different lymph node stations and zones in the thorax. However, nodal station identification is typically performed manually by visual assessment in clinical radiology. This approach leaves room for error due to the subjective and potentially ambiguous nature of visual interpretation, and is labor intensive. We present a method of automatically recognizing the mediastinal IASLC-defined lymph node stations by modifying a hierarchical fuzzy modeling approach previously developed for body-wide automatic anatomy recognition (AAR) in medical imagery. Our AAR-lymph node (AAR-LN) system follows the AAR methodology and consists of two steps. In the first step, the various lymph node stations are manually delineated on a set of CT images following the IASLC definitions. These delineations are then used to build a fuzzy hierarchical model of the nodal stations which are considered as 3D objects. In the second step, the stations are automatically located on any given CT image of the thorax by using the hierarchical fuzzy model and object recognition algorithms. Based on 23 data sets used for model building, 22 independent data sets for testing, and 10 lymph node stations, a mean localization accuracy of within 1-6 voxels has been achieved by the AAR-LN system.

Terrain Classification on Venus from Maximum-Likelihood Inversion of Parameterized Models of Topography, Gravity, and their Relation

Science.gov (United States)

Eggers, G. L.; Lewis, K. W.; Simons, F. J.; Olhede, S.

2013-12-01

Venus does not possess a plate-tectonic system like that observed on Earth, and many surface features--such as tesserae and coronae--lack terrestrial equivalents. To understand Venus' tectonics is to understand its lithosphere, requiring a study of topography and gravity, and how they relate. Past studies of topography dealt with mapping and classification of visually observed features, and studies of gravity dealt with inverting the relation between topography and gravity anomalies to recover surface density and elastic thickness in either the space (correlation) or the spectral (admittance, coherence) domain. In the former case, geological features could be delineated but not classified quantitatively. In the latter case, rectangular or circular data windows were used, lacking geological definition. While the estimates of lithospheric strength on this basis were quantitative, they lacked robust error estimates. Here, we remapped the surface into 77 regions visually and qualitatively defined from a combination of Magellan topography, gravity, and radar images. We parameterize the spectral covariance of the observed topography, treating it as a Gaussian process assumed to be stationary over the mapped regions, using a three-parameter isotropic Matern model, and perform maximum-likelihood based inversions for the parameters. We discuss the parameter distribution across the Venusian surface and across terrain types such as coronoae, dorsae, tesserae, and their relation with mean elevation and latitudinal position. We find that the three-parameter model, while mathematically established and applicable to Venus topography, is overparameterized, and thus reduce the results to a two-parameter description of the peak spectral variance and the range-to-half-peak variance (in function of the wavenumber). With the reduction the clustering of geological region types in two-parameter space becomes promising. Finally, we perform inversions for the JOINT spectral variance of

Automatic Craniomaxillofacial Landmark Digitization via Segmentation-guided Partially-joint Regression Forest Model and Multi-scale Statistical Features

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jun; Gao, Yaozong; Wang, Li; Tang, Zhen; Xia, James J.; Shen, Dinggang

2016-01-01

Objective The goal of this paper is to automatically digitize craniomaxillofacial (CMF) landmarks efficiently and accurately from cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) images, by addressing the challenge caused by large morphological variations across patients and image artifacts of CBCT images. Methods We propose a Segmentation-guided Partially-joint Regression Forest (S-PRF) model to automatically digitize CMF landmarks. In this model, a regression voting strategy is first adopted to localize each landmark by aggregating evidences from context locations, thus potentially relieving the problem caused by image artifacts near the landmark. Second, CBCT image segmentation is utilized to remove uninformative voxels caused by morphological variations across patients. Third, a partially-joint model is further proposed to separately localize landmarks based on the coherence of landmark positions to improve the digitization reliability. In addition, we propose a fast vector quantization (VQ) method to extract high-level multi-scale statistical features to describe a voxel's appearance, which has low dimensionality, high efficiency, and is also invariant to the local inhomogeneity caused by artifacts. Results Mean digitization errors for 15 landmarks, in comparison to the ground truth, are all less than 2mm. Conclusion Our model has addressed challenges of both inter-patient morphological variations and imaging artifacts. Experiments on a CBCT dataset show that our approach achieves clinically acceptable accuracy for landmark digitalization. Significance Our automatic landmark digitization method can be used clinically to reduce the labor cost and also improve digitalization consistency. PMID:26625402

Automatic lung segmentation in functional SPECT images using active shape models trained on reference lung shapes from CT.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheimariotis, Grigorios-Aris; Al-Mashat, Mariam; Haris, Kostas; Aletras, Anthony H; Jögi, Jonas; Bajc, Marika; Maglaveras, Nicolaos; Heiberg, Einar

2018-02-01

Image segmentation is an essential step in quantifying the extent of reduced or absent lung function. The aim of this study is to develop and validate a new tool for automatic segmentation of lungs in ventilation and perfusion SPECT images and compare automatic and manual SPECT lung segmentations with reference computed tomography (CT) volumes. A total of 77 subjects (69 patients with obstructive lung disease, and 8 subjects without apparent perfusion of ventilation loss) performed low-dose CT followed by ventilation/perfusion (V/P) SPECT examination in a hybrid gamma camera system. In the training phase, lung shapes from the 57 anatomical low-dose CT images were used to construct two active shape models (right lung and left lung) which were then used for image segmentation. The algorithm was validated in 20 patients, comparing its results to reference delineation of corresponding CT images, and by comparing automatic segmentation to manual delineations in SPECT images. The Dice coefficient between automatic SPECT delineations and manual SPECT delineations were 0.83 ± 0.04% for the right and 0.82 ± 0.05% for the left lung. There was statistically significant difference between reference volumes from CT and automatic delineations for the right (R = 0.53, p = 0.02) and left lung (R = 0.69, p automatic quantification of wide range of measurements.

Maximum-likelihood estimation of the hyperbolic parameters from grouped observations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jens Ledet

1988-01-01

a least-squares problem. The second procedure Hypesti first approaches the maximum-likelihood estimate by iterating in the profile-log likelihood function for the scale parameter. Close to the maximum of the likelihood function, the estimation is brought to an end by iteration, using all four parameters...

Tests and Confidence Intervals for an Extended Variance Component Using the Modified Likelihood Ratio Statistic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Ole Fredslund; Frydenberg, Morten; Jensen, Jens Ledet

2005-01-01

The large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic is studied for testing a variance component equal to a specified value. Formulas are presented in the general balanced case, whereas in the unbalanced case only the one-way random effects model is studied. Simulation studies are presented......, showing that the normal approximation to the large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic gives confidence intervals for variance components with coverage probabilities very close to the nominal confidence coefficient....

Formula I(1 and I(2: Race Tracks for Likelihood Maximization Algorithms of I(1 and I(2 Cointegrated VAR Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jurgen A. Doornik

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This paper provides some test cases, called circuits, for the evaluation of Gaussian likelihood maximization algorithms of the cointegrated vector autoregressive model. Both I(1 and I(2 models are considered. The performance of algorithms is compared first in terms of effectiveness, defined as the ability to find the overall maximum. The next step is to compare their efficiency and reliability across experiments. The aim of the paper is to commence a collective learning project by the profession on the actual properties of algorithms for cointegrated vector autoregressive model estimation, in order to improve their quality and, as a consequence, also the reliability of empirical research.

Failed refutations: further comments on parsimony and likelihood methods and their relationship to Popper's degree of corroboration.

Science.gov (United States)

de Queiroz, Kevin; Poe, Steven

2003-06-01

Kluge's (2001, Syst. Biol. 50:322-330) continued arguments that phylogenetic methods based on the statistical principle of likelihood are incompatible with the philosophy of science described by Karl Popper are based on false premises related to Kluge's misrepresentations of Popper's philosophy. Contrary to Kluge's conjectures, likelihood methods are not inherently verificationist; they do not treat every instance of a hypothesis as confirmation of that hypothesis. The historical nature of phylogeny does not preclude phylogenetic hypotheses from being evaluated using the probability of evidence. The low absolute probabilities of hypotheses are irrelevant to the correct interpretation of Popper's concept termed degree of corroboration, which is defined entirely in terms of relative probabilities. Popper did not advocate minimizing background knowledge; in any case, the background knowledge of both parsimony and likelihood methods consists of the general assumption of descent with modification and additional assumptions that are deterministic, concerning which tree is considered most highly corroborated. Although parsimony methods do not assume (in the sense of entailing) that homoplasy is rare, they do assume (in the sense of requiring to obtain a correct phylogenetic inference) certain things about patterns of homoplasy. Both parsimony and likelihood methods assume (in the sense of implying by the manner in which they operate) various things about evolutionary processes, although violation of those assumptions does not always cause the methods to yield incorrect phylogenetic inferences. Test severity is increased by sampling additional relevant characters rather than by character reanalysis, although either interpretation is compatible with the use of phylogenetic likelihood methods. Neither parsimony nor likelihood methods assess test severity (critical evidence) when used to identify a most highly corroborated tree(s) based on a single method or model and a

Piloted Simulation Evaluation of a Model-Predictive Automatic Recovery System to Prevent Vehicle Loss of Control on Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Litt, Jonathan S.; Liu, Yuan; Sowers, Thomas S.; Owen, A. Karl; Guo, Ten-Huei

2014-01-01

This paper describes a model-predictive automatic recovery system for aircraft on the verge of a loss-of-control situation. The system determines when it must intervene to prevent an imminent accident, resulting from a poor approach. It estimates the altitude loss that would result from a go-around maneuver at the current flight condition. If the loss is projected to violate a minimum altitude threshold, the maneuver is automatically triggered. The system deactivates to allow landing once several criteria are met. Piloted flight simulator evaluation showed the system to provide effective envelope protection during extremely unsafe landing attempts. The results demonstrate how flight and propulsion control can be integrated to recover control of the vehicle automatically and prevent a potential catastrophe.

Algorithms of maximum likelihood data clustering with applications

Science.gov (United States)

Giada, Lorenzo; Marsili, Matteo

2002-12-01

We address the problem of data clustering by introducing an unsupervised, parameter-free approach based on maximum likelihood principle. Starting from the observation that data sets belonging to the same cluster share a common information, we construct an expression for the likelihood of any possible cluster structure. The likelihood in turn depends only on the Pearson's coefficient of the data. We discuss clustering algorithms that provide a fast and reliable approximation to maximum likelihood configurations. Compared to standard clustering methods, our approach has the advantages that (i) it is parameter free, (ii) the number of clusters need not be fixed in advance and (iii) the interpretation of the results is transparent. In order to test our approach and compare it with standard clustering algorithms, we analyze two very different data sets: time series of financial market returns and gene expression data. We find that different maximization algorithms produce similar cluster structures whereas the outcome of standard algorithms has a much wider variability.

Toward a noninvasive automatic seizure control system in rats with transcranial focal stimulations via tripolar concentric ring electrodes.

Science.gov (United States)

Makeyev, Oleksandr; Liu, Xiang; Luna-Munguía, Hiram; Rogel-Salazar, Gabriela; Mucio-Ramirez, Samuel; Liu, Yuhong; Sun, Yan L; Kay, Steven M; Besio, Walter G

2012-07-01

Epilepsy affects approximately 1% of the world population. Antiepileptic drugs are ineffective in approximately 30% of patients and have side effects. We are developing a noninvasive, or minimally invasive, transcranial focal electrical stimulation system through our novel tripolar concentric ring electrodes to control seizures. In this study, we demonstrate feasibility of an automatic seizure control system in rats with pentylenetetrazole-induced seizures through single and multiple stimulations. These stimulations are automatically triggered by a real-time electrographic seizure activity detector based on a disjunctive combination of detections from a cumulative sum algorithm and a generalized likelihood ratio test. An average seizure onset detection accuracy of 76.14% was obtained for the test set (n = 13). Detection of electrographic seizure activity was accomplished in advance of the early behavioral seizure activity in 76.92% of the cases. Automatically triggered stimulation significantly (p = 0.001) reduced the electrographic seizure activity power in the once stimulated group compared to controls in 70% of the cases. To the best of our knowledge this is the first closed-loop automatic seizure control system based on noninvasive electrical brain stimulation using tripolar concentric ring electrode electrographic seizure activity as feedback.

Optimization of a Nucleic Acids united-RESidue 2-Point model (NARES-2P) with a maximum-likelihood approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He, Yi; Scheraga, Harold A.; Liwo, Adam

2015-01-01

Coarse-grained models are useful tools to investigate the structural and thermodynamic properties of biomolecules. They are obtained by merging several atoms into one interaction site. Such simplified models try to capture as much as possible information of the original biomolecular system in all-atom representation but the resulting parameters of these coarse-grained force fields still need further optimization. In this paper, a force field optimization method, which is based on maximum-likelihood fitting of the simulated to the experimental conformational ensembles and least-squares fitting of the simulated to the experimental heat-capacity curves, is applied to optimize the Nucleic Acid united-RESidue 2-point (NARES-2P) model for coarse-grained simulations of nucleic acids recently developed in our laboratory. The optimized NARES-2P force field reproduces the structural and thermodynamic data of small DNA molecules much better than the original force field

Corporate governance effect on financial distress likelihood: Evidence from Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Montserrat Manzaneque

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The paper explores some mechanisms of corporate governance (ownership and board characteristics in Spanish listed companies and their impact on the likelihood of financial distress. An empirical study was conducted between 2007 and 2012 using a matched-pairs research design with 308 observations, with half of them classified as distressed and non-distressed. Based on the previous study by Pindado, Rodrigues, and De la Torre (2008, a broader concept of bankruptcy is used to define business failure. Employing several conditional logistic models, as well as to other previous studies on bankruptcy, the results confirm that in difficult situations prior to bankruptcy, the impact of board ownership and proportion of independent directors on business failure likelihood are similar to those exerted in more extreme situations. These results go one step further, to offer a negative relationship between board size and the likelihood of financial distress. This result is interpreted as a form of creating diversity and to improve the access to the information and resources, especially in contexts where the ownership is highly concentrated and large shareholders have a great power to influence the board structure. However, the results confirm that ownership concentration does not have a significant impact on financial distress likelihood in the Spanish context. It is argued that large shareholders are passive as regards an enhanced monitoring of management and, alternatively, they do not have enough incentives to hold back the financial distress. These findings have important implications in the Spanish context, where several changes in the regulatory listing requirements have been carried out with respect to corporate governance, and where there is no empirical evidence regarding this respect.

On the application of the expected log-likelihood gain to decision making in molecular replacement.

Science.gov (United States)

Oeffner, Robert D; Afonine, Pavel V; Millán, Claudia; Sammito, Massimo; Usón, Isabel; Read, Randy J; McCoy, Airlie J

2018-04-01

Molecular-replacement phasing of macromolecular crystal structures is often fast, but if a molecular-replacement solution is not immediately obtained the crystallographer must judge whether to pursue molecular replacement or to attempt experimental phasing as the quickest path to structure solution. The introduction of the expected log-likelihood gain [eLLG; McCoy et al. (2017), Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 3637-3641] has given the crystallographer a powerful new tool to aid in making this decision. The eLLG is the log-likelihood gain on intensity [LLGI; Read & McCoy (2016), Acta Cryst. D72, 375-387] expected from a correctly placed model. It is calculated as a sum over the reflections of a function dependent on the fraction of the scattering for which the model accounts, the estimated model coordinate error and the measurement errors in the data. It is shown how the eLLG may be used to answer the question `can I solve my structure by molecular replacement?'. However, this is only the most obvious of the applications of the eLLG. It is also discussed how the eLLG may be used to determine the search order and minimal data requirements for obtaining a molecular-replacement solution using a given model, and for decision making in fragment-based molecular replacement, single-atom molecular replacement and likelihood-guided model pruning.

How to Improve the Likelihood of CDM Approval?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brandt, Urs Steiner; Svendsen, Gert Tinggaard

2014-01-01

How can the likelihood of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) approval be improved in the face of institutional shortcomings? To answer this question, we focus on the three institutional shortcomings of income sharing, risk sharing and corruption prevention concerning afforestation/reforestation (A....../R). Furthermore, three main stakeholders are identified, namely investors, governments and agents in a principal-agent model regarding monitoring and enforcement capacity. Developing countries such as West Africa have, despite huge potentials, not been integrated in A/R CDM projects yet. Remote sensing, however...

Automatic Imitation

Science.gov (United States)

Heyes, Cecilia

2011-01-01

"Automatic imitation" is a type of stimulus-response compatibility effect in which the topographical features of task-irrelevant action stimuli facilitate similar, and interfere with dissimilar, responses. This article reviews behavioral, neurophysiological, and neuroimaging research on automatic imitation, asking in what sense it is "automatic"…

An effective automatic procedure for testing parameter identifiability of HIV/AIDS models.

Science.gov (United States)

Saccomani, Maria Pia

2011-08-01

Realistic HIV models tend to be rather complex and many recent models proposed in the literature could not yet be analyzed by traditional identifiability testing techniques. In this paper, we check a priori global identifiability of some of these nonlinear HIV models taken from the recent literature, by using a differential algebra algorithm based on previous work of the author. The algorithm is implemented in a software tool, called DAISY (Differential Algebra for Identifiability of SYstems), which has been recently released (DAISY is freely available on the web site http://www.dei.unipd.it/~pia/ ). The software can be used to automatically check global identifiability of (linear and) nonlinear models described by polynomial or rational differential equations, thus providing a general and reliable tool to test global identifiability of several HIV models proposed in the literature. It can be used by researchers with a minimum of mathematical background.

A Penalized Likelihood Framework For High-Dimensional Phylogenetic Comparative Methods And An Application To New-World Monkeys Brain Evolution.

Science.gov (United States)

Julien, Clavel; Leandro, Aristide; Hélène, Morlon

2018-06-19

Working with high-dimensional phylogenetic comparative datasets is challenging because likelihood-based multivariate methods suffer from low statistical performances as the number of traits p approaches the number of species n and because some computational complications occur when p exceeds n. Alternative phylogenetic comparative methods have recently been proposed to deal with the large p small n scenario but their use and performances are limited. Here we develop a penalized likelihood framework to deal with high-dimensional comparative datasets. We propose various penalizations and methods for selecting the intensity of the penalties. We apply this general framework to the estimation of parameters (the evolutionary trait covariance matrix and parameters of the evolutionary model) and model comparison for the high-dimensional multivariate Brownian (BM), Early-burst (EB), Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) and Pagel's lambda models. We show using simulations that our penalized likelihood approach dramatically improves the estimation of evolutionary trait covariance matrices and model parameters when p approaches n, and allows for their accurate estimation when p equals or exceeds n. In addition, we show that penalized likelihood models can be efficiently compared using Generalized Information Criterion (GIC). We implement these methods, as well as the related estimation of ancestral states and the computation of phylogenetic PCA in the R package RPANDA and mvMORPH. Finally, we illustrate the utility of the new proposed framework by evaluating evolutionary models fit, analyzing integration patterns, and reconstructing evolutionary trajectories for a high-dimensional 3-D dataset of brain shape in the New World monkeys. We find a clear support for an Early-burst model suggesting an early diversification of brain morphology during the ecological radiation of the clade. Penalized likelihood offers an efficient way to deal with high-dimensional multivariate comparative data.

SU-E-T-50: Automatic Validation of Megavoltage Beams Modeled for Clinical Use in Radiation Therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Melchior, M; Salinas Aranda, F; Sciutto, S; Dodat, D; Larragueta, N

2014-01-01

Purpose: To automatically validate megavoltage beams modeled in XiO™ 4.50 (Elekta, Stockholm, Sweden) and Varian Eclipse™ Treatment Planning Systems (TPS) (Varian Associates, Palo Alto, CA, USA), reducing validation time before beam-on for clinical use. Methods: A software application that can automatically read and analyze DICOM RT Dose and W2CAD files was developed using MatLab integrated development environment.TPS calculated dose distributions, in DICOM RT Dose format, and dose values measured in different Varian Clinac beams, in W2CAD format, were compared. Experimental beam data used were those acquired for beam commissioning, collected on a water phantom with a 2D automatic beam scanning system.Two methods were chosen to evaluate dose distributions fitting: gamma analysis and point tests described in Appendix E of IAEA TECDOC-1583. Depth dose curves and beam profiles were evaluated for both open and wedged beams. Tolerance parameters chosen for gamma analysis are 3% and 3 mm dose and distance, respectively.Absolute dose was measured independently at points proposed in Appendix E of TECDOC-1583 to validate software results. Results: TPS calculated depth dose distributions agree with measured beam data under fixed precision values at all depths analyzed. Measured beam dose profiles match TPS calculated doses with high accuracy in both open and wedged beams. Depth and profile dose distributions fitting analysis show gamma values < 1. Relative errors at points proposed in Appendix E of TECDOC-1583 meet therein recommended tolerances.Independent absolute dose measurements at points proposed in Appendix E of TECDOC-1583 confirm software results. Conclusion: Automatic validation of megavoltage beams modeled for their use in the clinic was accomplished. The software tool developed proved efficient, giving users a convenient and reliable environment to decide whether to accept or not a beam model for clinical use. Validation time before beam-on for clinical use

AN AUTOMATIC OPTICAL AND SAR IMAGE REGISTRATION METHOD USING ITERATIVE MULTI-LEVEL AND REFINEMENT MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Xu

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Automatic image registration is a vital yet challenging task, particularly for multi-sensor remote sensing images. Given the diversity of the data, it is unlikely that a single registration algorithm or a single image feature will work satisfactorily for all applications. Focusing on this issue, the mainly contribution of this paper is to propose an automatic optical-to-SAR image registration method using –level and refinement model: Firstly, a multi-level strategy of coarse-to-fine registration is presented, the visual saliency features is used to acquire coarse registration, and then specific area and line features are used to refine the registration result, after that, sub-pixel matching is applied using KNN Graph. Secondly, an iterative strategy that involves adaptive parameter adjustment for re-extracting and re-matching features is presented. Considering the fact that almost all feature-based registration methods rely on feature extraction results, the iterative strategy improve the robustness of feature matching. And all parameters can be automatically and adaptively adjusted in the iterative procedure. Thirdly, a uniform level set segmentation model for optical and SAR images is presented to segment conjugate features, and Voronoi diagram is introduced into Spectral Point Matching (VSPM to further enhance the matching accuracy between two sets of matching points. Experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively and robustly generate sufficient, reliable point pairs and provide accurate registration.

Automatic generation of virtual worlds from architectural and mechanical CAD models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szepielak, D.

2003-12-01

Accelerator projects like the XFEL or the planned linear collider TESLA involve extensive architectural and mechanical design work, resulting in a variety of CAD models. The CAD models will be showing different parts of the project, like e.g. the different accelerator components or parts of the building complexes, and they will be created and stored by different groups in different formats. A complete CAD model of the accelerator and its buildings is thus difficult to obtain and would also be extremely huge and difficult to handle. This thesis describes the design and prototype development of a tool which automatically creates virtual worlds from different CAD models. The tool will enable the user to select a required area for visualization on a map, and then create a 3D-model of the selected area which can be displayed in a web-browser. The thesis first discusses the system requirements and provides some background on data visualization. Then, it introduces the system architecture, the algorithms and the used technologies, and finally demonstrates the capabilities of the system using two case studies. (orig.)

A multifactorial likelihood model for MMR gene variant classification incorporating probabilities based on sequence bioinformatics and tumor characteristics: a report from the Colon Cancer Family Registry.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Bryony A; Goldgar, David E; Paterson, Carol; Clendenning, Mark; Walters, Rhiannon; Arnold, Sven; Parsons, Michael T; Michael D, Walsh; Gallinger, Steven; Haile, Robert W; Hopper, John L; Jenkins, Mark A; Lemarchand, Loic; Lindor, Noralane M; Newcomb, Polly A; Thibodeau, Stephen N; Young, Joanne P; Buchanan, Daniel D; Tavtigian, Sean V; Spurdle, Amanda B

2013-01-01

Mismatch repair (MMR) gene sequence variants of uncertain clinical significance are often identified in suspected Lynch syndrome families, and this constitutes a challenge for both researchers and clinicians. Multifactorial likelihood model approaches provide a quantitative measure of MMR variant pathogenicity, but first require input of likelihood ratios (LRs) for different MMR variation-associated characteristics from appropriate, well-characterized reference datasets. Microsatellite instability (MSI) and somatic BRAF tumor data for unselected colorectal cancer probands of known pathogenic variant status were used to derive LRs for tumor characteristics using the Colon Cancer Family Registry (CFR) resource. These tumor LRs were combined with variant segregation within families, and estimates of prior probability of pathogenicity based on sequence conservation and position, to analyze 44 unclassified variants identified initially in Australasian Colon CFR families. In addition, in vitro splicing analyses were conducted on the subset of variants based on bioinformatic splicing predictions. The LR in favor of pathogenicity was estimated to be ~12-fold for a colorectal tumor with a BRAF mutation-negative MSI-H phenotype. For 31 of the 44 variants, the posterior probabilities of pathogenicity were such that altered clinical management would be indicated. Our findings provide a working multifactorial likelihood model for classification that carefully considers mode of ascertainment for gene testing. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Using the Elaboration Likelihood Model to Address Drunkorexia Among College Students.

Science.gov (United States)

Glassman, Tavis; Paprzycki, Peter; Castor, Thomas; Wotring, Amy; Wagner-Greene, Victoria; Ritzman, Matthew; Diehr, Aaron J; Kruger, Jessica

2017-12-26

The many consequences related to alcohol consumption among college students are well documented. Drunkorexia, a relatively new term and area of research, is characterized by skipping meals to reduce caloric intake and/or exercising excessively in attempt to compensate for calories associated with high volume drinking. The objective of this study was to use the Elaboration Likelihood Model to compare the impact of central and peripheral prevention messages on alcohol consumption and drunkorexic behavior. Researchers employed a quasi-experimental design, collecting pre- or post-test data from 172 college students living in residence halls at a large Midwestern university, to assess the impact of the prevention messages. Participants in the treatment groups received the message in person (flyer), through email, and via a text message in weekly increments. Results showed that participants exposed to the peripherally framed message decreased the frequency of their alcohol consumption over a 30-day period (p =.003), the number of drinks they consumed the last time they drank (p =.029), the frequency they had more than five drinks over a 30-day period (p =.019), as well as the maximum number of drinks they had on any occasion in the past 30 days (p =.014). Conclusions/Importance: While more research is needed in this area, the findings from this study indicate that researchers and practitioners should design peripheral (short and succinct), rather than central (complex and detailed), messages to prevent drunkorexia and its associated behaviors.

Automatic pre-processing for an object-oriented distributed hydrological model using GRASS-GIS

Science.gov (United States)

Sanzana, P.; Jankowfsky, S.; Branger, F.; Braud, I.; Vargas, X.; Hitschfeld, N.

2012-04-01

Landscapes are very heterogeneous, which impact the hydrological processes occurring in the catchments, especially in the modeling of peri-urban catchments. The Hydrological Response Units (HRUs), resulting from the intersection of different maps, such as land use, soil types and geology, and flow networks, allow the representation of these elements in an explicit way, preserving natural and artificial contours of the different layers. These HRUs are used as model mesh in some distributed object-oriented hydrological models, allowing the application of a topological oriented approach. The connectivity between polygons and polylines provides a detailed representation of the water balance and overland flow in these distributed hydrological models, based on irregular hydro-landscape units. When computing fluxes between these HRUs, the geometrical parameters, such as the distance between the centroid of gravity of the HRUs and the river network, and the length of the perimeter, can impact the realism of the calculated overland, sub-surface and groundwater fluxes. Therefore, it is necessary to process the original model mesh in order to avoid these numerical problems. We present an automatic pre-processing implemented in the open source GRASS-GIS software, for which several Python scripts or some algorithms already available were used, such as the Triangle software. First, some scripts were developed to improve the topology of the various elements, such as snapping of the river network to the closest contours. When data are derived with remote sensing, such as vegetation areas, their perimeter has lots of right angles that were smoothed. Second, the algorithms more particularly address bad-shaped elements of the model mesh such as polygons with narrow shapes, marked irregular contours and/or the centroid outside of the polygons. To identify these elements we used shape descriptors. The convexity index was considered the best descriptor to identify them with a threshold

Automatic Assessment of Craniofacial Growth in a Mouse Model of Crouzon Syndrome

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorup, Signe Strann; Larsen, Rasmus; Darvann, Tron Andre

2009-01-01

for each mouse-type; growth models were created using linear interpolation and visualized as 3D animations. Spatial regions of significantly different growth were identified using the local False Discovery Rate method, estimating the expected percentage of false predictions in a set of predictions. For all......-rigid volumetric image registration was applied to micro-CT scans of ten 4-week and twenty 6-week euthanized mice for growth modeling. Each age group consisted of 50% normal and 50% Crouzon mice. Four 3D mean shapes, one for each mouse-type and age group were created. Extracting a dense field of growth vectors...... a tool for spatially detailed automatic phenotyping. MAIN OBJECTIVES OF PRESENTATION: We will present a 3D growth model of normal and Crouzon mice, and differences will be statistically and visually compared....

Extending the Applicability of the Generalized Likelihood Function for Zero-Inflated Data Series

Science.gov (United States)

Oliveira, Debora Y.; Chaffe, Pedro L. B.; Sá, João. H. M.

2018-03-01

Proper uncertainty estimation for data series with a high proportion of zero and near zero observations has been a challenge in hydrologic studies. This technical note proposes a modification to the Generalized Likelihood function that accounts for zero inflation of the error distribution (ZI-GL). We compare the performance of the proposed ZI-GL with the original Generalized Likelihood function using the entire data series (GL) and by simply suppressing zero observations (GLy>0). These approaches were applied to two interception modeling examples characterized by data series with a significant number of zeros. The ZI-GL produced better uncertainty ranges than the GL as measured by the precision, reliability and volumetric bias metrics. The comparison between ZI-GL and GLy>0 highlights the need for further improvement in the treatment of residuals from near zero simulations when a linear heteroscedastic error model is considered. Aside from the interception modeling examples illustrated herein, the proposed ZI-GL may be useful for other hydrologic studies, such as for the modeling of the runoff generation in hillslopes and ephemeral catchments.

Risk Presentation Using the Three Dimensions of Likelihood, Severity, and Level of Control

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Clifford

2010-01-01

Traditional hazard analysis techniques utilize a two-dimensional representation of the results determined by relative likelihood and severity of the residual risk. These matrices present a quick-look at the Likelihood (Y-axis) and Severity (X-axis) of the probable outcome of a hazardous event. A three-dimensional method, described herein, utilizes the traditional X and Y axes, while adding a new, third dimension, shown as the Z-axis, and referred to as the Level of Control. The elements of the Z-axis are modifications of the Hazard Elimination and Control steps (also known as the Hazard Reduction Precedence Sequence). These steps are: 1. Eliminate risk through design. 2. Substitute less risky materials for more hazardous materials. 3. Install safety devices. 4. Install caution and warning devices. 5. Develop administrative controls (to include special procedures and training.) 6. Provide protective clothing and equipment. When added to the two-dimensional models, the level of control adds a visual representation of the risk associated with the hazardous condition, creating a tall-pole for the leastwell-controlled failure while establishing the relative likelihood and severity of all causes and effects for an identified hazard. Computer modeling of the analytical results, using spreadsheets and three-dimensional charting gives a visual confirmation of the relationship between causes and their controls.

Adjustment of automatic control systems of production facilities at coal processing plants using multivariant physico- mathematical models

Science.gov (United States)

Evtushenko, V. F.; Myshlyaev, L. P.; Makarov, G. V.; Ivushkin, K. A.; Burkova, E. V.

2016-10-01

The structure of multi-variant physical and mathematical models of control system is offered as well as its application for adjustment of automatic control system (ACS) of production facilities on the example of coal processing plant.

Efficient estimators for likelihood ratio sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arampatzis, Georgios; Katsoulakis, Markos A.; Rey-Bellet, Luc [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts 01003 (United States)

2016-03-14

We demonstrate that centered likelihood ratio estimators for the sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics are highly efficient with low, constant in time variance and consequently they are suitable for sensitivity analysis in long-time and steady-state regimes. These estimators rely on a new covariance formulation of the likelihood ratio that includes as a submatrix a Fisher information matrix for stochastic dynamics and can also be used for fast screening of insensitive parameters and parameter combinations. The proposed methods are applicable to broad classes of stochastic dynamics such as chemical reaction networks, Langevin-type equations and stochastic models in finance, including systems with a high dimensional parameter space and/or disparate decorrelation times between different observables. Furthermore, they are simple to implement as a standard observable in any existing simulation algorithm without additional modifications.

Likelihood updating of random process load and resistance parameters by monitoring

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Friis-Hansen, Peter; Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

2003-01-01

that maximum likelihood estimation is a rational alternative to an arbitrary weighting for least square fitting. The derived likelihood function gets singularities if the spectrum is prescribed with zero values at some frequencies. This is often the case for models of technically relevant processes......, even though it is of complicated mathematical form, allows an approximate Bayesian updating and control of the time development of the parameters. Some of these parameters can be structural parameters that by too much change reveal progressing damage or other malfunctioning. Thus current process......Spectral parameters for a stationary Gaussian process are most often estimated by Fourier transformation of a realization followed by some smoothing procedure. This smoothing is often a weighted least square fitting of some prespecified parametric form of the spectrum. In this paper it is shown...

Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) Using Multi-Optimization Algorithm as Sampling Method

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Z.

2015-12-01

For decades, distributed and lumped hydrological models have furthered our understanding of hydrological system. The development of hydrological simulation in large scale and high precision elaborated the spatial descriptions and hydrological behaviors. Meanwhile, the new trend is also followed by the increment of model complexity and number of parameters, which brings new challenges of uncertainty quantification. Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) has been widely used in uncertainty analysis for hydrological models referring to Monte Carlo method coupled with Bayesian estimation. However, the stochastic sampling method of prior parameters adopted by GLUE appears inefficient, especially in high dimensional parameter space. The heuristic optimization algorithms utilizing iterative evolution show better convergence speed and optimality-searching performance. In light of the features of heuristic optimization algorithms, this study adopted genetic algorithm, differential evolution, shuffled complex evolving algorithm to search the parameter space and obtain the parameter sets of large likelihoods. Based on the multi-algorithm sampling, hydrological model uncertainty analysis is conducted by the typical GLUE framework. To demonstrate the superiority of the new method, two hydrological models of different complexity are examined. The results shows the adaptive method tends to be efficient in sampling and effective in uncertainty analysis, providing an alternative path for uncertainty quantilization.

Use of Maximum Likelihood-Mixed Models to select stable reference genes: a case of heat stress response in sheep

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Salces Judit

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Reference genes with stable expression are required to normalize expression differences of target genes in qPCR experiments. Several procedures and companion software have been proposed to find the most stable genes. Model based procedures are attractive because they provide a solid statistical framework. NormFinder, a widely used software, uses a model based method. The pairwise comparison procedure implemented in GeNorm is a simpler procedure but one of the most extensively used. In the present work a statistical approach based in Maximum Likelihood estimation under mixed models was tested and compared with NormFinder and geNorm softwares. Sixteen candidate genes were tested in whole blood samples from control and heat stressed sheep. Results A model including gene and treatment as fixed effects, sample (animal, gene by treatment, gene by sample and treatment by sample interactions as random effects with heteroskedastic residual variance in gene by treatment levels was selected using goodness of fit and predictive ability criteria among a variety of models. Mean Square Error obtained under the selected model was used as indicator of gene expression stability. Genes top and bottom ranked by the three approaches were similar; however, notable differences for the best pair of genes selected for each method and the remaining genes of the rankings were shown. Differences among the expression values of normalized targets for each statistical approach were also found. Conclusions Optimal statistical properties of Maximum Likelihood estimation joined to mixed model flexibility allow for more accurate estimation of expression stability of genes under many different situations. Accurate selection of reference genes has a direct impact over the normalized expression values of a given target gene. This may be critical when the aim of the study is to compare expression rate differences among samples under different environmental

MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD CLASSIFICATION OF HIGH-RESOLUTION SAR IMAGES IN URBAN AREA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Soheili Majd

2012-09-01

Full Text Available In this work, we propose a state-of-the-art on statistical analysis of polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR data, through the modeling of several indices. We concentrate on eight ground classes which have been carried out from amplitudes, co-polarisation ratio, depolarization ratios, and other polarimetric descriptors. To study their different statistical behaviours, we consider Gauss, log- normal, Beta I, Weibull, Gamma, and Fisher statistical models and estimate their parameters using three methods: method of moments (MoM, maximum-likelihood (ML methodology, and log-cumulants method (MoML. Then, we study the opportunity of introducing this information in an adapted supervised classification scheme based on Maximum–Likelihood and Fisher pdf. Our work relies on an image of a suburban area, acquired by the airborne RAMSES SAR sensor of ONERA. The results prove the potential of such data to discriminate urban surfaces and show the usefulness of adapting any classical classification algorithm however classification maps present a persistant class confusion between flat gravelled or concrete roofs and trees.

Automatic bladder segmentation on CBCT for multiple plan ART of bladder cancer using a patient-specific bladder model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xiangfei, Chai; Hulshof, Maarten; Bel, Arjan [Department of Radiotherapy, Academic medical Center, University of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Van Herk, Marcel; Betgen, Anja [Department of Radiotherapy, The Netherlands Cancer Institute/Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, 1066 CX, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2012-06-21

In multiple plan adaptive radiotherapy (ART) strategies of bladder cancer, a library of plans corresponding to different bladder volumes is created based on images acquired in early treatment sessions. Subsequently, the plan for the smallest PTV safely covering the bladder on cone-beam CT (CBCT) is selected as the plan of the day. The aim of this study is to develop an automatic bladder segmentation approach suitable for CBCT scans and test its ability to select the appropriate plan from the library of plans for such an ART procedure. Twenty-three bladder cancer patients with a planning CT and on average 11.6 CBCT scans were included in our study. For each patient, all CBCT scans were matched to the planning CT on bony anatomy. Bladder contours were manually delineated for each planning CT (for model building) and CBCT (for model building and validation). The automatic segmentation method consisted of two steps. A patient-specific bladder deformation model was built from the training data set of each patient (the planning CT and the first five CBCT scans). Then, the model was applied to automatically segment bladders in the validation data of the same patient (the remaining CBCT scans). Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to the training data to model patient-specific bladder deformation patterns. The number of PCA modes for each patient was chosen such that the bladder shapes in the training set could be represented by such number of PCA modes with less than 0.1 cm mean residual error. The automatic segmentation started from the bladder shape of a reference CBCT, which was adjusted by changing the weight of each PCA mode. As a result, the segmentation contour was deformed consistently with the training set to fit the bladder in the validation image. A cost function was defined by the absolute difference between the directional gradient field of reference CBCT sampled on the corresponding bladder contour and the directional gradient field of validation

Automatic bladder segmentation on CBCT for multiple plan ART of bladder cancer using a patient-specific bladder model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chai Xiangfei; Hulshof, Maarten; Bel, Arjan; Van Herk, Marcel; Betgen, Anja

2012-01-01

In multiple plan adaptive radiotherapy (ART) strategies of bladder cancer, a library of plans corresponding to different bladder volumes is created based on images acquired in early treatment sessions. Subsequently, the plan for the smallest PTV safely covering the bladder on cone-beam CT (CBCT) is selected as the plan of the day. The aim of this study is to develop an automatic bladder segmentation approach suitable for CBCT scans and test its ability to select the appropriate plan from the library of plans for such an ART procedure. Twenty-three bladder cancer patients with a planning CT and on average 11.6 CBCT scans were included in our study. For each patient, all CBCT scans were matched to the planning CT on bony anatomy. Bladder contours were manually delineated for each planning CT (for model building) and CBCT (for model building and validation). The automatic segmentation method consisted of two steps. A patient-specific bladder deformation model was built from the training data set of each patient (the planning CT and the first five CBCT scans). Then, the model was applied to automatically segment bladders in the validation data of the same patient (the remaining CBCT scans). Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to the training data to model patient-specific bladder deformation patterns. The number of PCA modes for each patient was chosen such that the bladder shapes in the training set could be represented by such number of PCA modes with less than 0.1 cm mean residual error. The automatic segmentation started from the bladder shape of a reference CBCT, which was adjusted by changing the weight of each PCA mode. As a result, the segmentation contour was deformed consistently with the training set to fit the bladder in the validation image. A cost function was defined by the absolute difference between the directional gradient field of reference CBCT sampled on the corresponding bladder contour and the directional gradient field of validation

Targeted maximum likelihood estimation for a binary treatment: A tutorial.

Science.gov (United States)

Luque-Fernandez, Miguel Angel; Schomaker, Michael; Rachet, Bernard; Schnitzer, Mireille E

2018-04-23

When estimating the average effect of a binary treatment (or exposure) on an outcome, methods that incorporate propensity scores, the G-formula, or targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) are preferred over naïve regression approaches, which are biased under misspecification of a parametric outcome model. In contrast propensity score methods require the correct specification of an exposure model. Double-robust methods only require correct specification of either the outcome or the exposure model. Targeted maximum likelihood estimation is a semiparametric double-robust method that improves the chances of correct model specification by allowing for flexible estimation using (nonparametric) machine-learning methods. It therefore requires weaker assumptions than its competitors. We provide a step-by-step guided implementation of TMLE and illustrate it in a realistic scenario based on cancer epidemiology where assumptions about correct model specification and positivity (ie, when a study participant had 0 probability of receiving the treatment) are nearly violated. This article provides a concise and reproducible educational introduction to TMLE for a binary outcome and exposure. The reader should gain sufficient understanding of TMLE from this introductory tutorial to be able to apply the method in practice. Extensive R-code is provided in easy-to-read boxes throughout the article for replicability. Stata users will find a testing implementation of TMLE and additional material in the Appendix S1 and at the following GitHub repository: https://github.com/migariane/SIM-TMLE-tutorial. © 2018 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Application of nonlinear transformations to automatic flight control

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, G.; Su, R.; Hunt, L. R.

1984-01-01

The theory of transformations of nonlinear systems to linear ones is applied to the design of an automatic flight controller for the UH-1H helicopter. The helicopter mathematical model is described and it is shown to satisfy the necessary and sufficient conditions for transformability. The mapping is constructed, taking the nonlinear model to canonical form. The performance of the automatic control system in a detailed simulation on the flight computer is summarized.

Bayesian interpretation of Generalized empirical likelihood by maximum entropy

OpenAIRE

Rochet , Paul

2011-01-01

We study a parametric estimation problem related to moment condition models. As an alternative to the generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) and the generalized method of moments (GMM), a Bayesian approach to the problem can be adopted, extending the MEM procedure to parametric moment conditions. We show in particular that a large number of GEL estimators can be interpreted as a maximum entropy solution. Moreover, we provide a more general field of applications by proving the method to be rob...

Cosmic shear measurement with maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori inference

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Alex; Taylor, Andy

2017-06-01

We investigate the problem of noise bias in maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori estimators for cosmic shear. We derive the leading and next-to-leading order biases and compute them in the context of galaxy ellipticity measurements, extending previous work on maximum likelihood inference for weak lensing. We show that a large part of the bias on these point estimators can be removed using information already contained in the likelihood when a galaxy model is specified, without the need for external calibration. We test these bias-corrected estimators on simulated galaxy images similar to those expected from planned space-based weak lensing surveys, with promising results. We find that the introduction of an intrinsic shape prior can help with mitigation of noise bias, such that the maximum a posteriori estimate can be made less biased than the maximum likelihood estimate. Second-order terms offer a check on the convergence of the estimators, but are largely subdominant. We show how biases propagate to shear estimates, demonstrating in our simple set-up that shear biases can be reduced by orders of magnitude and potentially to within the requirements of planned space-based surveys at mild signal-to-noise ratio. We find that second-order terms can exhibit significant cancellations at low signal-to-noise ratio when Gaussian noise is assumed, which has implications for inferring the performance of shear-measurement algorithms from simplified simulations. We discuss the viability of our point estimators as tools for lensing inference, arguing that they allow for the robust measurement of ellipticity and shear.

Climatic and ecological future of the Amazon: likelihood and causes of change

OpenAIRE

B. Cook; N. Zeng; J.-H. Yoon

2010-01-01

Some recent climate modeling results suggested a possible dieback of the Amazon rainforest under future climate change, a prediction that raised considerable interest as well as controversy. To determine the likelihood and causes of such changes, we analyzed the output of 15 models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR4) and a dynamic vegetation model VEGAS driven by these climate output. Our results suggest that the core of the Amazon rainforest...

Transfer Entropy as a Log-Likelihood Ratio

Science.gov (United States)

Barnett, Lionel; Bossomaier, Terry

2012-09-01

Transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between joint processes, has steadily gained popularity in the analysis of complex stochastic dynamics in diverse fields, including the neurosciences, ecology, climatology, and econometrics. We show that for a broad class of predictive models, the log-likelihood ratio test statistic for the null hypothesis of zero transfer entropy is a consistent estimator for the transfer entropy itself. For finite Markov chains, furthermore, no explicit model is required. In the general case, an asymptotic χ2 distribution is established for the transfer entropy estimator. The result generalizes the equivalence in the Gaussian case of transfer entropy and Granger causality, a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression, and establishes a fundamental connection between directed information transfer and causality in the Wiener-Granger sense.

Integrating automatic and controlled processes into neurocognitive models of social cognition.

Science.gov (United States)

Satpute, Ajay B; Lieberman, Matthew D

2006-03-24

Interest in the neural systems underlying social perception has expanded tremendously over the past few decades. However, gaps between behavioral literatures in social perception and neuroscience are still abundant. In this article, we apply the concept of dual-process models to neural systems in an effort to bridge the gap between many of these behavioral studies and neural systems underlying social perception. We describe and provide support for a neural division between reflexive and reflective systems. Reflexive systems correspond to automatic processes and include the amygdala, basal ganglia, ventromedial prefrontal cortex, dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, and lateral temporal cortex. Reflective systems correspond to controlled processes and include lateral prefrontal cortex, posterior parietal cortex, medial prefrontal cortex, rostral anterior cingulate cortex, and the hippocampus and surrounding medial temporal lobe region. This framework is considered to be a working model rather than a finished product. Finally, the utility of this model and its application to other social cognitive domains such as Theory of Mind are discussed.

Automatic Sex Determination of Skulls Based on a Statistical Shape Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Luo

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Sex determination from skeletons is an important research subject in forensic medicine. Previous skeletal sex assessments are through subjective visual analysis by anthropologists or metric analysis of sexually dimorphic features. In this work, we present an automatic sex determination method for 3D digital skulls, in which a statistical shape model for skulls is constructed, which projects the high-dimensional skull data into a low-dimensional shape space, and Fisher discriminant analysis is used to classify skulls in the shape space. This method combines the advantages of metrical and morphological methods. It is easy to use without professional qualification and tedious manual measurement. With a group of Chinese skulls including 127 males and 81 females, we choose 92 males and 58 females to establish the discriminant model and validate the model with the other skulls. The correct rate is 95.7% and 91.4% for females and males, respectively. Leave-one-out test also shows that the method has a high accuracy.

Computationally Efficient Automatic Coast Mode Target Tracking Based on Occlusion Awareness in Infrared Images.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Sohyun; Jang, Gwang-Il; Kim, Sungho; Kim, Junmo

2018-03-27

This paper proposes the automatic coast mode tracking of centroid trackers for infrared images to overcome the target occlusion status. The centroid tracking method, using only the brightness information of an image, is still widely used in infrared imaging tracking systems because it is difficult to extract meaningful features from infrared images. However, centroid trackers are likely to lose the track because they are highly vulnerable to screened status by the clutter or background. Coast mode, one of the tracking modes, maintains the servo slew rate with the tracking rate right before the loss of track. The proposed automatic coast mode tracking method makes decisions regarding entering coast mode by the prediction of target occlusion and tries to re-lock the target and resume the tracking after blind time. This algorithm comprises three steps. The first step is the prediction process of the occlusion by checking both matters which have target-likelihood brightness and which may screen the target despite different brightness. The second step is the process making inertial tracking commands to the servo. The last step is the process of re-locking a target based on the target modeling of histogram ratio. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is addressed by presenting experimental results based on computer simulation with various test imagery sequences compared to published tracking algorithms. The proposed algorithm is tested under a real environment with a naval electro-optical tracking system (EOTS) and airborne EO/IR system.

Computationally Efficient Automatic Coast Mode Target Tracking Based on Occlusion Awareness in Infrared Images

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sohyun Kim

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes the automatic coast mode tracking of centroid trackers for infrared images to overcome the target occlusion status. The centroid tracking method, using only the brightness information of an image, is still widely used in infrared imaging tracking systems because it is difficult to extract meaningful features from infrared images. However, centroid trackers are likely to lose the track because they are highly vulnerable to screened status by the clutter or background. Coast mode, one of the tracking modes, maintains the servo slew rate with the tracking rate right before the loss of track. The proposed automatic coast mode tracking method makes decisions regarding entering coast mode by the prediction of target occlusion and tries to re-lock the target and resume the tracking after blind time. This algorithm comprises three steps. The first step is the prediction process of the occlusion by checking both matters which have target-likelihood brightness and which may screen the target despite different brightness. The second step is the process making inertial tracking commands to the servo. The last step is the process of re-locking a target based on the target modeling of histogram ratio. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is addressed by presenting experimental results based on computer simulation with various test imagery sequences compared to published tracking algorithms. The proposed algorithm is tested under a real environment with a naval electro-optical tracking system (EOTS and airborne EO/IR system.

Model-based vision system for automatic recognition of structures in dental radiographs

Science.gov (United States)

Acharya, Raj S.; Samarabandu, Jagath K.; Hausmann, E.; Allen, K. A.

1991-07-01

X-ray diagnosis of destructive periodontal disease requires assessing serial radiographs by an expert to determine the change in the distance between cemento-enamel junction (CEJ) and the bone crest. To achieve this without the subjectivity of a human expert, a knowledge based system is proposed to automatically locate the two landmarks which are the CEJ and the level of alveolar crest at its junction with the periodontal ligament space. This work is a part of an ongoing project to automatically measure the distance between CEJ and the bone crest along a line parallel to the axis of the tooth. The approach presented in this paper is based on identifying a prominent feature such as the tooth boundary using local edge detection and edge thresholding to establish a reference and then using model knowledge to process sub-regions in locating the landmarks. Segmentation techniques invoked around these regions consists of a neural-network like hierarchical refinement scheme together with local gradient extraction, multilevel thresholding and ridge tracking. Recognition accuracy is further improved by first locating the easily identifiable parts of the bone surface and the interface between the enamel and the dentine and then extending these boundaries towards the periodontal ligament space and the tooth boundary respectively. The system is realized as a collection of tools (or knowledge sources) for pre-processing, segmentation, primary and secondary feature detection and a control structure based on the blackboard model to coordinate the activities of these tools.

PHOTOGRAMMETRIC MODEL BASED METHOD OF AUTOMATIC ORIENTATION OF SPACE CARGO SHIP RELATIVE TO THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. B. Blokhinov

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The technical problem of creating the new Russian version of an automatic Space Cargo Ship (SCS for the International Space Station (ISS is inseparably connected to the development of a digital video system for automatically measuring the SCS position relative to ISS in the process of spacecraft docking. This paper presents a method for estimating the orientation elements based on the use of a highly detailed digital model of the ISS. The input data are digital frames from a calibrated video system and the initial values of orientation elements, these can be estimated from navigation devices or by fast-and-rough viewpoint-dependent algorithm. Then orientation elements should be defined precisely by means of algorithmic processing. The main idea is to solve the exterior orientation problem mainly on the basis of contour information of the frame image of ISS instead of ground control points. A detailed digital model is used for generating raster templates of ISS nodes; the templates are used to detect and locate the nodes on the target image with the required accuracy. The process is performed for every frame, the resulting parameters are considered to be the orientation elements. The Kalman filter is used for statistical support of the estimation process and real time pose tracking. Finally, the modeling results presented show that the proposed method can be regarded as one means to ensure the algorithmic support of automatic space ships docking.

Updated logistic regression equations for the calculation of post-fire debris-flow likelihood in the western United States

Science.gov (United States)

Staley, Dennis M.; Negri, Jacquelyn A.; Kean, Jason W.; Laber, Jayme L.; Tillery, Anne C.; Youberg, Ann M.

2016-06-30

Wildfire can significantly alter the hydrologic response of a watershed to the extent that even modest rainstorms can generate dangerous flash floods and debris flows. To reduce public exposure to hazard, the U.S. Geological Survey produces post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments for select fires in the western United States. We use publicly available geospatial data describing basin morphology, burn severity, soil properties, and rainfall characteristics to estimate the statistical likelihood that debris flows will occur in response to a storm of a given rainfall intensity. Using an empirical database and refined geospatial analysis methods, we defined new equations for the prediction of debris-flow likelihood using logistic regression methods. We showed that the new logistic regression model outperformed previous models used to predict debris-flow likelihood.

SkyFACT: high-dimensional modeling of gamma-ray emission with adaptive templates and penalized likelihoods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Storm, Emma; Weniger, Christoph [GRAPPA, Institute of Physics, University of Amsterdam, Science Park 904, 1090 GL Amsterdam (Netherlands); Calore, Francesca, E-mail: e.m.storm@uva.nl, E-mail: c.weniger@uva.nl, E-mail: francesca.calore@lapth.cnrs.fr [LAPTh, CNRS, 9 Chemin de Bellevue, BP-110, Annecy-le-Vieux, 74941, Annecy Cedex (France)

2017-08-01

We present SkyFACT (Sky Factorization with Adaptive Constrained Templates), a new approach for studying, modeling and decomposing diffuse gamma-ray emission. Like most previous analyses, the approach relies on predictions from cosmic-ray propagation codes like GALPROP and DRAGON. However, in contrast to previous approaches, we account for the fact that models are not perfect and allow for a very large number (∼> 10{sup 5}) of nuisance parameters to parameterize these imperfections. We combine methods of image reconstruction and adaptive spatio-spectral template regression in one coherent hybrid approach. To this end, we use penalized Poisson likelihood regression, with regularization functions that are motivated by the maximum entropy method. We introduce methods to efficiently handle the high dimensionality of the convex optimization problem as well as the associated semi-sparse covariance matrix, using the L-BFGS-B algorithm and Cholesky factorization. We test the method both on synthetic data as well as on gamma-ray emission from the inner Galaxy, |ℓ|<90{sup o} and | b |<20{sup o}, as observed by the Fermi Large Area Telescope. We finally define a simple reference model that removes most of the residual emission from the inner Galaxy, based on conventional diffuse emission components as well as components for the Fermi bubbles, the Fermi Galactic center excess, and extended sources along the Galactic disk. Variants of this reference model can serve as basis for future studies of diffuse emission in and outside the Galactic disk.

Cost-benefit analysis of the ATM automatic deposit service

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivica Županović

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Bankers and other financial experts have analyzed the value of automated teller machines (ATM in terms of growing consumer demand, rising costs of technology development, decreasing profitability and market share. This paper presents a step-by-step cost-benefit analysis of the ATM automatic deposit service. The first step is to determine user attitudes towards using ATM automatic deposit service by using the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM. The second step is to determine location priorities for ATMs that provide automatic deposit services using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP model. The results of the previous steps enable a highly efficient application of cost-benefit analysis for evaluating costs and benefits of automatic deposit services. To understand fully the proposed procedure outside of theoretical terms, a real-world application of a case study is conducted.

Multiobjective Optimal Algorithm for Automatic Calibration of Daily Streamflow Forecasting Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi Liu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Single-objection function cannot describe the characteristics of the complicated hydrologic system. Consequently, it stands to reason that multiobjective functions are needed for calibration of hydrologic model. The multiobjective algorithms based on the theory of nondominate are employed to solve this multiobjective optimal problem. In this paper, a novel multiobjective optimization method based on differential evolution with adaptive Cauchy mutation and Chaos searching (MODE-CMCS is proposed to optimize the daily streamflow forecasting model. Besides, to enhance the diversity performance of Pareto solutions, a more precise crowd distance assigner is presented in this paper. Furthermore, the traditional generalized spread metric (SP is sensitive with the size of Pareto set. A novel diversity performance metric, which is independent of Pareto set size, is put forward in this research. The efficacy of the new algorithm MODE-CMCS is compared with the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II on a daily streamflow forecasting model based on support vector machine (SVM. The results verify that the performance of MODE-CMCS is superior to the NSGA-II for automatic calibration of hydrologic model.

The modified signed likelihood statistic and saddlepoint approximations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jens Ledet

1992-01-01

SUMMARY: For a number of tests in exponential families we show that the use of a normal approximation to the modified signed likelihood ratio statistic r * is equivalent to the use of a saddlepoint approximation. This is also true in a large deviation region where the signed likelihood ratio...... statistic r is of order √ n. © 1992 Biometrika Trust....

Dual-model automatic detection of nerve-fibres in corneal confocal microscopy images.

Science.gov (United States)

Dabbah, M A; Graham, J; Petropoulos, I; Tavakoli, M; Malik, R A

2010-01-01

Corneal Confocal Microscopy (CCM) imaging is a non-invasive surrogate of detecting, quantifying and monitoring diabetic peripheral neuropathy. This paper presents an automated method for detecting nerve-fibres from CCM images using a dual-model detection algorithm and compares the performance to well-established texture and feature detection methods. The algorithm comprises two separate models, one for the background and another for the foreground (nerve-fibres), which work interactively. Our evaluation shows significant improvement (p approximately 0) in both error rate and signal-to-noise ratio of this model over the competitor methods. The automatic method is also evaluated in comparison with manual ground truth analysis in assessing diabetic neuropathy on the basis of nerve-fibre length, and shows a strong correlation (r = 0.92). Both analyses significantly separate diabetic patients from control subjects (p approximately 0).

A semi-automatic method for developing an anthropomorphic numerical model of dielectric anatomy by MRI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazzurana, M; Sandrini, L; Vaccari, A; Malacarne, C; Cristoforetti, L; Pontalti, R

2003-01-01

Complex permittivity values have a dominant role in the overall consideration of interaction between radiofrequency electromagnetic fields and living matter, and in related applications such as electromagnetic dosimetry. There are still some concerns about the accuracy of published data and about their variability due to the heterogeneous nature of biological tissues. The aim of this study is to provide an alternative semi-automatic method by which numerical dielectric human models for dosimetric studies can be obtained. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) tomography was used to acquire images. A new technique was employed to correct nonuniformities in the images and frequency-dependent transfer functions to correlate image intensity with complex permittivity were used. The proposed method provides frequency-dependent models in which permittivity and conductivity vary with continuity-even in the same tissue-reflecting the intrinsic realistic spatial dispersion of such parameters. The human model is tested with an FDTD (finite difference time domain) algorithm at different frequencies; the results of layer-averaged and whole-body-averaged SAR (specific absorption rate) are compared with published work, and reasonable agreement has been found. Due to the short time needed to obtain a whole body model, this semi-automatic method may be suitable for efficient study of various conditions that can determine large differences in the SAR distribution, such as body shape, posture, fat-to-muscle ratio, height and weight

Planck intermediate results: XVI. Profile likelihoods for cosmological parameters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bartlett, J.G.; Cardoso, J.-F.; Delabrouille, J.

2014-01-01

We explore the 2013 Planck likelihood function with a high-precision multi-dimensional minimizer (Minuit). This allows a refinement of the CDM best-fit solution with respect to previously-released results, and the construction of frequentist confidence intervals using profile likelihoods. The agr...

Planck 2013 results. XV. CMB power spectra and likelihood

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tauber, Jan; Bartlett, J.G.; Bucher, M.

2014-01-01

This paper presents the Planck 2013 likelihood, a complete statistical description of the two-point correlation function of the CMB temperature fluctuations that accounts for all known relevant uncertainties, both instrumental and astrophysical in nature. We use this likelihood to derive our best...

Gaussian likelihood inference on data from trans-Gaussian random fields with Matérn covariance function

KAUST Repository

Yan, Yuan; Genton, Marc G.

2017-01-01

Gaussian likelihood inference has been studied and used extensively in both statistical theory and applications due to its simplicity. However, in practice, the assumption of Gaussianity is rarely met in the analysis of spatial data. In this paper, we study the effect of non-Gaussianity on Gaussian likelihood inference for the parameters of the Matérn covariance model. By using Monte Carlo simulations, we generate spatial data from a Tukey g-and-h random field, a flexible trans-Gaussian random field, with the Matérn covariance function, where g controls skewness and h controls tail heaviness. We use maximum likelihood based on the multivariate Gaussian distribution to estimate the parameters of the Matérn covariance function. We illustrate the effects of non-Gaussianity of the data on the estimated covariance function by means of functional boxplots. Thanks to our tailored simulation design, a comparison of the maximum likelihood estimator under both the increasing and fixed domain asymptotics for spatial data is performed. We find that the maximum likelihood estimator based on Gaussian likelihood is overall satisfying and preferable than the non-distribution-based weighted least squares estimator for data from the Tukey g-and-h random field. We also present the result for Gaussian kriging based on Matérn covariance estimates with data from the Tukey g-and-h random field and observe an overall satisfactory performance.

Gaussian likelihood inference on data from trans-Gaussian random fields with Matérn covariance function

KAUST Repository

Yan, Yuan

2017-07-13

Gaussian likelihood inference has been studied and used extensively in both statistical theory and applications due to its simplicity. However, in practice, the assumption of Gaussianity is rarely met in the analysis of spatial data. In this paper, we study the effect of non-Gaussianity on Gaussian likelihood inference for the parameters of the Matérn covariance model. By using Monte Carlo simulations, we generate spatial data from a Tukey g-and-h random field, a flexible trans-Gaussian random field, with the Matérn covariance function, where g controls skewness and h controls tail heaviness. We use maximum likelihood based on the multivariate Gaussian distribution to estimate the parameters of the Matérn covariance function. We illustrate the effects of non-Gaussianity of the data on the estimated covariance function by means of functional boxplots. Thanks to our tailored simulation design, a comparison of the maximum likelihood estimator under both the increasing and fixed domain asymptotics for spatial data is performed. We find that the maximum likelihood estimator based on Gaussian likelihood is overall satisfying and preferable than the non-distribution-based weighted least squares estimator for data from the Tukey g-and-h random field. We also present the result for Gaussian kriging based on Matérn covariance estimates with data from the Tukey g-and-h random field and observe an overall satisfactory performance.

Estimating likelihood of future crashes for crash-prone drivers

OpenAIRE

Subasish Das; Xiaoduan Sun; Fan Wang; Charles Leboeuf

2015-01-01

At-fault crash-prone drivers are usually considered as the high risk group for possible future incidents or crashes. In Louisiana, 34% of crashes are repeatedly committed by the at-fault crash-prone drivers who represent only 5% of the total licensed drivers in the state. This research has conducted an exploratory data analysis based on the driver faultiness and proneness. The objective of this study is to develop a crash prediction model to estimate the likelihood of future crashes for the a...

Likelihood-based methods for evaluating principal surrogacy in augmented vaccine trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Wei; Zhang, Bo; Zhang, Hui; Zhang, Zhiwei

2017-04-01

There is growing interest in assessing immune biomarkers, which are quick to measure and potentially predictive of long-term efficacy, as surrogate endpoints in randomized, placebo-controlled vaccine trials. This can be done under a principal stratification approach, with principal strata defined using a subject's potential immune responses to vaccine and placebo (the latter may be assumed to be zero). In this context, principal surrogacy refers to the extent to which vaccine efficacy varies across principal strata. Because a placebo recipient's potential immune response to vaccine is unobserved in a standard vaccine trial, augmented vaccine trials have been proposed to produce the information needed to evaluate principal surrogacy. This article reviews existing methods based on an estimated likelihood and a pseudo-score (PS) and proposes two new methods based on a semiparametric likelihood (SL) and a pseudo-likelihood (PL), for analyzing augmented vaccine trials. Unlike the PS method, the SL method does not require a model for missingness, which can be advantageous when immune response data are missing by happenstance. The SL method is shown to be asymptotically efficient, and it performs similarly to the PS and PL methods in simulation experiments. The PL method appears to have a computational advantage over the PS and SL methods.

Some experimental results for an automatic helium liquefier

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watanabe, T.; Kudo, T.; Kuraoka, Y.; Sakura, K.; Tsuruga, H.; Watanabe, T.

1984-01-01

This chapter describes the testing of an automatic cooldown system. The liquefying machine examined is a CTi Model 1400. The automatic helium gas liquefying system is operated by using sequence control with a programmable controller. The automatic mode is carried out by operation of two compressors. The monitoring system consists of 41 remote sensors. Liquid level is measured by a superconducting level meter. The J-T valve and return valve, which require precise control, are operated by pulse motors. The advantages of the automatic cooldown system are reduced operator man power; temperatures and pressures are changed smoothly, so that the flow chart of automation is simple; and the system makes continuous liquefier operation possible

Ego involvement increases doping likelihood.

Science.gov (United States)

Ring, Christopher; Kavussanu, Maria

2018-08-01

Achievement goal theory provides a framework to help understand how individuals behave in achievement contexts, such as sport. Evidence concerning the role of motivation in the decision to use banned performance enhancing substances (i.e., doping) is equivocal on this issue. The extant literature shows that dispositional goal orientation has been weakly and inconsistently associated with doping intention and use. It is possible that goal involvement, which describes the situational motivational state, is a stronger determinant of doping intention. Accordingly, the current study used an experimental design to examine the effects of goal involvement, manipulated using direct instructions and reflective writing, on doping likelihood in hypothetical situations in college athletes. The ego-involving goal increased doping likelihood compared to no goal and a task-involving goal. The present findings provide the first evidence that ego involvement can sway the decision to use doping to improve athletic performance.

Cox regression with missing covariate data using a modified partial likelihood method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martinussen, Torben; Holst, Klaus K.; Scheike, Thomas H.

2016-01-01

Missing covariate values is a common problem in survival analysis. In this paper we propose a novel method for the Cox regression model that is close to maximum likelihood but avoids the use of the EM-algorithm. It exploits that the observed hazard function is multiplicative in the baseline hazard...

Automatic tuning of free electron lasers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Agapov, Ilya; Zagorodnov, Igor [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Geloni, Gianluca [European XFEL, Schenefeld (Germany); Tomin, Sergey [European XFEL, Schenefeld (Germany); NRC Kurchatov Institute, Moscow (Russian Federation)

2017-04-07

Existing FEL facilities often suffer from stability issues: so electron orbit, transverse electron optics, electron bunch compression and other parameters have to be readjusted often to account for drifts in performance of various components. The tuning procedures typically employed in operation are often manual and lengthy. We have been developing a combination of model-free and model-based automatic tuning methods to meet the needs of present and upcoming XFEL facilities. Our approach has been implemented at FLASH to achieve automatic SASE tuning using empirical control of orbit, electron optics and bunch compression. In this paper we describe our approach to empirical tuning, the software which implements it, and the results of using it at FLASH.We also discuss the potential of using machine learning and model-based techniques in tuning methods.

Automatic tuning of free electron lasers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Agapov, Ilya; Zagorodnov, Igor; Geloni, Gianluca; Tomin, Sergey

2017-01-01

Existing FEL facilities often suffer from stability issues: so electron orbit, transverse electron optics, electron bunch compression and other parameters have to be readjusted often to account for drifts in performance of various components. The tuning procedures typically employed in operation are often manual and lengthy. We have been developing a combination of model-free and model-based automatic tuning methods to meet the needs of present and upcoming XFEL facilities. Our approach has been implemented at FLASH to achieve automatic SASE tuning using empirical control of orbit, electron optics and bunch compression. In this paper we describe our approach to empirical tuning, the software which implements it, and the results of using it at FLASH.We also discuss the potential of using machine learning and model-based techniques in tuning methods.

Freezing of gait in Parkinson’s disease: disturbances in automaticity and control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jochen eVandenbossche

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Recent studies emphasize a key role of controlled operations, such as set-shifting and inhibition, in the occurrence of freezing of gait (FOG in Parkinson’s disease (PD. However, FOG can also be characterized as a de-automatization disorder, showing impairments in both the execution and acquisition of automaticity. The observed deficits in automaticity and executive functioning indicate that both processes are malfunctioning in freezers. Therefore, to explain FOG from a cognitive-based perspective, we present a model describing the pathways involved in automatic and controlled processes prior to a FOG episode. Crucially, we focus on disturbances in automaticity and control, regulated by the frontostriatal circuitry. In complex situations, non-freezing PD patients may compensate for deficits in automaticity by switching to increased cognitive control. However, as both automatic and controlled processes are more severely impaired in freezers, this hampers cognitive compensation in FOG, resulting in a potential breakdown. Future directions for cognitive rehabilitation are proposed, based on the cognitive model we put forward.

A review and comparison of Bayesian and likelihood-based inferences in beta regression and zero-or-one-inflated beta regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Fang; Eugenio, Evercita C

2018-04-01

Beta regression is an increasingly popular statistical technique in medical research for modeling of outcomes that assume values in (0, 1), such as proportions and patient reported outcomes. When outcomes take values in the intervals [0,1), (0,1], or [0,1], zero-or-one-inflated beta (zoib) regression can be used. We provide a thorough review on beta regression and zoib regression in the modeling, inferential, and computational aspects via the likelihood-based and Bayesian approaches. We demonstrate the statistical and practical importance of correctly modeling the inflation at zero/one rather than ad hoc replacing them with values close to zero/one via simulation studies; the latter approach can lead to biased estimates and invalid inferences. We show via simulation studies that the likelihood-based approach is computationally faster in general than MCMC algorithms used in the Bayesian inferences, but runs the risk of non-convergence, large biases, and sensitivity to starting values in the optimization algorithm especially with clustered/correlated data, data with sparse inflation at zero and one, and data that warrant regularization of the likelihood. The disadvantages of the regular likelihood-based approach make the Bayesian approach an attractive alternative in these cases. Software packages and tools for fitting beta and zoib regressions in both the likelihood-based and Bayesian frameworks are also reviewed.

Maximum likelihood-based analysis of photon arrival trajectories in single-molecule FRET

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waligorska, Marta [Adam Mickiewicz University, Faculty of Chemistry, Grunwaldzka 6, 60-780 Poznan (Poland); Molski, Andrzej, E-mail: amolski@amu.edu.pl [Adam Mickiewicz University, Faculty of Chemistry, Grunwaldzka 6, 60-780 Poznan (Poland)

2012-07-25

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We study model selection and parameter recovery from single-molecule FRET experiments. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We examine the maximum likelihood-based analysis of two-color photon trajectories. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The number of observed photons determines the performance of the method. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer For long trajectories, one can extract mean dwell times that are comparable to inter-photon times. -- Abstract: When two fluorophores (donor and acceptor) are attached to an immobilized biomolecule, anti-correlated fluctuations of the donor and acceptor fluorescence caused by Foerster resonance energy transfer (FRET) report on the conformational kinetics of the molecule. Here we assess the maximum likelihood-based analysis of donor and acceptor photon arrival trajectories as a method for extracting the conformational kinetics. Using computer generated data we quantify the accuracy and precision of parameter estimates and the efficiency of the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) in selecting the true kinetic model. We find that the number of observed photons is the key parameter determining parameter estimation and model selection. For long trajectories, one can extract mean dwell times that are comparable to inter-photon times.

Application of ANN-SCE model on the evaluation of automatic generation control performance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chang-Chien, L.R.; Lo, C.S.; Lee, K.S. [National Cheng Kung Univ., Tainan, Taiwan (China)

2005-07-01

An accurate evaluation of load frequency control (LFC) performance is needed to balance minute-to-minute electricity generation and demand. In this study, an artificial neural network-based system control error (ANN-SCE) model was used to assess the performance of automatic generation controls (AGC). The model was used to identify system dynamics for control references in supplementing AGC logic. The artificial neural network control error model was used to track a single area's LFC dynamics in Taiwan. The model was used to gauge the impacts of regulation control. Results of the training, evaluating, and projecting processes showed that the ANN-SCE model could be algebraically decomposed into components corresponding to different impact factors. The SCE information obtained from testing of various AGC gains provided data for the creation of a new control approach. The ANN-SCE model was used in conjunction with load forecasting and scheduled generation data to create an ANN-SCE identifier. The model successfully simulated SCE dynamics. 13 refs., 10 figs.

An Approach Using a 1D Hydraulic Model, Landsat Imaging and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation for an Approximation of Flood Discharge

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seung Oh Lee

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Collection and investigation of flood information are essential to understand the nature of floods, but this has proved difficult in data-poor environments, or in developing or under-developed countries due to economic and technological limitations. The development of remote sensing data, GIS, and modeling techniques have, therefore, proved to be useful tools in the analysis of the nature of floods. Accordingly, this study attempts to estimate a flood discharge using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE methodology and a 1D hydraulic model, with remote sensing data and topographic data, under the assumed condition that there is no gauge station in the Missouri river, Nebraska, and Wabash River, Indiana, in the United States. The results show that the use of Landsat leads to a better discharge approximation on a large-scale reach than on a small-scale. Discharge approximation using the GLUE depended on the selection of likelihood measures. Consideration of physical conditions in study reaches could, therefore, contribute to an appropriate selection of informal likely measurements. The river discharge assessed by using Landsat image and the GLUE Methodology could be useful in supplementing flood information for flood risk management at a planning level in ungauged basins. However, it should be noted that this approach to the real-time application might be difficult due to the GLUE procedure.

Quantifying the Establishment Likelihood of Invasive Alien Species Introductions Through Ports with Application to Honeybees in Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Heersink, Daniel K; Caley, Peter; Paini, Dean R; Barry, Simon C

2016-05-01

The cost of an uncontrolled incursion of invasive alien species (IAS) arising from undetected entry through ports can be substantial, and knowledge of port-specific risks is needed to help allocate limited surveillance resources. Quantifying the establishment likelihood of such an incursion requires quantifying the ability of a species to enter, establish, and spread. Estimation of the approach rate of IAS into ports provides a measure of likelihood of entry. Data on the approach rate of IAS are typically sparse, and the combinations of risk factors relating to country of origin and port of arrival diverse. This presents challenges to making formal statistical inference on establishment likelihood. Here we demonstrate how these challenges can be overcome with judicious use of mixed-effects models when estimating the incursion likelihood into Australia of the European (Apis mellifera) and Asian (A. cerana) honeybees, along with the invasive parasites of biosecurity concern they host (e.g., Varroa destructor). Our results demonstrate how skewed the establishment likelihood is, with one-tenth of the ports accounting for 80% or more of the likelihood for both species. These results have been utilized by biosecurity agencies in the allocation of resources to the surveillance of maritime ports. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Automatic Modelling of Rubble Mound Breakwaters from LIDAR Data

Science.gov (United States)

Bueno, M.; Díaz-Vilariño, L.; González-Jorge, H.; Martínez-Sánchez, J.; Arias, P.

2015-08-01

Rubble mound breakwaters maintenance is critical to the protection of beaches and ports. LiDAR systems provide accurate point clouds from the emerged part of the structure that can be modelled to make it more useful and easy to handle. This work introduces a methodology for the automatic modelling of breakwaters with armour units of cube shape. The algorithm is divided in three main steps: normal vector computation, plane segmentation, and cube reconstruction. Plane segmentation uses the normal orientation of the points and the edge length of the cube. Cube reconstruction uses the intersection of three perpendicular planes and the edge length. Three point clouds cropped from the main point cloud of the structure are used for the tests. The number of cubes detected is around 56 % for two of the point clouds and 32 % for the third one over the total physical cubes. Accuracy assessment is done by comparison with manually drawn cubes calculating the differences between the vertexes. It ranges between 6.4 cm and 15 cm. Computing time ranges between 578.5 s and 8018.2 s. The computing time increases with the number of cubes and the requirements of collision detection.

Likelihood-ratio-based biometric verification

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bazen, A.M.; Veldhuis, Raymond N.J.

2002-01-01

This paper presents results on optimal similarity measures for biometric verification based on fixed-length feature vectors. First, we show that the verification of a single user is equivalent to the detection problem, which implies that for single-user verification the likelihood ratio is optimal.

Likelihood Ratio-Based Biometric Verification

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bazen, A.M.; Veldhuis, Raymond N.J.

The paper presents results on optimal similarity measures for biometric verification based on fixed-length feature vectors. First, we show that the verification of a single user is equivalent to the detection problem, which implies that, for single-user verification, the likelihood ratio is optimal.

Automatic Segmentation of the Eye in 3D Magnetic Resonance Imaging: A Novel Statistical Shape Model for Treatment Planning of Retinoblastoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Ciller, Carlos; De Zanet, Sandro I; Rüegsegger, Michael B; Pica, Alessia; Sznitman, Raphael; Thiran, Jean-Philippe; Maeder, Philippe; Munier, Francis L; Kowal, Jens H; Cuadra, Meritxell Bach

2015-07-15

Proper delineation of ocular anatomy in 3-dimensional (3D) imaging is a big challenge, particularly when developing treatment plans for ocular diseases. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is presently used in clinical practice for diagnosis confirmation and treatment planning for treatment of retinoblastoma in infants, where it serves as a source of information, complementary to the fundus or ultrasonographic imaging. Here we present a framework to fully automatically segment the eye anatomy for MRI based on 3D active shape models (ASM), and we validate the results and present a proof of concept to automatically segment pathological eyes. Manual and automatic segmentation were performed in 24 images of healthy children's eyes (3.29 ± 2.15 years of age). Imaging was performed using a 3-T MRI scanner. The ASM consists of the lens, the vitreous humor, the sclera, and the cornea. The model was fitted by first automatically detecting the position of the eye center, the lens, and the optic nerve, and then aligning the model and fitting it to the patient. We validated our segmentation method by using a leave-one-out cross-validation. The segmentation results were evaluated by measuring the overlap, using the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) and the mean distance error. We obtained a DSC of 94.90 ± 2.12% for the sclera and the cornea, 94.72 ± 1.89% for the vitreous humor, and 85.16 ± 4.91% for the lens. The mean distance error was 0.26 ± 0.09 mm. The entire process took 14 seconds on average per eye. We provide a reliable and accurate tool that enables clinicians to automatically segment the sclera, the cornea, the vitreous humor, and the lens, using MRI. We additionally present a proof of concept for fully automatically segmenting eye pathology. This tool reduces the time needed for eye shape delineation and thus can help clinicians when planning eye treatment and confirming the extent of the tumor. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Planck 2013 results. XV. CMB power spectra and likelihood

CERN Document Server

Ade, P.A.R.; Armitage-Caplan, C.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Atrio-Barandela, F.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartlett, J.G.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit, A.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bobin, J.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Boulanger, F.; Bridges, M.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.F.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, L.Y.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Church, S.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Combet, C.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Delouis, J.M.; Desert, F.X.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Dore, O.; Douspis, M.; Dunkley, J.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Ensslin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A.A.; Franceschi, E.; Gaier, T.C.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giardino, G.; Giraud-Heraud, Y.; Gjerlow, E.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J.E.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.; Helou, G.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jewell, J.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kiiveri, K.; Kisner, T.S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lahteenmaki, A.; Lamarre, J.M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Laureijs, R.J.; Lawrence, C.R.; Le Jeune, M.; Leach, S.; Leahy, J.P.; Leonardi, R.; Leon-Tavares, J.; Lesgourgues, J.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Lindholm, V.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; Maffei, B.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Marinucci, D.; Maris, M.; Marshall, D.J.; Martin, P.G.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Matthai, F.; Mazzotta, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Menegoni, E.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Millea, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschenes, M.A.; Molinari, D.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Norgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; O'Dwyer, I.J.; Orieux, F.; Osborne, S.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paladini, R.; Paoletti, D.; Partridge, B.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Paykari, P.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Ponthieu, N.; Popa, L.; Poutanen, T.; Pratt, G.W.; Prezeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Rachen, J.P.; Rahlin, A.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Ricciardi, S.; Riller, T.; Ringeval, C.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Roudier, G.; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rubino-Martin, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Sanselme, L.; Santos, D.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Spencer, L.D.; Starck, J.L.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sureau, F.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Tavagnacco, D.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Turler, M.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Varis, J.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Vittorio, N.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Wehus, I.K.; White, M.; White, S.D.M.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

2014-01-01

We present the Planck likelihood, a complete statistical description of the two-point correlation function of the CMB temperature fluctuations. We use this likelihood to derive the Planck CMB power spectrum over three decades in l, covering 2 = 50, we employ a correlated Gaussian likelihood approximation based on angular cross-spectra derived from the 100, 143 and 217 GHz channels. We validate our likelihood through an extensive suite of consistency tests, and assess the impact of residual foreground and instrumental uncertainties on cosmological parameters. We find good internal agreement among the high-l cross-spectra with residuals of a few uK^2 at l <= 1000. We compare our results with foreground-cleaned CMB maps, and with cross-spectra derived from the 70 GHz Planck map, and find broad agreement in terms of spectrum residuals and cosmological parameters. The best-fit LCDM cosmology is in excellent agreement with preliminary Planck polarisation spectra. The standard LCDM cosmology is well constrained b...

Improved automatic filtering methodology for an optimal pharmacokinetic modelling of DCE-MR images of the prostate